FOMC Minutes "Purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term" -"Purposefully moving" towards a more restrictive policy. From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 20-21, 2022. Excerpt: In their assessment of the effects of policy actions and communications to date, participants concurred that the Committee's actions to raise expeditiously the target range for the federal funds rate demonstrated its resolve to lower inflation to 2 percent and to keep inflation expectations anchored at levels consistent with that longer-run goal. Participants noted that the Committee's commitment to restoring price stability, together with its purposeful policy actions and communications, had contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions over the past year that would likely help reduce inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand. Participants observed that this tightening had led to substantial increases in real interest rates across the maturity spectrum. Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. They noted also that inflation had not yet responded appreciably to policy tightening and that a significant reduction in inflation would likely lag that of aggregate demand. Participants observed that a period of real GDP growth below its trend rate, very likely accompanied by some softening in labor market conditions, was required. They agreed that, by moving its policy purposefully toward an appropriately restrictive stance, the Committee would help ensure that elevated inflation did not become entrenched and that inflation expectations did not become unanchored. These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.In light of the broad-based and unacceptably high level of inflation, the intermeeting news of higher-than-expected inflation, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants remarked that purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down inflation. Several participants observed that as policy moved into restrictive territory, risks would become more two-sided, reflecting the emergence of the downside risk that the cumulative restraint in aggregate demand would exceed what was required to bring inflation back to 2 percent. A few of these participants noted that this possibility was heightened by factors beyond the Committee's actions, including the tightening of monetary policy stances abroad and the weakening global economic outlook, that were also likely to restrain domestic economic activity in the period ahead.
The hidden dangers in the Fed's balance-sheet reduction The Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff is picking up steam after its monthly cap on unreplaced maturities doubled to $95 billion last month. Last week alone, it shed $37 billion of assets. As the central bank ramps up its effort to reduce its holdings — currently totalling more than $8.7 trillion — to a more manageable level, it gives rise to questions about how much runoff the banking system will tolerate and how potential regulatory changes might pave the wave to a smoother balance sheet reduction than in the past. The Fed has been steadfast in its commitment to tightening monetary policy until inflation abates, but it remains unclear if it can avoid a repeat of the September 2019 tightening cycle, when a scarcity of reserves forced the Fed to expand its balance sheet again. The threat is punctuated by last month's U.K. government debt crisis that forced the Bank of England to intervene in the bond market to avoid a financial catastrophe. "The trick is to keep banks safe while making no changes to balance sheet runoff unless inflation risks ease enough to allow a monetary policy shift," Derek Tang, co-founder of the Washington-based research firm Monetary Policy Analytics, said. "After all, the whole point of balance sheet tightening, along with rate hikes, is to make lending more costly." When the Fed reduces assets, such as Treasury and mortgage-backed securities — both of which it bought in large volumes to support the U.S. economy through the COVID-19 pandemic — it also reduces its liabilities. The bulk of the Fed's liabilities are deposits from member banks. Also known as reserves, these deposits are used by banks to protect themselves against losses and runs. They are also a preferred source of liquidity that can facilitate lending during periods of economic distress and to fund resolution plans should a bank fail. The last Fed tightening cycle, which began in 2015, was cut short by a sudden scarcity of reserves in September 2019. The event caused the secure overnight funds rate to surge above its target range and caused the Fed to begin buying assets once again. After that episode, the Fed created a new mechanism for providing liquidity known as the standing repurchase agreement facility. But since its debut in July 2021, only 14 institutions have signed up to be counterparties. Bill Nelson, executive vice president and chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, said the limited participation is tied to a belief among banks that doing so would be viewed in the same light as using the Fed's discount window. "Unfortunately, the Fed has not yet stated — as far as I know — that banks can plan on using the standing repo facility as a way to monetize their assets," Nelson said. "It's extraordinary, because the Fed has created this facility and they've made it clear that they intend for this to be something they don't want a stigma associated with. They want banks to feel free to use it. But banks can't plan on using it."
Fed still afraid of doing 'too little' on inflation - The Federal Reserve is still concerned that the cost of coming down too strongly on inflation is “likely outweighed” by the cost of failing to do enough. Minutes released yesterday (12 October) detailed the thought process behind the Fed's decision last month to make the third in a series of 0.75% rate hikes. Officials said they continue to remain committed to "purposefully" tightening monetary policy in the face of "broad-based and unacceptably high inflation". The minutes also show a Fed that is still surprised by the rate of rising prices, describing "higher-than-expected inflation", as well as emphasising the need to "purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term". The minutes said: "Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down inflation." Markets have continued to price in expectations that the central bank will bring another 0.75% hike in its November meeting. Most members of the Fed predict rates to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2022 and to peak at 4.6% next year. Nevertheless, a significant minority support a less aggressive approach, which may suggest a smaller 0.5% increase may be considered next month. Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor, said in a speech yesterday that she supported further large rate rises if price pressures continued to not let up. "If we do not see signs that inflation is moving down, my view continues to be that sizeable increases in the target range for the federal funds rate should remain on the table," she said. "However, if inflation starts to decline, I believe a slower pace of rate increases would be appropriate."
Top Fed Official Says Corporate Price Hikes Are Fueling Inflation - Progressives on Monday pointed to remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard acknowledging the role of corporate profiteering in exacerbating inflation to underscore their opposition to interest rate hikes and other monetary tightening that favors Big Business over workers. "The retail margin for motor vehicles sold at dealerships has increased by more than 180% since February 2020."While attributing high inflation to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Brainard—who was addressing a meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Chicago—asserted that "there is ample room for margin recompression to help reduce goods inflation" in the retail economy. "Retail margins have increased 20% since the onset of the pandemic, roughly double the 9% increase in average hourly earnings by employees in that sector," she noted. "In the auto sector, where the real inventory-to-sales ratio is 20% below its pre-pandemic level, the retail margin for motor vehicles sold at dealerships has increased by more than 180% since February 2020, 10 times the rise in average hourly earnings within that sector."Brainard's nod to what one observer called "the elephant in the room" was secondary to her insistence that monetary tightening in the form of higher interest rates is the best way to tackle inflation."It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down," she said. "In light of elevated global economic and financial uncertainty, moving forward deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity, employment, and inflation are adjusting to cumulative tightening in order to inform our assessments of the path of the policy rate."Noting that "the labor market's recovery from the pandemic-induced recession was a historic rebound," the progressive podcast "Pitchfork Economics" warned that "if the Fed keeps pursuing outdated, harmful solutions, they will push us into a longer, deeper recession with consequences that reverberate for years to come."Meanwhile on Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said that the central bank's number one priority is reducing inflation—even if monetary tightening costs people their jobs."Ultimately, inflation is the most important thing to get under control. That's job one," Evans argued during an interview on MSNBC. "Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future." Members of the Fed's board of governors are widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.75% for the fourth consecutive time when they meet next month.
Central Bank Myths Drag Down World Economy - The dogmatic obsession with and focus on fighting inflation in rich countries are pushing the world economy into recession, with many dire consequences, especially for poorer countries. This phobia is due to myths shared by most central bankers. The common narrative is that inflation hurts growth. Major central banks (CBs), the Bretton Woods institutions (BWIs) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) all insist inflation harms growth despite all evidence to the contrary. The myth is based on a few, very exceptional cases. “Once-in-a-generation inflation in the US and Europe could choke off global growth, with a global recession possible in 2023”, claimed the World Economic Forum Chief Economist’s Outlook under the headline, “Inflation Will Lead Inexorably To Recession”. The Atlantic recently warned, “Inflation Is Bad… raising the prospect of a period of economic stagnation or even a recession”. The Economist claims, “It hurts investment and makes most people poorer”. Without evidence, the narrative claims causation runs from inflation to growth, with inevitable “adverse” consequences. But serious economists have found no conclusive supporting evidence. World Bank chief economist Michael Bruno and William Easterly asked, “Is inflation harmful to growth?” With data from 31 countries for 1961-94, they concluded, “The ratio of fervent beliefs to tangible evidence seems unusually high on this topic, despite extensive previous research”. OECD evidence for 1961-2021 – Figures 1a & 1b – updates Bruno & Easterly, again contradicting the ‘standard narrative’ of major CBs, BWIs, BIS and others. The inflation-growth relationship is strongly positive when 1974-75 – severe oil spike recession years – are excluded. The relationship does not become negative even when 1974-75 are included. Also, the “Great Inflation” of 1965-82 did not harm growth. Hence, there is no empirical basis for setting a particular threshold, such as the now standard 2% inflation target – long acknowledged as “plucked from the air”! Another popular myth is that once inflation begins, it has an inherent tendency to accelerate. As inflation supposedly tends to speed up, not acting decisively to nip it in the bud is deemed dangerous. So, the IMF chief economist advises, “Don’t let inflation ‘genie’ out of the bottle”. Hence, inflation has to be ‘nipped in the bud’. But, in fact, OECD inflation has never exceeded 16% in the past six decades, including the 1970s’ oil shock years. Inflation does not accelerate easily, even when labour has more bargaining power, or wages are indexed to consumer prices – as in some countries.
Something Big Has Already Broken: Price Stability by Wolf Richter - There is a lot of tongue-wagging on Wall Street and in the financial media to the effect that the Federal Reserve will tighten – meaning hike rates and shed assets – until something breaks.But that’s kind of funny when you think about it. Because the biggest thing that the Federal Reserve is in charge of, the most crucial thing that underlies a healthy economy and a healthy labor market has already broken: price stability.It broke into tiny little pieces. Instead of price stability, we have raging inflation. And now the Fed is trying to fix it.But hedge fund gurus and bond kings and stock-fund apostles and other crybabies on Wall Street who don’t give a hoot about this raging consumer-price inflation because they’re rich and don’t mind having to pay a little extra for some stuff, but who’re losing their shirts because asset prices are skidding lower, and they do mind that, well, they’re on TV and on the internet and on Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal bemoaning the consequences of the end of free money.And they’re right: these asset prices have gone down in reaction to the Fed’s tightening policies this year that are beginning to reverse many years of money printing and interest rate repression.The years of QE and near-0% interest since 2008 have created the Everything Bubble, and now the Everything Bubble is deflating.And these hedge fund gurus and bond kings and stock-fund apostles and other crybabies on Wall Street are saying that things are already breaking, that markets are stressed, and that in x months, like in November, something big will break that will cause the Fed to pivot into cutting rates and restarting another money-printing binge.That’s what they want: They want the Fed to cut rates and restart QE as to re-inflate the Everything Bubble so that these folks can get even richer. They have big investments, and those investments have now soured, and they want the Fed to U-turn in order to bail out their investments.And they don’t give a hoot about this raging inflation because they’re rich and don’t even notice if they have to pay extra for consumer goods and services.And if something breaks, meaning if some portion of the market crashes somewhere, or rates blow out somewhere, say in the repo market like it did in late 2019, that no one outside the repo market even noticed, or if something even bigger breaks, they hope that the Fed would then cut rates and restart QE to re-inflate their asset prices.And in fact, they want something to break, they’re praying for something to break, they’re trying to scare markets so that something will break, in order to force the Fed into this pivot. The simple fact is this: stocks, bonds, the housing market, cryptos, etc., etc., they were all hyper-inflated by years of the Fed’s money printing and interest rate repression, that started in late 2008. And after a brief pause in 2017 through 2019, the Fed went hog-wild starting in March 2020 when it printed $5 trillion in two years and threw it at the markets. Since 2008, the Fed has printed $8 trillion and threw this money at the markets. And for most of the time since 2008, the Fed has repressed short-term interest rates to near 0%. Big institutional investors and speculators could borrow short-term in the repo market for near 0% interest. This was as close to free money as you could get, and they borrowed this nearly free money and speculated with it, and now the interest rate in the repo market is over 3%, and it may be over 4% by year end, and higher next year, and that’s a bitter pill to swallow if you’ve gotten fat after 14 years of free money.
The Fed Is Now Paying $500 Million To A Handful Of Banks Every Day, And Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem - Just over three months ago, on July 1, we were the first to point out a very inconvenient problem resulting from the Fed's shockingly rapid rate hikes and policy tightening: with the Fed Funds Rate at 1.75%, the US central bank was now paying out nearly a quarter billion in interest every day on its Reverse Repo Facility and on bank reserves parked at the Fed. Since then, the Fed has almost doubled the prevailing interest rate by 150bps (2x75bps) to 3.25%, and while there has been a modest decline in the total amount of reserves and reverse repos, which peaked at $6 trillion on Dec 31, 2021 and have since shrunk to $5.2 trillion...
Nomi Prins’ New Book: “No One Wanted to Call the Fed’s QE a Ponzi Scheme. But It Was.” - By Pam and Russ Martens - Wall Street veteran Nomi Prins’ new book is being released today with a title that should give every member of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees pause: Permanent Distortion: How the Financial Markets Abandoned the Real Economy Forever. The book does what neither of these Committees has done for the American people. It explains how the financial crash of 2008 unleashed an unbridled and unaccountable Fed as Wall Street’s permanent sugar daddy, distorting market functioning with its perpetual money spigot to the point that markets no longer function as a pricing mechanism or efficient allocator of capital but more along the lines of a Ponzi scheme for the rich. Prins writes:“Once central banks unleashed monetary policy to accommodate mega-banks, subsidize Wall Street financiers, and bolster global markets, the very idea of free and open markets and laissez-faire investing died. The threat of raising rates or ceasing to buy bonds could catalyze panic, instability, and chaos—so the threat was never issued. No one wanted to call the Fed’s QE a Ponzi scheme. But it was.”The disparity between the Fed’s money spigot to shore up Wall Street versus the real economy is succinctly captured by Prins as follows:“The amount of money created to buy securities under its ‘no-limit’ policy over the course of just a few months was staggering. On June 18, 2020, the Fed reported that the size of its book had expanded to $7.1 trillion…It was also nearly double the level it had been one year earlier. It was 60% greater than it had been at the height of the post-financial-crisis period. All that newly manufactured money turbo-boosted the stock market. This trading frenzy among institutional investors and a growing group of retail investors led Wall Street banks to smash earnings records in the third quarter of 2020. This was in stark contrast to abysmal unemployment figures still weighing on Main Street. It was incongruent with the fact that during 2020 the number of US corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level since 2009, with 630 filings…”The timing of the release of Prins’ book could not be more appropriate as signs mount of how entrenched corruption has distorted the world in which we live to the point that it increasingly feels like a bad sci-fi movie. The man who first hooked up the feeding tube from the Fed to the grifters on Wall Street, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, just yesterday received a Nobel Prize in economics. The former President of the United States, Donald Trump, who hammered the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, with demands to keep the punch bowl flowing, is under criminal investigation for stealing Top Secret government documents. The New York Fed has set up a second trading floor in Chicago near the S&P 500 futures market with not one member of the U.S. Congress curious as to why the New York Fed should have even one trading floor. And a year-long investigation of Fed officials for potentially engaging in insider trading continues.Prins brilliantly captures the insanity and mass hypnosis of regulators who have taken a hands-off approach to the Fed’s unlimited money spigot to the mega banks on Wall Street with indisputable facts and figures. She builds her case against the monetary policies of Bernanke and his successors (Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell) in the artful way that a master mason builds an exquisite rock wall — one carefully placed stone at a time. Prins writes: “By 2019, the total of assets held by the G3 central banks—the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan—hit $13.5 trillion. Concurrently, the global debt-to-GDP ratio had risen to 322%. That meant it took $3.22 of debt to support every $1 of economic growth…
Fed's Waller 'highly skeptical' of utility of a U.S. digital currency - Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller Friday methodically explained his opposition to the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency, taking aim at some arguments that his fellow board members had put forward in recent weeks.Speaking at a symposium sponsored by the Harvard National Security Journal in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on Friday, Waller said that though his views on CBDCs are "well known" he remained "highly skeptical of whether there is a compelling need for the Fed to create a digital currency.""Advocates for creating a U.S. CBDC often assert how it is important to the long-term status of the dollar, particularly if other major jurisdictions adopt a CBDC. I disagree," Waller said. "The underlying reasons for why the dollar is the dominant currency have little to do with technology, and I believe the introduction of a CBDC would not affect those underlying reasons."Waller, who was appointed to the Fed board by former President Donald Trump, went on to hypothesize what might happen to the dollar's role as the global reserve currency of choice if other countries adopted a CBDC and the U.S. did not, if the U.S. did develop a competing CBDC, or if nongovernmental intermediaries like banks issued stablecoins that came to dominate the currency markets. In all of those scenarios, he said, the factors that make the dollar attractive for holding value and conducting international business would remain largely unchanged, and the frictions that a CBDC might lessen could be achieved through other means."The dollar serves as a safe, stable, and dependable form of money around the world. It serves as a reliable common denominator for global trade and a dependable settlement instrument for cross-border payments," Waller said. "We should instead focus and debate the salient CBDC-related topics, like its effects on financial stability, payment system improvements and financial inclusion."Waller's comments come in opposition to remarks from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard in July, who said a CBDC would be a "natural evolution" of the payments system and could provide a disintermediation layer for the global stablecoin marketplace. Lawmakers like Rep. Jim Himes, D-Connecticut, have likewise been vocal advocates for the development of a digital dollar, and the White House's most recent digital-asset report cited a "natural use case" for a CBDC in the U.S. financial system.But Waller is far from alone as a skeptic of CBDCs. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkarisaid in August that a digital currency could be a threat to personal privacy, and congressional Republicans recently asked the Department of Justice to clarify whether Congress or the Administration has the power to establish a digital currency.
Fed's Bostic reveals trading violations; Powell opens probe -Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said his asset managers made trades that broke central bank rules, leading Chair Jerome Powell to open a probe in the latest chapter of an broader Fed ethics scandal.Bostic said in a statement Friday that he was not aware of the specific trades or timing of the transactions, which were made by a third-party manager in accounts where he did not have ability to direct trades. He detailed the transactions in corrected disclosure forms posted to the Atlanta Fed's website."I take very seriously my responsibility to be transparent about my financial transactions and to avoid any actual or perceived conflicts of interest," Bostic, 56, who has been president since 2017, said in the statement.He said that he had "come to learn, however, that while I did not have the ability to direct trades in these accounts, the transactions directed by third parties, not just the assets themselves, should have been listed on my annual financial disclosure forms." That included what he said were a "limited number" of trades that took place during Federal Open Market Committee blackout periods or financial stress periods.A Fed spokeswoman said Powell has asked the Board of Governors inspector general, the central bank's internal watchdog, to review Bostic's disclosures and "we look forward to the results of their work and will accept and take appropriate actions based on their findings."Comments from Fed Board ethics officials included in Bostic's corrected 2021 financial disclosures noted that:
- — Bostic omitted a substantial number of securities transactions from the disclosures that he previously filed.
- — He held more than $50,000 of Treasury funds in violation of then-applicable Board policy.
- — Bostic had extensive trading activity during FOMC trading blackout periods and during March-April 2020, which he explains was carried out by third-party financial advisors with investment discretion within managed account.
The Atlanta Fed's board of directors acknowledged the violations and accepted Bostic's explanation, chair Elizabeth Smith said in a statement. "My board colleagues and I have confidence in President Bostic's explanation that he did not seek to profit from any FOMC-related knowledge," she said.
There’s Lots of “Liquidity” in the Treasury Market, but at Higher Yields, in this Raging Inflation - By Wolf Richter -There is now a lot of handwringing on Wall Street and in the financial media about “liquidity” in the Treasury market. “Liquidity” means a gazillion things, but in this case, it probably means that there doesn’t seem to be a lot of appetite for buying, for example, 10-year Treasury securities at the current yield, and some of the auctions have seen less than stellar demand, as a lot of the big Treasury buyers have stepped away from the market, including large pension funds and life insurers, particularly in Japan. US banks have stopped adding to their $1 trillion in Treasury holdings. And the Fed is now reducing its $5.6 trillion in Treasury holdings by about $60 billion a month.So who’d want to buy a Treasury security with a longer maturity at 3% or 4% yield, when CPI inflation is over 8%, with lots of signs that inflation will prove to be dogged, will pop up again just after folks thought it had been vanquished, and will pulls head-fakes on everyone? That’s what inflation did last time it took off, which was in the 1970s and early 1980s. So now, Wall Street and the financial media are expecting a lot of demand for a 10-year Treasury that yields just 3.9%?There are buyers waiting for the 10-year yield to hit 4.5% before they buy. And once they’re satisfied, more buyers will emerge at 5%. And then once they’re satisfied, there will be more buyers at 5.5%, and once they’re satisfied, more buyers will emerge at 6%….There is a huge amount of “liquidity” out there, waiting to be deployed in longer-dated Treasuries, and that includes me, but not at today’s puny yields, given where inflation is today and where it may be in a few years, with the real 10-year yield today being -4.5%.Sure, if you scare investors out of their wits, they will buy 10-year Treasuries even if the yield is just 1%, because they know they’re going to get face value if they hold to maturity, which sounds like a tempting proposition when all heck is breaking loose.But when all heck is not breaking loose, the equation of yield and inflation matters. And that’s where we are today.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 8th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 9.1% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had picked up towards the end of Summer, but is now, off about 10% from 2019 like earlier in the year. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 6th. Movie ticket sales were at $88 million last week, down about 35% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). This data is through Oct 1st. The occupancy rate was down 2.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of September 30th, gasoline supplied was up 3.6% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020. This is only the 2nd week this year that gasoline supplied was above 2019 levels.
Biden’s scary invocation of nuclear ‘Armageddon’ - Generally, the right venue to warn that we face the biggest threat of Armageddon in 60 years wouldn’t seem to be a political fundraiser. But for whatever reason, that’s where President Biden on Thursday night decided to offer some of the scariest comments uttered by a U.S. president in decades. Speaking at a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee event, Biden said that for the “first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use of the nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going.” Biden has certainly shown himself capable of speaking unintentionally — or “getting over his skis,” to borrow a phrase — but he said a version of this warning not once, not twice, but three times.“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” he said at another point. “We’ve got a guy I know fairly well,” he added of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.” It’s valid to ask where these comments are coming from. Certainly, the nuclear saber-rattling from Putin is on a level not seen in many years, if ever, with Russia threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. Putin also is in a position he’s never been in, with the war in Ukraine going poorly and threatening to embarrass him and his country. Biden is serving notice that we shouldn’t treat this as a bluff.“There is no example since 1962 that comes even close to the concrete threats that Putin has been making,” said Paul D’Anieri, an expert at the University of California at Riverside on the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. “Similarly, the U.S. has never voiced anything like the current level of concern that a nuclear weapon might be used.”But why roll out this kind of talk at a political fundraiser? At the very least, that would risk playing into the idea that this is somehow about politics — exactly how, it’s not really clear — rather than a serious warning to the American people.
Biden Should "Back Off" Armageddon Language, Quickly Get Russians To Negotiating Table: Adm. Mullen - When it comes to debate and public discourse in the West and particularly in America over the war in Ukraine, it seems any high profile figure who advocates for de-escalation and negotiations immediately gets branded a "pro-Kremlin" stooge. This was of course on full display last week when Elon Musk dared to explore theoretical paths to a ceasefire with his "Ukraine-Russia Peace Poll" on Twitter. He had emphasized in follow-up comments to detractors that he isn't interested in winning a popularity contest, but hopes the world can avoid nuclear war at all costs.Simultaneously, it seems anyone who stands staunchly against a negotiated settlement to the war is celebrated and lauded in the public sphere. Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marine days ago was widely praised for her response to a reporter's question which centered on finding an "off-ramp" amid all the heightening nuclear rhetoric. The head of the newest applicant country to NATO was seen as "tough" and heroic for essentially saying no negotiations are possible so long as Russian forces are in Ukraine...This is why it's surprising that someone of the stature of the former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has come forward to urge that all sides must get serious about pursuing negotiations. Admiral Mike Mullen served as America's highest military commander spanning the Bush and Obama administrations.In a weekend interview on ABC's "This Week", he addressed President Joe Biden's recent nuclear "Armageddon" remarks wherein the US president asserted that Vladimir Putin is "not joking" about possibly using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Mullen said he thinks Washington needs to quickly "back off" such maximalist language, particularly when nuclear war is being talked about:"President Biden's language -- we're about at the top of the language scale, if you will. And I think we need to back off that a little bit and do everything we possibly can to try to get to the table to resolve this thing," Mullen told "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz. pic.twitter.com/3FFrXAufO2 Mullen continued while being asked about Biden's assertion that "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis" by explaining that reaching a point where negotiations can be achieved should remain a central driving policy objective.Show host Raddatz asked Adm. Mullen: "How do you see him [Putin] saving face if he doesn't come to the table? If Ukraine can't figure anything out?" And the former top commander responded as follows: Diplomacy and international pressure on both Ukraine and Russia would ultimately be key, Mullen argued. "It's got to end and usually there are negotiations associated with that," he said. "The sooner the better, as far as I'm concerned."
'Those comments were reckless': Pompeo slams Biden's 'Armageddon' remarks - Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday that President Joe Biden was “reckless” in warning last week about the possible use of nuclear weapons by President Vladimir Putin and Russia. “Those comments were reckless,” said Pompeo, who served in the Cabinet of former President Donald Trump, on “Fox News Sunday,” calling Biden’s statements “a terrible risk to the American people.” In recent weeks, Putin has hinted at the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, saying Russia would employ “all available means” to protect its territory, including land recently annexed by Russia. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Biden said Thursday during a fundraiser, referencing the October 1962 crisis that put the United States and the Soviet Union on the verge of nuclear war for almost two weeks. On Sunday, speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said: “The president was reflecting the very high stakes that are in play right now.” Kirby added in reference to Putin: “Neither we nor our allies are going to be intimidated by this and we’re going to continue to provide support and security assistance to Ukraine as is necessary.” Pompeo said the Biden administration would have been better off using “quiet diplomacy” in pushing Putin to understand the consequences of using nuclear weapons. “I hope that they are doing this quietly,” he said to host Shannon Bream. In discussing Saturday’s blast on the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia with the Crimea, territory that Putin annexed in 2014, Pompeo said: “My guess is that the Ukrainians had something to do with it.” Pompeo said that no matter who damaged that bridge, the attack represented a symbolic defeat for Putin, noting that the bridge was opened with great ceremony by Putin in May 2018. “In different historical epochs ... people dreamed of building this bridge,” Putin said to the workers at the time. “Then they returned to this in the 1930s, the ‘40s, the ‘50s. And finally, thanks to your work and your talent, the miracle has happened.”
The US just spent $290 million on anti-radiation pills used to 'save lives following nuclear emergencies' - The US just spent $290 million on anti-radiation pills used to "save lives following radiation and nuclear emergencies". The US Department for Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Tuesday it had bought a supply of the drug Nplate from Amgen USA Inc. as part of a "long-standing program" of emergency preparedness using authority and funds provided under the 2004 Project Bioshield Act. Nplate is designed to treat patients suffering from acute radiation syndrome (ARS), which occurs when a person's entire body is exposed to a high dose of penetrating radiation, reaching internal organs in a matter of seconds, per HHS. The drug stimulates the body's production of platelets, fighting symptoms of ARS which include uncontrolled and life-threatening bleeding due to a loss of those platelets. Declining to confirm to Reuters whether the purchase was linked to escalating rhetoric by Russia, an HHS spokesperson said it was "part of ongoing efforts to prepare for a wide range of threats including chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and emerging infectious diseases." Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated threats to use nuclear weapons as he announced a partial mobilization of troops in late September. The US has repeatedly said there is no evidence that Russia is planning to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or its allies, accusing Putin of "saber-rattling." But CIA director William Burns told CBS News said it was "very hard to say" whether Putin was bluffing about using the weapons.
After Biden warns of “Armageddon,” NATO escalates war with Russia - On Thursday, US President Joe Biden warned that the war in Ukraine could trigger “Armageddon,” i.e., a nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But within 24 hours of Biden’s warning, the Ukrainian Special Forces, after previously getting a public green light from US officials, staged an attack on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, a provocation aimed at intensifying the war and making such an “Armageddon” more likely. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a series of airstrikes on civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine Monday. Approximately 14 people were killed and 97 injured, according to Ukrainian officials, and power was disrupted in more than half the country’s regions. The World Socialist Web Site condemns the actions of all parties involved in the conflict. The Putin regime is not engaged in a war to defend the Russian population but to defend the interests of the capitalist oligarchy that came to power after the dissolution of the USSR. But ultimate responsibility for the escalation of the war lies with the United States and its imperialist allies. By encouraging Ukrainian plans to forcibly retake Crimea and join NATO, the US sought to instigate a war on Russia’s borders, first to “bleed Russia white” and ultimately to carry out a regime change operation and break up the country. Now, with Russian forces retreating in the face of the better armed and better supplied Ukrainian military—backed by the might of the world's imperialist powers—the US and NATO are seeking to further escalate the war. At no time has the US or any other NATO power called for a ceasefire or negotiated settlement of the conflict.On Tuesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that he would hold a summit of NATO’s nuclear planning group and that NATO would be holding a training exercise using nuclear bombers. In the wake of Friday’s attack on the Kerch Bridge, the New York Timeshailed the blast as a “blow to the Russian war effort in Ukraine.” Leading US officials could not contain their glee at the terror attack, with Colonel Alexander Vindman, the former director for European Affairs for the United States National Security Council, tweeting above a photo of the burning bridge, “I’ve been dreaming of this moment.”But the cheers at Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch Bridge turned to solemn condemnation of Russia’s attack on civilian infrastructure, without skipping a beat.
Biden "Actively Pushing Us To Brink Of A Nuclear Holocaust": Tulsi Gabbard Goes Off In Tucker Interview - Former presidential candidate and recent Democratic Rep from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard appeared on Fox's Tucker Carlson Tonight on Tuesday to discuss her decision to leave the Democratic Party. Gabbard, who has proudly served her country in uniform (and still is with the Army National Guard), announced the very morning of her appearance on Tucker's show that she's exiting the Democratic Party after serving in Congress (Hawaii) from 2013 to 2021. At a moment Gabbard was already subject of intense pushback and online hate for her contrarian stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, she blasted the Democratic Party as "an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness" in a prior Twitter video post. She went on to tell Carlson in the evening appearance that these same leaders are "actively pushing us to the brink of a nuclear holocaust." Hitting on the familiar "Chicken hawks" theme that Ron Paul has long emphasized, she continued "they may have their bunkers where they'll be safe..." "But we the American people will have no shelter, no place to go, no place to hide and face the consequences that could destroy all of humanity and the world as we know it." That's when she detailed reasons for being fed up with the Democratic party, explaining she's seen first-hand that Dem leadership despises the Constitution and is essentially at war with the Bill of Rights-enshrined concept of freedom of speech. "It speaks to the whole environment of fear that those in power, these elitists in power, have fomented to where people are afraid to speak the truth," Gabbard continued. "[People are] afraid to exercise their right to free speech because, hey, you might lose your job, you might be canceled, you might get trashed, and God forbid in Washington, you might not be invited to the cool kids' party." Gabbard herself has long been subject to repeat smears of being "pro-Kremlin" or also an "Assadist" (given she met with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in a controversial 2017 trip at the height of the war) for her principled stance of 'non-interventionism' and longtime criticism of the post-9/11 Global War on Terror. Without doubt, her latest words to Tucker Carlson in affirmation of her formal exit from Democratic Party membership will only heighten the intensity of the ongoing Left-Centrist outrage targeting her. Many within Republican Party leadership also have mounted political attacks against her.
We’re Being Pushed Toward Nuclear War On A Fiction: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix – Caitlin Johnstone -We’re being driven toward nuclear war on the completely fictional claim that Putin is a Hitler-like megalomaniac who’s just invading countries completely unprovoked, solely because he is evil and hates freedom, and won’t stop invading and conquering until he’s stopped by force.The news media aren’t telling people about the western aggressions which led to this war. They’re not telling people the US is keeping this war going with the stated goal of weakening Russia and isrejecting peace talks and refusing to push for peace. All people are being told is that Putin is another Hitler who won’t listen to reason and only understands violence. The world’s two nuclear superpowers are being pushed closer and closer to direct military confrontation based on a complete fiction which omits mountains of facts.To participate in this madness is indefensible. It is indefensibly immoral to foist a fictional version of events upon a trusting populace in order to manufacture consent for more and more aggressive acts of brinkmanship with a nuclear superpower. These people are depraved.“No no you don’t understand, if we weren’t being told constantly by the media that this proxy war needs our full support and censoring the voices who dispute this and using giant troll armies to swarm and silence anyone who questions this, we might fall victim to propaganda.”“You’re not anti-war, you’re just anti-AMERICAN wars,” said the person who is loudly cheerleading America’s proxy war in Ukraine.Warmongers don’t like being called warmongers when they support a US proxy war that was deliberately provoked by the US and is being sustained by the funding and facilitation of the US with the explicit goal of weakening a longtime geopolitical rival of the US. They get very upset when you point out the fact that they are doing this, and when people’s opposition to their warmongering is described as “anti-war”:The closer we get to nuclear war the less patience I have for sectarian spats between people who are supposed to be opposing war and militarism. Grow the fuck up and get over yourselves. This is more important than you and your ego.
US faces increased pressure to help Ukraine with air defense - The pressure for the United States to send Ukraine more advanced air defense systems reached a new high Monday after Russia escalated its war on the country with a barrage of deadly missile strikes. The Kremlin attacks, which targeted civilian areas that for months had enjoyed a relative calm, has produced anew the argument that the West send Ukraine more high-tech air defense weapons, including those similar to Israel’s Iron Dome missile interception system. Washington has long resisted providing Kyiv with such lethal aid, fearing it could escalate the conflict and arguing it would be too complicated to train Ukrainian troops on the advanced systems. But the latest Russia atrocities could shift the wind in Ukraine’s favor, experts say. “Ukrainians have shown over and over again, if you give them the right tools to defend themselves, they will. Hopefully this moves the needle,” said John Spencer, a retired Army major and the chairman of Urban Warfare Studies at the research organization Madison Policy Forum. “If there are people on the other side of that fence, hopefully this is more supporting information that they needed to show that if we have something — whether it’s a rocket or an air defense system — we can give it.” Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered a rain of cruise and ballistic missiles on Kyiv and nine other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 11 individuals and injuring at least another 64. Putin said the attacks were a “harsh” response to a Saturday explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, a crucial Russian rail and road line to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. The bridge is viewed as a key supply route for Moscow’s military offensive on the south of Ukraine. The strikes also follow embarrassing Kremlin losses in its so-called “special military operation,” with Russian troops pushed from thousands of miles of territory in a lightning counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces starting in September. Russia’s escalation has prompted international condemnation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to Telegram to plead for more air and missile defenses from the West — and soon. About 84 missiles were launched on Ukraine but its air defenses were able to down 43 of them, Kyiv’s forces said, pointing to successes with the Western-supplied military aid. Zelensky later on Monday revealed he had a “productive” conversation with President Biden on the matter, stressing that air defense “is currently the number 1 priority in our defense cooperation,” he wrote on Twitter. The White House released its own statement confirming the call and said that Biden “pledged to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems.” Zelensky’s call for the protection of Ukrainian airspace is nothing new, as he has made the plea to the West since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. The Ukrainian leader initially pushed for the United States and NATO to help establish a no-fly zone, but the ask was rejected by the administration and lawmakers in both parties. In order for such a plan to work, officials argued, the U.S. and other European countries would have to enforce it and shoot down Russian planes that came into Ukrainian airspace, potentially setting off a third World War.
Biden scrambles to hold together Ukraine coalition as cracks emerge - President Biden has held hours of conversations in recent months with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other foreign leaders who have not always supported the Western coalition in support of Ukraine, urging them to stand firm against Russian President Vladimir Putin.So — whether through Biden’s efforts or not — the White House was pleasantly surprised when Modi confronted Putin at a summit last month, lecturing him that “today’s era is not of war” and that Putin should “move onto a path of peace,” comments unusual for a leader who has gone to great lengths to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to a senior White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.As these discussions show, Biden is now pushing hard to hold together what has become a central mission of his presidency: maintaining the global and domestic coalition supporting Ukraine. As the war heads into its first winter, probably a bitter and brutal one, some U.S. allies face economic headwinds fueled by the war, while at home some Republicans voice skepticism about the billions in aid going to Ukraine. These efforts face a major test Wednesday when the United Nations votes on a draft resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of four parts of Ukraine. Biden and U.S. officials have been working to convince nonaligned countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa to refrain from taking a neutral position and condemn the Kremlin outright, an effort analysts said might be bolstered by Russia’s barrage of missile attacks Monday on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities. U.S. leaders are hoping at least 100 of the 193 U.N. member states — the number that supported a 2014 U.N. resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea — will support the draft resolution, several senior administration officials said. In March, when the United States first offered a U.N. resolution condemning Russia’s invasion, it received support from 141 member states; arguably, fewer votes than that will mean diplomatic ground has been lost.
US Rejection Of Moscow’s Offer For Peace Talks Is Utterly Inexcusable – Caitlin Johnstone - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow was open to talks with the the US or with Turkey on ending the war in Ukraine, claiming that US officials are lying when they say Russia has been refusing peace talks. Reuters reports:Lavrov said officials, including White House national security spokesman John Kirby, had said the United States was open to talks but that Russia had refused. “This is a lie,” Lavrov said. “We have not received any serious offers to make contact.”Lavrov’s claim was given more weight when US State Department spokesman Ned Price dismissed the offer for peace talks shortly after it was extended, citing Russia’s recent missile strikes on Kyiv.“We see this as posturing,” Price said at a Tuesday press briefing. “We do not see this as a constructive, legitimate offer to engage in the dialogue and diplomacy that is absolutely necessary to see an end to this brutal war of aggression against the people and the state, the Government of Ukraine.” (video)This is inexcusable. At a time when our world is at its most perilous moment since the Cuban Missile Crisis according to many experts as well as the president of the United States, the US government has no business making the decision not to sit down with Russian officials and work toward de-escalation and peace. They have no business making that call on behalf of every terrestrial organism on this planet whose life is being risked in these games of nuclear brinkmanship. The fact that this war has escalated with missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital makes peace talks more necessary, not less.This rejection is made all the more outrageous by new information from The Washington Post that the US government does not believe Ukraine can win this war and refuses to encourage it to negotiate with Moscow.“Privately, U.S. officials say neither Russia nor Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright, but they have ruled out the idea of pushing or even nudging Ukraine to the negotiating table,” WaPo reports. “They say they do not know what the end of the war looks like, or how it might end or when, insisting that is up to Kyiv.”These two points taken together lend even more credibility an argument I’ve been making from the very beginning of this war: that the US does not want peace in Ukraine, but rather seeks to create a costly military quagmire for Moscow just as US officials have confessed to trying to do in Afghanistanand in Syria. Which would explain why US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the US goal in Ukraine is actually to “weaken” Russia, and also why the empire appears to have actively torpedoed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia in the early days of the conflict.This proxy war has no exit strategy. And that is entirely by design.
Viktor Orban of Hungary: Trump could bring peace between Ukraine and Russia - — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Tuesday accused the United States of perpetuating the war in Ukraine by providing Kyiv with weapons and said there should be U.S.-Russian negotiations to bring about a cease-fire.“The Ukrainians have endless resources because they get all that from the Americans,” Orban said at an event hosted by Germany’s Cicero magazine and the daily Berliner Zeitung during a visit to the German capital.President Biden, he said, had gone “too far” by saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin should not remain in power. “Hope for peace is named Donald Trump,” said the right-wing populist leader, a longtime ally of the former U.S. president.Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Orban has been balancing his pro-Putin sympathies with being a member of the European Union. Hungary, also a member of NATO, has backed the bloc’s sanctions packages against Moscow and agreed on measures to reduce corruption as it risks losing billions of dollars in funding from Brussels over concerns about its slide toward autocracy.Also on Tuesday, Hungarian President Katalin Novak, who is from the same party as Orban, joined her Eastern European counterparts in condemning Putin’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities the day before. Orban has blamed the E.U. sanctions packages against Russia for surging energy prices and faltering economies. He repeated on Tuesday that European sanctions were a “catastrophe.”
US will soon need to deter two major nuclear powers for first time, White House says - Within a decade, the US will need to deter two major nuclear weapons powers for the first time, the Biden administration has warned, pointing to the Russian arsenal that is increasingly being brandished by Moscow and an expanding Chinese stockpile.The president’s new national security strategy (NSS) depicts China as the most capable long-term competitor, but Russia as the more immediate, disruptive threat, pointing to its nuclear posturing over Ukraine. It warns that threat could grow as Russian forces continue to suffer defeats on the battlefield.“Russia’s conventional military will have been weakened, which will likely increase Moscow’s reliance on nuclear weapons in its military planning,” the strategy blueprint says. Its publication was scheduled in the spring but was postponed because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Vladimir Putin has threatened to use “all means” to defend Russian territory, in which he included Crimea, annexed in 2014, and four Ukrainian regions he now claims. The NSS pledges US support for Ukrainian resistance would not be affected by such threats.“The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons,” the document says.In a foreword, Biden makes a distinction between the types of threats posed by Moscow and Beijing. “Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has shown,” the president writes.He describes China, on the other hand as “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective”.The policy document portrays Beijing as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge”.“The People’s Republic of China harbors the intention and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order in favor of one that tilts the global playing field to its benefit, even as the United States remains committed to managing the competition between our countries responsibly,” it says.China has an estimated 350 nuclear warheads, according to an assessment by the Federation of American Scientists, compared with 5,977 in Russia’s stockpile, against the US inventory of 5,428. However, the Pentagon believes the Chinese force will grow to more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, making it a third major nuclear power.Under the last remaining major arms control agreement in place, the New Start treaty, the US and Russia observe a ceiling of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, referring to those warheads mounted on land or sea-launched missiles, or ready for loading on to long-range bombers.
China rejects U.S. interventionist policy, unlawful sanctions on Iran - A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson has stated that Beijing opposes the "illegal" sanctions that the United States has placed on Iran under the guise of continuous unrest there caused by the death of a young lady who was detained by police and died at the hospital. Mao Ning made the comments on Sunday during her regular press conference in response to a query regarding the U.S. decision to sanction Iranian officials in accordance with its own domestic law while threatening to impose sanctions on Iran in light of the current circumstances in the country. “China is opposed to the U.S.’s illegal unilateral sanctions on Iran,” Mao said, adding that her country also opposes “interference in countries’ internal affairs under any pretext.” She added, “We are against instigation of color revolutions in countries in the name of democracy and human rights.” On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement declaring sanctions on seven Iranian officials, including Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Minister of Communications and Information Technology Eisa Zarepour. Vahidi is accused of ordering the suppression of riots following the death of Mahsa Amini, and Zarepour is accused of leading attempts to block the country's internet access in an effort to quell the riots. Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, condemned the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Iran on Saturday, calling the restrictions the "backbone" of purported American human rights laws. “Every day, a new list of sanctions against Iran is published under some pretext. This time, the Minister of Interior, the Minister of Communications and five other Iranian officials were sanctioned by the U.S. government,” he remarked.
US transforming Taiwan into “giant weapons depot” - Even as it intensifies its war against Russia in Ukraine, Washington is more and more openly and provocatively preparing for war with China over Taiwan. A New York Times (NYT) article last week entitled “US aims to turn Taiwan into giant weapons depot” reveals the extent of the military planning and preparations underway to transform Taiwan into a heavily-armed camp as the Biden administration goads Beijing into taking military action. For 50 years, following President Nixon’s trip to China in 1972, tensions in the narrow Taiwan Strait between the island and the Chinese mainland have been minimised through the One China policy—the tacit recognition by Washington and virtually every other country that Beijing was the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan. When formal diplomatic relations between the US and China were established in 1979, Washington ended its military and diplomatic ties with Taipei, and withdrew all military forces from the island. Now the Biden administration, following Trump, is more and more blatantly calling the One China policy into question, knowing full well that any declaration of formal independence by Taipei would provoke war with China. Biden has emphatically declared on four occasions that the US is committed to joining Taiwan in any war with China, effectively ending the policy of “strategic ambiguity,” designed to keep both Beijing and Taipei guessing as to any American military involvement. Citing current and former US officials, the New York Times article points to high-level discussions in the White House and the Pentagon aimed at transforming the island into a huge armed camp. “American officials are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan,” it states, “after studying recent naval and air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island.” The conclusion being drawn in American strategic circles is that any Chinese military action to reunify Taiwan with the mainland would begin with a military blockade. “Officials say Taiwan needs to become a ‘porcupine’ with enough weapons to hold out if the Chinese military blockades and invades it, even if Washington decides to send troops,” the NYT declares. Buoyed by the advances against Russian forces in US-orchestrated operations in Ukraine, Washington is seeking to replicate similar tactics in any war in Taiwan to inflict maximum losses on the Chinese military. The NYT explained: “US officials are determining the quantity and types of weapons sold to Taiwan by quietly telling Taiwanese officials and American arms makers that they will reject orders for some large systems in favour of a greater number of smaller, more mobile weapons.” The NYT noted that “shoot-and-scoot” types of armaments, including shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, along with mobile HIMARS rocket launchers, provided to the Ukrainian military, had inflicted major losses on Russian forces. US officials are telling Taiwan that more of those weapons should be ordered to transform the island into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments. In other words, as in Ukraine, the US is pushing for and arming Taiwan for a war fought on the island with complete indifference to the resulting death and destruction. US imperialism aims to weaken and destabilise China, encourage separatist movements in Tibet, Xinjiang and elsewhere, and undermine the Chinese Communist Party regime. Far from being a war to defend democracy or little Taiwan, the US is recklessly confronting another nuclear-armed power in its bid to break up both Russia and China and secure domination over the Eurasian landmass and its vast human and natural resources. Washington last month announced a sixth arms sale to Taiwan involving more than $1.1 billion worth of weapons—the largest so far under the Biden administration. Drew Thomson, a former Pentagon employee, told the NYT that while some arms sales have been greater, the latest is aimed at ensuring that Taiwan will have “a larger supply of war reserve munitions on hand in advance of a conflict.” The package includes 60 Harpoon coastal anti-ship missiles.
"It's An Inconvenience:" Cyberattack Hits Websites Of Major US Airports - Early Monday morning, alleged hackers from 'within the Russian Federation' unleashed cyberattacks on websites of major US airports, according to ABC News, citing a senior US official. Luckily, the attacks did not disrupt systems that handle air traffic control, internal airline communications and coordination, or transportation security. "It's an inconvenience," the senior official said, adding the cyberattacks resulted in "denial of public access" to certain airport websites that report flight wait times and congestion. BREAKING: Some of the nation's largest airports have been targeted for cyberattacks by an attacker within the Russian Federation, a senior official briefed confirms to @ABC News. https://t.co/MkbgjppHWU The attacks were first detected around 0300 ET when the Port Authority contacted the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency that LaGuardia Airport was hit. Chicago O'Hare International Airport, Des Moines International Airport, and Los Angeles International Airport were also targeted. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport had its website restored as of 1030 ET. This is what ATL's website looked like earlier... None of the cyberattacks disrupted flights as engineers and programmers worked with airports to patch websites.
OPEC Returns Fire, Takes Aim At Biden's SPR Release With Clear Message - Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, reiterated the longstanding Saudi stance that they don’t focus on price; it’s all about supply and demand for OPEC’s leading swing producer. But that’s not the whole story.The real message that came out of last week’s OPEC meeting is clear: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are the world’s crude oil swing producers; they are the ones who want to be in control, and in fact are largely in control, of short-term oil prices. Long term oil prices are determined by tectonic shifts in production, much of which is out of Saudi - or any single individual or entity’s - control. Think about the development of shale and horizontal drilling technologies that the U.S. developed and implemented to catapult the U.S. into the top spot as the world’s preeminent oil producer - that process was deployed globally over many years across vast production fields and is not something that can be controlled by a singular decision by any one person, producer, country or company. It was the result geologic engineering advancements, long-term economics, and government policies inside the U.S. that allowed it to happen.That said, Saudi Arabia stands alone in its ability to turn on or off the oil taps on short notice. Saudi Arabia is also the big daddy in OPEC by virtue of the fact that it controls the overwhelming amount of production relative to other OPEC members. It is the world’s undisputed swing producer.President Biden has stepped into the fray with his use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as a means of having the U.S. act as a swing producer of oil as well. Releasing oil from the SPR is, in fact, the only way a U.S. President can directly affect the short-term supply of oil because the U.S. operates under a free market system. Oil producers make their own choices as to how much oil to produce and when, and those decisions are driven by market economics and government policies.The Saudis are also the world’s preeminent petro-economists. They know the fundamentals of the global oil markets better than anyone, and they try to maintain a delicate balance between supply and demand while keeping oil prices high enough to stimulate continued (and additional) oil production but low enough to keep from destabilizing the global economy which, in turn, would hurt oil demand. By backing the latest OPEC production cut, the Saudi’s are clearly signalling their belief that the global economy is weakening and that oil demand will slow as a result.But headlines about the U.S. use of its SPR are what are in focus right now, and the Saudis clearly feel the need to send an additional message. The Saudis know they are likely to win the long-term oil production battle as western nations continue to deemphasize carbon based fuel use with policies that actively discourage, and in some cases actually punish, investment in traditional carbon based fuel production, including crude oil and natural gas. They are secure with their long-term positioning and likely dominance of global oil markets far into the future. But right now short term considerations are also in play, and the Saudis feel that the U.S. has overstepped its bounds by releasing oil from the SPR to relieve prices.President Biden clearly has crossed the red line in Saudi Arabia’s swing producer turf, and the Saudi message is brutally pragmatic: President Biden’s continued use of SPR inventories as a price cap for crude oil is a Sisyphean task, courtesy of the Saudis and OPEC.
OPEC Aligns with Russia - Today the OPEC+ oil cartel announced it will cut output by 2 million barrels a day, beginning in November. Since the world currently consumes about 100 million barrels of oil a day, this will be a cut of about 2%. OPEC is short for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It includes 13 member states, led by Saudi Arabia, and produces 44% of the world’s oil. Eleven other countries work alongside OPEC and make up OPEC+. Those additional countries include Russia, and together with OPEC, they control more than half of the world’s oil, about 55% of it. OPEC+ countries cooperate to reduce market competition and raise prices. The decision of OPEC+ to cut production is not simply about prices. It is about the ongoing struggle over democracy playing out in Ukraine, as the Ukrainians fight off the Russian invaders. The Russian economy depends upon oil sales, and the U.S. and European Union have sought to cut into that money to hurt Russia’s ability to continue its attack in Ukraine. A day ago, after Russia illegally annexed four regions of Ukraine, the 27 member nations in the European Union joined the G7 (which is made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) to set a price cap on Russian oil, in addition to another round of sanctions. Theoretically, this plan should have enabled countries that need Russian oil for heat this winter to get it, while keeping the prices low enough to starve Putin’s war efforts. Russia is co-chair of OPEC+ and is desperate for oil money, on which its economy depends. That economy is crumbling under international sanctions, and Russia’s oil production has dropped about a million barrels a day at the same time that the country has been forced to discount its oil to sell it. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is failing, it needs more money, and Russia asked for the OPEC+ cuts to increase prices. “It’s clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, and OPEC+ delegates said the move was, indeed, a big win for Russia. Biden took heat earlier this year when he traveled to Saudi Arabia to ask leaders to increase production, in part to ease gas prices here in the U.S., which soared after the economy came roaring back after the worst of the pandemic passed and after Putin invaded Ukraine. At the time, the Saudis increased production slightly, but this announced cut makes Saudi Arabia’s rejection of Biden’s request clear, even though the Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said that OPEC+ was simply trying to stabilize markets in the face of a cooling global economy.
OPEC oil cuts bad for global economy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tells Financial Times - (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a decision by the OPEC+ grouping to cut oil production was “unhelpful and unwise” for the global economy, especially emerging markets, the Financial Times said on Sunday.“We’re very worried about developing countries and the problems they face,” Yellen told the newspaper in an interview.She also criticized allies for being slow to send financial aid to Ukraine.“The pace of transferring money to Ukraine is far too slow,” Yellen added, pointing out that some countries that had pledged assistance had not got round to disbursing it.
Biden's Options To Counter OPEC+ Are Limited - This week, OPEC+ made a decision unprecedented in its history and the history of OPEC. The extended cartel approved production cuts of 2 million bpd at a time of steady demand, tight supply, and runway inflation in the world’s biggest economies. More significantly, perhaps, OPEC+ made this decision despite Washington’s numerous attempts to change the mind of the cartel leaders, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE.Just a day before the OPEC+ meeting, CNN reported that all available human resources in the administration had been mobilized, with the White House “having a spasm and panicking,” per one unnamed official.Top officials such as Amos Hochstein and Janet Yellen had been tasked with talking the Saudis and the Emiratis out of a production cut. Talking points included a not too thinly veiled threat of reputational and foreign relations damage: “There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the United States and the west if you move forward.” Yet the Saudis and the Emiratis did just that. They went forward.Commentators were quick to note the move was a slap in the face of the United States and the collective West. It is the West that needs cheaper oil the most right now as the European Union embargoed Russian crude and fuels and the U.S. Democratic administration needs cheap gasoline ahead of the midterms to have a chance of retaining its party majority in Congress, however slim.In a symbolic affirmation of a major geopolitical alignment change, the Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, accused Reuters of bad reporting and refused to answer questions from the agency at a news conference after the OPEC+ meeting and pretty much waved off suggestions by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that OPEC+ was siding with Russia and weaponizing oil at a time when the global economy needed it.In short, OPEC+ bluntly demonstrated it can do whatever it feels it needs to do to protect its own interest, even if this means going against the interests of its traditional allies, including its biggest one.As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas put it in a commentary piece after the meeting,“The US and its Western allies need to pay attention. For the first time in recent energy history, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin don’t have a single ally inside the OPEC+ group.” One might argue that this tectonic change in geopolitics is more important for the future of the world than the war in Ukraine, although these are certainly not isolated from each other.Saudi Arabia has already stated its desire to join the BRICS alliance in what can hardly be interpreted as anything less than a declaration of support for the Russia/China bloc. Its closest ally at home, the UAE, tends to follow Riyadh’s foreign policy, so it is on board with this distancing from the West and forging closing relations with a symbolic East and a very literal group that represents a substantial portion of global GDP.So, the world’s largest oil producers after the U.S. are turning their backs on their once geopolitical friends and siding with the enemy, to put things bluntly and simply. That talking point for the Biden top team cited above may sound like a threat, but what specific form would that threat take?So far, the response has been quite general. In an official statement, President Biden said on Wednesday that he was “disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas” and threatened to consider moves to “reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.”
Biden escalates feud with Saudi Arabia, warning of 'consequences' for cutting oil production in coordination with Russia - President Joe Biden said Saudi Arabia will face "consequences" for cutting oil its production targets, something that he said benefits Russia. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations said last week that it would cut oil production by two million barrels a day, a move which enraged the White House, which has been struggling to tame inflation and decrease gas prices.The OPEC+ group includes Saudi Arabia and Russia — the two biggest oil producers after the US itself — as well as numerous other oil-producing countries.Reducing supply tends to force prices higher because there is less to go around.Biden spoke warned Saudi Arabia in an interview with CNN on Tuesday: "There's going to be some consequences for what they've done, with Russia.""I'm not going to get into what I'd consider and what I have in mind. But there will be – there will be consequences."Biden already had a fraught relationship with Saudi Arabia.The two nations' long alliance has been increasingly fractious in recent years. Issues include Saudi human-rights abuses — particularly the killing of Jamal Khashoggi — US support for a nuclear deal with Iran, and Biden's initial hostility to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which was partially rowed back in a recent visit.An increase in oil prices benefits Russia at a time when the US and Western nations are trying to punish the country for its invasion of Ukraine.White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre responded to the news of the cuts last week by saying it was "clear" that OPEC+ was "aligning with Russia".US officials warned Saudi Arabia that it would be seen as taking Russia's side if OPEC+ cut its production, but Saudi Arabia dismissed the warnings and proceeded, The Wall Street Journal reported.Russia on Sunday praised OPEC+ for cutting its oil production targets.Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on Tuesday that the OPEC+ decision was taken only for economic reasons, Reuters reported.Biden's hardened stance on Saudi Arabia is a big shift from his repeated engagement with the Kingdom and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.Some Democratic lawmakers said the OPEC+ decision shows that the US needs to reconsider its relationship with Saudi Arabia, which receives extensive military assistance from the US.John Kirby, spokesman for Biden's national security council, said on Tuesday that Biden was willing to start re-evaluating that relationship immediately.
Biden threatens 'consequences' for Saudi Arabia after OPEC cut, but his options are limited - President Joe Biden is angry at Saudi Arabia for its decision to slash oil production along with its OPEC allies against U.S. wishes, and he's made no secret of it. With the global economy on a knife-edge and energy prices high, Washington sees the kingdom's move – which it made in coordination with Russia and other oil-producing states – as a snub and a blatant display of siding with Moscow. The oil producer group in early October announced its largest supply cut since 2020, to the tune of 2 million barrels per day from November, which its members say is designed to spur a recovery in crude prices to counter a potential fall in demand. For this, Biden said in an interview with CNN on Tuesday that there would be "consequences." He did not go into further detail as to what those consequences might be. But what are the Biden administration's options, and could they backfire? The Saudi-U.S. relationship was founded, broadly speaking, on the principle of energy for security. Washington has since the 1940s provided billions of dollars in military and security aid to Saudi Arabia. But in recent years, and particularly since the Obama administration began making diplomatic inroads with Iran, Riyadh feels the U.S. commitment to its security has waned. "The truth is, neither side has been holding up their end of the bargain for nearly 10 years now," Michael Stephens, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told CNBC. "And what you're seeing, I think, are permanent fractures in the relationship that are based on the fact that neither side really sees as much strategic benefit in the other as they did 20 years ago," Stephens said, adding that Saudi Arabia's OPEC oil production cut "is a reflection of that." The potential "consequences" Washington can put into action include cutting its military support to the Saudi kingdom, and going after OPEC with U.S. laws. Indeed, just one day before Biden's comments, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, demanded that the U.S. immediately halt all cooperation with Saudi Arabia — including weapons sales. "The United States must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including any arms sales and security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests," Menendez said in a statement. In an earlier interview with CNBC, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., asked, "What's the point of looking the other way when the Saudis chop up journalists and repress political speech inside Saudi Arabia if when the chips are down, the Saudis effectively choose the Russians over the U.S.?" Even Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., weighed in, demanding in a tweet that: "If Saudi Arabia, one of the worst violators of human rights in the world, wants to partner with Russia to jack up US gas prices, it can get Putin to defend its monarchy. We must pull all US troops out of Saudi Arabia, stop selling them weapons & end its price-fixing oil cartel."
Biden has another chance to get tough on the Saudis. But will he and Congress act on it? - When then-Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry was preaching a tough-on-the-Saudis message in 2004, my colleague Glenn Kessler asked a senior Saudi diplomat how worried the kingdom was.The diplomat smirked: “That ends as soon as the new president gets his first security briefing.” That has certainly been the story of the Biden administration thus far. Despite President Biden’s campaign-trail pledge to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah” over the gruesome assassination of Washington Post global opinions columnist Jamal Khashoggi, Biden hasn’t followed through. He took some relatively minor steps, including releasing a report that confirmed the sordid details of the butchering and blamed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But this summer, there he was, meeting with the Saudis in hopes of alleviating high gas prices, fist-bumping the crown prince in a way that projected quite the opposite of “pariah.”Yet suddenly, Biden has been presented with a second chance to make good on his promise — or at least come closer to it. And he’s getting some not-so-gentle nudging in that direction, both by circumstance and from high-profile members of his party.The decision last week by OPEC Plus to reduce oil production in a way that could further drive prices up and help Russia fund its war in Ukraine has set off bipartisan calls for action. But particularly strong are the comments of some top Democrats.Last week, it was the No. 2 Senate Democrat, Richard J. Durbin (Ill.). He cited not just Khashoggi and the OPEC Plus decision, but also “unanswered questions about 9/11.” He added: “It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without this alliance with these royal backstabbers.”Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) followed that up Monday by accusing the Saudis of choosing “war criminal” Vladimir Putin over the United States. He said he would use his post to halt “any cooperation with Riyadh until the kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine.”There appear to be two main options on the table: scaling back defense cooperation and arms sales, and targeting OPEC itself. But one of them is much more readily available — to the point where it would seem to be just sitting there waiting for Congress to pass it. That would be what’s known as the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, or NOPEC. The bill, which would explicitly give the Justice Department the power to sue oil cartels for antitrust violations and market manipulation, has been introduced in each Congress for more than two decades. And it has occasionally gained some momentum — particularly during times when gas prices are high.Versions of it were approved by the House in both 2007 and 2008, and by the Senate in 2007 — each time with at least 70 percent of the chamber voting in favor. But then-President George W. Bush threatened to veto it, so it never became law. The current bill already passed out of the Senate Judiciary Committee this Congress by a vote of 17-4 in May, while another version passed out of the House Judiciary Committee by a voice vote.The question from here is how much will there is to vote on a bill that the past suggests would pass both chambers quite easily. Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, is pushing hard for just that. He said last week that NOPEC should be passed in the lame duck, and hereiterated Tuesday that it must be passed.
NOPEC Bill Won't Bring Oil Prices Down - “Nobody f*cks with a Biden,” said the U.S. president, and the oil ministers of the member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) replied, “Hold my beer.” OPEC+ then proceeded to approve production cuts of 2 million barrels per day, despite a full court press by the administration in the weeks leading up to the decision, and raised the price of oil for the U.S., lowered it for Europe, and left it unchanged for Asia. According to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, “the President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas” and “the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC+’s control over energy prices,” neglecting to mention that Biden administration decisions to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline and to stop issuing new oil and gas leases on public lands gave OPEC+ the upper hand. Apparently, a fist bump only gets you so far. There followed a lot of “how dare they!” by the great and good, but OPEC+ was having none of it. The day before the announcement, the Saudi energy minister dressed down a Reuters reporter for shoddy work by his colleague who claimed that Russia and Saudi Arabia (the Kingdom) conspired to price oil at $100 per barrel, and later explained OPEC+ was being proactive as the West is attacking inflation with higher interest rates which, in turn, may cause a recession and drive down oil demand (and price). Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, explained that the leading cause of today’s energy crisis is years of underinvestment in oil and gas production and that the situation will be worse when the global economy rebounds from the current slowdown. The OPEC+ decision was no doubt based on market fundamentals but part was likely fallout from Biden calling Saudi Arabia and its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), a “pariah” for the killing of activist and Muslim Brotherhood sympathizer Jamal Khashoggi. It probably sounded great on the campaign trail but there is no avoiding the crown prince in America’s dealings with the Kingdom. OPEC+ was said to have “sided with the Russians” – perfect fodder for cable news shows - but it was just looking after its own interest. Also overlooked was the fact that the Saudis worked hard to get Russia, a major oil producer, into OPEC+ to ensure its moves would be in harmony with the organization - which it finally did in 2016 - and to ensure U.S. firms did not dominate the oil market – a pretty reasonable move, actually, for an economic competitor. American critics demanded the U.S. cancel maintenance contracts for U.S.-supplied military equipment and, days later, three Democrat congressmen introduced a bill to remove U.S. troops and air defense systems from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom, and two other Democrat legislators introduced a bill that would halt all arms sales to Riyadh. Congress may resurrect the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC), which would remove the sovereign immunity for OPEC+ as a group and for its individual member states in U.S. courts, leaving them open to prosecution under U.S. anti-trust legislation, or referral for investigation by the World Trade Organization. Of course, NOPEC could also send oil prices higher and end the dominance of the petrodollar, especially if Saudi Arabia prices oil sales to China, its biggest customer, in Yuan, and de-pegs oil from the dollar. What the Biden administration and its confederates are not mentioning (and are hoping voters forget) is that American decisions put America in this spot.
Democratic duo proposes banning arms to Saudi Arabia over OPEC cuts - A pair of Democratic lawmakers is proposing the U.S. halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia in response to oil production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) penned an op-ed in Politico Sunday calling on Congress to cut off arms sales to the leading OPEC country until it reverses its “embrace” of Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Members of Congress are already talking about how best to respond. Some propose extending domestic antitrust laws to international commerce. Others propose reviving a GOP initiative to withdraw U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia. But that idea has failed previously given that the U.S. would rather have its own troops there than Russian or Chinese troops,” the lawmakers wrote.“A simpler, far more urgent move to fortify U.S. national security would be to pause all U.S. military supplies, sales and other weapons aid to Saudi Arabia.”Democrats excoriated Saudi Arabia over the OPEC decision, coming less than three months after President Biden visited Saudi Arabia, where he asked the country’s leaders to increase oil production to help counter the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine.“We give Saudi Arabia 70% of their weapons,” Khanna said on Twitter Friday. “For them to drive up energy prices for the American people is outrageous. It’s simple. If the Saudi-led OPEC+ doesn’t reverse their decision, the US should stop sending them weapons.”The OPEC+ coalition of 13 member nations and 11 non-members, including Russia, announcedlast week that it would bring down production by 2 million barrels, raising concerns about the move pushing up prices at the pump in the U.S. Blumenthal told Politico earlier this week that there remains “an opportunity to persuade the Saudis that you’re making a gigantic mistake here,” adding that he hopes the Biden administration will “be aggressive” in using U.S. leverage.President Biden said on Wednesday he was “disappointed” by the OPEC+ move, while the White House accused Riyadh of “aligning with Russia” with the move.The Biden administration has said it is reviewing its options to respond, while renewing calls for oil companies to reduce prices.Khanna and Blumenthal argued that Saudi Arabia could not easily find new weapons suppliers, giving the US significant leverage.“Maybe it is worth considering some ancient Russian wisdom ourselves. Over a century ago, Russian playwright Anton Chekhov warned, ‘Knowledge is of no value unless you put it into practice.’ Perhaps the same is true about leverage. It is of no value unless used,” they wrote.
