week ending Jun 18

Fed hikes rates 75 basis points, intensifying inflation fight - Federal Reserve officials raised their main interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point — the biggest increase since 1994 — and signaled they will keep hiking aggressively this year, resorting to drastic measures to restrain the rampant inflation they failed to forecast. Slammed by critics for not anticipating the fastest price gains in four decades and then for being too slow to respond to it, Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues on Wednesday intensified their effort to cool prices by lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5% to 1.75%. They projected raising it to 3.4% by year-end, implying another 175 basis points of tightening this year.

Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.75%, most since 1994, amid effort to slow inflation -The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 0.75%, the largest move it has made in a single meeting since 1994.The central bank messaged that further interest rate hikes will come this year, as the Fed leans on higher borrowing costs to dampen demand and work to slowfaster-than-expected inflation.“Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter,” the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement, repeating its commitment to “ongoing increases.”The Fed decision lifts short-term borrowing costs to a target range between 1.50% and 1.75%.In economic projections released Wednesday, the median Fed policymaker expects to further raise interest rates to roughly 3.4% by the end of the year. That would suggest another 1.75% in total rate hikes, spread across the remaining four scheduled policy-setting meetings this year.The Fed is now messaging a much steeper path of rate hikes than it had previously forecast in March (when the median member projected a year-end short-term rate closer to 1.9%).The Fed's "dot plot" now suggests a much more aggressive path for interest rates this year, with benchmark rates expected to hit 3.4% by year-end. (Source: Federal Reserve)The urgency to move faster coincided with Fed policymakers’ expectations that inflation will not abate as fast as they had expected in their March projections. The median Fed policymaker now expects prices to rise by 5.2%, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE), over the course of 2022, a faster pace than the 4.3% it had forecast in March.The central bank also downgraded expectations on other key economic measures, expecting the U.S. economy to grow by only 1.7% this year, compared to the 2.8% it had forecast in March.Fed officials also suggested they could see unemployment rise this year, with the median member now forecasting a 3.7% headline unemployment rate by the end of the year (which would be a notch up from the 3.6% recorded in May).The decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% was an abrupt turn from last week, when markets had largely expected the central bank to follow through on itscommunicated strategy of raising by 0.50%.But a hot inflation report on Friday, showing the fastest pace of price increases since 1981, showed little sign of alleviating price pressures in the month of May. Combined with other economic data showing the worst reading of consumer confidence since the 1970s, the pessimistic outlook pushed the Fed to entertain the idea of abandoning its prior plan.The decision to raise rates by 0.75% on Wednesday was not unanimously agreed to — Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented, with the statement noting that she favored a 0.50% move.The Fed’s economic projections suggests a confidence among policymakers that a more aggressive rate hike path will cool inflation. Although the central bankers raised their expectations on inflation for 2022, the median member of the committee expects to see the pace of headline price increases to cool to 2.6% next year. These forecasts suggest inflation could further in 2024 to 2.2%, much closer to the Fed’s 2% target.

Fed Stops Dillydallying. So OK, Maybe No Softish Landing. Markets on their Own by Wolf Richter -Struggling to re-establish its shredded and ridiculed credibility as inflation fighter, the Fed today concluded the most hawkish Fed meeting in decades. Following the CPI report last week that apparently had blown all doorknobs off inside the Fed’s Eccles Building, everything got moved higher by a bunch: Actual policy rates, projected policy rates by the end of 2022 and 2023, projected inflation rates, and projected unemployment rates. The only thing that got lowered was the projection of economic growth. The FOMC voted to hike all policy rates by 75 basis points, the most hawkish move since 1994, with only one dissenting vote (by Esther George, who wanted a 50 basis point hike):

• Federal funds rate target range, to 1.50% – 1.75%.
• Interest it pays the banks on reserves, to 1.65%.
• Interest it charges on overnight Repos, to 1.75%.
• Interest it pays on overnight Reverse Repos (RRPs), to 1.55%.
• Primary credit rate it charges banks, to 1.75%.

“Clearly, today’s 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his statement at the press conference. But he said that at the next meeting in July, another 75-basis point hike might be on the table.And the Fed will be “looking for compelling evidence” that inflation is moving down before “declaring victory”, Powell said. This phrase, “compelling evidence,” has been cropping up a lot recently among Fed governors. They’re looking for more than just a little squiggle in the line before backing off.This is now fast-moving. Today’s “dot plot” in the Economic Materials showed that all 18 FOMC members who participated in the meeting, expected the Fed to raise its federal funds rate to at least 3% by the end of 2022, with 13 members expecting higher rates. The median projection jumped to 3.4%.The Fed would have to raise its policy rates by another 1.75 percentage points to get to the median projection of 3.4% by the end of this year. The median projection for the policy rate at the end of 2023 rose to 3.8%. For 2024, it dipped to 3.4%.These 3-4% policy rates were unthinkably and impossibly high just a few months ago. It was something the Fed would never ever and could never ever do because of whatever. Now they’re on the table. QT has started this month. The plan was laid out in May. The Fed confirmed today that it is proceeding according to plan. During the phase-in period of June through August, the Fed caps the amount of securities that can roll off the balance sheet at $47.5 billion per month ($30 billion in Treasury securities, $17.5 billion in MBS). Starting in September, the caps will double to a total of $95 billion a month.If not enough Treasury notes and bonds mature during the month to hit the cap, the Fed will make up the difference by allowing short-term Treasury bills to mature without replacement. In other words, the cap is essentially a fixed amount that will come off the balance sheet.The Fed will not sell securities outright at this point, but will allow them to mature without replacement. Most of the reductions for MBS will come from the pass-through principal payments that are forwarded to MBS holders when mortgages are paid off (when the house is sold or the mortgage is refinanced) or are paid down through regular mortgage payments.

Here’s a full recap of the Fed’s 0.75 percentage point rate hike and Powell’s comments -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it is still possible for the central bank to achieve a "soft landing," in which the Fed brings down inflation without causing a recession. "I think what's in the SEP would certainly meet that test," Powell said, referencing the Fed projections that show inflation nearing 2% with inflation just over 4% in 2024. The Fed chair did say that the central bank cannot control all the factors driving inflation, such as oil prices that have been pushed higher by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "I think events of the last few months have raised the degree of difficulty, created great challenges," Powell said. "And there's a much bigger chance now that it will depend on factors that we don't control." The Federal Reserve's updated economic projections show an expected rise in unemployment in the years ahead as the central bank hikes rates to fight inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that may be a worthwhile trade off for a healthy economy. "If you were to get inflation on its way down to 2%, and unemployment up to 4.1%, that's still a historically low level. … 3.6% is historically low in the last century," Powell said. "So a 4.1% unemployment rate, with inflation well on its way to 2%, I think that would be a successful outcome." Powell added that lower inflation is necessary to have a healthy labor market in terms of real wage gains and strength among all demographic groups.Allianz Investment Management's Charlie Ripley said the Fed's more aggressive monetary policy stance should bolster the market, at least in the near term. "Today's announcement confirms the Fed's commitment to fight the inflation battle more aggressively despite the potential aftermath from raising rates at such a rapid pace," the firm's senior investment strategist said. "Overall, Fed policy rates have been out of sync with the inflation story for some time and the aggressive hikes from the Fed should appease markets for the time being." Stocks and bonds rallied as Chairman Jerome Powell answered questions from the media. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were both up at least 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite popped more than 2%. The Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates to bring them to more "normal" levels, said Chair Jerome Powell. The central bank delivered a 75 basis point rate hike at the conclusion of Wednesday's policy meeting because it believed "strong action" was necessary."The federal funds rate, even after this move, is at 1.6%," Powell said. "The committee is moving rates up expeditiously to more normal levels, and we came to the view that we'd like to do a little more front-end loading on that."

FOMC Projections and Press Conference - Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. In March, most participants expected seven rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. Wall Street forecasts are being revised down for 2022 due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic. the war in Ukraine and financial tightening. The FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down to similar growth rates.

• GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP(see table) Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in May. The FOMC increased their projections for the unemployment rate for Q4 2022.
• Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate (see table) Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
• Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation (see table) As of April 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from April 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022. PCE core inflation was up 4.9% in April year-over-year. And the FOMC revised up their projections.
• Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation (see table)

FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 75 bp -Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement:: Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments

 Failure 'not an option': Fed vows all-out fight on inflation - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday pulled the trigger on its biggest interest rate increase in nearly three decades and signaled that it would do whatever it takes to bring inflation under control. The move was a stark escalation for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who just days ago was suggesting a more gradual approach to curbing the hottest price spikes since the early 1980s.Powell adopted a different tone in addressing reporters after the central bank hiked its key borrowing rate three-quarters of a percentage point, the single largest jump since 1994, when Alan Greenspan led the Fed. “The worst mistake we could make would be to fail,” said Powell, who was appointed by President Joe Biden to another four-year term at the helm of the central bank. “It’s not an option.” The Fed’s newly aggressive actions seemed aimed at reassuring the public, which has consistently ranked inflation as among its top concerns. But the policy has also raised fears that the central bank might cause a recession in its bid to tamp down inflation. While the policymakers themselves are hoping to avoid that outcome, they are predicting some economic pain regardless, expecting the unemployment rate — now near modern-era lows at 3.6 percent — to tick up over the next few years. The Fed also projects the U.S. economy will grow 1.7 percent both in 2022 and 2023, a significant downgrade from the 2.8 percent and 2.2 percent rates they forecast in March for those years. Powell said there was still a path to avoiding a full-blown downturn. “We’re not trying to induce a recession,” he said emphatically in response to a reporter’s question about the Fed’s intent. “Let’s be clear about that.” Still, he acknowledged that the central bank is not just withdrawing the extraordinary boost it has given to the economy with ultra-low rates and massive purchases of government securities. It is planning to actively slow growth. The Fed’s belt-tightening is likely to darken an already grim national mood and could lead to a more serious electoral throttling for Biden’s Democrats in this year’s midterms. But the central bank is betting that more assertive steps now will prevent even more economic pain later.

Fed's Waller backs another big rate hike for 'all in' inflation fight (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Saturday became the latest U.S. central banker to pledge a whatever-it-takes approach to fighting inflation, three days after the Fed raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point and signaled more hikes to come. "If the data comes in as I expect, I will support a similar-sized move at our July meeting," Waller told a Society for Computational Economics conference in Dallas. "The Fed is 'all in' on re-establishing price stability." A surge in inflation, which is at its highest level in 40 years, has made hawks of nearly all Fed policymakers, only one of whom dissented earlier this week against what was the central bank's biggest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century. Policymakers currently expect to raise the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate, now in a range of 1.50%-1.75%, to at least 3.4% in the next six months. A year ago, the majority thought the rate would need to stay near zero until 2023. On Friday, the Fed called its fight against inflation "unconditional," and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who had been its most dovish policymaker, declared "we'll do whatever it takes" to bring inflation back down to the central bank's 2% target. Inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is running at more than three times that level. "That's the most important thing I'm worried about," Waller said on Saturday, adding that moving rates quickly up to the neutral level and into restrictive territory is necessary to slow demand and put a check on inflation. That monetary tightening will likely drive unemployment, now at 3.6%, to between 4% and 4.25%, or possibly higher, Waller said, "but my goal is just to slow the economy." Rising worries that Fed rate hikes will cause a recession, he said, "are a bit overblown."

 Can the Fed Kill This Inflation Without Killing Too Many Other Things First? - by Yves Smith Your humble blogger has argued that central banks are not going to be able to do much to address our current very bad and getting worse inflation outbreak. This inflation is not the result of excessive demand, as commonly conceptualized, but a marked, and it sure looks like durable, contraction in productive capacity.Some of that loss is due to Covid. The US has lower labor force participation than before the pandemic, yet unemployment is low and many establishments complain about the difficulty in getting workers. Covid led many, particularly in the medical establishment, to retire early. Covid also got some couples to realize they could get by on one income and they’ve decided they like it that way. Some low wage workers decided they aren’t going back to high risk positions in restaurants and retail. Some got long Covid and can’t work full time. And a million people died, some of them working age. Pilot shortages are the tip of the iceberg of a thinning out among seasoned employees who are hard to replace.We had supply chain bottlenecks and breakage during Covid and that’s still not cleared up. China has been and will still lock down as needed, and the West be damned. Many ports are still a mess.And we have yet to get to the elephant in the room, the Russia sanctions blowback. The US and EU would put even more sanctions on if they were not already scraping the bottom of the barrel….even though Russia is not only not bowed, but coping surprisingly well. The central bank just cut rates again to 9.5%, the level they were at before the war, and is worried about the rouble, now at 58 to the dollar, becoming too strong. As we predicted, car parts are a mess, but the latest Levada poll, from May (and remember Levada is the most anti-Putin pollster in Russia) found that only 16% of respondents reported that the sanctions were causing “very” or “quite” serious problems for their family (the next category was “didn’t create any serious problems”).You can find a vastly more comprehensive and well-documented explanation of where our inflation came from in a Servaas Storm post, Inflation in a Time of Corona and War.But even though the West is suffering far more from collateral damage of the sanctions, most of all higher energy prices, there’s not even a peep in the press about rolling them back.So because our policy-makers refuse to do things like make workplaces less scary for the Covid-cautious, or unjam ports, or climb down and admit they were wrong when business survival and citizens’ lives are at stake, they’ll leave it all to central bankers and their blunt instrument of monetary policy.To reduce things to simple-minded but still pretty accurate terms, since too much demand is not the cause of our inflation, it correspondingly seems likely that central bankers will have to overkill the economy to kill inflation. We’re not the only ones thinking along these lines. The hedge fund manager who writes as Doomberg passed around this tweet: “The amount of demand destruction needed to contain energy inflation will blow up western bond markets WAY before oil crashes.”

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Moving Down --From BofA: We are now tracking 1.5% qoq saar growth for 2Q, down from 2.5% qoq saar previously as retail sales were weak in May. [June 17 estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.8% (qoq ar). (Lowered it yesterday from 3.0%) [June 17 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thesecond quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 16, unchanged from June 15 after rounding. [June 16 estimate]

Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data is as of June 12th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 12.6% from the same day in 2019 87.4% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 9th. Movie ticket sales were at $185 million last week, down about 26% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through June 4th. The occupancy rate was down 12.1% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022. As of June 3rd, gasoline supplied was down 2.6% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, June 10th.

Suze Orman: The 'government overdid it' on COVID stimulus -As the U.S. economy grapples with soaring inflation and rising interest rates that could trigger a recession, the Biden administration is being blamed for overheating the economy with too much stimulus aid in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.In an interview with the Associated Press published Thursday, President Joe Biden called the notion that the federal stimulus package caused inflation "bizarre."Still, some prominent figures, including personal finance expert Suze Orman, have questioned the federal government's decision to spend roughly $5 trillion in pandemic stimulus that included aid for small businesses, expanded unemployment insurance, and a bailout for airlines, among other measures.“I do think the government overdid it in many different ways. I think they should have started to raise interest rates before they did. They waited too long,” Orman told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer in a wide-ranging interview on Monday. “I personally think that we are heading into a recession, a mild one, either at the end of this year or the beginning of next.”With consumer price index (CPI) inflation data reaching levels not seen since 1981, economists and others are considering whether the government went overboard with spending in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a prominent Democrat, predicted COVID aid would spur inflation and told Bloomberg last year it was the “least responsible” macroeconomic policy in the past 40 years.In an interview with Andy Serwer last month, Summers said it's "pretty likely" we'll see a recession in the next two years.To be sure, not every economist agrees that the stimulus spurred inflation. Some experts note that the other parts of the world, including the European Union, have seen steep inflation without large stimulus packages. Moreover, stimulus defenders argue that in the wake of COVID-19 shut-downs, Americans needed the financial boost, which includedthree rounds of stimulus checks totaling $803 billion.Still, the National Bureau of Economic Research found in October 2020 that most of the stimulus money was saved or used to pay off debt. The personal savings rate, calculated by Federal Reserve Economic Data by the St. Louis Fed, peaked during periods of stimulus check disbursements. After the second and third rounds of stimulus payments, the personal savings rate peaked at 19.9% and 26.6%. However, the savings rate declined to 4.4% as of April 2022, suggesting that after initially saving stimulus payments, some Americans opted to spend that money.Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Orman suggested that not all of these checks were necessary.“Many people that I personally know, got stimulus checks," she said. "And the truth of the matter is, they really didn't need them."

Biden strains for a message on deteriorating economy - - Prices keep rising. And the clock keeps ticking. So the White House has started to change up its messaging on inflation, even though President Joe Biden has limited tools at his disposal to battle the crisis. The president stepped up efforts to draw contrasts with Republicans, unleashing a series of new attack lines Tuesday in a speech delivered amid a flurry of sobering headlines on rising costs and interest rates. “America still has a choice to make. A choice between a government by the few, for the few,” Biden said at an AFL-CIO union convention in Philadelphia. “Or a government for all of us – a democracy for all of us, an economy where all of us have a fair shot.” But with the midterms rapidly approaching, voters’ patience appears likely to run out – and the president and party in power stand poised to pay the political price. “The political environment is brutal for Democrats. There are few more economic issues more politically painful than high food and high gas prices and we are heading into high stakes midterms,” said Dan Pfeiffer, former senior advisor to President Barack Obama. “Recognizing that reality trumps messaging, and there is no silver bullet message that makes people feel better about a tough economic situation, the best thing the White House can do right now is show voters that they are trying,” he said. Many of the forces behind rising costs – the pandemic, global stimulus packages, supply chain snarls, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – took place well outside Biden’s control. But the administration has been criticized for being slow to act and for being sluggish in adjusting its messaging. The White House had initially believed that inflation, which began last year, would be transitory and potentially even clear by this summer as voters began to think about November. Then, after that assumption proved faulty, there was belief that it had peaked in April and would soon start declining. But that proved wrong, too. Prices rose 8.6 percent in May compared with a year earlier, the highest level in 40 years, according to the latest consumer price index released Friday. Moreover, prices climbed more quickly last month than they did in April, suggesting the inflationary peak had not yet arrived. As the bad numbers piled up, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly admitted the obvious, saying the administration got it wrong on inflation. The statement, though true, was met with grimaces in the West Wing, where aides noted that most leading forecasters and the Federal Reserve got it wrong, too. Indeed, the task of combating inflation primarily falls to the Fed, which is expected in its meeting Wednesday to hike interest rates, potentially as much as a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point. But it’s unknown how much inflation will slow before November and the problem has consumed Biden’s top aides and has threatened to overwhelm both his domestic and international agendas.

Senators eye $45B defense budget boost --The Senate Armed Services Committee voted 23-3 to pass its version of its fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), proposing to boost defense spending by roughly $45 billion over what President Biden requested. The measure allocates $857.64 billion in fiscal 2023 for national defense, according to a summary of the bill released by the committee. For comparison, the president proposed $813 billion in national defense spending when he unveiled his budget proposal in late March. Of the bill’s top line, $817.33 billion would go the Pentagon alone, while $29.6 billion would go toward the Department of Energy. A separate $10.6 billion would go toward other defense-related activities outside of the legislation’s jurisdiction. The bill now heads to the Senate floor, where the full upper chamber will consider the legislation. The top lines are well above the $802.4 billion that the House Armed Services Committee is poised to consider when it reviews its version of the NDAA next Wednesday. The House bill’s top line would give the Pentagon $772.5 billion, the Department of Energy $29.5 billion and another $400 million for other defense-related activities outside of the Department of Defense. It doesn’t include an additional $11 billion in national defense spending outside of the committee’s jurisdiction. Once the House passes its bill, both versions will then be reconciled during the conference committee process into one bill that the House and Senate will have to pass. Even then, the NDAA is a policy bill that sets funding levels and guides policy, but it does not hold budget power. Therefore, an appropriations bill will still need to be passed. In a summary of the Senate bill, the committee says it approved the $45 billion boost to “address the effects of inflation and accelerate the implementation of the National Defense Strategy.” Inflation quickly emerged as a key debate point when Biden released his proposal for national defense spending earlier this year. Republicans have demanded that Biden increase defense spending for fiscal 2023 by 3 to 5 percent above inflation. The top line also provides additional security assistance to Ukraine, allows for accelerated production of certain munitions, and more funding for additional military construction projects and facilities maintenance.

 SWIFT Dollar Decline - US-led sanctions are inadvertently undermining the dollar’s post-Second World War dominance. The growing number of countries threatened by US and allied actions is forcing victims and potential targets to respond pro-actively. The instant messaging system of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) informs users, both payers and payees, of payments made. Thus, it enables the smooth and rapid transfer of funds across borders.Created in 1973, and launched in 1977, SWIFT is headquartered in Belgium. It links 11,000 banks and financial institutions (BFIs) in more than 200 countries. The system sends over 40 million messages daily, as trillions of US dollars (USD) change hands worldwide.Co-owned by more than 2,000 BFIs, it is run by the National Bank of Belgium, together with the G-10 central banks of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Joint ownership was supposed to avoid involvement in geopolitical disputes.Many parties use USD accounts to settle dollar-denominated transactions. Otherwise, banks of importing and exporting countries would need accounts in each other’s currencies in their respective countries in order to settle payments.US and allied – including European Union (EU) – sanctions against Russia and Belarus followed their illegal invasion of Ukraine. Created during the US-Soviet Cold War, SWIFT remains firmly under Western control. It is now used to block payments for Russian energy and agriculture exports.But besides stopping income flows, it inadvertently erodes USD dominance. As sanctions are increasingly imposed, such actions intimidate others as well. While intimidation may work, it also prompts other actions.This includes preparing for contingencies, e.g., by joining other payments arrangements. Such alternatives may ensure not only smoother, but also more secure cross-border financial transfers.As part of US-led sanctions against the Islamic Republic, the EU stopped SWIFT services to Iranian banks from 2012. This blocked foreign funds transfers to Iran until a compromise was struck in 2016. Unsurprisingly, those not allied to the US want to change the system. Following the 2008-9 global financial crisis, China’s central bank head called for “an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations”.Meanwhile, China’s USD assets have declined from 79% in 2005 to 58% in 2014, presumably falling further since then. More recently, China’s central bank has been progressively expanding use of its digital yuan or renminbi, e-CNY.With over 260 million users, its app is now ‘technically ready’ for cross-border use as no Western bank is needed to move funds across borders. Such payments for imports from China using e-CNY will bypass SWIFT, and CHIPS will not need to clear them.Russia has long complained of US abuse of dollar hegemony. Moscow has tried to ‘de-dollarize’ by avoiding USD use in trade with other BRICS – i.e., Brazil, India, China and South Africa – and in its National Wealth Fund holdings.Last year, Vladimir Putin warned the US is biting the hand feeding it, by undermining confidence in the US-centric system. He warned, “the US makes a huge mistake in using dollar as the sanction instrument”. The scope of US financial payments surveillance and USD payments will decline, although not immediately. Thus, Western sanctions have unwittingly accelerated erosion of US financial hegemony.Besides worsening stagflationary trends, such actions have prompted its targets – current and prospective – to take pre-emptive, defensive measures, with yet unknown consequences.

Would A Price Cap On Russian Oil Help Curb Its Revenue? by Yves Smith Yves here. Perhaps I am missing something, but Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s oil price fixing scheme is an idea only some economists could love. Yellen proposed that US and EU agree to pay only $70 a barrel for Russian oil.Lambert had missed this story and laughed out loud when I told him. Needless to say, this proposal marks a big change, and in a short period of time, from confident stories like How Much Oil Does the U.S. Import From Russia and Why Did Biden Ban It? in the Wall Street Journal in April. As its subhead indicated, the spin then was that Russian supply was marginal” “U.S. had until recently turned to Russian crude to service more isolated coastal markets and keep refineries running at optimal levels.”Yellen’s cover story was that a buyer price cap was necessary to keep the Russian state, which has elected to get most of its revenue from energy price sales, from continuing to make out from current high oil prices. Russia is now making more on foreign oil sales, even with offering a sanctions discount and at reduced volumes, than it did last year.But it’s a pretty remarkable shift to go from trying to punish Russia by not buying its energy to now pressing for a discount because you are obviously indispensable.Oh, and despite being an unfriendly countries, the collective West is trying to get an even bigger break than Russia is giving to its besties, which is $30 a barrel, so the net price to Russia is around $90. Oil has dropped briefly to $100 a couple of times this year, but that was due to China lockdowns, an issue that will at most only be operative intermittently. Indeed, with Turkey eyeing territory in Syria and Israel playing harder ball with Iran, escalation in the Middle East could also push oil prices even higher.The US price scheme is aggressive even in recent historical terms. Oil prices were rising due to “We’re acting like Covid is over” rebound and were solidly above $70 a barrel in the second half of the year. Let us also remember that the US embargoed Russian oil in early March. Since then, the US has been trying to mitigate the impact via releases from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, browbeating Saudi Arabia, and trying to make nice to Venezuela and Iran, which produce very heavy oil. Russia’s crude is moderately “heavy” and well suited to refining diesel and home heating fuel. US and Saudi crude is light and needs to be combined with heavier distillates to make some of the desired end products like diesel (yes, this is a simplification but will do for this purpose). The charm offensive to other oil producers isn’t going very well. For instance, Biden had planned to go to the Middle East in June and among other things, sit down with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. That’s now planned for July, allegedly by Biden due to concerns about the stability of the Israel government and a busy calendar of June visits to Europe. Alexander Mercouris claims it was the Saudis that pushed the meeting back (see here starting at 4:06).

Biden Admin Quietly Urging Companies To Purchase Russian Fertilizer -- Well this is awkward...The Biden administration has been quietly urging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the efforts.The move comes as fears over sanctions have led to a sharp drop in supplies, contributing to the ongoing 'spiraling global food costs.'The effort is part of complex and difficult negotiations underway involving the United Nations to boost deliveries of fertilizer, grain and other farm products from Russia and Ukraine that have been disrupted by President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his southern neighbor.US and European officials have accused the Kremlin of using food as a weapon, preventing Ukraine from exporting. Russia denies that even as it has attacked key ports, blaming the shipment disruptions on sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the invasion. –Bloomberg With Moscow being a key supplier of fertilizer, the US and EU have included exemptions on sanctions against doing business with Russia - however many shippers, banks and insurers have been cautiously staying away out of fear that they might accidentally run afoul of the rules in an expensive lesson. Now, US officials are trying to encourage activity in the space.Exports of Russian fertilizer are notably down 24% YTD.As Bloomberg notes, the new push by Washington underscores the current challenge facing the west - which seeks to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin over the invasion of Ukraine, while also easing pressure on economy-damaging food inflation during an election year in America. Since the war began in February, already-high inflation spiked further - a point Putin regularly makes while railing against sanctions.Earlier this month, the Biden admin sent a representative to UN-led talks with Moscow regarding supply issues - as insufficient deliveries of fertilizer could also negatively affect next year's crops.The Kremlin has insisted that the US provide assurances to global buyers that they won't face sanctions, suggesting it as a condition to unblock any shipments of Ukrainian farm products now.

US Official Admits Russian Energy Sales Outpacing Pre-War Levels --US energy security envoy Amos Hochstein has acknowledged that Russia might be making more revenue from fossil fuels than before its February invasion of Ukraine. Washington has responded with waves of sanctions aiming to crush the Russian economy. Hochstein made the comments during a hearing for the Senate Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation. In response to a question about whether Moscow was making more money now off its fossil fuel sales, Hochstein said, "I can’t deny that. In May, the International Energy Agency said that Russia’s oil revenue was up 50% this year. Hochstein said the White House did not anticipate the spike in oil prices, noting that the demand for oil in 2022 is "far greater, stronger than anyone predicted."Over the past three months, the US and its Western partners have heavily sanctioned Russian energy imports and attempted to pressure the rest of the world to do the same. Beyond Europe, however, the effort has largely been unsuccessful, as countries like India have boosted Russian oil purchases. Hochstein went on to say that the Biden administration believes there will be a "ceiling" on the amount of Russian oil India will import. He did not clarify the White House’s reasoning for that assessment or what the ceiling might be. As Reuters reviews, "The International Energy Agency said in May that Russia's oil revenue was up 50% since the beginning of the year to $20 billion a month, with the EU taking the biggest share of its exports. The EU's ban on Russian oil, expected to take full effect at the end of the year, could cut that revenue."

Biden told Austin, Blinken to tone down remarks supporting Ukraine: report --President Biden told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken in April to tone down their rhetoric in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia, NBC News reported Thursday. The pushback reportedly came after the Pentagon chief said the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to win the war against the Kremlin and that the U.S. wanted a weakened Russiathat could not launch another attack. Blinken then publicly aligned himself with Austin’s comments, sparking a flurry of news reports. “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin said at the time after the Cabinet members visited Kyiv. During a later conference call, Biden told the two officials he thought their remarks went too far and to tone them down, multiple current and former administration officials familiar with the call told NBC. One unidentified official told the network that Biden was concerned that Austin’s words could set unrealistic goals and up the chance Washington could get pulled into a direct conflict with Moscow. “Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of the sources said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.” After a mismanaged and chaotic attack on Ukraine beginning on Feb. 24, Russia in mid-April consolidated its forces for an attack on the country’s eastern Donbas region. The fight has been bloody and is expected to turn into a protracted war, with President Volodymyr Zelensky pleading for more weapons to beat back the invasion and staying firm that no Ukrainian territory be ceded to Russia. But U.S. officials are growing more worried that Ukraine’s views are untenable, saying behind the scenes the Ukrainian president should shift his public position and “dial it back a little bit,” one of seven current U.S. officials, former U.S. officials and European officials told NBC. Experts, U.S. and European officials have voiced a belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin will attempt to claim the Donbas and declare it as Russian territory, with Zelensky then having to negotiate for peace to end the conflict.

White House confirms Biden to meet Saudi crown prince in Middle East - President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia in July on a trip that will include a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a senior administration official told reporters Monday night. The announcement that the president would meet Mohammed had been expected for weeks and has drawn scrutiny from human rights advocates and tacit approval from Democratic allies in Congress. The meeting is part of a wider trip to the Middle East, from July 13 to 16, where the president will also travel to Israel and the West Bank before flying to Jeddah for a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The senior official said that Biden’s meeting with the crown prince will take place as part of engagement with “over a dozen leaders,” to include Saudi King Salman, the official leader of the Kingdom. The president’s face-to-face with Mohammed marks a stark reversal from Biden’s promise on the campaign trail to make the kingdom a “pariah” and to make them “pay the price” over the gruesome killing of the dissident Saudi writer and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. Biden approved the release of a U.S. intelligence report concluding that Mohammed had approved a plot to “capture or kill” Khashoggi — who was lured to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, where he was killed and dismembered. The president imposed bans on dozens of Saudi officials for the writer’s death. The senior official on Monday night said that while the administration sought accountability for Khashoggi’s death, it did not seek to “rupture” relations with the kingdom completely. The official called the crown prince “critical” to extending a cease-fire agreement until at least August in Yemen’s catastrophic seven-year civil war. “While we recalibrate relations, we’re not seeking to rupture relations, because Saudi Arabia has been a strategic partner of the United States for eight decades,” the official said, adding that the administration’s strategy is to raise human rights issues “behind closed doors.”

Biden official meets with China’s top diplomat for four hours in Luxembourg -White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spent more than four hours on Monday meeting with China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Luxembourg to discuss a range of topics, according to a senior administration official. Sullivan reiterated the Biden administration’s commitment to the “one China” policy as well as concerns about China’s “coercive and aggressive actions” across the Taiwan Strait, the official said, and warned against assisting Russia in its war in Ukraine. “The two shared their assessments of U.S.-China relations, including an exchange of views of how each side sees the dynamic between our two countries,” the official said, describing the meeting as “candid, in-depth, substantive, and productive.” Sullivan also raised concerns about China’s recent veto of a U.S. resolution at the United Nations Security Council that would have imposed new sanctions on North Korea following recent missile launches. “Jake made very clear that this is an area where we believe the United States and China should be able to work together,” the official said. The meeting came just days after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Gen. Wei Fenghe, China’s minister of national defense, in Singapore and warned Beijing over its aggressive actions toward Taiwan. Wei later criticized the U.S. in public remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, accusing the U.S. of “smearing” China and warning against confrontation. President Biden also recently took his first trip as president to Asia, where he unveiled a new framework to guide U.S. economic involvement in the Indo-Pacific that is widely viewed as an effort to counter China’s growing influence. During that trip, Biden pledged to defend Taiwan militarily, a remark that signaled a shift in U.S. policy that the White House quickly sought to clarify. The White House characterized Sullivan’s meeting with Yang as part of the administration’s broader effort to “responsibly” manage competition between the U.S. and China.

Western Self-Destruction Continues: US Eyepoking China, US Failed Muscling of Latin America, EU Commission Schemes to Admit Ukraine. To What End? by Yves Smith - We’ll try to keep this post at a high level, since each of the three fresh examples of actual or expected own goals are part of a much longer list. But it’s baffling to see incompetence and hubris become a routine part of geopolitics, Western style.The first is the continued US eyepoking of China, which began with the first US-China summit under Biden at US invitation in Alaska. It produced what by international standards was close to a public row. Since then, we were listing new jabs almost daily in Links, although they appear to have become less frequent after the war in Ukraine broke out.Mind you, there are reasons for the US to be concerned about China, and not just of the “declining power threatened by upstart” sort. China has a large population and not enough domestic resources, particularly food and energy, to provide for them, let alone to support a further rise in living standards (mind you, the world can’t support the Chinese population living at a Western level absent radical conservation and other efforts to reduce commodities consumption). Focusing on Chinese acquisitiveness, by implication at the expense of other developing economies, could be a usefully rallying point, particularly if the West were to get serious about belt-tightening, or at least conservation.But instead the US provokes China above all over Taiwan. Aside from the fact that it’s the fastest way to get China riled up, it’s hard to see the point. The deliberately ambiguous position of the West on Taiwan heretofore has allowed us to trade with both parties, if you conceptualize them as operating independently. I haven’t heard of a Taiwan lobby in the US with meaningful clout. Right now, the US arms merchants have plenty of buy orders coming in thanks to the need for the NATO members, and to some degree the US, thanks to the need to restock and update stores depleted by the Ukraine conflict.Maybe the goal is to get neighbors like Japan and South Korea nervous and therefore have then cling to us. But it’s pretty clear that the US is stoking a conflict, and why should I be happy about the prospect of being dragged in?Let’s contrast two sets of stenography from the Shangri-La Security Summit in Singapore, the first from the staunchly neocon Financial Times: [China’s defense minister General] Wei [Fenghe] and [US defense secretary Lloyd] Austin were attending the forum at a time when Sino-US relations are in their worst state since the nations normalised ties in 1979, and with anxiety rising about possible Chinese military action against Taiwan.Those tensions were on display over two days in Singapore, as both sides expressed concerns over the other’s activities. Austin accused the Chinese military of conducting dangerous aerial and maritime manoeuvres, while Wei described the US as an arrogant hegemon that was forming anti-China blocs under the guise of multilateralism. Now to the Chinese house organ Global Times: The Chinese armed forces will fight to the very end if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, said the Chinese defense chief in a speech delivered at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday. Chinese analysts said this is the strongest warning China has sent to the US, as Washington has frequently used the Taiwan question to provoke China and encourage the separatist authorities on the island to worsen the region’s security situation….On the Taiwan question, Wei said Taiwan is part of China, and the Taiwan question is China’s internal affair. “China will definitely realize its reunification.”From the Trump administration to Biden’s, the US has continually used Taiwan question to serve its strategy of containing China, such as instigating the Taiwan separatist authorities to gain a diplomatic presence, which challenges the globally recognized one-China principle; and increasing arms sales, sending warships to enter waters around the island to disrupt the reunification process. Meanwhile, some US Congress members and officials, and even the House speaker, have visited or planned to visit the island, sending the wrong signals to the separatists and challenging the political foundation of China-US relations.

U.S. to sell up to 45 mln bbls oil from reserve as part of historic release (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Energy on Tuesday said it was selling up to 45 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the Biden administration's previously announced, largest-ever release from the stockpile. Deliveries of crude from the SPR sale would take place from Aug. 16 through Sept. 30, the Energy Department said. The Biden administration said in late March it would release a record 1 million barrels of oil per day of oil for six months from the SPR, held in a series hollowed-out salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. The release was meant to help control oil prices that spiked after Russia, one of the world's top petroleum producers, invaded Ukraine and as the West imposes sanctions on Moscow. Prices for global benchmark Brent crude have marched higher since the March 31 announcement to trade above $120 a barrel. The rise has come as few global oil producers have spare capacity while consumers emerging from the pandemic drive fuel demand. Biden administration officials have said the oil price could be higher if the SPR had not been tapped. But the release has also driven the level of the reserve to the lowest point since 1987, adding to worries about tight global oil markets despite the United States having more in the stockpile than required under international agreements. Oil contracts from a previous SPR sale announced on May 24 were awarded to nine companies, including Valero , Exxon Mobil and Marathon Petroleum, the Energy Department said.

Biden tells oil companies in letter 'well above normal' refinery profit margins are 'not acceptable' - President Joe Biden on Wednesday called on U.S. oil refining companies to produce more, saying they need to help alleviate the burden of high prices on consumers."At a time of war – historically high refinery profit margins being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable," the president said in a letter to oil companies including Exxon Mobil and Chevron."[C]ompanies must take immediate actions to increase the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined product," the letter added.Biden's call comes as sky-high energy costs add to inflationary concerns across the economy. The national average for a gallon of gas crossed $5 over the weekend for the first time on record, according to AAA.The national average now stands at $5.014, which is 54 cents more than a month ago, and $1.94 more than last year.Refiners can't just ramp up output, with utilization rates already above 90%. Additionally, some refiners are now being reconfigured to make alternate products like biofuel.Refining capacity has dropped since the pandemic took hold, which is a factor in the rapid advance of fuel prices. Demand has returned as economies restart and people travel once again, but supply remains tight.Loss of Russian refined products has exacerbated the imbalance, with Europe now looking elsewhere for fuel.Biden said that his administration is prepared to use "all reasonable and appropriate Federal Government tools and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity and output in the near term."

Big Oil windfall tax proponents ‘encouraged’ by Biden letter -Congressional Democrats who have pushed for a windfall profits tax on oil companies said Wednesday that they’re encouraged by similar rhetoric coming from President Biden. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), the House sponsor of one of two such bills, said on a press call that he was “encouraged by the president’s leadership on this, and we’ve had people in the White House say they’re considering the idea.” “The president has written a strong letter recently to the oil executives and become more vocal on the issue,” Khanna added. “So I see momentum for the idea.” In a letter this week, Biden called on oil executives to increase production of refined products, saying the industry’s historically high profits are “worsening the pain” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to energy markets. “Your companies and others have an opportunity to take immediate actions to increase the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined product you are producing and supplying to the United States market,” Biden wrote. Khanna called the idea of a windfall profits tax “common sense” and a “mainstream, reasonable proposal.” Although the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has spearheaded the proposals, he noted that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government has imposed a similar tax in the United Kingdom. “There’s no reason we can’t do this in the United States,” he said. “When we did something similar in 1980, it led to a decrease in prices, and actually an increase in production for the first few years in the 1980s. If you look at the graphs of the prices and production in the early 1980s, this argument of how it’s going to have a negative effect is just not true.” Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) added that “we also have to be aware that corporate profiteering is happening across the entire economy,” noting his own introduction with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) of complementary legislation to impose a 95 percent emergency tax on “any big price-gouger.’

Dems have a new target in gas price blame game: Refiners - Democrats are ramping up their rhetoric on gas prices, accusing oil companies of failing to increase production amid surging demand.President Joe Biden yesterday called on seven oil companies to bolster refining capacity while threatening emergency powers. At the same time, congressional Democrats urged passage of a so-called windfall tax on oil companies’ record profits.Biden also met yesterday with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to discuss energy prices, inflation, deficit reduction and prescription drug costs, four issues at play in a revived reconciliation package.The escalation on oil companies appears to be aimed at spurring production from the industry as the Biden administration and congressional Democrats struggle to find a silver-bullet solution for a problem with multiple, cascading causes.“Oil companies set oil prices; nobody else does,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) on a press call with reporters to promote his bill to apply a windfall tax on oil companies’ profits.“America’s big oil companies chose to follow the artificial international cartel price, rather than do market-based cost-plus pricing,” he added. “And the result they can’t deny, because they’re reporting it to their shareholders, is massive, massive, massive excess profits.”His bill, S. 3802, would offer consumers a quarterly rebate out of the revenue raised from the windfall profits of major oil companies that produce or import at least 300,000 barrels of oil per day. Democrats estimate that the tax could raise as much as $40 billion annually (E&E Daily, March 31).The sponsor of the House version of the bill, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), said consumers are getting a raw deal.“You have these oil companies making record profits at a time of a national emergency, and the people who are getting fleeced are the American consumers,” he said. “What this bill says is that you can’t charge obscene amounts of money for oil to enrich shareholders, enrich Wall Street, enrich executives at the expense of ordinary Americans at the pump.”Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said he is preparing another proposal to tax profits from oil companies that are not being reinvested into workforce training or more production. The proposal would include a 21 percent tax on profits deemed excessive for companies making over $1 billion.“If an oil company is training their workers or buying equipment, that’s fine, but what records show is that they are using money to jack up profits and pay off their wealthy shareholders,” Wyden told reporters. “And that’s what we are looking to stop.”The calls for windfall taxes come as Biden is pressing oil companies to bolster refining capacity.In letters to major oil companies yesterday, first reported by Axios, Biden said he is considering using emergency powers to ramp up refinery output. He also called for a summit of the oil industry with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm to talk through ways to bolster production and reduce prices.Democrats largely backed the White House’s new approach to keep the pressure on the industry, especially as refining capacity has declined globally since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said that “oil companies seem comfortable with the current imbalance,” which he said is keeping prices high. “The president’s efforts are a good start to shaking that up,” he added.

Why Biden's refinery push may run into trouble - - President Joe Biden raised the stakes in his campaign against high fuel prices yesterday, calling on U.S. refiners to cut their profit margins and help consumers who are struggling with energy costs to pay their bills. The White House also suggested the president could use “all reasonable and appropriate federal government tools” to increase refining capacity in order to get record gasoline prices down, including the Defense Production Act to order refiners to bring some of their shuttered plants back online. “We’re saying that the president has used it before, and he’s willing to do that again,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing when asked about the Cold War-era law and whether the president would use it to increase capacity. “We know where to put the blame: on the war. But oil companies, they have — oil refineries, they have a responsibility too. What they have been doing is taking advantage of the war,” Jean-Pierre said. But analysts and oil-price watchers said there’s little the Biden administration — or the industry itself — can do to cut into the high profit margins at refiners. The lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine are likely to last into next year, they say. Biden sent letters this week to the heads of the seven biggest U.S. refiners, saying current profits are “unacceptable” and calling for Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm to hold an emergency meeting on fuel prices (E&E News PM, June 15). The president pointed out that gasoline prices have risen from about $4.25 a gallon in March to $5 a gallon this week, even though oil prices have stayed relatively stable at about $120 a barrel. Prices have risen by about $1.70 a gallon since the beginning of the year. A big factor in the change has been the profit margin that companies get for refining crude into gasoline and diesel, also known as the refining margin or the crack. “There is no question that Vladimir Putin is principally responsible for the intense financial pain the American people and their families are bearing,” Biden wrote. “Historically high refinery profit margins are increasing that pain.” The letters were sent to Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Phillips 66, BP America, Shell, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. The Biden administration and the oil industry largely agree on the roots of the price spikes. In the last three years, more than 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity has been taken offline because of the pandemic and extreme weather, about 5 percent of the previous total. As the pandemic began to ease, demand for fuel shot up, and there were fewer refineries to meet the need. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a double-whammy for fuel prices. International sanctions barred many companies and countries from buying Russian oil, which sent the price of crude higher. And Russia was also a major exporter of diesel fuel and other refined fuels, which was also blocked by sanctions. As a result, the remaining refineries in the U.S. are running at more than 90 percent of their capacity and reaping record profits. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a research note last week that refiners “have the kind of opportunity they wait decades for.”

Exxon Mobil, Chevron push back on Biden blaming industry for oil prices - ExxonMobil and Chevron released statements this week saying the Biden administration could be doing more to address oil prices as the president has gone after the companies for making large profits while gas prices spike. On Tuesday, President Biden slammed oil executives in a letter saying they had unacceptably high profit margins while regular Americans are suffering and calling on the industry to work with the administration to address increased prices from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We understand the significant concerns around higher fuel prices currently faced by consumers around the country, and the world. We share these concerns, and expect the Administration’s approach to energy policy will start to better reflect the importance of addressing them,” Chevron said in a statement targeting Biden. ExxonMobil offered short- and long-term solutions for high oil prices in response. The company said emergency measures “such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies” could be used to address short-term concerns. Long-term policies could include “streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines,” it suggested. Chevron said that since Biden got into office, the administration has relayed that it will “impose obstacles to our industry delivering energy resources the world needs.” Both companies highlighted in statements measures they have taken during this time where Americans are seeing the highest gas prices in years. Chevron said it will be increasing Permian Basin production by more than 15 percent this year. ExxonMobil says it has increased refining capacity to process U.S. light crude by around 250,000 barrels a day. After the pandemic, ExxonMobil also stressed it borrowed $30 billion to prepare for the post-pandemic increase in oil demand.

White House Weighs Fuel Export Limits -Top Biden administration officials are weighing limits on exports of fuel as the White House struggles to contain gasoline prices that have topped $5 per gallon. Discussions around capping gasoline and diesel exports have picked up in recent days, as President Joe Biden intensified his criticism of soaring oil company profits, said people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to describe private conversations. Limits under consideration would fall short of a complete ban on foreign sales of petroleum products, with gasoline exports averaging 755,000 barrels a day so far this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s up from 681,000 barrels a day during the same period in 2021. The discussion comes as White House officials consider an array of options for taming gasoline prices that pose an increasing political risk for Biden and Democrats struggling to maintain control of the House and Senate during the November midterm elections. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday the president is open to using emergency wartime powers under the Defense Production Act to “lower costs at the pump.” It wasn’t immediately clear how advanced the discussions are; at least one person was told any new export controls are not imminent. An export ban could conflict with other geopolitical priorities. Biden has repeatedly highlighted the US commitment to help ensure European allies have sufficient energy supplies amid the war in Ukraine. US restrictions on diesel exports to Europe could create new friction with allies overseas as they wean off of Russian supplies. And analysts have said export limits are unlikely to lower the price of gasoline in the long run. A White House spokesman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is set to meet with oil refiners June 23 on the issue, according to people familiar with the plan. Biden directed Granholm to hold the session and asked US oil companies to provide her with “concrete ideas that would address the immediate inventory, price and refining capacity issues.” Other actions that have been discussed in recent weeks include waiving gasoline from anti-smog rules that require low-volatility fuel in the summer, two people said. The shift could reduce costs by allowing fuel blenders to mix in lower-cost butane. Staff from the National Economic Council have considered legal avenues for restricting exports, including possibly under the 2015 law that unleashed overseas sales of crude, one person said. If imposed, any limits could be calibrated to prior export levels, one person said. That approach would effectively limit exports to ensure future increases in fuel production stay within the US. There is no apparent explicit presidential authority to ban oil products exports, but the president could tap vast emergency powers, ClearView Energy Partners LLC said in a research note.

The U.S. is still importing Russian oil despite the ban, report says - Less than two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S.banned the import of Russian fossil fuels like oil and natural gas—a major source of funding for the war. But as the war drags on, some Russian oil is still making it to the United States, according to a new report that tracks the flow of fossil fuels from Russia.India has quickly increased the amount of Russian oil that it buys, and some Indian refineries have been re-exporting refined oil products to both the U.S. and Europe. “We can see crude oil shipments going into refineries that take Russian oil, and then we can see where the stuff goes that they produce,” says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Helsinki-based nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which produced the new report. The exact amount that has reached the U.S. is unknown, but the the report notes that several tankers have come to the U.S. from India since the war began, likely including Russian crude, and more are on the way.The loophole could be closed by making refineries that take Russian cargo ineligible to sell to the U.S. “That would have an impact,” Myllyvirta says. “That would face every one of those refiners with a choice…it’s a business decision to take whether you keep taking on Russian cargo even if that makes it unacceptable for you to ship to the U.S. market.” In the European Union, most Russian oil imports will be banned by the end of the year. Lithunia, Finland, and Estonia have already cut their imports from Russia by more than half. While Russia has other customers, the EU could potentially impact some of them as well, because oil delivered to India and the Middle East travels on tankers from European countries. A sanction on those ships could make deliveries drop. More sanctions recently introduced from the insurance industry make it harder to insure shipments from Russia, which could impact other buyers like China.Russian oil now sells for around 30% less than oil from other sources—but because of the huge increase in global oil prices, it’s still making more money than it did last year. (Russia’s finance minister recently went on TV to announce that despite sanctions, the country expected to make as much 14 billion euros more this year than last year, and some of that would go to the “special operation” in Ukraine.) In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned 93 billion euros from fossil fuel sales, the report says.If countries can accelerate the move away from fossil fuels in general, it could help counter the impact of the steep rise in oil prices. The EU is ramping up renewable electricity now, and some countries are adding new support to help homes become more efficient and add heat pumps instead of traditional furnaces. In the U.S., Biden recently said that he would use the Defense Production Act to speed up the production of solar panels and heat pumps.“Governments need to double down their efforts to fully sanction and ban all purchases, shipments and services for Russian fossil fuels immediately,” Svitlana Romanko, campaign lead for Stand With Ukraine, said in a statement with the release of the report. “They must create a plan to scale up renewable energy and energy efficiency as soon as possible and rapidly phase out oil, gas, and coal everywhere. We can save lives and bring peace to Ukraine by drying up Putin’s income streams and by the radical decarbonization of our societies.”

A Hotter, Poorer, and Less Free America - The Atlantic In the next few weeks, Senate Democrats could fall short—for arguably the third time in 30 years—of passing a climate deal. What will that mean for the planet and the country? For the past 18 months, Senate Democrats have been trying to find a climate deal acceptable to all 50 of their members. The main obstacles, so far, have been Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the owner of a coal-trading company, who wants any deal to reduce the federal budget deficit, and Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who refuses to increase tax rates, the easiest way to satisfy Manchin’s deficit-reduction goal. Senators are now back at the negotiating table, trying to work within the rules Manchin has insisted on.But their timeline is dwindling. Last month, an environmental lobbyist told me that if the talks did not produce a framework deal by Memorial Day, then he didn’t think they would succeed at all. No such deal came together. Now only about 17 working days remain before Congress’s August recess. Reconciliation, the parliamentary procedure that senators use to pass legislation with 51 votes, gobbles up floor time, so even if Manchin does agree to a deal, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may not be able to get it to a final vote before the clock runs out.So it seems possible, even probable, that sometime in the next three or four weeks, Schrodinger’s climate deal will turn out to have been dead all along. Democrats may not admit defeat until the last day of September, when this year’s reconciliation resolution expires.At that point, the record will be clear. Even though President Joe Bidendescribed climate change as one of the country’s “four historic crises” during the campaign, his administration—like the Obama administration before it—will have failed to pass a climate bill. Come November, Democrats will likely lose one or both houses of Congress. And the United States will stumble into a fourth decade without significant legislative climate policy—or even a coherent energy policy.So for the sake of mental preparation, if nothing else, it’s worth asking: What will happen then? Over the past few days, I’ve asked this question of energy analysts and climate scholars.Some of them have found it too depressing to contemplate. Others have shrugged. Even setting the legislative uncertainty aside, this year has been one of the most destabilizing moments for energy markets this century. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has inaugurated a new price regime for fossil fuels: Oil is now trading at all-time highs in most major currencies, and America’s liquid-natural-gas exports are helping create a single, global price for the commodity. Even coal prices are soaring. “Who the hell knows?” Danny Cullenward, the policy director at the think tank CarbonPlan, told me. “My crystal ball is cloudier than it’s been in a long time.”But we can make some safe bets. If Congress fails to pass climate legislation, the effects won’t be felt immediately outside of a few areas. (They may include fossil-fuel prices, which could stay elevated for longer.) But over the coming decade, the world will wind up a hotter, poorer place. Carbon emissions will remain high, and the basic framework of the Paris Agreement on climate change may start to crumble.

Reconciliation redux? Pelosi, Schumer huddle with Biden - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) huddled with President Joe Biden yesterday afternoon to discuss a host of issues related to inflation that sound a lot like the contours of a potential reconciliation package. “They discussed their plans for fighting the global problem of inflation that is affecting every major economy, such as bringing down prescription drug and energy costs, and adding to the historic deficit reduction we have accomplished,” the White House said in a readout of the meeting. Prescription drugs, clean energy and deficit reduction have emerged as central tenets in the new reconciliation push underway by Senate Democrats to attract the support of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), whose opposition killed the House-passed, $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better Act” late last year. The White House readout did not specifically say the meeting was about reconciliation. Democrats in both chambers are working to advance legislation to address high costs in food and energy, though there is slim chance those measures pass the Senate. Manchin and his staff met with Schumer on Tuesday in the latest talks between the two lawmakers. Both declined comment following the meeting. Manchin has suggested he would support a package that would bring down the costs of prescription drugs while also unleashing a host of clean energy tax credits seen as critical to decarbonizing the electric sector. Those provisions must be accompanied by deficit reduction provisions, Manchin has insisted. Democrats had hoped to resurrect a deal on reconciliation by the Memorial Day recess, but the holiday passed without major action. A lengthy August recess looms over the congressional calendar. The White House summit comes as the solar industry is attempting to rally support for action for reconciliation and its host of provisions to support the deployment of renewable technology as well as the domestic manufacturing of clean energy components. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) announced that some two dozen solar companies executives are spreading across Congress this week to lobby on the reconciliation bill. “Solar business leaders are in town to demonstrate to lawmakers the type of investments and economic growth that can come if Congress acts,” SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a statement. “As the inflation pinch tightens, these are common-sense steps that can lower energy costs for all Americans.”

 Pelosi: Social spending and climate package is ‘alive’ --Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Thursday that negotiations on a massive social spending and climate package remain active despite the opposition from Senate centrists that stopped the legislation in its tracks last year. The Speaker emphasized that House Democrats, who passed a roughly $2 trillion reconciliation package in November, are essentially sidelined as Senate leaders seek to continue the delicate talks with the centrist holdouts. But a day after meeting with President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the White House to discuss the economy, Pelosi said there’s still a chance of enacting some slimmed-down version of the House legislation this year. “Reconciliation is a Senate matter. We passed our bill, we made our views known. And that is a closely held negotiation on the Senate side,” Pelosi said during a press briefing in the Capitol. “Suffice to say that we expressed our interest in the timing, when it would happen. But we did not get into the details.” “It’s alive,” she added. “I would say that.” Pelosi declined to reveal any details about the White House talks, but expressed some hope that whatever proposal might emerge will extend enhanced premium subsidies for millions of patients under ObamaCare. Those subsidies, adopted last year under Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, are scheduled to expire at the end of 2022 — an occurrence that vulnerable House Democrats are scrambling to prevent. “There are certain concerns that we have about subsidies in the health care bill and the rest, which may or may not be in the negotiation,” Pelosi said. “But we shall see.” Pelosi and House Democrats had passed their version of the enormous reconciliation package late last year after months of tense talks between liberals and moderates over the particulars of the legislation. The social spending bill includes a host of policies designed to help working families that Democrats have sought, in some cases, for decades. The list includes child care subsidies, universal preschool, paid family leave, renewable energy tax incentives and extensions of both the expanded child tax credit and enhanced ObamaCare subsidies. The bill represented the core of Biden’s successful campaign message in 2020, but it hit a brick wall in the Senate, where centrist Democrats — most notably Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) — balked at the size and scope of the benefits. Manchin said the new spending was particularly concerning amid the national spike in inflation, which he fears will be exacerbated by another round of federal stimulus.

House passes biofuels, conservation bill in partisan split - House lawmakers approved legislation today to boost biofuels, expand farmland conservation and encourage more U.S. production of fertilizer, but Republicans dismissed the Democratic majority’s claims that the package could help farmers and consumers grappling with inflation.The bill, H.R. 7606, called the “Lower Food and Fuel Costs Act,” would lift seasonal restrictions on the sale of fuel that’s 15 percent ethanol, pay for more equipment to distribute and store higher-ethanol fuel, and provide additional help to farmers for managing manure on livestock operations. Approved on a largely partisan vote of 221-204, it combines a handful of bills, some of which had passed the Agriculture Committee in bipartisan fashion.The package would provide incentives to expand production of fertilizer in the United States, which sponsors said could avert the types of price spikes farmers are now seeing. And it would create a task force on food supply chains, with the aim of tackling future scarcity and inflation.House Agriculture Chair David Scott (D-Ga.) highlighted his effort to wrap Republican-led bills into the overall package, citing “extremely important bipartisan participation.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) touted the legislation during her weekly press conference. But Republican lawmakers rejected that assessment, noting that Democrats had included a meatpacking-related bill that divided the committee along partisan lines. Agriculture ranking member Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania said the package wouldn’t ease inflation in fuel and other goods, even though GOP lawmakers have co-sponsored some of the provisions on E15, conservation and grants to encourage expanded livestock and poultry processing. “This bill does nothing in the immediate to lower food and fuel prices,” Thompson said. A major obstacle to Republican support was Democrats’ inclusion of a bill by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) to create a special federal investigator to dig into alleged anti-competitive behavior by meatpacking companies. Thompson and other Republican lawmakers cast that provision as an attack on agriculture — although it has support from the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, Spanberger said — and as unnecessary, given the Justice Department’s ongoing inquiry of its own.

House GOP doubts panel's climate focus amid dire warnings -Climate change and decades of industrialized food production are hurting U.S. agriculture, witnesses told the House Agriculture Committee yesterday at a hearing on the role of research in battling the crisis. Grain yields are already falling in the U.S., and American agriculture’s heavy reliance on chemicals to boost crop production is making farming less sustainable in some ways, a variety of witnesses said. Yesterday’s hearing highlighted the challenges facing American agriculture as Congress begins crafting the 2023 farm bill, which will authorize programs across the Department of Agriculture for five years. And while lawmakers in both parties said they support more research, promoting or discouraging certain farm practices remains divisive and will shape aspects of the forthcoming legislation. Republicans continue to support the use of chemicals in agriculture while bemoaning rising prices. At a later press conference, top Agriculture Republicans unveiled a bill that would ease federal agriculture regulations with the goal of lowering prices. At the hearing, some of the most potentially alarming testimony came from Benjamin Houlton, a professor of ecology and global development at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., who said researchers there found that U.S. grain yields are 20 percent lower due to climate change than they would have been without that influence — the equivalent of seven years of production. That decline could double by 2050, he said, along with other types of farming yields in the U.S. and around the world, just as a growing population needs more food. “We are already witnessing the devastating impact of climate change on food production in the U.S. and worldwide,” Houlton said, adding that further research into cutting greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering carbon can turn that situation around. The disturbing assessment contrasts to huge gains in U.S. farm production over the decades — nearly tripling since the 1940s, said Rep. Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania, the top Republican on the committee — even as farmers have needed less land, fewer animals and less feed to establish that record.

Supreme Court under pressure to punt climate case - In a one-sentence, unsigned opinion yesterday, the Supreme Court disposed of a legal fight related to the Biden administration’s change of course on a Trump-era rule that made it harder for immigrants to obtain green cards. Some lawmakers and legal observers have urged the justices to bestow the same fate on the West Virginia v. EPA battle over a climate regulation that — after two administration changes, years of legal wrangling and a transformation of the power sector — does not currently exist. The Supreme Court dismissed Arizona as improvidently granted in a rarely executed move sometimes known as a DIG, finding that it should not have gotten involved in the first place. During oral argument in the EPA climate case, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar urged the Supreme Court to do the same with West Virginia — a point that was met with some pushback, including from Justice Stephen Breyer, a member of the court’s liberal wing. West Virginia could be decided as soon as next week.A broad ruling against EPA could dismantle the agency’s regulatory authority and has the potential to ripple across the rest of the federal government (Climatewire, June 13).“As the U.S. Solicitor General explained, there’s currently no regulation in place that puts costs on any petitioner,” said Dena Adler, a research scholar at the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law, after the Feb. 28 argument in West Virginia (Climatewire, March 1). “The Clean Power Plan did not spring to life after the most recent decision in this case. Given the absence of any current regulation, it would make sense to dismiss the case as improvidently granted.”West Virginia arrived before the nation’s highest bench last year after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit struck down the Trump administration rule that gutted the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.The D.C. Circuit decision came one day before Biden took office, and his EPA said it would write a fresh rule to curb power plant emissions as the utility sector had met the Clean Power Plan’s goals more than a decade in advance, even though the regulation never took effect.Republican-led states and coal companies petitioned the Supreme Court to hear their plea to stop EPA from imposing systemwide emissions requirements on power producers, and the justices, who reject nearly all petitions that come their way, agreed.Their decision shocked legal observers, who largely agreed that the move was the direct result of the court’s recent shift from a 5-4 to a 6-3 conservative majority.Large investor-owned utilities — some of the very companies that would be subject to EPA’s rule — have urged the Supreme Court to hand back a decision favorable to the agency.Other parties have called on the justices to reach no decision at all.“At this time, EPA is not regulating CO2 from existing coal-fired power plants at all,” four prominent Democratic lawmakers wrote in a Jan. 24 amicus brief. “The Court does not have the authority to review future, potential, or hypothetical administrative regulations.”The lawmakers — Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts — said any decision the justices reach on the merits of West Virginiawould be a “usurpation of power” in violation of the Constitution.In a separate amicus brief, 192 House and Senate lawmakers cited the filing led by Whitehouse, saying they “share these concerns and hereby endorse the view that this case should be dismissed as having been improvidently granted.”

Chevron doctrine survives Supreme Court scrutiny - The Supreme Court avoided a major overhaul to regulatory law in its ruling this morning in a complicated Medicare case.In a unanimous opinion led by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the court struck down a 2018 Department of Health and Human Services rule that reduced Medicare reimbursements for prescription drugs for hospitals serving low-income communities — but did so without overturning or even mentioning Chevron doctrine, a key principle in environmental law.Opponents of Chevron had asked the court to use the Medicare case as a vehicle to reverse the doctrine and appeared to hope that the six-justice conservative wing would find the votes to do so. “I suspect that the justices are not eager to invite more criticism that they are an activist court, so they will continue to duck that issue when it is not necessary to decide it,” said Robert Percival, director of the environmental law program at the University of Maryland.In the coming weeks, the Supreme Court — which saw its conservative majority grow from 5-4 to 6-3 during the Trump administration — is expected to issue controversial rulings on hot-button topics including abortion rights, gun safety and climate change.On its face, the Medicare case was about an HHS rule that slashed drug discounts by about $1.6 billion annually for a group of hospitals without collecting data on drug acquisition costs, as required by statute.When the case came before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the majority appliedChevron deference to determine that the regulation was reasonable.Kavanaugh noted in his decision today that the Supreme Court had used “the traditional tools of statutory interpretation” to come to the opposite conclusion.After the Supreme Court agreed to review the D.C. Circuit ruling, the property rights-focused Pacific Legal Foundation submitted an amicus brief urging the justices to use the case as an opportunity to topple precedent set by the 1984 case Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council, which said courts should defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretation of ambiguous statutes.During oral argument last year in the Medicare case, only three of the Supreme Court’s conservative justices appeared interested in accepting the invitation to overturn Chevron (Greenwire, Nov. 30, 2021).“While the Supreme Court’s unanimous decision is a victory for strict statutory construction, it’s disappointing that the Supreme Court did not address the elephant in the room of Chevron deference,” Pacific Legal Foundation attorney Daniel Ortner wrote in an email.“Deference leads agencies to abuse their power as HHS did here and encourages courts to defer to their interpretations,” he continued. “So long as deference persists, ordinary citizens will continue to be deprived of their liberty and an opportunity for an impartial chance at justice.”

Federal judge in Texas shot down Biden’s immigration rule, but didn’t order him to follow the law - Last week a federal district court judge in Texas vacated the Sept. 30, 2021, Biden administration memorandum (known as “the Final Memorandum”) that established guidelines for the enforcement of civil immigration law. In a decision dated June 10, 2022, the judge declared the memorandum arbitrary and capricious, contrary to law, and failing to observe the rule making provisions in the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). But the judge denied a request from the states that brought the suit for a permanent injunction ordering the administration to comply with the Immigration and Nationality Act’s (INA) mandatory statutory detention provisions. The decision isn’t about migrants in general, or even migrants who are in the United States illegally: It’s about whether the administration should have complied with the APA’s rulemaking requirements instead of just issuing a memorandum, and whether the guidelines violate the mandatory detention provisions in INA sections 1226(c) and 1231(a)(2). The guidelines The “Final Memorandum” restricts enforcement actions to migrants who pose a threat to national security, public safety, or border security. It includes extensive, continuous training to ensure that immigration enforcement officers know the guidelines, and it requires the collection of data on their enforcement actions to confirm that they are following them. The judge found that the guidelines leave out significant deportation grounds, such as migrants convicted of crimes of moral turpitude, drug offenses, multiple offenses with an aggregate sentence of confinement of five years or more, and certain firearms offenses. They also leave out migrants who are traffickers of controlled substances, who participate in the commercialized sex industry, who served in foreign governments and committed particularly severe violations of religious freedom, who participate in the human trafficking industry, and who engage in money laundering — and migrants subject to final deportation orders.To be subject to judicial review under the APA, the Final Memorandum must be a “final agency action.” To constitute a final agency action, two conditions must be satisfied: First, the action must mark the consummation of the agency’s decision-making process, and second, it must establish rights or obligations from which legal consequences will flow.There is no dispute over the first requirement. It is the second that is in disputeThe judge finds that the Final Memorandum is a final agency action because it uses mandatory language that requires enforcement officers to consider and apply certain priorities and factors before taking enforcement action, and it expressly disallows reliance on the fact that a migrant has been convicted of an offense specified in a statutory provision.Moreover, it provides migrants with the right to challenge enforcement actions they think are inconsistent with the Final Memorandum’s priorities.

