FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated. Several observed that the disinflationary process may have stalled temporarily or noted the risk that it could. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated. Reflecting that uncertainty, participants took varied approaches in accounting for these effects. A number of participants indicated that they incorporated placeholder assumptions to one degree or another into their projections. Other participants indicated that they did not incorporate such assumptions, and a few participants did not indicate whether they incorporated such assumptions.
Trump criticizes Powell and Fed over inflation and interest rates - President-elect Trump on Tuesday declared interest rates are too high even as he decried still-elevated inflation, setting up renewed tensions with the central bank chair who resisted pressure cut rates during his first term. “We are inheriting a difficult situation from the outgoing administration, and they’re trying everything they can to make it more difficult. Inflation is continuing to rage, and interest rates are far too high,” Trump said during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. High prices and the economy proved a winning message for Republicans on the campaign trail, even as the Biden administration made massive gains in bringing down pandemic-induced inflation. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to two-decade highs between March 2022 and July 2023 as inflation soared, peaking at 9.1 percent in June 2022. The consumer price index clocked in at 2.7 percent year-over-year in November, still above the Fed’s 2 percent target. As inflation has come down, the Fed finally cut interest rates for the first time in September and again in November and December. The federal funds rate is currently 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the panel of Fed officials responsible for setting monetary policy such as interest rates, is slated to meet again at the end of the month, shortly after Trump takes office. Trump, who appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his first term in 2017, frequently pushed the politically independent Fed to cut rates during his first term to advance his political goals. He frequently broke from tradition by publicly rebuking Powell, whom he has said he would not reappoint. However, Trump said he will allow Powell to serve out his term, which ends in 2026.Powell said after the election that he would not step down if Trump asked him to. While Powell tried to stay out of the limelight during the campaign, Trump’s comments repeatedly dragged him back into the political spotlight.The president-elect blasted Powell as “political” during the campaign and suggested he would cut rates ahead of the election to help Democrats. While the FOMC announced a 50 basis point cut in September, Democrats still lost the White House and control of the Senate and failed to capture a majority in the House.During the elections, Trump also suggested he should “have at least a say” over monetary policy because he “made a lot of money.” While he appeared to soften that stance during an interview with Bloomberg, he still said “it’s fine for a president to talk.”“It doesn’t mean that they have to listen,” Trump said.
Fed's Waller unconcerned about 'draconian' tariff policy - While President-elect Donald Trump's tough talk on tariffs has some economists worried, at least one Federal Reserve official believes the trade policies will not destabilize prices over the long term. In a Wednesday morning speech, the Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said President-elect Donald Trump's nascent trade policy will likely lead to a one-time jump in prices rather than broader inflationary pressure. He also said he expects further interest rate cuts in 2025.
Top Fed official backs new rate cuts -- A top policymaker at the U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday that he still supports cutting interest rates this year, despite elevated inflation and the prospect of widespread tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed's board of governors, said he expects inflation will move closer to the Fed's 2% target in the coming months. And in some of the first comments by a Fed official specifically about tariffs, he said that greater import duties likely won't push up inflation this year. "My bottom-line message is that I believe more cuts will be appropriate," Waller said in Paris at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view," Waller added. His remarks are noteworthy because the effects of tariffs will be a wild card this year for the U.S. economy. Financial markets have been weighed down in recent months partly on fears that inflation may continue to be an issue, and that tariffs could make it worse. Producers tend to raise prices for customers to offset the increased costs of tariffs on imported materials and goods. Yet Waller suggested that he is more optimistic about inflation than many Wall Street investors. "I believe that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% goal over the medium term and that further (rate) reductions will be appropriate," Waller said. While inflation has been persistent in recent months -- it ticked up to 2.4% in November, according to the Fed's preferred measure -- Waller argued that outside of housing, which is difficult to measure, prices are cooling. Waller's remarks run counter to increasing expectations on Wall Street that the Fed may not cut its key rate much, if at all, this year with high prices lingering. The rate is currently about 4.3% after several reductions last year from a two-decade high of 5.3%. Financial markets are expecting just one rate cut in 2025, according to futures pricing tracked by CME Fedwatch. Waller did not say how many cuts he specifically supports. Instead he said that Fed officials projected two reductions this year as a group in December. But he also noted that policymakers supported a wide range of outcomes, from no cuts to as many as five. The number of reductions will depend on progress towards reducing inflation, he said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the effect of tariffs on Fed policy and inflation is difficult to predict, until it's clearer which imports are hit with tariffs and whether other nations retaliate with their own. But at the Fed's last news conference in December, Powell acknowledged that some of the central bank's 19 policymakers are starting to incorporate the potential effects of President-elect Donald Trump's policies on the economy. "Some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecast at this meeting," Powell said. Other officials did not take such a step, he said, while some didn't specify whether they did so. Other Fed officials have recently suggested that the Fed will move more slowly on rate cuts this year, after cutting at each of its last three meetings in 2024. Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's governing board, said Monday that the central bank can "proceed more cautiously" with rate reductions. Waller, in a question and answer session, said that one reason longer-term rates have risen is because of concern that the federal government's budget deficit, already huge, could remain so or even increase. Higher longer-term rates have pushed up the cost of mortgages and other borrowing, putting increased pressure on both businesses and consumers. "At some point the markets are going to demand a premium to accept the risk of financing" such increased borrowing, he said. Federal Reserve officials at their meeting Dec. 17-18 expected to dial back the pace of interest rate cuts this year in the face of persistently elevated inflation and the threat of widespread tariffs and other potential policy changes. Minutes from the meeting, released Wednesday after the typical three-week lag, also showed clear division among the Fed's 19 policymakers. Some officials expressed support for keeping the central bank's key rate unchanged, the minutes said. And a majority of the officials said the decision to cut rates was a close call. Ultimately, the Fed choose to cut its key rate by a quarter point. One official, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged. Still, there was widespread agreement in the minutes that after reducing rates for three straight meetings, Fed officials felt it was time to undertake a more deliberate approach to their key rate.
This Strength of the Labor Market & Economy, amid Accelerating Inflation, Puts the Fed Back into Wait-and-See Mode by Wolf Richter • Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 256,000 in December, after having risen by 212,000 in November, to 159.5 million jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (blue in the chart below).The three-month average rose by 170,000, same as in the prior month, and both had been the biggest increases since May (red). The three-month average irons out the month-to-month squiggles, including the effects of the Boeing strike and the hurricanes that had hammered down October’s job gains but were recaptured in the following months.Over the past twelve months, employers added 2.23 million jobs, roughly 5% more than the three-year average before the pandemic. These are healthy job gains – in a way, surprisingly strong job gains, given the relatively high interest rates.Fed rate cuts move further into the distance. The strength of this labor market and the growth of the economy that has been well above the 15-year average – despite the relatively high policy rates by the Fed – have led many to believe, including Fed governor Michelle Bowman yesterday, that the Fed’s policy interest rates are in fact already close to or at “neutral” and don’t need to be cut further to maintain solid economic growth and a healthy labor market.And upside risks to the inflation outlook and the recent re-acceleration of inflation metrics have further darkened the future of any rate cuts. Powell himself had said at the press conference that “we still have work to do.” Maybe those 100 basis points in cuts is all the economy is going to get, as the Fed is gingerly shifting back into its wait-and-see mode.Average hourly earnings rose by 3.4% annualized in December from November, after two months in a row of 4.5% increases (blue line). The three-month average rose by 4.1% annualized in December from November (red).Year-over-year, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% in December, similar as in the prior two months. The job gains in those three months were the highest since May, and substantially above even the peaks of the 2017-2019 Good Times period.The headline unemployment rate (U-3), based on the survey of households, edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Unrounded, it was the lowest since June. Over the past seven month, the unemployment rate has averaged 4.1%, a historically low unemployment rate.The unemployment rate = number of unemployed people who’d actively looked for a job over the past four weeks, divided by the labor force (number of working people plus the number of people actively looking for work).December’s unemployment rate of 4.1% is below the Fed’s median projection for the end of 2024, which it had lowered to 4.2%, and is below the Fed’s median projection for the end of 2025 (4.3%), according to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections released at the December meeting.In late 2023 and in the first half of 2024, the unemployment rate had zigzagged higher from record lows, and the trend was up, and by mid-2024, the Fed started projecting rising employment trends amid weak job creation.But that up-trend of the unemployment rate broke in the second half. Job creation has stabilized at healthy levels, and the unemployment rate has stabilized around a historically low 4.1%, and the Fed’s projections have stabilized a well. Employment to be adjusted in February for 8 million new legal and illegal migrants.The BLS uses the Census Bureau’s population data to extrapolate the employment data from the household survey to the overall population. The household survey generates total employment, the labor force, unemployment, unemployment rate, etc.On December 19, the Census Bureau released its annual revision of the US population data, showing that the US population soared by 8.01 million people in the three years from July 2021 through July 2024, mostly from net-immigration, both legal and illegal. Many of these immigrants are already working, or are looking for work.This population surge is not included in today’s employment data, but will be included in the employment data to be released in February, the BLS said today.In percentage terms, the US population increased by nearly 1% in the 12 months through July 2024, the biggest increase in 23 years (we discussed this in detail here).We expect large up-adjustments of employment, labor force, and related metrics. We expect to see a spike of the employment level for January that recaptures the entire adjustment for the three-year period (the BLS doesn’t revise the prior years with the population data, it does it all in one fell-swoop for the month of January).So next month, the up-adjustment of total employment from the January household survey, plus the inclusion of the previously announced downward revisions of nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey should re-establish the historic relationship between the employment level of the household survey and nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey.The household survey includes workers who are excluded from nonfarm payrolls reported by establishments, such as self-employed workers whose businesses are not incorporated, farm workers, and private household workers. So, total employment as depicted by the household survey is typically 6-8 million workers higher than nonfarm payrolls. But that difference has shrunk over the past two years and was just 2.1 million workers in December.Total employment, lacking the new migrants who are working, has been relatively flat since mid-2023, and grew only slowly in the prior year (red), while nonfarm payrolls have continued to rise at a solid pace (blue).We expect the population adjustment in February to create a spike in the red line for January; and we expect the inclusion of the benchmark revisions to lower the blue line somewhat; and the combination should re-establish the typical spread between the two:This is how the spread between the employment level in the household data and nonfarm payrolls has shrunk from 6-7 million in prior years to 2.1 million in December. We should see a very sharp reversal next month back toward or over the 5-million line:
Rates Jump After 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2007 -After two dismal coupon auctions to start the week, and the year, the final sale of Treasury paper in the funeral-shortened week took place shortly after 1pm when the Treasury sold $22BN in a 29 Year, 10 Month reopening, in what was the strongest auction so far in 2025.Stopping at a high yield of 4.913%, not only was this sharply above last month's 4.535%, but it was also the highest yield since August 2007. The silver lining: the auction stopped through the When issued 4.920% by 0.7bps, following last month's tail.The bid to cover was a solid 2.519, higher than last month's 2.390 and above the six auction average of 2.42.The internals were average, with Indirects awarded 66.6%, just barely above last month's 66.5%, and below the recent average of 67.4%; and with Directs awarded 20.7%, or above the December 19.1%, and just above the recent average, Dealers were left holding 12.7%, down from both the December 14.4% and the recent average of 14.6%. Overall, this was a mediocre auction, one which sent the 10Y yield spiking 4bps higher and once again approaching session highs which - as we now know - lead to an increasingly violent selloff in the stock market.
Strong job report bolsters odds of a Fed pause this month - Employers added 256,000 workers last month, beating Wall Street expectations and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged later this month. The Labor Department estimates the economy added 256,000 jobs in December, indicating a resilient economy and labor market. For the Federal Reserve, which was already signaling a slowdown in rate cuts, the reading could justify holding rates steady.
Treasury Yield Curve Steepens, as Long-Term Yields Coddle Up to 5% while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, Not Seeing Any Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.24% by Wolf Richter --Since the Fed’s 100 basis points in rate cuts, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 114 basis points, including by 9 basis points on Friday, to 4.77%, the highest since November 2023, upon news of a continued solid labor market in an economy that is growing substantially faster than the 15-year average growth rate, with inflation re-accelerating in the wings. And seeing these upside risks to inflation, the Fed is gingerly shifting back into its wait-and-see mode. Also on Friday, the 20-year yield rose to 5.04%; the Treasury Department sold 30-year bonds at auction with a yield of 4.91%, the highest auction yield since before the Financial Crisis; and a daily measure of mortgage rates rose to 7.24%. The Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR), which the Fed targets with its policy rates, has remained at 4.33% since the December rate cut, down by 100 basis points from the pre-cut levels (blue). I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this before – a 114-basis-point surge of the 10-year yield while the Fed cut by 100 basis points – but there’s a good reason for it. The reason for this phenomenon of the Fed cutting by 100 basis points while longer-term yields soar by over 100 basis points is the unusual situation the economy went through, and why the Fed cut rates. Normally the Fed cuts rates when it sees a recession on the horizon. And the bond market, also seeing a bad economy ahead, begins to send longer-term yields lower. But this time around, the Fed cut without a recession in sight, with a solid labor market and above average economic growth despite the highest policy rates in decades. It cut by 100 basis points because inflation cooled a lot from 9% in 2022. But it cooled a lot without a steep recession and big job losses, it cooled despite the economy growing at an above-average rate, which is another rarity. It caused major recession predictors that normally work well to produce false positives. The yield curve un-inverted last year and is steepening nicely. Short-term yields haven’t really budged since before the December rate cut, which had already been fully priced in at the time. Now there is no more rate cut priced in within the short-term window of those securities before they mature. For example, on Friday, the 3-month yield was 4.32%, same as in the days just before the December rate cut. But everything from the 2-year yield and longer has risen substantially since the rate cut. This caused the yield curve, which had gracefully un-inverted entirely just before Christmas, to steepen. The yield curve had inverted in July 2022, when the Fed’s big rate hikes pushed up short-term Treasury yields very fast, but longer-term yields rose more slowly, and so the short-term yields blew past them. The chart below shows the yield curve of Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum, from 1 month to 30 years, on three key dates: Gold: July 25, 2024, before the labor market data spiraled down (which was a false alarm). Blue: September 16, 2024, just before the Fed’s rate cuts started. Red: Friday, January 10, 2025. This yield curve is getting closer to looking healthy again, though it remains relatively flat and the steepening process still has some ways to go: The yield curve is still fairly flat and has some ways to go. With a spread of only 37 basis points between the 2-year yield (4.40%) and the 10-year yield (4.77%), the yield curve remains fairly flat. A spread of 100 to 200 basis points is kind of the normal range, which could happen either with the 2-year yield falling or the 10-year yield rising, or both. For example, if the 2-year yield remains at 4.40%, the 10-year yield would have to rise to 5.40% for the spread to widen to 100 basis points. The relationship between the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield is inverted when the 10-year yield is below the 2-year yield, and the spread is negative (below the black line). The 2022-2024 yield curve inversion broke all kinds of records in terms of length and depths. And the un-inversion is just at the beginning stages. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.96% in Friday’s trading, the highest since October 2023, and except for those few days in October 2023, the highest since September 2007. This is a “constant maturity yield” that is calculated from various trades based on a formula. But at the Treasury auction on Friday, the government sold 30-year bonds at a yield of 4.91%, the highest 30-year auction yield since at least 2007. The 30-year auctions in September, October, and November 2023 produced lower yields. The October 2023 auction marked the high with a yield of 4.84%, 7 basis points below Friday’s auction yield. The 30-year bonds are normally sold with a substantial term premium, as investors demand to be compensated for taking the risks that inflation and interest rates might rise over the 30-year period. Before the rate hikes started in March 2022, the 30-year yield was about 200 basis points above short-term yields. That’s the term premium. Currently, the term premium is about 60 basis points. So there is still a long ways to go.
CISA says ‘no indication’ other agencies impacted by Treasury hack - The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said Monday that there is “no indication” other federal agencies were impacted by the recent breach at the Treasury Department. The Treasury Department revealed last week that Chinese state-sponsored actors had hacked into the agency’s workstations in early December and accessed unclassified documents. The hackers obtained a key from a third-party software service provider, BeyondTrust, which they used to override security and gain access to Treasury workstations, the agency said in a letter to lawmakers. CISA said in a statement Monday that it is “working closely” with both the Treasury and BeyondTrust to “understand and mitigate the impacts” of the breach. “The security of federal systems and the data they protect is of critical importance to our national security,” the federal cyber watchdog added. “We are working aggressively to safeguard against any further impacts and will provide updates, as appropriate.” The Treasury Department has promised to provide an update to lawmakers in 30 days as required by law. However, the incoming chairs of the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee, both of which oversee the agency, asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday for a briefing on the incident by Jan. 10. “This breach of federal government information is extremely concerning. As you know, Treasury maintains some of the most highly sensitive information on U.S. persons throughout government, including tax information, business beneficial ownership, and suspicious activity reports,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) wrote. “This information must be vigilantly protected from theft or surveillance by our foreign adversaries, including the Chinese Communist Party (‘CCP’), who seek to harm the United States,” they added.
Trump comments deepen GOP disagreement over how to pass his agenda --President-elect Trump’s public back-and-forth over whether Republicans should pass his agenda in one or two massive packages is deepening the disagreements among lawmakers over how to tackle the ambitious undertaking. Trump over the weekend put a stake in the ground by calling for “one powerful bill” that would deal with energy, the border, taxes and potentially the debt limit. But he seemingly undercut himself less than a day later, saying in an interview Monday morning that he is open to a two-bill track, muddying the talks over how the party should proceed. The president-elect’s ambiguity is making the debate over strategy even messier on Capitol Hill, where top lawmakers are openly recognizing that the effort will be an uphill climb, no matter what path they choose. “There are going to be challenges in any way we do it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told The Hill. “This is hard stuff — really hard stuff, very heavy lifting. A lot of hard work ahead of us, but it’s got to get done.” For much of the past month, top Republicans have been split on how the process should play out. Republicans in both chambers intend to pass large pieces of Trump’s agenda through a process known as reconciliation, which bypasses the Senate filibuster and would require only GOP votes. Thune had proposed a two-bill plan, with an initial bill dealing with energy and border issues and a second one extending the Trump tax cuts and tackling other issues. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), meanwhile, was among the leading proponents of one “beautiful” bill, as Trump put it. Returning to the Capitol on Monday, top lawmakers in both chambers appeared to interpret Trump’s comments as backing their own side. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who sits on the Appropriations Committee, for example, said she expected clarity on one or two bills “this week,” noting that she still prefers a pair of measures, while Smith suggested that moving a single bill was a done deal. “You guys really like to stir up s—,” Smith told The Hill when asked about Trump’s interview with Hugh Hewitt, appearing to be miffed by questions surrounding Trump’s comments earlier in the day. “What he said is his preference is one bill, he just wants it passed,” Smith said, adding that he was not concerned with the possibility that Trump walked back the one-bill idea. “Absolutely not. This is s—. Absolutely not.” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), for his part, told reporters “the plan in the House has been one bill” and that the “assumption right now” is there will be a single bill. But he said lawmakers are in the process of “figuring out the most efficient and efficacious way” to move Trump’s agenda, citing disagreements in the Senate. He noted that he had spoken to the president-elect and Thune Monday morning. “The Senate has a little different opinion and perspective on reconciliation and what the wisest strategy is than the House, and that’s okay, that’s part of this process. As you all know, we build consensus around these ideas, but we are going to get this mission accomplished,” Johnson said. “I wouldn’t get too wound up about what the exact strategy is.” Talks centering on reconciliation have been going on dating back to the summer as Republicans salivated over the opportunity to move their favored policies without appeasing Democrats. Extending the tax cuts that were put into place in 2017, many of which expire at the end of the year, has long been atop the wishlist of members. However, dealing with the border has also been a top priority as it was one of the leading campaign issues for the party throughout the 2024 campaign. Trump is set to meet with a diverse array of House Republicans over the weekend, including members of the House Freedom Caucus, GOP lawmakers who want to do away with the state-and-local tax deduction cap, and others. Some Senate Republicans remain firmly in the two-bill camp, including a number of key Trump allies. Incoming Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has argued that a delay in passing border provisions would be harmful to national security and is unwise. “Delaying border security is a dangerous idea,” Graham said, adding that if he had his druthers, a border bill could be executed by mid-February. “If you can do it all in April, maybe it works, but I’m very leery.” Johnson over the weekend laid out an ambitious timeline for moving a single reconciliation bill, aiming to pass a budget resolution — which unlocks the obscure process — in early February, then passing the entire package the first week of April and sending it to the Senate. Notably, Florida is scheduled to hold special elections on April 1 to replace Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who is leaving the House to join the Trump administration, and former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who declined to take the oath of office this Congress after withdrawing his name from consideration for attorney general. Republicans are expected to retain those seats, earning a precious two votes for the high-stakes package. “That would put that bill on the president’s desk for signature by the end of April,” Johnson said in a “Sunday Morning Futures” interview, noting that the date could slip to May. “That would be fantastic.”
Trump wants to extend US debt ceiling, says he doesn't want to see a default (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he wants the U.S. Congress to extend the nation's debt ceiling, adding that he did not want to see the federal government default on its debt, which currently tops $36 trillion. "I just don't want to see a default. That's all I want," Trump told reporters at his Florida resort. The last congressional suspension of the debt ceiling, agreed to in 2023, expired at the end of the year, and since then the Treasury Department has been using extraordinary measures to avert default. Those measures could stave off a default for several more months, but Congress by the middle of this year likely would have to pass legislation addressing the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling has not achieved its nominal purpose -- limiting borrowing -- but has been the subject of periodic brinkmanship in Congress, spooking financial markets by flirting with the risk of a destabilizing default. Just last month, Trump torpedoed a bipartisan stopgap spending bill by insisting Congress raise the debt ceiling -- or simply eliminate it -- before outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden's term in office expires on Jan. 20. House Republicans did not have the votes to meet Trump's demands. For several weeks now, congressional Republicans and Trump have gone back and forth on whether to try to pass his legislative agenda in one massive bill or two smaller ones. Either way, Republicans would use a procedural tool called reconciliation to sidestep Democratic opposition in the Senate. No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise on Tuesday told reporters that his party's lawmakers "plan to move forward on a single reconciliation bill" that would aim to boost border security and clamp down on immigrants in the United States while also extending 2017 tax cuts and raising fossil fuel production. Scalise added, however, that if Trump prefers to split the legislation into two bills that also was a possibility.
House Republicans face massive debt problem in passing Trump agenda - House Republicans have a problem. They want to pass a massive agenda for President-elect Trump, preferably in his first 100 days of office. And they don’t want to add to the federal deficit. That looks impossible. Trump’s agenda includes an extension of his 2017 tax cuts, with possible plus-ups that include no taxes on tips and the possible elimination of a ceiling on state and local tax deductions. It also includes energy reform and changes to the border and rules on immigration. Republicans don’t agree on exactly what should be in the package. And they also don’t agree on whether it’s OK if this agenda adds to the deficit. Conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus are demanding the effort by budget neutral, arguing the country simply can’t afford to tack on additional deficits after years of fiscal red ink. They’d cut spending to pay for some of Trump’s priorities. But that could erode support from more moderate Republicans. Caught in the middle are Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team, who are scrambling to find the delicate balance that satisfies all camps for the sake of enacting Trump’s top campaign promises — a challenge made all the more pronounced by the GOP’s hairline House majority, which allows for virtually no defections. Heading into the debate, Johnson is already committing to certain elements of the process, like the use of a procedural gambit, known as reconciliation, to elude a Senate filibuster. But on the thorny question of budget neutrality, he isn’t committing one way or the other. “That is one of the things that we’re trying to ensure,” Johnson said Thursday. “[But] I can’t commit to any final proposition in the moment because we are making this a bottom-up, member-driven proposal, and the elements of the reconciliation package are coming together.” Some conservative deficit hawks are much less equivocal. They’re up in arms that the federal debt has now topped $36 trillion — a result of policies adopted by both parties over a course of decades — and warning GOP leaders that they’ll oppose any reconciliation package that adds to deficit spending. Asked if deficit neutrality is essential to win his support, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) didn’t skip a beat. “Yeah, or better. I want it to be deficit-reducing,” he said. “But a red line is actually — truly — deficit neutral.” Roy is pushing for some tax hikes as part of the effort to achieve budget neutrality, and he’s castigating those fellow Republicans who continue to maintain that all tax cuts pay for themselves by increasing economic activity in the private sector. Such ultimatums are posing a headache for Johnson and other GOP leaders, who are hoping to adopt a mammoth package of Trump’s priorities before the summer, to include an expansion of domestic fossil fuel production, tougher border security, funds to deport undocumented immigrants and an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the year. The tax portion alone is projected to cost $4 trillion. Democrats are expected to oppose the effort overwhelmingly, leaving Johnson with the challenge of uniting his fractious conference behind it.
Donald Trump seeks to get GOP in line ahead of second term - President-elect Trump is looking to get Republicans in line, hosting meetings with House and Senate lawmakers this week to avoid any surprises that could stall his agenda. Trump met earlier this week with Senate Republicans in Washington and he is spending the weekend at Mar-a-Lago hosting several factions of the House GOP in an effort to quell any dissent over a host of complicated and onerous legislative matters. The effort has Trump leaning into his undisputed grip on the party as he pushes toward ambitious, sweeping plans in his first few months in office. He has pledged mass deportations, regulation cuts and a legislative package that includes border security funding, tax policy and investments in energy production. Those plans will require constant communication and organizing to make sure various segments of the GOP are on board, especially in the House where Republicans can only afford a few defections on any party-line vote. Trump and his allies have signaled there will be a carrot and stick approach, even as he and his advisers seek to remind Republicans that a primary challenge could be looming if they fall out of line. “He is not afraid to express his opinion publicly and clearly. That’s what he’s done on policy and that’s what he intends to get done as the president, and he expects the majorities in congress to help him with that,” James Blair, who will serve as a deputy chief of staff in Trump’s White House, said in a recent Fox News interview. “He is the one with the mandate, and the will of the people is behind him, and I think he will use that to his benefit to make sure the policies he ran on get enacted,” Blair added. Trump himself has spoken about his relative inexperience and lack of familiarity with the people and workings of Washington upon arriving for his first term in office, and Trump struggled to pass health care reform or get an infrastructure package off the ground in his first few months in office in 2017. But things appear to be different this time around, with Trump getting more of a head start before he gets to the White House instead of the mad scramble after he won the 2016 election. Trump met Wednesday night with Senate Republicans in Washington. The two-hour discussion focused largely on whether to split Trump’s agenda into two separate reconciliation bills, though the president-elect has expressed a preference for wrapping border security and tax policy into one massive piece of legislation. The president-elect on Thursday night hosted Republican governors at Mar-a-Lago. The meeting mostly served as a way for Trump and the governors to present a united front before he takes office – Trump described it as “a love fest” – though state leaders are likely to be key in Trump’s plans to carry out mass deportations. Trump’s weekend will then be filled with meetings with dozens of House Republicans at Mar-a-Lago. He met separately with various Republican groups, including the House Freedom Caucus on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday, he will sit down with GOP committee leaders and then members with a particular interest in changing the state and local tax deduction (SALT) in upcoming tax policy negotiations. The GOP can only afford a few defections on reconciliation bills in order to pass them with a simple majority, and Trump’s ability to exert pressure over lawmakers to get in line could be the difference between passage and failure.
Chip Roy joins House Freedom Caucus for Donald Trump meeting at Mar-a-Lago - Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who President-elect Trump threatened to primary last month, joined the House Freedom Caucus meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Friday. Rep. Eli Craine (R-Ariz.) shared a photograph of members inside Mar-a-Lago, and the group included Roy, as well as Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), and over a dozen other members. “Great night at Mar-a-Lago with the House Freedom Caucus. We joined President Trump and Elon Musk for dinner to talk about the path forward,” Crane said. Trump encouraged Texas Republicans to consider challenging Roy in the primary because he said the Congress got in the way of a push to raise the debt ceiling as part of government funding talks in December. Trump called him “very unpopular” and accused him of wanting “cheap publicity.”Ahead of Friday’s Mar-a-Lago meeting, members told The Hill that they were going to make the case to Trump for their preferred policies and strategy. They planned to ask Trump how they can help achieve his legislation goals while also not spending too much.The meeting comes as Republicans are trying to figure out how to pass Trump’s agenda on the border, energy, tax cuts and other issues, and whether that would require two bills or one.The Freedom caucus has endorsed a two-bill strategy while Trump has said his preference is “one big, beautiful bill.”During the meeting on Friday, members doubled down on the need for two bills, to Punchbowl reported.The Trump transition did not respond to The Hill about what was discussed in the meeting.
US transfers 11 prisoners out of Guantanamo Bay --The U.S. on Monday transferred 11 prisoners out of Guantánamo Bay, the latest batch of inmates to leave the infamous facility in Cuba that once held around 780 detainees.The 11 prisoners were Yemeni nationals, according to the Defense Department, and their transfer to the country of Oman brings the detainee population at the site down to just 15 people.President Biden has continued the mission of the Obama administration to transfer prisoners out and wind down operations at the site that has become infamous for accusations of torture and abuse as the U.S. carried out the war on terrorism.The Pentagon also announced a detainee transfer to Tunisia in December, but it’s unclear if Biden intends to bring down the population even further before he leaves office. Several inmates are likely to remain for now, including the alleged 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, known as KSM, and four of his conspirators. Including KSM, four of the five are set to stand trial beginning this week.The U.S. announced plea deals for KSM and three conspirators last year, but Defense SecretaryLloyd Austin revoked them. Last week, a military appeals court ruled that Austin did not have the authority to revoke the plea deals, which included life sentences for KSM and the three conspirators.The transfers this week were authorized for one detainee, Tawfiq Nasir Awad Al-Bihani, by an executive order signed by then-President Obama in 2009. The others were authorized by a review board.“Although different processes, each of the 10 Yemeni detainees underwent a thorough, interagency review by career professionals who unanimously determined all detainees as transfer eligible consistent with the national security interests of the United States,” the Pentagon said in a release.One of the detainees transferred was Sharqawi Al Hajj, 51, who spent 21 years at Guantánamo Bay despite never being charged with a crime and who was hospitalized after undergoing a hunger strike in 2017.Hajj was represented by the Center for Constitutional Rights. Pardiss Kebriaei, a senior staff attorney at the legal foundation, said his thoughts were with Hajj as he “transitions to the free world after almost 23 years in captivity.”
Biden Mulls Prisoner Swap With Taliban Involving 'Last Afghan In Guantanamo' -Less than two weeks to go in his lame-duck presidency before Trump takes office, and President Biden is pursuing the controversial move of emptying out Gitmo further. On Monday the Pentagon confirmed it released 11 Yemeni detainees with suspected ties to al Qaeda from the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba, after which they are set to begin new lives in Oman, as we detailed earlier. This hasshrunk the population of the facility to 15 men.None of the detainees have ever been charged with a crime, despite having been in the high-secure military facility for a couple decades or more. The Biden administration has long sought to move forward Obama's stated goal of seeking to permanently shutdown the notorious facility where torture has been alleged and documented.On Tuesday another major potential released has been revealed: the White House is now negotiating with the Taliban which could end in the release of a high-profile prisoner long alleged to have been a close Osama bin Laden associate. Muhammad Rahim al Afghani has long been deemed "the Last Afghan in Guantanamo".The Wall Street Journal reports that the Democratic administration "has been discussing a deal with the Taliban since at least July, told the group on Nov. 14 that the U.S. would release Muhammad Rahim al Afghani, who the U.S. government alleges was a senior al Qaeda aide, if the Afghan rulers released George Glezmann, Ryan Corbett and Mahmoud Habibi, American citizens seized in Afghanistan in 2022."Rahim, if the swap goes through, could be freed alongside two others prisoners the Taliban is seeking in exchange for Americans Glezmann and Corbett. However, things are already complicated as the Taliban denies that it is holding Habibi.The potential deal has apparently been in the works for several weeks at this point, given national security adviser Jake Sullivan briefed House Foreign Affairs Committee members in a classified session on Dec.17. The WSJ has cited him as saying that no decision has yet been made. If Biden goes through with it, he'll be hammered by Trump and Republicans, and it will also revive criticisms of the botched Afghan withdrawal which ended in the deaths of many American troops as well as Afghan civilians: The Taliban’s offer poses a dilemma for Biden. He has prided himself on securing the release of American hostages around the world, bringing home more than 70 people over the past four years. But handing over Rahim, long seen by the U.S. government as a high-profile prisoner, and potentially other Afghan prisoners held in U.S. custody might spark criticism.
Biden Administration Plans More Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports -The Biden Administration is set to slap more sanctions on Russia’s oil exports by targeting tankers hauling Russian crude and products, sources familiar with the outgoing administration’s plans have told Reuters.“It is going to be a big package,” one of Reuters’s sources said.The current Administration plans to target vessels that carry Russian oil above the $60 per barrel price cap that Western allies have imposed on Russian crude and petroleum products. The scope of the upcoming sanctions is expected to include persons involved in networks that trade Russia’s oil above the G7 price cap, according to the sources.The price cap mechanism set by the G7 and the EU says that Russian crude shipments to third countries can use Western insurance and financing if cargoes are sold at or below the $60-a-barrel ceiling. The measure took effect at the end of 2022 when the EU imposed an embargo on imports of Russian crude oil.The Biden Administration is looking to stifle Russia’s oil revenues and support Ukraine more ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has said that the U.S. cost of supporting Ukraine is too high.The new U.S. sanctions would add to the already tightened measures against Russian oil exports that the UK and the European Union have recently announced. European countries have been ramping up sanctions pressure on Russia as they look to reduce Vladimir Putin’s oil revenues that fund the war in Ukraine.The UK and the European Union announced in the middle of December a raft of new sanctions that target Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers enabling oil trade.The UK went further, sanctioning two trading firms, which it described as “key lynchpins in enabling the trading of Putin’s precious oil.”The UK’s latest sanctions came a day after the EU adopted the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, which targets 52 new vesselsfrom Russia’s shadow fleet, increasing the total number of such listings to 79. These non-EU vessels are subject to a port access ban and a ban on the provision of services.
Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US ATACMS Into Russia - On Saturday, Russia said that Ukrainian forces fired more US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) into Russian territory and vowed there would be a response.The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired eight ATACMS into the Belgorod Oblast and that they were all downed by Russian air defenses. “The crews of the S-400 and Pantsir-SM air defense systems countered the attack and shot down all the ATACMS missiles,” the ministry said.The ministry added that the Ukrainian attack, “which is supported by Western curators, will be met with retaliation.”President Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russian territory despite Moscow making clear the step would risk nuclear escalation. Since then, Ukraine has launched several rounds of attacks on Russian territory using the missiles, which require intelligence from NATO countries to be fired.In response to the first round of ATACMS and Storm Shadows attacks, Russia test-fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine known as the Oreshnik. In December, after Ukraine fired more ATACMS into Russian territory, Russia launched a heavy bombardment of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which Moscow said was a response to the US missiles.Over the weekend, Ukraine also launched dozens of drones into Russia and started a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian troops first entered Kursk in August, an invasion of Russia that was launched with US weapons and Western intelligence support.
Biden Administration Announces $500 Million Weapons Package for Ukraine - On Thursday, the Biden administration announced what is believed to be its last military aid package for Ukraine, which is worth $500 million and includes support equipment for F-16 fighter jets, air defense munitions, and other equipment.Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the new military aid at a meeting in Ramstein, Germany, a gathering known as the Ukraine Defense Contact group, which he has overseen since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago.While Austin is leaving behind a raging proxy war and there’s no clear path to a Ukrainian military victory, he told the group that he was proud of his work.“I am incredibly proud of what we’ve achieved together. Over the past few years, we have moved heaven and earth to get Ukraine the security assistance that it needs,” Austin said.“And together, we’ve committed more than $122 billion worth of security assistance and expanded factories around the world,” the secretary added.Austin urged that military aid to Ukraine must continue amid uncertainty about how the incoming Trump administration will approach the conflict. “So we must not let up. That’s why I am announcing today another Presidential Drawdown Authority package, valued at approximately $500 million,” he said.The new military aid is being provided in the form of the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows weapons to be shipped straight from US military stockpiles. According to a Pentagon press release, the arms package includes:
- AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M missiles for air defense
- Air-to-ground munitions
- Support equipment for F-16s
- Armored bridging systems
- Secure communications equipment
- Small arms and ammunition
- Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation
The Pentagon also released a fact sheet that said the Biden administration had committed a total of $65.9 billion in military equipment to Ukraine. Including other types of aid and Pentagon spending on troop deployments to Europe and the replenishment of US stockpiles, the Biden administration has spent at least $186 billion on the proxy war.
US Completes $9 Billion Upgrade of B61 Gravity Nuclear Bombs - The US has completed a $9 billion plan to upgrade its B61 nuclear air-dropped gravity bombs to the latest variant, known as the B61-12, The Defense Post reported on Wednesday.Under NATO’s nuclear sharing program, the US has B61 bombs deployed to US Air Force bases as well as bases in European NATO countries. Under NATO’s nuclear sharing program, B61 bombs are deployed in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.POLITICO reported back in 2022 that the US had accelerated the upgrade of the B61 bombs in Europe amid heightened tensions with Russia.The Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) said in a press release on Tuesday that the “B61-12 Life Extension Program” was completed on December 18, 2024. The NNSA said the upgrade “extends the service life by at least 20 years through refurbishing, reusing, or replacing all the bomb’s nuclear and non-nuclear components.”The B61-12 is said to be lighter and more accurate than the previous variant. “The B61 family of bombs has over 50 years of service, making it the oldest and most versatile weapon in the enduring US nuclear weapon stockpile,” the NNSA said.The upgrade of the B61 is part of the US’s modernization of its nuclear triad, a project that has a huge price tag. According to Arms Control Today, the NNSA will spend an estimated $650 billion over the next 25 years, and modernizing all of the US’s nuclear forces will cost a total of $1.5 trillion.The US is already in the process of developing its next B61 variant, the B61-13. “With production of the B61-12 LEP now complete, NNSA will transition to producing the B61-13 bomb, which will leverage the current, established production capabilities supporting the B61-12,” the NNSA said.
Report: Trump Team Undecided on How To End Ukraine War - Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration are undecided on how they bring an end to the proxy war in Ukraine, and US support for Ukraine is expected to continue after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Financial Times reported Thursday, citing two European officials.The report noted that Trump’s special envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellog, said in an interview this week that the goal is to bring the war to a close within the first 100 days of the administration. “I would like to set a goal on a personal and professional level — I would set it at 100 days and move all the way back,” Kellog said. “And figure a way we can do this in the near term, to make sure the solution is solid and it’s sustainable and that this war ends so that we stop the carnage.”Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have made clear that they’re both ready to talk with one another. At a press conference on Tuesday,Trump said he could understand one of Russia’s main gripes: NATO expansion and the promise of bringing Ukraine into the alliance.“You know, a big part of the problem was Russia for many, many years, long before Putin said you could never have NATO involved with Ukraine. Now they’ve said … that’s been like written in stone,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago.“Somewhere along the line, Biden said no, they should be able to join NATO. Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I could understand their feeling about that,” he added. But it remains unclear what sort of proposals the Trump administration will make to Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hasdismissed some ideas reportedly being discussed by the Trump team, which include sending European troops to Ukraine to oversee a ceasefire and Ukraine pledging not to join NATO for at least 20 years.
Trump seeks Putin meeting as Biden announces aid package to Kyiv - President-elect Donald Trump floated the possibility of a meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the "bloody mess" in Ukraine, while the outgoing administration of Joe Biden pushed through its final aid package for battered ally Kyiv. "He wants to meet and … we're setting it up," Trump said during a Thursday press conference, noting he would rather hold off on the encounter until after his presidential inauguration on Jan. 20. It has yet to be decided whether the meeting will take place as a summit or state visit. "President Putin wants to meet. He's said that even publicly. And we have to get that war over with, that's a bloody mess," Trump said. Trump has historically enjoyed a more cordial relationship with Putin than many Western heads of state, who have increasingly distanced themselves from the Kremlin since Moscow's February 2022 invasion of its Eastern European neighbor. The strength of Trump's relationship with Putin came under the scrutiny of a nearly two-year special counsel investigation into claims of Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Trump, who clinched victory in the vote, denied claims that he had fallen under the Kremlin's influence. Putin is ready to meet Trump without reservations, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday in Google-translatedcomments reported by Russian state news agency Tass. He added that the specifics of such a rapprochement had yet to be agreed and will likely pend Trump's inauguration, noting that Russia welcomes the president-elect's intentions to fall back on dialogue.Western-led efforts to mediate a peace arrangement, along with the respective frameworks of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and influential Chinese mediator Xi Jinping, have yet to be mutually accepted or bear fruit. Moscow and Kyiv have so far set down mutually contradictory red lines, refusing to join the negotiations table unless they are allowed to retain annexed territories or until Russian troops have departed Ukrainian land, respectively.Trump's openness to liaise with Putin marks a departure from the relationship guided over the past two years by the administration of Biden, a staunch supporter of Ukraine throughout the conflict. Biden's government has committed roughly $65.9 billion in security assistance to Kyiv since the start of the invasion as of Jan. 8. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $500 million aid tranche for Ukraine, a mere 10 days before Biden's scheduled exit from the White House.. Questions linger over the extent of U.S. involvement in the devastating war in Ukraine, which enters its third year next month and has indirectly propelled spikes in energy prices and global inflation because of Western sanctions on Russian resources. Trump has previously touted he could resolve the devastating war in Ukraine in an ambitious "24 hours" deadline, without disclosing his methods or presenting a concrete ceasefire proposal. He has also vehemently criticized America's expenses to shore up Ukraine's defenses, questioned the U.S.' ongoing participation in the NATO military alliance, and once dubbed Zelenskyy as "maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived," in an allusion that aid delivered to Ukraine was the result of the Ukrainian leader's political prowess, more than his country's actual needs. Altogether, Trump's comments and fledgling indications of trade nationalism have raised broader concerns that potential White House pressures or the withdrawal of U.S. military support could cajole a resource-dependent Kyiv into a diplomatic denouement involving territorial concessions to its invader. Ukraine expects a Trump-Zelenskyy meeting to take place shortly after the U.S. president-elect takes office, ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said Friday, according to Reuters.
Trump says meeting being set up with Putin -- US President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is being set up. "He (Putin) wants to meet, and we're setting it up," Trump told reporters ahead of a meeting with Republican governors at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. He did not provide further details about the possible meeting. "President Putin wants to meet. He said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over. That's a bloody mess," he said, referring to the Russia-Ukraine war. Turning to Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said they have had "a lot of" communication. "We have a lot of meetings set up with a lot of people. Some have come, but I'd rather wait till after the 20th," he said, referring to Jan. 20, the date of his inauguration.
Trump Says He Is Setting Up a Meeting With Putin - President-elect Donald Trump said he is working on setting up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In response, Moscow said Putin is willing to sit down with Trump without preconditions.On Friday, Trump was asked about potentially meeting Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping. “To be determined,” the President-elect said, referring to a summit with Xi. He added, “But President Putin wants to meet. He’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he did not have any details about a meeting between Trump and Putin to share, but indicated there may be some diplomatic progress. “We see that Mr. Trump also declares his readiness to solve problems through dialogue. We welcome this,” he explained. “Apparently, after Mr. Trump enters the Oval Office, there will be some movement.”Peskov added, “no conditions are required” to begin talks. President Joe Biden and President Zelensky have maintained that Russian troops must withdraw from Ukraine to end the war. The preconditions for negotiations has resulted in no diplomacy between Washington, Kiev, and Moscow.On the campaign trail, Trump often lamented the massive loss of life from the war in Ukraine and pledged to bring the conflict to a close on his first day in office. However, since winning the election in November, Trump has tapped a number of war hawks to staff his new administration.The incoming administration includes retired Gen. Keith Kellogg as envoy to the war in Ukraine. Kellogg has been critical of the Biden administration for not providing Kiev with enough support.Any deal to end the war in Ukraine will likely require the Trump team to back away from the hardline negotiation positions of the Biden administration. The current White House is refusing to take NATO membership for Kiev off the table or end weapon shipments to Ukraine. Additionally, Biden and Zelensky demanded Putin relinquish all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the Donbas.From Moscow’s perspective, it does not plan to give back the five Ukrainian territories that it annexed or allow Kiev to join NATO.While Trump has not detailed his plan for Ukraine, statements from members of his incoming administration suggest there will still be significant gaps between Washington and Moscow. The Financial Timesreported that the Trump admin will continue the arms shipments to Ukraine, believing it establishes “peace through strength.”
Ukraine doubles down on Kursk offensive in strategic gamble -- Ukraine is leaning into its efforts to hold onto the Russian territory of Kursk amid intense pressure from Russian and North Korean forces to take it back, apparently gambling that the region could be a valuable card in potential negotiations with Moscow. After weeks of Russian and North Korean advances in Kursk, Ukraine launched a minor offensive on Sunday to push forces back and retain a grip on the roughly 300 square miles Ukrainian troops still hold. With less than two weeks before President-elect Trump takes office with a promise to negotiate an end to the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be doubling down on Kursk as both a strategic necessity and a bargaining chip, despite lingering questions about the operation’s tactical value. Zelensky called the Kursk operation, which was launched in a surprise attack in August and marked the first time Russia was invaded by a foreign ally since World War II, “one of our biggest wins, not just last year but throughout the war.” “Russia had to pull almost 60,000 troops off the Ukrainian front to deal with it. As of this Monday, it’s been five months since our troops have maintained a buffer zone on Russian territory,” he wrote Thursday on the social platform X. Ukraine likely has the ability to hold onto that territory for the foreseeable future, but troops face a stark challenge against the some 12,000 North Korean troops allied with Russian forces in Kursk. Serhiy Grabsky, a reserve colonel in Ukraine’s military, said the new push in Kursk was more about military strategy than negotiations and was focused on distracting Russia. “The main idea of this in simple words: to keep Russian forces busy,” he said. Grabsky said it was also about a message to Trump. “This action … shows Western alliances that Ukraine did not lose battle capabilities, that Ukraine can and will resist with American support or without it.” Since Russia began taking back territory over the fall, Ukraine has lost about 40 percent of the ground it once held in Kursk. But a senior defense official said that despite the pressure, Ukraine “continues to hold out against an extraordinary Russian set of assaults” in Kursk and on the eastern front lines of Ukraine.
The Race Is On Between West And East For Control In Syria - Following the surprise removal on 8 December of President Bashar al-Assad after 53 years of his family’s rule in Syria, long-dormant plans in the U.S. are being dusted off about what will happen next there and who will control it. The plans were drawn up in anticipation that Bashar al-Assad would fall soon after July 2011, a senior energy security source who worked closely with the administration of then-U.S. President Barack Obama exclusively told OilPrice.com.“At that point [when defectors from the Syrian army formed the Free Syrian Army and began an armed conflict across the country], Washington was certain that he [al-Assad] would fall in a matter of weeks, so they expedited the existing planning for that contingency, as did Russia and Iran, and the European Union too,” he said. “The plans for each included options to support its [Syria’s] production of oil and gas as this was a key source of its revenues,” he said.“These were to run in parallel with, and support, whichever group finally came out on top after he [al-Assad] was removed from the picture,” he added. At the time of the outbreak of hostilities in 2011, Syria had been producing around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from proved reserves of 2.5 billion barrels. For a long period before that – prior to the recovery rate dropping off due to a lack of enhanced oil recovery techniques being employed at the major fields -- it had been producing nearly 600,000 bpd. Europe imported at least US$3 billion worth of oil per year from Syria up to the beginning of 2011, and many European refineries were configured to process the heavy, sour ‘Souedie’ crude oil that makes up much of Syria’s output, with the remainder being the sweet and lighter ‘Syrian Light’ grade.Most of this – some 150,000-bpd combined – went to Germany, Italy, and France, from one of Syria’s three Mediterranean export terminals: Banias, Tartus, and Latakia. As an adjunct to this, a multitude of international oil companies were operating in Syria’s energy sector, including the UK’s Shell, Petrofac and Gulfsands Petroleum, France’s then-Total, the China National Petroleum Corporation, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp, Canada’s Suncor Energy, and Russia’s Tatneft and Stroytransgaz. Syria’s gas sector was at least as vibrant as its oil one, with proved reserves of 8.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, and around 316 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of dry natural gas produced.After the fighting began in earnest in 2011, the first of the three major options to support the Syrian energy and financial infrastructure for whichever group took over was from the U.S.This involved moving gas from Qatar through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, then through Syria whereupon it could be moved into Turkey and sold on in the rest of Europe, if resources allowed. The European option involved United Nations peace-keeping monitors in Syria, bringing in hydrocarbons industry experts from the UN Security Council member states, and letting the Qatar-Syria-Turkey, and Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey, pipelines develop organically over time. The Russian option focused on resuscitating the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, moving Iranian, and later Iraqi and Syrian gas into Europe. However, as al-Assad survived the initial phases of the uprising – crucially supported by the Russian military -- he went with the Russian energy and financial option focusing long term on the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plans shorter-term on the build-out of Syria’s oil and gas infrastructure.In 2017 this was formalised in a memorandum of understanding that encompassed 40 energy projects, plus the full reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Aleppo thermal plant, the installation of the Deir Ezzor power plant, and the expansion of capacity of the Mharda and Tishreen plants, with a view to re-energising Syria’s power grid and restoring the main control centre for the grid back to Damascus.Consequently, it was little surprise that early on after al-Assad fled to Moscow a month ago, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed that his country had been in direct contact with the radical Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), about the future of its energy projects, and of its key military bases across Syria as well. These comprise the naval base at Tartus – Russia’s only Mediterranean port, its Khmeimim air force base near Latakia, and its huge listening station nearby. Aside from these prized assets,there are three other reasons why Syria remains so crucial to Russia’s core geopolitical strategy in the Middle East and globally, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order.
US Issues License Allowing Transactions With Syria's HTS-Led Government - HTS is still designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization since it's an offshoot of al-Qaeda -The US Treasury Department on Monday issued a six-month general license to waive some sanctions on Syria to allow transactions with the new Syrian government that’s led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda that’s designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization.For years, the US has imposed crippling economic sanctions on Syria that were designed to prevent the country’s reconstruction. The sanctions, which have a devastating impact on Syrian civilians, were part of the regime change effort against former President Bashar al-Assad, which ultimately succeeded when he fled the country on December 8 due to an HTS offensive.In a press release on the general license, the Treasury Department acknowledged the scope of US sanctions on Syria, saying the country was one of the “most comprehensively sanctioned jurisdictions.” The license does not lift any sanctions but allows certain transactions with the HTS-led government.According to the document, the general license allows “transactions in support of the sale, supply, storage, or donation of energy, including petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity, to or within Syria” and “transactions that are ordinarily incident and necessary to processing the transfer of noncommercial, personal remittances to Syria, including through the Central Bank of Syria.”The Treasury Department said the purpose of the license is to ensure US sanctions “do not impede activities to meet basic human needs, including the provision of public services or humanitarian assistance,” an acknowledgment that US sanctions have been impeding humanitarian goods.The US has also lifted a $10 million bounty that it had on the head of HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who has been going by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa. The US sent Barbara Leaf, a high-level State Department official, to hold a meeting with Julani in Damascus, which she described as “good” and “productive.”
Video Surfaces of Syria's New Justice Minister Overseeing Executions of Women in 2015 - Videos have surfaced online of Syria’s new justice minister, Shadi al-Waisi, overseeing the execution of two women in 2015 over charges of adultery and prostitution. Al-Waisi is part of the new Syrian government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which took power after ousting former President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. Verify-Sy, a fact-checking organization, confirmed that it was al-Waisi inthe two videos that emerged online. In one video, al-Waisi is seen reading a ruling that the woman was found guilty of “corruption and prostitution” and sentencing her to death. (Screenshot of the video where al-Waisi issues the death sentence)In the other video, al-Waisi appears to be carrying a gun and tells a woman to sit down as she’s pleading for her life. Once she moves down, another armed man shoots her in the head.At the time, al-Waisi was working as a “judge” enforcing Sharia law in areas of Syria’s northwest Idlib province that were under the control of the al-Nusra Front, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria that merged with other Islamist groups in 2017 to form HTS.HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who has been going by his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, have tried to present themselves as moderates since taking over Syria despite their al-Qaeda past.An HTS official speaking to Verify-Sy downplayed the video, insisting the group has “moved beyond” such practices. “The content of the video presented to us documents the enforcement of the law at a specific time and place, where the procedures were carried out in accordance with the laws in effect at that time and as part of a procedural agreement. However, we would like to point out that this process reflects a stage we have moved beyond,” the official said.The US supported the HTS takeover of Syria even though the group still being listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department. US officials also seem to be buying the rebranding campaign despite HTS’s brutal history and its appointment of foreign jihadists in senior military positions.
Biden Administration Will Not Revoke HTS Terror Designation - The Washington Post reported Wednesday that President Biden will not revoke the terror designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the al-Qaeda offshoot that took power in Damascus following the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That means Syria’s de facto leader and founder of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who has been going by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, will still be considered a terrorist by the US government for the remainder of the Biden administration. Despite Julani being labeled a terrorist due to his al-Qaeda history, high-level US government officials met with him recently and removed a $10 million bounty that was on his head. The Biden administration has also issued a general license waiving sanctions to allow some transactions with the HTS-led government. US officials told the Post that the decision about the terrorist designation will now be up to the Trump administration. They said HTS must show that it has really broken from al-Qaeda for the designation to be lifted, though HTS’s history did not stop the US from supporting the HTS takeover of Syria.Julani has said there will likely be no elections in Syria for four years, and the new “transitional government” is made up of HTS officials andforeign jihadists who have been appointed to senior positions in the military. Videos have emerged online of Syria’s new justice minister, Shadi al-Waisi, overseeing the execution of two women in 2015 over charges of adultery and prostitution. Al-Waisi oversaw the executions in areas of Idlib that were under the control of the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate founded by Julani that merged with other Islamist groups in 2017 to form HTS.
US, Israel Cheer as Lebanon Elects Joseph Aoun as President - Lebanon’s parliament finally ended the multi-year situation in which the country had no president, electing Army chief Joseph Aoun to the position. He is the first president since October 2022, when former President Michel Aoun’s (who is unrelated to Joseph Aoun) term expired. Lebanon’s government is very divided, making it difficult for a candidate to be successfully elected. Aoun’s election happened only after former Interior Minister Suleiman Frangieh, the main alternative candidate, withdrew and endorsed Aoun.Electing a president requires a two-thirds majority of parliament, which was met after Frangieh’s endorsement gave Aoun the support of Hezbollah and Amal Movements. Many media reports see Aoun’s election as a sign of Hezbollah’s weakness, despite most Hezbollah MPs supporting him.Aoun had been the candidate of choice for many in the international community. The US in particular told Lebanon that Saudi Arabia was prepared to give Lebanon hundreds of millions of dollars in post-war reconstruction if Aoun were elected. The US Embassy was quick to issue a statement praising Aoun’s election, and Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar also welcomed the move as a step toward stability in Lebanon. Israel is still occupying much of southern Lebanon, and there is no sign of them withdrawing within the 60-day deadline the ceasefire prescribes. France also congratulated Aounon his win.Aoun’s actual political positions aren’t really know, but after the election he did promise to support an independent judiciary. In practice, however, Lebanon is a parliamentary system, so the president’s power is fairly limited, beyond nominating prime ministers. Prime Minister Najib Mikati has been “acting prime minister” in recent years because there was no president to nominate him.Lebanon’s president serves a term of six years. The president can only hold non-consecutive terms, after another candidate holds the position for six years. By convention, Lebanon appoints a Maronite Christian to the presidency, although this is not a strict constitutional requirement. The sectarian power-sharing convention gives Maronites the presidency, Sunnis the premiership, and Shi’ites the speaker of parliament.Lebanon’s constitution was amended in 1998 to allow military commanders to serve as president. Since that amendment, all four of Lebanon’s presidents have been military commanders.
Sanders Pledges to 'Do All That I Can' to Block Biden's $8 Billion Arms Sale to Israel -U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders vowed late Monday to do everything in his power to block the Biden administration's newly proposed $8 billion arms sale to the far-right Israeli government, which has used American weaponry to commit atrocities across the Gaza Strip over the past 15 months."The U.S. must not send more bombs to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's extremist government, which has already killed 45,000 people; destroyed Gaza's housing, healthcare, and educational systems; and caused starvation by blocking humanitarian aid," Sanders (I-Vt.) wrote on social media. "I will do all that I can to block these arms sales." The State Department formally notified Congress of the proposed sale late last week, and reports indicate that the latest weapons package Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), missiles for attack helicopters, and 500-pound bombs. The new sale adds to the tens of billions of dollars worth of arms and other military assistance the U.S. has provided Israel since its large-scale assault on the Gaza Strip began in the wake of the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack. In at least two cases, the Biden administration bypassed Congress to deliver the weapons to Israel.Sanders is one of the few members of Congress who has vocally opposed continued offensive weapons sales to Israel and attempted to block the transactions, arguing that they violate U.S. laws prohibiting arms transfers to countries blocking American humanitarian aid. Late last year, the U.S. Senate rejected a Sanders-led effort to thwart a sale of JDAMs, tank rounds, and other weaponry.The newly proposed $8 billion weapons sale comes just days before U.S. President Joe Biden is set to leave office, which Haaretz correspondent Ben Samuels called "a fitting end to four years of policy that seemed to please no one and antagonize anyone unhappy with the status quo.""The proposed arms sale is yet another wrinkle after a series of missed opportunities to press the Israeli government as hostages remain captive and Gaza's humanitarian crisis worsens," Samuels wrote.In a statement on Monday, a top United Nations humanitarian relief official said that "despite our determination to deliver food, water, and medicine to survivors, our efforts to save lives are at breaking point."Tom Fletcher, the U.N.'s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, pointed to several recent Israeli attacks on aid operations in Gaza, including a strike "at a known food distribution point where a partner of the World Food Program was operating" and an attack on a clearly marked WFP convoy."These incidents are part of a dangerous pattern of sabotage and deliberate disruption," said Fletcher. "Israeli forces are unable or unwilling to ensure the safety of our convoys. Statements by Israeli authorities vilify our aid workers even as the military attacks them. Community volunteers who accompany our convoys are being targeted."
Blinken Says He's Not Worried That the World May Think He's Backed a Genocide - Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview published by The New York Times on Saturday that he’s not worried that the world might view him as a genocide supporter for his role in supporting Israel’s actions in Gaza.Blinken was asked, “Do you, Secretary Blinken, worry that perhaps you have been presiding over what the world will see as a genocide?”He replied, “No. It’s not, first of all. Second, as to how the world sees it, I can’t fully answer to that. But everyone has to look at the facts and draw their own conclusions from those facts.”The interview comes after several human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, have concluded Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a conclusion rejected by Blinken’s state department.Blinken claimed to be concerned about the massive civilian casualties in Gaza but also defended US support for the slaughter, which he called Israel’s “just defense” from the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. “We have been, and we remain fundamentally committed to Israel’s defense,” he said.The secretary of state also defended the Biden administration’s actions related to the proxy war in Ukraine, which he framed as a success even though there’s no path to a Ukrainian military victory and hundreds of thousands have died in the conflict. When asked if it was time to end the war, Blinken said the decision was up to Ukraine. “These are decisions for Ukrainians to make. They have to decide where their future is and how they want to get there,” he said.However, in the early days of the war, the US and its allies discouraged Ukraine from signing a peace deal with Russia, and now Kyiv stands to lose much more territory than if it reached an agreement in 2022.
Denying Responsibility: How US Avoids Accountability for Gaza’s Famine Crisis - Israel is now signaling that it intends to reduce the already small slither of humanitarian aid that it allows to pass into the Gaza Strip, a decision that could be implemented upon the inauguration of incoming American President Donald Trump. Yet, the US still maintains that their Israeli allies are upholding international law and allowing in sufficient aid.Back in February of 2024, Amnesty International released a statement in which it accused Israel of violating the International Court of Justice’s ruling to prevent genocide, due to its refusal to allow adequate aid into the Gaza Strip. From that point on, a slew of international rights groups, the World Food Program and the United Nations, all began ringing the alarm bells of impending mass famine inside the besieged coastal enclave. By April of 2024, Israel’s top human rights group B’Tselem issued a report entitled “Manufacturing Famine”, in which it directly accused the Israeli regime of committing the war crime of deliberate starvation against the people of the Gaza Strip. More recently, in November of last year, the independent Famine Review Committee (FRC) issued a rare alert that in northern Gaza there’s a “strong likelihood that famine is imminent”. This came only 3 days before the deadline presented by the Biden administration for Israel to fulfill specific requirements on allowing aid into Gaza, with the implicit threat within the letter that was sent being America halting arms sales. When US officials and spokespersons were requested to comment on the issue, they claimed that Israel had taken steps in the right direction, refusing to address Israel’s failure to live up to American requirements. At the end of December, the US-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) was forced to retract a report it issued that warned of famine in northern Gaza. As exposed by the Associated Press, this pressure to retract the report came from the US government after pressure was placed upon the US’s ambassador to Israel. The FEWS NET report stated that its urgent warning concerned the conclusion that the IPC Phase 5 Famine was taking place in Gaza’s northern governorate. The IPC analysis is a serious framework for judging food insecurity and starvation. According to the US Agency for International Development, Phase 5 denotes that “at least 20 percent of households in an area are experiencing IPC 5 outcomes, meaning these households are facing an extreme lack of food; at least 30 percent of children are suffering from acute malnutrition; and at least 2 per 10,000 people are dying each day.” FEWS NET, is, however, funded by the US government through its USAID program. This means that when Washington chooses to apply pressure to it, they can be coerced and it appears that their decision to take down the report was an example of this. Despite this now relieving some tension in the US Biden Administration, the move has now delegitimized another US-funded organization.Although the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is recognized as the World’s most severe, the US continues to ignore its own institutions and openly lies on behalf of Israel in order to justify its continual weapons supplies to Tel Aviv. In fact, the US government just approved yet another 8 billion dollar weapons package to their Israeli allies.Due to the US’s Leahy Law, which refers to two statutory laws, the legislation prohibits Washington “from using funds for assistance to units of foreign security forces where there is credible information implicating that unit in the commission of gross violations of human rights (GVHR)”. Therefore, the US government could be held legally accountable under its own law if it were to admit to agreeing that there is even evidence that implicates Israel in war crimes. Ultimately, the evidence is so incredibly overwhelming that it is impossible for any reasonable person to argue that the Israelis are not committing gross human rights violations, however, the Biden administration has until its very last month in office refused to acknowledge the facts. This is due to the fact that any acknowledgment of the evidence would force them to stop the flow of lethal military assistance to the Israeli military; without which Israel could not continue their multi-front war.
Report: Israel Considers Cutting Aid to Gaza Even More Under Trump - Israel is considering limiting humanitarian aid deliveries into Gaza even more once President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20,CNN reported on Saturday, citing an Israeli official.In recent months, the amount of aid entering Gaza has reached all-time lows as the Israeli military has been conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza that involves a total siege, which started in early October.The Biden administration claimed it was concerned about the aid restrictions and gave Israel a 30-day time limit to allow up to 350 aid trucks to enter the Strip per day. When the deadline came in November, Israel was not anywhere near that number, but the Biden administrationsaid there would be no consequences, and US weapons shipments to Israel continued to flow.The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said that 2,205 aid trucks entered Gaza in December, about 71 per day. The Israeli official speaking to CNN claimed the purpose of limiting aid even more would be to deprive Hamas of resources, although armed gangs have been looting aid trucks due to the lack of security.Amit Segal, a journalist for Israel’s Channel 12, reported last month that Trump had sent a message to Israel that suggests he won’t care about further aid restrictions despite warnings of famine.“Trump sent messages to Israel: I won’t insist on humanitarian aid as Biden did,” Segal wrote on X on December 22.Israel initially imposed a total siege on Gaza in the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly,” former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on October 9, 2023.Secretary of State Antony Blinken has taken credit for getting the Israeli government to agree to allow some aid into Gaza and said in an with The New York Times that was published on Saturday that it wasn’t just Israeli officials who wanted a total siege.“This wasn’t just the prime minister or a given leader in Israel. This was an entire society that didn’t want any assistance getting to a single Palestinian in Gaza,” Blinken said. While Israel has allowed some aid into Gaza, overall, the deliveries are still very restricted. US government agencies had previously concluded Israel was deliberately blocking aid, which violates US foreign assistance laws, but Blinken overrode those concerns to ensure US weapons continued to flow to Israel.
Trump Says He's the 'Best Friend' Israel Ever Had, Repeats Threat to Hamas - On Monday, President-elect Donald Trump said he was the “best friend” Israel ever had and repeated the threat that there would be “hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.Trump made the comments when asked by radio host Hugh Hewitt if he would provide “uninterrupted” military aid to Israel.“Well, I’m the best friend that Israel ever had. You look at what happened with all of the things that I’ve gotten, including Jerusalem being the capital, the embassy getting built,” Trump said.The president-elect said that any “major event” that’s happened to Israel in recent years had “been given through” him, including the normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain, known as the Abraham Accords. Trump was then asked what he meant when he said there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t released, a threat he first made over a month ago. “If those hostages aren’t released by the time I get to office, there will be hell to pay. I don’t think I have to go into it anymore,” he told Hewitt. In his original threat, Trump appeared to suggest the US might take direct action against Hamas. “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!” he wrote on Truth Social on December 1.Israel’s most hardline elements have celebrated Trump’s victory and view his next term as an opportunity to annex the West Bank. In a sign the Trump administration will likely support such a move, Trump has named former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a staunch supporter of Israeli settlements, as the US ambassador to Israel.During a visit to a West Bank settlement in 2017, Huckabee said, “I think Israel has title deed to Judea and Samaria. There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria. There’s no such thing as a settlement. They’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.”
Report: Military Action Against Iran Will Be a 'Real Possibility' Under Trump - Military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities will be a “real possibility” under the incoming Trump administration, Axios reported on Monday.The report said Trump is expected to face an Iran crisis this year due to the country’s nuclear activity, although there is no evidence Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, something that’s recently been acknowledged by the CIA.Incoming Trump officials have called for a return to “maximum pressure,” referring to the previous Trump administration’s Iran policy, which involved withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, imposing crippling economic sanctions, and assassinating Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.The Biden administration essentially continued the same policy and added more sanctions on Iran, although Tehran has increased its export of oil to markets in Asia where buyers aren’t afraid of US sanctions.Trump advisors told Axios that the “maximum pressure” strategy might not work, making a military option possible. Sources said that Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer left a meeting with Trump in November believing it was highly likely he would either support Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or order a direct US strike on Iran.Back in October, Trump criticized President Biden for advising Israel not to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They asked him, what do you think about Iran, would you hit Iran? And he goes, ‘As long as they don’t hit the nuclear stuff.’ That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Trump said at a campaign rally.The Axios report also said that there are officials within the Biden administration arguing for the US to bomb Iran before Trump’s inauguration. The outlet reported last week that Biden was presented with options to attack Iran but said there are currently no active discussions about doing so.The hype about Tehran’s nuclear program is based on the fact that Iran is enriching some uranium at 60% purity, which is still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade. Iran took the step enrich at 60% in 2021 in response to an Israeli sabotage attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. The JCPOA limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67%.Israeli aggression in the region has prompted calls from members of Iran’s parliament to rethink the ban on building nuclear weapons, but there’s no sign that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is considering lifting his 2003 fatwa that prohibited the development of Weapons of Mass Destruction.Iran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and all of its nuclear facilities are for civilian purposes. In contrast, Israel is not a signatory to the NPT and has a secret nuclear weapons program that the US does not officially acknowledge. It’s estimated that Israel has somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear warheads.