'Enough Is Enough': Top Senate Democrat Vows to Block All Future Arms Sales to Saudis - The Democratic chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee pledged late Monday to block all future U.S. weapons sales to Saudi Arabia as backlash over OPEC's decision to cut oil production and push up gas pricescontinues to grow on Capitol Hill.Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who has veto power over foreign arms sales, said in a statement that OPEC's plan to slash production by two million barrels a day in a bid to prop up oil prices amounts to a "decision to help underwrite Putin's war." Russia, an OPEC ally, stands to benefit from higher oil prices without having to reduce its own production."It's time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without this alliance with these royal backstabbers.""The United States must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including any arms sales and security cooperation beyond what is absolutely necessary to defend U.S. personnel and interests," Menendez said Monday. "As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I will not green-light any cooperation with Riyadh until the kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine. Enough is enough."With his statement, Menendez—a war hawk—joined progressive lawmakers such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) in demanding an end to U.S. military aid to the Saudis, the largest buyer of American weaponry.On Sunday, Khanna and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) announced legislation that would "immediately halt all U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia." Last week, three House Democrats introduced a bill that would require the removal of U.S. troops and missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a leading member of the OPEC cartel.Over the past several years, the U.S. has approved tens of billions of dollarsworth of weapons sales to the Saudis as they've waged a catastrophic war on Yemen, sparking a massive humanitarian crisis. The U.S. has also cooperated with the Saudis militarily in other ways, including by refueling the oil kingdom's warplanes, supplying fighter jet parts, and teaming up with the country's murderous leadership to build high-tech bomb parts.Recent congressional efforts to block arms sales to the Saudis—including major deals approved by the Biden administration—have fallen short, but the OPEC decision could mark a key turning point as top Democratic lawmakers demand a complete reevaluation of U.S.-Saudi relations.Just over a year ago, Menendez notably opposed a Senate resolution that aimed to block a $650 million sale of missiles to the Saudis. The bipartisan resolution ultimately failed to clear the upper chamber.In a statement last week, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.)—the chamber's second-ranking Democrat and a supporter of previous attempts to block arms sales to the Saudis—declared that "it's time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without this alliance with these royal backstabbers.""From unanswered questions about 9/11, the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the exporting of extremism, to dubious jailing of peaceful dissidents and conspiring with Vladimir Putin to punish the U.S. with higher oil prices, the Saudi royal family has never been a trustworthy ally of our nation," Durbin said.
Inside the environmental justice movement's big win - Environmental justice activists consider their success in stopping passage of a permitting reform bill last month their movement’s highest profile achievement to date. The question now is whether they can do it again. In the coming weeks, they’ll have to stop Democrats from negotiating with Republicans on a revised permitting proposal that could get attached to must-pass legislation. At the same time, advocates are pushing for a House floor vote on a landmark environmental justice bill that would carry enormous symbolic weight. It’s all a test for members of a coalition that’s been steadily building power and influence for years, who say last month’s victory was a gamechanger for their cause — one that could have enormous consequences for climate legislation and policymaking. “They’re emboldened now,” said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), chair of the House Natural Resources Committee, of the activists. “They coalesced and were able to stop a foregone conclusion. That is significant on many levels.” That “foregone conclusion” was the terms of an agreement between Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), sanctioned by the White House. The deal was that, in exchange for Manchin’s vote on the party’s historic climate and social spending package, Schumer would attach Manchin’s permitting proposal to a stopgap federal spending bill. Manchin’s proposal would have set shorter timelines for National Environmental Policy Act reviews, limit the ability for citizens to launch judicial challenges for proposed energy projects and approve the controversial Mountain Valley pipeline. Progressives saw it as directly undermining the core tenets of H.R. 2021, the “Environmental Justice for All Act,” which passed the Natural Resources committee along party lines in July. That bill would, among other things, dramatically expand the public comment period before permits can be issued, plus provide legal recourse to affected frontline communities. The legislation is, advocates say, the responsible way to reform the permitting process. Activists rallied on this point from the sidelines of the permitting reform negotiations. And a group of House and Senate Democrats amplified those voices and threatened to withhold their votes on the continuing resolution, thereby threatening a government shutdown weeks before the midterm elections. Then, hours before a scheduled procedural vote in the Senate, Manchin saw his proposal wouldn’t pass and declared defeat — at least for the moment. Not only had activists pushed many Democrats to break ranks, Republicans who might have supported the measure otherwise decided against bailing Manchin out. While Grijalva, the lead sponsor of the “Environmental Jusrice for All Act,” was the face of the opposition on Capitol Hill, the victory was one to be shared with — and substantially credited to — the environmental justice community. “There’s not going to be any relaxing on the part of these organizations, and for that matter myself, in terms of what comes next,” Grijalva said. “They’re going to be here from now on. They have integrated the question of justice into all these points in a very powerful way, and from now on it’s going to be part of the decision.”
The supreme court is in session – and every case is potentially a climate one - The supreme court is back in session, and once again corporate interests and Republican attorneys general are taking aim at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), this time via an attack on the Clean Water Act. But given the current bench’s proclivity for expanding corporate rights while restricting civil rights, that case – Sackett v EPA – is by no means the only threat to climate policy before the court.National Pork Producers Council v Ross, for example, is ostensibly about whether California’s law regarding pork sold in the state, requiring the humane treatment of the animals in states it came from, but could also potentially threaten states’ abilities to set renewable energy targets. Two university affirmative action cases (Students for Fair Admissions v University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions v President and Fellows of Harvard College), have implications for the Biden administration’s environmental justice programs. Brackeen v Haaland, challenging the constitutionality of the Indian Child Welfare Act, is a direct threat to tribal sovereignty and a potential boon for fossil fuel companies that would rather not have to deal with Native land and water rights. And of course the two big democracy cases – Moore v Harper, which would give states the ability to run roughshod over federal elections, and Merrill v Milligan, which would deliver yet another nail in the coffin that is the withering Voting Rights Act – would likely be catastrophic for climate policy. Oral arguments in Sackett were heard the first week of October. Rather than go straight at the Clean Water Act, the case attempts to narrow what the law protects and, particularly, undermine its application to wetlands. “The Sacketts have been serial litigators on this issue, they’re a couple whose claim is based on their desire to get a permit, to do some development and their belief that they shouldn’t even have to get a permit,” Sam Sankar, senior vice-president of programs at EarthJustice, explained. “To be clear, if they had applied, they almost certainly would’ve gotten a permit, but they don’t even feel like they should have to get one.”The permit in question is to fill in some wetlands on their Idaho property to build a lake house, and the underlying question in the Sackett case is: what does the Clean Water Act protect? Everybody understands that it protects lakes and big rivers and the ocean. “But the fight for some time from the right has been to constrict the applicability of the Clean Water Act to smaller streams and to wetlands,” Sankar said.Back in 2006, Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote in the opinion on a case called Rapanos v United States that the court should “trust the scientists” when it comes to determining what’s dry land and what’s a wetland. Justice Antonin Scalia wrote the minority opinion in that case, in which he asserted that the court could make that call instead. The current court aligns with Scalia on most views, which means the Sacketts and their virtual army of rightwing and pro-industry groups face a bench that’s far more open to their argument. If the Clean Water Act doesn’t apply to smaller streams and wetlands, though, there’s no way to stop pollution from getting into much larger sources of water downstream.
Greens hope Biden doesn't undermine climate lawsuits - Climate advocates are optimistic that the Biden administration will take their side after the Supreme Court on Oct. 3 invited the Justice Department to share its views in a long-simmering procedural fight that could sink nearly two dozen lawsuits asking oil and gas companies to pay up for the effects of a warming planet.After all, President Joe Biden pledged on the campaign trail to “strategically support” the climate liability lawsuits — a marked change from the Trump administration, which repeatedly backed industry’s effort to quash the cases by moving them to federal court, where companies believe they are more likely to prevail.Yet seemingly friendly Democratic administrations have disappointed environmentalists in the past, including in one Obama-era Supreme Court case that industry lawyers cite as evidence the climate liability lawsuits should not be allowed to advance.Indeed, the fossil fuel industry — which has asked the Supreme Court to decide which venue should hear the cases — welcomed the justices’ decision last week to ask Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar for the Biden administration’s views on the petition Suncor Energy Inc. v. Boulder before the court decides whether to wade back into the jurisdictional battle (Greenwire, Oct. 3).Both the Obama and Trump administrations “filed briefs opposing similar climate lawsuits when those cases were before the court,” said Phil Goldberg, special counsel for the Manufacturers’ Accountability Project, an initiative of the National Association of Manufacturers that opposes the liability litigation.In 2010, the Obama administration stunned environmentalists by urging the Supreme Court in American Electric Power v. Connecticut to toss out a decision by a lower bench that would have allowed states, environmental groups and New York City to sue several of the nation’s largest coal-fired utilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.At the time, Matt Pawa, an attorney representing a coalition of states suing electric power companies, likened the Obama-era AEP brief to being “stabbed in the back.” He called it a “dastardly move by an administration that said it was a friend of the environment” (E&E News, Aug. 25, 2010).In the brief, filed on behalf of the Tennessee Valley Authority, then-acting Solicitor General Neal Katyal sided with power industry emitters, saying that EPA’s newly finalized regulations on greenhouse gases displaced the legal claims by states and environmentalists. Now, Pawa said, there is still a risk of an industry-friendly stance from the Biden administration in the climate liability cases, but he believes it’s less likely than it was more than a decade ago. For starters, he noted that the federally owned TVA electric utility was one of the defendants in AEP.
What a Supreme Court case on pigs means for renewable energy - When the Supreme Court hears oral arguments next week in a case about California’s requirements for housing pigs, an unusual audience will be paying close attention: energy lawyers. The implications of the high court’s ruling in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross could extend beyond the pig pen to the way states set requirements for cleaner electricity, according to some observers. The case challenges Proposition 12, a law passed by Golden State voters in 2018 that requires that pork sold in California come from facilities where sows have pens that are at least large enough for the animals to turn around and stand up. The pork producers’ central argument is that the state law will effectively require producers in other states to follow California’s hog-housing requirements. Controlling their conduct — out-of-state producers say — violates the dormant commerce clause, which bars state laws that hinder interstate commerce. California and its supporters, however, warn that a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the pork producers could more broadly undermine states’ rights. “If the [justices] were to say that a state law has the practical impact of regulating out-of-state conduct [and] was impermissible under the dormant commerce clause, that would be a considerable problem for many energy laws,” said Joel Eisen, a law professor at the University of Richmond. Dormant commerce clause challenges have been used in a range of energy-related lawsuits, from those opposing coal export terminals and low-carbon fuel standards, to others objecting to interstate transmission lines. But experts say this case is most likely to affect challenges to state energy policies, such as renewable portfolio standards, or RPSs. That’s because a decision in favor of the pork producers could more broadly define what qualifies as controlling out-of-state conduct — referred to as the “extraterritoriality” of state laws. A broad interpretation of extraterritorial jurisdiction, however, may be unpopular with the court’s new 6-3 conservative majority. In that case, the court’s decision could help shield energy standards from suits going forward.
Why agencies buy less clean power under Biden than Trump - President Joe Biden is implementing some of the strongest renewable energy incentives in history, but federal procurement of clean power at many agencies has fallen since he took office.Sustainability scorecards released last week by the White House show that renewable energy purchases at EPA and the departments of Energy, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development for 2021 were at or near their lowest levels since 2010. That contrasts sharply with the amount of clean energy that those agencies bought for their operations under former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, particularly at EPA, the agency tasked with administering some of Biden’s flagship climate policies.The progress reports for each agency tell slightly different stories about the purchase of wind and solar power within the federal government. But the trend across several agencies shows that renewable energy use peaked in the Obama or early Trump years, then cratered before the Covid-19 pandemic. It has not rebounded under Biden — in contrast to his administration’s promises that federal procurement would be part of the “whole of government approach” to curbing climate change.Take EPA. The agency tasked with regulating everything from power plants to oil wells for their effects on global warming saw its purchase of renewable energy dwindle last year to its second-lowest level since 2010. EPA used 11,000 megawatt-hours of renewable electricity last year, or 11.9 percent of its overall power consumption. By contrast, between 2010 and 2016, the agency consumed an average of 138,000 MWh of renewable power annually.During those years, EPA invested heavily in renewable energy certificates, or RECs, to cover more than 100 percent of its annual electricity use.Renewable energy companies generate one REC per megawatt-hour of electricity that they contribute to the grid, and entities — including federal agencies — can purchase them to offset their consumption of fossil fuel-based power while encouraging investment in renewables.EPA is still buying RECs — including enough to account for 7,000 MWh last year. But its procurement of renewable energy has fallen far short of an Obama-era executive order that directed agencies to draw 10 percent of their power from green sources in 2016 and 2017, and 20 percent by 2020.Other agencies followed a similar trend.At DOE, the renewable energy cliff came in 2019. For two years before then, renewable energy use at the agency skyrocketed under Trump to 1.604 million MWh of green power, equaling 30.4 percent of DOE’s overall power consumption. Then, in 2019, it nosedived to 18.1 percent of the agency’s power consumption — and never recovered. Last year, clean power accounted for 19.2 percent of DOE’s consumption.At HUD, 2016 might have been dubbed the Year of the Green Electron. One year earlier, the department drew only 8.9 percent of its power — or 2,000 MWh — from renewable sources. Then it ballooned to 84.6 percent in 2016, before crashing back to earth the following year at 11.1 percent. Last year’s rate was marginally higher at 25 percent.A similar story was unfolding at USDA. Renewable power usage peaked at 35 percent of consumption in 2016. It fell thereafter. Usage last year stood at 13.4 percent.The Department of Defense is an outlier. Last year, it used more than 1.9 million MWh of clean power. That was only 6.5 percent of the department’s total consumption but still represented its high-water mark for green electricity use.
Rail union rejects Biden-backed deal, revives strike fears - - The country's third largest freight rail union has voted down a tentative agreement brokered by the Biden administration to avert a nationwide rail strike. The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division, which is the first labor group to reject the offer, said 56% of its almost 12,000 workers turned down the agreement over a lack of time off, according to a statement released Monday. "Railroaders are discouraged and upset with working conditions and compensation and hold their employer in low regard," said Union President Tony Cardwell in a statement. "Railroaders do not feel valued. They resent the fact that management holds no regard for their quality of life, illustrated by their stubborn reluctance to provide a higher quantity of paid time off, especially for sickness." The rejection of the agreement does not signal a strike. Four other unions have already approved the deal. Seven more are scheduled to vote through the middle of November. However, if one union were to strike, others could refuse to cross the picket line. Last month, President Biden celebrated the tentative deal which gives union members an average 24% pay increase over five years, improved working conditions and caps on what they have to pay for healthcare. The administration worked until the final hour to avert a rail strike that threatened to sever the supply chain, by cutting 40% of long-haul U.S. cargo, and cripple the economy. The rejection does not "present risk of an immediate service disruption" because both sides have agreed to maintain the status quo as they return to the bargaining table, the committee said.The union's "no" vote sets up a "status quo" period during which no strike can take place while the union resumes bargaining with freight railroads, according to BMWED's statement. The status quo period will extend five days after Congress reconvenes, which is currently set for Nov. 14, meaning there could be no "self help," or strike, until after Nov. 19.
Rail union rejects Biden-brokered labor deal, raising strike prospect A union representing nearly 12,000 railroad workers on Monday voted down the tentative contract agreement between freight railroad companies and all 12 of their unions brokered by the White House last month. The rejection, by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division of the Teamsters (BMWED), raises the prospect once again of a nationwide rail strike. That would be devastating for the economy and possibly arrive during peak holiday season — a political headache for the Biden administration. Railroaders do not feel valued. They resent the fact that management holds no regard for their quality of life, illustrated by their stubborn reluctance to provide a higher quantity of paid time off, especially for sickness," said BMWED president Tony Cardwell in a statement. If the parties can't come to terms, then there could be a strike that other unions would honor — or Congress might step in. In a statement, the group that represents the freight companies in bargaining, the National Carriers' Conference Committee, said they were "disappointed," but noted that for now nothing changes. "The failed ratification does not present risk of an immediate service disruption," it said. White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson told Axios in an email that President Biden "remains focused on avoiding a rail shutdown, and both sides have said they share that desire." There are 12 unions that represent about 115,000 workers. Four other unions have ratified the agreement, and over the next month or so, seven more are set to vote. The agreement gives employees a substantial pay raise — after nearly three years of no increases — but doesn't adequately address many workers' concerns over workplace conditions, insiders told Axios. The two largest unions that represent conductors and engineers — making up about half the total rail workforce — aren't set to conclude voting until November 17. If the unions vote down the deal, it could be left to a lame-duck Congress to step in. That would give Democrats more cover to force workers into a deal, Bascome Majors, a railroad analyst at Susquehanna, wrote in a recent note. Jeremy Ferguson, president of SMART, the biggest union with 37,000 members, said the tentative agreement fell short of his expectations. "I will not sell members on this tentative agreement. It is my responsibility and duty to provide you with factual information and allow you to make an educated choice," he added in a separate statement.Meanwhile, the most vocal workers are saying they don't like the deal — but it's not clear if they're in the majority.
Biden vows to save Social Security and Medicare in face of shortfalls - Dale Coberly - USA TODAY published an review of Biden Speech which AB suggested I review. Its not as bad as it might have been. It still amounts to a lie by Misdirection.. “Biden vows to save Social Security and Medicare in face of shortfalls, but offers few details,” Maureen Groppe, USA Today. It has been said that looking at the face of the devil is one of the chief torments of hell. That is the way I feel when I look at the so many lying and ignorant articles about Social Security. This is going to be my belated review of the USA TODAY article, much shortened for your reading pleasure and my sanity. Easiest for me to use quotes from USA followed by my comments.
- USA: President Joe Biden on Tuesday put the spotlight on Medicare and Social Security, hot button issues that could pack a political punch six weeks before the midterm elections.His remarks at the White House were delivered days after the popular programs got little attention in House Republicans’ rollout of the agenda they promise to pursue if voters give them control in November.Both Medicare and Social Security face long-run financing problems.
- Coberly: Note how quickly the article changes from “Biden’s speech” to “Social Security long run financing problems.” USA is just using the Biden speech as an excuse to publish the old lies (by misdirection) about Social Security
- USA: Democrats’ proposed solutions have generally focused on increasing taxes on higher income earners while also promising to expand benefits. Republicans accuse Democrats of further straining Medicare through recent efforts to lower prescription drug costs. Many Republicans have backed raising the eligibility age for Medicare and the retirement age for Social Security as part of a plan to keep the programs solvent without hiking taxes.
- Coberly: “Democrats … increase taxes … Republicans keep program solvent without hiking taxes” [note I will put paraphrases in quotes. the reader is expected to be smart enough to tell the difference between a direct quote and a paraphrase]. So, we have established that Dems want to tax and spend while Republicans what to save and strengthen. But I am at a loss to understand how lowering prescription drug prices strains Medicare.
- USA: Because the government is paying out more in monthly Social Security benefits than it’s collecting in taxes, it’s projected to run out of reserves to fully fund benefits in 2035. At that point, it would have enough money to cover 80% of benefits. The Medicare trust fund, which covers inpatient hospital services, will only be able to pay 90% of scheduled benefits after 2028.
- Coberly: “run out of reserves …” but no discussion of what that means. the reserves are not particularly important. SS is paid for by employee contributions (aka payroll tax). The “reserves” are just a prudent reserve to smooth out variations in payroll tax collections vs expenses (benefits paid out). The Reserve has been significantly increased in recent years to ensure the baby boom generation pays its fair share, which would normally happen automatically under the pay as you go financing structure of Social Security. But, it would impose an unfair burden on “the young” because of the much larger size of the boomer generation. That reserve is now being drawn down as it was intended to be while paying for the boomers (paying them back). Meanwhile, the increasing life expectancy will mean the payroll tax needs to be increased slightly … more years in retirement takes more money. You would need to save more in any case, with or without Social Security. Or work longer, which might not be as much fun as you think: living longer does not mean keeping your strength, abilities, health, or that you won’t want to retire to enjoy your longer life after working 40 or more years … and paying for that retirement yourself.
What You Don’t Have and Why --While visiting Denmark recently, I developed an infection in my hand and wanted to see a doctor. The hotel in the provincial city where I was staying directed me to a local hospital. I was quickly shown into a consulting room, where a nurse questioned me and told me to wait. Only a few minutes passed before a physician entered the room, examined me, and said in excellent English, yes, indeed, I did need an antibiotic. He promptly swiveled in his chair, opened a cabinet behind him, took out a bottle of pills, handed it to me, and told me to take two a day for 10 days. When I thanked him and asked where I should go to pay for the consultation and the medicine, he responded simply, “We have no facilities for that.” No facilities for that.It’s a phrase that comes back to me every time I’m reminded how, in the world’s richest nation, we still don’t have full national health insurance. And that’s far from the only thing we’re missing. In a multitude of ways, we’re known for having a far weaker social safety net than many other wealthy countries and behind that lies a history in which the Espionage Act played a crucial role.A Danish friend who visited with me recently was appalled to find hundreds of homeless people living in tent encampments in Berkeley and Oakland, California. And mind you, this is a progressive, prosperous state. The poor are even more likely to fall through the cracks (or chasms) in many other states.Visitors from abroad are similarly astonished to discover that American families regularly pay astronomical college tuitions out of their own pockets. And it’s not only well-off European countries that do better in providing for their citizenry. The average Costa Rican, with one-sixth the annual per capita income of his or her North American counterpart, will live two years longer, thanks largely to that country’s comprehensive national health care system. Why hasn’t our country done better, compared to so many others? There are certainly many reasons, not least among them the relentless, decades-long propaganda barrage from the American right, painting every proposed strengthening of public health and welfare — from unemployment insurance to Social Security to Medicare to Obamacare — as an ominous step down the road to socialism. This is nonsense, of course, since the classic definition of socialism is public ownership of the means of production, an agenda item not on any imaginable American political horizon. In another sense, though, the charge is historically accurate because, both here and abroad, significant advances in health and welfare have often been spearheaded by socialist parties.
Biden Takes Action To Lower Health Care And Prescription Drug Costs - To mark the start of Medicare Open Enrollment season, President Joe Biden will travel to two cities these days to highlight how seniors can take advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act's cost-saving provisions as they shop for new health insurance plans. Friday at 6:10 PM ET, Biden will deliver remarks on lowering costs for American families, according to the White House. Saturday, he is scheduled to speak in Portland, Oregon. The President will also sign an Executive Order directing the Department of Health and Human Services to explore additional actions it can take to lower prescription drug costs. That includes leveraging the "Innovation Center" at HHS, created by the Affordable Care Act, which has authority to test new ways of paying for Medicare services that improve the quality of care while lowering costs. Under the Executive Order, HHS will have 90 days to submit a formal report outlining any plans to use the Innovation Center's authorities to lower drug costs and promote access to innovative drug therapies for Medicare beneficiaries. This action would build on the Inflation Reduction Act's landmark drug pricing reforms and help provide additional breathing room for American families. The Inflation Reduction Act aims to tackle the rising health care costs in the United States, which is one of the factors that are driving inflation. Too many Americans face challenges paying for prescription drugs. On average, Americans pay two to three times as much as people in other countries for prescription drugs, and one in four Americans who take prescription drugs struggle to afford their medications, according to the White House. Nearly three in ten American adults who take prescription drugs say that they have skipped doses, cut pills in half, or not filled prescriptions due to cost. The Inflation Reduction Act locks in on average $800 per year lower health care premiums for 13 million families, lowers seniors' prescription drug prices, and caps their out of pocket expenses for prescription drugs at $2,000 per year. To further lower health care costs, earlier this week, the Treasury Department took action to fix the so-called "family glitch" rule that was making it harder for families to afford health care coverage for their spouse or child. It is estimated that about 1 million Americans will either gain coverage or see their insurance become more affordable as a result of the new rule. Starting this January, seniors and other Medicare beneficiaries will begin to see the benefits of these cost-saving measures, the White House said in a fact sheet. During Medicare Open Enrollment - running from October 15 to December 7 - seniors and other beneficiaries will be able to choose drug coverage.
Treasury Department probing DeSantis’ migrant flights — The Treasury Department is examining Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ migrant transports and whether the Republican governor improperly used money connected to Covid-19 aid to facilitate the flights. The agency’s inspector general’s office confirmed to several members of Massachusetts’s Democratic congressional delegation that it planned “to get this work underway as soon as possible” to probe Florida’s spending as part of ongoing audits into how states have used the billions in sent to them as part of the American Rescue Plan, according to a letter provided by Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey’s office. In an Oct. 7 letter to Markey and five House members, Richard K. Delmar, deputy inspector general for the Treasury Department told the lawmakers that the agency would “review the allowability” of Covid-19 aid to states “related to immigration generally, and will specifically confirm whether interest earned on (the) funds was utilized by Florida related to immigration activities, and if so, what conditions and limitations apply to such use.” There was no immediate response from Treasury officials or the DeSantis administration about the ongoing probe. Last month, DeSantis used two charter flights to transport nearly 50 Venezuelan migrants from San Antonio to Martha’s Vineyard, a move that sparked widespread outrage among Democrats. DeSantis contended the move was to draw attention to immigration policies of the administration of President Joe Biden, but Democrats accused the Florida governor of using vulnerable migrants in a political stunt. Biden called DeSantis’ flights “reckless” and several Democrats, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have called on the Justice Department to investigate DeSantis’ flights. Several groups have filed legal challenges to stop Florida from facilitating more transports, and a Texas sheriff is currently probing the flights. But the Treasury letter marks the first time federal authorities have acknowledged they’re looking into the transports. Florida did not directly use federal Covid-19 funds to transport the migrants. But state legislators earlier this year directed that $12 million in interest earned off Covid-19 aid be used to pay for the transport of “unauthorized aliens from this state.” So far, Florida paid a Panhandle-based company $1.56 million to fly migrants but DeSantis has vowed to continue transporting them to Blue strongholds.
A majority of GOP nominees — 299 in all — deny the 2020 election results - Candidates who have challenged or refused to accept Joe Biden’s victory are running in every region of the country and in nearly every state. Republican voters in four states nominated election deniers in all federal and statewide races The Post examined. Although some are running in heavily Democratic areas and are expected to lose, most of the election deniers nominated are likely to win: Of the nearly 300 on the ballot, 174 are running for safely Republican seats. Another 51 will appear on the ballot in tightly contested races. The implications will be lasting: If Republicans take control of the House, as many political forecasters predict, election deniers would hold enormous sway over the choice of the nation’s next speaker, who in turn could preside over the House in a future contested presidential election. The winners of all the races examined by The Post — those for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, Senate, and House — will hold some measure of power overseeing American elections. Many of these candidates echo the false claims of former president Donald Trump — claims that have been thoroughly investigated and dismissed by myriad officials and courts. Experts said the insistence on such claims, despite the lack of evidence, reflects a willingness among election-denying candidates to undermine democratic institutions when it benefits their side. The Post’s count — assembled from public statements, social media posts, and actions taken by the candidates to deny the legitimacy of the last presidential vote — shows how the movement arising from Trump’s thwarted plot to overturn the 2020 election is, in many respects, even stronger two years later. Far from repudiating candidates who embrace Trump’s false fraud claims, GOP primary voters have empowered them. The issue has dominated in key battlegrounds. In Warren, Mich., on Saturday, Trump campaigned for three statewide candidates, all of them deniers: Tudor Dixon for governor, Matthew DePerno for attorney general, and Kristina Karamo for secretary of state. “I don’t believe we’ll ever have a fair election again,” Trump told the crowd. ‘’I don’t believe it.’’ Scholars said the predominance of election deniers in the GOP bears alarming similarities to authoritarian movements in other countries, which often begin with efforts to delegitimize elections. Many of those promoting the stolen-election narrative, they said, know that it is false and are using it to gain power. “Election denialism is a form of corruption,” said Ruth Ben-Ghiat, the author of ‘’Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present’' and a historian at New York University. “The party has now institutionalized this form of lying, this form of rejection of results. So it’s institutionalized illegal activity. These politicians are essentially conspiring to make party dogma the idea that it’s possible to reject certified results.” In the short term, scholars said, that party dogma is likely to produce multiple election challenges this fall from deniers who lose. It could poison the 2024 presidential race, as well. “It’s quite possible in 2022 we’re going to have a serious set of challenges before the new Congress is seated, and then this will escalate as we move toward 2024 and another presidential election, in which the candidates, again, almost required by the Trumpians, will be challenging election outcomes,” said Larry Jacobs, a politics professor at the University of Minnesota whose areas of study include legislative politics. In the longer term, Jacobs said, the country’s democratic foundations are at risk.9:11 PM
Cassidy Hutchinson testified that Trump told Mark Meadows 'I don't want people to know that we lost' 2020 election court case - Former President Donald Trump was "fired up" after the Supreme Court rejected a Texas lawsuit aiming to overturn the 2020 presidential election, former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson told the House committee investigating the January 6 riot.Cassidy testified that she and her then-boss, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, crossed paths with Trump in the Rose Garden in December 2020 as the president was leaving the Oval Office."The president's just raging about the decision and how it's wrong and why didn't we make more calls and just his typical anger, outburst at this decision," she said in testimony the committee presented on Thursday. "He had said something to the effect of, 'I don't want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing. Figure it out. We need to figure it out. I don't want people to know that we lost.'"The testimony supports a description of that conversation in a newly-revealed Secret Service message that the committee presented, saying he was "pissed" and "livid."Trump had pinned his hopes on the Supreme Court siding with him in the case that sought to toss out election results in four battleground states that he lost to President Joe Biden.It was among more than 60 election lawsuits the committee identified as having been filed by the Trump campaign or allies, resulting in 61 losses and one victory that didn't impact the outcome for any candidate, GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a committee member, noted.
'POTUS is pissed': Trump was 'livid' Supreme Court rejected challenge to election results, Secret Service agent warned -- Former President Donald Trump was noticeably angry when the Supreme Court rejected his challenge to the results of the 2020 election and did not want people to know he had lost, new evidence and testimony presented by the Jan. 6 committee on Thursday revealed.In a Secret Service email obtained and presented by the committee, a special agent warned other members about Trump's response.“Just fyi. POTUS is pissed,” reads the message, dated Dec. 11, 2020. “breaking news - Supreme Court denied his law suit. He is livid now.”At a hearing on Capitol Hill, the House select committee also presented new videotaped testimony from Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who witnessed Trump’s fury on the day the Supreme Court rejected his appeal.“Mr. Meadows and I were in the White House residence at a Christmas reception,” Hutchinson said. “And as we were walking back from the Christmas reception that evening, the president was walking out of the Oval Office, so we crossed paths in the Rose Garden colonnade.“The president was fired up about the Supreme Court decision,” Hutchinson said.She stepped back a few feet, but could hear Trump “raging about the decision, and how it’s wrong, and, ‘Why didn’t we make more calls?’ Just his typical anger, outburst at this decision.”According to Hutchinson, Trump “said something to the effect of, ‘I don’t want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing. Figure it out. We need to figure it out. I don’t want people to know that we lost.’”
How Trump's legal expenses consumed GOP donor money - Donald Trump’s political operation has spent more money since he left office on lawyers representing the former president and a pair of nonprofits staffed by former Cabinet members than it has on Republican congressional campaigns, according to a review of financial filings. Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, has blitzed supporters in recent days with fundraising solicitations that focus on next month’s high-stakes contest for control of Congress. “It is IMPERATIVE that we win BIG in November,” blared an email last week. The group has contributed about $8.4 million so far directly to Republican campaigns and committees, while devoting $7 million to Trump’s lawyers and another $2 million to the nonprofits, which employ former members of his administration, including former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Legal fees are expected to climb, Trump advisers say, as he employs a growing retinue of lawyers to fend off federal, state and county-level investigations. Available filings, which disclose payments only through the end of August, show Save America sent its single biggest check in the last 20 months not to a Trump-backed candidate or to advertising aimed at swing-state voters. Instead, the $3-million payment went to a Florida law firm representing the former president in the Justice Department’s investigation of his handling of government documents at Mar-a-Lago and its probe of the riot on Jan. 6, 2021, aimed at keeping Trump in power. Trump attorney Christopher Kise demanded the fee up front before he accepted the role. (A series of payments to multiple groups working unsuccessfully to oust Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) surpassed $3 million.) Legal expenses incurred by Save America exploded this summer, as multiple probes of Trump’s conduct intensified, from the capital, where lawmakers and prosecutors are investigating possible wrongdoing, to New York and Georgia, where authorities are scrutinizing the former president, his political associates and members of his family. Cash doled out to lawyers by the leadership PAC nearly tripled between May and June, as authorities sent subpoenas to a wide range of people involved in efforts to reverse Trump’s November 2020 loss. That sum nearly doubled in July compared to June, reaching almost $1 million. And in August, Save America spent more than $3.8 million on legal consulting, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission. The committee has spent $42 million in total so far this cycle — with much of that sum going to payroll, event staging and fundraising — and had more than $92 million in reserve at the end of the summer.
Justice Dept. asks Supreme Court to deny Trump’s request in Mar-a-Lago case - The Justice Department asked the Supreme Court on Tuesday to deny a petition from Donald Trump’s attorneys in the Mar-a-Lago search case, arguing that allowing an outside arbiter to review the classified documents seized from the former president’s Florida residence would “irreparably injure” the government and that Trump has no “plausible” claims of ownership over these sensitive government materials.Trump’s legal team last week made a technical and narrow petition to the court, asking the justices to reconsider a portion of an appeals court ruling that granted the Justice Department’s request to keep the classified documents separate from a review of seized material being conducted by the outside expert, known as a special master.FBI agents seized more than 11,000 documents from Trump’s Florida residence and private club, including 103 with a variety of classification markings. The former president’s lawyers have argued that the appeals court lacked authority to prohibit the special master from reviewing the classified materials. They asked the Supreme Court to allow the outside expert to examine those sensitive government documents. In its September ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit also said Justice Department could immediately resume using the classified documents in its criminal investigation — something that the lower court had prohibited until the special master completed his review. While Trump’s lawyers requested that the Supreme Court allow the classified documents to be reviewed, they did not ask the justices to prohibit the government from using those materials in its criminal probe. The Justice Department on Tuesday pushed back against the Trump lawyers’ arguments that the appeals court lacked jurisdiction to say what the special master could review, saying the panel of judges had authority to review the entire ruling appointing a special master, not just portions of it.
Supreme Court Denies Trump Motion Seeking To Reinstall Special Master - The US Supreme Court has denied an appeal by former President Donald Trump to reinstate a special master to access classified documents seized by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago. Trump had requested that the USSC vacate the 11th circuit's stay of Judge Aileen Cannon's order which required the DOJ to turn over more than 100 classified documents to Special Master Raymond Dearie for review, as part of an examination of the more than 11,000 government records seized during the August 8 raid - arguing that it "impairs substantially the ongoing, time-sensitive work of the special master.""Any limit on the comprehensive and transparent review of materials seized in the extraordinary raid of a president’s home erodes public confidence in our system of justice," Trump's lawyers argued.NEW: The Supreme Court has denied Trump's request to vacate the 11th circuit's stay of Judge Aileen Cannon's order requiring DOJ to turn over classified material from Mar-a-Lago to Special Master Raymond Dearie for his review. pic.twitter.com/WuCtBskGEPInstead, the Supreme Co urt declined to intervene after the DOJ on Tuesday urged the Supreme Court to deny Trump's appeal, CNBC reports.U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar in a court filing argued that Trump has “no plausible claims” to the classified records.Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court is on a relatively narrow issue and is not expected to affect any ultimate decision by DOJ on whether to file criminal charges against him or others.The DOJ is investigating Trump for removing records from the White House upon his departure from office in January 2021. By law, those records belong to the federal government and must be surrendered to the National Archives and Records administration. Trump, meanwhile, has claimed that he declassified them prior to leaving office.
DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Reject Trump Request In FBI Classified Documents Case - The Justice Department (DOJ) asked the Supreme Court to reject former President Donald Trump’s bid to have the court intervene in a dispute over documents seized from his Mar-a-Lago resort two months ago.The 45th president last week filed an emergency request asking the high court to lift an appeals court decision preventing a special master from reviewing 100 documents that were allegedly marked classified. Those documents were among some 11,000 records that FBI agents seized on Aug. 8.While urging the Supreme Court to reject Trump’s petition, DOJ officials wrote (pdf) the former president “certainly cannot establish the clear error required to justify the relief he seeks—particularly because he does not acknowledge, much less attempt to rebut, the court of appeals’ conclusion that the district court’s order was a serious and unwarranted intrusion on the Executive Branch’s authority.”On Aug. 22, Trump filed a petition to restrict the DOJ’s access to the records as it pursues an investigation into whether he retained classified documents after departing the White House in January 2021. A federal judge in Florida sided with Trump’s attorneys and appointed a special master, retired Judge Raymond Deare, to review the documents.His lawyers previously told the Supreme Court that Dearie should be able to look into the records to see whether the FBI-seized materials “bearing classification markings are in fact classified, and regardless of classification, whether those records are personal records or presidential records.”Further, they wrote that the DOJ is trying “to criminalize a document management dispute and now vehemently objects to a transparent process that provides much-needed oversight,” his lawyers added.
The Sordid Saga of Hunter Biden’s Laptop -Imagine the entirety of your digital existence plotted out before you: your accounts and passwords; your avatars; your contacts; every exchange of written dialogue; the full history of your logged interests, banal and forgettable and closely held; the note where you scrawled once-urgent word fragments that now make zero sense to you; the rabbit holes you fell down or the minor obsession or the thing that connected to the thing that led you to decide to do another thing that became a part of a part of a part of who you are, or a part of who you are to some people, or a part of who you are only to yourself, barely recognizable in the light of day. Your selfies. Your sexts. Your emails. Your calendar. Your to-do list. Your playlists. Your tabs.Now imagine that you are both the son of a man running for president and a lawyer and lobbyist accustomed to mixing with powerful people and doing business overseas premised on your proximity to those powerful people, and that you are in the throes of a divorce and a midlife catastrophe brought on by the early death of your older brother and that, in your distortion field of grief, on a hell-bent drug-and-alcohol binge, you have been making even more horrible choices, taking up with your brother’s widow and, while in considerable financial debt, hiring prostitutes and zoning out with camgirls and staying awake for days at a time on crack cocaine and generally hurting everyone in your life who is trying to help you with your cruel and idiotic behavior.And imagine that, in the middle of all of this, you lose control of 217 gigabytes of your personal data: videos in which you have sex; videos in which you smoke crack; bleary-eyed selfies; selfies that document your in-progress dental work; your bank statements; your Venmo transactions; your business emails; your toxic rants at family members; analysis from your psychiatrist; your porn searches; your Social Security number; explicit photos of the many women passing through your bedrooms, photos of your kids, of your father, of life and death, despair and boredom. Imagine revealing this kaleidoscopic archive of all your different selves to anyone else. Now imagine it’s not just anyone but the same political opposition that has already sought to destroy your father’s candidacy by improperly pressuring a foreign leader to offer up dirt about your (sketchy, for sure) business dealings. Imagine, in a country with toxic and broken politics, how explosive this collection of data might appear to your enemies in the days leading up to a presidential election, and how valuable it might become after their defeat, as they seek to overturn and then undermine the results. For the sake of simplicity, let’s call this nebulous cloud of data a “laptop.”
Joe Biden Defends Hunter On Possible Criminal Charges - President Joe Biden on Tuesday said he has “great confidence” in his son, downplaying reports that federal investigators have enough evidence to charge the first son with tax crimes and a false statement on a gun purchase.Biden made the remark during an interview with CNN, when the president was asked to comment about an Oct. 6 article by The Washington Post, which cited anonymous sources who said that federal agents had “determined months ago” that they had put together a viable criminal case against Hunter Biden.“Personally and politically, how do you react to that?” CNN host Jake Tapper asked Biden.“Well, first of all, I’m proud of my son,” Biden said in response. “This is a kid who got, not a kid—he’s a grown man. He got hooked on—like many families have had happen, hooked on drugs. He’s overcome that. He’s established a new life.”Biden added that he is “confident” that what his son “says and does are consistent with what happens.” To provide an example, he pointed to his son’s memoir “Beautiful Things” and said Hunter Biden was “straightforward” in his book.
Republicans Withdraw $1 Billion From BlackRock Due To Its ESG Policies - Multiple U.S. states governed by Republicans are withdrawing state funds from BlackRock’s management, as they disapprove of the ESG investment policies of the world’s top asset manager, the Financial Times reports.In recent weeks, Louisiana, South Carolina, Utah, and Arkansas have announced they would divest funds from BlackRock totaling more than $1 billion.Last week, Louisiana State Treasurer John Schroder announced in a letter to BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink that he would divest all Treasury funds from BlackRock. Louisiana has removed $560 million to date and will pull out a total of $794 million by year’s end, Schroder noted.“This divestment is necessary to protect Louisiana from mandates BlackRock has called for that would cripple our critical energy sector,” said Schroder. “I refuse to spend a penny of Treasury funds with a company that will take food off tables, money out of pockets and jobs away from hardworking Louisianans.”South Carolina will pull $200 million from BlackRock by the end of the year, State Treasurer Curtis Loftis told FT in an interview. For months now, Republican states have said they would not do business anymore with asset managers who have ESG-aligned investment policies, which, the states say, show that those financial firms are boycotting the oil and gas industry. Texas, the largest oil-producing state in America, is leading the campaign against this movement. The Lone Star State published in August a list of financial firms that could be banned from doing business with Texas, its state pension funds, and local governments. Texas and other Republican-led oil and gas states see the ESG investment trend as an implicit attack on fossil fuels and a boycott of conventional energy resources, the revenues from which make up a large portion of state budgets in the oil, gas, and coal country.In early August, the Attorney Generals of 19 states—including Texas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Montana, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Ohio—sent a letter to BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink expressing concerns with the asset manager’s commitment to net-zero emissions across all its assets. “Rather than being a spectator betting on the game, BlackRock appears to have put on a quarterback jersey and actively taken the field,” the attorney generals wrote.
Thousands Of US Officials Trade Shares Of Companies They Regulate: WSJ More than 2,600 executive branch officials have bought and sold shares of companies whose fortunes rise and fall on the policies their agencies enact, a Wall Street Journal investigation has found. While controversy about insider trading by members of Congress has occasionally stirred major headlines, this phenomenon has quietly endured across Democratic and Republican administrations alike -- and it involves more than 20% of senior officials among the 50 agencies covered by the Journal's research so far.The findings are based on the Journal's study of more than 31,000 disclosure forms filed between 2016 and 2021 by 12,000 senior career employees, presidential appointees and political staffers. Some riskier trades -- involving options and short sales, for example -- were valued between $5 million and $25 million.Though it's illegal for officials to work on issues in which they have a direct financial interest -- and though regulations even prohibit the mere appearance of conflicts of interest -- the Journal found many such instances. For example:"A top official at the Environmental Protection Agency reported purchases of oil and gas stocks. The Food and Drug Administration improperly let an official own dozens of food and drug stocks on its no-buy list. A Defense Department official bought stock in a defense company five times before it won new business from the Pentagon."Often, ethics officials have simply waived the rules, or certified that an official's trade qualifies for an exception. More than 40% of the Treasury Department's senior officials traded in companies touched by their agency -- the highest among the 50 agencies studied by the Journal. Treasury was followed by the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Defense, the IRS, SEC and the Fed -- each of which had an above-average percentage of officials implicated. Some agencies sought to thwart the Journal's scrutiny, and at least one is still stonewalling completely: "Some [agencies] made it difficult to obtain the forms, and several agencies haven’t turned over all of them. The Department of Homeland Security hasn’t provided any financial records," the Journal reports.The Journal has indicated these initial revelations are just the start of an investigative series. For a deep dive into several examples of questionable trading by federal officials, read the Journal's first installment here.
Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed or Mainstream Media that Systemic Contagion at Wall Street Banks Is Already Here --By Pam and Russ Martens: --At Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s last press conference on September 21 he said that there is “good reason to think that this will continue to be a reasonably strong economy.” Unfortunately, the U.S. can’t have a strong economy without strong banks willing and able to lend. And there are serious storm fronts in that area that the Fed Chair and mainstream media are choosing to ignore. Last week multiple news outlets raised the question as to whether the troubles at Credit Suisse signaled another “Lehman moment.” (See here, here, and here, for example.) A “Lehman moment” refers to the former 158-year old Wall Street investment bank, Lehman Brothers, collapsing into bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 during a widening financial crisis on Wall Street. Because Lehman was the only major Wall Street firm that the Fed allowed to collapse into bankruptcy (rather than orchestrating a bailout), it has been mistakenly viewed all these years as the catalyst for the carnage that followed. As we will explain shortly, that role rightfully belongs to Citigroup. According to documents released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), at the time of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy it had more than 900,000 derivative contracts outstanding and had used the largest banks on Wall Street as its counterparties to many of these trades. The FCIC data shows that Lehman had more than 53,000 derivative contracts with JPMorgan Chase; more than 40,000 with Morgan Stanley; over 24,000 with Citigroup’s Citibank; over 23,000 with Bank of America; and almost 19,000 with Goldman Sachs. Below is a share price chart of what contagion looked like on Wall Street in 2008. Notice the highly correlated share price pattern in 2008 and the highly correlated share price pattern in the chart above in 2022… […] …This morning the Bank of England is in full blown crisis mode, setting up another emergency bailout facility that is very similar to that used by the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis. And, once again, derivatives are at the heart of the problem.For its part, the Fed announced last year that it had, for the first time in its 109-year history, created a Standing Repo Facility where, on a permanent basis it will make $500 billion available to bail out the hubris on Wall Street. The Fed Chair has the power to increase that $500 billion on a temporary basis at his “discretion.”And if all of this wasn’t sickening enough, the Fed Chairman who set the Fed on the course of endless Wall Street bailouts, quantitative easing, and destructive meddling in markets — Ben Bernanke — was one of three receiving the Nobel Prize in economic sciences this morning. (You can’t make this stuff up.)It’s long past the time for the United States Congress to put an end to these serial bailouts of Wall Street by the Fed and pass legislation to restore the Glass-Steagall Act so that the casinos on Wall Street are permanently separated from the nation’s federally-insured banks.
IMF points to growing dangers in key area of financial system - A chapter in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Global Financial Stability Report prepared for this week’s semi-annual meeting in Washington has identified the source of a potential crisis for the global financial system. It concerns the operation of open-ended investment funds (OEFs) which allow investors daily redemptions of their investments while the funds invest in long-term illiquid assets that cannot be turned quickly into cash. The mismatch between the conflicting short-term and long-term nature of investments is a permanent feature of financial markets and has always been a major factor in financial turmoil. But the growth of OEF funds means they have become much more significant in the past decade and a half. Summarising their expansion, the report said: “Since the global financial crisis, there has been a remarkable growth in the open-ended investment funds. The total value of their net assets has quadrupled since 2008, reaching $41 trillion in the first quarter of 2022 and accounting for approximately one-fifth of the assets of the nonbank financial sector.” While such funds play an important role in financial markets, it said, “those that offer daily redemptions while holding illiquid assets can amplify the effects of adverse shocks by raising the likelihood of investor runs and asset fire sales. This contributes to volatility in asset markets and potentially threatens financial stability.” The rise of these funds exemplifies a now well-established process in which attempts by governments and regulatory authorities to control one area of disruption leads to its re-emergence in another area as finance capital, ever involved in the search for profit, seeks new avenues for speculation. Major banks were at the centre of the financial crisis of 2008 and measures were put in place to curb some of their more egregious speculative activities. But as the IMF report explained, the growth of OEFs “reflects the increasing shift in financial intermediation from banks to nonbank financial institutions, which can be attributed at least in part to the tighter regulations on banks as well as balance sheet deleveraging following the global financial crisis.” It noted that OEFs generally invest in equities in the advanced economies but “the share of funds investing in relatively less liquid assets, such as corporate bonds or emerging market bonds and equities, has been rising rapidly. Financial stability concerns about OEFs arose during the financial market turmoil in March 2020, at the start of the pandemic. The “resilience” of the sector “may be tested again if financial conditions tighten abruptly as central banks normalize the stance of monetary policy.” Already the interest-rate hikes by the Fed and almost all other central banks, characterised by economic historian Adam Tooze as “the most comprehensive tightening of monetary policy the world has seen,” have resulted in large outflows from high-yield corporate bonds and emerging market equity and bond funds. The IMF analysis noted that despite financial stability risks, “effective implementation of policy measures or regulatory authorities to mitigate the vulnerabilities associated with OEFs holding illiquid assets has been lacking.” An existential problem facing any would-be reformers, however, is rooted in the very nature of this sector of the financial markets. It was laid out by former Bank of England governor Mark Carney to a UK parliamentary hearing in June 2019—well before the pandemic and associated financial turmoil had appeared—into the collapse of a British equity fund. The structure of such funds was a “big deal” and “you can see something that is systemic.”
Wall Street bankers told they can set own CO2 terms after spat -The world's biggest climate-finance alliance has sought to dismiss reports that a number of Wall Street banks are threatening to leave, as it races to bring its house in order in the run-up to next month's COP27 climate summit. In a statement to Bloomberg News on Saturday, a spokesperson for the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero said the group has "received no indication from any of our members that they intend to leave." GFANZ, which brings together over 500 finance firms managing more than $135 trillion of assets, has faced possible defections from firms including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, according to people familiar with the process. The heavyweights were unhappy with the potential addition of binding restrictions on fossil finance, the people said. Tensions soared after a United Nations-backed group, Race to Zero, earlier this year proposed such terms as a necessary condition for net-zero claims to be credible. That language was subsequently softened, and in its statement on Saturday, GFANZ said each suballiance of the group is "subject only to their own governance structures," essentially giving them the freedom to ignore such proposals. Mark Carney, GFANZ co-chair, has already publicly admonished Race to Zero for going "too far." Jakob Thomae, an advisory board member of GFANZ, says he expects parts of GFANZ will eventually sever ties with Race to Zero and seek a more tailored decarbonization methodology to appease members. But there are already concerns being raised in some corners that the ostensible sidelining of science represents a worrying development. Al Gore, the former U.S. vice president turned climate activist, last month warned that investors are growing increasingly impatient with evidence of potential "greenwashing" amid signs that net-zero pledges made by some members of the financial industry aren't credible.
Banks try quiet quitting on net zero -For some bankers, net zero is like a new year's resolution — a pledge one makes and often breaks before a year has passed.Several of the largest banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, headed into the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) as members of the world's biggest zero-carbon finance club. Their membership in the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a group of roughly 500 financial sector entities, publicly committed their banks to reach net-zero carbon emissions by midcentury.By September they were among a faction ready to quit, according to sources familiar with the matter. JPMorgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.A year on from COP26, some big banks seem worried they jumped on the bandwagon too soon, especially as oil and gas companies have experienced a market resurgence. What makes the prospect of net zero — or at least the vow to come up with near-term benchmarks toward that goal — such an anxiety-provoking proposition? Read more: World's Big Polluters Talk Up Net-Zero With Little to ShowThe revived fortunes of fossil fuels, especially coal, may explain some of the weakened resolve for decarbonization. Global bank lending to fossil fuel companies is up 15%, to over $300 billion, in the first nine months of this year, from the same period in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.This is Wall Street just doing its job: making money. Banks earned more than $1 billion in revenue from fossil lending during the first three quarters, in line with 2021. Why quit business with a booming sector over a distant climate goal?Harald Walkate, the former head of environmental, social, and governance investing at Natixis Investment Managers and now a sustainable finance consultant, says some banks may feel their hands are tied as their fiduciary duty requires them to maximize financial value for clients."While from an ethical or ideological perspective many people might not like the idea of investing in fossil fuels, it's certainly not illegal," he says. "And it may in fact be very good business for some time to come."
BlackRock, Citi CEOs won't be returning to key climate talks - The biggest climate event of the calendar looks set to draw far fewer chief executives than it did just a year ago. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink won't be at the COP27 summit in Egypt next month and will instead attend a meeting of the firm's board of directors, according to people familiar with his plans. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser will also stay away, as will Bill Winters of Standard Chartered, spokespeople for the banks said. All three made a point of attending in 2021. They lead a long list of top-level executives giving this year's summit a lower priority, according to responses gathered by Bloomberg News based on current plans. BlackRock and others will instead be sending delegations consisting of lower-tier representatives, according to spokespeople for the firms. Standard Chartered will send its chief sustainability officer, Marisa Drew. BlackRock, which has yet to settle on who will be going, said it "looks forward to having a meaningful, senior presence at COP27 to engage with key stakeholders on one of the biggest themes for our clients," in an emailed statement. Fink was the star appearance last year as the heavyweights of big finance made their way to COP26 in Scotland to declare their commitment to slashing emissions. Former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney had predicted that sustainable finance would make the leap "to the C-suite" and, as if to prove him right, Fink made a big impression at COP26, donning a polka-dot tie and brown hiking boots as he discussed the dangers of greenwashing.
BankThink: Don't delay public input on Fed's review of capital requirements | American Banker - Last month, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr outlined the Federal Reserve's agenda to make the financial system safer and fairer by improving banks' safety and soundness. Barr called for a holistic review of the bank capital framework, including a review of leverage and capital requirements for large banks. We welcome the Fed's review. And we urge the Fed to be more transparent about it. Mr. Barr is right. Currently, the U.S. capital framework is comprised of a dizzying array of moving parts: risk-weighted assets, stress capital buffers, surcharges on global systemically important banks, countercyclical buffers and leverage buffers, just to name a few.All these requirements are implemented separately, sometimes with several years between rules. No singular element of the capital regime determines overall capital requirements — rather, the various constraints knit together in complex and unpredictable ways to determine the overall amount of capital required of large banks.Given that capital requirements strongly influence the cost and amount of lending by banks in our economy, getting the mix of requirements right is critical, as is transparency around this process. Right now, all we know is that the Fed expects to complete its review this fall, and will only seek public input on proposed capital rules that are informed by the findings of the review after it is complete. We don't know much about how the review is being conducted, but we do know it is happening quickly — and without public input.But waiting for public input until so late in the game — once the direction of travel is set — is too late and risks consequential errors based on a lack of full information. The Federal Reserve should commit to seeking public feedback on its holistic review of the capital framework before the review is finalized and before any subsequent capital rules are proposed.
BankThink: Banks can't have their capital and use it, too | American Banker - I've got some breaking news to share: Interest rates are going to keep going up. But don't take my word for it — most Fed watchers are expecting another 75-basis-point hike out of the Federal Open Market Committee in November, another 50-point hike in December and yet another 25-point jump in February 2023.Whether all of that comes to pass is of course uncertain, and the specific timing of the FOMC's premeditated murder of inflation matters less than its solemn oath to end it no matter the cost. And those costs may well be severe — JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon this week said that the U.S. could be headed into a recession in the coming year because of a combination of factors, not least of which is the increased cost of borrowing wrought by the FOMC.I will leave it to others to determine whether the FOMC's plan of attack is ideal or whether it could have done things differently to achieve a better result. The Fed is like the college dorm residential assistant that breaks up the party — it is empowered to make necessary decisions that by definition make it unpopular in the short term in the name of achieving a long-term objective. But the Fed's role as the steward of monetary policy is rapidly approaching a point where it will be in conflict with its role as a regulator of banks, and the sooner both sides of the house are singing from the same sheet music the better off we all will be.We don't always appreciate just how much bank regulation has changed in the last 15 years. Before 2008 there were no stress tests, there was no supplemental leverage ratio, there were no global systemically important banks, and there was no Basel III. Once the global economy was stabilized with zillions in bailout money from governments all over the world, regulators turned to the important work of engineering a set of banking rules that would ensure that nothing like that ever happened again. What they came up with was an elaborate system that created offramps for failed banks, controls for the over-the-counter swaps market, prudential rules for financial market utilities, and lots of other neat stuff. But the first lines of defense were dramatically increased capital requirements and greatly increased liquidity, and if banks were found to not be holding sufficient capital and/or liquidity, they would face supervisory actions — including, but not limited to, a freeze on dividend payouts.In good times, that makes sense — if the Coast Guard boards your boat and finds that the fire extinguisher is empty, it makes you get a new one. But if your boat is on fire and you're using your fire extinguisher to put it out, it doesn't make sense for authorities to board your boat and give you a ticket for not having a full fire extinguisher.
Fed, FDIC propose large-bank resolution reforms, approve U.S. Bank acquisition -Bank regulators approved a merger between U.S. Bank and Union-MUFG Friday while simultaneously introducing new standards for large banks' resolution plans.In a joint statement released Friday, the agencies announced they would seek public comment on a host of potential changes to how some large banks should prepare themselves for potential future failures or bankruptcies.Potential changes include a requirement that large bank organizations, also known as large regional banks or domestic systemically important banks, hold certain types of long-term debt to absorb losses. The agencies are also considering whether these banks should face modified versions of several standards already applied to larger, global systemically important banks, or G-SIBs Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said the growth in size and complexity of the banks in the target range — those with between roughly $250 billion and $700 billion — in recent years raises concerns. Because of this, she said, a review of resolution standards is warranted."Since we know from experience that even non-complex banks in that range can pose risks to the broader financial system when they experience financial distress, I am encouraged that the Board is seeking comment on an advance proposal to improve their resolvability through long-term debt requirements and is undertaking a serious review of large bank capital requirements," Brainard said in a statement.The Fed is seeking public feedback on proposed changes such as a requirement that large banks be subjected to some level of "clean" holding company requirements, resolution guidance and disclosure requirements, all of which imposed on GSIBs. It also considers separability requirements, that would have large banks sell off parts of its business to avoid needing to be acquired outright by another firm. The proposal does not call for large banks to hold total loss-absorbing capital, a requirement for GSIBs that some policy specialists have floated as a potential option for large-bank resolution. The joint announcement from the Fed and FDIC comes roughly two weeks after the agenciessaid they would embark on updating requirements on resolution plans, also known as living wills, for large, non-GSIB banks.The proposed rule came just as the Federal Reserve Board and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced the approval of U.S. Bancorp's application to acquire MUFG-Union Bank, which included the stipulation that U.S. Bank provide the Fed and FDIC with an updated resolution plan and its implementation plan to meet heightened regulatory standards.
TD Bank will expand small-dollar lending through Canada's postal service - Postal banking is just an idea in the United States, but it's taking form in America's northern neighbor. Toronto-Dominion Bank, which has assets of 1.8 trillion Canadian dollars ($1.3 trillion U.S.), said Wednesday it is partnering with Canada's postal service to offer low-cost loans for amounts as small as 1,000 Canadian dollars. TD and Canada Post said strong consumer demand during a three-month market test encouraged them to offer the loan, called the Canada Post MyMoney Loan, nationwide. "We were really surprised by the demand for the product, which, frankly, exceeded our expectations," said Michael Yee, vice president of financial services at Canada Post. Canadian post office A small post office in Carcross, Yukon. Canada Post handles more than 5 million financial transactions annually, including money orders and remittances, and has been eyeing additional offerings.Adobe Stock Canadians of all income levels and credit scores applied for the unsecured loan. Applicants said they planned to use the funds to cover emergency expenses including car repairs and veterinarian bills. The product is intended to reach all Canadians, especially those in rural, remote and Indigenous communities who may not have local access to affordable loans, officials said. Attempts at combining banking services with the scale of the United States Postal Service have so far been met with slow uptake and resistance from the banking industry. In the U.S., proposals for the Postal Service to engage in financial services have ranged from limited services such as check cashing to fully insured financial arms capable of taking deposits and making loans without the presence of a bank as a backer. The alliance like the one between TD and Canada Post hasn't been tried stateside.
OCC's Hsu warns against commingling banks and crypto — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu warned against crypto firms integrating with the traditional financial system, saying that crypto companies often "disguise" their products as being similar to banking ones. To that end, he promoted a cautious view of regulating digital assets, and said that bringing crypto into the regulatory perimeter would only help tame crypto's risks depending "on whose terms it is brought in." "Using the familiar to introduce something novel can downplay or mask the risks involved and establish false expectations," Hsu said. "In time, people get hurt." While the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's authority is limited to banks' interactions with crypto on the digital assets regulation front, that still leaves the agency with several important sets of guidance and rulemakings that could have a big impact on crypto firms' ability to scale in the United States. The agency is currently under pressure on several fronts to reconsider Trump-era guidance that allowed banks to explore crypto-related banking activity. Hsu, speaking at DC Fintech Week Tuesday, described some behind-the-scenes interactions between crypto companies and banking regulators. He said that in July, a representative from FTX submitted a proposal to the Financial Stability Oversight Council and argued that integrating crypto and the traditional banking sector would enhance financial stability, Hsu said. "I could not disagree more," Hsu said. "Crypto today is an immature industry based on an immature technology." Hsu also took issue with crypto firms that are attempting to integrate their products. That includes companies that are trying to get customers to use their digital wallets as well as their platforms for buying and selling crypto; issuing stablecoins; and a number of other activities. "While commingling these activities may offer convenience for consumers and cost savings for crypto firms, conflicts abound and the riskiest activity threatens the whole bundle," Hsu said. "Consider the recent failures of Three Arrows Capital, Celsius and Voyager Digital. All three engaged in a range of crypto activities, from crypto custody to borrowing and lending to proprietary trading."
House Republicans press OCC's Hsu on bank-fintech partnerships — A group of House Republicans led by House Financial Services Committee ranking member Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., wrote a letter to acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu criticizing his recent comments about bank-fintech partnerships. Hsu recently suggested that increasingly complex bank-fintech partnerships could set the stage for another financial crisis, and said that he's concerned with the growing integration of fintechs that facilitate everything from payments, online lending and deposit-taking activities. The lawmakers ask Hsu to elaborate on what risk the acting Comptroller believes fintech-bank partnerships pose, "or if it is a byproduct of success in meeting consumer demand." After the 2022 midterms, McHenry is widely expected to take the chair spot on the House Financial Services Committee. In the past, he's suggested that a priority of his committee would be to clarify rules for fintech firms, as well as targeting President Biden's financial regulators for criticism. In their letter, McHenry, along with other Republicans on the fintech task force including Reps. Warren Davidson ofOhio, Pete Sessions of Texas, Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, said that the OCC hasn't been active in defining the parameters for banks and fintech firms to partner. "Under the previous administration, the OCC worked to provide banks and their customers with a clear understanding of the regulatory and supervisory expectations surrounding emerging products and services and how to properly assess risk," they wrote. "While we expected the OCC to continue to provide clear rules of the road and support innovative banking services, such has not been the case." The lawmakers ask if the OCC expects any fintech partnerships "will cease to exist" as a result of potential regulatory changes, and how the agency will "ensure that examiners do not discourage innovation through fintech partnerships." Answers to these questions and to a range of others about how the OCC will oversee bank-fintech partnerships were requested by Oct. 31.
Custodia cries foul over regulators giving BNYMellon green light for crypto - A Wyoming-chartered digital asset bank has accused the Federal Reserve of playing favorites in deciding which institutions can custody crypto assets. Custodia Bank, in a memorandum filed in the U.S. District Court of Wyoming on Wednesday, argued that the Bank of New York Mellon's newly launched crypto custody service demonstrates a double standard by the central bank that puts upstart firms at a disadvantage to legacy banks. "Last week, the Federal Reserve told a federal judge that keeping custody of digital assets like Bitcoin posed a 'novel, precedent-setting risk.' This week, the Fed allowed BNY Mellon to do the exact same thing," Nathan Miller, a spokesperson for Custodia, said in a statement. "So, it has one rule for innovators like Custodia Bank, and another for the nation's oldest bank. After waiting more than 24 months, we are seeking nothing more than fair and equal treatment." Custodia, which aims to provide crypto custody and digital asset payment services, is suing the Fed over its pending application for membership with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and access to the Fed's payment system. The firm is hoping to compel the Fed to make a decision on its master account bid. In court filings, the Fed said Custodia's business model "raises technical, complex, and novel issues that present risk" to the Kansas City Fed and the broader reserve system. The central bank has told the court it needs more time to weigh these risks before reaching a final decision about Custodia's application. Allowing BNY Mellon to custody cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether contradicts this stance, Custodia argued in its memo, and shows that the Fed is not giving fair treatment to upstart firms or Wyoming's special-purpose depository institutions, a relatively new charter the state devised specifically for digital-asset banks.
BankThink: To keep flourishing, crypto needs a self-regulatory organization - Now that the global cryptocurrency marketplace has experienced its first boom-and-bust cycle, it is the perfect time for critics and believers alike to reflect on the lessons learned and establish principles to ensure that decentralized finance can mature into a useful and long-lasting element of modern society. At this critical juncture, ensuring full realization of the "DeFi" revolution will require the creation of a well-equipped nongovernmental self-regulatory organization, or SRO, charged with ensuring system security, privacy, and stability while building trust among regulators and the general public. Cryptocurrency Kiosks Ahead of Ethereum Merge Angel Garcia/Bloomberg While some in the digital-asset space have strongly resisted any sort of governmental interaction and oversight, it is now apparent that for digital currencies to become ubiquitous, some degree of coordination with policymakers is necessary to draw bright lines between legitimate crypto activities and the existing federal banking system. Since it is highly unlikely that federal regulators will sit back and allow the crypto industry to remain largely unregulated, a preemptive move to establish an SRO could bring some necessary safeguards into the system while holding off burdensome intrusion from the federal government which would jeopardize the entire crypto project. An SRO could be conceived as a proactive buffer between crypto users and federal regulators to maintain an appropriate balance between privacy and security. This function could also prevent systematic government surveillance or interference with the private financial activities occurring over blockchains, while ensuring that regulators can only access account and payment information with warrants delivered by the check and balance of the judicial system. The concept of a SRO is not new to finance, or indeed to crypto. The securities industry long ago worked with policymakers to create the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the National Futures Association, which have proven to be highly functional and reliable models. Indeed, there have been a handful of attempts at forming cryptocurrency SROs, most notably the Virtual Commodities Agency proposed by the investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, but none of these projects have gained traction to this point. Any SRO that does materialize should be governed and staffed by people who deeply value decentralized finance and the importance of maintaining the free flow of commerce with minimal surveillance and control. At the same time, these staff must also understand the value of establishing a strong framework of rules and expectations as the latticework on which a flourishing crypto ecosystem can grow. We've all just seen what a crypto boom market looks like without this structure — it grows into a tangled mess of weeds that sags under its own weight, leaving many of its holders in financial hardship.
