Powell: Higher income, savings data factor into interest rate path - Inflation and unemployment are the two key data points the Federal Reserve leans on when setting monetary policy, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged another potentially relevant metric: personal savings. Powell flagged a recent upward revision to income and savings data as a sign of economic strength. He said the information could factor into the central bank's monetary policy discourse during the Fed's next interest rate meeting in November.
Why the Fed's rate cut won't immediately help car buyers or sales - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest ratesfor the first time in more than four years is expected to eventually boost new vehicle sales, but not as quickly or by as much as some may expect.The rate cut earlier this month by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, will take time to trickle down to auto loan rates, which remain near decades-high levels of more than 9.61% for a new vehicle and nearly 14% for a used car or truck, according to Cox Automotive."If the Fed is accurate in their forecasts, we will be living with rates more than two and a half points higher than most of the last 24 years," said Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke. "In other words, conditions will be better than what we've endured for the last year, but affordability challenges will not be solved by this new path for rates."The biggest near-term improvement in auto loan rates isn't expected until early next year, according to Smoke. He said that unlike the cost of home loans, which has come down in recent months, auto loan rate changes can be delayed because they're really a function of longer-term bond yields that are based on loan performances. Auto loan 30-day delinquency rates have risen considerably in recent years, according to a Thursday note from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Although they remain below the peak levels of the Great Recession, as of the end of 2023, auto loan delinquency rates exceeded pre-pandemic levels by about 60 basis points.In addition to the high interest rates, consumers continue to face near-record-high average new vehicle prices and inflated used vehicle prices. Both have fallen from peaks during the Covid pandemic and supply chain problems of recent years but remain elevated compared with historical levels.Edmunds.com reports average financing for a new vehicle was more than $40,700 in August, with a payoff term of 68.8 months, or 5.7 years. That compares with average financing before the pandemic of roughly $33,000 over 69.7 months, or 5.8 years, in September 2019.The difference in those payments over the terms of the deals is $3,162, or $178 more per month, according to Edmunds."New vehicle sales fell slightly in Q3 as affordability challenges continued to loom large for American car shoppers in the form of historically elevated prices and interest rates," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' head of insights. Should rates continue to decline, consumers will see some relief in monthly payments. BofA Securities estimates each point decrease in the Fed benchmark rate equates to a roughly $20 decrease in an average monthly payment for a new vehicle.
BankThink: Jobs, unemployment data economists and the Fed need is at risk | American Banker - In September, the Federal Reserve took the important step of cutting interest rates for the first time in over four years. As the CEO of a financial institution, I recognize the impact of this move on the people I serve and the many Americans who have struggled with higher costs and inflation. These rate cuts will allow banks to empower organizations and individuals to advance positive social change by helping us get more affordable loans to changemakers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been so underfunded, for so long, that it has been forced to propose cuts to the vital Current Population Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate. Congress cannot allow that to happen.
Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook - From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook (Watch here on YouTube). Excerpt: Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress over the past two years toward achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Labor market conditions are solid, having cooled from their previously overheated state. Inflation has eased, and my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I have greater confidence that it is on a sustainable path to 2 percent. At our meeting earlier this month, we reduced the level of policy restraint by lowering the target range of the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point. That decision reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in an environment of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to our objective.
Biden, Harris Release Statements Strongly Backing Israeli Killing of Nasrallah - On Saturday, both President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris released statements strongly backing the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, which was carried out using US-provided 2,000-pound bombs. President Biden said in a statement that Nasrallah’s death was “a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians.” The president said the US “fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups.”Biden said that he ordered Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to send additional military assets to the region. “I directed my Secretary of Defense to further enhance the defense posture of US military forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression and reduce the risk of a broader regional war,” he said. Biden claimed that he seeks de-escalation in the region, but his administration has continued to provide military aid and other types of support for Israel since it began its dramatic escalation in Lebanon. Harris, the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, released a similar statement, saying that “Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of justice.” The vice president said she has an “unwavering commitment to the security of Israel.” “I will always support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis,” Harris added. Harris also claimed that the administration was working for a diplomatic solution. But the day before Nasrallah was killed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal, and Israel saidit secured $8.7 billion in new military aid from the US. An Israeli official told ABC News that Israel decided to kill Nasrallah because he wouldn’t separate the situation at the Israel-Lebanon border from Gaza. Hezbollah had been clear that it would stop its attacks on northern Israel if there was a ceasefire in Gaza. The Israeli airstrikes that killed Nasrallah leveled multiple residential buildings in Beirut. The attack also killed Abbas Nilforoushan, a senior commander from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Tehran is vowing his death will not go “unanswered.” The killing of Nasrallah and other Israeli escalations in Lebanon could lead to direct US intervention since the US has vowed it would defend Israel if it faces a large-scale attack from Iran. US troops in Iraq and Syria could also come under attack from local Shia militias in response to US support for the killing of Nasrallah and theslaughtering of civilians in Lebanon.
US Bolsters Forces in Middle East, Issues Warning to Iran - The Pentagon on Sunday announced steps to bolster its forces in the Middle East amid Israel’s non-stop bombardment of Lebanon.Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the US will reinforce its “air-support capabilities” in the coming days and said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “increased the readiness of additional US forces to deploy, elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies.”Ryder said Austin also ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group to stay in the region. The USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group / Marine Expeditionary Unit will also continue to operate in the Eastern Mediterranean.Ryder also issued a warning to Iran in the statement. “Secretary Austin stressed that the United States is determined to prevent Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict,” he said. “Secretary Austin made clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people,” Ryder added.The US has been vowing to defend Israel from any potential Iranian attack, and the Pentagon said last week that was one purpose of maintaining an increased force posture in the region.“The support that you’re seeing when it comes to US forces in the region is for our own force protection and should we need to come to the defense of Israel, like we saw from that large-scale attack from Iran,” said Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh.Singh was referencing when the US directly intervened to defend Israel from Iranian missiles and drones in April, an attack provoked by the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.Iran is vowing it will respond to the Israeli killing of Abbas Nilforoushan, a senior commander from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who was killed alongside Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.The Israeli killing of Nasrallah and the slaughter of civilians in Lebanon could provoke attacks on US forces in the region since Israel carried out the escalations with full-throated US support. Austin and other US officials claim they seek de-escalation, but the US military aid to Israel continues to flow.
US Sending a 'Few Thousand' Troops to Middle East To Defend Israel - The Pentagon said Monday that the US is sending a “few thousand” additional troops to the Middle East to bolster security and prepare to defend Israel if needed, The Associated Press has reported.The deployment will include squadrons of F-15, F-16, F-22, and A-10 fighter jets and the personnel needed to support them. The squadrons were initially set to deploy to the Middle East so that other fighter jets could rotate out, but now they will all stay to increase US air power. The day before the announcement, President Biden was asked if he would be sending more troops to the Middle East and replied, “No.” The deployment comes after the Israeli killing of Hassan Nasrallah and the Israeli slaughter of hundreds of Lebanese civilians since Israel dramatically escalated its bombing campaign in Lebanon last week. The US support for Israel’s attacks on Lebanon could provoke attacks on US forces in the region, or the US could directly intervene to defend Israel.Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the deployment is for “the protection of US forces,” not to assist in evacuations. Last week, Singh said the US was bolstering its forces in the region “should we need to come to the defense of Israel.”On Sunday, the Pentagon announced Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered an aircraft carrier strike group and an amphibious assault group to stay in the region. The Pentagon also issued a warning to Iran on Sunday, saying Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “made clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people.”
U.S. deploys additional troops to Middle East amid tensions -- The U.S. is sending an “additional few thousand” troops to the Middle East amid roiling tensions over Israel’s deadly strikes on Lebanon that killed top Hezbollah leaders last week, according to Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh. Singh said Monday that an unspecified number of troops have been put on prepare to deploy orders. “Secretary Austin increased the readiness of additional US forces to deploy, elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies,” she told reporters. She would not reveal specifics due to operational security reasons, but she noted the forces “cover a wide range of capabilities and missions.” Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon over the last week killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as at least six other top officials in the Iran-backed militant group and more than 1,000 civilians. The United States has said justice was served to Nasrallah but worries the death, in addition to ongoing civilian casualties, will spark a wider regional conflict. The Pentagon on Sunday announced that it would “adjust our force posture based on the evolving security situation,” with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin directing the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to remain in the Middle East, while the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG/MEU) will stay put in the Eastern Mediterranean. Austin and defense leaders “remain focused on the protection of U.S. citizens and forces in the region, the defense of Israel, and the de-escalation of the situation through deterrence and diplomacy,” Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement. “Secretary Austin made clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people,” he added. The statement also said the Defense Department would “further reinforce” the U.S. military’s air defense support in the region in the coming days, to include F-22, F-15E and F-16 fighter jets and A-10 aircraft. Singh said the additional air support are units previously scheduled to deploy, and they will join units already there instead of replacing them, as was first planned. The reinforcements include “a certain number of units already deployed to the Middle East region that will be extended, and the forces due to rotate into theater to replace them will now instead augment the in-place forces already in the region.” She added “an additional few thousand” service members will be in the region.
Israeli Troops Enter Southern Lebanon, Assure US of 'Limited' Invasion - US officials say that Israel has informed them today that they are planning an “imminent ground invasion” of their neighbor to the north. They further have begun the operation, and are promising the US that the invasion is to be “limited.”Details are still scant on the invasion, but there are already reports earlier today that Israeli special forces have begun military operations into southern Lebanon. The operations are being presented by Israeli officials as targeting Hezbollah “infrastructure.”Exactly what infrastructure means is never clear in Israeli statements, and other reports suggest that the current raids are primarily aimed at intelligence gathering ahead of broader operations by Israeli forces into the entire country. They also appear to be laying the groundwork for a bigger incursion yet to come. While the ground operations are new, Israel continued carrying out airstrikes against southern Lebanon as they have been on a near daily basis for months. Indeed, the airstrikes have escalated dramatically in the past week, with many hundreds of people killed across Lebanon, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Today, it is being reported that one of the airstrikes on al-Buss refugee camp killed Hamas member Fatah Sharif. Sharif was reported to also be working for the UN. US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller says that the US supports a diplomatic deal between Israel and Hezbollah, but did not appear to oppose the invasion, saying they believe that the military pressure could at times “enable diplomacy.” The international community, including the US, has been scrambling for months to try to secure a ceasefire which would prevent Israel from invading Lebanon. Hezbollah has tied the ceasefire closely to reaching a similar deal in Israel’s ongoing invasion of the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials seem to have taken little out of the pushes for a deal, and have long talked up the need for a ground invasion. It is not clear how broad an Israeli invasion of Lebanon would be, but most countries have been strongly urging their citizens to flee the country as soon as possible to avoid casualties. Large numbers of Lebanese have also fled into Syria to avoid the invasion.
The US Privately Encouraged Israel To Escalate in Lebanon - POLITICO reported on Monday that despite the Biden administration’s public calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, White House officials privately told Israeli officials that they agreed with the plan to escalate in Lebanon and shift its focus to the north. The report, which cited US and Israeli officials, said the message was delivered by Brett McGurk, the top Middle East official on the National Security Council, and Amos Hochstein, an Israeli-born veteran of the Israeli Defense Forces who works as a special advisor for President Biden. The report said that Israel told the US of its plans to focus on Lebanon but didn’t offer much detail, and McGurk and Hochstein “relayed to their Israeli counterparts that — while they still urged a cautious approach — the timing was likely opportune for such a move, especially after Hezbollah had been significantly degraded in the months prior.” The report contradicts public claims from US officials that they have been seeking a ceasefire in Lebanon and are working toward a diplomatic solution. But US actions have shown they do support Israel’s actions in Lebanon, as the Biden administration gave Israel $8.7 billion in new military aid amid the dramatic escalation.The POLITICO report said that McGurk, Hochstein, and other top US officials are describing the war in Lebanon “as a history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.”Over 1,000 people, including many civilians, have been slaughtered by Israeli forces in Lebanon since September 23. Airstrikes have been non-stop, and the Israeli military has said it’s started a ground invasion of Lebanon.
'So Sick': War Profiteer Stocks Jump as Iran Strikes Israel --Mirroring Wall Street's response to Israel launching its assault on theGaza Strip nearly a year ago, stocks of companies that make money off of war soared on Tuesday after Israelis initiated a ground invasion into Lebanon and Iran sent scores of ballistic missiles toward Tel Aviv and other targets. Zeteo's Prem Thakker highlighted the performance by three key American multinationals—Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX, formerly known as Raytheon—and noted that it came "while the wider market is down today."CNBC similarly attributed the market's Tuesday trends to "growing tensions in the Middle East" and reported that another U.S. defense contractor, L3Harris Technologies, "advanced 3%."Responding to Thakker's observations on social media, U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) called the trends "so sick.""Remember that members of Congress are permitted to own stock in war manufacturing, so when they vote to send more bombs or send our loved ones to war, they profit personally," added Tlaib, a critic of war in general but especially Israel's recent violence.Tlaib, the only Palestinian American in Congress, has condemned the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza—launched after a Hamas-led attack on Israel—as genocidal. Israel faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice.As of Tuesday, officials in Hamas-governed Gaza put the death toll at 41,638, with 96,460 people injured, though thousands remain missing in the remnants of devastated civilian infrastructure across the coastal enclave.In addition to bombing and starving Palestinians in Gaza, Israel—which receives billions of dollars in annual U.S. military support—has stokedfears of a wider regional war with a July assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital of Tehran and its recent escalation in Lebanon, home to the political and paramilitary group Hezbollah.Meanwhile, there has been growing criticism of seemingly unconditional U.S. support for Israel's right-wing government in Congress. However, as Sludge pointed out Tuesday, some lawmakers are set to benefit from companies that are doing well thanks to the bloodshed and instability in the Middle East.Sludge cited recent reporting by co-founder David Moore, who detailed how "at least 50 members of Congress or other members of their households hold stock in defense contractors, companies that receive hundreds of billions of dollars annually from congressionally crafted Pentagon appropriations legislation.""The total value of the federal lawmakers, defense contractors stock holdings could be as much as $10.9 million," wrote Moore, who analyzed 2023 financial disclosures and stock trades. "The most widely held defense contractor stock among senators and representatives is Honeywell, an American company that makes sensors and guiding devices that are being used by the Israeli military in its airstrikes in Gaza."Tlaib has introduced the Stop Politicians Profiting from War Act, which would ban members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from trading defense stocks or having financial interests in companies that do business with the U.S. Department of Defense.
Sen. Graham Calls for US To Strike Iranian Oil Sites in Response to Attack on Israel - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Tuesday called for the US to coordinate with Israel on strikes against Iranian oil refineries in response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel, which came in retaliation for Israeli escalations in the region.“This missile attack against Israel should be the breaking point, and I would urge the Biden Administration to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel, starting with Iran’s ability to refine oil,” Graham said in a statement.“These oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror,” he added.The hawkish senator also said that he spoke with former President Donald Trump about the Iranian attack. “I spoke with President Trump earlier today, and he is determined and resolved to protect Israel from the threats of terrorism emanating from Iran. I can assure you Iran attacks Israel at their own peril,” Graham wrote on X. Other Republicans in Congress expressed support for Israeli action against Iran, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). “I urge the reimposition of a maximum pressure campaign against Iran and fully support Israel’s right to respond disproportionately to stop this threat. The United States will continue to stand with Israel,” Rubio said. The US intervened directly to help Israel intercept Iranian missiles, and the Biden administration says it’s coordinating with Israel on a response. “There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the missile attack was a response to the killings of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander who was killed alongside Nasrallah.
Republicans press Joe Biden to be tougher on Iran after missile attack - Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are calling on President Biden to get tougher on Iran in the wake of Tuesday’s missile attack on Israel, urging the administration to adopt a series of specific measures designed to cripple the military powers of Tehran and its proxies. In a series of speeches, statements and social media posts, the top Republicans in both chambers pressed the president to adopt a combination of new penalties on Iran — both financial and military — while escalating the military aid Washington provides to Israel. The GOP leaders suggested the absence of those measures had emboldened Tehran to launch Tuesday’s attack. “The Biden Administration has repeatedly threatened Iran with ‘severe consequences’ for its campaign of terror against Israel and the United States, but failed to impose them,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a statement. “It has pledged ‘ironclad’ support for Israel, only to delay and withhold the security assistance that would give this pledge any weight.” “It is not enough to issue statements.” Behind Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), House GOP leaders offered a similar assessment, urging the Biden administration to exert “maximum pressure” on Tehran, to include the strict enforcement of existing sanctions, which Republicans accuse Biden of failing to do. “It’s hypocritical for the administration to express support for Israel’s defense while continuing to appease the Iranian regime with billions — or hundreds of billions of dollars, actually — in sanctions relief,” Johnson said Tuesday during an economic speech at the New York Stock Exchange. “We need a maximum pressure campaign on Iran and its terror proxies,” he continued. “President Biden needs to make clear that there will be decisive economic and potential military ramifications for these actions.” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, was more specific, calling on the administration to send more powerful weapons to Israel and adopt his legislation, the 21st Century Peace Through Strength Act, which applies new financial and travel restrictions on anyone associated with Iran’s missile programs. “We need to expedite arms transfers to Israel that this administration has delayed for months, including 2,000-pound bombs, to ensure Israel has all the tools to deter these threats,” McCaul said. “The administration also needs to utilize all the sanctions authorities we have … to cut off resources to Iran and its proxies.” Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, the latest development in the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran said the effort — which included at least 180 missiles — was in response to the Israeli attack that killed the leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military. Last week, an Israeli attack killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said Israel “was able to intercept the majority of the incoming missiles” on Tuesday, adding “that there was minimal damage on the ground.”
Sullivan: US Will Ensure Iran Faces 'Severe Consequences' for Attacking Israel -US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that the US would work with Israel to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” for launching a missile attack on Israel, which came in response to recent Israeli escalations. “There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House.President Biden said the US was in “active discussions” with Israel on what the response would be. “The United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel,” he said.Media reports say Iran fired at least 180 missiles at Israel. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attack was launched in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander who was killed alongside Nasrallah.The IRCG has claimed that 90% of the missiles hit their targets, while Israel claimed most were intercepted. Videos have surfaced that show Iranian missiles making an impact on Israeli military sites. So far, there’s beenno word on Israeli deaths, but a Palestinian in the Israeli-occupied West Bank was killed when shrapnel from an intercepted missile fell on Jericho.The US said that it helped Israel intercept some of the Iranian missiles and portrayed the defense as a success. Sullivan said the Iranian attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”“We are proud of the actions that we’ve taken alongside Israel to protect and defend Israel,” Sullivan added. The attack came a day after the Pentagon announced that it was sending a “few thousand” troops to the Middle East to prepare for the defense of Israel if needed.The Iranian attack came after over a week of a dramatic escalation in Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon, which has killed over 1,000 people since September 23, including many civilians. Despite claims from Biden administration officials that they wanted to see a ceasefire in Lebanon, the US has backed Israel’s escalations and now is prepared to defend it from any consequences it may face.Iran has signaled that it’s done attacking Israel but warned there would be a “crushing response” if Israel hits back. Israeli officials have made clear that they plan to respond.“There will be consequences,” said Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari. “Our defensive and offensive capabilities are at the highest levels of readiness. Our operational plans are ready. We will respond wherever, whenever, and however we choose, in accordance with the directive of the government of Israel.”Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran will “pay” for the attack. “This evening, Iran made a big mistake — and it will pay for it,” he said at a security cabinet meeting. “The regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies.
VP Debate: Preemptive strike on Iran now? | Responsible Statecraft -- After nearly 12 months of war in Gaza, more than 40,000 dead – mostly civilians – a spiraling humanitarian crisis, hostages dead or still in captivity, Hezbollah and Hamas leaders assassinated, a new war in Lebanon where 1 million people may be displaced, charges of genocide, and a ceasefire endlessly elusive, the big foreign policy question of the vice presidential debate? Would you support a preemptive strike against Iran? Wait. What? If the CBS moderators wanted to avoid talking frankly about the aforementioned issues which might mean — here it comes — raising criticism of Israel, this was the way to do it. Make it all about Iran. Question from Margaret Brennan: “Thanks to joint U.S. and Israeli defensive action, President Biden has deployed more than 40,000 U.S. military personnel and assets to that region over the past year to try to prevent a regional war. Iran is weakened, but the U.S. still considers it the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world, and it has drastically reduced the time it would take to develop a nuclear weapon. It is down now to one or two weeks time. Governor Walz, if you are the final voice in the Situation Room, would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran? You have two minutes. Thank you." Not surprisingly what proceeds from both Democratic candidate Gov. Tim Walz and Republican candidate Sen. J.D. Vance is a brief series of parry and ripostes over who was worse on the Iran issue, a comfort zone during presidential cycles because frankly, no one likes Iran (especially Israel), and everyone would prefer sparring over hypotheticals rather than get their hands dirty with real third rail issues. Walz comes out a bit weakly on the first question: “Israel's ability to be able to defend itself is absolutely fundamental. Getting its hostages back, fundamental, and ending the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. But the expansion of Israel (I think he meant Iran here) and its proxies is an absolute fundamental necessity for the United States to have the steady leadership there. You saw that experience today, where, along with our Israeli partners and our coalition, (we're) able to stop the incoming attack. But what's fundamental here is that steady leadership is going to matter.” At that point he went into a lengthier character assessment of Trump as a fickle friend of flattering dictators. “Both of his secretaries of defense and national security advisors said he should be nowhere near the White House.” Then he ends, remembering there was a question: “And as the vice president said today is we will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences.” Vance’s turn: "We have to remember that as much as governor Walz just accused Donald Trump of being an agent of chaos, Donald Trump actually delivered stability in the world, and he did it by establishing effective deterrence. People were afraid of stepping out of line. Iran, which launched this attack, has received over $100 billion in unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration. What do they use that money for? They use it to buy weapons that they're now launching against our allies and, God forbid, potentially launching against the United States as well. Donald Trump recognized that for people to fear the United States, you needed peace through strength. …. Now you asked about a preemptive strike, Margaret, and I want to answer the question. Look, it is up to Israel, what they think they need to do to keep their country safe, and we should support our allies wherever they are when they're fighting the bad guys. I think that's the right approach to take with the Israel question." Walz responds, rightly, that the Obama administration had pulled together a coalition of nations to restrain Iran's nuclear program within the framework of the JCPOA and Trump tore it up once in office. "Now Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon than they were before because of Donald Trump's fickle leadership," he charged.Moderator Brennan asks Vance if Trump made a mistake when he left the deal. Vance avoids the question (and doesn't mention that Biden had three years to get back into it) and just says, “diplomacy is not a dirty word.” He instead puts the onus on the breakdown in wider Middle East security on the Biden-Harris administration. “Iran is as close to a nuclear weapon today as they have ever been. And Governor waltz, you blame Donald Trump. Who has been the vice president for the last three and a half years? And the answer is, your running mate, not mine. Donald Trump consistently made the world more secure. Now we talk about the sequence of events that led us to where we are right now, and you can't ignore October the 7th, which I appreciate Governor Walz bringing up. But when did Iran and Hamas and their proxies attack Israel? It was during the administration of Kamala Harris.” Interestingly, Vance does not lean back into the Iran preemptive strike question or attempt to outgun his candidate on the issue of Iran's defeat, much like his Republican colleagues like Nikki Haley surely would have done in his place. Instead he raises the issue of major conflicts writ large as a matter of national security for Americans. “Ask yourself at home, when was the last time — I'm 40 years old — when was the last time that an American president didn't have a major conflict breakout? The only answer is during the four years that Donald Trump was president.”
Biden escalates toward disastrous war against Iran - The United States and Israel stand on the verge of a direct attack on Iran, with the most far-reaching and catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and the whole world. Using Iran’s attack on Israeli military infrastructure Tuesday as a pretext, the White House has effectively given Israel carte blanche to carry out an illegal attack against the second most populous country in the region (after Egypt). “We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us [referring to the G7 nations] agree that they have a right to respond,” Biden said Wednesday. Reuters commented in a news report, “[T]he US is not pressing Israel to refrain from retaliation.” One year after the start of the Gaza genocide, it has become clear that Israel seized upon the events of October 7 to implement long-held plans to ethnically cleanse and annex all Palestinian territories. This is part of a regional war throughout the Middle East to conquer what the Zionist state claims to be its biblical borders. For the United States, it has been a means to cement imperialist control over the oil-rich Middle East region and to establish the Middle East and Central Asia as a firm base for US military operations in order to press ahead with its confrontation with Russia and China. It is high time to put an end to the myth that Israel is an actor independent of the United States. Israel’s primary function is to serve as an attack dog and instrument of the interests of American imperialism throughout the entire region. As always, neither the US government nor the media is making any effort to inform the public about the monumental consequences of the plans now underway. During the first and only vice presidential debate between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance on Tuesday, moderator Margaret Brennan asked both candidates, “Would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran?” Walz said, “We will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences.” Vance added, “Look, it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe. And we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.” After the candidates delivered their one-line responses, no one bothered to note, first, that such an attack would be completely illegal, and second, that it would have monumental and historic consequences for the entire world. The developing US-Israeli war with Iran threatens to engulf the entire region in flames. This week, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan warned, “The Israeli government is acting in the illusion of a promised land, with religious fanaticism. After Palestine and Lebanon, our homeland will be the place they look at. Everything is aimed at this now.” Erdogan’s statement is an indication of the extent to which the actions of Israel and the US are provoking alarm throughout the region and the world. There is a growing sense that the United States and its Israeli attack dog are out of control. The US media is presenting a looming Israeli attack on Iran as a response to the strikes launched by Iran on Israeli military bases on Tuesday. In fact, Iran’s attack was a response to a series of US-Israeli bombings, murders and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of people throughout the Middle East. Iran’s missile strike on Israel took place just one day after Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, following days of escalating air bombardments that left thousands of people dead. On Saturday, Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, using 85 US-supplied 2,000-pound bombs that completely leveled high-rise residential buildings, killing hundreds. It follows Israel’s assassination of the head of Hamas’s political wing in Tehran, who was an official guest of the Iranian government. The Iranian regime has repeatedly adopted an attitude of restraint to these US and Israeli provocations. There was no significant response to the murder of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and Iran’s regime has tolerated repeated assassinations of scientists, and most recently, an Israeli bombing in Tehran itself. The president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking for the Iranian ruling class, has repeatedly adopted the most conciliatory attitude toward the imperialist powers. These efforts at conciliation have now failed, and the Iranian regime is coming under increasing pressure to resist and retaliate. The leaders of American imperialism believe that through launching a bloodbath of violence in the Middle East and blowing past all “red lines,” they will be able to undo the consequences of the debacles suffered by US imperialism over decades. They are deluding themselves. What leads them to believe that war with Iran, a country of 90 million people and a highly sophisticated society, will have any better outcome than the invasion of Iraq?
Biden Says US and Israel Are Discussing Strikes on Iranian Oil Facilities - President Biden said Thursday that the US and Israel were discussing the possibility of striking Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel on Tuesday, which was a response to multiple Israeli escalations.When asked by a reporter if he would support Israeli strikes on Iranian oil sites, Biden said, “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little… anyway.” The comments sent oil prices spiking.Striking Iran’s oil facilities is supported by the ultra-hawkish Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “These oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror,” Graham said in a statement on Tuesday.On Wednesday, Biden said he wouldn’t support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but the US is vowing to ensure Tehran faces “severe consequences.” Israeli officials have told Axios that they plan to hit Iran hard and believe their attack could lead to a major regional war.Options being considered besides striking oil facilities are targeting Iran’s air defenses or carrying out a targeted assassination inside Iran. Israeli officials have said that if Iran responds to their next attack, then any option is on the table, including strikes on nuclear facilities.Israel is coordinating its plans to attack Iran with the US because it wants the US to come to its defense in the event of another significant Iranian attack. If Israel wants to carry out a significant strike inside Iran, it may also need support from the US military.The president previously said he wouldn't support strikes on nuclear facilities
Yemen's Houthis Shoot Down Another US MQ-9 Reaper Drone - The Houthis said Monday that their forces shot down another US MQ-9 Reaper drone while it was operating over Yemen. “The air defenses of the Yemeni Armed Forces shot down an American MQ-9 aircraft while it was carrying out hostile missions in the airspace of Saada Governorate,” said Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea. Sarea said the downing marked the 11th US MQ-9 drone that the Houthis have shot down over Yemen since last year. US officials confirmed to CNN that the drone was shot down. The Pentagon has previously said the number of MQ-9s the Houthis say they downed is not accurate, but the US has refused to say how many it has lost. MQ-9 Reaper drones are worth about $30 million and can be armed with powerful Hellfire missiles.The Houthis downed the drone after Israel launched airstrikes against the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, damaging infrastructure and killing about five people. Israel said the strikes were a response to the Houthis firing ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv.“The Israeli enemy, with American support, launched 17 airstrikes on various civilian facilities in Hodeidah, including the port and the power station, which led to the martyrdom of five citizens and the injury of 57 as a final tally,” Sarea said on Monday.He added that the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, would escalate their attacks on Israel. “The crime of aggression against Hodeidah will be met with a military escalation against this criminal enemy in the coming period,” he said.The US has been bombing the Houthis since January, a bombing campaign that has failed to stop Houthi attacks on shipping, which began in response to the Israeli onslaught in Gaza. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have been clear they would stop the attacks if there were a ceasefire in Gaza.
American Healthcare Workers Who Volunteered in Gaza Say Over 118,000 Have Been Killed -- Ninety-nine American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza over the past year published an open letter to President Biden and Vice President Harris on Thursday that detailed the horrors they witnessed and called for an end to US military support for Israel.The healthcare workers said they believe the true death toll in Gaza is much higher than what Gaza’s Health Ministry is reporting, estimating it to be over 118,908.“This letter and the appendix show probative evidence that the human toll in Gaza since October is far higher than is understood in the United States,” the letter reads. “It is likely that the death toll from this conflict is already greater than 118,908, an astonishing 5.4% of Gaza’s population.”The latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry put the number of Palestinians killed by Israel in Gaza since October 7, 2023, at 41,788. The ministry’s figures only count the bodies that are brought to hospitals and morgues and don’t account for people missing and presumed dead under the rubble.The American healthcare workers said that everyone in Gaza is either sick, injured, or both. “With only marginal exceptions, everyone in Gaza is sick, injured, or both. This includes every national aid worker, every international volunteer, and probably every Israeli hostage: every man, woman, and child,” the letter saysThey said that almost every child under five they encountered “had both a cough and watery diarrhea.” Each signatory to the letter saw wounds in children that showed they were being purposefully targeted by the Israeli military.“Specifically, every one of us who worked in an emergency, intensive care, or surgical setting treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head or chest on a regular or even a daily basis,” the letter reads. “It is impossible that such widespread shooting of young children throughout Gaza, sustained over the course of an entire year is accidental or unknown to the highest Israeli civilian and military authorities.”Dr. Mark Perlmutter, an orthopedic and hand surgeon, was quoted in the letter saying, “Gaza was the first time I held a baby’s brains in my hand. The first of many.”The healthcare workers said newborn babies were dying due to the conditions caused by the Israeli siege and attacks on hospitals. Asma Taha, a pediatric nurse practitioner, said, “Every day, I saw babies die. They had been born healthy. Their mothers were so malnourished that they could not breastfeed, and we lacked formula or clean water to feed them, so they starved.”
Rapper Macklemore dropped from festival lineup for “anti-American” opposition to Gaza genocide - Last week, the organizers of the Neon City Festival dropped American rapper Macklemore from the event’s concert lineup. Macklemore was among the five headliners of the festival, which is scheduled to take place November 22-24 in Las Vegas. It is unclear whether or by whom he will be replaced. In a display of cowardice and dishonesty, the festival organizers cited “unforeseen circumstances” to explain their decision. The real reason was the organizers’ objection to the blunt, profane condemnation of the US government that Macklemore had voiced three days earlier at the Palestine Will Live Forever festival in Seattle. During that event, Macklemore performed his new song Hind’s Hall 2. Like its predecessor, the song forcefully protests the genocide that Israel is perpetrating against the Palestinians. In it, Macklemore explicitly decries the White House’s complicity in this historic crime. Giving voice to the justified anger of millions worldwide, the rapper hurled an expletive at “America” during his performance, and the crowd responded with cheers. The Palestine Will Live Forever festival was a benefit for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA). With consummate cruelty, the US government cut off its funding for this agency earlier this year. This is the government to which the organizers of the Neon City Festival would have musicians pledge their loyalty. Hind’s Hall 2 includes refreshingly direct and pointed commentary. One couplet seems to foreshadow Macklemore’s recent outburst: “PC [i.e., politically correct] for a minute, I was trying to be a bridge. / But there’ll never be freedom by pleading with Zionists.” The rapper explicitly names Israel’s abettors, warning, “We know who you serve at the White House.” He also speaks directly to the Democratic candidate in the upcoming presidential election. “Hey, Kamala, I don’t know if you’re listening, / But stop sending money and weapons, or you ain’t winning Michigan. / We uncommitted, and hell no, we ain’t switching positions.” On the day after the organizers abruptly removed him from the Neon City Festival bill, Macklemore addressed the incident in a long Instagram post. The forthright, principled and courageous statement deserves to be quoted at length. “My thoughts and feelings are not always expressed perfectly or politely,” the rapper wrote. “Sometimes I slip up and get caught in the moment.” He cited his expletive at the Seattle concert as one such example but insisted that his aim is “to bring people together and never to create more division…. “I wish I had been in a better place with my grief and anger. But the truth is I’m not OK. I haven’t been,” Macklemore continued. “The last 11.5 months of watching genocide unfold in front of us has been excruciating on a spiritual, emotional and human level. I have been in utter disbelief with how our government is showing up at this moment in history. I don’t think I’m alone.”
US Not Withdrawing from Iraq - The US and Iraq on Friday announced a plan that will end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq, but US troops will remain in the country under a “bilateral security partnership.”Iraqi security officials told The Associated Press that US troops would be withdrawing from a base at the Baghdad International Airport and the Ain al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq. US officials refuse to say how many of the 2,500 US troops in Iraq, if any, will be leaving the country.“The US is not withdrawing from Iraq,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Friday. She said the US would be changing its “footprint” in the country but wouldn’t share any details.“This is a step in our relationship and a progress towards a bilateral security agreement, and we’ll have more details to share when we’re ready,” Singh said.Under the plan, the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq will officially end its mission by September 2025, but it will continue to operate in Syria and be supported from Iraqi territory until September 2026. The US has about 900 troops occupying eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing the US to control about one-third of Syria’s territory.The plan is unlikely to placate the many elements in Iraq who want the US to leave, and it could lead to more rocket and drone attacks on US bases. Recent Israeli escalations in Lebanon could also provoke attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria.Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani began calling for an end to the US military presence following an escalation between the US and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that are part of Iraq’s security forces.The US launched heavy airstrikes against the PMF over rocket and drone attacks on US bases, which began in response to US support for Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Hundreds of attacks targeted US bases before a drone hit Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan on the Syrian border, in January, killing three US Army Reserve soldiers.The Iraqi government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar.
US Reports Killing at Least 37 in Recent Syria Strikes - US Central Command (CENTCOM) has reported killing at least 37 in substantial airstrikes against different militant factions in Syria. The strikes were reportedly on September 16, and last Tuesday, September 24. The first strike was carried out against an ISIS training camp somewhere in central Syria. That strike reportedly killed 28 people and was meant to disrupt the ability of ISIS to operate in the region. Four unnamed ISIS leaders were reported to be among the slain. Tuesday’s strike was in northwestern Syria, where Islamist factions continue to hold substantial sway. This strike killed at least nine, including Hurras al-Din leader Marwan Bassam Abd al-Rauf. Hurras al-Din is an al-Qaeda-affiliated faction.While northwest Syria comes under intermittent strikes from the US and assorted regional powers, the region is dominated by Sunni Islamist factions surviving from earlier stages of the Syrian Civil War. It is noteworthy that these groups organized celebrations over the weekend to cheer the recent Israeli assassination of Shi’ite Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.What the US hopes to accomplish with its intermittent attacks across Syria is not clear. Approximately 900 US troops are still stationed in that country, despite the opposition of the Syrian government, with no timetable for their exit.Last month, US Central Command carried out yet another strike in Syria against Hurras al-Din. The senior figure of Abu Abd’ al-Rahman al-Makki was reportedly among those killed in that strike.US troops are vulnerable, stationed in small groups in remote parts of Syria. Reports are that earlier today the US base at the Conoco gas field in Deir Ezzor came under fire from rockets and attack drones. While the extent of the attack isn’t clear, casualties have been reported.These new attacks come as tensions soar across the region, as Israeli continues attacks on Lebanon and Syria, and in its war on the Gaza Strip. Within this powder-keg, the US is foolhardy to further insinuate itself by striking targets in Syria.
US to Sell 720 Stinger Missiles to Egypt for $740M -The US State Department has approved the possible sale of 720 Stinger missiles to Egypt for an estimated cost of $740 million.This potential deal includes 720 anti-aircraft Stinger FIM-92 missiles, spare parts, testing equipment, contractor engineering, as well as logistical and program support.The Stinger FIM-92, designed by Raytheon for the US military, is a surface-to-air weapon for targeting low-flying aircraft.Because of its compact and light features, weighing about 10 kilograms (22 pounds), it can be carried by a single soldier.An incorporated infrared guidance system allows the missile to track and hit targets up to 4.8 kilometers (3 miles) away and as high as 3.8 kilometers (2.3 miles) in the air.The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the Stinger sale would “improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political stability and economic growth in the Middle East.”The announcement comes a few weeks after the US released $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waived some human rights conditions as part of the aid, stressing Egypt’s importance in promoting regional peace.Since the start of the conflict in Gaza in October 2023, Cairo has played a key role as a mediator in the negotiations to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
The Middle East Is Always At War Because The West Keeps Pushing It That Way --Caitlin Johnstone -- I hate when people say “Bah the middle east has always been at war, it’s just how they are.” No you asshole, it’s been at war because of western interventionism and Israel. Sure it was at war before Israel, but so was the entirety of Europe throughout its entire history. The only reason the rest of the world got to cool down a bit after the world wars while the middle east remained embroiled in violence and chaos was because the west inserted this alien splinter of settler-colonialism into the region while constantly deliberately fomenting war and unrest.There’s nothing freakish or unusual about the middle east or Islam that makes its people violent, it just happens to be where a lot of the oil is, so the west keeps poking and prodding it to ensure that it’s always divided against itself and dominated by western-friendly dictators. That’s all we’ve been looking at there.My favorite Israel apologist line is “Well what did they THINK was gonna happen when they attacked Israel?” As though going “Yeah obviously Israel is gonna butcher a bunch of civilians if you try to resist it, duh” is a complete defense of Israel’s criminality.It’s like, yes, Israel commits horrifying massacres against populations which oppose it whenever it can find an excuse to do so. That is the problem that people are trying to point to. Going “Of course Israel killed thousands of kids, it’s Israel!” is supportive of MY position, not yours.Funny how hard western narrative managers are thumping this “Hezbollah is a terrorist organization” doctrine, considering the empire just spent years calling Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria “moderate rebels” and is currently arming Nazi militias in Ukraine.Imagine being such a groveling, bootlicking cuck that you’d call an organization a “terrorist” group just because your government told you that’s what you should call them.
These Are US Wars. These Are Biden's Wars. -Caitlin Johnstone -- Politico has an obnoxiously propagandistic and deceitful article out titled “Biden approaches limits of influence on Israel,” yet another in the mountain of imperial media spin pieces that have come out over the last year trying to wash this administration’s hands of its criminality by portraying it as an innocent, passive witness to the US-backed atrocities and military brinkmanship we’ve been seeing in the middle east. Politico’s Jonathan Lemire and Robbie Gramer report, completely falsely, that Biden may be unable to stop “what his administration has spent a year trying to prevent: regional war.” They falsely assert that the Biden administration now has “far less say in shaping events,” because “Netanyahu and his government have consistently ignored American counsel as to how to prosecute the war in Gaza.” These are just lies. They’re lying. As many have correctly pointed out over the last year, US presidents absolutely do have the power to stop Israeli warmongering dead in its tracks by threatening to terminate the military support Israel depends on, and past presidents have exercised this power. An Israeli air force official admitted last month that the atrocities we’ve been seeing in Gaza for an entire year could only be sustained for a few months without US support. An arms embargo or the threat thereof would have stopped this long ago. Israeli warmongering isn’t getting worse and worse because the Biden administration can’t control Israel, it’s getting worse and worse because the Biden administration knowingly refuses to make use of the control that it has. We saw this illustrated in a recent exchange at a State Department press conference. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller was asked by reporter Tom Bateman about accusations that “you have simply not used leverage to get what you want,” citing Ronald Reagan’s well-documented phone call to the Israeli prime minister during the invasion of Lebanon in 1982 — which stopped the assault instantly. “So there have been a number of times over the course of this conflict where direct US intervention with the government of Israel has led them to take steps that they were not previously doing — to take steps when it comes to humanitarian access, to take steps with regards to the shape of their military operations,” Miller replied, adding, “I’m not going to speak to all those publicly. Some of them have been reported over time.”This is actually a rather damning admission by Miller, because it shows that Biden has been exerting some influence over Israel, which means what we’ve been seeing from Israel is more or less what the Biden administration wants to happen. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t be happening.The other day Miller let the words “We’ve never wanted to see a diplomatic resolution with Hamas” escape from his lips while dodging pointed questions from reporter Prem Thakker, a position which of course makes all this administration’s talk about ceasefire negotiations completely meaningless.Despite the nonstop churn of White House press releases disguised as news stories in the mainstream media about how “angry” and “frustrated” Biden is with Netanyahu and how powerless he is to divert Israel off the war path, this administration is just as responsible for these wars as Netanyahu himself. These are US wars. These are Biden’s wars.Another article from Politico titled “US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah” reports that White House officials Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk “told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the U.S. agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah,” supposedly “to convince the group to engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict.”Got that? This same outlet which told us the Biden administration supports Israel’s warmongering in Lebanon is simultaneously publishing articles about how powerless Biden is to rein in Israel’s warmongering. Absolutely pathetic. No matter how much you might despise the mainstream press, it’s not enough.
The Western Media Helped Create These Horrors In The Middle East - Caitlin Johnstone - The US and Iran are on the brink of war. Israel and the United States areplanning a major attack on Iran, which according to Biden himself could entail strikes on Iranian oil sites. Iran is now saying that its days of “individual self-restraint” are over, and it is prepared to go all-in if the US and Israel keep ramping up escalations. The IDF continues to slaughter civilians in Lebanon with US-backed airstrikes as news surfaces that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire with Israel shortly before Israel assassinated him. The US reportedly knew about the deal.And of course Israel is still killing dozens of civilians a day in its daily massacres in Gaza. Ninety-nine American healthcare workers who volunteered in the enclave have published an open letter to their president detailing the horrors that they have witnessed, and estimating the current death toll from this onslaught is over 118,908.And at this juncture in history, I think it would be good for us to give the western press their due credit for helping to take us here by manufacturing consent for the political environment in which such western-supported atrocities are possible.All the mass media personnel who’ve been lying and manipulating for Israel helped pave the way to this.All the pundits and reporters who’ve been assigning far more weight to the Israeli deaths on October 7 than to the vastly greater number of Arab deaths before and since.All the editors who’ve been running “Gaza child walks into bullet” passive-language headlines designed to mask Israel’s responsibility for the killings. Everyone who uncritically reported fake atrocity propaganda about beheaded babies and mass rapes as real news stories.Everyone who uncritically parrots e very claim made by the IDF and the Israeli government but refuses to report what Palestinians have been saying unless Israel confirms it.Everyone at the press galleries in Washington who fail to forcefully interrogate US officials for the lies and spin they’ve been spewing about Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. Everyone who publishes White House press releases disguised as news stories about how angry and upset Biden is about the Israeli war crimes he knowingly refuses to prevent. Everyone who reports on starvation and sickness in Gaza like it’s some kind of natural disaster and not the inevitable consequence of deliberate siege warfare by Israel. Everyone who treated Iranian missiles targeting Israeli military facilities without killing anybody as more horrific and significant than Israel’s daily massacres of civilians. Everyone who uncritically regurgitates the phrase “Hamas-run health ministry”. Everyone who uncritically calls Hezbollah a “terrorist organization”. All the high-profile opinion columnists who’ve been running nonstop apologia for Israel’s criminality and encouraging the west to support even further aggressiveness. Reporters who refer to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria as “Iran-backed” but never refers to the Israeli military as “US-backed”. Everyone who helps frame the Biden administration as a passive and reluctant witness to Israel’s mass atrocities instead of a willing and active participant. Everyone who called Israel’s invasion of Lebanon a “limited ground operation” after ridiculing Russia for calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation”. Everyone who framed the pager bombings and assassination strikes in Lebanon as heroic achievements of extraordinarily sophisticated intelligence when they’d be shrieking their lungs out if a nation like Iran or Russia did anything similar. Everyone who helps lend credence to the false narrative that opposition to Israeli murderousness is indicative of an epidemic of “antisemitism” in our society. All the mass media staff who helped manufacture public consent for the horrors we’ve been watching in the middle east are just as responsible for what happens there as the people who are physically inflicting the violence. They may as well have dropped the bombs and launched the missiles themselves. They may as well have pulled the triggers on the sniper rifles that shot all those Palestinian children in the head. They may as well have personally inserted those iron rods into the anuses of Palestinian prisoners. The propagandists of the western press are just as essential to maintaining the western-backed atrocities that Israel is committing as the Israeli military itself. No matter how much you despise these psychopathic manipulators, it’s less than they deserve.
We're The Fucking Terrorists - Caitlin Johnstone - Hezbollah is killing Israeli soldiers who are invading their country while Israeli soldiers are deliberately killing women and children and medical staff and journalists. Guess which side the west calls terrorists. In case you haven’t figured it out yet, “terrorist organization” is a completely arbitrary designation which is used as a tool of western narrative control to justify war and militarism. In effect it just means “disobedient population who need bombs dropped on them”.The open letter to President Biden from 99 US healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza contains a quote from Dr Mark Perlmutter, “Gaza was the first time I held a baby’s brains in my hand. The first of many.”You know what? We’re the fucking terrorists. We are. All of us who live in the western power alliance who haven’t stopped our governments from backing this mass atrocity. The word “terrorist” won’t have any meaning or relevance until it applies first and foremost to the giant globe-spanning power structure that is inflicting this nightmare upon our species.
Despite Putin’s nuclear warning, NATO escalates campaign to allow strikes deep inside Russia --After Russian President Vladimir Putin changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine so as to allow for Russian nuclear strikes in retaliation for NATO strikes on Russia launched from Ukraine, NATO officials have reiterated threats to launch long-range missile strikes at targets across Russia. They are making clear that NATO is determined to launch bombing raids deep inside Russia, even if this provokes the Kremlin to use nuclear weapons. At the US Council on Foreign Relations yesterday, outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called for giving nuclear-capable F-16 jets and long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. He insisted that NATO member countries are ready to use these weapons to bomb targets “very deep” inside Russian territory. He said:All of these weapons are advanced weapons, and some Allies have no restrictions on the use of these weapons against legitimate military targets on the territory of Russia. Other Allies have had restrictions, but most of them actually loosened those restrictions. … I understand the difference between deep and deeper, and very deep into Russian territory, but fundamentally, we have crossed those lines many times already, because we cannot accept that Russia is trying to get control over Ukraine and prevent us from supporting Ukraine by using all these different threats. The NATO alliance is effectively declaring that it is willing to risk nuclear war. While Stoltenberg absurdly claimed that “deterrence is there to prevent war,” in fact, his comments show precisely the opposite. Even the threat of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal is insufficient to deter NATO, which has already bombed civilian residential areas of Russian cities and military bases, from pledging to carry out a massive bombing campaign against Russia. The NATO alliance, Stoltenberg continued, is waging a global conflict, including with countries in Asia and the Middle East whom he denounced as “enablers” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. He denounced North Korean deliveries of artillery shells, Iranian delivery of drones and Chinese delivery of key industrial components to Russia. Stoltenberg particularly denounced China, the world’s second-largest economy. He said: We see them in Africa. We see them in the Arctic. … The microelectronics, the components which are used to build the bombs and the missiles that Russia is using against Ukraine every day are based on deliveries from China. So, then to say that this is a regional thing, no, it’s not a regional thing, because the main enablers of Russia’s war are from outside Europe: North Korea, Iran and China. NATO officials’ arguments that “deterrence is there,” or that they know the Kremlin is bluffing and will not risk attacking NATO targets are conscious lies. By massively escalating the bombing of Russia, they are goading the Kremlin into drastic retaliation, quite likely involving the use of nuclear weapons. The question that is posed is what interests are driving this monumentally reckless strategy, which risks provoking a nuclear war that, if it escalates, could destroy all of humanity. Currently, the NATO-backed Ukrainian army faces a defeat which, as Stoltenberg’s remarks make clear, is unacceptable to the main NATO imperialist powers. They see that direct NATO intervention is necessary if Russia is to be militarily defeated. However, this faces overwhelming opposition in the working class: Fully 91 percent of North Americans and 89 percent of West Europeans oppose sending troops to Ukraine, as proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron. It is apparent that, despite bitter factional battles in the ruling class, powerful factions of the bourgeoisie in the NATO countries aim to provoke Russian retaliation, manifestly hoping the political shock at home will create more favorable conditions for launching a Europe-wide war against Russia. It is well known in official circles that the ludicrous arguments like Stoltenberg’s, that NATO can bomb Russia without provoking a war, are a pack of lies. Yesterday, the New York Times reported that US intelligence agencies are warning that NATO missile strikes on Russia will provoke Russian strikes on NATO targets. “U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia,” the Times wrote. It said Russia’s response might range from “sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on US and European military bases.” And yesterday, Putin’s main remaining ally in Europe, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, recklessly pledged to respond to a US-Polish attack into Belarusia with nuclear weapons. “As soon as they attack us, we use nuclear weapons. Russia will defend us,” he said at a public meeting in Minsk, adding: “If we use nuclear weapons, they will do the same. And against Russia too. So Russia will use the entire arsenal of weapons. This will be a world war. … We tell them openly: the red line is the state border. You step on it, we will respond immediately.” The military concerns driving Russian and Belarusian officials to threaten the use of nuclear weapons in response to NATO strikes on Russia are emerging more clearly. It is evident that last week’s NATO-Ukrainian bombing of the major Russian ammunition dump at Toropets has substantially weakened the Russian army. Even if it retained superiority over the Ukrainian army, which has been bled white by nearly three years of war, it would still now be in a far weaker position facing NATO.
Video shows Russian jet's 'unsafe' encounter within feet of U.S. F-16 off Alaska The U.S. military is slamming Russia for an “unsafe” encounter in the skies off the coast of Alaska after footage released Monday shows a Kremlin fighter jet cutting off an Air Force F-16. The incident, which took place Sept. 23, involved a Russian Su-35 fighter flying in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in international airspace, where the F-16 was sent to intercept it. The F-16, which was assigned to North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), was initially shadowing a different Russian aircraft before the Su-35 sharply cut in front of it, coming within feet of the American fighter jet. In the video, the F-16 pilot can be heard exclaiming in surprise as the Russia fighter jumps in front of them. “NORAD aircraft flew a safe and disciplined intercept of Russian Military Aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ,” Air Force Gen. Gregory Guillot, the commander of NORAD, said in a statement posted to the social platform X. “The conduct of one Russian Su-35 was unsafe, unprofessional, and endangered all – not what you’d see in a professional air force.” The incident comes amid a series of Russian pushes into the Alaskan ADIZ, entering the zone four times in September, according to NORAD. The Sept. 23 intercept involved four Russian aircraft, the command said at the time. Usually, the intercepts are carried out in a safe and professional manner, but occasionally Russian military aircraft engage in aggressive tactics, as they did in March 2023 when a Russian Su-27 clipped a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, forcing it to crash into the Black Sea. Then, in Syria in June 2023, a Russian aircraft came close to U.S. fighters, surveillance aircraft and drones. And in July 2023, a Kremlin fighter jet damaged a U.S. MQ-9 drone when it shot flares at it as they passed by. Last month’s Alaska incident came weeks after Russia and China conducted joint military drills in the air and waters west of the state. The U.S. tracked eight Russian military planes and four navy vessels including two submarines during those exercises.
Biden Approves $567 Million in Military Aid for Taiwan, Angering China - On Sunday, the White House released a brief memo stating that President Biden approved $567 million in new military aid for Taiwan, a move that has angered China.The memo said Biden authorized Secretary of State Antony Blinken to “direct the drawdown of up to $567 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan.”The memo offered no details on what types of weapons would be sent to Taiwan. Earlier this month, a US official told Defense News that the military aid package for Taiwan was set to be approved and said it would fund training, stockpiles, anti-armor weapons, air defense, and multi-domain awareness, but they wouldn’t be more specific.The military aid is being provided through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the president to ship weapons directly from US military stockpiles. Congress has authorized the provision of $1 billion in PDA for Taiwan each year, and the $95 billion foreign military aid bill Biden signed in April included $1.9 billion that could be used to replenish weapons sent to Taiwan.Since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979, the US has always sold weapons to Taiwan, but it did not provide weapons free of charge or finance the purchases until last year, which marked a significant escalation of US support for the island.On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly denounced the new military aid for Taiwan. “This once again shows that the separatist moves for ‘Taiwan independence’ and connivance and support for such moves from US-led external forces are the biggest threat facing cross-Strait peace and stability and cause the greatest disruption to the real status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian.“We urge the US to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, and stop arming Taiwan in any form. No matter how many weapons the US provides to the Taiwan region, it will never weaken our firm will in opposing ‘Taiwan independence,’ and safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Lin added.
Navy pushes to catch up to China’s superiority at sea -- The U.S. Navy is gearing up for a major war in the South China Sea by the end of the decade, reshaping military posture and structure as it aims to catch up to a larger Chinese naval force.Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti released a highly anticipated report this month that outlines seven strategies the Navy will follow to ensure the U.S. is prepared for a potential conflict with China by 2027. That’s the date Chinese leader Xi Jinping has told his forces to be ready for a potential invasion of the self-governing island nation of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as historically part of the mainland. The 2027 date does not mean a war will happen that year, but the Navy wants to ensure it is ready — if an enhanced U.S. force does not deter Xi from an invasion.Franchetti’s strategic plan zeroes in on how the Navy, the key military branch in the event of a South China Sea conflict, can best prepare itself given multiple constraints, including a troubled shipbuilding industry and historically low recruitment. In a September event with the Center for Strategic and International Studies this month, Franchetti said her plan, which follows strategic guidelines called Project 33, addresses a “changing geopolitical environment” driven by China, domestic challenges and the shift in modern warfare.“These are areas that I can put my thumb on a scale. We can make a difference in those areas, and will make meaningful contribution to our ability to be more ready by 2027,” she said. The strategy, focused on speeding up maintenance to retain a larger combat-ready force and deploying new technologies like autonomous drones, has won support from lawmakers on Capitol Hill who oversee the Navy and have been concerned about the U.S. falling behind China. Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.), ranking member of the seapower subcommittee under the House Armed Services Committee, said Franchetti was “right on target” with her strategy, pointing to efforts to increase maintenance work at shipyards. “The Navy is not just talking about this, [and] I actually think there’s really been some really encouraging progress,” he said. “This is her document [that is] talking about 2027, which is really right around the corner. In my opinion, it’s being released in tandem with some really good work that’s being done to speed up the turnaround.” Through the strategy, the Navy is aiming to address one of its most troubling problems: Chinese military’s mass. China is expected to have 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030, while the U.S. Navy operates 296 ships, and will likely have 294 by the end of fiscal 2030, according to the Congressional Research Service. Naval ships deployed by both China and the U.S. include large aircraft carriers, submarines, combat-built destroyer ships and agile amphibious assault ships, among others. While the disparity is concerning for the U.S., Franchetti lays out a plan for overcoming these numbers through joint warfighting, or the ability to connect all aspects of the U.S. armed forces under a coordinated military structure. Joshua Tallis, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses, said “it would be wrong to simply count Chinese ships and U.S. ships and then assume that one country had the advantage over the other.” “The correct way to understand the U.S. Navy’s ability to counter that threat is to understand the U.S. Navy in the context of this much bigger joint warfighting ecosystem,” he said, adding the Navy strategy “is a strong step in the right direction.” Still, ship numbers do matter in Washington, which is actively trying to solve the problem ahead of a potential Chinese conflict. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is facing major challenges. In the 1980s, the U.S. had some 300 shipyards, and today, it has around 20. The U.S. has also shrunk its capacity for maintenance with fewer floating docks, called tenders, for destroyer ships and submarines. The decline is attributable to the end of the Cold War and the global war on terrorism, which saw less of a need for shipyards. But it means the U.S. is decommissioning ships faster than it is building them, shrinking the size of the fleet. The Navy has a five-year shipbuilding plan that would increase the fleet to a goal of 381 total ships over 35 years.But the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said in an August post that the Navy and Coast Guard shipbuilding efforts are both behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, with design and construction processes taking so long it sometimes delivers ships built with outdated systems.Some experts have called for the U.S. to increase subsidization of a shipbuilding industry that is now handled almost exclusively by private contractors that are struggling with staff or other hurdles. And lawmakers are now making efforts to address the shipbuilding crisis. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) plan to soon introduce a bill to help restore shipbuilding capacity and make it more cost-effective, the lawmakers said at a Wednesday Center for Strategic and International Studies event.“The Chinese navy is growing and rapidly expanding,” said Waltz at the event, warning of a “deeper issue” if a war breaks out with China. “Why does this matter to everyday Americans? … 50 percent of global [economic output] is sitting in that area, and if China manages to control or coerce that area, that’s a huge step toward Xi’s stated goal of replacing the United States as a global leader.”
World War II Bomb Dropped by U.S. Explodes at Japanese Airport - An unexploded U.S. bomb from World War II suddenly detonated at Miyazaki Airport in southwestern Japan on Wednesday. The blast caused significant disruption, as it left a large crater in a taxiway and forced the cancellation of more than 80 flights, but there were no casualties. The bomb, which had remained buried at the site since the war, suddenly exploded although there were no aircraft nearby, according to Japan's Land and Transport Ministry. Officials have confirmed that the blast was caused by a 500-pound U.S. bomb but they assured the public that there is now no cause for concern.Investigators, including Japan's Self-Defense Forces and police, are now working to determine what triggered the bomb's sudden detonation after it had lain dormant for decades.Video footage captured by a nearby aviation school showed the force of the blast, with pieces of asphalt spewing into the air like a fountain. Japanese television aired dramatic images of a crater on the taxiway, which reportedly measured about 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter and 1 meter (3 feet) deep. An investigation into the blast is ongoing, with officials working to ensure that the site is thoroughly secured. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced that over 80 flights had been canceled as a precaution, severely affecting travel in the region. Authorities are hopeful that operations at Miyazaki Airport can resume as soon as Thursday morning.The airfield at Miyazaki was originally built in 1943 as a flight training facility for the Imperial Japanese Navy and kamikaze pilots launched suicide missions from there during the final stages of World War II. The surrounding area has seen a number of unexploded bombs unearthed over the years, a legacy of missions carried out by U.S. forces during the conflict. The issue of unexploded ordnance from World War II remains a pressing concern for Japan, with hundreds of tons of bombs still buried across the country. These hidden relics occasionally come to light during construction projects and other activities, posing a significant risk to public safety.This latest incident is a stark reminder that, even decades after the end of World War II, remnants of the conflict continue to have a tangible impact on daily life in Japan. While these bombs are typically discovered under controlled conditions, their unpredictable nature, as highlighted by Wednesday's incident, shows the importance of continued vigilance and robust safety measures.
