Interest rates are coming down in Europe. The Fed won’t follow yet | CNN Business— The European Central Bank cut interest rates Thursday, moving before the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs as inflation recedes following years of rate hikes.The first ECB rate cut in nearly five years takes the benchmark rate in the 20 countries that use the euro down to 3.75% from an all-time high of 4%, where it had stood since September.The move will bring some relief to companies and consumers, many of whom have felt the financial strain of the rapid run-up in interest rates since late 2021.But the ECB cautioned that the fight to control price rises wasn’t completely over yet and that it wasn’t yet committed to further rate cuts.“Despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year,” the central bank said in a statement.Speaking to journalists, ECB President Christine Lagarde — who donned a necklace in the shape of the words “In charge” — emphasized that the central bank would continue to follow “a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”“We are not precommitting to a particular rate path,” she said.Major central banks started raising borrowing costs as inflation soared, driven higher by the end of the pandemic and the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Price rises in the eurozone, the United States and the United Kingdom have since slowed, bringing the annual inflation rate down from its peak between 9% and 11% toward the 2% targeted by the respective central banks.The ECB’s decision follows a rate cut by the Bank of Canada Wednesday, which became the first G7 central bank to reduce borrowing costs in the past few years. Central banks in Switzerland and Sweden have also cut interest rates this year.Traders are all but certain the Fed will keep rates on hold at its meeting next week, and again in July. The Bank of England is likewise not expected to cut rates at its meeting on June 20, which comes just weeks before the UK holds a general election.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$107 Billion in May, -$1.71 Trillion from Peak, to $7.26 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020 --By Wolf Richter -Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $107 billion in May, to $7.26 trillion, the lowest since December 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.71 trillion.At its last FOMC meeting, the Fed outlined how it will slow QT in order to get the balance sheet down as far as possible without blowing anything up. The idea is to slowly approach the unknown level below which liquidity is too low, to avoid another debacle, such as the repo market blowout in September 2019 that caused the Fed to undo a big part of QT-1. That’s to be avoided this time. May was the last month at the old pace of QT. Starting in June, the cap for the Treasury runoff will $25 billion, instead of $60 billion. But the cap for the MBS runoff has effectively been removed: whatever MBS come off, will just come off, and goodbye; any amount over $35 billion will be reinvested in Treasury securities, not in MBS, in line with the plan to get rid of MBS entirely over the “longer term.” Sometimes folks say that the Fed should bring the balance sheet back down to $900 billion where it had been in 2008 before QE, and anything less is chickenshit.But wait… currency in circulation. From the first day of its existence, the Fed’s assets have risen roughly in parallel with what was its largest liability: currency in circulation (paper dollars, AKA “Federal Reserve Notes”). The amount of currency in circulation is entirely demand based: When you try to withdraw $100 from the ATM, you expect the ATM to have the $100. Currency in circulation has quadrupled from $600 billion in 2003 to $2.35 trillion today. And assets must rise with that liability.Between 2003 and August 2008 (just before QE started), the Fed’s total assets rose by 26%, from $720 billion at the beginning of 2003, to $910 billion in August 2008 (total assets in red, currency in circulation in blue).Total assets are so jagged because the Fed used overnight repos on a daily basis to provide liquidity to, or drain liquidity from the banking system via its Standing Repo Facility. Those repos were on top of a more or less steadily growing base of Treasury securities. The red line also includes the Fed’s other assets such as gold and the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).In addition: During the Financial Crisis, the government moved its checking accounts from private banks (JPMorgan primarily) to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, out of fear that the banking system would collapse and wipe out its checking account or whatever. This Treasury General Account (TGA) has a balance of $703 billion currently, which is a liability for the Fed (money that the Fed owes the government). So this was added to the balance sheet in 2009. With the $2.35 trillion in currency in circulation, that’s already over $3 trillion.In addition, the Fed has other liabilities — primarily reserves and ON RRPs — which are now shrinking under QT (all in our most recent update of the Fed’s balance sheet liabilities). QT by category.
- Treasury securities: -$57 billion in May, -$1.31 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.46 trillion, the lowest since September 2020.The Fed has now shed 40% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added during pandemic QE.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off was capped at $60 billion per month through May, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS.Starting in June, the roll-off will be capped at $25 billion, minus inflation protection from the TIPS.
- Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$17 billion in May, -$386 billion from the peak, to $2.35 trillion, the lowest since July 2021. The Fed has shed 28% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But sales of existing homes have plunged, and mortgage refinancing has collapsed, and so fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have been reduced to a trickle. So the MBS have come off the balance sheet at a pace that’s far below the $35-billion cap.Under the new version of QT, the cap for MBS has effectively been removed. If over $35 billion in MBS come off, they’ll just come off, and goodbye, but the amount over $35 billion will be replaced by Treasury securities.
- Discount Window: -$600 million in May, to $6.2 billion. During the bank panic in March 2023, loans had spiked to $153 billion. The Discount Window is the Fed’s classic liquidity supply to banks. The Fed currently charges banks 5.5% in interest on these loans – one of its five policy rates – and demands collateral at market value, which is expensive money for banks, and there’s a stigma attached to borrowing at the Discount Window, and so banks don’t use this facility unless they need to, though the Fed has been exhorting them to make more regular use of this facility.
- Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): -$16.2 billion in May, to $108 billion. Cobbled together over a panicky weekend in March 2023 after SVB had failed, the BTFP had a fatal flaw: Its rate was based on a market rate. When Rate-Cut Mania kicked off in November 2023, market rates plunged even as the Fed held its policy rates steady, including the 5.4% it pays banks on reserves. Some smaller banks then used the BTFP for arbitrage profits, borrowing at the BTFP at a lower market rate and then leaving the cash in their reserve account at the Fed to earn 5.4%. This arbitrage caused the BTFP balances to spike to $168 billion. The Fed shut down the arbitrage in January by changing the rate. It also let the BTFP expire on March 11, 2024. Loans that were taken out before that date can still be carried for a year from when they were taken out. By March 11, 2025, the BTFP will be zero.So over the next 10 months, the BTFP, on its way to zero, will remove another $108 billion, or about $11 billion per month on average, from the balance sheet, on top of regular QT.All other bank-panic facilities from March 2023 have already been zeroed out.
Q2 GDP Tracking: 1.6% to 3.1% From BofA: Since last week,1Q GDP tracking is up from 1.3% q/q saar to 1.6% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 1.6%. [June 7th estimate] From Goldman: Wholesale inventories increased somewhat below consensus expectations and the preliminary report. We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate to +2.1% (qoq ar), reflecting weaker details in yesterday’s trade report. Our domestic final sales estimate remains at +2.0% (qoq ar). [June 7th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6. After this morning’s employment situation release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and 7.7 percent. [June 7th estimate]
Spiking Interest Payments on the Ballooning US Government Debt v. Tax Receipts and Inflation: Q1 Update – Wolf Richter - Tax receipts by the federal government in 2024 are shaping up to be pretty good. In 2023, Q1 and Q2 tax receipts were crappy because capital gains taxes had plunged because 2022 had been a terrible year for investors, and when it came time to pay capital gains taxes by April 15, 2023, there weren’t a lot of capital gains to pay taxes on. This year, it’s different: By April 15, capital gains taxes were due on the profits realized in 2023. The year 2023 was one gigantic rally for stocks, bonds, and cryptos. So Q1 2024 tax receipts jumped by $60 billion (+8.4%) from a year ago, to $775 billion (red in the chart below). We know from other data that tax receipts in Q2 have been solid so far, including that the national debt hasn’t budged in months from $34.6 trillion, despite the relentless surge in deficit spending, and that the balance in the government’s checking account, the TGA, spiked to over $950 billion in the days after April 15 as a result of tax payments coming in. Interest payments by the government on its gigantic and ballooning pile of debt surged by $46 billion (+21%) year-over-year in Q1 to $264 billion (blue). In the 20 years between 1995 and 2015, interest payments barely rose despite the debt that kept ballooning because interest rates kept falling as part of the 40-year bond bull market that ended in August 2020. The measure of tax receipts here is what’s available to pay for regular government expenditures, including interest payments. The measure is total receipts minus contributions to Social Security and other social insurance, that are paid specifically by contributors into those programs and are not available to pay for general expenditures. This metric of tax receipts was released on May 30 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as part of its Q1 GDP revision. Interest payments surged because: The debt that the government needs to pay interest on has surged at a mindboggling pace in recent years. The higher interest rates are working themselves gradually into the national debt each time an old maturing Treasury note or bond is replaced with a new Treasury security, and each time the government issues new debt to fund the new deficit. Short-term Treasury bills roll over all the time, and their interest rates have been at 5%-plus for over a year. Now, nearly 22% of the $26.9 trillion in marketable Treasury securities outstanding are T-bills that the government paid an average of 5.36% in interest on in April. So in April, the average interest rate that the Treasury department paid on all its marketable and nonmarketable securities – on the whole $34.6 trillion schmear – was 3.23%. That’s still low, and it will keep rising as the current yields are working themselves into the pile of debt. But it was the highest since early 2010: What matters: Interest payments versus tax receipts. It’s not interest payments in a vacuum that matter, but interest payments in relation to tax receipts. Inflation and growing employment, both, inflate tax receipts. Inflation does so by inflating taxable wages, and growing employment does so by more workers earning taxable wages. Higher interest rates themselves boost tax receipts because they generate taxable income, not only on the $26.4 trillion in marketable Treasury securities, but also in savings accounts and CDs, money market funds, corporate bonds, etc. American households and businesses hold many trillions of dollars of these interest-bearing assets. We’ve looked at the holdings of households: $3.6 trillion in money market funds, $1.1 trillion in CDs of less than $100,000, and $2.4 trillion in CDs over $100,000. In addition, households earn interest from their other bond holdings, from bond funds, etc. They all generate taxable income, when two years ago, during the 0%-era, they generated very little taxable income. So the ratio of interest payments as a percent of tax receipts answers the question: To what extent are interest payments eating up the national income. In Q1, interest payments as a percent of tax receipts dipped to 34.1%. It was 36.1% in Q3, the highest since 1997. In Q4 2023, the ratio had also dipped. In both quarters, tax receipts jumped in dollar terms more than interest payments. In Q2, the ratio may dip further. And then in Q3 and Q4, the thing will turn around again and shoot higher. In the 15 years between 1982 and 1997, the ratio was higher than today; and in the 10 years between 1983 and 1993, it ranged from 45% to 52%.
May jobs report: President Joe Biden faces conundrum - The May jobs report delivered an upside surprise Friday for the labor market and the strength of the U.S. economy as payrolls increased by 272,000 and wage growth ticked upward, reversing a three-month downward trend.But the news is double-edged for the Biden administration as low unemployment and strong jobs gains have not been translating into positive sentiment on the economy for voters amid elevated prices and a crunch on the housing market.Hopes for an upswing in the national economic mood have been hanging in part on the timing of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could please investors and stimulate the economy. But the Friday jobs report leaves that timing in limbo ahead of next week’s meeting of the Fed’s rate setting committee, along with any potential victory laps on the success of the economy’s soft landing. “Heading into next week’s [Fed] meeting, robust job creation and firmer wage growth will likely reinforce policymaker’s backward-looking hawkish bias,” EY economist Lydia Boussour wrote in a commentary Friday. “The risks of a delayed onset [of the easing cycle] in September are growing.” Even within the strong jobs report itself, marked discrepancies between the Labor Department’s household and establishment surveys — the data sources for the monthly jobs report — could indicate that conditions for workers are not as strong as they appear to be. While the establishment survey of employers reported 272,000 new payrolls in May, the household survey showed that the number of employed people in the economy dropped by 408,000. Other factors beside employment, such as the number of people retiring and response rates to the surveys themselves, are at play in such disparities, but they’re still of note to economists paying attention to the national mood. “I think the divergence between the employer survey and the worker survey goes a long way to explaining this ‘vibecession’ – while the economy looks good on paper, real people are still not entirely feeling it,” Michele Evermore, a former Biden Department of Labor official, wrote in an analysis. The weakness in the household survey could be due to the more volatile employment readings among young adults, Economic Policy Institute economist Elise Gould noted, a reading she described as “likely a blip” associated with summer seasonal factor adjustments. Despite the mixed implications of the May jobs report, the Biden administration and fellow Democrats are focusing on the strength of Friday’s top-line numbers and the longer term trends in employment growth that they extend. “On my watch, 15.6 million more Americans have the dignity and respect that comes with a job. Unemployment has been at or below 4 percent for 30 months – the longest stretch in 50 years,” President Biden said in a Friday release. Top House Ways and Means Committee Democrat Richard Neal (Mass.) also cheered the report on, noting its “objectively strong” features. “How many months of consecutive job growth will it take for Republicans to stop rooting against an objectively strong economy? After 40, one would think they’d finally recognize our record-breaking success, built for workers, and powered by workers,” he said in a statement. While objectively strong job gains may be working in Democrats’ favor, it’s the subjectivity of how people are feeling about the economy that could have the most impact for the election. For the 2022 midterm elections, the economy was the top issue for both Democrats and Republicans, with 8 in 10 registered voters ranking economic conditions as a “very important” factor in whom they chose to vote for, according to polling agency Pew Research Center. Economic issues including inflation, health care costs and the deficit are all top concerns ahead of the current election, according to a May poll from the agency. Notably, unemployment is the lowest ranking issue listed in that poll, with near agreement on its level of importance between Democrats and Republicans. While voters’ opinions of Biden’s handling of the economy have also proved lackluster in recent months, public opinion on the economy in general has improved since its low point in 2022 when less than 10 percent of Republicans and less than 30 percent of Democrats thought conditions were either “excellent” or “good.” Persistent concerns about inflation have led the Biden administration to launch a multifaceted campaign against price-gouging in the private sector, which played a significant role in the post-pandemic inflation as companies capitalized on a glut fiscal and monetary stimulus to widen margins to record levels.
Biden’s cease-fire bid further divides Israeli public opinion -President Biden is counting on the Israeli public to support his push for a cease-fire deal with Hamas that includes the release of remaining hostages held by the group, even as the president’s criticism of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip has stirred controversy. While Biden’s initial support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack won him support across the country’s political spectrum, his growing pressure on Israel over its military operations in southern Gaza has triggered blowback in large circles of Israeli society. “More and more Israelis are taking a less positive, less empathetic attitude towards the United States, and that’s going to undermine the relationship,” said Yoav Fromer, head of the Center for the Study of the United States at Tel Aviv University.That trend is largely playing out among allies and supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and has been magnified by Biden’s pressure campaign on Israel to accept a cease-fire deal. In response to the proposal, far-right and extremist members of his coalition are threatening to disband the government by resigning if Netanyahu accepts a deal. “This is an existential threat to U.S.-Israeli relations, and I say that as a historian of U.S. relations … we’ve always had low points,” said Fromer. U.S. support for Israel has become a controversial topic among Israelis, who recognize America as their most important ally but are growing frustrated with Biden’s increasing criticism against the military operation in Gaza. “Almost everyone supports the war, the question is until when, and what kind of activities are considered necessary and legitimate,” said Tamar Hermann, director of the Israel Democracy Institute’s (IDI) Viterbi Center for Public Opinion.“We don’t have an anti-war movement in Israel.”But there is plenty of separation in how the public views Netanyahu’s handling of the war, and Biden’s efforts to pressure him. “I would say we don’t have any Israeli public opinion — we have Israeli public opinions,” Hermann said.“Therefore the attitudes towards the United States are very different between the left, the center and right.”The right-wing constituency poses the biggest hurdle for Biden’s diplomacy. Israelis who identify as politically right wing represent about 55 to 60 percent of the country, Hermann said. “The [U.S.-built] pier for example, it was perceived as a knife in the back of Israel, certainly on the right, who oppose delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas releases the hostages,” Hermann said of the faulty, American-built floating pier for delivering humanitarian assistance into Gaza.
Biden: People Have 'Every Reason' To Believe Netanyahu Is Prolonging Gaza War To Stay in Power - President Biden has said that people have “every reason” to believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging the Israeli onslaught in Gaza for his own political survival.The president made the comments in an interview with Time Magazine, where he was asked, “Some in Israel have suggested that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political self-preservation. Do you believe that?”Biden replied, “I’m not going to comment on that. There is every reason for people to draw that conclusion.”Polling has shown the majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign once the war on Gaza is over, so any pause in Israeli military operations would increase the domestic pressure on him.Biden’s comments reflect a February report from NBC News that said the president privately expressed that “Netanyahu wants the war to drag on so he can remain in power.”Despite holding that view of the Israeli leader, Biden has continued to provide military and diplomatic support for Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Other reports have said US officials believe Netanyahumight view a wider regional war as key to his political survival, but the US still backed Israel after it bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus.Biden unveiled a ceasefire proposal on Friday that he said would lead to an end to Israeli military operations in Gaza, but Netanyahu quickly rebuked him by saying a permanent ceasefire was a “non-starter.” Israeli officials believe Netanyahu’s comments might sabotage the chances of reaching a deal with Hamas.
As Israel bombs ambulances and levels refugee camp, Netanyahu receives bipartisan invitation to address US Congress - The death toll from the Israeli offensive on Rafah, the southernmost city of Gaza, and attacks throughout the Strip continues to grow, with reports in recent days of widespread deaths and injuries to children, aid workers and other civilians. Signaling their ongoing support for the murderous onslaught, the leaderships of the Democratic and Republican parties issued an effusive open letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, hailing him as a leader of a global fight against “terrorism” and inviting him to address the US Congress. That invitation was made a day after the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) issued a statement detailing the deliberate killing of two of its paramedics in the Tel Sultan area west of Rafah. According to the PRCS, on May 29, a convoy of three ambulances was bombed by Israeli war planes. When one of the ambulances caught fire as a result and the paramedics attempted to extinguish the blaze, Israeli soldiers “opened heavy fire towards the teams, forcing them to withdraw from the site before they could retrieve the paramedics’ bodies, which were found in pieces this morning.” The PRCS noted that with these latest killings, it has now lost 19 paramedics killed by Israel. An estimated 270 aid workers have been murdered throughout the genocide. The PRCS said that it “holds the international community fully responsible for the continued targeting by the Israeli occupation of the PRCS teams, facilities, and ambulances, clearly marked with the Red Crescent emblem, protected under international humanitarian law.” The two paramedics were among at least 113 Palestinians killed between the afternoons of May 29 and 31, according to Gaza’s health ministry, along with 637 injured. They join the more than 36,000 recorded Palestinian deaths over the past seven months, but with reporting having broken down, estimates place the true death toll at tens of thousands more. The United Nations and aid agencies are warning that in addition to the direct killings, the offensive against Rafah is creating a massive humanitarian crisis. The assault has displaced an estimated 1 million of Gaza’s 2.1 million people; deliveries of food and other essentials have been restricted, and humanitarian groups have been forced to withdraw. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization reported that just three of its aid trucks had been able to enter Gaza since the assault on Rafah began, with 60 more stuck at the Egyptian border. That prompted the World Food Programme to warn that “Constrained access to southern parts of Gaza risks causing the same catastrophic levels of hunger witnessed in the north,” where there have been shocking scenes of death from starvation as hundreds of thousands have been forced to subsist on the equivalent of less than a small can of beans a day. On Thursday, Médecins Sans Frontières closed its primary care centre in Al Mawasi, the desertous piece of land at the southwestmost point of Gaza, to which Israel is herding hundreds of thousands of people from Rafah. The doctors’ group reported that the centre had treated more than 33,000 people since February and stated that its forced closure marked “another step in Israel’s systematic dismantling of Gaza’s health system.”
Netanyahu Address to Congress Set for July 24th -On Thursday, congressional leaders confirmed the Israeli prime minister will address a joint session of Congress on July 24. Netanyahu’s speech to the US legislature comes as Israeli forces have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians with American weapons.Last week, bipartisan lawmakers in both chambers – including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Senate leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) – extended an invitation to Netanyahu to speak in the Capitol.“The existential challenges we face, including the growing partnership between Iran, Russia, and China, threaten the security, peace, and prosperity of our countries and of free people around the world,” they said in a letter to Netanyahu. “To build on our enduring relationship and to highlight America’s solidarity with Israel, we invite you to share the Israeli government’s vision for defending democracy, combating terror, and establishing a just and lasting peace in the region.”While the date for the speech is now set, Sen. Bernie Sanders said he will not attend in protest of Israel’s actions in Gaza. “Benjamin Netanyahu is creating the worst humanitarian disaster in modern history. Starvation. Destruction. Death,” the senator wrote on X. “We should not honor him with an invitation to address the United States Congress.”
US-Provided Bombs Used in Israeli Strikes on UN School in Central Gaza - Israel used US-provided bombs in strikes on a UN-run school in central Gaza that was sheltering thousands of displaced Palestinians, according toan analysis from CNN.The school in the Nuseirat camp was targeted early Thursday morning, and at least 40 Palestinians were killed, including 14 children and nine women, according to Palestinian officials and hospital workers.According to The New Arab, some of the children who were killed arrived at the al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital “in pieces.”Israel took credit for the attack and claimed that it targeted Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters but offered no evidence for the assertion. Palestinians sheltering at the school strongly rejected the Israeli claims.“They’re saying they were targeting fighters. What fighters? We don’t have any weapons, we came here for safety with nothing but our tents and the clothes on our backs,” Ansam Issa, a Palestinian who lost her father and two brothers in the strikes, told Middle East Eye.Ansam said her family sought shelter at the school just a day earlier after a heavy Israeli bombing targeted the Bureij refugee camp where they live. Israel has significantly escalated military operations in central Gaza this week.According to CNN’s analysis, Israel used at least two US-made GBU-39 small-diameter bombs to hit the school. Debris of the US-made bombs was spotted in a video recorded by a journalist working for CNN at the scene.
Israel massacres at least 40 people in strike on school with US precision-guided missiles -- The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched a savage assault on a school run by the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza early Thursday, killing at least 40 people, among them, nine children and three women. An investigation by Al Jazeera confirmed that the missiles fired on the camp were equipped with US-supplied “precision” guidance systems. A piece of debris from one of the weapons used in the attack was traced to the American firm Honeywell. At least three missiles were fired in the attack, which also injured 73 people. Using its standard justification for reducing hospitals, schools, universities and other critical infrastructure to rubble, the IDF asserted that Hamas fighters were using the school, home to some 6,000 displaced civilians, as a base.Asked about the attack at the State Department’s daily briefing, spokesman Matthew Miller declared: If it is true that you have this site where Hamas is hiding inside a school, other militants are hiding inside a school, those individuals are legitimate targets, but at the same time, they’re embedded near civilians, Israel has a right to try and target those civilians.The indiscriminate targeting of civilians in military operations is a war crime that recalls the darkest days of World War II, when Hitler’s Nazi regime waged a war of extermination against the Soviet Union that claimed the lives of 27 million people. The carpet bombing of major cities on both sides—Dresden, Hamburg, London, Tokyo—and the dropping of two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the barbarism of imperialism. Eight decades on, Miller’s remarks confirm how accurately we appraised the official D-Day commemorations, writing Thursday:To be perfectly blunt, the policies and objectives of NATO are eerily similar to those of the Nazi regime against which the Allies fought in World War II. Hitler, were he resurrected for the occasion, would feel perfectly at home in the company of US President Biden, British Prime Minister Sunak, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz.
Gaza Pier Repairs Will Cost US Military at Least $22 Million - The repairs to the US-built pier that was damaged off the coast of Gaza will cost at least $22 million, The Washington Post reported on Thursday, citing two Pentagon officials.The US military is currently working to repair the pier in the Israeli port of Ashdod and the total cost could rise as high as $28 million. The pier broke apart due to heavy seas as it was not capable of handling waves bigger than one or two feet.While the repairs have a huge price tag, the Pentagon has also said the estimate of the overall cost of the project has lowered from about $320 million to $230 million. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said at least some of the repair costs were factored into the new estimate.According to the Post, the new estimate is due to “lower-than-expected expenses for contracted vehicles and drivers, and Britain’s contribution of a military vessel to house the US troops involved in the operation.” Despite the disastrous start, the Pentagon is looking to reconnect the pier to Gaza’s shore later this week. For the brief time it was operating, barely any aid trucks entered Gaza through the pier, and Israel’s starvation blockade on Gaza has been tightened since Israel captured the Rafah border crossing on May 7.
Republicans advance sanctions on International Criminal Court -- House Republicans on Monday advanced legislation designed to punish the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its top prosecutor recommended war crimes charges against Israeli leaders amid their fight with Hamas. The House Rules Committee voted 9-3, along strict partisan lines, to send to the floor legislation slapping sanctions on ICC officials. The full House is poised to pass the bill later this week and send it to the Senate, where it’s expected to be ignored by the Democratic leaders who control the upper chamber. The effort was initially designed to be bipartisan, as congressional leaders in both parties have sought to demonstrate Washington’s support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attacks. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) had been in talks with Democratic counterparts in both chambers and the White House about how to penalize the court, underscoring that he wanted legislation that had a strong chance of becoming law to serve as a deterrent while ICC judges weigh whether to grant the warrants. The White House, however, threw a wrench in those plans last week: press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced that the administration, while in favor of some punitive response to the ICC’s proposed charges, is not in favor of sanctioning the global court — an announcement that quickly deflated McCaul’s effort to enact a bipartisan penalty.“We fundamentally reject the ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders,” Jean-Pierre said. “Sanctions on the ICC, however, we do not believe is an effective or an appropriate path forward.”The administration doubled-down on that stance in a statement of administrative policy Monday afternoon, writing that it “strongly opposes” the legislation. It stopped short, however, of explicitly threatening to veto the measure if it reaches President Biden’s desk.. “There are more effective ways to defend Israel, preserve U.S. positions on the ICC, and promote international justice and accountability, and the Administration stands ready to work with the Congress on those options,” the statement reads. It’s unclear, however, what other punitive options the White House has in mind, since the United States has never ratified the ICC’s charter, doesn’t believe Americans are subject to its jurisdiction and provides no funding for its operations. House GOP leaders aren’t waiting around for the administration to come up with alternatives, pushing ahead instead with a partisan sanctions bill that had been introduced last month by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) following reports that the ICC was considering a move to bring charges against Israeli leaders for their conduct in the Hamas war. Roy’s bill — which has more than 60 GOP co-sponsors — would impose sanctions on ICC officials who “engaged in any effort to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute any protected person of the United States and its allies.” Those sanctions include blocking U.S. property transactions, deeming individuals inadmissible to the U.S. and revoking any visas they may have. The measure gives the president the unilateral authority to end the sanctions if the ICC stops engaging in efforts to investigate or arrest U.S. individuals or its allies, or if the court has permanently ended any investigation into protected individuals. The legislation is expected to clear the House easily, with support from virtually all Republicans as well as a number of staunch pro-Israel defenders on the Democratic side. But Biden’s rejection of the sanctions concept secured the opposition of Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill, and most Democrats are expected to vote against the measure when it hits the floor later in the week. “This is a bad bill,” Rep. Jim McGovern (Mass.), the top Democrat on the Rules Committee, said Monday. “The International Criminal Court is an important institution, and those who care about human rights would certainly agree with that assessment. And I think that it is not in America’s moral or strategic interest to attack the court for attempting to do its job.” “This bill makes a mockery of the rules-based international order that America helped build,” he added.
When Opposing A Genocide Means You're A Nazi by Caitlin Johnstone - When opposing a genocide means you’re a Nazi. When opposing nuclear brinkmanship means you love Vladimir Putin. When opposing the looming global conflict with China means you’re a sinister propagandist for “the CCP”. When opposing the latest imperial escalations against the latest Official Bad Guy always means you’re an appeaser of the Bad Guy and would have opposed fighting Hitler. When your skepticism toward government and media institutions who have an extensive record of lying and propagandizing means you’re a crazy conspiracy theorist. When wanting to live in a society where everyone has enough means you’re an evil authoritarian with a despised ideology. When believing it’s possible to have systems where humans aren’t killing the biosphere and waging insane wars while brandishing armageddon weapons at each other means you’re a silly little child who doesn’t understand how the real world works. When these things are happening in your society, it means your society has gone stark raving insane. It means you are surrounded by lunatics, and ruled by madmen. When so many mainstream consensus positions fail to get the most basic and obvious moral positions right, and not only fail to get them right but get them completely ass backwards, you are living in a civilization that has gone bat shit crazy. Our civilization is crazy because the systems which govern it are crazy, and they have to drive all of us crazy to get us to consent to those systems. The empire needs us to consent to nonstop warfare and militarism, so it propagandizes us into thinking that these things are normal and anyone who questions them is evil and suspicious. The empire needs us to consent to the nonstop exploitation, injustice, ecocide and extraction of its brand of global capitalism, so it propagandizes us into believing these crazy things are normal, and that if you find it difficult to survive under such a system then there must be something wrong with you personally. The empire needs us to consent to continually expanding surveillance, police militarization, internet censorship and mass-scale psychological manipulation, so it propagandizes us into thinking that anyone who opposes these things is a weird paranoid freak. Every day our minds are being kicked around by the powerful in a whole host of ways to maintain a dystopia that is a 180-degree reversal of what a healthy civilization should look like, so it’s no wonder that we see so many mental health problems in our society. It’s no wonder we see so many mass shootings in the hub of the empire. It’s no wonder people throw so much of their lives into the vapid escapism and entertainment of mainstream culture instead of engaging politically with this mess. They need you to be crazy, so they drive you crazy. If they can’t make you crazy, they try to convince you that you’re crazy. If they can’t convince you that you’re crazy, they try to convince everyone else that you’re crazy. Whatever it takes to keep the crazy wheels of their crazy machine rolling forward into dystopia and extinction. How much respect should you have for such a system? How much loyalty should you have to such an empire? How seriously should you take the mainstream worldviews which regard all this madness as sanity, and regard your sanity as madness? Personally, I find it hard to play along. Terence McKenna said “The cost of sanity in this society is a certain level of alienation.” I think of this quote often. But what we have now that we didn’t have in McKenna’s day is a widespread internet that allows us to find each other and connect with each other in a way that is without precedent. Sometimes I feel like that’s my main role here: just to be a sane voice calling out through the internet to the others so that we can all be less alone in this lunatic civilization. To be a friend who leans in and whispers, “You’re not crazy. I see it too.” Because often that’s all people need. In the shadow of an empire that is dedicated making you crazy and making you think you’re crazy, often all you need is someone to give you the confidence to stand by your convictions and call bullshit what it is. If enough of us can find each other and start feeling sufficiently assured of our own sanity to take action, that just might be all it takes to start turning this thing around.. US moves against oil tankers unacceptable, says Russia -- US plans to further curb operations of Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers are unacceptable, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Thursday. The United States and its allies are weighing additional sanctions and could act further to increase Russia's cost of using a shadow fleet of tankers to evade a Group of Seven countries' cap on the Russian oil price. "We decisively condemn introduction of price caps, restrictions on oil sales, attempts to set up buyers' cartels and demands to lower the prices", Zakharova said during a weekly briefing. The fleet of ageing tankers has helped Moscow transport Russian cargoes as well as oil from Iran and Venezuela, countries also contending with Western sanctions. The G7 group of industrialised nations approved a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil after Washington lobbied to curb the Kremlin's revenue amid the conflict with Ukraine while keeping Russian oil flowing to avoid an energy price spike.
In D-Day Speech, Biden Celebrates Deaths of Russian Soldiers in Ukraine - President Biden celebrated the deaths of Russian soldiers in Ukraine during a speech in Normandy, France, commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day.“They’ve suffered tremendous losses, Russia. The numbers are staggering — 350,000 Russian troops dead or wounded. Nearly 1 million people have left Russia because they can no longer see a future in Russia,” Biden said.The real number of dead or wounded troops in the Ukraine war is unclear since neither side shares information about casualties. But it’s likely Ukraine has suffered more casualties since the conflict is largely an artillery war, and Ukrainian forces have been significantly outgunned.Russian officials were not invited to the D-Day commemoration despite the Soviet Union being an ally of the US and France during World War II and suffering tens of millions of deaths. Biden used the event to rally support for NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine and slammed Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “tyrant.”“We know the dark forces that these heroes fought against 80 years ago. They never fade,” Biden said. “Here, in Europe, we see one stark example. Ukraine has been invaded by a tyrant bent on domination.”Biden also declared that NATO was the “greatest military alliance in the history of the world” and framed the proxy war in Ukraine as a battle for “democracy” despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky canceling elections and remaining in power after his term ended.“Let us be the generation that when history is written about our time — in 10, 20, 30, 50, 80 years from now — it will be said: When the moment came, we met the moment. We stood strong. Our alliances were made stronger. And we saved democracy in our time as well,” Biden said.Biden’s speech came about a week after he gave Ukraine the green light to use US-provided missiles to strike Russian territory, a significant escalation that risks sparking World War III. Putin has warned of “serious consequences” for NATO countries that support strikes on Russia.
White House Announces $225 Million Weapons Package for Ukraine - The Joe Biden administration announced a $225 million weapons transfer to Ukraine on Friday. The package includes ammunition for HIMARS missile launchers that Biden recently gave Kiev permission to use for attacks inside Russia.According to a Department of Defense press release, the US will transfer the weapons directly from US stockpiles to Ukraine. Biden authorized the transfer through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which Congress funded in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill passed earlier this year.The shipment includes:
- Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
- Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
- Ammunition for HIMARS
- 155mm Howitzers
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
- 81mm mortar systems
- M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
- Trailers to transport heavy equipment
- Coastal and riverine patrol boats
- TOW missiles
- Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
- Small arms ammunition and grenades
- Demolitions munitions
- Night vision devices
In a post on X, Secretary of State Antony Blinken touted that the package would strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses. “The United States is announcing a new military aid package to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and support its brave forces,” he wrote. However, the list of weapons systems notably lacks any Patriot or NASAMS interceptors and only includes the older MIM-23 HAWK and shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.
Republican Senator Confirms Ukrainian Strike on Russia With US Weapons - Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, confirmed to The Associated Press on Wednesday that Ukraine has used US-provided weapons to carry out strikes on Russian territory, which risks a major response from Russia.The report also cited an unnamed Western official who said Ukraine used US weapons on Russian territory. The report didn’t specify what type of weapons system was used, but it came after a Ukrainian lawmaker claimedUS-provided HIMARS rocket systems destroyed Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles inside Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.A Ukrainian official also told The Wall Street Journal that HIMARS were usedto hit a Russian air defense system in Belgorod. The HIMARS systems require US intelligence for targeting, meaning any HIMARS strike on Russian territory would have been directly supported by the US.There’s been no official confirmation from Russia about the strikes, but Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday issued a fresh warning to the US and other NATO countries about the use of their weapons on Russian territory.“If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a warzone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those (Western) countries,” Putin said, according to AFP. “That is, the response can be asymmetric. We will think about it.”
White House signals Russia's advance on Ukraine's Kharkiv region is 'all but over' - The White House said Friday that Russia’s offensive in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region has stalled and is unlikely to advance any further.John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, said the arrival of U.S. weapons has helped change the trajectory of the battle around Kharkiv, which Russian forces mounted a major attack on around the middle of May.“They have been able to thwart Russian advances, particularly around Kharkiv,” Kirby said. “The Russians really have kind of stalled out up there [and] … their advance on Kharkiv is all but over because they ran into the first line of defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and basically stopped, if not pulled back, some units.”He added that Ukraine was still under pressure, and they were not taking anything for granted, but it “appears that they’ve stalled out,” noting that this assessment was shared between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Biden when the two met Friday in France to mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day.In that meeting, Biden apologized for the months-long delay of new U.S. military aid to Ukraine, which Washington and Kyiv have both said led to Russian advances across the battlefield, including in Kharkiv and in the eastern Donetsk region.In his Thursday speech marking D-Day, Biden argued that it was vital to once again stand up for democracy and freedom as the Allies did in World War II as he compared the fight against Nazi Germany to Russia’s ongoing assault against Ukraine.Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv came as Ukraine was just beginning to receive new U.S. military aid, with Moscow looking to exploit the delay of more weapons and defenses and take more ground before the assistance arrived in full force.The renewed push sparked fears that Ukraine would be stretched thin as it also defends against Russian forces pushing forward in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.Russia made some gains in Kharkiv when the offensive was launched, capturing towns and progressing toward the city of Kharkiv, but forces are still locked into fighting north of the city, including major battles around the town of Vovchansk
NATO Developing 'Land Corridors' To Rush US Troops to Frontlines in Event of War With Russia - NATO is developing multiple “land corridors” to rush US troops and armored vehicles to the frontlines of a potential future ground war with Russia in Eastern Europe, The Telegraph reported on Tuesday.Current NATO plans involve US troops landing in ports in the Netherlands and then transported through Germany to Poland, but the alliance is looking to expand the potential routes for US troops to reach the borders of Russia and Ukraine.Officials told The Telegraph that they want US troops to be able to travel through five different corridors:
- Landing in the Netherlands and traveling through Germany to reach Poland
- Landing in Italy to travel through Slovenia and Slovakia to reach Hungary
- Landing in Greece to travel through Bulgaria to reach Romania
- Landing in Turkey to travel through Bulgaria to reach Romania
- Landing in Norway to travel through Sweden to reach Finland
The Telegraph report said that under the NATO plan, US troops and vehicles traveling through these countries would not be restricted by local laws, so they could travel quickly. The report said France has complained about its tanks being stuck at foreign borders while trying to deploy to Romania due to bureaucratic processes.Starting in 2023, NATO has been working on war plans for a potential future conflict with Russia for the first time since the Cold War. The alliance is planning for a possible ground war with Russia despite the obvious risk of any direct NATO-Russia clash quickly escalating into a nuclear exchange.
Russian warships head to Cuba for military exercises -- Russia is sending a naval detachment to Cuba next week for military exercises that will likely exacerbate tensions with the U.S. amid the war in Ukraine.Cuba’s military said in a Friday press release that the Russian naval vessels would visit the port of Havana from Wednesday to June 17.The visiting Russian detachment includes a frigate, a nuclear-powered submarine, an oil tanker and a tugboat, according to Cuba.“This visit corresponds to the historical friendly relations between Cuba and the Russian Federation,” Cuban officials said in the release, adding that the visit adheres to international regulations. “None of the ships carry nuclear weapons, so their stopover in our country does not represent a threat to the region.”The Russian naval group will also visit Venezuela and participate in military exercises, according to U.S. officials who spoke to ABC News.The deployment to the Caribbean is part of the Kremlin’s response to chilled tensions with the U.S. over the war in Ukraine, according to those officials, but also a demonstration of naval power after Ukrainian forces have repeatedly sunk Russian ships in the Black Sea and forced them out of the western part of those waters.The upcoming naval deployment comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin told international journalists earlier this week he was considering providing weapons to nations hostile to the U.S. and Western allies, after Washington gave Ukraine permission to strike into Russia with American-made weapons to defend the northeastern Kharkiv region.
RFK Jr. hits Biden for invoking Ukraine war in D-Day remarks --Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went after President Biden Friday, after he invoked the Russia-Ukraine war in his D-Day anniversary remarks. In his speech Friday, Biden asked several hypothetical questions related to how the soldiers who fought in D-Day would react to the current situation in Eastern Europe. “Does anyone doubt that they would want America to stand up against [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s aggression here in Europe today? Does anyone believe these rangers would want America to go it alone today?” he asked. “Does anyone doubt they wouldn’t move heaven and earth to vanquish hateful ideologies of today?” Biden also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in France, where he apologized for a delay in funding for the war-torn country. Kennedy, who has been a vocal critic of the U.S. providing additional aid to Ukraine, went after the commander-in-chief, saying the current conflict in Ukraine is not the same as World War II. In a post on social media, the independent candidate argued that he is the only 2024 contender who makes “peace” a priority. “As Jeffrey Sachs pointed out in his recent interview with Tucker, the United States and NATO have engaged in ‘30 years of provocation, where we could not take peace for an answer,’ Kennedy wrote on social media platform X. “The situation in Ukraine today is not the same as World War II.” “A President of the United States cannot blithely engage in a historical saber-rattling with a nuclear power. It endangers the world, damages our moral and intellectual standing, and dishonors the sacrifice of our soldiers,” he added. “Peace goes arm in arm with the truth. I am the only candidate in this race who makes that a priority.”
US moves against oil tankers unacceptable, says Russia -- US plans to further curb operations of Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers are unacceptable, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Thursday. The United States and its allies are weighing additional sanctions and could act further to increase Russia's cost of using a shadow fleet of tankers to evade a Group of Seven countries' cap on the Russian oil price. "We decisively condemn introduction of price caps, restrictions on oil sales, attempts to set up buyers' cartels and demands to lower the prices", Zakharova said during a weekly briefing. The fleet of ageing tankers has helped Moscow transport Russian cargoes as well as oil from Iran and Venezuela, countries also contending with Western sanctions. The G7 group of industrialised nations approved a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil after Washington lobbied to curb the Kremlin's revenue amid the conflict with Ukraine while keeping Russian oil flowing to avoid an energy price spike.
The Reckless Brinkmanship With Russia Just Keeps On Escalating - by Caitlin Johnstone-- It’s damn near impossible to keep up with all the warmongering of the western empire these days.In response to the frightening steps that NATO has been taking to allow western-supplied weapons to be used by Ukraine to strike Russian territory, Vladimir Putin warned last week that these escalations can lead to “serious consequences”. “This constant escalation can lead to serious consequences,” Putin said. “If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the US behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons? Hard to say. Do they want global conflict?” We can get a more concrete idea of what Putin was talking about from the blatant threat Moscow formally made to the UK last month, saying that Ukraine using any British weapons to attack Russian territory could result in direct Russian attacks on British military targets in Ukraine “and beyond”, which would place Russia in a profoundly dangerous state of hot warfare with NATO forces. On Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Putin’s warnings, saying, “This is nothing new. It has … been the case for a long time that every time NATO allies are providing support to Ukraine, President Putin is trying to threaten us to not do that.”This cavalier attitude toward nuclear brinkmanship that empire managers have been demonstrating lately was addressed on Monday by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who said the US is close to making a “fatal” miscalculation. “I would like to caution American officials against miscalculations which may have fatal consequences. For some unknown reason, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive,” Ryabkov reportedly said.“I am urging these officials who seemingly are not bothered by anything, to take some time away from playing computer games, which is apparently what they are doing, given their light-hearted approach to serious issues, and take a closer look at what Putin said,” Ryabkov added.American officials appear to be doing the exact opposite of what the deputy foreign minister recommends, with White House spokesman John Kirby telling the press on Monday that the Biden administration is open to discussions about expanding the use of US-made weapons further into Russian territory.Asked about President Zelensky’s complaint that US permissions to conduct limited strikes on Russian territory weren’t enough and comments from Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting a greater range of Russian territory may soon be authorized, Kirby said it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Zelensky wants more, and that the US will keep talking to Ukraine about the possibility of US-backed strikes deeper into the Russian mainland. “And so we’ll have those talks, we’ll have those conversations with the Ukrainians,” Kirby said. “Absolutely, we will. And whether it leads to any additional policy changes, I can’t say at this point, but we’re not going to turn our back on what Ukraine needs. And we’re going to continue to try to, again, evolve our support to them as the battlefield evolves as well.” I wrote just the other day that Biden’s authorization for limited strikes on Russian territory with US weapons would immediately be followed by a push for even more escalations with strikes deeper into Russia, and here we are. Every time the warmongers get one escalation, they immediately start pushing for another. There is a limit to how many escalations Russia will tolerate before taking drastic action against NATO to re-establish deterrence credibility, and nobody really knows exactly where that limit is. They seem bound and determined to find it however, and when they do we may already be on an irreversible free fall toward nuclear armageddon.
Scott Ritter Removed from Plane to Russia and Had Passport Seized with No Explanation - by Yves Smith - Scott Ritter was set to travel to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a major event, and make a presentation there. I am not clear on the details, but he also mentioned regularly on his various interviews that he was planning to visit many Russian cities and meet with Russians to promote better understanding between Russia and the US, depicting himself as trying to build bridges. He would often make jibes at the failure of the State Department to operate this way.We will hear more details from Ritter soon, but he was removed from the plane taking him on the first leg of his flight to St. Petersburg (a high-handed, embarrassment-maximizing move; he could just have easily been stopped at the boarding gate) and had his passport seized. The only explanation he got from the Customs and Border Police officials was that the move was on the orders of the Department of State.There is a lot of speculation on Twitter, and by over-eager readers, that Judge Napolitano had his trip to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum also cancelled by US officials, and in a more extreme version of the tale, was traveling with Ritter and removed from the plane with him. Napolitano has twice denied it on his first programs on Monday. From the top of his interview with Alastair Crooke:My trip was cancelled due to events in Russia that are not national or major diplomatic events but events that involve this tripAnd from the start of his talk with Larry Johnson, who he was set to see for dinner in St. Petersburg:….the cancellation was beyond my control and had nothing to do with me personally.From Napolitano’s Twitter account: Napolitano also stated he found out about the change in his drill before he left for the airport and was glad for that. He sounded quite chipper in his talk with Johnson. So if there was any official action against Napolitano to prevent his travel, he vitiated any opportunity to lodge a protest by twice depicting the impediment as having nothing to do with him personally. I have to think Napolitano is too canny to have undercut any due process rights, if he wanted to avail himself of them, before speaking to counsel. Ritter is a controversial figure who likes to paint in bright colors and has been pilloried for some bad calls on the conflict in Ukraine, notably predicting an early Russian victory (as in fairness did some Western officials too). Nevertheless, I have found much of his commentary to be valuable, particularly details of his past experiences, UN and NATO niceties, and military operations.It is hard to fathom any legal justification for this move, not that the Biden Administration is big on such niceties. It is remarkably hard to find, on a quick search, the statutory grounds for passport revocation or seizure; the actual texts are recursive and the references to them oracular.1Larry Johnson quickly went to bat for Ritter, presenting what he says are the three grounds for passport revocation: being involved in criminal activity, unpaid taxes, or based on a request from law enforcement.As we show in the footnote below, the party having his passport revoked is supposed to receive a written notice, which did not happen with Ritter.The only way State might pretty this up is tax thuggery, as in having the IRS produce a notice of tax delinquency that Ritter did not receive. Note that the IRS took the mission to harass Matt Taibbi:
White House says Biden would veto military construction-VA bill -- The White House signaled Monday that it is opposed to a bill passed by the House Appropriations Committee that funds military construction and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), raising concerns about “partisan” amendments that target LGBTQ Americans and abortion access. The White House Office of Management and Budget said in a statement that the bill has “numerous, partisan policy provisions with devastating consequences” for reproductive rights, the LGBTQ community, marriage equality and climate change. “House Republicans are again wasting time with partisan bills that would result in deep cuts to law enforcement, education, housing, health care, consumer safety, energy programs that lower utility bills and combat climate change, and essential nutrition services,” White House officials said. The GOP-led House Appropriations Committee passed the more than $147 billion legislation May 23 to fund the VA and military construction along party lines in a 34-25 vote. Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) praised the bill’s passage as “a testament to our dedication to caring for those who selflessly served our nation, supporting our military families, and strengthening America’s defense.” The legislation creates yet another clash over culture wars in Defense and government funding bills between Democrats and Republicans, which became a major point of tension last year before many of the partisan amendments were stripped after conference. Some committees appear to be trying to avoid the same battles as last year. The House Armed Services Committee cleared the annual Defense bill in May without the provision of any serious partisan culture war amendments. The VA and military construction legislation includes a prohibition on the closure or realignment of Guantanamo Bay, the U.S. naval base in Cuba, which still holds 30 prisoners. President Biden has moved toward closing the facility and has returned home some detainees. The White House said the bill would affect Biden’s plans to continue weighing how to free those prisoners. The White House is also opposed to another provision that would restrict the VA from carrying out a Biden administration rule that allows veterans to have greater access to abortion counseling and abortions in certain circumstances.
Greene floats forcing vote on impeaching Biden over the border - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Monday said she may move to force a vote on impeaching President Biden over the situation at the southern border this week, a threat that comes as the president prepares to roll out a highly anticipated executive order that would crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border.Greene told reporters Monday evening that she was going to move to force a vote on her articles of impeachment that night, but decided to hold off to first talk to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). She warned, however, that she may trigger the resolution later this week.“Right here, privileged resolution of impeachment,” Greene told reporters, dangling the articles. “I can force a vote this week. But you know what, I was gonna do it tonight but I decided I’m gonna go talk to our Republican elected Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, that I actually voted for that claims he supports Trump, and ask him if he’s gonna do something about it.”Pressed on what would happen if Johnson declined to put the articles of impeachment on the floor for a vote, Greene said she would force a vote. “I’ll just drop them on the floor and then we can vote and see where everybody stands,” she told reporters. “I’m mad. I didn’t come up here to hang out with everybody and go ‘oh, hey, guys.’ I mean, my people at home are mad. Everybody across this country are furious. We don’t want a banana republic — we want an actual legitimate government. We want a real justice system. We don’t have one right now.” Greene could call her impeachment resolution as early as Tuesday, after which leadership would have two legislative days to stage a vote on the measure. It is likely, however, that the chamber would vote on a motion to table the resolution or refer it to committee — which was the case last June, when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) forced a vote on her resolution impeaching Biden over the border.The threat by Greene came the day before Biden is expected to sign an executive order that would shut down asylum requests at the border if the average number of daily encounters reaches 2,500 at ports of entry. It’s a plan that closely mirrors a policy first floated in legislation from a bipartisan group of senators that was negotiated with the White House. Conservatives quickly sank the bill.It also follows accusations from some Republicans that Biden should use his executive authority to enact tougher policies at the border, though it’s unclear whether the move is lawful and immigration rights groups have pledged to sue.The move comes as the border continues to dominate conversations on the campaign trail, with voters saying it is one of their top issues in the lead-up to the November elections.Republicans have slammed Biden’s reported plans to issue an executive order, arguing that he is acting for political reasons. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on “Fox News Sunday” called the planned move “too little too late.”Greene’s resolution reads much like an earlier resolution crafted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas — another effort the GOP struggled to pass, though it eventually succeeded.The legislation accuses Biden of violating his oath of office and failing to follow immigration laws.It’s an argument that comes with many of the same pitfalls as the Mayorkas impeachment articles. Like with Mayorkas, the resolution accuses Biden of failing to maintain operational control of the border. But the law cited in the bill, the Secure Fence Act, set a standard of perfection that no president or Homeland Security secretary has met – determining compliance to be met only when no person or contraband illegally crosses the border.Greene’s resolution also takes issue with Biden’s approach to immigration in general, saying he’s violated the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) both with his policies and by failing to detain all migrants who cross the border. But no president has ever detained all migrants that cross the border as the U.S. simply does not have the capacity to do so. And immigration law experts previously countered claims that Biden administration policies violated the INA, determining that the administration’s policies were within the bounds of the law.
Biden prepares order that would shut down asylum requests at US-Mexico border (AP) — The White House is telling lawmakers that President Joe Biden is preparing to sign off on an executive order that would shut down asylum requests at the U.S.-Mexico border once the average number of daily encounters hits 2,500 between ports of entry, with the border reopening only once that number declines to 1,500, according to several people familiar with the discussions.The impact of the 2,500 figure means that the executive order could go into immediate effect because daily figures are higher than that now.The Democratic president is expected to unveil the actions — his most aggressive unilateral move yet to control the numbers at the border — at the White House on Tuesday at an event to whichborder mayors have been invited.Five people familiar with the discussions on Monday confirmed the 2,500 figure, while two of the people confirmed the 1,500 number. The figures are daily averages over the course of a week. All the people insisted on anonymity to discuss an executive order that is not yet public.While other border activity, such as trade, is expected to continue, the 1,500 threshold at which the border would reopen for asylum seekers could be hard to reach. The last time the daily average dipped to 1,500 encounters was in July 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Senior White House officials, including chief of staff Jeff Zients and legislative affairs director Shuwanza Goff, have been informing lawmakers on Capitol Hill of details of the planned order ahead of the formal rollout Tuesday. But several questions remain about how the executive order would work, particularly how much cooperation the U.S. would need from Mexican officials to carry out the executive order.The president has been deliberating for months over how to act on his own after bipartisan legislation to clamp down on asylum at the border collapsed because Republicans defected from the deal en masse at the urging of Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Biden continued to consider executive action even though the number of illegal crossings at the southern border has declined for months, partly because of a stepped-up effort by Mexico.Biden administration officials had waited until after Mexico’s presidential elections, held Sunday, to move on the U.S. president’s border actions. Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum, the nation’s first female leader, and Biden said in a statement Monday that he was committed to “advancing the values and interests of both our nations to the benefit of our peoples.” The two spoke on the phone Monday, although White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to say whether they spoke about the pending order.“We continue to look at all options on the table,” Jean-Pierre told reporters traveling with Biden on Air Force One on Monday evening.The executive order will allow Biden to declare that he has pushed the boundaries of his own power after lawmakers, specifically congressional Republicans, killed off what would have been the toughest border and asylum restrictions in some time. Biden’s order is aimed at trying to head off any potential spike in border encounters that could happen later this year, closer to the November elections.Trump’s campaign said in a statement that the order would not be effective and that if “Biden truly wanted to shut down the border, he could do so with a swipe of the same pen.”Trump, describing illegal border crossings as an “invasion,” is trying to blame Biden for recent incidents of migrants being charged with violent crimes, though many studies have shown that immigrants typically commit violent crimes at lower rates than those born in the U.S.For Biden’s executive order, the White House is adopting some policies directly from the bipartisan Senate border deal, including the idea of limiting asylum requests once the encounters hit a certain number. The administration wants to encourage migrants to seek asylum at ports of entry by using the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s CBP One app, which schedules about 1,450 appointments per day.Administration lawyers have been planning to tap executive powers outlined in Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which gives a president broad authority to block entry of certain immigrants into the U.S. if it is deemed “detrimental” to the national interest. It is the same legal rationale used by Trump to take some of his toughest actions on migration as president.
Biden announces order limiting asylum at the southern border in immigration crackdown -President Biden took long-expected executive action Tuesday that will turn away migrants seeking asylum who cross the southern border illegally at times when there is a high volume of daily encounters. The order will be in effect when the seven-day average of daily border crossings exceeds 2,500 between ports of entry, senior administration officials said, meaning it will go into effect immediately. Biden issued a proclamation announcing the change under the Immigration and Nationality Act. Senior administration officials framed the order as a response to congressional inaction on immigration after a bipartisan framework in the Senate was blocked by Republicans for a second time. Administration officials walked a tightrope announcing the order, a forceful but targeted shift on asylum rights — one that administration officials said is not comparable to the Trump administration’s system-wide crackdowns. “There are several differences between the actions that we are taking today and Trump-era policies. The Trump administration attacked almost every facet of the immigration system and did so in a shameful and inhumane way,” a senior administration official told reporters on a call Monday. But the order, which comes during an election year when immigration is set to play a key role, is almost certain to face legal challenges, as well as criticism from some on the left who have argued it echoes Trump’s moves against the asylum system. The core of the new policy is the ability to refuse entry to most foreign nationals who cross the border without prior authorization. For purposes of immigration law, a foreign national enters the United States when they are lawfully admitted by a U.S. official; the new policy will prevent border officials from admitting new asylum seekers while it is active. The order, an interim final rule released by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland, will kick in when the seven-day average of daily encounters at the southwest border and the southern coastal borders exceeds 2,500. When it does, U.S. border officials will stop implementing credible fear interviews for asylum claims and work to quickly expel foreign nationals who’ve crossed the border between ports of entry. Migrants who are expelled under the order will receive a minimum five-year bar on reentry to the United States and potentially be criminally prosecuted. According to administration officials, Mexico will receive nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, as well as its own nationals, in expedited deportations. It’s unclear whether the Biden administration will have enough resources to quickly expel or detain migrants barred from asylum, raising the possibility that more migrants will be released to the interior with orders of deportation rather than asylum claims, limiting their ability to apply for work permits. Senior administration officials said the measure would take effect Tuesday because the seven-day average of daily encounters at the border is more than 2,500, despite the fact that illegal crossings have been on the decline in recent months. One official said the 2,500 number was determined based on similar numbers negotiated by Republicans and Democrats in the Senate as part of a border security deal that failed to pass the chamber. While the measure would be lifted once the seven-day average of daily encounters drops below 1,500, that threshold could prove difficult to meet. The last time the average of daily encounters was below 1,500 was in July 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to The Associated Press.
Biden signs executive action drastically tightening border — Facing mounting political pressure over the migrant influx at the southern border, President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed an executive action that will temporarily shut down asylum requests once the average number of daily encounters tops 2,500 between official ports of entry, according to a senior administration official. “The border is not a political issue to be weaponized," Biden said in a White House speech announcing the order. The shutdown would go into effect immediately since that threshold has already been met, a senior administration official said. The border would reopen only once that number falls to 1,500. The president’s order would come under the Immigration and Nationality Act sections 212(f) and 215(a) suspending entry of noncitizens who cross the southern border into the United States unlawfully. Senior administration officials said Tuesday in a call with reporters that “individuals who cross the southern border unlawfully or without authorization will generally be ineligible for asylum, absent exceptionally compelling circumstances, unless they are accepted by the proclamation.” The officials said that migrants who don’t meet the requirement of having a "credible fear" when they apply for asylum will be immediately removable, and they “anticipate that we will be removing those individuals in a matter of days, if not hours,” The White House conveyed details of the long-awaited move to lawmakers on Monday, but confirmed details of the executive action Tuesday morning ahead of planned remarks by the president in the East Room of the White House alongside mayors from several border towns. “It’s definitely a step in the right direction,” said Texas state Rep. Eddie Morales Jr., whose district includes Eagle Pass. “One of a number of steps that are necessary for us to be able to secure the border.” In 2018, the Trump administration tried to enact similar border restrictions but courts blocked them. The Biden administration now expects to defend the executive action against legal challenges. The executive action will also have some exceptions, including for unaccompanied children. In a written statement, Donald Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavett claimed that exception would give a “green light to child traffickers and sex traffickers” while reiterating the former president’s rallying cry that “the border invasion and migrant crime will not stop until Crooked Joe Biden is deported from the White House.” Republican lawmakers are slamming the move as too little, too late. “(Biden) created a crisis at the border intentionally,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D. “(The executive action) has more political risk than political benefit, particularly because his own base is going to reject it.” But the White House has repeatedly argued that it was congressional Republicans who have failed to act on immigration. Earlier this year, Trump urged House GOP members to kill a bipartisan border funding bill that had been negotiated in the Senate. At the time, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans said that the Senate bill didn’t go far enough and they argued that a more hard-line immigration bill in the House was preferable. “President Biden has led a historic opening of lawful pathways for individuals to and including families, to enter the United States through a lawful process, including the CBP One mobile application to request an appointment to present at a port of entry, as well as family reunification programs in countries throughout the region and a historic parole process for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans,” a senior administration official said. “And so this measure that we are announcing today comes alongside those lawful pathways,” The executive action comes on the heels of a historic presidential election in Mexico and just as the campaign in the U.S. ramps up. Trump has a 30-point edge with registered voters on the question of which candidate would better handle immigration and border security, including a 23-point edge among Latino voters, according to a late-March CNBC national poll. Many immigrant advocates are furious at the president’s harsher immigration policies and argue the changes will cause chaos. “It is a betrayal of what we were told in his campaign four years ago,” said Lindsay Toczylowski, the executive director for the California-based Immigrant Defenders Law Center. “We were told that President Biden would be restoring humanity at our border. … But what we are seeing is that history is repeating itself.” Lee Gelernt, the deputy director of the ACLU's Immigrants’ Rights Project who argued the challenge to asylum restrictions during the Trump administration, said the advocacy group planned to sue. “A ban on asylum is illegal just as it was when Trump unsuccessfully tried it,” Gelernt said in a statement.
