Fed's Kashkari upbeat on 2026, expects inflation to moderate (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday he is optimistic about the economic outlook and expects inflation to wane, but it is unclear by how much. “My outlook for the U.S. economy is one of pretty good growth going forward,” the official said in a virtual event. “I think inflation is heading down…The question is, is it going to be two and a half percent by the end of the year, something short of that, or something above that? I don't know.” Kashkari, who will have a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, did not offer any clear views on what he expects out of interest rate policy this year after last year's easing cycle that left the central bank's interest rate target range at between 3.5% and 3.75%. Fed officials have penciled in a quarter percentage point cut at some point this year but thus far they've given no signal when that might happen as they look to see how much inflation eases, amid a tender job market. Kashkari spoke as the Fed has come under deeper attack by the Trump administration, with the legal moves being viewed by the Fed as punishment for the central bank not taking orders from President Donald Trump. The White House is set to name a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell soon, ahead of the end of his term in May, and there is considerable anxiousness as to who will get the job and how independent they would be from the political process. "Whoever he or she is will have to make their best arguments to the rest of the committee on what monetary policy is appropriate to achieve the dual mandate that we are all charged by Congress to try to achieve. That person gets one vote, and, you know, the best argument wins," hinting that other Fed officials could outvote the chair if they saw fit. Kashkari said in a New York Times interview published earlier Wednesday that the Trump administration's attacks on the Fed were "really about monetary policy." The official said in his appearance that "we are really going to have to watch both sides of our dual mandate" this year, and noted that while it's critical to get inflation back to target, "if we get too aggressive with interest rates, that could hurt the labor market," which is also an undesirable outcome. Kashkari also said that he has yet to see a broad rise in financial distress although he noted many are pressured, and that could also be coming from inflation that's still too far above target.
Fed's Bowman 'continues to see downside risk' to labor market -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned that labor market conditions could weaken further and said the central bank should avoid signaling a pause in monetary policy.
Fed’s Bowman sees risks to job market, says Fed 'should be ready' to cut rates - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday that the central bank should be ready to cut interest rates further, citing "signs of fragility" in the job market. “Absent a clear and sustained improvement in labor market conditions, we should remain ready to adjust policy to bring it closer to neutral,” Bowman said in a speech at the New England Economic Forum in Foxborough, Mass. “We should also avoid signaling that we will pause without identifying that conditions have changed.” Bowman noted that even as inflation moves closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, she continues to see “signs of fragility” in the job market. She said the recent drop in job openings and softness in hiring, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, could translate to a larger increase in unemployment. Bowman warned that once companies shift from slowing hiring to cutting positions, layoffs could rise and the job market could deteriorate quickly. She noted that private-sector job gains averaged only about 30,000 per month in the fourth quarter, well below what she says is needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising. The lion’s share of the job gains came in the healthcare and social services industries, suggesting that hiring has continued to gradually soften since early last year. “We should continue to focus on risks to our employment mandate and preemptively stabilize and support labor market conditions,” Bowman said. The central bank, she said, should set interest rates proactively, looking forward based on forecasts, noting that placing too much weight on even the most recent data is backward-looking, which increases the risk of falling behind the curve. Bowman's sentiments stand in contrast to others on the Fed, including Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid, who have said they don't see a need for further "insurance" cuts to insulate the job market.
Cooling US Core Inflation Strengthens Case for Fed Rate Cuts | News Ghana - Cooling core inflation is strengthening the case for interest rate cuts, as the latest US price data points to easing price pressure across the world’s largest economy, according to the CEO of global financial advisory organization deVere Group. The comments from Nigel Green follow Tuesday’s release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed core inflation rising by just 0.2 percent on the month and 2.6 percent on an annual basis, both readings coming in below market expectations. The softer outcome reinforces growing evidence that underlying inflation pressures continue to moderate. Headline inflation rose by 0.3 percent in December, with the all items annual rate holding at 2.7 percent, in line with forecasts. While policymakers assess both measures, core inflation remains the preferred guide for long term price trends, making the data particularly significant for the direction of monetary policy. Green says the figures underline how quickly the inflation picture has changed. “Core inflation undershooting expectations sends a powerful signal that the disinflation process is gaining traction. Keeping rates at restrictive levels when underlying price pressures are easing risks doing unnecessary damage to growth.” The CPI data follows Friday’s employment report, which also showed signs of a softening labor market. Payroll growth slowed more than expected, while wage gains moderated, adding to the case that demand across the economy is cooling. “The inflation data and the jobs numbers now tell the same story,” explains the deVere CEO. “Price pressures are easing and the labor market is losing momentum. Policy needs to reflect where the economy is heading, not where it’s been.” The argument for easing now rests on three converging trends. Inflation no longer poses the same threat it did a year ago. Employment growth shows signs of fatigue. Financial conditions remain tight relative to the economic backdrop, keeping pressure on households and businesses. “Rates remain calibrated for an inflation battle that’s largely now been won,” Green says. “Maintaining this level of restriction risks turning a slowdown into something more severe.” Stock market futures rose following the report while Treasury yields were lower. The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2 percent annually, so the report provides some evidence that the pace of price increases is moving back to target but remains elevated. Shelter, a key element of stickiness, increased 0.4 percent, which was the biggest item for the monthly increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The category accounts for more than one third of the CPI weighting and was up 3.2 percent on an annual basis. Food prices jumped 0.7 percent for the month, though egg prices tumbled 8.2 percent and fell nearly 21 percent from a year ago after soaring previously. Other areas seeing increases included recreation, air fares and medical care. Some tariff sensitive categories including apparel also posted gains. However, household furnishings saw a 0.5 percent decrease as President Donald Trump backed off on threatened tariff increases for imports in that sector. The 1.2 percent increase for recreation was the largest monthly gain ever for the index in data going back to 1993, the BLS said. Higher borrowing costs continue to weigh heavily on consumers, particularly in housing, credit cards, and small business financing. While easing inflation offers relief at the checkout, tight monetary policy threatens to blunt those gains by suppressing confidence and investment. International markets also feel the consequences of prolonged US policy restraint. Elevated rates support a stronger dollar, tighten global financial conditions, and place added strain on emerging economies carrying dollar denominated debt. A shift toward easing would help stabilize capital flows and ease pressure across international markets. “The global economy is increasingly sensitive to US policy decisions. A move toward lower rates would support stability not only in America, but across the international financial system.” The report likely keeps the central bank on hold at least for the moment. Policymakers cut their benchmark rate three times in the latter part of 2025, bringing it to a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Markets expect them to stay on hold through the first half of 2026 as they assess the impact of the cuts on general economic conditions. Roughly 95 percent of futures market participants expect no change in rates at the Fed’s January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining sliver foresee a quarter point cut. Tuesday’s release brings the BLS current on inflation and employment after the government shutdown last year caused a suspension of data collection and reports. The BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations, creating noise in recent inflation readings. Investors now see the risk profile shifting. The dominant threat appears less about inflation reaccelerating and more about policy remaining too tight for too long. History shows that central banks often err by easing late rather than early, transforming manageable slowdowns into deeper downturns. “Every cycle carries the danger of acting after the damage is done. The data now offers a chance to move before growth stalls more sharply,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.
Federal Reserve hit with DOJ subpoenas in criminal probe over Chair Jerome Powell testimony -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday that the Justice Department subpoenaed the central bank Friday with the threat of a criminal indictment, the latest move in a yearlong pressure campaign from the Trump administration.Powell said the threatened indictment related to his testimony before the Senate in June about the renovation of Federal Reserve office buildings."No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law," Powell said. "But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure."Powell said the Justice Department's subpoenas were just the latest way for the administration to exert control over the Fed and its decisions about interest rates. Since before the start of his second term, President Donald Trump has demanded lower interest rates and has routinely attacked Powell and the central bank’s other top officials. The administration has ramped up that criticism as an affordability crisis hit consumers.The Fed cut interest rates three times last year."This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation," he said.Powell said the connection to his testimony and the headquarters renovation project, which some administration officials seized on last year, were "pretexts." “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president," he said. Powell indicated that the administration’s latest tactic would not lead to his departure from the Fed, which Trump has repeatedly called for. Powell said he would “continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.” In a phone call with NBC News, Trump said he knew nothing about the Justice Department probe and attacked Powell again."I don't know anything about it, but he's certainly not very good at the Fed, and he's not very good at building buildings," Trump said.
Jerome Powell says White House has threatened criminal indictment over Senate testimony -- — Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell accused the Trump administration of threatening him with a criminal indictment in an attempt to influence the independent central bank’s decisions on interest rates. Powell, in a statement released Sunday, said the U.S. Department of Justice served subpoenas Friday on the Fed related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June on renovations at the Federal Reserve. He called it a “pretext” designed to pressure him in his dispute with President Trump over the pace of cutting key interest rates. Powell has advocated a more cautious approach than what the president has pushed for. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell said. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.” In a statement to NewsNation, the DOJ said, “The Attorney General has instructed her US Attorneys to prioritize investigating any abuse of taxpayer dollars.” Usually, presidents make a marked effort to respect the independence of the Fed, which describes itself as “an independent government agency” and “ultimately accountable to the public and the Congress.” That includes avoiding directly asking them to change their decisions or paying visits to the Fed. Trump has consistently criticized Powell for slow-walking interest rate cuts and has accused the Fed chair of mismanaging renovations at the Federal Reserve. Powell has defended the project. His term as chairman ends later this year, but he serves on the Board of Governors until Jan. 31, 2028. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, criticized the Trump administration Sunday. “If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question,” he said on social media. “I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said news about the Justice Department’s against Powell “is the kind of bullying that we’ve all come to expect from Donald Trump and his cronies. Anyone who is independent and doesn’t just fall in line behind Trump gets investigated.” “Jay Powell and the Fed aren’t the reason Trump’s economy and his poll numbers are in the toilet. If he’s looking for the person who caused that he should look in the mirror,” he added.
GOP rushes to defend Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve from DOJ, extending breaks with Trump -Senate Republicans are rushing to defend Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from a Department of Justice (DOJ) criminal investigation that Powell says is politically motivated and aimed at undercutting the Fed’s independence. GOP lawmakers are challenging the Trump administration’s investigation of Powell a week after five Republican senators voted to advance a war powers resolution to bar Trump from taking military action against Venezuela without congressional authorization. The loudest warning shot against the White House came from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, who accused Trump’s advisers of deliberately trying to undercut the Fed’s independence and threatened to block the president’s nominees to the Fed until the investigation is “fully resolved.” He said the criminal probe into Powell’s testimony before Congress last year over the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington raises questions about the “independence and credibility of the Department of Justice.” It was a notable rebuke from a swing-state senator who voted to confirm both Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel early last year. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), another senior member of the Banking Committee, expressed frustration over the probe, which he warned could make it more expensive to borrow money. “Litigation between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch of the United States government is going to cause interest rates to go up, not down,” he predicted. “We need this like we need a hole in the head,” he fumed. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who spoke with Powell on Monday morning, backed up Tillis’s sharp criticism of the Justice Department and called on Congress to investigate whether the administration is attempting to coerce the Fed into cutting rates more dramatically. “After speaking with Chair Powell this morning, it’s clear the administration’s investigation is nothing more than an attempt at coercion,” Murkowski said in a statement. “If the Department of Justice believes an investigation into Chair Powell is warranted based on project cost overruns—which are not unusual—then Congress needs to investigate the Department of Justice.” “The stakes are too high to look the other way: if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the stability of our markets and the broader economy will suffer,” she warned. She said Tillis “is right” to hold up Trump’s nominees until the issue is resolved. Powell got an important boost Monday from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who warned that any investigation of Powell “better be real” and “better be serious.” Thune called for the matter to be wrapped up quickly to avoid undermining the central bank’s independence, something he and other Republicans fear could shake investors’ faith in U.S. Treasurys.
Trump administration probe of Fed's Powell sparks pushback (Reuters) - The Trump administration's decision to open a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell drew condemnation from former Fed chiefs and a chorus of criticism from key members of Trump's Republican Party on Monday, following an unusually sharp public rebuke from Powell calling the move a "pretext" to win presidential influence over interest rates.The investigation, revealed late on Sunday when Powell said the Fed had received subpoenas from the U.S. Justice Department, was approved and started by Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney in Washington and an ally of President Donald Trump, according to two sources with knowledge of the investigation. Neither Attorney General Pam Bondi nor Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche was briefed about the decision to subpoena the Fed last week, one of the sources added.Pirro, in a statement Monday evening, said the Justice Department took legal action because the Federal Reserve had ignored requests to discuss cost overruns in a project to renovate two historical buildings at its headquarters."This office makes decisions based on the merits, nothing more and nothing less," Pirro added on X. The threat of indictment, ostensibly focused on comments Powell made to Congress about the building renovation project, sent rates on longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds up, as investors parsed what a less independent Fed could mean for inflation and monetary policy.If amplified, such a market reaction could constrain Trump's efforts to reshape the Fed, considered the most influential central bank in the world and a cornerstone of the world financial system. A rise in long-term borrowing costs could also backfire against Trump's efforts to address broad concerns about "affordability."The independence of central banks, at least in setting rates in order to control inflation, is considered a central tenet of robust economic policy, insulating monetary policymakers from short-term political considerations and allowing them to focus on longer-term efforts to keep prices relatively stable. On Monday, former Fed chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan joined with former government economic policy leaders from both political parties in raising the alarm.
Fed's Miran dismisses inflation fears tied to Powell probe - Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran said he doesn't "really buy" the view that a potential indictment of Fed Chair Jerome Powell would affect the central bank's monetary policy.
Markets, lawmakers scramble amid DOJ inquiry into Fed -- Financial markets took a tumble Monday morning after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that he was the subject of a Justice Department inquiry concerning the central bank's headquarters renovation. Lawmakers and former Fed officials decried the move as political intimidation.
Pirro on Powell probe: ‘None of this would have happened if they had just responded to our outreach’ -- U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro claimed Monday that the Department of Justice’s probe into the Federal Reserve would not have happened “if they had just responded to our outreach.”“The United States Attorney’s Office contacted the Federal Reserve on multiple occasions to discuss cost overruns and the chairman’s congressional testimony, but were ignored, necessitating the use of legal process—which is not a threat,” Pirro wrote in a post on the social platform X.“The word ‘indictment’ has come out of Mr. Powell’s mouth, no one else’s,” she continued. “None of this would have happened if they had just responded to our outreach. This office makes decisions based on the merits, nothing more and nothing less.”Pirro added, “We agree with the chairman of the Federal Reserve that no one is above the law, and that is why we expect his full cooperation.”On Sunday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement that the Justice Department served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas and threatened a criminal indictment related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, when he discussed the estimated $2.5 billion renovations to the central bank headquarters in Washington.Appointed by President Trump in 2017, the president has berated Powell several times over the years since, calling him “numbskull,” “a dumb guy” and “an obvious Trump Hater.”When the Fed chair released his statement Sunday, he referenced Trump’s criticisms and said the investigation had been launched to retaliate against the central bank for continuing to set interest rates based on “evidence and economic conditions” rather than caving to the White House’s “political pressure and intimidation.”
Trump says furor over Powell probe won't delay Fed pick (Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump said he would announce his nomination to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell within "the next few weeks" despite the backlash over a Justice Department probe into the remodeling of the central bank's headquarters that has threatened his ability to secure a confirmation. President Trump Tuesday told reporters he would not delay announcing his pick to fill a new vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board despite threats from Republican Senators to block any Fed nomination until a recently-disclosed Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.
Lawmakers race to prevent partial government shutdown - Lawmakers are battling the clock as they work to push through the remaining appropriations bills ahead of the Jan. 30 shutdown deadline. The Senate is expected to take up a minibus appropriations package that would fund the Department of Justice, Department of Commerce, key science agencies and other related entities; the Department of Energy and water development; and the Department of Interior, Environmental Protection Agency and other related agencies. The package passed the House by a 397-28 vote last week. Even if the package clears the Senate and is signed by President Trump, Congress will still have to pass six more appropriations bills by the end of January to prevent a partial government shutdown. The House Appropriations Committee released a two-bill minibus package Sunday that would fund the Department of Treasury and agencies related to financial services, as well as the Department of State and national security programs. “Vision becomes direction with appropriations. It is where policy is given force, priorities are focused, and American mandates are implemented. With this package, we are advancing President Trump’s vision of a golden age defined by security, responsibility, and growth,” House Appropriations Committee Chairman Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in a statement. But the schedule for both chambers is far from ideal. This is the last week of the month that the House and Senate will be in session at the same time. Next week, the House will be in session while the Senate is on recess. The following week, the roles reverse, with the House on recess and the Senate in session. And various hiccups could potentially delay the bills’ passage in both chambers. Several GOP hard-liners in the House, for instance, nearly threatened to tank the procedural vote on the minibus package over their opposition to various earmarks in the legislation. House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said during a hearing last week that she is “confident we will be able to complete our work and avoid any kind of continuing resolution prior to the Jan. 30 deadline.” So far, lawmakers in both chambers have passed three out of the twelve appropriations bills needed to fund the government. The bipartisan minibus package that passed the House last week and will be taken up by the Senate contains another three bills. “This package rejects President Trump’s push to let our competitors do laps around us by slashing federal funding for scientific research by upwards of 50% and killing thousands of good jobs in the process,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement. “It protects essential funding for our public lands, rejects steep proposed cuts to public safety grants that keep our communities safe, and boosts funding for key flood mitigation projects.” The remaining six bills that must still be approved by Congress fund the Department of Defense; the Department of Treasury, the Federal Election Commission and other agencies related to financial services; the Department of Homeland Security; the departments of Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; the Department of State and national security programs; and the Department of Transportation, Department of Housing and Urban Development and several related agencies If lawmakers aren’t able to pass the remaining bills, they will need to pass a temporary stopgap measure, known as a continuing resolution, to fund the rest of the government. The House Rules Committee will meet this week to debate the two-bill minibus package funding the Department of State and the Department of Treasury. If it advances through the committee, the bill could come to the House floor as soon as this week. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas.) told reporters last week he had gotten some assurances from leadership on the process for the remaining six bills, without going into details.
Senate advances government funding measure as shutdown deadline looms The Senate voted overwhelmingly on Monday to advance a minibus appropriations package, taking a step toward funding another swath of government before the Jan. 30 deadline to prevent a partial government shutdown. The Senate voted 80 to 13 Monday evening to advance the package, which passed the House last week by an overwhelming margin of 397-28. The package covers funding for the departments of Commerce, Justice and Interior; sciences and related agencies; and energy and water projects. A Senate-crafted bill to fund the some of the same departments stalled on the Senate floor last month after Colorado Sens. John Hickenlooper (D) and Michael Bennet (D) objected to it in protest of plans by White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. Monday’s vote sets up another vote on Tuesday to proceed to the spending package, which Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he hopes to pass before the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. Bennet told The Hill that his problem with the appropriations package, which includes funding for the National Science Foundation, the entity that sponsors and provides grants to NCAR, remains unresolved. “Our issues have not been addressed,” he said. Hickenlooper said he wants to add language to the package to ensure that the atmospheric research center gets to spend the money that Congress already appropriated for it. “I haven’t budged,” he said. “Just spend the money that was appropriated for this fiscal year. I’m not asking for money.” “Finish what we’ve done,” he said. “It’s not just in Colorado, people are frustrated by the cuts to all science. … This will be the first time in decades … where we’ve back-trenched. We’re not spending as much money as we spent last year on research. That’s what creates innovation, that’s what creates job startups, that’s what creates jobs.” Thune, however, is unlikely to accept any changes to the bill, which would require it to be sent back to the House for approval before going to President Trump’s desk. There appears to be more than enough support for the package in the Senate to quash a filibuster and advance the bill to a vote on final passage. Senators will spend the rest of the week moving through the various procedural hurdles needed to get it across the finish line. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) praised the “result of months of work [and] bipartisan and bicameral negotiations.” She said it would reduce discretionary spending “while better focusing spending on the key priorities of the American people.” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the vice chair of the Appropriations panel, said the legislation would help Americans afford their electric bills, enjoy access to clean drinking water at home and prevent flooding in vulnerable areas around the country. Congress needs to pass a total of nine regular appropriations bills to fund the government before a Jan. 30 deadline. Once the pending three-bill minibus passes, Congress will need to knock out six more appropriations bills. Senate and House negotiators over the weekend reached a deal on another two-bill spending package to fund financial services, general government, national security, the Department of State and related programs. But they have yet to find a path for passing two of the biggest spending bills before the end-of-January deadline: the Defense appropriations and those for the departments of Labor and Health and Human Services. Those two bills account for approximately two-thirds of the annual discretionary federal budget.
Shrinking GOP majority puts Speaker Mike Johnson on the hot seat - Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) already fragile GOP majority is hanging by a thread, as the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and the departure of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) narrow the party’s razor-thin margin. LaMalfa’s death and Greene’s exit leave Johnson with a 218-213 majority in the House, allowing him to lose no more than two votes on any given bill, assuming all members are present and Democrats are unified in opposition. And Johnson is temporarily short a member as Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) recovers from a car crash following his release from the hospital last week. “If you have one or two more people in an accident and die, that’s a problem,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.). Unexpected absences of some Republicans from votes and bouts of resistance from both hard-liners and moderates, who have repeatedly bucked leadership and threatened to derail key bills, are another problem for Johnson. Fiscal hawks, for instance, threatened to tank a procedural vote on the bipartisan minibus appropriations package over their opposition to various earmarks. It wasn’t until GOP leadership offered concessions that the package advanced. “This really is a critical time, and it’s important that we as Republicans stick together and advance that agenda in the second year,” he said, referring to President Trump’s term. Republicans who haven’t hesitated in breaking with their party show no signs of changing their strategy, posing a challenge for Johnson. Several Republicans in recent months have joined Democrats in supporting discharge petitions to force votes on bills opposed by Johnson. The petitions are repeatedly succeeding because only a few Republican names are needed to reach the 218-signature mark. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) and Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) all endorsed a Democratic discharge petition on legislation to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years. Seventeen Republicans ended up voting for the bill when it came to the House floor last week. “I think the will of the country ought to be reflected on the House floor,” Fitzpatrick told The Hill. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) also led a discharge petition effort last year with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) to force a vote on a bill requiring the Department of Justice to release files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump who was initially opposed to the bill, ended up signing it into law.
Hegseth: Trump’s $1.5T defense budget request ‘a message to the world’ - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday declared President Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget a “message to the world” in its reestablishment of the U.S.’s military might. Speaking to employees at Lockheed Martin’s facility in Fort Worth, Texas, Hegseth declared that the Trump administration is “rebuilding our military,” and plans to increase the U.S. defense budget by more than 50 percent — from roughly $901 billion in fiscal year 2026 to $1.5 trillion in 2027. “We are rebuilding the arsenal of freedom,” the Defense chief said. “We had a historic budget last year, [and] I don’t know if you saw, the president announced the goal of $1.5 trillion for our national defense budget in 2027. That is a message to the world.” Trump last week pressed Congress to increase the defense budget, arguing it will allow the country to build its “dream military.” “After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,” Trump wrote last Wednesday in a post on Truth Social. “This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” he added. The figure, if approved by Congress, would be the largest Pentagon budget in history. The defense topline usually sits around $900 billion and has never cracked $1 trillion. Hegseth said the money will be used “wisely” by the Defense Department to “make sure we’re squeezing everything possible into the best capabilities in the world,” such as the Lockheed-made F-35 fighter jet. He also touched on Trump’s executive order last week that would cap defense contractor executive pay and limit dividends and stock buybacks, part of an effort to address cost overruns and delayed timelines in delivering weapons. “Defense Companies are not producing our Great Military Equipment rapidly enough and, once produced, not maintaining it properly or quickly,” the president wrote in a lengthy Truth Social post. At Lockheed, Hegseth said the defense industry is “not just about Wall Street and dividends and stock buybacks.” “It’s about the Warriors and what we can deliver as fast as possible to them…,” he continued, “President Trump’s deadly serious about this. He feels the urgency of the moment, and so do I.”
President Trump Posts Picture of Himself as 'Acting President of Venezuela' - President Trump on Sunday shared a picture of a fake Wikipedia page that described him as the “Acting President of Venezuela” as he continues to push the idea that the US is “running” the country following the attack to abduct President Nicolas Maduro.Trump has insisted that the real acting president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president, is willing to go along with his plan, which has received a cool reception from US oil companies. While Rodriguez has said she’s willing to cooperate with the US, her government has maintained a message of unity and defiance in the face of US aggression and continues to call for the release of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.“In these difficult times our country is experiencing, Venezuelans have once again demonstrated that our greatest strength is national unity and historical awareness,” Rodríguez said in a post on Telegram on Monday.“The collective response has been one of firmness, serenity, and determination to preserve peace, raise our voices for the release of President Nicolas Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores, and defend the constitutional order, which guarantees protection and social justice for our people,” she added.
US Seizes Fifth Oil Tanker Linked to Venezuela - US forces boarded and took control of an oil tanker in the Caribbean on Friday. The Olina is the fifth ship seized by the US in recent weeks. “In a pre-dawn action, Marines and Sailors from Joint Task Force Southern Spear, in support of the Department of Homeland Security, launched from the USS Gerald R. Ford and apprehended Motor/Tanker Olina in the Caribbean Sea without incident,” a statement from US Southern Command explained. SOUTHCOM claimed the raid was in defense of “our homeland by ending illicit activity and restoring security in the Western Hemisphere.”An oil industry source told The Guardian that the Olina left Venezuela last week after President Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped by US forces. The tanker later turned around and was sailing back to Venezuela when it was seized by US forces. President Donald Trump claimed that the Olina was seized in coordination with the interim government in Venezuela, led by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez. “Today, the United States of America, in coordination with the Interim Authorities of Venezuela, seized an oil tanker which departed Venezuela without our approval,” the President wrote on Truth Social. “This tanker is now on its way back to Venezuela, and the oil will be sold through the GREAT Energy Deal, which we have created for such sales.”Last week, the US seized a Russian-flagged tanker in the northern Atlantic. Russia’s Foreign Ministry also issued a statement, calling for the US to treat any Russian nationals on the crew “humanely” and for them to be allowed to return home as quickly as possible.
Trump Says He Could Keep Exxon Out of Venezuela After CEO Calls It 'Uninvestable' - President Trump has said that he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of his plans to plunder Venezuela’s vast oil resources after the CEO of the oil company suggested the country was “uninvestible.”Exxon CEO Darren Woods made the comments on Friday, when President Trump hosted a group of oil executives to discuss his plans for Venezuela. Before the meeting, Trump claimed that oil companies were ready to invest more than $100 billion rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, but he received no commitments.“We have a very long history in Venezuela. In fact, we first got into Venezuela back in the 1940s. We’ve had our assets seized twice,” Woods said at the meeting, referring to the nationalization of Venezuela’s oil industry in 1976 and the further nationalization of oil projects by Hugo Chavez in the early 2000s.“So you can imagine, to reenter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen here and what is the current state. If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, it’s uninvestable, and so significant changes have to be made,” Woods added.The Exxon CEO did add that he was “confident” those changes could be put in place by the Trump administration working with the Venezuelan government, but the president was still unhappy with his remarks.“I didn’t like Exxon’s response,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday night. “I’ll probably be inclined to keep Exxon out. I didn’t like their response. They’re playing too cute.”The one US oil company that said it’s ready to act is Chevron, the only US oil firm that continues to operate in Venezuela through joint ventures with the state oil company, PDVSA.“We have a path forward here very shortly to be able to increase our liftings from those joint ventures 100% essentially effective immediately,” Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson told Trump at the White House. “We are also able to increase our production within our own disciplined investment schemes by about 50% just in the next 18 to 24 months.”
US makes initial $500M Venezuelan oil deal, some proceeds held in Qatari bank - The Trump administration has completed its first Venezuelan oil sale, valued at $500 million, an administration official confirmed to The Hill on Wednesday. The official also said additional sales are expected in the coming days and weeks. Semafor first reported the deal, including that revenue from it is being held in bank accounts, including one in Qatar, that are controlled by the U.S. government. “President Trump brokered a historic energy deal with Venezuela, immediately following the arrest of narco terrorist Nicolás Maduro, that will benefit the American and Venezuelan people,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. “President Trump’s team is facilitating positive, ongoing discussions with oil companies that are ready and willing to make unprecedented investments to restore Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. President Trump is protecting our Western Hemisphere from being taken advantage of by narcoterrorists, drug traffickers, and foreign adversaries,” she continued. The oil deal is the first since the U.S. ousted Maduro, Venezuela’s former president, earlier this month. Trump quickly indicated U.S. oil firms would be involved in pumping Venezuela’s rich oil reserves following Maduro’s capture. Trump hosted the heads of numerous U.S. oil firms last week at the White House
Venezuela's Acting President Says She Held 'Productive' Phone Call With Trump - Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodriguez said on Wednesday that she held a “long, productive, and courteous” phone call with President Trump on Wednesday, a conversation that came less than two weeks after the US attack on Caracas to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro that killed more than 80 people.Rodriguez wrote on X that the call was “conducted within a framework of mutual respect, in which we addressed a bilateral work agenda for the benefit of our peoples, as well as pending matters between our governments.”Trump also spoke positively of the call, saying “tremendous progress” was being made. “We just had a great conversation today, and she’s a terrific person,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.The president had previously threatened Rodriguez with a fate worse than Maduro’s if she didn’t do the US’s bidding. While Rodriguez has called for cooperation with the US, she has also continued to call for the release of Maduro and has strongly condemned the US aggression against her country.Trump’s plan for the US to take over Venezuela’s oil industry received a cool reception from US oil executives, who were non-committal about the idea of investing in the country. For now, the US is forcing Venezuela to sell its oil through US-approved channels.A US official told Reuters on Wednesday that the US completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil under a deal with the Venezuelan government. The official said that revenue from the initial sale, about $500 million, is being held in US-controlled bank accounts.
US Seizes Sixth Venezuela-Linked Tanker - US forces have seized another oil tanker in the Caribbean, according to statements from the US military and US officials, as the Trump administration continues its blockade on Venezuela with the goal of controlling the country’s oil industry and exports. US Southern Command said that US Marines and sailors deployed from the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford seized the tanker named Veronica early Thursday morning. The command posted a video showing US forces descending onto the tanker.“The Veronica is the latest tanker operating in defiance of President Trump’s established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean, proving the effectiveness of Operation Southern Spear yet again,” SOUTHCOM said. Video of the seizure released by SOUTHCOM. The ship marks the sixth Venezuela-linked tanker the US has seized in recent months and the fourth since the US attack on Caracas to kidnap President Nicolas Maduro, which killed more than 80 people.Last week, after the US seized the fifth tanker, President Trump claimed the action was done in coordination with Venezuela’s government, which is currently led by Acting President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s vice president.“Today, the United States of America, in coordination with the Interim Authorities of Venezuela, seized an oil tanker which departed Venezuela without our approval,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last Friday. “This tanker is now on its way back to Venezuela, and the oil will be sold through the GREAT Energy Deal, which we have created for such sales.” A US official told Reuters on Wednesday that the US completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil under a deal with the Venezuelan government. The official said that revenue from the initial sale, about $500 million, is being held in US-controlled bank accounts.
Two Republicans flip, defeating war powers resolution after intense Trump pressure -Senate Republicans on Wednesday defeated a war powers resolution to block President Trump from using military force “within or against” Venezuela after two Republicans who voted last week to advance the measure reversed themselves and joined their leaders in quashing it. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) voted on Wednesday to support a point of order against the resolution after coming under intense pressure from Trump, who called for their ouster from the Senate after they defied him last week. Their sudden change of heart about the resolution underscores Trump’s tremendous ability to wield his influence over GOP lawmakers on big votes. The Senate voted last week to discharge the bipartisan resolution out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after five Republicans, including Hawley and Young, voted to do so. That action provoked an angry response from Trump who called on social media for the defeat of all five Republicans who broke with him. The president followed up with heated phone calls to those lawmakers. Hawley said earlier on Wednesday that he decided to withdraw his support from the resolution after Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured him that U.S. troops are not present in Venezuela and that the administration would seek congressional authorization before deploying U.S. troops to the country. Young told reporters right before the vote that he was swayed by Rubio’s pledge not to deploy troops to Venezuela without congressional authorization.
Vice President Vance Casts Tie-Breaking Vote To Kill Venezuela War Powers Resolution in the Senate - Vice President JD Vance had to cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate on Wednesday night to kill a Venezuela War Powers Resolution that sought to prevent another US attack on the country without congressional authorization.The Senate was deadlocked at 50-50 on a point of order vote to strip the War Powers Resolution of its privileged status to block a final vote. President Trump and his top officials put significant pressure on five Republicans who voted to advance the legislation last week, and two of the GOP senators — Josh Hawley (MO) and Todd Young (IN) — flipped and voted against the bill.Republican Senators Rand Paul (KY), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Susan Collins (ME) maintained their support for the bill and joined Democrats in voting in favor despite the pressure from the Trump administration.Hawley said last week that he voted to advance the bill because of concerns that Trump might send troops to Venezuela. “With regard to Venezuela, my read of the Constitution is that if the President feels the need to put boots on the ground there in the future, Congress would need to vote on it,” wrote on X.Before the vote on Wednesday, Hawley said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured him that the administration would consult Congress if the “security situation” regarding Venezuela changes. “Secretary Rubio has said directly to me: ‘There are absolutely no plans or intentions of occupying Venezuela. But if something crazy should happen, they will follow the Constitution and statutes in working through this with Congress,” Hawley said.However, back in November, Rubio and other Trump administration officials assured Congress that they didn’t plan to directly attack Venezuela in an effort to kill another War Powers Resolution. The Washington Post reported at the time that Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth “provided a classified briefing for select members of Congress where they indicated the administration is not currently preparing to target Venezuela directly and didn’t have a proper legal argument for doing so.” About two months later, the US bombed Caracas and kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Oil Majors Tell Washington They Want PDVSA Out of the Way --International oil companies are wasting no time testing how serious Washington and Caracas really are about reviving Venezuela’s oil industry. And their opening demand is refreshingly blunt: if we’re going to invest, we need to control our barrels. According to Reuters sources, international oil executives and lawyers are pushing for fast, targeted changes to Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law that would allow foreign partners to export the oil they produce directly, rather than handing it over to state oil company PDVSA to sell on their behalf. The ask is narrow by design. Leave PDVSA as majority owner, they say, but let international partners control their share of production, access export terminals, and—most importantly—get paid quickly. Oil companies are likely to be sticklers on the last point. Under the current framework, PDVSA controls sales and deposits proceeds into joint venture accounts. That system collapsed under U.S. sanctions, leaving billions of dollars owed to partners including Chevron, ENI, and Repsol. For oil companies with long memories, Venezuela isn’t short on geology—it’s short on trust. The industry is also pushing to roll back extra taxes layered onto the law in 2021, which pushed Venezuela’s government take to some of the highest levels in Latin America. Companies are signaling they can live with royalties and income tax. Extra taxes, opaque fees, PDVSA-controlled sales, delayed payments, or contracts open to interpretation, not so much. This legal pressure campaign dovetails neatly with the Trump administration’s broader strategy. According to a Friday interview with Axios, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is pursuing oil and critical minerals deals with Venezuela as part of a plan to stabilize the country economically and redirect exports away from China. The goal, Wright said, is higher production, cleaner flows, and a more predictable business environment—without U.S. government subsidies. What’s emerging is a pragmatic alignment. Washington wants oil flowing under U.S. supervision. Oil companies want export control and legal clarity. Caracas wants cash flow and investment yesterday.
Trump's control over Venezuela's oil threatens OPEC's influence, Washington to own 30% of market – WSJ --Donald Trump plans to resume oil production in Venezuela to lower global prices to $50 per barrel. This would allow the US to control about 30% of the world's raw materials market. Donald Trump's ambition to establish control over Venezuela's oil industry poses critical risks for the OPEC cartel. The US president's initiative to restore Venezuelan oil fields aims to lower global prices to $50 per barrel, which directly threatens the revenues of traditional oil exporters. This is stated in an article by The Wall Street Journal, writes UNN. According to JPMorgan's estimates, the consolidation of US, Guyanese, and Venezuelan capacities will allow Washington to control about 30% of the global raw materials market. Trump's inner circle is considering increasing Venezuela's oil production from the current 1 million to 3 million barrels per day within the next three years. This will require massive investments, but even the short-term expectation of increased supply is putting pressure on a market already suffering from an oil surplus. Against this backdrop, OPEC and Russia have already changed tactics. At a meeting on Sunday, January 11, the alliance members decided to suspend any increase in production during the first quarter of 2026 to prevent prices from falling further. Saudi Arabia maintains a wait-and-see approach, citing the critical state of Venezuelan infrastructure, the restoration of which will take years. At the same time, some OPEC members see potential benefits in Trump's actions: if the US cuts off Venezuelan oil supplies to China, Beijing will be forced to increase purchases from Persian Gulf countries.This shift could give the US greater influence over oil markets, potentially keeping prices historically lower and altering the balance of power on the international stage.
Senate Dems probe banks on role in Trump's Venezuelan oil plans - A group of Democratic senators on Friday pressed the top banks operating in the U.S. as to the extent of their involvement in the Trump administration's announced plan to seize and distribute revenue from the sale of Venezuelan oil, following the capture of ousted president Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.
- Key insight: Democratic senators are launching a probe into whether major U.S. and global banks are helping the Trump administration process Venezuelan oil sales.
- Supporting data: The lawmakers wrote to Bank of America, Barclays, BMO, BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorganChase, MUFG, RBC, Santander, Standard Chartered Bank, TD Bank and UBS.
- Forward look: Banks must disclose communications, their level of involvement and custody structures by month's end, with regular updates.
Warren, Wyden, Whitehouse, Welch and Schatz say the administration's memo contradicts public statements, and they want more answers on whether the administration is working with top U.S. banks to funnel money out of the South American nation.
Norwegian lawmakers rip Trump accepting Machado Nobel prize: ‘Embarrassing and damaging’ -- Norwegian Labour Party lawmaker Raymond Johansen on Thursday ripped President Trump for accepting the Nobel Peace Prize from Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado presented Trump with the prize Thursday during a White House meeting after months of lauding the president in his push to oust regime leader Nicolás Maduro and for his war on drug cartels.. “This is incredibly embarrassing and damaging for one of the world’s most recognized and important awards,” Johansen wrote in a Thursday post on Facebook. “The awarding of the award is now so politicized and potentially dangerous that it can easily legitimize an anti-peace prize development.” “Unbelievable that she actually gave the award to Trump. What on earth is the Nobel Committee going to say? To be continued,” he added. The Norwegian Nobel Committee indirectly addressed the transfer of awards Thursday explaining that the prize could “transfer” owners but not awardees. “Once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others. The decision is final and stands for all time,” the Nobel Peace Center wrote on social platform X. “A medal can change owners, but the title of a Nobel Peace Prize laureate cannot,” the statement continues.
Nobel Committee says Machado decision to give Peace Prize to Trump doesn't change who won - The committee that awards the Nobel Prize said Friday that the physical symbols of the prize — a medal and diploma — can be given away, but the honor itself is “inseparably linked” to the winner. “The medal and the diploma are the physical symbols confirming that an individual or organisation has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The prize itself – the honour and recognition – remains inseparably linked to the person or organisation designated as the laureate by the Norwegian Nobel Committee,” the committee said in a statement. Several Nobel medals are currently on display in museums around the world, the committee noted. They highlighted seven past winners who chose to give away or sell theirs, including former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, whose widow donated the medal and diploma to the U.N. Office in Geneva following his death in 2024. “Regardless of what may happen to the medal, the diploma, or the prize money, it is and remains the original laureate who is recorded in history as the recipient of the prize,” the committee said. “Even if the medal or diploma later comes into someone else’s possession, this does not alter who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.” The clarification came one day after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a meeting in the White House. “I presented the president of the United States the medal, the Nobel Peace Prize. I told him this: 200 years ago, Gen. [Marquis de] Lafayette gave Simón Bolívar a medal with George Washington’s face on it. Bolívar since then kept the medal for the rest of his life,” Machado told reporters Thursday. “Two hundred years in history, the people of Bolivar are giving back to the heir of Washington a medal, in this case the medal of the Nobel Peace Prize as a recognition for his unique commitment with our freedom,” she added.
John Bolton says he worried Donald Trump would take Teddy Roosevelt Nobel Prize --“Theodore Roosevelt’s Nobel medallion hangs on the wall of the Roosevelt Room in the White House. I was always worried he would grab that if he can’t get another one,” Bolton told host Erin Burnett on CNN’s “OutFront,” referencing the prize Roosevelt won in 1906 for mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War.
Trump Threatens Cuba, Suggests Rubio Could Serve as the Country’s President - President Donald Trump asserted that Cuba was vulnerable after he kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. He demanded that Havana make a deal with Washington or face additional aggression from the US. “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela,” the President wrote on Truth Social Sunday. “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.” Earlier this month, President Donald Trump ordered an attack on Venezuela that killed over 100 people and captured Maduro. Some of those killed were Cuban soldiers who were serving as Maduro’s bodyguards. “Cuba provided ‘Security Services’ for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s USA attack,” Trump wrote. “And Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will.” Following the capture of Maduro, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened several other nations in our own hemisphere. “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned,” Rubio said. On Sunday, in a second Truth Social post, Trump wrote that Rubio serving as President of Cuba “sounds good to me.”
Tens of thousands demonstrate outside US Embassy in Cuba - Tens of thousands gathered Friday in front of the U.S. Embassy in Havana to protest the deaths of Cuban officers killed during the U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The protesters also called for the release of Maduro, a close ally of Cuba who now faces trial on drug trafficking charges in a New York City court. “No, imperialists, we have absolutely no fear of you … and we don’t like to be threatened,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said during the protest. “You will not intimidate us.” During the demonstration, protesters waved Cuban flags and sang chants like “Down with imperialism!” and “Cuba will prevail!” Days prior, tens of thousands gathered at the Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces to mourn the lost soldiers. “Humanity is experiencing something very complex, and [the U.S.] is governed by a president who considers himself an emperor,” René González, one of the protesters, told AP at the demonstration. “We must show him that ideas are worth more than weapons. This march is a message of our unity. Independence is sacred, and we will defend it tooth and nail if necessary.” The demonstration, organized by the Cuban government, comes about two weeks after the U.S. raided Maduro’s residence on Jan. 3, taking him and his wife, Cilia Flores, and killing 32 Cuban soldiers who were a part of Maduro’s security detail.