UN Security Council extends Haiti security mission - The United Nations Security Council on Monday unanimously renewed a multinational security support mission (MSS) in Haiti to combat armed gangs after the U.S. dropped a push to enlarge the effort into a peacekeeping force. The resolution, led by the U.S. and Ecuador, extends the MSS for another year, until October 2025, giving police forces more time to address the surge of violent gangs in the Caribbean island nation. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the renewal “sends a strong message to the people of Haiti.” “The world stands with you, and we are unwavering in our efforts to restore security and stability,” she told media in New York. “Haiti continues to face a prolonged crisis aggravated by the activities of criminal gangs and their indiscriminate violent attacks that disproportionately impacts the civilian population, especially women and children.” The U.S. effort to transform the MSS into a peacekeeping mission met opposition from China and Russia, which are permanent members of the Security Council and hold veto power. Both countries had expressed concern the mission was not yet ready for such a transformation, and the resolution was ultimately amended to remove the language of a peacekeeping effort. The MSS, led by Kenya, initially deployed in June and now has some 400 police officers supporting the Haitian National Police. It has achieved some progress in wrestling back control from armed gangs in the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince, but the effort remains underfunded and has yet to push out the gangs controlling most of the city. Kenyan President William Ruto said he was “deeply grateful” for the financial support for the MSS, but that the mission was “hindered by insufficient equipment, logistics and funding.” “I appeal to all member states to stand in solidarity with the people of Haiti,” he said in an address to the U.N. last week. “The progress so far in Haiti demonstrates that what was once deemed mission impossible is indeed a present and undeniable possibility.” Ruto added that even with funding concerns he expects to deploy the entire police force of 2,500 officers by January. The U.S. and Canada are the biggest supporters of the MSS. Washington has contributed some $300 million to the mission, and Canada has donated more than $80 million in support, but much of the funding requirements for the MSS have not been met.
Republicans subpoena HHS secretary for details on unaccompanied minors - House Committee on Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) subpoenaed Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra late last week for documents on the whereabouts of thousands of migrant children in the United States. In a letter informing Becerra of the subpoena, Green wrote he previously requested documents in August on the “vetting, screening and monitoring” of unaccompanied children’s sponsors by the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) within HHS. Since then, Green wrote, ORR has given the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) “unsatisfactory responses” to their inquiry. Last week, HHS finally responded to DHS’s August request for documentation and sent the agency 717 pages of documents, 400 of which contained “nothing more than publicly available information,” according to Green’s letter. “HHS’ protracted response and wholly insufficient production constitute a clearly deliberate effort to unnecessarily expend Committee staff time, waste limited government resources, and frustrate legitimate congressional oversight,” the letter adds. The subpoena gives HHS until 12:00 p.m. on Oct. 3 to send DHS the requested documents on unaccompanied minors and their sponsors. Last year, Becerra said HHS did not know the status of more than 85,000 unaccompanied minors entering the country who had been released from the agency’s care but said that 85 percent of them had been placed with family members in the United States. A New York Times analysis of HHS data supports Becerra’s numbers, showing that between 2021 and 2023, the agency was unable to contact 85,000 unaccompanied minors under its care via telephone. A DHS report published in August claims that the number of unaccounted for, unaccompanied children is far lower than what Becerra said in 2023. The report states that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) transferred more than 448,000 unaccompanied children from the custody of DHS to HHS between 2019 and 2023. But ICE has been unable to account for the location of 32,000 unaccompanied minors who did not show up to scheduled immigration court appearances during those years, the report reads.
Biden administration doubles down on tough asylum restrictions at border -- The Biden administration said Monday it is making asylum restrictions at the southern border even tougher, as it's increasingly eager to show voters uneasy over immigration that it is taking a hard stance on border security. The new rules, which toughen restrictions announced in June, bar migrants from being granted asylum when U.S. officials deem that the southern border is overwhelmed. Under the previous rules, the U.S. could restrict asylum access when the number of migrants trying to enter the country between the official border crossings hit 2,500 per day. The daily numbers had to average below 1,500 per day for a week in order for the restrictions to be lifted. The version rolled out Monday says the daily numbers will have to be below 1,500 for nearly a month before the restrictions can be lifted. And the administration is now counting all children toward that number, whereas previously only migrant children from Mexico were counted. These changes, which go into effect on Tuesday, will make it much more difficult to lift the restrictions and allow people entering the country between the official border crossings eventually to apply for asylum in the U.S. But the restrictions implemented in June have never been lifted because the numbers of border encounters have never gotten low enough for long enough, raising the question of why the administration felt the need to make them even tougher now. The seven-day average has gotten down to about 1,800 migrant encounters per day, the Department of Homeland Security said. A senior administration official said Monday that the longer timeline was necessary to make sure that drops in immigration are sustained and not due to a one-time event. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to brief reporters about the tighter restrictions before they were made public. Immigration advocates already had harshly criticized the restrictions announced in June, saying the administration was slashing away at vital protections for people fleeing persecution. The administration has touted its asylum restrictions, saying they have led to serious drops in the number of migrants coming to the southern border. The Department of Homeland Security said Monday that since the changes were announced in June, the daily number of people encountered by Border Patrol between the legal border crossings has fallen over 50%. In a statement announcing the new rules, DHS called on Congress to do more to solve immigration problems. Border security and immigration are a key weakness for the Biden administration and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and others from his party have hammered away at the high numbers of migrants who've come to the southern border under the Biden administration, saying the White House and Harris haven't done enough to restrict migration and secure the border. Harris visited a border region of Arizona on Friday, her first visit as the Democratic nominee. She walked along the tall metal fence separating the U.S. from Mexico and called for a tightening of asylum rules while pushing for a better way to welcome immigrants legally. "I reject the false choice that suggests we must choose either between securing our border and creating a system that is orderly, safe and humane," Harris said. "We can and we must do both." The restrictions do allow some exceptions. Victims of a severe form of trafficking, for example, would still be allowed to apply for asylum. The administration also allows people using its CBP One appointment system to apply for asylum, but those people must schedule an appointment on the app to come to an official border crossing point. The administration has tried to encourage migrants to use that app instead of crossing the border illegally. But demand far exceeds the 1,450 appointments available daily, and the administration has not indicated that it will increase the number of appointments.
U.S. East Coast port strike looms Tuesday with no talks scheduled - U.S. East and Gulf Coast port workers are set to go on strike at midnight on Monday with no talks currently scheduled to head off a stoppage threatening to halt container traffic from Maine to Texas and cost the economy as much as $5 billion a day. The labor contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) union representing 45,000 port workers and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group expires late Monday, with negotiations at an impasse over pay. A port strike will go ahead starting Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. ET, the ILA said on Sunday. The USMX "refuses to address a half-century of wage subjugation," the union said in a statement on Sunday. If union members do walk off the job, it would be the first coast-wide ILA strike since 1977, affecting ports that handle about half of the nation's ocean shipping. No negotiations are taking place and none are planned before the Monday deadline, a person familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one. The union has previously said the strike would not impact military cargo shipments or cruise ship traffic. But a strike could stop the flow of everything from food to automobiles at major ports, potentially jeopardizing jobs and stoking inflation weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Business Roundtable, which represents major U.S. business leaders, said it was "deeply concerned about the potential strike at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports." The group warned a labor stoppage could cost the economy billions of dollars daily, hurting businesses, workers and consumers across the country. "We urge both sides to come to an agreement before Monday night's deadline." A short strike could have a limited economic impact given many companies have imported extra goods ahead of a possible work stoppage or shifted more shipments to West Coast ports. But a strike that continues for weeks could have serious economic impacts. "These people today don't know what a strike is," Harold Daggett, the ILA's fiery leader, said in a recent video post. "I'll cripple you. I will cripple you." For months, Daggett has threatened to shut down the 36 ports covered by his union if employers like container ship operator Maersk and its APM Terminals North America do not deliver significant wage increases and stop terminal automation projects. The dispute is worrying businesses that rely on ocean shipping to export their wares, or secure crucial imports. Steve Hughes, CEO of HCS International, which specializes in automotive sourcing and shipping, accused the ILA of "holding the entire country over a barrel." An ILA strike could wedge labor-friendly President Joe Biden into a no-win position as Vice President Kamala Harris runs a razor-tight election race against former President Donald Trump. Biden on Sunday said he did not intend to intervene to prevent a walkout if dock workers failed to secure a new contract. U.S. presidents can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day cooling-off period under the federal Taft-Hartley Act, forcing workers back on the job while negotiations continue. On Friday, Biden administration officials met with the USMX employer group to directly convey "that they need to be at the table and negotiating in good faith fairly and quickly" – a message it had delivered earlier to the ILA. The USMX has accused the ILA of refusing to negotiate. Retailers that account for about half of all container shipping volume, and are headed into their all-important winter holiday sales season, have been busily employing backup plans. "There is potential for another violent move across consumer stocks next week if – as is consensus thinking - the East Coast Longshoremen do indeed strike," Jefferies analysts said in a client note. Many of the big retail players rushed in Halloween and Christmas merchandise early to avoid any strike-related disruptions - incurring extra shipping and storage costs. Retail behemoth Walmart, the largest U.S. container shipper, and membership warehouse club operator Costco say they are doing everything they can to mitigate any impact. But a lot of shippers do not have that flexibility as they are small, do most of their business on the East and Gulf Coasts or lack the financial might to load up on safety stock.
Biden says he won't intervene if port workers go on strike --U.S. President Joe Biden said on Sunday he did not intend to intervene to prevent a port strike on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline. "It's collective bargaining. I don't believe in Taft-Hartley," he told reporters. Presidents can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day cooling-off period under the federal Taft-Hartley Act.
Port workers strike for first time in nearly 50 years - Tens of thousands of longshoremen at ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico went on strike shortly after midnight, the first strike by the port workers’ union in nearly 50 years.Workers walked off the job from Maine to Texas, the Associated Press and other outlets reported, after the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) failed to reach an agreement by the midnight deadline.The USMX said Monday evening that it had “traded counteroffers related to wages” with the ILA, the first sign of movement in months.The union has demanded wage increases and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container-moving trucks. Negotiations had broken down in June between the ILA and the USMX over an automated gate at a port in Mobile, Ala.The USMX also said it had asked the union to extend the agreement that expired Oct. 1.“Both sides have moved off their previous positions,” the USMX said in a statement. “We are hopeful that this could allow us to fully resume collective bargaining.”Many retailers frontloaded shipments or diverted shipping through the West Coast in anticipation of the strike, but businesses are bracing for a strike with no clear end.Estimates for the economic impact of the strike cover a wide range: the business research nonprofit The Conference Board puts the cost at around $540 million per day, while analysts at JP Morgan estimated the cost could be up to $5 billion daily.Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien issued a statement of solidarity with the ILA Monday evening, saying, “The U.S. government should stay the f**k out of this fight and allow union workers to withhold their labor for the wages and benefits they have earned.”“Any workers—on the road, in the ports, in the air—should be able to fight for a better life free of government interference. Corporations for too long have been able to rely on political puppets to help them strip working people of their inherent leverage,” O’Brien said.While Biden dispatched senior officials to urge USMX and ILA officials to “come to a fair agreement fairly and quickly,” the president declined to invoke a legal maneuver that would have bought the parties more time to negotiate.The Taft-Hartley Act, which allows presidents to ask a court for an 80-day “cooling off” period for strikes that “imperil the national health or safety,” was last used by President George W. Bush in 2002.
East Coast ports strike, ILA union work stop strands billions in trade
- Approximately 50,000 ILA union longshoremen were walking off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas starting at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1 after failing to reach an agreement with ports ownership on a new contract, the union's first strike since 1977.
- Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly move through the U.S East Coast and Gulf ports.
- The International Longshoreman's Association, the largest maritime union in North America, rejected an offer from the port management group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years near 50%.
Billions in trade came to a screeching halt at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports after members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) began walking off the job after 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1. The ILA is North America's largest longshoremen's union, with roughly 50,000 of its 85,000 members making good on the threat to strike at 14 major ports subject to a just-expired master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), and picketing workers beginning to appear at ports. The union and port ownership group failed to reach agreement by midnight on a new contract in a protracted battle over wage increases and use of automation.In a last-ditch effort on Monday to avert a strike that will cause significant harm to the U.S. economy if it is lengthy — at least hundreds of millions of dollars a day at the largest ports like New York/New Jersey — the USMX offered a nearly 50% wage hike over six years, but that was rejected by the ILA, according to a source close to the negotiations. The port ownership group said it hoped the offer would lead to a resumption of collective bargaining.The 14 ports where preparations for a strike have been underway are Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Wilmington, North Carolina, Baltimore, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, and Houston. New York Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement issued shortly after midnight that "the first large-scale eastern dockworker strike in 47 years began at ports from Maine to Texas, including at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. In preparation for this moment, New York has been working around the clock to ensure that our grocery stores and medical facilities have the essential products they need."Rhetoric from ILA leadership has been aggressive in the weeks leading up to the strike, with ILA president Harold Daggett, who was a union member the last time it went out on strike in 1977, telling rank-and-file members — who unanimously voted to authorize a strike — in a recent video message, "We'll crush them." In a video posted to an ILA Instagram account, Daggett addressed union workers at Maher Terminals in Elizabeth, New Jersey. "This is going down in history, what we're doing here," he said. "They can't survive too long," he added.For now, it is the supply chain and U.S. economy which will take the immediate hit.Shana Wray, principal solutions architect for supply chain intelligence firm FourKites, tells CNBC the strike comes at the worst possible time, with its impact on supply chain congestion to exacerbate the devastation left behind from Hurricane Helene. "Helene caused ports to delay openings at the ports of Charleston and Savannah, as well as power losses at intermodal facilities in Savannah, Charleston, and Atlanta," said Wray. "This created ocean, trucking, and rail carriers congestion across Southeast and Gulf ports." Logistics experts have told CNBC in recent months there has been an exodus of cargo from the East to West Coast, and companies moved up orders for peak shipping season due to the strike risk. Both economists and logistics executives say the impact of the strike depends on how long the work stoppage lasts. "A disruption of a week or two will create some backlogs but the broader consequences will be minimal outside of a handful of very port-reliant areas, including Savannah," said Adam Kamins, economist at Moody's Analytics. "But anything longer will lead to shortages and upward price pressures," he said.
Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas go on strike, a standoff risking new shortages (AP) — Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas began walking picket lines early Tuesday in a strike over wages and automation that could reignite inflation and cause shortages of goods if it goes on more than a few weeks. The contract between the ports and about 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association expired at midnight, and even though progress was reported in talks on Monday, the workers went on strike. The strike affecting 36 ports is the first by the union since 1977. Workers began picketing at the Port of Philadelphia shortly after midnight, walking in a circle at a rail crossing outside the port and chanting “No work without a fair contract.” The union had message boards on the side of a truck reading: “Automation Hurts Families: ILA Stands For Job Protection.” Local ILA president Boise Butler said workers want a fair contract that doesn’t allow automation of their jobs. Shipping companies made billions during the pandemic by charging high prices, he said. “Now we want them to pay back. They’re going to pay back,” Butler said. He said the union will strike for as long as it needs to get a fair deal, and it has leverage over the companies. “This is not something that you start and you stop,” he said. “We’re not weak,” he added, pointing to the union’s importance to the nation’s economy At Port Houston, at least 50 workers started picketing around midnight local time carrying signs saying “No Work Without a Fair Contract.” The U.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents the ports, said Monday evening that both sides had moved off of their previous wage offers. But no deal was reached. The union’s opening offer in the talks was for a 77% pay raise over the six-year life of the contract, with President Harold Daggett saying it’s necessary to make up for inflation and years of small raises. ILA members make a base salary of about $81,000 per year, but some can pull in over $200,000 annually with large amounts of overtime. But Monday evening, the alliance said it had increased its offer to 50% raises over six years, and it pledged to keep limits on automation in place from the old contract. The union wants a complete ban on automation. It wasn’t clear just how far apart both sides are.
Biden: Striking port workers should see ‘meaningful increase’ in wages -President Biden called for striking port workers to get an increase in wages, hours after tens of thousands of longshoremen at ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico walked off the job.The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) failed to reach an agreement by the midnight deadline, leading to the first strike by the port workers’ union in nearly 50 years.Biden, in a statement, said he has urged USMX to come to the table and present a fair offer to the workers that ensures they are paid appropriately.“Ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic and in some cases profits grew in excess of 800 percent compared to their profits prior to the pandemic. Executive compensation has grown in line with those profits and profits have been returned to shareholders at record rates,” Biden said. “It’s only fair that workers, who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open, see a meaningful increase in their wages as well.” The union has demanded wage increases and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container-moving trucks, and the USMX said Monday evening that it had “traded counteroffers related to wages” with the ILA.Biden also noted that in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, dockworkers will play an essential role in getting communities resources, adding, “now is not the time for ocean carriers to refuse to negotiate a fair wage for these essential workers while raking in record profits.”He stressed that longshoreman have made a “substantial contribution” to the U.S. economy’s comeback, reiterating his call for USMX to negotiate a fair contract for them.
Biden Scolds Ocean Carriers For Not Paying Dockworkers "Fair" Wages \President Joe Biden broke his silence on the labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) by accusing employers of hoarding profits.“Ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic and in some cases profits grew in excess of 800 percent compared to their profits prior to the pandemic,” Biden said in a statement issued by the White House on Tuesday, after the ILA went on strike at 14 ports on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, halting container and roll-on/roll-off operations at 36 marine terminals.“Executive compensation has grown in line with those profits and profits have been returned to shareholders at record rates. It’s only fair that workers, who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open, see a meaningful increase in their wages as well.” In urging USMX to the bargaining table with an acceptable wage offer, Biden also warned the carriers against taking advantage of supply chain disruptions caused by Hurricane Helene.“As our nation climbs out of the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, dockworkers will play an essential role in getting communities the resources they need. Now is not the time for ocean carriers to refuse to negotiate a fair wage for these essential workers while raking in record profits.“My administration will be monitoring for any price gouging activity that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board.”Among USMX members are foreign-based container ship operators CMA CGM (France), Maersk (Denmark), Cosco (China), MSC (Switzerland), OOCL (Hong Kong) and Evergreen (Taiwan).The compounding effect of the strike and disruptions caused by the hurricane is raising transportation fears among food producers and retailers.“There’s never a good time for a strike,” said Food Industry Association President and CEO Leslie Sarasin in a statement on Tuesday.“Now, the current strike is compounding the horrific situation in the Southeastern United States resulting from Hurricane Helene and parties need to return to the negotiating table. “This action has already begun to jeopardize food supply chain operations, and the strike has the potential to disrupt the long-term stability of markets and commodities, namely pharmaceuticals, seafood, produce, meat, cheese, ingredients, and packaging.”White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Tuesday that the strike is not yet hindering relief and recovery efforts related to the hurricane because emergency supplies had been positioned ahead of the storm.She said the administration has stood up the Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, created by the White House in 2021 in the wake of the pandemic, to monitor the situation.“We are engaged extensively with labor, industry, state and local officials, ocean carriers, rail and truck companies, including multiple meetings with retailers, grocers, manufacturers, and agriculture,” Jean-Pierre said. “We are assessing ways to address any concerns, if necessary.”
East coast and gulf ports strike threatens banana supply -A strike at ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico could threaten Americans’ supply of bananas. Three-quarters of the nation’s bananas — more than 3.8 million metric tons — come through ports handled by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) each year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Some 27 percent of the nation’s banana imports came through the Port of Wilmington alone in 2023. The Delaware port touts itself as North America’s largest banana port, with Dole and Chiquita each calling at Wilmington twice a week. Tens of thousands of ILA workers at ports from Maine to Texas went on strike shortly after midnight Tuesday after the union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) failed to reach an agreement on a new contract. While many retailers front-loaded or diverted shipments to the West Coast in anticipation of the strike, these weren’t feasible options for banana imports, said Jason Miller, a Michigan State University professor of supply chain management. The value per pound of bananas is “quite low,” meaning it does not make sense to transport them by plane or reroute them to the West Coast and run shipments across the country via train or truck, Miller explained. As a perishable item, bananas also cannot be front-loaded, as has been done with holiday imports, he noted. “It’s one of those product categories that essentially once we run out of the current domestic supply for the areas serviced by the East and Gulf Coast, it’s going to be hard to get additional ones here,” Miller told The Hill. “A lot of Americans don’t realize that for many things, there just isn’t a Plan B because it’s not economical to do so, and this is an example of one of those type of goods,”
Panic-Buying Already Spreading As Dockworker Strike Gets Underway -- As union dockworkers began striking against employers at East and Gulf Coast ports early Tuesday morning, reports of panic-buying at supermarkets almost immediately started spreading across social media. Video clips posted by social media users on X and Facebook showed people rushing to buy water, toilet paper, paper towels and other items at supermarkets and retailers across the U.S. “Are people already panic buying because of the Port Strike? Here are the grocery shelves in the water section at my local Kroger this morning. I realize that we are probably also low on water due to the Helene aftermath in East Tennessee, but still not great to see this already,” photographer and author Denise Van Patten posted in a social media video clip on X. pic.twitter.com/bxP0QgygnC Micheal Coker posted on X, “Well the panic buying is in full swing in my little town in South Carolina. Sam’s at 8:30 a.m., no water. Same at Walmart and grocery stores. Next will be toilet paper.” Well the panic buying is in full swing in my little town in South Carolina. Sam's at 830am no water. Same at walmart and grocery stores. Next will be TP. Get yours before it's sears catalog for everyone The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is the union behind the strike against its United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employers for a new master contract. The two groups negotiated back and forth up until late Monday night, when the union’s deadline for a strike expired at midnight. Major issues on the bargaining table are wages, benefits and rules on port automation. The ILA said USMX’s latest reported wage increase proposal of 50% over six years of a new contract was rejected by its members.
US port workers and operators reach deal to end East Coast strike immediately (Reuters) - U.S. dock workers and port operators reached a tentative deal that will immediately end a crippling three-day strike that has shut down shipping on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, the two sides said Thursday. The tentative agreement is for a wage hike of around 62% over six years, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, including a worker on the picket line who heard the announcement. That would raise average wages to about $63 an hour from $39 an hour over the life of the contract. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) workers union had been seeking a 77% raise while the employer group - United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) - had previously raised its offer to a nearly 50% hike. The deal ends the biggest work stoppage of its kind in nearly half a century, which blocked unloading of container ships from Maine to Texas and threatened shortages of everything from bananas to auto parts, triggering a backlog of anchored ships outside major ports. The union and the port operators said in a statement that they would extend their master contract until Jan. 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all outstanding issues. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume," the statement said. Among key issues that remain unresolved is automation that workers say will lead to job losses. Union boss Harold Daggett said previously that employers such as container ship operator Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), opens new tab and its APM Terminals North America had not agreed to demands to stop port automation projects that threaten jobs. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration had sided with the union, putting pressure on the port employers to raise their offer to secure a deal and citing the shipping industry's bumper profits since the COVID-19 pandemic. The tentative deal "represents critical progress towards a strong contract," Biden said on Thursday. "Collective bargaining works," he added. His administration has repeatedly resisted calls from business trade groups and Republican lawmakers to use federal powers to halt the strike - a move that would undermine Democratic support among unions ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Dockworkers' union to suspend strike until Jan. 15, source says (AP) — The union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports reached a deal Thursday to suspend a three-day strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract. The union, the International Longshoremen’s Association, is to resume working immediately. The temporary end to the strike came after the union and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents ports and shipping companies, reached a tentative agreement on wages, the union and ports said in a joint statement. A person briefed on the agreement said the ports sweetened their wage offer from about 50% over six years to 62%. The person didn’t want to be identified because the agreement is tentative. Any wage increase would have to be approved by union members as part of the ratification of a final contract. The union went on strike early Tuesday after its contract expired in a dispute over pay and the automation of tasks at 36 ports stretching from Maine to Texas. The strike came at the peak of the holiday shopping season at the ports, which handle about half the cargo from ships coming into and out of the United States.The walkout raised the risk of shortages of goods on store shelves if it lasted more than a few weeks. Most retailers, though, had stocked up or shipped items early in anticipation of the dockworkers’ strike.In a statement later, Biden applauded both sides “for acting patriotically to reopen our ports and ensure the availability of critical supplies for Hurricane Helene recovery and rebuilding.”Biden said that collective bargaining is “critical to building a stronger economy from the middle out and the bottom up.”The union’s membership won’t need to vote on the temporary suspension of the strike, meaning that giant cranes should start loading and unloading shipping containers Thursday night. Until Jan. 15, the workers will be covered under the old contract, which expired on Sept. 30.
Betrayal on the docks: ILA sells out longshoremen’s strike - In a massive betrayal, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) shut down the powerful strike by 45,000 dockworkers Thursday afternoon. Longshoremen must reject this effort to sabotage their struggle. The strike demonstrated the vast power of the working class, threatening to bring the operations of major corporations to a halt and threatening the conduct of the United States’ global war. But the more powerful the strike, the more rapidly the trade union bureaucracy feels it must be shut down. The ILA bureaucracy felt compelled to ride to the rescue of the Biden administration and ensure the flow of weapons for America’s global wars. Having already pledged to continue moving military equipment during the strike, the union apparatus was eager to prove to the political establishment that it can be relied upon to enforce order on the “home front.” The shutdown of the strike followed the announcement Thursday afternoon by right-wing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that he would deploy the National Guard to ports in Florida in order to break the strike, falsely claiming that the strike was interfering with relief efforts after Hurricane Helene. In shutting down the strike, the ILA officials announced a “tentative agreement” on wages only, but no full contract. Workers are being sent back under a 90-day extension to the existing contract which expires on January 15. The agreement on wages is rumored to be for a 61 percent increase over six years. But there is no agreement on other aspects, including job protection from automation. This was the biggest issue behind the strike in the first place. The union bureaucrats claim that the three-month extension will give negotiators “time” to hash out this and other terms. This is absurd, given the fact that they have willingly given up workers’ leverage by shutting down the strike before these talks have even begun. As with the United Auto Workers’ limited “stand-up strike” last year and the Teamsters union’s empty “strike ready” campaign at UPS last year, the stage is being set for massive automation-driven layoffs. Bureaucrats from each union likewise claimed “historic victories” on wages and other issues, only to allow thousands to begin losing their jobs within weeks of ratification. Over the past two days, there has been a massive campaign in the corporate media against the strike. A series of statements, including from the Wall Street Journal and National Review, have urged Biden to issue a Taft-Hartley injunction. Business Insider called the strike one of “a trio of crises” threatening to upend the Harris presidential election campaign. Many outlets, including so-called “liberal” newspapers such as the New York Times, ran pieces about ILA President Harold Daggett’s close to $1 million union salary, reminding him on which side his bread is buttered. On Wednesday, Biden, who banned a strike on the railroads two years ago, called the dock strike a “man-made disaster” and called on the union and port operators to “get this strike done.” This amounted to marching orders to the ILA bureaucrats that they could not allow the strike to go on any longer.
Second oil company CEO conspired with OPEC to keep prices high, FTC charges - Federal regulators are alleging a major oil company CEO conspired with foreign governments to keep oil and gas prices high. On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a complaint against John B. Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, accusing him of secretly communicating with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Hess’s company had sought a $53 billion merger with oil giant Chevron — a deal that the FTC ruled could go forward only if Hess himself was not involved with the subsequent company. “We are very pleased that our merger with Chevron has cleared this significant regulatory hurdle,” Hess said in a statement. “This transaction continues to be an outstanding deal for Hess and Chevron shareholders and will create a premier integrated energy company that is ideally positioned for the energy transition.” But while Hess will remain on as an advisor to Chevron concerning the new company’s business operations in Guyana, he will not get a seat on its board. The FTC asserted in its complaint that his direct involvement in the new conglomerate would “heighten the risk of harm” to market competition, and would “meaningfully increase” the risk of the kind of backdoor coordination between rivals that is barred by federal antitrust law. Hess, the FTC charged, urged OPEC officials to push publicly and privately for “inventory management,” or reduced pumping and fracking with the goal of driving up prices. That goal cuts against the principal selling point of the shale boom for American consumers, the FTC charges. The record U.S. oil and gas production allowed by tools like fracking and directional drilling have undercut the “artificially low production levels and associated artificially high prices OPEC oil producers seek to set,” the agency said. With 50 percent of global oil production under its control, OPEC has historically been able to influence or even set global prices, the FTC noted — something that would be illegal if carried out within the U.S. As the U.S. fracking boom crashed global oil prices, “OPEC officials had an incentive to coordinate with these [U.S.] rivals rather than compete,” the agency charged. Hess, in statements included in the filing, has praised OPEC’s price-controlling pumping. He said in a 2021 Hess earnings call that the cartel’s leadership had done a “masterful job [in] giving the market what it needs, but not oversupplying it,” and that “OPEC, I think, has done a great job managing the oil market.”
Judge partially dismisses FTC’s antitrust lawsuit against Amazon --A federal judge on Monday partially dismissed the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust lawsuit against Amazon. However, few details are currently available about U.S. District Judge John Chun’s decision, which was filed under seal. Amazon asked the judge to dismiss the FTC’s lawsuit in December, arguing the practices the agency deemed anticompetitive are actually “common retail practices that presumptively benefit consumers.” The FTC and 17 states sued Amazon last September, accusing the e-commerce giant of engaging in anticompetitive practices that raise prices for shoppers and extract excessively high fees from sellers. The agency alleged Amazon uses tactics that deter other online retailers from offering lower prices and makes it more expensive for sellers to offer their products on other platforms by tying their eligibility for Prime to their use of Amazon’s fulfillment services. However, Amazon argued in its motion to dismiss in December that its pricing mechanism is a standard discounting tactic encouraged by antitrust laws. It also disputed the allegations that it conditions Prime eligibility on the use of its fulfillment services. “Amazon promptly matches rivals’ discounts, features competitively priced deals rather than overpriced ones, and ensures best-in-class delivery for its Prime subscribers,” it argued in the filing. “Those practices—the targets of this antitrust Complaint— benefit consumers and are the essence of competition.” Amazon and the FTC declined to comment on Monday’s decision.
Lawmakers push for agricultural disaster aid after Hurricane Helene - A bipartisan group of lawmakers from Southern states are calling on congressional leaders to pass federal agricultural disaster assistance, in the wake of Hurricane Helene and other recent natural disasters.In a letter dated Monday, 34 lawmakers called on party leaders to work with state officials and the Biden administration to help agricultural sectors, as farmers continue “to suffer catastrophic losses” as a result of the strong winds and rainfall.“To prevent deep and lasting economic damage to the agricultural industry in the southeastern United States, it is imperative that Congress make appropriations as soon as possible upon the completion of damage assessments to fully fund unmet agricultural disaster relief needs in our states and across the nation,” according to the letter, which was led by two Georgia lawmakers: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican Rep. Austin Scott.“Additionally, farmers and growers nationwide, not only those damaged by Helene, have now faced multiple growing seasons without sufficient federal support,” they continued in the letter. “Our constituents are counting on us to act swiftly.”Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Florida, Georgia and North Carolina bore the brunt of the storm’s impact, but its high winds and rainfall brought devastation all along its path, as much as 500 miles north of the Gulf Coast.The Biden administration has said there are roughly 600 people unaccounted for across several states because of the storm, and The Associated Press reported that the death toll surpassed 130 people. President Biden said Monday he expects to ask Congress for a supplemental bill to fund Hurricane Helene relief efforts but said he didn’t have a price tag for it yet, adding, “This is a historic storm. It’s devastating.” Biden suggested members might have to return from their lengthy election recess to pass the bill, saying when asked, “That is something I may have to request, but no decisions are made yet.” Congress last week passed a continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding at current levels until Dec. 20, but the measure excluded additional funding for Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster relief programs.Some lawmakers have expressed frustration at the process by which Congress has relied on CRs to keep the government open, noting there are new needs that go unmet as a result. “One of the dangerous things with the CRs … is that it’s not just enough to keep the government going. You’re not meeting the needs of where the country and your communities currently are at,” Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) said Monday.
Donald Trump, Elon Musk talked about Starlink set up after Hurricane Helene --Former President Trump on Monday said he’s spoken with Elon Musk about providing Starlink internet service for those without power in states ravaged by Hurricane Helene. Trump visited Valdosta, Ga., where he toured storm damage and expressed support for those dealing with the aftermath. The former president indicated he would also visit North Carolina, which was battered by the hurricane in recent days as well. “To every family that’s been displaced here in Georgia and in North Carolina, which has really been hit. We’re going there also. They don’t have communication, they don’t have anything right now,” Trump said. “I just spoke to Elon … we want to get Starlink hooked up because they have no communication whatsoever. Elon will always come through. We know that,” Trump added. “We’re working on that getting them hooked up. We’re going to try and get the Starlink in there as soon as possible.” Musk is the founder of SpaceX, which operates Starlink satellites. Musk has endorsed Trump in the 2024 campaign. Trump vowed to be with those affected “as long as you need.” “The end result is it’s going to be good,” Trump said. A Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) fact sheet published Monday stated that 40 Starlink satellite systems were available to help first responders with communications, and 140 more satellites were being shipped to assist with communications to restore infrastructure. Helene made landfall Thursday in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, bringing with it devastating winds and rainfall. Roughly 100 people have been killed across several states, The Associated Press reported, and millions have been left without power. Vice President Harris, the Democratic nominee in November’s election, cut short her West Coast campaign swing to return to Washington on Monday for a briefing on the storm at the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s headquarters. Harris is expected to tour storm damage in the coming days once it’s no longer a strain on local resources.
Verizon service outage impacts thousands across the US -- Thousands of Verizon users across the country were experiencing service outages Monday morning. More than 100,000 Verizon users had reported outages as of midday Monday, according to Downdetector. The outage tracker’s map showed hotspots near Tampa, Fla.; Atlanta and New York City, among other locations. About 52 percent were experiencing problems with their mobile phones. Several users on social media said their phones showed “SOS,” an indication they had lost cellular service. “We are aware of an issue impacting service for some customers,” Verizon spokesperson Ilya Hemlin said in a statement. “Our engineers are engaged and we are working quickly to identify and solve the issue.” Other providers also showed smaller spikes on Downdetector on Monday morning. About 1,500 AT&T users reported outages. However, AT&T attributed this to an issue at “another carrier.” “Another carrier is experiencing a network issue that may be preventing our customers from calling their customers,” AT&T spokesperson Jim Kimberly said in a statement.
North Carolina congressman says federal response ‘disappointing’ following Helene destruction --Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), representing a district in the western portion of the Tar Heel State, said Monday that the federal response following Tropical Storm Helene’s destruction “has been disappointing.”“The response has been disappointing,” Edwards said on NewsNation’s “The Hill” to anchor Blake Burman. On Sunday, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said that a minimum of 11 people had died in the state as Helene resulted in widespread destruction. Landslides and flooding caused the closure of Interstate 40 and other roads, isolating the western part of North Carolina. The Associated Press reported that North Carolina saw some of its worst flooding in a century.“We [began] to see some … some resources brought in today, but the storm was over about 80 hours ago,” Edwards said in his interview with Burman. “The storm was over about 10 a.m. on Friday. We knew that the storm was coming, and only today are we beginning to see the first … [Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)] employees and trailers and … helicopters—”“How’s that, how’s that possible, congressman?” Burman cut in. “I mean … how’s that possible? “This was no secret that Asheville was gonna get historic flooding.”Edwards responded that he couldn’t “tell you how it [was] possible, but the people in Western North Carolina feel let down, deservedly so.”
Grid Apocalypse Hits Carolinas: 360 Substations Down, Power Restoration Could Take "Months" - Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), representing a district in the western portion of the state battered by Hurricane Helene, released apress release Sunday detailing the infrastructure devastation. The destructive path of #Helene has left extensive damage to@DukeEnergy infrastructure in the #NC mountains and Upstate #SC . We believe around 50% of remaining outages in these areas will require significant replacement and rebuilding of poles, lines and substation equipment. pic.twitter.com/b7eANjX0taEdwards said power outages remain widespread in Western North Carolina as of Sunday. Fast-forward to Wednesday morning, Poweroutage.US data shows more than 400,000 residents are without power in the region. He explained that 360 power substations "are out," indicating that "many of these substations were completely flooded, and Duke Energy is unable to assess the damage until the flooding has lowered, the water has been pumped out, and the equipment is thoroughly dried." What's piqued our interest is that the powering up America theme to power AI data centers and other electrification trends, such as EVs and onshoring manufacturing (as outlined in "The Next AI Trade"), has led to shortages and price increases in the transformer market. "Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure," National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher Killian McKenna said, who was recently quoted by PV Magazine. McKenna pointed out, "But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything."Other reasons for the transformer shortages besides power grid upgrades include raw material sourcing problems, pandemic-related supply chain woes and backlogs, labor constraints, shipping issues, and geopolitical tensions. Given all of this, Jesse D. Jenkins, an assistant professor and macro-energy systems engineering and policy expert at Princeton University, responded to the dire situation of a grid apocalypse playing out in the Southeast US: "This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure?" Making matters worse for residents of North Carolina, some X users are pointing out the Biden-Harris administration supplied transformers to Ukraine. It's unclear if these transformers were drained for US stockpiles. Meanwhile, others note that Ukraine uses a different electrical system than the US.
Biden declares disaster in Georgia after Hurricane Helene - The Biden administration has approved a national disaster declaration in Georgia following Hurricane Helene, a move that comes a day after the state’s congressional delegation requested it. The declaration, announced Tuesday, will make federal disaster funds available in 11 Georgia counties, including temporary housing and home-repair grants and low-cost loans to cover losses of uninsured property. Much of the most visible devastation from the storm, which made landfall in rural Florida, has been in western North Carolina, where many of the roads have been washed out and hindered the delivery of supplies. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) said Monday that at least 25 people, including a first responder, have died in the storm and its aftermath. The total death toll across six states is at least 130. Kemp has already declared a state of emergency for the state’s 159 counties. On Monday, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) led a letter co-signed by Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and the state’s 14 representatives asking Biden for the declaration. “We write to convey full support for Governor Brian Kemp’s (R) request for an expedited major disaster declaration for the counties in the State of Georgia significantly impacted by Hurricane Helene,” the members wrote in the letter. “We encourage your team to promptly consider Governor Kemp’s request for a major disaster declaration, and we stand ready to work with you and your Administration to support these critical recover efforts in Georgia.” Kemp said Monday that Biden had spoken with him over the weekend. “And I told him, we got what we need, we’ll work through the federal process. He offered that if there’s other things we need, just to call him directly, which I appreciate,” Kemp said. The president suggested Monday he was also considering calling Congress back into session to pass federal disaster funding after it was left out of a continuing resolution to fund the government last week, a call that has been echoed in the Senate by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
Mayorkas warns FEMA doesn't have enough funding to last through hurricane season (AP) — The Federal Emergency Management Agency can meet immediate needs but does not have enough funding to make it through the hurricane season, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told reporters Wednesday. The agency is being stretched as it works with states to assess damage from Hurricane Helene and delivers meals, water, generators and other critical supplies. The storm struck Florida last week, then plowed through several states in the Southeast, flooding towns and killing more than 160 people. Mayorkas was not specific about how much additional money the agency may need, but his remarks on Air Force One underscored concerns voiced by President Joe Biden and some lawmakers earlier this week that Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill this fall to help states with recovery efforts. “We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting,” Mayorkas said. “FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season.” Hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30, but most hurricanes typically occur in September and October. Congress recently replenished a key source of FEMA’s response efforts, providing $20 billion for the agency’s disaster relief fund as part of a short-term government spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 20. The bill also gave FEMA flexibility to draw on the money more quickly as needed. Both chambers of Congress are scheduled, however, to be in their home states and districts until after the election, as lawmakers focus on campaigning. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., gave no hint he was considering changing that schedule during a speech Tuesday. He said that Congress just provided FEMA with the funds it needs to respond and that lawmakers would make sure those resources are appropriately allocated. A bipartisan group of Senators from affected states wrote their leadership this week saying it’s clear Congress must act to meet constituents’ needs. They said that may even require Congress to come back in October, ahead of the election. Mayorkas made his comments as Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris fanned out across the Southeast to witness the damage from the hurricane and seek to demonstrate commitment and competence in helping devastated communities. Biden is heading to North and South Carolina, while Harris is going to Georgia.
As the death toll from Hurricane Helene climbs past 200, Trump, Harris and Biden campaign among the ruins -- The death toll from Hurricane Helene surpassed 200 Thursday as search and rescue teams made their way further into the broken mountain terrain of western North Carolina and Tennessee. According to the Associated Press, half of the storm’s victims are from North Carolina while dozens died in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. This makes Helene the deadliest storm to hit the continental United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The number of dead is expected to rise as hundreds of people are still unaccounted for nearly a week after the onslaught. Helene dropped 42 trillion gallons of rain on the Southeast. At 420 miles wide, Helene is the third largest hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast. Fueled by the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm rapidly grew to a Category 4 storm before it made landfall, as a consequence of climate change. Accuweather revised its initial estimate of the storm damage from $145 billion to $160 billion on Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, this will put Helene in the top five of the US’s costliest hurricanes. On Thursday, as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris posed this week in Georgia for the cameras amid the devastation, the White House published a press release boasting, “Biden-Harris Administration Provides More Than $20 Million to Hurricane Helene Survivors.” It does not require close reading of the document to realize the Biden administration did not cough up another $20 million dollars, a paltry sum given the magnitude of the devastation, for the survivors of Helene. The $20 million is from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the “flexible, upfront funding” boasted about in the first paragraph of the release indicates it is money coming from FEMA’s budget, specifically from its Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) which was reformed in March 2024 to provide “flexible funding” directly to survivors during a crisis. The fact is, Congress cut FEMA’s request for supplemental funding when it passed a stop-gap budget bill before it left for a six-week break on Wednesday, September 26. According to a report from Politico, FEMA’s disaster relief fund is facing a $2 billion deficit by the end of September. Former President Donald Trump made his own campaign stop in Valdosta, Georgia, this week on Monday where he postured about the limited federal response and posed in front of aid provided by Samaritan’s Purse, a nonprofit organization run by evangelist Franklin Graham. When he was president, Trump oversaw the disastrous response to Hurricane Maria in the US territory of Puerto Rico, which resulted in nearly 3,000 deaths in 2017. Trump infamously tossed paper towels to a crowd during a photo-op, expressing his disdain for the population of the impoverished island. Meanwhile, every day across the Southeast the historic extent of the devastation and its consequences is being revealed. As flood waters steadily recede in Tennessee and western North Carolina, the excess water is taxing the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA) dam and reservoir system downstream. Currently, TVA is spilling water from eight of nine dams on the Tennessee River until further notice. Water levels in some reservoirs reached their highest historic levels during Helene. Cities along the river, like Knoxville, Tennessee, were under a flood warning until Tuesday due to the amount of water moving through the system, causing high water on lakes and rivers downstream. The dam on Douglas Lake has been of particular concern to authorities due to high levels of runoff from the French Broad River filling the reservoir. The French Broad is responsible for catastrophic damage, including the washout of the eastbound lanes of Interstate 40 in North Carolina near Tennessee.
Helene aftermath: Biden directs up to 1,000 soldiers to assist in aid efforts; 190 dead in storm aftermath - What to know:
- The death toll from Hurricane Helene has risen to 190, and hundreds are still missing as a result of the storm and its aftermath, with many caught in historic flooding across Southeastern states.
- Parts of North Carolina have been devastated, with entire communities destroyed. At least 94 people are known to have died in the state.
- Power connections are being restored, but 1.3 million energy customers are still without power from Florida to Virginia.
- President Joe Biden is visiting North Carolina today. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is visiting Georgia. Republican nominee Donald Trump visited Georgia yesterday. Biden announced he has directed the Defense Department to deploy up to 1,000 active-duty soldiers to reinforce the North Carolina National Guard, aiding in the delivery of supplies, food and water to isolated communities.
- If you would like to help donate to survivors of Helene, several organizations, including the Red Cross and National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster, are seeking assistance from the public.
- NBC News Lite, a lightweight version of NBCNews.com available in emergency situations when internet connectivity may be limited, has been turned on for readers in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama.
Biden administration sends $100 million to repair roads, bridges in NC after Helene - The Biden administration announced Saturday that it would be sending $100 million to help the North Carolina Department of Transportation pay for immediate emergency repairs from Hurricane Helene damage, according to a press release.“Working in close coordination with North Carolina, we are providing this initial round of funding so there’s no delay getting roads repaired and reopened, and re-establishing critical routes,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in the release.“The Biden-Harris administration will be with North Carolina every step of the way, and today’s emergency funding to help get transportation networks back up and running safely will be followed by additional federal resources,” he added.Buttigieg said in a post on the social platform X that the transportation department approved the request.“Further support will follow as the administration works with states and communities at every step along the path to recovery,” he said in the post.This comes as Vice President Harris visits with North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in Charlotte on Saturday. Biden assessed the damage in North Carolina on Wednesday by helicopter, and applauded politicians on both sides of the aisle in the Carolinas for their responses, the Associated Pressreported.Hurricane Helene has killed at least 133 people in six Southeastern states, NewsNation reportedearlier this week.In western North Carolina, residents have been stranded by washed-out roads and by a lack of power and cellular service. During a briefing earlier this week, White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall suggested as many as 600 people were unaccounted for as of Monday afternoon, saying some might be dead, according to NewsNation.On Friday, Buttigieg called out tech billionaire Elon Musk for making false claims related to the federal government and posting a screenshot of a conversation with a person who said air space for deliveries had been “shut down” and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was “throttling flights.”“No one is shutting down the airspace and FAA doesn’t block legitimate rescue and recovery flights. If you’re encountering a problem give me a call,” Buttigieg stated.
Education Dept. extends deadline for defaulted student loan borrowers to get current - The U.S. Department of Education has extended the deadline for its Fresh Start program for defaulted student loan borrowers until Wednesday morning, according to an agency spokesperson. Borrowers who apply for the limited opportunity will be returned to good standing on their loans, and able to avoid the impact of delinquency and default. The original deadline for the Fresh Start program was Sept. 30, but an issue on a website of theirs led the department to decide to give borrowers until Wednesday at 3 a.m. ET to apply for it, the spokesperson told CNBC. The 12-month "on-ramp period" still expires on Sept. 30. Since the pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments ended, the Education Department has shielded borrowers from the worst consequences of missed payments, including collection efforts and negative credit reporting. Borrowers interested in applying for the Fresh Start program can learn more at StudentAid.gov. There were around 7.5 million federal student loan borrowers in default, the Education Department said in 2022, when it launched its mulligan program. That grim figure led to comparisons with the 2008 mortgage crisis.
Americans' Stunning And Growing Dependence On Government Aid In Pictures --The number of counties dependent on government aid has surged over time. The lead chart shows political party affiliation.The Wall Street Journal has a great article on the Growing Reliance of Americans Are Dependence on Government Aid over time. That is a free link.Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.This spending accounts for a big and growing share of the national debt. But this year’s presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, have said little about reining it in. In fact, both have offered plans that would add to the costs. Trump would end taxes on Social Security benefits. Harris would expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for lower-income workers and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies that are due to expire, among other proposals.The data help explain why. Though counties that rely significantly on government spending tend to be small, they are still home to nearly 22% of the U.S. population.
Kamala Harris says she backs legalizing marijuana --- Vice President Harris reaffirmed her support for legalizing marijuana Monday, speaking up on the issue publicly for the first time she became the Democratic nominee. “I just think we have come to a point where we have to understand that we need to legalize it and stop criminalizing this behavior,” Harris said during a nearly hourlong interview on the sports and culture podcast “All the Smoke” released Monday. “I just feel strongly people should not be going to jail for smoking weed,” she told hosts Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson. “And we know historically what that has meant and who has gone to jail.” The vice president added that supporting marijuana legalization is “not a new position for me. I have felt for a long time we need to legalize it.” Harris’s views on marijuana have evolved over the years. She has been criticized for aggressively prosecuting marijuana-related crimes when she was San Francisco’s district attorney and California’s attorney general. She also spoke out against Proposition 19, the failed 2010 California ballot measure to legalize and regulate marijuana. As a senator, Harris co-sponsored legislation to end the federal prohibition of marijuana. When she was running for president in 2019, she called for expunging nonviolent marijuana-related criminal offenses, something the Biden administration has now implemented. On April 20 this year, Harris posted on the social platform X that nobody “should have to go to jail for smoking weed” and said that “we must continue to change our nation’s approach to marijuana.” Earlier this year, the Biden administration also announced it started on the formal rulemaking process to reschedule marijuana from a Schedule I designation to a Schedule III designation. But President Biden has stopped short of calling for full legalization.
Two-thirds say health care not getting enough attention in election: Gallup - Two-thirds of Americans say health care is not getting enough attention from both political parties in the presidential election, a new survey found. According to the survey, conducted by Gallup and nonprofit West Health, 67 percent of respondents overall say health care is not receiving enough attention. Only 6 percent say it’s getting too much attention and 27 percent say health care is receiving the right amount. Democrats and independents were more likely than Republican respondents to say health care is not receiving enough attention, though 53 percent of GOP voters say the candidates could focus on it more, the survey found. Seventy-one percent of respondents who tuned in to last month’s debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump said the candidates did not spend enough time talking about health care issues. Independent voters are weary of both candidates’ stances on health care, Gallup noted. Independents slightly favored Harris on health care issues, like improving access to care, improving quality of care and lowering costs of prescriptions, but Trump trailed closely behind on many issues, the survey found. According to the poll, 63 percent of Americans say a candidate’s position on protecting Medicare and Social Security is the single most important health care-related issue in the election, or among the most important ones. A candidate’s position on lowering health care costs follows close behind with 57 percent support. Forty-three percent say a candidate’s policies related to mental health care access are among the most important health-related issues in the election. Older voters tend to favor a candidate’s position on Medicare and Social Security while younger voters prioritize mental health and lower costs, the survey found. It also found Democrats were more optimistic than their Republican and independent counterparts to say access to affordable health care will improve in the next five years, though no group was overwhelmingly optimistic that things will change. The survey was conducted Sept. 9-16 among 3,660 adults and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Donald Trump says he would veto national abortion ban - Former President Trump on Tuesday said he would veto a federal abortion ban if it made it to his desk in a potential second term after previously refusing to say whether he would do so. Trump weighed in on abortion on Truth Social as the topic was being discussed in the vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D). “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it, because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of their voters (The will of the people!),” Trump wrote. Trump during a Sept. 10 presidential debate with Vice President Harris refused multiple times to say whether he would veto a national abortion ban, arguing it was an unnecessary question. “I’m not in favor of an abortion ban, but it doesn’t matter, because this issue has now been taken over by the states,” Trump said at that debate. “I wouldn’t have to.” Democrats are concerned that a Trump presidency could enact national abortion restrictions or a ban even without Congress by invoking the Comstock Act, a law from 1873 that bars the mailing of abortion-related materials. Harris campaign spokesperson Sarafina Chitika in a statement said Trump was “scrambling to try and clean up his disastrous debate performance” with Tuesday’s social media post. “Women are living the consequences of the nightmare Trump created – and too many are losing their lives to extreme Trump bans,” Chitika said. “They will hold him accountable this November.” Walz and Vance spoke at length about abortion during Tuesday’s vice presidential debate. Walz cited multiple cases of women whose lives were jeopardized because of abortion restrictions in their states. Vance acknowledged Republicans could do a better job of messaging on the issue, but he echoed Trump’s stance that the issue should be left to the states after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
JD Vance, Tim Walz Veterans Affairs VA medical records breached; probe underway - Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) employees improperly accessed the medical files of vice presidential candidates Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, with a Justice Department investigation currently underway, the VA confirmed Monday. The Washington Post first reported the breach, noting that at least a dozen employees accessed Vance’s and Walz’s records this summer, a violation of federal health privacy laws. A statement from VA press secretary Terrence Hayes to The Hill confirmed that the department “reported to law enforcement allegations that VA personnel may have improperly accessed Veteran records.” “We take the privacy of the Veterans we serve very seriously and have strict policies in place to protect their records,” Hayes said. “Any attempt to improperly access Veteran records by VA personnel is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.” He would not say when the breach was discovered or when the respective campaigns were notified, referring additional questions to the Justice Department, which did not immediately respond. Vance, former President Trump’s running mate, served for four years in the Marine Corps directly after high school and had one tour in Iraq in 2005 as a combat correspondent. Walz, meanwhile, enlisted in the Army National Guard at 17, serving for 24 years before retiring in 2005 to run for Congress. The employees, who used their VA computers to get into the records mostly from their government offices, viewed the information over July and August, according to The Washington Post. The incidents were discovered in August during a security sweep of the VA’s high-profile health accounts, sources told the outlet. CNN reported that Vance’s team was alerted of the breach roughly two months ago, when an employee in the VA inspector general’s office reached out. A Harris campaign spokesperson also told the media outlet it had been informed. The Trump and Harris campaigns did not respond to requests for comment from The Hill.
Abby Phillip criticizes Tim Walz for lack of debate preparation --CNN’s Abby Phillip criticized Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) for what she described as an apparent lack of preparation for Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate. “I think we shouldn’t lose sight even in the [ability] that JD Vance came to this debate to land a bunch of punches, and he did. He landed a lot of punches. And Tim Walz didn’t seem prepared for it,” she said of Walz. “He did not respond to the criticisms and attacks Vance put on the table. He allowed some clear falsehoods. … I mean, I think there was a clear lack of preparation and execution here on Walz’s part. “I think actually it‘s the opposite,” CNN anchor Dana Bash interjected, saying Walz had “so many lines that he was clearly trying to say that he didn‘t listen” “And when JD Vance said one of the many, many things he really hit Kamala Harris on, not Tim Walz but Kamala Harris, he didn‘t respond because he clearly had things in his mind,” Bash continued. “I think the lack of interviews that he has done with national media, with local media, it showed he needed more reps.” Walz and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) traded barbs on immigration, the economy and foreign policy during Tuesday night’s debate, though much of the event took a more civil tone than the two presidential debates earlier this year. In one particularly tense moment, CBS moderator Norah O’Donnell cut the mics of both candidates after Vance criticized a real-time fact check co-moderator Margaret Brennan offered to a comment he made on migrants in Springfield, Ohio.
Hillary Clinton warns of October surprise targeting Kamala Harris --Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of an October surprise that will “distort and pervert” Vice President Harris. “There will be concerted efforts to distort and pervert Kamala Harris, who she is, what she stands for, what she’s done,” Clinton said during an interview with “Firing Line” host Margaret Hoover. She pointed to the 2016 “pizzagate” conspiracy theory that surrounded the end of her presidential campaign against Donald Trump. “I mean, look, I mean, the crazy story about me running a child trafficking operation out of a basement of a pizzeria,” Clinton said. The comment evoked laughter from the crowd. “Pizzagate,” as the child sex trafficking conspiracy became known, resulted in a North Carolina man opening fire on a Washington, D.C., pizza parlor in 2016. “Don’t laugh,” Clinton told the crowd. “It was a huge story. And it got one young man in North Carolina to get in his car with his, you know, assault rifle and drove up to liberate these nonexistent children and shoot up a pizzeria in Washington, D.C.” “This is dangerous stuff. It starts online often on the dark web. It migrates. It’s picked up by the pro-Trump media. It’s then reported on by everybody else, which makes sure it has about 100 percent coverage, and people believe it,” Clinton said.
Russian national accused in ransomware attacks in US - A Russian national is accused in a series of ransomware attacks in Texas and other parts of the U.S. over a seven-year period, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Tuesday.The DOJ, citing an unsealed indictment, alleged that Aleksandr Viktorovich Ryzhenkov gained unauthorized access personal and corporate files, rendered the data inaccessible using BitPaymer software and demanded payments for a decryption key that would prevent sensitive information from being released on the dark web.Ryzhenkov and others allegedly hacked into computer systems by taking advantage of vulnerabilities in hardware in addition to phishing campaigns and malware.“Ransomware attacks – particularly those deployed by bad actors with ties to Russia – can paralyze a company in the time it takes to open a laptop. Whether or not the ransom is paid, recovering from a ransomware attack is generally costly and time-consuming,” said Leigha Simonton, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas.The Department of the Treasury said Ryzhenkov targeted a New York bank, Swiss citizens and others under the pseudonym “Guester.” Authorities describe Ryzhenkov as the second in command at the Russia-based cybercriminal organization Evil Corp., a group accused of developing and distributing the Dridex malware.Treasury also announced that Ryzhenkov, who authorities believe resides in Russia, was added to its list of specially designated nationals, which prohibits U.S. financial institutions from engaging in certain transactions and activities with him.Bradley T. Smith, acting under secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said the action announced on Tuesday “underscores our collective commitment to safeguard against cybercriminals like ransomware actors, who seek to undermine our critical infrastructure and threaten our citizens.”
Fortnite maker accuses Samsung, Google of colluding to block app store competitors -Fortnite maker Epic Games filed a lawsuit Monday accusing Google and Samsung, the world’s largest Android maker, of conspiring to block third-party competitors of the Google Play Store.The suit, filed in federal court in California, alleges Samsung’s “Auto Blocker” feature illegally prevents users from downloading apps from places other than Google Play Store or Samsung’s Galaxy Store on Android devices, violating U.S. antitrust law. The Auto Blocker, a default feature on Samsung devices, is marketed by the company to “protect” Samsung devices by preventing the installation of apps from “unauthorized sources and blocking malicious activity.” Users can turn the setting off during the initial setup of their devices. The Google Play Store is used by hundreds of millions of people to download apps for smartphones that use Google’s Android software. According to the suit, only about 1 percent of Android app downloads come from the Galaxy Store, Samsung’s own app store. “Auto Block cements the Google Play Store as the only viable way to get apps on Samsung devices, blocking every other store from competing on a level playing field,” Epic wrote in a press release. Calling it a “coordinated illegal anticompetitive dealing,” the Fortnite creator alleged the feature harms developers and consumers, while undermining a federal jury’s decision against Google in another antitrust suit brought by Epic last year. In that case, the jury reached a unanimous verdict last December finding that the payment system and practices of Google’s Play Store were a violation of antitrust law. It capped off a three-year legal battle between Epic and Google after the game developing company accused Google of shielding its Play Store from competition to continue making billions in profits. Google collects a commission ranging from 15 percent to 30 percent on digital purchases within apps. Epic claimed that case also touched upon Google’s “long history of inducing Samsung into anticompetitive dealings.” The gaming development company is asking the court to require Samsung to eliminate the Auto Blocker by default and to issue an injunction prohibiting any anticompetitive and unfair conduct by Samsung and Google. A spokesperson for Samsung told The Hill the company plans to “vigorously contest Epic Game’s baseless claims.”
Robinhood launches crypto transfers in Europe in push overseas -- Retail investing platform Robinhood on Tuesday announced that it's offering customers in Europe the ability to transfer cryptocurrencies in and out of its app, broadening its product capabilities in the region as it presses ahead with international expansion. In a blog post on Tuesday, the company said that it'll allow customers in the European Union to deposit and withdraw more than 20 digital currencies through its platform, including bitcoin, ethereum, solana, and USD coin. The move effectively gives Robinhood's European users the ability to "self-custody" assets — meaning that, rather than entrusting your cryptocurrency to a third-party platform, you can instead take ownership of it in a fully owned wallet that holds your funds. In December last year, Robinhood launched its crypto trading service, Robinhood Crypto, in the EU for the first time. The service allowed users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, but not to move them away from the platform, either to another third-party platform or to their own self-custodial wallet. Johann Kerbrat, general manager of Robinhood's crypto unit, told CNBC that he thinks the EU has the potential to become an attractive market for digital currencies, thanks to crypto-friendly regulations being adopted by the bloc. "The EU can become a very attractive market next year," Kerbrat said in an interview. He pointed to the EU's landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), regulation, which sets out harmonized rules for the crypto sector across all 27 of the bloc's member states. Once MiCA is fully in place, Kerbrat said, every EU country will fall under the same unified regime. "In terms of total addressable market, [the EU] is as big as the U.S.," he told CNBC, adding, "it's definitely an interesting market for us." Robinhood added that, for a limited time, the company will offer European customers the ability to get 1% of the value of tokens deposited on its platform back in the form of the equivalent cryptocurrency they transfer into Robinhood. Robinhood is rolling out new features in the EU at a time when U.S. crypto firms are sparring with regulators at home. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission has sued several companies including Coinbase, Binance and Ripple over claims that they're all dealing in unregistered securities.
Visa launches platform to help banks issue stablecoins globally -Visa is launching a platform for banks to issue fiat-backed tokens such as stablecoins and tokenized deposits, as more financial institutions and businesses express interest in how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology can improve their operations. The Visa Tokenized Asset Platform will allow banks to "mint, burn and transfer" tokens as more financial institutions and businesses express interest in how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology can improve their operations.
BankThink Fraud remains a major concern for potential FedNow participants -- Last year, the Federal Reserve launched FedNow, a real-time payment service enabling eligible banks and credit unions to provide instant payment services to their customers to reduce reliance on slower payment methods like checks or ACH transfers. Upon launch, 35 financial institutions signed up, with this number quickly growing to more than 850 participants within the first year. Given this increase, it would be simple to assume that FedNow has been successful, but the reality is more nuanced. The service remains a long way off from its ultimate target to sign up 8,000 of the 10,000 banks and credit unions in the United States, with some attributing this slow adoption to fraud fears. The new real-time payments system is being optimized for speed, not necessarily security, requiring the banks participating in the program to exercise a heightened level of vigilance.