 Biden aides ‘tapped out’ as White House faces staff shake up -The White House has faced a slew of departures recently, with several top officials announcing at once that they are moving on after 18 months in the administration during a time when President Biden’s job approval rating continues to sink amid consistently poor marks politically. While 18 months is typical for staff turnover in the White House, it comes at a perilous moment for Democrats ahead of crucial midterm elections. “Given the complex challenges that the administration is facing, these departures are coming at an inopportune time,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. Still, Payne added, “at this point in an administration, it is not abnormal to experience attrition.” One senior administration official acknowledged that many aides are “tapped out.” “It’s been a long few years,” the official said. “The burnout is real. It might not be the ideal time to leave with everything going on, but it’s the right time.” The official explained the early summer months are considered the best time to leave, before midterms season begins. “And then you’re really locked in,” they added. The departure of White House counsel Dana Remus, who is set to leave next month and be replaced by her top deputy Stuart Delery, was this week’s most major announcement. Remus oversaw the selection of Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve on the Supreme Court, as well as the filling of a slew of federal judicial seats while she served in her role, which is considered one of the most challenging jobs in the West Wing. Her departure comes ahead of what is expected to be a GOP takeover of the closely split House and Senate chambers after November’s midterm election. The White House counsel’s office would be in the spotlight to respond to requests expected by Republican lawmakers, who are expected to lead probes into the administration.

McConnell says House’s Supreme Court security bill can’t pass Senate - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned late Monday afternoon that a House bill to provide protection to Supreme Court justices and their staffs will not pass the Senate, ratcheting up a standoff with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). McConnell and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who drafted a Senate bill to implement new protections only for Supreme Court justices, accused House Democrats of trying to stall the measure. Cornyn’s bill, which he wrote with Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), passed the Senate unanimously. McConnell said he had informed House leaders Monday that if they pass a different version of the bill that provides bodyguards for Supreme Court justices and their clerks, it won’t make it to President Biden’s desk. “The version of the Supreme Court security bill that apparently they’re going to try to pass on suspension tonight is not going to pass the Senate,” he said, referring to the House calendar for passing legislation quickly with two-thirds support. “The security issue is related to Supreme Court justices, not nameless staff that no one knows,” he added. The House Supreme Court security bill was not on the lower chamber’s schedule announced for Monday evening, but it’s expected to take up the measure this week. Cornyn, a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said, “All we’re trying to do is give the justices the very same protection that is available to members of Congress.” “Capitol police can provide protective details for people who are under imminent threat, but they don’t have the authority in the Supreme Court to do the same thing, and I think this is playing with fire,” he said. Senate Republicans have stepped up pressure on the House to pass legislation to protect Supreme Court justices after a 26-year-old armed man was charged with attempting to kill Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Cornyn and Coons drafted their bill to protect Supreme Court justices after the a leaked draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights decision, caused a public uproar. The public backlash sparked concerns about the safety of the justices. “This is exactly why the Senate passed legislation very shortly after the leak to enhance the police protection for the justices and their families. This is commonsense, noncontroversial legislation that passed this chamber unanimously,” McConnell said on the floor last week. “But House Democrats have spent weeks blocking it. The House Democratic majority has refused to take it up,” he said.

 Biden signs bill boosting security for SCOTUS justices, families -President Biden on Thursday signed bipartisan legislation to bolster security protection for Supreme Court justices and their families. The bill passed the House in a 396-27 vote on Tuesday, less than a week after an armed man was arrested outside of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home and charged with attempted murder. The White House said in a press release on Thursday evening that Biden had signed the bill. The legislation, which passed the Senate last month, will provide security protections to Supreme Court justices and their families on par with those granted to some members of the executive and legislative branches. Supreme Court justices already had security details, but the new law will allow around-the-clock protection for families of the justices and any officer of the court if deemed necessary. The bill was introduced by Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) in May, days after a leaked draft opinion signaling that the court was poised to overturn the landmark abortion rights ruling Roe v. Wade fueled protests outside of the homes of conservative justices and other demonstrations throughout the country. The bill’s passage in the House was delayed amid a standoff over House Democrats’ demands that protections also be extended to Supreme Court staff like judicial clerks. Senate Republicans objected to that idea, however.

10 Republicans backing Senate gun safety proposal face stiff test - The GOP coalition of 10 senators supporting a framework proposal to respond to the mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, is set to come under intense pressure in the next several weeks as it seeks to prevent even a single defection that could scuttle the long-sought deal. The bipartisan framework, which calls for providing money to states to set up red flag laws and expanding funding for mental health services, has just enough Republican support to overcome a filibuster, as every single member of the Senate Democratic Conference supports it. A big question is how hard the National Rifle Association (NRA) and other gun rights groups will lobby against the legislation and whether they will downgrade the ratings of Republican senators who vote for it. Many of the Republicans who signed on to the bipartisan proposal unveiled Sunday have “A-plus” or “A” ratings from the NRA, which hasn’t yet taken a stance on it. Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), the lead Republican negotiator, noted Monday that the NRA has pledged to stay neutral until the legislative text of the bill is unveiled. The powerful gun rights group said Sunday that it won’t take a position on the framework made public over the weekend. “We will make our position known when the full text of the bill is available for review,” the NRA said in a statement. “The NRA will continue to oppose any effort to insert gun control policies, initiatives that override constitutional due process protections and efforts to deprive law-abiding citizens of their fundamental right to protect themselves and their loved ones into this or any other legislation,” the group said. Cornyn expressed hope the Republican coalition will remain intact no matter what kind of pushback it gets from outside groups. “We want broad support from anybody who will give it, because that will help us build the vote, but I don’t think any single organization will control the outcome,” he said. In addition to Cornyn, GOP Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.), Roy Blunt (Mo.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), Susan Collins (Maine), Mitt Romney (Utah) and Bill Cassidy (La.) also endorsed the bipartisan framework.

House Dems fret Senate GOP will pull about-face on gun deal - House liberals are ready to embrace the modest Senate gun deal as a huge breakthrough after years of rising mass shootings. That is, if a bill actually makes it to them.Progressives said they are encouraged by the announcement over the weekend of 20 Senate supporters for a gun-safety framework that Democratic leaders are now racing to bring to the floor as soon as this month. But many of them also remain dubious that those senators can finish the painstaking work of turning their baseline agreement into detailed legislative text.They’ve been burned by the Senate before. And House liberals are eager to avoid déjà vu after the upper chamber released its last big “framework” on social spending, only to watch centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) tank President Joe Biden’s signature domestic policy bill months later.“The difference between a press release and a bill could be a big difference,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), who noted he is undecided on how he’d vote on the Senate framework. He said the deal appears to rely too much on individual states taking steps on their own to expand so-called red flag laws or to allow access to juvenile records for background checks — with tricky legislative language needed to clarify.“I’m concerned about it. I don’t want to have missed an opportunity, since we’ve done nothing for 30 years,” Doggett said, noting he plans to raise some of those issues with fellow progressives this week.For now, senior Dems think progressives will ultimately back a bipartisan deal if it does pass the Senate. Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), for instance, said she imagined she would back a Senate-passed gun bill but stopped short of full-throated support until she saw the details. “I just want to make sure we’re not putting more guns on the street or, you know, into the hands of people in schools. … I hope they don’t put things in there that would force people to vote against it,” she said.

Health Secretary Becerra tests positive for COVID-19 twice in less than a month - Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday, the agency announced, the second time he has been infected in less than a month. “This morning in Sacramento, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra tested positive for COVID-19 after taking an antigen test. He is fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19, and is experiencing mild symptoms. He will continue to perform his duties as HHS Secretary, working in isolation,” HHS spokeswoman Sarah Lovenheim said in a statement. Becerra previously tested positive for COVID-19 on May 18 while traveling in Berlin ahead of the Group of Seven meetings for health ministers. Last week, Becerra was in Los Angeles to participate in the Summit of the Americas with President Biden and Vice President Harris. HHS said Becerra is not considered a close contact of either. Biden so far has avoided having a known case of the virus, but the White House has acknowledged it is possible he will be infected as well. The administration argues that tools such as vaccines, booster shots and treatments now exist that make the virus much more manageable.

Maxine Waters Tests Positive For COVID-19 After Summit of the Americas -Rep. Maxine Waters is the latest politician to test positive for coronavirus days after the Summit of the Americas conference last week. One day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he tested positive for COVID-19, Waters, 83, said in a statement that she tested positive for the virus for a second time. "Yesterday, after learning of a potential exposure at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, I was notified that I tested positive for COVID," Waters said, adding that she's "currently isolating" and is not experiencing symptoms. "I am following all protocols as recommended by the Office of the Attending Physician and CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidance," she added. "I am grateful to be fully vaccinated and to have received two booster shots. If you haven't received the vaccine and/or booster, I encourage you to do so. I am feeling fine and resting at home." Trudeau, 50, also attended the Summit of the Americas, where he met on Thursday with President Joe Biden, who hosted the event with First Lady Jill Biden. The prime minister shared the news of his positive diagnosis Monday. "I've tested positive for COVID-19. I'll be following public health guidelines and isolating," he tweeted. "I feel okay, but that's because I got my shots. So, if you haven't, get vaccinated – and if you can, get boosted. Let's protect our healthcare system, each other, and ourselves," he added. Despite Trudeau and Biden, 79, sitting without the use of masks for their gathering, a White House spokesperson told CNN and NBC News that the president wasn't considered to be in "close contact" with Trudeau. Trudeau also met with Governor Gavin Newsom for a news conference at the Summit. Newsom, 54, tested positive for COVID-19 on May 28, weeks before the summit took place. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra additionally tested positive for COVID-19 after attending the summit, less than a month after he previously came down with the virus.

Republican senator who led the push to end mask mandates on planes and public transport tests positive for COVID-19 for the 3rd time in a year -Republican Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi tested positive for COVID-19 for the third time in a year on Monday. "Today Senator Wicker received a positive result for COVID-19 after taking a required test," Wicker's communications director, Phillip Waller, said in a statement. "He will be expected to miss votes and committee business this week until he is able to return in person to the Senate." Wicker, who is fully vaccinated, previously announced a positive test in February 2022 and in August 2021. Before a judge appointed by former President Donald Trump struck down mask mandates for planes and other public transportation in April, Wicker led the push in the Senate to end it via legislation. In March, he and Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and James Lankford of Oklahoma held a press conference in support of a joint resolution of disapproval sponsored by Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky that would've repealed the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) mask mandate on airplanes and public transportation. The TSA mandate was enacted by the Biden administration in January 2021 in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. That resolution ultimately passed the Senate by a 57-40 vote, but was not taken up by the Democratic-controlled House. At the press conference, Wicker argued that lifting the mask mandates on airplanes was long overdue. When asked by Insider exactly when he thought the mandates should have been lifted, Wicker said April 2021 — before vaccines were widely available and before the deadly Delta and Omicron waves — would have been the appropriate time. He cited congressional testimony from a public health expert that noted that airplanes can filter out 99% of the particles that cause the disease. But that expert noted in that same testimony that the filtration should be utilized "in combination with face masks" and that declining to use both measures "will not provide the adequate protection required" to stop the spread of the disease.

Wicker expected to miss Senate votes after COVID diagnosis -Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) announced Monday he has tested positive for COVID-19 and expects to miss Senate votes this week. Wicker said in a release he received the positive result as part of a required test and will miss votes and Senate committee affairs this week until he is able to return in person. The positive test marks the third time Wicker has tested positive for COVID-19, having previously tested positive in August and in February. Wicker said after he tested positive in February that he is fully vaccinated and was in “good health.” He said in August that he tested positive after experiencing mild symptoms. The seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the United States has mostly plateaued at about 100,000 cases per day over the past few weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The average rose from less than 30,000 in mid-April to its current standing since mid-May.

 Fauci tests positive for Covid-19 – CNN - Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and President Biden's chief medical adviser, has tested positive for Covid-19, the institute said Wednesday. Fauci, 81, has mild symptoms and has been boosted twice, the institute said in a statement. The institute told CNN that he is being treated with the antiviral medication Paxlovid. NIAID said Fauci found out that he was positive on a rapid antigen test. The director will work from home and follow agency protocol, returning to the National Institutes of Health campus only after he tests negative. Fauci was scheduled to speak Thursday at a hearing of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on the status of the federal response to Covid-19 and plans to manage the pandemic. The agency said he will attend by videoconference. Fauci has not had any close contact with Biden or other senior officials recently, the institute said. Throughout the pandemic, he has urged caution and has demonstrated it himself at public events. For instance, he chose not to attend the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner in April after considering his individual risk. "Each of us, in our own personal way, has to make an assessment of what risk you're willing to accept about getting infected," he told CNN. "In general, the risk is low, but I made a personal assessment. I'm 81 years old, and if I get infected, I have a much higher risk." Fauci has been working nonstop during the pandemic. In May, he said he hadn't had a day off since Covid-19 came to the US. He has been the director of NIAID since 1984 and has advised seven Presidents. Fauci joins a growing list of Biden administration leaders who have had Covid-19, including White House domestic policy adviser Susan Rice, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Vice President Kamala Harris and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

 White House refuses to say when Biden last tested for COVID-19 -White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre clashed with reporters on Thursday over her refusal to reveal the last time President Biden was tested for COVID-19. Jean-Pierre would only say that the president tests weekly for the virus. In an apparent reversal of previous protocol, she refused to say what day of the week the president was last tested and would not commit to sharing such details in the future. “If there were close contact, we would share that. We would have the transparency and show that. He just has not been in close contact,” Jean-Pierre said. The questioning comes one day after Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced that Fauci has not been recently in close contact with Biden or other senior government officials. Under the previous press secretary Jen Psaki, the press would receive regular updates with the date and result of the president’s last COVID-19 test, especially when a high-profile official or member of his Cabinet tested positive. If a test result wasn’t proactively shared, Psaki would commit to sharing it when asked.

COVID funding request hits pushback from GOP senator A top Republican senator on Thursday pushed back hard against calls from Biden administration health officials for more funding to fight COVID-19, saying that he will be a “roadblock” until the officials provide sufficient justification that the money is needed. The comments from Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.), the top Republican on the Senate Health Committee, illustrate how hard it will be for the Biden administration’s COVID-19 funding request to get through Congress, despite health officials’ dire warnings that the money is needed to have enough updated vaccines for all Americans this fall, among other things. “I’ll continue to be a roadblock for those who believe that we can blindly just appropriate emergency money, borrow it from the Chinese, and spend it on something that none of us have a clue as to what the plan is,” Burr said during a hearing in front of the Senate Health Committee. Dire warnings about lack of funds: Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Robert Califf said people could die unnecessarily without new funding if they cannot get access to updated vaccines and treatments. “To me the most important thing that will happen is people will die or be hospitalized or experience long COVID for days to months to maybe a lifetime unnecessarily if they don’t have access to the latest vaccines and antivirals,” Califf said. The White House pushed back on Burr’s contention that it had not provided a plan for the spending, pointing to a 97-page document that it released in March.

Jan. 6 panel’s chair sparks pushback with criminal referral remarks -Members of the House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol are quarreling over whether to make a criminal referral to the Justice Department (DOJ) after ChairBennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said Monday the committee would make no such move.“That’s not our job. Our job is to look at Jan. 6. What caused it and make recommendations after that … We don’t have the authority,” Thompson told reporters Monday night.Thompson’s comments prompted a response from other lawmakers on the panel, an unusual public display for a committee whose members are fond of saying there is “no daylight” between them.“The January 6th Select Committee has not issued a conclusion regarding potential criminal referrals. We will announce a decision on that at an appropriate time,” Vice Chair Liz Cheney(R-Wyo.) wrote on Twitter on Monday night.“Our committee has yet to vote on whether we will recommend criminal referrals to the Department of Justice. If criminal activity occurred, it is our responsibility to report that activity to the DOJ,” Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) also tweeted. Whether the committee makes such a recommendation is largely symbolic. Even with a referral, the decision on whether to file charges rests solely with the Justice Department. Such a decision would also require significant evidence, something it’s not yet clear the committee will provide.At a Monday press conference on gun trafficking, Attorney General Merrick Garland declined to comment on any of the evidence that has emerged in the select committee’s hearings but confirmed he is following the public phase of the panel’s investigation.“I am watching and I will be watching all of the hearings,” Garland said. “And I can assure you that the Jan. 6 prosecutors are watching all of the hearings as well.”

Most in new poll support legal action against elected officials who attempt to overturn election results -The majority of Americans said that the Department of Justice (DOJ) should bring legal action against officials who mislead the public about the outcome of an election, according to a new poll from Morning Consult and Politico. The poll showed that 42 percent of respondents “definitely” thought the DOJ should bring legal action against elected officials involved in misleading Americans, and 21 percent thought legal action should “probably” happen. Sixteen percent said such legal action should “probably not” happen and 10 percent said it should “definitely not” happen. Eleven percent said they did not know or had no opinion. The survey also indicated that 52 percent of respondents thought that an elected official’s attempt to overturn election results was “definitely” a crime. Another 17 percent said it was “probably” a crime. Meanwhile, 11 percent said it was “probably not” a crime, 9 percent said it was “definitely not” a crime and another 11 percent did not know or had no opinion. The poll results come as public hearings continue surrounding the work of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. In a daytime hearing on Monday, the committee made its case that then-President Trump was well aware the claims he was making about election fraud were false, highlighting testimony from advisers and former Attorney General William Barr recalling conversations in which they made that very point. The committee has also promised to show how Trump’s peddling of the “Big Lie” that the election was stolen motivated the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 in an effort to block the certification of President Biden’s election victory.

Game on: Jan. 6 Committee’s Day 2 hearing delivers ‘The Big Grift’ - After observing the House January 6 Select Committee’s hearing on Monday, its second, I would say that Trump World — and perhaps Trump himself — should be very worried. Judging from Monday’s hearing, the credibility of Trump’s claim of being a victim and his grievances about his 2020 election defeat are melting away. Instead, he’s potentially become — with credible allegation — not only The Big Liar, but also The Big Grifter, conning his own unsuspecting base out of hundreds of millions of dollars to nourish his false victimization and grievance proclamations. The committee laid out evidence. Some or much of that money might have gone to enriching Trump Worlders for purposes other than what the donors intended it for. Ostensibly it was to be used for Trump to fight his election loss in court. Following the hearing, for instance, panel member Zoe Lofgren said some of the money, $60,000, paid for a speech at the Jan. 6 Trump rally by Kimberly Guilfoyle, Donald Trump, Jr.’s fiancé. The speech lasted just two and a half minutes, according to Lofgren. Other such transactions will be revealed soon by the committee. Suddenly, we have a plausible and understandable possible motive for why Trump has perpetuated the Big Lie: to perpetuate the Big Grift. In a video presented by the committee near the end of the hearing, Amanda Wick, a senior investigative counsel for the committee, testified that the Trump campaign, after the election, “continued to barrage small dollar donors with emails, encouraging them to donate to something called the ‘Official Election Defense Fund.’” According to Wick’s testimony, one quarter of a billion dollars — with a “B” — was raised by Trump and his allies. Wick said the committee could find no evidence that the fund actually existed — and presented sworn testimony from Trump campaign officials that it did not. If that realization ever sinks in with Trump’s supporters, I wouldn’t want to be Trump, his family or his inner circle.

Jan. 6 panel delves into Trump’s motives with eye to DOJ -The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on Monday sought to establish a key element of its public case against former President Trump — that he knew his claims of election fraud had little merit or likelihood of success but sought to overturn the election anyway. Pulling back the curtain on the internal machinations of the 2020 Trump campaign, the panel showed testimony from official after official who worked both on the campaign and in the administration who said the former president was repeatedly advised that his claims of widespread election fraud were unsupported by evidence. Trump’s mindset in pursuing his baseless claims will be a fundamental part of the select committee’s investigation. Showing he knew he was acting on fraudulent claims as he led efforts at the state and federal level to remain in power could demonstrate his culpability not just to the public, but to the Department of Justice for potential criminal proceedings. Jeff Robbins, a former federal prosecutor and congressional investigative counsel, said the committee has presented the type of evidence that law enforcement typically seek out in building a criminal case, working to establish that Trump knew he lost the election but fought the results anyway and profited off the bogus claims with lucrative fundraising efforts. “The first piece of what the committee was doing was trying to make Americans understand just how serious this is,” Robbins said. “The second piece of it is directed, I think, in effect at the Justice Department.” “That’s the kind of evidence that in an ordinary case would leave a prosecutor salivating with the knowledge that there was evidence up, down and sideways of corrupt and dishonest intent,” he said. Testimony from Monday showed that Trump had been given legal advice that his claims were baseless, including from his own attorney general, William Barr, who said such claims were “completely bogus and silly and usually based on complete misinformation.” “It was like playing whack-a-mole,” Barr said of the various unsubstantiated theories of widespread fraud in a taped deposition before the committee shared Monday. “I told him that the stuff that his people were shoveling out to the public was bullshit, I mean, that the claims of fraud were bullshit,” he said in another clip. The committee also laid out the way Trump was able to raise millions off his false election claims, raising some $250 million for a supposed election defense fund. “It’s clear that he intentionally misled his donors, asked them to donate to a fund that didn’t exist, and use the money raised for something other than what he said. Now, it’s for someone else to decide whether that’s criminal or not. That’s not the purview of a legislative committee,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the member of the panel who walked through the bulk of evidence during Monday’s hearing, told reporters afterwards. Several members of the committee in addition to Lofgren have made clear that they want to see the Justice Department seriously scrutinize whether Trump broke the law in the effort to undermine the election that also drove his supporters to attack the Capitol last year. While the panel believes it has collected damning evidence about Trump, it will likely be Attorney General Merrick Garland and other Justice Department leaders who decide whether to take the unprecedented step of prosecuting a former president.

Trump releases 12-page response to Jan. 6 hearing -Former President Trump on Monday issued a 12-page rebuttal to testimony and evidence presented by a House committee investigating the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, accusing Democrats of seeking to distract from a series of domestic issues facing the country. “Seventeen months after the events of January 6th, Democrats are unable to offer solutions,” Trump said in a statement released through his Save America PAC. “They are desperate to change the narrative of a failing nation, without even making mention of the havoc and death caused by the Radical Left just months earlier. Make no mistake, they control the government. They own this disaster. They are hoping that these hearings will somehow alter their failing prospects.” The 12-page document underscores how Trump has yet to move on from his false claims of fraud in the 2020 election and how the committee’s work may be central to a potential 2024 campaign. The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection has held two public hearings thus far as it builds a case to show Trump was repeatedly informed by aides that the election was not stolen or rigged but continued to claim publicly that it was for months, misleading his supporters. In the 12-page document, Trump repeats a handful of disproven claims to assert the 2020 election was stolen from him and rigged in favor of Democrats, including some that were brought up during testimony by former Trump campaign and administration officials. One section of Trump’s statement focuses on ballot trafficking claims, for which he cites the Dinesh D’Souza documentary “2000 Mules.” In testimony shown earlier Monday, former Attorney General William Barr laughed at the mention of the film, saying he was “unimpressed with it” and dismissed the idea that it proved widespread fraud. Another section asserts that President Biden could not have won the states of Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia because he got more Black votes and Hispanic votes than former President Obama. Each of those states has performed audits and recounts and found no evidence of widespread fraud. Trump in one section claimed states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan took additional time after Election Day to count ballots because it was part of an elaborate scheme to ship in fraudulent votes so Biden could erase Trump’s narrow leads in those states. But former Fox News editor Chris Stirewalt testified in person on Monday to dismiss that very theory, known as the “red mirage.” Stirewalt explained that Republicans typically do better on Election Day, while Democrats perform better in early voting. Some states, such as Pennsylvania, do not count early votes or mail-in ballots until Election Day, meaning it takes additional time to finalize the count. The Jan. 6 hearings have shown a number of former Trump aides dismissing his claims of election fraud and insisting they told the former president he did not have a case based in fact in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Barr has testified that he told Trump his claims about the election were “bullshit” and referred to them as “nonsense” and “idiotic.” In a deposition shown Monday, Barr told the committee he worried Trump was “detached from reality” in the weeks after the election as he claimed without evidence that certain voting machines were designed to cheat. But Trump has repeatedly shown he will not back down from his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, turning it into a major campaign issue in the 2022 midterms and beyond. He has backed candidates who continue to deny that Biden is the legitimately elected president, and he has supported challengers to the Republicans who voted to impeach him over the Capitol riot. “As we near the midterm elections, we’re watching the Swamp creatures circle the drain as true Americans step up to replace the corrupt Establishment with patriots who will fight for our freedoms,” Trump says in Monday’s 12-page statement.

Trump slams Capitol riot probe as ‘Kangaroo Court’ BBC - Former US President Donald Trump has blasted the congressional inquiry into the Capitol riot as a "Kangaroo Court". In a 12-page statement, he said the investigation was designed to distract Americans from the "disaster" of Democratic-led governance. It came after the committee held two public hearings accusing Mr Trump of an attempted coup to remain in power. The panel on Monday detailed evidence of divisions among Trump aides over whether to accept his election loss. Supporters of Mr Trump stormed Congress on 6 January 2021 in a bid to thwart certification of Joe Biden's election victory. A separate ongoing criminal investigation has led to more than 800 arrests in nearly every state. "Seventeen months after the events of January 6th, Democrats are unable to offer solutions," Mr Trump, a Republican, said in a statement released through his Save America PAC. "They are desperate to change the narrative of a failing nation, without even making mention of the havoc and death caused by the Radical Left just months earlier," he continued, alluding to the rioting that erupted during US racial justice protests over the summer of 2020. "Make no mistake, they control the government. They own this disaster. They are hoping that these hearings will somehow alter their failing prospects." Mr Trump accused the "unselect pseudo-committee" of treason, referring to the Democratic-led House of Representatives select committee that has been conducting the inquiry for the past year.

Jan. 6 panel pits Trump against Pence - A weeks-long campaign by former President Trump to pressure his vice president to overturn the 2020 election results was based on a “nutty” legal theory — rejected by top aides to both men — that led directly to the violence on Jan. 6, 2021, according to congressional testimony presented Thursday. In its third hearing scheduled this month, the House select committee investigating the Capitol attack lionized former Vice President Mike Pence, showing him as “unwavering” in his resistance to Trump’s arm-twisting effort that extended straight into Jan. 6, when rioters forced Pence into hiding for four hours. At one point, Pence was just 40 feet from the angry mob, while Trump did not reach out to check on his vice president, according to testimony presented Thursday. Pence was seen in photos huddling with staff and security while watching on his phone as Trump tweeted missives to his followers amid the riot. The revelations were just the latest instance of the select committee — a bipartisan panel created by Democrats — tapping leading Republican voices to go after their own party’s standard bearer, portraying Trump as a lawless figure hellbent on clinging to power at any cost. It’s a strategy requiring some of the most liberal Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the investigative chairman, to cast aside partisan differences to join forces with the ultra-conservative Pence, who is himself eyeing a run at the White House in 2024. Whether Pence’s defiance of Trump ultimately helps or hurts his political future remains to be seen. But the Democrats on the committee appear happy to gamble with the idea of advancing Pence’s reputation for a shot at holding Trump to account for his actions leading up to and during the riot. “We’re fortunate for Mr. Pence’s courage on January 6th,” Thompson said. “Our democracy came dangerously close to catastrophe.” Beyond Pence, one particular campaign lawyer took center stage in the hearing Thursday: John Eastman. The conservative law professor crafted two strategies for Trump’s campaign: one in which Pence could outright refuse to certify the electoral votes from certain states; another in which Pence would refer those votes back to the states for a recount. In a departure from its first two hearings, the panel relied heavily on in-person witnesses — two legal advisers to Pence — who spared no detail in refuting the legality of Eastman’s approach. “There is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person would choose the American president,” Greg Jacob, who was Pence’s top lawyer in the White House, told the committee.

Ginni Thomas: I ‘can’t wait’ to talk to Jan. 6 committee, will ‘clear up misconceptions’ -Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, told The Daily Caller on Thursday that she looked forward to speaking with the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.The panel said earlier in the day it planned to seek her testimony, hours after media reports emerged indicating the committee had received emails between Thomas and a Trump campaign attorney.“I can’t wait to clear up misconceptions,” Thomas told The Daily Caller. “I look forward to talking to them.”The conservative news outlet said it pressed Thomas to detail those misconceptions but did not immediately receive a response.Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the chairman of the Jan. 6 panel, told reporters on Thursday that the committee would send an invite to Thomas “at some point” in the next few weeks.Thompson’s statement came after The Washington Post reported on Wednesday evening that the committee received emails between Thomas and Trump campaign attorney John Eastman,who circulated a memo outlining a strategy for then-Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election results.The Post reported the emails’ existence while saying its sources declined to provide further details about the communications.Thomas’s attempts to overturn the election results have drawn fierce criticism from Democrats.The Post reported on Friday that Thomas emailed 29 Arizona state lawmakers in an attempt to reverse President Biden’s win in the state.Thomas’s involvement in the efforts has raised ethical questions over her husband’s role in deciding cases related to the election and Jan. 6. Justice Thomas has argued his decisions are entirely separate from his wife’s activism.

Judge rejects Bannon’s effort to dismiss criminal case for defying Jan. 6 select committee - A federal judge on Wednesday rejected former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s effort to dismiss the criminal contempt case against him for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee. In an oral ruling, U.S. District Court Judge Carl Nichols rebuffed a series of arguments Bannon had lodged, including that Trump had asserted executive privilege to block his former aide’s testimony. Nichols contended that there’s insufficient evidence that Trump truly did assert privilege or seek to block Bannon from testifying to the panel the House created to investigate the storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 and related events. Nichols, a Trump appointee, also rejected Bannon’s claim that internal Justice Department opinions granted him “immunity” from a congressional subpoena for documents related to his contacts with Trump while Trump was in office. But Nichols said Bannon’s team had not presented evidence that DOJ’s opinions applied in his case — the case of a former White House aide subpoenaed for testimony related to a former president. The ruling is an early win for the Justice Department against Bannon, who is slated to go on trial next month on two charges for contempt of Congress. The Jan. 6 select committee subpoenaed him in September, but Bannon refused to appear or provide any documents. The House held Bannon in contempt in mid-October and DOJ charged him three weeks later. A masked Bannon, wearing an all-black button-down shirt, sat in the courtroom with his arms folded while Nichols ran through a series of arguments Bannon had raised against the indictment — and rejected each of them. He is slated to go on trial in July, though his attorney, David Schoen, indicated he might seek to postpone the trial date given the publicity surrounding the Jan. 6 select committee’s public hearings. In another win for the select committee, Nichols declined to rule that the structure or make-up of the committee undercut the validity subpoena to Bannon, sweeping aside arguments that the panel was operating improperly because the panel lacks any appointees of House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy. “The court cannot conclude as a matter of law that the committee was invalidly constituted,” Nichols said. He noted that the House had repeatedly ratified the work of the select committee by voting to support its motions to hold various witnesses in contempt, an indication that the House viewed the committee’s work as valid. Courts, he noted, are required to give great deference to the House’s interpretation of its own rules.

Democrats face congressional rout amid historically terrible headwinds -Midterm election years are almost never good for a president’s party. Even before the calamitous events of the past 10 months, Democrats knew the first midterm election of President Biden’s tenure in office would be a challenge. But the cascade of catastrophe that has so dented what little American optimism remained in the waning days of the pandemic and the associated economic recovery has even the most optimistic Democratic Party strategists and pollsters staring into an unprecedented abyss. Their standing, about five months before voters head to the polls, is worse than it has been for any president in modern times, by almost any indicator. A new study compiled by Gallup comparing widely used barometers of midterm attitudes since 1974, which has made the rounds widely in Democratic circles this week, underscores just how bad the atmosphere has become.Biden’s approval rating stands at an average of just 41 percent in Gallup surveys, tied with former President Trump before the 2018 midterms and lower than any president except George W. Bush in 2006. Just 18 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure for a midterm year and 3 points lower than its rating in both 2018, when Republicans lost control of Congress, and 2010, when Democrats surrendered control. Only 16 percent of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, another nadir. And the gap between those who see an economy headed in a negative direction and those who see economic conditions heading the right way is 32 percentage points, on par with the depths of the great recession ahead of the 2010 midterms. “Today’s polls indicate a tsunami,” said David Paleologos, who heads polling at Suffolk University. Interviews with half a dozen Democratic strategists and pollsters — most of whom declined to put their anxiety on the record — show a party clinging to hopes that voter anger can be spread across the aisle. They point to numbers that show that while Democrats aren’t popular, neither are Republicans, and that several major events still to play out before the midterm elections will underscore the GOP’s chief weaknesses. “Abortion, guns and Jan. 6 are causing them real problems taking advantage of the political environment,” said John Anzalone, who conducted polling for Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. “Voters may not be happy with the party in power, but they sure aren’t excited about the alternative.”

Trump takes down his first impeachment victim: 5 takeaways from a big primary night - The first House Republican to vote for Donald Trump’s impeachment and face a Trump-endorsed challenger in a primary paid the price for it in South Carolina. Maine set up a preview of a potential Trump-Joe Biden rematch in 2024. And a heavily Latino swath of southern Texas swung right. The midterm primary calendar has now worked through nearly half of the states, with primaries on Tuesday in South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota and Maine. If we’ve learned anything from this year’s primaries, it’s that Trump isn’t invincible. Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger both thumped Trump-endorsed challengers in Georgia. A handful of House Republicans who voted to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol survived in last week’s primaries. And on Tuesday in South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace, despite her criticisms of the former president, was running ahead of her Trump-backed challenger. But if there’s a limit to how severely a Republican can cross Trump, the other closely-watched House race in South Carolina appeared to lay it bare. Tom Rice, the representative who voted to impeach Trump and never backed off his criticism of him, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry. Some 17 months after Rice voted to impeach, he pulled about a quarter of the vote in the coastal district he’s represented for a decade. Rice said he is at peace with his vote to impeach and hopes to inspire others not to cower to Trump, but he may not have achieved his goal. For the remaining House candidates who voted to impeach Trump — and who have not retired — the result is foreboding. Rice and his family suffered through personal turmoil, death threats and hate mail, only to see a brutal loss to a Trump-backed foe. Few would want to follow his path. Sam Brown, the wounded Afghanistan veteran and anti-establishment outsider, secured the endorsement of the Nevada Republican Party this spring, and Laxalt and his allies were forced to scramble. In just the last three weeks, the Club for Growth has spent roughly $750,000 on television ads attacking Brown in an effort to shore up Laxalt’s support among Republicans. Laxalt brought Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis out to campaign with him in Nevada, and he received support from Trump last week in the form of a tele-town hall. While Trump remains wildly popular with the Nevada GOP — some 89 percent of Republican voters there view him favorably, according to the latest Nevada Independent poll — he still isn’t clearing most GOP primary fields in 2022. Few states will offer a better preview of a potential Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch in 2024 than the gubernatorial race that got set up Tuesday in Maine. Paul LePage, the former Republican governor back to challenge Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, could hardly be more Trump-like – the kind of brash, vulgarity-prone politician who told former President Barack Obama to “go to hell,” and blamed the state’s heroin epidemic on drug dealers with names like “D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty” who, LePage said, come to Maine and return home after impregnating a “young white girl.” He has boasted that he was “Donald Trump before Donald Trump.” And then there’s Mills, who is … not that. LePage is pummeling Mills — as Trump is Biden — over the state of the economy. And in a sign that Republicans will not likely abandon the culture wars anytime soon, the GOP is up with ads criticizing Mills for a video that was on the state Department of Education website of a teacher explaining transgender identity to kindergarteners. House Republicans made huge inroads in their effort to turn South Texas red, capturing a heavily Latino — and historically Democratic — district on Tuesday night. Republican Mayra Flores will become the first Republican to represent her South Texas district in modern history. Democrats’ nightmare here is twofold. They have lost a crucial seat in their razor-thin House majority, putting the squeeze on their ability to pass legislation for the rest of the year. But Republicans have also gained crucial momentum in a region they are targeting seriously in the fall. South Texas took a hard swing to the right in 2020, buoyed by Trump’s popularity in the region. This race demonstrates that that was not a fluke. Even though Biden carried this district by 4 points in 2020, Flores has built a comfortable edge over Democrat Dan Sanchez. The special election, prompted by Democrat Filemon Vela’s resignation, was held under the old congressional district lines. The new boundaries take effect in the fall, which will turn the district into one that Biden would have won by 16 points. But the power of incumbency and the cachet from her upset will give Flores a fighting chance to hold it. And Republicans now feel even more confident that they can flip two other Democratic-held seats in the Rio Grande Valley that will be even more competitive.

GOP flips Texas House seat; Tom Rice goes down in S.C. - Republicans flipped control of a South Texas congressional district yesterday, while South Carolina Republican Rep. Tom Rice lost to a primary opponent backed by former President Donald Trump. In a night with a handful of potential primary surprises, most incumbents held on, including Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.). In the Texas 34th District race, Mayra Flores, a local GOP official, beat out attorney Dan Sanchez (D) in a special election to succeed former Rep. Filemon Vela (D) following his departure earlier this year to work at a lobbying firm. The area has long been a Democratic stronghold, and President Joe Biden won there easily in 2020. Yet turnout was estimated by state officials to be in the single digits, and the district was made more Democratic by redistricting that takes effect in the midterms, so Flores’ victory may have few long-term impacts. Nonetheless, she makes history as the first Mexican-born woman elected to the U.S. Congress. “It is time that we bring the policies that were working. It cannot be that we accept what is happening in our country right now,” she told supporters following her win. “And it’s not about politics. This is hurting real people,” Flores said. “The policies that are being placed right now are hurting us. We cannot accept the increase of gas, of food, of medication. We cannot accept that.” She added, “And we have to state the facts: that under President Trump, we did not have this mess in this country. It was his policies that helped us prosper.”

Mayra Flores, Who Has Promoted QAnon, Wins Seat in Congress - Rolling Stone -It’s primary season, but there was a special election in Texas on Tuesday in which Republican Mayra Floresdefeated Democrat Dan Sanchez to secure a spot in Congress. The result is significant because the state’s 34th District had been blue, with Democrat Filemon Vela retiring this year to force the special election to carry out the remainder of his term. Flores’ victory in South Texas is another sign the party is losing ground with the state’s Hispanic population.It’s also significant because Flores has promoted the QAnon conspiracy theory, which holds that the United States is run by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who would — or still will — be brought to justice by Donald Trump. Media Matters points out that Flores frequently adds “#Q” and “#QAnon” to her social media posts, as well as “#wwg1wga,” shorthand for “Where We Go One, We Go All,” a QAnon slogan. Flores has denied she believes in QAnon, telling the San Antonio Express-News that she’s “always been against any of that.”Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), the most prominent QAnon supporter currently in Congress, has made similar denials. Her win in 2020 was alarming given the litany of outlandish conspiracy theories she’d pushed in the past, from the idea that 9/11 was staged, to the idea that California wildfires were started deliberately by Jews, to several theories revolving around Democrats and pedophilia. These types of ludicrous, unfounded claims have since worked their way into mainstream conservatism, and it’s no longer shocking for Republican congressional candidates to have pushed any number of unfounded conspiracy theories — including, of course, that the 2020 election was fraudulent.There’s no evidence Flores has articulated any of these views, but it’s nonetheless concerning that she doesn’t seem to have any problem aligning herself with QAnon. Her decision to do so is another reminder that the conspiracy theory and all of its tendrils aren’t only flourishing on the fringes. QAnon followers are now a core demographic many Republicans feel they need to court as they vie to win a seat in Congress. Flores will still have to win the general election in November to retain the seat beyond the remainder of Vela’s term, but for now, at least, conspiracy theorists can rest easy knowing they have one more ally in Washington.

Elon Musk 'leaning' towards supporting DeSantis for president --— Ron DeSantis appears to be winning the Elon Musk primary. Tucked in a Twitter thread where Musk, the world’s richest man worth an estimated $205 billion, discussed midterm politics and the fact he voted Republican for the first time during Tuesday night’s primaries, he said DeSantis at the moment is who he would support for president in 2024. Musk was asked on Wednesday morning by a Twitter user called “Tesla Owner Silicon Valley” if he would vote Republican in the presidential race, to which Musk replied “tbd.” “What are you leaning towards?” the user followed up. “DeSantis,” he replied. DeSantis has brushed off questions about 2024, but in nearly every early 2024 straw poll has either finished first or second when competing only with former President Donald Trump, as the rest of the potential 2024 GOP field trails by wide margins. DeSantis has also been raising huge sums of campaign cash and has a growing base of support among conservative coast-to-coast. Musk made his comment about DeSantis in reply to a tweet about Texas Republican Mayra Flores winning a special election and flipping a congressional seat long held by Democrats. She will now become the first Mexican-born congresswoman. “I voted for Mayra Flores – first time I ever voted Republican,” he tweeted. “Massive red wave in 2022.” In recent months, DeSantis has praised Musk, whose flirtation with buying Twitter has energized conservatives who think under his leadership there would be less censorship, something DeSantis has focused on as governor. In April, as Twitter was nearing a deal with Musk to sell, DeSantis said it would be a blow to “failed legacy media.” “They were used to going around a lot of those failed legacy media outlets like NBC and CNN that no one trusts anymore,” DeSantis said during an April press conference. “It seems like over the last five or six years, these big tech companies, including Twitter, have gone from open platforms to being enforcers of the narrative.”

Bill Clinton: ‘Fair chance’ US could ‘completely lose’ its democratic system - Bill Clinton says he’s never before been so concerned about the country’s foundational future, lamenting there’s a “fair chance” that the United States could “completely lose our constitutional democracy.” The former president appeared Wednesday on CBS’s “The Late Late Show” and responded to a question from host James Corden that alluded to Donald Trump’s presidency without mentioning the ex-commander in chief by name. Corden asked Clinton how he stays “so positive in what has been a very, very dark few years.” While saying that witnessing his grandchildren grow up makes it “impossible to be pessimistic about the future,” Clinton added, “Now, you shouldn’t be Pollyanna.” “I actually think there’s a fair chance that we could completely lose our constitutional democracy for a couple of decades if we keep making — if we make bad decisions,” Clinton, 75, said. “I’m not naive about this. I’ve been in a lot of fights. I’ve lost some, won a bunch. I’ve been elated and heartbroken,” he continued. “But I’ve never before been as worried about the structure of our democratic form of government,” the 42nd president told Corden. Clinton’s remarks come a day after a poll found that nearly half of all Americans believe the U.S. might “cease to be a democracy in the future.” Fifty-five percent of Democrats and 53 percent of Republicans surveyed in the Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Wednesday said they believe the country will “likely” not be a democracy one day. Clinton said that he’s holding out hope his concerns don’t become a reality. “So far, every time we were faced with our own undoing, our conscious kicked in and we stepped away from the brink,” he said. “And I kind of think that’s what will happen here, but I don’t know when or how.”

"The Mashinsky Moment": Celsius Pauses All Withdrawals --Most people know I have been extremely critical of Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky, ever since he participated in a “Gold vs. Crypto” debate with Peter Schiff where he rattled off one alarming statement after the next. Tonight, it looks as though Celsius has delivered the ultimate piece of bad news for its clients - that they can no longer withdrawal their funds.Celsius wrote this evening in a “Memo to the Celsius Community”:Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations.The post continued:Acting in the interest of our community is our top priority. In service of that commitment and to adhere to our risk management framework, we have activated a clause in our Terms of Use that will allow for this process to take place. Celsius has valuable assets and we are working diligently to meet our obligations.The company said it is taking the action to “stabilize liquidity and operations”:We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilize liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets. Furthermore, customers will continue to accrue rewards during the pause in line with our commitment to our customers.We understand that this news is difficult, but we believe that our decision to pause withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts is the most responsible action we can take to protect our community. We are working with a singular focus: to protect and preserve assets to meet our obligations to customers. Our ultimate objective is stabilizing liquidity and restoring withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts as quickly as possible. There is a lot of work ahead as we consider various options, this process will take time, and there may be delays.

The Great Celsius Implosion: What Went Wrong And How Much More Will Bitcoin Drop --The purpose of this issue will be twofold:

• The first will be an in-depth look at the Celsius platform, and breakdown the design of the business/ecosystem to understand what went wrong.
• The second is to detail the events that have transpired over the recent weeks with Celsius “yield generation” strategies, and update subscribers on the state of the market, with potentially big ramifications on the horizon.

The following is written by Bitcoin Magazine’s Namcios, detailing Celsius’s core business operations. This section takes a deep look at the inner workings of the project itself, as per its white paper, including some red flags in its design and backboning assumptions that could’ve served as a warning to investors – and can hopefully be applied to other projects to prevent similar losses in the future.“As more people join the Celsius ecosystem, the more everyone benefits,” per the white paper.Throughout its white paper, Celsius conflates terms and assumptions, pushing forward design decisions that don’t necessarily play along. One example of this is naming itself Celsius “network” while having an entire section dedicated to showing an “executive team.” It can be argued that networks don’t have executive teams, though Celsius has a few founders, a CEO, a COO and a CTO, as well as marketing and development departments. It also repeatedly refers to a “community” it seeks to create with its network, though the user can be certain that the executive team will almost always preserve its own self-interests instead of the community’s – which is what happened on Sunday as withdrawals were halted in the platform. (The withdrawal issue will be explored in length in a subsequent section.)Celsius fails to provide a proper explanation for why its project needs a token, as seen in the image above. The white paper simply states that its “lending and borrowing model requires a blockchain and an open ledger technology,” citing that such needs come “in order [for the project] to really gain traction.”Both can hardly be seen as factual responses to that question. In fact, the white paper in its entirety is more akin to a marketing deck or a pitch to investors than what a white paper should really be: a technical document explaining the engineering decisions behind the project’s design.Moreover, complex trading platforms exist in the world that handle very complex structures and settlement orders, meaning that a smart contract is also not a strong enough reason for a blockchain.Indeed, the real reason as to why Celsius needs a blockchain and an open ledger technology is to issue its CEL tokens – for which it built an ecosystem around to generate enough “traction.” Moreover, the CEL tokens also allowed the team to raise money from investors to build out the platform and wallet. Still, the issuance of credit could’ve been done without a blockchain, but in that case the team would’ve lacked an important motto for generating hype nowadays – “crypto,” “decentralized” and “blockchain.”The white paper demonstrates that Celsius performed a presale of CEL tokens (amounting to 40% of the total number of CEL tokens) at $0.20 per token and later did a crowdsale (amounting to 10% of the total number of CEL tokens) at $0.30 per token. While the presale occurred in Q4 2017, the crowdsale began in March 2018.

Celsius crypto bank freezes withdrawals; bitcoin, etherium plunge - A decision by embattled cryptocurrency bank Celsius to halt withdrawals by its nearly 2 million users rattled crypto markets Monday and underscored fears that some of the sector’s largest companies are on shaky financial ground. “Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts,” the company, officially called the Celsius Network, said in a statement late Sunday. “We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations.” In layman’s terms, this means that people who deposited money with Celsius to reap its famously high returns can’t, for the time being, get it out. The company says it has 1.7 million users and is believed to be holding about $8 billion in deposits, which are now frozen. No timetable was offered for when withdrawals would be restored. The news caused the largest cryptocurrencies to plunge — bitcoin dropped 12 percent as of late Monday afternoon and ethereum plunged 13 percent. There is a feedback loop of sorts here; it was a drop of more than 10 percent for each currency in the days before the announcement that probably contributed to Celsius’s liquidity issues in the first place. Overall, bitcoin is down 23 percent in the last five days while ethereum has plummeted 30 percent during that time; both now sit at their lowest prices in nearly 18 months. Celsius’s own coin, meanwhile, has dropped from a high of $7 last year to 21 cents. Also on Monday, Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges, briefly halted trading. It was unclear if liquidity was a factor — the company blamed a “stuck transaction” and said Monday afternoon it had mostly been resolved. Celsius is a “decentralized” or “DeFI” bank that lends and borrows crypto much like a financial institution does for dollars, but without much of the usual banking infrastructure. Celsius offers exceedingly high returns to those who deposit crypto with it. Before the halt, that rate was 18.6 percent, a multiple many times that of traditional banks and has in the past climbed as high as 30 percent. That has led critics to say it does not have the assets on hand to back up the deposits should enough investors demand their money back. In the past year, state governments have asked many of the same questions. Last September, New Jersey’s Bureau of Securities sent the firm a cease-and-desist letter, while Alabama and Texas have also demanded it answer questions about its liquidity. (The firm has offices in New Jersey, as well as Europe and the Middle East.) The New York attorney general also has requested more information on Celsius’s business. The New Jersey letter noted that Celsius did “not disclose to investors the amount of money devoted to each of [its] investment activities” or “the nature and creditworthiness of the borrowers.” It said its goal was “halting the offer and sale of these unregistered securities.” Unlike traditional banks, crypto lenders have no regulatory requirement to demonstrate sufficient assets, while investors have no protection from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which insures deposits in banks, should a crypto bank lack funds during a run. A high level of interconnectedness also prevails with crypto, with many companies borrowing from or investing in each other. This potentially amplifies challenges.

The crypto industry just had one of its worst days ever — Here's what happened - Crypto has had a brutal first half of 2022, but few days have been this bad for the industry that's built itself up around digital currencies.On Monday, trading platforms halted withdrawals, companies cut jobs, and panicked investors dumped their holdings, dragging the market cap of crypto below $1 trillion, down from $3 trillion at its peak in November.Bitcoin plunged to an 18-month low, falling below $23,000. The most valuable cryptocurrency tumbled by 15% in the past 24 hours, whileethereum, which is second to bitcoin, fell 17%.The sell-off comes as investors rotate out of the riskiest assets due to macroeconomic headwinds and rising interest rates. But it's worse than that. The action on Monday showed a fundamental mistrust of cryptocurrencies and the platforms that support them. What was already a deep downturn started to look like panic selling. For weeks, concern has been growing that Celsius, one of the more popular crypto staking and lending platforms, is in the midst of a liquidity crunch. Celsius offers users yield of up to 18.63% on their deposits. It's like a product a bank would offer, except with none of the regulatory safeguards.Celsius' cel token dropped from over $7 to about 33 cents in the last year — and it's down more than 50% in the past week. Celsius is the biggest holder of the token.Meanwhile, the company's $26 billion in client funds has more than halvedsince October.Celsius had previously admitted to losing funds, though it didn't specify how much, as a result of the $120 million hack of decentralized finance platform BadgerDAO.Early Monday, Celsius shocked the market, announcing that all withdrawals, swaps, and transfers between accounts have been paused due to "extreme market conditions." In a memo addressed to the Celsius Community, the platform also said the move was designed to "stabilize liquidity and operations.""We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations," the memo said.Celsius effectively locked up its $12 billion in crypto assets under management, raising concerns about the platform's solvency. The news rippled across the crypto industry, reminding some of what happened in May, when a failed U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin project lost $60 billion in valueand dragged the wider crypto industry down with it. Shares of crypto trading platform Coinbase dropped 11% on Monday to their lowest since the company went public in April 2021.Binance also hit the pause button on Monday. The world's largest crypto exchange halted bitcoin withdrawals for over three hours "due to a stuck transaction causing a backlog."Although CEO Changpeng Zhao said the fix would only take a half hour, he later amended his estimate, saying it would take "a bit longer" than initially anticipated. By about 11:30 a.m., service had been restored."A batch of $BTC transactions got stuck due to low TX fees, resulting in a backlog of BTC network withdrawals," Binance wrote in a tweet. In a series of post-mortem tweets, the exchange noted that deposits were "unaffected" and explained that the problem stemmed from scheduled repair work.

Coinbase to lay off 18 percent of staff amid ‘crypto winter’ - Coinbase will lay off 18 percent of its workforce amid plummeting cryptocurrency prices and a global economic slowdown, the company announced Tuesday. CEO Brian Armstrong told employees in a memo that the crypto exchange needs to keep costs down to survive a bear market, which requires a “different mindset” to navigate. “We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom,” he wrote. “A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period. In past crypto winters, trading revenue (our largest revenue source) has declined significantly.” The announcement comes after cryptocurrencies took a beating to start the week. Bitcoin has plunged nearly 20 percent, a nosedive that was spurred by crypto lender Celsius Network’s decision to prevent users from pulling funds due to “extreme market conditions.” The total crypto market cap has lost $2 trillion in value in less than a year and recently dropped below $1 trillion for the first time since early 2021.

BlockFi, the Peter Thiel-backed crypto start-up, cuts 20% of its staff as bitcoin plunges - Crypto lender BlockFi is cutting around 20% of its staff as the company reckons with a dramatic downturn in digital currencies and heightened concerns about a weakening economy.CEO Zac Prince said in a tweet Monday that BlockFi has been impacted by the "dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions," which have had a "negative impact" on growth.Backed by venture capitalist Peter Thiel, BlockFi has grown dramatically in recent years, benefiting from low borrowing costs and the surge in crypto prices. Prior to the latest cuts, the company expanded from 150 employees at the end of 2020, to more than 850.BlockFi, which offers a popular savings product that lets clients accrue interest on their digital currency holdings, reportedly raised more than $957 million since launching in 2017, and was reportedly aiming for a valuation of close to $5 billion last year. However, industry publication The Blockreported last week that the company was in the process raising a down round at a valuation of around $1 billion.Crypto companies across the board are looking for ways to cut costs, as investors rotate out of the riskiest assets, pulling down trading volumes. Bitcoin is down by almost half this year after plunging 15% on Monday, while ethereum has lost two-thirds of its value in 2022, plummeting 16% to start the week. The crypto market has fallen below $1 trillion, down from $3 trillion at its peak in Nov. 2021.Crypto.com recently announced a staff reduction of 260 people, as did Gemini, which said it would be laying off 10% of its workforce — a first for the U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange and custodian. Meanwhile, Coinbase has extended its hiring pause for the "foreseeable future" and plans to rescind some job offers.Celsius, another crypto lender, has just paused all withdrawals and transfers between accounts, given the "extreme market conditions." Celsius has more than $8 billion lent out to clients, making it one of the biggest players in the crypto lending space.BlockFi publicly distanced itself from Celsius in a tweet on Monday, announcing that it "has no exposure to Celsius" and had "never worked with them as a partner." Prince said BlockFi's main goal is "to achieve profitability" and that the company is "here for the long haul."

Bitcoin (BTC) falls toward $20,000 as crypto meltdown continues - The sell-off in cryptocurrencies deepened even further on Wednesday, with bitcoin sinking very close to the key level of $20,000. Bitcoin plunged as much as 10% to an intraday low of $20,166, according to Coinbase data. It was last trading at $21,544.37, down about 2.6%, around 4:24 p.m. ET. The world's largest digital currency has plunged nearly 70% since the peak of the crypto craze in November 2021. Charlie Morris, founder of digital asset management firm ByteTree, said $20,000 was close to the peak of bitcoin's last major bull run in 2017 and so "might prove to be a support level." "At $20k, bitcoin has made no money since the 2017 high, but that disguises the outsized returns over all prior time frames," he told CNBC. Digital tokens are in free fall as fears of climbing inflation, aggressive interest rate rises and liquidity issues at a key player in the crypto space have plagued crypto markets. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points, as was widely expected. Chairman Jerome Powell also signaled that another 0.75 percentage point hike could come next month, if inflation remains high. Mostafa Al-Mashita, executive vice president of Canadian crypto firm SDM, said crypto has been caught up in the broader "risk-off environment" affecting markets. "What we are experiencing is the impact of a worsening macroeconomic trend in which inflation is rising because of supply-chain issues," he said. Celsius fallout Earlier this week, crypto lending firm Celsius began blocking users from accessing their funds, stoking speculation that the company may soon become insolvent. Investors worry a possible liquidation of Celsius may lead to even more pain for crypto, potentially knocking down other major players. "If Celsius collapses, a liquid cascade could occur where whales who have leveraged bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum become liquidated," said Marcus Sotiriou, analyst at U.K. based digital asset broker GlobalBlock. Celsius holds a lot of assets in the decentralized finance space, including staked ether, a token offered by crypto start-up Lido Finance that is meant to be worth the same as ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency.

Crypto-Carnage Hits Every Asset Class Tied to Crypto By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: It wasn’t just cryptocurrencies that crashed yesterday, it was crypto exchanges, crypto mining stocks, publicly-traded companies holding large investments in crypto, and crypto ETFs.By the time the closing bell rang yesterday, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF had tanked by 20.22 percent on the day, bringing its year-to-date loss to 50.4 percent. Other crypto-related ETFs were similarly hammered. VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF gave up 19.86 percent, bringing its year-to-date loss to 53 percent.Shares of crypto mining stocks, which were already battered and bruised, were further bloodied. Among the worst of the lot was BIT Mining Ltd. (ticker BTCM) which plunged 36.60 percent yesterday, bringing its year-to-date loss to 79.9 percent. The graphic below shows how nine other crypto mining stocks performed yesterday. Year-to-date, these stocks have lost 60 to 85 percent of their market value. The ongoing downdraft in crypto had a new fuse lit yesterday on the news that cryptocurrency lender, Celsius Network, has frozen withdrawals. The large crypto exchange, Binance, also suspended Bitcoin withdrawals for three hours yesterday morning, blaming it on a “stuck transaction.” The news of the gate locking in crypto accelerated the panic selling.The publicly-traded cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, saw its shares drop another 11.41 percent yesterday to end trading at $52.01. Coinbase went public on April 14, 2021 in a direct listing at a reference price of $250 per share. Its shares traded as high as $429.54 on its first day of trading before closing at $328.28. According to an SEC filing, Coinbase’s Chairman and CEO, Brian Armstrong, sold 750,000 shares on April 14, 2021 at an average share price of $389.10, or approximately $291.8 million in total. As of yesterday’s closing price of $52.01, public investors are now down 87 percent from where Armstrong sold his shares.Also taking big hits yesterday were publicly-traded companies that have taken big stakes in Bitcoin as a corporate “asset.”Block Inc., formerly known as Square, the company cofounded by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, owns $220 million of Bitcoin as a corporate asset. It also received 44 percent of its total net revenues from bitcoin trades on its app in this year’s first quarter, according to its most recent 10-Q filing with the SEC. In doing research yesterday on the company, we were stunned to learn that it was allowed to buy afederally-insured bank in March of 2021. Block lost 12.68 percent of its market value yesterday and is down 61 percent year-to-date. Block’s latest 10-Q that was filed with the SEC for the quarter ending March 31, 2022, exquisitely lays out a panoply of good reasons to not allow a company like this to own a federally-insured bank, backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer: “…we expect to continue to expand our markets in the future, and we may have limited or no experience in such newer markets. We cannot assure you that any of our products or services will be widely accepted in any market or that they will continue to grow in revenue. Our offerings may present new and difficult technological, operational, regulatory, risks, and other challenges, and if we experience service disruptions, failures, or other issues, our business may be materially and adversely affected. For example, our Cash App products are intended to make investing in certain assets, such as bitcoin, stocks, and exchange-traded funds, more accessible. However, as a result, our customers who use these products may experience losses or other financial impacts due to, among other things, market fluctuations in the prices of bitcoin and stocks. Our expansion into newer markets may not lead to growth and may require significant management time and attention, and we may not be able to recoup our investments in a timely manner or at all. If any of this were to occur, it could damage our reputation, limit our growth, and materially and adversely affect our business…”MicroStrategy reports in its 10-Q that it used $190.5 million of the term loan from Silvergate Bank to buy Bitcoin. That’s debt of $2.2 billion and a term loan of $190.5 million expended by a publicly-traded company for an instrument that legendary investor Warren Buffet has called “rat poison squared” and Bill Harris, the former CEO of Intuit and PayPal, has called “the greatest scam in history.” Yesterday’s panic selling comes only a month after the collapse of a so-called crypto stablecoin, TerraUSD, which was supposed to maintain a $1 peg to the dollar but instead crashed to pennies and failed to recover.

Bitcoin drops below $17,800 as sell-off accelerates — here's what happened - Bitcoin plunged to about $17,749 and ether fell to about $897 at around 4:15 E.T. on Saturday afternoon, as the sell-off in the crypto market accelerates. The world's two most popular cryptocurrencies are down more than 35% in the past week, as both breach symbolic price barriers. Bitcoin bounced back to around $18,955 and ether was trading at about $95 just after 8 p.m. ET. The carnage in the crypto market is partly caused by pressure from macroeconomic forces, including spiraling inflation and a succession of Fed rate hikes. We have also seen these blue chip cryptos track equities lower. It doesn't help that crypto firms are laying off large swaths of employees, and some of the most popular names in the industry are facing solvency meltdowns. Bitcoin peaked at $68,789.63 in November. Ether peaked at $4,891.70 that same month. Bitcoin last traded this low around December 2020.The week started with crypto prices plummeting, and bitcoin falling as much as 17% at one point in the day. It seemed like the crypto winter was here.In the chaos, Celsius, a major crypto staking and lending firm, shocked the market when it announced that all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts have been paused due to "extreme market conditions." In a memo addressed to the Celsius Community, the platform also said the move was designed to "stabilize liquidity and operations."Celsius effectively locked up its $12 billion in crypto assets under management, raising concerns about the platform's solvency. The news rippled across the crypto industry, reminding some of what happened in May, when a failed U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin project lost $60 billion in value and dragged the wider crypto industry down with it.Celsius was known for offering users a yield of up to 18.63% on their deposits. It's like a product a bank would offer, except with none of the regulatory safeguards.MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor appeared on CNBC Wednesday morning to discuss concerns around his firm, which has made a $4 billion bet on bitcoin. Saylor has said the company doubles as the first and only bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund in the U.S., so investing in MicroStrategy is the closest you'll get to a bitcoin spot ETF.MicroStrategy has used company debt to purchase bitcoin, and in March, Saylor decided to take another step toward normalizing bitcoin-backed finance when he borrowed $205 million using his bitcoin as collateral — to then buy more of the cryptocurrency."We have $5 billion in collateral. We borrowed $200 million. So I'm not telling people to go out and take a highly leveraged loan. What I am doing, I think, is doing my best to lead the way and to normalize the bitcoin-backed financing industry," said Saylor, who added that publicly traded crypto miner Marathon Digital also took out a credit line with Silvergate Bank.As bitcoin prices tanked this week, investors worried the company would be asked to put up more collateral for its loan, but Saylor said the fears were overblown."The margin call is much ado about nothing," Saylor told CNBC earlier this week. "It's just made me Twitter famous, so I appreciate that...We feel like we have a fortress balance sheet, we're comfortable, and the margin loan is well managed."Then on Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates three-quarters of a percentage point in its most aggressive hike since 1994. The Fed said the move was made in an effort to curb sky-high inflation.Crypto prices initially rallied on the news as investors hoped we could avoid a recession, but that rally was short-lived.We were back in the red on Thursday. Bitcoin fell to around $20,000, to prices it hadn't seen since the end of 2020.

Why the $2 trillion crypto market crash won't kill the economy - Carnage in the crypto market won't let up, as token prices plummet,companies lay off employees in waves, and some of the most popular names in the industry go belly up. The chaos has spooked investors, erasing more than $2 trillion in value in a matter of months — and wiping out the life savings of retail traders who bet big on crypto projects billed as safe investments.The sudden drop in wealth has stoked fears that the crypto crash might help trigger a broader recession.The crypto market's sub $1 trillion market cap (which is less than half that ofApple's) is tiny compared to the country's $21 trillion GDP or $43 trillion housing market. But U.S. households own one-third of the global crypto market, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs, and a Pew Research Center survey also found that 16% of U.S. adults said they had invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency. So there is some degree of national exposure to the deep-sell off in the crypto market.Then there's the whole mystique around the nascent crypto sector. It may be among the smaller asset classes, but the buzzy industry commands a lot of attention in popular culture, with ads on major sporting championships and stadium sponsorships.That said, economists and bankers tell CNBC they aren't worried about a knock-on effect from crypto to the broader U.S. economy for one big reason: Crypto is not tied to debt."People don't really use crypto as collateral for real-world debts. Without that, this is just a lot of paper losses. So this is low on the list of issues for the economy," said Joshua Gans, an economist at the University of Toronto.Gans says that's a big part of why the crypto market is still more of a "side show" for the economy.The relationship between cryptocurrencies and debt is key.For most traditional asset classes, their value is expected to stay moderately stable over some period of time. That is why those owned assets can then be used as collateral to borrow money."What you haven't seen with crypto assets, simply because of their volatility, is that same process by which you're able to use it to buy other real world assets or more traditional financial assets and borrow off that basis," explained Gans."People have used cryptocurrency to borrow for other cryptocurrency, but that's sort of contained in the crypto world."There are exceptions — MicroStrategy took out a $205 million bitcoin-backed loan in March with the crypto-focused bank Silvergate — but for the most part, crypto-backed loans exist within an industry-specific echo chamber.According to a recent research note from Morgan Stanley, crypto lenders have mostly been loaning to crypto investors and companies. The spillover risks from tanking crypto prices to the broader fiat U.S. dollar banking system, therefore, "may be limited."For all the enthusiasm for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, venture capitalist and celebrity investor Kevin O'Leary points out that most digital asset holdings are not institutional.Gans agrees, telling CNBC that he doubts banks are all that exposed to the crypto sell-off."There's certainly been banks and other financial institutions, which have expressed interest in crypto as an asset and as an asset that they might like their customers to also be able to invest in, but in reality, there isn't that much of that investment going on," explained Gans, noting that banks have their own set of regulations and their own need to make sure that things are appropriate investments."I don't think we've seen the sort of exposure to that that we've seen in other financial crises," he said.

Bill Gates says crypto and NFTs are '100% based on greater fool theory' - Bill Gates is not a fan of cryptocurrencies or non-fungible tokens. Speaking at a TechCrunch talk on climate change Tuesday, the billionaire Microsoft co-founder described the phenomenon as something that's "100% based on greater fool theory," referring to the idea that overvalued assets will go up in price when there are enough investors willing to pay more for them. Gates joked that "expensive digital images of monkeys" would "improve the world immensely," referring to the much-hyped Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection. NFTs are tokens that can't be exchanged for one another. They're often touted as a way to prove ownership of digital assets like art or sports collectibles. But critics see them as overhyped and potentially harmful to the environment given the energy-intensive nature of cryptocurrencies. Many NFTs are built on the network behind ethereum, the second-biggest token. "I'm used to asset classes ... like a farm where they have output, or like a company where they make products," Gates said. As for crypto, "I'm not involved in that," Gates added. "I'm not long or short any of those things." Cryptocurrencies tumbled sharply this week after Celsius, a crypto lending firm, paused all account withdrawals. The debacle has fueled fears of a looming insolvency event for Celsius — and possible knock-on effects for other parts of the crypto market. For its part, Celsius says it's "working around the clock for our community." The battered crypto world was already licking its wounds following the collapse of UST — a so-called stablecoin that was meant to be worth $1 — and luna, its sister token. At their height, both cryptocurrencies were worth a combined $60 billion. Bitcoin was last trading at $21,107 on Wednesday, down 7% in the last 24 hours. The world's biggest cryptocurrency has erased over half of its value since the start of 2022.