White House: US Airstrikes Against Iran Are 'On the Table' - The White House said on Monday that US airstrikes against Iran are “on the table” as President Trump has continued his threats to bomb the Islamic Republic amid protests in the country. “One thing President Trump is very good at is always keeping all of his options on the table,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “And airstrikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table for the commander-in-chief.” Leavitt added that “diplomacy is always the first option for the president,” though Trump backed an Israeli attack on Iran during the last round of nuclear negotiations back in June. “The president has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary, and nobody knows that better than Iran,” Leavitt said. On Sunday night, Trump suggested Iran had reached out to discuss the possibility of holding negotiations and suggested he was open to diplomacy, but also said he was considering “very strong” options. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that the “communication channel” between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains open. Axios and The Wall Street Journal both reported on Monday that Trump was leaning toward bombing Iran but was still exploring the possibility of negotiations. However, it’s unclear what sort of diplomatic deal would satisfy Trump as he continues to shift the pretext for potentially launching another war. In recent weeks, Trump has threatened to bomb or support an Israeli attack on Iran if it rebuilds its civilian nuclear program or “continues” its conventional missile program, and has repeatedly threatened to attack the country if Iranian authorities kill protesters. The Axios report said that if Trump decides to bomb Iran, the strikes would likely target elements of Iran’s government responsible for internal security. Iran’s position is that it doesn’t seek war with the US, but it’s warning that it will strike back if Trump follows through on his threat. “If Washington wants to test the military option it has tested before, we are ready for it,” Araghchi told Al Jazeera. The Telegraph reported over the weekend that amid the threats of US airstrikes on Iran, the US military has conveyed to President Trump that it needs time to position assets in the region to prepare for Iranian counterattacks, which would likely involve missile strikes on US bases. Iranian government sources have said more than 100 security personnel have been killed in the ongoing protests, suggesting there have been significant attacks against Iran’s security forces. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a US-based and US-funded NGO, has also reported 133 military and law enforcement deaths, among a total of 646 people it claims to have been killed.
More than 2,400 protesters reported killed in Iran as Trump issues warning about executions -- US President Donald Trump encouraged Iranian protesters to keep demonstrating, saying “help is on its way” amid a brutal crackdown. He also warned Iran against executing protesters, saying the US would take “strong action” in response. The US State Department fears a protester may be executed tomorrow. After returning from Michigan this afternoon, Trump said he would take part in a meeting on Iran at which he expected to receive updates on the death toll. A US-based rights group reported that more than 2,400 protesters have been killed since late December. Some landline and mobile phone users in Iran have been able to call abroad for the first time more than four days after the government shut down communications. But internet access remains cut off for a fifth day. Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s permanent representative to the UN, has written to the secretary-general and the Security Council, calling on them to condemn the United States and Israel for what it called inciting violence and interference in Iran’s internal affairs. “This reckless statement explicitly encourages political destabilization, incites and invites violence, and threatens the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iravani said in a letter addressed to the UN chief Antonio Guterres and Security Council president Abukar Dahir Osman. Iravani called on UN member states and the Security Council to condemn “all forms of incitement to violence, threats to use force, and interference in Iran’s internal affairs by the United States” and to urge the US and Israel to “immediately cease destabilizing policies and practices.” The US and Israel, Iravani said, “bear direct and undeniable legal responsibility for the resulting loss of innocent civilian lives, particularly among the youth.” Trump has said his administration is monitoring the deadly protests in Iran and is continuing to weigh potential military options. The protests began in late December over widespread economic grievances but the Iranian government has made an effort to cast protesters as “rioters and terrorists.”
Trump administration to US citizens: Leave Iran now - The Trump administration is telling U.S. citizens to exit Iran immediately in the wake of unrest in the country. A security alert by the virtual U.S. Embassy for Iran advises American citizens to “leave Iran now” and “have a plan for departing Iran that does not rely on U.S. government help.” “Protests across Iran are escalating and may turn violent, resulting in arrests and injuries. Increased security measures, road closures, public transportation disruptions, and internet blockages are ongoing,” the security alert reads. “The Government of Iran has restricted access to mobile, landline, and national internet networks.” On Monday, President Trump warned of imposing a 25 percent tariff on countries that do business with Iran in response to a violent crackdown by the Iranian government on increasing antigovernment protests. “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive,” Trump said on Truth Social. In recent weeks, protests against the Iranian government have sprung up amid Iranian leaders intensely cracking down on the demonstrations. An estimated 500 people or more have died in connection with the protests, according to activists, and 10,600 have been detained, the Human Right Activists News Agency said. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday the country is ready for war amid Trump reportedly considering military options to get involved and safeguard protesters in Iran..
House Democrat says Fetterman’s Iran remark ‘pisses me off’ --Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) on Monday took a swing at his Democratic congressional colleague Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) over Iran. In an earlier interview on “CNN News Central,” the network’s Kate Bolduan pressed Fetterman about possible American military action in Iran. “The president’s saying he’s now considering taking military action inside Iran, do you want the U.S. to get involved like that?” Bolduan asked Fetterman. “Sure, absolutely. And now, if it continues to make more sense, absolutely. I think I was the only Democrat that fully supported our strike of their Iranian nuclear facilities last year. And now, by then, without those kinds of strikes, Iran could have acquired a nuclear bomb,” the Keystone State senator responded. Key national security officials with the Trump administration are prepared to brief President Trump on Tuesday with options on how the U.S. could respond to the Iranian government’s lethal use of force against protests in the country. The president has warned of military intervention and said he is considering “strong options” to counter the alleged killing and injuring of numerous protestors. CNN’s John Berman noted Fetterman’s earlier comments later in the broadcast, to which Ryan reacted negatively. “My blood pressure went through the roof when I heard that, because that pisses me off. I mean, to say, ‘Sure, sure we’re going to bomb another country. Sure, we’re going to start a — potentially another regime change war in the Middle East,’” Ryan, who served in the Army during the Iraq War, said. “And I was on the receiving end of 27 months in combat in Iraq, where I lost friends and many innocent Iraqis lost their lives. Look, the regime in Iran is evil, and I don’t use that term lightly. We know that, and doing what we can to support the brave people rising up against their government, is what we should do,” the New York Democrat added. Ryan later responded to a clip of his earlier appearance on CNN, saying “[d]amn right it pissed me off.” “Unlike the Senator, I’ve actually seen combat in the Middle East. It’s really easy to sit at home in a hoodie and casually suggest starting a war. It’s a lot harder to do the work required to actually bring peace,” Ryan added in a Monday afternoon post on the social platform X.
Report: Military Tells Trump It Needs More Time to Prepare for War With Iran - Senior Department of War officials have told President Donald Trump they need more time to consolidate American troops deployed to the Middle East before the US launches an attack on Iran. According to The Telegraph, “Trump has been warned that the US military needs more time to prepare for strikes against Iran.” Military commanders in the Middle East stated they need to “consolidate US military positions and prepare defences” in anticipation of an Iranian retaliatory attack. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that if it attacks Iran, the Islamic Republic will strike Israel and US bases in the Middle East. Trump has threatened Iran several times in recent weeks. “If Iran [shoots] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” Trump said earlier this month.Demonstrations began in Iran two weeks ago, and some protests have escalated into riots. Some groups report that 200 people have been killed during the demonstrations, including over 40 members of Iranian security forces. Iranian authorities have reportedly used live ammunition to break up protests, and Tehran has cut off internet service in an attempt to quell the movement. Israel Hayom spoke with American officials who said the White House is preparing a range of actions against Iran, including using Starlink to provide protesters with internet access, a cyber attack, new sanctions, and kinetic military action. The Telegraph reports that potential targets of US strikes include non-military targets in Tehran and Iranian security forces.
Iran warns of retaliation if Trump strikes, US withdraws some personnel from bases (Reuters) - The United States is withdrawing some personnel from bases in the Middle East, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, after a senior Iranian official said Tehran had warned neighbours it would hit American bases if Washington strikes. With Iran's leadership trying to quell the worst domestic unrest the Islamic Republic has ever faced, Tehran is seeking to deter U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated threats to intervene on behalf of anti-government protesters. The U.N. Security Council is due to meet on Iran on Thursday at the request of the United States. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the United States was pulling some personnel from key bases in the region as a precaution given heightened regional tensions. "All the signals are that a U.S. attack is imminent, but that is also how this administration behaves to keep everyone on their toes. Unpredictability is part of the strategy," a Western military official told Reuters later on Wednesday. At the White House, however, Trump suggested he was adopting a wait-and-see posture toward the crisis. Trump told reporters that he has been told that killings in the Iranian government's crackdown on the protests were subsiding and that he believes there is currently no plan for large-scale executions. Asked who told him that the killings had stopped, Trump described them as "very important sources on the other side." The president did not rule out potential U.S. military action, saying "we are going to watch what the process is" before noting that his administration had received a "very good statement" from Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday "there is no plan" by Iran to hang people, when asked about the anti-government protests. "There is no plan for hanging at all," the foreign minister told Fox News in an interview on the "Special Report with Bret Baier" show. "Hanging is out of the question," he said. According to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights Society, hangings are common in Iranian prisons. Two European officials said U.S. military intervention could come in the next 24 hours. An Israeli official also said it appeared Trump had decided to intervene, though the scope and timing remained unclear. Qatar said drawdowns from its Al Udeid air base, the biggest U.S. base in the Middle East, were "being undertaken in response to the current regional tensions". Three diplomats said some personnel had been told to leave the base, though there were no immediate signs of large numbers of troops being bussed out to a soccer stadium and shopping mall as took place hours before an Iranian missile strike last year. Britain was also withdrawing some personnel from an air base in Qatar ahead of possible U.S. strikes, The I Paper newspaper reported. The British defence ministry had no immediate comment. Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in support of protesters in Iran, where thousands of people have been reported killed in a crackdown on the unrest against clerical rule. Iran and its Western foes have both described the unrest, which began two weeks ago as demonstrations against dire economic conditions and rapidly escalated in recent days, as the most violent since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that installed Iran's system of Shi'ite clerical rule. An Iranian official has said more than 2,000 people have died. A rights group put the toll at more than 2,600. Iran has "never faced this volume of destruction", Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Wednesday, blaming foreign enemies. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot described "the most violent repression in Iran's contemporary history". Iranian authorities have accused the U.S. and Israel of fomenting the unrest, carried out by people it calls armed terrorists.
Trump Declares 25% Tariff on Any Country Doing Business With Iran - President Trump on Monday announced that he would be imposing a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran, which, if enforced, could add to the economic pain among Iranians that sparked large-scale protests inside the country.“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The tariffs could affect China, Turkey, the UAE, Iraq, and India, all major trading partners of Iran. Trump has a history of announcing tariffs then reversing them, but he said in the post that the order for the new Iran-related tariffs is “final and conclusive.” Trump’s announcement came as he is threatening to bomb Iran over Tehran’s response to the protests. Amid the attention on Iran, experts on a panel hosted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft noted that the foreign response Iranians would like to see is the lifting of US sanctions, which were designed to wreck the country’s economy. “I think that [the] vast majority of Iranians would welcome a deal that lifts the shadow of war and invites the removal of sanctions,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj newsmagazine, said on the panel, according to Middle East Eye.
US Announces New Air Defense Cell in Qatar Amid Trump's Threats To Bomb Iran - US Central Command on Tuesday announced the opening of a new air defense “coordination cell” at its Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran attacked back in June in response to US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.“The new Middle Eastern Air Defense – Combined Defense Operations Cell (MEAD-CDOC) is located in the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) and comprised of personnel from the United States and regional partners,” CENTCOM said in a press release. The announcement comes as President Trump is threatening to bomb over protests inside the country, and Iranian officials are warning that US bases in the region could be targeted in response to any US attack. Trump brushed off the comments from Iranian officials when asked about the warnings on Tuesday.“Iran said that the last time I blew them up with the nuclear capability, which they don’t have any longer, so Iran said that the last time. They better behave,” he said.Before retaliating for the US airstrikes in June, Iran gave advanced warning that it would target Al Udeid, giving the US time to evacuate and time to prepare to intercept the missiles. At least one missile still got through, striking and destroying a communication dome.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine called the US defense of Al Udeid, which involved the use of Patriot air defense systems, the “largest single Patriot engagement in US military history.” A similar Iranian attack without any warning or multiple attacks on US bases in the region, of which there are many, could lead to significant US casualties.
President Trump Urges Iran Protests To Continue, Says 'Help Is on Its Way' -President Trump on Tuesday called for the protests in Iran to continue and said “help is on its way,” suggesting he was making another threat of military intervention.“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price,” the president wrote on Truth Social.The president also said he cut off contact with Iranian officials, a comment that came after he suggested he was open to diplomacy with Tehran. “I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!” Trump added.“MIGA” refers to “Make Iran Great Again,” a slogan Trump used during the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran back in June 2025 when he floated the idea of regime change in the country. He also recently posed with a “Make Iran Great Again Hat” alongside Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has said the president is ready to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, responded to Trump’s post, saying the “names of the main killers of the people of Iran” were the US president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Also on Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)claimed it disrupted “Israeli-linked terror teams” and seized US-made weapons.Iranian officials have warned that the US would face a severe response to any attack. “Come and see what will happen to American ships and military bases in the region,” the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said at a pro-government rally over the weekend.“Come and burn in the fire of the Iranian nation so severely that it becomes a lasting lesson in history for all oppressive US rulers. Come and find out what will happen to you and to the region,” he added.
US Evacuating Some Troops From Middle East Bases as It Considers Attacking Iran - The US is pulling some troops from several of its bases in the Middle East, as European officials toldReuters on Wednesday evening that a US attack on Iran could come within the next 24 hours. The US pulled forces from bases in the region before the start of the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran in June 2025.One of the bases the US is pulling troops from is the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which Iran attacked in June in retaliation for the US bombing its nuclear facilities. Iran gave the US advanced warning ahead of the attack, giving the US military time to evacuate its forces and prepare to intercept the missiles. Iranian officials have been warning they will strike US bases and ships in the region in response to any attack, and it’s likely this time they won’t give advanced notice.“The President of #America, who repeatedly mentions the futile story of aggression against #Iran’s nuclear facilities, would do better to also mention the plowing of the American #AlUdeid base by Iranian missiles,” Ali Shamkhani, an aide to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote on X on Wednesday.“It will certainly help in creating a real understanding of Iran’s will and capability to respond to any aggression,” added Shamkhani, who Israel tried to kill during the 12-Day War.On Tuesday, President Trump brushed off Iran’s warnings, saying, “Iran said that the last time I blew them up.” He also held a meeting with his senior advisors at the White House on Tuesday evening to discuss the situation in Iran.US officials told The New York Times that US intelligence has assessed that if Trump orders strikes on Iran, Tehran would likely retaliate with missile strikes on Al Udeid and possibly US bases in Iraq and Syria, an assessment that was discussed at the White House on Tuesday.The Washington Post cited a US official who said the Trump administration “just doesn’t have the assets in the region to do a full kinetic strike without risking retaliation” since it pulled assets out of the Middle East for the attack on Venezuela. But the US does have at least three US Navy guided-missile destroyers in the region, and the B-2 bombers that it used to attack Iran back in June were flown from bases in the US.
US Imposes New Sanctions on Iranian Officials - The US Treasury Department on Thursday announced new sanctions on Iranian officials accused of being responsible for the response to protests inside Iran, a largely symbolic move since it’s unlikely senior Iranian officials have assets in the US or plan on traveling to the country. Among the Iranian officials hit with sanctions was Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Other officials who were targeted include law enforcement and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. The US also targeted 18 individuals and entities it accused of facilitating money laundering on behalf of the Iranian government.“At the direction of President Trump, the Treasury Department is sanctioning key Iranian leaders involved in the brutal crackdown against the Iranian people. Treasury will use every tool to target those behind the regime’s tyrannical oppression of human rights,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement on the sanctions.The announcement of the sanctions comes after President Trump appeared to back down on his threat to bomb Iran over the protests, saying he was told the “killing” had stopped. Iran’s position is that the violence was due to armed attacks against Iranian security forces. Both government sources and Western-backed NGOs have said more than 100 Iranian law enforcement and military personnelhave been killed in the unrest.“When terrorist elements led from outside, entered this, you know, protests and started to shoot, you know, police forces, police officers and security forces. And there were terrorist cells. They came in, they used Daesh-style terrorist operations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday evening.“They got police officers, burned them alive, they beheaded them, and they started shooting at police officers and also to the people. So as a result, for three days, we had, in fact, fighting against terrorists, and not with the protesters,” Aragchi added.The Iranian diplomat also claimed the violence was part of an Israeli plot to get the US into a war with Iran. “They wanted to increase the number of deaths. Why? Because President Trump has said that if there are killings, he would intervene. And they wanted to drag him into this conflict,” he said. “And that was exactly an Israeli plot. They started to increase the number of deaths by killing ordinary people, by killing police officers, by starting a kind of, you know, fighting inside the different cities
President Trump Tells Iran He Won't Attack the Country: Iranian Envoy -An Iranian official said on Thursday that President Trump has informed Iran he doesn’t plan to attack the country and asked Tehran to exercise restraint.The comment about Trump’s message was made by Reza Amiri Moghadam, Iran’s envoy to Pakistan, according to the Pakistani newspaper DAWN, as the anti-government protests in Iran appear to have largely stopped. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a close ally of President Trump, claimed in a post on X that Moghadam’s remarks weren’t true. “The circumstances around the necessary, decisive action to be taken against the evil Iranian regime have nothing to do with President Trump’s will or determination,” Graham said. “Nothing could be further from the truth. Quite the opposite. Stay tuned.” Trump said on Wednesday that he was told the “killing” and “executions” inside Iran would stop, and he made similar comments in a post on Truth Social on Thursday. “FoxNews: ‘Iranian protester will no longer be sentenced to death after President Trump’s warnings. Likewise others.’ This is good news. Hopefully, it will continue!” he wrote. However, Trump has a history of being purposely deceptive and did suggest that the US had no plans for war with Iran back in June, right before Israel launched a major attack on the country, starting the 12-Day War. As Israeli jets were getting in the air to bomb Iran, the president wrote on Truth Social that he was committed to a diplomatic solution with Tehran.A US attack on Iran in the coming weeks or months is still likely, as President Trump has also recently threatened to bomb the country or support an Israeli attack over Tehran’s conventional missile program. The US has also ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to head to the Middle East from the South China Sea, which is expected to take about a week.According to media reports, the US military told the Trump administration that it needed to “consolidate US military positions and prepare defenses” before bombing Iran, as an Iranian counterattack against US bases is expected. Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that US bases would be struck in retaliation, and US intelligence assessed Iranian missiles could target the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, as well as US bases in Syria and Iraq.Another factor that could have played into Trump’s decision not to attack was opposition from the US’s Arab allies in the region. According to a report from the AFP, officials in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman led the effort to persuade Trump not to bomb Iran.Trump’s goal for a potential attack was likely regime change, and according to NBC News, his advisors weren’t able to guarantee that US strikes on Iran would have collapsed the government. The report also said that the US may not have enough assets in the region to face an Iranian counterattack, and that these factors could lead to Trump approving a more limited attack with options to escalate.
US Surging Military Assets To the Middle East To Prepare for War With Iran After Trump Postpones Attack - The US military is planning to surge military assets to the Middle East to prepare for a potential war with Iran after President Trump backed down from bombing the country, according to a report fromThe New York Times.US officials told the paper that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and some warships from its strike group were on their way to the Middle East from the South China Sea, a roughly week-long trip. The US is also planning to send an array of warplanes to the Middle East, including fighter jets and refueling aircraft, and additional air defenses.According to other media reports, the US military’s message to Trump amid his threats to bomb Iran is that there weren’t enough US assets in the region to face a potential counterattack, which could target the many US bases in the region. Trump was also reportedly told that US strikes likely wouldn’t result in regime change and could lead to a prolonged war.The Times report also said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone his plans to attack Iran, and Axios reported the same thing later, saying that Netanyahu wants more time to prepare for Iranian retaliation.If the reports about Netanyahu’s request are true, it’s likely that he also wants more US military assets in the region since Israel relied on US forces to intercept Iranian missiles during the war back in June 2025, and many still got through and struck Israeli territory, which is what led to Israel agreeing to a ceasefire after 12 days. On the other hand, the leaks and delays could be meant to keep Iran off guard as the US and Israelengaged in a deception campaign before Israel launched the opening salvo of the 12-Day War. The White House has claimed that Iran has postponed planned executions due to Trump’s threats and warned that if the “killing” in Iran continues, there will be consequences. However, the unrest in Iran is just the latest pretext for war with Iran. Iran’s nuclear program was the pretext for launching the 12-Day War, and while meeting with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago back in December, Trump said he would back an Israeli attack on Iran if Tehran “continues” its conventional missile program. There’s no sign that Iran would even consider limiting its ballistic missiles since they are the Islamic Republic’s only form of deterrence.
US May Spend Up to $2 Billion on New Israeli Armored Vehicle Factory - The US may spend up to $2 billion financing the construction of a new armored production plant in Israel, Haaretz reported on Monday, citing official US documents.The report said that the Israeli government announced last year a project it calls the “Armored Vehicle Acceleration Project” to increase production of Merkava tanks and troop carriers used by the IDF. The Israeli Defense Ministry estimated the project would cost about $1.5 billion, but didn’t mention potential US financing.The US Army Corps of Engineers said in a presentation in October that future “business opportunities” in Israel include the “planning, design, and construction” of the “Joint Systems Manufacturing Center” for the armored vehicles. The presentation stated that the project is expected to cost between $1 billion and $2 billion and will be financed by US military aid.Another document from the US Army Corps of Engineers, dated November 2025, outlines “contractor opportunities forecast” and includes the construction of the Israeli armored vehicle plant. “We are exploring the potential for a multibillion-dollar Joint Systems Manufacturing Center (JSMC) project, which could be a pivotal next step for the program,” the presentation reads, according to Haaretz.The Haaretz report said that when asked about the projects, the US Army said a final decision had not been made. The potential project highlights the fact that US military aid to Israel doesn’t just provide weapons shipments but also finances military construction inside the country. The US provides Israel with at least $3.8 billion in military aid annually and has provided more to support the genocidal campaign in Gaza and other wars in the region. According to Brown University’s Costs of War Project, in the two years following the October 7 attack, the US government spent at least $21.7 billion on military aid to Israel and another $9.65 billion to $12.07 billion on US military operations in the region in support of Israel.
Steve Witkoff Declares Start of 'Phase Two' of Gaza Deal - US envoy Steve Witkoff on Wednesday declared the start of “phase two” of the Trump administration’s plan to end Israel’s genocidal campaign in the Gaza Strip, about three months after Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire deal that the IDF has constantly violated.“Today, on behalf of President Trump, we are announcing the launch of Phase Two of the President’s 20-Point Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, moving from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction,” Witkoff wrote on X. Witkoff said the second phase establishes an independent Palestinian committee, dubbed the “National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG),” that will oversee the governance of Gaza under US oversight. Egyptian officials said the committee will include 15 members, whose names are expected to be announced soon. The US envoy said phase two also “begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel,” and warned that the US “expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage” or there will be “serious consequences.”Hamas has agreed to turn over governance to an independent Palestinian committee, but it has maintained it won’t disarm unless there’s an establishment of a Palestinian state or movement in that direction. Hamas has suggested it’s open to “freezing” its weapons, but it’s unclear if the US and Israel would accept a temporary disarmament, as Israel is reportedly planning to launch a new offensive to take over Gaza City if Hamas doesn’t give up all of its weapons.Notably, Witkoff’s statement didn’t mention the international force that, under the White House’s 20-point plan, would be deployed to Gaza to replace IDF troops. Countries initially willing to participate have been hesitant to commit troops over concerns that their soldiers could end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel. Witkoff also made no mention of a further Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as IDF troops continue to occupy more than 50% of the Palestinian territory, an arrangement Israeli officials have been clear they want to be permanent.Witkoff also claimed that “phase one” of the US’s Gaza plan “maintained the ceasefire,” but the IDF has killed at least 449 Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect on October 10, according to numbers released by Gaza’s Health Ministry on Wednesday.
Netanyahu Calls Announcement of 'Phase Two' of Gaza Deal a 'Declarative Move' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has framed US envoy Steve Witkoff’s announcementabout the start of “Phase Two” of the US’s Gaza deal as largely symbolic, as the situation on the ground in the besieged Palestinian territory hasn’t changed.According to The Associated Press, Netanyahu told the family of the last remaining Israeli soldier whose body remains buried in the Gaza rubble that the governing committee of Palestinians meant to administer Gaza under US oversight, which was part of Witkoff’s announcement, was merely a “declarative move” rather than a sign of progress.Missing from Witkoff’s announcement was any mention of the international force that was supposed to deploy to Gaza under the White House’s 20-point peace plan, as countries initially willing to participate have been hesitant over concerns their troops could end up fighting Hamas on behalf of Israel.Witkoff also didn’t mention a further Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, as the IDF continues to occupy more than 50% of the Palestinian territory. Israeli officials have been clear that they are eyeing a permanent occupation. “We are deep inside Gaza and will never leave all of Gaza – that will not happen,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said last month.For its part, Hamas has welcomed the US announcement and has said it’s ready to dissolve its government to make way for the Palestinian committee. But the group has maintained that it won’t disarm unless there is progress toward a Palestinian state, though it has suggested the idea of a temporary disarmament. Israel is reportedly planning an offensive to take over Gaza City if Hamas doesn’t give up all of its weapons.
US Carries Out Large-Scale Strikes Against ISIS in Syria - US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that they have carried out “large-scale” airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, saying the hit multiple sites belonging to the terror group as part of their commitment to “pursuing terrorists” and in retaliation for the mid-December incident in which an ISIS infiltrator attacked and killed two US troops and an American civilian translator in Palmyra. The strikes began Saturday evening, and CENTCOM claimed multiple coalition partners participated, though only Jordan has actually confirmed being involved so far. 35 sites were reportedly hit in the strikes, involving 90 “precision munitions.” Details of what exactly was hit are unclear, though the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported three checkpoints within the Deir Ezzor Governorate were attacked by coalition strikes, though they noted that no damage was done and no casualties were reported in those cases.The US has been carrying out strikes intermittently against ISIS in Syria since December 19 in retaliation for the Palmyra incident, calling it “Operation Hawkeye Strike.” They claim to have killed or captured “about 25” ISIS members since the operation began, though none were reported coming from Saturday’s strikes.ISIS has been aiming to reassert itself in Syria recently, years after having lost materially all of their territory to the Kurdish SDF and other groups. The group retains a capacity to carry out attacks, and has remained active in central and northeastern Syria, as well as trying to establish a foothold elsewhere. It remains unclear whether the US airstrikes functionally change anything for ISIS, or just give CENTCOM another opportunity to brag about their “ongoing commitment to root out Islamic terrorism” in Syria and justify their continued presence in the country.Though President Trump ordered US troops out of Syria in his first term, an estimated 1,000 remain on the ground in the country five and a half years later, with no sign they’re actually going anywhere, nor any sign that their operations against ISIS are accomplishing much of anything, since ISIS lost the last village they controlled six years ago.
US Launches Four More Airstrikes in Somalia as Trump Continues Record-Breaking Bombing Campaign - The US has launched four more airstrikes in Somalia, according to press releases from US Africa Command, as the Trump administration continues bombing the country at a record pace. AFRICOM said in two separate press releases that it conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab in different parts of southern Somalia on January 8. The command said one strike was launched near Saakow, Somalia, in the Middle Juba region. According to Somalia’s Defense Ministry, the strike was part of an attack that destroyed an al-Shabaab explosives factory and killed 18 militants. AFRICOM provided no details on casualties or assessments of potential civilian harm, as it stopped sharing that information early last year. The second airstrike the US launched against al-Shabaab on January 8 targeted Buur Heybe, about 95 miles northwest of Mogadishu. Somalia’s Defense Ministry announced that its US-trained Danab force conducted an operation in the same area that it claimed “eliminated 22 terrorists” and said the Danab received support from “international partners.”The US airstrikes in support of the Mogadishu-based Federal Government come after the Trump administration announced it was suspending aid to the government over allegations that it demolished a World Food Program warehouse, a claim Somali officials deny. The continued US strikes indicate that the suspension of aid will not affect US military operations in the country.AFRICOM also announced that its forces launched airstrikes against the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region on January 8 and January 9. The command said that both strikes were launched about 20 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso.
US Launches Two More Airstrikes in Somalia - The US has launched at least two more airstrikes in Somalia in recent days, according to press releases from US Africa Command, as the Trump administration continues bombing the country at a record pace, an air campaign that receives virtually no US media coverage.AFRICOM said one strike launched on January 11 targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region about 16 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso. It offered no other information about the attack, and there have been no statements from US-backed Puntland forces about the bombing.AFRICOM also announced an unspecified number of airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab on January 12in southern Somalia. The command said the attack was conducted in the vicinity of Godane, Somalia, about 37 miles northeast of Mogadishu.Somalia’s Defense Ministry announced an “air operation” conducted with “international partners” in the same area that it claimed killed 17 al-Shabaab militants. “In addition, weapons and vehicles used by the group to carry out their criminal activities were destroyed,” the ministry claimed.Several attacks launched by the US and the US-backed Federal Government last year resulted in civilian casualties. It’s difficult to know the situation on the ground due to the lack of US media coverage, the US-backed government’s crackdown on journalists who report critically on Somalia’s security forces, and al-Shabaab’s restrictions on internet use in the areas it controls.
Trump: We Are Going to Be Doing Something With Greenland - President Donald Trump threatened that he was willing to take control of Greenland the “hard way.” “I’m not talking about money for Greenland yet. I might talk about that. But right now we are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not,” the President said Friday. “I would like to make a deal. You know, the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.” Trump’s plan to take over Greenland will face several challenges. Greenland is a colony of Denmark, a NATO ally. Copenhagen says it will not give the US control of its colony. Last week, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen condemned “unacceptable pressure” by the Trump administration to acquire Greenland, warning it would destroy NATO. “If the United States were to choose to attack another NATO country, then everything would come to an end,” Frederiksen said. “If the United States were to choose to attack another NATO country, then everything would come to an end,” Frederiksen said. “The international community as we know it, democratic rules of the game, NATO, the world’s strongest defensive alliance – all of that would collapse if one NATO country chose to attack another.”Additionally, Greenland’s government opposes becoming an American colony. “We don’t want to be Americans, we don’t want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders,” Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said Friday. During Trump’s remarks to the press, he challenged Denmark’s claim to Greenland. “You know, the fact that they had a boat land there 500 years ago doesn’t mean that they own the land pure.” The President added, “We had lots of boats go there also.” Trump claimed the US needed to seize Greenland to prevent China and Russia from taking control of the Danish colony. “If we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland. And we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor,” the President said.
Sen. Chris Murphy says US annexation of Greenland 'would be the end of NATO' -- Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday that the U.S. moving to take Greenland by force would mark the end of NATO.“It would be the end of NATO,” Murphy said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” when asked by host Kristen Welker what such a move would result in. The Connecticut Democrat, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, noted that other NATO countries would be required to defend Greenland, pitting the U.S. against longtime allies such as the U.K. and France.President Trump has again shown interest in acquiring the semiautonomous Danish territory in recent weeks, arguing the island is essential to national security. The U.S. has operated Pituffik Space Base in Greenland since 1943.The president has also not ruled out the use of military force to take over Greenland, although White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted earlier this week that diplomacy is the administration’s first option. Rubio is set to meet with Danish officials this coming week. Earlier Sunday, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) — who doubles as Trump’s envoy to Greenland — wrote on the social platform X that the president’s desire to acquire the mineral-rich territory should be met with “hospitality, not hostility.” But officials in Greenland, Denmark and Europe have pushed back on Trump’s overtures throughout the last year, particularly in recent days.Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen and four party leaders said Friday the island’s future “must be decided by the Greenlandic people,” according to The Associated Press. That followed Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen telling Danish broadcaster TV2 on Monday that an American attack on Greenland would end NATO, an alliance formed in 1949 in the wake of World War II. “If the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, everything stops,” she said. European leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, also joined Frederiksen in saying that Greenland “belongs to its people.”“It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland,” they wrote Tuesday in a joint statement.
Mitch McConnell: Donald Trump taking Greenland would ‘incinerate’ NATO- Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) warned in a speech on the Senate floor Wednesday that President Trump’s talk of seizing Greenland by force threatens to “incinerate” the nation’s long-standing ties with NATO allies. McConnell declared that burning the treaty organization that formed after World War II to contain Soviet aggression would be an “unprecedented act of strategic self-harm.” “Unless and until the president can demonstrate otherwise, then the proposition at hand today is very straightforward: incinerating the hard-won trust of loyal allies in exchange for no meaningful change in U.S. access to the Arctic,” McConnell said on the Senate floor, delivering one of the strongest statements criticizing the Trump administration’s talk about potentially seizing Greenland by force. He warned that following through on the “ill-advised threats” from the administration would “shatter the trust of allies.” “Following through on this provocation would be more disastrous for the President’s legacy than withdrawing from Afghanistan was for his predecessor,” he said. He pointed to polling showing that just 17 percent of Americans think trying to take control of Greenland is a good idea and that 68 percent of Americans view the NATO alliance favorably. He delivered his comments on the Senate floor after Trump bluntly implied he’s considering using military force to take control of Greenland if Denmark doesn’t agree to sell the mineral-rich territory to the United States.
Republican introduces House bill seeking to make Greenland 51st state - Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) has introduced a bill to make Greenland the 51st state in the U.S., following President Trump’s recent push to acquire the Danish territory. The “Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act” was introduced by the Florida Republican on Monday, his office said in a press release. The bill’s goals, according to its text, include enabling “the annexation and subsequent admission to statehood of Greenland.” “Greenland is not a distant outpost we can afford to ignore—it is a vital national security asset,” Fine said in the press release. “Whoever controls Greenland controls key Arctic shipping lanes and the security architecture protecting the United States.” “America cannot leave that future in the hands of regimes that despise our values and seek to undermine our security,” he added. The bill states President Trump “is authorized to take such steps as may be necessary, including by seeking to enter into negotiations with the Kingdom of Denmark, to annex or otherwise acquire Greenland as a territory of the United States.” Trump knocks release of photos in Epstein files dump: 'I think it's a terrible thing' After the U.S. owns Greenland, under the bill, Trump then has to send a report to Congress featuring possible federal law changes “as the President may determine necessary to admit the newly acquired territory as a State.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday said that there was not a “timeline” for the U.S. to take over Greenland. “[Trump] has not set a timeline, but it’s definitely a priority for him,” Leavitt told reporters.
GOP, Democratic lawmakers to travel to Denmark to discuss Greenland - A bipartisan group of lawmakers will travel to Denmark in the wake of a recent push by President Trump to acquire Greenland, which is a Danish territory. The group includes Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), as well as Reps. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) and Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), according to a report from Hannah Brant and Joe Khalil of NewsNation, The Hill’s sister station. Several of the senators have been unnerved by recent statements from admistration officials about taking Greenland by force. The remarks have also unsettled officials in Greenland and Denmark, as well as other European capitols. The president’s threats targeting Greenland came into the spotlight again following the American operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Trump has often discussed acquiring Greenland, which has many mineral resources and a strategic location that could boost American national security. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday said that there was not a “timeline” for the U.S. to take over Greenland. “[President Trump] has not set a timeline but it’s definitely a priority for him,” Leavitt told reporters. “I think the president was very clear last night.” “He said that he wants to see the United States acquire Greenland because he feels if we do not then it will eventually be acquired or even perhaps hostilely taken over by either China or Russia.”
Why Greenland's vast natural resources won't necessarily translate into huge profits-The US is saber-rattling over Greenland once again. The vast island's natural resources are back on the agenda, a year after then-US national security advisor Michael Waltz announced: "This is about critical minerals. This is about natural resources." Greenland is endowed with both fossil fuels and critical raw materials. It possesses at least 25 of the 34 raw materials considered critical by the European Union.The EU's 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act seeks to improve European supply security of these, and both Trump and the EU want to weaken Chinese dominance in the trade. Meanwhile, vast reserves of oil are found offshore across eastern and western Greenland.The value of these resources is hard to estimate as the prices of oil and critical raw materials fluctuate wildly. Like with Venezuela's oil, it will take an enormous amount of money to build the infrastructure needed to mine the natural resources in Greenland. Mining and fossil fuel projects are capital-intensive, requiring large upfront investments with long lead times before projects yield profits. Outside its capital Nuuk, there is almost no road infrastructure in Greenland and limited deep-water ports for large tankers and container ships. Around the world, private mining and fossil fuel corporations can exploit public infrastructure such as roads, ports, power generation, housing and specialist workers to make their operations profitable. In Greenland, huge capital investment would be required to extract the first truckload of minerals and the first barrel of oil. Greenland's mineral riches have been known about for some time. Foreign companies have tried to set up viable mining industries in Greenland for decades, with little to show for it. Indeed, contrary to US President Donald Trump's assertions, American corporations have long had the opportunity to enter Greenland's mining sector. The capital intensity twinned with extremely harsh climactic conditions mean that, so far, no firm has begun commercial mining activities.Greenland's natural resources minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, said in 2025 that she wanted mining to become a "very good, stable supplement" to the country's overwhelming dependence on the fisheries industry. Yet in 2021 Greenland's new socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit government banned uranium mining on pollution grounds. Australian company Energy Transitions Minerals (ETM) sued Greenland and Denmark in 2023 for 76 billion kroner (£8.9 billion), equivalent to almost four times Greenland's GDP. The mining company claimed to have been robbed of future profits after its uranium project at Kuannersuit/Kvanefjeld was terminated. Danish courts have struck down most of ETM's claims as baseless and there has been a report of concerns ETM could declare bankruptcy and thereby potentially avoid paying the large legal fees. In a statement, ETM said its subsidiary GM "worked in good faith for over a decade, in close cooperation with the Greenlandic and Danish governments." It added that both governments had used GM to promote Greenland as a safe destination for mining investors.But research in 2025 labelled similar behavior "feigned victimization." Generally, this is where corporations perceive or position themselves victims of unfair processes rather than powerful participants concerned with profits.
Greenland Insists Defense Will Be Through NATO, Rejects Trump’s Takeover - In a statement released Monday, officials in Greenland said they will intensify efforts to make sure the Arctic territory’s defense is handled through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and that they “can in no way accept” President Donald Trump’s plan to take control of the Danish autonomous territory. The rebuke follows weeks of increasingly bellicose rhetoric from Trump, whotold reporters that he’d prefer to strike a deal for the island but that ‘We are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.” European leaders are backing Copenhagen and Nuuk, and a senior European Union official warned that any attempt to seize a NATO member’s territory by force would destroy the alliance. The island’s government said its new push for NATO-based defense was prompted by a joint declaration from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom affirming that only Greenland and Denmark can decide their future. “All NATO member states, including the United States, have a common interest in the defense of Greenland,” the government said, adding that its goal is to ensure that the territory’s security “must therefore be through NATO.” Copenhagen’s coalition in Nuuk explicitly ruled out Washington’s proposal, saying it “can in no way accept a U.S. takeover of Greenland.”Another statement released Monday framed the pledge as a response to the solidarity shown by the six NATO governments: “On the basis of the very positive declaration from the six NATO member states regarding Greenland, the Government of Greenland will intensify efforts to ensure that the defense of Greenland is carried out within NATO,” adding that “Greenland will always be part of the Western defense alliance.”Trump, however, has doubled down on his ambition. He says the United States must own Greenland to preventRussia or China from doing so. Over the weekend he told reporters that he would be “open to making a deal” with Copenhagen but that if a purchase proves impossible, Washington will do it “the hard way.” Trump framed his insistence as a binary choice: if the United States doesn’t seize the island, Russia or China will. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that the administration is exploring “a wide range of options” for acquiring the territory, including using military force.While the president portrays the island’s acquisition as a national-security imperative, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American attack on another NATO member would bring the entire alliance to collapse. Even Senator Tim Kaine, a moderate Democrat, said that Republicans and Democrats in Congress would unite to block any move to take Greenland by force. Additionally, it isn’t clear what the practical difference would be between the US taking over Greenland versus its existing treaty with Denmark. The 1951 U.S.-Danish Defense Agreement allows the U.S. “to improve and generally to fit the area for military use” in Greenland and to “construct, install, maintain, and operate facilities and equipment” there without the need for a transfer of ownership.Greenland, the world’s largest island with just 57,000 people, has been part of the Kingdom of Denmark for centuries. It gained home rule in 1979, and all parties in its parliament favor eventual independence. A U.S. military base at Thule has existed since World War II, and the island’s position between North America and Europe makes it a crucial node in the U.S. ballistic‑missile defense system. Greenland is also rich in rare earth minerals, another reason Washington wants control.Yet polls indicate that Greenlanders overwhelmingly oppose becoming Americans. “We don’t want to be Americans, we don’t want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders,” Prime Minister Jens‑Frederik Nielsen and leaders of the island’s parties said in a statement. The prime minister wrote on LinkedIn that Greenland is “a democratic society that makes our own decisions” and that the government’s actions are grounded in international law.