Biden issues Trump-style executive order eliminating right to asylum -- In one of the most far-reaching attacks on immigrants and refugees in US history, President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed an executive order that effectively abolishes the right to claim asylum in the United States. With a stroke of a pen, in contravention of national and international law established following the Holocaust, the new order blocks refugees from claiming asylum in the United States along the US-Mexico border and southern coasts unless and until there is a steep decline in efforts of migrants to enter the country. Flanked by Department of Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Democratic Governors Kathy Hochul (New York) and Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico), as well as mayors, representatives and sheriffs from Texas, Biden declared: I’m announcing actions to bar migrants who cross our southern border unlawfully from receiving asylum. Migrants will be restricted from receiving asylum at our southern border unless they seek it after entering through an established lawful process. He added that the “ban will remain in place until the number of people trying to enter illegally is reduced to a level that our system can effectively manage.” The order signed Tuesday allows the president to declare an “emergency” if daily “unauthorized crossings” reach 2,500. Senior administration officials confirmed to reporters that the order as currently constituted would take effect immediately, implementing de facto a quota system for the first time since the Immigration Act of 1924, infamously praised by Hitler and the Nazis. Biden signed his executive order 85 years to the day that the MS St. Louis, a passenger ship carrying 937 Jewish refugees, was blocked from the port of Miami by the Roosevelt administration under provisions included in the 1924 Act. After being refused asylum, the ship returned to Europe and hundreds of its passengers were subsequently murdered in the Holocaust. Biden, who campaigned in 2020 on protecting immigrant and asylum rights, is now using the same presidential authority (Section 212 of the Immigration and Nationality Act) invoked by then-President Donald Trump to institute his “Muslim ban.” Far from being a “lesser evil,” Biden and the Democratic Party are implementing Trump’s fascistic anti-immigrant policies. There is no question that Tuesday’s ruling will lead to further death and deprivation along the border. Biden’s order is part of a racist, xenophobic campaign by the American ruling class aimed at blocking workers and their families, in many cases fleeing countries devastated by US imperialist wars and economic sanctions, from seeking safety in the United States. The attack on the right to asylum is part of a broader assault on the democratic rights of the working class as a whole. For the last two months, Biden has spearheaded a savage campaign of police attacks and mass arrests against students, faculty and campus workers demonstrating against the US/Israeli genocide in Gaza. Joining with Republican fascists, Biden has smeared the campus protests, in which tens of thousands of Jewish students have participated, as “antisemitic”—all the while defending and arming the Israel Defense Forces’ campaign of mass murder, destruction of health care and enforced famine that has already killed some 45,000 Palestinians, mainly women and children. Speaking from the White House Tuesday, Biden blamed House Republicans for forcing his hand on the border by not accepting a previously negotiated anti-immigrant package that was attached to a $95 billion military supplemental request. In seeking support for the global war bill, Biden had implored Trump to “join me” in backing the anti-immigrant bill. That bill included, in addition to billions of dollars for the border Gestapo, the anti-asylum provisions that Biden has now initiated by executive order. Biden’s claim to be defending democracy against Trump stands further exposed as a fraud. What drives Biden and the Democratic Party is the ruling class policy of global war, first and foremost the reckless escalation of the war against Russia, which threatens to trigger a nuclear Armageddon. Implementation of this policy of world war requires an all-out assault on the democratic and social rights of the working class within the United States.
‘A Monstrosity’: Biden Blasted Over Planned Executive Order on Asylum --Yves here. Having had such loose immigration enforcement, I am not sure how the US puts the genie in the bottle. Yes, there are legal and moral reasons to allow asylum-seekers to enter. But the evidence is strong that most immigrants who seek entry via the Mexico border are economic migrants and not victims of persecution. And it’s also painfully difficult, save for prominent figures (or victims of targeting of particular ethnic groups) to determine if most asylum claims are bona fide. Here is who the US says is eligible for asylum: To be eligible for asylum, you must be:Inside the United StatesAble to demonstrate that you were persecuted or have a fear of persecution in your home country due to your:
- Race
- Religion
- Nationality
- Social group
- Political opinion
So it’s bothersome to see painfully well-meaning articles pretend that the US does not have a big problem with illegal economic immigrants, both currently and historically. And this does not sit well with workers who suffer from competition from them, as well as entrants who went through the legal hoops to have the right to live and seek employment here. Originally published at Common DreamsMigrant rights advocates were outraged by Monday reporting that U.S. President Joe Biden plans to hold an event at the White House on Tuesday to unveil a long-feared executive order that would block people from seeking asylum when the number of unlawful border crossings hits a certain threshold.Biden’s order “would shut down asylum requests to the U.S.-Mexico border once the number of daily encounters hits 2,500 between ports of entry, with the border reopening once that number declines to 1,500,” according toThe Associated Press—and various other media outlets that also cited unnamed officials who cautioned that the final figures could still change.The Democrat is expected to invoke Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which was previously used by former President Donald Trump—the presumptive Republican nominee to face Biden in November—and sparked legal challenges.“We will need to see the E.O. before making any litigation decisions,” Lee Gelernt, an attorney who serves as deputy director of the ACLU Immigrants’ Rights Project, toldAxios of Biden’s expected move. “Any policy that effectively ends asylum protection for people fleeing danger would raise significant legal problems, as it did when Trump tried to end asylum.”In response to a social media account tracking “Biden’s Wins,” which welcomed the reported order, Gelernt’s ACLU colleague Gillian Branstetter said: “This is not a ‘win’—it’s a monstrosity. Asylum is a human right.”After one social media user sarcastically told Branstetter, “I’m sure you’ll love Trump’s border policies,” she stressed, “This is Trump’s border policy.”American Immigration Council policy director Aaron Reichlin-Melnick similarly said that “the politics may have changed by the law hasn’t; Trump tried to invoke section 212(f) to block asylum at the border and was slapped down in court. Biden’s effort to do the same will also face immediate legal challenges.”Reichlin-Melnick also highlighted a policy brief that the American Immigration Lawyers Association released in response to the reports, which takes aim at both the legality and effectiveness of the Biden administration’s supposed plans.“The decision by this administration to criminalize migrants—many of whom are fleeing harm—is deeply disturbing and misguided,” said Sarah M. Rich, senior supervising attorney and interim senior policy counsel at the Southern Poverty Law Center, in a statement. “We have witnessed how such prosecutions can be weaponized to separate and traumatize immigrant families.” “Prosecuting people seeking safety in the U.S. for these immigration violations will lead to more Black and Brown people being incarcerated at the expense of immigrant families and communities,” Rich continued. “We call on the Biden administration to instead adopt a humane and welcoming immigration framework that centers our values as a nation that welcomes immigrants.” CNN reported that “unaccompanied children would be exempt—a key piece of the executive order that would worry immigration advocates who have said such an exemption could encourage some families to send children to the border on their own.”Save the Children U.S. declared that “seeking asylum is a basic human right. We’ve seen what happens when children and families are separated and their right to safety is restricted. We can’t let that happen again.” Meanwhile, Congressman Henry Cuellar, a right-wing Texas Democrat who has criticized Biden for not increasing border enforcement and is currently battling bribery charges, praised the president’s pending policy.“I’ve been briefed on the pending executive order,” said Cuellar. “I certainly support it because I’ve been advocating for these measures for years. While the order is yet to be released, I am supportive of the details provided to me thus far.”At least five Texas mayors have been invited to the White House for the Tuesday event, according to CNN. Plans for the order come a few weeks before the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle and follow the proposal last month of U.S. Department of Homeland Security rule to fast-track the rejection of certain asylum requests, which was condemned as a “return to failed Trump-era policies.” The reporting also follows the Sunday electoral victory of the next Mexican president, leftist Claudia Sheinbaum—who on Monday received a congratulatory call from Biden. The AP noted that “the number of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has declined for months, partly because of a stepped-up effort by Mexico.” Biden’s anticipated action would also come after the U.S. Senate again killed the bipartisan Border Act. While Republican senators blocked the legislation at the direction of Trump, who wants to continue campaigning for president on immigration policy, the measure was also opposed by progressive lawmakers and advocates.
Rubio writes off Biden southern border executive order on asylum as a 'joke' -Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) is joining the chorus of Republicans deriding President Biden’s executive order to limit asylum at the southern border, calling the plan a “joke” that would do little to lower the number of crossings, even if it is fully implemented. “Biden new border ‘plan’ is a joke,” Rubio said in a Tuesday post on social media platform X. “Even if Biden actually enforced it fully (which he won’t) it would still allow close to a million people a year to cross illegally ON TOP OF the 10 million he has already allowed in over the last 3 years,” he said. The order would prohibit seeking asylum who cross between ports of entry at times when the seven-day average of such migrants is more than 2,500, which is currently the case.The administration has long been criticized by conservatives for not doing enough to quell the flow of migrants into the country. The order was unveiled after bipartisan border legislation was for a second time blocked by GOP members in the Senate. There were 179,725 encounters by Border Patrol agents along the U.S.-Mexico border in April,according to Customs and Border Protection. Biden’s Tuesday move is taking fire from both side of the aisle.“I’m disappointed that this is a direction that the president has decided to take,” Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said ahead of its release. The American Civil Liberties Union immediately threatened to challenge the action in court. Rubio, seen as a potential 2024 running mate for former President Trump has been going after Biden more aggressively, calling the president a “demented man.”
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas Mayorkas says Speaker Mike Johnson 'mistaken' in attack on border order - Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) remarks during a Wednesday television appearance regarding President Biden’s executive order limiting asylum at the southern border were “mistaken,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a Friday interview. Mayorkas was reacting to Johnson’s comments during an interview with Fox News host Neil Cavuto in which Johnson told Cavuto that Biden could solve the border crisis and close the southern border entirely if he actually wanted to.“If he really wanted to solve the border, Neil, he could close the border entirely. But this half-measure executive order he just did actually exacerbates the problem. He’s allowing thousands of people over the border every day before they just begin to enforce existing federal immigration law,” Johnson said, referencing Biden.“I think it’s mistaken,” Mayorkas later told CNN, responding to Johnson’s quote. “I wish the Speaker would actually promote and pass the Senate’s bipartisan legislation that would be the toughest enforcement measures in more than 30 years.”“Action speaks louder than words,” Mayorkas said, “and the words are mistaken.”Johnson also said in the Wednesday interview that Mayorkas “has a serious problem with the truth,” which was why, the Speaker argued, he needed to be impeached. “What I say, is this is exactly why we had to impeach Secretary Mayorkas — he has a serious problem with the truth. What he’s saying is comical,” Johnson told Cavuto. Johnson disputed Mayorkas’s comments that Congress failed to act on border security, forcing the Biden administration’s hand. “We expected Congress to act. They did not act once, they recently failed to act twice, and we took this executive action. It’s not too little and it’s not too late, we had hoped that Congress would act, they have failed to do so, and the president exercised his executive authority, as he has done now,” Mayorkas had told Cavuto in an earlier interview. “He just said that the Republicans didn’t act? We passed H.R. 2 — the most secure border measure in the history of Congress — 14 months ago. It is still sitting on [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer’s [D-N.Y.] desk in the Senate right now. That would have actually fixed the problem,” Johnson said, referring to the southern border crisis. The back-and-forth via interviews came in the immediate days following President Biden’sexecutive action Tuesday, which would turn away migrants seeking asylum who cross the southern border illegally at times when daily encounters reach high volumes.The order would take effect when the seven-day average of daily border crossings exceed 2,500 between ports of entry, senior administration officials, meaning it went into effect immediately.The Speaker slammed the order ahead of its unveiling, telling reporters it was “weak” and calling it “window dressing.”
Joe Manchin pushing to overturn Biden rule on unaccompanied migrant children - Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), who last week left the Democratic Party to become an independent, is leading 45 of his Senate Republican colleagues on a resolution to overturn a Biden administration rule on the care of unaccompanied migrant children. “We have a crisis at our southern border and its human impacts are absolutely devastating. I have repeatedly called on President Biden to use his executive powers to shut it down and address the cycles of exploitation that illegal immigration empowers. Instead, the Administration is allowing rules like this one to jeopardize the safety of migrant children and trust them in the hands of unvetted sponsors,” Manchin said in a statement. Manchin says the rule put forth by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) would allow for lax or optional vetting of sponsors for the children and would not require a sponsor’s criminal history, including drug abuse, abuse or neglect, to be considered as necessarily disqualifying child welfare concerns. Manchin’s office said the administration’s new rule would not require a sponsor to share their immigration status with law enforcement and would implement “weak standards” for postrelease home studies to determine a child migrant’s welfare while in the custody of the sponsor. Manchin also objects to restrictions on whistleblowers’ rights to disclose to Congress and the Health and Human Services inspector general information about misconduct in the program. When immigration authorities apprehend a child who enters the country without a parent or legal guardian, they transfer the child to the custody of the Office of Refugee Resettlement until that child is released to a sponsor, who is usually a family member, to wait for court proceedings, according to HHS. Sponsors must be found suitable to provide for a child’s well-being, and all sponsors must pass background checks. In announcing the rule in April, HHS officials touted it as an improvement on the 1997 Flores Settlement Agreement by setting improved standards for placement and release of unaccompanied children, emergency and influx operations, transportation and monitoring requirements. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said it “underscores HHS’ unwavering commitment to the health, safety, and welfare of unaccompanied children in our care.” “By enhancing the legal framework governing the UC Program, we set clear standards for the care and treatment of unaccompanied children in ORR’s custody and the support they receive as they transition into new communities,” he added. Manchin can bring the resolution to Congressional Review Act and force a vote regardless of colleagues’ objections. It cannot be filibustered.
House Democrats Accuse Big Oil Of Price Gouging - A group of House Democrats have called on the Department of Justice to launch a probe into the oil industry, accusing the two largest U.S. energy companies of a conspiracy to keep fuel prices high.In a letter sent to the Department of Justice by Rep. Jerrold Nadler and signed by nine more House members, the group claimed that the record profits that Exxon and Chevron reported last year were proof they were conspiring against Americans by keeping fuel prices high.“By any measure, these are good times for oil companies in the United States. Last year, the two largest U.S. oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. (“Exxon”) and Chevron Corp. (“Chevron”), both earned their biggest annual profits in a decade,” the House Democrats wrote.“But apparently, instead of passing those profits through to consumers in the form of cheaper products, the oil giants have been lining their own pockets while conspiring to keep prices high.”The letter also accused the U.S. oil industry of colluding with OPEC and OPEC+, with its authors writing that “If U.S. oil companies are colluding with each other and foreign cartels to manipulate global oil markets and harm American consumers who then pay more at the pump, Congress and the American people deserve to know.” The OPEC collusion accusation follows charges leveled at the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources by the Federal Trade Commission during Exxon’s takeover of the company.The FTC alleged that Scott Sheffield had colluded with OPEC and OPEC+ members to limit production and increase oil prices in comments on its approval of Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer. The allegations shook the shale oil world, where several large consolidation deals are awaiting the trade watchdog’s approval.Sheffield hit back by saying there was no merit to the charges and that “Publicly and unjustifiably vilifying me will have a chilling effect on the ability of business leaders in any sector of our economy to address shareholder demands and to exercise their constitutionally protected right to advocate for their industries,”U.S. Could Accelerate Refill Rate Of Strategic Petroleum Reserve -The United States could accelerate the pace of buying crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), as all four sites would be available by the end of the year after a maintenance period, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm told Reuters in an interview.“All four sites will be back up by the end of the year, so one could imagine that pace would pick up, depending on the market,” Secretary Granholm said, commenting on the current pace of buying about 3 million barrels of crude for the reserve per month this year.The U.S. saw the stockpiles of crude oil in the SPR fall from 638 million barrels at President Joe Biden’s inauguration to just 347 million barrels by the summer of 2023 as the Administration tried to bring down gasoline prices for consumers. The large sell-off in the country’s safety supply of crude oil was met with criticism. Also met with criticism has been the Administration’s slow response to falling oil prices—a perfect opportunity for any Administration earnestly looking to replenish SPR oil inventories.In March, the U.S. Department of Energy expected only 40 million barrels to be refilled by the end of this year, but another 140 million barrels of crude will stay in the SPR after the cancellation of congressionally mandated sales from 2022, according to Reuters.The Biden Administration could now accelerate the rate of repurchases of crude for the SPR as it views the global oil markets well-supplied and does not expect wild swings in prices or spikes in the “next short while,” Secretary Granholm told Reuters.Earlier this year, the energy secretary said that the Biden Administration aims to have crude in the SPR by the end of the year back up to the levels before the massive sales of 180 million barrels in the past two years. The Administration continues to target purchases of crude for the strategic reserve at a price of $79 per barrel or below. Early on Wednesday, the WTI Crude price was at around $73 a barrel.
A Research Duel Heats up Amid High-Stakes Decision on LNG Exports – DeSmog - Industry and academic groups have launched a research arms race to influence the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision about whether more liquified natural gas exports are in the public interest.In late January, President Joe Biden announced that the agency would temporarily stop processing pending applications to export LNG to countries that don’t have a trade agreement with the U.S., which includes the majority of countries importing U.S. LNG. That pause will lift when the Energy Department updates the climate and economic analysis underpinning its export authorizations. This has not interrupted the seven LNG export terminals currently operating in the U.S. or the eight under construction. But the move could result in a decision limiting more LNG exports in a country that’s already the world’s top LNG exporter — and groups see an opening to sway minds. “There is always a concern that DOE would be influenced by an industry-funded report. That is the very nature of the government’s relationship with the fossil fuel industry, which has a long history of producing misleading and inaccurate information,” said Robin Saha, director of the environmental studies program at the University of Montana and a co-author of a May impact assessment of the LNG buildout in Louisiana and Texas. “It is vital that the DOE also engage and include the data provided by communities living closest to the LNG facilities in operation to provide a comprehensive analysis.” Local fishers and environmental advocacy groups have warned that the LNG export pause didn’t go far enough in addressing concerns raised by Gulf Coast residents. They’re calling for the Biden administration to ban further expansion of the industry. “We’ve seen the destruction just one of these plants has. So for it to be in the public interest to build the other ones is just a ridiculous notion,” said Cameron Parish fisherman Travis Dardar, who wasn’t involved in the research. “We’re fighting this because we have nothing left to lose. They’ve taken everything from us. They’ve taken basically all the docks.”The impact assessment Saha co-authored with academics at the Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at Texas Southern University found that the LNG buildout disproportionately harms low-income neighborhoods and communities of color. The industry contributes to climate change and has the potential to inflate U.S. electricity prices; people living near these facilities face air pollution on top of that, the study concluded. The Center is submitting the report to the Energy Department, said co-author Liza T. Powers, a postdoctoral fellow at the Bullard Center. “To date, the licensing and application process for LNG facilities have failed to acknowledge or address environmental and climate justice issues,” she said. “We argue that taking into account the cumulative impacts, including climate impact of LNG, leads to the conclusion that LNG does not serve the public interest.”The Biden administration’s pause on LNG export project approvals was initiated after a study by Cornell University professor Robert Warren Howarth found LNG exports could be worse for the planet than coal. Arevised version of that study is undergoing peer review.LNG export companies are pushing back on Howarth’s findings. A study funded by exporter lobbying group LNG Allies and published in April by the consulting firm Berkeley Research Group concluded that U.S. LNG produces less than half the emissions from coal when used for electricity in Europe and Asia, and about 20% less emissions than gas coming from Russia.“I think industry got the result they paid for,” Howarth told DeSmog after reviewing that report. The industry-funded study does not provide the specific data sources used to calculate methane emissions from drilling, fracking, flaring, processing, and transporting natural gas, Howarth pointed out. “The upstream emissions are a big part of the total in my analysis. If we correct their analysis for having low-balled these emissions, then we are not that far off,” he said.
44 Senators, 138 House Mbrs Intro Resolution to Block EPA Power Reg -Marcellus Drilling News -The Bidenistas at the EPA attacked coal and gas-fired power plants in April, threatening to destabilize the existing electric power grid with new regulations (see EPA Rolls Out Final Regs Attacking Coal & Gas-Fired Power). Using 1,020 pages of new regulations, which will go into effect this year, all coal-fired plants that are slated to remain operational in the long term and all new gas-fired power plants will be required to control (capture) 90% of their carbon emissions using expensive and unproven technology. Translation: New gas-fired plants won’t get built, and most, if not all, coal plants will shutter, with the result that electricity will, by necessity, be rationed (see WSJ Calls Biden EPA Power Plant Regs a Plan to “Ration Electricity”). A number of lawsuits have been filed against the new regulation. Now, members of Congress are adding their voices, intending to block the new reg using a Congressional Joint Resolution. The resolution was simultaneously introduced yesterday in the Senate and House.
China's EV Boom Sparks Trade Tensions with US and EU - The United States and the European Union fear the Chinese electric vehicle competition, the founder and CEO of China’s EV manufacturing giant BYD said on Friday. “There are many examples of politicians in other countries who are worried about EVs in China,” BYD founder, CEO, and chairman Wang Chuanfu said at an industry event in China, as carried by Bloomberg.The Chinese billionaire said that the idea to slap tariffs on Chinese EVs shows that China’s electric vehicle industry is strong. “If you are not strong enough, they will not be afraid of you,” Wang said in a speech at the event. While U.S. and European automakers struggle with weaker demand for electric vehicles, China is churning out a growing number of small and cheap EVs that are taking over the domestic car market and other markets in Asia.The EU launched in October 2023 anti-subsidy investigations into EU imports of EVs from China to determine whether the value chains in China benefit from illegal subsidies.The findings of the investigation will establish whether it is in the EU's interest to impose anti-subsidy duties on EV imports from China, the European Commission said at the time. The EU probe into the Chinese subsidies is set to conclude by November, but the bloc could impose tariffs as early as July.Rumors are circulating that the EU could impose a 20% tariff. China, for its part, has threatened a 25% car tariff on EU and U.S. vehicles with big engines, which will hit higher-end European brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW the most.Sales of China-made electric cars in Europe went up by 23% over the first four months of the year despite efforts by EU authorities to set up barriers for these imports in a bid to protect local manufacturers.Some 119,300 electric cars manufactured in China were registered in Western Europe, including the UK, between January and April this year, the Financial Times reported earlier this week, citing data compiled by Schmidt Automotive Research. Over half of these, or 54%, were vehicles of Western European brands as well as Teslas and Japanese-brand EVs. The rest were Chinese EV brands.
Senators take highway official to task over EV chargers - The Biden administration’s $7.5 billion plan to build a network of electric vehicle chargers is still moving slowly, although the pace of construction is expected to improve soon, a senior administration official said Wednesday on Capitol Hill.To date, dozens of charging ports have been installed in six states under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure initiative (NEVI) from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, Federal Highway Administration head Shailen Bhatt said.That drew criticism from members of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, who said they’re also concerned about progress on other parts of the infrastructure law.“It is a big deal because you can’t really depend upon an electric car if there’s not a charging capability, and the fact that we passed this bill years ago and not one charging station has been built in my state,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said during a hearing.
Alleging links to forced labor, Republicans call for ban on companies tied to Ford, Volkswagen EVs -A group of Republicans this week called on the Biden administration to ban imports from two Chinese companies that have ties to Ford and Volkswagen respectively, alleging that the battery companies also have ties to forced labor in China. In a pair of letters to the Department of Homeland Security this week, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) alongside Reps. John Moolenaar (Mich.), Mark Green (Tenn.), Darin LaHood (Ill.) and Carlos Gimenez (Fla.) called for a ban on the companies Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) and Gotion.They wrote that the companies’ “supply chains are deeply compromised” by links to those produced in Xinjiang, a region of China, where China has been accused of human rights abuses against the Uyghur ethnic group.Specifically, they wrote that CATL “is affiliated with Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps … a paramilitary and state-owned system and the only entity expressly named in the [Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act] statute due to its egregious forced labor practices.” And they said that Gotion “maintains extensive business relationships in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region … and in other provinces or regions in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with companies directly linked to forced labor and involved in the ongoing genocide of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim ethnic groups.”CATL, which has a battery deal with Ford, denied the accusations levied by the lawmakers. “A June 5 letter by U.S. members of Congress, accusing CATL of having connections to forced labor, is groundless and completely false,” the company said in a statement on its website.“It cites information about suppliers in an inaccurate and misleading way. With some suppliers quoted in the letter, business relations ceased long ago,” it continued. “With other suppliers, business relations have been conducted with different subsidiaries and with absolutely no connection to forced labor or anything that violates U.S. applicable laws and regulations.”
Lawmakers escalate push for new solar import tariffs - A bipartisan coalition on Capitol Hill is pressing President Joe Biden to do more against unfair Chinese solar trade practices as a yearslong tariff moratorium expires Thursday.Two letters — one signed by moderate Democrats in the Senate and House and the other authored by House Republicans — ask Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. International Trade Commission Chair David Johanson to support a new petition designed to counteract Chinese solar panel manufacturing in four Southeast Asian countries.“China’s cheating unaddressed puts thousands of American solar jobs and the domestic solar industry in jeopardy,” lawmakers wrote in the letter led by Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Rep. Marcy Kaptur.The Republicans, led by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), said in their own missive that, “Despite significant investment, robust demand, and a growing workforce, American workers cannot compete when the deck is stacked against them so severely.”The issue has split Democrats and pitted solar installers against companies that make components in states like Ohio.Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has argued that imposing additional tariffs would hurt efforts to increase solar energy production and meet climate goals.“We’ve got a growing solar industry, not only in Arizona, but across this country,” Kelly said this year. “We can’t put ourselves in a situation that results in projects being shut down because they don’t have access to [solar panel] parts.”In 2022, the Biden administration — at the urging of solar installers and their allies on the Hill — put a two-year hold on tariffs for Chinese manufacturers who skirted duties by routing panels through Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.In April, a new coalition of seven leading U.S. solar manufacturers filed a petition with the Commerce Department requesting new tariffs on imports from four Southeast Asian nations.The group alleged that some Chinese companies had moved their heavily subsidized solar operations to skirt the penalties set to take effect this week. “With more than 40 GW of new wafer capacity built in Southeast Asia in recent years to avoid the circumvention ruling, we expect the end of this moratorium to have a relatively small impact on leveling the playing field for our domestic industry,” said Tim Brightbill, lead counsel for the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee. Along with Brown and Kaptur, several of the signatories of the Democratic letter are lawmakers facing tight reelections, including Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.). The Biden administration did levy new tariffs on Chinese solar panel parts and electric vehicles in May, but those would not affect the Chinese-controlled solar production in Southeast Asia. The International Trade Commission (ITC) will vote on their preliminary determination in the new tariff investigation on Friday.
White House forges deals with fusion pioneers - After a year of challenging negotiations, the Department of Energy has reached grant agreements with eight pioneering fusion technology companies seeking to prove that the energy of the stars can be delivered to the nation’s power grid. The grants are the first round in a congressionally authorized Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program. The companies will share an initial $46 million to support their competing campaigns to develop pilot plants that could demonstrate the commercial viability of fusion reactors. Fusion reactors promise to produce carbon-free power by slamming hydrogen atoms together under enormous heat and pressure, without the threatening radiation that today’s fission reactors must manage. Advertisement The agreements were announced at a conference Thursday at the White House that brought government and private-sector fusion experts together to mark the second anniversary of President Joe Biden’s “Decadal Vision” commitment to developing fusion power. The Biden administration’s big show of support for a source of clean power that could have decades to go — one that requires extraordinary scientific progress — is partly targeted at members of Congress who control future funding. “We have had remarkable breakthroughs in fusion research,” DOE Deputy Secretary David Turk told the meeting. “We need to build on that momentum,” Turk said, citing DOE’s publication of a new long-term fusion strategy document issued Thursday. “But it doesn’t just happen on its own. … We need to have that urgency, that focus to get things done as quickly as we possibly can.” The companies in the program are relative newcomers in the energy industry, with fractions of capital compared to the sector’s giants. But many have strong connections with a widespread research and scientific community that has been pursuing fusion science for a half-century.
Fossil fuel allies ramp up calls for Supreme Court to crush climate cases - Allies of the fossil fuel industry and former President Donald Trump’s judicial adviser are mounting an unprecedented pressure campaign to convince the Supreme Court to side with the fossil fuel industry in a long-running legal dispute that could put oil and gas companies on the hook for billions of dollars.The court is scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss whether to take up the oil industry’s latest request to dismiss dozens of lawsuits filed by U.S. cities, states and counties seeking to hold Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other companies financially accountable for lying about the dangers of burning fossil fuels. The justices could grant or reject the petition in the coming days.Ahead of the justices’ discussion of the petition, Sunoco v. City and County of Honolulu, climate litigation critics, including those with ties to judicial activist Leonard Leo, have penned opinion pieces in conservative outlets and taken to social media with entreaties for the high court to intervene.“Honolulu is attempting to use the law of one state to dominate the others, seizing for itself the power to control and regulate through judicial decree nationwide economic activity,” Carrie Severino, a Leo ally and former clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas, wrote this week in the National Review.The high court’s intervention would “prevent an assault on federalism,” wrote Severino, the president of JCN, once known as the Judicial Crisis Network and registered with the IRS as the Concord Fund. The fund is among the network of tax-exempt nonprofits led by Leo, co-chair of the Federalist Society and a judicial activist who helped select Trump’s Supreme Court nominees.Sunoco v. Honolulu is one of thousands of petitions filed with the Supreme Court each term. Each has only a small chance of being reviewed by the justices. The Supreme Court has gotten involved in the climate liability cases once before, siding with the oil industry in 2021 on a hypertechnical question in their quest to bump the litigation from state to federal judges.Since then, federal judges have largely agreed to let the cases proceed in state court, and the Supreme Court has declined to weigh in again.In addition to the media campaign surrounding Sunoco v. Honolulu, Republican attorneys general in 19 states last month took the unusual step of launching their own bid to kill lawsuits filed by some of their Democratic counterparts. The plea invokes the Supreme Court’s exclusive jurisdiction in legal battles between states.All of the Republican attorneys general involved in the state plea are listed as members of the Republican Attorneys General Association, which has counted the Concord Fund as one its biggest contributors. Many of the same red states also filed a “friend of the court” brief siding with the oil industry in the Honolulu case. The Center for Climate Integrity, which has encouraged local governments to seek litigation as a way of forcing oil companies to pay for the costs of climate change, said the fossil fuel industry is intensifying its efforts to persuade the conservative-dominated Supreme Court to quash the lawsuits. “This looks to be the most aggressive campaign yet to influence the court on behalf of Big Oil,” said Kert Davies, the group’s director of special investigations. “The fossil fuel industry and its allies are clearly threatened by these legal efforts to hold them accountable, and they’re going to unprecedented lengths to send out distress signals in the hope they’ll be rescued from standing trial.” Indeed, the industry’s Honolulu petition has attracted twice as many amicus briefs as the oil industry’s last effort to get the climate liability cases tossed, which the court rejected in January. The court noted at the time that Justice Brett Kavanaugh would have granted the case. It takes the vote of four justices to hear a case.
Trump eyes cutting Interior, 'environment agencies' - Former President Donald Trump said he wants to cut the Interior Department if he returns to the White House, and indicated “environmental agencies” more broadly are also on the chopping block. Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee to run against President Joe Biden in November, revealed the plans in an interview with Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” that aired Sunday, when talking about wasteful government programs he’d slash. “We’re going to do, like, Department of Interior,” he told host Rachel Campos-Duffy, without expanding on his plans for the department that oversees energy production on federal land, among other responsibilities. “There’s so many things you can do,” he continued. “One of the things that is so bad for us is the environmental agencies. They make it impossible to do anything,” Trump said, going on to boast that he approved a liquefied natural gas export terminal in 24 hours after a company spent 14 years working on it. “The environmental agencies have stopped — they’ve stopped you from doing business in this country. And we did a great job,” he said. Asked to clarify Trump’s plans, spokesperson Karoline Leavitt contrasted the candidates’ energy records. “No one has done more damage to the American oil and gas industry than Joe Biden, who is controlled by the radical environmental extremists in his Administration, shut down the Keystone Pipeline on day one, restricted federal drilling permits, and continues to add burdensome regulations that do nothing but get in the way of production,” she said in a statement. “President Trump made America a net exporter of energy for the first time because he cut red tape and gave the industry more freedom to do what they do best — utilize the liquid gold under our feet to produce clean energy for America and the world — and he will do that again as soon as he gets back to the White House.” Oil and natural gas production and exports have continued to grow throughout Biden’s time in office, and continue to break records. The United States is the top producer of both oil and gas in the world.
Fauci testifies about COVID pandemic response at heated House hearing - — Dr. Anthony Fauci testified on Monday before a Republican-led House panel investigating the origins of COVID-19 and the government's pandemic response, in a widely anticipated hearing where the intense partisan divide over the pandemic was once again on display. The hearing marked Fauci's first public appearance on Capitol Hill since leaving government in 2022, where he served as the chief medical advisor to President Biden and as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci, who was revered by the left and denigrated by the right during the pandemic, was grilled by Republicans on the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, while Democrats came to his aid, decrying what they saw as a politically motivated effort to denigrate him.Last week, the committee released transcripts from a closed-door interview conducted with Fauci in January that it said has been a "critical component" of the committee's investigations into the origins of the virus, government policies during the pandemic and improvements to the U.S. public health system. The interview lasted 14 hours over the course of two days. The panel's chairman, Rep. Brad Wenstrup of Ohio, told CBS News that the interview and the exchanges were cordial and professional. GOP committee staff concluded in a memo of key takeaways that the "lab leak theory" about where the virus originated is "not a conspiracy theory," pointing to comments from Fauci during the interview that it "could be a lab leak or it could be a natural occurrence," though he noted that he believes the evidence he's seen suggests to him that it's more likely a natural occurrence. The memo also claimed that certain pandemic policies lacked supporting scientific evidence, like the guidance to maintain a six-foot distance from others, vaccine mandates and masks for children. Last week, committee Republicans demanded Fauci turn over some personal emails and questioned whether he had been communicating about official government work on his private accounts. A senior adviser to Fauci, Dr. David Morens, faced tough questioning from the panel in May over emails suggesting that he may have been circumventing federal Freedom of Information Act rules by using a "secret back channel" with Fauci. "We have seen officials from your office, in their own writing, discussing breaking federal law, deleting official records, and sharing private government information with grant recipients. The office you directed and those serving under your leadership chose to flout the law and bragged about it," Wenstrup said.Fauci distanced himself from the investigation into Morens, saying they worked in different buildings on the National Institutes of Health's campus. Morens worked with him only on helping to write some scientific papers, Fauci said, and was not an adviser to him on "institute policy or other substantive issues.""Let me state for the record, to the best of my knowledge, I have never conducted official business using my personal email," Fauci told the committee.Fauci said many of Morens' actions were wrong and ran afoul of agency policy. He also directly contradicted Morens' claim, quoted from an email to the EcoHealth Alliance, that Fauci was trying to protect the group. EcoHealth Alliance and its NIH funding has faced scrutiny since early during the pandemic over its ties to the Wuhan Institute of Virology."I don't know where he got that, but that's not true," said Fauci.Fauci repeated a defense he has given for years of NIH's funding for the Wuhan Institute of Virology and EcoHealth Alliance. The agency's grant of $120,000 made up a small fraction of the institute's budget, Fauci said.Fauci said the accusation that he influenced scientists working to determine whether the virus had originated in a lab by bribing them with grant money "is absolutely false and simply preposterous." He also pushed back on the claim that he tried to cover up that the virus originated in the lab, saying he has "always kept an open mind to the different possibilities." "I cannot account, nor can anyone account, for other things that might be going on in China. Which is the reason why I have always said, and will say now, I keep an open mind as to what the origin is," he said, "but the one thing I know for sure is that the viruses that were funded by the NIH, phylogenetically, could not be the precursor of SARS-CoV-2."
Fauci pushes back partisan attacks in fiery House hearing over COVID | (AP) — Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert until leaving the government in 2022, was back before Congress on Monday, calling “simply preposterous” Republican allegations that he’d tried to cover up origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. A GOP-led subcommittee has spent over a year probing the nation’s response to the pandemic and whether U.S.-funded research in China may have played any role in how it started — yet found no evidence linking Fauci to wrongdoing. He’d already been grilled behind closed doors, for 14 hours over two days in January. But Monday, Fauci testified voluntarily in public and on camera at a hearing that quickly deteriorated into partisan attacks. Republicans repeated unproven accusations against the longtime National Institutes of Health scientist while Democrats apologized for Congress besmirching his name and bemoaned a missed opportunity to prepare for the next scary outbreak.“He is not a comic book super villain,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., saying the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic had failed to prove a list of damaging allegations.Fauci was the public face of the government’s early COVID-19 response under then-President Donald Trump and later as an adviser to President Joe Biden. A trusted voice to millions, he also was the target of partisan anger and choked up Monday as he recalled death threats and other harassment of himself and his family, threats he said still continue. Police later escorted hecklers out of the hearing room.The main issue: Many scientists believe the virus most likely emerged in nature and jumped from animals to people, probably at a wildlife market in Wuhan, the city in China where the outbreak began. There’s no new scientific information supporting that the virus might instead have leaked from a laboratory. A U.S. intelligence analysis says there’s insufficient evidence to prove either way -- and a recent Associated Press investigation found the Chinese government froze critical efforts to trace the source of the virus in the first weeks of the outbreak.Fauci has long said publicly that he was open to both theories but that there’s more evidence supporting COVID-19’s natural origins, the way other deadly viruses including coronavirus cousins SARS and MERS jumped into people. It was a position he repeated Monday as Republican lawmakers questioned if he worked behind-the-scenes to squelch the lab-leak theory or even tried to influence intelligence agencies. “I have repeatedly stated that I have a completely open mind to either possibility and that if definitive evidence becomes available to validate or refute either theory, I will ready accept it,” Fauci said. He later invoked a fictional secret agent, decrying a conspiracy theory that “I was parachuting into the CIA like Jason Bourne and told the CIA that they should really not be talking about a lab leak.” Republicans also have accused Fauci of lying to Congress in denying that his agency funded “gain of function” research – the practicing of enhancing a virus in a lab to study its potential real-world impact – at a lab in Wuhan. NIH for years gave grants to a New York nonprofit called EcoHealth Alliance that used some of the funds to work with a Chinese lab studying coronaviruses commonly carried by bats. Last month, the government suspended EcoHealth’s federal funding, citing its failure to properly monitor some of those experiments. The definition of “gain of function” covers both general research and especially risky experiments to “enhance” the ability of potentially pandemic pathogens to spread or cause severe disease in humans. Fauci stressed he was using the risky experiment definition, saying “it would be molecularly impossible” for the bat viruses studied with EcoHealth’s funds to be turned into the virus that caused the pandemic. The pandemic’s origins weren’t the only hot topic. The House panel also blasted some public health measures taken to slow spread of the virus before COVID-19 vaccines, spurred by NIAID research, helped allow a return to normalcy. Ordering people to stay 6 feet apart meant many businesses, schools and churches couldn’t stay open, and subcommittee chairman Rep. Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio, called it a “burdensome” and arbitrary rule, noting that in his prior closed-door testimony Fauci had acknowledged it wasn’t scientifically backed. Fauci responded Monday that the 6-feet distancing wasn’t his guideline but one created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention before scientists had learned that the new virus was airborne, not spread simply by droplets emitted a certain distance.
‘Preposterous’: Anthony Fauci denies cover-up of COVID origins during tense hearing -- Anthony Fauci, the former head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), emphatically fended off allegations at a Republican-led hearing in Washington DC today that his agency funded research that created the COVID-19 pandemic and that he coordinated a cover-up of the pandemic’s origins, calling the claims “simply preposterous”. The 3 June session was one of the most anticipated of the hearings hosted by the US House of Representatives Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. The subcommittee has held a total of 27 hearings and briefings over the past 15 months to examine the federal government’s response to the pandemic and to attempt to uncover the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.As has been the case at most of the hearings, the questioning during Fauci’s session reflected a deep political divide in the US government. Republicans criticized Fauci’s oversight of both NIAID-funded research grants and the institute’s staff members. Meanwhile, Democrats sang the praises of the former chief medical adviser to US President Joe Biden, commending him on a distinguished career that has seen many lives saved through his research on AIDS treatments and the development of COVID-19 vaccines.Peter Hotez, a vaccine scientist at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Texas, told Nature that the hearing was a Republican “attempt at revisionist history” to ignore the policy failures of the administration of former US president Donald Trump early during the pandemic and to “blame the scientists”. Offering another perspective, Roger Pielke Jr, a science-policy researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder, says that the hearing was “substantively frustrating” at times when Fauci, a seasoned public speaker, chose his words carefully and tried to distance himself from people who had been implicated in wrongdoing by the subcommittee’s investigation.Fauci, who stepped down from his role at NIAID in December 2022 after leading the agency for almost 40 years, was the face of the US pandemic response during both the Trump and Biden administrations.Some critics have accused Fauci of suppressing the idea early in the pandemic that China might have accidentally or intentionally released SARS-CoV-2 from a laboratory in Wuhan, the city where the first cases of COVID-19 were detected. Some have alleged that Fauci, along with Francis Collins, former director of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) — of which NIAID is a part — encouraged a group of virologists to publish an article in NatureMedicine1 concluding that a lab-leak scenario was not plausible. (Nature is editorially independent of Nature Medicine, and Nature’s news team is independent of its journals team.)These critics also say that Fauci and Collins were motivated to suppress the lab-leak theory because, before the pandemic, the NIAID had awarded a research grant to the New York City-based non-profit organization EcoHealth Alliance, which had been partnering with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) to study coronaviruses in bats. They have raised the possibility that the WIV used NIAID resources to conduct research that could have spawned SARS-CoV-2. At the hearing, Fauci responded that the available genetic data indicate that the viruses investigated at the WIV “could not be the precursor to SARS-CoV-2”.Most virologists say that although a lab-leak origin is possible, the preponderance of scientific evidence points to a zoonotic origin for the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that the virus spread to humans from wild animals. At the hearing, Fauci said he has always been open to both origin hypotheses, pointing to a February 2020 e-mail he sent to a prominent scientist who was alarmed that SARS-CoV-2 could have leaked from a lab. In the correspondence, Fauci said that any concerns should be reported to intelligence officials if they were substantiated. “It is inconceivable that anyone who reads this e-mail could conclude that I was trying to cover up the possibility of a laboratory leak,” he testified.Raul Ruiz, a Democratic representative from California and ranking member of the subcommittee, said at the hearing that House Republicans have used the guise of investigating the pandemic’s origins to weaponize “concerns about a lab-related origin to fuel sentiment against our nation’s scientists”.
GOP coronavirus panel chair reprimands Greene for refusing to call Fauci doctor --Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was reprimanded by Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Oversight and Accountability Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, for refusing to recognize Anthony Fauci as a doctor while questioning him. Fauci, who became the face of the administration’s COVID-19 response while serving as head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified before the GOP-led committee on Monday for the first time since retiring. During Greene’s turn to question him, the Georgia Republican refused to call Fauci “doctor” and instead referred to him as “Mr. Fauci.” “Do you think that’s appropriate? Do the American people deserve to be abused like that, Mr. Fauci, because you’re not ‘Dr.,’ you’re ‘Mr. Fauci’ in my few minutes,” she said, before adding, “No, I don’t need your answer.” She was pressing him on schools requiring children to wear masks during the pandemic and the 6-feet social distancing guidelines put in place in many public spaces to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) quickly objected, asking, “Just in terms of the rules of decorum, are we allowed to deny that a doctor is a doctor just because we don’t want him to be a doctor?” “Yes, because in my time, that man does not deserve to have a license. As a matter of fact, it should be revoked, and he belongs in jail,” Greene responded. Wenstrup then reprimanded Greene, saying loudly that “the gentlelady will suspend” and instructing her to recognize Fauci as a doctor. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) also said it was “unacceptable” for Greene not to address Fauci with the appropriate title. “It’s completely unacceptable to deny Dr. Fauci, who’s here, a respected member of the medical community, his title. And that’s actually a personal attack on his character,” he said. This prompted Greene to say that Fauci was “not respected” and to double down on not addressing Fauci as doctor. Wenstrup then urged all members of the committee to adhere to the rules of decorum and to be “mindful of their remarks.” Greene concluded her questioning by calling for a criminal referral against Fauci for “crimes against humanity.” “You know what this committee should be doing? We should be recommending you to be prosecuted. We should be writing a criminal referral because you should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. You belong in prison, Dr. Fauci,” Greene said, without allowing time for Fauci to respond.
5 takeaways from Fauci’s heated House hearing - During his first congressional hearing in nearly two years, former chief White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci picked up where he left off: trading barbs with Republicans over the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fauci’s public testimony before the House Oversight and Accountability Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic was long anticipated and preceded by two days of closed-door interviews in January. More recent hearings that focused on Fauci’s former subordinates have raised new questionsabout whether he was aware of and complicit in misconduct with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the agency he headed for decades before retiring at the end of 2022. The longtime government scientist made no effort to hide his dismay when grilled on various conspiracy theories or unfounded claims about his actions regarding COVID-19. And the hearing was marked by some chaotic moments, involving both the House members and Fauci critics in the audience. Here are some takeaways from the hearing.
- Condemns actions of former adviser. Fauci faced multiple questions about former NIAID senior adviser David Morens, who worked with Fauci for several decades. Congressional investigators found that Morens appeared to have attempted to avoid Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests by using his personal email account to communicate with outside entities such as EcoHealth President Peter Daszak. “I can either send stuff to Tony on his private gmail, or hand it to him at work or at his house. He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble,” Morens once wrote to Daszak. Morens also claimed to Daszak that Fauci was seeking to protect EcoHealth from losing a grant. Fauci on Monday emphatically denied the claims and implications in the emails. He even stated he was unsure if Morens reported directly to him, as Morens had claimed.“With respect to his recent testimony before this subcommittee, I knew nothing of Dr. Morens’s actions regarding Dr. Daszak, EcoHealth or his emails. It is important to point out for the record that despite his title, and even though he was helpful to me in writing scientific papers, Dr. Morens was not an advisor to me on [NIAID] policy, or other substantive issues,” Fauci said in his opening remarks.
- Distancing himself from COVID guidance, lab-leak debate.Along with distancing himself from Morens, Fauci also played down his personal influence on pandemic guidance that came out early in the outbreak. One particular issue that was frequently revisited during the hearing was the guidance to stay 6 feet apart to reduce transmission of the virus. During his closed-door interview, Fauci said the 6-feet guidance “sort of just appeared” — a remark that drew the ire of GOP members. “It actually came from the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]. The CDC was responsible for those kinds of guidelines for schools, not me,” Fauci said. “It had little to do with me, since I didn’t make the recommendation. And my saying there was no science behind it means there was no clinical trial that proved that. That’s just one of the things that got a little distorted.” He also refuted accusations that he had sought to cover or downplay a potential lab-leak theory on the origins of the pandemic.
- Greene’s questioning. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) questioning of Fauci marked the most contentious moment of the hearing. Democrats were quick to call for a point of order as she pointedly refused to recognize Fauci as a doctor. “Mr. Fauci, because you’re not doctor, you’re Mr. Fauci in my few minutes,” Greene said, refusing to allow Fauci to respond. This quip led Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) to call for a point of order. Greene in turn called Raskin “Mr. Raskin.” “Just in terms of the rules of decorum, are we allowed to deny that a doctor is a doctor just because we don’t want him to be a doctor?” Raskin asked subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup(R-Ohio). “Yes, because in my time, that man does not deserve to have a license. As a matter of fact, it should be revoked, and he belongs in jail,” Greene responded. Wenstrup, who himself is a physician, repeatedly, and loudly, ordered Greene to suspend her line of questioning and stated she “should recognize the doctor as a doctor.”
- Anti-Fauci contingent turns out.; Greene’s contentious questioning of Fauci was met with applause by some in the audience who appeared to have come to the hearing to speak out against Fauci. Several members of the public who were in the audience were seen wearing T-shirts that read “Got Ivermectin?” an apparent reference to the antiparasitic drug that former President Trump touted as an effective COVID-19 treatment. Some heckling was heard from the public attendees throughout the hearing. One person loudly said “calm down” at one point after Fauci answered a question. Two hecklers were removed from the room by U.S. Capitol Police officers.
- Democrats say they learned nothing new; Immediately following the hearing, Democrats on the committee told reporters that they didn’t believe anything new had been learned from Fauci’s testimony. “Nope, not a single thing, just that they wanted to continue to promote their false allegations and continue to confuse the American people and Dr. Fauci’s word even though he’s explained under context and under oath what he meant by everything that he said,” ranking member Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) said. “He absolutely answered under oath in a way that refuted all the false accusations from Republicans,” Ruiz added. “Now, whether or not that is clear for them and whether or not they will drop their senseless and baseless accusation, I don’t know.”
Anthony Fauci on Marjorie Taylor Greene's refusal to call him 'doctor': An 'unusual performance' -Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci weighed in on Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)’s refusal to recognize him as a doctor, calling it an “unusual performance.” “So that’s the reason why I’m still getting death threats when you have performances like that unusual performance by Marjorie Taylor Greene in today’s hearing,” Fauci told CNN anchorKaitlan Collins on Monday night. Fauci, who was the face of the administration’s COVID-19 response while the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified before the House Oversight and Accountability Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on Monday for the first time since retiring. While questioning Fauci, Greene pointedly refused to recognize Fauci as a doctor and instead referred to him as “Mr. Fauci.” “Do you think that’s appropriate? Do the American people deserve to be abused like that, Mr. Fauci, because you’re not ‘Dr.,’ you’re ‘Mr. Fauci’ in my few minutes,” Greene said before adding, “No, I don’t need your answer.” Greene’s remarks were slammed by some Democrats. She was later reprimanded by Rep. Bran Wenstrup (R-Ohio), the chair of the subcommittee, who said, “The gentlelady will suspend instructed the Georgia Republican to recognize Fauci as a doctor. At another point in the hearing, Fauci grew emotional while describing harassment and death threats he and his family continue to face after becoming the target of criticism over the federal pandemic response. He told the subcommittee there have been “harassment by emails, texts and letters” to him, his wife and three daughters. Fauci on CNN said receiving death threats is a “pattern” for those in positions akin to his, who often make public statements on policies.
Rep. James Comer says he 'likes the idea' of Anthony Fauci being arrested over COVID protocols -Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that he “likes the idea” of former COVID response chief Anthony Fauci being arrested over his testimony Monday about the early Trump administration response to the coronavirus.Comer said Fauci lied to Congress about the government’s early COVID response, claiming he made up the recommended six-foot spacing, which quickly became ubiquitous amid the pandemic and other restrictions.“At the end of the day, if you lie to Congress, that’s a felony,” Comer said in a Fox Business interview. “And when you look at the clip you just showed, everyone knows that Doctor Fauci was the lead instigator in the spacing distance.” “This is something that not only shut down tens of thousands of businesses in America and ran the debt up as a result of having to subsidize those businesses that were shut down and have to subsidize the unemployment rate,” he continued. “It destroyed public education. Kids couldn’t be in school because of the six-foot social distancing requirements that Doctor Fauci championed.” Monday’s testimony was Fauci’s first time answering questions under oath since leaving government. He faced a grilling from many Republican critics who have sought to pin blame on the former White House medical adviser for the struggles Americans faced during the pandemic. Comer said in a Newsmax interview earlier Tuesday that he hopes the testimony can be used to gather evidence for a criminal investigation against Fauci. “Hopefully, we can take his words today and continue to try to gather evidence and take steps to try to hold him in criminal wrongdoing because I believe that the majority of Americans realize that Dr. Fauci made costly mistakes, he’s lied about them and he’s tried to cover it up,” Comer said. Comer chairs the House Oversight Committee, which has sought to connect Fauci to misconduct at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Fauci had headed NIAID for decades but testified that he had no knowledge of a senior adviser’s attempts to avoid public information laws. Fauci was also berated by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who refused to address him as “Doctor,” and got emotional at one point of the hearing when recounting the harassment and death threats he has received for years due to his leadership during the COVID response.
Anthony Fauci, the Wuhan Lab Lie, and the bipartisan war on public health - Monday’s hearing of the Republican-led House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, featuring testimony from Dr. Anthony Fauci, marked a new low in the bipartisan war on science and public health by the entire American political establishment. Exemplifying their fascistic politics, the Republicans brazenly promoted the Wuhan Lab conspiracy theory, claiming that Fauci worked with the Chinese government to engineer the COVID-19 pandemic and then orchestrated a cover-up of his own complicity in the deaths of over 1 million Americans. This McCarthyite show trial, replete with wild accusations and denunciations, was aimed at intimidating scientists and all those who advocate for public health measures against the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the threat of future pandemics. In a blatant provocation, two well-known fascists implicated in Donald Trump’s January 6, 2021 coup attempt were seated directly behind Fauci so as to be visible on screen while he testified. These were Brandon Fellows, who was recently sentenced to three years in jail for participating in the coup, and Ivan Raiklin, a coup plotter and associate of Trump, who once stated, “I have a deep state target list, and I’m coming for all of them.” In the course of his testimony, Fauci noted that he and his family have been the target of credible death threats. Among those who incited such threats were Steve Bannon, who in November 2020 called for Fauci’s beheading. Bannon was also the original purveyor of the Wuhan Lab Lie, a xenophobic conspiracy theory which blamed the Chinese government for the pandemic in order to ideologically prepare the grounds for war. Monday’s hearing took place just over one year after the Biden administration scrapped the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) declaration—the final nail in the coffin of any official response to the pandemic—and against the backdrop of a developing new wave of mass infection in the US, driven by the latest immune-evasive KP.2 and KP.3 variants. According to models based on wastewater data, somewhere from 190,000-440,000 Americans are currently being infected with COVID-19 each day, leading to tens of thousands of daily new Long COVID cases. At the same time, H5N1 “bird flu” is spreading among dozens of species globally and threatens to spill over into the human population, potentially causing a pandemic whose societal impacts would dwarf those of COVID-19. Bird flu has historically had a case fatality rate above 50 percent in humans. None of this contemporary reality was raised at the hearing, as both capitalist political parties have united to enforce the “forever COVID” policy of perpetual mass infection, debilitation and death. Rather, the goal of the subcommittee, accepted by the Democrats, is to rewrite the history of the pandemic in order to undermine the ability of public health to prevent future pandemics. The bulk of Monday’s hearing was devoted to questioning Fauci about the validity of every limited public health measure implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19, including mask and vaccine mandates, social distancing guidelines, temporary school and workplace closures, and more. In each case, the “economic costs” of these measures were deemed unbearable, while their life-saving effects were completely denied, despite ample scientific studies proving the contrary. Much of the media coverage about the hearing has focused on Fauci’s acknowledgement that the six-foot social distancing guidelines put in place at the start of the pandemic in schools and workplaces were “an empiric decision that wasn’t based on data.”This was perhaps the only valid criticism of pandemic policy in the entire hearing, though as Fauci himself noted this policy fell under the purview of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) which he did not oversee.In fact, the six-foot rule was the product of antiquated conceptions about droplet transmission of respiratory pathogens and a deliberate cover-up of the science of airborne transmission at the highest levels. At the very beginning of the pandemic, in April 2020, the world’s leading aerosol physicists and other scientists explained clearly to the World Health Organization (WHO) that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is airborne and spreads through aerosols which accumulate in poorly-ventilated indoor spaces.Despite ample and continuous warnings by these scientists, the WHO and other public health agencies refused to educate the global population on the science of airborne transmission or demand that corporations renovate infrastructure to provide clean indoor air in all buildings. This was among the greatest real crimes of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Merrick Garland fights contempt effort as 'only the most recent' attack on DOJ - Attorney General Merrick Garland on Tuesday will push back against lawmakers who have vowed to hold him in contempt, casting the effort as “only the most recent in a long line of attacks” on the Justice Department.Garland is set to appear before the House Judiciary Committee Tuesday after it, along with the House Oversight Committee, voted last month to hold him in contempt — an effort left in limbo over recess as it’s unclear whether the GOP will be able to secure enough votes to pass the measure on the floor.It’s a busy time for Garland to appear before some of the House’s biggest bomb throwers, though a spokesperson for the Department of Justice (DOJ) said the attorney general plans to “forcefully push back on false narratives regarding the Department’s employees and their work.”Numerous Republicans have vented frustration at the DOJ over former President Trump’s conviction by a New York jury despite the fact that the agency has no control over the state-level prosecution. Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on Monday called for eliminating federal funding for state prosecutors engaged in “abusive ‘lawfare’ tactics to target political opponents.”Garland on Tuesday will call such claims a “conspiracy theory [that] is an attack on the judicial process itself.”
Joe Biden rips 'convicted felon' Donald Trump, says 'something snapped in him' --President Biden on Monday railed against President Trump after his conviction to donors at a fundraiser, arguing that “something snapped” after he lost the 2020 election.“Here is what is becoming clearer and clearer every day. The threat that Trump poses would be greater in a second term than it was in his first term. This isn’t the same Trump who got elected in 2016. He’s worse,” Biden said, according to prepared remarks.“Something snapped in him when he lost in 2020. He can’t accept he lost, and it is literally driving him crazy,” he added. “Now he’s running again. And he’s not only obsessed with losing in 2020, he is clearly unhinged.”Biden called Trump a “convicted felon,” which his campaign has done several times since the conviction, but it marks the first time the president has.“For the first time in American history a former president that is a convicted felon is now seeking the office of the presidency,” Biden said. “But as disturbing as that is, more damaging is the all-out assault Donald Trump is making on the American system of justice.”The president’s remarks came during a fundraiser with wealthy donors in Greenwich, Conn., and follows comments on the conviction on Friday, during which he said its “irresponsible” for Trump to say the trial was rigged.Biden on Monday told donors that he thinks Trump is running to keep his freedom.“Throughout this campaign Trump has made it clear he is running to exact for revenge,” the president said. “Now after his criminal convictions it’s clear he’s worried about preserving his freedoms.”Additionally, the president outlined recent comments from Trump, including that he would be a dictator on day one of a potential second term and that if he doesn’t get elected it will be a “blood bath.”A jury found Trump guilty Thursday on all counts of falsifying business records to conceal alleged affairs during his 2016 campaign. Trump has since called the trial “rigged,” and he has vowed to appeal the case.The president issued a short statement Thursday evening on the social platform X, calling for donations to the 2024 race and saying, “There’s only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box.”His campaign called Trump a convicted felon in its first statement after the verdict and has seized on the verdict to raise money for the 2024 race.
Michael Cohen says his family was doxxed following Donald Trump conviction -Michael Cohen, a key witness in former President Trump’s hush money trial, said his family was doxxed after Trump was convicted of all 34 felony counts in the case.Cohen, a former fixer for Trump, sought in his trial testimony to tie his former boss to documents at the heart of the case — in which prosecutors argued the then-2016 presidential nominee falsified business records related to reimbursements made to Cohen, who paid porn actor Stormy Daniels to stay quiet about an alleged 2006 affair with Trump.Following Thursday’s historic conviction, phone numbers and addresses for Cohen’s wife and children were posted Monday on a site that has been used to target other figures involved in Trump’s sprawling legal battles, said Advance Democracy, a nonprofit research group,according to NBC News.In a statement to The Hill, Cohen said it’s sad that the doxxing occurred.“What sad times we are living through when people resort to this type of doxxing stupidity to redress their grievances,” Cohen’s statement said.Judge Juan Merchan, the New York judge overseeing the hush money case, ordered in March for the identities of the jury to be kept secret because there was a likelihood of bribery, jury tampering or physical injury and harassment.Trump himself was barred from talking about the jury, court staff and prosecutors under a gag order meant to protect them from harassment and intimidation. NBC News reported that Trump supporters tried to dox jurors last week after the conviction.