Fed governor calls for 'consensus' on AI regulation - The Federal Reserve Board's leading voice on artificial intelligence wants a unified approach to various elements of artificial intelligence, including its impact on bias and fraud. Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook called for weighing the costs and benefits of artificial intelligence, and flagged bias and fraud as areas of concern.
'Tip of the iceberg': How the EU AI Act will affect banks in the U.S. - The European Union Artificial Intelligence Act could have an impact on U.S. financial institutions similar to how the EU's General Data Protection Regulation was felt around the world. The European legislation prohibits or curtails what it deems to be risky usage of artificial intelligence. Banks will be caught in its net if they provide or deploy such AI systems in the EU.
TD Bank resolves Treasuries spoofing case amid wider U.S. probes - Toronto-Dominion Bank will pay more than $20 million as part of a deal with U.S. prosecutors and regulators to resolve investigations over a former trader's alleged placement of "spoof" orders to manipulate the U.S. Treasuries market. TD Bank must pay more than $20 million to resolve investigations over a former trader's alleged placement of "spoof" orders to manipulate the Treasuries market.
The anti-money-laundering lever that regulators have never used -- In 1992, Congress tightened certain banking rules as part of its efforts to crack down on money laundering. The new law gave federal regulators the power to revoke a bank's charter when it is convicted of moving dirty money. Regulators have never held a hearing on whether to revoke the charter of a bank convicted of a money-laundering-related violation. As TD Bank nears a "global resolution" in connection with its compliance failures, it's unlikely to buck the trend.
Ken Griffin’s Wellington hedge fund ekes out 1% gain in August - Billionaire investor Ken Griffin's suite of hedge funds at Citadel eked out small gains in what proved a volatile month in August as markets grappled with an emerging growth scare. Citadel's multistrategy Wellington fund gained about 1% in August, bringing its year-to-date return to 9.9%, according to a person familiar with the returns, who spoke anonymously because the performance numbers are private. All five strategies used in the flagship fund — commodities, equities, fixed income, credit and quantitative — were positive for the month, the person said. The Miami-based firm's tactical trading fund rose 1.5% last month and is up 14.5% on the year. Its equities fund, which uses a long/short strategy, edged up 0.8%, pushing its 2024 returns to 9.3%. Citadel declined to comment. The hedge fund complex had about $63 billion in assets under management as of Aug. 1. Volatility made a strong comeback in August as fears of a recession were rekindled by a weak July jobs report. On Aug. 5, the S&P 500 dropped 3%, its worst day since September 2022. Still, the market quickly bounced back, with the equity benchmark ending August up 2.3%. The S&P 500 is now ahead more than 15% in 2024. Overall, the hedge fund community recently moved into a defensive mode as macroeconomic uncertainty mounted. Hedge funds on net sold global equities for a seventh straight week recently, driven by sales of communication services plus financial and consumer staples stocks, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data.
Voss Capital wants to maximize shareholder value at International Money Express. How it may play out --International Money Express is an omnichannel money remittance services company. IMXI offers money transfer services digitally through a network of agent retailers in the United States, Canada, Spain, Italy and Germany. It works through company-operated stores, its mobile application and the company's websites. Its remittance services include a suite of ancillary financial processing solutions and payment services available in all 50 states in the United States, Puerto Rico and 13 provinces in Canada. It offers money remittance services to Latin America and the Caribbean countries, mainly Mexico and Guatemala. These services involve the movement of funds on behalf of an originating consumer for receipt by a designated beneficiary at a designated receiving location.Voss is a Houston, Texas-based hedge fund focused on underfollowed special situations. They are not traditional activists but have used activism as a tool in the past. Voss has engaged with the company's board and management team regarding ways to maximize shareholder value, including a possible sale of the company in a take-private transaction.International Money Express is a money remittance services provider which enables consumers to send money from the United States, Canada, Spain, Italy and Germany to Mexico, Guatemala and other countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. The company provides its services through a network of authorized agents located in various unaffiliated retail establishments, 118 company-operated stores and digitally via an app and its website. IMXI serves more than 4 million clients every month and has a goal of connecting families across borders, ensuring financial services are accessible to those who need them most. The company has roughly 20% market share in the top five Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) markets and has been continually seeking expansion into new markets. For example, IMXI has made recent acquisitions of La Nacional in 2022, which has a strong market position in remittances to the Dominican Republic and other LAC countries. The company also acquired I-Transfer in 2023, which established outbound remittances capabilities from Spain, Italy and Germany. It also snapped up a money services entity in the United Kingdom in 2024, which will give the company the opportunity to provide outbound remittances from the UK.This is not an opportunistic activist engagement for Voss. The firm initially reported holding IMXI in its Q2 2021 13F filing when the company was trading around $15 per share and it has held the stock ever since. Now, on Sept. 5, 2024, Voss filed a 13D and reported 5.64% ownership at an average cost of $19.14 per share, purchasing shares as high as $20.09 in the past 60 days.Global remittances service provision is a highly fragmented market with no single company commanding greater than 20% market share. Accordingly, there could be consolidation opportunities for IMXI with a strategic acquirer like Western Union, which also trades at a premium to IMXI. If IMXI stays independent, its growth plan of expansion into the digital and European markets would require heavy investment in people and resources, sacrificing short-term performance for long term growth. This is not the type of plan that plays well in the public markets. Instead, IMXI could be a great business to be acquired by a private equity firm that can help facilitate the company's growth plan while shielding it from the public markets, which have failed to fully value the company. You do not need to be a genius to see the allure of a company like this to private equity: A private equity firm bought it in 2007 and another one again in 2017.
Fed metric on bank reserves gives mixed liquidity signal =A key Federal Reserve indicator of scarcity of cash in the financial system is grabbing a lot of attention from market participants who are on the lookout for any evidence of stress. The peak level of daylight overdrafts has diverged from the average level, which is usually a warning sign of reserve scarcity. This time it may be different.
JPMorgan Chase is prepared to sue the U.S. government over Zelle scams - Buried in a roughly 200-page quarterly filing fromJPMorgan Chase last month were eight words that underscore how contentious the bank's relationship with the government has become.The lender disclosed that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could punish JPMorgan for its role in Zelle, the giant peer-to-peer digital payments network. The bank is accused of failing to kick criminal accounts off its platform and failing to compensate some scam victims, according to people who declined to be identified speaking about an ongoing investigation.In response, JPMorgan issued a thinly veiled threat: "The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation."The prospect of a bank suing its regulator would've been unheard of in an earlier era, according to policy experts, mostly because corporations used to fear provoking their overseers. That was especially the case for the American banking industry, which needed hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts to survive after irresponsible lending and trading activities caused the 2008 financial crisis, those experts say.But a combination of factors in the intervening years has created an environment where banks and their regulators have never been farther apart.Trade groups say that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks became easy targets for populist attacks from Democrat-led regulatory agencies. Those on the side of regulators point out that banks and their lobbyists increasingly lean on courts in Republican-dominated districts to fend off reform and protect billions of dollars in fees at the expense of consumers."If you go back 15 or 20 years, the view was it's not particularly smart to antagonize your regulator, that litigating all this stuff is just kicking the hornet's nest," said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research."The disparity between how ambitious [President Joe] Biden's regulators have been and how conservative the courts are, at least a subset of the courts, is historically wide," Marcus said. "That's created so many opportunities for successful industry litigation against regulatory proposals."Those forces collided this year, which started out as one of the most consequential for bank regulation since the post-2008 reforms that curbed Wall Street risk-taking, introduced annual stress tests and created the industry's lead antagonist, the CFPB.In the final months of the Biden administration, efforts from a half-dozen government agencies were meant to slash fees on credit card late payments, debit transactions and overdrafts, among other proposals. The industry's biggest threat was the Basel Endgame, a sweeping plan to force big banks to hold tens of billions of dollars more in capital for activities like trading and lending."The industry is facing an onslaught of regulatory and potential legislative change," Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan's consumer bank, warned investors in May.JPMorgan's disclosure about the CFPB probe into Zelle comes after years of grilling by Democrat lawmakers over financial crimes on the platform. Zelle was launched in 2017 by a bank-owned firm called Early Warning Services in response to the threat from peer-to-peer networks including PayPal.The vast majority of Zelle activity is uneventful; of the $806 billion that flowed across the network last year, only $166 million in transactions was disputed as fraud by customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the three biggest players on the platform.But the three banks collectively reimbursed just 38% of those claims, according to a July Senate report that looked at disputed unauthorized transactions.Banks are typically on the hook to reimburse fraudulent Zelle payments that the customer didn't give permission for, but usually don't refund losses if the customer is duped into authorizing the payment by a scammer, according to the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.A JPMorgan payments executive told lawmakers in July that the bank actually reimburses 100% of unauthorized transactions; the discrepancy in the Senate report's findings is because bank personnel often determine that customers have authorized the transactions.Amid the scrutiny, the bank began warning Zelle users on the Chase app to "Stay safe from scams" and added disclosures that customers won't likely be refunded for bogus transactions.JPMorgan declined to comment for this article.
Citi freed from an 11-year-old Fed enforcement action - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has terminated another enforcement action against Citigroup. The Federal Reserve has lifted a 2013 order relating to anti-money-laundering compliance issues, including in the megabank's now-defunct Banamex USA unit.
Warren urges OCC to cap Citigroup's growth --Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is urging the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to impose growth restrictions on Citigroup and consider forcing a breakup of the megabank if it doesn't adequately reform its long-troubled risk management and internal controls systems. In a letter to Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren urged the regulator to curtail the megabank's growth in response to its failure to improve its risk management programs.
Bank Of America Customers Report Widespread Outage, Zero Balances - Bank of America customers on Wednesday reported having problems accessing their bank accounts or that their account balances currently show $0. The outage started at around 12:30 p.m. E.T. on Wednesday, according to the tracking website Downdetector.About an hour later, more than 20,000 user complaints were submitted via the website. The Epoch Times' Jack Phillips reports that numerous Bank of America users have posted screenshots of empty account balances on social media. An Epoch Times staff member also reported not being able to log in to their Bank of America account.Some users on social media stated that Bank of America had not yet alerted them to the issue. Meanwhile, some users have reported having problems with Zelle, the digital payment system that is used by multiple banks and is owned by Bank of America and several other banks.It’s not clear how many ustomers were impacted or when the problem will be resolved.
FDIC vice chairman dissents on new merger guidance — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Vice Chairman Travis Hill opposed his agency's updated merger guidance, saying the new holistic metrics for measuring competition are overly broad and introduce undue uncertainty. Travis Hill says holistic metrics for assessing bank mergers introduce unnecessary unpredictability and deviate from established measures of competition. Hill also provides insight on the status of the stalled Basel endgame proposal.
BankThink: Bank merger policy has long needed a makeover — just not this one - By Karen Petrou -- Until this month, the Department of Justice hadn't finalized the adoption of new bank merger policy guidelines since 1995. Given the banking industry's rapid evolution during the last three decades, an update was certainly overdue. It unfortunately took the bank failures of 2023 to inspire action on a much-needed bank merger policy makeover, and regulators hastily charged ahead to propose sweeping reforms. Federal regulators have rewritten the rules for bank mergers in a way that will discourage the kinds of deals necessary to preserve healthy regional banks.
Fed's Bowman calls for a rethink of regulatory thresholds -The Federal Reserve's top official for community banking issues wants banking agencies to rethink how they tailor their regulatory requirements to match banks' internal and systemic risk. As part of a wide-ranging speech on community bank oversight, the Federal Reserve governor said business models should determine regulatory scrutiny rather than asset size.
What banks need to know about the CFPB's open banking rule - Banks are trying to get a grasp of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's financial data rights plan, from preparing for an influx of data requests from fintechs to meeting ongoing compliance. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is expected to release its open banking rule in a few weeks giving consumers control over their own financial data. But not all banks are prepared.
FDIC proposal sparks overreach debate between critics and supporters -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s proposed guidelines on corporate governance are problematic and could discourage talent from joining the boards of FDIC-regulated banks, state regulatory advocates and industry experts say. Tentative FDIC guidelines would impose stricter governance and risk management standards on banks exceeding $10 billion of assets, drawing concern over potential regulatory overreach and conflicts with state laws.
Regulators set new thresholds for TILA protections, appraisal requirements -Federal regulators raised the threshold at which certain financial products are subject to enhanced oversight standards by a smaller percentage than last year as inflation eased. The Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau moderately increased the minimum prices at which the Truth in Lending Act applies to loans and leases.
The FDIC is proposing an unnecessary rule that will kill index funds - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. wants to remove an exemption that allows index funds to invest freely in bank stocks. The result will be damaging to the investors who have come to rely on the funds' steady returns.
FHFA to tweak capital rule to give Home Loan Banks more liquidity =The Federal Housing Finance Agency has proposed relaxing limits to capital rules on interest-bearing deposit accounts that would give the Federal Home Loan Banks more flexibility to manage liquidity during times of stress. The Federal Housing Finance Agency has proposed a change to capital rules on interest-bearing deposit accounts that would increase the Federal Home Loan Banks' flexibility to manage liquidity during times of stress.
Fed fines bank over flood insurance; IT worker cited for mishandling documents --The Federal Reserve issued two enforcement actions, one against a bank in Montana, the other against a former information technology employee in Wyoming.
Gruenberg emphasizes 'vital' role of relationship banking - Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg Wednesday said data indicates relationship-driven lending practices remain vital to small-business lending and economic stability for banks of all sizes, even in an increasingly modern and competitive banking system. Gruenberg said an FDIC study proves relationship-driven lending practices remain crucial to small-business lending and economic stability, despite technological advancements in the banking industry.
OCC backs banks in fight against Illinois interchange law — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has filed a legal brief supporting the banking industry's challenge to Illinois' prohibition on interchange fees, stating the law interferes with federal banking authority. arguing the Interchange Fee Prohibition Act, would interfere with national banks' federal authority, fragment the national payment system and force banks to halt credit card usage in the state.
CFPB warns of inflated medical billing, hospital collection practices - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued an advisory opinion warning to debt collectors that they cannot rely only on information from a medical provider to collect a debt. Debt collectors are violating the law if they rely only on information from a medical provider to collect a debt and they cannot collect on medical debts that are covered by insurance or government programs such as Medicare or Medicaid, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said in a far-reaching advisory opinion.
CFPB warns of illegal debt collection tactics in healthcare -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Tuesday issued a consumer advisory to combat families being targeted by “illegal medical debt collection tactics.”The CFPB’s cited tactics violating federal law that debt collectors have employed when it comes to medical bills, including double billing for services covered by insurance; collecting amounts that exceed federal or state caps; falsifying or exaggerating charges; collecting on unsubstantiated bills; and misrepresenting payment obligations and consumers’ ability to contest bills.“Medical billing is often riddled with errors, including inflated or duplicative charges, fees for services the patient never received, or charges already paid,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in statement. Medical debt is one of the most common forms of debt represented on credit reports. The Biden administration earlier this year moved to ban medical debt from being included on credit reports.Medical debt advocacy groups like Undue Medical Debt praised this rule, noting that unlike other forms of debt, medical debt is not a good indicator of someone’s credit worthiness. While student loan debt or car loans are incurred knowingly with predetermination, people can’t predict when or how sick they will be in the future.The CFPB’s guidance advised that people receiving calls from debt collectors for medical bills should request a detailed list of charges sometimes called a “superbill,” negotiate the amount owed, submit a complaint with the CFPB if a debt collector is engaging in federally illegal tactics and sue collectors if these laws are being violated.“Hospitals and other healthcare providers in the United States are increasingly outsourcing medical billing and collection activities to third parties, such as ‘revenue cycle management’ firms, who may have legal obligations under the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act,” the CFPB’s advisory stated.
CRE Mess Not Letting Up: CMBS Delinquency Rates Jump in September as Office, Retail, and Lodging Deteriorate Further By Wolf Richter - Maybe Commercial Real Estate has hit “bottom” – as property giant Blackstone’s president and chief operating officer, Jonathan Gray said in January during an earnings call, which then was echoed by other CRE fund managers with lots of troubles in their portfolios. Or maybe it hasn’t. Parts of it are in deep trouble, such as office, retail, and lodging, including for structural reasons that have nothing to do with interest rates and cannot be cured with rate cuts. Multifamily is not in as bad a shape, though problems abound amid numerous defaults and oversupply in some markets (oversupply of housing is exactly what consumers need, so this is a good thing for the economy but not for lenders and investors). And industrial, such as warehouses and fulfillment centers, is in good shape, though the bloom has come off the rose too..Delinquency rates of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 8.4% in September, the highest since the peak years of the Great Recession from August 2011 through November 2013, according to data by Trepp today, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.The delinquency rate has now surpassed the spike that followed the American Oil Bust from 2014 through 2016, when hundreds of companies in the US oil and gas sector filed for bankruptcy, which devastated the Houston office market in 2016.The office sector of CRE faces a structural problem: A huge office glut after years of overbuilding amid massive hype about the “office shortage” that led big companies to hog office space as soon as it came on the market with the hope they’d grow into it. Now companies realize that they don’t need all this office space, and vast portions of it sits there vacant and for lease. Rate cuts will do nothing to address these structural issues, though they might help some borrowers refinance a maturing loan on a building with adequate occupancy. Mortgages are considered delinquent by Trepp when the borrower fails to make the interest payment after the 30-day grace period. A mortgage is not included here if the borrower continues to make the interest payment but fails to pay off the mortgage when it matures. This kind of repayment default, while the borrower is current on interest, would be on top of the delinquency rate here. Loans are pulled off the delinquency list if the interest gets paid, or if the loan is resolved through a foreclosure sale, generally involving big losses for the CMBS holders, or if a deal gets worked out between landlord and the special servicer that represents the CMBS holders, such as the mortgage being restructured or modified and extended. The delinquency rate for mortgages backed by mall properties spiked to 7.1% in September. Mall properties and other retail properties have been in trouble for years, as ecommerce is taking their business away, a phenomenon that we’ve called the Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown since 2016. And even the big mall landlords have all been defaulting on mall loans and letting the affected property go back to lenders. Countless retail chains, from Sears on down, filed for bankruptcy, and many were liquidated. Zombie malls sit abandoned until a developer can bulldoze the buildings and build housing on the property. This is the structural problem of brick-and-mortar malls, as Americans have changed their shopping patterns with a relentless shift to ecommerce. Department stores have been totally crushed, with only a handful of survivors that have all slashed their store counts of the years. No rate cut ever is going to stop ecommerce from continuing to take over a big part of the retail business. Exempt from the meltdown have been strip malls anchored by grocery stores, and service establishments and restaurants among the other tenants. The delinquency rate for mortgages backed by hotel and resort properties rose to 6.2% in September, after declines in the prior two months. During the pandemic, when many hotels were shut down for a while, the delinquency rate had spiked to 24% in June 2020. During the Great Recession, it topped out at 19% in September 2010.The structural problem in lodging is that many American and foreign tourists choose to spend the night at vacation rentals rather than hotels. In touristy cities, vacation rentals are everywhere and have taken a substantial part of the lodging business in those cities, often bypassing the hotel taxes, and hotels ended up with high vacancy rates. The nefarious effect in those touristy cities is that a portion of the housing stock was very quickly converted into lodging, which distorted the housing market even more. The delinquency rate of CMBS backed by mortgages for multifamily buildings was roughly unchanged in September, at 3.3%. During the Great Recession and Housing Bust it topped out at nearly 17% in early 2011. There have been a number of big mortgages that defaulted over the past two years, but CMBS reflect only a tiny portion of the multifamily mortgages. The US government is on the hook for over half ($1.1 trillion) of mortgages backed by multifamily buildings. The remainder is spread across private-sector lenders, including banks and insurance companies. Private-sector CMBS, CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), and ABS (asset backed securities) combined hold only 3.2%, or just $67 billion, of the multifamily mortgages. CMBS alone represent an even smaller portion. The delinquencies for mortgages backed by industrial buildings – warehouses, fulfillment centers, etc. – dipped to 0.3% in September, which is historically low. During the Great Recession, the delinquency rate topped out at over 12% from late 2011 to mid-2012. This industrial sector reflects the counterpart of ecommerce; it’s the brick-and-mortar part of ecommerce. All major ecommerce retailers and third-party platforms – Amazon, Walmart, Macy’s, Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, Costco, Kroger, and many others, and specialized retailers such as Wayfair, etc. – have set up ecommerce fulfillment operations across the US. During the pandemic, there was a massive boom in fulfillment centers which brought on a lot of supply. That boom has now faded, leaving the sector with some oversupply and rising but still relatively low vacancy rates – 6.1% in Q2, below the 10-year prepandemic average of 7%, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Asking rents, after spiking 50% from Q1 2020 through Q2 2023, haven’t moved much since Q2 2023. But ecommerce is stronger than ever, and there’s no structural collapse of demand as there’s in the office sector.
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High - From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled Down National multifamily vacancy stayed flat at 5.8%, the highest level on record since 2011. Supply side pressure was the main driver for the creep-up of vacancy since late 2022. However, the post-pandemic era features different demographic trends than the Great Financial Crisis. Strong household formation, steady wage growth, and the lowest homeownership rate over the past two years have collectively supported steady multifamily demand, which kept the market fundamentals in check and vacancy rates nearly unchanged from the prior quarter. Ninety-one basis points higher than its 10-year average between 2010 and 2019, the current vacancy level continued to pressure multifamily rent growth. Closing the third quarter at $1,845/unit, the national average asking rent remained $5 lower than its year-ago level. Despite marginal growth over the past two quarters, the losses incurred at the beginning of the 12-month cycle still need some time to recover as demand catches up with frictional oversupply. …Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 5.8% in Q3 2024, unchanged from an upwardly revised 5.8% in Q2, and up from the pandemic peak of 5.6% in Q1 2021. This is the highest vacancy rate since 2011. Note that asking rents are down slightly year-over-year. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities. Office Vacancy Rate Unchanged at Record High From Moody’s:The office sector held steady in Q3 2024 with a vacancy rate stable of 20.1% after three consecutive record-breaking quarters. The vacancy rate has slowly but steadily moved from 16.8% in Q4 2019 to 20.1% in Q3 2024 as demand weakened as a result of widespread WFH policies. While the flat vacancy rate in Q3 offers a quarter of decent news, it’s likely we’ll continue to see upward trends for the vacancy rate moving forward.With over 4.4 billion square feet of inventory in the sector, the upward drift of the vacancy rate has previously experienced quarters of vacancy stagnation since the pandemic. While expectations of a continued vacancy rate climb remain, quarters of adjustment are likely to occur. For example, we previously observed vacancy rates briefly drop and hold steady in 2021 when concessions were at their peak. Following four consecutive quarters of vacancy increases, passing a historic peak of 19.3% in Q4 2023, Q3 2024’s flat vacancy trend likely reflects an adjustment period in the market.Moody’s Analytics reported that the office vacancy rate was at 20.1% in Q3 2024, up from 19.2% in Q3 2023. This ties the record high in Q2 and is above the 19.3% peak during the S&L crisis.
'A house is more than just an asset': Walz and Vance clash in VP debate -- In their only vice presidential debate, Democratic nominee and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz talked about how housing should not be considered a "commodity," while Republican Sen. J.D. Vance tied housing shortages to illegal immigration and government regulation.
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2024 (just released). Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q2 2024. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.2% (now at 56.2%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.5% (now at 74.6%). These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This is a key reason existing home inventory levels are so low. The percent of loans over 6% bottomed in Q2 2022 at 7.2% and has increased to 15.8% in Q2 2024. As an aside, Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Research & Consulting, noted this morning: Consumers need mortgage rates to start with a 5 before they dive back into the housing market. We’ve been asking this question for a few years, and the responses haven’t shifted much. Back to the FHFA data base: Here are graphs on the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 27, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 186 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Last week’s incoming data showed an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, even as inflation continues to decline. As a result, mortgage rates were up modestly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing slightly to 6.14 percent,” . With this move, refinance application volume declined on the week but remains almost three-times as high as last year’s pace.” “The news for the week was that more homebuyers appear to be entering the market. Purchase application activity was up for the week and increased more than 9 percent compared to last year at this time. Inventories of both new and existing homes have been increasing over the course of 2024, meaning that potential buyers have properties to look at and now have somewhat lower mortgage rates leading to better affordability.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.14 percent from 6.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 9% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 19% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 1% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and mostly flat lined for two years - but has increased significantly recently as mortgage rates declined.
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.11% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in August, down from up 4.5% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ... Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate (table) As of August, 15 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Louisiana (-2.5%), Arkansas (-2.1%), D.C. (-2.0), Florida (-1.9%), Texas (-1.5%), and Idaho (-1.1%). For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 11 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida!
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 33.2% YoY -- On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 5.8% YoY, but still down 26.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.2% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 21, 2024
•Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 33.2% above year-ago levels. For the 46th consecutive week dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year, and this week continues a string of growth rates in the mid-30% range that started in April. There were more homes for sale this week than in any week since January 2020, pre-pandemic. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but falling mortgage rates could mean more buyers enter the market in the coming weeks.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale- jumped 8.0% this week compared to one year ago. As the recent easing of mortgage rates kept encouraging many sellers to return to the market, the year-over-year growth in new listings continued this week. With mortgage rates at their lowest level in nearly two years, eager sellers are taking the chance to get their home listed, hoping to catch some of the fall buyer activity. This trend is expected to continue as rates ease further and more sellers are ‘unlocked’.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 46th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.9% YoY --On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.9% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 28, 2024
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 31.9% above year-ago levels For the 47th consecutive week dating to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year over year, and this week continues a string of growth rates in the mid-30% range that started in April. There were more homes for sale this week than in any week since January 2020, pre-pandemic. Much of the inventory buildup is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but falling mortgage rates could mean more buyers enter the market in the coming weeks.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—jumped 1.7% this week compared with a year ago The number of new listings has continued to increase, though at a slower pace. This slowdown isn’t entirely surprising, as a rate cut has been widely anticipated, eager sellers may have already acted by listing their homes in the weeks leading up to the Fed’s announcement. Looking ahead, with another rate cut expected before the end of 2024, we anticipate that more sellers will feel “unlocked,” as the prevailing mortgage rates come into closer alignment with their current rates.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
Inventory was up year-over-year for the 46th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Housing Sept 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 37.2%), and down 23.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 24.0%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in August From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion. The August figure is 4.1 percent above the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,642.2 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised July estimate of $1,645.8 billion. ... In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $489.8 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $488.2 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 8.2% below the peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.5% below the peak in June 2024. Public construction spending at the peak. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 2.7%. Non-residential spending is up 3.6% year-over-year.Public spending is up 7.8% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations for 0.1% increase in spending.
Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.77 million SAAR in September -Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales up Slightly on SAAR basis; Q3 Volume Down 1.9% (pay site). Sales over the past six months have been mostly in negative territory even though inventory continued to rise. Affordability and a slowdown in fleet orders have been the bane to growth. September saw the continuation of gains in the most affordable segments, but it was more than offset by weakness among higher priced vehicles – a theme of the past two quarters. (Hurricane Helene also slightly dampened deliveries in September.) Despite downturns in Q2 and Q3 of 0.5% and 1.9%, respectively, Q1’s strong 4.9% increase was enough to keep year-to-date volume through September above the year-ago total, albeit less than 1%. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for August (red). Sales in September (15.77 million SAAR) were up 3.7% from August, and up 0.5% from September 2023.Sales in August were slightly above the consensus forecast. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in September - This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 477 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 477 thousand SAAR in September, down from 501 thousand in August, and down 4.7% from 501 thousand SAAR in September 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.
ISM® Manufacturing index Unchanged at 47.2% in September -- The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 47.2% in September, unchanged from 47.2% in August. The employment index was at 43.9%, down from 46.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 46.1%, up from 44.6%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.2% September 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September, matching the figure recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 44.6 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (49.8 percent) is 5 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 44.8 percent. The Prices Index went into contraction (or ‘decreasing’) territory for the first time this year, registering 48.3 percent, down 5.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 54 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the 43.6 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 43.9 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from August’s figure of 46 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in September. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.9% in September --The ISM® Services index was at 54.9%, up from 51.5% last month. The employment index decreased to 48.1%, from 50.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.9% September 2024 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® The Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, which is the highest reading since February 2023 and indicates sector expansion for the 49th time in 52 months. “In September, the Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 51.5 percent. The reading in September marked the seventh time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in September, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 53.3 percent recorded in August, indicating a third month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index expanded to 59.4 percent in September, 6.4 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 53 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the first time in three months; the reading of 48.1 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 50.2 percent recorded in August. The PMI was well above expectations.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 225,000 -The DOL reported:In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,750 to 225,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.0 million in August --From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 8.0 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.3 million. Total separations changed little at 5.0 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) continued to trend down and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in August to 8.04 million from 7.71 million in July. The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Increased 143,000 in September -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 143,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% Private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ...“Stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But their premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January.” This was above the consensus forecast of 110,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 145,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.
September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Employment Situation - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 254 thousand in September. Private payrolls increased by 223 thousand, and public payrolls increased 32 thousand.
Payrolls for July and August were revised up 72 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In September, the year-over-year change was 2.44 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the annual benchmark revision will lower the year-over-year change).The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.7% in September, from 62.7% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.2% from 60.0% in August (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August.This was well above consensus expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 jobs, combined.
September: very much a “soft landing” jobs report. But will the Fed use this to fall behind the curve again? -- Especially in view of the relative weakness in the jobs report for the past few months, my focus continues to be on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether there is further decline towards a recession. For this month at least, the verdict was clear: both the Establishment and Household Surveys pointed to “soft landing.” Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 254,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 223,000. Government jobs increased by 31,000.
- For a change, there were *upward* revisions to the last two months. July was revised upward by 55,000, and August by 17,000, for a net increase of 72,000. This breaks with the pattern from nearly every month in the past 18 months of a steady drumbeat of downward net revisions.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an increase of 430,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series has only risen by 314,000 jobs, which remains consistent with recession, as it has for months. On the other hand, it is an improvement from last month, where there was an actual YoY decline.
- The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% for the second month in a row, to 4.1%, which also means the “Sahm rule” recession indicator, for the first time in three months, is no longer in effect.
- The U6 underemployment rate fell -0.2% to 7.7%, still 1.3% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose another 60,000 to 5.97 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 40.7 hours. This remains down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is only 0.1 hour below its 18 month high.
- Manufacturing jobs declined -7,000.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -6,500.
- Truck driving declined -700.
- Construction jobs increased 25,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 2,000 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 21,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another -13,800, and are down about -500,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -322,000 to 2,146,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.08, or +0.3%, to $30.33, for a YoY gain of +3.9%. This continues the trend of deceleration from their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022, and was less than 0.1% higher than its post-pandemic low set in July. Most importantly, though, this continues to be significantly higher than the 2.6% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.2%, and is up 1.2% YoY, in trend for the past 12+ months.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was rose 0.4%, and is up 5.2% YoY. These have been slowly decelerating since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, and that trend continued this month, which was tied for the post-pandemic low. Nevertheless, with the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 2.6%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Professional and business employment rose 17,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since May 2023, but earlier this year had resumed increasing again. As of this month, they are only higher YoY by 0.5% - a very low increase that has *only* happened in the past 80+ years immediately before, during, or after recessions. On the other hand, there has been no meaningful further YoY deterioration in the past 12 months.
- The employment population ratio rose 0.2% to 60.2%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate also remained steady at 62.7%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. The prime 25-54 age participation rate declined -0.1% to 83.8%, vs. 84.0% in July, which was the highest rate during the entire history of this series except for the late 1990s tech boom.
SUMMARY: Last month I wrote that “Along with the big downward revisions to the last several months, this month’s report is the first time that there is substantial evidence that the jobs market may have moved past a ‘soft landing’ into a hard slowdown that could easily tip over into outright declines by the end of the year.” This month’s report completely reversed that. Not only were the headline numbers all good, but there were positive revisions to the past several months. Average middle and working class workers continue to see good wage and hourly increases in pay, with real inflation-adjusted increases to buying power. And the headline Household survey employment number joined in the good news for a change.Not everything was rosy. To reiterate what I wrote last month, “manufacturing seems at long last to have rolled over,” with the third decline in four months. The sector has shed -0.4% of its total so far this year. Trucking continues to slowly shed jobs as well. This isn’t recessionary compared with the last 30 years, but it is weak. At the further edge of the spectrum, those who haven’t looked actively but want a job now increased close to a 24 month high.But the construction sector continues to do well, including - surprisingly - residential construction jobs, despite the downturn in housing construction metrics. Short duration unemployment declined, mirroring the recent downturn in initial claims.To reiterate my opening statement, for this month at least the “soft landing” scenario is fully intact. If there is a concern, it is that the Fed, which has been behind the ball for about 3 years, will take this as a sign that it can maintain high interest rates, despite the fact that it has to make policy for the jobs sector one year from now, not for last month.
Comments on September Employment Report by Bill McBride - The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%.Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment decreased 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation decreased in September to 83.8% from 83.9% in August.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the previous month. Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in September. From the BLS report:"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million in September. This measure is up from 4.1 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 million from 4.83 million in August. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.7% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.63 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.53 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.This is above pre-pandemic levels.Through September 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 45 consecutive months, putting the current streak tied in 4th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).Summary: The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. This was a strong employment report.
CVS layoffs to affect nearly 3,000 employees — CVS Health is planning to lay off nearly 3,000 employees nationwide, a company spokesperson confirmed Monday. CVS spokesperson Mike DeAngelis said in a statement to Nexstar’s WPRI that the pharmacy giant will be eliminating 2,900 jobs, citing “continued disruption, regulatory pressures and evolving consumer needs and expectations.” “It is critical that we remain competitive and operate at peak performance,” DeAngelis added. He said the layoffs make up 1 percent of the company’s overall workforce, and it will be primarily corporate roles that are cut. “The reductions will not impact front-line jobs in our stores, pharmacies and distribution centers,” DeAngelis said. DeAngelis said the job cuts are part of a $2 billion cost-saving initiative designed to not only reduce expenses, but also invest in technologies to enhance efficiency and workflow. The layoffs come as the business has been facing business challenges. “Before taking this step, we prioritized finding cost-saving everywhere we could, including closing open job postings,” DeAngelis explained. “Decisions on which positions to eliminate were extremely difficult and do not diminish the value that impacted colleagues have brought to the company.” DeAngelis said the vast majority of impacted employees will be notified this week, although he stressed that the layoffs are “company-wide and not isolated to a single corporate office.”
15-year-old in Mississippi sentenced to life in prison without parole for killing her mother On September 21, a jury in Rankin, Mississippi, sentenced 15-year-old Carly Gregg to life in prison without parole for fatally shooting her mother and wounding her step-father last March. The jury found the teenager guilty on all charges against her, which were first-degree murder, attempted murder and tampering with evidence, rejecting the defense’s plea of insanity. The case went to trial after the defense rejected a plea deal with a 40-year prison sentence. Gregg was only 14 at the time of the event but was tried as an adult under Mississippi law, which automatically tries children 13 and older as adults for certain crimes, including acts committed with a deadly weapon. The United States has the shameful distinction of being the only country which sentences children to life without parole, a practice that is condemned by the United Nations Conventions on the Rights of Children as cruel and unusual punishment. While there have been limited reforms curtailing heavy sentencing against minors in the last 20 years, including ending the death penalty against children in 2005, juvenile life without parole remains legal and is practiced in 25 states. Moreover, the United States’ routine practice of trying children as adults, especially following bipartisan tough-on-crime laws in the 1990s, signifies a social retrogression. The first juvenile court was established in the US in 1899 under the recognition that children were socially and developmentally different from adults and would benefit from rehabilitation efforts. Modern neuroscience and behavioral studies of youth offenders support these ideas. In the case of Carly Gregg, the youth had a documented history of mental health issues, including depression, which she was receiving treatment for in the months prior to the shooting. Dr. Andrew Clark, who testified on behalf of the defense, stated that Gregg “was having mood issues, eating disorder issues, cutting herself, hearing voices and sleeping difficulty all leading up to January of 2024.” A week prior to the shooting, she was put on a new antidepressant medication, Lexapro, which Clark said aggravated her symptoms. Gregg’s step-father, Heath Smylie, who was shot by Gregg in the shoulder, testified that the girl was in a state of severe distress when she shot him, and he believed she did not recognize him. “She was screaming out of her mind scared,” he said, “It was like she had seen a demon or something, and my first thought was, there was an intruder somewhere, and she thought she was after somebody else.” He maintains that he is not afraid of his step-daughter, and speaks to her on the phone regularly. The apparent proximate motive of the shooting was Gregg’s mother, Ashley Smylie, confiscating a number of items from Gregg’s bedroom, including marijuana paraphernalia. A friend of Gregg’s was concerned about her drug use and sent her mother a text message earlier in the day. Gregg’s step-father testified that the mother and daughter had a loving relationship, and there appears to have been no prior history of violence on Gregg’s part. Whatever the immediate causes of the horrific incident, one has to search deeper than the superficial and plainly stupid narrative put forward by the prosecution. Speaking after the trial, district attorney Bubba Bramlett stated, “Carly Gregg is evil. That’s not easy to say, but the truth of the matter is sometimes evil comes in young packages, small packages—and this is one of those cases.” During the trial, prosecutor Kathryn White Newman cited the “secret life” of the teenager as alleged evidence of her dangerous character, including her use of burner phones, vape pens, her self-harm and cheating in school. The majority of American youth would fall under suspicion for homicidal inclinations by these criteria. The daily frequency of shootings in the United States testifies to the fact that these horrors are not fundamentally rooted in individuals but have social causes, including the abysmal state of mental health care in the United States, as well as the epidemic of depression and anxiety among children. The 2024 report by Mental Health America found that 20 percent of American youth ages 12-17 had at least one major depressive episode in the past year, over half of whom (56 percent) did not receive any treatment. Over 3.4 million youth, 13 percent, are experiencing serious suicidal thoughts.
Mass school closures revealed as Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson works with CTU to suppress opposition --Mayor Brandon Johnson asked Chicago Public Schools (CPS) CEO Pedro Martinez to resign last week over the CEO’s refusal to take on short-term loans to fund pensions and raises for educators. Martinez has refused to resign and his ouster has now become a flashpoint as divisions within the ruling class come into the open over how to handle the district’s upcoming “fiscal cliff,” suppress the wage demands by educators who have been working without a contract since July 1 and impose savage cost-cutting measures. Johnson’s meeting with Martinez and his request for the latter’s resignation was preceded by revelations by the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) of the existence of a CPS “space consolidation” analysis. According to an email sent by CTU leaders to the entire membership on September 13, “over 100 schools are being analyzed for possible cuts, closures, or consolidations.” Martinez and other district leaders have denied any plans are in place to close schools. Martinez wrote, in an email sent out to the families of CPS students, “Let me reiterate: I will not recommend that any schools be closed during my leadership of CPS.” However, given the recent announcement of the closure of 21 public schools in Seattle, the existence of a CPS school closure analysis should be seen by Chicago educators and parents as a serious threat, and any denials by district leaders should be treated with contempt. Just north of Chicago, suburban Evanston/Skokie School District 55 leaders presented a deficit reduction plan at a September 16 board meeting that includes school closures, layoffs and bus route eliminations in order to stave off fiscal insolvency. Under state law, the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE) has the power to dissolve school boards and install an “Independent Authority” to take over the affairs of a school district in such situations. CTU Vice President Jackson Potter told Chalkbeat the space analysis included a list of about 70 schools that could be consolidated with another 70 schools. Budget slides obtained by the union raise the possibility of staff furloughs to address the district’s nearly $1 billion budget shortfall for next year, which currently does not include any funds for educator raises. At a “public bargaining session” between CPS and CTU on Tuesday at Cameron Elementary, Potter again raised the issue of the school closing list, asking district leaders whether they supported or rejected it. CPS Chief Education Officer replied in the manner of a mealy-mouthed bureaucrat, absurdly claiming that the analysis was just part of a “discussion” between the board and district leaders. She said: As part of our work leading towards the development of the strategic plan, the district leadership and the board collaborated in solidifying critical components of the plan such as North Star Vision for the students, what the quality of the daily student experience needs to look like, what the new school funding model for our schools needs to look like, because you know we moved towards a new budget model. This process did include the analysis of multiple sets of data, and over a period of time, this information was shared confidentially for the discussion between the leadership and the board for discussion purposes only. I want to make it very clear that this referenced list was never made as a recommendation nor was ever considered for any follow up or next steps by anyone, including the five-year strategic plan. So, I would like to make myself clear here as a representative from the district, there never was a plan to close schools. Currently there is no plan to close a school, and these data discussions were really part of conducting an analysis, looking at all possible opportunities, as any organization does as part of making critical decisions. Other district leaders have been more candid. Chalkbeat reported that CPS Chief Operating Officer Charles Mayfield said “a conversation needs to happen” in regard to schools with low enrollment, because “everything has a cost to it.” According to the latest five-year CPS Educational Facilities Master Plan, issued in 2023, the district deems 293 out of 497 schools as underutilized, which it defines as less than 70 percent of the building being used for school operations. The 179 schools labeled as “efficient” enroll between 70 percent and 110 percent of their capacity, while schools are only labeled as “overcrowded” if they are packed to the gills at over 110 percent of their capacity. A state moratorium on school closings by CPS expires on January 15 of the coming year.
Banishment of over 110 protesters by UCSC protester bans challenged in new legal complaint - Lawyers representing pro-Palestinian students, faculty and staff barred from University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) campus last year have filed a complaint for injunctive and declaratory relief against the Board of Regents, calling for an immediate halt to the banishment of protesters against the Gaza genocide from campuses. In May, 112 peaceful protesters were arrested on UCSC campus by riot police. This was carried out under the pseudo-legal guise of Section 626.4 of the California Penal Code, which allows officials to revoke access to campus for up to 14 days “whenever there is reasonable cause to believe that such person has willfully disrupted the orderly operation of such campus or facility” with the caveat that all those accused be given the chance of a hearing. All protesters were charged with misdemeanors under the same law. To date, however, there has been no arraignment to formally hear the charges against them which is effectively being held over the protesters. The complaint detailed the significant damage to those persecuted by the administration, noting that “individuals lost access to housing, jobs, classes, school resources, healthcare, and other campus services.” Students even missed exams and failed courses because UC prevented them from returning to campus. Crackdowns have continued at the UC system, as throughout the country, into the fall Semester. UC administrators purchased an extensive list of “military equipment” to be used against protesters last month, including drones, “breaching tools,” grenade launchers with sponge and chemical rounds, and more. This nationwide crackdown has been carried out with full bipartisan support from the White House down to the California Democratic Party. The ACLU, which is representing the protesters, is seeking a court injunction to prevent UC Santa Cruz from banning protesters from campus without proper hearings or proof of “substantial and material threat of significant injury to persons or property” required under the law. The lawsuit reads: Defendants did not first provide notice or an opportunity to be heard as required by law, and they made no individualized findings to justify such an extreme, punitive measure. The impact of being instantaneously banished from campus was devastating. Individuals lost access to housing, jobs, classes, school resources, healthcare, and other campus services. This action challenges the unconstitutional and unlawful manner in which Defendants summarily banned Plaintiffs from the UCSC campus. Defendants’ conduct violates not only Plaintiffs’ due process, free speech, and free assembly rights under both federal and state law, but also the plain text and procedural safeguards specifically prescribed by Section 626.4. The complaint points to the blatantly illegal actions taken by the UCSC administration, who “indiscriminately banned more than 110 people arrested by UCSC police while dispersing a protest on May 31, 2024. The campus police, acting under Defendants’ direction, handed out identical one-page Section 626.4 Notices to arrestees.” A hearing for the preliminary injunction has been set for November 19 according to Chessie Thacher, a senior attorney with the ACLU of Northern California.
Pennsylvania professor fired for opposing Gaza genocide -- Anthropology professor Maura Finkelstein was fired in May from her position at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, the culmination of a campaign against the professor launched by Zionists outside the college and the Biden-Harris Department of Education which fingered her for “anti-Israel” activism—social media posts she made opposing Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Professor Maura Finkelstein She had been previously suspended in January, after the spring academic term had already begun, suddenly leaving her students without their professor. Finkelstein, who is Jewish, is believed to be the first tenured faculty member fired for constitutionally-protected free speech opposing Israel’s genocide—in her case speech that took place outside the classroom, thereby trampling on both her academic freedom and her basic democratic rights. Her removal is intended to intimidate and silence all those opposing American imperialism and its Israeli proxy’s crimes. It is part of a purge of America’s colleges and universities and assault on the democratic rights of students and faculty spearheaded by the Biden-Harris administration. Finkelstein is the author of the book The Archive of Loss: Lively Ruination in Mill Land Mumbai, published by Duke University Press in 2019, which considers the lives of workers in a de-industrialized city in India, as well as a number of academic articles, reviews and essays. Muhlenberg College has raised no objections to her scholarship, teaching, or service to the institution, which constitute the basis of academic employment. She was a tenured professor with the title associate professor of anthropology. Last week, on September 24, the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) sent a letter to Muhlenberg College President Kathleen Harring stating that it would be opening an investigation into the firing of Finkelstein over her pro-Palestinian and anti-Zionist views. Finkelstein started to make public statements against Israel’s policies soon after the Hamas uprising of October 7, 2023, took place. She quickly became a target of Zionist harassment. In response to her open criticism of Israel, a Change.org petition was created on October 29, 2023, by right-wing Muhlenberg alumni which called for her removal. The petition was promoted by backers of Israel’s genocide, who equate any opposition with antisemitism. The Change.org petition accused Finkelstein of “appalling actions.” The three offenses she was accused of were “1. Glorifying Hamas, the Terrorists, and Vilifying Israel: [sic], 2. Classroom Bias, Hate Speech, and Targeted Aggression to Jewish Students, 3. Cyberbullying students with her partner.” Justifying their first charge, the authors of the Change.org petition cited some lines of text which Finkelstein had written in response to an article on Muhlenberg’s student paper, The Weekly. Finkelstein’s comments were not a glorification of Hamas, but rather sought to set the October 7 attack in historical context, as any serious scholar should. Finkelstein wrote “these are not unprovoked attacks. Any form of resistance is evacuated of historical context and framed by Israel and the US as terrorist attacks.” The second offense that the petition laid out is just as absurd. It charged Finkelstein with “classroom bias, hate speech, and targeted aggression to Jewish students,” and cites, as its only evidence, an email in which Finkelstein again reiterated that the October 7 attack emerged out of history: “There is no doubt that Saturday’s surprise attacks are devastating. We must mourn all civilian deaths… But we cannot mourn without also acknowledging the fact that Israel is a settler colonial state.” Finally, the third charge leveled against Finkelstein was something that she didn’t even do. The alleged “cyberbullying” she was “enabling” consisted of Finkelstein’s partner, Zein Murib, responding to commenters on Finkelstein’s Instagram defending her against claims that she was spreading hate. After the petition was created, Finkelstein reported that she and other faculty were sent thousands of bot-generated emails which consisted of harassment and calling for her to be removed for her views. These right-wing, Zionist attacks on Finkelstein were soon backed by the Biden-Harris administration. In January of this year, letters from the US Department of Education were sent to various universities detailing intent to open investigations over rampant “antisemitism” on the campuses via Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Muhlenberg, along with a number of other universities, received these letters. The letters came in the aftermath of the forced resignations of University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill, Harvard President Claudine Gay and congressional grilling of Massachusetts Institute of Technology President Sally Kornbluth after the Biden Administration, with the full-backing of Republicans, launched a witch-hunt against them for allegedly failing to curtail “antisemitism” on their campuses.
Education Dept. extends deadline for defaulted student loan borrowers to get current - The U.S. Department of Education has extended the deadline for its Fresh Start program for defaulted student loan borrowers until Wednesday morning, according to an agency spokesperson. Borrowers who apply for the limited opportunity will be returned to good standing on their loans, and able to avoid the impact of delinquency and default. The original deadline for the Fresh Start program was Sept. 30, but an issue on a website of theirs led the department to decide to give borrowers until Wednesday at 3 a.m. ET to apply for it, the spokesperson told CNBC. The 12-month "on-ramp period" still expires on Sept. 30. Since the pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments ended, the Education Department has shielded borrowers from the worst consequences of missed payments, including collection efforts and negative credit reporting. Borrowers interested in applying for the Fresh Start program can learn more at StudentAid.gov. There were around 7.5 million federal student loan borrowers in default, the Education Department said in 2022, when it launched its mulligan program. That grim figure led to comparisons with the 2008 mortgage crisis.
State judge strikes down Georgia abortion ban -A judge in Georgia's Fulton County struck down the state's six-week abortion ban Monday, allowing the procedure to resume and making it legal up to 22 weeks of pregnancy. The state law was signed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in 2019 but didn't take effect until July 2022 after it faced a legal challenge and the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade. . Judge Robert McBurney wrote in his ruling Monday that a review of "of our higher courts' interpretations of 'liberty' demonstrates that liberty in Georgia includes in its meaning, in its protections, and in its bundle of rights the power of a woman to control her own body, to decide what happens to it and in it, and to reject state interference with her healthcare choices." "That power is not, however, unlimited," McBurney continued. "When a fetus growing inside a woman reaches viability, when society can assume care and responsibility for that separate life, then — and only then — may society intervene." The judge wrote that the law's fundamental alteration to previous state law was "its extreme narrowing of the window of time within which women have the legal ability to end a pregnancy from roughly twenty weeks (i.e., viability) down to a mere six weeks, a point at which many — if not most — women are completely unaware or at best unsure if they are pregnant." The case stemmed from a lawsuit filed by SisterSong Women of Color Reproductive Justice Collective and other plaintiffs in 2019 soon after Kemp signed it into law. As it faced the legal challenge, in 2022, McBurney ruled that year that the law violated the U.S. Constitution in 2022 and struck it down. The Georgia Supreme Court, however, soon took up the case and allowed it to remain in effect.
California sues hospital over emergency abortion care --California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) this week announced a lawsuit against Providence Saint Joseph Medical Center, alleging the hospital refused to provide an abortion to a woman despite her pregnancy presenting an immediate threat to her life and no longer being viable. Bonta’s complaint cited the case of Anna Nusslock, who was 15 weeks pregnant with twins when her water broke after experiencing a week of pain and bleeding. After going to the emergency department at Providence Saint Joseph in Eureka, Calif., Nusslock was diagnosed with previable preterm premature rupture of membranes and informed her twins would not make it. The California attorney general’s suit states that Nusslock needed a dilation and evacuation (D&E) in order to prevent complications resulting from her diagnosis and pregnancy that was no longer viable. “Instead of providing the emergency medical care she needed, Providence Hospital offered her a bucket and towels,” the complaint reads. The doctors at Providence allegedly told Nusslock that hospital policy prevented them from providing a D&E as long as her twins had detectable heart tones. One of the doctors is alleged to have told Nusslock she would hemorrhage and die if she attempted to drive to another hospital, in this case the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center. She was ultimately instructed to drive to another hospital roughly 20 minutes away, being given a bucket by hospital staff before she left. Nusslock was “actively hemorrhaging” by the time she arrived at the next facility. Bonta is accusing Providence of violating California’s Emergency Services Act as well as the Unruh Civil Rights Act, which prohibits businesses from discriminating against people on the basis on age, race, sex, disability, national origin and other factors.
Study finds few outpatient antibiotic prescriptions for kids are optimal -A study today in JAMA Network Open found that less than one-third of outpatient antibiotics prescribed for children in Tennessee were consistent with guidelines for antibiotic choice and duration.Conducted by researchers with Vanderbilt University Medical Center, the Tennessee Department of Health, and the University of Utah, the cross-sectional study of nearly 500,000 children in Tennessee found that only 31.4% of the antibiotics prescribed in outpatient settings were optimal for choice and duration. Furthermore, 39% of pediatric antibiotic prescriptions were for diagnoses that rarely require antibiotics.The study authors say the findings highlight several areas where antimicrobial stewardship interventions could help boost optimal prescribing.Using data from IQVIA's Longitudinal Prescription Claims and Medical Database, the researchers examined clinical encounters for patients younger than 20 years with at least one oral antibiotic prescription from January 1 to December 31, 2022. To assess whether the prescriptions were optimal for choice and duration, they categorized each diagnosis using a 3-tier antibiotic appropriateness system and compared prescriptions for tier 1 (antibiotics nearly always required) and tier 2 (antibiotics sometimes required) diagnoses with published national guidelines. An antibiotic was deemed optimal if it was consistent with guideline recommendations for first-line antibiotic choice and duration for the specific diagnosis. Antibiotics prescribed for tier 3 diagnoses (rarely ever required) were deemed suboptimal for both.The study authors note that while previous research by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates roughly 50% of all pediatric outpatient antibiotics prescribed are unnecessary, few studies have looked at optimal antibiotic choice and duration, which are important elements of antimicrobial stewardship."Outpatient antimicrobial stewardship is of particular importance, and identifying factors in suboptimal antibiotic prescribing will allow health departments and stewardship programs in high-prescribing states to target, design, and implement future interventions," they wrote.
COVID-19 hospitalization remains higher among older adults --New data published yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) show older adults continue to be hospitalized for COVID-19 at a much higher rate than other age groups.The data analyzed by the COVID-Net Surveillance team, which includes researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health departments, show that cumulative rates of COVID-19 hospitalization from October 2023 through April 2024 were the lowest for all adult age groups during the October-to-April surveillance period since the first year of the pandemic. An estimated 40,761 COVID-19–associated hospitalizations occurred during the surveillance period, 38,900 of them in adults ages 18 and older.But adults ages 65 and older accounted for 70% of all adult COVID-associated hospitalizations, and hospitalization rates were highest among those ages 75 and older, with nearly one COVID-associated hospitalization for every 100 persons. Relative to adults ages 18 to 49 years, cumulative hospitalization rates among adults aged 65 to 74 and over 75 years during the surveillance period were 7.3 and 24.1 times as high, respectively."These findings suggest that COVID-19–associated hospitalization among adults aged ≥65 years remains a public health concern," the study authors wrote.
Study: Prolonged antibiotics common in COVID patients with and without sepsis --Prolonged antibiotics were common in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with and without sepsis during the first 33 months of the pandemic, despite low rates of proven bacterial infection, researchers reported today in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology.For the study, researchers from Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women's Hospital analyzed electronic health record data for patients hospitalized for community-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections at five Massachusetts hospitals from March 2020 through November 2022. Their primary aim was to describe prolonged antibiotic use (4 or more days of antibiotics within the first week following admission) in COVID-19 patients presenting with sepsis, which is primarily caused by bacterial infections and typically treated with antibiotics but can be triggered by viral pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2.Of the 431,017 hospitalizations during the study period, 21,563 (5%) had COVID-19, and 4,769/21,563 (20.5%) presented with sepsis. Prolonged antibiotics were prescribed for 48.7% of COVID-19 patients with sepsis and 17.1% without sepsis, despite low rates of positive bacterial cultures on admission (15.0% vs 6.3%, respectively). While quarterly rates of prolonged antibiotics declined between the first and second pandemic quarters for both sepsis (66.8% to 43.9%) and no-sepsis (31.8% to 24.4%) groups, there was no significant change in prolonged antibiotic use from the second quarter through November 2022 in either group, with quarterly adjusted odds ratios of 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99 to 1.05) and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1.03), respectively.The study authors say the elevated ongoing rates of prolonged antibiotic prescribing for COVID-19 patients likely reflects concerns about possible bacterial co-infections.
Study: COVID-19 vaccination protects against serious cardiovascular disease -Full vaccination against COVID-19 protects recipients from serious cardiovascular disease linked to COVID-19, according to a new study in the European Heart Journal. The findings come from a review of more than 8 million adults in Sweden who were followed up in national healthcare registers from the end of December 2020—when COVID-19 vaccination began—until the end of 2022.Among the 8,070,674 adults included in the study, 88.5% received at least one dose of vaccine, 86.9% at least two, and 67.9% three or more. There were 1,668,508 new cases of COVID-19; 40.3% occurred before the first dose of vaccination, 3.7% between the first and second dose, 34.3% between the second and third dose, and 21.7% after the third dose.Outcomes included inflammation of the cardiac muscle or the pericardium, cardiac arrhythmia, heart failure, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and stroke.Overall, vaccination was associated with decreased risks of cardiovascular disease by about 20% to 30% compared to no vaccination.The authors note, however, that some cardiovascular effects have been seen after individual doses of the vaccine, especially among older men.There was a 17% higher risk of extrasystoles, or extra heart beats, after dose one and 22% after dose two. While the overall the risk of stroke was lower in vaccinated people, there was an increased risk of TIA."It should be noted that for outcomes showing slightly increased risks (myopericarditis, TIA, and extrasystoles), the incidence rates were generally lower than for the other outcomes that showed decreased risks," the authors said.
Non-native English speakers had lower COVID vaccine uptake, data suggest --US residents aged 6 months or older with a primary language other than English had lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake and delays in receiving primary vaccination and booster doses than native English speakers, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open.HealthPartners researchers in Minnesota used electronic health records to retrospectively assess vaccine coverage and time to receipt of COVID-19 primary vaccines and first-generation (monovalent, or single-strain) and bivalent (two-strain) boosters among more than 1 million patients from December 2020 to June 2023 at a single healthcare system. Of all patients, 53.7% were female, 58.2% were White, 14.7% were multiracial, 10.3% were Black, 5.5% were Asian, 5.0% were Hispanic, and 4.9% were younger than 5 years."More time spent unvaccinated or undervaccinated means longer duration of risk for poor outcomes from COVID-19, and delays in vaccination may be partly responsible for some of the disparities noted in morbidity and mortality among racial and ethnic groups in the US," the investigators wrote.
Vague symptoms, overlap with other illnesses complicate long-COVID diagnosis --Today in Nature Communications, Canadian researchers highlight diagnostic challenges with the World Health Organization's clinical definition of long COVID, with a studyshowing that over a third of previously infected emergency department (ED) patients met the criteria—as did a fifth of those who reported no history of infection. And a related systematic review and meta-analysis by Australian researchers finds that 51% of long-COVID patients also met the diagnostic criteria for myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). The research was published yesterday in the Journal of Infection. ME/CFS is a complex, long-term illness characterized by extreme fatigue aggravated by physical or mental activity. For the first study, a team led by Universite Laval researchers in Quebec compared the percentage of ED patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection who satisfied long-COVID requirements 3, 6, and 12 months later with those without confirmed infection during the same period."In 2024, fewer people are seeking or being offered diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 now that the virus is less virulent and endemic," the study authors wrote. "As a result, people who were never tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection may develop WHO PCC [post-COVID-19 condition] criteria without ever being diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2."A total of 58.5% of 6,723 eligible ED patients had tested positive for COVID-19 at least 3 months before, 50.6% were women, and the average age was 54.4 years. Of COVID-19 survivors, 38.9% reported at least one long-COVID symptom at 3 months, compared with 20.7% of those who tested negative. Infected women reported long-COVID symptoms more often than men (45.5% vs 32.8%). By 6 months, 38.2% of infected patients reported one or more symptoms, relative to 19.5% of uninfected participants.By 12 months, 33.1% of COVID-19 patients had at least one long-COVID symptom, compared with 17.3% of their uninfected peers. At that time point, relative to the percentage of symptomatic participants at 3 months, those with at least one persistent symptom had decreased 5.8% and 3.4%, respectively. The number of COVID-19 vaccine doses and types and time since last dose didn't differ among COVID-positive patients with or without long COVID. Similarly, among COVID-negative participants, there were no differences in types of vaccines received before the ED visit or number of days since the last dose.Infected participants reported each long-COVID symptom at least twice as often as uninfected patients. Few COVID-negative patients reported loss of smell or taste or new chronic cough. A total of 21.4% of COVID-19 patients reported at least three long-COVID symptoms, compared with 6.1% of the uninfected. Participants infected during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant predominance reported more memory impairment, difficulty concentrating, and dizziness than those infected pre-Omicron. Risk factors for long COVID were a positive COVID-19 test at the initial ED visit, (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.42), admission to an intensive care unit (aOR, 1.84), female sex (aOR, 1.51), loss of smell or taste at the index ED visit (aOR, 1.38), treatment with the anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone (aOR, 1.27), fatigue at the ED visit (aOR, 1.17), and arrival by ambulance (aOR, 1.16). Vaccination appeared to have no effect on long-COVID risk (aOR, 1.00).The meta-analysis, conducted by Deakin University researchers in Victoria, Australia, estimated rates of ME/CFS among 1,973 long-COVID patients included in 13 clinical studies published from January 2020 to May 2023. The average proportion of women was 78.2%, and the median follow-up period was 7 months."Prior to LC [long COVID], long-term debilitating post-viral syndromes have been widely described," the researchers wrote. "For example, viral infections have been associated with approximately 60-70% of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) cases." Associated pathogens include Epstein-Barr, Ross River, human herpesvirus, mycoplasma, influenza A, coronavirus, West Nile, and dengue.An estimated 51% of long-COVID patients satisfied ME/CFS diagnostic criteria. The most common symptoms were fatigue, sleep disruptions, and muscle or joint pain, and long-COVID patients also had the characteristic ME/CFS symptom of post-exertional malaise."Our study not only demonstrates that LC patients exhibit similar symptom clusters to ME/CFS, but that approximately half of LC patients satisfy a diagnosis of ME/CFS," the researchers wrote. "Our findings suggest that current ME/CFS criteria could be adapted to the identification of a subset of LC patients that may facilitate the standardized diagnosis, management and the recruitment for clinical studies in the future."