The software used in bitcoin mining is getting its first big makeover in more than a decade --Software used in bitcoin mining just got its first upgrade since late 2012, and a coalition of companies including payments giant Block (formerly Square) is trying to help push the open-source protocol forward to become an industry standard. The move could help open bitcoin mining to more participants by supporting lower-quality internet connections, as well as improving security so miners get properly compensated for their work. Bitcoin operates on a proof-of-work mining model, meaning that miners around the world run high-powered computers to create new bitcoin and validate transactions. Mining requires professional-grade equipment, some technical know-how, a lot of electricity and a special kind of software. Rather than directly accessing the bitcoin protocol, the vast majority of miners today work through an intermediary protocol called Stratum, which facilitates communication between the bitcoin network, miners, and the mining pools that combine the hashing power of thousands of miners all over the world. Miners use Stratum to submit their work and to collect a reward if they successfully complete a new block of transactions. On Tuesday, a coalition of bitcoin developers is releasing version 2 of Stratum under an open-source license for the mining industry to evaluate and test. It will take some work to convince the mining industry to adopt the new protocol, so Spiral — a subsidiary of Jack Dorsey's payments company Block (formerly Square) — is teaming up with bitcoin mining company Braiins to launch a group to test and fine-tune the open-source software before they push mass adoption.
Warren, Dems seek answers on crypto impact on Texas grid - Democrats led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren are probing how the cryptocurrency mining industry affects the main Texas grid, citing concerns about reliability and climate change.In a Wednesday letter, Warren and six other Democratic lawmakers asked the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) for data on the power used by crypto mining operations, the associated carbon dioxide emissions and the impact on electricity costs to Texans.The letter also asked for details on payments to cryptocurrency mining companies for curtailing their energy use under programs that kick in for industrial customers when power supplies are tight. Critics have raised concerns that miners — particularly those for the energy-intensive Bitcoin currency — were given hefty subsidies for curtailing use this summer during heat waves, which also helped the crypto industry avoid higher electricity prices.“In simple terms, the Bitcoin miners make money from mining that produces major strains on the electric grid: and during peak demand when the profitability of continuing to mine decreases, they then collect subsidies in the form of demand response payments when they shut off their mining operations and do nothing,” the Democratic legislators said in the letter.The payments, the Democrats added, “contribute to a larger issue of having consumers, rather than industries with outsized electricity demand like cryptominers, bear the costs of maintaining the electricity grid.”Texas has become a hub for cryptocurrency miners, fueling concerns about the electricity grid. Crypto mining operations require large amounts of electricity and run virtually around the clock. That can sometimes force grid operators to start up natural gas- or coal-fired power plants that would otherwise be idled.Industrial-scale crypto miners use an estimated 2 gigawatts of power on the grid in Texas already, according to an April presentation by the Texas Blockchain Council. There are 1,000 megawatts in a gigawatt. One megawatt can power about 200 homes during peak demand, according to ERCOT, whose region accounts for about 90 percent of the state’s power load. ERCOT estimates that another 27 GW of crypto operations could be added to the grid by 2026, an amount representing about a third of the grid’s normal peak demand.
Open source to open door: Software emerges as risk to the grid - The worst computer vulnerability in recent years was in a ubiquitous piece of open-source software — a bug that was as simple to exploit as it was difficult to patch. The Apache Log4j security flaw opened the door to millions of computers, but the extent of the damage still isn’t fully understood. Nearly a year later, federal officials and Congress are still discussing how to avoid another potential disaster. Open source, which is code that is “open” to everyone to use or edit, can be found in nearly every type of modern technology. It has served as the backbone of the internet, and is pervasive throughout the economy — including in the energy sector. That makes it a looming issue for energy cybersecurity. “Of course, [the Energy Department] is concerned about open-source software,” said Cheri Caddy, a former senior adviser at DOE who is currently director of cyber policy and plans at the Office of the National Cyber Director. “Open-source software is a part of all software development, whether it’s [operational technology] or IT. It’s just ubiquitous in everything now.” The Log4j security lapse highlighted some of the key concerns: The development team was small, the software was found in nearly every industry, and many companies were unsure if they even had the code in their products. The problem, experts say, is not that open source is inherently less secure than proprietary software. It’s not. But a few lines of code can be adopted throughout an entire industry. When those few lines contain a serious vulnerability, that can be a problem for critical infrastructure, including the grid. It can become an open door that allows malicious hackers to walk into critical systems — especially when utilities aren’t aware that the door even exists. In the energy sector, open-source software is everywhere, said Virginia Wright, an energy cybersecurity portfolio program manager at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Wright manages a DOE grid vulnerability testing bed called Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS). The program, run by six DOE labs and led by INL, ferrets out vulnerabilities in the software that runs the power grid. “One hundred percent of the systems that we have looked at have contained open-source software,” Wright said. CyTRICS works on a voluntary basis with some of the biggest grid equipment manufacturers, like Hitachi Energy and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories. Once a vulnerability is found, the lab reaches out to the manufacturers with potential mitigation measures to help patch the bug. Sometimes that includes publicly known vulnerabilities. Because open-source software is freely available and widely used, vendors may not be aware that a vulnerability and patch even exist, Wright said. Wright said that the labs have seen grid equipment vendors selling older versions of their products with known vulnerabilities and fixes. Some of that software is even updated in those vendors’ own systems, and their customers are “buying it with all of the vulnerabilities attached,” Wright said.
FHFA suspends counterparties with ties to title or REO scams -The Federal Housing Finance Agency this week suspended business with certain individuals found guilty in court of involvement with scams regarding mortgaged properties, and in some cases, distressed borrowers. Among those added to the FHFA's list of suspended counterparties were Patrick Joseph Soria, who was sentenced to over 10 years in prison for a loan relief scheme, and Peter Michno, a broker involved in improprieties involving the sale of real-estate owned properties. These types of scams point to issues that may become more prominent as the market re-evaluates how title risks can best be managed, and tackles the backlog of foreclosures and distressed borrowers who went into forbearance during the pandemic. In the case of Soria, false ownership documentation was used in conjunction with purported loan relief services he offered, and when borrowers sent him payments through interstate wire services and other means, he used the money for personal purposes. Entities that have ties to Soria and also have been suspended as counterparties include Bank of New York Mellon Trustee, Beverly Hills, California. (That entity has a similar name but is not to be confused with The Bank of New York Mellon, a common industry provider of trust services.) The FHFA also suspended Homeowner Help Initiative-Mortgage Protection Network and Wilmington Savings Fund Society in Beverly Hills, California as counterparties due to their ties to Soria. Soria himself operated under various assumed names including David Olsen, Daniel Olsen, Spenser Ferguson, and Steven Wright, the FHFA noted. In the case of Michno, the courts found that he paid bribes and kickbacks to Fannie Mae — one of the government-sponsored enterprises that the FHFA oversees — for the acceptance of below-market offers by him or his affiliates on foreclosure properties. The FHFA also suspended as a counterparty S&P Associates, a property management company in Livermore, California, due to its ties to Michno. Another individual suspended by the agency this week was Victor Hugo Torres. The courts found that Torres was involved in the fraudulent refinancing of a mortgage on an income-producing property. Torres had made false statements in denying, when asked, if the principal owners of the property were involved in bankruptcy proceedings in the last 10 years. He also falsified check images within the debtor's (Huntington Properties') bank statements, according to the FHFA. The FHFA suspended these counterparties for at least five years. All its orders were final and allow certain exceptions related to residential mortgages, such as ones taken out for suspended individuals' personal use on their own homes.
Big banks, nonbanks largely absent from FHFA's Home Loan bank inquiry - Dozens of community bankers flocked to Washington this past week to discuss the relevance of the Federal Home Loan Bank System. The regulatory review may determine whether the little-known but politically powerful cooperative is fulfilling its congressionally mandated mission to "provide reliable liquidity to its member institutions to support housing finance and community investment." One by one, small community bankers and housing experts spoke virtually or from a lectern in the high-ceilinged auditorium at Constitution Center the headquarters of the banks' regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. FHFA Director Sandra Thompson this summer launched the first review of the Federal Home Loan Bank System in nearly 100 years. The review may result in changes to the Home Loan banks, a group of 11 regional banks across the country that provide liquidity to banks but whose continued relevance has increasingly been called into question. Of the 85 speakers who were each given just six minutes to talk as part of a three-day "listening session" by the FHFA, roughly 75 were either community bankers that are members of the system or nonprofit housing groups that rely on the system for affordable housing grants. Many spoke about the need to "do no harm" to a system that provides low-cost funding and local expertise. "The Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines has been instrumental in our growth — we are thriving," said Deron Burr, president and CEO at People's Bank of Seneca, a $360 million-asset bank in Seneca, Missouri, which is majority-owned by the Eastern Shawnee Indian Tribe of Oklahoma. Elizabeth Albano, president and CEO of Artisans' Bank, said her mutual institution uses FHLB advances as a main funding source in addition to deposits."If mutual-owned banks did not have access to the FHLB we would have to reduce our small-business lending," Albano said at one of the listening sessions. "Access to FHLB products supports interest rate risk and allows us to compete."
Rising interest rates put community banks in regulatory bind with FHFA rule -Rising interest rates are forcing some community banks to make market adjustments that could restrict funding from the Federal Home Loan banks, prompting some bank trade groups to warn of a potential liquidity crisis going forward.Roughly 100 community banks are expected to report negative tangible capital on call report data that is due at the end of October, experts said. Banks reporting negative tangible capital are required to get a waiver in writing from their prudential regulator in order to access low-cost advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank System. While some bankers are characterizing the issue as a conflict between regulatory rules, the continued rise in interest rates could push more banks to report negative tangible capital going forward. "It's causing an unnecessary and completely avoidable liquidity issue at some community banks," said David Schroeder, senior vice president of federal government relations at the Community Bankers Association of Illinois. Some community banks could lose access to mortgage advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank System because of rising interest rates and a quirk in the way the Federal Housing Finance Agency determines eligibility for advances.Tangible capital is the most conservative way to look at a snapshot of a bank's financial health, though many other measures are used as well. Banks are required to measure the fair value of their investments on call report data submitted to prudential regulators. Due to higher interest rates, some banks are reporting mark-to-market adjustments on investments held in portfolio — typically high-quality Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities — that are resulting in unrealized losses. The mark-to-market adjustments are bucking up against a rule enacted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the aftermath of the savings and loan crisis. The FHFA's tangible capital rule restricts the ability of banks with negative tangible capital from tapping both new FHLB advances and from renewing existing advances beyond 30 days unless the bank's prudential regulator agrees to a waiver. Bankers say the mark-to-market adjustments are a paper loss that assumes a liquidation of a bank's securities — losses are only realized if a bank sells the securities. As an alternative, banks could move the securities from a held-for-sale account to a held-for-maturity account, experts said.
The USDA's outdated underwriting system is hobbling rural lending - Qualifying a borrower for the Rural Housing Service's 502 Guaranteed loan is not an easy feat. Those who apply for the loan have to tick off numerous boxes, including having a maximum income of a little over $100,000 and not being able to qualify for a conventional mortgage. But lenders say that using the Department of Agriculture's "not intuitive," "confusing" and "cumbersome" technology, dubbed the Guaranteed Underwriting System (GUS), complicates things even further and is serving to discourage them from offering such loans. "It's just a lot more complicated and there's a lot more steps," said Jonas Pritchard, a loan officer at Scenic Oak Funding. "And just like anything in life, if something's easy and something's not, what are most people going to choose?" Stakeholders in the industry also say the platform, originally launched in 2006, has not kept up with the pace of enhancements of other automated underwriting systems, such as Fannie Mae's Desktop Underwriter and Freddie Mac's Loan Product Advisor. As a result, the RHS' loan program, which plays a vital role in providing mortgage credit for rural communities, may continue to be underused. Last year, USDA loan volume made up a mere 0.49% of all mortgage originations, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. In 2021, the USDA made some upgrades to GUS, but a lack of resources continue to complicate the agency's efforts to modernize their automated underwriting system. "We are committed to getting it completed to further streamline the loan process and to make the system more accessible for everyone who uses it," the USDA spokesperson said. They note though that "this is a huge undertaking" and upgrades will "require a significant amount of time."
Minority farmers' lawsuit claims U.S. reneged on loan-relief plan - Minority farmers who sought to take advantage of a U.S. debt-assistance program claim in a lawsuit that the government failed to provide any of the promised relief and reneged on a deal to resolve their discrimination claims. Black, Native American and Hispanic farmers have been denied debt relief promised to them in the massive COVID-19 relief bill passed in 2021, according to a suit seeking class-action status filed by four farmers last week in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. The American Rescue Plan Act initially included a provision to relieve certain debt held by minority farmers, designed to account for a history of discrimination in the U.S. Agriculture Department when it comes to doling out aid. The USDA sent letters to minority farmers outlining the terms of the agreement, including a calculation of their eligible debt and the government's promise to pay it off, according to the suit filed by farmers. One of them, Princess Williams, said she was set to receive $373,154. Another, Lester Bonner, said he was promised $24,749. But that relief never came. Groups of white farmers in Wisconsin, Florida and elsewhere sued to block the program, arguing it was racially biased against them. America First Legal, a conservative legal group launched by former top Trump aides Stephen Miller and Mark Meadows, also challenged the program in court. Before funds could be distributed, a federal judge in Florida issued an injunction halting the program, finding the plaintiffs were likely to win if the case went to trial. In August, Congress rewrote the relevant section to no longer mention race. In its place, they passed provisions providing both loan relief for distressed borrowers and aid for producers who have experienced discrimination. "I wish that right-wing extremists and activist judges had not held up the debt forgiveness we passed in the American Rescue Plan," Democratic Sen. Cory Booker said in a statement in August. "But it was clear that those resources were going to be held up in court for years, with an uncertain outcome at the conclusion."
Foreclosure numbers rise, but aren't turning into repos - Foreclosure activity inched up closer to pre-pandemic pace in the third quarter, but a robust jobs market has kept repossessions at a minimum, according to real estate data solutions provider Attom. Between July and September, foreclosure filings, such as default notices, auctions or repossessions, were reported for 92,634 properties, or one in every 1,517, up almost 3% from 90,139 in the second quarter. Numbers were 104% higher compared to the same three months last year, when a foreclosure moratorium had just been lifted. New foreclosure starts, meanwhile, totaled 67,249 in the third quarter, a 1% uptick from the prior three months and 167% above levels of a year ago. While numbers continue to rise, they have not yet surpassed the mark set before the pandemic, according to Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for Attom. "Foreclosure activity is reflecting other aspects of the economy, as unemployment rates continue to be historically low, and mortgage delinquency rates are lower than they were before the COVID-19 outbreak," he said in a press release. Current economic trends and record levels of equity available to homeowners has led to fewer foreclosure notices turning into repossessions over the past several months when compared to historical numbers. Nearly three times more homes were repossessed by lenders in the second quarter of 2019 than in the same period this year, Sharga said. "We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction," Sharga said. Home equity among U.S. homeowners hit another record of $11.5 trillion at the end of the second quarter, according to mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight, but the value has likely fallen since. Only 10,515 U.S. properties ended up in repossession during the third quarter, up 18% from three months earlier and 39% from a year ago. The largest number occurred in Illinois, which had 1,331, followed by Michigan at 729 and New York at 695. Foreclosure completions dwindled as the quarter went on with 3,509 in September, down 11% from August. California posted the most new starts, though, with 7,368, ahead of Florida at 6,671 and Texas with 6,217. Overall, foreclosure filings were most prevalent during the third quarter in Illinois, where one in every 694 housing units received a notice, followed by Delaware with one in every 825, and New Jersey at one in every 855. The average length of time to complete the foreclosure process also decreased in the third quarter, falling approximately 7% to 885 days from 948 between April and June, and 4% year over year from 924.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae tweak automation around servicing procedures - Fannie Mae has released some changes to servicing requirements that will include new mandatory procedures for trial modifications, mortgage assistance, and cramdowns.While the procedural changes are relatively minor, compliance is crucial to servicers given the regulatory attention around their ability to provide continuity of care to distressed borrowers in particular. In instances where assistance fully reinstates the loan, servicers working with the government-sponsored enterprise have been canceling the plan. But under a policy change that's effective immediately and becomes mandatory on Dec. 1, they must instead contact Fannie online through its loss mitigation email for assistance in processing a trial mod.In situations where bankruptcy courts force creditors to accept new loan terms, servicers have been filling out an online template with information about the cramdown when it occurs. On a go-forward basis, they'll be able to use Fannie's Servicing Management Default Underwriter technology for this purpose. Use of the automation for this purpose will become mandatory in March of next year.Freddie Mac also is changing some of its servicing procedures as it builds out system functionality around post-forbearance workouts such as modifications, which are aimed as making loans more affordable to those with long-term hardships, or transitions into payment deferrals. Deferrals postpone payment of forborne amounts and allow borrowers to resume regular loan payments. Freddie plans to be able to process Flex Modification requests for trial plan approval and eligibility through a user interface it has called Resolve by Dec. 5, and add functionality to settle mods some time in the first quarter of next year. By the second quarter of 2023, it plans to be processing deferrals through Resolve. The GSE is setting July 31, 2023 as the deadline for migrating the processing of Flex Mods and deferrals to either Resolve or its Retention application programming interface.
Florida's Insurance Industry Is in Crisis | The New Republic --The full extent of the damage caused by Hurricane Ian is still being tallied. The death toll—which now stands at 120—rises by the day. As those living in the storm’s path attempt to rebuild, they may now also have to deal with the downstream effects of a crisis in pristine, far-off boardrooms. According to a new analysis by Stonybrook Capital, Ian may be the single biggest insured loss ever, totaling an estimated $75 billion. The company warns that the effect on the insurance market could be “profound and widespread.”For years, the insurance industry has devised increasingly complex waysto maintain a steady stream of profits. But as climate-fueled disasters keep mounting, that creativity may be reaching its limits. Policymakers too are running up against limits on their longtime strategy of passing the buck for climate recovery and resilience to a sector that was never meant to provide them.About half of the residential mortgage market is backed by agencies regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you need to get a federally backed mortgage, then you need homeowners’ insurance. Those policies cover damages from wind and fires but not floods. Flood insurance is similarly mandatory for most mortgage borrowers in flood-prone areas, and subsidized by the National Flood Insurance Program, which reimburses losses up to $250,000 under the umbrella of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. That can leave serious gaps, particularly in high-cost and rapidly growing areas like Florida’s Western Coast. Enforcement on who takes out flood insurance is lax, and many areas where homeowners aren’t required to carry it have, in fact, been flooded. Those with coverage could still pay dearly to rebuild. Mortgage borrowers in Cape Coral and Fort Meyers, for instance, have an average of $316,499 in equity wrapped up in their homes.Insurers themselves take out insurance to protect against massive losses. Typically those policies, known as reinsurance, are issued by companies based in Europe or on Wall Street like Munich Re or Swiss Re. But escalating costs amid an uptick of disasters has made insuring the insurers an increasingly expensive prospect.In reaction to a string of destructive storms in 2004 and 2005, including Hurricane Katrina, reinsurers began to experiment with something known as insurance-linked securities, or ILS, including catastrophe bonds (“cat bonds”). Not unlike mortgage-backed securities, cat bonds bundle together reinsurance and insurance companies’ exposure to different forms of risk—like California fires and Florida hurricanes—into a financial product with its own risk portfolio. That risk is determined by complex, proprietary modeling that has grown up around the novel asset class. Zac Taylor, a professor at Delft University of Technology who studies climate risk and the insurance sector, writes that such modeling has “helped to transform amorphous climate uncertainties into exchangeable risk objects, into ‘just another asset class.’” If a single catastrophe rises above a certain predetermined damage threshold, then raised funds go back to the sponsor of the bond to pay out claims. If it doesn’t, then investors continue to collect interest. Essentially, cat bonds ask investors to place a well-informed bet on the weather. After the financial crisis, ILS products took off as institutional investors like hedge funds and pension funds went searching for reliable sources of yield that weren’t so directly tied to the rest of the economy. But financial markets will only shoulder so much risk. While the full effect of Ian on the ILS market remains to be seen, Stonybrook Capital’s report paints a bleak picture: “Many diversified Cat funds are now deep in the red for the year (if not earlier), and all will have ‘trapped capital’ again. Some will now report experience that is far below their investor representations in 5 of the last 7 years.” The ripple effects of that could be profound, leading to a dramatic rise in prices for policyholders. Making matters worse is the fact that the Federal Reserve is also hiking interest rates, potentially rendering cat bonds less attractive to institutional investors who can find better returns elsewhere.
Mortgage Credit Availability Decreased in September --Mortgage credit availability decreased in September according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) that analyzes data from ICE Mortgage Technology. The MCAI fell by 5.4 percent to 102.5 in September. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI decreased 4.9 percent, while the Government MCAI decreased by 5.7 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI decreased by 5.8 percent, and the Conforming MCAI fell by 3.6 percent."Credit availability fell to the lowest level since March 2013 – the seventh consecutive month of tightening,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With the likelihood of a weakening economy, which would lead to an increase in delinquencies, there was a smaller appetite for lower credit score and high LTV loan programs, along with a reduction in government streamline refinance programs. As mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year, resulting in a drop in refinance activity, lenders have worked to reduce excess capacity and costs by eliminating underutilized loan programs. All the component indices declined last month, with most of the indices falling to their lowest levels in over a year. In particular, the government credit availability index has declined in seven of the last eight months to its lowest level since April 2013.” The MCAI fell by 5.4 percent to 102.5 in September. The Conventional MCAI decreased 4.9 percent, while the Government MCAI decreased by 5.7 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI decreased by 5.8 percent, and the Conforming MCAI fell by 3.6 percent. The Conventional, Government, Conforming, and Jumbo MCAIs are constructed using the same methodology as the Total MCAI and are designed to show relative credit risk/availability for their respective index. The primary difference between the total MCAI and the Component Indices are the population of loan programs which they examine. The Government MCAI examines FHA/VA/USDA loan programs, while the Conventional MCAI examines non-government loan programs. The Jumbo and Conforming MCAIs are a subset of the conventional MCAI and do not include FHA, VA, or USDA loan offerings. The Jumbo MCAI examines conventional programs outside conforming loan limits, while the Conforming MCAI examines conventional loan programs that fall under conforming loan limits.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Rises" in September -From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises In September - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 5.7% (2000=100) in September to 183.2 from the revised August reading of 173.4. The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In September, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 2.9%, while the institutional component also increased, seeing a double-digit gain of 11.7%. After a solid performance in September, the DMI landed less than 5% below an all-time high. On the commercial side, the figure was primarily bolstered by an influx of data centers entering the planning queue. The institutional component saw a notable increase in research and development laboratory projects in the education sector, with solid contributions from healthcare and recreation projects entering the planning process. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 26% higher than September in 2021; the commercial component was up 25%, and institutional planning was 28% higher. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 183.2 in September, up from 173.4 in August.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction at the end of this year and into 2023.
Morgan Stanley Says Jaw-Dropping Inventory Levels A "Key Risk" To Retailers - A Monday report from Morgan Stanley’s equity team (available to pro subs here) said inventory is a “key risk” to retailers and electronic goods manufacturers. Thank skidding demand amid a glut of inventory, i.e. the reverse bullwhip effect we predicted back in May is coming true (see "Bullwhip Effect Ends With A Bang: Why Prices Are About To Fall Off A Cliff "). Morgan Stanley highlighted retailers like Best Buy, Gap and Williams-Sonoma as most exposed to these inventory risks. In the goods industry, Morgan Stanley said there’s a 19% discrepancy between inventory and sales growth. Companies with high consumer exposure have slashed their ordering — even though this time of year tends to be when retailers are beefing up their warehouses ahead of the holiday season. According to the Morgan Stanley Shipper Survey, in which some 100 corporations regularly share their transportation needs and macro expectations, net ordering levels have reached the lowest point in the survey’s 12-year history. Ordering levels are down 40% year over year. Net inventory levels are also unusually high. “Almost half of respondents say that their inventory is higher and ordering is lower going forward — which firmly indicated an over-inventoried/de-stocking condition,” wrote Ravi Shanker, who is Morgan Stanley’s lead transportation equity analyst. The 56-page report noted elsewhere: "Faced with a glut of inventory, companies will need to decide whether they want to accept high costs to continue holding inventory, destroy inventory, keep prices high and take a hit on the number of units sold, or slash prices to stimulate demand. We believe many will turn to aggressive discounting to solve their inventory problem which is likely to spark a ‘race to the bottom’ as companies attempt to cut prices faster than peers and move out as much inventory as possible. This dynamic will weigh heavily on margins and fuel the earnings slowdown we are predicting.” In other words, precisely what Zero Hedge said would happen. Analysts highlighted apparel as one sector reporting “alarming” growth in imports. As a result, they boosted Ross, Burlington and T.J. Maxx’s parent company as some of the few retailers who could soar in the present environment, because they can take advantage of other stores looking to shed inventory. Home furnishings and personal electronics are also at elevated risk. Some industries are still experiencing supply chain disruptions. Analysts identified machinery, electrical equipment and the automotive industry as facing low to moderate risk from the inventory chaos. The automotive industry’s slow recovery to pre-pandemic inventory levels is bad news for inflation. New and used vehicle prices make up some 80% of core goods inflation, according to the Morgan Stanley report. On the other hand, Cox Automotive reported that wholesale used-car values declined in September year over year for the first time since May 2020.
Retail sales were flat in September as inflation takes a bite (AP) — The pace of sales at U.S. retailers was unchanged in September from August as rising prices for rent and food chipped away at money available for other things.Retail sales were flat last month, down from a revised. 0.4% growth in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales fell 0.4% in July.Excluding sales of automobiles and at gas stations, retail sales rose 0.3%. Excluding gas sales, spending was up 0.1%While the report showed the resilience of the American consumer, the figures are not adjusted for inflation unlike many other government reports. In fact, sales at grocery stores rose 0.4%, helped by rising prices in food.Evidence that the Fed’s fight to cool the economy may be taking hold can also be seen, particularly with big-ticket items. Sales at auto dealers fell 0.4% last month, and shoppers continued to pull back on appliances, electronics and furniture, all categories that did well during the early part of the pandemic. Business at consumer electronics and appliance stores fell 0.8%. Sales at clothing stores rose 0.5%, while business at department stores rose 1.3% That indicates a solid back-to-school season but adjusted for inflation, spending was modest, analysts said. Business at restaurants rose 0.5%, while online sales ticked up at the same pace. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail said the report was “representative of an economy that is tightening and of a shopper that is becoming more discerning and cautious about what they buy.” Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity and Americans have remained mostly resilient even with inflation near four-decade highs. Yet surging prices for everything from mortgages to rent have upped the anxiety level. Overall spending has slowed and shifted increasingly toward necessities like food, while spending on electronics, furniture, new clothes and other non-necessities has faded.“Even if people are employed and on paper look reasonably comfortable they are not feeling comfortable, and they are very concerned about what’s to come next,” Inflation in the United States accelerated in September, with the cost of housing and other necessities putting more pressure on households, eliminating pay gains and almost guaranteeing that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates aggressively.
Retail Sales & Raging Inflation by Wolf Richter - First things first: Retail sales, reported today by the Commerce Department, are based on revenues, obtained via a survey of about 5,500 retail businesses, by retailer category. This is revenue data from retailers – from the company’s point of view, not from the consumer’s point of view. It’s an indication of how well revenues at these companies are doing. And in a moment, we’ll get into a gazillion of these revenue charts by retailer category.“Retail sales” are not “Consumer Spending”: The latter is reported about two weeks after retail sales, and my analysis of inflation-adjusted “real” consumer spending on durable goods, nondurable goods, and services is here. Through August, consumers have outspent inflation.“Retail sales” here track sales of goods, not services, but the raging inflation has shifted from goods to services – and in services, inflation is raging at the worst rate since 1982.Inflation raged in services and cooled in goods on a month-to-month basis in September. Food prices still jumped – and we’ll see that in the sales by grocery stores in a moment. But gasoline prices plunged, and so sales at gas stations fell. Used vehicle prices dropped, new vehicle prices rose but at a lower rate. Prices of electronics plunged. The CPI for durable goods – new and used vehicles, appliances, consumer electronics, sporting goods, furniture, etc. – dipped in September from August (all my inflation details are here). For many retailers, price increases are now harder to push through and make stick.So overall CPI rate cannot be applied to retail sales. Even if you try to apply the CPI of various goods categories to retail sales, you will run aground because retail sales go by category of retailer, not by product category, such as “general merchandise retailer,” which includes Walmart, which sells a vast array of product categories. A few retailer categories are close to product categories, such as “new and used auto and parts dealers,” or “food services and drinking places,” or “gasoline stations.” But gasoline stations sell all kinds of other products, including sodas and junk food, and the retail sales category of “gasoline stations” counts sales of all products, not just gasoline. After price drops in many categories of goods, total retail sales remained flat in September from August, at $684 billion, seasonally adjusted, and were up 8.2% from a year ago. Compared to September 2019, retail sales were up a mind-boggling 32%. Sales at New and Used Vehicle and Parts Dealers, the largest category, edged down by 0.4% in September from August, to $128 billion, seasonally adjusted, but was up by 5.6% from a year ago, and by 23% from September 2019.The sales increases since 2019 come from much higher prices of new and used vehicles, on much lower volume as the industry has had huge supply problems.Used vehicle prices have dropped from their crazy spike, and there is now plenty of supply on dealer lots as price resistance has finally set in. Thenumber of used vehicles sold is down about 15% from 2019.New vehicle prices continued to surge in September. Inventories of full-size trucks, which were depleted last year and earlier this year, are rising, andsome dealers are overstocked, and are slapping on big discounts. Smaller vehicles with good fuel economy have sold out, and there are long waiting lists, including for EVs. So new vehicle unit sales – down 19% in Q3 from Q3 2019 – are not yet constrained by demand but by supply.
BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in September; Core CPI increased 0.6% - From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August. The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in September, including those for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication. The all items index increased 8.2 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly smaller figure than the 8.3-percent increase for the period ending August. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 19.8 percent for the 12 months ending September, a smaller increase than the 23.8-percent increase for the period ending August. The food index increased 11.2 percent over the last year. Both CPI and core CPI were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
US Core CPI Surges To 40 Year Highs; Food & Shelter Costs Soar - While the market's volatility this week has been focused on UK pension funds and budgets and systemic risk, this morning's US CPI print will likely determine the next leg from here with expectations for an acceleration in core inflation and small slowdown in headline growth of consumer prices. Disappointingly, for the hopeful bulls, Headline and Core CPI printed hotter than expected. Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM (double expectations) and up 8.2% YoY (hottere than the +8.1% exp)... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Core CPI is up 28 straight months, soaring to +6.6% YoY - the highest since August 1982... Notably, the range of forecasts for core CPI was extremely narrow between +0.3% and +0.5% MoM. Under the hood food and shelter jumped notably (despite energy drops). A few indexes declined over the month, including the index for used cars and trucks, which fell 1.1 percent in September after decreasing 0.1 percent in August. The apparel index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the communication index decreased 0.1 percent in September. Food inflation remains extremely high...Graphics Source: Bloomberg. The owners’ equivalent rent index also increased 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase in that index since June 1990. Shelter inflation 6.59%, up from 6.24% last month and the highest on record. Rent inflation 7.21%, up from 6.74% last month, and the highest on record. CPI says "shelter index also rose 6.6% Y/Y, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase in all items ex food and energy." This is because rent data flow through into CPI is 6-9 months delayed from the market, meanwhile real-time rent data now negative MoM. As a reminder, the time to panic about soaring rent and its implications for CPI was a year ago...
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.7% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.6% in September - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 7.3%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.6%. Core PCE is for August and increased 4.9% year-over-year.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Motor Fuel" decreased at a 45% annualized rate in September.Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 3.7% annualized in the Midwest and almost 13% in the South with an average of close to 10% annualized. The year-over-year increase was larger in September than in August. This data is lagged, and actually rent growth has slowed in recent months.
Social Security Benefits Receive 8.7% Boost For 2023 - Less than an hour after US core CPI surged to 40-year highs, the Social Security Administration announced that benefits for around 70 million Americans will increase 8.7% in 2023. This will amount to an average increase of more than $140 per month beginning in January for Social Security beneficiaries, and beginning in December for more than 7 million Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries.Of note, the Social Security Act links the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to the increase in the Consumer Price Index."Medicare premiums are going down and Social Security benefits are going up in 2023, which will give seniors more peace of mind and breathing room. This year’s substantial Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is the first time in over a decade that Medicare premiums are not rising and shows that we can provide more support to older Americans who count on the benefits they have earned," said acting Commissioner Kilolo Kijakazi in a statement.Meanwhile the maximum amount of earning subject to the Social Security tax (taxable minimum) will increase from $147,000 to $160,00.
Here’s what you need to know about this week’s Social Security COLA hike – The Social Security Administration is expected to announce its largest cost-of-living adjustment(COLA) to Social Security in four decades on Thursday, a move that could leave people living on the program with more income to deal with inflation.It is expected that the hike will be 8.7 percent, a boost to the more than 70 million Americans benefitting from the program. Retirees, widowers, those who are disabled and others will all see the increase reflected in their 2023 benefits.On average, retirees now receive a monthly benefit of $1,656. The new COLA adjustment would increase that total by $144.10, according to the Senior Citizens League, a bipartisan advocacy group.Beneficiaries can estimate their own increases by multiplying their gross benefit amount by 0.087. Around 25 percent of Americans receive Social Security, and 1 in 5 U.S. household budgets will be affected by the COLA spike, meaning it could have a significant impact on the economy as a whole.And for people depending on Social Security every month, it will especially be important. One-quarter of American seniors rely on their monthly social security payment for all or the majority of their earnings. The boost comes as inflation squeezes Americans’ budgets, affecting costs of holiday travel andgroceries alike.
Credit Card Rates Just Hit A Record As The Average Car Loan Rises To Fresh All Time High (7 graphs) With the 30 Year mortgage now (un)comfortably into 7% territory, the US housing market is already suffering the "sharpest turn since the 2008 crash", according to Redfin... ... pushing the average mortgage payment almost 50% to $2,500 from around $1,700 at the start of the year. But we won't focus on mortgage in this post (we have done so excessively on various previous occasions), especially since in a world where most Americans have been forced to rent (with the average house increasingly unaffordable), having a mortgage became a luxury for the middle class long ago. Instead, we will bring readers' attention to what is no longer a luxury, but with the US savings rate at record lows... ... and with credit card debt soaring every month by record amounts... ... to record highs... ... it is that tiny piece of plastic that has become absolutely indispensable in funding the American way of life, and unfortunately as the latest US consumer credit report showed, the interest rate on all credit card accounts (that were assessed any interest as of Q2), just jumped to the highest since Fed record-keeping started in Q4 1994. Yes, between soaring prices, exploding rents (after all, with 7% mortgage which nobody can afford, what's left of America's middle class is being pushed into renting), the rate on credit cards - that last lifeline to keeping with exploding inflation - just hit the highest on record. We will leave it to readers to decide what this means for the US economy, but first we just wanted to point out something else. As we noted last week, used car prices are finally sliding, and not just sequentially... ... but also annually. That's a problem if the surge in car prices was the result of soaring auto loans. Which as the final chart in this post shows, was precisely the case as the average new car loan just surpassed $38,000 for the first time.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in September; Prices Down Slightly Year-over-year - From Manheim Consulting on Friday: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline Again in SeptemberWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 3.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 204.5 and is now down 0.1% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in September was a decline of 2.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price down 2.3% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in September and were down 0.1% year-over-year (YoY). This also suggests the consumer price index for used cars and trucks will be down again in September.It is likely this index will be down more than 10% YoY in October.
The WOLF STREET Real-World New-Vehicle Price Index, F-150 XLT & Camry LE, 2023 Models: Ford’s Truck Price Shocker by Wolf Richter - It’s the time of the year again when I get to update the extra-special proprietary non-adjusted WOLF STREET Real-World New-Vehicle Price Index, or more precisely the F-150 XLT and Camry LE Price Index, with the MSRPs of the 2023 model year. The F-150 XLT is just above the XL model (low end of the F-series). High-end models of the F-series can cost over twice as much as an XLT. The Camry LE turned into the low end of the Camry line when the Camry L was discontinued. The F-150 XLT and the Camry LE both go back to 1990 and beyond, and both are bestsellers, which is why I use them for my index.I use the base version of these models, with no add-ons and without destination and delivery charges, to show the price increases of the bestselling truck and the best-selling car in the US going back to 1990. And for an extra-special hoot, I compare that to the CPI for new vehicles.The chart below shows the MSRP for each model year of the F-150 XLT (red, left scale), and the Camry LE (purple, left scale), and the Consumer Price Index for New Vehicles (green, right scale). We’ll get to the details and numbers in a moment: Since 1990:
- MSRP of F-150 XLT: +231%
- MSRP of Camry LE: +77%
- CPI for new vehicles: +43%, including the 18% increase over the past 24 months.
The price increase of the 2023 F-150 XLT blew my ears off, compared to the 2022 model and the 2021 model, about +10% each year, two years back-to-back, total blowout price spikes. Over those two model years, from the 2021 model to the 2023 model, the base MSRP without destination and delivery charges jumped by $7,540, or by 21%, from $35,400 for a 2021 model to $42,940 for the 2023 model. Time to go on a buyers’ strike, no?This is what the inflationary mindset is all about: Manufacturers think that people will pay whatever because people paid whatever plus big-fat addendum stickers last year, so here we go.Ford has been whining all year about its cost increases, and used this whining as reason to jack up its retail pricing – the inflationary mindset at the manufacturer. A lot of media attention was focused on the multiple price jack-ups of the electric F-150 Lightning. But not much ink was spilled on the blowout price jack-ups for the second year in a row for the regular F-150 XLT – the truck that the average American is supposed to be able to buy.By contrast, Toyota raised the 2023 Camry LE price by a benign 2.6%to $25,945 without destination and delivery charges, after having raised it only 1% in the prior year.Trucks are just so profitable for dealers and automakers. The thing is – automakers figured this out long ago – Americans don’t mind paying out of their nose for big equipment while letting automakers and dealers pocket huge profit margins.But when it comes to a car, suddenly, they’re very price conscious and they don’t want anyone to make any profits. This has been the case for 20 years. And that’s why the MSRP of the Camry, which until the year 2000 had been above that of the F-150 XLT, is now 40% below it!
US Imports Sink In September, Suffer Steepest Drop Since 2020 Lockdowns - First came the pullback in spot shipping rates from their historic peak. Then came reports of plunging Asian bookings and mass retail order cancellations, with spot rates falling even faster. Now, all of this is finally showing up at America’s ports. According to Descartes, which aggregates U.S. Customs data, inbound volumes to all U.S. ports totaled 2,215,731 twenty-foot equivalent units in September. That’s down 11% year on year and 12.4% from August. Last month’s imports came in below September 2020 levels, albeit still up 9% from September 2019, pre-COVID. Imports this September were down 15.5% versus May, the month inbound volumes hit an all-time high, according to Descartes data. September’s 313,311-TEU decline versus August was the steepest month-to-month drop recorded by Descartes since the 364,454-TEU plunge in February 2020 versus the month before, back when Chinese authorities first locked down Wuhan. “We’ve had a pretty significant correction here,” said Chris Jones, executive vice president of industry and services at Descartes Systems Group, in an interview with American Shipper on Monday. This is normally the time of year when imports seasonally decline — but not by this much. “There was an inflection, and it was a big one,” he said. “In some respects, this is not inconsistent with other years [pre-COVID]. It’s just more severe.” If the usual seasonal pattern holds true from here, Jones added, imports “should slow down for the rest of the year.”
Northwest Ohio Pilot Project Celebrates $2.9 Million Investment to Expand Manufacturing Talent Pipeline - JobsOhio, along with the Regional Growth Partnership (RGP) and the Ohio Manufacturers' Association (OMA) announced a pilot project to increase the number of workers with in-demand skills to power northwest Ohio manufacturers. "In Ohio, we are committed to creating job opportunities while also ensuring workers have access to in-demand skills training so they can be hired quickly," said Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. "Through this collaborative effort, career technical and community colleges, along with businesses will work hand-in-hand to fill high-paying positions while improving Northwest Ohio's manufacturing competitiveness." Manufacturing is the largest sector in Ohio's economy, providing nearly 700,000 jobs with an average pay of $63,000. The pilot program includes a sophisticated marketing campaign across a 17-county area supported by a full-time recruitment partner who will guide candidates into local manufacturing jobs or training programs. "This first-of-its-kind pilot project enables us to generate a direct pipeline between advanced manufacturing talent and the companies that need a skilled workforce," said Lt. Governor Jon Husted, who leads the Governor's Office of Workforce Transformation. "Improving access to the best and the brightest in Northwest Ohio sends a strong signal to companies in Ohio and globally that our state is the ideal location to build and create success." Unique to the pilot will be a full-time recruitment partner who will assist job seekers on behalf of employers and training institutions, matching them with local job opportunities in manufacturing, training opportunities at six regional education providers, and/or additional support services found through Ohio's workforce development system. "Because the recruitment partner is a third party and doesn't work for a specific training provider or employer, they can facilitate the connections that are best for the job seeker and the northwest Ohio manufacturing industry as a whole," said Ryan Augsburger, president of the OMA. This new financial commitment is combined with a previous JobsOhio investment of $1.5 million to pay for equipment and software for the Penta Career Center, Apollo Career Center, Vantage Career Center, Vanguard-Sentinel Career & Tech Center, Northwest State Community College, and Owens Community College.
Payrolls Turn Negative Next Quarter And Stay There For All 2023: BofA - After Friday's payrolls report once again surprised to the upside, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly slumped near all time lows as the number of unemployed workers dropped sharply in September, sparking a swoon in the S&P on 6 of the past 7 payroll Fridays, Bank of America's economists summarized the payrolls data noting that there was "little in our BofA Indicator of US Labor Market Conditions and BofA Indicator of US Labor Market Momentum that suggests current and expected Fed tightening have significantly dented the strength of labor markets." They go on to note that while conditions have moderated somewhat, they remain near all-time highs, and "those that were expecting the Fed to pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes in November may very well be disappointed on the heels of today's report."But it's not all good news: momentum - which is the marginal rate of change in labor market conditions - has softened somewhat over the past year, likely reflecting some of the unusual nature of labor market performance during the pandemic. In other words, the BofA framework would normally interpret slower payroll employment and stronger wage growth as late-cycle developments, whereas in the current context they could simply characterize a labor market emerging from the pandemic. The bank's economists conclude that "notwithstanding this signal extraction problem, we are inclined to take the framework at face value; though recent employment reports would be viewed as robust by any historical standard, they are still less robust than some employment reports received in 2020 and 2021."A far more ominous take on the NFP report was provided courtesy of BofA credit strategist Yuri Seliger who wrote that while the September Payrolls report was strong, "we should start seeing a slowdown in jobs soon." And unlike other banks who still pretend the US can magically avoid a recession with 7% mortgages, record credit card rates and near record low savings rates, the BofA strategist (whose employer recently forecast a recession as a base case) actually put his money where his mouth is and wrote that the bank's economists are calling for Payrolls to drop to about half the pace in 4Q vs 3Q and then go negative in 1Q-2023, where they will stay until the end of the year. This is because financial conditions are tightening fast. Here, BofA economists estimate conditions are already much tighter than at the peak of the prior cycle in 2018. Meanwhile, as we discussed earlier, the interest-rate sensitive part of the economy - housing... ... and autos... ... are both showing clear signs of slowing. On the IG credit side the industrial corporate index notional is already shrinking ex. rising stars for the first time since 2005 In conclusion, Seliger looks ahead and muses that how much growth slows in 2023 will "ultimately determine the impact on credit fundamentals. A stronger than expected US economy now, and the resulting more rapid Fed tightening cycle, create more downside risk to growth in 2023."
United Steelworkers seeks to isolate workers at US Steel as it pushes concessions contracts at Cleveland-Cliffs - The United Steelworkers union (USW) announced last month that 2,000 Cleveland-Cliffs workers at its iron ore mining and pelletizing facilities had ratified a new four-year agreement at northern Minnesota and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. The union claimed the deal passed “overwhelmingly,” without releasing any results. Another 12,000 Cleveland-Cliffs workers at the company’s steel production facilities, also members of the USW, are currently awaiting the results of a mail-in vote on a tentative agreement announced August 27. The USW posted on its webpage that votes on this contract would be tallied tomorrow, October 12. USW District 11 Director Emil Ramirez, who chaired the negotiations for the mining contracts, said, “Our work will be more prosperous and our jobs more secure with the new contract in place.” The deal, he claimed, “ensures that the standard of living for USW members, our families and communities will continue to improve.” The USW made the same claims about the iron ore deal, claiming it “features significant wage and benefit improvements” and a company “commitment to invest in the future of the USW represented facilities.” The four-year deal covering iron ore miners and steel mill workers includes a 20 percent pay hike, which amounts to an average annual increase of 5 percent, well below the current rate of inflation of 8.26 percent. Vacation time remains inadequate for workers who regularly work 70 hours per week in dangerous conditions, barely seeing their families for days at times. Workers with one to five years of seniority are granted only two weeks’ vacation per year, and it will take a worker 30 years of continuous work under stressful conditions to earn six weeks. No signing bonuses were doled out to workers. Although such bribes are routinely used to pressure workers to sign deals they know are against their interests, USW and Cliffs officials insultingly cited the “wages that are with you forever and count toward future earnings” as a reason for not including a bonus. The agreements will continue the decades-long erosion of steelworkers’ living standards and working conditions. There are also no measures to guarantee safer working conditions in America’s highly dangerous mines. The USW and other unions are colluding with the Biden administration to impose the full burden of the inflationary crisis on the backs of workers. In February, after secret meetings with the White House, USW President Tom Conway blocked a strike by 30,000 oil refinery and petrochemical workers and signed a government-dictated deal, which Conway boasted “did not add to inflationary pressures.” Indeed, the deal included 2-3 percent pay increases and nothing to protect workers against the cost-cutting measures of the massively profitable energy companies, as witnessed by the September 20 fire at the BP Husky oil refinery where two USW workers, Max and Ben Morrissey, were burned to death. Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest US-based raw steelmaker after the acquisition of the majority of ArcelorMittal’s US operations in September 2020. Prior to the acquisition, Cleveland-Cliffs primarily operated in mining minerals used in the raw steelmaking process. The USW was present in many Cleveland-Cliffs mines in North America and worked with the corporation to push through sellout contracts as it has for years in the steel, aluminum, auto and other industries.
Banned Books -- October 9, 2022 -- The Million Dollar Way - by Bruce Oksol - - I believe Sophia is the top third grader reader in her school. She is reading at "sixth grade level." Yesterday, she and her mom were shopping at Barnes and Noble and stumbled upon the "banned book table." Wings of Fire is a series of books, but each stands alone. The series is clearly Sophia's favorite. She checks them out from the library, buys hard cover and soft cover editions, and even had me buy two soft cover books at the "book day fund raiser" at her school last year. She was appalled when she found out it was a "banned book." Several months ago, I had her read the first couple of chapters to me -- before I knew anything about the book. And, wow, I understand why it was "banned." But, I was hearing it from an adult's perspective; she was reading it from an 8-year-old's perspective. If this series is banned, then likewise Duolingo needs to be banned. Note that Gone With The Wind is also banned.Meanwhile, Texas has gone "nuts" with regard to banning books. Brown Bear Brown Bear is a picture book for three-year-olds and younger. And this is why I won't vote "Republican" in Texas. Actually, just one of several reasons.
Biology Teacher Reinstated After Refusing To Use Trans Student Pronouns - A biology teacher who was suspended last week after refusing to use transgender students' preferred pronouns was reinstated after over 400 people showed up at the school's auditorium last Wednesday - most of whom were there to support the educator. Biology and anatomy teacher Daren Cusato was suspended by officials at South Side Area School District in rural Beaver County, PA, despite citing religious beliefs for his refusal use the trans students' pronouns. "My uncle Daren is standing up for what is right, even though he is standing by himself. I am thoroughly embarrassed that South Side School District has taken this arbitrary stance in choosing to align with the one percent," said Cusato's niece - one of 40 people who spoke at the meeting, most in support of his reinstatement. "I am standing up here tonight to ask you to separate these two things: the very divisive but trendy topic of pronouns and the precedent that you are setting, which is that teachers need to modify their engagement of students based on how that student feels," said another. One speaker slammed the district for acting out of fear of "getting sued," according to WPXI. "We shouldn’t be afraid of being sued. Fine. If you want to sue us, sue us. Let’s take it to the Supreme Court. Let’s take it all the way," she said. Others argued in favor of the school - with one woman insisting that "Transgender students have a right to be identified by their chosen name, their pronouns. School staff must use that name." "If we allow a teacher, particularly one with a highly-regarded reputation, to model that these children don’t deserve acknowledgement of who they are, then the children we are trying to protect are in even greater danger," said another trans-defender.
5th grade teacher arrested after admitting to active 'kill list' of students and staff - A fifth grade teacher has been arrested after telling one of her students that she had made a "kill list" with students she taught and her colleagues. At approximately 5 p.m. on Wednesday, officers from the East Chicago Police Department were dispatched to speak with the principal and assistant principal of St. Stanislaus School -- located about 20 miles south of downtown Chicago -- in reference to a threatening report that school officials had learned about earlier in the day regarding fifth grade teacher Angelica Carrasquillo-Torres, a 25-year-old educator from Griffith, Indiana. "At approximately 12:45 p.m. a 5th grade student told his/her Counselor that their 5th grade teacher made comments to him/her about killing herself, students, and staff at St. Stanislaus School," East Chicago Police Department said in a statement released on social media. "The teacher further told the student that she has a list and that he/she was on the bottom of that list." WLS School officials said the teacher was immediately escorted to the principal's office to discuss the disturbing incident and subsequently admitted to them that she did make those statements to the student and also confirmed that she had a "kill list." "During the conversation the teacher named a specific student on her list, but did not provide the list," authorities confirmed. "The Principal then advised the teacher to leave and not return to school pending an investigation."
Latino enrollment in four-year schools reaches all time high - Hispanic student enrollment at four-year colleges and universities has reached an all-time high. A new Pew Research Center analysis of the most recent U.S. population survey data found between 2000 and 2020 the number of Latinos enrolled in a four-year institution increased by 287 percent jumping from 620,000 to 2.4 million. Meanwhile, overall student enrollment at four-year institutions in the U.S. has gone up by 50 percent during this same time period. The spike in part reflects Latinos’ rapid growth as a share of the U.S. population over the past 20 years, Pew researchers note in the analysis. In general, Latinos make up a growing number of students enrolled at all types of postsecondary schools. In 1980, there were roughly 470,000 Latino students enrolled at a degree-granting college, university or trade school accounting only for 4 percent of all students. But by 2000, 1.5 million Latinos were enrolled in a postsecondary institution and accounted for 10 percent of all students and by 2020 that number reached 3.7 million, or roughly 20 percent of all U.S. students, according to the analysis. Hispanic enrollment in four-year schools continued during the beginning of the pandemic while Latino enrollment, and overall enrollment, in two-year schools declined. Between 2019 and 2020 the number of Latino students enrolled in a four-year college or university spiked by 140,000 students, or 6 percent, the analysis found. The COVID-19 pandemic eventually hurt enrollment rates for Latinos and most other racial and ethnic groups. In the fall of 2020, there were 640,000 fewer students, including about 100,000 fewer Latino students, enrolled at a college or university than the year before, according to the National Center for Education Statics. A 2021 Pew Research Center survey found that finances were the primary reason U.S students, particularly Hispanic students, do not complete a four-year degree.
Many California Teachers Say They Are Barely Hanging On - A huge California teacher survey has just been released, but Salina Gray didn’t need to see the results. She’s living them. Gray, who teaches science to seventh and eighth graders in Moreno Valley near Riverside, hears colleagues eagerly counting down the days to their retirement. The Stanford PhD has seen her peers stretched sometimes to emotional breaking points, stressed from their workloads and trying to adapt to a rapidly changing teaching environment. “Just today someone said to me, ‘These kids are not the same. They’re not as capable. They spend way too much time on social media,’” Gray said. “But really, everyone is just stretched very thin, and it leads to this kind of malaise that some teachers have.” That sentiment is reflected in the responses of more than 4,600 members of the California Teachers Association (CTA), all currently employed in classrooms from transitional kindergarten through 12th grade, who were surveyed this summer by Hart Research Associates on behalf of the CTA and UCLA’s Center for the Transformation of Schools. Statewide data released in June suggests that nearly one in five classes is being taught by someone who isn’t credentialed for that subject. While some of the responses were poignant, others sounded red alerts. Asked how they felt about their work, 68% of those surveyed said that “exhausting” fit the description very well, followed by “stressful” (61%), “overwhelming” (51%) and “frustrating” (49%). Only 34% chose the word “rewarding,” while 29% chose “fulfilling.” That may sound abstract, and it represents a snapshot in time. But the survey’s full report brings those responses into a more practical light. Amid California’s soaring housing costs, teachers say they are increasingly struggling to afford to live near where they work. The burnout rate is high. Political attacks on teachers were cited as a significant detriment to their overall views of the profession, and many of those surveyed said their districts do a poor job of disciplining disruptive students. And behind the numbers lies the larger context: California is facing a looming teacher shortage that could cripple the state’s ability to educate its residents. By the count of the California School Boards Association, the state needs 100,000 new teachers to right the ship, and statewide data released in June suggests that nearly one in five classes is being taught by someone who isn’t credentialed for that subject. Given the teacher shortage already forecast, a few of the survey’s data points are chilling. Four in 10 teachers said they have considered leaving their jobs, while 20% said they either probably or definitely will depart the profession within the next three years.
University of California grad students demand higher pay and better conditions - University graduate workers on the US East and West Coasts, who are members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, are in the midst of contract struggles over the same issues, including the fight against poverty-level wages and the rising cost of tuition, housing, health and child care and other living expenses. Graduate student workers are the superexploited workhorses of the nation’s public and private universities, and the issues they face are universal. As of September 30, 48,000 graduate students across the 10 campuses of the University of California (UC) system—including graduate student workers, academic researchers, tutors, postdoctoral scholars (postdocs) and other academic employees—are working either without a contract or under a contract that has been extended. In New York City, adjunct professors at New York University (NYU) are currently participating in an ongoing strike authorization vote, after the UAW extended the previous contract by two months, with the new expiration set for October 30. The UAW is holding mass meetings on the UC campuses, ostensibly “to escalate the campaign for a fair contract.” In reality, these are chiefly being used as a means to let off steam. If the union officials were really seeking to escalate the campaign for a fair contract, it would obey the age-old maxim of “No Contract, No Work!” New York and California are the second and third most expensive states in the US, trailing behind only Hawaii. With grad students facing escalating prices of basic necessities every day, the UAW bureaucrats, led by incumbent International president Ray Curry, with a salary of $272,000, have done their best to block a strike. With the mid-term elections approaching, Curry & Co. are particularly concerned that a strike by tens of thousands of grad students would quickly lead to a confrontation with their allies in the Democratic Party who are committed to a program of austerity and war.
White House unveils application form for Biden’s student debt relief - The White House on Tuesday unveiled new details for how tens of millions of Americans will be able to apply for student loan forgiveness and outlined how it plans to prevent fraud in the relief program.Senior administration officials released a preview of the application that most borrowers will be required to fill out in order to receive debt relief that President Joe Biden announced in August. The application contains only a handful of questions that seek basic information about borrowers: name, social security number, date of birth, phone number and email address.Borrowers will be required to check a box that “certifies under penalty of perjury” that they meet the income threshold for the debt relief program. The relief is available to borrowers whose adjusted gross income in 2020 or 2021 was less than $125,000 for individuals or $250,000 for couples filing taxes jointly.Income verification has long been a central challenge for the Education Department as it prepares to implement a means-tested student debt relief program. While the agency has detailed information about Americans’ federal student loans, it lacks income information for most borrowers.A senior administration official told reporters that the self-certification process that the administration is planning will contain “strict fraud prevention measures” that are “risk-based.”As part of that effort, the Education Department plans to require as many as several million borrowers who it believes are higher-income and likely to exceed the income cutoff to undergo extra scrutiny before receiving any relief.Those borrowers will have to log into StudentAid.gov with their Federal Student Aid ID and upload a copy of their tax returns or proof they didn’t have to file taxes, according to officials and documents released by the administration. Borrowers will have until March 31, 2024 to submit those materials.Education Department officials estimated that between 1 million and 5 million borrowers will have to upload their income information as part of that verification process, according to documents posted online by the Office of Management and Budget.The administration declined to detail how it would determine which borrowers would be selected for the additional layer of verification. The official said only that it would be based on “known characteristics” of borrowers.“We’re confident that these measures — combined with clear communication about eligibility requirements to public — will result in a simple straightforward process that allows eligible borrowers to obtain relief and ensures ineligible borrowers do not,” the official told reporters.
Mental health courts signed into law by California Governor Gavin Newsom - Last August, the California legislature overwhelmingly voted in favor of Senate Bill 1338, better known as the CARE act. The bill, which was signed into law by California Governor Gavin Newsom on September 14, is portrayed as a 'paradigm shift'—the paradigm being the 'revolving door' of jail to hospital to streets. It purports to address the mental health and homelessness problem by creating a civil court process to provide support to people experiencing severe mental illness. In reality, however, the new law simply gives businesses and law enforcement new tools to drive away “undesirables” who have not committed any crime.Proponents claim that the law creates a non-criminal court system where people suffering with psychotic disorders can be referred by police, first responders, family members or even roommates. After an assessment, the court can dictate a treatment plan lasting up to 24 months that the respondent must follow. But the CARE act is, in reality, a right-wing policy masquerading as a progressive measure. If a target of the CARE court fails to complete their “care plan” then they can be referred for involuntary hospitalization or conservatorship, “with a new presumption that no suitable alternatives are available.”The law ostensibly tackles the widespread issues of mental health illness, drug addiction and homelessness without addressing the underlying social issues. The law was endorsed by the California Chamber of Commerce along with 21 local chambers of commerce but overwhelmingly condemned by human rights groups. Instead of providing new funding for behavioral health services, it appropriates $49 million yearly for the administration of these courts, which then direct their targets to the already existing and overburdened social services.The claim that the Californian government 'continues to act with urgency to expand behavioral health services' is belied by the indifference of the Newsom government to the struggle of more than 2,000 mental health workers in Northern California who have been on strike for almost two months. One of the workers’ main demands is for their employer, Kaiser Permanente, one of the largest mental health care providers in the state, to improve staffing and work conditions so that patients can get adequate access to mental health care services.In spite of a recent law requiring mental health care providers to ensure patients in need can get access to care within two weeks, the health care giant, which posted record revenues of $8.1 billion last year, continues to flout this basic demand, with patients reportedly waiting upwards of two months before being able to secure follow-up appointments.The CARE Act has been sharply criticized by human rights groups. In their opposition letter signed on April of this year, Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned the bill as “aimed at facilitating removing unhoused people from public view without actually providing housing and services that will help to resolve homelessness.” The letter goes on to say that the CARE court creates a “state-imposed system of coerced, involuntary treatment” that “specifically targets unhoused people.”
Ultra-processed foods: Could what a mother eats affect a child's obesity risk? Childhood obesity is a major health issue and is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes later in life. The prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity was nearly 20% in the United States between 2017–2020, accounting for about 14.7 million children and adolescents.A new study published in BMJ shows that higher levels of maternal intake of ultra-processed foods during childhood and adolescence was associated with an increased risk of overweight or obesity in their offspring between 7–18 years of age, independent of the offspring’s consumption of ultra-processed foods. “Our research highlights the importance of the diet of the mother on not only her health but also the health of her children. Until now, we tended to focus on dietary counseling for middle-aged and older adults to reduce the risk of chronic disease. This clearly shows that we need to encourage healthy eating across the life course.”— Dr. Andrew Chan, study author and professor of medicine at the Harvard Medical School. “From a public health standpoint, we also need to emphasize access to healthy foods for family units to reduce the epidemic of childhood and adult obesity,” Dr. Chan told Medical News Today.“We also need to understand that one of the manifestations of social disparities in health is not only differential access to health care but also differential access to healthy, minimally processed foods. This requires deliberate and thoughtful policy-making that addresses not only a basic human right to food but also a right to healthy food,” he added. Ultra-processed foods are foods that have undergone significant industrial processing and modification and thus contain only a small amount of whole foods. Thus, ultra-processed foods tend to contain food additives such as preservatives, emulsifiers, stabilizers, and sweeteners that are typically not used in domestic cooking. These foods are generally ready to consume or require little preparation and have a long shelf-life.Due to the industrial manufacturing processes used for making these types of foods, ultra-processed foods are generally highly palatable, inexpensive, and high in calories, sugar, salt, and saturated fat. Some examples of ultra-processed foods include mass-produced bread and bakery items, ready-to-eat meals, packaged sweets, desserts, and snacks.
Pregnancy complications spiked during the pandemic. No one knows exactly why. - Lauren Phillips didn’t know it then, but she had preeclampsia, a little understood complication of pregnancy that each year results in more than 70,000 maternal and 500,000 fetal deaths worldwide. Rates of the illness had been rising steadily in the United States for years, but during the pandemic, the number of cases jumped, according to doctors. No one knows exactly why.The mystery of preeclampsia cases like that of Phillips is part of the growing pool of information scientists are sorting through when it comes to the impact of the coronavirus on reproductive health, from a woman’s menstrual cycle and fertility down to possible effects on a baby’s development. Ilhem Messaoudi, a professor of immunology at the University of Kentucky, said she and many of her colleagues have been taken aback by the extent to which pregnancy has been affected by the pandemic. Like many researchers, she had initially thought of covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as a respiratory illness and did not expect it to impact reproductive organs. Instead, she and other pregnancy experts have spent the past few years scrambling to understand spikes in maternal complications — first reported anecdotally then verified in several large studies — including an extremely small but nonetheless alarming group of unusual stillbirths. “I was naive,” Messaoudi reflected. “Now I wonder, ‘What else have we been missing?’” It will be decades before we know the extent of the coronavirus’s effects on human health. Among the key findings so far about SARS-CoV-2 — by many accounts the most studied virus ever to infect humans — are that fertility appearsappears unaffected by either infections or vaccines. Periods may shift in women after the vaccine but only slightly so and the change appears to be only temporary. But there is more reason for concern with pregnancy itself. While the vast majority of people who are infected do not experience complications, the risk of preeclampsia and other severe issues has been documented to be much higher with infection. […] Amy Heerema McKenney, a Cleveland Clinic pathologist whose job involves figuring out why some babies die, began receiving eerily similar reports of stillbirths. The cases seemed to appear out of nowhere and in rapid succession. Almost as soon as she began looking into them, Heerema McKenney recalled, she became “pretty panicked.” A normal placenta is spongy and dark, reflecting the nourishing blood flowing through it. The ones she was looking at in her lab from the mothers who lost their babies were like nothing she had ever seen before: firm, scarred and more of a shade of tan. “The degree of devastation was unique,” she said. Flipping through case files, she noted that most of the women were in their second trimester, unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated, and infected with the coronavirus within a two-week window before their pregnancies ending. Her findings matched up with cases colleagues were seeing in other parts of the world. And they also echoed those in a paper from Ireland that looked at seven cases — six stillbirths and one second-trimester fetal death in pregnant people infected with the coronavirus — resulting from what the authors called “a readily recognizable pattern of placental injury.” […] While the stillbirth cases stunned the medical community due to their clustering within a short period and their impact on the placenta, a surge in preeclampsia presents a much larger public health threat. Preeclampsia, a leading cause of maternal death across the globe, usually begins with small signs like high blood pressure, bubbly urine or vision changes but can progress rapidly to send a person’s entire body into crisis. It typically occurs midway through pregnancy, after about the 20th week, in roughly 2 to 6 percent of pregnant people in the United States.
An Official Smoking Gun on #CovidIsAirborne Denial by Hospitals Because They Didn’t Want to Spend Money Changing Their Physical Plant by Lambert Strether -- So far, in the United States, we have been limited to teasing out the motivations for official denial or resistance to the aerosol/airborne transmission paradigm in hospital infection control from vague hints in published documents; in fact, from footnotes in official documents. To the best of my knowledge — and I do try to keep track — we’ve never had an official come right out and say“We’re not dealing with airborne transmission in hospitals because that would cost too much money.” Well, now one has. Granted, the smoking gun is in Denmark. In this short and sweet post, I’ll contextualize and present a Twitter thread where the smoking gun official appears. To be fair, Eric Feigl-Ding amplified the thread, although I had flagged it previously in my meanderings through the aerosol community:
- @Jade Khalife: A clear report that technical authorities *knew* Covid was spread through the air (i.e. 'airborne'). But told the population that it was through Contact. Because it would've inconvenienced hospitals. It cost lives & is a scandal.
- @DrEricDing Basically, if they admit that #CovidisAirborne, then retrofitting hospitals and office buildings and schools just gets expensive and inconvenient on corporate / govt budgets.
However, I am not the sort of person to be satisfied with context-free images of tweets, especially where I don’t know the players. So herewith the context.