Banks are trying to create a world without cash — that would be a disaster for the economy -Now, much like the car salesmen in the past, purveyors of so-called cashless payments — all those bank cards, fintech platforms, and mobile apps that facilitate the transfer of digital dollars between accounts — are presenting cash as the horse-drawn cart of payments, saying that it survives only through the stubborn nostalgia of laggards. In a 2016 Super Bowl ad, PayPal launched an attack on "old money," contrasting it to a world of digital "new money." Players such as Visa and PayPal present digital money as an update to cash — the former even entered into a deal with the NFL to promote a cashless Super Bowl in 2020. Like the term "horseless carriage," the term "cashless payment" implies that some previous hindrance has been shaken off. And why hold on to an inferior system?This denigration of cash has been effective. In major cities across the world, a rash of shops have started to go cashless, especially in the wake of COVID-19. In the UK, for example, cash usage collapsed by 50% in 2020 as cash users were rejected by stores that refused to take their physical money.But cash is not an inferior system, and the idea that cash is the "horse-drawn cart of payments" is both misleading and dangerous. In fact, this rush to make the world cashless could result in millions of people getting entirely cut out of the global economy. Even people who prefer card or app payments should reject a totally cashless world. It's a world where even the tiniest of payments will have to travel via powerful financial institutions, which leaves us exposed to their surveillance and control — and also their incompetence. A payments system without cash is one dependent on banks that are prone to financial crises, systems failure, and cyberattacks.Unlike the move from horse-drawn carriages to cars, digital bank transfers are not an upgrade to the current government cash system. That's because the cash-based system underpins its "cashless" counterpart. The easiest way to understand this is through an analogy. Are casino chips an "upgrade" to the cash you might hand over to get them? No. A casino chip is a limited-purpose form of money, issued by a casino. But if you weren't able to redeem a chip for cash, it would be worthless.Many people don't realize that mainstream digital money is similar. The units you see in your bank account are "digital chips," issued to you by your bank, which you control with your payment card or mobile app. The entire digital-payments system — facilitated by companies such as Visa and Mastercard — is an elaborate network for transferring these bank-issued chips around, but they remain psychologically — and legally — anchored to the cash system. When you go to an ATM to withdraw cash, you're demanding the redemption of your chips.It's not clear whether the digital monetary system could even exist without access to cash. The digital chips promise you government-issued dollar bills, and that promise is empty if you can't get those from the ATM. Despite this, banks in many countries are hoping that people slowly forget that they have a right to get their money out of the banking system, closing down ATMs and retail bank branchesand effectively blocking the exits to the system. While older generations still make a clear distinction between "money outside the bank" (cash) and "money inside the bank" (digital bank chips), many younger people forget that there is an outside, and future generations may never know any better. As this progresses, we're getting locked into financial institutions that can watch us, influence us, and constrain us via their chokehold on the payments infrastructure. A "cashless society" would not only be a death blow to small business, it would eliminate what little privacy we have left.

Crypto bill with energy mandates fails to sway skeptics - There is growing bipartisan support in Washington for increasing federal oversight of crypto markets, but lawmakers and experts remain divided on how best to regulate the energy-intensive sector. House lawmakers have for years been introducing bipartisan bills to clarify rules for cryptocurrencies, nonfungible tokens and other blockchain-based assets. That’s because the digital assets don’t easily fit into existing regulatory structures that govern securities, commodities and other financial products. Earlier this month, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) joined the legislative debate with their “Responsible Financial Innovation Act.” The bill, S. 4356, would define cryptocurrencies as a commodity and require yearly reports from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on crypto’s energy consumption. Yet that legislation is unlikely to settle the matter, policymakers suggested yesterday. “I would like Congress to act to close the regulatory gap and give the CFTC greater authority,” said Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Christy Goldsmith Romero, at an event organized by Axios. “We have to take steps to reduce the risk that digital assets may pose.” Bitcoin and other digital assets created using proof-of-work processes require massive amounts of energy — eclipsing the annual power consumption of some developed countries. That means crypto poses climate risks, which the Biden administration is currently reviewing (Climatewire, March 10). But the CFTC commissioner stopped short of endorsing the Gillibrand-Lummis legislation. Goldsmith Romero noted that Rep. Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania, the ranking Republican on the House Agriculture Committee, introduced the “Digital Commodity Exchange Act,” H.R. 7614, earlier this year with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a member of the panel’s Commodity Exchanges, Energy and Credit Subcommittee. She also said Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and John Boozman (R-Ark.), the leaders of the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, “are about to introduce a similar bill in terms of giving the CFTC more authority.” Stabenow’s office confirmed the broad outlines of Goldsmith Romero’s comments but declined to provide additional details about the legislation or when they’ll release it. “Recent events underscore the need for mandatory federal regulation of the crypto marketplace,” Stabenow said in a written statement. “It is critical that the CFTC has the proper tools to make this emerging market safe for customers,” added Stabenow, who chairs the Senate Agriculture panel. “My Committee has examined the risks and the importance of commonsense regulations and I am working closely with Ranking Member Boozman on what a responsible regulatory framework would look like.”

The Fed Fingers Its Worry Beads: Mortgage Rates Double in Six Months to 6.28 Percent; Crypto Crashes; Layoffs Explode in FinTech - by Pam Martens -Wall Street does not have exclusivity on the pain trade. There’s pain at the pump for average Americans, pain at the grocery store, and now, adding to the pain for American home buyers who have watched the cost of homes spiral upward over the past year, the national average on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage just spiked to 6.28 percent as of yesterday.Mortgage News Daily reported the following yesterday: “The average lender is quoting top tier 30yr fixed rates in the 6.25-6.375% range, but as we discussed yesterday, it’s cheaper than normal to buy one’s rate down. That means rates in the high 5’s are still being quoted, but those quotes imply higher upfront costs (aka ‘points’).”Interest rates on the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are also rising at a breathtaking pace – effectively doing much of the Fed’s tightening work for it.As the chart below indicates, the yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed from 1.25 percent at the beginning of the year to trade at a yield of 3.488 percent as of 8:10 a.m. (ET) this morning, after touching an intraday high of 3.59 percent earlier today. Likewise, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which began the year at 1.50 percent, is trading this morning at 3.38 percent – an inverted yield from the 5-year Treasury. (When longer-dated Treasuries are yielding less than shorter-dated ones, the yield curve is said to have “inverted.” Wall Street interprets this as a signal from markets that there is a growing risk of recession, since the lower yields farther out the curve suggest that a slowdown in economic activity is coming.) Indeed, there is evidence of a slowdown and layoffs in one part of the economy: the new economy that Wall Street cooked up for America this time around with its FinTech blitz. For how this might all end, one might recall how the dot.com bust ended after Wall Street collected all of those fat underwriting fees for bringing dot.com companies to public markets as hot IPOs while their analysts were internally calling them “dogs” and “crap.”On June 2, the Winklevoss twins (Tyler and Cameron) announced that their crypto exchange, Gemini, would be cutting 10 percent of its workforce. They wrote to their employees that “After much thought and consideration, we have made the difficult but necessary decision to part ways with approximately 10% of our workforce.” They referred to the crash in the value of anything connected to crypto as “crypto winter,” writing as follows in a statement to employees:“The crypto revolution is well underway and its impact will continue to be profound. But its trajectory has been anything but gradual or predictable. Its path can best be described as punctuated equilibrium — periods of equilibrium or stasis that are punctuated by dramatic moments of hypergrowth, followed by sharp contractions that settle down to a new equilibrium that is higher than the one before. This is where we are now, in the contraction phase that is settling into a period of stasis — what our industry refers to as ‘crypto winter.’ This has all been further compounded by the current macroeconomic and geopolitical turmoil. We are not alone.”Possibly scouting for a new career, the Winklevoss twins were recently seen singing off key with their band in a rock club in New Jersey. (You can’t make this stuff up.)

Crypto experts are shrugging off the bitcoin crash, here's why – CNN --Cryptocurrency is having a terrible week. And it's only Wednesday.Still, long-term investors are shrugging off the extreme drops in the a value of digital coins and the breakdown of the exchanges that make them available to investors.Bitcoin, the world's most valuable cryptocurrency, dropped to near $21,000 Wednesday. It's lost a quarter of its value since Friday and is sitting nearly 70% below its high of $68,000 per coin in November. Ether, the second most valuable digital currency, has lost about a third of its value since Friday and has dropped 75% below its highs.More concerning are the structural problems rendering it impossible for investors to withdraw their money from crypto exchanges. Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, paused withdrawals for a few hours Monday, saying some transactions had gotten "stuck." The Celsius Network, which has 1.7 million users, temporarily halted withdrawals due to "extreme market conditions." They did not say when they would reopen the exchanges, indicating only that it would "take time."Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume,announced Tuesday that it would lay off about 18% of its workforce, citing a recession that "could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period."So far, at least, leaders in the cryptosphere aren't too worried. They say that this is par for the course and that a bear market in crypto isn't the same as a bear market for stocks: the lows are more extreme, but then so are the highs."Crypto bear markets usually draw down between 85% and 90%," said Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of Blockworks, a research platform for crypto investors, executives and builders. In the last decade, two prolonged crypto downturns saw bitcoin lose more than 80% of its value, but the coin bounced back — and then some.During the 2017 to 2018 crypto bear market, bitcoin plummeted 83%, from $19,423 to $3,217. But by November of 2021, the coin was valued at $68,000. During the same period etherium fell from $1,448 to $85, a drop of about 95%. In November of 2021 the coin was valued at $4,850. The bear market between 2013 and 2015 also saw bitcoin fall about 82%, from $1,127 to $200."If you bought [bitcoin] at the peak of the 2017 bull run (around $20,000), you saw a decline of 80% over the following year. But if you continued to hold, you'd be up nearly 60% right now — even after the crypto market's most recent decline from all-time highs last November," said Felix Honigwachs, CEO of Xchange Monster.

BankThink: Gillibrand-Lummis crypto bill ignores the lessons of history | American Banker - Titles VI and VII of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, introduced by Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Cynthia Lummis, would authorize the chartering of unsafe, unsound, and uninsured stablecoin banks. Their bill ignores crucial lessons from the past 50 years of financial regulation and could plant the seeds for the next banking crisis. Title VI would authorize the states and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to charter special-purpose banks that issue stablecoins. Stablecoins are digital assets that are redeemable on demand and promise to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar or another designated fiat currency. Stablecoins are digital deposits, but the Gillibrand-Lummis bill would allow stablecoin banks to operate without federal deposit insurance. The bill would also permit stablecoin banks to engage in a variety of “incidental” activities. Title VII would require the Fed to provide stablecoin banks with master accounts. Those master accounts would enable stablecoin banks to receive Fed payment and settlement services, including Fed guarantees for payments made on Fedwire, daylight overdraft privileges, and instant payment services under the forthcoming FedNow program. National stablecoin banks chartered by the OCC would become Fed member banks and could borrow from the Fed’s discount window.

SEC’s Gensler warns about crypto lenders offering high returns Gary Gensler has a message for people pouring money into crypto on promises of high returns: beware. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chief on Tuesday repeated his warnings over lending platforms. Gensler said investors need to be wary of claims of double-digit interest rates. “They’re operating a little bit like banks,” he said in remarks delivered virtually at the RFK Human Rights Compass Summer Investors Conference. “I caution the public.”

Crypto trade group chief will run for New York seat in House -- The head of a crypto-focused trade association has decided to run for an open House seat from New York. Michelle Bond, CEO of the Association for Digital Asset Markets, kicked off a campaign Thursday for a seat held by Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin. A member of the House Financial Services Committee, Zeldin is retiring after the current congressional term to run for governor of New York. Bond, who will run as a Republican, previously served as a legal staffer for the Senate Banking Committee as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission.

For banks, Fed’s aggressive rate hike cuts both ways - The Federal Reserve’s 75-basis-point interest rate hike Wednesday, the largest increase since 1994, will almost certainly bolster banks’ 2022 earnings, analysts say — but the steep increase signals a stronger threat of a recession.The Fed’s third rate increase of the year, with another looming in July, "will probably induce a slowdown in the economy,” Rohit Arora, CEO of the New York-based Biz2Credit, said in an interview. “Whether it leads to a full-blown recession or a mild recession is something to be seen." The Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate rose to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% following policymakers’ decision Wednesday.

Warren urges OCC to block TD-First Horizon deal Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is urging the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to reject Toronto-Dominion Bank’s $13.4 billion acquisition of First Horizon, citing concerns about customer abuse. In a letter co-signed by Reps. Katie Porter, D-Calif., Al Green, D-Texas, and Jesus Garcia, D-Ill., Warren cited a report by Capitol Forum that found TD used similar employee incentives as those that contributed to the fake-accounts scandal at Wells Fargo. The Canadian bank, according to the letter, used a point system that incentivized employees to “push as many customers into overdraft protection as possible, threatening employees with lost bonuses or even firings if goals were not met.” TD employees would report account fraud or “ ‘fictitious problems’ to consumers to encourage them to open up even more accounts," according to the letter.

CFPB’s tactics in Fifth Third lawsuit called ‘pretty aggressive’ - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is getting blowback from a federal judge and banking experts for tactics used in its lawsuit accusing Fifth Third Bancorp of opening phony consumer accounts.The CFPB sued the $211 billion-asset Cincinnati bank in 2020, alleging employees opened checking, savings and credit card accounts without customers’ consent. Fifth Third customers began complaining soon after the CFPB sent them an email this March with the subject line “Your Feedback Requested for Fifth Third Bank Lawsuit.” Fifth Third sought an emergency intervention in federal court, saying the bureau’s actions had interfered with its customer relationships. Judge Douglas Cole of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio put a halt in April to the mass email — first reported by Crain’s Chicago Business — that went to 18,500 customers and former employees of Fifth Third.

BankThink: CFPB's data collection proposal would harm the very borrowers it aims to help | American Banker - Community banks support ensuring lenders meet the credit needs of all small businesses in accordance with fair lending laws, but policymakers must account for the potential harm of any new regulations on the entities they are designed to help. With community banks leading the nation in small-business lending, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should tailor its proposed data collection and reporting requirements for small-business loans to avoid restricting access to credit in local communities.Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act directs the CFPB to implement rules requiring lenders to collect and report data on credit applicants. The law specifies several data points financial institutions must compile on applications from women-owned, minority-owned and small businesses, including the race, sex and ethnicity of the principal owners as well as gross annual revenue. While these requirements are mandated by law, the CFPB nevertheless has the authority to exempt any class of financial institutions from the standards it develops and to limit mandatory data points to those required by statute. To mitigate the potentially harmful impact of these new reporting burdens on small-business lending, community banks are encouraging the CFPB to exercise its authority to tailor its rulemaking.

Former OCC chief says he urged big bank not to block card purchases of guns — Brian Brooks says that while acting comptroller of the currency during the Trump administration he urged the head of a major bank not to ban its customers from buying firearms with the bank’s cards. Brooks declined to name the bank, calling it “one of the two largest banks in the United States.” Its CEO told him that bank officials were considering whether to bar firearms purchases with its credit or debit cards, Brooks said Monday in recounting the conversation. “What’s next, you don’t like me reading a right-wing magazine or a left-wing magazine?” former acting comptroller Brian Brooks says he told a bank CEO who within the last two years considered barring the use of the bank's credit and debit cards from being used to buy firearms. The conversation happened “in the wake of Sandy Hook and some other things,” Brooks said. Brooks served as acting comptroller from late May 2020 to January 2021, well after the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012, but not long after the Virginia Beach and El Paso Walmart shootings in 2019, and amid a number of shootings that didn’t have more than 10 fatalities, excluding those of perpetrators.

Stocks enter bear market as Wall Street braces for more rate hikes --Stocks on Monday continued a massive sell-off that started last week on news that inflation had reached a 40-year high and has yet to hit a ceiling despite a monetary tightening program begun by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 dropped 3.87 percent Monday to hit 3,749 from 3,900. This constitutes a move into a bear market for one of the premier indices of U.S. stocks, having fallen more than 20 percent since its recent high of 4,796 in January. In the two trading days since Friday, the index has dropped more than 6.5 percent from 4,017. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of major U.S. companies fell 2.79 percent Monday to hit 30,518 from 31,459. The index has seen a drop of around 17 percent since its January high. The Russell 2000 index of smaller U.S. stocks fell more than 4.9 percent Monday, having already entered bear territory on a plunge of nearly 25 percent since the beginning of the year. The bond market also saw a sell-off Monday that drove up yields and that analysts likened to a Federal Reserve rate hike in its own right. The two-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 27 basis points to hit almost 3.34 percent, with the 10-year note making a similar jump of 22 basis points to offer a 3.37 percent yield. With the two-year yield rising above the yield of the 10-year note, the bond market saw an “inversion” that is widely seen as a harbinger of recession. The 30-year Treasury note popped 0.17 percent to a yield of about 3.36 percent, just slightly steadier than its shorter-term counterparts that are more sensitive to movements in interest rates. Those rates are expected to increase again this week after a meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday. The committee has signaled it will continue to raise rates by 50 basis points at its next several meetings, although there is speculation that a 75-point hike could be under consideration. The goal of the Fed’s rate hikes is a “soft landing,” meaning a drop in prices spurred on by a spike in the cost of borrowing money that doesn’t slow the economy enough to cause a recession. It’s a difficult needle for the Fed to thread since the interest rate hikes that increase the purchasing power of the dollar also tend to diminish capital flows and constrict overall growth. Consumer sentiment is making this task even more difficult, since consumers are increasingly seeing inflation as inherent to the overall conditions in the economy. Year-ahead median inflation expectations rose to 6.6 percent in May, up from 6.3 percent, tying a record high since the survey began in June 2013, according to the Fed’s latest household spending expectations survey published Monday. Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations stayed steady at 3.9 percent. The “sharp rise” in year-ahead inflation expectations, as the Fed characterized it, follows the worst-ever decline of consumer sentiment recorded in the most recent poll from the University of Michigan, which conducts a flagship survey on consumer mood. The survey found that “consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession. All components of the sentiment index fell this month, with the steepest decline in the year-ahead outlook in business conditions, down 24% from May.” Wall Street titans have been feeling similarly pessimistic over the past few weeks, with Tesla chief Elon Musk having a “super bad feeling” about the economy and threatening layoffs to the tune of 10 percent of salaried employees, according to Reuters, citing company emails. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted a coming economic “hurricane” earlier this month and warned that investors should brace themselves for worsening conditions.

Five U.S. Megabanks Have Lost $300 Billion in Market Cap in One Year; Crypto Is in Meltdown this Morning; and the Fed Will Hike Rates Further on Wednesday -By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 13, 2022 ~Welcome to Monday morning and market hell.As of 8:47 a.m. (ET) this morning, Dow futures are down 553 points; Bitcoin futures have lost 17 percent of their value on the news that cryptocurrency lender, Celsius Network, has frozen withdrawals. The 5-year Treasury note has spiked to yield 3.38 percent, a 50-basis point increase in a month, leading to an inverted yield curve against the 10-year Treasury note, which is trading at 9:01 a.m. (ET) this morning at a yield of 3.27 percent. (An inversion signals a rising recession risk.)All of this comes as the Fed has signaled that it will announce another interest rate hike this Wednesday, following the two-day meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Stocks are developing a habit of tanking one day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his FOMC Wednesday afternoon press conference, so watch out for stock market activity this Thursday.The Fed has also announced that on Thursday of next week, June 23, at 4:30 p.m. (after the stock market closes) it will announce the results of its stress tests of the G-SIBs, the Global Systemically Important Banks. It can’t be too comforting to the Fed that the same banks that cratered the global economy in 2008, and required a mind-blowing $29 trillion bailout, have a lot less capital than they had one year ago.As of last Friday’s closing prices, five U.S. megabanks that constitute the core of the U.S. financial system have $300 billion less common equity market capitalization than they had one year ago on June 10, 2021.Citigroup, which has fared the worst of the lot in terms of percentage decline, is down 38 percent year-over-year with a market cap plunge of $56.6 billion. JPMorgan Chase’s share price is down 25 percent year-over-year but its market cap loss makes Citigroup look like a piker. JPMorgan Chase has seen its market cap evaporate by $120 billion in one year. That’s because it has a bizarrely large 2.94 billion shares outstanding that have been bleeding.Bank of America has lost 20 percent year-over-year with a market cap loss of $68.67 billion. Morgan Stanley is down 16 percent year-over-year for a market cap loss of $25 billion; and Goldman Sachs has given up 23 percent year-over-year with a market cap decline of $29.85 billion. The five megabanks that the Office of Financial Research says make up the core of the U.S. financial system have lost a combined $300 billion in market cap year-over-year and the Fed is still tightening monetary policy. But that’s not even the worst of the news. U.S. megabanks are heavily interconnected to foreign megabanks through trillions of dollars in notional derivatives. Despite the economic devastation in 2008 from derivatives, the Fed and Congress have continued to allow foreign megabanks to serve as counterparties to U.S. megabanks’ derivatives. (U.S. megabanks also serve as counterparties to each other’s derivatives.)The share prices of foreign megabanks are doing even worse than those of U.S. megabanks. Credit Suisse’s ADR closed on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange at $6.17, a year-over-year decline of more than 40 percent. Nomura has lost more than 30 percent year-over-year while the serially-troubled Deutsche Bank, which was a $120 stock in 2007, closed on Friday in New York at $9.98.

 First EV SPAC Announces its Stock Will Go to Zero and Die - by Wolf Richter - Electric Last Mile Solutions, an EV startup that went public in June 2021 via merger with a SPAC, was featured on May 30 in my article on EV SPACs and IPOs that are already announcing that they’re running out of cash. At the time, the company said that its cash would last only “into June.”I wrote – because you just have to keep your sense of humor about these shenanigans – that “Electric Last Mile has the unique opportunity to be the first EV SPAC in this cycle to go to zero because its cash-burn machine ran out of cash. No hard feelings, folks, this is just how the game is being played during bubbles, and someone always gets to hold the bag.”OK, so now, we’re “into June,” and here comes the SEC filing about the company’s decision to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 7 covers liquidation, not restructuring. It’s the end. Meaning the company’s assets, if any, get sold to the highest bidder, and the lawyers and some creditors will get the proceeds, if any, and the stockholders will get to hold the bag and get nothing. So the company said in the SEC filing:“On June 12, 2022, following a comprehensive review with the assistance of the Company’s outside advisors, and upon the recommendation of the Company’s management, the Board determined that it is in the best interest of the Company and the Company’s stockholders, stakeholders, creditors, and other interested parties to commence the Chapter 7 Case. The Company is currently completing preparations for the Chapter 7 Case.“Following the commencement of the Chapter 7 Case, a Chapter 7 trustee will be appointed by the Bankruptcy Court to administer the Company’s estate and to perform the duties set forth in Section 704 of the Code.” Upon the news, the stock [ELMS] kathoomphed 62% today from nearly nothing to almost nothing, to $0.20 a share, from $0.51 on Friday. It’s down 98% from the high on June 28, 2021 (data via YCharts):

 Margin Debt Unwinds Further amid Massacre of High-Flying Stocks and Forced Selling by Wolf Richter - Margin debt – the visible tip of the iceberg of the direction of overall stock-market leverage – dropped by $20 billion in May from April, to $753 billion, according to Finra, based on reports from its member brokers. Margin debt had peaked in October 2021 at $936 billion, and began to decline in November 2021.The Nasdaq peaked in mid-November as margin debt began to unwind and has since plunged 33%. The S&P 500 peaked on the first trading day in January, as margin debt was beginning to plunge. And the S&P 500 has since then dropped 22%.In the seven months since the peak in October, margin debt has dropped by $183 billion, or by 20%, from the gigantic levels last year, an indicator of the turmoil in the market, but also an indicator that leverage is still extremely high and has a long way to go:Sharp increases in margin debt are associated with increases in stock prices because leverage creates buying pressure with borrowed money; but then the tables turn, and in a vicious mechanism that includes margin calls, major stock market events are associated with sharp declines in leverage. Margin debt can serve as an effective warning about issues in the stock market.The absolute amount of leverage in the stock market, across all forms of leverage, is unknown and no one tracks it. Margin debt reported by brokers is the only form of stock market leverage that is tracked and reported on a monthly basis.Another form of stock market leverage, Securities Based Lending (SBL), is sporadically and partially reported by banks on their annual reports or their quarterly reports. Some banks give amounts, other banks lump it in with other forms of lending. There is no total metric for the amounts of SBL across all banks.Other forms of stock market leverage include hedge funds and family offices that are leveraged at the institutional level. This is not tracked either. They do get margin calls, and every now and then, one of them collapses. It’s only then, when creditors pick through the debris, that the world discovers how much leverage there was.Other forms of leverage include stock-based derivative products, such as those that felled the family office Archegos in March 2021, wiping out billions of dollars in capital at the prime brokers that had provided the leverage. No one tracked this leverage. Apparently not even banks and brokers that funded it knew at the time how much total leverage their client had from all brokers combined.Brutal collapses of hype-and-hoopla stocks that get chopped down 80% or 90% in a matter of months trigger forced selling amid the margined crowd that was planning to get rich quick on those stocks and that therefore had concentrated holdings of these stocks. Hundreds of stocks have collapsed, starting in February 2021, and I’ve documented some of them in myImploded Stocks.Here are some well-known names whose share prices have collapsed. There are many more lesser-known names out there, including the EV SPAC, Electric Last Mile, that already announced that its stock will go to zero and die as it will file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation one year after going public. Now imagine the margin calls these collapses triggered (percentages from their highs through June 14 mid-day): (long list)

White House backs Maxine Waters’ financial-equity bill — The White House threw its support behind a House bill that would require the Federal Reserve to promote economic equality across racial and ethnic groups. In a statement of administration policy released on Monday afternoon, the White House said it would support the passage of HR 2543, otherwise known as the Federal Reserve Racial and Economic Equity Act. The bill, sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters, was approved by the committee in January and was queued up by the House Rules Committee last week. A floor vote is likely in the near future. “The administration strongly supports efforts to promote equity for underserved communities and increase access to safe and affordable financial services, wealth and economic opportunity for all Americans,” the White House said in endorsing the Federal Reserve Racial and Economic Equity Act sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters. “Too often, consumers and businesses from underserved communities struggle to access capital and credit,” the White House statement said. “This bill recognizes these challenges and takes steps to increase transparency and accountability around small-business lending.”

House markup postponed after Waters again tests positive for COVID — The House Financial Services Committee postponed a scheduled markup session Tuesday after the Democratic chair tested positive for COVID-19 for the second time this spring. The session, originally slated to begin Tuesday morning, was postponed via email at noon Eastern Time. Lawmakers had been scheduled to discuss bills that would fund housing initiatives, limit the use of industrial loan company charters and introduce new limits on banks’ ability to collect overdraft fees. Shortly after 1 p.m. ET, the committee announced that Chair Maxine Waters, D-Calif., had tested positive for COVID-19. In a statement, Waters said that she was experiencing no symptoms: “I am feeling fine and resting at home,” she said.

 GOP attorneys general push back against SEC climate change disclosure initiative - Two dozen GOP attorneys general wrote to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday claiming a proposed rule would promote “policy preferences far afield of the Commission’s market-focused domain.” “This effort reflects agency mission creep of the worst kind,” the attorneys general wrote in their letter objecting to the rule. The SEC rule in question, known as “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors,” would force publicly traded companies to disclose how climate change could threaten their businesses and their own contributions to global warming.“The administration has tried and failed to impose regulation directly, and it now appears content to use back-door financial regulatory actions to implement its political will. But it is up to lawmakers to decide major policy questions like these, not unelected agency administrators,” the Wednesday letter added.The attorneys general, led by West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, further alleged that, if the rule was finalized, they “expect the Commission will use it as a precedent for asserting many new powers in extra-statutory ways.”

SEC climate rule draws comment cacophony - A wonky climate proposal by the Securities and Exchange Commission has caught the attention of powerful lobbying associations, climate groups, academics, egg farmers — and even a climate-finance-concerned high school student. The SEC proposed the landmark rule in March, kick-starting U.S. efforts to shield the financial system from climate-fueled threats. If finalized, the rule would for the first time require publicly listed companies to disclose to investors, regulators and the public their risks from — and contributions to — global warming. The proposal’s three-month comment period on the nearly 500-page rule ends today. Already, more than 8,000 comments from a wide range of organizations and individuals have been posted to the SEC website. More letters, including from influential trade groups and companies, will be posted in the coming days from those who waited until the last minute to respond. But the comments that already have been published make clear where different types of organizations will likely fall on the rule’s most controversial provisions — and the tough road ahead for the SEC as it forges the final version. Observers say the comments are critical because they offer a snapshot into how opponents might challenge the rule in the courts down the road and what evidence the agency will have in its arsenal to defend itself. “Our goal is to see this rule implemented. And therefore our efforts went toward ways to show this rule is perfectly within the SEC’s mandate,” said Tracey Lewis, who serves as policy counsel at Public Citizen, a progressive group. So what would the rule do? And why is it so controversial? The rule as currently proposed would apply only to publicly listed companies. It would ask them to infuse their SEC filings with climate-related information, including additional details about their long-term climate strategies and ongoing efforts to address potential climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions. At a high level, comments from sustainable finance experts, green groups, and some major companies and investors seem to agree that the proposal is well within the SEC’s remit and would provide markets with much-needed information about public companies’ exposure to climate-fueled threats. Harvard University’s John Coates, who formerly served as general counsel for the SEC, argued in his comment that because the rule is focused squarely on the issue of disclosure, it falls within the agency’s jurisdiction. “It does not regulate climate activity itself (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions) and would have modest effects on the economy as a whole. It is authorized by clear statutes, is consistent with settled understandings, and addresses disclosure topics covered by rules adopted long ago by the Commission and ratified by Congress,” Coates wrote.. While many companies already provide some climate-related disclosure on a voluntary basis, proponents say a formal rule is necessary to ensure that information is consistent, reliable and can actually be used by investors to make financial decisions.

Banks push back against SEC’s proposed climate risk disclosure rules — Banking groups asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to significantly scale back its climate risk disclosure proposal, arguing the requirements would be onerous for the industry and could conflict with burgeoning efforts by bank regulators. The comment period on the SEC’s roughly 500-page climate disclosure proposal, which would require publicly traded companies to disclose climate-related information, including a firm’s carbon emissions across its value chain, closes Friday. The proposal has already drawn a wide array of commentary, with groups representing large banks criticizing its breadth and the cost of complying with the enhanced disclosure requirements. The Bank Policy Institute and the Financial Services Forum urged the SEC to narrow the proposal’s scope, and to let any guidance by bank regulators preempt rules written by the SEC. Banks already disclose some climate-related data, the groups said, and requirements should hew closer to the kinds of data that banks have already built up infrastructure to collect and distribute.

Did bank regulators just get a green light for climate stress tests? Internationally active banks could soon be required to conduct internal scenario analyses and undergo stress tests related to climate change. Both measures were called for as part of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s newly finalized guidelines for climate-change supervision and management, which were released Wednesday. Prudential regulators and banks around the world are now tasked with incorporating the 18-point framework into their supervisory standards “as soon as possible,” allowing for some discrepancies among nations based on their respective legal systems.

CFPB official voices concern over high-cost consumer loan partnerships The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is scrutinizing high-cost loan partnerships between banks and some online consumer lenders, an agency official said Wednesday, calling the arrangements “rent-a-bank schemes.” The comments indicate Biden administration regulators could take action to limit the partnerships, which offer credit to consumers who typically struggle to get traditional loans. Borrowers sometimes end up paying triple-digit interest rates. An official at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau indicated in remarks Wednesday that the agency is sympathetic to consumer advocates’ criticism of partnerships that enable nonbanks to offer high-cost consumer loans. Consumer advocates have long sought a regulatory crackdown on the partnerships, saying that digital lenders are essentially using bank charters to make loans at interest rates they would not be able to charge on their own because of state interest rate caps. The comments by CFPB Deputy Director Zixta Martinez, who spoke to a group of consumer advocates at a conference, suggested the agency is taking a similar view.

CFPB seeks input on customer service issues at large banks, credit unions - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a request for information on customer service at large banks and credit unions as part of a broader effort to improve relationship banking. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra on Tuesday asked for public input to determine whether customers are able to get prompt responses from the 175 banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. Some large banks and credit unions may not be offering a high level of customer service that consumers expect when they encounter problems, Chopra said.

 CFPB plans to review Qualified Mortgage, Card Act rules -- Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said the bureau plans to conduct a review of the Qualified Mortgage rule and credit card rules. In a blog post on Friday, Chopra announced that the bureau will take a fresh look at Trump-era changes to underwriting standards in the QM rule and two long-standing credit card rules. “Many of these rules have now been tested in the marketplace for many years and are in need of a fresh look,” Chopra wrote.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - Note: This was before the recent surge in 3-year mortgage rates to over 6%.From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 10, 2022. Last week’s results are compared to the prior week, which included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.... The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 76 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 18 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago."Mortgage rates increased for all loan types, with the 30-year fixed rate last week jumping 25 basis points to 5.65 percent – the highest level since 2008. Mortgage rates followed Treasury yields up in response to higher-than-expected inflation and anticipation that the Federal Reserve will need to raise rates at a faster pace,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the increase in rates, application activity rebounded following the Memorial Day holiday week but remained 0.29 percent below pre-holiday levels. With mortgage rates well above 5 percent, refinance activity continues to run more than 70 percent lower than last year.”, “Purchase applications were down more than 15 percent compared to last year, as ongoing inventory shortages and affordability challenges have cooled demand, coinciding with the rapid jump in mortgage rates.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.65 percent from 5.40 percent, with points increasing to 0.71 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase indexAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted.

30-Year Mortgage Rates Increase to 6.13% - From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: MBS Live Morning: From Bad to Worse as CPI Reaction Continues Bonds are in the midst of a full-blown capitulation move with 10yr yields currently up over 16bps at 3.32%. MBS are down roughly a full point. These aren't the biggest losses we've ever seen in a day, but they're extraordinarily big losses to be experiencing at the top of trend that has already covered as much ground as the one seen so far in 2022....Long story short, the market is freaked out about what Friday means for the policy outlook. Wednesday continues to be one of the biggest flashpoints for bond volatility we've seen in a long time.This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) over the last year. The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 6.13% today, up from 5.55% last Thursday.Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.

Mortgage rates hit 5.78 percent in record spike -Interest payments for the U.S. benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage saw the largest one-week upward movement in 35 years, hitting 5.78 percent as of Thursday. The rate jumped more than half a percentage point in the last week and is nearly double what it was a year ago, according to government-backed mortgage lender Freddie Mac. That means a monthly mortgage payment on a roughly median-valued $400,000 home, after a 20 percent down payment, would now be $1,874. Last year, the monthly payment on the same home would have been $1,335 — a difference of more than $500. The spiking mortgage rate comes as the Federal Reserve announced this week its own 75 basis point hike in the federal funds rate, which determines the lending rates used by financial institutions. The uptick was higher than the 50-basis point hike the Fed had originally signaled as part of the central bank’s battle against inflation, which stands now at 8.6 percent, a 40-year high. The higher mortgage rates “are the result of a shift in expectations about inflation and the course of monetary policy,” Sam Khater, chief economist with Freddie Mac, said in a statement. “Higher mortgage rates will lead to moderation from the blistering pace of housing activity that we have experienced coming out of the pandemic, ultimately resulting in a more balanced housing market,” Khater said. The latest data on the 15-year fixed rate mortgage puts it at 4.81 percent, up from 2.24 percent this time last year. The 5-year adjustable rates mortgage hit 4.33 percent this week, up from 2.52 percent last year. Mortgage rates are translating into diminished home sales as well as reduced home construction rates as the housing market cools off in the wake of the broader economic recovery from the pandemic.

That Was Fast: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Spikes to 6.18%, 10-Year Treasury Yield to 3.43%. Home Sellers Face New Reality – Wolf Richter - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today spiked to 6.18%, from 5.85% on Friday, according to the daily index by Mortgage News Daily. Aside from the sheer magnitude of the spike, this was also the highest mortgage rate since collection of the daily data began in April 2009. This was lightning fast, with mortgage rates nearly doubling since the beginning of the year (chart via Mortgage News Daily): Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, but there is a spread between them, and the spread varies. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 28 basis points today, to 3.43% at the close, a huge move, and the highest since April 2011:But wait…Back in the day, before QE and interest rate repression, 6% mortgages were considered low, I mean super-low, and I thought I got a great deal with my 15-year mortgage in 1989 at 8%! There are folks here that remember 15% mortgage rates. We didn’t even see 6% 30-year mortgages until 2002.Freddie Mac’s data goes back to the early 1970s (though the June 9 release lags today’s daily measure by about a week). It shows just how fast mortgage rates have bounced off from record low levels, and how comparatively low they still are: So let’s see. The Greenspan Fed ginned up the idea to cut interest rates following the dotcom bust to create a housing bubble in order to take over from the imploded stock market bubble. This worked, and we got a housing bubble, to which the Fed responded by raising interest rates again to over 5%, which worked and caused the housing bubble to implode, which triggered the mortgage crisis, which performed a rug-pull under the over-leveraged banks, upon which the Fed rolled out its new dual-weapon QE and 0% interest-rate policy, which worked, and it inflated all asset prices, bailed out the bondholders and stockholders of the banks, and soon it triggered the next housing bubble, but much more magnificent than anything before, etc. etc.You know the drill. But this time, we got a new thingy: Raging consumer price inflation, like we haven’t seen in 40 years, and all bets are off. Raging inflation does a lot of long-term damage to the economy, to the currency, to businesses, and to the people, and it’s time to crack down. Well, not really cracking down, just slowly raising short term policy rates from near 0% to still very low levels, and ending QE finally, and slowly starting QT.So that’s not really a crackdown, but seeing how massively markets have reacted to this little bitty policy action shows just how overinflated all assets have become, thanks to 12 years of QE and interest rate repression – 12 years of Fed policy errors – and how hard it will be to unwind all this craziness back to some normalcy. But inflation is now raging, and all bets of a Fed put are off.After 12 years of money printing and interest rate repression, home prices have ballooned to the point where higher mortgage rates have a very different impact than they had back in the day.Each time mortgage rates rise just a little at current prices, they take a new layer of potential buyers out of the market. And transaction volume sags, and homes begin to sit on the market, and inventory is piling up. So it cannot happen here, they say, but it’s already happening, even in May before the current spike in mortgage rates, as inventories jumped in amid price reductions and sagging sales, because there is one way for sellers to nail down a deal: Cut the price enough to where the next buyers can afford the mortgage.

Housing Inventory June 13th Update: Inventory up 15.9% Year-over-year -Altos reports inventory is up 15.9% year-over-year. Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 64% since then. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 10th, inventory was at 396 thousand (7-day average), compared to 375 thousand the prior week.Inventory was up 5.6% from the previous week.Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 15.9% from 342 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 43.2% from 698 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 58.3% from 950 thousand.Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 43.2% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 58.2%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. My current guess is inventory will be up in Q4 compared to the same week in 2020.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

May Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: May Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction. Excerpt:Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell started to mention the record number of housing units under construction, see: Fed Chair Powell: "Homebuyers need a bit of a reset"“How much will it affect housing prices? Not really sure. Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully. You’d think over time … There is a tremendous amount of supply in the housing market of unfinished homes … and as those come online …”And then he quickly changed direction. Perhaps he was concerned about spooking homebuyers about the coming increase in new supply. The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 822 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This matches last month as the highest level since November 2006. The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 843 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since April 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are a record 1.665 million units under construction. This above the previous record of 1.628 million units that were under construction in 1973 (mostly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation). There is much more in the post.

May Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions -- Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000. This is 14.4 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,810,000 and is 3.5 percent below the May 2021 rate of 1,605,000. Single‐family housing starts in May were at a rate of 1,051,000; this is 9.2 percent below the revised April figure of 1,157,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 469,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,695,000. This is 7.0 percent below the revised April rate of 1,823,000, but is 0.2 percent above the May 2021 rate of 1,691,000. Single‐family authorizations in May were at a rate of 1,048,000; this is 5.5 percent below the revised April figure of 1,109,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 592,000 in May. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble). Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in May compared to April. Multi-family starts were unchanged year-over-year in May. Single-family starts (red) decreased in May and were down 5.3% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in May were well below expectations, however, starts in March and April, were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2021 (blue) and 2022 (red). Total starts were down 3.5% in May compared to May 2021. Total starts, year-to-date, are up 8.2% compared to the same period in 2021. The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 822 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This matches last month as the highest level since November 2006. The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 843 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since April 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure. Combined, there are a record 1.665 million units under construction. This is above the previous record of 1.628 million units that were under construction in 1973 (mostly apartments in 1973 for the baby boom generation). Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12-month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Starts have picked up, but completions (red) have turned down - due to the construction delays. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single-family home and completion - so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

 Homebuilder Sentiment Tumbles Back Below Pre-COVID Levels --The headline NAHB sentiment index fell in June from 69 to 67 (as expected), with all three sub-indices tumbling back below pre-COVID levels. The group’s gauge of prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 48, the lowest since June 2020. The measure of present sales also declined to a two-year low, and sales expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest since May 2020.That is the sixth straight month of declines and the headline is now at the lowest in two years.“The housing market faces both demand-side and supply-side challenges,” Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, said in a statement. “Residential construction material costs are up 19% year-over-year with cost increases for a variety of building inputs.”“On the demand-side of the market, the increase for mortgage rates for the first half of 2022 has priced out a significant number of prospective home buyers,” he said.By region, builder sentiment declined in three of four regions. Sentiment improved in the Midwest.Homebuilder sentiment has a long way to go to catch down to homebuyer sentiment...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019 From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Revenue Per Available Room Sets New Weekly Record - U.S. hotel performance jumped from the previous week, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) reached an all-time weekly high on a nominal basis, according to STR‘s latest data through June 11.
June 5-11, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 70.6% (-4.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $155.37 (+15.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $109.76 (+10.7%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase over the summer.

 US Retail Sales Unexpectedly Tumble In May -Amid record low consumer sentiment, crashing asset markets, and tumbling savings rates, it is no surprise that May retail sales were a disappointment but the 0.3% plunge was remarkable relative to a 0.1% expected rise and downwardly revised 0.7% MoM rise in April. That is the first negative print since Dec 2021. Auto sales dropped 3.5% in May, reinforcing data from Ward’s Automotive Group that showed sales dropped the most since August in the month. Meantime, spending at gas stations rose 4%, likely reflecting higher fuel pricesin the month. Excluding those categories, retail sales rose 0.1%, the smallest gain in five months. Remember, retail sales data is nominal - and so an inflationary impulse is actually 'helping' put some lipstick on this headline pig. Whiule adjusting retail sales by CPI directly is somewhat oranges to apples (due to different weightings tec), it gives some general sense of the state of 'real' retail sales. May was the third straight month of declines for real retail sales... The Control Group - used in the GDP calculation - printed a blank (0.0% MoM). Additionally the Control Group retail sales data from April was revised dramatically lower from +1.0% MoM to +0.5% MoM suggesting Q2 GDP could be heading into contraction and the dreaded 'technical' recession looms. Finally, as a reminder, the myth of the 'strong consumer' is dead as Americans are surviving by eating into their savings and piling up credit card debt as inflation sends the cost of living to the moon...

Retail Sales Report, May: In Foulest Mood Ever, Consumers Still Spent Hugely at Retailers, Fighting Inflation where they Can - Retail sales in May, not seasonally adjusted, jumped to $698 billion, the second highest ever, behind only December’s shopping-season splurge, and up 8.2% from the stimulus-miracle bonanza a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales in May dipped by 0.3% from April, after having jumped in the prior four months by 07%, 1.2%, 1.7%, and 2.7% respectively, and were up 8.1% year-over-year, the Commerce Department reported today. The chart shows retail sales seasonally adjusted (red) and not seasonally adjusted (purple): These retail sales cover only sales of goods, not services. For months, consumers have been shifting their spending from goods back to services, particularly discretionary services, such as travels and elective medical treatments, where spending had collapsed during the pandemic. Spending on services is now surging. Services make up about 61% of total consumer spending. Despite the shift back to services, consumers still spent a huge amount on goods, with year-over-year sales up 8.2% from the already sky-high levels last year. Price increases are inflating all sales numbers, but to varying degrees. Inflation in goods has been particularly bad, with prices having jumped by the double digits in many categories of goods. Each retailer struggles with their own cost increases, and they’re struggling to pass on those cost increases, as Walmart, Target, and other retailers have disclosed. The price increases in goods vary to a large degree. The overall headline CPI inflation number of 8.6% simply does not apply. Here are the annual CPI inflation spikes for the biggest categories of goods, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• Gasoline: +48.7%
• Food at home: +11.9%
• Food away from home: +7.4%
• New vehicles: 12.6%
• Used vehicles: 16.1%
• Auto parts & equipment: +15.3%
• Appliances: +6.4%
• Apparel: +5.0%
• Tools, hardware, outdoor equipment: +11.0%
• Furniture and bedding: +12.7%
• Housekeeping supplies: +9.2%

But CPI inflation declined for consumer electronics, which is an issue for Best Buy, other retailers that sell them, and ecommerce retailers:

• Consumer electronics and software: -7.1%
• Video and audio products, including TVs: -5.2%

While still spending hand-over-fist, consumers are hating the rampant price increases and are in the foulest mood ever, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (data via St. Louis Fed and University of Michigan Survey of Consumers):

Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year - Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was revised down by -0.2% to +0.7%. This reduces April’s number, after inflation to +0.4%, followed by a “real” decline in May of -1.2% after rounding. YoY real retail sales were up 8.1%, but because inflation in the past 12 months has been 8.5%, real retail sales YoY is down -0.4%. Here is a graph of the absolute value of real retail sales: In the past 75 years, a decline in real retail sales YoY has frequently - but not always - indicated a recession. Here’s what the past 30 years look like: Needless to say, not good news. Next let’s turn to employment, because real retail sales are also a good short leading indicator for jobs. As I have written many times over the past 10+ years, real retail sales YoY/2 has a good record of leading jobs YoY with a lead time of about 3 to 6 months. That’s because demand for goods and services leads for the need to hire employees to fill that demand. The exceptions have been right after the 2001 and 2008 recessions, when it took jobs longer to catch up, as shown in the graph below, averaged quarterly through the First Quarter: Now here is the monthly YoY comparison for the last year through May: II have been writing for months that I have expected the blowout job numbers of about 500,000 per month to slow down to a range of about 100,000-300,000 per month by early autumn. The last 3 months have averaged 400,000, which has probably been the beginning of that slowdown.Finally, real retail sales per capita is one of my long leading indicators. Here’s what it looks like for the past 25 years: And here is the last year:Last month’s good report temporarily switched the long leading signal from negative to neutral, but this month it goes back to negative - along with most of the rest of the long leading indicators, which have been increasingly foreboding about the economy next year.

DHL Freight Chief Warns Global Supply Chains Won't Recover To Pre-COVID Levels In 2023 - The key question remains when global supply chain congestion will ease worldwide. That's a difficult question to answer, though the head of DHL's freight-forwarding unit sheds color on when he believes bottlenecks will abate. "It's going to ease in 2023, but it's not going to go back to 2019," DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Chief Executive Officer Tim Scharwath told Bloomberg. "I don't think we're going to go back to this overcapacity situation where rates were very low. Infrastructure, especially in the US, isn't going to get better overnight, because infrastructure developments take a long time," Scharwath said. Supply chains between China and US West and East Coast have been easing since China's ZERO Covid policy locked down Shanghai earlier this year. But the recent reopening of Shanghai could result, as explained by Goldman Sachs analyst Jordan Alliger, in a backlog of goods flooding shipping lanes between China to Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex by July-August. DHL's Scharwath expanded on the Shanghai situation and how the manufacturing hub is "smart to open up slowly to make sure that this clog goes out piece by piece and bit by bit to get the flow running."Besides Goldman, California port leaders and the National Retail Federation are anticipating a surge in imports in the coming months. To Scharwath's point: supply chains will remain congested in the second half of 2022. DHL's freight chief also said global supply chains have become more fragile:"Any stress you put on top of it, doesn't matter where in the world, will have influence in other parts of the supply chain," he said. "Five years ago, the Korea situation wouldn't have had an impact. Now it has.".. and how to unclog global supply chains? One way is for the Federal Reserve to aggressively tighten interest rates and throw the largest economy in the world into a recession next year.

LA Port Traffic: Steady in May --Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was declines 0.4% in May compared to the rolling 12 months ending in April. Outbound traffic was down 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were down 4% YoY in May, and exports were down 1% YoY. Note that May 2021 saw the most import traffic ever.There is no impact - yet - on inbound traffic due to the shutdown in China.

Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Levels Off --This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -1.2 was an increase of 10.4 from the previous month's -11.6. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 3.0.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.After declining last month, manufacturing activity held steady in New York State, according to the June survey. The general business conditions index climbed ten points to -1.2. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and twenty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened. After plunging below zero last month, the new orders and shipments indexes climbed into positive territory, pointing to a small increase in both areas. The unfilled orders index fell to -4.3, its first negative reading in over a year, indicating that unfilled orders shrank. The delivery times index fell six points to 14.5, suggesting that delivery times lengthened, though at the slowest pace in over a year. T he inventories index rose nine points to 17.1, indicating that inventories expanded. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:

Philly Fed Mfg Index: Activity Weakens in June - The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -3.3, down 5.9 from last month's 2.6. The 3-month moving average came in at 5.6, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at -6.8, down from the previous month's 2.5.The -3.3 headline number came in below the 5.5 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing activity in the region weakened, according to the firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for current activity and new orders turned negative, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. However, the firms reported continued increases in employment. Both price indexes declined but remained elevated. Expectations for growth over the next six months deteriorated, as the future general activity, new orders, and shipment indexes fell sharply. (Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.

Industrial Production Increased 0.2 Percent in May - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization -- Total industrial production moved up 0.2 percent in May. Output has increased in every month of the year so far, with an average monthly gain of nearly 0.8 percent. In May, manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent after three months when growth averaged nearly 1 percent; the indexes for utilities and mining rose 1.0 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, in May. At 105.7 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in May was 5.8 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged up to 79.0 percent, 0.5 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 79.0% is 0.5% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was below consensus expectations.Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in May to 105.7. This is above the pre-pandemic level.The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.

 BLS: PPI increased 0.8% in May; Core PPI increased 0.5% -- From the BLS: The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 10.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May....Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in May after increasing 0.4 percent in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.8 percent.The consensus was for 0.8% increase in PPI, and a 0.6% increase in core PPI. PPI was at expectations, and core PPI was slightly below expectations.

US producer prices soar 10.8% in May as energy costs spike - (AP) — U.S. producer prices surged 10.8% in May from a year earlier, underscoring the ongoing threat to the economy from inflation that shows no sign of slowing. Tuesday’s report from the Labor Department showed that the producer price index — which measures inflation before it reaches consumers — rose at slightly slower pace last month than in April, when it jumped 10.9% from a year earlier, and is down from an 11.5% yearly gain in March. On a monthly basis, producer prices climbed 0.8% in May from April, above the previous month, when they increased 0.4%. Energy prices, led by gas, rose 5% just in May from April. Another big driver of the price gains last month was a sharp 2.9% increase in the cost of truck freight hauling, a sign that supply chain problems still aren’t fully resolved. Food costs were unchanged. The figures indicate that rising prices will continue to erode Americans’ paychecks and wreak havoc on household budgets in the coming months. Inflation has created major political headaches for President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats and has forced the Federal Reserve into a series of rapid interest rate hikes intended to slow the economy and cool price increases. ADVERTISING On Friday, the government reported that inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — jumped to a new 40-year high of 8.6% in May, a surprise gain that disappointed expectations that price increases might be slowing. Gas and food costs rose sharply, pushed higher by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the costs for rent, new and used cars, medical care, and clothing also rose, evidence that inflation is spreading more broadly through the economy. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike its short-term interest rate by three-quarters of a point on Wednesday, the largest increase since 1994, as it ramps up its efforts to rein in higher prices. The producer price data captures inflation at an earlier stage of production and can sometimes signal where consumer prices are headed. It also feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Strong consumer spending has pushed up demand for a range of goods and services, which has in turn overwhelmed supply chains, creating shortages in some cases and pushing up prices. Greater demand for travel this spring and summer has also sent hotel and airfare prices soaring.

High U.S. Fuel Exports Are Contributing to $5-a-Gallon Gas – WSJ -A rapid rise in American fuel exports this year has helped push gasoline prices to a record $5 a gallon and is pressuring U.S. prices of natural gas, which hit the highest levels in over a decade earlier this month. In recent months, companies and commodities traders have shipped more U.S. gasoline and diesel to Latin America and other foreign markets, reaping higher prices than the fuel could fetch domestically. They have also sent more liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine . The jumps in fuel shipments abroad are further draining U.S. inventories that were already languishing at low levels after output cuts during the worst of the pandemic . Now, American oil-and-gas producers and refiners are struggling to keep up with resurgent demand. Created with Highcharts 9.0.1U.S. seaborne shipments of […

.Delta pilots say they’ve been flying ‘record amount of overtime’ amid flight cancellations Pilots for Delta Air Lines wrote an open letter to customers, published on Thursday, saying the large number of recent flight delays, cancellations and cuts were “unacceptable” and they were “flying a record amount of overtime to help you get to your destination.”“At the current rate, by this fall, our pilots will have flown more overtime in 2022 than in the entirety of 2018 and 2019 combined, our busiest years to date,” the pilots wrote in the letter. “We empathize and share in your frustration over the delays, cancellations, and disrupted travel plans you’ve experienced. We agree; it is unacceptable.”In a May 26 release, Delta announced it would reduce its services by about 100 daily flights from July 1 to Aug. 7.The airline company updated the release on Thursday, saying its weekend cancellations were down 35 percent from May while it was hiring more pilots and staff and starting the boarding process earlier.Delta also said it would continue to adjust flights as part of a plan of “strategically decreasing our flight schedule this summer” in order to “build additional resilience in our system and improve operational reliability.”Delta joins other airlines in a wave of mass flight cancellations this summer, which the companies say is a result of staffing shortages caused by the pandemic.Other major airline companies slashing flights include Southwest Airlines, which cut 20,000 of them for this summer, The Dallas Morning News reported.The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), the world’s largest pilot union, disagreed that there was a staffing shortage, arguing in a June 7 release that the companies were making a “fictitious claim that there is a lack of available pilots” in an effort to weaken safety regulations for profits.“The United States is producing a record number of pilots, yet some are still trying to claim we need to weaken aviation safety rules to fix a problem that doesn’t exist,” said ALPA president Capt. Joe DePete in a statement.ALPA said data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) showed 8,000 new pilots were certified in the past 12 months.In a statement on Thursday, Delta Chief of Operations John Laughter said recovering from the pandemic has been challenging and in particular, “this phase of our recovery has been the most difficult.”

Pilot Murder-Suicides Account For Growing Share Of Airline Crashes -As if there weren't enough to worry about these days, a new report from Bloomberg spotlights a persistently-lurking risk to air travelers: suicidal airline pilots. That peril was underscored by the March crash of a China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735 that killed 132 people. The jet's bizarre trajectory immediately prompted suspicions of murder-suicide: From cruising altitude, the Boeing 737-800 lurched into a near-vertical dive, plunging more than 25,000 feet in two terrifying minutes, and information from the flight data recorder shows the dive was initiated with the cockpit controls.Video taken from the ground captured the jet hurtling nose-first to the earth like a dropped dart: According to Bloomberg's calculations, pilot murder-suicides represent the second-largest cause of civilian aviation deaths over the last decade—however, "if the China Eastern crash is confirmed as the latest such suicide, it will mean that deaths due to intentional acts have exceeded all other causes since the start of 2021."Of course, the smaller the time sample, the more likely one is to observe extraordinary results. Regardless, though, it's clear that—with aircraft malfunctions and pilot errors happily causing far fewer deaths than just two decades ago—pilot murder-suicides account for an increasingly large proportion of fatalities. Surveys of airline pilots show their rate of suicide contemplation mirrors the rate for the general public, with 4 to 8% having thought about it. Detection of such tendencies is exceedingly difficult, and past perpetrators of suicide flights generally gave no clue of what they were contemplating. Notable confirmed or suspected pilot murder-suicide flights include:

Walmart pulls MyPillow products from stores Walmart said it pulled MyPillow products from its stores as the pillow company’s founder and CEO Mike Lindell continues to falsely claim the 2020 presidential election was rigged against former President Trump. A Walmart spokesperson confirmed the products’ removal after Lindell posted a series of live videos on his Facebook page in which he talked about the decision in interviews with conservative podcasters. “While we are no longer carrying them in stores, MyPillow products continue to be available on Walmart.com,” a Walmart spokesperson told The Hill. In a livestream Lindell posted on Thursday of him speaking with Steve Bannon for an episode of “Bannon’s War Room,” the MyPillow CEO said the removal would be a “$10 million hit” to his company. He also told Bannon the company was spending $500,000 a week on television advertising, adding that he offered to lower the price of MyPillow products for Walmart.

Tampon manufacturers are trying to ramp up production as US Senator labels shortages 'very troubling' - Tampon manufacturers say they are trying to combat shortages, as retailers and consumers report difficulties accessing the hygiene products.Multiple outlets, including the BBC and Bloomberg, reported the news.Procter & Gamble told Bloomberg that the company was "working hard to ramp up production to meet the increased demand for our products." The company owns a number of the biggest sanitary product brands in the US, including Tampax and Always.Edgewell Personal Care, which manufactures brands like O.B. and Playtex, told the BBC that manufacturers were working "around the clock" to restock shelves.The US is witnessing a squeeze on tampon supplies as a result of ongoing supply chain problems, pushing up the cost of the necessities. The war in Ukraine has also affected supplies of plastics and absorbency materials used to manufacture products, and fertilizer needed to grow cotton. Procter & Gamble admitted on a recent earnings call that sourcing raw materials was a sticking point. Edgewell Personal Care cited staff shortages caused by COVID infection surges in 2021 and 2022 as a reason for a fall in stocks, per the BBC. The supply chain and logistics problems have meant retailers have struggled to keep shelves fully restocked and people have moved online to find their preferred brands. Walgreens previously confirmed experiencing "brand specific shortages" in some areas, while CVS admitted that some suppliers had "not been able to fulfill the full quantities of orders placed,"Insider's Gabrielle Bienasz previously reported.

 Hochul's still trying to milk COVID two years later. When will this lunacy end? - NY Post Editorial Board -Democrats hate “wasting” a good crisis, but Gov. Kathy Hochul is taking it to new extremes by milking the 2020 pandemic: On Tuesday, she extended the state’s “disaster emergency” yet again, citing COVID. When will this insanity end? The nation is into its third year since the outbreak, and it’s been 18 months since vaccines became available (Two weeks to flatten the curve? Ha!). Hochul clearly seeks to cling to her added “temporary” powers by dragging out the “emergency” for as long as she can. The extension lets her continue to bypass the Legislature and modify or suspend certain laws — and pander to hysterics among the Democrats’ base. Yet she offers no sound justification for the move, since every sane New Yorker realizes the “emergency” is long over. She notes “over 100” new COVID-19 hospital admissions a day, but New York has well over 100 hospitals — so that averages to less than one admission per hospital. How’s that an “emergency”? Yes, the bug continues to spread, but new daily cases plummet further with every passing day. Besides, people who test positive usually suffer only mild symptoms at most. Daily statewide deaths with COVID (not necessarily from it) have dropped to the single digits. Again, where’s the “emergency”?

One-third in new poll say most people around them have moved past pandemic, but they haven’t -More than a third of Americans say in a poll released Tuesday that they have not moved past the pandemic but believe others around them have, indicating a possible rift in how people are viewing COVID-19.The new Axios-Ipsos poll found that 35 percent of respondents said they believe people around them have moved past COVID-19 while they themselves have not. While 42 percent say they have returned to what their lives were like before the pandemic, 33 percent say returning to their normal pre–COVID-19 lives will never happen or will take over a year.Thirty-one percent of respondents said that they believe the pandemic has ended, which the poll notes includes 10 percent of Democrats, 27 percent of independents and 59 percent of Republicans. The survey also found that respondents who are vaccinated are less likely to believe the pandemic has ended (22 percent), compared to those who have not received their shots (55 percent). The findings come as the country reports higher numbers of COVID-19 cases than seen earlier this spring, but with a modest increase in hospitalizations and deaths related to the virus largely flat. Many businesses have largely returned to pre-COVID-19 protocols, with fewer requirements for masks inside or showing proof of vaccination.

31 fascists arrested at Idaho Pride parade on conspiracy to riot --Idaho police in the town of Coeur d'Alene arrested 31 people Saturday linked to the white nationalist group Patriot Front. The arrested men were spotted gathering where the North Idaho Pride Alliance was holding its annual Pride in the Park event to celebrate gay and lesbian people. A bystander reportedly saw the men entering a U-Haul truck and called the police, saying that “it looked like a little army was loading up into the vehicle.” According to the local police officials, officers intercepted the truck and arrested the men inside. They have been charged with conspiracy to riot, a misdemeanor charge. The men arrested were wearing white balaclava masks and apparel identifying themselves as Patriot Front members, including matching insignia and an informal uniform of khaki pants, navy blue shirts, and beige hats. They were also found with shin guards, shields, riot gear and at least one smoke grenade. Local police issued a statement declaring the evidence was clear that the men were present with the intention to riot throughout the town and disrupt the pride parade. According to Coeur d'Alene Police Chief Lee White, “It is clear to us based on the gear that the individuals had with them, the stuff they had in their possession, the U-Haul with them along with paperwork that was seized from them, that they came to riot downtown.” The paperwork mentioned was a seven-page detailed operational plan describing the Patriot Front members’ plan of attack. A brief excerpt provided by White described “a column forming on the outside of the park, proceeding inward, until barriers to approach are met” and “once an appropriate amount of confrontational dynamic has been established the column will disengage and head to Sherman [Avenue].” White continued that the plans were “similar to an operations plan that a police or military group would put together for an event” and that they entailed rioting at several places around downtown, not just in the park where the pride parade was located.

Dr. Oz says he'll fight to end illegal immigration. A business owned by his family, in which he is a shareholder, faced the largest fine in ICE history for hiring unauthorized workers. -In a Sunday tweet, Mehmet Oz vowed to "fight to end illegal immigration" should he be elected to the Senate, a promise that helped resurface the fact that his family's business faced a record-breaking fine for hiring unauthorized workers."As your United States Senator, I will fight to end illegal immigration and soft-on-crime policies that release dangerous, undocumented criminals into sanctuary cities," Oz tweeted.The heart surgeon turned TV personality turned Donald Trump-endorsed politician — better known as Dr. Oz — quickly facedbacklash from social-media users who called him a liar and shared stories related to a fine levied against a business started by his wife's grandfather.The tree-pruning company Asplundh Tree Experts Co., a business for which Oz is listed as a shareholder on regulatory documents, settled with US Immigrations and Customs Enforcement in 2017 after a six-year investigation and audit revealed a systemic effort to hire unauthorized workers."Asplundh Tree Experts, Co., one of the largest privately-held companies in the United States, headquartered in Willow Grove, Pennsylvania, ('Asplundh'), pleaded guilty today to unlawfully employing aliens," an ICE press release about the settlement said, "in connection with a scheme in which the highest levels of Asplundh management remained willfully blind while lower level managers hired and rehired employees they knew to be ineligible to work in the United States."The company, the former CEO of which has donated $12,000 to Oz's Senate campaign, was sentenced to pay forfeiture in the amount of $80 million and an additional $15 million "to satisfy civil claims arising out of their failure to comply with immigration law," an amount that represented the largest payment ever levied in an immigration case, according to the press release.

Oklahoma seeks execution of 25 prisoners after federal judge denies challenge to state’s lethal injection protocol - Oklahoma state prosecutors are pushing to schedule the execution of 25 death row inmates over approximately two years. The move comes as a federal judge denied a challenge by prisoners to the state’s lethal injection protocol. If granted, the number of death sentences carried out over the next two years in Oklahoma would exceed all US states combined since 2020.On June 6, federal judge Stephen P. Friot of the US District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma ruled that the state’s lethal execution combination of drugs does not violate the Eighth Amendment’s guarantee against cruel and unusual punishment. Attorneys for the plaintiffs in the long-running case are considering an appeal of the judge’s ruling. Attorney Jennifer Moreno told CNN that the state’s execution protocol “creates an unacceptable risk that prisoners will experience severe pain and suffering.”Oklahoma’s lethal injection protocol uses three drugs: the sedative midazolam, the paralytic drug vecuronium bromide and potassium chloride, which stops the prisoner’s heart. Medical experts have argued that midazolam does not have the properties necessary to adequately render prisoners unconscious before the other two drugs are administered, potentially subjecting the condemned individuals to a torturous death.On June 10, Oklahoma Attorney General John O’Connor asked the state’s Court of Criminal Appeals to set the dates for 25 of the 28 prisoners who were parties to the execution-protocol challenge. The Associated Press reports that O’Connor is requesting the first execution be carried out on August 25 and then at four-week intervals after that.Lawyers for the 25 prisoners argue that the volume of executions will make it impossible for the prisoners to adequately present issues in their cases. Close to half of the prisoners the state is seeking to execute over the next two years have claims of innocence, serious mental illnesses and/or brain damage.The first person to be put to death under O’Connor’s proposed execution order would be James Coddington, who experienced poverty, trauma and abuse since birth, according to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC). The DPIC explains that Coddington “has severe mental illness and drug addiction, and immediately expressed profound remorse of killing a friend while in the throes of a crack-cocaine binge.”The second person to be put to death under the order would be Richard Glossip, whose claims of innocence are currently under an investigation commissioned by a bipartisan group of state legislators. Glossip was convicted and sentenced to death for the 1997 murder of Barry Van Treese. The prosecution has acknowledged that Glossip did not actually kill Van Treese but was convicted of allegedly convincing Justin Sneed to kill him in exchange for money and the prospect of managing a motel. Sneed agreed to plead guilty in exchange for testifying against Glossip and received a sentence of life without parole.