Trump Envoy Will Join Gaza Ceasefire Talks in Qatar - President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Tuesday that he was traveling to Qatar to take part in Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations with Biden administration officials.Chances of a deal seem slim as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear he has no intention of ending the genocidal war, and Hamas is saying any deal must lead to a permanent ceasefire, but Witkoff insisted progress was being made.“We’re making a lot of progress, and I don’t want to say too much because I think they’re doing a really good job back in Doha,” Witkoff, a real estate investor, said at a press conference with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Witkoff said he was “really hopeful that by the inaugural, we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.” When asked what has been impeding a deal, Witkoff declined to answer. “I believe we’ve been on the verge of [a deal]. I don’t want to discuss what’s delayed it — no point to be negative in any way,” he said.Standing alongside Witkoff, Trump repeated his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t start releasing hostages by his inauguration on January 20. “If those hostages aren’t back — if they’re not back by the time I get into office — all hell will break out in the Middle East and it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out. I don’t have to say anymore, but that’s what it is and they should have been back a long time ago,” Trump said.The president-elect has vowed to be a staunch supporter of Israel, as he was in his first term, and said on Monday that he was the “best friend that Israel ever had.”According to media reports, Hamas has released a list of 34 hostages it is willing to release as part of the first phase of a ceasefire deal in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.The Times of Israel reported that a potential deal that’s on the table would only involve a six to seven-week temporary ceasefire. Relatives of Israelis still held in Gaza are calling for the government to pursue a comprehensive deal that releases all the hostages and brings an end to the conflict. During previous rounds of negotiations, Netanyahu sabotaged the chances of a deal by constantly declaring that he wouldn’t agree to a permanent truce and adding new demands.
US Envoy Claims Israel Will Still Withdraw From Southern Lebanon, But Won’t Say When - US special envoy Amos Hochstein is trying to reassure Lebanon and the rest of the world that Israeli troops will withdraw from southern Lebanon, despite repeated media reports that Israel is planning to announce that they’re going to remain. DM Israel Katz said yesterday that Israel might scrap the ceasefire entirely.The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire stipulated Israel withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days. We’re now 42 days into the ceasefire, and Israel has just started to leave a second town, Naqoura. So far Israel had only pulled out of Khiam.Leaving Khiam and Naqoura isn’t necessarily a step in the right direction, as Israel has entered more than two additional Lebanese towns since the ceasefire began. Israel now holds more towns than when the deal was put into place.Reporters from LBC International entered Naqoura after the announced withdrawal, and documented widespread destruction inside the town. That’s no surprise, as military bulldozers have been systematically demolishing civilian homes and other infrastructure in Israeli-occupied areas of Lebanon.Hochstein’s assurance that Israel will leave Lebanon conspicuously fails to mention a departure date. As it’s increasingly apparent Israel won’t leave during the 60-day ceasefire window, Hochstein’s comments don’t mean much.
Palestinian Authority Requests $680 Million In Security Assistance From US -The Palestinian Authority (PA) asked the United States to approve a four-year $680m plan to boost the training of its special forces and bolster its supply of ammunition and armoured vehicles, an American source and a source close to PA revealed to Middle East Eye.The request was made in mid-December at a meeting with US security officials at the PA's Ministry of Interior in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank. At the meeting, PA security officials expressed frustration over what they believed was the US’s failure to fulfil its commitments to the authority by replenishing arms supplies and training special forces"Authority officials requested in the meeting that their needs for armored vehicles and ammunition be met urgently in light of thedifficulty of the clashes and their inability to resolve the situation in the Jenin camp," a source told MEE.They also complained that the US had yet to approve funding for renovation works at prisons in Bethlehem and Nablus in the occupied West Bank. The meeting came as the PA launched a crackdown on Palestinian fighters belonging to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Jenin. Fighting in the northern West Bank city, long a bastion of Palestinian resistance, has killed at least eight people, according to local media reports. One former US intelligence official told MEE that the PA’s request for additional funding and arms made sense because the US has been pressing the PA for months to ramp up security operations in the occupied West Bank. The PA has been critical of the departing Biden administration’s post-war planning for the destroyed Gaza Strip.Since the summer, the US has tried to bolster coordination with the PA. A think tank panel staffed by former US officials even presented a plan to bring cooperation with the PA's security forces under the purview of Centcom, MEE reported previously.
State Department Accuses RSF of Committing Genocide in Sudan - On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of committing genocide in Sudan’s Civil War and announced sanctions on RSF’s leader, Mohammad Hamdan Daglo Mousa, known as Hemedti. Since war broke out between Hemedti’s RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in April 2023, at least tens of thousands have been killed, and millions are facing acute food shortages, with an estimated 638,000 already facing famine. Atrocities have been committed by both sides, and Blinken said he previously determined both the RSF and SAF had “committed war crimes.” The RSF and allied militias have also been accused of carrying out massacres of civilians.“The RSF and allied militias have systematically murdered men and boys—even infants—on an ethnic basis and deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence,” Blinken said.He said the US was targeting Hemedti with sanctions for “his role in systematic atrocities committed against the Sudanese people” and “sanctioning seven RSF-owned companies located in the United Arab Emirates and one individual for their roles in procuring weapons for the RSF.”The UAE has been covertly shipping weapons to the RSF, but that hasn’t stopped the Biden administration from pushing forward major arms sales to Abu Dhabi.Blinken’s declaration that the RSF is committing genocide comes as he and other Biden administration officials are vehemently denying that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza despite that becoming the consensus of leading human rights organizations.By supplying Israel with weapons and providing political support, the US has enabled the mass slaughter of Palestinian women and children, including many infants, the systematic targeting of hospitals, a starvation blockade, and the demolition of entire cities to achieve ethnic cleansing. Palestinians detained by the Israeli military have also facedrape and torture.
The Biden Administration Declares That A Genocide Is Happening… In Sudan - Caitlin Johnstone - The Biden administration, which has been intimately complicit in the genocidal atrocities being perpetrated in Gaza for the last 15 months, has just determined that a genocide is being committed in Sudan.On Tuesday the Biden administration formally accused the Sudanese paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of committing genocide in the civil war that has been ravaging the country since April 2023, announcing sanctions on the group’s leader Mohammad Hamdan Daglo Mousa along with seven RSF-affiliated companies.“The RSF and RSF-aligned militias have continued to direct attacks against civilians,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken moralized in a statement regarding the decision, adding, “The RSF and allied militias have systematically murdered men and boys — even infants — on an ethnic basis, and deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence. Those same militias have targeted fleeing civilians, murdering innocent people escaping conflict, and prevented remaining civilians from accessing lifesaving supplies.”Sometimes all you can do is stare wordlessly at the absolute gall of these freaks.This is after all the same Antony Blinken who just flatly denied that a genocide is taking place in Gaza in his final interviews with the press a few days ago, even as mainstream western human rights institutions like Amnesty Internationaland Human Rights Watch unambiguously accuse Israel of committing genocidal crimes of extermination against Palestinians in the enclave.This is the same Biden administration which has adamantly insisted on continuing to supply Israel with the weapons it depends on to continue its genocidal onslaught in Gaza, despite mountains of undeniable evidence that it is deliberately targeting civilians with deadly force and deliberately cutting off civilians from food, clean water and medical supplies.And this is also the same Biden administration that has been sending weapons to the United Arab Emirates while conveniently ignoring the fact that the UAE is sending money and weapons to the RSF to use for its atrocities in Sudan.“The UAE has been covertly shipping weapons to the RSF, but that hasn’t stopped the Biden administration from pushing forward major arms sales to Abu Dhabi,” notes Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp regarding the announcement.So the US is indirectly backing the genocidal atrocities it now denounces in Sudan, while aggressively defending the genocidal atrocities it is directly backing in Gaza.This announcement comes as Biden and his handlers push through one last $8 billion weapons shipment to Israel in the last days of his term, a final blood-soaked punctuation mark on an ugly legacy of mass murder throughout Biden’s far-too-long political career.
US Launches More Strikes on Yemen, Claims To Target Underground Houthi Facilities - The US military said Wednesday that it launched more strikes on Yemen, claiming to target underground Houthi weapons storage facilities.US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces “conducted multiple precision strikes against two Iranian-backed Houthi underground Advanced Conventional Weapon (ACW) storage facilities within Houthi-controlled territories of Yemen.”Yemeni media reported five airstrikes in the Amran province and two in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. It’s unclear if there were any casualties in the attacks, which Yemeni media reported as “US-British airstrikes.” The UK has joined the US in several rounds of airstrikes on Yemen, but it’s unclear if British forces were involved in the latest bombing.CENTCOM claimed that the Houthis used the “facilities to conduct attacks against US Navy warships and merchant vessels in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”In recent weeks, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have stepped up their attacks on US warships and on Israel despite a nearly years-long US bombing campaign against them. In one incident, the US ended up shooting down its own F/A-18 fighter jet while intercepting Houthi missiles and drones.January 12 will mark one year of the US bombing campaign against the Houthis, which President Biden launched to defend Israeli shipping, which Ansar Allah began targeting in response to the onslaught in Gaza. Since then, the situation has only escalated as the Houthis began targeting US and British-linked shipping in response.Israeli media has reported that President-elect Donald Trump might escalate attacks on the Houthis after his inauguration on January 20. Trump took a hardline position on Yemen in his previous term, strongly backing the Saudi war against the Houthis and vetoing a congressional resolution to end US involvement in the conflict.From 2015-2022, the US backed the Saudi war on Yemen, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time. According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
US Launches Airstrike in Somalia, Claims 10 al-Shabaab Fighters Killed - US Africa Command said on Tuesday that its forces launched an airstrike in southern Somalia on December 31, which it claimed killed 10 al-Shabaab militants. The command said the strike was launched on a town about 35 kilometers southwest of the southern port city of Kismaayo. AFRICOM claimed that its “initial post-strike assessment” found no civilians were harmed, though the Pentagon is notorious for hiding civilian casualties in Somalia. AFRICOM framed the attack as a “collective self-defense airstrike” since it was launched in support of the Mogadishu-based government’s forces fighting on the ground. “In addition to the airstrike, US forces provided support to Somali forces by evacuating Soldiers that were attacked while fighting the terrorist group,” AFRICOM said. The strike was the second that AFRICOM launched in December. The last US attack took place on December 24, the first known US airstrike in Somalia since July 15, 2024. AFRICOM claimed the December 24 strikekilled a senior al-Shabaab leader, Mohamed Mire, and another militant. The renewed US airstrikes come as the US-backed government has been losing power in Jubaland, the southernmost federal state of Somalia. The US-backed government rejected Jubaland’s November election results, leading Jubaland to suspend relations with Mogadishu.The tensions have resulted in some clashes between federal government forces and local Jubaland forces, which are backed by Ethiopia. Both recent US airstrikes took place in Jubaland as there are concerns that al-Shabaab is taking advantage of the crisis. The US military claims al-Shabaab is a threat to the US due to its size and al-Qaeda affiliation, but it’s widely believed the group does not have ambitions outside of Somalia. Al-Shabaab was born out of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that toppled the Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of Muslim groups who briefly held power in Mogadishu after ousting CIA-backed warlords.Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union. The group’s first recorded attack was in 2007, and it wasn’t until 2012 that al-Shabaab pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda after years of fighting the US and its proxies.
Trump Says He Won’t Rule Out Military Force To Take Panama Canal, Greenland - At a press conference on Tuesday, President-elect Donald Trump repeated his calls for the US to take the Panama Canal and Greenland and said he wouldn’t rule out the idea of military force. When asked if he would avoid using economic and military coercion, Trump said, “I can’t assure you. You’re talking about Panama and Greenland. No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.” Trump claims that the Panama Canal is controlled by China, but it is under the control of the Panama Canal Authority, a government agency of Panama. “Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country, it’s being operated by China, China. And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn’t give it to China,” he said.The president-elect has even alleged that Chinese soldiers are in the Panama Canal. “Christmas greetings to all, including the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal,” he wrote on Truth Social on Christmas Day.Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino called Trump’s claims “nonsense” and said the canal was under the full control of Panama. “There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal. You are free, the whole world is free to visit the canal if you please,” he said. “What [Trump] has said on this issue is nonsense; it does not exist.”At the press conference on Tuesday, Trump criticized the deal that had been reached under the Carter administration, which handed the canal to Panama in 1999. He also said the fees for US ships to transit the canal were too high.The president-elect also cited China to explain why he wanted to take Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark. He said Denmark should “give up” Greenland for the “free world.” Greenland already hosts a US military base and is a founding member of NATO.“They should give it up because we need it for national security,” Trump said. “You have Chinese ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place. We’re not letting that happen.”Trump has also been calling for the US to absorb Canada as a 51st state and said at the press conference that he could use “economic force” to achieve that goal. “Because Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security,” he said.The president-elect also said he intended to impose “substantial” tariffs on goods coming from Canada and Mexico due to trade deficits, illegal immigration, and drugs coming through the borders. He also outlined a plan to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.”“We’re going to change because we do most of the work there, and it’s ours,” Trump said. “It’s appropriate, and Mexico has to stop allowing millions of people to pour into our country.”
Trump Won't Rule Out Military Force to Seize Control of Panama Canal, Greenland - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has been rebuked in recent days by the leaders of both Panama and Denmark for his insistence that the Panama Canal and Danish territory Greenland must be under American control, and his latest comments on Tuesday were expected to garner more anger—and eye-rolling—from abroad. At a press conference at his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, the Republican leader refused to rule out using military force to take over the canal and Greenland. "It might be that you'll have to do something. The Panama Canal is vital to our country," said Trump. "We need Greenland for national security purposes." He added that both the canal and Greenland, the world's largest island and home to a U.S. military base, are needed for U.S. "economic security." Under President Jimmy Carter, who died late last month, the U.S. signed a treaty returning the Panama Canal Zone to Panama in 1979, and the waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has been solely controlled by the Panamanian government since 1999. Trump repeated a false claim that the canal is being "operated by China." Last month, after the president-elect demanded "that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America in full, quickly and without question," Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino posted a video to social media in response."As president, I want to clearly state that every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjoining zone is Panama's and will remain so," Mulino said. "The sovereignty and independence of our country is non-negotiable." Trump's comments came as his son, Donald Trump Jr., joined right-wing activist Charlie Kirk and other Trump allies on a visit to Greenland.The president-elect suggested in a social media post that the trip was made in an official capacity, writing: "The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!"But Greenland officials clarified that Trump Jr. was visiting only as a "private individual" and said no representatives would be meeting with him.Trump said at his press conference that "people really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to [Greenland], but if they do they should give it up because we need it for national security." Greenland is home to 60,000 people, and is self-ruling with its own legislature while its foreign and defense policy are controlled by Denmark. The Arctic island lies in a region where global powers are vying for military and economic control.
Trump's Greenland and Panama Canal ambitions face Republican skepticism - Republican lawmakers are scratching their heads over President-elect Trump’s ambitions to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal, grand plans the incoming commander in chief put back on the table over the Christmas and New Year’s recess. GOP senators and House members view the prospect of the United States taking over Greenland as particularly outlandish, but they are leery of confronting Trump. The idea of resuming direct U.S. control over the Panama Canal also seems unlikely, but some Republican lawmakers say the United States has a vital national security interest in protecting the canal’s neutrality. They also warn that China is trying to expand its influence in Central and South America, which may be why Trump floated the idea shortly before Christmas of regaining control of the canal. But senior Republicans on Capitol Hill don’t see a path for Trump acquiring Greenland or the Panama Canal and point out there’s been no serious discussion of those ideas in Washington since Trump left the White House four years ago. “I don’t think it’s for sale,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the former chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said of Greenland, chuckling. McCaul said China has a presence on both ends of the Panama Canal but he doesn’t see a path for the United States getting it back. “He’s probably referring somewhat to that, but I’m not sure legally how you can purchase that, if that’s what he’s talking about,” he said. McCaul laughed when asked whether Trump would mull a possible military invasion of Greenland or Panama, replying: “I don’t think so.” “I think he’s kind of freely speaking. He’d love to have Greenland. He seems to really like Greenland a lot,” he said of Trump. “I think he thinks that Jimmy Carter — God rest his soul — sold it for a dollar and that was not a good deal,” he said of the Panama Canal. “We gave up a lot.” McCaul said lawmakers should brace themselves for Trump floating major foreign policy ideas off the cuff, something that’s already causing agitation on Capitol Hill. “You’re going to see a lot more. It’s the way Trump is. You try to dissect what’s reality, what’s not,” he said. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) laughed when asked about Trump’s territorial designs on Greenland and the Panama Canal. He noted that the United States has a history of territorial expansion, even though it’s not being discussed seriously outside of Trump’s social media account. “The United States has not always been 50 states. We’ve acquired Alaska and the Hawaiian Islands and even Texas in 1845, so I haven’t heard any real discussions outside of what President Trump said,” Cornyn said. Cornyn, showing due deference to the president elect, said he’s “willing to listen” to what Trump has in mind but didn’t seem to expect any detailed proposal would come to Congress soon. One Republican senator joked that Greenland is ripe for the taking because it doesn’t have a standing military of any consequence. “I wonder where their Army and Navy are going to come from,” the senator quipped.
House Republican bill would pave way for Trump to acquire Panama Canal for US -- Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) will introduce a bill that would authorize the president to purchase the Panama Canal and put it under U.S. control, an acquisition that President-elect Trump has been pushing over the last several weeks. Johnson plans to introduce the Panama Canal Repurchase Act on Thursday, The Hill has learned. “President Trump is right to consider repurchasing the Panama Canal. China’s interest in and presence around the canal is a cause for concern,” Johnson said in a statement. “America must project strength abroad – owning and operating the Panama Canal might be an important step towards a stronger America and a more secure globe.” The bill would authorize the president, in coordination with the Secretary of State, to “initiate and conduct negotiations with appropriate counterparts of the Government of the Republic of Panama to reacquire the Panama Canal” according to draft text shared with The Hill. Trump in December had complained about the deal signed by former President Carter, saying that he “foolishly gave it away, for One Dollar.” That is an apparent reference to the symbolic sale of the canal that was accompanied by numerous other provisions in the Carter-Torrijos Treaties signed in 1977 that transferred control of the canal to Panama. An initial draft of Johnson’s bill authorized re-acquisition of the canal for the symbolic amount of $1.The bill also directs the president to submit a report to Congress within 180 days of passage “detailing the progress of the negotiations” as well as the “potential challenges” and “anticipated outcomes.” Fox News first reported Johnson’s plans to introduce the bill. Trump on Tuesday refused to commit to not using the U.S. military to take control of the Panama Canal. “I’m not going to commit to that. It might be that you have to do something,” Trump said in a press conference from Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. “Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country, it’s being operated by China, China. And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn’t give it to China.” Despite Johnson’s bill, the idea of the U.S. taking control of the Panama Canal — as well as acquiring Greenland — is facing skepticism from other Capitol Hill Republicans. “I think he was speaking aspirationally,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said recently about Trump’s ambitions of taking control of the Panama Canal and Greenland.
Trump’s eldest son bribed poor Greenlanders to show support for his father’s plans to buy territory: Report - The eldest son of US President-elect Donald Trump bribed poor Greenlanders to show support for his father plans to annex the territory, the Danish public broadcaster claimed Thursday. Several sources said a portion of the people who appeared in a video by Trump's campaign team that was recorded at a restaurant in the capital city of Nuuk, and pictures on social media, are homeless and socially disadvantaged, according to DR. Trump’s office did not return calls by the broadcaster to comment on, but his local supporters rejected the accusations. “That some poor and socially disadvantaged people attended the dinner at the restaurant doesn’t mean they were bribed,” said Jorgen Boassen, who called himself the biggest fan of Trump in Greenland. “People are free to express their opinion whether they oppose or support Trump’s plans,” he added. Trump reignited his contentious proposal Monday on his Truth Social platform. “Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation. We will protect it, and cherish it, from a very vicious outside World. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!” he wrote Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed Trump’s remarks, reiterating her country’s stance on Greenland’s autonomy. Trump’s son, Don Jr, visited Greenland on Tuesday in a private capacity. A meeting between government leader Mute Egede and King Frederik was canceled for scheduling reasons, according to Egede and the Danish palace. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen attributed the timing of the investment to coincidence, but the announcement followed Trump's renewed interest in the region. Denmark, which has faced criticism for historical injustices in Greenland, including forced contraception campaigns in the mid-20th century, recently announced plans to increase defense spending on the island.
Greenland leader says he's 'ready' to talk with Trump - Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede said he is “ready” to talk with President-elect Trump, who has recently expressed ambitions for the U.S. to acquire Greenland, the world’s largest island. Egede was asked during a press conference in Copenhagen on Friday if he was in touch with the president-elect. He said no, but added that “we are ready to talk.” Trump has previously said the U.S. control of Greenland, an autonomous island within the Kingdom of Denmark, is “an absolute necessity.” He declined to rule out using the military in hopes of getting the island with a population of over 56,000 people, arguing its control is crucial to national security, a sentiment echoed earlier this week by his pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.). Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen met with Egede in Copenhagen on Friday. Both were at the press conference. During the address, Frederiksen said she had asked for a meeting with the president-elect. Egede emphasized Friday that, “Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic.” In recent days, Denmark has been communicating with Trump’s team, showing openness to talk about fortifying the island’s security or ramping up the U.S. military presence on the Arctic island, Axios reported Saturday, citing two sources with knowledge of the issue. The Hill has reached out to Trump’s transition team about the reported messages. Frederiksen earlier this week stressed that Greenland is not for sale, remarks that were made as Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., arrived on the Arctic island. Trump Jr. was there for a day trip to shoot some video content for a podcast, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill.
Trump claims Trudeau’s political scalp, paving way for far-right regime in Canada - Justin Trudeau announced Monday that he will step down as Canada’s prime minister just as soon as his Liberal Party chooses a successor. Trudeau’s resignation is part of a violent lurch of bourgeois politics to the right around the world. The rival imperialist ruling classes are restructuring politics in accordance with the oligarchical character of contemporary capitalist society and their drive to repartition the world through global war. The return of the fascist and failed January 6, 2021 coup plotter Donald Trump both epitomizes this process and is serving to accelerate it. Trudeau’s resignation comes on the heels of the collapse of governments in Germany, France and now Austria. The European bourgeoisie has responded to Trump’s election by rushing to heed his demand that Europe assume more of the burden of the NATO-instigated war with Russia and by pressing for a massive intensification of the assault on the working class. Trump’s trade war threats, his repeated mocking of Trudeau as a “governor”—the title of the chief executive of a US state—and his repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st state have massively destabilized Canadian imperialism and now sealed the political fate of Trudeau. Trudeau responded to Trump’s threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico from “Day One,” unless they integrate themselves more fully into his war on immigrants and plans to militarize the external and internal borders of North America, by rushing to Mar-a-Lago. However, his spineless genuflection before the fascist would-be dictator failed to appease Trump. Yesterday he eagerly claimed Trudeau’s political scalp and repeated his effective call for Canada’s annexation. This, moreover, he cast within the context of US imperialism’s strategic conflict with Russia and China and his drive for a Fortress North America. “Many people in Canada,” proclaimed Trump on his Truth Media social media platform, “LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. “If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!”
Trump proposes merger of U.S. and Canada amid Trudeau's resignation - President-elect Trump pitched the idea of a “merged” United States and Canada after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, noting there would be no tariffs if the two countries were one. “If Canada merged with the U.S., there would no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them,” Trump posted to his Truth Social site. “Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!” Trudeau announced Monday that he would be resigning before general elections later this year. His Liberal Party is polling poorly as tensions with Trump have risen over the issue of tariffs.“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” Trudeau said.After Trudeau’s announcement Monday, Trump touted the idea that many Canadians would “LOVE” the idea of being the “51st State” of the U.S.He said the merger would be beneficial for the U.S., because it would “no longer suffer” from “massive Trade Deficits” and subsidies that it provides to Canada.“Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned,” Trump said.Trudeau has served as Canada’s prime minister for nine years and led the Liberal Party for 11. He has faced mounting crises, including the resignation of a top minister and a confrontation withTrump’s 25 percent tariff plan, among other issues. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland criticized Trudeau in her resignation, saying he was pursuing “costly political gimmicks” as Trump threatens tariffs on the neighboring country.Trump trolled Trudeau last month as Canada’s “governor” after they had dinner. He also criticized Freeland for what he described as “totally toxic” behavior. Trudeau said he would retaliate if Trump went through with the tariff hike and said it would be more difficult for the two countries to work together. With Trudeau’s resignation underway, Canada’s Liberal Party will be hosting a competitive race to find a replacement.Liberal legislators will host an emergency meeting Wednesday.
What to know about Trump’s calls to make Canada the ‘51st state’ - President-elect Trump has doubled down on his suggestion of a merged United States and Canada in the wake of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to resign. Some have shrugged off Trump’s suggestion Canada should “become the 51st state” as an old joke or mere posturing, while others dismiss it as a bad political idea, given Canada’s blue leanings. But Trump on Tuesday threatened “economic force” to annex the U.S.’s neighbor to the north. Together with talks of buying Greenland and controlling the Panama Canal, the comments suggest he’s aiming to expand U.S. power after he takes office this month. The concept, though, continues to be largely unpopular among Canadians. And with Trudeau exiting the political stage, it’s unclear what impact Trump’s remarks will have on the U.S.-Canada relationship under new leaders.Here’s what to know about Trump’s calls to merge the U.S. and Canada:The idea of a union between the U.S. and Canada dates back centuries, when early American leaders invaded Quebec during the American Revolution. A few decades later, the U.S. unsuccessfully invaded Canada during the War of 1812 amid frustration over the Royal Navy’s moves to bring American sailors into their own ships. “Canada and the US fought a war over this in 1812,” said Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at the University of Western Ontario and a visiting professor at McGill University, as he shrugged off Trump’s idea of a renewed annexation push. Annexation and invasion fears continued through the American Civil War and amid the U.S. push for expansion and Manifest Destiny, or the idea that the U.S. was destined to control the continent. But those fears ended as the two nations shifted to become “fierce allies” in the 20th Century, said Mount Royal University’s Duane Bratt, a political science professor with a focus on Canadian foreign policy.“NORAD was formed. NATO was formed. Canadians fought with Americans in World War I and in World War II, and in Korea and in the Gulf War,” Bratt said. “American soldiers died for Canada. Canadian soldiers died for the United States.”Today, Canada and the U.S. have been steadfast military and economic partners for more than a century. But some wonder whether Trump’s jabs against his country’s longtime ally could hint at hopes for the U.S. to control more of the Western Hemisphere. “Do we want to go back to 1812, the 1860s? Maybe Trump does, but I’m not too sure Americans do, or Canadians do,” Bratt said. Trump’s talk of annexation and merging is unpopular with Canadians — and so is the American president-elect.A recent Leger poll, reported by The Canadian Press, found a whopping 82 percent of Canadians were opposed to the idea of joining the U.S. as the next state. Another Leger poll from October found that, when asked which American candidate they’d support if they could vote in the 2024 race, roughly two-thirds of Canadians backed Vice President Harris, and just 21 percent supported Trump. “I don’t think he realizes that Canada would be a Democratic state — that we would be a blue state the size of California,” Bratt said. Then there’s the logistical thorniness. Canada is a constitutional monarchy, compared to the U.S. republic, and is already split into 10 provinces. “It might look like Canada and the United States have a lot in common, but a quarter of Canada speaks French, and the province of Quebec still isn’t part of the Canadian Constitution. They don’t want to be part of the American Constitution,” Lebo said. Still, some see merit in what the president-elect’s suggesting. “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian who recently spent time at Trump’s Palm Beach hub, told “The Hill” on NewsNation that there are “some very interesting concepts” within that idea, including an “economic union.”
Trump threatens “terrorist” designation for drug cartels, paving way for US military operations against Mexico Potential plans for US military operations in Mexico have surfaced in the media after incoming US President Donald Trump vowed to designate Mexican drug cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.” At a far-right AmericaFest rally on December 22, Trump promised to make the designation “immediately” as part of “a historic slate of executive orders” he will sign after his inauguration on January 20. Under the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 Act, this step would provide the legal framework, not only for financial and criminal penalties, but also for military operations in Mexico, as noted by The Independent. Based on discussions with transition team officials, Rolling Stone followed up by reporting on military plans that have already been presented to Trump for consideration, which “included airstrikes on cartel infrastructure, assassinating cartel leaders, and training Mexican forces” as well as “covert operations and patrols just over the border to stem the flow of drugs across the frontier.” The magazine asked active and retired military personnel what such an operation would look like. Several compared a potential offensive to dismantle the drug cartel leadership to US wars in the Middle East. One veteran said: “It’s Iraq all over again. You’re going to find and fix the HVT [high-value target] and then start gutting the networks. Take out the key leaders, and then what they’re going to do after that is they’re going to just run the middle management right off the battlefield.” Trump has argued that a war must be waged to prevent cartels from controlling American cities and stopping overdose deaths. However, the transparent aims of designating cartels “terrorist organizations” by the government most implicated in war crimes and terrorism are well known to those familiar with the “war on terror.” Trump sees cartels as a new overarching pretext based on lies, like the “weapons of mass destruction,” Al Qaeda or the Taliban, to wage wars of aggression abroad and escalate attacks on democratic rights at home. As part of his mass deportation plans, Trump is presenting working-class migrant communities in the United States and incoming waves of migrants escaping the economic and social devastation caused by a century of imperialist oppression as demographics plagued by criminal organizations—claims completely belied by statistics. At the same time, his administration wants to set a precedent for renewing Washington’s long and bloody record of military invasions during the 19th and 20th century, as a means of tightening its stranglehold over US imperialism’s key geostrategic underbelly and source of natural resources and cheap labor.
Elon Musk says UK's Nigel Farage should not be Reform party leader --Tech billionaire Elon Musk said Sunday that British politician Nigel Farage should not be the Reform U.K. party’s leader.“The Reform Party needs a new leader,” Musk said in a post on the social platform X, which he owns. “Farage doesn’t have what it takes.”Musk has recently been posting on social media about U.K. politics, calling for the release of far-right activist Tommy Robinson. Robinson is a founder of the far-right English Defense League who was sentenced late last year to a year and a half in prison due to violating a court order prohibiting him from repeating libelous allegations toward a Syrian refugee.Farage later responded to Musk’s post with an X post of his own, stating that it was “a surprise.”“Well, this is a surprise! Elon is a remarkable individual but on this I am afraid I disagree. My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles,” Farage said. Farage also said in a recent clip from Sky News that when it comes to Reform U.K., he doesn’t wish for Robinson to be a member.In a post from earlier this week, Musk had said “only” Farage’s party “can save Britain.”Musk has also recently been going after the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on social media. He criticized the prime minister’s history as Britain’s director of public prosecutions, noting grooming scandals in the country unveiled in 2013.“In the UK, serious crimes such as rape require the Crown Prosecution Service’s [CPS] approval for the police to charge suspects. Who was the head of the CPS when rape gangs were allowed to exploit young girls without facing justice? Keir Starmer, 2008-2013,” Musk wrote on X. The Hill has reached out to Reform U.K. and Robinson’s account on X for comment.
Elon Musk asks his followers if the US 'should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government' -Tech billionaire Elon Musk on Monday asked his followers on the social platform X, which he owns, if the U.S. “should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government.”“America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government,” Musk captioned a post with a poll on X highlighted by Mediaite, with users able to click “Yes” or “No.” The U.K.’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, recently condemned the “lies and misinformation” undermining his country’s democracy and his record following continued attacks by Musk. The tech billionaire has recently sought to use the power of his social media network to promote far-right movements in the U.K. and Germany.In the past few days, Musk has boosted populist and anti-immigrant figures in the U.K. and Germany, where he has significant business investments. He has pushed for new U.K. elections, gone after Starmer and voiced support for far-right figures in the country like the anti-immigrant Tommy Robinson. Robinson was sentenced late last year to a year and a half in prison due to violating a court order prohibiting him from repeating libelous allegations about a Syrian refugee, and Musk has been calling for his release.On Sunday, Musk said that British politician Nigel Farage should not be the leader of the far-right Reform U.K. party. In a post last week on X, Musk said “only” Farage’s party “can save Britain.”“The Reform Party needs a new leader,” Musk said in a Sunday post on X. “Farage doesn’t have what it takes.”Farage later responded to Musk’s post with an X post of his own, stating that it was “a surprise.”“Well, this is a surprise! Elon is a remarkable individual but on this I am afraid I disagree. My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles,” Farage said.Farage also said in a recent clip from Sky News that when it comes to Reform U.K., he doesn’t wish for Robinson to be a member.
Elon Musk's role in Trump's foreign policy scrutinized - Elon Musk has increasingly waded into foreign politics from the perch of his social platform X — a development that experts say likely raises questions for U.S. allies about his role in foreign policy, and stir frustration within the incoming Trump administration. Musk, who has become a central player in President-elect Trump’s inner circle since backing his presidential bid last year, has thrown his weight behind far-right parties in both the United Kingdom and Germany in recent weeks. “Certainly there’s an interdependent relationship between Musk and Trump, as we saw during the U.S. presidential election,” said Garret Martin, co-director of American University’s Transatlantic Policy Center. “I think Musk has a rather large megaphone with X. He has a large number of followers, and he has deep pockets. So I think it’s a rather helpful tool.” “But, you know, Musk is a bit of a loose cannon. I mean, he seems to be following his own ambitions and his own goals, which may not always be exactly identical to those of Trump. So for that reason, I think it’s really a double-edged sword.” A spokesperson for the Trump transition did not respond to a request for comment. Since pouring at least $250 million into Trump’s campaign, Musk has become a fixture at Trump’s side. The tech billionaire is set to co-chair the brand-new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in the incoming administration, dedicated to slashing government costs. However, Musk’s role seems to go far beyond the cost-cutting commission, with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO reportedly joining Trump on calls with foreign leaders since the election. “I think that foreign governments are watching it and trying to figure out where the balance of power is within Trump World. They take Musk more seriously than just a billionaire mouthing off, but they don’t regard it necessarily as policy,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried. With Musk an increasingly prominent fixture in Trump World, foreign governments and close U.S. allies are following his comments closely and trying to figure out where the center of the Trump administration is likely to be, Fried said. “Is it going to be with Elon Musk or Donald Trump Jr. on the one hand or is it going to be with people like Mike Waltz, [Alex] Wong, Marco Rubio on the other?” he said, referring to Trump’s nominees for national security adviser, deputy national security adviser and secretary of State, respectively. “We don’t know yet.” “Musk is going to have a kind of advisory job as the head of this Department of Government Efficiency, and we’ll see if this amounts to much, and he’ll be a part of the circle of people around Trump,” Fried added. “He’ll always have some input, but not necessarily just positive.”
How business is bracing for a US-China trade war -- President-elect Trump talked tough on tariffs on his way to securing a resounding win for Republicans in November, and now businesses are preparing for a trade war that could eclipse the one that Trump kicked off in 2018 during his first term. While the tariff talk may have served as an early-stage negotiating tactic in addition to a policy proposal, it’s already having political and economic consequences. U.S. ports are seeing a surge in cargo volumes ahead of the expected import taxes, which Trump has said could encompass a 10 percent to 20 percent general tariff and 60 percent tariffs on goods from China, one of the U.S.’s main trading partners. The Port of Los Angeles, which is the U.S.’s main commercial gateway to China, handled almost a million 20-foot containers in October, an increase of 25 percent on the year that port officials attributed in part to the prospect of new tariffs. Volumes were up 16 percent in November and were tracking a 19 percent increase in December. Following a threat by Trump to impose a 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau headed to Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., for a meeting with Trump, followed last month by the Canadian Finance Minister and Foreign Minister. In Congress, lawmakers are debating whether to demote China as a most favored U.S. trading partner by doing away with permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), a classification awarded to the country when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) more than 20 years ago. That move would be mostly symbolic since the U.S. has maintained tariffs on China for years and recently instituted new ones on electric vehicles and components. But it would nonetheless send a clear signal that the economic relationship between the U.S. and China is being downgraded. “This would basically be smacking the WTO in the face,” Bill Reinsch, international business chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Hill. A spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team told The Hill the incoming administration “will work quickly” on tariffs and the economy, and intends to “re-shore” American jobs. Here’s a look at how a reset in economic relations between the U.S. and China will affect the two countries and broader dynamics within the global economy.
US Steel and Nippon Steel sue Biden administration over blocked merger - U.S. Steel and Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel sued the U.S. government Monday in a last-ditch effort to move forward with their merger, which President Biden blocked Friday over national security concerns. The new lawsuit accuses Biden of interfering in the merger review process for political gain and to curry favor with the United Steelworkers Union (USW). The companies in a separate lawsuit on Monday alleged the USW illegally colluded with steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs, which previously tried to purchase U.S. Steel, to undermine the proposed deal. “We did everything right as a company with Nippon. We did everything right. The government failed us. They failed because they didn’t follow the process, and we are going to right that wrong. They failed our workers. They failed our communities. They failed our country. They failed our best ally in Asia, and they have embolden China by not following the rule of law,” U.S. Steel President and CEO David Burritt told Fox Business Network’s Lydia Hu on Monday. “And so, just like with legal issues, we’ve seen corruption, and we’re going to say something loudly, and we’re going to do something with litigation to right this wrong so that our workers and our communities and our country will benefit,” he later added. Cleveland-Cliffs President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves called the lawsuit “a shameless effort to scapegoat others for U.S. Steel’s and Nippon Steel’s self-inflicted disaster.” “Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel continue to play the blame game in a desperate attempt to distract from their own failures,” Goncalves said in a statement. USW International President David McCall said in a statement to The Hill on Monday that the union is reviewing the complaint and “will vigorously defend against these baseless allegations.” “By blocking Nippon Steel’s attempt to acquire U.S. Steel, the Biden administration protected vital U.S. interests, safeguarded our national security and helped preserve a domestic steel industry that underpins our country’s critical supply chains,” McCall said. The Hill has contacted the White House for comment. Biden said late last week that his decision to block foreign ownership of a “vital American company” was a matter of national security. “It is my solemn responsibility as president to ensure that, now and long into the future, America has a strong domestically owned and operated steel industry that can continue to power our national sources of strength at home and abroad,” Biden said in a statement. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and President-elect Trump also opposed the merger. “Why would they want to sell U.S. Steel now when Tariffs will make it a much more profitable and valuable company?” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. “Wouldn’t it be nice to have U.S. Steel, once the greatest company in the World, lead the charge toward greatness again? It can all happen very quickly!”Labor groups celebrated the Biden administration’s decision to block the proposed deal, which was sharply criticized by many in big business.“From the outset of the process, both Nippon Steel and U. S. Steel have engaged in good faith with all parties to underscore how the Transaction will enhance, not threaten, United States national security, including by revitalizing communities that rely on American steel, bolstering the American steel supply chain, and strengthening America’s domestic steel industry against the threat from China,” U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel said Monday in a joint statement on the litigation.’
Joe Biden blocks some new offshore drilling ahead of Donald Trump takeover - President Biden has blocked new offshore drilling for oil and gas in several parts of the country about two weeks before President-elect Trump takes office. Biden has announced he’ll block new drilling off the entire East Coast, as well as California, Oregon and Washington state. The president’s move also blocks some drilling off Alaska’s coast in portions of the Northern Bering Sea and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. “Drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs. It is not worth the risks,” Biden said in a statement. “As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren,” he added. Biden’s effort does not target areas that are major hubs for fossil fuel development — the vast majority of U.S. offshore oil and gas production comes from the central and western Gulf of Mexico, which is unaffected by Monday’s announcement. According to the Interior Department, industry activity in the area Biden blocked off has historically been “very low,” and there is no active oil and gas exploration or production in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the effort could be an effort to prevent expansions from taking place under President-elect Trump, who has promised to promote domestic energy production and “drill baby drill.” “This is a disgraceful decision designed to exact political revenge on the American people who gave President Trump a mandate to increase drilling and lower gas prices,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement Monday. “Rest assured, Joe Biden will fail, and we will drill, baby, drill.” Oil industry groups also blasted the decision, which represents the largest area ever formally taken off the table for drilling by a president. “American voters sent a clear message in support of domestic energy development, and yet the current administration is using its final days in office to cement a record of doing everything possible to restrict it,” said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, an oil and gas lobbying group. “We urge policymakers to use every tool at their disposal to reverse this politically motivated decision and restore a pro-American energy approach to federal leasing,” Sommers added. While Trump could try to reverse Biden’s move to protect more than 625 million acres, it’s not clear whether he would be successful. During his first term, Trump tried to undo a similar move to protect certain areas from drilling issued under former President Obama, but was stopped by a judge, who ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. While Trump was largely supportive of oil and gas during his first term, he also blocked drilling off the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
President-elect Trump pledges to unban oil drilling after Biden move --President-elect Trump blasted President Biden’s decision to block oil drilling across large swaths of the U.S.’s coastlines, saying he will “unban it.” “It’s ridiculous; I’ll unban it immediately,” Trump said during an interview Monday with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. However, it’s not totally clear whether he’ll be able to do so. During his previous term, Trump tried to reinstate drilling in areas blocked off by former President Obama, but he was blocked from doing so in court. In 2019, a judge ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. Nevertheless, in the interview with Hewitt, Trump asserted he would be able to reverse Biden’s action. “I have the right to unban it immediately,” he said. “When I see somebody saying he’s going to ban 625 million acres, he doesn’t know what that is. He doesn’t even know what 625 million acres would look like, and we can’t let that happen to our country,” Trump added. Biden’s move to ban new drilling in more than 625 million acres represents the largest-ever area where a president has blocked drilling. However, Biden’s move applies to areas that have low, if any, levels of offshore drilling. It did not apply to the central and western Gulf of Mexico where most U.S. offshore drilling occurs.
What to know about Biden’s new offshore drilling restrictions - President Biden’s move to bar drilling across the U.S.’s East and West coasts, while splashy, may not have significant climate or energy impacts in the years ahead. Because very little oil and gas is drilled in these places to begin with, the move is mostly symbolic — at least in the near term. On Monday, Biden barred new drilling off the East and West coasts of the U.S. and in a portion of Alaska and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The move leaves the central and western Gulf of Mexico in play. The action received significant political attention, garnering praise from environmentalists and being decried by industry and Republicans. But its actual effects are expected to be limited because very little offshore drilling actually occurs outside the Gulf. “I think the overall impact of the drilling ban on future U.S. production levels will be rather small,” said Andrew Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, in an email. He noted the Gulf of Mexico is the area “where oil producers want to drill since it is most likely to contain commercially recoverable amounts of oil and natural gas.” Meanwhile, there is currently no drilling off the Atlantic Coast and some sparse drilling off the Pacific Coast. Lipow said he believes the industry has little interest in drilling off the coast of California due to its “adversarial relationship with the oil industry” and noted that the hurdles for the East Coast are even higher. “Even if the industry decided to drill in that area today, they must contend with building pipeline and receiving infrastructure to on shore facilities in states that already have significant local opposition,” he wrote. In the near-term, the government does not have any plans to sell the rights to drill anywhere except for the Gulf. While these plans are likely to be revised by Trump, it’s not clear whether he would plan to open up the areas blocked by Biden in the immediate future, or whether the industry has an appetite to drill there. “The industry’s near-term focus has been the Gulf of Mexico,” said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, which represents both offshore oil and gas and offshore wind companies. “We’ve got a lot of major projects coming online. We still have some running room for the Gulf of Mexico to discover more resources and bring more oil and gas online,” he said. However, Milito said he opposes Biden’s move because in the long term, “you’ve got to find new places to find and discover oil and gas.” “The Pacific is understood to contain massive amounts of oil,” he said. “We just want to make sure that we’re not taking options off the table for the long term.” For his part, Trump has condemned the move, vowing to “unban it immediately.” However, any bid to do so could face legal hurdles. During his previous term, Trump tried to resume drilling in areas blocked off by former President Obama, but he was prevented from doing so in court. In 2019, a judge ruled the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. But it’s not clear whether any future court decisions will follow the same logic, with Trump and his allies saying the incoming president does have the right to reverse Biden. “We don’t see any reason why the president shouldn’t have the authority to amend or rescind these types of decisions,” Milito said.
Trump lashes out at transition as Biden pushes policies - President-elect Trump is ripping President Biden over what he says is a difficult transition period, expressing frustration with the current president for still seeking to set policies that fly in the face of what he would support.Trump has railed against Biden, particularly after he issued executive orders to restrict offshore drilling on the East and West coasts, with Trump claiming such acts make the changeover hard because it gives him more work to undo. “Trump’s view is that we won and you should just lay down, surrender your arms,” a source close to Trump world said.Biden, in a USA Today interview this week, said he asked Trump not to try to “settle scores” during their first meeting to start the presidential transition in November. And the president said Trump even praised him, especially on his work on the economy.But after the president made moves to protect his legacy before leaving office, particularly when it comes to the environment, Trump began railing about his soon-to-be predecessor.“Biden is doing everything possible to make the TRANSITION as difficult [as] possible, from Lawfare such as has never been seen before, to costly and ridiculous Executive Orders on the Green New Scam and other money wasting Hoaxes,” Trump said on Truth Social.The source close to Trump world said the clash represents each man holding their ground.“The Bidens have decided that they’re not going to turn the keys over, meaning around power and authority to exercise their decision-making until the actual [transition] of power,” the source said.“From Trump’s point of view, any continued regulatory activity, decision-making that Biden does is more complicated. But from the Biden perspective, they’re just doing what they get to do is because they are still president,” the source added.
Immigration firebrand takes reins of the Hispanic Caucus - Latino Democrats, under new management for the 119th Congress, are looking to flex their muscle under a razor-thin Republican House majority that could make or break President-elect Trump’s immigration agenda. Last week, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), known for his immigration advocacy, took the reins of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC), a group he says is ready to engage on a host of policy issues but determined to play a central role on immigration. “We’re not just about immigration, but immigration is an emblematic issue that’s joined at the hip to the Latino Caucus. So no matter how much someone tries to say that we’re not connected there, we are. Because nationally it’s seen that way, and because the vast majority of people that are impacted by immigration issues are Hispanic or Latino descent,” Espaillat told The Hill. “So whatever proposal the administration brings forward, I think we will be a key element in the response to that, whether it is educating our community to make sure that they know their rights, providing funding for legal services, combating any practices that may be seen [as] or that are inhumane, creating the ambience and the atmosphere where there could be some agreement, and some things that benefit immigrants, like, for example, Dreamers or even farmworkers or family reunification or TPS [Temporary Protected Status] recipients,” he added. Though CHC chairs all deal intimately with immigration, the group has rarely been led by a member as close to the issue as Espaillat. Outgoing Chair Nanette Díaz Barragán (D-Calif.), who fought Democratic leadership last year over the group’s exclusion from the doomed Senate border deal, made her name on energy, environment and health care issues. Her predecessor, Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Calif.) is an emergency room physician and rural health advocate; Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) is most closely identified with foreign policy, intelligence and diversity and inclusion work; and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is best known for her work with elder care and land management. But Espaillat’s fellow Democrats and CHC members have seen him go to the mattresses on immigration. In 2021, he and Reps. Jesús “Chuy” García (D-Ill.) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.) became known as the “three amigos” when they threatened to tank budget talks unless House Democrats included immigration provisions in a reconciliation bill that required no Republican buy-in. The three amigos’ red line irked some Democrats and CHC members, including then-Chair Ruiz, who favored a more conciliatory approach to avoid highlighting a rift between progressives and centrists in the party. At the time, the main ask was to include an update to the registry — a sort of statute of limitations for undocumented immigration — in the budget, a provision that could have allowed millions of immigrants lacking permanent legal status who don’t have criminal records to apply for permanent citizenship. The Senate parliamentarian eventually blocked that move on a technicality, but Espaillat, García and Correa forced House Democrats to take an unprecedented risk on immigration. “We got [then-Speaker Nancy] Pelosi [D-Calif.] to include it,” Espaillat said. “It was tough to get her there, but I think it took us to take a tough stand and to sort of like draw a line in the sand. … You know, we were disappointed that the Senate was not able to carry through on that, but at least our leadership acknowledged it and included it, and so that was a step in the right direction.” But Espaillat, the third foreign-born CHC chair after Ruiz and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), knows the CHC’s asks and tactics will have to adjust under the new Trump administration. “I mean, registry is sort of like the simple fix, right? And it’s one that will capture a significant number of people. I don’t know if this administration will accept registry,” he said. “I think that there’s a possibility that they can accept some things, and I’m open to have a discussion with them on things that may be practical and achievable.”
President Biden signs bipartisan outdoor recreation bill into law -President Biden on Monday signed a bipartisan bill aimed at boosting outdoor recreation weeks after it cleared the Senate. The bill, the Expanding Public Lands Outdoor Recreation Experiences Act, will expand opportunities for Americans in public outdoor spaces like national parks and forests. Its provisions include improved access for disabled people and military veterans, protections for rock climbing, better access to public lands and waters for recreational purposes and abridged permitting processes and reduced fees for small businesses that depend on public lands. It also officially allows for the use of fixed rock-climbing anchors, resolving an earlier controversy in which some areas sought to restrict such anchors in national forest and park areas. The bill passed the Republican-majority House by voice vote in April, with Natural Resources Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) co-sponsoring. In December, amid the House’s struggle to pass legislation to fund the U.S. government, the bill passed the Senate by unanimous consent. “This influential bipartisan legislation will create new opportunities for climbers and bikers, increase access for veterans and service members, support small businesses and communities in the outdoor recreation economy and help modernize and improve visitor experiences,” Westerman said following the December passage. “I’m proud to support this legislation and thankful for all the hard work leading to this incredible win.” The relatively noncontroversial nature of the legislation stands in contrast to another natural resources-related move by the White House Monday, when Biden announced he would impose new restrictions on offshore oil drilling. President-elect Trump vowed to undo the move upon taking office, while Westerman said the newly seated Congress “will use every tool, including reconciliation, to restore and unleash these revenues, fueling conservation, coastal resilience, and energy independence, and ensuring America—not OPEC, Russia or China—leads the world.”
Social Security Fairness Act signed into law by Biden: What to know - President Biden signed legislation into law over the weekend to expand Social Security benefits for droves of Americans. The measure, dubbed the Social Security Fairness Act, repeals two tax rules that proponents say have unfairly reduced benefits for many Americans who also receive government pensions. But experts are sounding alarm over its expected price tag and raising questions of fairness around the legislation. The legislation would repeal decades-old tax rules known as the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) that have reduced Social Security benefits for workers that receive pensions and for their spouses. Experts say the provisions are aimed at preventing some beneficiaries from collecting higher Social Security benefits than earned. But critics of the rules say the measures are flawed and have led to unfair reductions for many people.While most jobs are covered by Social Security, many Americans have worked in state and local government jobs that fall outside of that coverage — and have been able to earn a pension instead. That includes those in teaching professions, police officers, firefighters and others who have worked in public service. Because Social Security runs on a progressive benefits formula, those on the lower end of the income spectrum who worked much of their career in jobs paying into the program earn higher benefits relative to their income. But experts say issues come about when calculating Social Security benefits for someone who has spent much of their life in employment not covered by the program.. “So, when you work at those jobs, you’re not paying into Social Security, not paying Social Security taxes, your employer doesn’t pay into Social Security taxes.” “Then when this person leaves that state and local job and then works in the private sector, they’re, let’s say, only in the private sector for 10 years, Social Security sees those 10 years of earnings, but when they’re computing lifetime earnings, they’re dividing it by 35 years,” he said. “And so it looks really small, and so, as a result, they’re getting a 90 percent replacement rate.” Proponents have cheered the legislation as a long time in coming, panning the rules as outdated while championing the measure as a victory for public servants. “In 2003, I held the first-ever Senate hearing on the WEP and the GPO, and I am pleased that with today’s signing of the Social Security Fairness Act, these unfair provisions in our Social Security system have finally been repealed,” Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), who authored the Senate version of the bill, said in a statement over the weekend. Collins, whose office said the law will ensure 25,000 Mainers receive their “earned” benefits, also attended the White House’s recent bill signing ceremony, where President Biden also lauded the measure. “The bill I’m signing today is about a simple proposition,” Biden said. “Americans who have worked hard all their lives to earn an honest living should be able to retire with economic security and dignity.”According to the Congressional Research Service, more than 2 million beneficiaries were affected by the WEP as of December 2023. That same month, nearly 746,000 also saw their benefits reduced under the GPO. Behind those numbers, reports of improper payments have helped fuel calls for reforms. The Office of the Inspector General for the Social Security Administration (SSA) said that the agency disclosed it “made more than $457 million in improper payments related to WEP and GPO” in August 2022. The watchdog also said it discovered in 2011 that the SSA had “overpaid about 24,900 beneficiaries approximately $623.8 million because they were receiving non-covered pensions from state or local governments, but SSA had not reduced their benefits.”Fiscal hawks have sharply criticized the legislation in recent months, while citing a projection from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating the move would cost upward of $190 billion over a decade. The CBO also projected in a letter late last year that Social Security’s trust funds could “be exhausted roughly half a year earlier than it would be under current law” if the measure were made law.“First of all, $200 billion is a lot of money over 10 years, right?” Chris Towner, policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in an interview, calling the estimate “significant.” He also raised concerns about the impact the legislation could have on Social Security’s funds. The board of trustees for the program’s accounts said last year that the depletion date for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which pays out Social Security benefits to retirees, and the program’s smaller Disability Insurance Trust Fund will be 2035. “Six months maybe wasn’t an issue 20 years ago, but the fact that we’re only nine years away now, yeah, I mean, that’s a pretty big issue,” Towner said. “Actually, we’re closer now. We’re like eight and a half years away because of this bill.” “I mean, the closer we get to Social Security, the harder it’s going to be to prevent the kind of steep benefit cuts, or prevent really steep tax increases from having to happen immediately.”
Trump denies Washington Post report on tariff plans -President-elect Trump is denying a report in The Washington Post that outlines how his top aides are exploring a tariff plan that would only cover critical imports. The Post report cites three sources familiar with the plans saying they would “pare back the most sweeping elements of Trump’s campaign plans” but would still be likely to “upend global trade” if implemented. Trump, in a post on his Truth Social website on Monday, railed against the newspaper over the story. “The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back,” Trump wrote. “That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it’s wrong. It’s just another example of Fake News.” A spokesperson for the Post did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump’s tirade against the outlet comes as the Post reels from a number of key staff departures and lingering questions over its coverage of the incoming administration. Jeff Bezos, the Post’s billionaire owner, controversially decided to kill an editorial backing Vice President Harris weeks before November’s election, while his company Amazon is among the tech giants who have given $1 million to Trump’s inauguration. One of the Post’s cartoonists quit last week, accusing her bosses of blocking a cartoon that showed Bezos and other tech billionaires kneeling before Trump.
Dollar Surges On CNN Report Trump Considering National Emergency Declaration To Justify New Tariffs --It has not even been two days since the Washington Post published its attempt to manipulate the dollar lower by claiming, falsely, that Trump intends to water down his sanctions, when moments ago the dollar soared on what is most likely another piece of fake news - and also just as likely another attempt by hedge fund "sources" to manipulate the FX market - when CNN reported that Trump "is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries." And unlike the WaPo's "three" so-called sources, in the quest for anonymous BS supremacy CNN went to cite a whopping "four sources familiar with the matter."According to the report, which is likely just as "real" as the WaPo's fake news, the emergency declaration will allow Trump - who is pursuing a rebalancng of global balance of trade in his second term - to construct a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, known as “IEEPA,” which unilaterally authorizes a president to manage imports during a national emergency.Trump, one of the sources noted, has a fondness for the law, since it grants wide-ranging jurisdiction over how tariffs are implemented without strict requirements to prove the tariffs are needed on national security grounds.“Nothing is off the table,” said a second source familiar with the matter, acknowledging the robust discussion over declaring a national emergency that has taken place.Of course, none of this is actually news! But sadly algos have a 15 millisecond memory so it all sounds exciting and grandiose to them. In 2019, Trump used IEEPA to threaten a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports that would rise to 25% if Mexico declined to take action to reduce the number of undocumented immigrants crossing the border with the United States. After Mexican officials traveled to Washington for a week of in-person negotiations – and an agreement was reached to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” immigration policy – the tariffs were never implemented. But the specter of the potential action, predicated by a national emergency Trump had declared on the southern border three months earlier, led prominent business lobbying groups like the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable to prepare lawsuits challenging the legality of such a move.Trump’s advisers are evaluating the possibility of using section 338 of US trade law, which allows a president to impose “new or additional duties” against countries deemed to be discriminating against the commerce of the United States. In those cases, trade law permits the president to impose new tariffs in direct reciprocation against those countries in specific product categories – though it’s been untested in recent history.They’re also considering revisiting the trade law – known as section 301 – that ushered in Trump’s initial tariffs on China on national security grounds. The Biden administration left the vast majority of Trump’s tariffs in place – and increased tariffs on certain products like electric vehicles – providing a basis for the incoming president to increase or adjust the tariffs as he sees fit. But implementing tariffs under this statute requires a government investigation, and companies affected by the changes often lobby for months to be excluded from the levies.
GOP Homeland Security chair: Drone bill a top priority in next Congress -Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, said a bill empowering local authorities to take down drones is a “number one” priority in the next Congress.In an interview on Friday that he shared Monday, Green said federal agencies were not being transparent on the issue of drones, criticism that follows a high-profile series of drone sightings over New Jersey before the holidays.“I will tell you that from our standpoint in Congress, passing my drone bill to grant authority to local law enforcement and states to take down drones … it’s gonna be one of my number one priorities for next Congress,” Green told Dan Mandis on Nashville radio station WWTN, which heclipped for a post on the social platform X.“We know that Chinese nationals have operated drones inside of our country. We still need transparency on this issue and we’re not getting it. My Counter-UAS Authority Security, Safety, and Reauthorization Act that grants authority to local and state law enforcement to take down drones needs to be passed,” Green captioned the post.Mass reports of drone sightings, especially in the Northeast, have recently caught the nation’s attention. In mid-December, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), FBI, Department of Defense and Federal Aviation Administration released a joint statement in which they said recent drone sightings included a combination of “lawful” drones, other aircraft and stars.The statement also said that the FBI had received more than 5,000 reports of drone sightings in weeks prior, though only a small fraction merited follow-up.Last month, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blocked an attempt by his Democratic colleagues to pass legislation to give resources and authority to state and local authorities to track mysterious drones.The Kentucky Republican argued that the bill would have widened the government’s powers of surveillance, while he downplayed worries about the drones’ threat to the public. “This body must not rush to grant sweeping surveillance powers without proper consideration and debate by the committees of jurisdiction,” Paul said.
CIA releases docs on Latino civil rights-era surveillance -The CIA monitored Mexican American and Puerto Rican civil rights activists fighting for equal education and to honor the late Martin Luther King, Jr., — and against police brutality and the Vietnam War, newly released CIA documents show.The documents confirm Latino civil rights pioneers' long-held suspicions that the federal government was monitoring — even disrupting — their activities.The documents from 1968 to 1983 were released in late December deep on the CIA's website at the request of Reps. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) and Jimmy Gomez (D-CA). The cache of documents gives a glimpse into how the CIA viewed activists' work as threats.That includes Denver-based activist Rodolfo "Corky" Gonzales and farmworker union leader Cesar Chavez. Documents also show how the CIA sought to keep tabs on Mexican American student activists in Arizona, California and Colorado, even having undercover agents infiltrate student groups. The documents primarily relate to Operation CHAOS — a CIA domestic espionage project targeting American citizens that operated under former Presidents Johnson and Nixon. The CIA kept close tabs on Gonzales, a leader in the radical Chicano Movement of the 1970s, as he pressed for equal rights and called for "the potential formation of independent local, regional, and national Chicano political parties," documents show.Like the Black Power Movement, the Chicano Movement focused on racial pride, nationalism and fighting poverty. The CIA also was monitoring if Chavez would attend demonstrations organized by the Southern Christian Leadership Conference in New York City on the 3rd anniversary of King's 1968 assassination. The CIA was following Salvatore H. Castro, a teacher and advisor in the 1968 Los Angeles high school walkouts over discrimination. The agency also tracked members of the Brown Berets, a Chicano militant group. Documents show the CIA and the University of Arizona had an agreement to monitor students apparently making demands for Mexican American studies classes. University of Arizona spokesman Mieczyslaw J. "Mitch" Zak did not immediately have a comment about the newly released documents after Axios sent him a link. "This document release is an important window into the government's efforts to surveil and disrupt peaceful Latino organizing in the 1960s and 1970s," Castro said in a statement to Axios."I'm hopeful that these documents will help us build a better record of past overreach and establish stronger guardrails to protect against unwarranted surveillance in the future." The FBI has not released any documents on Latino civil rights leaders as requested by Castro. Historians in recent years have uncovered quite a bit about FBI surveillance of Latino leaders through open records requests, Brian Behnken, an Iowa State University history professor, tells Axios.The FBI monitored the works of civil rights leader Héctor P. García; the New York-based Puerto Rican Young Lords Party; and later the activities of the Chicano Movement. Works by scholars and activists over the years have also uncovered that the FBI has monitored Chicano Movement leaders Gonzales, Reies López Tijerina, José Angel Gutiérrez, and Dolores Huerta. Little was known about how active the CIA was involved in monitoring Latino civil rights groups and leaders.Some Latino leaders and their families may not even know about the FBI files and wouldn't know they needed to file open records requests. Castro's mother, Rosie Castro, was monitored by the FBI for her activities in the Chicano Movement, files show.An FBI informant noted that Rosie Castro "was observed buying two small posters of Angela Davis for 50 cents each, which were mentioned by Rosie Castro as having been printed in Cuba," the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Congress formally certifies Trump election win - Congress on Monday certified President-elect Trump’s electoral victory, officially cementing his win over Vice President Harris ahead of his inauguration with no objections from any lawmakers as a tally of states was read on the House floor. Trump captured the presidency with 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 — a total that was confirmed during the certification on Monday, marking the final step in the election process before Trump formally takes back the White House on Jan. 20. Republicans gave a standing ovation in the chamber when Harris announced Trump’s victory was now certified. A bipartisan standing ovation broke out in the House chamber after Harris declared the joint session of Congress dissolved. The event lasted about 30 minutes before Harris gaveled it out. Harris presided over the event, donning a business-like or expressionless demeanor and refrained from any applause. The proceedings went off without a hitch. Unlike Trump’s 2016 win, no Democratic lawmakers attempted to block certification of his victory. A number of lawmakers aided in the count, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). Vice President-elect JD Vance was also seated in the chamber during the count. The proceedings also marked a full 180-degree turn from four years ago, when rioters stormed the Capitol to try and halt the certification of President Biden’s victory over Trump, who had spent weeks pushing false claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent. Trump, who four years ago stewed in the White House and opted not to speak out or intervene as the violence unfolded, spent Monday at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida as the certification played out without much fanfare. The president-elect called it a “big moment in history” hours before lawmakers arrived to certify the results. In a video released ahead of the certification, Harris hailed the “peaceful transfer of power” as a bedrock of U.S. democracy, calling her duty a “sacred obligation.” “As we have seen, our democracy can be fragile,” Harris said. “And it is up to each of us to stand up for our most cherished principles.” Despite the affair being largely symbolic, there was some drama surrounding the event. A snowstorm hit Washington overnight, creating headaches for lawmakers trying to return to the Capitol for the certification. The certification had to go forward as changing the date due to the weather would have required a new law; the Jan. 6 date is written into federal statute. Capitol Hill was also on high alert after the events of four years ago, with fencing erected around the Capitol complex and a visibly higher presence of police throughout Senate and House office buildings and the Capitol itself.
FBI Is Still Hiding Details Of Russiagate, Newly Released Document Shows - As Donald Trump re-enters the White House on a pledge to end national security state overreach, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is still hiding critical details on the Russia conspiracy investigation that engulfed his first term. In response to a Freedom of Information request filed by RealClearInvestigations in August 2022, the FBI on Dec. 31, more than two years later, released a heavily redacted copy of the document that opened an explosive and unprecedented counterintelligence probe of the sitting president as an agent of the Russian government. The Electronic Communication, dated May 16, 2017, claimed to have an “articulable factual basis” to suspect that Trump “wittingly or unwittingly” was illegally acting on behalf of Russia, and accordingly posing “threats to the national security of the United States.” The FBI’s “goal,” it added, was “to determine if President Trump is or was directed by, controlled by, and/or coordinated activities with, the Russian Federation.” It additionally sought to uncover whether Trump and unnamed “others” obstructed “any associated FBI investigation” – a reference to Crossfire Hurricane, the initial FBI inquiry into the Trump campaign’s suspected cooperation with an alleged Russian interference plot in the 2016 election. While Crossfire Hurricane, which was formally opened on July 31, 2016, had by that point focused on members of Trump’s orbit, the May 2017 probe was specifically targeted at the president himself during his fourth month in office. The investigation of Trump was undertaken at the behest of then-acting FBI director Andrew McCabe, one week after Trump had fired his former boss and mentor, James B. Comey. According to the declassified document, McCabe’s decision was approved by FBI Assistant Director Bill Priestap, who had also signed off on the opening of Crossfire Hurricane; and Jim Baker, the FBI general counsel. Baker was a longtime friend of Michael Sussmann, a lawyer for the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton, and a key figure in the dissemination of Clinton-funded disinformation to the FBI that falsely tied Trump to Russia. In his FBI role, Baker personally circulated the conspiracy theory, manufactured by “researchers” working with the Clinton campaign, that the Trump campaign and Russia were communicating via a secret server. After leaving the FBI, Baker served as deputy general counsel at Twitter, where he backed the company’s censorship of reporting on the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop, based on yet another conspiracy theory that the laptop files were Russian disinformation. As with Crossfire Hurricane, the May 2017 case was opened as a Foreign Agents Registration Act investigation, and also deemed a “Sensitive Investigative Matter” to reflect Trump’s status as the nation’s top public official. The FBI document indicates that it was launched as a full investigation, which would have granted investigators targeting Trump with sweeping surveillance powers. While the declassified document records the FBI’s theory that then-President Trump might be involved in illegal – and potentially treasonous – behavior, the “articulable factual basis” for this suspicion is redacted. Only a few paragraphs of the six-page document have not been withheld.
Democrats under fire for not sounding alarm on Biden earlier --Democratic leaders and lawmakers are coming under growing scrutiny for not blowing the whistle sooner on what is widely perceived to be President Biden’s decline during the final two years of his presidency. Some Democrats fear there is going to be a lot more talk as members of their party wrestle over what went wrong in the 2024 election and how to chart a course going forward. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), who in February dismissed talk about a decline in Biden’s mental and physical fitness as “right-wing propaganda,” was challenged over the weekend by NBC’s Kristen Welker. Welker put the question bluntly to Schumer by asking whether he “and other top Democrats misled” Americans about Biden’s “mental acuity.” “Look, we didn’t,” Schumer answered tersely, before defending Biden’s record and character. “The legislation we passed, one of the most significant groups of legislation since Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society,” Schumer said, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act, which included a host of energy and climate provisions. “Putting in 235 judges [on the federal bench], a record. And he’s a patriot, he’s a great guy,” Schumer added. A handful of Democratic senators are now warning that there will be more calls for answers and accountability given that Biden’s condition became a glaring problem after he muddled through the first presidential debate against now President-elect Trump. “I think it’s coming, big time,” said one Democratic senator, who predicted a wave of recriminations against Democratic lawmakers for not asking tough questions earlier about Biden. The lawmaker argued that many Democrats in Congress were kept in the dark about Biden’s health and stamina. “The fairest statement about it is that we never saw him. Really. I don’t know how long ago it was the last time Biden came to the caucus,” the senator added. “I think he declined over that period of time.” But the senator said regardless of how much Democratic leaders really knew about Biden’s condition, Republicans successfully tagged Democrats as “corrupt” for not raising alarms sooner about the president’s fitness to serve a second term. “I do believe a very successful charge of corruption” was tagged onto the Democratic Party as voters wondered “what the f— are you talking about?” the senator said, referring to voters’ reactions to claims that Biden was fully fit to serve another four years in the Oval Office starting at age 82. Schumer and other Democrats who spent time with Biden at the White House or at special events, such as the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day in June, repeatedly vouched for his mental sharpness before his debate against Trump. “I talk to President Biden, you know, regularly, sometimes several times in a week, or usually several times in a week. His mental acuity is great. It’s fine. It’s as good as it’s been over the years,” Schumer declared in mid-February. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told The Hill in June that Biden seemed sharp and focused during the celebration of the allied invasion of Normandy that eventually liberated Western Europe from Nazi occupation. Blumenthal said at the time he wasn’t counting on a “plan B” in the election, but he correctly predicted that the debate would be a “really critical point” in the race. Blumenthal later said he was stunned by how badly Biden performed when he debated Trump only a few weeks after the D-Day anniversary. “I was really surprised by the performance at the debate,” the Connecticut senator said.