Experts slam Florida surgeon general’s warning on coronavirus vaccines - The guidance from the Florida health department came in a terse releaseat 6:12 on Friday evening, ahead of a three-day weekend: Joseph Ladapo, the state’s top health official, warned young adult men to stop taking coronavirus vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, citing an “abnormally high risk” of heart-related deaths.But Ladapo’s recommendation — extrapolated from a short state analysis that has not been peer-reviewed, carries no authors and warns that its findings are “preliminary” and “should be interpreted with caution” — was swiftly condemned by medical and public health leaders, who said the Florida surgeon general’s announcement was politics masquerading as science and could lead Americans to forgo lifesaving interventions.More than a dozen experts interviewed by The Washington Post — including specialists in vaccines, patient safety and study design — listed concerns with Florida’s analysis, saying it relies on information gleaned from frequently inaccurate death certificates rather than medical records, skews the results by trying to exclude anyone with covid-19 or a covid-related death, and draws conclusions from a total of 20 cardiac-related deaths in men 18-to-39 that occurred within four weeks of vaccination. Experts noted the deaths might have been caused by other factors, including underlying illnesses or undetected covid. “We’re talking about a very small number of deaths. An extra death or two would potentially change these results,” said Robert Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco and co-author of a patient-safety textbook used in many medical schools. “I’m hesitant to even call it a paper; it isn’t published anywhere. The idea that [the analysis] … is being used to change policy — it does not have the scientific chops to do that.”“If you submitted that to a peer-reviewed journal, unless you were paying them to publish it, it would get rejected,” added Daniel Salmon, who leads the Institute of Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He called Florida’s report “a dangerous thing to do.”Twitter briefly removed Ladapo’s post touting the study over the weekend, citing it as misinformation, before restoring it hours later; thetweet has since been shared more than 50,000 times, cheered by anti-vaccine advocates and amplified by conservative media highlighting Ladapo’s claim that his state will “not be silent on the truth.”
How much of right-wing opposition to vaccination was Fox News’s fault? - Katie Lane’s father, Patrick, died of covid-19 in the summer of 2021. Hundreds of thousands of Americans did, of course, but Lane believes that her father was among the estimated 234,000 people whose deaths could have been prevented had he been vaccinated against the coronavirus.Asked during an interview on CNN why she thought her father chose not to get a dose of the vaccine, Lane suggested that there were a number of factors, media consumption included.“He watched some Tucker Carlson videos on YouTube, and some of those videos involved some misinformation about vaccines,” Lane said, “and I believe that that played a role.”New research suggests that Patrick Lane was probably not the only consumer of the Fox News host’s rhetoric to turn away from being vaccinated. And, therefore, he was probably not the only one to die of covid-19 who might otherwise have lived.We’ve known for some time that there is a partisan divide in vaccine uptake. A lot of attention has been paid to the divide in vaccination rates by race — often because pointing at lower vaccination rates among Black Americans is used as a bit of whataboutism to rationalize low vaccination rates among Republicans. But research has consistently shown that White Republicans are far less likely than Black Americans to report having been vaccinated, and far, far less likely than White Democrats.Research published this month found a correlation between partisanship and rates of excess deaths during the pandemic. In places where vaccine uptake was lower — which correlates to support for President Donald Trump in the 2020 general election — Republicans died at a much higher rate than they did before the pandemic, a gap that primarily emerged in the months after the vaccine became widely available.But why? What made Republicans less likely to get vaccinated?In part, we can point to the interplay of partisanship itself. As president, Trump tried to play down the danger of the virus and, with an eye to reelection, cast efforts to contain the virus as power plays from an overbearing government. This certainly helped influence behaviors among Republicans on vaccination, masking and social distancing. Research published last week, though, identifies a likely role for another prominent voice on the political right: Fox News.“Our results show that Fox News is reducing COVID-19 vaccination uptake in the United States, with no evidence of the other major networks having any effect,” the study from researchers at ETH Zurich concluded. “[T]here is an association between areas with higher Fox News viewership and lower vaccinations,” noting that “media emphasis on minority viewpoints against scientific consensus is linked to vaccination hesitancy.”
A UV Lamp That’s Bad for COVID but Not for You - The empty room was sealed. The scientists started the clock. For nearly two hours, they pumped the roughly four-by-three-meter chamber full of aerosols carrying a nasty pathogen. It was a pared-down replica of the kind of situation that many of us have tried diligently to avoid for the past couple of years.Unable to use the COVID-19 virus in their experiment because of biosafety restrictions, the researchers opted, instead, for Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that can cause a range of sometimes deadly infections. Then, with the press of a button, the scientists activated lamps they had fixed to the ceiling, sending a death ray beaming down upon the cloud of germs—a light, invisible to the human eye, with a wavelength of 222 nanometers.Light with such a wavelength—called far-UVC, from the ultraviolet portion of the electromagnetic spectrum—is deadly for microbes, researchers are learning, but appears safe for human beings. And that offers tantalizing possibilities as the pandemic rolls on.The researchers took air samples from the room every five minutes. Then they counted how many living bacteria were present in samples retrieved before and after switch-on. These showed that the light had worked—with astonishing effectiveness. “We were pretty gobsmacked at the reduction in the pathogen,” says Ewan Eadie, a medical physicist at NHS Tayside in Dundee, Scotland.Eadie and colleagues tested various levels of exposure to far-UVC, all within the guidelines set by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists. The highest exposure saw pathogen levels plunge by about 98 percent in mere minutes.The team published their results in the journal Scientific Reports in March 2022. Since then, they have tested the technology on two other pathogens—Pseudomonas aeruginosa and a bacteria-infecting virus called Phi 6—with similar success. The researchers are confident that the lamps would also destroy SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19: Experiments in a different setting by other teams have shown that far-UVC does inactivate SARS-CoV-2, potentially through UV light damaging the genome of the virus.
The next U.S. COVID wave is coming. Why it will be 'much weirder than before.' - Unless you’re a real-life virologist — or unless you enjoy playing one on Twitter — it has become pretty much impossible to keep up with all of the latest coronavirus variants. First they were named after Greek letters, like Omicron. Easy enough. Then came a few short, Star Wars-esque alphanumerics, like BA.5. Fine. But in recent weeks, COVID trackers have suddenly been subjected to a dizzying barrage of BA.4.6s and BF.7s and BA.2.75.2s and BQ.1.1s. There’s even an ominous new sublineage called XBB. For most Americans — the bulk of whom appear to be “over” COVID anyway — that’s far too many numbers and letters to grasp. Easier to just tune it all out, they say. Call me when there’s another wave on the way. Well, now there might be. The last big variant of concern — the hypertransmissible Omicron offshoot known as BA.5 — peaked in July. Since then, reported U.S. cases have plummeted by 70%. While far too many Americans are still dying of COVID each day — nearly 400, on average — the rate has returned to pre-BA.5 lows. It’s a moment of relative calm. But under the surface, something new — and potentially dangerous for the most vulnerable among us — has been happening: Omicron has started to “splinter..” As a result, we may be entering the next phase of the pandemic. Thanks to layers of immunity from vaccination and prior infection — plus lifesaving treatments such as Paxlovid — we will almost certainly never regress to the horrific era of collapsing ICUs and thousands of deaths per day. Yet the orderly succession of individually dominant variants we’ve come to expect over the last two years — think Alpha, then Beta, then Delta, then Omicron — may also be a thing of the past. Instead, what scientists are seeing now is a bunch of worrisome Omicron descendants arising simultaneously but independently in different corners of the globe — all with the same set of advantageous mutations that help them dodge our existing immune defenses and drive new waves of infection. “Although stuff started off in different places — some BA.2, some BA.5 — everything’s going back in the same direction,” Peacock recently told Stat. “They’re getting the same mutations, which implies there’s a very strong selective pressure in the environment right now, which of course is people’s immunity.” Of all 300 post-BA.5 sublineages currently being monitored by the World Health Organization — a group that includes BA.4.6, BF.7 and BA.2.75, which have risen as a proportion of U.S. cases in recent weeks — experts are most concerned about two Omicron spinoffs that have barely even registered in America yet: BQ.1.1 and XBB. “XBB and BQ.1.1 are 2 of the most important variants [to] watch right now,” Eric Topol, founder of Scripps Translational Institute, tweeted last week. Why? Because they’re “escape” variants. While earlier sublineages that were jockeying for post-BA.5 supremacy in the U.S. had a few advantageous mutations, XBB, B.Q.1.1 and their ilk — including BN.1 and BA.2.75.2 — now boast at least six changes in just the right places on the virus’s spike protein (leading some researchers to refer to them as the “pentagon” or “hexagon” variants). As a consequence, they now rank as the "most antibody-evasive” strains ever tested,
BQ.1 COVID-19 variant becomes increasingly prevalent in US infections: CDC -A new subvariant of the omicron variant of the coronavirus is becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). CDC data shows that the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants each made up 5.7 percent of the total number of cases in the country in the past week. The BA.5 subvariant, which has dominated the cases in the U.S. for months, made up 67.9 percent, down from its peak in late August when it made up almost 90 percent of all cases in the country. The BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants have increasingly spread in recent weeks, only trailing the BA.5 and BA.4.6 subvariants in making up the most cases. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and President Biden’s chief medical adviser, told CBS News in an interview that people need to “keep our eye out” for emerging variants despite cases and hospitalizations being down. “When you get variants like that, you look at what their rate of increase is as a relative proportion of the variants, and this has a pretty troublesome doubling time,” he said. Fauci said he is worried that subsequent variants may be more effective at evading medications that scientists have developed to help patients manage the virus. “That’s the reason why people are concerned about BQ.1.1, for the double reason of its doubling time and the fact that it seems to elude important monoclonal antibodies,” he said.
Long covid plagues 1 in 20 people more than six months after infection - - A new long-covid study based on the experiences of nearly 100,000 participants provides powerful evidence that many people do not fully recover months after being infected with the coronavirus.The Scottish study found that between six and 18 months after infection, 1 in 20 people had not recovered and 42 percent reported partial recovery. There were some reassuring aspects to the results: People with asymptomatic infections are unlikely to suffer long-term effects, and vaccination appears to offer some protection from long covid.“It’s one more well-conducted, population-level study showing that we should be extremely concerned about the current numbers of acute infections,” said David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System in New York. “We are in trouble.” Jill Pell, a professor of public health at the University of Glasgow who led the research, emphasized that the study revealed the wide-ranging impact of long covid on people’s lives. “There are lots of different impacts going beyond health to quality of life, employment, schooling and the ability to look after yourself,” she said.For these three long haulers, debilitating symptoms and fatigue has kept them from returning to work — and in return, struggling to navigate their new normal. The paper, published Wednesday in Nature Communications, represents the first findings of an ongoing study into long covid — the Long-CISS (Covid in Scotland Study).The range of reported symptoms and inability to provide a prognosis for patients have perplexed long-covid researchers, even as the breadth of the challenge has become clearer. Between 7 million and 23 million Americans — including 1 million who can no longer work — are suffering from the long-term effects of infection with the virus, according togovernment estimates. Those numbers are expected to rise as covid becomes an endemic disease.Previous studies have been challenged by the nonspecific nature of long-covid symptoms, including breathlessness and fatigue, which are also common in the general population. The Covid in Scotland Study, which included a control group, was able to pinpoint which symptoms were linked to covid, Pell said.“Those who had covid were significantly more likely to get 24 of the 26 symptoms studied compared to the never-infected general population,” she said. For example, those who were infected were 3½ times more likely to be breathless. Putrino pointed out that between 16 and 31 percent of the control group also suffered those same symptoms — a figure that is similar to the false negative rate of a PCR test, suggesting some of the control group may have been infected. Pell agreed that it is possible that some people with negative tests could have been infected, serving to reinforce the study’s broader findings.
Nearly Half of Covid Patients Haven’t Fully Recovered Months Later, Study Finds - A study of tens of thousands of people in Scotland found that one in 20 people who had been sick with Covid reported not recovering at all, and another four in 10 said they had not fully recovered from their infections many months later. The authors of the study, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications, tried to home in on the long-term risks of Covid by comparing the frequency of symptoms in people with and without previous Covid diagnoses.People with previous symptomatic Covid infections reported certain persistent symptoms, such as breathlessness, palpitations and confusion or difficulty concentrating, at a rate roughly three times as high as uninfected people in surveys from six to 18 months later, the study found. Those patients also experienced elevated risks of more than 20 other symptoms relating to the heart, respiratory health, muscle aches, mental health and the sensory system.The findings strengthened calls from scientists for more expansive care options for long Covid patients in the United States and elsewhere, while also offering some good news.The study did not identify greater risks of long-term problems in people with asymptomatic coronavirus infections. It also found, in a much more limited subset of participants who had been given at least one dose of Covid vaccine before their infections, that vaccination appeared to help reduce if not eliminate the risk of some long Covid symptoms.People with severe initial Covid cases were at higher risk of long-term problems, the study found.“The beauty of this study is they have a control group, and they can isolate the proportion of symptomatology that is attributable to Covid infection,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of research at the V.A. “It also tracks with the broader idea that long Covid is truly a multisystem disorder,” Dr. Al-Aly said, one that resides “not only in the brain, not only in the heart — it’s all of the above.” Long Covid refers to a constellation of problems that can plague patients for months or longer after a infection. Over the last year, researchers have given more attention to understanding the daunting aftereffects as the number of Covid cases exploded and health systems learned to better manage the initial stages of an infection.U.S. government estimates have indicated that between 7.7 million and 23 million people in the United States could have long Covid.Globally, “the condition is devastating people’s lives and livelihoods,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, wrote in an article on Wednesday for The Guardian. He called on all countries to devote “immediate and sustained action equivalent to its scale.”
Relatively unheard of condition affecting millions of COVID-19 long-haulers - As health officials keep an eye on what could be an uptick in COVID-19 cases this fall and into the winter, there are a group of local volunteers that are raising much-needed attention and money for a mostly unheard of medical issue that is now also affecting those with long COVID-19.On Saturday, there will be the annual POTS Walk and 5K Run in Medford.Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or "POTS," is a medical condition caused by a malfunction in the automatic nervous system, and it affects people in many ways.Patients can deal with crushing fatigue, sleep disorders, migraines and "brain fog." Nearly seven out of 10 people with long COVID-19 are also dealing with POTS."I basically wake up and feel like my body is not meant to exist in the world as it is," Hanna Rutter Gully said."Prior to the pandemic, there were 1 to 3 million people that had it. Now with the pandemic, 67 percent of long COVID patients -- so that’s millions upon millions," said Jacqueline Rutter Gully, who is on the board of directors of Dysautonomia International and Hanna’s mother.There isn’t a cure for POTS, and there are no FDA-approved medications to treat it.
Major worldwide study clusters long COVID symptoms into 3 groups -- As experts attempt to unravel the tangle of symptoms and long-term effects of what is collectively known as “long COVID,” a new study seeks to provide some clarity.Working with data collected in a health study app by personalized nutrition company ZOE, researchers from King’s College London in the U.K. have begun to discern some order in the chaos.The study finds that long COVID can be grouped into three symptom-cluster types: neurological symptoms, respiratory symptoms, and systemic/inflammatory and abdominal symptoms.
- Neurological symptoms — the most commonly reported long COVID symptoms — include anosmia/dysosmia, brain fog, headache, delirium, depression, and fatigue. (Loss of taste from COVID is typically attributable to a loss of smell.)
- Respiratory symptoms involve possible damage to the lungs and include severe shortness of breath, palpitations, fatigue, and chest pain.
- Systemic/inflammatory and abdominal symptoms include musculoskeletal pain, anemia,myalgias, gastrointestinal disorders, malaise, and fatigue.
For the study, researchers analyzed data for 336,652 individuals collected by ZOE’s COVID Symptom Study. Of this group, 1,459 reported post-COVID symptoms defined as more than 12 weeks after acute COVID-19 infection.Dr. Jai Marathe of Boston University School of Medicine in Massachusetts, who was not involved in the study, told Medical News Today, “This study definitely improves our understanding of post-COVID syndrome and more importantly, who might be at risk of prolonged illness and debility.”“Physicians and patients,” Dr. Marathe pointed out, “are both looking for answers regarding who is at risk for developing long COVID, how long symptoms will last, what will help resolve the symptoms, etc. While this study does not answer all these questions, it provides a strong framework to build on.”The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, has been published on the pre-print server medRXiV.
Medium COVID Could Be the Most Dangerous COVID - I am still afraid of catching COVID. As a young, healthy, bivalently boosted physician, I no longer worry that I’ll end up strapped to a ventilator, but it does seem plausible that even a mild case of the disease could shorten my life, or leave me with chronic fatigue, breathing trouble, and brain fog. Roughlyone in 10 Americans appears to share my concern, including plenty of doctors. “We know many devastating symptoms can persist for months,” the physician Ezekiel Emanuel wrote this past May in The Washington Post. “Like everyone, I want this pandemic nightmare to be over. But I also desperately fear living a debilitated life of mental muddle or torpor.”Recently, I’ve begun to think that our worries might be better placed. As the pandemic drags on, data have emerged to clarify the dangers posed by COVID across the weeks, months, and years that follow an infection. Taken together, their implications are surprising. Some people’s lives are devastatedby long COVID; they’re trapped with perplexing symptoms that seem to persist indefinitely. For the majority of vaccinated people, however, the worst complications will not surface in the early phase of disease, when you’re first feeling feverish and stuffy, nor can the gravest risks be said to be “long term.” Rather, they emerge during the middle phase of post-infection, a stretch that lasts for about 12 weeks after you get sick. This period of time is so menacing, in fact, that it really ought to have its own, familiar name: medium COVID.Just how much of a threat is medium COVID? The answer has been obscured, to some extent, by sloppy definitions. A lot of studies blend different, dire outcomes into a single giant bucket called “long COVID.” Illnesses arising in as few as four weeks, along with those that show up many months later, have been considered one and the same. The CDC, for instance, suggested in a study out last spring that one in five adults who gets the virus will go on to suffer any of 26 medical complications, starting at least one month after infection, and extending up to one year. All of these are called “post-COVID conditions, or long COVID.” A series of influential analyses looking at U.S. veterans described an onslaught of new heart,kidney, and brain diseases (even among the vaccinated) across a similarly broad time span. The studies’ authors refer to these, grouped together, as “long COVID and its myriad complications.” But the risks described above might well be most significant in just the first few weeks post-infection, and fade away as time goes on. When scientists analyzed Sweden’s national health registry, for example, they found that the chance of developing pulmonary embolism—an often deadly clot in the lungs—was a startling 32 times higher in the first month after testing positive for the virus; after that, it quickly diminished. The clots were only two times more common at 60 days after infection, and the effect was indistinguishable from baseline after three to four months. A post-infection risk of heart attack and stroke was also evident, and declined just as expeditiously. In July, U.K. epidemiologists corroborated the Swedish findings, showing that a heightened rate of cardiovascular disease among COVID patients could be detected up to 12 weeks after they got sick. Then the hazard went away. This is all to be expected, given that other respiratory infections are known to cause a temporary spike in patients’ risk of cardiovascular events. Post-viral blood clots, heart attacks, and strokes tend to blow through like a summer storm. A very recent paper in the journal Circulation, also based on U.K. data, did find that COVID’s effects are longer-lasting, with a heightened chance of such events that lasts for almost one full year. But even in that study, the authors see the risk fall off most dramatically across the first two weeks. I’ve now read dozens of similar analyses, using data from many countries, that agree on this basic point: The greatest dangers lie in the weeks, not months, after a COVID infection
Desperate Long COVID Patients Turn to Unproven Therapies - Entrepreneur Maya McNulty, 49, was one of the first victims of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Schenectady, NY, businesswoman spent 2 months in the hospital after catching the disease in March 2020. That September, she was diagnosed with long COVID. "Even a simple task such as unloading the dishwasher became a major challenge," she says. Over the next several months, McNulty saw a range of specialists, including neurologists, pulmonologists, and cardiologists. She had months of physical therapy and respiratory therapy to help regain strength and lung function. While many of the doctors she saw were sympathetic to what she was going through, not all were. "I saw one neurologist who told me to my face that she didn't believe in long COVID," she recalls. "It was particularly astonishing since the hospital they were affiliated with had a long COVID clinic." McNulty began to connect with other patients with long COVID through a support group she created at the end of 2020 on the social media app Clubhouse. They exchanged ideas and stories about what had helped one another, which led her to try, over the next year, a plant-based diet, Chinese medicine, and vitamin C supplements, among other treatments. She also acted on unscientific reports she found online and did her own research, which led her to discover claims that some asthma patients with chronic coughing responded well to halotherapy, or dry salt therapy, during which patients inhale micro-particles of salt into their lungs to reduce inflammation, widen airways, and thin mucus. It's not cheap – a single half-hour session can cost up to $50 and isn't covered by insurance. There's also no good research to suggest that it can help with long COVID, according to the Cleveland Clinic. Across the country, 16 million Americans have long COVID, according to the Brookings Institution's analysis of a 2022 Census Bureau report. The report also estimated that up to a quarter of them have such debilitating symptoms that they are no longer able to work. While long COVID centers may offer therapies to help relieve symptoms, "there are no evidence-based established treatments for long COVID at this point," says Andrew Schamess, MD, a professor of internal medicine at Ohio State Wexner Medical Center, who runs its Post-COVID Recovery Program. "You can't blame patients for looking for alternative remedies to help them. Unfortunately, there are also a lot of people out to make a buck who are selling unproven and disproven therapies." With few evidence-based treatments for long COVID, patients with debilitating symptoms can be tempted by unproven options. One that has gotten a lot of attention is hyperbaric oxygen. This therapy has traditionally been used to treat divers who have decompression sickness, or the bends. It's also being touted by some clinics as an effective treatment for long COVID. A very small trial of 73 patients with long COVID, published this July in the journal Scientific Reports , found that those treated in a high-pressure oxygen system 5 days a week for 2 months showed improvements in brain fog, pain, energy, sleep, anxiety, and depression, compared with similar patients who got sham treatments. But larger studies are needed to show how well it works, notes Schamess. "It's very expensive – roughly $120 per session – and there just isn't the evidence there to support its use," he says. In addition, the therapy itself carries risks, such as ear and sinus pain, middle ear injury, temporary vision changes, and, very rarely, lung collapse, according to the FDA.
Long COVID Was a Preventable Tragedy. Some of Us Saw It Coming - In 2012, I was hit by a sudden fever and dizziness. The fever got better, but over the next 6 months, my health declined, and by December I was almost completely bedbound. The many symptoms were overwhelming: muscle weakness, almost paralyzing fatigue, and brain dysfunction so severe, I had trouble remembering a four-digit PIN for 10 seconds. Electric shock-like sensations ran up and down my legs. At one point, as I tried to work, letters on my computer monitor began swirling around, a terrifying experience that only years later I learned was called oscillopsia. My heart rate soared when I stood, making it difficult to remain upright. I learned I had post-infectious myalgic encephalomyelitis, also given the unfortunate name chronic fatigue syndrome by the CDC (now commonly known as ME/CFS). The illness ended my career as a newspaper science and medical reporter and left me 95% bedbound for more than 2 years. As I read about ME/CFS, I discovered a history of an illness not only neglected, but also denied. It left me in despair. In 2015, I wrote to then-NIH director Francis Collins, MD, and asked him to reverse decades of inattention from the National Institutes of Health. To his credit, he did. He moved responsibility for ME/CFS from the small Office of Women's Health to the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and asked that institute's head of clinical neurology, neurovirologist Avindra Nath, MD, to design a study exploring the biology of the disorder. But the coronavirus pandemic interrupted the study, and Nath gave his energy to autopsies and other investigations of COVID-19. In May 2017, I was patient No. 4 in a group of 20 taking part in a deep and intense study at the National Institutes of Health aimed at getting to the root causes of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome, a disease that causes extreme exhaustion, sleep issues, and pain, among other symptoms. What the researchers found as they took our blood, harvested our stem cells, ran tests to check our brain function, put us through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), strapped us to tilt tables, ran tests on our heart and lungs, and more could have helped prepare doctors everywhere for the avalanche of long COVID cases that's come alongside the pandemic. Instead, we are all still waiting for answers. In the spring of 2020, I and other patient advocates warned that a wave of disability would follow the novel coronavirus. The National Academy of Medicine estimates that between 800,000 and 2.5 million Americans had ME/CFS before the pandemic. Now, with billions of people worldwide having been infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVD-19, the ranks of people whose lives have been upended by post-viral illness has swelled into nearly uncountable millions. Back in July 2020, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci, MD, said that long COVID is "strikingly similar" to ME/CFS. It was, and is, a preventable tragedy. Along with many other patient advocates, I've watched in despair as friend after friend, person after person on social media, describe the symptoms of ME/CFS after COVID-19: "I got mildly sick"; "I thought I was fine – then came overwhelming bouts of fatigue and muscle pain"; "my extremities tingle"; "my vision is blurry"; "I feel like a have a never-ending hangover"; "my brain stopped working"; "I can't make decisions or complete daily tasks"; "I had to stop exercising after short sessions flattened me." And it is true that some, or maybe even many, people with brain fog and fatigue after a mild case of COVID will recover. This happens after many infections; it's called post-viral fatigue syndrome. But patients and a growing number of doctors now understand that many long COVID patients could and should be diagnosed with ME/CFS, which is lifelong and incurable. Growing evidence shows their immune systems are haywire; their nervous systems dysfunctional. They fit all of the published criteria for ME, which require 6 months of nonstop symptoms, most notably post-exertional malaise (PEM), the name for getting sicker after doing something, almost anything. Exercise is not advised for people with PEM, and increasingly, research shows many people who have long COVID also cannot tolerate exercise. Several studies show that around half of all long COVID patients qualify for a diagnosis of ME/CFS. Half of a large number is a large number.
Australian doctors struggling to meet demand of patients seeking help for long Covid, inquiry told - Long Covid clinics across the country are being inundated with requests for assessments from patients struggling with ongoing symptoms, an inquiry has heard. Doctors told the federal parliamentary inquiry into long and repeated coronavirus infections that they were struggling to keep up with demand as waitlists increased. At least 10 million Australians have been infected with Covid and it is estimated 3-5% will develop long Covid at some point. Long Covid is characterised by long-term health issues including heart palpitations and extreme fatigue, occurring three months after someone first develops Covid symptoms. To be classified as long Covid, symptoms then need to last at least two months, according to the World Health Organization. “Our waitlist is increasing because what we’ve observed is that it can take some time for the recognition of post-Covid conditions, particularly with the fatigue-predominant types, to reach us,” Patients are usually referred to specialist clinics through a GP and while there is no official cure, symptoms can sometimes be treated on a case-by-case basis. The inquiry by the House of Representatives health committee is investigating the economic, social, educational and health impacts of long Covid and repeat infections. Infectious disease physician Dr Irani Thevarajan from Melbourne’s Peter Doherty Institute said more resources were required to keep up with demand. “I wouldn’t say it’s overwhelming the health system, I just think we’ve got an increased demand and we’re trying to meet that demand by increasing our resources and capacity,” “If you’ve got 10 million people infected, if it’s 3%, that’s 300,000 people … big numbers,” she said. “Even if they are overestimates, in a disease where there’s a high proportion of the community getting infected, then a small percentage becomes consequential.” Meanwhile, New South Wales has scrapped mandatory reporting of positive Covid tests and in Victoria, masks will no longer be required at schools. Physical distancing measures and staff vaccination requirements will also be scrapped and alerts about positive cases at schools will no longer happen as the Victorian pandemic declaration comes to an end at midnight on Wednesday. Nationally, it will no longer be mandatory to self-isolate at home if you test positive for Covid from Friday.
Peru lifts safety measures against COVID - Peru’s Ministry of Health (Minsa) recently announced that the mask mandate implemented at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is ending. This was confirmed in detail by the government on September 29 in Supreme Decree 118-2022-PCM. The decree provides that masking will only be mandatory in health establishments, on public ground transport, in closed places without ventilation, and for individuals presenting symptoms of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 vaccination cards will no longer be required for entry to shopping centers, markets, supermarkets, sports associations, entertainment venues (discotheques, salsódromos, pubs and the like), concerts, theaters, cinemas, gyms, churches, restaurants and similar crowded areas. In treating the virus as “under control,” Minsa is bowing to the dictates of Peru’s bourgeoisie and foreign investors that Peru’s working class and rural masses must learn to “live with the virus” so profits can be assured. Minsa’s flimsy justifications for these abrupt policy reversals consisted of a slight decrease in infections and deaths in September, and an increase in COVID vaccination numbers. According to Minsa, the number of people inoculated with at least one dose has reached 29,859,497, or 89 percent of the population, and those with two doses 28,203,284, or 84 percent. But the number of citizens with three doses is significantly lower, 20,647,039, or only 62 percent. Meanwhile, less than 15 percent of the population in Peru, under five million, have received a fourth dose, which is widely advocated by the world scientific community for vulnerable people. Especially given the high rate of reinfection, the government is gambling with the lives of millions, particularly as to those who are unvaccinated or have received only one or two doses.
Uganda is battling Ebola again – and the world doesn't have a vaccine - Ebola is one of those diseases you’d rather not know about. It has ahigh mortality rate, often over 50%, and while the symptoms start with a fever and headache, in the latter stages, the body internally bleeds to death. Because it’s spread through body fluids, such as an infectious person’s blood, vomit, urine, saliva, sweat or semen, it’s not as infectious as respiratory pathogens such as Covid-19, which spread through air. Those most at risk of Ebola are healthcare workers and family members caring for their sick loved ones.Uganda is currently battling one of its largest outbreaks of Ebola. The Ugandan outbreak is caused by the Sudan strain of the virus, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments. This is why the new outbreak is particularly concerning public health experts. As with Covid-19, the race is now on to find an effective vaccine: there are two potential candidates from GSK and Oxford, and clinical trials are being launched in the middle of this outbreak.The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said there have already been 63 confirmed Ebola cases and 29 deaths. Four of those dead were health workers. Cases were first detected in the Mubende district among people living around a goldmine. Gold traders are highly mobile, particularly along the busy highway that runs between Kampala, a densely populated and globally connected capital of 1.68 million people, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west. .. We’re all sick of viruses and diseases by now. Covid has led to fatigue, and many don’t want to hear about public health and hygiene efforts any more. Yet viruses don’t care what we feel or whether we want to hear about them. The history of humanity is one of various germs trying to kill us, and our efforts to stay ahead of them using science and data. There is clear survival bias that shapes our thinking about the Covid pandemic. It’s easy to look back in a post-vaccine era and say it wasn’t so bad, especially because we’re surrounded by those who were infected and lived. Those who died don’t have a voice. The Ugandan health secretary, Jane Aceng, has said that local people initially thought the new Ebola outbreak was caused by witchcraft, so didn’t seek medical care. It took government intervention to create a broader understanding that the disease was caused by the Ebola virus. Rumours, whether in person or online, can undermine health efforts in all countries, rich or poor, as demonstrated by the viral Facebook and Twitter posts that Covid is a hoax, and that vaccines are killing people.Aceng has repeatedly called on other countries to provide funding to support Uganda’s public health workforce through adequate personal protective equipment. Health staff need single-use medical gowns, double nitrile gloves, masks, face shields, surgical hoods and long boot coverings to work safely. The health secretary has continuously raised the alarm that this disease could spread to neighbouring countries and on flights across the world. Uganda needs help. At the same time that it’s managing this Ebola outbreak, the country also faces a resurgence of malaria, tuberculosis, HIV, as well as the toll of Covid-19, all while having far less resources than western nations (30% of Ugandans live off less than $1.77 (£1.50) per person a day).But the calls from Uganda’s health secretary have been met by silence and a sense of fatigue from leaders across the world. Even Uganda’s own president, Yoweri Museveni, said last month that there was no reason for anxiety, panic, closures or any kind of restrictions on movement. We’ve seen similar splits in Britain, whereby politicians and health experts seem to be pulling in different directions. Yet Aceng is right: if the outbreak reaches Kampala and starts spreading out to neighbouring countries, it will become harder and harder to control. We know that the most effective response is to put out the fire as soon as possible, and so the faster other countries help Uganda control this outbreak, the less likely that you’ll be reading about the first cases in Britain or Europe.
US reroutes passengers from Uganda for screening as Ebola outbreak spreads --As the Ebola outbreak intensifies in Uganda, the Biden administration announced last Thursday that all passengers who had been in the African nation in the last 21 days would be diverted to airports in New York, Newark, Atlanta, Chicago or Washington where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection would conduct screening to determine if they are infected. As Politico recently noted, “The FAA could not immediately provide a list of how many flights from Uganda head stateside on a daily basis, but foreign carriers such as KLM and Emirates offer flights to multiple American destinations.” Besides a risk assessment, visual symptoms and temperature check, the travelers’ contact information would be shared with local and state health departments. However, rather than offering Uganda the necessary expertise or the funds requested by the World Health Organization (WHO) to contain and combat the spread of the deadly virus, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra offered Ugandan Health Minister Dr. Jane Aceng Ocero a perfunctory message of goodwill, saying that the administration was ready “to support Uganda through this challenging period.” The WHO has released $2 million from its contingency fund for emergencies and sending additional specialists, supplies and resources. But this tiny amount will hardly cover the cost of a large-scale public health intervention to stamp out the Ebola outbreaks that threatens to spill over into Uganda’s densely populated capital, Kampala. The international agency had called for $18 million, but Ugandan health officials had indicated that far more would be required to cover logistics and manpower.
Toxic Pollutants a Growing Concern for Pregnant Mothers and Babies - Deborah Bell-Holt lives near a decades-old drilling site in South L.A., where oil sucked to the surface comes laced with dangerous pollutants like benzene, formaldehyde, methane and toluene. What comes up must go somewhere, and BellHolt is sick at the prospect of how much toxic pollution ends up inside the bodies of her family and friends. “There are moments where I’m so furious,” says Bell-Holt, 69, who has fostered six children. All of them, like her, suffer chronic asthma, a problem linked to the proximity of oil drilling. Some children have terrible skin problems. Her husband has been battling leukemia for several years. As if that wasn’t enough, Bell-Holt now worries about a new generation. “My oldest child is 26, and she has a child that’s 3 years old, and they’re both asthmatic, and they both live here.” Pregnant mothers living close to oil drilling sites, for example, are at greater risk Black Infant Mortality: In L.A. County, the infant mortality rate for Black residents is three times that of whites. The county pledged in 2018 to cut the gap by 30% by 2023. One year from the target date, the disparity remains the same. More than 2.1 million Californians live within 2,500 feet of an operational oil well. Bell-Holt said her granddaughter’s asthma has worsened. “She’ll tell you, ‘My chest hurts. I can’t breathe.’ And my daughter takes her immediately off to the children’s hospital. And then she’ll get a breathing treatment, antibiotics and steroids. But the steroids are not good for her to have. She’s a baby — what does she need to be on steroids for to breathe?” A growing body of research links prolonged exposure to dangerous pollutants and toxic chemicals in the air, drinking water and neighborhood environment, as well as everyday cleaning and beauty products, to serious health problems for mothers, young infants and babies in the womb. Black and Latino communities appear particularly vulnerable. In L.A. County, these communities are found disproportionately in heavily polluted neighborhoods, and they suffer disproportionately higher rates of maternal and infant death. All sorts of social determinants — such as poverty, quality of housing, access to good Experts have determined that institutionalized discrimination is the overarching cause for the high death rate among Black mothers and their infants. health care and obesity rates — can play a role in infant and maternal health outcomes. But experts have determined that institutionalized discrimination is the overarching cause for the high death rate among Black mothers and their infants. Over time, the stress this causes has a corrosive “weathering” effect on the body, predisposing Black women to chronic conditions like hypertension and gestational diabetes that put them at higher risk during pregnancy. Environmental health experts say that exposure to toxic pollutants adds another layer of stress — another burden for the overburdened to shoulder.5:12 AM
Air pollution: Toxic particles present in lungs of unborn babies - Previous research shows that specific environmental hazards can impact an unborn baby.For example, scientists link exposure to secondhand smoke during pregnancy to a 13% increased risk of birth defects and a 23% increased risk of stillbirth.And researchers have also found that exposure to lead, pesticides, and air pollution can impact the health of a baby in the uterus.Now a research team from the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, United Kingdom, and Hasselt University in Belgium has found evidence of air pollution particles in the lungs, liver, and brain of unborn babies. The scientists believe the particles are able to cross the placenta and enter the fetus while in the womb as early as the first trimester of pregnancy.This study recently appeared in the journal Lancet Planetary Health. According to the study’s joint senior author Dr. Tim Nawrot, professor of environmental epidemiology at Hasselt University, the main purpose of this research was to determine whether air pollution could reach an unborn baby.“Previously, we found that particles could get from the maternal lungs to the placenta,” he told Medical News Today. “If they can get from lungs to blood, they are so small that they probably can reach all organs, [including] that of the next generation via gestational exposure.”For this study, researchers focused on a type of air pollution nanoparticle called black carbon. Also known as soot particles, these black particles are the result of burning coal, diesel, and other biomass fuels.Household energy produces little over half of all black carbon, followed by transportation accounting for about 26% of all black carbon emissions.In addition to having an adverse effect on the environment, past research also shows black carbon has a negative impact on a person’s health, being linked to cardiovascular disease,asthma, and premature death.For the study, the research team examined maternal-perinatal and fetal samples from Belgium and the U.K. Scientists utilized a technology called femtosecond pulsed illuminationto check for the presence of black carbon in the samples.“Before our study, nobody knew for sure whether black carbon nanoparticles actually got into the fetus itself,” Prof. Paul Fowler, chair in translational medical sciences at the University of Aberdeen and the second joint senior author of this study explained for MNT.“We established that not only did the black carbon nanoparticles enter the placenta in the first- and second-trimester human fetus, but also got into the fetal organs, specifically the liver, lung, and brain,” he told us. Prof. Fowler said the team was surprised at how similar black carbon nanoparticle levels in the human fetus were to those in the placenta:
Toxic PFAS pollution is likely at more than 57,000 US locations: Report -Toxic PFAS have likely contaminated roughly 57,412 locations across the U.S., according to a new study.Those locations include certain industrial facilities, waste processing facilities, and places where firefighting foam containing PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) have been used, such as airports and military bases.The study, published today in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters,found likely PFAS contamination sites in all 50 states. It is the first study to use existing scientific data on PFAS contamination to create a model that can predict locations where contamination is likely.“PFAS contamination at these sites is not just possible, but probable,” Alissa Cordner, senior author on the paper and co-director of the PFAS Project Lab, told EHN. “Testing for PFAS is extremely expensive and requires a lot of time and technical capacity… One of our big goals is to help decision makers prioritize testing and remediation at these locations based on this high likelihood of contamination.”PFAS don’t break down naturally, so they linger in the environment and human bodies. Exposure is linked to health problems including kidney and testicular cancer, liver and thyroid problems, reproductive problems, lowered vaccine efficacy in children and increased risk of birth defects, among others.The chemicals have been found in drinking water systems throughout the U.S., in the bodies of humans and animals around the globe, in plants and crops, and even in rainwater at levels too high for safe consumption.Research on the chemicals has increased in recent years, but due to a lack of testing requirements at the federal level, we lack critical data about the scale, scope, and severity of PFAS releases and contamination in the U.S.The new study helps fill that gap and also provides a map of presumptive contamination sites. The researchers looked at 11 existing studies and regulatory lists that clearly linked levels of PFAS contamination to specific types of facilities, then referenced national databases to map the location of similar sites across the country.To ensure its accuracy, the researchers compared the results from their model against their existing map of known contamination sites based on published PFAS testing data, and found that about 70% of known contamination sites were captured by the model. The remaining 30% of sites were locations where PFAS have been found by testing at locations where they wouldn’t be expected by the model. "This model is likely an underestimation of contaminated sites,” Cordner said. “For example, we know that locations where sludge has been applied to farmland, and locations where firefighting foam has been used in training exercises are likely to be contaminated, but there are no federal databases of those sites, so they aren’t included here.”
US firms exploiting Trump-era loophole over toxic ‘forever chemicals’ - Chemical companies are dodging a federal law designed to track how many PFAS “forever chemicals” their plants are discharging into the environment by exploiting a loophole created in the Trump administration’s final months, a new analysis of federal records has found.The Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act put in place requirements that companies discharging over 100lb annually of the dangerous chemicals report the releases to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). But during the implementation process, Trump’s EPA created an unusual loophole that at least five chemical companies have exploited.The amount of PFAS being discharged into the air, water or disposed of on land “could be much higher than we already know”, said Jared Hayes, a policy analyst with the Environmental Working Group (EWG) and a report co-author.“Allowing manufacturers to skirt reporting requirements has serious public health consequences for communities that live near facilities that use PFAS and they have a right to know how many forever chemicals companies are releasing,” he wrote.PFAS are a class of about 12,000 chemicals typically used to make thousands of products resist water, stain and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down, and accumulate in humans and the environment. A growing body of evidence links them to serious health problems like cancer, birth defects, liver disease and autoimmune disorders.The chemicals are estimated to be contaminating drinking water for over 200 million people in the US, and state and federal regulators have passed a barrage of new legislation in recent years designed to rein in pollution.Public health advocates say PFAS discharges from chemical plants have sickened residents living near or downstream from them. Contamination from a Chemours factory in North Carolina has contaminated hundreds of square miles around the facility, and DuPont paid $670m (£610m) for sickening thousands of residents near its West Virginia PFAS production plant.EWG’s analysis of federal reporting records identified five plants discharging unknown amounts of 14 PFAS compounds, though there may be more.The Trump EPA gave PFAS an unusual exemption under the law that allows companies not to report discharges if the amounts are “negligible”, which is defined as less than 1% of a total mixture. The rule is referred to as the “de minimis exemption”. Companies discharging thousands of pounds of PFAS could have gotten their releases under the 1% threshold via several routes, said Melanie Benesh, EWG’s vice-president of government affairs. Companies may have added water to PFAS to dilute it to the point that it is below 1%. However, the total amount of PFAS released is still high, and may present a threat once in the environment.
EPA's chemical safety rule tests the Biden Administration’s commitment to environmental justice – EHN -In christening a new office of environmental justice, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan proclaimed on Sept. 24 that “underserved and overburdened communities are at the forefront of our work.”A stern test of that proclamation began just two days later. On Sept. 26, the EPA held the first of three virtual listening sessions on the Biden administration’s proposal tostrengthen its chemical disaster rule. Many safety measures were gutted by the Trump administration’s EPA, which was run by coal and chemical industry lobbyists. During the Trump administration, polluters were relieved of the need to tell the public what chemicals they store, to conduct analyses of safer technologies, to seek third-party audits after accidents, or conduct root-cause analyses of any underlying, systemic reasons an accident occurred.From the listening session, it was clear that while Regan and President Biden talk a good game about elevating environmental justice to an unprecedented pedestal in federal priorities, their revisions of chemical safety rules remain far from satisfactory to many in the communities that suffer some of the most debilitating daily emissions, the ever-present risk of explosions and spills, and society’s general silence over decades of racist and classist industrial dumping.Nicole Coggins of Louisville, Kentucky, spoke during the session as a parent who lives a mile from the industrial district nicknamed “Rubbertown.” The district’s factories, according to the city’s website, “produce a wide variety of chemicals and materials, employ hundreds of people and bring millions of dollars into the local economy.” But for Coggins, though, and for many in the local grassroots group REACT (Rubbertown Community Action), Rubbertown spews a stench so bad that it constantly envelops their neighborhood and seeps into their houses.Coggins said she can’t open the windows because that would let in even more foul odors and that the neighborhood stunk on the very day of her testimony when she sent her boys off to school at 6:30 in the morning. Speaking of those who profit from the industries and saying that the fumes often make her forego her walks in local parks and stop her boys from riding bikes and playing playground basketball, she said, “It is greedy, it is nasty, it is ungodly.” The EPA proposes to deal with some of the nastiness by reviving third-party audits “for facilities with a bad track record of accidents.” The agency’s proposed rule would require “certain facilities with high accident rates” to undergo analysis to see if they can use safer technologies and alternative methods for their operations. It would seek to enhance employee participation in accident prevention plans and factor in climate change as a risk to facilities.
Toxic ‘forever chemicals’ detected in commonly used insecticides in US, study finds - ‘Screamingly high’ levels of PFOS, one of the most dangerous PFAS compounds, found in six out of 10 insecticides tested. Toxic PFAS chemicals have been detected in seven out of 10 insecticides tested in the US, according to new research. Six contained what the study’s lead author characterized as “screamingly high” levels of PFOS, one of the most dangerous PFAS compounds. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has known about the findings for more than 18 months but appears to have not yet investigated the products or taken any action against the manufacturer. PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, can be taken up by crops. Such high levels in pesticides create a health risk if spread on fields where food is grown, public health advocates say. “We know PFOS is a carcinogen, we know it’s a deadly chemical and there’s no safe level in drinking water,” said Kyla Bennett, a former EPA official and science policy director with the non-profit Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), which issued a press release on the study. “Our soil and water are now contaminated.” In a statement, the EPA told the Guardian it’s reviewing active ingredients used in pesticides – those which kill pests – to determine if any are PFAS. However, PFOS could be an inert ingredient. Per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, are a class of about 12,000 chemicals typically used to make thousands of products water-, stain- and heat-resistant. They do not naturally break down and accumulate in humans and the environment. A growing body of evidence links them to serious health problems such as cancer, birth defects, liver disease, kidney disease, autoimmune disorders, high cholesterol and decreased immunity. Researchers from Texas Tech University checked 10 insecticides that were being used on cotton, but can also be used on food and other crops. The peer-reviewed study, published in Journal of Hazardous Materials Letters, found PFAS in seven of these “widely used” insecticides, said environmental toxicologist and lead author Steve Lasee, who was at Texas Tech University at the time of the study. He is now an independent consultant with Lasee Research and Consulting and a research fellow for the EPA. Testing revealed PFOS at a level as high as 19m parts per trillion (ppt) in one insecticide. The EPA hasn’t set limits for PFAS in pesticides, but in June it lowered its advisory health limit in drinking water to 0.02 ppt, a level so low as to suggest no amount of exposure to the compound is safe.
WHO publish report on microplastics in drinking water - In 2015, humans produced around 407 million tons of plastic.However, plastic does not biodegrade; instead, it breaks down into progressively smaller pieces of plastic.This means that in our environment, there are pieces of plastic measurable in both meters and nanometers.Tiny pieces of plastic, or “microplastics,” end up everywhere — including the water supply.A recent review collated 50 studies wherein scientists found microplastics in fresh water, drinking water, or waste water. Some of these studies counted thousands of microplastic particles in every liter of drinking water. Theoretically, if a person consumes them, some microplastics are small enough to pass through the gut wall and enter the circulatory system. Whether or not this happens, and whether or not it impacts human health, remains unknown. Because plastics are ubiquitous in the environment, and because they are not going away, it is vital that we understand the effects — if any. A recent WHO report set out to develop a clearer picture. Although the report finds that evidence of all three routes is incredibly limited, it concludes that the latter two are of least concern.According to the researchers’ analysis, microplastics larger than 150 micrometers probably do not enter the human body; smaller particles may get in, but they believe that uptake is limited.Absorption of nanosized particles might be more common, but again, data are limited.Animal studies have produced evidence to suggest that our bodies might absorb very small microplastics. However, the WHO report explains that these studies used “extremely high exposures that would not occur in drinking water.” The lack of available information is not surprising; the public’s keen focus on plastic is a relatively recent phenomenon. In general, a lack of interest means a lack of funding and, therefore, a lack of research. When the researchers looked at toxicology studies, the evidence was equally sparse. The authors write that the studies “are of questionable reliability and relevance, with some impacts observed only at very high concentrations” that “do not accurately reflect potential toxicities that could occur at lower levels of exposure.” “We urgently need to know more about the health impact of microplastics because they are everywhere — including in our drinking water,” The WHO end their report with a call to focus on treating water contaminated with feces.They explain that treating drinking water properly also removes the majority of microplastics. They say, “According to available data, waste water treatment can effectively remove more than 90% of microplastics from waste water.”
600 Million Metric Tons of Plastic May Fill Oceans by 2036 If We Don’t Act Now –= As the private transportation sector shifts focus to batteries, biofuels, and green hydrogen, fossil fuel stakeholders have been seeking new avenues of revenue in the petrochemical industry in general, and in plastics in particular. That’s bad news for a world already swimming—literally—in plastic pollution. Product manufacturers and other upstream forces could reverse the petrochemical trend, but only if they—along with policymakers, voters, and consumers—continue to push for real change beyond the business-as-usual strategy of only advocating for post-consumer recycling. Some signs of change are beginning to emerge. Public awareness is growing over the plastic pollution crisis, including the area of microplastics. A study commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund in 2020 found 86 percent of consumers in the United States were willing to support measures to cut down on plastic pollution, such as single-use plastic bag bans and increased recycling. Private sector efforts to reduce plastic packaging are also beginning to take effect. However, these trends won’t necessarily lead to a global slowdown in plastic production or use, let alone a reversal. The United States, for example, is both a leading producer of plastic and the largest source of plastic waste in the world. The OECD estimates that, under a “business-as-usual” scenario, plastic waste will triple globally by 2060. Petrochemical producers are also eyeing growing markets in Asia and Africa.Even if some nations kick the plastic habit, the global benefit of their efforts could easily be offset by rising demand for plastics elsewhere in the world. In a 2016 report titled, “The New Plastics Economy,” the World Economic Forum (WEF) noted that global plastic production totaled 311 million metric tons in 2014, up from just 15 million metric tons in 1964. The WEF also anticipated that the total plastic production would double to more than 600 million metric tons by 2036.One key driver that is fueling plastic production is the increased availability of low-cost natural gas in the U.S., which was a result of the George W. Bush administration’s successful efforts to lift Clean Water Act protections on shale gas operations, resulting in “billions of gallons of toxic frack fluid from being regulated as industrial waste,” according to Greenpeace USA. By 2018, the shale gas boom of the early 2000s was credited with stimulating a decade-long petrochemical buildoutin the U.S. totaling 333 chemical industry projects since 2010, with a cumulative value of $202.4 billion. Of interest from a global perspective, almost 70 percent of the financing was from direct or indirect foreign sources.Another driving force on the supply side is the shift from crude oil (petrol) to oil for plastic production, a trend fostered in part by a glut of ethane produced by the fracking boom. The decarbonization of the transportation sector does not necessarily slow down crude oil production to refineries. “As traditional demands for oil—vehicle fuels—are declining as the transport sector is increasingly electrified, the oil industry is seeing plastics as a key output that can make up for losses in other markets,” noted a November 2021 article in the Conversation. Consequently, refiners are becoming more dependent on the petrochemical market.
A California city’s water supply is expected to run out in two months— The residents of this sun-scorched city feel California’s endless drought when the dust lifts off the brown hills and flings grit into their living rooms. They see it when they drive past almond trees being ripped from the ground for lack of water and the new blinking sign at the corner of Elm and Cherry warning: “No watering front yard lawns.”The fire chief noticed it when he tested hydrants in August — a rare occurrence as Coalinga desperately seeks to conserve water — and the first one shot out a foot-long block of compacted dirt. The second one ejected like a can of Axe body spray. The schools superintendent could only think drought on the first day of school when a 4-year-old fell onto unwatered turf, breaking an arm; or when the chain saws dropped three coastal redwoods outside Henry F. Bishop Elementary that had withered and died. Superintendent Lori Villanueva even lost a portion of her own right lung last year from a drought-aggravated illness, valley fever, that’s caused by breathing soil fungus whipped up off the dry ground. But what lies ahead might be far worse for the 17,000 residents living amid the oil derricks and cattle farms on the western edge of the state’s Central Valley. Coalinga has only one source of water — a shrinking allotment from an aqueduct managed by the federal government — and officials are projecting the city will use up that amount before the end of the year.That looming threat has left city officials racing between meetings in Sacramento and phone calls to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation seeking to increase their water supply. Some residents have begun stockpiling five-gallon water jugs in their homes, while many expect major spikes in their water bills. If Coalinga can’t find relief, it would be forced to buy additional water on the open market at exorbitant prices that could swamp the city’s budget.That was the grim scenario facing Mayor Ron Ramsey when he rapped his knuckles on the table and cursed at a City Council meeting in early August. Everyone but Ramsey had just voted to ban watering front yards and to ramp up penalties on overuse — measures they conceded would not save nearly what was needed. But it was more than Ramsey could stomach.“It’s too much. Too fast,” Ramsey told the room. On top of that, he said, it wasn’t fair. “Go to the state capitol and they got green grass, don’t they?” he said. “They can do it, but why can’t we?”
Thousands of salmon found dead as Canada drought dries out river - Tens of thousands of dead wild salmon scattered along a creek bed are the latest casualty of a drought that has gripped the province of British Columbia for more than a month and left communities bracing for more devastation. In a video clip posted to social media, the carcasses of pink and chum salmon are seen piled near the community of Bella Bella. “It’s just devastating to see this happen. River levels [are] low everywhere right now – not just in Heiltsuk territory. This drought is coast-wide right now,” William Housty, conservation manager with the Heiltsuk Nation, told the Guardian. “We see pre-spawn mortality on [an] annual basis. But never to this degree.” The video was taken last week by German researcher Sarah Mund, who joined a crew on a stream walk to gauge the health and size of salmon populations returning to spawn. Wild salmon typically wait for rains as their signal to journey up creeks and rivers – an indicator that water levels will rise and provide easier passage to natal streams. Housty says a brief afternoon rain 10 days ago, coupled with a high tide, gave the salmon a false signal to start. No more rain came and the creek dried up, leaving the fish stranded. “We’ve had one afternoon of rain in more than a month,” he said. “Without the rain and tide, I suspect a many of those salmon would have likely been holding [in the ocean] and waiting. They haven’t had enough time adjust to the reality of this drought.” One biologist estimated there were 65,000 dead salmon in the creek bed – more than 70% of which failed to spawn. Housty says the deaths come at a time when the community had been optimistic about the recovery of both pink and chum populations. The coaster waters of the Heiltsuk have long home to healthy chum populations, but those numbers have declined in recent years, part of a broader collapse of wild salmon. “It’s heartbreaking to see this. It really felt like we were turning the corner on their recovery,” Housty says.
Drought, habitat destruction jeopardizing wildlife - Tehran Times – Climate change, drought, and the destruction of natural habitats are among the most important threats to wildlife. An ecology expert Abdollah Salari pointing to the importance of key species highlighted that the only way to protect the key species is through culture promotion. Keystone and umbrella species are ecologically very important for the people and culture of their local community for various reasons. As they cover other species and bring them under their protective umbrella. In this way, the protection of other species and the entire ecosystem is done much better, he explained. Most carnivores are considered keystone species. For example, the cheetah is a key species because it is at the top of the ecological pyramid, it is important for society's culture, and it is also a carnivore. The umbrella species are indirectly involved in the conservation of many other species at the ecosystem or landscape level while the keystone species are the species that play disproportionately a larger role in the prevalence and population levels of other species within their ecosystem or community. Each ecosystem has its own key species that are not necessarily carnivores. As an example, in Lorestan, the Luristan newt is a key and endangered species of that ecosystem, he said. He went on to state that key species are not necessarily in danger of extinction, but unfortunately, most of them are usually endangered. As an example, the panda is an iconic species in terms of appearance and ideology, but at the same time, in danger of extinction. The panda is a typical example of an umbrella species that can support other species in the ecosystem, he said. The Asiatic cheetah is present in desert ecosystems such as Turan and Miandasht wildlife sanctuaries. By highlighting the cheetah in these areas, all species are supported and protected, he said. Road construction, mining, excessive livestock, power transmission lines, agricultural lands, and rainfed farming are challenges that threaten wildlife species, and off-roading is one of the modern challenges that need to be managed, he said, referring to climate change, drought, and destruction of natural habitats as the most important threats.
Cattle industry sees red over Google flagging beef emissions - The beef industry has a bone to pick with Google. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association wants the tech giant to rein in a planned feature that would automatically display the emission intensity of certain ingredients when its users search for recipes. The trade group argues such emission metrics don’t fully capture the environmental benefits of beef. But agriculture experts say the association’s complaints are a bunch of bull. “What they’re doing is confusing consumers,” said Danielle Nierenberg, the president of the sustainable agriculture advocacy group Food Tank, referring to the association. “They’re a huge lobby group that is paid by their members to support beef, no matter what the truth is.” At issue is a planned search feature that would compare the “average greenhouse gas impact” of potential ingredients, based on the United Nations’ emissions data. It’s part of a broader suite of sustainability efforts Google has undertaken in recent years, such as a new Google Maps feature that highlights the most fuel-efficient route and an overhaul of its office food program to reduce meat consumption. In a blog post last month, Hema Budaraju, the director of Google Search, said the ingredient emissions feature would soon be available to all English-speaking users. She included a sample search for a panang curry recipe, which included an information box showing that beef has the highest emissions per pound of around a dozen potential ingredients. “Small changes can add up to a big impact,” she said in the post. “The future of our planet — and everyone on it — deserves nothing less.” Then on Tuesday, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association denounced Google’s planned search feature. “Google is using its billions of dollars of resources to target cattle producers and ignore the science that demonstrates beef’s sustainability and value to the environment,” Don Schiefelbein, the association’s president, said in a press release. “Cattle production protects green space, upcycles grass and forages, and provides consumers with a lean protein source packed with essential nutrients. Google should seriously reconsider this feature.”
New Zealand proposes taxing cow burps, angering farmers (AP) — New Zealand's government on Tuesday proposed taxing the greenhouse gasses that farm animals make from burping and peeing as part of a plan to tackle climate change. New Zealand's government on Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022 proposed taxing the greenhouse gasses that farm animals make from burping and peeing as part of a plan to tackle climate. The government said the farm levy would be a world first, and that farmers should be able to recoup the cost by charging more for climate-friendly products. But farmers quickly condemned the plan. Federated Farmers, the industry's main lobby group, said the plan would “rip the guts out of small-town New Zealand” and see farms replaced with trees. Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard said farmers had been trying to work with the government for more than two years on an emissions reduction plan that wouldn't decrease food production. “Our plan was to keep farmers farming," Hoggard said. Instead, he said farmers would be selling their farms “so fast you won’t even hear the dogs barking on the back of the ute (pickup truck) as they drive off.” Opposition lawmakers from the conservative ACT Party said the plan would actually increase worldwide emissions by moving farming to other countries that were less efficient at making food. New Zealand’s farming industry is vital to its economy. Dairy products, including those used to make infant formula in China, are the nation’s largest export earner. There are just 5 million people in New Zealand but some 10 million beef and dairy cattle and 26 million sheep. The outsized industry has made New Zealand unusual in that about half of its greenhouse gas emissions come from farms. Farm animals produce gasses that warm the planet, particularly methane from cattle burps and nitrous oxide from their urine. The debate in New Zealand is part of a broader global reckoning about farming's impact on the environment and the steps some say are needed for mitigation. In the Netherlands, farmers have dumped hay bales on roads and driven tractors along busy highways to protest government proposals to slash emissions of damaging pollutants. In New Zealand, the government has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the country carbon neutral by 2050. Part of that plan includes a pledge that it will reduce methane emissions from farm animals by 10% by 2030 and by up to 47% by 2050. Under the government's proposed plan, farmers would start to pay for emissions in 2025, with the pricing yet to be finalized. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said all the money collected from the proposed farm levy would be put back into the industry to fund new technology, research and incentive payments for farmers.
Inside the Global Effort to Keep Perfectly Good Food Out of the Dump - In Seoul, garbage cans automatically weigh how much food gets tossed in the trash. In London, grocers have stopped putting date labels on fruits and vegetables to reduce confusion about what is still edible. California now requires supermarkets to give away — not throw away — food that is unsold but fine to eat. Around the world, a broad array of efforts are being launched to tackle two pressing global problems: hunger and climate change.Food waste, when it rots in a landfill, produces methane gas, which quickly heats up the planet. But it’s a surprisingly tough problem to solve.Which is where Vue Vang, wrangler of excess, comes in. On a bright Monday morning recently, she pulled up behind a supermarket in Fresno, Calif., hopped off her truck and set out to rescue as much food as she could under the state’s new law — helping store managers comply with rules that many were still unaware of.Laid out for her was a shopping cart of about-to-expire hamburger buns and cookies. She knew there must be more. Within minutes, she had persuaded the staff members to give her several crates of milk marked “best by” the next day, as well as buttermilk and boxes of brussels sprouts, kale, cilantro, cut melons and corn. She nudged them: Are there eggs?“So much. So much goes to waste,” whispered Ms. Vang, who works with a local charity, Fresno Metro Ministry, to give food to people in need.In the United States, the single largest volume of material sent to landfills and incinerators comes from food waste. Worldwide, food waste accounts for 8 to 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, at least double that of emissions from aviation. According to estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, that is enough food to feedmore than a billion people.
U.K. heat waves linked to record excess deaths among elderly in England - — England’s scorching summer that sent temperatures to record-breaking highs has now been linked to a record number of excess deaths among the elderly.England recorded 2,803 excess deaths among those 65 and older, according to a recent analysisby the U.K. Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics. The government agencies said that was the highest figure among the elderly since they started tracking heat-related deaths in this way in 2004. “These figures demonstrate the possible impact that hot weather can have on the elderly and how quickly such temperatures can lead to adverse health effects in at-risk groups,” the groups said in a statement.On July 19, temperatures soared above 104 degrees Fahrenheit, or 40 degrees Celsius, thehottest day ever recorded in Britain. Train tracks buckled, several fires broke out across greater London, and in some areas officials issued their first “level 4 heat health alerts.” Scientists said the heat wave had been made at least 10 times as likely because of human-caused climate change. The agencies looked at the period between June and August, which featured several periods of punishing heat, with some heat waves occurring much earlier in the summer than usual. The UKHSA used data from England only — not Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the three other nations of the United Kingdom, where health is a devolved issue.“These estimates show clearly that high temperatures can lead to premature death for those who are vulnerable,” Isabel Oliver, chief scientific officer at UKHSA, said in a statement. “Higher excess deaths occurred during the hottest days this year and a warming climate means we must adapt to living safely with hotter summers in the future.”Climate scientists say that climate change is making periods of intense heat waves more frequent and that more needs to be done to prepare for extreme heat and the increased risk for those most vulnerable.The term “excess deaths” is used to refer to the number of deaths that exceed what is normally expected for that time of year.The agencies said that between July 17 and 20, there was an estimated 1,012 excess deaths in those older than 65. They said the period with the highest overall excess mortality in the elderly was from Aug. 8 to 17, with an estimated 1,458 excess deaths recorded in those over 65.
Extreme hot weather could make parts of Africa and Asia uninhabitable - By the year 2100, extreme heat events will make parts of Asia and Africa uninhabitable for up to 600 million people, the United Nations and the Red Cross said Monday. Projected death rates from heat waves are “staggeringly high,” comparable to all cancers or all infectious diseases, according to a reportreleased ahead of next month’s U.N. Climate Change Conference in Egypt by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The report adds to the growing number of studies that show climate change is exacerbating the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events. Heat waves in the Western United States this year broke hundreds of records after days of triple-digit temperatures and weeks of dry weather. The report’s findings “are startling and disturbing,” the authors wrote. Heat waves “will become deadlier with every further increment of climate change. We hope this report serves not only as a wake-up call but also a road map.” In a stark scenario, which would result if “little is done to curb carbon emissions,” densely populated urban centers in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa will suffer from “recurring life-threatening” heat events that bring temperatures beyond the human survivability threshold. That would affect 600 million people in countries such as India, Indonesia, Sudan and Kuwait, according to the report. Many of those regions are already experiencing increasingly hot and frequent heat events. The past seven years have been the hottest in recorded history, new data shows This year, India and Pakistan suffered a scorching streak that began in March. It shortened the school calendar and cut crop yields as the mercury reached 117 degrees Fahrenheit. Last year, parts of the Middle East topped 125 degrees during a heat wave. Five years before, a Kuwaiti town logged 129 degrees. By the end of this century, one-third of the global population could be living in areas with average temperatures above 84 degrees, which until now has been limited to 0.8 percent of the world’s land surface, mostly in Africa’s Sahara region, according to the report, which cited a 2019 study. Extreme heat waves will also make parts of the United States, including Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana and California, less suitable for human habitation by 2070, the report said, if global temperatures rise between 2 and 2.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. More frequent and more severe heat events will also kill more animals and destroy environments, exacerbating the fallout from such weather, according to the report. Food supplies will be disrupted, with extreme heat events potentially contributing to price volatility for staple crops like wheat. The fallout will be unequal. The most vulnerable and marginalized people, such as agricultural workers, migrants, the elderly, children, and pregnant and breastfeeding women, are at higher health risk from heat events, according to the report.
California's opening bid won't solve the Colorado River crisis alone - California’s offer to conserve some of its share of Colorado River water over the next few years won’t solve the looming water and power crisis in the West — but it might be enough to kickstart negotiations among the states on a deal that could.The biggest hurdle to striking an agreement that would sharply curtail water use among the seven states that share the river has been the impasse between the two thirstiest states — California and Arizona — over which should shoulder the brunt of the cuts as climate change fuels the deepest drought in the region in 1,200 years.California’s offer in a letter to federal officials last week to voluntarily reduce its consumption of Colorado River water by 400,000 acre feet per year between 2023 and 2026 doesn’t move the dial on that dispute. But it does represent the first time California — the biggest user and senior water rights holder on the system — has put an offer in writing. And it makes an explicit overture to other states to “immediately reengage” in broader negotiations. “We absolutely agree with the need to continue the discussions as proposed in the letter to keep moving forward in a positive manner.”Entrenched drought and decades of overuse have driven water levels at the river’s two main reservoirs precariously low, with levels at Glen Canyon Dam predicted to next year fall within a few feet of the point at which hydropower production would cease and the ability to deliver water downstream could be jeopardized. The federal Bureau of Reclamation has said that states need to conserve 2 million to 4 million acre feet next year just to head off a near-term disaster at the reservoirs.The offer outlined by California’s agricultural and urban water agencies last week matches the proposal the Golden State made during negotiations on a multi-state deal in August, which Arizona rejected as insufficient, Buschatzke said.“The reason I didn’t sign off on a plan in August was because there wasn’t enough water involved in total, and there wasn’t enough water involved in looking at comparatively what Arizona would put on the table and what California would put on the table,” Buschatzke said.Four hundred thousand acre feet represents 9 percent of California’s allocation of Colorado River water and only 20 percent of the lower end of the range of that federal Bureau of Reclamation says needs to be conserved. Arizona is using nearly 800,000 acre feet less than it is entitled to this year, whereas California is using its full allocation, and is pulling out additional water from Lake Mead on the Nevada-Arizona border that it had previously banked in the reservoir.But whether California’s ante makes significant progress on the goals laid out by Reclamation depends on whether it represents the sum total of California’s contribution, or comes on top of mandatory cuts being floated by the federal government.