Illinois child welfare agency wrongfully imprisoning youth - Last week National Public Radio affiliate WBEZ in Chicago reported on the ongoing detention of youth wards of the state being held in youth prisons for no reason other than that the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) claims it has no place to put them. Cook County Juvenile Detention Facility & Court in 2010 (Photo by Zol87) Andrea Lubelfeld, the new chief of the Cook County Public Defender Juvenile Justice Division spoke to WBEZ on the crisis facing the young people who have served a sentence or are awaiting trial and are free to leave. “The judge has not ordered them held. The judge has ordered them released,” she said. “So every day that they sit in the detention center not being released it’s just not right. These are children. They've been taken away from their families and suffered trauma. They've been placed with a new guardian, the state, and the state is not picking them up from the detention center.” According to Cook County data, 84 people in the care of DCFS were left in the juvenile detention center after a judge had ordered their release, sometimes for months. Workers interviewed by WBEZ noted that the psychological and emotional toll on youth who have come through very difficult circumstances make the agency’s negligence and inaction unspeakably cruel. WBEZ reports that the young people attend weekly hearings with a judge and DCFS and hear the official reasons why no one is coming for them. Charles Golbert, a Cook County legal guardian, said the situation, “sends a really powerful message to these kids, that they’re not valued in society and that they don’t matter … that they’re throw-away children. It’s just horrible.”

Democratic controlled Congress allows funding for school meal programs to expire, threatening 10 million children with hungerFederal support for school lunches is set to expire at the end of the month after the US Congress refused to renew funds for a school meal program implemented in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The program waived food assistance requirements and allowed schools to reimburse costs for providing free lunches to all students. It provided $11 billion a year to schools, enabling them to provide breakfast and lunch to millions of students. However, despite being extended by Congress two times before, the Democrats who control both the House and the Senate have decided it is no longer worth funding. By cutting the program from this year’s $1.5 trillion dollar federal budget, Congress has opened the door for hunger to return to nearly 10 million school age children this summer, a figure that is only likely to worsen as the school year returns in the fall. Jillian Meier, director of the advocacy group No Kid Hungry, told the Guardian, “I think we’re going to see in real time the summer hunger crisis grow, and that’s going to give us a preview of what’s going to happen next school year.” As food prices continue to skyrocket amid decades-high inflation, schools are being placed under an extreme amount of pressure. During the program they could rely on a steady reimbursement of $4.56 per meal for all students. Now they will only receive $3.66 for participating students as qualification restrictions go back into effect. The financial strain on schools will hit quickly. With food prices rapidly rising, reports have emerged of school officials shopping at Costco early in the morning to try and buy cheap food items in bulk. Some school districts have been forced to cut back on the number of food options and even the quality of the food, which could carry additional financial penalties as schools struggle to meet standards issued by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which oversees federal school meal programs. Before the waivers have even been cut, schools were already struggling to keep meal programs running. According to USDA deputy undersecretary Stacy Dean, speaking to the Washington Post in March, “Ninety percent of schools are using the waivers and only 75 percent of them are breaking even.” And with a decline in school personnel during the pandemic, schools additionally lack the labor to improve services. “We literally believe we’re going to go off a cliff June 30,”

Despite budget surplus and following civil rights probe for its neglect of special needs students, LAUSD to cut at least a dozen special education classes - The Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) will be shuttering at least twelve special needs day classes across the city by August, a report by CBS Channel 2 revealed Thursday. The move comes even as representatives of LAUSD, the United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA), the California Teachers Association (CTA) and other organizations crow daily about how the California schools are flush with cash. This cynical attack on a vulnerable section of the student body also comes shortly on the heels of an agreement that the district had reached with the Office for Civil Rights (OCR), after they had investigated LAUSD for violating the civil rights of students with disabilities and special needs. What prompted the investigation were claims from parents of more than 66,000 LAUSD students with disabilities who complained that their children had been neglected since the beginning of the pandemic, with little or no education or specialized assistance, despite federal law requiring that districts provide free appropriate public education (FAPE). According to the agreement with the OCR, LAUSD agreed to “take steps necessary to ensure that students with disabilities receive educational services, including compensatory services, during and resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.” In response to the OCR investigation, LAUSD offers no explanation for how the elimination of a large percentage of special needs classes across the city is in any way ‘compensatory,’ especially in light of the recent estimate by the Legislative Analyst of a $33 billion budget surplus for California TK-12 public schools and California Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed budget, which includes an increased per-pupil spending of $3,000.

The crocodile tears of Texas politicians for Uvalde's schoolchildren - The massacre of 19 children and 2 teachers in Uvalde, Texas evoked a flood of “prayers and condolences” from Texas politicians. They shed crocodile tears over an event, horrific in the extreme, which was, among other things, a particularly grotesque manifestation of the militarism, deranged gun rights politics, and social viciousness long promoted by all sections of the political establishment. The insincerity of their grief over the crime committed against Uvalde’s schoolkids is exposed by a review of the deplorable state of public education in Texas.“Texas is one of the most uneducated states in U.S.,” observed a January 2020 article by news outlet KXAN. It ranks 43rd in the nation overall in terms of educational attainment and, according to a recent study by Understanding Houston, it is “second to last nationwide in the percentage of residents with at least a high school diploma.”The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the situation. The Texas Education Agency released data last June showing that STAAR (State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness) results have gone down, with “widening academic gaps and disparities among students of color and economically disadvantaged students,” according to a March 29 KXAN report. The state government and its agencies are not forthcoming with COVID-related statistics, but a December 2021 “Mortality Experience from COVID-19” chart from the Teachers Retirement System of Texas shows that deaths, which had been in the 8,000s from 2016 to 2019, went from 8,701 in 2019 to 10,451 and 11,386 in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton are leading promoters of the policy of letting the pandemic run rampant, scuttling all anti-COVID public safety measures and getting children back into the classroom so that their parents can produce profits for their employers. There have been protests—walkouts, petition drives, absences—against the state’s school COVID-19 policies, but districts statewide have dropped online instruction, and pushed for complete reopening while refusing to institute mask mandates or any other mitigation, much less elimination, measures. Undercounting and other official sleight of hand cannot disguise the results, which have clearly been disastrous.By the end of the first month of the spring semester this year, there were already over 192,000 student cases and more than 61,000 staff cases. “That appears to be the highest case level since the pandemic began in 2020, although the data collected by the state is often incomplete,” reported theTexas Tribune. As for cumulative cases of child deaths in Texas, the state has had 147, more than twice the number in California (70), which has a third larger population.Texas’ schools are extremely underfunded. The Education Law Center (ELC) reported last November that Texas is ahead of just 10 other states in the country in terms of its level of funding for K-12 public education. The ELC gave Texas an “F” for its per-student financing of $11,987, over $3,100 below the national average.

Ohio Passes New Law To Expedite Armed Teacher Training To Harden Schools Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a controversial bill into law Monday morning, expediting training for armed teachers and other adults to harden schools. DeWine held a news conference announcing the signing of HB 99. It reduces the number of hours teachers need for firearms training from 700 hours to as little as 24 hours, with the goal of hardening schools quicker in the wake of the shooting in Texas last month that killed 19 elementary school students and two teachers. DeWine said the 700-hour requirement prevented Ohio school districts from allowing employees to carry guns. Local school boards will authorize teachers to carry guns and can also decide to ban guns. He said, "this doesn't require any school to arm teachers or staff -- Every school will make its own decision." DeWine stated that his staff "worked with the General Assembly to remove hundreds of hours of curriculum irrelevant to school safety." He thanked lawmakers for "passing this bill to protect Ohio children and teachers."Training includes how to stop an active shooter, de-escalate a violent situation, and provide first-aid care. At least four hours will be "scenario-based or simulated training exercises" and "tactical live firearms training," according to the law. HB 99 is the second major gun bill that DeWine, a Republican, signed into law this year. The first eliminates the requirement for a license to carry a concealed handgun.

Gov. Greg Abbott Orders Probe Into Allegation Teacher Took Child To Drag Queen Show Attended By Sex Offender Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered an investigation into an allegation by a parent that a teacher took his son to a drag queen show which was attended by a convicted sex offender.The claim was made by during a Houston Independent School District board meeting last week.“He took him to a drag show when he was underage and it was really bad. It was a really bad experience. He also put him next to this sex offender when he was out there with my son,” the parent said at the meeting.I am directing the Texas Education Agency to investigate this matter. https://t.co/ZnRjf2Xfns— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) June 12, 2022 The parent said the teacher, who is also a “writer for an LGBTQ magazine,” “recruited” his 16-year-old son and exposed him to a pedophile who was previously convicted for an assault on an 8-year-old child.The parent said his son took videos and photos at the event and also has proof of his communication with the teacher in the form of text messages.Abbott responded on Twitter by announcing he was “directing the Texas Education Agency to investigate this matter.”

Graduating students at Seattle Pacific University give pride flags to interim president in protest of anti-LGBTQ+ policy -Dozens of graduating seniors at Seattle Pacific University (SPU) handed small rainbow pride flags to Interim President Pete Menjares in protest of the school’s anti-LGBTQ+ employment policy.Several seniors walked across the stage to receive their diplomas, handing pride flags, notes and other pride items in protest of SPU’s “Employee Lifestyle Expectations” policy, which requires full-time staff to “reflect a traditional view on Biblical marriage and sexuality,” including barring them from participating in “same-sex sexual activity.”The move was organized by the Associated Students of Seattle Pacific (ASSP).“So much of our college experience has has been engulfed by this issue,” graduating senior Laur Lugos, former SPU student government president, told The Seattle Times. “It just felt like this was the appropriate way to go out.”Lugos, who helped organize the protest, also reportedly gave Menjares a handwritten note, telling him to resign. She added that she learned at the university to care for the people Christians “lock out.” Video of the graduation, posted by ASSP, went viral on social media, which included a montage of the students handing the flags to Menjares.

New poll finds majority of Americans against trans athletes in female sports – A spate of recent legislation in Republican-controlled states has brought the topic of transgender sports competition to the forefront of the national conversation. Now, a new poll conducted by The Washington Post and University of Maryland found the majority of Americans, 55 percent, are opposed to allowing transgender female athletes to compete with other women and girls in high school sports. A higher proportion, 58 percent, reported the same opinion at the college and professional sports levels. A total of 1,503 adults completed the poll between May 4 and 17, 2022, representing a random sample of U.S. households. The majority of individuals surveyed identified themselves as sports fans and were parents. While 15 percent of respondents had no opinion on the matter, around 30 percent of Americans agree transgender women and girl athletes should be able to compete at any sporting level. When it comes to youth sports, differences in opinion were slightly less pronounced, with 49 percent of those surveyed opposed to transgender athletes’ participation, 33 percent in favor, and 17 percent reporting no opinion. Nearly 70 percent of respondents said they believed transgender girls would have a competitive advantage over other girls, with 30 percent reporting neither group would have an advantage. However, a slim majority of those surveyed did say they were concerned with transgender athletes’ mental health in the event they were not allowed to participate in youth sports.

Why $10,000 of Student Loan Relief will not Help - I have been bugging Alan at Student Loan Justice to talk more about Student Loan interest, etc. accumulating on these loans. As you can see it is not unusual to accumulate more interest or other costs than the original loan amount. It is also not unusual for the servicer to collect interest before paying down the principal. These loans will be with these people forever and to their graves. ( loan (case graphics) I do not know of any consumer loans exploding like student loans do. State and federal laws protect borrowers from this type of abuse.

A Very Early Look at 2023 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base --The BLS reported on Friday: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 9.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 288.022 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 1.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). In 2021, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 268.421. The 2021 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 9.3% year-over-year in May, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my very early guess is COLA will probably be close to 9% this year, the largest increase since 11.2% in 1981. The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2021 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2021. If wages increased 4% in 2021, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $153,000 in 2023, from the current $147,000. Remember - this is a very early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

Race Is Often Used as Medical Shorthand for How Bodies Work. Some Doctors Want to Change That. -- Several months ago, a lab technologist at Barnes-Jewish Hospital mixed the blood components of two people: Alphonso Harried, who needed a kidney, and Pat Holterman-Hommes, who hoped to give him one.The goal was to see whether Harried’s body would instantly see Holterman-Hommes’ organ as a major threat and attack it before surgeons could finish a transplant. To do that, the technologist mixed in fluorescent tags that would glow if Harried’s immune defense forces would latch onto the donor’s cells in preparation for an attack. If, after a few hours, the machine found lots of glowing, it meant the kidney transplant would be doomed. It stayed dark: They were a match.“I was floored,” said Harried.Both recipient and donor were a little surprised. Harried is Black. Holterman-Hommes is white.Could a white person donate a kidney to a Black person? Would race get in the way of their plans? Both families admitted those kinds of questions were flitting around in their heads, even though they know, deep down, that “it’s more about your blood type — and all of our blood is red,” as Holterman-Hommes put it.Scientists widely agree that race is a social construct, yet it is often conflated with biology, leaving the impression that a person’s race governs how the body functions.“It’s not just laypeople — it’s in the medical field as well. People often conflate race with biology,” said Dr. Marva Moxey-Mims, chief of pediatric nephrology at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C.She’s not talking just about kidney medicine. Race has been used as a shorthand for how people’s bodies work for years across many fields — not out of malice but because it was based on what was considered the best science available at the time. The science was not immune to the racialized culture it sprung from, which is now being seen in a new light. For example, U.S. pediatricians recently ditched a calculation that assumed Black children were less likely to get a urinary tract infection after new research found the risk had to do with a child’s history of fevers and past infections — not race. And obstetricians removed race and ethnicity from a calculation meant to gauge a patient’s ability to have a vaginal birth after a previous cesarean section, once they determined it was based on flawed science. Still, researchers say those race-based guidelines are just a slice of those being used to assess patients, and are largely based on the assumption that how a person looks or identifies reflects their genetic makeup.

9 more children die after consuming baby formula produced at contaminated Abbott Labs factory in Michigan - According to newly released documents, nine children have died since 2021 after consuming powdered baby formula produced by Abbott Labs at its pediatric nutritionals factory in Sturgis, Michigan, seven more than had been previously acknowledged by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). 2The document also revealed that consumers submitted to the FDA 25 complaints that were categorized as “life-threatening illness/injury” and 80 instances of “non-life-threatening illness/injury.” The existence of the documents was reported in the Washington Post on Friday. The Post said that the FDA confirmed that it had received seven additional reports of children dying or being made sick after they drank formula made at the Sturgis factory. Previously, the government regulatory agency and Abbott Labs had only revealed that four children became ill and two died from bacterial infections beginning in September 2021, and all of whom had consumed baby formula made at the Sturgis facility. As they have done throughout the catastrophic baby formula shortage and shutdown of the unsanitary Sturgis factory, both the FDA and Abbott Labs are claiming after the fact that the source of the infections that sickened and killed nine infants is unknown and could not be determined. As the Post article states, “In all nine fatalities, the agency was unable to identify the source of the infection.” The Post then repeats without comment the justifications given for the joint cover-up by the largest baby food manufacturer in the US and the FDA by saying, “there was not enough leftover formula to test” and that, of the babies who died from Cronobacter infections, “genomic sequencing turned up different strains than what was discovered at the Sturgis plant during an inspection this spring.” The latest devastating disclosures were initially published by e Food Alert and food safety expert Phyllis Entis on Wednesday. The details of the additional instances of children dying after consuming Abbott Labs products were obtained by Entis through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.

 Long COVID Could Be a ‘Mass Deterioration Event’ - A tidal wave of chronic illness could leave millions of people incrementally worse off. In late summer 2021, during the Delta wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation issued a disturbing wake-up call: According to its calculations, more than 11 million Americans were already experiencing long COVID. The academy’s dashboard has been updated daily ever since, and now pegs that number at 25 million. Even this may be a major undercount. The dashboard calculation assumes that 30 percent of COVID patients will develop lasting symptoms, then applies that rate to the 85 million confirmed cases on the books. Many infections are not reported, though, and blood antibody tests suggest that 187 million Americans had gotten the virus by February 2022. (Many more have been infected since.) If the same proportion of chronic illness holds, the country should now have at least 56 million long-COVID patients. That’s one for every six Americans. So much about long COVID remains mysterious: The condition is hard to study, difficult to predict, and variously defined to include a disorienting range and severity of symptoms. But the numbers above imply ubiquity—a new plait in the fabric of society. As many as 50 million Americans are lactose intolerant. A similar number have acne, allergies, hearing loss, or chronic pain. Think of all the people you know personally who experience one of these conditions. Now consider what it would mean for a similar number to have long COVID: Instead of having blemishes, a runny nose, or soy milk in the fridge, they might have difficulty breathing, overwhelming fatigue, or deadly blood clots. Even if that 30 percent estimate is too high—even if the true rate at which people develop post-acute symptoms were more like 10 or 5 or even 2 percent, as other research suggests—the total number of patients would still be staggering, many millions nationwide. As experts and advocates have observed, the emergence of long COVID would best be understood as a “mass disabling event” of historic proportions, with the health-care system struggling to absorb an influx of infirmity, and economic growth blunted for years to come. Indeed, if—as these numbers suggest—one in six Americans already has long COVID, then a tidal wave of suffering should be crashing down at this very moment, all around us. Yet while we know a lot about COVID’s lasting toll on individuals, through clearly documented accounts of its life-altering effects, the aggregate damage from this wave of chronic illness across the population remains largely unseen. Why is that?

Severe covid-19 symptoms linked to more than 1300 genetic variants - Hundreds of genetic variants may influence your risk of becoming severely ill with covid-19, a discovery that could lead to more targeted treatments or even tests that assess a person's likelihood of complications More than 1000 genes may contribute to a person’s risk of developing severe covid-19, on top of life circumstances such as their age, ethnicity and any health conditions. Most of the genes, discovered in a study of more than 1 million people, affect the functioning of two kinds of immune cell. If the results are confirmed, they could inform a test that assesses a person’s risk of getting badly ill with covid-19, says Johnathan Cooper-Knock at the University of Sheffield, UK. “We know there are young people who are otherwise fit that get severe covid,” he says. “We are trying to get at the genetic determinants that put people at risk irrespective of the more obvious things.”

University of Tel Aviv study points to COVID as cause of recent unexplained acute liver failure among children - On June 7, 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Hepatitis Alliance, at their World Hepatitis Summit 2022, released a joint news statement in which they also briefly addressed the current cases of unexplained acute hepatitis (liver inflammation) among young children. There have been some 700 such cases in the last five months, spanning 34 countries, coinciding with the Omicron phase of the pandemic. The United Kingdom and the United States lead in the number of cases, each with more than 200. The clinical signs of the disease come on suddenly, with a high proportion of children developing liver failure and around six percent needing a liver transplant. Nine have died. The most common symptoms are vomiting and jaundice, the yellowing of the skin and the sclera of the eyes. Many in the scientific community speculated that the disease fell into the spectrum of the multisystem inflammatory syndrome-children (MIS-C) arising from a previous COVID infection, which can afflict a minority of children and adolescents after the acute phase of COVID has passed and their infections have already cleared, meaning that once acute hepatitis manifests, their COVID tests are negative. Many have also not had antibody tests conducted to confirm previous COVID infections. Speaking with New Scientist, Dr. Deepti Gurdasani of Queen Mary University of London said, “I think we have seen hepatitis as part of MIS-C before, but not in the numbers that are being seen now.” She explained that the rise could be because Omicron has infected millions of children in a few short months. Many public health officials, including the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO, have placed undue emphasis on adenovirus infections, which commonly cause colds and flu-like symptoms in the population. However, they almost never cause liver failure among previously healthy children, or even the immuncocompromised, for that matter. Despite experience with adenoviruses and ample expertise on viral infections and liver injury that have been amply documented in the literature, this didn’t stop the CDC from writing on May 6, 2022, “This cluster [in Kentucky], along with recently identified possible cases in Europe, suggest that adenovirus should be considered in the differential diagnosis of acute hepatitis of unknown etiology among children.”

FDA advisory panel moves COVID-19 shots closer for kids under 5 - COVID-19 shots for U.S. infants, toddlers and preschoolers moved a step closer Wednesday. The Food and Drug Administration's vaccine advisers gave a thumbs-up to vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer for the littlest kids. The outside experts voted unanimously that the benefits of the shots outweigh any risks for children under 5 — that's roughly 18 million youngsters. They are the last age group in the U.S. without access to COVID-19 vaccines and many parents have been anxious to protect their youngest children. If all the regulatory steps are cleared, shots should be available next week. "This is a long-awaited vaccine," said one panel member, Dr. Jay Portnoy of Children's Hospital in Kansas City, Missouri. "There are so many parents who are absolutely desperate to get this vaccine and I think we owe it to them to give them a choice to have the vaccine if they want to." Dr. Peter Marks, FDA's vaccine chief, opened the meeting with data showing a "quite troubling surge" in young children's hospitalizations during the omicron wave and noted 442 children under 4 have died during the pandemic. That's far fewer than adult deaths, but should not be dismissed in considering the need for vaccinating the youngest kids, he said. "Each child that's lost essentially fractures a family," Marks said. Vaccine Biden administration lays out its plan for COVID-19 vaccinations for children under 5 FDA reviewers said both brands appear to be safe and effective for children as young as 6 months old in analyses posted ahead of the all-day meeting. Side effects, including fever and fatigue, were generally minor in both and less common than seen in adults. The two vaccines use the same technology but there are differences. In a call with reporters earlier this week, vaccine experts noted that the shots haven't been tested against each other, so there's no way to tell parents if one is superior. "That is a really important point,"' said Dr. Jesse Goodman of Georgetown University, a former FDA vaccine chief. "You can't compare the vaccines directly." If the FDA agrees with its advisers and authorizes the shots, there's one more step. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will decide on a formal recommendation after its own advisers meet Saturday. If the CDC signs off, shots could be available as soon as Monday or Tuesday at doctor's offices, hospitals and pharmacies. Pfizer's vaccine is for children 6 months through 4 years; Moderna's vaccine is for 6 months through 5 years.

Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 vaccines recommended for kids 5 and younger -An advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted unanimously on Wednesday to recommend two COVID-19 vaccines for kids ages 5 and younger. The two vaccines, from Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA), have been long-awaited to help inoculate the youngest — and still unvaccinated — population in the U.S. The 21-0 vote for both companies is the first step in what is expected to be a quick pathway to authorization before the FDA makes a formal decision. Though both options are mRNA vaccines, leaving no alternative for those uncomfortable with or unable to use the platform, public health officials hope for quick uptake. Both companies conducted trials as the Omicron variant of COVID-19 took hold, and the data show just how tough a target the virus and its latest strains are. Similar reduction in protection against infection was seen in the kids group as has been seen in the real world for adults, but both vaccines continued to protect against severe disease, hospitalization and death. The FDA's Dr. Peter Marks noted that though children have not been affected by COVID-19 at the same rate as older adults, the rate of hospitalization is concerning. "That rate of hospitalization is actually quite troubling. If we compare this to what we see in a terrible influenza season, it is worse," he said. In addition, Marks said 442 children younger than 5 years old had died from COVID as of the end of May in the U.S., compared to 78 from flu during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic.

A C.D.C. panel is expected to recommend vaccinations of young children today.- Scientific advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began meeting on Saturday to decide whether the benefits of Covid vaccines outweigh the risks for children under 5, one of the last group of Americans to qualify for the shots.The meeting, which is streaming live here, began at 10 a.m. Eastern time. The advisers are expected to vote yes, despite reservations about the paucity of data, especially regarding the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.Earlier this week, another panel of experts advising the Food and Drug Administration unanimously backed the vaccines. The F.D.A. on Friday authorized the Moderna vaccine for children ages 6 months through 5 years, and the Pfizer vaccine for children ages 6 months through 4 years. (Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine has been available to children ages 5 and older since November.)On Friday, the C.D.C.’s advisers heard evidence supporting the effectiveness of the vaccines in the youngest children. But the committee repeatedly pressed Pfizer on its estimates and noted that three doses of that vaccine would be needed to protect children, compared with two doses of the Moderna vaccine.Both vaccines are safe, and both produced antibody levels similar to those seen in young adults. If the committee’s endorsement on Saturday is swiftly followed by a green light from the agency’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, states are preparing to begin immunizing the children next week.Among the tasks facing the C.D.C. panel on Saturday is the difficulty of recommending two very different vaccines for the same population.“The implementation of these two rollouts is going to be incredibly challenging,” “There’s going to have to be a lot of proactive communication about the difference between the two and the implications of taking one over the other,” she said.In its clinical trials, Moderna found that two shots of its vaccine, each with one-fourth of the adult dose, produced antibody levels that were at least as high as those seen in young adults.The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine also produced a strong immune response, but only after three doses, company officials told the scientific advisers on Friday.Two doses of the vaccine were inadequate, they said — justifying the F.D.A.’s decision in February to delay authorizing the vaccine until regulators had data regarding three doses. Two doses may not have been enough because the company gave the children just one-tenth of the adult dose in each shot, some advisers said.The vaccine has an overall efficacy of 80 percent in children under 5, Pfizer’s scientists claimed on Friday. But that calculation was based on just three children in the vaccine group and seven who received a placebo, making it an unreliable metric, the C.D.C.’s advisers noted.“We should just assume we don’t have efficacy data,”

DeSantis: Florida won’t provide state resources for giving COVID shots to kids under 5 --Florida will not dedicate any state resources to vaccinating young children against COVID-19, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Thursday. Responding to a question following a press conference about an annual python hunt in the Everglades, DeSantis said infants and toddlers “are at practically zero risk of anything with COVID,” so the state will recommend against getting those kids vaccinated. “There is not going to be any state programs that are going to be trying to get COVID jabs to infants and toddlers and newborns,” DeSantis said to applause from the crowd on hand. “That’s not something that we think is appropriate, and so that’s not where we are going to be utilizing our resources.” DeSantis said the trial data on the vaccines is “abysmal” and suggested they have not been through enough testing to ensure they are safe for use in kids. “Our Department of Health has been very clear, the risk outweighs the benefits and we recommend against it. That’s not the same as banning it. People can access it if they want to,” DeSantis said. But DeSantis also said that parents don’t have any reason to worry about their kids getting infected with COVID-19, and blamed “media hysteria” for any alarm. At least 442 children under 5 have died due to COVID-19 through the end of May, exceeding the number or deaths typically seen from flu or other vaccine-preventable illnesses, Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator, said Wednesday. The governor’s comments come a day after the state confirmed it will not be pre-ordering any vaccines to allow providers to start administering shots for the youngest kids once regulators give the green light, which is expected to occur this weekend. The move ratchets up tensions between the Republican governor — who has presidential aspirations — and the White House. DeSantis and the Biden administration have clashed repeatedly about the governor’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. “By being the only state not-pre-ordering, pediatricians for example in Florida will not have immediate-ready access to vaccines,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during Thursday’s daily briefing. “Some pharmacies and community health centers in the state get access through federal distribution channels, but those options are limited for parents.” The White House initially made 10 million vaccines for young children available for states, tribes and other jurisdictions to pre-order in anticipation of authorization. The Florida Department of Health pushed back on that claim, telling The Hill in a statement there will be no delay in providers getting doses should they want any.

A Few Insights Based on CDC Data Regarding COVID and its Vaccines - by Gail Tverberg - My background is as a casualty actuary. I am used to looking at data from standard sources and trying to make some sense of it. I am hesitant to take someone else’s word for what the data show because I know that it is easy for mistakes to creep in. In this post, I will provide observations based on data from the databases of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Johns Hopkins University. Hopefully, some of these observations will prove insightful.

• [1] Recent data show that COVID vaccines don’t really prevent a person from catching and passing along the virus that causes COVID. The CDC has recently changed its guidance to reflect the fact that the vaccines mostly reduce the chance of severe illness. Vaccines are still recommended by the CDC, not because they reduce transmission, but because they may reduce COVID-related healthcare costs.Figure 1. Number of US vaccine doses provided to various age groups, based on data from a CDC database. It is clear from Figure 1 that the big initial push for vaccine delivery peaked around April 2021. The rollout was substantially accomplished by July 2021. Then there was a second, lower peak, related primarily to boosters in the November 2021 to January 2022 period. Figure 2 shows the pattern of newly reported COVID cases, relative to the first round of COVID vaccinations, based on data reported to the Johns Hopkins University database. Clearly, the first round of vaccinations did not put an end to new COVID cases. In fact, the CDC started becoming concerned about transmission among the vaccinated as early as July 2021. At that time, it started recommending that everyone wear a mask in conditions that represented high transmission. It also began using the term breakthrough infection to describe the (hopefully uncommon) condition of coming down with COVID after being vaccinated. In fact, back when the Delta wave hit in the fall of 2021, it was possible to blame at least part of the problem on the lesser-vaccinated Southern part of the US. The well-vaccinated Northeast seemed to fare relatively much better (Figure 3). Figure 3 indicates that a quite different situation occurred when the Omicron variant hit close to the beginning of 2022. The heavily vaccinated Northeast clearly led the way, both in timing and in the number of COVID cases relative to population. The relatively less vaccinated South was much lower, close to the Midwest in its number of cases, relative to population. The idea of requiring everyone to be vaccinated likely originated from the cost-savings and profits that were expected to occur if people could be vaccinated and kept out of hospitals. Employers were very much in favor of such cost-savings because their workers likely would be able to stay on the job more of the time. Insurance companies were in favor of such an approach as well, because it would lower health care claim costs. Hospitals and physicians were in favor of the recommended COVID vaccines because physicians could perform more elective surgery (and thus make more money) if the hospitals were not full of COVID patients. Of course, the drug companies selling vaccines were in favor of selling more vaccines, too.
• [2] COVID vaccines used in the US do not seem to have done much to reduce total COVID deaths. […]
• [3] Data from OurWorldInData.org provides excess mortality indications for five age groupings. This data indicates that Ages 15-64 were particularly hard hit by the last two waves of COVID (Delta and Omicron). Ages 85+ were hit very lightly. The rise in deaths in the Ages 15-64 grouping is particularly striking. This group is known for being more likely to be depressed by the events of the day. The base number of expected deaths is relatively lower than for the older ages. This allows the deaths from newly increased causes to magnify the total death rate of the period by a greater factor. Life insurance companies have been complaining about the high numbers of deaths experienced on their policies, predominantly for this age group. The strikingly low deaths in the Ages 85+ group in 2021 may reflect the working of the vaccine. There might be other causes as well. Some of the weaker members of this group likely died in 2020, leaving fewer to die in 2021. This lower death rate may also reflect the impact of antibodies gained from catching COVID in 2020. People included in Ages 85+, more frequently than younger age groups, lived in care homes of various kinds during 2020. In this setting, they were more exposed to the early rounds of COVID than those living in home settings. Thus, they had more of a chance to develop antibodies from catching the illness.
• [4] If we prepare charts showing provisional mortality data for 2021, together with similar indications for prior years, we can see how US mortality rates have been changing for different age groups. We can also see the relative role of COVID cases in these changes. Figure 6. Death rates for four youngest age groupings, based on CDC Provisional Mortality Data for various years. Looking at Figure 6, COVID has essentially no impact on babies under Age 1. The total number of deaths seemed to drop more than usual in 2020, perhaps partly because mothers were at home more. For Ages 1-4, death rates are up in 2021, but not because of COVID. COVID seems to play practically no role in the mortality of Ages 5-14 and at most a very minor role for Ages 15-24. For the latter group, mortality is significantly up in both 2020 and 2021, perhaps because of more suicides and risky behavior resulting in death (such as car accidents and drug overdoses).We can see similar patterns to what we saw for Ages 15-24 in the chart above, but with progressively more COVID in the mix of causes leading to the uptick in the overall death rates. The share of COVID cases in the mix rises in 2021 relative to 2020 for all of these age groupings, despite the vaccines and prior immunity which should start building up (if immunity is truly “durable,” something that is not always the case). It is only when we get to these oldest ages that death rates stop increasing in 2021. In fact, when the impact of COVID deaths is removed, the death rates seem to be improving. These age groups tended to get the vaccine early. They also lost quite a few sickly members in 2020, when the first round of COVID hit. The remaining group may be in somewhat better health than the original mix. Also, as mentioned in Section [3], they may also have more antibodies from actually catching COVID during 202o, while living in a care home.
• [5] We can perhaps get an inkling of what is going wrong with death rates by comparing deaths by cause for January 2020, January 2021, and January 2022, based on monthly provisional death data. A sample of one month is not very much, but January tends to be bad for mortality because the cold weather encourages dry indoor conditions, especially in the colder parts of the country. People tend to stay inside more because of cold weather. Vitamin D levels tend to be low because of lower sunlight exposure. Communicable disease deaths, including those of COVID, tend to be high at this time of year.
• much more…

COVID denial vs. reality: The growing threat of Omicron subvariants - Contrary to the relentless propaganda from the political establishment and corporate media of nearly every country, the COVID-19 pandemic is not over and will worsen in the coming weeks and months. The highly infectious, vaccine-resistant and pathogenic Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are quickly becoming dominant globally and threaten another surge of infections and deaths from COVID-19. This is taking place under conditions in which almost every world government outside of China has dismantled the infrastructure that had been in place to track and slow the spread of the virus. In a process analogous to the captain of a sinking ship demanding that all life vests be thrown overboard, since the start of this year mask mandates have been lifted, testing drastically curtailed, contact tracing programs scrapped, and guidelines on isolation, quarantine and travel have been tailored to suit the needs of the major corporations. The ruling elite’s motto has become “Hear no COVID, see no COVID, and do nothing.” There is now an incredible chasm between this fictional world of corporate myth-making, where COVID-19 is supposedly gone, and the real world, where millions of people are infected and thousands die globally each week and an untold number become debilitated by Long COVID. This conspiracy of world governments and the media has degenerated into a massive cover-up, involving systematic efforts to manipulate data and stop reporting on COVID-19. Tragically, the propaganda has misled millions of people to now walk around without masks, as if the virus can simply be wished away.

 Michigan reports 15,578 new COVID cases, 137 deaths over past week - Michigan reported 15,578 new cases of COVID-19 and 137 virus-related deaths over the past week, about 2,225 per day on average. Wednesday’s update brings the total number of confirmed COVID cases in Michigan to 2,581,397, including 36,675 deaths. These numbers are up from 2,565,819 cases and 36,538 deaths, as of last Wednesday, including both confirmed and probable cases.Michigan 7-day test positivity rate was up to 11.9% as of June 14, according to MDHHS data.You can find more Michigan COVID data here from MDHHS.Interactive map: COVID spread levels and case rates by Michigan countyThe Michigan Department of Health and Human Services is only providing updated COVID data on Wednesdays. This data now combines confirmed and probable cases and deaths.Before April 2022, confirmed and probable statistics were separated throughout the pandemic. Due to this significant change in the state’s data reporting, our previous COVID charts and graphs will no longer be updated. MDHHS is also no longer reporting of the subset of deaths identified via Vital Records review.

 Biden’s vaccinated and boosted Health Secretary Xavier Becerra gets COVID for the second time in THREE WEEKS and is ‘having mild symptoms’ Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra announced a breakthrough case of covid on Monday, testing positive for the second time in less than a month. Becerra, 64, is vaccinated, boosted and not considered a close contact to PresidentJoe Biden.'This morning in Sacramento, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra tested positive for COVID-19 after taking an antigen test. He is fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms,' the agency said in a statement.'He will continue to perform his duties as HHS seecretary, working in isolation.''Secretary Becerra has not been considered a close contact of President Biden or Vice President Harris, as defined by the CDC. The Secretary remains engaged with the duties of his office from isolation, and is eager to return to in-person meetings, as quickly as possible.'Becerra is not considered a close contact to President BidenBecerra also tested positive for covid on May 18 during a trip to Germany for a G-7 health summit. Biden, 79, is vaccinated and double boosted. But several members of his administration, including Vice President Kamala Harris and half his Cabinet, have had covid.

This Covid wave might be the start of our ‘new normal,’ experts say -Packed indoor events and fully booked flights where masks are few and far between suggest that the pandemic is a distant, unpleasant memory. In reality, Covid-19 cases have steadily increased nationwide since the end of March. Hospitalization and death rates remain low, and will likely stay that way. But beyond that, many experts say they're unable to predict the trajectory of the current wave, including how and when it will end. Given the past two years of pandemic precedent, that's somewhat surprising — and one indicator of many that the ongoing rise in cases is noticeably different than previous Covid surges. Some experts say it might even mark the beginning of the country's "new normal." Previous surges were caused by the emergence of new Covid variants. This wave is powered predominantly by waning immunities, says Dr. David Dowdy, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and a physician with Baltimore Medical Services. The immunity people gained by recovering from the omicron wave in December and January is fading away, allowing omicron and its subvariants "to make [their] rounds again," Dowdy tells CNBC Make It. And many Americans aren't taking particularly strict Covid precautions anymore, assuming that if they get sick, they'll likely recover without ever being hospitalized. Taken together, that helps explain the past couple months of rising cases: The country's seven-day rolling average of new daily cases is up to 109,032 as of Wednesday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That large number is likely a significant undercount, with many people now relying on at-home tests — and not reporting their results — or eschewing Covid tests entirely. "We're seeing this disconnect between the 'official' number of cases, for example, and percent positivity or other indicators like wastewater surveillance," Dowdy says. The winter omicron wave had an incredibly steep peak. By contrast, this one is more driven by "lots of mini waves that come and go," says Dr. Howard P. Forman, director of the health care management program at the Yale School of Public Health. Forman says the virus' geographic circulation is different this time around: When New York is struggling, for example, Florida may be doing just fine, and vice versa. Those regional waves are often driven by different omicron subvariants — sometimes multiple at once — making the virus additionally difficult to tamp down. Forman says this is likely what Covid will look like for the foreseeable future. That doesn't mean reinstating lockdowns or mask mandates. Rather, Forman says, people should be prepared to adjust their behavior and take necessary precautions when there's an outbreak in their area — using metrics like hospitalization rates instead of new daily cases to gauge local severity.

 WTO agrees to lift Covid vaccine patents, but is it 'too late'? -The World Trade Organization agreed Friday to temporarily lift patents on Covid-19 vaccines after two years of bruising negotiations, but experts expressed scepticism that the deal will have a major impact on global vaccination inequality. The unprecedented agreement, sealed by all 164 WTO members after late-night overtime talks, will grant developing countries the right to produce Covid vaccines for five years “without the consent of the right holder”. Since October 2020, South Africa and India have called for intellectual property rights for coronavirus vaccines to be temporarily lifted so they can boost production to address the gaping inequality in access between rich and poor nations. But Friday’s compromise fell short of their earlier requests that the waiver apply to all countries — and also cover Covid tests and treatments. Under the terms of the new deal, WTO members have six months to decide on whether to extend the measures “to cover the production and supply of Covid-19 diagnostics and therapeutics”. “This does not correspond to the initial request,” said Jerome Martin, the co-founder of the Drug Policy Transparency Observatory, pointing to the fact that the deal only includes developing countries. “We have to see what it does in the field, but it is not ambitious at all,” he told AFP. James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International, said it was “a limited and disappointing outcome”. “The fact that the exception is limited to vaccines, has a five-year duration and does not address WTO rules on trade secrets makes it particularly unlikely to provide expanded access to Covid-19 counter-measures,” he said in a statement. “The pressure this week was to reach consensus in order to make multilateralism look like it works, which seems to have been the main justification for producing this decision.” Max Lawson, co-chair of the People’s Vaccine Alliance and Oxfam’s head of inequality, singled out Switzerland, Britain and the European Union for “blocking anything that resembles a meaningful intellectual property waiver”. “The conduct of rich countries at the WTO has been utterly shameful,” he said. The agreement also disappointed the pharmaceutical lobby group IFPMA, which warned that “dismantling” patent protections would strangle innovation. “The single biggest factor affecting vaccine scarcity is not intellectual property, but trade. This has not been fully addressed by the World Trade Organization,” said IFPMA’s director general Thomas Cueni.

As China seeks 'zero COVID,' Shanghai delays reopenings and orders mass testing - ABC News-- Just 10 days after Shanghai lifted its harsh two-month lockdown and less than a week after Beijing declared its outbreak under control, China’s two largest cities found themselves walking back on loosening up restrictions. Beijing delayed reopening schools on Monday as a new outbreak centered around a popular bar district pushed cases to a three-week high and Shanghai, once again, suspended dine-in services at restaurants. Both cities were back to conducting mass testing over the weekend as outbreaks of the Omicron variant stubbornly persist despite the country’s no tolerance zero-COVID measures. Shanghai even briefly placed most of the city back in lockdown Saturday morning to conduct its mass test, which only turned up 66 cases through the weekend. As much of the world has shifted definitively to living with the virus, China, by all measures, is digging in and even expanding their method of mass testing and suppression authorities call “Dynamic Zero-COVID” where all positive cases, no matter how mild, needed to be isolated and quarantined. Before Omicron, China’s zero-COVID measures had allowed Chinese citizens to go about their lives as normal for nearly two years as COVID-19 ravaged the rest of the world. China still has one of the lowest official COVID-19 death rates in the world. The chaotic implementation of the Shanghai lockdown, however, came to show the economic and social toll of the country’s stringent measures with Bloomberg Economics predicting that China’s will grow slower than the U.S. economy for the first time since 1976. Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Global Health Yanzhong Huang believes that, despite this, Chinese authorities are drawing a very different lesson from the omicron outbreak and lockdown in Shanghai than when previous zero-COVID stalwarts like New Zealand opened up after omicron broke down their defenses. “[The Chinese health authorities] believe they didn't respond speedily enough,” Huang told ABC News. “[They believe] if they took action in the very beginning of the outbreak they would have been able to cut the transmission and bring the situation under control right away.” MORE: Patience wears thin for Shanghai residents still in lockdown In other words, it wasn’t the zero-COVID policy that didn’t work, it was poor implementation that landed Shanghai in lockdown. So instead of realizing zero-COVID methods were increasingly ineffective against highly transmissible variants like omicron, Huang says authorities came to opposite conclusion: they needed to double down and that zero-COVID is the only way to go.

China is testing 3.5 million Beijing residents after a 'ferocious' COVID outbreak just days after easing restrictions on nightlife - 3.5 million residents of China's capital Beijing are being tested for COVID-19, after 200 new cases linked to a 24-hour bar and liquor store emerged, according to Reuters. The new COVID-19 cases have been linked to Heaven Supermarket Bar, a popular nightlife venue and liquor supermarket in the central Beijing district of Chaoyang. Residents of Chaoyang now face mandatory testing.As well as millions of tests, Beijing has locked down the homes of around 10,000 close contacts of people who attended the bar in recent days.Several employees have been locked into the venue for at least two days to isolate from others and to undergo testing, Reuters said. Local authorities described the outbreak as "ferocious" and "explosive" and have halted Chaoyang's plans for schools reopening.Last week, Beijing eased its social distancing rules to allow dine-in service at restaurants and bars. The country's persistence with a strategy of 'zero COVID' has resulted in extended, strict lockdowns in megacities such as Shanghai, whose months-long lockdown also eased this month.The extended lockdown sparked protests and slowed down economic activity in one of the world's busiest ports, hitting an already strained global supply chain.Millions of residents of Shanghai, a commercial epicenter of China, were again placed under strict lockdown measures over the weekend, after a cluster was linked to a popular beauty salon,according to a Reuters report. The nation of 1.4 billion people has recorded around 14,000 COVID deaths, per Johns Hopkins University data.

Mexico returns to CDC’s highest-level COVID warning -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has updated its travel warning for Mexico, saying the country now is a Level 3 for a high rate of coronavirus cases.In an update on Monday, the health agency said the level of COVID-19 in Mexico was being upgraded from Level 2 (moderate) to Level 3 (high). People who go to Mexico, it said, should be vaccinated, and those who are not should avoid travel to the country.“If you are not up to date with your COVID-19 vaccines, avoid travel to Mexico,” the health agency said in its advisory. “Even if you are up to date with your COVID-19 vaccines, you may still be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19.” Mexico is one of seven countries within the last week that the CDC has issued new warnings about.New Caledonia, United Arab Emirates, Guyana, Mongolia, Namibia, and Saint Kitts and Nevis have also been placed in a Level 3 advisory, meaning that the virus spread in the country is at a high level. As of June 13, there are 113 countries and islands currently on the health agency’s Level 3 advisory.

Almost 50% of COVID-19 cases in Israel from BA.5 variant - The Jerusalem Post -- Almost 50% of people infected with COVID-19 in Israel have the new BA.5 variant - the variant produces a relatively mild disease among young people, but is showing a rise in hospitalization, according to the head of the COVID-19 committee, Prof. Zarka. "Almost 50% of people infected with COVID-19 have the new BA.5 variant now - the variant produces a relatively mild disease among young people, but we're seeing a rise in hospitalization. The important thing now is to maintain at-risk populations and populations aged 60 and over," Prof. Zarka said. "With the Delta variant, the vaccine worked in 90% of cases and in Omicron 70%, in the new variant the vaccine is already less effective in resisting infection but does protect from severe illness," he explained. Reinstating the obligation to wear masks in enclosed spaces is being considered and a new regulation that will allow a supervised home inspection to be done over the phone, among other regulations, will be brought to the committee's approval. "We encourage the public to wear masks indoors. This is what I personally do and this is what I tell everyone around me, even outside of the hospital. We are considering returning regulations that require wearing masks indoors," Prof. Zarka stated. "We are considering returning regulations that require wearing masks indoors." The Health committee, headed by MK Idit Silman, is holding a discussion on the situation of COVID-19 infections and the treatment of post-COVID on Wednesday. The committee is working to expand testing stations for next week. In addition, a supervised home inspection is being considered. "We have conducted talks with many companies on the subject and we will ask the committee to approve these regulations on Monday," Prof. Zarka added. "These regulations will allow a supervised home inspection that will be done over the phone and so those who do said inspections will be regulated and registered in the Ministry of Health." The BA.5 variant was first detected in South Africa in February of this year, although it is likely it did not actually originate there. Rather, due to Israel performing more genetic sequencing tests on COVID-19 samples than many other countries, this was just the first place that it was detected through genetic sequencing. The BA.5 variant has been classified as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization as well as by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, according to a report from Reuters last Wednesday. A recent report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the BA.5 variant now accounts for 7.6% of all new COVID-19 cases, with similar data coming from elsewhere including Germany, which has reported that an estimated 10% of all new cases are the BA.5 subvariant. Data from some other countries are more concerning, however, with Portugal reporting that the BA.5 variant is responsible for 80% of all cases. Similar to the original Omicron variant, the BA.5 subvariant is once again more transmissible than its predecessors but also causes milder illness than previous variants such as Delta.

 China Converts Beijing's Olympic Villages Into COVID Isolation Camps -China has turned the Olympic villages built to house athletes during the Beijing Winter Games into COVID-19 quarantine camps, theFinancial Times reported.In February about 2,900 foreign athletes were housed in the "closed-looped" compounds that are sealed off from the rest of Beijing.Now, the three Olympic villages, with their "bubble infrastructure," are proving to be ideal locations to isolate those possibly infected with the virus, per the FT.Amid a rise in Omicron cases in March and April, China imposed full or partial lockdowns in dozens of cities, including strict measures in Shanghai that were only eased last month.This week, Beijing has experienced a new outbreak linked to a popular bar, the Financial Times reported, which has led to public venues being closed and the reintroduction of mass testing.At least 200 people have been infected, and more than 6,000 have been forced to quarantine at home, the paper said.

Far from being 'post pandemic,' UK Covid cases are on the rise again - U.K. Covid-19 cases have risen for the first time in two months, according to new data, which warns of a possible further spike ahead. A total of 989,800 people tested positive for the virus in the week from May 27 to June 2 — up from 953,900 a week earlier — estimates from the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. That figure equates to around 1.5% of the population, or one in 65 people. It comes at a time when Health Secretary Sajid Javid has dubbed the country "properly post-pandemic." Javid on Saturday told The Times newspaper that Covid-19 was "no longer a pandemic," describing it as "endemic" like the flu and other viruses. "We should be proud as a country of how we tackled it," he added. The uptick recorded by the ONS was likely driven by the original omicron variant BA.1 and the newer variants BA.4 and BA.5. While all four countries in the U.K. recorded an increase in cases, the ONS said the overall trends in Scotland and Wales were "uncertain." As of June 2, England had 797,500 cases; Northern Ireland had 27,700; Wales had 40,500; and Scotland had 124,100. The data, which are based on confirmed positive Covid-19 test results of those living in private households, give an early projection of the course the virus may take in the coming weeks. It is compiled by testing thousands of people from U.K. households at random, whether or not they have symptoms, and is thought to provide the clearest picture of Covid-19 infections in Britain since free public testing was abandoned in England and Scotland. A new wave ahead? Some health researchers and physicians have warned that the uptick suggests a new wave of infections is coming. "A new wave is now starting," Christina Pagel, director of University College London's Clinical Operational Research Unit and a member of the scientific advisory group Independent Sage, said during a virtual press conference Friday. "Given where we are now, I expect that to go up again next week," she added.

COVID-19: Infections rise by nearly half a million in a week --Last week, an estimated 1,415,600 people had coronavirus in the UK, up 425,800 or 43%. The rise is likely to have been caused by the Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5. COVID-19 cases have surged by nearly half in a week, official figures show. Last week, an estimated 1,415,600 people had coronavirus in the UK, up 425,800 or 43%. This is the highest estimate for infections since the start of May, but is still well below the record high of 4.9 million at the end of March. Cases rose in all four nations of the UK - and increased across all age groups. In England, around one in 50 people had the virus, according to the coronavirus infection survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Infection rates increased in all English regions, except for the North East where the trend was uncertain, the ONS said. In Wales and Northern Ireland, one in 45 were positive, and in Scotland one in 30 had the virus.The rise is likely to have been caused by the Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5. Omicron BA.1 is the original variant of Omicron that saw infections surge across the UK around in December and early January this year. It was followed by a second wave driven by sub-variant BA.2 in around March. While BA.2 still makes up most UK infections, the emergence of BA.4 and BA.5 in May is effectively another wave. Newer variants, BA.4 and BA.5, were recently classified as "variants of concern" by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

COVID numbers are rising in Germany — but who cares? People in Germany are spending their summer with COVID-19 out of mind, if not out of sight. With most restrictions now lifted, they are traveling and filling bars, restaurants, and clubs. Festivals and other events are taking place again, and many are trying to make up for lost time. In fact, confirmed cases and hospitalizations are higher now than at the same time in either of the last two years, but Germany's third pandemic summer feels like the most normal. Like other countries, Germany is seeing an increase in coronavirus cases caused by the BA.5 subvariant, which the World Health Organization (WHO) currently classifies as a "variant of concern." Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has spoken of a "summer wave" of new infections sweeping the country. "This has unfortunately become a fact," he told the Rheinische Post newspaper. On Twitter, he urged vulnerable individuals to get a fourth shot of the vaccine and suggested the wearing of masks in closed spaces. "No one can say right now if omicron will continue to dominate in the fall and winter; whether we'll have a harmless variant or one that causes serious cases," said Klaus Reinhardt, the president of the German Medical Association (BÄK), in a statement last week criticizing state and federal pandemic planning. Specifically, they and others in their field want to focus on keeping schools open, protecting the most vulnerable, boosting immunity, and ensuring normal operations of hospitals and other critical infrastructure. Throughout the pandemic, doctors and researchers have lamented that Germany has been "flying blind." The absence of reliable and consistent data is "not a good basis for rational decisions," the statement said.

WHO: COVID-19 deaths rise, reversing a 5-week decline - -- After five weeks of declining coronavirus deaths, the number of fatalities reported globally increased by 4% last week, according to the World Health Organization. In its weekly assessment of the pandemic issued on Thursday, the U.N. health agency said there were 8,700 COVID-19 deaths last week, with a 21% jump in the Americas and a 17% increase in the Western Pacific. WHO said coronavirus cases continued to fall, with about 3.2 million new cases reported last week, extending a decline in COVID-19 infections since the peak in January. Still, there were significant spikes of infection in some regions, with the Middle East and Southeast Asia reporting increases of 58% and 33% respectively. “Because many countries have reduced surveillance and testing, we know this number is under-reported,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said earlier this week. He said there was “no acceptable level of deaths from COVID-19,” given that the global community now has the vaccines, medicines and diagnostics to stop the virus. While many rich countries in Europe and North America have mostly dropped their virus restrictions, China's extreme COVID-19 policies have meant more mass testing, quarantines and sequestering of anyone who was in contact with a case. China’s capital put school back online this week in one of its major districts amid a new COVID-19 outbreak linked to a nightclub. Residents in Beijing are still undergoing regular testing — mostly every other day — and must wear masks and swipe a mobile phone app to enter public places and facilitate case tracing. China has maintained its “zero-COVID” policy despite considerable economic costs and an assertion from the head of the World Health Organization that the policy isn’t sustainable. This week, U.S. officials moved a step closer to authorizing coronavirus vaccines for the youngest children, after the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisers gave a thumbs-up to vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech for children under 5. The outside experts voted unanimously that the benefits of the shots outweigh any risks for children under 5 — that’s roughly 18 million youngsters. They are the last age group in the U.S. without access to COVID-19 vaccines, and many parents have been anxious to protect their little children. If all the regulatory steps are cleared, shots should be available next week.

WHO to determine if Monkeypox should be declared ‘Emergency of International Concern’; rights expert warns of COVID ‘vaccine apartheid’ | UN News - The experts will meet on June 23 to assess whether the continuing outbreak represents a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the highest level of global alert, which currently applies only to the COVID-19 pandemic and polio.So far this year, more than 1,600 confirmed cases and almost 1,500 suspected cases of Monkeypox have been reported to WHO, across 39 countries – including seven countries where monkeypox has been detected for years, and 32 newly-affected nations.At least 72 deaths have been reported from previously affected countries. No deaths have been registered so far from the newly affected countries, but the agency is seeking to verify news reports of a related death in Brazil."The global outbreak of Monkeypox is clearly unusual and concerning”, said WHO director Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus, calling to step up the response and international coordination.Ibrahima Socé Fall, WHO Deputy Director for Emergency Response, explained that the risk of spread in Europe is considered "high" while in the rest of the world "moderate" and that there are still knowledge gaps regarding how the virus is being transmitted."We don't want to wait until the situation is out of control”, he said.WHO has published recommendations for governments regarding case detection and control.Speaking to journalists in Geneva, WHO Smallpox expert Rosamund Lewis, said it was crucial to raise awareness in the population about the level of risk and explain the recommendations to avoid infecting close contacts and family members.Dr. Lewis explained that, although the disease sometimes only produces mild symptoms, such as skin lesions, it can be contagious for two to four weeks.“We know that it is very difficult for people to isolate themselves for so long, but it is very important to protect others. In most cases, people can self-isolate at home and there is no need to be in the hospital,” she added.Monkeypox is transmitted through close physical contact with someone who has symptoms. The rash, fluids, and scabs are especially infectious. Clothing, bedding, towels, or objects such as eating utensils or dishes that have been contaminated with the virus can also infect others.However, it is not clear whether people who do not have symptoms can spread the disease, the expert reiterated.

WHO convenes experts to decide if monkeypox is an emergency -The World Health Organization will convene an emergency committee of experts to determine if the expanding monkeypox outbreak that has mysteriously spread outside Africa should be considered a global health emergency. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday he decided to convene the emergency committee on June 23 because the virus has shown "unusual" recent behavior by spreading in countries well beyond parts of Africa where it is endemic. "We believe that it needs also some coordinated response because of the geographic spread," he told reporters. Declaring monkeypox to be an international health emergency would give it the same designation as the Covid-19 pandemic and mean that WHO considers the normally rare disease a continuing threat to countries globally. The U.K. said Monday it had 470 cases of monkeypox across the country, with the vast majority in gay or bisexual men. British scientists said last week they could not tell if the spread of the disease in the U.K. had peaked. The meeting of outside experts could also help improve understanding and knowledge about the virus, Tedros said, as WHO released new guidelines about vaccinating against monkeypox. Dr. Ibrahima Soce Fall, WHO's emergencies director for Africa, said case counts were growing every day and health officials face "many gaps in terms of knowledge of the dynamics of the transmission" — both in Africa and beyond. "With the advice from the emergency committee, we can be in a better position to control the situation. But it doesn't mean that we are going straight to a public health emergency of international concern," he said, referring to WHO's highest level of alert for viral outbreaks. "We don't want to wait until the situation is out of control to start calling the emergency committee." The U.N. health agency does not recommend mass vaccination, but advises the "judicious" use of vaccines. It said controlling the disease relies primarily on measures like surveillance, tracking cases and isolating patients. Last month, a leading adviser to WHO said the outbreak in Europe and beyond was likely spread by sex at two recent rave parties in Spain and Belgium. Scientists warn that anyone, regardless of sexual orientation, is susceptible to catching monkeypox if they are in close, physical contact with an infected person or their clothing or bed sheets. WHO has been working with partner countries to create a mechanism by which some vaccines for smallpox — a related disease — might be made available to countries that are affected, as research continues into their effectiveness against the new outbreak. Tedros said more than 1,600 cases and nearly 1,500 suspected cases have been reported this year in 39 countries, including seven where monkeypox has been reported for years. A total of 72 deaths have been reported but none in the newly affected countries, which include Britain, Canada, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United States. The ongoing outbreak of monkeypox in Europe and elsewhere marks the first time the disease has been known to spread among people who have no travel links to Africa.

Monkeypox Vaccines Are Too Gnarly for the Masses - The Atlantic - In the past three years, the world has weathered two very different global outbreaks, caused by two very different pathogens, under two sets of very different circumstances. Unlike with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, withmonkeypox, we’re entering an epidemic with highly effective vaccines—formulated to guard against smallpox—already in hand. Also unlike with SARS-CoV-2, with monkeypox, the shots stockpiled in U.S. stores are based on some pretty grody tech. Nearly all of the 100 million available smallpox vaccines are ACAM2000, an inoculation that, per FDA documentation, getspunctured “rapidly” into the arm via 15 jabs of a bifurcated, escargot-fork-esque needle, in a fashion “vigorous enough” to draw blood. In the weeks following, a gnarly, pus-laden lump blossoms, then scabs and falls away. “It’s oozy; it’s nasty; it definitely doesn’t feel good,” says Kelsey Cone, a virologist at ARUP Laboratories, in Utah, who received the vaccine about 12 years ago. And unlike with SARS-CoV-2, with monkeypox, most of us won’t have to get those shots—or any smallpox vaccine at all, at least not anytime soon. “Vaccination is not going to be the primary thing that squashes this outbreak,” says Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, a virologist and an infectious-disease physician at Emory University. Monkeypox is an older pathogen than the new coronavirus, with a richer history with humans; it spreads far less efficiently, and can more easily be snuffed out. And it will demand an almost opposite response—one that doesn’t require building widespread population immunity. Monkeypox, after all, is a different sort of emergency, in which the downsides of mass vaccination—for now—outweigh the perks. Our most abundant shot, ACAM2000, contains an active virus, related to smallpox, that can replicate inside human cells; “if you vaccinated a million people, you might result in more disease,” says Mark Slifka, a vaccinologist at Oregon Health & Science University, “than you would get from the monkeypox outbreak itself.” If vaccinating everyone is off the table, that leaves us with blocking the outbreak upstream—with testing, education, and behavioral change, the exact tactics the U.S. has proved itself, time and time again, incapable of sustaining. As the world attempts to juggle two pathogens at once, we may find that monkeypox is, in some ways, an advanced version of a test we’ve taken before, and very recently flunked. All that said, some of us will be nabbing smallpox shots, and sporting the subsequent scabs. Already, several countries in Europe and North America have kick-started what are called ring-vaccination campaigns—offering smallpox shots to close contacts of infected people. When supply is limited, this sort of targeted tactic “gives you the most bang for your buck,” Slifka told me, especially when a pathogen seems to be circulating in rather specific sectors of the population. A disproportionate fraction of the 1,600-plus monkeypox cases identified so far, across 35 countries, have been men who have sex with men, who likely caught the infection through intimate contact; health-care workers on the front lines of the outbreak, too, are being offered shots. Some jurisdictions are casting wider nets. Officials in Montreal, for instance, have started giving vaccines to men who have had at least two male sex partners in the past couple of weeks.

Monkeypox: 2 monkeypox cases confirmed in Houston area, 1 being in Harris County - -- Both the city of Houston and Harris County are confirming their first cases of monkeypox.The Houston Health Department announced on Saturday a confirmed monkeypox infection in a Houston resident with recent international travel.The resident developed symptoms after returning from travel and is experiencing a mild illness. The resident didn't require hospitalization and is isolating at home.Harris County Public Health (HCPH) also confirmed its first case of monkeypox in the County on Saturday from an out-of-state resident.This person has since left Harris County and returned to their state of residence, according to HCPH.The news came shortly after the Houston Health Department confirmed its first case.The department and HCPH says epidemiologists will reach out to people who had direct close contact with the resident while infectious.Monkeypox typically begins as a flu-like illness such as fever, headache, muscle aches, backache, chills and exhaustion, and swollen lymph nodes. One to three days after the appearance of fever, a rash develops -- often beginning on the face then spreading to other parts of the body.The threat of monkeypox to Houston remains low. Monkeypox is rare and doesn't spread easily between people without close, personal, skin-to-skin contact.It also can spread from person to person through prolonged face-to-face contact or close contact with the infectious rash, scabs or body fluids. Contact with items such as clothing or linens that previously touched the rash or body fluids is another way monkeypox spreads.The illness lasts two to four weeks. It can spread from the time symptoms start until the rash fully heals and a fresh layer of skin has formed.

Health officials confirm probable case of monkeypox virus in MO— The Kansas City Health Department and Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services announced the state's first probable monkeypox case in a Kansas City, Missouri, resident who recently traveled out of state.“This week, one of our excellent nurses suspected one of our patients may have monkeypox virus,” Dr. Marvia Jones, director of the Kansas City Health Department, said in a release.She added, “We are considering this a probable case of monkeypox virus until we receive final confirmation from the CDC labs. We appreciate the work our disease investigation and nursing staff have done to educate themselves on this rare virus and be on alert for it.”The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will test to confirm the case. The Health Department is determining whether the patient had contact with others while infected. Officials will notify anyone deemed at risk for exposure.The patient did not need to be hospitalized.Health officials say monkeypox starts with flu-like symptoms and swollen lymph nodes, and progresses to a rash on the face and body. Most infections last two to four weeks. The CDC says there are currently 113 confirmed cases in the U.S. and that the risk to the general population remains low. It is spread through close physical contact.

IDOH: State's 1st 'probable' case of monkeypox identified — The first probable case of monkeypox in Indiana this year has been identified, state health officials announced Saturday. The Indiana Department of Health completed initial testing of the case on Saturday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will do further testing to confirm. IDOH explained that based on the initial positive test and preliminary case investigation, state health officials consider this a probable monkeypox infection. The patient remains isolated, and health officials said they are working to identify anyone the patient may have had close contact with while infectious.Monkeypox is a viral disease similar to smallpox but clinically less severe. Symptoms include the common fever, headache and sore throat. However, a rash that looks like water blisters will also start to develop on the body.Person-to-person transmission is possible either through skin-to-skin contact with body fluids, monkeypox sores or contaminated items, such as bedding or clothing, or through exposure to respiratory droplets during prolonged face-to-face contact, according to IDOH.“The risk of monkeypox among the general public continues to be extremely low,” said State Health Commissioner Kris Box. “Monkeypox is rare and does not easily spread through brief casual contact. Please continue to take the same steps you do to protect against any infection, including washing your hands frequently and thoroughly, and check with a healthcare provider if you have any new signs or symptoms.” To date, the CDC has confirmed 113 monkeypox cases in 21 states and territories this year.

Canada confirms 168 cases of monkeypox -Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam confirmed a total of 168 cases of monkeypox in the country as of Friday. Speaking at a health briefing, the top doctor said that these confirmed cases had been reported nationally, including two cases from British Columbia, four from Alberta, 21 from Ontario and 141 from Quebec. “We continue to monitor and respond to the evolving monkeypox situation, including supporting provinces and territories in their efforts to roll out targeted vaccination campaigns,” Tam said, adding that they are working to raise awareness of how the virus is transmitted. According to her, among the cases for whom information is available and has been reported to the Public Health Agency of Canada, all cases are male and ages range from 20 to 69 years. However, the risk of exposure to monkeypox virus is not exclusive to any group or setting. Anyone, no matter their gender or sexual orientation, could get infected and spread the virus if they come into close contact with someone who has monkeypox or objects they have used, like personal objects, towels or bed linens, she said. Monkeypox is a sylvatic zoonosis that may cause infections in humans and the disease usually occurs in forested parts of Central and West Africa. It is caused by the monkeypox virus which belongs to the orthopoxvirus family, according to the World Health Organization.

‘Forever chemicals’ linked to high blood pressure in middle-aged women: study - Middle-aged women who have greater blood concentrations of toxic “forever chemicals” may be at greater risk of developing high blood pressure, a new study has found.These women were more likely to become hypertensive than those who had lower levels of the compounds, also called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), according to a study published on Monday in the American Heart Association journal Hypertension.Notorious for their presence in jet-fuel firefighting foam and in industrial discharge, PFAS are a set of synthetic chemicals found in a wealth of household products, including nonstick pans, waterproof apparel and cosmetics.“PFAS are known as ‘forever chemicals’ because they never degrade in the environment and contaminate drinking water, soil, air, food and numerous products we consume or encounter routinely,” lead author Ning Ding, a postdoctoral fellow in the department of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, said in a statement.Thus far, scientists have demonstrated a “probable link” between PFAS and diagnosed high cholesterol, ulcerative colitis, thyroid disease, testicular cancer, kidney cancer and pregnancy-induced hypertension. This latest study extends that last category to another subset of women.“Women seem to be particularly vulnerable when exposed to these chemicals,” Ding said. “Our study is the first to examine the association between ‘forever chemicals’ and hypertension in middle-aged women,” she continued. “Exposure may be an underappreciated risk factor for women’s cardiovascular disease risk.”Ding and her colleagues drew these conclusions by harnessing data from the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation-Multi-Pollutant Study, an initiative launched in 2016 to investigate the impacts of multiple environmental chemical exposures on mid-life women from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds.