Plurality Of Americans Believe Trump Trial Was Politically Motivated; New Poll Finds -- A new poll shows that a sizable plurality of the American people believe that the New York trial of former President Donald Trump was a politically-motivated show trial. As the Daily Caller reports, the ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that 47% of Americans believe the trial was indeed a political hit job, while 38% say that the trial was legitimate and fair.On the question of the “guilty” verdict, 50% of respondents believe the verdict was correct; by contrast, just 27% believe the verdict was wrong, while the remaining 23% said they “don’t know” what to believe with regards to the verdict.Among those who claimed to have followed the case closely, 55% say the verdict was correct while 35% say it was incorrect; another 8% said they “don’t know.” After the verdict was announced, 49% of respondents said that Trump should end his campaign for re-election.Among partisan lines, just 16% of Republicans said Trump should drop out while 75% want him to continue his candidacy. Among Democrats, 79% want Trump to drop out now, while 52% of independents say the same thing.The same poll also showed that the trial and its outcome have had virtually no effect on Trump’s approval ratings, and may have even led to a slight increase. While the former president had a 29% favorability in March, his favorability currently sits at 31%. Biden’s favorability is at 32%, a slight decrease from 33% in March. The poll featured a sample size of 781 American adults, and was conducted from May 31st to June 1st. The margin of error is 3.7%.
Trump verdict furor could lead to violence after election, Democrats fear -- Senate Democrats fear former President Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges could result in another spasm of violence after the 2024 election if Trump continues to decry what he calls the “weaponization” of the criminal justice system and then loses to President Biden in November. They’re voicing these fears amid growing anxiety that Trump’s criminal sentencing on July 11 in the hush money trial will further roil the election landscape. Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to an adult film star he allegedly had an affair with. Trump has repeatedly cast doubt about the fairness of the election, and Democratic lawmakers who followed his trial in New York worry that Trump will use whatever sentence is handed down to further inflame his loyal supporters. “It is unclear if we were to lose the election in November whether he would peacefully tell his supporters, ‘Well, it was a great battle, but we just couldn’t pull it off,’” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.). “If you want to worry about hypotheticals.” “He’s not making the kinds of overtures to his constituencies that suggest he’s going to go gently into that good night,” he said. Hickenlooper said he assumes Trump will be able to delay the implementation of any sentence while he appeals the conviction to higher courts over the next several months. A Democratic senator who requested anonymity to comment about the jitters of fellow senators said political violence now looks inevitable. The lawmaker said Democrats fear Trump will incite his supporters to unrest regardless of whether he receives probation or a prison sentence. “For the long-term good of the country, he needs to be treated like anybody else and then we’ll deal with it because we’ll get his violence no matter what,” the senator said, noting that Trump supporters have already tried to “dox” jurors. “We’re going to have to deal with the violence, sooner or later,” the senator predicted.
Merrick Garland on anger at DOJ over Donald Trump verdict: 'Conspiracy theory' -- Attorney General Merrick Garland accused Republicans of spreading conspiracy theories by suggesting the Justice Department was involved in former President Trump’s conviction by a New York jury. The comment from Garland came during a hearing before the House Judiciary Committee, as he was listing a “long line of attacks” on the Justice Department, including by members of Congress who have threatened to withhold federal funding over the verdict. “It comes alongside false claims that a jury verdict in a state trial, brought by a local district attorney, was somehow controlled by the Justice Department. That conspiracy theory is an attack on the judicial process itself,” Garland said. While Republicans in Congress have complained Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) brought charges against Trump for political purposes, the former president was found guilty by the 12 jurors on every single one of the 34 counts at play in the case. The jurors were agreed to by both prosecutors and Trump’s attorneys. Many lawmakers echoed Trump in attacking the justice system at large in the wake of the verdict. In addition to criticizing the Justice Department, some have also sought to pin blame on President Biden, despite state prosecutors’ complete independence from the White House or Justice Department in making charging decisions. Some have similarly threatened to withhold funding from the Justice Department and have said the government should block funding from state prosecutors. Such offices usually only receive federal funding through grant programs. The attacks on the justice system have earned condemnation from a handful of Republicans. “It’s dangerous to question the integrity of our entire legal system,” John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, said last week before the verdict had been announced, adding that U.S. enemies rejoice when Americans question their own institutions. The tough language from Garland comes amid a slew of accusations from Republicans against the department, including a baseless claim from Trump that the Justice Department gave law enforcement the green light to assassinate him during a search for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.
Garland: Policy Trump invoked in assassination claim also used in Biden search --Attorney General Merrick Garland on Tuesday pushed back on claims from former President Trump that the FBI had a green light to assassinate him, noting the language the former president highlighted was also included in the search warrant for President Biden’s home.The use of force policy that has been blasted by Trump as permission to “take me out” is something Garland said is “routinely part of the package for search warrants.”The statement Trump has pointed to allows deadly force “only when necessary,” such as when someone “poses an imminent danger of death or serious physical injury to the officer or to another person.” “The document that’s being discussed is our standard use of force protocol, which is a limitation of the use of force, which is routinely part of the package for search warrants and was part of the package for the search of President Biden’s home as well,” during his classified documents probe, Garland said.Trump nonetheless fundraised off of the use of force policy, claiming at various turns that both the Justice Department and even President Biden “was authorized to shoot” him.Addressing the claim directly, Garland said the “allegation is not true.” During his opening remarks, Garland also took a veiled jab at Trump’s claims, saying “baseless and extremely dangerous falsehoods are being spread about the FBI’s law enforcement operations.”
Donald Trump urges Supreme Court to act before his sentencing - Former President Trump on Sunday called on the Supreme Court to act ahead of his July sentencing after he was found guilty on 34 felony counts in his New York City hush money trial last week. Trump, in a post on Truth Social, complained that his sentencing in the New York case is scheduled four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the GOP is set to formally nominate him for president. The former president also used the post to attack Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D), who brought the charges against him, and Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw the trial, and argued it was unfair those two “will make a decision which will determine the future of our Nation.” “The United States Supreme Court MUST DECIDE!” Trump posted. Trump last week became the first former U.S. president to become a convicted felon after a jury of 12 New Yorkers found him guilty on all counts of falsifying business records to conceal alleged affairs during his 2016 campaign. He could face jail time, though first-time offenders on charges like Trump’s are rarely incarcerated. Bragg declined to say whether prosecutors will seek jail time for the former president, insisting prosecutors would speak through their court filings in coming weeks. Trump is scheduled to be sentenced July 11. He has said he will appeal the guilty verdict, which would go to a higher New York court. The U.S. Supreme Court is already weighing a separate case in which the former president has argued he should be immune from prosecution over his actions after the 2020 election, when he tried to subvert the results. If the conservative-majority court agrees with Trump on that case, many of his other pending criminal indictments could unwind. Even if the court does not go that far, its decision could delay actions in several of Trump’s cases beyond the November election.
Trump campaign raises $141M in May, boosted by hush money guilty verdict -- The Trump campaign announced Monday it raised $141 million in May alongside the Republican National Committee (RNC), a staggering total buoyed in part by a surge in donations after the former president was found guilty on 34 felony counts in New York.The campaign and RNC received more than 2 million donations for the month, and 25 percent of those who gave were first-time donors.On top of the $141 million haul for the campaign, other organizations supporting Trump brought in roughly $150 million, Trump officials said.“We are moved by the outpouring of support for President Donald J. Trump,” Trump campaign senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in a statement.“President Trump raised $141 million this month because Americans remember the roaring economy, secure border, and peace through strength at home and abroad under Donald J. Trump, and we will return to prosperity and success when he is re-elected in November,” the two added.More one-third of Trump’s fundraising total for May — $53 million — came via online donations in the 24 hours after a jury found him guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records during his 2016 campaign to conceal alleged affairs.The massive total is likely to close the cash gap between the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign, which has yet to report its May fundraising numbers.President Biden’s campaign raised $51 million in April and had $192 million on hand. Trump’s campaign outraised Biden’s in April, but it still was millions of dollars behind in terms of cash on hand. The Biden campaign had its best fundraising hours to date following Trump’s guilty verdict, a source familiar with the matter said.
Vulnerable Democrats steer away from focusing on Trump convictions - Vulnerable Democrats are steering away from talking about former President Trump’s bombshell conviction last week on 34 felony charges as they fear political backlash in their purple states and districts. Those front-line Democrats — representing battleground districts and states where trust in the criminal justice system is low and Trump’s legal woes have only invigorated his base support — are warning that a focus on the guilty verdicts in New York could backfire on them politically. “I try to stay away from anything that isn’t a uniting topic,” Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska), a front-line Democrat, said when asked if she is concerned that talking about the conviction could turn off some voters. The responses on lawmakers’ first day back in the Capitol after jury found Trump guilty highlight both Trump’s extraordinary faculty for surviving scandal and the delicate dance Democrats are attempting in their approach to his felony convictions, particularly on the thorny question of whether a major party presidential nominee should serve time in prison. On one hand, the Democratic response is a no-brainer. They’ve been unified throughout the trial in saying they trust the justice system, would respect the outcome and that no one is above the law — not even a former president. Now that Trump has been convicted, they’re deferring to the justice system once more. “That’s for somebody else to decide,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said when asked if Trump should go to jail. Sen. Bob Casey (R-Pa.) echoed his battleground state colleague’s sentiment. “That’s up to the judge,” Casey said. “I don’t have any view on that.” On the other hand, the guilty verdicts present a dilemma for Democrats, who now must decide whether to highlight the felonies as a focus of their campaign message, or pivot away from the case to focus on other issues, like the economy, that affect voters more directly. “If anyone running in a competitive state right now wants to talk about Trump, they don’t want to talk about a New York courtroom,” one Democratic operative working in a battleground state said. “They want to talk about how another Trump presidency would impact their lives.” In some of the states, campaigns are battling over the slimmest segments of voters, many of whom are not necessarily tuned into politics. “If I’m running in a battleground state, I want to say Trump will repeal the Affordable Care Act and kick you off your health insurance, and the Democrat won’t do that,” the party operative continued. “Anybody locked into the democracy fight already knows who they’re voting for. … For a battleground state [candidate] to talk about it, it’s a waste of time.” “It’s the friend who talks the least and cares the least about politics,” the operative continued. “That’s the voter we’re all going after … and they don’t care about this. They care about rent, food and access to healthcare.”
Stormy Daniels says former President Donald Trump should be jailed - Former porn actor Stormy Daniels said she thinks former President Trump should be jailed and required to complete community service following his conviction in the hush money criminal trial in New York.In her first interview since the conviction, Daniels spoke to the Sunday Mirror about Trump’s sentencing and about the fear she felt testifying before the jury in the trial.“I think he should be sentenced to jail and some community service — working for the less fortunate or being the volunteer punching bag at a women’s shelter,” Daniels told the United Kingdom-based news outlet.Daniels added that she was not sure what exactly Trump’s sentence should be but that it’s important for the punishment to be catered toward Trump so he could learn effectively from it.“I don’t know what the sentencing could be or what Trump will even understand,” she said. “It’s like when you have a child, and sometimes you take the electronics away from them, but if your child is very artistic, they don’t care. They’ll just go color their coloring books. And then you have another child that, they don’t want to go outside — you got to ground them or take away electronics or don’t let them have dessert.”“You have to find the punishment that not just matches the crime, but is fair and just, and that impacts that particular person. Who knows what that is with Trump,” she added.
CNN host, Dr. Phil spar over Trump trial: ‘I don’t understand how you can say that’ -- CNN’s Abby Phillip and “Dr. Phil” McGraw disagreed over former President Trump’s hush money trial on air Thursday evening, with the host eventually saying she doesn’t understand how he came to his opinion. McGraw joined Phillip shortly after sitting for an interview with Trump where they discussed the specifics of the former president’s trial, just a week after the guilty verdict was handed down. “You’re clearly sympathetic to Trump, but you believe that he should drop this talk of revenge. Did he commit to not pursuing that if he was elected president?” Phillip asked about their interview. McGraw answered by saying he would be sympathetic to President Biden, too, if he was the one in that situation. “Well, first of all, I’m sympathetic to what Trump has gone through in this particular trial, because I think it was not proper due process for him,” McGraw responded. “I would say the same thing if was Biden or anyone else in that process. So, I want to be clear.” Phillip then pressed the famous talk show therapist, asking why he thought Trump didn’t get due process in the criminal case that resulted in his historic conviction. “I mean, the proceedings — we have reporters in there; I was in there for a lot of it. There was a judge and he adjudicated a lot of these questions,” Phillip said. “Why do you think he wasn’t given a fair process?” “Well, I think it’s a number of things. I think they’re, from a jury standpoint. And again, let me be clear: I’m not a lawyer. I look at it in terms of what the jury was given to solve this puzzle,” he said. “And I think they heard some things that were very prejudicial that had nothing to do with solving the problem of the case at hand.” McGraw continued, hinting that Trump’s former fixer, Michael Cohen, testifying in the case as “someone that is considered to be an accomplice” is not appropriate.
Trump hush money judge flags Facebook user claiming early knowledge of verdict - The judge overseeing former President Trump’s hush money criminal case informed the parties Friday that a person on Facebook claimed to have advance knowledge of the verdict in the case. Judge Juan Merchan wrote to Trump’s attorneys and the Manhattan district attorney’s office that on May 29 — the day 12 New Yorkers began deliberating Trump’s case and a day before he was convicted — a Facebook user left the comment on the New York State Unified Court System’s page. “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted,” the comment read, along with a celebrating emoji. “Thank you folks for all your hard work!!!!” It’s unclear whether the user was being facetious or speaking truthfully about their relation to one of Trump’s jurors, but on their personal page, they described themself as a “professional s‑‑‑ poster” — a term that generally refers to trolling on the internet. The Hill identified a second comment by the Facebook user, made on May 29, that celebrated “hard (work) against the MAGA crazies” and again suggested that the user’s cousin was a juror and planned to convict. A commenter in that exchange wrote that, if true, the Facebook user had implicated their cousin in a crime, to which the user replied: “Now we are married,” in apparent reference to their supposed cousin.
Georgia appeals court may hear arguments on Fani Willis' role in Donald Trump case in October - A Georgia appeals court could hear arguments this October for former President Trump’s efforts to have Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the election interference case she brought against the former president. The arguments are tentatively slated for Oct. 4, should an oral argument be “requested and granted,” according to a notice from the Court of Appeals of Georgia obtained by The Hill. The October date makes it all the more likely the election interference case will not make it to trial before the November election, in which Trump is the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee. “We look forward to presenting argument before Judges Brown, Markle, and Land on why this case should be dismissed and Fulton County DA Willis should be disqualified for the trial court’s acknowledged ‘odor of mendacity’ misconduct in violation of the Georgia Rules of Professional Conduct,” Trump’s lawyer Steven Sadow said in a statement to The Hill. Trump and eight other defendants have filed appeals to reverse a lower court ruling that allowed Willis the choice to stay on the case if special prosecutor Nathan Wade stepped down, given the two’s once-romantic relationship. Judge Scott McAfee ruled in April that the relationship between Willis and Wade constituted an appearance of conflict of interest in Willis’s racketeering case against Trump, but Willis could remain on the case if Wade departed. The motion to disqualify Willis from the case alleged Wade’s relationship with the district attorney allowed him to financially benefit from his employment. The appeal will be decided by a three-judge panel, and upon their decision, the losing side could request the Georgia Supreme Court consider an appeal.
Georgia Appeals Court Halts Trump Election Interference Case - Yves here. It is a sign of how deeply partisan news reporting has become, above all in matters Trump, that I feel compelled to point a few things out, as unpopular as that might be in some circles.First, even Trump has due process rights. Fights over procedure, which can include getting seemingly strained arguments heard, are part and parcel for litigation. If you want a graduate course in motions pleading, have a look at our many posts on the Kentucky Retirement Systems case. It was filed year-end 2017 and still has not gotten to discovery (even though the trial court judge has recently cleared what looked like the last big hurdle, the defendants are trying to make an interlocutory appeal). Even in the tiny litigations I have sadly been party to, motions that lead to delay, whether delay is the intended effect or an unwanted by-product, are pervasive and thus are hard to see as unusual or irregular.Second, the reason for the upset is that the appeals court has set a hearing date on the Trump action versus the continued role of Fani Willis as Fulton County prosecutor in his case for October. If the appeals court looked to be deliberately giving Trump a slot late relative to its current docketing, that would be legitimate grounds for considerable criticism. However, there is no indication in the account below that the court has set the hearing later than one would expect in the normal course of events.And why the uproar? That this outcome has thrown a wrench in the political timing, of getting the case heard sooner. That is presumably for the two political motives we saw in action in the New York criminal case that Trump just lost: to keep his butt in a seat in court so he could not campaign, and hopefully to secure a victory that would dim his re-election chances.Has no one heard the saying, “The wheels of justice grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly fine”? Did they miss the “slowly” part?Third, I am not enthusiastic about defenses of Willis. She failed to make the required disclosures of the gifts from her boyfriend. In the better-run state of California, at CalPERS alone, failure to make those disclosures is believed to have played a role in the recent departure of Chief Investment Officer Nichole Musicco and scandal for board member Theresa Taylor (who sadly stared it down despite having a background that would make it seem vanishingly unlikely that her oversight was an accident). Even though the disclosure lapse was not the basis for Trump action1, it is serious misconduct. And as for allegations of unseemly behavior, since when does the White House get involved in state prosecutions? From Fox News:….embedded in the filing [by a Trump-co-defendant] are invoices for the Law Offices of Nathan J. Wade [Willis’ former co-counsel on the case]. One invoice calls attention to “Fulton County District Attorney’s Office.”Wade billed the county for a May 23, 2022, event described as “Travel to Athens; Conf with White House Counsel.” Wade charged $2,000 for eight hours at $250 an hour.Several months later, Wade billed for “Interview with DC/White House” on Nov. 18, 2022. Wade again charged $2,000 for eight hours at $250 an hour, according to the documents.There is no ‘splaining this away. Either Wade defrauded Fulton County by billing for meetings that never took place, or White House lawyers were meaningfully assisting in this case.It is deeply saddening to see that coverage of these Trump cases is so wildly partisan, and attempts to counter that are too often demonized on tribal grounds.
Original publication at Common Dreams as Georgia Appeals Court Halts Trump Election Interference Case- The Georgia Court of Appeals on Wednesday paused proceedings in the election interference case against former U.S. President Donald Trump and other defendants until an appellate panel determines whether the prosecuting district attorney should be disqualified for an alleged conflict of interest.In a one-page ruling, the court stayed the trial pending the resolution of an appeal by Trump and some of his co-defendants asserting that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a Democrat, should be removed because of her romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, whom she appointed special prosecutor for the case.Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled in March that Willis could remain on the case if Wade resigned, which he did. Willis maintains there was nothing improper about their relationship.The appellate court’s stay means that McAfee will have to delay a decision on a motion filed by Trump’s legal team arguing he should have executive immunity from prosecution. The right-wing U.S. Supreme Court—three of whose members were appointed by Trump—is expected to rule on the immunity issue in the coming weeks. The case revolves around Trump’s attempt to overturn President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia. Trump made a January 2, 2021 phone call in which he pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, to “find 11,780 votes” in his favor, prompting Willis’ investigation.Willis charged Trump with 13 criminal counts for alleged violations of Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act related to his participation in a sprawling “criminal enterprise” aimed at overturning the election. A total of 19 people were initially charged; four co-defendants have pleaded guilty and have received punishments including fines, probation, and having to publicly apologize. They also agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.According to The Hill:Oral arguments are tentatively scheduled for October, meaning the case likely will not proceed to trial until after the presidential election, where Trump is the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee and is hoping to retake the White House and grind his cases to a halt. A trial date had not yet been selected.The Georgia case is one of three federal and state criminal proceedings against Trump related to efforts to subvert the 2020 election and alleged mishandling of classified documents. Last month, Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments during the 2016 campaign to cover up alleged affairs.Reacting to the stay, liberal lawyer and comedian Dean Obeidallah said on social media that “no one should be surprised that the GOP Supreme Court, Trump-owned Judge Aileen Cannon, or the GOP Georgia Court of Appeals are helping Trump.” “They are all Republicans and they are protecting their presidential nominee,” he added. “This is what judicial corruption looks like!”
The Supreme Court’s slow-walk on Trump immunity is playing with fire -- The Supreme Court likes to claim it ignores politics. But politics isn’t going to ignore the Supreme Court. Now that Donald Trump’s New York hush money trial is over, the big question is whether the former president will face trial in federal court before the November election. The case arising from his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election was set to go to trial back in March;Trump managed to avoid that trial date by claiming that presidents have absolute immunity from prosecution, a claim that is now before the Supreme Court.Whether Trump will once again find himself sitting in a courtroom before voters make it to the polls depends on how and when the court issues its decision. At oral argument in April, it became pretty clear that there was no market for Trump’s sweeping “if-the-president-does-it-then-it’s-legal” view of presidential immunity for criminal acts. But there were takers for two other theories that would limit future prosecutions of ex-presidents. The first had to do with whether Congress can use criminal law to regulate certain “core powers” of the presidency, such as the pardon power and the recognition of foreign governments. The idea is that there may be some presidential actions that Congress simply cannot criminalize. For example, Congress probably could not pass a law — at least, not a constitutional one — making it illegal to pardon drug offenders.The other issue was whether presidents could ever be immunized for their private acts as, opposed to official ones. The consensus on the court was clearly “No.” So whatever immunity a president might have for doing something like ordering a drone strike in Syria, there is no immunity things that don’t pertain to presidential responsibilities — for example, cheating on your taxes while you’re president.So far, so good. But there is a sting in the tail of this argument. Normally, the Supreme Court likes to issue broad rules and let the district courts sort out the sometimes-messy business of applying those rules to a specific set of facts. So you can imagine a world where the Supreme Court says something like, “The exercise of certain presidential powers, which we list here, are immune from prosecution. Acts undertaken by a president in his or her private capacity are never immune from criminal prosecution. We remand to the district court to determine whether the acts at issue here were official acts and, if so, whether those acts implicate the immunized powers we have described and are, therefore, exempt from criminal prosecution.” In this scenario, the district court would get the case back and determine that the acts at issue are subject to criminal prosecution. (No one, not even Trump’s lawyers, think most of the things he is being charged with were official acts or implicate any core presidential responsibilities.) Trump would then appeal that decision, again putting the trial on hold, and likely lose in the appellate court. He would then appeal that loss to the Supreme Court again, where he would again lose, probably because the justices would decline to take the case at all.This process will take several months, at the very least, meaning there will be no trial until sometime in 2025. This is Trump’s dream scenario. His goal all along has been to do delay this trial until after the election when, if he is elected president, he can make the case against himself disappear.Of course, every member of the Supreme Court is aware of this. They are also aware that the worst possible scenario for the court’s prestige and moral authority would be to delay Trump’s trial on charges that he engaged in a criminal conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election and install himself as president until after he had another shot at getting himself elected. Resolving those charges once and for all, so that voters know how much weight to give them, is the opposite of election interference.There is no ivory tower tall enough to avoid the political implications of the court’s decision. Kicking the can down the road is just as political as making a clear decision now. In the words of a certain philosopher, “If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.”
X asks Supreme Court to review process that gave Jack Smith access to Donald Trump Twitter files --Social media platform X filed a writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court on Tuesday, requesting the court hear a challenge to the process by which the Department of Justice accessed former President Trump’s records on the platform.The writ challenges a federal court’s order last year forcing the platform to hand over documents about Trump’s account to special counsel Jack Smith without Trump’s knowledge or giving him a chance to appeal the order.If the company is successful in its challenge, the change could radically alter how search warrants are served to data holders.X claims that some of Trump’s data could have been covered by executive privilege and that other users, from journalists to doctors, could have similarly pressing reasons to keep their data private.X said Smith’s order was an “unprecedented end-run around executive privilege,” an instance that could impact users in the future. It adds that the current process also “gags” the company’s First Amendment rights by preventing the company from discussing the searches with users. Smith’s prosecution team obtained Trump’s direct messages, message drafts and deleted posts, among other data. Smith charged Trump with election fraud last year after a months-long investigation.Federal Judge Beryl Howell upheld Smith’s order last year and forced X to produce the data, later fining the company $350,000 for delaying the delivery. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals later agreed with her decision.
Jury selected in Hunter Biden’s gun trial: What to know --Twelve jurors and four alternates were selected in the first of what could be two federal criminal trials involving Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden, according to The Associated Press. The panel of Delaware residents was selected after just one day, where prospective jurors were questioned over their views on gun rights, political prosecutions and whether the defendant’s father could influence their ability to be fair and impartial. Hunter Biden will stand trial on federal gun charges involving his purchase of a firearm in 2018. Federal prosecutors contend the president’s son made false statements regarding his use of illegal drugs when obtaining the gun and then unlawfully possessed it for 11 days. He has pleaded not guilty, and Monday kicked off the first-ever criminal trial of a sitting U.S. president’s child. Attorneys for Hunter Biden and the Justice Department could give their opening statements as soon as Tuesday, where both sides will present jurors with their theory of the case. Prosecutors are expected to claim that Hunter Biden lied when he checked “no” on a federal gun purchase form questioning whether he was “an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance.” But Hunter Biden’s attorneys have suggested that the president’s son may have thought he was telling the truth, contending that he did not view himself as a drug addict when filling out the form. “The issue here is Mr. Biden’s understanding of the question, which asks in the present tense if he ‘is’ a user or addict,” his attorney, Abbe Lowell, wrote in court filings. “The terms ‘user’ or ‘addict’ are not defined on the form and were not explained to him. “Someone, like Mr. Biden who had just completed an 11-day rehabilitation program and lived with a sober companion after that, could surely believe he was not a present tense user or addict,” he continued. The trial is expected to last about two weeks.
Hunter Biden gun charges trial: Jill Biden attends first day --First lady Jill Biden arrived Monday morning at a Delaware courthouse where her son, Hunter Biden, is set to go on trial on federal gun charges. President Biden and the first lady spent Sunday night in Wilmington, where Hunter Biden’s trial is taking place. The Bidens have a residence in Wilmington and frequently travel there on the weekends. Hunter Biden was spotted at the White House last Friday and traveled with the family to Delaware ahead of his trial. The president was not expected to attend, as he and the White House have tried to maintain a distance from the legal proceedings involving his son. But the president has previously said he’s proud of Hunter for dealing with his drug addiction issues and said Hunter did nothing wrong. Monday is also Jill Biden’s 73rd birthday. In addition to the first lady, Hunter’s sister, Ashley Biden, was spotted entering the courthouse in Wilmington. Hunter Biden, 54, is facing charges for lying on a federal form when he bought a gun in 2018. He wrote on the form that he was not a drug user, despite being addicted to cocaine at the time. He has been open about his addiction, detailing his struggles in his 2021 memoir. Republicans have repeatedly used Hunter Biden as a target for political attacks, attempting to tie his business dealings directly to President Biden to paint the entire family as corrupt. But those efforts have failed to turn up substantive evidence of wrongdoing, derailing an impeachment inquiry in the House over the past year. The Biden trial is set to begin just days after a jury in New York City found former President Trump guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal alleged affairs during his 2016 campaign. Democrats have pointed to the prosecution of Hunter Biden to rebut claims from Trump and his allies that the Justice Department is being weaponized against Republicans.
Prosecution Rests in Hunter Biden Gun Trial -- The prosecution rested on Friday in Hunter Biden’s gun trial with the defense now scheduled to bring witnesses to the stand. The trial will likely conclude next week.Witnesses who took the stand include:
- FBI agent Erika Jensen
- Kathleen Buhle, Hunter’s ex wife
- Zoe Kestan, Hunter’s ex girlfriend
- Gordon Cleveland, a gun store clerk
- Hallie Biden, Hunter’s ex and widow of brother
- Joshua Marley, a police officer
- Millard Greer, a former Delaware state trooper
- Edward Banner, the 80-year-old man who found Hunter’s gun
- FBI chemist Jason Brewer
- DEA drug expert Jason Brewer
The prosecution presented significant evidence against Hunter, whose legal defense could be hoping for jury nullification, experts warned this week.Hunter is charged with one count of false statement in the purchase of a firearm, one count of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance, and one count of false statement related to information required to be kept by a federal firearms licensed dealer.Hunter used crack when he purchased the firearm, according to a wide variety of photos from the time on his abandoned laptop, and the gun was found discarded in a public trash can next to a school. The Secret Service allegedly intervened in the investigation of that incident.
Biden Says He Has Ruled Out a Pardon for Son --President Joe Biden said Thursday on ABC’s “World News Tonight” that he would not pardon his son Hunter if he is found guilty in his federal cases during an interview in Normandy, France, where the president is commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day. The president’s only surviving son, Hunter, is on trial in Delaware on three felony charges for false statements to obtain a firearm in 2018 while allegedly addicted to drugs, and he is also scheduled to stand trial on federal tax charges in September in California. Anchor David Muir asked, “As we sit here in Normandy, your son Hunter is on trial. I know that you can not speak about an ongoing federal prosecution, but let me ask yo, will you accept the juries outcome no matter what it is?” Biden said, “Yes.” Muir asked, “Have you ruled out a pardon for your son?” Biden said, “Yes.”
Hunter Biden's Gun Trial Judge Recently Gave 1-Year Sentence in Similar Case -Hunter Biden’s gun trial judge, Maryellen Noreika, recently delivered a one-year sentence to a defendant in a similar gun case.The case could be a window into how Noreika might sentence Hunter if a jury finds him guilty of gun violations.Hunter is charged with one count of false statement in the purchase of a firearm, one count of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance, and one count of false statement related to information required to be kept by a federal firearms licensed dealer.Hunter used crack when he purchased the firearm, according to a wide variety of photos from the time on his abandoned laptop, and the gun was found discarded in a public trash can next to a school. The Secret Service allegedly intervened in the investigation of that incident.Noreika sentenced Zhi Dong for lying on government forms about his address when he bought guns at Delaware gun stores on May 2, 2024.Dong, who pleaded guilty, admitted to living in Maryland while claiming to live in Delaware.Dong apparently drove the purchased guns to California to a gun store, which was “indicative of trafficking firearms, prosecutors wrote in a sentencing memo.The defense asked for a six-month sentence, but Noreika gave Dong one year.“When you see a judge who is willing to basically double the sentencing recommendation of the prosecution, then that’s a little bit concerning, obviously, for any defense attorney,” Peter Tilem, told Politico, a defense lawyer who handled gun cases.
Legal Experts: Hunter Biden Could Be Hoping for 'Jury Nullification' -- Hunter Biden’s legal defense could be hoping for jury nullification, legal experts warned. Jury nullification occurs when a defendant is proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt but jurors disregard their oath to find the defendant not guilty. Hunter is charged with one count of false statement in the purchase of a firearm, one count of possession of a firearm by a person who is an unlawful user of or addicted to a controlled substance, and one count of false statement related to information required to be kept by a federal firearms licensed dealer.Hunter used crack when he purchased the firearm, according to a wide variety of photos from the time on his abandoned laptop, and the gun was found discarded in a public trash can next to a school. The Secret Service allegedly intervened in the investigation of that incident.While many legal experts say a jury should easily convict Hunter, constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley and Judge Jeanine Pirro said on Fox News that jury nullification is a real risk for the prosecution. Turley explained to the Hill:So why wouldn’t Hunter just plead guilty? Even without his earlier plea deal, a guilty plea could significantly reinforce a request to avoid jail time in the case. It would also avoid an embarrassing trial for himself and his father during a presidential election.While Hunter could always throw in the towel before the start of testimony, there is currently no discernible strategy beyond hoping that a pending case in the Supreme Court might undermine the indictment. There may also be another possible strategy in play: jury nullification.Pirro was also surprised Hunter did not plead guilty to forgo the trial, she told Fox News’s Martha MacCallum in reference to potential jury nullification. “They’re [defense] trying to overlook the fact that there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt here,” she said:They’re trying to get the jury to maybe nullify the verdict, which simply means a jury may believe that the case has been proven to their satisfaction to everyone beyond a reasonable doubt, but they’re going to cut him [Hunter] loose for any reason.
"He's Not The Same Person": Biden Allies Freak After WSJ Blasts "Slipping" Brain - The Biden administration is scrambling for damage control over the president's mental condition. Over the past month, the White House claimed executive privilege over an audio tape of Biden's classified documents interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur, the transcripts of which were altered to make Biden seem more competent.Next, TIME Magazine's Massimo Calabresi couldn't give a straight answer over Biden's serious cognitive decline exhibited during an interview.The TIME Magazine reporter who interviewed Biden *could not have been more vague* when asked how Biden seemed during their interview — as questions swirl around Biden's noticeable cognitive decline pic.twitter.com/sUBhTMc8vL Now, the White House and Biden allies are slamming a Tuesday report from the Wall Street Journal in which 45 people from both sides of the aisle told the outlet that Biden is, to put it mildly, two sandwiches short of a picnic.Front page of @WSJ confirming, as politely as possible, that Biden's apparent decline is real—and serious. pic.twitter.com/ENIB3dJwH3— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) June 5, 2024The Journal cites a January meeting behind closed doors during a critical discussion about Ukraine funding, Biden's soft-spoken nursing home demeanor led some participants to question his engagement, as he occasionally read from notes and paused. "You couldn’t be there and not feel uncomfortable," one attendee noted about the meeting's dynamics, adding "I'll just say that."In another example, Biden completely forgot the details of 'his' own policy on big energy projects during a one-on-one meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson.Others who attended said Biden’s demeanor and level of engagement fluctuated and he seemed lively and engaged at some points. When the topic moved to an immigration overhaul, Johnson, the House speaker, offered Biden a list of dozens of executive actions he could undo to improve border security. Biden, rather than responding to Johnson’s suggestions, chided him, according to people at the meeting, “I’ve forgotten more about immigration than you’ll ever know.” -WSJThen, during debt ceiling negotiations with House Republicans, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and others noted thatBiden's demeanor and command of the details varied significantly from day to day. On some days, Biden was described as relying heavily on notes and mumbling, which could suggest inconsistency in cognitive performance.“I used to meet with him when he was vice president. I’d go to his house,” McCarthy said in an interview. “He’s not the same person.” -WSJThe article also lays out public speaking errors, such as mixing up names of his Hispanic cabinet secretaries, mistakenly speaking about conversations with long-deceased leaders, and other factual errors. These instances contribute to the narrative of cognitive decline.In another section, the Journal reports that "The president moved so slowly around the Cabinet Room to greet the nearly two dozen congressional leaders that it took about 10 minutes for the meeting to begin, some people who attended recalled."
X, formerly known as Twitter, updates policy to formally allow porn The social media platform X has updated its policies to formally allow pornography on the site. “We believe that users should be able to create, distribute, and consume material related to sexual themes as long as it is consensually produced and distributed,” the platform said in a recent update. “Sexual expression, whether visual or written, can be a legitimate form of artistic expression,” it added. “We believe in the autonomy of adults to engage with and create content that reflects their own beliefs, desires, and experiences, including those related to sexuality.” The platform formerly known as Twitter has long permitted users to post and share such content. However, X’s safety team noted that the newly launched Adult Content and Violent Speech policies seek to “bring more clarity” about their rules and enforcement. “These policies replace our former Sensitive Media and Violent Speech policies — but what we enforce against hasn’t changed,” the safety team wrote in a post on X. Users are barred from sharing adult content in “highly visible places,” such as profile photos or banners, and are asked to update their media settings if regularly posting adult content in order to place their images and videos behind content warnings. X’s policies also apply to content generated with artificial intelligence, as well as photographic and animated content, it noted.
Celebrity meme coin promoter Sahil Arora banned from X amid scam allegations - Crypto Briefing - Sahil Arora, a celebrity memecoin promoter, has been banned from the social media platform X following accusations of orchestrating “pump and dump” schemes involving celebrity-themed memecoins.Several celebrities, including Caitlyn Jenner and Iggy Azalea, have called out Arora for his alleged involvement in these scams.According to the accusations, Arora acted as a middleman, launching tokens on behalf of celebrities, having them promote the tokens, and then dumping his own holdings to withdraw liquidity, causing the price to plummet. This is a common risk in the largely unregulated memecoin market.One such token, JENNER, reportedly rose to a market cap of $43 million within 24 hours of its launch but subsequently fell sharply. The token’s market cap has since dropped to roughly $5 million.Caitlyn Jenner took to X to accuse Arora of scamming her:FUCK SAHIL! He scammed us!BIG TIME!@Ryan_S_Gladwin https://t.co/flSWpT872g— Caitlyn Jenner (@Caitlyn_Jenner) May 28, 2024 It appears that Arora has a separate X account affiliated with Hype Strategy, an advertising and marketing agency based in Florida. In the said account, Arora claims that Jenner rugged the token.so she confirms I made $jenner and then she rugged.told ya https://t.co/ylWmjdUbnP— Sahil (@sahilbuilds) June 3, 2024American mumble rapper Rich the Kid also claimed on X that his account was “hacked” to promote a coin “by Sahil,” who then allegedly “made a pump and dump and dumped all the money to his account” prior to blocking the celebs he allegedly scammed.A separate incident shows that Arora allegedly posted fake screenshots that implied some degree of involvement with the launch of IGGY, a meme coin inspired by Australian rapper Iggy Azalea. The rapper later responded to the claims and launched her own token, MOTHER, on Solana.According to a report from The Block, the account responded to queries and released the following statement:“[T]hey hate what they can’t create, they try everyday to shut me down but nothing will really make me quit. this just powers me up more to do crazy and epic sh*t and i have a lot more big moves incoming to shake the space.”
Feds charge far-right media executive with money-laundering scheme - Bill Guan, a top executive of the far-right media company The Epoch Times, was arrested Sunday for his alleged involvement in a money-laundering scheme, federal prosecutors announced Monday.Weidong Guan, known as Bill Guan, who serves as the chief financial officer for The Epoch Times, is accused of participating in a transnational scheme to launder about $67 million in illicit funds for the benefit of himself and the media company, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.Guan, 61, was arrested Sunday morning and appeared before a judge Monday. He is charged with one count of conspiring to commit money laundering and two counts of bank fraud, per the indictment.The indictment does not specify the name of the referenced media company, only describing it as a “multinational media company headquartered in New York City.” Federal prosecutors noted the charges are not related to the company’s “newsgathering activities.”A spokesperson for The Epoch Times confirmed Guan is suspended from his post until the matter is resolved, noting he is “innocent until proven guilty.” The Hill reached out to the U.S. attorney’s office in lower Manhattan for further comment.Guan, from about 2020 through May 2024, allegedly managed the company’s “Make Money Online Team,” or MMO Team, located in a foreign office of the company, prosecutors said. The team is accused of using cryptocurrency under Guan’s direction to purchase tens of millions of dollars in money acquired through crimes, including fraudulently obtained unemployment benefits.Upon purchasing these crime proceeds, members of the MMO Team used stolen personal identification information to open accounts, cryptocurrency accounts and bank accounts to transfer the cash into the bank accounts of the media company and “related entities,” the indictment stated. Once in those accounts, the cash was allegedly laundered again through other accounts held by the entities, Guan’s personal bank and cryptocurrency.The Epoch Times was founded in 2000 by John Tang, who has ties to Falun Gong, a religious group that was persecuted in China. The newsletter was started in opposition of the Chinese Communist Party and is now known for its far-right conspiracy theories and support of former President Trump.The paper is part of the global Epoch Media Group, which distributes news in 36 regions and countries.Around the time the alleged scheme began, the “media company” reported an increased annual revenue over the previous year of about 410 percent, jumping from $15 million to about$62 million in 2020, prosecutors said.“When banks asked Guan about the increase in transactions entering the bank accounts of the Media Entities, Guan lied, including to two U.S.-based banks, and claimed that the increase in funds came from donations,” prosecutors wrote. “However, in 2022, Guan wrote a letter addressed to a congressional office falsely stating ‘donations’ constitute ‘an insignificant portion of the overall revenue’ of the Media Company.”NBC News reported similar findings last year that the paper grew its revenue by 685 percent in two years, to $122 million in 2021, citing the group’s tax records. The Epoch Times, as of last year, was also the country’s fourth-largest newspaper by subscriber count, NBC News added.
Crypto scammer wanted over fraud allegations in America wants jail time in Scotland's 'much nicer' prison system - A Scots scammer wanted in America over a £7 million online fraud allegation would prefer to serve his jail time in Scotland as it has a ‘much nicer prison system’, a court has heard.Robert Barr was locked up for 21 months at Airdrie Sheriff Court last week for hacking into the email accounts of a cryptocurrency trader in England.He committed the crime while on bail for the alleged US scam.The 27-year-old and an accomplice stole around £3,000 and were only stopped from getting another £33,000 when the victim employed security experts to prevent funds being transferred.After the hearing, Barr, of Biggar, Lanarkshire, appeared in court in Edinburghfor the latest chapter in his long-running fight against extradition to the US. But his lawyer, Fred Mackintosh, told last Wednesday’s Airdrie hearing that Barr suffers from attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, but added: ‘He accepts full responsibility. He was well aware of what he was doing.’The court was told Barr has been in custody for much of the past two years in connection with the extradition case.Mr Mackintosh added: ‘If extradited to America and convicted, he would receive a very long sentence.‘If he is jailed today he would probably want to serve his sentence in this country because it’s a much nicer prison system than that in America, but it’s not up to him.’He was arrested after the FBI named him as a suspect in a huge cryptocurrency fraud.It’s alleged Barr and associates stole £7 million in digital cash from New York-based financier Reggie Middleton.They allegedly used the victim’s phone number to access his email and other accounts before changing passwords and locating cryptocurrency addresses. A second, unnamed victim is said to have lost £485,000 from her accounts in a similar scam.
FBI warns of fake remote work ads used for cryptocurrency fraud -- Today, the FBI issued a warning about scammers using fake remote job ads to steal cryptocurrency from job seekers across the United States while posing as recruiters for legitimate companies.These work-from-home scams are designed to lure potential victims with easy-to-accomplish tasks like rating various businesses online or "optimizing" a service."The scammers pose as a legitimate business, such as a staffing or recruiting agency, and may contact victims via an unsolicited call or message," the FBI warned."Scammers design the fake job to have a confusing compensation structure that requires victims to make cryptocurrency payments in order to earn more money or 'unlock' work, and the payments go directly to the scammer."To make their fraudulent schemes more persuasive, the scammers will also ask victims to use a fake portal showing how much money they've earned, although they can't cash out any funds.The FBI says that red flags that should warn those targeted by these scams they're dealing with fraudsters coming for their money include being asked to make cryptocurrency payments to the employer as part of a work task, job descriptions involving simple tasks, and not being asked to provide references from previous jobs during the hiring process.To defend against such scam attempts, the FBI advises unemployed Americans looking for a job to:
- Be cautious of unsolicited job offer messages and avoid clicking on links, downloading files, or opening attachments in these messages.
- Never send money to an alleged employer.
- Do not pay for services that claim to be able to recover any lost cryptocurrency funds.
- Do not send financial or personally identifiable information to people making unsolicited job offers.
The FBI asked victims to report if they've been targeted by fraudulent or suspicious activities to the FBIInternet Crime Complaint Center(IC3) and provide transaction details associated with the scam, including cryptocurrency addresses, the amount and type of cryptocurrency, the date and time, and the transaction ID (hash).
Crypto Scam: NY Attorney General Sues 2 Firms For $1B Fraud --In a significant crackdown on crypto scams, New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit against two firms for orchestrating a billion-dollar pyramid scheme. According to the latest filing, the alleged firms and their promoters have leveraged the scheme defrauding more than 11,000 New York residents, primarily targeting the Haitian community. New York’s Attorney General Letitia James has launched a lawsuit against two firms, AWS Mining and NovaTech, accusing them of running a large-scale crypto scam. According to the lawsuit, the firms and their promoters, including Cynthia and Eddy Petion, swindled over $1 billion from the market participants, primarily of Haitian descent. Notably, one of the fraudulent operations promised high returns through supposed crypto mining and trading activities. AWS Mining, the first scheme, guaranteed a 200% return on investments but collapsed in April 2019.Following this, NovaTech emerged, another firm sued in a crypto scam, claiming to be a crypto and foreign exchange trading platform. Investors deposited more than $1 billion in cryptocurrency into NovaTech from August 2019 to April 2023. However, a mere $26 million was actually traded on the platform, according to the filing.Meanwhile, the Attorney General’s complaint describes both firms as pyramid schemes. They recruited investors with promises of guaranteed returns, and new recruits’ money was used to pay earlier investors. NovaTech also operated as a Ponzi scheme, where supposed trading profits were merely redistributed from other investors’ funds.In these crypto scam developments, the firms have preyed on vulnerable communities, using affinity fraud to exploit cultural and linguistic ties. Promoters targeted Haitian investors by marketing in Creole and presenting the schemes as opportunities for financial freedom. Notably, this strategy involved leveraging the community’s trust and religious faith to lure in more victims.
Crypto and Binary Options Scam: Dozens of Israelis Extradited to Germany -- Dozens of Israelis were extradited to Germany in connection with crypto and binary options scams that siphoned about 1 billion euros from victims over five years, according to two local Israeli news outlets, Mako and Posta.The fraud also involved former Israeli footballer Liron Basis, who was arrested last week in Moscow at the request of German authorities. He is now in a detention centre in Moscow and is expected to be extradited to Germany. The reports outlined that Basis is a suspect in a fraud of about 30 million euros.Basis has hired a local lawyer and denied the acquisitions against him. Many other Israeli arrested and extradited to Germany were represented by Nir Rotenberg and Gib Rotenberg, who successfully obtained lighter sentences for many, while some were released to house arrest until the end of the trial.The local police revealed that the Israeli criminal organisations operated from offices in Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak. They also ran operations from cities in Eastern European countries, like Sofia, Belgrade, Budapest, Prague, Bucharest, Tbilisi, and others, employing dozens of German, Spanish, and Italian-speaking staff.The modus operandi of the gangs involved connecting with pensioners in high-income European countries and persuading them to invest in binary options with promises of high returns. They mostly targeted German nationals, which alerted the German authorities. “They establish cover companies, employ local young people and Israelis who supervise them, and operate without a trading license from those countries," an Israeli police officer told Mako.Binary options are banned in many countries, including Israel. Instead, many criminal groups lure victims by offering instruments that are very simple to understand—the payout is based simply on the up or down movement of an asset in a short period of time. These criminal gangs, however, usually do not invest the proceeds they collect from the victimsIn another similar forex fraud case, the German authorities filed a case last month, naming two Israelis, Timor Rukhlin and Tal Aharon, both of whom were extradited to Germany.According to the indictment, published in Posta, Rukhlin headed a financial criminal organisation that operated trading platforms under more than five different names and also targeted victims, mostly German, by telephone. According to the indictment, the organisation swindled 27 million euros, out of which 10 million euros came from German speakers. Aharon, on the other hand, was part of a Bulgaria-based criminal gang, other members of which are also being chased by the German police.The previous indictment by the German authorities also connected Rukhlin and Aharon to Airsoft, the Israeli company that provided the malicious technology to conduct the fraud. Last September, the Israeli police raided the Ramat Gan offices of Airsoft, Finance Magnates reported. However, the mastermind behind Airsoft, Jeremy Katlan, also known as Roni Hajjaj, fled Israel and is still at large.Rotenberg lawyers also represented Aharon and has managed to obtain a release order for him while the trial is ongoing. The lawyers also softened the charges against Aharon, only for his involvement in fraud. Rukhlin, on the other hand, is under house arrest.
Hong Kong Police crackdown on cryptocurrency scam involving counterfeit currency --Authorities in Hong Kong have flagged a surge in counterfeit banknotes brought into circulation via cryptocurrency scams.According to a local report, the Hong Kong police seized 3,396 fake notes between January and April 2024. The counterfeits amounted to a total face value of HK$2.55 million, approximately $326,130. Specifically, just three cryptocurrency scams and frauds have been responsible for a big chunk of these fakes in circulation.One such case saw a fraudster set up a bogus cryptocurrency for a cash counter in Tsim Sha Tsui. An unsuspecting woman fell victim to this scammer when she exchanged HK$1 million in Tether’s USDT stablecoin. The scammer got away with the crypto funds, and the woman was left with fake HK$1,000 notes. Another person was robbed of HK$1 million via a similar tactic, with the fraudster getting away with the man’s USDT.Per the recent report, the Hong Kong police have seized 1,693 “training notes” and 347 low-quality counterfeit bills tied to these scams. Training notes are employed to train bank staff and closely resemble the actual currency.The police have arrested three individuals in connection with these scams. The funds have been seized.Earlier this year, the Hong Kong police also apprehended 3,000 hell banknotes, a safe, and a note-counting machine from a cryptocurrency exchange shop in the same Tsim Sha Tsui region. Hell banknotes are used in traditional Chinese rituals as offerings to ancestors or deities. These closely resemble real currency.As of now, the authorities have asked the public to hand over counterfeit notes to the police or risk committing “the offense of passing counterfeit notes.”
'Significant work' remains to harmonize cybersecurity rules: Watchdog -In a report released Wednesday, the Government Accountability Office, which provides watchdog services for the U.S. Congress, found that executive branch departments — and the Treasury, in particular — have started work on harmonizing federal cybersecurity regulations but still have a long way to go.The report from the accountability office condenses and revisits some of its recent findings about efforts from the Office of the National Cyber Director, Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Treasury to bring conflicting regulations into alignment.One example of the current disharmony in cybersecurity regulations relates to data breach disclosure notification rules, which vary by state and are not preempted by one overriding federal law. For example, each state has a different timeline that governs how quickly a company that suffers a data breach must notify the state's attorney general about it — usually between 45 and 90 days of determining the scope of the breach.In its Wednesday report, the accountability office revisited an analysis it released in September 2020 that touched on this disharmony. In that analysis, four unnamed firms out of the 10 that agreed to speak with the accountability office mentioned difficulties following the various state breach notification requirements as opposed to one national requirement.That 2020 analysis concluded with two recommendations: that the Treasury track the content and progress of sector-wide cyber risk mitigation efforts, and that it update the sector-specific plan to include metrics for measuring progress on these efforts.In comments provided for the 2020 report, the Treasury generally agreed with the two recommendations but said it had limited authority to implement them.For example, the Treasury said that requests to firms to provide metrics about their progress toward sector-wide cybersecurity goals would create concern among the firms that the information provided could be released in response to Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, requests. While the information that firms share about specific data breaches are specifically disqualified from disclosure via FOIA requests, metrics about firms' progress toward meeting cybersecurity standards are not so clearly disqualified.In its report released Wednesday, the accountability office said the two recommendations to Treasury "remain open."The report touches on other harmonization efforts. For example, Congress and the president passed the Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act of 2022. The act established a Cyber Incident Reporting Council "to coordinate, deconflict, and harmonize federal incident reporting requirements, including those issued through regulation," according to the report.
Hsu says banks and AI companies should share responsibility for model errors — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu on Thursday said artificial intelligence providers and end-users like banks should develop a framework of shared responsibility for errors that stem from adoption of AI models. "In the cloud computing context, the 'shared responsibility model' allocates operations, maintenance, and security responsibilities to customers and cloud service providers depending on the service a customer selects," he said. "A similar framework could be developed for AI."Hsu said the U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute — a department of the National Institute of Standards and Technology that was created late last year — may be the appropriate agency to take up the task of hammering out the details of such a shared-responsibility framework.The statements came in a speech before the 2024 Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability hosted jointly by the Financial Stability Oversight Council and the Brookings Institution. Hsu remarks came only hours after the Treasury Department issued a request for information from the public on risks and potential benefits of AI. The agency says it is hoping to better understand how AI's risks can be mitigated while harnessing its potential to streamline processes and promote economic inclusion. As the financial industry's interest in artificial intelligence and machine learning grows, banking regulators have been trying to better understand the potential risks and benefits of the technology. Hsu likened AI's adoption in the financial sector to the trajectory of electronic trading 20 years ago, whereby the technology begins as a novelty, then becomes a more trusted tool before emerging as an agent in its own right. In AI's case, Hsu said, the technology will provide information to firms, then it will assist firms in making operations faster and more efficient before it ultimately will graduate to autonomously executing tasks.
BankThink: The turf war between banks and blockchain innovators serves nobody | American Banker --- The budding market for digital assets often resembles a turf battle between blockchain natives determined to build a new financial system and traditional institutions more intent on updating the status quo. But if the recent launch of bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the United States is a guide, the big opportunity for banks and other traditional organizations lies in closer collaboration with blockchain natives to promote trusted financial innovation that consumers want.Demand for the kinds of financial products developed by blockchain specialists is significant, according to new research from the Oliver Wyman Forum. Forty percent of the 11,000 respondents in a recent 11-country survey said they were interested in trading in financial markets without intermediaries and using independent systems outside of banks. What's more, 36% said they were interested in new investment opportunities such as tokenized assets, and 29% expressed interest in using blockchain-based borrowing and lending platforms.The problem for upstarts is that consumers place much less trust in the entities that have pioneered blockchain-based innovations in those areas than they do in banks. That may reflect reputational contagion from the collapses of crypto entities such as stablecoin issuer Terraform Labs and the FTX exchange.Partnerships between traditional financial firms and blockchain providers can be a win-win. For digital newbies, linkups with established firms can provide the trust consumers seek. For banks and finance firms, partnerships can help them enter potentially lucrative new markets — and give them access to younger consumers before upstarts win them for good. Those aged 18 to 44 are more than twice as interested in some types of blockchain-based financial innovation as older consumers, according to the survey, and don't have as much of a trust preference for banks over fintechs and crypto platforms.Until recently there was little direct competition between banks and crypto native firms, but that changed with the introduction of bitcoin ETFs. The line between conventional and blockchain-based finance looks likely to blur further going forward, particularly following the approval of ETFs holding ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, behind bitcoin.A number of banks and conventional asset managers have begun turning bonds, deposits, money market funds and other assets into tokens that can be traded on blockchains. Tokenized assets were estimated to be worth around $6.5 billion in 2023, but some forecasters say the market could surge to $4 trillion or more by 2030.To capitalize on that growth, traditional firms need to overcome the so-called innovator's dilemma: Banks, brokerages, and other established players would have to disrupt longstanding business relationships and layers of legacy technology to fully capture the speed and efficiency of blockchain and develop a broad range of innovative new products.
Is the latest crypto bill an opening for banks to bypass regulation? —A crypto bill that passed by an unusually wide bipartisan margin in the Housecould create a loophole for traditional financial firms — including banks — to slip past more stringent regulation. The House last month voted to pass a bill establishing a regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies, and the bill notably passed with uncommon bipartisan support. Seventy-one Democrats voted for the bill, including senior party members like former House speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California. The bill faces tougher odds in the Senate, where Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, has been skeptical of crypto legislation that he sees as being too favorable to the crypto industry. But the vote in the House was a turning point for crypto in Washington, as more Democratic lawmakers seem to be interested in considering some kind of bill. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., along with a group of mostly northeast and west coast Democrats, are becoming more friendly toward a narrow set of crypto issues, creating an opportunity for the crypto industry and for Republicans to find common ground and pass a bill setting up a regulatory regime for the industry. A number of Democratic senators, including Schumer, voted in favor of the Congressional Review Act challenge to the SEC's staff accounting bulletin 121, which banks argue effectively undercuts their ability to custody cryptocurrency. While Biden vetoed that challenge on Friday, the bill that just recently came out of the House would have a very similar effect, barring the SEC from making rules or issuing guidelines that would prevent banks from entering the crypto custody business. Going forward, a key element of the forthcoming debate on the crypto bill — known as the "Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act," or FIT21 — will be the implications of the bill not just on crypto, but traditional financial institutions, including banks. Some Democratic House members have argued that the bill could make it easier for banks — typically larger banks with established trading desks — and asset managers to create assets that would be overseen by the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is typically seen to have a lighter regulatory touch. Specifically, much of the concern centers around a section titled "Clarity for assets offered as part of an investment contract." Democrats on the House floor argued that this section was added in only the most recent iteration of the legislation and after the bill went through the House Financial Services Committee markup. "Language was added to the bill after it was marked up by the committees of jurisdiction that would allow even some traditional securities to also exist in this regulatory no-man's-land," said Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., on the House floor. The section outlines the ways in which an "investment contract asset" — normally something that would fall under the SEC's purview — would not be regulated by the SEC if it meets certain decentralization criteria, including that transaction of the asset is recorded on a cryptographically secured public ledger.
Does Numisma open or close the door for more novel banking charters? --Now that a bank with a special purpose charter has gained access to the Federal Reserve's financial services, experts are divided on whether it will be the first of many or the first and only.Last week, Numisma Bank became the first institution without deposit insurance to be granted a so-called master account with the Fed since the central bank revised its policies around account approvals. It did so with the backing of a Connecticut licensing regime that allows uninsured banks to operate within the state. This development has raised questions among policy experts and analysts about how easy it will be for other banks and other states to replicate that success. "It does suggest that, in at least some cases, these state chartered institutions without a federal regulator might still get Federal Reserve accounts," said Julie Hill, a law professor at the University of Alabama and expert on master accounts. "The question remaining is how big of an opportunity that is."Numisma is a de novo bank with a business model centered on distributing U.S. bank notes around the globe. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York granted it conditional approval for a master account in March before giving it full access on May 29, according to Jorge Perez, Connecticut's banking commissioner.Before the approval, it was unclear that a state chartered institution without insurance through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. or the National Credit Union Administration could actually obtain a master account. The Fed's guidelines say that such firms — known as Tier 3 applicants — may be eligible for accounts after an extensive review process. But in practice, three Tier 3 institutions — all of which sought to operate under specialized state charters — have been denied accounts in the past 16 months.
Number Of 'Problem Banks' Climbs In 1st Quarter, New FDIC Report Finds It has been more than a year since the regional banking crisis exposed vulnerabilities in the financial system. A new Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report discovered that the banking sector is still grappling with ballooning unrealized losses, a high number of “problem” banks, and various challenges that could worsen from high inflation and interest rates.The U.S. financial regulator released the findings of the “FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile First Quarter 2024” report on May 29. Officials confirmed that unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities rose by $39 billion to $517 billion.This, the report noted, represented the ninth consecutive quarter of “unusually high unrealized losses” since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March 2022.An increase in unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities accounted for most of the January-March jump.The FDIC report further revealed that the number of problem banks totaled 63 in the first quarter, up from 52 in the fourth quarter of 2023. They represented 1.4 percent of total U.S. banks, “which was within the normal range for non-crisis periods of one or two percent of all banks.”These banks appeared on the “Problem Bank List” because they contained a CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Assets, Management capability, Earnings, Liquidity, Sensitivity) composite rating of “4” or “5.”CAMELS is the FDIC’s 1-5 rating system, which assesses a financial institution’s performance, risk management practices, and degree of supervisory concern.Despite the banking system’s “resilience” in the first three months of 2024, the FDIC warned that the finance industry “still faces significant downside risks” from high inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and volatility in market interest rates.“These issues could cause credit quality, earnings, and liquidity challenges for the industry,” the report stated. “In addition, deterioration in certain loan portfolios, particularly office properties and credit card loans, continues to warrant monitoring. U.S. officials, be it at the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department, have repeatedly assured the public that the banking system is safe, sound, resilient, and highly liquid.However, a wave of reports suggests that there could be more turbulence ahead, especially concerning commercial real estate (CRE).New data analysis from Florida Atlantic University discovered that 67 U.S. banks are at a high risk of failure due to their exposure to CRE.The more than five dozen entities possess exposure to CRE greater than 300 percent of their total equity, the study found.“This is a very serious development for our banking system as commercial real estate loans are repricing in a high interest-rate environment,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., a Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business.“With commercial properties selling at serious discounts in the current market, banks eventually are going to be forced by regulators to write down those exposures.” Another study found that large U.S. banks might have more CRE exposure than financial regulators think because of credit lines and term loans given to real estate investment trusts (REITs).