Denmark Says It's Clear Trump "Has A Desire To Conquer Greenland" After WH Meeting --President Trump said early Wednesday on Truth Social that anything less than full American control of Greenland would be "unacceptable" - and even cited its necessity in erecting the new Golden Dome missile defense system."The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!" Trump wrote.The statement was issued just ahead of Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's meeting with officials from the large far northern island and NATO member Denmark at the White House. "Militarily, without the vast power of the United States, much of which I built during my first term, and am now bringing to a new and even higher level, NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent – Not even close! They know that, and so do I," Trump continued. "NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES,” he asserted, adding that "anything less than that is unacceptable." Update(1145ET): The Greenland and Denmark delegations are at the White House where they are meeting with Vice President J.D. Vance. Denmark's defense minister is seeking to convince the Trump administration that a more robust joint NATO presence on the resource-rich, large island of Greenland is all that's needed - and not a full US takeover. By day's end we'll see whether Trump finds this very convincing. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland’s Vivian Motzfeldt are meeting with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.Hours ahead of the meeting, a report in NBC finally put a firm dollar figure to a potential purchase:The United States could have to pay as much as $700 billion if it were to achieve President Donald Trump’s goal of buying Greenland, according to three people familiar with the cost estimate.The estimate was generated by scholars and former U.S. officials as part of planning around Trump’s aspiration to acquire the 800,000-square-mile island as a strategic buffer in the Arctic against America’s top adversaries, these people said. It attaches a price tag of more than half the Defense Department’s annual budget to Trump’s national security priority, which has stoked anxiety across Europe and on Capitol Hill amid his rhetoric about seizing Greenland since he ordered a U.S. military raid to capture Venezuela’s president and his wife. As Polymarket has noted, Trump's offer to acquire Greenland - if this proves an accurate figure - would higher than the entire GDP of Denmark.
Trump Says US 'Needs' Greenland as Polling Shows the Idea Is Extremely Unpopular Among Americans - President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday that the US “needs” Greenland, as polls released the same day show that the idea of a US takeover of the Arctic territory is extremely unpopular among American voters.A poll from Quinnipiac University found that 89% of respondents oppose the US attempting to take over the island by military force, with just 9% in favor. It also found that 55% of American votersoppose the US purchasing Greenland, which could cost the US $700 billion, according to estimates.A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that just 17% of Americans support Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland, and only 4% agreed that it would be a “good idea” for the US to use military force to seize the Arctic territory. The idea is also extremely unpopular in Greenland, as a poll from last year found that 85% of Greenlanders don’t want to join the US.Trump has claimed that the US “needs” Greenland for national security purposes, but the US already has a military base in northwestern Greenland, the Pituffik Space Base, and is free to significantly expand its military presence on the island under an agreement the US and Denmark signed in 1951.The talking point that Trump and his allies are now going with is that if the US doesn’t take over Greenland, China or Russia could. “IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Greenland and Denmark’s foreign ministers at the White House on Wednesday, but the talks didn’t appear to make any progress as Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said there was still a “fundamental disagreement” over the Arctic island. “We didn’t manage to change the American position,” Rasmussen told reporters after the meeting. “It’s clear that the president has this wish of conquering Greenland. We made it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the kingdom.”
Republicans vow to block Donald Trump from seizing Greenland by force -- Senate Republicans are vowing to block any effort by President Trump to seize Greenland by military force, as Trump officials on Wednesday refused to back off their demands to control the island during a meeting with top diplomats at the White House. Republican senators are flummoxed by Trump’s insistence that he’s willing to use military force to seize control of Greenland from Denmark, something they fear will destroy the NATO alliance and give Russia a bigger advantage in its war against Ukraine. Two Republican senators — Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) — plan to travel to Copenhagen on Friday to assure the Danish prime minister that there would be strong Republican opposition to any effort by Trump to use military force to seize Greenland. “I’m going to remind them that we have coequal branches of government and I believe that there [is a] sufficient number of members, whether they speak up or not, that are concerned with this,” Tillis said of Trump’s threats. “The actual execution of anything that would involve a taking of a sovereign territory that is part of a sovereign nation, I think would be met with pretty substantial opposition in Congress,” he said. “Right now, people are trying to be deferential, but this is just an example of, whoever keeps on telling the president that this idea is achievable should not be in Washington, D.C.,” Tillis said. A Republican senator who requested anonymity said Trump’s talk of taking over Greenland has generated more opposition from Republicans in Congress because of the dire implications such an aggressive move would have for the future of NATO. “You see, more than in other incidents, pushback by Republican senators on this topic,” the lawmaker said. “I have no understanding how this is an idea to begin with,” the senator added with exasperation, warning that taking Greenland will undermine NATO and put Ukraine at greater risk. “We absolutely need NATO support Ukraine. Diminishing the capabilities of NATO to do that is a death knell to people in Ukraine,” the senator said. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday found that only 17 percent of Americans would support a U.S. takeover of Greenland. Only 4 percent of respondents said taking Greenland by force would be a good idea. And 66 percent of respondents said they worried efforts to acquire Greenland would damage NATO and U.S. relations with European allies.
Bacon says he would ‘lean’ toward Trump impeachment if Greenland invaded: ‘Utter buffoonery’ - Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Wednesday he’d consider impeaching President Trump if the U.S. decides to invade Greenland, which he described as “utter buffoonery.” “It’s ridiculous that this has to even be done,” Bacon told the Omaha World-Herald. “But when the president talks about taking Greenland one way or the other way every day this last week or so and that it’s unacceptable if Greenland refuses to be part of the United States, I felt like I needed to make a statement that Republicans disagree.”“It’s utter buffoonery to think that we should compel Greenland to be part of the United States,” he added.The Nebraska Republican’s comments come as Trump has ramped up rhetoric around annexing the semiautonomous Danish territory for “national security purposes,” despite pushback from lawmakers, Greenland, Denmark and other NATO allies. The Arctic island is rich with natural resources and serves as home to a U.S. Space Force base. Greenland’s alliance with Washington came to fruition after World War II and was solidified though the 1941 Defense of Greenland Treaty, which let the U.S. build bases, later formalized by the 1951 Defense Agreement with Denmark. “You don’t treat allies that way. You do that with Russia or China, Iran, but don’t treat your best friends like a piece of [excrement]” Bacon said of the Trump administration’s swipes at Greenland and its officials. “That’s what he’s doing. I think it’s totally wrong to treat your best friends like this and bully them,” the lawmaker added.
Trump floats tariffs on countries against US acquiring Greenland -- Donald Trump on Friday floated slapping potential tariffs on countries that oppose the U.S. acquiring the Danish territory of Greenland. Trump made the remarks after describing threatening European allies, including France and Germany, with 25 percent tariffs if they did not pay more for prescription drugs. “I went through country after country,” Trump said at a White House roundtable on rural health care. “I just went one after another.” “I may do that for Greenland on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland because we need Greenland for national security,” he said. The president’s remarks come one day after troops from various European countries, including the U.K., France, Germany, Norway and Sweden, arrived in Greenland amid Trump’s intensifying calls for the U.S to control the territory. On Wednesday, Denmark announced it was increasing its military presence in and around Greenland. Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with their Danish and Greenlandic counterparts at the White House on Wednesday, but the two sides did not come to an agreement over the future of Greenland. Trump said hours before the meeting that anything less than U.S. control of Greenland was “unacceptable.”
Senator Kelly sues Pentagon, Pete Hegseth over 'illegal orders' demotion threat --Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) filed a lawsuit against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday over efforts to censure the senator and lower his retirement rank after he participated in a video calling on service members to reject unlawful orders. Kelly argues the Pentagon’s bid to reduce his retirement rank and military pension would “trample on protections” the Constitution lays out for legislative independence, contending the executive branch has never before sought to impose military sanctions on a U.S. lawmaker for engaging in “disfavored political speech.” He asked a federal judge to block the efforts and declare them unlawful to “preserve the status of a coequal Congress and an apolitical military.” “The First Amendment forbids the government and its officials from punishing disfavored expression or retaliating against protected speech,” the complaint reads. “That prohibition applies with particular force to legislators speaking on matters of public policy.” A Pentagon official told The Hill on Monday that the department is “aware of the litigation.” “However, as a matter of policy, the Department does not comment on ongoing litigation,” the official said in a statement.
Rubio announces aid for Cuba: Trump 'stands with the Cuban people' -Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that the U.S. was sending the “first humanitarian shipment” to Cuba to help residents recovering from Hurricane Melissa.“We are working with the Catholic Church and partners to ensure aid reaches the Cuban people directly – not the illegitimate regime,” Rubio wrote on the social platform X. “The Trump Administration stands with the Cuban people.”Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Santiago de Cuba last October as a Category 3 storm, battering the island with heavy rainfall and strong winds. Officials reported collapsed houses, blocked mountain roads, and roofs blown off buildings, with the heaviest destruction seen in the southwest and northwest parts of the country.A December report from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies described the humanitarian situation as “severe,” noting that close to 2.2 million people in Cuba had been affected and access to safe shelter, clean water, electricity, transportation and communication was limited. Days later, Rubio announced that the State Department had issued a formal Declaration of Humanitarian Assistance to aid in recovery efforts. The U.S. maintains an economic embargo that bars most commerce with Cuba but that does contain some exceptions, including for exports of food, medicine, and other humanitarian goods, as well as disaster response.
Sen. Chris Murphy criticizes ICE operations as inhumane, illegal -Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) went after the Trump administration on Sunday for its handling of immigration operations, saying “the way in which [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)] is operating today is inhumane and illegal.” “Of course, you need a domestic enforcement mechanism for the immigration laws of this country, but the way in which ICE is operating today is inhumane and illegal. They rounded up a 16-year-old kid in Meriden, Conn., weeks before he was about to graduate, in the country legally, put him in detention for six months,” Murphy told NBC News’s Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press.”“And he got let out right before Christmas because the administration wouldn’t even show up in court to defend what they had done. And that is happening thousands of times over in this country. Peaceful, legal immigrants being put in detention. That’s not a system that anybody in this country wants to fund,” he addedThe Connecticut Democrat’s comments follow an ICE officer fatally shooting a woman in Minneapolis, an incident that has caused mass outrage. In response to the video of the shooting last week, Murphy said on the social platform X that his party “cannot vote for a DHS budget that doesn’t restrain the growing lawlessness of this agency,” referring to the Department of Homeland Security.Anger toward the Trump administration over its immigration agenda was present throughout President Trump’s first year back in office, but it exploded after Renee Nicole Macklin Good’s killing in Minneapolis last week. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has said Macklin Good was committing “domestic terrorism.”“I want to connect the dots. The rush to call Renee Good a terrorist, the rewriting of Jan 6th – it’s all part of Trump’s campaign to use violence to protect his power,” Murphy said Thursday on X.Murphy’s Democratic colleague in the Senate, Sen. Tina Smith (Minn.), on Sunday said she believes the Trump administration is attempting to “cover up” the woman’s shooting by promoting a narrative prior to the completion of a full investigation.
Lawmakers challenge latest Noem order limiting visits to ICE facilities -Lawmakers are back in court after an earlier legal victory, challenging the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) after its secretary, Kristi Noem, issued a second order seeking to limit their ability to make unannounced visits to immigration detention facilities. Members of Congress last month won their lawsuit after challenging a June DHS policy seeking to require them to give seven days notice of any intended visit. The lawmaker’s latest filing accuses DHS of having “secretly reimposed” the policy in an order signed by Noem last Thursday. “On Saturday, January 9—three days after U.S. citizen Renee Good was shot dead by an ICE agent in Minneapolis—three members of Congress from the Minnesota delegation, with this Court’s order in hand, attempted to conduct an oversight visit of an ICE facility near Minneapolis,” the filing states, referring to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Only upon showing up at the facility were they informed Noem had again tried to impose the policy, they stated. Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) is the lead plaintiff on the lawsuit, which is joined by 11 other Democrats, including the ranking members on the House oversight, judiciary and homeland security committees. In a joint statement, the plaintiffs said, “rather than complying with the law, the Department of Homeland Security is attempting to get around this order by re-imposing the same unlawful policy. This is unacceptable. Oversight is a core responsibility of Members of Congress, and a constitutional duty we do not take lightly. It is not something the executive branch can turn on or off at will.” Congress in 2020 inserted language in an appropriations bill barring the DHS from using funds “to prevent” members of Congress “from entering, for the purpose of conducting oversight,” any DHS facility “used to detain or otherwise house aliens.” That provision served as the basis of the December decision from U.S. District Court Jia Cobb, who determined that lawmakers could not be denied entry for visits. The latest filing from lawmakers would start the process to have her strike down the latest order and also asks for an emergency hearing. In Noem’s latest version of the policy, she argued DHS does have the right to impose limits on visits given the influx of money given to the department under the Big Beautiful Bill last year. “Unannounced visits require pulling ICE officers away from their normal duties. Moreover, there is an increasing trend of replacing legitimate oversight activities with circus-like publicity stunts, all which creates a chaotic environment with heightened emotions,” she wrote in the new order. The lawmakers argue that Noem has no way of teasing out appropriation streams to ensure her directive is not violating the existing underlying policy. “It is practically impossible that the development, promulgation, communication, and implementation of this policy has been, and will be, accomplished—as required—without using a single dollar of annually appropriated funds,” they wrote.
Marco Rubio argues US cannot return Venezuelans despite court order Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a federal judge he is unable to locate the more than 100 Venezuelans the Trump administration sent to be imprisoned in El Salvador, arguing against further hearings with the men as it would jeopardize “extraordinarily delicate” discussions with Venezuela’s new leadership. Rubio’s declaration, filed Monday night, is a remarkable pushback from the secretary after the Trump administration was ordered to facilitate the return of the men, who have since been released to Venezuela as part of a July prisoner exchange. The December ruling from U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg noted that before they were flown out of the country amid a court hearing challenging their removal, the men had sought a court order to bar their deportation. He said the government had “secretly spirited away” the men, defying their right to due process and to make their case for why they should be able to remain in the country, including to seek asylum and challenge allegations of gang membership.But Rubio wrote Monday that the Trump administration doesn’t know where the men are and argued any hearings “would risk material damage to U.S. foreign policy interests in Venezuela.”“We understood at the time that the regime released these individuals. Given the passage of time, the U.S. government does not know—nor does it have any way of knowing—the whereabouts of class members, including whether anyone has departed Venezuela or whether the regime subsequently took anyone back into custody,” he wrote. He also said the U.S. was in a difficult position in the country after toppling its former leader, Nicolás Maduro. “In the wake of this operation, the situation in Venezuela remains fluid. … These efforts entail ongoing, intensive, and extraordinarily delicate engagement with elements within the regime of Maduro’s successor, so-called Acting President Delcy Rodríguez,” Rubio wrote.
Minnesota sues Trump administration to block federal immigration enforcement surge - Minnesota state and city officials have sued the Trump administration to block the statewide surge of federal immigration enforcement agents in the wake of a woman’s fatal shooting by a federal officer last week. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said at a press conference Monday that the state has been unlawfully targeted because of its diversity and “differences of opinion” with the federal government, saying it amounts to a “federal invasion.” He listed the killing of Renee Good by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer as one consequence of the influx of federal immigration enforcement efforts. “This has to stop,” Ellison said. “Let’s be clear: it never should have started. These agents have no good reason to be here.” The state’s lawsuit, filed Monday in federal court, is joined by the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. It asks a judge to declare the surge unlawful and block its implementation, in addition to a series of specific tactics used by federal agents. The state argues that the Trump administration is infringing on its rights under the 10th Amendment and retaliating against the city and state in violation of the First Amendment, while violating federal law. Local officials confronted the administration’s claims that the surge was needed to combat fraud. “In reality, the massive deployment of armed agents to Minnesota bears no connection to that stated objective and instead reflects an alarming escalation of the Trump Administration’s retaliatory actions towards the state,” they wrote in the suit. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) attacked the state’s Democratic leadership on Monday. “It really is astounding that the Left can miraculously rediscover the Tenth Amendment when they don’t want federal law enforcement officers to enforce federal law,” DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. “President Trump’s job is to protect the American people and enforce the law — no matter who your mayor, governor, or state attorney general is,” she added. “That’s what the Trump administration is doing; we have the Constitution on our side on this, and we look forward to proving that in court.” The suit names DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and other federal officials as defendants. The administration has said some 2,000 DHS agents have been deployed to the Twin Cities, which significantly exceeds the sworn police officers serving Minneapolis and St. Paul, the local officials said. “Being free from unlawful seizures, excessive force and retaliation are not a list of aspirations Minnesotans deserve; these are rights enshrined within state and federal laws,” the complaint reads.
Democrat files articles of impeachment against Noem --Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) on Wednesday introduced articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, citing the secretary’s handling of the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration crackdown. At a press conference on Wednesday, Kelly outlined three impeachment articles against the secretary, accusing Noem of obstruction of Congress, “violation of public trust” and “self-dealing.” “Secretary Noem has brought her reign of terror to the Chicagoland area, L.A., New Orleans, Charlotte, Durham, and communities north to south to east to west,” Kelly said at the press conference. “She needs to be held accountable for her actions.” The first impeachment article alleges Noem denied Kelly and other members of Congress “oversight of ICE detention facilities,” the congresswoman said at her presser. Kelly explained the second article, which accuses Noem of violating public trust, by saying Noem “directed DHS agents to arrest people without warrants, use tear gas against citizens, and ignore due process.” Kelly said Noem frequently says “she’s taking murderers and rapists off our streets, but none of the 614 people arrested during Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago has been charged or convicted of murder or rape.” On the third impeachment article, which accuses the secretary of self-dealing, Kelly said Noem “abused her power for personal benefit,” and “steered a federal contract to a new firm run by a friend.” Kelly, who is running for the Senate in Illinois, announced her intention to file the impeachment articles last week, after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer fatally shot 37-year-old Renee Good in Minneapolis. “Renee Nicole Good is dead because Secretary Noem allowed her DHS agents to run amok,” Kelly said at the press conference Wednesday. “Families are forever torn apart.” “I want to tell her right now: Secretary Noem, you have violated your oath of office, and there will be consequences. I am watching you, members of Congress are watching you, the American people most importantly are watching you. And most of all, we are not liking what we’re seeing,” Kelly said. While the effort is unlikely to go anywhere in the GOP-controled House, the congresswoman said that as of Wednesday morning the measure has the support of almost 70 members of Congress, and she expects more to sign on.
ICE officer who shot Renee Good in Minneapolis suffered internal bleeding, DHS says - The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer who shot Renee Good, a Minneapolis woman whose death has sparked outrage across the country, suffered from internal bleeding after the incident, a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) official confirmed with The Hill. The extent of ICE officer Jonathan Ross’s bleeding remains unclear. Video taken of the incident showed Ross walking up and down the street after Good was shot and killed. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said following the shooting on Jan. 7 that Ross was hospitalized after the shooting. Noem claimed Good struck the officer with her SUV, which she later called an act of “domestic terrorism.” “The officer was hit by the vehicle,” Noem told reporters at a press conference Jan. 7. “She hit him. He went to the hospital. A doctor did treat him. He has been released.” Good’s death drew condemnation and has expanded Minnesota’s growing tensions with the federal government, which was previously focused on a growing welfare fraud scandal.
Donald Trump ending federal funding for 'sanctuary cities' Feb. 1 ---President Trump announced early Wednesday that his administration will strip federal funding from sanctuary cities and states, in line with policies he promoted on the campaign trail.“EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY FIRST, NO MORE PAYMENTS WILL BE MADE BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO STATES FOR THEIR CORRUPT CRIMINAL PROTECTION CENTERS KNOWN AS SANCTUARY CITIES,” the president wrote in a post on Truth Social.“ALL THEY DO IS BREED CRIME AND VIOLENCE! If States want them, they will have to pay for them! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!” he added.The post follows his Tuesday speech at the Detroit Economic Club when he said sanctuary cities “do everything possible to protect criminals at the expense of American citizens.” Sanctuary jurisdictions often limit local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities. Some also provide social benefits to immigrants lacking legal status.
House Democrat introducing legislation to abolish ICE: ‘Beyond reform’ - Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) is making a push to dismantle Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), calling the federal law enforcement agency “beyond reform.” Thanedar plans to introduce the “Abolish ICE Act” this week, which his office said would dissolve the agency and end its enforcement authority. “We must reform ICE, but it looks at this stage, folks, that ICE is beyond reform,” he said during a news conference Wednesday. “ICE is totally out of control.” He also said Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should “face the consequences” and be impeached, arguing federal agencies were able to handle immigration enforcement effectively before ICE was established in 2003. “We can do this without ICE,” Thanedar said. “We do not need the murders. We do not need this paramilitary organization’s members on our streets terrorizing U.S. citizens, terrorizing moms [and] terrorizing our children.” Thanedar’s proposal comes as anger over ICE’s tactics has grown after an ICE officer fatally shot 37-year-old Renee Good in Minneapolis last week. On Wednesday, there was another shooting involving a federal ICE officer in the city; an officer shot a Venezuelan migrant, who the Department of Homeland Security said was attempting to evade a traffic stop. Both the migrant, who was shot in the leg, and the officer were hospitalized. The two shootings inflamed tensions over the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, and Democrats have vocally criticized the presence of federal law enforcement officers in cities across the U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), who represents the district where Good was shot, slammed ICE as an “occupying force” that is conducting itself in “lawless” fashion. Recent polling suggests there may be public support for eliminating ICE, which has more than 20,000 employees and is running a nationwide recruitment campaign. An Economist/YouGov poll released Tuesday found that 46 percent of respondents support abolishing ICE, while 43 percent are against it. Congressional Democrats have floated other proposals to rein in ICE in the wake of Good’s shooting, including an end to qualified immunity and withholding support for an appropriations package that would include more funding for the Department of Homeland Security. “We should not be giving money for an increase in the ICE budget,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said Friday. “We should be fighting this.”
US will suspend immigrant visa processing from 75 countries over public assistance concerns | The Hill (AP) — The State Department said Wednesday it will suspend the processing of immigrant visas for citizens of 75 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Russia and Somalia, whose nationals the Trump administration has deemed likely to require public assistance while living in the United States. The State Department, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said it had instructed consular officers to halt immigrant visa applications from the countries affected in accordance with a broader order issued in November that tightened rules around potential immigrants who might become “public charges” in the U.S. The step builds on earlier immigration and travel bans by the administration on nearly 40 countries and is part of President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to tighten U.S. entry standards for foreigners. “The Trump administration is bringing an end to the abuse of America’s immigration system by those who would extract wealth from the American people,” the department said in a statement. “Immigrant visa processing from these 75 countries will be paused while the State Department reassess immigration processing procedures to prevent the entry of foreign nationals who would take welfare and public benefits.” The suspension, which will begin Jan. 21, will not apply to applicants seeking non-immigrant visas, or temporary tourist or business visas, who make up the vast majority of visa seekers. Demand for non-immigrant visas is expected to rise dramatically in the coming months and years due to the upcoming 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics both of which the U.S. will host or co-host. A separate notice sent to all U.S. embassies and consulates said that non-immigrant visa applicants should be screened for the possibility that they might seek public benefits in the United States. “With the uncovering of massive public benefits fraud across the United States, the Trump administration is laser-focused on eliminating and preventing fraud in public benefits programs,” said the cable that referred specifically to most non-immigrant visa applications and was sent on Monday. The cable, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, urged consular officers to ensure that foreigners wanting to travel to the U.S. “have been fully vetted and screened” for whether they may rely on public services before they are issued a visa..Trump inks executive order on critical minerals - President Donald Trump on Wednesday inked an executive order that sets up a process for the U.S. to secure supply chains for critical minerals and mineral-derived products that China currently controls.The order, according to the White House, is the result of an investigation the Trump administration launched last year to determine whether U.S. imports of processed critical minerals and the finished products that contain those materials should be subject to higher tariffs.The directive empowers Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to work with other senior executive branch officials to “jointly pursue negotiation of agreements” to address the nation’s vulnerability that results from reliance on other countries for processed critical minerals and their derivative products. Officials are also empowered to weigh the use of price floors under the order.“In negotiating, the Secretary and the Trade Representative should consider price floors for trade in critical minerals and other trade-restricting measures,” the order states.
Schatz says US 'absolutely rolled' by China-Canada trade deal - Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said Friday Americans would be hurt by a trade deal between China and Canada as foreign nations seek new trade partners amid the Trump administration’s tariff wars. “We just got absolutely rolled in this Canada – China deal. A stark foreign policy failure with domestic economic consequences,” Schatz wrote in a post on social platform X. “The most basic principle in politics and geopolitics is loyalty to friends. And we weren’t just disloyal – we were hostile. So here we are,” he added. Under the deal, Canada dropped its 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and raised its cap on EV imports in exchange for Beijing lowering tariffs on Canadian farm products, including canola seeds. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the “historic” visit to Beijing heralded a “new strategic partnership” that “created massive opportunities for both our peoples.” President Trump acknowledged the deal on Friday and encouraged Carney to build ties with China. “That’s OK. That’s what he should be doing. I mean, it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that,” Trump told reporters.
Trump says Canada should do trade deals with China - President Trump said Friday that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney should be making a trade deal with China, an economic U.S. adversary the president has been going after during his second term. “That’s OK. That’s what he should be doing. I mean, it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that,” Trump told reporters in response to a question about what he thought of Canada and China announcing a trade deal between the two countries. Canada and China struck an initial trade deal Friday, cutting tariffs on electric vehicles and canola. According to The Associated Press, Canada will initially allow in a maximum of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1 percent tariff. Meanwhile, China is expected to lower its tariff on its canola seed by March 1. The deal came together as Carney met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the first trip to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Trump has also waged a trade war on Canada during his first administration, and he has slapped a number of tariffs on China.
Donald Trump calls Elizabeth Warren after she rips his policies in speech - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Monday that President Trump called her after she criticized his policies on affordability in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington. “This morning, I gave a speech noting how Donald Trump is driving up costs for families, sowing terror and chaos in our communities, and abusing his power to prosecute anyone who criticizes him,” Warren said in a statement. “In my remarks, I made it clear that despite promising to lower costs On Day One, Trump has done nothing but raise costs for families. I said that if he really wants to get something done, including capping credit card interest rates or lowering housing costs, he would use his leverage and pick up the phone,” she continued. Warren said Trump called her after and that she delivered the “same message on affordability to him directly.” “I told him that Congress can pass legislation to cap credit card rates if he will actually fight for it. I also urged him to get House Republicans to pass the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act, which passed the Senate with unanimous support and would build more housing and lower costs,” she said. A White House official confirmed on Monday that the call took place, describing it as “productive.” “President Trump and Sen. Warren had a productive call about credit card interest rates and housing affordability for the American people,” the official said. Warren’s speech and statement come days after Trump called for credit card companies to cap interest rates at 10 percent. “Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more, which festered unimpeded during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration. AFFORDABILITY!” the president wrote Friday in a post on Truth Social. The White House has sought to reclaim the issue of affordability ahead of the midterms. Despite Trump and Republicans winning on the issue in 2024, Democrats successfully messaged on the issue in a number of off-year and special elections last year.
Republican centrists and populists combine to kill series of GOP labor bills -- Republican centrists and populists in the House blocked a series of GOP labor bills on the chamber floor Tuesday, marking the latest blow to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and GOP leaders, who are increasingly losing their grip on the restive Republican conference. The House was poised to vote Tuesday evening on three Republican bills designed to ease regulations on businesses — partisan bills that were expected to pass given the GOP’s long-standing appetite for deregulation. The first of those bills, sponsored by Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), would have changed the way work hours are calculated by excluding certain voluntary training sessions. It hit a roadblock when six Republicans joined every voting Democrat in opposition — a number sufficient to sink the legislation, given the Republicans’ razor-thin House majority. Reps. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.), Riley Moore (W.Va.), Chris Smith (N.J.), and Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) voted against the Hinson bill, with Republican leaders failing to convince the members to flip after holding the vote open on the House floor for more than 45 minutes. The failure of the bill prompted GOP leaders to scrap their plans to vote Tuesday evening on two other labor-related bills. The first, sponsored by Rep. Mark Messmer (R-Ind.), would alter the way overtime pay is calculated by excluding consideration of the value of employer-sponsored coverage of child care or elder care. The second, sponsored by Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.), would modify and expand the definition of a tipped employee. “We’re totally in control of the House,” Johnson said. “Look, this was Education and the Workforce Committee work. There was a couple of people who had concerns about the bills that were not here earlier today to let us know that.” “This is life with a small margin. We’re not deterred in any way,” Johnson said, adding that the House GOP will work on the issues to get the bills back on the floor. Supporters of all three bills argued they would help cut burdensome red tape without hurting workers. But GOP critics had a different view, warning they would hurt workers already struggling to make ends meet in a volatile economy. Moore, whose West Virginia district is the most Republican-leaning of all the six rebels, noted his background working as a welder. “I don’t like the idea of people potentially getting taken advantage of doing free training, and they’re off time, not making an hourly rate,” Moore said. “It’s optional, but there could be undue pressure that’s put into place for some of these folks, which I don’t particularly like.”
Supreme Court rules House Republican can challenge mail ballot deadline - The Supreme Court on Wednesday revived an Illinois Congress member’s lawsuit over a state mail-in ballot law, paving the way for political candidates nationwide to challenge election laws more easily in their states. The justices ruled 7-2 that Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) has the legal right to sue Illinois over its ability to count mail-in ballots received after Election Day, a practice targeted by President Trump and his allies. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion over the dissents of two of the court’s liberals: Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson. “Candidates, in short, are not ‘mere bystanders’ in their own elections,” Roberts wrote. “They have an obvious personal stake in how the result is determined and regarded.” The legality of the Illinois mail-in ballot practice was not before the justices. But lower courts ruled Bost did not have standing to bring the case after finding the votes likely would not much impact his own race.
Trump zooms in on health care affordability as ACA fight goes nowhere - President Trump is looking to harness the affordability argument and make health care a winning Republican issue for the midterm elections in November. Trump on Thursday released a health care affordability blueprint that he is pressuring Congress to enact, aimed at lowering drug prices and insurance premiums. The framework, which Trump dubbed “The Great Healthcare Plan,” includes many proposals that Trump or Congress have pushed in recent years, but it does not call for an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced subsidies, which expired at the end of last year. Trump’s blueprint left much for Congress to sort out, but doesn’t appear to address the spike in out-of-pocket costs that is hitting people who used to rely on those subsidies. That could make it an uphill battle for Republicans to make health care a winning issue. Vulnerable Republicans have been trying to find a way to get the rest of their caucus on board with an extension, recognizing the massive political liability of letting the subsidies expire. But bipartisan Senate negotiations appear to be going nowhere, and several lawmakers expressed skepticism that the group could overcome the same thorny issues that have loomed over the subsidy extension for months. On Friday morning, Trump followed up his health plan with a roundtable to tout the GOP’s Rural Health Transformation Program, which recently began distributing its first round of grants to states. The $50 billion fund was added as a last-minute sweetener to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and as a backstop for states that are set to lose nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding over the next decade because of the legislation’s cuts. The money was key to bringing some reluctant Republicans from rural states — including Alaska — on board to support the bill. Alaska was awarded $272 million, more than any state besides Texas. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), who is in a competitive reelection race, appeared with Trump at the White House Friday to tout the funding and praise Trump’s health plan. “These funds will go to empowering rural hospitals, strengthening their workforce, modernizing facilities and technology, and ensuring that rural Americans get world-class health care in their own community, right smack in their own community, like they’ve never had it before,” Trump said. He also referenced the frequent Democratic attacks on Republicans for supporting wealthy Americans and corporations at the expense of rural areas, which were a key part of the coalition that helped Trump get elected. “For those that were trying to make a case that we weren’t taking care of the rural community, I’m all about the rural community. We won the rural communities by numbers that nobody has ever won them before, and we’re taking care of those great people,” Trump said.
Cassidy on RFK Jr. vaccine schedule change: ‘Let’s just take care of people and move beyond your ideology’ --Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) expressed further frustration Sunday with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changing the childhood vaccine schedule.The CDC, overseen by Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., reduced the number of recommended vaccines for children from 17 to 11 on Monday, putting it in line with Denmark. “Let’s just take care of people and move beyond your ideology,” Cassidy, a medical doctor, told host Jacqui Heinrich on “Fox News Sunday.” The Louisiana Republican, chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, cast a key vote supporting Kennedy’s nomination for HHS secretary in February.The move by the CDC came after President Trump ordered health officials to compare the childhood vaccine schedule with other schedules among “peer nations” and to consider recommending fewer shots. Under the new guidance, the CDC recommends that all children get vaccinated against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, Hib, pneumococcal conjugate, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, HPV and chickenpox. The CDC no longer recommends that every child receives a shot for rotavirus, COVID-19, influenza, meningococcal disease, hepatitis A and hepatitis B, instead saying that physicians and parents should decide “based on individual characteristics” of the child. In a statement, Kennedy said the update to the schedule “protects children, respects families, and rebuilds trust in public health.” But Cassidy, who has long backed vaccinations, blasted the change to the schedule on Monday. “The vaccine schedule IS NOT A MANDATE,” Cassidy wrote on the social platform X. “It’s a recommendation giving parents the power. Changing the pediatric vaccine schedule based on no scientific input on safety risks and little transparency will cause unnecessary fear for patients and doctors, and will make America sicker.”Cassidy added Sunday that health officials who changed the schedule “totally bypassed” normal procedures by not utilizing a scientific review committee and not going through the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Kennedy previously removed all 17 members of the ACIP panel in June and appointed a trove of loyalists to replace them.“I wish the people making this decision knew what I knew,” Cassidy said.
Federal judge orders HHS to restore $12m in funding to American Academy of Pediatrics - A federal judge late Sunday ordered the Trump administration to restore nearly $12 million in grants to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), after the organization’s funding was abruptly cut last month. Judge Beryl Howell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia granted a preliminary injunction that will restore the grants and block the cuts from taking effect while the case proceeds. Howell concluded that the Department of Health and Human Services had a likely “retaliatory motive” for the terminations, due to the AAP’s outspoken opposition to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “This is not a case about whether AAP or HHS is right or even has the better position on vaccinations and gender-affirming care for children, or any other public health policy,” Howell wrote. “This is a case about whether the federal government has exercised power in a manner designed to chill public health policy debate by retaliating against a leading and generally trusted pediatrician member professional organization focused on improving the health of children.” The AAP, the nation’s largest professional organization of doctors who treat children, said the canceled grants funded initiatives including preventing sudden unexpected infant death, improving early detection of developmental disabilities and birth defects, and strengthening pediatric care in rural communities. The grants represent almost two-thirds of AAP’s federal funding, and if allowed to take effect, would have forced the organization to lay off about ten percent of its staff. AAP in its lawsuit alleged the cuts were made in retaliation for the group speaking out against the Trump administration’s positions and actions, including changes to vaccine policy and gender-affirming care for minors. AAP alleged a First Amendment violation designed to chill the organization’s speech on vaccines and other important public-health issues that differ from the views of the current HHS leadership. HHS said that the grants were cut because they no longer aligned with the department’s priorities. The agency defended the decision, saying it was protecting taxpayers from waste, and criticized the AAP’s hiring of progressive-aligned legal organization Democracy Forward. “HHS is not obligated to fulfill AAP’s employment or spending desires with American taxpayer dollars,” agency general counsel Mike Stuart said on X. “The arrogance behind this lawsuit is staggering — AAP seems to believe it’s their money to spend as they please. Wrong! It’s our money, and it’s HHS’s duty to protect taxpayers from wasteful spending,” Stuart wrote.
States, health organizations reject new CDC vaccine guidance --A growing number of states are pushing back against sweeping changes to the US childhood vaccine schedule. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced an overhaul of the immunization schedule January 5, paring the number of universally recommended immunizations from 17 to 11.Since then, at least 17 states have announced that they won’t follow new CDC vaccine schedule: California, Colorado,Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts,Michigan Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont,Washington, and Wisconsin.Instead, these states say they plan to follow vaccine guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), which continues to recommend immunization plans approved by the CDC prior to the Trump administration. “The decision to change CDC’s childhood immunization schedule is reckless and deeply dangerous,” said Massachusetts Public Health Commissioner Robbie Goldstein, MD, PhD, in a statementannouncing the state’s rejection of the new vaccine schedule.The new CDC vaccine schedule, based on immunization policy in Denmark, “abandons decades of rigorous, evidence-based science and replaces clear public health guidance with confusion and doubt,” Goldstein said. “At a moment when we are seeing measles outbreaks, the resurgence of whooping cough, and a flu season that has already taken the lives of children in our state, this ill-advised federal action puts families in an impossible position and puts infants, children, and communities at risk.”Minnesota health officials said they want to help alleviate confusion over vaccines.“Aligning our recommendations with professional medical associations helps provide clarity and stability for families and providers by using a proven set of recommendations that doctors, and other clinicians, already know and trust,” Minnesota Commissioner of Health Brooke Cunningham, MD, PhD, said in a Minnesota Department of Health news release.Several California counties—including Los Angeles County, Santa Barbara County, and San Diego County—also rejected the new CDC schedule. In addition, Kansas City’s Children’s Mercy Hospital, a pediatric hospital that serves both Missouri and Kansas, announced that it plans to continue following AAP vaccine guidance.Late last week, the AAP and more than 200 health groups sent a letter to Congress urging lawmakers “to conduct swift and robust oversight regarding the abrupt changes to the U.S. childhood vaccine schedule.”In their letter, the groups urge Congress “to investigate why the schedule was changed, why credible scientific evidence was ignored, and why the committee charged with advising the HHS [Health and Human Services] Secretary on immunizations did not discuss the schedule changes as a part of their public meeting process.”Health officials, largely in blue states, have banded together in recent months to protect vaccine access and provide evidence-based health information to their residents.California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii formed the West Coast Health Alliance in early September. Just weeks later, nine states announced the formation of the Northeast Public Health Collaborative, which includes Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, as well as Baltimore and New York City.Fifteen states and territories led by Democratic governors have united to create the Governor’s Public Health Alliance, which includes California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Guam, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington.
RFK Jr. appoints 2 vocal opponents of vaccine use in pregnancy to federal advisory board - Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. today appointed two obstetricians-gynecologists to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Both appointees have a history of questioning vaccine safety in pregnancy, and one has erroneously claimed COVID-19 vaccines caused miscarriages.Adam Urato, MD, of UMass Memorial Health, is the first listed appointee to ACIP. In October of 2024, he wrote on X, “CDC & ACOG recommend 4 vaccines in pregnancy: Flu, Tdap, RSV, & COVID. My patients often ask: ‘How do we know that all these vaccines won't have adverse effects on my baby & me?’ The answer is: ‘We don't.’ Women's vax concerns should be acknowledged & their choices supported.”All four of the vaccines Urato listed have been proven safe for use in pregnant women. The other appointee is Kimberly Biss, MD, a clinician at Women’s Care in St. Petersburg, Florida. In multiple interviews, Biss said her practice saw miscarriage rates go up by 100% after the introduction of prenatal COVID-19 vaccination. Several studies have debunked the myth that COVID-19 vaccines are linked to miscarriages. Biss also said children should not be vaccinated against COVID-19 because the risk of death from infection is too low. Urato and Biss are the latest additions to the ACIP by Kennedy, who began overhauling the group in June 2025, when he fired the 17 members who had been appointed by the Biden administration to make vaccine recommendations. Many of the ACIP members who’ve since been appointed by Kennedy have expressed anti-vaccine views, and the newly reconstituted group has reversed several long-standing vaccine recommendations.In a press release, Deputy Secretary of HHS and Acting Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Jim O’Neill said, “President Trump asked us to bring the childhood immunization schedule in line with gold-standard science. ACIP is doing just that. Our new ACIP members have the clinical expertise to make decisions driven by evidence, not dogma.”
Trump administration slashes billions in mental health, addiction funding -The Trump administration reportedly sent out notices late Tuesday announcing it was cutting hundreds of grants funding mental health and addiction services. NPR reported Wednesday that several programs were informed late Tuesday that their federal funding through the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) had been cut after officials determined their missions no longer aligned with that of the Trump administration.The outlet was unable to confirm the scale of the cuts, though sources said they could be as high as $2 billion.The Hill has reached out to the White House and the SAMHSA for confirmation.Other voices in the mental health and addiction space confirmed NPR’s reporting, including the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI).“These cuts are disheartening and cruel, and they threaten the life-saving work of hundreds of organizations that provide critical mental health support across the United States. Addressing our mental health and substance use crises in this country has never been political, which is why it continues to have bipartisan support in Congress,” NAMI CEO Daniel H. Gillison Jr. said in a statement Wednesday. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) demanded Wednesday that the funding be restored immediately.“As American communities work tirelessly to turn the tide on the opioid and addiction epidemic, President Trump is turning his back on struggling families and cutting off support for folks who need it most,” Baldwin said in a statement. “President Trump and RFK Jr.’s decision to cut off these programs cold turkey is not just reckless, it’s outright dangerous for Americans who are dealing with some serious issues.”