Indigenous peoples' climate dilemma: To go or not to go - Land isn’t just a resource for many Indigenous peoples. It’s a sacred space, central to culture, livelihood and ancestry. As climate change displaces millions of people every year, Indigenous communities around the world are grappling with an impossible choice: to go, or not to go. According to a 2022 report by the UN Refugee Agency, at least 21.5 million people every year are displaced due to climate-related disasters, like droughts, wildfires and floods.Climbing temperatures driven by fossil fuel pollution are creating unlivable conditions for tribal communities across the world, according to Angelo Villagomez of the Center for American Progress, who is Indigenous Chamorro from the island of Saipan."If we lose this connection to the land, we lose who we are, and if we lose this diversity, of ways of knowing and ways of being, we lose something in terms of a global society and being able to tackle some of these issues," said Villagomez. While every tribal nation faces distinctive climate challenges, something all Indigenous communities in the U.S. have in common is being disproportionately impacted by the warming world.Historic tribal land loss plays a major part. A 2021 study published in the journal Science found that European colonization and expansion of North America is responsible for Indigenous peoples' relocation to lands now experiencing an increased exposure to climate hazards. The study's authors told Grist that when compared to historic territories, the present-day Indigenous lands are more vulnerable to climate hazards like excessive heat and reduced rainfall Indigenous peoples across the country are facing hazardous climate risks to their homes — forcing many to leave behind remaining ancestral lands.Decreasing sea ice and warming temperatures are increasing flood and erosion risk in Alaska, threatening to displace dozens of Native Alaskan communities. Several villages have started relocating in the face of that. Land subsidence, or sinking land, worsened by sea level rise, has submerged much of southeastern Louisiana's coastline — forcing Indigenous groups like the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw to leave or weather vanishing shores. Rising seas, erosion, increasing tsunami and flood risk have led some of the Quinault Nation community of Taholah, Washington to begin preparing to relocate to higher ground.
As search for victims ends, grim details emerge of deaths caused by Hurricane Ian - ABC News reported on Monday that authorities have concluded the major search for victims using cadaver dogs, while residents of Lee County and the city of Fort Myers were still sifting through the mud-covered rubble of their wrecked homes left behind by the storm surge that rose to as much as 18 feet of water. Many have lost everything, and, ABC News said, “residents are bracing for what will be months, if not years, of work” to remove debris and “fights with insurance companies” to try and pull their lives back together. As the details of what happened to both those who survived and those who died from the deadliest storm to strike Florida since the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, the criminal negligence of the capitalist ruling establishment is evident. The state and federal governments failed to prepare the public even as powerful hurricanes fueled by climate change have hit the United States repeatedly over the last two decades. While tens of billions have been spent on the US-NATO proxy war in Ukraine against Russia—not to mention the trillions spent on the wars in the Middle East and Africa since 2001—the American ruling establishment has done little or nothing to put in place structures and evacuation systems to prevent the kind of devastation wrought by a series of deadly storms, beginning with Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which killed more than 1,800 people. In a region of the US with a large percentage of retirees, who moved to Florida to get away from cold winters in the Northern states, many will not be able to remain in the area with no place to live. Brenda Palmer was living with her husband Ralph in a mobile home in Fort Myers when the hurricane hit and destroyed it. She told the Associated Press, “I’m 86 years old, and I’m homeless. It’s just crazy. I mean, never in my life did I dream that I wouldn’t have a home. But it’s gone.” The death toll from the hurricane will rise in the coming days as medical examiners’ offices have been overwhelmed with bodies requiring identification and autopsies to determine the causes of death. NBC News reported that the medical examiner for Charlotte County, Florida, requested the assistance of the Florida Emergency Mortuary Operations Response System to process more than 40 bodies in a facility designed to handle no more than six at a time. Most of the victims were 50 years of age and older who drowned when they could not escape the rising flood waters. The Lee County medical examiner reported that a 54-year-old man died when he attempted to climb out of a window and became trapped. Another resident of Lee County who was 73 years old “shot himself after seeing the damage due to the hurricane,” the medical examiner’s summary said. A 96-year-old man was found under a car in Charlotte County in high water. He was the oldest and among five Floridians aged 90 and older killed in the storm.
'Nothing's left': Hurricane Ian leaves emotional toll behind -- With her home gone and all her belongings trashed by Hurricane Ian, Alice Pujols wept as she picked through soggy clothes, toys and overturned furniture piled head-high outside a stranger’s house, looking to salvage something — anything — for her four children and herself. “I’m trying to make it to the next day,” she said. “That’s all I can do. It’s really depressing. It really is.” For those who lost everything to a natural disaster and even those spared, the anguish can be crushing to return home to find so much gone. Grief can run the gamut from frequent tears to utter despair. Two men in their 70s even took their own lives after viewing their losses, said the medical examiner in Lee County, where Ian first made landfall in southwestern Florida. The emotional toll in the days, weeks and months after a hurricane, flood or wildfire can be crippling. More pressing needs for food, shelter and clothing often take priority to seeking counseling, which is in short supply even in good times. “When someone’s in a state of trauma that so many are in, they don’t know where to begin,” Hurricane Ian hammered Florida with such ferocity that it wiped out whole neighborhoods, tossed boats onto highways, swept away beaches and swamped homes in roof-deep waters. With sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph), it was one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit southwest Florida. It later cut a watery and wind-battered swath across the Florida peninsula before turning out to sea to regain strength and pummel South Carolina. It killed more than 100 people, the majority of victims in Florida, making it the third-deadliest storm to hit the U.S. mainland this century. Even a week after it passed through, officials warned that more victims could yet be found as they continued to inspect the damage. The storm knocked out power to 2.6 million and caused billions of dollars in damage. Research has shown that between a third and half of those who survive a disaster develop some type of mental distress, Post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety rise along with substance abuse. Those with existing mental disorders are at greater risk of having those conditions exacerbated by the trauma.
Lee County works to clean up garbage, debris after Hurricane Ian -The efforts to clean up the debris and garbage from Hurricane Ian are ongoing in Lee and Collier counties.“We’ve collected 160,000 cubic yards of material from the streets. That’s the same as 25 football fields, three-feet high,” Doug Whitehead, Director of Lee County Solid Waste, said in a video posted to YouTube on Monday. “In addition, together we’ve collected five times as much debris as we did during Hurricane Irma in the same amount of time.”Collier County has removed 130,100 cubic yards of debris, according to Evelyn Longa, the public information officer for Collier County Public Utilities. Longa said that's 2,718 loads from 142 hauling units. Whitehead also reminded people to put their debris in two separate piles: one for yard waster and one for everything else (furniture, dry wall, insulation, etc.). He also said not to put debris or yard waste near mailboxes or fire hydrants.
Boats of all kinds litter neighborhoods in wake of Ian - Rick Hartmann spent Sunday shoring up Fair Winds, a white Catalina 385 with blue trim and busted rigging. The 38-foot sailboat is his business, but like thousands of boats all over Southwest Florida, Fair Winds is not where it was the day before Hurricane Ian slammed into the coast. "It was a quarter-mile that way," Hartmann said, pointing toward the devastated Town of Fort Myers Beach. "Now it's here and I don't know who is going to pull it out of here and when." Hartmann is not alone as thousands of boats are scattered across the Fort Myers area like colored leaves during a New England fall. They're in trees, on roofs, across roads, in ditches and houses, everywhere but on the water or safely docked. Of the more than 1 million registered vessels in the Sunshine State, Lee County has more than 50,000 registered vessels, behind only Miami-Dade and Pinellas counties, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Kenneth Farmer, owner of Southwest Florida Marine Salvage and Boat Works, said there is a common pattern in many neighborhoods. "A lot of the boats that have floated across the yard, they need to look across the canal," Farmer said of owners looking for their boats. "The boats weren’t tied down properly, and they floated through the yard and into people’s front yards." Farmer said most boat owners don't have the tools, skills or ability to salvage a larger boat on their own. "The work we do is dangerous and people need to understand that," Farmer said. "I’ve seen some carnage, and the water is not safe to be in. People do not need to get in this nasty water right now." Fair Winds is relatively far from the water, across the street from Pincher's Seafood and nestled against the pedestrian rail along San Carlos Boulevard. The mast is broken, the spars are damaged, the foresail is twisted and torn. The boat is not his home; but it is his business, so instead of taking locals and tourists on relaxing sunset cruises, Hartmann is waiting for his insurance company to send an inspector. "This boat was pristine," he said while climbing down a 6-foot ladder resting against the port rail. "I'm out of business. The marina is destroyed. I'm just going to have to go day-by-day and see what happens."Not only are boats scattered across the landscape, many docks are destroyed — so there's no where to store the boats when they're not in use. Even if his boat was completely functional and safe, Hartmann has nowhere to put it.
Hurricane Ian traumatized Floridians. It also erased their nest eggs. - Hurricane Ian has displaced thousands of Floridians’ whose homes are now uninhabitable. The storm took their safety nets with it, too. As Florida tallies the immediate tab from its deadliest hurricane in decades, the destruction it wreaked on homes will erase retirees’ nest eggs and families’ primary way of passing along wealth to new generations. That exposed the dangers of American dependence on housing as most people’s financial backstop and lifeline. “The impacts of Hurricane Ian have stretched far and wide, especially to Southwest Florida seniors who’ve invested most of their livelihoods in properties across my district,” Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who represents Lee County, said in an emailed statement. “In addition to the tremendous economic pressures induced by soaring inflation, this storm contributes additional pain to many on fixed incomes.” “This is an enormous wealth shock,” It’s a problem with no easy policy solutions. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the government-controlled companies behind about half of the $12 trillion residential mortgage market, has begun assessing the risks that climate change poses to the mortgage and housing market. But it has historically allowed the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood insurance program to take the lead in protecting borrowers against flood damage — though independent analyses show that FEMA’s flood maps underestimate how many homes face flood danger. Home ownership is the primary way most Americans build wealth. For decades, federal policy has placed a priority on making more Americans homeowners, seeing it as the clearest way to achieve long-lasting financial security and generational prosperity. But climate change is jeopardizing all that. The risks Ian revealed are most pressing for retirees. People over 65 years old make up 29 percent of the population in Lee County, Fla. — ground zero for Ian damage — according to Census data. Among midsize cities, business research firm AdvisorSmith found that the Lee County communities of Cape Coral and Fort Myers experienced the sixth- and seventh-greatest increases nationally in the numbers of people older than 65 years in 2019. Those populations have grown even more since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Many of the Fort Myers and Cape Coral neighborhoods that Ian battered are middle-income, blue-collar areas, not at all like the multimillion-dollar mansions just down the coast in Naples, They’re also hotbeds for retirees who had “their life savings wrapped up in real estate” and now live on a fixed income, he added. “It’s an important asset — obviously not one that’s replaceable, unless you’re part of the wealthy class,” Retirees whose homes were destroyed also lost an important part of their wealth planning, . The market for reverse mortgages, which allow a person with a fully paid-off home to borrow against the house in exchange for cash, is “very strong” in Cape Coral, he said. But without that real estate asset, there’s no way to tap into that equity for everyday living.
Older People Hit By Hurricane Ian Face an Uncertain Future - The New York Times— More than two decades ago, Jane and Del Compton stumbled upon Fort Myers while on vacation in southwest Florida. This was where they would retire, they decided on the spot, in a place where they could grow old in peace and sunshine. They bought a double lot with a mobile home and a few small luxuries: a fan with a remote and his-and-hers televisions so she could follow her soap operas and he could watch cowboy shows. But Hurricane Ian ravaged their piece of paradise, soaking the photos from four decades of marriage, destroying their car and leaving them without a place to live. They had no homeowner’s insurance; their policy was canceled in June because of the age of their home, a 1978 model. Now the Comptons — she at 77, he at 81 — are resigned to abandoning their retirement dream. They will return to their native Louisville, Ky., in the coming weeks to stay with their daughter and figure out their next steps, though they are loath to leave their beloved church community and friends. Spending their twilight years in Florida seems suddenly out of reach.“We have talked about it, we have argued about it, we have screamed about it, we have cried about it,” said Ms. Compton, sitting outside the church where the couple has stayed with the one box of sentimental treasures they managed to salvage. “Our bubble has been burst.”Official tallies of deaths related to the storm suggest that older Americans died in disproportionate numbers. Ages or approximate ages have been released for 96 of the hurricane’s 126 victims in Florida and North Carolina. At least 70 people who died were 60 or older. Many victims were found dead at their homes. But Ian not only killed more older people; it also created uniquely wrenching situations for those who survived.Even if they can afford to rebuild, those people may not have the time or energy required for such a difficult task and the prospect oftighter building codes might make that more expensive than ever. Many, like the Comptons, live on fixed incomes, lack flood insurance or purchased their homes before the housing boom of the last decade, when the region was far more affordable. Recapturing their paradise may not be possible — a cruel and abrupt blow.
Hurricane Ian is 15th billion-dollar disaster in U.S. this year - Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Florida late last month and ravaged the area as it pushed north to the Carolinas, is the latest of 15 billion-dollar climate and weather disasters logged in the U.S. this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The devastating storm was among six new costly disasters recorded since June of this year, according to a report from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The new count makes 2022 the country’s eighth consecutive year experiencing 10 or more climate and weather disasters costing more than $1 billion each. Hurricane Ian was joined on the latest list by Hurricane Fiona, which hit Puerto Rico in mid-September, and two other severe storm events this summer. Wildfires in the West and July flooding in Kentucky and in Missouri also made the list. The disaster losses total around $29.3 billion, according to NOAA — without accounting for the damages from Ian, Fiona and the Western wildfires, which have not yet been calculated. The NOAA report estimates the total cost may approach $100 billion as the year wears on and as damages are assessed.
Hurricane Ian: Flooding on St. Johns River in Florida could continue through Thanksgiving — Hundreds of homes in central Florida are still submerged in floodwater as the St. Johns – a notoriously lazy river on the east side of the peninsula – lethargically drains the historic rainfall that Hurricane Ian dropped nearly two weeks ago. The river is going to spend at least the next week at a higher level than it’s been in nearly 60 years, forecasts show, and the National Weather Service warns that water could stay above flood stage through Thanksgiving. In Seminole County northeast of Orlando, upwards of 400 homes are “inaccessible” due to flooding, according to county planning manager Steven Lerner. The city of Geneva, which is tucked into a bend in the river and between two lakes, is particularly inundated. Vehicles and homes submerged in water in a flooded neighborhood following Hurricane Ian in Orlando, Florida, on September 30, 2022. Lack of flood insurance in hard-hit Central Florida leaves families struggling after Hurricane Ian “This area historically floods, and many residents stick it out” in their homes, Lerner told CNN in a phone interview. Lerner was not sure how many residents may have already left because of the flooding. The St. Johns River begins southeast of Orlando and flows north through dozens of cities on the east side of the Florida Peninsula before it drains into the Atlantic Ocean in Jacksonville. The river flows across 300 miles, yet only drops around 30 feet – making this river one of the slowest in the world, according to Scott Kelly, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Melbourne. “It is a very, very lazy river,” Kelly told CNN. “Very slow moving.” Kelly suspects the flooding could go on “perhaps for a couple of months,” and officials expect this slow-moving disaster to creep north over the next few weeks. The water in Geneva “will eventually move to the Astor area,” Lerner said. “It’s a very slow trickle process.” Astor is an unincorporated community in Lake County and is on the west side of the river, just south of Lake George. Lerner said there is usually a two-week delay for water to flow from Geneva to Astor; so they should see the water level rise soon. But already in DeLand – between Geneva and Astor – drone imagery shows homes and businesses inundated by dark brown water that has pushed beyond the river’s banks. “Geneva … DeLand and Astor have all seen record flooding with this event,” Kelly told CNN. “So this is not something anyone has seen at least in the last 70 years.” Hurricane Ian dumped as much as 20 inches of rain on this part of Florida nearly two weeks ago – a tremendous amount of rain that is becoming more common as the planet warms. Scientists have shown that warmer air can hold more moisture, pushing hurricanes to produce harder rainfall. The National Weather Service expects more rain in the region over the next few days as a cold front pushes through Florida. “It’s going to probably freak people out because it’s going to start raining again,” Kelly said. “It will be more spotty showers and should not have a significant impact on the river level. Now, forecasters are mostly concerned about preparing people for weeks of flooding. “We’re not sure that people understand fully that this river is not going to go down very quickly,” said Kelly. “And so, yes, it’s crested in most places but it’s going to stay near or at that crest for many days and we don’t think people are prepared mentally for that.”
‘We have no dry land left’: impact of Pakistan floods to be felt for years - Muhammad Naeem Khoso lost thousands acres of crops when the torrential downpours that devastated Pakistan in July and August turned his land in Jaffarabad into a lake.“I had invested 40 million rupees (£163,042) into different crops, mostly rice,” he said. “I lost almost everything. The floods have ruined and washed away everything.”Khoso said he had never seen so much rain in his life, and that water was coming from everywhere. Now, he added, “I fear for a food crisis in Balochistan and beyond.”Across the province crops, homes and livelihoods were washed away by flood waters. Agriculture is the primary source of income for many in the districts of Jaffarabad, Sohbatpur, Nasirabad and Jhal Magsi yet 70% of crops have been destroyed in the floods.Nationwide, at least 4m acres of crops have been destroyed, part of the economic devastation estimated by the Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, at $30bn-$35bn (£27bn-£31.6bn), and while the heavy rainfall which began in July has stopped, many areas in Balochistan and Sindh provinces remain flooded. Children play and swim in fields where green crops of rice should have been swaying in the air, ready for harvest.The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has warned the effects of the floods will be felt for years to come with the country “on the verge of a public health disaster”, and the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a report last week that it expected increased food insecurity.In Sohbatpur district in Balochistan, Mohammed Ali said 500 acres of crops had been washed away. “I lost all my investment of the season but for me more worrying is the new season,” he said. “It is October now and I can’t grow wheat as we have no dry land left. The water is receding in a very slow phase and it seems we can’t grow wheat and other crops.”In the Larkana district of neighbouring Sindh province, Sajid Ali, said more than 70% of his crops were ruined. “People have lost their crops and some have also lost their seeds of wheat, which they had kept for new seasons in their storerooms and factories,” he said.“The land is still under water and we can’t grow anything here for a long while.”Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s climate change minister, said half of the country’s breadbasket had been wiped out in the floods. “Clearly, there will be shocks to the food security of the country. We are not sure how the sowing season will really take place with this much water or damp soil,” she told the Guardian.According to the Atlantic Council the total damage to agriculture amounts to $3.18bn, out of which $1.63bn is from Sindh and $1.04bn from Balochistan. Livestock losses stand at $291m, out of which $125m is from Balochistan and $109m from Sindh.“It will have immediate and medium-term impacts at least on people’s lives,” Rehman said. “We think it’s very important to be seeking food, assistance, food aid and as well as working on pipelining climate-resilient agriculture but that’s a fairly long term.”
Worst floods on record hit Nigeria - over 1.4 million people affected and about 500 dead - Nigeria is experiencing its worst floods on record this rainy season, with more than 1.4 million people affected and 800 000 displaced. 27 out of the 36 states in the country are experiencing flooding, with Kogi the worst affected. According to the permanent secretary of Nigeria’s ministry of humanitarian affairs and disaster management, Nasir Sani-Gwarzo, the floods affected vast swathes of the country this season, sparking fears they could worsen food insecurity and inflation. About 500 people have lost their lives and 1 546 were injured, Sani-Gwarzo said in a statement. Additionally, more than 1.4 million were affected and 790 254 displaced. The floods damaged 44 900 houses and destroyed 45 249, as of October 9, 2022. As much as 70 566 ha (174 372 acres) of farmland and crops were destroyed and 76 168 ha (188 215 acres) were damaged. The secretary said this high level of damage was caused, in part, because people violated regional planning rules and constructed homes and buildings near waterways. While the rainy season usually begins around June, most deaths and displacements started around August and September, National Emergency Management Agency spokesman Manzo Ezekiel said. More rains and floods are expected before the season ends in December.
Widespread heavy rain and flooding impacting Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales, Australia - (videos) Severe Weather Warnings are in place for northern Tasmania, central and northern Victoria and southern inland New South Wales as widespread heavy rain, flash flooding, and damaging winds continue on Thursday, October 13, 2022. Widespread rain, combined with wet or already flooded catchments will lead to renewed river and creek rises, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warns. A number of Flood Warnings have already been issued, and Flood Watches are in place as rivers begin to respond to rainfall.1 There is heightened concern for communities across northern Tasmania with 24-hr rainfall forecasts in excess of 300 mm (11.8 inches) possible on October 13. Widespread Moderate to Major Flooding is expected across Victoria and Tasmania. In NSW, rain on Friday may cause renewed river rises in parts of the central west and southwest, however, rainfall totals will not be as high in other areas of NSW. Weather warnings as of 10.00 LT on October 13:
- Tasmania – heavy rain with 6-hourly totals of 40 to 60 mm (1.5 – 2.4 inches) across northern Tasmania, increasing to intense rain with 6-hourly totals to 100 mm (4 inches), particularly across the Western Tiers. There are warnings in place for damaging winds and damaging surf conditions.
- Victoria – heavy rain with 6-hourly totals of 30 to 50 mm (1.2 – 2 inches), with damaging winds for elevated terrain.
- New South Wales – heavy rain with 6-hourly totals of 30 to 50 mm (1.2 – 2 inches) extending across southern NSW, with damaging winds for Alpine areas.
Rain will ease to showers for western Victoria and western NSW on Thursday night, and then eases into Friday morning for the rest of Victoria and Tasmania, although moderate to heavy falls are still likely for some areas. Showers will move over eastern NSW from Friday morning and then finally move offshore into the afternoon and evening. Communities, in particular those living on or near any rivers, creeks and streams or in low-lying areas, especially in northern Victoria, Tasmania and the Riverina of NSW are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings via the Bureau’s website and BOM Weather app and follow the advice of emergency services.
Evacuation orders issued for parts of Narrandera South as moderate flooding threatens to close roads - Residents in parts of Narrandera South have been ordered to evacuate before 8pm tonight as moderate flooding threatens to close roads and escape routes. The main flood peak passed through Wagga Wagga on Thursday and is now heading down the Murrumbidgee River. The Bureau of Meteorology says it may reach around 8 metres at Narrandera on Sunday with moderate flooding. Meanwhile, major flooding in Forbes has fallen to moderate levels, but evacuation orders remain in place with large parts of the CBD still inundated and aircraft dropping supplies to properties isolated by floodwaters. Six evacuation orders are in place, affecting about 500 residents of the central-west NSW town, but hundreds chose not to leave yesterday as the Lachlan River rose. Diversions are in place for three major roads that have been cut off by floodwaters in and around Forbes. Sheriff Street (Newell Highway) was closed in both directions between Cross Street and Dowling Street this morning. Lachlan Valley Way, west of Forbes, and The Escort Way, east of Forbes, remain closed due to floodwaters, although local and rural roads remain open to allow access for motorists driving in and out of Forbes. Across NSW, the State Emergency Service (SES) has received 213 calls for help and carried out seven flood rescues in the past 24 hours — the majority in the south and west. "Across the whole region – the Lachlan, Murrumbidgee and Murray (river systems) – we've had just under 100 calls for assistance and five flood rescues," spokesman Scott McLennan said. The flood rescues included people trapped in cars, animal rescues and medical evacuations. The Bureau of Meteorology said the Lachlan River at Forbes peaked at 10.56 metres on Friday night. The peak is now approaching Cottons Weir, which is already experiencing major flooding. There is also major flooding at Jemalong. Aircraft were tasked by the SES to re-supply isolated properties and carry out welfare checks. "Because floodwater is still high and because a number of properties are still cut off, it does actually require people to remain vigilant in those areas," Mr McLennan said.
Man dies in Victorian floods as floodwaters moves south in Tasmania and NSW - At Rochester a 71-year-old man was found dead in floodwaters where the Campaspe River hit major flood levels. He was found in the backyard of his property which was blocked by floodwaters. It is the first death recorded during the current flood crisis. Aerial footage from Saturday afternoon showed Rochester's township inundated, with waters rising above floorboard level. Residents in the northern Victorian communities of Shepparton and Echuca have been ordered to evacuate due to rising floodwaters. Residents in parts of Shepparton affected by the warning were urged to head to a relief centre at the Shepparton Showgrounds. As many as 344 roads have been closed due to flooding in Victoria. In Echuca, residents were urged to check the latest warnings for flooded roads before heading to Bendigo. Emergency crews have warned the Goulburn River and Campaspe River are reaching major flood levels and could affect thousands of properties this weekend. Campaspe Shire Council has warned Echuca residents that anyone who chooses to stay needs to be prepared to be isolated. People may not be able to return to their homes for up to 10 days. The SES has warned people in Shepparton that although the peak is not expected for a few days, people should not wait to leave. SES crews have carried out more than 400 water rescues across the state. Above-the-floorboards flooding has been recorded in 466 homes across the state, with around 500 properties now isolated by floodwaters, and 344 roads closed. Relief centres have been set up in 14 locations, along with 55 sandbag collection points. In the state's north-west, an evacuation order was issued for Charlton as the Avoca River was rising on Saturday afternoon. The river is expected to peak on Saturday night with major flooding expected to potentially last for up to five days. More than 30 people had already arrived at the relief centre at nearby Wycheproof, while others moved to the opposite side of town, ahead of the anticipated flood peak. Further west, the Richardson River at Donald was expected to reach levels similar to the 2010 floods. The Wimmera River will also swell in the next couple of days, causing low-end major flooding at Horsham. In the state's north-east, residents in parts of Wangaratta were told to evacuate as flooding threatened properties on Saturday. Emergency authorities doorknocked properties within the Parfitt Road Levee System, which were threatened by major flooding from the Ovens River. The river reached major flood levels and is likely to remain above major flood level for several days.
Hurricane “Julia” makes landfall in Nicaragua - Hurricane “Julia” made landfall along the coast near Laguna de Perlas in Nicaragua at 07:15 UTC on October 9, 2022. The system had maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph), making it a Category 1 hurricane. Julia continued moving westward after making landfall and was still a hurricane – with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) – at 12:00 UTC.1 At the time, its center was located about 100 km (60 miles) WNW of Bluefields, Nicaragua and 190 km (115 miles) E of Managua, Nicaragua. The storm had a minimum central pressure of 989 hPa and was moving west at 26 km/h (16 mph). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a slight turn to the west-northwest on Monday, October 10. Hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 55 km (35 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 185 km (115 miles). hurricane julia 13z october 9 2022 bg Hurricane “Julia” at 13:00 UTC on October 9, 2022. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving across Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. The system is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night.
Sinking homes, damaged roads: How a New Orleans community struggles against subsidence - While land is subsiding throughout the city, industry water use has exacerbated the problem in one predominantly Black and Vietnamese area. – In the early 1990s, James Wright lost his family home in the 9th Ward neighborhood when a new school was built on his block.“They basically took our houses because they gave us very little money for them,” he said. “And most of the people were old Black people who owned their homes.” After he lost his property on Lamanche Street, Wright bought a house from his brother in the New Orleans East neighborhood in 1992. But he’s once again losing ground. This time quite literally.The ground has been sinking all across New Orleans as the Mississippi River soil that created the city dries out and compacts – but few places are as bad as in a section of New Orleans East known as Village de L’Est, a predominantly Black and Vietnamese community. A few years ago, Wright’s boat, stored in his backyard, was nearly swallowed by the ground.“I can tell the house is sinking. You see how the driveway is falling apart?” he said, pointing to cracked and slanted cement.A study conducted in 2016 by NASA identified groundwater use from a nearby, now-shuttered power plant as the primary cause for the sinking.Entergy New Orleans, which owns the plant, denies responsibility for the subsidence. Recently it built a new power plant that relies on surface water, not groundwater. But residents are still left with sinking homes, crumbling foundations – and nowhere to turn for help. Members of the New Orleans City Council, which regulates Entergy, who were contacted for this story did not respond to a request for comments. Dawn Hebert, president of the East New Orleans Neighborhood Advisory Commission, said it’s expensive for residents to try to fix that damage on their own, paying for dirt and other necessary fixes caused by the subsidence. “It’s just unfortunate,” she said, “that companies don’t want to take responsibility for what they caused.” Before it shut down in 2015, Entergy’s Michoud power plant was the top groundwater user in New Orleans, accounting for up to 11 million gallons of groundwater per day, or 90% of all groundwater withdrawn in Orleans Parish, according to US Geological Survey data.When groundwater is over pumped from underground aquifers, it leaves a void in the aquifer, sometimes causing the land above to collapse. More than 80% of subsidence nationwide is caused by the overpumping of groundwater, according to the US Geological Survey. In Village de L’Est , the ground has been sinking at a rate of up to 1.5 inches per year— more than five times the average subsidence rate across New Orleans, according to the NASA study. Village de L’Est residents first called attention to Entergy’s groundwater use and the subsidence NASA noted, in 2016. Recently, the climate-vulnerable community tried to block Entergy’s new gas-fired power plant, in part because of its contribution to global heating. Still, the facility was approved by the New Orleans City Council, despite evidence paid actors were used to feign local support.
Massive landslide hits Venezuela, leaving at least 30 people dead and 54 missing - (video) A massive landslide hit the town of Las Tejerías, Venezuela on October 9, 2022, leaving at least 30 people dead and 54 others missing. The town is loaded 87 km (54 miles) SW of Caracas. This is one of Venezuela’s biggest landslides in decades. According to officials, the landslide hit the central area of the town after five streams overflowed on October 9. “There are still people walled in,” Vice President Delcy Rodríguez told state-owned Venezolana de Televisión. “We are trying to rescue them, to rescue them alive.” Major Gen. Carlos Pérez Ampueda, the vice minister for risk management and civil protection, said that several people were reported missing in the El Béisbol and La Agotada neighborhoods in the north of the town. Dozens of homes were damaged by the landslide.1 Rescuers were carrying out search operations with trained dogs and drones, Pérez Ampueda said. Crews of workers and heavy machinery removed debris to clear roads and restore electricity and water services. “The images appear to show large amounts of mud and debris in the town, including a considerable volume of wood. The debris seems to be predominantly fine-grained,” landslides expert Dr. Dave Petley said.2 “There are also a small number of videos online, captured during the event, which mostly seem to show fast moving, sediment-rich flows.” “It is quite unclear at the moment as to the sequence of events at Las Tejerías. Particularly pertinent here might be the large channel that flows southwards through the town to join the main channel, draining the hills to the north,” Petley said. “A reasonable first-order hypothesis for this disaster may be that it was caused by mudflows traveling down one or more of these channels, triggered by heavy rainfall in the hills to the north. These events could have resulted simply from the heavy rainfall, from multiple landslides in the catchment that have transformed into channelized mudflows, or from a valley-blocking landslide in one or more channels, that breached to create a large flow. At the moment this is purely speculation.”
Glacial flood in Grímsvötn, Aviation Color Code raised to Yellow, Iceland - A new glacial flood started at Grímsvötn, a subglacial volcano under Vatnajökull, Iceland, on October 10, 2022, prompting authorities to raise the Aviation Color Code to Yellow and announce the State of Uncertainty. Glacial flooding can trigger subglacial eruptions, which have been known to happen at Grímsvötn. This is the most active volcano in Iceland with eruption intervals every 5 to 10 years. The last took place in 2011 and was quite large and powerful. The ice sheet has receded by almost 3 m (10 feet) several days before the flood started and by 7 m (23 feet) on October 12, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reports.1 If the Grímsvötn subglacial lake drains completely, the ice shelf can likely sink by some 10 – 15 m (33 – 50 feet) in total. The flow is currently at 300 m3/s so IMO predicts that the maximum flow out of the lakes will be late Thursday, October 13 or Friday.
Pyroclastic flows and lava overflow at Stromboli volcano, Italy - (video) Pyroclastic flows and lava overflow were observed on the Sciara del Fuoco, Stromboli volcano on October 9, 2022. The first pyroclastic flow, reported at 07:23 UTC, quickly reached the coast and was followed by several smaller ones.1 In addition, INGV-OE monitoring networks observed well-fed lava flow reaching all the way to the coast. From the seismic point of view, the activity increased at 06:24 UTC.
Dozens of moai statues damaged in wildfires, some of them irreparable, Easter Island - (video) Two wildfires broke out near the Rano Raraku volcanic crater in Easter Island, Chile last week, spreading to about 60 ha (150 acres) before they were brought under control. The flames entered the moai quarry where 386 iconic statues are located, causing irreparable damage to about 80 of them. According to the Chilean National Monuments Council statement issued on October 7, it was unknown how many of the famous 386 moai statues located near Rano Raraku were damaged in the fire. However, information received on October 8 and 9 indicates that up to 80 of them could be damaged. Some news outlets still repeat false information that the fires were caused by the volcanic eruption at Rano Raraku, but the mayor of Easter Island – Pedro Edmunds said several days ago that they arose from the burning of pastureland, adding that this is a common problem that has been repeated in recent times. The emergency was more severe in this case because the flames entered the Rano Raraku moai quarry and burned the material of dozens of statues. “The damage caused by the fire can’t be undone,” said Edmunds.1 “What the fire does is to burn the stone, and instead of breaking, it cracks, like crocodile skin, and with time it crumbles, that is to say, what happened is that the process in which the stone will turn into sand was accelerated and that is irrecoverable,” he said.“[The damage] is irreparable and with consequences bigger than what the eyes can see,” Ariki Tepano of the Ma’u Henua community said.2 Local media quoted Ninoska Huki, the local head of the forestry authority Conaf, as saying that “there was no capability to combat the fire because we still don’t have a Conaf brigade.” Edmunds detailed that the damages figure is still preliminary and informed that the experts initiated a study in the field to determine the actual caliber of the deterioration.
M3.9 and M1.5 solar flares erupt from AR 3112 - (video) An impulsive M3.9 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3112 (Beta) at 08:42 UTC. The flare started at 08:36 and ended at 08:46 UTC. It was followed by M1.5 at 10:52 UTC from the same region. The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 967 km/s), indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with a flare event. SDO AIA 304 imagery confirms this. While the analysis of this event is still in progress as we wait for more LASCO C2 and C3 imagery to arrive, it’s possible there could be at least a part of the CME heading toward us. A Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 237 km/s) was associated with the M1.5 event, too.
Carbon Capture Developer Calls Inflation Reduction Act ‘Game Changer’ for Nebraska Project - Colorado-based Carbon America has inked a deal for a project to capture and store about 175,000 tons/year of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the Bridgeport Ethanol LLC production facility in Nebraska. The figure is equivalent to 95% of total emissions from the facility’s fermentation process, and would have the annual impact of taking 38,043 passenger vehicles off the road, according to Carbon America CEO Brent Lewis. President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), combined with the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit, played a crucial role in making the project economically viable, Lewis told NGI. The IRA expanded the Internal Revenue Service 45Q tax credit for permanent sequestration of carbon dioxide from $50 to $85/ton, and is now applicable to projects starting construction before 2033, versus 2025 previously. The LCFS program, meanwhile, allows producers of decarbonized ethanol to sell the fuel into the California market at a premium. LCFS credit prices have fallen dramatically over the last year or so. As a result, “the additional value now associated with 45Q has really helped replace a lot of the value that had been lost in our economic models associated with the LCFS price,” Lewis said. He explained that Carbon America and the Bridgeport plant have a deal in place where the revenue streams from the two incentives will be shared. Carbon America expects the first CO2 injection at the Bridgeport project to occur by the end of 2024.
The climate law — and its billions — changed everything - The climate world is suddenly rolling in dough. Following decades of failed attempts to enact sweeping climate change legislation, Democrats eked out a bill this summer that funnels nearly $370 billion toward climate and renewable energy programs. The huge new cash flow and the fine print of the law behind it are overhauling how climate policy works. “Holy shit, this is a ton of cash — all about building a clean energy economy. And we’ve never done this,” said Sam Ricketts, co-founder of Evergreen Action and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. The new climate law is already changing everything from how consumers buy cars and how green groups are organizing to which policy experts are suddenly in high demand on Capitol Hill and K Street. And nearly two months after President Joe Biden signed the climate bill into law, policy wonks, businesses, lawmakers, environmentalists, administration officials and others are still trying to make sense of how it’s all going to work. “The country hasn’t embarked on this level of industrial transformation since the New Deal,” Ricketts said. “This is going to be a thing we are all going to be figuring out together. … I mean, the CEO of the energy storage company, the line worker at [International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers] in Missouri, the environmental justice advocate in Houston and [a policy advocate] in Washington, D.C.” For comparison, the behemoth stimulus package enacted in 2009 spent about $90 billion on renewable energy and energy efficiency programs, an amount the Obama administration heralded at the time as “the largest single investment in clean energy in history.” Gina McCarthy, just before she stepped down as Biden’s climate adviser, joked last month that she had “grown into” being able to talk about climate funding in billions, rather than millions. “It was a hard journey for me,” she said. When she led the EPA during the Obama administration, she added, the agency’s entire annual budget was a little over $8 billion. And the $370 billion figure included in the legislation Democrats have dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act is just part of the money being invested to boost renewable energy and combat climate change. “That’s just the tip of the iceberg,” said Paul Bledsoe, a climate policy expert and strategic adviser for the Progressive Policy Institute. Bledsoe estimates the combined government climate and clean energy spending from the Inflation Reduction Act — along with recently passed laws to fund technology manufacturing and infrastructure — will be about $514 billion. That will encourage “trillions of dollars of investment over the next few decades, probably tens of trillions of dollars of private sector investment,” he said.
Wall Street bankers told they can set own CO2 terms after spat -The world's biggest climate-finance alliance has sought to dismiss reports that a number of Wall Street banks are threatening to leave, as it races to bring its house in order in the run-up to next month's COP27 climate summit. In a statement to Bloomberg News on Saturday, a spokesperson for the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero said the group has "received no indication from any of our members that they intend to leave." GFANZ, which brings together over 500 finance firms managing more than $135 trillion of assets, has faced possible defections from firms including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, according to people familiar with the process. The heavyweights were unhappy with the potential addition of binding restrictions on fossil finance, the people said. Tensions soared after a United Nations-backed group, Race to Zero, earlier this year proposed such terms as a necessary condition for net-zero claims to be credible. That language was subsequently softened, and in its statement on Saturday, GFANZ said each suballiance of the group is "subject only to their own governance structures," essentially giving them the freedom to ignore such proposals. Mark Carney, GFANZ co-chair, has already publicly admonished Race to Zero for going "too far." Jakob Thomae, an advisory board member of GFANZ, says he expects parts of GFANZ will eventually sever ties with Race to Zero and seek a more tailored decarbonization methodology to appease members. But there are already concerns being raised in some corners that the ostensible sidelining of science represents a worrying development. Al Gore, the former U.S. vice president turned climate activist, last month warned that investors are growing increasingly impatient with evidence of potential "greenwashing" amid signs that net-zero pledges made by some members of the financial industry aren't credible.
Banks try quiet quitting on net zero -For some bankers, net zero is like a new year's resolution — a pledge one makes and often breaks before a year has passed.Several of the largest banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, headed into the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) as members of the world's biggest zero-carbon finance club. Their membership in the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a group of roughly 500 financial sector entities, publicly committed their banks to reach net-zero carbon emissions by midcentury.By September they were among a faction ready to quit, according to sources familiar with the matter. JPMorgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley declined to comment.A year on from COP26, some big banks seem worried they jumped on the bandwagon too soon, especially as oil and gas companies have experienced a market resurgence. What makes the prospect of net zero — or at least the vow to come up with near-term benchmarks toward that goal — such an anxiety-provoking proposition? Read more: World's Big Polluters Talk Up Net-Zero With Little to ShowThe revived fortunes of fossil fuels, especially coal, may explain some of the weakened resolve for decarbonization. Global bank lending to fossil fuel companies is up 15%, to over $300 billion, in the first nine months of this year, from the same period in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.This is Wall Street just doing its job: making money. Banks earned more than $1 billion in revenue from fossil lending during the first three quarters, in line with 2021. Why quit business with a booming sector over a distant climate goal?Harald Walkate, the former head of environmental, social, and governance investing at Natixis Investment Managers and now a sustainable finance consultant, says some banks may feel their hands are tied as their fiduciary duty requires them to maximize financial value for clients."While from an ethical or ideological perspective many people might not like the idea of investing in fossil fuels, it's certainly not illegal," he says. "And it may in fact be very good business for some time to come."
World's Big Polluters Talk Up Net-Zero With Little to Show - "Net zero targets “are often not supported by strategies to deliver them,” according to Climate Action 100+. "When it comes to net-zero, a lot of companies are more talk than action.That’s the conclusion of a new report from Climate Action 100+, an investor alliance with combined assets of more than $68 trillion, which shows that promises by major corporate emitters to achieve net-zero targets are “not matched by the development and implementation of credible decarbonization strategies.”The analysis, which looked at 159 companies with the largest carbon footprints, showed that 75% have now committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 or sooner across all or some of their emissions footprint, up from 69% in March; over a third of the companies have set long-term targets aligned with the Paris agreement target of 1.5C.But in most cases, there’s a lack of follow-through. The report found that while 82% of focus companies have set medium-term targets, only 20% of those targets cover all material scopes of emissions and are aligned with 1.5C. And though 53% of companies have a decarbonization strategy, only 19% quantify key elements of their plans as they relate to the major sources of their emissions, including Scope 3, which refers to a company’s entire value chain."
BlackRock, Citi CEOs won't be returning to key climate talks - The biggest climate event of the calendar looks set to draw far fewer chief executives than it did just a year ago. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink won't be at the COP27 summit in Egypt next month and will instead attend a meeting of the firm's board of directors, according to people familiar with his plans. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser will also stay away, as will Bill Winters of Standard Chartered, spokespeople for the banks said. All three made a point of attending in 2021. They lead a long list of top-level executives giving this year's summit a lower priority, according to responses gathered by Bloomberg News based on current plans. BlackRock and others will instead be sending delegations consisting of lower-tier representatives, according to spokespeople for the firms. Standard Chartered will send its chief sustainability officer, Marisa Drew. BlackRock, which has yet to settle on who will be going, said it "looks forward to having a meaningful, senior presence at COP27 to engage with key stakeholders on one of the biggest themes for our clients," in an emailed statement. Fink was the star appearance last year as the heavyweights of big finance made their way to COP26 in Scotland to declare their commitment to slashing emissions. Former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney had predicted that sustainable finance would make the leap "to the C-suite" and, as if to prove him right, Fink made a big impression at COP26, donning a polka-dot tie and brown hiking boots as he discussed the dangers of greenwashing.
Nations Agree to Curb Emissions From Flying by 2050 - After almost a decade of talks, the nations of the world committed Friday to drastically lower emissions of planet-warming gases from the world’s airplanes by 2050, a milestone in efforts to ease the climate effects of a fast-growing sector. The target to reach “net zero” emissions — a point in which air travel is no longer pumping any additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere — would require the aviation industry to significantly step up its climate efforts. Previously, companies had relied on offsetting aviation’s emissions growth through tree-planting programs or through yet-to-be-proven technology to pull carbon dioxide out of the air. But to reach net zero, companies and governments would need to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in increasingly efficient planes and cleaner fuels to sharply reduce emissions from air travel itself. And even those investments are unlikely to be enough, compelling countries and companies to adopt policies to curb flying itself, by scrapping fuel subsidies or halting airport expansion plans, for example, or ending frequent flier programs. That puts the onus on the world’s richest countries, which account for the bulk of global air travel. The richest 20 percent of people worldwide take 80 percent of the flights, according to estimates by the International Council on Clean Transportation, a nonprofit think tank. The top 2 percent of frequent fliers take about 40 percent of the flights. “To build room for poorer countries to grow their aviation sectors, richer countries will need to peak emissions even faster,” said Dan Rutherford, director of the think tank’s aviation and marine programs. Emissions from global commercial aviation made up about 3 percent of global emissions in 2019, and had surged more than 30 percent over the previous decade before the coronavirus pandemic hit and traffic slumped. But air travel has come back with a vengeance, making action to address rising emissions imperative. The aviation industry has been slow to address its emissions, which aren’t covered by the Paris accord, the 2015 agreement among the nations of the world to fight climate change. Instead, a United Nations-like body called the International Civil Aviation Organization has overseen the climate talks. Those talks quickly became a microcosm of the politics involved in global climate negotiations, with less wealthy nations arguing that they should not face the same restrictions as richer nations. India and China, where air travel is surging, argued at the talks in Montreal this week that their air carriers would require until 2060 or 2070 to achieve net zero emissions. The 2050 target comes with no guarantees of success. Similar to the Paris agreement, ICAO’s targets don’t come with any authority to set policy. In addition, the agreement doesn’t assign targets to specific countries or airline companies, leaving the task of setting rules to member states.
Frequent fliers are a problem for the planet. Should they pay more? - - Getting in an airplane long ago ceased to be anything remotely resembling a luxury experience. But in recent years, it has become something else as well — a largely unavoidable form of “climate sin.” Although aviation is a relatively slim sliver of global carbon emissions — around 2.5 percent — at the personal level, it carries an enormous footprint practically unmatched by any other individual action. (Avoiding an international flight from New York City to London, for example, could save 600 kilograms of carbon dioxide from spewing into the atmosphere — about double the effect of going vegan for a year.) The climate activist Greta Thunberg once opted to take a high-speed racing yacht across the Atlantic rather than get in a plane; in her home country, Swedes have started using the word flygskam, which means “flying shame.” But despite the efforts of activists and climate scientists, most people are unlikely to give up flying. A new report by the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation suggests another way forward: A global tax on those who fly the most — the proceeds of which could be used to fund research and development into emissions-free aviation fuels. The report suggests a frequent flier tax that starts on the second flight each individual takes per year, at a rate of $9. It would then steadily ratchet up, reaching $177 for the 20th flight in a single year. (A “flight” in this case, is a single take off and landing — that is, half of a round trip.) For most Americans — who take two or fewer flights per year — the tax would cost about the same as buying a drink and a bag of chips at the airport. But business travelers and other frequent fliers racking up dozens of flights every 12 months would face steeper costs. Such a tax, according to the study, could fully fund the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable aviation fuel. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization — the United Nations agency that coordinates international air travel — switching to sustainable fuels and making other aircraft efficiency improvements will cost around $121 billion per year until 2050. (Sustainable aviation fuels, which are biofuels made from things like corn, oil and grease, do exist but cost two to five times more than equivalent jet fuels made from fossil fuels).
Warren, Dems seek answers on crypto impact on Texas grid - Democrats led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren are probing how the cryptocurrency mining industry affects the main Texas grid, citing concerns about reliability and climate change.In a Wednesday letter, Warren and six other Democratic lawmakers asked the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) for data on the power used by crypto mining operations, the associated carbon dioxide emissions and the impact on electricity costs to Texans.The letter also asked for details on payments to cryptocurrency mining companies for curtailing their energy use under programs that kick in for industrial customers when power supplies are tight. Critics have raised concerns that miners — particularly those for the energy-intensive Bitcoin currency — were given hefty subsidies for curtailing use this summer during heat waves, which also helped the crypto industry avoid higher electricity prices.“In simple terms, the Bitcoin miners make money from mining that produces major strains on the electric grid: and during peak demand when the profitability of continuing to mine decreases, they then collect subsidies in the form of demand response payments when they shut off their mining operations and do nothing,” the Democratic legislators said in the letter.The payments, the Democrats added, “contribute to a larger issue of having consumers, rather than industries with outsized electricity demand like cryptominers, bear the costs of maintaining the electricity grid.”Texas has become a hub for cryptocurrency miners, fueling concerns about the electricity grid. Crypto mining operations require large amounts of electricity and run virtually around the clock. That can sometimes force grid operators to start up natural gas- or coal-fired power plants that would otherwise be idled.Industrial-scale crypto miners use an estimated 2 gigawatts of power on the grid in Texas already, according to an April presentation by the Texas Blockchain Council. There are 1,000 megawatts in a gigawatt. One megawatt can power about 200 homes during peak demand, according to ERCOT, whose region accounts for about 90 percent of the state’s power load. ERCOT estimates that another 27 GW of crypto operations could be added to the grid by 2026, an amount representing about a third of the grid’s normal peak demand.
Open source to open door: Software emerges as risk to the grid - The worst computer vulnerability in recent years was in a ubiquitous piece of open-source software — a bug that was as simple to exploit as it was difficult to patch. The Apache Log4j security flaw opened the door to millions of computers, but the extent of the damage still isn’t fully understood. Nearly a year later, federal officials and Congress are still discussing how to avoid another potential disaster. Open source, which is code that is “open” to everyone to use or edit, can be found in nearly every type of modern technology. It has served as the backbone of the internet, and is pervasive throughout the economy — including in the energy sector. That makes it a looming issue for energy cybersecurity. “Of course, [the Energy Department] is concerned about open-source software,” said Cheri Caddy, a former senior adviser at DOE who is currently director of cyber policy and plans at the Office of the National Cyber Director. “Open-source software is a part of all software development, whether it’s [operational technology] or IT. It’s just ubiquitous in everything now.” The Log4j security lapse highlighted some of the key concerns: The development team was small, the software was found in nearly every industry, and many companies were unsure if they even had the code in their products. The problem, experts say, is not that open source is inherently less secure than proprietary software. It’s not. But a few lines of code can be adopted throughout an entire industry. When those few lines contain a serious vulnerability, that can be a problem for critical infrastructure, including the grid. It can become an open door that allows malicious hackers to walk into critical systems — especially when utilities aren’t aware that the door even exists. In the energy sector, open-source software is everywhere, said Virginia Wright, an energy cybersecurity portfolio program manager at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Wright manages a DOE grid vulnerability testing bed called Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS). The program, run by six DOE labs and led by INL, ferrets out vulnerabilities in the software that runs the power grid. “One hundred percent of the systems that we have looked at have contained open-source software,” Wright said. CyTRICS works on a voluntary basis with some of the biggest grid equipment manufacturers, like Hitachi Energy and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories. Once a vulnerability is found, the lab reaches out to the manufacturers with potential mitigation measures to help patch the bug. Sometimes that includes publicly known vulnerabilities. Because open-source software is freely available and widely used, vendors may not be aware that a vulnerability and patch even exist, Wright said. Wright said that the labs have seen grid equipment vendors selling older versions of their products with known vulnerabilities and fixes. Some of that software is even updated in those vendors’ own systems, and their customers are “buying it with all of the vulnerabilities attached,” Wright said.
How the Promise of a Clean Energy Future in Pennsylvania Could Be Undone by Politics - The most ambitious climate bill in history has the potential to accelerate Pennsylvania’s transition to a green economy or keep it tied to fossil fuel production, depending on shifting political dynamics and the influence of long-entrenched oil and gas companies.For Gov. Tom Wolf, whose environmental legacy consists of playing defense against a Republican-dominated Legislature and a powerful fossil fuel lobby, the passage of the federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is welcome news. “These are necessary investments,” Wolf said during a talk at the Global Clean Energy Action Forum in Pittsburgh on Sept. 22, just weeks after the IRA was signed into law on Aug. 16. “That will pave the way for a faster and smoother transition to a clean energy future. And they’re going to provide states and local governments with more resources to continue to progress and make real reductions in emissions.”These investments could cut annual emissions in 2030 by around 1 billion metric tons, or around 40% below 2005 levels, according to the widely cited, albeit imperfect, modeling performed by the REPEAT Project out of Princeton University. The $437 billion spending bill does so by incentivizing the good rather than punishing the bad — through tax credits, grants and loan programs, to prompt the cleanup of polluting industries and the buildout of greener alternatives. Some of those cleanup subsidies will go straight to fossil fuel companies, to the frustration of environmentalists.And in Pennsylvania, environmentalists are wary that the legislation’s investments in hydrogen and carbon capture and storage could leave the state hooked on natural gas. At least one local economic development group is already keen to embrace this, while some fossil fuel industry groups were not swayed by the incentives and have attacked the legislation for introducing “punitive new taxes” and “regulatory red tape.”At the Clean Energy Action Forum, Wolf expressed his hope that tax credits for renewable projects could incentivize the buildout of green energy, secure good-paying jobs in communities decimated by job loss within the fossil fuel industry and help lower the commonwealth’s overall emissions. Environmental advocates in Pennsylvania told Capital & Main they’re similarly encouraged by the potential for the IRA to help the state reduce its methane emissions from oil and gas and, with local support, help cultivate a green economy. How close Pennsylvania gets to seeing this vision to fruition will come down to how legislators, regulators, local zoning boards and municipalities use what’s available to them. It could also come down to the outcome in November of a contentious gubernatorial race — between a far-right senator, Doug Mastriano, who once called climate science “fake,” and the commonwealth’s current attorney general, Josh Shapiro, who supports a green energy buildoutand has charged several fossil fuel giants with environmental crimes — and the potential shiftof legislative power after a midterm election with redrawn electoral maps.
N.M. enacted a climate law 3 years ago. Then things got hard. - New Mexico enacted one of the most ambitious climate laws in America in 2019, with plans to phase out coal, boost renewables and support displaced coal workers. Three years later, the Land of Enchantment shows just how messy the energy transition can be. Greenhouse gas emissions are down and renewable generation is up, but fights continue to burn over the future of displaced workers and the cost of the transition. Communities in northwest New Mexico are pressing to reopen a recently shuttered coal plant with carbon capture and sequestration. Renewable projects meant to fill the gap left by dwindling coal have been delayed by a global supply chain crunch. And a legal fight over how to pay for the energy shift, which pits the state’s largest power company against utility regulators, is now before the state Supreme Court. The attempt to green New Mexico’s economy will also be on the ballot next month, when Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat who has championed the transition, faces Mark Ronchetti, a Republican who has attacked the governor for pursuing a “California energy policy.” The outcome could reverberate nationally. Unlike Washington and New York, both of which also enacted major climate laws three years ago, New Mexico is a fossil fuel state. Oil and gas regularly accounts for more than a quarter of its general fund revenues. Coal, meanwhile, was responsible for more than half the state’s electricity generation as recently as 2017. But by 2019 it was clear that the state’s energy system was changing. Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM), the state’s largest utility, announced in 2017 it would close a large coal plant in the northwestern corner of the state. That plant, the San Juan Generating Station, extinguished its boilers last month. “The transition is happening,” said Sarah Propst, New Mexico secretary of energy, minerals and natural resources. “How you structure it and react to it, that’s where New Mexico is trying to be ahead of the curve.” The law was meant to put some guardrails on the transition, she said. It required half the state’s electricity to come from renewables by 2030 and all of its power to come from zero-carbon resources by 2045. It also earmarked $40 million to be split between coal workers and community development projects to soften the impact of coal closures (Climatewire, Jan. 3, 2020). Three years later, New Mexico is making progress despite the difficulties it has faced, Propst said. Utilities are on track to meet the state’s renewable portfolio standard, despite supply chain delays that prevented renewable projects from coming online as planned. Wind and solar account for 38 percent of power this year in the balancing authority run by PNM, up from 23 percent in 2019, U.S. Energy Information Administration figures show. Power plant emissions also fell from 23 million tons in 2019 to 19 million tons last year, according to EPA data. Even so, the utility was forced to keep one coal unit running at San Juan through the summer to keep the lights on as projects slated to come online this year were delayed. The utility reported at the time that its reserve margin for power was 0.9 percent, far less than the 18 percent it shoots for (Climatewire, Feb. 1).
The promise of lithium sparks a gold rush in Imperial Valley - The geothermal plant established by San Diego-based EnergySource looks like a refinery, sitting on the flat desert land of the Imperial Valley. It was built in the township of Calipatria in 2006, and since then, it has produced geothermal energy by extracting searing, hot water that is found underground. But that underground lake has something more than just heat. The water is loaded with minerals ready to be mined, including manganese, zinc and lithium. It’s lithium that has spawned a flurry of construction and speculation as the demand for lithium car batteries rockets into the stratosphere. “We started out looking at manganese, zinc and lithium,” said Eric Spomer, the CEO of what they now call EnergySource Minerals. “But it became clear pretty quickly that all anybody wanted to talk about was lithium.” Spomer said the business plan of EnergySource always envisioned a mining operation. Now that the focus is lithium, they are planning to build a $1 billion expansion to pull that now-precious metal from the same salty brine water that has been generating geothermal energy. “When you ask: How do you finance a billion-dollar project? Given everything we’ve done here, that it’s fully permitted, that we have a definitive feasibility study done, it’s not about whether we can raise the money. It’s about what (the financing) is going to look like,” Spomer said. EnergySource Minerals isn’t the only game in town. Berkshire Hathaway Energy and Australia-based Controlled Thermal Resources are also planning to mine lithium in Imperial County, using a new technical process called Direct Lithium Extraction. People have started calling the area “Lithium Valley.” Governor Newsom has signed a bill to tax future lithium extraction, and to start splitting up the revenues between Imperial County and the effort to restore the Salton Sea. Spomer.jpg Thomas Fudge EnergySource CEO Eric Spomer stands amid the workings of the company's geothermal plant in Imperial County, where they say lithium mining will soon begin. Oct 5, 2022. This is happening in one of California’s most impoverished counties, where the unemployment rate has historically exceeded 20%. Local advocates say they want to be sure the “lithium gold rush” isn’t just something that benefits outside industry. “Every time there’s an opportunity, we’ve been exploited,” said Luis Olmedo, executive director of the Comite Civico del Valle, an organization that serves farm workers and other disadvantaged communities. “We’re going to pull together because if we don’t work together in unity, every interested party that sees a financial opportunity is going to tear us apart. And we’re going to end up with nothing but extraction, and no benefits in our own community.”
Biden makes Camp Hale a national monument, moves to block mining and drilling on 225,000 acres of Colorado’s Thompson Divide -President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed a proclamation creating the Camp Hale-Continental Divide National Monument as his administration simultaneously moved to block mining and oil and gas drilling on 225,000 acres of Colorado’s Thompson Divide.Biden visited Eagle County on Wednesday to discuss and celebrate the actions. His trip also comes on behalf of Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, who is running for reelection in November and has pushed for years for additional protections inside the White River National Forest and along the Thompson Divide.Ballots start being mailed out to Colorado voters on Monday. “This guy, he made this finally happen,” Biden said of Bennet while speaking Wednesday at Camp Hale. “He came to the White House and he said ‘I told you what I need.’ And I said ‘I’ll do it.’ You know why? I was worried he’d never leave the damn White House.”The Camp Hale monument, adding protections to the former Army base near Leadville where 10th Mountain Division soldiers trained before heading to fight in World War II, is the nation’s 159th national monument and the ninth in Colorado. It’s the first designated by Biden.The monument also includes the Tenmile Range mountains west of Frisco and Breckenridge.“I’m honored to sign this proclamation and preserve a special part of our military history,” Biden told the crowd of about 300 people gathered in the field on textbook Colorado day of blue skies and a cool wind. The 53,804-acre monument and an area of the Thompson Divide near Carbondale that will be protected includes portions of land that would have been otherwise shielded from development by the Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act — or CORE Act — that has been stalled in Congress because of a lack of Republican support. Bennet is a lead sponsor of the CORE Act.Biden’s use of the 1906 Antiquities Act to create the monument early Wednesday sidesteps Congressional inaction on the lands bill.“By protecting this iconic area and proposing a mineral withdrawal for the Thompson Divide, the President is building on a series of steps the Administration has taken to protect some of America’s most cherished lands and waters,” the White House said in a written statement.
Auto giant Stellantis looks to Australian materials, including nickel, for its EVs - Stellantis is turning to Australia as it looks to procure the materials needed for its electric vehicle strategy in the years ahead. On Monday, the automaker said a non-binding memorandum of understanding related to the "future sale of quantities of battery grade nickel and cobalt sulphate products" had been signed with Sydney-listed GME Resources Limited . According to Stellantis, the MoU is centered around materials sourced from the NiWest Nickel-Cobalt Project, which has been earmarked for development in Western Australia. In a statement, the firm described NiWest as an operation that would produce around 90,000 tons of "battery grade nickel and cobalt sulphate" for the EV market each year. Stellantis said that, so far, over 30 million Australian dollars (around $18.95 million) had been "invested into drilling, metallurgical test work and development studies." A definitive feasibility study for the project is due to begin this month. In its statement Monday, Stellantis — whose brands include Fiat, Chrysler and Citroen — referenced its goal of all passenger sales in Europe being battery electric by the year 2030. In the U.S., it wants a "50% passenger car and light-duty truck BEV sales mix" within the same timeframe. "Securing the raw material sources and battery supply will strengthen Stellantis' value chain for electric vehicle battery production," Maxime Picat, chief purchasing and supply chain officer at Stellantis, said. . According to the International Energy Agency, electric vehicle sales are on course to hit an all-time high this year. The sector's expansion and other factors are creating pressure points when it comes to the supply of the batteries crucial for EVs. "The rapid increase in EV sales during the pandemic has tested the resilience of battery supply chains, and Russia's war in Ukraine has further exacerbated the challenge," the IEA notes, adding that prices of materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel "have surged." "In May 2022, lithium prices were over seven times higher than at the start of 2021," it adds. "Unprecedented battery demand and a lack of structural investment in new supply capacity are key factors."
Oil, gas or wind: What produces more energy per offshore acre? - Canary Media’s chart of the week translates crucial data about the clean energy transition into a visual format. Offshore leasing for energy development has been in the news thanks to the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, which requires the federal government to offer new leases for oil and gas drilling off America’s coastlines before it can offer new leases for offshore wind. In terms of energy output per acre, however, leasing for offshore wind is a more productive use of U.S. waters, according to a new report from the Center for American Progress.The report uses vehicle miles as a way to compare the three types of offshore energy development. One average productive acre of oil leasing generates enough gasoline to drive a car 1,917 miles. One acre of fossil-gas leasing produces enough electricity to drive an electric car 99,572 miles. One acre of wind leasing beats them both, producing enough electricity to drive an electric car 117,919 miles. Leasing for wind development also raises much more money for Americans than does leasing for oil or gas. The average winning bid per acre for offshore oil and gas leases from2019 to the present was $47, according to the report. For offshore wind, the figure is a dramatically higher $5,906.“The average acre from an offshore wind lease sale brings in nearly 12,500 percent more revenue for taxpayers than 1 acre of oil while providing enough electricity to drive an electric vehicle almost 65 times farther than a gasoline-powered vehicle,” writes Michael Freeman, a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress and author of the report. Offshore wind is expected to play a key role in decarbonization as a major source of clean energy, and countries around the world have been installing offshore turbines at a fast clip. Last year, more than 21 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity were connected worldwide, 80percent of that in China. In the U.S., the industry is only just getting started, but states on the East Coast have set goals to bring more than 36 gigawatts of offshore wind online by or before 2040, and California recently set a target to install 25 gigawatts by 2045.
FEMA plan sparks fears of renewables slowdown - The Federal Emergency Management Agency is proposing stricter requirements for renewable installations to withstand natural disasters, prompting warnings from industry groups that say the plan is a severe threat to clean energy and growth of solar power.The FEMA proposal is under consideration as part of the latest model building code being created by the International Code Council (ICC), which helps set policy in all 50 states and involves buildings’ durability and safety. It is part of broader ICC standards that are typically adopted statewide or enacted by individual cities and counties.FEMA’s plan involves power generation facilities owned and operated by public utilities and designates them as the highest risk category under the model building codes. That means cities and states could require such power plants to withstand major hurricanes, floods or earthquakes and come back online shortly after natural disasters — criteria similar to those for hospitals, police stations and emergency shelters.Yet the proposal has ignited a firestorm among solar, wind and energy storage advocates, who say that it would spike the cost of construction and force “unworkable” requirements on manufacturers of renewables.“This is a gross overreach,” Solar Energy Industries Association President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said in a recent blog post. “There is no extended record of irreparable damage to solar arrays from higher seismic, wind or snow loads, and there is no justification for these overly burdensome codes.”She warned that “dozens of gigawatts of clean energy projects” could be canceled if the code change is adopted by the ICC this year. In an open letter, SEIA joined wind and storage advocates at the American Clean Power Association and the Distributed Wind Energy Association in urging the council not to support FEMA’s proposal. More than two hundred renewable and storage companies, including major utilities like NextEra Energy and developers like Vestas, also signed the letter.FEMA did not provide comment to E&E News by publication time. But in the proposal itself, the agency said the new requirements are “measured in scope” and a necessary preparation for natural disasters.David Bonowitz, a California engineer and the lead author of the proposal, said the changes were “simple and self-evident” during a public comment session last month. Bonowitz was part of a technical committee advising the agency.“The clutch performance of California’s solar system after the recent heat wave reminds us we’re going to need those systems after our next big earthquake,” he said then. In September, California experienced a record heat wave that raised concerns about blackouts (Energywire, Sept. 7).Bonowitz also noted that the Inflation Reduction Act has set aside billions in new funding to expand clean energy.“Remember that when you hear this is about to kill the solar industry,” he said. “With this new budget and policy support, it is more important than ever to make sure all the new stuff we’re building — for public utilities — are properly assigned in the building code.”Whether the FEMA proposal makes it into the ICC’s new model building codes depends on officials who work in local departments of sustainability, buildings and other areas. They will vote in an online round that opened Monday and closes on Oct. 24.