BankThink: There's no right way to set minimum bank capital | American Banker -- Back in 2017 I took a trip to Princeton, N.J., to hear then-Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo give what amounted to a farewell address, where he outlined his closing thoughts about bank regulation after not quite a decade as the de facto head of supervision at the central bank. In that address, Tarullo said that the utility of stress testing as a pass/fail exercise may have already run its course, suggesting instead that "the supervisory examination work around stress testing and capital planning [be] completely moved into the normal, year-round supervisory process." Tarullo added that the qualitative aspect of the test — where banks retain post-stress minimum capital levels but the Fed still has reservations about how banks show their work — has limited value, especially if the Fed adopts (as it later did) a stress capital bufferframework for determining each bank's minimum capital requirements. Tarullo, who has not served in government since that speech, has nonetheless not stopped thinking about the appropriate role of stress testing in bank supervision. In a white paper published last month by the Brookings Institution, Tarullo — now a law professor at Harvard — argues that the role of stress testing as a proxy for bank capital needs to be rethought. If you're reading this, you either are hopelessly lost on the internet or already know the basics of what stress testing is. But for those who have wandered in from elsewhere, here it is: Stress tests take each applicable (read large) bank's balance sheet and run it through a proprietary model to see how each bank will perform under a hypothetical but very bad economic scenario, akin to the conditions banks experienced in the gooey kablooie of 2008. In the initial iteration of this regime, banks that came out of that hypothetical episode with at least the minimum capital levels required passed; those who did not failed, and would have to restrict their dividends and retain capital until they passed.Since 2020, the Fed has adopted something a little different, known as the stress capital buffer, or SCB — incidentally, an innovation that Tarullo himself developed and championed. That regime trades the static minimum capital requirements for a bespoke bank-by-bank minimum capital level based on each bank's performance in the prior year's stress test, so if a bank's capital only fell a little in the stress test the prior year, their minimum capital levels in the next test would be lower and vice versa. But Tarullo now argues that the biggest problem with stress testing — particularly as a means of assigning a bank's capital levels — is that it relies on a single hypothetical severely adverse scenario to determine how much capital banks will need to retain. That scenario is almost by definition not the kind of real-life severely adverse scenario banks might actually face — as we saw during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.The answer then might be to add additional scenarios to diversify the kinds of stresses that banks might face. But that invites another problem — which of the scenarios should be the binding one for capital purposes? Certainly an imaginative staff at the Fed could devise scenarios ranging from a mild recession to the extinction of life on earth, but assigning a binding constraint somewhere in between is arguably just as arbitrary as having a single scenario.Tarullo's conclusion — and a worthwhile policy debate that he is hoping to incite — is to make the stress test scenarios greater in number and more diverse in their nature and therefore more capable of picking up idiosyncrasies at individual banks or across the industry, but simultaneously decoupling those stress test results from actual minimum bank capital ratios."One realistic option is to decouple the annual stress test required by the Dodd-Frank Act from setting the regular, ongoing capital requirements of large banks," Tarullo writes. "That is, the SCB framework would be eliminated, and the binding capital requirements of large banks would generally be those set forth in notice-and-comment regulations. However … the stress test results could be used to inform both changes in those regulations and possible issuance of directives requiring specific banks to increase their capital ratios because of significant idiosyncratic risks."
CFPB finalizes new registry to track 'corporate repeat offenders' — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is gearing up to publicize repeat offenders of consumer laws, finalizing a database that will track wrongdoing across different states. The database, which agency officials expect to launch next year, is part of CFPB Director Rohit Chopra's mission to focus on repeat wrongdoing in and outside the banking industry. Some industry groups have pushed back against the database, saying existing tools already fulfill that need. But the CFPB director told reporters that the database will limit the ability of "fraudsters and scam artists" to resume wrongdoing, since it would easily let consumers track orders across different agencies and courts."Too many American families and businesses have been harmed by repeat offenders in a rinse-repeat cycle of illegal activity where bad actors see fines and penalties as just the cost of doing business," Chopra said, likening it to similar databases for lawyers, doctors and other industries.Payments companies, debt collectors, auto lenders and other nonbank companies will have to report whether they've faced an agency or court order for consumer infractions. The requirement covers orders going back to 2017, and companies must report any new orders or changes to existing ones within 90 days. Senior executives must also provide a written attestation every year stating that they've submitted all relevant orders.The registry would have captured trends across different states before the 2008 financial crisis, including state officials' attempts to "stop many of the abuses in the mortgage market," Chopra said. State regulators and law enforcement will benefit by being able to take action sooner, and the public will also be able to use the database as they evaluate companies to do business with.
BankThink: Overly formulaic AML compliance is bad for immigrants, and for banks | American Banker - Immigration policy is perhaps the most obvious and at the same time controversial issue on the American business agenda. On the one hand, immigrants have played a decisive role in shaping the modern face of the United States, making significant contributions to the economy, culture and society. On the other hand, opening your first U.S. bank account as an immigrant in 2024 is a surprisingly difficult task, since most immigrants formally meet the criteria for a high anti-money-laundering, or AML, risk. Citizens and immigrants, a priori, cannot have the same AML profile, so their compliance risks should be assessed differently.The foreign-born population of the U.S. is 49.5 million, representing more than 17% of the workforce and over 22% of entrepreneurs, according to the data. Immigrants' contribution to the modern U.S. economy is around $2 trillion and they pay $525 billion in taxes annually.This data indicates significant business potential to serve customers with immigrant status, but in banking practice the situation is in most cases somewhat different. Most banks approach the assessment of a client's AML risk formally and therefore often refuse to open an account for immigrants. Immigrants new to the U.S. do not have a credit history, making it difficult for banks to assess their risk profile and complete know-your-customer procedures. During know-your-customer compliance checks, migrants inevitably encounter differences in documentation standards between countries, unfamiliarity with the types of documents accepted by U.S. banks or challenges in obtaining specific documents such as government-issued IDs or proof of address, but this doesn't always mean the presence of real AML risks. Moreover, immigrants are half as likely to commit crimes as native-born citizens. However, the formal coincidence of migrant profiles with high-risk AML criteria in practice is the reason for the refusal to open an account.It would be a dangerous mistake to assume that banks' formal approach to assessing AML risks is an institution-specific decision. It's clear that banks that cannot correctly assess know-your-customer risks and make informed decisions regarding immigrants are losing their competitive position in the market due to loss of potential income. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Banks' formal approach to assessing AML risks undermines several key U.S. government policy objectives by driving financial activity out of the regulated financial system, hampering remittances and preventing low- and middle-income segments of the population from efficiently accessing the financial system. That's why the administration places a high priority on addressing de-risking, as it does not only hurt certain communities but can pose a national security risk by driving financial activity outside of regulated channels. Banking professionals know that strict adherence to government know-your-customer standards is mandatory but insufficient and doesn't remove all risks. Today, know your customer is not only about compliance. It's also a proactive business approach and independent competitive business advantage. In banking practice, this manifests itself through "de-risking" know-your-customer processes. This term does not have an official legislative definition, so each bank understands it differently. The topic of know-your-customer "de-risking" is directly related to the problems of errors in the compliance decision-making system. Its methodology is designed to ensure that banks' protective measures are proportional to the level of customers' real AML risks and to minimize errors in compliance decision-making. In other words, the formal know-your-customer approach is the result of a weak compliance system and does not correspond to the Financial Action Task Force concept of a risk-based approach. That's why compliance professionals know that in 2024, the term "know your customer" doesn't mean know your customer but rather "kill your career."
Minnesota bankers appeal dismissal of suit over FDIC's fee guidance - The Minnesota Bankers Association is appealing a judge's dismissal of the trade group's lawsuit over the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s efforts to crack down on nonsufficient funds fees. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota, trade group and its co-plaintiff, Lake Central Bank in Annandale, Minnesota, filed a notice of appeal Wednesday with the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. The filing comes two months after a Minnesota federal district court judge granted the FDIC's motion to dismiss the lawsuit. The plaintiffs sued the regulator last year for issuing supervisory guidance to banks on NSF fees without engaging in the formal notice-and-comment rulemaking process. The suit was dismissed in April on the grounds that the plaintiffs did not have standing to sue. The Minnesota Bankers Association decided to appeal because it is "confident" in its ability to prove that it does meet the standing requirements and because it has "strong arguments that will allow [us] to prevail on the merits of the case," Joe Witt, president and CEO of the trade group, said Thursday in an email. "Congress passed the Administrative Procedure Act to ensure that federal agencies treat their regulated entities fairly," Witt said in the email. "Sadly, there are too many recent examples where the banking agencies have acted in an unlawful and unfair manner." The FDIC declined to comment Thursday on the plaintiffs' plans to appeal and on Witt's statement.
CFPB finalizes standard-setting body rules for open banking — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has finalized part of its open banking rule, and will require that industry bodies wanting to set standards for consumers to share their data include consumer advocates and others in their decision-making process. "Industry standards can be weaponized by dominant firms in order to maintain their market position, undermining competition for all," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra in a statement. "Today's rule will prevent these firms from rigging standards in their favor by identifying attributes the CFPB will use to recognize standard setters."The rule was briefly published late Tuesday evening before the bureau took it down. The CFPB released the rule, alongside a press release, Wednesday morning. In order to be recognized by the CFPB, the bureau said that standard setters can't be "rigged in favor of any set of industry players." "Achieving balance requires recognition that, even when a participant may play multiple roles, such as data provider and authorized third party, the weight of that participant's commercial concerns may align primarily with one set of interests," the bureau said. "The ownership of participants is considered in achieving balance."Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act requires that consumer financial data collected by companies be made available to consumers, who in turn may share it with other service providers, effectively allowing consumers to share their banking data directly with fintechs and other third parties. Under last October's proposed rule, the precise mechanisms and parameters of that data sharing will be managed by independent standard-setting organizations recognized by the CFPB.
Comerica to settle Direct Express fraud class-action lawsuit for $1.2 million Comerica Bank has agreed to a proposed $1.2 million settlement to resolve a class-action lawsuit alleging the bank denied refunds to prepaid cardholders who claimed their government benefits were stolen from a Treasury Department program. The proposed settlement would end a five-year court battle against $79.4 billion-assetComerica, which has faced allegations that it mishandled fraud claims, failed to reimburse customers and did not properly oversee third-party vendors of the Treasury Department's Direct Express program. The majority of the 4.5 million Americans using Direct Express do not have a bank account and receive monthly Social Security, Veterans and other benefits electronically on prepaid debit cards. In the past month, beneficiaries have been sent postcards in the mail announcing the proposed settlement of the lawsuit, which is still pending in the United States District Court for the Western District of Texas. The settlement covers current and former Direct Express cardholders who submitted fraud claims between February 12, 2018, and September 28, 2022. In 2019, eight beneficiaries sued Comerica and its third-party call center operator, Conduent Inc., alleging money was stolen from their Direct Express accounts and that the companies refused to issue refunds. A federal judge certified the class in 2022. Comerica and Conduent also administer various federal and state assistance programs. Comerica and Conduent — a large conglomerate and call center operator based in Florham Park, N.J. — denied any wrongdoing. Even so, the two companies did not track fraud claims and were unable to identify and provide the court with the names of beneficiaries who had filed fraud claims over a four-and-a-half-year period, according to the 97-page proposed settlement.
Regulators are laying the groundwork to rein in private credit — The rapid expansion of private credit — and banks' relationship with firms that offer it — has begun to draw significant attention from bank regulators, and could signal a new regulatory priority if President Biden wins a second term. Private credit — also known as private debt — refers to instances where nonbanks lend directly to companies, bypassing more traditional and regulated paths like bank lending, capital markets or bond issues to obtain capital. The alternative investment class has seen substantial growth since its inception in the 1980s, reaching an estimated total lending volume of nearly $2 trillion in 2024. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the market could grow to $3 trillion by 2028, driven primarily by institutional investors seeking diversification and higher returns. That growth has positioned private credit as a significant alternative to traditional bank loans for businesses seeking financing.The Financial Stability Oversight Council — a regulatory body created by the Dodd-Frank Act composed of the heads of nine federal financial regulators — pointed to the sector's lending to high-risk borrowers and its links to banks as potential sources of financial instability in a May 2023 report. The council stopped short of demanding regulatory action, suggesting instead that the group enhance its data collection on nonbank lending to nonfinancial businesses.Industry experts say the likelihood of FSOC taking action is low in an election year, but that another Biden term could give the group time to pursue such risks."If Biden remains in office, I think you will see continued statements of concern from Democratic regulators," said Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners. "In a second term the FSOC would have four years to do something, so I think there's a good chance of some kind of measure by FSOC, perhaps a designation of some private credit-related activity as potentially systemic."Regulatory agencies — many of which also have leaders who sit on FSOC — have raised concerns on their own. A February 2024 report by a researcher at the Federal Reserveidentified five major risks associated with private credit, including the absence of a secondary market for private credit loans, rendering the debt less liquid; higher default risk from highly leveraged corporate borrowers; private credit's potentially lower underwriting standards; and the hidden risks of the sector's interconnectedness with other financial firms like pension funds, insurance companies and banks. The 2024 findings offer a more concerned perspective than the current official agency line. The Fed called risks stemming from private credit "limited"in a financial stability report the year prior.Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu recently highlighted his concern with nonbanks like private equity firms performing functions traditionally done by banks. He said the increasing prevalence of evergreen funds that forgo investor fund "lockups" — proscribed periods when withdrawals are forbidden — is concerning, likening the vehicles to open-end bond funds, which have themselves been cited as risky by FSOC. He suggested that FSOC develop a regulatory "tripwire" to impose restrictions when funds' get too risky."[Under this approach,] closed-end funds with long lockup periods would have a lower scalar than innovative, non-closed-end fund structures, such as evergreen funds," Hsu noted. "Private credit funds with no links or affiliations with PE-influenced insurers or reinsurers would have a lower scalar than those with links and affiliations."
BankThink: CFPB's regulatory overreach is actively harming small businesses | American Banker - Consumer confidence and uncertainty have wavered since the end of the pandemic. Inflationcontinues to take its toll, worrying small-business owners and consumers about its future course. With inflation moving higher, those worries have swelled. Predictability is needed and the government can play an important role in achieving that end, but only if policy moves in a rational direction.A major driver of uncertainty is regulatory activism and overreach. Federal government agencies are expanding their scope and grip beyond their traditional or statutory domains. Regulatory threats and costs are draining optimism and forcing small businesses to waste resources that could be used to survive inflationary pressures or invest in more productive uses. At a time when profits are already squeezed and consumers are tightening their belts, the federal government should not be piling on with new costs. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is one such federal entity that is piling on with intrusive regulation and ignoring the effects of these actions on small businesses. One such example, falling under the category of labeling appropriate business activity as abusive, is the mandate that caps credit card late fees at just under $10. The harmful consequences of this CFPB mandate will make its way to countless small businesses. The disparate impact not only affects small firms in the financial sector, but also small-business consumers that need capital to operate and grow.In a newly released index from the American Financial Services Association, or AFSA, twice as many lenders reported that conditions have worsened over the first three months of 2024. In almost every category — including customer demand, funding costs and the performance of outstanding loans — indicators worsened. In part, this grim picture is due to federal regulatory activity that is vastly disrupting and undermining the important lending services the financial sector provides.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Is Making Enemies in All the Right Places By Pam and Russ Martens: Fresh off a big win at the U.S. Supreme Court on May 16, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is wasting no time in its heady pursuit of financial bad actors preying on the little guy.On Monday, the federal agencyannounced it was creating a public registryto help law enforcement, investors and the public check the history of repeat offenders in finance. The CFPB already offers consumers who have been victimized by a financial firm the ability to file a public complaint with the CFPB. The agency then quickly demands a written response from the alleged wrongdoer. Repeat offenders dislike the fact that these complaints go into a permanent database at the CFPB, which can be mined by the public, reporters, attorneys and prosecutors looking for patterns of fraud. (For how Wall Street On Parade put that complaint database to good use, read our report: The Apple Credit Card Provided through Goldman Sachs Has Created a Living Hell According to Consumer Complaints.)On Tuesday, the CFPB released a circular letting financial firms know that if they sneak deceptive and/or illegal terms into the fine print of their consumer contracts they risk getting an enforcement action from the CFPB. One example cited was the Truth in Lending Act, which prohibits fine print in mortgage contracts that purport to force homeowners into mandatory arbitration (claiming to remove the option of a court proceeding) to deal with a mortgage dispute.The Supreme Court case in May, where the independent funding of the CFPB was under attack by multiple forces hostile to a gutsy federal consumer protection agency, was just the latest in a long series of attempts to kill the CFPB since its creation under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010.Back in 2015, a political front group called the American Action Network launched a $500,000 ad campaign against the CFPB during the Republican presidential debate. The campaign outrageously attempted to cast the CFPB as a communist organization. One ad featured giant banners hanging from a front wall with the faces of then CFPB Director, Richard Cordray, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who had been instrumental in creating the agency — in a nod to Soviet dictator images.The advertisement was a masterpiece of misinformation, overtly suggesting that the job of the CFPB is to deny car loans and mortgages to regular folks seeking credit. The agency, in fact, has zero involvement with approving credit applications. Its job is to root out and punish financial institutions that are ripping off customers. Just four months before the ad campaign was unveiled, the recidivist bank, Citigroup, was ordered by the CFPB to reimburse an estimated $700 million to 7 million of its credit card customers for deceptive marketing and billing for services that were never provided.The mysterious American Action Network (AAN) behind the deceptive ad campaign is a dark money group that has battled at the Federal Election Commission and in federal courts to keep its dark money donors a secret from the American people. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has been fighting to open AAN’s dark secrets to some public sunshine for more than a decade.
CFPB renews warnings about 'fine print' violations - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday renewed warnings to lenders and servicers about "unlawful or unenforceable" contract terms, something it first attempted to address with a controversial proposal for a nonbank form registry last year"Federal and state laws ban a host of coercive contract clauses that censor and restrict individual freedoms and rights. CFPB will take action against companies and individuals that deceptively slip these terms into their fine print," Director Rohit Chopra said in a press release.The CFPB's new circular warning that the bureau will enforce existing rules governing contracts follows a day after the bureau greenlighted a proposed registry aimed at tracking "repeat offenders" of consumer laws.One example the CFPB's circular cited for home mortgages involved arbitration requirements and other actions restricting certain borrowers to non-judicial processes. The bureau identified these as potential violations of Reg Z, which implements the Truth in Lending Act. Home equity lines of credit secured by primary residences also are protected by the rule, the CFPB noted.While consumer advocates have sought more bars on forced arbitration, this may add to Republican debate around whether the CFPB has been engaging in overreach in its attempts to limit use of it after the congressional rollback of related authority during the Trump administration.Potentially adding to discussion around arbitration was a May 23 Supreme Court decision in the case Coinbase Inc. v. Suski, which, regarding the type of dispute resolution that should be used, puts more weight on judicial proceedings to resolve contractual conflicts.The decision in the case involving one contract requiring arbitration and another calling for a judicial procedure indicates that, "it is for the court, not the arbitrators, to decide whether the dispute is to be heard by a court or in arbitration," according to law firm Cleary Gottlieb.In its warning about contracts, the CFPB also alluded to loss mitigation disclosure issues by linking to a historical supervisory report that identifies some uses as violations of Reg X and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act.
CRE Industry Now Frets about Next Existential Threat to Office Towers: AI - By Wolf Richter --Offices are already being abandoned on a large scale by companies that want to reduce their useless office space. Office availability rates in major cities have soared to 25% and even to 30%-plus, and have triggered massive repricing of office properties.And now they’re facing another “existential threat”: AI. That’s what the CRE industry is worrying about.Generative AI is already everywhere for all to see and hear and talk to, from articles in major publications to chatbots that annoy already exasperated consumers to no end. It’s heavily used in tech. It’s used in healthcare from writing up diagnoses produced by automated equipment to generating patient visit summaries off of recordings – stuff that humans had to do.It’s a lot better than it used to be, but it’s still apt to produce hilarity. For example, the AI-generated headline on the Bloomberg Terminal today, by Bloomberg Automation: “Berkshire Hathaway Declines 100%, Most in at Least 36 Years,” it said about the technical glitch at the NYSE that caused Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares to briefly plunge by 99%, before the glitch was corrected. And in the text, it said hilariously: “the stock reversed the previous session’s gain… The stock was the worst performer among its peers.” And it failed to provide the most important context: that this was a technical glitch.AI-generated stories have been published for years. Sometimes they’re reviewed or edited by a human, and sometimes they’re not. Even if they’re reviewed by a human, or if a human reporter used AI to generate a big part of the story, one human can now do the work that 10 or 20 humans would have done before. Sure, AI is known to produce “fluent bullshit,” but so are humans. And humans need editors too. And AI is starting to replace humans in these offices. And not just in publishing.Cities with a concentration of sectors – such as tech jobs in Santa Clara – may be hit with a new wave of office vacancies, Julie Ingersoll, Chief Investment Officer for Americas Direct Real Estate Strategies at CBRE Investment Management, said at a CBRE event, according to Bisnow Commercial Real Estate News. Which jobs and the timing are uncertain.“If we lose 25% of our [office] jobs in the United States — think coding jobs, secretarial, even sales-related roles — what is that downstream impact going to be on office, when we already have a 55-year high of office vacancy.”“We think it’s going to have a pretty deleterious impact on office demand,” she said.The sectors that are impacted span the spectrum. She cited one of CBRE IM’s student housing partners that recently leased 60% of all of its housing for the next academic year using AI, rather than brokers and in-person tours, according to Bisnow. She cited regulatory governmental roles and tech jobs.The repetitive nature of many coding jobs means some office markets in tech centers could be at risk, Wei Luo, a director of research at CBRE IM, said.This looming depopulation of offices due to AI would be in addition to the already rampant depopulation of offices due to working from home, and it would be in addition to the aftermath of “the War for Space” before the pandemic, when vast amounts of office space was grabbed for future use, and remained vacant, as companies expected to grow into it. But as working from home took over, they then decided they wouldn’t need that vacant office space and put it out on the sublease market, turning office shortages in the hottest office markets, such as San Francisco, into historic office gluts. So now what? “There will be some buildings that are easy to convert to apartments, but most are not,” “People ask me all the time, ‘Can office be data centers? Can office be warehouses? Can office be life sciences?’” Hourihan said. “In most cases, as we’ve seen with regional malls, the answer is: it’s worth its land value. The highest and best use is to scrap it and build something else.”
Sen. Warren: Return FHLBs to housing mission — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pressed Federal Housing Finance Agency head Sandra Thompson to move forward on rulemakings that would focus the Federal Home Loan banks more squarely on affordable housing financing. While some lawmakers, notably Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto, D-Nev., who has challenged officials during Senate Banking Committee hearings, have questioned the Federal Home Loan banks' housing goals and how well they're being met, Warren's letter represents an escalation in political pressure in favor of the reform that the FHFA is trying to force on the Federal Home Loan Bank System. Warren said in the letter that the Federal Home Loan banks have "failed to deliver on their housing and community development mission," and cited the advances the Home Loan banks gave to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank before they failed last year. "While these subsidies were meant to address our nation's housing needs, they mostly supported bank executives and shareholders instead," Warren said in the letter. She urged Thompson to act on the FHFA's suggestions in a long-awaited review of the Federal Home Loan banks in November. Specifically, Warren said that the FHFA should change membership requirements for the banks, "ending the current absurd state of affairs where, in recent years, nearly half of Federal Home Loan bank members have not originated a single mortgage." She asked that the agency create rules that would require members to hold at least 10% of their assets in residential mortgages in order to receive Federal Home Loan bank financing. Warren also asked that the FHFA clarify the mission of the Federal Home Loan banks as providing stable liquidity to members and supporting housing and community development, "not simply to prop up failing banks."
ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Cool for Second Straight Month in April" : Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Cool for Second Straight Month in April as Purchase Demand Softens, Inventory Deficits Improve
- The number of homes for sale has been gradually improving on softer purchase demand in this spring’s higher interest rate environment, as inventory hit its highest seasonally adjusted level since mid-2020
- Nearly 90% of U.S. metropolitan areas now have more homes for sale than at this same point last year, with inventory in 14 of the top 100 markets having returned to pre-pandemic, 2017-2019 levels
- The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) for April showed cooling annual growth for the second consecutive month, falling to +5.1% from a revised 5.7% in March and +6.1% in February
- Similarly, unadjusted monthly gains (+0.88%) in April dipped below the 25-year same-month average for the first time this year
- Adjusted for seasonality, home prices rose +0.28% in April (down from March’s +0.45%), equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +3.4%
- Should adjusted gains hold at this pace, by June the backward-looking annual growth rate would fall below +4.25% and be less than +4% by July
- However, with both supply (-36%) and demand (-45%) still sitting well below pre-pandemic levels, meaningful 30-year interest rate movements could shift the market relatively quickly in either direction
Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in April. Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in April and are below the pre-pandemic levels.
- The national delinquency rate fell to 3.09% in April – its second lowest level on record behind only March’s record low of 2.92% – marking a 22 bps improvement from the same time last year
- The number of borrowers one payment late dropped by 30K to an eight-month low and those 60 days late fell 6K to the lowest level in 10 months
- Delinquency inflows to 30 days late hit a three-month low as rolls to later stages also declined, while cures from both early and late-stage delinquency reversed the prior month’s improvement
The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above normal, whereas inventory is still low in most of the country. With higher interest rates and reduced demand this spring, 90% of major markets are seeing more homes for sale than there were at this same time last year. Every major Florida market had at least 50% more inventory in April than at the same time last year, with Cape Coral up 87% over the past 12 months (the most of any market nationwide)Inventory has shown more limited improvement, and has in some cases worsened, in the Northeast and Midwest where markets continue to experience upward pressure on home prices Inventories are currently at or above prepandemic levels in 14% of major markets (up from 10% a month prior) with Florida, Texas, and Colorado accounting for all but one of those markets (San Francisco +6% vs. 2017-2019 is the only other major market with normal levels of inventory) Lakeland, Fla., has the largest surplus with 43% more homes for sale in April than it averaged from 2017-2019, with Austin, Texas next at +29% and San Antonio coming in third at +27% On the opposite end of the spectrum, in Connecticut, Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven continue to have the deepest inventory deficits (>75%), with little movement from the same time last year, as inventory levels remain a major challenge. Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. Black Knight reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 5.1% year-over-year in April, down from 5.7% YoY in March.There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending May 31, 2024. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 16 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 16 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week, with the 30-year conforming rate reaching 7.07 percent – its highest level since early May – despite incoming data indicating somewhat slower economic growth,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the Memorial Day holiday, both purchase and refinance application volumes were down, with purchase activity specifically 13 percent below last year’s level.” “Government purchase volume was down less, helped by growth in VA applications. The market is relying on first-time homebuyer demand, and many first-time buyers do use government lending programs.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.07 percent from 7.05 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 13% year-over-year unadjusted.Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and mostly flat lined since then with a slight increase recently.
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1 -During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.Unlike during the housing bubble, very few homeowners have negative equity now. From CoreLogic this morning: Homeowner Equity Insights – Q1 2024 CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 62% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of $1.5 trillion since the first quarter of 2023, a gain of 9.6% year over year.In the first quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 2.1% from the fourth quarter of 2023, representing 1 million homes, or 1.8% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity declined by 16.1% from 1.2 million homes, or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties, from the first quarter of 2023.Refinance activity declined significantly in early 2022 as mortgage rates increased, and I was expecting MEW to also decline as fewer homeowners used cash-out refinancing. However, in mid-2022, homeowners switched to using home equity loans (2nd loans) to extract equity from their homes.The Fed noted this increase in demand for HELOCs in the October 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices: “banks reported tighter standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).” However, in the last six quarterly surveys, the Fed noted that “banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).” Since demand weakened for HELOCs, and refinancing activity is off sharply, MEW turned negative in Q1 2023 and was only slightly positive in Q2 through Q4 2023, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is an aggregate number and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures).Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.In Q1 2024, mortgage debt increased $38 billion, down from $91 billion in Q4, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).The second graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.Mortgage debt is up $2.38 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 46.3% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. This means most homeowners have large equity cushions in their home. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q1 - but is below the peak in Q2 2022, and is well above the average of the last 30 years. ICE estimated equity withdrawal in their June Mortgage Monitor. From ICE:
- As reported in our May Mortgage Monitor report, mortgage holders had $16.9T in equity entering Q2 2024, of which $11T could be borrowed against while maintaining a 20% equity cushion both record highs
- However, higher interest rates are making homeowners reluctant to borrow against that equity due to the elevated cost to do so
- Overall, a combined $37.5B in equity was withdrawn in Q1 via cash-out refinances ($17.5B) and second lien home equity loans/lines of credit ($20B), down slightly from in $38B in Q4 2024.
- Historically, home equity withdrawals especially second lien extractions hit seasonal lows in Q4 /Q1 before seasonal rises in the spring and summer months
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.5% in April, down from up 6.6% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...As of April, 9 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-2.1%), Hawaii (-1.4%), Utah (-1.1%), and D.C. (-1.1%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 5.3% Year-over-year in April -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Monthly US Home Price Gains Dip Below Seasonal Average in April• U.S. year-over-year single-family home price appreciation was 5.3% in April, the same as in March.
• All states posted annual appreciation in March, led by New Hampshire (12%), New Jersey (11%) and South Dakota (10.8%).
• Of the 10 tracked major U.S. metro areas, San Diego (9.9%) overtook Miami (9.7%) for the top spot.
... Annual U.S. home price appreciation remained above 5% in April, with three states posting double-digit gains. By next spring, national price gains are projected to slow to 3.4%, with only a few states putting up increases of higher than 6%. This slow cooling reflects not only the increasing number of homes on the market in some parts of the country, but also elevated, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, which remain around 7%, a major factor influencing America’s continuing housing affordability challenges. “Home price growth continues to slow, as a comparison with a strong 2023 spring is still impacting year-over-year differences,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Nevertheless, the April uptick in mortgage rates to this year’s high has cooled some of the typical spring homebuyer demand, which pulled monthly gains of 1.1% below the March-to-April average.” “The home price slowing also highlights buyers’ increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, as well as the anticipation that presumed lower rates down the road will help ease the affordability crunch,” Hepp continued. “Also, the price cooling is more pronounced in markets where there has been an influx of inventory and/or new construction, as well as those where additional homeownership costs (such as insurance, taxes and HOA fees) have risen relatively faster.”
Housing June 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 38.4% Year-over-yearAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 22.4% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020.. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 31st, inventory was at 605 thousand (7-day average), compared to 595 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 85% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 38.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 37.0%), and down 35.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 36.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 35.5% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.5% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 1, 2024• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.5% above year-ago levels/ For the 30th straight week, there were more homes listed for sale versus the prior year, giving homebuyers more options. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 35.5% compared with last year. This growth in inventory is primarily driven by housing markets in the South, which saw a 47.2% year-over-year increase in inventory in May.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—were up this week, by 2.1% from one year ago
Seller activity continued to climb annually last week but decelerated relative to the previous week’s growth. Newly listed homes grew by 2.1% compared with a year ago, a slowdown from the 3.6% growth rate in the previous week. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
Inventory was up year-over-year for the 30th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although up year-over-year.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year - Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). Now that household formation has slowed, and multi-family completions have increased, rents are under pressure. From ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer. Since the second half of 2022, seasonal declines have been steeper than usual and seasonal increases have been more mild. As a result, apartments are on average slightly cheaper today than they were one year ago. Year-over-year rent growth nationally currently stands at -0.8 percent and has now been in negative territory since last summer. CoreLogic: “Attached Single-Family Rental Prices Post First Annual Decrease in 14 Years” U.S. single-family rent growth continued to slowly increase year over year in March to 3.4%. After registering a 2.9% annual gain in February, attached rental appreciation lost ground in March, posting a -0.6% loss. There is much more in the article.
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.1 Trillion in Q1 - The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $160.8 trillion during the first quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.8 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.9 trillion. ... Household debt increased 2.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth increased $5.1 trillion in Q1 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q1, but is below the peak in 2021.This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q1 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 73.8% - up from 73.4% in Q4, 2023. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $38 billion in Q1. Mortgage debt is up $2.38 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 46.3% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q1 - but is below the peak in Q2 2022, and is well above the average of the last 30 years.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in April -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:Construction spending during April 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,099.0 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion. The April figure is 10.0 percent (±1.5 percent) above the April 2023 estimate of $1,907.8 billion. Private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,611.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised March estimate of $1,613.3 billion. ... In April, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $487.1 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised March estimate of $488.2 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 8.2% below the recent peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 1.0% below the peak two months ago. Public construction spending is 0.2% below the peak last month. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 8.0%. Non-residential spending is up 8.3% year-over-year. Public spending is up 16.8% year-over-year.This was below consensus expectations for 0.2% increase in spending, however, total construction spending for the previous two months was revised up. This is probably just the start of weakness for private non-residential construction.
Update: Lumber Prices Down Slightly YoY -- Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). LBR is currently at $489.50 per 1000 board feet, down 4% from a year ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.We didn't see a significant runup in the Spring of 2023 due to the housing slowdown, and we didn't see much of a pickup in the Spring of 2024 either.
Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US: Semiconductors, Auto Industry, and Everyone Else - by Wolf Richter -- Companies plowed $18.4 billion in April into the construction of manufacturing plants in the US, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of construction spending of a record $212 billion, according to the Census Bureau today. This was up by 140% to 200% from the range in 2015 through mid-2021. The spike in factory-construction activity began in the second half of 2021. The CHIPS Act, signed into law in August 2022, seems to have turbocharged it, though the money hasn’t even started flowing yet. Beyond semiconductors, a large number and a great variety of manufacturing plants have been announced over the past two years, and we’ll get to some that were announced just in recent weeks. They’re part of what the National Manufacturing Association has termed, “general reshoring.” During the record year of 2023, spending on factory construction spiked by 71% from 2022, and by 138% from 2021, to $196 billion. And 2024 is on track to set a new record as the eyepopping boom continues. This boom is a result of a massive corporate and government rethink after the supply-chain and transportation chaos during the pandemic, the increasingly edgy relationship between the US and China, the fundamentally scary dependence by US companies on production in China, and the nerve-racking dependence on semiconductor production in Taiwan. Inflation explains only a small portion of the spending boom. The Producer Price Index for construction costs of nonresidential buildings exploded in mid-2021 through 2022, but then hit a ceiling and has remained roughly unchanged at this sky-high level since December 2022 (red in the chart below). From September 2021 through December 2022, the index spiked by 28%. Over the same period, investment in factory construction jumped by 56%. Since then, the PPI has remained flat to down, while investment in factory construction jumped by another 64%. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI for nonresidential construction has been negative for the first four months of 2024 (green): Construction costs are just part of the investment in a factory. In general, today’s largely automated manufacturing processes require costly equipment that can dwarf the construction costs of the building. But the costs of the manufacturing equipment and related costs are not included in the data of construction spending here. In terms of the semiconductor industry: the total cost of a chip plant might reach $20 billion, but the construction costs are only a smallish part of it. The costs of the equipment and the costs of getting it all to operate eat up a far bigger part of the investment. The first grants and loans under the CHIPS act were awarded only in March 2024, spearheaded by the announcement that Intel would get up to $23 billion in grants and loans, plus up to $25 billion in tax credits. This was followed by announcements that TSMC (the world’s largest contract chip maker), Samsung, and Micron each would get over $6 billion in grants, and that Global Foundries would get $1.5 billion in grants. Smaller announcements followed. But the deals will take time to finalize, and disbursement will be spread out over phases. The total costs of building a fab, to equip it, and to get it up and running are huge. TSMC has announced over $65 billion in investments, including $40 billion for two fabs that are now under construction near Phoenix. Despite assorted delays and issues, TSMC said that its first fab “is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology” in the first half of 2025. Intel has rolled out $100 billion in investment plans, including $43 billion for facilities in Ohio, New Mexico, Oregon, and Arizona. Texas Instruments is investing $30 billion in Texas. Samsung is investing about $45 billion in Texas. Micron is talking about $125 billion, with new plants in New York and Idaho. These numbers are gigantic, but only a smallish part of it all will be construction costs of the building and will be tracked here. Chip plants are written all over this boom in factory construction because the plans are huge and costly, heavily government subsidized, and get all the publicity. But there’s more going on. Here is a sampling of announcements beyond semiconductors over just the past few weeks:
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.6% Year-over-year --From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 May - The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed performance results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 May. ... 19-25 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 67.7% (+1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.67 (+2.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.73 (+3.9%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally when the summer travel season begins.
Verizon, AT&T customers faced ‘nationwide issue’ affecting ability to make calls - Customers of AT&T and Verizon faced problems when calling between carriers, the companies said, according to multiple reports.“The interoperability issue between carriers has been resolved,” an AT&T spokesperson said in an emailed statement to The Hill Tuesday. “We collaborated with the other carrier to find a solution and appreciate our customers’ patience during this period.”AT&T also told The Hill that the network didn’t undergo a “nationwide outage” and calls “between our customers were not impacted.”In an earlier Tuesday statement, a spokesperson for the company said there was a “nationwide issue that is affecting the ability of some customers to complete calls between carriers.”“We are working closely with the other carrier to determine the nature of the issue and what actions need to be taken,” the company said. According to CNBC, Verizon said its network was functioning as it should, but that “some customers, primarily in the Northeast and Midwest, are experiencing issues when calling or texting with customers served by another carrier.”The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said in a post on the social platform X Tuesday that it was “aware of reports that consumers in multiple states are unable to make wireless calls and we are currently investigating.”
Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR in May; Up 2.5% YoY -- Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for May: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue 2024 Trend of Slow, Steady Growth (pay site). Further confirming as a theme for 2024, growth in May largely was centered in the most affordable CUV and car segments. Other sectors during the first five months of 2024 have either recorded sporadic gains or fell into steady decline, including some, such as fullsize pickups, that are coming off lengthy periods of strong results. So far in 2024, market strength is with more affordable small and midsize CUVs and small sedans. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for May (red). Sales in May (15.90 million SAAR) were up 1.0% from April, and up 2.5% from May 2023.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in May were at the consensus forecast.
Heavy Truck Sales Unchanged in May - This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 512 thousand SAAR in May, down slightly from 512 thousand in April, and down 9.4% from 565 thousand SAAR in May 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.
Trade Deficit Increased to $74.6 Billion in April - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $263.7 billion, $2.1 billion more than March exports. April imports were $338.2 billion, $8.0 billion more than March imports. Both exports imports increased in April. Exports are up 5.1% year-over-year; imports are up 4.5% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $20.1 billion from $20.0 billion a year ago.
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in May - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.7% in May, down from 49.2% in April. The employment index was at 51.1%, up from 48.6% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.4%, down from 49.1%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7%; May 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the second consecutive month and the 18th time in the last 19 months: “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in May, down 0.5 percentage point from the 49.2 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 49th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 45.4 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 49.1 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (50.2 percent) is 1.1 percentage points lower than April’s figure of 51.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 57 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 60.9 percent in April. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, down 3 percentage points compared to the 45.4 percent recorded in April. The Employment Index registered 51.1 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from April’s figure of 48.6 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in May. This was below the consensus forecast.
Services ISM Unexpectedly Surges Out Of Contraction, Prints At 53.8, Above All Estimates -After the Manufacturing ISM unexpectedly tumbled to the lowest level since February (led by a collapse in New Orders which tumbled at the fastest rate since Dec 2023), markets were expecting today's Services ISM to come in well below estimates and to be generally ugly. And, as always happens, when Wall Street expects something, the opposite happens and moments ago the Institute for Supply Management reported that the May ISM Services index unexpectedly jumped from a contractionary print of 49.4 in April to a 53.8 in May, which was not only the highest print since August 2023...... but was also above the highest Wall Street estimate of 52.5 (from Dai-Ichi) and was a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate of 51.0. What is perhaps more important is that unlike the Manucaturing ISM print which saw New Orders collapse to 45.4 and prompted rumbling of a recession, the ISM Service New Orders actually jumped to 54.1, from 52.2, pushing the spread between the two New Orders series to 8.7, the widest since last October.Also of note, the closely watched Employment and Prices Paid indexes also moved in the right direction: Prices Paid dipped from 59.2 to 58.1, below the 59.0 expected (meaning less latent inflation),and further away from stagflationary territory while Employment remained contractionary but rebounded from last month's 45.9 print to 47.1 (if just below the 47.2 exp). Here is the full breakdown: Commenting on the report, Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM, said the following: “In May, the Services PMI registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than April’s reading of 49.4 percent. The contraction in April ended a string of 15 months of services sector growth following a composite index reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent in May, which is 10.3 percentage points higher than the 50.9 percent recorded in April. The New Orders Index expanded in May for the 17th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 54.1 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the April reading of 52.2 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the fifth time in six months, though at a slower rate in May with a reading of 47.1 percent, a 1.2-percentage point increase compared to the 45.9 percent recorded in April.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.1 million in April From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for April; the employment report this Friday will be for May. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in April to 8.06 million from 8.36 million in March. The number of job openings (black) were down 19% year-over-year. Quits were down 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP Payrolls Unexpectedly Tumble To Lowest Since January As Wage Growth Continues Slowing --Extending the recent trend of unexpectedly weak labor market indicators, moments ago ADP reported that in May, the US added just 152K Private Payrolls, a 36K drop from the March (downward revised) number of 188K (originally 192K) to the lowest number since the 111K reported in January.... and far below the median consensus of 175k. Under the hood, unlike last month when practically everything was solid, there were multiple weak spots, with manufacturing and mining jobs seeing a sharp drop in jobs in the goods-producing category, coupled with further job losses in highly paid information and professional services. Meanwhile, the biggest gains were once again in the lowest paid education/health services. Additionally, there were job losses in the Pacific West and among small companies (between 20 and 49 workers).
May Employment Report: 272 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 5,000, from +315,000 to +310,000, and the change for April was revised down by 10,000, from +175,000 to +165,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 15,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 272 thousand in May. Private payrolls increased by 229 thousand, and public payrolls increased 433 thousand. Payrolls for March and April were revised down 15 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In May, the year-over-year change was 2.76 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.5% in May, from 62.7% in April. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.0% in May from 3.9% in April. This was well above consensus expectations; however, March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined.
A Jobs Report You’d Expect from an Economy Humming along in an Inflationary Environment by Wolf Richter -- Look, today’s jobs report shows why we don’t get too excited about the month-to-month squiggles in the jobs data (blue lines in the charts below). The labor market doesn’t turn around from one month to the next suddenly, unless something huge happens, such as Lehman or a lockdown. We’re paying closer attention to the three-month averages, which iron out some of those squiggles and include the revisions of prior data (red lines in the charts below). So today, the jobs report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics came out hot for May in terms of jobs created (272,000) and in terms of wage increases (4.9% annualized). They were hotter than “expected,” and stock futures tanked instantly when trading bots saw the headline because Wall Street wants a big-fat recession that would “force” the Fed to cut rates and end this horrible record QT and start QE all over again, but the economy is not cooperating with this dream. A month ago, the jobs report for April had come out a little cooler, with a revised 165,000 jobs created and wage increases of 2.8% annualized. It was hailed as the beginning of the infamous and long-prayed-for slowdown in the labor market that would “force” the Fed to cut rates, or whatever, and helped promote the surge in stock prices. But the three-month averages have been fairly steadfast for about a year showing what you’d expect from an economy that is moving along at a faster-than-normal clip, with higher-than-normal job creation, and with higher-than-normal wage increases documenting the inflationary environment that the economy is in. Over the past three months, including revisions, employers created 249,000 new jobs per month on average – so that’s a net increase in payrolls. It has been in this range all year. There was somewhat of a slowdown in the second half of 2023 that has now vanished. The three-month-average readings so far this year have been above or at the peak readings in the five years of the Good Times before the pandemic. For the US job market, these are big increases in employment. We can also see in the blue line how volatile the month-to-month data is and that it cannot be used as an indication of a trend – though that’s all the headlines are about. It just gives you whiplash: The total number of payroll jobs at employers rose to 158.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 2.76 million jobs (+1.8%). For the US economy over the past 20 years, these are substantial increases. No slowdown in sight either: Average hourly earnings increased by 4.9% annualized in May from April, the biggest increase since January, and the second biggest increase since July 2023, according to the BLS survey of employers today. But it came after the small increase of 2.8% in April, and a 4.6% increase in March (blue in the chart below). So the three-month average, which irons out some of those squiggles, rose by 4.1% annualized in May, well above the normal levels before the pandemic (there was only one month with higher readings in the five years before the pandemic, and the majority of readings were in the 2% to 3.5% range. So this speaks of higher inflation in the current economy. On an annual basis, average hourly earnings rose by 4.1%, a faster pace than in April (4.0%), and well above the five-year prepandemic range of 2.5% to 3.5%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a trove of data from its survey of households, including total employment (which include farm employment and self-employment), part-time employment, full-time employment, labor force, participation rates, unemployed, unemployment rates, etc. All of this data is based on household surveys that are then extrapolated to the population estimates by the Census Bureau. However, the Census Bureau has underestimated the mass-migration in 2022 and 2023, and has therefore underestimated the population growth, and overall population. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its population estimates, picked up on the huge wave of immigration by also including data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). It estimated that net immigration in 2022 was 2.67 million immigrants, and in 2023 was 3.3 million immigrants, the highest in its data going back to 2000, and about triple the average rate between 2000 and 2021 (1.05 million immigrants per year). In terms of population growth: CBO: 0.89% for 2022 and 1.14% for 2023, the highest since 2005. Census Bureau: 0.36% for 2022 and 0.49% for 2023. We discussed this in detail here: How the Huge Wave of Immigrants into the US in 2022 and 2023 Impacts the Employment Data of the BLS Household Survey
We have a serious problem: the two job surveys show two completely opposed economies - In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In particular: Yesterday I wrote that “I will be most interested to see if declines in manufacturing and housing under construction translate into a stall or even downturn in goods-producing employment, which has held up surprisingly well in the past year.” – This month they again increased, with no indication of any slowdown in trend. Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average, vs. a “soft landing” stabilization, and even whether the recent increase in monthly jobs numbers signifies a re-strengthening. – This was also answered plainly with no further deceleration at all. A look back shows average jobs gains holding basically steady, with the exception of last summer, for over 1 year. Based on the leading relationship of initial and continuing jobless claims, whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or whether there is further weakness. – This month’s increase completely contradicted both initial and continuing jobless claims, the unemployment rate increased again. Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, whether YoY wage growth would stabilize, or decline further. This month they increased from April’s 3 year low. There is a common thread in the above answers: the three good results all came from the Establishment Survey, which as we’ll see below, was very strong. The one very poor result came from the Household Survey, which for the third time in four months was frankly recessionary. Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 272,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 229,000. Government jobs increased by 43,000.
- March was revised downward by -5,000, and April was revised downward by -10,000, for a net decline of -15,000. This continues the pattern from nearly every month in the past 18 months of a steady drumbeat of downward net revisions.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an outright *decline* of -408,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, in this series only 376,000 jobs, or 0.2%, have been gained. This is not just the lowest YoY increase since the pandemic lockdowns, but with rare exception, it has always and only occurred during recessions.
- The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.0%, a new 2+ year high. Not only did the number of people employed decline, per the above, but the number unemployed rose by 157,000.
- The U6 underemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%, 0.9% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose 80,000 to 5.717 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
- The average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.2 hours to 40.8 hours, but is still down -0.7 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs rose 8,000.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose 3,500.
- Truck driving declined -5,400.
- Construction jobs increased 21,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 3,500 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 25,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another -14,100, and are down about -450,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 47,000 to 2,309,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.14, or +0.5%, to $29.99, for a YoY gain of +4.2%. This breaks, at least for this month, the pattern that YoY growth in wages have been sliding since their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose 0.4%, and is up 1.6% YoY.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.9%, and is up 5.8% YoY. These had been decelerating since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, but have stabilized so far this year, and are close to their highest YoY pace since last September. With the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 3.4%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continue to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Professional and business employment rose 33,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since last May, but in 4 of the last 5 months have resumed their increase.
- The employment population ratio declined -0.1% to 60.1%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate declilned -0.2% to 62.5%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This month’s report marked perhaps the strongest bifurcation yet between the Establishment and Household Surveys. Frequently they diverge, but this as if they were describing two diametrically opposed economies. The Establishment Survey was excellent. Not only were there top-line gains, but almost all of the leading sectors of employment – construction, manufacturing, goods production generally, and even the recent laggard of professional and business jobs – all rose significantly. Aggregate hours and payrolls also rose sharply. Wage growth improved. If anything, even beyond stabilization, there appears to have been some re-acceleration in job gains in recent months compared with late last year. Only temporary jobs – which appear to be undergoing a secular change – continued to decline. But then we turn to the Household Survey. The number employed was down, the number of unemployed up, resulting in the highest unemployment rate in over 2 years (although it has not triggered the “Sahm rule”). The number of recent job-losers also increased to a 2+ year high, but for one month (February). Both the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate declined further. In fact, in this report employment has only grown 1.8% since March 2022 (vs. 4.8% in the Establishment Survey), and has been in a slowly *declining* trend since last summer. At this point t is nearly certain that one of these two surveys is seriously in error. Normally that would be the Household Survey, which is much smaller and noisier. That at this point it is flatly contradicting the weekly jobless claims numbers – which are not surveys, but actual totals collected from all 50 States – also suggests that it is the Household Survey which is in error. But then we have the QCEW, which is also not a survey, but rather a census of almost all employers in the country, telling us that through Q3 of last year (its most recent report) the Establishment Survey was seriously overestimating job gains. And then we have withholding tax receipts – also not a survey, but an actual nationwide total – which over 8 months into this fiscal year are only 4.2% higher (and that’s nominal, before taking wage gains into account) than last year at the same time. Ultimately the data in the Establishment and Household Surveys are going to resolve. That is likely to occur when some fairly massive revisions in one or the other take place. It could be a big population revision in the Household Survey, or it could be that the QCEW is going to show more substantial weakness in Q4 of last year and/or Q1 of this year, which will then be incorporated into revisions in the Establishment Survey.I wish I could tell you that I knew. But I am afraid that we are simply going to have to wait.
Comments on May Employment Report – McBride - The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. The participation rate and employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%. Construction employment increased 21 thousand and is now 613 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: May Employment Report: 272 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in May to 83.6% from 83.5% in April, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.8% from 80.8% the previous month.Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in May. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 million from 4.47 million in April. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.4% from 7.4% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.350 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.250 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Through May 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 41 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline jobs number in the April employment report was well above expectations, however, March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%. Another strong report.
Map Shows One Weekend of Mass Shootings in America: 6 Dead, 64 Injured – Newsweekwww A wave of mass shootings over the first weekend of June left nine people dead and at least 64 injured across various American cities, according to the Gun Violence Archive, a website that tracks gun violence incidents nationwide.While there is no singular consensus on what constitutes a "mass shooting," the Archive defines it as: "a minimum of four victims shot, either injured or killed, not including any shooter who may also have been killed or injured in the incident."Using that definition, mass shootings took place in Akron, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; Newport News, Virginia; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and several other cities between Friday and Sunday. Most of the incidents happened at birthday parties and celebrations, while others occurred inside nightclubs and outside bars.Newsweek has created a map showing the locations of the weekend shootings.The shooting with the most casualties happened in Ohio early Sunday, where one person died, and 24 others were injured at a large birthday party. Akron Police Chief Brian Harding reported that the party had over 200 attendees earlier in the night. Police are investigating the circumstances and have not yet made any arrests.At around the same time, a five-hour drive south in Louisville, Kentucky, six teenagers were injured in a shooting at a party. No fatalies were reported.A nine-hour drive east, four people were injured in a drive-by shooting while returning home from a birthday party in Newport News, Virginia.In St. Louis, seven people were injured outside a bar near Fairground Park. Despite at least 90 shots being fired, no one was killed.In Pittsburgh, two people were killed and seven others injured in a shooting at a hookah bar in Penn Hills early Sunday morning.A separate incident in Columbus, Ohio, resulted in the death of a 39-year-old man and left three others injured in a shooting on the city's east side. No suspects have been identified.Philadelphia was the scene of at least two shootings over the weekend, leaving at least two people dead and several others injured.In Rock Hill, South Carolina, a neighborhood block party turned violent with two people killed and two others injured. A 44-year-old woman and a 21-year-old man died at the scene. Police are investigating.Another celebration in Lower Santan Village, outside Phoenix, Arizona, ended in tragedy when two people died and four were injured during a shooting at a teen birthday party. Tribal officers and civilians were among the injured.In Detroit, Michigan, at least nine people were shot in two separate shootings on Friday night going into Saturday morning.These instances of gun violence, over a single weekend at the start of summer — when shootings tend to spike — are among more than 192 mass shootings in the U.S. so far this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive.
CNN Provides Parenting Advice; What To Do If Your 4-Year-Old "Comes Out As Trans" -- CNN has a piece on its website offering advice for parents on what to do when children barely older than toddlers say they might be non binary or transgender. “When your kid comes out as trans, here’s what to do,” the column states before moving on to opinions provided by someone called Nova Bright-Williams, a trans identifying individual running something called the Trevor Project, a ‘crisis organization’ for LGBTQ+ children. “When your child tells you they’re trans, your first response should be to thank them for sharing and learning about their experience,” Bright-Williams says. Not entertaining the notion that a child with less than 1500 days life experience may have been born in the wrong body “could not only cause hurt and anger but also could ruin chances of a long-term relationship,” The report further advises. Parenting advice from @CNN: if your 4-year-old starts talking about gender identity, you need to listen. To the four-year-old. Who is 4. Years old.https://t.co/Qq4pbmRkvI The article offers a case study where a six year old asked questions such as “Mom, am I a boy? How do you know I’m a boy?” The mother told CNN “Once I clued in, I said, ‘The doctors make a best guess based on your body… but only you can know, and we love you no matter what.’” What? Doctors guess biological sex? Since when? The mother now just happens to head a organisation called Families United for Trans Rights, “an organization of transgender kids and their loved ones.” The article continues, “Her child’s questioning didn’t stop there. It marked the beginning of a yearslong (sic) evolution not just for her daughter, who came out as nonbinary at age 8 and transgender at 10.” The piece further notes “It was also a journey for Howland and her husband as they navigated what it means to be trans, ways of affirming their daughter’s gender identity, their responsibilities as parents, and the grief associated with “letting go of one idea of what our life is going to be,” Howland said.” CNN is making a habit out of this kind of content lately: Essentially this is yet another example of trans lobbyists partnering with corporate media to impose their deranged ideology on parents and children. If your 4 year old talks about gender identity, find out who has been talking to your 4 your old and stop it.
State laws threaten to erode academic freedom in US higher education • Ohio Capital Journal - Over the past few years, Republican state lawmakers have introduced more than 150 bills in 35 states that seek to curb academic freedom on campus. Twenty-one of these bills have been signed into law.This legislation is detailed in a new white paper published by the Center for the Defense of Academic Freedom, a project established by the American Association of University Professors, or AAUP. Taken together, this legislative onslaught has undermined academic freedom and institutional autonomy in five distinct and overlapping ways.
- 1. Academic gag orders. As detailed in the report, state legislators introduced 99 academic gag orders during legislative sessions in 2021, 2022 and 2023. All of the 10 gag orders signed into law were done so by Republican governors. These bills assert that teaching about structural racism, gender identity or unvarnished accounts of American history harm students. These gag orders are widely known as “divisive concept” or “anti-CRT” bills. CRT is an acronym for critical race theory, an academic framework that holds racism as deeply embedded in America’s legal and political systems. The partisan activists, such as Christopher Rufo, have used this term to generate a “moral panic” as part of a political response to the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. For example, in April 2022, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed House Bill 7, the “Stop Woke Act.” The law defines a “divisive concept” as any of eight vague claims. They include claims that “Such virtues as merit, excellence, hard work, fairness, neutrality, objectivity, and racial colorblindness are racist or sexist.” U.S. District Judge Mark Walker described this law as “positively dystopian.” He noted that the government’s own lawyers admitted that the law would likely make any classroom discussion concerning the merits of affirmative action illegal. The vague wording of these gag orders has a chilling effect, leaving many faculty unsure about what they can and cannot legally discuss in the classroom.
- 2. Bans on DEI programs. The expansion of diversity, equity and inclusion – or DEI – services on campus was a major outcome of the racial justice protests in 2020. By 2023, however, the legislative backlash was in full swing. Forty bills restricting DEI efforts were introduced during the 2023 legislative cycle, with seven signed into law.For example, Texas’ Senate Bill 17 drew directly from model policy language developed by Rufo and published by the Manhattan Institute, a right-wing think tank. SB 17 banned diversity statements and considerations in hiring. It also restricted campus diversity training and defunded campus DEI offices at Texas’ public universities.
- 3. Weakening tenure. Tenure was developed to shield faculty members from external political pressure. The protections of tenure make it possible for faculty to teach, research and speak publicly without fear of losing their jobs because their speech angers those in power. As detailed in the report, however, during the 2021, 2022 and 2023 legislative sessions, 20 bills were introduced, with two bills weakening tenure protections signed into law in Florida and another in Texas. In Florida, for example, SB 7044 created a system of post-tenure review, empowering administrators to review tenured faculty every five years. The law further empowers administrators to dismiss those whose performance is deemed unsatisfactory. The law also requires that faculty post course content in a public and searchable database.The AAUP criticized the law, noting that SB 7044 has “substantially weakened tenure in the Florida State University System and, if fully implemented as written,” would effectively “eliminate tenure protections.” Now even tenured faculty have reason to fear that what they teach might be construed as a “divisive concept,” as CRT, or as promoting DEI.
- 4. Mandating content. Lawmakers in several states have also passed legislation mandating viewpoint diversity, establishing new academic programs and centers to teach conservative content and shifting curricular decision-making away from the faculty. For example, Florida’s Senate Bill 266 expanded the Hamilton Center for Classical and Civic Education at the University of Florida, without faculty input or oversight. The original proposal for the Hamilton Center stated that the center’s goal was to advance “a conservative agenda” within the curriculum. SB 266 also gave the governing boards overseeing the university and college systems the authority to decide which classes count toward the core curriculum. This power was exercised in November 2023 after Manny Diaz, the education commissioner in Florida, requested that the boards remove an introduction to sociology course. He stated on social media that the discipline had been “hijacked by left-wing activists and no longer serves its intended purpose as a general knowledge course for students.”
- 5. Weakening accreditation. The accreditation process is an obscure area of academic governance whereby colleges and universities regularly subject themselves to external peer review. Nonprofit accrediting agencies conduct these institutional performance reviews. As detailed in the report, during the 2021-23 legislative cycles, six bills were introduced – three of them were passed into law – weakening the accreditation process, thereby making it easier for political interests to shape university policy. For example, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill’s accreditor, the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges, warned the school’s board of trustees that establishing the School of Civic Life and Leadership without faculty oversight and consultation raised serious concerns about institutional independence. The Legislature responded with Senate Bill 680, which would require that North Carolina public universities choose a different accrediting agency each accreditation cycle. Eventually passed as part of the omnibus House Bill 8, this policy allows schools to “shop” for an accrediting agency less likely to object to such political interference in the curriculum.
These five overlapping and reinforcing attacks on academic freedom and institutional autonomy threaten to radically transform public higher education in ways that serve the partisan interests of those in power.
21 Attorneys General Demand Revisions To Law School Admissions Standards -Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and attorneys general from 20 other states have called for significant revisions to the American Bar Association’s (ABA) Standards and Rules of Procedure for the Approval of Law Schools.The attorneys general claim in a letter that ABA standards direct law school administrators to violate both the Constitution and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibit employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national origin.Their demand comes in response to the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (SFFA), which ended the use of so-called affirmative action in higher education.“The rule of law cannot long survive if the organization that accredits legal education requires every American law school to ignore the Constitution and civil rights law,” Mr. Skrmetti said in a press release announcing the action.“The American Bar Association has long pursued the high calling of promoting respect for the law and the integrity of the legal profession, and we call on the organization to recommit to those ideals and ensure that its standards for law schools comport with federal law.“If the standards continue to insist on treating students and faculty differently based on the color of their skin, they will burden every law school in America with punitive civil rights litigation.”The coalition of attorneys general emphasized that the ABA’s current Standard 206 on Diversity and Inclusion is incompatible with the Supreme Court’s ruling.They argue that Standard 206, as it stands, not only encourages but mandates law schools to engage in race-based admissions and hiring practices, which the Court has deemed unconstitutional.