US cuts to HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa pose global risk, experts say -After HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) became available in Rakai, Uganda, rates of orphanhood due to HIV/AIDS dropped 70%, from 21.5% in 2003 to 6.3% in 2022, highlighting the importance of continued US funding from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and similar organizations in sub-Saharan Africa.An estimated 10.3 million children in sub-Saharan Africa have lost a parent to HIV-related causes, making up 75% of such orphans in the world, said the Columbia University–led authors of the Ugandastudy, published last week in The Lancet Global Health. And cuts to PEPFAR and other HIV/AIDS programs by the US government could lead another 2.8 million children to lose their parents to the virus. “Scale-up of ART in this Ugandan setting drove substantive declines in orphanhood incidence,” the study authors wrote. “Yet, a considerable burden of orphanhood persisted in 2022, particularly among adolescents. To consolidate these gains, sustained investment and adaptation of HIV programmes are crucial to mitigate the ongoing risk of orphanhood for this vulnerable population.” In Africa, an estimated 387,000 people died of AIDS-related conditions in 2024, according to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This is just one example of the potentially deep and wide-ranging detriments that slashing US aid to not only Africans but infected and at-risk people around the world, HIV experts warn.Shortly after taking office, US President Donald Trump issued executive actions that upended many foreign-assistance programs, such as the shuttering of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a major funder of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment in developing countries since 1961. USAID was the primary government implementer for PEPFAR, which has incurred dramatic cuts to its funding.The announcement of the cuts prompted warnings from around the world about the potential consequences. In the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, researcher Christopher Jimu in Zimbabwe said that the cuts jeopardize the significant global HIV milestones achieved in the past few decades. “These advancements remain precarious, especially for vulnerable groups such as sex workers, people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender individuals, incarcerated populations, and those in other closed settings,” he wrote. “Additionally, women, young people, migrants, refugees, and internally displaced persons face heightened risks due to social and structural barriers.” Boghuma Titanji, MD, PhD, an HIV specialist at Emory University School of Medicine, said that, in addition to jeopardizing patient’s HIV suppression, a lack of access to antiretrovirals can lead to the development of antiviral resistance when patients start rationing their supplies. “They are taking one pill every three days to stretch out the supply,” Titanji said. “So the virus is being exposed to a less-than-therapeutic dose of the drug and able to more easily select for drug-resistance mutations and overcome the effect of the drug.” Compounding the problem, Africa has fewer options for second-, third-, and fourth-line drugs, which means that if and when the supply of drug is restored, it's not guaranteed that patients who have developed drug resistance will immediately have a replacement option to treat their HIV. Funding for antiretroviral drugs given as HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, or prevention (PrEP), either as a long-acting injection or orally, is also under threat. With limited funding and little time to mobilize more funding, countries may have to prioritize either HIV prevention or treatment, Titanji said: “Does the country fund antiretroviral therapy to make sure that patients who already have HIV can have access to their drugs if PEPFAR is no longer around? Or do they fund condoms and birth control and injectable and oral PrEP options?”TAG is a research and advocacy organization that has been focusing particularly on the implications of the funding cuts on South Africa, a country that has been instrumental in developing better prevention and treatment for HIV and other infectious diseases. US projects, such as one in its seventh year of developing an HIV vaccine that was being renewed, have also been terminated. Cuts to PEPFAR and USAID also extend to HIV research, much of which has taken place in Africa, he added. “If you completely dismantle all of that research infrastructure, there is also the question of what that would mean for innovation in terms of HIV vaccine development and better and continually optimized treatments for HIV,” Titanji said. In practical research terms, while collaboration with other countries is ongoing, if the United States silos itself from Africa, it may cut itself off from the numbers of HIV patients it needs to conduct feasible, sufficiently powered clinical trials, she added.It also begs the question of whether infected Africans, who make up 75% of the world’s HIV patients, would have access to HIV therapy advances, she said. “Or will we get back to the late ’90s, when it took 10 years for combination therapy to trickle its way down [from the United States] to the African continent?” […]“There are still 1.3 million new HIV infections every year, which means the pool of people who need treatment will grow rapidly without more prevention,” Warren said. “The cuts to primary prevention do exactly the opposite of what this administration says they want to do, which is to get countries to own their AIDS response and own their budget. We all want to see that transition, but we're making it harder for countries by not helping them reduce the burden of treatment programs.” And the repercussions won’t be confined to Africa. Countries such as the United States, which has already seen cuts to the sexually transmitted infections division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), may see higher rates of HIV as a result of more cases in Africa. “An estimated 30 million people on the African continent are living with HIV, and of course, Africa is not sealed off from the rest of the world,” Titanji said.
- A group of public health societies, led by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) will seek to prevent the upcoming February Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting from taking place. The AAP and groups including the American Public Health Association and the Infectious Diseases Society of America have also asked to vacate recent changes to the pediatric immunization schedule. “We are confident that we will demonstrate for the court that this administration has acted arbitrarily and capriciously in revisions to the childhood immunization schedule and, furthermore, that the current ACIP will continue this destructive pattern if allowed to continue meeting,” said Richard Hughes IV, an attorney for the plaintiffs, in an AAP press release. A hearing on the plaintiffs’ preliminary injunction is scheduled for February 13.
- Despite President Donald Trump saying all assistance to GAVI, the vaccine alliance would be cut six month ago, the US Senate and House of Representatives have included funding for the organization in their foreign assistance appropriations bill. The bill still needs a vote in both chambers before being presented to the president for approval before it can be signed into law. The United States has provided 13% of GAVI’s annual funding since its inception in 2001. In June 2025, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said GAVI would not get any more US dollars until it worked to “re-earn the public trust” and “start taking vaccine safety seriously.”
- One year after gutting USAID, the Trump administration is launching an $11 billion effort called the America First Global Health Strategy to replace the “NGO industrial complex” and create a new framework for funding public health efforts in foreign nations. The $11 billion will be spent over the next five years through direct agreements with foreign governments, health care organizations, and drug manufacturers. So far, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signed 15 agreements with African countries, and the State Department estimates to have 50 more agreements in the coming months.
Senators hold bipartisan secret meeting to reshape FEMA - - A bipartisan group of senators met privately Tuesday to start building support for overhauling the Federal Emergency Management Agency, in a move meant to exert congressional influence over the office as it’s being targeted by the Trump administration. The meeting, organized by Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), indicates heightened Senate concern about FEMA as it experiences deep cuts to its disaster workforce and faces structural changes under President Donald Trump, who has lashed out at the agency for delivering aid too slowly. The legislative push comes as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are steering efforts to reduce the amount of federal aid for states in the wake of disasters. It also comes after Trump has sought to politicize FEMA aid by requiring states to assist federal immigration agents as a condition of receiving the money. That policy was derided by a federal judge who called it a “ham-handed attempt to bully” the states. Roughly a dozen senators met in Welch’s Capitol Hill office with former FEMA chiefs Craig Fugate and Peter Gaynor, in what two participants described as an unusually constructive meeting in interviews with POLITICO’s E&E News. Patrick Sheehan, who runs the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, was also in attendance. “There is strong, bipartisan interest in improving FEMA,” Welch said in a statement. The meeting was closed to the public and not announced. Fugate, who ran FEMA under former President Barack Obama, said the meeting was “an impressive bipartisan discussion about how to work for solutions.” “At most hearings, people talk past each other. This event, people were talking to each other and engaging in conversations in a very collegial approach,” Fugate added. “I was just very impressed by the caliber of the conversation.” An unusually large number of bills to revise FEMA are pending in Congress, including a sweeping agency overhaul, H.R. 4669, that the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee approved in September on a 57-3 vote. The Senate has no companion bill or comparable legislation. Welch, whose state sustained major flood damage in 2023 and 2024, introduced a measure in July that would create new programs for hazard mitigation and simplify some post-disaster procedures. Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), who led the meeting Tuesday with Welch, said he left the session confident that Congress could revise FEMA “in a bipartisan way.” “This was just an opportunity for us to have a conversation, to hear from some experts and really try to discuss it without the cameras, without the posturing. And I was really encouraged by it,” Kim said in an interview Wednesday. “A lot of my colleagues showed up, and a lot really talked about their interest in continuing to work on this.”
Interior’s new Fire Service could siphon off thousands of BLM staff -Interior Department leaders are weighing a plan that would move thousands of Bureau of Land Management firefighters to a new fire agency, along with an unknown number of other employees overseeing BLM’s rangelands, according to three people with knowledge of the proposal. The plan is part of a rapid reorganization by the Trump administration of how wildfire is managed on public lands. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum on Monday issued an order establishing the Wildland Fire Service within the department and announced the hiring of a longtime fire chief who will lead the effort. The deliberations are a first look at how the new fire agency might look in practice and how its creation could reshape Interior bureaus and workers.
House GOP unveils sweeping chemical law reforms - House Republicans on Thursday released an expansive set of changes that would limit EPA’s review authority under the nation’s premier chemical safety law — the answer to industry’s woes. The highly anticipated draft bill would make it harder for regulators to request more time for new chemical reviews, ensuring faster approvals. The legislation would also narrow EPA’s scope for restricting risky chemical uses. “When the EPA takes months or years to review a new chemical that our allies approve in weeks, we stall innovation, jeopardize supply chains, and weaken our national security,” said Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment.Palmer and E&C Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) announced the subcommittee will host a hearing next week to discuss the draft legislation.
Judge rejects Trump DOE grant cancellations in blue states - A federal judge ordered the Department of Energy on Monday to restore nearly $28 million in environmental project grants for recipients located in states where Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Judge Amit Mehta of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that DOE’s move violated discrimination protections under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution, though he tossed out another set of claims that the cancellations ran afoul of First Amendment safeguards for free speech.“The key question is whether Defendants’ deliberate grouping of awardees based on whether the state in which they reside voted for President Trump is rationally related to DOE’s stated objective of aligning grant funding with the new administration’s priorities,” wrote Mehta, an Obama appointee. “To ask the question is to answer it.”The cancellations at issue in the case were among more than 300 awards totaling $7.56 billion that DOE canceled in October at the start of the government shutdown. Mehta in his ruling noted the “unusual” nature of the terminations, writing that they were initially delivered not on official DOE letterhead, but on letters with the “Department of Energy” typed at the top. He also noted that DOE spared nearly identical projects in states that went for Trump in 2024. The judge wrote that while political considerations do not automatically invalidate an agency action, there must be a rational relationship between the government’s interests and its decision to draw such a distinction between grant recipients. Mehta disagreed, however, with the challengers’ claims that DOE’s grant cancellations violated the First Amendment’s prohibition of retaliation against protected speech. The challengers — a group that includes the city of Saint Paul, Minnesota, and the Environmental Defense Fund — could not assert the First Amendment rights of the residents of the states in which they reside, he found. DOE did not respond to a request for comment on the ruling.
Damn the torpedoes! Trump ditches a crucial climate treaty as he moves to dismantle America's climate protections -- On Jan. 7, 2026, President Donald Trump declared that he would officially pull the United States out of the world's most important global treaty for combating climate change. He said it was because the treaty ran "contrary to the interests of the United States." His order didn't say which U.S. interests he had in mind. Americans had just seen a year of widespread flooding from extreme weather across the U.S. Deadly wildfires had burned thousands of homes in the nation's second-largest metro area, and 2025 had been the second- or third-hottest year globally on record. Insurers are no longer willing to insure homes in many areas of the country because of the rising risks, and they are raising prices in many others. For decades, evidence has shown that increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, largely from burning fossil fuels, are raising global temperatures and influencing sea level rise, storms and wildfires. The climate treaty—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—was created to bring the world together to find ways to lower those risks.Trump's order to now pull the U.S. out of that treaty adds to a growing list of moves by the administration to dismantle U.S. efforts to combat climate change, despite the risks. Many of those moves, and there have been dozens, have flown under the public radar. A year into the second Trump administration, you might wonder: What's the big deal with the U.S. leaving the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change now? After all, the Trump administration has been ignoring the UNFCCC since taking office in January. This action is different. It vacates an actual treaty that was ratified by the U.S. Senate in October 1992 and signed by President George H.W. Bush. America's ratification that year broke a logjam of inaction by nations that had signed the agreement but were wary about actually ratifying it as a legal document. Once the U.S. ratified it, other countries followed, and the treaty entered into force on March 21, 1994. In early January 2025, the United States had reestablished itself as a world leader in climate science and was still working domestically and internationally to combat climate risks. A year later, the U.S. government has abdicated both roles and is taking actions that will increase the likelihood of catastrophic climate-driven disasters and magnify their consequences by dismantling certain forecasting and warning systems and tearing apart programs that helped Americans recover from disasters, including targeting the Federal Emergency Management Agency. To my mind, as a scholar of both environmental studies and economics, the administration's moves enunciated clearly its strategy to discredit concerns about climate change. At the same time, it promotes greater production of fossil fuels. It's "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!" with little consideration for what's at risk. Trump's repudiation of the UNFCCC could give countries around the world cover to pull back their own efforts to fight a global problem if they decide it is not in their myopic "best interest." So far, the other countries have stayed in both that treaty and the Paris climate agreement. However, many countries' promises to protect the planet for future generations were weaker in 2025 than hoped. The U.S. pullout may also leave the Trump administration at a disadvantage: The U.S. will no longer have a formal voice in the global forum where climate policies are debated, one where China has been gaining influence since Trump returned to the presidency.
Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings President Trump isn't the only one clamming up over Jeffrey Epstein - as Bill and Hillary Clinton are both refusing to testify in front of Congressional investigators over their relationship with the dead sex-trafficking pedophile, escalating a monthslong battle with House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY). The Clintons were scheduled to testify this week - weeks after the Trump DOJ released volumes of 'Epstein Files' - which were highly redacted, yet featured Bill prominently. The former US president was scheduled to testify today (Jan. 13), and Hillary scheduled for tomorrow. Hours before the deadline, however, the Clintons made it clear in an 8-page letter that they have no intention of showing up - calling subpoenas issued by Comer "invalid and legally unenforceable," adding that they'll fight Comer as long as it takes. "They are obligated under the law to appear and we expect them to do so," and Oversight spokeswoman said last week. "If the Clintons do not appear for their depositions, the House Oversight Committee will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings." Which, they're now initiating for Bill (which Hillary to follow). Contempt of Congress is a misdemeanor that can result in a fine of up to $100,000 and up to a year in jail if pursued by the DOJ (so, nothing will happen and the Clintons know it). Bill Clinton seems to think he's above the law and refused to show for his deposition today.@GOPoversight will begin contempt of Congress proceedings against former President Clinton for his failure to appear before Congress after a historic bipartisan subpoena. pic.twitter.com/zx1GXDX9bE — Oversight Committee (@GOPoversight) January 13, 2026 Comer subpoenaed the Clintons seeking information regarding their personal interactions with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, including documented flights on Epstein's private jet. The Clintons said in their letter that they anticipated Mr. Comer would argue that the decision about whether to testify was not theirs to make. “But we have made it,” they wrote. “Now you have to make yours.” The Clintons had worked to beef up their legal team before Mr. Comer’s deadline. They brought on Ashley Callen, co-chair of the congressional investigations practice at Jenner & Block, who had previously worked as general counsel for Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, to interface with G.O.P. members on the House Oversight Committee. Ms. Callen also previously worked as a deputy staff director on the House Oversight Committee under Mr. Comer. They also sought assistance from Abbe Lowell, the veteran lawyer famous for representing clients in the middle of political scandals.
Supreme Court to decide constitutionality of geofence warrants --The Supreme Court agreed Friday to review the constitutionality of geofence warrants, which allow law enforcement to demand companies turn over information on cellphones online at a location during a specific time window. In a brief order, the justices said they will review a defendant’s appeal that argues such warrants violate his Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable searches. The case will potentially be heard this term, which would put it on track for a decision by the summer. Okello Chatrie pleaded guilty to robbing a credit union in the Richmond suburbs in 2019 and was sentenced to nearly 12 years in prison. A detective had sought a geofence warrant from Google after seeing the suspect using a cellphone on security camera footage. A judge approved the warrant, and the company turned over anonymized location data for a two-hour period in the area of the credit union. Google frequently was the subject of geofence warrants, as it maintained a database called Sensorvault that contained location data on millions of Android phones and users with Google apps on non-Android devices. Google ultimately turned over subscriber information on three of the 19 people it possessed data on in the geofence. One of those was Chatrie. Law enforcement searched his house and found notes demanding money, nearly $100,000 in cash and a 9 mm pistol. Chatrie admitted to the robbery and later pleaded guilty after failing to challenge the geofence warrant. In his Supreme Court petition, Chatrie’s attorneys said lower courts have split on geofence warrants’ constitutionality and have forced tech companies to develop protocols without judicial guidance. “This Court — not a private business — should decide how the Fourth Amendment works in the context of geofence warrants,” the petition reads. His petition was supported by the social platform X, which filed a written brief urging the justices to take his case.
China Orders Domestic Firms To Stop Using US, Israeli Cybersecurity Software On 'National Security' Grounds Chinese authorities instructed domestic companies to stop using certain US and Israeli cybersecurity software, citing national security concerns and the risk of sensitive data being transferred overseas, according to informed sources cited by Reuters on January 14.Chinese officials, speaking through the sources – who spoke in anonymity – said the notice was issued in recent days and targeted software produced by roughly a dozen foreign firms. The move affects Chinese companies operating across multiple sectors, although Reuters said it could not determine how many received the directive.Among the firms named were US companies Broadcom-owned VMware, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet, as well as Israeli firm Check Point Software Technologies, according to the sources.Those briefed said the concern is that the software could "collect and transmit confidential information abroad,"raising fears about foreign access to sensitive Chinese data. Neither China’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, nor the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology responded to requests for comment by the time of publication, while the companies named in the report also did not reply to Reuters' inquiries.The decision comes as Beijing continues efforts to reduce reliance on western technology. While much of that push has focused on semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI), analysts cited by Reuters said authorities are also moving to replace foreign computer equipment and software.Chinese analysts added that concerns have grown that western technology could be vulnerable to hacking by foreign powers, reinforcing Beijing’s drive toward domestic alternatives.
Senators Want To Ban Chinese Students From Government Labs - Eleven US senators wrote to Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Tuesday seeking to ban Chinese nationals from US national labs - contending that their access undermines the United States' position in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. The DOE notably oversees 17 national laboratories and funds research to advance various technologies, including energy, environmental, nuclear, and others. In November, President Donald Trump ordered the DOE to launch 'Genesis Mission,' with a goal of coordinating a national effort to accelerate AI innovation "comparable in urgency and ambition to the Manhattan Project." In their letter, the Senators expressed concern over the thousands of Chinese nationals who have access to these national lab sites, which contain sensitive information and technology. In FY2024, around 3,200 Chinese nationals were approved for such access, which the lawmakers noted does not include lawful permanent residents of the United States, "which means there are likely hundreds, perhaps thousands, more individual Chinese citizens working in our labs," they wrote. "Continuing to give access to the cutting-edge work performed at these laboratories to Chinese nationals who will turn everything they know over to the [Chinese Communist Party] directly undermines the purpose of Genesis Mission," reads the letter, which was co-signed by Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), James Risch (R-Idaho), Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Ted Budd (R-N.C.). The Senators recommend that the department implement a policy to prohibit access by Chinese nationals to national laboratory sites, information, and technology.
Google Gemini AI picked to power Apple’s Siri --Apple will use Google’s Gemini AI models to power its Apple Intelligence features, including an updated version of Siri, the companies announced Monday. “Apple and Google have entered into a multi-year collaboration under which the next generation of Apple Foundation Models will be based on Google’s Gemini models and cloud technology,” they said in a joint statement. “After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google’s Al technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users,” they added. Apple Intelligence, the iPhone maker’s push to incorporate AI features into its products, has so far relied on OpenAI’s ChatGPT to handle certain capabilities, with the two companies initially announcing a partnership in June 2024. Google CEO Sundar Pichai hinted at a deal last year, noting during a court appearance that Apple had expressed interest in partnering with other AI providers and that Google hoped to strike an agreement.
Senate Passes Bill Allowing Victims To Sue Over Deepfake Porn Videos —The Senate unanimously passed a bill on Jan. 13 allowing victims to sue producers and distributors of deepfake porn videos. The Disrupt Explicit Forged Images and Non-Consensual Edits Act, or DEFIANCE Act, now goes to the House, where its fate is uncertain.It was introduced by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and was in response to X allowing nonconsensual illicit deepfakes.“Imagine losing control over your own likeness and identity. Imagine how powerless victims feel when they cannot remove illicit content, cannot prevent it from being reproduced repeatedly, and cannot prevent new images from being created. The consequences can be profound,” Durbin said on the Senate floor.Durbin went on to say what those consequences look like. “Victims may endure threats to their employment, education, or reputation, or suffer additional criminal activity, such as extortion and stalking,” he said. “Many experience depression, anxiety, and fear being in public. And in the worst cases, victims have been driven to suicide.”The legislation has the support of more than a dozen groups, including the National Women’s Law Center, National Center on Sexual Exploitation (NCOSE), Raven, Public Citizen, and the Sexual Violence Prevention Association.Durbin’s office cited that since 2019, the number of nonconsensual pornographic deepfake videos available online has increased ninefold. These videos have been viewed almost 4 billion times.The Senate passed Durbin’s bill in 2024, but the House did not vote on it.Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) introduced a companion bill in the House.“Victims of nonconsensual pornographic deepfakes have waited too long for federal legislation to hold perpetrators accountable. As deepfakes become easier to access and create—96 percent of deepfake videos circulating online are nonconsensual pornography—Congress needs to act to show victims that they won’t be left behind,” she said in astatement. “The DEFIANCE Act will allow victims to finally defend their reputations and take civil action against individuals who produced, distributed, or received digital forgeries.”President Donald Trump signed a similar bill in May 2025 that seeks to reduce the spread of nonconsensual intimate imagery and artificial intelligence (AI)-generated deepfakes.“With the rise of AI image generation, women have been harassed with deepfakes and other explicit images distributed against their will,” the president said during the event where he signed the bill, called the Take It Down Act. “It’s just so horribly wrong, and it’s a very abusive situation ... and today we’re making it totally illegal.”The Take It Down Act requires online platforms to remove nonconsensual intimate deepfake videos. Violators are subject to a maximum of three years in prison.
California AG Rob Bonta orders xAI to stop creating explicit AI content -- California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) sent a cease and desist letter Friday to xAI demanding that it stop producing AI-generated sexualized deepfakes of girls and women online, including on the social platform X. Bonta said in a statement that the “creation, distribution, publication and exhibition” of deepfakes of girls is child sexual abuse material and therefore a crime, and that these business practices violate California’s civil laws. “This week, my office formally announced an investigation into the creation and spread of nonconsensual, sexually explicit material produced using Grok, an AI model developed by xAI,” Bonta said in the statement. “The avalanche of reports detailing this material — at times depicting women and children engaged in sexual activity — is shocking and, as my office has determined, potentially illegal.” He said he expects xAI to comply with the letter immediately and that “California has zero tolerance for child sexual abuse material.” Bonta’s office noted several news reports of Grok, the AI program used on X, altering photos of women and children online to “undress” them without the subject’s knowledge or consent. The AI program uses what xAI calls a “spicy mode” to generate explicit images. “Use of Grok for these purposes appears to be happening on a large scale,” the statement read. “According to one analysis, more than half of the 20,000 images generated by xAI between Christmas and New Year’s depicted people in minimal clothing, and some of those appeared to be children.” xAI is owned by Tesla CEO and former White House official Elon Musk. On Wednesday, he posted on X that he was “not aware of any naked underage images generated by Grok. Literally zero.” Outrage grew as a coalition of almost 30 women’s, child safety and tech advocacy groups told Google and Apple to remove X and Grok from their app stores. The coalition argued that the content violates Apple’s policies for apps to comply with banning defamatory or overtly sexual content and Google’s policies blocking apps that depict the sexualization of children and other sexual content.
Elon Musk sues OpenAI, Microsoft for billions over alleged fraud in AI partnership - Tesla CEO and founder of AI firm xAI Elon Musk has asked a US federal court to award him $79 billion to $134 billion in damages, alleging that OpenAI and Microsoft defrauded him by abandoning OpenAI's nonprofit mission and partnering with the software giant. Musk's lawyers filed the damages request a day after a judge denied OpenAI and Microsoft's final bid to avoid a jury trial scheduled for late April in Oakland, California, according to multiple reports. The filing cited calculations that showed Musk is entitled to a share of OpenAI's current $500 billion valuation as he donated $38 million in seed funding during the founding stage of the company in 2015. "Just as an early investor in a startup company may realise gains many orders of magnitude greater than the investor's initial investment, the wrongful gains that OpenAI and Microsoft have earned -- and which Musk is now entitled to disgorge -- are much larger than Musk's initial contributions," the filing said. According to court papers, Musk's side argued that $65.5 billion to $109.43 billions of alleged wrongful gains were made by OpenAI and $13.3 billion to $25.06 billion by Microsoft from Musk's financial and non-monetary contributions, including technical and business advice. OpenAI and Microsoft have denied the allegations. Musk left OpenAI's board in 2018, launched his own AI company in 2023, and sued OpenAI in 2024, challenging co-founder Sam Altman's move to operate the company as a for‑profit entity. "Musk's lawsuit continues to be baseless and a part of his ongoing pattern of harassment, and we look forward to demonstrating this at trial," OpenAI said in a statement, adding, "this latest unserious demand is aimed solely at furthering this harassment campaign." Meanwhile, Musk's AI firm xAI is also suing Apple and OpenAI over an earlier integration of ChatGPT into Siri and Apple Intelligence as an optional add-on. Musk alleged that Apple's App Store practices disadvantage rivals such as Grok, and the lawsuit has survived initial dismissal.
Zeldin talks data centers, permitting with House GOP - Data centers, permitting reform and nuclear energy were on the menu Wednesday afternoon as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin lunched with congressional Republicans in the Capitol basement. The House’s Republican Study Committee, a 190-member group advancing conservative policy priorities, hosted Zeldin, a former House member, for a conversation that focused on energy demand and deregulation, according to four people who attended the meeting. Also in attendance was Ruth Porat, president of Alphabet, the parent company of Google. The company is investing billions of dollars on data center needs and lobbying Congress on overhauling the federal permitting process as it expands its artificial intelligence products. The meeting comes one day after the Republican Study Committee released dozens of policy recommendations for Republicans’ potential second attempt at budget reconciliation. They include numerous proposals on permitting reform, rolling back Biden-era regulations and killing energy efficiency standards. Asked about Zeldin’s message to the Republican Study Committee, Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas) said, “They’re deregulating; they’re getting projects approved.” “When you talk about AI, just as one example, we need to move at the speed of commerce, not at the speed of government,” Pfluger said. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), who has introduced amendments to spending legislation this week to roll back energy efficiency standards, said Zeldin advocated for more “baseload power” to feed rising energy demand. Zeldin told lawmakers that “there’s a place for all sources of energy as we go forward, but at the end of the day, you need sustainable, constant energy, and that’s going to be coal, it’s gonna be oil and gas, and it’s gonna be nuclear,” Ogles said, paraphrasing. Attendees said Zeldin also asked the group to continue to support EPA’s efforts to slash regulations. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) noted that in many cases, EPA has been repealing regulations and advancing Trump administration priorities on water, chemicals and emissions without Congress getting involved. “He’s doing a whole lot just by himself,” Burchett said of Zeldin. “Again, I don’t think anybody’s waiting on Congress. I think that’s why Trump does executive orders.” An EPA spokesperson said in a statement that the discussion “revolved around possibilities to deregulate the American economy and ultimately put money back in the pockets of American families while protecting our environment.” “Talks today ranged from key aspects of the Clean Air Act to the Clean Water Act, including challenges and opportunities where EPA can streamline federal permitting processes, consistent with Administrator Zeldin’s Powering the Great American Comeback initiative,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
Trump wants data centers to pay for power. Will that lower electricity prices? - Even as he pumps up the artificial intelligence boom, President Donald Trump is also warning the tech industry that they should “pay their own way” on electricity.But even if companies commit to shouldering more infrastructure costs — as Microsoft did Tuesday — it’s unclear how much of an impact that would have on household utility bills that usually absorb the cost of meeting rising electricity demand.Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Monday that he was working with tech companies on policies that would help them grow without raising costs for ratepayers. “I never want Americans to pay higher Electricity bills because of Data Centers,” Trump wrote.It comes as a bipartisan backlash against data centers has grown across the country, especially in areas seeing rising electricity bills. Elected officials are discussing new restrictions, and local resistance in 2025 forced companies to cancel some AI infrastructure projects, including a Microsoft development in Wisconsin.According to a report by Data Center Watch, some $98 billion in projects were blocked or delayed in just the second quarter of 2025, with even more affected in the second half of the year.In response, Microsoft on Tuesday announced what it called the Community-First AI Infrastructure Initiative. That included a pledge to pay more for the electricity that serves its data centers, including any new infrastructure needed to serve them. The company also said it would collaborate with local utilities to defray the cost to ratepayers and figure out what infrastructure is needed. “Especially when tech companies are so profitable, we believe that it’s both unfair and politically unrealistic for our industry to ask the public to shoulder added electricity costs for AI,” wrote Microsoft President Brad Smith in a blog post. “Instead, we believe the long-term success of AI infrastructure requires that tech companies pay their own way for the electricity costs they create.” Smith pointed to a partnership with Wyoming utility Black Hills Energy, which helped negotiate a larger power contract to bring on renewable energy options for data centers that did not affect rates. Wyoming lawmakers have also passed legislation that allows for customized rates for large loads.Although Trump indicated in his post Monday that more announcements would be coming from other tech companies, it’s unclear who else may make similar pledges. In a statement, Data Center Coalition President Josh Levi said that data centers “strive to be good neighbors in the communities where they operate.”The data center boom, however, is just one element that has boosted electricity prices across the country. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, electricity prices were up 6.7 percent in the last 12 months. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has also projected that electricity prices will rise and several independent analyses have said that the Trump administration’s policies against renewable energy could further drive up costs.Power-hungry data centers — which could consume as much as 12 percent of the grid by 2028, according to federal estimates — are a target of consumers’ ire as they pull an increasing amount of power from the grid. As individual data centers balloon in size and can consume as much power as cities, their impact on the grid extends beyond their immediate construction and can necessitate upgrades to equipment or new generation.A recent study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that serving data centers is not the main driver of those cost increases. The study, in fact, found that states where load has risen generally see price reductions, although households did not necessarily see lower costs. Cost increases were also due to increased spending on grid infrastructure, transmission and distribution upgrades, recovery from natural disasters, and variability in the price of natural gas.Utilities are already seeking more money to pay to upgrade decades-old infrastructure, replace aging fossil fuel plants and harden the grid against extreme weather. That’s led to arguments that deep-pocketed companies could help pay for those upgrades while also adding significant load to the system.
Trump’s AI push breathes life into an old pollution scourge -The Trump administration’s sweeping effort to ease regulations on the coal industry could allow power companies to continue operating unlined coal ash dumps that are leaking toxins into groundwater. Under Administrator Lee Zeldin, EPA has argued that loosening coal ash regulations will ease electric grid challenges triggered by explosive growth of artificial intelligence data centers. But some people living near ash dumps are concerned that the changes could threaten their drinking water. Coal ash — the material that is left over after the fossil fuel is burned — contains heavy metals like mercury, arsenic, boron, cadmium and chromium. The ash historically has been stored in sprawling pits adjacent to power plants, often without a protective lining to prevent pollutants from spreading. This month, EPA plans to propose changes to a Biden-era rule that requires companies to monitor groundwater near old ash dumps and clean them up if they are leaking. The agency is also considering giving 11 power plants a three-year extension on a cleanup deadline for 13 unlined ash dumps, each of which spans more than 40 acres. EPA spokesperson Brigit Hirsch said the extension aimed to promote grid reliability and would apply to “a small subset of baseload coal-fired power producers.” She also accused the Biden administration of attempting to “destroy the coal industry.” “EPA will accept comments on this proposal through February 6, 2026,” Hirsch said in an emailed statement. Barbara Deardorff lives in Tefft, Indiana, a few miles from the Schahfer Generating Station’s ash dump site. Several years ago, she discovered arsenic and lead in her well water above the recommended safe levels, prompting her to relocate the well elsewhere on her property, she said. “I spent several thousand dollars drilling test wells in my yard until I found clean water, put in a well and hooked it to the house,” Deardorff said. “I realize the EPA has an enormous job to do in monitoring all these industries under all the regulations, but also, I wish they took stronger enforcement action.” Schahfer’s owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. or NIPSCO, has documented potentially unsafe levels of molybdenum, arsenic and lithium in groundwater at its ash dump. While the company was previously supposed to close the unlined dump by 2028, EPA in November proposed giving NIPSCO and 10 other plant owners until October 2031 to do so. NIPSCO has argued that there is nowhere that it could safely move the coal ash at Schahfer, which the Trump administration ordered to keep burning coal last month. Joshauna Nash, a spokesperson for NIPSCO parent company NiSource, said its data does not indicate that pollutants are migrating off-site, and that the dump will close by 2031, “in accordance with rules recently proposed by EPA.” “In compliance with federal and state requirements, NIPSCO has implemented a comprehensive program to protect groundwater at Schahfer Generating Station,” Nash said in an email. At least two other plants — the Naughton Power Plant in Wyoming and the Baldwin Power Plant in Illinois — that EPA proposed granting the same three-year cleanup extension have also reported contamination of groundwater at their ash dumps. In November, Naughton reported that groundwater at one of its dumps exceeded groundwater protection standards for arsenic, lithium and radium, a radioactive metal. In July, Baldwin reported exceedances of groundwater standards for fluoride and lithium. While EPA does not regulate lithium in tap water, too much fluoride is potentially linked to lower IQ in children. PacifiCorp, which owns the Naughton Power Plant, stopped burning coal on Dec. 31 and plans to convert to natural gas, said utility spokesperson David Eskelsen. It will not be taking advantage of EPA’s extension and will stop disposing of ash at the unlined dump by Sept. 30, Eskelsen said. The company maintains that groundwater pollutants at the dump came from an “alternative source.”
AI fuels surge in crypto impersonation scams --The spectacular and concerning growth in impersonation scams last year was also supported by new AI and phishing-as-a-service tools, which help criminals reach far more victims and steal significantly more money. In total, crypto scams netted at least $14 billion in 2025, representing a 16% increase from 2024, according to blockchain analysis company Chainalysis. However, in the same year, impersonation scams jumped by 1,400%, while the average amount of payments made to these criminals increased by over 600%, the analysts said, without specifying exact figures. Taking into account all scams, the average payment increased by 253% to $2,764 last year. Criminals are busy impersonating both governments and private organizations. For example, a Chinese-speaking cybercriminal group known as “Darcula” and the “Smishing Triad” is suspected of being responsible for the “E-ZPass” phishing campaign, which targeted millions of Americans using the E-ZPass electronic road toll collection system in 2025. USA-China-phishing Additionally, last December, a Brooklyn resident was indicted for impersonating a customer support representative at the Coinbase crypto exchange and stealing nearly $16 million. Meanwhile, emerging AI tools are helping criminals make their operations more “profitable,” while evolving phishing kits also contribute to the industrialization of this type of crime. According to Chainalysis, AI-enabled scams using face-swap software, deepfake technologies, and large language model solutions scale more quickly and hit their victims more severely. “Our analysis reveals that, on average, scams with on-chain links to AI vendors extract $3.2 million per operation compared to $719,000 for those without an on-chain link [to Chinese AI vendors] – 4.5 times more revenue per scam,” the analysts said, adding that, with AI, median daily revenue increased more than 800%, to $4,838. Additionally, the “professionalization and commercialization” of scammer tools help criminals scale their illicit operations. Data shows that scammers using phishing kits are 688 times more effective in dollar terms and four times more effective in average transaction size than regular scams. Also, scams that buy bulk social media accounts are 238 times more effective in dollar terms and twice as effective in average transaction value compared to regular scams, according to Chainalysis. For example, in the E-ZPass case, scammers used software from Lighthouse, a Chinese-language vendor that offers cybercriminals “phishing for dummies,” with hundreds of templates for fake websites, domain-setup tools, and features designed to evade detection. In this group, different actors specialized in distinct parts of the scam and fraud supply chain, such as phishing software and templates, lists of potential victims, tools to send fraudulent text messages, monetization of stolen sensitive information, and online recruitment and collaboration forums. While Chainalysis admits that there are no silver bullets to solve this problem, a stronger focus on fraud prevention and cross-border law enforcement cooperation might help slow this scam virus from spreading.
Massachusetts resident on Tinder swindled out of $500,000 in fraud scheme: Feds --Talk about a bad date. A Cambridge resident who matched with an alleged swindler on Tinder ended up transferring more than $500,000 to the suspected fraudster, according to the feds. The Massachusetts U.S. Attorney’s office has now filed a civil forfeiture action to recover the proceeds of the online investment fraud scheme. The cryptocurrency has an estimated value of about $200,000. Last spring, the feds launched an investigation into a crypto investment fraud scheme that targeted a local resident. In swindles like this, often called “pig-butchering” schemes, scammers obtain funds from victims using manipulative tactics. “The scammer establishes a level of trust with a victim in online communications and then entices the victim into investing in a fraudulent cryptocurrency scheme,” the U.S. Attorney Leah Foley’s office wrote. “Often the victim is enticed to make additional payments before realizing they are a victim of fraud,” the office added. “The victim’s funds are stolen by the criminal, or criminals, ultimately causing the victim financial and emotional harm. Perpetrators behind these cryptocurrency investment schemes are often located overseas.” In this case, a Cambridge resident matched with an individual on Tinder who went by the name “Nino Martin.” Martin reportedly suggested they leave Tinder and communicate via WhatsApp. He allegedly told the victim that he was a financial advisor and could help the victim make money by trading crypto. The victim then followed instructions to create an account and transfer funds to a trading platform that law enforcement believes was fraudulent. The transfers were flagged as suspicious, so those from the suspected fraudulent trading platform then contacted the victim with instructions on how to evade restrictions. “The victim then continued to transfer funds to the suspected fraudulent trading platform,” the feds wrote. “The victim transferred approximately $504,353 to the suspected fraudulent trading platform prior to contacting law enforcement.” Massachusetts contractor who scammed homeowners out of $500,000 was sentenced to prison Some victim funds were then traced to a crypto account, which was seized in June 2025. A civil forfeiture action allows third parties to assert claims to property, which must be resolved before the property can be forfeited to the U.S. and returned to victims. This is one of several civil forfeiture actions the U.S. Attorney’s office has filed seeking to forfeit crypto traced to fraud schemes targeting Massachusetts victims. Members of the public who believe they are victims of a cybercrime – including cryptocurrency scams, romance scams, investment scams and business email compromise fraud scams – are urged to email USAMA.CyberTip@usdoj.gov.
Crypto scams took $17 billion last year. 2026 could be even worse - Fast Company -- 2025 was a banner year for cryptocurrencies on many fronts. Global regulation eased. Stablecoins powered $46 trillion in annual transactions. And major shifts in U.S. government policy spurred wider adoption. But with that expansion came a notable bump in crypto fraud.A new report from Chainalysis, a blockchain data platform based in New York City, estimates that $17 billion in crypto was stolen last year through fraud and scams. Impersonation scams, where criminals pretend to be trusted entities or use fake tokens or websites to trick victims into sending them crypto, were up a jaw-dropping 1,400% year over year.And while it’s much too early to gather any conclusive data for 2026, the year got off to an inauspicious start. Earlier this month, the FBI warned about the use of Bitcoin ATMs, saying the devices are a magnet for scammers to convince people to send money (their entire life savings, in some cases) overseas. And just this week, the fintech firm Betterment confirmed that hackers had broken into its systems earlier this month and used the data to send a fraudulent crypto note to users, which funneled money to a wallet controlled by the attacker.Meanwhile, former New York Mayor Eric Adams launched a new crypto token on Monday that he said would combat antisemitism and promote blockchain education. It quickly lost 81% of its value, bringing about accusations of a “rug pull” across the crypto community.Chainalysis warned in its report that this could be just the beginning of another year of new highs. “As we move into 2026, we expect further convergence of scam methodologies as scammers adopt multiple tactics and technologies simultaneously,” it wrote.Early projections by Chainalysis indicate scammers in 2025 received at least $14 billion on-chain, a transaction that occurs directly on the blockchain (compared with a speedier and cheaper but riskier off-chain transaction). That’s a big jump from last year’s initial estimate at the same time of $9.9 billion.Ultimately, the 2024 number settled at $12 billion following recalculations. The 2025 total is projected to come in above $17 billion, as more bogus wallet addresses are uncovered in the coming months. That would make last year’s rise in crypto scam losses the biggest since 2020 to 2021, when they doubled. Subsequent years have been fairly flat, hovering between $12 billion and $13 billion.
Crypto coin firm touted by Eric Adams denies allegations of ‘rug pull’ scam - The cryptocurrency launched by New York City’s former mayor Eric Adams is already in hot water, and now the company behind it is being forced to defend itself from accusations that it scammed people.Investors and cryptocurrency watchers say the asset, dubbed NYC Token, surged to about $580m shortly after it hit the market on Monday and then rapidly plummeted in value. Observers speculated that someone behind the scene may have carried out what’s known in the crypto world as a “rug pull” – when the creators of the asset quickly sell their investments.The company behind the coin has denied any wrongdoing.In a statement posted on X, NYC Token said it was aware of the allegations but rejected claims of a rug pull. “Given the overwhelming support and demand for the token at launch, our partners had to rebalance the liquidity,” the company said.Adams has not commented publicly about the accusations and could not be reached for comment. His exact role at the company is unclear.The former mayor is a longtime cryptocurrency fan and debuted NYC Token, which has no affiliation with New York City or a government agency, at anappearance in Times Square on Monday. He said the asset was “built to fight the rapid spread of antisemitism and anti-Americanism” and urged people to buy it.The website for NYC Token calls it a “community” currency and the “digital heartbeat” of the city. It says that total supply of the token is 1bn, but does not list any of the people behind the project and how such a cryptocurrency would fight antisemitism. In an ad Adams posted to X, he hyped the coin, exclaiming: “This thing is about to take off like crazy.”Cryptocurrency is known for being highly speculative, with drastic swings from high to low. Even NYC Token’s website includes a disclaimer saying: “The value of NYCTOKEN may fluctuate significantly and could result in total loss of your investment.”Such fluctuations were on full display on Monday when the value of the asset rose to nearly $600m and then tumbled to less than $100m in a matter of hours, according to the analytics platform Bubblemaps. In its analysis, Bubblemaps said NYC Token’s liquidity was “seeded and withdrawn” in unusual patterns right after launch.“Several wallets purchased large amounts of $NYC early, then moved funds into and out of pools rapidly,” Bubblemaps said. “Timing and size of these movements suggest some level of pre-planned activity.”NYC Token told Bloomberg the liquidity movements were adjustments to keep trading “running smoothly”. It added: “The team has not sold any tokens and is subject to lockups and transfer restrictions … The team has not withdrawn any money from the account.”
California penalizes Nexo $500,000 for risky crypto loans -The crypto lender issued over 5,000 loans to residents without a license and failed to assess repayment ability, the DFPI said.
- Supporting data: Nexo originated 5,456 loans for California residents without a valid license between July 2018 and November 2022.
- Key insight: While Nexo marketed its lack of credit checks, California law requires lenders to evaluate a borrower's ability to repay a loan.
- Expert quote: "Lenders must follow the law and avoid making risky loans that endanger consumers — and crypto-backed loans are no exception," said DFPI Commissioner KC Mohseni.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review
Market Intelligence On-chain vault services could give banks an on-ramp to crypto markets --We all know what a vault is: a protected storage facility, often at a bank or similar institution. The very word conjures images of security and strength. Noelle Acheson explains how on-chain vaults, born in decentralized finance, could shape the centralized banking of tomorrow.