EPA sets targets for slashing PFAS in drinking water - EPA today announced new drinking water health advisories for the four most notorious “forever chemicals,” a move meant to curb exposure to the toxic substances that could have broad implications for the military and municipalities. “People on the front-lines of PFAS contamination have suffered for far too long,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. “That’s why EPA is taking aggressive action as part of a whole-of-government approach to prevent these chemicals from entering the environment and to help protect families from this pervasive challenge.” EPA has never before addressed safe drinking water levels for the compounds PFBS and GenX. Both have been linked to health problems like liver and kidney issues, while GenX has raised concerns around certain types of cancer. Today, the agency said that drinking water is only safe to consume if it contains less than 2,000 parts per trillion of PFBS and 10 ppt of GenX. Regulators are also replacing EPA’s preexisting health advisory level for PFOA and PFOS, which are linked to a wide range of health problems, including liver and kidney impacts as well as various cancers. PFOA in particular has been singled out as a likely carcinogen by EPA. The new levels are 4 parts per quadrillion for PFOA and 20 ppq for PFOS — “near zero levels,” as one EPA official described it, that are far lower than the previous level of 70 ppt that was set for both in 2016. Radhika Fox, EPA’s water chief and co-chair of the agency’s PFAS task force, announced the new health advisories at a national PFAS meeting in Wilmington, N.C. Fox, who has defended her agency’s pace in addressing PFAS, underscored in her remarks that a thorough, evidence-based approach is shaping EPA’s crackdown.v

Particulate pollution is reducing global life expectancy by more than two years: analysis -- Particulate air pollution is reducing life expectancy by 2.2 years globally compared to a hypothetical world that meets international health guidelines, a new report has found. Worldwide exposure to fine particulate patter — PM 2.5, or particles with a diameter of 2.5 microns or less — has an impact on par with that of smoking, more than three times that of alcohol use and unsafe water, according to the University of Chicago’s 2022 Air Quality Life Index.. The life expectancy effect of this type of pollution amounts to six times that of HIV/AIDS and 89 times that of conflict and terrorism, researchers observed. “It would be a global emergency if Martians came to Earth and sprayed a substance that caused the average person on the planet to lose more than two years of life expectancy,” Michael Greenstone, index co-creator and an economics professor at the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute, said in a statement. “This is similar to the situation that prevails in many parts of the world, except we are spraying the substance, not some invaders from outer space,” Greenstone added. ADVERTISING PM 2.5 poses such a threat that the World Health Organization (WHO) recently decreased what it deems to be a safe level of exposure from 10 micrograms per cubic meter to 5 micrograms per cubic meter, the authors noted. Despite the fact that the economy incurred significant losses during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, average PM 2.5 pollution remained largely unchanged from the year before, the researchers stressed. Meanwhile, growing evidence has emerged that even low levels of air pollution can damage human health, the authors added. These circumstances led the WHO to change its guidelines, bringing about 97.3 percent of the global population within the unsafe realm, according to the report. The worst impacts of PM 2.5 exposure are visible in South Asia, where more than half of the total life burden of pollution occurs worldwide, the researchers found. Residents of the region are projected to lose about five years off their lives on average if countries maintain today’s high levels of pollution. Since 2013, about 44 percent of the global rise in pollution has come from India, according to the study.

Glyphosate weedkiller damages wild bee colonies, study reveals - The critical ability of wild bumblebees to keep their colonies at the right temperature is seriously damaged by the weedkiller glyphosate, research has revealed.Glyphosate is the most widely used pesticide in history, intended to kill only plants. The harm to bumblebees – vital pollinators – was not identified in regulatory risk assessments, which only test whether a pesticide rapidly kills healthy, individual bees. However, the collective failure to regulate colony temperature could have a massive impact on its ability to produce the next generation, the scientists said.The damage seen in the study occurred when the colonies were running short of food. This is common in farming regions, where wildflowers can be killed directly by glyphosate. The research is the first on wild bees, of which there are 20,000 species, though glyphosate had already been shown to harm honeybeesby damaging larvae and the senses of adults.Standard risk assessments are performed on well-fed, parasite-free bees, not affected by the many stresses they encounter in the real world. The severe decline of many insects reported in recent years has been described by scientists as “frightening” and “tearing apart the tapestry of life”.“The tests will miss sublethal effects and, in the case of the bumblebees, this directly impacts on whether a colony will reproduce or not,” The study, published in the journal Science, examined colonies of buff-tailed bumblebees, one of the most numerous bumblebee species in Europe, and often used to represent wild bees in toxicity studies. These bees can raise their body temperature to incubate the colony’s brood, which uses up as much energy as flying.Fifteen colonies were divided into two halves by a wire mesh, with one half exposed to glyphosate at levels seen in fields. The exposed bees were able to keep the nest temperature above 28C (82.4F) for 25% less time than unexposed bees. “That can have massive effects on colony growth,” said Weidenmüller.The ideal temperature for the brood to develop is 30-35C. Below 28C development stops and at 25C only 17% of the larvae survive. The short flowering season means delayed development is very damaging. “There’s a race to reach the colony size [needed to produce new queens], so if you think of glyphosate imposing a time cost on them, they pay for it heavily,” she said.

Bird flu outbreak continues to spread in UK, North America - Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is continuing to spread among birds in Europe and North America, with thousands of birds killed by both the virus and preventative measures. Ducklings at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington were found to be infected with the bird flu, the National Park Service announced on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources announced that two foxes have been confirmed as having been infected with the bird flu. Both foxes were tested after being found dead in two cities in Utah. Top Articles By JPost Arizona reported its first cases of avian influenza on Wednesday after three nestling neotropical cormorants were found to be infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over 1,400 wild birds and nearly 40 million domesticated birds have been confirmed as infected with HPAI. "[A] highly mutable and deadly new form of avian influenza, which originated in poultry, is killing our wild seabirds in large numbers." Dr. Paul Walton, head of species and habitats, RSPB Scotland Thousands of birds have been dying on Quebec's Magdalen Islands due to the virus, according to The Canadian Press. "Nobody had to tell me that this was happening. It's obvious — we're talking about thousands of dead birds,'' said Magdalen Islands Mayor Jonathan Lapierre. Over two million birds have been affected by the bird flu outbreak in Canada, according to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. In the United Kingdom, large numbers of seabirds have been dying due to the virus in Scotland in recent weeks. Dr. Paul Walton, head of species and habitats for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Scotland, told the BBC that "a highly mutable and deadly new form of avian influenza, which originated in poultry, is killing our wild seabirds in large numbers." The RSPB called on the Scottish government to develop a response plan to the outbreak.

Avian flu has jumped from chickens to wild birds and is spreading fast - After a series of localised outbreaks in the past few years, avian flu has re-emerged as a major driver of bird deaths across the UK. Until the past few weeks, the latest outbreak of the disease – also known as bird flu or, to scientists, highly pathogenic avian influenza – was treated primarily as a problem for chickens and other domestic birds. This triggered localised responses such as culls, and farmers were ordered to keep the animals indoors for six months over the winter, which is why the UK had a period with no free-range eggs.But reports of large numbers of wild seabirds found dead in Scotland and increasingly in England and Wales, suggest that avian flu is now prevalent in wild birds across most of northern Britain. I encountered a number of these birds myself on the Northumberland coast.Scenes like these will make the crisis far more visible to the general public, and naturally they will be asking what more we can do to tackle the outbreak.The 2021-22 outbreak is a global problem, with cases of the virulent H5N1 subtype detected in West Africa, Asia, and nearly every country of Europe and North America. It is primarily a disease of domesticated birds, where it is thought to have originated, and has led to the culling of hundreds of millions of birds, including 38 million in the US this year alone. In the UK, the disease was first detected in October 2021. As elsewhere, the outbreak was at first largely confined to poultry, and farmers were forced to cull500,000 chickens and other birds. In response the UK established an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone including buffer zones of 10km around detected cases, with restrictions on bird movement and enhanced biosecurity.Over winter there were reports of a number of wild bird populations being affected by avian flu, including great skua, pink-footed geese and barnacle geese. These included the mass death of 4,000 birds on the Solway Firth, representing one-third of the Svalbard barnacle goose population that spend winters in the area.As spring has turned to summer, there is now no doubt that avian flu is now spreading into a wider diversity of wild birds in the UK. For some species this probably reflects their return to summer breeding colonies, and the increased mixing that involves (avian flu is spread by contact with saliva or droppings).As this breeding season reaches its peak, a wide array of seabirds have been affected, including great skua, eider ducks, fulmar, terns, gannets and guillemots. The UK holds over half the world’s population of gannet and great skua, both of which have been officially recognised as birds of moderate conservation concern (“amber status”). Avian flu adds to the litany of problems these birds face – from climate change to entanglement in abandoned fishing gear – and increases the concerns of organisations such as RSPB and Birdlife, who already consider this outbreak to be the worst the UK has ever faced.

Bird flu: Conservationists warn spreading infection is wiping out UK seabirds - Conservationists fear a highly pathogenic bird flu is to blame for a growing wave of mortality in UK seabirds, which were already facing severe pressure from climate change and overfishing. The H5N1 avian influenza has killed wild birds including cranes in Israel, Dalmatian pelicans in Greece, knots (a type of shorebird) in the Netherlands and now several UK seabird species, primarily gannets. More than 383,000 bird deaths from the virus have been counted by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) since October 2021. About 16,500 of a population of 43,000 Svalbard barnacle geese, which migrate between Scotland’s Solway Firth and Norway’s Svalbard, are estimated to have died during the recent winter, says James Reynolds at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, a UK charity. “But the epicentre now is…. in Shetland and in the Northern Isles [of Scotland] and it’s also showing up in the Western Isles and around mainland sites,” says Reynolds. “Wildlife has been particularly affected this [bird flu] season,” says a spokesperson at WOAH. “We are seeing significant mortality in a wider range of wild birds and in various geographical areas, which is unusual.” Birds have had to cope with avian influenza for thousands of years. However, the illness currently devastating wild birds – predominantly caused by the H5N1 virus – is a recent issue that has its origins in intensive poultry production in east Asia. The flu was first spread through the movement of poultry and is now spreading through the migration of wildlife. While the flu is unwelcome in wildfowl such as the Svalbard barnacle goose, it is a particularly acute threat for seabirds because they tend to be long-lived species with low reproductive rates. “So even once this wave of disease passes, it’s going to take the populations much longer to recover compared with quite fast-breeding species like geese,”

Deadly bird flu found in ducks on the Mall in Washington. - The Washington Post - The virus that causes the deadly avian flu affecting millions of wild and domestic birds across the country has been detected in mallard ducklings in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on the Mall, the National Park Service said Wednesday. It was the first confirmation of the “highly pathogenic avian influenza,” or HPAI, in Washington, the park service said. A “die-off” of more than a dozen ducklings at the reflecting pool was discovered a few weeks ago, Park Service spokesman Mike Litterst said Wednesday. When the animals underwent necropsies, two were found to have been infected with bird flu. He said it was not yet clear what killed the others. The virus is rarely transmitted to humans. “To date there has been only one documented human case of the currently circulating HPAI in the U.S.,” the Park Service said in a statement. “We’re not looking at another covid-type situation,” Litterst said. “But because humans can unwittingly facilitate the transfer between groups of birds, we just want to get the word out there.” So far, 39 million birds have been affected in flocks in 36 states — including 1.7 million in Maryland, 4 million in Pennsylvania and 1.4 million in Delaware, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Only 90 have been affected in Virginia. The current virus is believed to pose a low risk to the general public, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, although “some people may have job-related or recreational exposures to birds that put them at higher risk of infection.” But people should avoid handling live or dead birds or coming into contact with their droppings as the virus can be easily moved around on shoes, the Park Service said.

New type of coronavirus found in bank voles - Researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden have found a new type of coronavirus in bank voles.The peer-reviewed study, published on the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) on Wednesday, examined approximately 260 bank voles in Örebro County, Sweden, and showed that the "Grimsö Virus" is prevalent in rodents in that area.A bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is a type of rodent having reddish-brownish fur with some grey patches. Its tail is also roughly half the length of its body, which is approximately 4-6 centimeters long. Found in parks, hedgerows and gardens, they eat fruit, nuts and small insects, according to the Wildlife Trusts. Researchers at the university's Zoonosis Science Center studied the interaction of viruses transferred from animals to humans. The "Grimsö Virus" is considered to be a seasonal type of COVID-19, and can be passed to humans from rodents and mice. "We still do not know what potential threats the Grimsö Virus may pose to public health," said Prof. Åke Lundkvist, head of the Zoonosis Science Center. "However, based on our observations and previous coronaviruses identified among bank voles, there is good reason to continue monitoring the coronavirus among wild rodents." With infectious diseases linked to rodents on the rise, the research surrounding host animals is key to tackling future outbreaks.

Virginia could lose 42 percent of its tidal wetlands by 2100 due to sea level rise, study finds – A huge portion of Virginia’s tidal wetlands could disappear if global sea levels continue to rise at their current rate. Tidal wetlands provide numerous environmental benefits like providing a habitat for fisheries, capturing and storing carbon dioxide and acting as a defense against coastal storms and erosion. But many tidal wetlands are at risk of disappearing due to the effects of climate change. And while tidal wetlands can change in size by growing vertically and moving further inland, if sea levels rise too rapidly wetlands can essentially “drown” in place, according to Virginia Mercury. A new study published in the journal Environmental Research Communications states that Virginia could lose up to 42 percent of its tidal wetlands by 2100 if nothing is done to curb the effects of climate change. And all of that loss will be costly with one study claiming that losing a hectare, or roughly two football fields, of wetlands could cost the country an average of $1,900 extra a year in flood damages. In the past two decades, Earth has lost over 1,540 square miles of mangroves, tidal flats and tidal marshes, according to a study published in the journal Science last month, which is roughly the size of the Spanish island Mallorca.

 Warming water pushes endangered whale toward deadly boats - North Atlantic right whales are some of the most endangered marine mammals on the planet. Threatened by shipping collisions and tangles with fishing nets, fewer than 400 individuals are thought to exist in the wild today. Now, scientists are adding climate change to its list of dangers. Recent studies suggest that warming ocean waters are shifting the tiny crustaceans that right whales like to eat, causing them to multiply at different times of the year and move into new parts of the ocean. As the whales follow their prey, they’re abandoning some of their old feeding grounds, migrating into some new ones and arriving in some places earlier or later than they would usually be expected. As a result, scientists warn, they’re showing up in spots that don’t necessarily have adequate protections in place for them. That may increase their risk of running into ships or nets. A new study, out last week in the journal Global Change Biology, is the latest to raise the alarm. The research finds that right whales are changing the way they move through Cape Cod Bay, one of their preferred spring foraging grounds. They’re using the habitat more heavily than they did in the past and their peak numbers are shifting later in the season. The shifts appear to be pinned to changes in New England ocean temperatures, the study suggests. The scientists, led by Daniel Pendleton of the Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium, pulled data from aerial surveys conducted by whale researchers over Cape Cod Bay between 1998 and 2018. These surveys documented observations of marine mammals, including various species of whales, moving through the region. The researchers also collected data sets on ocean temperatures and phytoplankton levels, a way of evaluating changes in the abundance of tiny food sources in the water. The study investigated not only right whales, but also humpback whales and fin whales, two other species known to feed in Cape Cod Bay during the spring. They found that humpbacks also seem to be shifting the timing of their arrival later in the season — but unlike right whales, they couldn’t detect any association with ocean temperatures. Right whales, on the other hand, appeared to be changing their feeding behavior in tandem with warming waters. The study doesn’t prove the exact cause that’s driving this shift, but the researchers believe it’s likely a response to changes in the distribution of their food sources. Right whales tend to spread out and feed throughout the Gulf of Maine in the spring — that’s the body of water stretching up the New England coast from Massachusetts to Nova Scotia. But recent studies suggest the tiny crustaceans they eat are declining in some parts of the gulf. As a result, the researchers theorize that Cape Cod Bay — a spot that still has adequate food supplies — has turned into a sort of “waiting room” for North Atlantic right whales. It’s a place they can congregate in the spring while they wait for their food sources to build back up in other parts of the ocean. Speed limits for certain kinds of boats in Cape Cod Bay are restricted for part of the spring season, largely to protect right whales and other migratory marine animals. These restrictions were timed to coincide with the time of year when right whales are most abundant. But if the animals start sticking around longer, they could be at an increased risk of boat collisions later in the season when the speed limits — and the dangers — are higher.

Nearly 100,000 received FEMA aid under new equity policy - New policies established by the Federal Emergency Management Agency aimed at helping individuals qualify for disaster aid have resulted in nearly 100,000 people receiving assistance who would have been ineligible previously, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said yesterday. FEMA last summer expanded the types of documentation that people can use to show that they live in an area that was declared a federal disaster or own a home that was damaged in a disaster and are eligible for cash assistance, hotel stays and other emergency aid. The expansion was designed to help low-income and minority residents, who are more likely than others to lack traditional documentation such as a driver’s license or a property deed. Since the policy took effect in August, FEMA has given aid to 42,000 homeowners and 53,000 renters who, “just a year before, we would have denied assistance,” Criswell told members of the House Homeland Security Committee. Those 95,000 people received a total of $350 million in disaster aid from FEMA — an average of roughly $3,700 per person — Criswell said during a hearing on FEMA’s proposed fiscal 2023 budget. “This is really substantial,” Criswell said. Her comments came after E&E News revealed in a yearlong investigation published last month that FEMA spent disproportionate amounts of money to elevate homes in communities that are wealthy or overwhelmingly white (Climatewire, May 25). That may violate civil rights provisions in the Stafford Act, a 1988 law that authorizes the president to distribute federal funding after disasters (see related story). The National Low Income Housing Coalition praised FEMA in a statement after yesterday’s hearing. “These changes are much needed and long overdue,” coalition President Diane Yentel said, adding that advocates had been urging the revision since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. FEMA’s expansion of the documentation it accepts was a response to President Joe Biden’s executive order on advancing racial equity, which ordered federal agencies to “redress inequities in their policies and programs that serve as barriers to equal opportunity.” Biden issued the order on his first day in office.

FEMA home elevation funds could violate civil rights law - Federal programs that have elevated thousands of U.S. homes above floodwaters may violate civil rights law by shutting out many homeowners who are Black or Hispanic or who have low incomes.The Stafford Act, a 1988 federal law that authorizes the president to send state and local governments aid following disasters, requires that federal funds be spent equitably.Yet E&E News revealed in a yearlong investigation published last month that the Federal Emergency Management Agency spent disproportionate amounts of money elevating homes in communities that are wealthy or overwhelmingly white (Climatewire, May 25). The pattern is largely the result of federal prerequisites that are biased against Black, Hispanic and low-income households.“These policies are absolutely a violation of the Stafford Act’s nondiscrimination clause. There’s quite obviously a massive disparate impact on the basis of race, national origin and ethnicity,” said Madison Sloan, a lawyer and director of disaster recovery at Texas Appleseed, a racial justice group.Advocates said FEMA could address the discrimination by revising how it decides whether a flood protection project makes financial sense — a process that favors expensive homes.“FEMA should be prioritizing projects that protect the largest number of people and the largest number of homes, and not the homes that are worth the most,” Sloan said.FEMA press secretary Jeremy Edwards didn’t respond directly to questions about the agency’s alleged violation of civil rights provisions. But he said FEMA is analyzing ways to help disadvantaged communities win FEMA mitigation grants, and added that the agency will begin this year prioritizing communities with high rates of poverty, large minority populations and other indicators of vulnerability to disasters.“We understand that the reality of underserved communities creates barriers to access programs and assistance equally,” Edwards said in an email yesterday, adding that FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell “recognizes this profound injustice.”The Stafford Act has an unusually strong civil rights provision that protects a wide range of people from both intentional discrimination in the distribution of disaster funds and inadvertent discrimination caused by seemingly benign policies, said Hannah Perls, a lawyer with Harvard Law School’s Environmental & Energy Law Program.Despite those protections, discrimination cases against FEMA face daunting challenges, in part because the agency can claim that it selects grant recipients without knowing their race or income levels. FEMA does not track those details.

On this flood policy, Biden and Trump administrations agree - The Biden administration’s plan to overhaul the federal government’s flood insurance program was proposed in almost identical fashion nearly five years ago by a top Trump official, according to a letter obtained yesterday by E&E News. In October 2017, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney urged Congress to approve legislation barring the government from insuring newly built homes in flood zones and letting the government drop coverage for homeowners who received repeated claims payments. Mulvaney also asked to establish a nationwide requirement for prospective homebuyers and renters to be told about a property’s risk of being flooded. And he wanted the government to stop writing new flood policies for any commercial building regardless of its location. Advertisement The Biden administration recently asked Congress to approve identical changes (Climatewire, June 13). Some of the language the Biden administration used in a May 11 letter to congressional leaders mirrors what Mulvaney wrote in an Oct. 4, 2017, letter describing proposed changes to flood insurance policies. The disclosure of the Mulvaney letter and its similarities to the Biden administration proposal drew criticism from Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.). “It’s unacceptable to see FEMA taking cues from the Trump Administration on reforms for the NFIP,” Menendez said in a statement to E&E News, referring to the National Flood Insurance Program. “In the unlikely scenario this proposal becomes law, it would bar new policies for vulnerable homes and small business owners that are still reeling from the pandemic, something Democrats resoundingly fought against in 2017,” Menendez added. Menendez is on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, which oversees the flood program and holds a hearing today on reauthorizing it for the first time in a decade. Both the Biden and Trump proposals represent a new vision for the government’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which covers nearly 5 million properties and provides most of the nation’s flood insurance but has never discontinued a policy or refused to cover a property. The NFIP historically has charged discounted premiums that do not reflect the actual flood risk of properties and have left the program unable to pay claims following massive hurricanes in 2005 and 2017. The program, run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, repeatedly has borrowed money from the Treasury Department. It currently owes federal taxpayers $20.5 billion that it borrowed in 2017 after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

Severe thunderstorms leave three people missing, nearly 500 000 customers without power across Midwest, U.S. - (videos) Severe thunderstorms hit the U.S. Midwest from June 13 to 15, 2022, causing widespread damage and leaving nearly 500 000 customers without power. Severe weather is now shifting to the Northeast. On Monday, June 13, severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and damaging winds to a wide swath of the Midwest and parts of the South, leaving three people missing. According to Milwaukee fire and police officials, the body of a 10-year-old boy who was swept away by floodwaters in a drainage ditch on Monday evening was found on Tuesday, but two adults who entered the water in an attempt to rescue him are still missing. Most of the property damage and power outages on June 14 and 15 were in Ohio, where more than 360 000 customers were in the dark, followed by Indiana with 50 000 and West Virginia with 51 000. The Storm Prediction Center has confirmed the powerful wind storm on Monday night across the Ohio Valley as a derecho. “We have confirmed 3 separate E-F1 tornadoes, as well as a pocket of intense straight line winds from a macroburst,” meteorologists from the NWS office in Cleveland said.

Yellowstone shuts to visitors due to 'extremely hazardous conditions' from rainfall, heavy flooding - All five entrances to Yellowstone National Park have been temporarily closed after unprecedented rainfall and flooding damaged the park's infrastructure, creating "extremely hazardous conditions." Park officials said the deluge has led to rockslides, mudslides, damaged roads and power outages."Preliminary assessments show multiple sections of roads throughout the park have been either washed out or covered in mud or rocks, and multiple bridges may be affected," officials said in a statement. The park is shut to inbound visitor traffic through at least Wednesday as officials assess the damage. Forecasts are calling for even more rainfall, with the Yellowstone River already at record levels. Visitors began to be evacuated from the park on Monday afternoon. The highway between Gardiner and Mammoth in Montana is washed out trapping tourists in Gardiner, as historic flooding damages roads and bridges and floods homes along area rivers on Monday, June 13, 2022. "We will not know timing of the park's reopening until flood waters subside and we're able to assess the damage throughout the park. It is likely that the northern loop will be closed for a substantial amount of time," superintendent Cam Sholly said in a statement. "Strains on wastewater and water treatment facilities could become a factor and the park is taking precautions to ensure facilities are not failing," Yellowstone said in a statement.

House falls into ragging Yellowstone River during unprecedented floods, Montana - Video from a southern Montana community near Yellowstone National Park shows a house falling into the raging Yellowstone River on June 13, 2022, after heavy rain and melting snow caused unprecedented flooding. Destructive flooding and landslides also hit Yellowstone National Park, washing out numerous roads and bridges in the area, cutting off electricity, and forcing people to evacuate. The floods closed the park for the first time in 34 years.1 Yellowstone received 60 mm (2.5 inches) of rain from Saturday to Monday, June 11 to 13, while the Beartooth Mountains northeast of Yellowstone received as much as 100 mm (4 inches), according to the National Weather Service. “It’s a lot of rain, but the flooding wouldn’t have been anything like this if we didn’t have so much snow,” said Cory Mottice, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Billings, Montana. “This is flooding that we’ve just never seen in our lifetimes before.”

Yellowstone closed, evacuations begin amid road-crushing floods - Yellowstone National Park is shuttered to visitors indefinitely in the wake of record-shattering floods — caused by a combination of heavy rains and late snowmelt — that triggered rockslides and mudslides and washed out roads and bridges.National Park Service officials closed all five entrances to the park yesterday and began evacuating visitors, marking the first time a natural disaster has forced the agency to do so since wildfires destroyed 800,000 acres of parkland in 1988 (Greenwire, Oct. 5, 2016)."We will not know timing of the park’s reopening until flood waters subside and we're able to assess the damage throughout the park," Superintendent Cam Sholly said in a statement."It is likely that the northern loop will be closed for a substantial amount of time," he added, referring to the area that includes Mammoth Hot Springs in Wyoming.The National Park Service released an aerial video of the park's northern entrance, from Gardiner, Mont., to Mammoth Hot Springs showing raging waters and collapsed roadways.

Parts of flooded Yellowstone likely to remain closed all summer -Yellowstone National Park officials say portions of the park may be closed for an “extended” period following catastrophic flooding that caused a park shutdown, the ejection of more than 10,000 visitors and widespread infrastructure damage whose repair will require both serious dollars and tough decisions. Park roads were knocked sideways. At least six park employees lost their residence, which widely circulated video showed collapsing into the raging Yellowstone River. Gateway communities like Gardiner were temporarily cut off. Power outages hobbled wastewater treatment facilities and sewer lines have been compromised, potentially including one beneath the Yellowstone River.Quirky weather kicked off the flooding, which Sholly explained occurred when 2 to 3 inches of rain fell amid rising temperatures over the weekend on about 5 inches of accumulated snow, causing the snowpack to melt. By Sunday night, Sholly reported that the Yellowstone River was blasting by at 51,000 cubic feet per second, compared with a recorded high of 31,000 cubic feet per second reached in the 1990s. Yellowstone closed to visitors Monday, with park officials emptying lodges, campgrounds and parking lots, as well as flying helicopter missions to alert remote backcountry hikers. Sholly said the park’s southern section, which includes such iconic features as Old Faithful and Grant Village, might reopen within a week. “But even if we got started right now, I’m not sure we could get the road on the northern end reopened,” Sholly said. “So that will likely stay closed for the rest of the season.” Park County Commissioner Bill Berg acknowledged to reporters that “it’s going to be pretty tough for Gardiner businesses to recover from, and that’s not even to mention the impact to infrastructure.” Noting that “half the park cannot support all of the visitation,” Sholly said that park officials are “exploring a range of options” for the eventual partial reopening that could include timed entry or potential reservation-type systems to use when the southern section reopens. Even with this, all of the decisions concerning the 2.2 million-acre park are subject to the whims of the weather. “If we get warming temperatures and the right mixture of precipitation like we did Sunday, we could have another flood event coming through Yellowstone in the upcoming four or five days,” Sholly said. And park officials know they may not even know the worst part yet (Greenwire, June 14).

Floods and landslides claimed 90 lives and severely damaged more than 16 000 homes since March, Colombia - At least 80 people lost their lives and another 10 are still missing due to floods and landslides in Colombia since March 2022. According to the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD), the most affected regions are Cundinamarca, Antioquia, and Santander. A total of 877 events related to the rainy season were reported between March 16 and June 12. 34 114 families or 95 000 people were affected, 80 people were killed, 91 were injured, and 10 people are still missing. There were 16 295 houses severely damaged and 400 houses destroyed. In addition, 730 highways, 72 bridges, 37 pedestrian crossings, 90 aqueducts, 37 sewers, 108 educational institutions, and 7 health centers were damaged. According to the forecasts, the rains will continue, especially in the Caribbean and Orinoquia regions, however, special attention should be paid to communications issued by IDEAM in order to be alert to any atypical situation that may occur due to excess rainfall, UNGRD said. The soils remain saturated and the volume of the rivers continues to increase, so it is recommended to pay special attention to the areas that have already been identified as potential landslide threats and floods. Regarding the situation in the Bogotá River, the IDEAM has indicated that high levels continue in the middle and lower basin of the river. Because this situation is expected to continue, IDEAM urges the population living along the river to be continuously attentive to the changes in the river levels, for Bogotá River and all its tributaries.

Shocking video shows Guatemala beach covered in plastic waste - Horrifying footage shows the extent of plastic pollution in Guatemala as a beach is covered in bottles and other plastic paraphernalia. 4Ocean, a business and ocean clean-up company, shared this video on TikTok to highlight the state of the Central American country's coastline. The company estimates that approximately 80% of ocean plastic such as this comes from “mismanaged waste” on land - in Guatemala, there's only one rubbish dump for the entire country.

Ankara’s deadliest flood in recent memory, Turkey - Unusually heavy rainfall hit Ankara, Turkey over the weekend, causing destructive floods that claimed the lives of at least 4 people. Another person was killed in the central province of Karaman. The floods, which swept away trees and inundated buildings in several districts, were Ankara’s deadliest in recent memory, according to Daily Sabah.1 The worst-hit part of the capital was Akyurt, a district in the city’s northeast, with a population of about 34 000 people. Extensive damage was also reported in neighborhoods near Esenboğa Airport, the city’s main aviation hub, with floodwaters submerging fields and gardens. Ankara municipality officials said they responded to 6 670 incidents during the downpours and strong winds, which emerged earlier last week and continued into the weekend, from collapsed walls to people stranded in their vehicles or residences. Schools were closed in Ankara and the central town of Gemerek. In just 30 minutes, the district of Çankaya registered 28 mm (1.1 inches) of rain, nearly its entire June rainfall average. The latest data by the Turkish State Meteorological Services (TSMS) show precipitation in May across Turkey increased by more than 100% compared to May 2021.

Millions of homes underwater as massive floods hit parts of India and Bangladesh - Massive floods affecting northeastern India and Bangladesh over the past couple of days have left at least 18 people dead and millions of homes underwater. At least 9 people died in India’s Assam state, as of Saturday, June 18, 2022, bringing the number of people killed in this year’s floods and landslides to 55. An estimated 2 million people saw their homes flooded in Assam alone while more than 1 million people are currently taking shelter in 373 relief camps. A total of 2 930 villages have been affected after the Brahmaputra River breached its banks in 28 of Assam’s 33 districts. 43 338 ha (107 362 acres) of cropland have been affected and at least 410 animals were washed away. Meanwhile, a boat carrying flood-affected people capsized in the Hojai district, leaving three children missing. “The volume of rainfall has been unprecedented,” said Sanjay O’Neil, an official at the meteorological station in Gauhati, adding that they expect moderate to heavy rainfall in several parts of Assam until Sunday, June 19. Another 8 people died in different lighting-related incidents across parts of neighboring Bangladesh on June 17. The worst affected districts there are along the Indian border. Dhaka’s flood forecasting and warning center said water levels in all major rivers across the country are rising. The worst is expected in Sunamganj and Sylhet districts in the north-eastern region, as well as in Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Nilphamari and Rangpur districts in northern Bangladesh.

Major damage after large tornado hits Guangzhou megalopolis - Guangdong, China - A large stovepipe tornado touched down in China’s most important port city of Guangzhou, Guangdong Province on June 16, 2022, causing major damage as it moved into downtown. While reports and images are still coming in, locals are reporting major damage and possible injuries. “This might be the first time a tornado entered a city holding more than 18 million people,” said Eric Wang, Chinese extreme weather enthusiast. “Lots of power flashes…. we’ve already heard major damage and possible injuries. The affected area has already undergone a blackout.” “As far as we know, this tornado hit commercial buildings and did major damage to the transmission of the subways.”

Texas Power Demand Hits Record As Heat Dome Roasts State -Texas power demand soared to a record high on Sunday amid a severe heat wave sending temperatures into triple-digit territory. The good news is no major disruptions were reported on the grid as households and businesses cranked up their air conditioners. Data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's grid operator, shows power demand hit 74.9 gigawatts around 1650 local time, surpassing the previous 74.8 gigawatts in August 2019. Soaring demand for power this time of year is highly unusual for two reasons: First, it's early in the season for temperatures to be so extreme. Second, it comes on a weekend when electricity demand trends lower because some businesses are closed.On Sunday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) published a heat advisory for much of the state, except for eight of the state's 254 counties. NWS said Dallas hit 105 degrees Fahrenheit, Houston 100, and Midland 103 on Sunday Weather models show average max temperatures across Texas could sustain a period of triple digits for the next two weeks. The heat dome could begin to dissipate by the 27th of the month. Increasing cooling demand has sent power prices surging across the state. Meanwhile, grid operators in the Central US warned Friday of potential capacity shortfalls that could produce reliability concerns through 2024. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a regulatory body that manages grid stability, also warned about the risks of power across multiple grids from the Great Lakes to the West Coast.

Texas breaks power demand record during June heat wave | The Texas Tribune -A heat wave caused electricity use in Texas to reach an all-time high on Sunday, but the state’s power grid appeared to hold up without major disruption.Power demand surpassed 75 gigawatts at around 5:15 p.m., surpassing the previous record of 74.8 gigawatts in August 2019. Still, the state’s capacity remained well above that, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.The massive demand was unusual for two reasons. First, it came in June, which tends to be slightly less hot than the state’s warmest late-summer months. It also came on the weekend, when electricity demand tends to be slightly lower as many office buildings are empty.But the weekend has been extremely hot even by Texas standards, with much of the state over 100 degrees. On Sunday afternoon, the National Weather Service had issued a heat advisory for all but eight of the state’s 254 counties. Many counties were under an excessive heat warning, which means the heat index was expected to be over 105 degrees for at least two hours.Texans have anxiously watched the state’s ability to ensure power supply ever since a winter storm incited massive and prolonged blackouts in the state caused more than 200 deaths. In May, ERCOT asked Texans to conserve power during a heat wave that coincided with some power plant outages. No such conservation request has been necessary this weekend.

Texas power demand breaks record as severe heat wave hits the state - Power demand recently hit a record high in Texas amid a severe heat wave and will likely break more records this week as homes and businesses blast air conditioners across the country's second-most populous state.Demand on the power grid reached more than 75,000 megawatts on Sunday, surpassing a previous record of 74,820 megawatts set in August 2019, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the grid for more than 26 million customers who comprise about 90% of the state's electric load. One megawatt can power roughly 200 homes in Texas during high demand and about 1,000 homes in normal weather conditions.Soaring power usage prompted by extreme weather has triggered concerns over the vulnerability of the state's grid system, following a deadly winter storm in February 2021 that left millions of residents without power for days.On Monday, temperatures above 100 degrees were forecast for most of Texas. Such extreme temperatures are not typical so early in the summer season, and high power demand in the state usually occurs later in the summer in August and September.ERCOT, however, has said it has enough supplies available to meet demand during the heat wave even as it forecasts rising power demand throughout the week.Last month, ERCOT asked residents to conserve power amid high temperatures by setting their thermostats to 78 degrees or above and avoiding the usage of large appliances such as dishwashers, washers and dryers during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m.The request came after six power generation facilities tripped offline amid the heat, resulting in the loss of approximately 2,900 of megawatts of electricity.Climate change has prompted more frequent and destructive weather events such as heat waves, drought and wildfires, which have increasingly forced blackouts and overwhelmed some of the country's infrastructure.Extreme weather events have caused 67% more major power outages in the U.S. since 2000, according to an analysis of national power outage data by research group Climate Central.

Cattle in Kansas die by the thousands during a brutal heat wave : NPR - Intense heat that baked Kansas over the weekend is being blamed for killing thousands of cattle — a toll documented in striking images on social media."The Kansas Department of Health and Environment is aware of at least 2,000 cattle deaths that occurred in the southwest part of Kansas," Matt Lara, the agency's communications director, told NPR on Thursday.Lara also confirmed conditions had made it "difficult for the cows to stay cool."In widely seen video footage, rows of carcasses are shown lined up along the edge of a farm field. State officials are blaming a heat wave that sent temperatures higher than 100 degrees.The new losses come as farmers across the Great Plains region are already struggling to cope with drought and high winds, along with the increased threat of wildfires.The figure from the state health and environment agency reflects only the losses at farms that asked for help in disposing of carcasses, suggesting the actual tally could be higher.A spokesperson for the Kansas Department of Agriculture confirmed to NPR on Thursday that "several weather factors combined which led to heat stress for cattle that impacted cattle producers."But the representative also noted that cattle ranches aren't required to report those losses, "so we don't have any data about the extent of the impact."Dangerous weather conditions aren't confined to any one county in Kansas, where beef cattle dominates the agriculture sector, making it one of the main cattle-producing U.S. states. Nearly the entire western half of Kansas is currently classified as abnormally dry or in a drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor website.

Thousands of cattle die under mysterious circumstances, Kansas - (videos) An estimated 2 000 head of cattle have died in Ulysses, Kansas over the past couple of days, and more than 10 000 across the entire state of Texas. While the deaths have been blamed on the heatwave, high humidity levels, and lack of nighttime cooling, many people are speculating this might not be the case. The exact number of dead cattle is also unknown. Kansas Department of Health and Environment spokesperson said the number of reported deaths was at least 2 000, while the Progressive Farmer (DTN) placed the number at 10 000, adding that final numbers continue to come in.1 Others are saying 10 000 is the number across the entire state of Kansas. The deaths occurred at multiple feedlots but most were concentrated around Ulysses. Temperatures in Ulysses began to exceed 37 °C (100 °F) on June 11 and rose to 40 °C (104 °F) by June 13, with humidity levels ranging from 18 to 35%. According to veterinarian A.J. Tarpoff who works with Kansas State University Extension, large losses in feedlots due to heat stress seem to start every year around June. When there is a perfect storm of too much heat and no opportunity for nighttime cooling, cattle can accumulate heat and die from stress, Tarpoff said, adding that this situation can hit both feedlot and grazing animals. However, since the number of deaths seems unusually high, many people speculate that weather conditions might not be the sole reason.

Arizona's Pipeline Fire Has Burned Seven Square Miles Near Flagstaff (PHOTOS) A wildfire outside of Flagstaff, Arizona, burned seven square miles and sparked hundreds of evacuations on Sunday. The fire, which ignited on Sunday morning, was named the Pipeline Fire and it was burning about six miles north of Flagstaff. NBC News reported thatthe fire tripled in size by the time the day was over due to strong winds.Nearly 700 homes were under evacuation due to the blaze, including homes around the area of Schultz Pass Road and Arizona Snowbowl as well as residents in Timberline and the Crater Estates. Other residents remain on standby. A suspect was arrested in connection with the fire, according to local authorities.No structures or homes have been destroyed or burned as of Monday morning, according to 12News.Monday has more gusty wind in store for the area, which may work to fuel the flames. Click through the slideshow above to see photos from of fire.

Arizona Pipeline Fire: Hundreds are urged to evacuate due to wildfire near Flagstaff as thousands more are warned to prepare to leave - A wildfire burning just six miles north of Flagstaff, Arizona, has prompted evacuations for hundreds of people, and thousands more have been told by authorities to prepare for future evacuation, authorities said Sunday night.The Pipeline Fire was first reported by a fire lookout at around 10:15 a.m. Sunday and has grown to 4,500 acres, according to InciWeb, a US clearinghouse for wildfire information. Burning slightly west of Schultz Pass, the blaze is active on all sides and continues to grow, InciWeb said.A total of 690 households have been ordered to evacuate and another group of households has been informed they may have to evacuate soon or imminently, Coconino County spokesman Trey Williams told CNN Sunday evening. An additional 2,410 households have been told to prepare for imminent evacuation. As of Sunday night, no homes or structures had been destroyed, InciWeb said. While the cause of the blaze is under investigation, authorities arrested a 57-year-old man Sunday in connection with the fire, the Coconino County Sheriff's Office said in a news release. After responding to a report of a fire off Snowbowl Road, deputies were told there was a white pickup truck seen leaving the area of the Pipeline Fire, the release said. Deputies stopped a vehicle matching the description and arrested the driver. The man was charged with federal natural resource violations, the release said, but regulations prohibit his name, photo or charges from being released. Less than two months ago, hundreds of households in Flagstaff were forced to evacuate due tothe Tunnel Fire, which burned about 14 miles northeast of the city. The fire, which began April 17, ultimately burned about 19,000 acres, according to InciWeb. A shelter for displaced families has been set up by the American Red Cross at Flagstaff's Sinagua Middle School, which also hosted the evacuation site for the Tunnel Fire. In total, 270 fire personnel are battling the Pipeline Fire, which has more than quadrupled in size since Sunday morning. As many as eight air tankers and five helicopters were deployed Sunday to combat the growing flames and more are expected to join the efforts Monday, according to InciWeb. As of Monday, nearly 30,000 wildfires have burned around 2.5 million acres across the US so far this year, which exceeds the pace of any year over the past decade, according to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center. This makes 2022's early wildfire season the most active in a decade, and the third since records began in 1999, behind June 11 when a record 4 million acres burned, and 2.7 million acres burned in 2006, according to NIFC spokeswoman Sheri Ascherfeld.

Western wildfires force evacuations in Arizona, California - - The Western U.S. on Monday marked another day of hot, dry and windy weather as crews from California to New Mexico battled wildfires that had forced hundreds of people to leave their homes. Roughly 2,500 homes have been evacuated because of two wildfires burning on the outskirts of Flagstaff in northern Arizona, officials said at an afternoon briefing. The wildfire prompted the county to declare an emergency. It's been fueled by high winds that have grounded aircraft as an option for firefighting. Crews are planning on being able to use aircraft Tuesday as winds moderate, authorities said. Incident Cmdr. Aaron Graeser said the Flagstaff-area fire is one of the country’s top priorities for firefighting resources. “Every potential fire source was a problem today, and every potential unburned area was receptive to fire today,” Current conditions have also kept fire managers from being able to better map it by air but the fire is estimated to be 8 square miles (20 square kilometers). Crews were expecting wind gusts up to 50 mph (80 kph) as they battled the blaze that has burned through parts of the footprint left by another springtime fire that destroyed over two dozen homes as well as parts of other fire scars. The Arizona Snowbowl ski resort closed as a precaution because of the wildfire — the second to hit the area this year. . "We are in the same exact spot doing the same exact thing as we were a month and a half ago. People are tired.” Two other smaller wildfires northeast of the blaze were also burning Monday. Wildfires broke out early this spring in multiple states in the Western U.S., where climate change and an enduring drought are fanning the frequency and intensity of forest and grassland fires. The number of square miles burned so far this year is more than double the 10-year national average, and states like New Mexico already have set records with devastating blazes that destroyed hundreds of homes while causing environmental damage that is expected to affect water supplies. Nationally, more than 6,200 wildland firefighters were battling nearly three dozen uncontained fires that had charred over 1 million acres (4,408 square kilometers), according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Even in Alaska, forecasters have warned that many southwestern fires have grown exceptionally over the last week, which is unusual for that area. Southwest Alaska normally experiences shorter periods of high fire danger because intermittent rain can provide relief, but since mid-May the region has been hot and windy, helping to dry out vegetation. Favorable weather Monday helped slow the progression of a tundra wildfire just over 3 miles (4.8 kilometers) away from an Alaska Native village. The lightning-sparked fire is estimated at about 193 square miles (500 square kilometers). It's burning dry grass and shrubs in southwest Alaska's mostly treeless tundra. In California, evacuations were ordered for about 300 remote homes near a wildfire that flared up over the weekend in forest land northeast of Los Angeles near the Pacific Crest Trail in the San Gabriel Mountains. The blaze saw renewed growth Sunday afternoon and by midday Monday had scorched about 1.5 square miles (3.9 square km) of pine trees and dry brush, . “The fuel is very dry, so it acts like a ladder, carrying flames from the bottom of the trees to the very top,” Dierkes said. Crews were also contending with unpredictable winds that were expected to strengthen later in the day, she said. Aside from mandatory evacuations for some, the remainder of the mountain town of Wrightwood, with about 4,500 residents, was under an evacuation warning. Several roads also were closed. The fire was 18% contained.

California Wildfire Scorches Nearly 1,000 Acres and Prompts Evacuations - A fast-moving wildfire in California’s Angeles National Forest has grown to nearly 1,000 acres in a little more than a day, prompting road closures and the evacuation of a large portion of a community about 30 miles northwest of San Bernardino.The blaze, named the Sheep Fire, is one of more than 30 wildfires that were active on Monday and that have burned about one million acres across five states, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. The fires, combined with a heat wave in the Southwest, have been fueled by sustained dry and windy conditions.The fires have prompted mandatory evacuations in Arizona and Southern California. The largest fires were in New Mexico, where they threatened structures and spread across 680,000 acres in the state’s national forests, the Fire Center said Monday.The Sheep Fire was only five percent contained as of Monday afternoon. Videos shared on Twitter showed trees ablaze and firefighters battling huge flames bordering a highway. Otherimages on Twitter showed air tankers releasing fire retardant to slow the wildfire’s spread.The cause of the fire is under investigation, said the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, which said the fire had been “especially challenging due to dense vegetation, steep terrain, and high and erratic winds.”As of Monday afternoon, evacuation orders for a large portion of Wrightwood, a community of 4,500 people, remained in place, said Mara Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Office. Wrightwood, at an elevation of 6,000 feet in the San Gabriel mountains, is a mountain resort community 15 miles off the interstate, according to its website.Red flag warnings, designating an increased risk of fire, were in effect on Monday for more than three million people in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.Critical fire weather conditions were expected for much of the Southwest and the southern and central Rockies and High Plains on Monday, the National Weather Service said.As of Monday, at least five wildfires were active in California, including the Barrett Fire in San Diego County and the Brandie Fire in Yuba County, according to the State Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.In Northern Arizona on Monday, dense smoke was visible from U.S. 89, which was closed north of Flagstaff, the Arizona Department of Transportation said. Two major wildfires, the Pipeline and Haywire Fires, prompted multiple evacuations and triggered warnings about potential additional evacuation orders. The Pipeline Fire, which was first reported on Sunday morning just six miles north of Flagstaff, has grown to about 5,000 acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Early on Monday morning, the Haywire Fire began just northeast of the Pipeline Fire, officials in Coconico County, Ariz., said. Within six hours, it had already burned through 1,600 acres.The Weather Service in Flagstaff urged caution, saying on Twitter on Monday that it was “going to be a tough day out there.”“Strong southwest winds, very low humidity, and dry fuels will promote explosive wildfire growth across all of northern Arizona on Monday,” it said.Dangerous heat was expected to stretch from the Midwest to the Southeast through the middle of the week. As of Monday, more than 110 million people in the southern and central United States were under heat alerts or advisories, according to the Weather Service.

Alaska Ablaze --On June 4–5, 2022, thunderstorms moved across south-central and southwest Alaska, delivering nearly 5,000 lightning strikes and igniting dozens of wildfires. It was the latest outbreak in an unusually active fire season so far.As of June 14, 2022, there were 85 active fires burning across the state. More than half of them were burning in southwest Alaska, which is shown in a natural-color image (above) acquired on June 10, 2022, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite.In the Yukon Delta, the East Fork fire has become the largest tundra fire on record. Ignited on May 31 by a lightning strike, it has burned more than 150,000 acres along the Yukon River north of the village of St. Mary’s.In the detailed image below, acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8, smoke is billowing from the East Fork fire and the Apoon Pass fire, which has burned about 15,000 acres.Northerly winds drove the East Fork fire within about 3.5 miles (6 kilometers) of the village of St. Mary’s. Although no mandatory evacuation orders were issued, residents of St. Mary’s, and the nearby Yukon River villages of Mountain Village, Pitkas Point, and Pilot Station—all of which can be reached only by boat or plane—were encouraged to voluntarily relocate.On June 13, the wind shifted and allowed firefighters to attack the western edge of the fire. The firefighters were supported by “scooper” aircraft dropping water, and by dronesdropping ping-pong sized plastic balls that ignite to burn vegetation and create fire breaks.To the east, the Hog Butte fire has so far burned about 58,000 acres about 125 miles (200 kilometers) west of Denali National Park. On June 11, 2022, the Hog Butte fire spawned apyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) that reached an altitude of about 6 miles (10 kilometers). It was the first pyroCb over Alaska in two years.According to a report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, by mid-June this year, 250 wildfires had already burned more than 770,000 acres, not counting prescribed burns. That is already more than the 30-year median of 600,000 acres burned during the entire wildfire season, noted Rick Thoman, a climate specialist at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy and the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Over the last 30 years, the median area burned by mid-June has been about 50,000 acres.

 Average acreage burned in wildfires doubled since 1991 - The average acreage burned by wildfires more than doubled between 1991 and 2021, according to a report published Thursday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). During the period covered by the report, the number of annual wildfires is down slightly, but the acreage burned has soared. Between 1991 and 2021, the total number fell from some 76,000 to about 59,000. However, about 7 million acres burned in 2021, compared to 3 million acres in 1991. The 2021 acreage was still lower than the previous year, which saw about 10 million acres burned. The report also found that between 2016 and 2020, federal spending on wildfire suppression came to $2.5 billion in 2020 dollars. During the 30-year period covered by the report, the majority of acreage burned was federal land for all but five years, between 50 and 70 percent in most cases, although more individual fires were on nonfederal lands. Fires on federal lands are typically bigger than those on privately owned land or land owned by state or local governments. The CBO attributed much of this disparity to the fact that fires on public lands are often in remote, sparsely populated areas that are considered less of a priority to extinguish. Of the 495,000 fires on federal lands between 1991 and 2021, the average size was 225 acres, compared to an average of 45 acres for the 1.8 million fires on other lands during the same period. Both categories of fire grew in size on average during those three decades, with those on federal lands nearly quadrupling in acreage, compared to a smaller growth of about two times for other lands. More than 400,000 bottles of over-the-counter medication recalled due to issues with child-proofing The majority of fires bigger than 40,000 acres were in the western United States., according to the CBO. Since 2010, the acreage burned has been smaller for plains and Rocky Mountain states than for those along the West Coast. Meanwhile, while southern states are less likely to see bigger fires, those fires in southern states that exceeded 40,000 acres burned more than Pacific and Mountain West states combined in 2011. The CBO attributed this phenomenon to an unusually dry spring in the South that year, as well as a number of large fires in South Texas. Increasing temperatures have been a major factor in the overall upward trend, according to the CBO. Since 1990, temperatures have topped the historical average across the continent nearly every year, and the area west of the Rocky Mountains has seen atypically dry conditions for much of the year for most of the last two years.

New eruption at Bulusan volcano covers nearby communities in heavy ash, Philippines - A new phreatic eruption was detected by the Bulusan Volcano Network at 20:37 UTC on June 11, 2022 (03:37 LT on June 12). The event lasted 18 minutes based on the seismic record but the eruption plume was not visible in camera monitors. Bulusan’s last eruption took place on June 5, forcing PHIVOLCS to raise the Alert Level to 1. Outgoing Sorsogon governor and Senator-elect Francis ‘Chiz’ Escudero said ash fall affected villages in the towns of Juban, Casiguran, and Magallanes.1 Escudero said the personnel of the Bureau of Fire Protection, police, and soldiers immediately started the clean-up along Maharlika Highway, especially in the villages of Bacolod and Rangas in Juban town which were affected by heavy ashfall. Arian Aguallo, information officer of the municipal disaster risk reduction and management office of Juban, said at least 13 villages were affected by the ash fall in their town. Based on the initial report, the heavily affected areas were villages of Añog, Puting Sapa, Bacolod, Buraburan, Catanusan, Calateo, Rangas, Sipaya and Aroroy, all in Juban. Governor Chiz urged all residents to take extra precautions or avoid going through the Maharlika Highway in the town of Juban because of the thickness of ash. According to the Tokyo VAAC, the eruption ejected ash to an estimated altitude of 5.2 km (17 000 feet) above sea level. The explosion was felt at Intensity III by residents of Brgy. Añog, Juban and at Intensity II in Brgy. Inlagadian, Casiguran, all within 5 km (3.1 miles) of the Bulusan summit, PHIVOLCS said.2 Rumbling sounds accompanying the eruption were also reported by witnesses in Sitio Bagong Barrio, Brgy. Santa Lourdes, Barcelona, Brgy. Inlagadian and Brgy. San Juan, Casiguran, Brgy. Bentuco, Gubat, and Brgys. Añog, Calateo, and Puting Sapa, Juban. A brief incandescence at the base of the eruption plume was also reported in Brgy. Inlagadian, Casiguran. By daybreak, multiple active vents at the summit could be observed spewing ash and steam to a height of at least 500 m (1 640 feet) before being drifted to the northwest. In the morning, six vents – the major crater called Blackbird, three explosion pits on the summit, and the lateral vents on the northwest and north sides of the summit – were actively degassing short plumes which entrained ash until at least 09:00 LT in the morning. The plumes dispersed into a long veil of ash extending several kilometers to the northwest. This period of “ashing” was accompanied by very weak sporadic volcanic tremor. Degassing of steam-laden plumes continues while the Blackbird Crater generates a thin haze of ash upon the upper northwestern slopes.

'Delusional': UN chief slams new fossil fuel funding and warns of climate chaos -- The U.N. Secretary General has slammed new funding for fossil fuel exploration, describing it as "delusional" and calling for an abandonment of fossil fuel finance. In remarks delivered via video to the Austrian World Summit in Vienna, Antonio Guterres issued a sobering assessment of the planet's prospects. "The energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine has seen a perilous doubling down on fossil fuels by the major economies," he said on Tuesday. "The war has reinforced an abject lesson: our energy mix is broken," Guterres said. "Had we invested massively in renewable energy in the past, we should not be so dramatically at the mercy of the instability of fossil fuel markets now." Concerns related to both the energy transition and energy security have been thrown into sharp relief by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the price of both oil and gas continuing to surge in recent months. Russia is a significant supplier of both, and a number of major economies have formulated plans to reduce their reliance on its hydrocarbons in recent months. This desire to move away from Russian imports has led to some challenging situations. In May, the European Commission fleshed out details of a plan to ramp up the EU's renewable energy capacity and reduce its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. It simultaneously acknowledged that existing coal facilities may have to be used for "longer than initially expected." Coal has a substantial effect on the environment and the U.S. Energy Information Administration lists a range of emissions from its combustion. These include carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, particulates and nitrogen oxides. Elsewhere, Greenpeace has described coal as "the dirtiest, most polluting way of producing energy." In his speech to the summit in Vienna, the U.N.'s Guterres highlighted the "crippling prices" currently being experienced by businesses and households. "Our world faces climate chaos," he added. "New funding for fossil fuel exploration and production infrastructure is delusional," he said. "It will only further feed the scourge of war, pollution and climate catastrophe." The former prime minister of Portugal also called on "all financial actors to abandon fossil fuel finance" and invest in renewables instead. "The only true path to energy security, stable power prices, prosperity and a livable planet lies in abandoning polluting fossil fuels — especially coal — and accelerating the renewables-based energy transition," he said. Renewable energy sources, Guterres argued, were "the peace plan of the 21st century." He outlined a strategy that would, he claimed, "jumpstart the renewable energy transition." This included a tripling of investments in renewables, moving energy subsidies away from fossil fuels to renewables, and fast-tracking approvals for wind and solar projects. On the planet's future, Guterres delivered an urgent rallying call. "The window to prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis is closing fast," he said. "Our planet has already warmed by as much as 1.2 degrees." "To keep the 1.5-degree goal within reach," he said, "we must reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by mid-century. But current national commitments will lead to an increase by almost 14% this decade."

‘Aggressive’ policies needed to curb airline emissions and meet Paris goals: report – One highly touted way of reducing one’s carbon footprint is to cut down on fossil fuel use in everyday life. For many Americans, this can mean finding transportation alternatives to air travel. In 2018, commercial aviation accounted for 2.4 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, equalling approximately 918 million metric tons, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). For years governments have strived to meet ambitious targets laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement aimed at keeping global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and ideally reduce warming to 1.5 degrees celsius.A new report from the ICCT found that to achieve the 2 degree Celsius goal, airline emissions must peak by 2030. However, aggressive policies must be implemented immediately to keep temperatures from rising above 1.75 degrees Celsius by the end of the decade, authors warned. “Cumulative targets, rather than an absolute emissions goal for a given year, would provide greater certainty that aviation contributes fairly to the Paris Agreement,” they explained. In the report, researchers laid out 3 scenarios to tackle decarbonization in the aviation sector. The Action, Transformation and Breakthrough scenarios vary in degrees of ambition and are built around six parameters: traffic, aircraft technology, operations, zero-emission planes (ZEPs), sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and economic incentives. The roadmap laid out only includes international operations and compares each of the 3 scenarios to baseline emissions rates, or continuation of the status quo. For the Action scenario, researchers assessed government and industry efforts to deliver new technology capping emissions below levels recorded in 2019 by 2050, authors explained. But this would still use up the industry’s carbon budget allotted for a 2 degree warming by 2050. In comparison, the Transformation case shifts away from fossil fuels beginning in 2035 and halves 2050 levels compared with those recorded in 2005.

Biden administration proposes aircraft standard as climate ‘step,’ though it won’t cut emissions - The Biden administration is touting airline standards it is proposing to adopt as a climate win, even though its technical documents say that the rule isn’t expected to cut planet-warming emissions. The Federal Aviation Administration announced on Wednesday that it would propose to implement airline climate standards put forward by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Trump administration.In a statement on Wednesday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said that the proposal to adopt the airline standards is “an important step forward in reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions released by our nation’s airplanes.”However, the agency’s technical documents indicate that the rule won’t actually cut emissions. “The EPA estimated that there would not be reductions in fuel burn and CO2 emissions beyond the business as usual baseline,” said the rule’s regulatory impact analysis, citing a Trump-era finding. Asked about the apparent discrepancy between its statement and the technical documents, the Federal Aviation Administration argued that setting the standards in the first place is a win, since it expects to tighten the standards in the future. “Setting the first-ever standard for more efficient aircraft is an important step toward reducing CO2. We anticipate tightening that standard over time,” the agency said in a statement to The Hill.

Carbon tariffs are coming. Here's how the U.S. is preparing - The world’s first carbon border fee was always expected to roil nations that export their emissions through polluting goods. Now it could go further than originally proposed. The European Union brought carbon border adjustments into the spotlight last year. Since then, the proposal has gained momentum among legislators who want to expand its scope and ambition and raised discussion among other countries considering similar measures. Across the Atlantic, U.S. lawmakers and industry are keeping a close watch, wary of how it might impact American trade and manufacturing. “There’s a real prospect that Canada, E.U. and U.K. all basically bind together on a common carbon border adjustment. And if we haven’t joined up with them, we’re just sort of deliberate losers,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said in an interview after introducing a bill last week that would create a U.S. carbon border fee (Climatewire, June 8). Europe’s proposal would place a carbon price on imports that are made with more CO2 than if they were produced inside the 27-nation bloc. E.U. officials say it would help European companies that are investing money to lower their pollution, while also driving down emissions in countries that access the European market. Europe is moving aggressively forward. Its latest amendment to include more sectors under the tariff would affect $16.9 billion in exported U.S. goods. That’s a huge jump compared with the E.U.’s initial plan, which called for enforcing the carbon fee on $2.8 billion in American exports. By 2030 all sectors covered by the E.U.’s emissions trading system would be included. The newest plan also calls for lower tariffs on goods from countries that have an “explicit” carbon price, which the U.S. does not. Those measures — and the speed at which the E.U. is working to push through its proposal — are stirring concerns on both sides of the political aisle on Capitol Hill. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a rare Republican proponent of carbon border fees, said last month that he wanted to be in concert with Europe and not play catch-up. “I do worry,” he said at an event focused on climate and trade. “It may very possibly become very problematic for us if they would go too far ahead of us without a reconciled solution.”

Interior offers proposals for storing CO2 on public lands - There are currently no geologic storage projects on federal lands, but the Bureau of Land Management is evaluating two proposals. The Biden administration is streamlining a path toward carbon dioxide storage on public lands as part of its larger climate agenda. The Bureau of Land Management last week released a new instructional memorandum for geologic carbon sequestration projects that details parameters for transporting, injecting and storing the greenhouse gas in “pore space” underground for 30-year, renewable terms. “This policy is an important tool to help the BLM combat the climate crisis and supports the Biden-Harris Administration’s goal of reaching net zero emissions economy-wide by no later than 2050,” said BLM Director Tracy Stone-Manning. Carbon storage is one branch of the carbon capture, storage and utilization arena, whose proponents have sought avenues to capture emissions and either use them for products or inject them back into the subsurface. The memo released Friday ensures that the land management agency’s approach to carbon storage proposals is uniform across public lands and adheres to long-term monitoring and stewardship responsibilities, BLM said in a press release. ...

Mississippi and the emerging carbon storage industry - For decades, natural resources from an extinct volcano called the Jackson Dome, about 3,000 feet below Mississippi’s capital city, have given the state a role in a multistate oil extraction business. The operation, known as enhanced oil recovery or EOR, takes natural carbon dioxide from the Dome, sends it through a pipeline to oil fields in Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, and injects the CO2 into the ground to push oil out for production. Now, as the United States government tries to encourage emissions reduction from industrial sources, Mississippi lawmakers are hoping that the same pipeline, owned by Denbury Inc., will give the state a new role in the emerging carbon capture business. Carbon capture and storage, or CCS, is an expensive method of reducing greenhouse gas emissions where a business separates CO2 from the other gasses it produces, and then transports it to a storage site where it’s injected into the ground for permanent storage. While CCS has existed for years, it was too costly for companies to consider without any incentive. But in 2018, the federal government enacted a tax credit that greatly expanded incentives for emitters. Mississippi House Energy Chair Rep. Brent Powell, R-Brandon, explained that companies hoping to receive the tax credit could potentially move to the state and use its existing pipeline for storage. “What we’re hoping with this is that the landowners and the public can get some royalties for the storage, but we’d really like to see some industry come into the state that’s close to the pipeline,” said Powell, who specified electric and fertilizer plants as businesses he envisions offloading their carbon in Mississippi. Under the program, both surface and mineral rights owners would be compensated, Powell, who wrote the bill, said.

Landowners say CO2 pipeline builder is ‘harassing’ them to obtain easements -The Iowa Utilities Board should order a carbon pipeline company to stop contacting unwilling landowners about easement agreements, according to a conservation group’s “motion to protect landowners.”“The hundreds of comments and objections from landowners filed in the docket in this case confirm that landowners do not want to sign easements,” wrote the Sierra Club Iowa Chapter, which opposes Summit Carbon Solutions’ pipeline proposal.Summit is one of three companies to announce projects to transport liquefied carbon dioxide captured from ethanol plants and other agricultural facilities in Iowa to be pumped into the ground in other states. Summit is the only of the companies so far to formally request a hazardous liquid pipeline permit from Iowa regulators, which it did in January after holding a series of public meetings to inform potentially affected landowners about the project.The company is seeking voluntary permission from people along the proposed pipeline route to bury the pipeline in their ground in exchange for money, but it could use eminent domain to force the agreements with the approval of regulators.As of Friday, Summit has signed agreements for about 30 percent of the 680-mile route through Iowa, said Jesse Harris, director of public affairs for the company. That’s an increase from two months ago when Summit said it had agreements for about 25 percent of the route.

Navigator CO2 pipeline would drop Linn County from new proposed route -The Navigator Heartland Greenway carbon dioxide pipeline would no longer go through Linn County under a new route proposed by the company. The proposed 1,300-mile underground pipeline no longer would go through Linn, Benton, Cedar, Poweshiek and Clinton counties as proposed last year, but would include a new route in Bremer, Fayette, Buchanan and Delaware counties.“The only reason we’re cutting up through Linn and Clinton counties was to access the ADM facility,” said Elizabeth Burns-Thompson, vice president of government and public affairs, referring to the ADM ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids. “With them no longer part of our footprint, we no longer need to put them into that routing formula.”Navigator, a Texas company, in November proposed a pipeline to pass through 36 Iowa counties capturing CO2 at ethanol and fertilizer plants and transporting it to an underground site in southwest Illinois.The goal of Navigator’s proposed $3 billion project is to sequester up to 15 million metric tons of CO2, which would yield federal tax credits.Storing greenhouse gases in underground rock formations could help reduce the impacts of climate change — although there still are questions about how the relatively new technology would work.Two other companies also have proposed CO2 pipelines through Iowa.Summit Carbon Solutions is planning a 2,000-mile C02 pipeline through Iowa to North Dakota. The companyfiled in January for a permit with the Iowa Utilities Board, but a date for a public hearing has not yet been set.ADM and Wolf Carbon Solutions announced in January they have signed a letter of intent to build a 350-mile pipeline to transport liquefied CO2 from ethanol and cogeneration facilities in Cedar Rapids and Clinton to ADM’s already-operational sequestration site in Decatur, Illinois.

How SCOTUS’ upcoming climate ruling could defang Washington - The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling this month hobbling the Biden administration’s efforts to rein in greenhouse gases — but its impact could weaken Washington’s power to oversee wide swaths of American life well beyond climate change.The upcoming decision on the Environmental Protection Agency’s climate oversight offers the conservative justices an opportunity to undermine federal regulations on a host of issues, from drug pricing and financial regulations to net neutrality. Critics of the EPA have clamored for the high court to do just that, by declaring it unlawful for federal agencies to make “major” decisions without clear authorization from Congress. The Supreme Court and several Republican-appointed judges have invoked the same principle repeatedly during the past year to strike down a series of Biden administration responses to the coronavirus pandemic. Liberal legal scholars worry that the EPA case could yield an aggressive version of that thinking — unraveling much of the regulatory state as it has existed since the New Deal. That has implications for other major rules that President Joe Biden’s agencies are writing or defending in court, including wetlands protections, limits on car and truck pollution, insurance coverage for birth control under Obamacare, and even the Trump administration’s attempts to lower drug prices. “A narrow reading of what the federal agencies can do is going to literally handcuff the federal government from taking action to protect Americans’ health safety and the environment,” said Lawrence Gostin, a public health law professor at Georgetown University. The immediate stakes in the EPA case are big enough on their own: Two coal companies and a phalanx of Republican-led states want the court to limit the agency’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases from power plants, a major driver of global warming that threatens to worsen flooding, droughts, disease and other calamities in the coming decades. The case’s origins are messy and complicated, involving a sweeping Obama-era power plant climate rule and the Trump administration’s efforts to replace it with a much narrower regulation. The original rule had sought to push the electric power industry away from fossil fuels and toward greener sources such as wind and solar, wielding the EPA’s powers under a seldom-used section of the 1970 Clean Air Act. Under Biden, the EPA has embarked on writing its own version of the rule.