Columbia University settles lawsuit over unsafe environment amid campus protests -- Columbia University settled a lawsuit brought by a Jewish student alleging that the school did not provide “a safe educational environment” for students during recent pro-Palestinian protests at the school.The school agreed to take action, including designating “a specific person to act as a Safe Passage Liaison to serve as the designated point of contact for Columbia students with safety concerns as a result of protest activity” and allowing students who could not “complete key assignments or exams due to campus access restrictions related to demonstration activity on campus” and want “to seek an accommodation” to “submit a request for such accommodation to their respective instructor(s).”A spokesperson for Columbia said in an emailed statement to The Hill that the university is “pleased we’ve been able to come to a resolution and remain committed to our number one priority: the safety of our campus so that all of our students can successfully pursue their education and meet their academic goals.”In the original April complaint, the Jewish student alleged that from the beginning of a “Gaza Solidarity Encampment” on campus, she and other fellow Jewish students felt a rising risk of harassment and physical harm.“The encampment has been the center of round-the-clock harassment of Jewish students, who have been punched, shoved, spat upon, blocked from attending classes and moving freely about campus, and targeted by pro-terrorist hate speech –– both verbal and in written form on massive banners and signs –– with statements such as: ‘Death to the Jews’; ‘Long live Hamas’; ‘Globalize the Intifada,’ the lawsuit said.Earlier this year, pro-Palestinian protests broke out at many college campuses across the nation, most notably at Columbia. The protests faced accusations of antisemitism, which demonstrators pushed back on, and attracted the attention of multiple prominent politicians, including figures like House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.).“Now that we’ve helped restore basic principles of safety on Columbia’s campus, we’re excited to start real conversations about these issues: grounded in reality and informed by serious thought,” Jay Edelson, an attorney for the student, said in a press release.
Wayne State faculty, staff rally in defense of student anti-genocide protesters -- On Tuesday, June 4, some 150 people attended a rally at Wayne State University (WSU) in Detroit, Michigan where faculty and staff members read an open letter condemning a violent university-ordered police attack on a peaceful anti-genocide encampment. The week-long encampment on Wayne State campus, which professors described as “a welcoming place full of hospitality,” was organized around the demand the university divest from companies enabling and profiting from the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza. It was raided by police in riot gear at 5:30 in the morning on May 30. Twelve people were arrested, including six WSU students. “Police tackled demonstrators, even as they complied with police orders,” a member of the WSU Honors College faculty explained at the rally. She noted that the police “in at least one instance, forcibly removed a woman’s hijab.” She added, “One student was hospitalized,” concluding, “We condemn this in the strongest possible terms.” Professors and staff members read aloud an open letter addressed to WSU President Kimberly Andrews Espy and the Board of Governors condemning the attack. They issued a list of demands, including that any criminal charges against students be dropped and that no students be victimized by the university. As of Tuesday’s rally, the letter had been signed by 184 WSU faculty and staff members. “The university administration thought that by arresting students and harassing them, they would be intimidating them, intimidating us,” said a professor from the School of Medicine. “They didn’t know that behind those brave students there are many that are here to say: Hands off our students!”
Gaza strike expands to two more University of California campuses, as UAW bureaucracy promotes dead-end divestment strategy - The Gaza strike by academic workers at the University of California expanded Monday to UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara, adding thousands more to the strike which is now in its third week. UC Irvine is scheduled to join the strike Wednesday. The strike now encompasses six out of ten campuses in the UC system. Only two remaining campuses in session are not on strike—UC Riverside and UC San Francisco, the latter solely a graduate medical campus. The strike has spread in defiance of attempts by the UAW bureaucracy to limit it to one campus. Rank-and-file anger was such that it became clear that these campuses were prepared to walk without the official sanction of the UAW. In similar fashion, the UAW used a limited “stand-up” strike last year to force through a sellout in the auto industry, paving the way for mass layoffs. An undergraduate student at UCLA told the WSWS: The union leadership is obviously beholden to politics. You know, they donate millions to each political party every year. ... But the rank-and-file are the ones that really have the voice. They have the vote, they organize, and I'm sure that if the rank-and-file realize that the union leadership isn’t representing them, then they can supersede them, go above and beyond. Once UC Irvine begins striking on Wednesday, more than 30,000 workers across the state will have joined a political strike against the genocide in Gaza and the brutal police crackdowns on campuses. This significant development underscores the need for the working class, especially industrial workers, to become the basic and most powerful force against the war. The working class must mobilize to intervene with the methods of the class struggle, preparing industrial action to force an end to the police assaults and to the genocide. This also requires a rebellion against the union bureaucracy, which is totally integrated with the war plans of the administration of “Genocide Joe” Biden, whom the UAW has endorsed. Section of the protest encampment at UC Santa Barbara, June 3, 2024. A Ford worker at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan said: I’d tell the UC students, the stand-up strike is BS and we need to do a real strike. After the stand-up strike, they told us we won a record contract—but workers were fired and laid off. My friend at Stellantis said thousands of temporary workers were fired after they were promised full-time jobs. The arrests of students are unfair and all protesters have the right to freedom of speech. The UAW hasn’t said anything about the UC strike here, they haven’t put out any bulletins around the plant, so we didn’t know anything about it. The situation is urgent. The Israeli genocide of Gaza has now expanded into an all-out assault on Rafah, the last remaining urban area in the enclave which was previously declared to be a safe zone for refugees. And over the weekend, the White House approved the use of long-range missiles to strike targets deep within Russia, raising the danger of nuclear war. A postdoc researcher at UC Los Angeles spoke to the political and financial interests which dominate the universities: I think it’s very important that the workers are standing up against their employer if they don’t support the way the employer is acting. And yes, who’s our employer? The state. But to me it’s very strange to be here in this so-called public university that’s funded seven percent by the state. And there are a lot of interests coming from private people … And why should you be surprised [the administration cracks down on protests] if our public university is funded by some few percent from public money and the rest is the interests of private people, influential people? Because if you are the chancellor and you have to think about how you finance 90 percent of the university. I think there is a high difference between rich and poor, it’s the land of the free but the freedom is only for the rich. And there are powerful interests to keep it exactly like this. I’m a scientific researcher and I feel very privileged to be paid for doing that. But if I strike, it’s not that production is shut down … it’s different from shutting down production or shutting down the railroad system and that creates huge losses. If people who work in factories connect with academic workers who are in a similar situation as the workers of these companies and there is a communication among organizations, then it’s different.
“A chilling effect on the exercise of free speech rights”: University of California issues vindictive interim suspensions to student protesters -Thousands of students across the country and world have participated in protests on college campuses against the US-backed genocide in Gaza. The Biden administration has led a bipartisan police crackdown on campuses, which has resulted in more than 3,000 arrests nationwide. Meanwhile, universities have carried out academic interim suspensions as part of a two-pronged strategy to exert the maximum pressure and make an example out of protestors. Interim suspensions are severe measures traditionally reserved for students who are a threat to the safety of others on campus. A student is academically suspended and immediately banned from all university property and facilities. Receiving an interim suspension often results in a domino effect that entails the loss of access to dorms, causing homelessness; loss of access to campus health centers and pharmacies; cutting off healthcare and prescription medication. In the case of foreign students their academic visas can be revoked, which may result in deportation since their immigration status is dependent upon being actively enrolled in a specific university. The number of interim suspensions have skyrocketed in the last two months and are coupled with the denial of due process. While there have been dozens of campuses carrying out the punishing suspensions, there is a particular large concentration in the University of California system, where the crackdowns provoked strike action by academic workers. Walkouts are currently taking place at UC Santa Cruz, UC Davis, and UCLA, with campuses in San Diego, Santa Barbara and Irvine joining the strike this week. Last month, UC San Diego began issuing interim suspensions to students for simply being seen at the encampments. According to the UCSD Guardian, student and Assistant Vice President of the Office for Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion, Leticia Guzman, received notice of an interim suspension on May 2. The previous person who held that position, Cristian Fuentes Hernandez, received notice of interim suspension soon after, on May 5. The email notifying them of their suspensions explained that the university had obtained information that they were present at “the encampment that violates university policy,” and that, “The information described above, if true, provides cause to believe that your continued presence at UC San Diego is reasonably likely to lead to physical harm to any person or property, threats of violence, conduct that threatens the health or safety of any person, or other disruptive activity incompatible with the orderly operation of the campus.” The following day, on May 6, around 200 police officers aggressively raided the encampment using pepper spray and arresting more than 60 people, 40 of whom were students. In making clear their endorsement of this police crackdown, UCSD Chancellor Pradeep K. Khosla said, “UC San Diego encourages and allows peaceful protests, but this encampment violated campus policy and the law, and grew to pose an unacceptable risk to the safety of the campus community.” Immediately following this attack, UCSD announced that every one of the 40 students that were arrested would face an automatic interim suspension, in addition to the other interim suspensions quietly handed out to students for simply being present at the encampment. In contrast, only 16 interim suspensions were handed out all of last year. The 60 arrested faced charges of unlawful assembly, with 39 charged with unauthorized encroachment on public land, 34 charged with resisting arrest, 17 charged for violating UC San Diego curfew laws, and four with camping on university property.
US maternal mortality rate the highest among high-income countries -The release of a critical report by The Commonwealth Funds this week only further underscores the decrepit state of healthcare in the United States, the center of world capitalism. The study, titled “Insight into the US Maternal Mortality Crisis: An International Comparison,” found that in 2022 maternal mortality for the US at 22.3 maternal deaths for every 100,000 live births continues to be the highest among high-income nations. And as the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has previously noted, more than four in five of these deaths could have been prevented. By comparison, Chile and New Zealand, the next closest countries in this category, are substantially lower at 14.3 and 13.6 deaths per 100,000, respectively. For many European Union nations, the rates are three-fold lower. In Norway, the maternal mortality rate in 2022 reached zero deaths per 100,000. Although the US figures are down considerably from their 2021 highs at 32.9 deaths per 100,000 (a 33 percent decline), this has more to do with the decline in rates of COVID deaths among pregnant women. Numerous studies indicated that COVID significantly contributed to preeclampsia, preterm births, stillbirths and other adverse outcomes. Still, when compared to 2020, when the rate was 23.8 maternal deaths, the figures have remained essentially unchanged since the pre-pandemic period.Perhaps what is most remarkable is that 65 percent of these deaths occur after delivery. Twelve percent occur in the first week after birth. Contributing factors during this early period include severe bleeding, elevated blood pressures and infections. Another 23 percent of deaths take place between days seven and 42, while 30 percent are in the late postpartum period, between days 43 and 365. Causes for these deaths are usually attributable to a condition called cardiomyopathy, when the heart muscles grow weak.Researchers have been scratching their heads to identify the causes for these alarming outcomes. Certainly, conditions like obesity and other chronic diseases compounded by increasing cesarean sections have contributed to severe maternal comorbidities. However, as Dr. Lindsay Admon, an obstetrician-gynecologist at the University of Michigan Medical School, told Scientific American, “Focusing too narrowly on demographics, labor and delivery paints an incomplete picture of maternal health.”
Placing COVID patients in skilled nursing facilities led to increased cases, deaths, study finds -- Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, some states allowed COVID-19 patients to be discharged from hospitals to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and even offered financial incentives to SNFs to take in patients to deal with hospital bed shortages."The potential human cost of these policies continues to be controversial," the authors wrote. "Some observers have argued that the policies had little impact, while other observers have blamed admissions for seeding or worsening COVID-19 outbreaks in SNFs." Now a study in JAMA Internal Medicine shows this practice led to preventable COVID-19 cases in the SNFs and increased death rates. Furthermore, SNFs that reported staff and personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages saw bigger increases in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The study was conducted by comparing matched groupings of 264 SNFs with initial admission of COVID-19–positive patients (exposed facilities) and 518 comparator SNFs without initial admission (control facilities) from June 2020 to March 2021. Outcomes were assessed during a 15-week follow-up period.The authors found that exposed SNFs had a cumulative increase of 6.94 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.91 to 10.98) additional COVID-19 cases per 100 residents compared with control SNFs, a 31.3% increase.Exposed facilities saw 2.31 (95% CI, 1.39-3.24) additional cumulative COVID-19–related deaths per 100 residents compared with control facilities, representing a 72.4% increase compared with the sample mean (SD) of 3.19. The authors defined PPE shortage as less than a 7-day supply of N95 respirators or surgical masks. Facilities with PPE shortages had an additional 14.81 [95% CI, 2.38 to 27.25] cases per 100 residents compared with those without such shortages. In an invited commentary, James S. Goodwin, MD, and Huiwen Xu, PhD, said the findings of the study should result in outrage. Even in the earliest days of the pandemic, state public health leaders knew SNFs were unprepared to quarantine patients with COVID-19, they said, with inadequate staff, space, PPE, training, and protocols.Also the earliest and deadliest outbreaks in the United States were occurring in nursing facilities, they wrote. In the first months of the pandemic, half of the nation's deaths occurred in nursing homes, even though they housed only 0.4% of US citizens."To the question, 'What else could we have done?' the answer is anything but this, anything but a move that fed the flames of the pandemic, creating more infections, more hospitalizations, and more deaths," Goodwin and Xu wrote.
Report: More than 200 symptoms tied to long COVID -Today a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine presents a number of conclusions about long-COVID diagnosis, symptoms, and impact on daily function, including that the condition can cause more than 200 symptoms, and that a positive COVID-19 test is not necessary to make a long-COVID diagnosis.The findings are meant to guide the Social Security Administration (SSA) and are published one week before the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine is set to offer a new single definition of long COVID that can be used across US governmental groups as a way to streamline treating the condition in the years to come."This report offers a comprehensive review of the evidence base for how Long COVID may impact a patient's ability to engage in normal activities, such as going to work, attending school, or taking care of their families," said Victor J. Dzau, MD, president of the National Academy of Medicine, in a National Academies press release. "Its findings will be useful to anyone attempting to understand how Long COVID may affect the millions of people in the U.S. who have reported symptoms."According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 5.3% of Americans currently have long COVID, with a significant proportion of those experiencing disability from the condition.In today's report, more than 200 symptoms are formally listed as possible signs of long COVID, affecting every organ system. Women are twice as likely to men to experience long COVID, but people who have never received a diagnosis or even a positive COVID-19 test may be experiencing symptoms of the condition.Though people with mild or even asymptomatic cases of acute COVID can develop long COVID, the report recognizes that people whose infection required hospitalization are two to three times more likely to experience long COVID than are those who were not hospitalized.Emphasized throughout the report is the similarity long COVID has to other chronic conditions, including myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), fibromyalgia, and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS).Like those conditions there is no current way to treat long COVID, though long COVID does have a better prognosis than does ME/CFS.
Early use of antivirals linked to reduced risk of long COVID - A meta-analysis of nine observational studies published late last week in the Journal of Infection shows that early use of oral antiviral drugs reduced the risk of long COVID, or post-COVID condition (PCC), by 23%, and Paxlovid may perform better than molnupiravir.In total the nine studies included 866,066 patients, in which Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, or MMV-r) and molnupiravir were evaluated in eight and two studies, respectively.While antivirals have been approved to use in the acute phase of illness to prevent progression to severe disease in at-risk populations, the potential use of the drugs as a way to prevent long COVID has drawn recent attention.In the study, the patients were not hospitalized, and early use was defined as within 5 days of COVID-19 diagnosis for most studies and within 30 days of symptom onset in one study, and it was not mentioned in two studies.Studies defined long COVID differently, with five measuring PCC outcomes as symptoms 30 days after diagnosis, and four defining the condition as symptoms persisting 90 days after diagnosis.Overall early oral antiviral drugs reduced long-COVID risk 23% (risk ratio [RR] 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.88), regardless of age or sex.Paxlovid and molnupiravir subgroups had RRs of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.88) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.94), respectively—reductions of 24% and 12%—compared to no antiviral drug treatment."Our mixed evidence comparing two oral antiviral drugs using a network meta-analysis suggests a possible benefit of NMV-r over molnupiravir in reducing PCC risk," the authors wrote. Long COVID has emerged as a major feature of the COVID-19 landscape, with incidence rates estimated to be 10% to 30% and 50% to 70% among non-hospitalized and hospitalized patients with COVID-19 worldwide, the authors said.
Paxlovid fails to improve long COVID symptoms in small study - Using the popular COVID antiviral Paxlovid failed to significantly improve symptoms in 155 patients experiencing moderate to severe long COVID, according to a study published today in JAMA Internal Medicine. The findings are part of the STOP-PASC trial, and the study was conducted at Stanford University from November 2022 to September 2023. All enrollees reported at least 3 months of postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) symptoms. The participants were randomized at a rate of 2:1 to treatment with oral nirmatrelvir- ritonavir (Paxlovid) or with placebo twice daily for 15 days. Paxlovid is given as a 5-day course of pills during acute COVID-19 infections to prevent disease progression in those at risk of moderate to severe complications from the virus. Some recent studies have suggested that using the antiviral during the acute phase of infection lowered risk of later developing long COVID. This is the first study to formally look at Paxlovid as a treatment in patients with established long COVID. The average age of participants was 42 years, and 153 of 155 reported having the primary COVID-19 vaccine series. The mean time between index SARS-CoV-2 infection and randomization was 17.5 months. At 10 weeks post-intervention, participants were assessed on six main areas of long COVID symptoms: fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, body aches, gastrointestinal symptoms, and cardiovascular symptoms. Participants were asked to rate the severity of each symptom in the past 7 days. Although a 15-day course of Paxlovid was found to be safe, it didn't demonstrate a significant benefit in improving symptoms.
Excess death rates due to pandemic persisted in Western countries New COVID-19 excess death rate estimates from 47 countries show that rates remained high for 3 consecutive pandemic years."Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns," the authors wrote.The study, published yesterday in BMJ Public Health, assessed people who died from any cause above and beyond what would normally be expected from January 2020 to December 2022 in 47 countries in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand. Death rates were compared to historical death data in each country from 2015 until 2019, and matched by both week and month.In total, the number of excess deaths in the 47 countries was 3,098,456 from January 1, 2020, until December 31, 2022. In 2020, 1,033,122 excess deaths were recorded, and that number rose in 2021 to 1,256, 942 excess deaths despite containment measures and widespread use of vaccine in Western countries.That was 14% more deaths than expected."In 2022, the year in which most containment measures were lifted and COVID-19 vaccines were continued, preliminary available data counts 808,392 excess deaths," the authors wrote. Forty-one countries reported excess deaths in 2020, 42 in 2021, and 43 in 2022. The only country to not report excess deaths from 2020 through 2022 was Greenland. "Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality and evaluate their health crisis policies," the authors concluded.
FDA panel supports switch to JN.1 for fall COVID vaccines - Vaccine advisers to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today recommended switching the SARS-CoV-2 strain from the XBB.1.5 variant to JN.1 for fall vaccine formulations.The recommendation marks the third remake for the COVID vaccine since 2022. The measure unanimously passed, 16 to 0. FDA officials, concerned about further evolution of JN.1, also asked the group to discuss the possibility of recommending an offshoot of JN.1, such as KP.2, that may more closely match currently circulating strains. The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) was originally slated to meet on May 16 but postponed its discussion until today to allow time to gather more surveillance data and other information so that the group has the most up-to-date information.JN.1 became the dominant strain in the United States at the end of 2023, but it continues to evolve. Offshoots such as KP.2 and KP.3—now overshadowing the parent virus—have an immune-evasive spike mutation combination that added more complexity to strain-selection considerations. Scientists have nicknamed the spike mutations FLiRT (F for L at position 456 and R for T at position 346).The JN.1 FLiRT variants are partly responsible for case rises in some countries, with early US indicators showing a slight uptick from very low illness levels.In late April, the World Health Organization vaccine advisory group recommended a switch to a monovalent (single-strain) vaccine that contains the JN.1 antigen.At today's meeting, VRBPAC members heard from experts at the FDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and vaccine manufacturers. Ahead of the vote, Jerry Weir, PhD, who directs the viral products division in the FDA's vaccines research office, said nonclinical data from three vaccine manufacturers suggest that updated JN.1 lineage formulations prompt stronger neutralizing antibody responses against JN.1-descendant lineage viruses than the current monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine. He also said serology data from people infected with JN.1 show improved antibody responses against JN.1 lineages, compared with sera from XBB-infected people, though neutralizing antibody responses appear to be reduced by recent mutations in many JN.1 lineage viruses.After the vote, FDA officials asked advisory group members to weigh in on whether to select a specific JN.1 lineage, such as KP.2During earlier presentations, a representative from Novavax said the company is already working on a JN.1 vaccine and that a switch to a newer lineage may mean the company won't be able to produce vaccine in time for the US market. Protein-based vaccines have longer manufacturing timelines—about 6 months, which is similar to flu vaccines—than mRNA vaccines do.
Study shows no link between stillbirths, COVID-19 vaccines - A new study from Yale researchers in Obstetrics and Gynecology shows no link between stillbirth and COVID-19 vaccines. Moreover, pregnant women who had received COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy were at a decreased risk of preterm birth.The authors say the findings should offer further reassurance that COVID-19 vaccination is safe and useful in pregnancy."The results of this robust case-control study can be used to reassure both pregnant patients and health care professionals that COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy is not associated with an increased risk of pregnancy loss," said study author Anna Denoble, MD, in a press release.The study was based on outcomes seen in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, and compared receipt of the vaccine among women who had stillbirths or fetal death after 20 weeks gestation and those who had live births.A total of 55,591 people were included, and 23,517 (42.3%) received one or two mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses during pregnancy.Overall, 38.4% of patients experiencing stillbirth received a COVID-19 vaccine in pregnancy compared with 39.3% of those with live births.For pre-term birth, vaccinated women had a rate of 6.4 per 100, compared to 7.7 per 100 for unvaccinated. COVID-19 vaccines were not associated with preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, or small-for-gestational age neonates."Results from this study provide additional evidence regarding the safety of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine administration during pregnancy, the authors concluded.
N95 respirator gets top billing in stopping SARS-CoV-2 viral leakage into the air - Researchers who compared the ability of cloth and surgical masks and KN95 and N95 respirators to impede SARS-CoV-2 leakage into the environment show that the "duckbill" N95 won handily, stopping 98% of the virus that causes COVID-19.A University of Maryland (UMD) research team, which published the findings last week in eBioMedicine, collected breath samples from volunteers with community-acquired COVID-19 infections starting in May 2020. "The highly transmissible nature of rapidly emerging Omicron variants in the setting of high rates of vaccination and prior infection underscores the critical role of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as wearing face masks, to reduce inhalation (airborne) transmission of the virus by reducing the amount of virus in the air," the study authors wrote. Each volunteer provided two 30-minute breath samples on the same day, wearing a face covering for the first half of the session and then wearing no face covering for the other half. Some returned for a second session with other face coverings.While providing breath samples, participants completed repeated vocalizations such as saying the alphabet, singing "Happy Birthday," and shouting. After completing a session while wearing a mask or respirator, they completed the same process while wearing no face covering.Of the 44 volunteers, and 43% were women. Participants wearing a respirator with a nose clip were instructed to pinch it to fit their nose, and those wearing an N95 respirator were told to place one strap around their neck and the other atop their head. No other training was given, and fit-testing wasn't conducted to ensure a good fit on the face. Respirators, though, conform more tightly to the face than do cloth or surgical (medical) masks. During the masked part of the sessions from June 2020 to December 2021, volunteers wore either their own mask (mostly cloth masks made with a wide variety of materials of sometimes unknown brands and sources) or a Kimberly-Clark Professional Kimtech M3 mask for their first research visit. If they returned for a second visit, they wore the other type of mask. In December 2021, the researchers switched from testing cloth masks to Powecom KN95 respirators but also allowed volunteers to provide their own KN95s. Participants were randomly assigned to wear a surgical mask or KN95 in the masked part of their first research visit and the other option if they returned a second time. In March 2022, inexpensive ACI 3120 Surgical N95 duckbill respirators from Armbrust USA were added to the testing mix. Volunteers were randomly assigned to wear either a surgical mask or a KN95 or N95 at their first visit until March 10, when the team stopped testing surgical masks. Starting on March 11, only N95s were tested. All masks and respirators reduced exhaled virus at least 70%, but the duckbill N95 reduced SARS-CoV-2 load 98% (95% confidence interval [CI], 97% to 99%) and performed significantly better than cloth or surgical masks or KN95s. Cloth masks impeded more virus than surgical masks and KN95s. The study didn't test the face coverings as wearer protection against SARS-CoV-2 in the surrounding air. "These results suggest that N95 respirators could be the standard of care in nursing homes and healthcare settings when respiratory viral infections are prevalent in the community and healthcare-associated transmission risk is elevated," the authors wrote.
4 years later, COVID remains a year-round threat. Here's why this virus isn't seasonal quite yet | CBC News --A cursory glance at Canada's wastewater trends for COVID-19 reveals a messy, unpredictable picture: Viral loads ebb and flow all throughout the year, at different times, in different cities.While SARS-CoV-2 is now a familiar threat, the virus isn't neatly seasonal. It still circulates year-round, humming in the background. And for the fifth year in a row, some scientists are bracing for the possibility of a small summer wave.That reality might come as a surprise to anyone who hoped this virus would quickly join the typical colder-weather cold and flu season, offering a break from COVID infections over the warmer months. But we're not quite there yet."When you look at the other four coronaviruses — the cause of 25 per cent of our common colds — they do have this really stark seasonality," said infectious diseases specialist Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. "But we don't know how long it took for them to settle into that pattern."SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, is still in its infancy. And its spike protein, which allows the virus to penetrate our cells and cause infections, keeps mutating at a brisk pace."This is a virus that was never known to infect humans before 2019, so it's still a lot of evolutionary pressure, especially with the immunity that people have developed," Adalja said.Close watchers of SARS-CoV-2's ongoing evolution are tracking several new variants, all growing more dominant in recent months. The JN.1 group remains the dominant form of the virus in Canada, while KP.2 and KP.3 — among the lineages nicknamed "FLiRT" by some scientists, after the technical names for specific genetic mutations — and LB.1 are all showing signs of growth, Public Health Agency of Canada data shows (PHAC). All of them are offshoots of Omicron, the variant that sparked a massive wave of infections midway through the pandemic. This still-circulating family of viruses remains more contagious than earlier forms, with spike protein mutations that help bypass the protection offered by vaccines or prior infections — ensuring people can get reinfected over and over."We've had nothing but Omicron for about two years," said Adalja. "That lineage is still trying to find the optimal combination to infect people, and there's always going to be some evolution going on.… It's still at a high enough pace that seasonality is not quite as predictable as people would like it to be."While the results of nationwide tests suggest low circulation of common respiratory viruses such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in recent weeks, SARS-CoV-2 levels rose over several weeks until late May, says the most recent PHAC respiratory virus report.
Quick Takes: US COVID-19 levels, H5N1, and Polio | CIDRAP
- The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show upticks in some markers the agency uses to track COVID-19, though overall activity remains muted. According to the CDC's COVID Data Tracker, test positivity is up 0.4% from the previous week and now at 4.5%, while the percentage of emergency department visits diagnosed with COVID rose by 16.2% and is at 0.5% overall. No changes were seen in the two severity indicators, hospitalizations and deaths, which both remain at low levels. COVID wastewater levels also remain low, but high levels are being reported in the West and in Florida. Variant proportion estimates show the JN.1 offshoots KP.3 and KP.2 now account for 47% of sequenced samples, up from 41.2% the previous week, while LB.1 makes up 14.9%.
- The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development today announced the detection of H5N1 avian influenza in a dairy herd in Clinton County, the 25th effected dairy herd in the state. The outbreak total now stands at 87 herds in 11 states. Also today, the CDC posted updated recommendations for symptom monitoring in people exposed to H5N1-infected birds, cattle, or other animals. The guidelines call for local or state health departments to monitor symptoms in exposed farm workers for 10 days after exposure. "Monitoring exposed individuals can help to rapidly identify human cases, provide appropriate treatment, prevent onward spread, and help understand the scope of human risk," the agency said.
- New polio cases were reported in three countries this week, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Afghanistan and Pakistan each recorded one wild poliovirus type (WPV1) case, the fourth WPV1 case reported in each country this year. Also, Niger reported one circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case, its second case this year.
Early safety data on RSV vaccines show rare Guillain-Barre cases - Late last week in Mrbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers published the first clinical safety data on Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccines, the first approved respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines, and found real-world data mimics what was seen in trials, including a very small increased risk in Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). GBS is an immune system disorder that occurs when the immune system attacks nerves. It is characterized by numbness and tingling in the body, including paralysis. GBS can follow bacterial or viral infections, and, rarely, following vaccination. Arexvy and Abrysvo, made by GSK and Pfizer, respectively, were approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in May 2023 for use in adults 60 and older to prevent RSV infections. From August 4, 2023, to March 30, 2024, at least 10.6 million US adults aged 60 years and older received a recommended RSV vaccine. The study is based on reports made to both V-safe and the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) from May 3, 2023, through April 14, 2024. "Among the 16,220 V-safe participants aged ≥60 years who reported receiving an RSV vaccine and completed one or more daily surveys, 39.0% reported at least one symptom after vaccination; 0.4% of participants reported receiving medical care," the authors said. Over ninety percent of events in VAERS were classified as nonserious. However, VAERS included 28 reports of GBS that met case definition, including 11 (39.3%) after Arexvy vaccine (1.5 reports per 1 million doses administered), and 17 (60.3%) after Abrysvo (5.0 reports per 1 million doses administered).
1 in 4 US adults mistakenly believe MMR vaccine causes autism, survey reveals -- Despite no evidence that the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine causes autism, a quarter of US adults still think it does, and the false belief is fueling rising measles cases amid falling vaccination rates, finds a survey by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC)."The persistent false belief that the MMR vaccine causes autism continues to be problematic, especially in light of the recent increase in measles cases," APPC Director Kathleen Hall Jamieson, PhD, said in a center press release. "Our studies on vaccination consistently show that the belief that the MMR vaccine causes autism is associated not simply with reluctance to take the measles vaccine but with vaccine hesitancy in general."In April 2024, APPC scientists surveyed more than 1,500 adults about measles transmission, symptoms, and vaccination recommendations for pregnant women.In total, 24% of adults said that they don't believe the MMR vaccine doesn't cause autism, and another 3% weren't sure. Nearly 6 in 10 participants understood that measles spreads through coughing, sneezing, and touching their face after contact with contaminated surfaces, while more than 1 in 5 (22%) incorrectly said it can be sexually contracted. Only 12% of respondents correctly indicated that an infected person can spread the measles virus for 4 days before a rash appears—12% thought it was 1 week, and 55% weren't sure. Fewer than 4 in 10 panelists correctly indicated that measles is a risk factor for premature birth and low birth weight, and only 1 in 10 knew that pregnant women shouldn't receive the measles vaccine because it contains a weakened live form of the virus and therefore may pose a risk to the fetus.
Long delay in antibiotic administration increases mortality risk in kids with sepsis -- A study of pediatric sepsis patients suggests long delays in initiation of antibiotic therapy increase the risk of mortality, researchers reported yesterday in JAMA Network Open.The study, which used data from 51 US children's hospitals, found that children with sepsis who received antibiotics more than 5.5 hours after emergency department (ED) arrival had a more than three-fold increase in the odds of sepsis-attributable 3- and 30-day mortality.The study authors say the findings support guideline recommendations for timely antibiotic administration in pediatric sepsis patients. For the study, a team of researchers from US children's hospitals analyzed data from the Children's Hospital Association's Improving Pediatric Sepsis Outcomes (IPSO) quality-improvement collaborative, which maintains a database of pediatric patients treated for sepsis—the leading cause of death in children worldwide. Sepsis occurs when the immune system overreacts to an infection, triggering a chain of events that can lead to tissue damage, organ failure, and death. The collaborative's goal is to reduce pediatric sepsis mortality in children's hospitals by emphasizing earlier recognition and treatment. Although not all cases of sepsis are caused by bacteria, early antibiotic administration is a core feature of timely sepsis management. The Pediatric Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines recommend antibiotic administration within 1 hour of recognition of septic shock and within 3 hours of recognition of sepsis-associated organ dysfunction without shock. While the importance of timely antibiotics is not in question, the researchers note, a precise understanding of timeliness has not been established for children. Their aim was to determine how long antibiotic administration can be delayed before there is a change in sepsis-attributable mortality rates.Participants in the retrospective study included patients aged 29 days to 18 years who had sepsis recognized within 1 hour of ED arrival from 2017 through 2021. The 1-hour cutoff time was chosen to minimize the impact of delayed sepsis recognition on outcomes. The primary outcome was sepsis-attributable 3-day mortality. The secondary outcome was sepsis-attributable 30-day mortality.A total of 19,515 sepsis patients were included in the study (median age, 6 years). The median time to antibiotic administration was 69 minutes. The sepsis-attributable mortality rate among the entire cohort was less than 1%."Overall, sepsis was recognized quickly, and IV [intravenous] antibiotics and fluids were administered promptly," the study authors wrote.The analysis found that the estimated time to antibiotic administration at which 3-day mortality increased was 330 minutes. For patients who received antibiotics in less than 330 minutes, sepsis-attributable mortality was 0.5% at 3 days and 0.9% at 30 days. For those who received antibiotics at 330 minutes or later, 3-day and 30-day sepsis-attributable mortality was 1.2% and 2.0%, respectively. In an adjusted analysis, antibiotic administration at 330 minutes or later was associated with increased odds of sepsis-attributable mortality at 3 days (odds ratio [OR], 3.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 9.93) and 30 days (OR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.59 to 8.30) compared with antibiotics given before 330 minutes.
Study ties prevalence of drug-resistant organisms to socioeconomic conditions --A study in Texas found higher rates of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) organisms in areas with higher levels of economic deprivation, researchers reported today in Clinical Infectious Diseases.Using electronic health records from two large healthcare systems in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, a team led by researchers from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center collected select patient bacterial culture results from 2015 to 2020. They chose five AMR organisms to represent potential community- and healthcare-associated acquisition, used residential addresses to geocode cultures and link them to socioeconomic index values, and identified geographic clusters of high and low AMR organism prevalence.Among the 43,677 unique cultures collected, 43.5% were identified as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), 31% as extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)–producing organisms, 11.3% as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales, 8.2% as vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus, and 5.9% as AmpC beta-lactamase producers. Significant clusters of all five organisms were found in areas with high levels of economic deprivation, as measured by the area deprivation index (ADI), and there was significant spatial autocorrelation between ADI and AMR prevalence.The strongest correlation was observed for MRSA and AmpC, with 14% and 13%, respectively, of the variability in prevalence rates attributed to their relationship with the ADI values of the neighboring locations.The study authors say several factors could explain why AMR organisms are more prevalent in areas with greater socioeconomic disparities. For example, people in areas with higher ADI may have poorer sanitation due to utility disruptions or poor plumbing and therefore be more likely to be exposed to bacteria, or may live in overcrowded settings that can contribute to the spread of infection. The practice of sharing "leftover" antibiotics with friends and family could also select for resistant organisms.While further research is needed to delineate the relationship, they say the findings highlight the importance of addressing these disparities.
Report describes emerging sexually transmitted fungal infection -A case report published today in JAMA Dermatology highlights concerns about a sexually transmitted fungal infection that belongs to a family of skin infections that are emerging in the United States. The report describes a New York man in his 30s who developed tinea (ringworm) on his groin, genitalia, arms, and legs following travel in Europe (England and Greece) and California. The man reported multiple male sex partners while traveling, none of whom had similar manifestations, and visited a sauna before developing lesions. After a skin biopsy demonstrated dermatophytosis, the man was treated with the antifungal fluconazole weekly for 4 weeks with no response. Sequencing of fungal samples from the lesions revealed the infection was caused by Trichophyton mentagrophytes type VII (TMVII), a sexually transmitted fungus that's been reported in patients who had contact with commercial sex workers in Southeast Asia and appears to be circulating locally among men who have sex with men in Europe. The patient was treated with terbafine for 6 weeks, with improvement, then transitioned to itraconazole for persistent infection. "Healthcare providers should be aware that Trichophyton mentagrophytes type VII is the latest in a group of severe skin infections to have now reached the United States," lead study author Avrom Caplan, MD, a dermatologist at New York University Grossman School of Medicine, said in a university press release.A report published in the same journal in May described 11 tinea cases in New York that were caused byTrichophyton indotinea, linked to travel to Southeast Asia, and resistant to first-line antifungals. Caplan and his co-authors say that while the number of cases is small, dermatologists should be on the alert for signs of TMVII and T indotinea."Since patients are often reluctant to discuss genital problems, physicians need to directly ask about rashes around the groin and buttocks, especially for those who are sexually active, have recently traveled abroad, and report itchy areas elsewhere on the body," said senior study author John Zampella, MD.
Global mpox activity continues at low level except in DR Congo hot spot ---level mpox transmission continues across the world, though reported cases continue to decline, underestimating of the true burden of the disease, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latestsituation report, which covers illness reported in April. The WHO received reports of 528 new cases in April, down 21.1% from March. Regions reporting the most cases were the Americas, followed by Africa and Europe. Most of Africa's cases were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which is experiencing an ongoing outbreak due to a novel clade 1 virus.Overall risk is moderate in countries and neighboring countries where mpox has historically circulated and is also moderate for people in the highest-risk groups, including men who have sex with men and sex workers, the WHO said. However, the risk is high for the general population in the DRC.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported two more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in Minnesota, both involving commercial turkey farms in Stearns County, located in the central part of the state. One facility houses 32,400 turkeys, and the other farm has 43,300 birds. Three other outbreaks were recently reported at turkey farms in the same county. Sporadic outbreaks in poultry flocks continue in the United States, including in Iowa, which reported two recent outbreaks at commercial farms.In separate updates, APHIS reported 22 more H5N1 detections in wild birds, several of which were agency-harvested birds in New Mexico's Roosevelt County, which included positive findings in house sparrows, two doves, a tanager, and a grackle. Detections from other states mainly involved raptors found dead, including bald eagles in Maryland, North Carolina, Minnesota, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. APHIS also reported 13 more H5N1 detections in mammals, which mostly involved house mice from New Mexico's Roosevelt County. The new reports included a red fox from New Mexico and a domestic cat from Michigan's Clinton County.
Cucumbers Recalled Nationwide Due to Salmonella Risk -- There’s an active recall on cucumbers distributed to 14 states, according to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).1 This is due to a possible Salmonella contamination. Dark green American cucumbers ranging from 5 to 9 inches long are impacted. This recall does not include mini cucumbers and English cucumbers. The affected cucumbers were shipped from May 17 through May 21 directly to retail distribution centers, wholesalers and food service distributors in the following states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. While it is unlikely that these cucumbers were sold to consumers due to the short timeframe, the FDA is investigating if this recall is connected to an ongoing Salmonella outbreak investigation. This recall was announced after the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture reported a product sample tested positive for the Salmonella bacteria. Common symptoms of Salmonella infection include fever, stomach cramps, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.2 Although the recalled cucumbers have not been distributed since May 21, signs of infection may not show for up to 6 days after consumption, and symptoms can last from 4 to 7 days. Talk to your healthcare provider immediately if you’re experiencing the above symptoms after recently eating a cucumber.
CDC: Cucumber-linked Salmonella outbreak sickens 162 in 25 states, Washington DC -- A Salmonella outbreak linked to contaminated Florida-grown cucumbers has sickened 162 people, 54 of them requiring hospitalization, in 25 states and Washington, DC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in an outbreak notice yesterday. Of the 65 people interviewed, 72% reported eating cucumbers. No deaths have been reported. Testing identified Salmonella Africana in a cucumber collected as part of the investigation, and Fresh Start Produce Sales, Inc. issued a recall. The CDC is conducting further testing to determine whether the bacterial strain is the same one that is causing the illness and whether other cucumbers are also involved in the outbreak.The cucumbers, sold in bulk to retail distribution centers, wholesalers, and food-service distributors in 14 states from May 17 to 21, may have then been shipped to additional states or repackaged for sale in stores.States that received shipments are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois (no cases reported), Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia (no cases). Other states reporting cases in the outbreak are Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Rhode Island, and Texas, as well as Washington DC.Because the cucumbers were recalled, they should no longer be in stores. The grower that likely supplied the cucumbers is done growing and harvesting for the season. The recall doesn't include English cucumbers or mini-cucumbers.The CDC urges consumers not to eat any recalled cucumbers they have at home. If unsure whether the cucumbers are part of the recall, consumers can call the store where they were purchased. Any surfaces that may have been contaminated should be washed with hot, soapy water or run through the dishwasher.Anyone who experiences severe Salmonella symptoms should call their healthcare provider. These symptoms include diarrhea and a fever higher than 102°F, diarrhea lasting longer than 3 days, bloody diarrhea, severe vomiting, and signs of dehydration (eg, low urination, dry mouth and throat, dizziness).
Previous Zika infection tied to increased risk of infection with some dengue virus subtypes -- Primary Zika virus (ZIKV) infection raised the risk of disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV) 3 serotype and DENV4—but not DENV1—in a cohort of Nicaraguan children, a finding that held true for those infected with DENV before ZIKV but not for those infected with ZIKV before DENV, according to a new study in Science Translational Medicine.Scientists at the Sustainable Sciences Institute in Managua, Nicaragua, and their US colleagues assessed how previous DENV and ZIKV immunity influences the risk of severe dengue among 3,412 participants in 2022, when all four DENV serotypes circulated in the country. The team analyzed longitudinal clinical and serologic data to define infection histories and used models and repeat measurements to predict risk."Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype," the study authors wrote. "Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease."ZIKV and DENV are orthoflaviviruses, a genus that also includes viruses such as those that cause West Nile disease, tickborne encephalitis, and yellow fever. Of the 3,412 children, 10.6% contracted dengue caused by the DENV1 serotype (139 patients), DENV4 (133), DENV3 (54), DENV2 (9), or an undetermined serotype (39).
NIH researchers never said there is no risk of CWD spillover to humans -- Some news stories on a recent study finding a strong chronic wasting disease (CWD) species barrier between cervids such as deer and humans have concluded that there is no risk of a zoonotic spillover of the fatal prion disease.But the study authors and other leading CWD and prion experts don't share that conviction."We think there's a low risk," senior study author Cathryn Haigh, PhD, Chief of the Prion Cell Biology Unit at the National Institutes of Health (NIH)'s Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Hamilton, Montana, told CIDRAP News. "We can't say no risk."The research was published in Emerging Infectious Diseases in mid-May.
Third US farm worker infected with the highly pathogenic bird flu virus - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced May 30 that a third person, a Michigan dairy farm worker, was diagnosed with the H5N1 bird flu virus that has been spreading among US dairy herds over the last six to seven months. As of May 31, 2024, 69 herds have been impacted across nine states, according to the USDA. Health authorities are also monitoring 350 people who have been exposed, but only 40 farm workers have consented to testing.The recently infected individual worked closely with the sickened cows. It was at a different farm from the previous case of H5N1 infection in Michigan, so the investigator attempted to assure the public that the virus was not spreading between people but through separate direct contacts with infected animals.However, the symptoms exhibited by the most recent infection included respiratory ailments such as a sore throat and cough, which were not present in the first case in Texas and the second case in Michigan. These had only presented with conjunctivitis, also known as pink eye, inflammation of the transparent membranes that line the eyelid and eyeball. Still, the fact that the Texas individual also had a positive nasal swab for H5N1 indicates the respiratory passages remain at risk, as has been confirmed by the recent finding.Dr. Rick Bright, a virologist and the former head of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, said in an opinion piece published in the New York Times, “The virus is adapting in predictable ways that increase its risk to humans, reflecting our failure to contain it early on. The solutions to this brewing crisis—such as comprehensive testing—have been there all along, and they’re becoming only more important. If we keep ignoring the warning signs, we have only ourselves to blame.”The impetus for this stern warning stems from the continued pernicious laissez-faire attitude that characterizes the federal response to the growing threat posed by H5N1 bird flu. Serological studies to map out the extent of the outbreak both among humans and animal species are completely lacking. Bright, who opposed the Trump administration’s handling of the COVID pandemic, had made these same highly critical observations early on. Precisely because public health had been relegated to the back of the queue in terms of government efforts, the US has seen one of the highest death tolls among leading countries despite its unprecedented access to vaccinations. Many other countries that adopted policies of mass testing and quarantining to drive infections to zero have seen very low fatalities in their population by comparison. Although the H5N1 virus was spreading among herds since December 2023, it was only in late March that the outbreak was detected. Yet the USDA has been slow to share viral sequences on public databases for researchers to analyze.Testing and enforcing the appropriate use of PPEs among farm workers continues to lag severely. Given their proximity to these animals, they are not only at risk of infection, but function as a ready host for these viruses to acquire the right combination of genetic mutations to propel them into human populations. As Bright noted, “Undetected cases of H5N1 means that infected people may continue to spread the virus unknowingly. This is especially dangerous in farming communities where close contact with animals and other workers is common. Each missed case is a potential link in a chain of transmission that could lead to a wider outbreak.”
H5 influenza wastewater dashboard launches - WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, today launched an H5 avian influenza wastewater dashboard today, which shows detections at about a dozen locations, mostly in Texas and Michigan.In other developments, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds issued a disaster proclamation for Cherokee County in the northwestern part of the state, following a highly pathogenic avian flu outbreak at a commercial turkey farm.The WastewaterSCAN group developed an H5 probe to test wastewater and recently reported significant levels at three treatment plants in communities where H5N1 had been detected in cattle. The scientists had also announced plans to use the H5 probe to test samples from all 190 WastewaterSCAN sites.The team emphasized that the test isn't specific to H5N1 and can pick up low-pathogenic H5 influenza viruses. Also, they cautioned that the test can't identify the species that shed the H5 virus or the source. Detections could be coming from dairy-processing discharge or from other animals or humans.Test results on the dashboard range from May 7 to May 30. Most of the positive detections are from sites in Michigan and Texas, two of the states hit hardest by H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cows. A few detections were also reported from a testing site in Idaho, another state where H5N1 has infected dairy cows.The dashboard, however, also shows a few detections in states that haven't reported H5N1 in dairy cows—Iowa and Minnesota. Both states, though, have reported recent H5N1 outbreaks in commercial poultry. Minnesota reported detections at three different locations (Mankato, Red Wing, and St. Cloud), and Iowa reported a detection in Marshalltown.Governor Reynolds yesterday announced the disaster proclamation for highly pathogenic avian flu in Cherokee County, the same day the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship reported an outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in the county.In her statement, Reynolds said the disaster proclamation allows state agency resources to assist with tracking and monitoring, rapid detection, containment, disposal, and disinfection. She also added that the declaration waives rules for commercial vehicles that respond to affected sites.In other avian flu developments:
- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported11 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy herds, all from previously affected states, bringing the total to 80. They include Idaho, Michigan, and South Dakota.
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently posted its strategy for enhanced flu surveillance over the summer, given ongoing activity in cows, poultry, and other animals, and sporadic detections in farmworkers.
- Scientists reporting preprint findings on a massive 2023 H5N1 outbreak in Argentina's elephant seals described more evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission, as well as 18 mutations possibly linked to increased virulence, transmission, or adaptation to mammals. Eleven of them were found in the H5N1 virus that had infected a person in Chile. The team also identified a marine-mammal–specific clade.
Pasteurization neutralizes avian flu viruses in milk, researchers find --UK researchers report that industry-standard pasteurization inactivates influenza A viruses (IAVs) in milk, according to a study posted late last week on the preprint server medRxiv.A team led by University of Edinburgh researchers tested whether pasteurization could neutralize the infectivity of human and avian IAVs, as well as an influenza D virus that naturally infects cattle and recombinant IAVs with contemporary avian or bovine H5N1 glycoproteins. To do so, they heated the milk to 63°C [145°F] for at least 30 minutes and 72°C [162°F] for 15 seconds."In late 2023 an H5N1 lineage of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) began circulating in American dairy cattle," the authors noted in the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. "Concerningly, high titres of virus were detected in cows' milk, raising the concern that milk could be a route of human infection." "At both 63°C and 72°C, the infectivity of all viruses was rapidly lost, dropping by orders of magnitude in seconds and falling below the limit of detection well in advance of the minimum times required for milk pasteurization," the team wrote. To test whether wild-type H5N1 AIV in particular is susceptible to pasteurization, the team added the virus to raw milk to ascertain its infectivity. After being subjected to heat, only genetic material—not infectious virus—was detected in the milk."We conclude that industry standard pasteurisation conditions should effectively inactivate H5N1 HPAIV in cows' milk, but that unpasteurised milk could carry infectious influenza viruses," the researchers concluded. "We therefore caution against the consumption of raw milk that could be contaminated with bovine IAV because of the risk of consuming infectious virus, in addition to its established risk for infection with other viral and bacterial pathogens."
WHO Confirms Bird Flu Death In Mexico As 'Trust The Science' Experts Want To Test America's 40 Million Cows -- The World Health Organization confirmed the first human death linked to avian influenza in Mexico, involving a 59-year-old with no prior history of handling poultry or other animals. This comes as bird flu has been spreading across North America and other regions of the world, infecting various types of animals and humans. "On 23 May 2024, the Mexico International Health Regulations (IHR) National Focal Point (NFP) reported to PAHO/WHO a confirmed fatal case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus detected in a resident of the State of Mexico who was hospitalized in Mexico City. "This is the first laboratory-confirmed human case of infection with an influenza A(H5N2) virus reported globally and the first avian H5 virus infection in a person reported in Mexico. Although the source of exposure to the virus in this case is currently unknown, A(H5N2) viruses have been reported in poultry in Mexico. According to the IHR (2005), a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus subtype is an event that has the potential for high public health impact and must be notified to the WHO. Based on available information, WHO assesses the current risk to the general population posed by this virus as low." The WHO's statement continued: "... confirmed case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus detected in a 59-year-old resident of the State of Mexico who was hospitalized in Mexico City and had no history of exposure to poultry or other animals. The case had multiple underlying medical conditions. The case's relatives reported that the case had already been bedridden for three weeks, for other reasons, prior to the onset of acute symptoms." Earlier Wednesday, Dutch virologist Dr. Marion Koopmans wrote on X, "The expanding list of wild mammals affected by the (global) epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza. This data is for the US. Adding mice to the list (the blue circle in New Mexico)." Koopmans also published a USDA map showing bird flu detections in an ever-expanding list of mammals. STAT News recently spoke with Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier, a leading expert on the bird flu, who provided some insight into the outbreak: "You have massive outbreaks in wild birds. It spreads over into poultry quite easily. But in humans we see lower numbers, and that to me suggests that the zoonotic risk has decreased." Meanwhile, Nita Madhav, a former US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researcher who is now senior director of epidemiology and modeling at Ginkgo Biosecurity, warned Scientific American, "The more it spreads within mammals, that gives it more chances to mutate. As it mutates, as it changes, there is a greater chance it can infect humans. If it gains the ability to spread efficiently from person to person, then it would be hard to stop."
Man dies from H5N2 avian flu in Mexico; Minnesota reports first case in dairy cow - The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed that a 59-year-old Mexican man with no known exposure to infected animals has died from the H5N2 subtype of avian flu.The WHO said the fatality does not change the current risk assessment to human health—low—for H5N2.The case-patient first developed fever, shortness of breath, and diarrhea on April 17, seeking medical care on April 24 at the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Mexico City. He was hospitalized and died the same day. A respiratory sample collected on April 24 indicated a non-subtypeable influenza A virus. and the Mexico National Influenza Centre confirmed the influenza subtype was A(H5N2) on May 22.According to the Mexican Ministry of Health, the patient had a number of comorbidities, including chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and long-standing systemic arterial hypertension. To date, 17 hospital contacts and 12 contacts who lived near the person’s residence have all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, and influenza B, as determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Serologic tests are still pending."Due to the constantly evolving nature of influenza viruses, WHO continues to stress the importance of global surveillance," the WHO said.Though how the man contracted the virus is unknown, Mexico did report a H5N2 outbreak on a backyard poultry farm in the state of Michoacan, which borders the state where the patient lived, the WHO said.Because new H5N1 crossover cases have been reported in a number of mammal species across North America, scientists have warned that human cases could follow. The United States has reported four human cases of H5N1, three of whom had exposure to dairy cows and one who had exposure to infected poultry. So far, all US cases have been mild.
MDARD - Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Detected in Clinton County Dairy Herd -- Today, Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) Director Tim Boring announced the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a dairy herd from Clinton County. This makes the 25th affected dairy herd in Michigan. Testing through the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory initially detected this case. Samples have been sent to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories for additional confirmatory testing.Regardless of species, biosecurity remains the best tool available to combat HPAI. On May 1, 2024, Director Boring issued the Determination of Extraordinary Emergency HPAI Risk Reduction and Response Order. In addition to other protocols, the order requires all dairy operations in Michigan to adopt enhanced biosecurity measures, collectively reducing the risk of introducing this virus on to farms. On May 3, 2024, additional guidance was issued to help producers enact these requirements, which went into effect on May 8, 2024. In addition to these requirements, following a few key steps can also be fundamental to protecting the health and vitality of Michigan's dairy cattle:
- Delay or stop incoming or returning animals from herds with unknown or suspect health status.
- Isolate all animals that are new or returning to your farm.
- Monitor the health of your animals daily.
- Contact your veterinarian if there are ever any animal health-related concerns or if you would like to develop a secure food supply plan.
- Sick animals should have dedicated equipment and be cared for after tending to healthy animals first.
- Clothing, footwear, and equipment worn/used around sick animals should not be worn/used around other animals until they are cleaned and disinfected. Use an EPA-registered disinfectant effective against avian influenza.
- Do not share tools, equipment, trailers, etc. with other farms.
- Clean and disinfect the interiors of trailers used to haul animals from other operations.
- Limit non-essential visitors to your farm.
- If individuals have recently been on a poultry farm, they should not visit a dairy operation, and vice versa.
- Require or provide clean clothing and footwear to those entering your farm.
- Use hand-washing stations and provide gloves to those working on your farm.
As part of the disease response, MDARD is working with herd veterinarians to monitor the health of the animals and conduct trace investigations. Additionally, MDARD and various federal and state partners continue to offer personal protective equipment at the request of dairy operations. The department continues diligently working with local, state, and federal partners to quickly respond to reports of HPAI to mitigate the spread of the disease and provide outreach.
Vine City Atlanta water main break: Boil water advisory, citywide outage -A boil water advisory is in effect and a citywide water outage for metro Atlanta after three large water main breaks forced the closure of several government offices and businesses in the downtown area.According to Atlanta Watershed Management, the break happened at around 8:30 a.m. on a 48-inch and 36-inch transmission line near the intersection of Joseph E. Boone Boulevard NW and J.P. Brawley Drive. The break caused a water outage and/or low water pressure throughout the downtown service area. Initially, city workers turned off the water values on those three mains, but turned them back on around 11:30 a.m. to allow for nearby facilities to prepare for an extended outage. That outage started at 5 p.m. with the intersection being shut down, the ground being broken, and crews getting to work on the repair. Low to no water is possible while repairs are being made.Repairs were further complicated by a second major water main break, this time in Midtown Atlanta. Several businesses and county offices had to close its doors Friday afternoon. A boil water advisory in place for the metro area.The break forced the closure of the Fulton County offices Downtown, including the Fulton County Government Center and Courthouse. The Helene Mills Senior Center, the Tax Assessors’ office at Peachtree Center, the Office of the Public Defender, and libraries in the area were closed.Various businesses in the downtown area, including the Georgia Aquarium and the College Football Hall of Fame have been impacted. Aquarium officials confirmed the outage was not impacting any of the animals, but that they were closed for the day while crews address the issue. Zoo Atlanta has closed early, citing water pressure issues. The zoo said it has contingency plans in place to ensure that all animals have access to water.Officials at Grady Memorial Hospital, through a statement, said the hospital was also impacted by the break. They said all elective and non-urgent procedures and appointments were being canceled. "Grady is experiencing low water pressure due to a water main break in the City of Atlanta," the statement reads. "Hospital leadership and our facilities team are working diligently to mitigate the issues. To ensure patient safety, we have decided to cancel all elective and non-urgent procedures and appointments. Affected patients will be notified and appointments will be rescheduled for a later date."
Atlanta mayor declares state of emergency following water main breaks, hospital that moved patients resumes normal operations | CNN — Atlanta’s mayor has declared a state of emergency following a massive water main break that left parts of the city’s downtown district without water and prompted a major hospital to transfer patients elsewhere.The significant disruption to water service in Georgia’s capital is the latest dramatic example of how aging infrastructure throughout the United States has impacted electrical grids, bridges and roadways, dams and other vital systems, inconveniencing millions of Americans or placing them in danger.Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens on Saturday declared a state of emergency just a few hours after crews repaired one of two major water main breaks in the city’s downtown area. The other, in the Midtown neighborhood, is still undergoing services with no estimate on when it will be repaired.Repair crews have made “significant progress in localizing the repairs” as they continue to address the broken water main at the intersection of West Peachtree Street and 11th Street in Midtown, Atlanta’s Department of Watershed Management said early Sunday.Video from CNN affiliate WANF showed water gushing from a pipe onto a blocked-off portion of West Peachtree Street as crews worked to address it.Atlanta Watershed reported another possible water main break in the city earlier Sunday and announced emergency repairs on a 6-inch water main near the Candler Park neighborhood were complete by late Sunday afternoon. Water service was restored to 35 nearby homes and four hydrants, the city agency said.The issues began Friday after breaks on a 48-inch and 36-inch transmission line “that carries large volumes of water to the metropolitan area,” according to Atlanta Watershed.The water main breaks left parts of downtown Atlanta without water and under boil water advisories, shuttering tourist attractions and forcing events to be postponed.After repairs to the initial water main break downtown were completed, crews fully restored water service to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, the Fulton County Jail, Atlanta City Detention Center and other facilities, the city agency said. On Sunday, the city distributed water at two city fire stations, limiting cases to one per resident amid ongoing water issues. “We are currently working on getting more water delivered to all stations,” the City of Atlanta said in a post on X. Meanwhile, the city’s Emory University Hospital Midtown and its ambulances resumed normal operations Sunday after the hospital experienced water pressure issues due to the water main breaks on Saturday, according to Janet Christenbury, director of media relations.The disruptions prompted the hospital on Saturday to transfer dialysis patients to other hospitals and divert ambulances from its emergency department, except for people with urgent heart concerns, a hospital spokesperson told CNN in a statement.“Tomorrow, we will operate on regular schedules for outpatient doctor’s appointments, procedures and surgeries,” Christenbury said in a statement.The hospital said it brought in around 58,000 gallons of water in six tanker trucks to use in chillers and cooling towers on Saturday and distributed bottled water to patients for drinking and personal care needs.“We will continue to provide bottled water to patients, visitors and staff while the hospital remains under a boil water advisory, like many of the affected areas in Atlanta,” Christenbury said.
Atlanta resident floats down flooded street after water mains breaks A person floated down an Atlanta street in an inflatable ring after two broken water mains sent water gushing into the city’s streets last Friday (31 May).Water surging into a street where three large mains intersect caused water problems at two hospitals, a city jail, a county jail, and local shelters, the Atlanta Department of Watershed Management said.Some attractions and businesses had to close while officials sought to repair the breaks. A boil-water advisory was in place for Midtown and several other eastern neighborhoods for a fifth day on Tuesday as repairs continued.