Ether Futures ETF Sees Fresh Inflows As Traders Buy The Dip Amid Ether Price Weakness - ProShares Ether Strategy ETF (EETH), a futures-based fund, attracted $3.45 million in inflows on January 12, 2026, signaling renewed investor interest in Ether-linked products despite recent market volatility. The inflow represents approximately 3.3% of the fund’s latest assets under management of $104.6 million, a significant single-day allocation shift for the relatively young ETF. The inflows indicate that some investors are cautiously re-entering the market, using the recent pullback in Ether prices as an opportunity to build exposure rather than exit positions. While the absolute amount is modest, its proportional impact on EETH’s AUM highlights growing confidence in regulated, exchange-traded access to cryptocurrency futures. Ether (ETH-USD) has experienced a sharp decline over the past three months, trading around $3,326.80 and down nearly 19%. Despite this recent weakness, short-term technical indicators have turned more constructive, with a one-day Buy rating signaling potential momentum for a relief rally. For a futures-based ETF like EETH, these inflows reflect not just market speculation but also a measured approach to crypto exposure. Traders appear to be averaging into weakness, aligning their actions with emerging technical signals rather than making reactive bets on a full market recovery. Looking ahead, the sustainability of this investor optimism will likely hinge on broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments in the digital asset space. For now, Ether’s recent setback is drawing capital, demonstrating that investor interest remains resilient in the face of volatility.
Crypto Futures Account Liquidations Trigger Massive Short Squeeze As Traders Face Heavy Losses - Global cryptocurrency markets experienced a dramatic wave of forced liquidations on Thursday, March 13, 2025, highlighting the vulnerability of short positions across major digital assets. Bitcoin perpetual futures bore the brunt of the sell-off, with short positions accounting for nearly 87% of forced closures. The event underscores how leverage and market sentiment are shaping trading strategies amid evolving regulations and macroeconomic pressures. Bitcoin traders saw $178 million in liquidations over 24 hours, largely from positions betting on price declines. Ethereum followed with $82.11 million in forced liquidations, where short positions made up over 64% of closures. Even smaller tokens, such as RIVER, experienced notable liquidations, reflecting a broader market trend where bearish traders faced mounting pressure from unexpected price movements. Perpetual futures, unlike traditional contracts, allow speculation without expiration dates and employ funding rates to maintain alignment with spot prices. When volatility spikes, traders with insufficient margin face automatic liquidation, amplifying price swings. These liquidations often create cascading effects, known as short squeezes, where rising prices force bearish traders to buy back positions, further accelerating upward momentum. Historical patterns suggest similarities with the 2021 bull market, though the current environment features greater institutional participation and more robust risk management. Despite improved leverage controls and portfolio hedging, recent events demonstrate that excessive short positions remain highly susceptible to rapid price changes, particularly in volatile market conditions. Regulatory developments are also reshaping liquidation dynamics. Proposed leverage limits, enhanced reporting requirements, and stricter exchange oversight aim to reduce extreme liquidations while balancing market liquidity. For traders, careful attention to margin requirements, position sizing, and risk management remains essential as crypto derivatives markets evolve under regulatory and institutional influence.
A banker's guide to the Senate crypto bill drama --Stablecoin yield has continued to be a flashpoint as bank groups look for a blanket ban on crypto exchanges and other nonbanks offering yield-like rewards for holding crypto.Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., and many fellow Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee sent a letter to the Federal Reserve warning the central bank to be mindful of "tailoring" rules Congress has established for bank capital requirements as the Fed reviews the bank capital framework.
- Key insight: Bankers and crypto companies are ramping up pressure on lawmakers, who delayed a pivotal meeting to mark up the crypto market structure bill.
- Forward look: The withdrawal of Coinbase's support for the bill is a blow to the overall legislation, and preceded Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott's, R-S.C., decision to postpone the markup, and the bill is a long way from getting the strong bipartisan support it needs.
- What's at stake: Bank groups say that allowing crypto firms to pay yield-like rewards on stablecoin reserves would drain deposits from the banking system and dampen local lending.
This article was updated at 10:29 p.m. to reflect the Senate Banking Committee's cancellation of the market structure markup.
Big banks talk about digital assets a lot, use them a little --New research from American Banker details how the 50 largest U.S. banks by U.S. assets are using stablecoins, cryptocurrencies and other distributed ledger technology.
- Key insights: Banks are keenly aware of digital assets, and some are testing and building products; but most are just talking about the nascent technology.
- What's at stake: Stablecoins could potentially revolutionize the infrastructure of banking, creating pressure on banks to have a plan.
- Forward look: As banks develop stablecoin strategies, they are also adding services related to digital assets and the underlying technology.
Citi CEO Jane Fraser is one of the biggest bulls among bankers when it comes to the promise of digital currencies and assets.
BankThink The SEC has finally opened the door to tokenized securities custody -- The Securities and Exchange Commission appears to have finally acknowledged that tokenized securities are still … securities. For broker-dealers seeking to offer tokenized securities custody, the path forward is now visible, writes Bepi Pezzulli For years, the securities industry has watched the SEC treat tokenized assets like a zookeeper eyeing an unfamiliar creature — curious, vaguely threatened, unsure whether to feed it or call animal control. That era of regulatory paralysis ended in December, when the Division of Trading and Markets released a staff statement explaining, with the air of someone announcing that water is wet, that tokenized stocks and bonds are still stocks and bonds and may be custodied under the same rules that have governed securities since the Nixon administration.
MUSA designated primary dealer by New York Fed --In this week's banking news roundup: MUFG Securities Americas is designated a primary dealer by the the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Founders Bank appoints Chris Lipscomb its senior vice president and chief lending officer; the Independent Community Bankers of America names Charles Yi senior executive vice president of government relations; and more.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group announced on Jan. 15 that its registered broker-dealer MUFG Securities Americas, or MUSA, has been designated a primary dealer by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In this capacity, MUSA will act as a trading counterparty with the New York Fed, participating in open market operations, supporting U.S. Treasury securities at auctions, and providing market intelligence and analysis to the New York Fed's Open Market Trading Desk."As one of the world's leading financial institutions, we are proud to support the stability, liquidity, and efficient functioning of the U.S. Treasury market and honored to have been approved by the New York Fed for this role," Head of Global Markets Sales and Trading Mike Yarian said in a press release. To qualify for this designation, MUFG — one of the 10 largest financial groups, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence — was required to demonstrate a substantial presence as a market maker and to operate a back office capable of supporting settlement at volumes expected by the New York Fed, among other requirements.
Cato report says administration misdiagnosed debanking -- A report from the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, released Thursday found that most sudden account closures were spurred by supervisory pressure rather than political or religious bias on the part of the banks, a finding that is at odds with the White House's framing of the issue.
- Key insight: A report from the Cato Institute found that most cases of debanking were regulatory rather than ideological in their origins, and that banks should be free to curate their reputations without government pressure
- Supporting data: Only 35 of 8,300 complaints cited in the report referenced politics or religion, the Cato analysis found.
- Forward look: Regulators are continuing to investigate the largest banks for evidence of political or religious bias, but have also taken actions to remove reputational risk from their examination manuals and sought ways to simplify anti-money-laundering compliance so as to reduce instances of debanking.
A new report by the Cato Institute found that most documented instances of debanking can be attributed to supervisory and/or regulatory pressure rather than political or religious bias, a finding that is at odds with the White House's declarations on the issue.
BankThink: Bankers should be wary of the effects of a regulatory race to the bottom - Following President Trump's aggressive bank deregulation agenda, the FDIC and OCC, and occasionally the increasingly politicized Fed, are in a race to the regulatory bottom. Bankers should remember that the pendulum can always swing back, writes Ken Thomas.
Gould floats bare-bones resolution planning revamp - Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said Friday afternoon that regulators should scale back what he characterized as costly and ineffective bank-prepared resolution plans and shifting resolution responsibility onto bank regulators.
Trump backs Durbin-Marshall swipe fee bill — President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to back swipe fee legislation that bankers have strongly opposed. Trump said that lawmakers should support legislation that would require credit cards issued by most large banks to offer merchants the choice between two unaffiliated card networks, one of which cannot be Visa or Mastercard.Trump said he has signed a spending bill funding the federal government for the next six months, reversing a veto threat he made earlier Friday that shocked Washington after his administration had previously said he would approve the legislation. Key insight: Trump's comments renew interest in a bill that has been floating around Congress for years but that has failed to attach itself to an appropriate legislative vehicle.
- What's at stake: Trump's support for the measure is a significant blow to the bank lobby, who have been in a longstanding conflict with retailers over the issue.
- Forward look: Trump's newfound support for the Durbin-Marshall bill could spur a vote before the 2026 midterm elections, but even if that vote fails the issue may gain new life in the next Congress.
"Everything's On The Table": JPM CFO Signals Possible Fight With Trump Over Credit Card Rate Cap --Wall Street has benefited greatly from the Trump administration's economic policies and "Make America Great Again" agenda and has largely been supportive of the president. That relationship abruptly fractured last Friday when the president called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%.All it took was President Trump's Truth Social post prioritizing working-class Americans over Wall Street, in which the president said, "AFFORDABILITY! Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%," to put big bank CEOs on notice, with some now preparing to mount a fight against the White House.Leading that charge appears to be JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum, who signaled during an earnings call on Tuesday that banks could challenge Trump's move to cap credit card interest rates for a year."If you wind up with weakly supported directives to radically change our business that aren't justified, you have to assume that everything's on the table," Barnum told analysts following JPMorgan's fourth-quarter earnings report (read here). "We owe that to shareholders."Barnum argued that a rate cap would backfire by shrinking credit availability rather than lowering borrowing costs, ultimately hurting consumers, spending, and the broader economy. His warning echoed concerns raised earlier this week by UBS analysts Erika Najarian and Tim Chiodo."Our belief is that actions like this will have the exact opposite consequence to what the administration wants for consumers," Barnum said. "Instead of lowering the price of credit, we'll simply reduce the supply of credit, and that will be bad for everyone: consumers, the wider economy, and yes, at the margin, for us."
Bank CEOs warn rate cap would have 'unintended consequences' --A week after President Trump demanded a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, top executives at big banks protested the idea in blunt terms.
- Key insight: Bank CEOs are expressing alarm about the potential impacts of President Trump's call for a 10% limit on credit card interest rates.
- What's at stake: Credit card interest rates are an important source of income for banks with large card portfolios. Enacting a cap would cut into banks' earnings, analysts said.
- Forward look: Though Trump told banks to implement the rate reduction by Jan. 20, few think the demand will be met.
Brian Moynihan is usually very careful to avoid commenting on politics, particularly when it involves opposing President Trump. But when he was asked Wednesday about Trump's proposed limit on credit card interest rates, the Bank of AmericabCEO was uncharacteristically blunt.
Trump adviser suggests 10 percent interest ‘Trump cards’ in lieu of legislative cap -- President Trump’s economic adviser said Friday that the administration has been in touch with major banks regarding the administration’s proposal to temporarily cap credit card interest rates amid concerns about its long-term economic impact. Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, said the administration expects banks to voluntarily provide “Trump cards” to consumers, potentially circumventing the need for legislation to enforce the one-year, 10-percent cap called for by Trump. “Our expectation is that it won’t necessarily require legislation because there will be really great new Trump cards presented for folks that are voluntarily provided by the banks,” Hassett said on Fox News’s “Mornings with Maria.” The credit cards, he said, would be aimed at people in a “sweet spot” who have enough income stability to be credit-worthy but who don’t currently have access to credit. “We’ve been in conversations with the big banks, with CEOs of many of the big banks who think that the president is on to something, that he’s got a great idea,” Hassett said, without providing much detail. The White House did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for further information. An interest rate cap is one of several proposals announced by Trump this week as part of a broader economic messaging push, which also included calls for a ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes and a directive ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of mortgage bonds to lower rates. Hassett’s comments come as some have voiced concerns about the proposal, warning that it could have unintended consequences. “We share the President’s goal of helping Americans access more affordable credit,” several banking industry groups said in a joint statement released Jan. 9. “At the same time, evidence shows that a 10% interest rate cap would reduce credit availability and be devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help.” “If enacted, this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives,” the group added.Voluntary 'Trump card' idea lowers risk of legislation — White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said that the Trump administration expects banks to issue "Trump cards" with rate caps at 10%, obviating the need for Congress to pass legislation that would set all credit card rates at that level.
- Key insight: An idea floated by the White House saying banks will voluntarily offer "Trump cards" with a 10% interest rate limit could dull the president's push for a bill capping all credit card interest rates at 10%.
- Expert quote: "Our expectation is that it won't necessarily require legislation because there will be really great new Trump cards presented for folks that are voluntarily provided by the banks." — White House Council of Economic Advisers Director Kevin Hassett
- What's at stake: Experts say that while the voluntary move could lower the pressure to move a bill soon, the issue is unlikely to go away in a political moment where affordability is central to most voters' concerns.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Friday that the administration expects banks to voluntarily issue "Trump cards" with 10% rate caps, a move that could quell Congress' moves to impose a cap through legislation — but that's no guarantee.
BankThink: Trump's CCCA boost is misguided; the bill would harm military families --The heads of two associations representing military-serving financial institutions argue that the Credit Card Competition Act, as well as the president's demand for credit card rate cuts, would harm troops by reducing access to credit.The urgency surrounding the Credit Card Competition Act has intensified following President Trump's recent call to lower credit card interest rates and his expressed support for the CCCA. While these proposals are framed as efforts to improve affordability, taken together they would significantly reduce access to safe, regulated credit and weaken consumer protections, especially for the very populations that community-based banks and credit unions are designed to serve.
JPMorganChase's profit dips as it preps for Apple card portfolio - JPMorganChase grew business at a slightly slower pace in the final quarter of 2025, the company announced Tuesday, but CEO Jamie Dimon said that the economy has continued to remain resilient.
- Key insight: JPMorganChase earned $4.63 per diluted share in the fourth quarter, missing analyst estimates primarily on a $2.2 billion provision for credit loss related to the Apple-card business.
- What's at stake: The move comes as the Trump administration has called for credit card issuers to cap interest rates at 10%, a massive shift for the industry.
- Forward look: CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy has been resilient, in part due to deregulation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The largest bank in the country bulked up its reserves by $2.2 billion for potential credit hits from the Apple card portfolio, which JPMorgan is taking over from Goldman Sachs.
Fifth Third, Comerica plan to close $10.9B merger on Feb. 1 Fifth Third Bancorp and Comerica have rounded the final corner in the race to close their proposed $10.9 billion merger, and now say they expect to complete the deal on Feb. 1.
- Key insight: The banks expect to close the deal, which they reached on Oct. 5, on the early end of the timeline they had laid out.
- What's at stake: The combination of Fifth Third and Comerica would create the 16th-largest depository institution in the country, with more than $290 billion of assets.
- Forward look: Litigation that an activist investor has filed in an effort to stop the deal is still ongoing.
The Federal Reserve announced it had approved the merger, marking the final regulatory hurdle the banks needed to clear. But a lawsuit seeking to stop the deal is still ongoing.
CFPB, DOJ withdraw Biden-era opinion on immigrants and credit -- Continuing to retreat from Biden-era rules, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Department of Justice withdrew a 2023 advisory opinion that had cautioned about denying credit to immigrants.
House passes bill to limit ESG in retirement investing - The House voted 213-205 on Thursday to pass legislation that would limit retirement fund managers’ ability to consider environmental, social and governance factors in investment decisions. The “Protecting Prudent Investment of Retirement Savings Act,” H.R. 2988, sponsored by Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.), seeks to limit the use of ESG considerations, particularly in fiduciaries’ management of retirement savings governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act. The legislation targets a Labor Department rule finalized during the Biden administration that clarified support for fund managers’ authority to consider ESG factors when they are financially relevant and to use them as a tie-breaker when competing investments are otherwise economically equivalent. The bill was one of several measures advanced by the House Education and Workforce Committee that were slated for floor votes this week. The Thursday vote came after six Republicans joined Democrats earlier this week to block a separate GOP-backed bill easing overtime rules.
Florida land swap transparency bills begin moving with bipartisan support - — A pair of bills designed to increase transparency in Florida land swaps advanced Monday from their first state House and Senate committees. State Rep. Kim Kendall (R-St. Augustine) told the House Natural Resources and Disasters Subcommittee she introduced her bill, FL HB441 (26R), after the public last year was provided only a one-week notice of a land swap in her district.Her bill would require 30 days’ notice before a deal is approved by the state land council or by the governor and Cabinet. Appraisals also would be required and disclosed publicly, and there would be a statement of benefit for any parcels to be acquired. Her bill and the Senate companion measure passed their committees without opposition and with bipartisan praise.
California insurance risk skyrockets past Florida and Texas -California’s property insurer of last resort continued to grow in the final months of 2025, giving it more than twice as much potential liability than similar insurance programs in Florida and Texas combined. The state-chartered California FAIR Plan, which sells property insurance to residents who are unable to buy coverage in the private market, was insuring a record 669,000 properties on Dec. 31, according to new data. The number of policies in state FAIR plans grows as insurance companies pull back in the face of increasingly damaging disasters such as wildfire and hurricanes. The continued growth indicates that the state’s insurance crisis is ongoing despite attempts by California officials to prevent insurers from leaving high-risk areas of the state, the advocacy group Consumer Watchdog said in a statement on Tuesday.The FAIR plan said on its website that the growth in the last quarter of 2025 was slightly smaller than it had been during the same period of the previous year, but much larger than in 2022.
2025 US home sales stuck at 30-year low as mortgage rates, prices weighed on market - The U.S. housing market slump dragged into its fourth year in 2025 as sales remained stuck at a 30-year low with rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates keeping many prospective home shoppers out of the market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes totaled 4.06 million last year, flat versus 2024, when sales sank to the lowest level since 1995, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Sales have declined on annual basis every year since 2022. The median national home price for all of last year rose 1.7% to $414,400, the NAR said. Sales have been stuck at around a 4-million annual pace now going back to 2023. That’s well short of the 5.2-million annual pace that’s historically been the norm. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth.” The U.S. housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was around 7% a year ago and remained elevated for much of the year until late summer, when they began to ease, falling to close to 6% by the end of the year, according to Freddie Mac. That recent pullback in mortgage rates helped drive existing U.S. home sales in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November and the fastest sales pace in nearly three years, NAR said. That topped the 4.14 million sales pace economists expected, according to FactSet. Home prices also rose in December, pushing up the median sales to $405,400, a 0.4% increase from December 2024. That’s also an all-time high for any previous December and the 30th consecutive month with an annual increase in the median sales price, NAR said. Despite lower mortgage rates, affordability remains a challenge for many aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who don’t have equity from an existing home to put toward a new home purchase. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.
92% Of Employed Americans Have Cut Back On Spending As The Standard Of Living In The US Crumbles --The headline of this article is not a misprint. The reason why “affordability” has become the number one issue for U.S. voters is because most of the population is being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living.Just look at how much you are paying for electricity compared to five years ago. And just look at how much you are paying for food compared to five years ago. Housing costs have risen to absurd heights, property taxes have become absolutely insane in many areas of the country, and health insurance premiums have more than doubled for millions of Americans. It isn’t just a coincidence that so many people are bitterly complaining about the cost of living these days. The truth is that most of the country is experiencing very real pain.Of course it isn’t an accident that this has happened. Our politicians have borrowed and spent 28 trillion dollars that we did not have since Barack Obama first entered the White House in January 2009, and I warned that all of this money would create rampant inflation.On top of that, the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars that were created out of thin air into the financial system since 2008. That has helped the stock market hit record highs, but it has been one of the factors that has made the cost of living unbearable for the rest of us.Our standard of living is crumbling right in front of our eyes, and now a brand new report is telling us that 92 percent of employed Americans have been forced to cut back on spendingFor millions of Americans, staying financially afloat now means difficult trade-offs. As the price of everyday necessities continues to rise faster than wages, new data shows workers are cutting back wherever they can – often at the expense of savings, overall financial security and even essential needs. That is the picture emerging from Resume Now’s 2026 Cost-of-Living Crunch Report, a national survey of 1,011 employed Americans, which has found that only 17 percent of Americans feel financially secure enough to cover essentials and save money. Nearly two-thirds of respondents cited everyday essentials as their biggest financial burden. What’s more, a remarkable 92 percent said they have cut back on spending, including on items many would previously have considered non-negotiable. Please notice that only “employed Americans” were asked about the cost of living.More than 100 million U.S. adults are not working at all. The vast majority of U.S. adults that are not working are considered to be “not in the labor force” by the federal government. Another survey that was conducted at the end of December found that 70 percent of Americans consider the cost of living where they live to be “not very affordable” or “not affordable at all”…American consumers aren’t feeling great about the economy or their own financial situation, with the phrase “affordability crisis” dominating headlines and political campaigns over the last few months.The majority — 70% — of Americans surveyed in a Marist poll of over 1,400 adults taken in December, say that the cost of living in their area is not very affordable, or not affordable at all, for the average family. We are in the midst of a nightmarish cost of living crisis that never seems to end.At this stage, 60 percent of employed Americans “could only cover three months or less of expenses if they were to lose their job”…Sixty percent of respondents said they could only cover three months or less of expenses if they were to lose their job, leaving little room for error in the event of layoffs, illness or other events that could impact their financial standing. For many, even routine expenses are being trimmed.Most of the country is living right on the edge.
Did Anyone Even Notice PBS News Weekend Signed Off Permanently... "PBS News Weekend" signed off permanently on Sunday after 12 years on air. Did anyone actually notice? The answer, quite frankly, is no, and this comes after Congress cut $1.1 billion in federal funding for public broadcasting over the Trump administration's view that the public broadcasting outlet was spewing left-wing propaganda. "Due to federal budget cuts, PBS News had to make the difficult decision to rework our staffing and programming. This Sunday, our PBS News Weekend team will sign off the air," PBS News Weekend wrote on X. Due to federal budget cuts, PBS News had to make the difficult decision to rework our staffing and programming. This Sunday, our PBS News Weekend team will sign off the air. pic.twitter.com/pAREL6iUBV Starting this weekend, PBS will replace the live newscasts with two pre-taped shows produced during the week to save money and eliminate weekend staffing. "Horizons" will air on Saturdays, covering science and technology, while "Compass Points" will air on Sundays, focusing on foreign affairs.
Schools Increasingly Consider Rewarding Teachers For Results, Not Seniority --In several states and hundreds of local school districts, traditional teacher salary structures based on years of service are being replaced by merit and pay-for-performance models.The success of the Dallas Independent School District’s ACE (Accelerating Campus Excellence) program, implemented in 2016 and credited with improvements in math and reading scores, prompted many districts and state education departments to revise teacher pay due to stagnant or declining academic achievement and high teacher turnover, according to state officials.The Houston Independent School District, which the state took over due to poor student performance, will begin rating and paying teachers based on their effectiveness, not years of service, in the 2026-2027 academic year, district officials told The Epoch Times. It will be the largest school district in the nation to do this.Houston teacher salaries will range from $64,000 to $101,000, and those with unsatisfactory ratings can be fired. The annual evaluation process also authorizes the district to reduce pay if a teacher’s performance diminishes from year to year, according to guidelines released last year.The purpose of this change is aimed not only at improving student outcomes but also at recruiting and retaining good teachers, leveraging state grants, and driving equity across campuses, according to the guidelines.“It’s a very strong strategy,” Heather Peske, president of the National Council on Teacher Quality, told The Epoch Times, adding that her research determined that bonuses above $5,000 are usually effective.The Dallas school district’s teacher and principal evaluation and compensation system is based on student achievement metrics, such as test scores, as well as student survey responses.A 2025 analysis of the program by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University noted that, in addition to improved academic performance compared to other large urban school districts in Texas, teacher turnover decreased and was concentrated mainly among those who received low ratings.“While such sweeping changes may appear blunt from a distance, a close look at the Dallas reforms shows they were carefully planned to guard against evaluation inflation, the arbitrary treatment of teachers, and strategic responses such as teaching to the test,” the report said.The Lone Star State followed Dallas’s lead and created the Teacher Incentive Allotment program in 2019. So far, 809 school districts have participated in the program to pay high-performing teachers bonuses, and an additional 190 have submitted letters of intent to sign on in 2026, the Texas Education Agency said in an emailed response to The Epoch Times. Higher amounts are provided to those working in low-income and rural schools, and additional education reform measures passed by the legislature last year provide billions of dollars more for teacher salaries, with bonuses of up to $36,000 annually.Arkansas launched its Merit Teacher Incentive program ahead of the 2024-2025 academic year. Teachers are eligible for up to $10,000 in annual bonuses, according to the state’s Division of Elementary and Secondary Education website.Utah’s five-year pilot program, Excellence in Education and Leadership Supplement, launched last year. Participating districts provide $2,000 performance bonuses to teachers rated in the top 11 percent to 25 percent,$5,000 to those in the top 6 percent to 10 percent, and $10,000 to the top 5 percent, according to the legislation. Tennessee lawmakers passed bipartisan legislation last year that allows school districts to differentiate annual teacher salaries by merit and value for certain specialties, such as chemistry or special education. Adam Lowe, the Republican state senator who sponsored the bill, said the goal is to reward and retain excellent teachers who would otherwise move to neighboring states.
Senators Want To Ban Chinese Students From Government Labs - Eleven US senators wrote to Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Tuesday seeking to ban Chinese nationals from US national labs - contending that their access undermines the United States' position in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. The DOE notably oversees 17 national laboratories and funds research to advance various technologies, including energy, environmental, nuclear, and others. In November, President Donald Trump ordered the DOE to launch 'Genesis Mission,' with a goal of coordinating a national effort to accelerate AI innovation "comparable in urgency and ambition to the Manhattan Project." In their letter, the Senators expressed concern over the thousands of Chinese nationals who have access to these national lab sites, which contain sensitive information and technology. In FY2024, around 3,200 Chinese nationals were approved for such access, which the lawmakers noted does not include lawful permanent residents of the United States, "which means there are likely hundreds, perhaps thousands, more individual Chinese citizens working in our labs," they wrote. "Continuing to give access to the cutting-edge work performed at these laboratories to Chinese nationals who will turn everything they know over to the [Chinese Communist Party] directly undermines the purpose of Genesis Mission," reads the letter, which was co-signed by Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), James Risch (R-Idaho), Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Ted Budd (R-N.C.). The Senators recommend that the department implement a policy to prohibit access by Chinese nationals to national laboratory sites, information, and technology.
Rising US nonmedical childhood vaccination exemption rates may portend disease resurgence - A Stanford University–led research team estimates that county-level US nonmedical exemptions to childhood vaccine requirements rose 2.5 percentage points from 2010 to 2024, raising the risk of a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases, according to a research letter published today in JAMA. Nonmedical exemptions are those granted for personal beliefs or religious reasons, while medical exemptions are given to those with a documented condition for which vaccination is contraindicated.The analysis included data on nonmedical and medical exemptions for childhood vaccination requirements, mainly for children entering public kindergartens, from 3,053 counties in 45 states and Washington, DC. In total, 91.1% of counties had at least five years of data, and 98.0% included at least one year of data from 2021 to 2024.“US childhood vaccination rates are declining, posing the risk that vaccine-preventable infectious diseases will resurge,” the study authors wrote. “Nonmedical exemptions to school-based childhood vaccination requirements are associated with lower vaccination coverage and increased risk of outbreaks, and the American Academy of Pediatrics has advocated that states eliminate such exemptions.” The median county-level nonmedical exemption rate rose from 0.6% in 2010-11 to 3.1% in 2023-24, but medical exemptions stayed the same. The median nonmedical exemption rate increased by 0.11 percentage points each year from 2010 to 2020 and by 0.52 percentage points annually after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.Wide variation was seen in county-level nonmedical exemption rates over two periods and in county-level variation by state. From 2021 to 2024, relative to 2010 to 2020, 53.5% of the 2,842 counties with data available for both periods saw an increase in nonmedical exemptions of over 1%, and 5.3% observed an increase of over 5%. States with the highest rates of nonmedical exemptions from 2021 to 2024 were Arizona, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Wisconsin. California, Connecticut, Maine, and New York, which eliminated nonmedical exemptions during this period, saw declines.“These findings support the need to reconsider policy on use of nonmedical exemptions, which are actively being debated, to address declining childhood vaccination in the US,” the authors wrote.
Stewardship intervention fails to reduce antibiotic overuse at discharge, trial finds An effort to reduce antibiotic overuse in patients being discharged at 10 US hospitals did not achieve its primary goal, according to the results of a randomized trial published late last week in JAMA Network Open.The trial, which was led by researchers at the University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, found that a discharge-focused prospective audit-and-feedback (PAF) intervention on antibiotic consumption did not reduce antibiotic use at discharge when compared with the pre-intervention baseline. But optimal antibiotic prescribing for patients with common and uncomplicated infections was more common during the intervention.The authors of the study say the findings suggest other strategies may be needed to reduce antibiotic use at discharge, which has long been seen as an important target for antibiotic stewardship. Research suggests that antibiotics prescribed when patients are discharged home from the hospital account for up at least 40% of all antibiotic days received by hospitalized adults in the United States, and up to 70% of those prescriptions are "suboptimal"— they either are unnecessary, taken too long, or use an overly broad-spectrum antibiotic.
Diminished US nursing homes capacity may limit access to long-term care, slow hospital release - Likely due to staffing shortages, US nursing-home capacity has declined—by 15% or more in some cases—since the COVID-19 pandemic began, potentially narrowing access to long-term care and complicating hospital releases, a team led by University of Rochester, New York, researchers writes in JAMA Internal Medicine.The team used the 2018-2024 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Payroll-Based Journal to measure changes in skilled nursing facility (SNF) capacity since 2020.The number of licensed SNF beds fell 2.5%, and operating capacity dropped 5.0%, from 2019 to 2024. In total, 25% saw capacity reductions of 15.1% or more, with the largest declines tending to occur in rural counties. SNF capacity losses were larger in counties with more frequent reports of SNF staffing shortages. A decline of 1 percentage point in county SNF capacity was linked to a 0.20-percentage-point rise in reported staff shortages. Also, hospitals that experienced larger declines in nearby SNF capacity observed larger increases in average length of stay, percentage of hospitalizations lasting 28 days or more, and median distance traveled to admitting SNFs.“Results of this study suggest that SNF operating capacity declined following the pandemic, and these declines were larger than the observed declines in licensed SNF bed counts, potentially because of staffing shortages,” the study authors wrote. “Greater loss of SNF capacity was associated with longer hospital stays and increased travel distances to SNFs, suggesting that declines in operating capacity may be impairing access to care.” In an editor’s note, journal Deputy Editor Mitchell Katz, MD, and his fellow editors noted that if patients can’t be promptly released from the hospital, fewer beds are available for new admissions, resulting in long emergency department stays. “For example, spending the night in the emergency department was associated with higher in-hospital mortality and higher risk of adverse events among persons aged 75 years and older,” they wrote. “If patients are discharged, they often cannot receive the level of medical treatment or rehabilitation needed for their recovery.”
Moderna COVID vaccine 53% effective against adult hospitalization in 2024-25 season, data suggest -A large observational study using US healthcare claims and electronic health record data suggests that Moderna’s updated 2024-25 COVID vaccine was 39% effective at preventing medically attended illness among adults and 53% effective against hospitalization, particularly those at high risk for severe disease.The study, led by scientists from the vaccine manufacturer and published late last week in Infectious Diseases and Therapy, analyzed outcomes among 596,248 adults who received the updated mRNA-1273 vaccine, which targeted the Omicron KP.2 variant, from August 2024 to April 2025. Vaccinated people were matched 1:1 with unvaccinated counterparts. Overall, vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-related hospitalization was estimated at 52.8% over a median follow-up of 55 days. Protection against COVID-related illness requiring medical attention was 39.4% over the same period. During the extended follow-up period, VE against hospitalization declined somewhat but remained significant, at 45.2%. VE for COVID cases that required medical attention was 33.1% during the extended timeframe (a median of 127 days, or about 4 months). The mean age of the study participants was 63 years, and roughly 70% had underlying medical conditions such as asthma, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, that put them at high risk for severe outcomes. “Protection was consistently observed across subgroups, including older adults and those with other specific underlying medical conditions that may increase the risk of severe COVID-19,” write the authors. The researchers note that because more than 70% of individuals in the study had received a 2023-24 mRNA-1273 vaccine, the findings also highlight the incremental protection of the 2024-25 vaccine against severe illness and hospitalization. “As COVID-19 vaccination uptake remains low, it is imperative to communicate the additive protection COVID-19 vaccine provide [sic] year after year to reinforce confidence in vaccination among clinicians and the general population,” they write. The study had some limitations. Because this was an observational study (and participants weren’t randomly assigned to be vaccinated), differences between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts may have influenced the results. For example, vaccinated people may have had better health overall and/or engaged in healthier behaviors, which lowered their risk of severe illness and hospitalization. The findings also relied on data from people who were engaged in the health care system, so people with limited access to health care may have been underrepresented.
In-center hemodialysis tied to 50% to 85% higher COVID infection rates than at-home procedure - During the COVID-19 pandemic, US adults who received hemodialysis at outpatient centers had higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection than those receiving treatments at home, especially during case surges, suggests a study published in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. Investigators from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) examined rates of COVID-19 among patients at 7,974 dialysis facilities from January 2021 to May 2023 (Alpha-to-Omicron variant dominance). In 2021, 14.1% of US dialysis patients received at-home treatment. COVID-19 infections totaled 171,338 (155,499 in-center and 15,839 home dialysis cases). The pooled average infection rate was highest during “[Alpha] B.1 and other” variant predominance (6.20 and 3.40 per 1,000 patient-weeks for in-center and home patients, respectively) and lowest during non-surge weeks (1.15 and 0.74 per 1,000 patient-weeks for in-center and home patients, respectively). In-center hemodialysis patients had higher average infection rates than home dialysis patients (2.85 vs 1.69 per 1,000 patient-weeks, respectively). During surges, the differences in case rates between in-center and home patients were more apparent than during non-surge weeks for all variant-dominated periods: B.1 and other (RRR, 1.11), Delta (relative rate ratio [RRR], 1.20), and Omicron (RRR, 1.07). “Ensuring patients receive education on the different dialysis modalities is critical to ensure they are able to make well-informed decisions regarding which modality is best for their lifestyle and health goals,” the study authors wrote. “One potential benefit of home dialysis that could be discussed with patients is reduced exposure to communicable diseases.”
Economic hardship, adverse social conditions may put kids at higher risk for long COVID --Long COVID may be more common in school-aged children whose families experience financial instability and challenging social conditions, University of California–led researchers write in JAMA Pediatrics. The team analyzed data from the federally funded Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative among a subset of 903 US children aged 6 to 11 years and 3,681 adolescents aged 12 to 17 previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and recruited from 52 health care and community settings. Their caregivers completed surveys from March 2022 to August 2024. The average age of all participants was 14 years, 51% were boys, and more than half were infected in the pre-Omicron era. The study examined associations between long COVID and 24 social risk factors grouped into five domains: economic stability (eg, food insecurity, poverty); social and community context (eg, caregiver marital status, discrimination); caregiver education access and quality; neighborhood and built environment; and health care access and quality. Participants were grouped into classes from lowest to highest average proportion across all social determinants of health (SDOH) factors. The reference class (class 1) represented those with the fewest adverse factors, and the class with the highest class number including those with the most adverse factors. “Millions of children worldwide are experiencing prolonged symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection, yet social risk factors for developing long COVID are largely unknown,” the study authors wrote. “Long COVID is especially concerning in pediatric populations because of the potential for long-term physical and mental health effects that could persist into adulthood.” After adjusting for confounding factors, economic instability (including food insecurity) was tied to a more than double risk of long COVID (class 2 adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.57; class 4 aOR, 2.39), but economic instability without food insecurity (class 3) was not (aOR, 0.93). The investigators propose that healthy diets may protect against long COVID by reducing inflammation but said that more research is needed on whether addressing adverse social factors can lower future disease risk. Poorer social and community context (eg, high levels of discrimination and low social support) was also linked to long COVID (aOR, 2.17). Sensitivity analyses stratified by age-group and adjusted for race didn’t change these results. “Public health interventions that target social risk factors—such as food insecurity and lack of social support—are critical to reduce the burden of long COVID and safeguard the overall health of children as they continue to acquire COVID-19,” co-first author Tanayott Thaweethai, PhD, of Massachusetts General Hospital Biostatistics, said in a Brigham and Women’s Hospital news release.
Family history of cancer linked to increased risk of long COVID -A new study suggests that US adults with a family history of cancer may face a higher risk of developing long COVID, even if they have never had cancer themselves.The analysis, led by researchers at Augusta University in Georgia and published in Cancer Causes & Control, used data from more than 25,000 adults who participated in the 2023 National Health Interview Survey. It found that those with a first-degree relative (parents, siblings, or children) with cancer were more likely to report post-COVID symptoms lasting at least three months. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors, the researchers estimated that adults with a family history of cancer were 26% more likely to experience long COVID than those without a close relative with cancer. Overall, approximately 8.4% of adults in the study reported having long COVID. Among those with a family history of cancer, the prevalence rose to nearly 9.6%, compared with roughly 7.6% of those without a family history. The association was most pronounced among adults aged 35 to 49 years, who had a 35% increase in the prevalence of long COVID. When the researchers did a more granular analysis of the data, they found that about 30% of the link between a family history of cancer and long COVID may be explained by underlying health conditions such as obesity, asthma, anxiety, and depression. “This makes sense,” write the authors, “as adults with a family history of cancer had higher prevalence rates of certain health conditions, and the risk of Long COVID was higher among adults with underlying health conditions.” They note, as an example, that the rate of obesity was 3.5% higher among individuals with a family history of cancer, and the rate of long COVID was 3.4% higher among those who were obese.But underlying health conditions don’t explain the entire association between family cancer history and long COVID. “A substantial direct effect was found for adults of age 35–49 years,” the authors note. A family history of cancer may reflect genetic susceptibility, immune dysregulation, or environmental exposures that influence vulnerability to post-viral illness. Previous research has identified cancer as a risk factor for long COVID, but the current study is among the first to examine a link between familial cancer history and long COVID.
North Dakota confirms pediatric flu deaths as some states note surge in flu activity --For the first time in 10 years, the North Dakota Department of Health and Human Services has reported flu-related deaths in children. The agency said two children have died from influenza complications and are among the five influenza-related deaths recorded in the state this flu season.News sources said the children were under the age of 10, but no additional information was being released at this time. As of January 3, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said there have been 17 pediatric flu deaths this season.In other flu news, Michigan, Oregon, and Utahhave all noted their highest flu activity of the season so far. In Oregon, the influenza percent positivity rate is 14.8%, up from 14.4% in the previous week.Nationwide, last week was the first sign in a decline in flu activity, with 7.2% of outpatient visits for respiratory illness last week, compared with 8.2% of outpatient visits in the prior week. The number of jurisdictions reporting very high respiratory illness activity also dropped from 48 to 44, the CDC said in its weekly FluView report.Flu activity is likely to remain elevated for several more weeks.
Indiana flu deaths rise to 28, majority from 65 and older - (WISH) — Indiana added seven flu deaths in the week ending Jan. 3, the Indiana Department of Health said in an online report issued Monday.Indiana’s death toll from the current flu season sits at 28. All of the deaths have involved people from ages 25 and older, with the majority, 21, being 65 and older. Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, has recorded the most deaths of any Indiana county, seven. Lake County has recorded six deaths. In addition, the report said, flu spread for the week ending Jan. 3 was “high” in Indiana, improved from “very high” in the previous report.A separate online report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed Indiana’s neighboring states with “high” to “very high” flu conditions in the week ending Jan. 3.
CDC says flu activity probably has not peaked amid record-breaking season | CNN After a record week of flu activity in the US, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise. About 40,000 people were admitted to the hospital with flu during the week ending January 3, according to data published Friday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 10% more than the 36,600 hospitalizations in the week before. Overall, there were about 12 flu hospitalizations for every 100,000 people in the US last week, CDC data shows. Seniors are most likely to be hospitalized with flu, but rates among children are also high. At least 17 children have died from the flu this season, the CDC says – a number that nearly doubled over the past week, with eight new deaths reported. Four of the pediatric flu deaths this season have been in Massachusetts, including two children in Boston who were under the age of 2. “Flu cases are surging in Boston, and we are seeing an uptick in serious cases involving children, including the tragic deaths of two very young children,” Dr. Bisola Ojikutu, the city’s commissioner of public health, said in a statement. “While the flu is usually mild, it can cause hospitalization and death. Children under the age of two are at higher risk. Parents should get their children ages six months and older vaccinated as soon as possible to decrease the risk of severe complications. Parents should seek immediate medical attention if their child has flu symptoms and also has signs of more severe illness, like trouble breathing, decreased urination, persistently high fever or becomes extremely lethargic and difficult to arouse.” Overall, the CDC estimates that there have been at least 15 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 7,400 deaths from flu this season. Flu activity “remains elevated across the country,” and the CDC says it expects that to continue for several more weeks. More than a dozen states have flu activity levels in the highest category that the agency tracks. CDC surveillance data published last week showed that flu-like activity in the US had reached the highest level on record since the agency started tracking about 30 years ago. This week, some of those indicators have fallen, but the CDC says that does not necessarily mean the season has reached its peak. Instead, the downtick “could be due to changes in healthcare seeking or reporting during the holidays,” and more increases may come in the weeks ahead. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses are the most commonly reported, and additional genetic testing suggests that a new variant — called subclade K — that caused early and busy flu seasons in other part of the world continues to be driving the vast majority of cases in the US. Vaccination “has been shown to reduce the risk of flu and its potentially serious complications,” the CDC says. But only about 130 million doses of vaccine have been distributed nationwide this season, enough to cover less than 40% of the US population. Earlier this week, the US Department of Health and Human Services overhauled the childhood vaccine schedule, including an updated recommendation that decisions on vaccinations against flu be based on “shared clinical decision-making,” which means people who want one must consult with a health care provider. Many state health departments have broken with these updated recommendations, instead supporting recommendations from professional medical associations — such as the American Academy of Pediatrics — that continue to broadly support flu vaccination for everyone 6 months and older.