Lithium aspartate didn't relieve long-COVID fatigue, brain fog in trial participants --A randomized clinical trial (RCT) published today in JAMA Network Open concludes that study doses of lithium aspartate don't improve long-COVID fatigue or brain fog but doesn't rule out the potential effectiveness of higher doses of the drug."Due to the lack of effective treatments, PCC [post-COVID condition] continues to cause major disability and reduced quality of life in an estimated 65 million people worldwide," the authors noted. "PCC can also cause substantial financial consequences, with about 45% of patients requiring reduced working hours and about 22% of patients unable to be employed." Lithium aspartate is not approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for any indication, although it is sometimes sold as a dietary supplement. Another form of the drug, lithium carbonate, is used to treat bipolar disorder and can reduce inflammation of the brain, the researchers said.For the double-blind trial, University at Buffalo researchers evaluated the use of 10 to 15 milligrams per day (mg/d) of lithium aspartate in 52 patients treated at a neurology clinic from November 2022 to June 2023 and followed for 3 weeks. Half of the patients received lithium aspartate, and half received a placebo. Subsequently, the authors conducted an open-label dose-finding study with doses up to 45 mg/d for 6 weeks among four of the same patients in January 2024. Patients were instructed to take two 5-mg capsules twice daily for a week, and each week thereafter, increased the dose by one capsule a day up to four capsules every morning and five capsules every night as tolerated. In the clinical trial, lithium aspartate didn't significantly improve fatigue or cognitive dysfunction related to long COVID. But the subsequent dose-finding study found that 40 to 45 mg/d of the drug was tied to numerically greater symptom relief, especially in two patients with serum lithium concentrations of 0.18 and 0.49 milliequivalents per liter (mEq/L), respectively, compared with one with a level of 0.10 mEq/L. No adverse events were attributed to lithium aspartate.
US markers show more COVID decline, with RSV rise in the southeast --COVID-19 activity declined last week, with wastewater levels—still highest in the West—now at moderate levels, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest respiratory virus updates.Emergency department (ED) and hospitalizations for COVID continue to trend downward, as is test positivity, which is now at 9.2% nationally. ED visits are highest for infants and older adults, and hospitalization rates are highest in seniors. Deaths from COVID remain stable, making up about 2% of all US deaths.Though respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and flu levels remain low, detections are starting to rise in in the southeast, including in Florida and especially in young children. The CDC reported one more pediatric flu death for the 2023-2024 season, first reported in October 2023, raising the total to 201. Levels of the dominant KP.3.1.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant continue to rise and are at 58.7%, but in its latest projections, the CDC said the proportion of XEC viruses rose from 2.5% to 6% over the last 2 weeks. It notes that XEC is a recombinant of two JN.1 lineages, and because updated vaccines include a JN.1 lineage virus, they are still expected to provide protection.So far, the CDC hasn’t noted any XEC impacts on tests, treatments, or symptoms.
Only 56% of US infants protected by RSV vaccine, antibody -Last year was the first time the United States had two approved methods for combating respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in infants, a maternal vaccine administered in the final weeks of pregnancy and the antibody nirsevimab given to infants under the age of 8 months during RSV season. But In Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, authors describethe results of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) survey which shows only 55.8% of infants were protected by maternal RSV vaccine, nirsevimab, or both. In order to assess the use of maternal vaccine and infant antibodies, CDC conducted a web-based survey from March 26 through April 11, 2024, among women 18 to 49 years who reported being pregnant at any time since August 1, 2023.The survey included 866 women with an infant born during August 2023 through March 2024; analysis of RSV vaccination coverage was limited to 678 women who were 32 to 36 gestational weeks’ pregnant any time during September 1, 2023, through January 31, 2024.Nirsevimab coverage among infants as well as proportion of infants protected by either maternal or infant immunization was evaluated among 866 women who had a live birth between August 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024.Maternal RSV vaccination coverage was 32.6%, and of those 54.1% reported receiving the vaccine at an obstetrician or gynecologist’s office. Several factors were associated with maternal vaccine use, the authors said. Uptake was higher among those with private or military insurance (38.9%) than among those with public insurance (28.0%); those living at or above poverty (35.0%) compared with those living below poverty (26.4%); and those with higher than a college degree (50.1%) than among those with a college degree or less (28.7%–32.7%).Of note, only 1.9% of women who received no medical recommendation received the vaccine, compared to 56.7% of those who relied on a recommendation from a provider."Approximately one half of pregnant women did not report receiving a provider recommendation for maternal RSV vaccination or nirsevimab for their infants, indicating missed opportunities to protect infants from severe RSV disease," the authors wrote.Infant coverage with nirsevimab was 44.6%. Again, use was higher among those who received a provider recommendation for either maternal or infant RSV immunization (58.7%) comparedwith those who did not receive a recommendation (28.3%).Overall, 55.8% of infants were protected by either maternal RSV vaccination, nirsevimab, or both; 14.2% of infants were protected by both. These numbers were below the projected percentages.
Whooping cough and the price of vaccine hesitancy by Joel Eissenberg -The widespread use of diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccines, which protect against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis had driven whooping cough (pertussis) to the brink of extinction in the US. “The DTaP vaccine has been a cornerstone of childhood vaccination programs for decades, significantly reducing the incidence of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis. Pertussis, in particular, is a highly contagious bacterial infection that can cause severe, life-threatening complications in young children, especially infants who are too young to be fully vaccinated. Before widespread vaccination, whooping cough epidemics were a regular occurrence, with thousands of deaths reported each year. “Today, the vaccine is highly effective, with studies showing up to 90% effectiveness in preventing severe cases of pertussis in fully vaccinated children. The urgency to address vaccine hesitancy cannot be overstated. The U.S. is returning to pre-pandemic patterns, where more than 10,000 cases of whooping cough are typically reported annually. “Measures like masking and remote learning likely helped reduce pertussis transmission during the pandemic. However, in 2024, pertussis cases have surged, reflecting a shift back to normal trends. Preliminary CDC data as of mid-September 2024 show five times more cases than the same period in 2023, with numbers now surpassing pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. This trend is particularly dangerous because pertussis can spread rapidly through communities, especially among those who are not fully vaccinated.” The decline in vaccination and the resulting surge in preventable diseases is fueled by misinformation and distrust in vaccines. An egregious example of fear-inspiring lie is the absurd claim that vaccines can alter human DNA, but misunderstanding about vaccine efficacy, virus transmission and herd immunity has eroded trust. While vaccine hesitancy is not limited to the US, neither are the infectious disease they can prevent or mitigate, as the global COVID pandemic dramatically illustrated. But it is a tragedy that in the third decade of the 21st century, in the richest nation on the planet, people still embrace myths in the face of the overwhelming evidence that vaccines save lives, enhance health and prevent transmission safely.
Study provides novel insights on sepsis in India - A study conducted in southern India found that sepsis disproportionately affects younger and mostly rural groups and that gram-negative bacteria, viruses, and tropical diseases are significant causes, researchers reported todayin Clinical Infectious Diseases.To gain insight into the causative agents and characteristics of patients with community-acquired sepsis in India, which accounts for 26% of global sepsis-related deaths, a team of researchers from India, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom conducted a prospective observational study in a tertiary-care hospital in South India from December 2018 through September 2022. They enrolled adult patients within 24 hours of intensive care unit admission (ICU) who met international sepsis criteria and collected clinical, microbiologic, demographic, and outcome data. Of the 4,000 patients screened on ICU admission, 1,000 (median age, 55 years; 66% male) met the inclusion criteria. Most patients lived outside of urban areas, with 23.7% living in towns and 46.5% in villages, while roughly half had no formal education, and three-quarters worked in the primary sector. The median length of ICU stay was 4 days, and in-hospital mortality was 24.1%.A causative agent could be identified in 54% of patients, with bacteria causing 38% of cases, viruses 18%, leptospirosis 10.6%, scrub typhus 4.1%, dengue 3.7%, and Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) 1.6%. Sepsis cases caused by leptospirosis, scrub typhus, dengue, and KFDV all showed seasonal variation around the monsoon season.Among patients with bacterial sepsis, 43.9% of isolates were gram-negative; Escherichia coli (52.3%),Klebsiella pneumoniae (23.3%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (5.3%) were the most frequently isolated species. Further analysis found high levels of antibiotic resistance, with 75.8% of E coli, 47.7% of K pneumoniae, and 30% of P aeruginosa resistant to third-generation cephalosporins and 10.1%, 13.6%, and 10.0% resistant to carbapenems, respectively. "This study provides a detailed examination of sepsis in South India and fills important knowledge gaps of the real burden of sepsis in LMICs [low- and middle-income countries]," the study authors wrote. "These findings provide critical groundwork for strengthening capacity, optimizing resource allocation, and formulating evidence-based treatment guidelines specifically tailored to South Asia, underscoring the importance of regional epidemiologic sepsis research in LMICs."
WHO reports new MERS case in Saudi Arabia --The World Health Organization (WHO) reported today that it has been notified of a human case of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus) in Saudi Arabia.The case, which was reported by Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health, involves a man from the Eastern Region aged between 50 and 55 years with underlying health conditions who developed fever, cough, shortness of breath, and palpitations on August 28. He was admitted to a hospital on August 31, and a nasopharyngeal swab returned a positive result for MERS-CoV on September 4. After being discharged from the hospital and prior to receiving the test result, the man traveled to Pakistan on September 2. He was subsequently located in Pakistan and transferred to a hospital for strict isolation. He was discharged on September 13 after receiving a negative test result.The man had no history of contact with camels and is not a healthcare worker. Follow-up with close contacts of the patient by Saudi and Pakistani health officials found no secondary cases.Saudi Arabia has reported a total of five MERS-CoV cases since the beginning of the year, with four deaths. The last case was reported on May 8. Since the first report of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia in 2012, there have been 2,205 human cases reported in 27 countries, the vast majority of them in Saudi Arabia.The WHO says the case does not change its overall risk assessment, which remains moderate at both the global and regional levels.
The first-ever outbreak of Marburg virus disease in Rwanda --On Saturday, September 28, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a first-ever outbreak in Rwanda of the deadly Marburg virus. It is the fourth largest Marburg outbreak documented in modern history. Local health authorities have confirmed 26 cases with six deaths thus far. Cases have occurred across seven of the country’s 30 districts. The survivors are presently in isolation receiving treatment, while 161 people who have been identified through contact tracing are being monitored. Rwanda’s Ministry of Health had informed the public and the international health authorities on Friday of these developments. The statement said, “Marburg virus disease (MVD), a hemorrhagic fever, has been confirmed in a few patients in health facilities in the country. Investigations are being carried out to determine the origin of the infection. Enhanced preventive measures are being implemented in all health facilities. Contact tracing is underway, and cases have been isolated for treatment.” The country’s health minister, Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, told reporters on the same day via a video statement posted on X, “We are counting 20 people who are infected, and six who have already passed away due to this virus. The large majority of cases and deaths are among healthcare workers, mainly in the intensive care unit.” The following day, addressing the public, Dr. Nsanzimana told Rwandans on video: I want to emphasize that people can continue with their daily activities. There is no prohibition on any activities. What we ask is that people who have symptoms, specifically high fever, severe headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, diarrhea and vomiting, if you experience these symptoms don’t ignore them. These are the main symptoms indicating the onset of this virus. Do not continue your daily activities. Instead, call 114 or visit the nearest health center. People should not panic as we have started identifying the hotspots of the disease and are taking appropriate action. We cannot implement guidelines that hinder people’s livelihoods. There is no cure for the disease and supportive care in health facilities means access to intensive care units with healthcare providers well versed in maintaining strict isolation controls. Mainstays of care include pain control, balancing fluids and electrolytes, antibiotics and antifungals as deemed appropriate, and anticoagulation to prevent or control disseminated intravascular coagulation. Such measures are resource intensive and can quickly overwhelm healthcare facilities in poor countries even with just a few cases. Marburg virus disease is a viral hemorrhagic fever that has similar clinical symptoms to infection with the Ebola virus. Even with supportive care, fatality rates range from 24 to 88 percent. The incubation period after exposure lasts a week on average, but can be between two to 21 days, underscoring the importance of immediate public health efforts to trace all contacts. The initial phase of the infection (days one through five) is accompanied by high fevers (104 degrees Fahrenheit) with severe headaches, chills, extreme fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and horrible sore throat. Additionally, red and purple discolorations cover the entire body. Abdominal cramping, red inflamed eyes, and malaise are experienced by most. By week one to two, patients are listless in bed out of weakness. They also suffer from shortness of breath, swelling, and marked eye redness. They can suffer from central nervous symptoms such as delirium, confusion and aggression, which places caregivers in danger of secondary infection. The infected also manifest bloody stools and hemorrhaging from mucosal surfaces and blood draw sites. While fatal cases will continue into coma, convulsions, multiorgan failure accompanied by diffuse coagulopathy, metabolic disturbances, shock and lastly death in this period, those who survive and enter the convalescence phase will have generalized aches and pains, liver dysfunction, muscle weakness, and possibly psychosis. Transmission of Marburg virus disease is not well understood but can occur through exposure to one species of fruit bats or through consumption of bush meat. The infection can be spread between people via contact with body fluids through unprotected sex or broken skin. The source of the infection in Rwanda remains to be determined. The majority of cases confirmed have been among healthcare workers in and around the capital city, Kigali, with a population of 1.2 million and an airport well-connected to domestic and international destinations.
Rwanda reports first Marburg virus outbreak - Rwanda’s health ministry has reported the country’s first Marburg virus outbreak, which has already sickened 26 people, 8 of them fatally, across 7 of the country’s 30 districts.The outbreak comes as Africa battles multiple infectious disease events, including the complex spread of multiple mpox clades. Marburg virus causes a viral hemorrhagic fever disease with symptoms similar to Ebola. Though Rwanda’s outbreak marks the first Marburg event of 2024, it comes closely on the heels of outbreaks in 2023 that were firsts for two other African nations: Tanzania and Equatorial Guinea. The World Health Organization (WHO) said in a September 28 statement that 20 patients are in isolation and receiving treatment, and 161 contacts have been identified and are under monitoring. The group is mobilizing expertise and outbreak response tools, which will be delivered to Kigali in the coming days.Most of the patients are health workers, especially those working in intensive care units, from different medical facilities, according to a Rwandan media report that cited Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD, the country’s health minister.In guidance to limit Marburg spread, the government has limited the size of funerals for those who died from the disease to 50 people and said that hospitalized Marburg patients will be limited to one caregiver, according to a BBC report.In a September 28 health alert the US Embassy in Kigali said until the scope and severity of the Marburg outbreak is known, out of an abundance of caution at authorized employees to work remotely today through October 4. It also suspended all in-person services during the people.Matshidiso Moeti, MD, who directs the WHO’s African regional office, “With the country’s already robust public health emergency response system, WHO is collaborating closely with the national authorities to provide the needed support to further enhance the ongoing efforts.”The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that the ministry said eight people have died and that it is in communication with health officials in Rwanda and throughout the region. The CDC has had an office in Rwanda since 2002 and has offered the country additional support.Marburg virus disease has a case-fatality rate as high as 88%. Symptoms can begin suddenly with fever, rash, and severe bleeding. Fruit bats harbor the virus and spread it to people, and like Ebola, the virus spreads between people through contact with infected body fluids.Currently there are no licensed vaccines or treatments. However, several promising countermeasures are in clinical trials.
WHO: cases at border and capital among Marburg concerns in Rwanda | The majority of people infected in Rwanda’s Marburg virus outbreak are health workers, and some illnesses have been reported in districts that border three other African nations, both of which are among a number of concerning features of the event, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its initial risk assessment. The source of the Marburg virus outbreak—Rwanda’s first—still isn’t known, pending further investigation findings by Rwandan health officials, the WHO said. Rwanda’s health ministry today reported 2 more confirmed cases and 1 more death, raising the outbreak total to 29 cases, 10 of them fatal. The outbreak is already one of the biggest involving Marburg virus, a close cousin of Ebola.The 26 cases noted in the WHO’s update include health workers at two hospitals in Kigali, the country’s capital. The WHO noted that infections in health workers can lead to further spread if not controlled early. “The importance of screening all persons entering health facilities as well as inpatient surveillance for prompt identification, isolation, and notification cannot be overemphasized,” the WHO said. According tomedia reports, the country has banned hospital visits and that only one caregiver would be allowed per patient.Confirmed cases in Kigali pose a risk of international spread, given that the capital city has an international airport, and road networks to several cities in East Africa. One of the 300 contacts of the confirmed cases had traveled to Belgium. Health officials from Belgium told the WHO that the individual remains healthy, has completed the 21-day monitoring period, and is not a risk to public health.Cases have been reported from seven of the countries, districts. Though most are in and around Kigali, some have been reported from Rubavu in the west on the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and from Nyagatare near the border with Uganda and Tanzania.Tanzania, along with Equatorial Guinea, reported its first Marburg virus outbreak in 2023. The WHO said the affected region in Tanzania’s outbreak was Kagera, which borders Rwanda. The WHO assessed the risk of Marburg as very high for Rwanda, high for the region, and low at the global level.
Rwanda confirms more Marburg cases, plans vaccine trial -- As Rwanda battles its first Marburg virus outbreak, the country’s health ministry yesterday reported seven more cases, along with one more death. At briefings today, the country’s health minister shared more details about the outbreak, including that a vaccine trial is slated to begin soon.In other developments, German officials reported negative results on two travelers who returned from Rwanda and were isolated in Hamburg due to a history of exposure in a Rwandan hospital where Marburg patients were being treated.The new illness confirmations and deaths bring Rwanda’s Marburg virus total to 36 cases, 11 of them fatal, making it one of the world’s biggest outbreaks involving the virus.At an Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) media briefing today, Rwanda’s health minister, Sabin Nsanzimana, MD, PhD, said 29 (80%) of the patients are healthcare workers. Currently, 25 people are being treated in isolation. Health officials have identified 323 contacts for monitoring. Like past Marburg outbreaks in other countries, Rwanda’s came to the attention of health officials when healthcare workers got sick. The virus is known to transmit through contact with infected body fluids. He noted that the first two patients didn’t respond to usual treatment for other conditions such as malaria, which has a similar initial clinical presentation.Many of the patients are part of a cluster of people who had close contact in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a hospital where the probable index patient was treated. At a World Health Organization (WHO) briefing today, Brian Chirombo, MD, MPH, said the index patient died on September 8 and that the outbreak involves patients at two Kigale hospitals, King Faisal and University Teaching Hospital.Nsanzimana said the ministry expects to receive about 5,000 doses of remdesivir to provide advanced treatment for Marburg patients.He also said officials expect to launch a vaccine trial in the days ahead, and details about the vaccine and the official launch date will be announced soon. Currently, there are no approved specific Marburg virus treatments or vaccines.The epidemiologic investigation and genetic sequencing are still under way. He characterized the outbreak as “controlled but not contained.” Yesterday, German health officials transported two train passengers to a hospital in Hamburg for testing after a history of exposure in a Rwandan medical facility where Marburg patients are being treated.The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said today that it has been in close contact with German public health authorities, who reported today that the tests were negative. It said the risk of Marburg illness in European residents traveling or living in affected parts of Rwanda is still considered low, but the risk of exposure in healthcare settings there is moderate. It urged travelers to avoid contact with symptomatic people and the dead bodies of infected people.
German health officials probe symptoms in contact of Rwandan Marburg patient -In related developments, German officials are investigating symptoms in two train travelers, one of them a medical student who had arrived by plane from Rwanda where he had contact with a patient who was later diagnosed with Marburg virus infection, Bild reported today. The man and his girlfriend reportedly experienced flulike symptoms on a train from Frankfurt to Hamburg.Officials cleared two tracks in Hamburg Central Station and evacuated the area, as emergency responders in protective suits boarded the train. The two people were taken to University Hospital Eppendorf in Hamburg. Health officials have identified about 200 passengers on the train and are working to determine if they had contact with the two sick passengers. In an outbreak notice earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) said one of the contacts of a Marburg patient in Rwanda had traveled to Belgium, but the individual remains healthy, had completed the 21-day monitoring period, and is not a risk to public health.
Egg Recall Update As Highest Risk Level Issued Over Contamination Fears - Several brands of eggs recalled after a salmonella warning have been given the highest possible risk classification by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).Chicken eggs from the brands Milo's Poultry Farms and Tony's Fresh Market, distributed by Milo's Poultry Farms LLC, were recalled by the FDA last month.They have now been given a "Class I" risk classification alongside Happy Quackers Farm duck eggs, also distributed by Milo's Poultry Farms.A Class I risk level is put into place in "a situation in which there is a reasonable probability that the use of or exposure to a violative product will cause serious adverse health consequences or death," according to the FDA.The strain of salmonella involved in the outbreak is resistant to the antibiotics nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, meaning that severe infections may be more difficult to treat.The eggs were recalled after salmonella was found in the hen egg-laying house and the packing facility at Milo's Poultry Farms in Wisconsin."The recall was initiated after the FDA informed the company that environmental samples tested positive for the bacteria," the agency said in the original recall notice."FDA also conducted whole genome sequencing and found that the samples were related to an ongoing Salmonella outbreak investigation."Initially, only Milo's Poultry Farms and Tony's Fresh Market -branded chicken eggs were recalled, but in a classification update the FDA says that Happy Quackers Farm duck eggs are also included in the recall and the risk classification. These eggs were sold by retail stores and food service distributors across Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin, with customers advised not to consume them."12-count and 18-count cartons of chicken eggs can be identified with the brands of Milo's and Tony's Fresh Market. Duck eggs 12-count carton can be identified with the brand Happy Quackers Farm, UPC 7 99705-75077 7," the FDA explained.All the recalled eggs have "Best By" dates of October 12, 2024, or sooner. Newsweek has contacted Milo's Poultry Farms for comment. The same strain of salmonella detected in the facility is involved in an outbreak across the Midwest. 65 people have been infected across nine states, including Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin, with the majority of infections coming from Illinois and Wisconsin, according to the CDC. "24 people have been hospitalized and no deaths have been reported," the CDC said.Salmonella is a bacteria that primarily infects the intestines, but can spread to the bloodstream and other parts of the body, leading to more severe complications, especially in vulnerable individuals. Symptoms typically appear 6 hours to 6 days after exposure and include diarrhea, fever, abdominal cramps, nausea, vomiting, headaches and muscle pain. Most people recover within 4–7 days without needing treatment, however, dehydration due to diarrhea can be a concern, particularly in children and the elderly.
FDA warns popular egg brands could cause 'death' after major recall | Daily Mail Online --Several brands of recalled eggs have been given the most dangerous warning label, health officials announced. Last month, the FDA recalled chicken eggs from Milo's Poultry Farms and Tony's Fresh Market due to a salmonella outbreak in nine states. This week, the FDA gave the recall a 'Class I' label, meaning that there is a 'reasonable probability' that exposure to the eggs 'will cause serious adverse health consequences or death.' Distributed by Wisconsin-based Milo's Poultry Farms, LLC, the contaminated eggs have sickened 65 people and hospitalized 24.No deaths have been reported yet.All contaminated eggs have been recalled, the FDA said The recall covered products with a 'Best Buy' date of October 12, 2024, or soonerThe CDC warned that this strain of salmonella, which affects about 1.3million Americans a year, may be particularly difficult to treat, as it is resistant to the common antibiotics nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin (Cipro). The eggs were recalled after salmonella was detected in the hen egg-laying house and the Wisconsin packing facility. State officials revealed that 42 of the infections occurred in Wisconsin, where a large number of people said they got sick after eating eggs at restaurants.In addition to Wisconsin, cases of salmonella were reported in California, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Utah, Virginia, and Illinois, where there were 11 documented infections, the second largest amount.
Connecticut reports first human Rickettsia parkeri case --Connecticut officials have reported the first human case in the state of the tickborne disease Rickettsia parkeri. This is also the first case detected in the Northeastern region of the country. The disease is spread by the Gulf Coast tickAmblyomma maculatum. Unlike other ticks in the region, Gulf Coast ticks favor grassland habitats."Although cases of this disease have been reported in the southeastern part of the country, this is the first report of this disease in the Northeast, an area already plagued by tick-borne diseases, including Lyme disease, babesiosis, anaplasmosis, Powassan virus disease, and ehrlichiosis," said the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station in a letter detailing the identification.The disease is similar to Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) but with relatively milder symptoms. According to a case report in Emerging Infectious Diseases, the patient was a woman who was bitten in Fairfield County, Connecticut, and recovered after a course of doxycycline.In other tick news, a new report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the risk of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) spread through blood or tissue donations finds the risk from blood transmission is very low and is low for organ transplants.Up to one-third of Europeans with TBE are asymptomatic and thus could donate blood or organs without knowledge of their infection.Despite almost 30,000 cases of TBE annually, the ECDC said only two cases via transfusion from one donor have been reported, and three cases via organ transplant were reported from 2013 to 2022.
California faces ‘unprecedented’ local spread of dengue fever, possibly driven by climate change -- California last week clocked its fourth case of locally transmitted dengue fever this year — an alarming rise in a sometimes-deadly disease that experts fear could be fueled by climate change. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health confirmed the newest incidence of the mosquito-borne illness in a resident of Panorama City, a neighborhood in Los Angeles’s San Fernando Valley. The department noted that the individual had not traveled to areas where dengue is endemic, and that the case appeared unrelated to three others, also locally acquired, that were reported in the county earlier this month.“We are seeing the local transmission of dengue, which is unprecedented in Los Angeles County,” Muntu Davis, Los Angeles County health officer, said in a statement.While stressing that such cases of local spread are extremely rare in the region, county officials urged residents to be proactive in preventing mosquito bites and breeding.Spread by certain types of mosquitoes, dengue is a tropical and subtropical viral infection relayed to humans through bites, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Although many infections have only mild, flu-like effects, the virus can also cause severe symptoms or even death.The incidence of dengue has risen sharply in recent years, surging from 505,430 cases worldwide in 2000 to 6.5 million in 2023, WHO reported.The global health agency attributed that increase to a shift in distribution of mosquitoes that carry the virus, weather phenomena and climate change. The latter, according to WHO, has brought higher temperatures, rainfall and humidity — conditions that are generally favorable to mosquitoes.Florida has had locally acquired cases of dengue since at least 2010, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Other states have also periodically presented with locally acquired cases in the past decade, including Texas, New York, West Virginia, North Carolina, Hawaii and Arizona. But California, which had its first two locally spread dengue cases in 2023, is the only state besides Florida in which residents have caught the disease in the areas where they live this year. Prior to the incident on Sept. 25, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced two cases in the city of Baldwin Park on Sept. 18 and one in the same city on Sept. 9.“As dengue spreads more rapidly around the world, more cases get ‘imported’ into California,” she said, explaining that travelers are exposed elsewhere and then bring dengue into the state.When there are “local vector populations” — of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes — in California, imported cases can then cause “chains of local transmission,” Mordecai noted.“This is still on a much smaller scale than dengue outbreaks in many endemic regions, but it is worth paying attention to because the more local transmission becomes established here, the more likely that it can spread,” she said.
- The Los Angeles Department of Public Health said it is investigating a fourth local dengue case, which involves a resident of Panorama City. It noted that the case isn't related to a local dengue cluster in Baldwin Park. Panorama City is about 40 miles west of Baldwin Park. Local dengue cases are extremely rare in Los Angeles County, and health officials urged area residents to take precautions such as wearing mosquito repellent and removing mosquito-breeding sites.
- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed three more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in dairy herds, two in California and one in Idaho. The latest outbreaks push the national total to 242 across 14 states. Also, APHIS confirmed one more H5N1 outbreak in poultry, this time at a farm in Idaho’s Lincoln County that has 700 birds.
- The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) announced that it is investigating a fatal rabies case involving a person older than 65 years who was exposed to a bat in July in the western part of the state. The latest case is Minnesota’s fourth since 2000. The patient's diagnosis was confirmed on September 20 based on testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The MDH said it is working with the patient's family and healthcare facilities where the patient was treated to assess if any others were potentially exposed and may need treatment.
Missouri investigates more possible human-to-human H5N1 avian flu spread --- Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said investigators in Missouri were looking into eight possible human infections of H5N1 avian flu virus after the state reported its first case last month. If confirmed, the cases would mark the first instance of human-to-human H5N1 transmission in the country.At least one household member and six healthcare workers who encountered the index case-patient are being investigated after showing symptoms of viral infection. A week ago, the CDC noted that only two healthcare workers who had contact with the Missouri patient had symptoms.So far 14 human H5N1 cases have been reported in the United States this year, most all but one in agricultural workers who were in close contact with infected cattle. All patients have recovered, but the Missouri patient was hospitalized for his or her illness.Some of the healthcare workers came into contact with the Missouri patient before droplet protocols were in place. Though symptoms have now resolved, the CDC said they would use antibody tests to determine if any of the healthcare workers had the virus."Results of serology testing at CDC on the positive case and their previously identified household contact are still pending," the CDC said. "To date, only one case of influenza A(H5N1) has been detected in Missouri. No contacts of that case have tested positive for influenza A(H5N1)."
California reports likely H5N1 infection in dairy worker - The local health department was notified after the patient experienced conjunctivitis, which was the only symptom. In its emailed press release, the CDPH said the patient’s specimen will be sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for confirmatory testing.If confirmed, the illness would bring the nation’s number of H5N1 infections since the first of the year to 15. Four earlier illnesses occurred in dairy workers, nine occurred in poultry cullers, and one was found in a Missouri patient who had no known animal exposure.The patient is being treated with antiviral medication and is isolating at home. "Ongoing health checks of individuals who interact with potentially infected animals helped us quickly detect and respond to this possible human case. Fortunately, as we've seen in other states with human infections, the individual has experienced mild symptoms." In related developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed 11 more H5N1 outbreaks in California dairy herds, boosting the national total to 255 across 14 states.California, the nation’s largest dairy producer, has now reported 55 infected farms since September.
H5N1 infects second farm worker in California as feds bolster vaccine supply -California health officials yesterday announced the state's second H5N1 avian flu infection in a dairy farm worker who had no known connection to its first case, as federal health officials announced new steps to boost the supply of H5N1 vaccines, if needed.In related developments, federal officials today shared updates about the investigation into a recent Missouri H5N1 case with no clear exposure source and what other federal agencies are doing to manage the threat to people and animals.Hours after California announced its first H5N1 case in a farm worker yesterday, officials announced a second similar case in a worker at a second farm impacted by recent outbreaks in cows. Both patients worked on farms in the Central Valley, where the virus has now been detected in 56 dairy farms since September.The California Department of Public Health said, as in the first case, the second patient had mild symptoms, including conjunctivitis. Neither reported respiratory symptoms or was hospitalized.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it confirmed both cases as H5 avian flu, bringing the nation’s total to 16 cases since the first of the year. All but one—which involves a patient from Missouri—have been connected to contact with sick cows or poultry.CDC scientists will conduct additional tests on the specimens from California’s patients, including genetic sequencing and attempting to isolate and grow the virus.At a briefing today, Nirav Shah, MD, JD, the CDC’s principal deputy director, said the additional cases don’t change the CDC’s assessment that the risk to the general public is low, though more cases in people exposed to sick animals are expected. He commended California officials for actively monitoring workers and quickly identifying and following up on people with symptoms.
- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmedone more H5N1 avian flu outbreak in dairy cattle, another from California. The outbreak brings the national total since the outbreaks began in March to 243 across 14 states. California, the nation’s largest dairy producer, has now reported 44 outbreaks since late August.
- The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) today urged residents to take precautions following an increase in diseases caused by mosquitoes. So far, the state has reported 63 human cases of West Nile virus, 6 of them fatal, from many of the state’s regions but especially the Central Valley. Also, it noted four dengue infections reported from Los Angeles County, including three that are part of a cluster from Baldwin Park. The CDPH urged people to protect themselves from mosquito bites and get rid of standing water where mosquitoes breed.
- Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, today released a report on its 2023 activities, estimating that the vaccine programs it supported last year will prevent 1.3 million deaths. It said 69 million children were immunized, the second highest in one year. The group said another achievement was a big increase in its human papillomavirus vaccination program, which saw 14 million girls immunized, a number greater than the previous 10 years combined.
Officials probe fifth local dengue case in LA County --The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health yesterday announced that it is investigating a fifth local dengue case, which doesn’t appear to be related to the four earlier cases.The latest patient is a resident of El Monte, which is located about 14 miles east of the city of Los Angeles.Officials said local dengue cases in LA County are extremely rare. Last year, two cases were reported.Of the four cases reported over the past few weeks, three are part of a cluster in Baldwin Park and one involves a resident of Panorama City.Muntu Davis, MD, MPH, Los Angeles County health officer, said mosquitoes thrive in hot weather, increasing the risk of bites and mosquito-borne illnesses. “This case further indicates that dengue can spread in our community. Preventing mosquito bites and mosquito breeding is the best way stop local transmission of dengue.”
USDA confirms more H5N1 in Idaho dairy cows --The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmedH5N1 avian flu in one more dairy herd in Idaho, pushing the national total to 244 across 14 states.Idaho has now reported 34 H5N1 outbreaks on dairy farms, three of them since early September. The Idaho State Department of Agriculture said there are currently nine quarantined facilities across four counties: Twin Falls, Canyon, Cassia, and Jerome.
Dozens of zoo tigers die after contracting bird flu in southern Vietnam --More than a dozen tigers were incinerated after the animals contracted bird flu at a zoo in southern Vietnam, officials said. State media VNExpress cited a caretaker at Vuon Xoai zoo in Bien Hoa city saying the animals were fed with raw chicken bought from nearby farms. The panther and 20 tigers, including several cubs, weighed between 10 and 120 kilograms (20 and 265 pounds) when they died. The bodies were incinerated and buried on the premises."The tigers died so fast. They looked weak, refused to eat and died after two days of falling sick," said zoo manager Nguyen Ba Phuc.Samples taken from the tigers tested positive for H5N1, the virus that causes bird flu.The virus was first identified in 1959 and grew into a widespread and highly lethal menace to migratory birds and domesticated poultry. It has since evolved, and in recent years H5N1 was detected in a growing number of animals ranging from dogs and cats to sea lions and polar bears.In cats, scientists have found the virus attacking the brain, damaging and clotting blood vessels and causing seizures and death.More than 20 other tigers were isolated for monitoring. The zoo houses some 3,000 other animals including lions, bears, rhinos, hippos and giraffes.The 30 staff members who were taking care of the tigers tested negative for bird flu and were in normal health condition, VNExpress reported. Another outbreak also occurred at a zoo in nearby Long An province, where 27 tigers and 3 lions died within a week in September, the newspaper said.
APHIS gives $12 million to states, tribes for fight against chronic wasting disease --Today, the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced that it's giving about $12 million to state and tribal governments to implement and enhance chronic wasting disease (CWD) management efforts in wild and farmed cervids such as deer and elk.CWD is a fatal neurologic disease in cervids caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, which are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD poses an ongoing threat to cervids, because it can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination.This funding will help APHIS and our state and Tribal partners find and implement new solutions to this challenging disease while protecting the health of animals and the livelihoods of our farmers.APHIS prioritized jurisdictions that have detected CWD or that border CWD-endemic areas and have either launched surveillance programs or plan to do so. More details on the individual projects are available in the 2024 APHIS spending plans for farmed, wild, and tribal nation wild cervids.
Drier winter habitat impacts songbirds' ability to survive migration - A new study from researchers at the Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute (NZCBI) shows environmental conditions in migratory birds' winter homes carry over to affect their ability to survive spring migration and the breeding season. While scientists have long known that the quality of winter, or non-breeding, habitat influences migratory birds' migration timing and reproductive success, the study, published today in Current Biology, marks the first time researchers have linked winter conditions with migration survival. Analysis of the data for both the Kirtland's warbler and the black-throated blue warbler revealed reduced rainfall and diminished vegetative productivity in the birds' Caribbean non-breeding habitats resulted in fewer birds surviving spring migration. For Kirtland's warblers, poor quality winter habitat also reduced survival in the subsequent breeding season. As bird populations continue to decline, understanding the factors influencing their survival throughout the year is crucial. The Caribbean is expected to get drier in the coming decades due to climate change, suggesting migratory bird species such as these warblers could face even greater challenges going forward. "If winter habitat quality continues to degrade over the next half-century due to climate change, we can now say that it will reduce birds' ability to survive spring migration," said Nathan Cooper, the study's lead author and research ecologist at NZCBI. "That knowledge can help us prioritize conservation measures on the most drought-resistant non-breeding grounds."
The true global impact of species-loss caused by humans is far greater than expected, study reveals - The extinction of hundreds of bird species caused by humans over the last 130,000 years has led to substantial reductions in avian functional diversity—a measure of the range of different roles and functions that birds undertake within the environment—and resulted in the loss of approximately 3 billion years of unique evolutionary history, according to a new study published in Science.While humans have been driving a global erosion of species richness for millennia, the consequences of past extinctions for other dimensions of biodiversity are poorly known. Research led by the University of Birmingham highlights the severe consequences of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and the urgent need to identify the ecological functions being lost through extinction.From the well-documented Dodo to the recent Kauaʻi ʻōʻō songbird declared extinct in 2023, scientists currently have evidence of at least 600 bird species having become extinct as a result of humans since the Late Pleistocene, when modern humans started to spread throughout the world.Using the most comprehensive dataset to date of all known bird extinctions during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, the paper "The global loss of avian functional and phylogenetic diversity from anthropogenic extinctions" looks beyond the number of extinctions to the wider implications on the planet.Lead author Dr. Tom Matthews from the University of Birmingham explained, "The sheer number of bird species that have become extinct is of course, a big part of the extinction crisis, but what we also need to focus on is that every species has a job or function within the environment and therefore plays a really important role in its ecosystem."Some birds control pests by eating insects, scavenger birds recycle dead matter, others eat fruit and disperse the seeds, enabling more plants and trees to grow, and some, like hummingbirds, are very important pollinators. When those species die out, the important role that they play (the functional diversity) dies with them.
Fire at BioLab chemical plant releases massive amounts of toxic smoke, triggers evacuations and road closures near Atlanta, Georgia – (video) A fire broke out at the BioLab chemical plant in Conyers, east of Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday, September 29, 2024, releasing massive amounts of toxic smoke and prompting road closures, evacuations, and shelter-in-place orders. Citizens in the county were advised to shelter in place to avoid potential contaminants from the blaze as numerous hazmat crews and other emergency services responded to the fire. According to preliminary reports, the fire ignited when a sprinkler malfunctioned around 05:00 LT on Sunday, causing water to mix with a water-reactive chemical. However, the cause of the fire is still under investigation. The fire was reportedly brought under control at 16:00 LT, but the roof and walls of the plant have since collapsed. The Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMA) said it issued a shelter-in-place order on behalf of Rockdale’s emergency management agency. No timetable has been provided as to when the area will be safe. Until the severity of the chemical is determined, evacuation sites have been set up at Lucious Sanders Recreation Center (2484 Bruce Street in Lithonia), Bert Adams Boy Scout Camp (218 Scout Road in Covington), and Wolverine Gym (8134 Geiger Street in Newton County). A dispatcher with the Rockdale Fire Department confirmed that Rockdale Piedmont Hospital was evacuating some of its patients. All Newton County schools and the courthouse will be closed on Monday. Around 60 personnel were deployed to the scene to deal with the blaze. Local authorities are still assessing the threat level of the situation. The fire generated a massive smoke plume that was visible as far as 48 km (30 miles) away. Roads were closed, including both sides of Interstate 20. Rockdale County Fire Chief Marian McDaniel told reporters crews are working on removing the chemical from the building, away from the water source. Once the product is contained, the situation will be assessed and officials will let residents know whether it is safe to return to their homes, she said. No fatalities or injuries have been reported so far as a result of the incident. This is the third blaze to occur at the plant in the last seven years. While it is unclear which chemical was involved in the fire, officials said the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will sample the smoke plume to determine its contents.
Over 90,000 Georgia residents taking shelter after chemical fire as haze, smell spreads to Atlanta -A weekend fire that sent a massive plume of dark smoke into the Georgia sky has led to complaints about a strong chemical smell and haze several miles away across metro Atlanta, where some schools canceled outdoor activities and others closer to the fire remained stuck at home sheltering from the outdoor air.More than 90,000 residents east of Atlanta were told to keep sheltering in place Monday, a day after the chemical plant fire.The haze and chemical smell had spread to Atlanta by Monday morning, prompting firefighters to use detectors to check the air quality in various parts of the city, Mayor Andre Dickens said.Closer to the source of the fire, officials said chlorine, a harmful irritant, had been detected in the air from the fire at the BioLab plant in Conyers, Georgia, the Rockdale County government said in a statement Monday. The plant is about 25 miles (40 kilometers) southeast of downtown Atlanta. People in the northern part of Rockdale County, north of Interstate 20, were ordered to evacuate on Sunday, and others were told to shelter in place.Sheriff’s office spokesperson Christine Nesbitt did not know the number of people evacuated, although it covered a large portion of the community of Conyers. Media reports said the number was about 17,000. Emergency officials are telling residents near the plant to shelter in place. The best practice is to “turn the air conditioning off and keep windows and doors shut,” Rockdale County officials said.Emergency management officials in Fulton County, which encompasses much of Atlanta, said people with concerns about the haze or smell should follow the same advice: stay indoors, close their windows and doors and turn off the air conditioning. Residents of at least three large counties in metro Atlanta — Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties — on Monday reported seeing a haze or the strong smell of chlorine.
Wildfire flareup prompts new evacuations in Southern California mountain communities | National (AP) — Evacuation orders and warnings were in place Monday for Southern California residents near a wildfire that is largely contained after the blaze flared up over the weekend. The San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department told residents of Seven Oaks to leave the small mountain community following a sudden surge in the Line Fire on Sunday afternoon. Sheriff's officials on Monday ordered residents in nearby Angelus Oaks to evacuate, and warned those in the Boulder Bay area along Big Bear Lake to be prepared to leave. As of Sunday, the Line Fire was spread over 62.6 square miles (162.13 square kilometers) and 83% contained, with 1,176 personnel assigned to fight the blaze, according to the San Bernardino National Forest. At its height, the blaze threatened more than 65,000 homes. A California man pleaded not guilty on Sept. 17 to starting the Line Fire on Sept. 5. Justin Wayne Halstenberg, 34, of Norco, California, was charged with 11 arson-related crimes, according to court records. Temperatures are expected to spike this week across California. Dry, hot winds in the northern part of the state prompted Pacific Gas & Electric to preemptively cut power Monday to about 1,200 customers in Butte and Shasta counties. The utility routinely cuts electricity service in areas where weather conditions increase the risk of fires.
Boaters forced to shelter in place during Calif. wildfire — A fire ignited Thursday afternoon near the southwestern bank of Lake Piru in Ventura County and by evening had burned nearly 300 acres. The flames stranded half a dozen boaters, who were forced to shelter in place lakeside, officials said.The blaze, dubbed the Felicia fire, threatened three to five structures, including homes and a U.S. Forest Service fire station. Video from OnScene.TV showed roaring flames leaping into the air. Fire was burning dangerously close to a house as the afternoon wore on.All threatened structures have crews assigned to protect them, said Andrew Dowd , a Ventura County Fire Department public information officer.The fire had burned 301 acres and was 14% contained as of 8 p.m.Dowd told The Times that more than 500 assigned firefighters “were making good progress” and the fire’s forward advance had been stopped.“Steep, rugged terrain with limited access is hampering firefighting efforts,” the department wrote in an X postupdating the fire’s progress.The Ventura County Sheriff’s Department ordered an evacuation of the western side of the lake and closed Piru Canyon Road . Around 15 people were evacuated from the lake’s recreational areas, including a campground and the nearby canyon.Six boaters were unable to leave before roads closed, Dowd said, and sheltered at the marina parking lot north of the fire until park rangers were able to escort them out around 5 p.m.The fire started around 1 p.m. , and its cause still under investigation, Dowd said. No injuries have been reported.Video released by the Ventura County Fire Department showed workers clearing brush while helicopters dropped water on the fire in the distance.
Unusually strong Category 5 atmospheric river hits Alaska and British Columbia - The Watchers An unusually strong atmospheric river dropped heavy rainfall over British Columbia and Alaska from September 22 to 24, 2024, causing floods and landslides. Fueled by an unusual negative Arctic Oscillation, the storm attracted precipitation from Southeast Asia, causing hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast. The storm’s integrated water vapor transport (IVT) levels were among the highest recorded in 23 years, marking this atmospheric river as an exceptionally intense event. A severe Category 5 atmospheric river (AR) — associated with an area of low pressure and a trans-Pacific moisture plume — swept through the Gulf of Alaska last weekend, bringing days-long heavy rainfall to coastal British Columbia, Canada, and southeastern Alaska. Because of its duration and the concentration of moisture moving across the ocean, experts suspect this was among the most intense atmospheric rivers to transit the northeast Pacific in a satellite-based record going back to 2000. The AR developed within the trans-Pacific moisture plume south of the intensifying low-pressure system, eventually making landfall over Southeast Alaska and British Columbia on September 22. AR 4 – 5 conditions were observed in southern Southeast Alaska and coastal British Columbia. The heaviest precipitation was recorded in the Coast and Hazelton Mountains in British Columbia and Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, with some locations receiving more than 150 mm (6 inches) of rain. This heavy rainfall caused minor riverine flooding in the Telkwa River, British Columbia, where the flow exceeded the 20-year return interval. In the southern region of Southeast Alaska, rainfall ranged between 25 – 75 mm (1 – 3 inches), corresponding to roughly a 1 to 2-year return interval. In the town of Bella Bella, British Columbia, between 50 and 100 mm (2 and 4 inches) of rain fell each day from September 21 to 24, with up to 100 mm (4 inches) more falling in the following days. atmospheric river satellite image suomi npp viirs eo Image credit: NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP/VIIRS, EO. Acquired on September 22, 2024 This atmospheric river was powered by the Arctic Oscillation’s intense negative phase, an uncommon September situation that can increase atmospheric river activity in the Pacific Northwest. Preliminary estimates indicate that this was an unusually strong event, according to scientists from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the University of California, San Diego. Their initial calculation of integrated water vapor transport (IVT), which measures a combination of wind speed and moisture levels in the atmosphere, revealed that this system had significantly higher values compared to other atmospheric rivers in the North Pacific over the past 23 years. “The extremity of the Gulf of Alaska atmospheric river IVT is remarkable,” said Bin Guan, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Los Angeles. He said the days leading up to the event saw the development of a strong Arctic Oscillation in its negative phase. Such low values are extremely rare for September but can be conducive to atmospheric rivers in this region. “This could be one of the conditions that potentially contributed to this exceptionally strong atmospheric river event,” Guan said. The moisture for this event started in Southeast Asia. It was pushed across the Pacific Ocean, transporting it to the North American shore, resulting in ideal conditions for this massive storm. When the system reached land, it emitted water vapor in heavy rain, resulting in extended rains and hazardous circumstances in coastal areas.
Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central Rockies, Extreme Heat Risk impacts in Phoenix, U.S. - Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the Central Rockies on Wednesday, October 2, 2024, while Southern California and the Southwest brace for record-breaking heat, with temperatures reaching up to 43.3 °C (110 °F) and heat advisories in place. Down-slope flow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies will create warm air over parts of the Central Rockies, combined with strong gust wind and dry fuels, which have prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central Rockies and Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches on Wednesday, October 2. In addition, high temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and the Southwest where high temperatures ranging from 37.8 – 43.3 °C (100 – 110 °F) are expected due to an upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region. Low temperatures ranging from 26.7 – 32.2 °C (80 – 90 °F) should provide at least some relief from the heat overnight.
Up to 75% of homes in Keaton Beach, Florida destroyed by Hurricane “Helene” - (10 minute drone video) Category 4 Hurricane “Helene” made landfall near Perry in the Taylor County, Big Bend region of Florida on September 28, 2024, bringing a destructive storm surge and powerful winds. Keaton Beach, a Taylor County seaside village, that has had three storms in the last 13 months, has been devastated by Helene, with 60% to 75% of dwellings destroyed. The Category 4 storm hit the area with gusts of nearly 161 km/h (100 mph) and storm surges of up to 6 m (20 feet), causing widespread destruction. This area was directly in the path of Helene’s eye after landing near the mouth of the Aucilla River on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Taylor County, where Keaton Beach is located, has experienced three hurricanes in just 13 months. Hurricane “Idalia” struck as a Category 3 storm, while Hurricane “Debby,” which made landfall in late July, was a Category 1 storm. While 11 deaths have been reported statewide due to drowning and other storm-related causes and over 1189 across the country, no fatalities have yet been confirmed in Taylor County. However, almost all homes, boats, and vehicles were in the region were destroyed, leaving debris scattered across the village. The storm’s intensity even brought down several buildings that had stood for decades. Residents reported that 60% to 75% of the homes in the area were destroyed. Residents are currently in the early phases of recovery, assessing the damage and starting cleanup work after the storm passed. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has also issued updates on the situation while state officials and emergency response teams continue to assess the damage and coordinate recovery operations. As of early September 30, the death toll across the country has surpassed 118, with 1 153 people still unaccounted for or missing. In North Carolina, over 46 people have lost their lives, and more than 1 000 remain missing. The hardest-hit area is Buncombe County, with more than 30 reported fatalities. Henderson County has seen 5 deaths, while Catawba, Gaston, and Mecklenburg counties each have reported 1 death. Additionally, 8 others have been confirmed dead, though their specific locations remain unreported, as noted by CBS News. In South Carolina, 30 deaths have been confirmed. Spartanburg County has reported 6 deaths, Greenville County 5, Aiken and Saluda counties 4 each, Anderson County 4, Laurens County 3, Newberry County 2, and both Greenwood and Chesterfield counties have each reported 1 death. In Georgia, 25 deaths have been reported. Richmond County has been hardest hit with 6 fatalities. McDuffie County has recorded 4 deaths, while Lowndes County has seen 3. Wheeler, Laurens, Jeff Davis, and Washington counties each reported 2 deaths, and Colquitt, Pierce, Liberty, and Columbia counties have each confirmed 1 death. In Florida, there have been 13 reported deaths. Pinellas County accounted for 10 fatalities, Hillsborough County for 2, and Dixie County for 1. Notably, there have been no reported deaths in Taylor County, where the hurricane made landfall. In Tennessee, at least 2 people have died, with over 153 still missing. One fatality was reported in Unicoi County, and another in Johnson County. In Virginia, 2 deaths have been reported. Craig County and Tazewell County have each seen 1 fatality.
EF-3 tornado hits Rocky Mount in North Carolina, injuring 15 people and causing significant damage, U.S. - A severe EF-3 tornado with winds of up to 225 km/h (140 mph) slammed Rocky Mount on Friday, September 27, 2024, in North Carolina, injuring 15 people and causing devastation at the Tiffany Square Shopping Center. The tornado, which traveled 400 m (437 yards) in three minutes, was powered by the leftovers of Tropical Depression “Helene” which had previously caused widespread flooding in the region. In reaction to the devastation, Mayor Saunders Roberson Jr. proclaimed a state of emergency, kicking off recovery operations for affected residents and businesses. 15 people who were injured were transported to UNC Health Nash, including four in serious condition. A hospital spokesperson reported that two individuals suffered “major injuries,” while eight others were treated for minor injuries in the Emergency Department. Fortunately, no fatalities were reported. The tornado caused considerable damage, particularly to the Tiffany Square Shopping Center. “Friday is a heavy traffic day and this is a shopping center, and people are out here,” Rocky Mount Interim City Manager Peter Varney stated. “Looks like the tornado came from Airport Road and jumped across the highway and into this shopping center area and down Tiffany Boulevard. It could have been a whole lot worse. Fifteen injuries is not what you want, but it’s not any worse than that.” The tornado was brief but powerful. It measured 90 m (295 feet) wide, traveled 0.40 km (0.25 miles), and lasted only three minutes. In total, fourteen structures were damaged, including businesses such as Respracare, Hing Ta Restaurant, and Alpha Automotive, where vehicles were thrown around by the tornado’s powerful winds.
Dramatic pictures from southern US show scale of Hurricane Helene devastation (photo essay) Hurricane Helene is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the United States with wind gust speeds of 140 mph (225 km/h) and heavy rain. The storm made landfall in Florida overnight on Thursday as a category four hurricane but was downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved rapidly more inland.It was the strongest storm on record to hit Florida's Big Bend, and it moved north into Georgia and the Carolinas.At least 45 people have died and millions have been left without power. Insurers and financial institutions say damage caused by the storm could run into the billions of dollars.
Death toll from Hurricane Helene mounts as aftermath assessment begins : NPR -Rescue teams across the southeastern U.S. and southern Appalachia scrambled to respond to the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, as more than 2.6 million homes and businesses were without any power Saturday amid a continued threat of floods.At least 64 people were killed across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia, The Associated Press reported. The dead included three firefighters, a mother and her 1-month-old twins and an 89-year-old woman who was struck by a tree that hit her house.Moody's Analytics said it expects $15 billion to $26 billion in property damage from the hurricane, which by late Friday had been downgraded to a tropical storm and was a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. AccuWeather's preliminary estimate for total damage and economic loss, meanwhile, wasbetween $95-$110 billion, which would make Helene one of the costliest storms in U.S. history.The White House said it had approved emergency declaration requests from the governors of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, giving the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, authorization to provide emergency response assistance. Some 1,500 federal disaster response personnel had also been deployed to the region. In Florida, beaches along the coast near Tampa remained off limits as rescue and recovery operations continued. Andrew Swan, who lives in a house near the beach, told NPR member station WUSF reporter Stephanie Colombini that he rode out the storm alone, with waters rising up to his chest. “I mean everybody is just kind of in shock and just trying to pick up the pieces. I mean nobody really expected it like this,” Swan said. As the waters rose, Swan said he slept on a kitchen counter with his legs draped over his stove. In North Carolina, Helene produced unusually heavy winds — up to 140 mph — on land, the strongest observed in coastal North Carolina since the start of modern meteorological recordkeeping in the 19th century. Experts said they were most worried about the flow of debris that was yet to come.“To me, the biggest concerns around here are debris flows, which are very wet, very fast moving and can travel long distances,” Brad Johnson, who studies landslides and erosion at Davidson College, told NPR member station WFAE. Johnson added that the debris flows can travel over a mile, carrying rocks, trees and other hazards.Widespread flooding and landslides in western North Carolina impeded rescue missions on Saturday, as did the lack of cellphone service. More than 600,000 homes and businesses statewide remained without power on Saturday evening, according to Poweroutage.us. Non-emergency traffic on the roads was also choking the response, officials said. The North Carolina Department of Transportation said all roads in the region should be considered closed, noting that Interstates 40 and 26 were impassable: "Travel in this area for non-emergency purposes is hindering needed emergency response,” it said. In Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, disaster response teams described what they referred to as "biblical flooding" across the western region as they continued to attempt rescues. "Swift water rescues are still occurring throughout the county, and we have, we have exceeded over 150 rescues," Ryan Cole, the county's assistant emergency services director told NPR member station Blue Ridge Public Radio. Electricity, water and cell service was shut off to a large part of the region, including in Asheville. Officials have not said when they expect power and water to return. Resident Richie Gedihovich told Blue Ridge Public Radio on Saturday that the Asheville area was in “full chaos.” “Everything is so flooded. There are telephone lines down all over the place, trees have hit houses,” Gedihovich said. “Three massive pine trees fell on one house on Brookshire Road. It’s been tough.” Heavy rains from Helene set a record in Atlanta, which received its highest 48-hour rainfall on record over the past two days. The Georgia Climate Office tweeted that the area saw 11.12 inches of rain as of mid-day Friday, beating a previous record of 9.59 inches set in 1886.In North Carolina, the rainfall totals Friday afternoon were staggering: 29.58 inches for Busick, N.C.; 24.20 for nearby Mount Mitchell State Park; about 13 inches in Boone, some 55 miles away.The storm dumped more than 8 inches of rain in Wilmington and wrought serious damage to coastal homes and small buildings, as well as agricultural fields.
1,000 missing, at least 66 dead, as Hurricane Helene devastates southern Appalachia - The death toll from Hurricane Helene stands at 66 dead across five states. This number is certain to rise as the wind and flood waters from Florida to Ohio begin to recede over the coming days, and more bodies are found. Ten people are confirmed dead in Buncombe County, North Carolina, where the city of Asheville, the largest in the region, is located. “We have biblical devastation throughout the county,” said Ryan Cole, an emergency official for Buncombe County. “This is the most significant natural disaster that any one of us has ever seen.” At least 1,000 people are reported missing in the southern Appalachian areas of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee after the giant storm dumped upwards of three feet of rain on the region. There are at least 11 reported deaths in Florida as of Saturday, with 17 dead in Georgia and another 23 in South Carolina. One death was reported in Virginia. As much of the affected area in the state is impassable due to flooding and mudslides and hundreds or thousands are without power and communications, this number is sure to rise precipitously in the coming days as recovery continues. Already social media is filling with pictures of loved ones who are missing, many of whom were known to be fleeing ahead of massive torrents of flood water plummeting down the steep slopes of the Smoky Mountains and the Blue Ridge Mountains into the valleys below. The first Category 4 hurricane to land in Florida’s Big Bend Region brought record storm surges, in some cases, such as in Tampa Bay, breaking the record set by Hurricane Idalia only 13 months ago. The storm quickly intensified over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday from a Category 1 storm to a massive Category 4 storm in less than 24 hours before slamming into Florida and then hurtling northward into Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee. The rapid strengthening of Helene and the huge volumes of water it swept up and then dropped like a series of bombs on countryside far from the Gulf of Mexico were entirely predictable, given the analysis of climate change made by countless scientific and meteorological studies. Yet nothing has been done to prepare ahead of time. On Friday, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper closed all roads in the western part of the state. Currently, over 400 roads remain closed. The Tennessee Department of Transportation is warning motorists to avoid travel in the area as all roads are considered hazardous. The devastation to the transportation system in the region alone is immense.
- ● A large section of eastbound Interstate 40, the only major transportation artery through the Smoky Mountains connecting Tennessee to North Carolina, collapsed into the Pigeon River close to the Tennessee/North Carolina border.
● US Route 74, the North Carolina highway that connects the cities of Asheville, Charlotte and Wilmington to the Atlantic seaboard, is completely inundated by flood water.
● Interstate 26 is washed out at Exit 40 on the border between North Carolina and Erwin, Tennessee.
● In Tennessee, a video captured the moment the Kisner Bridge on Highway 107 in the town of Afton succumbed to the racing waters of the Nolichucky River. - Airlift operations are underway to rescue residents cut off by the flooding and damage to secondary and tertiary roads.
- ● In Tennessee, 54 people were rescued from the roof of Unicoi County Hospital as the town was quickly overcome by the flood waters from the Nolichucky River.
● Supplies are being airlifted into Asheville, North Carolina, which has been isolated by flood and storm damage from Helene. The city’s historic Biltmore Village was inundated by flood waters. Residents took refuge on rooftops to escape the rising waters of the French Broad and Swannanoa rivers.
Power, communications and water systems infrastructure have been decimated by wind, mudslides and flooding. More than 700,000 in the region are without power, and cell phone service west of Interstate 77 is poor to nonexistent, according to local media. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which manages river systems in Tennessee and parts of North Carolina, estimates water levels reached 8 feet over the record elevation. While the walls of both dams managed to withstand the immense pressure of the rising water, the extent of the damage to the structures is just emerging.