Atlanta water woes extend into fourth day as city finally cuts off leak gushing into streets (AP) — For at least some residents, Atlanta’s water problems weren’t over Monday.Milena Franco, who lives in the city’s Midtown neighborhood, said she and her husband had water all weekend. But Monday morning, the flow was cut off, as Franco discovered when she tried to take a shower.“I got in the shower and I just cried for a little bit,” Franco said.City officials said water was shut down in the immediate neighborhood as part of an effort to stanch the flow from a broken main that had been gushing a river into streets since Friday night.The geyser finally dried up around sunrise Monday, after officials trucked in parts from Alabama under a police escort. But a swath of the city remained under an order to boil water before drinking it, even in areas where pressure had been restored after a first mammoth leak was fixed Saturday. The area under the boil water order shrank drastically Monday afternoon, but the days of outages had some residents frustrated with the pace of repairs. “We are laser-focused on this problem and my administration understands how critical water is for our lifeline in this city,” Dickens told reporters at the site of the water main break Monday.But his news conference ended before reporters could ask all their questions because resident Rhett Scircle was asking the questions residents in nearby buildings wanted to know.“When will the water be back on? Is there any estimated timeline? We live right here!” Scircle yelled at Department of Watershed Management Commissioner Al Wiggins Jr.Wiggins, who has been commissioner for less than a month, declined to estimate when water would be flowing again, as backhoes dug in a hole behind him. Officials provided no estimates of how many residents were still affected or how many had been affected at peak.Atlanta’s water outages are the latest failures as cities across the country work to shore up faltering infrastructure. A 2022 crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, which has a long-troubled water system, left many residents without safe running water for weeks.Atlanta has spent billions in recent years to upgrade its aging sewer and water systems, including a tunnel drilled through 5 miles (8 kilometers) of rock to store more than 30 days of water. Last month, voters approved continuing a 1-cent sales tax to pay for water and sewer work. The city historically dumped untreated sewage into creeks and the Chattahoochee River, until a federal court order to stop.The outage hasn’t affected the entire city of 500,000 — many areas in Atlanta’s northern and southern ends never lost water pressure and never faced a boil order. But for tens of thousands of residents, trouble began Friday when a junction of three water mains sprang a massive leak west of downtown. Wiggins said that leak was caused by corrosion and was tricky to repair because the three pipes created a confined space for work.The Midtown leak began hours later. Wiggins said city workers still aren’t sure why it happened, but said it to was difficult to fix because it happened at a junction of two large water pipes, and the valve to turn them off was inaccessible because of the gushing liquid. The city instead dug holes in four directions a block away to cut the flow to the Midtown leak, although Scircle and some other residents said they saw little work for much of Saturday and Sunday.
A key Atlanta water main break is now fixed, but a boil advisory is still in place for many, city says | CNN — Crews in Atlanta have completed repairs to a key water main whose break, among others, contributed to a huge swath of the city spending days without safe drinking water – though a boil advisory remains in effect for many homes and businesses “out of an abundance of caution,” officials said Wednesday morning. Water service is “slowly being brought back online to allow system pressures to rebuild,” they said in a news release, following a vast, sometimes intermittent breakdown that began Friday and highlighted the decaying infrastructure criss-crossing a major Southern hub and many other major American cities. “Every city in America has aging infrastructure, and we will rise to meet this moment to ensure that residents and businesses alike have reliable access to water.”A boil water advisory is still in place Wednesday for a portion of Atlanta from downtown to Midtown and across several eastern Atlanta neighborhoods after crews completed repairs to the broken water main at 11th and West Peachtree streets in Midtown, restoring water to nearby customers. The state Environmental Protection Division will notify the city when the advisory can be lifted – hopefully within 18 hours, the commissioner of the Department of Watershed Management said during the 10 a.m. news conference.That timeline is based on a “incubation” period, Commissioner Al Wiggins Jr. said. “We cannot rush that timeframe, nor do we want to. We want to ensure that we provide safe drinking water to our residents.”Dickens thanked residents for their patience, acknowledging the “disruption wasn’t easy for you.”“That said, I will continue to be out and about this week, continuing to do wellness checks on our senior facilities, as well as speaking with our small business that may have been impacted by this situation,” added Dickens, who has been criticized as slow to respond publicly to the crisis and his administration slammed as ineffective early on in communicating updates.The mayor reiterated the city is developing a $5 million fund to assist affected businesses and a plan to enact recommendations made by the US Army Corps of Engineers, which is helping evaluate Atlanta’s water infrastructure to tackle any vulnerabilities.Wiggins acknowledged the city “will have more water main breaks,” but said the crisis that unfolded in recent days derived from a “unique set of circumstances.”Indeed, no sooner had the city announced the repair in Midtown than its Department of Watershed Management announced another “interruption of water service” to the north, on Piedmont Road.Crews had to turn off a 12-inch water main to make repairs, the department said on X, noting the outage “is affecting one apartment complex, and one hydrant.”The city’s water difficulties began midday Friday, when the first two of a series of water main breaks emerged along two pipes that Dickens said were about a century old – one 36 inches, the other 48 inches. One of the failed pipes was installed in 1910, while another dated to 1930, he told CNN on Monday.Dickens on Saturday declared a state of emergency as a string of breaks left parts of the city without water or under boil advisories and caused significant disruptions to medical and educational facilities in the city. Emory University Hospital Midtown began diverting ambulances from its emergency department and transferred dialysis patients to other hospitals – though normal operations resumed Sunday. Atlanta Public Schools also canceled many of its summer programs on Monday and Tuesday, saying they would resume once water service returned.Repairs on a break near downtown were finished Saturday, allowing the city to lift a far broader boil water advisory that had been in effect in the area since Friday.“What we have found, in digging and digging and digging and looking at pipes, we are repairing pipes from 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, and our infrastructure is crumbling,” Atlanta Chief Operating Officer LaChandra Burks said at a Monday afternoon city council meeting.
Rapidly spreading Corral Fire forces evacuations in San Joaquin County, California - Evacuations were ordered in San Joaquin County due to the rapidly spreading Corral Fire, which has burned 11 047 acres (4 470 ha) southwest of Tracy, California as of June 1, 2024. The Corral Fire has consumed 4 470 ha (11 047 acres) after igniting on June 1 near Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300, southwest of Tracy (population 97 328), according to Cal Fire. The fire’s containment, initially reported at 40%, dropped to 10% around 19:30 LT, before slightly improving to 13% before 23:00 LT on June 1. The Alameda County Fire Department reported that two firefighters were hospitalized with minor to moderate burns. Controlled burns are being conducted near the Tracy Hills neighborhood north of evacuation orders, with ample fire resources on site. The cause of the fire is under investigation, with Cal Fire and Alameda Fire Department actively battling the blaze. I have covered hundreds of wildfires in California in the past several years and have never experienced winds anything like this. Very difficult to stand, having to hold the tripod to prevent camera from tipping. #CorralFire pic.twitter.com/UHUoog55e5 To combat the fire, the first Type 1 Large Airtanker of the year was deployed from Cal Fire Amador-El Dorado Unit’s McClellan Airtanker Base. At 18:30 LT on June 1, the San Joaquin County Office of Emergency Services issued evacuation order for residents east of I-580 between Corral Hollow Road and S. Tracy Boulevard, known as SJC 210. This order was extended southwest of Vernalis Road to the Tracy Golf and County Club on the east side of I-580, including the Tesla Treatment Facility, designated as SJC211. Additionally, SJC215, an area southwest of I-580 and north of I-5, was upgraded to an evacuation order. Evacuation orders expanded west along Corral Hollow Road and south to the southwestern point of San Joaquin County. These orders, identified as SJC213, SJC212, and SJC199, cover areas between I-580 and the California Aqueduct, south of Corral Hollow Creek to Alameda County, and south to Stanislaus County. Temporary evacuation locations include the Larch Clover Community Center at 11157 W. Larch Road in Tracy, while a large animal shelter has been established at the Manteca Unified School District located at 2271 W Louise Avenue in Manteca.Road closures due to the fire include eastbound and westbound I-580 from the junction with Interstate 205 to Interstate 5, Highway 132 from the junction with I-580 to the junction with I-5, and several local roads such as S. Tracy Boulevard, S. Manteca Drive, S. Chrisman Road, and Bird Road.
California wildfire near explosives-testing facility mostly contained, averting potential danger - California’s largest wildfire to date this season — kindled on Saturday adjacent to an explosives- and materials-testing facility — has been 75 percent contained, Cal Fire announced Monday.The so-called Corral Fire, whose source was still under investigation, had grown to about 14,168 acres just southwest of the city of Tracy, in San Joaquin County, due east of San Francisco.While the blaze had led to numerous evacuation orders over the weekend and shuttered Interstate 580, the orders were downgraded by Monday, and the highway was reopened, according to Cal Fire’s Santa Clara Unit.San Joaquin County also announced the cancellation of a boil water notice that had gone into force Sunday.Although any imminent danger appeared to have been averted by Monday, the Corral Fire’s location had garnered some concern due to its proximity to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300.The 11-square-mile Department of Energy research lab opened in the 1950s “primarily as a high-explosives and materials testing site in support of nuclear weapons research,” according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).Cleanup at the facility has been ongoing, but past activities there “contaminated soil and groundwater with hazardous chemicals,” including tritium, depleted uranium and volatile organic compounds, per the EPA.Asked about any potential threat posed by the fire to the site, Paul Rhien, a spokesperson for Livermore, said in an emailed statement that Cal Fire is investigating the cause of the blaze.He added that the site had recently conducted controlled burns to remove dry grasses and create a buffer zone around the buildings, stressing that the fire was “not related to the controlled burns.”“There are no current threats to any Laboratory facilities and operations as the fire has moved away from the site,” Rhien said, noting that there has not been any on- or offsite contamination.“As a precaution, we activated our emergency operations center and monitored the situation through the weekend,” he added.
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for California, Nevada and Arizona -- Record-breaking heat is forecast across the southwestern United States on June 6 and 7, 2024, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for nearly 20 million people — from California and Nevada to Arizona. Las Vegas has reached 43.3 °C (110 °F) at 14:11 LT today, tying the record for the earliest 110 °F day. A strong upper-level ridge associated with the ongoing heat wave over the Southwest is forecast to reach its peak intensity on Thursday, June 6, before gradually moving towards the southern Plains over the next few days. Widespread high and low temperature records are being tied or broken between California, Nevada, and Arizona today, with this trend expected to expand northward into Oregon and Washington on Friday and Saturday.The HeatRisk will peak between Major and Extreme today for much of the West, with particular concern for California’s Central Valley and the Desert Southwest due to their lower elevations and urban areas.Little to no overnight relief from the heat will affect those without effective cooling and adequate hydration. Record-breaking heat is forecast across the southwestern United States on Thursday, June 6, and Friday, June 7, 2024, affecting nearly 20 million people under Excessive Heat Warnings. At 14:11 LT on June 6, Las Vegas recorded a temperature of 43.3 °C (110 °F), tying the record for the earliest 110 °F day, previously set on June 6, 2010, meteorologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) in Las Vegas reported at 14:22 LT (21:22 UTC), adding that there’s still a few more hours of heating to go. If the forecast high of 44.4 °C (112 °F) in Las Vegas today is reached, it would set a new record for the city’s earliest observed 112 °F. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are widespread, covering regions from California and Nevada to Arizona. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski explained that a combination of a bulge in the jet stream over the western United States and a storm offshore over the Pacific Ocean is causing the extreme temperatures. This weather pattern is expected to elevate temperatures to their highest levels since last summer, affecting nearly a dozen states, including California, Oregon, and the Rockies. Sosnowski noted that the peak of the heat would occur from Thursday to Friday, but parts of the Great Basin might experience surging temperatures on Saturday, June 8. Cities like Redding and Fresno in California, Las Vegas, Reno, and Ely in Nevada, and Tucson, Phoenix, and Flagstaff in Arizona are expected to challenge and potentially break daily record-high temperatures. The extreme heat will also impact portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, and New Mexico. Death Valley may reach 48.9 °C (120 °F) for the first time this year, a temperature not typically seen in the hottest place in North America during June. On Wednesday, June 5, nearly two dozen records were set across the country, including in larger cities such as Fort Myers, Florida; Flagstaff, Arizona; and Harlingen, Brownsville, and Del Rio in Texas. While California’s heat peaked on Wednesday, the eastern part of the state will remain hot through the weekend.
Florida transitions to rainy season following record-warm May -Florida is getting a double dose of misery with several cities sizzling under record-breaking heat and the threat of flooding becoming a growing concern. A transition to the rainy season is underway in Florida after the state experienced its hottest May ever in many locations. “2024 it was a record-breaking warm May,” meteorologists at the NWS Miami office said. “Our four climate stations (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Naples) all broke their record for warmest month of May. Some sites have taken observations for over 100 years — like Miami (1895) and W. Palm Beach (1888).” On May 29, Tampa and Orlando soared to 36 °C (97 °F), setting a new daily record for the city, while Key West tied their daily high temperature with a sweltering 33.3 °C (92 °F). On the same day, New Orleans in Louisiana also broke a daily record with a high of 34.4 °C (94 °F). Fort Lauderdale set a record for the city at 37.2 °C (99 °F) on May 27, and Miami recorded 35.5 °C (96 °F) on May 26. “Hot temperatures are in store to end the work week with less rain shower/storm coverage,” NWS Miami said today. “Temperatures reach the low to mid 90s [33 – 36 °C] with heat indices in the region up to 40 – 42 °C (105 – 108 °F). A heat advisory is currently in effect for Miami-Dade, but may get expanded to other counties.” After all these record-breaking temperatures, a surge of tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding to many parts of the state next week. While the coming week might offer a brief respite from the scorching temperatures, don’t expect a complete cool-down. Deep tropical moisture will keep things feeling muggy and uncomfortable. The rainy season in Florida is typically divided into three phases. From late May through June, severe storms are most likely, often bringing hail, damaging winds, waterspouts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. The season peaks from July to early September, when the risk of severe weather decreases but heavy rainfall, seasonal river flooding, and frequent lightning remain significant hazards. The final phase, from mid-September to early October, sees higher rainfall variability due to potential tropical systems and early-fall cold fronts.
PHOTOS: East Texas hit by severe weather, trees fall, roads flooded (KETK) – As severe weather moves through East Texas on Monday, several trees have fallen and flooded roads have been reported.Around 8:30 p.m. on Monday, more than 99,000 East Texans were reportedly with out power. Lindale Police Department said that Hamrick Street to County Road 2710 on Highway 16 is flooded.Jefferson Police Department said that multiple areas of Jefferson are flooded and to only travel if necessary. The City of Tyler also asked residents to avoid non-essential travel. KETK has compiled the following photos of Monday’s storm damage. (dozens of photos)
Tornado hits Michigan without warning, killing toddler, while twister in Maryland injures 5 (AP) — A toddler was killed and his mother was injured when a tornado struck suburban Detroit without warning, while five people were injured when a tornado in Maryland collapsed structures and trapped people inside.Officials in Livonia, Michigan, said the tornado tore through several neighborhoods on Wednesday afternoon and developed so quickly that there was no advance notice from the National Weather Service or others that would have normally led to the activation of warning sirens.The storm uprooted a massive tree that fell on one family’s house and came through the roof, landing on a bed where a woman and her 2-year-old were sleeping, officials said in a post on the city’s website. Crews worked for nearly an hour to remove the roof and parts of the tree and then lift the tree to get the victims out.The toddler was pronounced dead at the scene, officials said. The mother was transported to a local hospital in critical condition. A 2-week-old sibling who was in a crib in a separate room was not injured but taken to a hospital for an evaluation, Livonia Fire Department Chief Robert Jennison told WDIV-TV. The National Weather Service in Detroit confirmed on the social platform X that an EF1 tornado with a peak wind speed of 95 mph (153 kmh) moved through Livonia. The agency said the twister traveled a path spanning over 5 miles (8 kilometers), uprooting trees and damaging some homes.A representative from the weather service called it a spin-up storm that didn’t show up on their radars in enough time to issue a warning, according to city officials.Tornado warnings were issued for parts of several other states on Wednesday night, including Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland.In Maryland, emergency workers responded to reports that people were trapped inside structures that collapsed after a tornado hit Wednesday night.The tornado was spotted in a suburban area of Montgomery County northwest of Washington, the National Weather Service said in a social media post warning people in the area to take cover.There were reports of three collapsed structures in Gaithersburg with people trapped inside, Montgomery County Fire and Rescue Service spokesperson Pete Piringer said.Piringer said the most significant damage occurred when a large tree fell on a single-family house, leaving five people injured, including one with traumatic injuries. He said they were all transported to a hospital.Local television footage showed large downed trees that damaged houses when they fell.David Pazos, Montgomery County Fire and Rescue assistant chief, said there were a lot of power outages.“We don’t know what people’s needs are, so we’re having to go door to door to assess whether they need fire and rescue services or need relocation because of damage to their homes,” he said.
NWS announces record-breaking tornado damage length for May 26 storms - The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Paducah, Kentucky announced on June 5 that storms on May 26, 2024, produced 16 tornadoes in their forecast area, resulting in a record-breaking 410 km (255 miles) of tornado damage. During the month of May, there were two historic severe weather events in the NWS Paducah forecast area — on May 8 and 26. The May 8 event shattered the previous single-day record for most warning issuances by the Paducah office. A total of 16 tornadoes were observed in the NWS Paducah forecast area on May 26, resulting in a record-breaking 410 km (250 miles) of tornado damage. The May 26 severe weather event also had the second-highest single-day warning issuance count in office history. The NWS office in Paducah is responsible for monitoring weather conditions across 58 counties in parts of Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. This extensive coverage includes major cities like Evansville, Hopkinsville, Owensboro, Carbondale, Cape Girardeau, and Paducah. There were two historic severe weather events that impacted the region under their watch in May 2024. The first occurred on May 8 when several rounds of storms occurred throughout a nearly 24-hour period beginning late evening on May 7. The most widespread damage occurred during the afternoon and evening of May 8 as multiple bowing segments and several supercells occurred. 9 tornadoes touched down while training storms resulted in flash flooding with rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm (2 – 4 inches) in many areas, locally up to 127 – 152 mm (5 – 6 inches). This event resulted in the single-day record for most warning issuances (Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Tornado Warning, and Flash Flood Warning) by the Paducah office of 117, shattering the old record of 71. The second severe weather event occurred on May 26 when multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms occurred. The first was a bowing line crossing Southeast Missouri into Western Kentucky and far Southern Illinois from 05:00 to 10:00 LT, producing a wide swath of wind damage and several tornadoes. Supercells formed near sunset producing several more tornadoes while a line of storms moved across the Quad State from 07:00 to 11:00 LT, bringing a second round of widespread wind. At least 100 000 customers were without power across the Quad State region at the peak of this event. Flash flooding occurred with the morning and evening rounds of storms. In their May 2024 Climate Summary, the office reported a preliminary number of 14 tornadoes, including 3 EF-3s. The May 26 event also had the second-highest single-day warning issuance count in office history, only behind the May 8 record. However, on June 5, the office announced the number of tornadoes produced on May 26 rose to 16 — resulting in an ‘astounding’ 410 km (255 miles) of tornado damage. This now marks a record-shattering length of tornado damage in their forecast area. The previous record was 260 km (162 miles) of damage set on February 29, 2012.
Tornado hits Banja Luka in Bosnia and Herzegovina, damaging over 20 homes --A small tornado swept through the village of Mišin Han near Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina on June 3, 2024, leaving significant structural damage. According to local media reports, the affected area is reported to have more than 20 damaged homes. However, no casualties were accounted for by the officials. Residents said the tornado lasted just a few minutes, but with ‘catastrophic’ consequences. On June 5, Banja Luka city administration declared a state of emergency and a state of natural disaster for the Mišin Han community due to the damage caused by the devastating storm.
Cyclone Remal hits Sri Lanka, affects thousands and kills over 30 people - Stormy monsoon rains have hit Sri Lanka over the past week, triggering floods and landslides, impacting tens of thousands of families and killing at least 30 people. State authorities have issued further warnings about ongoing rain across the island and fishermen have been advised not to sail until further notice. Main road and shops submerged by floods at Puwakpitiya, in Avissavella, a Colombo suburb, on June 1, 2024 [Photo by Kavidas] The havoc follows Cyclone Remal, which began in the Bay of Bengal in mid-May, hitting Bangladesh and many states in India including West Bengal. Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre (DMC) reported yesterday morning that over 253,500 persons from more than 66,900 families had been affected. More than 40 houses were completely destroyed and over 4,000 partially damaged. It reported 21 deaths and 13 persons missing, presumed dead. The Western, Sabaragamuwa and North Western provinces, and the Galle, Matara districts in the south, were hit by over 150mm of rain on Sunday, resulting in a number of major rivers—the Kalu, Gin, Nilwala and Kelani—overflowing. Hundreds of homes in flood-prone areas along these rivers and adjoining towns and villages were engulfed. The power and energy ministry said electricity supplies to multiple localities had been suspended because of flooding and adverse weather conditions, with repeated breakdowns still being reported. Train operations in many parts of the country were partially or completely suspended because of bridge collapses. Submerged streets of Akuressa, Sri Lanka, 3 June 2024 Numbers of villages and paddy fields were flooded in the Southern Province, forcing people to take refuge in makeshift camps in schools and temples. In one of many tragic incidents, a schoolgirl visiting Akuressa town on June 2 in the flooded southern Matara district was drowned when the Nilwala River overflowed. Her body is yet to be recovered. Another student was only able to save himself by clinging onto a tree. On the evening of June 3, two young people, aged 20 and 27, were killed, and another person injured at the remote village of Pallewela in the same district, when an earth mound collapsed on a home. At Elston Estate, near Avissawella, about 45km east of Colombo, three members of the same family, including a 36-year-old woman, her daughter and father, were killed when their home was inundated after a nearby canal flooded in the early hours of June 2. Flooding of the Kelani River has seriously impacted on poor families living in low-lying Colombo suburbs such as Puwakwatta, Sinhapura, Egoda Kolonnawa, Vennawatta, Salawatta and Brandiawatta.
Severe floods hit Algeria, claiming the lives of at least 15 people - Heavy rainfall and severe flooding affecting parts of Algeria over the past couple of days caused widespread damage and claimed the lives of at least 15 people. On June 4 alone, at least 6 people died in flash floods as heavy downpours hit the country’s western provinces causing rivers to overflow. The situation was especially bad in Kabylia, where vast stretches of land ended up submerged. Videos posted on social media showed cars swept away in the floods while locals were trying to save their lives and property. Terrible floods due to torrential rains in Bou Saada of M'Sila Province, Algeria (04.06.2024) TELEGRAM JOIN https://t.co/9cTkji5aZq pic.twitter.com/fQHZsJnc7Q — Disaster News (@Top_Disaster) June 5, 2024 More footage of the flooding after heavy rainfall in Bou Saada, M'Sila Province, Algeria Ahead of the stormy weather on June 4, the National Meteorological Office issued an Orange heavy rainfall warning for Naama, North of El Bayadh, Tiaret, Laghouat, Djelfa, M’sila, Ouled Djellal, Batna, Biskra, Khenchela, Tebessa and Oum El Bouaghi provinces. Weather officials urged residents in affected regions to be aware of strong winds and dust storms that might precede heavy rainfall. They warned that heavy rain and flooding could cause major travel disruptions across the region. Flooded roads and debris may block bridges, highways, and rail lines. This could lead to road closures, delays, and cancellations for both cars and trains. Even if roads remain open, standing water can create hazardous driving conditions. Algeria is a country with more than 80% desert area. The arid nature of the region means even small amounts of rain can quickly lead to flash flooding, especially in areas with poor stormwater management in urban centers. These sudden deluges can overwhelm streams and wadis, the normally dry riverbeds that snake through the landscape.
Germany's deadly floods spread along Danube - Flood waters are continuing to rise in parts of southern Germany, and are now spreading down the Danube to Austria and Hungary. Five people are now known to have died since heavy rain led to rivers bursting their banks in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. One of the victims was a woman who died when her car left the road and became submerged west of Munich. A Bavarian firefighter is missing. Although the Germand DWD weather service has declared an end to the torrential rain that has hit southern Germany for days, water levels in the historic city of Passau, where three rivers meet, have now risen close to 10m (32ft), the highest for more than a decade. River levels on the Danube have also been rising in Austria and Hungary. The Danube burst its banks in Austria's third-largest city Linz leaving areas close to the river banks submerged. Local resident Gertrude told the Kurier website that the flooding brought back bad memories from August 2002 when a fifth of the city was left underwater. The river reached 6.86m on Tuesday morning and was expected to peak during the afternoon. All river traffic along the Danube was brought to a standstill in the Lower Austria area. In Hungary, forecasters warned of significant rainfall in the coming three days and Gabriella Siklos of the National Water Directorate warned the situation was changing by the hour. There were also concerns that the rising water levels would spread to the Danube floodplain in Slovakia. Cargo shipping remains halted on the Rhine in some areas of southern Germany, although authorities in Baden-Württemberg in the south west say water levels are set to fall in the coming days. River traffic on the Rhine has been badly affected Torrential rain has fallen for days in much of southern Germany and a state of emergency has been declared in the Rosenheim area of Bavaria. Three people have now died in Bavaria, and a man and a woman were found dead in their basement in Baden-Württemberg on Monday. A 22-year-old firefighter is missing in Bavaria. Bavarian state premier Markus Söder has described the situation as "serious and critical". In some areas of southern Germany, experts spoke of once-in-a-century levels of rainfall. Cars were swept away and residential areas were flooded, although by Tuesday morning all severe weather warnings in southern Germany were lifted. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that the flooding in the south is a reminder that "halting man-made climate change" cannot be neglected.
New eruption at Kilauea volcano, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Hawaii - The Watchers - A new eruption began at Kilauea volcano in Hawaii at approximately 10:30 UTC (00:30 HST) on June 3, 2024. The eruption took place in a closed area of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. The eruption is taking place about 1.6 km (1 mile) south of Kīlauea caldera and north of the Koa’e fault system and Hilina Pali Road, within Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. Accordingly, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has raised the Volcano Alert Level for ground-based hazards from Watch to Warning and the Aviation Color Code from Orange to Red. “Glow is visible in webcam imagery, indicating that lava is currently erupting from fissures,” HVO volcanologists said. “The most recent eruption in this region was during December 1974, which lasted only about 6 hours. At this time, it is not possible to say how long the eruption will last.” The eruption follows a significant increase in earthquake and ground deformation rates at the volcano after 03:00 UTC today. Residents and visitors are urged to stay informed and follow the County of Hawai‘i and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park guidelines.
Asteroid 2024 LH1 flew past Earth at 0.02 LD on June 6 --A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 LH1 flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.021 LD / 0.00005 AU (8 098 km / 5 032 miles) from the center of our planet at 14:02 UTC on June 6, 2024. This is the 47th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the closest flyby of the year. Asteroid 2024 LH1 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona at approximately 09:26 UTC on June 6 — just over 4 and a half hours before its close approach to Earth. The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.8 and 4.1 m (5.9 and 13.4 feet)
Earth warming at record rate, but no evidence of climate change accelerating --The rate Earth is warming hit an all-time high in 2023 with 92% of last year’s surprising record-shattering heat caused by humans, top scientists calculated.The group of 57 scientists from around the world used United Nations-approved methods to examine what’s behind last year’s deadly burst of heat. They said even with a faster warming rate they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change beyond increased fossil fuel burning.Last year’s record temperatures were so unusual that scientists have been debating what’s behind the big jump and whether climate change is accelerating or if other factors are in play.“If you look at this world accelerating or going through a big tipping point, things aren’t doing that,” study lead author Piers Forster, a Leeds University climate scientist, said. “Things are increasing in temperature and getting worse in sort of exactly the way we predicted.”It’s pretty much explained by the buildup of carbon dioxide from rising fossil fuel use, he and a co-author said.Last year the rate of warming hit 0.26 degrees Celsius (0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade — up from 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) the year before. That’s not a significant difference, though it does make this year’s rate the highest ever, Forster said.Still, outside scientists said this report highlights an ever more alarming situation.“Choosing to act on climate has become a political talking point but this report should be a reminder to people that in fact it is fundamentally a choice to save human lives,” said University of Wisconsin climate scientist Andrea Dutton, who wasn’t part of the international study team. “To me, that is something worth fighting for.”The team of authors — formed to provide annual scientific updates between the every seven- to eight-year major U.N. scientific assessments — determined last year was 1.43 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average with 1.31 degrees of that coming from human activity. The other 8% of the warming is due mostly to El Nino, the natural and temporary warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide and also a freak warming along the Atlantic and just other weather randomness.On a larger 10-year time frame, which scientists prefer to single years, the world has warmed about 1.19 degrees Celsius (2.14 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the report in the journal Earth System Science Data found.The report also said that as the world keeps using coal, oil and natural gas, Earth is likely to reach the point in 4.5 years that it can no longer avoid crossing the internationally accepted threshold for warming: 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ).That fits with earlier studies projecting Earth being committed or stuck to at least 1.5 degrees by early 2029 if emission trajectories don’t change. The actual hitting of 1.5 degrees could be years later, but it would be inevitable if all that carbon is used, Forster said.It’s not the end of the world or humanity if temperatures blow past the 1.5 limit, but it will be quite bad, scientists said. Past U.N. studies show massive changes to Earth’s ecosystem are more likely to kick in between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius of warming, including eventual loss of the planet’s coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, species of plants and animals — along with nastier extreme weather events that kill people.
Carbon dioxide levels rising 'faster than ever,' report finds --Levels of planet-heating carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere are rising “faster than ever,” according to a report published Thursday. That spells serious disruption for the climate in decades to come — even as human society struggles to adapt to the effects of warming already “locked in” by historic burning of fossil fuels. On Thursday, scientists from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Oceanographic Institute found that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had reached a record 427 parts per million.And that wasn’t all. “Not only is [carbon dioxide] now at the highest level in millions of years, it is also rising faster than ever,” Scripps director Ralph Keeling said. The findings come in the wake of other climate alarms: 2023 was the hottest year on record, had the hottest ocean temperature on record and saw a record number of billion-plus dollar disasters. The Earth is just coming off a year of back-to-back monthly heat records, capped by May 2024’s crowning as the hottest May in human history. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be thought of as the Earth’s ratio of dead organisms to living ones: the more life, the less floating, heat-trapping carbon. As such, carbon dioxide concentrations tend to peak in the Northern Hemisphere every May, before growing trees and plants can suck levels back down to fuel their growth throughout the summer. That’s an annual flux described as the Keeling Curve, named for Scripps scientist Charles David Keeling. The father of the current Scripps director, the older Keeling discovered both the annual pattern of carbon flux and the relentless, year-over-year rise in its annual peaks. Those peaks drove ever higher as the world burned more fossil fuels, which come from the highly-compressed bodies of long-dead ancient organisms. “Each year achieves a higher maximum due to fossil-fuel burning, which releases pollution in the form of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere … [which] just keeps building up, much like trash in a landfill,” Ralph Keeling added. Carbon dioxide is the molecular detritus left over after organic material — wood, coal, gas, oil — has been burned, and once in the atmosphere it acts like an invisible, heat-trapping blanket that absorbs the sun’s radiation and keeps terrestrial warmth from radiating back into space. Because a warmer atmosphere is thirstier, more energetic and ultimately more powerful rising carbon dioxide thus fuels more powerful hurricanes, hotter heat waves, bigger floods and longer, drier droughts. But these effects aren’t immediate: The warming effects of an emission take at least a decade to kick in, and may take far longer. That means that the present day’s record heat comes from fuels burned in the early 21st century — and that the burning now occurring is committing the earth to additional heating for decades to come.
Fossil fuel allies ramp up calls for Supreme Court to crush climate cases - Allies of the fossil fuel industry and former President Donald Trump’s judicial adviser are mounting an unprecedented pressure campaign to convince the Supreme Court to side with the fossil fuel industry in a long-running legal dispute that could put oil and gas companies on the hook for billions of dollars.The court is scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss whether to take up the oil industry’s latest request to dismiss dozens of lawsuits filed by U.S. cities, states and counties seeking to hold Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other companies financially accountable for lying about the dangers of burning fossil fuels. The justices could grant or reject the petition in the coming days.Ahead of the justices’ discussion of the petition, Sunoco v. City and County of Honolulu, climate litigation critics, including those with ties to judicial activist Leonard Leo, have penned opinion pieces in conservative outlets and taken to social media with entreaties for the high court to intervene.“Honolulu is attempting to use the law of one state to dominate the others, seizing for itself the power to control and regulate through judicial decree nationwide economic activity,” Carrie Severino, a Leo ally and former clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas, wrote this week in the National Review.The high court’s intervention would “prevent an assault on federalism,” wrote Severino, the president of JCN, once known as the Judicial Crisis Network and registered with the IRS as the Concord Fund. The fund is among the network of tax-exempt nonprofits led by Leo, co-chair of the Federalist Society and a judicial activist who helped select Trump’s Supreme Court nominees.Sunoco v. Honolulu is one of thousands of petitions filed with the Supreme Court each term. Each has only a small chance of being reviewed by the justices. The Supreme Court has gotten involved in the climate liability cases once before, siding with the oil industry in 2021 on a hypertechnical question in their quest to bump the litigation from state to federal judges.Since then, federal judges have largely agreed to let the cases proceed in state court, and the Supreme Court has declined to weigh in again.In addition to the media campaign surrounding Sunoco v. Honolulu, Republican attorneys general in 19 states last month took the unusual step of launching their own bid to kill lawsuits filed by some of their Democratic counterparts. The plea invokes the Supreme Court’s exclusive jurisdiction in legal battles between states.All of the Republican attorneys general involved in the state plea are listed as members of the Republican Attorneys General Association, which has counted the Concord Fund as one its biggest contributors. Many of the same red states also filed a “friend of the court” brief siding with the oil industry in the Honolulu case. The Center for Climate Integrity, which has encouraged local governments to seek litigation as a way of forcing oil companies to pay for the costs of climate change, said the fossil fuel industry is intensifying its efforts to persuade the conservative-dominated Supreme Court to quash the lawsuits. “This looks to be the most aggressive campaign yet to influence the court on behalf of Big Oil,” said Kert Davies, the group’s director of special investigations. “The fossil fuel industry and its allies are clearly threatened by these legal efforts to hold them accountable, and they’re going to unprecedented lengths to send out distress signals in the hope they’ll be rescued from standing trial.” Indeed, the industry’s Honolulu petition has attracted twice as many amicus briefs as the oil industry’s last effort to get the climate liability cases tossed, which the court rejected in January. The court noted at the time that Justice Brett Kavanaugh would have granted the case. It takes the vote of four justices to hear a case.
EPA Issues Onerous New GHG Reporting Rule, Worse than Thought - Marcellus Drilling News -- On May 14, 2024, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the final Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule requirements for petroleum and natural gas systems under 40 C.F.R. Part 98, Subpart W in the Federal Register(full copy of the 266-page rule included below). The changes to this rule resulted from passing the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) which required EPA to develop standards to collect payment on methane from facilities that exceed specific thresholds. (Incidentally, the IRA passed due to a single vote: Joe Manchin.) The final rule applies to a wide range (more than originally thought) of oil and gas facilities operated by the petroleum production, gas transmission, and utility industries. The new rule will impose *significant* budget-busting administrative and recordkeeping costs on those industries, as well as requiring them to pay fees for reported methane emissions. It is a flat-out attack on natural gas and oil.
New map shows vast potential for geothermal energy beneath entire US - Much of the vast fleet of U.S. military bases, coal plants and industrial facilities sits atop a prime resource for clean energy: layers of hot rock deep within the earth.That’s according to GeoMap, a new collaboration that combines the subsurface expertise of dozens of scientists organized by Project Innerspace, a nonprofit focused on building out the geothermal industry with the surface data of Google Maps. The results released Tuesday show the sprawling expanse of U.S. potential for geothermal, which taps heat from deep within the earth for clean, on-demand energy. That potential is especially red-hot in the western U.S., with striking hot spots also seen across the colder, older regions of the East.Geothermal is the focus of wide and bipartisan interest from entities ranging from the fossil fuel majors to climate groups to the U.S. Department of Energy — a focus that has led to a boom in new startups.In March, Jigar Shah, head of the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, told The Hill that $25 billion in investment over the next five years — less than the cost of the last nuclear plant to be built — could begin a rolling snowball of funding that could power between 80 and 260 million households by midcentury with clean, reliable power from below.But the next generation of geothermal is currently in its infancy, and the first few projects will be expensive and high-risk as the industry gets its feet under it. The point of GeoMap, its designers told The Hill, is to help planners, researchers and the general public identify the lowest-hanging fruit: the places where the best geothermal resources lie closest to both the surface and the industries that demand it. The purpose of GeoMap, Nelson said, is to “educate policymakers and the public about the potential for geothermal in any given jurisdiction — but more importantly, to then put it in the hands of people who are actually going to be building projects.”
Trump eyes cutting Interior, 'environment agencies' - Former President Donald Trump said he wants to cut the Interior Department if he returns to the White House, and indicated “environmental agencies” more broadly are also on the chopping block. Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee to run against President Joe Biden in November, revealed the plans in an interview with Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” that aired Sunday, when talking about wasteful government programs he’d slash. “We’re going to do, like, Department of Interior,” he told host Rachel Campos-Duffy, without expanding on his plans for the department that oversees energy production on federal land, among other responsibilities. “There’s so many things you can do,” he continued. “One of the things that is so bad for us is the environmental agencies. They make it impossible to do anything,” Trump said, going on to boast that he approved a liquefied natural gas export terminal in 24 hours after a company spent 14 years working on it. “The environmental agencies have stopped — they’ve stopped you from doing business in this country. And we did a great job,” he said. Asked to clarify Trump’s plans, spokesperson Karoline Leavitt contrasted the candidates’ energy records. “No one has done more damage to the American oil and gas industry than Joe Biden, who is controlled by the radical environmental extremists in his Administration, shut down the Keystone Pipeline on day one, restricted federal drilling permits, and continues to add burdensome regulations that do nothing but get in the way of production,” she said in a statement. “President Trump made America a net exporter of energy for the first time because he cut red tape and gave the industry more freedom to do what they do best — utilize the liquid gold under our feet to produce clean energy for America and the world — and he will do that again as soon as he gets back to the White House.” Oil and natural gas production and exports have continued to grow throughout Biden’s time in office, and continue to break records. The United States is the top producer of both oil and gas in the world.
US solar projects could boom amid deadline to use up tax-exempt panel glut (Reuters) - A two-year U.S. tariff holiday on solar panels from Southeast Asia expires on Thursday, starting the clock ticking for American project developers to use the huge amount of equipment they stockpiled duty-free over that period by the end of this year. The dynamic could result in a mini-boom in already red-hot U.S. solar installations, while also annoying the nascent domestic manufacturing industry which is keen to see developers make the switch to American-made gear. U.S. solar developers accumulated around 35 gigawatts (GW) of imported panels in U.S. warehouses since President Joe Biden lifted the duties on Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam in 2022 to help speed domestic projects to fight climate change, according to energy advisory firm Clean Energy Associates. That is nearly as much solar capacity as the U.S. will install during all of 2024, according to research firm Wood Mackenzie. The vast majority of the inventory is believed to have come from the targeted countries, and once the tariffs snap back into place on June 6, companies will have just 180 days to use that Southeast Asian stock or they will need to pay up. Companies have already dramatically increased project building, with utility-scale installations soaring 135% to 9.8 GW in the first quarter, according to Wood Mackenzie. "The temporary tariff moratorium did its job to ensure a sufficient supply of solar modules to support the need for increased clean energy deployment," said Stacy Ettinger, senior vice president of supply chain and trade for the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group. An attorney for U.S. solar manufacturers who are seeking new tariffs on Southeast Asian imports said it was unrealistic to expect all the inventory to be used in the next six months. "The tariff moratorium led to this surge and glut of inventories that we're seeing today, that has also contributed to the 50% price collapse in the market that is harming the U.S. industry," Tim Brightbill, a trade attorney with Wiley Rein, said, referring to domestic manufacturers of panels. The glut of panels marks an about-face for the U.S. industry, which until a year ago was struggling with tight supplies due to the coronavirus pandemic and concerns about solar equipment linked to forced labor, among other constraints.
Lawmakers escalate push for new solar import tariffs - A bipartisan coalition on Capitol Hill is pressing President Joe Biden to do more against unfair Chinese solar trade practices as a yearslong tariff moratorium expires Thursday.Two letters — one signed by moderate Democrats in the Senate and House and the other authored by House Republicans — ask Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. International Trade Commission Chair David Johanson to support a new petition designed to counteract Chinese solar panel manufacturing in four Southeast Asian countries.“China’s cheating unaddressed puts thousands of American solar jobs and the domestic solar industry in jeopardy,” lawmakers wrote in the letter led by Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Rep. Marcy Kaptur.The Republicans, led by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), said in their own missive that, “Despite significant investment, robust demand, and a growing workforce, American workers cannot compete when the deck is stacked against them so severely.”The issue has split Democrats and pitted solar installers against companies that make components in states like Ohio.Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has argued that imposing additional tariffs would hurt efforts to increase solar energy production and meet climate goals.“We’ve got a growing solar industry, not only in Arizona, but across this country,” Kelly said this year. “We can’t put ourselves in a situation that results in projects being shut down because they don’t have access to [solar panel] parts.”In 2022, the Biden administration — at the urging of solar installers and their allies on the Hill — put a two-year hold on tariffs for Chinese manufacturers who skirted duties by routing panels through Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.In April, a new coalition of seven leading U.S. solar manufacturers filed a petition with the Commerce Department requesting new tariffs on imports from four Southeast Asian nations.The group alleged that some Chinese companies had moved their heavily subsidized solar operations to skirt the penalties set to take effect this week. “With more than 40 GW of new wafer capacity built in Southeast Asia in recent years to avoid the circumvention ruling, we expect the end of this moratorium to have a relatively small impact on leveling the playing field for our domestic industry,” said Tim Brightbill, lead counsel for the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee. Along with Brown and Kaptur, several of the signatories of the Democratic letter are lawmakers facing tight reelections, including Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.). The Biden administration did levy new tariffs on Chinese solar panel parts and electric vehicles in May, but those would not affect the Chinese-controlled solar production in Southeast Asia. The International Trade Commission (ITC) will vote on their preliminary determination in the new tariff investigation on Friday.
Data Centers Set to Consume 9% of U.S. Electricity by 2030 -Yves here. Many readers took interest in a recent post where, using a MIT Reader piece as a point of departure, we discussed the need to focus on survival, as in how to preserve what is worthwhile from our civilization, versus sustainability, which is a “business as usual” fantasy that with the right techno-tweaks like moar solar panels and use of electricity and at most an itty bit of hair-shirtery, we can prevent bad climate change outcomes.This post indicates we need to lower our hopes even further. The idea that we are going to accelerate biosphere damage for the sake of AI and cryptocurrency says what passes for our civilization is not worth saving. But you can play the ponies in the meantime.Originally published at OilPrice
- Data centers are expected to consume up to 9% of US electricity by 2030, a surge in demand will require significant investment in power generation and infrastructure.
- This Fourth Industrial Revolution is a boon for companies in the power sector, renewable energy industry, and data center equipment providers.
- Goldman Sachs sees a $50 billion investment opportunity in U.S, power generation by 2030.
Over the past few years, dozens of pundits and industry experts have laid out prognostications that the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution will drive unprecedented electricity demand growth in the United States and globally. Last year, the power sector consulting firm Grid Strategies published a report titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over,” which pointed out that United States grid planners—utilities and regional transmission operators (RTOs)—had nearly doubled growth projections in their five-year demand forecasts. For the first time in decades, demand for electricity in the U.S. is projected to grow by as much as 15% over the next decade driven by the Artificial Intelligence (AI), clean energy, and cryptocurrencies boom.AI, in particular, is expected to drive a lot of that surge in power demand. According to the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), data centers will consume up to 9% of total electricity generated in the United States by the end of the decade, up from ~1.5% currently thanks to the rapid adoption of power-hungry technologies such as generative AI. For some perspective, last year, the U.S. industrial sector energy consumed 1.02 million GWh, good for 26% of U.S. electricity consumption.That prediction might sound bold, but might be warranted. After all, AI servers are real power-guzzlers: Digiconomist estimates that a single NVIDIA DGX A100 server consumes as much electricity as several U.S. households combined. Early ChatGPT searches typically consumed 10x the amount of power used by Google search, with that figure set to rise. AI tasks typically demand much more powerful hardware than traditional computing tasks. The global picture is even more bullish for companies in the power sector: According to Sreedhar Sistu, vice president of artificial intelligence for Schneider Electric, excluding China, AI represents 4.3 GW of global power demand and could grow almost five-fold by 2028.There’s a downside to explosive power demand growth: According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), these mega-trends are straining U.S. energy supplies leading to energy sources struggling to keep pace. NERC has projected that power demand in the summer of 2024 will hit its highest level since 2016 while winter demand will hit its highest level since at least 2015.“The [Bulk Power System] is currently forecast to have its highest demand and energy growth rates since 2014, mainly driven by electrification and projections for growth in electric vehicles over this assessment period,” NERC wrote. According to NERC, resource growth is “becoming more challenging” as more and more fossil fuel generation sources are retired adding that “[m]ore than 83GW of generator retirements are planned through 2033, and more are expected. Generation plans need to consider growing energy needs and grid stability.’’
Thermal and compressed air storage cheaper than lithium-ion batteries for 8-plus hour durations: BNEF -The least expensive long-duration energy storage technologies are now cheaper than lithium-ion batteries for discharge durations longer than eight hours, according to a May 30 report from BloombergNEF. Fully installed systems’ global average capex costs were $232/kWh for thermal energy storage and $293/kWh for compressed air storage, compared with $304/kWh for four-hour lithium-ion battery storage, according to the report. However, the global averages reflect significantly lower capex costs in China, BNEF Clean Energy Specialist and report co-author Yiyi Zhou said. “While other nations are still in the early stages of commercializing LDES technologies, China is already developing gigawatt-hour scale projects, driven by favorable policies,” particularly for compressed-air energy storage and flow batteries, Zhou said. A January study sponsored by the California Energy Commission found that the California Independent System Operator’s grid would require up to 5 GW of LDES by 2045 if it retains existing gas generation assets or up to 37 GW of LDES if those assets retire, underscoring the scale of the role LDES could play in a deeply decarbonized future. BNEF examined seven energy storage technology groups that can discharge for durations of at least six hours, including compressed air, compressed gas, pumped hydro, thermal, gravity, flow batteries and lithium-ion batteries. Cost data for most technology groups came from projects deployed globally between 2018 and 2024.At $232/kWh, thermal energy storage was the cheapest technology group, followed by compressed air storage. At $643/kWh, gravity storage had the highest average global capex cost, BNEF said.In non-China markets, installed LDES system costs were 54% higher for thermal energy storage, 66% higher for flow batteries and 68% higher for compressed air storage, BNEF said.According to Zhou, the disparity stems from greater adoption of LDES technologies in China.“While other nations are still in the early stages of commercializing LDES technologies, China is already developing gigawatt-hour scale projects, driven by favorable policies,” Zhou said in a statement. Commercialization is particularly far along for compressed air and flow battery systems, she added. In contrast, capex costs for compressed gas storage systems are 42% higher in China. Chinese compressed gas storage system costs are based on demonstration rather than commercial-scale projects, BNEF said.Operating and maintenance costs for LDES systems in China also tend to be lower than for systems elsewhere due to the Chinese industry’s maturity and larger project sizes, BNEF said. One long-duration storage executive questioned whether economies of scale could fully explain lower Chinese capex costs for compressed air, flow battery and thermal energy storage systems.“There are domestic market conditions in China that frankly can’t be replicated in other markets for commercial viability,” said Curt VanWalleghem, co-founder and CEO of Hydrostor, which develops and operates energy storage systems that use compressed air, rock and water. “We're not convinced that the amount of LDES deployment in China is related to technological innovation or scale, but rather is likely related to factors like domestic labor rates and government subsidies.”Accordingly, while China is likely to be an important LDES market in the future, “[Hydrostor’s] focus is on ensuring policies in markets like the U.S., the U.K., India and Australia acknowledge the importance of developing LDES for the continued reliability of the grid, and that they outline timelines for those procurements,” VanWalleghem added.
FERC Closer to Attaining Five Commissioners as Senate Committee Advances Biden Nominees - With FERC in danger of losing a voting quorum by month’s end, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on Tuesday advanced three Biden administration nominees for a full Senate vote. Democrats David Rosner and Judy Chang, along with Republican Lindsay See, were grilled in March by the Senate committee, which is chaired by Joe Manchin (I-WV). The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s business meeting lasted less than 30 minutes before the nominees were affirmed. Rosner, a staffer for the Senate Energy committee, was recommended to the president by Manchin. Chang is an energy economics and policy expert and formerly was the Massachusetts undersecretary of Energy and Climate Solutions. See, Solicitor General of West Virginia, was recommended by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell,..
China's EV Boom Sparks Trade Tensions with US and EU - The United States and the European Union fear the Chinese electric vehicle competition, the founder and CEO of China’s EV manufacturing giant BYD said on Friday. “There are many examples of politicians in other countries who are worried about EVs in China,” BYD founder, CEO, and chairman Wang Chuanfu said at an industry event in China, as carried by Bloomberg.The Chinese billionaire said that the idea to slap tariffs on Chinese EVs shows that China’s electric vehicle industry is strong. “If you are not strong enough, they will not be afraid of you,” Wang said in a speech at the event. While U.S. and European automakers struggle with weaker demand for electric vehicles, China is churning out a growing number of small and cheap EVs that are taking over the domestic car market and other markets in Asia.The EU launched in October 2023 anti-subsidy investigations into EU imports of EVs from China to determine whether the value chains in China benefit from illegal subsidies.The findings of the investigation will establish whether it is in the EU's interest to impose anti-subsidy duties on EV imports from China, the European Commission said at the time. The EU probe into the Chinese subsidies is set to conclude by November, but the bloc could impose tariffs as early as July.Rumors are circulating that the EU could impose a 20% tariff. China, for its part, has threatened a 25% car tariff on EU and U.S. vehicles with big engines, which will hit higher-end European brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW the most.Sales of China-made electric cars in Europe went up by 23% over the first four months of the year despite efforts by EU authorities to set up barriers for these imports in a bid to protect local manufacturers.Some 119,300 electric cars manufactured in China were registered in Western Europe, including the UK, between January and April this year, the Financial Times reported earlier this week, citing data compiled by Schmidt Automotive Research. Over half of these, or 54%, were vehicles of Western European brands as well as Teslas and Japanese-brand EVs. The rest were Chinese EV brands.
Biden’s Chinese Tariffs Could Hamper E-Bike Sales in the U.S. - In May, the Biden administration slapped new tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including a 100 percent levy on electric vehicles. Though few Chinese EVs are sold in the U.S., the decision reflects atense trade war between the two countries, and the administration’s fear that China will soon bombard the market with cheap electric cars. However, a different type of vehicle may be getting caught in the crossfire. On May 19, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that e-bike batteries will be subject to new 25 percent tariffs starting in 2026, a jump from the 7.5 percent tax currently levied on these products. At the same time, a provision that allowed Chinese imports of e-bikes and their parts to be excluded, since 2018, from an existing 25 percent tariff is set to expire on June 14—meaning prices could go up much sooner than 2026, reports the Verge. According to experts, these tariffs are coming at an exceptionally bad time: After initially struggling to take off, e-bike sales peaked in 2022, but have fluctuated since then. In recent years, government incentive programs have been enacted across the U.S. to help bolster the market, but even these may not be enough to help the average consumer afford an e-bike, which environmentalists have longed hope will help get gas-guzzling cars off the road. After years of false starts over the past few decades, the e-bike industry in the U.S. seemed to hit its stride in 2022, when around 1.1 million e-bikes were sold in the country, almost quadruple the number sold in 2019, according to the Department of Energy. As a former NYC resident, I personally had to learn how to dodge the slew of e-bikes darting across the street while walking in Manhattan. Though sales are still relatively high compared with the early days, the e-bike industry in the U.S. and Europe has since faced setbacks, with layoffs and a few major e-bike businesses going bankrupt, including Dutch company VanMoof and U.S. company Bird in 2023. One of the biggest barriers e-bikes continue to face is cost. A typical standard bike costs a few hundred to a thousand dollars, and “pedal-assist” e-bikes—in which a rider’s pedaling engages the motor and provides some exercise benefit—can go for as little as a few hundred dollars. However, many e-bikes with more power fall in the thousands of dollars range, with high-end models reaching up to $6,000. A number of cities such as Denver, Atlanta and Columbus, have created e-bike incentive programs to help prop up the market—and its potential emissions reductions. Often in the form of cash vouchers or rebates, these programs can bring down the cost of an e-bike anywhere from $250 to $500. (You can explore if your city or state offers one here.) Research finds that these programs do support greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, a recent study found that these incentive programs may not offer cities the best bang for their buck climate-wise. After completing a nationwide survey of e-bike consumers, researchers found that a government using a point-of-purchase discount would have to distribute about $4,000 in incentives to generate one additional e-bike purchase. This isn’t because people are buying insanely expensive bikes, but rather their models showed that more than 80 percent of the people likely would have bought a bike without the discount.
Lithium battery fire worries push City Council committee to OK safety standards - Chicago Sun-Times - Fires that erupt from the batteries are ‘not like a regular flame,’ said Patrick Cleary, president of the Chicago Fire Fighters Union, noting that ‘even after they’re put out they can start to regenerate heat again and start up again, especially with cars.’ With mounting concerns across the country that electric bicycles, e-scooters, and lithium-ion batteries can cause deadly fires, a Chicago City Council committee Wednesday advanced regulations that would require they meet safety standards. Ald. Debra Silverstein (50th), chair of the Committee on License and Consumer Protection, pointed to lithium-ion batteries being one of the leading causes of fire in New York City. In2023 there were 270 fires, 150 people injured and 18 killed from fires caused by the batteries, according to the New York City Fire Department.Chicago hasn’t seen a rash of fires on the same scale. But in February, investigators found a Park Ridge house fire that caused $150,000 in damage was caused by a lithium-ion battery in an e-bike exploding while it was being charged. In 2021, a fire at an abandoned paper mill in Morris that contained approximately “184,000 lbs of lithium batteries” led to the evacuation of several thousand people.Silverstein said she would like for Chicago to follow New York, where Amazon has stopped selling uncertified lithium-ion batteries after the city sent a cease-and-desist letter following newly-passed regulations.“We’re starting here in Chicago, but we’d love to get this statewide,” Silverstein said. “These e-bikes are very, very dangerous.”Lithium-ion batteries can be found in electric bikes and scooters, cars, laptops, phones and more, and the proliferation of batteries in products has “led to battery chemistries that pack higher energy in smaller packages” that need enhanced safety regulations, according to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission.Fires that erupt from the batteries are “not like a regular flame,” said Patrick Cleary, president of the Chicago Fire Fighters Union, noting that “even after they’re put out they can start to regenerate heat again and start up again, especially with cars. ... We put the cars out, we take them to the junkyard, they start up on fire again. So these batteries are very dangerous.”The ordinance received support from e-bike manufacturer Radio Flyer and Old Town-based e-bike retailer Electric Movement. (The CEO of Radio Flyer also chairs the board of Chicago Public Media, which oversees the Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ.)The ordinance would allow fines ranging from $100 to $2,000 for distributing devices, such as e-bikes, that don’t meet safety certifications or for selling lithium-ion batteries assembled with cells removed from used batteries. The ordinance does not prohibit batteries from being recycled, and a news release from Silverstein’s office states it would “not impact the vast majority of e-bike brands or bikeshare providers such as Divvy.”The fires are more like explosions, said Robert Slone, a senior vice president and chief scientist for UL Solutions, a Northbrook-headquartered safety science company and testing laboratory. Slone stressed regulations are needed to try to prevent the fires from happening in the first place.“Micro-mobility equipment, like e-bikes and e-scooters, are a convenient, climate-friendly transportation option,” Slone said. “However, a failure to meet product safety standards has sparked a safety crisis.”Legislation before Congress would direct the Consumer Product Safety Commission to issue a safety standard for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. But regulations at a local level will give officials enforcement teeth now, Slone said.“When we see fraudulent products, whether it’s an online portal, or a retail shop or whatever, we have a way to then address that and surface that and take care of it,” Slone said.
Senators take highway official to task over EV chargers - The Biden administration’s $7.5 billion plan to build a network of electric vehicle chargers is still moving slowly, although the pace of construction is expected to improve soon, a senior administration official said Wednesday on Capitol Hill.To date, dozens of charging ports have been installed in six states under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure initiative (NEVI) from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, Federal Highway Administration head Shailen Bhatt said.That drew criticism from members of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, who said they’re also concerned about progress on other parts of the infrastructure law.“It is a big deal because you can’t really depend upon an electric car if there’s not a charging capability, and the fact that we passed this bill years ago and not one charging station has been built in my state,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said during a hearing.
Big winner in Biden’s EV charging revolution: Gas stations --When Americans steer their electric vehicles off the highway and into shiny new charging stations — many paid for with federal tax dollars — they’re likely to find them in a curiously familiar place: the gas station. More than half of the charging stations being built so far from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law are rising at truck stops and gasoline stations, according to data exclusively provided to E&E News by EVAdoption, an EV data consultancy. In essence, the law’s $7.5 billion pot for charging is reinforcing the very fossil-fuel infrastructure that the EV era would seem to consign to oblivion. That raises the prospect that money intended to cut emissions could throw a lifeline to companies that traditionally have raised them. Even so, many experts say the two industries are a natural fit. “I’ve always kind of assumed that the combination of fueling station and convenience stop would dominate,” said Loren McDonald, the founder of EVAdoption. “They’re safe. They’re well lit. They have bathrooms on site. They have restaurants and stores. They check a lot of the boxes.” After initially resisting EVs and their charging needs, fueling centers are now using their lobbying strength and financial might to win federal dollars they say are a necessary cushion to survive an expensive gas-to-EV transition. “Now is when you really start seeing [gas stations] in a big way in the funding programs, really taking center stage,” said Lori Clark, who oversees EV strategy at the North Central Texas Council of Governments, a regional planning organization. The clamor for charging cash crosses blue and red state lines. The EVAdoption data shows that infrastructure law awards are set to transform gas stations in states that former President Donald Trump won in 2020, including Texas, Ohio and Utah, as well as states President Joe Biden won, such as Rhode Island and New Mexico. Service stations have an upper hand in this first wave of subsidies because they occupy the very real estate where the federal government wants to build a charging backbone: at 50-mile intervals along the interstates and no more than a mile from highway exits. But that’s not the only reason. Behind the scenes, service-station industry lobbyists have been working to tilt the rules to their advantage. As a result, the biggest winners at the dawn of the EV-charging era are some of the biggest fossil-fuel sellers — familiar names like Pilot Flying J, Love’s Travel Stops, Sheetz, Circle K and Wawa — along with the retail division of oil major Shell.
Alliant Energy wants Edgewater open as natural gas plant, committed to energy goals - Alliant Energy said it’s "fully committed" to clean energy as it looks to transition the Edgewater Generating Station to natural gas in the next several years. The utility company will not shut down the coal plant by 2025, as previously planned, rather announcing in May it would file a request to convert it in 2028. This decision was motivated by Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s energy grid advancements and TC Energy’s plan to extend a gas pipeline in Wisconsin, possibly within 10 miles of the Edgewater plant. Alliant Energy spokesperson Cindy Tomlinson said the utility company can leverage the opportunity to keep the plant open and ensure it has enough capacity to provide reliable and cost-effective service to customers.Echoing sentiments from Alliant Energy Wisconsin President and Senior Vice President of Operations David de Leon, Tomlinson said: "It's really about pursuing that path that best bolsters that continued reliability, drives affordability and shows our ongoing commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Those are the things that we're striving for as we continue to plan and as we continue to deliver the energy that our customers need.” This transition would help Alliant retain 350 MW of energy capacity and avoid about $60 million in customer costs through 2030 as it works on cleaner energy projects, a news release said.