If They Don't Believe They're Enemies, Why Should You? --Caitlin Johnstone - Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix -- Trump and Obama were seen happily chatting and laughing together at the funeral for Jimmy Carter. If these guys don’t buy into the story that they are on opposite sides of a ferocious battle of existential importance between two wildly different ideologies, then why should you? I saw Alex Jones proclaiming on Twitter that “Elon Musk just took down the New World order!” One of the dumbest psyops in history is this idiotic faux populist faction being marketed to rightists which claims that a brave revolutionary movement is being led against the establishment by a plucky band of billionaires, defense contractors, Zionists, and DC swamp monsters.Trump says he’s “the best friend that Israel ever had.” Anyone who still believes this asshole presents a threat to the establishment is a drooling moron who deserves to have their feelings hurt.MAGA support for Israel invalidates damn near everything MAGA supposedly stands for. They shriek about antisemitism while denouncing woke identity politics and the weaponization of racism allegations, they want to shovel money into Israel while mocking Biden for funding Ukraine, they shout “America first” while prioritizing the interests of a foreign government on the other side of the planet, they claim to despise the mainstream media while swallowing every MSM propaganda lie about Gaza right down their throats with zero gag reflex, and they claim to want to end the wars while backing a country that cannot exist without nonstop war. These contradictions are possible because these people do not have any real values and don’t actually stand for anything; they’re just mindless, bootlicking sheep who think whatever the right wing pundits tell them to think.
House Democrats argue GOP Jan. 6 report defamed Liz Cheney -- A report from House Democrats is refuting GOP claims that former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) acted inappropriately by being in touch with star witness Cassidy Hutchinson, arguing a Republican report amounts to defamation.The Democrats’ report, released four years after the attack, comes after House Administration subcommittee Chair Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) urged an FBI investigation of Cheney for witness tampering.Democrats pointed to prior testimony from Hutchinson to the now-disbanded Jan. 6 committee as well as a previously unreported letter from her attorney indicating she had fired her former attorney before reaching out to Cheney.The two documents undercut GOP claims that Hutchinson was still represented by Stefan Passantino when the two women were in touch — conversations that could otherwise raise ethical questions.“Ms. Hutchinson made the independent decision to terminate her then-counsel of her own accord given the conflict of interest she perceived and represent herself because she did not believe Mr. Passantino was representing her best interests,” William Jordan, Hutchinson’s current attorney, wrote.The letter from Hutchinson’s attorney was submitted after America First Legal, a conservative nonprofit founded by Trump adviser Stephen Miller, filed a complaint against Cheney with the D.C. bar in October.Loudermilk’s recommendation for an investigation into Cheney would face numerous roadblocks, but the move nonetheless comes as President-elect Trump and others have called for retribution against the Wyoming Republican.The text messages in Loudermilk’s report show it was Hutchinson who first contacted Cheney.And while Speech and Debate Clause protections would likely forestall any prosecution of Cheney, who was a House lawmaker at the time, witness tampering charges would also be difficult to advance. The statute deals with those who pressure witnesses to provide false testimony.Though contacting a potential witness without their attorney could raise ethical concerns, Cheney advised Hutchinson to secure a new lawyer before returning to the committee to offer additional testimony.Hutchinson agreed to testify publicly in a blockbuster hearing after saying Passantino encouraged her to not be forthcoming with the panel.Administration Democrats called Loudermilk’s assertions “maliciously false” as well as “absurd” and said Speech and Debate Clause protection likewise shields him from what they said would otherwise be liability for defamation.“Vice Chair Cheney acted with integrity and professionalism when approached by a witness with relevant facts. After being informed that this witness was no longer represented by an attorney and that she wanted to provide the Select Committee with additional information while acting as her own attorney, the Vice Chair suggested that she consider retaining independent counsel before testifying again,” Administration Democrats wrote in their report.“This again demonstrates that Vice Chair Cheney was not involved in shaping Ms. Hutchinson’s testimony.” Loudermilk billed his report as a review of the “failures and politicization” of the panel. The Georgia lawmaker was also reviewed by the former committee after he gave Capitol tours to two men who later marched to the building on Jan. 6, 2021. “House Democrats still cannot admit reality. Their new report is an emotional retelling of the same narrative the Democrats, led by Liz Cheney and Nancy Pelosi, created in an attempt to legislatively prosecute Donald Trump,” Loudermilk said in a Monday statement. “I have spent the last two years uncovering the truth and they simply refuse to accept any element of it.”
Judge holds Rudy Giuliani in contempt in Georgia election workers case - A federal judge held Rudy Giuliani in civil contempt on Monday for failing to comply with court orders in two former Georgia election workers’ efforts to collect their $146 million defamation judgment. At the end of a two-day hearing that saw Giuliani take the stand, U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman agreed with the election workers that the former New York City mayor willfully disobeyed requirements to turn over information about his professional services and messaging accounts. “The only conclusion the court can draw, and the one which it does draw, is that defendant has been attempting to run the clock, thwarting plaintiff’s efforts to get plainly relevant information by stalling,” Liman announced from the bench. As punishment, Liman said he would draw a “narrower” adverse inference against the former New York City mayor and prevent Giuliani from offering certain evidence as he attempts to hold on to his Florida condo at trial later this month, but the judge said he would decide the full extent of sanctions later. The judge, an appointee of President-elect Trump, noted that Giuliani, once a close ally of Trump’s, was until recently a barred attorney and had previously failed to comply with court orders. “The motion comes against the backdrop of defendant ignoring his other discovery obligations. In this case, he knew of his discovery obligations and of the possible consequences of failing to comply with them,” Liman said. Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Shaye Moss, have waged a yearlong effort to collect on their $146 million defamation judgment they won at trial in December 2023 over Giuliani’s false claims that the duo engaged in mass election fraud while serving as election workers in Atlanta on election night in 2020. Giuliani has been forced to turn over some of his most prized possessions, including his Mercedes-Benz, watches and his New York City apartment. But the election workers, represented by law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, have said he is continuing to stall their efforts to collect his remaining, nonexempt assets, like other watches, critical ownership documents and a signed Joe DiMaggio jersey. “Willkie, Farr & Gallagher might be happy to fight to take away Mayor Giuliani’s most cherished personal belongings including his signed baseball jersey of his childhood hero and his grandfather’s pocket watch, but they can never take away his extraordinary record of public service, where he lifted more people out of poverty than any modern mayor, took down the Mafia, cleaned up Wall Street, saved New York City and comforted the nation following September 11th,” Giuliani spokesperson Ted Goodman said in a statement. At the center of the contempt hearing were Giuliani’s delays in turning over information about his professional services, phone numbers and other messaging accounts — information that could shed light on whether he is entitled to retain his Florida condo as his homestead. Giuliani took the stand for two days, once in person and once virtually, and faced questioning on whether he was defying the judge’s rulings. The mayor-turned-Trump attorney contended he is substantially complying with the court-ordered turnover of his assets and is working to hand over what is left. Explaining the delays, Giuliani has cited being bogged down with his other pending legal battles and a breakdown in his relationship with his now-former attorneys, who withdrew after accusing Giuliani of refusing to cooperate in providing electronic discovery to the election workers in their collection efforts. Giuliani’s new attorney, Joseph Cammarata, contested the attorneys’ narrative at the conclusion of Monday’s hearing, instead insisting his client was working to comply. “I respectfully submit to the court to not hold the defendant in contempt, to sanction the defendant for any lack of production, of discovery responses, because documents were produced, interrogatories were answered, and dozens of items in response the documents were turned over to plaintiff,” Cammarata said.
Hush money judge refuses to delay Trump’s criminal sentencing - The New York judge who oversaw President-elect Trump’s criminal trial this spring declined his request to pause Friday’s sentencing, setting up a last-minute appellate battle as he seeks to stave off the proceeding. Trump could still attempt to have an appeals court step in as his attorneys argue Judge Juan Merchan was wrong to reject Trump’s presidential immunity claims and uphold the conviction in his hush money criminal case. “This Court has considered Defendant’s arguments in support of his motion and finds that they are for the most part, a repetition of the arguments he has raised numerous times in the past,” Merchan wrote in Monday’s ruling. In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels so she would keep an alleged affair, which he denies, secret ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Merchan, who oversees the trial proceedings, had agreed to Trump’s requests to delay his sentencing until after the election. The judge rescheduled it for Friday after rejecting Trump’s efforts to toss the case over his separate immunity claims as a former president and president-elect. Though Merchan said he is inclined to impose no jail time or punishment, the trajectory would keep Trump’s criminal conviction intact and make him the first felon to assume the presidency on Inauguration Day, now just two weeks away. Trump’s attorneys are seeking to block that scenario, demanding the sentencing be put on hold as they appeal Merchan’s recent rulings. Trump filed the first of two expected appeals Monday afternoon.“Justice Merchan is without authority under the law to proceed to sentencing while President Trump exercises his federal constitutional right to challenge these rulings, and the erroneous jury verdict in the underlying criminal case must be vacated and the charges against President Trump must be dismissed with prejudice, without further delay,” Trump’s attorneys wrote. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office pushed back, noting in court filings Monday that Trump had asked for the delays and that wrapping up the case now with a sentencing the president-elect wouldn’t be required to attend in person wouldn’t interfere with his presidency. “There is no risk here of an ‘extended proceeding’ that impairs the discharge of defendant’s official duties — duties he does not possess before January 20, 2025 in any event,” prosecutors wrote. Trump’s ask for a delay comes as only days remain until he retakes the White House. Legal experts largely agree that, at minimum, the proceedings can’t move forward after the inauguration.
New York appeals court denies Trump bid to halt hush money sentencing (Reuters) - A New York appellate court on Tuesday denied President-elect Donald Trump's bid to halt sentencing set for Friday for his conviction on criminal charges stemming from hush money paid to a porn star. Associate Justice Ellen Gesmer of the Appellate Division, a mid-level state appeals court, made the decision after holding a hearing on Trump's last-ditch effort to block the trial judge's ruling on Monday to proceed with the sentencing, scheduled for 10 days before his inauguration. In his Monday ruling, Justice Juan Merchan rejected a request from Trump's lawyers to delay the sentencing while they appealed two of the judge's previous rulings upholding the Manhattan jury's May guilty verdict on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The judge called Trump's delay request mostly "a repetition of the arguments he has raised numerous times in the past." In scheduling Trump's sentencing for Friday, Merchan said he was not inclined to send Trump to prison. The judge said a sentence of unconditional discharge, effectively putting a judgment of guilt on his record without a fine or probation, would be the most practical approach given Trump's looming return to the presidency. In the half-hour hearing over Trump's request for a delay on Tuesday afternoon in Manhattan, Gesmer pressed Trump lawyer Todd Blanche on his argument that a sitting president's immunity from prosecution extends to the transition period between winning the election and inauguration. "Do you have any support for the notion that presidential immunity extends to a president elect?" Gesmer asked. Blanche replied, "There has never been a case like this before, so no." But Blanche raised the prospect of Justice Juan Merchan, the trial judge, imposing a prison sentence that extended past the Jan. 20 inauguration despite the judge's indication that he would not do so. "I don't find that hypothetical very helpful," Gesmer said, asking Blanche to focus on his arguments related to presidential immunity. Gesmer asked a lawyer for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office, which brought the case, to address Trump's argument that the sentencing would interfere with the presidential transition. Steven Wu, the state lawyer, said Merchan had addressed those issues by scheduling sentencing before the inauguration, by allowing Trump to appear virtually and by indicating he would not send Trump to prison. Wu also noted that the sentencing had initially been scheduled for July had been delayed multiple times at Trump's request, arguing it was "disingenuous" for Trump to now claim the timing of sentencing was impractical. Gesmer appeared to agree. "If he was concerned about this issue he could've easily had this proceeding go forward in July, in September," Gesmer said. In a one-line written decision issued about a half hour after the hearing ended, Gesmer wrote, "After consideration of the papers submitted and the extensive oral argument, (Trump's) application for an interim stay is denied." 'I DID NOTHING WRONG' In an apparent reference to Merchan, Trump said a "crooked judge" in New York was complicating a smooth transition. "Remember, this is a man that said he wants the transition to be smooth," Trump told reporters on Tuesday before the hearing began. "Well, you don't do the kind of things. You don't have a judge working real hard to try and embarrass you, because I did nothing wrong." The case stemmed from a $130,000 payment that Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet before the 2016 election about a sexual encounter she said she had a decade earlier with Trump, who denies it. Trump, a Republican, defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in that election. Trump has argued that Bragg, a Democrat, brought the case to harm his 2024 election bid. Bragg has said that his office routinely brings felony falsification of business records charges. The hush money case made Trump the first U.S. president - sitting or former - to be charged with a crime and also the first to be convicted. Since the verdict, his lawyers have made two unsuccessful attempts to have the case tossed. Merchan previously rejected their argument that the U.S. Supreme Court's July decision in a separate criminal case against Trump that presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts meant the hush money case must be dismissed. Merchan ruled that the hush money case concerned Trump's personal conduct. After Trump won the November election, his lawyers argued that having the case hang over him while serving as president would impede his ability to govern. Merchan denied that bid, writing that overturning the jury's verdict would be an affront to the rule of law.
Trump Asks Supreme Court To Halt Sentencing In Hush Money Case -- Donald Trump petitioned the US Supreme Court to postpone his sentencing in the Stormy Daniels/hush money case, scheduled for Friday, Jan. 10. This move comes after a New York appeals courts rejected his requests for a delay, including a recent denial from the state’s appeals court, the Epoch Times reported.This move comes after New York courts rejected his requests for a delay, including a recent denial from the state’s appeals court.Trump’s legal team filed an emergency request with the nation’s highest court on Wednesday, arguing that proceeding with the sentencing could cause “grave injustice and harm to the institution of the Presidency and the operations of the federal government,” according to The Associated Press.The Supreme Court requested a response from New York prosecutors by Thursday.The case, presided over by New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, resulted in Trump’s conviction in May 2024 on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Merchan has indicated that he does not intend to impose jail time, fines, or probation at the sentencing, and in fact the only reason for the sentencing is so CNN/MSNBC can officially claim that Trump is a convicted felon.
Lead Trump documents prosecutor leaves DOJ --A lead prosecutor on the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) prosecution into President-elect Trump’s mishandling of documents at Mar-a-Lago has retired from the department.Jay Bratt left the DOJ on Friday after 34 years of working for the department, a spokesperson confirmed.Bratt was a senior national security prosecutor who worked on the Mar-a-Lago documents case in its earliest stages, later working on detail in special counsel Jack Smith’s office.Bratt and Smith formally transferred the Mar-a-Lago case to federal prosecutors based in Florida just before the end of the year.Authorities found more than 300 documents with classified markings when they searched Trump’s home in 2022 after making multiple requests that he return boxes of documents from his presidency. They later filed charges against Trump for violating the Espionage Act by retaining classified records and obstruction of justice charges for seeking to hide the documents from the Justice Department. Smith’s team moved to dismiss the charges against Trump without prejudice, citing DOJ policy barring prosecution of a sitting president.The case continues, however, for Trump’s two co-defendants: valet Walt Nauta and Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos de Oliveira.Prosecutors have appealed a lower court ruling from Judge Aileen Cannon tossing the case after she determined Smith was unlawfully appointed. Bratt’s role in the case sparked various investigations by House Republicans.Bratt self-reported complaints from Nauta’s attorney Stanley Woodward, who accused Bratt of bringing up his interest in a judicial nomination as a pressure tactic. Bratt has called the allegation false and later said he was simply noting Woodward’s involvement with a commission that handles judicial nominations. “Bratt mentioned this to Woodward early in their meeting purely as a matter of professional courtesy and only to indicate to Woodward that he understood that Woodward must have a good reputation. Nothing more was intended,” Smith’s team wrote in court filings last August.Prosecutors also noted Woodward did not raise a complaint about the incident for another nine months, as he was informed his client was considered a target.That matter is now being reviewed by the DOJ’s Office of Professional Responsibility.The House Judiciary Committee likewise initiated their own probe over the matter and have similarly asked about a trip Bratt made to the White House to interview an aide in the case.
Trump-Appointed Judge Orders Biden DOJ to Conceal Jack Smith Report -Aileen Cannon, a Trump-appointed federal judge in Florida, ordered the Justice Department on Tuesday to temporarily withhold from the American public special counsel Jack Smith's final report on his investigations into the president-elect, despite questions about her authority to do so.Cannon's order came in response to a Monday request by President-elect Donald Trump's longtime valet Walt Nauta and Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira, who are facing charges in a classified documents case brought by Smith. Trump was also charged in the classified documents probe, but Smith dropped the case against the Republican leader after he won the 2024 presidential election.In their filing on Monday, Nauta and De Oliveira's attorneys called on Cannon to bar the release of Smith's final report, even though the classified documents case is currently before the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta—not Cannon's court. The Justice Department is appealing Cannon's decision last summer to dismiss the classified documents case as the agency pursues charges against Nauta and De Oliveira.Cannon wrote in her order Tuesday that Attorney General Merrick Garland, Smith, and other Justice Department employees are enjoined from "releasing, sharing, or transmitting" Smith's final report or "any drafts of such report" outside the DOJ. The judge said her order would remain in effect until the 11th Circuit rules on Nauta and De Oliveira's motion to prohibit the release of Smith's report.Barbara McQuade, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School, said in an appearance on MSNBC that she doesn't believe Cannon has "any jurisdiction" over decisions surrounding Smith's report."But delay is the name of the game here," she added. "If they can just stop the clock until January 20th, then... the attorney general will be a Trump appointee and they can kill the whole thing and say, 'There's no report to disclose.' So that's the goal here."
Jack Smith resigns from DOJ amid fight over Trump reports -- Special Counsel Jack Smith formally resigned from the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Friday, a detail buried in a court filing as DOJ pushes to release his final report on his investigation into President-elect Trump. “The Special Counsel completed his work and submitted his final confidential report on January 7, 2025, and separated from the Department on January 10,” DOJ officials wrote in a footnote in a Saturday court filing. Smith signaled in court filings late last year that he planned to resign as Trump’s win pushed the DOJ to drop charges in both its ongoing cases, pointing to internal policy baring the prosecution of a sitting president. But his resignation comes amid a heated legal battle with Trump and his two-co-defendants in the Mar-a-Lago case, who are pushing to block release of that volume of Smith’s report as well as another volume reviewing Trump’s efforts to block the transfer of power. Smith was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in 2022 after Trump announced his intention to seek re-election. The appointment gave him oversight of an ongoing probe into Trump’s mishandling of classified records at his Florida home as well as an election interference case. His appointment came as DOJ turned the corner on two investigations, filing unprecedented charges against Trump in both cases later that summer. The cases became a cornerstone of Trump’s 2024 campaign as he argued the criminal cases against him were a form of political persecution. But both cases hit significant roadblocks. Florida-based U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon tossed the charges against Trump and his two co-defendants, upending 50 years of precedent regarding special counsel appointments in finding Smith was unlawfully appointed. DOJ has appealed that ruling for Trump’s two co-conspirators in the case, a matter that rests before the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. And numerous appeals from Trump in his Jan. 6 election interference case slowed that prosecution, including a matter heard by Supreme Court, which later ruled former presidents retain broad immunity from prosecution once they leave office.
Probe of New York Mayor Eric Adams uncovers more criminal conduct, prosecutors say (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors said on Tuesday they have uncovered additional criminal conduct by Eric Adams as they prepare for the New York City mayor's April corruption trial. Adams, 64, was charged in September with accepting travel perks from Turkish officials and political donations from foreigners in exchange for taking actions to benefit Turkey. He pleaded not guilty to charges of bribery, fraud and solicitation of a campaign contribution from a foreign national.
Cybertruck Bomber Matthew Livelsberger Was Known as ‘the Candy Man’ -- Sixteen years before he fatally shot himself and detonated low-grade explosives in the back of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, Master Sgt. Matthew Livelsberger of the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group arranged for a shipment of 200 stuffed animals, 100 notebooks, and 50 sets of crayons and pencils to be delivered from his native Ohio to Afghanistan. The items that arrived at Forward Operating Base Airborne in Wardak Province were the result of a charity drive for children the 22-year-old soldier had started during his second deployment in 2009, his mother paying the cost of the shipping. The donors were given an opportunity to take some small part in a war that had begun on 9/11, just as he was entering Bucyrus High School, in his native Ohio. Livelsberger had graduated in 2005 and enlisted in the Army as a special forces candidate as soon as he had recovered from a senior year football injury. He now pledged in an email to his hometown newspaper, The Bucyrus Telegraph-Forum, that he would personally distribute the donated materials. “I promise you it will be in the hands of a child in need that would not receive it otherwise,” Livelsberger wrote. “The Afghan children are adventurous and playful, just as our children are.” He allowed in a subsequent interview with the newspaper that making such deliveries in a war zone could be a challenge. “You get shot at in some places, so they must come to you,” he said. He added, “We cannot reach the hundreds of thousands of children in Afghanistan, but that is not a reason to not make an effort.” Livelsberger purchased sweets from the Post Exchange at FOB Airborne and distributed them, along with the items from Ohio. “He give it for the kids to be happy,” the unit’s interpreter, Fardin Fetwat, then 24, told The Daily Beast. In Wardak Province, Livelsberger was known to children as the "Candy Man" for the sweets he distributed. “The Afghan children are adventurous and playful, just as our children are," he told his local newspaper. Fardin Fetwat A snapshot taken at the time shows Livelsberger surrounded by smiling youngsters. “He love the kids and the kids love him,” Fetwat said. “They call him Candy Man. They say, ‘Candy Man is here!’” At night, Fetwat would accompany Livelsberger and the unit on combat missions. They had entered a compound during a major operation when a noise in the darkness signaled that a “bad guy” stood just a few feet away, his weapon pointed at Fetwat. Livelsberger fired first. “The bad guys tried to hurt me that time,” Fetwat remembered. “[Livelsberger] shoot the bad guy.” Fetwat recalls that Livelsberger remained remarkably calm. “After that, he told me, ‘Hey, always stay behind me,’” Fetwat remembered. “He save my life. And that was not the only time.”
Is your car spying on you? Cybertruck tracking in Las Vegas explosion case raises privacy concerns --Tesla’s response to a Cybertruck explosion outside President-elect Trump’s Las Vegas hotel on New Year’s Day has raised serious concerns about vehicle data and privacy.Investigators say 37-year-old Matthew Livelsberger killed himself moments before the rented Cybertruck exploded. Investigators are still sifting through evidence, but Tesla has already made statements that show how much data the company was collecting.Some of the first answers in the case came from Tesla founder Elon Musk, who wrote on social platform X that “we have [now] confirmed that the explosion was caused by very large fireworks or a bomb carried in the bed of the rented Cyber truck and is unrelated to the vehicle itself. All vehicle telemetry was positive at the time of the explosion.”That indicates the Cybertruck was transmitting data up until the explosion. Las Vegas Metro Police and the FBI have been using that data to help piece together the case.“I have to thank Elon Musk specifically for being able to capture all of the video from the Tesla charging stations across the country,” one official said. “He sent that directly to us. We tracked his movements through the Tesla charging station to Monument. Colorado, on December 30. On the 31st of December, the truck was charged in Trinidad, Colorado; Las Vegas, New Mexico; and Albuquerque and Gallup, New Mexico.”Authorities confirmed that the Cybertruck was not in full self-driving mode at any point during the incident.Investigators have also recovered a microchip from the vehicle. They have not shared any video from inside the truck, which could yield even more information, but this is still the most high-profile example of how modern cars collect information on their drivers and those around them.Tesla is not the only brand to collect this data, with most automobile companies engaging in similar activities.A 2023 study from the Mozilla Foundation found that 75 percent of car brands said they can share or sell driver data, and 84 percent of car brands said they can share driver’s personal data, with 76 percent saying they can sell your personal data.That has privacy experts warning that people’s own cars are the most heavily surveilled part of their day-to-day lives.
'Fact-Checkers Too Politically-Biased' - Zuckerberg Abandons Facebook Censorship For X-Like Community Notes --Just over a month after Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort - and a day after Trump's longtime friend, UFC CEO Dana White, joined Facebook's board - Zuckerberg announced a sweeping overhaul of the social media platform's moderation policies. The changes include nuking the controversial fact-checking censorship program and adopting a system similar to Elon Musk's Community Notes on X, signaling a pivot toward free speech as Trump 2.0 will usher in an era of revitalization of Western values."We're going to get back to our roots and focus on reducing mistakes, simplifying our policies and restoring free expression on our platforms," Zuckerberg said in a video posted on Facebook early Tuesday morning. He said, "More specifically, we're going to get rid of fact-checkers and replace them with Community Notes similar to X, starting in the US." Zuck went on to point the finger at the real problem:"After 2016, the legacy media wrote non-stop about how misinformation was a threat to democracy. We tried in good faith to address those concerns without becoming the arbiters of truth, but the fact-checkers have just been too politically-biased..." Meta released a subsequent press release detailing the changes in content moderation policies regarding political topics. He pointed to the presidential election as a significant influencer to the company's decision and railed against "governments and legacy media" for allegedly pushing "to censor more and more." Meta explained its decision to end third-party fact-checking, citing concerns over political bias and emphasizing that X's Community Notes model represents the best approach to future content moderation: When we launched our independent fact checking program in 2016, we were very clear that we didn't want to be the arbiters of truth. The intention of the program was to have independent experts give people more information about the things they see online, particularly viral hoaxes, so they were able to judge for themselves what they saw and read. That's not the way things played out, especially in the United States. Experts, like everyone else, have their own biases and perspectives. This showed up in the choices some made about what to fact check and how. Over time we ended up with too much content being fact checked that people would understand to be legitimate political speech and debate. We are now changing this approach. We will end the current third party fact checking program in the United States and instead begin moving to a Community Notes program. We've seen this approach work on X – where they empower their community to decide when posts are potentially misleading and need more context, and people across a diverse range of perspectives decide what sort of context is helpful for other users to see. We think this could be a better way of achieving our original intention of providing people with information about what they're seeing – and one that's less prone to bias
Democrats criticize Meta's fact-checking program elimination - House Democrats are hammering Meta and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, after the company announced the platform-wide end of its fact-checking program. The lawmakers said the shift is part of a larger trend across tech and media companies to curry favor from President-elect Trump, who frequently uses social media to advance false claims — and to accuse fact-checkers of biased censorship when they push back. “This is just genuflecting to Donald Trump, that’s what this is,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), former head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “I’ve already had a lot of concerns about how social media companies don’t stop disinformation. I think this is just continuing that.” Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.), senior Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, offered a similar warning, saying Meta’s move will come at the expense of fact-based discourse, an educated electorate and a healthy democracy. “It obviously allows for greater proliferation of disinformation and propaganda,” Raskin said. “This has been the right-wing agenda for several years, to put pressure on the private social media-tech companies to abandon fact-checking. “And so that’s succeeding.” The backlash arrived after Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, announced Tuesday that it was eliminating its fact-checking program, which relies on a small army of third-party contractors who review content and add labels in cases where content pushes a misleading or false claim. The program was installed after Facebook was accused of a failure to police its content during the 2016 presidential campaign, when Russia and other overseas adversaries posted countless bogus messages designed to help Trump win the race by intensifying hostilities between the parties, people of different races and other subsets of American voters. Under Meta’s new policy, messages will be monitored by other users of the company’s platforms, who will be able to post addendums using Meta’s Community Notes feature. Meta also announced that it will move its home base of policy design and content moderation from California to Texas in an effort to eliminate perceptions of political bias. The moves were hailed by conservatives, who have long accused the nation’s biggest tech companies of censoring right-wing voices disproportionately in violation of First Amendment rights of free speech.
Facebook Follows X Down Path to Becoming Right-Wing 'Cesspool' by Ending Fact-Checking Efforts -- In a move that some viewed as a means of currying favor with the incoming Trump administration, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced in a video Tuesday that the company is moving to end its third party fact-checking program.Instead, the company will use a community notes approach, inspired by the Elon Musk's platform X—where Musk's misleading claims about the 2024 presidential election racked up billions of views.Zuckerberg's announcement was accompanied by a post authored by Meta's new, "Trump-friendly" chief global affairs officer, Joel Kaplan, who described the change as "more speech and fewer mistakes." Kaplan also went on Fox & Friends on Tuesday morning to discuss the update."Too much harmless content gets censored, too many people find themselves wrongly locked up in 'Facebook jail,' and we are often too slow to respond when they do," wrote Kaplan in his post. Kaplan and Zuckerberg also noted that Meta plans to phase back in more civic content, as in posts about elections, politics, or social issues. Real Facebook Oversight Board (RFOB), a group established to counterthe perceived failures of Meta's own oversight board, blasted the move, saying, "'censorship' is a manufactured crisis, political pandering to signal that Meta's platforms are open for business to far-right propaganda." "Twitter's shift from fact checking has turned the platform into a cesspool; Zuck is joining them in a race to the bottom," the group wroteTuesday.The move generated other negative reactions."Meta went to Fox News to announce it's ending its third-party fact checking program. Zuck isn't just kissing the ring, he's slobbering all over it," wrote media reporter Oliver Darcy on Tuesday.Also on Tuesday, Kara Swisher, a tech journalist, wrote "toxic floods of lies on social media platforms like Facebook have destroyed trust not fact checkers. Let me reiterate: Mark Zuckerberg has never cared about that and never will."Co-president of the watchdog group Public Citizen, Lisa Gilbert, weighed in, saying that "misinformation will flow more freely with this policy change, as we cannot assume that corrections will be made when false information proliferates. The American people deserve accurate information about our elections, health risks, the environment, and much more. We condemn this irresponsible move and the harm it will likely contribute to our discourse."
Trump praises Meta after it ends fact-checking program President-elect Trump on Tuesday said that social media giant Meta has progressed as a company after it announced that it would eliminate its fact-checking program. “Honestly, I think they’ve come a long way — Meta, Facebook, I think they’ve come a long way,” he said, adding that he watched a Fox interview with Meta’s head of policy, Joel Kaplan, and he was “impressive.” Trump then replied “probably” when asked if the move is CEO Mark Zuckerberg directly responding to threats the president-elect has made against him. Meta announced a series of changes to its content moderation policies in what Zuckerberg said was an effort to embrace free speech. The changes, which come just weeks before Trump is set to be sworn in, mark a major move for the parent company of Instagram and Facebook. Zuckerberg in his announcement cited the recent election as a driving force in the company’s decision, slamming “governments and legacy media” as pushing the company to “censor more and more.” The changes will be implemented on both Facebook and Instagram, along with Threads. Meta’s years-long fact-checking program enlisted the help of third-party fact-checkers that moderated posts in more than 60 languages, but the company has said the practice eventually became too restrictive. When tech billionaire Elon Musk, who is a close ally of Trump, purchased X, then known as Twitter, in 2021, he implemented a system that relies on community notes. Meta also announced this week that Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO and President Dana White, another Trump ally, will join the company’s board of directors.
Washington Post cartoonist resigns after editors axed cartoon depicting Jeff Bezos, Donald Trump -- A longtime cartoonist at The Washington Post resigned after leadership reportedly killed a cartoon depicting newspaper owner and billionaire Jeff Bezos bending his knee to President-elect Trump.“I have had editorial feedback and productive conversations—and some differences—about cartoons I have submitted for publication, but in all that time I’ve never had a cartoon killed because of who or what I chose to aim my pen at,” Ann Telnaes wrote Friday in a post on Substack titled, “Why I’m quitting the Washington Post.” “Until now,” she added.Telnaes’s resignation comes as tech and business leaders have made their way to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida for meetings, seemingly building a bridge with the incoming president in recent weeks — a shift from his first term in office.The cartoonist, who joined the Post in 2008, said an editorial editor axed her art, which depicted Trump alongside a handful of tech and media titans, including Bezos, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Los Angeles Times owner Patrick Soon-Shiong and Mickey Mouse, representing the Walt Disney Company and ABC News. “The cartoon that was killed criticizes the billionaire tech and media chief executives who have been doing their best to curry favor with incoming President-elect Trump,” she wrote. David Shipley, the editorial page editor at The Post, rebuffed the allegation, stating the only “bias” in his decision to not run the cartoon was “repetition.” “I respect Ann Telnaes and all she has given to The Post. But I must disagree with her interpretation of events,” he said in a statement to The Hill. “Not every editorial judgment is a reflection of a malign force.” “My decision was guided by the fact that we had just published a column on the same topic as the cartoon and had already scheduled another column — this one a satire — for publication,” he added. In early December, Amazon, which Bezos founded, announced it would donate $1 million to Trump’s inauguration fund and also make a $1 million in-kind contribution. Bezos personallycongratulated the incoming president on his election victory as well, labeling it “an extraordinary political comeback.” “EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE MY FRIEND!!!” Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social, after having dinner with Bezos in Florida last month.
New California Law Violates 1st And 14th Amendments, Business Groups Argue In Lawsuit -Business groups in California filed a federal lawsuit on New Year’s Eve to challenge a new law that prohibits companies from firing or in any way disciplining workers who refuse to attend “captive audience” meetings, effectively undoing nearly 80 years of precedent protecting employer speech. Senate Bill 399, which took effect on Jan. 1, adds section 1137 to the California Labor Code, prohibiting employers from taking any action against an employee who refuses to attend a meeting that addresses a company’s opinions on political or religious matters.The California Chamber of Commerce and California Restaurant Association, which filed the suit, claim that the law violates employers’ First and 14th amendments rights by restricting employer speech and regulating their conversations with employees.“Because of SB 399, employers in California are now subject to liability, penalties, and other administrative action when they exercise their federal constitutional and statutory rights to talk to employees about political issues,” the lawsuit said.The bill discriminates against employers’ speech by regulating the content of employers’ communications with their employees and puts a chill on employer speech, the business organizations argued in the suit. The California Restaurant Association said it has the right to express its views on issues.“Throughout legislative deliberations, we repeatedly underscored the fact that SB 399 was a huge overreach,”CalChamber President and CEO Jennifer Barrera said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.“SB 399 is clearly viewpoint-based discrimination, which runs afoul of the First Amendment. In addition, SB 399 is preempted by the NLRA.”“Employers have the right to express their views and opinions on many issues,” Jot Condie, CRA president and CEO, said in a statement to The Epoch Times.“SB 399 creates restrictions that are unworkable and the unintended consequences of this new law outweigh any perceived benefit.”The National Labor Relations Board in November 2024 said captive audience meetings—which take place during work hours, are mandatory, and often cover unionization matters—are illegal.SB 399, authored by state Sen. Aisha Wahab, a Democrat, is geared toward stopping employers from intimidating employees who attempt to start or join a union.
UnitedHealth shareholders demand review of policies that ‘delayed or denied’ health care access - Shareholders of UnitedHealth Group (UHG) are calling on the company’s board of directors to release a report on how its policy of limiting or delaying access to health care may be impacting the company’s brand and the economy overall.The proposal by shareholders asked that the UHG board of directors produce a report looking into “how company practices impact access to healthcare and patient outcomes, including analyses of how often prior authorization requirements or denials of coverage lead to delay or abandonment of medical treatment and serious adverse events for patients.” In a supporting statement, the shareholders said UHG policies that cause “delayed or avoided medical care” threaten both the company brand name as well as its investors’ portfolios by “increasing consumer debt, jeopardizing health of policyholders and thereby reducing workforce productivity, straining government resources, and risking increased taxes.”Sisters of the Holy Names of Jesus and Mary led the filing. Co-filers include: Benedictine Sisters of Baltimore – Emmanuel Monastery; Benedictine Sisters of Mount St. Scholastica; Mercy Investment Services; Sisters of St. Francis of Philadelphia; Sisters of the Humility of Mary, OH; and Trillium Asset Management.When reached for a response, a UHG spokesperson declined to specifically comment on this proposal, directing inquiries to a statement the company issued last month regarding “misinformation.” UHG said it approves and pays 90 percent of medical claims upon submission.“Highly inaccurate and grossly misleading information has been circulated about our company’s treatment of insurance claims,” the statement read. The company’s claim process came under congressional scrutiny last year, with a Senate report finding that UnitedHealthcare and other major health insurers denied post-acute care services for Medicare Advantage at “substantially higher rates” than prior authorization requests for other types of care. “The data provided by the companies show that, not only did insurers deny prior authorization for postacute care more often than other services, but that the rate of denial was substantially higher for some companies,” the report found. “For UnitedHealthcare and CVS, 2022 denial rates for prior authorization of post-acute care services were approximately three times higher than the companies’ overall denial rates. In the case of Humana, rates for 2022 were over 16 times higher.” Timnit Ghermay, director of Northwest Coalition for Responsible Investment (NWCRI), led the filing of the proposal. Ghermay cited the recent killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in a statement explaining the request. “UNH has been in the media and legislative spotlight for some time given its market dominance, aggressive marketing of Medicare Advantage and questionable use of AI algorithms to deny care to patients,” Ghermay said. “As the tragic murder of UNH’s Brian Thompson made evident, public outrage over the exorbitant costs and restricted access to healthcare has reached a dangerous level in our country.”
New DC Think Tank Staffed Entirely By Robots (Seriously) -The fake operation has a curious tendency to defend the Pakistan military -- In October, a new foreign policy think tank calling itself the Beltway Grid Policy Centre quietly entered D.C.'s diplomatic fray. While there was no launch party and is no K Street office we could find, the think tank nevertheless began producing its intellectual product at a startling pace, issuing reports, press releases, and pitching journalists on news coverage—much of it focused on South Asia, and, in particular, the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan.At first glance, Beltway Grid—which describes itself as "a forward-thinking research institute that dives deep into the modern dynamics of lobbying" whose mission is "to illuminate the hidden tactics shaping global politics"—might be one of many marginal DC-based think tanks trying to shape elite opinion and press coverage. Yet a closer look (and not even that much closer) suggests something a bit more innovative is at play.Beltway Grid's lack of a physical footprint in Washington — or anywhere else on the earthly plane of existence — stems from more than just a generous work-from-home policy. The organization does not appear to require its employees to exist at all.That celestial quality begins at the top at Beltway Grid, which does not list an executive director, president, CEO, or any other leader, but does include 12 staff on its "about us" page. None of those employees have any trace of experience—not just professional, but of even living in the world—before arriving at Beltway Grid. Some appear to be plucked from 19th century Elizabethan novels, including Jimmy Prescott, given the rather unique title of "Research Consultant, Lobbying Techniques & Ethics." Then there's Hugh Bradford-Smythe, listed as "Lead Analyst, Political Trends & Impactlicy."Efforts to reach Bradford-Smythe to get a deeper understanding of his role analyzing "impactlicy" were unsuccessful. Dr. Eleanor Pemberton, the "Director of Policy Research and Impact," was also unavailable for comment and Drop Site could not find any trace of her doctorate or indeed her attendance at any university. (A web search did find an Eleanor Pemberton who was born in 1808 but tragically died that same year.) Similarly unfindable were Ben Templeton, "Senior Fellow, Lobbying and Regulatory Affairs," and his colleague Sebastian Fairchild, serving as "Public Policy and Engagement Coordinator."The unusual nature of Beltway Grid's staffing leaves open several possibilities. The organization may be so hard at work defending the policies of the Pakistan military and criticizing former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the team simply hasn't had time to lead previous lives or respond to requests for comment. They may be early alien settlers, dropped off by drones on the coast of New Jersey, who are fans of Jane Austen and have come to study "the modern dynamics of lobbying." Or, more likely, somebody with a small budget asked ChatGPT to set up a fake think tank. Using AI to make a think tank adds a deeper layer of irony, since AI proponents regularly admonish the public not to conflate the operations of an AI program with “thinking.”Beltway Grid's work product has left a few other clues as the motivations of its creator. One recent report, "Democracy Under Siege: Economic Fallout and Diplomatic Implications of Protests in Pakistan," argues that the November 2024 protests, which lasted just a few days and were led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party under former Prime Minister Imran Khan, resulted in higher inflation, a currency collapse, a loss of 0.8% of GDP, a cumulative cost of 3 trillion rupees. The numbers are eerily similar to a report distributed internally by the army and obtained by Drop Site News. Independent analysts have suggested the economic malaise may be more closely linked to the overall policies of the military government, but according to the author of the report Beltway Grid's "Chief Strategic Analyst, Political Influence," Alexandra Caldwell, the problems all belong at the foot of Khan. Caldwell could not be reached for further comment, but her report was convincing enough for Pakistani news to turn it into a broadcast. And its report on Imran Khan's bid for Oxford Chancellor—Beltway Grid took a dim view, believe it or not—can be found reported on PR wire services and evenrepublished on Yahoo News.One giveaway, ironically, that Beltway Grid is not a real DC lobby operation is that it uses the word "lobbying" all over its website. Lobbying in Washington is dirty business, which is why lobby shops eschew the term, euphemistically referring to their activity as "government affairs" or some such. Yet Tariq Mouawad titles himself "Co-ordinator, Lobbying Operations & Policy." Despite lobbying in Washington being a highly regulated business with routine public disclosures required, Mouawad has landed the top lobbying gig at Beltway Grid without ever having worked for any other lobbying firm, any other client, any member of Congress, or any administration. The same is true for Omar Khalil Haddad, listed as "Senior Researcher, Influence Networks & Tactics" and Dr. Yasmine Al-Hariri, "Head of Strategy & Influence Research."Another giveaway as to the maker of think tank is its liberal use of the term "5th Generation Warfare"—a favorite of the Pakistan military, a term that in Rawalpindi more or less considers mean posts about its army chief, Asim Munir, to be threats to national security. Beltway Grid Policy Centre takes 5th Generation Warfare very seriously. Staffers Elijah Bowers and Lina Abi-Saab hold positions, "Research Specialist, 5th Generation Warfare" and "Policy Analyst, 5th Generation Warfare," respectively.The easiest employee of Beltway Grid to reach ought to be Fiona Hartley, who is said to serve as "director of public affairs and media strategy" for Beltway Grid but the only findable Fiona Hartley works for a magazine in England. Despite the English spelling of “centre,” she doesn’t appear to have anything to do with Beltway Grid.The D.C. beltway, by the way, is not a grid, and Washington’s streets are infamously not laid out in a coherent grid, but rather sliced through with diagonals. If we hear back from Hartley or anybody else, we will update this report.
Bitcoin Investor Ordered To Reveal Crypto Keys In $124 Million Landmark Tax Case - An early Texas Bitcoin investor was ordered to surrender his crypto and other wallet private keys and access codes as part of a restraining order after being sentenced in December to two years in prison for tax fraud.Frank Richard Ahlgren III, who falsely underreported capital gains on over $3.7 million in Bitcoin sales between 2017 and 2019,owes the US government about $1.1 million in restitution.Austin Federal Court Judge Robert Pitman on Jan. 6 ordered Ahlgren and any of his family, friends or representatives to identify and provide any physical devices used to store his cryptocurrency, along with any public keys, private keys, seed phrases or passphrases.Frank Richard Ahlgren III and any associates have been ordered to surrender all physical devices, keys or access codes to his cryptocurrency. Pitman also ordered the parties to identify all crypto accounts relating to Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Ether or Litecoin and banned them from shifting any of Ahlgren’s cryptocurrency without prior approval from the court. This includes any action that could conceal, depreciate or diminish their value unless it is used for “normal monthly living expenses.” The order will be in full force until Ahlgren satisfies any restitution obligation ordered by the court or until further order from the court. Ahlgren pleaded guilty to filing a false tax return in September 2024 and was sentenced in December.
CFPB seeks input on protections for digital payments, crypto - With under two weeks before the end of the Biden administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued two actions on Friday aimed at providing privacy protections in digital payments and crypto assets offered by Big Tech companies and video gaming platforms. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued an interpretive rule and a separate request for information aimed at Big Tech companies, digital payments and crypto assets.
CFPB issues new fintech sandbox and no-action letter policy -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a slew of actions on several fronts this week, including restarting a fintech sandbox program and recognizing the standard-setting body for open banking. The CFPB issued separate policy statements on "sandbox approvals" and no-action letters for fintechs — measures whose longevity is questionable with the incoming Trump administration.
BankThink: Fraud in US payments is escalating — here's how we can fix it -Maya Kong, Vice President, JPMorgan Chase Card fraud is an increasingly urgent issue in the U.S., and addressing it requires a thoughtful, proactive approach. In 2023, U.S. card fraud losses totaled $14.32 billion, representing over 42% of global fraud losses, even though U.S.-issued cards accounted for just over a quarter of the total global card volume, according to the Nilson Report. This disproportionate share of fraud highlights the need for strengthened measures to safeguard transactions and protect consumers and merchants alike.The U.S. suffers from a disproportionately large share of global credit card fraud. Bringing customer authentication methods up to standards adopted in other developed countries would solve much of that problem.
BankThink: Banks' reactive approach to fraud is no longer sufficient - Banks today face a formidable challenge in combating fraud amid rapid digital transformation. Despite significant investments in security, fraud incidents continue to expose critical vulnerabilities. Traditional approaches, often reactive and fragmented, are no longer sufficient. Banks must transition to proactive, integrated strategies encompassing robust risk management and asset liability management, or ALM, to effectively reduce fraud. To effectively reduce fraud, banks must transition to proactive, integrated strategies encompassing robust risk management and asset liability management.
BankThink: Banks must take a proactive stance to combat rampant fraud - On July 17, my father passed away at 86. When my mother received a life insurance check on Aug. 4, what should have been a source of financial security turned into a devastating lesson in the vulnerability of today's banking system. On Aug. 5, a fraudster managed to open two accounts — one joint account with my mother's name and another solely in his name. His aim was to transfer the funds from the joint account to his personal one and then convert the money into cryptocurrency. By Aug. 6, the money was gone. Since the pandemic, financial scams have surged dramatically. The solutions to rampant fraud are clear; what's missing is the urgency.
How Stripe 'teaches' tech to beat the payments fraud exam - Crooks start most payments fraud by trying to figure out if the crime is actually worth the effort, sending small probes to see if there is enough money to steal. Stripe contends there is a way to gain the upper hand by leaning on machine learning. The payment company says machine learning is making progress in fighting card testing, which crooks use to determine how ripe a payment account is for theft.
Oil companies pay record $5.6M settlement after FTC alleges illegal coordination -- Three oil companies will pay a record penalty to settle allegations that they illegally coordinated before a merger between them was complete, the federal government announced on Tuesday.The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said that companies XCL Resources Holdings, Verdun Oil Company II and EP Energy LLC (EP) will pay a record $5.6 million in the civil case. A legal complaint made public Tuesday said that Verdun, which was under common management with XCL at the time, purchased EP. It says that under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust act, the companies needed to abide by a waiting period before transferring any control from one business to another — but that they transferred “significant operational control” of EP to XCL and Verdun during this period.It particularly accused XCL of halting EP’s oil development activities “at a time when the United States was experiencing significant supply shortages and spiking crude oil prices.”The Hill has attempted to reach the companies for comment.As oil and gasoline prices spiked in 2021 and 2022 amid COVID-related economic factors and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Democrats frequently accused the energy industry of price gouging. The industry has denied such allegations, and largely, analysts attributed price jumps to economic factors.The FTC, meanwhile, has in recent years given the oil and gas industry significant scrutiny,accusing one firm of colluding with foreign producers and also probing proposed mergers.President-elect Trump, meanwhile, has said he would loosen FTC scrutiny of the oil industry,The Washington Post reported earlier this year.
MountainOne Bank faces fee lawsuit despite issuing refund -- A bank accused of charging multiple fees over the same bounced payment is not off the hook after refunding one of its customers, according to a judicial ruling that has implications for the broader industry. A customer claims the Massachusetts bank fined her numerous times over a single botched purchase. The bank paid her back — but her class action lawsuit isn't going away.
Michael Barr, the Fed's top regulator, to step down - Hoping to avoid a legal battle with the incoming Trump administration, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision, will relinquish his role as the central bank's chief regulator by the end of next month. In his letter of resignation, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said an attempt by the Trump White House to remove him could create a "distraction" for the Fed. He plans to retain his seat on the Board of Governors, which expires in 2032.
BankThink: For the Fed's Michael Barr, less power is more - Being in charge is hard. In theory, if you are in charge of something you win praise when you do a good job and admonition if you screw up. But in practice, people in positions of power receive no credit when they get things right and get blamed for things they didn't do when things go wrong. With modest power comes great responsibility. Barr gave up his prestigious position as the Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision. In keeping his seat on the Board of Governors, he may have strengthened his hand in shaping banking regulation.
Barr's self-demotion changes little for regulatory outlook - Michael Barr elected to end his term as the Federal Reserve's top regulator a year and a half ahead of schedule, taking the threat of a costly and potentially damaging legal fight with the incoming Trump administration off the table for himself and the central bank. Michael Barr's surprise announcement that he will step down as the Federal Reserve's chief regulator could ultimately mean little for the central bank's approach to regulation under the incoming Trump administration.
Fed's Bowman preaches pragmatism for regulation, supervision - The Federal Reserve's resident voice of dissent to Biden-era bank policy is calling for "pragmatism as a guiding principle" to regulation and supervision under President-elect Donald Trump. Seen by many as a logical pick for the Federal Reserve's next vice chair for supervision, Gov. Michelle Bowman wants the institution to focus on safety and soundness issues, tailoring and transparency.
House banking committee leadership takes shape — Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has promoted a number of Republican lawmakers to leadership positions on the panel. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., will take the No. 2 spot on the House Financial Services Committee, while Reps. Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania and Mike Flood of Nebraska are elevated to subcommittee leadership.
FDIC's Hill aims to cut regulation, halt climate efforts - Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Vice Chair Travis Hill, poised to lead the agency, outlined his priorities, including minimizing the regulatory burden on banks, distancing the agency from climate-related rules and politically motivated oversight like Operation Choke Point, and fostering a friendlier environment for digital assets. In a speech outlining his priorities for the FDIC, Vice Chair Travis Hill stressed the need for a more flexible regulatory approach, addressing capital requirements, digital assets, climate policy, and bank oversight, while emphasizing transparency and timely action.
JPMorgan becomes the last big U.S. bank to quit climate-banking group - JPMorgan Chase bid farewell to the Net-Zero Banking Alliance on Tuesday, making it the last big U.S. bank to leave the climate-banking group ahead of the second Trump administration. The banking giant's exit from the global Net-Zero Banking Alliance leaves just three smaller U.S. banks in the group. Climate activists called large banks' departures a capitulation to Republicans' climate denialism.
Bank branches close as wildfires spread across Los Angeles - As fast-moving wildfires raged across Los Angeles County, some banks in the area were forced to close their doors out of concern for their customers and employees. JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp and others shut some branches as wildfires tore through the suburbs of Los Angeles.
A resolution for 2025: More empirically based banking regulation - As we enter 2025, America will welcome the 119th Congress and the swearing in of a new President at a time when the current economic climate poses challenges for our new leaders. They will face consumers who feel a growing nervousness about the future, brought on by a sense of economic uncertainty. In the year ahead, financial services regulatory agencies should take the opportunity to pull back from ideology-driven supervisory decisions and embrace a fact-based approach that will boost the U.S. economy, writes Brian Tate, of the Innovative Payments Association.
The bank regulatory items that are open for public comment -- Public comment openings are an essential part of any well-rounded legislative process, but it can be hard to keep track of all the different agencies and governance alerts that are published across the banking industry. These regulatory announcements in the banking industry are currently open to public comment.
CashCall ordered to pay $134 million in a win for the CFPB - An appeals court ruled that online lender CashCall must pay $134.1 million in restitution to consumers, yet another victory for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in its suit against the high-cost lender — a legal case that it has been fighting since 2013. An appeals court ruled that online lender CashCall had waived its right to a jury trial and that its other challenges "lack merit," in a lawsuit filed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2013.
CFPB to regulate large participants in personal loan market — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it will pursue a larger participant rule in the personal loan market, more than two years after a trade group and consumer advocates petitioned the bureau for one. The CFPB said it would undertake a rule to regulate large participants in the personal loan market and consider a joint rulemaking with the Federal Reserve on check and ATM hold times.
CFPB sues Experian for mishandling credit report errors --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has filed a federal lawsuit alleging that Experian's responses to borrower complaints about accuracy violate the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Experian said it has gone "above and beyond the law" to investigate consumer disputes related to the accuracy of information.
CFPB finalizes rule removing medical debt from credit reports - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule on Tuesday that would remove roughly $49 billion in medical bills from credit reports, impacting 15 million consumers. The CFPB finalized a rule that will remove medical bills from credit reports to end what the bureau called "coercive debt collection practices."
CFPB sues Experian for mishandling credit report errors --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has filed a federal lawsuit alleging that Experian's responses to borrower complaints about accuracy violate the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Experian said it has gone "above and beyond the law" to investigate consumer disputes related to the accuracy of information.
CFPB finalizes rule removing medical debt from credit reports - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule on Tuesday that would remove roughly $49 billion in medical bills from credit reports, impacting 15 million consumers. The CFPB finalized a rule that will remove medical bills from credit reports to end what the bureau called "coercive debt collection practices."
Medical debt removed from credit reports under CFPB rule - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Tuesday finalized its rule barring medical debt from being included on credit reports, potentially freeing up billions in credit. The finalized rule will prevent medical bills from being included on credit reports used by lenders and will prohibit lenders from using medical information in their decision-making. The CFPB estimated this rule will remove $49 billion in medical bills from the credit reports for roughly 15 million Americans. The Biden administration advanced this rule with the aim of helping people with medical debt obtain better credit scores and have an easier time applying for new loans. The CFPB cited its own research that found medical debt to be a poor predictor of whether someone will repay a loan. Vice President Harris is set to announce the final rule on Tuesday, as well as announce that states and localities have leveraged funds from President Biden’s American Rescue Plan to support the elimination of over $1 billion in medical debt for more than 700,000 Americans. “No one should be denied economic opportunity because they got sick or experienced a medical emergency. That is why President Biden and I cancelled over $1 billion in medical debt – part of our overall plan to forgive $7 billion by 2026 – with support from our American Rescue Plan, legislation that I advanced with my tie-breaking vote in the Senate. We also reduced the burden of medical debt by increasing pathways to forgiveness and cracking down on predatory debt collection tactics,” Harris said in a statement. Medical debt experts have concurred with this assessment, noting that medical debt differs from others. Unlike car loans or mortgages, medical debt is often incurred suddenly and without prior planning. “People who get sick shouldn’t have their financial future upended,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “The CFPB’s final rule will close a special carveout that has allowed debt collectors to abuse the credit reporting system to coerce people into paying medical bills they may not even owe.” The CFPB’s finalized rule essentially restores a provision of the Fair Credit Reporting Act of 1970, which restricted the sharing of medical information with consumer reporting agencies. Exemptions were passed in the early 2000s permitting creditors to obtain medical information in connection with credit eligibility determinations. The rule does not get rid of the debt itself, but stops it from having an impact on a consumer’s credit worthiness. Medical debt is the most common collection type found on credit reports, showing up disproportionately more when compared to other forms of debt. More than 1 in 3 U.S. adults struggles with medical debt. People of color, middle-aged individuals, people with disabilities and low-income earners are disproportionately impacted by medical debt.
CFPB Bans Medical Debt From Credit Reports—But GOP Wants to Reverse It Months after more than half of respondents to an Associated Press pollsaid it was "extremely or very important" for the federal government to take action to help people with medical debt, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday finalized a rule to keep such debt off credit reports.With broad public support, the rule appeared to be an uncontroversial slam dunk for the Biden administration in the last days of President Joe Biden's presidency—but Republicans, who now have majorities in Congress and are poised to take over the White House in less than two weeks, have signaled that they would take action to undo the CFPB's regulations, including the medical debt rule.U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the new chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said last month that the CFPB should halt all rulemaking until President-elect Donald Trump takes office."It is paramount that President Trump can begin his administration on January 20 with a fresh slate to implement the economic agenda that the American people resoundingly voted for," Scott said.The senator's comments suggested that Americans who voted for Trump did so in order to continue paying overdraft fees, having their personal information sold by predatory data brokers, and being penalized for owing medical bills—all of which the CFPB has taken action on since the November elections. As Noam N. Levey wrote at KFF Health News, the CFPB on Tuesday "effectively dared the incoming Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress to undue rules that are broadly popular and could help millions of people who are burdened by medical debt.""People who get sick shouldn't have their financial future upended."The new rule would remove $49 billion in unpaid medical debt from credit reports by amending Regulation V, which implements the Fair Credit Reporting Act.Lenders are restricted from obtaining or using medical information to make lending decisions. But federal regulators have created an exception to that restriction, allowing companies to consider medical debt. The new rule ends that exception by banning medical bills on credit reports, which the CFPB said has led to a practice of using the credit reporting system to coerce payments even if bills are inaccurate, as they frequently are, according to the agency.About 15 million people will be helped by the new regulation, said the CFPB, with credit scores of people with medical debt boosted by an average of 20 points.
CFPB sued for exceeding its authority on medical debt rule - Two trade groups have sued the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for issuing a rule to remove medical debts from credit reports, claiming the bureau ignored the legislative history on medical debts and exceeded its authority.
Debt collectors sue the CFPB for 'overreach' on medical debt - A trade group representing debt collectors has filed a lawsuit challenging the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's final rule banning medical debt from credit reports, the second suit to be filed against the bureau this week. Debt collection trade group ACA International and Specialized Collections Systems, a Houston-based debt collector, filed a lawsuit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau alleging its medical debt rule is outside its authority.
Recent CFPB rules face repeal with no return under Trump -- The incoming Trump administration is expected to seek the repeal of some regulations finalized by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. On the chopping block are rules finalized by the CFPB since August, the six-month lookback deadline for lawmakers to repeal rules under the Congressional Review Act. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's last-minute actions are expected to annoy the incoming Trump administration, which will seek to undo them, putting protections in jeopardy.
CFPB rules, M&A standards most likely CRA repeal targets --While most of the Biden administration's prudential banking regulations can't be overturned under the Congressional Review Act, late-breaking rules by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's M&A rules could be overturned.
CFPB sues Berkshire Hathaway company Vanderbilt Mortgage -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is suing Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance, a unit of Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary Clayton Homes, for risky lending practices that left many consumers bankrupt and without a home. The manufactured home loan lender, a unit of Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary Clayton Homes, was accused of ignoring red flags that sent many borrowers into bankruptcy, default and ultimately out of their homes.
US Government Sues Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Owned Lending Company For Predatory Mortgages - A mortgage lender owned by Warren Buffet’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been sued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), alleging that the business pushed people into taking unaffordable loans. The Jan. 6 lawsuit was filed against Tennessee-based Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Tennessee. The company provides loans for manufactured homes, also known as mobile homes. “Vanderbilt’s business model ignored clear and obvious red flags that the borrowers could not afford the loans,” the agency said in a statement. “As a result, many families found themselves struggling to make payments and meet basic life necessities. “Vanderbilt charged many borrowers additional fees and penalties when their loans became delinquent, and some eventually lost their homes.” Vanderbilt is a subsidiary of Clayton Homes, the largest builder of manufactured homes in the United States. Clayton is, in turn, a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Most homes financed by Vanderbilt are manufactured and sold by affiliated companies owned by Clayton. According to the agency, mobile homes are a “vital source of affordable housing,” especially for millions of low-income and older U.S. citizens. In July, the average sales price of a single-section manufactured home was $88,800, data from the U.S. Census Bureau show. In contrast, the median sales price of houses sold in the second quarter of 2024 was $414,500. In the complaint, the CFPB alleged that Vanderbilt “manipulated lending standards” when borrowers did not have enough income. “Vanderbilt often disregarded evidence that borrowers did not have sufficient income or assets (other than the value of their home) to pay their mortgage and cover recurring obligations and basic living expenses, like food and health care,” the statement said.
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. A brief excerpt: Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales.In a 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.First, from February 2005 (20 years ago!): The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. ...Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM. It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem.And a serious problem is what happened!
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Applications decreased last week as rising mortgage rates continued to discourage buyers from entering the market and put a damper on purchase activity. The 30-year fixed rate increased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 6.99 percent – the highest rate since July 2024,” . “Purchase applications declined for both conventional and government loans and dropped to the slowest weekly pace since February 2024. Refinance applications increased despite higher rates, but the increase was compared to recent low levels and was entirely driven by an increase in VA refinances, which continue to show weekly swings.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.99 percent from 6.97 percent, with points decreasing to 0.68 from 0.72 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 15% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up about 2% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 15% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index is very low.
Housing Jan 6th Weekly Update: Inventory down 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.3% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.8%), and down 22.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 16.8%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Jan 3rd, inventory was at 635 thousand (7-day average), compared to 651 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December -- From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December -The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 192.3. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.2% while institutional planning improved 2.5%. “Commercial activity rebounded strongly in December, thanks to a re-acceleration in data center and warehouse planning activity,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Overall, the strong performance of the Momentum Index this past year is expected to support nonresidential construction spending throughout 2025.” On the commercial side, data center and warehouse planning drove much of the growth this month, while stronger healthcare and education activity supported the institutional portion. In December, the DMI was up 19% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 30% from December 2023, while the institutional segment was flat over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects in 2023 and 2024, commercial planning would be up 8% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 5%. ... The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 212.0 in December, up from 192.3 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. ... The national median monthly rent closed out 2024 at $1,373 in December, after declining by 0.6 percent, or $8, from the prior month. Year-over-year rent growth nationally also currently stands at -0.6 percent, meaning that the typical apartment is currently renting for slightly less than it was one year ago. ... Realtor.com: 16th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In November 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year-over-year for the sixteenth month in a row, down $19 or -1.1% year-over-year for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, faster than the rate of -0.8% seen in October 2024.
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High 0 A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply, And Industrial Maintains Status Quo Amid record-level inventory growth, average vacancy rate edged up 10 bps in each of the last two quarters and finished 2024 at 6.1%, 40 bps higher than the same time last year and the highest level on record since 2011. Moody’s Analytics (formerly Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 6.1% in Q4 2024, up from an upwardly revised 6.0% in Q3, and up from the pandemic peak of 5.6% in Q1 2021. This is the highest vacancy rate since 2011. Note that asking rents are flat year-over-year. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities.
Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q4 -- Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High - From Moody’s Analytics economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply, And Industrial Maintains Status Quo: The retail vacancy rate remained stable at 10.3% in Q4, putting a pause to a one-time decline in the previous quarter. Both asking and effective rent enjoyed a slight increase of 0.3%, reaching $21.90 and $19.19/sqft respectively. This steady performance fit in with the backdrop of retail sales exceeding expectations again in the fourth quarter, with October and November witnessing 0.5% and 0.7% growth respectively. Although these gains were primarily driven by purchases of motor vehicles and online merchandise, this surge in consumer spending reflected the resilience of the labor market, robust household finances, accompanied by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a slowdown in inflation, which together bolstered consumer confidence. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). Moody's reports the strip mall vacancy rates was 10.3% in Q4, down slightly from 10.4% in Q4 2023.Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.Recently the vacancy rate has held fairly steady at a high level as online shopping continues to impact brick and mortar stores.
Emirati billionaire to invest $20 billion in US data centers - President-elect Trump announced Tuesday that Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani plans to invest $20 billion in the United States “over a very short period of time” to build data centers across the country. The investment will support the construction of new data centers in the Midwest and Sun Belt regions, with the first phase of the project focusing on Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana.The influx of funds will help “keep America on the cutting edge of technology,” Trump said at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. “Artificial intelligence is very big into the data centers, and that’s going to be a very hot item in the coming years,” he added. The president-elect was joined at his Palm Beach resort Tuesday by Sajwani, who is CEO of the Dubai-based property development company DAMAC Properties. “We’re very, very excited now with his leadership and his open strategy and policy to encourage businesses to come to the U.S.,” Sajwani said of Trump. “For the last four years, we’ve been waiting for this moment.” He also suggested that DAMAC could eventually increase its investment in the U.S. The announcement comes just weeks after Trump unveiled a $100 billion investment in the U.S. from the Japanese company SoftBank focused on artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. The event struck a similar tone, with SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son saying his confidence in the U.S. economy had “tremendously increased” following Trump’s win in November. Trump also vowed on Tuesday to offer expedited environmental reviews for companies, like DAMAC and SoftBank, who invest more than a billion dollars in the U.S. “Everyone’s afraid they’re going to come and get caught in the quagmire, which is very prevalent in the United States unfortunately, the quagmire of environmental and various other regulations and rules,” the president-elect said. “I made it a point of telling people, if you invest a billion dollars or more — and we’ll do this for people with far less too — but we guarantee it, we’re going to move them quickly through the environmental process,” he added.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 10% YoY in December - This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 422 thousand SAAR in December, down from 491 thousand in November, and down 9.5% from 466 thousand SAAR in December 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. This is just one month, and sales might be revised up.Meanwhile, as I mentioned on Friday, light vehicle sales increased in December.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales were at 16.80 million SAAR in December, up from 16.65 million in November, and up 5.5% from 15.92 million in December 2023.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year --From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in December Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 204.8, an increase of 0.4% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index reduced the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined at a higher rate. The non-adjusted price in December decreased by 0.8% compared to November, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.3% year over year. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in December (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.4% year-over-year (YoY).
Trade Deficit increased to $78.2 Billion in November -- The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November, up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion more than October exports. November imports were $351.6 billion, $11.6 billion more than October imports. Exports and imports increased in November. Exports are up 6.6% year-over-year; imports are up 9.4% year-over-year. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $25.0 billion from $21.6 billion a year ago. It is likely some importers are trying to beat potential tariffs.
ADP: Private Employment Increased 122,000 in December -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December“The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year, creating more jobs than any other sector. This was below the consensus forecast of 143,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 150,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December.
ISM® Services Index Increases to 54.1% in December -- The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.1% December 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® The Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent, indicating expansion for the 52nd time in 55 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. “In December, the Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent, 2 percentage points higher than November’s figure of 52.1 percent. The reading in December marked the 10th time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 58.2 percent in December, 4.5 percentage points higher than the 53.7 percent recorded in November, indicating a sixth consecutive month of expansion and finishing the year with its third-highest reading for 2024. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 54.2 percent in December, 0.5 percentage point higher than November’s figure of 53.7 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fifth time in six months; the reading of 51.4 percent is a 0.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 51.5 percent recorded in November. This was above consensus expectations.
BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.1 million in November - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased, but layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in November to 8.10 million from 7.84 million in October. The number of job openings (black) were down 9% year-over-year. Quits were down 13% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 7,000, from +36,000 to +43,000, and the change for November was revised down by 15,000, from +227,000 to +212,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 8,000 lower than previously reported. Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 256 thousand in December. Private payrolls increased by 223 thousand, and public payrolls increased 33 thousand. Payrolls for October and November were revised down 8 thousand, combined. Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In December, the year-over-year change was 2.23 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the annual benchmark revision will lower the year-over-year change). The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.5% in December, from 62.5% in November. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.0% from 59.8% in November (blue line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. This was well above consensus expectations; however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined.