Lake Lure Dam 'high hazard' and needed repairs at time Helene hit- Concern about Helene turned to potential catastrophe when officials announced the possibility of the Lake Lure dam failing and flooding more homes around the town last Friday. Officials now say the dam is stable but the fear of it failing left many families terrified for their loved ones. According to multiple records WBTV found on the Town of Lake Lure’s webpage, the dam does not meet current state safety requirements. That is common for a dam originally completed in 1926 after safety requirements were updated in the 1970′s but it underlies the safety risks that exists acorss the state any time a hurricane hits. The Town of Lake Lure sent an emergency message at 9 a.m. instructing people around the lake to evacuate as water was spilling over the dam, called “overtopping.” A similar message was sent out by Rutherford County Emergency Management around 10 a.m. At 10:56 Rutherford County Emergency Management sent an alert warning “dam failure imminent!! Evacuate to higher ground immediately.” With the lack of cell service in the area, that left many people worried about the safety of family members living around Lake Lure. Records show, the town was in the planning process to build a new dam as well as fixing many of the mechanisms on the current dam that play a crucial role in maintaining water levels during flooding events like Helene. Records the WBTV Investigates Team found through the Town of Lake Lure, which owns the dam, and North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, which regulates dam safety, show numerous safety issues the town was working to fix. Town officials are working with engineers to design and build a new dam 100 yards down the river from the nearly century-old existing dam. In the interim, work was happening on the existing dam. That includes fixing or installing critical safety features such as an upgraded valve that would serve as a reservoir drain, replacing gates used to control lake levels. But town records indicate those projects hadn’t been completed by the time Helene struck. The Lake Lure Dam is far from a standout in the safety risk it poses if it fails. NCDEQ records show more than 1,500 dams across North Carolina are considered high hazard, meaning there’s a risk of significant causualties and property damage if it fails.
Lake Lure Dam in Western NC stable after imminent failure warning; emergency repairs begin - The Lake Lure Dam, which was feared doomed to collapse on Friday, is stable and emergency repairs are set to begin. At the peak of Helene’s rains, a warning went out that the Lake Lure Dam was at imminent risk of failing, as water spilled over the top of its 124-foot tall structure. An evacuation order was issued for residents below, but the dam held. On Friday, an engineer assessed the dam and found the water level receding. By Sunday, the water level was lowered an additional 3 and a half feet, so emergency repairs could be made, according to Josh Kastrinsky, spokesman for the NC Department of Environmental Quality. “The structure remained intact following the storm,” Kastrinsky said in an email. “Water caused erosion on both sides of the dam abutments but it was not undermined.” The town of Lake Lure announced on its Facebook page Sunday afternoon that the dam is stable. Previously, town officials discouraged any unnecessary travel to the area and said to stay off Lake Lure roads unless trying to leave town. The Lake Lure Dam was assessed Saturday by Schnabel Engineering and a plan for emergency repairs was determined, the town said. Officials from FEMA are also expected to asses the dam. The dam, built in 1925 and 1926, is a tourist and recreational destination for the rural county. It also harnesses the Broad River and two creeks to power a hydroelectric plant producing electricity for Duke Energy from two hydroelectric turbine generators. Dam workers typically lower the water in the lake by as much as 8 inches below the normal lake level before big storms, according to a document posted on the town’s website. The town manager approves lowering the lake by more than that amount, it notes. Most residents in Lake Lure remain without power, as of Sunday, according to town officials.
TVA: Peak water flow at Nolichuckey Dam far exceeded Niagra Falls - Further details were released regarding the massive water flow that resulted from the rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene.Will Reid, deputy commissioner and chief engineer of TDOT, said Sunday. The peak daily water flow of Niagra Falls is around 700,000 gallons per second. The flow rate over the Nolichuckey Dam was estimated at 1.3 million gallons per second. The Nolichuckey Dam is around 482′ wide. Niagra Falls is 3,640′ wide.TVA estimates that the river was rising at two feet per hour with over a million gallons pouring over the dam every second.The Nolichucky Dam peak water elevation hit 1266.0’, which is 9.5 feet over the record elevation of 1256.5’ set on November 6, 1977. The 1.3 million gallons per second flow rate at 11 p.m. on September 27, more than doubles the flow rate of 613,000 gallons per second from the previous regulated release in 1977.On September 27 at about 11:30 p.m. ET, out of an abundance of caution, TVA issued a Condition Red alert, which meant that a breach was imminent. The alert was issued due to a lack of visibility at the dam and high water levels at the dam that were rising at that time about 2 feet per hour. Once water levels began to reduce and daylight came, the warning was lifted.
Helene flooding strands hundreds of North Carolina residents as storm’s death toll reaches 95 | CNN -- The Southeast is grappling with widespread devastation after Helene made landfall Thursday as the strongest hurricane on record to slam into Florida’s Big Bend region and tore through multiple states, killing at least 95 people, knocking out power to millions and trapping families in floodwaters. In hard-hit North Carolina, days of unrelenting flooding have turned roads into waterways, left many without basic necessities and strained state resources. Here’s the latest:
- • At least 95 dead across 6 states: Deaths have been reported in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. At least 36 people are dead in North Carolina, according to county and state officials. At least 25 are dead in South Carolina, including two firefighters in Saluda County, authorities said. In Georgia, at least 17 people have died, two of them killed by a tornado in Alamo, according to a spokesperson for Gov. Brian Kemp. In Florida, at least 11 people have died, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Saturday, including several people who drowned in Pinellas County. Two people have died in Virginia, officials said Sunday, and four deaths have been reported in Tennessee.
- • Scores of missing persons reports filed amid communication outages: Officials in Buncombe County, North Carolina – where at least 30 people have died – have received about 600 missing persons reports through an online form, County Manager Avril Pinder said Sunday. Former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate encouraged people not to lose hope. Communications being out and loved ones being unreachable “doesn’t necessarily mean the worst has happened,” he told CNN on Sunday, adding people will be reunited once cell phone reception and internet are restored. The state’s telecommunications partners activated disaster roaming on all networks, meaning “any phone on any carrier can access any network to place calls,” state Emergency Management Director William Ray said. “Although we know we have lost lives, we generally see more people that are missing or unaccounted for because of communication,” Fugate said.
- • Hundreds of roads closed in the Carolinas, hampering water delivery: About 300 roads are closed in North Carolina and another 150 are closed in South Carolina, acting Federal Highway Administrator Kristin White of the US Department of Transportation said Sunday. North Carolina officials on Sunday acknowledged those closures have hampered delivery of water supplies to communities in need, like the city of Weaverville in Buncombe County, which is without both power and water, Mayor Patrick Fitzsimmons said.
- • Millions without power in Southeast: About 2.1 million power customers are in the dark in South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Virginia, according to PowerOutage.us. On Sunday, Michael Callahan, president of Duke Energy’s utility operations in South Carolina, said infrastructure repairs need to precede power restoration efforts. Still, the utility hoped to have most of its customers in that state back up by Friday, he said.
- • President to visit disaster areas: President Joe Biden was briefed by FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell and Homeland Security Adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall on recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene and will visit impacted communities from the storm later this week “as soon as it will not disrupt emergency response operations,” the White House said Sunday evening.
- • ‘It looks like a bomb went off’ in Georgia: Helene “spared no one,” Gov. Brian Kemp said Saturday. Among the 17 people who died in Georgia were a mother and her 1-month-old twin boys, a 7-year-old boy and 4-year-old girl, and a 58-year-old man, according to Kemp. “It looks like a tornado went off, it looks like a bomb went off,” Kemp said.
- • ‘Complete obliteration’ along Florida coast: Days after Helene slammed Florida on Thursday night as a Category 4 hurricane, countless residents are displaced, boil water notices are in place in multiple counties and power is out for over 147,000 customers. “You see some just complete obliteration for homes,” DeSantis said Saturday, noting Helene impacted some of the same communities affected by hurricanes Idalia last year and Debby last month.
- • Federal government declares public health emergency in NC: North Carolina on Sunday joined Florida and Georgia as states where the federal government has declared a public health emergency. “We are working closely with state and local health authorities, as well as with our partners across the federal government, and stand ready to provide additional public health and medical support,” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra said. The government has deployed 200 people who are assessing how hospitals, nursing homes and other care facilities were affected, as well as sending medical care task forces. The announcement comes as President Joe Biden has approved federal disaster declarations for Florida, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee and, on Sunday, Virginia.
- • Additional rain expected: Helene dumped “staggering” amounts of rain, including 12 to 14 inches in South Carolina, 12 to 16 inches in Florida and 12 to 14 inches in Georgia, said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service. The storm became a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, but rainfall is expected to continue this weekend across parts of the southern Appalachian region: Additional totals of half an inch are expected for areas of western North Carolina, including Asheville, and eastern Tennessee, including Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg. Up to 2 inches is possible for portions of Virginia and West Virginia through Monday. “Additional rainfall is not expected to exacerbate ongoing flooding but may lead to excessive runoff due to saturated soils,” the weather service said Sunday morning.
Since Helene started swamping the region, it’s turned neighborhoods into lakes, lifted cars like toys, snapped trees like twigs and left businesses underwater. Piles of thick mud and floating debris blocked streets as torrential rains collapsed roadways and washed out bridges. It’s left hundreds of people in North Carolina stranded in homes, hospitals or transportation systems, awaiting rescue. “The priority is getting people out,” North Carolina Gov. Cooper told CNN affiliate Spectrum News. “And getting supplies in.”But officials face a major hurdle: “Everything is flooded. It is very difficult for them to see exactly what the problems are,” Cooper said. On Friday, Stevie Hollander watched as floodwaters inundated his Asheville apartment complex, where he lives on the second floor with his sister and her fiancé. “The water almost reached us but thankfully went down,” he told CNN. Most residents on the first floor left before their units were submerged, while other relocated to stay with residents on higher floors.Hollander and his family attempted to drive north Saturday, but road closures forced them to return to the apartment. The family only has four water bottles left and little nonperishable food, Hollander said. In Black Mountain, North Carolina, Sofia Grace Kunst contended with another problem: a landslide she said tore through the window and wall of a dining hall where she was playing Uno with six friends while on a weeklong trip. “I see this giant wave of like mud and trees and rocks just coming towards us,” Kunst told CNN, estimating it was 5 or 6 feet high. She ran into the main room of the dining hall, only to see the wall completely cave in. The group fled to the porch, where many of her peers were crying. Kunst sat in shock, barefoot.It was only then she realized she still had her Uno cards in hand. The group eventually trekked through muddy water, seeking refuge in a parking lot on higher ground. They were stranded there for some time, but eventually reached a shelter.
Grid Apocalypse Hits Carolinas: 360 Substations Down, Power Restoration Could Take "Months" - Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), representing a district in the western portion of the state battered by Hurricane Helene, released apress release Sunday detailing the infrastructure devastation. The destructive path of #Helene has left extensive damage to@DukeEnergy infrastructure in the #NC mountains and Upstate #SC . We believe around 50% of remaining outages in these areas will require significant replacement and rebuilding of poles, lines and substation equipment. pic.twitter.com/b7eANjX0taEdwards said power outages remain widespread in Western North Carolina as of Sunday. Fast-forward to Wednesday morning, Poweroutage.US data shows more than 400,000 residents are without power in the region. He explained that 360 power substations "are out," indicating that "many of these substations were completely flooded, and Duke Energy is unable to assess the damage until the flooding has lowered, the water has been pumped out, and the equipment is thoroughly dried." What's piqued our interest is that the powering up America theme to power AI data centers and other electrification trends, such as EVs and onshoring manufacturing (as outlined in "The Next AI Trade"), has led to shortages and price increases in the transformer market. "Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure," National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher Killian McKenna said, who was recently quoted by PV Magazine. McKenna pointed out, "But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything."Other reasons for the transformer shortages besides power grid upgrades include raw material sourcing problems, pandemic-related supply chain woes and backlogs, labor constraints, shipping issues, and geopolitical tensions. Given all of this, Jesse D. Jenkins, an assistant professor and macro-energy systems engineering and policy expert at Princeton University, responded to the dire situation of a grid apocalypse playing out in the Southeast US: "This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure?" Making matters worse for residents of North Carolina, some X users are pointing out the Biden-Harris administration supplied transformers to Ukraine. It's unclear if these transformers were drained for US stockpiles. Meanwhile, others note that Ukraine uses a different electrical system than the US.
Hundreds Still Missing in Mountain Towns After ‘History-Making’ Helene - NY Times -- National Guard units swarmed over the North Carolina mountains in helicopters, high-water vehicles and a cargo plane on Monday, joining the desperate effort to deliver food, water and emergency supplies to remote mountain communities hit hard by Hurricane Helene. Officials said that hundreds of residents remained missing along washed-out roads and in muddy ravines that couldn’t be reached by vehicle or by phone. “There are reports of up to 600 people unaccounted for because they can’t be contacted,” President Biden said from the White House. “God willing, they’re alive.” Mr. Biden promised long-term aid and told reporters that he would visit North Carolina for an official briefing and to survey the damage from the air on Wednesday. The president announced his plans as the death toll from what he described as a “history-making” storm rose to at least 111 across six states. Almost a third of those killed were in the county surrounding Asheville, N.C. Though the hurricane made landfall in northwestern Florida late Thursday as a Category 4 storm, with winds of 140 miles per hour, the damage spread far and wide. Powerful winds and flash flooding leveled communities far from any coastline. Several storm survivors took shelter with Jim Kempton and Tara Normington in their home in Gerton, N.C., about 12 miles from Asheville. The couple live in a narrow gorge where the fast-moving floodwaters set off a landslide, wiping out four nearby houses and trapping their neighbors in debris. “Ten-ton and 20-ton boulders can be moved by water like pebbles,” Mr. Kempton said. He and others used saws, house jacks and pry bars to free their trapped neighbors, several of whom had broken bones and other injuries. They were airlifted out the next day by helicopter. The damage was especially dire in eastern Tennessee and in western North Carolina, where Gov. Roy Cooper said the death toll would most likely continue to rise. Homes and neighborhoods across the region were reduced to splinters by floodwaters and landslides, and Asheville’s drinking water system was badly damaged. “The devastation was beyond belief,” “And even when you prepare for something like this — this is something that’s never happened before in western North Carolina.”The Gilded Age-era Biltmore Estate in Asheville, one of the region’s best-known landmarks and tourist attractions, was closed indefinitely to assess property damage, its owners said, and the nearby Biltmore Village, which originally housed employees of the estate’s builder, George Vanderbilt, was submerged by floodwaters.Officials were working to truck in drinkable water for Asheville’s 94,000 residents, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said. But the lack of cellphone communication in many spots, along with widespread power outages and blocked roads, has left officials unsure of the extent of the damage in hard-to-reach areas.There were power and phone service outages across the South and beyond. More than two million customers were still without electricity by midday Monday from Florida to Ohio, with the most in South Carolina, according to the tracking site poweroutage.us.FEMA said that more than 100 roads had been cleared across North Carolina by Monday morning, but nearly 300 remained impassable, along with more than 100 each in South Carolina and Georgia. At least 100 people were missing in Tennessee, Patrick C. Sheehan, the director of Tennessee’s emergency management agency, said at news conference on Monday. He expects that the number would grow. At least 11,000 homes were without power, he said, and drinking water was scarce in many places. Aviators from the Tennessee National Guard had rescued more than 100 people by Monday afternoon, and had transported over 34,000 pounds of drinking water, food, generators and other equipment. Helene’s rains left some substations underwater in the hardest-hit areas of western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina served by Duke Energy, said Jeff Brooks, a spokesman for the utility. Damage to equipment in some spots will require workers to completely rebuild parts of the electric grid, he said. “The force of the water coming through damaged the equipment beyond repair, and in some cases it’s not there anymore,”
Catastrophic floods caused by Hurricane “Helene” leave Asheville isolated as U.S. death toll surpasses 120 - (3 videos) Destructive floods and powerful winds caused by the remnants of Hurricane “Helene” have cut off Asheville, North Carolina, leaving the city without power, communication, and road access. As of Monday, September 30, the death toll across six states has exceeded 120, with over 700 people still missing.
- Meteorologists at the NWS Greenville-Spartanburg office described the event as ‘historic’ and the worst in the history of their office.
- Local officials in Buncombe County, which includes Asheville, reported at least 35 fatalities.
- Rescue efforts continue, but collapsed roads, damaged infrastructure, and widespread flooding are slowing the response in one of the worst-hit areas.
- Authorities warn the death toll could rise as isolated communities are reached.
Hurricane Helene's aftermath: Supplies arrive in North Carolina as storm's death toll tops 130 (AP) — Widespread devastation left behind by Hurricane Helene came to light Monday across the South, revealing a wasteland of splintered houses, crushed cargo containers and mud-covered highways in one of the worst storms in U.S. history. The death toll topped 130. A crisis was unfolding in western North Carolina, where residents stranded by washed-out roads and by a lack of power and cellular service lined up for fresh water and a chance to message loved ones days after the storm that they were alive. At least 133 deaths in six Southeastern states have been attributed to the storm that inflicted damage from Florida’s Gulf Coast to the Appalachian Mountains in Virginia.The toll steadily rose as emergency workers reached areas isolated by collapsed roads, failing infrastructure and widespread flooding. During a briefing Monday, White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall suggested as many as 600 people hadn’t been accounted for as of Monday afternoon, saying some might be dead.Government officials and aid groups worked to deliver supplies by air, truck and even mule to the hard-hit tourism hub of Asheville and its surrounding mountain towns. At least 40 people died in the county that includes Asheville.The destruction and desperation were overwhelming. A flattened cargo container sat atop a bridge crossing a river with muddy brown water. A mass of debris, including overturned pontoon boats and splintered wooden docks and tree trunks covered the surface of Lake Lure, a picturesque spot tucked between the mountains outside Asheville. The North Carolina death toll included one horrific story after another of people who were trapped by floodwaters in their homes and vehicles or were killed by falling trees. A courthouse security officer died after being submerged inside his truck. A couple and a 6-year-old boy waiting to be rescued on a rooftop drowned when part of their home collapsed. Rescuers did manage to save dozens, including an infant and two others stuck on the top of a car in Atlanta. More than 50 hospital patients and staff in Tennessee were plucked by helicopter from the hospital rooftop in a daring rescue operation. Several main routes into Asheville were washed away or blocked by mudslides, including a 4-mile (6.4-kilometer) section of Interstate 40, and the city’s water system was severely damaged, forcing residents to scoop creek water into buckets so they could flush toilets. Sommerville Johnston planned on treating the neighborhood to venison stew from her powerless freezer before it goes bad. “Just bring your bowl and spoon,” she said. Officials warned that rebuilding would be lengthy and difficult. Helene roared ashore in northern Florida late Thursday as a Category 4 hurricane and quickly moved through Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee. The storm upended life throughout the Southeast, where deaths were also reported in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia.Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said Monday that shelters were housing more than 1,000 people.Officials implored travelers from coming into the region to keep the roads clear for emergency vehicles. More than 50 search teams spread throughout the region in search of stranded people. The storm unleashed the worst flooding in a century in North Carolina. Rainfall estimates in some areas topped more than 2 feet (61 centimeters) since Wednesday. Western North Carolina suffered relatively more devastation because that’s where the remnants of Helene encountered the higher elevations and cooler air of the Appalachian Mountains, causing even more rain to fall.Asheville and many surrounding mountain towns were built in valleys, leaving them especially vulnerable to devastating rain and flooding. Plus, the ground already was saturated before Helene arrived, said Christiaan Patterson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “By the time Helene came into the Carolinas, we already had that rain on top of more rain,” Along Florida’s Gulf Coast, several feet of water swamped the Clearwater Marine Aquarium, forcing workers to move two manatees and sea turtles. All of the animals were safe but much of the aquarium’s vital equipment was damaged or destroyed, said James Powell, the aquarium’s executive director. With at least 30 killed in South Carolina, Helene was the deadliest tropical cyclone to hit the state since Hurricane Hugo made landfall north of Charleston in 1989, killing 35 people.
Photos: Hurricane Helene leaves flooding and destruction across the southeastern U.S. --Hurricane Helene ravaged communities across the southeastern United States as mass flooding and brutal winds descended on Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. As of Sunday, the death toll climbed towards 100 after Hurricane Helene knocked out power for millions, destroyed roads and bridges and caused dramatic flooding from Florida to Virginia, according to Reuters. Evacuations began before the storm made landfall and have been ongoing in the days since.President Joe Biden said that he and Vice President Kamala Harris were committed to deploying all resources necessary to aid the recovery."As we turn toward recovery efforts, we will make certain that no resource is spared to ensure that families, businesses, schools, hospitals, and entire communities can quickly begin their road to rebuilding," he said Saturday.Here are photos of some of the wreckage left in the wake of Helene:
Thirty killed in one county after hurricane hits North Carolina -At least 30 people have died and scores more are unaccounted for in just one county in North Carolina, after Hurricane Helene tore across the state and caused catastrophic flooding. A clearer image of the damage the storm inflicted after barrelling through Florida and Georgia emerged throughout Sunday, with Buncombe County appearing to be the hardest hit area. “We have biblical devastation,” said Ryan Cole, an emergency official in the county, which contains the mountain city of Asheville. "This is the most significant natural disaster that any one of us has ever seen." At least 116 people have died nationwide since the hurricane made landfall in Florida on Thursday, according to the BBC's US partner CBS, and that figure is expected to rise as officials reach more areas. Helene began as a hurricane - the most powerful on record to hit Florida's Big Bend, and moved north into Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee. The majority of deaths have been confirmed in North and South Carolina where Helene landed as a tropical storm. On Sunday evening, officials in North Carolina said 30 people had died in Buncombe County alone. Crews across the state are battling power and mobile service outages, downed trees and hundreds of closed roads. Some residents returned to find their homes entirely destroyed on Sunday. And with some 1,000 people still unaccounted for in Buncombe County, relatives are working to locate family members with limited mobile service. "This storm has brought catastrophic devastation... of historic proportions," North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said. The American Red Cross has opened more than 140 shelters for those in south-eastern states who evacuated their homes. More than 2,000 people are currently using the shelters, the organisation said on Sunday.The search for survivors is ongoing and federal emergencies have been declared in six states, including Florida and Georgia. Some of the areas most affected by the storm lie in states expected to be decisive in November's presidential election, namely Georgia and North Carolina. The White House has said Vice President Kamala Harris will visit affected areas as soon as she can do so without affecting rescue operations. Meanwhile Donald Trump's campaign said he would visit the Georgia city of Valdosta on Monday. Although Helene has weakened significantly, forecasters warn that high winds, flooding and the threat of tornadoes could continue.
A North Carolina mountain town is wrecked by Hurricane Helene — Flattened homes, impassable roads, swamped fields, downed power lines, raw emotions.Nearly a week after Hurricane Helene pummeled this small mountain town 20 miles east of Asheville, residents and business owners were trickling back Wednesday to see what was left and what could be salvaged. Beverly and Baxter Eller barely escaped the floodwaters that reached eye level as they fled their home of 37 years and drove off in search of higher ground, uncertain if they would ever return. When they did, they found their home surrounded by a knee-high moat of muddy water, the garage lifted from its foundation and spun around. Beverly Eller, 68, who has been staying in shelters the last few days, said she was surprised by the extent of the damage.“I don’t think anybody, including the government, thought this was what we were gonna get,” she said.The death toll from Hurricane Helene rose to 176 on Wednesday as President Joe Biden directed the Pentagon to deploy up to 1,000 active-duty soldiers to North Carolina to help deliver food, water and other supplies to isolated communities like Swannanoa.Heavy flooding tore apart structures and tossed cars in Swannanoa. In North Carolina alone, at least 90 people were reported dead Wednesday and thousands more were still missing.Search and rescue teams used bright orange spray paint to mark the structures and cars they had already searched for bodies.In Swannanoa, the floodwaters were at least 10-feet high in some spots, local law enforcement officials told NBC News."We're going to every part of our community, knocking on each door and asking residents if they need anything or want to be evacuated," said Swannanoa Fire Chief Anthony Penland, who has been sleeping on a cot in his office. "Some parts of our community are inaccessible due to the roads being washed out. The infrastructure is gone," Penland said. The Whitson Avenue Bridge that crosses the Swannanoa River collapsed when the river swelled with a sudden downpour of 9 inches of rain and overflowed its banks, he said.Outside, in tiny downtown Swannanoa, hundreds of emergency workers and construction crews were working nonstop to restore the electricity and city services. Brown mud coated the few buildings still standing. Many other structures were reduced to splinters. And whenever the wind kicked up, the smell of dust and dirt filled the nostrils. Longtime resident Robert Starks, a 64-year-old disabled Army veteran, shook his head in dismay as he roamed down streets littered with destroyed cars and household items that had been flushed out of flooded homes.“To see people losing homes and businesses hurts deep inside," he said. "A lot of folks are devastated and crying and bodies are still being recovered.” Starks said he hasn't dared use the toilet in his apartment because it's the only fresh water he has left since the storm struck.“People didn’t heed the warning to get out," he said. "We knew there were flash flood warnings but we had no idea this place would get turned upside down.”Starks said he hopes his brother in Pine Bluff, Arkansas will come get him.“It’s gonna be a long time before they get the electric back on,” Starks said.
"A Post-Apocalyptic Scene": North Carolina Communities 'Wiped Off The Map' By Helene, Governor Says The governor of North Carolina said that “hundreds of roads” were destroyed and that entire communities were “wiped off the map” because of storm Helene last week and over the weekend.“Consider the roads closed in western North Carolina,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told CNN on Sept. 30. “We do not need sightseers coming in to observe the damage. We ask you not to come in unless you are on a specific mission to help with rescue.”The North Carolina Department of Transportation warned in a Sept. 30 post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that “all roads in Western NC should be considered closed to all non-emergency travel.”In a separate post, the agency included photos of area roads that were collapsed, washed out, or blocked by debris.- Southeastern Buncombe County; South of N.C. 9 Scenes like this are common across Western NC today as crews are spread out for #HeleneNC cleanup and recovery. All roads in Western NC should be considered closed to all non-emergency travel. pic.twitter.com/lqgTgfr3Og In the Asheville area, which was especially hard-hit by the storm, people who are still seeking to evacuate can use Interstate 40 and Interstate 26 East, the department stated. Residents in other areas need to consult local emergency officials first before traveling.The mayor of Asheville described the aftermath as a “post-apocalyptic scene.”Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer told reporters on Sept. 30 that the city is “seeing just piles of people’s houses that were destroyed. Buildings that were destroyed. Cars overturned.”“The power lines look like spaghetti. It’s hard to describe the chaos that it looks like,” she said.“We are cut off from highway access from three of the four major highways into Asheville. Some resources are having to be flown in. ... I can’t even think about a time frame for how long it’s going to take to recover from this storm.” The storm killed more than 100 people across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia, and the death toll is expected to rise once rescue teams reach isolated towns and telecommunications are restored.“We know that death toll will rise,” Asheville’s mayor said. “We’ve heard accounts of people seeing houses floating down the river with people in them.”In North Carolina, some 300 roads were closed and more than 7,000 people have registered for Federal Emergency Management Agency assistance, officials said on Sept. 30. The National Guard was flying 1,000 tons of food and water to remote areas by plane and helicopter.North Carolina was coordinating 92 search-and-rescue teams from 20 states and the federal government, according to Cooper. Most efforts were in the Appalachian Mountains, which run through the western part of the state, where the storm ripped up roads, leveled trees, and tossed homes about. Tracking website PowerOutage.us shows that nearly 1 million people were without power in South Carolina and North Carolina. More than 450,000 were without power in Georgia, 73,000 lacked power in Virginia, and 64,000 had no power in Florida as of the morning of Oct. 1.Helene latest: Communities ‘wiped off map’ as 600 remain unaccounted for and officials beg for resources --At least 132 people have been killed after the hurricane slammed into Florida last Thursday then tore a path north, bringing catastrophic flooding and powerful winds. More than 600 people remain missing in a single North Carolina county.Deaths also have been reported in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Tennessee.In Buncombe County, North Carolina, at least 35 have died and fears are growing for around 600 people reported missing. Landslides have devastated the southern Appalachia region.North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper told CNN on Monday that communities there were “wiped off that map.” President Joe Biden said he plans to visit North Carolina on Wednesday. Millions have been left without power, communications cut off and hundreds of roads closed due to damage.Officials have warned of the challenges of getting crucial supplies such as water to those in need.This comes as Tropical Storm Kirk is likely to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on Thursday before tearing across large parts of the south and east, causing at least 116 deaths and destroying homes and property. Damaging wind gusts swept through Georgia on Friday, leaving more than half a million without power, and led to downed trees and major flooding.Four days after Helene hit, communities along North Carolina’s Swannanoa are still recovering. Rains from the storm caused the river to swell multiple feet beyond its normal levels, flooding historic mill homes along the river and washing away a bridge.Swannanoa is experiencing “total devastation” and the “community is destroyed,” Swannanoa Fire Chief Anthony Penland told Black Mountain News. “There goes the history of Swannanoa right there,” Penland said. “Our history is gone.”Researchers are warning communities across the U.S. to understand the lessons of Hurrican Helene.According to Daniel Aldrich, a Northeastern University researcher who serves as co-director of the school’s Global Resilience Institute, the storm showed how even inland communities can experience drastic flooding as a result of tropical storms and hurricanes.“Most people think about hurricanes as coastal problems — as opposed to what happens to inland communities,” Aldrich told the university’s website in reference to Asheville, North Carolina. “These inland hazards are going to be much more common in the future.”Especially amid the climate crisis.“The reality is huge proportions of our country, both coastal and mountain, are much more at risk from these natural hazards caused by climate change and extreme weather events,” he added. “So the very environment in which these floods and fires and heat waves are generated has changed.”Major U.S. retailers like Walmart, Lowe’s, and Home Depot are joining together to give millions of dollars worth of supplies and emergency relief work in communities impacted by Hurricane Helene.“This storm has created a life-altering path of destruction from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic — especially here in our home state of North Carolina,” Lowe’s chief executive Marvin Ellison told the Washington Post. “We will continue to help meet our communities’ urgent needs and help our neighbors during the long road to recovery ahead.”Lowe’s is giving $2m in aid and relief, and said it would be shipping high-priority items like generators and fans to impacted communities.Home Depot has pledged $2m of its own, and Walmart has committed three times that amount.The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has said that the severe flooding and subsequent devastation caused by Hurricane Helene is linked to the climate emergency.Deanne Criswell said that rising temperatures in the Gulf were causing conditions that caused “significant infrastructure damage” that had affected a multi-state area.Though the worst of Helene is now believed to have passed, recovery efforts in multiple communities are underway at pace.
Water and power outages from Helene test Carolinas and Georgia (AP) — Isolated and without electricity or phone service since Hurricane Helene inflicted devastation across the Southeast nearly a week ago, residents in the mountains of western North Carolina are relying on old-fashioned ways of communicating and coping. At the town square in Black Mountain, local leaders stood atop a picnic table shouting updates about when power might be restored. One woman took notes to pass along to her neighbors. Alongside a fencerow, a makeshift message board listed the names of people still missing. In other areas, mules delivered medical supplies to mountaintop homes. Residents collected water from creeks and cooked over camp stoves. And across the region, people were looking after each other. President Joe Biden, after surveying the area by helicopter on Wednesday, praised the Democratic governor of North Carolina and the Republican governor of South Carolina for their responses to the storm, saying that in the wake of disasters, “we put politics aside.”While government cargo planes brought food and water into the hardest-hit areas and rescue crews waded through creeks searching for survivors, those who made it through the storm, whose death toll has topped 180, leaned on one another — not technology. In remote mountain areas, helicopters hoisted the stranded to safety while search crews moved toppled trees so they could look door to door for survivors. In some places, homes teetered on hillsides and washed-out riverbanks.Nearly a week after the storm, more than 1.1 million customers still had no power in the Carolinas and Georgia, where Helene struck after barreling over Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane. Deaths have been reported in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, in addition to the Carolinas.“I didn’t know where I was going, didn’t know what was going to happen next. But I got out and I’m alive,” said Robin Wynn, who lost power at her Asheville home early Friday and was able to grab a bag of canned goods and water before getting to a shelter despite water up to her knees. Sarah Vekasi is a potter who runs a store in Black Mountain called Sarah Sunshine Pottery, named after her normally bubbly personality. But these days she’s struggling with the trauma of Helene and uncertainty about the future of her business.“All I can say is that I’m alive. I’m not doing great. I’m not doing good. But I’m extremely grateful to be alive, especially when so many are not,” Vekasi said. One thing that makes her feel a little better is the fellowship of the daily town meeting at the square. “It’s incredible being able to meet in person,” Vekasi said after Wednesday’s session, where more than 150 people gathered.Martha Sullivan was taking careful notes at the meeting so she could share the information — roads reopened, progress in getting power restored, work on trying to get water flowing again — with others.Sullivan, who has lived in Black Mountain for 43 years, said her children invited her to come to Charlotte after the storm, but she wants to stay in her community and look after her neighbors.“I’m going to stay as long as I feel like I’m being useful,” Sullivan said.Eric Williamson, who works at First Baptist Church in Hendersonville, normally makes home visits to members who can’t physically get to church. This week, he’s their lifeline, delivering food that meets dietary restrictions and tossing out food that had spoiled.Beyond checking in on the essentials, he says it’s important to just socialize with folks in a moment like this to help them know they aren’t alone.He has a handwritten list of everyone he needs to visit. “They don’t have telephone service, even if they have a landline, a lot of that isn’t working,” Williamson said. “So we’re bringing them food and water, but also just bringing them a smile and a prayer with them just to give them comfort.”Volunteers in Asheville gathered on Wednesday before going out to help find people who have been unreachable because of phone and internet outages. They took along boxes of drinking water and instructions to return in person with their results.Even notifying relatives of people who died in the storm has been difficult.“That has been our challenge, quite honestly, is no cell service, no way to reach out to next of kin,” said Avril Pinder, an official in Buncombe County where at least 61 people have died. “We have a confirmed body count, but we don’t have identifications on everyone or next-of-kin notifications.”
'No one's come to check on us': Grandmother arrives to Asheville food bank in tears — A grandmother with her daughter and two young grandchildren arrived at a food bank in Asheville in tears this morning, saying the little ones haven't eaten in days. Tanya Peterson spoke with NBC's Antonia Hylton about the dire conditions her community in Candler has been left in since Helene hit. “We have no water, we have no power, no one’s coming through the small back areas and the back roads,” she explained. “That’s where we need the help, a lot of it. We’ve got trees down on the house, we’ve got big trees still on power lines.” “We’ve got people looting gas, coming through your yard, it’s awful, it’s awful and no one’s come through to check in on us. No one,” Peterson added tearfully. She said she can’t get through to county officials for help. Peterson said her mother is at home and is disabled with heart problems and her son-in-law's mother, who is on oxygen, has run out. She said that they've been running what little gas they have out of a car for their generator "to heat water up for the baby." Speaking on her family's needs she said: “They need food, they need water, the baby needs wipes. They need clean clothes or some kind of washing material we can wash with, my hand at least ... We need gas for the car, gas for the generator so we can get around to find this stuff for my mom, his mom and these children.” At the food bank she was able to stock up on food, water and baby wipes.
6 factory workers dead or missing in Eastern Tennessee after being kept on the job during Helene’s deluge - As flood waters in North Carolina and Tennessee continue to recede, search and rescue efforts are underway in earnest to locate the hundreds still missing after Hurricane Helene dumped more than two feet of rain on the mountain region. The number of confirmed dead stands at 160 across six states, but this number is expected to rise as rescue crews begin to reach areas cut off by fallen trees, damaged roads and bridges. A grim picture is beginning to emerge of the estimated 600 people still missing after the storm. The affected areas in eastern Tennessee are reporting nine deaths so far and 180 people missing. Among the fatalities and missing are six workers from Impact Plastics in Erwin who attempted to escape the swiftly rising water of the Nolichucky River. Impact Plastics made employees come in to work on Friday morning despite the imminent threat of flooding from Helene. Supervisors told the workers they were monitoring the situation. According to family members, employees were told to remain at work even as water was rising around their feet and their parking lot became impassable. Eleven employees attempted to escape in the back of a semi-truck driven by a worker from a neighboring business. The truck was overcome by flood waters sending all 11 workers into the rushing waters. Six workers were swept away. Two are confirmed dead with four others still missing. At least four of the missing are immigrants from Mexico. Local news reported one worker found refuge on top of a van long enough to call home and say good-bye to her children. Robert Jarvis, who was working at Impact Plastics on Friday, spoke with News 5 WCYB and confirmed that workers were told they could not leave despite the swiftly rising water from the river. Jarvis said the power went out suddenly and he received a text from a co-worker that the parking lot was flooding. When he asked a supervisor what he should do, he was told he could move his car to higher ground, but “it was still underwater, there was no dry ground in the parking lot,” he said. Upon returning to the building Jarvis asked if the workers could leave. The supervisor told him they could not leave until she spoke to “Gerry.” She was referring to the Impact Plastics founder and CEO Gerald O’Connor. Ten minutes later the woman told the workers they were free to go. “When they told us we could leave it was just too late. There was no way out.” Jarvis related his efforts to exit the parking lot, which was a single road out to the main road. Traffic was backed up as employees fled the property. When he heard someone had cut a hole in the fence to escape to I-26, Jarvis turned his car around, but it was immediately swept away by the rising water. He was saved when a vehicle equipped with four-wheel-drive was able to reach him and others who were overtaken by the water.
Hurricane Helene's death toll passes 160 as crews, cadaver dogs continue searches — Cadaver dogs and search crews trudged through knee-deep muck and debris in the mountains of western North Carolina on Tuesday looking for victims of Hurricane Helene, days after the storm carved a deadly and destructive path through the Southeast.Meanwhile, across the border in east Tennessee, a caravan including Gov. Bill Lee that was surveying damage outside the town of Erwin drove by a crew pulling two bodies from the wreckage, a grim reminder that the rescue and recovery operations are still very much ongoing and the death toll — already surpassing 160 — is likely to rise. The storm, which was one of the deadliest in U.S. history,knocked out power and cellular service in some towns and cities, leaving many people frustrated, hot and increasingly worried days into the ordeal. Some cooked food on charcoal grills or hiked to high ground in the hopes of finding a signal to let loved ones know they are alive.In Augusta, Georgia, Sherry Brown was converting power from the alternator of her car to keep her refrigerator running and taking “bird baths” with water she collected in coolers. In another part of the city, people waited in line more than three hours to try to get water from one of five centers set up to serve more than 200,000 people. The devastation was especially bad in the Blue Ridge Mountains, where at least 57 people died in and around Asheville, a tourism haven known for its art galleries, breweries and outdoor activities.“Communities were wiped off the map,” North Carolina’s governor, Roy Cooper, said at a news conference Tuesday.In Swannanoa, a small community outside Asheville, receding floodwaters revealed cars stacked on top of others and trailer homes that had floated away during the storm. Roads were caked with mud and debris and pockmarked by sinkholes.Exhausted emergency crews worked around the clock to clear roads, restore power and phone service, and reach those still stranded by the storm, which killed at least 159 people in six states, including many who were hit by falling trees or trapped in flooded cars and homes. Nearly half of the deaths were in North Carolina, while dozens of others were in South Carolina and Georgia.More than 150,000 households have registered for assistance with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and that number is expected to rise rapidly in the coming days, said Frank Matranga, an agency representative. Nearly 2 million ready-to-eat meals and more than a million liters of water have been sent to the hardest-hit areas, he said. The storm unleashed the worst flooding in a century in North Carolina, dumping more than an estimated 2 feet of rain in places.Cooper's administration said Tuesday that more than two dozen water plants remained closed and were not producing water.Active-duty U.S. military units may be needed to assist the long-term recovery, he said, adding that Biden had given “the green light” to mobilizing military assets in the near future. A section of one of the region's main arteries, Interstate 40, reopened Tuesday after a mudslide was cleared, but a collapsed stretch near North Carolina's border with Tennessee remained closed. Residents and business owners wore masks and gloves while clearing debris Tuesday in Hot Springs, where almost every building along the tiny town's main street was heavily damaged.Sarah Calloway, who owns the deli and gourmet grocery Vaste Riviere Provisions, said the storm arrived in town frighteningly quickly. She helped fill sandbags the day the night before, but they turned out to be useless. The water rose so rapidly that even though she and others were in an apartment on an upper floor, she feared they would not be safe. They called to request a rescue from a swift water team.“They tried to get to us, and at that point they couldn’t,” she said. “Luckily, that was when the water started to recede.”“It was really challenging to watch how quickly it rose up and then just to watch whole buildings floating down the river. It was something I can’t even describe,” she said.In the Black Mountain Mobile Home Park in Swannanoa on Tuesday, Carina Ramos and Ezekiel Bianchi were overwhelmed by the damage. The couple, their children and dog fled in the predawn darkness on Friday as the Swannanoa River’s rapidly rising waters began flooding the bottom end of the mobile home park. By then, trees were blocking the roads and the couple abandoned their three vehicles, all of which flooded. The widespread damage and outages affecting key communications infrastructure left many people without stable access to the internet and cellular service, the Federal Communications Commission said.Mayor Zeb Smathers of Canton, North Carolina, expressed frustration Tuesday that so many of his constituents were still without cellphone service with no clear timetable for when it would be restored.“People are walking the streets of Canton with their phones up in the air trying to catch a cellphone signal like it’s a butterfly,” he told The Associated Press. “Every single aspect of this response has been extremely crippled by lack of cellphone communication. The one time we absolutely needed our cellphones to work they failed.Teams from Verizon were working to repair downed cell towers, damaged fiber cables and provide alternative forms of connectivity across the region, the company said in a statement.AT&T, meanwhile, said it launched “one of the largest mobilizations of our disaster recovery assets for emergency connectivity support.” The efforts to restore service was made more challenging by the region’s terrain and spread-out population, said David Zumwalt, president and CEO of the Association for Broadband Without Boundaries. Across Georgia, Helene’s inland path knocked out power and shattered lives from Valdosta to Augusta, where a line of cars waiting to get water Tuesday stretched at least a half-mile down the road. With at least 36 killed in South Carolina, Helene passed the 35 people who were killed in the state after Hurricane Hugo made landfall north of Charleston in 1989.When Tennessee Gov. Lee flew to the eastern part of the state to survey damage on Tuesday, residents said the governor and his entourage were the first help they had seen since the storm hit.“Where has everyone been?" one frustrated local asked. "We have been here alone."
Drone video shows Chimney Rock destroyed by massive flood, U.S. - (video) Hurricane “Helene” wreaked havoc in Chimney Rock, North Carolina, from September 25 to 27, 2024, dumping approximately 360 mm (14 inches) of rain and causing severe flooding. During this period, the Broad River overflowed, destroying the community of around 125 people. The event occurred between September 25 and 27 when Hurricane “Helene” made landfall and began to devastate areas from Florida to western North Carolina, including Chimney Rock, a small village tucked in the Blue Ridge Mountains. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the region around Asheville, North Carolina, approximately 30 km (18 miles) from Chimney Rock, received a total of 360 mm (14 inches) of rain during this period, causing the Broad River to flood and inundate the city on the morning of September 27, prompting the deployment of emergency teams to aid residents. https://twitter.com/TheEagleMesseng/status/1841384474044416068 https://twitter.com/AgentisGeop/status/1841400596294783028 “Our little community of about 125 people… every single business has been either destroyed or severely damaged. Many of them are damaged to the point where they’ll have to be completely rebuilt,” O’Leary said. “It’s devastating. The whole community of Chimney Rock is changed forever,” said Mayor Peter O’Leary. According to Rutherford County Emergency Management, over 100 people were rescued from Chimney Rock. Pamlico County staff in Chimney Rock has successfully rescued four individuals and evacuated 106 people, including two dogs and two cats. There has been massive destruction of infrastructure with the pavement and roadway of U.S. 64 washed away in front of the Village of Chimney Rock Public Parking lot and the Burntshirt Vineyards Tasting Room and Bistro, which are located on a hilltop. “At Chimney Rock Park entrance, the river’s about 91 m (300 feet) wide,” said Shields, working in Chimney Rock. “There’s no road—it’s gone, all the houses from there up, gone. The Flower Bridge, gone.” An aerial view showed the entrance to the historic mountain town completely devastated.
Hurricane Helene's death toll reaches 182, the deadliest storm since Katrina --Hurricane Helene’s death toll has risen to 189 — a number only expected to rise as hundreds remain unaccounted for.The staggering count — which makes Helene the deadliest storm to hit the US since Hurricane Katrina killed 1,392 in 2005 — covers six states across the south.North Carolina — one of the hardest hit due to severe flooding which washed out entire communities — has lost 95 people. South Carolina has had 39 deaths; Georgia has had 25; Florida has lost 19; Tennessee has lost 9; and Virginia has lost two, according to numbers tallied by CNN. Among the dead are a number of first responders and civil servants who remained at their posts in the face of the storm’s dangers.South Carolina firefighters Chad Satcher, 53, and Landon Bodie, 18, were killed Friday when a tree fell on their engine as they responded to a fire in the small town of Saluda.Sheriff’s Capt. Michelle Quintero — who ran Florida’s Madison County Jail, right in the path of the storm — was killed Sunday when a dam broke and she was swept away in the floodwaters. Quintero had been driving through Helene’s fallout to reach her jail and tend to inmates when the tragedy struck. North Carolina deputy Jim Lau was swept away in floodwaters as he was taking a lunch break on duty as a courthouse security officer in Macon County.Vernon Davis, a firefighter of 30 years, was killed Friday in Blackshear when a tree fell on his truck as he helped clear roads, according to First Coast News.And in eastern Tennessee, a police K-9 named Scotty was snatched by sudden floodwaters and lost.Hundreds still remain missing, however, suggesting the death count will keep climbing.In North Carolina’s Buncombe County alone, at least 600 were considered missing as of Tuesday with much of the mountainous region still cut off from the outside world — both physically from now-vanished roads and bridges, and with communications all but impossible from mass power outages.Across swaths of the south — especially in the Appalachian regions of Tennessee, Georgia, and North and South Carolina — the situation is much the same.Even after the bodies stop turning up from the wreckage, the storm’s death toll could continue rising over the coming years — even into the thousands, according to one study.Powerful storms like Hurricane Helene could lead directly to between 7,000 and 11,000 deaths over the 15 years succeeding them, according to a study published in Nature on Wednesday.The study looked at mortality rates following 501 tropical cyclones between 1930 and 1950, and found that income loss and health issues stemming directly from storms lead to an “undocumented mortality burden” leading to upwards of 5.1% of all deaths along the US’ Atlantic coast.Aside from Katrina, Helene’s death toll has no match across more than half a century of hurricanes.The only storm to claim more lives in that time was Hurricane Camille in 1969, which killed 256.
Helene aftermath: Biden directs up to 1,000 soldiers to assist in aid efforts; 190 dead in storm aftermath - What to know:
- The death toll from Hurricane Helene has risen to 190, and hundreds are still missing as a result of the storm and its aftermath, with many caught in historic flooding across Southeastern states.
- Parts of North Carolina have been devastated, with entire communities destroyed. At least 94 people are known to have died in the state.
- Power connections are being restored, but 1.3 million energy customers are still without power from Florida to Virginia.
- President Joe Biden is visiting North Carolina today. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is visiting Georgia. Republican nominee Donald Trump visited Georgia yesterday. Biden announced he has directed the Defense Department to deploy up to 1,000 active-duty soldiers to reinforce the North Carolina National Guard, aiding in the delivery of supplies, food and water to isolated communities.
- If you would like to help donate to survivors of Helene, several organizations, including the Red Cross and National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster, are seeking assistance from the public.
- NBC News Lite, a lightweight version of NBCNews.com available in emergency situations when internet connectivity may be limited, has been turned on for readers in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama.
As the death toll from Hurricane Helene climbs past 200, Trump, Harris and Biden campaign among the ruins -- The death toll from Hurricane Helene surpassed 200 Thursday as search and rescue teams made their way further into the broken mountain terrain of western North Carolina and Tennessee. According to the Associated Press, half of the storm’s victims are from North Carolina while dozens died in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. This makes Helene the deadliest storm to hit the continental United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The number of dead is expected to rise as hundreds of people are still unaccounted for nearly a week after the onslaught. Helene dropped 42 trillion gallons of rain on the Southeast. At 420 miles wide, Helene is the third largest hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast. Fueled by the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm rapidly grew to a Category 4 storm before it made landfall, as a consequence of climate change. Accuweather revised its initial estimate of the storm damage from $145 billion to $160 billion on Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, this will put Helene in the top five of the US’s costliest hurricanes. On Thursday, as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris posed this week in Georgia for the cameras amid the devastation, the White House published a press release boasting, “Biden-Harris Administration Provides More Than $20 Million to Hurricane Helene Survivors.” It does not require close reading of the document to realize the Biden administration did not cough up another $20 million dollars, a paltry sum given the magnitude of the devastation, for the survivors of Helene. The $20 million is from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the “flexible, upfront funding” boasted about in the first paragraph of the release indicates it is money coming from FEMA’s budget, specifically from its Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) which was reformed in March 2024 to provide “flexible funding” directly to survivors during a crisis. The fact is, Congress cut FEMA’s request for supplemental funding when it passed a stop-gap budget bill before it left for a six-week break on Wednesday, September 26. According to a report from Politico, FEMA’s disaster relief fund is facing a $2 billion deficit by the end of September. Former President Donald Trump made his own campaign stop in Valdosta, Georgia, this week on Monday where he postured about the limited federal response and posed in front of aid provided by Samaritan’s Purse, a nonprofit organization run by evangelist Franklin Graham. When he was president, Trump oversaw the disastrous response to Hurricane Maria in the US territory of Puerto Rico, which resulted in nearly 3,000 deaths in 2017. Trump infamously tossed paper towels to a crowd during a photo-op, expressing his disdain for the population of the impoverished island. Meanwhile, every day across the Southeast the historic extent of the devastation and its consequences is being revealed. As flood waters steadily recede in Tennessee and western North Carolina, the excess water is taxing the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA) dam and reservoir system downstream. Currently, TVA is spilling water from eight of nine dams on the Tennessee River until further notice. Water levels in some reservoirs reached their highest historic levels during Helene. Cities along the river, like Knoxville, Tennessee, were under a flood warning until Tuesday due to the amount of water moving through the system, causing high water on lakes and rivers downstream. The dam on Douglas Lake has been of particular concern to authorities due to high levels of runoff from the French Broad River filling the reservoir. The French Broad is responsible for catastrophic damage, including the washout of the eastbound lanes of Interstate 40 in North Carolina near Tennessee.
Satellite images reveal widespread destruction in North Carolina, U.S. – (video) Hurricane “Helene” has claimed over 205 lives since its landfall in Florida’s Big Bend on September 26, 2024, causing widespread destruction across six states. North Carolina has reported over 100 fatalities linked to the storm, and new satellite imagery has revealed significant destruction in the state. Maxar Technologies Inc., a space technology company based in Colorado, released imagery of the flooding by the hurricane as it swept through North Carolina. Helene made landfall near Perry in the Big Bend region of Florida at 23:10 local time (LT) on September 26, as a Category 4 hurricane, with record-breaking winds of 220 km/h (140 mph) and massive, life-threatening storm surges of up to 6.1 m (20 feet). As of 17:00 UTC on October 3, the storm has claimed over 205 lives, making it the deadliest hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland since 2005, when Hurricane “Katrina” claimed 1 392 lives. North Carolina has been the worst hit reporting over 100 fatalities, with Buncombe County alone recording more than 60 deaths linked to Helene. South Carolina has reported 39 deaths, Georgia has recorded 33 fatalities, and Florida has reported 19. More than 11 deaths have been reported in Tennessee, where over 85 people are still missing. Virginia has also reported two fatalities linked to Helene. As of 18:30 UTC today, there are 944 583 customers without power across five states. South Carolina has 361 143 customers affected, North Carolina reports 281 488 outages, Georgia 262 115, Virginia 22 143, and Florida 17 694. This translates to an estimated 2 456 000 people currently without power.
A week after Helene struck the Southeast, power outages and impassable roads stymie recovery as death toll reaches 213 -- A week ago, Helene was plowing into Florida, thrashing cities and towns on the Gulf Coast while millions of people ahead of the hurricane’s path were dealing with rains that preceded even more rain. Forecasters warned of impacts that would be felt far inland.In the Southeast, roads were covered with cars, not feet of water. Bridges were still up. The lights were still on. The town of Chimney Rock – home to a popular North Carolina state park, breathtaking views and iconic rock formation – was still looking forward to visitors.A week later, 213 people are confirmed dead from Helene across six states, making Helene the deadliest hurricane to hit the United States mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. That count includes the following deaths reported Thursday: 11 in North Carolina’s Buncombe County, where Asheville is situated (bringing that county’s overall toll to 72); eight in Georgia; two in South Carolina; and one in western Florida.Of the 213 killed, 106 were in North Carolina and 41 were in South Carolina.Those who survived are still in disbelief after the historic storm pummeled their homes and communities. Chimney Rock has been washed away, as have roads and bridges throughout the massive storm’s path.Survivors are pitching in for each other, bringing food and water, helping dig out and cut up knocked down trees. All are hoping for small victories – like getting their cell phone service back or finding a gas station that is open – while facing a long recovery.“This is not something that’s going to just last weeks,” Zeb Smathers, the mayor of Canton, told CNN Thursday. “We’re going to be having to advocate for these areas in western North Carolina for many, many years.”More than 850,000 customers in seven states from Florida to West Virginia still were without power as of Thursday evening, according to PowerOutage.us. Most are in the Carolinas, where regional energy provider Duke Energy says “major portions of the power grid … were simply wiped away.”Helene’s swift floodwaters took out so many power poles and electric lines, infrastructure needs to be rebuilt before power is restored, though the Federal Emergency Management Agency said Thursday it had helped restore power to more than 3.3 million homes. Hundreds of roads remain closed, hampering efforts to send aid to hard-hit communities. And for those who left before Helene, it’s delayed their returns to check on family, friends and the state of their homes. Some areas are so inaccessible supplies are being delivered by mules and by air. Meanwhile, more than 200 people in Buncombe County, North Carolina, remain unaccounted for as of Thursday afternoon, Sheriff Quentin Miller said at a news briefing. “We know these are hard times, but please know we’re coming to get you,” Miller said. “We will not rest until you are secure and you are being cared for.”When asked for clarity on the number of people unaccounted for, county spokesperson Lillian Govus said the number fluctuates rapidly, as search and rescue efforts are ongoing. The county’s register of deeds is knocking on doors to check on community members, Govus said during a news conference.“Once those crews have exhausted every resource they have at their fingertips, that’s when the search and rescue efforts will conclude, and we will have a number to share at that time,” Govus said. Relief efforts across the damaged areas are picking up as linemen restore power and the military and relief groups bring in people and supplies. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden deployed 1,000 troops from Fort Liberty in eastern North Carolina to the ravaged western part of the state. Biden visited North and South Carolina on Wednesday while Vice President Kamala Harris visited Augusta, Georgia, a city still under a curfew and a boil water advisory.Robert Gaudet, the founder and CEO of the Cajun Navy, a volunteer disaster rescue and response team, has witnessed the devastation of dozens of natural disasters firsthand.But he told CNN the destruction from Hurricane Helene has him lost for words.“We’ve done a lot of disasters. We went to Maui for the wildfires. We’ve never seen anything like this,” he said.“When there’s feet of mud filling up properties and homes and an entire town is washed into a lake … and it’s not just what you see, but it’s where you can drive for hours and hours and see the destruction and damage, you lose a sense of how life has been and how it is for you really quickly.”Gaudet, who founded the Cajun Navy in the aftermath of Katrina, said the death toll continues to be personally difficult for him.“We do a lot of (disasters) and to hear that over 100 individuals have lost their lives – and those are the ones who have been recovered so far, it’s really horrible,” he said.FEMA is still working with state and local officials to confirm how many people are missing in the aftermath of Helene, Administrator Deanne Criswell told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Wednesday.More than 3,500 FEMA personnel have been deployed – including 1,200 in North Carolina alone – to aid in search and rescue and recovery efforts, Criswell said.“As we look at the infrastructure damages to water, to cell lines, to power, the ability to get those turned back on is going to be complicated just by the way (the mountainous region) is configured,” she said. The agency is sending additional personnel, Criswell said, and repairing some of the facilities will take weeks, not days.“We know that this is going to be a sustained operation,” she said. “How do we continue to bring resources in that can sustain the need for the next several weeks, or as long as it takes to get some of these critical services, like water, restored to these communities?”
Biden administration sends $100 million to repair roads, bridges in NC after Helene - The Biden administration announced Saturday that it would be sending $100 million to help the North Carolina Department of Transportation pay for immediate emergency repairs from Hurricane Helene damage, according to a press release.“Working in close coordination with North Carolina, we are providing this initial round of funding so there’s no delay getting roads repaired and reopened, and re-establishing critical routes,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in the release.“The Biden-Harris administration will be with North Carolina every step of the way, and today’s emergency funding to help get transportation networks back up and running safely will be followed by additional federal resources,” he added. Buttigieg said in a post on the social platform X that the transportation department approved the request.“Further support will follow as the administration works with states and communities at every step along the path to recovery,” he said in the post.This comes as Vice President Harris visits with North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in Charlotte on Saturday. Biden assessed the damage in North Carolina on Wednesday by helicopter, and applauded politicians on both sides of the aisle in the Carolinas for their responses, the Associated Pressreported.Hurricane Helene has killed at least 133 people in six Southeastern states, NewsNation reportedearlier this week.In western North Carolina, residents have been stranded by washed-out roads and by a lack of power and cellular service. During a briefing earlier this week, White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall suggested as many as 600 people were unaccounted for as of Monday afternoon, saying some might be dead, according to NewsNation.On Friday, Buttigieg called out tech billionaire Elon Musk for making false claims related to the federal government and posting a screenshot of a conversation with a person who said air space for deliveries had been “shut down” and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was “throttling flights.”“No one is shutting down the airspace and FAA doesn’t block legitimate rescue and recovery flights. If you’re encountering a problem give me a call,” Buttigieg stated.
Hurricane “John” claims at least 29 lives in Mexico - Hurricane “John” has claimed at least 29 lives since its landfall as a Category 3 Hurricane in the Mexican state of Guerrero on September 24, 2024. The system brought significant rainfall to the region with parts of Guerrero receiving around 950 mm (37 inches) of rain due to the storm.
- Hurricane “John” has caused at least 29 deaths in Mexico since landfall, with 23 reported in the state of Guerrero alone.
- Parts of Guerrero saw around 950 mm (37 inches) of total rainfall, while at least 80 landslides were reported in the state of Oaxaca.
- Around 25 000 personnel were deployed to deal with the aftermath, and around 5 000 citizens were rescued, of which around 3 800 were put in 80 shelters.
At least 29 people have died in Mexico due to floods and landslides caused by Hurricane “John.” The remnants of the hurricane battered Mexico’s coastline for a week, prompting evacuations in southwestern areas on Saturday, September 28.The storm, which rapidly intensified into a Category 3 hurricane, made landfall on September 24 at Marquelia in Guerrero at approximately 03:20 UTC. John tore through the region with winds reaching 193 km/h (120 mph) and a central pressure of 959 hPa, weakening to a tropical storm within 12 hours. Severe flooding and landslides followed four days of continuous rain, with parts of Guerrero receiving 950 mm (37 inches) of rain. This amount is nearly triple what Category 5 Hurricane “Otis” brought to the region in October 2023. Otis claimed lives of 52 people and left 32 missing.The state of Guerrero suffered the highest death toll, with at least 23 fatalities reported. Five deaths occurred in Oaxaca, and a young boy drowned in Michoacán after being swept away by a river.John made landfall two days before Hurricane “Helene” which devasted the U.S. after making landfall near Florida’s Big Bend.
3 tropical cyclones roam Atlantic; another Gulf of Mexico threat may emerge - It’s been less than four days since Helene made landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane, and the scope of the devastation is just coming into view. At least 100 people are dead and 2 million electric customers were still without power as of Monday afternoon. And there are signs the Atlantic isn’t done cranking out storms. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new disturbance in the Caribbean that could eventually become a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The risk of something materializing has dropped slightly, from 50 percent to 40 percent, and weather models remain divided on what might transpire.There’s also a growing group of other systems to track in the Atlantic, although none poses any immediate threat to land.
- Isaac became a Category 2 hurricane over the weekend but is now swirling into chilly waters north of the Azores islands as a weakening nontropical storm.
- Joyce, which became a named storm last week, was recently downgraded to a tropical depression by the Hurricane Center.
- Kirk, which was named this weekend, will probably become a major hurricane, but it’s also predicted to stay away from land.
- Trailing Kirk, there’s a strong tropical wave that has an 80 percent chance to develop over the next week, according to the Hurricane Center.
The prospects of another storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico are unclear. The Central American Gyre — a broad region of low pressure over Central America — will probably generate several pockets of spin in the days ahead that could become the seedling of a named storm. The question is where.Initially it looked like a pocket of spin would consolidate midweek over the western or northwestern Caribbean. But some models are backing off from that idea.Still, some weather models suggest at least a remote possibility of a storm. If one forms in the western or northwest Caribbean, southerly flow would nudge it northward into the Gulf of Mexico. That would happen at the end of this week or into early next.The gyre may also instead tighten west of the Continental Divide in Central America and give rise to a Pacific storm instead.For now, residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast should keep tabs on the evolution of the Hurricane Center’s map showing the seven-day outlookfor tropical weather in the Atlantic.