Why agencies buy less clean power under Biden than Trump - President Joe Biden is implementing some of the strongest renewable energy incentives in history, but federal procurement of clean power at many agencies has fallen since he took office.Sustainability scorecards released last week by the White House show that renewable energy purchases at EPA and the departments of Energy, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development for 2021 were at or near their lowest levels since 2010. That contrasts sharply with the amount of clean energy that those agencies bought for their operations under former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, particularly at EPA, the agency tasked with administering some of Biden’s flagship climate policies.The progress reports for each agency tell slightly different stories about the purchase of wind and solar power within the federal government. But the trend across several agencies shows that renewable energy use peaked in the Obama or early Trump years, then cratered before the Covid-19 pandemic. It has not rebounded under Biden — in contrast to his administration’s promises that federal procurement would be part of the “whole of government approach” to curbing climate change.Take EPA. The agency tasked with regulating everything from power plants to oil wells for their effects on global warming saw its purchase of renewable energy dwindle last year to its second-lowest level since 2010. EPA used 11,000 megawatt-hours of renewable electricity last year, or 11.9 percent of its overall power consumption. By contrast, between 2010 and 2016, the agency consumed an average of 138,000 MWh of renewable power annually.During those years, EPA invested heavily in renewable energy certificates, or RECs, to cover more than 100 percent of its annual electricity use.Renewable energy companies generate one REC per megawatt-hour of electricity that they contribute to the grid, and entities — including federal agencies — can purchase them to offset their consumption of fossil fuel-based power while encouraging investment in renewables.EPA is still buying RECs — including enough to account for 7,000 MWh last year. But its procurement of renewable energy has fallen far short of an Obama-era executive order that directed agencies to draw 10 percent of their power from green sources in 2016 and 2017, and 20 percent by 2020.Other agencies followed a similar trend.At DOE, the renewable energy cliff came in 2019. For two years before then, renewable energy use at the agency skyrocketed under Trump to 1.604 million MWh of green power, equaling 30.4 percent of DOE’s overall power consumption. Then, in 2019, it nosedived to 18.1 percent of the agency’s power consumption — and never recovered. Last year, clean power accounted for 19.2 percent of DOE’s consumption.At HUD, 2016 might have been dubbed the Year of the Green Electron. One year earlier, the department drew only 8.9 percent of its power — or 2,000 MWh — from renewable sources. Then it ballooned to 84.6 percent in 2016, before crashing back to earth the following year at 11.1 percent. Last year’s rate was marginally higher at 25 percent.A similar story was unfolding at USDA. Renewable power usage peaked at 35 percent of consumption in 2016. It fell thereafter. Usage last year stood at 13.4 percent.The Department of Defense is an outlier. Last year, it used more than 1.9 million MWh of clean power. That was only 6.5 percent of the department’s total consumption but still represented its high-water mark for green electricity use.
Ohio regulators sit on coal plant subsidy cases | Energy News Network --Although Ohio regulators have paused four FirstEnergy cases dealing with House Bill 6, they could still take action in cases dealing with the two 1950s-era coal plants that were subsidized by the law at the heart of Ohio’s ongoing corruption scandal. Yet the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio has made no rulings in those cases in months. Meanwhile, bills to repeal the subsidies have been stalled in legislative committees since last year.As a result, Ohio ratepayers remain on the hook through 2030 for hundreds of millions of dollars in costs for the plants. For now, customers are getting credit for a few cents per month. Among other things, revenues from higher energy prices have let the plants recoup more of their costs than previously anticipated, so the utilities didn’t need to collect as much as they originally forecast. But critics expect costs and ratepayer charges will rise next year for the plants run by the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation, or OVEC.“Initially the subsidy was imposed by the PUCO. And now the subsidy is a state law courtesy of [the] infamous House Bill 6,” said Merrilee Embs, spokesperson for Ohio Consumers’ Counsel Bruce Weston. “The PUCO’s subsidy is still under dispute by OCC and others and is awaiting a PUCO ruling.”Cases for 2018 and 2019 could determine whether utilities must credit ratepayers for millions of dollars of past overcharges under PUCO orders before HB 6, as well as how much the utilities can continue to charge ratepayers in the future. A separate case deals with the charges for 2020 under HB 6. The PUCO has not taken action in that case since last year. “I cannot speculate on when or how the commission will decide future cases,” said PUCO spokesperson Brittany Waugaman.The PUCO and utilities have described the coal plant charges as a hedge against volatile energy prices. However, coal-fired power plants are generally less competitive than plants that run on natural gas. And costs for renewable energy have fallen dramatically over the past decade.Yet American Electric Power President and Chief Operating Officer Marc Reitter praised HB 6’s OVEC provisions at a Columbus Metropolitan Club forum this summer.“In an inflationary environment like we’re in, our customers receive 11 cents a month credit,” Reitter said, adding that the credit could rise to $1 per month next year. AES Ohio and Duke Energy’s residential customers are getting bill adjustments ranging from 5 to 37 cents per month. FirstEnergy’s residential customers are currently getting a credit of 20 cents per month, said spokesperson Will Boye.But those credits result from bill adjustments, worksheets obtained from the PUCO suggest. Estimates are made every six months for what utilities expect to pay to cover their share of OVEC’s costs that exceed its revenues. Adjustments are made if amounts were over- or under-collected during the prior period.Higher costs for natural gas drove electricity prices higher, so the OVEC plants were able to get more revenue. But it appears that companies thought they’d need more from ratepayers to make up for a shortfall between revenues from power sales and their share of the OVEC plants’ costs.
Fact-checking J.D. Vance on Tim Ryan’s record on fracking – PolitiFact – The candidates in one of the nation’s hottest midterm races — the contest for an open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio — came out swinging in an Oct. 10 debate, with Republican J.D. Vance and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan accusing each other of being dishonest.Here, we’ll examine an exchange involving Ryan’s stance on natural gas production. It’s an issue of importance to Ohio, which ranks as the nation’s sixth-biggest producer of natural gas.Vance raised energy policy in the debate’s opening exchange, saying that Democrats have "gone to war" against the domestic energy sector. Ryan countered by citing provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, which President Joe Biden signed Aug. 16, that Ryan said go "all in on natural gas."He continued, "I’ve been a natural gas proponent since I’ve been in Congress. And we have to get this right. We need to increase our production of natural gas. I support streamlining the permitting process around natural gas so we can get it around the country, lower costs for businesses, and ship it to Europe to stick our finger in Vladimir Putin’s eye."Vance, however, wasn’t buying Ryan’s claim that he’s championed natural gas production.Vance said, "Tim Ryan just told a big fib. He said he supported Ohio’s natural gas industry and he’s always done so. And yet Tim Ryan when he ran for president, two years ago, you supported banning fracking both on public lands and generally speaking." Synopsis: Ryan, as a 2020 presidential candidate, spoke about regulating fracking and even halting it if the industry cannot keep local residents safe. He said he’d “absolutely” consider banning fracking on federal lands and voted to stop the processing of fracking applications for drilling sites off California’s coast. However, Ryan’s full record of statements and policies show his focus has been on leveraging natural gas as a transitional fuel and a source of revenue and jobs for Ohio, while reducing environmental risks. See the sources for this fact-check.
Seven Years Later, Students for Energy Justice Continue Protests Against NEXUS Pipeline -On Oct. 2, Students for Energy Justice, organized a walk against the NEXUS pipeline. The climate justice student group focuses on supporting communities impacted by fossil fuel emissions. A group of approximately 20 SEJ members and students walked to the pipeline, which is located near the Oberlin Recreation Complex 20 minutes south of campus. During the walk, they discussed fracking, eminent domain, and past community activism against the pipeline. In 2014, Spectra Energy moved forward with its proposal to construct the pipeline and was met with swift condemnation from the Oberlin community, along with claims that the pipeline would violate the 2013 Oberlin Community Bill of Rights. This Bill of Rights was a product of Oberlin’s participation in Ohio’s community rights movement, which sought to create legislation that enables community self-governance. In Oberlin, this meant ensuring the protection of the College and City from the environmental harm of pipelines, fracking, and other hazards to public safety. In later years, these principles were put to the test by motions passed against the Bill of Rights. Throughout 2015, bills were passed blocking citizen initiatives, including the Community Bill of Rights protecting Oberlin from environmental hazards. In response to the 2015 motions, SEJ members began protesting by instituting community charters and city ordinances to prevent the construction of the pipeline. Up until 2018, the group attended City Council hearings about the construction of the NEXUS pipeline. Despite SEJ-led efforts, the project went into operation in September 2018. The NEXUS pipeline delivers gas supplies starting in southeastern Michigan, through northern Ohio, and up to Ontario, Canada. The pipeline travels directly through Oberlin city limits and is designed to carry up to 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily. College second-year Sydney Paunan attended the walk and took note of the area surrounding the pipeline. “It runs by residential areas, soccer fields, the bike path, and a senior care facility,” Paunan said. “Plus, the areas in the blast zone have high concentrations of low-income residents and residents of color. That was not an accident. All of these people and community spaces would be directly impacted were there to be a leak or explosion.”
Greens Urge EPA To End Ohio's Oversight Of Fracking Wells – Law360 -- Environmentalists have asked the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency to revoke the state of Ohio's ability to regulate wastewater injection wells, arguing that lax oversight is allowing toxic sludge to threaten water quality and safety in the Appalachians. . . .
Environmental advocates want U.S. EPA to take charge of regulating oil and gas waste injection wells in Ohio - cleveland.com - A collection of environmental organizations is asking the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to take over regulation of oil and gas waste injection wells in Ohio, a role that has been handled by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources since 1983.A petition filed earlier this week by the Buckeye Environmental Network, Sierra Club, Earthjustice and a number of other community groups in Ohio, claims ODNR has failed to adequately protect poor communities from the harmful effects of the injection wells and is in violation of the federal Safe Drinking Water Act.Most of the 226 oil and gas waste injection wells in Ohio are in the eastern part of the state, south of Youngstown, and 48% of the waste disposed in them comes from Pennsylvania and West Virginia, said James Yskamp, an Ohio-based attorney with Earthjustice, which is headquartered in California.The injection wells are for disposing of wastewater generated from the extraction of oil and gas through horizontal fracturing and conventional vertical drilling.Federal action is needed to prevent Ohio from continuing to regulate injection wells “in a manner that endangers underground sources of drinking water, disproportionately impacts low‐income Appalachian Ohioans and deprives those most impacted by Class II disposal wells of the opportunity to participate in major decisions,” states the petition’s executive summary.The wastewater contains radioactive material and heavy metals that naturally exist deep in the ground and may also possibly contain PFAS (otherwise known as forever chemicals) and other harmful ingredients of fracking fluid, Yskamp said.The concerns about the injection wells have been around for a long time, Yskamp said, and many involve flaws in the permit scheme that allow for wastewater injected into the wells to potentially contaminate groundwater or rise to the surface and pollute surface streams. For example, those seeking a permit do not have to provide what’s called a “zone of influence calculation,” he said, which is performed by experts to determine how far wastewater could potentially migrate. Nor are permit seekers required to determine the depth of any underground sources of drinking water near a proposed injection site, he said.Furthermore, enforcement of ODNR’s regulations is inadequate because the agency does not have “unilateral authority” to issue penalties, he said, and instead must rely on the Ohio Attorney General to do so. That makes for a cumbersome process that rarely gets done and results in the same violations over and over again.Another big flaw, he said, is that the “public participation process is really a sham,” Yskamp said. “The permit to construct a well is noticed to the public, but the decision to allow the well cannot be appealed.” The permit to begin injecting into a well can be appealed, he said, “but that is not noticed to the public in anyway.”
Ohio groups petition U.S. EPA to revoke state's regulation of oil and gas waste disposal wells - A coalition of 27 environmental and civil rights groups has petitioned the U.S. EPA to take away Ohio’s authority to regulate oil and gas waste disposal wells. The groups, which includes the Sierra Club, Buckeye Environmental Network, Ohio NAACP chapters, and Ohio Poor People’s Campaign, claim that the state’s failure to take enforcement action against companies that violate regulations is endangering drinking water sources and disproportionately burdening low-income Appalachian communities. In 1983, the U.S. EPA granted the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) primary enforcement authority, known as primacy. This gave ODNR oversight over the state’sClass II injection well program, which is part of the Safe Water Drinking Act. Class II wells are deep underground, where waste from the oil and gas industry is disposed. In some states, like Pennsylvania, EPA largely regulates these wells. “A lot has changed since then [1983],” said Earthjustice attorney Megan Hunter, whose name appears on the petition.She’s talking about the rise of unconventional gas development, called fracking, in Ohio, and with it, the “enormous increase in the amount of oil and gas waste,” Hunter said at a press conference. “Operators currently produce billions of tons of waste annually, and much of this waste ends up in Class II wells in Ohio.” “The waste injected into these wells is radioactive and contains toxic levels of various organic and inorganic pollutants, including PFAS, also known as forever chemicals,” she continued. “As this petition lays out, Ohio’s program has failed to safely manage this huge influx of waste.”The petition describes how the state’s Class II program contains numerous technical deficiencies, like over-pressurization of waste as it is pumped underground, and failure to locate migration pathways, require information on the local geology, and require characterization of the waste that is being injected, which has led to what the petition calls “serious” consequences. “These consequences include oil and gas waste making its way to the surface miles away from injection well sites, polluting the environment, and endangering underground sources of drinking water,” Hunter said. The petition describes how ODNR fails to enforce violations of the program, explaining that the agency lacks tools, “such as unilateral penalty authority, that are necessary to bring violators into compliance,” said another Earthjustice attorney, James Yskamp. When ODNR attempts to issue penalties, it seeks them through the Attorney General’s office, “a cumbersome process that cannot timely address most violations at Class II wells,” according to the petition, and one that “ODNR has used to address problems at Class II disposal wells fewer than six times in the program’s 39‐year history.” READ MORE:
- Group finds PFAS ‘forever’ chemicals used in Ohio oil and gas wells
- Why Frack Wastewater Injected Underground Doesn’t Always Stay There
- More Ohioans Want Some Say in Siting Drilling Waste Injection Wells
Strs Ohio Lowers Stake in The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB) - Strs Ohio reduced its stake in shares of The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB – Get Rating) by 43.9% in the second quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 53,636 shares of the pipeline company’s stock after selling 41,915 shares during the quarter. Strs Ohio’s holdings in Williams Companies were worth $1,673,000 at the end of the most recent quarter. Other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Pendal Group Ltd raised its holdings in shares of Williams Companies by 3.0% in the second quarter. Pendal Group Ltd now owns 148,976 shares of the pipeline company’s stock valued at $4,650,000 after acquiring an additional 4,369 shares in the last quarter. Spire Wealth Management raised its holdings in Williams Companies by 1,967.3% in the second quarter. Spire Wealth Management now owns 193,168 shares of the pipeline company’s stock worth $6,029,000 after purchasing an additional 183,824 shares in the last quarter. RNC Capital Management LLC raised its holdings in Williams Companies by 18.8% in the second quarter. RNC Capital Management LLC now owns 17,095 shares of the pipeline company’s stock worth $534,000 after purchasing an additional 2,700 shares in the last quarter. Rice Partnership LLC raised its holdings in Williams Companies by 9.8% in the second quarter. Rice Partnership LLC now owns 57,108 shares of the pipeline company’s stock worth $1,782,000 after purchasing an additional 5,103 shares in the last quarter. Finally, First Bank & Trust raised its holdings in Williams Companies by 3.2% in the second quarter. First Bank & Trust now owns 71,215 shares of the pipeline company’s stock worth $2,222,000 after purchasing an additional 2,182 shares in the last quarter. 85.40% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors. (NB: STRS Ohio is the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio)
School, houses evacuated in Dayton after crews break gas line - Multiple homes and a school had to be evacuated Wednesday afternoon when a construction crew boring into the sidewalk ruptured a gas line. The large gas leak was reported just after 12:30 p.m. in the first block of Richmond Avenue. Residents from multiple homes and the Richard Allen Preparatory school on Salem Avenue had to be evacuated due to the high presence of gas in the area, said Dayton Fire Department Director and Chief Jeff Lykins. CenterPoint Energy crews clamped the natural gas line break less than three hours after the line was hit. Residents were to be able to return to their homes once fire crews made sure gas wasn’t pooling in the area, Lykins said. Fire crews went into each house to check basements for accumulating gas. They found a concentration of gas in one basement, but cleared it out, the chief said. “We’re checking to make sure there’s no pools of standing gas,” Lykins said. said. “We’re using fans to blow out any underground areas where pools of gas could accumulate. “We’re fortunate that it is breezy today, so not a lot of pooling. The leak was obviously below ground which makes it a little more difficult in locating the leak. When it does pool it’s going to pool underground, so we have to get in those lower areas to identify where it could be pooling.” Lykins didn’t have the exact number of residences that were evacuated, but said it was almost the entire block.
9 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 26-Oct 2 | Marcellus Drilling News - Just nine new permits to drill shale wells were issued across the three Marcellus/Utica states for Sept. 26 to Oct. 2. Pennsylvania turned in the second week in a row of very low new permits–just three issued, all of them to different companies in different counties. Ohio issued just four new permits, with two of them going to Encino Energy in Carroll County. And West Virginia issued just two new permits, both to Southwestern Energy in Brooke County. Ascent Resources, Bradford County, Brooke County, Carroll County,Chesapeake Energy, Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G), Encino Energy, Energy Companies, Guernsey County, Jefferson County (OH), Range Resources Corp, Southwestern Energy,Susquehanna County, Utica Resources, Washington County
Investment is Leaving the Marcellus/Utica, Heading to Haynesville --Marcellus Drilling News -Capital from private investors and banks is leaving (or rather, not entering) the Marcellus/Utica region and is, instead, heading to the Gulf Coast–in particular, capital investment is heading to the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and East Texas. That was the observation of several speakers at the recent Hart Energy America’s Natural Gas conference. According to Kevin Little, senior vice president for natural gas at Macquarie Energy, the lack of pipelines and infrastructure in the M-U is not just keeping the gas in the region, the lack of pipelines is keeping investment (for more drilling) out. Here is the real tragedy: “U.S. LNG export capacity is primed to ramp up and the largest, most economic natural gas basin [the M-U] is left out of the action, unable to increase production to meet the higher demand.”
See where toxic PFAS have been used in Pennsylvania fracking wells - —Toxic “forever chemicals”, also known as PFAS, have been used in at least eight oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania, but the exact location of those wells has never been publicly disclosed — until now.Experts say it’s possible that communities where PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) have been used by the oil and gas industry could face contamination of soil, groundwater and drinking water — and that contamination could be widespread.The chemicals don’t break down naturally, so they linger in the environment and human bodies. Exposure is linked to health problems including kidney and testicular cancer, liver and thyroid problems, reproductive problems, lowered vaccine efficacy in children and increased risk of birth defects, among others.Last year, a report by the environmental health advocacy group Physicians for Social Responsibility revealed that PFAS have been used in hydraulic fracturing and other types of oil and gas extraction across the U.S. for at least a decade, and an EHN investigationpublished in August documented PFAS contamination in one Pennsylvania fracking community resident’s drinking water.A 2021 op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer revealed that the chemicals were used in at least eight wells in Pennsylvania, but did not disclose the location of the wells. Physicians for Social Responsibility recently published a new report on the use of PFAS in Ohio oil and gas wells. In a footnote, that report listed the location for all eight Pennsylvania wells where well operators reported using PFAS in public fracking chemical disclosures.The Pennsylvania wells where PFAS have been used are located in the following communities:
- Chippewa Township, Beaver County (population 7,953)
- Donegal Township, Washington County (population 2,192)
- Independence Township, Washington County (two wells) (population 1,515)
- Pulaski Township, Lawrence County (three wells) (population 3,102)
- West Finley Township, Washington County (population 813)
The operators for all eight wells reported using polytetrafluoroethylene, or PTFE, which is a type of PFAS marketed as Teflon, in fracking fluid. PFAS may also be used during other phases of oil and gas extraction that don’t require any kind of public disclosure. It’s likely that the chemicals have been used in additional Pennsylvania oil and gas wells, but a lack of transparency makes it impossible to know.PFAS are likely being used in oil and gas wells throughout the country, but little research exists on how widespread the practice is and whether it’s causing drinking water contamination. Most existing research on PFAS has focused on other sources of the chemicals, like firefighting foam used at airports and military bases and industrial emissions. Investigations have found drinking water contamination in communities across the country.
Everything - Appalachian Hydrogen Hub May Have It All, Including Support from a Key Senator - The U.S. Department of Energy has laid out a clear set of criteria for the six to 10 clean hydrogen hubs it will select next year to receive up to $8 billion in federal support. For example, DOE wants at least one hub to use renewable energy to make hydrogen, another to use nuclear power, and another to use fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). It also wants diversity among hydrogen end-users — geographic diversity too (at least two hubs must be in areas with the greatest natural gas resources) — and the department says it will give extra weight to proposals likely to create the most opportunities for skilled training and long-term employment. Yet another factor that’s sure to boost the prospects for hydrogen hub proposals in the heart of the Marcellus/Utica Shale is the looming presence of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, the Energy & Natural Resources Committee chairman who helped make hydrogen hub funding — and the rest of last year’s $1-trillion-plus infrastructure bill (and this year’s Inflation Reduction Act) — a reality. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the hydrogen hub proposals now under development in northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio.Over the past few weeks we’ve been reviewing the DOE’s hydrogen hub selection process — now getting under way in earnest — as well as a number of what we see as the leading proposals. We started with a look at the proposed Houston Hydrogen Hub, then followed that up with blogs on planned clean-hydrogen hubs in the Corpus Christi area and Southern California. Most recently, in Halo, we examined plans for a regional hub in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas and reviewed the details in DOE’s September 22 Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA), which officially launched the process of receiving and reviewing hydrogen hub proposals and, ultimately, deciding which proposals should receive federal dollars. As we said then, concept papers from hub proponents are due November 7, while full applications must be submitted to the DOE by April 7, 2023. The department expects to notify the winners in the fall of 2023 and complete award negotiations with them in the winter of 2023-24. Most of the selected proposals would each receive between $500 million and $1 billion in federal support, though it is possible that a proposal could receive as little as $400 million or as much as $1.25 billion, again depending on its size and need.Today, it’s Appalachia’s turn, and we suspect that Manchin may be asking, “What took you so long?” After all, as the title of this blog suggests, it could be argued that a hydrogen hub centered in northern West Virginia and reaching into nearby areas in Pennsylvania and Ohio would have just about everything the feds are looking for: vast reserves of natural gas (and coal), a handful of steam methane reformers (SMRs) at refineries, CCS potential, a slew of existing and potential hydrogen end-users (more on this in a moment), an impressive array of gas pipelines and other supportive infrastructure, and — of special interest to Manchin — the promise of economic development and, with it, the creation of thousands of good-paying jobs.
After the demise of Manchin's dirty deal, what comes next? -First of all, the side deal to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), agreed to by Senators Schumer and Manchin and no one else, showered unwarranted love on our unfriendly neighbor, the risky and unnecessary Mountain Valley fracked Gas Pipeline. We also quickly recognized that the diabolical deal was an arrow aimed at the heart of grassroots environmental and climate movements, and it was a bullseye.Since an unlikely alliance of tribal nations, white landowners, Big Green groups, Democratic donors, grassroots community groups, students, elders and just plain rank and file activists convinced President Obama to reject the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline, pro-fossil pipeline forces have been apoplectic. We anti-pipeline activists were nuts, stupid, and unrealistic. Amazingly, the KXL pipeline fighters held the line for four years of Trump, even though he approved it on his first day as president. And in those years a funny thing happened: “The Keystone effect”—an industry term for the hassle of building fossil fuel infrastructure—spread. The fights against the DAPL pipeline in North Dakota, Enbridge Line 3 in Minnesota, Pacific Connector in Oregon, and the Atlantic Coast in Virginia were intense. Industry won sometimes, but not always. Which seemed to bug them. MVP—Joe Manchin’s Most Valuable Pipeline—was the biggest project in a long stall mode, its fate unknown.If they couldn’t beat us fairly in the regulatory system that had worked for them in the past, then weakening, sidestepping and bypassing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the centerpiece of US environmental legislation, would be the way. Also weakening the Clean Water Act. Also green lighting oil and gas pipelines as a matter of course. Also moving to a different court if you didn’t get the ruling you wanted. All of this was in the Dirty Deal, and it became not only the GOP agenda, but also that of a significant bloc of Democrats. When the side deal was announced, one of the listservs of climate campaigners had a little contest on what to name it. Pipeline Pollution Bill. Sore Loser Bill. Eviscerate Environmental Legislation in a Fit of Pique Bill. In the end, most people called it the Dirty Deal. Remember, the Inflation Reduction Act, while celebrated by most environmental groups, was itself a far cry from its original conception as a multi-trillion-dollar Green New Deal. That was watered down to the Build Back Better bill. Then there were broken promises and machinations that killed Build Back Better, orchestrated by, you guessed it, Joe Manchin. This monumental boondoggle masquerades as climate action reform, but it’s actually a reprise of the cop-out known as All the Above; a pretense that we can fight climate change while simultaneously expanding the production of fossil fuels that are the primary cause of climate change. So the Dirty Deal poured salt into some wounds. And the Dirty Deal seemed like a done deal, in other words, a loser of a campaign. It took some nerve to decide to fight it. What made us tick is that it threatened many communities, which came together for a common purpose while continuing their local efforts.From the moment we learned of it, we had as many as eight calls per day to strategize and coordinate with groups around the country. Those calls ranged from fundraising to speaking to Senate staff, to strategizing with other community leaders.One of the things we decided to do was bring activists to Washington on Sept 8th. Just to pull off our part, we at Seven Directions of Service spent a lot of time fundraising. We were able to bring 60 people to DC by giving them a free ride on the bus and a meal. These are people who live along or near the MVP route, people whose lives are directly affected not only by climate change but by the pipeline itself.Another factor was the commitment of some of the green groups. Greenpeace pulled most of its staff off of non-essential work and had them work on killing the Dirty Deal full time. Our Revolution mobilized its members to contact Senators. Sunrise Movement, Center for Biological Diversity, and many more used their knowledge of how things work on Capitol Hill to help us figure out which Senators and Members of Congress we could sway, and how. We learned how important it is to have connections with Senate staff, how to present our case, and how to build momentum within Congress.13 Executive Directors of green groups got arrested protesting the Dirty Deal. 10 people got arrested during a 100-person blockade of Senator Schumer’s office in New York City.Behind the scenes, great activists worked to help us navigate, pull together logistics, and understand the risks of arrests. We know it’s not over. The central ideas in the Dirty Deal—keeping the fossil fuel era alive as long as possible, side stepping and weakening environmental regulations, sacrificing communities facing these risky projects, will come back and they’ll dress themselves up as permitting reform and climate action. We’ll be ready.
Non-Profit Org Warns Oil and Gas Fumes Cause Cancer: Virginia Industry Org Says, Nay -A non-profit organization has warned residents of West Virginia that exposure to oil and gas fumes can increase their risk of developing cancer, but an organization representing these industries disagrees.Over half of West Virginia's counties are shown on a map in the Clean Air Task Force report to be above the level of concern for cancer risks set by the EPA.The report comes as fresh data from the US Energy Information Administration was made public on Wednesday, showing that gas production in the US surpassed previous records in 2021.The data in the Clean Air Task Force Report is contested by the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia.Although the report was released in September, it is noted that this analysis is of data that the EPA collected in 2017.Experts from CATF explained that they updated the data to a more recent date using EPA projections and trends on the gas and oil industry.According to the Energy Information Administration, 1/3 of all natural gas generated in the United States is produced in the Appalachian Basin, which includes Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.Charlie Burd, executive director of the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia, said that West Virginia is perched atop the Marcellus and Utica shale, which may contain the nation's richest natural gas deposits.Burd cites a different CATF report that appears to demonstrate that while West Virginia's natural gas production increased between 2018 and 2020, greenhouse gas emissions decreased.He claimed that the gas and oil industries in Appalachia reduced emissions by about 70% as an outcome of the voluntary agreements that the industry has with the Department of Energy and EPA. Burd further said that the company is extremely proud of West Virginia's production of the cleanest natural gas in the entire world.They believed that if given the chance to produce more, they will do more than any other location to reduce emissions.The cited report is being examined by the EPA. The EPA proposed a rule in November 2021 that would substantially lower methane and other harmful air pollution from both existing and new sources in the natural gas and oil industry. This includes air toxins such as benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene. The agency held a three-day public hearing after receiving close to half a million written comments and responses on the proposal. The EPA has created a supplemental proposal that may revisit, improve, or expand on the specifics of the one we released in November after reviewing those comments. In the upcoming weeks, the EPA intends to release the supplemental proposal open for public review and comment.
How fossil fuel firms use Black leaders to ‘deceive’ their communities - Pastor Geoffrey Guns was sceptical when asked to join the community advisory board for a gas pipeline, but decided it was his duty to advocate for the Black communities that would be affected by the fossil fuel expansion project. The Virginia Reliability Project (VRP) is a proposal by the Canadian fossil fuel company behind the Keystone XL pipeline to expand and upgrade gas infrastructure through tribal lands, fragile waterways and underserved neighbourhoods in south-east Virginia. Almost 50% of the population along the VRP route live below the poverty line and more than half are people of colour. TC Energy claims the expansion will create thousands of local jobs and that community engagement is core to the company’s mission. For this reason, Guns, a senior pastor at the Second Calvary Baptist church in Norfolk, joined the advisory board along with several other local Black religious leaders. “If they’re asking us to rubber-stamp this, then there should be economic benefits for Black folks and minorities. But all we heard was talk without any actual commitment to equity in contracts for minorities,” said Guns. On the VRP website, under a tab labelled community voices, TC Energy lists endorsements from influential figures, including Black state-elected officials who praise the economic benefits promised by the company for communities of colour. Several of the community voices received financial contributions from the company and its registered lobbying firm, which is legal but not mentioned. It’s not the first time fossil fuel companies have looked to influential Black leaders to smooth the way for polluting oil and gas projects that disproportionately affect people of colour, Indigenous communities and low-income neighbourhoods.The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), the historic civil rights organisation which fights for equal access to housing, voting rights and education, has published a list of common tactics used by the fossil fuel industry to manipulate communities, which often exacerbate climate injustices.The NAACP’s “fossil fueled foolery” primer warns people to be vigilant of companies that co-opt local leaders and organisations that misrepresent the interests and opinions of communities. It’s also common for oil and gas companies to finance political campaigns and pressure elected officials to garner their support.The NAACP acted after some of its local chapters, which operate with significant autonomy, were exposed supporting power plants and pipelines.The VRP is no exception.Emails seen by the Guardian show that James Minor, president of the NAACP’s Richmond chapter, lobbied on behalf of TC Energy, asking local politicians to sign ghostwritten letters supporting the pipeline expansion in the months before the application was submitted to a federal regulator.Minor is also one of eight voting members on the Virginia Marine Resources Commission – the state agency responsible for issuing water permits, which the project requires. In June, he voted in favor of a separate TC Energy permit request before the permitting commission.Minor, who is employed by the city of Richmond, wrote messages from a private email address, opening with “hello from team VRP” - the acronym for the Virginia Reliability Project. “Recently, we posted new community benefit overview documents … Please take a look and consider sharing with your networks,” said one email, obtained using the Freedom of Information Act.“This is a blatant conflict of interest and what seems to be an extremely troubling attempt by TC Energy to tilt the environmental review of the project in its favor,” said Itai Vardi, research manager at the Energy and Policy Institute (EPI), a fossil fuel industry watchdog group, which shared the emails with the Guardian. Minor denies any conflict.Similar emails were sent to separate elected officials by TC Energy consultant Esmel Meeks, a local Black political consultant who previously headed a now defunct group funded by the oil and gas trade association American Petroleum Institute. Meeks, who recruited Pastor Guns to the advisory board, said it was a “sincere effort to gather honest feedback about the project”.
US Gas Exports Primed to Soar, but Constrained Appalachia Can't Meet the Moment —Infrastructure constraints in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays are not just keeping the natural gas in, they are keeping capital out, Kevin Little, senior vice president for natural gas at Macquarie Energy, said at Hart Energy’s recent America’s Natural Gas conference. “The regulatory burdens are creating a dislocation in the markets,” Little said. “Whereas, the Marcellus and Utica led in the terms of growth through 2019, now, we’re expecting this to shift down to Texas-Louisiana—specifically, in the immediate term, Haynesville. “You’re just seeing a shift in capital away from Marcellus and Utica down to the Gulf Coast.” Good for the Gulf Coast in terms of its gas industry expansion, but not so good for Appalachia or, really, for anybody. U.S. LNG export capacity is primed to ramp up and the largest, most economic natural gas basin is left out of the action, unable to increase production to meet the higher demand. The result will be higher prices both domestically and internationally, adding to the pressure on struggling European economies. Agreements to supply LNG, already on the rise, accelerated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. But the growth in U.S. export capacity really starts when the Golden Pass terminal comes online in 2024, Little said, and peaks in 2026. The U.S. exports about 11 Bcf/d of gas at the moment, he said, a figure that will jump to 13 Bcf/d when Freeport LNG is able to fully return to service. Maquarie forecasts an expansion to 25 Bcf/d by the end of 2027. U.S. gas production, now around 100 Bcf/d, will creep up to 103 Bcf/d by the end of the year and rise to 110 Bcf/d by the end of 2023, Little said. The problem, he said, is the shift in production growth. The Haynesville is showing strong production growth, as is the Permian Basin from associated gas, an uptick in gas drilling in the Eagle Ford and even a small resurgence in the Barnett. There are expectations of growth in the Midcontinent, too. Just not in the Marcellus and Utica. The culprit is the old pipeline constraints bugaboo. More production can’t come online until more takeaway comes online and more takeaway won’t come online because states in the Northeast simply won’t allow it. It wasn’t always this way. “It really wasn’t that long ago—2018-2019—we built a significant amount of new pipeline capacity coming out of the Northeast,” Little said. “In just three years, we built 12 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity and several of them were major projects, including the Rover pipeline, Nexus, Atlantic Sunrise and then the Leach Xpress and Gulf XPress.” At the time, there were fears of an overbuild in the Marcellus and Utica, but the plays proved the markets wrong very quickly. Production grew by more than 9 Bcf/d in 2018-2019, easily backfilling all of the new capacity. And from the gas production boom in the Northeast sprung the first wave of Gulf Coast LNG expansion (debut of Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG, construction of Cameron LNG and Freeport LNG facilities). Then, up north, things went south. Pushback against midstream infrastructure took the form of states like New York and New Jersey used Section 401 of the Clean Water Act to delay or deny certification of projects like the Constitution pipeline and Northeast Supply Enhancement project. CPV Valley Energy’s ultimately successful effort to build an eight-mile lateral pipe took years in court and massive cost overruns. Even wins at the Supreme Court became Pyrrhic victories when the Atlantic Coast and Penn East pipelines were canceled. “If you have to get an act of Congress to get your permits to build a pipeline, if you’ve got to go to the Supreme Court and you still can’t build a pipeline, this is not a great environment to build midstream infrastructure,”
Chicago may end natural gas hookups for new homes, businesses - As Chicagoans maneuver around torn-up streets and sidewalks while utility crews install new underground gas pipelines, City Hall announced a climate-fighting plan Thursday that envisions the end of fossil fuel hookups to homes and buildings. Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration announced more than two dozen recommendations from outside advisers representing advocacy, business and labor interests to cut emissions from homes and buildings that add to the climate crisis. Among the recommendations, Chicago would require new residential or commercial construction to be built without any gas or other fossil fuel-burning equipment, such as heating systems or appliances. A “fossil fuel mitigation fee” would be added to construction that chooses to use gas. That proposal is being made even as utility Peoples Gas is spending billions of dollars to lay hundreds of miles of new underground pipes across the city and plans to do so through 2040. In a statement, the utility said it is “reviewing the report and believe the mission of the [city advisory group] is well intended.” The utility is exploring its own plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the statement added. “It’s clearly pointing toward a future where Chicago is not on the gas system, and that’s good. It’s where we want to go,” said Abe Scarr, a member of the city’s advisory group and director of public interest advocacy organization Illinois PIRG. Many of the recommendations would need to be put into new policy goals by Lightfoot, but some can be acted on relatively soon thanks to millions of dollars in federal funding largely from the COVID-19 stimulus package last year, said Angela Tovar, the city’s chief sustainability officer. Buildings account for more than two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago, Tovar added, noting the urgency to act.
Natural Gas Futures Tumble Below Key $6.50 Threshold on Improving Winter Supply Outlook - Spot gas prices posted a mix of moderate gains and losses, with the exception of the Northeast, where next-day gas was sharply higher. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. edged up 7.5 cents to $5.550. With production near 100 Bcf/d and little in the way of weather demand to significantly move the price needle, bulls had a hard time maintaining the early price gains they achieved early in Monday’s trading session. Weather models over the weekend were a little chillier with a mid-October cold front sliding into the northern United States, as was expected. However, even with the added projected demand, the pattern was far from bullish, just not as bearish as the data showed Friday, according to NatGasWeather. The Global Forecast System’s midday run, meanwhile, trended slightly warmer by not seeing quite as chilly the weather system advancing into the Midwest and Northeast early next week, the forecaster said. Until then, demand is expected to be light through Thursday before a cool shot exits the Northern Plains and tracks across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast Friday-Sunday for a minor bump in national demand. A reinforcing cool shot is set to follow but is now warmer based on the latest models. In fact, much of the weather data continues to favor mostly mild weather through the Oct. 20-23 period, although cooler trends could show up in time to add several total degree days/Bcf in demand, according to NatGasWeather. For at least a few more weeks, it appears that fundamentals point to continued weakness in the gas market. In addition to the mostly moderate weather pattern in place, production has generally topped 100 Bcf/d after fluctuating in the mid- to high 90s Bcf/d throughout the summer. The additional output has made its way into underground storage, which had struggled for much of the injection season to close the gap to the five-year average.
U.S. natgas rises 3% on technical bounce, higher demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 3% on Tuesday from a near three-month low in the prior session on a technical bounce, forecasts for higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and renewed concerns about a possible rail strike. A rail strike could boost demand for gas by threatening coal supplies to power plants. A union representing employees who build and maintain tracks said its members rejected the tentative contract deal with a committee representing major U.S. freight railroads. Coal fuels about 20% of U.S. power generation. About two-thirds of the nation's coal-fired power plants receive their coal by rail. When coal or any other fuel is not available for power generation, energy firms usually burn more gas to produce power. Gas already provides about 37% of U.S. electricity. That gas price increase came despite near record output and forecasts for continued milder-than-normal weather that will allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Recent drops in demand from storm-related power outages and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have also weighed on gas prices. Hurricane Ian left more than 4 million homes and businesses in Florida and 1.1 million in North and South Carolina without power after hitting Florida in late September. It took utilities in Florida more than a week to restore power to some customers in the hardest hit areas. Gas demand was also reduced by outages at LNG export plants, including Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Cove Point in Maryland for about three weeks of planned work starting Oct. 1 and Freeport LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Front-month gas futures rose 16.1 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $6.596 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). On Monday, the contract closed at $6.435, its lowest since July 12. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states have risen to 100.1 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 92.6 bcfd this week to 96.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
U.S. natgas falls 2% to near 3-month low on record output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% to a near three-month low on Wednesday on record output and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. That price drop came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown of its 0.8-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for about three weeks of planned maintenance on Oct. 1 and the ongoing shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. Front-month gas futures fell 16.1 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $6.435 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That matched the close on Oct. 10, which was the lowest settle since July 12. In a bet on cold weather next winter, traders boosted the premium of futures for November 2023 over October to 37 cents, its fifth record high in a row. U.S. futures are up about 73% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $45 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia. Prices in Europe fell to a three-month low of $44.25 on Oct. 7 as strong LNG imports boosted the amount of gas in storage in northwest countries to over 90% of capacity. That compares with an all-time high of $90.91 on Aug. 25. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100.1 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 92.5 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 10.9 bcfd so far in October from 11.5 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. So far this year, most U.S. LNG has gone to countries in Europe as they wean themselves off Russian energy.
Natural Gas Futures Shrug off EIA Data, Jump 30 Cents Thursday - Weeks away from the official start of the winter season in the natural gas market, futures traders brushed off the latest government inventory data in favor of coming cold and, perhaps, in sympathy with higher commodity markets. The November Nymex natural gas futures contract settled Thursday at $6.741/MMBtu, up 30.6 cents on the day. December futures rose 28.7 cents to $7.053. Natural gas cash prices retreated across the United States but were stronger north of the border in Canada. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 26.0 cents to $5.535. Based on Thursday’s price action along the Nymex futures curve, traders may be getting accustomed to the triple-digit storage builds that have hit the market over the past month and need a little more to get their fire going. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) dropped another whopper on Thursday, reporting a 125 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 7 that easily surpassed both the 86 Bcf year-earlier injection and the five-year 82 Bcf build average. The build, though, was right in line with the median of estimates ahead of the EIA report and came in far below the highest projection for a 137 Bcf injection. Price action was muted soon after the report, with a modest bump possibly indicating the market was happy the injection wasn’t closer to the high end, according to NatGasWeather’s Rhett Milne, meteorologist. Nevertheless, the storage data was overwhelmingly bearish. As important, the South Central region, which had trailed all others in refilling, injected a massive 55 Bcf into storage and chopped in half the deficit to the five-year average, according to EIA. The build included a 28 Bcf addition to salt stocks and a 26 Bcf addition to nonsalts. The Midwest and East followed with injections of 36 Bcf and 26 Bcf, respectively, EIA said. Mountain region stocks increased by 6 Bcf. Pacific inventories rose by 2 Bcf. Total working gas in storage rose to 3,231 Bcf as of Oct. 7, which is 126 Bcf below year-earlier levels and 221 Bcf below the five-year average, according to EIA. Looking ahead to the agency’s next report, participants on the online energy chat Enelyst said another 100-plus Bcf/d injection was likely, though estimates were around 105 Bcf/d given some pockets of chilly air in the Midwest and East Coast this week. Higher wind generation week/week also needs to be considered, according to Enelyst’s Het Shah, managing director. “Wind was brutally low for the week ending Oct. 7,” he said. Meanwhile, production was slightly lower at minus 0.3 Bcf/d, while residential/commercial demand was up 1.5 Bcf/d, power generation was up 0.3 Bcf/d and Canadian imports were down 0.5 Bcf/d, according to Shah. Given all those stats, he pegged the next storage injection at 109 Bcf.
U.S. natural gas futures decline for 8th week on record output | BOE Report - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a near three-month low on Friday as record output and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports allowed utilities to inject much bigger than normal amounts of gas into storage for the winter over the past month. That put the contract down for an eighth week in a row for the first time since February 2001. Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown of its 0.8-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for about three weeks of planned maintenance on Oct. 1 and the continuing shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Texas for unplanned work after an explosion on June 8. There are at least three vessels heading to Freeport, according to Refinitiv data, including Prism Brilliance (expected to arrive Oct. 18), Prism Diversity (Oct. 27) and Seapeak Methane (Nov. 22), prompting some traders to believe Freeport will return in November. Others in the market, however, believe the plant's return will be delayed. Officials at Freeport said they remain on track to return the plant in November. Front-month gas futures fell 28.8 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $6.453 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), close to the three-month low of $6.435 settles on Oct. 10 and Oct. 12. For the week, the contract was down about 4%, bringing its losses over eight weeks to around 35%. Despite the weeks of declines, U.S. futures were up still about 74% so far this year as soaring global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $40 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia. That puts European forwards down about 8% and on track for their lowest close since June 28 as strong LNG imports have boosted the amount of gas in storage in countries in the northwest part of the continent to healthy levels above 90% of capacity. European prices hit an all-time high of $90.91 on Aug. 25. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.9 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 92.8 bcfd this week to 99.3 bcfd next week with the coming of colder weather before sliding to 97.2 bcfd in two weeks with the return of milder temperatures. The forecasts for this week and next week were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 10.9 bcfd so far in October from 11.5 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.
Experts: U.S. LNG Growth Could Slow Next Year -While American LNG is poised for long-term growth, next year could see a slowing of domestic natural gas demand due as infrastructure and expansion plans experience limitations, Natural Gas Intelligence reports, citing experts on the sidelines of a Gulf Coast energy forum.Central for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG) executive director Charlie Riedl told NGI that while LNG dynamics are expected to accelerate this decade, buoyed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, facility and pipeline expansion will be “mission critical”, with a focus on connecting the Permian Basin and the Haynesville Basin to LNG export terminals.Experts note that while new projects are underway, the timing will see a lag.The Freeport LNG export facility continues to be out until at least early November after a fire in June. When it does restart, it would return some 2 billion cubic feet per day to the market. Aside from that, however, experts told NGI that no other expansions of export capability are on the books for two years, with Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG–in cooperation with QatarEnergy–not slated for initial startup until 2024.Right now, the market is gearing up for a slight pause as LNG expansion catches up with the longer-term prospects here.Speaking on the sidelines of the three-day forum, Easy Daley Analytics’ Rob Wilson told NGI that Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is set to increase gradually through 2025, but that slower near-term expansion growth could impact natural gas producers as new projects lag behind market dynamics.“I think it will be March and April, when storage ramps up, and we see levels reach significantly above historical averages,” Wilson told NGI.For 2023, Wilson predicts that while demand from Asia and Europe will continue to be high, U.S. natural gas producers will see lower prices as the market waits for demand to catch up with supply.
Michigan Environmental Groups Oppose Oil Pipeline Project Under Great Lakes - The long-running feud between Canadian energy giant Enbridge and a coalition of Michigan environmentalists and tribal nations has reached another milestone. Enbridge is proposing to build a tunnel to carry an oil pipeline under the Straits of Mackinac, which connects Lake Michigan with Lake Huron. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently held three “scoping” meetings as part of evaluating the project’s environmental impact. Sean McBrearty, campaign coordinator for the environmental group Oil and Water Don’t Mix, said digging a tunnel for an oil pipeline under the Great Lakes is a recipe for disaster. “They’re talking about building this directly under the profile of the existing pipeline,” McBrearty explained. “A tunnel would not only be horribly hazardous to any workers inside the tunnel and to the project, but could potentially even cause an oil spill in the pipeline above it.” Enbridge claimed if the project is halted, fuel prices in the region will soar, but McBrearty noted the company’s own analysts said the effect would be negligible. Enbridge has a history of ecological disasters, including a 2010 spill in Michigan, sending more than a million gallons of crude oil down a 35-mile stretch of the Kalamazoo River. McBrearty argued it is too risky to trust them on the tunnel project. “We’re asking the Army Corps to really take a look at Enbridge’s corporate history,” McBrearty noted. “Which includes the Kalamazoo oil spill, where essentially negligence at Enbridge caused one of the largest inland oil spills in U.S. history.” Enbridge has structured its corporate operations through a network of dozens of U.S. subsidiaries, which McBrearty warned could leave Michiganders holding the bag. “If this pipeline ruptures, if something goes wrong, there’s actually a good chance that Enbridge’s subsidiaries could just go bankrupt,” McBrearty cautioned. “Taxpayers would be left paying for a major oil cleanup in the Great Lakes.” He added the Corps of Engineers has received thousands of comments, most of them opposing Line 5. The agency is accepting public comments through the end of this week, but has not said when the report will be published.
Line 5 foes want 'broad, thorough review' of tunnel project as Army Corps wraps public ... The final public input session for a federal environmental review of the Line 5 tunnel project concluded Thursday evening, with around 100 concerned citizens from Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Canada and more arguing for and against the merits of a new, tunnel-encased Line 5 pipeline replacement.The sentiments for and against the tunnel were split fairly evenly. The majority of pro-tunnel comments came from industry workers, individuals on fixed incomes and those worried about propane and gas prices. Opponents to the project and Line 5 as a whole ranged from tribal citizens to policy experts and environmentally concerned citizens, and urged the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Detroit District to implement the most thorough review possible.Originally scheduled for three hours, the meeting went two hours longer than planned due to a large influx of individuals wishing to speak.The EIS scoping and Section 106 input period will continue through Oct. 14, and those who wish to submit comments regarding the EIS scope may do so by that date either electronically or in written comments.Written comments: Line 5 Tunnel EIS, 16501 Shady Grove Road, P.O. Box 10178, Gaithersburg, MD 20898The meeting — the third of its kind over the last month — is part of USACE’s process of scrutinizing the Canadian pipeline company Enbridge’s proposed project to the highest level of federal environmental review. With public comment open from Aug. 15 and closing on Oct. 14, USACE is seeking input on what should be considered during the course of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) scoping process.An EIS involves a lengthy process, and was not Enbridge’s preferred development as the company had favored a less intensive form of review.After the Detroit District considers the tunnel project’s alternatives, cumulative impacts, geographic context and more under the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) following public comment, the agency will then prepare a draft EIS before embarking on another 60-day comment period expected in fall 2023.The final EIS will then be prepared, after which a minimum of a 30-day waiting period will begin in summer 2024. A record of decision will finally be established in fall 2024 — two years from now.That judgment will determine whether USACE will issue, issue with modification or deny Enbridge’s permit altogether.Meanwhile, the original Line 5 continues to age and attract environmental concern. Built in 1953, the oil pipeline originates in Northwest Wisconsin and continues for 645 miles into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, under the Straits of Mackinac and out into Canada near Port Huron.*Both the current pipeline and its proposed replacement are opposed by all 12 federally recognized tribes in Michigan, in addition to tribes inWisconsin that are fighting the pipeline as it passes through their treaty territory.Indigenous water protectors from tribes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all spoke during the public input session Thursday.“Consultation is not consent and they [the tribes] are saying no,” one participant said.Another participant, climate justice organizer Andy Pearson from Minnesota, said the Detroit District need only look into what’s happened with Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota to know whether to trust the Canadian company.“Let our experience serve as a warning that this company will try to make you believe that they’ve done their due diligence when they have not. A mountain of assurances is not worth much once irreversible damage has been done,” Pearson said.
U.S. judge rejects last challenge to Enbridge's Line 3 - A federal judge has rejected claims by environmental groups and Ojibwe bands that the Army Corps of Engineers failed to adequately review Enbridge's Line 3 pipeline. The controversial 340-mile oil pipeline across Minnesota opened a year ago, but one lawsuit challenging it had yet to be concluded — until Friday. "The court concludes that the Corps complied with its obligations to assess the environmental consequences associated with its permits to Enbridge," wrote Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly of the U.S District Court for the District of Columbia. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC), the state's primary pipeline regulator, approved Line 3 in early 2020. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) approved a state water permit later that year. Pipeline opponents appealed those decisions. But state courts rejected their challenges in 2021, while the pipeline was being constructed. "Like Minnesota state government regulators, agencies, our courts and so-called leaders, the federal court has again failed Indian people and Minnesota's most pristine waterways and landscapes," wrote Winona LaDuke, head of the indigenous environmental group Honor the Earth, in a statement. Enbridge, in statement, said it was pleased with the latest court decision. The company said the decision "acknowledges the thorough, inclusive and science-based review of the Line 3 Replacement Project by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers." It also cited public participation and consultation with tribes. The new Line 3 replaced a 1960's Enbridge pipeline that was corroding and operating at only 50 % capacity due to safety concerns. The pipeline transports a particularly viscous Canadian oil to Enbridge's terminal in Superior, Wis. Pipeline opponents say the new Line 3, which partly follows a new route, has opened a new region of Minnesota lakes, streams and wild rice waters to oil spill degradation, as well as exacerbating climate change. The Army Corps issued its water and wetlands permit for pipeline construction in November 2020, allowing Enbridge to drill beneath rivers and to discharge dredged material. Soon thereafter, the Corps was sued by the Red Lake and White Earth bands and three environmental groups: Honor the Earth, Friends of the Headwaters and the Sierra Club. They claimed the Corps did not properly evaluate the pipeline's impact on climate change and that the agency should have conducted its own environmental impact statement (EIS) on Line 3 — instead of relying on an EIS done by the state. Their suit also alleged that the Corps failed to fully assess Line 3's impacts on the tribes' treaty rights to hunt, gather and fish. Judge Kollar-Kotelly rejected all of those contentions. She agreed with the Corps' argument that it regulates only the construction of the pipeline, and therefore has no purview over climate change effects caused by Line 3's operation.
'Strongest Climate Bill Ever' May Increase Oil and Gas Production in New Mexico - While President Joe Biden’s $737 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) aims to address a cornucopia of American ills, arguably its most important aspect is how it jump-starts the country’s fight against climate change. It attacks the country’s carbon emissions from both ends — consumption and production — with one primary tool: money. A lot of money: $369billion, to be exact, much of that devoted to helping people, companies and government agencies buy more things that create less carbon pollution. That has many activists hailing the bill as a historic step forward on climate action, but not everyone is sold on the strategy.“All of these environmental organizations are singing its praise, ‘The strongest climate bill ever passed!’” says Sharon Wilson, a senior field advocate at Earthworks in Texas. “It is also the shittiest climate bill ever passed. Because it is the only climate bill that’s ever passed.”There is only one climate punishment in the IRA: a new Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP) that levies a methane tax on oil and gas producers who exceed strict limits on how much they can emit the potent greenhouse gas. But the program may have the ironic consequence of increasing oil and gas production — and methane emissions — in New Mexico.The MERP allows Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrators to use and enforce state rules when they meet or exceed what is written in the federal regulations. And since New Mexico already has some of the strictest oil field emissions regulations in the country, companies may choose to expand operations there with the clear, well-known regulatory system that is already in place, one that is likely to get a nod from the EPA.But there’s also another, more practical reason why producers may want to go there: While the state has the rules, it hasn’t matched those rules with an increase in oil field monitoring and enforcement, and historically, the EPA hasn’t been a strong enforcer, either.Reducing emissions from the consumer end will certainly, eventually, reduce greenhouse gas levels overall. Yet reducing production-side emissions — which are primarily composed of methane — could have a larger, quicker effect on lowering the country’s greenhouse emissions. As the International Energy Agency wrote earlier this year, “Methane emissions from oil and gas operations must be the first to go.” That’s because methane — the main component of natural gas — is more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping greenhouse gas.
U.S. Oil, Natural Gas Dealmaking Hits Quarterly High with Possible Uptick On Horizon - Upstream mergers and acquisitions (M&A) among U.S. oil and gas companies totaled more than $16 billion in transacted value during the third quarter, the highest quarterly tally so far this year, according to Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR).Overall though, M&A activity has been sluggish, particularly in the Permian Basin, amid price volatility and undervaluation of exploration and production (E&P) company stocks, said EIR, a subsidiary of Enverus.“While the business environment for E&Ps has been mostly great in 2022, that hasn’t translated to a bonanza of dealmaking,” said EIR director Andrew Dittmar. “Companies are using the cash generated by high commodity prices to pay down debt and reward shareholders rather than seeking out acquisitions. And when companies do make offers on assets, the bids are often disappointing to potential sellers.”Dittmar added, “To reach $16 billion of M&A value in 3Q2022 required not only a couple more typical operated shale deals, but also transactions like a public mineral company merger and the largest California deal in decades.” The largest deal of the quarter was EQT Corp.’s $5.2 billion purchase of THQ Appalachia I LLC (Tug Hill) and THQ-XcL Holdings I LLC from Quantum Energy Partners. “While the deal saw most of its value ascribed to existing production and midstream assets, it also included around 300 untapped drilling locations targeting the Marcellus and Utica” shales, said the EIR team.Devon Energy Corp. followed a similar strategy with its $1.8 billion acquisition of Eagle Ford Shale pure-play Validus Energy. The purchase from Pontem Energy Capital was “mostly for the value of its current production while adding incremental inventory,” the EIR team said.The Validus deal was the largest in the Eagle Ford since 2018. Like EQT’s purchase of Tug Hill, “yet another example of a private equity company finding an exit,” researchers said.Dittmar said investors “still seem skeptical of public company M&A and are holding management to high standards on deals…Investors want acquisitions priced favorably relative to a buyer’s stock on key return metrics like free cash flow yield to give an immediate uplift to dividends and share buybacks.” He added, “Given how cheaply public E&Ps are trading, it can be a tall order to strike deals that are even more favorably valued than a buyer’s stock. That also limits how much money a buyer can pay for undeveloped locations that may not generate a return until drilled years later.” Other major deals during the quarter included the nearly $4 billion sale of Aera Energy, a venerable California joint venture between Shell plc and ExxonMobil, to Germany’s IKAV. The third quarter also saw the nearly $2 billion acquisition of Brigham Minerals by Sitio Royalties.
Enverus: Third-Quarter US Upstream M&A Tops $16 Billion - JPT - The third quarter of 2022 showed that not all roads lead to the Permian Basin when it comes to mergers and acquisitions (M&A), according to a recent report by Calgary-based analytics firm Enverus Intelligence Research. US upstream M&A deals reached more than $16 billion in transacted value in the quarter, the best showing of 2022, Enverus said, adding that it was achieved despite the oil and gas price volatility, lack of market recognition of E&P stocks, and a “surprising dearth of deals in the usually prolific Permian Basin. The $16 billion third quarter M&A is down from $18.6 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Andrew Dittmar, director at Enverus Intelligence Research, noted that rather than seek out acquisitions, companies are using the cash generated by high commodity prices to pay down debt and reward shareholders. “And when companies do make offers on assets, the bids are often disappointing to potential sellers. To reach $16 billion of M&A value in 3Q22 required not only a couple more typical operated shale deals, but also transactions like a public mineral company merger and the largest California deal in decades,” he said. The largest acquisition of the quarter was US independent EQT’s purchase of West Virginia producer Tug Hill and associated XcL Midstream, both backed by Quantum Energy Partners, for $5.2 billion. In addition to picking up existing production and midstream assets, EQT with the transaction picked up around 300 untapped drilling locations in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. EQT’s purchase of Tug Hill and XcLMidstream is the largest Appalachian deal since its $6.7 billion acquisition of Rice Energy in 2017, helping to drive M&A in the Eastern region to a 5-year high, according to Enverus. Devon Energy’s acquisition of the Pontem Energy Capital’s Validus Energy for $1.8 billion was the largest in the Eagle Ford play since 2018. According to Enverus, the purchase, along with the Tug Hill deal, is yet another example of a private-equity company finding an exit. Both EQT and Devon purchased production-centric deals delivering free cash flow yields of around 30%, making the transactions immediately accretive to their distribution programs. “Investors still seem skeptical of public company M&A and are holding management to high standards on deals. Investors want acquisitions priced favorably relative to a buyer’s stock on key return metrics like free cash flow yield to give an immediate uplift to dividends and share buybacks,” said Dittmar. “Given how cheaply public E&Ps are trading, it can be a tall order to strike deals that are even more favorably valued than a buyer’s stock. That also limits how much money a buyer can pay for undeveloped locations that may not generate a return until drilled years later.” A major contributor to the $16 billion of third-quarter M&A was even further from the usual flow of upstream deals in one of the most mature and regulatory- challenging oil regions of the country. The sale of Aera Energy, a joint venture between Shell and Exxon in California, to Germany-based IKAV for nearly $4 billion ended those companies’ historic involvement in the state’s petroleum business, according to Enverus. The first merger between public mineral and royalty companies rounds out the third-quarter deals.The nearly $2 billion acquisition of Brigham Minerals by Sitio Royalties unites two companies with similar market positioning, outlooks, and valuations that were positioned to be rivals. “These two companies were poised to go head-to-head for the best M&A opportunities driving up prices,” noted Dittmar. “Instead, they will now have the power of a larger platform in the competitive minerals space.”
U.S. Oilfield Services Employment Increases in September, Though Pace of Hiring Slows - Employment in the U.S. oilfield services and equipment sector rose by an estimated 2,566 jobs to 640,767 in September after adjustments to August numbers, according to an Energy Workforce & Technology Council analysis of federal data. The advance continued a trend as the industry rebounds from the slowdown imposed in 2020 by the coronavirus pandemic. But the pace of gains in the sector did slow, as did job growth overall last month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).“As the energy services sector continues to rebuild the workforce from pandemic losses, the September increases are encouraging in the face of lower job increases across the country,” said council CEO Leslie Beyer.Initial BLS data had shown that oilfield services and equipment sector employment rose by 6,865 jobs to 648,914 in August. However, following new revisions, the August adjusted number was 638,201. Across all sectors, employers added 263,000 jobs in September. That was down from a 315,000 gain in August and marked a second-consecutive monthly easing.Still, gains in September put OFS employment at the highest level since September 2021, pushing the sector toward the 706,528 total reached in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus-imposed lockdowns that crippled demand that year.“The industry is producing at almost pre-pandemic levels,” Beyer said.The U.S. oil and gas industry shed more than 160,000 direct jobs in 2020, with nearly half of those losses coming in Texas amid the fallout of the pandemic, an assessment of the sector by Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association showed.The pandemic jolted the industry in the spring of 2020, when government lockdowns ordered to slow the spread of the virus froze travel and choked off demand for transportation fuels made from oil. Crude prices plummeted and producers quickly curtailed output in response. Production declines necessitated spending cuts and layoffs that resulted in a notably smaller workforce.U.S. crude production averaged 11.3 million b/d in 2020, down 1.0 million b/d from 2019, a result of well curtailment and lower drilling, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Output had reached a record of 13.1 million b/d in early 2020, just prior to the pandemic’s arrival in North America. The industry bounced back before the end of 2021 and continued to recover ground this year.U.S. production climbed to a 2022 peak of 12.2 million b/d during the past summer and held around 12.0 million b/d in September, according to EIA.
Oil Activity Gains Push U.S. Drilling Numbers Higher in Updated BKR Count - Driven by gains in the oil patch, the U.S. rig count jumped seven units higher to 769 for the week ended Friday (Oct. 14), according to the latest tally from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Changes domestically included an eight-rig increase in oil-directed rigs, partially offset by a one-rig decline in natural gas-directed drilling. Six rigs were added on land in the United States, with one rig added in the Gulf of Mexico. Horizontal drilling increased by seven units, while directional and vertical drilling totals were unchanged for the week. The 769 active U.S. rigs as of Friday are up from 543 rigs running in the year-earlier period, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. The Canadian rig count rose one unit to end the week at 216, up from 168 in the year-earlier period, according to BKR. Changes there included a two-rig increase in oil-directed drilling, partially offset by a decline of one natural gas-directed rig. Looking at changes by major drilling region, the gassy Utica Shale picked up two rigs for the period, while two rigs exited the Arkoma Woodford. The Ardmore Woodford, Marcellus Shale, Permian Basin and Williston Basin each added one rig for the period, while the Eagle Ford Shale dropped one rig from its total. Counting by state, Texas saw an overall increase of five rigs week/week, countered by a four-rig decline in New Mexico’s latest tally. Wyoming added three rigs, while Ohio added two. Louisiana and Pennsylvania each added a rig to their respective totals; Alaska and Colorado each dropped a rig, the BKR data show. Oil and natural gas permitting climbed in September from August by 26% and rose nearly 60% from a year ago, ending the third quarter on a positive note, according to recent analysis from Evercore ISI. Analysts said there were 809 more requests to drill in September month/month. The Permian led the way, rebounding by 47% from August, with 538 more requests. “September’s permit count increased to 3,915, up 26% from August’s total of 3,106,” Evercore analysts noted. “This represents a 60% increase from September 2021’s numbers, a 223% jump from 2020’s and a 11% increase from 2019’s levels.”
Has U.S. DUC Count Bottomed? Growth Said Possible in 2023 -- After tumbling by more than half since 2020, the number of drilled but uncompleted wells (aka DUCs) may have hit a bottom late this summer, but some growth could materialize into 2023, according to the latest tally by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA’s September Drilling Productivity Report showed that after reaching more than 8,800 in the second quarter of 2020, the number of DUCs steadily declined by an average of 227 DUCs/month during 2021 and by 82 per /month during 2022. The Permian Basin has led all other regions in reducing the DUC count, while the Appalachian Basin also has seen a significant decrease. “The decline in DUCs in most major U.S. onshore oil- and natural gas-producing regions indicates that more wells are being completed and fewer new wells are being drilled,” said EIA analysts Jozef Lieskovsky and Troy Cook in a recent note. [Want today’s Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and Chicago Citygate prices? Check out NGI’s daily natural gas price snapshot now.] The EIA researchers pointed out that oil and natural gas producers since 2020 have shifted their spending to existing operations because of continued market uncertainty and limited access to new investment capital. As such, the number of completed wells has risen from a low of 253 in June 2020 to 969 in August. The DUC count, meanwhile, slid to 4,283 in August, according to EIA. This is the lowest number recorded since the agency began estimating DUC inventories in October 2013. Notably, however, the August tally included an increase of 16 DUCs month/month. While this was the smallest addition since July 2020, the increase could signal a turning point in producer behavior. The EIA said the Haynesville Shale has been the only region to see a slight increase in the number of DUCs. Wells in the gassy play have climbed by 100 since 2Q2020 because of growth in gas demand from new LNG facilities along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, drilling for both oil- and natural gas-directed wells has increased in the United States this year, which has slowed the DUC decline and may lead to a rebound in DUC inventory ahead. Baker Hughes Co. data shows gas-directed rigs total 160 as of Sept. 30, an increase of 53 so far this year. Oil-directed rigs total 602, up 481. “It’s just a matter of when, not if,” East Daley Analytics’ Rob Wilson, vice president of analytics, told NGI. Wilson attributed the projected rise in the number of DUCs to a function of gas production growth exceeding demand coming online. He noted that liquefied natural gas demand is expected to rise by 3 Bcf/d once Cove Point returns from a planned maintenance outage, Freeport resumes operations following a shut-in since early June and Calcasieu Pass commences full operations at its facility. “Prices and rig activity justify supply growth well in excess of that demand growth, filling storage quicker than the market expects,” Wilson said. “We have already seen Henry Hub futures strip come down materially over the past month, and we think there’s more downside, which will incentivize gas-focused producers to keep unhedged growth volumes in the ground as a secondary form of storage.” Wilson said while it’s not ideal for producers to turn to DUCs instead of selling their supply into the market, “it’s better sometimes to keep growth in ground and sell at a higher price when LNG demand calls for it.”