December jobs report: ho ho ho, Santa brought a gift - but with a couple of lumps of coal mixed in -- My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past “warm,” we get to lukewarm, and then cool, and then chilly. In other words, if it continues at some point “deceleration” transitions into “deterioration.” A “soft landing” would require that the deceleration end, and the numbers stabilize. That’s what I was watching out for last year. So this month I have continued to be on the lookout for stabilization vs. deterioration.Additionally, we have to be particularly careful at this time of year to overweight any one month, due to seasonality. Yes, of course these numbers are seasonally adjusted, but the Holiday season is particularly hard to get right.Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 256,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 223,000. Government jobs increased by 33,000. Even including October’s poor number, the three month average was an increase of +165,000.
- The pattern of downward revisions to previous months continued in part this month.. October was revised upward by 7,000, while November was revised down by -15,000, for a net decline of -8,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an increase of 478,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series increased 537,000 jobs. This is good news after two of the previous three months had shown a YoY decline.
- The U3 unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 4.1%. Since the three month average is 4.133% vs. a low of 3.7% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of just over 0.4%, this means the “Sahm rule” is once again not triggered. The rate for native born workers declined -0.2% (NSA) to 3.7%, up 0.2% YoY and that for foreign born workers also declined -0.2% (NA) to 4.3%, but was higher by 0.5% YoY.
- The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% to 7.5%, 1.1% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now increased 22,000 to 5.505 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023, but showing a continued slow decline in the past 12 months.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and November was also revised higher by 0.1%. This remains down -0.6 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but on the other hand is the highest since December two years ago.
- Manufacturing jobs declined -13,000. This series is firmly in decline.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -4,100.
- Truck driving declined -800.
- Construction jobs increased another 8,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 3,500 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole declined -8,000, and are now -27,000 below their September peak. This is especially important, because these typically decline before any recession occurs. As I wrote two months ago, “in the absence of special factors this would be a serious red flag for oncoming recession.”
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining since late 2022, rose by 5,300, the second increase in a row. These had declined over -550,000 since their peak in March 2022, so this is good news which may signal that the bottom in this metric is in.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer fell -52,000 to 2,166,000. This is in line with its range for the past 12 months.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.06, or +0.2%, to $30.62, for a YoY gain of +3.8%, the lowest since their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. Nevertheless, and importantly, this continues to be significantly higher than the 2.7% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose 0.2%. This measure remains up 1.1% YoY, which is in line with its trend for the past 18 months.
- The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was rose 0.4%, and is up 4.9% YoY. This resumes the pattern of slow deceleration since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, and is the lowest since early 2021. Nevertheless in real inflation adjusted terms this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Professional and business employment rose 9,400 to the highest number since July. These tend to be well-paying jobs. Their YoY comparison, however, remained 0.4%, which in the past 80+ years has almost always happened immediately before, during, or after recessions.
- The employment population ratio rose 0.2% to 60.0%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate remained steady at 62.5%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. The prime 25-54 age participation rate declined -0.1% to 83.4%, vs. its all time peak of 83.9% in June and July.
SUMMARY: Needless to say, in the main this report was strongly positive, as all the headline numbers moved in the right direction. There was also good news in aggregate payrolls, in the construction sector, and in the previously suffering professional and business as well as temp jobs sectors. The native born unemployment rate continues to be consistent with the very low initial jobless claims numbers we’ve been seeing each week. As I noted above, the leading indicators in the survey were mixed, as construction continued to power forward, and short term unemployment declined; but on the other hand, manufacturing continues to suffer and the goods producing sector as a whole has failed to make a new high for the past 3 months. Although this is hardly dispositive, it is a red flag. Meanwhile real wages remained positive, but this too has continued to decelerate. Much depends on the immediate future course of inflation.But to return to my main theme, this month was consistent with the “soft landing” scenario, although the longer term trend of deceleration has not been broken. And because of Holiday seasonality, take it with an extra grain of salt.
Comments on December Employment Report - The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate . Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in December at 83.4% from 83.5% in November. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.5% from 80.4% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in December. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in December and is little different from a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 million from 4.47 million in November. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.5% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.51 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.65 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Through December 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 48 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth). Summary: The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. A strong employment report.
McDonald's scales back diversity goals after court decision - Fast food giant McDonald’s has become the latest company to roll back diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) commitments following the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision ending affirmative action in college admissions. McDonald’s announced Monday it will retire specific goals for achieving diversity at senior leadership levels, The Associated Press reported. The company also plans to disband a program that encourages suppliers to develop diversity training and increase the number of minorities in leadership positions. Under Reginald J. Miller, McDonald’s president and global diversity, equity and inclusion officer, the Chicago-based company in 2021 announced executive bonuses would be tied to meeting DEI goals. The company also started its “Allyship through Accountability” policy, which committed to filling 35 percent of U.S. leadership roles with underrepresented groups and 45 percent of leadership roles with women by 2025. In an open letter to employees and franchisees announcing the rollbacks, McDonald’s senior leadership team said 30 percent of U.S. leaders are from underrepresented groups, and it has reached gender pay equity at all levels since setting the 2021 goal, according to the AP. McDonald’s becomes the latest corporation to step back from DEI commitments following the Supreme Court’s decision and growing conservative backlash to such policies. Companies including Walmart, John Deere, Harley-Davidson, Lowe’s and Ford have all ended or cut back on DEI programs since 2023. While McDonald’s plans to continue reporting demographic data, it will no longer participate in “external surveys.” It’s unclear which surveys those are, but companies including Lowe’s and Ford, have announced they will not participate in an annual survey by the Human Rights Campaign to measure workplace inclusion for LGBTQ employees. McDonald’s attributed the policy changes to the “shifting legal landscape,” added that the actions of other companies caused it to take a look at its own policies, according to the AP. Despite the changes, the company said it would continue to support efforts that ensure a diverse base of employees, suppliers and franchisees.
Machine learning helps predict ADHD in kindergarten students - A University of Alberta research team has successfully used machine learning as a tool for earlier detection of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in kindergarten students. In a recent study published in the journal PLOS Digital Health, the team analyzed de-identified provincial health records and teachers' developmental assessments to accurately predict which students would go on to be diagnosed with ADHD within the following four years. "By applying machine learning to this data, we can predict ADHD several years down the road for these children," "The long-term goal of the research is to focus on high-risk populations and see if there are modifiable factors so that we can reduce the risk," Cao says. "Unidentified ADHD can have a huge impact on the developmental trajectory of kids because if they can't follow the class in kindergarten, then it just gets harder in the later grades," The research team also included contributors from Alberta Health and the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute. ADHD is the most common neurodevelopmental disorder in children, affecting about five to nine percent of children and three to five percent of adults, There are three types of ADHD: hyperactive, inattentive and a combination of the two. Symptoms can include impulsivity, learning difficulties and poor emotional self-regulation. The average age at diagnosis is seven for boys and 12 for girls. In Alberta, treatments offered include behavior therapy, counseling and medication. The team analyzed records for 23,247 children who were in kindergarten in Alberta in 2016. Children who had already been diagnosed with ADHD were not included. Within the following four years, 1,680 or 7.2 percent of the children studied received a diagnosis of ADHD. The study team cross-linked administrative health data with results from a developmental assessment tool used by teachers, the Early Development Instrument. The questionnaire is completed by kindergarten teachers to measure whether children are meeting developmental expectations for physical health, social competence, emotional maturity, language and cognitive development, communication skills and general knowledge. The results are grouped to give a snapshot of how children are doing across schools, neighborhoods, cities or provinces. The health data included records such as health issues at birth, past mental health of the mothers and number of emergency department visits by the children, as well as demographic information by neighborhood, such as household size, average percentage of income spent on housing, and education levels. The algorithm predicted future ADHD diagnoses with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.81 when it used the combination of data from both the health records and the assessment tool. The AUC is a metric used to evaluate model prediction performance, with an AUC of 1 representing perfect performance.
Oklahoma governor threatens to withhold high school diplomas from youth who are not enrolling in college, trade school or the military - Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt has recently been promoting his “Classrooms to Careers” initiative, purportedly to turn “classrooms into career launchpads” and prepare “every student for success in the workforce,” according to a December 27 social media post. But the type of “success” Stitt envisions has been quickly revealed. Stitt told a local Fox affiliate on December 30 that he might make it a high school graduation requirement that “you’ve got to either be accepted to college or you have to be accepted into a career tech or you have to be going into the army, you have to have some kind of plan post-graduation to go get a great job.” In other words, Stitt wants working-class young people forced into a “choice” between in-demand production jobs (after self-financing the training) or fighting in American imperialism’s ever-expanding wars for global hegemony. A tsunami of angry opposition from parents, teachers, students and community members has ensued. “How about letting students and their families decide what is best for them,” said one Facebook commentator. Another wrote, “This sounds like ‘Mandatory Military Service Straight Outta Highschool for the Poor’ but with flowery language.” A third stated, “Mandatory military service for the poor. We see what you’re doing, Stitt. This isn’t helping kids. This is disgusting.” In a TikTok video that promptly went viral, an Oklahoma teacher explained that the governor’s idea makes no allowance for young people with special needs or those who cannot afford higher education. She says it “smells like institutionalization and forced labor to me… choice, parental rights, all that’s a myth to earn your vote. They lied to you.” She noted, “it’s all off the table unless you’re a one percenter.” Her TikTok has 20,000 comments to date, the vast majority scathingly denouncing the proposal. Temara Jean posted, “So, they are basically initiating the draft without saying it’s a draft”—which was liked by over 108,000 people. PowBamfKAK said, “Most people can’t afford college.” The teacher responded, “Many children can’t even afford the application process. Either way, this cuts off high school graduation for the poorest students.” Governor Stitt’s suggestion of a military requirement for those unable or uninterested in attending college or trade school points to the ruling class’s profound concern over a severe military recruitment shortfall. The far-right Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 details this downward trend in enlistment. Writing in Project 2025, former Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller (who played a crucial role in facilitating Trump’s coup attempt by initially preventing D.C. National Guard troops from assisting Capitol Police to protect Congress) laments that military “recruiting was the worst in 2022 that it has been in two generations and is expected to be even worse in 2023.” As a remedy for this, Miller suggests: “Improve military recruiters’ access to secondary schools and require completion of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB)—the military entrance examination—by all students in schools that receive federal funding.”
University of Michigan student government president and vice president removed over pro-Palestinian viewsOn December 21, the University of Michigan (UMich) Central Student Judiciary (CSJ), the judicial branch of the Central Student Government (CSG), officially removed pro-Palestinian and anti-genocide CSG president Alifa Chowdhury and vice president Elias Atkinson, each on a single charge of dereliction of duty. In addition to removing the pair from office, the CSJ barred Chowdhury and Atkinson from ever holding CSG office in the future. Speaker of the Assembly Mario Thaqi has taken Chowdhury’s place as CSG president. After seven days of hearings spread from November 22 to December 21, totaling over 20 hours of deliberation, the only infractions the CSJ could cite against the pair were four unexcused absences from Assembly meetings by Chowdhury, and Atkinson’s failure to hold CSG meetings, which the student government constitution requires that he lead twice monthly. The CSJ found Chowdhury and Atkinson not guilty on all other charges, most significantly on the charge of inciting violence. Chowdhury and Atkinson ran on the Shut It Down platform, opposing the US-Israel-led genocide in Gaza and its connection to the university, and won the election last spring. They were impeached on November 12 by a 30 to 7 vote on a motion presented by CSG representative Margaret Peterman. The motion issued five articles of impeachment: two each directed against Chowdhury and Atkinson, one for “inciting violence” against the CSG and the student body, and one for “dereliction of duty,” and a single charge for “cyber theft of CSG property” against Chowdhury. The “violence” in question is a slanderous description of a public CSG meeting held on October 8, during which students peacefully protested to support the Rebuilding Education in Gaza Act. Shut It Down organized the protest through an Instagram post calling on students to “Pack CSG” to support the act. The Rebuilding Education in Gaza Act, which would have provided “$440,000 to rebuilding education in Gaza,” was up for a vote alongside the Wolverines’ Budget Act, which provided funding for student programs and clubs. During the meeting, the CSG passed the Wolverines’ Budget Act and rejected the Rebuilding Education in Gaza Act. Student protesters denounced the vote upon its announcement. Following the meeting, Chowdhury used the official CSG Instagram account to post a video criticizing the vote’s outcome.
High-fat diet during adolescence increases impulsive behaviors in adult rodents - For adults, a diet high in saturated fats and added sugar has been linked to impulsivity and poor self-control. But what role, if any, does diet play in adolescent psychological development? Researchers report in ACS Chemical Neuroscience that adolescent rodents fed a high-fat diet showed poor control during motor inhibition tasks and conservative decision-making in gambling scenarios as adults. This information could provide insights into human development. Diet is one of many factors—like sleep, exercise and substance use—expected to affect an adolescent's cognitive development and reward-seeking behavior. Previously, researchers collected evidence that supports the importance of sleep and exercise on behavioral development, but there is limited data about the effects of specific patterns of eating. So, Santiago Mora and colleagues designed experiments to look at the potential influences of a high-fat diet during adolescence on the actions and choices of adult rats.For the experiments, Mora's team fed 20 young rats a high-fat diet of cheesecake (cheesecake rats) and another 20 a nutritionally balanced chow diet (chow rats). When the rodents reached adulthood, the researchers trained all 40 to perform multiple tasks, including a gambling scenario. These attention and inhibitory-control tasks allowed the researchers to evaluate the animals' abilities to manage impulsive and compulsive actions and make safe decisions.Task evaluations revealed that adult cheesecake rats prematurely responded to visual cues (i.e., jumping the gun to get a tasty snack), which the researchers say is evidence of increased impulsive actions. However, the adult cheesecake rats exhibited less risky decision-making by opting for safer but smaller rewards during gambling scenarios (i.e., no high rolling in casinos) than the adult chow rats.In additional tests, the researchers identified genetic differences between the cheesecake and chow rats' prefrontal cortices (one of the parts of the brain that control behavior and personality) and gut metabolism biomarkers.Briefly, the cheesecake rats exhibited altered function of the mesolimbic pathway—the so-called reward pathway—in their brains and had modified levels of fatty acids in their guts linked to neurological and behavioral outcomes. The results suggest that a high-fat diet during adolescence could interfere with brain development and affect neurobehavioral outcomes in adulthood.The researchers say that their data show a high-fat diet in adolescence can provoke long-term changes in impulsive behavior in rats, but they recognize more research is needed to "disentangle the specific mechanisms underlying these intriguing effects."
What we eat affects our health—and can alter how our genes function - Fiber is well known to be an important part of a healthy diet, yet less than 10% of Americans eat the minimum recommended amount. A study from Stanford Medicine might finally convince us to fill our plates with beans, nuts, cruciferous veggies, avocados and other fiber-rich foods. The research, published in Nature Metabolism on Jan. 9 identified the direct epigenetic effects of two common byproducts of fiber digestion and found that some of the alterations in gene expression had anti-cancer actions. When we eat fiber, the gut microbiome produces short-chain fatty acids. These compounds are more than just an energy source for us: they have long been suspected to indirectly affect gene function. The researchers traced how the two most common short-chain fatty acids in our gut, propionate and butyrate, altered gene expression in healthy human cells, in treated and untreated human colon cancer cells, and in mouse intestines. They found direct epigenetic changes at specific genes that regulate cell proliferation and differentiation, along with apoptosis, or pre-programmed cell death processes—all of which are important for disrupting or controlling the unchecked cell growth that underlies cancer. "We found a direct link between eating fiber and modulation of gene function that has anti-cancer effects, and we think this is likely a global mechanism because the short-chain fatty acids that result from fiber digestion can travel all over the body," said Michael Snyder, Ph.D., Stanford W. Ascherman, MD, FACS Professor in Genetics. "It is generally the case that people's diet is very fiber poor, and that means their microbiome is not being fed properly and cannot make as many short-chain fatty acids as it should. This is not doing our health any favors."
Study: COVID-19 hospital cases, deaths in nursing homes fell sharply after widespread vaccination -- A study today in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology of more than 44,000 COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles County nursing homes reveals that hospitalizations and deaths per 100 residents fell from 31 and 24, respectively, prior to widespread vaccination to 11 and 7, respectively, afterward from March 2020 to April 2022. LA County has 383 nursing homes housing more than 35,000 licensed beds. County health officials documented all COVID-19 outbreaks beginning in March 2020. In total 44,279 cases were analyzed from 1,587 outbreaks in 313 nursing homes. The authors defined an outbreak as 1 or more cases in nursing home residents with lab-confirmed COVID-19 infection and no periods of 14 or more days between successive COVID-19 cases in residents.Through the median outbreak size peaked during the 2021-22 winter, when the Omicron variant dominated COVID-19 transmission in the United States, severity dropped significantly, as most residents were vaccinated. "Despite peak or near-peak outbreak duration and size in the winter surge that followed vaccination, the decline in severe outcomes observed upon vaccine introduction endured," the authors wrote. They added, however, "Our study also adds to existing evidence that surges in community transmission are strongly correlated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in NHs [nursing homes] … even after widespread vaccine availability."
COVID vaccine may speed relief of some persistent symptoms -- A first dose of COVID-19 vaccine accelerated relief of long-COVID symptoms such as fatigue and muscle aches in UK adults, but flu vaccination did not, suggests an observational University College London–led study published yesterday in the Journal of Infection.The researchers used data from the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app to compare improvement in long-COVID symptoms in the second week before and after COVID-19 vaccination in patients receiving their first dose with that in matched unvaccinated patients (1,679 in each group; 69.4% women) starting in November 2020. They also performed the same analysis in long-COVID patients receiving a flu vaccine dose and their unvaccinated peers (692 in each group).Given UK SARS-CoV-2 variant prevalence during the flu vaccination campaign, patients were likely to have been infected by the Delta variant, but this was not formally tested, the authors noted. "Some individuals experience otherwise unexplained persistent symptoms after COVID-19, now categorized as ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 [OSC] (symptoms for 4 - 12 weeks) or the post COVID-19 syndrome [PCS] (symptoms for more than 12 weeks)," they wrote. "Both OSC and PCS can disrupt activities of daily living, with dyspnoea [shortness of breath], severe fatigue, anosmia [loss of smell] and headaches amongst the commonest reported symptoms."After COVID-19 vaccine receipt, the likelihood of experiencing 13 symptoms in long-COVID patients was lower than that of unvaccinated participants. These symptoms included fatigue, loss of smell, cough, shortness of breath, nasal discharge, muscle pain, brain fog, low mood, chest pain, tinnitus, delirium, and rash. Symptom worsening was less common in vaccinated than unvaccinated participants (23 of 29 symptoms), except for loss of appetite, brain fog, sneezing, tinnitus (ringing in the ears), earache, and heart palpitations. Symptom burden improved significantly more in COVID-vaccinated patients after vaccination than in unvaccinated patients for eight symptoms, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain, low mood, chest pain, diarrhea, tinnitus, and a burning sensation on the skin.After flu vaccine receipt, of the 12 symptoms common to both analyses (before and after vaccination), absence of change/limited change was most often reported for fatigue (58.3% prospective vs 50.4% retrospective), chest pain (53.2% vs 59.3%, respectively), hoarse voice (58.3% vs 59.4%), and sore throat (51.8% vs 41.4%).Symptoms that improved the most in both prospective and retrospective symptom reporting were cough (71.3% prospective vs 51.6% retrospective), loss of appetite (77.5% vs 45.2%, respectively), and diarrhea (58.7% vs 37.0%). In the prospective analysis, more participants reported symptom improvement than worsening for all symptoms. Likewise, in the retrospective analysis, more patients reported improvement of all symptoms except muscle pain, abdominal pain, and fever, but overall, the percentage in the "worsened" category was much higher in the retrospective analysis than in the prospective study."The data suggest that [COVID] vaccination may contribute to symptom recovery of OSC/PCS, though potential mechanisms remain to be explored," the researchers wrote. "In contrast, vaccination against influenza was not associated with reduction in key COVID-19 symptoms," they added. "However, we recognize that all observational designs are subject to biases (such as selection bias); and a priori individual expectations around SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and influenza vaccination were unlikely to be the same."
Early-life infection burden continues throughout childhood, new data reveal -New data from researchers in Denmark suggest that children who have a lot of common infections early in life have higher risk of moderate to severe infections and antibiotic use throughout childhood.The findings are from a study, published today in JAMA Network Open, that analyzed data on common infection episodes and antibiotic prescriptions in a cohort of Danish children from birth to age 10 or 13 years. Researchers with the University of Copenhagen found that children with a high versus low burden of infection between birth and 3 years of age were more likely to have moderate to severe infections and to receive antibiotic treatment by ages 10 and 13.The researchers say the findings are useful for the prognosis and follow-up of young children who have a high burden of infection.Using data from the Danish population-based Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood (COPSAC) birth cohort, the researchers analyzed daily symptom and medication diaries completed by parents of children ages 0 to 3 years, supported by both scheduled and acute visits to the COPSAC clinic. Infections of interest included colds, gastroenteritis, fever episodes, acute otitis media (earache), tonsilitis, and pneumonia.The researchers then examined data on diagnoses and prescriptions at scheduled clinical visits until February 2024, when the children had reached the age 10- or 13-year planned clinical visit. The incidence of moderate to severe infections and systemic antibiotics after age 3 was estimated using adjusted incidence rate ratios (AIRRs). The analysis was adjusted for social and environmental confounders, including sex, social circumstances, delivery mode, and maternal age, education and income.Of the 700 children included in the study, 614 had daily diary infection data from birth to 3 years available. Among these children, there was a mean of 16.4 infections, with colds the most frequent infection identified. After age 3, the 614 children experienced 268 moderate to severe infections, primarily pneumonia (77.6%), with a mean of 2.32 antibiotic treatments per child.When the researchers compared children who'd had 16 or more infections by age 3 (high burden) with those who'd had 15 or fewer (low burden), they found a more than twofold higher risk of moderate to severe infection after age 3 in the high-burden group (181 vs 87 episodes; AIRR, 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52 to 3.89] and an increased risk of systemic antibiotic treatments (799 vs 632 episodes; AIRR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.68). The analysis also found that, even in children who weren't in the high-burden group, each infection listed in the diary increased the later risk of moderate to severe infections (AIRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02 to1.08) and systemic antibiotic treatments (AIRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04). Subtype analyses showed significant associations between each cold, acute otitis media, pneumonia, gastroenteritis, and fever episode between birth and 3 years and increased risk of later moderate to severe infections or systemic antibiotic treatments.
Study: RSV in preschoolers comes with significant healthcare use, parents' work absence --A prospective cohort study conducted across five European countries found that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children 5 years and younger is associated with significant symptom burden, healthcare use, and parental work absence. The findings were published yesterday in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine.Though research has shown RSV infections in infants come with a high burden and hospital use, the virus has not been well-described in preschoolers, the authors said.The study took place in primary care settings in Belgium, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom during the RSV seasons of 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23. Children presenting to primary care providers with acute respiratory symptoms were tested for RSV. If they tested positive and their parents consented, children were followed up for 30 days via a physician clinical report, and two parent-report questionnaires were given on days 14 and 30.In total, among 3,414 tested children, 1,124 (32.9%) were positive for RSV. RSV illness lasted a mean of 11.7 days (95% confidence interval, 11.2 to 12.2). At day 14 and day 30, any remaining symptoms were reported in 56.1% and 36% of children, respectively.Prescribed medication use varied, the authors said, from 25 of 96 children (26.0% in the UK) to 228 of 297 children (76.8% in Italy), with bronchodilators and antibiotics being the most commonly prescribed medicines across all countries.Almost half—45.7%—of parents reported missed work days due to a child's illness, ranging from 1.3 days in Spain to 4.1 days in Belgium.In a commentary on the study, experts from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the findings mimic studies conducted in the United States that show a high healthcare burden when young children contract RSV.
Last year's flu vaccine 41% effective in preventing medically attended influenza, data show - Last year's seasonal flu vaccine was 41% effective in preventing medically attended flu, but offered significantly more protection against infections caused by influenza B compared to those caused by either influenza A(H1N1) or A(H3N2). The findings were published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, and are based on outcomes seen among outpatients ages 8 months and with acute respiratory illness in seven states: Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. Polymerase chain reaction testing was used to determine influenza positivity and which type of strain was causing infections. Patients were tested for flu if they reported worsening cough over the past 7 days, among other symptoms. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated with a test-negative design comparing odds of testing positive for influenza among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants, the authors said. Among 6,589 enrolled patients, 2,489 participants (38%) were vaccinated for influenza for the 2023-24 season, and 1,770 of all participants (27%) tested positive for influenza, including 796 for H1N, 563 for influenza B (Victoria lineage), and 323 for H3N2. Patients younger than 50 were more likely to have influenza B than influenza A. "Influenza-positive cases were more likely to be male, of younger age, identify themselves as Black or African American, report better general health, and seek care earlier compared to test-negative controls; cases were less likely to have an underlying health condition than controls," the authors wrote. Among the vaccinated, 90% received an egg-based vaccine. Overall, the adjusted VE against medically attended outpatient influenza A and B viruses was 41% (95% confidence interval, 32% to 49%). Estimated VE was 28% against the H1N1 strain, 68% against influenza B, and 30% against H3N2. Notably, VE against illnesses caused by H1N1 varied significantly by age. Among children 8 months to 8 years, VE was 58%, but the vaccine offered no protection for adults ages 50 to 64 years.
California urges pertussis vaccination amid rising cases -The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) on January 3 warned that the state's pertussis (whooping cough) cases are on the rise and urged pregnant women in their last trimester and family members or caregivers of infants to receive the tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) vaccine.From January to October 2024, the CDPH received reports of more than 2,000 patients, including 62 infants younger than 4 months older who were hospitalized. One of the hospitalized babies died from his or her infection. For comparison, California recorded 400 pertussis cases during the same timeframe in 2023.Caused by Bordetella pertussis, the bacterial disease is highly contagious and can cause severe illness, especially in infants. Tomás J. Aragón, MD, DrPH, CDPH director and state public health officer, said the easing of COVID precautions may be contributing to whooping cough's return to prepandemic levels. "Infants are particularly vulnerable, and that's why CDPH especially encourages people who are pregnant to receive the Tdap vaccine in their third trimester, which will pass along protective antibodies to the baby," he said. Infants can't receive their first DTaP dose until they are 2 months old. Other groups that should receive the vaccine are adolescents ages 11 or 12 years and adults every 10 years. California's jump in pertussis activity mirrors a national trend. The latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) note that six times as many cases were reported in 2024 as of the middle of December compared to the same period in 2023. It added that the number this year is higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.
FDA requires Guillain-Barre label warnings for 2 RSV vaccines -- The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced yesterday that it has required and approved labeling changes for two respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines owing to the risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurologic disorder. The new labeling warnings apply to Pfizer's Abrysvo vaccine and GSK's Arexvy vaccine. For both vaccines, which are used by adults, the required labeling change will reflect that postmarketing observational studies suggest an increased risk of GBS during the 42 days following vaccination. GBS is a rare disease in which the body's immune system damages nerve cells, resulting in muscle weakness and sometimes paralysis. Arexvy was approved in May 2023 for use in adults ages 60 and older, and the FDA subsequently approved an expanded indication for adults ages 50 to 59 years old who are at increased risk for lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV. The FDA approved Abrysvo a few weeks later for people ages 60 and older and later approved indications for adults ages 18 to 59 years old who are at increased risk of RSV infection and for pregnant women in their final 4 weeks of gestation to help protect infants from RSV.
GAO to FDA: Inspect more domestic, foreign food facilities to ensure safe food supply -- The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) hasn't met mandated targets for inspections of domestic and foreign food facilities since 2018. FDA officials, who have said they need more inspectors to meet their targets, haven't developed goals or measures to ensure its inspections are keeping the food supply safe, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said yesterday in a new report. The FDA is tasked with ensuring the safety of nearly 80% of the US food supply, including fruits, vegetables, processed foods, and most seafood. "The U.S. food supply is generally considered safe, but tens of millions of people get sick from foodborne illnesses each year," the GAO wrote. "FDA's inspections are a proactive tool aimed at preventing food safety problems rather than reacting to outbreaks after they happen." On average, the FDA conducted 8,353 routine domestic and 917 foreign food-facility inspections per year from 2018 through 2023, the scope of the report, the GAO noted. The FDA Food Safety Modernization Act directs the FDA to inspect each high-risk domestic food facility at least once every 3 years and non–high-risk facilities every 5 years. "GAO’s analysis of FDA data shows that FDA nearly met its mandated targets for both high-risk and non-high-risk domestic facilities in fiscal years 2018 and 2019, but faced significant challenges in meeting mandated targets beginning in fiscal year 2020—largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic," the report said. "For example, according to FDA data, FDA did not inspect about 7 percent of high-risk domestic facilities due for inspection during fiscal year 2019," it added. "In contrast, the data show that in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, the percentage increased to 40 percent and 49 percent, respectively." FDA inspected far fewer foreign food facilities than the annual target of 19,200 inspections, according to the report. The most annual inspections of foreign food facilities occurred in 2019, with 1,727 inspections, or 9% of the annual target. "FDA considers the existing target to be unrealistic and unachievable," the GAO wrote. "However, FDA has not identified an appropriate annual target and communicated this information to Congress, as we recommended in January 2015."FDA officials have said that inspector understaffing is its greatest barrier to meeting inspection targets. "For example, in July 2024, FDA had a total of 432 investigators—90 percent of the full-time equivalent ceiling—for conducting both domestic and foreign inspections, according to FDA officials," the report said. "Taking steps to determine the appropriate size of its foreign investigator cadre would help FDA better plan its foreign inspection efforts and, in turn, better ensure the safety of imported food for U.S. consumers."The FDA hasn't identified and implemented more procedures to minimize incomplete inspections or develop a formal performance-management process specifically for its food safety inspection efforts, the authors said.
- Because of concerns about the accuracy of pulse oximeters due to the impacts of skin pigmentation and other factors, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today released draft guidance for industry and the FDA to use for nonclinical and clinical performance testing, labeling, and premarket submission. As an example of bias, a 2022 study found that pulse oximetry overestimated arterial oxygen saturation in racial and ethnic minority groups, a trend researchers said could lead to treatment disparities in Black and Hispanic COVID patients.
- Pakistan and Oman are the latest countries outside of Africa to report clade 1 mpox cases, which were reported in December, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latestweekly communicable disease threat report. The ECDC noted, however, that the patients had not traveled to Africa, but rather, as with a clade 1 case reported from India, the patients have a history of travel to the United Arab Emirates, which hasn't reported any known clade 1 cases. The new detections push the number of countries outside of Africa to report clade 1 mpox to 10. Limited secondary transmission has been reported in only 2—the United Kingdom and Germany.
- Media reports have described a rise surge of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) cases in northern China, and though official Chinese sources haven't documented the rise, a Chinese official was quoted as saying that HMPV activity is part of normal winter peak in respiratory virus illnesses. Paul Hunter, MD, with the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, said in a Science Media Centre statement that the virus was first identified 25 years ago and is one of a constellation of viruses that causes common colds, but can cause severe disease in older people, children younger than 2 years, and those with underlying health conditions. He said detections have risen with the increased use of molecular diagnostic panels, so it's not clear if yearly increases are real or due or increased testing. Hunter said HMPV cases are trending a little higher in the UK this season, but he added that there aren't any signs yet that the virus poses a more serious global issue.
HMPV: What to know about China's human metapneumovirus cases - In recent weeks, scenes of hospitals in China overrun with masked people have made their rounds on social media, sparking worries of another pandemic. Beijing has since acknowledged a surge in cases of the flu-like human metapneumovirus (HMPV), especially among children, and it attributed this to a seasonal spike. But HMPV is not like Covid-19, public health experts have said, noting that the virus has been around for decades, with almost every child being infected by their fifth birthday. However, in some very young children and people with weakened immune systems, it can cause more serious illness. HMPV is a virus that will lead to a mild upper respiratory tract infection - practically indistinguishable from flu - for most people. First identified in the Netherlands in 2001, the virus spreads through direct contact between people or when someone touches surfaces contaminated with it. Symptoms for most people include cough, fever and nasal congestion. The very young, including children under two, are most vulnerable to the virus, along with those with weakened immune systems, including the elderly and those with advanced cancer, says Hsu Li Yang, an infectious diseases physician in Singapore. If infected, a "small but significant proportion" among the immunocompromised will develop more severe disease where the lungs are affected, with wheezing, breathlessness and symptoms of croup. "Many will require hospital care, with a smaller proportion at risk of dying from the infection," Dr Hsu said. Like many respiratory infections, HMPV is most active during late winter and spring - some experts say this is because the viruses survive better in the cold and they pass more easily from one person to another as people stay indoors more often. In northern China, the current HMPV spike coincides with low temperatures that are expected to last until March. In fact many countries in the northern hemisphere, including but not limited to China, are experiencing an increased prevalence of HMPV, said Jacqueline Stephens, an epidemiologist at Flinders University in Australia. "While this is concerning, the increased prevalence is likely the normal seasonal increase seen in winter," she said. Data from health authorities in the US and UK shows that these countries, too, have been experiencing a spike in HMPV cases since October last year.
WHO: No unusual patterns seen in China’s respiratory infection surge - Due to interest in reports of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) cases in China, the World Health Organization (WHO) today weighed in on respiratory infection activity in the Northern Hemisphere, including the latest data from China. Media reports have described a surge of respiratory virus activity in China, which included involvement of hMPV and strain on the country’s health system. The virus is one of many common viruses that causes human colds and is known to circulate alongside other winter-season viruses such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).The WHO said flulike illness levels and acute respiratory infection rates have increased in some Northern Hemisphere countries in recent weeks and are above baseline levels. Flu remains elevated, while RSV activity is generally declining, except for in North America. The group pointed out that not all countries test for and track hMPV, which is generally mild but can result in hospitalizations from bronchitis and pneumonia. Data from China through December 29 show that acute respiratory illnesses increased in recent weeks, with detections of seasonal flu, rhinovirus, RSV, and hMPV, especially in the country’s northern provinces. The levels are within the range expected for this time of year, with influenza the most common cause so far. The WHO said it is in contact with Chinese officials and that it has not received any reports of unusual outbreak patterns. “Chinese authorities report that the health care system is not overwhelmed and there have been no emergency declarations or responses triggered,” the WHO added.
France reports its first clade 1b mpox case - France’s health ministry today reported the country’s first clade 1b mpox case, which involves a person from Brittany who hadn’t traveled abroad, but was in contact with two people who had returned from Central Africa. In a statement, officials said an investigation is underway to determine how the patient contracted the virus and to identify others who may be at risk. They said the overall risk to the general public in France and Europe is low, but sporadic cases linked to outbreak countries may occur.The case from France marks the eleventh country outside of Africa to detect clade 1 mpox, which is different than the clade 2 virus circulating globally. Most were imported cases linked to African travel, but detections in India, Pakistan, and Oman were related to travel to the United Arab Emirates.Limited secondary transmission was reported in household index cases in the United Kingdom in October, and Germany in December.Several African countries have been battling mpox outbreaks involving a mix of clades over the past year, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remaining the primary hot spot. The novel clade 1b is driving much of the activity in the DRC and has spread to a handful of other countries. The arrival of the new clade has some with broader transmission patterns, including household spread that has especially affected children.
China reports mpox clade 1b cluster The China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) today announced the country's first confirmed clade 1b mpox cases, which involve a foreigner who had lived in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and four close contacts. In a statement, China CDC said it quickly launched investigations that involve state and provinces, such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin. The four close contacts of the index case-patient mainly had mild symptoms, such as rash. No additional infections have been found among the patients' general contacts. The patients are receiving treatment and are under monitoring.China is the twelfth country outside of Africa to detect clade 1 mpox, which is different from the clade 2 mpox virus spreading globally. The novel clade 1b virus is thought to spread more easily among contacts, including in households. Most cases have been linked to travel to affected African countries. Outside of Africa, limited secondary transmission has now been reported in the United Kingdom, Germany, and China. The clade 1b virus is driving outbreak activity in some of Africa's current hot spots, such as the DRC, where household transmission has especially affected children.
Study warns of emergence, spread of resistance to new drug-resistant TB treatments 0A new study indicates resistance to shorter and less toxic drug regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is emerging and spreading between patients. In a letter published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine, scientists with the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH) and Georgia's National Center for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases say analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes from 27 countries identified more than 500 strains of MDR-TB with additional resistance to at least one of the compounds in the BPaL/M (bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid with or without moxifloxacin) regimen. More than a quarter of those strains appeared to have spread between patients.Endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022, BPaL/M is a 6-month, all-oral drug regimen that is significantly shorter than the previous MDR-TB regimen, which lasted longer than 15 months and involved injectable drugs with severe and painful side effects. Randomized trial data has shown BPaL/M also has a much higher cure rate—90% or higher, compared with 50% and below for the previous regimen. The authors of the letter said that while much of the global burden of MDR-TB is driven by patient-to-patient spread, they thought that acquiring additional resistance to BPaL/M compounds might reduce its competitive fitness and make it less transmissible. They conducted the study to investigate that theory. "While this new regimen is a game changer for patients suffering from MDR-TB, we knew that it will be difficult to outsmart Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria causing TB," senior study author Sébastien Gagneux, PhD, head of the Department Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology at Swiss TPH, said in apress release. "It was therefore crucial to study how the TB bacteria would react to the global roll-out of this new regimen." The researchers began by analyzing the genomes of 6,926 M tuberculosis isolates collected over 13 years in Georgia, a country with a high MDR-TB burden. From those isolates, they identified 60 TB strains with mutations conferring resistance to isoniazid and rifampicin (the first- and second-line drugs for treating drug-susceptible TB), fluoroquinolones, and at least one of the BPaL/M drugs. Further analysis of these strains—defined as "highly drug-resistant"—found that 16 of 58 (28%) were grouped in four genomic clusters in which all the strains had an identical mutational profile, indicating patient-to-patient transmission. To see if transmission of these highly drug-resistant TB strains was occurring elsewhere, the researchers then analyzed 81,576 genomes from 26 countries. They identified 454 highly drug-resistant strains, and 117 of 420 (28%) were linked to direct transmission. "The good news is that the total number of these cases is still low," "However, the fact that more than a quarter of these highly drug-resistant cases are due to patient-to-patient transmission, only two years after WHO endorsed the new regimen, is worrying." The team also found that nine strains carried resistance mutations to all of the BPaL/M drugs. These strains, found in four countries—Belarus, Georgia, India, and South Africa—were classified as "totally drug-resistant." The WHO estimates that 400,000 people globally developed MDR-TB in 2023. A recent survey of national TB program staff members projected that BPAL/M regimens will reach 78% of MDR-TB patients by 2026. The hope is that the shorter regimen will improve uptake and adherence. But the study authors warn that their findings suggest that the longevity of the regimen could be at risk without improvements in diagnostic capacity, infection control, and surveillance.
Polio cases reported in 3 countries -Three countries reported new polio cases this week, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).In Pakistan, one wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case was reported Kyhber Pakhtunkhwa province, with onset of paralysis occurring on November 9. The case brings Pakistan's 2024 case count to 68.Newly-reported polio cases in Nigeria and Indonesia were both caused by circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). In Nigeria, three cVDPV2 cases with onset of paralysis in late October were reported in Kebbi and Kano provinces, bringing the country's 2024 total to 93 cases. In Indonesia, a cVDPV2 case with paralysis onset on May 15 was reported in Maluku Utara province, bringing the country's 2024 total to 7. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom reported another cVDPV2-positive environmental sample, which was collected on December 15. In late 2024, the country reported similar wastewater detections in samples collected in November from London, Leeds, and East Worthing.In 2022, cVDPV2 detections in 19 London sewage samples prompted UK health officials to offer a booster dose of inactivated polio vaccine to children ages 1 through 9 in all London boroughs.
U.S. records first death from bird flu amid growing concerns - A Louisiana patient hospitalized in critical condition with severe bird flu has died, the state health department said Monday, marking the first U.S. death due to the virus. The patient was older than 65 years and was reported to have underlying medical conditions. The patient contracted H5N1 after exposure to a combination of a noncommercial backyard flock and wild birds. While the public health risk for the public remains low, people who work with birds, poultry or cows — or have recreational exposure to them — are at higher risk, officials said. There is no evidence the virus is spreading from person to person, and the agency said the patient remains the only human case of H5N1 in Louisiana. The Louisiana Department of Health did not provide details about when the patient died or what treatment the person received, due to confidentiality. “The Department expresses its deepest condolences to the patient’s family and friends as they mourn the loss of their loved one. Due to patient confidentiality and respect for the family, this will be the final update about the patient,” the agency said in a statement. The U.S. has recorded at least 66 human cases of H5N1. All except for the one in Louisiana were mild, with respiratory symptoms or pink eye. Most of the cases were caused by exposure to infected cattle, while others were found in people working at poultry farms and culling operations. CDC officials have said cases of severe H5N1 illness and deaths are not unexpected. The current outbreak was first detected in dairy cattle in March, and it has since spread to more than 900 herds across 16 states. In May 2024, CDC began reporting additional, sporadic human cases in people who had exposure to infected dairy cows. The news of the patient’s death comes after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last month the virus in the Louisiana patient carried mutations to help it become more transmissible. The virus and mutations in that patient were similar to ones observed in a hospitalized patient in British Columbia, Canada. Both patients carried a version of the virus that is circulating in wild birds, distinct from the one causing the outbreak in dairy cattle.
First death from H5N1 “bird flu” in the US occurs amid surge in multiple infectious diseases - The United States has recorded its first ever fatality from infection with the H5N1 “bird flu” virus. The virus has been circulating in bird and mammalian populations throughout the nation and the world, especially among commercial poultry flocks and cattle herds in the US. This is the first fatality in a total of 66 confirmed human cases in the US to date. The Louisiana Department of Health announced the death from H5N1 on Monday. The patient, who was over the age of 65, was also the first recorded case in the state of Louisiana as well as the first “severe” case of H5N1 in the United States. The patient was exposed to both an infected backyard flock of poultry as well as infected wild birds. The patient was reported to have had multiple conditions prior to their infection that could have made them more vulnerable to adverse outcomes from the infection.The genetic sequence of the virus isolated from the patient is more similar to that of the severe case of H5N1 in British Columbia than the virus widely circulating in cattle and poultry. This fact is significant because of the severity of the illness and the finding that this strain of H5N1 has adaptations that enable it to infect the respiratory system of humans. Such an adaptation is viewed as necessary for the virus to undergo sustained human-to-human transmission, although no evidence exists for that yet.The death comes as H5N1 continues to spread among birds and mammals, and as multiple infectious diseases are surging throughout the human population in the US, including the 10th wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and major spikes in seasonal influenza, norovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and whooping cough.The H5N1 virus continues to spread throughout multiple animal populations. Per USDA data, the number of commercial dairy cattle herds impacted in California surpassed 700 this week. In all, 917 herds spanning 16 states are known to have been impacted, and 40 confirmed human cases are associated with exposure to infected cattle.Per USDA data, over 130 million birds have been infected in all 50 states in over 1,300 separate outbreaks, and 23 confirmed human cases were associated with exposure to infected poultry. This does not include the fatality in Louisiana, which is listed as “other exposure” since the flock was not commercial in nature.The USDA also reported new infections in a number of mammals, including native and non-native feline species, house cats, and foxes in California, Washington, Oregon and Idaho among other states. Notably California, Colorado, Washington and Oregon have been heavily impacted by H5N1.Wastewater surveillance data continues to show that all major California cities have H5N1 virus in wastewater.Meanwhile, seasonal influenza is at high or very high levels in 42 states and moderate levels in 6 states. Test positivity is at 18.6 percent, indicating that the virus is spreading beyond the ability and willingness of the healthcare and public health systems to conduct testing. As of December 28, the most recent data available, over 26,000 people were newly hospitalized with influenza per week.In a stark reminder of the pandemic potential of influenza viruses, the two primary strains circulating are influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (40.7 percent of cases) and influenza A(H3N2) (59.3 percent of cases). The former strain is the “swine flu” strain that caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. The overwhelming danger is that humans acquire simultaneous infection with H5N1 and one of the seasonal influenza strains, and that the co-infection produces a novel virus through genetic reassortment. This could lead to a new virus to which the population has no immunity and that is capable of person-to-person spread, which could spark an entirely new and more deadly pandemic. Per the COVID-19 model of the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC), the 10th wave of the COVID-19 pandemic began in early December. Per the latest PMC report, the United States is now seeing close to 1 million daily new infections, which is a low estimate because two states did not report data in the past week. The PMC model predicts that this wave will peak at 1.4 million daily infections, which would make it the 5th highest out of the 10 pandemic waves thus far. This puts the lie to various claims that “the pandemic is over” or that “the pandemic is progressively diminishing.” The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 continues to evolve to escape humanity’s immune defenses. The latest variant data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), current only to December 21, shows that the XEC variant makes up 45 percent of COVID-19 cases. A recent study in Lancet Infectious Diseases confirms that individuals with immunity to KP3.1.1 have significantly less immunity to XEC.
US reports first fatal H5N1 infection as avian flu strikes more poultry, cats --The Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) today announcedthat a patient previously hospitalized with a severe H5N1 avian flu infection has died. The patient is older than age 65 and had underlying health conditions. Officials had said the person was exposed to the virus through contact with backyard poultry and wild birds. So far, LDH investigators haven't found any other related cases. The news comes as US officials note more avian flu in poultry and in both domestic and wild cats."The Department expresses its deepest condolences to the patient's family and friends as they mourn the loss of their loved one," the LDH said. "Due to patient confidentiality and respect for the family, this will be the final update about the patient."The United States has reported 66 human H5N1 cases since the start of 2024. Most have been mild infections from a genotype circulating in dairy herds. A different genotype carried by wild birds migrating south, however, is posing another threat and has resulted in two severe infections, one of them involving the Louisiana patient and the other a British Columbia teen who is recovering after lengthy intensive care unit treatment. In related news, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in poultry in five states, which include commercial farms in three of them.In Delaware, an outbreak was confirmed at a broiler farm in Kent County that has 125,000 birds, marking the state's first detections in poultry since September 2022. Other states reporting outbreaks at commercial facilities include hard-hit California, which reported new detections at a game bird farm in Butte County that has 44,700 birds, as well as a broiler operation and layer farm in Stanislaus County. In Michigan, the virus was found at two more turkey farms in Ottawa County.The USDA also confirmed the virus in backyard flocks in Arkansas's Sharp County and at four locations in Idaho's Canyon County.APHIS today also confirmed two more outbreaks in dairy cattle, both in California, raising the national total to 917 and the state's total to 701. Also, APHIS today added about 30 more H5N1 detections in mammals, mostly in cat species. The virus was confirmed in 4 domestic cats in California, 3 in Los Angeles County and 1 in Fresno County. The virus also struck a house cat in Washington County, Oregon, and Morrison County, Minnesota. Over the past few weeks, California has reported a few cat deaths in animals exposed to raw pet food and raw milk.Some of the newly reported detections involved wild cats, including a bobcat from Colorado's Larimer County and a mountain lion near Carson City, Nevada. Several of the animals that tested positive appear to be exotic captive wild cats at a sanctuary in Washington's Mason County. Also, there were five other exotic cats that tested positive near Denver, Colorado, as well as a few in California and Idaho.Detections in other mammals include a fox near Denver and a raccoon in Washington's King County.
Cambodian man dies from H5N1 avian flu, possibly after eating sick chickens -- A 28-year-old man from Kampong Cham province in Cambodia has died from an H5N1 avian flu infection after being exposed to and possibly consuming sick chickens, according to a statement translated and posted today by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog.This is the 19th human H5N1 case identified in Cambodia since early 2023. Most recently, in September 2024, the country reported a fatal H5N1 case in a teen girl, caused by a novel reassortant that included internal genes from the newer 2.3.4.4b clade. The 15-year-old girl had handled sick birds in her village in the week prior to her death.The older 2.3.2.1c clade has been has been implicated in poultry outbreaks in Asia for years. Clade 2.3.4.4b is currently being transmitted globally and causing outbreaks among cattle and dairy workers in the United States, as well as infecting birds.In the new Cambodian case, the patient died on January 10 after suffering fever, difficulty breathing, cough, and fatigue. According to the statement, the patient's family raises chickens, and the man is the caretaker and cooked sick chickens for food.Cambodian officials have not yet released details on what clade is implicated in this case.
WHO Says Bird Flu Risk Low After 1st H5N1 Death In US - The World Health Organization (WHO) says that the risk from H5N1 avian influenza remains low after the first H5N1 death was recorded in Louisiana on Monday. "We are concerned, of course, but we look at the risk to the general population, and ... it still remains low," said WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris in a statement to reporters at a Geneva press briefing.When asked if monitoring of the virus was sufficient in the US, she said "They are doing a lot of surveillance. That’s why we’re hearing about it."Over 60 people in the US have contracted bird flu since April, most of whom were farm workers and dairy facility employees, after the virus was found circulating among dairy cattle herds and poultry flocks.The person who died in Louisiana had contracted H5N1 after exposure to wild birds, and a "non-commercial backyard flock," officials reported, adding that it's the only confirmed human case of H5N1 in the state.There has been no recorded person-to-person transmission of the virus, which was first detected in US dairy cattle in March 2024. It has since been confirmed in at least 80 herds in 16 states.In November, a teen in British Columbia, Canada was hospitalized with a severe case of bird flu.As the Epoch Times notes further, health officials have stressed that bird flu is still mainly an animal health issue and that the risk to the public remains low.On Dec. 18, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared an emergency over H5N1, saying the decision was precautionary and because of cases found in dairy cattle. That declaration followed official confirmation that the Louisiana person who developed bird flu was hospitalized.
Fifteen more states enroll with USDA milk testing program - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced that 15 more states have enrolled in its National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS), which boosts the number of participating states to 28 and covers 65% of the nation's milk production.The USDA unveiled a national milk testing order on December 6, which began with 6 states and spelled out a broader strategy for testing milk in the wake of ongoing outbreaks on dairy farms. On December 17, it announced adding 7 more states, which brought the number to 13, representing 8 of the top 15 dairy-producing states.Newly added states announced today are Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, and Virginia. The USDA said the additions bring the agency close to its nationwide milk testing goal. Currently, only two states—California and Texas—have active H5N1 detections in dairy cattle. The last detection in Texas was reported on December 13. Confirmations at California dairy farms appear to have slowed, with the latest two detections reported yesterday.Early results from the NMTS haven't identified any new detections or affected herds in other states. The USDA said any detections found in the NMTS will be reported on its webpage that documents H5N1 detections in livestock. In its NMTS announcement today, the USDA also provided updates on where things stand with vaccines for poultry and cows.Though licensed poultry vaccines exist for some avian flu subtypes, none fully match the more virulent H5N1 strain currently circulating in US poultry. In 2016, the USDA created a poultry vaccine stockpile, but doses have never been deployed. Vaccine rollout in poultry would be difficult and have trade implications."USDA believes it is prudent to again pursue a stockpile that matches current outbreak strains," the aency said, adding that the move doesn't mean implementing vaccination is imminent, but rather officials are moving forward with planning, as well as the purchase of vaccine or manufacturing capacity for vaccine.For cattle, deployment of an H5N1 vaccine matched to the current strain may be more feasible. The USDA said it has streamlined review steps and at least seven candidate vaccines have been approved for field safety trials.In related developments, the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) over the past 2 days confirmed more poultry outbreaks in six states.One involves a large layer farm in North Carolina's Hyde County, which has 2.7 million birds. The North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services said the outbreak is the state's first since February 2024.In Indiana, the virus turned up at a commercial turkey farm in Jay County that has nearly 22,000 birds, the state's first since February 2024. Also, the virus hit backyard poultry flocks in four states: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, and West Virginia.
California announces temporary ban on poultry and cattle exhibits - California's state veterinarian in a January 7 statement announced a ban on all poultry and cattle exhibitions until further notice as part of the state's efforts to curb the spread of H5N1 avian flu to people and to uninfected animals.The virus has become widespread in dairy cows, as well as in commercial and backyard poultry, and Governor Gavin Newsome on December 18 declared a state of emergency to free up more resources to battle the virus.Annette Jones, DVM, state veterinarian, said, "We will continue to assess the threat over the next few months and rescind this ban if the situation changes."In other developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 4 more H5N1 detections in dairy cattle, 3 in California and apparently 1 in Michigan that the state first announced in October 2024. The new confirmations push the national total to 923 and California's total to 706. APHIS also confirmed one more H5N1 outbreak in poultry, which involves a layer farm in Ohio's Darke County that has 245,300 birds.Separately, the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development today reported highly pathogenic avian flu in a backyard flock in Oakland County, which includes the Detroit metro area. Meanwhile, Arizona Game and Fish yesterday urged hunters and falconers to take steps to avoid and prevent the spread of the virus, given recent detections in the state's domestic poultry and wild birds. It said dabbling duck species that carry the virus rarely show illness signs, but Canada geese, eagles, other raptors, and domestic poultry appear to be susceptible to more severe clinical disease.
Avian flu strikes more US poultry on East Coast and in Midwest --The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed more H5N1 avian flu detections in poultry from three states, including on a second commercial broiler farm in Delaware's Kent County.Also, officials confirmed an outbreak at a backyard farm in Michigan's Oakland County that has 100 birds, an event first announced by Michigan's agriculture department yesterday.APHIS also confirmed a detection in Missouri, which involves poultry at a backyard farm housing 20 birds in Perry County. Meanwhile, APHIS confirmed one more H5N1 detection in dairy cattle, which involves another herd in California. The latest addition lifts the national total to 924 in 16 states and puts California's total at 707 since the end of August 2024.In other federal developments, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised its interim guidance for employers to reduce exposure to influenza A (including H5N1) in people working with animals. Changes were made to improve the readability and organization of the guidance, which now covers workers in a wider range of settings, including zoos and sanctuaries. Separately, the Maryland Department of Agriculture (MDA) today announced that preliminary tests have identified avian flu at a broiler operation in Caroline County, which is located on the state's eastern border with Delaware.MDA officials said the outbreak is the first in Maryland's commercial poultry since 2023 and the third in the Delmarva region, a recently affected part of Delaware.
Iceland confirms H5N5 avian flu in cat death - Iceland's Food and Veterinary Authority (MAST) this week announced that highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza has been found during the autopsy of a kitten that died, according to a statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Officials said the 10-week-old kitten died on December 22, shortly after two cats from the same litter died but were not tested. Other littermates had left the home before the other cats were sick and remain asymptomatic.The kittens are from Ísafjörður in the Westfjords region of northwest Iceland, but the one diagnosed as having H5N5 had arrived in Reykjavík, the country's capital.MAST said the same H5N5 strain had been detected in Iceland's wild birds in September 2024 and in poultry in December 2024. It added that the cats likely contracted the virus from wild birds.A separate report to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) said the kittens' main clinical signs were lethargy, loss of appetite, cramps, and stiffness. The most recent quarterly overview of avian flu from the European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Food Safety Agency (ESFA) said H5N5 viruses continue to expand their geographic and species range, with spillovers to domestic birds reported in Iceland, Norway, and the United Kingdom.In a new related development, animal health officials in Greenland reported highly pathogenic H5N5 in a northern fulmar, a sea bird, found dead in October in the northwest, according to notification today from WOAH.
CIDRAP report highlights gaps, offers guidance for possible CWD spillover into people, other species - The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota today published a comprehensive, state-of-the-art report aimed at improving surveillance, research, and response to a potential chronic wasting disease (CWD) spillover from cervids such as deer to people or farm animals. The report, "Chronic Wasting Disease Spillover Preparedness and Response: Charting an Uncertain Future," identifies gaps in spillover preparedness and offers recommendations to support public and animal health agencies' ability to recognize and respond to a species jump. This effort is the first of its kind and expands on consensus reports, such as one recently posted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, by exploring the potential for spillover and the mitigation of the related health and economic consequences. CWD, which affects cervids such as white-tailed deer, elk, and moose, is caused by prions, infectious proteins that trigger abnormal folding in normal proteins, especially in the central nervous system. Infected animals shed CWD prions in body fluids, which can spread to other cervids through direct contact or via the environment. First identified in 1967 in Colorado, CWD has now been identified in 35 US states, Canada, Finland, Norway, South Korea, and Sweden. While no human CWD cases have been identified, increasing disease prevalence in cervids boosts the odds of spillover into people, other wildlife, and livestock. "Emerging prion strains with a greater propensity for cross-species transmission could heighten these concerns," the report said. "In addition to human health risks, CWD spillover could have far-reaching effects on the food supply, economy, global trade, and agriculture." Current CWD response efforts are constrained by inconsistent disease surveillance among states and limited resources that would be grossly insufficient if a spillover event were to occur. There is no vaccine or treatment for the fatal neurodegenerative disease, and inconsistent disease monitoring and limited resources are constraining preparedness. "Since we began working on this report in 2023, concerns about a CWD prion spillover from cervids to other animal species and humans have only continued to grow in importance, and we're simply not prepared should a species jump occur," said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, CIDRAP director. To produce the report, CIDRAP convened five working groups of 67 US and international experts in human health, cervid and production animal health, prion biology and disease diagnostics, carcass and contaminated item disposal, and wildlife health and conservation. The work was supported by a contract from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. Brian Appleby, MD, director of the National Prion Disease Pathology Surveillance Center in Cleveland, Ohio, and co-chair of the CIDRAP CWD human medicine and public health working group, said, "Although basic science research suggests that there is a low likelihood of the disease transmitting to humans, this may change over time due to variations in chronic wasting disease strains as it continues to spread, as well as the possibility of it infecting other animals in which transmission to humans may be more likely." The next step is to take this report to agencies tasked with CWD surveillance and response.
Idaho, Louisiana report CWD cases in captive elk, deer -Both Idaho and Louisiana have reported chronic wasting disease (CWD) detections in captive cervids, and the detection in Idaho marks the second time the prion disease has been found in captive elk in that state. Officials from the Idaho State Department of Agriculture (ISDA) confirmed CWD in an elk from a captive facility in Jefferson County. Officials said the new case had no association with the CWD-positive captive bull elk identified in Madison County in December 2024. The captive facility conducts CWD testing after every cervid death, as part of enhanced screening in place since 2023. According to ISDA, CWD was first detected in wild deer in Idaho in 2021 and the following year in wild elk. Cervids are members of the deer family. Late last week, officials with the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry said that, after they analyzed records of deer transfers following a positive CWD test in a captive deer in Jefferson Davis Parish in December 2024, three deer at separate deer farms in Tangipahoa, St. Landry, and Concordia parishes have tested positive for the prion disease. "These farms, which also participate in the state deer program, have been issued a quarantine restricting movement into or out of the facility, including live deer or deer products," the agency said. According to the Natchez Democrat, the deer in Concordia Parish is 2-year-old doe. The animal is part of a hunting herd of 60 deer, all now quarantined.CWD is an always-fatal prion disease affecting elk, moose, reindeer, and deer. It was first detected in North America in 1967 in a captive mule deer in Colorado. Prions are misfolded proteins that affect the brain and nervous system.
CWD shows up in Chippewa County, Wisconsin, for first time in wild deer -Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected in a wild deer in Chippewa County, Wisconsin, for the first time, prompting the renewal of baiting and feeding bans in two counties.The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) reported the positive case of the fatal neurodegenerative disease yesterday in a 1-year-old buck harvested by a hunter within 10 miles of the Barron and Dunn county borders.In accordance with state law, Chippewa County will renew its 3-year deer baiting and feeding ban, and Barron County will renew its 2-year baiting and feeding bans. Dunn County already has a 3-year baiting and feeding ban and thus will be unaffected by the finding."Baiting or feeding deer encourages them to congregate unnaturally around a shared food source where infected deer can spread CWD through direct contact with healthy deer or indirectly by leaving behind infectious prions in their saliva, blood, feces and urine," the DNR wrote.The Wisconsin DNR has been tracking the state's wild white-tailed deer population for CWD since 1999, with the first cases identified in 2002.CWD is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which spread among cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but some experts fear it could cause illness similar to another prion disease: bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns against eating meat from infected animals.
Brown County, Texas, reports its first confirmed CWD case -A 3.5-year-old white-tailed doe on a high-fence ranch in Brown County in central Texas has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), marking the first case of the fatal neurodegenerative disease in the county, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) reportedtoday."The detection occurred on a ranch registered as a deer breeder release site and identified as having received deer from a CWD-positive breeding facility reported in 2024," TPWD said in a news release. "Testing hunter-harvested deer allows animal health officials to assess disease presence and was required as part of the quarantine issued for this property epidemiologically traced to a facility with a CWD-positive detection."CWD is a slow, progressive disease that affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. It's caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which spread through direct contact or environmental contamination. While the disease hasn't been observed in people, hunters are advised not to eat meat from a sick cervid and to use precautions when handling the carcass."Landowners and hunters are encouraged to implement sound wildlife management practices, such as adequate deer harvest and management of healthy native habitat, to help mitigate disease impacts on the deer populations, especially in areas where CWD has been detected," TPWD wrote.The disease was first identified in Texas in 2012 in free-ranging mule deer in the Hueco Mountains near the border with New Mexico. Since then, it has since been detected in Texas captive and free-ranging cervids, including white-tailed deer, mule deer, red deer, and elk.
Biden administration declines to remove grizzly bears from endangered list - The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) will keep endangered species protections for grizzly bears in place in most of the western U.S., the agency announced Wednesday, rebuffing states that petitioned for their removal. In its announcement, the USFWS declined petitions from both Wyoming and Montana but proposed to allow private landowners to kill bears to protect livestock, and without a permit if livestock are in imminent danger. However, it left protections in place for much of the population in Idaho, Montana, Washington state and Wyoming. “This reclassification will facilitate recovery of grizzly bears and provide a stronger foundation for eventual delisting,” USFWS Director Martha Williams said in a statement. “And the proposed changes to our … rule will provide management agencies and landowners more tools and flexibility to deal with human/bear conflicts, an essential part of grizzly bear recovery.” Advocates of delisting the bears have pointed to their threat to livestock and steadily rebounding populations, including recent expansions into western Washington. Grizzlies number about 2,000 in the 48 contiguous states, up from fewer than 1,000 in the 1970s but only a fraction of what was once 50,000. The George W. Bush and first Trump administrations attempted to delist the species but were blocked in court. House Natural Resources Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) blasted the announcement in a statement Wednesday. “The only reasonable announcement by the USFWS today would have been a total delisting of the grizzly bear in these ecosystems. USFWS is blatantly ignoring science in their decision by hiding behind bureaucratic red tape,” Westerman said. “Their decision endangers communities, especially farmers and ranchers, who live under the threat of grizzly bear attacks.” Conservation groups, however, praised the decision, with Andrea Zaccardi, carnivore conservation program legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity, saying it will give grizzlies “a real chance at long-term recovery, instead of being gunned down and mounted on trophy walls.”
EPA finds formaldehyde poses unreasonable risk to human health - The Biden administration has officially determined the chemical formaldehyde poses an “unreasonable” risk to human health and should be regulated.The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said this week that “formaldehyde presents an unreasonable risk of injury to human health, specifically to workers and consumers.”The agency noted that the chemical “is found nearly everywhere” and so “people are routinely exposed to formaldehyde in indoor and outdoor environments, often from more than one source at a time.”It also said that long-term exposure to the substance can cause cancer, as well as reduced lung function and worsened asthma. As a result, it said it would try to address the “unreasonable risk” by proposing a rule to protect workers and consumers. “Having made that unreasonable risk determination, [the Toxic Substances Control Act] requires EPA to issue a rule that fully eliminates formaldehyde’s unreasonable risks,” Jonathan Kalmuss-Katz, a senior attorney at environmental group Earthjustice, told The Hill. However, the actual rule to regulate formaldehyde will be up to the incoming Trump administration. The president-elect’s first administration took a less stringent approach to chemical regulation. Kalmuss-Katz said that because of the finding, the Trump administration will be “legally obligated to regulate formaldehyde.” However, it is possible the administration could try to reverse the Biden-era determination. The last Trump administration faced significant scrutiny over its handling of formaldehyde after reports that it suppressed findings linking the substance to cancer. In response to the Biden EPA’s finding, the American Chemistry Council, a chemical industry lobbying group, stressed the importance of formaldehyde and said the determination was based on a “flawed” assessment.“Without robust formaldehyde manufacturing in the United States, we could face increased product prices, reduced economic output, and a loss of the U.S.’s competitive edge,” the chemical industry group said. It vowed to “engage the next Administration and safeguard access to this essential chemical building block.” The EPA’s new determination found that 58 out of 63 uses of formaldehyde that fall under its jurisdiction include unreasonable risks. This includes uses in consumer car products, crafting supplies and leather goods. It also said that workers in places where the chemical is used are “at the most risk” The determination does not apply to hair straightening products — a common use of formaldehyde that receives significant public scrutiny — as this falls under the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) jurisdiction.The FDA has indicated it would propose a rule to ban the chemical’s use in hair straightening, but it has yet to do so. At this point, it would not have time to fully implement a ban before the Trump administration takes over. An FDA spokesperson declined to comment on the rule’s timing.
Wastewater treatment plant testing reveals limited removal of organofluorines, putting millions at potential risk - A research team led by Harvard University has found elevated concentrations of organofluorine in U.S. municipal wastewater. More than 60% consisted of widely prescribed fluorinated pharmaceuticals, while 6 federally regulated perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) made up less than 10% of total extractable organofluorine in samples. The work is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.PFAS are synthetic chemicals with thousands of variations containing organofluorine structures with a powerfully bonded chain of carbon and fluorine atoms. The strong bond gives the molecules nonstick properties that are widely used for consumer products like cookware, the inner lining of food packaging, waterproofing, and stain-resistant carpets and clothes. Because the carbon-fluorine bond is one of the strongest, these chemicals do not degrade easily in the environment, earning the compound the title of "forever chemical." Global contamination of soil and groundwater systems with PFAS is so replete that it has even been detected high on the Tibetan plateau, carried there by rain. Currently, there are no safe and cost-effective strategies for reducing PFAS contamination once it is in the environment. Wastewater treatment facilities serve most of the US population, yet less than 25% of measured organofluorine is removed even under advanced processes. In the study titled "High organofluorine concentrations in municipal wastewater affect downstream drinking water supplies for millions of Americans," researchers sampled 8 large wastewater treatment facilities with similar design capacities for organofluorine levels. Researchers used bulk and targeted methods to detect extractable organofluorine, including PFAS, precursors, and fluorinated pharmaceuticals. A national wastewater dilution model was applied to simulate how discharges mix with drinking water intakes under average and low flow conditions. Less than 10% of the extractable organofluorine in wastewater originated from six regulated PFAS. Pharmaceuticals accounted for 62% to 75% of the measured organofluorine load. Removal rates did not exceed 24% at any facility. Over 20 million Americans were estimated to rely on drinking water supplies prone to contamination levels above regulatory thresholds when wastewater-derived PFAS were considered—a significant concern. While this is treated wastewater release, not the water coming out of the home tap, it will mix with other water sources and "eventually" be redirected to household use again. That "eventually" might happen quicker than most people imagine. If you live anywhere near a river, your community likely uses the water from that river. So do the towns and cities upstream and downstream of your community. They purify the river water for household use, use it, treat it in a separate facility as wastewater and then mix the treated wastewater back into the river. The process repeats over and over again downstream, occasionally diverting for farming, commercial or industrial uses. By the time a coastal city uses water, it may already have been purified, used and treated hundreds or thousands of times, or at least mixed with water that has been.