US flu activity declining but remains high -Seasonal flu activity in the United States remains high nationally but appears to be declining, according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The latest FluView report from the CDC shows several flu markers on the decline for the week ending January 10. Data from clinical laboratories nationwide show the percentage of flu-positive tests at 18.6%, down from 24.6% the previous week, while data from the National Healthcare Safety Network show the rate of hospitalizations for flu fell from 12.2 per 100,000 population to 8.4. The number of US jurisdictions reporting very high or high flu activity also fell from the previous week, from 45 to 36. The percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness fell from 7.2% to 5.3% but remained above the national baseline or the sixth consecutive week (see CDC graph below). The percentage of deaths due to flu (2.1%), however, was up slightly from the previous week. One of the states where flu activity is picking up is California, which is seeing an increasing number of cases and hospitalizations, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reported earlier this week. Among the influenza A (H3N2) viruses that have been collected and undergone additional genetic testing, 90.9% belong to subclade K, the variant that has mutated to evade immunity from the current flu vaccine strain. The CDC estimates there have been 18 million illnesses, 230,000 hospitalizations, and 9,300 deaths from flu this season. The deaths include 32 children, 90% of whom were not vaccinated. Fifteen of the deaths are new. The CDC’s weekly respiratory virus update, meanwhile, shows respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is elevated in many parts of the country, with emergency department visits rising among young children (ages 0 to four) and hospitalizations up in infants under age one year. COVID-19 levels are low but increasing nationally.
Current flu vaccine provides moderate protection against severe disease, interim analyses suggest - Two new analyses, one from France and one from China, suggest that seasonal influenza vaccination provided moderate protection during the early months of the 2025–26 flu season, despite the rapid spread of influenza A(H3N2) subclade K viruses, which differ from the strains anticipated during vaccine development for the current flu season. To estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) across France, researchers from the Hospices Civils de Lyon in Lyon, France, analyzed data from 24,267 patients tested through a national laboratory network and published their findings yesterday in Eurosurveillance. Among patients tested from November 2025 to January 2026, 5,451 (22.5%) were positive for influenza, and VE against confirmed influenza cases was 36.4%.Effectiveness varied by age. VE was highest among children ages 0 to 17 years, at 57.2%, followed by adults ages 18 to 64 years at 45.1%. Among adults 65 years and older, VE was lower, peaking at 27.7%.The data show that influenza activity began earlier and intensified faster this season than last season. The percentage of patients who tested positive for the flu in week 48 of the 2025–26 season (late November) was 12.0% (512 of 4,258), compared with 8.2% (538/6,525) in the 2024–25 season. By week 52 of 2025–26 (late December), the percentage of patients who tested positive had risen to 36.2% (1,702/4,701), compared with 35.8% (1,630/4,554) in the 2024–25 season.The early weeks of the current flu season were dominated by the A(H1N1)pdm09 subclade D.3.1.1 strain. Starting in week 49, A(H3N2) subclade K strains became more common and continued to increase. Of the over 500 samples collected and analyzed through week 50, 54.2% were H1N1, and 44.9% were H3N2, with subclade K being the most detected strain. “Despite a partial vaccine mismatch this season, interim analyses indicate a statistically significant vaccine effectiveness across all age groups,” conclude the researchers. “In the context of sustained influenza circulation in Europe, reinforcing vaccination uptake in the coming weeks is strongly recommended.” A parallel study from Beijing, China, published in the same issue of Eurosurveillance, suggests similar results. Among 9,579 patients tested from September to December 2025, 1,942 (20.3%) tested positive for influenza, and almost all of those positive tests (1,904) were H3N2 strains. Sequencing of 316 samples found that 84.8% of the H3N2 strains belonged to subclade K.Even though the 2025–26 vaccine didn’t contain antigens for subclade K, VE against confirmed cases was 41.3%. VE against H3N2 strains specifically was 39.9%. Similar to the French findings, effectiveness varied by age: VE reached 70.9% among children aged 5 years and younger but dropped to 25.3% among adults 60 years and older. For children aged 6 to 17 years, VE was 53.1%, and for adults aged 18 to 59 years, it was 25.3%. School-aged children made up an unusually large share of cases this season, note the researchers, likely because outbreaks spread easily in schools, and subclade K is highly transmissible. Both datasets suggest that the 2025–26 flu vaccine may help reduce severe cases across age-groups, even when distinct strains are circulating, and the vaccine doesn’t contain antigens for a dominant strain. “The overall evidence indicates that, despite antigenic drift and mismatch between the vaccine strain and circulating viruses, influenza vaccination remained effective,” write the Beijing-based researchers.
High-dose flu vaccine linked to fewer hospitalizations in older adults, including those with diabetes - A secondary analysis of a large, randomized clinical trial published this week in JAMA Internal Medicine suggests that high-dose influenza vaccination provides added protection against severe respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes in adults 65 years and older, including those with diabetes, a group at elevated risk for flu-related complications. The analysis, led by a team from Copenhagen University Hospital, included more than 332,000 older adults in Denmark who were vaccinated across three flu seasons (2022–23 through 2024–25). Of all participants, approximately 44,000 (13%) had diabetes. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either a high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV), which contains four times the amount of antigen of standard-dose vaccines, or a standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (SD-IIV). The researchers then used nationwide health registries to track respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations. Overall, receipt of HD-IIV was associated with reductions in hospitalization for cardiorespiratory disease (diabetes relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE), 7.4%; no diabetes rVE, 5.3%), cardiovascular disease (diabetes rVE, 12.0%; no diabetes rVE, 6.0%), and influenza (diabetes rVE, 41.6%; no diabetes rVE, 44.3%) compared with receipt of SD-IIV. The protective benefits of the high-dose vaccine were similar in people with and without diabetes. While the analysis suggests that HD-IIV offers protective benefits to adults with and without diabetes, it may confer “greater absolute benefit” to people with diabetes. That’s because people with diabetes are at higher risk for serious flu-related complications, so each vaccination in that population is more likely to prevent a serious illness, note the authors. The analysis also suggests that HD-IIV offers greater protection to those who have had diabetes for five years or longer, as well as those with diabetes-related complications, compared with those with less severe cases.
Minnesota residents delay medical care for fear of encountering ICE -Tina Ridler has been living with long COVID since 2020. The condition has sent her to the hospital many times, including a trip to the emergency department to treat a life-threatening blood clot. Until now, Ridler has never been afraid to seek medical care.Ridler, 60, is delaying health appointments at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, for fear of crossing paths with agents from Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE), who are conducting raids and arrests near the hospital. Although Ridler is a US citizen who was born in this country, she said she worries about being stopped in her car, hassled by ICE agents, or caught up in the crossfire.“You would think a major medical center would be a safe space,” Ridler said. “I’m holding off making the appointments, because I don’t want to go into territory where ICE is operating.”During a severe flu season that has already killed 32 children, ICE raids are leading a growing number of people across Minnesota to cancel important and even life-saving medical appointments, said Janna Gewirtz O'Brien, MD, MPH, president-elect of the Minnesota Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics.“There have been many reports of ICE entering hospitals and surrounding hospitals, and I think families are rightfully concerned that an encounter on their way to health care or within a health care setting could result in them being detained,” O’Brien said.One Minnesota child suffered a severe case of appendicitis because his family waited too long to bring him to their doctors, said O’Brien, who is in touch with a network of physicians across the state. “There are frequently messages asking if anyone will do home visits. or come and see babies with respiratory distress so that they don't have to come into the hospital,” O’Brien said.The problem is getting worse, said Michelle Gross, a resident of North Minneapolis and president of Communities United Against Police Brutality, an advocacy group.When ICE first arrived in Minneapolis, volunteers drove immigrants and others to their medical appointments, Gross said. “Now that ICE has shown up at some of the hospitals and clinics, people are forgoing health care altogether,” she said. “Our neighborhood sounds like a war zone right now,” Gross said. “The federal government has literally declared a war on our community.”While ICE has been in the state since early December, its presence has grown dramatically since the beginning of the year. On January 6, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced that 2,000 ICE officers had been sent to the state. Earlier this week, she announced that “hundreds more” could be on the way. ICE did not respond to an emailed request for comment before deadline. With so many families canceling pediatric appointments, O’Brien said, “we are missing opportunities to prevent illness, vaccine-preventable illness in particular, and also to provide much-needed life-saving care.”Health care providers in other cities targeted by ICE have also reported fewer patients visiting their clinics for care.About 84% of 691 health care providers in 30 states report significant or moderate decreases in patient visits since January 2025, when President Trump issued an executive order on immigration, according to a survey published by Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) and Migrant Clinicians Network (MCN) in November.Children are showing up at hospital emergency rooms unaccompanied, according to the national survey. Health care workers are seeing kids as young as 6 years old with anxiety due to fears of family separation, the survey found. “We are witnessing the creation of a generation with preventable trauma, delayed diagnoses, foregone treatments, and compromised development,” said Katherine Peeler, MD, a pediatrician and medical advisor to Physicians for Human Rights, in a written statement. “What we are documenting is systemic, orchestrated harm to immigrants, and therefore their children.
Novel XDR Shigella strain identified in Los Angeles | CIDRAP - A case report published yesterday in Antimicrobial Stewardship & Healthcare Epidemiology describes the identification of a novel strain of extensively drug-resistant Shigella in Los Angeles.The strain of XDR Shigella sonnei was isolated separately from two patients in Los Angeles with no known epidemiologic connection or transmission route a year apart, researchers from the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) David Geffen School of Medicine reported. One patient was a 34-year-old man with advanced HIV and a history of substance abuse, the other a 33-year-old immunocompromised woman with high-grade B-cell lymphoma.Shigellosis is a highly infectious gastrointestinal condition caused by one of the four species of Shigella bacteria: S sonnei, S flexneri, S boydii, or S dysenteriae. It's transmitted by the oral-fecal route; via contaminated fomites, food, and water; or by direct person-to-person contact. Symptoms range from mild diarrhea to severe dysentery. Isolates from both patients were resistant to several oral antibiotics commonly used to treat shigellosis, along with other antibiotic classes. Molecular analysis identified the resistance gene blaDHA-1, which confers resistance to beta-lactam antibiotics, in isolates from both patients. Isolates from the immunocompromised patient also carried the extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene blaCTX-M-15, which has been found in XDR S sonnei strains acquired through sexual transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in US cities. A previous study by the same researchers identified a unique strain of XDR S sonnei carrying the CTX-M gene spreading among MSM in Los Angeles. Recent studies have also documented the spread of XDR Shigella strains in other high-risk populations, such as the unhoused. The authors of the study say XDR Shigella isolates carrying both resistance genes have not been reported before. “The clinical implications of this are significant given that dual cephalosporinase producers may exhibit higher resistance than the more typical CTX-M–associated XDR Shigella,” they wrote. Most shigellosis cases are self-limiting, but antibiotics are frequently used to treat more-severe symptoms and to reduce shedding, which can help limit transmission. In 2023, however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned in a health advisory that cases of XDR Shigella were rising in the United States. CDC data showed that the percentage of XDR Shigella isolates collected in the United States rose from 0% in 2015 to 5% in 2022. Another significant finding from the report was that molecular analysis showed that isolates from both patients had a close genetic relationship and a common ancestor, even though the two patients lived 80 miles from one another, and their visits did not overlap at the institution. There were also no known outbreaks of foodborne Shigella at the time the two cases were identified.
South Carolina reports 99 new measles cases; now more than 300 cases in Upstate outbreak A measles outbreak in South Carolina continues to grow, and now neighboring North Carolina is reporting more measles cases linked to that outbreak. Late last week and into the weekend state officials confirmed 99 new measles cases in the Upstate outbreak, and 200 state residents currently in quarantine.“Some cases are travel-related exposures or close contacts of known cases. Other cases have no identified source, suggesting that measles is circulating in the community and could spread further,” the state said in a release. “We have seen measles spread quickly in unvaccinated households here in South Carolina. We also know that it can spread quickly in unvaccinated communities based on outbreaks in other states.” In total, South Carolina has reported 310 measles cases in the past six months. Of the 310 measles patients, 256 were unvaccinated, two were partially vaccinated, two were fully vaccinated, and 50 had unknown status. The outbreak is the second-largest in the United States right now, behind the Utah-Arizona outbreak, which has seen 390 cases. Of the 310 cases in South Carolina, 206 are in children ages 5 to 17 years, 69 are in kids younger than 5 years, and 29 are in adults. Several exposure sites in recent weeks have been elementary schools.Now other states are increasingly reporting measles cases and exposures connected to the South Carolina outbreak. Last week, the Snohomish County health Department in Washington state said three visitors from South Carolina, one adult and two children, visited Washington state while infectious.In North Carolina, Mecklenburg County today said wastewater levels of the virus were surging, though no cases have yet been identified in the county. North Carolina has reported five measles cases since late December, with four of the five cases connected to exposures in South Carolina’s Upstate region.In other measles developments, California has reported its first measles cases of the new year in the Bay Area. One of the two recent cases was in an unvaccinated resident of San Mateo County.
Measles cases soar in South Carolina, top 400 -- South Carolina health officials yesterday said the state now has 434 measles cases after 124 new cases have been confirmed.There are currently 409 South Carolinians in quarantine and 17 in isolation, with some quarantines extending to February 6. Mobile vaccine units will be active this week, and officials urge local residents to get vaccinated.“Vaccination now can avoid long quarantines at home for those exposed to the measles virus. Vaccination within 72 hours of exposure can prevent measles infections,” the state’s department of public health said in its update. Almost all cases come from the Upstate region in an outbreak centered in Spartanburg County that began in October and has involved exposures at several schools and churches. Spartanburg County is home to several charter schools with a significant number of students with religious exemptions from routine vaccinations. In South Carolina, religious exemption from vaccination requires a notarized form but not a doctor’s note. One of the schools involved in the initial weeks of the outbreak, Global Academy of South Carolina, had only a 17% vaccination rate during the 2024-25 school year. Of the 434 measles patients tracked in the past six months, 378 are unvaccinated and 47 have unknown vaccination status. Only six patients have been fully vaccinated, and three have been partially vaccinated. Two-thirds of all measles case-patients in South Carolina are between the ages of 5 and 17 (287 cases).South Carolina now has the largest measles outbreak in the country, and the second largest outbreak recorded in the past year in the United States. A West Texas outbreak that began last January and was declared over in August saw 762 cases. More than two-thirds of the West Texas cases were in children, including two fatalities in school-aged children.In other measles news, Utah has 25 new cases, raising the state total to 201. Southwest Utah has the most cases, at 147, followed by Utah County with 24 cases, and Wasatch County with 9 cases.Arizona officials yesterday confirmed three new measles cases in the state, all from this year. All three are in Mohave County, which has seen a lingering cross-border outbreak with Southwest Utah for several months. Arizona’s outbreak has now reached 217 infections.
New US map of MMR vaccine uptake reveals considerable gaps, potential for more measles -Researchers have mapped uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine across the United States, identifying large swaths of low uptake, indicating an increased risk of outbreaks at a time of surging measles cases, per a report published yesterday in Nature Health. Investigators at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and Boston Children’s Hospital used a validated digital participatory surveillance platform to collect and modelparental reports of MMR vaccination status among children aged 6 months to 5 years. The team applied small-area methods to produce granular, county-level uptake estimates across the country.The sample was made up of 22,062 parents in 3,109 counties surveyed from July 2023 to April 2024. Counties were grouped into five risk categories based on predicted coverage: very high risk (less than 60% uptake), high risk (60% to 69%), medium risk (70% to 79%), low risk (80% to 84%) and lowest risk (85% or higher).“Current surveillance systems rely primarily on telephone surveys with provider verification or school-entry data, methods prone to incompleteness and systematic exclusion of vulnerable populations,” the study authors wrote. “Our approach complements existing surveillance systems, including recently published county-level reports of two-dose MMR coverage, by better capturing populations who might otherwise be absent from official reporting, including homeschooled and uninsured children,” they added.Lead author Eric Zhou, PhD, of the Icahn School of Medicine, told CIDRAP News that the intent of the study is not to direct local health departments on what actions to take. "Local leaders have a better understanding of their communities, constraints, and on-the-ground realities," he said. "Rather, this type of surveillance can complement existing knowledge by offering earlier signals and finer spatial detail—such as ZIP-level variation or cross-county patterns—that may not be apparent from local data alone."The overall survey-weighted estimate of MMR vaccine uptake of at least one dose was 64.0%, representing about 71.1% of eligible children. For reference, the community immunity threshold is 92% to 94%. Coverage differed substantially by parental characteristics such as age, race, and COVID-19 vaccination status.The Northeast, Midwest, Northwest, and Pacific coast had high MMR vaccine uptake, and clusters of high coverage were concentrated in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Low coverage was seen in West Texas, southern New Mexico, northern Arizona, parts of Mississippi, and the rural Southeast. At the state level, county-aggregated estimates ranged from 61.6% in New Mexico to 79.1% in Massachusetts (median, 71.3%). County-level estimates showed even wider variation, with a median uptake of 71.4% (range, 35.8% to 86.8%). Counties with the lowest uptake were mainly in Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas, with the highest coverage in parts of Indiana, New York, and Oregon.A comparison of state-level model estimates and provider-verified 36-month single-dose MMR coverage data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that the model-based estimates were substantially lower than the CDC-reported statistics in two states (New Mexico, 61.6% vs 90.3%; Texas, 62.9% vs 93.7%). These states were also the only ones experiencing substantial measles outbreaks at the time of the analysis. An examination of county-level patterns in Texas revealed that measles cases were more than twice as likely to occur in areas with both low vaccination coverage and low-coverage neighboring states, suggesting that spatial vulnerability and low vaccination rates among young children may help explain the higher risk of outbreaks, the authors said.
CIDRAP Op-Ed: Vaccine myths that won't die and how to counter them—part 1 - In consulting rooms across America, physicians face a challenge that no medical school prepared them for. A parent arrives with a list of concerns gathered from social media, podcasts, and well-meaning friends. The questions sound scientific. The language borrows from immunology. The citations reference real studies. And yet the conclusions are wrong. These parents are not ignorant. Many are educated, thoughtful, and deeply invested in their children’s health. They have encountered a sophisticated ecosystem of misinformation that exploits legitimate parental instincts: protect your child, question authority, demand evidence. The problem is not that these parents are asking questions. The problem is that they are receiving false answers. The current moment has made this worse. The head of the Department of Health and Human Services has spent decades promoting vaccine skepticism and has now revamped the US childhood immunization schedule to have one-third fewer recommended vaccines. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which guides the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has reversed long-standing recommendations without presenting new safety data. Measles, a disease eliminated from the United States in 2000, has returned at levels not seen in decades. The information environment has never been more polluted, and the stakes have never been higher. The most persistent myths about childhood vaccines dissected below and in part 2, to be published tomorrow, are not fringe theories. They are the claims that appear most frequently in my clinical practice and in the broader public discourse. Each has been studied extensively. Each has been refuted. And yet each persists, because misinformation travels faster than correction and because these myths tap into fears that are genuinely human.
45 confirmed sick in multistate Salmonella outbreak tied to supplement --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed aSalmonella outbreak linked to a powdered greens supplement. So far at least 45 people in 21 states have been sickened. No deaths have been reported, but 12 people have been hospitalized. The CDC said people involved in the outbreak reported eating Live it Up Super Greens supplement powder in the weeks prior to illness onset. TodayLive it Up, based in New York City, informed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that it has initiated a voluntary recall of all its Super Greens supplement products, which include Original and Wild Berry Flavored pouches and packs. “Do not eat any recalled Live it Up Super Greens supplement powders. Throw them away or return them to where you bought them,” the CDC said. “Wash items and surfaces that may have touched the recalled super greens supplement powders using hot soapy water or a dishwasher.”The powdered supplement is sold nationwide, but so far only certain batches of the supplement have been tied to the outbreak, including lots of the original and wild berry flavor. Expiration dates for the powder range from August 2026 to January 2028, so many consumers may still have the product at home.Illnesses started on dates ranging from August 22, 2025, to December 30, 2025, the FDA said. Wisconsin has the most sick people, with 11, followed by Kentucky and Illinois, which have four cases each. Minnesota and Ohio each have three cases.
Nationwide chocolate recall expands to include more bars that could be contaminated– A nationwide recall of chocolate has expanded to include eight products that may be contaminated with salmonella. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) first announced the recall of Spring & Mulberry’s date-sweetened chocolate bars on Monday. A potential salmonella contamination was flagged after routine tested by a lab. The recall initially only included the brand’s Mint Leaf chocolate bars, but now affects eight types chocolate bars: “Because Salmonella can be difficult to detect and may appear intermittently, we are now expanding the recall beyond Mint Leaf in consultation with the FDA to include additional production lots made during the same time period on the same equipment,” the company said in a press release. The recalled chocolate was distributed nationwide, available for sale in grocery stores, specialty stores and online since Sept. 15, 2025. No illnesses have been confirmed in connection to the recall. Salmonella is a common bacterial source of food-borne illness that usually causes digestive issues like diarrhea or vomiting. For most people, the consequences aren’t life-threatening. However, salmonella infections can be fatal for young children, the elderly and others with weaker immune systems. “In rare cases, infection can result in the organism entering the bloodstream and causing more severe illnesses such as arterial infections (i.e., infected aneurysms), endocarditis, and arthritis,” the FDA explained.
High-dose rifampin fails to cut tuberculous meningitis deaths, may worsen outcomes - High doses of the oral antibiotic rifampin did not improve survival outcomes in adults with tuberculous (TB) meningitis compared with standard therapy, finds a randomized controlled clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Meningitis is the most severe complication of TB, occurring when the bacteria reaches the brain. Despite antibiotic treatment, roughly half of TB meningitis patients die or incur severe, permanent damage. Previous research has shown that small amounts of rifampin, the most powerful antibiotic against TB, can reach the brain. But those studies did not explore the link between higher doses of rifampin and reduced mortality. For the study, led by researchers at Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda, 499 adults with confirmed TB meningitis in Indonesia, Uganda, and South Africa were assigned to receive either the standard treatment of four antibiotics (isoniazid, pyrazinamide, ethambutol, and 10 milligrams per kilogram [mg/kg] of rifampin) or the same regimen with a higher dose of rifampin (35 mg/kg). After six months, the trial found no evidence that higher-dose rifampin improved survival. In fact, mortality was greater in the higher-dose group (44.6%) than in the standard-dose group (40.7%). “It was, of course, disappointing that this is not the solution,” study coauthor Reinout van Crevel, MD, PhD, of the University of Oxford, said in a press release. “But these are important results—we now know we need to take a different path. That’s how science works.” It’s unclear why the higher-dose rifampin group had worse outcomes, but one hypothesis is that the stronger dose may lead to a dysregulated immune response.
Trial: Lower-dose yellow fever vaccine triggers poorer antibody response than standard dose in infants -A randomized trial in Kenya and Uganda finds that infants who receive a lower dose of yellow fever vaccine have lower antibody levels against the mosquito-borne disease than those given the standard dose, suggesting that minimum-dose requirements for adults aren’t generalizable to infants.For the double-blind non-inferiority trial, published yesterday in The Lancet, researchers randomly assigned 420 infants 9 to 12 months old to receive either the standard dose (more than 13,000 IU [international units]) or 500 IU of the live attenuated yellow fever vaccine from October 2021 to June 2023.The primary outcome was seroconversion, defined as a fourfold or greater increase in antibody levels, 28 days after vaccination. Non-inferiority was shown if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the difference in seroconversion rates exceeded −10 percentage points. Yellow fever vaccine production is limited by its culture in eggs and cannot rapidly be scaled up in response to outbreaks. The World Health Organization (WHO) “recommends fractional dose vaccination to address yellow fever vaccine shortages during outbreaks,” the study authors wrote. “In adults, a 500 IU dose has recently been shown to be non-inferior to the full standard dose, but the minimum effective dose for children is unknown.”At 28 days, the seroconversion rate was 99% for the standard dose and 93% for the 500-IU dose in the per-protocol population. The difference in seroconversion rates was −6.15 percentage points, which didn’t meet the non-inferiority threshold. Twelve serious adverse events were reported; all were considered unrelated to the vaccine.“Standard yellow fever doses should be used for infants in the routine WHO Expanded Programme on Immunization,” the researchers concluded.
Mosquitoes' thirst for human blood has increased as biodiversity loss worsens -- As human presence drives animals from their habitats, mosquitoes that once fed on a wide variety of hosts might be finding new, human targets to quench their thirst for blood, finds a study in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. "Here we show that the mosquito species we captured in remnants of the Atlantic Forest have a clear preference for feeding on humans," said senior author Dr. Jeronimo Alencar, a biologist at the Oswaldo Cruz Institute in Rio de Janeiro. "This is crucial, because in an environment like the Atlantic Forest with a great diversity of potential vertebrate hosts, a preference for humans significantly enhances the risk of pathogen transmission," added co-author Dr. Sergio Machado, a researcher who studies microbiology and immunology at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. For their study, the researchers used light traps to capture mosquitoes at the Sítio Recanto Preservar and the Guapiacu River Ecological Reserve, two natural reserves in the state of Rio de Janeiro. In the lab, engorged female mosquitoes were separated for analysis. The researchers extracted DNA from the blood and used DNA sequencing to analyze a specific gene that functions as a unique "barcode" for each vertebrate species. By comparing barcodes found in the blood to a database, the researchers could determine which animal the mosquito had fed on. Out of a total of 1,714 captured mosquitoes belonging to 52 species, 145 females were engorged with blood. Blood meals consumed by 24 of those mosquitoes could be identified and were sourced from 18 humans, one amphibian, six birds, one canid, and one mouse. Some blood meals were made up of multiple sources; the meal of a mosquito identified as Cq. Venezuelensis was made up of amphibian and human blood. Mosquitoes belonging to the species Cq. Fasciolata fed on both a rodent and a bird as well as a bird and a human, respectively. The researchers hypothesized that multiple factors could play a role in their preference for our blood. "Mosquito behavior is complex," Alencar said. "Although some mosquito species may have innate preferences, host availability and proximity are extremely influential factors." "With fewer natural options available, mosquitoes are forced to seek new, alternative blood sources. They end up feeding more on humans out of convenience, as we are the most prevalent host in these areas," explained Machado.Bites are more than itchy. In the study regions, mosquitoes transmit a variety of viruses—such as yellow fever, dengue, Zika, Mayaro, Sabiá, and Chikungunya—which cause diseases that seriously threaten human health and can have long-term adverse consequences. Investigating mosquito foraging behavior is fundamental for understanding the ecological and epidemiological dynamics of the pathogens they transmit, the researchers said.
Lyme disease costs up to $1 billion annually in US, study estimates -Lyme disease (LD) carries a substantial financial burden for both patients and the health care system, suggests a new retrospective cohort study, with costs driven largely by cases that progress beyond early-stage infection.The study, published yesterday in JAMA Network Open, analyzed the electronic health records of more than 70,000 people diagnosed as having LD from 2016 to 2022. They were compared with more than 210,000 patients in the control group who did not have LD. Researchers compared costs for patients with early-stage disease with those who developed disseminated disease, which is when the disease progresses beyond the initial stages and often involves neurologic, cardiac, or joint complications. The direct health care costs of LD were substantial, note the researchers. Mean direct medical costs per each LD episode were $2,227, but that number rose to $6,833 for patients with disseminated disease, compared with $695 for those with localized, early-stage infections. While only 22% of LD patients have disseminated disease, they accounted for nearly 70% of total Lyme-specific health care costs.During the six-month follow-up, mean total all-cause health care costs for LD patients were nearly $4,100 more than for patients in the matched control group. Out-of-pocket costs also increased after diagnosis. Mean patient-incurred costs associated with LD ranged from $188 to $399, with higher burdens seen among those with disseminated illness.“Extrapolating to the US population in high-incidence states, annual costs of LD could range between $591 million and $1.05 billion (2022 dollars), with $411 to $771 million attributable to disseminated disease,” write the researchers, concluding that effective prevention strategies could help reduce both patient and health care–level costs associated with LD.
Delaware, Georgia see major commercial avian flu outbreaks The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) this week noted several commercial poultry outbreaks of avian flu, including an event in Kent County, Delaware, involving 147,900 birds that were part of a commercial broiler operation.Walker County, Georgia had the second-largest detection this week, affecting 71,300 birds at a commercial broiler breeder facility. Also recorded was an outbreak among 9,000 commercial turkey breeder hens in Meeker County, Minnesota. Smaller detections were noted in Colorado, Kansas, and Oregon. In the past 40 days, APHIS reported 70 flocks with confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), including 17 commercial flocks and 53 backyard flocks. A total of 1.17 million birds have been affected. Since the outbreak began in February 2022, more than 185 million birds and 2,022 flocks have been affected, 917 of which have been commercial poultry flocks/In wild birds, APHIS this week recorded 80 detections from across the country, suggesting HPAI is widespread among waterfowl, as more than 60 of the detections were in wild and hunter-harvested mallards.Dozens of ducks in York County, Maine, were found to have HPAI, along with geese in Douglas County, Nebraska, and a bald eagle in Hernando, Florida.
Initial CWD case identified in Humphreys County, Tennessee, deer - Humphreys County, Tennessee, is now positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) disclosed in a press release yesterday.The hunter-harvested deer was the first in the county to test positive for the fatal neurodegenerative disease. Humphreys County is in the northwest quadrant of Tennessee, which just wrapped up its 2025-26 deer season over the weekend. The TWRA submitted roughly 11,000 samples for CWD testing during the season. “Hunter's participation in CWD testing has been critical for the continued surveillance and monitoring of CWD throughout the state,” the release said. “Hunters were able to access CWD testing through participating taxidermists and meat processors or by using drop-off freezers.” The Tennessee Fish and Wildlife Commission will meet in March to finalize any deer-management changes prompted by the discovery, the release said. Caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, CWD affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. Since it was first documented in 1967 in a captive mule deer at a Colorado research facility, CWD has spread to at least 36 states, five Canadian provinces, South Korea, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. There is no vaccine or treatment for CWD. While no human infections have been documented, health officials warn against eating the meat of sick or infected cervids and urge caution when handling carcasses.
How cheetah mummies could help bring the species back to Arabia --The fastest land animal on the planet lies frozen in time beneath blistering desert sands. Researchers have discovered dozens of ancient cheetah skeletons and dehydrated bodies preserved in caves on the Arabian Peninsula, where the species hasn’t been spotted for decades.The cats’ DNA may help humans reintroduce them to the region in the future. A new analysis of the naturally mummified and skeletal cheetahs’ genetics, published January 15 in Communications Earth & Environment, suggests the lost cheetahs were most closely related to two living subspecies rather than just one. These cheetahs could be used to found new populations on the Peninsula. Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) used to sprint after prey all over Africa and across large tracts of South Asia. But today, they’ve lost over 90 percent of that territory. The cats are now mostly restricted to Africa, with a tiny population of less than 70 Asiatic cheetahs in Iran. A combination of habitat and prey loss, conflicts with humans and the pet trade probably led to cheetahs’ extinction on the Arabian Peninsula, where they were last seen in the 1970s. But their legacy remains in some surprising places. In 2022 and 2023, Ahmed Al-Boug — a wildlife biologist at the National Center for Wildlife in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — and his colleagues conducted a wildlife survey in a network of 134 underground caves in northern Saudi Arabia. In five of those caves, the researchers found preserved cheetah remains: 54 skeletons, but also seven mummies, set and desiccated by the desert’s extreme aridity. Al-Boug and his team used carbon dating on several remains, discovering that the cats ranged from only a century old to over 4,200 years old. The researchers also took genetic samples and compiled the full genomes — the genetic instruction books — of two cheetah skeletons and one of the mummies. One of these cats was closely related to Asiatic cheetahs (A. jubatus venaticus), thought to be the only subspecies once found on the Peninsula. But surprisingly, the other two were genetically allied with cheetahs from northwestern Africa (A. jubatus hecki). The findings give researchers and conservation managers a second gene pool to seed any reintroduction effort in the region, including ongoing efforts by the National Center for Wildlife to breed cheetahs and reintroduce them to Saudi Arabia. When bringing back species to habitats where they’ve been extinguished, it’s ideal to use populations that might have adaptations to local conditions, says Kierepka. The northwest African cheetahs might be adequately related to the ancient Arabian cats to have some of those crucial adaptations. However, both the modern subspecies are also critically endangered, notes Kierepka. Relocating cheetahs from these already tiny, struggling populations has the potential to cause new problems for the donor pools, and should be carefully taken into account, she says. It requires more data, but Kierepka would be curious to see more genetic analyses looking for particularly helpful traits when selecting donor cheetahs. “If they really want to pursue rewilding,” Kierepka says, that could make reintroduction more likely to succeed.
As MAHA wages war on pesticides, the GOP is caught in the middle - The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement’s crusade against pesticides is creating divisions in the Republican Party, as some members back the industry while others stand with MAHA activists. As the MAHA movement, spearheaded by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., gains power and influence within the GOP, efforts to limit liability for the pesticide industry are also growing on numerous fronts. The issue is coming to a head in Congress, at the Supreme Court and on the state level, while other Republicans remain at the forefront of pushing pro-pesticide policies. “I don’t know what these Republicans are thinking, because this is a really powerful conservative movement that doesn’t want this, and I think that they don’t have the memo yet that they need to be lining up with MAHA, because they really stand to lose their seat,” activist Kelly Ryerson said. Republicans have traditionally been supportive of big business. But the MAHA movement is vocally skeptical of pharmaceutical, agriculture and chemical companies. A key policy divide that has emerged is whether pesticide companies should have to disclose health impacts that are not officially recognized by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) — and whether they can be sued under state failure-to-warn laws for not doing so. While bigger than any one pesticide, much of the debate is related to glyphosate, a key ingredient in Bayer’s Roundup weed killer that has been the subject of numerous lawsuits alleging cancer links. “We as a company, for the past few years … have been working on a multipronged strategy to address litigation challenges. And for us … it’s about glyphosate and Roundup,” said Jess Christiansen, Bayer’s head of crop science communications. “Farmers really rely on this product, and it’s so critical to food production and keeping production safe, effective and affordable,” Christiansen told The Hill. “We need to fight as best we can against the litigation industry.” MAHA activists recently won the fight against a House appropriations provision that sought to prevent pesticides from carrying warnings on their label of health effects beyond those recognized by the EPA. Critics warned that the measure could shield chemical companies from liability. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is among them. “This is completely wrong, and some of these pesticides are linked to cancer and infertility. Why on earth would we want to shield the companies? This is not benefiting the American people at all,” she wrote on the social platform X. But other House Republicans, such as Rep. Mike Simpson (Idaho), who chairs the Appropriations Interior-Environment subcommittee, were among the provision’s supporters. “The language ensures that we do not have a patchwork of state labeling requirements,” he said last year.
Methyl bromide pesticide still widely used in California, raising health concerns - In a new study of the continuing use in California of the pesticide methyl bromide, a known developmental, neurologic and respiratory toxin, researchers from UCLA and UC Irvine found that the compound is still in widespread use across the state, from San Diego and Los Angeles counties northward through the Central Valley. In 2005, the U.S. government recommended the phaseout of methyl bromide (MeBr) because of known health and environmental impacts; these include cancer, respiratory issues and damage to the kidneys, skin and liver, with particular risk to both adults exposed in the workplace and children. Use of MeBr in farms in California largely ended in 2015, but exceptions have been allowed for the fumigation of freight containers and similar shipping needs; those uses continue to today. These topics are the focus of the study titled "Exceptional use: examining methyl bromide applications in California 2016–2022," published in Environmental Research Communications. Because of the use of MeBr in shipping, the researchers found some of the most significant exposures are in port cities, including Long Beach and the Los Angeles neighborhoods of Wilmington and San Pedro. From 2023–24, for example, air monitoring of the levels of MeBr found in western Long Beach were, on average, nearly double the state's recommendation: 2.1 parts per billion (ppb), as opposed to 1.2 ppb, and the exposure levels were even higher on some days. "These levels translate to a 'hazard quotient' of 1.6; values greater than 1.0 suggest an increased risk of negative health effects, and, in fact, we found exposures—on at least two occasions—reached hourly levels of more than 900 ppb," said study co-author Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne, assistant professor in the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health's Department of Environmental Health Sciences. "It is worth noting this same neighborhood is home to an elementary school, 600 homes and parks, and is already ranked by the state as being in the top 25 percent of environmental hazards." The risks to children are uniformly higher than those of adults due to a greater inhalation rate-to-body weight ratio, but the inhalation of fumigation pesticides by children has rarely been investigated, the researchers said. "Research in rural, agricultural communities has seen an association between proximity to agriculturally applied methyl bromide and restricted fetal growth," "Additionally, studies in California have found that an increase in the ambient air concentration of methyl bromide is associated with an increased risk of emergency department visits for asthma among children." From 2016–2022, MeBr was used in 36 out of 58 counties across California; these counties are home to more than 35 million people. The top counties reporting MeBr applications across all uses (i.e., fruits, vegetables, non-agricultural fumigation, soil fumigation, nursery/greenhouse and other uses) are Siskiyou, Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Los Angeles. Among the first four counties, all predominantly agricultural, the top uses for MeBr were soil fumigation (Siskiyou and San Joaquin) and nursery/greenhouse uses (Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus). In Los Angeles County, the primary use was non-agricultural fumigation, meaning commodity/shipping fumigation, the researchers said. "Freight transported in containers is typically fumigated as a means to reduce potential infestations or inhibit the spread of pests," Johnston said. "In the United States, foreign freight containers with certain produce, such as grapes, must be treated for pests, and in most cases, methyl bromide use is allowed at permitted facilities. These are important precautions, but the reality is there are potential alternatives to methyl bromide that pose lower health risks."
Indoor ozone reaction products can make blood thicker -Ozone that protects us from the sun's harmful UV rays, when in an indoor space, reacts with oils present on skin, wall paint, or even cooking oil to produce chemicals that negatively impact cardiovascular health. As an outdoor pollutant, ozone has long been recognized as an irritant to the lungs, throat, and nose, and now it has emerged as a major global public health issue. The 2021 Global Burden of Disease study estimated that exposure to ozone was responsible for 8.8 million disability-adjusted life-years worldwide due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, most people's exposure to ozone does not happen outdoors but mostly indoors, as we spend nearly 90% of our day in indoor spaces. The chemistry triggered by ozone in indoor environments has health outcomes that extend beyond COPD. In a panel study, researchers tracked the indoor air and health biomarkers of 110 healthy Tibetan college students living in dormitories in Lhasa, China. They measured concentrations of seven specific chemicals, called carbonyls—organic molecules with a functional group containing a carbon atom double-bonded to an oxygen atom—and assessed cardiovascular health markers during their medical visits. They found that the build-up of carbonyls like decanal was up to 15 times higher indoors than outdoors. Breathing in these indoor pollutants was associated with increases in red blood cell parameters such as hemoglobin and hematocrit, changes that make the blood thicker and difficult for the heart to pump. The findings were published in ACS ES&T Air. Indoor-to-outdoor (I/O) ratio of seven carbonyls measured in dormitories.Credit: ACS ES&T Air (2026). DOI: 10.1021/acsestair.5c00369 When ozone meets oilsOur skin constantly releases an oily substance called sebum, produced by sebaceous glands. This oil is rich in unsaturated fatty acids, squalene, and cholesterol. Ozone, a highly reactive gas, upon contact with these skin oils initiates ozonolysis, in which it specifically targets carbon–carbon double bonds in the oils. This reaction breaks down chemical bonds and initiates a chain of reactions that produce carbonyl compounds like aldehyde and ketones. Studies have found that, unlike ozone, whose high reactivity stops it in its tracks when inhaled and lingers in the upper airways, these carbonyls can travel deeper into the lungs and potentially enter the circulatory system. To measure the carbonyl levels, the researchers hung special tubes for collecting seven types of carbonyls at about 5 feet high above the students' bunk beds. Air was sampled for approximately one week before each student's medical check-up, which was conducted four times across two seasons, summer and fall. The results showed that these chemical reactions increased red blood cell counts, which can thicken the blood and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Among Tibetans, who are adapted to a low-oxygen, high-altitude environment, this overproduction of red blood cells may contribute to chronic mountain sickness. These findings are a wake-up call that indoor air chemistry, not just outdoor pollutants, must be considered in health risk assessments.
Disinfecting drinking water produces potentially toxic byproducts—new AI model is helping to identify them - Disinfecting drinking water prevents the spread of deadly waterborne diseases by killing infectious agents such as bacteria, viruses and parasites. Without disinfection, even clear-looking water can carry pathogens that can cause severe and even life-threatening illness, especially in children, older adults, and people with weakened immune systems. Before water disinfection processes were put in place, outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, and dysentery routinely claimed lives, decimating cities and even countries. Disinfecting drinking water is one of the most important public health achievements in human history. However, the chemicals commonly used to disinfect water, such as chlorine or chloramine, also react with organic matter, the tiny bits of dissolved organic carbon that are inherently present in water as it comes from natural sources such as rivers, lakes or aquifers. When these chemicals react with organic matter, they form byproducts that may be harmful to human health. Some of these disinfection byproducts, which scientists refer to as DBPs, have been implicated in certain cancers and reproductive issues. For example, DBPs like trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids have been linked to increased risks of bladder cancer as well as impaired fetal development. The Environmental Protection Agency has standards for the safety levels of some of these byproducts present in the drinking water, but not for all, says Stevens Institute of Technology Assistant Professor Tao Ye, who uses AI to analyze environmental data to understand the complex interactions of various chemical compounds. "There are 11 such byproducts regulated by the EPA," he explains. "However, so far research has identified several hundred more, which we don't know much about—and they may be more toxic than the ones that are regulated." "Traditional toxicity testing in the lab is often time-consuming, labor-intensive, and expensive, which limits how many disinfection byproducts can be evaluated," Ye says. "AI and machine learning are fundamentally transforming this process by enabling rapid, scalable toxicity screening, allowing us to assess hundreds of compounds that would otherwise be impractical to test experimentally."To speed up DBP research, Ye, et al, built an AI model to help assess the disinfectant byproducts and their toxicity. First, researchers combed through scientific studies to find the toxicity data available from experimental testing of over 200 chemicals. Then, they trained the AI model on this data to predict potential toxicity for other chemicals. "We used the laboratory testing data reported in previous literature," explains Sikder. "We collected those chemical names, their chemical structures, along with experimental exposure conditions and their corresponding toxicity values."We found toxicity values for 227 known chemicals and used them to build a machine learning predictive model to predict the toxicity for the unknown ones." The model was able to predict the toxicity for 1163 byproducts of the cleaning process. The model also found that some of the byproducts' potential toxicity ranged from two to 10 times higher than some of the chemicals that the EPA regulates, Sikder says. The team outline their findings in a paper titled "Multi-Endpoint Semi-Supervised Learning Identifies High- Priority Unregulated Disinfection Byproducts," published in the journal of the Environmental Science & Technology Letters.