Swells generated by Category 4 Hurricane “Kirk” expected to reach the United States by Sunday - Category 4 Hurricane “Kirk” is expected to strengthen further in the coming day, generating swells that are expected to reach the east coast of the United States by Sunday, October 6, 2024. Satellite image of Hurricane "Kirk" at 17:50 UTC on October 3, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers Hurricane “Kirk” is currently strengthening over the central Atlantic Ocean, growing in size and producing ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. As of 21:00 UTC on October 3, Kirk’s center was located about 1 745 km (1 085 miles) ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands and 2 665 km (1 655 miles) SW of the Azores. The hurricane’s maximum sustained winds are now reaching 215 km/h (130 mph) and the central pressure is estimated at 948 hPa. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Kirk is moving northwest at a speed of 16 km/h (10 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday, October 4. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 297 km (185 miles) from the center.
Tropical Storm “Leslie” forecast to become a hurricane in a day - Tropical Storm “Leslie” — the 12th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season — is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. As of 15:00 UTC on Thursday, October 3, 2024, the storm was getting stronger and was located about 870 km (540 miles) southwest of the southernmost part of Cabo Verde Islands. satellite image of tropical storm leslie at 1750 utc on october 3 2024 Satellite image of Tropical Storm "Leslie" at 17:50 UTC on October 3, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, Zoom Earth, The Watchers Tropical Storm “Leslie” was positioned approximately 870 km (540 miles) southwest of the southernmost point of the Cabo Verde Islands as of 15:00 UTC on Thursday. Leslie’s maximum sustained winds reached 72 km/h (45 mph) and the system is currently moving west at 8 km/h (5 mph), with a central pressure of 1 002 hPa. Leslie is expected to maintain its westward track through Thursday night, with a slight increase in speed as it shifts west-northwest from Friday through Saturday, October 4 – 5. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 72 km (45 miles) from the storm’s center. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. No warnings or advisories have been issued at this time.
Tropical Depression 14 forms in Gulf as Florida braces for impact - Florida could soon face another severe storm as a tropical depression is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico, the National Weather Service warned Saturday.“It is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week,” NWS wrote in a post on social platform X.“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday,” the service wrote in a separate post, sharing a photo of the expected storm path.NWS also urged residents on the west coast of Florida to “ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” pay attention to advice given by local authorities and to keep checking the website for updates.The storm has a 70 percent chance of further development within the next two days, and a 90 percent chance within the next five days, according to reports from Forbes. The National Hurricane Center is also tracking the tropical depression as it forms.The storm, which would be named “Milton” if it strengthens into a hurricane, is just one of several being tracked by the center. Hurricanes Leslie and Kirk, which both originated off the African coast, could also hit the east coast over the weekend or into next week.
Mumbai sees its wettest September day in 3 years after 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain hit the city in 6 hours, India - A strong trough of westerlies brought intense rainfall to Mumbai on Wednesday, September 25, 2024, flooding the city and leading to four fatalities. Between 16:00 and 22:00 LT, over 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain was recorded, with parts of the region receiving up to 276 mm (10.9 inches) making Wednesday the wettest September day since 2020.
- Over 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain fell in Mumbai in just six hours on Wednesday, September 25, marking the wettest September day since 2020, with some areas receiving up to 276 mm (10.9 inches).
- By September 27, Mumbai had recorded a total of 582 mm (22.9 inches) of rain for the month, far exceeding the September average of 384 mm (15.1 inches), with continued moderate to heavy rains forecasted until the weekend.
- The heavy rains caused at least four fatalities, including a woman who drowned and two laborers struck by lightning.
A strong trough of westerlies brought heavy rains to Mumbai on Wednesday, September 25 with over 250 mm (9.8 inches) of rain falling in the region in under six hours, making it the wettest September day since 2020. Parts of the region received even more rainfall. Ghatkopar recorded 259 mm (10.2 inches), Powai 274 mm (10.8 inches), and Mankhurd 276 mm (10.9 inches) of rainfall between 16:00 and 22:00 local time (LT). Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Several Red, Orange, and Yellow alerts were issued for the affected regions while schools and colleges across the region declared a holiday. The downpour resulted in at least four fatalities on Wednesday. A woman drowned in an open drain, while two laborers were struck by lightning in Kalyan. Another woman lost her life after being swept away near a waterfall in Khopoli, around 80 km (50 miles) from Mumbai. The city had already been receiving heavy rains since Monday, September 23. By Wednesday morning, the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Santacruz station had already recorded 74 mm (2.9 inches) of rain, while the Colaba station recorded 41 mm (1.6 inches). According to IMD, only 16 mm (0.6 inches) of rain was recorded in the city until 17:30 LT. The rainfall intensified afterward, leading to severe floods and waterlogging across the region. Parts of the city’s western suburbs also received heavy rainfall: Jogeshwari recorded 191 mm (7.5 inches), Marol received 176 mm (6.9 inches), and Kandivali 144 mm (5.7 inches) of rainfall between 16:00 and 22:00 LT on Wednesday. Several roads were waterlogged, causing severe traffic disruptions. Andheri Subway had to be shut down after the accumulation of almost 760 mm (2.5 feet) of water. At least 14 flights were diverted, and 36 were canceled at the Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport. The waterlogging also caused severe disruptions to bus and train routes, affecting thousands of commuters. Visuals shared on social media show streets filled with water submerging almost entire cars. The moderate to heavy rains continued throughout Friday, September 27. As of Friday morning, Mumbai had recorded over 3 000 mm (118.1 inches) of rainfall since the monsoon began in June. The Santacruz station has recorded around 3 016 mm (118.7 inches) of total rainfall, while the Colaba Coastal Observatory has recorded almost 2 602 mm (102.4 inches) for the season. Almost 394 mm (15.5 inches) of rain fell over the region between September 23 and 27, bringing the total precipitation for September to 582 mm (22.9 inches). This is well above the monthly average of 384 mm (15.1 inches).
Extreme rainfall leaves over 260 dead or missing in Nepal - Floods caused by extreme rainfall since Thursday, September 26, 2024, have claimed more than 130 lives across Nepal. On Saturday, September 28, the country saw the heaviest rainfall in 54 years after 323 mm (12.7 inches) of rainfall was recorded in just 24 hours. Around 136 people remain missing while over 3 000 people have been rescued so far.
- Severe flooding in Nepal caused by heavy rainfall since Thursday has resulted in more than 130 deaths, with 112 reported over the weekend of September 28 and 29.
- Record-breaking rainfall occurred on Saturday, with 323 mm (12.7 inches) of rain in 24 hours, breaching several rivers, including the Bagmati River in Kathmandu.
- Rescue operations have saved over 3 200 people, but around 136 remain missing, with the death toll and disaster impact expected to rise as flooding and landslides continue.
Heavy rainfall since Thursday, September 26 has caused severe flooding and landslides across Nepal. Approximately 133 people have been reported dead so far, with 112 deaths reported between Saturday and Sunday, September 29, alone.On Saturday, Nepal recorded its highest rainfall in 54 years after receiving 323 mm (12.7 inches) of rain in 24 hours. Several rivers, including the Bagmati River in Kathmandu, have breached their banks due to the incessant rainfall.More than 48 deaths occurred in Kathmandu, 34 in Kavrepalanchok, 20 in Lalitpur, 15 in Dhading, seven in Makwanpur, five in Panchthar, and four in Sindhupalchok.At least 200 instances of floods and landslides have been reported so far, and the toll is expected to increase.According to officials, more than 3 200 people have been rescued so far.Approximately 100 people have been reported injured and around 136 people are missing, according to latest reports.
Floods claim at least 217 lives in Nepal, leave over 140 injured and 28 missing - The Nepal’s flood crisis has claimed 217 lives, injured 143, and left 28 people missing, as emergency teams continue search and rescue operations across the hardest-hit areas. Rescue operative helping out citizens who have been stranded in the flooded streets of Nepal. Rescue operatives helping citizens stranded in the submerged streets of Nepal. Image credit: Firstpost (Stillshot) At least 217 people have lost their lives in Nepal due to ongoing floods since Thursday, September 26. Around 143 people have been reported injured, and 28 remain missing as of Tuesday, October 1. Kathmandu Valley has reported the highest death toll at 50. Over 20 000 security personnel have been deployed across the country for search, rescue, and relief efforts. Reports suggest that over 4 500 people have been rescued from the affected regions by the Nepal Army and police. Several people were left stranded on the BP highway in Kavreplanchowk due to the flooded Roshi River and are expected to be rescued soon. The army has deployed a team along with aerial support to assist in the rescue operations. Several roads have been blocked, and around 16 bridges have collapsed. A landslide blocked the Bhainse-Bhimpedi road in Makwanpur, and authorities are working to clear debris from blocked roads across the region, with a particular focus on restoring access to the capital, Kathmandu. Two-way traffic resumed on the Prithvi highway on the morning of Monday, September 30, after being blocked due to a landslide at Jayplekhola in Dhading. Floods began affecting Nepal on Thursday, leaving thousands displaced and causing widespread devastation until Sunday, September 29. The inundation began receding in Kathmandu on Sunday, providing some relief to the region. Authorities are providing free medical care and supplies to the people in the affected regions, and the assessment of the total damage and impacts is currently underway.
Flash floods claim at least 15 lives in Jiroft, Iran - Heavy rains affecting parts of southeastern Iran at the start of the week led to severe flash floods after the Halil River overflowed in the city of Jiroft (population 130 000) in which 15 people lost their lives. According to Iran’s ISNA news agency, almost all of those killed were Afghan nationals living in the Islamic Republic. The search and rescue missions have ended. Jiroft is a city located in the normally dry southern province of Kerman. Iran has suffered from repeated droughts and regular flooding in the last 10 years. The dry earth from the droughts has a reduced rate of water absorption worsening the flooding caused by torrential rains. In 2022, heavy rains in Southern Iran led to severe flooding in which at least 80 lives were lost. Damage was estimated to be around 200 million USD.
Krathon reaches super typhoon strength as it nears Taiwan – (2 videos) Typhoon “Krathon” reached super typhoon strength on September 30, 2024, after leaving at least 2 people dead in the Philippines. The system is expected to slightly weaken before its center approaches Taiwan on October 2 and 3. Krathon will be the first landfalling typhoon in southwestern Taiwan since 1988, bringing strong winds and heavy rain, with up to 1 000 m (39 inches) in mountainous regions. Tropical Storm “Krathon” — known in the Philippines as Julian — formed on September 28, 2024, as the 18th named storm of the 2024 West Pacific typhoon season. Krathon strengthened into a typhoon on September 30 and exhibited eye measuring 37 km (23 miles) in diameter as it passed near Sabtang, Batanes, Philippines. The Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 for Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, the eastern and central portions of Mountain Province, the eastern portion of Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur, the northern portion of Aurora, northern and eastern Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, La Union, Quirino, Benguet, and the Polillo Islands shortly after naming the storm. Signal No. 2 was raised for the northeastern portion of Cagayan and the eastern portion of the Babuyan Islands as Krathon intensified into a severe tropical storm, followed by Signal No. 3 for the northeastern portion of the Babuyan Islands. On September 29, various local government units announced the suspension of classes on September 30 because of inclement weather caused by the storm, while PAGASA raised Signal No. 4 in Batanes and in Babuyan and Calayan Islands. Around 1 110 people were evacuated across Cagayan Valley as a Red alert warning was declared in the municipalities of Calayan and Santa Ana in Cagayan. In response to the anticipated rise in water levels from the storm, the Ambuklao, Binga, and Magat Dams opened their gates. Krathon caused flooding in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur, where one person drowned and another was reported missing due to strong sea currents. Another person died in Cagayan after being hit by a fallen electric cable knocked down by strong winds. Two families were displaced due to landslides in Baguio, while 26 families were displaced by floods in Abra. Landslides also blocked roads in La Union, Abra and Apayao, while a light aircraft parked at Basco Airport was damaged by strong winds. On October 1, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that a total of 22 645 people were affected, with 1 793 displaced from their homes, while power outages occurred in 16 cities and municipalities, and 38 houses were damaged. Governor Marilou Cayco announced that around 60% of the 2 463 affected homes are completely damaged, while 40% are partially damaged in Batanes. By 21:00 UTC on September 30, Krathon intensified into a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon after it attained 1-minute sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph). At 09:00 UTC on October 1, the center of Typhoon “Krathon” was located about 510 km (320 miles) SSW of Taipei, Taiwan. It had maximum sustained winds of 230 km/h (145 mph) and was moving NNW at 7 km/h (5 mph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Typhoon “Krathon” makes landfall in Taiwan, dropping over 1 600 mm (66 inches) of rain over mountainous regions – (video) Typhoon “Krathon” made landfall in Kaohsiung’s Xiaogang district of southern Taiwan at 12:40 LT (04:40 UTC) on October 3, 2024, with maximum sustained winds of 126 km/h (78 mph). The slow-moving storm, affecting the island for five days, dumped torrential rains, with mountainous parts receiving up to 1 690 mm (66.5 inches) of rain. At least 2 people have been killed and 129 injured. Typhoon “Krathon” made landfall in Kaohsiung’s Xiaogang District, Taiwan, a major southern port city, at 04:40 UTC on Thursday, October 3, with maximum sustained winds of 126 km/h (78 mph) and gusts up to 162 km/h (101 mph). The system approached the island at a slow speed of about 4 km/h (2.5 mph), dropping a huge amount of rain — as much as 1 690 mm (66.5 inches) over mountainous regions in just five days. As of 15:00 LT (09:00 UTC) on Thursday, Krathon was blamed for the deaths of 2 people. 219 people have been injured and 1 person remains missing, according to the Central Emergency Operation Center. Infrastructure has been severely damaged, with reports of highways being blocked by fallen debris, buildings collapsing, and thousands of people experiencing power shortages. Schools, government offices, and domestic flights have also been halted as part of the island’s emergency measures. Typhoon #Krathon (#JulianPH) made landfall over Kaoshiung, Taiwan at around 12:55 (UTC+8) this 3 October, based on the CWA's Kaoshiung Linyuan radar station. pic.twitter.com/oiqQbv3Ijb Atrocious conditions out here now south of Kaohsiung in eyewall of #typhoon #Krathon in #Taiwan pic.twitter.com/cGq6HWvFR8 Heavy damage on the east coast has been recorded in Pingtung and Taitung counties. The storm has also caused devastation in Hualien and other hilly locations prone to mudslides and landslides. Local media have described Typhoon “Krathon” as unusual because it struck Taiwan’s west coast, an area that typically sees fewer typhoons compared to the mountainous eastern side. Typhoons generally approach from the east, where the terrain often disrupts their strength before they reach the western parts of the island. Nearly 40 000 military personnel were placed on standby to help with rescue and recovery efforts. Evacuations have been conducted in risky areas, particularly hilly and low-lying areas.
Severe floods and landslides claim at least 18 lives in Bosnia and Herzegovina - (3 videos) A devastating rainstorm struck Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday, October 4, 2024, triggering massive floods and landslides that caused widespread destruction, cut off villages, and claimed at least 18 lives in the central and southern regions of the country. Dozens of people are still missing and the death toll is expected to keep rising. Local authorities described the floods as ‘biblical.’ Most of the fatalities were reported in the Jablanica region, which was completely cut off after floods and landslides destroyed roads and railway tracks. Several people are missing, and search and rescue operations are ongoing. The government of the Bosniak-Croat Federation has declared a state of natural disaster in the flood-affected areas and established a crisis committee to manage the situation. Visuals shared online show widespread floods that have submerged homes, streets, and parks across the region. Rescuers were unable to reach several villages due to blocked roads, according to Aldin Basnjic, head of the Civil Defence administration in the Bosniak-Croat Federation. He noted that impending rains would complicate rescue efforts further. The main M-17 route, running alongside the Neretva River, was covered in debris near Jablanica. A 17 km (11 miles) section of railway between Ostrozac and Grabovica to the west was heavily damaged. A 200 m (656 feet) stretch of track was left hanging in the air by a landslide near the river, south of Jablanica. Local authorities in Herzegovina-Neretva Canton warned drivers to avoid dangerous roads in the Jablanica area. Kiseljak, located around 20 km (12.4 miles) west of Sarajevo, bore the brunt of the rainstorm and flooding after a river burst its banks. According to the mayor, the rain began at 21:00 local time (LT) on Thursday, October 3, and continued through the night. By 05:00 LT, floods had inundated several homes, which the mayor described as “biblical.” The flooding also affected Montenegro, where roads were washed away, cutting off the village of Komarnica. Rising water levels were reported in several Croatian rivers. According to the government in Zagreb, there was a risk of flooding in parts of Karlovac near the Kupa River.
Strong tornado hits Moscow Oblast, causing severe destruction and one fatality, Russia - -- A destructive tornado ripped through Berezino, a village in the Klinsky District of Russia’s Moscow Oblast, on September 28, causing significant damage and leaving a woman dead after she was struck by a falling tree. The tornado ripped through homes, tearing off roofs, demolishing outbuildings, and bringing down power transmission towers. Entire woodlands were flattened when trees were blown down, and numerous greenhouses were destroyed. In addition to one fatality, many properties were severely damaged, with some masonry homes partially destroyed, as shown on local video. Tornadoes are rare but not unheard of in Moscow Oblast, where severe weather conditions occasionally lead to such phenomena. Historically, the region has seen notable tornadoes, including the infamous June 29, 1904 Moscow tornado — rated as F4, which caused significant devastation, killing several people, and destroying an estimated 3 000 homes. The disaster occurred during the Russo-Japanese War, making it a low priority or clearing the rubble and counting bodies.
Ice Age plankton suggests extreme El Niños will become twice as common A reconstruction of Pacific Ocean temperatures 21,000 years ago based on the chemistry of tiny shells adds hefty support to projections that climate change will make strong El Niño events far more common, leading to more extreme weather around the world.“We’re projecting a pretty dramatic change,” says Kaustubh Thirumalai at the University of Arizona. The irregular cycle between warmer- and cooler-than-average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Weakest polar vortex for October in 40 years could affect winter weather across North America and Europe - The Watchers The polar vortex forming over the Northern Hemisphere in 2024 is at its weakest point for early October in the last 40 years, with potential consequences for winter weather patterns across North America and Europe. The vortex’s unusual behavior this season could lead to significant disruptions in cold outbreaks in parts of the eastern United States, Canada, and Europe. This weakened vortex increases the likelihood of cold air escaping from the polar regions, potentially causing cold outbreaks in the eastern U.S., Canada, and Europe. High-pressure anomalies over the Pacific and Greenland are disrupting the vortex’s structure, further influencing atmospheric circulation and weather outcomes. Typically, the polar vortex contains cold Arctic air, preventing it from escaping. However, in its current weakened state, the vortex is causing shifts in atmospheric circulation. This weakening may allow cold air to escape from the polar regions, potentially affecting winter weather patterns across North America and Europe. According to a report by Andrej Flis published by Severe Weather Europe, this phenomenon could increase the likelihood of cold outbreaks in the eastern United States, Canada, and parts of Europe. Currently, the polar vortex is smaller than usual, with a slight displacement toward Siberia. Over the Pacific Ocean, a high-pressure anomaly has been developing in the stratosphere, pushing the center of the vortex and limiting its strengthening. Normally, the vortex strengthens and extends fully to the lower levels of the atmosphere during October. However, the high-pressure anomaly surrounding the vortex at the stratospheric level is pressing against it, hindering its development and affecting its structure.
New sungrazing comet A11bP71 could outshine Venus in October - The WatchersThe ATLAS survey in Hawaii detected a new sungrazing comet, part of the Kreutz family on September 27, 2024. Provisionally labeled A11bP71, the comet is expected to achieve a magnitude of -5 to -7 as it approaches the Sun, even brighter than Venus — and possibly become the brightest Kreutz sungrazer comet since C/1965 S1 (Ikeya-Seki).
- Detected by the ATLAS survey in Hawaii on September 27, 2024, the new Kreutz family sungrazing comet, A11bP71, is projected to reach a magnitude of -5 to -7, potentially becoming the brightest such comet since Ikeya-Seki in 1965.
- Dr. Karl Battams from NASA’s Sungrazer Project noted cautious optimism about A11bP71, suggesting it could be a smaller Kreutz fragment that erupted early. Though a comparison to the Great Comet Ikeya-Seki should be approached with caution, a scenario similar to Comet Lovejoy remains plausible.
The ATLAS survey in Hawaii discovered a new sungrazing comet on September 27, 2024, which is part of the Kreutz sungrazing family and is expected to reach its perihelion on October 28, 2024. The comet is yet to be officially named and has been provisionally designated as A11bP71. A sungrazing comet from the Kreutz family refers to a group of comets that pass extremely close to the Sun at their perihelion. The comets from this family formed over 1 000 years ago after a giant comet broke up. The perihelion is the point in an object’s orbit where it is closest to the sun.
Long-duration M7.6 solar flare erupts from Region 3842 - A long-duration solar flare measuring M7.6 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2024. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was not produced during this event but Earth-directed CMEs are possible from this region in the days ahead as it continues evolving and moving into a more geoeffective position. There were no radio signatures associated with this event that would suggest a CME was produced. However, the region has a ‘Beta-Gamma-Delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong to major eruptions. It’s now moving toward the center of the solar disk, so Earth-directed CMEs from it become a possibility. “The region upgraded its Zurich classification as its length has increased, it has also seen growth in the number of interior spots, a maturing of the leader penumbra, and is starting to take on an overall circular structure – regions that exhibit this structure tend to be higher, stronger flare producers,” SWPC forecasters said at 00:30 UTC on October 1. Additionally, a new region — Region 3844 — appeared at roughly 23:00 on September 29 and continued to experience growth. Other regions that exhibited growth were Region 3841 (beta) and Region 3843 (beta). All of the other regions experienced gradual decay. Solar activity is expected to be low with 50% chances for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares (10%) through October 3. With no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast and negative polarity coronal hole 76 — the source of recent enhancement in solar wind parameters, rotating off the western limb, the geomagnetic field is expected to remain at Quiet conditions through October 3.
Major X7.1 solar flare erupts from Region 3842, producing likely Earth-directed CME - (video) A major solar flare measuring X7.1 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 22:20 UTC on October 1, 2024, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME) that most likely has an Earth-directed component. This is the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25.The event started at 21:58 and ended at 22:29 UTC.
- This is the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 — after X8.7 on May 14, 2024. The third place holds X6.3 which erupted on February 22, 2024.
- The source region is within the Earth-strike zone — meaning any CME produced by it will likely have an Earth-directed component.
Associated with this event was a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 246 km/s, indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the flare event.Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 9 minutes and with a peak flux of 810 sfu was registered from 22:09 to 22:18 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.Radio signatures were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.Coronagraph imagery is still not available to confirm whether we have an incoming CME. However, this region is within the Earth-strike zone — meaning any CME produced by it will likely have an Earth-directed component.
Major X9.0 solar flare erupts from Region 3842 — the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, Earth-directed CME produced -(two videos)A major solar flare measuring X9.0 erupted from Active Region 3842 at 12:18 UTC on October 3, 2024. This is now the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, following X8.7 on May 14, 2024. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 573 km/s was associated with this event, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Additionally, a Type IV Radio Emission was detected at 12:17 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over parts of Africa and the South Atlantic at the time of the flare. Due to the location of the source region now in the center of the solar disk, any CME produced by it should be Earth-directed. Updated coronagraph imagery shows halo CME, with a large Earth-directed component. CME impact is expected on October 6.
Strongest solar flare in 7 years could lead to communication blackouts on Earth - The Sun emitted the strongest solar flare in seven years Thursday, and space weather forecasters are watching to see what impacts this event has on Earth, including displays of the Northern Lights and implications for the power grid, radio communications and GPS. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said the X9.0 flare was seen blasting from the Sun on Thursday morning. An X flare is the most intense, and the number represents its strength. While the Sun frequently produces these bursts of energy, flares of this magnitude are uncommon. The X9.0 flare takes the crown from the previous strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25, which was an X8.7 flare on May 14. Thursday's flare is the 15th strongest on record, reports Space Weather Watch. At least two coronal mass ejections associated with the recent flare activity are headed toward Earth and expected to arrive in the next three days. The Sun is approaching its solar maximum in Solar Cycle 25 – 11 years of activity marked by a crescendo of sun spots, which can lead to solar flares and more space weather events. Since May, the Sun has created its top three strongest flares of the cycle, with two of those happening this week. The immediate impacts of the flare include strong degradation or signal loss for high-frequency communication bands over much of the sunlit side of Earth. According to the SWPC, high-frequency radio signals may experience loss of contact or major disruptions for minutes up to a couple of hours. During solar radiation storms of this magnitude, GPS navigation errors are likely, which could impact equipment that relies on GPS, such as tractors, as farmers experienced during May’s extreme solar storms. The SWPC has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch through Sunday after the Sun emitted an X7.1 solar flare, the third-strongest of the solar cycle, and the more recent X9.0 flare. The SWPC rates solar storms on a five-level scale, with five being the most extreme and rarest space weather conditions. According to the SWPC, a pair of coronal mass ejections are forecast to begin arriving this weekend. Beginning Friday through Sunday, a period of G3 "strong" geomagnetic storming conditions is possible. These conditions could produce the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights as far south as Iowa and across the Midwest. Cloud cover should be minimal across much of the northern tier on Saturday night, except for some clouds in the Northeast. These stronger geomagnetic storms are less common than G1 or G2 events. However, Earth experienced near-global auroras in May, even as far south as Florida, when an "extreme" (G5) geomagnetic storm occurred because of two groups of extremely active sunspots.
Vance on carbon emissions and climate change: ‘Let’s just say that’s true’ - Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) expressed skepticism about the scientific consensus behind climate change in response to a question during Tuesday’s debate. “One of the things that I’ve noticed some of our Democratic friends talking a lot about is a concern about carbon emissions — this idea that carbon emissions drive all the climate change,” Vance said. “Let’s just say that’s true, just for the sake of argument, so we’re not arguing about weird science. Let’s just say that’s true,” Vance continued. There is a scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and is primarily being driven by human activity — largely carbon emissions stemming from the burning of fossil fuels. Vance, in his answer, said the Trump administration’s climate policy would be to bring more energy production and manufacturing to the U.S. “because we’re the cleanest economy in the entire world.” The U.S. is currently the second-largest emitter of planet-warming gases, behind only China, and is the largest historic emitter. Moderator Norah O’Donnell fact-checked Vance’s response, saying, “The overwhelming consensus among scientists is that the Earth’s climate is warming at an unprecedented rate.” When asked by a moderator, Vance also did not say whether he agrees with former President Trump’s infamous false assertion that climate change is a “hoax.” In his own remarks, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz criticized former President Trump’s oil industry fundraisers and denial of climate science. “To call it a hoax and to take the oil company executives to Mar-a-Lago, say, ‘Give me money for my campaign, and I’ll let you do whatever you want.’ We can be smarter about that,” Walz said. Walz appeared to be referring to reports that Trump asked the oil industry for $1 billion in campaign cash during a fundraiser earlier this year.
No False Solutions PA Coalition: 2nd Carbon Dioxide Leak Reported At ADM Carbon Capture Plant In Illinois, Delay In Notifying Public Should Give PA Pause On Carbon Capture Storage --The US Environmental Protection Agency issued a notice of violation in August to Archer-Daniels-Midland Company for failing to construct carbon capture facility wells to contain carbon dioxide in two monitoring wells and failing to follow emergency response procedures based on a review of well records between January 1, 2022 and July 1, 2024 and inspections of the wells done in June, 2024.Local officials found out about the leaks on September 13 based on news media reports. Read more here.On September 27, ADM notified EPA they would be temporarily pausing carbon dioxide inspections after discovering a potential brine fluid leak in their second monitoring well. Read more here.The Decatur, Illinois site hosts two of the four Class VI injection wells in the country to be fully permitted and operational. On October 3, News of a second CO2 leak at Archer Daniels Midland’s (ADM) Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) operation in Illinois prompted the No False Solutions PA Coalition to write a letter to legislators urging them to reject plans to open the state to the risky, unproven technology. CCS operations have been halted at ADM’s plant.The leak reported today occurred on one of two monitoring wells. In March, a leak detected on the other monitoring well allowed 8,000 metric tons of CO2 to leak 500 feet above the area where sequestration is authorized. Although the EPA became aware of the leak in July, the violation was not issued until August and the public was not told until mid-September.The No False Solutions PA Coalition co-published a brief, Too Infrequently Asked Questions About Carbon Capture and Storage, with the Better Path Coalition that was sent to legislators when they returned to Harrisburg last month. The story of the first ADM leak was a last-minute addition to the brief that calls on our state government to consider all of the facts on CCS. The brief follows from statements sent to elected officials this summer when Senate Bill 831, now Act 87, was making its way through the legislature. Read more here.The statements focused on how little is known about CCS. The brief discusses what is known to make the point that it does not paint a more favorable picture of CCS.Act 87’s subsurface eminent domain provisions pertaining to pore space have been particularly controversial. The letter notes one important footnote in the timeline of the earlier ADM leak: Decatur’s city council and ADM had been hammering out a pore space agreement for months before it was signed in May - after the leak was detected in March. The city was not informed of the leak until August, several months later.“The fact that ADM’s CCS operations are on hold should give us pause here in Pennsylvania. CCS is a technology whose risks are becoming increasingly apparent, not the least of which is the seeming impossibility of forever storage. Our rush to embrace this faulty technology should likewise be suspended until our concerns are fully addressed,” commented Karen Elias, co-founder of No False Solutions PA. “Before Act 87 was enacted in July, we expressed our many concerns about how little is known about CCS. Of particular concern was the amendment made to the bill that makes it possible to shift long term liability to the state at any time after injection operations cease. “If leaks like those in Illinois were happening in Pennsylvania, would the public find itself dealing with the contamination and paying for the clean up? We have been telling legislators that they are not compelled to act on a bill just because they’ve passed it, especially when so many important questions remain unanswered, ” said Karen Feridun, Co-founder of The Better Path Coalition and No False Solutions PA, lead author of the brief.
Energy giant Origin retreats from flagship green hydrogen project as hopes for fuel fade - ABC News - Energy company Origin has dropped out of the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub project, citing uncertainty in the market for the alternative fuel.It comes as another blow to the federal government's green hydrogen ambitions after billionaire Andrew Forrest's Fortescue also pared back investments in the industry. Analysts are unsurprised by the decision, saying high costs remained a hurdle for the industry. One of Australia's biggest energy companies has pulled out of plans to build the country's biggest green hydrogen plant, saying the fuel is too expensive to produce.In a blow to the federal government's ambitions of developing a green hydrogen industry in Australia, Origin Energy on Thursday said it was walking away from a planned project near Newcastle in New South Wales. The project, known as the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, includes explosives giant Orica and was set to involve the production of 5,500 tonnes a year of hydrogen made using renewable energy. But in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange on Thursday morning, Origin boss Frank Calabria said the company was "exiting" the project because it could not get the maths to add up. Origin's Frank Calabria says the company will focus on wind, solar and battery storage projects. (Supplied: Australian Energy Producers) What's more, Origin told investors it "intends to cease work on all hydrogen development opportunities".The announcement is a further setback for the fledging hydrogen industry and its backers in Canberra after billionaire Andrew Forrest's Fortescue slashed jobs and cut investments in the technology. Green hydrogen might be more efficient than petrol but it doesn't rate against a battery-driven vehicle. "We continue to believe hydrogen could play a role in the future energy mix," Mr Calabria said."However, it has become clear that the hydrogen market is developing more slowly than anticipated, and there remain risks and both input cost and technology advancements to overcome."The combination of these factors mean we are unable to see a current pathway to take a final investment decision on the project."
Hydrogen from Methane Pyrolysis Potential New $$ for Drillers --Marcellus Drilling News - There are so many colors for hydrogen (denoting how it is produced) that we've lost track of the number. Some 95% of all hydrogen today is made by using steam with natural gas to separate hydrogen from carbon, referred to as "gray" hydrogen. If the hydrogen producer captures the carbon dioxide generated during the process, it's called "blue" hydrogen. "Green" hydrogen uses electricity from solar or wind to pass an electrical current through water to split the molecules into hydrogen and oxygen (by far the most expensive way to produce hydrogen). "Pink" hydrogen is produced from water using nuclear power. There are other colors too, like white and brown. However, we're interested in "turquoise" hydrogen today, which is also made from natural gas. Instead of steam, methane is heated to 900 degrees Celsius, which frees the hydrogen atoms and turns the carbon into a solid.
Almost 200K Jeep hybrids recalled over fire risk --Close to 200,000 Jeep plug-in hybrids are being recalled over a fire risk, according to a Monday press release from manufacturer Stellantis.“A routine company review of customer data led to an internal investigation that discovered 13 fires,” Stellantis said in the release. “All vehicles were parked and turned off.”Vehicles targeted by the recall include model-year 2020-2024 Jeep Wrangler 4xe and 2022-2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe SUVs, per the release. Stellantis added that about 5 percent of affected vehicles may have the defect.“Vehicle risk is reduced when the battery charge level is depleted,” the release said. “Accordingly, owners are advised to refrain from recharging. Out of an abundance of caution, the company is also advising owners of these vehicles to park away from structures or other vehicles until the remedy is obtained.”The latest recall from Stellantis follows another one last month covering nearly 1.5 million Ram pickup trucks, in which the company cited a software issue affecting the electronic stability control system. Stellantis said Monday the “remedy is imminent” and that those impacted by the new recall are going to receive notification “when they may schedule service.”
Residents divided as judge approves $600 million settlement over East Palestine, Ohio derailment On Monday, a group of East Palestine, Ohio residents filed an appeal against a $600 million class action settlement over the catastrophic derailment and chemical release that poisoned the town last year. The group wants time to review the settlement and access to test results and other data. On February 3, 2023, a 151-car-long Norfolk Southern train derailed while traveling through East Palestine, Ohio. A total of 38 cars derailed, including 11 that carried toxic chemicals, several of which exploded and caught fire. The accident was completely preventable, caused by the Norfolk Southern push for profits over safety. Railroad officials knew for an hour that a wheel bearing was overheating, which later failed causing the derailment, yet didn’t inform the train crew to stop the train. Three days later, against the advice of the chemical manufacturer, Norfolk Southern made the decision to release and burn off five intact tanker cars filled with vinyl chloride, setting off a fireball seen for over 20 miles and poisoning the town and surrounding communities with highly cancer-causing toxins. Residents have also expressed concerns that the settlement will mean that they lose the right to sue Norfolk Southern if they develop cancer or other health conditions in the future, and that money already paid to residents who were forced to relocate from their homes will be deducted from the amount they receive. The Rev. Joseph Sheely, whose name appears on the appeal, says that he and his wife have started getting death threats. He says that he was part of the group that challenged the settlement, but that he did not want to be part of the appeal. He says that he and his wife have been sick since the derailment and that they don’t want the added damage to their health from the stress of the appeal. Last Wednesday, Federal Judge Benita Pearson approved the class-action settlements, overruling all objections brought by residents of East Palestine to the agreement. At the Wednesday hearing, residents complained that they weren’t being given enough time to review the settlement and that they would lose all their rights to sue Norfolk Southern if they or a member of their family develops cancer in the future. Under the settlement agreement, those living closest to the derailment will receive $70,000 per household for property damages. Payouts will decline to just a few hundred dollars for people living farther away. Household members can also receive up to $25,000 for healthcare expenses, with the exact amount depending on distance and dozens of other factors. Attorneys representing the class action will receive around $180 million, including $162 million from the settlement plus another $18 million in expenses. One of the key complaints of residents is that if they accept the settlement, they give up their right to hold Norfolk Southern responsible for health problems that develop in the future. Both vinyl chloride and dioxin, one of the chemicals released during the burning of the vinyl chloride, are carcinogens, meaning residents could develop cancer years in the future. According to multiple news reports, Jami Wallace, a resident of East Palestine, spoke up when the decision was made, calling it a “sham” and directing much of her anger toward the class-action attorneys: “You guys lied to the whole community, you should be ashamed.” Ms. Wallace was ordered out of the courtroom and Judge Pearson instructed police to escort Ms. Wallace out of the building and put her out “to the pavement.” Outside, Ms. Wallace told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the attorneys “duped people into signing up... They bully people unless you have a million dollars to fight it on your own. This is all the money you’re ever going to get. People felt like they were backed into a corner, like they didn’t have a choice.”
States forge ahead with Inflation Reduction Act energy rebates — so far, South Dakota is the only one to opt out --A handful of states have rolled out rebates to consumers who make their homes more energy-efficient, just months after New York became the first state to do so, in May.Meanwhile, South Dakota officials in August declined the federal funding, which is tied to two new programs created by the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate law enacted in 2022.The IRA earmarked $8.8 billion for consumers via two Home Energy Rebates programs.Consumers can access up to $8,000 of Home Efficiency Rebates, and up to $14,000 of Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates.Together, the two rebate programs aim to defray — or in some cases fully offset — the cost of retrofitting homes and upgrading appliances to be more energy-efficient. Such tweaks can help consumers cut their utility bills while also reducing planet-warming carbon emissions, officials said.The two programs have varying rules that determine which consumers are eligible and how much money they can access. In some cases, rebates will depend on household income and a home's overall energy reduction.Nearly every state has indicated it will launch a rebate program for residents, according to a U.S. Department of Energy spokesperson.State officials had an August deadline to officially decline the federal funds. They have a Jan. 31, 2025 deadline to submit a program application to the DOE.South Dakota is the only state so far to have signaled publicly that it won't administer the rebates."With good faith, we did look into this," Jim Terwilliger, commissioner of the South Dakota Bureau of Finance and Management, said during a July 30 appropriations hearing. "We just don't believe that it's the right thing for South Dakota."States, which administer the federal funds, have some leeway relative to program design. They must apply for funding and can distribute rebates to consumers after their application is approved.New York launched the first phase of its rebates May 30. Five others — Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Wisconsin — have since launched rebate programs, too, according to U.S. Department of Energy data as of Sept. 24."I'm expecting more and more to roll out," said Kara Saul-Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, a consulting firm focused on climate and energy policy. Many more states, as well as Washington, D.C., have submitted applications or had them approved, according to DOE data: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia. Together, these 26 states plus the District of Columbia have applied for $4 billion in total funding so far, the DOE said.The rebates are a new program, and "complex government programs like these take time and coordination to set up," according to a DOE spokesperson.
The Country’s Second-Largest Coal Plant May Get a Three-Year Reprieve From Retirement. Why? Duke Energy is proposing a three-year extension for the Gibson power plant in southwest Indiana, the second-largest coal-fired power plant in the country.Gibson, originally scheduled to close in 2035, would remain open until 2038 and would get a retrofit to be able to run on natural gas or coal, according to a plan the utility released this week.Duke said the proposal, if adopted by state regulators, will give it the resources and flexibility needed to handle a projected increase in electricity demand. At the same time, environmental advocates said the plan reflects an overreliance on fossil fuels and is a retreat from what they already saw as a weak approach to reducing emissions.The dynamics in Indiana are similar to other states as the growth of data centers and regulatory backlogs in building renewable energy are making utilities more cautious about closing fossil fuel power plants.But Indiana is a special case for a few reasons, including its history of coal mining and its heavy use of coal for producing electricity. The state ranks fourth in the country in electricity generation from coal, behind Texas, West Virginia and Kentucky, according to the Energy Information Administration.Just a few years ago, Indiana was notable for taking steps away from coal. One of its utilities, NIPSCO, got national attention for its plan to close all its coal plants by 2028. Three years ago, the utility AEP said it would close the Rockport coal plant, the second-largest in Indiana and among the 10 largest in the country, by 2028.The new Duke plan, which covers its Indiana power plants through 2044, is likely to add to concerns that Indiana utilities are backsliding on the progress they seemed to be making.“These utility commitments are not really commitments,” said Ben Inskeep, program director for Citizens Action Coalition, a consumer and environmental advocacy group based in Indianapolis. “When the utility says they’re doing X by Y year, you know, if there’s no law forcing them to do so, they can change those plans on a dime.”Indiana law requires electricity utilities to issue long-term plans for power plants every three years. Regulators will review the filing, take testimony from interested parties and then issue comments.Nathan Gagnon, Duke’s managing director for Midwest resource planning, explained the proposal during an hours-long video meeting with interested parties. He spoke about a summary of the plan, with a more detailed filing to come in November.“Coal drops off pretty steeply,” he said about the later years under the proposal. “There’s not much coal in the mix after ‘31 when you get down to it.”He fielded questions from viewers, including members of the public, who had concerns about climate change and also wanted the company to explore developing new nuclear plants. His answers highlighted that it takes years to implement big changes to electricity resources and that the company is looking for scenarios that have low costs while still meeting customers’ needs and following federal emissions rules.
DOE LPO finalizes $1.52B loan guarantee to support restart of Palisades nuclear generating station --The US Department of Energy (DOE), through its Loan Programs Office (LPO), has closed a loan guarantee of up to $1.52 billion under the Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment (EIR) program to Holtec Palisades to help finance the restoration and resumption of service of an 800-MW nuclear generating station in Covert Township, Michigan.This represents a first-of-a-kind effort by DOE to restart an American nuclear power plant—generating carbon pollution-free energy and saving and expanding a union workforce in Michigan while helping strengthen America’s nuclear energy sector and advance core climate and domestic energy goals.The USDA also announced more than $1.3 billion in Empowering Rural America (New ERA) program awards for two rural electric cooperatives—Wolverine Power Cooperative and Hoosier Energy—to reduce the cost of electricity passed on to their members for clean power from Holtec Palisades and other clean energy sources.Nuclear power is America’s largest source of carbon-free of electricity, supporting hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect jobs across the country and will play a critical role in tackling the climate crisis and protecting public health and the environment from its impacts.—US Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. The Palisades Nuclear Plant, which ceased operations in May 2022, will be brought back online and upgraded to produce clean baseload power until at least 2051, subject to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing approvals.The NRC also issued new guidance to ensure the restart is performed safely and to high standards. Once complete, this project will be the first recommissioning of a retired nuclear power plant in US history. The plant restart is expected to avoid 4.47 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year for a total of 111 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions during the projected 25 years of operations—an amount roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of 882,000 homes. Reducing fossil fuel-based electricity generation also reduces other harmful pollution that is often released during the process and can cause or contribute to local health impacts.Once operational, the Palisades Nuclear Plant will provide reliable, clean firm power generation around-the-clock with zero emissions—a vital addition to Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) resource mix as coal plants are retired. Holtec Palisades has already signed long-term Power Purchase Agreements for the full power output with rural electric co-ops Wolverine Power Cooperative and Hoosier Energy which serve rural communities in Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana.This will significantly reduce Hoosier’s climate pollution and put Wolverine on track to reach 100% carbon-free energy before 2030, allowing rural communities across Michigan to lower their carbon footprint from grid-connected energy to zero. This loan announcement marks the first closing of a loan guarantee through the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment (EIR) program under Title 17 Clean Energy Financing Section 1706, first authorized and appropriated by the Inflation Reduction Act. EIR can finance projects that retool, repower, repurpose, or replace energy infrastructure that has ceased operations or enable operating energy infrastructure to avoid, reduce, utilize, or sequester air pollutants or greenhouse gas emissions.
Three Mile Island seeks taxpayer subsidies to reopen for Microsoft AI deal - The Washington Post - The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is pursuing a $1.6 billion federal loan guarantee to help finance its plan to restart the Pennsylvania facility and sell the electricity to Microsoft to power data centers, according to details of the application shared with The Washington Post.The taxpayer-backed loan could give Microsoft and Three Mile Island owner Constellation Energy a major boost in their unprecedented bid to steer all the power from a U.S. nuclear plant to a single company.Microsoft, which declined to comment on the bid for a loan guarantee, is among the large tech companies scouring the nation for zero-emissions power as they seek to build data centers. It is among the leaders in the global competition to dominate the field of artificial intelligence, which consumes enormous amounts of electricity.The plan to restart Three Mile Island — the site of the worst nuclear accident in the United States — has won plaudits from political leaders, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). The reactor that Constellation plans to recommission was shut down in 2019 and sits next to the unit that has been dormant since a partial meltdown in 1979.The restart plan has already generated controversy as energy experts debate the merits of providing separate federal subsidies for the project, in the form of tax credits. Constellation’s pursuit of the $1.6 billion federal loan guarantee, which has not been previously disclosed, is likely to intensify that debate.The loan guarantee request, first submitted by Constellation to the U.S. Energy Department in May, has cleared an initial review. It has reached the stage where the specific terms of a deal would typically start to be negotiated, according to details of the application shared with The Post. A loan guarantee would allow Constellation to shift much of the risk of reopening Three Mile Island to taxpayers. The federal government, in this case, would pledge to cover up to $1.6 billion if there is a default. The guarantees are typically used by developers to lower the cost of project financing, as lenders are willing to offer more favorable terms when there is federal backing.
AI and crypto use lots of energy. Nuclear power and uranium look like the perfect fix. Data centers are expected to consume more and more electricity thanks to growth in artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining — and nuclear energy and uranium appear a good way for investors to gain exposure to this rise in power demand. Clearly, data centers and AI need “consistent, baseload power,” while many information-technology (IT) companies in the sector are also committed to net-zero carbon emissions as part of their environmental, social and governance policies, said Jonathan Hinze, president at UxC, a nuclear-fuel-market information and analysis firm. “This is why nuclear power is such a perfect fit for them.”
Ohio Justices Reject Neighbor's Objection To Gas Pipeline – Law360 -- The Ohio Supreme Court on Thursday affirmed a state siting board's accelerated approval for a NiSource unit's 3. 7-mile natural gas pipeline in the city of Maumee, rejecting a commercial property owner's claims that the project's risks were not adequately considered. . . .
Ohio Supreme Court Affirms Permit for 3.7-Mile Pipe Near Toledo | Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Supreme Court issued a "slip opinion" dismissing a challenge to a tiny 3.7-mile, 30-inch pipeline Columbia Gas wants to build in Maumee, a city in Lucas County, Ohio, a suburb about 10 miles southwest of Toledo. The owners of a commercial office building claimed they would suffer "irreparable financial harm" if the pipeline were built near their office building. The pipeline does not cross any land owned by the company but does cross land adjacent to the building. We searched our considerable archives (over 28,000 posts!) and found no references to this project.
In re Letter of Notification Application of Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. - Supreme Court of Ohio - {¶ 1} In the proceedings below, the Ohio Power Siting Board granted the application of intervening appellee, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Inc. (“Columbia”), to construct the Ford Street Pipeline Project, a 3.7-mile natural-gas-distribution pipeline in the City of Maumee in Lucas County. The board approved the pipeline project under R.C. 4906.03(F)(3), which provides an accelerated-review process for a proposed gas pipeline that is not more than five miles long. {¶ 2} Appellant, Yorktown Management, L.L.C. (“Yorktown”), which owns land and a commercial office building adjacent to property that contains a portion of the approved route of the pipeline, has appealed. Yorktown contends that the board failed to consider and resolve safety and environmental concerns related to the pipeline’s siting in proximity to the western boundary of Yorktown’s property. Specifically, Yorktown questions the placement of the pipeline and the width of the easements necessary to safely construct, maintain, and operate the pipeline. {¶ 3} As discussed below, Yorktown’s arguments lack merit. We therefore affirm the board’s decision.
EOG Resources to ramp up drilling in Ohio's Utica shale play, exec says - EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) plans to ramp up operations in the Utica shale play in Ohio, COO Jeff Leitzell said Tuesday at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference, according to Reuters. Leitzell said EOG (EOG) has doubled its activity in the Utica during the past year, operating on 445K acres with an average entry cost of ~$600/acre."The Utica absolutely has the opportunity to be a foundational play," Leitzell told attendees at the conference, adding that "if we continue to have the success that we expect, you can expect us to go ahead now and put more capital there." During EOG's (EOG) Q1 update, Senior VP for Exploration and Production Keith Trasko said the company's Utica wells "compete with the best plays in America, very comparable to the Permian on a production per foot basis."
Ascent Resources Issues $600M in New IOUs to Replace Old IOUs Marcellus Drilling News - We're not high finance people (nor are we lawyers), but we do the best we can to explain financial (and legal) news that impacts companies and individuals in the Marcellus/Utica. Yesterday, Ascent Resources, a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale, announced it is floating new unsecured notes that mature in 2032 to purchase and payoff already-existing unsecured notes that were due to be paid ("maturing") in 2026. We call them IOUs. Ascent is hoping to raise $600 million by selling the new notes.
Fitch Rates Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC's Proposed Sr. Unsecured Notes 'BB-'/'RR3' -- Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BB-'/'RR3' rating to Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC's (Ascent) proposed senior unsecured notes.Ascent's 'B+'/Outlook Positive Issuer Default Rating reflects Fitch's expectations of positive FCF over the rating horizon, debt reduction, moderate leverage, above-average production scale and strong hedge book. These factors are offset by fairly high revolver utilization and relatively high firm transportation costs, which results in netbacks slightly lower than that of its peers. The proposed senior unsecured notes issue is leverage neutral and extends the maturity of the company's debt.Fitch believes Ascent will maintain access to debt capital markets and generate FCF to reduce refinancing risk, although natural gas prices are volatile and debt capital markets can be challenging at times. The Positive Outlook is driven by Fitch's expectation that the company will use FCF to reduce revolver borrowings and total debt over the next 12-24 months. Ascent's strong and consistent hedging policy protects the company's cashflow. The company has hedged greater than 75% of expected gas production for both the remainder of 2024 and entirety of 2025 at $3.49/thousand cubic foot of gas (mcf) and $3.80/mcf, respectively. Hedging extends as far as 2027 with greater than 50% of expected gas production hedged in 2026 at $3.73/mcf and about 10% of expected 2027 production hedged at $3.91/mcf. Fitch believes that the hedging program protects current capital spending and debt reduction plans given the pricing environment. While many peers have begun to deemphasize hedging, Ascent maintains a robust hedging program, which is a credit positive.
Utica Oil E&P Infinity Natural Resources Latest to File for IPO | Hart Energy - Utica Shale oil producer Infinity Natural Resources has filed to IPO, bringing public equity into its 90,000 net acres, including leasehold it has amassed in the growing Ohio play.The Morgantown, West Virginia-based E&P filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission Oct. 4. Underwriters to date are Citigroup, Raymond Jamesand RBC Capital Markets. An estimate of the number of shares and price range is not yet determined.It expects to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "INR."Speakers at Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference in Dallas Oct. 3 said public markets are increasingly receptive to go-public deals by small- and mid-cap companies.In addition to Ohio’s Utica oil fairway, where Infinity is producing some 7,100 bbl/d, it operates in eastern Appalachia’s gassy Marcellus Shale, bringing total output to 25,000 boe/d, 29% oil and 48% liquids, according to the S-1 filing.Formed in 2017 and backed by Pearl Energy Investments and NGP, Infinity got to work drilling for gas in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus. In 2021, it began accumulating Utica oil leasehold in Ohio.Of Its 90,000 net acres, which are 83% HBP, 60,000 net are in Ohio and 30,000 in Pennsylvania.Factoring for stacked benches—both the Marcellus and Utica and multiple, layered wells in each zone—in some areas, its “total horizon acres” are 119,000 net, it reported.Proved reserves are 141.6 MMboe, 48% proved developed, comprised of 22% oil, 18% NGL, 60% gas.Future-well inventory is 339 gross laterals—73 proved; 266 unproved—for 19 years of drilling at its current pace of 18 wells per year to D&C the 4.4 million feet of lateral, it reported.Zack Arnold, Infinity president and CEO, told Hart Energy this summer that the Utica’s oil fairway in Ohio is an easier drill than Infinity’s Marcellus wells in Pennsylvania. Ohio’s Utica fairway is geologically quiet, meaning it lacks faulting.“We can do very long laterals with very few changes to our directional plan,” he said.Infinity TD’ed a 14,000 footer in mid-June that stayed in the 3.5-ft zone the entire time.“That’s hard to do in some areas of the Marcellus because you have more complexity and you have to chase that formation a little bit more,” Arnold said. “We don't have to do that in Ohio.”Infinity’s optimal lateral is between 14,000 and 20,000 feet, he added.In addition to Arnold, Infinity’s founders previously worked the Appalachian Basin for Chesapeake Energy, now known as Expand Energy, and for Northeast Natural Energy.
28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 23 – 29 | Marcellus Drilling News There were 28 permits issued to drill new shale wells in Marcellus/Utica for the week of Sept. 23 - 29, down slightly from the 32 issued the prior week. The Keystone State (PA) had 15 new permits, with seven of them going to Range Resources, most of them in Washington County. Three permits were issued to Chesapeake Energy in Bradford County, and two permits were issued to Southwestern Energy in Susquehanna County. As of Tuesday, Chesapeake and Southwestern combined in a merger to form Expand Energy (see Chesapeake & Southwestern Complete Merger; Now #1 U.S. Gas Driller). It's going to take a while before the name change flows through to new permits, so we'll keep reporting on the permits by their given names for now. ALLEGHENY COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | BUTLER COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CLEAN ENERGY E&P | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GUERNSEY COUNTY | LAUREL MOUNTAIN ENERGY | MARSHALL COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY
3 More Drillers Dinged by PA DEP for Not Disclosing Frack Chemicals - Marcellus Drilling News - According to Pennsylvania regulation 25 Pa. Code § 78a.122(b)(6)(iv), a drilling company must provide a list of the chemicals intentionally added to the stimulation [fracking] fluid by name and chemical abstract service (CAS) number in a Completion Report. The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) says three drillers, including EQT, Range Resources, and Greylock Energy, failed to file the proper paperwork for one or more wells.
Fracking in Pennsylvania hasn't gone as well as some may think – WHYY - Twenty years after the state's first shale gas well was drilled, jobs comprise less than 1% of the workforce, residents fear health impacts and environmental damage continues. With all the talk of fracking in Pennsylvania during this presidential race, it’s worth looking at what is at stake for workers, leaseholders and residents who live near oil and gas operations.One quick but important reality check — a president cannot ban fracking in Pennsylvania. Only an act of Congress can prohibit fracking on a national level on private and state land, which is where fracking occurs in Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris would ban fracking if she is elected president, which she wouldn’t have the power to do.“I think this whole discussion about whether fracking should be banned or not is really a diversion by the industry and others from what they should be talking about, which is how can we do this safely so it doesn’t have a negative impact on health and the environment,” said David Hess, former Department of Environmental Protection secretary who served under former Gov. Tom Ridge from 2001 to 2003. Job creation is touted as the most significant benefit of the fracking boom, especially in the more rural parts of the state where good-paying jobs can be scarce. One of the first job creation reports painted a rosy picture. Published in 2010 by Penn State University and paid for by the industry, it predicted fracking the Marcellus Shale formation would support 200,000 jobs by 2020. Six years later, another Penn State study with different authors reported about 26,000 direct jobs in the industry, half of which were filled by out-of-state residents. Today, that number is even smaller. In March of 2024, the state reported 16,831 direct jobs in the industry, less than one half of 1% of all jobs. As a comparison, direct construction jobs account for about 260,000 jobs in the state, while manufacturing currently provides 566,800 jobs. So why are we hearing in political ads and from some national journalists that fracking in Pennsylvania accounts for about 120,000 jobs?The number stems from a 2023 report by the industry that takes a very different approach to counting employment and reported 123,000 jobs were related to fracking in Pennsylvania — a year when the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics listed direct oil and gas jobs in the state at about 12,000. The Marcellus Shale Coalition surveyed companies in 2022. Its report states that the 123,000 figure includes direct jobs, as well as those “generated through the supply chain and employee spending across different sectors of the economy.” But the methods used in the industry job study are very different from those used by academics and financial analysts, and as a result, cast a very wide net. The report’s job numbers are about 10 times the number of direct fracking jobs reported in the state for 2022. Jeremy Weber, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh specializing in energy and environmental policy, used the example of how the 2023 industry report counts the increased use of natural gas as a source of electricity generation in the state.“And they attribute all of that natural gas employment associated with power generation to the shale gas industry,” Weber said. “Well, in Pennsylvania we’re producing roughly the same amount of electricity today as we did before there was any shale gas development. So the total number of people employed in the electric power sector probably hasn’t changed hardly at all. We’ve just shifted the chairs, so to speak, and are now drawing more [electricity from] natural gas.”The industry calculation also includes jobs associated with natural gas distribution, which Weber said “makes no sense.”“In Pennsylvania, we’re consuming in our homes and businesses about the same amount of natural gas today as we did 15 years ago before shale took off. And yet, their methodology and study includes all of the jobs associated with providing natural gas to homes and businesses as attributable to shale development.”Almost immediately after the shale gas boom began in about 2008, reports of fracking in Pennsylvania had residents witnessing dramatic well blowouts and reporting damaged well water, unexplained health issues and, in one famous case, the explosion of a drinking water well that had a build up of methane.The lack of regulation of shale gas production led to the adoption of Act 13 in 2012, which also established an impact fee. The law was updated in 2016.Former Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Dave Hess, who writes the Pennsylvania Environmental Daily newsletter, pours over the well inspection reports issued by the DEP.“What I see is the issue of polluted water supplies, of people being impacted by the air pollution around these facilities, people looking out their bedroom windows and 500 feet [away] is a flare shooting 25 feet up in the air, burning off excess natural gas,” said Hess. “All those issues are still there.”Hess raised alarms in a recent post that listed, in the course of one week in September, 62 notices of violations of conventional wells and seven for fracked wells, bringing the total year-to-date violations to 721 for fracked shale gas wells, and a whopping 5,857 violations for the more shallow conventional wells. The state has had conventional wells, which don’t use fracking to tap the reserves, for more than 100 years. While there are a lot more conventional wells, they do not produce nearly as much oil and gas as the deeper fracked wells.The chart below illustrates DEP violations between 2015 and 2022 for both conventional and unconventional wells. While violations for fracked wells have grown, those for the conventional wells have increased more dramatically.
Pennsylvania Gas Leaseholders Get Royalties Suit Certified – Law360 -- Hundreds of Pennsylvania landowners with natural gas leases have been certified by a federal judge as a class in their lawsuit against Range Resources, which they say took more money out of their royalty payments than their contracts permitted. . .
PA Sen. Yaw Bill Plugs Old Conv. Wells Using $$ from Solar Credits -- Marcellus Drilling News - Pennsylvania State Senator Gene Yaw believes he has a solution to help fund plugging many of the state’s ~350,000 orphaned and abandoned conventional oil and gas wells. Yaw recently introduced a bill, Senate Bill (SB) 1330, that directs the PA Department of General Services to sell any alternative energy credits it owns from buying unreliable solar energy and use the funds to plug old wells. The proposal, which could generate upward of $227 million, drives the enviro-left nuts.
DEP Begins Accepting Grant Applications Oct. 9 To Plug Orphan Conventional Oil & Gas Wells Abandoned By Their Owners -- On October 2, the Department of Environmental Protection announced it will begin accepting applications on October 9 for grants to plug orphan conventional oil and gas wells abandoned by their owners. The new program is part of the $76 million in funding Pennsylvania received from the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for plugging wells abandoned by conventional oil and gas well owners.The program offers grants of up to $40,000 to plug orphan wells 3,000 feet deep or less, and up to $70,000 for wells deeper than 3,000 feet. The grants will be available to qualified well pluggers for orphan wells, which are wells that were abandoned by conventional oil and gas well owners before April 18, 1985.[A “Qualified Well Plugger” is a “person who demonstrates access to equipment, materials, resources and services to plug wells in accordance with statutory and regulatory requirements.”[A Qualified Well Plugger, a parent or subsidiary business entity, must also be in compliance with “any statute administered by the Department, a regulation promulgated under a statute administered by the Department or a plan approval, permit or order of the Department,” according to the application presentation.[An “Orphan Well” as defined in Section 3203 of the Pennsylvania Oil and Gas Act is “a well abandoned prior to April 18, 1985 that has not been affected or operated by the present owner or operator and from which the present owner, operator or lessee has received no economic benefit other than as a landowner or recipient of a royalty interest from the well.”]"By prioritizing the capping and plugging of orphaned and abandoned wells, my Administration is making meaningful strides in reducing greenhouse gas emissions while also supporting thousands of good-paying energy jobs across Pennsylvania," said Governor Shapiro. "Pennsylvania has a long legacy as an energy leader – and these wells are proof of that. Now, we are continuing that legacy by plugging and capping them, improving air quality, reducing emissions, protecting public health, and creating jobs. We are rejecting the false choice between protecting jobs and protecting our planet – and my Administration will continue to draw down as much federal funding as possible to do this critical work." “Orphan wells can leak methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere and pollute groundwater. It is not a matter of ‘if’ an orphan well will be a threat to the environment and public health – it’s a matter of ‘when’,” said DEP Acting Secretary Shirley. “This new program will allow private entities to plug lower-risk and lower-cost orphan wells while DEP focuses on priority wells that can be more expensive to plug. Plugging these orphan wells creates good-paying jobs and improves the environment. We are encouraging any qualified well pluggers to apply and help improve the economy and the environment.”