EPA balked at TVA’s fossil fuel plant, then stepped aside - Top EPA officials supported a rebuke of the Tennessee Valley Authority’s environmental review of a gas-fueled power plant this spring, but they backed off when the electric utility ignored their criticism. A meeting between EPA staffers and TVA aides in March didn’t resolve the dispute — and a second meeting to discuss the plan to bring new fossil fuel energy online never happened, according to records obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News. By early April, EPA let the matter drop after TVA decided to go ahead with the natural gas project west of Knoxville, Tennessee. EPA never brought the clash to the White House Council on Environmental Quality, which is responsible for implementing the National Environmental Policy Act. Documents reviewed by E&E News outline how EPA leaders in Washington grappled with TVA’s plan to retire the nine-unit Kingston Fossil Plant, one of the largest coal plants in the utility’s fleet. In its place, TVA intends to build a gas, solar and battery storage complex. The episode demonstrates the limits of the Biden administration’s drive to decarbonize the power sector, as the utility — part of the federal government like EPA — did not heed the agency’s plea to prepare a supplemental environmental impact statement. Green groups have blasted TVA’s gas proposal as both expensive and out of step with U.S. climate goals. “It’s absurd that TVA continues to dismiss EPA’s feedback, particularly because the agency has raised concerns that the plans to build gas at Kingston will cost ratepayers over a billion dollars more than reliable, renewable alternatives,” said Chelsea Barnes, director of government affairs at the green group Appalachian Voices, in a statement. In a March letter, EPA said TVA’s final EIS for the plant’s replacement failed to address concerns the agency identified in the draft version. That included a “limited range” of alternatives, an incomplete assessment of the project’s effects on communities historically overburdened by pollution and a failure to show how tax incentives provided by President Joe Biden’s 2022 climate law may affect each option’s costs. Emails obtained under the Freedom of Information Act show that EPA sought to address those concerns with TVA after sending its letter. While one meeting between EPA and the utility occurred, the emails indicate a second meeting requested by EPA did not take place. EPA told E&E News last week that it fulfilled its obligations on the gas project with its review of TVA’s final EIS.
44 Senators, 138 House Mbrs Intro Resolution to Block EPA Power Reg -Marcellus Drilling News -The Bidenistas at the EPA attacked coal and gas-fired power plants in April, threatening to destabilize the existing electric power grid with new regulations (see EPA Rolls Out Final Regs Attacking Coal & Gas-Fired Power). Using 1,020 pages of new regulations, which will go into effect this year, all coal-fired plants that are slated to remain operational in the long term and all new gas-fired power plants will be required to control (capture) 90% of their carbon emissions using expensive and unproven technology. Translation: New gas-fired plants won’t get built, and most, if not all, coal plants will shutter, with the result that electricity will, by necessity, be rationed (see WSJ Calls Biden EPA Power Plant Regs a Plan to “Ration Electricity”). A number of lawsuits have been filed against the new regulation. Now, members of Congress are adding their voices, intending to block the new reg using a Congressional Joint Resolution. The resolution was simultaneously introduced yesterday in the Senate and House.
Battles Brew Over Radioactive Wastewater Discharge from Shuttered Nuclear Plants -- An effort by New York to ban radioactive waste from polluting the Hudson River has embroiled the state in a bitter legal battle emblematic of challenges facing communities across the country as they wrestle with what to do with the waste from shuttered nuclear power plants.At the heart of the matter in New York is a law enacted last August that aims to block plans by Holtec International to discharge more than one million gallons of radioactive wastewater into the river during the decommissioning of the Indian Point nuclear power plant. The company sued the state in April, arguing that the discharge was allowed under federal regulations, which preempt state regulation.The state filed a countersuit, asking the US District Court for the Southern District of New York to dismiss Holtec’s claims and validating the state new.The United States has long had the largest nuclear power plant fleet in the world, with nuclear power accounting for roughly 20% of annual electricity generation from the late 1980s into 2020, according to the US Congressional Research Service. There are currently more than 90 commercial nuclear reactors in operation at 54 nuclear power plants in 28 states. But many have been closed over the last decade, with more scheduled for closure, due to economic challenges and battles with environmental and public health advocates who cite a number of risks associated with the facilities.The battlegrounds extend far beyond New York. Holtec is facing similar community opposition to its plan to discharge radioactive wastewater from the decommissioning Pilgrim nuclear plant in eastern Massachusetts into Cape Cod Bay, for instance. “It’s very clear no one wants this radioactive waste in the water,” said Santosh Nandabalan, an organizer with Food & Water Watch who campaigns against the radioactive wastewater dumping. “I think Holtec needs to get with the program now that there’s a law, and we’re going to hold them accountable to it by continuing to use this people power to ensure our Hudson River does not become a dumping ground.”Holtec spokesman Patrick O’Brien told The New Lede that Holtec’s goal is to “safely decommission these plants and return the property to be economic engines for the communities that they reside in.” He said the company has “been open and forthright… answering questions as they have arisen.”Opponents to discharging the radioactive wastewater, according to O’Brien, are trying to “push fear over facts.” He said the “reality [is] that you get more radiation from ingesting a banana or brasil nuts that you would from discharge.” Proponents of nuclear wastewater discharge argue that contaminants will be so diluted in the receiving water body that they will pose little if any risk. They say that environmental discharge of radioactive substances happens routinely in the nuclear power industry and can be safely managed.Radioactive spent fuel from the power plants is generally stored on site in liquid pools or dry casks, and this waste is accumulating by about 2,000 metric tons each year with no permanent repository for burying the waste established.Water used for cooling and spent fuel storage, contaminated with radioactive substances, also has to be managed and disposed of, and discharging the treated wastewater into local waterways is a common practice when nuclear power plants are operating as well as when they are decommissioning.The decommissioning plan for the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in California, for example, involves discharging treated wastewater into the ocean, while other radioactive waste will be either stored on site or transported off site.Arnie Gundersen, chief engineer at FaireWinds Energy and a nuclear industry decommissioning expert, also said that federal regulators are not looking at the complete picture of environmental contamination when authorizing radioactive discharges from nuclear energy facilities. Wastewater from nuclear power plants contains tritium – a radioactive isotope of hydrogen – which can be hazardous and potentially carcinogenic. Dumping large volumes of this radioactive wastewater into waterways already contaminated with toxins like PFAS or PCBs risks creating even greater contamination issues, he said. He noted that the Hudson River, for example, is known to be polluted with PCBs. “There’s this thing called synergistic toxicity,” Gundersen said. “The NRC regulations don’t take that into account, and the EPA regulations don’t take that into account.” The science around how tritium may interact with or affect other chemical contaminants is not well understood, which warrants a precautionary approach when it comes to disposing of radioactive wastewater from nuclear plants. “There’s no doubt in my mind there’s not enough science to allow it to be dumped.”
White House forges deals with fusion pioneers - After a year of challenging negotiations, the Department of Energy has reached grant agreements with eight pioneering fusion technology companies seeking to prove that the energy of the stars can be delivered to the nation’s power grid. The grants are the first round in a congressionally authorized Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program. The companies will share an initial $46 million to support their competing campaigns to develop pilot plants that could demonstrate the commercial viability of fusion reactors. Fusion reactors promise to produce carbon-free power by slamming hydrogen atoms together under enormous heat and pressure, without the threatening radiation that today’s fission reactors must manage. The agreements were announced at a conference Thursday at the White House that brought government and private-sector fusion experts together to mark the second anniversary of President Joe Biden’s “Decadal Vision” commitment to developing fusion power. The Biden administration’s big show of support for a source of clean power that could have decades to go — one that requires extraordinary scientific progress — is partly targeted at members of Congress who control future funding. “We have had remarkable breakthroughs in fusion research,” DOE Deputy Secretary David Turk told the meeting. “We need to build on that momentum,” Turk said, citing DOE’s publication of a new long-term fusion strategy document issued Thursday. “But it doesn’t just happen on its own. … We need to have that urgency, that focus to get things done as quickly as we possibly can.” The companies in the program are relative newcomers in the energy industry, with fractions of capital compared to the sector’s giants. But many have strong connections with a widespread research and scientific community that has been pursuing fusion science for a half-century.
Gas line cut 6 minutes before deadly explosion in Youngstown, Ohio: NTSB - KAKEThe National Transportation Safety Board said an inactive but still pressurized gas line was cut six minutes before a devastating explosion rocked downtown Youngstown, Ohio. The blast occurred near Central Square on Tuesday afternoon and impacted a building that contains a Chase bank and apartments. One person was killed and seven others injured in the explosion, officials said. The NTSB sent a team of pipeline and hazardous materials investigators to Youngstown to investigate the natural gas explosion and were able to speak with workers who were in the basement of the building prior to the explosion on Friday. The preliminary investigation suggests that the workers were in the building to clear out old utility infrastructure from the basement and vault area, including old piping, as part of a city project to fill the vault area and replace the sidewalks above, according to NTSB board member Tom Chapman. The workers made two initial cuts into piping along the basement wall, he said. After making a third cut, "The crew immediately realized that there was a problem and the gas had been released," Chapman said during a press briefing on Friday. The workers quickly evacuated the basement and notified bank employees of the gas leak, Chapman said. They pulled the fire alarm and at least one worker called 911, he said. The workers were also "instrumental" in helping evacuate residents in the apartments, he said. The explosion occurred approximately six minutes after the cut, Chapman said. No gas was smelled during the day as the crew was working in the basement, indicating that there wasn't an ongoing leak, Chapman said. "The crew was unaware that one of the pipes in the vault was pressurized at the time. Nor did the work crew have reason to believe gas was present in the pipe," Chapman said. The NTSB had said on Thursday that a cut to the pressurized service line is a "central focus" of their investigation to determine the cause of the gas release and explosion. Following the explosion, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and Enbridge Gas, the service provider for the area, had gained access to the basement and discovered the cut to the pressurized but inactive below-ground service line, Chapman said. Chapman said there is no evidence to suggest anything "nefarious" in the incident. "All indications are it was very much an accident," he said. The investigation will look at why that apparently abandoned service line was still pressurized and for how long, he said. "Part of what we'll be looking at is what are the proper procedures and were those proper procedures followed," he said. Chapman called the damage in the explosion "stunning" and said NTSB investigators have been unable to access the building due to concerns about its structural integrity. "The damage to the building is devastating," he said. The floor collapsed into the basement, which was flooded, officials said. The body of a man who was an employee of the bank -- identified as Akil Drake -- was recovered from the basement early Wednesday morning, officials said. The building and a neighboring hotel have closed and streets in the surrounding area are shut off to traffic indefinitely due to the potential for structural collapse, authorities said. Chapman said the NTSB received a cloud-based video from Chase on Friday that will help them understand where bank employees were at the time of the explosion. The NTSB’s investigation is expected to last approximately one week, with a preliminary report anticipated in about 30 days. Final reports typically take between 12 and 24 months to complete.
Surveillance video captures building explosion that left 1 dead, 7 injured - New video shows a deadly explosion in Youngstown, Ohio. Surveillance cameras inside the building captured the moment it happened. You can see the moment it happens, when the elevator completely collapses.Eventually, firefighters get into the building and crews rescued multiple people inside.One person was killed and 7 other were hurt.Investigators say all this was caused by a construction mistake. NTSB board member Tom Chapman said preliminary investigation shows workers were in the basement to clear out piping and other outdated infrastructure and debris from the basement and vault area — which extends underneath the sidewalk next to the building — in anticipation of a city project to fill in the area and replace the sidewalks. A crew of five people and a supervisor had been on site that day and four of the workers were there when it happened, he said.
2 remain in hospital after deadly building explosion in Ohio - Two people remain in the hospital following the deadly building explosion in Ohio, according to CBS affiliate WOIO-19 TV.Seven people were initially hospitalized, but officials say the two still admitted are in stable condition. Around 3 p.m. on May 28, crews responded to the Realty Building in downtown Youngstown on reports of a massive explosion, according to a previous News Center 7 report. Chase Bank employee, Akil Drake, 27, was found dead.According to WOIO-19, Drake’s body was found around 11:30 p.m. The Cuyahoga County Medical Examiner will determine his cause of death. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) found that the explosion happened after crews working in the basement area intentionally cut a gas line not knowing it was pressurized, according to a previous News Center 7 report. The crew was there to clear out piping, outdated infrastructure, and debris out of the basement in anticipation of a city project that would replace the sidewalks, CBS affiliate WKBN-27 reported.Workers told NTSB investigators that they didn’t smell gas earlier in the day as they were working.NTSB Board member Chapman said the workers didn’t know the line was pressurized or contained gas.The explosion happened six minutes after crews cut the line, Chapman said.NTSB is leading the investigation into the explosion.
NE Ohio spotlighted for collaborative clean energy transition | WYSO Local and national leaders gathered in Cleveland Wednesday to highlight how Northeast Ohio is embracing clean energy, along with the environmental and economic benefits that are coming from it.During a panel discussion hosted by America Is All In, a national climate action coalition, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb pointed to programs like Cleveland Builds that work to ensure communities of color have the resources to benefit from the energy transition."From giving them funding to access transportation, to get to training programs or childcare to make sure that their children have good education while they're off at work getting trained for the green jobs of the future," Bibb said, "we're meeting residents where they are to make sure they could be a part of this transformation in our city."The city of Akron has "a little bit of catching up to do," Mayor Shammas Malik said, but its partnership with climate solutions nonprofit Power A Clean Future Ohio will allow the city to catch up with Cleveland’s sustainability efforts."In the city of Akron, for a long time, we viewed sustainability as something we can't afford," Malik said. "We've done some good work around our water and other things, but we really have not brought a ton of focus to it."Since taking office, Malik appointed Casey Shevlin as the city's first director of sustainability. Other climate-friendly initiatives have focused on public outreach and trust building, Malik said."We have to show people that they can trust us in making these decisions and making these investments, so we're not putting the burden on them that they really can't bear," he said. "I'm so excited to share with people some of these programs and to say, 'Hey, look! In communities across Ohio, we are doing this, and we're doing it in a way that is actually going to bring you resilience, that is going to bring you a better bottom line."
New Ohio Power Siting Board Rules: Effective May 30, 2024 - JD Supra -On July 20, 2023, the Ohio Power Siting Board (Board or OPSB) issued its determination on a comprehensive set of proposed revisions to the rules governing the procedures before the OPSB and its siting criteria. [1] The Order culminates in a multi-year process that began with a series of workshops at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a subsequent stakeholder comment process.[2] Following this Order, a rehearing process took place, leading to some modifications to the revised rules. A copy of the OPSB’s Order, with all rule revisions, can be accessed here, and the Order on Rehearing adopting some modifications can be accessed here; both are on the case docket (21-902-GE-BRO).The OPSB is a state agency in Ohio responsible for siting certain energy generation and transmission infrastructure facilities that fall within the definition of a “major utility facility,” including utility-scale wind and solar projects. The following types of projects are treated as a “major utility facility” and subject to the multi-phase approval process of the OPSB:
- Energy generation facilities. Wind projects that are designed for, or capable of, operation at an aggregate capacity of five or more megawatts (MW), and all other energy generation projects that are designed for, or capable of, operation of 50 MW or more. In recent years, jurisdiction has been applied to stand-alone battery storage projects with capacity of 50 MW or greater.
- Intrastate gas pipeline. Facilities greater than 500 feet in length, with an outside diameter greater than nine inches, and designed for transporting gas at a maximum allowable pressure in excess of 125 pounds per square inch.
- Intrastate electric transmission lines. Facilities and associated facilities with a design value of 100 kilovolts or more.
The impact of the OPSB’s rules is far-reaching and impacts everyone from utility-scale solar developers to independent power producers to traditional public utilities.Approximately two dozen stakeholders representing utilities, generation developers, consumer advocates, environmental groups, landowners, and farmers formally participated in the rulemaking process. The rules formally took effect on May 30, 2024.
Ohio Utica 1Q24 Numbers – Encino Dominates with 51% of Oil Prod. -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) released production numbers for the first quarter 2024 yesterday. Oil production, led by Encino Energy wells, is the headline news. Oil production from Encino represented 51.3% of all Ohio Utica oil production in 1Q. Ascent Resources was the next closest oil producer, with 21.8% of Utica oil produced. As for natural gas, Ascent Resources dominated with 42.8% of all Ohio Utica natgas production. In the number two slot was Gulfport Energy with 17.6% of natgas production, followed closely by Encino with 16.0% of natgas production. Below, we have lists of the top 25 gas and oil wells by production in 1Q24, along with charts showing gas and oil production by both drillers and by county. You’ll only find this news (and this level of detail) here on MDN.
ODNR Issues Forced Pooling Order for Encino Well in Harrison County - Marcellus Drilling News - On May 23, the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) issued a pooling order to Encino Energy that combines a number of properties into a single unit for drilling wells. The total of the surface land pooled is 1,081.076 acres, located in Stock Township, Harrison County, Ohio. There are 121 (!) properties or pieces of property involved, largely due to the unit passing under what appears to be a housing development. This type of thing goes on frequently — the ODNR issuing a pooling order. What’s different and unusual about this one is that the ODRN appears to have denied a request by Encino to raise the penalty against those who refused to sign a lease but ended up being forced to participate anyway.
Wells in Columbiana County Strike More Oil – Youngstown Business Journal – Horizontal wells exploring the Utica/Point Pleasant shale formation in Columbiana County have struck oil once again. According to production results reported by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Columbiana County wells owned by EAP Ohio, a subsidiary of Houston-based Encino Energy, produced 457,269 barrels of oil during the first quarter of 2024.Among the most productive was EAP’s Lehwald well pad in Butler Township, records show. Four wells at the site collectively produced 298,249 barrels over a 90-day period.All four of the wells – drilled during the last three months of 2023 – were among the 25 best oil producers in the state during the period out of 3,389 wells reporting results, according to ODNR. The Lehwald 20H well, for example, ranked as the seventh highest producer – yielding 97,274 barrels over the quarter. The Lehwald 3H ranked the 13th best, with production at 79,812 barrels. The pad’s 5H well yielded 61,618 barrels and was the 19th highest oil producer in the state. The Lehwald 1H well ranked 23rd, with 57,545 barrels during the first quarter, data show. In all, EAP’s wells in Ohio produced 3,708,011 barrels of oil during the period – or 51.3% of all the oil production throughout the state. Ohio reported its wells produced 7,227,503 barrels of oil in the first quarter, a 10% gain compared with 6,549,638 barrels produced a year ago during the same period. “Encino produced over half of the entire statewide oil production again this quarter,” Encino spokeswoman Jackie Stewart said in a statement. “The results continue to confirm that the Ohio Utica oil play is real. The continuous significant quarter over quarter growth is undeniable. Encino remains optimistic about the Utica Shale, and we plan to add a fourth rig next month to continue capturing its success.” The No. 1 oil well in the state was EAP’s Burdette 201H well in Harrison County, which produced 139,413 barrels. Four other wells at that location rounded out the top five most productive oil wells in Ohio. Columbiana County’s section of the Utica – traditionally known for its high volumes of natural gas and wet gas – has for the past year delivered skyrocketing oil production that is out of character for the northern tier of the play. First quarter oil numbers for 2024 easily outdistanced previous records achieved in Columbiana County, data show. During the third quarter of 2023, Columbiana County wells yielded a then high of 352,354 barrels. Results for the first three months of 2024 exceed these production figures by more than 100,000 barrels. Compared with year-ago numbers, oil production during the first quarter of 2024 increased by 95%, ODNR records show. According to quarter-over-quarter data, oil production increased by nearly 89% in the county.To place this in perspective, Columbiana wells in 2022 produced just 20,350 barrels of oil throughout the entire year. Northern Utica regions such as Mahoning and Trumbull counties produced little oil during the quarter, ODNR data show. Mahoning wells, for example, yielded 1,094 barrels over a 90-day period, while wells in Trumbull County pumped out just 675 barrels.Three other energy companies with assets in Columbiana County – Hilcorp Energy Co., Geopetro LLC and Pin Oak Energy Partners LLC – reported their wells produced no oil, just natural gas, according to ODNR.The latest report shows that four companies operate 172 wells in Columbiana County. EAP owns 81 wells; Hilcorp operates 73; Pin Oak owns 10; and Geopetro lists eight wells, according to records. Collectively, these wells produced 24.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas during the quarter, according to records. The single largest Columbiana County gas well reported was Hilcorp’s Elk Run Scheel 8H well, which produced 676.5 million cubic feet of gas during the quarter. Ascent Resources boasted the biggest single gas well in the state during the period, according to ODNR. Its Ruth 5H well in Jefferson County piped out 3.7 billion cubic feet of gas during a 91-day period, records show. Ohio’s gas wells produced a total of 534.028 billion cubic feet of gas during the first quarter of 2024, down 3% from the same period in 2023.
Mystery Driller Asks Ohio to Lease More of Salt Fork State Park -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In February, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met to award contracts to drill under (not on) several Ohio state parks, including 5,700 acres of the 20,000-acre Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County (see Ohio Awards Drilling Contracts for State Parks – Salt Fork Surprise). The big news for us was that Encino Energy, which has long coveted the Salt Fork State Park property, did NOT win the contract for it. At some point, Encino pulled its proposal for Salt Fork and instead concentrated on several other parcels. The contract for Salt Fork was awarded to Infinity Natural Resources. This just in…The OGLMC has received a new nomination to drill under another 2,300 acres of Salt Fork State Park.Martins Ferry Council Pressures ODNR to Clean Up AMS Facility…NOW -- Marcellus Drilling News - We have been tracking and reporting on the drama surrounding Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, located close to the Ohio River (see our AMS stories here). Two weeks ago, a Belmont County Common Pleas Court judge ordered AMS to be fined $200 per day for failing to meet its permitted requirements for the amount of frack drill cuttings and other frack waste products housed at the Martins Ferry site. However, paperwork filed with the court by AMS claims the company is out of money, deep in debt, and is “effectively a dead company” that will not be able to meet the court’s order … unless it gets sold (quickly) to someone else who can do the cleanup work (see Austin Master Services Claims It is “Effectively a Dead Company”). The problem is that nothing is getting done to clean up the mess left by AMS, and the city of Martins Ferry is not happy with the stalemate.
AEP Announces Finding a Buyer for Austin Master Services - We have been tracking and reporting on the drama surrounding Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio, located close to the Ohio River, since the Ohio Attorney General lodged charges against the company back in March (see our AMS stories here). AMS has stored at least 10,000 tons of fracking waste (drill cuttings with low radioactivity) at the facility. The facility is rated and permitted to hold 600 tons. In March, Ohio AG Dave Yost asked the Belmont County Common Pleas Court to block AMS from receiving more waste and order it to clean up and comply with its rating. That process has been playing out. Meanwhile, the company that owns AMS, American Environmental Partners (AEP), announced yesterday it has found a buyer for AMS.
Radium Found in Mussels Downstream from PA Frack Wastewater Plant - Marcellus Drilling News - Researchers from Penn State analyzed the composition of mussels downstream of a wastewater treatment facility in Western Pennsylvania that had accepted and treated fracking wastewater. A new scientific study published in the June issue of Science of the Total Environment by two Penn State researchers confirms what everyone has known for the last 13 years: Recycling brine (frack wastewater) and releasing that recycled brine into groundwater supplies is not a good idea. The researchers sampled freshwater mussels downstream from a centralized wastewater treatment facility in western Pennsylvania that had accepted and treated fracking wastewater from the oil and gas industry for “two decades.” They found low levels of radium in the mussels, radium that can be attributed to fracking wastewater.
Signs that EQT has Restored Production Previously Cut in February - Marcellus Drilling News - The country’s largest natural gas producer, EQT Corporation, headquartered in Pittsburgh and solely focused on drilling in the Marcellus/Utica, previously announced it had sliced 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of its production as of late February because of the ongoing low price of natgas (see Boom! EQT is Curtailing 1 Bcf/d of Gas Production Effective Now). In late April, as part of its first quarter update for investors, EQT’s top brass said the 1 Bcf/d curtailment would continue until “at least the end of May” (see EQT Disses Haynesville in Jab at Chesapeake/Southwestern Merger). It looks like the curtailment is over, although EQT is not publicly saying so…yet.
IFO 1Q24 Report – PA NatGas Production Increases Slightly YOY - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for January through March 2024 (full copy below). There were 100 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 1Q24, a decrease of 20 wells (-16.7%) compared to 1Q23. That number was also down from the 110 wells spud in 4Q23. This was the sixth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year (YOY) decline in new wells spud. Natural gas production volume was 1,881 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 1Q24, up 36 Bcf (1.9%) from the 1,845 Bcf produced in 1Q23. However, 1Q24’s 1,881 Bcf was down 3.0% from 4Q23’s 1,939 Bcf.
Test Records from March Show 130 Potential Problem Areas Along MVP --Marcellus Drilling News - Newly released information gathered from a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request shows that as Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) tested its 303-mile pipeline from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, some 130 potential problem areas were located. Running a PIG (pipeline inspection gauge) device through the pipeline to check for dents and other weaknesses found 50 “anomalies” that required further excavation work to check. Another 80 excavations were needed after tests using an electric current to probe for weaknesses in the pipeline’s special anti-corrosion coating.
As MVP nears finish line, some residents call for more scrutiny of pipeline's safety - Last month, builders of the Mountain Valley Pipeline reported they hope to complete construction and go in service in early June. But new records from a federal agency reveal there have been over a hundred instances of potential safety risks along the MVP in recent months, according to records released to the Roanoke Times through a Freedom of Information Act request.Some residents are pushing for more scrutiny over MVP’s safety risks.Last week, activists gathered to protest the pipeline outside the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality office in Salem, chanting "DEQ do you job!" and "When our land is under attack, what do we do? Stand up, fight back."Over 100 people have submitted comments to federal regulators, with concerns about MVP’s plans to go in service soon. 23 Virginia lawmakers and three county governments also submitted letters, asking not to grant authorization until safety can be ensured.Many point to a 2023 consent order with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, which requires MVP to do extra testing."There is some comfort in the tests that PHMSA has required them to do on each section of pipe, but we are in a bit of unchartered territory," said Bill Caram, executive director for Pipeline Safety Trust, a nonprofit pipeline watchdog organization that’s raised concerns about MVP for years. PHMSA provided information to The Roanoke Times through a FOIA request last week. The agency reported there have been 130 instances when pipes along MVP needed to be excavated to do more testing or make repairs.MVP said in a letterto the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in May it will complete all testing to ensure safety before it requests permission from FERC to go in service.
MVP Sues 4 Out-of-State Protesters Who Blocked Access to Work Sites -Marcellus Drilling News - Marcellus Drilling News - Four out-of-state pipeline protesters (two from New Jersey, one each from Vermont and Maryland), all senior citizens who thought it was cutesy to block access to work sites for the almost-done Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), are about to learn a hard lesson. They have been sued by MVP for BIG BUCKS — for the costs to compensate for lost time AND for punitive damages. We’ll see if the protesters’ Big Green benefactors will pony up the lawyers and money they need to fight the lawsuits. It’s about time our side begins to play hardball. You play hardball by suing these crazies and making them pay. Kudos to MVP.
FERC Notes ‘Limited’ Environmental Impacts From Ridgeline Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion - East Tennessee Natural Gas LLC’s (ETNG) Ridgeline natural gas pipeline system expansion received a positive draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) that cited the benefits of reducing coal-fired generation. The Enbridge Inc. subsidiary would add a 122-mile pipeline for 300,000 Dth/d of firm transportation capacity along the Ridgeline system through eight Tennessee counties. The additional natural gas supply would flow to Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA) Kingston Fossil Plant where the federal public power company plans to retire coal-fired units by 2027. In a DEIS, FERC staff did not characterize the project’s greenhouse gas emissions “as significant or insignificant.” However, staff noted that the net reduction in emissions from TVA’s proposed gas plant...
CorEnergy Infrastructure Aims for June Emergence from Bankruptcy - Pipeline operator CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February, is on the path to emerging from the process after a court has confirmed the company’s reorganization plan.Chairman and CEO Dave Schulte said the company’s sale of its MoGas and Omega pipelines and full repayment of its secured debt had encouraged stakeholders to vote for recapitalizing the company’s balance sheet.“These transactions were the result of a comprehensive strategic review process in which our board and advisors analyzed all reasonably available alternatives given the challenging market conditions we have faced since 2020,” Schulte said in a press release.In May 2023, the company said it would sell MoGas and Omega for approximately $175 million.Throughout the bankruptcy, CorEnergy’s Crimson midstream assets, which span northern, central and southern California, have continued to operation without interruption.“Crimson Pipeline has operated as usual throughout the company’s restructuring process and is expected to continue doing so,” said Robert Waldron, president of CorEnergy. “We await a decision on our requested San Pablo Bay rate relief before the California Public Utilities Commission to ensure the viability of the Crimson Pipeline assets, which we anticipate in late 2024. We also continue to evaluate potential opportunities to redeploy our assets into energy transition.”Under the reorganization plan, confirmed on May 24, holders of CorEnergy’s 5.875% Unsecured Convertible Senior Notes and existing preferred equity would own the company’s common stock.CorEnergy plans to pursue an over-the-counter listing for the shares of common stock, which will provide “liquidity for its equity owners while reducing overhead expenses to a level commensurate with its smaller size.”The company expects to post an investor presentation about the plan before emergence, which the company expects on June 12.Husch Blackwell LLP served as legal counsel to the company, Teneo Capital LLC as its financial adviser and Miller Buckfire as its investment banker. Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP served as legal counsel to an ad hoc group of noteholders and Perella Weinberg Partners and TPH&Co., the energy business of Perella Weinberg Partners, as its investment bankers.
Williams seeks to put more of US natural gas project into service - U.S. energy company Williams WMB.N sought permission from a federal energy regulator on Friday to put more of the Regional Energy Access natural gas project already under construction into service by July 1. Williams designed Regional Energy Access to help meet rising gas demand and ease supply constraints affecting customers in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The company said the project, one of the biggest under construction in the U.S. Northeast, will provide enough gas to serve 4.4 million homes annually. Natural gas is used to heat homes and businesses, for cooking and in industrial plants. The company has estimated the project's total cost at around $1 billion. Williams' Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co (Transco) unit filed the request with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) seeking to provide about 0.16 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of the roughly 0.83-bcfd project's gas capacity available to customers on an interim basis. The project is already partially in service. FERC said it approved Transco's request to make the first roughly 0.45-bcfd phase of the project available on an interim basis in October 2023. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply 5 million U.S. homes for a day. Williams said on its website that it started construction in the second quarter of 2023 and expects to put the project fully into service in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Renewable Additions Seen Potentially ‘Eating Away’ at Natural Gas-Fired Generation Gains - U.S. natural gas-fired power generation has gotten a demand boost from coal retirements over the past year, but those tailwinds are set to fade in the coming months as a wave of new renewables competes for share of the power stack. Natural gas has gained about 1.7 Bcf/d of power generation demand since mid-2023 as retirements and competitive gas prices have made coal less competitive, according to Enverus senior energy transition analyst Carson Kearl. Those gains have been shown to be “relatively sticky” thus far in 2024, Kearl told NGI. However, additional increases aren’t likely after favorable year/year comparisons run out in June and July and “additional renewable capacity starts to eat away at that bump in gas demand we saw last year,” he said.
Dominion divests Questar Gas and Wexpro for $4.3bn - Dominion Energy has completed the sale of its US natural gas utility Questar Gas and its associated company Wexpro to Enbridge for approximately $4.3bn.The deal consideration includes the assumption of debt and customary closing adjustments.The transaction was signed in September 2023. It forms part of a $14bn agreement signed between Enbridge and Dominion involving two other natural gas distribution companies.Questar Gas’ infrastructure includes more than 33,500km of natural gas distribution and transmission pipelines, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage facility to enhance system reliability. Wexpro supplies natural gas to Questar Gas under a cost-of-service agreement. Questar Gas will operate in Utah under the name Enbridge Gas Utah, in Idaho as Enbridge Gas Idaho and in Wyoming as Enbridge Gas Wyoming.
Enbridge Closes Acquisition of Questar Gas – Rigzone -Enbridge Inc. has completed the acquisition of Questar Gas Company and its related Wexpro companies from Dominion Energy, Inc. Questar will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. The Questar Gas utility will be doing business in Utah as Enbridge Gas Utah, in Wyoming as Enbridge Gas Wyoming, and in Idaho as Enbridge Gas Idaho, Enbridge said in a news release.Serving 1.2 million customers in service territories with fast growing economies and populations, Questar Gas is a multi-state utility that distributes natural gas in Utah, southwestern Wyoming, and southeastern Idaho. Questar Gas Company has a cost-of-service supply agreement with Wexpro. Questar Gas's asset portfolio includes over 21,000 miles (over 33,500 kilometers) of natural gas distribution and transmission pipelines, a liquefied natural gas storage facility that enhances system reliability, and interconnections to multiple interstate natural gas pipelines, according to the release."Questar Gas and Wexpro enhance the scale and breadth of our existing low risk utility business model and support our long-term dividend growth profile by providing stable, predictable cash flows," Enbridge Executive Vice President and President for Gas Distribution and Storage Michele Harradence said."We welcome Questar Gas and Wexpro employees into the Enbridge family of companies and look forward to building long-term productive relationships with all of their stakeholders in Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho," Harradence remarked.The combined contributions from Questar and the previously closed acquisition of The East Ohio Gas Company, now doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio, are expected to contribute approximately 80 percent of the total annualized EBITDA from the three gas utilities Enbridge has agreed to acquire from Dominion, Enbridge stated.The closing of the purchase of the Public Service Co. of North Carolina Inc (PSNC) is expected to occur following the receipt of required regulatory approvals for that purchase. The acquisition of PSNC is on track to close within the year, Enbridge added.In September 2023, Enbridge entered into three separate definitive agreements with Dominion Energy Inc. to acquire natural gas distribution companies The East Ohio Gas Company, PSNC, and Questar Gas for an aggregate purchase price of $14 billion (CAD 19 billion), composed of $9.4 billion of cash consideration and $4.6 billion of assumed debt.Enbridge closed the acquisition of (EOG) from Dominion Energy, Inc. in March. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit, Enbridge said in a news release Thursday.Upon completion of the Dominion transactions, Enbridge will add gas utility operations in Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, representing a significant presence in the U.S. utility sector, Enbridge said in an earlier statement. According to Dominion, the three utilities serve about three million homes and businesses and collectively comprise approximately 78,000 miles of natural gas distribution, transmission, gathering, and storage pipelines, as well as more than 62 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of working underground and liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage capacity; and approximately 400 billion cubic feet equivalent of cost-of-service regulated gas reserves as of year-end 2022.
Delfin LNG Permit Expiration Paused as Federal Agencies Review Project - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has agreed to temporarily maintain Delfin LNG’s authorization for worldwide natural gas exports that was set to expire at the beginning of this month while it reviews an extension request. DOE staff told the Houston-based developer it would “toll” its permit to export liquefied natural gas to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries until it “issues an order on the pending request.” Delfin asked the agency in March to extend its deadline for placing the first phase of the project in service to June 1, 2029. “We emphasize that, during this period, Delfin has no reliance interest on this non-FTA authorization,” DOE staff wrote in a recently published response. “Any actions taken by Delfin prior to the issuance of DOE’s order on...
EPC Issues May Impact Golden Pass Pipeline Progress – - Golden Pass LNG’s feed gas pipeline is expected to be in service during the first half of 2025, but the timeline could be impacted by the Zachry Group’s bankruptcy filing last month, according to a field inspection report by FERC. Zachry was one of three engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors working on the project, but it cited cost overruns and an aggressive timeline as reasons for its bankruptcy. It has exited the project and laid off more than 4,500 people working on it, according to a letter sent to the Texas Workforce Commission. Earlier this year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized partial service to start on a small stretch of the 2.5 Bcf/d Golden Pass pipeline. The Commission approved about 600 MMcf/d to move as far
Golden Pass LNG construction turmoil to delay Texas plant's startup – Golden Pass LNG construction turmoil to delay Texas plant's startup Golden Pass LNG construction turmoil to delay Texas plant's startup 6/7/2024 The startup of Golden Pass LNG, the QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil $11-B JV LNG project in Texas, has been delayed by at least six months due to construction turmoil, according to analysts. The project at the Sabine Pass site of a former gas-import terminal that was converted to process natural gas for LNG exports, is one of two large U.S. terminals whose startup had been expected to significantly expand supplies from the world's top exporter of the fuel in the next 12 months. Golden Pass LNG's startup, however, was thrown into doubt last month when lead contractor Zachry Holdings filed for bankruptcy and quit the project. The plant was 75% complete and an updated completion schedule would be disclosed, Exxon then said. On Wednesday, a regulatory filing on a pipeline that will deliver natural gas to the plant said the latest forecast for startup may be revised due to Zachry's bankruptcy, without providing a new date. The filing indicates "train one will be online by the end of June 2025, with trains two and three following in December 2025 and March 2026," analyst Zach Van Everen at energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co wrote in a note published on Thursday. The first of three processing units was originally expected to begin processing this year, but was pushed back earlier this year into the first half of 2025. The full over 15 MMtpy production was also initially set for 2025, Golden Pass LNG previously said. Golden Pass LNG had warned earlier in May of possible impacts on construction of the first three trains of the project. A company spokesman on Wednesday said he had no update on a revised completion schedule or whether the joint venture owners have identified a new engineering, procurement, and construction contractor.
Freeport LNG Natural Gas Nominations Stabilize After Brief Train 2 Outage - Feed gas flows to Freeport LNG early Monday had returned to nearly 80% of pipeline capacity following a brief slip from another operational issue late last week. Freeport LNG Development LP reported a trip of Train 2 Thursday that temporarily halted liquefied natural gas production for about 16 hours. Freeport staff told the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality the issue was related to a surge valve on a propane compressor. The company reported flaring ended by mid-Friday morning and the train was restarted. Nominations to the LNG facility returned to 78% of capacity by the Friday evening cycle, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Nominations held near that level through the weekend as ships arrived and departed from the facility carrying shipments to Asia and...
Saudi Aramco holding LNG talks with Tellurian, NextDecade --Oil giant Aramco is in talks with US firms Tellurian and NextDecade on two separate liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects as the Saudi firm seeks to boost its gas trading and production, three sources close to the talks told Reuters. US gas production has boomed over the past decade with oil majors and Aramco’s rivals such as Qatar Energy competing to build several projects to export gas to Europe and Asia. The state energy firm is in talks with Tellurian to buy a stake in its 27.6 million metric ton per annum (mtpa) Driftwood LNG plant near Lake Charles, Louisiana. Aramco officials visited the site three times this year – including together with executives from Australia’s Woodside on one of those occasions, said the sources who declined to be identified as talks are not public. The state-owned firm is also in talks with US LNG firm NextDecade for a long-term gas purchase agreement from a proposed fifth processing unit at its $18bn Rio Grande facility. Aramco declined to comment. Tellurian said it does not comment on market speculation. Woodside said it continuously assesses organic and inorganic growth opportunities but declined further comment. NextDecade did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment. Aramco is seeking to strengthen its position in the LNG market, which is set to grow globally by 50 per cent by 2030, especially in the US, where LNG capacity is set to almost double over the next four years. Tellurian has spent years and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to finance and build the Driftwood plant. Last fall, Tellurian warned investors that within a year the company might not be able to cover operating and debt costs due to continued losses and dwindling cash reserves. An Aramco investment could provide the turnaround that Driftwood LNG needs, said Kaushal Ramesh, Rystad Energy’s vice president for LNG research. Driftwood is not affected by President Biden’s pause on LNG export projects as it already has a Department of Energy permit to export the proposed plant’s super-chilled gas to countries that do not have free-trade agreements with the US. In February, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave Tellurian a three-year permit extension to complete the construction of Driftwood. Aramco is one of the world’s largest oil producers and the top exporter, pumping nearly 10 per cent of the world’s crude supply. However, its presence in the LNG market is dwarfed by neighbouring Qatar. UAE’s ADNOC Group also has a bigger presence. Aramco made its first LNG investment abroad when it bought a stake in US-based MidOcean Energy for $500m last year. In March, Reuters reported that Aramco was in talks to invest in Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur project in Texas. It is also competing with Shell to buy the assets of Temasek-owned LNG trading firm Pavilion Energy.
A Research Duel Heats up Amid High-Stakes Decision on LNG Exports – DeSmog - Industry and academic groups have launched a research arms race to influence the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision about whether more liquified natural gas exports are in the public interest.In late January, President Joe Biden announced that the agency would temporarily stop processing pending applications to export LNG to countries that don’t have a trade agreement with the U.S., which includes the majority of countries importing U.S. LNG. That pause will lift when the Energy Department updates the climate and economic analysis underpinning its export authorizations. This has not interrupted the seven LNG export terminals currently operating in the U.S. or the eight under construction. But the move could result in a decision limiting more LNG exports in a country that’s already the world’s top LNG exporter — and groups see an opening to sway minds. “There is always a concern that DOE would be influenced by an industry-funded report. That is the very nature of the government’s relationship with the fossil fuel industry, which has a long history of producing misleading and inaccurate information,” said Robin Saha, director of the environmental studies program at the University of Montana and a co-author of a May impact assessment of the LNG buildout in Louisiana and Texas. “It is vital that the DOE also engage and include the data provided by communities living closest to the LNG facilities in operation to provide a comprehensive analysis.” Local fishers and environmental advocacy groups have warned that the LNG export pause didn’t go far enough in addressing concerns raised by Gulf Coast residents. They’re calling for the Biden administration to ban further expansion of the industry. “We’ve seen the destruction just one of these plants has. So for it to be in the public interest to build the other ones is just a ridiculous notion,” said Cameron Parish fisherman Travis Dardar, who wasn’t involved in the research. “We’re fighting this because we have nothing left to lose. They’ve taken everything from us. They’ve taken basically all the docks.”The impact assessment Saha co-authored with academics at the Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at Texas Southern University found that the LNG buildout disproportionately harms low-income neighborhoods and communities of color. The industry contributes to climate change and has the potential to inflate U.S. electricity prices; people living near these facilities face air pollution on top of that, the study concluded. The Center is submitting the report to the Energy Department, said co-author Liza T. Powers, a postdoctoral fellow at the Bullard Center. “To date, the licensing and application process for LNG facilities have failed to acknowledge or address environmental and climate justice issues,” she said. “We argue that taking into account the cumulative impacts, including climate impact of LNG, leads to the conclusion that LNG does not serve the public interest.”The Biden administration’s pause on LNG export project approvals was initiated after a study by Cornell University professor Robert Warren Howarth found LNG exports could be worse for the planet than coal. Arevised version of that study is undergoing peer review.LNG export companies are pushing back on Howarth’s findings. A study funded by exporter lobbying group LNG Allies and published in April by the consulting firm Berkeley Research Group concluded that U.S. LNG produces less than half the emissions from coal when used for electricity in Europe and Asia, and about 20% less emissions than gas coming from Russia.“I think industry got the result they paid for,” Howarth told DeSmog after reviewing that report. The industry-funded study does not provide the specific data sources used to calculate methane emissions from drilling, fracking, flaring, processing, and transporting natural gas, Howarth pointed out. “The upstream emissions are a big part of the total in my analysis. If we correct their analysis for having low-balled these emissions, then we are not that far off,” he said.
US natgas prices jump 7% to one-week high on rising power, LNG demand (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures soared about 7%to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for demand to rise as hot weather promptspower generators to burn more fuel to run air conditioners and as flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increase. Traders saidU.S. prices were also supportedby a 5% jumpin gas prices in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 due to an unplanned shutdown of an offshore production hub in Norway. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.9 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $2.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 22. In the spot market, powerprices in California and Arizona turned negative again, while next-day gas prices in northern California fell to their lowest since 2001 amid little demand and ample cheap hydropower and other renewable supplies. Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 98.1 bcfd in May, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through June 18 except for some near-normaldays from June 8-12. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 94.9 bcfd this week to 95.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.1 bcfd so far in June, up from a record 7.0 bcfd in May, as Mexican generators burn more gas to meet growing power demand and New Fortress Energy NFE.O pulls in more U.S. gas for its LNG export plant in Altamira, Mexico. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.3 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May. That, however, remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing maintenance at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana. In other LNG news, liquefaction Train 2 at Freeport LNG's export plant tripped on May 30, according to a company filing with state environmental regulators. Data from LSEG showed that feedgas to the three-train 2.1-bcfd Freeport slid from 2.0 bcfd on May 29 to 1.6 bcfd on May 30 before returning to an expected 2.0 bcfd on Monday. Gas was trading at a five-month high of $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near a five-month high of $12 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU But no matter how high gas prices rise overseas, U.S. LNG sales will remain limited until all of the export plants complete their maintenance work. The U.S. can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG when all plants are operating at full power. The plants, however, can pull in a little more gas since they consume some of the fuel to power operations.
US natgas prices drop 6% on forecasts for less demand over next two weeks — U.S. natural gas futures dropped by about 6% on Tuesday, pressured by lowered demand forecasts for the next two weeks and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in U.S. storage. Trade was volatile after prices soared by about 7% on Monday to its highest close since May 22. Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 25% above normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures NG1! for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.0 cents, or 6.2%, to settle at $2.586 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Energy traders noted prices fell despite a preliminary drop in output to a 19-week low over the past few days. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary production data is often revised later in the day. Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, the same as in May, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.6 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 19-week low of 96.4 bcfd. Before this week, energy traders said there were signs output was rising due to a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24. Overall, U.S. gas production was down around 9% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT EQT and Chesapeake Energy CHK , delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through June 19 except for some near-normal days from June 9-11.
US natural gas prices jump 7% on hot forecasts, drop in daily output - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 7% to a two-week high in volatile trade on Wednesday on forecasts for mostly hotter than normal weather over the next two weeks and a decline in daily gas output. So far this week, prices have jumped 7% on Monday, fell 6% on Tuesday and jumped 7% again on Wednesday. Analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics blamed part of that price volatility on forecasts calling for the weather to go from hotter than normal this week to hot in the West and cool in the East next week, before switching to hotter than normal across the entire country in two weeks. "Near-term gas prices are navigating this outlook with volatility likely to extend, as the July contract seeks a new trading range after the May short squeeze," analysts at EBW Analytics said in a note. "The outlook for the back half of June is bullish." Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.1 cents, or 6.6%, to settle at $2.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 22. The prices increases seen so far this week occurred despite the tremendous oversupply of gas still in U.S. storage. Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 25% above normal for this time of year. Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, the same as in May, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.1 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary five-week low of 96.7 bcfd on Wednesday. That output, however, was up about 0.2 bcfd from a 15-week low of 96.5 bcfd on May 1. Analysts said the increase since May 1 was a sign output was rising due to a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24. Overall, U.S. gas production is still down around 9% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through June 20 except for some near-normal days in the June 9-11 period.
US natgas prices climbed about 3% to a 21-week high on lower output, higher demand — U.S. natural gas futures climbed by about 3% to a 21-week high on Friday on recent declines in daily output and forecasts that power generators will burn a lot more gas in late June to meet rising electric use as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape an expected heat wave. Traders said that price increases would likely have been much higher but for lower spot prices and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage. Analysts said current gas stockpiles were around 24% above normal levels for this time of year. "Spotty production during the first week of June helped natural gas power through weak spot pricing," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW said in a note. Front-month gas futures NG1! for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.7 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $2.918 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 12. For the week, the front-month was up about 13% after gaining about 3% last week. One factor that has helped to keep a lid on futures prices so far this year has been lower spot or next-day prices at the Henry Hub benchmark (NG-W-HH-SNL) in Louisiana. The spot market has traded below front-month futures for 93 out of 109 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were up about 1% to $2.30 per mmBtu for Friday. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to an average of 98.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.1 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary four-week low of 96.9 bcfd on Friday. That output, however, was up about 0.3 bcfd from a 15-week low of 96.5 bcfd on May 1. Analysts said the increase since May 1 was a sign output was rising due to a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24. Overall, U.S. gas production is still down around 9% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT EQT and Chesapeake Energy CHK , delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell in February and March. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 22 except for some near- to below-normal days from June 9-12. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would ease from 94.0 bcfd this week to 93.3 bcfd with cooler weather next week before rising to 99.2 bcfd in two weeks when the weather turns hot. The forecast for this week were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 13.3 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May. That, however, remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing maintenance at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana.
U.S. Oil, Gas Activity Declines - The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday.The total rig count fell by 6 to 594 this week, compared to 695 rigs this same time last year.The number of oil rigs fell by 4 this week, after staying the same in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 492--down by 64 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 this week to 98, a loss of 37 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production stayed the same for the twelfth week in a row at an average of 13.1 million bpd for the week ending May 31—down 200,000 bpd from the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd.Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing wells that are unfinished, fell for the second week in a row—by 4—in the week ending May 31. The frac spread count now stands at 253.Drilling activity in the Permian stayed the same at 310 this week, after falling by 2 in the week prior. The count in the Eagle Ford also stayed the same this week, holding at 51 after increasing by 1 in the week prior.Oil prices began to inch up on Friday after a rough week for prices after OPEC+ laid out its plan for rolling back its production cuts later this year—subject to market conditions. At 9:12 a.m. ET, the WTI benchmark was trading up $0.13 (+0.17%) on the day at $75.68—about $1.40 below last Friday’s price.
House Democrats Accuse Big Oil Of Price Gouging - A group of House Democrats have called on the Department of Justice to launch a probe into the oil industry, accusing the two largest U.S. energy companies of a conspiracy to keep fuel prices high.In a letter sent to the Department of Justice by Rep. Jerrold Nadler and signed by nine more House members, the group claimed that the record profits that Exxon and Chevron reported last year were proof they were conspiring against Americans by keeping fuel prices high.“By any measure, these are good times for oil companies in the United States. Last year, the two largest U.S. oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. (“Exxon”) and Chevron Corp. (“Chevron”), both earned their biggest annual profits in a decade,” the House Democrats wrote.“But apparently, instead of passing those profits through to consumers in the form of cheaper products, the oil giants have been lining their own pockets while conspiring to keep prices high.”The letter also accused the U.S. oil industry of colluding with OPEC and OPEC+, with its authors writing that “If U.S. oil companies are colluding with each other and foreign cartels to manipulate global oil markets and harm American consumers who then pay more at the pump, Congress and the American people deserve to know.” The OPEC collusion accusation follows charges leveled at the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources by the Federal Trade Commission during Exxon’s takeover of the company.The FTC alleged that Scott Sheffield had colluded with OPEC and OPEC+ members to limit production and increase oil prices in comments on its approval of Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer. The allegations shook the shale oil world, where several large consolidation deals are awaiting the trade watchdog’s approval.Sheffield hit back by saying there was no merit to the charges and that “Publicly and unjustifiably vilifying me will have a chilling effect on the ability of business leaders in any sector of our economy to address shareholder demands and to exercise their constitutionally protected right to advocate for their industries,”
U.S. Could Accelerate Refill Rate Of Strategic Petroleum Reserve -The United States could accelerate the pace of buying crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), as all four sites would be available by the end of the year after a maintenance period, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm told Reuters in an interview.“All four sites will be back up by the end of the year, so one could imagine that pace would pick up, depending on the market,” Secretary Granholm said, commenting on the current pace of buying about 3 million barrels of crude for the reserve per month this year.The U.S. saw the stockpiles of crude oil in the SPR fall from 638 million barrels at President Joe Biden’s inauguration to just 347 million barrels by the summer of 2023 as the Administration tried to bring down gasoline prices for consumers. The large sell-off in the country’s safety supply of crude oil was met with criticism. Also met with criticism has been the Administration’s slow response to falling oil prices—a perfect opportunity for any Administration earnestly looking to replenish SPR oil inventories.In March, the U.S. Department of Energy expected only 40 million barrels to be refilled by the end of this year, but another 140 million barrels of crude will stay in the SPR after the cancellation of congressionally mandated sales from 2022, according to Reuters.The Biden Administration could now accelerate the rate of repurchases of crude for the SPR as it views the global oil markets well-supplied and does not expect wild swings in prices or spikes in the “next short while,” Secretary Granholm told Reuters.Earlier this year, the energy secretary said that the Biden Administration aims to have crude in the SPR by the end of the year back up to the levels before the massive sales of 180 million barrels in the past two years. The Administration continues to target purchases of crude for the strategic reserve at a price of $79 per barrel or below. Early on Wednesday, the WTI Crude price was at around $73 a barrel.
1,300 barrels of produced water spilled in NW Mountrail County, contained on-site– Roughly 1,300 barrels of produced water spilled at a well pad in northwest Mountrail County, but were contained on-site, state officials said. A spokesperson for the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division said Liberty Midstream Solutions, LLC, reported the spill Thursday at the Lynn SWD site, saying it was caused by power loss and tank overflow. A release from the agency indicated the spill was contained on-site and had been recovered at the time of the reporting. Produced water is a byproduct of the extraction of oil and gas. A state inspector has been to the site and is monitoring any additional cleanup.
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency cleaned up oil spill in Green Lake near Spicer - — An oil spill at Green Lake in Spicer was discovered and cleaned up by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency early this week, according to Spicer city administrator Jen Beckler. The oil spill was discovered at Pirrotta Park at around 9 a.m. Monday morning. Once discovered, an MPCA response team out of Morris went to work cleaning up the oil spill, which was cleaned up by Tuesday. "The amount of the spill is unknown, maybe five gallons," Beckler said. "Sorbents were used by the MPCA to clean up the spill." Once the oil is contained, sorbents are used to soak up moisture and thereby get oil out of lakes, according to the MPCA . That's exactly how the oil was cleaned out of Green Lake, according to Beckler. The origin of the spill is unknown and is currently under investigation.
Alaska LNG Developer Shifts Focus to Pipeline After Tentative Feed Gas Supply Agreement - Alaska Gasline Development Corp. (AGDC) aims to build an 800-mile natural gas pipeline for the Alaska LNG project before progressing the terminal as it balances its dual goals of increasing in-state gas supply and completing the export project. The state-backed nonprofit firm disclosed the new phased approach and the decision to undertake a front-end engineering and design process for the 42-inch diameter pipeline after inking a tentative supply agreement. AGDC signed a gas sales precedent agreement with a unit of Pantheon Resources plc to supply up to 500 MMcf/d at $1/MMBtu or lower for the Alaska liquefied natural gas export facility for up to 20 years, with options to extend. Initial volumes could come as early as 2029 and ramp up to full capacity by 2032.
Expansion of Trans Mountain Pipeline will increase oil tanker traffic by three-fold --San Juan Island residents can expect a large increase in oil tanker traffic in the coming months with the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion in British Columbia. The project was approved by the Canadian government back in June 2019, despite the reluctance of Washington state leaders, who were largely left out of the conversation. The project will triple the amount of Alberta crude oil that is carried from Burnaby near Vancouver, B.C., aiming to increase the number of tankers sent out, from an average of five per month to one per day. The Journal spoke with leaders in emergency response and environmental advocacy on San Juan Island to learn more about what this increase might mean for the islands.The expansion project is a twinning of the existing 1,150 kilometer pipeline which passes by the west side of San Juan Island and the Olympic Peninsula. According to their website, the pipeline has operated without a single spill since it began loading marine vessels with oil at its Westridge Terminal in 1956. As part of its approval of expansion in 2019, the pipeline is subject to 156 enforced by the Canada Energy Regulator. Additionally, according to an article from the Seattle Times, Trans Mountain has also invested in additional oil spill prevention and response measures at multiple new bases on Vancouver Island near the international shipping lanes, as well has agreed to employ tug escorts all the way to the western entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.Lovel Pratt, Marine Protection and Policy Director at Friends of the San Juans, is still greatly concerned about the increase of oil tanker traffic near the San Juan Islands.“This increase in tanker traffic increases the risk of accidents [and] also increases the risk of oil spills. A major oil spill would be environmentally, culturally and economically devastating,” said Pratt. Pratt cited an estimate based on 2006 numbers given by the Washington Department of Ecology (DOE) that a large oil spill could cost the state $10.8 billion and 165,000 jobs.As for environmental impacts, one species that is particularly vulnerable to potential negative impacts of the pipeline are Southern Resident killer whales. Pratt mentioned that increased traffic could potentially lead to accidents such as ship strikes that kill whales, and that a major oil spill could even cause the extinction of the already critically endangered Southern Residents. Even without a major oil spill, Pratt stated that the increase in noise and presence of tanker traffic still impacts the Southern Residents and other marine creatures.Pratt cited the application for the pipeline expansion project, saying it identified Turn Point, off Stuart Island, as having the “greatest level of navigation complexity” for the entire passage through the Salish Sea, and that Turn Point “also has high environmental values,” adding that a tar sands spill could also include severe air quality impacts.“I have not seen any assurances that Canada is prepared to contain and collect a tar sands oil spill that has submerged and/or sunk to the floor of the Salish Sea, and that will likely happen, especially if the spill occurs in Haro Strait and Boundary Pass,” said Pratt.
THA requests $153m for oil spill clean-up - THE Tobago House of Assembly requested $153 million for the clean-up exercise arising out of the oil spill in Tobago. So said Minister of Finance Colm Imbert as he explained the increase in the allocation to the THA by $50 million. Speaking during yesterday’s meeting of the Standing Finance Committee, Imbert said while the THA submitted a request for reimbursement and additional funding for the clean-up exercise, the technocrats in the Budget division of the Ministry of Finance, after “interrogating” the documents submitted by the THA, “found justification for $50 million”. As a result $50 million has been allocated to the Assembly. In response to questions, Imbert said this expenditure would be included in the Government’s claim with the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund. Imbert said the costs include clean-up and remediation, lease and rental infrastructure, marine support services and consultancy, security, materials and supplies, catering and refurbishment.
Peru LNG exports remain steady in May - Liquefied natural gas exports from Peru remained steady in May, with five cargoes leaving Peru LNG’s liquefaction plant at Pampa Melchorita. According to the shipment data by state-owned Perupetro, during May the 4.4 mtpa LNG plant sent two shipments each to South Korea and the Netherlands and one shipment to Taiwan. The shipments loaded onboard the LNG carriers Kool Baltic, Gaslog Houston, Gaslog Greece, Orion Bohemia, and LNG Ships Manhattan equal about 352,409 tonnes, the data shows. Kool Baltic’s AIS data provided by VesselsValue shows that the vessel has delivered its shipment to Taiwan, not South Korea. These five LNG cargoes loaded at the Peru LNG plant last month compare to four cargoes (273,339 tonnes) in May last year and five cargoes (373,035 tonnes) in April this year, while the plant shipped five LNG cargoes in March, four cargoes in February, and five cargoes in January.The facility increased its exports last year compared to the year before, and it also expects to boost the number of shipments in 2024.. US-based Hunt Oil holds a 50 percent operating stake in the Pampa Melchorita LNG plant, while MidOcean Energy and Marubeni have 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively. MidOcean Energy, the LNG unit of US-based energy investor EIG, completed in April its previously announced purchase of the 20 percent stake in Peru LNG from a unit of South Korean conglomerate SK.
European Natural Gas Prices Surge After Norwegian Production Outage – LNG Recap - European natural gas prices hit their highest level in six months on Monday after an unplanned outage in Norway significantly cut into supplies and jolted the market. European gas Norwegian grid operator Gassco AS said the Nyhamna natural gas processing plant and the Easington receiving terminal were offline because of issues at the Sleipner field offshore. It was unclear how long it would take to repair. An unplanned outage was also reported at the Troll field offshore Norway, where other assets are undergoing annual maintenance. Nominations to Europe were down by about 25% to 9 Bcf on Monday, according to Gassco. Benchmark Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices for July surged 13% to an intraday high of $12.34/MMBtu on Monday before falling to finish 5% higher...