Toxic PFAs impacting Americans' drinking water via treated wastewater: Study -- Nearly 7 percent of Americans may be exposed to hazardous levels of “forever chemicals” through treated municipal wastewater, a new study has found. These approximately 23 million people may be consuming these toxic compounds, also known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), in their drinking water, according to the study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. They are doing so due to the failure of wastewater treatment facilities to effectively remove PFAS from their purified water streams, which ultimately reenter municipal drinking water networks, the study authors found. And that figure is only likely to rise, since treated wastewater continues to make up an increasingly significant proportion of drinking water resources, the researchers warned. There are thousands of types of PFAS, synthetic compounds found in a variety of household products, waterproof apparel, industrial discharge and certain types of firefighting foam. These so-called forever chemicals persist in both the human body and in the environment, and many have been linked to cancers and other serious illnesses. While the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established drinking water regulations for six types of PFAS last year, those are only six of as many as 15,000. A team of scientists led by Bridger Ruyle, an environmental engineer at New York University, set out to track the presence of organofluorines — a family of compounds that includes PFAS and are often ingredients in prescribed medications — in the wastewater of eight large municipal treatment systems. Ruyle and his colleagues found that as much as 75 percent of the extractable organofluorine present in the treated wastewater contained pharmaceuticals that are not currently subject to EPA regulations. The six regulated PFAS, meanwhile, made up less than 10 percent of the extractable organofluorines, according to the study. Even though these systems — which resemble those serving about 70 percent of the US population — employ advanced sewage treatment technologies, their maximum efficiency rate for removing organofluorines was less than 25 percent. Based on results from a national wastewater dilution model, the authors calculated that PFAS discharges in wastewater may be permeating the drinking water supplies of as many as 23 million Americans. “These results emphasize the importance of further curbing ongoing PFAS sources and additional evaluations of the fate and toxicity of fluorinated pharmaceuticals,” the authors stated. Nonetheless, the researchers also acknowledged that realizing such goals will be complex, as U.S. regulators typically consider risks associated with individual toxicants, rather than the complex mixtures that exist in wastewater. “This poses a challenge for regulating PFAS, pharmaceuticals, and other organofluorine compounds because there are potentially tens of thousands of these chemicals in commerce,” the authors noted. While the researchers stressed that experts have widely called for a class-based method for regulating PFAS, industry voices have long been opposed to such an approach. The authors also acknowledged that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration “does not consider the environmental persistence and secondary human and ecological exposures to pharmaceuticals.” Ultimately, the scientists called for further research that would include random samplings of a wider array of diverse wastewater treatment plants, as well as improvements to wastewater quality management and infrastructure. “Pharmaceuticals that are persistent enough to reenter drinking water supplies, such as the highly recalcitrant organofluorine compounds in this study, could therefore affect otherwise healthy and/or sensitive human populations,” the researchers added.
Forever chemicals: Wastewater treatment plants funnel PFAS into drinking water - Wastewater treatment facilities are a major source of PFAS contamination in drinking water in the US – they discharge enough of the “forever chemicals” to raise concentrations above safe levels for an estimated 15 million people or more. They can also release long-lasting prescription drugs into the water supply.Even though these plants clean wastewater, they do not destroy all the contaminants added upstream – and the chemicals that remain behind are released back into the same waterways that supply drinking water. “It’s a funnel into the environment,” says Bridger Ruyle at New York University. “You capture a bunch of things from a bunch of different places, and it’s all released in one place.”Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are of particular concern because they contain carbon-fluorine bonds, which make them extremely persistent in the environment. Regular exposure to several types of PFAS has been associated with increased risk for many health problems, from liver damage to various forms of cancer. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently set strict limits in drinking water for six of the best-studied PFAS. Wastewater treatment facilities are a known source of PFAS contamination in the sewage sludgethey produce as a by-product, which is sometimes used for fertiliser. To find out whether similar contamination remains in the treated water, Ruyle and his colleagues measured the concentration of PFAS and other molecules that contain carbon-fluorine bonds in wastewater at eight large treatment facilities around the US.Their findings suggest wastewater treatment plants across the US discharge tens of thousands of kilograms of fluorine-containing compounds into the environment each year, including a substantial amount of PFAS. Once treated wastewater is discharged from a facility, it mixes with natural waters in rivers and lakes. “That’s going to create a downstream drinking water problem,” says Ruyle.Applying these figures within a model of the US drinking water system, the researchers estimated wastewater could raise concentrations of PFAS above EPA limits in the drinking water of around 15 million people. During droughts, when there is less natural water to dilute the wastewater, the model suggests concentrations would rise above the limit for as many as 23 million people. And Ruyle says these may be conservative estimates – their model assumes the natural waters do not already contain PFAS. “It demonstrates that wastewater treatment plants are really important sources for these compounds,” says Carsten Prasse at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, who was not involved with the study. There are ways to remove or destroy PFAS in water, and more drinking water facilities are installing such systems, but currently, “our wastewater treatment plants are not set up to deal with this”, he says.
Prescription drugs may be leaching PFAS, toxic chemicals into wastewater - Washington Post The widespread use of pharmaceuticals in America is introducing even more toxic “forever chemicals” into the environment through wastewater, according to a study released Monday, and large municipal wastewater treatment plants are not capable of fully filtering them out. The plants’ inability to remove compounds known as organofluorines from wastewater before it enters drinking water supplies becomes even more pronounced during droughts and could affect up to 23 million people, scientists wrote in an article published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Most of the compounds came from commonly prescribed medications including antidepressants and statins, the researchers found. They found that the organofluorines — a group that includes per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS — were found in wastewater in eight large municipal treatment plants. The wastewater continued to contain high concentration of organofluorines and other compounds that meet the definition of PFAS even after treatment. The researchers found up to three-quarters of the extractable compounds were from 12 commonly prescribed fluorinated medicines, including antidepressants, statins and medications used to treat Type 2 diabetes and HIV. The facilities removed less than 25 percent of the compounds during treatment, the researchers found. Bridger Ruyle, the study’s lead author, said that the fluorinated chemicals from pharmaceuticals aren’t fully metabolized and leave the body with waste. They then enter the wastewater stream and the environment. “That means that downstream aquatic organisms and potentially people drinking water may also now be exposed to these pharmaceuticals,” Ruyle said. The American Chemical Society and the Product Quality Research Institute did not immediately respond to requests for comment. PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, are a class of thousands of carbon-fluorine bonded compounds manufactured to make products and coatings that repel grease, water, oil and heat. The persistent chemicals are found in hundreds of household items including nonstick cookware, menstrual products, dental floss and medicines. In the spring, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized the nation’s first drinking water standard for PFAS, limiting six specific PFAS chemicals from a class of thousands. The agency acted after mounting evidence suggested those chemicals in water can pose a health risk to people at even the smallest detectable levels of exposure. Wastewater collected from homes, industrial sites and businesses is typically transported to wastewater treatment plants. There, the wastewater is filtered, disinfected and discharged into streams and rivers. Some communities — particularly in times of drought — draw on water that includes the discharge for drinking water. But drought only exacerbates the amount of organofluorines found in treated wastewater that is used for drinking, the researchers found. This is because natural water supplies are diminished and do not dilute the treated wastewater before it enters the drinking water supply. Ruyle said the problem could become more pronounced as water becomes scarcer and populations grow, making it more difficult for natural water systems to dilute waste and communities more reliant on using treated wastewater for drinking. In the wastewater he tested, Ruyle said, regulated PFAS only made up about 8 percent of the PFAS found. The rest of the fluorinated compounds and PFAS present in the wastewater are not regulated by the EPA, he said. Some included precursor chemicals that can chemically transform into the regulated PFAS once in the environment, he said. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances have been linked to several kinds of cancer, infertility, high cholesterol, low birth weights, and negative effects on the liver, thyroid and immune system. The EPA does not regulate PFAS in wastewater but has “issued guidance to state permitting programs recommending that wastewater systems monitor for PFAS using the best-available methods and, where they are detected, take steps to reduce them using pretreatment authorities,” said Zachary Schafer, director for policy at EPA’s Office of Water. The National Association of Clean Water Agencies, which represents wastewater treatment plants, said that in drought-stricken areas, the connection is closer between drinking water sources and wastewater. “Anything we eat, drink or put into our bodies … whatever types of compounds, chemicals, pollutants, whatever words you want to use, that’s all going to make its way to a wastewater treatment plant,” said Adam Krantz, the association’s chief executive. “It’s all one water. The water cycle remains the water cycle, and there’s only as much water as we currently have on Earth.”
Early ‘forever chemicals’ exposure could affect economic success in adulthood – study - Early life exposure to toxic PFAS “forever chemicals” could affect economic success in adulthood, new first-of-its-kind research suggests.The Iowa State University and US Census Bureau working paper compared the earnings, college graduation rates and birth weights of two groups of children – those raised around military installations that had firefighting training areas, and those who lived near bases with no firefighting training site.The military began using PFAS-laden firefighting foam in the early 1970s, which frequently contaminated the drinking water supplies in and around bases.Those who lived in regions with firefighting training areas earned about 1.7% on average less later in life, and showed a graduation rate about 1% lower. Those born between 1981 and 1988 earned about $1bn less in today’s earnings, or about $1,000 a person on average, compared with those who did not live near the firefighting training sites.The data also shows lower birth weights among the population – a factor linked to lower economic success later in life.The findings “highlight the importance of careful scrutiny of novel chemicals”, said Irene Jacz, a study co-author and Iowa State economist.“We think that there’s a causal effect from PFAS here but it’s really hard to say, ‘Oh it’s all brain chemistry, or health effects’, so there’s a need for more research” Jacz said. The paper is not yet peer-reviewed, but will soon go through the process. PFAS are a class of about 15,000 compounds typically used to make products that resist water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down and accumulate, and are linked to cancer, kidney disease, liver problems, immune disorders, birth defects and other serious health problems.
Analysis links fluoride exposure to low IQ but finds 'high risk of bias' in most studies - An analysis of more than 70 studies on fluoride and IQ levels concluded there was a relationship between higher levels of the common water additive and lower IQ levels in children, though a large percentage of the studies were noted as having a “high risk of bias.” The meta-analysis published in the medical journal JAMA Pediatrics was supported by and conducted on behalf of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences under the National Institutes of Health.Assessors looked at 74 studies sourced internationally for the analysis. Studies from China accounted for the majority of those reviewed at 45 studies, or 61 percent. India was the second most represented country in the analysis with 12 studies included.The studies were also evaluated for bias, and 52 out of the 74 studies, or 70 percent, were found to have a “high risk of bias.”Without excluding any of the studies, the authors concluded that their review found an inverse relationship between higher levels of fluoride in drinking water and urine and children’s IQ. The analysis found that children exposed to higher levels of fluoride had “statistically significantly” lower IQ scores. When only the 22 studies with low risk of bias were analyzed, the inverse association between fluoride exposure and IQ levels remained the same in studies that looked at fluoride in drinking water at levels of less than 4 mg/L, less than 2 mg/L and less than 1.5 mg/L.The inverse association between fluoride levels and IQ levels remained the same when the analysis accounted for age, sex, country and exposure timing. The assessors also noted that there are no known epidemiological studies on fluoride exposure and children’s IQ in the U.S., making the results of their analysis difficult to apply to the U.S. population.They also noted there was “limited data and uncertainty” regarding the effect of fluoride on children’s IQ levels when fluoride from drinking water was less than 1.5 mg/L. The US Public Health Service recommends a fluoride concentration of 0.7 mg/L, which public water systems across the country abide by. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President-elect Trump’s nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services, is vehemently opposed to water fluoridation and has stated one of his goals if confirmed would be to remove the additive from the U.S. water supply. Water fluoridation is astate and local decision, but theoretical avenues for banning the practice at the federal level do exist. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) under the Department of Health and Human Services released the findings of its own evaluation of fluoride’s impact on neurodevelopment and cognition in 2024. The NTP concluded that “higher levels of fluoride exposure, such as drinking water containing more than 1.5 milligrams of fluoride per liter, are associated with lower IQ in children.” However, the office noted there wasn’t enough data to determine if the 0.7 mg/L concentration of fluoride used throughout the U.S. similarly has a negative impact on children’s IQs.
Lead pollution in Roman Empire linked to cognitive decline: Study --Atmospheric lead pollution likely caused cognitive decline among citizens of the Roman Empire, according to research published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Researchers analyzed ice core records for an approximately thousand-year period corresponding roughly with the period from the Roman Republic through the decline of the empire, focusing on the two-century period known as the Pax Romana. They used computer modeling of lead in the atmosphere to estimate atmospheric levels across the European continent, hypothesizing that IQ levels fell two to three points in Europe. Research has long shown a link between lead exposure and cognitive decline, particularly in low-income areas where lead infrastructure has yet to be replaced. However, researchers said the study is the first to extrapolate effects on populations from thousands of years ago. “This is the first study to take a pollution record from an ice core and invert it to get atmospheric concentrations of pollution and then assess human impacts,” said lead author Joe McConnell, a research professor of hydrology at Nevada’s Desert Research Institute (DRI), in a statement. “The idea that we can do this for 2,000 years ago is pretty novel and exciting.” Unlike the 20th century, when lead poisoning was primarily due to exposure to leaded gasoline fumes, Roman-era lead exposure was predominantly a byproduct of silver mining. The mining and smelting process involved melting down galena, an ore of lead that produced thousands of ounces of lead during the process. “Lead is known to have a wide range of human health impacts, but we chose to focus on cognitive decline because it’s something we can put a number on,” said co-author Nathan Chellman, an assistant research professor of snow and ice hydrology at the DRI, in a statement. “An IQ reduction of 2 to 3 points doesn’t sound like much, but when you apply that to essentially the entire European population, it’s kind of a big deal.”
Report urges new chemical regulations to protect children's health -- Nations must start testing and regulating chemicals and chemical products as closely as the current systems that safeguard prescription drugs or risk rising rates of chronic illnesses among children, according to a New England Journal of Medicine report by a group of experts writing as the Consortium for Children's Environmental Health. Global chemical inventories contain an estimated 350,000 products—such as manufactured chemicals, chemical mixtures, and plastics. Despite the risks of environmental pollution and human exposure, the manufacture of synthetic chemicals and plastics is subject to insufficient legal or policy constraints. That regulatory vacuum must be replaced by new laws that prioritize health protection over the rampant production of chemicals and plastics, according to the co-authors, who include Boston College epidemiologist Philip Landrigan, MD, environmental law scholar David Wirth, biologist Thomas Chiles, and epidemiologist Kurt Straif. "Under new laws, chemicals should not be presumed harmless until they are proven to damage health," the authors said. "Instead, chemicals and chemical-based products should be allowed to enter markets and remain on markets only if their manufacturers can establish through rigorous, independent, premarket testing that they are not toxic at anticipated levels of exposure." In addition, the authors say chemical manufacturers and brands that market chemical products should be required to monitor their products after they have been released to the market in the same way that prescription drugs are monitored in order to evaluate any long-term negative health effects. The call to action is the result of a two-year project by a group of independent scientists from 17 high-profile scientific institutions in the U.S. and Europe. The report was developed to enable a coordinated approach to reducing the ever-increasing levels of chronic disease being faced by children around the world. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the principal causes of morbidity and mortality in children today, the authors note. Their incidence and prevalence are on the rise. Emerging research links multiple NCDs in children to manufactured synthetic chemicals. In the past half century, NCDs in children have risen sharply:
- Incidence of childhood cancer has increased by 35%
- Male reproductive birth defects have doubled in frequency
- Neurodevelopmental disorders now affect one child in six, and autism spectrum disorder is diagnosed in one child in 36
- Pediatric asthma has tripled in prevalence
- Prevalence of pediatric obesity has nearly quadrupled and driven a sharp increase in type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents
- Certain chemicals have led to a reduction in IQ and thus massive economic damage
Most synthetic chemicals and related products are produced from fossil fuels—gas, oil, and coal. Production has expanded 50-fold since 1950, and is projected to triple again by 2050. Environmental pollution and human exposure are widespread. Yet manufacture of synthetic chemicals and plastics is subject to few legal or policy constraints. Unlike pharmaceuticals, synthetic chemicals are brought to market with little prior assessment of their health impacts and almost no postmarketing surveillance for longer-term adverse health effects. Fewer than 20% of these chemicals have been tested for toxicity, and fewer still for toxic effects in infants and children. Associations between widely used chemicals and disease in children continue to be discovered with distressing frequency, and it is likely that there are additional, still unknown links. Safeguarding children's health against manufactured synthetic chemicals will require a fundamental shift in chemical law that takes a more precautionary approach and prioritizes health protection over the unconstrained production of synthetic chemicals and plastics, specifically:
States struggle to curb food waste despite policies - The United States generates more food waste than all but two countries. To address this, the federal government set a goal to cut food waste in half by 2030 compared to 2016 levels, to about 164 pounds per person annually. But a study published in Nature Food and led by University of California, Davis, reveals that current state policies are falling short. Since 2016, per capita food waste has increased instead of decreasing."We're just five years away from 2030, so it's quite alarming how little progress we have made," said first author Sarah Kakadellis, a postdoctoral researcher with the UC Davis Department of Food Science and Technology. "More comprehensive policies need to be implemented as soon as possible."The study examined how state policies align with the federal targets. States determine what policies to implement. Researchers found that state policies emphasize food waste recycling methods like composting and anaerobic digestion, rather than prevention and rescue strategies, such as donating to food banks or repurposing food for animal feed. In 2021, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency excluded recycling from its definition of food waste to reflect environmental and ethical dimensions."We have a huge portion of the American population that is suffering from food insecurity, yet we waste more than a third of the food we produce," said Kakadellis. "Instead of recycling our excess food, we should be redirecting as much as we can to populations that need it."Recycling or composting food also has environmental downsides. While they keep food out of landfills, food production still consumes significant resources."When we waste food, we're wasting all the resources it takes to grow that food, including energy, water and fertilizer. Meanwhile, wasted food represents 8–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions," said principal investigator Edward Spang, an associate professor in the Department of Food Science and Technology and director of the Robert Mondavi Institute for Wine and Food Science at UC Davis. Researchers assessed states' potential to reduce food waste through four policyareas: prevention (date labeling), rescue (liability protection and tax incentives), repurposing (animal feed), and recycling (organic waste bans and waste recycling laws). They found that recycling policies offered the largest diversion potential. But even when including recycling, many states still fell short of the target. Only California, Vermont and Arizona were projected to achieve the goal of reducing waste to 164 pounds per person. Under the revised EPA definition that excludes recycling, states could divert as little as 11 pounds to as high as 30 pounds per person. Washington could divert close to a third of its current food waste, followed closely by California at 26%.Americans would still generate an average of 328 pounds of food waste per person annually, double the federal target. Despite ranking last for its diversion potential, Arkansas was the only state that came closest to reaching the federal goal of generating 164 pounds of food waste per person by 2030. Arizona, for example, has the highest potential to divert food waste under existing state policies. It's also one of the highest generators of food waste. On the other end of the spectrum, Arkansas generates significantly less waste than other states and is close to the national goal, which makes it difficult to make further cuts.
Climate change is hampering US apple quality and output: Study --Many of the nation’s biggest apple-generating regions are confronting challenges in crop growth and development, due to the impacts of a changing climate, a new study has found.While apple orchards nationwide have become increasingly vulnerable to warming trends, the three U.S. counties with the biggest output are among the most affected, according to the study, published on Monday in Environmental Research Letters.At the top of that list was Yakima County, Wash., which is home to more than 48,800 acres of orchards — and which showed worrisome signs in five of six metrics analyzed by Washington State University scientists. Next in line were Kent County, Mich., and Wayne County, N.Y.“We shouldn’t take the delicious apples we love to consume for granted,” said corresponding Deepti Singh, a Washington State climate scientist, in a statement. “Changing climate conditions over multiple parts of the growth cycle pose potentially compounding threats to the production and quality of apples.” Worldwide, the U.S. is ranked third among apple exporters, trailing behind the European Union and China during the 2022-23 season, according to the US Department of Agriculture. At a state level, Washington is the biggest annual producer, followed by Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania. The top markets for U.S. apples are Mexico, Canada, Taiwan and Vietnam. Using historical trends and climate metrics, the Washington State scientists evaluated six metrics that could affect apples over more than four decades, from 1979 to 2022. The metrics included the number of extreme heat days, warm nights and cold days, as well as the quantity of chilly hours needed for a tree to go dormant, the last day of spring frost and the quantity of “growing degree days,” or those above a certain temperature that are conducive to apple growth. Shifts in these metrics, the authors explained, can alter the time when apple flowers bloom, while also raising the risk of sunburn on apples and influencing appearance and quality. The U.S. West has undergone the strongest such detrimental changes across multiple metrics, according to the study. Making these developments more complex is the fact that apple trees are perennials — meaning, they bear fruit for many years. “What goes on in different seasons can affect long-term health as well as the performance and productivity of the apple tree during that specific season,” co-author Lee Kalcsits, a Washington State tree physiologist, said in a statement. “It just keeps going around in a cycle.”
President Biden signs bipartisan outdoor recreation bill into law -President Biden on Monday signed a bipartisan bill aimed at boosting outdoor recreation weeks after it cleared the Senate. The bill, the Expanding Public Lands Outdoor Recreation Experiences Act, will expand opportunities for Americans in public outdoor spaces like national parks and forests. Its provisions include improved access for disabled people and military veterans, protections for rock climbing, better access to public lands and waters for recreational purposes and abridged permitting processes and reduced fees for small businesses that depend on public lands. It also officially allows for the use of fixed rock-climbing anchors, resolving an earlier controversy in which some areas sought to restrict such anchors in national forest and park areas. The bill passed the Republican-majority House by voice vote in April, with Natural Resources Committee Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) co-sponsoring. In December, amid the House’s struggle to pass legislation to fund the U.S. government, the bill passed the Senate by unanimous consent. “This influential bipartisan legislation will create new opportunities for climbers and bikers, increase access for veterans and service members, support small businesses and communities in the outdoor recreation economy and help modernize and improve visitor experiences,” Westerman said following the December passage. “I’m proud to support this legislation and thankful for all the hard work leading to this incredible win.” The relatively noncontroversial nature of the legislation stands in contrast to another natural resources-related move by the White House Monday, when Biden announced he would impose new restrictions on offshore oil drilling. President-elect Trump vowed to undo the move upon taking office, while Westerman said the newly seated Congress “will use every tool, including reconciliation, to restore and unleash these revenues, fueling conservation, coastal resilience, and energy independence, and ensuring America—not OPEC, Russia or China—leads the world.”
Flight cancellations across US amid major winter storm -Flight cancellations and delays are stacking up as a major winter storm makes its way across the East Coast. As of about 10 a.m. EST, there were 1,525 flight cancellations and 1,931 flight delays within, into or out of the United States on Monday. Those flight cancellations hit the Washington, D.C., area particularly hard. At Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), 60 percent of all outgoing flights were canceled, totaling 239 cancellations. At Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI), 38 percent of outgoing flights were canceled, for a total of 109 cancellations. And at Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD), 24 percent of outgoing flights were canceled, for a total of 92 flights. At DCA, 2 percent, or 11 flights, were delayed. At BWI, 12 percent, or 34 flights, were delayed. And at IAD, 7 percent, or 28 flights, were delayed. The storm continued to ground flights in the central U.S. as well. At St. Louis Lambert International Airport (STL) in Missouri, 42 percent, or 93 flights, were canceled, and 5 percent were delayed. At Kansas City International Airport (MCI), 37 percent, or 54 flights, were canceled, and 17 percent were delayed. And Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG), 34 percent, or 51 flights, were canceled, and 4 percent were delayed. Both Indianapolis International Airport (IND) and Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport (SDF) saw more than a quarter of flights canceled. A major winter storm brought snow, ice, wind and falling temperatures to much of the country heading into this week, as the storm makes its way across central and Southern states to the East Coast. Snow and ice blanketed major roads across Kansas, western Nebraska and parts of Indiana. Nearly 300,000 customers were without power early Monday across Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, West Virginia, Illinois and Missouri, according to electric utility tracking website PowerOutage.us. The National Weather Service issued winter storm warnings for Kansas and Missouri, where blizzard conditions brought wind gusts of up to 45 mph. The warnings extended to New Jersey for Monday and into early Tuesday.
Ice storm hits Kansas and Missouri - videos) Multiple accidents have been reported due to ice accumulations on roads across Kansas and Missouri on Saturday, January 4, 2025, as a potent winter storm brought severe weather conditions to the region. The storm delivered freezing rain, sleet, and snow, creating hazardous travel conditions and prompting authorities to issue warnings for drivers to stay off the roads unless absolutely necessary. Widespread freezing drizzle began developing in several areas on Saturday, January 4, leading to ice accumulation on roads, causing slick and hazardous conditions. Thunder and sleet were reported at the Eisenhower Airport, which recorded an ice accumulation of 4.6 mm (0.18 inches) as of Saturday evening. Meanwhile, as of Saturday evening, Colby reported the highest ice accumulation in Kansas so far with 10.2 mm (0.4 inches). Russell Airport and Hutchinson also recorded significant ice accumulation between Friday and Saturday. Russell Airport reported 8.6 mm (0.34 inches) on Saturday evening, while Hutchinson reported 7.9 mm (0.31 inches). Graupel has also been reported in parts of Kansas during the early hours of Sunday, January 5, due to the ice storm. YouTube video YouTube video Multiple accidents have already been reported due to the severe weather conditions. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Wichita is urging citizens to stay home and avoid travel during the storm. The Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT) reported that several parts of the I-70 were closed due to crashes and icy road conditions. A tractor-trailer also reportedly got jackknifed on the route bringing traffic to a standstill. Cars and trucks were caught sliding across the road on route I-135 due to ice accumulations on the road. Snow and ice are expected to continue in affected regions through Sunday morning, with significant accumulations anticipated in several areas. Some areas could see up to 46 cm (18 inches) of snow and 12.7 mm (0.5 inches) of ice accumulations through Sunday morning. Ice and snow accumulations are expected to make travel conditions hazardous, if not impossible, and could cause power outages in some areas. Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for several areas across Kansas and Missouri. Several areas in Missouri, such as Cape Girardeau, are under Ice Storm Warnings as of Sunday morning.
Multi-vehicle pileup closes I-70 in Illinois during winter storm, U.S. - A massive multi-vehicle crash involving around 40 vehicles, including semitrailers, forced the closure of Interstate 70 near Greenup, Illinois, during a winter storm on January 5, 2025. The Illinois State Police (ISP) confirmed the highway would remain shut for hours with traffic diverted to U.S. Route 40. YouTube video Interstate 70 near Greenup in southeastern Illinois was closed on Sunday, January 5, after a major crash involving approximately 40 vehicles. The collision was reported around 13:30 CST (19:30 UTC) near milepost 124 and affected all eastbound lanes. Traffic was rerouted to U.S. Route 40 as emergency responders worked to clear the scene. The ISP announced an extended closure and noted that multiple local departments were on-site to assist. At least one ambulance was seen leaving the scene though there were no immediate reports of injuries or fatalities. Greenup is located in Cumberland County and lies along I-70 which connects southeastern Illinois to Indianapolis to the northeast. The crash area is one of several regions (central and southern Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia) impacted by strong winter storms bringing heavy snow and gusty winds by severely reducing visibility and creating hazardous driving conditions. ISP Troop 6 activated its Emergency Snow Plan earlier in the day across several central Illinois counties, including Adams, Christian, Logan, and Sangamon. The plan urged drivers to avoid nonessential travel and cited poor road and visibility conditions. A “no tow” order is in effect which means vehicles not posing an immediate hazard are left in place until conditions improve. The winter storm also caused a collision on Interstate 55 northbound near Lincoln which is approximately 124 km (77 miles) northwest of Greenup. The portion of I-55 was closed around 17:15 CST (23:15 UTC). The Illinois Department of Transportation warned of deteriorating conditions across central and southern Illinois. The warning focused on areas south of the I-72 corridor where snowfall accumulation is expected.
At least one dead, hundreds of crashes as strong winter storm batters U.S. with record snow - (4 videos) The first winter storm of 2025 has battered much of the United States with severe weather conditions, record snow, and ice leading to hundreds of crashes and at least one fatality in Missouri. Severe weather and icy roads have led to severe travel disruptions, causing over 3 000 flight delays and multiple road closures across the country. At least one fatality has been reported as the storm created hazardous weather conditions stranding over a 1 000 vehicles and causing over 300 crashes. Kansas City recorded the 4th highest single-day snowfall on Sunday due to the storm. The first winter storm of the year has severely impacted much of the United States, bringing severe weather conditions to Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and West Virginia. At least one person has been reported dead during the storm’s impact in Missouri. Blizzard conditions affected several areas, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Indianapolis, leading to significant ice accumulation, numerous crashes, and widespread power outages. Missouri experienced the severe impacts of the storm, as the Missouri State Highway Patrol (MSHP) reported responding to 356 crashes, 1 043 stranded motorists, and 2 084 calls for service. At least one person was reported dead and 31 people were reported injured during the severe weather event the MSHP reported on Sunday. Multiple routes were closed due to the storm’s impact, crashes, and disruptions. Hazardous travel conditions led to a serious crash involving a Kentucky State Police trooper on Sunday afternoon on I-65 in Hart County. The trooper was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries. YouTube video YouTube video The storm began moving through the northern Rockies from the Northwest during the first half of the weekend. On Friday, January 3, it spawned the first tornado of 2025 in Tehama County, California. As the system progressed, it brought freezing drizzle to Wichita, Kansas, on Saturday morning, January 4, covering roads with ice and causing vehicles to lose control, triggering numerous crashes on multiple routes as it moved eastward. Record snowfall was observed in Kansas City which was covered in white due to the storm. The Kansas City International Airport recorded 28 cm (11 inches) of snow on Sunday, January 5. This marks the fourth-highest snowfall recorded on any calendar day. For perspective, Kansas City has received more than 25.4 cm (10 inches) of snow only seven times in 137 years of record-keeping since 1888. YouTube video YouTube video Thundersnow was reported in some areas as the storm caused severe travel disruptions. Several parts of I-70 were closed due to hazardous conditions throughout the weekend, as were all state highways in northeastern Kansas on Sunday. Travel disruptions extended to airports nationwide, with over 1 000 flight cancellations and more than 3 000 flight delays reported on Sunday. More than 200 000 customers experienced power outages across Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Virginia, and West Virginia on Monday morning. On the southern edge of the storm, cold air clashing with warm, moist air ignited severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas through Mississippi, an area recently hit by deadly storms and tornadoes at the end of December. Sunday’s severe weather was less intense than the previous outbreak, but a tornado reportedly touched down in southern Arkansas, while strong winds caused damage in parts of eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. The storm is forecast to move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday evening, January 6. On Monday, it will impact areas from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, causing severe travel delays. Moderate to heavy snow is expected from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic, continuing into late Monday night. The system is expected to produce 15 – 30 cm (6 – 12 inches) of snow across the Mid-Atlantic, including the Washington, D.C. metro area, causing significant travel disruptions. An additional 5 – 10 cm (2 – 4 inches) of snow will fall across parts of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, where travel disruptions will persist. Light icing and freezing rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, ending by Monday evening in the Mid-Atlantic.
At least 6 dead, more than 300 000 without power as major winter storm sweeps through U.S. - At least 6 people have been reported dead after a record-breaking winter storm swept through much of the United States from January 3 – 6, 2025, bringing record snow and causing severe travel disruptions with over 9 000 flights being delayed or canceled and hundreds of crashes reported across multiple states. A crash in Missouri during the winter storm A crash in Missouri during the winter storm. Image credit: Image credit: MSHP General HQ At least 6 people have been reported dead during a strong winter storm that swept through much of the U.S. since January 3, causing hundreds of crashes. Record snowfall was recorded in several areas such as Kansas City which broke its snow record set in 1962 on Sunday, January 5, after recording 27.9 cm (11 inches) of snow. Emergencies were declared for Washington, D.C., and Maryland. At least six deaths have been attributed to the first major winter storm that swept through much of the United States from January 3 to 6, bringing record snowfall to several regions. The Missouri State Highway Patrol (MSHP) reported two fatalities. A 33-year-old individual died after exiting their vehicle on Interstate 29 in Mount City. The vehicle began to slide, striking the 33-year-old victim from Nebraska. A 61-year-old public works employee was reported dead after being struck while conducting snow removal operations in Jackson County. Two people died in Kansas following a crash near Wichita when their southbound vehicle spun out of control on I-235 and rolled down an embankment on Sunday, January 5. In a separate incident, a 28-year-old man died in Ford County after his vehicle collided with a tractor-trailer that had swerved due to icy conditions. A juvenile was reported dead, and another sustained life-threatening injuries, following a snow tube crash in Macon County. Officials stated that a man driving an ATV was towing two boys on an inner tube in snowy conditions when the tube slid out during a turn and struck a large boulder. The MSHP reported responding to 436 crashes, 38 injuries, 1 788 stranded motorists, and 3 134 calls for service. Meanwhile, Virginia State Police reported 430 crashes that resulted in 20 injuries. A snow emergency was declared in Washington, D.C., through at least the end of Tuesday, January 7. Maryland was also placed under a state of emergency ahead of the storm. Schools were closed on Monday, January 6, and Tuesday, January 7. Several states recorded historic snowfall. Topeka, Kansas, experienced 36.8 cm (14.5 inches) of snow, while Kansas City reported 27.9 cm (11 inches), breaking a record set in 1962. Louisville, Kentucky, recorded 19.6 cm (7.7 inches), surpassing a 1910 record. Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport reported 20.3 cm (8 inches) of snow, causing similar disruptions. By the time the storm ended on Monday night, parts of Philadelphia received 30.5 cm (1 foot) of snow, while some regions got a little over 2.5 cm (1 inch). Georgetown in Delaware recorded 30.5 cm (12 inches) of snow, Rehoboth Beach reported 25.4 cm (10 inches), and Houston recorded 22.4 cm (8.8 inches). Meanwhile, the Lehigh Valley Airport received 3 cm (1.2 inches). Temperatures plunged nationwide, with forecasters warning lows of −11 to −4 °C (12 to 25 °F) below normal. Coastal areas in the Northeast recorded temperatures as low as -17 to -15 °C (1 to 5 °F), while the Central Plains experienced similarly frigid conditions. The cold weather caused significant travel disruptions, with over 9 000 flights canceled or delayed across states from Texas to New York. Airports in the Washington, D.C., area were the worst affected, with 80% of departures from National Airport canceled. Runways were closed for snow removal, though terminals remained open. Runways were expected to remain closed until Tuesday morning. More than 300 000 people experienced power outages across Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, and West Virginia due to the storm.
Heavy snowfall across United States from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region leaves 7 dead - Winter Storm Blair, the first major snowfall of the new year, left considerable portions of the United States covered in snow and ice during the first week of 2025. The snowfall, which originated in the US Pacific Northwest and pushed southward, covered the Plains region and made its way to the eastern seaboard by Sunday. Over 64 million people in the US were placed under various states of emergency during the course of the weekend. Hazardous conditions on roads and freezing temperatures led to seven known fatalities. Closures, canceled flights and other economic disruptions plagued cities and towns in the storm’s path. Schools in 20 different states were closed or delayed. By Saturday morning, meteorologists reported “many, many accidents” across metro Wichita in Kansas. The most severe resulted in two deaths after a sports utility vehicle lost control and rolled down an elevated highway embankment near Wichita. Northeast Kansas saw the heaviest accumulation of snow, counting 18 inches in some areas in less than a day. In Texas, a Houston man was found frozen to death at a bus stop. The unidentified person had apparently been seeking shelter from the wind, as temperatures of about 30 degrees Fahrenheit were made to feel much lower. In Missouri, a 61-year-old man was killed by a dump truck as it lost control on the roadway. Snowfall, ice and winds led to considerable power losses throughout the country. A total of 300,000 consumers lost heating and lights as of Monday. The heaviest concentration of outages occurred in Texas, with over 200,000 reported. Virginia and West Virginia each reported over 100,000 power outages. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, representing customer-owned utilities services, reported nearly 100,000 outages impacting various units. Electricity cooperatives are more susceptible to power outages due to serving rural-based and often isolated communities. Infrastructure was also impacted. Rail operator BNSF reported Monday that its “Winter Action Plan” had been put into effect until Wednesday following a derailment that occurred near Congo, Missouri. The plan includes restrictions on railcar length to “to enhance train braking performance” and other measures, most of which would be borne by rail workers themselves, charged with clearing the packed snow from the tracks. Areas of upstate New York received as much as several feet of snow. Washington D.C. saw about 5.5 inches of snow, while the capital’s Maryland and Virginia suburbs received almost double that amount. In Virginia, a 32-year-old man died in Sussex County near the town of Wakefield after his truck struck a tree. Richmond, the Virginia state capital, was placed under a boil water advisory after a water pump failure occurred following a power outage. The failure has affected roughly 230,000 people. According to the city, the advisory must remain in place for at least 24-48 hours. Richmond has recently faced a series of infrastructure incidents, requiring the federal Department of Transportation to step in and offer the city $60 million in aid to replace its aging gas pipelines. According to the Richmond Free Press, the 50 miles of pipelines being addressed “are estimated to be over 170 years old.” That is, they date back to the period just before the American Civil War.In the nation’s capital, Washington D.C., the homeless population has seen a double-digit growth in the past year, up to over 5,500 individuals. This is part of a national trend which is in itself the product of the Biden administration’s war on the working class. The Washington Post notes “as of Monday afternoon, 220 out of the city’s 1,700 or so shelter beds were still available.” This represents less than half of the city’s needy. In Houston, where a homeless man is believed to have frozen to death, the city’s local ABC News affiliate stated that the region’s homeless population “is gearing up for what will be a tough overnight fight against the elements.”
Massive winter storm continues to dump snow across the South - A massive winter storm is blanketing the South with ice and record-breaking snow, with some cities seeing the most snowfall from a single storm in decades. Twenty states, from Texas to Delaware, were on alert Friday for snow and ice as the storm continued to move across the South. The storm has prompted governors to declare states of emergency, including in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennesse and Texas, to prepare for and respond to the severe weather. Some states have seen a foot or more of snow during the storm. Parts of Arkansas have seen 14 inches of snow in the storm. Seven inches have fallen in Little Rock, the most in four years. Portions of Oklahoma and Texas have gotten 12 inches of snow. Oklahoma City had 3.5 inches of snow, a daily record, while Amarillo, Texas, saw 9.5 inches, the most in 10 years. Mississippi has seen 7 inches of snowfall, while Alabama has gotten 6 inches, as it continues to snow in the states. Birmingham saw 2 inches of snow -- the most in 11 years. Memphis, Tennessee, has gotten 7 inches of snow, the most snow in a single day in 40 years. Atlanta has so far seen 2 inches of snow, the most in seven years, in the storm. Several communities north of Atlanta measured up to 5 inches from the storm. Warming stations have been activated throughout Georgia as the state experiences sub-freezing temperatures. Those located in the North Georgia Mountains were near capacity as of Friday morning, according to Gov. Brian Kemp. "If you're looking for a place, you may want to go south versus north, if you can," Kemp said during a press briefing. Amid the storm, tens of thousands of customers were without power across the Southeast, with Texas and Arkansas experiencing the bulk of the outages. The storm is also affecting travel. More than 3,000 flights across the country were canceled as of Friday afternoon, with Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas and Nashville seeing the biggest impacts.
Winter storm in U.S. South maintains its icy grip (AP) — Flight cancellations piled up and state officials warned of continuing dangerous roads Saturday in the wake of a winter storm that closed schools and disrupted travel across parts of the southern U.S. A storm that brought biting cold and wet snow to the South was moving out to sea off the East Coast on Saturday, leaving behind a forecast for snow showers in the Appalachian Mountains and New England. But temperatures are expected to plunge after sundown Saturday in the South, raising the risk that melting snow will refreeze, turning roadways treacherously glazed with ice. “I definitely don’t think everything’s going to completely melt,” said Scott Carroll, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Atlanta. “Especially the secondary roads will probably still have some slush on them.” Major roads are mostly clear, but tie-ups at affected airports remain Major roads were mostly clear, but few ventured out early on Saturday. The Atlanta Hawks postponed the pro basketball game they were supposed to host Saturday afternoon against the Houston Rockets, citing icy conditions. Major airports, including Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina, continued to report disruptions Saturday. While flights were operating, airlines canceled and delayed more flights after Friday’s weather slowed airline travel to a crawl. By noon Saturday, more than 300 flights in and out of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport were canceled, while nearly 500 more were delayed, according to tracking software FlightAware. More than 200 flights in and out of Charlotte were canceled, while almost 200 more ran late. Sarah Waithera Wanyoike, who lives in the Atlanta suburb of Lilburn, was starting her second day at Atlanta’s airport on Saturday. Wanyoike arrived at the world’s busiest airport before sunrise on Friday to catch an Ethiopian Airlines flight on the way to her job in Zimbabwe. The plane boarded after a delay on Friday, but never left, discharging passengers back to the gate after taxiing around and never taking off for six hours. Wanyoike said her luggage remained stuck on the plane and she dared not try to go home because she was told to be back at the gate before dawn on Saturday. “People slept with their babies on the floors last night,” Wanyoike said. But Saturday morning found the flight delayed again, and Wanyoike was deeply frustrated with a lack of communication from the airline. “It’s not even on the board at the airport,” she said. “There’s no indication that we’re leaving.” Delta Air Lines, the largest carrier at the Atlanta airport, said late Friday that it was “working to recover” on Saturday, saying cancellations would be worst among morning flights because of crews and airplanes that weren’t where they were supposed to be after the airline canceled 1,100 flights on Friday. Richmond drops boil-water advisory after nearly a week Meanwhile, the city of Richmond, Virginia, lifted its boil-water advisory late Saturday morning, nearly a week after Monday’s snow storm had cut power and caused a malfunction to the city’s water system. Mayor Danny Avula said lab tests confirmed that Richmond’s water was safe to drink, adding that boil-water advisories had been lifted for some surrounding counties as well. The temporary halting of the water system affected more than 200,000 people, some of whom lacked water in their homes because of diminished pressure. The state’s Legislature had also delayed the beginning of its session because of the problem. Freezing rain pushed up electricity outages above 110,000 in Georgia on Friday night, but most power was restored Saturday. The National Weather Service reported between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches of ice accumulation around Atlanta from the freezing rain. That wasn’t as bad as forecast. But Carroll said high winds Saturday could still pose risks where ice did stick. “If there are any frozen branches and limbs, it’s possible that some of those can be brought down by the gusty winds during the day today,” Carroll said. Parts of mountainous western North Carolina saw as much as 4.5 inches of snow in a 24-hour period that ended at 7 a.m. Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. And parts of middle Tennessee saw nearly 6 inches of snow by Saturday morning. Earlier this week the storm brought heavy snow and slick roads to much of Texas and Oklahoma before moving east. Arkansas and North Carolina mobilized National Guard troops for tasks such as helping stranded motorists and governors declared states of emergency.
Gateway to the Sahara covered in snow for the second time in two years, Algeria - Snow cover was recorded over the Ain Sefra region of Algeria on January 1 and 2, 2025 for the second time in two years. Gateway to the Sahara covered in snow for the second time in two years, Algeria january 2025 Image credit: Karim Bouchetata Snow fell in the Sahara Desert for the second time in two years on January 1 and 2, 2025. Photos and videos shared online depicted snow-covered dunes and snowfall in Ain Sefra and Tirkont village. The snowfall was caused by a storm system originating in Europe, which brought winter weather to Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia. In lower elevations, most of the precipitation was rain, whereas higher, mountainous regions experienced freezing rain and some snow. The storm system that brought snow to the Sahara also caused heavy snowfall in the Alps and other parts of Europe, regions that had been experiencing snowfall deficits. Ain Sefra, often called the “Gateway to the Sahara,” is located at an elevation of approximately 1 100 m (3 600 feet), between the expansive Saharan Desert and the Atlas Mountains.
Blizzard causes 95-car pileup in Kazakhstan - A 95-car pileup occurred on Kazakhstan’s Astana-Petropavlovsk National Highway during a snowstorm on Friday, January 3, 2025, leaving at least 12 people injured. “Preliminary reports suggest the accident was caused by drivers failing to adhere to speed limits and maintain safe distances,” QazAvtoJol, the government agency overseeing Kazakhstan’s highways, stated on Telegram. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations reported on Telegram that it assisted with rescues and evacuations, involving a total of 152 personnel and 68 units of equipment in the operations. Around 71 people, including eight children, were evacuated to a staging area where they were provided with hot meals, according to the ministry. Additionally, 10 people were hospitalized. The agency stated that all vehicles involved in the pileup were removed by 23:50 LT on Friday. “The aftermath of the accident has been addressed, and the damaged guardrail has been restored,” the agency added.
UK issues fresh Amber warning for snow, 2 fatalities reported - - The UK Met Office has issued fresh Amber and Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings for snow and ice on January 8, 2025, as cold weather that already claimed 2 lives persists. An Amber warning for snow is in effect for southwestern England until 21:00 on January 8, 2025, while Yellow warnings cover parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and southern England. The Amber warning predicts significant snowfall in parts of Devon, Cornwall, Dorset, and Somerset. According to the Met Office, areas above 150 m (490 feet) are expected to accumulate 2 – 5 cm (0.8 – 2 inches) of snow, while higher ground such as Dartmoor and Exmoor could receive up to 10 cm (4 inches). Lower elevations may experience only a light dusting. Disruptions to transportation networks, particularly during the evening rush hours, are anticipated. Yellow warnings for snow and ice are in effect across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, potentially affecting travel. Southern England is also under a Yellow warning for snow, with lighter snowfall expected, though minor disruptions may still occur. Low temperatures are forecast to continue through January 9 and 10, with additional snow and ice warnings expected. A northerly airflow will maintain freezing conditions, and temperatures could drop as low as -15 °C (5 °F) to -16 °C (3 °F) in areas with lying snow, particularly in Scotland and northern England. Deputy Chief Forecaster Christoph Almond stated that a weather front arriving early Friday may bring additional snowfall to southern and western regions, with a risk of ice as it moves northeast. The extent of the snowfall, however, remains uncertain.
Parts of Japan see nearly 2 m (6.6 feet) of snow – videos - Heavy sea-effect snow has been affecting parts of Japan over the past couple of days, with more than 1 m (3 feet) of snow already registered in some regions and snowfall expected to persist through Saturday. Some areas have already received twice the usual snowfall. Approximately 59 cm (23.2 inches) of snow was recorded in Minakami Town, Gunma Prefecture, in the 24 hours through 20:00 local time (LT), while 40 cm (15.7 inches) was recorded in Nishi-Aizu Town, Fukushima Prefecture. Some areas received well over 1 m (3.3 feet) of snow within 72 hours. As of 20:00 LT on Friday, 1.95 m (6.4 feet) of snow was reported in Uonuma City, Niigata Prefecture, while Shirakawa Village, Gifu Prefecture, recorded 1.85 m (6.1 feet) during the same period. By 18:00 LT on Thursday, accumulated snowfall reached 1.84 m (6.0 feet) in Sumon, Uonuma City, Niigata Prefecture, and 1.67 m (5.5 feet) in Shirakawa Village, Gifu Prefecture. On the Noto Peninsula, which experienced a major earthquake and torrential rains last year, 7 cm (2.8 inches) of snow was recorded on the ground in Suzu City and 1 cm (0.4 inches) in Wajima City, both in Ishikawa Prefecture. In the 24 hours through Saturday evening, approximately 50 cm (20 inches) of snow is forecast for the Tohoku and northern Kanto regions, with 40 cm (16 inches) expected in other regions, primarily in the west.
Strong tornado hits Rabigh Governorate, Saudi Arabia (video) A powerful tornado struck the Rabigh Governorate along Saudi Arabia’s coast on January 6, 2025, marking the strongest ever recorded in the region. The event occurred as severe weather warnings were issued for heavy rains, hail, and high waves across the Makkah region including Jeddah. The event was accompanied by torrential rains and strong winds and it triggered high waves exceeding 2 m (6.6 feet) impacting coastal areas. The tornado appeared near Jeddah during the ongoing Red-alert warnings issued by the National Center of Meteorology (NCM). Visible from coastal areas, the tornado showed a well-defined funnel extending from the storm clouds to the sea’s surface. Tornadoes are exceptionally uncommon in Saudi Arabia in coastal regions like Rabigh.
Cyclone Dikeledi forms, forecast to rapidly intensify before landfall in Madagascar - Cyclone Dikeledi formed in the South-West Indian Ocean on Thursday, January 9, 2025, and is expected to rapidly intensify before making landfall in northern Madagascar on Saturday, January 11.
- Cyclone Dikeledi, the fourth named storm of the 2024-25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season, is expected to make landfall on Saturday, January 11, between Sambava and Antsiranana in northern Madagascar, posing a significant threat with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous sea conditions.
- The cyclone, currently classified as a moderate tropical storm with an estimated minimum central pressure of 996 hPa, sustained winds of 85 km/h (53 mph), and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), is positioned northeast of La Réunion and east of Mayotte, moving westward at 30 km/h (19 mph).
According to data provided by Meteo France, the storm was located approximately 900 km (559 miles) northeast of La Réunion and 1 660 km (1 031 miles) east of Mayotte at 18:00 UTC today.The system is currently compact and is experiencing favorable conditions for rapid intensification over the next two days. It was generating dangerous sea conditions over Saint Brandon on Thursday night and is expected to move toward Tromelin by Friday.The cyclone is expected to make landfall over northern Madagascar on the east coast of Antsiranana Province, between Sambava and Antsiranana, on Saturday, January 11, posing a serious threat to the region. Strong winds are expected on Saturday afternoon in the impact zone, with the potential for very destructive winds during the evening. Heavy rainfall is expected in Antsiranana Province and northern Toamasina Province, along with dangerous sea conditions in the impact zone.
Wildfire rages in Los Angeles, forcing 30,000 to evacuate (Reuters) - A wildfire raged across an upscale section of Los Angeles on Tuesday, destroying homes and creating traffic jams as 30,000 people evacuated beneath huge plumes of smoke that covered much of the metropolitan area. At least 1,262 acres (510 hectares) of the Pacific Palisades area between Santa Monica and Malibu had burned, officials said, after they had already warned of extreme fire danger from powerful winds that arrived following extended dry weather. The fire grew rapidly in a matter of hours as officials warned the worst wind conditions were expected to come overnight, leading to concerns that more neighborhoods could be forced to flee. Flying embers set alight a palm tree at the intersection of Sunset Boulevard and Pacific Coast Highway. Witnesses reported a number homes on fire with flames nearly scorching their cars when people fled the hills of Topanga Canyon, as the fire spread from there down to the Pacific Ocean. "We feel very blessed at this point that there's no injuries that are reported," Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley told a press conference. Firefighters in aircraft scooped water from the sea to drop it on the nearby flames. Flames engulfed homes and bulldozers cleared abandoned vehicles from roads so emergency vehicles could pass, television images showed. With only one major road leading from the canyon to the coast, and only one coastal highway leading to safety, traffic crawled to a halt, leading people to flee on foot. One man said he was attempting to retrieve items from his home when he was stopped by firefighters as flaming debris landed in the road. "So it seemed to me, let's get out of here. Whatever I lose, I lose. There's nothing I can do about it," said the man who identified himself only as Peter. Cindy Festa, another Pacific Palisades resident, said that as she evacuated out of the canyon, fires were "this close to the cars," demonstrating with her thumb and forefinger. "People left their cars on Palisades Drive. Burning up the hillside. The palm trees - everything is going," Festa said from her car. Before the fire started, the National Weather Service had issued its highest alert for extreme fire conditions for much of Los Angeles County from Tuesday through Thursday, predicting wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph (80 to 130 kph) with isolated gusts of 80 to 100 mph (130 to 160 kph) in the mountains and foothills. Combined with low humidity and dry vegetation due to a lack of rain, conditions were extremely dangerous, authorities said. "In other words, this is about as bad as it gets in terms of fire weather," the Los Angeles office of the National Weather Service said on X. Governor Gavin Newsom said the state began moving fire resources from northern to southern California as early as Saturday because of the weather warning. Many of those personnel, firetrucks and aircraft remained in position elsewhere in Southern California because of the fire danger to the wider region, he added. "Hopefully, we're wrong, but we're anticipating other fires happening concurrently. And that's exactly the previous experience we've had with these kinds of wind events," Newsom told the press conference. Known as Santa Ana winds, the strong, dry westerly winds originate in inland deserts are more common in the fall but can affect Southern California any time of year. Pacific Palisades is home to several Hollywood stars. Actor James Woods said on X he was able to evacuate but added, "I do not know at this moment if our home is still standing." More than 25,000 people in 10,000 homes were threatened, Crowley said, equal to nearly the entire population of the Pacific Palisades. Nearly 5% of the Pacific Palisades' 23,431 acres (9,482 hectares) had burned.
Three major wildfires burning in SoCal – NBC Los Angeles
- Three major fires are burning in Pacific Palisades, Sylmar and Altadena as strong winds continue Wednesday morning.
- The devastating wind-driven brush fire in Pacific Palisades that destroyed homes and forced thousands to flee continues to burn, with new evacuation warnings issued for Malibu.
- The Eaton Fire near Altadena has burned at least 1,000 acres and prompted evacuation orders in the San Gabriel Valley.
- A third wildfire, named the Hurst Fire, has burned at least 500 acres in Sylmar.
- Drivers trying to evacuate all three areas have encountered traffic gridlock on busy roads, hindering movement in critical areas.
- Red flag warnings remain in effect for the Malibu coast, Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, and the San Gabriel, San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys.
- Why is it so windy? The weather is all about Southern California topography and the notorious Santa Ana winds.
Palisades Fire torches 1,000 structures, most destructive in Los Angeles history (KTLA) – The worst-case scenario has been realized in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, where an estimated 1,000 structures, many of them homes, have been destroyed by a Santa Ana-wind-fueled wildfire, authorities confirmed on Wednesday morning.The Palisades Fire was first reported around 10:30 a.m. Tuesday in the 1100 block of North Piedra Morada Drive. By Wednesday afternoon, the fire had exploded to 15,832 acres with no containment. At a news conference Wednesday morning, L.A. County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone revealed an estimated 1,000 structures had been lost. There was also a “high number of people who didn’t evacuate” who suffered serious injuries, he said.(photos) Daylight brought the extent of the devastation into clear focus as entire neighborhoods and commercial centers were leveled in this affluent coastal community. With 1,000 structures destroyed, the Palisades Fire is already far more destructive than the second-most destructive wildfire in Los Angeles history, according to statistics kept by the Wildfire Alliance, the Associated Press reported. The last most destructive fire was the Sayre Fire in November 2008, which destroyed 604 structures in Sylmar. Evacuations were ordered for the entire Pacific Palisades area down to the Pacific Ocean. The evacuations, which also included warnings for Santa Monica and Calabasas areas, impacted tens of thousands of homes and businesses. An evacuation shelter for people and pets was established at the Westwood Recreation Center at 1350 S. Sepulveda Blvd.Santa Monica and Las Virgenes unified school districts canceled classes Wednesday.Dozens of Los Angeles County schools were closed Wednesday due to the fire. A number of schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District were also closed. The cause of the fire remains under investigation. Pacific Palisades is located about 10 miles from Malibu, where the Franklin Fire burned more than 4,000 acres and burned several homes after erupting during similar windy conditions in December.
Palisades Fire Could Be 'Costliest' Fire In US History | Weather.com Firefighters are waging an uphill battle against the Pacific Palisades Fire, now the most destructive blaze in Los Angeles county history. The fire, fueled by dry conditions and ferocious Santa Ana winds, has scorched nearly 25 square miles and obliterated an estimated 1,000 structures, turning blocks of homes and businesses into ashes. Efforts to contain the inferno were hindered as fire hydrants in the area ran dry, forcing crews to depend on tanker trucks and aerial support to fight the flames.The crisis has also spread beyond Pacific Palisades, with two additional fires erupting in Los Angeles County, destroying more homes and triggering more evacuations. In total, at least 70,000 residents have been forced to flee, with entire communities left in ruins. Fire officials warn the situation remains dire, with high winds and dry conditions expected to worsen the disaster in the days ahead.David Ortiz of the Los Angeles Fire Department summed up the dire situation, calling it “the worst possible scenario for a firefight.” Firefighters are bracing for an arduous battle ahead, as efforts intensify to save lives and what remains of Pacific Palisades.The Palisades Fire has scorched 15,832 acres, nearly 25 square miles, with extreme fire behavior making containment efforts difficult,according to Cal Fire. More than 800 personnel, 7 helicopters, and 149 fire engines are battling the blaze as winds gusting up to 60 mph threaten to spread the flames further through Thursday. The Cal Fire Incident Management Team is directing Los Angeles County and City fire crews as they work around the clock to protect critical infrastructure. The Pacific Coast Highway remains closed in multiple areas. The fire’s cause is still under investigation. The Critics Choice Awards, originally scheduled for Sunday at Santa Monica’s Barker Hangar, have been postponed to January 26 due to the fires.The NHL also postponed the Los Angeles Kings' Wednesday night home game against the Calgary Flames, set to take place at the Kings’ downtown L.A. arena. The NFL is keeping a close eye on containment progress as it pertains to Monday’s playoff clash between the Minnesota Vikings and L.A. Rams at SoFi Stadium, just 22 miles away from the Palisades Fire. More than 400,000 Californians are in the dark as wildfires and powerful winds continue to knock out power across the state, according to PowerOutage.us. Los Angeles County alone has more than 250,000 customers without electricity, with tens of thousands more affected in neighboring counties. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power warned residents to brace for delays, stating it could take 24 to 48 hours—or longer—to restore service. Meanwhile, an outage map reveals the sprawling impact, leaving many wondering when relief will come.In response to the escalating emergency, President Biden has directed the Department of Defense to deploy additional resources. Modular Air Fire Fighting System units from the California and Nevada National Guards are en route, along with ten Navy helicopters equipped with water buckets from San Diego.Local media also reports a firefighter Strike Force from Washington County, Oregon is heading to the front lines of the fires for the next two weeks, including five engines with about 20 firefighters.The Eaton Fire has grown to more than 16 square miles, according to an update from CalFire. The fire is still 0% contained and more than 700 firefighters are working against the blaze.Much of the neighborhood of Pacific Palisades has been destroyed, leaving little other than charred remains of homes, vehicles and other structures behind. Photos from the area show the devastation after the flames retreated. According to the New York Times, several businesses have been burned to the ground, as well as blocks of homes. Firefighters continue to battle small fires that continue to crop up in the neighborhood. Climate scientist Daniel Swain says that the Palisades Fire is expected to be the costliest fire in the country's history. It is already the most destructive fire to ever burn in Los Angeles County according to CalFire data. "It is plausible that the Palisades Fire, in particular, will become the costliest on record period, not just in California, but in general,” Swain said, according to CNN. “We’ve likely checked that box this time. I’m hoping we don’t check other boxes as well.” Swain said that the strong winds and highly flammable landscape that have made the Palisade's Fire so hard to fight are comparable to the conditions that led up to the Camp Fire, the costliest and deadliest wildfire in U.S. history to date.
LA fires could break California's insurance market - — Wednesday’s firestorm in a wealthy area of Los Angeles could be the final straw that breaks California’s insurance market.The state’s insurance market has been teetering on the edge of insolvency for years thanks to catastrophic wildfires that have driven many insurers to stop writing new policies and drop existing ones. Wednesday’s wind-driven wildfires in a part of Los Angeles packed with multimillion-dollar homes could accelerate its collapse.“It’s obviously going to be bad,” said Rep. Brad Sherman, the Democrat who represents the neighborhood between Malibu and Santa Monica where the Palisades Fire — one of six burning uncontained across the region — had destroyed more than 1,000 buildings as of Wednesday afternoon. “We’ve already seen big increases. And we’ve seen these increases not only in houses that are close to the brush, but in areas where you’re surrounded by other homes.”President-elect Donald Trump called out the issue Wednesday as he bashed Democrats for the deadly, wind-fueled conflagrations that forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. “The fires in Los Angeles may go down, in dollar amount, as the worst in the History of our Country,” he wroteon Truth Social. “In many circles, they’re doubting whether insurance companies will even have enough money to pay for this catastrophe.”The state’s insurer of last resort, known as the FAIR Plan, predicted that it would be able to pay out. “We are aware of misinformation being posted online regarding the FAIR Plan’s ability to pay claims,” spokesperson Hilary McLean said in a statement on behalf of the FAIR Plan. “It is too early to provide loss estimates as claims are just beginning to be submitted and processed,” McLean wrote, noting the plan was prepared for this kind of a disaster and has payment mechanisms including reinsurance, to cover claims. But California faces a double-barreled threat: Private insurers could continue to drop policies and decline to write new ones, as they’ve been increasingly doing since a series of severe fires beginning in 2017 with the Tubbs Fire in Northern California. And the FAIR plan, which has been absorbing the shrinking private market, could run out of money to pay its claims. That wouldn’t mean going bankrupt, as McLean noted. Instead, it would draw from primary insurers to recoup its costs under state law, raising rates across all private policies and sending rates skyrocketing across the state.“This is sort of what everybody’s been preparing for,” said Karl Susman, an insurance broker in West Los Angeles who’s filing dozens of claims on behalf of clients. “This is why rates are going up. This is why carriers are freaking out.”State Farm dropped nearly 70 percent of its policies in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood last year, according to a state filing — more than any other ZIP code in the state — in a sign it saw the neighborhood as risky. That forced more people onto the FAIR Plan, which was originally created in the 1960s to insure riot-scarred Los Angeles neighborhoods but has since found more demand in rural and suburban fire-prone regions. In Pacific Palisades alone, the FAIR plan insures nearly $6 billion worth of property, according to September figures — more than all but four communities in California. Across the state, the total value of FAIR-insured properties was $458 billion, triple the total insured value in 2020, according to FAIR Plan data.The damages, which AccuWeather estimated Wednesday at $52 billion-$57 billion, could continue to rise as hurricane-force winds forecasted through Wednesday and Thursday put thousands more homes at risk. “Should a large number of additional structures be burned in the coming days, it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said in a statement.State officials who have been trying to stanch insurers’ exodus said they were prepared to limit the impact, including by passing a temporary year-long moratorium on non-renewals in areas recently burned.“Insurance companies are pledging their commitment to California, and we will hold them accountable for the promises they have made,” Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said in a statement.Susman called the fires a “proving ground” for rules Lara finalized just weeks ago to entice property insurers back to the market and force them to write more in fire-prone areas. The rules gave insurance companies permission to pass along the costs of reinsurance to customers and use forward-looking so-called “catastrophic models” that take into account the likelihood of the type of climate-fueled fires raging in Los Angeles to raise rates, in exchange for meeting a certain quota of policies in disaster-prone areas. Insurers like Allstate have promised to return to the market following the changes.
What is the ’ember cast’ of the LA wildfires? -- Firefighters battling the massive wildfires in Los Angeles say they are also bracing for “ember casts” that could spread the raging flames miles away. The ember cast occurs when heavy winds carry the cinder downwind to a new area where spot fires can be ignited, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. These spot fires could be in another brush area, which then creates its own ember cast, and the pattern repeats, officials noted.Rapidly moving wildfires in the Pacific Palisades area have spread to more than 2,925 acres with no containment, causing more than 80,000 to evacuate as of Wednesday. The fires are being fueled by what the National Weather Service has said could be the strongest Santa Ana windstorm in more than a decade, which began Tuesday across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Los Angeles has declared a state of emergency for the winds produced by the flames. “Winds to this degree can easily carry embers a mile downwind, which means they can drop into vegetation and spark a new fire away from where fire resources are in place fighting, ” Margaret Stewart, Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) public information officer, told NewsNation on Wednesday. “The heavy vegetation in the area and these embers are carried, and they’ll spark a new fire,” she said. “That’s part of the challenge with this type of a fire.” According to the LAFD, the embers could also get caught up in the “eves of a house, get in through the attic vent or gather up under an exposed wooden deck — and then the house is burning, and another potential ember cast is created.”
Southern California wildfires kill 5, destroy more than 1,100 buildings - Los Angeles Times - More than 1,100 homes, businesses and other buildings have burned and at least five people are dead in wildfires scorching communities across Los Angeles County, making this one of the most destructive firestorms to hit the region in memory. All five deaths occurred in and around Altadena and Pasadena, where the Eaton Fire exploded Tuesday night, giving residents little time to flee.As the winds whipped out of the north, and embers began to rain down, almost everyone had left J.C. Matsuura’s neighborhood in Altadena.But Matsuura had no intention of following the evacuation order issued as the Eaton fire rapidly spread Tuesday night, engulfing homes and businesses that stood in its path. Even after Matsuura’s wife left, taking the family dogs, the 65-year-old stood his ground. For the first 24 hours of L.A.’s wildfire disaster, Mayor Karen Bass was a constant presence on social media, urging Angelenos to flee evacuation zones and announcing her decision to declare an emergency. Meanwhile, Bass herself was far from the city. As flames tore through Pacific Palisades, she was on a diplomatic mission in Africa, communicating with key city agencies from afar. The mandatory evacuation order in Santa Monica for the Palisades fire was significantly expanded Wednesday afternoon, with officials ordering residents north of Montana Avenue between 11th Street and Pacific Coast Highway to immediately leave their homes. Santa Monica City Councilmember Jesse Zwick, who was raised in the coastal city, said that, prior to the Palisades fire, he could not remember there ever being a mandatory evacuation order in the flats of Santa Monica.
Southern California wildfires may cause $52-$57 billion in losses: Report --Total damage from the devastating wildfires scorching Southern California could amount to between $52 billion and $57 billion in economic losses, according to a new analysis. The estimate, issued by AccuWeather’s Global Weather Center, accounts for both direct and indirect impacts of the storm and includes both insured and uninsured losses. Some such costs relate to property, wages, crops, infrastructure, supply chains and travel, per the report. Also included are evacuations, cleanup, emergency management and medical expenses. “This is already one of the worst wildfires in California history,” Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist, said in a statement. “Should a large number of additional structures be burned in the coming days, it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss.” To put the preliminary estimate into context, AccuWeather found that total damage and economic losses from Maui’s 2023 wildfires were $13 billion to $16 billion. Losses from all U.S. West wildfires in 2020 amounted to $130 billion to $150 billion, while those from the 2024 hurricane season reached nearly half-a-trillion dollars, according to the analysis. Currently, the most severe blazes are burning in an area stretching from Santa Monica to Malibu — affecting some of the priciest real estate nationwide, with median values of more than $2 million, the meteorologists noted. “This estimate is preliminary, as the infernos continue to spread and impacts continue to occur, and some areas have not reported information about damage, injuries and other impacts,” the analysis stated. Many Pacific Palisades residents have said that they have no property insurance because companies are no longer willing to provide such protection in this very expensive and high-risk area, per the report. If the fires continue spreading rapidly and into densely populated zones, thousands more expensive structure could burn down, the meteorologists noted, warning that the loss estimate could be “revised upward substantially.”