PA DEP Program Gives Fed $$ to Plug “Lower Priority” Orphaned Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News - In August, the Biden-Harris administration promised (but hasn’t yet delivered a dime of) up to $152 million in “Phase 2” federal money, i.e., your taxpayer dollars, to help plug old conventional oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania (see Convenient Timing: Biden-Harris Promise Pa. Another $152 Million). In September, Biden-Harris said a check was in the mail for $76 million for “Phase 1” of the same thing (see Biden-Harris Bribe Pa. with Check for $76 Million to Plug Old Wells). It is grotesquely CORRUPT. It is vote-buying. PA Gov. Josh Shapiro says the check was received, so he’s now handing out some of that $76 million to buy votes among the oil and gas sector. Yesterday, the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) announced a new program that hands out some of the $76 million to “lower priority” orphaned wells.
Hydrogen from Methane Pyrolysis Potential New $$ for Drillers --Marcellus Drilling News - There are so many colors for hydrogen (denoting how it is produced) that we've lost track of the number. Some 95% of all hydrogen today is made by using steam with natural gas to separate hydrogen from carbon, referred to as "gray" hydrogen. If the hydrogen producer captures the carbon dioxide generated during the process, it's called "blue" hydrogen. "Green" hydrogen uses electricity from solar or wind to pass an electrical current through water to split the molecules into hydrogen and oxygen (by far the most expensive way to produce hydrogen). "Pink" hydrogen is produced from water using nuclear power. There are other colors too, like white and brown. However, we're interested in "turquoise" hydrogen today, which is also made from natural gas. Instead of steam, methane is heated to 900 degrees Celsius, which frees the hydrogen atoms and turns the carbon into a solid.
If Democrats Ban Fracking, It Would Instantly Cause a Recession - Marcellus Drilling News - We spotted an article on the Rigzone website with the following headline: “What Would a USA Fracking Ban Mean for the Oil Price?” Our initial thought was, “A frack ban will never happen.” But we read the article and came across this comment by Matt Willer, Managing Director of Capital Markets at Phoenix Group Holdings: “Willer told Rigzone that, in his opinion, the likelihood of a U.S. fracking ban is less than 50 percent.” Whoa, wait just a darned minute! You mean IF The Cackler actually wins, there is a close-to-50% chance of a nationwide frack ban? That’s what Willer appears to be saying. If true, it’s alarming. It’s astonishing. And it’s all the more reason you must motivate everyone you know to vote for DJT.
Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy Complete Merger and Provide Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call Information, Company Rebranded as Expand Energy -- Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company today closed on their previously announced combination. The combined company has been rebranded as Expand Energy Corporation. Expand Energy’s common stock will commence public trading on the NASDAQ under the ticker “EXE” at the open of trading on October 2, 2024, and will continue to trade today under the symbol “CHK”. “As America’s largest natural gas producer and a top producer globally, Expand Energy is built to disrupt the industry’s traditional cost and market delivery model,” said Nick Dell’Osso, Expand Energy’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Behind our advantaged portfolio, peer-leading returns program and resilient financial foundation, we are poised to capture the significant synergies provided by this powerful combination. We will expand opportunity for shareholders and consumers alike by enhancing margins and reaching more markets, reducing the overall cost of energy. The world needs more energy, and our team is committed to sustainably delivering it to consumers.” In connection with its rebranding, Expand Energy launched a new website, which can be found at www.expandenergy.com.The company will release its 2024 third quarter operational and financial results as well as provide certain preliminary information regarding its 2025 capital and operational plan after market close on October 29, 2024. A conference call to discuss the results and preliminary 2025 plan has been scheduled for October 30, 2024 at 9:00 a.m. EDT. Participants can view the live webcast here. Participants who would like to ask a question, can register here, and will receive the dial-in info and a unique PIN to join the call. Links to the conference call will be provided on Expand Energy’s website. A replay will be available on the website following the call.
Chesapeake & Southwestern Complete Merger; Now #1 U.S. Gas Driller - Marcellus Drilling News -- Move over EQT Corporation, there's a new number one natural gas producer in the U.S. Yesterday, Chesapeake Energy announced that its buyout of and merger with Southwestern Energy in a $7.4 billion deal was completed. The newly merged company was renamed Expand Energy Corporation and will begin trading on the NASDAQ stock market today under the ticker "EXE". As of today, Expand produces more natural gas than EQT. The big difference is that Expand's production comes from both the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville, whereas EQT's production is 100% from the M-U.
EQT Laying Off 15% of Workforce Following Equitrans Acquisition - EQT Corporation is now the #2 largest natural gas driller in the U.S. following the merger of Chesapeake Energy with Southwestern Energy to form Expand Energy Corporation (see today's lead story). EQT took the opportunity yesterday, while everyone was focused on the shiny new object (Expand Energy), to file a Form 8-K with the SEC announcing it is laying off 15% of its entire workforce. EQT says the layoffs are a result of too many workers following the merger with its former midstream division, Equitrans, in July (see Reunited: EQT Closes on Deal to Buy Equitrans Midstream for $5.4B). So, how many employees are getting canned? We have a guess.
Canadian Enbridge acquired the American gas company PSNC for $3.1 billion - Canadian energy company Enbridge Inc. has completed the acquisition of the gas company Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. (PSNC) from the American energy company Dominion Energy, Inc. This is reported in the Enbridge press release. Upon closing of the deal, PSNC will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit and will operate a business under the name Enbridge Gas North Carolina in the state of North Carolina. The deal represents a successful strategic acquisition of three American gas companies, which was first announced in September 2023. In November 2023, Dominion Energy entered into an agreement with Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge to sell three gas distribution companies, including East Ohio Gas Company, Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. and Questar Gas Company, as well as Wexpro Company, which serve 3 million households and businesses in Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho. In addition, the deal includes distribution networks, pipelines for gas collection and storage, and underground storage facilities for LNG. The total value of the transactions is $14 billion, including debt obligations in the amount of $4.6 billion. In particular, the value of the transaction for the sale of East Ohio Gas Company amounted to $6.6 billion (debt of $2.3 billion); the value of Public Service Company of North Carolina, Inc. $3.1 billion (debt of $1 billion) and the value of Questar Gas Company and Wexpro Company — $4.3 billion (debt in in the amount of $1.3 billion). The funds raised will be used to reduce the debt obligations of the parent company and operating enterprises. As part of the deal, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada committed to provide Enbridge with borrowed funds in the amount of up to $9.4 billion for financing, and RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley entered into agreements to acquire Enbridge shares in the amount of $2.93 billion, which will also be used to finance the transaction. Dominion Energy plans to hold a meeting with investors in the fourth quarter to discuss the company's changed strategic and financial prospects. The deal aims to create North America's largest natural gas platform in line with Dominion Energy's strategy to increase the company's long-term value to shareholders, customers and other stakeholders. PSNC is an American gas company in the state of North Carolina. The asset portfolio includes more than 20 km of pipelines for the distribution and transportation of natural gas, an LNG storage facility under construction, as well as unused minority interests in the pipeline and an LNG storage facility. Dominion Energy is an American energy company providing electricity in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, as well as providing gas supply services in 15 US states. The headquarters is located in Richmond (Virginia). Enbridge is a Canadian energy company headquartered in Calgary, Canada. The main activity of the company is the construction and maintenance of pipelines for the transportation of oil and natural gas.
Enbridge Finishes Dominion Acquisitions with PSNC Transaction Close – Rigzone Enbridge Inc. has closed its acquisition of Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated (PSNC) from Dominion Energy, Inc. The PSNC gas utility will be doing business in North Carolina as Enbridge Gas North Carolina and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit, the company said in a news release. PSNC is a premier single-state regulated gas utility in North Carolina serving over 600,000 customers in service territories supported by strong economic growth in cities such as Raleigh, Durham, Gastonia, and Asheville, according to the release. The utility’s asset portfolio includes over 13,000 miles (over 20,500 kilometers) of natural gas distribution and transmission pipelines, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage facility under construction that will enhance system reliability, and non-operated minority interests in a natural gas transmission pipeline lateral and a liquefied natural gas storage facility. "We are pleased to finalize the acquisition from Dominion Energy of three growing gas utilities, by welcoming PSNC to Enbridge. The values and operations of our businesses are strongly aligned, and we share a deep commitment to the continued safe delivery of reliable, affordable natural gas to our customers," Michele Harradence, Enbridge Executive Vice President and President for Gas Distribution and Storage, said. "PSNC is a perfect fit within our existing low-risk, utility business model and the embedded growth opportunities underscore the critical need for natural gas infrastructure over the long term. We are excited to work with our new PSNC employees to integrate the assets and complement the growth we are already seeing in Ohio and Utah and look forward to building long-term productive relationships with all of PSNC's stakeholders in North Carolina,” Harradence noted. The PSNC transaction close marks the successful completion of Enbridge’s strategic acquisition announced in September 2023, where it entered into three separate definitive agreements with Dominion Energy Inc. to acquire natural gas distribution companies The East Ohio Gas Company, PSNC, and Questar Gas for an aggregate purchase price of $14 billion (CAD 19 billion), composed of $9.4 billion of cash consideration and $4.6 billion of assumed debt. Enbridge closed the acquisition of (EOG) from Dominion Energy, Inc. in March. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. In June, Enbridge completed the acquisition of Questar Gas Company and its related Wexpro companies from Dominion Energy. Questar joined Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. The Questar Gas utility is doing business in Utah as Enbridge Gas Utah, in Wyoming as Enbridge Gas Wyoming, and in Idaho as Enbridge Gas Idaho, Enbridge said in an earlier news release. With the completion of the Dominion transactions, Enbridge added gas utility operations in Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, representing a significant presence in the U.S. utility sector. According to Dominion, the three utilities serve about three million homes and businesses and collectively comprise approximately 78,000 miles of natural gas distribution, transmission, gathering, and storage pipelines, as well as more than 62 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of working underground and (LNG) storage capacity, and approximately 400 billion cubic feet equivalent of cost-of-service regulated gas reserves as of year-end 2022.
Enbridge Sanctions Pipelines to Support BP's New Deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico Development - Enbridge Inc. announced today that it will build, own, and operate crude oil and natural gas pipelines in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico for the recently sanctioned Kaskida development, operated by BP Exploration & Production Company ("bp"). The crude oil pipeline, named the Canyon Oil Pipeline System ("Canyon Oil"), will be a combination of 24" and 26" pipe with capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. It will originate in the Keathley Canyon area and deliver crude to the existing Green Canyon 19 platform, operated by Shell Pipeline Company LP for ultimate delivery to the Louisiana market.The natural gas pipeline, named the Canyon Gathering System ("Canyon Gas"), will be a 12" pipeline with capacity of 125 million cubic feet per day and will connect subsea to Enbridge's existing Magnolia Gas Gathering Pipeline, which then delivers to Enbridge's downstream FERC-regulated Garden Banks Gas Pipeline. The definitive agreements are underpinned by long-term contracts which are consistent with Enbridge's low-risk business model and provide utility-like returns. The agreements contain options which bp may elect to exercise in order to connect potential future production from its emerging Paleogene portfolio into the newly developed pipelines. Both the Canyon Oil and the Canyon Gas pipelines are being designed to accommodate connections from nearby discoveries.Detailed design and procurement activities will commence in early 2025 with the pipelines expected to be operational by 2029. The cost of the pipelines will be approximately US$700 million.
U.S. LNG Feedgas Dropped Last Week Due to Maintenance & Hurricane - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN previously told you that gas flows (called “feedgas”) heading to the Cove Point LNG export facility along the coast of Maryland had fallen to zero as of Sept. 20 because the facility is undergoing annual maintenance (see Flows Drop to Zero @ Cove Point LNG, Closed for Annual Maintenance). Maintenance will likely last about three weeks at Cove Point. Flows to Venture Global’s not-commercially-ready but still producing LNG like crazy plant in Calcasieu Pass (in Louisiana) were down last week. Plus, a brief electricity outage at Elba Island (in Georgia) due to Hurricane Helene caused a temporary decrease in feedgas there. All of those factors combined to lower LNG feedgas flows last week.
Calcasieu Pass LNG Repairs Progress as Long-Term Customers Seek More Information - Venture Global LNG Inc. is one step closer to solving equipment faults at the Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas facility in Louisiana, which is at the center of legal disputes, but customers are still fighting for more information, according to federal regulatory filings. FERC gave Venture Global permission to introduce gas to a heat recovery steam generator, noted as HRSG 373 in the order published Tuesday. HRSG 373 is one of five units that make up the power island at the 10 million ton/year capacity facility. The units are also the source of frequent performance issues that have resulted in outages and flaring because of welding issues and manufacturing defects, the company told regulators and customers last year.
Reuters Says FERC Sides with Venture Global in Shafting LNG Customers - - Marcellus Drilling News - Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG export facility received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization to place the final three liquefaction blocks (7-9) into service in November 2023 (see Venture Global Gets FERC OK to Commission 3 Calcasieu Pass Trains). The other trains, 1-6, have been online for over two years! However, the entire facility is not officially in commercial service, even though it has shipped over 200 cargoes. Venture Global claims it is still working out the kinks. A newly issued inspection report by FERC personnel appears to support Venture Global’s claims of still working out the kinks, according to Reuters.
TotalEnergies Building Natural Gas-Heavy Eagle Ford Portfolio with Another Lewis Energy Deal - One of the largest LNG exporters in the United States, TotalEnergies SE, is snapping up more natural gas producing assets in South Texas. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Eagle Ford Shale natural gas spot price showing historical market volatility. The agreement with Lewis Energy Group includes a 45% stake in dry gas producing assets in the Eagle Ford Shale. The French integrated major said the assets have the potential to produce 400 MMcf/d by 2028. “This acquisition further strengthens our upstream gas position in the United States and contributes to our integrated LNG position with a low cost upstream gas supply,” TotalEnergies’ Nicolas Terraz, president, Exploration & Production, said. Related Tags
TotalEnergies Forecasting LNG Sales Rising 50% to 2030, but Short Term Said Sensitive to Supply Disruptions - TotalEnergies SE is advancing a strategy to expand production through 2030, anchored by oil and natural gas – notably LNG – as well as electricity generation, according to CEO Patrick Pouyanné. TotalEnergies SE's supply and demand LNG portfolio through 2030. During the annual investor meeting in New York City, Pouyanné and his executive team laid out a broad multi-year plan to increase output and lower emissions, with liquefied natural gas at the top of the agenda. “Natural gas is indeed at the core of TotalEnergies’ transition strategy,” driven mostly by LNG capacity, Pouyanné said. The compound annual growth rate for LNG sales is forecast to increase by 5-6% between 2023 and 2030.
Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - The U.S. Department of Energy has granted an affiliate of Houston-based Big River Energy LLC authorization to export American natural gas to Mexico for liquefaction and re-export to U.S. free trade agreement countries. Map showing Arabian Peninsula and maritime choke points in the Red Sea. Gato Negro Permitium Uno SAPI de CV received authorization to export up to 236 Bcf/year of U.S. gas to Mexico. It would use 33 Bcf/year for fuel and to power liquefaction at a proposed export terminal on Mexico’s west coast. The 4 million tons/year (Mt/y) Gato Negro LNG terminal in Manzanillo was authorized to re-export U.S. gas when it enters service to Dec. 31, 2050.
Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds -Exported gas emits far more greenhouse gas emissions than coal, despite fossil-fuel industry claims it is a cleaner alternative, according to a major new research paper that challenges the controversial yet rapid expansion of gas exports from the US to Europe and Asia.Coal is the dirtiest of fossil fuels when combusted for energy, with oil and gas producers for years promoting cleaner-burning gas as a “bridge” fuel and even a “climate solution” amid a glut of new liquefied natural gas (or LNG) terminals, primarily in the US.But the research, which itself has become enmeshed in a political argument in the US, has concluded that LNG is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over a 20-year period compared with coal.“The idea that coal is worse for the climate is mistaken – LNG has a larger greenhouse gas footprint than any other fuel,” said Robert Howarth, an environmental scientist at Cornell University and author of the new paper.“To think we should be shipping around this gas as a climate solution is just plain wrong. It’s greenwashing from oil and gas companies that has severely underestimated the emissions from this type of energy.”Drilling, moving, cooling and shipping gas from one country to another uses so much energy that the actual final burning of gas in people’s homes and businesses only accounts for about a third of the total emissions from this process, the research finds.The large resulting emissions mean there is “no need for LNG as an interim energy source”, the paper says, adding that “ending the use of LNG should be a global priority”. The peer-reviewed research, published on Thursday in the Energy Science & Engineering journal, challenges the rationale for a huge surge in LNG facilities along the US Gulf coast, in order to send gas in huge tankers to overseas markets. The US is the world’s leading LNG exporter, followed by Australia and Qatar.Previous government and industry estimates have assumed that LNG is considerably lower emitting than coal, offering the promise that it could replace it in countries such as China, as well as aiding European allies menaced by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major gas producer.“US LNG exports can help accelerate environmental progress across the globe, enabling nations to transition to cleaner natural gas to reduce emissions and address the global risks of climate change,” Dustin Meyer, director of market development at the American Petroleum Institute, has said. But scientists have determined that LNG expansion is not compatible with the world avoiding dangerous global heating, with researchers finding in recent years the leakage of methane, a primary component of gas and a potent planet-heating agent, from drilling operations is far higher than official estimates.Howarth’s paper finds that as much as 3.5% of the gas delivered to customers leaks to the atmosphere unburned, much more than previously assumed. Methane is about 80 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, even though it persists for less time in the atmosphere, and scientists have warned that rising global methane emissions risk blowing apart agreed-upon climate goals.
Cornell Tries to Prop Up Junk “Study” on LNG by Park Foundation --Marcellus Drilling News - Two days ago, MDN told you about a Congressional investigation looking into the Department of Energy's use of a prematurely released "study" as an excuse to "pause" (i.e., ban) new LNG export approvals (see Congress Probes Role of Bob Howarth Study in DOE LNG Pause). Cornell professor Robert Howarth, using money from the anti-fossil fuel Park Foundation, wrote a "study" that purports to show that LNG is worse for the environment than burning coal! It's an elaborate exercise in mental gymnastics. The DOE used the study before it was peer-reviewed and published, i.e., before it was properly vetted. Yesterday, the study was rushed into publication by the journal Energy Science & Engineering.
US natgas prices edge up to 15-week high on weeks of low storage builds (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a 15-week high as reduced output so far this year has cut the amount of the fuel going into storage for the winter heating season. Storage injections in July, August and so far in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities earlier this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 19 of the past 20 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 6% above normal for this time of year due to relatively low heating demand during mild winter of 2023-2024. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.923 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 13. For the quarter, the front-month was up about 12% after jumping 48% last quarter. Futures rose despite a small increase in output over the weekend and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That small output increase came as some drillers restarted their Gulf of Mexico production now that Hurricane Helene passed through the area. The decline in demand, meanwhile, was due in part to a reduction in the amount of gas power generators will likely need to burn with over 1.9 million homes and businesses still without power in the U.S. Southeast and Midwest after Helene battered the region late last week. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea had a 40% chance of strengthening into a cyclone as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. The average output for September, however, was higher than seen last week as some Gulf of Mexico production returned to service. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 95.9 bcfd this week to 96.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants eased to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
Natural gas storage sees lower-than-expected increase, surpasses previous figures The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported on the latest numbers in the natural gas storage sector, revealing a less-than-anticipated increase in the storage of natural gas. The actual increase came in at 55 billion cubic feet (B), lower than the forecasted 59B, implying a stronger demand for natural gas. The actual figure of 55B, while lower than the forecasted increase, still surpasses the previous figure of 47B. This indicates a continued growth in natural gas storage, albeit at a slower rate than initially predicted. The EIA's Natural Gas Storage report is a key indicator of the health of the energy sector, measuring the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage over the past week. Despite being a U.S. indicator, it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector. The lower than expected increase in natural gas inventories implies a greater demand for natural gas, which is bullish for natural gas prices. Conversely, if the increase in inventories had been more than expected, it would have suggested weaker demand and been bearish for natural gas prices. The latest figures, while lower than expected, still point to a continued growth in natural gas storage, signaling a robust energy sector.
US natgas gains about 3% on higher demand view, output cut (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 3% on Thursday, supported by forecasts for higher demand over the next week than previously anticipated, a drop in output and a federal report showing a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly storage build last week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.4 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27. That was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. "The storage injection was within the bracketed range, slightly under, which should have been supportive, but I think the market had priced in sort of a more dramatic event," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, adding that the report was basically a non-event. Even though storage injections have been lower than usual in 19 of the past 20 weeks, the amount of gas in inventory was still about 6% above normal levels for this time of year due to low heating demand during the mild winter of 2023-2024. Financial firm LSEG estimated 141 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 136 estimated on Wednesday. LSEG estimated average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.3 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week to 95.7 bcfd next week. One factor that has weighed on gas prices in recent days was the reduction in the amount that gas power generators need to burn, with about a million homes and businesses still without power in the U.S. Southeast and Midwest after Hurricane Helene battered the region late last week. "The demand destruction caused by the catastrophic path of Helene will continue to overhang the market for a few weeks," Cunningham said. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices eased on Thursday morning but remain near their highest levels in a month as concerns persist over disruption to gas production in the Middle East as conflict in the region intensifies. NG/EU Global gas demand is forecast to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025, largely supported by Asia, which alone is expected to account for more than half of incremental gas demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.
US natgas snaps five-week winning streak on demand concerns (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday, snapping a five-week winning streak on weaker demand outlook even as the latest federal report showed utilities added a smaller-than-normal amount of gas into storage last week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.6 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $2.854 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Prices hit their highest level since mid-June at $3.019 this week, but the contract posted a weekly decline of about 2%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27 which was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll. That compares with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL "We're probably getting the last blast of summer demand. We're probably heading in to a more shoulder-like season as far as demand and I think that's why we pulled back," "Supplies going into the winter season are coming in lower than previous expectations, that's raising some hopes in the industry that has been hurt by low prices that there could be some light on the horizon," The front-month contract has gained about 60% since late August, mainly due to a drop in the amount of fuel going into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season. Storage injections in July, August and likely in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997. That is because many producers reduced their drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. They have remained relatively low since that time. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Financial firm LSEG estimated 142 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 141 estimated on Thursday. Average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, was seen at 95.6 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week and 95.4 bcfd next week, LSEG forecast. "Natural gas is also getting a boost from the delay of the longshoreman strike. There was a lot of concern that natural gas demand could have plummeted had the strike continued for a period of time on fears that factories would shut down production of petrochemicals and plastics, so the market is getting a bullish relief," Flynn added. U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century, but clearing the cargo backlog will take time. Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely flat on Friday morning, after rising on Thursday afternoon, as lower demand and stable supply were expected.
Geopolitical Risks, Unsettled Weather Patterns Place LNG Market On Edge as Winter Nears - After several mild winters and a drop in global natural gas prices this year, rising geopolitical tensions and weather risks have clouded forecasts for LNG and gas prices in winter 2024/2025. Bar chart showing European LNG imports by country. Most analysts have signaled a rise in both demand and natural gas prices this winter as cold sets in, but some traders have pointed to uncertainty as Europe is expected to see the end of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine. Meanwhile, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has threatened to spill out into broader regional fighting, which could place much-needed liquefied natural gas supplies at risk.
NGSA Forecasts Colder Winter Giving ‘Upward Pressure’ to U.S. Natural Gas Prices -A return to average winter weather conditions this upcoming heating season could provide upward support to U.S. natural gas prices compared with last season’s relatively mild climate, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). Forecast of changes in winter supply/demand. “We’re heading into a cooler winter well prepared with record production and storage,” NGSA Chairman Freeman Shaheen said Thursday during the group's 2024 Winter Outlook. For the upcoming winter (November-March), NGSA forecast 7% more heating degree days (HDD) of demand from colder weather over last winter. The forecast, which included analysis from Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) for the outlook, called for heating demand to be near the 10-year average at 3,433 HDDs.
Natural Gas, Oil Exports Seen Insulated from Eastern, Gulf Coast Strike Impacts - As tens of thousands of union members strike at ports across the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, oil and natural gas exports are largely expected to continue uninterrupted – at least in the short term. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) directed members at container terminals at 36 ports spanning Texas to Maine to begin strike actions after leadership denied the latest contract offer from the the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The current six-year contract between the ILA and the USMX, which represents employers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, expired at midnight Tuesday. While the strike means an immediate work stoppage for the movement of cargo like containers, breakbulk and vehicles, University of Houston’s Margaret Kidd, program director and instructional associate professor for Supply Chain & Logistics, told NGI impacts to commodities markets would likely be avoided if both parties come to a compromise soon.
Oil and gas waste disposal is endangering drinking water sources – NRDC --The oil and gas industry generates massive volumes of dangerous wastewater each day: In 2021, U.S. wells createdalmost 1.1 trillion gallons. That’s approximately 3 billion gallons every day of produced water and fracking flowback. More than 95 percent of this wastewater was injected underground into waste disposal wells. This wastewater, generated by fracking and oil and gas production, can be toxic and highly radioactive. When it’s injected underground it’s regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act’s Underground Injection Control (UIC) program, which is supposed to protect underground sources of drinking water from potential dangers in wastewater, including radioactive material, heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and more.Unfortunately, regulation often falls short of protecting communities and natural resources. Back in 2019, NRDC published a report on some of the failures of the UIC program. We concluded that the program’s oversight is characterized by a pattern of exemptions and exceptions and a lack of transparency. Our report also did a deep dive into one state’s program—West Virginia, with a detailed analysis of state records. We found that the state had failed to effectively administer its UIC program in accordance with the SDWA’s requirements and the state’s own regulations.But it’s not only West Virginia that has been suspected of lax regulation of underground injection of oil and gas wastes. In California, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found in 2014 that the state was not administering its oil and gas UIC program in accordance with approved statute and regulation. Concerns about problems in Texas and Ohio have also surfaced over the years. Now this issue is in the headlines again and is only getting more threatening as the amount of waste increases around the country.In Texas, hundreds of millions of gallons of oil and gas wastewater are injected every day and serious problems continue to be reported around the state. Earlier this year, local organizations asked the U.S. EPA to revoke the state’s authority to run the program in Texas because “the State ofTexas has utterly failed to implement and enforce strong protections to ensure the oil and gas waste from Class II underground injection wells do not contaminate aquifers.” Poorly regulated underground waste disposal wells areleaking this waste. In one case in Crane County, wastewater migrated about 12 miles underground before blowing out in 2022; almost 15 million gallons of wastewater shot out of the ground before the leak was stopped. The U.S. EPA has agreed to do an “extensive and thorough technical and legal review” of Texas’ regulatory practices.In Ohio, community organizations came to the similar conclusion that there were “systemic and longstanding failures” by the state to comply with its legal obligations to protect underground sources of drinking water from the dangers of oil and gas waste. There have been leaks miles away from faulty disposal wells—one leak in Noble County reached a stream and ended up killing hundreds of animals. Citizen groups asked EPA to remove Ohio’s authority view in 2022, but EPA has not yet taken any action. In the meantime, the state has shut down some waste disposal wells that were found to be leaking and endangering underground sources of drinking water, rivers and streams. It’s not enough, but it’s a start.Oklahoma is another state with examples of problematic underground injection disposal wells. In one case, leaking injection wells were discovered in 2019 when wastewater started bubbling out of the ground on a farm in Kingfisher County. The waste flowed across a field all the way to a creek, another farm, and then a pond. Acres of crops were ruined. It’s estimated that more than one million gallons of this potentially toxic and radioactive material leaked out of the ground over a one-and-a-half year period.Special loopholes carved out for the oil and gas industry in our bedrock environmental laws allow its waste to be disposed of in underground injection wells that are not designed to the standards necessary to safely hold hazardous waste-- regardless of how toxic or radioactive this waste might be. Our federal and state laws for oil and gas waste are too weak to adequately protect public health—it’s past time for new laws and regulations to ensure safer methods for the management, storage, transport, and disposal of this waste.
Diamondback Subsidiary Viper Closes $900MM Midland Royalty Deal - Diamondback Energy subsidiary Viper Energy has closed a previously announced acquisition of Midland Basin mineral and royalty interests for roughly $915 million, Viper said on Oct. 1.Viper agreed in September to acquire the mineral and royalty-owning subsidiaries of Tumbleweed Royalty IV LLC. Tumbleweed was founded in 2014 by Cody Campbell and John Sellers, the co-executives behind Permian E&P Double Eagle Energy.Combined with other recent deals with Tumbleweed, Viper has acquired about $1.1 billion from Tumbleweed and its affiliates.Viper paid for the acquisition with $459 million in cash and 10.1 million OpCo units. Based on the $45.13 closing price of Viper units on Sept. 11, the equity portion of the deal that closed Oct. 1 was worth approximately $456 million. Tumbleweed Royalty was also granted an option to acquire the same number of shares of Viper's Class B common stock as the OpCo units Viper was paid.The deal with Tumbleweed IV also includes a potential additional payment of up to $41 million cash in first-quarter 2026, based on average 2025 WTI oil prices.In September, Viper closed two other Permian Basin acquisitions from Tumbleweed-Q Royalty Partners LLC and MC Tumbleweed Royalty LLC for a combined cash consideration of $189 million.Combined, the acquisitions represent approximately 3,727 net royalty acres in the Permian Basin—3,237 in the Midland Basin and 490 in the Delaware Basin. Viper expects Diamondback to complete between 120 and 140 gross locations beyond existing DUCs and permits on the acquired properties through the end of 2026 at an average ~3% net royalty interest.
Nearly 400 gallons of oil spilled in Smith Canal in Stockton — Nearly 400 gallons of oil spilled in the Smith Canal in Stockton on Friday. Officials are now investigating this as an illegal dumping case. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife was notified Friday that a petroleum oil spill had occurred in the state waters of the Smith Canal, according to department officials. The source of the spill appears to be from an oil burner that had a potential maximum capacity of 380 gallons, though authorities have not specified how much oil has gone into the canal. A neighbor, who wants to stay anonymous, and lives directly in front of where the spill happened, told KCRA 3 that he witnesses multiple illegal dumpings along the canal on a weekly basis. "I didn't think anything of it because they drop so much garbage around here. It's kind of pointless trying to stop and yell and trying to pick a fight with every single person," said the neighbor. The United States Coast Guard is taking the lead in the investigation. In a statement, they said, "Crews from the Stockton Fire Department and the Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response responded initially and deployed a sorbent boom to minimize environmental impacts. An additional layer of a hard boom was deployed on both sides of the spill site to prevent product from entering into the San Joaquin River." KCRA noticed a white tarp over an area near the bank of the canal, where investigators confirmed that the oil container was left. They removed it Sunday afternoon. "It's a really sad event that happened for that to end up in the water. Hopefully, it has a good outcome in the end, that is what we're hoping for," said the neighbor. The Coast Guard has also opened the federal Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, established for various issues related to oil spills, including clean-up costs, to pay for the initial response to the Stockton spill and containment and recovery of the oil released into the canal. The San Joaquin County Office of Emergency Services has advised community members living along the banks or near the canal to avoid the area of the spill and stay out of the water. Officials also cautioned pet owners to keep animals out of water and not let them drink from the canal. Fish and Wildlife are asking the public to not catch and consume any fish or shellfish in the area. State and federal agencies are still searching for the person who caused the spill.
Second oil company CEO conspired with OPEC to keep prices high, FTC charges - Federal regulators are alleging a major oil company CEO conspired with foreign governments to keep oil and gas prices high. On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a complaint against John B. Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, accusing him of secretly communicating with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Hess’s company had sought a $53 billion merger with oil giant Chevron — a deal that the FTC ruled could go forward only if Hess himself was not involved with the subsequent company. “We are very pleased that our merger with Chevron has cleared this significant regulatory hurdle,” Hess said in a statement. “This transaction continues to be an outstanding deal for Hess and Chevron shareholders and will create a premier integrated energy company that is ideally positioned for the energy transition.” But while Hess will remain on as an advisor to Chevron concerning the new company’s business operations in Guyana, he will not get a seat on its board. The FTC asserted in its complaint that his direct involvement in the new conglomerate would “heighten the risk of harm” to market competition, and would “meaningfully increase” the risk of the kind of backdoor coordination between rivals that is barred by federal antitrust law. Hess, the FTC charged, urged OPEC officials to push publicly and privately for “inventory management,” or reduced pumping and fracking with the goal of driving up prices. That goal cuts against the principal selling point of the shale boom for American consumers, the FTC charges. The record U.S. oil and gas production allowed by tools like fracking and directional drilling have undercut the “artificially low production levels and associated artificially high prices OPEC oil producers seek to set,” the agency said. With 50 percent of global oil production under its control, OPEC has historically been able to influence or even set global prices, the FTC noted — something that would be illegal if carried out within the U.S. As the U.S. fracking boom crashed global oil prices, “OPEC officials had an incentive to coordinate with these [U.S.] rivals rather than compete,” the agency charged. Hess, in statements included in the filing, has praised OPEC’s price-controlling pumping. He said in a 2021 Hess earnings call that the cartel’s leadership had done a “masterful job [in] giving the market what it needs, but not oversupplying it,” and that “OPEC, I think, has done a great job managing the oil market.”
Québec May Have to Pay Questerre $4.8B for Utica Drilling Ban - Marcellus Drilling News - The province of Québec, Canada, with a huge supply of Utica Shale gas sitting beneath it, passed a new law in 2022 outlawing all oil and natural gas production throughout the province (see Quebec Pulls Trigger & Commits Energy Suicide – Bans All O&G Prod.). It was a breathtaking grab of totalitarian power. It’s also energy suicide. Québec said it would pay a piddly $79.5 million (US) to expropriate the oil and gas drilling rights of companies owning those rights in the province. We’ve seen estimates that those rights are worth more than $5 billion. Questerre Energy, which owns more than 1 million acres of leases and an estimated 6 Tcf of Utica Shale reserves in the province, sued Quebec.
Steelhead LNG Takes Cedar Patent Fight to South Korea - Infrastructure developer Steelhead LNG Corp. has sued to stop construction of the proposed liquefied natural gas export facility in Kitimat, British Columbia (BC), advancing its fight over allegations other companies infringed on its plans for low-carbon exports from Western Canada. Map showing natural gas pipeline routes to Western Canada's Cedar LNG with associated project infrastructure. Vancouver-based Steelhead LNG filed a suit in South Korea against the Cedar LNG joint venture, Pembina Pipeline Corp. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. (SHI) for allegedly infringing on its patents. The company previously filed a similar suit against Rockies LNG Ltd. over construction of the Ksi Lisim LNG project being constructed and designed by Samsung and Black and Veatch. "Steelhead LNG has dedicated significant resources to developing its unique LNG export facility solution,” President Victor Ojeda said. “Our intellectual property is the cornerstone of that effort, and we have a responsibility to safeguard it against unauthorized use.”
Slovak gas buyer SPP says talks continue to extend Ukraine transit -Slovak state-owned gas buyer SPP is continuing negotiations to secure an extension of gas transit through Ukraine after Kyiv's contract with Russian supplier Gazprom expires at the end of the year, and several options are on the table, SPP Chief Executive Vojtech Ferencz said on Thursday. Ukraine has said it does not want to renew the transit deal but some central European countries rely on Russian gas delivered through pipelines that cross the country. SPP has been a leading voice in trying to keep the transit open despite Russia's war with Ukraine, as alternative routes are more costly and it faces potential bottlenecks in other pipelines. "When I put all the risks together, I believe that the transit should be and must be maintained in order to avoid artificial costs in central Europe,” Ferencz said on the sidelines of a gas conference in Slovak mountain resort of Horny Smokovec. “I have the feeling that things will somehow fall into place...in 2019 the transit extension was also signed in December. There are many open options for what can happen.” Ferencz, fresh from a trip to Baku, confirmed that one option was the potential involvement of Azeri firm SOCAR, which could ship gas through Ukrainian territory and avoid the need for Kyiv to deal with Gazprom, but he stressed nothing had been agreed yet. He said the simplest way of involving SOCAR would be if it handed back the gas to Gazprom on the Ukraine-Slovak border - allowing Gazprom to continue servicing its European customers. SOCAR did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of business hours. Discussions with Kyiv about maintaining the status quo were also continuing, Ferencz added, despite Ukraine's rejection of that scenario. The transit could also be done under ownership of other intermediaries, including a possible consortium involving SPP, or Gazprom may try to find an alternative delivery route, Ferencz said. SPP, providing for two thirds of Slovak consumption, takes 3 Bm3y of gas from Gazprom under a contract lasting until 2034. A total of 14 Bm3 of Russian gas is expected to have flowed through Ukraine this year and any renewed arrangement should maintain these volumes, Ferencz said, as shipping only to Slovakia would raise transit costs too much. He added that he would also travel to Brussels to discuss European Commission backing for a new arrangement. Whatever happens, Ferencz said SPP's 14 TWh of storage was nearly full and the company had an option for another 3 TWh of gas in storage, along with five alternative supply contracts and two more under negotiation, safely sufficient to cover its customers in the coming heating season.
QatarEnergy LNG Awards McDermott EPCI Contract for the North Field South Offshore Pipelines and Cables Project -- -- McDermott has been awarded an engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract by QatarEnergy LNG for the North Field South (NFS) Offshore Pipelines and Cables Project. This new contract is in addition to the awards received by McDermott earlier for the NFS Pipelines FEED, the NFS Jackets EPCI, and the NFXP Topsides and Pipelines which included the NFS Topsides.The NFS infrastructure is designed to supply feed gas for two additional LNG trains and is part of the North Field Expansion Project (NFXP), which will help increase the total LNG production in the State of Qatar from the current 77 million tons per annum (MTPA) to 142 MTPA."McDermott is unique in Qatar in that we have been operating and supporting the offshore energy industry since its early developments in the 1990s. Consequently, we have a long history within the energy sector there and have followed its growth from that time until today," said Mike Sutherland, McDermott's Senior Vice President, Offshore Middle East. "We look forward to continuing to work closely with QatarEnergy LNG to contribute to the completion of this strategic offshore development."The scope of the contract comprises EPCI of almost 250 kilometers of offshore and onshore gas pipelines connecting five new offshore wellhead platforms with two new onshore LNG trains in addition to subsea composite power and control cables. The project will be managed from the McDermott Doha office with in-country fabrication support from the QFAB fabrication yard, and will be installed with McDermott's inhouse marine assets.
Japan top buyer of LNG from Russia's Sakhalin 2 -Japan is currently the biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's Sakhalin 2 plant accounting for 57.5% of its exports, Interfax news agency quoted a company senior manager as saying on Thursday. Japan has reduced its imports of Russian energy since the start of Russian's military conflict with Ukraine but has kept stakes in several fossil fuel projects in Russia. China has accounted for 26.3% of Sakhalin 2's LNG supplies followed by South Korea at 16.2%, Interfax quoted the company's chief of marketing unit Leonid Alexandrov as saying. He did not specify a timeframe. Japan reduced its LNG purchases from Russia by 11% last year to 6.1 metric MMt, though Moscow remained Japan's third biggest supplier with a 9% share behind Australia and Malaysia. Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi have 12.5% and 10% stakes, respectively, in Sakhalin 2, which is led by Russia's Gazprom. The plant delivers more than 80% of its LNG under long- and medium-term contracts while the rest is sold on the spot market, Interfax reported. Alexandrov said global LNG demand is likely to slightly exceed supply until 2027, which will underpin LNG prices, it reported.
EIA: China extracting commercially viable natural gas from deeper shale formations - China is a major natural gas importer by pipeline and the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last 10 years, the Chinese government has actively supported the development of unconventional natural gas resources to reduce import dependence and enhance energy security, notes the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).According to a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGCI), the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in 2023 produced natural gas from shale in the Low Cambrian formation in the Sichuan Basin at a depth exceeding 14,760 feet—marking the first time that commercially viable natural gas was produced from this deeper formation. SPGCI reported that the Zi 201 well initially produced 26.1 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), a commercial rate that could signify the entry of the Cambrian formation into a new phase of large-scale shale gas development. Currently, only two of China’s national oil companies—CNPC and the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec)—produce shale gas, mainly from the existing fields in the Silurian Longmaxi formation of the Sichuan Basin. At an average depth of 11,500 feet, the Silurian Longmaxi shale formation is shallower than the Low Cambrian.China’s domestic shale gas production averaged 2.51 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023, up from 0.02 Bcf/d in 2013, according to data compiled by SPGCI. Since 2013, Chinese companies have gained a greater geological understanding of shale formations and deployed more advanced hydraulic and automation techniques, steadily growing shale gas production. However, EIA estimates that shale gas accounted for just 12% of China’s domestic natural gas production of 21.7 Bcf/d in 2023 as geological and cost issues have hampered more rapid development. In 2023, China’s natural gas imports averaged 16.0 Bcf/d and accounted for 42% of China’s total natural gas supply, compared with 15% of its supply in 2010.Following the release of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan in 2021, policy directives continued to support development of unconventional natural gas resources. Production from unconventional formations, such as tight gas, shale gas, and coal-bed methane in China averaged 8.6 Bcf/d in 2023.Currently, China is one of four countries in the world where commercial volumes of shale gas are being produced. The others are the United States, Canada, and Argentina. EIA’s World Shale Resource Assessments report of 2015 estimated 1,115 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas resources from the seven most prospective of China’s natural gas basins. More than half of these resources are in the Sichuan Basin (626 trillion cubic feet). The southwest region of the Sichuan Basin dominates China’s shale leasing and drilling activity because it offers China’s best combination of favorable geology, flat surface conditions for accessibility, existing pipelines, abundant water supplies, and access to major urban natural gas markets. Other parts of the Sichuan Basin are structurally or topographically complex or have elevated hydrogen sulfide (H2S) contamination that makes commercial shale gas development more challenging.
Australian Domestic Natural Gas Surplus Thins, Creating More Global LNG Supply Risk -Australia’s domestic market watchdog has warned that the country’s LNG exporters have contracted more volumes to overseas buyers than previously estimated, shrinking the already fragile surplus of domestic natural gas supply for the coming year. Supply/demand balances of Australia's East Coast natural gas. Since 2017, the Australian government has tasked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) with monitoring the country’s natural gas supply balance and reporting price and production forecasts. The eastern supply balance has become increasingly important to the global market as the Australian government continues to rely on liquefied natural gas exporters diverting surplus feed gas to avoid triggering mandatory bans on LNG exports. In its latest interim update reported in September, ACCC researchers disclosed the gas supply surplus for Australia’s eastern coast is forecast between 12 and 27 petajoules (PJ) for the first three months of 2025. It was a revision down from the 26-35 PJ surplus estimate in June
TTF, JKM Climb as Israel Steps Up Attacks Against Iranian Proxies in Lebanon, Yemen – Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Yemen pushed European and Asian natural gas prices higher on Monday as the market continued to weigh the potential for LNG supply disruptions in the region as tensions ratcheted up. European Union Natural Gas Storage. (graphic) The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe gained for a fourth straight session after adding 5% last week. The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) spot and futures prices remained stable in the mid-$13/MMBtu range and followed TTF higher Monday. “With continued escalations in the MIddle East, which show no signs of abating, markets remain nervous and remain elevated,” said UK consultancy Auxilione in a note on Monday.
NOSDRA, SDN tackle oil spillage in the Niger Delta - The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), in collaboration with the international non-governmental organization Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN), is taking steps to tackle oil spillage and promote environmental sustainability in the Niger Delta. NOSDRA’s Director General, Chukwuemeka Woke, has reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to ensuring a clean and healthy environment through this partnership, which he believes will significantly enhance NOSDRA’s efforts. Woke made this statement during a courtesy visit from the SDN team, led by Adam Heals, in Abuja, emphasizing NOSDRA’s mandate to maintain environmental integrity in the Niger Delta and expressing the agency’s dedication to furthering discussions on the issue. According to the DG, “We have a mandate to ensure a clean environment in our country, the partnership with SDN has brought productivity to the Niger Delta for its twenty years of existence in the region. Our ultimate goal is to see a clean and sustainable environment for Nigeria, and indeed for the world,” The representative of SDN, Adams Heals emphasized the organisation’s role in partnership with NOSDRA, particularly through the development of a satellite-based methane tracker aimed at identifying oil spillage hotspots. Heals explained that methane, a potent greenhouse gas, poses a significant threat to climate stability, with its impact being far more severe than carbon dioxide. However, he noted that addressing methane emissions is a crucial step toward achieving long-term climate goals. This cutting-edge technology, he said will enable regulators, including NOSDRA, to collaborate with oil and gas companies to address emissions and minimize environmental damage. Key innovations like the oil spill monitor and gas flare tracker have been developed through NOSDRA-SDN collaboration. These joint efforts have produced a prototype of a methane tracker for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, a project supported by funding from the Dutch government. Both organisations remain optimistic about their continued cooperation in protecting Nigeria’s environment.
Bulk carrier grounds in super typhoon off Taiwan - Authorities in Taiwan deployed a number of helicopters yesterday to rescue all the crew onboard the Blue Lagoon, a Barbados-flagged, 79,500 dwt bulk carrier, which ran aground in a super typhoon on Orchid Island, off the east coast of Taiwan, with fears growing of a possible oil spill. The 229 m long bulk carrier is loaded with 67,500 tons of ore, 39 tons of marine oil, and 227 tons of fuel oil. The ship took on water, the engine room flooded and it began to list at which point the crew evacuated. The crew consisted of nine Egyptian nationals, seven Ukrainians, and three Russians.Oil was reportedly seen in the water around the 14-year-old ship, which is owned by Nova Gemi from Turkey.
Iranian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Oil Transfer Causes Large Spill in Persian Gulf -- A ship-to-ship transfer of Iranian crude oil between two dark tankers has resulted in a substantial oil spill in the Persian Gulf in the waters adjacent to Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran.The transfer took place between the two Aframax tankersFortune Galaxy (9257010) and Serano II (9165542) on September 29 and 30. A five kilometer-long oil slick is easily visible on satellite imagery.The incident was first reported by industry site TankerTrackers, which categorized it as a large spill totalling around 5,400 barrels. “These spills happen regularly and go unreported,” the company said in a post. With more than 2,000 ship-to-ship transfers by shadow fleet vessels around the world every year spills are a routine occurrence, say industry insiders. In 2023 nearly 400 millions barrels of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan oil was transferred between ships.Officially there have only been three major and 55 smaller oil spills across the global oceans in the last 25 years, though the actual figure is almost certainly much higher.Shadow fleet operations generally rely on aging and often underinsured tankers, as was the case in Fortune Galaxy andSerano II with both vessels older than 25 years. With the recent introduction of both oil and LNG shadow fleets operating in the Arctic, the environmental stakes have escalated further.This summer has seen the transfer of more than 10 million barrels of sanctioned Russian crude oil via the icy Arctic waters of the Northern Sea Route. While some vessels possess light ice-class protection, others do not. And lower ice-classes do not offer substantial protection, especially against layers of multi-year ice. “Yet another huge ice class 1C crude oil tanker on the Northern Sea Route. Even with a low ice-class it still makes me uncomfortable,” one Arctic shipping expert told gCaptain. This year thick sea ice persisted around Wrangel Island requiring continuous work by nuclear icebreakers to keep shipping lanes open.Other vessels had to take substantial detours to avoid running into any sea ice. “Ship had to perform an evasive maneuver just north-east of Wrangel Island to avoid troublesome ice. Unescorted, and with officers inexperienced in the hashtag Arctic, presumably, it seems reckless to allow such ships on the NSR, endangering the crew and with an environmental “Titanic risk,” says Kjell Eikland, founder of shipping data provider Eikland Energy.
OPEC+ Leaves Current Output Cut Policy Unchanged at JMMC - The OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) concluded on Wednesday, with the ministers refraining from making any changes to production policy, maintaining the plan to start raising output in December. "The JMMC emphasized the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation. Furthermore, the Committee will continuously assess market conditions,” OPEC said in a post-meeting statement, according to Charles Kennedy ofOilPrice.com. Once again, ministers cautioned cartel members who continue to produce above quota. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee puts the emphasis (again!) on cheating (compliance, on the cartel's speak). Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia claim they fully met their quotas in September (count my as skeptical). #OOTT pic.twitter.com/ZeqwkVEreZ (@JavierBlas) October 2, 2024 The WSJ reported on Wednesday that Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman allegedly warned OPEC+ ministers that if some members insisted on continually violating their quota agreements, oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel. Iraq and Kazakhstan are the most often cited violators of the output-cut agreement. While both countries have reported that they were in compliance in September, the official numbers will not be available to verify until next week, according to Reuters. This is part of the escalating Saudi threat to raise its price target and regain market share it has given up by bearing the heaviest burden of oil output cuts. The Kingdom has been going above and beyond to restrict supply to the market for more than a year. Apart from its share of the OPEC+ cuts in force since last summer, Saudi Arabia is also voluntarily keeping another 1 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market. It has been strictly sticking to its plan to produce “around 9 million bpd”—it has been consistently in line with its targeted oil output over the past year. However, shortly after the report, OPEC itself took the unprecedented step of refuting the WSJ article, claiming that "the article falsely reported that a conference call took place in which the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister allegedly warned OPEC+ members of a potential price drop to $50 per barrel should they fail to comply with agreed production cuts. It also attributed an alleged quote to the Minister, stating: "Some better shut up and respect their commitments toward OPEC+." These claims are entirely unfounded."OPEC secretariat stresses that no such conference call occurred last week, nor has any call or video conference taken place since the last OPEC+ meeting on September 5. The alleged statements, attributed to unnamed sources, lack any credibility and are completely fabricated.With reference to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, dated 2 October 2024, titled "Saudi Oil Min Said Prices May Fall to $50/B if Others Cheat, Sources Say," the OPEC Secretariat categorically refutes the claims made within the story as wholly inaccurate and misleading. The denial prompted some to speculate if the Biden admin was pretending to OPEC members and leaking fake news to Reuters, WSJ and FT.
The Market Weighed the Prospect of Increased Supply - The oil market on Monday continued to trade sideways, within last Thursday’s trading range. The market weighed the prospect of increased supply against escalating tensions in the Middle East. The crude market remained pressured by the reports that Saudi Arabia is committed to OPEC+ increasing its production in December and the expectations that Libya’s shut in oil production will resume following the news that Libya’s eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new governor of the central bank. However, its losses remain limited by fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail Iranian crude supply. The crude market rallied to a high of $69.32 in overnight trading following the reports over the weekend of Israel conducting strikes that killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and hit Houthi targets in Yemen, three groups that are supported by Iran. However, the market erased its gains and posted a low of $67.57 early in the morning before it once again retraced its losses as the market weighs whether the Middle East conflict will spread in the region. The November WTI contract settled up 1 cent at $68.17, while the November Brent contract settled down 2 cents at $71.77. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 9 points at $2.1318 and the RB market settling up 91 points. The EIA reported that U.S. oil demand increased in July to the highest seasonal level since 2019 while output declined for the second time in three months. Total oil consumption increased 1.2% from June to 20.48 million bpd in July, the highest for that month since 2019. Demand for both gasoline and ultra-low sulfur diesel was at the highest seasonal levels since 2019, whereas jet fuel demand of 1.83 million bpd was the highest for any month since August 2019. Total U.S. oil production fell by 25,000 bpd from June to 13.205 million bpd in July. On Friday, Israel killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut. The Israeli military said on Saturday it had eliminated Nasrallah in the strike on the group’s central command headquarters in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said his government was ready to fully implement a U.N. resolution that had aimed to end Hezbollah’s armed presence south of the Litani River as part of an agreement to stop the war with Israel. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, said Tehran would not let any of Israel’s “criminal acts” go unanswered. He was referring to the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian Guard deputy commander, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who died in the same strikes on Friday. The Palestinian militant group Hamas said an Israeli airstrike killed its leader in Lebanon in the city of Tyre on Monday, and another Palestinian organization said three of its leaders died in a strike in central Beirut, the first such hit inside the capital’s limits. Another group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said three of its leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut’s Kola district. The United States has urged a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Lebanon but has also authorized its military to reinforce in the region. U.S President Joe Biden called for a ceasefire in Lebanon on Monday but a U.S. official said Israeli troop deployments suggested a ground incursion against Hezbollah militants could be imminent.
Oil slumps 17% in Q3 as Middle East conflict offset by slowing demand (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday, but posted a 17% loss for the third quarter as fears that a widening conflict in the Middle East could curtail crude supply were overshadowed by waning global demand concerns. Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expired on Monday, fell 21 cents to settle at $71.77 a barrel. Meanwhile, the more actively traded Brent contract for December delivery gained 27 cents to $71.81. The global benchmark posted a 9% drop in September, its biggest monthly decline since November 2022, and after falling a third consecutive month, it slumped 17% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly loss in a year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell a cent to settle at $68.17. The U.S. benchmark tumbled 7% in September in its biggest monthly decline since October 2023, and slumped 16% in its biggest quarterly drop since the third quarter 2023. On Monday, prices were supported by the possibility that Iran, a key producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, may be directly drawn into a widening Middle East conflict. Since last week, Israel has escalated attacks, conducting strikes which have killed Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and hit Houthi targets in Yemen. The three groups are backed by Iran. The market is weighing whether the Middle East conflict will spread in the region, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics. Oil prices had a muted response to Beijing's announcement last week of fiscal stimulus measures in the world's second-biggest economy and top oil importer. Traders question whether the measures will be enough to boost China's weaker-than-expected demand so far this year. Concerns about rising global crude supplies are also weighing on prices for the month. Oil prices slid last week on a report that Saudi Arabia, which is the de facto leader of OPEC, was preparing to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output. "We are proceeding on the premise that last week's Saudi decision to ramp up production in December will be an overriding bearish consideration to this market for weeks to come," Data on Monday was not encouraging for demand, showing China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth straight month and the services sector slowed sharply in September. The prospect of Libyan oil output recovering also weighed on the market. Libya's eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, a move that could help end the crisis that slashed the country's oil output.
Libya’s Output Expected to Recover After an Agreement The oil market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day after it continued to trade for two consecutive days within last Thursday’s trading range. The market was initially pressured by the prospect of increased supply, with Libya’s output expected to recover after an agreement on a new head of the central bank was reached and the official and his deputy took their oath before Libya’s parliament on Tuesday. The market was also pressured by the expectation that OPEC+ will increase its output by 180,000 bpd starting in December. The crude market traded mostly sideways before it sold off sharply and breached its previous lows as it posted a low of $66.33. However, the market bounced off that level and rallied amid reports of a U.S. official stating that the U.S. had indications that Iran was preparing to imminently launch a missile attack against Israel. The market extended its gains to $3.77 as it posted a high of $71.94 after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. The November WTI contract later erased some of its gains ahead of the close and settled up $1.66 at $69.83, while the December Brent contract settled up $1.86 at $73.56. The product markets ended sharply higher as well with the heating oil market settling up 1.98 cents at $2.1742 and the RB market settling up 3.15 cents at $1.9666. Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s campaign against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Reuters journalists saw missiles intercepted in the airspace of neighboring Jordan. Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards said they launched tens of missiles towards Israel and warned that if Israel retaliated Iran’s response would be “more crushing and destructive.” The missile launches were ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israeli media reports said nearly 200 missiles had been launched into Israel from Iran. Earlier, the military had announced that any ballistic missile strike from Iran was expected to be widespread and told the public to shelter in safe rooms in the event of an attack. Iran had vowed to retaliate following attacks that killed the top leadership of its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. The firing of missiles came after Israel said its troops had launched ground raids into Lebanon, though it described the attacks as limited. In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States was prepared to help Israel defend itself from Iranian missile attacks. A senior White House official, the U.S. was actively supporting preparations to defend Israel against the possible attack. Iran had vowed to strike Israel for the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in southern Beirut and the killing of Hamas’ political leader while in Tehran. Earlier, Israel said intense fighting erupted with Hezbollah in south Lebanon on Tuesday after its paratroops and commandos launched raids there, at the start of a ground incursion and following airstrikes against Hezbollah’s leadership. Russia called on Israel to withdraw troops from Lebanon, warning that the attack would lead to a further escalation of violence in the Middle East.
Oil prices rise 3% after Iran launches missiles at Israel (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 3% on Tuesday after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Brent futures gained $1.86, or 2.6%, to settle at $73.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.66, or 2.4%, to settle at $69.83. Earlier in the day, both crude benchmarks were up by over 5%. Alarms sounded across Israel and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem and the Jordan River valley after Israelis piled into bomb shelters. Clay Seigle, an independent political risk strategist, said in an email that Israel "will not hesitate to widen its military offensive to hit Iran directly. And Iran's oil assets are very likely on the target list." An Israeli attack on Iranian oil production or export facilities could cause a material disruption, potentially more than a million barrels per day, Seigle said. In the Red Sea, meanwhile, another Iran-backed group, the Houthis in Yemen, claimed responsibility for attacking at least one of two vessels damaged off the port of Hodeidah. The Houthis have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since last November in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. "In case of an escalation, Iran's proxies, the Houthi rebels and Iraqi paramilitaries, might launch attacks on Middle East oil producers, namely Saudi Arabia," "There is now a genuine fear that oil supply will be impacted, and nervous and volatile trading is anticipated until the picture becomes clear," Before news that Iran was planning a missile attack, the oil market was trading down near a two-week low as the outlook for increased supplies and tepid global demand growth outweighed fears over an escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on crude exports from the region. A panel of ministers from the OPEC+ producer group will meet on Oct. 2 to review the market, with no policy changes expected. Starting in December, the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies such as Russia is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 bpd each month. In addition, the possibility that Libyan oil output will recover also weighed on the market earlier on Tuesday. Libya's eastern-based parliament agreed on Monday to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, which could help to end a crisis that has reduced the country's oil output. Iran and Libya are both members of OPEC. Iran, which is operating under U.S. sanctions, produced about 4.0 million bpd of fuel in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million bpd last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
WTI Holds Gains Despite Surprise Crude Build (Biggest Since June) --Oil prices continues to rise (amid geopolitical tensions), supported by an API-reported crude draw overnight and OPEC+ headlines denying any apparent rift or plans to increase production aggressively. “Iran sits astride the world’s most strategic energy region, oil- and gas- production facilities and transit choke points,” said Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to president George W Bush. “So, when Iran is involved in a shooting war with its neighbours, you have to price in some geopolitical disruption risk, especially when it comes to Israel,” he added. Will the already low (tank bottoms) Cushing (and total crude) stockpiles get tested further...API
- Crude -1.46mm (unch exp)
- Cushing +700k
- Gasoline +900k (-300k exp)
- Distillates -2.7mm (-1.4mm exp)
DOE
- Crude +3.889mm (unch exp) - biggest build since April
- Cushing +840k
- Gasoline +1.119mm (-300k exp)
- Distillates -1.284mm (-1.4mm exp)
In direct conflict with API's report, the official data shows a large 3.9mm barrel build in crude stocks (and an increase in stocks at the Cushing Hub). Presumably this surprise crude build was driven by anticipation of Hurricane Helene's impacts... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Refinery utilization rates in the Midwest slumped to 85%, the lowest since April. On a seasonal basis, that’s also the lowest seen for this time of the year since 2020. That’s mainly the result of BP Whiting carrying out maintenance. On the Gulf Coast, rates are the lowest since March amid planned work. PBF Chalmette, in New Orleans, has take two gasoline units -- an FCC and an alkylation unit -- offline for work. Gasoline demand plunged to a four-year seasonal low following a fifth straight decline last week.
Oil reduces gains after unexpected surge in US crude stocks -- Oil prices gained ground on Wednesday but reduced the gains after US inventory data, which showed an unexpected buildup last week.The Energy Information Administration reported a buildup of 3.9 million barrels in US crude stocks last week to a total of 416.9 million barrels, while analysts expected a drop of 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.1 million barrels to 221.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels to 121.6 million barrels. Israel said that Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at its territory, with Iran’s Revolutionary Forces saying the attack is a response to Israel’s assassination of Ismael Heniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah.There were no reports of injuries in Israel, and it comes after a similar Iranian attack in April that didn’t leave a lasting damage or impact on the financial markets.On trading, Brent December futures rose 0.45%, or 34 cents to $73.90 a barrel.US crude futures due in November rose 0.4%, or 27 cents to $70.10 a barrel.