Biden is blamed for downturn in new oil drilling, but fossil fuel companies are the ones hitting pause -- OPEC+’s decision this week to slash oil production – and now the looming threat of higher gas prices – has pushed Republican rhetoric into familiar territory: President Joe Biden’s green policies are making Americans pay more at the pump. Republicans in Congress have slammed Biden’s attempts since he took office to curb new oil drilling in the US and grow the country’s clean energy infrastructure. A fresh volley of criticism came after this week’s OPEC+ move. In an interview with Fox Business, Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming said the Biden administration is “attacking American energy.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said in a statement Wednesday that the administration must “reverse course and work with our energy producers, instead of against them” to lower prices at the pump.But energy experts tell CNN recent attempts to open up new parts of the US to oil drilling have failed mainly because of the lack of interest from oil companies themselves, rather than Biden’s “green” policies.New exploration for oil and gas has fallen sharply worldwide this year. Still bruised by an oil-price crash prolonged by the Covid pandemic, fossil fuel companies are now focusing on areas they know will make money, and far less on exploring for new locations to drill.“I would say it’s 60% financial markets are telling them ‘no,’” said Robert McNally, president of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and an energy adviser to former President George W. Bush. “It’s 30% they’re still fearful of another bust, and then 10%, ‘the politicians, they’re not going to make it easy for me.’”There is perhaps no better evidence of this shift than in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which for decades had been a Republican focus for new oil drilling. Congressional Republicans successfully reopened ANWR to oil drilling in a 2017 bill, but when the lease sale happened in the final days of the Trump administration, only three companies offered bids – one of which was Alaska’s state-owned energy corporation. The other companies that bid ended up canceling their leases this year.The ANWR sale “was a total bust,” said Erik Grafe, an attorney for environmental law firm Earthjustice. “There were no oil majors who bid on leases.” In May, the Biden administration canceled an offshore drilling lease sale in Alaska’s Cook Inlet, owing to “lack of industry interest.” The Inflation Reduction Act will force the Interior Department to offer it again by the end of the year, but there aren’t expected to be many – if any – bids on it.Oil and gas companies around the world are driving this trend as they approach new oil and gas exploration tepidly. Total acreage of new oil and gas leases has fallen to “near all-time lows,” according to an analysis from Norwegian energy firm Rystad.Rystad expects a total of 44 global lease sales to be completed in 2022, the lowest level since 2000. As of August, 21 lease sales were completed globally, just half of what was held in the same period the previous year.
Munich Re to stop its backing for new oil, gas fields – — (AP) — Munich Re, one of the world's biggest insurance companies, said Thursday that it will stop backing new oil and gas fields beginning next April. The company said it will also no longer invest in or insure new oil pipelines and power plants that weren't already under construction by Dec. 31, 2022. Munich Re said the moves were part of its effort to reduce the harmful impact its business has on the environment. The burning of oil and gas is one of the main sources of greenhouses gases fueling climate change. Munich Re provides so-called reinsurance contracts that help other insurers spread risks. It also invests the insurance premiums it receives from customers and third-party assets, making it a major institutional investor.
Crude oil spills into Mountrail County (KXNET) –Energy company Phillips 66 has informed the ND Department of Environmental Quality (NDDEQ) of a recent crude oil spill occurring in Mountrail County. According to Phillips 66, the incident occurred in a facility about one mile southwest of Palermo on Monday, October 10. Their initial report states that 286 barrels of crude oil (approximately 12,012 gallons) were spilled, with an unknown amount entering a wetland within the area. Personnel from NDDEQ are currently inspecting the site and will continue to monitor the situation. The cause of the spill has not yet been identified.
With fracking promising a quick energy boost, can Colombia say no? - “For the first time ever, there is a government that is against fracking,” says Amarilys Llanos Navarro. An activist and lawyer with the Cesar Without Fracking and Gas Movement, an anti-extractivist movement in Colombia’s northern department of Cesar, is referring to Gustavo Petro, who took office as president in August and has vowed to ban fracking. Anti-fracking legislation has never managed to pass Colombia’s parliament. But in August, several NGOs put forward a bill prohibiting fracking across the country, including controversial pilot projects testing the feasibility of fracking, shale gas and tar sands extraction. With the change in government and broad support against extractivism, Navarro says she’s hopeful that this time the bill will pass. Fracking first came to prominence in Colombia in 2014, when the government of Juan Manuel Santos introduced regulations to promote commercial production. The Colombia Free of Fracking Alliance (ACLF), a civil society movement of about 100 organizations, including Navarro’s, has been campaigning against the practice since 2016. “The argument that mining generates employment is not true,” Navarro says. Fracking is now promising the same things as coal mines did 30 years ago in her home department of Cesar, she tells Mongabay. But while Cesar has the highest coal production in the country, contributing to about 2% of national GDP, it remains the fourth-poorest of Colombia’s 32 departments, with the second-highest unemployment rate. “These are extremely poor territories where the promise of development has not arrived and where the social and environmental impacts associated with extractives have [taken] a heavy toll,” Navarro says. Fracking has already been banned in several countries like Australia, France, Germany, and Spain. Petro says fracking isn’t viable in Colombia because of its environmental impacts, and adds his government plans to accelerate the transition to clean energies.
Britons set for huge £1,000 boost as fracking companies offer rewards - Millions of Britons could be set for a massive boost as under new plans, companies looking to harness shale gas in the UK through fracking, could offer households £1,000 to allow for the practice to take place in their neighbourhood. Under plans backed by the Government, drilling companies could soon go door to door in local communities to offer financial benefits to allow fracking in the region. Upon becoming Prime Minister in September, Liz Truss announced an end to the ban on shale gas extraction, or fracking, and vowed to only allow it in communities that supported the controversial practice. Currently, for fracking companies to conduct exploratory drilling activity, they would need at least 50 percent community support. Thus under current proposals, fracking companies are looking to convince residents to back the energy extraction process by going door-to-door and offering cash incentives. If they acquire enough votes in their favour, the companies will begin exploration, following which if they find that shale gas can be extracted, the companies would then offer those who own the land under which fracking takes place royalties to share in the proceeds, according to the Telegraph. The two-step idea is currently being explored in Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, which is scrambling to boost the UK's energy security and is looking to increase its domestic gas supply through increased North Sea drilling and bringing back fracking. Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg said: "In light of Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine and weaponisation of energy, strengthening our energy security is an absolute priority, and - as the prime minister said - we are going to ensure the UK is a net energy exporter by 2040.
Cash For Fracking: UK Households May Receive Payouts For Allowing Fracking - UK households could soon receive cash payouts for allowing fracking in their neighborhoods, media reported on Monday. The UK may have lifted its long-running ban on fracking last month, but its fracking industry still has one big hurdle that it must overcome: local opposition. Fracking has been criticized for its reported ties to earthquakes and other environmental damage, and has fallen out of favor. The practice’s sullied reputation has led to its ban in several countries, including France, Germany, Spain, and until recently, the UK. Despite its pariah status, fracking managed to make its way into the hearts and minds of Texans to eventually become the backing behind the United States’ rise to stardom within the global oil and gas industry. Fracking was able to make inroads in the U.S. shale patch precisely because locals benefited from the fracking activity by way of receiving money from the oil and gas taxes that the states collected, which then flowed into the areas that allowed it. That those areas benefited greatly from the fracking dollars cannot be denied. Now Britain, too, is taking a page from the U.S. shale handbook: paying households £1,000 for allowing fracking in their areas. But the money will come directly from drillers rather than from industry tax revenue. Drilling companies could soon go door to door in Britain, according to media reports on Monday, offering money in exchange for fracking support. When the UK’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss removed the fracking ban last month, she did so with one caveat: it would only be allowed in communities that showed at least 50% support. Drillers must now gain half the residents over to the controversial practice in order to commence drilling.
Lancashire has 17 fracking licences as PM lifts ban | Lancashire Telegraph - As the Prime Minister has said about the possibility of fracking returning to Lancashire, there are a number of areas in which more sites could be built. Data has shown that there are 17 fracking licences in the county – including three in East Lancashire. Since her appointment, the new Prime Minister Liz Truss has said she is looking to re-open fracking sites amid the energy crisis. Cuadrilla hydraulic fracturing site at Preston New Road shale gas exploration site in Lancashire A map created by Friends of the Earth that shows were fracking could take place and groups who are against fracking, The red shows the areas where fracking could take place. The purple pins are where anti-fracking groups are located. Credit: Friends of the Earth Currently, there are just two fracking sites in the UK, both of which are in Lancashire, but the Government ordered that these be sealed in 2019. The licences mean that if needed more fracking sites could be constructed in parts of Lancashire. Firm Cuadrilla, which operates the Preston New Road and Elswick sites, had been under instruction to plug its wells in Lancashire by the end of June 2022, but the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) has given them until the end of June 2023 to evaluate options. Cuadrilla hydraulic fracturing site at Preston New Road shale gas exploration site in Lancashire Protesters (left to right) Tina Rothey, Tracey Booker, Julie Daniels with dog Lizzie and Pauline Jones at the fracking site in Preston New Road, Little Plumpton, near Blackpool. Credit: PA Many in Lancashire are heavily opposed to fracking, with locals from the Preston New Road site in Little Plumpton having chained themselves to the fence and protested 24/7 outside the site until the ban. Speaking on BBC Radio Lancashire on September 29, the Prime Minister insisted that fracking would only return with local consent, however many campaigning groups have already been very vocal about their anger at the plans. Lancashire MPs, including Conservative MPs Mark Menzies and Scott Benton, have objected to the plans for a potential return of fracking in the county.
Wirral Council votes unanimously to oppose fracking - Liverpool Echo - Wirral Council has unanimously voted to oppose “all conventional gas extraction” on the peninsula including fracking. The vote was proposed by Councillor Liz Grey, chair of Wirral’s environment committee and was carried at a full council meeting last night, October 10. Cllr Grey's motion said: “There is no scientific evidence that fracking is safe for local communities” and could put Wirral at “risk of earthquakes.” During an earlier debate on protecting Wirral’s green belt from housing, Cllr Allan Brame said the “two issues go hand in hand.” He said: “The Conservatives are trying to pretend that the exploration of fracking is not a threat to Wirral’s green belt when in fact it is.” A licence for oil and gas exploration was granted in 2008 and covers the Dee Estuary and much of south and west Wirral is expected to expire in 2039. Despite comments recently made by three Conservative councillors that said it was a “pathetic attempt at public manipulation” to say Wirral is at risk of fracking, the motion passed unanimously.
Guest post: Who are the real Luddites? – Drill or Drop - The moratorium on fracking is being lifted, therefore I can only assume that Liz Truss and her government no longer wish to remain in power! Have they not noticed the spread of anti-fracking campaigns across the country since 2013? The climate emergency? I speak from experience in Balcombe. When oil and gas come knocking at the door, local communities very quickly discover what bad neighbours they are; from broken promises on noise and traffic to damaged wells. After an avalanche of objections, West Sussex County Council unanimously voted ‘no’ to more work from Angus energy in Balcombe. According to the West Sussex Joint Minerals Plan, it’s clear such exploration should not be happening here. And yet the company can appeal and has. We now wait for the final decision from someone in a government office. If they overturn the council’s refusal it would make a mockery of local democracy. There are already rumblings that fracking sites could be considered Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects, which would bypass normal planning requirements. What community would willingly say yes, after all? Or are government and the industry assuming people will take bribes in exchange for lowering their air quality, supersized trucks rumbling past their schools and being kept awake by the sound of drilling and worry of earthquakes? It makes me sick to think of Jacob’s Rees-Mogg’s oily salesmen going door to door to try and prove they have community consent. We’ve had our fair share of misleading industry spin first-hand in Balcombe. Rees-Mogg calls opponents of fracking Luddites. Tell that to Repower Balcombe, a community energy collective set up in the year that Cuadrilla came here. It has been able to donate thousands to local community lighting projects with its profits. No-one has protested, no air has been sullied with fumes, no-one has been kept up at night and there is no risk of earthquakes. Solar energy has turned profits in Balcombe, not climate changing fossil fuels. Who then are the real luddites trying to resurrect dinosaur technology?
Fracked off: Industry body furious over fracking's net zero snub --The UK’s onshore energy body has slammed the reported omission of fracking from the Government’s net zero review, raising concerns over the consistency of its approach to energy policy. UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG) criticised the decision as “premeditated” and “wholly unjustified.” Charles McAllister, director of policy, told City A.M.: “It is impossible to conduct a fair review of the economic case for Net Zero without examining gas supply out to 2050, and it is therefore obvious that the development of the abundant shale gas resources in the North of England should be a material consideration.” Last month, Tory MP Chris Skidmore was appointed by Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg to lead a four-month review of the UK’s net zero target. He will look to establish the best business and energy security case for historic cuts to carbon emissions over the next three decades. However, the review will not include fracking. The review will instead focus on six elements, including energy security, alongside talking with the wind, solar and nuclear industries, and hearing how small and medium businesses can afford to cut emissions. Skidmore confirmed to The Times last month that he did not consider fracking to be a “significant energy source” that helps the maintain security of supply. He has also warned energy investors that investing in the fracking industry “will leave you with stranded assets,” and is instead urging a push for renewables. His comments and omission of fracking in the review of net zero appear at odds with the Government, which lifted the three-year moratorium in September as it scrambles to shore up domestic energy supplies. Prime Minister Liz Truss has consistently talked up the prospect of fracking and its role in meeting the UK’s energy needs, and has vowed to “get gas flowing within six months.” When lifting the fracking ban, Rees-Mogg argued the UK needed to “explore all avenues available” to boost energy security. He said: “It’s right that we’ve lifted the pause to realise any potential sources of domestic gas.”
European Energy Market Spooked By $1.5 Trillion Liquidity Crisis -As Europe continues to grapple with a daunting energy crisis, European energy markets still face a liquidity disaster, with financial institution exposure to fossil fuels and record levels of margin calls sounding the alarm bells. According to Norway’s Equinor ASA (NYSE: EQNR), European energy trading is under severe strain by margin calls of at least $1.5 trillion, putting extra pressure on governments to provide more liquidity buffers.Aside from fanning inflation, the energy crisis is sucking up capital to guarantee trades amid wild price swings. Energy prices have been fluctuating over such a broad range that many firms are now struggling to manage margin calls, making them demand additional collateral to guarantee trading positions while also forcing traders to secure multi billion-euro credit lines."Liquidity support is going to be needed. This is just capital that is dead and tied up in margin calls. If the companies need to put up that much money, that means liquidity in the market dries up and this is not good for this part of the gas markets," Helge Haugane, Equinor's senior vice president for gas and power, has told Bloomberg. Haugane has noted that derivatives trading is where support will be needed, and added that the $1.5 trillion estimate is actually a conservative one.A report by the Brussels-based NGO Finance Watch reveals that the 60 largest banks in the world have fossil fuel exposures of ~$1.35 trillion with more than half of this total exposure on the books of Asian banks. However, the report notes that the 22 European banks featured in the analysis account for $239 billion of credits doled out to finance fossil fuel activities, with North American banks carrying a comparable amount.Finance Watch has also calculated how much additional capital these banks would need to properly account for the risk of these fossil fuel exposures becoming stranded assets. The report says that although EU and North American banks have about the same amount of fossil fuel exposures, EU banks would need significantly more capital to cover the risk since they are backed by significantly less equity.But will European banks be able to step up to the plate? Finance Watch has argued that banks should back fossil fuel exposures with additional capital. The NGO advocates for a risk-weight of 150%, meaning that every loan given to companies for existing fossil fuel activities would have to be backed by 12% of capital.Back in September, the European Banking Authority (EBA) issued a response to the European Commission regarding current high levels of margin calls and excess volatility in the European energy markets. The European Commission had asked the European Banking Authority (EBA) to consider, among other questions, ‘‘…any other possible measures to minimize the liquidity challenges currently faced by energy companies, including ways to improve the transparency, volatility and predictability of margin calls, in particular intraday.’’To which the ECB’s response was:‘‘The EBA has not identified any potential changes to the prudential framework, which can effectively help alleviate the current situation. This reflects the fact that most of the binding constraints that the EBA has identified stem from existing internal risk management limits and constraints decided upon by banks and/or central clearing counterparties (CCPs) as a result of their risk appetites and sustained flows of business with customers and counterparties. Banks are, however, facing significant liquidity draws--including in USD--in some cases with quite short notice when there are significant market movements. Efforts to provide more transparency around margin calls would, therefore, be welcome.’’ Looks like more European countries might have to go the German way with governments directly stepping in with subsidies and other relief measures, something that has not gone well with many of its neighbors.
Europe's gas prices reach three-month low as consumer demand and industrial production decline - Europe's gas prices have reached a three-month low, as demand from industry and households declines. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's leading trading hub, were on Monday morning hovering around €150 per megawatt-hour, falling at times below that mark, after settling at €156 on Friday. The last time prices fell below the €150 threshold was in early July. It comes as the European Commission announced the EU's gas storage facilities, which are essential for extra demand during winter, were at more than 90% capacity. The relatively good news offers the bloc a much-needed respite in its fight to contain the energy crisis. The latest prices represent a far cry from the €349 all-time record hit in late August, a month that raised the alarm across capitals and fuelled calls for an EU-wide cap on wholesale gas prices. Prices, however, remain exceptionally high: a year ago, the TTF showed gas at €38 per megawatt-hour. Expensive gas prices have a spill-over effect on Europe's entire energy sector. As the most expensive fuel needed to meet all power demands, gas determines the final price of electricity. As gas prices soar, so do electricity bills for households and companies. The EU is exploring different avenues,including targeted price caps and an alternative benchmark to the TTF, in order to lessen the influence of gas prices on electricity, but member states are still divided on what is the most suitable – and less risky– path to follow. The downward trend in gas prices is set to guide the ongoing debate and could serve as an argument for member states, like Germany and the Netherlands, which have advocated for more cautious methods rather than forceful market intervention. "Declining gas prices are due to storages being now almost full and by mild temperatures so far," Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, told Euronews. "Importantly, markets are seeing the demand decline, namely in the industrial sector."
Spanish LNG imports up in September - Spanish LNG imports rose 39 percent in September when compared to the same month last year, according to data by the country’s LNG terminal operator, Enagas. LNG imports totaled about 24.5 TWh in September. Including pipeline imports from Algeria and France, gas imports reached about 35.2 TWh last month, down from some 36 TWh in September last year, Enagas said in its monthly report. Gas demand rose on the back of higher demand for power generation. Demand for power generation rose 54.1 percent to 15.7 TWh in September while conventional demand dropped 38 percent to 12.4 TWh, the LNG terminal operator said. Enagas operates a large network of gas pipelines and has four LNG import plants in Barcelona, Huelva, Cartagena, and Gijon. It also owns 50 percent of the BBG regasification plant in Bilbao and 72.5 percent of the Sagunto plant. The firm is working to launch its El Musel LNG facility in Gijon with the capacity to unload and load 100 carriers per year. Spanish LNG regasification terminals unloaded 27 cargoes last month, eight shipments more compared to the same month last year, according to Enagas. US remains the biggest supplier of LNG to Spain with some 6 TWh or about 17 percent of the total imports in September. US LNG supplies rose slightly from 5.9 TWh last year. Volumes from Nigeria and Russia each reached some 5.3 TWh. Nigeria volumes increased from 2.8 TWh in September last year while Russia did not supply any LNG cargoes to Spain in September last year, Enagas data shows. Other LNG sources in September include Angola, Trinidad an Tobago, Cameroon, Egypt, Qatar, and Indonesia, Enagas said. Spanish LNG terminals loaded about 1 TWh in September, down 45 percent when compared to the last year, while the number of truck loads dropped 37.6 percent to 732, the data shows.
LNG Market Facing Its Most Violent Year Yet -The LNG market is facing its most violent year yet, and there are still winter risks ahead. That’s what BofA Global Research stated in a new report sent to Rigzone, adding that TTF and JKM prices hit record highs of $99/MMbtu and $70/MMbtu in late August and that prices have nearly halved since. “Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe totaled 123mn mt in 2021, but this supply has nearly dried up as of October, save for small volumes to eastern Europe,” BofA Global Research noted in the report. “This lost gas supply accounted for ~30 percent of Europe’s gas demand and seven percent of its total energy demand (EJ) in 2021. The EU rushed to replace these volumes via the LNG market, which is just over 3x the size of Europe’s newfound gas void, pushing LNG prices higher this year,” BofA Global Research added in the report. “Europe’s gas inventories are in a strong position ahead of winter thanks to forced stockpiling, but cold weather in the EU or Asia could turn the tables, creating chaos in the LNG markets once again,” the company continued. In the report, BofA Global Research noted that global LNG supply growth is set to slow from 15mn mt year on year in 2022 to 12mn mt in 2023. The U.S. is set to drive supply growth year on year in 2023 thanks to the Freeport LNG restart and the year on year effect of Calcasieu Pass’ ramp up this year, BofA Global Research outlined in the report. In a separate market note sent to Rigzone on October 11, Rystad Energy Vice President Emily McClain highlighted that U.S. LNG exports are “critical for global balances”. In a Rystad note sent to Rigzone on October 5, McClain said weekly LNG imports into Europe were at their highest levels since early May, “with imports averaging 2.6 million tons in September’s second half and up 26 percent compared to previous week’s average of two million tons”.
Europe Facing Record High LNG Shipping Rates, Running Out Of Storage Capacity - A lack of ships is the latest challenge for buyers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this winter, as Europe prepares for a season without Russian energy supplies and shipping rates are hitting records highs, according to a Bloomberg report. European countries are actually paying to keep LNG-loaded ships nearby as onshore storage facilities are maxed out. The scramble to charter fleets of ships to carry LNG has sparked fears that many buyers will not have enough ships capable of transporting the fuel from exporters.Demand for LNG in Europe surged by 65 percent for the first eight months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its third quarter Gas Market Report released on Oct. 3.LNG shipments are now being sought from suppliers like the United States, Nigeria, and Qatar.In June, the EU imported more gas from the United States than from Russia for the first time in its history, after Moscow reduced its exports to Europe following sanctions, according to OilPrice.com.As much as 70 percent of all U.S. natural gas exports were sent to Europe in September, up from 63 percent in August, according to Reuters.Meanwhile, nations in Northeast Asia and South America are also beginning to charter LNG-bearing ships in preparation for the winter, adding additional pressure.States in New England, which are dependent on LNG imports for the winter to supplement energy supplies, are being forced to compete against European buyers, Seeking Alpha reported.The cost to charter an LNG-carrying ship in the Atlantic Ocean rose to $397,500 per day on Oct. 11, Bloomberg reported.The new record for Atlantic LNG freight rates topped the previous record of $374,000 per day set on Oct. 3.This is an increase of over $306,500 per day, or 337 percent, compared to the 2021 shipping rate of $91,000 per day, and a 500 percent increase since the beginning of 2022, according to Spark Commodities.The LNG shipping price assessor said this broke last year’s all-time record high from the Pacific Ocean during the height of the supply chain crisis.Rates are expected to rise as traders and utilities proceed to hoard more natural gas, which is presenting a hurdle to buyers this winter.The race to buy LNG—and charter vessels to carry it—could create the next big shortage in the energy market, say analysts and traders.LNG exporters in Asia are now selling gas directly from their ports rather than offering to ship the fuel, due to the shipping shortage.Buyers who lack LNG transport are being forced to pay extremely high rates to ferry the fuel, or in certain cases are failing to find any ships at all.There are few vessels left to charter through the rest of the year, and those that are still available are charging astronomical rates, according to LNG traders.
Dutch dilemma: What is Europe willing to do for more natural gas? - This coming fateful winter season in Europe is likely to include a lively debate about whether the Dutch should make a perilous trade-off on behalf of an energy-starved Europe. So far, the Dutch have been firm about closing one of the world's largest natural gas fields, Groningen, no later than 2024—even in the face of severe European gas shortages resulting from the loss of gas from Russian pipelines. The reason for that firmness has to do with the damage earthquakes are inflicting on the buildings located above and around the field, earthquakes related directly to withdrawal of Groningen's gas. In the northeastern part of the country, some 1200 earthquakes have severely damaged 27,000 buildings to the point that they are uninhabitable. About 3,300 structures have been demolished. A 2015 study reported that 152,000 homes need to be reinforced. As a result the government has been reducing gas withdrawals to mitigate the problem with an eye toward closing the field. Closing the field also comports with the government's greenhouse gas reduction goals.But, will the Dutch be able to withstand calls for increasing production from Groningen as the European winter arrives?The Dutch government has sort of left itself an out saying that production could be resumed after a planned 2024 permanent shutdown as a last resort if Dutch households were faced with running out of natural gas. It's worth noting that Groningen still has large reserves—some 450 billion cubic meters of gas (15.8 trillion cubic feet) which is the equivalent of more than one year of European Union consumption. But, the field, which opened in 1963, is now more than 80 percent depleted. However, even at the reduced rate of production set back in 2015 of 27 billion cubic meters per year, that gas could help supply Dutch households and export customers in other countries for another 16 years. But, production has been capped at 2.8 billion cubic meters for the coming year in advance of the planned shutdown in 2024. High natural gas prices are affecting the Netherlands just as they are most other European countries. The sprawling Dutch greenhouse industry, for example, which uses a large amount of gas to heat its greenhouses, is under extreme financial pressure. Bakeries, too, use a lot of natural gas for obvious reasons, and many are close to failure as energy bills approach 10 times what bakeries paid just two years ago. And, Dutch households which are filled with appliances and furnaces that burn methane—installed during the era of cheap gas—are suffering as well. European Union ministers are meeting in Prague this week to discuss how to address Europe's energy crisis. Will the Netherlands ultimately give in to calls for increasing natural gas production? Will the country forever turn its back on a resource worth €750 billion as of Friday's market close? The coming winter will test Dutch resolve.
Nord Stream gas leaks: What happened and why Europe suspects sabotage - Two subsea pipelines connecting Russia to Germany are at the center of international intrigue after a series of blasts caused what might be the single largest release of methane in history — and many suspect it was the result of an attack.An initial crime scene investigation last week into what caused the gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines reinforced suspicions of "gross sabotage."As investigations continue, many in Europe suspect the incident was the result of an attack, particularly as it occurred during a bitter energy standoffbetween the European Union and Russia.The Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed claims it destroyed the pipelines,calling such allegations "stupid" and "absurd," and claiming that it is the U.S. that had the most to gain from the gas leaks.The White House has denied any involvement in the suspected attack. On Sept. 26, a flurry of detonations on two underwater pipelines connecting Russia to Germany sent gas spewing to the surface of the Baltic Sea. The explosions triggered four gas leaks at four locations — two in Denmark's exclusive economic zone and two in Sweden's exclusive economic zone.The magnitude of those explosions was measured at 2.3 and 2.1 on the Richter scale, respectively, Swedish and Danish authorities said, and likely corresponded to an explosive load of "several hundred kilos."Neither of the Nord Stream pipelines was transporting gas at the time of the blasts, although they both contained pressurized methane — a potent greenhouse gas.Remarkably, the signature of the gas bubbling at the surface of the Baltic Sea could be seen from space.A satellite image of the Nord Stream leak in the Baltic Sea, captured on Sept. 26, 2022.Climate scientists described the shocking images of the methane erupting from the burst as a "reckless release" of greenhouse gas emissions that, if deliberate, "amounts to an environmental crime."At the time, Denmark's armed forces said video footage showed the largest gas leak created a surface disturbance of roughly 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) in diameter, while the smallest leak caused a circle of approximately 200 meters.The Nord Stream gas pipelines have become a focal point of tensions between Russia and Europe in recent months, with Moscow accused of weaponizing gas supplies in a bid to gain sanctions relief amid its onslaught in Ukraine.
Sweden completes investigation of Baltic Sea pipeline leaks - (AP) — Sweden’s domestic security agency said Thursday that its preliminary investigation of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage” as the cause and a prosecutor said evidence at the site has been seized. The Swedish Security Service said the probe confirmed that “detonations" caused extensive damage to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines last week. Authorities had said when the leaks off Sweden and Denmark first surfaced that explosions were recorded in the area. The agency, which said what happened in the Baltic Sea was “very serious,” didn't give details about its investigation. But in a separate statement, Swedish prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said “seizures have been made at the crime scene and these will now be investigated.” Ljungqvist, who led the preliminary investigation, did not identify the seized evidence. Ljungqvist said he had given “directives to temporarily block (the area) and carry out a crime scene investigation." Now that the initial probe is completed, a blockade around the pipelines off Sweden will be lifted, he said. The governments of Denmark and Sweden previously said they suspected that several hundred pounds of explosives were involved in carrying out a deliberate act of sabotage. The leaks from Nord Stream 1 and 2 discharged huge amounts of methane into the air. Last week, undersea explosions ruptured Nord Stream 2 and its sister pipeline, Nord Stream 2, at two locations off Sweden and two off Denmark. The pipelines were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany. Danish authorities said the two methane leaks they were monitoring in international waters stopped over the weekend. One of the leaks off Sweden also appeared to have ended. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of attacking the pipelines, which the United States and its allies have vehemently denied, noting that Russia has the most to gain in wrecking havoc on Europe's energy markets. Separately the Swedish coast guard said “the remaining emissions is more or less unchanged,” and that it was returning to its ordinary environmental rescue operations.
Germany opens investigation of Baltic gas pipeline blasts - (AP) — German prosecutors on Monday opened an investigation into the suspected sabotage of two gas pipelines built to bring Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Undersea explosions late last month ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August was its main supply route to Germany. They also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service as Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. German federal prosecutors, who investigate national security cases, said they have opened an investigation against persons unknown on suspicion of deliberately causing an explosion and anticonstitutional sabotage. Prosecutors said that there is sufficient evidence that the pipelines were damaged by at least two deliberate detonations, and the aim of their investigation is to help identify the perpetrator or perpetrators as well as a possible motive. The German investigation comes on top of a probe in Sweden. A prosecutor there said last week that evidence had been seized at the site. The governments of Denmark and Sweden previously said they suspected that several hundred pounds of explosives were involved in carrying out a deliberate act of sabotage. The leaks from Nord Stream 1 and 2 discharged huge amounts of methane into the air. German federal prosecutors said the reason for them getting involved as well is that an attack on energy supplies could affect Germany's external and domestic security. On Sunday, authorities said that two German boats had set off for the area where the leaks occurred to look into what happened. Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of attacking the pipelines, which the United States and its allies vehemently denied.
Germany’s gas price cap: A gift for large corporations and the rich --The Gas Price Commission set up by the German government presented a proposal on Monday for cushioning high natural gas and energy prices with government money. It envisions lavish cash gifts for large corporations and the wealthy, while the poor, ordinary earners and small businesses will still be unable to absorb the skyrocketing costs despite government aid. 24 million private households and small businesses are expected to bear the full brunt of higher gas prices in the heating-intensive winter months of January, February and possibly March. The tariff has risen from around 7 cents per kilowatt hour before the sanctions against Russia were imposed to between 20 and 30 cents. For December, the Commission proposes a one-time payment equal to this September’s monthly bill. This is a highly arbitrary value, as the September bill for many households was still based on the old prices. The main beneficiaries are wealthy villa owners with high gas consumption, who are treated in the same way as tenants of small apartments. A certain “watering can subsidy” was unfortunately unavoidable, commented the chairmen of the commission, “economic expert” Veronika Grimm, the president of the BDI industry association, Siegfried Russwurm, and the chairman of the IG BCE chemical workers union, Michael Vassiliadis, with a shrug. It will not be until March or April that private customers and small and medium-sized enterprises will be able to purchase 80 percent of their previous year’s consumption at its government-subsidized price of 12 cents. That is still almost twice as much as before the Ukraine war. For anything above that, they will have to pay the full market price. In total, this is expected to cost the state around €66 billion by the end of April 2024. A further €30 billion is earmarked for subsidizing around 25,000 large companies with an annual consumption of over 1.5 megawatt hours, which will start benefiting from subsidized prices as early as January 1. They will be guaranteed a gas price of 7 cents per kilowatt hour for 70 percent of the previous year’s consumption. BDI President Russwurm claims that this is roughly equivalent to the 12 cents for private consumers, since it is a pure procurement price and not the gross tariff including taxes and fees, as is the case for private customers. But it is obvious that large corporations are being favoured. Here, too, the Commission is acting according to the watering-can principle. Highly profitable corporations benefit from the state money just as much as those threatened with bankruptcy.
Germans told to stop whining, wear 2 sweaters and have candles and flashlights ready in case of blackouts this winter - Germans should stop whining and be prepared with sweaters and candles this winter in case of blackouts amid the energy crisis, according to politician Wolfgang Schäuble.In an interview on Tuesday with Bild-TV, the former finance minister and president of the German government said Germans should "just put on a sweater, or maybe a second sweater" in the event of a freezing-cold winter."You don't have to whine about it, you have to recognize that a lot of things can't be taken for granted," he told the news channel.European leaders have raised concerns about the possibility ofpower cuts this winter because of the squeeze in energy supplies. "That's why you should always have a few candles, matches and a flashlight at home," Schäuble told Bild-TV.The 80-year-old also warned Germans not to assume the government could solve financial problems such as soaring inflation and energy costs."If we suggest to people that everything is unlimited, we are overexploiting. Then people get the impression that the state can do everything – that is not sustainable," Schäuble told Bild-TV.Russia continues to hold back natural gas supplies to Europe after the West imposed sanctions on Moscow for invading Ukraine. As a result of the shortages, energy prices have sky-rocketed, leaving some people struggling to afford food and other basic items.European retailers, banks, and other businesses have already implemented energy-saving measures, such as switching off illuminated advertisements for 18 hours, keeping doors shut, and turning off fountains, ahead of potential shortages.Meanwhile, some governments have introduced rules aimed to keep energy use to a minimum. For example, Germany banned heated swimming pools and Spain restricted heating to a maximum temperature of 19 degrees Celsius in public buildings.
Gazprom CEO Warns EU: "Whole Towns Could Freeze" This Winter - Even though Europe's natural gas storage for this winter is nearly full, the head of Russian energy Gazprom PJSC still warned European households could freeze in the event of a cold snap, according to Bloomberg. "Winter can be relatively warm, but one week or even five days will be abnormally cold, and it's possible that whole towns and lands, god forbid, will freeze," Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said at Russian Energy Week in Moscow. Miller said during peak winter demand days, Europe could experience a gap of 800 million cubic meters of NatGas per day, or about one-third of its total consumption. The figures were from a report by unidentified analysts. Natgas to Europe is stable so far this week, albeit at reduced levels over the past year. Shipments via Ukraine are one of the last remaining Russian supply lines to western Europe after the bombing of Nord Stream pipelines. Even though NatGas shipments have dwindled and pushed many European economies to the brink of recession, inventories across the continent are nearly full at 91%. The good news is EU storage is above a 10-year average of 71% for this time of year. Dutch front-month gas futures, a European benchmark, has been nearly halved since late August on relief from inventories and hopes of a warmer winter. But new data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) outlines that a high-pressure system over western Europe could bring colder weather, less wind, and less rainfall. Less wind would reduce the generation of renewable power. Gazprom's CEO said EU NatGas inventories could be drained to 5% full in March... "Sure, Europe will survive, but what will happen by the time of gas injection" into storage before winter of 2023 and 2024."It will be clear then that energy crisis has come not for a short period of time."It appears Europe's energy crisis is far from over... The UK is already warning about its inability to import enough NatGas this winter, threatening to unleash power blackouts across its grid.
European Natural Gas Prices Mixed Amid Flood of Supplies, Market Intervention – LNG Recap - LNG continues to flood Europe, pushing the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) to a three-month low in intraday trading on Monday when the prompt month contract again finished lower. Fundamentals on the continent are comfortable for the moment, with storage inventories nearly 91% full and above the five-year average. Warmer weather is also expected to continue gripping the region over the next two weeks. Suppliers continue to offer spot cargoes in Asia as well, where the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) has been weak. JKM futures prices fell along with TTF last week and spot prices were in the high $20/MMBtu range Monday, despite a force majeure on supplies from the Malaysia liquefied natural gas terminal that could cut three cargoes monthly. Weakness in the Asian market has also helped to keep European prices from climbing and “guarantees LNG supply to Europe will remain strong in the near future,” said analysts at Engie EnergyScan. While the November TTF contract finished about 2% lower Monday, prices along the rest of the curve finished higher and settled above $48/MMBtu. A series of meetings among European Union leaders is scheduled this month and next to decide on further measures to limit the impacts of this year’s soaring energy costs on consumers and businesses. “The market remains very uncertain as several intervention plans that influence gas are still very much up in the air,” said trading firm Energi Danmark in a Monday note. The European Commission is reviewing options to curb natural gas prices, including the possibility of establishing a corridor with suppliers for lower prices on the continent and ways to limit the overall costs of imports or the influence of gas in power markets.
Israel to allow natural gas extraction off Gaza - Israel has responded to Egyptian efforts to allow the Palestinian Authority to produce natural gas off the coast of Gaza, the Al-Monitor website reported on Sunday, a report confirmed by a PL executive committee member. Egypt has been holding secret bilateral talks for several months after years of Israeli objections to producing natural gas off the coast of Gaza for security reasons. The field in question, located about 19 miles west of the Gaza coast, was discovered in 2000 by British Gas (now BG Group) and contains more than 1,000 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The cost of its development is estimated at $1.2 billion. The senior Egyptian intelligence official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that "an Egyptian security delegation discussed for several months with the Israeli side the issue of allowing natural gas production off the coast of Gaza. The delegation was finally able to reach a compromise that would benefit all parties involved." On February 21, 2021, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt signed a memorandum of understanding on offshore gas field development in Gaza.
Egypt is set to take part in developing Gaza's offshore gas field: officials - Egypt is aiming to take over development of Gaza's offshore natural gas field, Egyptian and Palestinian officials said, in what would be a boost for the cash-strapped Palestinian economy. While Egypt and Israel have been producing gas in the eastern Mediterranean for years, the Gaza Marine field, about 30 km (20 miles) off the Gaza coast, has remained undeveloped due to political disputes and conflict with Israel, as well as economic factors. The project was last in the hands of oil major Shell , which gave up its stake in 2018. The Palestinians have been looking for a new foreign group to take over. Palestinian companies would keep at least 55per cent of the shares, according to a cabinet decision at the time. Egypt's state-owned gas company EGAS began talks last year with the Palestine Investment Fund PIF and the Consolidated Contractors Company CCC, a coalition of companies that are licensed to develop the field, officials said. An Egyptian intelligence official told Reuters in Cairo EGAS, in cooperation with Palestinian authorities, will develop the offshore field. The Egyptian security official, who asked not to be named, said Cairo has been in negotiations for about two months with Israel, which together with Egypt maintains a blockade on Gaza and would likely have to green light the project. Egypt's petroleum ministry did not respond to a request for comment, and EGAS could not immediately be reached. Israel's energy ministry, asked about development of the field, said it was not aware that any decision had been made. Israel has said in the past it supports the field's development. "These talks are progressing positively. Once a detailed and final agreement is reached, it will be announced after obtaining the official approvals according to the established rules," said one Palestinian official familiar with the talks with the Egyptians. The Gaza Strip is run by the Islamist group. Most of its 2.3 million residents live in poverty and it suffers from rolling blackouts. Gas from Gaza Marine would help fuel the coastal strip's power plants and kickstart the economy. A second Palestinian official said Cairo has also been in contact with Hamas officials to secure their approval. "Cairo's strategic role as a mediator between Israel and the Palestinians over decades makes talks easier," the official told Reuters. "Development may take time to start once an agreement is concluded. The project would be a vital tool to improve Palestinian economy," he added. Gaza Marine is estimated to hold over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, much more than is needed to power the Palestinian territories and could potentially be exported.
Israel, Lebanon agree on historic maritime border deal - — Israeli and Lebanese leaders appear to have agreed to a U.S.-brokered deal that will let both countries exploit gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, potentially ending a decades-long dispute over their maritime border, easing growing military tensions and providing a desperately needed source of income to Lebanon’s collapsing economy. The agreement, which needs formal approval in both countries, was hailed by leaders in Beirut and Jerusalem as a historic breakthrough. It is the first agreement on border demarcation between the two nations. “This is an historic achievement that will strengthen Israel’s security, inject billions into Israel’s economy, and ensure the stability of our northern border,” Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement Tuesday. Lebanese leaders have yet to make an official announcement on the deal, but President Michel Aoun said in a tweet Tuesday that “the final version of the offer is satisfactory for Lebanon and answers its demands and preserves its rights to its natural wealth.” Officials hope the agreement, if finalized, will cool intensifying tensions along the frontier. Hezbollah, the Iran-allied militant group that controls southern Lebanon, has threatened to attack a new offshore gas facility that Israel is readying for production in what Lebanon claims are disputed waters. The group has launched drones toward the gas field more than once, including three unmanned aircraft that were shot down by Israel in early July. In the face of Hezbollah’s threats to strike should Israel begin pumping natural gas from the Karish Field, Defense Minister Benny Gantz put troops on high alert after the maritime border talks ran into last-minute disputes last week. Hezbollah, which along with its allies holds the largest bloc in the Lebanese parliament, had no immediate comment on the draft of the agreement. In a speech late Tuesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah cautioned that “Until we sign, we must be careful in light of the contradictory Israeli positions.” The agreement would define only the offshore boundary between the sworn enemies, not the 50-mile land border that remains in dispute after multiple wars and continues to be patrolled by a United Nations monitoring force after more than four decades. The maritime frontier has proved to be equally contentious in recent years, particularly after gas deposits were discovered in the seabed inside the 330-square-mile region. Israel, which has already developed gas fields in nearby waters, strung a line of buoys three miles out from a rocky cliff near the U.N. headquarters. Beirut condemned the move as a unilateral provocation. Resolving the dispute — which has gained urgency as the risk of conflict rose and Lebanon’s economic free fall has grown more critical — has been a regional priority for the Biden administration. The president’s special envoy, Amos Hochstein, brokered talks over the past year with the goal of giving countries fair access to the area. The deal comes as gas discoveries are remaking the energy map of the Mediterranean just as Europe is looking for alternate sources in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gas diplomacy may also be thawing Israel’s tense relationship with Turkey, for example, as the two countries seek to revive long-abandoned plans for a pipeline through Turkey to Europe.
Russia proposes gas hub in Turkey to redirect Nord Stream supplies --Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a plan for a European gas hub in Turkey to shift gas supplies intended for the damaged Nord Stream pipelines to the Black Sea, reported Reuters.The proposal to build more subsea natural gas pipelines to Turkey comes following a recent discovery of gas leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that are intended for the supply of Russian natural gas to Germany.Putin was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying: “We could transfer to the Black Sea the lost Nord Stream volumes that used to be transited across the Baltic Sea.Putin said the new Black Sea links to Turkey could become the main Russian gas-export route for Europe.Putin added: “It’s economically viable, and considering the recent events, the security level there is significantly higher.”With the halt of gas flow via the Nord Stream pipelines, Russia has only two operating routes for Europe- via one line of the TurkStream link under the Black Sea that runs towards Turkey, and another through Ukraine.Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said the firm is ready to build additional gas links under the Black Sea toward Turkey.Miller also recommended creating a gas trading hub on the EU-Turkish border.
Shell Says Norway Gas Flows Are Normal After Hoax Threat - Shell Plc confirmed that gas is flowing normally following a hoax threat at the Norwegian Nyhamna processing facility earlier on Thursday. Norway police were called to the Ormen Lange site to investigate a possible threat but said they found no evidence. Authorities in Europe are particularly on edge after detonations were carried out recently on the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia. The Ormen Lange field and the Nyhamna plant are two major facilities, key for Norway’s supplies to Europe. There’s already increased scrutiny around energy infrastructure in the region after the recent blasts in the Baltic Sea. On Wednesday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned all energy infrastructure in the world is at risk after the Nord Stream sabotage. Shell in Norway was “informed by the police about an unclear situation in the proximity of the Nyhamna gas plant,” a spokesperson said. “As a precaution, the gas plant was evacuated and Shell’s emergency response organization was mobilized.” Europe is already facing a winter with reduced gas flows from Russia. A further disruption to supplies could mean wide-spread shortages and skyrocketing prices. Gas storage levels are higher than usual but a spell of cold weather or a prolonged outage could make the situation precarious. Nyhamna processes natural gas from the Shell-operated Ormen Lange field and accounts for about 20% of the UK’s supplies. Export capacity is currently 84 million standard cubic meters of gas a day, according to Gassco, which runs the facility.
Malfunction Hits Shell Pernis Refinery Unit Amid Fuel Crunch - Europe’s largest oil refinery suffered a malfunction, a potential source of jitters for the continent’s refined fuels market where supply has already been hit by industrial action. The compressor of fluid catalytic cracker unit 2 tripped on Oct. 12 due to the loss of power supply, according to a fire safety alert from the region’s Rjinmond Veilig service. Known as FCC units, the conversion plants are typically used to make refined products such as gasoline. Shell Plc’s Pernis plant near Rotterdam has been flaring elevated amounts of gas following the incident, triggering 200 complaints from the public, DCMR, an environmental regulator, said in a notice on its website. The plant is also an important source of diesel within Europe. The continent can ill afford material disruption to refined petroleum supply, given a European Union ban on purchases from Russia that’s due to start in early February. Strikes over pay in France have knocked out a swath of the nation’s fuelmaking, crunching supply. BP Plc is carrying out planned work on the FCC at its Rotterdam refinery, which is next to Pernis in Europe in terms of size. Shell said in a statement that governments have been informed about the incident, but didn’t elaborate on what processing capacity was affected or what it would mean for fuel supply. “I can only tell you that we expect the nuisance will continue for the time being and that try to minimize the nuisance for the people in the vicinity,” a Shell spokesman said.
EU humiliated as bloc handed Putin over £87bn since start of Ukraine war despite sanctions - The EU has been exposed for handing Russia over €100billion (£87billion) amid the war in Ukraine for energy imports, despite scrambling to cut ties with Vladimir Putin. Since Russian troops first descended on their neighbouring country back in mid-February, imports of gas, coal and oil have continued to pour into the bloc, laying bare Europe's staggering dependence on Russian fuels that continue to generate huge revenues for the Kremlin. For the first six months of the conflict, the Kremlin banked an eye-watering €158billion (£138billion) from fossil fuel exports. According to estimates from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), an independent Helsinki-based research group, the EU imported 54 percent of this, worth around €85billion (£75billion). And despite receiving only a fraction of the gas from Russia compared with volumes delivered in 2021, the bloc was still handing Putin the same amount of cash as prices were sent soaring. In fact, the volume of Europe's fossil fuel imports from Russia has been slashed by half since the invasion as a result of both harsh western sanctions such a coal embargo, and due to deliberate gas cuts from Russia which hiked up prices. But despite the plummeting imports, which it was hoped would deal a blow to Putin and hamstring his war efforts, Crea has estimated that the EU still imports around €260million (£228million) worth of Russian fossil fuels every day. Lauri Myllyvirta, leqad analyst at Crea, said: "While capping prices and limiting imports from Russia, it’s essential for European countries to accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy. This year has revealed the reliance on fossil fuels as a fundamental national security and economic vulnerability." This comes after the EU agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil last week as part of a sanctions package that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed would "make the Kremlin pay". In what was the eighth round of harsh measures taken against Moscow to punish it for launching its brutal attack on Ukraine, EU ministers reportedly agreed on the measure following the Russian President's threat to use nuclear weapons amid the conflict. Ms von der Leyen said: "We have moved quickly and decisively. We will never accept Putin’s sham referenda nor any kind of annexation in Ukraine. We are determined to continue making the Kremlin pay." But while the EU scrambles to scupper its dependence on Russian fuels, completely cutting ties with Moscow could risk shortages, higher prices, and even energy blackouts. And with some nations within the 27-member bloc being more dependent on Russian energy than others, furious EU bust-ups have appeared to delay quicker action from being taken.
Price-Setting Talks for Russian Oil Cap Plan Set to Start -Countries working to impose a price cap on Russian oil will meet over the next several weeks to determine the specific price ceilings for the country’s crude oil and refined products, according to a senior US Treasury official. The official, briefing reporters this week on condition of anonymity, declined to speculate on specific levels, but stressed that finding agreement on those price levels was the next important step. Partners in the plan include the US, European Union and other governments in the Group of Seven countries such as Japan. The discussions come at a challenging time for oil markets. Members of the OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, decided earlier this month to lower their collective output by 2 million barrels a day, driving prices higher. Treasury officials have earlier said the price level for crude needed to be above Russia’s average cost of production -- which government budget figures put at about $44 a barrel -- in order to encourage continued output. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading around $92 a barrel on Wednesday. A separate person familiar with G-7 talks said meetings of a price-setting body would start in the second half of October with government officials from participating countries. The group would first aim to set a ceiling for crude, and then consider a cap on products, the person said. EU restrictions on Russian sales later this year are expected to further tighten supplies, a situation the price cap plan is designed to alleviate. The EU has banned imports of Russian oil and will also prohibit its companies from providing financing and insurance services for seaborne cargoes of Russian petroleum, starting Dec. 5 for crude and Feb. 5 for refined products. The EU will also ban its companies from providing shipping services for Russian oil, contingent on the G-7 implementing the price-cap plan. The cap regime would allow buyers of Russian oil to access European services, but only if their purchase price falls below caps set by the US and its allies.
Putin orders seizure of Exxon-led Sakhalin 1 oil and gas project --Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Friday that establishes a new operator for the Exxon Mobil Corp-led Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East. Putin's move affecting Exxon's largest investment in Russia mimics a strategy he used to seize control of other energy properties in the country. The decree gives the Russian government authority to decide whether foreign shareholders can retain stakes in the project. Exxon holds a 30% operator stake in Sakhalin-1, with Russian company Rosneft, India's ONGC Videsh and Japan's SODECO as partners. Oil production at the Sakhalin-1 project fell to just 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July from 220,000 bpd before Russia invaded Ukraine. Exxon has been trying to exit its Russia operations and transfer its role in Sakhalin-1 to a partner since March, after international sanctions imposed on Moscow. Russia's government and Exxon have clashed, with the oil producer threatening to take the case to international arbitration. Exxon declined to comment on Friday's decree. Japan's SODECO was not immediately available to comment, but an official of the industry ministry, which owns a 50% stake in the firm, said it was gathering information and talking with partners. Japan has stopped buying crude from Russia since June. Exxon took an impairment charge of $4.6 billion in April for its Russian activities and said it was working with partners to transfer Sakhalin-1's operation. It also reduced energy production and moved staff out of the country. In August, Putin issued a decree that Exxon said made a secure and environmentally safe exit from Sakhalin-1 difficult. The U.S. producer then issued a "note of difference," a legal step prior to arbitration. Friday's decree said the Russian government was establishing a Russian company, managed by Rosneft subsidiary Sakhalinmorneftegaz-shelf, that will own investors' rights in Sakhalin-1. Foreign partners will have one month after the new company is created to ask the Russian government for shares in the new entity, the decree said. Putin used a similar strategy in a July decree to seize full control of Sakhalin-2, another gas and oil project in the Russian Far East, with Shell and Japanese companies Mitsui & Co and Mitsubishi Corp as partners.
Petronas pipeline leak hit part of Malaysia's LNG exports: sources -- Contracts to export Malaysian liquefied natural gas (LNG) that sources gas from the northern Borneo state of Sabah are under force majeure following a pipeline leak, trade sources said on Friday. Malaysia LNG, majority owned by Petronas, declared force majeure on LNG supplies to its customers due to a leak on the Sabah-Sarawak Gas Pipeline on Sept. 21, a Mitsubishi Corp spokesperson said on Thursday. This came after Petronas declared force majeure on gas supplies to Malaysia LNG, in which Mitsubishi also owns a stake. The disruption comes ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's winter season, a peak demand period when countries aim to ensure sufficient LNG for heating while facing the threat of energy supply disruptions from Russia this year. One source familiar with the matter, referring to Sabah, said only supply from the affected pipeline had been disrupted, adding: "There's still plenty more gas coming from Sarawak." The 512-kilometre Sabah-Sarawak Gas Pipeline transports gas from the Sabah Oil and Gas Terminal to Petronas' LNG complex at Bintulu in Sarawak where LNG is exported. The JKM price for November delivery gained on Thursday after the force majeure declaration. It rose to $32.503 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up $3.628/mmBtu from the previous day, according to Platt's JKM LNG price assessment, yet remained much lower than record levels hit in August. "Currently, the force majeure is estimated to affect about two to three cargoes a month to Japanese buyers, which accounts for about only 3 per cent of the average total of Japanese LNG imports during October to December," said Ryhana Rasidi, gas and LNG analyst at Kpler. "However, while we haven't seen an uptick in Japanese buyers seeking replacement cargoes, the sentiment could easily change if the disruption turns out to be longer than expected."
Leak detected in pipeline that brings crude oil to Germany - (AP) — An oil leak was detected on a pipeline in Poland that's the main route through which Russian crude reaches Germany, the pipeline's Polish operator said Wednesday. The operator, PERN, said it detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline on Tuesday evening 70 kilometers (45 miles) from the central Polish city of Plock. It said the cause of the leak wasn't known. The incident follows leaks late last month in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines running along the Baltic seabed, and amid an energy standoff between Russia and the West over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Denmark and Sweden say those natural gas pipelines were attacked with large amounts of explosives. The Druzhba pipeline, which in Russian means “Friendship,” is one of the world’s longest oil pipelines. After leaving Russia, it branches out to bring crude to points including Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Germany. A Polish government security official, Stanislaw Zaryn, said the leak could be the result of an accident, but that officials were still investigating and were looking at all possible explanations. “Different scenarios are possible. We don’t exclude any of them,” he told The Associated Press. Firefighters were working in cornfields near the village of Zurawice to determine the exact point of the leak, according to a spokesman for firefighters, Brig. Karol Kierzkowski. He told the state news broadcaster TVP Info that approximately 400 cubic meters of spilled crude had been pumped out, and transmission along the line had been blocked off. Germany’s Economy Ministry said that Berlin’s supplies are currently secure, with two German refineries continuing to receive supplies via the Druzhba pipeline. It said reserves at those two refineries have been increased in recent weeks, and that both can, if needed, be supplied via the German port of Rostock and the Polish port of Gdansk. Last year, Russia accounted for around 35% of Germany’s crude oil supply. But that proportion has been reduced following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February. Germany's focus now is on phasing out the remaining supplies before a European Union embargo on most Russian imports goes into effect. An European Union embargo on most Russia oil goes into effect on Dec. 5.
Leak detected on another Russian pipeline connecting to Europe, but Poland says it looks accidental - Polish pipeline operator PERN said Wednesday that a leak detected on one of its Druzhba pipelines bringing oil from Russia to Europe was likely caused by an accident. The leak was detected on Tuesday evening on one of the two lines of the Western section of the pipeline, PERN said in a statement. The incident occurred roughly 70 kilometers (about 43 miles) from the central Polish city of Plock.PERN said pumping on the damaged line, which delivers oil to Germany, was immediately switched off and the scene had been secured. Pumping through the other line continued as normal, the company said. The cause of the incident is not yet known, but the Polish government said the damage caused was probably accidental. Mateusz Berger, Poland's top official in charge of energy infrastructure, told Reuters via telephone that there were no grounds to believe the leak was caused by sabotage. "Here we can talk about accidental damage," Berger said. The Druzhba pipeline, which translates as "friendship" in Russia, is one of the biggest oil pipeline networks in the world, delivering crude from Russia to much of central and eastern Europe including Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Belarus, Poland and Slovakia. It comes just over two weeks after a series of blasts on two subsea gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany triggered what might be the single largest release of methane in history. Nord Stream gas leaks An initial crime scene investigation led by Sweden's national security service said the gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines reinforced suspicions of "gross sabotage." Many in Europe suspect the Nord Stream gas leaks were the result of a deliberate attack, particularly as the blasts came amid a bitter energy standoff between the European Union and Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed claims it destroyed the pipelines, calling such allegations "stupid" and "absurd," and claiming that it is the U.S. that had the most to gain from the gas leaks. The White House has denied any involvement in the suspected attack.
Poland sees no signs of interference in oil pipeline spill -- The Polish operator of an oil pipeline says there are "no signs of any third-party interference" related to a leak in a pipeline that is the main source of crude oil from Russia to Germany. PERN, the operator, said in a statement late Wednesday that its technical services had located the site of the spill after removing most of the contamination from the area. "Based on first findings and the manner in which the pipeline was deformed, it appears that at this point there are no signs of any third-party interference," PERN said. "However, more detailed analyses are underway to determine the cause of the incident and to repair the pipeline so that crude oil pumping can be restarted as soon as possible." PERN detected a leak in the Druzhba pipeline on Tuesday evening 70 kilometers from the central Polish city of Plock. The Druzhba pipeline, which in Russian means "Friendship," is one of the world's longest oil pipelines. After leaving Russia, it branches out to bring crude to points including Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Germany. The incident follows leaks late last month in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines running along the Baltic seabed, and amid an energy standoff between Russia and the West over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Denmark and Sweden say those natural gas pipelines were attacked with large amounts of explosives, and the discovery of another leak so soon in an oil pipeline had raised concerns.
With A Third Of French Gas Stations Experiencing "Supply Shortages", Energy Giant Seeks Urgent Wage Talks - Just days after we reported that France had tapped its strategic fuel reserves to resupply a growing number of gas stations that had run dry due to a nearly two-week long strike of refinery workers, with Government spokesman Olivier Veran urging consumers not to panic-buy only to achieve the opposite results, on Sunday the French Energy ministry announced that almost a third of French petrol (that's gasoline for US readers) stations were experiencing "supply difficulties" with at least one fuel product (up from 21% on Saturday), as French energy giant TotalEnergies offered to bring forward wage talks, in response to union demands, as it sought to end the strike that has pushed French to the bring of a historic energy crisis."Provided the blockades will end and all labor representatives agree, the company proposes to advance to October the start of mandatory annual wage talks," it said in a statement. The talks were initially scheduled to start in mid-November.In response, Union representatives earlier told Reuters the strikes staged by the CGT, historically one of France's more militant unions, would continue even as unions said they are willing to begin negotiations next week.They have disrupted operations at two ExxonMobil sites as well as at two TotalEnergies sites, sending French gasoline inventories sliding. Over roughly two weeks of industrial action, France's domestic fuel output has fallen by more than 60%, straining nerves across the country, as waiting lines grow and supplies have run dry.France’s Minister of Transport Clement Beaune said that there was no problem with supply in France on Saturday. He said shortages are a “localised phenomena, related to social movements", while urging companies and trade unions to act with "responsibility".On Friday, as refinery strikes continued for a tenth day, the country's energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said that "over 80% of the petrol stations are functioning as normal", adding there were "significant supply tensions" in some regions, particularly along the border with Belgium where fuel currently costs more. Since then that 80% has dropped to 70%."The Government is doing its utmost to restore the situation to normal as soon as possible", Pannier-Runacher said in a statement on Saturday. "A solution to this conflict must be found as soon as possible", he added.Meanwhile, long queues formed at inner-city and suburban service stations in and around the capital as early as Wednesday, with lines stretching back to the main A1 motorway heading northwards out of the city, according to a Reuters reporter.
Russia’s Oil Revenues Drop To The Lowest Level This Year - Falling crude oil prices and declining oil exports resulted in a $3.2-billion drop in Russia’s oil revenues to $15.3 billion for September, the lowest monthly oil export revenue for Moscow this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Total crude oil and oil product exports out of Russia fell by 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.5 million bpd in September, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report out today. The September oil export level was 560,000 bpd lower compared to Russia’s oil exports before the invasion of Ukraine, the agency estimated. Russian oil exports to the European Union fell by 390,000 bpd in September compared to August, the IEA’s data showed.“With less than two months to go before a ban on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect, EU countries have yet to diversify more than half of their pre-war import levels away from Russia,” the agency noted. The IEA also warned that the EU embargo on crude oil imports from Russia and the ban on maritime services that go into effect in early December could lead to further production losses from Russia.Putin, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, have said that Russia would not export oil to countries joining the proposed price cap on Russian oil. Despite the lowest oil income for this year in September, Russia’s revenues “were still higher than the average monthly revenue in 2021,” which stood at $14.9 billion, the IEA said in its monthly report.As of September, the EU had already imported more than $97 billion (100 billion euros) worth of fossil fuels from Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the think-tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a reportearlier this month.“Russia’s fossil fuel exports resumed dropping in September, with estimated revenue falling 14% from August. The largest losses were in gas exports to Europe, and in crude oil exports globally,” CREA said.
Indian refiners scout for oil deals ahead of EU ban on Russian crude - Indian state refiners plan to lock-in more of their crude supplies in term deals, worried that tighter Western sanctions on Russia, including from the EU, could curb future supplies in already tight markets, sources at state refiners said. Indian Oil Corp, the country's top refiner, and Bharat Petroleum Corp are seeking term deals with countries, including the United States, industry sources said. "We are preparing for a back up plan. When the world is uncertain because of Russia-Ukraine conflict we need to have all options open," said an official at one state refiner. The move towards term deals marks a shift in refiners' purchasing strategy, which had been geared towards maximising spot purchases in past years when supplies were abundant. "Due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict, we expect a possibility of tight oil markets and a change in flows with most Middle Eastern crude going to meet need of European markets so we need to diversify our oil sources," said a source at another state refiner. India's dependence on spot purchases allowed Indian refiners to snap up discounted Russian oil shunned by some Western buyers over Moscow's Ukraine invasion in February. India, which rarely used to buy Russian oil, has emerged as Moscow's second-largest oil customer after China. But a European Union ban on Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 will drive European refiners to buy more Middle East oil, putting them in competition with Asian buyers. To secure supplies, IOC last month signed its first six-month oil import deals with Brazil's Petrobras for 12 million barrels and Colombia's Ecopetrol for 6 million barrels. BPCL has signed an initial deal with Petrobras as it seeks to diversify oil sources. Supplies for IOC under the two deals will begin from October, said several of the sources who are familiar with the matter. IOC is also looking for more short-term supplies, including a contract for US oil, they added. IOC already has an annual deal that provides an option to buy 18 million barrels of US oil. Of these, IOC has already bought about 12 million barrels so far this year, they said. Sources said BPCL, which has already ramped up US oil purchases, is looking for more term contracts.
Tamboran Resources denies using 'intimidation' to access cattle station, fronts fracking senate inquiry - The chief executive of a gas company pushing to frack the Northern Territory's Beetaloo Basin has rejected allegations the company used "intimidation" to gain access to properties for drilling. Key points: Tamboran Resources last month acquired Origin Energy's exploration interests in the Beetaloo Basin Its chief executive Joel Riddle told the inquiry the company didn't break any laws by moving equipment onto a cattle station without consent He "categorically" denied any suggestion the gas company wasn't respectful in its dealings with the station owners Tamboran Resources, which owns Sweetpea Petroleum, has been at the centre of a stoush with pastoralists in the basin, about 500 kilometres south-east of Darwin, who do not want fracking to go ahead on their properties. The stand-off escalated earlier this year when Sweetpea Petroleum cut through fences at Tanumbirini Station against the wishes of the cattle station owners, Rallen Australia. Chairing a Senate inquiry in Canberra on Monday, Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said Tamboran Resources was "in a legal dispute with Rallen". "It's been put to this committee that your [company's] modus operandi is ... intimidation," she told Tamboran Resources chief executive Joel Riddle. "You cut fences to access the property — fences that are not yours — and you entered this property without approval. Speaking to the inquiry, Mr Riddle said it was "categorically false that we've done anything to pressure anyone". 'Fossil fuels falling away', analyst saysto frack for gas in the Northern Territory's Beetaloo Basin could be an early indicator of "fossil fuels falling away", according to an energy analyst. "We respect the rights and views of all pastoralists in the Beetaloo," Mr Riddle told senators. Mr Riddle also said the company did not break any laws by entering Tanumbirini Station and moving equipment onto the property without Rallen's consent. "Pastoralists have surface rights in the Beetaloo, other companies have mineral rights, other companies have geothermal rights — we have oil and gas exploration rights," he said. "No one party has a veto over rights of others."
FG stops Trans Niger Pipeline spillage, mulls remediation - The Federal Government, on Sunday, said it had clamped and stopped oil spillage from the 180,000 barrel per day Trans Niger Pipeline, saying that environmental remediation would commence in the affected communities. It said the oil spill into the Bodo community in Rivers State, where the TNP was ruptured, had been successfully contained. The government disclosed this through its National Petroleum Investment Management Services, a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. In a series of tweets via his official Twitter handle on Sunday, the Group General Manager, NAPIMS, Bala Wunti, described the stoppage of oil spill from the pipeline as a milestone for NNPC. He said, “Today, we achieved another great milestone on my second trip (within a week) to Bodo community. The faulty section of the Trans Niger Pipeline was clamped, and the spillage was successfully stopped. “With the completion of repairs, environmental remediation will commence in earnest. We will all go to bed feeling better tonight, knowing that the oil spill into the Bodo community has successfully been contained and that NNPC Limited trust rebuilding efforts with our beloved host community has fully taken shape and is paying off.”
Nigeria loses $150m daily to pipeline vandalism – Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited Umar Ajiya has said Nigeria loses $150 million in revenue every day. Ajiya said the pipeline vandalism and sideline production were factors behind the loss. He spoke Wednesday during an interview with Arise TV monitored in Abuja, saying the development had prevented Nigeria from benefitting from the high oil price. Ajiya said that 100 barrels of crude oil could be sent, but probably only 10 barrels would be received at the terminals. He said the oil companies can no longer tolerate such theft levels, consequent upon which they declared force majeure, causing the Nigerian government revenue loss. “At a point in this country, we had reached 2.3 to up to 2.7 million barrels per day just before the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the incessant vandalism and theft, our operators can no longer tolerate such theft levels that you send 100 barrels and you probably get 10 barrels at the terminals.