Celebrities among those who lost homes as devastating Los Angeles fires (AP) — Wildfires that are burning in and around Los Angeles have burned the homes of several celebrities, including Billy Crystal, Mandy Moore and Paris Hilton.California firefighters are battling wind-whipped fires tearing across the area, destroying homes, clogging roadways as tens of thousands fled and straining resources as the fires burned uncontained Wednesday. Crystal and his wife, Janice, released a statement Wednesday saying their home of 45 years in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood was lost. Their neighborhood is a hillside area along the coast dotted with celebrity residences and memorialized by the Beach Boys in their 1960s hit “Surfin’ USA.” In the frantic haste to get to safety, roadways became impassable when scores of people abandoned their vehicles and fled on foot, some toting suitcases. Less than 72 hours before, Hollywood’s highest-wattage stars had convened to walk the Golden Globes’ red carpet, the first major event of the exuberant and, for many, triumphant awards season. The revelry of awards season had quickly been snuffed out, too: Premieres of contenders like “Better Man” and “The Last Showgirl” were canceled, the Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations were announced via press release instead of at a live event and weekend events like the AFI Awards were preemptively scrubbed.The Oscar nominations are also being delayed two days to Jan. 19 and the film academy has extended the voting window to accommodate members affected by the fires.Here’s how celebrities and entertainment companies are being impacted by the fires burning in and around Los Angeles: The latest on the multiple wildfires burning in Southern California: […] Officials didn’t give an estimate of structures damaged or destroyed in the wildfire, but they said at least 70,000 residents were under evacuation orders and nearly 30,000 structures were under threat. The fire burned down Temescal Canyon, a popular hiking area surrounded by dense neighborhoods of multimillion-dollar homes. Flames jumped famous Sunset Boulevard and burned parts of the Palisades Charter High School, which has been featured in many Hollywood productions including the 1976 horror movie “Carrie,” the 2003 remake of “Freaky Friday” and the TV series “Teen Wolf.” The Palisades fire also destroyed the historic ranch house that belonged to Hollywood legend Will Rogers. It was among multiple structures destroyed at both Will Rogers State Historic Park and Topanga State Park. The historic Topanga Ranch Motel, built by William Randolph Hearst in 1929, also burned down. Rogers’ ranch, built on land he bought in the 1920s, occupied some 359 acres in what is now Pacific Palisades. It included a 31-room ranch house, a stable, golf course and riding trails. His wife donated it to California State Parks in 1944. Film studios canceled two movie premieres due to the fire and windy weather, the Universal Studios Hollywood theme park closed for the day due to the smoky and windy conditions and the J. Paul Getty Trust said two of its museums, the Getty Villa and Getty Center, would remain closed for the next few days.Universal Studios also canceled shooting for numerous series, including “Hacks,” “Ted Lasso” and “Suits LA.”The Walt Disney Co. closed its headquarters in Burbank, and canceled production on several series, including “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Doctor Odyssey.” ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” which tapes in Hollywood, was canceled for Wednesday and will instead air a repeat.The production pauses added to further disruptions to the film and TV industry in Los Angeles, including the cancellation of the premiere to Universal’s “Wolf Man” and postponement of the American Film Institute awards gala, scheduled for Friday.The latest on the multiple wildfires burning in Southern California:
- Fire map: There are multiple major fires, including the Palisades Fire west of Los Angeles, the Eaton Fire north of Pasadena, and the Sunset Fire in the Hollywood Hills.
- Evacuation zones: Some 130,000 people are under evacuation orders. Wildfires that ripped through the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles forced many Hollywood stars, including Mark Hamill, Mandy Moore and James Woods, to evacuate their homes.
- Power shutoffs: More than 450,000 people were without power Wednesday evening, according to the tracking site poweroutage.us.
- See photos of the damage, evacuations and aftermath of the fires.
Eaton Fire burns through Altadena, destroying over 1 000 homes and claiming 5 lives, California - (2 videos) The Eaton Fire has claimed the lives of at least five civilians and injured four firefighters as it continues to scorch 10 600 ha (26 230 acres) of land, leaving destruction and uncertainty in its path. Nearly 40 000 structures are under threat, with over 1 000 already destroyed. The blaze continues to expand with the dry and windy conditions continuing to affect the region. Downtown Altadena burning due to Eaton Fire. Image credit: Live Storms Media. The Eaton Fire has claimed at least five lives since it ignited at approximately 18:18 local time (LT) on Tuesday, January 7. The blaze has burned through 10 600 hectares (26 230 acres) as per the latest update by the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD). The fire is threatening nearly 40 000 structures, having already destroyed approximately 1 000, with some reports indicating the number may exceed this figure. Additionally, more than 84 structures have been damaged. The blaze has injured at least four firefighters and claimed five civilian lives. These numbers could rise as a full damage assessment is still pending. Damage evaluations have been ordered, but access to affected areas remains difficult due to ongoing fire activity. YouTube video A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the region affected by the fire until 18:00 LT on Friday, January 12. The blaze is intensifying due to gusts of up to 72 km/h (45 mph). Dry and windy conditions are expected through Thursday, likely contributing to fire growth. Communities near Highways 118 and 210 remain at heightened risk of damage. Evacuation centers have been established at Pasadena Civic Center, El Camino Real Charter High School, and Westwood Recreation Center. Map of the regions affected by the Eaton Fire. Image credit Calfire The Foothill Municipal Water District has issued an advisory stating that water is unsafe in the following districts: Lincoln, Las Flores, Kinneola, and Rubio Canon. A total of 879 personnel have been assigned to combat the blaze, supported by 123 engines, seven hand crews, 16 bulldozers, and five water tenders.
Palisades Fire grows to most destructive wildfire in Los Angeles County’s history, California - The Watchers (videos) The Palisades Fire, now the most destructive wildfire in Los Angeles County’s history, has burned through over 8 094 ha (20 000 acres), destroyed more than 5 300 structures, and left Pacific Palisades in ruins since it ignited on January 7, 2024. With only 6% containment, the fire has ravaged entire neighborhoods, including some of the nation’s most affluent areas.The Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire are both active, with the latter burning through 14 000 acres (5 665 hectares) at 0% containment, contributing to massive structural losses and heightened threats to nearly 40 000 structures. The entire Pacific Palisades area has been devastated by the blaze, which has scorched the region and destroyed some of the most affluent neighborhoods in the country. Beachfront houses in the Malibu area have also been severely damaged by the fire.Nearly every structure north of Sunset Boulevard has been destroyed, along with much of the neighborhood’s downtown area. Significant landmarks, including the Community United Methodist Church of Pacific Palisades, St. Matthews Episcopal Parish School, and the Pacific Palisades Business Block, were among those destroyed.The Palisades Fire, the largest of four major wildfires currently affecting Los Angeles County, is expected to become the costliest wildfire in history, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.Reports suggest more than 10 deaths have occurred due to the active fires in the region, though these figures remain unconfirmed. Bodies have reportedly been discovered in houses in Malibu.In addition, at least 180 000 people have been forced out of their homes due to the burning fires.Several celebrities have lost their homes in Malibu due to the fire. Jamie Lee Curtis, James Woods, Mandy Moore, Mark Hamill, and Maria Shriver were among those forced to evacuate. Paris Hilton’s beachfront home was also destroyed by the blaze.The Eaton Fire, the second most destructive wildfire in the history of Los Angeles County, is burning concurrently with the Palisades Fire. This blaze has burned nearly 5 665 ha (14 000 acres) and remains at 0% containment since igniting on Tuesday.The fire has killed at least five people, injured five firefighters, and destroyed more than 4 000 structures, with nearly 40 000 additional structures under threat, according to official reports. Media outlets suggest the actual figures could be higher as assessments are still underway.At least 20 individuals have been arrested for looting since the fires began on Tuesday. “In the midst of the emergency, we have all seen individuals targeting vulnerable communities by burglarizing and looting homes. This is simply unacceptable,” Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger stated on Thursday.The Palisades and Eaton fires are the most destructive wildfires ever to strike Los Angeles County and rank among the most devastating in California’s history. The most destructive wildfire in California to date remains the Camp Fire of November 2018, which burned more than 61 915 ha (153 000 acres), destroyed nearly 19 000 structures, and claimed 85 lives.
Here's what really caused L.A. fire hydrants to run out of water - As multiple blazes ignited across Los Angeles, California on Tuesday, attention quickly shifted to another element: water. Within seven hours of the Palisades Fire igniting on the west side of the city, Janisse Quiñones, CEO of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said one of three million-gallon tankers available to fill the neighborhood’s hydrants had been bled dry. The next was finished later that evening; the final one reached empty in the early hours of Wednesday.By the time the smoke-shrouded sun rose, stories of tapped and broken hydrants stationed outside of burning homes were swirling across social media, eliciting a wide range of theories about what went wrong.But experts say this failure isn’t easily pinned on one issue or failure—instead, it’s the foreseeable result of a system that was never ready for the sort of climate change-fueled fires we now face in urban areas.Over the past decade, California has experienced historic drought conditions, which have resulted in water-restricting policies. And while the past two rainy winters have offered some reprieve in Southern California, 2025 has been off to a record-dry start. Climate scientist Daniel Swain referred to this swing between extreme rain and drought as “hydroclimate whiplash,” which his research found is exacerbated by global warming.While this boom-bust precipitation cycle creates particularly dangerous conditions for fires, it has allowed for California to see its previously shrinking water reserves fill in recent months. So while drought has been a persistent problem in Southern California, it wasn't behind the cause of the city's water shortages. It also can’t be chalked up to restrictions protecting the endangered Delta smelt, a tiny fish that has proved to be a perennially politically popular scapegoat for water issues. The fish’s protected status limits water usage in its Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta habitat, which some have argued should be freed up for human consumption.Quiñones instead explained it as an issue of access.During that roughly 15-hour window from the Palisades Fire sparking and the available water tanks running dry, Quiñones said the demand for water was four times the norm, causing water pressure to lower. This made it difficult to achieve the force needed to get water into the higher-elevation tanks, particularly at the rate necessary to address a fire moving five football fields a minute, boosted by the gusty Santa Ana winds."We pushed the system to the extreme," Quiñones said during a Wednesday news conference. “We're fighting a wildfire with an urban water system. And that is really challenging.” Misinformation swirled around the cause of the sudden loss of water, but city officials say the city's water system was never built for fires of this magnitude.Faith Kearns, a wildfire and water expert at Arizona State University, said understanding the impacts of wildfires on water systems is a relatively new area of study, particularly when it comes to urban areas like Los Angeles. Kearns co-authored a 2021 brief on this intersection, focusing on California and inspired by incidents like the 2017 Tubbs Fire, which burned into the city of Santa Rosa.“Everybody has known that there was the potential for something like this to happen because we've seen it on a smaller scale,” Kearns said.While the demand issues Quiñones cited is one aspect of the failure, Kearns believes a number of issues contributed to the overall lack of water where and when it was needed.The lack of fire hydrants would not have been quite as dire if the wind was not strong enough to prohibit helicopters from flying overhead and dropping waters—a challenge that also plagued firefighters responding to the Lahaina, Maui wildfire in 2023. Fires can also cause power cuts or damage water pipes and other infrastructure, creating additional issues all their own. The Palisades Fire has proved particularly challenging for firefighters, already recognized as the most destructive fire in Los Angeles County even as it continues to burn and the true toll is still unknown. Still, Kearns believes it speaks to a larger need to plan for these sort of unprecedented situations during which multiple lines of preparation might fail.“It was like a worst-case scenario, but I think we should be planning for those worst case scenarios,” she said. “You can't predict everything, but also, I do think this is where we're headed.”
State to probe why Pacific Palisades reservoir was offline, empty when firestorm exploded - Los Angeles Times - A large reservoir in Pacific Palisades that is part of the Los Angeles water supply system was out of commission when a ferocious wildfire destroyed thousands of homes and other structures nearby, the Los Angeles Times found. Officials said that the Santa Ynez Reservoir had been closed since about February for repairs to its cover, leaving a 117-million-gallon water storage complex empty in the heart of the Palisades for nearly a year. The revelation comes amid growing questions about why firefighters ran out of water while battling the blaze, which ignited Tuesday during catastrophically high winds. The Times reported early Wednesday that numerous fire hydrants in higher-elevation streets of the Palisades went dry, leaving crews struggling with low water pressure as they combated the flames. Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday ordered an independent investigation of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power over the loss of water pressure and the empty Santa Ynez Reservoir, calling it “deeply troubling.” “We need answers to how that happened,” Newsom said in a letter to leaders of DWP and L.A. County Public Works. DWP spokesperson Ellen Cheng said, “We appreciate the Governor’s letter and believe that an investigation will help identify any new needed capabilities for water systems to support fighting wildfires.” DWP officials have said that demand for water during an unprecedented fire made it impossible to maintain any pressure to hydrants at high elevations. Had the reservoir been operable, water pressure in the Palisades would have lasted longer on Tuesday night, said former DWP general manager Martin Adams, an expert on the city’s water system. But only for a time. “You still would have ended up with serious drops in pressure,” Adams said in an interview Thursday. “Would Santa Ynez [Reservoir] have helped? Yes, to some extent. Would it have saved the day? I don’t think so.” A DWP official acknowledged that the reservoir’s absence likely contributed to some diminished pressure and dry hydrants in upper regions of the Palisades. However, a spokesperson for the utility said in a statement that DWP was still evaluating the effect of the reservoir being placed offline, and that staffers were conducting a root-cause analysis. “Our primary focus is to provide water supply throughout the city,” the DWP spokesperson said, adding, “The system was never designed for a wildfire scenario that we are experiencing.” Emptying of the reservoir began in February after a tear in the floating cover measuring several feet allowed debris, bird droppings and other objects to enter the water supply. DWP drained the site to avoid contamination and comply with water regulations. DWP sought bids for the repair in April, at a cost of up to $89,000. In November, the utility signed off on a contract with a Lakeside firm for about $130,000, records show. The status of the repairs is unclear. The DWP’s employee union leader condemned the months-long wait to restore the reservoir. “It’s completely unacceptable that this reservoir was empty for almost a year for minor repairs,” Gus Corona, business manager of IBEW Local 18, said in an interview with The Times. “This work should have been done in-house, and they shouldn’t have depended on a contractor to do it,” he said. “I truly believe it’s something that could have been avoided.”
9,000 structures damaged or destroyed, 10 killed in L.A. County fires - Officials said Thursday that at least 10 people were killed and more than 9,000 homes, businesses and other buildings appeared to have been damaged or destroyed in the Palisades and Eaton fires. Around 5,300 of these structures were destroyed in the Palisades fire, while another 4,000 to 5,000 structures were estimated to be damaged or destroyed in the Eaton fire burning in the Altadena area. Officials made the estimate using aerial infrared technology and stressed that it was a preliminary number. If accurate, it would place the firestorm among the worst in Los Angeles history in terms of property damage. “The Palisades fire is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles,” said Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley. At a morning news conference, L.A. County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said growth of the Eaton fire had been “significantly stopped.” At 3:30 p.m., however, he announced that the fire had grown by more than 3,000 acres — to 13,690 acres — as it spread toward the historic Mt. Wilson area with 0% containment. Don Fregulia, an operations section chief with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said efforts to protect Mt. Wilson had proved successful and he expected that to remain the case. “We’re actively engaged there,” Fregulia said. “We’re feeling good about what we have to do up there tonight to keep that site secure.” The Palisades fire grew from around 17,200 acres Thursday morning to 19,978 acres Thursday evening, at which time the blaze was 6% contained, according to fire officials. And on Thursday afternoon a new blaze, dubbed the Kenneth fire, ignited in Woodland Hills and quickly spread to around 1,000 acres. At least 10 people have died in the fires, according to the Los Angeles County medical examiner. At least four deaths have been connected to the Eaton fire, and on Thursday officials confirmed the first death related to the Palisades fire, in Malibu. LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell said his officers were notified of a death investigation in the 15300 block of Friends Street in the Palisades area around 10 a.m. Thursday. The person’s cause of death was not immediately known.Authorities say the death toll from the fires will likely grow. Sheriff Robert Luna announced Thursday afternoon that a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew was in the works for areas affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires in an effort to deter looting and would probably start Friday. L.A. County Supervisor Kathryn Barger emphasized that the curfew was not to punish residents but to keep the area safe. She said the curfew was requested by the Altadena Town Council. Luna also said he had requested support from the California National Guard to assist with traffic control, infrastructure protection and looting deterrence for both the Eaton and Palisades fires. Gov. Gavin Newsom later announced he had approved the request, which will bring the total number of National Guard personnel deployed to help with regional wildfires to 8,000.
Los Angeles wildfires destroy over 10 000 structures, leave at least 10 people dead, California - (7 YouTube videos) Catastrophic wildfires fueled by powerful Santa Ana winds have been sweeping through Southern California since Tuesday, January 8, 2025, killing at least 10 people, displacing over 200 000 residents, and destroying more than 10 000 homes and buildings in just three days. In addition, more than 360 000 customers, or just over 1 million people in California were left without power. Multiple fast-growing wildfires, driven by powerful Santa Ana winds with wind gusts up to 160 km/h (100 mph), have been tearing through southern California since Tuesday. The fires have already scorched more than 10 927 ha (27 000 acres) of land, destroyed over 2 000 homes and buildings, and claimed at least five lives. The rapid spread of the flames has forced the evacuation of more than 200 000 residents, leaving over 1 million people without power. Authorities are describing the situation as one of the most destructive wildfire outbreaks the region has ever experienced. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire, at least 5 wildfires are burning throughout the state — down from 7 on Wednesday, January 8. The Palisades Fire has burnt through more than 6 880 ha ( 17 000 acres) and is at 0% containment. The Eaton Fire has scorched through more than 4 250 ha (10 500 acres) and stands at 0% containment. The Hurst Fire stands at 10% containment having burned through more than 344 ha (850 acres), and the Lidia Fire has also burnt through nearly 142 ha (350 acres) and has been 40 % contained. Meanwhile, the Sunset fire had burned through at least 24 ha (60 acres) of land near Hollywood Hill at 0% containment. LA County Fire Chief Anthony C. Marrone stated during a Wednesday morning news conference that the county’s resources are overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster. “L.A. County and all 29 fire departments in our county are not prepared for this type of widespread disaster,” he said, adding, “There are not enough firefighters in L.A. County to address four separate fires of this magnitude.” More than 200 000 people are under mandatory evacuation order due to the fires, with both the Palisades and Eaton fires having destroyed more than 1 000 structures each. Both of the blazes have been ranked among the 20 most destructive fires in the history of California and the most destructive blazes to hit Los Angeles. The Altadena Sheriff’s Office was forced to evacuate after its building caught fire. Hollywood actors, including Mark Hamill, Mandy Moore, and James Woods, were among those forced to flee. The home of Vice President Kamala Harris in Los Angeles was within one of the evacuation zones, although no one was present at the residence, according to a spokesperson. More than 360 000 customers or just over 1 million people in southern California are out of power, according to Poweroutage.us. Meanwhile, an unsafe water alert has been issued for areas affected by the wildfire. The authorities have urged citizens to stick to bottled water as the city’s water supply might have been contaminated and residents should not attempt to treat the water on your own. In addition to 5 fatalities, multiple people with burn injuries have been rushed to hospitals in critical condition. These include a 25-year-old female firefighter who sustained a serious head injury. Among the injured is a man discovered walking along a road with severe burns and most of his clothing incinerated. He remains in critical condition, according to FOX 11 Los Angeles. Winds are expected to shift to the north at 15 – 30 km/h (10 – 20 mph) overnight Thursday, with gusts up to 75 km/h (45 mph) in some areas. Conditions will remain dry and windy through Thursday, with high fire weather risk persisting into Friday under a Fire Weather Watch. Communities in wind-prone areas, especially near Highways 118 and 210, remain at heightened risk for damage and fire outbreaks.
Eaton Fire still raging in Southern California Saturday as Santa Ana winds pick back up - The Eaton Fire – one of a multitude of wildfires incinerating the Los Angeles area – is still burning with little containment on Saturday as the Santa Ana wind event fueling the blazes is set to continue into next week. As of 6:30 a.m. Saturday, the Eaton Fire had scorched 14,117 acres and was 15% contained, which is up from the 3% containment reported on Friday night. According to preliminary estimates from CalFire, over 7,000 structures have been destroyed by the blaze, which has also claimed at least six lives, including one man who died while defending a home that had been in his family for 55 years.The incredibly destructive wildfire has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of area residents.Fire crews were aided by a lull in the Santa Ana winds that have been fueling the fires over the past couple of days, but authorities and weather officials are now shifting their concerns to an increase in gusty winds throughout the region. “The fire is burning in an area with steep, complex terrain and critically dry fuels,” CalFire said in their latest Eaton Fire status update, issued at 6:24 a.m. Saturday. “Despite these difficulties, minimal fire growth was observed [on Friday], and priorities include maintaining current containment lines and ensuing perimeter control.” “Gusty northeast winds will return to high elevations Saturday night into Sunday with gusts up to 30 miles per hour and relative humidity decreasing back below 20 percent,” the status update also stated. “Another Santa Ana wind event is possible around next Tuesday.” The National Weather Service echoed those same sentiments, forecasting “moderate to locally strong” Santa Ana winds through at least Wednesday. Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions will continue through that time, according to NWS. “These winds combined with dry air and dry vegetation will keep the fire weather threat in the area,” weather officials said. “Moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds will affect the typical Santa Ana wind corridors on Saturday to Sunday and again Monday through Wednesday.”
Southern California wildfires prompt more evacuations overnight; LA County declares health emergency --The expanding wildfires in Southern California have prompted more evacuation orders overnight while the Los Angeles County Public Health Department declared a local health emergency, stating the developments are causing “significant health and safety risks for residents across the county.” The Palisades Fire, the biggest of the six active wildfires in the Los Angeles area, has expanded east late on Friday and forced officials to declare evacuation orders in Encino and Brentwood neighborhoods. The wildfires have, so far, killed at least 11 people and have burned more than 37,000 acres,according to Cal Fire’s latest data. The flames, which initially started on Tuesday, have destroyed over 12,000 structures and have displaced tens of thousands of Californians. The Palisades Fire is the largest of the blazes, having burned over 21,000 acres with eight percent containment. The second biggest one is the Eaton Fire with more than 14,000 burned acres with three percent being contained, according to Cal Fire. On Friday, the county public health department declared a local health emergency due to the far-reaching wildfires. “The fires, coupled with strong winds, have severely degraded air quality by releasing hazardous smoke and particulate matter, posing immediate and long-term risks to public health,” the department wrote in a Friday press release. “Additionally, the fires have caused widespread displacement of residents, prompted emergency evacuations from healthcare facilities, and disrupted vital health services and resources.” The department prohibited the use of power air blowers, including leaf blowers, because their use would “stir up ash and particulate matter into the air, further worsening air quality and increasing health risks for everyone and their pets.”The department also issued a series of recommendations for residents to better protect themselves, including directing them to stay indoors or limit their exposure if they see or smell smoke or even notice ash in the air, “especially if you have heart or lung conditions, are elderly, or have children.”
Climate change and fires: How higher temperatures increase risk -Climate change is making the Western United States drier, which can fuel wildfires like those affecting Los Angeles. With higher temperatures come parched landscapes full of vegetation that can accelerate and exacerbate blazes. “Climate change has a way in which it dries the landscape out faster, keeping the landscape able to ignite and carry fire and that provides less resistance for a fire to spread,” said John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist with the University of California, Merced. Abatzoglou added that such “spread” can contribute not only to larger fires, but also to help them in “overcoming some of the barriers and encroaching upon communities.” As Southern California burns, global warming is literally and figuratively heating up. U.S. and European Union scientists announced Friday that 2024 was officially the hottest year on record. And, in a shift, the U.S. carbon emissions that cause climate change did not significantly slow down last year, a new report found this past week. Warming gives the air “a higher capacity” to hold water, said Jatan Buch, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University who studies wildfires. In fact, Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor of Earth system science at Stanford University, said that at higher temperatures, the air “actually demands more water.” He added that this “draws moisture out of vegetation and soils.”In other words: The air is thirsty.Researchers with the University of California, Los Angeles found in a 2021 study that the main driver of this thirst — known as the air’s vapor pressure deficit — was climate change.Vapor pressure deficit, in turn, is the main cause of wildfire increase in the Western U.S. The study found that 32 percent of the deficit or thirst could be explained by natural weather variation, while the other 68 percent was due to man-made warming. Another study, from 2020, found that “megadrought” conditions created the second-driest period in the region since the year 800 and were made 46 percent worse by climate change. The researchers wrote that climate change pushed “an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst … megadroughts since 800 CE.”
Warm seawater encroaches on major Antarctic ice shelf, raising sea level concerns - The vast Antarctic Ice Sheet holds more than half of Earth's freshwater. In several places around the continent, the ice extends over the ocean, where it forms large floating shelves. Observations suggest many of these ice shelves are thinning as they melt from below, with implications for ocean dynamics, global sea level, and Earth's climate. For now, the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf—one of Antarctica's biggest, extending over the Weddell Sea—appears to be relatively stable, thanks to near-freezing currents circulating over the continental shelf beneath it. However, climate models predict that shifting ocean currents may bring warmer water to the continental shelf in the future. To gain a clearer picture of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf's future, Steiger analyzed water temperature and velocity data from 2017 to 2021. The data were captured by sensors attached to bottom moorings along the seafloor and subsurface floats near the ice shelf. The findings are published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. Prior research had already shown that during summer, relatively warm seawater rises from middle depths in the nearby ocean up to the continental shelf, then along the undersea Filchner Trough toward the edge of the ice shelf. However, most of these observations have been limited to single-site or single-year data. In this study, researchers found that the summertime flow of warm water occurs not just along the Filchner Trough but also along a second, smaller trough to the east and that the relative importance of each path varies from year to year. During warmer-than-average years, the warm water flows more rapidly across the continental shelf. The analysis also highlights two summers, 2017 and 2018, when both anomalously warm inflows and anomalously low amounts of floating sea ice occurred. The researchers suggest that scant ice cover alters ocean dynamics, causing warm water to rise and more readily surge onto the continental shelf. It is not clear whether the warmer flows of 2017 and 2018 actually reached the edge of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf itself. However, researchers did observe warmer waters meeting the ice in summer 2013, and previous research suggested this warm water movement was associated with wind patterns. Ongoing observation could help clarify the precise drivers of year-to-year differences in this warm water flow.
Intense seismo-volcanic crisis near Dofen volcano forces thousands to evacuate, Ethiopia - A series of strong earthquakes, a newly opened volcanic vent, and the appearance of large cracks near the long-dormant Dofen volcano in Ethiopia’s Afar region triggered the evacuation of thousands of people on January 4, 2025. Authorities in Ethiopia have launched an evacuation of thousands of people living near Dofen volcano (also known as Dofan) after an M5.7 earthquake that struck at 03:52 LT (00:52 UTC) on January 4. This earthquake is part of a larger seismo-volcanic crisis affecting the region since December 22, 2024, with dozens of moderate to strong earthquakes, large cracks opening around the volcano, and a powerful new vent in Dulecha District of Afar Region shooting out a mix of gas, rocks, and mud. The earthquakes started on December 22, with USGS registering 65 quakes with magnitudes ranging from 4 to 5.7. According to locals, at least 30 homes have collapsed and several others sustained damage. The evacuation operation is expected to take several days because of the scale of the affected area and logistical challenges including damaged roads and disrupted infrastructure. Residents are being relocated to temporary shelters in nearby safer zones. Large cracks appearing in multiple districts including Haruka District’s Kelat Buri Kebele have added urgency to the evacuation. The cracks have rendered an important water pump supplying agricultural fields inoperable. The ground in some areas has sunk into valleys and intensified fears among the local population. The Ethiopian Geological Institute has reported that volcanic mudflows are complicating evacuation logistics. Footage from Mount Dofan shows steam and gas emissions and raises concerns of an imminent eruption — which would be the first known eruption at this volcano in history. A new vent opened on Mount Dofen and released steam, gas, rocks, and mud on January 3. The development followed an M5.5 earthquake recorded at 17:01 UTC approximately 44 km (27 miles) northeast (NE) of Awash at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The vent activity is believed to result from magma intrusion beneath the surface which can lead to hydrothermal or phreatic explosions. The vent’s opening showed an increase in activity and prompted local authorities to issue warnings for potential evacuations. Residents in towns such as Awash (population of 11 400) and Metahara (population of 23 400) have reported feeling continuous tremors throughout the night. “The steam eruptions may not necessarily lead to a full-blown volcanic eruption, but caution is essential given the region’s history of geological activity,” Professor Atalay Ayele from Addis Ababa University stated. There are about 1 900 people living within 5 km (3 miles) of Dofen volcano, 12 450 within 10 km (6 miles), and 54 930 within 30 km (19 miles).
Over 80 000 people evacuating as seismic activity increases in Afar and Oromia, Ethiopia - The increase in seismic activity has prompted the relocation of approximately 80 000 residents to safer areas in Ethiopia’s Afar and Oromia regions. Ethiopia’s Afar and Oromia regions have experienced a sharp increase in seismic activity between January 4 and 6, 2025. More than 20 earthquakes which ranged in magnitude from 4.2 and 5.8 were recorded in the Awash and Dulecha districts during this period. The strongest tremor of the M5.8 earthquake struck near the Dofen mountains on January 4 damaging infrastructure including the Kesem Sugar Factory. The seismic activity in the region started on December 22, 2024, and is believed to be linked to magma movement in the Fentale volcanic complex within the Main Ethiopian Rift. Steam vents emitting gases have been observed though it remains uncertain whether a volcanic eruption will occur. Scientists are conducting assessments to understand the potential risks including the possibility of an eruption from Fentale, Dofen, or a new volcanic vent. Approximately 80 000 people have been impacted across the 2 regions with 60 000 affected in Afar and 20 000 in Oromia. The government is relocating residents from high-risk areas to safer locations to mitigate risks. Over 13 730 households in Afar and approximately 1 400 households in Oromia have already been relocated on January 6. A total of 30 000 people have been evacuated with plans to relocate an additional 50 000. 13 relocation sites have been designated in the affected areas. In the Awash district, these include Daido, Asbole Boda, and Medala. In the Dulecha district, Garrayto, Hadale Abur, Gudili, and Daido have been identified. In Oromia, sites such as Tututi, Turo, Gidara, Alge, Galcha, Fateledi, Sarawayba, and Matahara town are being prepared to accommodate the displaced population. The earthquake has caused damage to homes, health centers, schools, roads, and critical infrastructure despite no reported casualties. Expanding fissures in the ground have raised concerns about the Kesem/Sabure Dam which holds a substantial volume of water. Any structural failure could result in catastrophic flooding downstream and can endanger hundreds of thousands of lives while the dam is engineered to withstand earthquakes up to an M5.6.
Powerful M7.1 earthquake hits western Xizang, leaving over 90 fatalities, China - A very strong earthquake registered by the USGS as M7.1 hit western Xizang, China at 01:05 UTC (09:05 LT) on January 7, 2025. The agency is reporting a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). EMSC is reporting M7.0 at a depth of 10 km. China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) is reporting M6.8 and a depth of 10 km. The epicenter was located in Dingri County of Xizang Autonomous Region, 94 km (58 miles) NE of Lobuche (population 8 767), 141 km (88 miles) N of Khā̃dbāri̇̄, Nepal, and 163 km (101 miles) WSW of Rikaze (population 80 000), Tibet. 4 000 people are estimated to have felt severe shaking, 15 000 very strong, 57 000 strong, and 520 000 moderate. The USS issued a Yellow alert for shaking-related fatalities. Some casualties are possible. Orange alert was issued for economic losses. Significant damage is likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of China. Past events with this alert level have required a regional or national level response. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with mud construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses. According to the latest figures from Chinese authorities, 95 people have been confirmed dead and 130 others were injured. China Earthquake Administration launched a level-II emergency service response and sent a work team to the site to assist with disaster relief efforts. Some 22 000 disaster relief items, including cotton tents, cotton coats, quilts and folding beds, together with special relief materials for high-altitude and frigid areas, have been dispatched by central authorities to the quake-hit area. Over 1 500 local firefighters and rescue workers have also been dispatched. The 2025 Xizang, China Earthquake occurred as a result of normal faulting at a shallow depth, north of the boundary between the Eurasian and Indian plates. Focal mechanism analyses indicate that the rupture occurred along a roughly north-south striking fault, dipping moderately to either the east or west. The earthquake’s location lies within the Eurasian plate, north of the Himalayan Mountains, where the ongoing continental collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates drives the region’s tectonic activity and mountain uplift.
Major X1.1 solar flare erupts from Region 3947, G1 geomagnetic storm in progress - A major solar flare measuring X1.1 erupted from Active Region (AR) 3947 at 22:41 UTC on January 3, 2025. The event started at 22:32 and ended at 22:51 UTC. This is the second X-class solar flare produced on January 3 — both from AR 3947. Meanwhile, CME produced on January 1 impacted Earth early January 4, sparking G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm. A Type II Radio Emission, with estimated velocity of 465 km/s was detected at 22:44 UTC, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with the flare event. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. This is the second X-class solar flare of the day, following X1.2 at 11:39 UTC from the same region — AR 3947 (beta-delta). The X1.2 event resulted in an easterly CME that was first visible in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery near 12:00 UTC. “However, analysis and modeling have determined this event to be well off the Sun-Earth line,” SPWC forecasters said. Four M-class were produced following the X1.1 late January 3, including M5.8 at 23:56 UTC and M7.6 at 05:18 UTC on January 4 — all from AR 3947. A CME produced on January 1 was detected at DSCOVR spacecraft at Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point — about 1.5 million km (1 million miles) from Earth, at 02:11 UTC on January 4. This was a glancing blow that sparked G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming over the next couple of hours. There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun.
Major X1.8 solar flare erupts from AR 3947 - third X-class in a day - (video) A major solar flare measuring X1.8 erupted from Active Region (AR) 3947 at 12:48 UTC on January 4, 2025. The event started at 12:35 and ended at 12:56 UTC. This is the third X-class solar flare after X1.2 at 11:39 UTC and X1.1 at 22:41 UTC on January 3 — all produced by AR 3947. A large coronal mass ejection (CME), with an estimated velocity of 314 km/s, was produced during the event, but the location of this region still doesn’t favor Earth-directed CMEs. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over parts of South America, South Atlantic Ocean, and Africa. This is the third, and strongest, X-class solar flare in just over 24 hours — all of them from AR 3947. It follows X1.2 at 11:39 UTC on January 3, which resulted in an easterly CME determined to be well off the Sun-Earth line, and X1.1 at 22:41 UTC —also associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. Over the past 24 hours, AR 3947 evolved further, gained additional intermediate spots, and grew in overall areal coverage, suggesting it will continue producing powerful flares and signaling possible Earth-directed CMEs in the days ahead as it rotates into a geoeffective position.
CO2 from Gas-Fired Plants Record High, Yet Overall Emissions Down --Marcellus Drilling News -- -- For the first time, over 1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) was discharged from U.S. gas-fired power plants in a single year in 2024. It marks a new pollution threshold for the world’s largest gas producer and consumer of natural gas. Yet, because natgas has replaced coal and other higher-polluting sources of electric power, U.S. power emissions from all fossil fuels were up only 0.5% in 2024 from 2023, to 1.64 billion tons. And get this:Overall emissions from all sources were down 19% last year versus 2015. Using natural gas to produce electricity makes the country “greener,” something the media ignores.
U.S. Efforts to Cut Emissions Stalled in 2024 as Power Demand Surged - The New York Times - America’s efforts to cut its climate change pollution stalled in 2024, with greenhouse gas emissions dropping just a fraction, 0.2 percent, compared to the year before, according to estimates published Thursday by the Rhodium Group, a research firm.Despite continued rapid growth in solar and wind power, emissions levels stayed relatively flat last year because demand for electricity surged nationwide, which led to a spike in the amount of natural gas burned by power plants. The fact that emissions didn’t decline much means the United States is even further off-track from hitting President Biden’s goal of slashing greenhouse gases 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Scientists say all major economies would have to cut their emissions deeply this decade to keep global warming at relatively low levels. Since 2005, United States emissions have fallen roughly 20 percent, a significant drop at a time when the economy has also expanded. But to meet its climate goals, U.S. emissions would need to decline nearly 10 times as fast each year as they’ve fallen over the past decade. That seems increasingly unlikely, experts say, especially since President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to dismantleMr. Biden’s climate policies and promote the production of fossil fuels, the burning of which generates greenhouse gases.“On the one hand, it is notable that we’ve now seen two years in a row where the U.S. economy grew but emissions went down,” said Ben King, an associate director at the Rhodium Group. “But it’s far from enough to achieve our climate targets.”
EPA to require municipal waste incinerators monitor for toxic emissions --The EPA plans to require the nation’s municipal waste incinerators to monitor for dangerous air emissions, a move environmental groups have hailed as a major step toward reining in a staggering source of localized toxic air pollutionthat most frequently hits low-income neighborhoods.Municipal incinerators’ stacks often spew hazardous pollutants like dioxins, particulate matter, PFAS, carbon monoxide, acid gases, or nitrogen oxides. The substances are linked to cancer, developmental disorders and other serious diseases, but still are burned with limited or patchwork oversight.The new rule would require about 60 such facilities across the country to consider about 800 chemicals that are part of the federal toxic releases inventory. The data could be used to inform local residents about what’s being emitted, litigate, alert first responders, increase monitoring, or inform state and federal regulators on how to set new pollution limits. The EPA is “doing the right thing”, said Mike Ewall, executive director of the Energy Justice Network public health advocacy group. It co-led a citizens’ rulemaking petition signed by 300 environmental groups requesting the EPA take the step.“This industry is worse than landfilling, dirtier than coal burning, and disproportionately impacts people of color,” Ewall added.Municipal incinerators burn residential and commercial garbage as an alternative to landfilling. They are often prolific polluters and, public health groups say, under-regulated. The waste streams are filled with consumer goods and materials that contain PFAS that are not destroyed in the incineration process, or PVC that forms dioxins when burned.The controversial facilities have been at the center of numerous public health battles. In Detroit, a citizen lawsuit under the US Clean Air Act shut down the then-largest municipal incinerator, which for decades spewed high levels of carbon monoxide in a low income neighborhood near the city’s downtown.Despite the toxic emissions, incinerators often position themselves as “green” businesses to receive subsidies for producing energy. The new reporting requirements “will help disprove the claims”, said Tim Whitehouse, executive director of the public health advocacy group Peer, and a former EPA enforcement attorney. “A lot of people behind the scenes are applauding this because they know incinerators are greenwashing themselves as a clean energy source,” he added.The EPA did reject a portion of the petition that asked the EPA to monitor medical waste incineration and sewage sludge incineration at wastewater treatment facilities. Incineration of sewage sludge, a byproduct of the wastewater treatment process, is especially a problem because it is virtually always laden with PFAS. The agency said it does not have the staffing to monitor those, but left the door open to do it later. The EPA made the decision after receiving the rule-making petition led by Peer and the Environmental Justice Network. The agency rarely acts on such citizen petitions, but Whitehouse said the decision follows a previous EPA proposal to require monitoring. The proposal was never implemented, but the Biden EPA has reinvigorated the TRI, Whitehouse said. Environmental groups are “expecting fierce industry pushback” he added, and the measure’s proposal is uncertain with Trump taking over the EPA. But the EPA would be open to litigation if it does not implement the rules, Whitehouse said. “I’m not holding high hopes the Trump administration will rush to do this but we will hold its feet to the fire,” he added.
Japan EV sales plummet 33% in 2024, first decline in four years - -- Sales of electric vehicles in Japan fell 33% year-on-year to 59,736 cars in 2024, the first decline in four years, according to data from car dealers and importers compiled by Nikkei on Thursday. EVs' share of all vehicle sales fell below 2% in Japan, the lowest among major advanced economies. While global EV sales are still growing, albeit more slowly, Japan's reluctance to adopt EVs is becoming increasingly apparent.
South Korean Battery Giants Face Steep Losses Amid Global EV Slowdown — In a stark reversal of fortune, South Korea’s leading battery manufacturers are bracing for significant fourth-quarter losses as the electric vehicle market faces a prolonged period of stagnating demand. LG Energy Solution, one of the country’s top battery makers, reported an operating loss of 225.5 billion won in the fourth quarter, a dramatic shift from its 338.2 billion won operating profit in the same period a year earlier. Without the 377.3 billion won in U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Production Credits (AMPC) factored in, the company’s underlying loss reached 602.8 billion won. Sales dropped 19.4% to 6.45 trillion won from 8.01 trillion won. The outlook appears equally grim for its domestic rivals. Samsung SDI is expected to swing to a loss in the fourth quarter, according to analyst consensus compiled by Yonhap Infomax. SK On, which had just achieved its first quarterly profit in the third quarter, is also projected to return to the red. The industry faces what analysts describe as a “triple threat”: weakening demand, oversupply, and policy uncertainty. Major automakers have responded to the market slowdown by adjusting their electric vehicle launch schedules and maintaining higher inventory levels, adopting more conservative sales strategies. Adding to the pressure, Chinese competitors like CATL and BYD are rapidly expanding their market share, leveraging their price competitiveness to address domestic oversupply through exports.
Major legal brawl may decide what types of cars Americans can buy - Blue states are bracing for a battle with the Trump administration over their authority to limit tailpipe emissions, a showdown that will have major repercussions on the types of cars and trucks sold to American drivers. All sides expect President-elect Donald Trump to try to revoke states’ authority to adopt California’s strict rules on the pollution spewed by vehicles. Many states’ efforts to fight climate change hinge on a federal process that allows them to adopt stringent regulations for transportation, the country’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. This long-standing waiver authority allows California — and the dozen or so states that follow its lead — to apply rules that go beyond federal limits and cover everything from specific pollutants to sales of certain vehicles. The states following the stricter California standards make up a significant portion of the U.S. auto market and exert major leverage over the cars that are offered to American consumers. “It becomes a de facto national standard,” said Ethan Elkind, director of the climate program at the Center for Law, Energy & the Environment at the UC Berkeley School of Law. “The combined might of California and those other states is pretty significant.” During his first term, Trump attempted to revoke California’s waiver authority, an action many states challenged as unlawful. The effort to deny the waivers was tied up in legal challenges until President Joe Biden took office. This time, Trump will have a “much more cohesive plan” to block state efforts to clean up their cars and trucks, Elkind said. California is urging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to finalize several pending waivers before Trump returns to the White House. Officials in blue states are preparing to defend their authority in court should Trump seek to revoke the waivers. And attorneys general in some red states are pushing to end the waivers altogether — mounting a legal challenge to California’s power to set its own rules. “Without [California’s waiver authority], we would probably be a decade or more behind where we are today in terms of the U.S. automotive market,” said Mary Nichols, former chair of the California Air Resources Board, the agency that issues the state’s auto regulations. “In terms of reaching our climate goals, it’s essential.” Nichols now serves as the distinguished counsel for the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the UCLA School of Law. When Congress enacted federal air quality laws in the 1960s, it gave California the authority to go above and beyond national standards because it was the only state to already have passed its own auto emissions rules. The state’s geography, with mountains that trap harmful pollution in heavily populated areas, also contributed to California’s unique status. Over 50-plus years, the state has received more than 100 waivers from the feds covering everything from particulate matter to catalytic converters to “check engine” lights. The EPA allows other states to adopt the regulations set by California. Seventeen other states and the District of Columbia have adopted some portion of California’s regulations — representing 40% of the light-duty vehicle market and more than 25% of the heavy-duty market. “These waivers are a really important part of our strategy to reduce emissions in line with what climate science tells us what we need to do,” said Joel Creswell, climate pollution reduction program manager with the Washington State Department of Ecology. “They’re also really important for our air quality near road communities.”
Study finds minimal impact of wildfire smoke on solar panel function --The wildfire smoke that often wafts across the U.S. West may only be causing minimal disturbance to the output of photovoltaic solar panels, a new study has found. Smoke-linked losses of photovoltaic resources remain modest outside of the areas immediately surrounding active blazes, where plumes are denser, according to the study, published in Nature Communications.Meanwhile, power produced by panels nationwide has remained relatively stable — even during extreme fire seasons, the study authors observed.While previous studies have focused on the connection between specific wildfire events and solar panel function, the researchers sought to understand any impacts from smoke cover spreading across the U.S.“We show there are significant impacts to solar power resources near these fires,” first author Kimberley Corwin said in a statement, referring to the immediate areas of the big blazes. “When smoke is transported farther away, as we have seen in the Midwest and along the East Coast recently, it presents much less of a concern in terms of prolonged solar losses,” added Corwin, a postdoctoral fellow at Colorado State University. That knowledge, she explained, could have major implications as the U.S. looks to ramp up the contributions of solar power in its overall energy portfolio and strategizes where to place future facilities. Corwin and her colleagues specifically looked at the impact of wildfire smoke on irradiance, or the amount of solar light that makes its way to the surface of a panel. In general, solar power generation can be hampered by many factors, including cloud cover, smoke and other sources of air pollution. The scientists focused on a particular type of irradiance — which includes both direct sunlight and sunlight scattered by the atmosphere — and which is most relevant to prevalent flat-plate photovoltaic systems. During the very active 2020 wildfire season, smoke burning in California, Colorado and Oregon ultimately covered large swaths of the East Coast. Yet although the plumes brought some short-term production losses, they only caused modest long-term effects, according to the study. “While you do see large reductions close to active fires, that drops off quickly with distance,” Corwin said. “Substantial losses are specific to the area directly around the fire where the smoke column is denser and therefore blocks more of the light.” Output levels for fire-adjacent California photovoltaic (PV) plants in 2020 plunged by about 11-17 percent in comparison to averages of low-smoke years, while those near blazes in Greece in 2021 dropped by 10-20 percent, per the study. The massive, traveling smoke plumes do linger in the skies for days, but they do so in a diluted form and in a way comparable to other weather variabilities, according to Corwin. “Even during extreme wildfire seasons with heavy smoke, as seen in 2020, we project little change in average PV resource availability, except in areas with optically thick, fresh, local smoke plumes,” the authors stated. The decreases caused by transported smoke typically stayed below 5 percent and, in some areas, less than 2 percent, Corwin noted.
Biden expands wind and solar tax credit to nuclear, hydropower, geothermal energy - The Biden administration on Tuesday finalized a guidance that expands a tax credit that has historically applied only to wind and solar power to a range of other energy technologies. Under a new guidance issued Tuesday, the credit will also be able to be claimed by producers of power from sources like nuclear, geothermal, waterpower and marine wave energy. The move is not necessarily a surprise, as 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act made the tax credit “technology neutral,” meaning it can apply to any energy source whose carbon emissions fall below a certain threshold. But Biden’s move this week formally applied it to these specific technologies — and excludes other power sources like biomass energy facilities that are not yet under construction. The rules say that future changes to the list of energy sources that can qualify for the credits will need to come with an analysis prepared by the Energy Department’s National Labs. “The final rules issued today will help ensure America’s clean energy investment boom continues – driving down utility costs for American families and small businesses, creating good-paying construction jobs, and strengthening energy security by making the U.S. more resistant to price shocks,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a written statement. The guidance is one of several last-minute actions taken by the Biden administration as it seeks to get as much of its agenda across the finish line as possible before the Trump administration takes office. Ultimately, that administration may try to make further changes to the guidance. It also may try to, with the help of Congress, repeal or otherwise weaken the tax credit more broadly.
Former FERC Chairman Calls for All-of-the-Above Energy Approach to Win AI Race -- A sea change is on the horizon for U.S. energy policy, but the transformation is likely to be shaped more by the demands of the moment than by President Trump’s second term, according to former FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee. While at the helm of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission during part of Trump’s first term, Chatterjee witnessed firsthand the challenges of permitting energy projects. But, he now expects Democrats and Republicans to increasingly coalesce around an all-of-the-above energy approach to meet the forecasted surge in demand for the growth of artificial intelligence (AI). Chatterjee discussed some of his predictions about what to expect for energy policy in the years ahead.
PJM ‘shovel-ready’ interconnection plan draws mixed reviews at FERC -The PJM Interconnection’s proposal for a fast-track interconnection review for shovel-ready generation projects sparked a mixed response at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, according to Wednesday filings at the agency.State utility regulators, PJM’s market monitor, the PJM Power Providers Group, or P3, and electric utilities were among the supporters of PJM’s proposed Reliability Resource Initiative. Renewable energy developers, including Invenergy, and advocacy groups, such as the Sierra Club, oppose the grid operator’s plan, partly because they say it could delay pending interconnection reviews.PJM floated its Reliability Resource Initiative in early October to address potential near-term grid reliability problems. After a fast-track review by stakeholders, who didn’t vote on the initiative, PJM asked FERC in mid-December to approve it by Feb. 11. PJM estimates that its proposal could bring online at least 10 GW of capacity with high effective load carrying capability, or ELCC, ratings by 2028.Under the plan, PJM would let 50 projects enter an interconnection review process — Transition Cycle 2 — that is set to start early this year. The projects must meet scoring criteria for reliability, viability and availability. About 1,060 projects were eligible to enter Transition Cycle 2 as of mid-December, according to PJM.The Organization of PJM States, Inc., which represents state utility regulators, supports the initiative. “While PJM is working towards clearing its interconnection queue backlog, the reality is that resources waiting in line or attempting to respond to high [capacity] price signals cannot get through PJM’s interconnection process in the near term,” OPSI told FERC. “The RRI is a response to these challenges.”Dominion Energy, East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Exelon, FirstEnergy and PPL Electric also support PJM’s proposal. The utility companies said they were especially concerned that PJM could fall below its 17.8% reserve margin target in 2026 because of power plant retirements, the slow pace of bringing intermittent generation online and load growth.P3 said the proposal could be improved and that the trade group for power plant owners in PJM didn’t agree with all of PJM’s justifications for it. “However, considering this is a one-time PJM initiative and the need for timely FERC resolution is paramount, the filing is within the zone of just and reasonableness such that it warrants commission approval,” P3 said.
Biden boosted investment in the electric grid. What will Trump do? - President Joe Biden learned to love transmission during his four years in the White House. The question now is whether President-elect Donald Trump will show the same ardor for large power lines when he returns to the Oval Office.Biden threw the weight of the presidency behind transmission development as part of a wider effort to green America’s electric grid. But as he enters his final weeks in office, some of Biden’s efforts are still falling into place.A nearly $5 billion loan guarantee for a massive Midwestern power line is pending. Federal financial support for four major transmission projects worth $1.5 billion is yet to be completed. And two major regional grants worth nearly $640 million, one for transmission upgrades in the Mountain West and another for an offshore wind interconnection in New England, are still in negotiation.Trump has long been a skeptic of renewable energy and criticized its role as a growing source of American power generation. The president-elect pledged this week to put an end to new “windmills.”Still, Trump may have his own reasons for backing big power line projects. Technology industry billionaires lined up to fund his campaign for the White House banking on more federal support for their energy-hungry endeavors, including the artificial intelligence boom and cryptocurrency. A high-voltage grid that can move a lot of energy to data centers across the country is critical for scaling up America’s leading industry.Trump also comes to office as the state of grid reliability is provoking increasing concerns. The nation’s grid watchdog told Congress major transmission expansions are needed to bolster the reliability of an electric grid straining to keep up with demand and to handle assaults by bigger and more frequent storms.Trump has pledged to dismantle Biden’s clean energy programs and cut the size of government. It’s still unclear whether that extends to transmission. The result is a high-stakes race for major power line projects to finalize federal support in the waning days of Biden’s presidency.“I’m not worried about it once it’s contracted but I’m definitely worried about it before it’s contracted,” Kate Gordon, a former senior adviser to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, told POLITICO’s E&E News. “Getting money out the door is critical.”Larry Gasteiger, executive director of WIRES, a trade association supporting grid investment, said the future legal exposure of the Biden grid projects is uncertain.“I hope these types of projects don’t get bogged down in litigation over whether they can move forward or not, either because of the existence or absence of any binding contracts,” he said. “The fact is that we’re going to need a lot of transmission over the next decade or so. Nothing in the change in administrations is going to alter that.”Development of “big wires” projects had almost ceased by the end of the first Trump administration, declining sharply after 2013. Power demand across the nation had been relatively flat. High-voltage transmission was also getting harder to build: Projects were tied up in decadeslong litigation and NIMBY protests, and state officials were waging battles against long lines.At the start of the Biden administration four years ago, the need for long-distance transmission hinged on Biden’s aspirational commitment to convert a U.S. power grid dominated by fossil fuels into a net-zero electricity system within 15 years. And this year, a detailed computer analysis from the Department of Energy concluded that a much larger grid would be needed to move green power from one region of the country to another.Biden sought to give new power lines a boost with billions of dollars in funding and tax incentives from the bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act, an unprecedented clean energy commitment. DOE created the Grid Deployment Office to oversee transmission investments, which include a $10.5 billion grant program to enhance grid resilience and a $2.5 billion revolving fund to help finance new lines.DOE approved a $700 million grant to the North Plains Connector in North Dakota and Montana, which would create the first grid connection between the North American eastern and western grid systems currently separated by the Rocky Mountains. Biden also convened a cabinet-level committee headed by senior White House adviser John Podesta that helped push a half dozen big projects through the federal permitting gauntlet, according to a 2023 summary by the consulting firm Grid Strategies for Americans for a Clean Energy Grid.In all, 10 big wires projects got under construction between 2021 and 2023, reversing years of almost no work on long, regional lines.“It’s encouraging to see the uptick in development and market interest,” said Rob Gramlich, president of Grid Strategies. “But the clock is running out, given the long time frames of transmission development. We need to be doing a lot more than we are now.”
NPCC Study Says NY, New England Each Need 7.1 GW of Gas-Fired Power - Yesterday, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) announced the completion of the NPCC Northeast Gas/Electric System Study. Initiated in 2023, the study evaluated New York and New England gas supply and gas pipeline constraints for extreme and protracted winter events during the peak heating season, from December through February, for three time periods: 2024/25 (short-term), 2027/28 (mid-term) and 2032/33 (long-term). It shows that if we get an extended (more than three-day) cold snap, those of us living in NY or New England will be in trouble.
“Green” New England Burns NatGas, Coal, Oil to Keep the Lights On --Marcellus Drilling News -- Liberal New England, one of the bluest (Democrat) areas of the country, continues to do the opposite of what they preach. For years, New England states like Massachusetts, Vermont, and Connecticut have blocked new natural gas pipelines that would carry Marcellus molecules from a few hundred miles away into their states, claiming they seek to phase out fossil energy to be more “green.” Yet, as of this morning, 41% of the electricity flowing through New England’s grid comes from fossil fuels—natural gas (33%), oil (7%), and coal (1%). Another 4% comes from burning garbage and wood, which emits as much or more carbon dioxide as fossil fuels! How much electricity is being produced from solar and wind right now in New England? A piddly 9%.
Caught in a Climate Bind, New York State Is Reconsidering Nuclear Power - Just a few years ago, the closure of the Indian Point nuclear power plant was celebrated by a broad coalition of environmentalists, residents and even actors as a victory for public safety and environmental protection.But times may be changing in New York, where rising greenhouse gas emissions are now threatening the state’s ambitious climate goals. State officials are exploring a new generation of nuclear technologies, driven by concerns that natural gas, solar and wind power may not be enough to meet growing energy demand, especially during peak periods. “We need to understand how this [nuclear] technology has advanced, what are the current resources that could be used, and to really be quite careful and objective about looking at the opportunity that it may present,” said Doreen Harris, president and chief executive of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). In September, the agency convened a summit meeting and released a draft blueprint outlining plans to evaluate advanced nuclear technologies, including advanced light water reactors, sodium and molten salt reactors, high-temperature gas reactors and even fusion reactors. NYSERDA also sought input from stakeholders to determine the potential role of next-generation nuclear power in New York and identify opportunities to leverage federal funding programs. New York is far from the only place where advanced nuclear technologies are being considered. Hoping to become a hub for the new technologies, Wyoming is already moving ahead with a small modular reactor project, whileMichigan is considering a potential restart of a closed nuclear power station. In Pennsylvania, Constellation Energy will reopen one of the two reactors at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. The site is infamous for the 1979 meltdown, the worst in the history of the U.S. nuclear power industry. The reopened reactor will power Microsoft’s energy-hungry data centers while the tech company aims to meet its climate goals. It is scheduled to come online in 2028 and operate at least until 2054. While decarbonization is a primary driver of the nuclear resurgence, energy security is another critical factor, said Rama Ponangi, who researches nuclear policies at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP).“New York is highly electricity intensive. There’s a definite need for a clean baseload,” Ponangi said. Nuclear power can help variable energy sources like solar and wind to “do their work,” he added. Globally, nuclear power production is expected to reach a new high next year, surpassing the previous peak in 2021, as energy demands of homes, businesses and data centers grow. This is not the future that many experts predicted for nuclear power, as public support fell in the wake of high-profile accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima, and costs soared in comparison to green sources like wind and solar. In the United States, the number of operating reactors declined from a peak of 112 in 1990 to 92 in 2022. But in New York State, the 2021 closure of Indian Point, which supplied about 25 percent of the electricity used in New York City and the lower Hudson Valley, has led to a surge in greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas-fired power plants. Currently, natural gas comprises 46.2 percent of New York’s energy mix. Nuclear accounts for 21.4 percent of the state’s electricity, while hydroelectric power stands at 21.2 percent. The rise in emissions from burning natural gas is threatening the state’s goal of achieving 70 percent renewably sourced electricity by 2030 and carbon-free electricity by 2040. A state report released in July said New York now may not reach the 70 percent target until 2033.New York has aggressively promoted green energy initiatives, including the development of offshore wind and creating tax credits and rebates to encourage the adoption of solar and wind. However, as electricity demand continues to increase, concerns about grid reliability are also rising, especially during periods when winds are calm or the sun is not out.
China to keep tapping coal to meet its energy security needs --- Cheap coal will continue to provide the ballast for China’s energy security in the coming year, according to the country’s top industry grouping. Output is likely to rise 1.5% in 2025 for a ninth consecutive annual increase, while demand should expand 1%, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association said at a briefing on Wednesday. Persistently high stockpiles should keep the fuel relatively inexpensive, although overseas purchases may moderate from this year’s record level. China has expanded mining capacity so that supply runs ahead of demand, and a repeat of the crippling shortages that struck the economy earlier this decade can be avoided. That’s taken its toll on the industry in terms of accidents, which has affected production in some areas. The top producing province of Shanxi should see output bounce back in 2025 after safety inspections hampered operations last year, said CCTD analyst Feng Huaming. Other coal hubs, including Helongjiang, Xinjiang, Guizhou and Ningxia, are also likely to raise supply to counter shrinking tax revenues from the crisis-wracked property market, he said.The extra supply could shave imports, although producers that rely on Chinese demand in countries like Mongolia and Russia are likely to try and maximize their sales, he said.
5 PUCO Commissioners to Decide the Future of Data Centers in Ohio - Last fall, MDN began tracking the issue of who, ultimately, should pay to build out new electricity sources for data centers (and AI) that increasingly use huge amounts of power (see Big Tech and Big Utility Tangle in Ohio re Data Center Electricity and Big Tech Not Happy with OH Utility Counterproposal re Data Centers). A large utility company in central Ohio, AEP Ohio, is tangling with Big Tech companies, including Amazon, Google, and others, about the commitments those companies should make before it (AEP) will risk investing billions in bringing new power facilities (natgas, solar, wind, nukes, whatever) online. The battle lines are drawn. Each side made a proposal to the state Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO). Now, the five PUCO commissioners will sort through the proposals and pick a side.
Gulfport Energy Well Explodes in Guernsey County, OH – No Injuries --Marcellus Drilling News - Around 5:37 p.m. last Thursday, an explosion and fire at a well pad in Guernsey County, Ohio, resulted in a half-mile evacuation around the site. No extensive damage and no injuries were reported according to a local fire official. According to a statement issued by Gulfport Energy, a storage tank ignited that was located at the Groh pad, a pad drilled in 2012 (14 years ago). The local Antrim fire department (that responded) is located about 1.5 miles from the pad. Salt Fork State Park is 5.7 miles away, which local antis are having a hay day with. Read More“Gulfport Energy Well Explodes in Guernsey County, OH – No Injuries”
Superlight Crude Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio's Utica Shale -Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve been covering the emergence of Ohio Utica oil over the past couple of years (see our Utica oil stories here). Other news outlets are beginning to notice the oily Utica. The experts at RBN Energy published a post on Friday announcing, “Condensate Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale.” Condensate is another word for superlight crude oil. The RBN post analyzes recent oil drilling in Ohio, the potential for more growth through the second half of the 2020s, and the impact of Ohio’s increasing oil output on Midwest midstreamers and refiners
Hit The Lights - Condensate Production Takes Off In Eastern Ohio's Utica Shale -The Marcellus/Utica is a natural-gas-and-NGLs play, right? Almost entirely, yes. But a handful of dogged, innovative E&Ps have been producing fast-rising volumes of superlight crude — better described as condensate — in the Utica Shale’s “volatile oil window” in eastern Ohio. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recently ramped-up drilling-and-completion activity in that swath of the Buckeye State, the potential for more growth through the second half of the 2020s, and the impact of increasing output on Midwest midstreamers and refiners. Few would have guessed it a quarter-century ago, but the Marcellus/Utica region in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia is now one of the world’s most prolific and vital natural gas production areas, with output currently topping 32 Bcf/d and decades of reserves yet to be tapped. The overlapping shale plays generate hundreds of thousands of barrels of NGLs per day that are consumed in the Northeast and Midwest, piped or railed away to other U.S. and Canadian markets — or piped to the Marcus Hook export terminal near Philadelphia and shipped overseas. What’s less well-known is that parts of the Utica play — mostly in a few counties in eastern Ohio — also produce relatively modest amounts of crude oil, almost all of it condensate with an API value (or viscosity) of 55 to 59 degrees. More recently, at least a couple of E&Ps in the Utica have been producing small volumes of “heavy condensate” with an API value of 49 to 52-degrees — still far lighter than West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which has an API of about 40 degrees. (Despite the wide variation in the viscosity of condensate being produced in the Utica today, all condensate barrels in the play are currently fungible — though that may change, as we’ll discuss later.) In the Pre-Shale 2000s, crude oil/condensate production in the three Marcellus/Utica states — the last gasp of output from conventional oil and gas wells drilled years earlier — was flat-lining at de minimis levels. But a sharp rise in drilling-and-completion activity pushed Ohio production alone to a peak of 80 Mb/d in the fall of 2015 and a pre-COVID peak of 87 Mb/d in the summer of 2019 (from only 14 Mb/d in 2012; see Figure 1 below). And, as we’ll get to later, production has been on a tear since the winter of 2021-22, more than doubling from a post-pandemic low of 48 Mb/d to 108 Mb/d in September, the latest EIA data available. The “first-phase” rise in crude/condensate production in Ohio (2013-15) was largely a side-effect of gas-and-NGL-focused drilling and completions. E&Ps invested heavily in developing the acreage they had assembled and working to rapidly increase their gas and NGL production as new gathering pipelines, gas processing plants, de-ethanizers, takeaway pipelines and other supporting infrastructure came online. The mid-decade crash in energy commodity prices forced investment and production gains to pause. But by the late 2010s, a concerted effort was underway to wring more condensate from Utica wells in eastern Ohio. In June 2017, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and privately held Encino Energy formed a joint venture (JV) called Encino Acquisitions Partners (EAP) to pursue oil and gas acquisition opportunities in the Lower 48. (CPPIB initially committed up to US$1 billion to the effort and took a 98% ownership interest in the JV, with Encino Energy committing $25 million and taking 2% and the responsibility for operating the assets EAP acquired.) In July 2018, EAP announced that it had agreed to purchase then-Chesapeake Energy’s Utica Shale assets in Ohio for US$2 billion. (Chesapeake announced in January 2024 that it would acquire Southwestern Energy for $11.5 billion in stock and assumed debt, and on October 1, the deal closed and the newly merged company was named Expand Energy.) The CPPIB/Encino deal, which closed in October 2018, gave the JV — now often referred to as EAP Ohio due to its geographic focus — more than 900,000 net acres (yellow- and red-shaded areas in Figure 2 below) spanning the condensate, liquids-rich and dry-gas windows of the play. While the purchase price was based largely upon the value of the gas and NGL production and reserves, EAP Ohio believed there was significant additional value to be realized by exploiting the crude oil/condensate trapped within the condensate/volatile-oil window, especially within four eastern Ohio counties: Carroll, Columbiana, Guernsey and Harrison (blue oval in Figure 2). In addition to increasing its drilling activity in the four-county area noted above, EAP Ohio has grown its leasehold by nearly 300,000 acres (to a total of about 1.2 million acres) and — most important — worked to perfect its well designs, completion techniques and the like to maximize production. There’s a lot to all this, of course, but the E&P’s now-fine-tuned approach involves, among other things:
- Employing highly efficient multi-well pads — most now with four or five wells per pad — and drilling wells more quickly.
- Drilling longer laterals, with many of the newest now exceeding three miles.
- Optimizing well spacing and the depth of horizontal well placement.
- Using slickwater fracs without gel and deploying more than a ton of frac sand per foot.
Also, in April 2024, CPPIB announced a “follow-on equity investment commitment of US$300 million,” with the first $150 million to be funded that month. The pension board said at the time that the investment “supports EAP’s accelerated development of the Utica oil play,” which it described as “one of the highest-return oil growth plays in North America.” EAP Ohio has said it is now routinely developing wells with initial production (IP) rates of more than 1.5 Mb/d and often exceeding that mark. The E&P’s early start in exploiting the Utica’s volatile oil window in eastern Ohio — and the financial commitments that CPPIB and Encino Energy have made — have resulted in EAP Ohio being far and away the #1 crude oil/condensate producer in the state, with steadily rising output through the first three quarters of 2024. As shown by the bars to the far left in Figure 3 above, EAP Ohio produced about 41 Mb/d of oil/condensate in Q1 2024 (blue bar), followed by 43 Mb/d in Q2 (orange bar) and 46 Mb/d in Q3 (green bar), according to well production data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR). In the July-through-September period, EAP Ohio accounted for 45% of the oil/condensate produced in Ohio, while the next five in the lineup accounted for another 50%. These other producers were #2 Ascent Resources, with Q3 production of about 22 Mb/d; #3 EOG Resources (12 Mb/d), #4 Infinity Natural Resources (10 Mb/d), #5 Expand Energy (4.5 Mb/d, thanks to Southwestern’s involvement in the Utica); and #6 GulfPort Resources (4.2 Mb/d). ODNR data indicates that the vast majority of oil/condensate production by these five E&Ps occurred in the same four counties where EAP Ohio has been active (Carroll, Columbiana, Guernsey and Harrison) plus a considerable amount of activity by several producers in adjoining Noble County. Admittedly, these aren’t Permian- or Bakken-like volumes, and no one is suggesting the Utica Shale will be the next big thing in crude oil production. What at least some E&Ps are saying, however, is that the IP rates of many of the new wells they are drilling and completing in eastern Ohio come close to matching those of the best parts of the Permian, meaning they can be highly profitable. In upcoming blogs in this series, we’ll discuss these five runner-up producers, including EOG Resources, which has been touting its success — and potential for further growth — in Utica condensate production for the past several quarters. We’ll also examine the possibility that two grades of Utica condensate will emerge, each with their own prices: “regular” condensate with an average API of 58 degrees and heavy condensate with an average API of 52 degrees (and a range of 48 to 54 degrees). Further, we’ll look at the various ways Utica condensate is transported to refineries (pipeline, rail, truck and barge) and how refineries (mostly in the Midwest) are using the superlight commodity.
Register Support for M-U Hydrogen Hub at Scoping Hearing or Online -Marcellus Drilling News - Last August, MDN told you that the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2) officially received its first $30 million from the Bidenistas (see EQT & Others Enter “Phase 1” of Hydrogen Hub; DOE Cuts $30M Check). ARCH2 is getting $925 million from a $7 billion pot. ARCH2, one of seven projects to win approval, was selected specifically because it will use Marcellus/Utica shale gas as the feedstock to create hydrogen (so-called “blue” hydrogen). The project got an official HQ last year at the West Virginia University (WVU) Innovation Corp. center in Morgantown, West Virginia (see ARCH2 Hydrogen Hub Gets an Official Headquarters in Morgantown, WV). Residents from WV, PA, and OH who want to register their concerns, opposition, or (most importantly) support for ARCH2 and the projects that are part of the plan can do so either at an online scoping hearing on Jan. 16 or by submitting comments via email (or in writing) by Mar. 3.