Car company CEOs push to lift electric vehicle tax credit limit --CEOs from General Motors, Ford Motor, Toyota Motor North America and Chrysler parent Stellantis are pressing Congress to raise the federal government’s limit on how many vehicles are eligible for a tax credit, according to a new letter.The Monday letter from leaders including Mary Barra of General Motors, Jim Farley of Ford, Carlos Tavares of Stellantis and Tetsuo Ogawa of Toyota North America asked that Congress lift the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit limit, saying zero-emission vehicles cost more to produce.The letter was first reported by Reuters.“We ask that the per-[automaker] cap be removed, with a sunset date set for a time when the EV market is more mature,” the CEOs wrote.The CEOs also promised to invest more than $170 billion collectively between now and 2030 to ramp up the sale and production of electric vehicles.

Why we need to recycle clean energy technologies -- In the past decade, solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries have boomed in production volume and plummeted in price. That’s enabled many countries to accelerate the transition to lower-carbon electricity. It’s also helped electric vehicles become more mainstream, an important step in the push to decarbonize transportation.To keep global warming from reaching catastrophic levels, production of these clean energy technologies will need to be scaled up by orders of magnitude in the coming decade. Making all of this happen should be the first priority of anyone who cares about the fate of life on earth. But there’s another pressing priority that can’t be overlooked: A lot of the equipment that will make this crucial transition possible — and the valuable materials used to make it — could end up in landfills. If it’s not reused and recycled, this waste could wreak havoc on ecosystems and communities. It could also mean missing out on an accessible source of critical raw materials like lithium and cobalt, which are costly to mine and often produced in environmentally and socially harmful ways.

What Bitcoin’s nosedive means for the environment - Bitcoin’s value has nosedived enough to curb the cryptocurrency’s enormous energy use —and associated greenhouse gas emissions — but only if prices stay low. The price of a single Bitcoin plummeted below $24,000 today, about half of what it was worth in March. While it’s been steadily losing value for months, the sudden tumble in value over the past 24 hours brings the price below a key threshold when it comes to Bitcoin’s impact on the environment.Since Bitcoin’s price peaked at around $69,000 in November, the network’s annual electricity consumption has been estimated to be between roughly 180 and 200 terawatt-hours (TWh). That’s about the same amount of electricity used by all the data centers in the world every year. Higher prices generally incentivize more mining since the reward is bigger. But prices don’t have to linger at that peak for Bitcoin to stay energy-hungry. As long as the price stays above $25,200, the Bitcoin network can sustain mining operations that use up about 180 TWh annually, according to research published last year by digital currency economist Alex de Vries.Prices below that $25.2K threshold could push miners to pause operations or mine less because they don’t want to risk spending more money on electricity than they earn from mining new tokens.“We’re getting to price levels where it is becoming more challenging [for miners],” de Vries says. “Where it’s not just limiting their options to grow further, but it’s actually going to be impacting their day-to-day operations.”It’s still too soon, though, to make concrete predictions on whether Bitcoin’s price plummet will ultimately be beneficial for the environment. Sky-high prices last year mean that miners likely have some savings to tide them over for a while. “If this is just a one-day drop, then nothing is going to change,” de Vries says. On the other hand, if prices fail to quickly rebound, miners could be facing some tough decisions ahead. A sustained price at around $24K could shrink the Bitcoin network’s global energy use to around 170 TWh annually, according to de Vries. That might sound like an incremental change, but it would add up to a significant drop in electricity use and related greenhouse gas emissions. If you compare it to the annualized energy use de Vries estimated Bitcoin was responsible for throughout much of 2022, it would be like shaving off the amount of electricity the country of Ireland uses in a year.

Auto and Light Truck Emission Rules are Still Problematic - “New Auto Emissions Rules Have a Loophole You Can Drive a Light-Duty Truck Through” President Biden and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have revised the existing greenhouse gas emissions standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Rolling back in four years the rollbacks the Trump administration implemented to change the standards set in place by the Obama administration is disruptive for automotive companies and the Tiers.Having done so, the rollback leaves companies scrambling to implement business plans to adjust to the back-and-forth regulations. Or maybe it is not so hard given the way emissions and mileage is calculated using “fleet” data.“These new ambitious emission standards are cost-effective and achieve significant public health and welfare benefits. The benefits of this rule exceed the costs by as much as $190 billion. Benefits include reduced impacts of climate change, improved public health from lower pollution, and cost savings for vehicle owners through improved fuel efficiency. American drivers will save between $210 billion and $420 billion through 2050 on fuel costs. On average over the lifetime of an individual MY 2026 vehicle, EPA estimates that the fuel savings will exceed the initial increase in vehicle costs by more than $1,000 for consumers.” But . . . It could be better. SUVs and pickup trucks treatment is different. Different since 1975 when fuel economy regulations were imposed. It may have once made sense to treat light-duty trucks differently than cars when they were actual working vehicles. The family 1 ton dually is going to the mall to do some shopping and the back cargo box will rust or corrode out before it gets dirty. As noted by Brad Plumer a decade ago (Washington Post) all of the reasoning changed;“Automakers quickly realized that they could build more SUVs and light trucks (as well as cars designed to meet light-truck standards, like the Subaru Outback) in order to sidestep the rules.”Higher “miles per gallon” cars averaged out lower miles per gallon light trucks to meet the EPA standard. The same holds true for CO² emissions. As shown in Table 1 for example.Light-duty trucks, the official name for SUVs and pickup trucks, are still treated differently, as they have been since 1975 when fuel economy regulations were first imposed. It may have once made sense to treat light-duty trucks differently than cars when they were actually working vehicles, but as Brad Plumer noted a decade ago in The Washington Post, “Automakers quickly realized that they could build more SUVs and light trucks (as well as cars designed to meet light-truck standards, like the Subaru Outback) in order to sidestep the rules.” Light Truck lower mileage per gallon and higher emissions numbers are lower only after averaging with automobile results for an acceptable fleet. This allows for more profitable light trucks and fewer automobiles. And the overall averages are acceptable. Maybe it is time to measure each vehicle?Trump cancelled these easy regs and Biden signed them back into law with improved goals. Still not enough.

EPA might deny Calif.'s clean truck waiver - EPA is considering partially denying a waiver to California under the Clean Air Act for two heavy-duty truck regulations, according to a person familiar with deliberations. “EPA is absolutely wavering on this,” the source said. The Clean Air Act allows California to set stricter emissions limits than those of the federal government, but the Golden State must still apply for a waiver from EPA. While EPA revoked California’s waiver under former President Donald Trump, a waiver denial under a Democratic administration would be unprecedented. The move would void the first few years of the truck regulations, creating major implications for California’s climate goals. It would also affect other states that have adopted California’s stricter emissions limits and zero-emission targets for heavy-duty trucks. One of the regulations that would be affected is California’s Heavy-Duty Omnibus rule, which aims to curb nitrogen oxide emissions from new diesel trucks by 90 percent starting in model year 2027. Oregon and Massachusetts have adopted California’s rule, and implementation is slated for as soon as 2025. The second regulation is the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, which requires a percentage of new trucks to be zero emission. Five other states have adopted the regulation: Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Maine, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland and Vermont have signaled their intention to adopt the rule as well. In response to a request for comment, an EPA spokesperson said the agency is holding a virtual public hearing later this month so the public can weigh in on California’s waiver requests. The public comment period will remain open until Aug. 2. The Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association recently sued California in federal court in an effort to stop its implementation of the Heavy-Duty Omnibus rule. The trade association claims the rule violated the Clean Air Act because it does not provide four years of lead time before implementation. EPA is weighing its own federal regulation to rein in toxic air pollution, which critics say does not go far enough to address the problem. While heavy-duty trucks make up a fraction of the country’s vehicle fleet, they spew a disproportionate amount of pollution and greenhouse gases.

Why an energy crisis and $5 gas aren’t spurring a green revolution - Big solar projects are facing major delays. Plans to adapt the grid to clean energy are confronting mountains of red tape. Affordable electric vehicles are in short supply. The United States is struggling to squeeze opportunity out of an energy crisis that should have been a catalyst for cleaner, domestically produced power. After decades of putting the climate on the back burner, the country is finding itself unprepared to seize the moment and at risk of emerging from the crisis even more reliant on fossil fuels. The problem is not entirely unique to the United States. Across the globe, climate leaders are warning that energy shortages prompted by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and high gas prices driven by inflation threaten to make the energy transition an afterthought — potentially thwarting efforts to keep global temperature rise under 1.5 degrees Celsius. “The energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine has seen a perilous doubling down on fossil fuels by the major economies,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said at a conference in Vienna on Tuesday, according to prepared remarks. He warned governments and investors that a failure to immediately and more aggressively embrace clean energy could be disastrous for the planet. U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry suggested that nations are falling prey to a flawed logic that fossil fuels will help them weather this period of instability, which has seen gas prices climb to a record-high national average of $5 per gallon. “You have this new revisionism suggesting that we have to be pumping oil like crazy, and we have to be moving into long-term [fossil fuel] infrastructure building,” he said at the Time100 Summit in New York this month. “We have to push back.” In the United States — the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China — the hurdles go beyond the supply chain crunch and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine. The country’s lofty goals for all carbon pollution to be gone from the electricity sector by 2035 and for half the cars sold to be electric by 2030 are jeopardized by years of neglect of the electrical grid, regulatory hurdles that have set projects back years, and failures by Congress and policymakers to plan ahead.The challenges are further compounded by plans to build costly new infrastructure for drilling and exporting natural gas that will make it even harder to transition away from the fossil fuel. “We are running into structural challenges preventing consumers and businesses from going cleaner, even at this time of high oil and gas prices,” said Paul Bledsoe, a climate adviser in the Clinton administration who now works on strategy at the Progressive Policy Institute, a center-left think tank. “It is a little alarming that even now, Congress is barely talking about clean energy.”

DOE: Here's where renewable costs are heading - Recent challenges facing wind and solar likely won’t sink their longer-term progress in the United States, as industries figure out ways to keep the cost of renewable power on a downward slope, according to a new peer-reviewed analysis from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Three Berkeley Lab researchers assessed how well the wind and solar industries have performed based on the historical prices of renewable electricity, and then used the findings to project how renewables’ levelized costs of energy would decrease through 2050. The team found that every time utility-scale wind capacity doubles in size, its levelized cost of electricity will decline by 15 percent. For big solar projects, that decline will be even steeper, at 24 percent, according to the analysis published in iScience journal in May. By 2035, solar could cost as little as $22 per megawatt-hour on average. That’s down from a 2020 average of $34 per MWh. It is also close to what the Energy Department is targeting for solar in 2030 — $20 per MWh, under a goal declared last year. Wind, for its part, could hit $24 per MWh, down from $32 per MWh two years ago, according to the analysis. The projection of plunging costs may seem to clash with the recent reality of wind and solar, whose economics have been battered by soaring commodity prices and trade policy pressures. The price of wind turbines rose 9 percent last year, for instance. And the cost of power purchase agreements rose across all of the U.S.’s electricity markets, according to industry analyses (Energywire, May 17). The solar industry has been particularly vocal about its endangered growth, which it linked to a Commerce Department probe into new import tariffs. Earlier this week, the solar industry said a “substantial amount” of solar had been lost because of the Commerce move, despite a tariff waiver by President Joe Biden to ease pressure on the industry (Energywire, June 8). In April, the president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, Abigail Ross Hopper, said the probe had plunged the industry into its “most serious crisis” in history (Energywire, April 6).The Berkeley Lab analysis — which was based on nationwide, plant-level data from 1982 through 2020 — did not factor in those recent problems. Yet the researchers wrote that they expected both renewable industries to adapt and return to slashing costs again, judging from their past track record.

Oil giant BP buys 40.5% stake in massive renewables and green hydrogen project -- Oil and gas supermajor BP has agreed to take a 40.5% equity stake in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, a vast project planned for Australia set to span an area of 6,500 square kilometers. In an announcement Wednesday, BP said it would become the operator of the development, adding that it had "the potential to be one of the largest renewables and green hydrogen hubs in the world." Located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, it's envisaged the project will develop up to 26 gigawatts of combined solar and wind generating capacity. The idea is that the hub would provide power to local customers. The hydrogen and ammonia would be used in Australia and exported internationally. "At full capacity, AREH is expected to be capable of producing around 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen or 9 million tonnes of green ammonia, per annum," BP said. The firm said it would assume operatorship of the project on July 1, adding that this was "subject to approvals." Shares of London-listed BP traded 1.2% lower on Wednesday afternoon. Hydrogen, which has a diverse range of applications and can be deployed in a wide range of industries, can be produced in a number of ways. One method includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in this process comes from a renewable source such as wind or solar then some call it "green" or "renewable" hydrogen. Today, the vast majority of hydrogen generation is based on fossil fuels. BP's announcement did not disclose the amount it was paying for its stake in the AREH project. The other shareholders are InterContinental Energy, CWP Global and Macquarie Capital and Macquarie's Green Investment Group. Their stakes are 26.4%, 17.8% and 15.3%, respectively. While Wednesday's news is a shot in the arm for the Asian Renewable Energy Hub, the project's development has not been without its challenges, including a June 2021 decision from authorities.. Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, BP's executive vice president of gas and low carbon energy, said the Asian Renewable Energy Hub was "set to be one of the largest renewable and green hydrogen energy hubs in the world and can make a significant contribution to Australia and the wider Asia Pacific region's energy transition." A major producer of oil and gas, BP says it's aiming to become a net-zero company by the year 2050 or before. It's one of many major firms to have made a net-zero pledge in recent years. While such commitments draw attention, actually achieving them is a huge task with significant financial and logistical hurdles. The devil is in the detail and goals can often be light on the latter.

‘These Are Extreme Conditions’: California Launches New Multimillion Dollar Efforts To Prevent Summer Rolling Blackouts – -- California is launching new efforts to help prevent rolling blackouts this summer. For the first time, California plans on creating a stockpile of emergency energy that can be switched on when power supplies run low. “There’s currently an estimated 1700-megawatt-capacity shortfall,” said Elliot Mainzer, CEO of California’s Independent System Operator. Rolling blackouts hit the state two years ago for the first time in nearly 20 years – and they almost happened again last year – when grid managers declared a stage-two electrical emergency. So what could put California on the brink of blackouts again this summer? “Regional heat waves, large wildfires, and severe drought conditions,” Mainzer said. The biggest concern is extreme heat events that stress the power grid in the evening hours when solar production drops but air conditioner use remains high. “We want to be prepared as a state,” said Ted Craddock with the California Department of Water Resources. That’s why the budget includes spending more than five billion dollars to help boost the state’s energy supplies. The plan calls for creating a new strategic electricity reliability reserve — an extra 5,000 megawatts of emergency power that can only be tapped when the grid runs dangerously low. “This is not the normal day. This is not the normal time of year. These are extreme conditions,” said Alice Busching Reynolds, president of the California Public Utilities Commission. The reserve will include natural gas-powered generators that can be quickly fired up. “These are really units that are indented to serve as emergency resources,”

FERC meeting: A rule for renewables, grid and 'complete bull' - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed sweeping new rules yesterday that could unlock large amounts of renewable energy and battery storage across the country and help address mounting concerns about grid reliability.The commission, in response to a bottleneck of clean energy projects seeking to come online, voted unanimously to update requirements for the generation interconnection process. That could enable new solar, wind and storage developments to move forward more quickly. FERC also issued two new rules aimed at protecting the U.S. power system from climate-change-fueled extreme weather events, on the heels of recent warnings of the heightened potential for blackouts in some regions this summer (Energywire, May 19).Taken together, the proposed new rules would modernize the power grid and better protect consumers from unfair costs as the electric resource mix changes, commissioners said in approving the draft rules at their monthly meeting yesterday. Clean energy advocates applauded the proposals, describing the interconnection reforms in particular as a critical step for helping states and the nation move toward a lower-carbon power grid. Trade associations representing electric utilities and transmission owners also expressed support for the interconnection reforms. Delays in connecting energy projects to the electric transmission system pose a major challenge in a number of states with ambitious clean energy goals, said Ben Norris, senior director of regulatory affairs at the Solar Energy Industries Association. “If you can’t connect clean energy to the grid, your goals are never capable of being achieved,” Norris said. There are currently over 8,100 active projects in interconnection “queues” around the country, representing over a thousand gigawatts of generation and more than 400 gigawatts of energy storage, said FERC Chair Richard Glick. Much of that is wind, solar and batteries. By comparison, the American Clean Power Association, which promotes renewables and battery storage, said in February that the U.S. surpassed 200 GW of operational utility-scale clean power capacity last year. It currently takes 3.7 years on average for projects to move through the queue “from start to finish,” and about 72 percent of projects never make it through, he said.

Can a DOE-backed project help save the grid? - As the nation braces for a summer of drought, heat waves and hurricanes, a group of U.S. utility planners and scientists has begun investigating how power grids should be strengthened for a future of extreme weather that they believe will only get worse. In the first of these studies, the Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory will adapt forecasts of global climate change to predict how future weather threats are likely to hit Commonwealth Edison’s network of generators, power lines and substations that serve greater Chicago and more than two-thirds of Illinois. It’s part of a three-year project led by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) looking at potential future weather impacts that marks a sharp shift in focus for U.S. utilities. Previously, the industry’s forecasts and planning for weather impacts have generally looked at a few years ahead based on data of past weather history, Arshad Mansoor, chief executive at EPRI, said in an interview. A much deeper look is essential now, he added. “We clearly are seeing the effects of the warming of the planet,” Mansoor said. “Our planning process does not take that into account.” If the project leads utilities and regulators to plan for probable future threats to power systems from climate-related extreme weather, it could add new urgency to the debate over the nation’s clean energy future and sharpen decisions on dividing billions of ratepayer dollars between decarbonizing or defending the grid. The results may have implications in the nation’s capital as well as at the state level, where regulators directly oversee electric utilities’ spending decisions. An unusual, massive derecho storm system in August 2020 that cut off power to some 1 million ComEd customers served notice of a new threat environment, said Ryan Burg, principal business analyst on the ComEd smart grid team. Record temperature swings and tornadoes in the region added evidence. “The fact that we had downed transmission — steel structures that were blown down — that was really extraordinary,” Burg said in an interview. “If this is the new normal, we have to start planning differently to be ready,” he added. ComEd’s parent, Exelon Corp., is one of more than a dozen utility companies participating in the research project, which ia called Climate READi and aims to shift grid planners’ focus from past weather events to the effects of unpredictable but increasingly probable future weather emergencies. The study’s goal is to seek a scientific consensus on the frequency, severity and characteristics of extreme weather that is likely to strike U.S. regions in decades ahead, Mansoor added.

Can Tesla's virtual power plant aid 'screwed-up' Texas grid? - As Texas faces questions about the reliability of its electricity grid and the state hits a demand record even before the peak days of summer, Tesla Inc. is pitching a novel solution: a virtual power plant made up of its customers’ home solar panels and batteries.The electric vehicle manufacturer recently asked the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s main grid operator, to adopt rules that would allow its home storage customers to participate in the market as soon as possible. If successful, Tesla would start operating virtual power plants (VPPs) before the end of this year, using its customers as a grid resource and, in turn, allowing customers to sell electricity back to the grid.But the rules sought by Tesla could do more than just provide a new source of reliable power in a time of need. They could “change, or augment, the paradigm of how we’ve viewed the electricity market,” said Joshua Rhodes, a research associate with the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas, Austin. Any VPP experiment is being closely watched as U.S. utilities and grid operators prepare for a system with fewer traditional power plants. Experts say Tesla’s proposal in Texas could be of particular interest given the unique market conditions and reliability challenges there. As electric cars and home storage units proliferate, there’s increasing attention on whether those distributed energy resources (DERs) could be used in consort with each other, acting as a large, dispersed source of power on the grid to meet peak demand. Tesla allowed customers in California to join a VPP model last summer and operates the model in areas of Australia, which has faced reliability issues and price spikes similar to those in Texas. Green Mountain Power in Vermont has also run a well-regarded VPP pilot. Tesla also recently held a pilot with 64 homes in North Texas that it says lays the groundwork for a permanent program that could see solar systems and batteries supplement or even replace fossil fuel plants deployed to meet peak demand.A report from Guidehouse Insights commissioned by distributed energy software firm AutoGrid found that ERCOT could replace its fleet of oil and natural gas peaker plants with distributed resources and VPPs, especially in the winter, when the natural gas infrastructure may be unreliable.With an estimated 32,924 megawatts of distributed energy resources expected to come online between 2020 and 2030, the report found that VPPs would offer a more resilient, flexible and cleaner alternative to peaker plants. That’s especially important in Texas, as the ERCOT grid can only draw limited amounts of power from other regions.“Tesla’s request represents an opportunity to take advantage of these resources that are already connected to the grid, but are siloed and only providing backup power to a single household,” Power said. “It’s a big step, and ERCOT is going to have to decide how they’re going to treat energy storage going forward. The adoption rate is only going to increase.”

Georgia Power retiring some coal units this year but backing off on battery storage — Georgia Power would retire two coal-burning units and two gas-fired turbines at two power plants by the beginning of August under an agreement filed with the state Public Service Commission (PSC) Monday. But the Atlanta-based utility also would put the brakes on a proposal to develop 1,000 megawatts of energy generating capacity through battery storage by 2030. Representatives of Georgia Power and the PSC’s Public Interest Advocacy Staff signed off on the 14-page agreement. If approved by the commission, it would form the framework for an updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which the utility submits to the PSC every three years indicating where it plans to get the power-generation sources necessary to meet the needs of its 2.7 million customers for the next 20 years. The original IRP update Georgia Power filed last January called for retiring nine coal-burning units, leaving only two of the four units at Plant Bowen near Cartersville. The utility has been phasing out coal for the last decade amid tighter government regulation of carbon emissions. Under the new agreement, Georgia Power would close two coal-burning units at Plant Wansley near Carrollton, one gas turbine at Wansley and a second gas unit at Plant Boulevard in Savannah by Aug. 1.

Leaked list: EPA eyes closure plans for 160 coal ash ponds -EPA is investigating closure plans for more than 160 unlined lagoons filled with sludge left over from burning coal that could possibly leach toxic pollutants into groundwater, according to a document obtained by E&E News.The EPA list — showing facilities from Arizona to New York — raises concerns about contamination of nearby waterways and drinking water supplies and provides a window into the agency’s ongoing crackdown on coal ash, one of the largest sources of water contamination in the country. Coal ash contains contaminants like mercury, cadmium and cancer-causing arsenic. EPA in January said such ponds or impoundments, as well as landfills, cannot close if coal ash is in contact with groundwater, a requirement that’s meant to protect nearby communities (Greenwire, Jan. 11). When asked about the spreadsheet, EPA said it developed the list to “initiate conversations” with states on the closure plans for the impoundments but stressed more work needs to be done to confirm the ponds are directly exposed to groundwater. “This is a list of surface impoundments that, based on currently available information, EPA believes either intend to close or are closing with waste in place and that could have ash in contact with groundwater,” said an EPA spokesperson. “These impoundments may potentially be closing in groundwater.” Environmental advocates argue the practice of leaving coal ash in groundwater upon closing a pond violates federal regulations and are urging EPA to step in to protect water resources — and the communities living near the coal facilities — before difficult-to-reverse closures are carried out. “Not only is it illegal but it’s dangerous, and it’s the responsibility of federal and state regulators to ensure these illegal closures don’t take place,” said Lisa Evans, an attorney with Earthjustice. Coal ash has for decades been a scourge on communities across the nation, drawing national attention in 2008 after a dike on a coal ash pond ruptured at the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Kingston, Tenn., power plant, sending more than a billion gallons of toxic sludge into nearby waterways and towns, triggering an avalanche of legal action and sickness. The material has historically been stored in massive ponds situated close to coal-fired power plants.

Federal Agency In Charge Of Billions For Mine Reclamation Lacks Director - Congress included billions of dollars for mine reclamation in last year’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. But the federal agency that oversees those funds still doesn’t have a director after 17 months. Congress put the Office Of Surface Mining, Reclamation and Enforcement in charge of $11.3 billion toward mine reclamation for use over the next 15 years, but according to environmental groups, the money isn’t getting to communities fast enough. And not just for mine cleanup, but also for economic development projects in coal communities. The groups also say the agency has not adequately enforced federal law on companies currently in business. In many cases, they are years behind in their cleanup obligations. Erin Savage, senior program director for Appalachian Voices, says the agency needs a Senate-confirmed director to manage the new funding and enforce federal law. “So without a director, OSMRE staff aren’t able to make the necessary adjustments to the program to allow it to work more effectively and efficiently,” she said. A director would need a confirmation hearing in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin chairs the panel.

Biden’s Been in Office for More Than 500 Days. He Still Hasn’t Appointed a Top Official to Oversee Coal Mine Reclamation - -- Environmentalists and community representatives from coal country say leadership is desperately needed as coal companies fail to meet their legal obligations for reclaiming strip-mined tracts. Environmentalists and representatives from coal mining communities across the nation on Tuesday pressed the Biden administration to finally appoint someone to head the Interior Department’s Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement, after more than 500 days in office. From Kentucky to Wyoming, the activists also delivered a petition calling for action signed by more than 2,200 residents of both active coal mining communities and those where mining has ceased but large tracts of strip-mined land have become environmental hazards and are in desperate need of reclamation. “In practice, we are seeing reclamation stalled out sometimes for as many as seven to 10 years,” said Erin Savage, the central Appalachian senior program manager from the nonprofit group Appalachian Voices. “Coal companies just aren’t doing what’s required under law,” she said, “and then on top of this, we’re starting to see bankruptcy and general company failures that are threatening the reclamation bonding programs that are meant to ensure reclamation.” Peter Morgan, a senior attorney with the Sierra Club who participated in a news conference after the petition was submitted, said the leadership vacuum comes at a time of crisis and opportunity for the coal industry and the communities it affects. As the nation has turned away from dirty sources of power, the demand for coal-fired electricity has declined, Morgan said, creating a wave of bankruptcies and leaving several companies “that seem to be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.” Without a strong regulatory presence by the agency responsible for overseeing mine reclamation, he said, the risk is that those companies could leave behind strip-mined landscapes that are a threat to public safety and the environment. The problem is illustrated in states like Kentucky, where regulators have had a hard time enforcing environmental and safety laws that are supposed to make sure strip mines are reclaimed in a timely manner, after the tops and sides of mountains have been blasted away to unearth seams of coal.

 Environmental group staffers say it's a 'nightmare' to go to work - Erica Prather was trying on her wedding dress when she learned she was about to get fired. It was a Friday in February, and Prather — a Tucson, Ariz.-based organizer with Defenders of Wildlife — had taken the day off to get her dress fitted in Kansas. Her mom snapped her picture as Prather looked down at the text from her union representative: She wouldn’t have her job when she got home. Later that day she got an email making it official, Prather said. She asked if she could go into her Tucson office to pick up her things, but she was told, “You can’t. We’ve already had the locks changed,” she told E&E News in a recent interview. Prather is one of 123 people who have quit or been fired from the conservation group since early 2019, when the organization had about 135 staffers, according to data compiled by the Defenders employee union that formed last year. That includes 30 people who have already left in 2022, the union said. Another four people plan to depart in the coming weeks, union representatives said. The environmental group — widely known for its work to protect wolves and other wild animals — also has a reputation as a terrible place to work. Staffers referred to it as a “nightmare” workplace and a “motorized revolving door.” Multiple current staffers said they’re looking for new jobs. And one current employee said, “I don’t know anyone who’s happy at Defenders.” E&E News spoke to 23 current and former Defenders employees for this story, ranging from senior managers to more junior staffers. Most of them were granted anonymity because they fear professional retaliation for speaking candidly about their concerns with Defenders’ workplace culture. They broadly described a workplace where turnover is rampant, questioning leadership isn’t tolerated, staff don’t feel like they’re paid fairly and employees worry they might be fired without notice. Nearly all of them said the organization’s management issues are affecting its ability to function. Current and former staff blame Defenders CEO Jamie Rappaport Clark for setting the tone and establishing a “culture of fear” within the organization. Upsetting Clark over even minor issues, they say, can result in getting fired. One former Defenders employee who worked in leadership had considered Clark a mentor and thought they had a close relationship. But “she will turn on a dime on you,” that person said. “You’ll go from having reviews that are spectacular to being out the door.”

Smaller reactors may still have a big nuclear waste problem - Figuring how to bury radioactive atoms isn’t exactly simple — it takes a blend of particle physics, careful geology, and engineering, and a high tolerance for reams of regulations. But the trickiest ingredient of all is time. Nuclear waste from today’s reactors will take thousands of years to become something safer to handle. So any solution can’t require too much stewardship. It’s gotta just work, and keep working for generations. By then, the utility that split those atoms won’t exist, nor will the company that designed the reactor. Who knows? Maybe the United States won’t exist either.Right now, the United States doesn’t have such a plan. That’s been the case since 2011, when regulators facing stiff local opposition pulled the plug on a decades-long effort to store waste underneath Yucca Mountain in Nevada, stranding $44 billion in federal funds meant for the job. Since then, the nuclear industry has done a good job of storing its waste on a temporary basis, which is part of the reason Congress has shown little interest in working out a solution for future generations. Long-term thinking isn’t their strong suit. “It’s been a complete institutional failure in the US,” Krall says.But there’s a new type of nuclear on the block: the small modular reactor or SMR. For a long time, the U.S. nuclear industry has been stagnating, in large part because of the tremendous costs of building massive new plants. SMRs, by contrast, are small enough to be built in a factory and then hauled elsewhere to produce power. Advocates hope this will make them more cost-effective than the big reactors of today, offering an affordable, always-on complement to less-predictable renewables like wind and solar. According to some, they should also produce less radioactive waste than their predecessors. A Department of Energy-sponsored report estimated in 2014 that the U.S. nuclear industry would produce 94 percent less fuel waste if big, old reactors were replaced with new smaller ones.Krall was skeptical about that last part. “SMRs are generally being marketed as a solution — that maybe you don’t need a geological repository for them,” she says. So as a postdoc at Stanford, she and two prominent nuclear experts started digging through the patents, research papers, and license applications of two dozen proposed reactor designs, none of which have been built so far. Thousands of pages of redacted documents, a few public records requests, and a vast appendix full of calculations later, Krall, who is now a scientist with Sweden’s nuclear waste company, got an answer: By many measures, the SMR designs produce not less, but potentially much more waste: more than five times the spent fuel per unit of power, and as much as 35 times for other forms of waste. The research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences earlier this week.Startups seeking licenses to build SMR designs have disputed the findings and say they’re prepared for whatever waste is generated while the U.S. sorts out permanent disposal. “Five times a small number is still a really small number,” says John Kotek, who leads policy and public affairs at the Nuclear Energy Institute, the industry’s trade association.But the authors say the “back-end” of the fuel cycle, which includes waste and decommissioning, should be a bigger factor in what they consider to be the precarious economics of the new reactors. “The point of this paper is to prompt a discussion,” says Allison Macfarlane, a former chair of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and a coauthor of the paper. “We can’t get to how much it is going to cost until we understand what we’re dealing with.”

Did AEP outages target poor city neighborhoods? Here's what data shows - Columbus civic leaders continued to seek answers Thursday about how AEP decided which neighborhoods to cut power to this week and whether appropriate steps were taken to notify customers in advance of the outages. The NAACP Columbus chapter again questioned AEP Thursday, calling for additional answers as to how the utility determines areas that will be without service, and whether AEP notified residents, governments and social service agencies prior to the shutdown. The questions followed statements from NAACP leaders Wednesday raising concerns that areas in Columbus affected by the outage included many low-income and minority neighborhoods. “The NAACP’s concern is that these outages will add to the growing list of health, environmental and crime rates in these communities,” the NAACP said in a statement Thursday. “We also need to know what this community can expect moving forward in these dog days of summer.”City of Columbus officials also contacted AEP about the outages and the direct impact on those poorer neighborhoods, city spokeswoman Melanie Crabill said Thursday. “We asked AEP the same question because we were being asked by residents,” Crabill said. “AEP assured us that they based load shedding on circuit locations, not neighborhoods.”Ohio Democratic lawmakers from the Columbus area also sought answers from AEP Thursday, writing in a letter that the utility has an obligation to provide customers access to services and to communicate planned outages "to limit the human and financial costs shouldered by families, cities and people with medical needs."The letter included a list of questions for AEP and was signed by Democratic state representatives from Franklin County... "We find it troubling that AEP has no issue with customer notifications when bills are due, but when customers are faced with historic heat, limited resources and great needs, there seems to be limited or no communication about planned outages that impact the health, safety and welfare of customers," the lawmakers wrote.

 Riverbend Energy Sells Non-Operated Wells in Ohio Utica, Elsewhere - Riverbend Energy Group invests in oil and gas wells. The company mainly invests in non-operated oil and gas wells, although it also has some operated wells in its portfolio (and investments in renewables too). In May we told you that Riverbend was, according to sources speaking with Reuters, working with an unnamed investment bank to shop three portfolios of non-operated oil and gas assets for $2 billion–with one of the packages containing Utica Shale assets (see Riverbend Energy Shops Non-Operated Wells in Ohio Utica, Elsewhere). Reuters was right, as usual. The properties produce about 47,000 boe/d from 11,000 wells, the company said. A spokesperson would not comment on the name of the buyer. The transaction is expected to close during the third quarter.

EIA DPR: MU July NatGas Set to Increase More than Any Other Play ---Once again the number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration overestimated natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica in the agency’s monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). This is a pattern. Perhaps making such revisions is inevitable, but we find it disconcerting. Last month the EIA predicted total production in the Marcellus/Utica region (which they call Appalachia in the report) would be 35.67 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). In the monthly DPR issued yesterday, EIA revised the June number down to 35.16 Bcf/d. Not a huge difference. It translates to 515 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) less in production–roughly 1/2 Bcf/d.

Pa. DEP splits up long-stalled oil and gas air pollution rule - Pennsylvania environmental regulators are moving forward with just half of a long overdue rule designed to limit air pollution from oil and gas well sites after objections from legislators and advocates for the state’s conventional oil and gas industry caused the proposed rule to be split in two. The state Environmental Quality Board voted Tuesday to advance a rule that only covers air pollution from unconventional, or shale gas, well sites and related equipment. The revised rule loses roughly 80% of the pollution reduction benefit that had been expected when the rule covered both the state’s shale and traditional well site infrastructure. Officials from the state Department of Environmental Protection said they are working to finish a second rule to address air pollution sources in the conventional oil and gas industry as soon as possible, likely by September. The agency is racing to salvage the rules to avoid sanctions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that could threaten billions of dollars in federal highway funds. Sanctions that will require major new air pollution sources throughout Pennsylvania to offset double their emissions are set to take effect on Thursday, but the deadline to avoid federal highway sanctions is in mid-December, DEP officials said. DEP has currently identified four facilities that will be subject to the offset sanctions on June 16. Both types of sanctions are automatic under the federal Clean Air Act and the U.S. EPA does not have discretion over whether and when to impose them, an EPA spokesman said. Pennsylvania is more than three years past the deadline when it was required to implement the oil and gas air pollution controls, which are based on federal guidelines. They are designed to cut releases of a smog-forming group of chemicals called volatile organic compounds from the state’s existing oil and gas well sites while cutting emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, as a side benefit. DEP contends it was not required to split the rule in two, but decided to do so after a Republican-led state House committee objected to the combined rule, which triggered a legislative review process that could stretch past the sanction deadline and into next year. Trade groups for the state’s conventional oil and gas industry also sued to block the rule from applying to their well sites, arguing that a 2016 state law requires conventional oil and gas wells to be regulated independently from Marcellus and Utica shale wells.

 Major export terminal pitched in Chester sets up clash between Biden's LNG, environmental justice goals - Plans for a massive liquefied natural gas facility and export terminal in Chester along the Delaware River have quietly been shopped around to current and former elected officials and their representatives from Chester City Hall to the governor’s office in Harrisburg.WHYY News obtained details of the plan, as well as the company’s lobbying efforts, through Right-to-Know requests.Penn America Energy LLC, the New York-based company behind the estimated $4 billion-to-$8 billion project, wants to build on a 100-acre brownfield site along the Chester waterfront with the goal of exporting 7 million metric tonnes of LNG each year to countries in South America, Europe, and Asia, according to the documents.For comparison, six current LNG export terminals in the U.S. shipped 7.6 million metric tonnes of LNG overseas in March, according to the Energy Information Administration. Franc James, Penn America’s CEO, told WHYY News the project has been in the works for five years, and is “sourcing the cleanest environmentally responsible natural gas possible.”“As an environmentalist, I want to set a new standard for being the most environmentally responsible and sustainable project ever developed,” Franc said in an email. “Natural gas from the Marcellus is the cleanest natural gas in the world now and working to be even cleaner. That greatly appeals to us and in support of a new standard worldwide.”In response to questions about the relative cleanliness of Marcellus Shale, Penn America LNG provided a chart by the Clean Air Task Force, which says due to regulations and efforts by producers, natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin emits the least amount of methane worldwide.While James did not provide details or a timeline for the project, a February 2021 report by Penn LNG, obtained by WHYY News, describes the project. James said the site has not yet been secured, but others briefed on the plan say the company is eyeing the former Ford factory. James told WHYY News that anticipating a shipping date is premature. But a project overview in the report says the engineering firm Bechtel and Air Products would build a gasification plant that could freeze one billion cubic feet of Marcellus and Utica shale gas a day with a target to start shipping overseas in 2027 or 2028.

Louisiana is bracing for an LNG boom. The projects will emit millions of tons of greenhouse gases. - A report outlining the environmental impact of the United States’ roaring liquefied natural gas export industry says 25 impending LNG projects could spew out up to 90 million tons of greenhouse gases annually — more than would be generated in a year by all of the cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles in Florida. The majority of those 90 million tons — which will be added to the sector's existing 12.3 million tons — will originate in Louisiana. In all, 12 of the 25 projects are set to call Louisiana home, joining three of the nation’s seven operational export terminals. The projects include both new terminals and expansions of existing facilities. If they approach their permitted totals, the 12 Louisiana projects could produce a combined 56.9 million tons of greenhouse gases each year, according to a report from the Environmental Integrity Project, an environmental law nonprofit that tracks permit enforcement. That would account for about 63% of the 90 million new tons. The 90 million total is equivalent to 18 million passenger vehicles running for a year, the report said. For comparison, Florida has nearly 17 million registered motor vehicles, according to federal data. Louisiana has about 3.9 million. However, the Louisiana emissions figures are incomplete. G2 Net Zero LNG, a proposed Cameron Parish facility, has not revealed its projected emissions totals because it has not filed for a federal air permit. There’s one other caveat: the LNG facilities don’t always reach their limits. Sabine Pass LNG in Cameron Parish hit 42% of its allowed emissions in 2020. But it led the way for all U.S. export terminals with 4.5 million tons of greenhouse gases. Second was Cameron LNG in Hackberry with 3.7 million tons. Calcasieu Pass, which began production in January, is permitted for about 4 million tons per year. Of the four U.S. terminals under construction, Driftwood LNG in Calcasieu Parish and Plaquemines LNG in Plaquemines Parish have the two highest permitted thresholds at 9.5 million and 8.1 million tons, respectively. Louisiana’s 10 other LNG projects are either awaiting environmental permits or have made little progress since being announced..

U.S. natgas drops 3% as Freeport LNG outage cuts demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a one-week low on Monday as the shutdown of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant last week cut U.S. demand for gas, leaving more of the fuel available to refill low stockpiles. That gas price decline came even though power demand in Texas hit an all-time high on Sunday and will likely break that record on Monday as economic growth boosts usage and homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heatwave. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe burst, according to energy research firm IIR Energy and others. Freeport LNG, the plant owner, has said the plant would be down for at least three weeks of maintenance. Analysts projected that the Freeport shutdown would reduce the gas available to the rest of the world, especially in Europe where most U.S. LNG has gone in recent months as countries look to wean themselves off Russian supplies after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. But leaving more gas in the United States should give utilities a chance to rebuild extremely low stockpiles more quickly. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, consumes about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, so a three-week shutdown would result in about 42 billion cubic feet (bcf) more gas being available to the U.S. market. U.S. storage is currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 24.1 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $8.609 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since June 3. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to keep raising interest rates in coming months to reduce inflation, open interest in NYMEX futures fell to its lowest since September 2016 for a second day in a row on Friday as investors cut back on risky assets like commodities. U.S. gas futures were up about 126% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $25 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia.

Freeport LNG Out for Months, Stranding 2 Bcf/d and Rattling Global Markets - Representatives with the liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Texas that suffered an explosion last week, Freeport LNG, said early Tuesday that the company does not expect the export facility to be fully repaired for months. The company is now targeting late 2022 for a return to full service instead of the initial guidance of three weeks. Given that the explosion and fire that knocked the plant offline were contained to a small area, partial operations could begin in 90 days, said Freeport LNG Development LP. The announcement sent U.S. natural gas futures tumbling. The July New York Mercantile Exchange gas futures contract plunged by $1.42 to close at $7.189/MMBtu on Tuesday. It hit an intraday low of $7.008. The European benchmark Title Transfer Facility prompt contract surged more than $4 to finish Tuesday near $30. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] An explosion last Wednesday at the terminal left market participants contemplating potential demand destruction of 2.0 Bcf/d through at least June. The much longer repair period could free up gas for domestic use and ease a feared supply crunch that had sent U.S. futures to a 14-year high this spring. Meanwhile, competition for LNG cargoes is poised to heat up between Asia and Europe given the potential lack of supplies through year’s end. “At this time, completion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022,” Freeport stated. A “resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days, once the safety and security of doing so can be assured, and all regulatory clearances are obtained.” The cause of the accident remains unclear and an investigation is underway. The company said Tuesday the incident occurred in pipe racks that support the transfer of LNG from the facility’s LNG storage tank area to the dock facilities. None of the liquefaction trains, LNG storage tanks, marine facilities or LNG process areas were impacted, the company said. Preliminary observations suggest the incident resulted from the overpressure and rupture of a segment of an LNG transfer line, “leading to the rapid flashing of LNG and the release and ignition of the natural gas vapor cloud,” Freeport said. The vapor cloud was contained within the facility’s fence line, the company said. The explosion lasted about 10 seconds. The fire and smoke that followed the blast were from materials that burned where it occurred, including pipeline insulation and cabling. The fire was extinguished in 40 minutes. No injuries were reported.

Natural gas plummets as Freeport delays facility restart following explosion -- Natural gas prices plunged on Tuesday, after Freeport LNG said its facility that had a fire last week likely won't be back up and running soon. "[C]ompletion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022," the company said Tuesday in a statement. The facility, located in Quintana Island, Texas, had an explosion last Wednesday."Given the relatively contained area of the facility physically impacted by the incident, a resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days," Freeport LNG said.U.S. natural gas fell about 16% to $7.22 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)."The U.S. natural gas market will now be temporarily oversupplied as 2 bcf/d or a little over 2% of demand for U.S. natural gas has been abruptly eliminated," ."U.S. natural gas supply will likely remain at current levels as producers won't reduce production by 2 bcf/d. The result is an oversupplied U.S. natural gas market," he added.Freeport's operation is roughly 17% of the U.S.' LNG processing capacity.Despite Tuesday's drop, natural gas prices are still up 93% since the start of the year. Demand has rebounded as worldwide economies emerge from the pandemic, while supply has remained constrained.Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended a market that was already tight. As Europe looks to move away from Russian energy, record amounts of U.S. LNG are now heading to the continent.Surging prices are adding to inflationary pressures across the economy. Drivers are already grappling with record prices at the pump with the national average for a gallon of gas topping $5 over the weekend, and now utility bills are also set to rise.Natural gas prices surged above $9 per MMBtu in May, hitting the highest level since August 2008.After the explosion at Freeport's facility last week, the company initially said the plant would be shut for several weeks."The incident occurred in pipe racks that support the transfer of LNG from the facility's LNG storage tank area to the terminal's dock facilities," the company said Tuesday. "None of the liquefaction trains, LNG storage tanks, dock facilities, or LNG process areas were impacted," the company added.

U.S. natgas plunges 17% on long Texas Freeport LNG outage - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 17% to a five-week low on Tuesday on expectations an extended outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas would leave more gas to refill low U.S. stockpiles. In addition, news that the Freeport restart could take 90 days rather than the initial three-week estimate, following an explosion last week, exacerbated concerns over gas shortages in Europe. Gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands soared by 15%. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe burst, according to energy research firm IIR Energy and others. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, consumes about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, so a 90-day shutdown would result in about 180 billion cubic feet (bcf) more gas being available to the U.S. market. "Freeport's outages will place a ceiling on demand, providing additional power behind expected storage injections in the near term," U.S. storage is currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019. Front-month gas futures for July delivery fell $1.42, or 17%, to settle at $7.189 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 9. That was the biggest daily percentage drop since a 26% fall in late January in what has already been an extremely volatile year for gas trade. The price drop came despite record power demand in Texas, forecasts for more gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, a reduction in daily gas output and low wind power. Power demand in Texas failed to hit a new all-time high on Monday due to less hot weather, but will likely break peak use records on Tuesday and later this week as homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heatwave. Low wind power forces generators, including those in Texas - the state with the most wind power - to burn more gas to keep the lights on. U.S. gas futures were still up about 96% this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell from 12.5 bcfd in May to 11.8 bcfd so far in June, with the Freeport outage, according to data from Refinitiv. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.6 bcfd of gas into LNG.

U.S. Natural Gas Rises Over 4.5% Amid Pre-Summer Heat Wave - After plunging to a 5-week-low on Tuesday, natural gas prices in the U.S. have ramped up again, gaining 4% on Wednesday on excessive temperatures expected to last through next week. By 3:05 p.m CT, Henry Hub natural gas prices were at $7.514, up 4.52%, up over 109% year-to-date.July Nymex natural gas (NGN22) on Wednesday closed up +0.231 (+3.21%).Demand for natural gas to power air-conditioners is expected to rise significantly as one-third of the United States is witnessing extreme heat warnings. Over the next few days, heat indexes are expected to break records, putting additional pressure on electricity providers. Heat waves are also spreading across Europe, where natural gas prices surged more than 20% on Wednesday. Gas prices in Europe continue to spike not only on temperature but on Russia’s move this week to curb gas supplies via Nord Stream. On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would cut gas flows to Germany via Nord Stream by 40%, citing equipment repairs, prompting German officials to accuse Moscow of further weaponizing natural gas. On Wednesday, Gazprom said it had reduced the flow of gas to Italy, as well. In the United States, Tuesday saw natural gas prices plunge on news of a 90-day shutdown of the Freeport, Texas, LNG export terminal following an explosion last week. ″[C]ompletion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022,” the company said Tuesday in a statement. Freeport’s delayed restart takes approximately 2% of demand off the market, suggesting potential oversupply of natural gas. As of Wednesday, potential oversupply, ahead of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) release of natural gas inventory data on Thursday, was being counterbalanced by a heat wave that suggests an uptick in demand.

Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back After Third-Largest Drop on Record - After slumping $1.420 in Tuesday’s session in the wake of news that the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project on Quintana Island, TX, Freeport LNG, won’t see a return to full service until late this year, the July Nymex gas futures contract on Wednesday regained 23.1 cents day/day and closed at $7.420. August rose 22.6 cents to $7.406. Cash prices recovered from a slump of their own. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 27.5 cents to $7.540 on Wednesday following a $1.370 loss a day earlier. The Freeport outage, caused by an explosion and brief fire last week, translates into a loss of about 2.0 Bcf/d of LNG feed gas for at least three months, not three weeks, as initially telegraphed by the company. What’s more, with full service delayed until near the end of 2022, export volumes at the facility will likely remain below capacity at a time when global demand supports maximum volumes. As such, feed gas that would have found its way to Freeport for export likely will now be used domestically, including for injections into storage. Other American LNG facilities are maxed already and cannot absorb more. That means low supplies in the United States relative to overall demand – as the summer nears – are bound to get a boost, helping to balance the market. Prices had skyrocketed to 14-year highs this spring on supply worries. The Freeport news and expected impact on storage eased those concerns and dragged prices down Tuesday. Prompt month prices plunged as low as $7.008 intraday. The Schork Report’s analysts noted that, from peak to trough, Tuesday’s drop marked the seventh-largest decline on record. The settlement represented the third-largest day/day decline in Nymex records dating to 1990, they said. “The second-largest exporter of U.S. LNG just went offline on the cusp of the peak cooling season,” the analysts said. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) printed a 97 Bcf injection into Lower 48 storage during the week ended June 3. The build lifted stocks to 1,999 Bcf, but supplies in storage remained 14.5% below the five-year average. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] With an extended outage for the Freeport terminal, deficits are likely to shrink and the odds of summer natural gas prices surpassing the $10 mark have “materially lessened,”

US natural gas storage levels increase by 92 Bcf, slimming deficit: EIA -US natural gas working stocks rose by 92 Bcf during the week ended June 10, reducing the deficit to the five-year average and slowing the momentum of a two-day recovery for gas futures. Storage inventories rose to 2.095 Tcf for the week ended June 10, the US Energy Information Administration reported June 16. The build was slightly higher than an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts calling for an 89 Bcf net injection. The weekly injection was more than triple the 28 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021, and 13 Bcf more than the five-year average build of 79 Bcf, according to EIA data. The above-average build reduced storage's deficit to the five-year average to 323 Bcf, or 13.4% from 336 Bcf, or 14.4%, the previous week. The NYMEX Henry Hub July contract's settlement came in far lower than that was observed in early morning trading, suggesting that the above-average build into storage helped stymie a fledgling futures rally. In June 16 trading, before the weekly gas storage report was published at 10:30 am ET, the July contract was on a path toward retracing its steps back toward $8/MMBtu. The Henry Hub prompt traded around $7.87/MMBtu in the minutes before the report was released, up more than 40 cents from the June 15 settlement of $7.42/MMBtu. Within an hour of the report's launch, the contract had dropped to $7.70/MMBtu and fell further as the trading session went on. The NYMEX Henry Hub July contract settled at $7.464/MMBtu June 16, up 4.40 cents from the prior day, preliminary settlement data from CME Group shows. Looking ahead to the week in progress, a forecast by S&P Global's supply and demand model calls for a much smaller draw of 52 Bcf for the week ending June 17, which would erase this week's gains against the deficit. While the Freeport LNG outage is expected to loosen supply-demand balances in the South Central region, heightened cooling demand from record-high temperatures in the Midwest, Southeast, and Texas has soaked up some of the excess supply, leaving less gas available to flow into storage in the near term. S&P Global data shows that gas-fired power demand in Texas and the Southeast has come in 1.5 Bcf/d, or 9%, higher month to date than year-ago levels. Similarly, gas demand in the Midwest and Midcontinent has come in nearly 800 MMcf/d, or 6%, higher so far this June compared with last.

U.S. natgas drops 7% to 7-wk low on demand decline, oil price plunge - -- U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 7% to a seven-week low on Friday on forecasts for lower demand this week and next and expectations the extended shutdown of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas would allow utilities to quickly rebuild low U.S. gas stockpiles. Traders also noted gas futures were following a collapse in oil prices due to concerns interest rate rises could cause a recession that reduces demand for energy. Prices declined despite record power demand in Texas, forecasts for hotter weather and much higher U.S. gas demand in two weeks, and small declines in U.S. gas output in recent days. The Freeport shutdown on June 8 reduced the amount of U.S. gas available to the rest of the world, especially in Europe where most U.S. LNG has gone as countries there wean themselves off Russian energy after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Freeport, which said the plant will remain out of service for about 90 days, declared force majeure on LNG shipments until September, according to a Bloomberg report. Gas prices at the European benchmark Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands were up about 4% on Friday after Russia reduced pipeline exports to Europe. Analysts said leaving more gas in the United States should give utilities a chance to rebuild extremely low stockpiles more quickly. The Freeport facility, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, consumes about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, so a 90-day shutdown would make about 180 billion cubic feet (bcf) more gas available to the U.S. market. Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 52.0 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $6.944 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 28. For the week, the contract was down about 22% after rising 4% last week. That was the biggest weekly decline since early December when it dropped 24%. With the Federal Reserve expected to keep raising interest rates, open interest in NYMEX futures fell on Thursday to the lowest level since September 2016 for a sixth day in a row as investors continued to cut back on risky assets. U.S. gas futures are still up about 88% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $38 per mmBtu in Europe and $34 in Asia. Russia cut pipeline exports to Europe to 3.8 bcfd on Thursday from 4.7 bcfd on Wednesday on the three mainlines into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.6 bcfd in June 2021.

LNG plant had history of safety issues before explosion - The explosion and fire in Texas last week that shut down about one-fifth of the country’s liquefied natural gas export capacity wasn’t the first time flames have bedeviled the Freeport LNG facility.When an electrical fire broke out in an enclosure at the terminal in 2020, the company’s call for help was routed to Houston, more than 60 miles away.After that delay, local firefighters responded. But they couldn’t find their way into the facility. Federal regulators would later say there weren’t enough Freeport personnel helping direct them. The mix-up is part of a record of safety lapses at Freeport, a massive facility that handles a product that currently is crucial to meeting the world’s energy needs. The terminal has had a string of incidents in recent years, and federal regulators have hit it with more enforcement actions than any of its competitors along the Gulf of Mexico.“The question is, what’s going on here? Is it something systemic?” said Richard Kuprewicz, a chemical engineer who worked for years in the oil and gas industry and now consults on safety. “Is there a recurring theme coming up?”Freeport LNG announced yesterday that the facility would be shut down for about three months (Greenwire, June 14). That’s a dramatic increase from the estimate, on the day of the explosion, that it would be at least three weeks. Considering the facility’s size and the current gas crunch, the development has been wreaking havoc on gas prices.But the three-month estimate is for only partial operations. The company’s statement said it did not expect a return to full operations “until late 2022.” The shutdown deals a blow to President Joe Biden’s efforts to help Europe wean itself quickly from Russian gas by expanding LNG exports from the United States. The U.S. oil and gas industry has also promoted its role in supplying gas to Europe before and after the invasion. But a significant portion of that supply is now unavailable.Before last week’s blast, federal inspectors had conducted six “failure investigations” of the operation since the beginning of 2015, according to federal records reviewed by E&E News. One opened just last month when, according to a National Response Center report, a spill of 100 gallons of triethylene glycol sent an employee to the hospital. Freeport has been hit with 11 enforcement actions from the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) since early 2015, agency records show, more than any other Gulf Coast LNG facility.Problems at the facility have affected shipments and customers, as well. Last year, industry media reported that persistent concerns about the quality of gas going into the plant and loading issues caused Freeport to reduce the number of cargoes available for export.The explosion last week was the fourth incident reported to PHMSA since mid-2019 at the plant, which began operations in 2008 as an import terminal. The site began exporting gas in 2019.A safety expert called the frequency of incidents “alarming,” and possibly a sign of poor planning.“LNG is a beast when it comes to hazard and particularly fire and explosion,” said Faisal Khan, director of the Mary Kay O’Connor Process Safety Center at Texas A&M University. “It can easily escalate.”

Several thousands of gallons of oily material in Flint River (AP) — Several thousands of gallons of an oil-based, dark black material with a petroleum smell spilled into the Flint River in Flint, authorities said Wednesday. The spilled appeared to be 5 miles (8 kilometers) miles long, Jill Greenberg, a spokeswoman for Michigan's environmental agency, told MLive.com. “Booms are being deployed and investigators are working to determine a source,” the agency said on Twitter. Officials said drinking water was not threatened. Flint used the river for drinking water in 2014-15 before lead contamination caused the city to return to a regional water supplier. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is sending two on-scene coordinators to Flint in response, an EPA spokeswoman said. Agencies from the city of Flint, Genesee County and the state of Michigan were among those that responded initially to what the state has said was a spill of several thousands of gallons of an oil-based, dark black material with a petroleum smell. They’ve said the spilled material, located within a 10-mile stretch of the river, looks similar to motor oil. Representatives of the state agency took samples from the affected area of the river Wednesday, but Greenberg said results were not immediately available. “We’re still in emergency response mode ...,” said Jill Greenberg, an EGLE spokeswoman. “We’ve identified a potential source, but we are still investigating.”

Biden ready to use "emergency authorities" to boost fuel output, lower gas prices --President Biden will warn CEOs of the nation's largest oil companies on Wednesday that he's considering invoking emergency powers to boost U.S. refinery output, according to a letter obtained by Axios. Biden's direct engagement with the oil giants is part of an ongoing White House effort to tame fuel prices despite limited options — and cast oil companies as responsible for consumers' higher bills.The letter, which calls on the companies to boost output, signals how gasoline and diesel prices have become both an economic and political shock reaching the highest levels of the administration. Biden tells seven big refiners and fuel companies that he's "prepared to use all reasonable and appropriate Federal Government tools and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity and output in the near term.""I understand that many factors contributed to the business decisions to reduce refinery capacity, which occurred before I took office," he writes. "But at a time of war, refinery profit margins well above normal being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable."Adding an olive branch, the letter — sent to the heads of ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP America, Shell USA, Phillips 66, Marathon and Valero — calls for them to offer "concrete, near-term solutions."Biden says he wants ideas to address inventory, price and refinery capacity issues in the coming months, as well as transportation measures to bring fuel to market. "The crunch that families are facing deserves immediate action," Biden writes. : In seeking help from the oil industry, Biden is walking a political tightrope, eager to lower the cost at the pump without alienating his base, which backs policies to combat climate change.: Biden said Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will convene an "emergency meeting on this topic." Biden's letter focuses on the drop in U.S. refinery capacity in recent years. It has dropped by about 1 million barrels per day compared to pre-COVID levels, according to the industry and federal data.

The Loss Of US Refining Capacity Is Helping Drive Record Diesel Prices, And It Won’t Improve Anytime Soon - Analysts and casual observers of oil markets rely on a very simple number to determine the strength of refined petroleum products relative to a barrel of crude: the 3:2:1. There are far more complex models out there, but the beauty of the 3:2:1 is that anybody can calculate it. Take the futures price of Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and multiply it by three. Then take the price of reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) gasoline, an intermediate product used to produce finished gasoline, multiply the cents-per-gallon price by 42 to get dollars per barrel, and then do the same with one barrel of ultra-low-sulfur diesel. Add the RBOB and diesel prices together, subtract the crude price, and you have your 3:2:1 number. In 2019, the last full pre-pandemic year, the 3:2:1 for WTI averaged $18.63 a barrel, based on data from the daily settlements of the CME Group Inc. commodity exchange. It regularly dipped below $10 a barrel during the pandemic-gripped market of 2020. At the start of this year, it stood at around $20 a barrel. The 3:2:1 for WTI in recent days has hovered just under $60 a barrel, and traders are shaking their heads because they readily admit they have never seen anything like it. Crude is up, but products such as diesel are up a lot further. Oil markets are starting to accept that while the cutoff of an unknown quantity of Russian crude from the markets is clearly a factor in the surge in petroleum prices, markets also are getting hit with upward pressure from several years of refinery closures, particularly in the U.S. Combine that with pandemic-induced slowdowns in new refineries being built in other parts of the world and you have a squeeze on refining products that is clearly visible in that eye-popping 3:2:1 margin. More complex models of refining yields also are at levels not seen for years, if ever. And it’s coming as high prices do not yet appear to be having a significant impact on demand. Product supplied, a proxy for U.S. demand in data supplied by the Energy Information Administration, was about 900,000 barrels per day less than the first week of June in 2019, but it’s also the second-highest level ever. And GasBuddy, a service that provides gasoline retail price information and demand, tweeted Sunday that weekend gasoline demand continued to show no signs of a downturn. Because oil products can be put on ships and moved thousands of miles, all consumers are impacted by the global refining market. A U.S. consumer does benefit from a barrel of new refining capacity built in Southeast Asia. And as the most recent BP Statistical Review shows, the world has been adding refining capacity at a steady clip, rising to 101.9 million barrels per day in 2020 from 93.8 million barrels per day in 2010. It was notable that the increase from 2019 to 2020 was small, just 200,000 barrels per day. There were other years during that span in which the annual jump was more than 1 million barrels a day. (The data goes through 2020.) But as Charles Kemp, a vice president at the refinery consulting firm of Baker & O’Brien, said, not all refinery additions are equal. Looking over the loss of refining capacity in the U.S. in recent years, Kemp told FreightWaves in a phone interview that “a factor that has not been accounted for is that yes, we lost some refining capacity. We could have lost some simple refining capacity without a significant fuel shortage. But we also lost complex conversion capacity.”There are refineries that simply cook crude in a crude distillation unit — the most basic building block in a refinery — with a yield of products that are mostly considered intermediate products which require further processing is necessary to make a product such as gasoline. These refineries are often known in the industry as “teapots.” And then there are giant refining complexes with a tremendous amount of what is known as conversion units. They have units such as cat crackers and cokers that can squeeze a high percentage of desired products such as gasoline or diesel out of those units.

Why Biden's refinery push may run into trouble - President Joe Biden raised the stakes in his campaign against high fuel prices yesterday, calling on U.S. refiners to cut their profit margins and help consumers who are struggling with energy costs to pay their bills.The White House also suggested the president could use “all reasonable and appropriate federal government tools” to increase refining capacity in order to get record gasoline prices down, including the Defense Production Act to order refiners to bring some of their shuttered plants back online. But analysts and oil-price watchers said there’s little the Biden administration — or the industry itself — can do to cut into the high profit margins at refiners. The lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine are likely to last into next year, they say. But reopening refineries will be a heavy lift. It would cost hundreds of millions of dollars for each site, and it would take months, John Auers, a refinery consultant at Turner, Mason & Co., said in an interview.Yesterday, trade groups said the administration’s focus on climate change and environmental issues is one of the obstacles keeping the industry from investing in refineries. As a candidate, Biden promised to “end fossil fuel” and he’s taken a series of steps to cut pollution from automobiles and control greenhouse-gas emissions, the heads of the American Petroleum Institute and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacters said in a joint letter to the White House.“Refiners do not make multi-billion-dollar investments based on short-term returns,” the trade group chiefs, Mike Somers of API and Chet Thompson of AFPM, wrote. “They look at long-term supply and demand fundamentals and make investments as appropriate.”Some refineries were also closed because of disasters. An explosion destroyed part of the Philadelphia Energy Systems plant in 2019, and its owner filed for bankruptcy a few months later. Last year, Phillips 66 closed its Alliance Refinery outside New Orleans after it flooded during Hurricane Laura. During the pandemic, companies concentrated on the most profitable operations and closed their older, often lower-tech, refineries (Energywire, May 5, 2020).Even with the pandemic waning, there’s little incentive for companies to reopen their plants. The industry still expects gasoline and diesel use to be flat for the next few years, Auers said. And the Biden administration has been signaling since 2020 that it wants to move the U.S. away from its reliance on fossil fuels.“It certainly doesn’t fit in — their whole policy goal is to move away from oil,” Auers said. Likewise, the structure of the refining business means there’s no economic incentive for companies to voluntarily cut their profit margin. “They have lucked into these high margins, they didn’t create the high margins,” Auers said.In an emailed statement yesterday, Exxon said it intends to increase its refining capacity 250,000 barrels a day. “We have been in regular contact with the administration to update the President and his staff on how ExxonMobil has been investing more than any other company to develop U.S. oil and gas supplies,” the company said.Other projects are also likely to come online in 2023, Auers said, including at Valero’s Port Arthur refinery and a privately owned refinery in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.Still, high oil prices and high margins are likely to continue into 2023, according to a report yesterday from the International Energy Agency.Oil production is expected to rise next year, but demand will rise even faster, which will keep prices high, the Paris-based organization said in its Oil Market Report. More than 1 million barrels of refining capacity is expected to come online this year, followed by 1.6 million barrels in 2023.“Nevertheless, product markets are expected to remain tight, with a particular concern for diesel and kerosene supplies,” IEA said.

Premature Closure Of Houston Refinery Could Worsen The Fuel Crunch - U.S. refining capacity could take a hit from an earlier than planned closure of a major refinery in Houston, which could worsen the refining and fuel crunch in the country.LyondellBasell—which announced in April that it would cease operation of its Houston Refinery by the end of 2023—could close the facility prematurely if a major equipment failure affects processing units, two sources with knowledge of the chemicals giant’s operations told Reuters on Tuesday.LyondellBasell’s 268,000-bpd Houston refinery has the ability to transform very heavy high-sulfur crude oil into clean fuels, including reformulated gasoline and low-sulfur diesel. Other products include heating oil, jet fuel, olefins feedstocks, aromatics, lubricants, and petroleum coke.The firm, however, said earlier this year that “we have determined that exiting the refining business by the end of next year is the best strategic and financial path forward for the Company.”LyondellBasell did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters.If the Houston refinery closes much earlier than the end of 2023, it could exacerbate the already strained refining capacity in the United States.Some 1 million bpd of refinery capacity in America has been shut permanently since the start of the pandemic, as refiners have opted to either close money-losing facilities or convert some of them into biofuel production sites.In the United States, operable refinery capacity was at just over 18 million bpd in 2021, the lowest since 2015, per EIA data. U.S. refineries cannot catch up with demand, which has rebounded from the COVID lows and is still robust despite the record-high gasoline and diesel prices in America. Inventories of fuel are at multi-year lows as the Russian invasion of Ukraine upended oil trade flows and constrained supply.