Egyptian fertilizer plants shut down temporarily due to gas supply pressures -Gas supplies will gradually resume flowing as of Thursday to fertilizer factories in Egypt after several chemical and fertilizer companies shut down plants on a temporary basis. The companies said in bourse disclosures that increased consumption-driven pressures on the natural gas network led to fluctuations in supply. Some cited high temperatures as a reason for the disruption, as more gas was used for power generation. On Tuesday, a joint statement by the petroleum and electricity ministries announced an extension of rolling power cuts across the country for an extra hour to allow for preventative maintenance on its regional gas and power networks, and because of increased consumption caused by a heatwave. Temperatures rose to between 38-40 degrees Celsius (100.4°F) across Egypt on Tuesday and Wednesday and are expected to rise further on Thursday and Friday. Egypt Kuwait Holding, Misr Fertilizers Company MFPC.CA and Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries said they were shutting down plants for 24 hours until network pressure stabilized. Egyptian Chemical Industries Corp, Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals Co. also announced closures, but did not give a timeline. Supplies of the natural gas that helps Egypt generate electricity have been dwindling at a time when an expanding population and urban development have been pushing up electricity demand. When temperatures rise, air conditioning use drives up power consumption. Scheduled power outages began in Egypt last summer, coming as a shock to Egyptians accustomed to years of reliable power supplies under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The government said they would be temporary but the load shedding continued after temperatures dipped. After a pause earlier this year for the holy month of Ramadan, when many Muslims fast during daylight hours, two-hour daily cuts resumed. The government has heavily subsidized power prices for years and has deferred cuts to the subsidies amid economic pressures on citizens and businesses.
Natural gas consumption increases by 12.8pc - Natural gas consumption went up by 12.8 percent during the fourth quarter of last year ended in December, compared to similar quarter of 2022, fueled by expand of demands by power generation plants. Data by Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) show that power generating plans, which consume 85.6 percent of produced natural gas, consumed 18,524.8 million standard cubic feet (mscf) during the fourth quarter of last year, compared to 16,150.8 mscf consumed in Q4, 2022. During the reported period, gas production amounted to 21,935.6mscf, an increase of 4.7 percent, compared to 20,948.1 mscf produced in the fourth quarter of 2022. Production by Mnazi Bay fields, which accounts for 49.7 percent of total gas production in Tanzania, increased by 32 percent to 10,896.8 mscf from 8,257.7 mscf, while production at Songo Songo fields, which accounts for 50.3 percent of total production slowed by 13 percent to 11,038.8 mscf from 12,690.4 mscf respectively. The increase in gas production was on account of a rise in demand by Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (Tanesco) for the generation of electricity. Power generated by Tanesco increased to 2.2 million megawatt hour at the end of December last year, of which half is produced from natural gas, an increase from 1.9 million megawatts hour generated during the fourth quarter of 2022. Natural gas is the cleanest-burning hydrocarbon, producing around half the carbon dioxide (CO2) and just one tenth of the air pollutants of coal when burnt to generate electricity. The TPDC statistics shows consumption by industries, which account for 14.2 percent of total natural gas consumption slightly increased by 1.7 percent to 3,064.2 mscf at the end of the fourth quarter of last year from 3,011.9 mscf consumed in Q4, 2022. Vehicle consumption of natural gas, which account for 0.2 percent of total consumption, more than doubled to 41.9 mscf from 17.1 mscf respectively. However, households and others consumption declined by 11.6 percent and 1.5 percent to 1.1 mscf and 3 mscf respectively at the end of December 2023, compared to 1.2 mscf and 3 mscf recorded at the end of December 2022. Tanzania's natural gas reserves stood at 57.5 trillion cubic feet, of which over 47 trillion cubic feet were to be found in offshore fields. That same year, natural gas production in the country amounted to some 57 billion cubic feet. Despite of abundant gas reserves, the country accounts for 0.05 percent of global production, making it the world's 14th-largest producer. Plans are underway to construct the US$45 billion Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant.
Scorching heat drives India's gas-fired power use to multi-year highs in May -Sweltering heat and policy measures are fueling a surge in the use of gas-fired power in India, with imports of LNG forecast to rise sharply over the next two years. The country's gas-fired power generation doubled in April and May to 8.9 B kilowatt-hours (kWh) compared with the same period last year, data from Grid India showed, eating into the share of coal-fueled electricity for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 75% of India's power generation was from coal in 2023, while gas-fired plants have accounted for only about 2% in recent years, largely because of the high cost of gas relative to coal. In May, coal's share dipped to 74%, compared with 75.2% during the same month last year, while gas's share nearly doubled to 3.1% from 1.6%. An emergency clause invoked to force operation of idle gas-fired power plants to avoid power cuts during the 43-day federal elections that ended last week also drove gas usage, industry officials said, as power outages have historically been a key electoral issue. "The current growth of Indian power demand suggests the rising need for greater availability (of natural gas) and flexibility will remain a fixture in coming years," said Joachim Moxon, LNG analyst at ICIS. LNG imports to rise. India's gas-fired power output is expected to grow by 10.5% in the fiscal year ending in March 2025, following 35% growth the prior year. To meet that demand, LNG imports by the price-sensitive buyer swelled in May to the highest levels since October 2020, data from analytics firms LSEG and Kpler showed, despite global prices up five-fold from the pandemic-hit lows of 2020. Demand for LNG in India, the world's fourth-largest importer of the fuel, is set to increase by 19% in 2024, with imports forecast to reach more than 28 MMt in 2025, up from 22.1 MMt in 2023, according to ICIS. "India's LNG imports will continue to be driven higher by the power sector in at least the next two years," said Victor Vanya, director at Indian power analytics firm EMA Solutions. Industry officials and analysts have argued allocating more domestically produced gas could allow gas-fired generation to better compete with coal, but most local gas has gone to other sectors in recent years. "The insufficient local gas output is increasingly being used to supply the city gas network and fertilizer companies, and power generators will have to import," said a senior executive at a large Indian gas exchange who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to media. Despite being cheaper, solar and wind are harder to control and forecast than gas, while coal and nuclear power cannot be ramped up or down as quickly in response to sudden demand spurts or dips. Gas's flexibility and a 2022 federal regulation that provided a policy framework for operating more expensive gas-fired power plants have helped boost the fuel's use, industry officials and experts said. "Until we have optimal, large-scale battery storage solutions in India, peaking requirements such as ramping up and ramping down quickly will be met by thermal sources including natural gas,"
Russia suspends gas to Poland and Bulgaria -- "Gazprom has completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgargaz (Bulgaria) and PGNiG (Poland) due to non-payment in rubles," the Russian state-controlled company said in a statement posted on its Telegram account. Bulgaria and Poland announced on Tuesday that Gazprom would cut off gas to these two countries starting this Wednesday. "At the end of the business day on April 26, Gazprom Export did not receive payments for gas supplies in April from Bulgargaz and PGNiG in rubles as established by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31," the company noted. However, most European countries have refused to pay Russia in rubles. "Payments for gas supply from April 1 must be made in rubles using the new requirements, about which counterparties were informed in a timely manner," Gazprom stressed in this regard. "In this regard, Gazprom Export notified Bulgargaz and PGNiG of the suspension of gas supplies from April 27 until payment is made in accordance with the procedure established by the decree" of Putin, he added. The Russian gas company also warned Sofia and Warsaw that "Bulgaria and Poland are transit States and in the event of unauthorized withdrawal of Russian gas from the volumes in transit to third countries, supplies for transit will be reduced by this volume." Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered at the end of March that "unfriendly" countries, including the US, Canada, the United Kingdom and all member states of the European Union (EU) - in which Russian gas accounts for 40 % of consumption - pay for supplies in rubles due to Western sanctions on foreign currency transactions with Russia for its military campaign in Ukraine. The mechanism devised by Russia for this establishes that those countries considered hostile must open a special account in rubles and another in foreign currency at Gazprombank. Putin's idea was that the Russian bank would receive payment in the currency specified in the gas supply contract, the euro or the dollar, and then convert it into rubles on the Moscow foreign exchange market, the MICEX, and deposit it on the buyer's ruble account.
Taiwan Inks Deal for Stake in Qatar’s North Field LNG Expansion Project - Taiwan’s CPC Corp. said Wednesday it would purchase more natural gas from Qatar and take a share in the massive North Field LNG expansion project being developed there. The state-owned company signed a sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with QatarEnergy to buy 4 million metric tons/year (mmty) of liquefied natural gas over a period of 27 years. CPC also signed a share SPA for a 5% interest in the equivalent of one 8 mmty liquefaction train at the North Field East (NFE) project, which is currently under construction and expected to come online in 2026. .
Asian LNG Buyers Secure Medium-Term Contracts with TotalEnergies - More Asian buyers have turned to TotalEnergies SE and its massive LNG portfolio bolstered by flexible U.S. supply to meet medium- and long-term natural gas demand. TotalEnergies has signed a 10-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Indian Oil Corp. for 0.8 million metric ton/year (mmty) starting in 2026. The French supermajor also disclosed a tentative five-year deal with Korea South-East Power Co. Ltd. for 0.5 mmty starting in 2027. “These contracts enable us to contribute to the energy security and transition of these countries, to which we have an enduring commitment,” TotalEnergies’ Gregory Joffroy, senior vice president of liquefied natural gas, said.
Iran ramps up oil exports as Nigeria drags - -- While Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, continues to grapple with production and export challenges, Iran is experiencing a significant rebound in its oil exports. Oil production increased by only 18,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of the year to 3.188 million barrels per day (mbd), compared to the last quarter, indicating a mere 0.5percent growth in quarterly production, according to OPEC. The country’s oil production growth has slowed dramatically since last summer. Due to the sale of tens of millions of barrels from floating storage, Iran’s oil exports increased significantly in 1Q24 to 1.5 mbpd, according to estimates by Kpler which provides real-time data on global commodity movements. After the United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports in 2018, the country’s oil exports declined from 2.6 mbpd to 330,000 barrels by late 2019 – leading to the stockpiling of about 110 million barrels of unsold oil on both water and land. During President Joe Biden’s administration, however, the Islamic Republic was able to increase oil exports to its only customers: China and Syria. Last year for instance, Iran exported about 1.3 mbd of crude oil and gas condensate, 48 percent more than the previous year – of which 95 percent went to Chinese independent small refineries, called “teapots”. A senior expert at Kpler told Iran International that the volume reached 1.5 mb/d in January-March 2024. Kpler’s data indicates a significant increase in Iran’s oil exports during the first half of 2023, followed by a slight decline in the latter half of the year. Export growth then picked up again in the first quarter of 2024, although OPEC data suggested only a marginal increase in production levels. The significant quarterly increase in exports by 140,000 b/d, despite a production growth of only 18,000 barrels in 1Q24, can be attributed to Iran selling more than 16 million barrels from floating storage during January-March 2024.
Iraq's May exports fall as OPEC-plus extends cuts - Iraq Oil Report --Exports declined by about 60,000 bpd as Iraq continues to move toward compliance with recently extended OPEC-plus production caps. Iraq's oil exports averaged 3.350 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, down from 3.413 million bpd in April, according to a senior Iraqi oil official. The declining oil sales reflected the Oil Ministry's ongoing efforts to reduce output as part of its commitment to the OPEC-plus producers group, which decided on June 2 to extend supplemental cuts for another three months, through September.
Saudi Aramco's $12 Billion Share Sale Quickly Sells Out, But Who Is Buying? -Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy giant Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) confirmed in a filing with the Saudi Exchange plans to sell shares in the state-owned oil company to help the kingdom fund plans to diversify the economy. Well, the sale took place on Sunday and was a resounding success with US$12 billion share sale sold out shortly after the deal opened. The deal offered ~1.545B Aramco shares, or ~0.64% of the company, within the price range of 26.70 riyals to 29 riyals. Buyers of the shares will be looking to cash in on an upcoming ~$124 billion annual payout that Bloomberg Intelligence estimates will give the shares a juicy dividend yield of 6.6%.Although details of the split between local and foreign shareholders are yet to emerge, industry pundits will no doubt be eagerly waiting for the release in a bid to gauge foreign interest in Aramco’s assets. Foreign investors largely sat out the company’s 2019 initial public offering (IPO), with investors concerned about the steep valuation of the shares. ARMCO stock has plunged 14% in the year-to-date to give the company a valuation of $1.8 trillion with daily production estimated at 9.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). For some perspective, America’s largest energy company Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has a market cap just a quarter of Aramco’s ($451B) despite its daily production clocking in at more than 40% of Aramco’s (3.8M boe per day).Aramco’s share sale comes at a time when oil prices remain depressed mainly due to concerns about weak global demand. Brent crude for July delivery was quoted at $77.50 per barrel in Tuesday's intraday session, a level they last sunk to in early February. The oil price selloff is a serious blow to Saudi Arabia considering that the IMF estimates that Riyadh requires an average oil price of $96.20 a barrel to balance its budget, assuming it holds crude output steady near 9.3 million barrels a day this year.Luckily for Saudi Arabia, low oil prices will not affect the economy nearly as much as they did a decade ago. In recent years, the largest economy in the Arab world has sought to diversify in a bid to cushion itself against wild oil price swings. Three years ago, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled Saudi Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s roadmap for economic diversification, global engagement, and enhanced quality of life. Vision 2023 is all about diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economy and creating dynamic job opportunities for its citizens through privatization of state-owned assets, including partial IPO of Saudi Aramco; unlocking underdeveloped industries such as renewable energy, manufacturing and tourism and modernizing the curriculum and standards of Saudi educational institutions from childhood to higher learning.Well, it appears that Saudi’s Vision 2030 is already bearing fruit: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Economy and Planning has revealed that non-oil revenues hit 50% of the Kingdom's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, the highest level ever.Last year, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy was valued at 1.7 trillion Saudi Riyals (approximately 453 billion U.S. dollars) at constant prices, driven by steady growth in exports, investment and consumer spending. The Kingdom’s private-sector investments expanded 57% to reach a record high of 959 billion Saudi Riyals (254 billion dollars) while arts & entertainment and real service exports grew in triple-digits to the tune of 106% and 319%, respectively, reflecting the Kingdom’s transformation into a global destination for tourism and entertainment. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s food sector recorded 77% growth; transport and storage services increased 29%, health and education recorded growth of 10.8% while, trade, restaurants and hotels grew 7%. In the economic plan, Saudi Arabia has set a target to develop ~60 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, multiples higher than the current capacity of 2.8 GW. But make no mistake about it: Saudi Arabia has no plans to ditch its legacy fossil fuel business any time soon. Indeed, Saudi Aramco has unveiled plans to reach net-zero by 2050 without sacrificing oil and gas production. During a rare two-day visit by Fortune in early May, the world’s largest fossil fuel company lifted the curtain on dozens of research projects which the company believes will help it tackle climate change, even while pumping a mammoth 9 million barrels or so of oil a day. Aramco claims its tech breakthroughs have the potential to cut carbon emissions from each barrel of oil it produces by 15% by 2035, equivalent to 51.1 million tons of carbon a year.
OPEC+ to Extend Oil Production Cuts Through End of 2025 in Attempt to Keep Prices High -- OPEC+, the coalition of OPEC member nations and allied oil producers, announced on Sunday it would extend existing overall limits on oil production through 2025, attempting to ensure that prices do not fall below desired levels. Some individual nations would extend their cuts according to a variety of timelines, the cartel announced, while one member, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), would increase crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). Some of the cuts in place were the subject of significant international shock when imposed, particularly an October 2022 decision to cut OPEC+ production by 2 million bpd. The move prompted the administration of leftist President Joe Biden to accuse Saudi Arabia, one of the most influential members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of attempting to help Russia finance its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the leading member of OPEC+, but not an OPEC member state. Saudi Arabia responded with outrage to Biden at the time, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a statement thanking Riyadh for its support in an indirect rebuff to the accusation.The decision to extend the cuts has not, at press time, prompted similar ire from the White House. Oil prices also went down on Monday, which analysts attributed to the fact that OPEC+ presented an end in sight for many smaller cuts discussed at its meeting this weekend.According to the Saudi news outlet al-Arabiya, current cuts across the OPEC+ memberships would remain in place through the end of December 2025. Those overall limits stand at around 2 million bpd, as agreed upon in October 2022. “In addition, eight countries said they would also extend voluntary supply cuts made at Riyadh’s request to further support the market,” the network detailed: “Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.”In total, OPEC+ is cutting nearly 6 million bpd, including the individual limits. Some of the voluntary cuts are expected to end as recently as September, however.The OPEC+ decisions appeared to drive oil prices down on Monday despite the confirmation of extended limits on production. Brent crude prices fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since February on Monday, the industry site OilPrice.com reported. “On Monday at 11:54 a.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 3.29% at $78.44, for a loss of $2.67 on the day,” the outlet detailed. “West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 3.51% at $74.29 per barrel, for a loss of $2.70 per barrel.” Analysts suggested the explanation for the drop is that at least some of the oil production cuts are now scheduled to end in October and, outside of OPEC, the world expected America’s oil output to continue breaking records. Brent crude is often used to understand the average oil price around the world, while the WTI is a closer estimate of American oil prices. “This deal looks to draw a line under attempts to drive energy prices sharply higher for the time being,” “While it will extend cuts for some key Opec members like Saudi Arabia and Russia well into 2025, it will also start to roll back some measures as soon as October, which is earlier than the market had expected,” another analyst, Kathleen Brooks of XTB, told NBC. “The US, the world’s largest oil and gas producer, is heading for another year of record production,” Emirati newspaper The National observed on Monday, “although with a significantly smaller increase as companies scale back activity following a wave of acquisitions in the industry, analysts have said.” The fall in prices also accounts for expectations that oil demand will continue to increase, particularly in the world’s two most populous nations, China and India. China and India are both members of the BRICS coalition, a growing group of countries attempting to establish independence from the U.S. dollar and distance themselves from America generally. BRICS also features oil heavyweights such as Russia, Iran, and the UAE, and the full membership of Saudi Arabia is pending as of early this year. Both have dramatically increased purchases of Russian and Iranian oil, though they have also leveraged their massive demand to seek the lowest prices – an irritant for Iran in particular, hobbled by decades of sanctions. While enjoying growing demand from allied states, Russia has also lent itself to the Saudi-led effort to keep production of oil low to prevent a significant drop in prices. In December, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin assured Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman of his commitment to the plan. Visiting Riyadh, Putin signed onto a joint statement that suggested both would oppose any suggestion of increasing oil production too quickly at the OPEC+ forum. “In the field of energy, the two sides commended the close cooperation between them and the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets,” the joint statement read. “They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to adhere to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy.”
Oil Prices Shed Over 3% As Market Digests OPEC+ Move - Brent crude was trading down well over 3% on Monday, marking the first time the global benchmark has been below $80 since February, with the U.S. crude benchmark down over 3.5% following the OPEC+ agreement to start phasing out voluntary cuts in October. On Monday at 11:54 a.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 3.29% at $78.44, for a loss of $2.67 on the day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 3.51% at $74.29 per barrel, for a loss of $2.70 per barrel. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend both voluntary and group-wide production cuts until 2025, with Energy Intelligence’s Amena Bakr noting that the voluntary cuts would be extended until the third quarter of 2024, after which the countries currently cutting would begin to bring back production if the market conditions are right.“We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth ... not pockets of growth here and there,” Reuters cited Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman as saying. Oil prices have responded in a downward spiral due to the fact that the majority of the total cuts from both categories come from the voluntary scheme. Total cuts are 3.66 million barrels per day, while 2.2 million bpd of that is accounted for by the voluntary scheme. Additionally, the UAE’s production quota was adjusted upwards with a baseline of 300,000 bpd. “Some people read the OPEC statement, particularly the part about the adding barrels back from the voluntary cut, as bearish,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC. Markets are also being cautioned that the latest OPEC+ decisions could be reversed, depending on market conditions. “They were pretty clear that this is going to be data dependent. As we get to the end of August, if the fundamental picture looks worse than what we have now, they would pause that addition,” Croft added.
Oil hits four-month low as OPEC+ decision fails to allay demand worries (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled by $3 a barrel on Monday to their lowest in nearly four months, as investors worried that a complicated OPEC+ output decision could lead to higher supplies later in the year even though demand growth has been slow.Brent crude futures fell by $2.75, or 3.4%, to settle at $78.36 a barrel, closing below $80 for the first time since Feb. 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also closed at a near four-month low of $74.22 a barrel, down by $2.77 or 3.6% from Friday.Both contracts were down by $3 a barrel in post-settlement trading. OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to extend most of its oil output cuts into 2025 but left room for voluntary cuts from eight members to be gradually unwound from October onward. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the outcome was negative for oil prices as the phasing out of voluntary cuts shows a strong desire by several OPEC+ members to bring back output despite recent increases in global oil stocks. "The communication of a surprisingly detailed default plan to unwind extra cuts makes it harder to maintain low production if the market turns out softer than bullish OPEC expectations," Goldman Sachs analysts said. Other analysts also called the group's decision incrementally bearish for oil prices in light of high interest rates and rising output from non-OPEC producers like the United States. "Ultimately, a combination of factors has come into play," "When OPEC+ took the decision it did over the weekend, in a reasonably well-supplied crude market, traders factored in the macro picture alongside a dwindling risk premium (with talk of a ceasefire in Gaza) and went net short," Sharma said. An aide to the Israeli prime minister confirmed on Sunday that Israel had accepted a framework deal for winding down the Gaza war, although the Israeli side called it a flawed deal. Signs of weakening demand growth have also weighed on oil prices in recent months, with data on U.S. fuel consumption in focus. The U.S. government will release estimates of oil stocks and demand on Wednesday, which will show how much gasoline was consumed around the Memorial Day weekend, the start to the U.S. driving season. "The hard numbers are that the market is well-supplied," "If we do not get a spectacular number on Memorial Day in the U.S., that's going to be game over," . U.S. gasoline futures fell more than 3% on Monday to a more than three-month low of $2.34 a gallon. U.S. efforts to replenish the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could provide some support for oil prices. The United States is buying another 3 million barrels for the SPR at an average price of $77.69 a barrel, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday.
Oil prices down to four-month lows amid OPEC+ decision, cease-fire talks -- Oil prices fell to four-month lows on Tuesday following the OPEC+ decision to gradually phase out output cuts until the end of September 2025 and on allayed supply concerns with cease-fire hopes in Gaza. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $77.39 per barrel at 10.23 a.m. local time (0723 GMT), a drop of 1.24% from the closing price of $78.36 per barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $73.07 per barrel at the same time, a 1.54% fall from the previous session that closed at $74.22 per barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, declared on Sunday that the group agreed to extend additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), announced in November 2023, until the end of September 2024. However, the cuts of 2.2 million bpd will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2025. Furthermore, the group announced that the 300,000 bpd production increase in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will be phased in gradually from January 2025 until the end of September 2025. This decision put downward pressure on oil prices by easing supply concerns, despite the output cut decision taken by the OPEC+ group. Meanwhile, growing cease-fire possibilities in the Middle East, home to the vast majority of global oil reserves, alleviated supply angst. US President Joe Biden confirmed Israel's "readiness to move forward" with a cease-fire proposal presented to Hamas last week during a call with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the White House said Monday. During their conversation, Biden "confirmed that the comprehensive cease-fire and hostage release deal now on the table offers a concrete roadmap for ending the crisis in Gaza," the executive mansion said in a statement. The plan was presented to Hamas on Thursday night. The White House said earlier Monday that it is "awaiting" the Palestinian group's official response. Hamas, for its part, said it will "respond positively to any proposal that includes a permanent cease-fire, a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction efforts, the return of the displaced, and the completion of a comprehensive hostage exchange deal." On the other hand, uncertainties about when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates continue to raise demand concerns. Analysts consider it more likely that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, following data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday. The probability of the Fed's first rate cut in September rose to 68%, to 98% for November, and to 58% for December. Low interest rates make the US dollar weaker against other currencies, making oil cheaper. This generates stronger demand, limiting further price falls.
Oil Extends Losses on Oversupply Concerns, US Macros -- Oil futures fell by more than $1 bbl Tuesday morning, extending yesterday's steep losses sparked by amplified demand concerns in the U.S. and OPEC+ plans to raise production beginning in October. Market sentiment turned markedly bearish after a month-long wait-and-see period in which prices traded in a narrow channel as more and more signs of lower-than-expected oil demand in OECD countries emerged and a potential recovery of the U.S. manufacturing seemed to be losing steam. Sunday's surprising announcement by eight OPEC+ members to start unwinding some 2.2 million bpd of voluntary output cuts raised concerns about the market shifting into oversupply by the end of the year. The Institute of Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI for May, released yesterday, slid for a second month in a row, and at 48.7 -- the lowest monthly reading since February -- fell well short of expectations. This was followed by the Atlanta Federal Reserve's fifth consecutive downward revision to their Q2 U.S. GDP growth estimate, which was lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%. Just last Friday, the estimate stood at 3.5%. Calendar spreads having considerably narrowed since early April reflected shifting supply-demand balance expectations, with the Brent prompt spread flirting with contango over the past week and the six-month spread dropping below $1.50 bbl, the smallest since early January. Near 8:00 a.m. EDT, WTI futures for July delivery fell $1.38 to trade near $72.84 bbl, and Brent for August delivery dropped $1.26 bbl to $77.10. RBOB for July delivery traded near $2.3192 gal, down $0.0164, and ULSD for July delivery fell $0.0214 gal to $2.2748.
Crude oil prices drop nearly 8% in just 5 sessions to hit a 4-month low on worries over higher supply - Crude oil prices, which had been buoyed by OPEC+'s production cuts, lost ground after the cartel announced a gradual plan to ease some of its restrictions. This worried traders about supply ticking up, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil prices in the last few sessions. Brent crude futures fell sharply from $83.94 per barrel to a four-month low of $77.60 in today's session, marking a 7.7% drop. Similarly, WTI tumbled by 8% over the last five sessions. Despite this recent decline, crude prices remain higher for the year due to ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Middle East to Ukraine. Also Read: Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: Will Nifty 50 break its record today if Narendra Modi-led NDA retains power? On Sunday, OPEC+ announced an agreement to extend most of their supply cuts through the third quarter, with a plan to gradually phase them out over the next 12 months, earlier than some OPEC watchers had assumed. The accord prolongs roughly 2 million barrels per day of cuts, which have played a key role in supporting crude prices above $80 per barrel this year. By December, an additional 500,000 barrels per day is expected to re-enter the market, with a total of 1.8 million barrels per day anticipated to return by June 2025. Also Read: Stock market today: Investors lose ₹26 lakh crore as election race gets tighter than what exit polls predicted This decision comes even as global oil demand appears dim and robust supply from non-OPEC members persists. The agreement aims to support oil prices while addressing internal pressures from members such as the United Arab Emirates, which has pushed for higher output levels. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. deemed the OPEC decision bearish, whereas UBS Group AG and RBC Capital Markets LLC expressed confidence in the alliance's ability to maintain market control. Most analysts had anticipated OPEC would extend the production curbs through the end of the year, as reported by Bloomberg. Additionally, the U.S. government is set to release inventory and product-supplied data on Wednesday. This data, considered a proxy for demand, will reveal how much gasoline was consumed around Memorial Day weekend, signaling the start of the U.S. driving season. On the demand side, data indicated that U.S. manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in May, while construction spending fell unexpectedly for the second month in a row in April, driven by declines in non-residential activity. Prices were also impacted by a fragile economic outlook in top consumer China and uncertainties about the pace of interest rate reductions in major industrialized economies. Investors are now awaiting the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday to assess the health of the U.S. economy and determine whether these figures might influence the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts in September. Currently, traders are pricing in about a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Oil prices fall amid increasing U.S. inventories, OPEC+ supply plans --Oil prices continued to decline in early Asian trading on Wednesday, following a report indicating an increase in US crude andfuel inventories, which has heightened concerns about demand growth. Brent crude futures dropped by 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to USD77.38 per barrel as of 0005 GMT. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, to USD73.07 per barrel. This followed a drop of about a dollar per barrel in the previous session on Tuesday, and a significant decline of approximately three dollars per barrel on Monday. The recent price pressures stem from the OPEC+ alliance's announcement of plans to increase oil supplies starting in October, despite weak demand growth signals. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed that stocks of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates in the United States rose last week. Typically, high inventories suggest that supply is outpacing demand. Specifically, the API's figures showed an increase of more than four million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending May 31, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 2.3 million barrel decline. Additionally, gasoline stocks saw a significant rise of over four million barrels, far exceeding the anticipated increase of two million barrels predicted by analysts. These developments have contributed to the ongoing decline in oil prices, reflecting market concerns over surplus supply and subdued demand growth.
Oil prices see 'oversold bounce' after recent losses as traders weigh a rise in U.S. supply --Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, with prices recouping a portion of their losses from a five-session decline.Official U.S. data revealing weekly gains in commercial crude, gasoline and distillate inventories, however, helped to limit gains.West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for July delivery CL.1 CLN24 rose 82 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $74.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.August Brent crude BRN00 BRNQ24, the global benchmark, added 89 cents, or 1.2%, at $78.41 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. On Tuesday, both Brent and WTI futures tallied a fifth straight session loss.July gasoline RBN24 edged up by 0.2% to $2.35 a gallon, while July heating oil HON24 tacked on 0.7% to $2.30 a gallon.Natural gas for July delivery NGN24 settled at $2.76 per million British thermal units, up 6.6%, after losing 6.2% Tuesday. Oil prices staged an "oversold bounce after finishing lower for the fifth consecutive day on Tuesday," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com."It remains to be seen whether this recovery will last, given ongoing concerns over demand and over the OPEC+ decision to eventually phase out voluntary output cuts at a time when non-OPEC supply is on the rise," he told MarketWatch.However, these concerns "might be priced in by now, which should mean that prices could find some support especially now that we are in the middle of the U.S. driving season, when demand tends to pick up," Razaqzada added.Separately, however, state-owned Saudi Aramco (SA:2222) said it will reduce its selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia in July, a move that will likely raise concerns over weakness in demand from its Asian customers.Data from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday, meanwhile, showed that finished motor-gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, fell to 8.946 million barrels a day last week, from 9.148 mbd the week before.The EIA also reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended May 31.On average, analysts had forecast a crude-supply decline of 2.8 million barrels, according to a poll conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude-inventory climb of 4.05 million barrels, according to a source citing the data. The EIA report also showed weekly supply gains of 2.1 million barrels for gasoline and 3.2 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey called for inventory gains of 600,000 barrels for gasoline and 700,000 barrels for distillates.U.S. oil production was unchanged at 13.1 million barrels per day in the latest week, the EIA said, while crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub rose by 800,000 barrels to 35.4 million barrels.WTI and Brent closed Tuesday at their lowest since early February, extending losses seen after OPEC+ over the weekend announced a plan to begin unwinding a suite of voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels a day over 12 months beginning in October, while also extending a program of group cuts totaling 3.66 mbd through the end of 2025.Meanwhile, commodity strategists at ING argued that oil's recent slump in prices may have gone too far. "While the market has been disappointed that OPEC+ will gradually unwind cuts, it is important to remember that this is only from October. Our balance sheet continues to show a tightening in the oil market over the third quarter. Therefore, we believe the scale of the selloff at the front end of the forward curve is overdone," said strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, in a note.
Oil prices rebound from four-month lows after OPEC+ decision triggered selloff - Crude oil futures rose more than 1% on Wednesday, bouncing back from four-month lows after a decision by OPEC+ to increase production triggered a selloff this week.U.S. crude and global benchmark Brent are down nearly 4% this week after eight OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to gradually phase out 2.2 million barrels per day in production cuts.The selloff was overdone, said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. OPEC+ won't start increasing production until October, and the global oil balance sheet will tighten beforehand, Patterson said.Here are Wednesday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate July contract: $74.07 a barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.12%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is up 3.3%.
- Brent August contract: $78.41 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.15%. Year to date, the global benchmark is up 1.78%.
- RBOB Gasoline July contract: $2.35 per gallon, up 0.17%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up 11.9%.
- Natural Gas July contract: $2.75 per thousand cubic feet, up 6.61%. Year to date, natural gas is up 9.67%.
"The technicals also suggest that the oil market is entering oversold territory," Patterson told clients in a research note Wednesday. U.S. crude oil "has a history of bouncing from oversold territory rather quickly versus camping out in the basement for days on end," Yawger said U.S. oil could rally back to a range of $76.15 to $80.62 per barrel in the coming days as speculators cover short positions, before the market "reverses course and drills lower again."
The Market Broke its Five-Day Selling Spree on Wednesday on Renewed Hopes That the Federal Reserve Would Cut Interest Rates in September - The oil market continued to trend higher on Thursday after the market broke its five-day selling spree on Wednesday on renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September. The market was also supported by comments made by OPEC+ ministers, who stated that the producer group could tweak its latest output agreement if needed to support the oil market. The market was further supported by the European Central Bank cutting interest rates for the first time in five years on Thursday. The crude market posted a low of $74.06 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and continued to retrace its recent selloff, retracing more than 38% of its move from a high of $80.62 to a low of $72.48 as it rallied to a high of $75.79 in afternoon trading. The July WTI contract later settled in a sideways trading range and ended the session up $1.48 at $75.55, while the August Brent contract ended the session up $1.46 at $79.87. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.65 cents at $2.3576 and the RB market settling up 4.39 cents at $2.3975. OPEC+ ministers and officials said OPEC+ could tweak its latest oil output agreement which calls for some output cuts to be reversed later this year if needed to support the market. The ministers and officials, at an economic forum at St Petersburg, also praised the agreement and said the oil demand outlook was positive. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ can pause or reverse oil production increases if the market weakens. He said OPEC+ would provide the market with a “clear path” on how any additional barrels might be supplied. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais defended the recent adjustments to the OPEC+ oil output deal, calling it a success. He expressed optimism about continued strong oil demand, citing a rebound in travel. The United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, said the country has been committed to OPEC+, consumers and the market despite some media reports suggesting otherwise. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said the current OPEC+ agreement is helping to balance oil supply and demand and provides certainty for energy markets, adding that the group might adjust it if necessary to support the market. He said a decline in oil prices after OPEC+ meeting was caused by “speculative factors” and misinterpretations of the agreement that was reached. He expects oil prices to be around $80-85/barrel by the end of the year. He said Russia is seeing a gradual increase in global oil demand but added that Russia does not expect oil demand to peak in the near future. Separately, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said Russia continued to reduce oil production in May under its agreement with OPEC+ partners. He said the exact production volumes will be known in a week. He said that oil production in Russia in 2024 is expected to be 505-515 million tons. Last month, Russia said it had exceeded its OPEC+ production quota in April for “technical reasons” and would soon present to the OPEC Secretariat its plan to compensate for the error.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 34 shipments on Line 20, which carries distillates from Atlanta, Georgia to Nashville, Tennessee.
Oil settles higher on hopes Fed will track European Central Bank rate cuts (Reuters) - Oil settled up 2% on Thursday after the European Central Bank opted to cut interest rates, spurring hopes that the Fed will follow suit, and OPEC+ ministers reassured investors the latest oil output agreement could change depending on the market. Brent crude futures settled $1.46 higher or 1.86% at $79.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up $1.48 or 2% at $75.55. On Thursday, the European Central Bank went ahead with its first interest rate cut since 2019, citing progress in tackling inflation but cautioning the fight was far from over. Denmark's central bank then lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.35%. Analysts in the U.S. saw the European rate cuts as a likely precursor to Fed rate cuts. Lower fuel costs and an easing of post-pandemic supply snags have helped drive inflation down to 2.6% in the 20 countries using the euro, from 10% in late 2022. Investors are now less certain than they were a few weeks ago that inflation has retreated enough for the ECB to institute a major easing cycle. In the U.S., economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, according to Reuters' May 31-June 5 poll. "Today the ECB rate cuts are helping, and casting a view that the Fed will finally follow suit here in the U.S. as well which is supportive, but both central banks are cutting in the face of a slowing economy which is not necessarily supportive of oil demand,” The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, and first-quarter unit labor costs rose by less than previously thought, the Labor Department said. While this shows a cooling labor market, it is unlikely to push the Fed to start rate cuts. Meanwhile, trading house Trafigura's chief economist Saad Rahim said the OPEC+ decision to phase out some output cuts, combined with strong fuel supplies, has driven oil prices lower. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed on Sunday to extend most production cuts into 2025 but left room for voluntary cuts from eight members to be unwound gradually. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Thursday that OPEC+ can pause or reverse production increases if it decides the market is not strong enough. And Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the group might adjust the deal if necessary, adding that the post-meeting price drop was caused by misinterpretation of the agreement and "speculative factors". "Oil markets have over-reacted to the mildly negative OPEC+ meeting outcome. Demand indicators have certainly softened somewhat recently, but are not falling off a cliff," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a note. Elsewhere, a merchant vessel reported that an explosion took place near it in the Red Sea on Thursday about 19 nautical miles west of the Yemeni port city of Mokha, British security firm Ambrey said. The vessel fit the target profile of Yemeni Houthi militants, Ambrey said in a note. Militants have attacked ships off the country's coast for several months in solidarity with Palestinians fighting Israel in Gaza. The vessel was en route from Europe to the United Arab Emirates. “This puts more risk on top of a market that was already nervous,” “And if it turns out to be an oil tanker, this will probably raise the stakes,” he added.
Crude oil gains as Saudi, Russia clarify stand on output increase - The Hindu BusinessLine -Crude oil futures traded higher on Friday morning as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they can pause or reverse voluntary production increases if they find market is not strong enough. At 9.53 am on Friday, August Brent oil futures were at $80.03, up by 0.20 per cent, and July crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $75.75, up by 0.26 per cent. June crude oil futures were trading at ₹6327 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during initial trading on Friday morning against the previous close of ₹6326, up by 0.02 per cent, and July futures were trading at ₹6323 against the previous close of ₹6322, up by 0.02 per cent. Participating in an event in Russia, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, said Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, can pause or reverse voluntary output increases if it decides the market is not strong enough. The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Alexander Novak, who participated in that event, said: “We are ready to react quickly to market uncertainties.” On Sunday, OPEC+ had announced a production output cut of around 5.8 million barrels a day till 2025. This cut included 3.66 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2024. Another round of around 2.2 million barrels a day cuts till September-end were part of this announcement. Though the OPEC+ decided to maintain the production output cut of 3.6 million barrels a day till the end of 2024, it announced its decision to phase out the 2.2 million barrels a day cut between October 2024 and September 2025. This decision had pushed the crude oil prices to four-month lows as the market feared an oversupply from higher production. However, OPEC+ media statement on Sunday had also clarified that the monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus witnessed a growth in May. According to General Administration of Customs of China, trade surplus of that country increased to $82.62 billion in May 2024 from $65.55 billion in May 2023. Market was expecting a trade surplus of $73 billion for May 2024. Exports grew much more than imports in May. Exports advanced by 7.6 per cent, beating forecasts of a 6 per cent growth, and imports increased by 1.8 per cent, below the market expectations of a 4.2 per cent increase. The trade surplus with the US increased to $30.8 billion in May from $27.2 billion in April. China is a major consumer of crude oil in the global market. Also read: Crude oil marginally down as industry data show rise in US inventory The European Central Bank announced interest rate cut on Thursday. This is the first rate cut in five years since 2019. Market is now awaiting the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve next week, as any reduction in interest rate in that country will help boost the demand for commodities such as crude oil. June mentha oil futures were trading at ₹927.90 on MCX against the previous close of ₹916, up by 1.30 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), July jeera contracts were trading at ₹29,325 against the previous close of ₹29,610, down by 0.96 per cent. July castorseed futures were trading at ₹5790 on NCDEX against the previous close of ₹5781, up by 0.16 per cent.
Oil dips on deflated US interest rate cut expectations, OPEC+ decision (Reuters) -Oil prices edged down on Friday and posted a third straight weekly loss as investors weighed OPEC+ reassurances against the latest U.S. jobs data that lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Brent crude futures settled 25 cents lower at $79.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) (CLc1) fell 2 cents to $75.53. Data showed U.S. jobs growth accelerated far more than expected in May, keeping the Fed on track to hold off starting to cut interest rates until September at the earliest. The European Central Bank went ahead with its first interest rate cut since 2019 on Thursday, despite an increasingly uncertain inflation outlook. High borrowing costs can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil. "The jobs report indicated higher rates for longer," . "That tends to dampen enthusiasm on the oil market." The dollar rallied 0.8% to a more than one-week high shortly after the release of the jobs report. [USD/] However, oil prices have been buttressed by support from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia, indicating readiness to pause or reverse oil output increases. Still, crude fell for a third straight week on demand concerns, with Brent down 2.5% and WTI off 1.9%. Oil slipped earlier this week after analysts saw Sunday's OPEC+ meeting as an indication of rising supply, which is bearish for prices. The U.S. active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by four this week to 492, the lowest since January 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. Meanwhile, in China, data showed that although exports grew for a second month in May, crude oil imports fell, signalling demand concerns in the world's largest crude oil buyer. "Exports handsomely beat expectations," "But worryingly for oil, overall imports were again down." In Russia, the operations of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in southern Rostov region suffered significant disruptions after a fire following a drone attack on Thursday. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to June 4, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.
Oil Posts Weekly Loss as OPEC Plan Triggers Selloff - Oil posted a weekly decline as algorithmic traders accelerated selling pressure after OPEC+ announced a plan to loosen its production curbs. West Texas Intermediate settled below $76 on Friday for a 1.9% weekly decline. Still, prices rebounded from their lows after Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman led ministers in reiterating that the hike can be paused or reversed, depending on whether markets can take it. Earlier this week, crude slumped to a four-month low, with commodity trading advisers exacerbating the price declines. “OPEC+ members set about a charm offensive yesterday with the big guns of the pact deployed in a show of unison,” said John Evans, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd. The “intervention showed decent success as it was very well-timed.” The plan has drawn a mixed reaction from Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expressed doubt over its bearish effect because many members already are pumping above their assigned quotas, while Citigroup Inc. predicts full cuts will be maintained into next year. Oil has trended lower since early April due to concerns over demand and the perception that geopolitical risks to crude supplies are ebbing. However, risks surrounding the war in Ukraine and the Middle East have recently reignited, which could spur further price gains. WTI for July delivery settled little changed at $75.53 a barrel in New York. Brent for August settlement fell 25 cents to settle at $79.62 a barrel.
Merchant Ship Off Saudi Coast Reports "Significant Explosion" A "Short Distance" From Port Side - UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports a commercial vessel experienced a "significant explosion ... a short distance from the port side of the vessel." The incident occurred 50 nautical miles southwest of Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, in the southern Red Sea. "On inspection, no damage was found, vessel and crew are reported safe and is continuing to its next port of call," UKMTO wrote in an advisory on X. Bloomberg said, "There was no immediate claim for the blast but Houthi fighters based in Yemen have carried out multiple attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and have escalated such incidents since the Israel-Hamas war broke out last October." The Houthi's latest attack was on a bulk carrier last week near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Also, the Houthis have downed six US MQ-9 Reaper drones.The ongoing chaos in the Red Sea comes as the Iranian-backed terror group vowed it will continue its operations until the war in Gaza is brought to an end. One significant consequence of turmoil in the region is soaring containerized freight costs as capacity is stretched thin worldwide. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S warned about this on Tuesday.
Report: Saudis Still Slaughtering Migrants at the Yemeni Border - On Wednesday, the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) published a report that said Saudi Arabia is still slaughtering African migrants and Yemenis at its border with Yemen nearly a year after the indiscriminate killings were revealed.In July 2023, MMC issued a report that said Saudi border guards killed nearly 800 Ethiopian migrants and wounded about 1,700 in 2022. Human Rights Watch followed up with a similar report that said the killings could be a “crime against humanity.”After the reports were released, The New York Times reported that the US was aware of the mass killings on the border since 2022 but kept quiet. Around the time the US learned of the massacres, the Biden administration was publicly criticizing Riyadh for OPEC oil cuts.The MMC’s new report says that new evidence “appears to indicate that the Saudi border authorities at their southern border with Yemen are continuing to use live weapons to fire indiscriminately at Ethiopians and Yemenis crossing the border irregularly.”\
UN blacklist: Israel added over violations against children -The United Nations secretary-general is set to describe Israel and Hamas as waging a war that violates children’s rights, moving the country to the body’s “blacklist” in an upcoming report to the Security Council.Spokesman Stéphane Dujarric told reporters Friday that the head of Secretary-General António Guterres’ office informed Israel’s U.N. ambassador, Gilad Erdan, in a phone call that the nation would be in his report when he presents it to the council next week.Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will also be listed, according to a report by the Associated Press.Israel was outraged by the UN’s decision, reportedly sending news organizations a video of Erdan blasting the head of Guterres’ office during a phone call. Erdan also released a statement after the announcement.“Hamas will continue even more to use schools and hospitals because this shameful decision of the Secretary-General will only give Hamas hope to survive and extend the war and extend the suffering,” Erdan said. “Shame on him!”Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also reacted to the news in a post on X, saying that “the UN put itself on the black list of history today.”On the other side, Palestinian U.N. ambassador Riyad Mansour said adding Israel to the list is “an important step in the right direction,” but made it clear in a statement to AP that the decision “will not bring back tens of thousands of our children who were killed by Israel over decades.”Meanwhile, in a statement shared with Al Jazeera, senior Palestinian official Riad Malki said the move was overdue.“Now, faced with the catastrophe in Gaza that the world sees with its naked eyes with the genocide that specifically targets children and women, the UN secretary general no longer has excuses not to place Israel on the blacklist,” Malki said.Israel has faced strong international criticism over the number of civilian deaths in the eight-month war with Hamas. Questions have been asked about whether the country is doing enough to prevent civilian deaths.An Israeli airstrike at a school in Gaza Thursday left at least 40 people dead and 74 others injured, according to the United Nations, Hamas and Palestinian officials.
Israel Threatening to Take on Hezbollah After Cross-Border Attacks Produce Intense Wildfires by Yves Smith --Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has just visited the border area in northern Israel and vowed to take “intense action” against Hezbollah, as reported in lead stories in the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel. By what some may regard as an odd coincidence of timing, this announcement came the same day that a Syrian who shot at the US embassy in Beirut was injured in return fire and taken captive by the Lebanese army. We have recounted Alastair Crooke some months back describing how Israel has been politically committed to ending Hezbollah strikes into the border area with Lebanon, which has resulted in large scale evacuation, with reports ranging from 60,000 to as many as 100,000. Not as well covered has been that Hezbollah has been making these attacks to create a second mini-front in the Gaza war (as in if Israel would enter into a settlement with Palestinians, the attacks would presumably be dialed back to their former nuisance level) and that Israel has been firing into southern Lebanon, making life similarly miserable for its border town denizens.The displacement of these Israeli settlers has been a festering economic and political wound. Businesses there are shuttered. Israel is providing temporary housing. The settlers say they can’t/won’t go back until Hezbollah has been removed from the border, which Israel treats as meaning Hezbollah must withdraw or be forced to retreat to the Litani River. Mind you, Israel did not get that far in its failed 2006 war with Lebanon.1 By all accounts, Hezbollah is much stronger than then and Israel weaker.2 Hezbollah leader Hassam Nasrallah has said Lebanon will not cede one inch of territory to Israel. So we have a bit of an out-trade. From the Times of Israel in December: War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz on Friday warned that Israel would be forced to push the Hezbollah terror group away from the Lebanese border if the international community could not do so through diplomatic means. Note that the US and Israel idea of negotiating is Lebanon should cede its border areas because they say so, another element of the out-trade. However, despite the displaced Israeli setlers remaining vocal, not much has happened to advance their cause until perhaps today. One reason is that the IDF has gotten bogged down in Gaza. That underscores a second problem, the IDF has performed much less well against Hamas than officials had expected. But the third and big problem is that Israel is very likely to lose and lose more bigly against Hezbollah than in 2006. As both Scott Ritter and Crooke have explained, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have all organized themselves to fight Israel and the US. Both wage wars the same way: airpower heavy combat, with the plan/preference being to mount intense, overwhelming, but comparatively short conflicts. So all three forces have created deep and extensive tunnel networks so as to be beyond Israel and US fire. They have also worked out how to be effective with lots of relatively cheap weapons. Crooke stresses that they set out to fight attritional wars, which neither the US or Israel can handle well. and to dial up and down intensity of the engagements. So if the failure to get the border town settlers back into their homes is a festering wound, why has Israel not acted? I have no idea, but some commentators have suggested that saner heads in Israel, particularly in the IDF, have warned that a war with Lebanon would be a very bad idea. The only reason Hezbollah has not welcomed it is that Lebanon is an economic basket case. A war, even a comparatively short one where Hezbollah won, would still produce a lot of costs in terms of physical damage. What about the hope that the US would ride in to help Israel if Lebanon were to look like it was winning? Many in Israel keenly desire getting the US involved militarily. The fact that Israel has not (yet) escalated with Lebanon suggests they have doubts about how forcefully and effectively the US could intervene. The US has not been able to check the Houthis. US weapons stocks have been drained in the Ukraine war. Hezbollah’s tunnel systems reportedly dwarf those of Hamas. And they have lots more rockets and missiles too, some of them also more sophisticated. With that high-level overview, things are heating up because they have heated up, literally. The last set of Hezbollah barrages set off wildfires in northern Israel. Israel and Western accounts are depicting this escalation as kicked off by Hezbollah, although that is far from clear:
Israel confirms 4 more hostages have died in Gaza - Israel confirmed Monday that four more hostages have died in Gaza as pressure grows for a deal to end the war in the coastal strip and get all detainees released. The Israeli military identified the hostages as Haim Perry, 79; Yoram Metzger, 80; Amiram Cooper, 85; and Nadav Popplewell, 51, and said their families were notified. Perry, Metzger and Cooper had appeared in a December video released by Hamas. Israel said the bodies of all four hostages are still being held by Hamas in Gaza but that Israel had confirmed their deaths through intelligence and a Ministry of Health expert committee. The circumstances of their deaths are still under investigation, the military said. The war between Israel and Hamas is nearing the eight-month mark. A deal to release the hostages and and reach a cease-fire in Gaza has failed to materialize. President Biden, however, announced a three-part proposal last week that would see the hostages released and wind down the war. Some 130 hostages remain in Gaza, but it’s unclear how many are still alive. Hamas abducted around 240 hostages Oct. 7, when fighters invaded southern Israel and killed around 1,200 people. Last month, Israeli forces found the bodies of 22-year-old German Israeli Shani Louk, 28-year-old Amit Buskila and 56-year-old Itzhak Gelerenter. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing increasing pressure domestically to get the hostages home. He is also facing international pressure to bring the war against Hamas to an end, as more than 36,000 Palestinians have died.
Why I Don't Condemn Hamas For October 7 -- by Caitlin Johnstone - In 1999, a woman named Cindy Hendy was stabbed in the neck with an ice pick by a woman named Cynthia Vigil inside a trailer home in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Vigil then fled the scene to a nearby residence, whose owner promptly called the police. She was never charged with any crime.The reason Cynthia Vigil was never charged with any crime despite having stabbed Cindy Hendy in the neck with an ice pick was because Hendy was an accomplice of the serial killer David Parker Ray, also known as the Toy Box Killer. Vigil’s escape from the trailer where Ray and Hendy had been imprisoning and torturing her led to the pair’s subsequent arrest. Ray died in prison three years later, the full extent of his murder spree still unknown. Hendy served 19 years and was released in 2019. Cynthia Vigil was never charged with any crime because anyone could see that violent force was an entirely understandable and legitimate response to having been kidnapped and subjected to horrific treatment. It never at any time occurred to anyone to say that she should have acted differently, and it most certainly never occurred to anyone to make her single act of desperate violence the major story instead of the fact that there was a serial killer who’d been abducting women and torturing them in his murder dungeon. And, I mean, imagine how absurd it would have been if they’d done that. Imagine if, after the Toy Box Killer story broke, all the major headlines were about a woman stabbing another woman with an ice pick. Imagine if the ice pick stabbing was all the press ever wanted to talk about, for month after month after month, instead of the fact that people had been imprisoned and subjected to savage abuse by a cruel serial murderer. Imagine how absurd it would’ve been if, any time someone was interviewed about this case in the news, they were asked if they condemned Cynthia Vigil for her brutal, evil, sadistic ice pick stabbing of Cindy Hendy. Imagine how absurd it would’ve been if the press kept framing the incident as though Hendy was just standing around, innocently minding her own business, and was then victimized by a barbaric and unprovoked attack by Vigil. Imagine how absurd it would’ve been if everyone kept the story focused on the ice pick stabbing, and any time anyone tried to point out that the stabbing only occurred because Cynthia Vigil was being imprisoned by a deranged serial killer and his female accomplice they were hysterically denounced as Vigil apologists and supporters of neck-stabbing, and told that nothing — absolutely nothing — could ever excuse or justify the violence that Vigil inflicted upon Hendy on that terrible day. Imagine how absurd it would’ve been if, rather than coming to Vigil’s rescue and arresting those who’d victimized her, the police had returned Vigil to her captors and helped David Parker Ray resume his murderous lifestyle. Imagine if, while helping David Parker Ray re-establish his status quo lifestyle of kidnapping, torture and murder, arguments were made by law enforcement and the media that Ray’s murder dungeon has a right to exist, and that Ray and his accomplices have a right to defend their home and their way of life. Imagine if Ray had greatly escalated his murderousness and sadism in full view of the entire world following Cynthia Vigil’s attempted escape, and people defended this by solemnly invoking the horrible, awful day when Vigil launched an unprovoked ice pick attack on Cindy Hendy’s neck. Imagine if, in order to help justify their support for Ray’s murderous rampage, the police and the media had sown lies and disinformation about what Vigil did during her escape attempt, claiming she sexually assaulted Hendy and beheaded her baby and put its body in an oven. It’s hard to imagine anything being more ridiculous, is it not? It’s hard to imagine a more obscene reversal of victim and victimizer, and a more absurd response to someone’s desperate efforts to escape from her abusive captors. It’s about as backwards and insane as anyone could possibly be about anything, and anyone who tried to get you to believe such an absurdity would obviously be a psychologically abusive gaslighter who should never be believed about anything ever again. Clearly they have a demented perspective, every part of which should be rejected in every way possible. Anyway, yeah. That’s why I’ve never condemned Hamas for October 7.
China's manufacturing surges, Caixin PMI shows, but global risks grow (Reuters) -China's factory activity grew the fastest in about two years in May due to production gains and new orders, particularly at smaller firms, a private sector survey showed on Monday, lifting the outlook for the second quarter. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May from 51.4 the previous month, the highest since June 2022, and beating analysts' forecasts of 51.5. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction. China's factory activity expands at fastest clip in 14 months, Caixin PMI shows China's May factory activity likely expanded at steady pace, recovery still fragile: Reuters poll China's May factory activity likely expanded at steady pace, recovery still fragile: Reuters poll China's services activity eases in April but still solid, Caixin PMI shows China's services activity eases in April but still solid, Caixin PMI shows To counter soft domestic demand and a years-long property crisis, China has boosted infrastructure investment and ploughed funds into high-tech manufacturing to bolster the broader economy this year. However, the full effects of its industry policy support have yet to be felt by businesses and workers. The upbeat Caixin PMI contrasts with an official PMI survey on Friday that showed a surprise fall in manufacturing activity. The divergent indicators combined with other mixed data suggest the economic recovery is struggling to sustain momentum in the second quarter. "The key question is whether China's exports will continue to hold up well in the coming months," said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. "The export orders index dropped significantly in the official PMI but remained relatively resilient in the Caixin PMI." The Caixin survey is believed to be skewed more towards smaller, export-oriented firms than the much broader official PMI. According to the Caixin survey, output rose at the fastest pace since June 2022, with firms in the consumer segment reporting sharp growth in May. Production was underpinned by higher new work inflows, as stronger domestic and global demand supported client interest in new products, according to respondents. Thanks to some improved economic indicators and fresh policy steps in the first quarter, the International Monetary Fund last week lifted its forecast on China's 2024 economic growth to 5% from an earlier forecast of 4.6%. But that was still below a previous IMF forecast for 5.2% growth. Rating agency Moody's raised its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.5% on Monday from 4.0%, while retaining its projection for 2025 at 4.0%. The outlook for China's trade remained volatile due to a lacklustre global economy. According to Caixin, new export orders grew at a much slower pace in May, coming off April's 41-month high. Some survey respondents said recent trade fairs had led to new work, while others referred to their strategic expansion into overseas markets. To meet ongoing production requirements, factories stepped up their purchasing activity, with the quantity of purchases accelerating at the fastest pace in three years. Sentiment among producers improved from April as they expected market demand to improve both at home and abroad. Rising metals, plastics and energy prices led to an increase in average input costs. The rate of input price inflation was the highest since last October. However, employment remained weak, staying in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month. The rate of job losses slowed, with makers of consumer goods even recording a slight rise in staffing levels.
China services activity grows more than expected in May- Caixin PMI -- China’s services sector grew more than expected in May, private purchasing managers index data showed on Wednesday, as persistent stimulus measures from Beijing benefited some facets of the economy. The Caixin services PMI rose to 54 in May, more than expectations of 52.6 and higher than the 52.5 reading in April. Increased new business- on improving local and overseas demand- were a key boost to the sector. Wednesday’s reading showed the services PMI expanding for a 17th consecutive month. Still, the Caixin data contrasted with official PMI data released last week, which showed that that non-manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in May than April. But the Caixin PMI survey differs from the official survey in its scope and areas covered. The Caixin survey covers smaller, private businesses in southern China, while the official survey focuses more on larger, state-run businesses in the north. Still, Wednesday’s data indicated that recent stimulus measures from Beijing were helping support some facets of the world’s second-largest economy, a trend that could put it on track to meet the government’s 5% annual growth target. But weak official PMI data signaled that the country’s biggest enterprises were still under pressure from weak demand and sluggish spending. Beijing rolled out a swathe of stimulus measures in recent months to support growth. But they so far appeared to be providing only limited support to the Chinese economy. A deflationary trend and a property market crisis are the two biggest points of contention for the economy.
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates By 25bps As Expected, First G7 Central Bank To Launch Easing Cycle -As widely expected after significant dovish commentary in recent months, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps from 5.00% to 4.75% as a majority of economists expected, and signaled that it is "reasonable to expect further cuts" if inflation eases.The 25bps cut, which comes just under a year since its last 25bps rate hike in July 2023, means that Canada is the first G7-member central bank to launch an easing cycle.In the drafted opening remarks of Governor Tiff Macklem wrote that: "If inflation continues to ease, and our confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the 2% target continues to increase, it is reasonable to expect further cuts to our policy interest rate. But we are taking our interest rate decisions one meeting at a time."Here is the balance of his commentary:
- "Further progress in bringing down inflation is likely to be uneven and risks remain."
- "If inflation continues to ease, and our confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the 2% target continues to increase, it is reasonable to expect further cuts to our policy interest rate."
- "But total consumer price index (CPI) inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing" "Inflation could be higher if global tensions escalate, if house prices in Canada rise faster than expected, or if wage growth remains high relative to productivity."
- "With the economy in excess supply, there is room for growth even as inflation continues to recede."
- "Although Q1 growth was weaken than bank forecast, consumption growth was solid while business investment and housing activity also increased."
Taking a closer look at the BOC statement we find the following highlights:
- With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, Governing Council agreed that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive and reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points.
- Recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain. Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
- Three month measures of core inflation suggest continued downward momentum in CPI
While the decision was largely expected, Canadian stocks are enjoying a broad-based rally on the central bank’s interest rate cut and dovish tone. All 11 S&P/TSX Composite Sectors are green at 9:52 a.m. in Toronto, led by interest-rate sensitive utilities. At the moment, 168 index members rising, 47 falling and 7 unchanged. In FX, the USDCAD rose 0.2% after the decision while Canada 2y yield dips 4bp.
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