28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 2 – 8 -- Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Dec 2 – 8, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica bounced back nicely. There were 28 new permits issued last week, more than doubling the 12 issued the week before (and matching the 28 issued three weeks ago). The Keystone State (PA) issued 18 new permits, with eight going to EQT spread across three counties: Jefferson, Lycoming, and Washington. Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) received four permits, all of them in northeastern PA’s Wyoming County. CNX Resource scooped up two permits, both in Westmoreland County. The final four permits were singles issued to Blackhill Energy (Bradford County), XPR Resources (Centre County), Inflection Energy (Lycoming County), and Olympus Energy (Allegheny County). ALLEGHENY COUNTY | ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BLACKHILL ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CENTRE COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | INFLECTION ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY |WYOMING COUNTY (PA) | XPR RESOURCES
No Change in M-U, Nat’l Baker Hughes Rig Counts 2nd Week in a Row - Marcellus Drilling News - The venerable Baker Hughes national rig count was 589 active rigs last week—which is unchanged FIVE weeks in a row. Very unusual. The Marcellus/Utica rig count was a combined 34 last week—the same number for FOUR weeks in a row. The national count remains rangebound between 581 and 589 since June 2024 (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). The M-U remained static last week, with PA at 15 rigs, OH at 9 rigs, and WV at 10 rigs.
DEP Did Over 107,000 Inspections, Found 35,237 Violations, Responded To 410 Emergencies In 2024 To Protect PA's Environment, Public Safety -- On January 6, the Department of Environmental Protection reported its staff conducted over 107,000 inspections to protect Pennsylvanians’ constitutional right to clean air, pure water, and a healthy and safe environment. During those inspections, DEP identified 35,237 violations, and resolved 32,699 of them, including some from 2023.DEP also responded to 410 environmental emergencies, like spills from traffic accidents to chemical fires. The emergencies included a sewage pipeline break in Lycoming County, multiple abandoned mine subsidence incidents in Luzerne County, and helping to coordinate disaster responses during Tropical Storm Debby. After such emergencies, DEP staff return to the site to assess and implement necessary cleanup measures, such as removing contaminated soil or filling an abandoned mine subsidence with concrete to make it more stable(opens in a new tab).DEP inspections include both scheduled and unscheduled on-site visits to permitted facilities, as well as document reviews to verify compliance with environmental laws and regulations. These inspections—whether on-site or operational—ensure that air emissions stay within air quality standards, drinking water remains safe, and rivers and streams are protected from pollution. DEP’s efforts to hold polluters accountable also included investing civil penalties into Pennsylvania communities. In Beaver County, DEP, and the Beaver County Environmental Mitigation Fund, awarded more than $4.7 million to fund community projects in areas affected by the Shell petrochemical facility. In Washington County, DEP secured more than $1.6 million from legacy pollution from the site of a former zinc smelter, which will fund community projects once the final cleanup of the site is complete. Click Here for DEP's announcement.DEP’s Oil and Gas Program conducted over 47,736 inspections during 2024-- 24,216 inspections of unconventional shale gas facilities, 17,347 conventional oil and gas wells and 6,173 site and client inspections, through December 27, 2024.DEP issued 7,296 violations to conventional oil and gas well owners, far exceeding the 6,860 violations issued in 2023, 5,416 violations issued in 2022 and 4,514 violations in 2021 [Read more here].DEP also issued 495 compliance orders, consent agreements and took other enforcement actions against conventional operators.The most frequent violation continues to be abandoning and not plugging conventional wells. DEP issued 850 violations for conventional well abandonment through December 20 in 2024. DEP issued 512 violations for abandoned wells in 2023.DEP has only seen an increase in noncompliance by the conventional oil and gas industry, confirming yet again its conclusion that the conventional industry’s culture of non-compliance is an “acceptable norm.” Read more here. DEP issued 1,129 violations to unconventional shale gas well owners and issued 131 compliance orders, consent agreements and other enforcement actions.DEP took 129 enforcement actions against shale gas companies in 2023. DEP issued 42 violations to 12 shale gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells in 2024, through December 21, sometimes dating back 42 months. Read more here.In 2023, DEP issued or continued 20 violations to 10 shale gas well owners for abandoned and not plugging their wells. Read more here.Visit DEP’s Oil & Gas Compliance Reporting Database and Inspection Reports Viewer webpages to search their compliance records by date and owner.
Diversified Buys Another 300 Wells Plus Pipelines in WV & Va. - Marcellus Drilling News - Diversified Energy, with major assets in the Marcellus/Utica region (also assets in other regions, too), owns approximately 8 million acres of leases with 67,000 (mostly) conventional oil and gas wells. The company’s business model is to buy lower-producing wells on the cheap and find ways to make them more productive. Earlier today, the company announced another deal to buy more assets in the Appalachian region.’
MVP Runs Full, Gives Appalachia Natural Gas Prices More Exposure to Winter Demand Spikes -- The 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) is running at capacity for the first time since it came online in June, allowing more Appalachian Basin natural gas to reach the Southeast and price closer to downstream premiums. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Transco Zone 5, St. 165 daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility compared to MVP natural gas deliveries to the Transco, Cherrystone interconnect. The 303-mile pipeline from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia has provided one of the few new linkages out of the Appalachian Basin. Underscoring the difficulty in adding egress out of the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale formations, it took an act of Congress to finish the pipeline. This week, more than 10 years after the project first went to federal regulators for approval, the full impact of its completion finally could be seen in gas flows.
CO2 from Gas-Fired Plants Record High, Yet Overall Emissions Down --Marcellus Drilling News -- -- For the first time, over 1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) was discharged from U.S. gas-fired power plants in a single year in 2024. It marks a new pollution threshold for the world’s largest gas producer and consumer of natural gas. Yet, because natgas has replaced coal and other higher-polluting sources of electric power, U.S. power emissions from all fossil fuels were up only 0.5% in 2024 from 2023, to 1.64 billion tons. And get this: Overall emissions from all sources were down 19% last year versus 2015. Using natural gas to produce electricity makes the country “greener,” something the media ignores.
“Green” New England Burns NatGas, Coal, Oil to Keep the Lights On --Marcellus Drilling News -- Liberal New England, one of the bluest (Democrat) areas of the country, continues to do the opposite of what they preach. For years, New England states like Massachusetts, Vermont, and Connecticut have blocked new natural gas pipelines that would carry Marcellus molecules from a few hundred miles away into their states, claiming they seek to phase out fossil energy to be more “green.” Yet, as of this morning, 41% of the electricity flowing through New England’s grid comes from fossil fuels—natural gas (33%), oil (7%), and coal (1%). Another 4% comes from burning garbage and wood, which emits as much or more carbon dioxide as fossil fuels! How much electricity is being produced from solar and wind right now in New England? A piddly 9%.
AccuWeather Says Cold Blast in Northeast Could Stop M-U Drilling - AccuWeather meteorologists who specialize in predicting the weather for the natural gas industry issued a statement to Rigzone saying several Arctic blasts will send waves of bitterly cold air across much of the eastern United States starting last weekend. The meteorologists said the “deep freeze could impact natural gas production and operations in the Northeast.” They specifically mentioned the Marcellus Shale by name, stating new shale drilling and flows from wells to pipelines “could be impacted by bitterly cold air.”
AccuWeather Says Deep Freeze Could Impact Northeast Natural Gas Production AccuWeather expert meteorologists say several Arctic blasts will send waves of bitterly cold air across much of the eastern United States starting this weekend. That’s what a media advisory sent to Rigzone by the AccuWeather team this week stated, adding that the “deep freeze could impact natural gas production and operations in the Northeast”. “The blasts of cold air are expected to trigger a surge in heating demand, leading to higher energy and utility bills,” the advisory warned. In the advisory, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said, “we expect Marcellus Shale natural gas production areas in the Northeast could be impacted by bitterly cold air”. “This deep freeze could slow or even stop drilling and operations at times. The demand for natural gas and heating will likely surge across the eastern half of the country starting this weekend, as temperatures plummet across the Northeast, Midwest, and much of the Southeast,” Reppert added. “We also expect parts of Europe to be impacted by very cold air later this week and possibly into next week, which could increase the demand for natural gas exports,” he continued. “The combination of cold weather impacts and heating demand in the United States and Europe will likely cause natural gas prices to remain elevated into next week,” Reppert went on to note. The media advisory stated that AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the waves of cold air could lead to the coldest January in the United States as a whole since 2011. “Should the cold wave evolve to its full potential, temperature departures could plunge to 30 to 40 degrees below the historical average from the Midwest to the interior Southeast for several days during the first to second full week of January,” the advisory warned. In the advisory, AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said, “in the Southeast (Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida), this January could end up being the coldest since January 2018, which was 4.3 degrees below the historical average”. “In an extreme scenario where the cold lingers past the middle of January, January 2025 could be the coldest since January 2014 in this region, which was six degrees lower than the historical average,” he added. “The last two Januarys in the Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan) have been well above the historical average spanning 1991-2020. January 2023 was 6.3 degrees above and January 2024 was 4.2 degrees above,” he continued. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says waves of extreme cold could send AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures tumbling to 10-20 degrees across parts of northern Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast late next week, the advisory stated. “Pastelok says AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures could plummet to -30 degrees in parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest late next week,” the advisory warned. Pastelok noted in the advisory that “the key here is that the Arctic outbreak will involve many days and not just be a quick one to three day event”. “A trainload of Arctic high-pressure areas will move southward into the U.S. from the northern Plains to the Southeast states with the pattern,” he warned.
BHE’s Eastern Gas Pipe Proposes Expansion to Flow M-U Gas to D.C. --Marcellus Drilling News -- It’s always a red-letter day here at MDN HQ when we happen across a new pipeline project in the Marcellus/Utica region. Today is one of those days! Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage, a subsidiary of billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), filed a new project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in December to beef up three existing compressor stations in Centre County, Clinton County, and Franklin County in Pennsylvania, and one existing compressor station in Loudoun County, Virginia, with the aim of flowing more Marcellus molecules to the Washington, D.C. area.
DC Circuit Sides with FERC Approval of 24-Mile Gas Pipe in Indiana --Marcellus Drilling News -- In June 2021, MDN told you about CenterPoint Energy, a power generator looking to shutter portions of its coal-fired generation fleet and build two natural gas combustion turbines in Indiana (see Will New 460 MW Gas-Fired Plant in Indiana Get Approved?). The two units would provide a combined 460 megawatts (MW) of electricity as a backup to CenterPoint’s wind, solar, and battery storage. Antis tried to strangle the project by challenging a 24-mile pipeline that would feed it (see Antis Attack Pipe Expansion to Feed NatGas to Indiana Power Plants). Finally, after nearly four years and multiple appeals, a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals issued a decision yesterday that sided with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in an appeal of the agency’s decision approving the pipeline. In other words, FERC was correct to approve it, and now (finally) the project can go forward.
National Grid, Con Edison urge FERC to adopt gas pipeline reliability requirements The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should adopt reliability-related requirements for gas pipeline operators to ensure fuel supplies during cold weather, according to National Grid USA and affiliated utilities Consolidated Edison Co. of New York and Orange and Rockland Utilities.In the wake of power outages in the Southeast and the near collapse of New York City’s gas system during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, voluntary efforts to bolster gas pipeline reliability are inadequate, the utilities said in two separate filings on Friday at FERC.The filings were in response to a gas-electric coordination meeting held in November by the Federal-State Current Issues Collaborative between FERC and the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners.National Grid called for FERC to use its authority under the Natural Gas Act to require pipeline reliability reporting, coupled with enforcement mechanisms, and pipeline tariff reforms.“Such data reporting would enable the commission to gain a clearer picture into pipeline reliability and identify any problematic trends in the quality of pipeline service,” National Grid said. “At that point, the commission could consider using its ratemaking, audit, and civil penalty authority preemptively to address such identified concerns before they result in service curtailments.”On pipeline tariff reforms, FERC should develop tougher provisions forforce majeure events — an unforeseen occurence that prevents a contract from being fulfilled — reservation charge crediting, operational flow orders, scheduling and confirmation enhancements, improved real-time coordination, and limits on changes to nomination rankings, National Grid said.FERC should support efforts in New England and New York to create financial incentives for gas-fired generators to enter into winter contracts for imported liquefied natural gas supplies, or other long-term firm contracts with suppliers and pipelines, National Grid said. Con Edison and O&R said they were encouraged by recent efforts such as North American Energy Standard Board’s Gas-Electric Harmonization report, a FERC and North American Electric Reliability Corp. Winter Storm Elliott report and NARUC’s Gas-Electric Alignment for Reliability efforts. “Further, since Winter Storm Elliott, we have observed noticeable improvements in winter weather operations with our upstream pipeline and suppliers, including earlier information-sharing with pipeline customers and enhancements by pipelines to address real-time operational risk,” the utilities said. However, “efforts to address the root of the problem — gas system performance during cold weather — have stalled,” they said.
Cheniere Produces First LNG in CCL Stage 3 - Cheniere Energy, Inc. has produced the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the first train of the company’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project (CCL Stage 3). Cheniere said in a news release that the commissioning process continues to progress and that it expects substantial completion of Train 1 to be achieved at the end of the first quarter of 2025, over six months ahead of the guaranteed completion date. Upon substantial completion, Bechtel Energy, Inc. will transfer the care, custody and control of the completed train to Cheniere, according to the release. CCL Stage 3 consists of seven midscale trains, with an expected total production capacity of over 10 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG. Upon the substantial completion of all seven trains of CCL Stage 3, the expected total production capacity of the Corpus Christi liquefaction facility will be over 25 mtpa of LNG, Cheniere said. Full notice to proceed on CCL Stage 3 was issued to Bechtel by Cheniere in June 2022. In October 2024, Cheniere set a voluntary, measurement-informed Scope 1 annual methane intensity target for its liquefaction facilities. The Scope 1 methane target leverages data from its multi-scale emissions measurement and mitigation programs. The methane target is consistent with the requirements to achieve Gold Standard under Cheniere’s membership in the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Oil & Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0, according to an earlier statement from the company. Cheniere said it aims to consistently maintain a Scope 1 annual methane emissions intensity of 0.03 percent per metric ton of LNG produced across its two U.S. Gulf Coast liquefaction facilities by 2027. The company’s methane target was guided by its Quantification, Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (QMRV) projects, which included data from approximately 50 aerial measurements of Cheniere’s operations at its liquefaction facilities performed over a 16-month period. “Cheniere’s LNG plays a critical role in meeting the world’s growing need for secure and reliable energy, while supporting the transition to a lower-carbon future,” Cheniere President and CEO Jack Fusco said. “Our methane emissions intensity target reflects our commitment to leverage measurement-informed emissions data to improve the climate competitiveness of our LNG and ensure the long-term resilience of our business”. In the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024, Cheniere generated revenues of approximately $3.8 billion and $11.3 billion, as well as net income of approximately $0.9 billion and $2.3 billion, according to its most recent earnings release. Cheniere’s net income decreased approximately $808 million year-over-year in the third quarter. The decreases were primarily attributable to "unfavorable variances related to changes in fair value of our derivative instruments,” the company said. The decreases were partially offset by lower provisions for income tax, as well as lower net income attributable to non-controlling interests.
Exports From New LNG Terminal Begin as U.S. Cements Position as Market Leader - Exports from America's eighth liquefied natural gas facility began this week, highlighted by an LNG carrier departing for Europe. This reinforces the US' position as the world's leading LNG exporter and provides tailwinds for President-elect Donald Trump as he urges Europe to increase US energy product purchases in his upcoming second term. Venture Global, one of the largest US LNG developers, shipped its inaugural cargo of LNG from its Plaquemines export facility in Louisiana via a company-owned carrier named "Venture Bayou."According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, the newly built carrier is en route to deliver the first LNG cargo from Plaquemines to the German utility company EnBW. The shipment is expected to arrive in early January. Venture Global wrote in a statement cited by Bloomberg that the Plaquemines will "produce and export LNG while construction and commissioning continue for the remainder of the project's 36 trains and associated facilities." Plaquemines has several long-term customers, including European utility Electricite de France SA, Polish energy firm Orlen SA, China's Sinopec and Cnooc Ltd., and Shell plc.When the Plaquemines LNG facility becomes fully operational, expected in late 2025 or early 2026 according to Venture Global's project timeline, it will rank among the world's largest LNG export plants, further securing the US' position as the world's top LNG exporter. This development is pivotal, as US LNG has been offered to Brussels as a replacement for Russian piped NatGas.Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel wrote in a statement: "In just five years, Venture Global has built, produced and launched exports from two large-scale LNG projects which has never been done before in the history of the industry."The potential LNG export boom will likely please President-elect Trump, who recently threatened Europe with tariffs unless it increased its purchase of US energy products next year. Also, Venture Global has filed for an initial public offering, with JPMorgan analysts estimating the enterprise value is around $100 billion.In response to Trump's comments about the US-EU LNG trade, Goldman analysts said US LNG could "theoretically" replace piped Russian NatGas to the EU.
U.S. Natural Gas Demand Poised for Growth in 2025 as LNG Buildout Ramps Up - After a year highlighted by construction delays and sluggish regulatory processes, new U.S. LNG export capacity is coming online in 2025, bringing with it added natural gas demand on the Gulf Coast. Graph showing developing LNG projects along the Gulf Coast through 2030. But, whether that new demand translates to higher prices or proves slower to emerge largely depends on how LNG developers navigate persistent industry challenges as projects ramp up toward commercial operations. NGI’s Patrick Rau, senior vice president of research and analysis, said Plaquemines LNG and incremental demand from Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 project could boost feed gas demand by 3 Bcf/d by the end of 2025.
U.S. LNG ‘Golden Era’ Expected to Last Longer as Trump Takes Office - - President Trump’s second term is poised to accelerate the U.S. LNG buildout and expand global trade of the super-chilled fuel at a time when energy flows have dramatically shifted and demand is also set to surge. Charts showing Canada, Mexico and U.S. LNG export projects under development and their capacity. “We’re in the middle of a golden age for U.S. LNG. I think there’s clearly interest in developing more capacity,” said Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners. “People have signed with projects that haven’t reached a final investment decision (FID), that’s an expression of interest. “I think the Trump administration is going to do whatever it can to encourage that,” he told NGI.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 10% as Winter Storms Hit Output and Demand (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures soared about 10% to a one-week high in volatile trade on Monday as winter storms battered the eastern half of the country, causing output to decline as some oil and gas wells and pipes froze. More than 323,000 homes and businesses were without power from Missouri to Virginia Monday afternoon. That was down from a total of more than 409,000 customers affected by the storm. In addition to the winter storms, energy traders said gas prices also gained support from near-record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 31.8 cents, or 9.5%, to settle at $3.672 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since Dec. 30. With big price swings in recent weeks, Monday's gain was only the biggest daily percentage increase since prices jumped by 12.0% on Dec. 30. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in January, up from 103.8 Bcf/d in December. That compares with a record 105.3 Bcf/d in December 2023. But since output hit a 10-month high of 106.0 Bcf/d on Dec. 30, supplies were on track to drop by around 3.4 Bcf/d to a preliminary six-week low of 102.6 Bcf/d on Monday, due mostly to freezing wells and pipes, known in the energy industry as freeze-offs. Those output declines from freeze-offs so far this winter were much smaller than in recent years. But with the coldest weather still to come, analysts said freeze-off declines will likely increase in coming days. In past winters, freeze-offs slashed gas output by around 16.5 Bcf/d from Jan. 8-16 in 2024, 19.4 Bcf/d from Dec. 21-24 in 2022 and 20.4 Bcf/d from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Jan. 21 with the coldest days expected later this week. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would ease from 147.0 Bcf/d this week to 146.7 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. On a daily basis, LSEG projected total gas use could reach 155.5 Bcf/d on Jan. 7, falling well short of the daily record of 168.4 Bcf/d on Jan. 16, 2024 during another brutal winter freeze. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 Bcf/d so far in January, up from 14.4 Bcf/d in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. Gas was trading around $14 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Surge 6% on Freezing Wells, Northeast Price Spike (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% in another volatile day of trade on Wednesday on forecasts for more heating demand than previously expected and as freezing wells cut output. Extreme cold in the Northeast, meanwhile, boosted spot gas prices to their highest since January 2024. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20.2 cents, or 5.9%, to settle at $3.651 per million British thermal units. The market has experienced fierce price swings over the past couple of weeks with nine of the past 10 trading days moving up or down by more than 5%. That compares with an average daily price move of around 3.7% in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 40 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 3. Analysts noted that withdrawal was small due to mild weather during the New Year's holiday week. It was smaller than the 53-Bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 104 Bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 93 Bcf for this time of year. EIA released the storage report one day early due to a National Day of Mourning for former U.S. President Jimmy Carter on Thursday. Analysts projected the next three storage reports for the weeks ended Jan. 10, 17 and 24 could show utilities pulling over 200 bcf of gas out of storage each week due to extreme cold expected to last until at least late January. If correct, that could wipe out the current surplus of gas in storage, which stands at 7% over the five-year average, by the end of January. In the spot market, extreme cold in the Northeast boosted next-day gas prices to their highest since January 2024 at the Eastern Gas hub in Pennsylvania and in New York.
US natgas prices soar 8% to two-year high on colder forecasts, record LNG feedgas — U.S. natural gas futures soared about 8% to a two-year high on Friday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures NG1! for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.8 cents, or 7.8%, to settle at $3.989 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Jan. 4, 2023. That topped the front-month's near two-year closing high of $3.946 from a couple of weeks ago on Dec. 24. But in such a volatile market, that gain was only the biggest daily percentage increase since Jan. 6 when prices jumped over 9%. Ten of the last 12 trading days saw moves up or down of over 5%. That compares with an average daily price move of around 3.7% in calendar 2024. For the week, the front-month was up about 19%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since September, after sliding about 11% over the past two weeks. Analysts projected the next three storage reports for the weeks ending Jan. 10, 17 and 24 could each show utilities pulling over 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Those storage withdrawals could wipe out the current surplus of gas in storage, which stands near 7% over the five-year average, by the end of January. That would be the first time stockpiles would fall below the five-year average since January 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 102.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from 103.8 bcfd in December. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Since daily output hit a 10-month high of 106.0 bcfd on Dec. 30, supplies were on track to drop by around 5.9 bcfd to a preliminary eight-week low of 100.1 bcfd on Friday. The amount of freeze-offs, however, was lower than the 6.2 bcfd projected on Thursday. Cold weather output declines so far this year have been much smaller than previous winters. Freeze-offs cut gas output by around 16.5 bcfd from Jan. 8-16 in 2024, 19.4 bcfd from Dec. 21-24 in 2022, and 20.4 bcfd from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Jan. 25, with the coldest days still to come. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 148.3 bcfd this week to 149.3 bcfd next week before easing to 147.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use so far this winter peaked at 158.8 bcfd on Jan. 8 and would reach 159.0 bcfd on Jan. 21, which would fall short of the daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to climb from 15.3 bcfd on Thursday to a preliminary 15.5 bcfd on Friday as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines plant under construction in Texas rise to a record 0.8 bcfd. That total feedgas would top the current daily record of 15.4 bcfd on Jan 6.
U.S. Natural Gas Markets (and Prices) Now Linked with Rest of World -Marcellus Drilling News --- According to CME Group, the worldwide natural gas market has evolved, and trading activity has grown in the past few years. The trading volume of Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) futures during non-U.S. hours has more than doubled from a couple of years ago. We are truly interconnected worldwide. However, there are implications and consequences to being interconnected. Namely, the U.S. gas market is less shielded from global events due to the global linkage created by our LNG exports. It becomes imperative for U.S. gas traders to understand and monitor what’s happening around the globe and how world events may cause volatility. Traders need to monitor for sudden shifts in global demand-and-supply balance, changes in weather patterns, and geopolitical risk.
Joe Biden blocks some new offshore drilling ahead of Donald Trump takeover - President Biden has blocked new offshore drilling for oil and gas in several parts of the country about two weeks before President-elect Trump takes office. Biden has announced he’ll block new drilling off the entire East Coast, as well as California, Oregon and Washington state. The president’s move also blocks some drilling off Alaska’s coast in portions of the Northern Bering Sea and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. “Drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs. It is not worth the risks,” Biden said in a statement. “As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren,” he added. Biden’s effort does not target areas that are major hubs for fossil fuel development — the vast majority of U.S. offshore oil and gas production comes from the central and western Gulf of Mexico, which is unaffected by Monday’s announcement. According to the Interior Department, industry activity in the area Biden blocked off has historically been “very low,” and there is no active oil and gas exploration or production in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the effort could be an effort to prevent expansions from taking place under President-elect Trump, who has promised to promote domestic energy production and “drill baby drill.” “This is a disgraceful decision designed to exact political revenge on the American people who gave President Trump a mandate to increase drilling and lower gas prices,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement Monday. “Rest assured, Joe Biden will fail, and we will drill, baby, drill.” Oil industry groups also blasted the decision, which represents the largest area ever formally taken off the table for drilling by a president. “American voters sent a clear message in support of domestic energy development, and yet the current administration is using its final days in office to cement a record of doing everything possible to restrict it,” said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, an oil and gas lobbying group. “We urge policymakers to use every tool at their disposal to reverse this politically motivated decision and restore a pro-American energy approach to federal leasing,” Sommers added. While Trump could try to reverse Biden’s move to protect more than 625 million acres, it’s not clear whether he would be successful. During his first term, Trump tried to undo a similar move to protect certain areas from drilling issued under former President Obama, but was stopped by a judge, who ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. While Trump was largely supportive of oil and gas during his first term, he also blocked drilling off the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
President-elect Trump pledges to unban oil drilling after Biden move --President-elect Trump blasted President Biden’s decision to block oil drilling across large swaths of the U.S.’s coastlines, saying he will “unban it.” “It’s ridiculous; I’ll unban it immediately,” Trump said during an interview Monday with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. However, it’s not totally clear whether he’ll be able to do so. During his previous term, Trump tried to reinstate drilling in areas blocked off by former President Obama, but he was blocked from doing so in court. In 2019, a judge ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. Nevertheless, in the interview with Hewitt, Trump asserted he would be able to reverse Biden’s action. “I have the right to unban it immediately,” he said. “When I see somebody saying he’s going to ban 625 million acres, he doesn’t know what that is. He doesn’t even know what 625 million acres would look like, and we can’t let that happen to our country,” Trump added. Biden’s move to ban new drilling in more than 625 million acres represents the largest-ever area where a president has blocked drilling. However, Biden’s move applies to areas that have low, if any, levels of offshore drilling. It did not apply to the central and western Gulf of Mexico where most U.S. offshore drilling occurs.
What to know about Biden’s new offshore drilling restrictions - President Biden’s move to bar drilling across the U.S.’s East and West coasts, while splashy, may not have significant climate or energy impacts in the years ahead. Because very little oil and gas is drilled in these places to begin with, the move is mostly symbolic — at least in the near term. On Monday, Biden barred new drilling off the East and West coasts of the U.S. and in a portion of Alaska and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The move leaves the central and western Gulf of Mexico in play. The action received significant political attention, garnering praise from environmentalists and being decried by industry and Republicans. But its actual effects are expected to be limited because very little offshore drilling actually occurs outside the Gulf. “I think the overall impact of the drilling ban on future U.S. production levels will be rather small,” said Andrew Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, in an email. He noted the Gulf of Mexico is the area “where oil producers want to drill since it is most likely to contain commercially recoverable amounts of oil and natural gas.” Meanwhile, there is currently no drilling off the Atlantic Coast and some sparse drilling off the Pacific Coast. Lipow said he believes the industry has little interest in drilling off the coast of California due to its “adversarial relationship with the oil industry” and noted that the hurdles for the East Coast are even higher. “Even if the industry decided to drill in that area today, they must contend with building pipeline and receiving infrastructure to on shore facilities in states that already have significant local opposition,” he wrote. In the near-term, the government does not have any plans to sell the rights to drill anywhere except for the Gulf. While these plans are likely to be revised by Trump, it’s not clear whether he would plan to open up the areas blocked by Biden in the immediate future, or whether the industry has an appetite to drill there. “The industry’s near-term focus has been the Gulf of Mexico,” said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, which represents both offshore oil and gas and offshore wind companies. “We’ve got a lot of major projects coming online. We still have some running room for the Gulf of Mexico to discover more resources and bring more oil and gas online,” he said. However, Milito said he opposes Biden’s move because in the long term, “you’ve got to find new places to find and discover oil and gas.” “The Pacific is understood to contain massive amounts of oil,” he said. “We just want to make sure that we’re not taking options off the table for the long term.” For his part, Trump has condemned the move, vowing to “unban it immediately.” However, any bid to do so could face legal hurdles. During his previous term, Trump tried to resume drilling in areas blocked off by former President Obama, but he was prevented from doing so in court. In 2019, a judge ruled the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act gives presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not to reinstate it. But it’s not clear whether any future court decisions will follow the same logic, with Trump and his allies saying the incoming president does have the right to reverse Biden. “We don’t see any reason why the president shouldn’t have the authority to amend or rescind these types of decisions,” Milito said.
API issues statement opposing further restrictions on US offshore E&P -The American Petroleum Institute (API) has released the following statement from President and CEO Mike Sommers on reports that the Biden administration will move to ban new oil and natural gas activity across millions of acres of federal waters:“American voters sent a clear message in support of domestic energy development, and yet the current administration is using its final days in office to cement a record of doing everything possible to restrict it. Congress and the incoming administration should fully leverage the nation’s vast offshore resources as a critical source of affordable energy, government revenue and stability around the world. We urge policymakers to use every tool at their disposal to reverse this politically motivated decision and restore a pro-American energy approach to federal leasing.”According to the US Energy Information Administration, US offshore production accounts for 14% of total US crude oil production, or nearly two million barrels of oil per day. Robust offshore oil and natural gas development could generate over $8 billion in additional government revenue by 2040, the API noted. The API also said that: “Reversing this politically-motivated decision should be a top priority for Congress.” In addition, the trade association is also urging the incoming administration to draft a new five-year offshore leasing program, “changing course from the weakest offshore program in history under the Biden administration.”
Oil companies pay record $5.6M settlement after FTC alleges illegal coordination -- Three oil companies will pay a record penalty to settle allegations that they illegally coordinated before a merger between them was complete, the federal government announced on Tuesday.The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said that companies XCL Resources Holdings, Verdun Oil Company II and EP Energy LLC (EP) will pay a record $5.6 million in the civil case. A legal complaint made public Tuesday said that Verdun, which was under common management with XCL at the time, purchased EP. It says that under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust act, the companies needed to abide by a waiting period before transferring any control from one business to another — but that they transferred “significant operational control” of EP to XCL and Verdun during this period.It particularly accused XCL of halting EP’s oil development activities “at a time when the United States was experiencing significant supply shortages and spiking crude oil prices.”The Hill has attempted to reach the companies for comment.As oil and gasoline prices spiked in 2021 and 2022 amid COVID-related economic factors and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Democrats frequently accused the energy industry of price gouging. The industry has denied such allegations, and largely, analysts attributed price jumps to economic factors.The FTC, meanwhile, has in recent years given the oil and gas industry significant scrutiny,accusing one firm of colluding with foreign producers and also probing proposed mergers.President-elect Trump, meanwhile, has said he would loosen FTC scrutiny of the oil industry,The Washington Post reported earlier this year.
Exxon predicts a $700 million hit to profit due to lower oil prices - Exxon Mobil Corp. said earnings took a hit from lower crude prices and narrowing refining margins during the final three months of 2024. Oil prices lowered earnings at Exxon’s production division by about $700 million while refining margins reduced profit by a further $500 million compared with the third quarter, Exxon said in a statement Tuesday. Natural gas prices provided a lift of about $200 million while chemical margins shrank. Exxon’s guidance doesn’t take into account operational performance or changes in production levels but is a sign that the fourth quarter was a tough one for Big Oil. Investors are concerned about the Chinese economy amid ample global crude supplies. Exxon indicated it will report a $400 million gain from fourth-quarter asset sales, along with charges of the same amount.
Enbridge pipeline oil spill near Madison prompts calls for disclosure -A spill of over 1,600 barrels of crude oil near Dane County went undisclosed to the public for a month, a delay caused partly by Wisconsin's limited rules for notification.The Enbridge pipeline leak in November highlights a gap in transparency that environmental groups say the state can and should close. “I just think anytime we're dealing with an oil spill in a place like Wisconsin, with so many water bodies — we have 10,000 rivers, lakes and streams — and with a third of the state relying on groundwater as their source of drinking water, if there's a spill, tell the public immediately,” said Rob Lee, a staff attorney for Midwest Environmental Advocates. “Just announce it. It doesn't matter if it's two tablespoons or two gallons or 2 million, right? Tell people.”The Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge reported a spill near the Jefferson County town of Oakland to state and federal regulators on Nov. 11. The matter was publicized only after Enbridge filed a report with the federal government a month later outlining the full details of the spill.Initially the spill was considered to be relatively small — 126 gallons of oil, or about the same size as a large household aquarium tank.But in mid-December, the company estimated the spill involved nearly 70,000 gallons of oil, the equivalent of 1,650 barrels. A report filed on Dec. 11 with the federal agency overseeing interstate pipelines indicated the spill was entirely contained on Enbridge property.The federal report said Enbridge personnel initially discovered a malfunctioning flange gasket was causing oil to leak. After repairs were made, a follow-up investigation determined the spill was much more widespread than initially thought.Enbridge spokesperson Juli Kellner said the company immediately reported the spill as required and briskly commenced cleanup with supervision from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.“Local government and state officials also visited the site and expressed no elevated concerns as the release and the associated impacts were contained to Enbridge property,” Kellner said. “We remain in contact with local elected officials.”A half-dozen adjacent landowners were informed about the spill on Dec. 11 and Dec. 12, according to documents filed with the DNR as part of the cleanup process. Officials in the town of Oakland said they were informed about the extent of the spill on Dec. 13.Lisa Moen, administrator in Cambridge, which is 4 miles from the spill site, told the Cap Times in an email that Enbridge never contacted her city's government about the spill.A contractor helping Enbridge with cleanup filed a report to the DNR on Dec. 29 that said the spill affected groundwater but only on company land. Tests have shown no elevated chemical levels in the water of a half-dozen local landowners, according to documents Enbridge filed with the DNR. The town of Oakland and Jefferson County Health Department have asked residents to monitor their water for any discoloration and odor. The DNR also reported there does not yet appear to be any oil in a nearby creek or in nearby Lake Ripley, though the agency recommended Enbridge to continue to monitor the waterway.The incident is smaller than a 2007 spill near Exeland, in northwestern Wisconsin, the largest such event in state history. That incident occurred when an Enbridge crew mistakenly ruptured an existing pipeline while installing a new one.
Trump Aims to Revive 1,200-Mile Keystone XL Pipeline Despite Major Challenges --Donald Trump plans to restart the Keystone XL pipeline, a stalled project designed to transport oil from Canada to Nebraska, according to Straight Arrow News. Originally proposed by Canadian firm TC Energy in 2010, the project faced repeated policy shifts: rejected under President Obama in 2015, approved by Trump in 2017, and canceled again by President Biden in 2021. The pipeline, designed to transport oil from Alberta to Nebraska, is no longer in development. TC Energy abandoned the project in 2021 and dismantled existing infrastructure. According to a recent Politico report citing an anonymous source, Trump aims to prioritize the pipeline's revival early in his presidency, framing it as a strategic move to strengthen his pro-fossil-fuel agenda and overturn Biden's policies. However, restarting the project faces considerable obstacles. Any new effort would require fresh permits and a committed company to take on construction, according to Straight Arrow News. The original permits are invalid, and interest might be low due to robust oil production in both the U.S. and Canada. Furthermore, Canada has developed alternative export routes, reducing the immediate need for additional pipeline infrastructure.
After a Long Slide, Alaska's Crude Oil Production Appears Primed for Rebound - Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil production has been sliding for years — decades really — but that is poised to change in the second half of the 2020s. Two long-planned ANS projects — Pikka and Willow — are slated to start up in 2026 and 2029, respectively. By the early 2030s, these and other projects in the works could return North Slope production to levels not seen since the turn of the century. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss these projects and our new, long-term forecast for ANS oil production — a topic in our upcoming Future of Fuels report. Let’s start with the main source of Alaska’s crude oil production: Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s North Slope. As we discussed in Keep Holding On, more than a half-century ago the 49th state was seen as the next big thing for U.S. oil. Massive oil deposits were discovered at Prudhoe Bay in the late 1960s –– and that promise soon became reality. With the completion of the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez, AK, in 1977, ANS production took off like a rocket and by 1988 it exceeded 2 MMb/d. Not only did Alaska account for one-quarter of total U.S. crude oil output that year, it also briefly knocked Texas off its perch as the #1 oil-producing state. Alaskan oil didn’t give the U.S. “energy independence” -– a rallying cry in the Ford, Carter and Reagan years –– but it helped. The physical characteristics of the North Slope’s medium sour-ish crude, with a 31.5 API gravity and about 1% sulfur (generally the cutoff we use to differentiate sweet and sour crude), were (and are) a plus. West Coast refineries were configured to run it, and the crude was — and is — very marketable in Asia too. However, as shown in Figure 1 above, the picture quickly turned gloomy. Alaskan oil production peaked in 1988 and has headed downhill ever since as additional rounds of investments for new production ceased to materialize (see A Change Is Gonna Come). By 1995, Alaskan crude production had fallen to less than 1.5 MMb/d, and by 2000 it was down to less than 1 MMb/d. The slide didn’t end there. By the 2010s, production was hovering around 500 Mb/d, and in September 2024 (the most recent EIA stats available) it stood at about 408 Mb/d — or only 3% of total U.S. output (down from a peak of around 25% in 1988), which in August was at 13.4 MMb/d (right end of orange line in Figure 2 below). The issue isn’t that Alaska is running out of oil — far from it, as significant reserves still exist under the frozen tundra on the North Slope. However, Alaska’s energy industry has been thwarted by federal policies (most of the reserves were located on federally controlled land) as well as competition from shale producers in the Lower 48 who were largely unhindered by similar restrictions. As Alaskan production fell, the pace of crude oil flows through the 48-inch-diameter TAPS pipeline slowed considerably. The short explanation is when the pipeline was running close to its full, 2.1-MMb/d capacity in the 1980s, the crude flowed quickly and remained warm. Now, with flow rates of just over 400 Mb/d, the crude flows more slowly and cools off to uncomfortably low temperatures, which further slows the pace of the oil. Trips from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez that used to take only 4.5 days now can take four times as long. More importantly, at these low rates, the pipeline was approaching levels (estimated at 300-350 Mb/d) below which the oil could not flow due to freezing, which would raise the possibility of a full system shutdown (see The End?). But as we said in the intro to today’s blog, things are set to change thanks to the ongoing bump-up in ANS production and two larger projects that we believe will ramp up Alaska’s oil production through the late 2020s. ConocoPhillips announced December 17 that it had begun producing oil from its Nuna project (green-shaded area in Figure 3 below), which is expected to produce 20 Mb/d once it reaches peak production. Nuna, located east of the Colville River near the village of Nuiqsut, is part of the larger Kuparuk River field, which began producing oil in 1981.As for the two new projects, we’ll begin with Pikka (pink-shaded area in Figure 3), which is located west of Prudhoe Bay (beige-shaded area) within the Nanushuk oil play — the biggest conventional onshore oil discovery in the U.S. in decades when Armstrong Oil & Gas and Repsol drilled a successful discovery well in 2013. (Oil Search, an E&P based in Papua New Guinea, acquired Armstrong’s 49% stake in Pikka in 2018 and merged with Australia’s Santos Ltd. in December 2021; Repsol retains the other 51%.)The Nanshuk oil play is a formation and a layer of the earth’s crust estimated to date back 100 million years. It holds as many as 1.2 billion recoverable barrels of light oil and Santos — Pikka’s future operator — has said the project can access 400 MMbbl. Pikka production is expected to start in the first half of 2026 and could ramp up to 80 Mb/d by the end of 2027 or early 2028.So far, construction has gone well. Santos reported in its Q3 earnings in October that the company’s $2.6 billion Phase 1 project is now 67% complete and six months ahead of schedule. Twelve wells have been drilled, seven stimulated, and six flowed back. The company reported that its well tests were successful and in line with expectations.Much bigger and more impactful than Pikka, ConocoPhillips’s $8 billion Willow project (blue-shaded area in Figure 3) is also located within the Nanushuk oil play, just west of Pikka and in the northeast corner of the National Petroleum Reserve, which was set aside for petroleum development in 1923 and is roughly the size of Indiana — about 23.5 million acres. (Willow’s gravel footprint is only about 385 acres.)ConocoPhillips said Willow has 600 MMbbl of recoverable reserves and that production is expected to peak at 180 Mb/d around 2031; first oil at Willow is expected in 2029. The company acquired the Willow-area leases in 1999 and has been working on its development strategy — including a rigorous permitting process — since 2017. In March 2023, ConocoPhillips received required approvals from the Biden administration and in November of that year a federal judge upheld those approvals. The following month, the company announced it had made a final investment decision (FID) and started ice-road construction. When the project is complete, it will have 200 wells.We’ve got our eyes on other developments too. The most prominent among these is a project by Australia’s Energy 88, which began drilling on its Icewine East acreage (aqua-shaded area in Figure 3) in 2023. An independent analysis has found the assets could hold more than 1 billion barrels (1,000 MMbbl) of recoverable oil from multiple zones. In 2024, Energy 88 discovered an oil-bearing reservoir play by drilling and logging at Icewine 1 and Hickory 1. The company, which released a timeline for development on December 30 (see Figure 4 below), now calls the developments by a single name: Project Phoenix. Put simply, we believe 2024 will turn out to have been the nadir for Alaskan oil production. Although existing fields will continue to experience natural declines, the addition of Nuna will boost volumes slightly in 2025, while the startup of Pikka in early 2026 will push production to 490 Mb/d by 2028 (an increase of over 20% from current levels). With Willow starting up in 2029, we project Alaskan production will peak at 660 Mb/d by 2032 as Willow ramps up to full operation. Thereafter, we expect production will gradually fall back again due to continued declines in legacy volumes — if additional projects (like the 88 Energy development) don’t come to fruition.
Oil and gas lease sale in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge draws no bids • Alaska Beacon - No bids were received in the second congressionally managed oil and gas lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the Department of the Interior announced on Wednesday. Had any been received, bids were scheduled to be opened on Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. That Interior agency was charged with managing the refuge leasing program created through a 2017 tax bill passed by a Republican-controlled Congress and signed by President Donald Trump in his first term. The absence of bids this time, after very few bids were received in the first lease sale held four years ago, backs up Biden administration officials’ beliefs that drilling in the refuge is bad policy, said a statement released by the Interior Department. “The lack of interest from oil companies in development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge reflects what we and they have known all along – there are some places too special and sacred to put at risk with oil and gas drilling. This proposal was misguided in 2017, and it’s misguided now,” Acting Interior Secretary Laura Daniel-David said in the statement. “The BLM has followed the law and held two lease sales that have exposed the false promises made in the Tax Act. The oil and gas industry is sitting on millions of acres of undeveloped leases elsewhere; we’d suggest that’s a prudent place to start, rather than engage further in speculative leasing in one of the most spectacular places in the world.” This week’s lease sale follows one held on Jan. 6, 2021, that drew little bidding, and none from large oil companies. Most bids in that sale were from the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, an Alaska state development agency. AIDEA’s head disclosed Wednesday that the agency and the Biden administration have reached an agreement to ensure that the leases acquired in that first sale will not be resold to other parties. Supporters of oil development in the refuge blamed the Biden administration for the lack of bids this time, saying it put too many restrictions on oil development in the refuge, sometimes referred to as ANWR. “This is no surprise. From Day 1, Joe Biden and (Interior Secretary) Deb Haaland have sought to illegally shut down any chance of developing ANWR and have said as much. They and their eco-colonialist allies have made every effort to delay, and ultimately kill, any chance of successful ANWR lease sales and have canceled the voices of the Iñupiat Native people of Alaska in the process,” U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, said in a statement. Sullivan’s statement referred to the pro-drilling stance of many of the North Slope’s Iñupiat people. He said the second lease sale was structured “to circumvent the federal law Congress passed and President Trump signed” by closing off nearly three-quarters of the coastal plain to new leasing. “The good news is we will soon be working with the Trump administration which, unlike Biden-Harris, has a proven track record of responsible Alaska resource development, faithfully implementing the laws passed by Congress, and respecting the voices of the Iñupiat people of the North Slope who strongly support the ANWR leasing program. January 20th can’t come soon enough,” Sullivan added.
Alberta announces new effort to expand oil and gas pipeline capacity | Calgary Herald - The Alberta government is partnering with Calgary-based pipeline company Enbridge Inc. to increase the province’s oil and gas pipeline capacity. The agreement is to begin with a new formal working group between Enbridge and the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, a Crown corporation. Premier Danielle Smith says they will focus on streamlining regulations and permitting approvals, and expanding opportunities along Enbridge’s existing 29,000-kilometre network. It’s all part of her United Conservative government’s push to double oil production and increase exports to the United States. Smith says rather than investing taxpayer dollars directly into pipeline projects, the province will look to guarantee capacity by leveraging oil and gas that is paid in-kind to the government instead of financial royalties. She says the province has a responsibility to ensure its oil and natural gas has market access, and noted Alberta exports more than 4.3 million barrels per day of crude oil to the U.S.
Mexican Firms Tout Coatzacoalcos LNG Project Targeting European Market -Mexican firms Comercializadora Aqualita SA and Casarve Servicios SRL are designing a ready-to-build LNG project in the Mexican Gulf port of Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz. It joins a host of other LNG projects in Mexico that are seeking to get off the ground. The Coatzacoalcos II LNG terminal would target European as well as South American markets, according to Casarve director Santiago Arroyo, who spoke with NGI. It would be developed privately, without the assistance of Mexican state utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE).
Britain’s Gas Storage Worries Rise as Levels Dip to Less Than a Week's Supply, Centrica Warns (Reuters) — Britain's gas storage levels are worryingly low, with less than a week's worth of gas in storage after a cold snap, energy company Centrica said on Friday while the government said there was no need for concern. Much of Britain has been hit by cold weather and snow this week, ramping up demand for gas, which heats about 75% of the country's homes. The cold weather has also been accompanied by low wind speeds, reducing output from the country's wind farms and increasing demand for gas from power plants to produce electricity. “As of the 9th of January 2025, UK storage sites are 26% lower than last year’s inventory at the same time, leaving them around half full. This means the UK has less than a week of gas demand in store,” Centrica, operator of the country’s largest gas storage site and owner of energy supplier British Gas, said in a statement. Britain's Department for Energy Security (DESNZ) said it had no concerns about the country's energy supplies. "(We) are confident we will have a sufficient gas supply and electricity capacity to meet demand this winter, due to our diverse and resilient energy system," a DESNZ spokesperson said in an email. Britain obtains the majority of its gas via pipelines to Norway, the UK Continental Shelf, including the North Sea, and from shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Supply through pipelines is stable while eight LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month, LSEG data showed. "The overall picture across Great Britain’s eight main gas storage sites remains healthy - with average levels at just over 60% across the board," a spokesperson for National Gas, owned by Macquarie Asset Management and responsible for the country's gas networks, said via email. Gas in storage is used to bolster supply when demand is high and help to moderate price swings. Unlike the European Union, Britain does not have a mandatory gas storage target, which the EU set after price spikes and supply fears during the energy crisis. “We are an outlier from the rest of Europe when it comes to the role of storage in our energy system and we are now seeing the implications of that,” Centrica CEO Chris O'Shea said. Centrica’s Rough gas storage site, a depleted field off England's east coast, accounts for about half of the country’s gas storage capacity. Rough stopped storing gas in 2017 but was reopened in 2022 at lower capacity because of the global energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The company said it could invest 2 billion pounds ($2.46 billion) to upgrade the site to maximum capacity but is seeking support from the government through a price cap and floor mechanism to make this viable.
Norway’s Troll Field Reaches Record Output as Equinor Boosts Natural Gas Exports to Europe - The largest natural gas field in the North Sea hit record output in 2024 as operator Equinor ASA continues its plans to use existing discoveries and infrastructure to replace Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe. Two graphs from Natural Gasw Intelligence (NGI) showing European Union natural gas storage levels with historical volatility. Troll field natural gas production reached a record 42.5 billion cubic meters (Bcm) last year, according to Equinor. It was an almost 10% increase over the previous production record set in 2022. "With record-high production in 2024, the Troll field confirms its position as a pillar of Europe's energy security,” Equinor’s Kjetil Hove, executive vice president for Norwegian exploration and production said. “The field contributes to a stable gas supply for millions of households and is important for European industry.”
Germany And Italy Have Replaced Russian Gas Via Ukraine - Central European gas flows have fully adapted to the end of Russian gas supply via Ukraine, with Germany and Italy making up the shortfall. According to Austrian Grid Management, the country boosted imports from Germany and Italy when flows from Slovakia were halted after Ukraine declined to renew a 5-year gas transit deal with Russia. Slovakia has drawn on a connection with Hungary as its only source of imports so far in the new year after Gazprom stopped supplying Slovenský plynárenský priemysel (SPP) as the Ukraine transit ended.Energy experts had earlier warned that Austria, Hungary and Slovakia are likely to be the hardest hit after imports of Russian gas via Ukraine are cut off. Thankfully, they have managed to secure alternative supplies: last year, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR,started supplying natural gas to Slovakia’s SPP, the country’s largest state-owned energy operator. This came just a month after SPPsigned a short-term pilot contract to buy natural gas from Azerbaijan as it prepared for a possible halt to Russian supplies via Ukraine. SPP has pledged to supply its customers mainly via pipelines from Germany and also Hungary, albeit at additional transit costs.Meanwhile, the United States is likely to emerge as the biggest winner of the unfolding situation in Europe–if recent developments are any indication. Norway and the U.S. have replaced Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier: last year, Norway supplied 87.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas to Europe, good for 30.3% of total imports while the U.S. supplied 56.2 bcm, accounting for 19.4% of total. However, the U.S. is the biggest LNG supplier to Europe: last year, the U.S. accounted for nearly half of total LNG imports by the continent, marking the third consecutive year in which the United States supplied more LNG to Europe than any other country. The U.S. supplied 27%, or 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), of total European LNG imports in 2021; 44% (6.5 Bcf/d) in 2022; and 48% (7.1 Bcf/d) in 2023. Meanwhile, Europe’s capacity to accept LNG is increasing. Europe’s LNG import, or regasification, capacity was on track to expand to 29.3 Bcf/d in 2024, a 33% increase compared with 2021. Germany is adding the most LNG regasification capacity in Europe, with developers in the country having added 1.8 Bcf/d in 2023 and on track to add another 1.6 Bcf/d in 2024.'
Winter Weather, Natural Gas Storage Withdrawals Keep TTF Elevated — LNG Recap -European natural gas prices on Monday corrected after a rally last week that pushed the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) to its highest point since November 2023. (a chart showing European natural gas storage levels) The prompt TTF closed 5% lower at $14.40/MMBtu after finishing above $15 late last week. The contract is still trading in a narrow range with the prompt Japan-Korea Marker, which closed at $14.36 last week. European prices gained sharply last week after a transit deal that allowed Russia to move natural gas to the continent via Ukraine expired on New Year’s Day. The end of the deal leaves Europe without about 530 Bcf of natural gas, or enough to meet 5% of its demand.
U.S. LNG Wins Big As Europe Boosts Overseas Gas Imports -- The early winter cold snaps prompted Europe to boost its liquefied natural gas imports to a near one-year high in December, with arrivals of American LNG also at their highest since January 2024. Following two consecutive milder winters, Europe now sees the first proper winter since the 2022 energy crisis and is depleting its natural gas in storage at the fastest pace in seven years. The end of the Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe via Ukraine has also stoked uneasiness in the European gas market, and buyers have been boosting LNG purchases in recent weeks. European LNG imports jumped in December to an 11-month high at 10.89 million metric tons, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. Yet, Europe’s higher LNG imports in December have not been at the expense of Asia, which also boosted imports of the super-chilled fuel last month to the highest in 11 months, per the data compiled by Kpler. Europe’s December import volumes represented a 23% surge compared to the LNG arrivals in November of 8.86 million tons and were the highest since the 11.18 million tons of imports in January last year, the data showed.Half of the 10.89 million tons imported in December 2024 came from the United States. Europe’s imports of American LNG are estimated to have also hit an 11-month high at 5.22 million tons. Since 2022, U.S. LNG has played an increasingly bigger role in meeting part of European gas demand after Russia cut off deliveries to most of its EU customers in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Norway has replaced Russia as Europe’s top pipeline natural gas supplier, while the U.S. has delivered at least half of the LNG that European countries import.With European inventories depleting fast and now sitting below the five-year average for this point during the winter season, Europe will need to boost overseas supply not only for this winter’s consumption, but also in the spring and summer, to fill up storage sites ahead of the 2025/2026 winter. U.S. LNG can come to the rescue this year as supply from America is growing with the start-up of Venture Global’s second facility, Plaquemines LNG, in Louisiana, and the commissioning of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. Both Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 achieved first gas in late December 2024 and are expected to ramp up operations and exports throughout this year.U.S. LNG exports surged to a new high of 8.5 million metric tons in December, pushing the annual total up by 4.5% compared to 2023, according to LSEG data. Of the total exports in December, 5.84 million tons, or 69%, went to Europe, up from 5.09 million tons in November.The 2024 total reached 88.3 million tons, which was up from 84.5 million tons a year earlier and cemented the United States’ position as the biggest LNG exporter globally. U.S. LNG exports are expected to jump by 15% in 2025, reaching almost 14 Bcf/d, thanks to higher export capacity with the Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 plants, the EIA said in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December.Europe’s gas demand this year could be a boon to U.S. LNG exporters as European gas storage will need to be filled to at least 90% of capacity by November 1, 2025, in anticipation of the 2025/2026 winter.For now, it looks like the recent rally in Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, is giving Europe an advantage in attracting U.S. LNG cargoes. Spark Commodities assessed the front-month price for February delivery of LNG to northwest Europe at $14.904 per MMBtu as of last week—the highest level since October 2023. This rise in the European price, driven by the TTF rally, has effectively closed the U.S.-northeast Asia arbitrage via the Cape of Good Hope, the commodities analysts said.
LNG Price Rally Could Prompt Gas-to-Oil Switching in Asia - The recent rally in LNG prices amid tightening global markets in the winter has moved the Asian LNG benchmark prices to a rare premium over Brent prices, suggesting that oil-based fuels are now more cost-competitive than natural gas. This premium of LNG prices over the Brent crude benchmark could prompt fuel switching in the price-sensitive Asian economies from natural gas to oil and oil-based fuels, according to Bloomberg.The Asian LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea marker price, traded in early January at 22% higher than Brent on an energy-equivalent basis, per Bloomberg’s calculations.In the first week of the New Year, spot LNG prices for delivery into northeast Asia in February jumped to their highest in a month, according to industry sources estimates reported by Reuters.The rally in Asia’s LNG prices was driven by a surge in European benchmark gas prices amid fast-depleting inventories and the end of the Russian transit flows to Europe via Ukraine.“The suspension of the Russian gas flow via Ukraine could result in a net loss for the European market, necessitating higher LNG imports to balance the market in 2025,” Siamak Adibi, an analyst at consultancy FGE, told Reuters last week.Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices rose on the first trading day for 2025, a day after Russian flows to Europe via Ukraine stopped after decades of pipeline deliveries through the route.The end of the Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe via Ukraine has stoked uneasiness in the European gas market, and buyers have been boosting LNG purchases in recent weeks, driving up prices.With European inventories depleting fast and now sitting below the five-year average for this point during the winter season, Europe will need to boost overseas supply not only for this winter’s consumption but also in the spring and summer, to fill up storage sites ahead of the 2025/2026 winter.
Next Wave of Global LNG Projects Nearing Startup as BP’s Greater Tortue Advances - BP plc has moved one step closer to bringing online its Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project offshore Western Africa, which is among just a few liquefaction facilities expected to enter service this year across a tight global market. The company started flowing gas from wells offshore Mauritania and Senegal at the beginning of January. Gas from first phase wells is being moved to the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel about 25 miles offshore for the next stage of commissioning. The FPSO would remove water, condensate and impurities before the gas is eventually moved to a 2.3 million tons/year (Mt/y) floating LNG vessel six miles offshore.
India’s Newest LNG Import Terminal Welcomes Its First Cargo --The latest Indian LNG import terminal, owned by state-owned Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), has just received its first cargo of the super-chilled fuel, HPCL officials told Bloomberg on Thursday. The terminal is undergoing commissioning activities and the shipment is expected to fully unload by January 16, the officials said.In October, sources told Reuters that HPCL aims to commission its new LNG import terminal in December and January, and is holding talks with potential suppliers of LNG for the long term.HPCL was looking for a cargo to commission the new facility in Gujarat State on India’s west coast in December or January, after failing to do so in April 2024, due to bad weather.India plans to ramp up LNG imports and the use of natural gas as a fuel cleaner than coal and needed in many industrial processes.For Indian firms, securing LNG supply is crucial as consumption of natural gas in industrial activities is set to soar.India’s industry expansion and rising oil refining to meet higher fuel demand are set to drive a tripling of the country’s natural gas consumption by 2050, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last year.Per the EIA forecasts, India’s gas demand – buoyed by oil refining and other industrial production – is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.4% by 2050, more than twice the 2.0% annual growth rate of gas consumption in China, the next-fastest-growing country.India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, is set to become a major force in the natural gas market, too, as its demand is expected to surge in the coming decades amid industry and population expansion.As India sees fertilizers as a critical industry for its agricultural sector, and as steelmaking and construction are booming to meet the growing economy and population, natural gas demand will continue to rise. India’s domestic production, although it has increased over the past two decades, will not be enough to meet growth in demand. So the country will have to rely on more LNG imports, considering that it lacks pipeline connections with major gas producers such as Russia or the Gulf petrostates.
Indian Natural Gas Demand Growth Challenged By LNG Terminal Rates, Regulatory Agency Says - Petronet LNG Ltd. is facing scrutiny from regulators and financial markets after a government report highlighted its tariff rates as an obstacle to the country’s wider adoption of natural gas. Graph showing yearly natural gas production and imports to India. In a case study published at the end of December, researchers with the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) outlined the current competitive landscape of India’s LNG import market and suggested regulatory reforms to boost consumer adoption of gas. India’s government is currently aiming to grow the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 compared to 6.3% in 2023. However, PNGRB suggested the end cost to consumers has remained a barrier despite wholesale costs and terminal utilization rates improving for India’s regasification capacity holders. While the study did not mention Petronet by name, it used the facilities at Dahej and Kochi as examples, which are operated by the company.
Japan’s LNG Imports Forecast to Stay Steady as Buyers Increase Trading -LNG could continue to play an important role in Japan’s energy transition, according to a draft of the country’s latest energy strategy plan unveiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Chart by Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) showing Asian LNG parity prices. The government agency said Japan would continue to diversify its energy supplies and avoid becoming too reliant on any source. The draft was released in December, just as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study said LNG demand has peaked in Japan. Fossil fuels are expected to account for 30-40% of Japan’s energy mix by 2040, a major reduction as coal, oil, and natural gas represented about 69% of the country’s power generation last year. Renewable energy is expected to produce up to 50% of Japan’s electricity by 2040, up from 23% in 2023. METI also detailed a plan to continue reviving the nuclear sector.
Russia Crimea news: emergency declared after black sea oil spill - India Today - Russia declared a regional state of emergency on Saturday in Crimea, as workers cleared tons of contaminated sand and earth on either side of the Kerch Strait following an oil spill in the Black Sea last month. Mikhail Razvozhaev, the governor of the city of Sevastopol, said new traces of minor pollution required urgent elimination and declared a state of emergency in the city - giving authorities more power to take swift decisions such as ordering citizens to evacuate their homes.
Russia's Putin orders authorities to ramp up efforts to control Black Sea oil spill -Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, expressed his dissatisfaction with the Emergency Situations Ministry's inadequate response to the oil spill caused by the damage to two oil ships in the Black Sea. Putin described it as "one of the most serious environmental challenges" Russia has faced in recent years, instructing the authorities concerned to expedite efforts to control the damage caused by the incident. On Dec. 15, two Russian oil tankers were caught in a storm south of the Kerch Strait. The Volgoneft-212 oil ship, which was reportedly carrying approximately 4,900 tonnes of mazut, a heavy, low-quality oil product, before it broke in two and sank, leading to an oil spill and the death of a crew member. The Volgoneft-239 was also damaged, causing it to drift for several hours before running aground near the Port of Taman in Krasnodar Krai and leaking oil. The Russian president emphasized the urgency of addressing the issue and asked for a detailed report from Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov on the current situation and instructed immediate steps to reduce the spill's impact. "This matter cannot be ignored at today’s meeting," Putin said, stressing the need for decisive action. To tackle the crisis, the president also ordered the establishment of an emergency task force to remove the consequences of the fuel oil spill and mitigating its environmental impact.
Fuel oil leaks from stranded tanker near Hokkaido beach | The Asahi Shimbun - Hakodate, Hokkaido— Fuel oil has leaked from a 3,919-ton tanker that ran aground here on Jan. 6, but its cargo of 3,800 kiloliters of diesel fuel and kerosene did not spill out, authorities said. The fuel oil slick, covering an area about 2.7 kilometers long and 1 km wide, was found on Jan. 8, when the Japan Coast Guard was preparing to tow away the Sanwa Maru off Cape Esan in the Tsugaru Strait. The 11 crew members were not injured. According to the Hakodate Coast Guard, the 1st Regional Coast Guard Headquarters received a report from another tanker at 6:20 p.m. on Jan. 6 that “the Sanwa Maru is heading toward land and is in danger of running aground.” The Sanwa Maru struck a rocky beach about 20 meters from shore with its bow facing land. It was heading from Tomakomai Port in Hokkaido to Funagawa Port in Oga, Akita Prefecture. The sea was not rough at the time, according to the Hakodate Coast Guard. The Sanwa Maru is owned by Wako Kisen, a limited private company in Imabari, Ehime Prefecture. It was loaded with about 59 kiloliters of fuel oil A and 140 kiloliters of fuel oil C. Damage near the ship’s fuel tank at the stern was seen, the Hakodate Coast Guard said. Its cargo of 700 kiloliters of diesel oil and 3,100 kiloliters of kerosene appears to have remained onboard, officials said. On Jan. 7, a salvage operation started, but the Sanwa Maru could not be moved from the reef. At around 5:45 a.m. on Jan. 8, the Sanwa Maru reported that fuel oil had spilled. The vessel put up an oil fence on the port side to contain the spread. The vessel was tilting about 5 degrees toward the starboard side. Seven of the crew members who were not involved in the salvage operation were rescued by a boat dispatched by the patrol vessel Okushiri. Around noon on Jan. 8, oil could be smelled on the beach near the ship. Oil slicks were found on rocks and vanishing wave blocks. The Coast Guard is investigating the cause of the stranding. The shipowner and salvage company will decide on future plans after analyzing the fuel oil spill.
Santos fined $10,000 for condensate spill off WA coast -Santos WA Northwest Pty Ltd has been fined $10,000 plus $9,700 in costs after pleading guilty to charges related to a condensate spill at the Varanus Island Marine Terminal off the northwest coast of Western Australia. The company admitted to failing to operate its licensed pipeline properly and prevent the escape of petroleum, violating the Petroleum (Submerged Lands) Act 1982.The incident occurred on March 20, 2022, when approximately 25,000 litres of condensate leaked from a ruptured flexible pipeline used to transfer petroleum condensate to offshore shipping tankers.The spill was discovered shortly after dawn, prompting an immediate halt to loading operations.Investigations revealed that the rupture was caused by repeated overbending and kinking of the flexible loading line, which gradually compromised its structural integrity.The pipeline, stored on the seabed at depths of 20-25 metres, was connected to surface buoys for retrieval by support vessels.Santos‘ failures as the pipeline licensee included:
- Insufficient monitoring of condensate loading operations
- Failure to conduct an adequate investigation of the pipeline’s fitness for purpose before its use in 2022
- Inadequate training of support vessel crews on the company’s written procedures for loading offtake tankers
Following the spill, the Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (DEMIRS) required Santos to strengthen its operational controls by amending the company’s environmental plan to reduce the risk of future incidents.Tyler Sujdovic, Executive Director of Resource and Environmental Compliance at DEMIRS, emphasised the importance of operating subsea pipelines in a “proper and workmanlike manner” as a fundamental principle in the oil and gas industry.He stated: “Companies must ensure all workers, including contractors, have the required training and access to up-to-date written procedures to manage petroleum effectively when performing their assigned tasks.” in response to the incident, Santos has reviewed its practices and implemented measures to prevent the kinking of flexible loading lines and improve subsea monitoring of the line’s position.
CNOOC Starts Production in Panyu Oilfield Project in South China Sea - CNOOC Ltd. has put onstream the Panyu 11-12/10-1/10-2 Oilfield Adjustment Joint Development Project in the South China Sea, its first startup announcement in 2025. The state-backed oil and gas exploration and production company expects the project to reach about 13,600 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boed) in peak production this year, according to a statement on CNOOC Ltd.’s website. It aims to develop 15 wells. The Panyu oilfield has produced over 380 million barrels of petroleum since coming online 2003, according to CNOOC Ltd., the field’s sole developer. “An intelligent oilfield cluster with digital, intelligent and unmanned operation has already been established”, the statement said. The Panyu 11-12/10-1/10-2 project sits in the eastern part of the South China Sea. The project has an average water depth of approximately 100 meters (328.08 feet), according to CNOOC Ltd., majority-owned by China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC). The project has a new wellhead platform and unmanned wellhead platform. The wellhead platform links to the existing Panyu 10-2 platform via a trestle bridge, CNOOC Ltd. said. “The new unmanned wellhead platform of the project is equipped with ‘Typhoon Production Mode’ and heavy oil intelligent processing system, which can effectively improve production safety and operation efficiency”, it stated. Last year CNOOC Ltd. announced six production startups in the South China Sea: the Huizhou 26-6 Oilfield Development Project, the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 Oilfield Secondary Development Project, the Shenhai-1 Phase II Natural Gas Development Project, the Wushi 17-2 Oilfields Development Project, the Wushi 23-5 Oilfields Development Project and the Xijiang 30-2 Oilfield Xijiang 30-1 Block Development Project. At home, besides the South China Sea, the Bohai waters also saw five startups by CNOOC Ltd. in 2024: the Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield Development Project, the Bozhong 19-6 Gas Field 13-2 Block 5 Well Site Development Project, the Jinzhou 23-2 Oilfield Development Project, the Suizhong 36-1/Luda 5-2 Oilfield Secondary Adjustment and Development Project and the Suizhong 36-2 Oilfield 36-2 Block Development Project. Overseas in 2024 CNOOC Ltd. also unlocked new production in Brazil and Canada. On November 6, 2024, CNOOC Ltd. announced production had started at the Long Lake Northwest Project in the Canadian province of Alberta. It expects the project to achieve a peak production of 8,200 bpd in 2025. CNOOC Petroleum North America ULC, a wholly owned subsidiary of CNOOC Ltd., operates the project with a 100 percent stake. On October 31, 2024, CNOOC Ltd. and its partners announced start-up in the third phase of the Mero oilfield in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil. Mero3 has a production capacity of 180,000 bpd, which will raise the field’s installed capacity to 590,000 bpd, according to the owners. CNOOC Ltd., through CNOOC Petroleum Brasil Ltda., holds a 9.65 percent stake. Operator Petróleo Brasileiro SA owns 38.6 percent, TotalEnergies SE 19.3 percent, Shell PLC 19.3 percent, China National Petroleum Corp. 9.65 percent and Pré-Sal Petróleo SA 3.5 percent. In the first nine months of 2024 CNOOC Ltd.’s domestic output rose 6.6 percent year-on-year to 369.2 million boe (MMboe), according to the company’s quarterly report published October 28, 2024. Meanwhile its production abroad during the same period grew 12.2 percent year-over-year to 172.9 MMboe, driven by the Payara oilfield in Guyana’s Stabroek block. Total production in the first three quarters of 2024 increased 8.5 percent to 542.1 MMboe, a company record for the January–September period, according to the quarterly report on CNOOC Ltd.’s website.