House GOP unveils sweeping chemical law reforms - House Republicans on Thursday released an expansive set of changes that would limit EPA’s review authority under the nation’s premier chemical safety law — the answer to industry’s woes. The highly anticipated draft bill would make it harder for regulators to request more time for new chemical reviews, ensuring faster approvals. The legislation would also narrow EPA’s scope for restricting risky chemical uses. “When the EPA takes months or years to review a new chemical that our allies approve in weeks, we stall innovation, jeopardize supply chains, and weaken our national security,” said Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Environment.Palmer and E&C Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) announced the subcommittee will host a hearing next week to discuss the draft legislation.
Takeaway coffee cups release thousands of microplastic particles, research reveals --It's 7:45am. You grab a takeout coffee from your local café, wrap your hands around the warm cup, take a sip, and head to the office. To most of us, that cup feels harmless—just a convenient tool for caffeine delivery. However, if that cup is made of plastic, or has a thin plastic lining, there is a high chance it's shedding thousands of tiny plastic fragments directly into your drink. In Australia alone, we use a staggering 1.45 billion single-use hot beverage cups every year, along with roughly 890 million plastic lids. Globally, that number swells to an estimated 500 billion cups annually.In new research I co-authored, published in Journal of Hazardous Materials: Plastics, we looked at how these cups behave when they get hot. The message is clear: heat is a primary driver of microplastic release, and the material of your cup matters more than you might think. Microplastics are fragments of plastic ranging from about 1 micrometer to 5 millimeters in size—roughly from a speck of dust to the size of a sesame seed. They can be created when larger plastic items break down, or they can be released directly from products during normal use. These particles end up in our environment, our food, and eventually, our bodies. Currently, we don't have conclusive evidence on just how much of that microplastic remains in our bodies. Studies on this subject are highly prone to contamination and it's really difficult to accurately measure the levels of such tiny particles in human tissue.My colleagues and I first conducted a meta-analysis—a statistical synthesis of existing research—analyzing data from 30 peer-reviewed studies. We looked at how common plastics such as polyethylene and polypropylene behave under different conditions. One factor stood out above all others: temperature. As the temperature of the liquid inside a container increases, the release of microplastics generally increases too. In the studies we reviewed, reported releases ranged from a few hundred particles to more than 8 million particles per liter, depending on the material and study design.To see how this works in the real world, we collected 400 coffee cups of two major types around Brisbane: plastic cups made of polyethylene and plastic-lined paper cups which look like paper but have a thin plastic coating inside.We tested them at 5°C (iced coffee temperature) and 60°C (hot coffee temperature). While both types released microplastics, the results revealed two major trends.First, material matters. The paper cups with plastic linings released fewer microplastics than the all-plastic cups at both temperatures.Second, heat triggers a significant release. For the all-plastic cups, switching from cold to hot water increased the microplastic release by about 33%. If someone drinks 300 milliliters of coffee in a cup made of polyethylene per day, they could ingest 363,000 pieces of microplastic particles every year.
Plastic pellets known as 'nurdles' are polluting beaches and waterways -Aboard an aluminum skiff or one of her five kayaks, fourth-generation shrimper and fisherwoman Diane Wilson often plies the coastal bays and streams near her tiny hometown of Seadrift, Texas. But instead of fishing for shrimp, black drum or blue crabs, these days the 77-year-old is an environmental activist looking for "nurdles"— tiny plastic pellets that are polluting beaches and waterways in Texas and around the country. The minuscule spheres, typically less than 5 millimeters in diameter, are the basic building blocks of nearly all plastic products. But when they are mishandled during manufacturing or transport, they can slip through storm drains and into waterways, posing a health threat to both wildlife and humans. They are difficult to clean up, and act like sponges for toxins as they progress through the food chain. An estimated 445,970 metric tons of nurdles make their way into the oceans annually. "They're everywhere," said Wilson, who is now executive director of San Antonio Bay Estuarine Waterkeeper, an environmental group focused on protecting Matagorda Bay, on the Texas Gulf Coast. "They're a real threat to human health and the planet, and we're trying to protect the communities and the fishermen and the bays." California enacted a law designed to curb nurdle pollution in 2007. Now the issue is gaining attention elsewhere: In 2025, legislators in Illinois, New Jersey and Virginia introduced bills. But the threat of nurdle pollution is beginning to resonate even beyond such left-leaning states. In Wilson's deeply conservative Texas, a coalition of environmentalists, fishermen, business leaders and local officials is pushing for more nurdle regulation, arguing that the pellets pose an economic threat to coastal communities. The plastics industry has long acknowledged that many nurdles leak into the environment. In 1991, it created a voluntary program called Operation Clean Sweep, under which participating nurdle-handling operations commit to certain practices to prevent spills. But Wilson and other critics say the program doesn't include meaningful reporting requirements, oversight or consequences. "They're just being sloppy, and they can do better, but nobody's making them do it," said Wilson. "They obviously have to be forced into it." In 2019, Wilson was a victorious co-plaintiff in a lawsuit that resulted in a record $50 million settlement against Formosa Plastics, a petrochemical manufacturer that illegally dumped billions of nurdles and other pollutants into Lavaca Bay and other Texas waterways. It was the largest-ever settlement of a Clean Water Act suit filed by private citizens. Instead of being awarded to the plaintiffs, the money went into a fund to pay for projects to reverse pollution in the affected waterways. Now, Wilson is gearing up for another lawsuit: In December, she filed a 60-day legal notice of intent to sue Dow Chemical Company, alleging it has been illegally discharging plastic pellets from its plant near Seadrift. Nurdles are a type of microplastic pollution, but not all microplastics are nurdles. Microplastics also include microbeads, which are used as exfoliating agents in cosmetics and toothpaste, and tiny particles from broken-down plastic litter, packaging and synthetic fibers. Some are so small they can't be seen without a microscope. Microplastics have been detected in cities' tap water, in bottled water, in rivers and throughout the Great Lakes. Scientists estimate that adults ingest the equivalent of one credit card per week in microplastics, and studies in animals and human cells suggest they could be connected to cancer, heart attacks, reproductive problems and other harms. Nurdles are larger than many other microplastics. They can be seen with the naked eye, and their uniform shape and size make them easier to identify and collect. This past spring, volunteers scooped up nearly 50,000 plastic pellets over an 11-day period at more than 200 sites across 14 countries, 29 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. Texas sites, mostly on the coast, yielded the highest count: 23,115 nurdles. California (4,167), Michigan (3,681), South Carolina (3,094) and Ohio (2,851) also reported substantial amounts.
Microplastics found in rural woodland at higher levels than in city centers -- Air-polluting microplastics have been found in rural environments in greater quantities than in urban locations, researchers say. Scientists led by the University of Leeds detected up to 500 microscopic particles of plastic per square meter per day in an area of woodland during the three-month study—almost twice as much as in a sample collected in a city center. The findings are published in the journal Environmental Pollution.They believe trees and other vegetation capture airborne microplastic particles from the atmosphere and deposit them, highlighting the impact that different landscape and weather conditions have on the spread of the particles.And they say that these unexpected results challenge the assumption that microplastic pollution is mainly an urban problem. "Our research reveals that rural environments are not necessarily safe from airborne microplastics—and highlights how natural features like trees influence pollution patterns. This shows that microplastic deposition is shaped not just by human activity, but also by environmental factors, which has important implications for monitoring, managing, and reducing microplastic pollution. The widespread presence of smaller microplastics raises concerns about potential health risks from inhalation, regardless of whether people live in a city or a rural village." Previous studies have shown that microplastics can remain suspended in the air for weeks, with the smallest particles traveling many thousands of miles. Particles travel on swirling air currents, spreading out as the air moves. The team used a high-resolution FTIR spectroscope, which measures how infrared light is absorbed by materials in a sample, allowing researchers to identify what the materials are made of.They quantified 21 different types of plastics across four size ranges:
- 25–50 μm: the size of large bacteria
- 50–75 μm: about the size of a pollen grain
- 75–100 μm: about the size of the smallest grains of sand
- Over 100 μm: around the thickness of a human hair
Looking at how and where they settled, and weather variables across the study period, they registered between 12 and 500 particles per square meter per day. Wytham Woods recorded the highest overall number of particles, while Oxford City had the largest range of different particle types. Up to 99% of the particles were the smallest size, which are invisible to the human eye.In Wytham Woods, most of the particles found were polyethylene terephthalate, commonly known as PET, which is used in clothing and food containers. In Summertown, polyethylene, which is used to make plastic bags, was most commonly found.And in Oxford City, most particles were of ethylene vinyl alcohol, a polymer widely used in multilayer food packaging, automotive fuel system components and industrial films.Weather conditions had a strong influence on movement of the particles. During periods of high atmospheric pressure, which leads to calm, sunny weather, fewer particles were deposited, but in windy weather, especially from the northeast, particles were deposited in greater numbers. Rainfall reduced the number of particles, but those that were collected were larger.
Tire rubber decays into a potentially dangerous chemical cocktail, research shows -- The small, spongy black beads used as fill material in most artificial turf fields are called crumb rubber, which has long been touted as a major win for recycling. However, conflicting studies have alternately identified crumb rubber as either safe for people to play atop or dangerous to human health.New research out of Northeastern University investigated the decay cycle of crumb rubber, which is fashioned out of old tires. By simulating the conditions in which the rubber decays, like strong sunlight, they discovered that crumb rubber is highly reactive, generating hundreds of previously untracked chemicals as it decays, some of which are hazardous to humans.The work is published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.Zhenyu Tian, an assistant professor of chemistry and chemical biology, says researchers have long known that tire rubber produces harmful transformation chemicals as it breaks down. A transformation chemical is the product of a chemical reaction, the new chemical left behind. In the case of artificial turf, transformation results from things like sunlight, rain and natural decay over time.Tian, in previous research, quantified some of these transformation products' deleterious effects on the environment. Tian identified a chemical used to make car tire treads more durable, called 6PPD, that interacts with ozone to produce a transformation chemical called 6PPD-quinone.They found that 6PPD-quinone is highly toxic to coho salmon, a fish that spends most of its life in the Pacific Ocean but travels up freshwater rivers to spawn. Less than one microgram per liter of water can kill a juvenile coho salmon in under an hour. By weight, that's about 100,000 times lighter than a wire paperclip. Rainwater runoff from roads introduced 6PPD-quinone into the waterways where salmon return to spawn. In streams affected by 6PPD-quinone, as much as 90% of coho salmon would die before they spawned, The New York Times previously reported. Tian notes that, while they don't know how 6PPD-quinone interacts with human physiology, other chemicals identified in their crumb rubber research are known to be hazardous to human health. Tian already knew that there were potentially hazardous chemicals associated with tires aging, but how might the many chemicals involved in tire manufacture interact as they broke down? In a new experiment, Tian and his team of researchers exposed crumb rubber to a photoreactor, which accelerates the sun conditions that an artificial turf field might experience, and measured the many transformation chemicals that resulted. Madison McMinn, a Ph.D. candidate working in Tian's lab and the first author on the paper, said that they identified at least 572 separate transformation products. Tian says they were able to identify, in addition to 6PPD-quinone, two other chemicals that are known to be hazardous to humans. One of these, 4-HDPA, is an endocrine disruptor suspected to cause breast cancer. The other, 1,3-DMBA, mimics the stimulating effects of amphetamine.A 2019 report from the Environmental Protection Agency suggested that human exposure to toxins in artificial turf fields was limited due to the way such fields are used. Additionally, the concentration of any single chemical will vary in a real-world field, as the tires tend to come from multiple manufacturers and represent many different ages, Tian notes."The take-home message," Tian says, is that even though communities may consider the crumb rubber in their fields as recycled or reused, "when you put them into the ground, they are still very active. Things are changing, some things are being generated. And, over a course of four or five months, they're not going away."
EPA plans to curb states' Clean Water Act permitting power - Citing "regulatory overreach," the proposal would restrict state oversight of pipelines and other federal energy projects. The Trump administration issued a proposal Tuesday that would clamp down on state water quality reviews and veto authority under the Clean Water Act.The rule targets Section 401 of the law, which authorizes states and tribes to assess pollution risks from pipelines, hydropower dams and other major infrastructure before they can be approved by a federal agency.EPA officials said the proposal would reduce “regulatory overreach” and prevent states from unlawfully slowing down projects."Our proposed rule would maximize efficiency and eliminate delays in Clean Water Act permitting to unleash energy dominance and strengthen the economy," Jess Kramer, EPA assistant administrator for water, said on a call with reporters.Changing the Clean Water Act certification process has been a priority for Republicans and some Democrats seeking to speed up the nation’s permitting process. EPA’s proposal could make it harder for states to reject projects based on climate change and other environmental concerns.EPA drops consideration of life-saving impacts from air pollution rule -The Trump administration will not quantify in dollar terms the expected benefits from clamping down on harmful air pollutants Americans breathe, in a major departure from precedent. In a final rule released Monday, EPA halted analysis of expected gains from reducing exposure to ozone and the fine particulate matter more technically known as PM2.5. Both are associated with a variety of damaging health effects, including premature death in some circumstances.The move ditches the framework in the agency’s 2024 proposal to tighten emissions standards for new power plant turbines, which was accompanied by an analysis that estimated long-term health benefits worth up to $670 million from reductions of the two pollutants. No such forecast was prepared for the final rule released Monday. While EPA is obligated to ensure that the public “is not misled regarding the level of scientific understanding,” the agency wrote in an accompanying analysis, its traditional approach “provided the public with a false sense of precision and more confidence regarding the monetized impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone than the underlying science could fully support, especially as overall emissions have significantly decreased, and impacts have become more uncertain.”
Aerosol pollution found to thicken fog over Northern India—especially at night --Frequent, thick winter fog events are a common nuisance in Northern India, exacerbated by heavy air pollution and dense aerosol concentrations. Because these fog events often cause major disruptions to transportation and the economy, a better understanding of how aerosols influence the vertical structure and thickness of the fog is necessary for mitigation.A new study has brought researchers a step closer to understanding the mechanisms behind this intense fog thickening. The study, published in Science Advances, provides an explanation of the way aerosols interact with the existing fog, making it thicker and making individual drops larger.The researchers used 15 years of satellite data from the space-based Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) to analyze fog thickness and aerosol levels over North India. They then conducted high-resolution fog simulations, including sensitivity tests for aerosol and latent heat effects.They identified a 0.5 to 0.6-km-thick fog layer embedded within an aerosol layer extending from the surface to about 1.5 km. Fog that contained a higher density of aerosols was correlated with larger droplets, or liquid water content (LWC), near the top and thicker fog layers. This, in turn, leads to increased latent heat release."This makes fog parcels buoyant, driving vigorous vertical mixing and more droplet activation at relatively higher altitudes. In addition to condensation enhancement, more droplet activation also strengthens the longwave radiative cooling at the fog top (more droplets, more emissivity)."The enhanced cooling above the fog top and comparatively warmer fog base intensifies mixing in the fog layer. As fog parcels ascend to higher altitudes, they encounter cool and saturated conditions associated with longwave radiative cooling, further promoting droplet growth," the study authors explain.The team also says that this process initiates a kind of positive feedback loop between condensation, longwave radiative cooling, buoyancy, and vertical mixing, which is facilitated by aerosols. Ultimately, this results in the vertical extension of the fog. According to the study, the effect of high aerosol concentration is even more pronounced at night, with fog thickening by 17–25%. The team's simulations showed a persistent warm layer above the fog layer at night, which creates a strong inversion within high aerosol fog.
Hazmat response underway after suspected nitric acid release in Montague Gardens, Cape Town - A hazardous chemical incident occurred in the Montague Gardens industrial area of Cape Town, South Africa, on January 12, 2026, following a fire at a commercial facility that led to the suspected release of a corrosive chemical. Emergency services declared a hazardous materials response, closed surrounding roads, and urged the public to avoid the area while containment and assessment operations continued. Initial information released by local authorities indicated that nitric acid may have been involved. Nitric acid is commonly used in industrial processes and is classified as a highly corrosive substance capable of causing chemical burns and respiratory injury if inhaled at elevated concentrations. The incident occurred near the intersection of Montague Drive and Link Road, where emergency services established safety cordons and implemented road closures and traffic diversions as a precaution. Hazardous materials specialists were deployed to assess conditions at the site and prevent further release. Fire and rescue services responded with specialized hazmat units, focusing on securing the affected area, managing the suspected spill, and monitoring for hazardous vapors. Disaster management officials said investigations were ongoing to confirm the exact substance involved and determine the scale of the release. Residents and businesses in the surrounding area were advised to remain indoors with windows and doors closed while the incident was being managed. Motorists were instructed to avoid the area until authorities declared it safe and lifted road restrictions.
Major river deltas are sinking faster than sea-level rise, study shows --A study published in Nature shows that many of the world's major river deltas are sinking faster than sea levels are rising, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of people in these regions. The major causes are groundwater withdrawal, reduced river sediment supply, and urban expansion. The research provides the first high-resolution, delta-wide assessment of elevation loss across 40 river deltas worldwide. The findings show that in nearly every river delta examined, at least some portion is sinking faster than the sea is rising. Sinking land, or subsidence, already exceeds local sea-level rise in 18 of the 40 deltas, heightening near-term flood risk for more than 236 million people. Using advanced satellite radar technology, the team created a map of surface elevation change across river deltas in five continents. Each pixel of the high-resolution map corresponds to 75 square meters of the surface. Deltas experiencing concerning rates of elevation loss include the Mekong, Nile, Chao Phraya, Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mississippi, and Yellow River systems. "In many places, groundwater extraction, sediment starvation, and rapid urbanization are causing land to sink much faster than previously recognized," Some regions are sinking at more than twice the current global rate of sea-level rise. "Our results show that subsidence isn't a distant future problem—it is happening now, at scales that exceed climate-driven sea-level rise in many deltas," Groundwater depletion emerged as the strongest overall predictor of delta sinking, though the dominant driver varies regionally. "When groundwater is over-pumped or sediments fail to reach the coast, the land surface drops," said Werth, who co-led the groundwater analysis. "These processes are directly linked to human decisions, which means the solutions also lie within our control."
"Rude Awakening" For Travelers: Cancun Drowns In Seaweed - Cancun's busiest travel period is underway (late Dec.-March), and travelers expecting crystal-clear Caribbean waters have been shocked over the past week as seaweed piled up to shin-high levels in some of the prime hotel and resort areas. "Travelers who booked a January 2026 trip to the Riviera Maya expecting guaranteed crystal-clear water were hit with a rude awakening this week," local outlet Cancun Sun said. In recent weeks, an "atypical surge" of sargassum seaweed hit the coast and covered some of the resort town's most popular beaches... Cancun Sun reported, citing a University of South Florida study that tracks blooms and warns that the "sargassum-free season" is disappearing. Report continues: Here is what we know, and why 2026 is acting so differently. The "Winter Die-Off" Failed. Usually, sargassum is a seasonal problem. The massive "seed population" of algae floating in the Atlantic typically blooms in the spring and dies off when the water cools in November and December. That didn’t happen this year. According to USF data, the bloom remained historically strong through late 2025. Instead of withering away in the cooler temperatures, the biomass survived and continued to grow. The result? The "season" didn't end; it just paused. And now, that massive surplus of seaweed is arriving on our shores months ahead of schedule. As we detailed in our 2026 Sargassum Outlook, early arrivals like this are often a warning sign of a "major" year to come. With algorithms routing consumers to top resort destinations, you might want to think twice about Cancun at the moment. But not all is lost. There is still Coco Bongo.
House panel to revisit federal wildfire response - A House Natural Resources subcommittee will return to issues around wildfire this week, taking testimony on legislation to ramp up the federal response.Among bills on the agenda for the Subcommittee on Federal Lands are proposals for fast-response standards at federal wildfire agencies and a study recommended in 2023 by a federal wildland fire management commission.The “Wildfire Response and Preparedness Act,” H.R. 4038, would require the Interior and Agriculture departments to set standards of no less than 30 minutes to evaluate fires and no less than three hours to deploy fire suppression assets. The bill, by Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), doesn’t mandate that all fires be suppressed, nor does it recommend a standard for when wildfires should be extinguished — more contentious issues in forest management circles.
Wildfires burn 15 000 ha (37 000 acres), forcing thousands to evacuate in Argentine Patagonia - (2 videos, slides) At least one person has been injured by wildfires that have burned over 15 000 ha (37 000 acres) across the Chubut Province since early January 2026. On Sunday, January 11, 2026, the governor confirmed that the largest of the fires was intentionally set, and a reward has been offered for any information. Forest fires in Argentine Patagonia have ravaged nearly 15 000 ha (37 000 acres) since Monday, January 5. While rainfall over the weekend has helped, the fires are yet to be brought under control. The most active fires are located in the Andean sector of Chubut. The main outbreak, near the town of Epuyén in Chubut Province, has already destroyed nearly 12 000 ha (29 600 acres), according to a statement from the Chubut Federation of Volunteer Firefighters (BBVV) issued on Sunday. At least one person has been injured with serious burns, and he was taken to Bariloche Hospital, according to Governor Ignacio Torres. This summer has been one of the driest in the decade, according to the BBVV, which had warned citizens earlier this month to avoid lightning fires due to heightened wildfire risk across the province. A total of 581 people are working on the ground, including firefighters, volunteer firefighters, security forces, volunteers, and support teams. Personnel from Chubut, Neuquén, Río Negro, Córdoba, and the National Fire Management Service are working together to suppress the blazes. 63 firefighters from Córdoba and 15 from the National Service joined the efforts on Sunday. Two helicopters, 2 water-bomber airplanes, 3 amphibious aircraft, and the Boeing 737 FireLiner provided by the province of Santiago del Estero are also being used for suppression efforts. Torres said that courts have confirmed that the largest of the blazes, the Puerto Patriada wildfire, was set off deliberately. The provincial government has announced a reward of 50 million Argentine pesos (roughly 34 000 USD ) for information leading to those responsible. “The wretches who started the fire are going to end up in jail,” Torres said. Around 3 000 tourists in Puerto Patriada and 15 families in Epuyén had to be evacuated, according to the governor, while more than ten houses were destroyed by the flames and 14 more were damaged in the region, according to earlier media reports.
Tropical Cyclone Koji brings severe flooding across north and central Queensland, Australia - YouTube videos --Tropical Cyclone Koji brought torrential rainfall and widespread flooding to north and central Queensland on January 12, 2026, following its landfall near Ayr and Bowen a day before. Major flood warnings are in effect for multiple river systems, with rainfall totals of up to 600 mm (24 inches) in some areas, while thousands of customers remain without power. Emergency crews have conducted rescues and evacuations as the system moves inland, continuing to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji continues to cause extensive flooding and infrastructure disruptions across north and central Queensland after making landfall near Ayr and Bowen around 10:00 LT on January 11. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the system was downgraded to a tropical low later that day but has maintained an active monsoonal rainband while tracking inland. Stations across the Fitzroy, Isaac, and Connors river basins recorded over 300 mm (12 inches) in six hours and over 600 mm (24 inches) in 48 hours. This caused rapid rises in creeks and rivers, leading to major flooding in multiple catchments. BoM has issued major flood warnings for the Isaac, Connors, Pioneer, and Fitzroy rivers. Clermont, Dysart, and Moranbah were among the worst hit by flash flooding, with roads and low-lying properties affected. Emergency services conducted numerous rescues for residents trapped in vehicles and flooded homes. Local authorities advised against all non-essential travel in affected regions. Large sections of the Bruce Highway were closed due to flooding and washouts. The Mackay-Eungella Range Road was struck by landslides, isolating nearby communities. The Queensland Police Service reported continued road closures across inland transport corridors. Over 10 000 customers were left without electricity following Koji’s coastal passage. Utility crews are working to restore power as floodwaters recede, but access issues have slowed operations in some rural areas. Telecommunications services have also been disrupted in parts of central Queensland. Koji formed over the Coral Sea under favorable conditions, with sea-surface temperatures above 29°C (84°F) and low vertical wind shear. The system strengthened to a Category 2 cyclone before landfall on January 11, with estimated maximum sustained winds (averaged over 10-minutes) of 100 km/h (62 mph) and gusts of over 140 km/h (87 mph). After crossing the coast, Koji weakened rapidly but continued to transport deep tropical moisture inland. YouTube video The system’s remnants brought widespread rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms across central Queensland and the southern interior on January 12. BoM warned that flood risks remain high due to saturated catchments and continuing inflow into river systems. Secondary flooding is expected in low-lying agricultural zones downstream. Emergency Management Queensland and the State Disaster Coordination Centre remain activated. Shelters are operating in parts of the Isaac and Mackay regions, and additional rainfall alerts have been issued for the Gold Coast and southeastern districts as Koji’s moisture plume moves east. Koji is the second named storm of the 2025–26 Australian cyclone season. It is expected to dissipate over inland Queensland within 48 hours, though its remnants may continue to deliver localized heavy rainfall before weakening completely.
Investigating a plume of bright blue in the wake of Hurricane Melissa - Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on October 28, 2025, as a category 5 storm, bringing sustained winds of 295 kilometers (185 miles) per hour and leaving a broad path of destruction on the island. The storm displaced tens of thousands of people, damaged or destroyed more than 100,000 structures, inflicted costly damage on farmland, and left the nation's forests brown and battered. The category 5 hurricane stirred up carbonate sediment near Jamaica in what scientists believe is the largest such event in the satellite record. Prior to landfall, in the waters south of the island, the hurricane created a large-scale natural oceanography experiment. Before encountering land and proceeding north, the monster storm crawled over the Caribbean Sea, churning up the water below. A couple of days later, a break in the clouds revealed what researchers believe could be a once-in-a-century event. On October 30, 2025, the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instrument on NASA's Terra satellite acquired the image above of the waters south of Jamaica. Vast areas are colored bright blue by sediment stirred up from a carbonate platform called Pedro Bank. This plateau, submerged under about 25 meters (80 feet) of water, is slightly larger in area than the state of Delaware. For comparison, the left image was acquired by the same sensor on September 20, before the storm. Sediments from the top of Pedro Bank contain masses of calcified red algae, flaky sands made of Halimeda macroalgae remnants, and carbonate mud. The wing-like shape of Halimeda sand allows it to be lifted and transported while waters are turbulent, and finer mud remains suspended longer. Pedro Bank is deep enough that it is only faintly visible in natural color satellite images most of the time. However, with enough disruption from hurricanes or strong cold fronts, its existence becomes more evident to satellites. Suspended calcium carbonate (CaCO3) mud, consisting primarily of remnants of marine organisms that live on the plateau, turns the water a Maya blue color. The appearance of this type of material contrasts with the greenish-brown color of sediment carried out to sea by swollen rivers on Jamaica's southern coast. As an intense storm that lingered in the vicinity of the bank, Hurricane Melissa generated "tremendous stirring power" in the water column, said James Acker, a data support scientist at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center with a particular interest in these events. Hurricane Beryl caused some brightening around Pedro Bank in July 2024, "but nothing like this," he said. "While we always have to acknowledge the human cost of a disaster, this is an extraordinary geophysical image." Sediment suspension was visible on Pedro and other nearby shallow banks, indicating that Melissa affected a total area of about 37,500 square kilometers—more than three times the area of Jamaica—on October 30, said sedimentologist Jude Wilber, who tracked the plume's progression using multiple satellite sensors. Having studied carbonate sediment transport for decades, he believes the Pedro Bank event was the largest observed in the satellite era.
Rare meteotsunami causes deadly surge along Santa Clara del Mar coast, Argentina --A rare meteotsunami struck the coastal town of Santa Clara del Mar in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, at around 16:30 LT (19:30 UTC) on January 12, 2026, killing one person and injuring at least 35. The sea suddenly withdrew and returned as powerful 5–6 m (16–20 feet) large waves, inundating beaches crowded with tourists and residents. The event occurred during the late afternoon, between 16:20 and 17:00 local time (19:20–20:00 UTC), while beaches were full under hot summer conditions. Witnesses reported the sea suddenly withdrawing several meters before returning as a violent surge that inundated the shore and threw people and objects inland. Local media described wave crests of approximately 5 to 6 m (16–20 feet) above normal sea level, far higher than typical surf in the region, which rarely exceeds 2 m (6.5 feet). The phenomenon caused widespread panic as beachgoers attempted to flee the rapidly advancing water. One person, a man aged 29, died after being struck by the surge and thrown against rocks while fishing on a breakwater. At least 35 others were injured, including a person who suffered a heart attack amid the chaos. Dozens were treated for cuts and bruises caused by debris and collisions with structures. Emergency teams from Defensa Civil de Buenos Aires, local lifeguards, and health services carried out rescue operations and evacuations across Santa Clara del Mar and nearby resorts such as Mar de Cobo and Mar del Plata. Authorities described the incident as “historic and unprecedented” for the area. According to meteorologists and oceanographic specialists, the event was a meteotsunami, a tsunami-like surge generated by rapid atmospheric pressure changes and wind shifts associated with a passing frontal system, not by seismic activity. The pressure disturbance likely induced a resonant oscillation in the continental shelf waters, producing a sudden rise and fall of the sea surface. Such phenomena are rare along Argentina’s Atlantic coast, though weaker events have been recorded in recent years. Oceanographers noted that the local geometry of Mar Chiquita Bay may amplify meteotsunami waves when specific meteorological conditions align. No tide-gauge measurements have yet been released to confirm the exact wave heights. Officials urged caution and reminded the public that if a rapid sea withdrawal is observed without warning, people should immediately move inland and away from the shoreline. Experts say current monitoring systems in the region are not designed to forecast meteotsunamis, but research into early-warning methods is ongoing.Arctic cold wave freezes Lapland airports, disrupts travel across northern Europe - Thousands of tourists were stranded in northern Finland on January 11, 2026, after flights at Kittilä Airport were canceled due to extreme cold that made de-icing and fueling operations impossible. Temperatures dropped to −37°C (−34.6°F), one of the lowest readings of the winter season, amid a wider Arctic cold outbreak affecting large parts of northern and central Europe.. Airport operator Finavia confirmed that prolonged low temperatures had frozen de-icing equipment and hindered refueling systems. The airport, which serves as a main gateway for tourists visiting Lapland’s winter resorts, experienced significant congestion as thousands of passengers were left stranded. Finavia noted that, in addition to the severe cold, unusually high moisture levels in the air, especially around Kittilä, intensified the effects of frost, making operations increasingly difficult. The combination of extremely low temperatures and humidity caused connectors, refueling lines, and doors on ground equipment to freeze, posing challenges for apron crews and maintenance teams. Some airlines redirected flights to alternate airports farther south, though ground connections were also affected by the persistent cold. According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), temperatures across Lapland remained below −30°C (−22°F) for several consecutive days, with forecasts indicating values potentially reaching −40°C (−40°F) early in the week. In Savukoski, a weather station registered the lowest temperature of the season on January 10, when the mercury fell to −42.8°C (−45°F), surpassing the previous day’s −41.4°C (−42.5°F). Such readings are uncommon even for the region, where average January lows in Kittilä are typically near −15°C (5°F). The cold conditions are linked to a broad Arctic air mass extending across northern and central Europe. Germany, the Baltic states, and parts of Poland also reported travel disruptions, with train cancellations, power outages, and snow-related accidents. The FMI described the ongoing pattern as part of a persistent high-pressure system over the Arctic, directing cold continental air into the region. In Kittilä, Finavia said normal operations would resume once temperatures rise sufficiently for de-icing fluids and mechanical systems to function properly. Meteorologists expect a gradual easing of the cold by mid-week as the high-pressure area weakens.
2025 was third hottest year on record: climate monitors -The planet logged its third hottest year on record in 2025, extending a run of unprecedented heat, with no relief expected in 2026, global climate monitors said Wednesday. The last 11 years have now been the warmest ever recorded, with 2024 topping the podium and 2023 in second place, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service and Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization. For the first time, global temperatures exceeded 1.5C relative to pre-industrial times on average over the last three years, Copernicus said in its annual report. "The warming spike observed from 2023-2025 has been extreme, and suggests an acceleration in the rate of Earth's warming," Berkeley Earth said in a separate report. The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement commits the world to limiting warming to well below 2C and pursuing efforts to hold it at 1.5C—a long-term target scientists say would help avoid the worst consequences of climate change. UN chief Antonio Guterres warned in October that breaching 1.5C was "inevitable" but the world could limit this period of overshoot by cutting greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible. Copernicus said the 1.5C limit "could be reached by the end of this decade -– over a decade earlier than predicted". But efforts to contain global warming were dealt another setback last week as President Donald Trump said he would pull the United States—the world's second-biggest polluter after China—out of the bedrock UN climate treaty. Temperatures were 1.47C above pre-industrial times in 2025—just a fraction cooler than in 2023—following 1.6C in 2024, according to Copernicus. The World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency, said two of eight datasets it analyzed showed 2025 was the second warmest year, but the other six datasets ranked it third. The WMO put the 2023-2025 average at 1.48C but with a margin of uncertainty of plus-minus 0.13C. Despite the cooling La Niña weather phenomenon, 2025 "was still one of the warmest years on record globally because of the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere", WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. Some 770 million people experienced record-warm annual conditions where they live, while no record-cold annual average was logged anywhere, according to Berkeley Earth. The Antarctic experienced its warmest year on record while it was the second hottest in the Arctic, Copernicus said. An AFP analysis of Copernicus data last month found that Central Asia, the Sahel region and northern Europe experienced their hottest year on record in 2025.
Damn the torpedoes! Trump ditches a crucial climate treaty as he moves to dismantle America's climate protections -- On Jan. 7, 2026, President Donald Trump declared that he would officially pull the United States out of the world's most important global treaty for combating climate change. He said it was because the treaty ran "contrary to the interests of the United States." His order didn't say which U.S. interests he had in mind. Americans had just seen a year of widespread flooding from extreme weather across the U.S. Deadly wildfires had burned thousands of homes in the nation's second-largest metro area, and 2025 had been the second- or third-hottest year globally on record. Insurers are no longer willing to insure homes in many areas of the country because of the rising risks, and they are raising prices in many others. For decades, evidence has shown that increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, largely from burning fossil fuels, are raising global temperatures and influencing sea level rise, storms and wildfires. The climate treaty—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—was created to bring the world together to find ways to lower those risks.Trump's order to now pull the U.S. out of that treaty adds to a growing list of moves by the administration to dismantle U.S. efforts to combat climate change, despite the risks. Many of those moves, and there have been dozens, have flown under the public radar. A year into the second Trump administration, you might wonder: What's the big deal with the U.S. leaving the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change now? After all, the Trump administration has been ignoring the UNFCCC since taking office in January. This action is different. It vacates an actual treaty that was ratified by the U.S. Senate in October 1992 and signed by President George H.W. Bush. America's ratification that year broke a logjam of inaction by nations that had signed the agreement but were wary about actually ratifying it as a legal document. Once the U.S. ratified it, other countries followed, and the treaty entered into force on March 21, 1994. In early January 2025, the United States had reestablished itself as a world leader in climate science and was still working domestically and internationally to combat climate risks. A year later, the U.S. government has abdicated both roles and is taking actions that will increase the likelihood of catastrophic climate-driven disasters and magnify their consequences by dismantling certain forecasting and warning systems and tearing apart programs that helped Americans recover from disasters, including targeting the Federal Emergency Management Agency. To my mind, as a scholar of both environmental studies and economics, the administration's moves enunciated clearly its strategy to discredit concerns about climate change. At the same time, it promotes greater production of fossil fuels. It's "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!" with little consideration for what's at risk. Trump's repudiation of the UNFCCC could give countries around the world cover to pull back their own efforts to fight a global problem if they decide it is not in their myopic "best interest." So far, the other countries have stayed in both that treaty and the Paris climate agreement. However, many countries' promises to protect the planet for future generations were weaker in 2025 than hoped. The U.S. pullout may also leave the Trump administration at a disadvantage: The U.S. will no longer have a formal voice in the global forum where climate policies are debated, one where China has been gaining influence since Trump returned to the presidency.
La Niña breakdown underway as models point to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026 - La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific show signs of a transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions, with potential for El Niño development later in 2026. Observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show subsurface ocean warming and westerly wind anomalies across the central Pacific, indicating the breakdown of the three-year La Niña phase. Subsurface and surface observations across the equatorial Pacific suggest that the La Niña episode dominating the global climate since 2023 is weakening. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts show the Niño 3.4 region, a key ENSO indicator, has warmed toward the −0.5°C, the threshold of transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. Westerly wind bursts along the equator have disrupted the easterly trade-wind pattern, allowing deeper, warmer water to surface and spread eastward. According to NOAA’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued on January 9, there is a 75% probability that ENSO-neutral conditions will emerge between January and March 2026. Beyond that period, ensemble forecasts from NOAA, ECMWF, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) show a gradual rise in the likelihood of El Niño development by late boreal summer or early autumn 2026, with probabilities near 35–40 %. At present, no agency has confirmed an El Niño event, but model consensus points to an increasing probability later in the year. ENSO-neutral periods often persist for several months before a new phase is fully established. The physical mechanisms driving the collapse are consistent with previously observed ENSO reversals. Weakened trade winds reduce upwelling of cold subsurface water in the eastern Pacific, allowing accumulated subsurface heat to surface. This process flattens the thermocline–the layer separating warm and cool ocean water; and initiates a basin-wide warming phase. If this ocean-atmosphere coupling continues, a full El Niño phase could be established by the second half of 2026.
El Niño events projected to cut life expectancy gains and cost trillions by 2100 - The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the planet's greatest driver of year-to-year climate swings, shapes temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather around the world. Its impact ranges from heat waves and floods to air pollution and disruptions to food security, with growing evidence that these climate fluctuations influence human health and economic growth. A new interdisciplinary study led by researchers from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), with collaborators from the City University of Hong Kong, has found that the intensifying positive phase of ENSO, also known as El Niño events, could significantly reduce life expectancy across high-income Pacific Rim countries, resulting in economic losses of up to US$35 trillion by the end of the 21st century. Using over six decades of mortality records from 10 high-income Pacific Rim countries, the research team shows that El Niño is a persistent driver of health and economic loss, not just a short-term weather anomaly. El Niño-driven climate extremes, such as heat waves and air pollution, disrupt health care systems and raise long-term mortality risks, particularly among vulnerable populations.The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that El Niño events not only cause immediate health impacts but also persistently slow long-term improvements in mortality rates, leading to enduring reductions in life expectancy. . "Our study finds that in a warming climate, recurring El Niño events quietly chip away at the health gains that Pacific Rim societies usually achieve over time. Even in relatively wealthy and well-resourced countries and regions, each major El Niño event can slow the improvements in life expectancy that people would otherwise have enjoyed.""This research makes clear that El Niño is not just a climate phenomenon—it is a long-term societal and economic shock. We found that the societal costs of ENSO are much larger than they first appear by showing how climate variability persistently slows improvements in mortality. The impact accumulates quietly over decades, shaping economic growth, inequality and fiscal sustainability across entire societies." ENSO swings between two opposing phases: El Niño (warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooling), and is well known for its strong influence on climate patterns across the Pacific Rim and Southeast Asia. The researchers' analysis of mortality data from 1960 to 2022 found that major El Niño events slow down long-run improvements in mortality and life expectancy. ENSO events disrupt mortality improvement, slowing down advancements in health care and living conditions. The researchers found that during periods of ENSO-neutral years, all-age mortality across the Pacific Rim declined by an average of 2.1 percentage points per year. However, five years after an El Niño event, this improvement weakens dramatically to -0.6 percentage points, indicating a deterioration in human mortality outcomes linked to more deaths from projected El Niño-related climate stresses. The researchers estimated that the 1982–83 and 1997–98 episodes reduced life expectancy gains at birth by about 0.5 and 0.4 years respectively. This translates to associated economic losses of roughly US$2.6 trillion and US$4.7 trillion.
Hawaii's Kilauea volcano puts on spectacular lava display-- Hawaii's Kilauea was spraying a spectacular fountain of lava on Monday, keeping up its reputation as one of the world's most active volcanoes.For over a year now, Kilauea has been regularly throwing out thousands of tons of molten rock and gases since it burst to life in December 2024. Volcanologists with the US Geological Survey said the incandescent lava was being hurled more than 1,500 feet (460 meters) into the air, with plumes of smoke and gases rising as high as 20,000 feet (six kilometers).Eruptions such as this one tend to last around one day, the USGS said, but can still vent up to 100,000 tons of sulfur dioxide.This gas reacts in the atmosphere to create a visible haze known as vog—volcanic smog—which can cause respiratory and other problems. Tiny slivers of volcanic glass, known as "Pele's hair," are also being thrown into the air.Named after Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of volcanoes, the strands can be very sharp and can cause irritation to the skin and eyes. The eruption poses no immediate danger to any human settlement, with the caldera having been closed to the public for almost two decades.Kilauea has been very active since 1983 and erupts relatively regularly. It is one of six active volcanoes located in the Hawaiian Islands, which also include Mauna Loa, the largest volcano in the world.Kilauea is much smaller than neighboring Mauna Loa, but it is far more active and regularly wows helicopter-riding tourists who come to see its red-hot shows.