Biden Tells USA Oil Refiners Record Profits Not Acceptable - President Joe Biden told US oil refiners that unprecedented profit margins are unacceptable and called for “immediate action” to improve capacity as the soaring price of gasoline feeds record inflation and fears of a recession. “At a time of war, refinery profit margins well above normal being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable,” Biden said in a letter sent Wednesday to top oil companies. Biden said his administration was prepared to take any “reasonable and appropriate” steps that would help companies increase output in the near term, and said he’s ordering Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm to hold an emergency meeting on the subject in the coming days. The president added that the federal government will open talks with the National Petroleum Council -- an advisory committee representing the industry -- and called on companies to provide the Energy Department with an explanation of why they have cut capacity and what could be done to address gas prices that now average more than $5 per gallon nationwide. But restarting shuttered refineries isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. More than 1 million barrels a day of US oil refining capacity -- or about 5% of the total -- has been shut since the start of the pandemic. Some aging facilities were closed permanently as the virus crushed fuel demand. Others are being modified to produce renewable diesel instead of petroleum-based fuels amid a web of federal policies spurring a shift to green energy; those conversions may be too far along to reverse course.

ExxonMobil Made More Money Than God This Year -ExxonMobil made more money than God this year. That’s what U.S. President Joe Biden said on June 10 in White House briefing room remarks on inflation and actions taken to lower prices and address supply chain challenges. “We’re going to make sure that everybody knows Exxon’s profits,” Biden said in the statement. “Exxon made more money than God this year,” he added. “One thing I want to say about the oil companies, they talk about how we have, they have 9,000 permits to drill. They’re not drilling. Why aren’t they drilling? Because they make more money not producing more oil,” Biden said in the statement. “The price goes up, number one. And, number two, the reason they’re not drilling is they’re buying back their own stock - which should be taxed, quite frankly - buying back their own stock and making no new investments. So, I - I always thought Republicans are for investment. Exxon, start investing, start paying your taxes,” Biden went on to say. When Rigzone contacted ExxonMobil for comment on Biden’s statement, a company spokesperson sent through the below response via email. “We have been in regular contact with the administration, informing them of our planned investments to increase production and expand refining capacity in the United States”. “We increased production in the Permian Basin by 70 percent, or 190,000 barrels per day, between 2019 and 2021. We expect to increase production from the Permian by another 25 percent this year. We’re spending 50 percent more in capital expenditures in the Permian in 2022 vs 2021 and are increasing refining capacity to process U.S. light crude by about 250,000 barrels per day – which is the equivalent of adding a new medium sized refinery”. “We reported losses of more than $20 billion in 2020, and we borrowed more than $30 billion in 2019 and 2020 to support our investments in production around the world. In 2021, total taxes on the company’s income statement were $40.6 billion, an increase of $17.8 billion from 2020”.

House Democrats probe PR industry's role in advertising for Big Oil - The Washington Post -Two House Democrats are pressing public relations and advertising firms on their work to improve the environmental images of fossil fuel companies, despite their role in the climate crisis. House Natural Resources Committee Chair Raúl M. Grijalva (Ariz.) and Rep. Katie Porter (Calif.), who chairs the panel's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, are asking five PR firms to turn over information about their campaigns for oil and gas clients on the topic of climate change, according to letters shared exclusively with The Climate 202. Advertisement “For decades, fossil fuel companies and associations have engaged in public relations campaigns to downplay the threat of climate change and the central role fossil fuels have played in causing it,” the lawmakers wrote. “These influence campaigns were intended to prevent the country from taking critical steps to address the climate crisis.” The letters were addressed to five PR and advertising firms — Blue Advertising, DDC Public Affairs, FTI Consulting, Singer Associates and Story Partners — as well as the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association. The lawmakers requested all documents and communications concerning the firms' work for the fossil fuel industry from Jan. 1, 2013, to the present. They also asked for invoices that show the payments from each oil, gas or coal company. The recipients of the letters have two weeks — until June 27 — to provide this information. If they fail to meet this deadline, Grijalva could wield his subpoena power to compel them to do so.

ExxonMobil hits back after Biden threatens energy producers -ExxonMobil fired back at President Biden after he threatened them with "emergency powers" if they don’t boost supply to temper surging gas prices. In a statement released Wednesday from the company, ExxonMobil said it has been in regular contact with the administration providing updates on how it has been investing "more than any other company to develop U.S. oil and gas supplies." ExxonMobil said had invested $118 billion on new oil and gas supplies over the past five years, compared to a net income of $55 billion – resulting in an almost 50% increase in its U.S. production of oil during that period. ExxonMobil said it has been investing through the economic downturn to increase refining capacity to process U.S. light crude by some 250,000 barrels per day, which equates to a new medium-sized refinery. "We kept investing even during the pandemic, when we lost more than $20 billion and had to borrow more than $30 billion to maintain investment to increase capacity to be ready for post-pandemic demand," the company said. The statement ended imploring the Biden administration to – rather threaten emergency powers – "promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development." Biden has been facing a flood of criticism lately for a lack of executive action aimed at curbing inflation. On higher gas prices, the president has pivoted between blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine and oil company’s profit motives.

 US oil refiners lay out their realities ahead of DOE meeting | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Two prominent oil industry groups in a June 16 letter addressed to President Joe Biden outlined the realities faced by US refiners in response to his June 14 letter requesting they meet with the Department of Energy to find a way to increase gasoline and diesel output to bring down the price of gasoline and diesel for US consumers. The letter from the American Fuel & Petroleum Manufacturers and American Petroleum Institute said they and their member companies told the president they "appreciated the opportunity to make contact with your administration -- as recently as this week -- both to share data and analysis on what is happening in global energy markets and to provide concrete and practicable solutions for addressing today's high price environment."The AFPM and API explained that refined product prices are determined on the global market, with the price of crude accounting for about 60% of the price of gasoline. Crude prices are soaring as demand for refined product returns, with Dated Brent averaging $112.23/b so far in Q2 2022, up from the $29.41/b in Q2 2021, Platts assessments show. US refinery utilization is running near record rates, the groups pointed out, at 94% of capacity, which is expected to rise in coming days. In the US, Platts Analytics forecast refinery outages will decline to about 2 million b/d as refiners return from planned work. This includes the ramp-up of Calcasieu's 135,000 b/d Lake Charles, Louisiana, plant, closed in 2020 in the midst of the coronavirus demand drop, which made it uneconomic to run. However, the meat of the letter revolves around policy-driven decisions put into place that discourage expansion of the oil and gas industries, keeping refiners from making long-term business decisions based on the president's stated campaign promise "to end fossil fuel." "EPA just set Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes at the highest levels ever, which by its nature is designed to reduce demand for refined petroleum products and incentivizes gasoline and diesel exports," the letter to the president said. Refiners have responded to annual increases in renewable fuel blending volumes by converting plants and units to make renewable fuels. This accounts for almost half of the estimated 1 million b/d of shut US refining capacity. However, other policies on federal and state levels are also keeping refiners from making long-term business decisions, the letter said. This includes the recently finalized EPA light-duty vehicle standard "that incentivizes at least 17 percent electric vehicle sales by 2026" from the current 5%, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, new fuel economy standards that will reduce gasoline consumption by more than 200 billion gallons through 2050, and making the cost of capital more expensive through new rules from the Security and Exchange Commission. Despite these roadblocks, US refiners have continued to invest in and increase capacity. ExxonMobil is adding 250,000 b/d of refining capacity at its Beaumont, Texas, plant to process increased production from its Permian holdings, while Valero is adding a coker at its Port Arthur, Texas, plant, which will increase capacity there by 50,000 b/d.

AG urges Corps of Engineers to not redundantly review pipeline projects - Attorney General Derek Schmidt has urged the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to not redundantly review pipeline projects and hamper efforts to fight record-setting gas prices.Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt says on Tuesday, June 14, that he opposed the latest effort by President Joe Biden’s Administration to add requirements for the nation’s energy producers. He said the regulatory action would further hamper efforts to maintain reliable sources of energy and fight record-setting fuel prices.AG Schmidt said he joined 20 other state attorneys general to send a letter to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to object to its proposed review of Nationwide Permit 12. He said the permit is one of several regulatory actions which govern the activities related to pipeline and other energy infrastructure projects - including construction and routine maintenance.Schmidt said the Corps is required to review NWP 12 every 5 years and seek public comment. However, he said the current review is the second in two years and he argues that the review is redundant and would harm the domestic energy industry.“This so-called review won’t address the real concerns facing our citizens – prominently, historically high energy prices. It will instead inject unnecessary, duplicative, and inequitable red tape into an already bureaucratically laden process,” the attorneys general wrote. “Far from alleviating our current crisis, the Corps appears to be poised to take measures that will undermine NWP 12′s purpose and further jeopardize the Nation’s energy security and prosperity.”The AG argued that changing the rules would undermine projects already underway across the nation. He said Congress specifically gave the Corps the authority to review NWP 12 every 5 years under the framework of the Clean Water Act.Schmidt noted the last review was held in 2021, however, the Corps can reconsider NWPs at the request of outside parties.

 Environmental law groups sue Biden administration to block 3,500 oil and gas drilling permits - Three environmental law groups have sued the Biden administration in an attempt to block more than 3,500 permit applications from energy companies to drill for oil and gas on public lands. The environmental groups filed the lawsuit in the District Court of Washington, DC, against the Bureau of Land Management, saying the permit approvals in Wyoming and New Mexico violated several federal laws, including the Endangered Species Act. Climate advocates have been keen to hold President Joe Biden to his campaign promise to ban all new oil and gas drilling on public land -- a promise he has been unable to deliver on. But that promise has also recently become a political punching bag for Republicans as the price of gas has soared to over $5 per gallon amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Citing the severity of the climate crisis, the Center for Biological Diversity, the Western Environmental Law Center and the WildEarth Guardians are trying to stop oil and gas companies drilling new wells on federal lands. "The federal government's oil and gas program accounts for almost one-tenth of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the nation," said Kyle Tisdel, climate and energy program director with Western Environmental Law Center, in a statement. "The Bureau of Land Management has admitted that continued oil and gas exploitation is a significant cause of the climate crisis, yet the agency continues to recklessly issue thousands of new oil and gas drilling permits."The groups said in a statement that drilling and burning the fossil fuel from these permits will "damage ecosystems across the United States, and harm more than 150 climate-imperiled species, including Hawaiian songbirds, polar bears and coral reefs." "Fossil fuels are driving the extinction crisis, and the Bureau of Land Management is making things worse by failing to protect these imperiled species," said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a statement.

Wyoming wants to export its natural gas. The West Coast won't let it. After a very expensive winter, home heating costs are beginning to fall. Household use of natural gas fluctuates with the weather, and as furnaces go dormant, utility bills ease. But that seasonal decline is masking a breakneck rise in price. The spot price of U.S. benchmark Henry Hub has doubled since March, according to Insider. It surpassed $9 per thousand cubic feet last week — triple its spot price at this time last year — for the first time in almost 14 years. Some natural gas companies in the Intermountain West say the region’s lack of access to overseas markets is partly to blame. “If we were able to export the natural gas that’s trapped in Wyoming, Colorado and Utah to Asia, that would lead the price around the world,” said H. Howard Cooper, president of Colorado-based Three Crown Petroleum. The problem for Wyoming and its landlocked neighbors is that they can’t export that gas on their own. Their only access to international markets comes through coastal states. But the country’s existing capacity is concentrated along the distant shores of the East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, all too far away to be of much use. As temperatures rise and air conditioners kick on, people consume more electricity — much of it generated from natural gas. And the supply of natural gas isn’t keeping pace with that demand.Europe’s search for non-Russian sources of natural gas has also exacerbated the imbalance. The U.S. — forecast to be the world’s top LNG exporter this year — maxed out its export capacity as European prices soared. Its LNG shipments went up 18% in the first four months of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration, and aren’t expected to slow anytime soon.

Puget Sound Energy launches RNG program with landfill gas production - In Washington, Shoreline Area News reports that Puget Sound Energy (PSE) launched a voluntary Renewable Natural Gas program, a key part of its proposed pathway to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2045. Through RNG, renters, homeowners and businesses can replace a portion of their conventional natural gas usage with carbon neutral renewable natural gas. PSE’s RNG program will offer utility customers the option to replace an equal amount of their conventional natural gas use with renewable natural gas. For every block of RNG a customer purchases, they see a credit on their bill for an equivalent amount of conventional natural gas not used. Already, more than 1,200 PSE customers have enrolled in RNG since its launch in December of 2021. Supply for RNG comes exclusively from a long-term contract with Klickitat Public Utility District. Methane from a Washington landfill is captured, processed into pipeline quality gas and transported to PSE’s natural gas system.

Freeport LNG Texas terminal outage hurts Europe, may help African exporters (Reuters) - Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers - especially in Europe - and some U.S. shale producers have been reeling since a June 8 blast shut Freeport LNG's massive export terminal in Texas. Reverberations also are being felt in Africa, where LNG producers could get a boost from the months-long shutdown to repair the Texas terminal, analysts said, noting that European buyers moving away from Russian gas and pipeline operators have few supply alternatives. The Freeport facility accounts for roughly 20% of U.S. LNG processing capacity, drawing 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from U.S. shale producers. A full restart of the facility will not happen until late this year, the company said this week. The outage sent U.S. gas NGc1futures down 18% from the price a day before the fire, while European gas TRNLTTFMc1prices have surged more than 60%, with an additional boost from less gas on Russian pipelines. Some 75% of Freeport LNG's feed gas, or 1.47 bcfd, relies on Boardwalk Pipeline's Gulf South Pipeline, with a unit of BP PLC BP.Lsupplying roughly half of that capacity, according to consultancy East Daley Capital. JERA Energy America and Osaka Gas Trading also are shippers on that line, at about 0.355 bcfd and 0.220 bcfd, respectively. The day after Freeport suffered the explosion, pipeline operator Gulf South said its flows to the facility were zero. "Shippers will not be able to easily shift volumes to alternate delivery points without amending their contracts with the pipeline in which case the pipeline can raise rates or require a separate contract," said Alex Gafford, a capital markets analyst with East Daley Capital. BP is working "though the closure's impact on our LNG operations," a spokesperson said on Thursday. Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, JERA Energy America, Osaka Gas Trading, and Uniper, also a shipper on Gulf South, did not respond to requests for comment. French energy company TotalEnergies SE TTEF.PA, which supplies about 0.322 bcfd of gas to the facility through the Texas Eastern Gas Transmission line, declined to comment. African LNG exporters could benefit from the outage. Nigerian and Algerian plants have "been running at levels far below nameplate capacity," said Sindre Knutsson, Rystad's vice president of gas and LNG. "Africa is in a good position to feed more gas to Europe in the medium to long-term," he said, noting Nigeria could produce more LNG as gas production resumes following declines from COVID-19 related losses. Other U.S. exporters, such as Cheniere Energy Inc LNG.A and Sempra LNG, are increasing their efficiency and producing more fuel that can help offset some of Freeport's losses.

 Enbridge to raise natural gas prices by as much as 23 per cent July 1 -- Enbridge is set to raise natural gas prices in Ontario — and the province’s oversight body is warning there could be more increases to come. A decision from the Ontario Energy Board released Thursday approved Enbridge Gas Inc.’s June application for an increase, after the utility company outlined North American gas shortages.The approval, which comes into effect July 1, 2022, represents an 18.5 per cent to 23.2 per cent increase or about $240 to $250 for the typical residential consumer, depending on their area, including Union Gas rate zones.The estimated impacts are based on an assumed 2,200 cubic metres to 2,400 cubic metres of consumption. Homeowners’ final bills will depend on their individual use.The OEB, which sets rates quarterly, approved a way to reduce costs to residents in this period, as proposed by Enbridge — the fourth consecutive mitigation strategy the company has applied for, the decision said. Without it, bills would have been affected by about $270 to $315, the board said.Beyond this summer, when residential gas consumption is at its lowest, the OEB said the International Energy Agency is “warning of continued significant upward pressure on prices beyond this quarter,” saying that North American production of natural gas has not been able to keep up with demand.

Oil Spill Case Postponed in Provincial Court - The case involving the largest oil spill in the province’s history was called—and promptly postponed again in provincial court Wednesday morning. It’s been 3-and-a-half years since the spill, which dumped 250,000 litres of oil into the ocean about 350 kilometres east of St. John’s. It happened on November 16th, 2018 due to a leak in a flowline connected to the SeaRose FPSO. At the time, crews were trying to restart production that had been halted because of rough weather the day before. Husky Energy, which has since been acquired by Cenovus, faces six counts in total, including alleged breaches of the Atlantic Accord, fisheries regulations and Migratory Birds Convention Act. In court Wednesday morning, lawyers said they are continuing discussions toward a resolution, and a possible guilty plea in the case. That’s now expected to happen in late August. Four months before the SeaRose incident, Husky was fined $600,000 in connection with a spill involving a pipeline leak in western Saskatchewan.

BP Sells Oil Sands to Cenovus - BP Plc sold out of Canada’s oil sands, divesting its stake in the Sunrise project to Cenovus Energy Inc. while acquiring offshore exploration from the same company in the east of the country. The oil-sands disposal aligns with BP’s plans to divest polluting projects as investors demand greater efforts to tackle climate change. Companies such as Shell Plc and ConocoPhillips have also offloaded such ventures, which have a particularly high carbon footprint because of the energy required to extract bitumen from deposits underground. Cenovus agreed to buy BP’s 50% interest in Sunrise for C$600 million ($467 million) in cash and a contingent payment of as much as C$600 million which expires after two years. The Calgary-based company will also hand over its 35% interest in the Bay du Nord oil project off Newfoundland and Labrador. The offshore oil project, operated by Equinor ASA, won Canadian government approval earlier this year despite environmental opposition. The $12 billion development is estimated to have recoverable reserves of around 300 million barrels of oil. BP plans to reduce its total oil and gas production 40% by 2030 and says it will focus on “resilient hydrocarbons” -- those which have a lower cost and carbon footprint. The London-based major has also said it will no longer explore for fossil fuels in new countries.

BP Oil Sands Exit May Not Be the Last - BP Plc has become the latest international oil company to exit Canada’s high carbon-emitting oil sands -- but it almost certainly won’t be the last. The decision by the London-based energy company to sell its non-operating 50% interest in the Sunrise project to Cenovus Energy Inc. is just the latest in a recent string of divestments from Alberta’s oil sands, one of the largest crude reserves in the world. Companies including Shell Plc, ConocoPhillips, Equinor ASA and Devon Energy Corp. have divested big stakes in the mines and well sites of Northern Alberta to local companies in recent years, increasingly concentrating control of the oil sands in the hands of Canadian producers such as Cenovus, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc. And more deals are seen as likely as local producers sit on cash hoards from $100-plus oil prices. Chevron Corp.’s 20% stake in the Athabasca oil sands mine could be the next asset to be sold, said Matt Murphy, analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co LLC. It’s not a “core asset” to the company and could become the next sale, probably to majority owner Canadian Natural, he said. While Athabasca generates “pretty good cash flow,” it’s not strategic, Michael Wirth, chief executive officer, said last year. TotalEnergies SE is another big-name company in the region with assets that might make sense to offload. The Paris-based company has been divesting holdings in the oil sands for several years and pledged to no longer invest in the region. It recorded a $7 billion impairment of its Canadian oil sands portfolio in 2020 as part of a wider review but continues to hold a 50% stake with ConocoPhillips in the Surmont site as well as a minority stake in Suncor’s Fort Hills mine. Finding a local buyer for Surmont could be challenging because it’s a non-operating position, Murphy said. Emails to Chevron, Total and Canadian Natural weren’t immediately returned. The recent exodus from oil sands comes as Big Oil pledges to curtail and even zero out carbon emissions amid pressure from investors to tackle climate change. Crude from the oil sands must be dug from mines or forced from wells injected with steam, making them some of the highest carbon-emitting grades of oil in the world and something of a pariah for investors seeking greener alternatives. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund and large pension fund Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec have pledged to sell oil sands holdings.

UK Drivers Pay More Than $128 to Fill Up Car With Diesel - for the first time, piling further pressure on Britons hit by a cost-of-living crisis. The average price of diesel rose to a record 190.92 pence a liter on Sunday, while gasoline reached a high of 185.04 pence, according to data from motoring group RAC. “The speed and scale of the increase is staggering,” RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said in a statement. “Incredibly, the government is now raking around £46 in tax from every full tank.” Transport fuel prices have risen to all-time highs in Britain, the US and other countries around the world amid soaring energy costs. The price of oil has surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while a slew of sanctions on Russian energy have also exacerbated supply concerns. Filling up a 55-liter family car with diesel costs £105.01, according to RAC data. The cost is £101.77 for gasoline.

Why Is The UK Sending Gasoline To America As Prices Explode? The UK shipped 1.85 million barrels of gasoline and gasoline blending components to the United States in May, the highest monthly exports of those products since December 2021, Bloomberg News' Julian Lee reports, citing data from shipping analytics company Vortexa. On the face of it, the flow of gasoline from the UK to the U.S. looks counterintuitive to market forces as UK gasoline prices are $3 a gallon higher than the gasoline prices in America.But gasoline in the UK is taxed much more than the levies on gasoline in the U.S., that's why British drivers pay much higher prices at the pump, as do most other motorists across Europe. If taxes are left out of the equation, it actually makes sense for UK exports of gasoline and blending components to flow to the United States, Bloomberg's Lee notes.Regardless of how much various taxes weigh on the final price consumers pay and the specifics of the different markets, gasoline prices in the UK and the U.S., and in many other countries, are breaking records these days. That's because crude oil prices are at $120 per barrel, global refining capacity has shrunk since COVID, and the Russian war in Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions on Russia are upending trade flows of crude and refined products. Gasoline prices in the UK—where total taxes on gasoline account for an average 46% of the retail price, per the UK's motoring organization RAC—saw this week the highest daily price jump in 17 years. The average UK gasoline price this week was the equivalent of more than $8.60 per U.S. gallon. Records continued to be broken in the following days until the average cost of filling a 55-liter family car passed the £100 ($125) mark, the first time in history that drivers are paying triple digits for a full tank. The UK government cut fuel duty by the equivalent of $0.062 per liter in March, but wholesale gasoline costs have already jumped fivefold that amount since then, RAC fuel spokesperson Simon Williams said on Thursday."A further duty cut or a temporary reduction in VAT would go a long way towards helping drivers, especially those on lower incomes who have no choice other than to drive," Williams added. Even at $8.63 per gallon gasoline, the UK is not the most expensive fuel market in Europe. Drivers in the Netherlands and Sweden pay more than $9 a gallon, while gasoline prices in Finland, Denmark, and Norway—traditionally the most expensive markets in Europe—are now paying more than $10 per gallon, according toGlobalPetrolPrices.com. That's no consolation for U.S. drivers, who are now paying a national average of$5 per gallon, for the first time ever, and there is no immediate relief for the pain at the pump in sight. Gasoline demand is rising despite record-high prices while gasoline stocks dropped again, per the latest EIA weekly inventory report. Gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels last week and are now about 10% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said on Wednesday. At 416.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 15% below the five-year average for this time of year. "This dynamic between decreased supply and increased demand is contributing to rising prices at the pump. This coupled with increasing crude oil prices means that the price of gas will likely remain elevated for the near future," AAA said in a Thursday comment on the soaring gasoline prices.

Shell eyes new pipeline for high-impact North Sea exploration target --Shell and Deltic Energy have set out development options and a date for drilling a high-impact exploration target in the North Sea. In an AGM presentation released on Wednesday, Deltic said the Pensacola prospect, operated by Shell, will be drilled in late September. The firm, which owns 30% of Pensacola with Shell holding the remaining 70%, said it has prospective potentially recoverable resources of 309 billion cubic feet of gas. In a low volume case scenario of circa 75 BCF, Shell and Deltic plan to develop Pensacola as a tie-back to the Ineos-operated Breagh platform in the Southern North Sea, around 45 miles off the east coast of England. But in a mid/high case the preferred option is to install a new pipeline to tie the prospect back to the Teesside gas processing facility onshore. Deltic has previously described Pensacola as “one of the highest impact exploration targets to be drilled” in the Southern North Sea in recent years. The company said an unnamed jack-up drilling rig will be mobilised from its current well location in the Dutch sector for drilling at Pensacola. Well operations are expected to last 60-80 days once it has been spudded. Deltic highlighted to investors that its 30% working interest gives it the option to divest or farm down during the appraisal stage. Pensacola has a 55% geological chance of success. Shell is also farmed into Deltic’s Selene prospect in the southern gas basin, targeting 318 BCF. Deltic said it is committed to drilling the prospect, pending a well investment decision from Shell who are paying 75% of costs of the first well up to a cap of $25 million.

Norway Gasoline Hits $10 a Gallon -While US drivers despair over gasoline topping $5 a gallon, spare a thought for motorists in oil-rich Norway, where prices sit at $10. Gas stations in Oslo were selling the unleaded fuel for about 27 kroner a liter, or about $10.30 a gallon, on Friday. That makes it the most expensive European country to fill up and second only to Hong Kong globally. Almost half of the pump cost in the Nordic nation is made up of road, carbon and sales taxes, according to the Norwegian Automobile Federation. Norway is Europe’s top petroleum producer and the surge in oil and gas prices due to the war in Ukraine has boosted its coffers. But its consumers — like those across the continent — have been hit by rising pump prices at a time when they’re being squeezed by higher energy and near-record food costs. While Norway’s government has stepped in to subsidize household energy costs, it’s not so keen to do so when it comes to gasoline. With inflation exceeding 5%, speculation is mounting that the central bank will be forced to double the size of its planned interest-rate hike next week. That may not leave the state with a lot of room to help with gasoline prices. Still, higher fuel prices could help drive the shift toward zero-emissions vehicles in Norway, where four out of five new cars sold so far this year were electric. Much of that has been thanks to a slew of incentives, including reduced taxes on new purchases that’s part of a goal to eradicate sales of new petroleum-fueled cars by 2025.

Wildcat well comes up dry for Equinor - Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor has concluded the drilling of a wildcat well near the Ormen Lange field in the Norwegian Sea but failed to find hydrocarbons. The wildcat well 6305/5-C-3 H is located in production licence 209 where Equinor is the operator with Petoro, Shell, and Vår Energi as partners. The well was drilled about 137 kilometres west-northwest of Kristiansund in the Norwegian Sea. As informed by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) on Wednesday, the objective of the well was to prove petroleum in reservoir rocks in the Lange Formation and the Lysing Formation in the Upper Cretaceous (Turonian and Coniacian Ages, respectively). The well encountered mainly siltstone with thin layers of sandstone and dolomite stringers in both formations. Data acquisition has been carried out. Attempts to collect pressure data and sampling indicate that the formations have low permeability and are partly tight. The well is dry. This was the sixth exploration well in production licence 209, awarded in the 15th licensing round. Equinor drilled the well 6305/5-C-3 H to a vertical depth of 4320 metres below sea level and was terminated in the Shetland Group from the Turonian. The water depth at the site is 925 metres. The well has now been permanently plugged and abandoned. The well was drilled by the Transocean Barents drilling rig, which will now continue in the same location to drill a production well 6305/5-C-3 AH. While this was a dry well for Equinor, the Norwegian company has recently made a minor oil and gas discovery near its operated Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, using another Transocean-owned rig, the Transocean Enabler.

May European LNG imports dip as capacity limits sink prices -Following a record month for physical LNG imports in April due to historic price spikes, monthly European receipts decreased in May as limitations in downstream transport pressured local hub prices, an analysis of S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed. As Europe grapples with the problem of replacing lost pipeline supply from Russia, limited inland transportation infrastructure had a part to play in the global dynamic during the month, with some participants deterred from targeting discounted markets as a result. Across S&P Global’s assessed hubs — France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the UK and the Netherlands — a total 8.45 million mt of LNG, or 11.661 billion cu m of natural gas equivalent, was imported in May. This represented a 17.9% drop month on month, but also rose a third on the year, and the eighth consecutive year-on-year increase. Pan-European imports — including Turkey and minor trading hubs — amounted to 10.764 million mt during the month, equating to 14.854 Bcm of natural gas. This measure was down just 7.1% on the month, demonstrating a robust import from smaller hubs as the continent rushed to replace missing pipeline imports. With Russian exports via the Yamal pipeline through Poland now effectively banned, significantly lower transit through Ukraine compared to previous years, and more recently direct supply curtailments as a result of contractual disputes over payment in rubles, Europe has turned to the global LNG market to offset the missing supply. However, much of Europe’s LNG regasification is isolated from neighboring markets, meaning that additional supplies cannot always get to premium markets. There is no physical reverse capacity between France and Germany, just a 20 million cu m/d interconnector linking Spain with France, while nameplate capacity of pipelines from the UK to the mainland is half that of its regasification capacity. UK pipeline export to the European mainland was near maximum for the duration of May. This has caused a major disintegration of the previously integrated European market for gas, with some hubs now at major discounts to the Dutch TTF benchmark, specifically where LNG arrives in abundance, but has little capacity to transport these volumes onward. Consequently, the UK posted the sharpest monthly decline in imports, falling 37.9% on the month to 1.995 Bcm, while the rest of Europe’s liquid trading hubs posted a lesser decrease.

Some European factories are being forced to shut down due to soaring global energy prices, report says - Some European factories have shut down due to soaring global energy prices and insecurity over Russian gas supplies. The Wall Street Journal reported the news.High energy costs, caused in part by the Russia-Ukraine war, are making it hard for European factories to compete with countries where energy prices are lower. Natural gas is three times more expensive in Europe than in the US, per the WSJ.Insider previously reported that energy prices have reached a 13-year high after rising 50% in 2022.Energy-intensive industries such as steel, chemical, and fertilizer manufacturing are shutting their European factories amid rising costs and concerns that Russia may cut off its supply, per the WSJ.Europe has been preparing to ration gas if Russian supplies are cut off. Finland, Bulgaria, and Poland already had their supply ofRussian gas cut off by state-owned company Gazprom PJSC after the countries refused to pay for gas in rubles. Much of Europe's industry is reliant on cheap Russian oil and natural gas. Russia supplied around 40% of the European Union's natural gas in 2021, according to EU data. Germany, the region's largest economy, is one of the most reliant on Russian gas.Europe is also one of the most prominent buyers for Russia, Insider reported that Europe was responsible for 50% 0f Russia's crude oil exports and 75% of its natural gas exports in 2021. In the first two months of the Ukraine war, the EU accounted for 70% of the country's exports.

Local German politician admits "mistake" on Nord Stream 2 --The premier of Germany's Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state, where Russia's Nord Stream 2 makes landfall, has admitted that supporting the pipeline was a "mistake" in an interview with German newspaper Zeit on June 8. "We and I thought that a dialogue [with Russia] could change things for the better," Manuela Schweig said. "In this case, unfortunately that was a mistake." She said she was now critical of her long commitment to the project, and the establishment to support the pipeline's completion after it was targeted by US sanctions. "Knowing what I know now, I wouldn't make that decision anymore," Schweig said.

Russia reduces natural gas exports via European pipeline - - Russia's Gazprom announced a reduction in natural gas flows through a key European pipeline for the second day in a row Wednesday, creating further energy turmoil for Europe as it tries to reduce its extensive use of Russian oil and natural gas amid the war in Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant said on Twitter that deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany would be cut again Thursday, bringing the overall reduction through the undersea pipeline to 60%. The drop in shipments of gas used to power industry and generate electricity would amount to some 16 billion cubic metres by the end of the year, or around 10% of total European Union gas imports from Russia, according to Simone Tagliapietra, an energy policy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. The new cut came a day after Gazprom said it would reduce flows by 40% after Canadian sanctions over the war prevented German partner Siemens Energy from delivering overhauled equipment. It blamed the same issue for the additional reduction. But German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Wednesday that Gazprom's initial move appeared to be political rather than a result of technical problems. He said the new developments “clearly show the Russian side's explanation is simply an excuse”.

Nord Stream gas capacity restrained by repair delays, Gazprom says - Russia’s Gazprom said on Tuesday capacity to supply gas to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was constrained to 100 million cubic meters per day due to delayed repair works. The pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, can usually carry 167 mcm, Gazprom said in a statement on the company’s Telegram channel. The cause of the reduced capacity was the delay in Germany company Siemens returning equipment that had been sent for repair. Gas pipeline flows are currently in focus over disruption concerns in the wake of Moscow’s Ukraine invasion. Germany received more than half of its gas from Russia last year, a number that has since come down slightly.

Germany’s refinery dilemma tests Russian oil ban resolve - Germany is struggling to find a way to wrest control of a Russian-owned refinery that supplies most of Berlin’s fuel, four people close to the matter said, fearing retaliation by Moscow if the site is nationalised and as Western firms hesitate to step in. The PCK refinery in Schwedt, majority-owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft, is testing Germany’s resolve to eliminate imports of oil from Russia by the end of the year under fresh European sanctions to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The landlocked refinery is the source of 90% of Berlin’s fuel and has received all its crude from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline since the plant was built in the 1960s. One solution considered by Germany has been to temporarily hand control of the refinery’s day-to-day operations to British oil major Shell, which owns a 37.5% stake in Schwedt, according to government and company sources. Shell, which saw Germany block the sale of its stake in Schwedt to Rosneft last year, is willing to step in as an interim operator, two of the people said, including a company source. But it is neither interested in taking over a larger stake nor being a permanent operator, they said. Officials have also sounded out the idea of handing operations to Polish refinery PKN Orlen which could play a key role in efforts to reroute the refinery’s crude supplies away from Russia. PKN Orlen and Shell declined to comment. Rosneft, PCK and the Polish government did not immediately reply to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Germany’s Economy Ministry, which is in charge of energy, said: “We are working flat out to find a solution. We know the problem and are working on it.” Poland insists that Rosneft must be ousted from Schwedt, Germany’s fourth-largest refinery, before a potential deal including state-controlled PKN, the people said. Rosneft, meantime, has so far refused to engage with Germany to discuss a sale of its 54.17% stake in Schwedt or any other solutions that could resolve the situation, the people said. Italy’s Eni holds the remaining 8.33% and last month confirmed it was in the process of selling it.

In landmark deal signed in Cairo, Israel to export natural gas, via Egypt, to Europe | The Times of Israel -Israel, Egypt and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday in Cairo that will see Israel export its natural gas to the bloc for the first time.The landmark agreement will increase liquified natural gas sales to EU countries, which are aiming to reduce dependence on supply from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.Last year, the EU imported roughly 40 percent of its gas from Russia. It has faced energy difficulties since imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow.The agreement will see Israel send gas via Egypt, which has facilities to liquify it for export via sea.Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said the signing of the MOU had cemented Israel’s role on the global energy stage.“This is a tremendous moment in which little Israel is becoming a significant player in the global energy market,” Elharrar said.She called the deal “historic,” including in terms of the Israeli-Egyptian cooperation involved.In a joint news conference alongside European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and Egyptian Petroleum Minister Tarek el-Molla, Elharrar said the deal came about in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The memorandum ofunderstanding will allow Israel to export Israeli natural gas to Europe for the first time, and it is even more impressive when one looks at the string of significant agreements we have signed in the past year, positioning Israel and the Israeli energy and water economy as a key player in the world,” she said.

Ukraine Suspends All Gas, Coal & Fuel Oil Exports To Meet Internal Demand - On Monday the Ukrainian government announced implementation of a measure halting all its exports of gas, coal and fuel oil, citing disruptions and a domestic supply emergency due to the Russian invasion.These commodities are now prohibited for export during a time of war, the published government resolution states, which is the result of "the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the imposition of martial law in Ukraine."Ukraine typically ships small supplies of natural gas across its western frontier for European trading, while also prior to losing its access to Crimea starting in 2014, the International Energy Agency estimated Ukraine had about 9 billion tonnes of oil equivalent in fossil fuel reserves.Previously, national power grid operator Ukrenergy severed the interconnect from Ukraine to Russia in the wake of the Feb.24 invasion. Ukraine was then quickly connected to the European grid on a hastened emergency bases (which was in the works according to a 2017 deal, but before the war changed plans, it had been set for 2023).Still, periodic war-related power losses have affected over four million Ukrainian households - though there's been surprising overall power stability for the rest of the country, given there's an invasion on.Starting last week Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky forewarned the public and external trade partners that the energy suspension was imminent. He said on his Telegram channel that his country is suspending all coal and gas exports in preparation for the coming winter, emphasizing that Ukraine must prepare for what looks to be "the most difficult winter during all years of independence."

Russia lowers gas flows to Europe with part stuck in Canada - Russian natural gas deliveries through a key pipeline to Europe will drop by around 40% this year, state-controlled energy giant Gazprom said Tuesday, after Canadian sanctions over the war in Ukraine prevented German partner Siemens Energy from delivering overhauled equipment. Germany's utility network agency said it did not see gas supplies as endangered and that reduced flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic Sea aligned with commercial behavior and Russia's previously announced cutoff of gas to Denmark and the Netherlands, the German news agency dpa reported. The Federal Network Agency said it was monitoring the situation. Spot gas prices rose in Europe, a sign of jitters over possible further effects of the war on supplies of Russian gas, which powers industry and generates electricity on the continent. The European Union has outlined plans to reduce dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds by year's end. Economists say a complete cutoff would deal a severe blow to the economy, consumers and gas-intensive industries. High energy prices are already contributing to record inflation of 8.1% in the 19 countries that use the euro. Gas demand has fallen after the end of the winter heating season, but European utilities are racing to refill storage ahead of next winter with prices high and supplies uncertain. “Gas supplies to the Nord Stream gas pipeline can currently be provided in the amount of up to 100 million cubic meters per day (compared to) the planned volume of 167 million cubic meters per day,” Gazprom said in a statement. It did not provide a timeline for the planned drop in gas flows. Siemens Energy said a gas turbine that powers a compressor station on the pipeline had been in service for more than 10 years and had been taken to Montreal for a scheduled overhaul. But because of sanctions imposed by Canada, the company has been unable to return the equipment to the customer, Gazprom. “Against this background we informed the Canadian and German government and are working on a sustainable solution,” Siemens Energy said in a statement.

Russia is cutting 40% of one key pipeline's natural-gas supply to Germany because a piece of equipment is stuck in Canada --Russian energy giant Gazprom said it's cutting natural gas supplies to Germany via a key pipeline by 40% because a piece of equipment is stuck in Canada.In a June 14 tweet, Gazprom wrote that Germany's Siemens Energy has failed to return a gas compressor unit "in due time" after it was sent for repair. As a result, it said it can supply a maximum of 100 million cubic meters of natural gas each day into the Nord Stream pipeline — down from 167 million cubic meters per day.Nord Stream ferries fuel from Russia to Germany and beyond. It has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters."Due to the sanctions imposed by Canada, it is currently impossible for Siemens Energy to deliver overhauled gas turbines to the customer," Siemens Energy told Insider. "Against this background we have informed the Canadian and German government and are working on a viable solution," it added.Germany — Europe's largest economy — is dependent on natural gas piped in from Russia. It currently gets about 35% of its natural gas from Russia and plans to wean itself off the imports by 2024, the country's economy minister said in a March 25 press release.On Tuesday, after Gazprom's first Telegram post about cutting Nord Stream gas supplies, Germany's economy ministry tweeted that the country's natural-gas supply is "guaranteed" and "unchanged."A decline in natural-gas supplies may not hit Germany as badly now as it would have in the winter because consumption for the fuel typically troughs in summer. Demand rises in the winter months due to heating. Europe has also been stockpiling natural gas at a record rate due to fears of supply disruptions, Reuters reported last week.European natural-gas prices surged 20% on Tuesday on the back of the Gazprom news. A liquefied natural gas plant outage in Texasalso contributed to the price gains.Benchmark US natural-gas futures were up 1.53% at $7.30 per metric million British thermal unit at 12.49 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

Eni Says Gazprom Cuts Gas Flows to Italy by About 15 Percent - Gazprom PJSC has cut gas supplies to Italy, state-controlled oil giant Eni SpA said Wednesday, citing a communication from the Russian company. The reduction amounts to about 15% of total flows from Russia to Italy, an Eni spokesperson said. Gazprom didn’t provide any reason for the decision. Moscow-based Gazprom said Tuesday it’s reducing flows through Nord Stream, a key pipeline for Russian gas exports to Europe, by 40% amid technical issues at its Baltic station, further aggravating supply concerns on the continent. Eni is spearheading efforts by Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government to lower Italy’s dependence on Russian gas, partly through its longstanding ties with African producer countries.

Rising gas cost could spell more coal use as spread narrows - Europe – EBR - Over the past several months the spread of so-called “clean-dark” and “clean-spark” prices have narrowed but still heavily favour coal usage for power plants, and the recent jump in gas prices threaten to once again widen the spread.The “clean-dark” price is the one paid for coal usage when accounting for both fuel costs and the cost of carbon permits, while the “clean-spark” price covers the cost of gas utilisation and subsequent emissions.The gas cost has begun to jump again over the past two days as Russian gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline fell further and Moscow said more delays in repairs could lead to it suspending all flows.While the global coal market has also remained very tight, resulting in higher coal prices, the market still expects coal to be the cheaper source next year, indicating that coal utilisation would remain high, Rystad Energy analyst Fabian Ronnigen said.The European Union is set to ban Russian coal imports in mid-August, which will put more strain on supply and force consumers to look elsewhere, further tightening the market.The EU Commission has estimated that coal purchases from Russia amounts to around €8 billion a year.Data from Rystad Energy also showed that coal power could remain the more competitive fuel source through 2025.However, the recent failed proposal to change the EU emissions trading system (ETS) is expected to benefit gas usage, as a tighter carbon market would result in higher emissions prices.As coal is more carbon intensive, rising emissions costs make gas more competitive, since operators would have to hold less permits to utilize gas production than coal.The gas-to-coal spread indicator has narrowed its gap to the carbon emissions prices (EUA) significantly lately but still remains more than 50% above carbon allowances, ICIS analyst Florian Rothenberg said.The indicator expresses how high EUA prices would need to be to incentivize gas power generation rather than coal power generation.This means that gas-fired power plants are set to remain switched off in all hours where enough coal-fired capacity is available to replace it, he added.For the coming fall and winter months, temperatures could also draw gas away from the power sector and toward residential heating demand.“Only in the case of a very warm winter combined with renewed bullishness on the carbon permits would we expect the spread to narrow and some efficient gas-fired plants replacing older coal units in the mix,” Rothenberg said.

More than 10 bcm of natural gas accumulated in Ukrainian underground storage facilities - More than 10 billion cubic meters has already been accumulated in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, and these volumes are growing. The relevant statement was made by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Telegram, an Ukrinform correspondent reports. According to Shmyhal, preparations for a very challenging heating season are underway. Thus, the Ukrainian government considers all possible scenarios. “We are preparing for all possible scenarios. At a meeting of the Government, we endorsed a document stipulating that, at the beginning of the heating season in October, our underground gas storage facilities must contain enough natural gas reserves to ensure an uninterrupted heating season under any circumstances. These are the guarantees that our country will have heat supply, and we will be able to pass through the next winter season smoothly,” Shmyhal noted. A reminder that Ukraine is preparing to pass through a new heating season without any Russian energy resources.

Russia's biggest natural gas field is ablaze - Flames goes hundreds of meters into the sky as a fire hits the Urengoy field in Russia's North. The fire erupted after a pipeline burst near one of the production units. The accident happened during night and emergency personnel were on site early morning 16th of June, Telegram channel Gaz-Batyushka informs.The Urengoy is Russia’s biggest natural gas field with reserves up to 10 trillion cubic meters. It is operated by Gazprom Dobycha Urengoy, a regional subsidiary unit of national energy company Gazprom.Production started in the early 1980s and now amounts to about 230 billion cubic meters per year.Like most of Russia’s natural gas fields, the Urengoy is connected with pipelines leading westwards. When another fire hit the Urengoy in 2021 it affected exports to the EU and resulted in a hike in natural gas prices.The lion’s share of the Urengoy gas is exported to Europe, but the field is also linked with pipelines that could bring the gas to the far east, as well as China.The Arctic is Gazprom’s key production area and a lion’s share of its fields are located in the Yamal Nenets Okrug. According to regional authorities, Gazprom and its subsidiaries now annually produce more than 400 billion m3 of natural gas in the region. That includes gas from the Urengoy.

Triple whammy for European gas supplies sends prices soaring – CNN -Europe's natural gas supply has suffered its third blow in 48 hours, sending prices rocketing 42% higher from where they were at the start of the week.Italian energy giant ENI said Wednesday that Gazprom, Russia's state gas producer, would cut its supplies by 15%. It did not know the reason, an ENI spokesperson told CNN Business.The news comes the same day Gazprom said it would cut flows through its Nord Stream 1pipeline — a major artery linking Russia's gas to Germany — for the second time in two days, and a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer in the United States said it would remain offline until September.On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would reduce gas deliveries via Nord Stream 1 by 40% because Siemens Energy had delayed the return of turbines required to conduct repairs on the pipeline. Then, on Wednesday, Gazprom said it would cut supplies by another third to 67 million cubic meters starting Thursday. Siemens had taken the turbines to one of its Canadian factories for maintenance. It said in a statement on Tuesday that it was "impossible" to return the equipment to Russia because of sanctions Canada had imposed on the country over its invasion of Ukraine. ENI confirmed to CNN Business that it does not receive any gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. European gas futures prices spiked by more than 20% Wednesday afternoon to hit €120 ($125) per megawatt hour (MWh), according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange, although prices have since fallen back slightly to trade around €113 ($117) per MWh. Robert Habeck, Germany's economy minister, said Gazprom's decision was "political" and not "technically justifiable." “How this will affect the European and German gas market, we will have to wait and see," he said at a Wednesday press conference.Habeck said in a statement that Gazprom is purposefully upsetting the apple cart."The current reports clearly show that the justification given by the Russian side is simply a pretext," he said. "It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices." Europe has tried to wind down its imports of Russia's natural gas since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. It has set a target to reduce consumption of Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year, and has rapidly increased its imports of LNG as a replacement. But major producer Freeport LNG said Tuesday that it would shut its facility in Texas for 90 days after a fire broke out last week, and would be only partially operational until late this year. It had previously said the plant would close for at least three weeks.Freeport has produced about one fifth of US LNG exports so far this year, according to analytics firm Vortexa.

‘Our product, our rules’: Russia sends alarm bells ringing over Europe’s winter gas supplies— An ominous warning from Russia's state-backed energy giant Gazprom has stoked fears of another turbulent winter for European gas supplies. As a pre-summer heatwave hits Western Europe this week, policymakers in the region are scrambling to fill underground storage with natural gas supplies to provide households with enough fuel to keep the lights on and homes warm before the cold returns. Fears of a severe winter gas shortage are driven by the risk of a full supply disruption to the EU — which receives roughly 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines. The bloc is trying to rapidly reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons in response to the Kremlin's nearly four-month-long onslaught in Ukraine. The worry for many is just how dependable Russian gas flows are to Europe as the conflict continues and as economic sanctions bite. Indeed, Moscow has already cut gas supplies to Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark's Orsted, Dutch firm GasTerra and energy giant Shell for its German contracts, all over a gas-for-rubles payment dispute. Gazprom's Miller says he sees no solution to an ongoing equipment issue at part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. More recently, Russia's Gazprom opted to further limit supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, and reduced flows to Italy. Gazprom on Wednesday cited a technical problem for the supply cut, saying the issue stemmed from the delayed return of equipment serviced by Germany's Siemens Energy in Canada. Austria and Slovakia have also reported supply reductions from Russia. What's more, in fiery comments likely to have sent alarm bells ringing throughout the bloc, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said Thursday that Russia will play by its own rules after the firm halved supplies to Germany. "Our product, our rules. We don't play by rules we didn't create," Miller said during a panel session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, according to The Moscow Times. Miller reportedly said the return of equipment at the Portovaya compressor station — part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that carries Russian gas to Germany — had been hampered by an unprecedented barrage of economic sanctions. He added that he saw no solution to the problem.German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has rejected the claim that Western sanctions were to blame and slammed Russia's supply curbs as a "political decision" designed to unsettle the region and ramp up gas prices. Wholesale Dutch gas prices, a European benchmark for natural gas trading, jumped as much as 9% during Friday morning deals, before paring gains. The latest dispute appears to reaffirm the risk for European countries highly dependent on Russian gas, especially amid growing fears that Moscow could implement a broader squeeze on supplies in the coming months. Underlining the seriousness of these concerns, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned last week that EU countries may be at risk of winter energy rationing if member states do not take more steps to improve energy efficiency.

Russia earns $98 billion from fuel exports in 100 days of Ukraine war- Russia earned 93 billion euros ($98 billion) from fossil fuel exports during the first 100 days of its war in Ukraine, with most sent to the European Union, according to research published Monday. The report from the independent, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) comes as Kyiv urges the West to sever all trade with Russia in the hopes of cutting off the Kremlin's financial lifeline. Earlier this month, the EU agreed to halt most Russian oil imports, on which the continent is heavily dependent. Though the bloc aims to reduce gas shipments by two-thirds this year, an embargo is not in the cards at present. According to the report, the EU took 61 percent of Russia's fossil fuel exports during the war's first 100 days, worth about 57 billion euros ($60 billion). The top importers were China at 12.6 billion euros, Germany (12.1 billion) and Italy (7.8 billion). Russia's fossil fuel revenues come first from the sale of crude oil (46 billion), followed by pipeline gas, oil products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. Even as Russia's exports plummeted in May, with countries and companies shunning its supplies over the Ukraine invasion, the global rise in fossil fuel prices continued to fill the Kremlin's coffers, with export revenues reaching record highs. Russia's average export prices were about 60 percent higher than last year, according to CREA. Some countries have upped their purchases from Moscow, including China, India, the United Arab Emirates and France, the report added. "As the EU is considering stricter sanctions against Russia, France has increased its imports to become the largest buyer of LNG in the world," said CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta. Since most of these are spot purchases rather than long-term contracts, France is consciously deciding to use Russian energy in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Myllyvirta added.

 Would A Price Cap On Russian Oil Help Curb Its Revenue? - The U.S. is discussing with its European allies a price cap on Russian oil. The goal is to keep Russian oil flowing into international markets but curb budget revenues from it to discourage Russia from continuing the war in Ukraine. Theoretically. The situation is not dissimilar to wanting to eat your cake and have it, too. On the one hand, both the U.S. and Europe, suffering the most severe consequences of sanction action so far, are aware that banning Russian oil from international markets would hurt them even more.On the other hand, paying for Russian oil at market prices is not a palatable option because oil—and gas—export revenues make up a solid portion of Russia’s budget, and that budget includes defense spending, and much of that defense spending is going into what Russia calls its special military operation in Ukraine, which the West calls an unprovoked war.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it rather bluntly earlier this week: “I think what we want to do is keep Russian oil flowing into the market to hold down global prices and try to avoid a spike that causes a worldwide recession and drives up oil prices,” she said as quoted by the Wall Street Journal. “But absolutely the objective is to limit the revenue going to Russia.”One might wonder where the concept of the free market went, but in truth, the concept of the free market has been quite dead for a while now. The question is whether the idea that the U.S. and the EU have about an oil price cap could work. In other words, would Russia accept such a move?According to common sense, it would hardly welcome the idea of having a price ceiling imposed on its export oil cargos. According to the former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Sergei Guriev, “Yes, Putin could refuse to sell oil at this price. But, given that he is already desperate enough to sell to China and India at steep discounts, and today’s energy prices far exceed production costs, this seems unlikely.”Indeed, Russian oil is trading at a discount of some $30 or more to Brent crude. Whether there is desperation in the Russian oil equation is difficult to say, if we put emotions and wishes aside. It is clear Russia knew it would have to redirect flows to Asia from Europe should the latter try to punish it for its actions in Ukraine—and it was prepared to do so.It is also clear, or at least it should be, that Russia cannot just redirect all the oil and fuel flows that currently go into Europe to India and China, at least not fast. What this suggests is that Russia may well be prepared to suffer some revenue pain while the redirection proceeds.Also, Russia tends to budget on the basis of quite low oil prices. For last year, for instance, it budgeted for $45 per barrel of Brent crude. Its actual oil revenues last year exceeded initial expectations by more than 51 percent. For 2022, Moscow budgeted for Brent at $44.20 per barrel. So, as Guriev notes, even with a price ceiling of $70 per barrel, Russia would be making a lot more from the sales of its oil than it budgeted for. China and India would only be too happy to pay even less for Russian oil. Yet the question remains whether Russia would be on board with the idea of having its opponents in this war tell it at what price to sell its crude.

India And China Take In Russian Oil Unwanted In The West -- Attracted by cheap prices, India and China continue to increase their imports of Russian crude, which is now mostly banned in the West.India, which wasn’t a big buyer of Russian oil until March this year, has now imported five times the amount of all the Russian crude it bought in the whole of 2021, according to estimates from commodity data firm Kpler cited by The Associated Press. So far this year, India has imported 60 million barrels of crude from Russia, compared to 12 million in Russian oil imports for the entire 2021, per Kpler data.China has also increased its intake of Russian oil, although not as dramatically in percentage hikes as India.China, however, overtook Germany as the largest importer of Russian crude oil anywhere in the world, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said earlier this month, analyzing Russia’s fossil fuel exports and revenues in the first 100 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.“India became a significant importer of Russian crude oil, buying 18% of the country’s exports. A significant share of the crude is re-exported as refined oil products, including to the U.S. and Europe, an important loophole to close,” CREA said.India is even said to be looking to negotiate six-month supply deals with Russia’s oil giant Rosneft at a time when Western buyers avoid dealing with Moscow’s crude.Other price-sensitive buyers in Asia could also import more Russian crude. Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told AP the country would first look into other sources, but is open to importing Russian crude as it is desperate to ease a major economic and fuel crisis. In total, Russia earned $97 billion (93 billion euro) in revenue from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war (February 24 to June 3), with EU importing 61% of this, CREA said.Russia is likely getting more revenues from oil and gas now than before the war in Ukraine, U.S. energy security envoy Amos Hochstein said at a Senate subcommittee hearing last week.

China and India now account for about 50% of Russia's seaborne oil exports, as Asian demand props up Moscow's energy revenues - Half of the Russian oil transported by ship is now heading for Asia — mainly to China and India, according to a Bloomberg analysis published on Monday.Russia shipped 3.55 million barrels of oil a day in the week ending June 10. About 50% of those shipments, or 1.878 million barrels of oil, was heading to Asia, Bloomberg reported, citing commercial vessel tracking data. That's up from under 40% of the exports in the weeks leading up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24.While China's imports from Russia have remained constant, India's buying has ramped up significantly, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent research organization. In the first 100 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, India's purchases of Russian crude rose from 1% to 18% of the exports by value, the CREA wrote in a report published on Monday.In May, Russia became India's second-largest supplier of oil behind Iraq, overtaking Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported, citing trade sources. Indian refiners imported about 819,000 barrels of Russian oil each day in May — a record amount, and about three times more than the 227,000 barrels a day it received in April, according to Reuters.Russian crude oil is priced at a record discount to other grades on the spot market due to sanctions and boycotts, but energy prices have surged this year, propping up sales for the country. Sales of Russian oil and gas are expected to rise to $285 billion in 2022 — 20% higher than the country's $235.6 billion takings from oil and gas in 2021, according to a Bloomberg Economics report earlier this month.Chinese and Indian purchases of Russian oil amid the war have drawn scrutiny from the international community and stand in contrast to sanctions and boycotts from a number of Western countries. The US banned Russian energy imports in March, and the European Union has agreed to slash 90% of its Russian oil imports by the end of this year. Amos Hochstein, the US special envoy for energy affairs, told senators on Thursday that he had urged India to refrain from buying too much Russian oil. Neither India nor China has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia Overtakes Saudi Arabia As India's Second-Largest Oil Supplier - Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil last month, Reuters reported, citing unnamed trade sources.The average daily rate of Russian oil exports to India stood at 819,000 barrels, according to the data that these sources shared, which compared with a meager 277,000 barrels daily in April.According to a report by a Finnish environmental agency, Indian buyers now account for 18 percent of Russian crude oil exports. What is more interesting, however, is that some of the fuel Indian refiners produce using Russian crude is then exported, with some of it eventually ending up in the United States.“We can see crude oil shipments going into refineries that take Russian oil, and then we can see where the stuff goes that they produce,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which authored the report.Russian crude has been trading at a steep discount reaching $30 to Brent since the start of the war in Ukraine, which has made it especially attractive for large importers such as India and China.Both countries have substantially increased their intake of Russian oil over the last three months, with Kpler reporting that so far this year, India has imported five times the amount of all the Russian crude it bought in the whole of 2021. Imports of Russian oil since the start of 2022 have totaled 60 million barrels versus 12 million barrels for the entirety of 2021.Reportedly, the subcontinent is currently looking to secure six-month supply contracts with Rosneft right now, despite warnings from the United States to stop buying so much Russian oil. India relies on imports to satisfy more than 80 percent of its crude oil demand, which makes it particularly vulnerable to international price rallies and a natural fan of bargains such as Russian crude.

Russia seaborne oil exports at 3-year highs despite sanctions shake-up | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Russian seaborne crude exports remained at post-pandemic highs in the first half of June as India and China continued to snap up discounted supplies despite tightening Western sanctions on Moscow.Compared to pre-war levels in January and February, Russia's shipped crude exports from June 1-15 rose by 576,000 b/d to average about 3.88 million b/d, according to preliminary data from shipping analytics provider Kpler. The latest export flows, which are up from 3.81 million b/d in May, put Russia's seaborne crude exports at the highest since May 2019.China and India continue to make up the biggest growth market for Russian oil as EU member states retreat from oil trade with Moscow ahead of the trade bloc's Q1-2023 deadline to end imports of Russian crude and products. The two Asian oil importers have now grown their share of Russian shipped crude to almost 30% and 20% respectively, a combined growth of more than 1 million b/d on pre-war levels. Russian crude export to Turkey have also doubled to 260,000 b/d and Bulgaria imports have also more than trebled to over 200,000 b/d compared to January and February, the data shows.At the same time, EU imports of shipped Russian crude remained at around 1.3 million b/d in the first half of June, little changed from May but down from 1.75 million b/d in January and February. To make up the shortfall, the EU has seen its imports of US crude jump by around 400,000 b/d, or 50%, since the start of the year and bought more Norwegian and Egyptian crude, the figures show, as it cuts its dependence on Moscow's oil.Russia's key export grade Urals has been trading at significant discounts to other crudes since the country invaded Ukraine on Feb 24. Platts assessed Urals at 92.145/b and Dated Brent at $132.06/b May 30, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed. Urals was assessed at $90.72/b and Dated Brent at $100.48/b the day before Russia invaded Ukraine.But with higher crude oil and product prices globally, Russia's oil export revenues are estimated to have increased by $1.7 billion in May to about $20 billion, according to the International Energy Agency, unchanged from February. Russia's oil export resilience to Western boycotts and sanctions so far has surprised most market watchers. After plunging 930,000 b/d in April, Russian total oil production in May actually rose by 130,000 b/d to 10.55 million b/d, the IEA said in its June 15 monthly oil market report."[Russia's] crude oil exports to world markets were reallocated from traditional buyers adhering to new sanctions or shunning barrels voluntarily in solidarity with Ukraine," the IEA noted. "Even with a large swathe of Russian oil output hit by sanctions and embargoes, the country will easily retain its rank as the world's third-largest oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia."Although the EU's ban excludes exports of Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline to central Europe, the EU was importing about 2.3 million b/d of Russian crude and 1.2 million b/d of its oil products before the war, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Russian crude and oil product flows to the EU, its former key export market, are still expected to see a sharper drop in the coming months after the bloc agreed to ban 90% of its imports of Russian crude and products, phased out over the next six to eight months.

EU's sanction on Russian oil boomerangs, boosts global prices to Moscow's benefit - The EU sanctions on Russia's oil exports, which were intended to cripple the Russian economy, have instead boosted oil prices by raising supply pressure on the market, bolstering the country's oil profits as Europe struggles to source their imports from alternative energy suppliers. Earlier this month, EU leaders agreed on the 6th sanctions package which calls for a 90 percent reduction in Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The plan also includes phasing out Russian crude oil supplies in six months and the supply of refined products by the end of the year. The EU states agreed to ban seaborne oil transport, partially exempting pipeline oil as some member countries including Hungary opposed particularly to the oil import ban via the Druzhba pipeline which transports Russian oil to the refineries in Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Although the EU which imports around 25% of its oil from Russia aimed to crash the Russian economy using the oil embargoes, the recent data shows that the bloc has so far failed to achieve it. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia's oil revenue has increased by 50% since the beginning of the year to $20 billion a month, with the EU accounting for the lion's share of its exports. Despite the sanctions currently in place, the IEA said overall Russian oil exports increased by 620,000 bpd in April, rebounding to the January-February average of 8.1 million bpd. Amos Hochstein, the US energy security envoy, told the Senate Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation that Russia may be getting more revenue from its fossil fuels now than it did shortly before its invasion of Ukraine, as global oil price increases offset the impact of Western efforts to restrict Russian sales.

Russia to raise oil output to pre-war levels by next month: Novak -- Russian oil production is close to top pre-war levels and plans to increase it further by July, international media outlets cited Russian deputy prime minister as saying on Thursday. 'We are close to the output levels in February when we had been producing 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd),' Alexander Novak said, adding that Russia plans to expand its output further in July depending on companies’ plans. Earlier this month, EU leaders agreed on the 6th sanctions package which calls for a 90 percent reduction in Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The plan also includes phasing out Russian crude oil supplies in six months and the supply of refined products by the end of the year. The EU states agreed to ban seaborne oil transport, partially exempting pipeline oil as some member countries including Hungary opposed particularly to the oil import ban via the Druzhba pipeline which transports Russian oil to the refineries in Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Russia, as one of the world’s largest oil exporters, meets about 8% of global demand, with the EU the largest recipient. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia exported an average of 7.5 million bpd of oil and oil products last year, out of which approximately 3.4 million bpd was destined for the EU, including 2.2 million bpd of crude oil and 1.2 million bpd of petroleum products. This constitutes approximately 45% of Russia's total oil and petroleum products exports and 25% of the EU's total oil imports.

Russia Was India’s Second Biggest Oil Exporter in May - Russia rose to become India’s second biggest supplier of oil in May, pushing Saudi Arabia into third place but still behind Iraq which remains number 1, data from trade sources showed. In May Indian refiners received about 819,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, the highest thus far in any month, compared to about 277,00 in April, the data showed. Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine prompted many oil importers to shun trade with Moscow, pushing spot prices for Russian crude to record discounts against other grades. That provided Indian refiners, which rarely used to buy Russian oil due to high freight costs, an opportunity to snap up low-priced crude. Russian grades accounted for about 16.5% of India’s overall oil imports in May, and helped raise the share of oil from the CIS countries to about 20.5%, while that from the Middle East declined to about 59.5% %, the data showed. The share of African oil in India’s crude imports last month surged to 11.5% from 5.9% in April, the data showed. “Diesel is calling the tune … if you want to boost production of diesel and jet fuel then you need Nigerian and Angolan grades. China has cut imports of Angolan grades because of COVID-related shutdowns so some of these barrels are going to Europe and some to India,” said Ehsan Ul Haq, analyst with Refinitiv. He said apart from availability of cheaper Russian barrels, higher official selling prices of Middle Eastern oil also pushed Indian refiners to buy Nigerian crude. India’s oil imports in May totalled 4.98 million bpd, the highest since December 2020, as state refiners raised output to meet growing local demand while private refiners turned focus to gain from exports, the data showed. India’s oil imports in May were about 5.6% up from the previous month and about 19% from a year earlier, the data obtained from sources showed. India has defended its purchase of “cheap” Russian oil saying imports from Moscow made only a fraction of the country’s overall needs and a sudden stop would drive up costs for its consumers. Higher oil imports from Russia, curbed OPEC’s share in India’s overall imports to 65% in April.

Türkiye's production target just 2 years after gas discovery 'impressive' -Given the challenging ultra-deep water terrain of Türkiye's Sakarya gas field and the fact that the project is a greenfield, producing gas within two years of discovery seems impressive, said Rami Khrais, an oil and gas analyst at the data analytics and consulting company GlobalData. Khrais told Anadolu Agency that Türkiye's largest offshore discovery could be transformational for the country in supporting its growing gas demand. "The fast development of Sakarya’s reservoir reflects Türkiye’s desperate need to diversify its energy sources specially after the global energy crisis resulting from the Ukraine war," he said. He said that the current under-construction gas processing plant in Filyos can only handle 350 million cubic feet per day. "Additional onshore gas processing plants are therefore required to handle the output increases during the second phase of the project," he added. Khrais said that Türkiye imports almost its entire gas needs from abroad, with Russia meeting 40% of the country’s total gas demand. "The startup of Sakarya Phase-2, which is expected to produce 1.4 billion cubic feet per day around the end of the current decade, is set to help Turkey mitigate its extreme reliance on external suppliers for natural gas. It will also help alleviate the mounting pressure on the local customers suffering from increasing inflation," he explained. Khrais underlined that the discovery of Sakarya in the Black Sea might pave the way for new finds in Türkiye’s deep waters. "The exploration campaign in the area has resulted on June 2021 the discovery of a northern extension of Sakarya, known as 'Sakarya North', with estimated reserves of 4.8 trillion cubic feet," he added.

Oman’s LNG output surges to a record 10.6 million tonnes in 2021 Oman’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production surged 4 per cent to a record 10.6 million tonnes in 2021 and is expected to reach 11 million tonnes a year after the completion of projects to increase output, the Oman News Agency reported on Sunday. The LNG sector provided the sultanate's government with revenue of about $2.87 billion during the past year, the report said. LNG production is expected to grow as state-backed Oman LNG previously revealed plans to expand capacity to 11.4 million tonnes a year in 2022 by reducing bottlenecks at its liquefaction plant in Qalhat, south of the capital, Muscat. “During 2021, the Oman LNG Company continued its progress in implementing several strategic projects that are nearing completion to enhance productivity, such as the plant renewal project … and the modern energy project that uses gas engine technology to raise efficiency,” ONA said. Global trade in LNG rose 6 per cent to 380 million tonnes in 2021 on the back of higher demand as economies recovered from the coronavirus-induced slowdown and countries focused on cutting emissions, according to Shell's latest LNG outlook report. China, the world's second-largest economy, and South Korea led the growth in LNG demand last year. Demand is expected to increase this year as European countries look for alternative LNG supplies after the ban on most of the energy imports from Russia because of Moscow's conflict with Ukraine.