Iraq’s oil exports to the US exceed $5 billion in 2024 - Shafaq News - Iraq’s oil exports to the United States surpassed $5 billion during the first 11 months of 2024, making it the second-largest Arab oil supplier to the US market, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. EIA reported, “Iraq exported 64.11 million barrels of crude oil to the US between January and November of 2024, generating a total revenue of $5.18 billion.” Saudi Arabia retained its status as the top Arab exporter to the United States, shipping 92.53 million barrels of crude oil during the same period, valued at $7.73 billion. Libya followed Iraq in third place, while the UAE and Kuwait ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. The report highlighted that Arab oil exports from these five countries combined amounted to 174 million barrels, with a cumulative financial value of $14.5 billion.
Global Crude Exports Fall in 2024 for First Time Since Covid - Weaker oil demand growth in key consuming regions and reshuffled trade routes resulted in 2024 in the first decline in the world’s crude oil exports since the 2020-2021 pandemic-influenced slump, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing ship-tracking data. Global crude exports declined by 2% last year to 41.68 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 42.51 million bpd in 2023, according to data from Kpler cited by Reuters.The decline in 2024 was the first since the period 2020-2021 when crude exports fell from 41.85 million bpd in 2019 to below 40 million bpd amid the slump in global demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.In 2024, the shifts in crude flows due to the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea affected global oil trade.According to vessel-tracking data from Kpler, crude exports from the Middle East to Europe slumped by 22% last year, due to tankers avoiding the shortest route from the Middle East to Europe and opting for the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.The closure of some refining capacity also lowered crude demand at European refineries.Elsewhere, China’s weaker-than-expected oil demand also played a role in the change in oil routes, and so did rising production from Guyana, Brazil, and the United States.“Oil is no longer flowing along the least cost curve, and the first consequence is tight shipping, which raises freight prices and eventually cuts into refining margins,” Adi Imsirovic, an energy consultant and former oil trader, told Reuters.The sanctions on Russia and Iran are also changing global oil flows and this “is creating opportunistic alliances,” Imsirovic said.China continues to be the key and nearly only buyer of Iranian crude, while China and India are now Russia’s most important customers as Western sanctions, embargoes, and the price cap on Russian oil have shrunk the pool of potential buyers of Russia’s petroleum.
Russia Claims Compliance With OPEC+ Oil Output Cuts in December -Russian crude oil production fell in December to below Moscow’s output cap under the OPEC+ agreement, anonymous sources with knowledge of Russian production data told Bloomberg on Tuesday.Russia produced 8.971 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last month, down from previous months and about 7,000 bpd below the country’s production target under the OPEC+ deal, according to the sources.Russia stopped releasing oil and gas output data shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The market and analysts have to rely on sources familiar with the figures that aren’t public anymore, or on ship-tracking data for Russian overseas shipments of crude and refined petroleum products.Russia has been overproducing above its OPEC+ quota for the most part of the past couple of years. Moscow, as well as Kazakhstan and OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, have pledged to compensate for previous overproduction with deeper cuts later this year.Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan submitted in July 2024 their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat for overproduced crude volumes for the first six months of 2024. The cumulative overproduction in these six months was about 1.184 million bpd for Iraq, 620,000 bpd for Kazakhstan, and 480,000 bpd for Russia, OPEC said back then. Russia’s plan envisages Moscow mostly compensating for its overproduction in the months March to September 2025, due to the more challenging conditions in the winter. Russian output could see further declines in the coming months if the tightened Western sanctions curb Moscow’s exports, since Russia doesn’t have much storage capacity for the crude that isn’t shipped abroad or refined locally.The Biden Administration is set to slap more sanctions on Russia’s oil exports by targeting tankers hauling Russian crude and products, sources familiar with the outgoing administration’s plans told Reuters earlier this week.European countries have been ramping up sanctions pressure on Russia as they look to reduce Vladimir Putin’s oil revenues that fund the war in Ukraine. The UK and the European Union announced in the middle of December a raft of new sanctions that target Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers enabling oil trade.
OPEC oil output falls in December on UAE and Iran, survey finds (Reuters) - OPEC oil output fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey found, as a drop from the United Arab Emirates due to field maintenance and from Iran offset a hike from Nigeria and other gains elsewhere in the group.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.46 million barrels per day last month, down 50,000 bpd from November, the survey showed on Tuesday, with the UAE providing the biggest drop.The modest decline in output came as the wider OPEC+ group kept production cuts in place in December due to global demand concerns and rising output outside the group. OPEC+ decided last month to postpone its plan to start raising output until April.OPEC's biggest drop, of 90,000 bpd, came from the UAE, the survey found. A source said field maintenance was the reason for the decline, and the survey put output at 2.85 million bpd.Iran's output, which hit the highest since 2018 last year despite U.S. sanctions, fell by 70,000 bpd, the survey found. It may soon be curbed by tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs and other analysts have forecast.OPEC's top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, kept output steady and the group pumped below its implied target for the nine members covered by supply agreements, the survey found. Nigeria exceeded its target by the largest amount.While the survey indicates the UAE and Iraq are pumping below their targets and November data provided by OPEC's secondary sources puts them not far above, other estimates such as those of the International Energy Agency suggest they are pumping significantly more.Among countries boosting output, Nigeria raised production by 50,000 bpd, the survey found, reflecting higher domestic usage in refineries such as Dangote and higher exports. Nigeria said in December it had resumed some operations at its Warri refinery after years of shutdowns. Libyan output also rose by 50,000 bpd, continuing a recovery after the resolution of a dispute over control of the central bank that had led to production cuts. The country is exempt from OPEC+ agreements to limit output. The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on flows data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows such as Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
Oil Prices Fall To $76.23 Amid Strong Dollar And Market Anticipation - BizWatchNigeria.Ng - Global oil prices dip on Monday, ending a five-day upward trend fueled by seasonal demand and economic interventions in China. Brent crude falls by 0.4% to $76.23 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eases to $73.69, marking their first decline after reaching highs not seen since October.The U.S. dollar’s recent strength heavily influences this retreat, as a stronger dollar raises costs for international buyers purchasing dollar-denominated commodities like oil. Analysts attribute the cautious market sentiment to the currency’s two-year peak.Investors focus on forthcoming U.S. economic reports, including the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and December’s employment data, which are expected to provide insights into monetary policy and energy consumption trends. These indicators will likely shape expectations around inflation and interest rate adjustments.Saudi Aramco increases its crude prices for Asian buyers in February, signaling confidence in regional demand recovery after three consecutive months of price reductions. The decision highlights optimism despite broader market uncertainties.Geopolitical tensions further complicate the landscape, with potential sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil exports looming. Analysts warn that stricter sanctions could reduce Iran’s output by up to 300,000 barrels per day, affecting global supply chains.OPEC faces increasing challenges as non-OPEC producers expand output. Analysts predict that rising supplies from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries in 2025 may outpace global demand growth, reducing OPEC’s market influence. Industry experts suggest that OPEC’s role as a market balancer continues to weaken in the face of growing competition and evolving energy policies. As these dynamics unfold, oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility, reflecting the interplay of demand, supply, and macroeconomic factors.
US Storm, Weaker Dollar Push Oil To 12-Week High - Oil prices edged up to a 12-week high on Monday as a winter storm boosted demand for energy to heat U.S. homes and businesses, and on support from a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports. Brent futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $76.78 a barrel by 11:33 a.m. EST (1633 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.23. Both crude benchmarks gained for a sixth-straight day with Brent on track for its highest close since Oct. 14 and WTI on track for its highest close since Oct. 11. Brent and WTI remained in technically overbought territory for a third day in a row on forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand in the northern hemisphere and more fiscal stimulus to revitalize China's faltering economy. With interest in energy trade growing in recent weeks, open interest in WTI futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange soared to 1.933 million contracts on Jan. 3, the most since June 2023. In the world's biggest economy, a winter storm marching across much of the U.S. boosted heating demand, causing natural gas futures to spike by as much as 10% earlier on Monday, while diesel futures were on track for their highest close in 13 weeks. The U.S. dollar slumped by 1% against a basket of other currencies earlier on Monday following a newspaper report that President-elect Donald Trump was mulling tariffs that would only be applied to critical imports, potentially a relief for countries that were expecting broader levies. The dollar, however, pared some of its earlier losses against the other currencies after Trump denied the newspaper report. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced commodities such as oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. In China, the world's second-biggest economy, the yuan ended the domestic session at its weakest level in 16 months against the U.S. dollar, weighed down by trade concerns. In a sign of firmer demand expectations, Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, raised crude prices for Asian buyers in February for the first time in three months. But in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, annual inflation rose more than forecast in December due to higher food prices and a smaller drop in energy prices than in previous months. To combat higher inflation, central banks usually boost interest rates, which can slow economic growth and demand for energy. On the supply front, stronger Western sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil shipments are a possibility. The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude. Goldman Sachs expects Iranian oil production and exports to fall by the second quarter due to expected policy changes and tighter sanctions from the incoming Trump administration. Sudan, meanwhile, lifted a nearly year-long force majeure on the transport of crude oil from its neighbor South Sudan to a port on the Red Sea after security conditions improved.
The Market Gave Up its Previous Sharp Gains After Being in Overbought Territory The oil market ended the session lower on Monday after it gave up some of its previous sharp gains after being in technically overbought territory over the last few sessions. Earlier in the session, the crude market was well supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter sanctions against Russia and Iran following the news that the Biden administration was planning on imposing more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine. It is planning to impose sanctions on tankers carrying Russian oil. The market rallied to a high of $74.99 by mid-morning before it erased its gains after failing to test the $75 level. It sold off to a low of $73.20 in afternoon trading. The February WTI contract settled down 40 cents at $73.56 and the March Brent contract settled down 21 cents at $76.30. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 74 points at $2.3552 and the RB market settling down 1.82 cents at $2.0355. U.S. President Joe Biden will ban new offshore oil and gas development along most U.S. coastlines. The White House said President Biden will use his authority under the 70-year-old Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to protect all federal waters off the East and West coasts, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and portions of the northern Bering Sea in Alaska. The ban will affect 625 million acres or 253 million hectares of ocean. President Biden said the move was aligned with both his climate change agenda and his goal to conserve 30% of U.S. lands and waters by 2030. He also invoked the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, saying the low drilling potential of the areas included in the ban did not justify the public health and economic risks of future leasing. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said the decision would harm American energy security and should be reversed by Congress. Environmental group Oceana called it a victory for Americans who depend on clean coastlines and fisheries.Source stated that the Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude. The Biden administration is planning sanctions on tankers that carry Russian oil sold above the West’s $60/barrel price cap. A source said the sanctions were likely to target some of the people involved in the networks trading oil above the price cap.Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -33% w/w to 48.02 million bbl in the week ended January 3.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 928,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 10th, cutting available refining capacity by 688,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.61 million bpd in the week ending January 17th.
Heating Oil Demand Rises with Frigid Weather - The oil market ended the session higher on Tuesday after it reversed its early declines. The market was supported by the near term weather forecasts calling for frigid weather increasing heating oil demand and expectations that demand will be helped by Chinese economic stimulus. In overnight trading, the market continued to pullback after it failed to test its resistance at the $75 level on Monday. The crude market posted a low of $73.11 in overnight trading before it bounced off that level and erased its previous losses. The market traded to a high of $74.53 in afternoon trading. The February WTI contract later traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close and settled up 69 cents at $74.25. The March Brent contract settled up 75 cents at $77.05. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.11 cents at $2.3663 and the RB market settling down 89 points at $2.0266. Goldman Sachs expects colder temperatures in the U.S. and Europe to increase oil demand by 100,000 bpd next week, providing further support to diesel prices. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he will revoke an offshore oil and gas drilling ban announced by outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden.Shipping data showed that the volume of global crude exports in 2024 fell 2%, the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic due to weak demand growth and as refinery and pipeline changes reshuffled trade routes. Global crude flows have been affected for a second year by war in Ukraine and the Middle East, with tanker shipments rerouted and suppliers and buyers split into regions. Middle East oil exports to Europe declined and more U.S. oil and South American oil went to Europe. Russian oil that formerly went to Europe has been redirected to India and China. These shifts have become more pronounced as oil refineries have shut in Europe amid continued attacks on Red Sea shipping. Ship tracking data from researcher Kpler showed that Middle Eastern crude exports to Europe fell 22% in 2024. The U.S. exports 4 million bpd, increasing its share of global oil trade to 9.5%, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also, according to Kpler, Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery consumed enough domestic supply to keep around 13% of Nigeria’s crude exports in the country in 2024, up from 2% in 2023. New refining capacity ramping up in Bahrain, Oman and Iraq as well as Dos Bocas in Mexico are also likely to soak up oil production in those regions. In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline can now ship an extra 590,000 bpd to the Pacific Coast, lifting the nation’s waterborne exports to a record 550,000 bpd in 2024.Bloomberg News reported that Russia said it cut its crude oil output below its OPEC+ target in December. Russia produced 8.971 million bpd in December.A Reuters survey showed that OPEC oil output fell in December after two months of increases, as a drop from the United Arab Emirates due to field maintenance and from Iran offset an increase in output from Nigeria and other gains elsewhere in the group. OPEC produced 26.46 million bpd in December, down 50,000 bpd from November, with the UAE providing the biggest decline of 90,000 bpd. The nine OPEC members covered by supply agreements produced 21.213 million bpd, below its implied target of 21.236 million bpd.
Oil prices settle up on possible supply disruption, hopes for China demand (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, driven by concerns over limited supply from Russia and Iran because of Western sanctionsand expected higher Chinese demand.Brent crude futures settled at $77.05 a barrel, up 75 cents, or 0.98%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $74.25 a barrel, up 69 cents, 0.94%.Traders were looking to the Chinese stimulus plans to drive growth as supplies are tight following the Christmas and New Year's holidays, said Forex market analyst Razan Hilal. "While the market is currently range-bound, it is recording gains on the back of improved demand expectations fueled by holiday traffic and China’s economic pledges,". "However, the primary trend remains bearish." Some market participants have apparently started to price in small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, Concern over sanctions tightening supply has translated into increased demand for Middle Eastern oil, reflected in a rise in Saudi Arabia's February oil pricesto Asia, the first such increase in three months. On Monday in China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice banning U.S.-sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, three traders said, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.Shandong Port Group oversees large ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.Meanwhile, cold weather in the U.S. and Europe boosted heating oil demand, though oil price gains were capped by global economic data.Euro zone inflation accelerated in December, an expected blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank. "Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the euro zone," Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory and sellers are keen to step in again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.Market participants await more economic data, including the U.S. December non-farm payrolls report on Friday."We have a very tight physical market and see demand exceeding supply,". "That should lead to more drop downs of inventories around the globe."
Global oil prices climb on supply cuts and hopes of economic revival - Oil prices rose on Wednesday as tightening supplies from Russia and OPEC members, coupled with declining U.S. crude oil inventories, spurred market optimism. Brent crude increased by $0.69, or 0.90%, to $77.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $0.87, or 1.17%, to $75.12 by 0954 GMT. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw its production decline in December, breaking a two-month streak of increases. This drop was attributed to field maintenance in the United Arab Emirates, which offset gains from Nigeria and other member states. In Russia, crude output averaged 8.971 million barrels per day in December, falling short of the country’s target, according to Bloomberg. Market analysts linked the price surge to reduced seaborne exports from Russia’s western ports, which have been declining since their October 2024 peak. “The buoyancy in oil prices comes against a background of reportedly lower crude exports out of Russia,” remarked Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group. Adding to the optimism, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drawdown of 4 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week, even as gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased. Analysts viewed this as a sign of strong demand resilience. Economic activity also played a role, with an unexpected rise in U.S. job openings fueling hopes of greater oil consumption. Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, noted that weather-related disruptions, potential sanctions on Russia, and expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand were supporting the upward momentum in oil prices. Despite the current gains, analysts predict oil prices to average lower in 2025 than in 2024, driven by anticipated production increases from non-OPEC countries. BMI, a division of Fitch Group, maintained its forecast for Brent crude to average $76 per barrel in 2025, down from $80 in 2024. The market remains cautiously optimistic, balancing immediate supply challenges against broader macroeconomic factors and evolving geopolitical dynamics.
WTI Dips As Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom; Longest Crude Draw Streak In 3 Years - Oil prices are lower this morning after running up to test the 200DMA overnight (following API's report of a big crude draw). That would be a seventh straight drawdown and the longest streak of declines in three years if confirmed by government data. Traders are also bracing for frigid weather in the US, which has boosted demand for heating fuel and raised the risk of freeze-offs in production areas.“Cold fronts in the US and Europe are driving crude higher, with some support from concerns over the loss of Iranian barrels if the Trump administration tightens sanctions,” .“Nonetheless, crude looks overbought. It may yield to profit-taking, though that might need a reminder of the global economic headwinds.”In another sign of tightening supply, Russian data show that the country’s oil production was below its OPEC+ output target last month, after seaborne exports slumped to the lowest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, ports in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong, the top destination for Iranian crude, were urged to prevent US-sanctioned tankers from docking at their berths. So will the official data confirm API's report?
API
- Crude -4.02mm
- Cushing -3.1mm
- Gasoline +7.3mm
- Distillates +3.2mm
DOE
- Crude -959k (-342k exp)
- Cushing -2.50mm - biggest draw since Aug 2023
- Gasoline +6.33mm
- Distillates +6.07mm
Some shocking official prints with Crude seeing its 7th weekly draw in a row (longest streak in three years), stocks at the Cushing hub crashing by the most since Aug 2023, and products seeing huge builds.Even with a small 247k barrel addition SPR, total crude stocks drewdown for the 7th week in a row...Stocks are sufficient to meet 24.8 days of demand, which is the lowest since 2017 on a seasonal basis, testing 'tank bottoms' once again...
Oil prices settle lower as U.S. crude supplies fall but product stocks rise -Oil futures settled with a loss on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories fell for a seventh straight week, but gasoline and distillate stockpiles climbed by more than 6 million barrels each.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery fell by 93 cents, or nearly 1.3%, to settle at $73.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after seesawing between modest losses and gains during the session.
- -- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 89 cents, or 1.2%, at $76.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- February gasoline RBG25 declined by 0.8% to $2.01 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG25 shed 0.7% to $2.35 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 settled at $3.65 per million British thermal units, up 5.9%, after losing 6.1% Tuesday.
The EIA reported Wednesday that domestic commercial crude supplies declined by 1 million barrels for the week that ended Jan. 3. The government agency has shown declines in crude stockpiles for seven weeks in a row.The U.S. marked a "minor draw to crude inventories, as lower exports have provided a counterweight to ongoing strength in refining activity, helping to keep the draw in check," said Matt Smith, head U.S. analyst at Kpler.The report was expected to show a rise of 100,000 barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory decline of 4.02 million barrels, according to a source citing the data.The EIA also reported weekly supply gains of 6.3 million barrels for gasoline and 6.1 million barrels for distillates. The Wall Street Journal survey had forecast inventory gains of 2.7 million barrels for gasoline and 2.3 million barrels for distillates.U.S. oil production was down by 10,000 barrels at 13.56 million barrels per day in the latest week, the EIA said, while crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub fell by 2.5 million barrels to 20 million barrels."Given the strong pace of refining activity, it is no surprise to see large builds to the products," Smith said in emailed comments.A ramp-up in refinery maintenance in the coming weeks should, however, "usher in a return to crude inventory builds," he said. For now, "focus remains on big builds to the products and Cushing inventory levels."Demand for gasoline, meanwhile, rose, with total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.481 million barrels per day in the latest week, from 8.168 million bpd from a week earlier, according to the EIA.Looking beyond the inventories report, the crude-oil outlook is "far from great this year," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.Prices are "caught in a tug-of-war" between China's evolving economic strategies and geopolitical tension, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's energy policies that are deemed bearish for oil prices, plus OPEC's plans to unwind supply restrictions - another bearish factor - and the accelerating global shift toward clean energy, he said.On Tuesday, Brent and WTI closed near three-month highs, lifted in part by reports that members of OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - saw production fall last month.Bloomberg reported Tuesday that figures from the Russian energy ministry showed the country produced 8.971 million barrels a day of crude in December, which was 7,000 barrels a day below Moscow's December pledge. A Reuters survey released Tuesday found OPEC members produced 26.46 million barrels a day of crude last month, down 50,000 barrels a day from November.Separately, a Reuters survey showed a decline in oil output from Iran in December, and Saudi Aramco said it would raise oil prices for Asian buyers next month.The Saudi move "suggests that Aramco's physical traders anticipate tighter market conditions in China due to economic stimulus effects," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in emailed commentary. "Tighter supply and increasing demand are classic ingredients for rising oil prices."Elsewhere in the energy sector, prices for natural-gas futures recouped most of Tuesday's losses after data from the EIA showed a weekly fall in supplies of the fuel that was in line with market expectations. The numbers were released a day earlier than usual due to Thursday's National Day of Mourning in the U.S. for former President Jimmy Carter.The EIA reported Wednesday that U.S. natural-gas supplies in storage declined by 40 billion cubic feet for the week that ended Jan. 3. On average, analysts forecast a fall of 41 billion cubic feet, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Oil prices steady; traders digest mixed US inventories, weak China data -- Oil prices steadied Thursday as traders digested data showing an unexpected increase in US product inventories, while weak economic data from top importer China weighed. At 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in March gained 0.1% to $76.25 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.1% to $73.37 a barrel. The crude benchmarks had slumped more than 1% on Wednesday, but trading ranges, and volumes, are likely to be limited throughout Thursday with the US market closed to honor former President Jimmy Carter, ahead of a state funeral later in the session. Chinese inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, remained unchanged in December, while the producer price index shrank for a 27th consecutive month, data showed on Thursday. The reading pointed to limited improvement in China’s prolonged disinflationary trend, even as the government doled out its most aggressive round of stimulus measures yet through late-2024. China is the world’s biggest oil importer, and has been a key source of anxiety for crude markets. Traders fear that weak economic growth in the country will eat into oil demand. The country is also facing potential economic headwinds from the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US, as Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on Beijing. US oil product inventories rise sharply U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories grew substantially more than expected in the week to January 3, government data showed on Wednesday. Gasoline inventories grew 6.3 million barrels against expectations of 0.5 mb, while distillates grew 6.1 mb on expectations of 0.5 mb. Overall crude inventories also shrank less than expected, at 0.96 mb, against expectations of 1.8 mb. The build in product inventories marked an eighth straight week of outsized product builds, and spurred concerns that demand in the world’s biggest fuel consumer was cooling. While cold weather in the country spurred some demand for heating, it also disrupted holiday travel in several areas. EIA data also showed that US crude oil imports from Canada rose last week to the highest on record, ahead of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump's plans to levy a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Canada has been the top source of U.S. oil imports for many years, and supplied more than half of the total U.S. crude imports in 2023. Strength in the dollar also weighed on crude prices, as the greenback shot back up to more than two-year highs on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A strong dollar pressures oil demand by making crude more expensive for international buyers.
Crude Oil Market Traded Higher, Supported by Increased Winter Fuel Demand -- The oil market on Thursday traded higher as the market was supported by increased winter fuel demand, shrugging off the latest weekly inventory reports showing large builds in product stocks. The market traded lower in overnight trading and posted a low of $72.84 in follow through selling amid the EIA weekly petroleum stocks report showing large builds in distillate and gasoline stocks. However, the market bounced off its low and rallied higher as a cold snap drives heating oil demand. The crude market retraced more than 50% of its move from Wednesday’s high to today’s low as it traded to $74.26 by mid-day. The market gave up some of its gains and traded mostly sideways during the remainder of the session. The February WTI contract settled up 60 cents at $73.92. The market posted a high of $74.28 in the post settlement period. The March Brent contract settled up 76 cents at $76.92. The product market ended higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.75 cents at $2.3782 and the RB market settling up 1.81 cents at $2.0283. JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to increase by 1.4 million bpd year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere. Citi raised its average Brent price forecast for the first quarter from $65/barrel to $71/barrel as Chinese buyers have pulled back more than expected on buying Iranian oil. It also raised its WTI price forecast for the first quarter to $67/barrel. It said it maintains its overall bearish 2025 view, with Brent prices falling to $60s/barrel from the second quarter amid larger than usual seasonal stock builds. BNP Paribas in a research note to clients warned that “…crude prices have risen too much too soon” and Brent, currently above $76 per barrel, will likely “fall back to the low $70s” once seasonal refinery maintenance begins. Bank of America analysts are forecasting Brent crude oil prices will average just $65 per barrel in 2025 as a result of new oil production from non-OPEC countries continuing to grow faster than global oil demand. The bank noted production gains from Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway will lead the gains in new supply. Kinder Morgan reported on Wednesday it had shut down two Southern California-area refined product pipelines as a result of power outages in the area due to the ongoing several wildfires in the area. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center noted Thursday that a La Nina event has finally developed in the equatorial Pacific. It noted ocean surface temperatures have dropped by 0.9F degrees below normal across parts of the Pacific. Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center noted though there is a 60% chance it will likely fade by the March, April and May time frame.
Oil settles up 1% as cold weather in US, Europe drives winter fuel demand (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as cold weather gripped parts of the United States and Europe, boosting winter fuel demand. Brent crude futures settled up 76 cents, or 1%, at $76.92 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 60 cents, or 0.82%, to $73.92. On Wednesday, both benchmarks fell more than 1%. Thursday's rise is "definitely winter fuel demand kicking in here in the U.S.," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Parts of east Texas up to west Virginia were under a winter storm warning on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service, covering large swathes of Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky. Ultra-low sulfur diesel futures were trading at around $2.38 a gallon, their highest since Oct. 8, according to data from LSEG. JP Morgan analysts estimate that for the United States, Europe and Japan, for every degree Fahrenheit the temperature drops below its 10-year average, there is an increase of 113,000 barrels per day (bpd) in demand for heating oil and propane "as teeth-chattering temperatures prompt consumers to crank up their heat." Extreme winter conditions can lead to disruptions in oil supplies as freezing temperatures may cause temporary freeze-offs and production cuts, JP Morgan analysts said. "Right now it appears that the ice will stay north of refinery row along the U.S. Gulf Coast, but power outages will be a concern as heavy rain and wind comes along for the ride," TACenergy's trading desk wrote on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market structure in Brent futures is indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing. The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia's economy this week, according to a U.S. official. The administration is trying to bolster Ukraine's war effort against Russia before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. A key target of sanctions so far has been Russia's oil industry. The dollar strengthened further on Thursday. Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's planned policies and fiscal stimulus from China,
Oil jumps more than 4% on concern over more sanctions on Russia - Oil prices rallied more than 4% on Friday to reach their highest levels since October as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from more sanctions on Russia. Brent crude futures gained $3.50, or 4.6%, to $80.42 a barrel by 1422 GMT, reaching $80 a barrel for the first time since Oct.7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $3.57, or 4.8%, to $77.49. The United States will impose some of the harshest sanctions on the Russian oil industry to date, designating 180 vessels, dozens of traders, two major oil companies and some top Russian oil executives, a document seen by Reuters said. The document, purported to be from the U.S. Treasury, was being circulated among traders in Europe and Asia. Reuters could not verify the veracity of the document. Ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, expectations have been mounting that President Joe Biden’s administration will tighten sanctions against Russia and Iran, at a time when oil stockpiles remain low. “That would be the farewell gift of the Biden administration,” \. Existing and possible further sanctions, as well as market expectations of draws on fuel inventories because of cold weather, are driving prices higher, he added. The U.S. weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and are likely to continue to experience a chillier than usual start to the year. “We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by … demand for heating oil, kerosene and LPG,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Friday. The premium on the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand. Inflation worries are also boosting crude oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said. Investors are concerned about Trump’s planned tariffs, which could drive inflation higher. A popular trade to hedge against rising consumer prices is through buying oil futures. Oil prices have rallied despite the U.S. dollar strengthening for six straight weeks, making crude oil more expensive outside the United States.
Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions (Reuters) - Oil prices rallied nearly 3% to their highest in three months on Friday as traders braced for supply disruptions from the broadest U.S. sanctions package targeting Russian oil and gas revenue. President Joe Biden's administration imposed fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders and ports, aiming to hit every stage of Moscow's oil production and distribution chains. Brent crude futures settled at $79.76 a barrel, up $2.84, or 3.7%, after crossing $80 a barrel for the first time since Oct.7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $2.65, or 3.6%, to settle at $76.57 per barrel, also a three-month high. At their session high, both contracts were up more than 4% after traders in Europe and Asia circulated an unverified document detailing the sanctions. Sources in Russian oil trade and Indian refining told Reuters the sanctions will severely disrupt Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China. "India and China (are) scrambling right now to find alternatives," . The sanctions will cut Russian oil export volumes and make them more expensive, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Their timing, just a few days before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, makes it likely that Trump will keep the sanctions in place and use them as a negotiating tool for a Ukraine peace treaty, Staunovo added. Oil prices were also buoyed as extreme cold in the U.S. and Europe has lifted demand for heating oil, "We have several customers in the New York Harbor that have been seeing an uptick in heating oil demand," Hodes said. "We have seen a bid in other heating fuels as well," he added. U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures , previously called the heating oil contract, rose 5.1% to settle at $105.07 per barrel, the highest since July. "We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by ... demand for heating oil, kerosene and LPG," JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Friday.
Oil touches $80 per barrel as sweeping sanctions against Russia rattle markets - Oil prices jumped to a three-month high on Friday, with traders digesting new sweeping sanctions against Russia as the Biden administration tries to cut off Moscow from crude revenue amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) rose more than 3.5% to settle at $76.57 per barrel while Brent crude futures (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, briefly hit $80 before settling at $79.76, the highest level since October. More than 180 vessels, two oil companies, traders, insurers, and top Russian executives were named in the sanctions. "The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia’s key source of revenue for funding its brutal and illegal war against Ukraine,” Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen said in a statement. Oil prices were already on an upward trend since late December, with traders uncertain over President-elect Donald Trump's policy toward Iran. Tehran currently produces more than 3 million barrels of crude per day. "News continues to filter in about [the] Trump administration's hard stance on Iran that may come very quickly," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "Add in the freezing temps across most of the US, along with shrinking storage numbers, and crude has now become a new 'fund favorite,'" he added. Crude oil prices jumped to a three-month high on Friday. · JPMorgan analysts said global oil demand is expected to remain strong through January due to colder-than-expected weather in the Northern Hemisphere "boosting heating fuel consumption" and early travel activities in China for the country's Lunar New Year holiday. Despite Friday's sharp rise, many analysts expect that oil prices will move lower this year than in 2024. "Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, a combination of bearish factors will likely keep oil prices structurally low in 2025, with a likely price range of $60-$80 per barrel for Brent spot crude oil. That would be below the $70-$90 per barrel range that dominated 2024," Eurasia Group wrote in a note on Thursday.
The Race Is On Between West And East For Control In Syria - Following the surprise removal on 8 December of President Bashar al-Assad after 53 years of his family’s rule in Syria, long-dormant plans in the U.S. are being dusted off about what will happen next there and who will control it. The plans were drawn up in anticipation that Bashar al-Assad would fall soon after July 2011, a senior energy security source who worked closely with the administration of then-U.S. President Barack Obama exclusively told OilPrice.com.“At that point [when defectors from the Syrian army formed the Free Syrian Army and began an armed conflict across the country], Washington was certain that he [al-Assad] would fall in a matter of weeks, so they expedited the existing planning for that contingency, as did Russia and Iran, and the European Union too,” he said. “The plans for each included options to support its [Syria’s] production of oil and gas as this was a key source of its revenues,” he said.“These were to run in parallel with, and support, whichever group finally came out on top after he [al-Assad] was removed from the picture,” he added. At the time of the outbreak of hostilities in 2011, Syria had been producing around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from proved reserves of 2.5 billion barrels. For a long period before that – prior to the recovery rate dropping off due to a lack of enhanced oil recovery techniques being employed at the major fields -- it had been producing nearly 600,000 bpd. Europe imported at least US$3 billion worth of oil per year from Syria up to the beginning of 2011, and many European refineries were configured to process the heavy, sour ‘Souedie’ crude oil that makes up much of Syria’s output, with the remainder being the sweet and lighter ‘Syrian Light’ grade.Most of this – some 150,000-bpd combined – went to Germany, Italy, and France, from one of Syria’s three Mediterranean export terminals: Banias, Tartus, and Latakia. As an adjunct to this, a multitude of international oil companies were operating in Syria’s energy sector, including the UK’s Shell, Petrofac and Gulfsands Petroleum, France’s then-Total, the China National Petroleum Corporation, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp, Canada’s Suncor Energy, and Russia’s Tatneft and Stroytransgaz. Syria’s gas sector was at least as vibrant as its oil one, with proved reserves of 8.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, and around 316 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of dry natural gas produced.After the fighting began in earnest in 2011, the first of the three major options to support the Syrian energy and financial infrastructure for whichever group took over was from the U.S.This involved moving gas from Qatar through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, then through Syria whereupon it could be moved into Turkey and sold on in the rest of Europe, if resources allowed. The European option involved United Nations peace-keeping monitors in Syria, bringing in hydrocarbons industry experts from the UN Security Council member states, and letting the Qatar-Syria-Turkey, and Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey, pipelines develop organically over time. The Russian option focused on resuscitating the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, moving Iranian, and later Iraqi and Syrian gas into Europe. However, as al-Assad survived the initial phases of the uprising – crucially supported by the Russian military -- he went with the Russian energy and financial option focusing long term on the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plans shorter-term on the build-out of Syria’s oil and gas infrastructure.In 2017 this was formalised in a memorandum of understanding that encompassed 40 energy projects, plus the full reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Aleppo thermal plant, the installation of the Deir Ezzor power plant, and the expansion of capacity of the Mharda and Tishreen plants, with a view to re-energising Syria’s power grid and restoring the main control centre for the grid back to Damascus.Consequently, it was little surprise that early on after al-Assad fled to Moscow a month ago, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed that his country had been in direct contact with the radical Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), about the future of its energy projects, and of its key military bases across Syria as well. These comprise the naval base at Tartus – Russia’s only Mediterranean port, its Khmeimim air force base near Latakia, and its huge listening station nearby. Aside from these prized assets,there are three other reasons why Syria remains so crucial to Russia’s core geopolitical strategy in the Middle East and globally, as fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order.
- First, it is the biggest country on the western side of the Shia Crescent of Power that Russia had been meticulously developing for years as a counterpoint to the U.S.’s own sphere of influence centred then on Saudi Arabia (for hydrocarbons supplies) and Israel (for military and intelligence assets).
- Second, it offers a long Mediterranean coastline from which Russia can send oil and gas products – or anything else it wanted – from itself or from its allies (notably Iran) for export into major oil and gas hubs in Turkey, Greece and Italy or into Africa.
- And third, it highlighted to other countries in the Middle East and beyond Russia’s willingness and ability to act decisively on the side of the autocratic dynasties across the region.
Aside from denying Russia all these direct benefits (and doing the same for China indirectly) – which has enormous value in itself -- the U.S. and its allies also understand the key role that Syria was to play logistically for Russia’s plans to expedite Iran’s long-desired ‘Land Bridge’ and for China’s broader ambitions for its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI).
Erdogan says Turkey ready to intervene to prevent any division of Syria -Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday he would order an intervention to prevent any splintering of Syria, a warning aimed particularly at the country’s Kurdish forces.“We cannot accept under any pretext that Syria be divided and if we notice the slightest risk we will take the necessary measures,” the Turkish head of state said, adding that “we have the means.” Erdogan’s warning is the latest aimed at the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces and to the United States, which backed the SDF’s offensive against ISIS.Saying there is no room for “terror” in Syria, Erdogan said that “should the risk present itself, we could intervene in one night.”At least 100 people died in fighting over the weekend between pro-Turkish factions and the Kurdish-dominated People’s Protection Units (YPG), the backbone of the SDF.Ankara considers the YPG to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been in an armed struggle with the Turkish state since the 1980s and is classified by Turkey and its Western allies as a terrorist movement.Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had said that “the elimination of the PKK/YPG is only a matter of time,” raising the possibility that the movement could join the Syrian government and lay down its arms. But he warned that Western countries should not use the threat of ISIS as “a pretext to strengthen the PKK.”
Over 100 Killed as Fighting Between North Syria Kurds, Turkey-Backed Fighters Escalates -Since the Syrian regime change, there has been almost constant fighting between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Kurdish SDF. That fighting is escalating precipitously, with over 100 combatants killed over the last 48 hours, and no signs of the fight slowing down.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 85 SNA fighters killed in that span of time, along with 16 SDF fighters. Turkey’s own Defense Ministry claimed they had “neutralized” 32 Kurds across the north, but didn’t offer specific details.Turkey and its SNA have taken virtually the whole area around Manbij, the initial focus of this offensive, but have since moved on to attacking the Tishreen Dam and Kobane. It is expected they’ll also attempt to take al-Tabqa, giving them a route to attack the major city of Raqqa.Most of the casualties in the last 48 hours were in fighting around Kobane, and the SDF has reported that they have repelled all the attacks on that area. It doesn’t seem likely that’s going to end the matter, however.Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the “revolution” in Syria marks the end for Kurdish “separatist terrorists.” He said he believes the new Islamist government will move against the Kurds, and that they will also face “Turkey’s iron fist.”Turkey and the SNA heavily backed the regime change, even though it led to the installation of al-Qaeda-linked Islamists in power. Turkey has long believed that a Syria dominated by Sunni Arabs would crack down harder on the autonomous ambitions of the Kurds.The US has so far not gotten directly involved, though Turkey is demanding they stop supporting the Kurds. US forces have recently begun setting up a base in Kobane as well, suggesting direct US involvement is going to happen sooner rather than later.Beyond backing the SNA offensive against the SDF, Turkey has alsolaunched artillery attacks from the city of Jarabulus against Tishreen Dam, and drone strikes against a house on the outskirts of Kobane. A Turkish drone was also reported to have destroyed a vehicle near Tishreen Dam, though no casualties were reported there.
280 Dead in Heavy Turkish-backed Fighting Over Northern Syria’s Tishreen Dam - While much of the fighting between the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Kurdish SDF has centered on the cities of Manbij and Kobani, the largest focus in recent days has been the Tishreen Dam, a major hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates River.According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, some 280 people have been killed so far in the battle over the dam. The split is 199 SNA fighters, 56 SDF fighters, and 25 civilians, including five women and two children.Together with the Taqba Dam further east down the Euphrates River, Tishreen Dam provides approximately 90% of northeastern Syria’s electricity. Concerns are growing that Turkey is taking more and more water share on the river, while the river’s water level has been low in recent years.The SDF has bragged it foiled attacks on metro Manbij and the Tishreen Dam, reporting the SNA attacks were backed by both Turkish artillery and air support. There have been multiple reports of Turkish drone strikesaround the area in recent days.The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the SDF’s political ally, expressed concern about the continued attacks on Tishreen Dam, warning the dam has yet to be restored to full, normal operation. If continued Turkish attacks put it out of commission, AANES cautions this would be a humanitarian disaster in the region.Turkey remains confident about its gains in the area, despite not having yet taken the dam. Yesterday Turkey’s foreign minister stated that they believe it is only a matter of time before the YPG is wiped out. The YPG is the largest member organization making up the SDF.
Turkey FM: Only a Matter of Time Until Syrian Kurdish Fighters Are Wiped Out - Fighting and attacks continue to rage across northern Syria, as Turkey and their allies in the self-described Syrian National Army (SNA) attack Kurdish forces from the US-backed SDF. Strikes and clashes are reported in multiple areas. SNA forces attacked areas south of Manbij and near the Tishreen Dam. Turkish artillery forces attacked areas around the city of Kobani, and further to the east, there were four Turkish drone strikes against Kurdish forces in the Raqqa Province. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke at a news conference in Ankara on Monday, saying the situation is changing inside Syria and it is “only a matter of time” before Kurdish militant groups there are totally wiped out.Fidan warned western nations against continuing to support the Kurds, insisting that they were using ISIS “as an excuse to embolden the PKK,” a banned Kurdish faction in Turkey.Turkey has been demanding the US stop backing the SDF recently, and indeed have been for years. Turkey’s official narrative claims the PKK and the YPG are effectively the same organization. The YPG is the largest faction inside the SDF.There have been reports since late last week that the US is in the process of establishing a military base in Kobani to support the Kurds. Over the weekend the Pentagon said there were “no plans” to set up such a base and a spokesperson claimed not to know where the reports came from. Despite this denial, reports of convoys full of US military construction equipment heading into Kobani continue to emerge. Clearly images and sightings of the convoy are where the reports are coming from. While Turkey keeps demanding everyone else back away from support for the SDF, Turkish officials are virtually uniformly upbeat about the military prospect of defeating them, and soon. There were reports of Turkeyclaiming effective victory in Manbij in the past week, and the increased focus further east on Kobani and even the Raqqa Province underscores their intention to expand deeper into the SDF’s territory.
Fighting Rages as Kurdish SDF Suggests US, French Troops in Northern Syria - Heavy fighting continues to be reported across north-central Syria today,with at least 37 combatants killed today alone in fighting in the area around Manbij. The fighting involves the Turkish-backed SNA and the US-backed Kurdish SDF.The SNA, with Turkish air and artillery support, have been pushing against Kurdish territory for weeks, and Turkey has recently threatened direct military action to ensure the defeat of the SDF.The SDF has suggested that US and French troops could be deployed to secure the northern Syrian border. Co-chair for Foreign Affairs in Syrian Kurdistan’s administration Ilham Ahmed said that they could help establish a demilitarized zone and help them improve relations with Turkey.Turkey, however, has promised to wipe out the Kurdish SDF’s largest constituent group, the YPG. The US has not taken a position on the idea of deploying troops, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday he believes Turkey has “legitimate concerns” about the Kurdish PKK.The PKK is a banned Kurdish group in Turkey, but Turkish officials have presented the YPG as effectively the same organization. In practice, the PKK and YPG have strong ideological similarities, though they are distinct groups.The US has been reported to be setting up a military position inside Kobani, though the Pentagon has denied that they plan a military base in the city, which is one of those Turkey and the SNA intend to invade. Turkey has been shelling the area around Kobani in recent days.In addition to fighting over Manbij and Kobani, fighting continues at the Tishreen Dam. The SNA, backed by Turkey and with support from the new Syrian Islamist government have been throwing troops at the Dam for over a week, and reports are that they also intend to move on and attack the Tabqa Dam, another SDF-controlled dam downriver from Tishreen. The dams are the primary source of electricity generation in northeastern Syria, and control of them is considered strategically important. Kurdish officials have warned that recent attacks on Tishreen Dam put the dam at structural risk, and could cause humanitarian problems if it is put out of operation.
Israeli Troops Beat, Arrest French Journalist As They Expand South Syria Presence - Israeli troops continue to advance deeper into southern Syria, particularly in the Quneitra Governate, where they are occupying a growing amount of territory and have been expelling Syrian civilians from the area. Foreign media has been trying to offer more and more coverage of those operation.French journalist Sylvain Mercadier has been among those in Quneitra covering the Israeli invasion, but was beaten by Israeli troops and captured today alongside his Syrian lawyer. Israeli officials claimed the journalist had gotten “too close” to the Israeli troops in the village of El Hmidaiah.Mercadier has reportedly been released after five hours in Israeli custody, blindfolded and on his knees. Israeli troops called him a “mercenary,” and confiscated his camera memory cards. They also reportedly took $200 in cash from his lawyer.El Hmidaiah is on highway 7 between the towns of Quneitra and Khan Arnabeh. It has been a topic in recent media reports, as Israel has occupied the village, expelled the civilian population, and has destroyed possessions in multiple homes, including reportedly burning Qurans. They have also set up barricades and closed highway 7 in the area.There are also reports of Israeli troops forcing their way deeper into the town of Ba’ath. One resident reported that Israeli troops forced him to enter the cultural center first during one of their raids, and that they had smashed up the doors in the center, along with damaging electronic equipment. The photograph of Israeli troops in Ba’ath, ironically, came from Mercadier himself, and was taken before he was “arrested.”
Israel Plans Long-Term Occupation of New Zone Inside Syria - Though Israel was very supportive of the HTS regime change in Syria last month, Tel Aviv is now using that regime change as a pretext for open-ended occupation of more Syrian territory, above and beyond the occupied Golan Heights.New reports citing unnamed senior Israeli officials express “shock” at Western nations embracing the Islamist leaders of post-Assad Syria, and accuse them of turning a blind eye to hypothetical future risks Syria could pose.According to these officials, Israel’s plan is to create an occupied “control zone” inside Syria, stretching out 15 km from the already-occupied Golan Heights. This, they say, would prevent any future rocket fire against the Heights.In addition to this expanded military occupation, Israel intends to have a 60-km deep “sphere of influence” in Syria under the control of Israeli intelligence agencies. The claim is this would prevent future threats from developing. Israel invaded the demilitarized zone between the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria almost immediately upon the regime change. While Israeli troops have steadily moved deeper and deeper into southern Syria’s Quneitra and Daraa Province, it is only now that a potential permanent occupation of these areas is being talked about. Israel has long considered its occupation of the Golan Heights since 1967 as permanent. While the international community overwhelmingly doesn’t recognize this, Israel annexed the Heights, and President Trump endorsed that annexation in 2019..The Golan Heights annexation was supposedly a strategic matter, but the seizure of new territory overlooked by the Heights is based on the pretext of a “threat” posed by a new government that openly says it wants to be on positive terms with Israel.“No one can guarantee that they will not eventually turn against us” appears to be the sum total of Israel’s new justification for the territory seizure. Given Israel’s overt hostility toward the Islamist government since the takeover, it’s hard to see Israeli leadership continuing to talk of “cordial” relations with the occupying power.Israel was long hostile to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and took credit for his ouster in favor of al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Still, being hostile to whomever is in power in Syria seems to be the underlying policy and the justification for continued military action on Syrian soil.
As Israel Flouts Lebanon Ceasefire, DM Says Deal May Be Scrapped Entirely -- With just a few weeks left in the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, it seems increasingly that not only will the war resume after that, but the ceasefire may not last, even in pretense, for the whole 60 days. Israel continues to commit dozens of violations daily, attacking southern Lebanon and invading new towns that they hadn’t occupied during the war itself. Maroun al-Ras and Burj al-Mukuk were the latest areas to be taken by Israeli troops.Ironically, Israeli DM Israel Katz is claiming that the main ceasefire threat is Hezbollah not fulfilling requirements, and that “Israel will be forced to act.” Since they keep attacking targets in Lebanon throughout the ceasefire, it’s not clear what this would actually change, beyond rhetoric. It’s increasingly likely that Israel won’t leave Lebanon within the 60 days, and indeed it is being reported Israel intends to inform the US of its intentions to stay in Lebanon past the deadline. They also will inform the US that they’ve decided that Lebanese civilians cannot be allowed to return to the border villages. Israel has been demolishing towns and villages in the border area, and has warned civilians to stay out. Israel’s violations of the ceasefire have persisted throughout. Within just hours of the ceasefire taking effect, Israeli troops were shooting at Lebanese journalists in Khiam. The violations are larger and more flagrant these days, however.The UNIFIL peacekeepers have issued a statement slamming Israel for a “flagrant” violations of the ceasefire this weekend, noting that Israeli military bulldozers demolished UN property, including a UNIFIL observation post and one of the barrels near Labbouneh. The barrels were put out specifically to mark the line across which Israel is supposed to withdraw its forces by 60 days.That withdrawal seems like it’s not going to happen at any rate, but demolishing the barrels seems a bit more obvious a step in that direction than most of what Israel has done, which they’ve couched as reactions to civilians “violating” the ceasefire by trying to return to their homes.Last week, Hezbollah said its intentions were to remain “patient” and not react to Israel’s violations during the ceasefire, warning that troops that don’t leave by the 60-day deadline would be treated as an occupying force.Hezbollah figure Naim Qassem is now warning that their patience may not last a full 60 days and continued Israeli violations may lead to Hezbollah reacting to Israel soon.
Israel's Smotrich Calls for Major Destruction in the West Bank - On Monday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for massive destruction in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, saying several cities should look like Gaza’s Jabalia.“Funduq, Nablus, and Jenin must look like Jabalia,” Smotrich wrote on X. The Israeli military has almost completely destroyed the Jabalia refugee camp as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza.Smotrich’s call for escalation in the West Bank came after a shooting attack killed three Israeli settlers, including two women, near an illegal settlement. “The terrorism in Judea and Samaria and the terrorism from Gaza and Iran is the same terrorism – and it must be defeated,” Smotrich, a settler himself, wrote on X.“Those who trust the Palestinian Authority to maintain the security of Israeli citizens wake up to a morning when terrorists are again slaughtering Jewish residents,” he added.Smotrich said the Palestinian West Bank cities need to look like Jabalia so “Kfar Saba does not become Kfar Aza, God forbid,” referring to a central Israel town and a Gaza border town hit by Hamas on October 7.
Israeli Attacks Kill 88 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Sunday that Israeli attacks killed at least 88 Palestinians and wounded 208 over the previous 24-hour period as Israel has stepped up its bombing of the besieged enclave in recent days.Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that Israeli attacks across Gaza killed over 200 Palestinians over the past three days. “We are seeing women and children making up the vast majority of casualties,” said Hani Mahmoud, an Al Jazeera journalist reporting from Deir el-Balah, central Gaza.Also on Sunday, an eighth Palestinian baby died of hypothermia due to exposure from living in a tent. “He died because of the very cold weather. He slept next to me and in the morning I found him frozen and dead. I don’t know what to say,” the baby’s mother told Al Jazeera.Israeli strikes on Sunday included a drone strike near the southern city of Khan Younis that killed at least five Palestinians. The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported at least nine Palestinians were killed by Israeli shelling in central and northern Gaza.Since Thursday, Israel has significantly stepped up attacks on the Gaza Governorate, which includes Gaza City, raising fears that the Israeli military is moving its ethnic cleansing campaign, known as the “general’s plan,” further south.Since early October, the IDF has been conducting ethnic cleansing in the North Gaza Governorate, which includes the cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia. The campaign involved a total siege and orders for all civilians to leave under the threat of death, whether by bombing, shooting, or starvation. IDF soldiers have also been demolishing every building in sight, so civilians have nowhere to return.The general’s plan aims to cleanse all Palestinians from both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates so none remain north of the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land where the IDF has demolished most buildings and established military bases. Completing the ethnic cleansing will likely pave the way for the establishment of Jewish settlements in northern Gaza. WAFA reported that 45 Palestinians were killed by Israeli attacks in the North Gaza Governorate on Saturday. In October, a group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden that the US-backed Israeli onslaught has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, a total that includes indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.
'All Attempts Denied' - Israel Blocks Humanitarian Aid to Northern Gaza - Palestine Chronicle - Israel continues to deny the delivery of humanitarian aid to northern Gaza, the United Nations has said. “Three attempts by the United Nations to reach these areas over the past three days — that’s one on Saturday, one on Sunday and another one today — were all denied,” said Stephane Dujarric, the spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, in a press briefing on Monday. He said that across the Gaza Strip over the weekend, “37 UN-led humanitarian missions were planned. Twelve of these missions were facilitated, but 15 others were denied outright, nine were impeded, and one was canceled due to logistical and operational issues.” The Israeli army conducted a large-scale ground offensive in northern Gaza since October 5 last year, forcibly displacing thousands of Palestinians and preventing humanitarian aid including food, medicine and fuel from reaching the territory. The situation has left the remaining population on the verge of imminent famine. Dujarric also pointed out that armed looting of humanitarian convoys continues to be reported to the UN, in southern Gaza as well as in central Gaza. “Once again, we stress that there must be a stop to the looting of humanitarian supplies and that Israel must facilitate the flow of aid, fuel and commercial goods into and within Gaza swiftly and at scale through multiple entry points,” the spokesperson said. “We also call on the civilian police to be allowed to operate and thereby restore public order,” he emphasized.
Israel Attacks a 'Clearly Marked' World Food Programme Aid Convoy in Gaza - On Monday, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said Israeli forces fired on one of the group’s aid convoys in Gaza and strongly denounced the attack.The WFP said the convoy was “clearly marked” and that 16 bullets struck three vehicles that were carrying a total of eight aid workers. None of the aid workers were hurt in the attack.The WFP said the aid convoy had obtained the necessary clearances to operate in the area.“ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE: A [WFP] convoy, clearly marked & carrying 8 team members, was shot at by Israeli forces near Wadi Gaza despite prior clearances,” Cindy McCain, the executive director of the WFP, wrote on X.“We MUST have safe, secure access to continue delivering life-saving aid,” McCain, the widow of Senator John McCain, added in her post.The Israeli military has targeted aid workers throughout its genocidal war on Gaza. The WFP said the latest attack came after a missile struck a flour distribution warehouse in central Gaza run by a UN aid partner over the weekend, seriously injuring three humanitarian workers.The incident that gained the most attention was the Israeli strike that killed seven workers for the World Central Kitchen on April 1, 2024. The strike killed six foreign aid workers, including three British citizens and one American.Israel’s targeting of Palestinian aid workers has gotten much less attention. The UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said on Saturdaythat 263 of its employees have been killed by Israeli forces since October 7, 2023.
Gaza's Bitter Winter - 8 Palestinian Infants Die from Cold amid Ongoing Israeli Siege - Palestine Chronicle - The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced today that another infant has tragically died from the extreme cold, bringing the total number of children who have lost their lives due to the freezing temperatures to eight. This comes as Israel’s suffocating siege and ongoing military aggression against the Strip have now continued for over 15 months, leaving millions of Palestinians in unbearable conditions. The latest victim, identified as 35-day-old Yusuf Ahmad Anwar Kloub, succumbed to the harsh weather conditions in Gaza. His death underscores the dire situation faced by infants and vulnerable populations as winter sets in, with no relief in sight. In an interview with local media, Gaza Municipality spokesperson Hosni Mahna highlighted the increasing suffering of displaced families in the city as cold waves and heavy rainfall intensify. The blockade, which has greatly worsened since October 27, 2023, has compounded these conditions. Restrictions on the entry of essential goods, including fuel and cooking gas, have forced the population to rely on burning wood and debris from destroyed homes, further endangering their lives. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has raised alarms over the rising number of child fatalities in Gaza due to the cold and lack of shelter. A recent UNRWA report revealed that at least 7 newborns have already perished, and 7,700 other newborns are lacking critical life-saving care. Additionally, the World Health Organization (WHO) condemned Israel’s continuous assaults on health infrastructure, notably the repeated attacks on the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, which has been hit at least 50 times since the beginning of Israel’s ground invasion in October 2024. The hospital has been rendered nearly nonfunctional, adding to the already strained healthcare system. Amidst this crisis, the displaced population in Gaza — estimated at nearly 2 million people — is living in tents made of flimsy materials such as nylon and fabric, which provide little protection from the elements. Many of these displaced families were forced to leave their homes in northern Gaza, which were destroyed in Israeli airstrikes, and sought refuge in the southern regions of the Strip. The ongoing siege, supported by the US, has contributed to an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, with over 154,000 Palestinians — the majority of them women and children — either dead or injured since the genocidal war began on October 7, 2023. More than 11,000 people are still missing, adding to the trauma and despair that has gripped the population.
Lancet Study: Gaza Health Ministry Undercounted Death Toll By 41% - A new study published in the British medical journal The Lancet found that the Health Ministry in the Gaza Strip has significantly undercounted the number of Palestinians killed by Israel’s genocidal war.The study reviewed the period between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024, and found there were 64,260 “traumatic injury deaths” in that timeframe. At the end of June 2024, Gaza’s Health Ministry said there were 37,877 dead, an undercount of about 41%.As of October 2024, the study said the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli military action likely exceeds 70,000. The latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry put the death toll at 46,006.Explaining the methodology, the study said it used “capture-recapture methods to estimate total deaths from traumatic injury in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024. By combining three data lists—official hospital lists, an MoH survey, and social media obituaries—we provide an estimate of mortality that accounts for under-reporting.”The study only accounts for deaths caused by violence and not indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege and the destruction of medical and other civilian infrastructure.The figures coming from Gaza’s Health Ministry have been under significant scrutiny from Israeli officials and their supporters in the West. In the early days of the genocidal war, President Biden cast doubt on their accuracy, but a high-level US State Department official later acknowledged the real number of dead was likely higher than what the Health Ministry was reporting.The number of indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege is unclear but is likely significantly higher than the violent deaths. A letter written by experts and published by The Lancet in July 2024 estimated that if the war ended at that time, the conflict could account for 186,000 deaths, including 37,396 violent deaths (based on June 2024 Health Ministry figures) and indirect deaths.
Gaza’s True Death Toll Revealed to Be Much Higher, Study Finds - A recent study published in The Lancet estimates the death toll in Gaza to be 64,260, a figure 41% higher than the official reports from Gaza’s Health Ministry. The study, conducted by a UK-based team of researchers, analyzed data from multiple sources, including Gaza’s Health Ministry, online surveys, and social media obituaries, and concluded that the toll is significantly underreported by the official figures.As of June 30, 2024, Gaza’s Health Ministry reported 37,877 deaths resulting from the ongoing genocide. However, the new study estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 individuals died from traumatic injuries by that date. The study’s best estimate of 64,260 deaths shows that the official death toll was underreported by 41%. This figure represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, or approximately one in every 35 residents. The research found that 59% of the victims were women, children, and the elderly. Importantly, the figures only account for deaths from traumatic injuries and do not include fatalities from the lack of healthcare, food, or sanitation. The study also does not consider the thousands of missing persons, many of whom are believed to be buried under rubble. The researchers used a statistical technique called “capture-recapture,” which has been employed in past studies of war zones worldwide. The method involves cross-referencing multiple data sources to estimate the total death toll. The data for this analysis came from three lists: Gaza’s Health Ministry list of identified bodies, an online survey initiated by the Health Ministry where Palestinians reported the deaths of their relatives, and obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp. “We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and hospitals,” said lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on these overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” she added. Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, praised the researchers for their approach. “There is inevitably a lot of uncertainty when making estimates from incomplete data,” he said. “But it’s admirable that the researchers used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates. Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling,” he concluded. Despite its thorough methodology, the study acknowledges some limitations. The data does not account for the 10,000 Gazans believed to be buried under rubble, and the death toll might still be underestimated due to indirect causes of death such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation, or the spread of disease. These factors have become increasingly problematic in Gaza since October 2023.
Pope Francis Steps Up Criticism of Israel, Says Bombing of Civilians Is Unacceptable - On Thursday, Pope Francis offered more criticism of the Israeli bombing campaign and siege on the Gaza Strip, calling it “shameful” and saying the bombing of civilians is unacceptable. “I renew my appeal for a ceasefire and the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, where there is a very serious and shameful humanitarian situation, and I ask that the Palestinian population receive all the aid it needs,” the Pope said in a yearly address to diplomats that was delivered by an aide. “We cannot in any way accept the bombing of civilians or the attacking of infrastructures necessary for their survival. We cannot accept that children are freezing to death because hospitals have been destroyed or a country’s energy network has been hit,” the Pope added. The Catholic Church teaches that attacks on civilians and military operations that destroy whole cities are a grave crime. The Catechism of the Catholic Church states: “Every act of war directed to the indiscriminate destruction of whole cities or vast areas with their inhabitants is a crime against God and man, which merits firm and unequivocal condemnation.”Pope Francis also called for an end to the proliferation of destructive weapons. “This morning, I reiterate my appeal that ‘with the money spent on weapons and other military expenditures, let us establish a global fund that can finally put an end to hunger and favor development in the most impoverished countries so that their citizens will not resort to violent or illusory solutions, or have to leave their countries in order to seek a more dignified life,'” he said.Pope Francis’ latest criticism of Israel comes a few weeks after he denounced Israel’s “cruelty” in Gaza, which prompted a strong backlash from the Israeli foreign ministry.The Pope has kept in touch with the only Roman Catholic Church in Gaza, the Holy Family Parish in Gaza City. Back in December 2023, the church came under Israeli siege, and Israeli snipers killed two Palestinian Christian women, an incident Pope Francis condemned as “terrorism.”
ICJ: Ireland 'Intervenes' in South Africa's Genocide Case against Israel - Palestine Chronicle -- Ireland has officially intervened in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, asserting its stance on the violations of the Genocide Convention related to Gaza. Ireland has submitted a declaration to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel, the court announced on Tuesday.“Ireland, invoking Article 63 of the Statute of the Court, filed in the Registry of the Court a declaration of intervention in the case concerning Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip,” the ICJ said in a statement. Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin had previously announced that Ireland would join the case after receiving government approval to do so under the Genocide Convention. Article 63 allows any state party to a convention currently under judicial consideration the right to intervene, meaning the ICJ’s interpretation of the convention will also be binding on those states.In December 2023, South Africa filed a case against Israel, alleging violations of the Genocide Convention regarding Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Since then, several countries, including Nicaragua, Colombia, Libya, Mexico, Palestine, Spain, and Türkiye, have joined the case. Ireland confirmed its decision to intervene in the case on December 12, following the approval of its government. “There has been a collective punishment of the Palestinian people through the intent and impact of military actions of Israel in Gaza, leaving 44,000 dead and millions of civilians displaced,” Foreign Minister Micheál Martin said on Wednesday.“By legally intervening in South Africa’s case, Ireland will be asking the ICJ to broaden its interpretation of what constitutes the commission of genocide by a State,” Martin noted.He stated that Ireland was “concerned that a very narrow interpretation of what constitutes genocide leads to a culture of impunity in which the protection of civilians is minimized.”“Ireland’s view of the Convention is broader and prioritizes the protection of civilian life – as a committed supporter of the Convention, the Government will promote that interpretation in its intervention in this case,” Martin continued.The Irish cabinet also approved intervention in The Gambia’s case against Myanmar under the same Convention.Martin said intervening in both cases “demonstrates the consistency of Ireland’s approach to the interpretation and application of the Genocide Convention. ”The case accusing Israel of genocide was brought by South Africa Israel in December last year and culminated in the filing of the memorial at the UN’s highest court in The Hague in October.South Africa’s presidency said in a statement that the memorial “contains evidence which shows how the government of Israel has violated the genocide convention by promoting the destruction of Palestinians living in Gaza.”President Cyril Ramaphosa said in an address to the Algerian parliament last week that Israel’s “barbaric war” against the people of Gaza must end “and we demand that it should end now.”
Israel To Hide Identity of Soldiers Amid War Crimes Probes Abroad - The Israeli military has decided to hide the identity of its soldiers amid efforts by pro-Palestinian organizations to have Israeli soldiers investigated for war crimes while traveling abroad.Under the new policy, combat troops will now have their faces blurred and names hidden in any interviews they give to the media. Soldiers will also not be “linked” to a specific incident in Gaza. Only senior officers above the rank of brigadier general will have their faces and names shown.The new policy does not deal with the main source of evidence of IDF soldiers committing war crimes, which is their own social media posts. An Israeli soldier recently fled Brazil after a Brazilian court ordered an investigation into him for potential war crimes based on social media posts that showed the destruction of Palestinian homes.The charges against the IDF soldier who fled Brazil were brought forward by the Hind Rajab Foundation, named after a five-year-old girl killed by the IDF in Gaza. The foundation and other pro-Palestinian groups have filed 50 complaints in courts around the world against Israeli soldiers. According to The Times of Israel, the Israeli military has done little to stop soldiers from sharing such content online besides advising against it. Amid the global campaign against IDF soldiers, Israeli media published a guide to avoid being arrested overseas, which also advised against the social media posts.
Israeli Media Publishes Guide for IDF Soldiers To Avoid Arrest Abroad - The Israeli news site Ynet has published a guide for Israeli soldiers to help them avoid arrest for potential war crimes while traveling abroad.The guide comes after an Israeli soldier visiting Brazil fled the countryover an order from a Brazilian court to investigate him for potential war crimes based on social media posts that showed the destruction of Palestinian homes. The Hind Rajab Foundation, named after a five-year-old girl killed by the IDF in Gaza, said the soldier had participated in “massive demolitions of civilian homes in Gaza during a systematic campaign of destruction.”Israeli soldiers have been documenting war crimes in posts on social media, a practice the Israeli government is now advising against following the incident in Brazil. Israeli media has reported that pro-Palestinian organizations have filed 50 complaints in courts around the world against Israeli soldiers.The guide from Ynet, which quoted Nick Kaufmann, a defense lawyer at the International Criminal Court (ICC), also advised Israeli soldiers not to post as much on social media.“Soldiers should avoid posting photos or videos from their service, especially content showing destroyed buildings, even if there’s a military justification,” Kaufmann said.“Such posts violate operational security and could harm Israel’s image. Some countries might treat seemingly minor content, such as racist songs, as incitement to genocide,” Kaufmann added.He said the problem for Israeli soldiers was countries that have adopted the principle of “universal jurisdiction,” which allows the arrest, investigation, and potential prosecution of people accused of war crimes or other human rights violations in other countries.“The list of countries applying universal jurisdiction changes over time. Even friendly nations like the UK, France, and Spain have applied it in the past,” Kaufman said. Kaufman warned that the problem could get worse for Israeli soldiers after the conflict is over if foreign journalists are allowed into Gaza. “The threat may not diminish and could even intensify as Gaza opens to human rights groups and foreign journalists,” he said.
Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US ATACMS Into Russia - On Saturday, Russia said that Ukrainian forces fired more US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) into Russian territory and vowed there would be a response.The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired eight ATACMS into the Belgorod Oblast and that they were all downed by Russian air defenses. “The crews of the S-400 and Pantsir-SM air defense systems countered the attack and shot down all the ATACMS missiles,” the ministry said.The ministry added that the Ukrainian attack, “which is supported by Western curators, will be met with retaliation.”President Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russian territory despite Moscow making clear the step would risk nuclear escalation. Since then, Ukraine has launched several rounds of attacks on Russian territory using the missiles, which require intelligence from NATO countries to be fired.In response to the first round of ATACMS and Storm Shadows attacks, Russia test-fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine known as the Oreshnik. In December, after Ukraine fired more ATACMS into Russian territory, Russia launched a heavy bombardment of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which Moscow said was a response to the US missiles.Over the weekend, Ukraine also launched dozens of drones into Russia and started a new offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian troops first entered Kursk in August, an invasion of Russia that was launched with US weapons and Western intelligence support.
Indonesia officially joins BRICS, Brazil announces - Holding the rotating presidency of BRICS, Brazil announced Monday that Indonesia has officially joined the international bloc. BRICS, a geopolitical alliance established in 2009, was originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. In a press release, the Brazilian ministry congratulated Indonesia on joining the bloc. Brazil assumes BRICS leadership from Jan. 1, 2025, to Dec. 31, 2025. "The Brazilian government congratulates the government of Indonesia on its accession to the BRICS. Indonesia, which has the largest population and economy in Southeast Asia, shares with the other group members support for the reform of global governance institutions and positively contributes to deepening cooperation in the Global South, priority issues for Brazil's BRICS presidency," read the statement. Indonesia's candidacy was first approved by BRICS leaders at the Johannesburg Summit in August 2023. However, as Indonesia was preparing for general elections in February 2024, the nation formally communicated its intent to join the bloc only after the new government was formed. Currently, BRICS accounts for 40% of the world's population and 35% of global GDP, making it a significant player on the geopolitical stage. Its membership continues to grow, with 13 new nations joining as partner countries since October 2024. BRICS leadership has also welcomed four southeastern Asian nations into its ranks: Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand.
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