NNPC discovers illegal pipeline routed into the sea for crude oil theft - The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has revealed the discovery of an illegal oil pipeline that is routed into the sea and used in stealing crude oil. TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports that the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Mele Kyari made the disclosure at a meeting with Senate ad hoc committee on oil theft in Nigeria on Tuesday. Kyari said the discovery was made with the help of its private security partners, further disclosing that the illegal oil pipeline had probably operated for the last nine years. According to him, the illegal oil pipeline is about four kilometres long, stressing that the route did not get to its terminal. Speaking during the meeting, Kyari also disclosed that the company has deactivated 395 illegal refineries in its efforts to curb oil theft in the country. The NNPC GCEO, who raised an alarm over the scale of oil theft, and vandalism of assets in recent times described the crime as calamitous. “We have deactivated 395 illegal refineries, we have taken down 273 wooden boats, we have destroyed 374 illegal reservoirs, we destroyed 1,561 metal tanks. “We have sized over 49 trucks and burnt them down, we have discovered illegal oil pits of 898 so far, and 1,219 cooking sites have been taken down,” he said. He said crude theft by vandals has brought down Nigeria’s oil production to around 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.8 million. He said that It was not true that the difference between 1.2 million barrels and its potential budget level of 1.8 million barrels was been stolen.
Nigerian oil theft line did not begin at export terminal, NNPC says -An oil theft point that operated undetected in Nigeria for an estimated nine years ran from the Trans Escravos pipeline in the country's Delta state and not the Forcados export terminal as previously stated, the state oil company said on Sunday. Large-scale theft from the nation's pipelines has throttled exports, forced some companies to shut in production and crippled the country's finances. Last week, the NNPC's Chief Executive Mele Kyari said a four-kilometre (2.49 miles) theft line ran from the Forcados terminal, which exports one of Nigeria's main crude grades, into the sea. An NNPC spokesman said on Sunday the theft point ran from the Trans Escravos pipeline, which can feed the Forcados export terminal, after Kyari on Saturday posted photos and video to Twitter of a visit to the theft point site along with General Lucky Irabor, Nigeria's Chief of Defence Staff. The pictures showed the men inspecting pipelines that appeared to have been buried underground. Kyari tweeted that they also inspected the Afremo platform, which was potentially the exit point for the diverted crude, without giving details. He said the discovery of the theft line showed Nigeria's coordinated intervention was paying off. In August, NNPC awarded contracts to companies including those owned by former militants to crack down on oil theft. NNPC's comments on Sunday concur with those from SPDC, the Nigerian subsidiary of oil major Shell, which operates the Forcados terminal. It said in a statement last week the theft pipeline was approximately 30 kilometres away from the Forcados terminal and not on the path of its pipelines.
Oil theft in Nigeria under reported- Oilfield expert - According to a report released by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) in November, the economy suffered losses of over $38.5 billion from the threat between 2009 and 2018. The report was the outcome of a study on oil theft carried out by the Nigeria Natural Resource Charter (NNRC). Without doubt, and for the first time since discovery of crude oil, Nigeria has been in a situation whereby when oil prices go up significantly, globally, it does not translate into improved earnings for the country, but a deteriorating fiscal situation. The country, this year alone, appears to have lost track of the number of pipeline sabotage incidents as it has become the norm. It was as a resulted of this that the National Petroleum Company Limited awarded a pipeline protection contract worth N48billion yearly to Ekpemupolo a.k.a Tompolo, a former Nigeri Delta militant. The award had elicited criticism, but Mele Kyari, Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of NNPCL, had said the Federal Government made “the right decision,” as events over the years have shown that the decision is rather a convenient one considering how the government has been handling issues of oil theft and vandalism. Debo Adeniran, Chairman centre for anti-corruption and open leadership, CACOL) reacting to the award of pipeline contract to the former Niger Delta militant on This Morning, Thursday with Yori Folarin said he believes the difference is coming out, even with the recent revelation by Tompolo’s firm and his workers.
China accelerates oil, gas projects to ensure energy supply in winter - Oil and gas production has exceeded 10 million tons in the Fuman Oilfield area, a main crude oil block located in the Tarim Oilfield in Northwest China's Xinjiang Region, marking a breakthrough for China's ultra-deep oil and gas development amid efforts to consolidate the nation's energy security. Since 2022, four 1,000-ton-level wells and 45 100-ton-level wells have been drilled within the Fuman Oilfield, with a drilling success rate of over 95 percent as the fastest developed deep oilfield in China, the country's state-owned energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Sunday. The Fuman Oilfield covers an area of 17,000 square kilometers, the same size as Beijing. Total oil and gas resources from the field stand at more than 1 billion tons in what is the deepest and largest ultra-deep crude oil production area in China, according to a CCTV report. As the oil and gas reserves in the Fuman Oilfield are buried in an ultra-deep layer of 7,000 to 10,000 meters on average, it requires drills to go through rock barriers to reach extractable resources. According to CNPC, it has drilled 45 8,000-meter-level ultra-deep wells this year and is developing drilling technology for wells of 10,000-meter-level to support deep exploration. Tarim Basin, where the Fuman Oilfield is located, is the largest ultra-deep oil and gas production base in China, producing more than 15 million tons of oil and gas each year. In the first nine months of this year, oil and gas production in the Tarim Oilfield reached 24.69 million tons, a net increase of 1 million tons year-on-year, a record high for this period. According to an official blueprint, the Tarim Oilfield will strive to produce 40 million tons of oil and gas annually by 2025 and 50 million tons by 2035. Progress has been made in other projects across the country to ensure energy stability in winter. In North China, State Power Investment Corp's Inner Mongolia branch, responsible for coal supply for North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and neighboring Jilin and Liaoning provinces, has begun shipments of 2 million tons of coal for local farmers and townships to ensure a warm winter. In Shanghai, a liquefied natural gas facility expansion in the Yangshan Deep Water Port has been approved, a step closer to the start of construction, thepaper.cn reported. With an investment of 17 billion yuan ($2.38 billion), the project will add capacity of 6 million tons a year. The project, which includes wharf engineering facilities, receiving stations and gas pipelines, is expected to be put into operation by 2030. China's energy supply is generally balanced and stable and the winter energy supply is ensured, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Sunday. This comes in sharp contrast with Europe, which likely faces a colder winter amid soaring energy prices.
NIGC to increase gas exports to Iraq - - - Head of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Dispatching Department announced an increase in Iran’s gas exports to Iraq in the current Iranian calendar year (began on March 21). Mohammadreza Joulaei made the remarks in a meeting with senior officials of the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity that was held in Isfahan, central Iran on Sunday, Shana reported. “Our relationship with Iraq is a strategic one,” Joulaei said in the meeting. Referring to the negotiations made in the meeting, the official said: “Annual and quarterly meetings are held with the officials of the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity to discuss the gas export contract with this country, so technical and operational issues of this contract were also discussed in this meeting.” Referring to the beginning of the cold season in Iran and the increase in gas consumption in the domestic sector, the NIGC official stated: “Considering the amount of consumption in the last six months and the demand increase in the next six months, the necessary technical and operational investigations have been carried out so that we do not have any problems for exports and the gas export is going to be carried out according to the agreement made with the Iraqi parties.” Ahmed Musa, spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, said on Sunday that his country paid all its debts for gas imports to Iran, adding an Iraqi delegation is visiting Iran to discuss an increase in gas imports. In an interview with Iraqi News Agency (INA), Mousa said that his country imports 20 million cubic meters of gas from Iran every day and that Iraq needs more gas now. The official added that his country has no debts to Iran over the gas imports, adding: "Negotiations, meetings, and visits to Iran are ongoing with the aim of coordination on an increase in gas imports."
Saudi Aramco to keep full oil supplies to North Asia in Nov despite OPEC+ cuts - Saudi Aramco has told at least five customers in North Asia they will receive full contract volumes of crude oil in November, several sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday. The full supply allocation comes despite a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman had said the real supply cut would be about 1 million to 1.1 million bpd. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to shoulder much of the production cuts because other OPEC+ members are falling behind output targets.
UAE president to meet Putin in Russia, a week after OPEC+'s deep output cuts - The president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, will head to Russia on Tuesday to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin.According to UAE state media WAM, both leaders will be discussing the countries' "friendly relations," alongside "regional and international issues and developments of common interest."The UAE ruler's visit comes a week after OPEC+, an alliance of oil producers which includes Russia and the UAE, agreed to impose deep output cuts to shore up crude prices despite calls from the U.S. to pump more to bolster the global economy.The Kremlin had on Sunday praised the organization's decision to slash output. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the move was a "balanced, thoughtful and planned work of the countries, which take a responsible position within OPEC," according to Russian media outlets.The cut had strained relations between the oil cartel and the United States.The White House said in a statement that President Joe Biden was "disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine." Following the announcement of the UAE leader's visit, Dubai's former finance chief said on Twitter that Mohamed was heading to Russia to "[defuse] a European war that exhausted the world."
Explainer: Why Russia Stands to Gain Most From OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts -- (Reuters) – OPEC+ surprise deep oil production cuts agreed this week are set to benefit Russia most while tightening supply to the West already suffering from record energy prices. OPEC+ and the West traded blame on Wednesday after the group reduced supply by a steep 2 million barrels per day or 2% of global supply in an already tight market. OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia said it was merely reacting to the soaring interest rates in the West where the central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve are “belatedly” reducing liquidity, triggering a dollar rise and making oil cheaper. Washington accused OPEC of siding with Russia and called the decision short-sighted saying the world was already suffering from high energy costs due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. OPEC+ includes 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 allies led by Russia. On Thursday, oil market watchers said that based on pure maths and OPEC+’s latest production data Russia was indeed set to benefit most from the decision. Moscow won’t have to reduce a single barrel of output as it is already producing well below the agreed target while benefiting from higher oil price which will be achieved through cuts mainly by OPEC Gulf producers. “The winner is Russia while the loser is the global consumer who does not need higher energy prices going into an economic slowdown,” The Kremlin said on Thursday the cuts were aimed at market stabilisation and confirmed OPEC+’s credentials as an organisation responsible for market stability. The cuts of 2 million bpd represent over 4 percent of OPEC+’s overall target production of 43.8 million. But the group has already been struggling to produce at targets before the cut, pumping 3.6 million barrels per day short of its output goals in August. The main laggards in the past few years have traditionally been Angola and Nigeria due to poor investment. In recent months, they were joined by Russia, which came under severe Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine and was pumping 9.9 million bpd in September versus its target of 11 million bpd.
IEA Warns of Global Recession, Slowing Oil Demand; U.S. Consumption Drops - A plan to slash oil production in November could send prices soaring, exacerbate already entrenched inflation in the United States and Europe, and push the global economy into a recession, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday. IEA researchers pointed to a recent OPEC-plus decision to cut oil output by 2 million b/d next month. The researchers said the move could drive supply/demand out of balance and bolster prices as inflationary headwinds threaten to cripple consumer spending and, by extension, major economies.The U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday said the consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, increased 8.2% in September from the same month a year earlier. That was down from a 2022 peak of 9.1% in June but still four times the level that Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) officials said is healthy. Lofty energy costs – including natural gas prices that doubled this year — have propelled inflation. The Fed has raised interest rates multiple times this year to slow inflation.“The relentless deterioration of the economy and higher prices sparked by an OPEC-plus plan to cut supply are slowing world oil demand,” IEA said in itsmonthly oil report. “With unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes taking their toll, higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession.” The oil cartel, composed of Saudi Arabia-led OPEC and allies including Russia, helped to drive up Brent crude prices more than 10% after its announced move last week. Further increases are widely expected when the producer group presses ahead with the output cuts next month. President Biden, along with myriad other U.S. politicians from both sides of the aisle, assailed the OPEC-plus decision. In addition to supply concerns, they said it would bolster Russia’s energy complex as the Kremlin wages war in Ukraine – a conflict the United States opposes. The sobering outlook from IEA, the Paris-based energy watchdog, came on the same day that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude supplies were rising while demand fades amid slowing economic activity. Overall petroleum demand in the United States was down 7% week/week at 19.3 million b/d for the week ended Oct. 6, EIA said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report. U.S. oil production last week, meanwhile, fell by 100,000 b/d to 11.9 million b/d, EIA said. That pushed output further below the 2022 high of 12.2 million b/d and the record level of 13.1 million b/d reached in March 2020.U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 9.9 million bbl last week, EIA said. At 439.1 million bbl, stocks were only 1% below the five-year average after trailing historic norms by much wider margins over the summer months.
Five Day Oil Rally Ends as Recession Fears Rebound | Rigzone -Oil markets slipped as concerns of slowing demand again came to the fore, adding resistance to a rally spurred by OPEC+’s output cut. West Texas Intermediate settled at $91 a barrel, ending a five-day run of gains in which futures climbed 17%. A tighter supply outlook following last week’s OPEC+ meeting gave crude its biggest weekly gain since March, but fears the US Federal Reserve will go on boosting rates to quell inflation caused equity markets to decline and the dollar to strengthen, making commodities that are priced in the currency less appealing. “Crude is in a corrective phase from last week’s $9/bbl rally,” “Overall global economic activity is expected to slow.” The US Fed has signaled a potential fourth 75 basis point hike in November. A US jobs report last week further rekindled concerns about continuing interest rate hikes. Oil markets continue to be buffeted by concerns about the global economy and the cuts announced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. Traders are closely watching for demand signals as growth is likely to suffer from central banks’ monetary policy. OPEC+’s output cuts, which drew rebuke from the US, could turn out to be much smaller in reality, but a slew of leading banks said it could still send prices higher this year. WTI for November delivery dipped $1.51 to settle at $91.13 a barrel. Brent for December settlement fell $1.73 to $96.19 a barrel. Key oil-market gauges have shown signs of increased bullishness since the OPEC+ decision last week. The spread between the nearest two December contracts for Brent -- a much-watched marker of the market’s health -- rallied to the strongest level since June. At the same time, options markets have seen a flurry of bullish call trades. On Friday, Brent options volumes were the highest since March as traders placed a series of wagers on rising prices.
Oil slips as recession fears outweigh tight supply prospects - Oil prices edged lower on Monday as investors weighed economic storm clouds that could foreshadow a global recession, and erode fuel demand, against potentially tighter supply. Brent crude futures fell 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $97.23 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $92.57 a barrel. U.S. Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans said there was a strong consensus at the Fed to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5% by March and hold it there. Stubbornly higher rates, which are aimed at giving the U.S. central bank time to evaluate the impact of inflation and allow clogged supply chains to clear, limited oil prices. Oil prices also struggled under a strengthening U.S. dollar , which rose for a fourth session. A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for non-American buyers. The prospect of tightening OPEC+ oil supplies limited declines in prices. But signs that the group's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, would continue to serve Asian customers at full levels lowered expectations of the cuts' impact. Saudi Aramco has told at least seven customers in Asia they will receive full contract volumes of crude oil in November ahead of the peak winter season, several sources with knowledge of the matter said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided last week to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. Brent and WTI posted their biggest weekly percentage gains since March after the reduction was announced. However, the cut has spurred a flurry of activity in the options market - but with more U.S. bettors opting for a bearish stance, data from CME Group showed. Concerns over still relatively robust demand as the pandemic has eased meeting potentially scarce supply have been deepened as the European Union late last week endorsed a G7 plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. The complicated new sanctions package could end up shutting in considerable supplies of Russia crude, analysts have warned. "A recessionary economic outlook will lead to lower oil demand," Fitch Ratings said on Monday. "However, we expect pricing volatility to remain high in the short term as geopolitical factors, such as further sanctions leading to a reduction in Russian exports." Those political factors could alter supply patters and cause greater price volatility, Fitch said. Meanwhile, services activity in China during September contracted for the first time in four months as COVID-19 restrictions hit demand and business confidence, data showed on Saturday. The slowdown in China adds to growing concerns over a possible global recession triggered by numerous central banks raising interest rates to combat high inflation.
Oil Extends Losses As Demand Concerns Weigh --Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, after having fallen nearly 2 percent in the previous session. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell 2.1 percent to $94.17 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were down 2.4 percent at $88.98. Investors fretted about a further hit to demand in China, as COVID infections ticked up ahead of 20th Party Congress and authorities vowed to stock to the zero-COVID policy. World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva both warned of recession risks, raising concerns over global demand. Fears of further monetary policy tightening also weighed after Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said there is a strong consensus at the Federal Reserve to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5 percent by February and hold it there for most of 2023. Separately, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard laid out a case for exercising caution, saying that previous rate increases were starting to slow the economy and the full brunt of tighter policy would not be felt for months to come.
Oil Settles Lower on China COVID Flare-Up, Recession Fear (Reuters) -Oil prices settled 2% lower on Tuesday, extending the previous session's almost 2% decline, as recession fears and a flare-up in COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns over global demand. World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Monday of a growing risk of global recession and said inflation remained a continuing problem. Brent crude settled down $1.90, or 2%, to $94.29 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $1.78, or 2%, to $89.35. "There is growing pessimism in the markets now," Oil surged early this year, bringing Brent close to its record high of $147 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns, but prices have slid on economic fears. U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week after having fallen the prior two weeks, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Fears of a further hit to demand in China also weighed. Authorities have stepped up coronavirus testing in Shanghai and other large cities as COVID-19 infections rise again. Oil also came under pressure from a strong dollar, which hit multi-year highs on worries about interest rate increases and escalation of the Ukraine war. [USD/] A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers with other currencies and tends to weigh on risk appetite. Losses were limited, however, by a tight market and last week's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. President Joe Biden is re-evaluating the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ announced last week it would cut oil production, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday. "An undersupply is even looming next year because the production cut is supposed to apply until the end of 2023, according to the OPEC+ decision," a Commerzbank report said.
Oil Edges Higher As Dollar Eases Ahead Of Fed Minutes --Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday after two consecutive sessions of losses. Prices received some support amid the threat of tighter supplies from OPEC and its partners. The upside, however, remained capped by growing risks of a global recession and tightening Covid-19 curbs in China. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.4 percent to $94.66 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were up 0.2 percent at $89.53. A slight pullback in the dollar and supply tightness caused by OPEC and allies-led output cuts and disruptions to Russian oil production helped support oil prices. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden warned Saudi Arabia that there would be "consequences'' for following the Riyadh-led alliance's move to cut oil production. His remarks came a day after White House officials said the administration must immediately freeze all cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales. Diesel prices are soaring in Europe and the United States, spurring a fresh bout of inflationary pressure ahead of a winter that is expected to see major supply disruption. The energy crisis in Europe is threatening to escalate into a global price war, German business paper Handelsblatt said. Citi Research expects U.S. crude prices to average $96 a barrel and Brent prices to average $101 per barrel in 2022 in response to tightening supplies due to the output cut.
WTI, Brent Fall 2% after OPEC Slashes World Demand Outlook - West Texas Intermediate futures fell for the third consecutive session on Wednesday after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its global demand projections through 2023, citing extended COVID-19 restrictions in China along with elevated inflation and rising interest rates in Europe and the United States. Wednesday's lower settlements in the crude complex follow the release of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report which revised lower its 2022 global demand projections by 500,000 bpd to reflect softening economic growth across key demand centers. With this, global oil demand is now expected to grow by about 2.6 million bpd this year, down from 3.4 million bpd seen just three months ago. For 2023, world oil demand growth was revised down 360,000 bpd to 2.34 million bpd, with developed countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development accounting for just 400,000 bpd of that increase compared with 2 million bpd coming from non-OECD nations. The monthly report somewhat defends Saudi Arabia's decision alongside 12 other OPEC countries and 10 non-OPEC oil producers led by Russia to slash OPEC+ output quotas by 2 million bpd beginning next month because of lower demand expectations. OPEC revised lower non-OPEC liquids production by 340,000 bpd in the fourth quarter to 66.78 million bpd, and expects output in 2023 at 67.13 million bpd, revised down 380,000 bpd from September. For the first quarter of 2023, non-OPEC liquids production was revised down a sizable 600,000 bpd to 66.56 million bpd. MOMR determined "solid increases in oil and gas rig counts and high fracking activity" in the United States are expected to support strong output, but "[l]ower-than-expected tight oil production in recent months necessitated a downward revision to the US liquids supply growth." OPEC said, "severe inflationary pressure, coupled with logistical bottlenecks and shortages of material and labour, are posing additional challenges." Further weighing on the complex, Reuters reported this week rising lockdowns and various degrees of controlling population movement in China amid an increase in infections blamed on greater domestic travel earlier in October. Citing the findings of Japan's Nomura Holdings, Reuters said 36 cities in China were under various degrees of lockdown or control affecting 196.9 million people on Monday, up from 179.7 million the prior week. At settlement, NYMEX November WTI futures were down $2.08 to $87.27 bbl, and ICE December Brent futures declined $1.84 to $92.45 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures settled up 0.20 cents at $3.9328 gallon, and the November RBOB contract gained 0.30 cents for a $2.6303 gallon settlement.
WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude, Gasoline Build - Oil prices fell for the 3rd straight day after OPEC/EIA cut their global demand growth forecasts amid recession fears“Risks are skewed to the downside, with slowing growth in the global economy,” OPEC’s Vienna-based research department said in the report. Combined with “a possible resurgence of Covid restrictions in China and elsewhere,” the oil market may miss out on the typical seasonal uptick in consumption, it said.Still, the demand revision from OPEC is eclipsed by the size of the cut announced by the cartel."This combination, in our view, probably supports elevated crude oil prices over the next 12 months -- but recession risk remains," said Stewart Glickman, analyst at CFRA, in a note.For now we look at signs of demand destruction in the API data... API
- Crude +7.054mm (+2.2mm exp)
- Cushing -750k
- Gasoline +2.008mm (-2.1mm exp) - biggest build since July
- Distillates -4.560mm (-2.3mm exp) - biggest draw since March 2022
We suspect some of this data is affected by Hurricane Ian, but for now, Crude stocks surged over 7mm barrels last week (well above expectations) - remember there was a 7.7mm drain from SPR. Gasoline inventories built (notably different from the draw expected) and distillates drew down more than expected...WTI was hovering around $87 ahead of the API print and rallied modestly on the data then gave it all back...
Oil Prices Crumble As Core U.S. Inflation Hits 40-Yr High - Oil prices fell on Thursday morning following new CPI data that showed core inflation in the United States had risen to the highest level in four decades. WTI crude prices fell 1.57% to $85.90, while Brent crude fell 1.16% to $91.38 per barrel on the news, which showed CPI came in higher than anticipated, renewing fears that the Federal Reserve could aggressively raise interest rates in November. That interest rate hike could further stymie economic growth, easing the demand for crude oil. Core inflation—a measure of price increases excluding food and energy costs—rose 6.6% over the last year—a level not seen since 1982, the US Labor Department shared on Thursday. Total inflation, which includes food and energy, rose 8.2% in September from September 2021. To compare, CPI rose 8.5% in July and 8.3% in August, from the respective year-ago periods. September’s inflation figures would have been worse had it not been for gasoline prices which fell in the month. The gasoline price index fell 4.9% in September. “The energy index declined 2.1 percent in September after falling 5.0 percent in August,” the US Labor Department Summary said. “The gasoline index fell 4.9 percent over the month following a 10.6-percent decrease in August. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 5.6 percent in September.) However, the index for natural gas increased in September, rising 2.9 percent after increasing 3.5 percent in August. The electricity index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent,” adding that the energy index rose 19.8 percent over the past 12 months. “The gasoline index increased 18.2 percent over the span and the fuel oil index rose 58.1 percent. The index for electricity rose 15.5 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for natural gas increased 33.1 percent over the same period.” U.S. retail prices for a gallon of gasoline were down on Thursday from Wednesday but are still up from the month-ago levels. On Thursday, gasoline prices averaged $3.913 per gallon, compared to $3.707 per gallon a month ago. Along with the crude oil price slide on Thursday, US stock futures fell. The dollar and Treasury yields rose. The inflation numbers portend an aggressive move by the Federal Reserve next month.
WTI Extends Gains As Production Slows, Despite Biggest Crude Build In 19 Months -- Oil prices extended losses this morning after the hotter-than-expected CPI amid global recession fears and on the heels of yesterday's OPEC/EIA demand growth outlook cuts and a bigger than expected crude inventory draw reported by API. However, after US cash equity markets opened, crude prices rebounded, erasing all the earlier losses“We just had this bigger than expected CPI number, which is a big demand destruction number, and we have fallen apart accordingly,” said Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA in New York.“If we post anything larger than 7 million in the EIA, you’re probably going to see this thing track lower again.”While some of this data is likely impacted by Hurricane Ian, it still paints a useful picture of where demand really is... DOE
- Crude +9.879mm (+2.2mm exp) - biggest build since March 2021
- Cushing -309k
- Gasoline +2.022mm (-2.1mm exp)- biggest build since July 2022
- Distillates -4.853mm (-2.3mm exp)- biggest draw since March 2022
The official data confirmed API's report with crude stocks soaring most since March 2021 last week, a distillates draw and gasoline build...The gain in US crude stocks at nearly 10m bbl was mainly because of the plunge in exports.US crude exports have slumped after staying strong for two weeks. The decline of over 1.6m b/d sent outflows to the lowest since August.Gasoline inventories remain the lowest seasonally since 2014, while on the West Coast, supplies are the lowest in over a decade.US refineries, which had been operating with over 90% of capacity for months, are now at 89.9%. Rates are the lowest since April with fall maintenance in full swing. The SPR saw a huge 7.7mm barrel drain last week (3rd largest ever) as the Biden administration grows increasingly desperate... the biggest 3 week drain ever...
Oil rises on bullish supply cues as markets mull inflation data - Oil rallied for the first time this week after a US crude report flagged potential bullish drivers, momentarily shrugging off hotter-than-expected inflation data. West Texas Intermediate futures settled near $89 a barrel after draws from distillate stockpiles and US strategic oil reserves signaled the potential for market tightness on the horizon, despite a larger-than-forecast 9.9 million barrel build in crude inventories. US equities recovered and Treasury yields fell back from highs as traders mulled the Federal Reserve’s next moves following the inflation report that bolstered the likelihood of further interest rate hikes, potentially threatening the growth outlook. “It’s a super bearish headline, but if you look at the underlying data, it tells a different story,” said Matt Sallee, portfolio manager at Tortoise when referring to this week’s Energy Information Administration report. “The combination of a big distillate draw, another big SPR draw and then a reversal in the exports -- I think if you back those things out, this was probably a more bullish report.” WTI futures sank over the prior three sessions on recession fears and moved below the 50-day moving average in intraday trading Wednesday and earlier Thursday, indicating the potential for higher prices. Earlier in the session, the International Energy Agency warned that production cuts agreed earlier this month by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies risk causing oil prices to spike and tipping the global economy into recession. The IEA report came as the outlook for global supply becomes ever more clouded. On Wednesday, the US cut its estimates for domestic oil output, making significant reductions to its 2023 estimates. Meanwhile, some Biden administration officials are growing concerned that a plan to cap the price of oil purchased from Russia may backfire, particularly after recent OPEC+ supply cuts. Crude rallied in the immediate aftermath of the cartel’s decision, pushing prices back up toward $95 amid a tighter supply outlook. Traders have also been grappling with risks to energy infrastructure after the Nord Stream pipeline was sabotaged and Russian President Vladimir Putin said any infrastructure in the world is at risk after the incident. WTI for November delivery rose $1.84 to settle at $89.11 a barrel. Brent for December settlement climbed $2.12 to $94.57 a barrel. There’s been a flurry of bullish oil option activity in recent days, with WTI call option volumes on Wednesday hitting the highest since 2019. The increase was driven in part by a series of wagers that prices could rally into the $120s. On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve showed officials committed to raising interest rates to a restrictive level in the near term and holding them there to curb inflation, potentially slowing growth.
US energy agency revises down oil price forecast for 2022, 2023 - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down its 2022 and 2023 forecast for global Brent crude oil prices on Thursday, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and decreasing petroleum demand. In the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA revised down the price of Brent crude for 2022 to an average of $102.09 per barrel and American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $95.74 a barrel in 2022. In the report last month, these figures were $104.21 and $98.07, respectively. For next year, the Agency expects the price of Brent crude to average $94.58 per barrel, and WTI to average $88.58 per barrel. The EIA said that crude oil prices have been subject to high levels of uncertainty due to geopolitical factors, uncertain OPEC+ production, and concerns that a global recession could reduce crude oil demand. 'We lowered our price forecast for 2023 by $2 per barrel compared with last month’s forecast, which largely reflected a 0.5 million barrels per day reduction in our forecast for global oil consumption in response to a lower forecast for global GDP from Oxford Economics,' it explained. The EIA noted that the possibility of petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth continues to create the potential for higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth creates the potential for lower prices. Crude oil output in the US is predicted to average 11.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, up from 11.25 million bpd in 2021. In 2023, crude oil output in the country is expected to set a record at 12.36 million bpd. The previous record set in 2019 was 12.3 million bpd. OPEC’s output is estimated to average 34.08 million bpd in 2022 and 34.37 million bpd in 2023. It predicts that non-OPEC liquids production will be 65.82 million bpd in 2022 and 66.36 million bpd next year. Thus, global crude oil production will average 99.9 million bpd in 2022 and 100.73 million bpd in 2023. The agency forecast that global oil demand grew by 2.1 million bpd and will reach 99.55 million bpd at the end of the year and 101 million bpd next year.
Oil prices fall more than 3% on recession worries --Oil prices plummeted more than 3% on Friday as global recession fears and weak oil demand, especially in China, outweighed support from a large cut to the OPEC+ supply target. Brent crude futures dropped $2.94, or 3.1%, to settle at $91.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $3.50, or 3.9%, to $85.61. The Brent and WTI contracts both oscillated between positive and negative territory for much of Friday but fell for the week by 6.4% and 7.6%, respectively. U.S. core inflation recorded its biggest annual increase in 40 years, reinforcing views that interest rates would stay higher for longer with the risk of a global recession. The next U.S. interest rate decision is due on Nov. 1-2. U.S. consumer sentiment continued to improve steadily in October, but households' inflation expectations deteriorated a bit, a survey showed. The U.S. dollar index rose around 0.8%. A stronger dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. In U.S. supply, energy firms this week added eight oil rigs to bring the total to 610, their highest since March 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has been fighting COVID-19 flare-ups after a week-long holiday. The country's infection tally is small by global standards, but it adheres to a zero-COVID policy that is weighing heavily on economic activity and thus oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday cut its oil demand forecast for this and next year, warning of a potential global recession. The market is still digesting a decision last week from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, when they announced a 2 million barrel per day (bpd) cut to oil production targets. Underproduction among the group means this will probably translate to a 1 million bpd cut, the IEA estimates. Saudi Arabia and the United States have clashed over the decision. Meanwhile, money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions by 20,215 contracts to 194,780 in the week to Oct. 11, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Oil Sells Off as Inflation Metrics Point to More Rate Hikes -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude accelerated losses in afternoon trade Friday amid a sharply stronger U.S. Dollar Index that rallied in response to fresh data pointing to expanding inflationary pressures in the coming months, with a large jump in the number of active oil rigs in the United States adding to the selling pressure. Baker Hughes Friday afternoon said the number of active oil-targeted rigs in the United States climbed eight to 610 in the week-ended Friday. That's the highest level since late March 2020 and one of the largest weekly increases since before summer and follows a downgrade in this year's domestic oil production by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. In their monthly Short-term Energy Outlook, EIA forecast U.S. oil production this year at 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd), and for output to increase to a record high 12.4 million bpd in 2023. All major forecasting agencies, including Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and International Energy Agency, downgraded their global oil demand projections for the remainder of the year, citing slowing economic growth and rising interest rates. IEA now projects global oil demand will contract by 340,000 bpd in the current fourth quarter, pressing year-over-year consumption growth to 1.9 million bpd in 2022 and to 1.7 million bpd next year. In its Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC cuts its global oil demand outlook for this year by 460,000 bpd from its projection in September. . Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook downgrading global economic growth, projecting a slowdown from 2021's 6% expansion rate to 3.2% this year and 2.7% in 2023. For the United States, IMF cut its growth projection for this year by 0.7% from July's outlook to 1.6% following a 5.7% expansion in 2021, and to further slow to 1% in 2023. In financial markets, U.S. dollar index powered higher against a basket of foreign currencies to settle the session at 113.202, pressuring front-month West Texas Intermediate futures. Renewed strength in the U.S. dollar follows the release of consumer sentiment index from University of Michigan Friday morning that showed inflation expectations unexpectedly climbed in early October. Median expected year-ahead inflation rate rose to 5.1%, with increases reported across age, income, and education, adding to the inflation fears. Consumer expectations for heightening and enduring inflation are problematic for Federal Reserve officials, as it prompts consumers to buy now, expecting price increases in the weeks and months ahead. This, in turn, feeds inflation, meaning the Fed will need to remain aggressive in lifting the federal funds rate. Friday's consumer sentiment report followed the release of consumer price index for September on Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics which confirmed market fears that inflation in the U.S. economy is becoming more entrenched, broadening into the services sector that generally comprise about 80% of economic output. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and gasoline prices, surged to 6.6% in September -- the highest reading since 1982. Following the CPI release, the CME Group's Fed Funds futures shows a 96.6% chance for the central bank to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points during their Nov. 1-2 meeting, which would be the fourth consecutive rate increase of this magnitude. At settlement, NYMEX November WTI futures fell $3.50 to $85.61 per barrel (bbl), and ICE December Brent futures dropped $2.94 to $91.63 bbl. NYMEX November ULSD futures retreated 11.46 cents to $3.9802 gallon, and November RBOB futures dropped 7.25 cents to $2.6309 gallon.
Oil prices tumble 7.6%; economic outlooks darken - Darkening economic outlooks overcame OPEC+’s efforts to support prices with a 2-million-barrel-a-day production cut and sent oil prices tumbling 7.6% this week. West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell four of five trading days, starting with a $1.51 drop Monday, an additional $1.78 fall Tuesday and a $2.08 decline Wednesday. Prices managed to gain $1.84 Thursday before giving that gain – and then some – Friday by sinking $3.50 or 3.9% to close at $85.61, down from $92.64 at last Friday’s close. The posted price ended the week at $82.09, according to Plains All American. Natural gas prices were also lower on the NYMEX, falling three of five trading days. The trading week got off to a rough start with a 31.3-cent plunge. That was followed by a 16.1-cent gain Tuesday, which was given back Wednesday. A 30-cent gain Thursday was almost erased by Friday’s 29-cent drop. Natural gas futures at the Henry Hub on NYMEX ended the week at $6.453 per Mcf, down from $6.748 at last Friday’s close. “The crude demand outlook continues to have bearish drivers from the world’s two largest economies, as the US seems like it will be driven to a recession by the inflation-fighting Fed and China will not likely have any major pivots with their zero COVID policy,” While US economic activity isn’t going to fall off a cliff, he wrote, it is weakening. The more immediate bearish driver for oil is the risks of more lockdowns from China, he added. “WTI crude should find some support at the $85 level, but if that breaks, technical selling could target the $82.50 region,” he concluded. The US Energy Information Administration forecast crude prices will remain below $100 through 2023 despite OPEC’s cuts as limited demand growth will partially offset price increases that would normally result from those production cuts. Though natural gas prices have retreated from 14-year highs, the EIA is forecasting they are still high enough to case consumer pain during the winter season, which it sets at October 2022 to March 2023. Approximately 90% of all US homes are heated primarily by natural gas or electricity, and higher wholesale prices for natural gas will lead to higher retail prices for both natural gas and electricity this winter. The EIA noted that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price on Sept. 30 was $6.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), which is 36% higher than last winter’s average. These price increases contribute to the forecast that residential natural gas prices this winter will be 22% higher than last winter and that residential electricity prices will be 6% higher than last winter. The agency’s base case scenario has the average household spending $931 during the winter season, up 28%. If winter is 10% colder, that rises to $1,096, up 51% over the previous winter. If winter is 10% warmer, expenditures fall to $862, up 19% over the previous year.
Australian government to detain women repatriated from Syria - Like the Liberal-National Coalition government before it, Australia’s Labor government is exploiting laws passed under the flag of the US-led “war on terror” to override basic democratic and legal rights. Last week, the government made it known, through the pages of the Murdoch media’s Australian newspaper, that 16 Australian women and 42 children would be repatriated after years of detention in hellhole conditions in northeastern Syria, only for the women to be detained immediately upon arrival in Australia. Syrian children hold hands as they wait for toys to be donated in a refugee camp for displaced people run by the Turkish Red Crescent in Sarmada district, on the outskirts north of Idlib, Syria, Friday, Nov. 26, 2021. [AP Photo/Francisco Seco] These wives and children of dead or former Islamic State (ISIS) members have been detained in tent encampments since the defeat of ISIS in March 2019. Previously, the Coalition government callously refused point blank to help them, resulting in illnesses and deaths among the children. But the Labor government has now taken a different tack. According to the newspaper, Labor’s “national security committee of cabinet convened in Canberra on Tuesday to discuss final details.” Some of the women are to be charged with terrorism-related criminal offences for entering Syria. The others will face courts to be subjected to control orders. These orders will force them to wear ankle monitoring devices and allow the police and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) to monitor their social media activity, internet use, communications, movements and associates. Supposedly, family and kinship groups will care for some children in the short term, while others will be placed in state care. Reportedly, 25 of the children are eight years or younger, and the youngest is just two. This will be the largest yet use of control orders, which override basic freedoms such as speech, movement, association and communication, and can reach the level of complete home detention. The police only have to assert that such an order would “substantially assist in preventing a terrorist act.” That is far less than evidence of criminal intent, let alone any plan or act. Control orders were introduced in 2005 by the Howard Coalition government, with Labor’s support, as a supposed response to an unspecified dire terrorist threat. But they have always been designed for wider use. Under the more than 120 “counter-terrorism” laws rubber stamped by Australia’s parliament since US President George W. Bush declared the “war on terror” in 2001, terrorism is defined so broadly that it can cover many forms of anti-government political activity. The Labor government is paving the way for the broader imposition of control orders, while also responding to “security” concerns expressed in Washington about the Syrian detention camps becoming a focus for ongoing anti-US sentiment throughout the Middle East. An October 3 the Australian editorial stated: “Security is paramount. That is why the US is keen to see the camps emptied as soon as possible, fearing a fresh security crisis could arise in such a hothouse environment.” Accordingly, senior Labor minister Bill Shorten told Nine media outlets that national security was the government’s paramount priority in repatriating the women and children. “I just want to reassure people it’s about national security first,” he said. For all the media demonisation of the women, ISIS is largely a creation of the drive by US imperialism and its allies to overturn the regime of Syrian President Assad. The real aim was, and remains, to secure control over the entire Eurasian landmass, where the US confronts Russia and China.
Iran opposes arming parties in Ukraine war - — In a meeting with the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski late on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian once again underscored that Tehran has not supplied any party with weapons to be used in the war in Ukraine. Amir Abdollahian reiterated that the principled position of Iran is to oppose arming any of the parties in the war with the aim of stopping the conflict. Several media reports have spoken of Iran providing drones to Russia during the Ukraine war. Iran’s top diplomat has explicitly rejected all these reports. Tehran is seeking a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, as evidenced by its efforts to deliver a peace initiative to the parties engaged in the war on July 31. The mediation was asked by the French President Emmanuel Macron during one of his phone calls with his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi. Previously, in a phone conversation with his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto on July 22, Amir Abdollahian reiterated that Iran supports diplomatic solution to spell the end of the Ukraine war. During the meeting, the two diplomats also exchanged views on the horizons of cooperation between the two countries in various political, economic, and cultural fields as well as consular issues. The Iranian foreign minister welcomed the activation of relations between the two countries in various fields and said there are no restrictions in promoting bilateral relations and using the existing capacities. Meanwhile, the Polish deputy foreign minister expressed his gratitude to the Iranian foreign minister for explaining Iran’s views on issues of mutual interest, and explained Warsaw’s views on various issues, including bilateral relations and important regional and international issues.
Russia strikes Kyiv after Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge attack - Russia unleashed a barrage of deadly attacks on cities across Ukraineon Monday, hitting the heart of the country's capital, Kyiv, as part of a wave of strikes against civilians and infrastructure not seen since the earliest days of the war.From Lviv in the west to Kharkiv in the northeast, missiles tore through rush-hour traffic and into energy facilities, in apparent retaliation for a blast that damaged a key bridge to the annexed Crimean Peninsula over the weekend.Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a televised address that his military had launched a "massive strike" on Ukraine's "energy, military command and communications facilities," telling his security council it was revenge for what he said was Kyiv's long track record of "terrorist" actions, including the bridge blast.He also issued a threat."If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory continue, Russia’s responses will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats posed to Russia," he said. "No one should have any doubts about this.”After a series of humiliating battlefield setbacks that have piled pressure on Putin, the attacks were a sudden escalation that showed Moscow retained the capacity to terrorize Ukraine's population, if not defeat its military. They shattered months of relative calm in Kyiv and other areas far from the front lines.At least six people were killed and 51 others were injured in the capital, the city's military administration said. Across the country, at least 19 people were dead and 105 were others injured as of early Tuesday, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.Russia used missiles and Iranian-built drones to target civilians and energy facilities throughout the country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a recorded video.“They want panic and chaos. They want to destroy our energy system. They are hopeless,” he said.Critical infrastructure facilities were damaged in Kyiv and 12 regions of the country, Ukraine's state emergency services said, with electricity supply partly disrupted in 15 regions. Significant internet outages were also reported across the country by the monitoring group NetBlocks.The blasts came hours after Putin first accused Ukraine of "terrorism"over the huge explosion that severely damaged the bridge connecting Russia and annexed Crimea on Saturday, dealing a strategic and symbolic blow to his campaign. Kyiv has not taken responsibility for the incident, which the Russians said killed at least three people and was caused by a truck bomb.A series of failures on the battlefield and the chaotic call-up of hundreds of thousands of military reservists have led to growing criticism of the Kremlin at home, with some prominent figures urging escalation to reverse the course of the conflict.
Russia rains missiles down on Ukraine's capital and other cities in retaliation for Crimea bridge blast - -Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that people were killed and injured in multiple missile strikes across Ukraine, including the first bombardment of the capital, Kyiv, in months. CBS News senior foreign correspondent Charlie D'Agata said the strikes, which could signal a major escalation in the eight-month-old war, appeared to be entirely punitive — retaliation meant to terrorize Ukrainian civilians in densely-populated urban neighborhoods, close to government buildings, with one even hitting a children's playground. The lethal barrage smashed into civilian areas, knocking out power and water, shattering buildings and killing at least 14 people. The bombardment came two days after Russia suffered a serious blow with the bombing that damaged its sole bridge to Crimea. Ukraine's Emergency Service said nearly 100 people were wounded in the morning rush hour attacks that Russia launched from the air, sea and land against at least 14 regions, spanning from Lviv in the west to Kharkiv in the east. Many of the attacks occurred far from the war's front lines. Though Russia said missiles targeted military and energy facilities, some struck civilian areas while people were heading to work and school. One hit a playground in downtown Kyiv and another struck a university. The attacks plunged much of the country into a blackout, depriving hundreds of thousands of people of electricity and creating a shortage so severe Ukrainian authorities announced they would have to stop power exports to Europe starting Tuesday. Power outages also often deprive residents of water, given the system's reliance on electricity to run pumps and other equipment. The head of Ukraine's law enforcement said Monday's attacks damaged 70 infrastructure sites, of which 29 are critical. Zelenskyy said that of the 84 cruise missiles and 24 drones Russia fired, Ukrainian forces shot down 56. Andriy Yermak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the strikes had no "practical military sense" and that Russia's goal was to cause a "humanitarian catastrophe." Russian President Vladimir Putin said his forces used "precision weapons" to target key energy infrastructure and military command facilities in retaliation for Kyiv's "terrorist" actions — a reference to Ukraine's attempts to repel Moscow's invasion forces, including an attack Saturday on a key bridge between Russia and the annexed Crimean Peninsula that Putin called a "terrorist act" masterminded by Ukrainian special services. Putin vowed a "tough" and "proportionate" response should Ukraine carry out further attacks that threaten Russia's security. "No one should have any doubts about it," he told Russia's Security Council by video.
Putin’s ‘harsh’ retaliatory strikes on Ukraine escalate tensions – Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered a barrage of rocket attacks against Kyiv and nine other Ukrainian cities, an action the Russian president himself characterized as a “harsh” response to an explosion on a crucial bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimean peninsula. The White House condemned the attacks, which killed at least 11 people, saying they had no military purpose and demonstrated “the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people.” “These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” President Biden said in the statement. The escalation comes as the U.S., allies and security experts have raised the alarm about the prospect of nuclear confrontation to its most dangerous point since the Cold War. Experts characterized the overnight missile attacks as a brutal but somewhat predictable response by Putin to the bridge attack, and one that was less risky than the use of a tactical nuclear weapons that he has threatened. The Russian president retaliated after an explosion on Saturday damaged the Kerch Bridge, a Russian rail and road line to Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Putin had celebrated its opening in 2018, and it is viewed as a key supply route for Russia’s military offensive on the south of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have long viewed the bridge as a strategic target that would strike at Putin’s heart and Moscow’s military operations and embarrass the Russia leader. Putin blamed “Ukraine’s special services” as the “initiators, performers and masterminds” of the bridge attack. Ukrainian officials have not publicly taken responsibility for the attack, but The New York Times reported that a senior Ukrainian official corroborated Russian reports that Ukraine was responsible. Close to 100 people were injured by Russia’s wide-scale attacks against Ukraine on Monday. Critical infrastructure was hit, temporarily disrupting water and electricity services, Ukrainian officials said. The strikes on Kyiv raised the potential of foreign governments being caught up in the damage — with an unused German visa office coming under fire on Monday. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink wrote on Twitter that the U.S. Embassy Kyiv team is “safe after another wave of Russian strikes on civilian sites. Grateful to those responding and working to keep us safe, and heartbroken for those hurt, here and across Ukraine.” Moldova’s foreign minister said that at least three Russian cruise missiles launched from its Black Sea Fleet had crossed into its airspace, condemning it as a violation. “I think the international community will certainly have a reason to be more concerned and see it as a major escalation,” said Marcin Zaborowski, security expert at GLOBSEC, a think-tank based in Bratislava, Slovakia.
Sirens sound across Ukraine as Russia strikes cities again; Kyiv asks allies for air defense weapons - Air raid sirens are sounding out across multiple regions in Ukraine again on Tuesday with the emergency services warning of more Russian strikes, a day after a series of Russian attacks left at least 19 people dead and over a hundred injured. Ukrainian officials reported that energy infrastructure in the western city of Lviv had been hit earlier, while the city of Zaporizhzhia in the south was also targeted this morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Monday that Ukraine will not be intimidated by the strikes that took place Monday and which targeted various regions including the capital Kyiv. Urgent work was being done to repair and restore power supplies damaged during the strikes, he added. The multiple attacks by Russia came several days after a blast partially destroyed the Kerch Bridge that links the Russian mainland to Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. Kyiv has not said whether it was responsible for the attack on the bridge, although the blast was widely seen as humiliating for Moscow and President Vladimir Putin. The leaders of the Group of Seven of the world's most developed economies are holding an emergency meeting Tuesday to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine. Addressing the meeting via videolink, Zelenskyy asked for more air defense weapons. Top officials in the United States, European Union and at the United Nations expressed shock and horror Monday over the strikes. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was "shocked" by the attacks, saying through a spokesperson that they represented an escalation of the war. The strikes have damaged significant parts of Ukraine's energy grid, prompting the nation's energy ministry to announce it would halt exports of electricity to the EU starting Tuesday..
Terror On Crimea Bridge Forces Russia To Unleash Shock'n'Awe by Pepe Escobar - The western narrative of a 'losing Russia' has just been decimated by Moscow's blitzkrieg against Ukraine and its foreign-backed terror operations... The terror attack on Krymskiy Most – the Crimea Bridge – was the proverbial straw that broke the Eurasian camel’s back. Russian President Vladimir Putin neatly summarized it: “This is a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the critical civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation.” The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, confirmed face-to-face with Putin that Terror on the Bridge was carried out by the SBU – Ukrainian special services. Bastrykin told Putin, “we have already established the route of the truck, where the explosion took place. Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia, Krasnodar… The carriers have been identified. With the help of operatives of the FSB, we managed to identify suspects.” Russian intel leaked crucial info to military correspondent Alexander Kots. The cargo was ordered by a Ukrainian citizen: explosives packed in 22 pallets, in rolls of film under plastic wrap, were shipped from Bulgaria to the Georgian port of Poti. Afterwards, the cargo was loaded onto a truck with foreign license plates and proceeded overland to Armenia. Clearance at the Armenia-Russia border was smooth – according to the rules of the Eurasian Customs Union (both Russia and Armenia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU). The cargo evidently avoided detection through X-rays. This route is standard for truckers traveling to Russia. The truck then re-entered Georgia and crossed the border into Russia again, but this time through the Upper Lars checkpoint. That’s the same one used by thousands of Russians fleeing partial mobilization. The truck ended up in Armavir, where the cargo was transferred to another truck, under the responsibility of Mahir Yusubov: the one that entered the Crimean bridge coming from the Russian mainland. Very important: the transport from Armavir to a delivery address in Simferopol should have happened on October 6-7: that is, timed to the birthday of President Putin on Friday the 7th. For some unexplained reason, that was postponed for a day. The driver of the first truck is already testifying. Yusubov, the driver of the second truck – which exploded on the bridge – was “blind:” he had no idea what he was carrying, and is dead. What has been revealed in public by Russian intelligence tells only part of the story. An incandescent assessment received by The Cradle from another Russian intel source is way more intriguing.At least 450 kg of explosives were employed in the blast. Not on the truck, but mounted inside the Crimea Bridge span itself. The white truck was just a decoy by the terrorists “to create a mirage of cause and effect.” When the truck reached the point on the bridge where the explosives were mounted, the explosion took place.
We've Never Been Closer To A Conflict Between Russia & NATO, Warns Top Czech General - It is impossible to hope for a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, according to the chief of the General Staff of the Czech Army Russia and NATO have never been so close to actual direct conflict, conventional or nuclear, than they are now, said the head of the General Staff of the Czech Army, Karel Řehka, at Monday’s conference on Russian power and influence against Central Europe.The general said that a conflict between Russia and NATO would have a significant impact on Czechia. He described the situation as “serious,” saying that despite decades of animosity, the threat of an outright conflict between the two powers is now dire.Řehka also said the “warning period” before a possible conflict on the European battlefield can be relatively short; however, he called it an advantage that NATO now has a clearly defined adversary in Europe.“Another thing that has changed for me as a soldier is that I have a clearly defined adversary here in Europe,” he said. “We were ashamed to call Russia a threat or an adversary or something like that while they label us that way, treat us that way,” Řehka added.“It must be said that as the chief of the General Staff, I am positive that if I am going to fight someone here on the European battlefield, I know who it is. Currently, most likely, it is the Russian Federation,” Řehka claimed.Řehka said he believes it is impossible to hope for a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.“Anything can happen, but I don’t see it,” he said. According to him, the conflict also has no good solution.“Now, we’re talking about how bad — more or less — the solution will be going forward,” he said.
China and India, two of Russia's biggest allies, call for de-escalation in Ukraine -- China and India have both called for de-escalation between Russian and Ukrainian forces after deadly missile strikes occurred Monday across Ukraine, per the New York Times. China and India are two of Russia's biggest allies, and both have refrained from criticizing the Russian invasion since it began in February. However, neither statement about the long-range missile strikes contained strong criticism of Russia's actions. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, said at a press briefing that "all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity" and that "support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis," per the Times. Arindam Bagchi, a spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said "India is deeply concerned at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, including [the] targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians," the Times reported. The statements are the latest indicator that both countries are continuing to distance themselves from Russia as the war in Ukraine drags on. China's President Xi Jinping met with Vladimir Putin last month in their first in-person encounter since Russian forces launched their Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The meeting marked a show of diplomatic support for the Russian president, even as Putin acknowledged that Beijing may have "questions and concerns" regarding the war, Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reports. Meanwhile, India, one of the U.S.'s most valued partners, has until now taken a neutral position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Axios Dave Lawler writes.
US-instigated tensions around Korean Peninsula intensify -The United States is continuing to ramp up tensions with North Korea following a series of North Korean missile tests even as Washington intensifies its confrontation with China. The US is exploiting these missile launches as the pretext for its military build-up against China, particularly in North East Asia alongside its military allies—Japan and South Korea. North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests between September 25 and October 9. The latest launch took place shortly before 2 a.m. Sunday morning when Pyongyang fired two, short-range ballistic missiles (SRMB) into the Sea of Japan. In total, the North has launched 12 projectiles, including sending an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRMB) over Japan on October 4. It was the first missile North Korea has launched over Japan since 2017. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, right, pose for the media before their meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 17, 2021. After Tokyo, President Joe Biden’s top diplomat and defense chief are traveling to South Korea after North Korea made sure it had their attention by warning the United States to refrain from causing trouble amid deadlocked nuclear negotiations. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man, Pool) On Monday, which was also the 77th Party Foundation Day, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the missile drills took place “under the simulation of loading tactical nuclear warheads.” The exercises confirmed “the order of taking tactical nuclear warheads out and transporting them and of managing them in a rapid and safe way at the time of operation.” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was quoted as saying, “This is the verification of the operation posture of our war deterrent and, at the same time, an occasion that proved the reliability of the thorough preparedness of the state nuclear defense posture.” North Korea is responding to the US war planning in the region, which is primarily aimed at China as Washington and Tokyo, backed by South Korea, attempt to provoke a war over Taiwan. The US plans include a return to large-scale military exercises with South Korea and Japan on China’s doorstep. At the same time, Washington is creating a situation to which Pyongyang feels it must respond. The US had halted large-scale joint military exercises with South Korea under the previous Donald Trump administration in a tacit agreement with Pyongyang to place a moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.
The French call for NATO exit - Thousands of angry French protesters have gathered in the French capital to call for the country’s withdrawal from the U.S.-led NATO military alliance. The protesters have also called for the resignation of the country’s President Emmanuel Macron. The demonstration reflects similar rallies being held across Europe in opposition to their respective government’s support for the war in Ukraine. The constant supply of arms by mainly NATO members has prolonged the conflict in Eastern Europe, leading to the suffering of civilians caught up in the cross fire. When Russia expressed legitimate concerns about the NATO military’s eastward expansion toward its border, it opened the door to discussion, negotiation and proposals on security guarantees. However, these were ignored which many critics said, at the time, will lead to a military confrontation that will hurt ordinary Europeans. In this case, Ukrainian civilians are suffering from the human cost and ordinary civilians are falling into poverty. Russia’s sense of insecurity in the face of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization seemed quite genuine, but critics say the media coverage has dismissed Moscow's initial concerns. Opposition to NATO has been strong in Europe. The military alliance’s summits are always met with anti-war demonstrations. In June this year, protesters marched during an anti-NATO rally ahead of the summit that was held in Madrid. The organizers said the American-led military alliance is not the solution to the war in Ukraine. U.S. arms manufacturers have made lucrative profits from the war. Last month, an estimated 70,000 people protested in Prague against the Czech government, calling on the ruling coalition to do more to control soaring energy prices and voicing opposition to the European Union and NATO. For many years, the Kremlin has made it clear that if NATO continued to mass troops and weapons on the Russian border, the expansion would likely be met with serious resistance by the Russians, even with military action. That view was not just limited to Russian officials. Even some prominent American foreign policy experts backing the same possible scenario. The current director of the CIA, William Burns, has been warning about the provocation and consequences of NATO’s expansion on Russia for more than 20 years now. On the other hand, Europe’s decision to cave into American pressure and impose unprecedented sanctions on Moscow has heavily restricted the gas supplies to the continent which have instead pushed energy prices up, leaving many in poverty. Europe relied on 40% of Russian gas before the conflict erupted.
'The Worst Is Yet to Come': IMF Warns Severe Global Recession Is on the Horizon -The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday became the latest prominentglobal institution to warn that the world economy is barreling toward a potentially devastating recession as central banks aggressively raise interest rates, Russia's war in Ukraine rages, and pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions persist.In its new World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for next year in the face of myriad "steep challenges" and warned that "the worst is yet to come" for many countries as a strong U.S. dollarworsens debt burdens and costs-of-living crises in developing nations."Monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation.""Risks to the outlook remain unusually large and to the downside," the report states. "Monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation... More energy and food price shocks might cause inflation to persist for longer. Global tightening in financing conditions could trigger widespread emerging market debt distress."The IMF expects inflation, which is afflicting countries across the globe, to remain elevated through next year even as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other powerful central banks attempt to tamp down demand, risking mass job loss and a worldwide economic crisis.Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's director of research, cautioned in a blog post Tuesday that central banks could hurl the global economy into an "unnecessarily severe recession" if they go too far with interest rate increases, echoing a concern voiced in recent weeks by the World Bank, theUnited Nations, and progressive economists."Financial markets may also struggle with overly rapid tightening," Gourinchas added.In an interview with The New York Times, Gourinchas said the IMF expects "about a third of the global economy to be in a technical recession"—defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction—in 2023.In a separate report published Tuesday as finance ministers traveled to Washington, D.C. for the IMF and World Bank's annual meeting, the IMF observed that "financial stability risks have increased," adding to simmering fears of a global financial collapse and anxiety over continued economic turmoil in the United Kingdom."Many advanced economies and emerging markets may face housing-market-related risks as mortgage rates rise and lending standards tighten, squeezing potential borrowers out of the market," the IMF's new Global Financial Stability Report notes. "If further adverse shocks were to realize, tighter financial conditions may trigger market illiquidity, disorderly sell-offs, or distress."
No Pivot? BOE Says Rate Hikes Will Continue – Inflation Must Be Stopped - In a market environment where the only hope left is a central bank pivot away from rate hikes and back to QE, any slight detour by any central bank in the west is now put under a microscope with excitement as if stocks are about to be saved. The Bank of England's minimal intervention in long term gilt purchases to stave off a collapse in the UK pension system recently had investors buzzing with dreams that this was the beginning of a pivot by other central banks back to stimulus. This is not the case. As it turns out, the two week long BOE intervention is nothing more than a drop in the ocean of stimulus that would be needed to reverse course on the steady decline of stocks, and central bank officials warn that this is not the end. Nowhere close. BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden recently indicated that the bank intends to charge forward on interest rate hikes, suggesting that this is the only way to tame the ongoing inflation crisis. Price inflation along with a slowdown in GDP is culminating in stagflationary conditions in many countries, including the UK. This is a direct result of years of central bank intervention, pumping out trillions in QE just to avoid a deflationary event in markets and keep the “too big to fail” corporations alive. But there are always consequences for every policy action. Inflation/stagflation gives central banks license to pursue aggressive interest rate increases and general fiscal tightening, and they are taking full advantage of the opportunity. Multiple banks including the Federal Reserve have indicated that more hikes are on the way, with rates hovering dangerously close to levels that would make bond purchases untenable and corporate stock buybacks unlikely. With investors heavily addicted to QE, the assumption for the past decade has been that stocks cannot lose. Today's retail buyers cannot fathom a scenario in which central banks do not step in the moment equities lose 10% or more. This has created incredible weakness in the investment community and fostered a lack of fortitude. It has also contributed to an environment where price discovery is an anomaly and investing based on company research is considered “archaic.” The only strategy in markets that modern investors know is “Buy the f'ing dip!” Dave Ramsden puts a heavy damper on this cultism, essentially betraying the “new normal” model and leaving markets scrambling to understand what is happening. He notes: "Unlike earlier inflationary episodes, where we saw more persistence in inflation caused by ineffective policy and policy frameworks, this time we have a monetary policy framework which empowers us to take action...” "However difficult the consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, consistent with the remit given to us."
Bank of England Bought Only Small Amounts of Bonds even Today, Warns Pension Funds They Have “Only Three Days Left” to Unwind Derivatives with BOE Support -by Wolf Richter - The Bank of England announced on September 28 that it would buy up to £5 billion per day in long-dated government bonds “to help restore market functioning and reduce any risks from contagion.” This was hugely ballyhooed as a “pivot” on the internet and in the US financial media. Yesterday it came out with an even more hugely ballyhooed announcement that it would double its potential bond purchases to £10 billion per day for the rest of the week. And today, it came out with an even more hugely ballyhooed announcement that it would “expand” the bond purchases. Throughout it maintained that it would “cease all gilt purchases” on Friday, October 14.And yet, despite all the hoopla, the BOE has actually bought just a small fraction of the bonds that it said it might buy. In total, since September 28, the were 8 days of “up to £5 billion” per day in purchases and 2 days of “up to £10 billion” per day, for a total of £60 billion.And yet… through today, it purchased only £7.2 billion in total over the entire 10-day period, with four days of zero or near-zero purchases. It purchased only 12% of the amounts it said it might purchase. The chart shows the huge and growing gap between its cumulative purchases (red line) and its cumulative announced potential purchases (green line). The actual purchases were in effect minimal so far:The BOE is caught between 10% inflation it needs to crack down on with big rate hikes and lots of QT and a crisis over derivatives that leveraged UK pension funds blew their brains out with.The relatively puny amounts of actual purchases show that the BOE is trying to calm the waters around the gilts market enough to give the pension funds some time to unwind in a more or less orderly manner whatever portion ofthe £1 trillion in “liability driven investment” (LDI) funds they cannot maintain.The small scale of the intervention also shows that the BOE is not too upset with the gilts yields that rose sharply in the run-up to the crisis, triggering the pension crisis, and have roughly remained at those levels. The 10-year gilt yield today at 4.44% was roughly unchanged from yesterday and just below the September 27 spike peak.And it makes sense to have these kinds of yields in the UK, and it would make sense for these yields to be much higher, given that inflation has spiked to 10%, and yields have not kept up with it, nor have they caught up with it. And to fight this raging inflation, the BOE will need to maneuver those yields far higher still:So today, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Washington D.C., warned these pension fund managers that the BOE will only provide this level of support, however little it may be, through the end of the week, to smoothen the gilt market and give the pension funds a chance to unwind in a more or less orderly manner the portions of their LDI funds that they cannot maintain.“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now,” he said “You’ve got to get this done.”
Liz Truss panics as markets keep plunging – -Try as she might, Liz Truss just can't calm the markets. Despite reversing her plan to cut tax for the highest earners, bringing forward a more detailed budget statement by almost a month and halting the appointment of a controversial senior civil servant to oversee the Treasury, the Bank of England was again forced to step in to try to stabilize market turbulence. Insiders pointed to the surprise appointment of James Bowler to the Treasury top job, passing over Antonia Romeo, who it was widely briefed had got the role, as a sign of No. 10's anxiety. “The PM is panicking and reaching for almost anything that she can do to calm the situation. She was so burnt by the fallout from mini-budget that anything that seemed bold, she now wants to massively trim back,” said a senior Whitehall official. Treasury officials say that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tone in the past week has become markedly more conciliatory as he tries to steady the buffs. But in spite of these U-turns, the current market unease may be out of the government’s hands. The so-called mini budget came at a particularly fragile time for the economy, caused by high inflation and the Bank of England's attempts to end a policy that saw it buy up huge quantities of government debt, originally an attempt to stabilize the economy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Kwarteng's tax cuts, presented without any detail about how they would be funded, spooked the markets, triggering a crisis at U.K. pension funds because the huge spike in yields forced them to bonds — but that then forced prices down further. The Bank of England intervened with a £65 billion check book to give pension funds more time to raise cash and stop the so-called doom loop taking hold. Governor Andrew Bailey said Tuesday the Bank's emergency support will definitely end Friday, prompting fears this may not be enough time.
Truss dumps U.K. corporation tax freeze plan after firing ally - Liz Truss scrapped her plan to freeze corporation tax next year in another dramatic U-turn, hours after she fired her ally Kwasi Kwarteng and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt as U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer. The humiliating reversal follows three weeks of market turmoil since Sept. 23, when Kwarteng announced a massive program of unfunded tax cuts. Faced with no detail on how the government could make the sums add up, traders drove the pound to a record low against the dollar and forced the Bank of England into an emergency intervention to support the bond market. “It is clear that part of our mini budget went further and faster than the markets were expecting,” Truss said Friday in a short press conference. “So the way we are delivering our mission right now has to change.” Truss’s decision means corporation tax will now rise to 25 per cent from 19 per cent next year, as had been planned by her predecessor, Boris Johnson and his chancellor, Rishi Sunak. The prime minister also said that spending will “grow less rapidly than previously planned.” She’ll now hope her about-turn -- which she said is worth £18 billion a year to the public purse -- along with Hunt’s appointment, will be enough to soothe the market jitters. “What I’ve done today is made sure that we have economic stability in this country,”Truss said. “Jeremy Hunt as chancellor is somebody who shares my desire for a high-growth, low-tax economy. But we recognize because of current market issues, we have to deliver the mission in a different way.” Nevertheless, the pound extended losses on Friday, while 10-year gilts trimmed gains after Truss spoke. Her position hangs in the balance after less than three weeks in office, with members of her own Conservative Party openly plotting against her. Far from strengthening her hand, Truss’s nervous performance in the press conference has made it less likely that she survives as prime minister, according to three Conservative MPs who spoke on condition of anonymity. One pointed to a lack of detail about her tax plans and another expressed astonishment she only devoted eight minutes to explain her decision to fire her chancellor. The third predicted she will be gone within weeks -- if not days. Truss’s reversal is also a victory of sorts for Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, after the central bank was forced into the contradictory position of buying bonds to shore up the gilt market while raising rates to try to rein in inflation. This week, Bailey reiterated that the emergency program would end as planned on Friday, putting the BOE’s credibility on the line in the face of pressure to extend the purchases. The ongoing market jitters appear to have forced the government into changing its mind on tax. Kwarteng earlier posted his resignation letter on Twitter, saying the premier had asked him to go. The two politicians had portrayed themselves as being in lockstep on the economy, and had staked their reputations on an all-out push for growth when the now former chancellor announced his economic strategy on Sept. 23. “We share the same vision for our country and the same firm conviction to go for growth,” the premier wrote in her reply to Kwarteng, which was emailed by her office. As well as appointing Hunt, Truss replaced Kwarteng’s deputy, Chris Philp, with Edward Argar. Philp moved to a ministerial post in the Cabinet Office.
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