Shell challenging court’s jurisdiction in oil spill compensation suit- Counsel --The Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) has challenged the jurisdiction of a Federal High Court in Yenagoa to hear a N700 billion oil spill compensation suit filed by members of Aghoro I Community in Bayelsa. The people of Aghoro I in Ekeremor Local Government Area (LGA) in Bayelsa dragged the SPDC to Federal High Court Yenagoa over a May 17, 2018 oil leak from the oil firm’s Trans Ramos Pipeline. When the suit came up for hearing, Counsel to SPDC, Mr Michael Amadi told the court that the oil firm is challenging the jurisdiction to hear the case and appeal at the Court of Appeal. He further urged the court to hand off the case pending the determination of the interlocutory appeal as demanded by the hierarchy of courts since the Court of Appeal was already adjudicating into SPDC’s appeal. Justice Isa Dashen noted that although the records as claimed by the defendant’s counsel was before the court, he is yet to go through them. He said that he was entitled to go through the court processes and records of the Court of Appeal before staying proceedings on the matter. He adjourned until Oct. 19 to enable and go through the processes filed before the court, adding that he would await the decision of the appellate court as the rules demand. The plaintiffs are Mr Victor Akamu, Pastor Erebimienkumor Goddey, Mrs Jane Alex, Miss Edith George, Mr Israel Tomonye and FASF Associates Ltd on behalf of Aghoro I community at Ekeremor LGA, Bayelsa. They are seeking redress for the damages caused by the oil spill and are claiming that the N33.49 million offered by SPDC was a far cry from the N700 billion claim based on impacted area damage assessment. Listed as defendants in the suit are, Shell Petroleum Development Company, Shell International Exploration and Production BV, Attorney-General and Minister of Justice and Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation.

Libyan oil supply outages intensify as political crisis deepens - Libya’s oil sector has been hit by more supply disruptions due to closures of the 200,000 b/d Sarir field and the 250,000 b/d Es Sider terminal as protestors blockaded those sites, industry sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights June 10. More than half of Libya’s oil production is now offline as tensions between the two rival governments have escalated in recent weeks, with both jostling for power and oil revenues. The Es Sider terminal was closed as of the morning of June 10 after protests began the previous day, sources said. The 200,000 b/d Sarir field, which is connected to the 250,000 b/d Marsa el-Hariga terminal, was also confirmed closed. Sources expected protestors to target the Marsa el-Hariga terminal next. The self-styled Libyan National Army, which supports the east-based Government of National Stability, has backed these protests. The LNA, led by Khalifa Haftar, controls most of Libya’s oil and gas infrastructure but does not control sales and distribution of revenue. These protests have also spread to the 200,000 b/d Ras Lanuf Port, sources added. “Protesters entered Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, issuing threats to restrict operations. A tanker at Ras Lanuf tanker was allowed to load and leave. Es Sider is now confirmed closed,” a source told S&P Global Commodity Insights. “Protesters seem to identify as ‘oil crescent’ locals, which underlines LNA involvement.” A spokesperson at state-owned National Oil Corporation was unavailable for comment. Operations at Libya’s largest oil field Sharara are being hampered by technical and security issues, industry sources said June 8.

Nigeria, six others' crude oil production dropped in May: OPEC - The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has released a new report on crude oil production of its member countries, indicating that six countries increased their crude oil output while seven countries declined in production. The information is contained in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May 2022. The report showed that crude oil output increased in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Angola, Algeria, and Congo. At the same time, production in Libya, Nigeria, Iraq, Gabon, Venezuela, Iran and Equatorial Guinea declined. It showed that total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 28.47 million barrels per day in May 2022, lower by 239,000 barrels per day month-on-month. The report saw Saudi Arabia increasing output from 10,366 tb/d in April to 10,417 tb/d in May, UAE increased from 3,015 tb/d to 3,042 tb/d, while Kuwait jumped from 2,662 tb/d to 2687tb/d. It further showed that Angola increased its crude oil output from 1,168 tb/d in April to 1,176tb/d in May, Algeria improved from 1,003 tb/d to 1,007tb/d, while Congo slightly moved up from 262tb/d to 268tb/d. However, production in Libya declined from 914 tb/d in April to 725 tb/d in May, Nigeria’s output fell from 1,322 tb/d to 1,258 tb/d, while Iraq declined from 4,420 tb/d to 4,374tb/d. Also, Gabon declined from 200tb/d to 169tb/d, Venezuela went down from 712tb/d to 711tb/d, while Iran and Equatorial Guinea dropped from 2,564tb/d to 2,538tb/d and 96tb/d to 94tb/d respectively. On the world oil supply, the report said preliminary data indicated that global liquids production in May decreased by 0.22 mb/d to an average of 98.71 mb/d compared with April. Non-OPEC liquids production (including OPEC Natural Gas Liquids) is estimated to have increased in May by a minor 23 tb/d m-o-m to average 70.2 mb/d, but this was higher by 1.7 mb/d year-on-year. “Preliminary estimated decreases in production during May were mainly driven by Canada and the UK by 0.4 mb/d, while Eurasia and Latin America are expected to have seen growth in liquids output of 0.4 mb/d”. The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production decreased by 0.2 pp to 28.8 per cent in May compared with the previous month. Estimates are based on preliminary data from direct communication for non-OPEC supply, OPEC and non-conventional oil, while estimates for OPEC crude production are based on secondary sources.

UN appeals to public for $20m to stop feared catastrophic oil spill from tanker -- A rare UN appeal to the public to raise $20m is to be launched on Tuesday in an attempt to prevent an environmental catastrophe caused by the potential break-up of an oil tanker off the coast of Yemen. The money is needed to offload more than 1.14m barrels of oil that have been sitting in the decrepit cargo ship, Safer, for more than six years because of an impasse between Houthi groups and the Saudi-backed government over ownership and responsibility.The UN is in a race against time because the oil transfer needs to be completed by the winter when the currents and winds increase, raising the risk of the vessel breaking up and pouring the oil into the Red Sea.The UN’s resident coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, admitted the resort to an appeal to the general public was unusual, but said the UN needed the money by the end of the month, saying: “It was do-able but it is going to take a push; $20m is not a lot if you consider the estimated $20bn cost of a clean-up alone.”He admitted legal and budgetary constraints have made it difficult for some countries to contribute: “It is far easier to raise funds to respond to a catastrophe than to prevent a catastrophe.”Gressly warned: “We are taking a chance this ship will break up every day we delay. We are running out of time. We are rolling the dice every day.” He said it was a certainty that the ship would break up soon, and the Safer’s captain had told him it was only a miracle that had prevented the disaster last winter.Any delay into July means the four-month operation would not be complete by the time the winds and currents strengthen dangerously from November onwards.The appeal to the public underlines how reluctant cash-strapped countries are to give money at present.The UN has so far only raised $60m from member states as part of a complex operation to remove the oil and then sell it on the open market. The estimated total cost of all the stages of the clean-up is put at $144m, but countries have so far failed to stump up the cash.Disputes between the Houthi rebel forces and the UN-recognised government in Yemen over the proceeds of the oil’s sale, and the need for a replacement vessel, have prevented the UN from acting, but officials now say these political and security issues have either been resolved or deferred, meaning the hold-up is only being caused by a lack of resources to fund the rescue.A special UN appeal conference in May took the funding to $40m, but then the US and Saudi Arabia each contributed a further $10m, leaving the UN $20m short of the money it needs to complete the first stage of preparing the ageing vessel for the oil transfer. Gressly said any spillage would have a catastrophic environmental impact on the Red Sea, including 20,000 fishery livelihoods, the ability to access ports that deliver commercial and humanitarian food to Yemen, and Red Sea shipping channels. He warned fishing stocks would be damaged for 25 years.

UN resorts to public crowdfunding to avert oil spill off Yemen - The United Nations is turning to public crowdfunding to prevent a decaying tanker from causing an oil spill off the coast of Yemen that could have disastrous implications for the greater region. A U.N. donor conference last month failed to raise the amount needed for the rescue of the stricken FSO Safer tanker, which experts say could break apart or explode at any moment. The organization earlier warned that it would cost $20 billion to clean up the spill.. According to the U.N., around $80 million is needed to start the salvage operation. Three-quarters of the sum has now been collected. U.N. emergency relief coordinator for Yemen, David Gressly, hopes the new crowdfunding campaign can raise $5 million from private individuals. The Safer has been used as a floating oil storage tank since the 1980s and is carrying 1.1 million barrels of crude oil. The ship is now considered structurally unsound as it has not been maintained since war broke out in Yemen in 2015. In the event of a leak, an explosion in the tanks or a rupture, four times as much oil could escape as in the 1989 disaster involving the tanker Exxon Valdez off Alaska. Any operation to move it would take several months and would have to be completed before the weather off the coast of Yemen worsens starting in September. Strong winds and unsteady currents starting in October would then make the operation more difficult and increase the risk of the rusting tanker breaking apart. In addition to the devastating damage to people and the environment in the region, shipping in the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Suez Canal would also be severely affected.

 Saudi offers $10 million to prevent Red Sea oil spill disaster off Yemen -Saudi Arabia on Sunday pledged $10 million to help prevent an ageing Yemeni oil tanker from unleashing a potentially catastrophic spill in the Red Sea bordering its waters. The decaying 45-year-old oil tanker known as the FSO Safer, long used as a floating storage platform and now abandoned off the rebel-held Yemeni port of Hodeida, has not been serviced since Yemen was plunged into civil war. A Saudi-led military coalition intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa the previous year. The tanker, which lies some 150 kilometres (100 miles) south of the border with Saudi Arabia, is in "imminent" danger of breaking up, the United Nations warned last month. The Safer contains four times the amount of oil that was spilled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, one of the world's worst ecological catastrophes, according to the UN. Last week environmental campaign group Greenpeace urged the Arab League to drum up funds for an operation that would transfer its 1.1 million barrels of oil to a different vessel. A UN pledging conference last month fell far short of its $80 million target, bringing in just $33 million. Environmentalists warn the cost of the operation is a pittance compared to the estimated $20 billion it would cost to clean up a spill.

USA Pledges Millions to Address Supertanker Threat --U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has announced that the Department of State is working with Congress to provide $10 million in support of the UN plan to address the “imminent threat” to the Red Sea ecosystem from the FSO Safer in Yemen. “An oil spill or leak would cost the world billions to clean up, devastate Red Sea marine life, impede global commerce in a major international waterway, destroy the livelihoods of those that depend on fisheries, and worsen an already critical humanitarian situation in Yemen,” Blinken said in a government statement. “We must work to prevent this,” he added in the statement. Blinken outlined that the UN needs $80 million for an initial emergency operation to transfer the Safer’s oil to a more secure vessel. “We thank donors that have already come forward … [The] U.S. pledge gets us closer to our goal. We call on the private sector and other governments that have a stake in this vital waterway to come forward now and deliver urgently needed funding,” Blinken stated. Last month, International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Kitack Lim urged further financial support for the UN-coordinated operational plan to address the threat of an oil spill from the FSO Safer. “In the face of an impending environmental disaster, we must do all we can to prevent it. We must act now,” Lim said in an organization statement. “The time is now. The risks are high. We must act to avert disaster,” he added in the statement. Back in May, a joint statement from representatives of the U.S. and Netherlands governments warned that the “rapidly decaying” Safer supertanker could explode at any time. In April, the UN unveiled plans to address the threat posed by the FSO Safer, which it described as a time bomb sitting off Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The plan has received the backing of the Yemeni Government, based in Aden, while a memorandum of understanding has been signed with the de facto authorities in the capital, Sana’a, who control the area where the FSO Safer is located, the UN noted back in April. The plan involves installing a long-term replacement for the tanker within an 18-month period and an emergency operation to transfer the oil to a safe temporary vessel over four months, the UN has outlined. Both the FSO Safer and the temporary vessel would remain in place until all the oil is transferred to the permanent replacement vessel, the UN has pointed out. The FSO Safer would then be towed to a yard and sold for salvage, according to the organization.

Crude oil falls on China lockdown fears, higher-than-expected US inflation - Crude oil futures were lower in midmorning Asian trade June 13, as pandemic-related concerns in China, coupled with a higher-than-expected US inflation report weighed on sentiment. At 10:53 am Singapore time (0253 GMT), the ICE August Brent futures contract was down $1.84/b (1.51%) from the previous close at $120.17/b, while the NYMEX July light sweet crude contract fell $1.83/b (1.52%) at $118.84/b. COVID-19 worries in Beijing dampened the anticipated demand recovery in China and these concerns were further aggravated by Shanghai's temporary lockdown measures on June 11 for coronavirus mass testing. On June 12, Chinese authorities announced mass testing in Chaoyang, Beijing until June 15, as the country doubles down on the 'dynamic zero-COVID policy'. "China remains the significant near-term downside risk, but most view the gradual normalization of Chinese demand as a powerful positive for oil despite the potential for lockdown noise in the coming weeks as current demand is far from reflecting normal conditions," In the US, consumer price index rose at an 8.6% annual rate in May, hitting a four-decade high, the government data showed. "This crushed the notion that inflation may have peaked the prior month and markets are now expecting an even more aggressive tightening stance from the US Federal Reserve on the back of Friday's inflation data," OCBC treasury research analysts said in a note June 13. Sustained rise in inflation rate is likely to keep the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to sharpen its pace of interest rate hikes. "Oil traded lower as Fed tightening expectations hit fresh highs driving recession fears to multi-storey levels," Dubai crude swaps and intermonth spreads were lower in midmorning trade in Asia June 13 from the previous close. The August Dubai swap was pegged at $108.12/b at 10 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), down $3.41/b (3.06%) from the June 10 Asian market close.

Oil prices fall by more than $2/bbl on fresh COVID-19 outbreak in China -(ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than $2/bbl on Monday on worries that fresh COVID-19 outbreaks in China could lead to further lockdowns, which will weigh on fuel demand. China’s financial hub Shanghai has re-imposed a dine-in ban, while Beijing has delayed re-opening for most schools planned for this week as COVID-19 infections rates in both cities ticked higher. Both Shanghai and Beijing have also resumed mass COVID-19 testing. Beijing authorities on 11 June said that all 61 new cases uncovered in the city the previous day had either visited a bar or had links to it. “The recent outbreak is strongly explosive in nature and widespread in scope,” Xu Hejian, spokesperson of the Beijing municipal government, had said in a news briefing. Beijing’s most populous district, Chaoyang, on 12 June announced three rounds of mass testing between 13-16 June, but the city has not announced any fresh lockdowns. In Shanghai, officials over the weekend announced three new confirmed local cases detected outside quarantined areas on 11 June, as all residents in 15 of its 16 districts underwent a fresh round of COVID-19 testing. The city lifted a strict two-month COVID-19 lockdown on 1 June. Mainland China reported 220 new coronavirus cases for 12 June, of which 89 were symptomatic and 131 were asymptomatic, the country’s National Health Commission said on Monday. That compared with 275 new cases a day earlier. Meanwhile, concerns about further interest rate hikes following a sharp rise in US inflation data on 10 June are also weighing on global financial markets. Both Brent and WTI had risen last week on data showing robust oil demand in the US – the world’s top consumer – despite inflation concerns, and on hopes that consumption in China could rebound after COVID-19 curbs were lifted from 1 June.

Oil Spikes On Reports Libya Shuts Down Nearly All Its Oil Fields - Libya is losing oil production at the rate of 1.1 million barrels daily, the country’s oil minister Mohammed Aoun has said, adding that almost all of the country’s oil fields were shut down.Libya’s largest field, El Sharara, was shut down last month along with El Feel, with reports saying that it was groups affiliated with the eastern parliament that shut down oil production, among them the Libyan National Army of Halifa Khaftar.[ZH: The Bloomberg headline appears to have sparked a bid in crude, sending WTI prices surging back into the green...]According to Aoun, however, “it appears that the closure instructions were issued by an official body, the Petroleum Facilities Guard in the closure areas.”Libya is currently in the throes of yet another flare-up of violence as two politicians vie for the post of Prime Minister: interim PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and eastern-affiliated Fathi Bashaga. According to reports, the groups shutting down fields and export terminals are affiliated with the Bashaga camp.Bashaga has been sworn in as the new prime minister of the country, but Dbeibah has refused to step down.According to the oil minister, the only functioning fields right now in Libya are Hamada and the Mellitah complex, with the Wafa field producing from time to time.This means that Libya is producing almost no oil, putting further strain on an already undersupplied oil market. The North African country was already producing about 600,000 bpd in May due to the large field and export terminal closures, and now, based on Aoun’s comments, its output rate is close to about 100,000 bpd.The impact of such outages on international prices could have been significant were it not for the fact that outages in Libya are frequent and the latest news from China, which is mass-testing citizens in a Beijing district after an outbreak of Covid. The latter sparked concern about China’s demand prospect in case it decides to impose more lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus.

Products Drop as Traders Eye Demand Loss, Slowing Economy - Oil futures settled a volatile session on Monday mixed, with RBOB plunging 3.3% and ULSD 1.9% in response to concerns over expected lost demand growth this summer as the U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates aggressively at their meetings this week and in July to fight "unacceptable" levels of inflation. U.S. economic growth is estimated to have slowed to 0.9% in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast, down from 2.5% seen just four weeks ago. As the growth outlook decelerates, odds for a recession are climbing rapidly, with Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman seeing a 50-50 chance of an economic crisis in the months ahead. That's up from his earlier 30% recession-risk estimate, said Gorman, while adding "we're unlikely at this stage to go into a deep or long recession." Faced with heightened risk for an economic contraction, investors on Wall Street broadly unloaded risk and snapped up safer assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.8% or 876.05 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 4.7%. The S&P 500 slumped 3.9%, with most company stocks included in the index down on the day. The decline puts the S&P 500 500 into bear market territory for the first time since 2020. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.35% Monday from 3.156% on Friday. Climbing inflation in the United States, which accelerated in May to a 40-year high 8.6% on an annual basis, has also spurred a rally in the U.S. dollar index ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting on expectations central bank officials would need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. . Offsetting the bearish drivers, Libyan oil production was nearly fully halted on Monday as political strife led to more shutdowns of export ports and oil fields. Production is now down by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd), said Libya's Oil Minister Mohamed Oun. The OPEC member's daily output -- which averaged 1.2 million bpd last year -- is down by about 1.1 million bpd, suggesting Libya is now pumping only about 100,000 bpd. The fall in supply will further tighten a global market that has seen crude prices jump more than 50% this year to more than $120 bbl. At settlement, July West Texas Intermediate futures were up $0.26 to $120.93 per barrel (bbl) and ICE August Brent futures were up $0.26 to $122.27 bbl. For oil products, July ULSD futures were down 8.33 cents at $4.2834 gallon, and July RBOB futures were 13.69 cents lower at $4.0353 after losing 10.4 cents in Friday's session.

Oil Prices Spike As OPEC Reveals Production Loss For May -Not only did OPEC not lift its production as agreed for the month of May, its production actually decreased, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the group stressed that oil demand could be stymied by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That point, however, did little to assuage the market’s fear that OPEC’s spare capacity has been overstated, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE the only members that have any room to increase production. That extra production from The Kingdom and the Emirates, however, has been offset by an even greater decline in production from Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria.OPEC produced a total of 28.508 million bpd in May—down 176,000 bpd from April 2022. The reason for the decline are decreases in production in Equatorial Guinea (-2,000 bpd), Venezuela (-2,000 bpd), Iran (-20,000 bpd), Iraq (-21,000 bpd), Gabon (-32,000 bpd), Nigeria (-45,000), and most notably—Libya (-186,000 bpd), according to OPEC’s secondary sources.Saudi Arabia’s directly reported production was 10.538 million bpd.These losses were partially—but not completely—offset by gains in Saudi Arabia, which increased production by 60,000 bpd, reaching an average of 10.424 million bpd; the UAE, which saw an increase of 31,000 bpd, and Kuwait, which saw a 27,000 bpd increase.For the 10 OPEC members that had assigned quotas for May 2022 totaling 25.589 (which exclude Iran, Venezuela, and Libya), May’s actual OPEC member production was 24.541—a 1.048 million bpd shortfall from OPEC’s stated allowances.The market reacted to the data with a rebound in oil prices. At 9:14 am ET, WTI had risen 1.27% to $122.50, while Brent crude had risen 1.33% to $123.90 per barrel.

Oil prices rise as tight supply counters China Covid, recession worries - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as tight global supply outweighed worries that fuel demand would be hit by a possible recession and fresh COVID-19 curbs in China. Brent crude futures rose 88 cents, or 0.7%, to $123.15 a barrel at 0824 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 88 cents, or 0.7% to $121.81 a barrel. Tight supply has been aggravated by a drop in exports from Libya amid a political crisis that has hit output and ports. Other OPEC+ producers are struggling to meet their production quotas and Russia faces bans on its oil over the war in Ukraine. "The continuing squeeze on refined products globally, as well as a lack of investment to bring online more supplies from OPEC members, or other sources, means lost Russian production is nowhere near being covered by global markets," UBS raised its Brent price forecast to $130 a barrel for end-September and to $125 for the subsequent three quarters, up from $115 previously. "Low oil inventories, dwindling spare capacity, and the risk of supply growth lagging demand growth over the coming months have prompted us to raise our oil price forecast," the bank said. The market will be awaiting weekly U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for a view of how tight crude and fuel supply remain. Six analysts polled by Reuters expect U.S. crude inventories to have fallen by 1.2 million barrels in the week to June 3 with gasoline stockpiles up by about 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, unchanged. On the demand side, China's latest COVID outbreak traced to a bar in Beijing has raised fears of a new phase of lockdowns just as restrictions in the country were being eased and fuel demand was expected to firm. The Chinese capital's most populous district, Chaoyang, kicked off a three-day mass testing campaign among its roughly 3.5 million residents on Monday. About 10,000 close contacts of the bar's patrons have been identified, and their residential buildings put under lockdown.] Looking ahead, oil prices may face pressure if the U.S. Federal Reserve surprises markets with a higher-than-expected interest rate hike to tame inflation when it meets on June 14-15.

Oil and Gas Prices To Rise Across The Board, Fitch Ratings Says - American credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has increased its short- and medium-term oil price assumptions, reflecting the increasing number of buyers boycotting imports from Russia. Fitch has increased its Brent and WTI price assumptions for 2022-2024 by $5 per barrel (bbl) with the Brent price for 2022 rising to $105 per bbl, while the prices for 2023 and 2024 rose to $85 and $65 respectively. Prices for 2025 and the long term remain flat at $53 per bbl. The $5 boost to price assumptions lifts WTI for 2022 up to $100 per barrel while 2023 and 2024 prices rise to $81 and $62, respectively. WTI prices, like Brent, will for now remain flat for 2025 and the long term. Global oil prices will be underpinned by the need to redirect trading flows as a growing number of countries ban Russian oil, including the most recent agreement by the EU to embargo Russian seaborne exports of oil and oil products. Oil delivered from Russia into the EU by pipeline is temporarily exempted from the ban to allow landlocked countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic extra time to substitute Russian imports with oil and products from other sources. The agreement, part of the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, bans purchases of Russian seaborne oil and oil products or about 4 MMbpd – two-thirds of Russian imports into the EU. Germany and Poland pledged to end Russian pipeline imports by the end of 2022 with the agreement ultimately covering 90 percent of all Russian oil and products imports into the bloc. This ban will have a significant impact on global oil trade flows, with about 30 percent of EU’s imports needing replacement from other regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and the US. However, Fitch believes that redirecting all Russian oil and product volumes may not be possible due to infrastructural limitations, buyers’ self-restrictions, and logistical complications. As a result, the company believes that about 2 MMbpd to 3 MMbpd of Russia’s oil exports, or about a quarter of the country’s oil production, may disappear from the global market by the end of 2022.Fitch stated that oil demand could exceed 100 MMbdp in 2H22, provided the pandemic remains mostly under control, and improve further in 2023, exceeding the prepandemic oil consumption recorded in 2019. This means that demand will increase by about 2MMbpd in both 2022 and 2023.

Oil Falls on Signs of More Energy Legislation -Oil’s rally evaporated amid signals that Democrats are considering more energy legislation as they and the White House face increasing pressure to curb US energy costs and inflation. West Texas Intermediate erased all of its gains late in the session to settle below $119 a barrel. US President Biden has not ruled out an excess profit tax for oil companies, Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the National Economic Council, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is planning to propose a surtax that would mean companies face as much as 42% federal taxes depending on their profit margin, according to people briefed on the proposal. “Energy traders are bracing for some type of action to come from the Biden administration to help Americans at the pump, even if it will have little long-term effect,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. The news comes after Biden announced he will travel to Saudi Arabia next month and will discuss energy production, according to US National Security Counsel Coordinator John Kirby. The diplomacy efforts will come at a time of heightened risk to the global economy from decades-high inflation and record energy costs. Wall Street started the week on the back foot as traders price in steep increases in Federal Reserve interest rates. Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia comes after the US has repeatedly asked OPEC to pump more crude to help tame rising gasoline prices and the hottest inflation in decades. US retail gasoline recently hit a national average of $5 a gallon. Meanwhile, Russia’s war in Ukraine has made the crude and fuels markets even tighter, with the WTI benchmark soaring more than 60% this year. Several Wall Street banks are expecting further gains in the coming months. WTI for July delivery fell $2.00 to settle at $118.93 a barrel in New York. Brent for August settlement fell $1.10 to settle at $121.17 a barrel. Some Asian buyers have been snapping up Middle Eastern oil earlier than usual in the physical market, in a sign of robust demand. The spot buying activity, which normally picks up pace after the release of official selling prices, started even before Iraq, Kuwait and Iran had made their announcements. Yet demand risks still persist in the market as producer group OPEC said it sees oil demand growth halving next year. While crude has experienced a strong rebound, it could be derailed by inflationary pressures, virus outbreaks and the economic fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Oil Falls After IEA Forecasts Balanced Market This Year -- Oil futures eroded further in early morning trade Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted the global oil market is likely to rebalance in the second half of the year driven by slowing demand growth and accelerated gains in non-OPEC oil supplies that should partially offset the loss of Russian barrels. Oil's move lower also comes ahead of perhaps the most consequential Federal Reserve rate decision in more than a decade set for 1 p.m. CDT, followed by a press-conference by the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later. Investors are quickly re-pricing a more aggressive increase to federal funds rates Wednesday and on July 27 as the central bank struggles to control the hottest inflation in over four decades. Near 6:30 a.m. CDT, July West Texas Intermediate futures dropped $0.63 to $118.36 barrel (bbl) and ICE August Brent futures were $0.40 lower at $120.69 bbl. For oil products, July ULSD futures slipped 0.30 cents to $4.3928 gallon, and July RBOB futures declined by 3.68 cents to $3.9570 gallon. U.S. dollar retreated from a 20-year high 105.342 settlement on Tuesday, trading 0.64% lower against the basket of foreign currencies. U.S. equity futures edged higher in overnight trade, following on from a session which consolidated a bear market for the S&P 500. In its monthly oil market outlook, IEA maintained its global demand projections this year at 99.4 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly below the pre-pandemic level of 99.7 million bpd. Within quarters, the agency boosted estimates for the thirst three months of the year to 99.3 million bpd, while shaving 400,000 bpd in the third and fourth quarters combined for the average growth of 100.1 million bpd. "Higher oil prices and a weaker economic outlook continue to temper our oil demand growth expectations." said IEA. Next year, however, a resurgent China is expected to boost non-OECD demand growth, offsetting a slowdown across industrialized countries. Global oil demand is forecasted to expand by 2.2 million bpd to 101.6 million bpd in 2023, which exceeds pre-pandemic levels. As demand rebounds, global oil production may struggle to keep pace with consumption next year, as tighter sanctions force Russia to shut in more wells and a number of producers bump up against capacity constraints. Meanwhile, global oil inventories increased in April for the first time in two years, increasing by 77 million bbl, with preliminary data for May showing another build of 6 million bbl. OECD industry stocks also rose, by 42.5 million bbl, translating into 1.42 million bpd increase, helped by government stock releases of nearly 1 million bpd. OECD industry stocks were nevertheless 290.3 million bbl below the 2017-2021 average. Also on Wednesday, oil traders positioned ahead of the release of U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration on tap for 9:30 a.m. CDT release. Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute reported commercial crude oil stocks gained 736,000 bbl last week versus calls for a draw of 1.4 million bbl. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate futures contract, dropped 1.067 million bbl. The data show gasoline stocks dropped 2.159 million bbl through June 10 versus an expected increase of 100,000 bbl. Distillate inventories added 234,000 bbl, below calls for an 800,000 bbl build.

WTI extended its losses after the EIA reported an unexpected crude inventory build and a slowing of gasoline demand Slows - Oil pries are modestly lower this morning, extending on yesterday's losses as traders weigh the impact of Fed tightening and Biden's letter to 'Big Oil' against China's solid overnight data."It appears that market participants got cold feet ahead of today's Fed decision, as a stronger tightening of monetary policy could have negative effects on oil demand," For now, while markets are calmly sitting on their hands ahead of the major event risk today at 1400ET, all algo's eyes will be on the inventory/demand data.API:

• Crude +763k (-1.2mm exp)
• Cushing -1.067mm
• Gasoline -2.159mm
• Distillates +234k

DOE

• Crude +1.96mm (-1.2mm exp)
• Cushing -826k
• Gasoline -710k (+100k exp)
• Distillates +725k (+800k exp)

US Crude stocks rose for the second straight week (a surprise vs expectations a draw) and distillates inventories also built again. Gasoline stocks fell very modestly...US crude production rose last week to 12mm b/d for the first time since May 2020...

Oil Prices Fall On Biggest Fed Rate Hike Since 1994 - In its largest hike since 1994, the Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, or 75 basis points, with oil prices responding by drawing down just under 1%. Wall Street had largely anticipated a 75-basis point hike, and oil prices were down 1% on Wednesday, ahead of the Fed meeting, regaining some ground by the time of the rate hike announcement. At 2:13 p.m. EST, just minutes after the Fed release, Brent was trading down 0.62% on the day, at $120.42. WTI was trading at $118.10, down 0.70%.The Fed also signaled that more rate hikes were to come, with another potential three-quarters of a percentage point hike in July. A half percentage point hike ispossible for September. In a Wednesday press release the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said “overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures”.“The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks,” the FOMC statement read. The rate hike follows a half-percentage point hike in May. Oil prices also settled lower on Tuesday in anticipation of an interest rate hike of 75 basis points. Earlier expectations were for a 50-basis-point hike. The shift in sentiment came after a strong consumer price index report for May raised expectations of a much higher rate hike.

Oil Prices Fall Over 2% as Fed Hikes Interest Rates (Reuters) -Oil prices fell more than $3 on Wednesday as markets worried about a fall in demand after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. Brent crude futures for August settled down $2.7, or 2.2%, at $118.51 a barrel, having fallen as low as $117.75. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July fell $3.62, or 3.04%, to $115.31 a barrel, after dropping to a low of $114.60. The biggest hike by the U.S. central bank since 1994 also sent dollar higher with the dollar index rising to its highest since 2002. A stronger greenback makes U.S. dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, curtailing demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production, which has been largely stagnant over the last few months, edged up 100,000 barrels per day last week to 12 million bpd, its highest level since April 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. The data also showed a build in U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories, while gasoline posted a surprise drawdown on the back of the summer driving season. Drivers around the world were tolerating record-high prices for road fuels, data showed. The European Central Bank promised fresh support and a new tool on Wednesday to temper a market rout that has fanned fears of a new debt crisis on the euro area's southern rim but appears to have disappointed investors looking for bolder steps. Adding to demand woes, China's latest COVID outbreak has raised fears of a new phase of lockdowns. Higher oil prices and weakening economic forecasts are dimming futures demand prospects, the International Energy Agency said. But persistent concerns about tight supply meant oil prices were still holding near $120 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, are struggling to reach their monthly crude production quotas, recently hit by a political crisis that has reduced Libya's output. "Because OPEC production is still falling noticeably short of the announced level, this would result in a supply deficit of around 1.5 million barrels per day on the oil market in the second half of the year,"

Oil Nosedives on Fed Inflation Actions -Oil fell the most in three months as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on his determination to curb the hottest inflation in decades with more aggressive rate hikes. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $109.56, shedding 6.8%, the biggest daily drop since March. Powell this week openly endorsed for the first time raising interest rates well into restrictive territory, a strategy that’s often resulted in an economic downturn and could blunt energy consumption. On Friday he reiterated that the Fed is focused on returning inflation to its 2% target. “All the headlines seem to have turned bearish for oil and that could see further technical selling target the psychological $100 a barrel level,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. “Once this move lower is complete, oil should stabilize and trade comfortably above the $100 a barrel level as potential disruptions from either further sanctions on Russia oil or hurricane season will keep supplies at dangerously low levels,” he said. Fears that rising interest rates and a slowdown in economic growth will lead to demand destruction have gripped the market but in the long run, supplies still look tight, market participants said. “I don’t think the selloff will continue as we have major supply shortfalls such as in non-OPEC non-US production and OPEC spare capacity; fundamentals for energy remain bullish and we recommend buying the dips,” Christyan Malek JPMorgan Global Head of Energy Strategy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded global price increases and helped to drive up the cost of everything from food to fuels. US retail gasoline prices have repeatedly broken records and the national average recently topped $5 a gallon. The White House is weighing limits on fuel exports to try to alleviate the pain at the pump. Crude is still up more than 50% this year as rebounding demand combined with upended trade flows following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to squeeze the market. All commodity price moves have become more extreme as market liquidity has slumped and if crude comes under Western secondary sanctions oil could spike sharply higher, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a report. WTI for July delivery fell $8.03 to end the session at $109.56 a barrel. Brent for August settlement lost $6.69 to settle at $113.12 a barrel. As the war in Ukraine continues, the focus remains on the extent to which Russian oil flows will be altered. On Friday, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said throughput at the nation’s refineries could fall 10% this year.

Oil prices fall after rate hikes, but tight supply limited losses Oil prices erased early gains to fall to two-week lows on Thursday on the back of inflation concerns highlighted by interest rate hikes in the United States, Britain and Switzerland, though tight oil supply limited losses. Brent crude futures were down $1.02, or 0.9%, to $117.49 a barrel by 1330 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.17 to $114.14, off 1%. Prices slipped more than 2% overnight after the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 0.75%, the biggest hike since 1994. On Thursday, European stocks tumbled after a surprise rate hike from Swiss National Bank. This was followed by a rate hike by the Bank of England. "Concerns about global inflation are growing. As a result, the dollar is stronger and European equities are falling, bringing oil down with them," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. "This is why oil buyers are currently on the back foot but since supply issues are still very much present, I believe that the move lower, which started on Tuesday, will not be a prolonged one." Libyan oil output has collapsed to 100,000-150,000 barrels per day (bpd), a fraction of the 1.2 million bpd seen last year. That is hitting already-tight supply, while the International Energy Agency said it expects demand to rise further in 2023, growing by more than 2% to a record 101.6 million bpd. Optimism that China's oil demand will rebound as it eases COVID-19 restrictions is also supporting the price outlook. "Looking into next year, there is a clear deficit in supply. While a recession could yet come along to change this, the current set-up remains bullish for the oil price and oil stocks," Bernstein analysts said in a note. US crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell in the week through June 10, the Energy Information Administration said. Still, Bernstein estimated global inventory levels at 48 days of demand cover, below the long-term average of 55 days.

WTI Advances as USD Retreats Amid EU Monetary Tightening -- Oil futures nearest delivery reversed higher in afternoon trade Thursday, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark above $117 barrel (bbl) helped by a sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index after a number of European central banks raised interest rates Thursday in an attempt to control inflation that is forecast to climb higher as European Union sanctions on Russian oil and product exports come into full effect later this year. Eurozone inflation in May hit its highest level since the creation of the euro currency in 1999, stoked by a record run-up in energy and food prices in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Fueled initially by soaring energy prices, inflation has broadened out to key consumer items such as shelter and services with double-digit readings in parts of the continent. For comparison, consumer prices in Estonia surged 19% year-on-year in May, in Czech Republic by 14.2%, and Bulgaria by 14.4%. It's worth noting that these countries are highly dependent of Russian oil and gas imports. Forecasts are not looking great either as energy prices across the 19-nation economic bloc are unlikely to moderate anytime soon amid unprecedented sanctions against Russian exports of oil and petroleum products. The EU embargo on Russian oil shipments is yet to come into full effect, doing so on Dec. 5, with a ban on petroleum product imports taking full effect on Feb. 5, 2023. While addressing the question over how high oil can go this year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said he wouldn't rule out $150 bbl oil by the end of the year. Faced with these headwinds to the collective economy, the European Commission lowered its growth forecast to 2.7% this year from the 4% estimated this winter. Hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted interest rates by 75 basis points, the most in almost three decades, the Swiss National Bank and the National Bank of Hungary jacked up their lending rates by a higher-than-expected margin, sending shockwaves through the market. The Bank of Switzerland raised rates to -0.25% from -0.75%, while Bank of Hungary lifted its one-week deposit rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% also to tame stubbornly rising inflation now running in double digits. In the physical market, Russian crude output is seen rising in July to pre-war levels, according to Novak. "Actually, we are very close to restoring the levels of February." He noted, however, that Russia's crude exports will slip slightly this month as domestic refining activity rises. Russia's oil dropped by almost 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April as a result of reduced export demand since its invasion of Ukraine in February. Fed officials also markedly cut their outlook for 2022 economic growth, now anticipating a 1.7% expansion in U.S. gross domestic product compared with its 2.8% outlook in March. That outlook might be too rosy, with Atlanta's Federal Reserve Bank's GDPNow tracker now showing expectations for no growth in the second quarter, down from 0.9% expected growth on June 8, while following a 1.5% contraction for the first quarter. At settlement, NYMEX July West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $2.28 to $117.59 bbl and ICE August Brent crude gained $1.30 to $119.81 bbl. NYMEX July RBOB futures rallied 6.16 cents to $3.9558 gallon and July ULSD futures added 2.43 cents to $4.5713 gallon.

Oil slumps 6%, snaps seven week winning streak Oil prices tumbled about 6% to a four-week low on Friday on worries that interest rate hikes by major central banks could slow the global economy and cut demand for energy. Also pressuring prices, the U.S. dollar this week rose to its highest level since December 2002 against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Brent futures fell $6.69, or 5.6%, to settle at $113.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $8.03, or 6.8%, to settle at $109.56. That was the lowest close for Brent since May 20 and the lowest for WTI since May 12. It was also the biggest daily percentage decline for Brent since early May and the biggest for WTI since late March. For the week, Brent futures declined for the first time in five weeks, while WTI dropped for the first time in eight weeks. There will be no U.S. trading on Monday, the Juneteenth holiday. "Crude prices tumbled as the dollar rallied, Russia signaled oil exports should increase, and as global recession fears grow," Global central bankers who quickly loosened monetary policy during the pandemic to avoid a recession, are now tightening to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve this week hiked U.S. rates by the most in more than a quarter of a century. "With the central banks making pretty substantial moves to limit growth via interest rate hikes and monetary tightening is showing up here in the petroleum complex," With the Fed expected to keep raising interest rates, open interest in WTI futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell on Thursday to its lowest level since May 2016 as investors cut back on risky assets. U.S. gasoline and diesel futures also slid over 4% on worries high pump prices will reduce demand. Automobile group AAA said the price of diesel at the pump hit a record high $5.798 per gallon on Friday, while the price of gasoline hit a record high of $5.016 earlier in the week. U.S. energy firms this week added just four oil rigs as President Joe Biden slammed producers for profiting from sky-high prices instead of doing more to boost output. Even as his administration wants Saudi Arabia to produce more oil, Biden said he was not going to have a bilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia's de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman during his trip to the region next month, and that he was only seeing the Saudi crown prince as part of a broader "international meeting." Russia, meanwhile, expects its oil exports to increase in 2022 despite Western sanctions and a European embargo, the Russian deputy energy minister said on Friday, according to Tass news agency. The market's turbulence has certainly increased since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russian gas flows to Europe fell short of demand on Friday as an early heat wave in the south boosted demand for air conditioning. The European Union's executive body recommended that Ukraine and Moldova become candidates for membership in the world's largest trading bloc. An oil tanker chartered by Italy's Eni SpA will soon depart Venezuela with first cargo in two years to Europe.

Crudes Notch 9% Weekly Loss as Russian Oil Output Rebounds -- Oil futures plummeted in afternoon trade Friday, with all petroleum contracts posting their first weekly loss since late April amid signs of a tentative rebound in Russian oil production supported by strong demand from Asian and European buyers, while ongoing concerns over demand destruction in the United States linked to surging energy prices and aggressive monetary tightening from the Federal Open Market Committee this week further weighted on the oil complex. Investors navigated a host of downside risks to the oil market this week, including a historic rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve that sharply raised risk of a recession, signs of slowing demand across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries in Europe, and a surprise recovery in Russian oil production that is reportedly climbing to its pre-invasion level despite Western sanctions. Russia's crude production rose 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, according to the country's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, which lifted daily output close to 11 million bpd. "There are reasons to believe that we will continue raising production in July," added Novak. One reason behind the resiliency is increased crude exports to Asian buyers, including India and China that now take more than half of all Russian oil exports, with a steady stream of tankers heading around Europe and through the Suez Canal from the Baltic and Arctic seas, according to Bloomberg estimates. India has moved from being an insignificant buyer of Russian crude to the second-biggest destination for its shipments, behind only China. Almost 860,000 bpd of crude were loaded onto tankers at Russia's western export terminals in the week to June 10 before heading to destinations in Asia. And the figure will almost certainly be revised higher once destinations become apparent for almost 210,000 bpd that are on vessels yet to show a final discharge point. Nonetheless, Russian oil output is set to decline by 18% -- from 11.3 million bpd in the first quarter to 9.3 million bpd in the final quarter of 2023 as a result of an EU embargo on both crude oil and refined product imports, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week. The European Union has agreed to ban Russian seaborne oil imports, but this won't take full effect until December. In the meantime, European refiners, shippers, and traders continue dealing with Russian oil, limiting the impact on the overall level of shipments. U.S. retail data for May showed consumer spending is already softening, declining for the first time in five months as purchases for autos and electronics plunged, suggesting aggregate demand is finally moderating. As price pressures become more entrenched in the economy, spending will likely ebb as they outpace earnings, with higher prices compounded by climbing interest rates. At settlement, NYMEX July West Texas Intermediate futures declined $8.03 to $109.56 per barrel (bbl), and ICE August Brent crude fell $6.69 to $113.12 bbl. NYMEX July RBOB futures fell 16.28 cents to $3.7930 gallon, and July ULSD futures erased 23.15 cents in value with a $4.3398 gallon settlement.

Somalia pushed closer to famine by US/NATO sanctions on Russia, international speculation and drought -Last week, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia Adam Abdel Mawla warned that Somalia was “on the brink of a deadly famine that could kill hundreds of thousands.” He said that 213,000 people face starvation by next September as global food prices hover near record highs and drought worsens. The price of imported foodstuffs in Somalia has reached record levels, jumping by up to 160 percent. The price of a kilo of rice has more than doubled, rising from $0.75 to $2, while three litres of cooking oil has gone from $4.50 to $9.50, making it impossible for people in one of the world’s poorest countries—its GDP is just $7 billion, and more than 70 percent of the population live on less than $1.90 a day—to feed themselves and their families. Mawla said that some 7.1 million of the country’s 16 million population face catastrophic levels of food insecurity and disease. Nearly one third of the country’s population are hungry. About 1.5 million children under five are suffering from acute malnutrition. At least 448 children have died since January. Many more are malnourished, with scaly skin and hair that has lost its natural colour, while others are sick with illnesses such as measles and cholera. These appalling numbers are nearly three times the levels expected just two months ago, according to a joint statement issued by the various UN humanitarian agencies: the World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). This latest disaster to affect the war-torn country comes 11 years after the famine of 2011 fuelled by soaring food prices in 2008 that killed around 250,000 people in Somalia, half of whom were children under the age of six. Now once again, the Somali people are the collateral damage of the crisis of the global economic system. Skyrocketing food, fertiliser and fuel prices have been driven by the billions of dollars poured into the world’s stock markets, the failure of governments around the world to pursue a coronavirus elimination policy and thereby prolonging the pandemic and disrupting food supply chains, and the US/NATO sanctions on Russia that have included banning the country from the SWIFT money transfer system.

Iran Says Nuclear Deal Remains "Possible" As Latest Technical Advances Still "Reversible" -- Within a mere months ago there were high hopes that Iran and global signatories to the 2015 JCPOA were wrapping up a restored nuclear deal. There was even talk that a finalized agreement was 'imminent' - but now just weeks after some of these optimistic headlines at a moment Washington scrambles to tap more global oil supply amid efforts to punish Russia with Europe's partial oil embargo, a 'fatal blow' may have been struck.At the moment, Iran and the West appear more distrustful of each other than ever, and the Vienna process is already appearing like a distant memory, with Iran's foreign ministry now affirming that the Islamic Republic has significantly furthered measures in breach of its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.Last week Iran removed at least 27 monitoring cameras at nuclear facilities, according to recent statements by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi. The UN nuclear watchdog chief warned this could deliver a "fatal blow" to efforts at reviving the JCPOA. Additionally Iran announced plans to add more centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility, south of Tehran.There's consensus among Iran watchers in the West that the country currently has enriched enough uranium of to 60% purity to be able to shortly bring it up to weapons-grade levels of 90% if Tehran chose to do so. 90% purity must be attained to produce a nuclear weapon. Experts say Iran likely is close enough to produce one bomb in a short time frame if it set out.Despite these developments, Iran says it has not given up, with a fresh Monday statement from its foreign ministry emphasizing all measures it's thus far taken to roll back commitments based on the original deal are "reversible"."If the agreement is finalized in Vienna tomorrow, all the measures carried out by Iran are technically reversible," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said as cited in AFP.It appears Tehran is attempting to push back against the IAEA's rhetoric of a "fatal blow" in shutting off the cameras. The argument of Iranian officials, however, remains that the cameras in question were never part of its original commitments:Iran "is fully honoring its co mmitments under the safeguards agreement," Khatibzadeh said, adding that the country has only "stopped some of the voluntary measures."Some 40 IAEA monitoring cameras are reported still in place across various sensitive facilities.

With No Nuclear Deal In Sight, U.S. Slaps Extra Sanctions On Iran - With no nuclear deal with Iran in sight, the United States Treasury has slapped additional sanctions on companies based in Iran, China and the UAE for enabling the export of Iran’s petrochemicals. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) implemented new sanctions on what it called “a network of Iranian petrochemical producers” and “front companies” in China and the UAE that support Iranian petrochemical exports abroad. “This network helps effectuate international transactions and evade sanctions, supporting the sale of Iranian petrochemical products to customers in the PRC and the rest of East Asia,” according to a statement from the Treasury Department. Specifically, the Treasury Department said that the network was facilitating the sale of “hundreds of millions of dollars” in petrochemicals from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to foreign customers, including in China. The Iran-based companies sanctioned in this latest round include Marun Petrochemical Company, Kharg Petrochemical Company Limited, and Fanavaran Petrochemical Company. “Front companies” listed include Hong Kong-based Keen Well International Limited and Teamford Enterprises Limited. The list also includes UAE-based GX Shipping FZE, which is accused of concealing the source of Iranian petrochemicals, along with Future Gate Fuel and Petrochemical Trading LLC, Sky Zone Trading FZE, and Youchem General Trading FZE. The sanctions come as talks to return to the nuclear deal, which U.S. President Donald Trump revoked in 2018, have stalled. “The United States is pursuing the path of meaningful diplomacy to achieve a mutual return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Absent a deal, we will continue to use our sanctions authorities to limit exports of petroleum, petroleum products, and petrochemical products from Iran,” Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson said. “The United States will continue to expose the networks Iran uses to conceal sanctions evasion activities.”

Israel makes dramatic upgrades to military plans to attack Iran - The Jerusalem Post -In face of Iran’s continued development of a nuclear capability, the Israeli Air Force has developed a new capability to be able to fly its F-35 stealth fighter jets from Israel to the Islamic Republic without requiring mid-air refueling. The development is a boost to IAF capabilities and comes as the Israeli military has upped its preparations for a future strike against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In addition, the IAF recently integrated a new one-ton bomb into the arsenal of weapons used by the F-35s (known in the IAF as the “Adir”) that can be carried inside the plane’s internal weapons compartment without jeopardizing its stealth radar signature.The bomb – made by Rafael Advanced Weapons Systems - is said to be autonomous and protected against jamming and electronic warfare systems. The bomb was recently used in a series of IAF tests, the results of which were presented to Defense Minister Benny Gantz. The IAF has held four large-scale drills simulating attacks against Iran over the last month. The first drill included confronting Iranian radar and detection systems, like those which protect its nuclear installations. The second included simulating long-range combat flights – in this case to destinations in Europe. The other drills included defensive measures against cyber weapons and electronic warfare systems, means that could be used by Iran to undermine an Israeli military operation. News of the progress in military preparedness came just a day after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel’s Iran strategy has changed in the last year, and it is “acting against the head... and not just its arms, as we had in recent years.”

Israel Urges All Citizens To Evacuate Istanbul Immediately, Citing Iranian 'Revenge' Plot -- Israel has issued an abrupt and highly unusual alert to its citizens traveling or working in Turkey, warning all Israelis to evacuate the capital Istanbul immediately. Officials have said intelligence reports suggest a possible Iranian kidnap or murder plot of its nationals potentially in progress."Israel’s Counter-Terrorism Bureau has raised its alert level for Istanbul to the highest possible level, calling on any Israelis in the city to leave immediately or risk their lives," The Times of Israel writes of the Monday warning. Israelis are further being advised to avoid travel in other parts of Turkey as well.The heightened alert message came hours following Foreign Minister Yair Lapid informing a meeting of government ministers that there is a "real and immediate" threat to Israelis in Istanbul in particular, and Turkey in general.A written statement from Israel's National Security Council (NSC) said "Two weeks ago a travel warning to Turkey was raised, after defense officials raised fears of Iranian attempts to harm Israeli targets around the world, especially in Turkey."The latest raising of the alert level to a "4" means Israel has designated its "danger" level for Turkey as on par with Afghanistan, Iran, Burkina Faso, or other official 'enemy' states or war-torn regions.The NSC statement further said that "given the continued threat and Iranian intentions to hurt Israelis in Turkey, especially Istanbul, cranking up a notch" - to explain the heightened state of alert. The new alert is being widely viewed as in relation to last month's assassination of Revolutionary Guard colonel Sayad Khodai, which Tehran has blamed on Israeli intelligence and its agents inside Iran. The slain IRGC officer was reportedly a commander in the elite Quds Force, which is the foreign intelligence wing of the IRGC. Israeli media is claiming that he had "planned attacks on Jews and Israelis worldwide."

Pakistan hikes fuel prices by 29% to secure IMF funding - Pakistan’s government has hiked fuel prices by up to 29%, removing fuel subsidies in an attempt to trim the fiscal deficit and secure critical support from the IMF for the cash-strapped economy. This is the third cut in fuel subsidies by the government headed by PM Shehbaz Sharif in about 20 days. The new prices came into effect from Wednesday midnight and showed a massive hike of Rs 24 per litre in petrol prices and Rs 59. 16 per litre of high-speed diesel (HSD) – the two products used by everyone directly or indirectly, finance minister Miftah Ismail said. The latest rise came on top of an already Rs 60 increase in the prices of petroleum since May 25. The new petrol price has been fixed at Rs 233. 89 per litre, HSD at Rs 263. 31 per litre and kerosene oil at Rs 211. 47 per litre. He said the prices of all products had now been brought to their purchase price and the element of subsidy or price differential claim had been eliminated. “There is no more government loss on the sale of petroleum products,” he said, hoping to conclude an agreement with the IMF for reviving loan support. PM Sharif on Thursday defended the unpopular moves, saying that the government was “left with no choice” because of “those who struck the worst ever deal” with the IMF. The finance minister also blamed the previous Imran Khan government for making a faulty agreement with the IMF that had tied the hands of the incumbent and forced it to increase oil prices to put the economy on the right track. “If we don't increase oil prices, the country could face a default,” he said, admitting that the middle class would suffer from the petrol price hike.

Pursuing India’s Multi-Aligned Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World: Time for a Sister Souljah Moment? by Jerri-lynn Scofield - India’s minister for external affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar forcefully summarized India’s foreign policy at a security conference in Bratislava, Slovakia, earlier this month.Those remarks have been superseded by a firestorm of controversy throughout the Islamic world, accompanied by domestic Indian protests. These were triggered by offensive remarks made about The Prophet by the national spokesperson for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, Nupur Sharma, during a televised debate. Naveen Kumar, the BJP’s chief of its Delhi media unit, also tweeted further incendiary remarks.The fallout from this issue threatens to deflect – although will likely not derail outright – the multi-alignment foreign policy course set by Jaishankar. Separately, the United States has issued another report condemning India’s record on religious freedom – and threatening further possible repercussions. India continues to chart an independent policy of multi-alignment in its foreign policy, in spite of pressure from Western diplomats to adopt economic sanctions against Russia. In his Bratislava remarks Jaishankar picked up on familiar themes. First, he rejected outright the premise that India should bow to Western pressure and curtail its economic relations with Moscow, else it might face the prospect of a lack of Western support if Indian relations with China further deteriorate to open hostilities at some time in the future. Permit me to quote extensively from The Wire’s report on Jaishankar’s Bratislava remarks,‘Europe Has to Grow Out of Mindset That Its Problems Are World’s Problems’: Jaishankar.India has a difficult relationship with China but it is perfectly capable of managing it, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said on Friday, rejecting the European construct that New Delhi’s position on Ukraine could impact global support to it if its problems with Beijing increases.In an interactive session at a conference in the Slovakian capital Bratislava, Jaishankar also said that the “Chinese do not need a precedent somewhere else on how to engage us or not engage us or be difficult with us or not be difficult with us.” ….The strong comments by Jaishankar came amid persistent efforts by the European countries to convince India to take a tough position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the argument that New Delhi may face a similar challenge from China in the future. Jaishankar was asked why he thinks anyone will help New Delhi in case of a problem with China after it did not help others for Ukraine. In respnse to that query, Jaishnkar chided European diplomats for continuing to view the current state of the world through an exclusively European-focused lens. Per The Wire:“Somewhere Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems. That if it is you, it’s yours, if it is me it is ours. I see reflections of that,” he said.“There is a linkage today which is being made. A linkage between China and India and what’s happening in Ukraine. China and India happened way before anything happened in Ukraine. The Chinese do not need a precedent somewhere else on how to engage us or not engage us or be difficult with us or not be difficult with us,” he said.

China economy: May retail, industrial production, fixed asset investment — China released economic data for May that topped muted expectations for a month hampered by Covid controls.Industrial production rose mildly by 0.7% in May from a year ago, versus an expected 0.7% drop, according to analysts polled by Reuters. In April, industrial production unexpectedly fell, down by 2.9% year-on-year.Retail sales fell less than expected, down by 6.7% in May from a year ago. Retail sales were estimated to have declined by 7.1% in May from a year ago, according to the Reuters poll. In April, retail sales fell by 11.1% from a year ago. Fixed asset investment for the January to May period rose by 6.2%, topping expectations of 6% growth.China's National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement that the economy "showed a good momentum of recovery" in May, "with negative effects from Covid-19 pandemic gradually overcome and major indicators improved marginally.""However, we must be aware that the international environment is to be even more complicated and grim, and the domestic economy is still facing difficulties and challenges for recovery," the bureau said.New energy vehicles, which include hybrid and battery-powered cars, have seen sales surge in China despite a slump in the overall car market. Pictured here is an unnamed new energy vehicle factory in Jiangsu province on June 13, 2022.China's exports accelerated in May to a better-than-expected 16.9% increase from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms. Imports also rose by a greater-than-expected 4.1%.Shanghai and Beijing, China's two largest cities by gross domestic product, have both had to reinstate tighter Covid controls this month after persistent spikes in Covid cases.Shanghai had locked down in April and May, with only some major businesses operating. The city began to fully reopen on June 1.For about a month in May, Beijing had told people in its biggest business district to work from home, while restaurants across the capital could only operate on a takeout or delivery basis. Most restaurants in Beijing were allowed to resume in-store dining in early June and employees could return to work, but schools have delayed resuming in-person classes.The uncertainty, especially about future income, has weighed on consumer spending. The unemployment rate in China's 31 largest cities surpassed 2020 highs to reach 6.7% in April — the highest on record going back to 2018. That rate rose further in May to 6.9%, while the overall unemployment rate in cities ticked lower to 5.9%.The unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 rose further to 18.4% in May, up from 18.2% in April.

Japan Starting to Crack as Yen Tumbles With Stocks and Bonds-- With the yen at a 24-year low, Tokyo stocks down the most since March and bond yields hitting its ceiling, the Bank of Japan is under duress having to defend a policy the rest of the world is quickly moving on from. In his clearest warning yet on the yen’s weakness, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, 77, said Monday that the recent abrupt slide of the currency is bad for the economy, while the central bank reinforced efforts to keep a lid on yields. Still, the yen fell 0.6% to 135.19 per dollar, the lowest since 1998. The downward pressure on the yen and slide in Japanese government bonds was triggered by a new wave of selling in global debt markets, led by Treasuries, as investors shocked by Friday’s US inflation data priced in aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and sought refuge in the dollar. “While Japanese authorities have stepped up warnings, there are few tools available to stop this momentum,” said Akira Moroga, manager of currency products at Aozora Bank in Tokyo. “The environment remains ripe for speculators to drive dollar-yen higher.” The yen fell almost 15% this year -- the worst-performing major currency -- as the BOJ keeps rates low to boost a sluggish economy while US yields surge on bets for continued Federal Reserve hikes.

Russian Forces Seize Center Of Last Holdout City In Luhansk Province --On Monday Ukraine's military acknowledged for the first time that Russian forces have taken over the center of the key city of Severodonetsk, considered the last major place of resistance and holdout before pro-Moscow forces take the whole of Luhansk province."In the Severodonetsk direction, the enemy, with the support of artillery, carried out assault operations in the city of Severodonetsk, had partial success, pushed our units away from the city center, the fighting continues," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced in a written statement.Within hours later, Ukraine's military said the Russian advance had been pushed back; however, it's clear to many US officials that the fall of Severodonetsk now looks imminent.Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that his troops are fighting for every meter: "The occupiers key tactical goal has not changed. They are pressing in Severodonetsk, severe fighting is going on there — literally every meter,” he said, also admitting a rapid Russian advance on other regional cities such as Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Sloviansk.But all eyes have been on Severodonetsk - given that its fall would mark a huge strategic success for Russian president Vladimir Putin, creating momentum for Russian forces to finally take the whole of Donbas, coming also just after a 'land bridge' had been established linking Western Russia to Donbas and Crimea.Russian forces have for weeks been slowly encircling Severodonetsk, which now looks inevitable. Ukraine's governor for the region, Sergiy Gaiday, called the developing situation "extremely difficult" - particularly after the Russian army obliterated a second bridge into the city over the weekend. He further cited constant bombardment and shelling from Russian lines.

Russian cluster munitions causing widespread civilian deaths in Kharkiv: Amnesty |Human rights group Amnesty International said on Monday they have documented 28 indiscriminate Russian strikes in Kharkiv, Ukraine, that have killed and injured hundreds of civilians, arguing the attacks constitute war crimes. Amnesty said civilians have been killed while queuing for humanitarian aid, walking by a playground, visiting loved ones’ graves and sitting outside their homes. “The continued use of such inaccurate explosive weapons in populated civilian areas, in the knowledge that they are repeatedly causing large numbers of civilian casualties, may even amount to directing attacks against the civilian population,” Amnesty concluded. The group called for institutions with jurisdiction to take “immediate steps” to collect and preserve evidence of the alleged war crimes, arguing that the International Criminal Court is the “most immediately viable forum” for the investigation. “Amnesty International calls for justice processes to be as comprehensive as possible, ensuring that all perpetrators are brought to justice through independent, impartial and fair trials for all crimes under international law,” the group said. Amnesty also called on the Ukrainian military to cease operating in residential neighborhoods to protect civilians. The group interviewed 160 people and investigated 41 strikes in the northeastern Ukrainian city over 14 days in April and May. Amnesty’s 44-page report offers chilling accounts of civilians who were killed, had limbs amputated or suffered serious injuries as Russia shelled the city for two months, before Moscow’s focus shifted to other regions of Ukraine.

 Raw Materials Fetch Premium Prices - While longer-term structural factors are at play, the effects of the war in Ukraine are felt in many ways – the one that is probably most pervasive in the daily lives of people around the world is rising prices. As Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes, Russia and Ukraine have a significant influence on the world economy due to their role as suppliers of a number of essential raw materials. These include fossil fuels, agricultural commodities as well as several metals.The latest OECD Economic Outlook states that the two countries together account for around 30 percent of world wheat exports, 15 percent of maize exports, 20 percent of mineral fertilizers and natural gas exports as well as 11 percent of oil exports. According to the report, global supply chains are additionally dependent on Russian and Ukrainian exports of precious metals.As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the prices of many of the commodities in question have risen sharply.This is particularly the case for coal and wheat, whose prices increased between 60 percent and 70 percent on average. The price surge is also significant for other important raw materials, such as gas and oil (from 25 percent to 55 percent) as well as metals such as nickel and platinum (between 21 percent and 47 percent).While exploding prices and supply disruptions have significant repercussions for many economies, emerging and developing countries dependent on grain deliveries are especially vulnerable to these changes as the current situation in Somalia shows.

Wikipedia appeals Russian court order to remove information about Ukraine invasion -Wikimedia Foundation, the owner of Wikipedia, has filed an appeal against a Russian court order that demanded the site remove information related to the invasion of Ukraine, stating that the removal would be a “violation of people’s rights to free expression and access to knowledge.” The nonprofit organization filed an appeal last week to challenge a Moscow court calling for the removal of several Wikipedia articles, mostly related to the invasion, fining them 5 million rubles, or about $65,000. The foundation challenged the appeal, saying that the information should be protected by freedom of expression. “The information at issue is fact-based and verified by volunteers who continuously edit and improve articles on the site; its removal would therefore constitute a violation of people’s rights to free expression and access to knowledge,” the organization said in a press release. The lower court’s decision states that the articles on the site are disinformation, “which poses risk of mass public disorder in Russia.”

The rich are fleeing from Russia, and more than 15,000 millionaires — 15% of the country's ultra-rich population — are expected to leave this year More than 15,000 millionaires are expected to leave Russia this year as the rich flee the country amid sweeping sanctions over the war in Ukraine, a report published on Monday said.The expected exodus accounts for 15% of Russia's millionaire pool, and it amounts to nearly three times the 5,500 millionaires who left Russia in 2019, according to the Henley Global Citizens Report. The report is based on information including official immigration data and real-estate purchases by millionaires.Russia is "hemorrhaging millionaires," wrote Andrew Amoils, the head of research at New World Wealth, which worked on the report with Henley & Partners, a residency and citizenship advisory firm in London."Affluent individuals have been emigrating from Russia in steadily rising numbers every year over the past decade, an early warning sign of the current problems the country is facing," Amoils added. "Historically, major country collapses have usually been preceded by an acceleration in emigration of wealthy people, who are often the first to leave as they have the means to do so."Russia was hit with sweeping sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, prompting some of its wealthiest people to leave. Some oligarchs have fled to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, where they have been snapping up real estate, The Observer reported in March.Overall, the United Arab Emirates has "become the focus of intense interest among affluent investors" and is expected to be the biggest winner as some 4,000 millionaires from around the world are expected to flock to the country in 2022 — a record for the city and a 208% jump over the net inflow of 1,300 in 2019, according to Amoils. The United Arab Emirates used to attract about 1,000 millionaires a year before the pandemic. Amoils attributed the country's popularity to its status as an international business hub as well as its competitive tax rates.

Trudeau tests positive for Covid-19 -— Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tested positive for Covid-19 for the second time, days after an in-person meeting with President Joe Biden.“I’ll be following public health guidelines and isolating. I feel okay, but that’s because I got my shots,” Trudeau said in a tweet Monday morning. The prime minister has been triple-vaccinated, having received a booster dose in January. Later that same month, he tested positive for Covid for the first time.The news comes just after Trudeau’s return from Los Angeles, where he spent much of last week meeting with leaders at the Summit of the Americas. He met with Biden on Thursday.Trudeau also met last week with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Argentine President Alberto Fernández, Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader and Google CEO Sundar Pichai.He returned to Ottawa on Saturday and had a personal day on Sunday.Trudeau had no events scheduled Monday on Parliament Hill, but he had planned to participate in an annual Liberal fundraiser in Ottawa this evening.

Meta, Google, and Twitter are set to face huge fines if they don't tackle deepfakes and fake accounts on their platforms -- The European Union is preparing to force tech companies to police manipulative accounts and content on their platforms or else face huge fines, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.The document seen by Reuters mandates signatories: "Adopt, reinforce and implement clear policies regarding impermissible manipulative behaviors and practices on their services, based on the latest evidence on the conducts and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) employed by malicious actors."This includes deepfakes — images and videos that have been altered using software — and fake accounts, according to Reuters.The document is an update to a voluntary regulatory code on disinformation which was first introduced in 2018.The updated version will turn the code into a co-regulation scheme, which means both regulators and signatories to the code will share responsibility for it, Reuters reports.Companies already listed as signatories on the code of practice include Facebook (now called Meta), Google, Twitter, and TikTok.Companies that fail to adhere to the code could face fines of up to 6% of global turnover, the document said per Reuters.For companies the size of Meta and Google, which posted annual revenues of $118 billion and $258 billion in 2021 respectively, that would translate to multi-billion dollar fines.The updated code is part of a wider European crackdown on how tech companies police their platforms.The EU agreed to pass a new piece of legislation called the Digital Services Act (DSA) in April, which regulates how Big Tech companies can harvest data, as well as how well they moderate their platforms for things like misinformation and hate speech."The DSA provides a legal backbone to the Code of Practice against disinformation — including heavy dissuasive sanctions," Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for the internal market and one of the driving forces behind the DSA, told Reuters in a statement.A spokesperson for Breton confirmed to Insider that violating the code will be seen as proof companies are not doing enough to mitigate risk on their platforms, and could therefore be exposed to the fines of up to 6% of annual turnover as outlined in the DSA.