Middle East conflict lifts oil prices despite large US crude build | (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday on worries that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could threaten oil supplies from the world's top producing region, but a large build in U.S. crude inventories limited gains. Brent futures rose 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $73.90 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 27 cents, or 0.39%, to settle at $70.10 per barrel. On Tuesday, Iran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel, its biggest ever direct attack on the country. Israel and the United States vowed retribution for the attack, a sign that conflict in the region is intensifying. Israel's retaliation could include targeting Iranian oil production facilities among other strategic sites, U.S. news website Axios reported on Wednesday citing Israeli officials. On Wednesday, Iran said its missile attack on Israel was over, barring further provocation. It added that any Israeli response to its attack would be met with widespread destruction. An attack on Iran's oil infrastructure could provoke Tehran to respond with a strike on Saudi oil facilities, similar to one conducted in 2019 on crude processing facilities there, "Any of these events would irretrievably send oil prices considerably higher," he said. In another escalation of the conflict, the Israeli military on Wednesday sent regular infantry and armored units to join ground operations in southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah. At a United Nations Security Council meeting about the Middle East on Wednesday, Israel and Iran threatened each other with retaliation if attacked. "A major escalation by Iran risks bringing the U.S. into the war," Capital Economics said in a note. "Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output, but an important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies were disrupted." Iran's oil output rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, ANZ analysts said. Offsetting some gains made during the week, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 417 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 27, the Energy Information Administration said. This compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also rose last week, but distillate inventories fell. "As we descend into seasonal refinery maintenance, a chunky drop in refining activity has ushered in a build to crude inventories," said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. A meeting on Wednesday of the top ministers of OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged. The group is set to raise output by 180,000 bpd each month from December. "Any suggestion that production hikes will proceed could offset concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East," ANZ analysts said. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia's oil minister warned oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members do not stick to agreed-upon output cut. OPEC refuted this claim, saying the article was "wholly inaccurate and misleading".
Oil prices edge higher over wider Middle East conflict - Oil prices increased on Thursday due to a wider regional conflict in the Middle East, home to the vast majority of oil reserves, fuelling fears of a disruption to crude oil flows, reported Anadolu Agency. International benchmark Brent crude rose by 1.26 per cent to US$74.83 per barrel at 11.01 am local time (0801 GMT), up from the previous session’s close of US$73.9. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 1.4 per cent to US$71.08 per barrel after closing at US$70.1 in the prior session. Cross-border fighting between Israel and Lebanon is expected to intensify further as the Israeli army announced “limited, localised” ground raids in southern Lebanon. Oil prices had jumped on Tuesday after Iran, a key producer and member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), fired around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. However, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released late Wednesday limited upward price movements, easing supply disruption worries. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by around 3.9 million barrels during the week ending Sept. 27, against the market prediction of a 1.5-million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also rose by about 1.1 million barrels during the same period. “Swelling US inventories added evidence that the market is well supplied and can withstand any disruptions,“
U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran -- U.S. crude oil prices rose about 5% on Thursday, posting a third consecutive session of gains on fears that Israel could strike Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack this week. President Joe Biden was asked by reporters Thursday morning whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities. Biden said: "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway." The president added that "there's nothing going to happen today."CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.Biden's comments were the catalyst that moved prices higher, said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. "Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are probably at their highest levels since the Gulf War," Ghali told CNBC.The U.S. benchmark surged 5.5% earlier in the session to an intraday high of $73.99 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is ahead about 8% this week, on pace for its best weekly gain since March 2023. Here are Thursday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $73.71 per barrel, up $3.61, or 5.15%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained nearly 3%.
- Brent December contract: $77.62 per barrel, up $3.72, or 5.03%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead nearly 1%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0926 per gallon, up 5.37%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen less than 1%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.97 per thousand cubic feet, up 2.91%. Year to date, gas has gained about 18%.
The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy."This spare capacity is for now preventing runaway prices amid one of the deepest and most pervasive crises in the Middle East in the past four decades," Galimberti told clients in a Thursday note.OPEC+ spare capacity would be sufficient to cover a disruption to Iran's exports if Israel strikes the Islamic Republic's oil infrastructure as retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB.The problem, however, is that the world's spare oil capacity is heavily concentrated in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, and could also be at risk if a wider war breaks out, according to Ghali with TD Securities.If Israel hits Iran's oil industry, traders would begin to worry about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Schieldrop said. "That would add a significant risk premium to oil," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe." The strait is one of the most important trade arteries for oil in the world.As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran's oil infrastructure, Schieldrop said.
Oil Prices Spike As Biden Confirms 'Discussions' With Israel About Targeting Iran Facilities - Oil is trading more than 5% higher Thursday on the heels of President Joe Biden‘s statement that the U.S. spoke with Israel about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities."We're in discussions about that,” Biden said during an interaction with reporters. Biden seemingly indicated he wasn’t partial to the idea of striking at Iran’s oil facilities, before cutting himself off: “I think that would be a little… anyway.” See video below. When one reporter asked whether Biden would “allow” Israel to retaliate against Iran, Biden swiftly corrected him: “First of all, we don’t ‘allow’ Israel. We advise Israel.” Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S.Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. The country, which backs the Hezbollah militant group, exports around half its production abroad. China, where oil demand is weak, is its main customer. Since Iran's missile attack on Israel on Monday, the price of barrels has fluctuated. As of Oct. 3, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is $73.83 per barrel. This reflects a 5.32% increase from the previous day’s close of $70.10.The price of Brent crude is approximately $77.76 per barrel. It has fluctuated within a range of $74.33 to $77.58 for the day. The U.S., which is producing more oil under Biden than any other U.S. presidential administration, has been filling its reserves. The Biden administration acquired an additional 6 million barrels of crude just this week.It’s worth noting that ongoing violence in the Middle East puts the Straits of Hormuz at risk. A third of tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas is transported through that passageway.The U.S. and its allies are likely determined to keep the Strait open due to its strategic importance. Any attempt to block the Strait could provoke military intervention. Iran controls much of the northern coastline of the Strait and has previously threatened to block the passage in response to sanctions or conflicts with Western countries. So far, market reaction to the Middle East conflict is relatively mute compared to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.At the time, the oil market reacted with significant volatility and disruption, leading to a sharp rise in global prices.Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and by March 2022, it had briefly spiked to $139 per barrel, near the all-time high.Oil-related exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, were trending up at last check Thursday afternoon. Here’s where they stand:
Concerns the Widening Conflict in the Middle East Could Threaten Global Oil Supply - The oil market continued to trend higher on Thursday as the market remained concerned that a widening conflict in the Middle East could pose a threat to global oil supply. The crude market initially looked ready to post an inside trading day as the market awaits the Israeli response to the Iranian missile strike against Israel on Tuesday. Israel, which has mounted a deadly campaign against Hezbollah in recent weeks, has promised a forceful retaliation. The market posted a low of $70.52 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and rallied higher. The oil market extended its gains to over $3.85 as it posted a high of $73.95 after U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that U.S. officials are considering whether to support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, a move that could push oil prices higher weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The market later erased some of its sharp gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract settled up $3.61 at $73.71 and posted a new high of $73.99 in the post settlement period. The December Brent contract settled up $3.72 at $77.62. The product markets also surged higher, with the heating oil market settling up 11.26 cents at $2.2947 and the RB market settling up 10.67 cents at $2.0926. Gulf Arab states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in the conflict between Israel and Iran in meetings in Doha this week on the back of concerns that a wider escalation in violence could threaten their oil facilities, two sources told Reuters. Sources stated that ministers from Gulf Arab states and Iran attending a meeting of Asian nations centered their conversations around de-escalation. On Wednesday, Axios, citing Israeli officials, reported that Israel could target oil production facilities inside Iran as retaliation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, said Iran would be ready to respond and warned against “silence” in the face of Israel’s “warmongering”.Analysts estimate that OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for a full loss of Iranian supply if Israel knocks out that country’s facilities. However, the producer group would struggle if Iran retaliates by hitting its Gulf neighbors’ oil installations.According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil output fell in September to its lowest this year, as unrest disrupted Libyan supply and Iraq made progress in complying with its cutbacks pledged to the OPEC+ alliance. OPEC produced 26.14 million bpd in September, down 390,000 bpd from August’s revised total, with Libya accounting for the majority of the fall, with a cut of 300,000 bpd. Aside from Libya, which is exempt from OPEC+ agreements to limit production, the biggest decline came from Iraq, which is seeking to increase its compliance with its OPEC target. Iraq is still producing 90,000 bpd above quota. Nigeria pumped 40,000 bpd less oil as exports declined. OPEC pumped about 130,000 bpd more than the implied target for the nine members covered by supply cut agreements, with Iraq still accounting for the bulk of the excess.Libya’s National Oil Corp lifted a force majeure at all Libyan oilfields and terminals as of Thursday October 3rd. Separately, Libya’s eastern-based government said that oilfields and facilities would reopen after a dispute over the leadership of the central bank was resolved, potentially ending a crisis that has cut the country’s oil output.
Biden discourages Israel from striking Iran's oil industry, crude posts best week in more than year - U.S. crude oil on Friday posted its biggest weekly gain in more than a year, as traders fear Israel could strike Iran's crude facilities in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile attack. U.S benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 9.09% this week for the biggest weekly gain since March 2023. Global benchmark Brent jumped 8.43% for the biggest weekly advance since January 2023.U.S. crude oil spiked about 5% on Thursday after President Joe Biden indicated the White House was discussing an Israeli strike on Iran's oil industry. Biden clarified those comments on Friday, discouraging Israel from targeting oil fields."The Israelis have not concluded what they're going to do in terms of a strike — that's under discussion," Biden told reporters at a White House press briefing. "If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields." Here are Friday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $74.38 per barrel, up 67 cents, or 0.91%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained nearly 4%.
- Brent December contract: $78.05 per barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.55%. Year to date, the global benchmark has risen more than 1%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0958 per gallon, up 0.15%. Year to date, gasoline is little changed.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.854 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.91%. Year to date, gas is ahead more than 13%.
Oil prices would spike by $10 to $20 per barrel if an Israeli strike knocks out 1 million barrels per day of Iranian production over a sustained period, said Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs.Just how high prices would go depends on whether OPEC uses its spare oil capacity to plug the gap, Struyven said.Though oil prices have surged this week on geopolitical tensions, they have risen from a low baseline. Just last month, prices hit their lowest level in nearly three years as bearish sentiment swept the market on soft demand in China and plans by OPEC+ to increase production. "The risk to the oil price outlook are definitely significant," Struyven told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Friday. The oil market had largely ignored the escalating war in the Middle East until Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday."Geopolitical risk premium priced into oil markets until basically today was quite moderate," Struyven said. Brent prices at around $77 per barrel are still below Goldman Sachs' view of what constitutes fair value based on inventory levels, he said.The risk premium has been modest because there haven't been sustained supply disruptions over the past two years despite high geopolitical tensions, Struyven said. There is also about 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity on the sidelines that can come online and offset tightness from most supply disruption scenarios, the Goldman Sachs analyst said.
Oil soars 10% in five days, logs biggest weekly gain in one year over Israel-Iran war; Brent sits at $78/bbl - International crude oil prices settled higher in the previous session, logging their biggest weekly gains in over a year on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East due to Israel and Iran. However, gains were limited as US President Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to settle at $78.05 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 67 cents, or 0.9 per cent, to close at $74.38 per barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent crude gained over eight per cent, the most in a week since January 2023. The US WTI benchmark gained 9.1 per cent week-over-week, the most since March 2023. Back home, crude oil futures settled 3.07 per cent higher at ₹6,350 per barrel on the multi-commodity exchange (MCX).
- -Israel has sworn to strike Iran for launching a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday after Israel assassinated the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah a week ago. The events had commodity and oil analysts warning clients of the potential ramifications of a broader war in the Middle East.
- -Crude oil prices jumped nearly two per cent during the last session but pulled back after US President Biden said that if he were in Israel's shoes, he would consider alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. On Thursday, oil surged over five per cent after Biden confirmed the US was in talks with Israel on whether it would support a strike on Iranian energy infrastructure.
- -JPMorgan commodities analysts wrote on Friday that Israel would not prefer an attack on Iranian energy facilities. Still, low global oil inventories suggest that prices will be elevated until the conflict is resolved. Citing data from ship-tracking service Kpler, they said inventories are below last year's levels when Brent traded at $92 and 4.4 billion barrels, the lowest on record.
- -Brokerage StoneX forecasts oil prices could jump between $3 and $5 per barrel if Iranian oil infrastructure is targeted. On Friday, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since his country launched the missile attack. He called for more anti-Israel struggle.
- -According to news agency Reuters, Iran will target Israeli energy and gas installations if Israel attacks it, the semi-official Iranian news agency SNN quoted Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Ali Fadavi as saying.
- -Iran is a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing around 3.2 million barrels per day, or three per cent of global output. The group's spare production capacity should allow other members to boost output if Iranian supplies are disrupted, limiting oil price gains.
- -Supply fears have also eased in Libya. According to Reuters, the country's eastern-based government and Tripoli-based National Oil Corp on Thursday said that all oilfields and export terminals were being reopened after a dispute over the central bank's leadership was resolved.
Given the region's significant influence on global oil supplies and investor sentiment, gold and crude oil tend to experience heightened volatility during periods of geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East.“In geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, crude oil prices react sharply to concerns over supply disruptions. The uncertainty fuels a flight to safety in gold and drives energy markets to speculate on potential oil shortages, making both commodities a barometer of global risk sentiment," said Narinder Wadhwa, Managing Director at SKI Capital Services Ltd -a SEBI registered AIF and RTA & category 1 merchant bank.Analysts said crude oil exhibited significant volatility and extended its gains, with WTI prices reaching five-week highs. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have been driving up oil prices, especially after the US intervention.“Crude oil prices have surged by approximately eight per cent this week, and further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could continue to buoy prices. We anticipate continued volatility in crude oil prices. Support levels are $72.85–$72.20, with resistance expected at $74.20–$75.00.
US Not Withdrawing from Iraq - The US and Iraq on Friday announced a plan that will end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq, but US troops will remain in the country under a “bilateral security partnership.”Iraqi security officials told The Associated Press that US troops would be withdrawing from a base at the Baghdad International Airport and the Ain al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq. US officials refuse to say how many of the 2,500 US troops in Iraq, if any, will be leaving the country.“The US is not withdrawing from Iraq,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Friday. She said the US would be changing its “footprint” in the country but wouldn’t share any details.“This is a step in our relationship and a progress towards a bilateral security agreement, and we’ll have more details to share when we’re ready,” Singh said.Under the plan, the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq will officially end its mission by September 2025, but it will continue to operate in Syria and be supported from Iraqi territory until September 2026. The US has about 900 troops occupying eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing the US to control about one-third of Syria’s territory.The plan is unlikely to placate the many elements in Iraq who want the US to leave, and it could lead to more rocket and drone attacks on US bases. Recent Israeli escalations in Lebanon could also provoke attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria.Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani began calling for an end to the US military presence following an escalation between the US and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that are part of Iraq’s security forces.The US launched heavy airstrikes against the PMF over rocket and drone attacks on US bases, which began in response to US support for Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Hundreds of attacks targeted US bases before a drone hit Tower 22, a secretive US base in Jordan on the Syrian border, in January, killing three US Army Reserve soldiers.The Iraqi government has been under pressure to expel the US since January 2020, when a US drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. After the strike, the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces, but the US refused to leave.The US has been able to stay in Iraq due to the significant economic leverage it has over the country. Since the 2003 invasion, Iraq’s foreign reserves have been held by the US Federal Reserve, giving Washington control over Baghdad’s dollar supply and the ability to devalue the Iraqi dinar.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch drone boat that hits ship in Red Sea as missile strikes another (AP) — Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched an explosive-loaded drone that crashed into one ship Tuesday in the Red Sea and a missile that exploded against another. The attacks are the rebels’ first assaults on commercial shipping in weeks as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to become a regional conflict. They come as Israeli ground forces entered Lebanon after days of Israeli airstrikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials, and earlier explosions of sabotaged electronic devices used by the Shiite militia. The Houthis threatened “escalating military operations” targeting Israel on Monday after they apparently shot down a U.S. military drone flying over Yemen. The first attack took place some 110 kilometers (70 miles) off the port city of Hodeida and targeted the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon, the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center said. A captain on a ship saw four “splashes” near the vessel, the center overseen by the U.S. Navy said. That likely would have been missiles launched at the vessel that missed. The drone boat later damaged the Cordelia Moon, which sustained a puncture to one of its ballast tanks in the attack. Those tanks control a ship’s buoyancy. Houthi strikes in the past have targeted ships at their waterline to disable the vessels. Drone boats have been increasingly used by the Houthis. The ship had been heading north to the Suez Canal with armed private security guards aboard, the private security firm Ambrey said. Another attack with a missile targeted a separate ship also heading north to the Suez Canal with armed security on board, Ambrey said. The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center later identified it as the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage. Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree later claimed the two attacks in a prerecorded message, though he identified a different vessel as the second ship attacked. The discrepancy could not be immediately reconciled. Saree said in a prerecorded video earlier Tuesday that the rebels had launched drones targeting Israel — attacks unreported by Israel as it faces incoming fire from Hezbollah. The Houthis have exaggerated claims in the past. The Red Sea has become a battlefield for shippers since the Houthis began their campaign targeting ships traveling through the waterway, which once saw $1 trillion a year of cargo pass through it. Houthis have targeted more than 80 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started last October. They have seized one vessel and sunk two in the campaign that has also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels. The rebels maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the U.S. or the United Kingdom to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
Israel Bombs Yemen’s Hodeidah Port, Killing At Least Four - The Israeli military conducted airstrikes against Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah on Sunday, killing at least four people and wounding 29.Yemen’s Health Ministry said the death toll is preliminary and could rise. According to Al Mayadeen, the strikes hit port facilities, a power generation plant, and the Hodeidah airport.The Israeli military said it carried out the strikes in response to the Houthis firing missiles toward Israel. On Friday, the Houthis claimed they launched attacks on Israeli cities and several US warships.Dozens of Israeli warplanes were involved in the strikes on Hodeidah, which the Israeli military said targeted port and oil facilities and “sensitive” Houthi military sites. US and Israeli officials told Axios that Israel notified US Central Command ahead of the strikes, meaning Israel coordinated with the US on the attack. Since January, the US has been bombing Yemen as part of a new campaign that has failed to stop Houthi attacks on shipping.Israel bombed Yemen for the first time back in July in response to a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv that killed one civilian. The Israeli Air Force also targeted Hodeidah in July, hitting oil infrastructure and killing six civilians.The US-backed Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
Israeli attacks on Hezbollah roil Middle East: Five pressing questions --Israel has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership with strikes over the past week, while also killing hundreds of civilians and forcing nearly 1 million people from their homes. Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was taken out in an Israeli attack Friday on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut. The United States has said justice was served to Nasrallah, a key Iranian ally in the region. However, Washington is also urging a diplomatic solution to a conflict that is moving ever-closer to an all-out war, especially as Israel threatens a ground invasion. Israel expanded its air strikes across Lebanon over the weekend, hitting central Beirut on Monday for the first time in months. Local officials say more than 1,000 civilians have been killed across Lebanon over the past week, including 100 on Sunday. “There’s no safe place guaranteed in Lebanon,” Jihan Kaisi, the head of a group helping displaced people, told NBC News. Here are five pressing questions about the conflict.
Israel pounds Lebanon, pressuring Hezbollah after killing its leader - Israel struck multiple targets in Lebanon on Sunday, pressing Iran-backed Hezbollah with more attacks after it struck a huge blow by killing the group's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The Israeli military said the air force had "struck dozens of Hezbollah terror targets in Lebanon, including launchers that were aimed toward Israeli territory, structures in which weapons were stored and additional Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure". The navy had intercepted a projectile approaching Israel from the area of the Red Sea and another eight projectiles coming from Lebanon had fallen in open areas, it said in a statement. Nasrallah was killed in a massive Israeli air attack on Friday on the group's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. It was a major blow to Hezbollah and to Iran, removing an influential ally who helped build Hezbollah into the linchpin of Tehran's network of allied groups in the Arab world. Israel announced his killing on Saturday and Hezbollah later confirmed his death. In its announcement, Hezbollah said it would keep fighting Israel and has continued to fire rockets at it, including a salvo on Sunday morning. Nasrallah's death capped a traumatic fortnight for Hezbollah, starting with the detonation of thousands of communications devices used by its members. Israel was widely assumed to have carried out that action but has not confirmed or denied it did. The escalation has increased fears the conflict could spin out of control, potentially drawing in Iran as well as the United States, Israel's closest ally. Hezbollah and Israel have been fighting in parallel with Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas since the Iran-backed Palestinian group's attack on Israel last Oct. 7. Lebanon's health ministry said 33 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon during Saturday, bringing the total toll since hostilities broke out on Oct. 8 last year to more than 1,670, including 104 children. In Beirut, displaced families spent the night on the benches at Zaitunay Bay, a string of restaurants and cafes on Beirut's waterfront where private security usually shoos away any loiterers. On Sunday morning, families with nothing more than a duffle bag of clothes had rolled out mats to sleep on and poured tea for themselves. "You won't be able to destroy us, whatever you do, however much you bomb, however much you displace people - we will stay here. We won't leave. This is our country and we're staying," said Francoise Azori, a Beirut resident jogging through the area. The United Nations' World Food Programme said in a statement on Sunday it had launched an emergency operation to provide food for up to 1 million people affected by the conflict in Lebanon.
Israel Amasses Troops, Tanks on Lebanon Border as Heavy Airstrikes Continue - Israel has amassed more troops and tanks on the Lebanon border in recent days as it continues to pound Beirut and other areas of the country, killing over 100 people on Saturday and Sunday. US officials told ABC News on Saturday that they believe Israel is preparing for a “limited ground incursion” into southern Lebanon even after it has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership.On Sunday, US officials told ABC that small-scale raids to take out Hezbollah positions right across the border may have already started. The officials said they expect any ground incursion to be limited, but Israeli troops may face face stiff resistance.The ABC report said Israel isn’t listening to US calls for de-escalation and diplomacy, which aren’t genuine since the Biden administration continues to provide military aid and shows strong public support for the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Sunday that at least 105 people were killed in another day of Israeli bombing, which targeted Beirut, the eastern Baalbek-Hemel province, and near the southern city of Sidon. According to Al Jazeera, the strike in Sidon hit two residential buildings and killed at least 32 people.On Saturday, the Health Ministry said at least 33 people were killed by Israeli strikes across Lebanon. The Lebanese Government Emergency Committee released figures on Sunday of the total casualties in Lebanon inflicted by Israel over the past year. It said since October 8, 2023, 1,640 people, including 104 children and 194 women, have been killed, and 8,408 have been wounded. At least 816 of the dead have been killed since September 23, when Israel began its dramatic escalation of airstrikes.
Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Kill At Least 95 in One Day - Lebanon’s Health Ministry has reported that Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Monday killed at least 95 people as the relentless bombing campaign continues. “The Israeli enemy’s raids in the past twenty-four hours on towns and villages in southern Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and the capital Beirut resulted in a total death toll of ninety-five people and 172 injuries,” the ministry wrote on X early Tuesday.Since Israel dramatically escalated its bombing campaign last week, Israeli strikes have killed over 1,000 peoplein Lebanon. Many civilians have been killed, and the Health Ministry said nearly a quarter of the dead are women and children.Reuters reported on Monday that an Israeli airstrike on September 25 hit two houses in Maaysrah, a village north of Beirut in the Keserwan mountains. Displaced families gathered in the houses because the village had never been attacked by Israel in previous wars.But on September 25, Israeli bombs struck two houses in Maaysrah, killing 16 people, including 14 women and children. Thirty people were wounded in the strike, about half of them children.Local officials told Reuters that one house was the residence of a Hezbollah fighter who was killed in battle in August, and a former fighter who had lost a leg in battle was there at the time, but no active combatants were present.Residential homes were Israel’s primary target when its escalation began last week. Israeli officials claimed homes were being used to store Hezbollah weapons but offered no actual evidence for the claim. As a result of the strategy, Lebanese Health Minister Dr. Firass Abiad said the “overwhelming majority, if not all,” of the 558 people killed by Israeli airstrikes on September 23 were civilians.
Israel Again Accused of Illegally Using White Phosphorus in Lebanon - "If Hezbollah rained white phosphorus over Tel Aviv there would be wall-to-wall coverage and every major leader would be saying it's the worst war crime," said one critic. Israeli forces were accused Tuesday of the war crime of firing white phosphorus artillery munitions over populated areas of southern Lebanon as Israel escalates an assault on its northern neighbor that has killed or wounded thousands of people.Video footage published on social media and reported by Middle East Eye shows distinctive explosions that appear consistent with the use of white phosphorus rounds over civilian areas of southern Lebanon, including the village of Kfar Kila.While white phosphorus munitions are not completely prohibited under international law, their use in populated areas is forbidden. White phosphorus round are primarily used to create smokescreens. However, when used as an incendiary weapon, white phosphorus – which ignites on contact with air and burns at nearly 1,500°F (815°C) – can maim and kill by burning flesh straight through to the bone, often causing a slow, agonizing death. Water does not extinguish it.There have been multiple confirmed reports of Israeli forces firing white phosphorus munitions in Lebanon since the political and paramilitary group Hezbollah began attacking Israel with rockets, drones, and other weapons in solidarity with Gaza after Israel’s assault on the Palestinian coastal enclave in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.Israel is currently on trial for genocide at the International Court of Justice over its military assault of Gaza, which has left more than 147,000 Palestinians dead, maimed, or missing.Israeli forces have also used white phosphorus in previous wars, including during the 2006 invasion of Lebanonand over a United Nations school during the 2008-09 Operation Cast Lead invasion of Gaza. Responding to a 2013 petition to Israel’s High Court of Justice filed by human rights groups including Human Rights Watch (HRW), the Israel Defense Forces said it would no longer use white phosphorus in populated areas, with “very narrow exceptions” that it would not disclose.U.S. forces used white phosphorus following the invasion of Iraq and elsewhere across the region during the post-9/11 so-called “War on Terrorism.”
Erdoğan warns of war between Israel and Turkey - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned of war between Israel and Turkey in his speech at the opening of parliament on Tuesday, saying, “The Israeli leadership, acting with the delirium of the promised land and with a purely religious fanaticism, will set its sights on our homeland after Palestine and Lebanon.” Erdoğan said that the Zionist “Greater Israel” project includes Turkey and added, “The Netanyahu government harbors a delusional ambition, including Anatolia, and pursues a utopia, and it reveals these intentions on various occasions. Since 7 October, every development increases the dimension of this threat a little more.” Pointing to the proximity of the borders between Turkey and Israel, Erdoğan hinted that war was imminent between the two critical allies of the United States in the Middle East: “Look, from the Syrian border in Hatay’s Yayladagi district, the Lebanese border is 170 kilometres away by road, and Turkey is only 2.5 hours away from Lebanon by car... In other words, occupation, terror and aggression are right next to us.” Erdoğan made a similar statement last May, saying, “Do not expect that Israel will stop in Gaza. If not stopped, this ferocious, terrorist state will eventually have designs on Anatolia with the delusion of the promised land.” Erdoğan’s latest statements come shortly after the Israeli regime launched a ground offensive in Lebanon having killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Backed by the United States and NATO, the Israeli government is trying to escalate the genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza into a regional war against Iran. After Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation Tuesday night, US and Israeli officials publicly authorised a large-scale attack on Iran. Together with Erdoğan’s announcement last July that Turkey could intervene militarily against Israel, these developments underline the danger that Israel’s US-backed war of aggression is rapidly escalating into a conflict that can engulf the entire region.The Turkish ruling class also fears that a US-backed Israeli war against neighbouring Iran could damage its interests. Ankara and Tehran share the concern that an independent Kurdish state backed by the US and Israel could be established in the region. Erdoğan expressed these concerns in his speech as follows: “We see very clearly how Israel wants to establish small satellite structure in the north of Iraq and Syria, using the separatist organisation [PKK/YPG] as a pawn.”Erdoğan and the Turkish political elite before him have been complicit in the US imperialist aggression in the Middle East for more than 30 years, contributing to the dynamics of disintegration in Iraq and Syria and the danger of the outbreak of a regional war. Erdoğan, who supported the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, has been siding with the US and Israel since 2011 in the war for regime change in Syria, which aims to overthrow the Iranian and Hezbollah-backed President Bashar al-Assad.Similarly, Erdoğan’s statement in his speech that “remaining silent, unresponsive and even neutral” towards Israel is, “to put it bluntly, complicity in the crime,” is an example of utter hypocrisy. NATO member Turkey has been complicit in Israel’s genocide in Gaza and, despite all its rhetorical criticism, has contributed to the escalation of the war. Although Erdoğan has cut trade with Israel and toughened his rhetoric, US-NATO bases in Turkey continue to support Israel. Turkey continues to intercede for Azerbaijan’s critical oil shipments to the country. There are even serious suspicions that Turkey is continuing to trade with Israel via Palestine after the official end of trade with Tel Aviv.
Iran Fires Missile Barrage at Israel - Iran launched over 100 missiles at Israel on Tuesday in an attack that came in response to recent Israeli escalations. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement that the attack was a response to the Israeli killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander who was killed alongside the Hezbollah chief.“In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and (IRGC commander) Nilforoshan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said in a statement.A statement from Iran’s mission to the UN suggests Tehran is done with its attack after launching two missile barrages, although it warned of a “crushing response” if Israel retaliates.“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran—has been duly carried out,” the mission wrote on X.“Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. Regional states and the Zionists’ supporters are advised to part ways with the regime,” the mission added.The Israeli military said there would be “consequences” for the attack. “We are on heightened alert on defense and offensive, we will protect the citizens of Israel. This [missile] fire will have consequences. We have plans, and we will act in the time and place that we choose,” said IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. Hagari also said there were no more threats coming from Iran, suggesting the attack was over. He said some of the missiles were intercepted but that there were impacts in southern and central Israel, and the number of casualties is being assessed. The White House said President Biden has directed the US military to intervene to defend Israel from Iran’s attacks and shoot down missiles that are targeting Israel.The attack came after the White House said that it had information that Iran was preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel and vowed the US would come to Israel’s defense.According to CNN, the White House said it had “indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel” and added that the US was “actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack.” “A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a White House official said Tuesday.The warning from the US comes amid Israel’s escalations in Lebanon, where it has killed over 1,000 people since last Monday.According to Axios, the US warned Israel around noon Israel time (5 am EST) that an Iranian attack could come in the next few hours. Later in the day, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he spoke with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about the alleged Iranian threat.
Iran fires at least 180 missiles into Israel as regionwide conflict grows (AP) — Iran launched at least 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday, the latest in a series of rapidly escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its Arab allies that threatens to push the Middle East closer to a regionwide war. Iran said the barrage was retaliation for a series of devastating blows Israel has landed in recent weeks against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been firing rockets into Israel since the war in Gaza began. Earlier Tuesday, Israel launched what it said is a limited ground incursion in southern Lebanon. Israelis scrambled for bomb shelters as air raid sirens sounded and the orange glow of missiles streaked across the night sky. Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the country’s air defenses intercepted many of the incoming Iranian missiles, though some landed in central and southern Israel. Israel’s national rescue service said two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel. In the West Bank, Palestinian officials said a Palestinian man was killed by a missile that fell near the town of Jericho, though it wasn’t clear where the attack originated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed late Tuesday to retaliate against Iran, which he said “made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.” Iran’s armed forces joint chief of staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri warned that Iran would respond to action against its territory with strikes on Israel’s entire infrastructure with “multiplied intensity.” Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire pounded southern Lebanese villages on Tuesday, and Hezbollah responded with a barrage of rockets into Israel. There was no immediate word on casualties. Moments before Iran launched its missiles, a shooting attack in Tel Aviv left at least six people dead, police said, adding that the two suspects who had opened fire on a boulevard in the Jaffa neighborhood had also been killed. Hezbollah and Hamas are close allies backed by Iran, and each escalation has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East that could draw in Iran and the United States, which has rushed military assets to the region in support of Israel. Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for years, but rarely have they come into direct conflict. The U.N. Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for Wednesday morning to address the escalating situation in the Middle East. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran’s missile attack a “significant escalation,” although he said it was ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because of assistance from the U.S. military in shooting down some of the inbound missiles. President Joe Biden said his administration is “fully supportive” of Israel and that he’s in “active discussion” with aides about what the appropriate response should be to Tehran. Iran said it fired Tuesday’s missiles as retaliation for attacks that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military. It referenced Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut. It also mentioned Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader in Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack in July. Israel has said it will continue to strike Hezbollah until it is safe for citizens displaced from homes near the Lebanon border to return. Hezbollah has vowed to keep firing rockets into Israel until there is a cease-fire in Gaza with Hamas, which is also supported by Iran.On Tuesday morning, Israel warned people in southern Lebanon to evacuate to the north of the Awali River, some 60 kilometers (36 miles) from the border and much farther than the Litani River, which marks the northern edge of a U.N.-declared zone intended to serve as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah after their 2006 war. The border region has largely emptied out over the past year as the two sides have traded fire. An Associated Press reporter saw Israeli troops operating near the border in armored trucks, with helicopters circling overhead, but could not confirm ground forces had crossed into Lebanon.Hezbollah is a well-trained militia, believed to have tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles. The last round of fighting in 2006 ended in a stalemate, and both sides have spent the past two decades preparing for their next showdown. The group’s acting leader, Naim Kassem, said Monday that Hezbollah commanders killed in recent weeks have already been replaced. As the fighting intensifies, European countries have begun pulling their diplomats and citizens out of Lebanon.
Rabobank: Iran Just Made A Huge Strategic Error - Overnight, around 200 ballistic missiles were again fired into Israel from Iran, most shot down in flight with the help of the US, UK, and Jordan, others hitting open areas near real targets, with only one casualty, a Palestinian. However, thinking this is a repeat of April’s “choreographed” Iranian strike that will be met by a token Israeli response is taking a bold bet. Back in April, I said we’d revisit that episode with worse consequences; and here we are. For those who hadn’t noticed - that includes Haniyeh and Nasrallah - Israel’s strategic dynamic has changed. It’s no longer trading blow for blow with others within prescribed geography and scale but climbing the escalation ladder to force its enemies to jump off or be smashed. Iran therefore just made a huge strategic error. Indeed, PM Netanyahu, who restored Israeli deterrence while declaring there are no red lines for it in the region cannot now show Iran is off limits. Doubly, when central Israel spent the night before Jewish new year in bomb shelters. Triply, when Iran’s shield of Hamas and Hezbollah are dismantled. Quadruply, when his new coalition member is an Iran hawk and his most potent potential political rival, former PM Bennet, tweets now is the time to strike the head of the Iranian octopus. Quintuply, when western leaders are behind Israel. Dutch PM Wilders insulted Supreme Leader Khamenei in Hebrew. Even the US stated it will help with “severe consequences” for what Iran just did rather than telling Israel to “take the win,” as reports are the US also backed Israel’s move against Hezbollah. In the second Harris/Walz-Trump/Vance debate, the first question was on the Middle East. Walz said, “Let’s keep in mind where this started,” i.e., October 7, and Israel’s ability to defend itself is “absolutely fundamental.” Vance concurred, “We should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.” Walz noted Iran is closer to being a nuclear power, a line Vance could also have used. The list of Israeli targets proportionate to their escalation vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is short:
- Military radar systems would leave Iran open for IDF air attacks.
- Iran’s nuclear program would require US assistance.
- The simplest target is oil infrastructure to remove the earnings paying for its and its proxies’ weapons, and to destabilise the regime.
Yet Iranian state Telegram chatgroups, and an Iranian professor of literature(!) interviewed by the BBC, say if their oil is hit, they will burn Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE, Bahraini, and Azerbaijani oil – an escalation threat we have been flagging as a fat tail risk since immediately after October 7. (Note Qatar, a key supplier of LNG to the EU, is absent from this list despite ostensibly being a major US ally…) As such, the US might also oppose this move: but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Of course, Israel hitting Iran too hard could mean war, dragging others in; even so, it likely sees more risk in doing too little with its next strike than doing too much. For markets, the risk is therefore also around where one’s strikes are placed. Oil went up around 5% yesterday and has only come down slightly since; indeed, the above may still be just a tail risk - a literature professor is after all an expert in fiction - but it’s as fat as they come. In the Far East, trouble brews too. Japanese PM Ishiba, whom I noted yesterday is a foreign policy hawk who favours an Asian NATO with regional nuclear weapons, is making headlines today for [checks notes] supporting the creation of an ‘Asia NATO’ to deter China, Russia and North Korea with nuclear weapons – American or otherwise(!) This has huge implications.
World On Fire: Houthi Rebels Targeted Two Ships In Red Sea While Iran Launched Missiles At Israel - As the news cycle on Tuesday centered on Iran's launch of 180 ballistic missiles, including new hypersonic weapons, tensions also flared up in the Red Sea when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two commercial vessels—one with an explosive-laden drone and the other with a missile.Houston-based data intelligence firm SynMax, which specializes in maritime and energy intelligence, wrote on X early Tuesday morning, "Two ships targeted by Houthis in the RedSea yesterday—Panama-flagged CORDELIA MOON and Liberian-flagged MINOAN COURAGE—the first such attacks since September." AP News provided additional color on the attacks:The first attack took place some 110 kilometers (70 miles) off the port city of Hodeida and targeted the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon, the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center said. A captain on a ship saw four "splashes" near the vessel, the center overseen by the U.S. Navy said. That likely would have been missiles launched at the vessel that missed.The drone boat later damaged the Cordelia Moon, which sustained a puncture to one of its ballast tanks in the attack. Those tanks control a ship's buoyancy. Houthi strikes in the past have targeted ships at their waterline to disable the vessels....Another attack with a missile targeted a separate ship also heading north to the Suez Canal with armed security on board, Ambrey said. The British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center later identified it as the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage.Since October 2023, Houthi rebels have launched over 80 attacks on commercial ships in the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea, sinking two ships and killing four sailors.
Biden escalates toward disastrous war against Iran - The United States and Israel stand on the verge of a direct attack on Iran, with the most far-reaching and catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and the whole world. Using Iran’s attack on Israeli military infrastructure Tuesday as a pretext, the White House has effectively given Israel carte blanche to carry out an illegal attack against the second most populous country in the region (after Egypt). “We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us [referring to the G7 nations] agree that they have a right to respond,” Biden said Wednesday. Reuters commented in a news report, “[T]he US is not pressing Israel to refrain from retaliation.” One year after the start of the Gaza genocide, it has become clear that Israel seized upon the events of October 7 to implement long-held plans to ethnically cleanse and annex all Palestinian territories. This is part of a regional war throughout the Middle East to conquer what the Zionist state claims to be its biblical borders. For the United States, it has been a means to cement imperialist control over the oil-rich Middle East region and to establish the Middle East and Central Asia as a firm base for US military operations in order to press ahead with its confrontation with Russia and China. It is high time to put an end to the myth that Israel is an actor independent of the United States. Israel’s primary function is to serve as an attack dog and instrument of the interests of American imperialism throughout the entire region. As always, neither the US government nor the media is making any effort to inform the public about the monumental consequences of the plans now underway. During the first and only vice presidential debate between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance on Tuesday, moderator Margaret Brennan asked both candidates, “Would you support or oppose a preemptive strike by Israel on Iran?” Walz said, “We will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences.” Vance added, “Look, it is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe. And we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys.” After the candidates delivered their one-line responses, no one bothered to note, first, that such an attack would be completely illegal, and second, that it would have monumental and historic consequences for the entire world. The developing US-Israeli war with Iran threatens to engulf the entire region in flames. This week, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan warned, “The Israeli government is acting in the illusion of a promised land, with religious fanaticism. After Palestine and Lebanon, our homeland will be the place they look at. Everything is aimed at this now.” Erdogan’s statement is an indication of the extent to which the actions of Israel and the US are provoking alarm throughout the region and the world. There is a growing sense that the United States and its Israeli attack dog are out of control. The US media is presenting a looming Israeli attack on Iran as a response to the strikes launched by Iran on Israeli military bases on Tuesday. In fact, Iran’s attack was a response to a series of US-Israeli bombings, murders and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of people throughout the Middle East. Iran’s missile strike on Israel took place just one day after Israel launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, following days of escalating air bombardments that left thousands of people dead. On Saturday, Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, using 85 US-supplied 2,000-pound bombs that completely leveled high-rise residential buildings, killing hundreds. It follows Israel’s assassination of the head of Hamas’s political wing in Tehran, who was an official guest of the Iranian government. The Iranian regime has repeatedly adopted an attitude of restraint to these US and Israeli provocations. There was no significant response to the murder of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and Iran’s regime has tolerated repeated assassinations of scientists, and most recently, an Israeli bombing in Tehran itself. The president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking for the Iranian ruling class, has repeatedly adopted the most conciliatory attitude toward the imperialist powers. These efforts at conciliation have now failed, and the Iranian regime is coming under increasing pressure to resist and retaliate. The leaders of American imperialism believe that through launching a bloodbath of violence in the Middle East and blowing past all “red lines,” they will be able to undo the consequences of the debacles suffered by US imperialism over decades. They are deluding themselves. What leads them to believe that war with Iran, a country of 90 million people and a highly sophisticated society, will have any better outcome than the invasion of Iraq?
Biden Says US and Israel Are Discussing Strikes on Iranian Oil Facilities - President Biden said Thursday that the US and Israel were discussing the possibility of striking Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage that targeted Israel on Tuesday, which was a response to multiple Israeli escalations.When asked by a reporter if he would support Israeli strikes on Iranian oil sites, Biden said, “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little… anyway.” The comments sent oil prices spiking.Striking Iran’s oil facilities is supported by the ultra-hawkish Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “These oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror,” Graham said in a statement on Tuesday.On Wednesday, Biden said he wouldn’t support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but the US is vowing to ensure Tehran faces “severe consequences.” Israeli officials have told Axios that they plan to hit Iran hard and believe their attack could lead to a major regional war.Options being considered besides striking oil facilities are targeting Iran’s air defenses or carrying out a targeted assassination inside Iran. Israeli officials have said that if Iran responds to their next attack, then any option is on the table, including strikes on nuclear facilities.Israel is coordinating its plans to attack Iran with the US because it wants the US to come to its defense in the event of another significant Iranian attack. If Israel wants to carry out a significant strike inside Iran, it may also need support from the US military.The president previously said he wouldn't support strikes on nuclear facilities
Israel Kills 61 Palestinians in Gaza Over Three Days - Israeli forces have killed at least 61 Palestinians in Gaza over the past three days, according to numbers released by Gaza’s Health Ministry.On Saturday, the ministry said 52 Palestinians were killed, and 118 were wounded in the previous 48-hour period. On Sunday, the ministry said nine were killed and 41 were injured over the previous 24-hour period.The violence brings the Health Ministry’s death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,595 and the number of wounded to 96,251. The numbers are an undercount since they don’t account for the estimated 10,000 Palestinians who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble, and the number of indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege is unknown.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry said on Sunday.Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that at least 28 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza since dawn, a number that likely includes people killed after the Health Ministry put out its daily update.The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that one of the attacks targeted a school that was sheltering displaced Palestinians in the northern town of Beit Lahia, killing at least four people and wounding 15. Children and women were among the casualties. Earlier this month, Gaza’s Health Ministry released the names of 34,344 Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces, including 11,355 children. Among the children were 710 infants who did not make it to their first birthday.
Israel Kills 23 More Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that at least 23 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in Gaza over the previous 24-hour period, bringing the recorded death toll since October 7, 2023, to 41,638.Another 101 Palestinians were injured by Israeli attacks, bringing the total number of wounded to 96,460. The Health Ministry’s numbers are an undercount since they only include dead and wounded Palestinians who have been brought to hospitals and morgues.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry said.Later on Tuesday, Palestinian health officials told Middle East Eye that the Israeli military killed at least 37 people in Gaza on Tuesday. The Health Ministry’s figures are usually put out around mid-day Gaza time, meaning it doesn’t include all the Palestinians killed on that day.Israeli attacks on Tuesday included two strikes on houses in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, which killed at least 13 people, including women and children. Another strike hit a school-turned-shelter for displaced people in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City, killing at least seven.The latest massacres in Gaza come as the world’s attention is on Lebanon and the Iranian missile attacks on Israel. The regional escalations put much less scrutiny on Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly considering an ethnic cleansing plan for northern Gaza.In September, Gaza’s Health Ministry released the names of 34,344 Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces, including 11,355 children. Among the children were 710 infants who did not make it to their first birthday.
Israeli Airstrikes in Lebanon Kill at Least 55 in 24 Hours - The Lebanese Health Ministry has said Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon killed 95 people and wounded 156 as Israeli strikes continue to hit targets across the country. “The Israeli enemy’s raids in the past twenty-four hours on towns and villages in southern Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and Mount Lebanon resulted in a total death toll of 55 people and the injury of 156,” the ministry wrote on X on Wednesday, just after midnight Beirut time.According to AFP, Lebanon’s disaster agency said earlier that Israeli operations in Lebanon have killed 1,873 people since October 8, 2023. Over 1,000 have been killed, including many civilians, since Israel dramatically ramped up its bombing campaign on September 23.Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday continued to target the capital, Beirut. According to Middle East Eye, Israel targeted a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahiyeh and a building near Kuwait’s embassy in the city.The airstrikes came as the Israeli military said its forces were carrying out limited ground raids in southern Lebanon, although both Hezbollah and the Lebanese military denied Israeli troops entered the country. Israel told people in southern Lebanon to evacuate an area that stretches to 36 miles from the Israeli border, adding to the massive displacement crisis caused by the Israeli military operations. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said earlier this week that one million people may have been displaced.
New Israeli Strike On Damascus Kills Several Civilians Amid Fears Of Regional War Israel on Wednesday has once again targeted Damascus - but which marks the first time Israel's military has struck Syria since the Tuesday night major ballistic missile attack by Iran.The fresh airstrike happened in broad daylight in a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of the capital, killing at least three civilians, according to state-run SANA. Another three were reported wounded.Some unverified reports say that a multi-story residential building was hit. It is unclear what Israeli jets might have been targeting, but Israeli media often casts these operations as against 'Iranian assets'.Israeli jets often fire into Syria from over unguarded Lebanese airspace, also as Lebanon has no air force or anti-air missile systems to speak of. Such attacks have been growing in the last days and weeks in the context of the escalating war in Lebanon, despite the Syrian Army staying on the sidelines thus far.Israel sees Damascus as a key enabler of the 'pro-Iran/pro-Shia axis' of Tehran-Baghdad-Beirut, given Syria has hosted Iranian and Hezbollah troops on its soil going back near the start of the Syrian proxy war of the past decade. Tuesday had seen a major Israeli attack on the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, resulting in the death a popular Syrian television anchor. State television had described in a statement— ...that it "mourns anchor Safaa Ahmad who was martyred in the Israeli aggression on the capital Damascus". The official SANA news agency earlier said "air defense systems are intercepting hostile targets for the third time tonight in the Damascus area", using a phrase that usually refers to Israeli strikes. Currently Israel is said to be planning a large-scale retaliation against Iran. There are growing fears this could spark all-out war in the region, which could draw in Syria. Israel bombed a residential neighborhood in Syria's capital, Damascus.pic.twitter.com/GURSXzROGk Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first words in the wake of the attack were "Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it" and included the vow, "whoever attacks us — we will attack them." "The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him," Netanyahu continued.
The Western Media Helped Create These Horrors In The Middle East - Caitlin Johnstone - The US and Iran are on the brink of war. Israel and the United States areplanning a major attack on Iran, which according to Biden himself could entail strikes on Iranian oil sites. Iran is now saying that its days of “individual self-restraint” are over, and it is prepared to go all-in if the US and Israel keep ramping up escalations. The IDF continues to slaughter civilians in Lebanon with US-backed airstrikes as news surfaces that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a 21-day ceasefire with Israel shortly before Israel assassinated him. The US reportedly knew about the deal.And of course Israel is still killing dozens of civilians a day in its daily massacres in Gaza. Ninety-nine American healthcare workers who volunteered in the enclave have published an open letter to their president detailing the horrors that they have witnessed, and estimating the current death toll from this onslaught is over 118,908.And at this juncture in history, I think it would be good for us to give the western press their due credit for helping to take us here by manufacturing consent for the political environment in which such western-supported atrocities are possible.All the mass media personnel who’ve been lying and manipulating for Israel helped pave the way to this.All the pundits and reporters who’ve been assigning far more weight to the Israeli deaths on October 7 than to the vastly greater number of Arab deaths before and since.All the editors who’ve been running “Gaza child walks into bullet” passive-language headlines designed to mask Israel’s responsibility for the killings. Everyone who uncritically reported fake atrocity propaganda about beheaded babies and mass rapes as real news stories.Everyone who uncritically parrots e very claim made by the IDF and the Israeli government but refuses to report what Palestinians have been saying unless Israel confirms it.Everyone at the press galleries in Washington who fail to forcefully interrogate US officials for the lies and spin they’ve been spewing about Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. Everyone who publishes White House press releases disguised as news stories about how angry and upset Biden is about the Israeli war crimes he knowingly refuses to prevent. Everyone who reports on starvation and sickness in Gaza like it’s some kind of natural disaster and not the inevitable consequence of deliberate siege warfare by Israel. Everyone who treated Iranian missiles targeting Israeli military facilities without killing anybody as more horrific and significant than Israel’s daily massacres of civilians. Everyone who uncritically regurgitates the phrase “Hamas-run health ministry”. Everyone who uncritically calls Hezbollah a “terrorist organization”. All the high-profile opinion columnists who’ve been running nonstop apologia for Israel’s criminality and encouraging the west to support even further aggressiveness. Reporters who refer to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria as “Iran-backed” but never refers to the Israeli military as “US-backed”. Everyone who helps frame the Biden administration as a passive and reluctant witness to Israel’s mass atrocities instead of a willing and active participant. Everyone who called Israel’s invasion of Lebanon a “limited ground operation” after ridiculing Russia for calling its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation”. Everyone who framed the pager bombings and assassination strikes in Lebanon as heroic achievements of extraordinarily sophisticated intelligence when they’d be shrieking their lungs out if a nation like Iran or Russia did anything similar. Everyone who helps lend credence to the false narrative that opposition to Israeli murderousness is indicative of an epidemic of “antisemitism” in our society. All the mass media staff who helped manufacture public consent for the horrors we’ve been watching in the middle east are just as responsible for what happens there as the people who are physically inflicting the violence. They may as well have dropped the bombs and launched the missiles themselves. They may as well have pulled the triggers on the sniper rifles that shot all those Palestinian children in the head. They may as well have personally inserted those iron rods into the anuses of Palestinian prisoners. The propagandists of the western press are just as essential to maintaining the western-backed atrocities that Israel is committing as the Israeli military itself. No matter how much you despise these psychopathic manipulators, it’s less than they deserve.
Japan’s ruling party selects far right leader as prime minister - Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new president on Friday. As head of the party, he will be installed as the country’s new prime minister at a parliamentary session tomorrow, replacing Fumio Kishida. Ishiba’s selection marks a significant further shift to the right in official Japanese politics that will accelerate remilitarization and preparations for war against China. Nine candidates ran in what was a highly anti-democratic affair. In the first round of voting, Ishiba came in second to fellow anti-China hawk Sanae Takaichi, who was close to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and represented Abe’s faction. Falling short of a majority, the two went to a run-off vote. Ishiba then received 215 votes to Takaichi’s 194. The voting process heavily favored the LDP’s parliamentarians from both the lower and upper houses of the National Diet, who were each allotted one vote for a total of 368. The party’s membership of 1.1 million received a fraction of a vote, with their totals also equalling 368 points. In the run-off, the Diet members kept their vote totals while other party members were excluded. Each of the LDP’s chapters from Japan’s 47 prefectures instead received a vote. Outgoing PM Kishida announced on August 14 that he would not stand for reelection as party president, essentially resigning as prime minister, after coming under pressure over corruption scandals that have gripped the party. Rather than corruption, the chief concerns of the LDP and ruling class were the ability of the government to prepare for war while suppressing growing working-class opposition to attacks on living conditions at home. This paved the way for Ishiba, who has often postured as a party “outsider,” pledged to “clean up” the LDP. In reality, he is a longstanding member of the party and, like many in the Japanese government, comes from an established political family. His father, Jiro Ishiba, began his career as a bureaucrat before World War II and was governor of Tottori Prefecture from 1958 until 1974 before being elected to the upper house of the National Diet. Jiro Ishiba also served in the cabinet of Zenko Suzuki as home affairs minister. Following his father’s death in 1981, the LDP recruited the younger Ishiba to run for a Diet seat from Tottori Province in 1986. Ishiba’s career has been marked by involvement with the military and a focus on Japan’s remilitarization. From 2002 to 2004, he served as the director of the Defense Agency, which became the Defense Ministry in 2007. He then became defense minister from 2007 to 2008. He has held other cabinet positions while also serving as the LDP’s secretary-general from 2012 to 2014. He previously ran for LDP president in 2008, 2012, 2018 and 2020. Ishiba is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an ultra-nationalist organization that not only advocates remilitarization, but the tearing up of basic democratic rights. To the extent that Ishiba differs from other politicians within his party, it has been over the pace of remilitarization. Ishiba has advocated a more rapid program of rearming, which includes spending more on the military than the current plan to double the military budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product by 2027. He was a critique of the right-wing Abe government for not going far enough, even as it carried out constitutional “reinterpretations” to work around post-World War II legal barriers to remilitarizing and rammed legislation through parliament to enable Japan to go to war alongside allies. Now, without even waiting to be confirmed as prime minister, Ishiba has made clear that his government will be one of militarism and war. In an article for the right-wing Washington-based Hudson Institute published shortly after his election as LDP chief, Ishiba reiterated the LDP’s longstanding plans for constitutional revision. Though Ishiba did not state it explicitly, he has on previous occasions declared that Article 9 of the constitution, which formally bars Japan from maintaining a military or going to war, should be deleted, not just changed to directly recognize the existence of the armed forces, currently called the “Self-Defense Forces,” as the Abe faction has advocated. Ishiba called for the creation of an “Asian NATO” that would be capable of fighting a war with China, as well as Russia and North Korea. In doing so, he is pushing for Japan to play a larger role militarily within the Indo-Pacific, speaking for sections of the capitalist class that advocate more independence from Washington. In addition, Ishiba proposed revising the post World War II US-Japan security treaty, changing it “into a treaty between ‘ordinary countries.’” He criticized the existing treaty for being “structured so that the US is obligated to ‘defend’ Japan, and Japan is obligated to ‘provide bases’ to the US.”
World War II Bomb Dropped by U.S. Explodes at Japanese Airport - An unexploded U.S. bomb from World War II suddenly detonated at Miyazaki Airport in southwestern Japan on Wednesday. The blast caused significant disruption, as it left a large crater in a taxiway and forced the cancellation of more than 80 flights, but there were no casualties. The bomb, which had remained buried at the site since the war, suddenly exploded although there were no aircraft nearby, according to Japan's Land and Transport Ministry. Officials have confirmed that the blast was caused by a 500-pound U.S. bomb but they assured the public that there is now no cause for concern.Investigators, including Japan's Self-Defense Forces and police, are now working to determine what triggered the bomb's sudden detonation after it had lain dormant for decades.Video footage captured by a nearby aviation school showed the force of the blast, with pieces of asphalt spewing into the air like a fountain. Japanese television aired dramatic images of a crater on the taxiway, which reportedly measured about 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter and 1 meter (3 feet) deep. An investigation into the blast is ongoing, with officials working to ensure that the site is thoroughly secured. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced that over 80 flights had been canceled as a precaution, severely affecting travel in the region. Authorities are hopeful that operations at Miyazaki Airport can resume as soon as Thursday morning.The airfield at Miyazaki was originally built in 1943 as a flight training facility for the Imperial Japanese Navy and kamikaze pilots launched suicide missions from there during the final stages of World War II. The surrounding area has seen a number of unexploded bombs unearthed over the years, a legacy of missions carried out by U.S. forces during the conflict. The issue of unexploded ordnance from World War II remains a pressing concern for Japan, with hundreds of tons of bombs still buried across the country. These hidden relics occasionally come to light during construction projects and other activities, posing a significant risk to public safety.This latest incident is a stark reminder that, even decades after the end of World War II, remnants of the conflict continue to have a tangible impact on daily life in Japan. While these bombs are typically discovered under controlled conditions, their unpredictable nature, as highlighted by Wednesday's incident, shows the importance of continued vigilance and robust safety measures.
Freetrade buys UK arm of Australian investing platform Stake --London-based online trading platform Freetrade told CNBC Tuesday that it's agreed to buy the U.K. customer book of Stake, an Australian investing app. The move is part of a broader bid from Freetrade to bolster its domestic business and comes as British digital investment platforms face rising competition from new entrants — not least U.S. heavyweight Robinhood . The startup told CNBC exclusively that it entered into a transaction with Stake to take on all of the company's clients and move all assets the firm manages in the U.K. over to its own platform. Freetrade and Stake declined to disclose financial information of the deal, including the value of Stake's U.K. customer book. Stake, which is based in Sydney, Australia, was founded in 2017 by entrepreneurs Matt Leibowitz, Dan Silver and Jon Abitz with the aim of providing low-cost brokerage services to retail investors in Australia. The company, which also operates in New Zealand, launched its services in the U.K. in 2020. However, after a recent business review, Stake decided to focus primarily on its Australia and New Zealand operations. Following the deal, customers of Stake U.K. will be contacted with details about how to move their money and other assets over to Freetrade in "the coming weeks," the companies said. Customers will still be able to use their Stake account until assets and cash are transferred to Freetrade in November. Freetrade operates primarily in the U.K. but has sought to expand into the European Union. It offers a range of investment products on its platform, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, individual savings accounts, and government bonds. As of April 2024, it had more than 1.4 million users. Earlier this year, CNBC reported that the startup's co-founder and CEO, Adam Dodds, had decided to depart the company after six years at the helm. He was replaced by Viktor Nebehaj, the firm's then-chief operating officer. Freetrade was a beneficiary of the 2020 and 2021 retail stock investing frenzy, which saw GameStop and other so-called "meme stocks" jump to wild highs. In the years that followed, Freetrade and its rivals, including Robinhood were impacted by higher interest rates which hammered investor sentiment. In 2022, Freetrade announced plans to lay off 15% of its workforce. The following year, the firm saw its valuation slump 65% to £225 million ($301 million) in an equity crowdfunding round. Freetrade at the time blamed a "different market environment" for the reduction in its market value. More recently, though, things have been turning around for the startup. Freetrade reported its first-ever half year of profit in 2024, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization hitting £91,000 in the six months through June. Revenues climbed 34% year-over-year, to £13.1 million.
UN Security Council extends Haiti security mission - The United Nations Security Council on Monday unanimously renewed a multinational security support mission (MSS) in Haiti to combat armed gangs after the U.S. dropped a push to enlarge the effort into a peacekeeping force. The resolution, led by the U.S. and Ecuador, extends the MSS for another year, until October 2025, giving police forces more time to address the surge of violent gangs in the Caribbean island nation. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the renewal “sends a strong message to the people of Haiti.” “The world stands with you, and we are unwavering in our efforts to restore security and stability,” she told media in New York. “Haiti continues to face a prolonged crisis aggravated by the activities of criminal gangs and their indiscriminate violent attacks that disproportionately impacts the civilian population, especially women and children.” The U.S. effort to transform the MSS into a peacekeeping mission met opposition from China and Russia, which are permanent members of the Security Council and hold veto power. Both countries had expressed concern the mission was not yet ready for such a transformation, and the resolution was ultimately amended to remove the language of a peacekeeping effort. The MSS, led by Kenya, initially deployed in June and now has some 400 police officers supporting the Haitian National Police. It has achieved some progress in wrestling back control from armed gangs in the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince, but the effort remains underfunded and has yet to push out the gangs controlling most of the city. Kenyan President William Ruto said he was “deeply grateful” for the financial support for the MSS, but that the mission was “hindered by insufficient equipment, logistics and funding.” “I appeal to all member states to stand in solidarity with the people of Haiti,” he said in an address to the U.N. last week. “The progress so far in Haiti demonstrates that what was once deemed mission impossible is indeed a present and undeniable possibility.” Ruto added that even with funding concerns he expects to deploy the entire police force of 2,500 officers by January. The U.S. and Canada are the biggest supporters of the MSS. Washington has contributed some $300 million to the mission, and Canada has donated more than $80 million in support, but much of the funding requirements for the MSS have not been met.
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