CME and coronal hole influences cause G1-G2 geomagnetic storming, M3.3 flare erupts beyond solar limb - A long-duration M3.3 flare erupted from just beyond the east-southeast limb at 23:14 UTC on January 11, 2026, as CME and coronal hole influences continued to disturb the solar wind environment. The geomagnetic field reached G1 – Minor to G2 – Moderate storm levels on January 10–11 under combined CME and coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Elevated solar wind parameters and unsettled-to-active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist through January 14. Solar activity reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours, with a long-duration M3.3 flare from just beyond the east-southeast limb. The flare peaked at 23:14 UTC on January 11 and originated from a region not yet visible on the Earth-facing disk. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced, but it’s directed away from Earth. Region 4336 (beta-gamma) remained the most active sunspot group, producing multiple C-class flares, including an impulsive C3.0 flare at 14:18 UTC on January 11. The region exhibited gradual decay in its trailing spots. Region 4339 (alpha) showed weak redevelopment, with new leader spots emerging west and north of its prior position. A new region, numbered 4340 (beta), was identified during the period but remained inactive. The remaining regions across the visible solar disk displayed gradual decay and no significant flare activity. Earth remains under the influence of the CME that departed the Sun on January 8, transitioning gradually toward weaker but persistent CH HSS dominance.
Blocking the sun – the folly of solar geoengineering - Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) - The startup Make Sunsets is attempting to cool the planet by releasing sulfur dioxide balloons into the stratosphere, an act of solar geoengineering inspired by volcanic cooling. While the company has secured funding, it faces intense regulatory scrutiny and legislative bans across multiple U.S. states. Opponents warn of “termination shock,” where sudden cessation of aerosols could cause catastrophic warming and biodiversity loss. Additionally, skeptics argue that current CO2 levels support vital vegetation growth, suggesting that artificial cooling might inadvertently cause global famine. Ultimately, the article warns that such environmental “fiddling” represents a dangerous hubris with potentially backfiring consequences.
Sinking boreal trees in the deep Arctic Ocean could remove billions of tons of carbon each year --Global efforts to reduce pollution will not be enough to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, scientists say. We will also need to extract over 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year for the next century. However, currently only two gigatons are being removed annually, so we have to rapidly scale up existing methods or come up with new ideas.A recent paper published in the journal npj Climate Action proposes a novel nature-inspired solution, which is to sink timber from boreal forests deep into the Arctic Ocean. Trees are excellent at capturing carbon through photosynthesis, turning the gas into wood as they grow. However, when they rot, die, or are destroyed by fire, the stored carbon is released right back into the atmosphere.This is the problem that Ulf Büntgen from Cambridge University and colleagues are trying to solve. Their big idea is to chop down specific plots of boreal forests in Russia, Canada and Alaska and float the logs down Arctic rivers to the ocean. These mature trees are at high risk of forest fires and store carbon less efficiently than younger trees.Once in the Arctic Ocean, the team suggests sinking the timber to the ocean floor, where it would remain preserved for thousands of years. They argue this is an excellent location because the deepwater is extremely cold and low in oxygen (so the bacteria and fungi that eat wood can't survive), which may prevent the wood from rotting. The final part of the plan is to immediately plant the harvested forest areas with new trees to restart the carbon-capturing cycle.The scientists used computer models to see how their idea would play out in the real world. They calculated that if just 1% of boreal forest were managed this way, we could remove 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide every year."We suggest further exploration of the potential of harvesting and rafting large quantities of boreal timber into the Arctic Ocean for CO2 removal and multi-millennial scale storage," commented the study authors in their paper. While the calculations look promising, the researchers also point out a few cultural, environmental and geopolitical hurdles that may complicate matters. These include whether sinking millions of logs would harm creatures living on the ocean floor, the rights of Indigenous peoples who live and manage these forests and how different countries would share the carbon credits.
WV’s ARCH2 Hydrogen Hub “Stalled” Due to Lack of H2 Buyers - Marcellus Drilling News - Sorry, Field of Dreams, but if you build it, they don’t necessarily come. That’s the hard lesson for one of the biggest boondoggles of the Biden years—seven hydrogen hub projects (from 33 finalists) promised a collective $7 billion in federal funding (see Hydrogen Hub Winners Announced – WV Takes Prize in M-U Region). Among the winners was the West Virginia-led Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2), which is a project that will use Marcellus/Utica natural gas as the feedstock to produce “blue” hydrogen, which is hydrogen made from natgas where carbon dioxide from the process is captured and either used or stored underground. ARCH2 qualified for up to $925 million of taxpayer money. But then Donald Trump was elected, and he can sniff out a grifting boondoggle a mile away, putting some of the projects (but not ARCH2) on hold (see ARCH2 and MACH2 Hydrogen Hub Projects Keep Fed Funding, For Now).
Michigan to Study White Hydrogen's Potential | RBN Energy - Michigan will study whether the state’s naturally occurring hydrogen deposits — also referred to as white hydrogen — have the potential to help some of the most pollution-heavy sectors of its economy, including manufacturing, heavy-duty transportation and maritime shipping, according to an executive order signed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer on January 15. The Michigan Geologic Hydrogen Exploration and Preparedness Initiative, created by the governor’s order, aims to coordinate statewide planning, regulatory readiness, workforce and economic strategy, infrastructure assessment and environmental evaluation. Whitmer’s order also called on the state’s Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy to submit a report by April 1 on a variety of topics, including permitting, technical needs and opportunities, and the potential use of existing oil and gas wells and related infrastructure for use in geologic hydrogen production. (As we noted in Hard to Handle, hydrogen’s unique properties make using natural gas infrastructure a difficult task.) The first comprehensive map showing the prospective locations of naturally occurring hydrogen in the contiguous U.S. (see below) was published in January 2025 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The map assesses which regions have the necessary geological conditions — hydrogen sources, reservoir rocks and seals to trap the gas — for hydrogen accumulation. The map assigns relative prospectivity values from 0 to 1, and areas like Michigan with higher values (deep blue on the map) are likelier to contain geologic hydrogen accumulations than areas with lower values. But as we noted in Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood, there is no strategy for accessing and developing those resources today.
Judge rejects Trump DOE grant cancellations in blue states - A federal judge ordered the Department of Energy on Monday to restore nearly $28 million in environmental project grants for recipients located in states where Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Judge Amit Mehta of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled that DOE’s move violated discrimination protections under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution, though he tossed out another set of claims that the cancellations ran afoul of First Amendment safeguards for free speech.“The key question is whether Defendants’ deliberate grouping of awardees based on whether the state in which they reside voted for President Trump is rationally related to DOE’s stated objective of aligning grant funding with the new administration’s priorities,” wrote Mehta, an Obama appointee. “To ask the question is to answer it.”The cancellations at issue in the case were among more than 300 awards totaling $7.56 billion that DOE canceled in October at the start of the government shutdown. Mehta in his ruling noted the “unusual” nature of the terminations, writing that they were initially delivered not on official DOE letterhead, but on letters with the “Department of Energy” typed at the top. He also noted that DOE spared nearly identical projects in states that went for Trump in 2024. The judge wrote that while political considerations do not automatically invalidate an agency action, there must be a rational relationship between the government’s interests and its decision to draw such a distinction between grant recipients. Mehta disagreed, however, with the challengers’ claims that DOE’s grant cancellations violated the First Amendment’s prohibition of retaliation against protected speech. The challengers — a group that includes the city of Saint Paul, Minnesota, and the Environmental Defense Fund — could not assert the First Amendment rights of the residents of the states in which they reside, he found. DOE did not respond to a request for comment on the ruling.
Rigs-to-Reefs hearing sparks fight over Trump energy plans -A House hearing on a bipartisan bill promoting the use of decommissioned offshore oil rigs as artificial reefs instead devolved into a contentious partisan squabble Tuesday as lawmakers debated the merits of offshore drilling and the Trump administration’s oversight of it.The Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources hearing was intended to discuss H.R. 5745, the “Marine Fisheries Habitat Protection Act,” sponsored by Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Miss.). The bill would expand the use of old offshore oil platforms as artificial reefs by streamlining a decades-old permitting process for doing so in federal waters along the five Gulf Coast states — Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.But the hearing detoured into a debate over offshore drilling, and assertions by some Democrats that the proposal amounts to a financial and regulatory giveaway for the oil and gas industry, and is an “extreme waiver of responsibilities” for their infrastructure.The bill, among other things, would allow the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, in concert with the individual states, to designate Reef Planning Areas. And it would direct BSEE to submit maps of idle offshore structures with reefs to Congress, the Interior secretary and the NOAA administrator.
Judge reverses Trump order halting Revolution Wind - A federal judge overturned an Interior Department order halting construction of a $6.2 billion offshore wind project serving New England on Monday, dealing a setback to President Donald Trump’s attempts to shut down coastal wind projects. The injunction issued by Judge Royce Lamberth of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia allows construction to resume at Revolution Wind, a 65-turbine project capable of powering 350,000 homes. It marks the second time Lamberth has overturned an Interior order seeking to halt construction of the project off Connecticut and Rhode Island. In September, he rejected Interior’s claim that the project constituted a threat to national security, calling it the height of “arbitrary and capricious action.” That claim centered on electromagnetic emissions from the project’s transmission cable. Interior issued a second stop-work order to Revolution Wind last month, citing a new classified report by the Department of Defense that asserted the massive turbines could disrupt military radar. Stop-work orders were also issued to four other offshore wind projects under construction along the East Coast. Trump, a longtime critic of offshore wind, bragged about stopping construction of wind farms during a meeting with oil executives Friday. Those types of statements appeared to hurt the government’s case in court.Lamberth said his concerns were “heightened” after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum criticized offshore wind projects in December “for a variety of reasons unrelated to national security.”In his ruling from the bench Monday, Lamberth said the government had failed to explain why the new information warranted a halt to construction, calling it an”unreasonable and seemingly unjustified” change in position.“The balance of equity is clearly cut in favor of Revolution Wind continuing work while the government considers ways to mitigate any new national security concerns that the project may implicate,” he said.Revolution Wind, a 704-megawatt project, has contracts to sell electricity to utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island. It is slated to begin commercial operations next year.The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, a division of Interior, took a month to issue its stop-work order after receiving DOD’s report, suggesting that the turbines did not constitute the threat claimed by the government, Lamberth noted.“When I stayed the bureau’s first stop-work order back in September 2025, I said the bureau’s failure to provide any reasoning for its decision was the height of arbitrary and capricious action,” Lamberth said Monday. “This time the government did provide a reason for its decision, but its failure to explain or apply that reasoning suggests the stated national security reason may have been pre-textual.”
Legal tests await Trump’s offshore energy agenda in 2026 - From stalled offshore wind turbines along the Eastern Seaboard to an oil drilling boom off the Gulf Coast, the Trump administration’s moves to shake up the energy sector are getting their day in court in 2026. This year, federal judges will decide the legality of the Trump team’s reversals of advances in the offshore wind industry and its push to open more of the nation’s waters to fossil fuel development. The court battles are expected to help shape the U.S. energy mix for decades to come. “The next 12 months are going to be extraordinarily important for the nation’s long-term protection of the environment and commitment to renewable energy,” said Basil Seggos, partner and senior policy director at the law firm Foley Hoag. Last month, a federal court in Boston ruled the Trump administration had failed to properly support its decision to halt all new wind approvals. At the Interior Department, regulators have moved to block individual authorizations for several offshore wind projects near completion. And just this week, a federal judge has intervened to allow a New England wind farm to move forward, with more legal challenges for other projects pending. “I think for the rest of this administration, offshore wind is going to have a lot of problems,” said Keith Hall, director of the Energy Law Center at Louisiana State University. Other federal courts are poised to decide whether the administration had legal grounds to reverse protections against offshore oil and gas drilling instituted during the Obama administration and expanded under former President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, environmental groups are pushing for more analysis of how a renewed push by the Trump administration and Congress for more offshore oil and gas leasing is likely to affect marine life and ocean habitats. “The climate is at stake,” said Brettny Hardy, a staff attorney at Earthjustice, which is challenging plans to expand offshore leasing. “All these sensitive areas — especially in Alaska — they’re going to be marred by infrastructure, production, potentially oil spills, noise, seismic activities,” she said, “all of it for something we don’t need right now.” The Trump administration’s anti-offshore-wind directives are spurring new lawsuits that will define the bounds of the president’s power to block individual projects and issue sweeping bans on new approvals. After a year of stymieing offshore wind development, Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued a new order in late December halting construction of five projects along the East Coast: Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, Sunrise Wind and Empire Wind 1. The new actions are vulnerable to litigation, said Michael Gerrard, faculty director of Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. “All these wind projects underwent intensive, multiyear environmental review across numerous federal and state agencies,” Gerrard said. He said BOEM’s order halting construction will “deepen the chill” on a range of domestic manufacturing and threaten to “worsen the crisis over electric bill affordability.”Democratic-led states and nearly all the developers targeted by Trump’s order have individually sued over the directive. On Monday, a federal district court judge in Washington, D.C., issued an order from the bench blocking the administration’s construction pause for Revolution Wind off the coasts of Connecticut and Rhode Island. The court found that the Trump administration had failed to explain its rationale for blocking the project.Earlier in December, a federal judge in Massachusetts rejected sweeping directives to halt all new wind approvals issued soon after Trump began his second term, finding the administration had failed to properly explain its moves.The decision was a spark of optimism for advocates in a year that has otherwise seen a lot of setbacks for offshore wind and renewable energy, said Seggos, who previously served for nearly a decade as commissioner for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.
GOP unveils energy-heavy framework for ‘reconciliation 2.0’ - House Republicans officially kicked off their pursuit of a second budget reconciliation bill this Congress, unveiling a policy framework Tuesday morning loaded with energy and environment provisions.The blueprint, which the 190-member Republican Study Committee developed over the past several months, represents the GOP’s first concrete step toward another party-line bill as the conference looks to score more legislative wins ahead of the November midterm elections.Committee leaders cast the framework as a “vetted menu” of policy options for the broader conference to consider. It includes numerous proposals intended to streamline the permitting process for energy projects, as well as ideas for killing energy efficiency standards, overhauling the government’s regulatory process, and imposing new restrictions on federal grants and subsidies.House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and some other Republican leaders in Congress are bullish on the prospect of advancing a sequel to last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, even as President Donald Trump and some other key players have thrown cold water on the idea. “It would be political malpractice if we did not pursue a reconciliation 2.0 plan,” Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), chair of the Republican Study Committee, told reporters Tuesday.“There’s no reason to stop our progress right now,” Pfluger added. “We have momentum on our side, and there’s more work to be done.”The framework includes several dozen bullet points, not legislative text, so the exact nature of some of the proposals is not completely clear. The extent of some of the proposals’ budget impacts — a requirement for inclusion in a reconciliation law — is also unclear.Republicans want to try again to pass a version of the “REINS Act” through reconciliation. The legislation, a conservative priority, would restrict an administration’s ability to implement major rules without Congress’ approval.Under the heading “Energy Independence and Economic Security for All Americans,” the RSC included multiple proposals to ease permitting-related obstacles for energy and infrastructure projects.One would establish a program called “Keeping the American Promise” that would “provide economic protection” against future administrations canceling approved permits, licenses and investments for fossil fuel projects. The framework does not mention renewables or energy sources with broad bipartisan support, such as nuclear and geothermal. Another proposal would impose “royalty-style fees” on plaintiffs suing the federal government for alleged violations of “procedural environmental laws.” The fees’ revenues would go toward the Department of Justice’s Environment and Natural Resources Division. Republicans included a plan to establish categorical exclusions — presumably under the National Environmental Policy Act — for “forest management-related activities.” The goal would be “protecting natural resources and promoting effective wildfire management,” according to the framework.The framework also includes a proposal to impose a fee on states’ applications for waivers that would allow them to set more stringent pollution limits than those imposed by the Clean Air Act.Pa., Ohio leaders gather to discuss future of electric grid — Pa. State Senator Gene Yaw met with Ohio Senator Brian Chavez, Ohio Rep. Adam Holmes, and leadership from PJM Interconnection in December to discuss the rapidly evolving electricity market landscape. The meeting served as a starting point for new efforts to strengthen regional energy planning, market coordination, and grid reliability in the face of increasing demand. The three legislators serve as chairs of their respective state legislative committees on energy. They were accompanied by Pa. Sen. Dave Argall, chairman of the Majority Policy Committee; Sen. Carolyn Comitta, minority chairwoman of the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy Committee; Sen. Scott Hutchinson; Steve DeFrank, chairman of the Pa. Public Utility Commission (PUC), Jennifer French, chairwoman of the Public Utlities Commission of Ohio (PUCO), and Dennis Peters, PUCO commissioner. The delegation engaged in comprehensive dialogue with PJM officials about the future of the electric grid, long-term load forecasts, and the critical role of inter-state coordination to address rising energy demand. The visit included a detailed presentation from PJM leadership, a roundtable discussion, and a tour of the grid operator’s facility. “States like Ohio and Pennsylvania play a vital role in ensuring reliable and affordable electricity for millions of residents across the PJM footprint,” Sen. Yaw said. “This meeting was an important opportunity to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead.” “Legislators, regulators and grid managers need to engage in pragmatic conversations to ensure the continued success of our shared electric grid,” Sen. Chavez added. “We look forward to a collaborative partnership between our states.” “Ohio and Pennsylvania have been closely aligned for over 200 years, and we will face these challenges as we always have, with the same unity of effort,” concluded Rep. Holmes. PJM’s 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast projects a sharp rise in electricity demand driven by data center growth, electrification of buildings and vehicles, and manufacturing expansion. Officials reviewed capacity market pricing trends, noting a significant increase in the regional transmission organization (RTO) price from $29/MW-day in 2024/2025 to $269.92/MW-day in 2025/2026. The group examined PJM’s interconnection reforms and the acceleration of shovel-ready projects through the Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI). Additionally, the conversation addressed state-level strategies to manage affordability and reliability, including retail cost allocation, demand response programs, and the permitting processes necessary to support new infrastructure development. Ohio recently passed House Bill 15, legislation intended to encourage the development of electric generation facilities and other infrastructure such as natural gas pipelines. Pa. lawmakers have expressed interest in pursuing similar legislation. Legislation sponsored by Sen. Yaw to improve electric load forecasting was already signed into Pa. law as part of the 2025-26 state budget, along with a repeal of the the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) electricity tax. “Our states share a common grid and common goals,” Sen. Yaw added. “This meeting reinforced the importance of proactive planning and transparent communication between states and PJM. Our constituents depend on us to make informed decisions that support economic growth and energy security.”
2 OH State Republicans Float Bill to Study Pros/Cons of Data Centers - Marcellus Drilling News - Ohio State Representatives Gary Click and Kellie Deeter have introduced legislation to establish a 13-member bipartisan Ohio Data Center Study Commission. This initiative responds to the rapid expansion of approximately 200 data centers across the state, which has sparked community concerns regarding agricultural land use, noise pollution, water consumption, and energy demands. The commission aims to provide a platform for public dialogue and develop a comprehensive report to guide future development. By evaluating these impacts, lawmakers hope to encourage smart, balanced growth that potentially prioritizes brownfield redevelopment over rural green spaces while ensuring long-term resource stability.
Report: Data Centers Were 40% of PJM Capacity Costs in Last Auction - Marcellus Drilling News - Data center forecasts — beyond existing data centers — made up 45% of the $47.2 billion in capacity costs in PJM’s last three capacity auctions, according to a report by Monitoring Analytics, PJM’s so-called independent market monitor. Data center load accounted for $6.5 billion, or 40%, of the $16.4 billion in costs from the PJM Interconnection’s December capacity auction (the most recent auction). PJM’s market monitor directly and unequivocally blames new data centers for higher electricity prices, instead of putting the blame where it really belongs: On Democrat governors who have restricted new gas-fired power plants.
Hochul targets data centers over cost concerns — Gov. Kathy Hochul is moving to get ahead of a potential wave of large new data centers in New York and address concerns about their potential to drive up energy costs. Hochul announced plans to require data centers to pay more for energy — or bring their own sources. It’s an approach that’s drawn bipartisan support, including from President Donald Trump and California Democrats. “Data centers are vital for an innovative future. But they guzzle up tremendous amounts of energy and leave ratepayers footing the bill,” Hochul said during her State of the State address on Tuesday. New York hasn’t seen major new data center development yet, but there are thousands of megawatts of proposed projects — some speculative, others actively seeking local approvals — looking to connect to the state’s grid. Demand for data centers is driven by the explosion in artificial intelligence usage.
WSJ Op-Ed: Data Center Moratoriums are the New Fracking Bans - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN was among the first to tell readers that so-called environmental groups were quickly morphing from anti-fracking to anti-data center. Over the past three months, we’ve observed in various posts how opposition to data centers (from the same people who oppose fracking and shale energy) has gone from local and regional anti groups (seeMore Evidence that PA’s Anti-Frackers are Now Anti-Data Center andAntis in Ohio Join the Chorus Bashing AI Data Centers) to national groups (see 200 Enviro Groups Want Freeze on Building ALL New Data Centers). The usual bought-and-paid-for suspects in Congress have joined the cause, blaming data centers for high electricity costs and calling for the construction of all-new data centers to be blocked (seeCongressional Dems Blame AI Data Centers for High Electric Prices). An op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal echoes our observations. The title of the op-ed: “They’re Coming for Our Data Centers.”
Trump launches bid to tame electricity prices in the Northeast - President Donald Trump mounted a dramatic intervention into the nation’s largest power market Friday, aiming to quell political headaches over rising electricity prices fueled by new data centers across a clutch of swing states. The unprecedented move by the White House is an attempt to ensure one of the brightest spots in the economy — the surge in construction of data centers devoted to artificial intelligence — isn’t hamstrung by one of the biggest drags — the rising cost of energy. Market analysts, however, expressed skepticism the plan would result in lowering those costs anytime soon, given the time it will take to build new generation. It comes as polling shows voters are increasingly angry about rising costs ahead of the midterms that could threaten the narrow GOP majority in Congress. Electricity prices jumped by double digits in most parts of the country in 2025, far outpacing inflation. At a White House meeting, the administration and bipartisan group of governors from the 13-state power market that stretches from Midwest to Virginia called on the electric grid operator to hold an emergency auction for tech companies to buy power for the next 15 years. That effort is designed to motivate power companies in that market to build a fleet of new plants to serve the rapidly growing AI data centers.
Trump’s AI push breathes life into an old pollution scourge -The Trump administration’s sweeping effort to ease regulations on the coal industry could allow power companies to continue operating unlined coal ash dumps that are leaking toxins into groundwater. Under Administrator Lee Zeldin, EPA has argued that loosening coal ash regulations will ease electric grid challenges triggered by explosive growth of artificial intelligence data centers. But some people living near ash dumps are concerned that the changes could threaten their drinking water. Coal ash — the material that is left over after the fossil fuel is burned — contains heavy metals like mercury, arsenic, boron, cadmium and chromium. The ash historically has been stored in sprawling pits adjacent to power plants, often without a protective lining to prevent pollutants from spreading. This month, EPA plans to propose changes to a Biden-era rule that requires companies to monitor groundwater near old ash dumps and clean them up if they are leaking. The agency is also considering giving 11 power plants a three-year extension on a cleanup deadline for 13 unlined ash dumps, each of which spans more than 40 acres. EPA spokesperson Brigit Hirsch said the extension aimed to promote grid reliability and would apply to “a small subset of baseload coal-fired power producers.” She also accused the Biden administration of attempting to “destroy the coal industry.” “EPA will accept comments on this proposal through February 6, 2026,” Hirsch said in an emailed statement. Barbara Deardorff lives in Tefft, Indiana, a few miles from the Schahfer Generating Station’s ash dump site. Several years ago, she discovered arsenic and lead in her well water above the recommended safe levels, prompting her to relocate the well elsewhere on her property, she said. “I spent several thousand dollars drilling test wells in my yard until I found clean water, put in a well and hooked it to the house,” Deardorff said. “I realize the EPA has an enormous job to do in monitoring all these industries under all the regulations, but also, I wish they took stronger enforcement action.” Schahfer’s owner, Northern Indiana Public Service Co. or NIPSCO, has documented potentially unsafe levels of molybdenum, arsenic and lithium in groundwater at its ash dump. While the company was previously supposed to close the unlined dump by 2028, EPA in November proposed giving NIPSCO and 10 other plant owners until October 2031 to do so. NIPSCO has argued that there is nowhere that it could safely move the coal ash at Schahfer, which the Trump administration ordered to keep burning coal last month. Joshauna Nash, a spokesperson for NIPSCO parent company NiSource, said its data does not indicate that pollutants are migrating off-site, and that the dump will close by 2031, “in accordance with rules recently proposed by EPA.” “In compliance with federal and state requirements, NIPSCO has implemented a comprehensive program to protect groundwater at Schahfer Generating Station,” Nash said in an email. At least two other plants — the Naughton Power Plant in Wyoming and the Baldwin Power Plant in Illinois — that EPA proposed granting the same three-year cleanup extension have also reported contamination of groundwater at their ash dumps. In November, Naughton reported that groundwater at one of its dumps exceeded groundwater protection standards for arsenic, lithium and radium, a radioactive metal. In July, Baldwin reported exceedances of groundwater standards for fluoride and lithium. While EPA does not regulate lithium in tap water, too much fluoride is potentially linked to lower IQ in children. PacifiCorp, which owns the Naughton Power Plant, stopped burning coal on Dec. 31 and plans to convert to natural gas, said utility spokesperson David Eskelsen. It will not be taking advantage of EPA’s extension and will stop disposing of ash at the unlined dump by Sept. 30, Eskelsen said. The company maintains that groundwater pollutants at the dump came from an “alternative source.”
EPA opposes Colorado plan to close coal-fired power plants - On Jan. 9, The Environmental Protection Agency determined Colorado cannot order the closure of coal-fired power plants under the Clean Air Act, and, therefore, the agency will deny the state's plan to reduce the haze that clouds views at Rocky Mountain National Park and other federal lands. The move is part of the Trump administration's push to make sure no federal regulations stand in the way of restoring the coal industry and powering the electric grid with the fossil fuel, which pollutes the air with carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, soot and other chemicals that contribute to climate change and harm human health. Those coal emissions also help create a haze that dims visibility for people experiencing the outdoors, something that is important to Colorado's economy and state identity. Colorado is required to find ways to reduce that haze under the Clean Air Act. To do so, the state had proposed shuttering coal plants—a move that would also help meet its goal to eliminate almost all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The EPA signaled in July that it would at least partially deny Colorado's plan to reduce haze, but on Friday, it kicked the entire strategy back to the state for a rewrite. If Colorado declines to write a new plan, then the EPA could impose one on the state. Cyrus Western, administrator for EPA Region 8, which includes Colorado, said the state cannot shut down coal-fired power plants without consent from the utilities that run them, and, therefore, the mandate does not comply with the Clean Air Act. Because Colorado Springs Utilities wants to exclude its Ray D. Nixon Power Plant in Fountain from the state's closure plans, the EPA rejected Colorado's entire plan, he said. The plants are vital to supplying reliable and affordable electricity, and Colorado can still meet its requirements to reduce haze while keeping them open, Western said. "You do not have to shut these down to ensure the people in Colorado have clean air," he said. Michael Ogletree, senior director of state air quality programs at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, said in an emailed statement that the EPA's decision will negatively impact Colorado's environment and the "majestic national parks and wilderness areas the program was designed to safeguard." The state's Air Pollution Control Division will review the EPA's decision and consider its next step, he said, noting that the state had not failed to meet its regional haze requirements.
Trump admin redirects carbon capture funds to prop up old coal plants - The Energy Department is planning to prop up old and shuttered coal plants using more than half a billion dollars that Congress originally set aside to advance carbon capture technologies and improve energy resiliency and environmental protection in rural areas. It’s a move that former and current agency officials, legal experts and some lawmakers and appropriators say undermines congressional intent in the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. That statute authorized and appropriated almost $3 billion to capture heat-trapping gases from big emitters through demonstration and pilot programs. “DOE has zero authority to repurpose the funds without going through Congress,” said one career staffer, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. “DOE leadership is doing something with those CCUS funds that is obviously counter to the [bipartisan infrastructure law].” DOE’s about-face is laid out in a recent notice of funding that provides $525 million to build, restart, overhaul or retrofit coal-fired plants that are shuttered or scheduled to retire before 2032. In the notice, the agency states that the funding being offered up is unobligated money that lawmakers originally set aside under the bipartisan infrastructure law for the now-defunct Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, or OCED. Congress directed the office, which was dissolved during a recent reorganization, to use the money for carbon capture demonstration and large-scale pilot projects, and energy improvements and environmental protection in rural or remote areas. While DOE instructed applicants to “integrate carbon capture demonstration phases,” current and former department staffers say the notice is vague, doesn’t describe in detail when to incorporate CCUS, and allows applicants to move ahead with near-term “reliability upgrades” without requiring carbon capture at the outset. DOE insists it’s on solid legal footing. The department issued the funding opportunity under “its existing authorities” to support coal commissioning, recommissioning, retrofitting and modernization projects, as well as rural capacity and energy affordability coal projects, said Ben Dietderich, the agency’s press secretary and chief spokesperson, in an email. “These investments are intended to keep critical coal plants operating, strengthen grid reliability, and deliver affordable secure energy for the American people,” said Dietderich. “The [notice of funding opportunity] uses previously appropriated funding within DOE programs and is structured consistent with the Department’s statutory authorities and long-standing funding practices.” But Don Kettl, professor emeritus and former dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, said the Trump administration seems to have found a way to skate around the requirements of the law using “clever lawyering” in such a way that makes it hard for the public and Congress to grasp. DOE, he said, used language in the notice of funding that’s so vague it essentially scraps the requirement for carbon capture and shows the agency is prepared to accept even “pledges” that are virtually unenforceable given the lack of detail. DOE’s repurposing of money sets a troubling precedent that challenges the balance of power between the executive and congressional branches of government, and risks locking in decades of greenhouse gas emissions from newly built or recommissioned coal plants, said Danielle Lemmon, a climate and energy consultant and former DOE employee. Congress set aside the money in the bipartisan infrastructure law to support clean energy, not to prop up coal, said Lemmon, who worked at OCED on portfolio analysis tools used to inform federal funding decisions before leaving in the department in 2024. DOE, she said, is invoking Trump’s executive order declaring a “national energy emergency” to justify phasing the funding in a way that defers meaningful carbon capture requirements, and creates a loophole to spend CCUS-authorized funds without a clear obligation to actually deploy carbon capture. “While CCUS is technically required in applications, the notice rarely mentions CCUS, and never mentions the words ‘carbon capture’ in its technical review criteria — the rubric DOE uses to evaluate and select projects,” Lemmon said. The notice doesn’t say how developed the carbon capture technology needs to be or what CCUS-related ‘demonstration outcomes’ a project is supposed to prove, she said. For example, it does not say whether a project should lower the cost of capturing carbon, said Lemmon. And federal grant recipients, she said, are not obligated to continue into later phases of the award and can structure projects so the carbon capture phase comes at the very end — then opt out before reaching it, with no penalty.
More Spaghetti on the Wall: Climate Activists Push Insurance Bills That Hike Costs for Consumers --Energy in Depth –Blue-states already battling an energy affordability crisis appear dead-set on exacerbating the issue. State legislators in California, New York, and Hawaii are mounting new efforts to sue energy companies for rising home insurance premiums, making the spurious argument that companies’ lawful production of energy is to blame. On the campaign trail, Democratic politicians are touting policies to address affordability concerns. But, according to E&E News reporting this week, the only answer they seem to have for “lowering costs” is to bring more lawsuits scapegoating America’s energy industry. In New York, a new bill (SB 8585) seeks to expand climate liability by allowing the state’s attorney general to file lawsuits against energy companies on behalf of residents whose home insurance premiums have gone up. Hawaii has already introduced a similar bill and legislators in California are reportedly drafting their own version too. The cost of these bills would be devastating to many homeowners that are already facing an affordability crisis.Legislators in these states – which already rank among the top 10 least affordable states in the country according to U.S. News and World Report – have proven they would rather drive up energy prices with misguided efforts such as climate litigation and mandated electrification instead of taking real steps to address rising costs. Each New York household would have spent another $2,500 on energy if SB 8585 had been in effect between 2020 and 2024, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.While these efforts to sue over rising insurance premiums might be new, the playbook, the actors, and their goals are not. For example, the Center for Climate Integrity has been a primary driver of similarly impractical insurance legislation. The same groups, backed by the Rockefellers and foreign billionaires, are trying to impose liability on American energy companies that power our economy by any means possible. Instead of addressing real affordability concerns, these legislative efforts are part of a coordinated campaign that seeks to eradicate oil and natural gas companies through litigation, while consumers are left paying the costs.
Ohio's Shale Energy Industry Attracts $3.5B in Direct Investment in Second Half 2025
Save Ohio Parks warns against expanding frack leases under public lands - Environmental advocates and Ohioans converged in Columbus on Monday to call out the environmental havoc that extending lease terms to frack Ohio’s state parks and public lands will cause Ohio’s air, water, soils, biodiversity—and future generations. Save Ohio Parks, Freshwater Accountability Project, Buckeye Environmental Network, and Third Act Ohio were among environmental groups speaking to Oil and Gas Land Management Commissioners directly for the first time allowed them in three years about the myriad of dangers that await the state as it expands natural gas fracking under Ohio’s state parks and public lands. They had a lot to say. Topics included:
- The undemocratic legislative process used to pass the state law that mandates fracking Ohio public lands;
- Potential drinking water contamination in Washington County, Ohio, where injection wells storing toxic, radioactive gas and oil wastes are communicating with conventional oil wells, threatening rural drinking water wells and groundwater;
- Fracking and injection well-caused earthquakes;
- Destruction of biodiversity and habitat from fracking that could cause the extinctions of endangered Indiana bats, eastern hellbenders and eastern black bears;
- Methane gas emissions from natural gas production and utility use that cause rare cancers in young children, increase respiratory disease and accelerate climate warming and climate change.
Speakers peppered their testimony with personal stories, research, statistics and emotions ranging from anger to appeals to love the planet and future generations of young people. But expressionless members of the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commissioners asked no questions and unanimously voted 4-0 to award Grenadier Energy III LLC of The Woodlands, Texas rights to frack 171 acres of Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County. Commissioners accepted $6,000 per acre, or $1 M, plus a 12.5 percent royalty and 5.5 percent of production as an additional financial incentive. Commissioners also rubberstamped nominations 4-0 in repeated votes to advance bidding next quarter on more than 4,726 acres to frack Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County and 1,842 acres in Jockey Hollow Wildlife Area in Belmont and Harrison counties. They also advanced to bid in the next quarter eight acres across the street from the Noble County Correctional Institution in Noble County and 11 rights-of-way along state highways. The wildlife areas targeted are popular hunting, fishing, hiking and birding areas re-claimed by conservation groups from coal mining over the past 30 or more years. In a move many environmentalists and the public consider a sell-out to the gas and oil industry, the Ohio state legislature and Gov. Mike DeWine made the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) dependent on fracking for half of its state parks budget beginning in 2027. Save Ohio Parks organized a 30-member coalition in early 2025 calling for Gov. Mike DeWine to declare a statewide moratorium on fracking Ohio’s state parks and public lands. DeWine has refused to meet with them or discuss the issue despite more than 7,000 public comments uploaded to the OGLMC website against fracking public lands. Typically, 98 percent of comments uploaded onto the OGLMC website oppose fracking Ohio public lands. Save Ohio Parks was formed in 2023, after 135 pages of last-minute amendments were tacked onto H.B. 507, a bill originally created to limit the number of poultry chicks allowed in a shipment. The bill passed into law during a lame duck session. It falsely defined polluting fracked gas (ie: natural gas) a “green energy” and mandated fracking under state parks and public lands. It was one of the first bills DeWine signed into law after his re-election as governor. DeWine’s campaign was aided by a $500,000 FirstEnergy donation to State Solutions, a dark-money group connected to the Republican Governors Association. Leatra Harper, director of Freshwater Accountability Project and an advocate for fresh water since 2012, said the magnitude of environmental and public health damage from fracking is already evident and will likely only get worse as the negative impacts of fracking increase. “The state of Ohio’s lack of adequate regulation and oversight has never addressed the cumulative contamination impacts of this industry, which are compounded by the negative impacts of methane emissions warming the atmosphere and accelerating climate change; toxic, radioactive brine-spreading on roads; and gas and oil well pad explosions,” she said. “We who follow the science know that pollution from fracking is definitely affecting the health of our children and grandchildren here in Ohio,” said Judy Smucker of Third Act Ohio. “Especially here in Ohio, where we are now known as the dumping ground of America– the dumping ground for other states to come and add their fracking forever- chemicals into Ohio injection wells.” Melinda Zemper of Save Ohio Parks said she received what she considers inadvertent advice from ODNR director Mary Mertz last summer following a roundtable discussion Mertz participated in at an environmental education conference for children. “Ms. Mertz told me that if we wanted change regarding fracking our state parks and public lands, we needed to change the state legislature,” said Zemper. “I think she’s right. We need legislators in power in all offices, from local township officials to city council members, to county commissioners, state reps and senators on up to the governor’s office who commit to protecting clean air, water, soils, and biodiversity throughout the state, as well as in and under our public lands. “We are at the very beginning of an existential global climate crisis and must use all technology and renewable energy solutions available to reduce carbon emissions and enjoy cleaner water, decent air and healthy soils. Ohioans need pristine nature in our state parks and wildlife areas, and to be convinced to want to remain living in Ohio. “The science is clear, no matter what supermajority politicians may say: fossil fuels and fracking need to be phased out quickly and cheap, reliable, renewable energy ramped up quickly in order to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.” No other state in the country allows fracking of its state parks, said Cathy Cowan Becker, board president at Save Ohio Parks. “Our parks and wildlife areas were set aside for the use and enjoyment of all Ohioans. These lands are meant to be protected. Fracking them is a betrayal of the public trust and future generations.”
Ohio OGLMC Awards Contract to Drill Under Leesville Wildlife Area - Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met in a public forum in Columbus and voted to open another 6,570 acres of state-owned wildlife land (in Belmont and Harrison counties) to allow bids to frack under (not on top of) those areas. The Commission also awarded a contract to Grenadier Energy to drill under another wildlife area in Carroll County, 172 acres of the Leesville Wildlife Area. The state is getting an amazing $6,000 signing bonus, equaling $1.03 million, plus big royalties!
Why are we fracking Ohio's only national forest? - Randi Pokladnik - The acreages that make up the Wayne National Forest in Southeastern Ohio are a patchwork of land parcels which lie in 12 Ohio counties. In the 1800s, the region was heavily logged to supply wood for 46 charcoal furnaces used for iron smelting. Farming also damaged the landscape as the remaining areas were cleared for agriculture, causing destructive soil erosion.Nature, time, and help from the Civilian Conservation Corps in the 1930s helped restore the second-growth forests we see today.Sadly, the oil and gas industry is seeking to frack parcels within the wooded areas, possibly destroying the vibrant mesophytic ecosystem that has evolved over the last nearly 100 years. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) will be accepting oil and gas leasing applications in September 2026 for 41 oil and gas parcels, totaling 2,795 acres. These parcels of the Wayne are located in Monroe and Washington Counties. More than 85% of Ohio forests are privately owned, making the Wayne National Forest very important for Ohio residents and non-residents.This forest remains a sanctuary for people who need an escape from their hectic lives. Visitors find peaceful settings, as well as spaces for recreating, bird watching, and fishing in the natural environment provided by the Wayne.There are hundreds of miles of hiking trails, horse riding trails, mountain biking trails, and off-road vehicle trails. Over a quarter million visitors find their way to the Wayne every year. The Little Muskingum River flows through the middle of the Marietta Unit of the forest. It “has an exceptional warmwater quality designation” and species like the rare river otter and the state endangered Ohio lamprey make their homes in the river. Additionally, the Wayne is critical habitat for the eastern hellbender salamander, a species which has been proposed for listing as an endangered species. When speaking of fracking in Ohio’s State Parks in 2024, then-state Rep. Don Jones said, “You will never know where fracking has occurred”. I strongly disagree.I live in Harrison County, one of the most fracked areas of Southeastern Ohio.Well pads and fracking infrastructure have taken over the rural landscape.Examining areas around the towns of Scio, Cadiz, and Jewett via a satellite image with Google Maps reveals over 179 well pads in the county. These appear like small white squares on the Google landscape map, but if you zoom in on these pads, you will see some of the infrastructure associated with fracking; large storage containers, wells, compressors, roads, and often the outline of pipelines crossing through the areas. These well pads are not reclaimed because many times wells are often re-fracked.What was once a region of rural beauty has become an industrial zone, as fracking eats away at the wooded hills like metastatic cancer. Fracking significantly impacts forests, as land is altered for well pads, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. Research shows that up to 19 acres per well pad is needed for gathering lines. In addition to gathering pipelines, there are transition pipelines, and distribution pipelines, as well as roads to the well pads. The construction of this infrastructure results in clearcutting of the forested area, which leaves gaps in the forest canopy. Think of it as death by a thousand cuts. The Halliburton loophole legislation of 2005 exempted natural gas drilling from most federal regulations created to protect human health and the environment.Companies are exempt from disclosing the chemicals used during hydraulic fracturing but an EPA assessment reported there were at least 1,606 chemicals used in fracking that could impact drinking water. Leaks, spills, and runoff from operations threaten groundwater and surface water quality, impacting aquatic ecosystems. Billions of gallons of radioactive waste brine are generated by the industry.This brine, although toxic in nature, is exempt from the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.Every day “brine” tankers travel through fracked communities to deliver the toxic brew to Class II injection wells.Fracking the Wayne, especially in the Washington County region, could mean more Class II wells for an area already dealing with well contamination issues from brine infiltration into production wells. The process of high-pressure hydraulic fracking requires 1.5-16 million gallons of water per well.In Ohio, a facility is allowed to withdraw surface water in the amount of “up to two million gallons per day in any thirty-day period without first obtaining a permit from the chief of the division of water resources under section 1521.29 of the Revised Code.” Ohio saw record droughts in the summers of 2024 and 2025. Counties where fracking is ongoing experienced extreme and exceptional droughts in 2024. Withdrawing water from streams decreases volume, increases pollution concentrations, increases water temperatures, decreases dissolved oxygen, and affects the pH, making streams less habitable for aquatic organisms.Surface water will no doubt be withdrawn from the local streams in the Wayne National Forest. Fracking creates air pollution that can seriously impact wildlife.A Colorado study revealed that exposure to air pollution from fracking could cause neurological problems, respiratory diseases, and cancer in wild animals.Some of the compounds released during fracking include benzene, a known carcinogen, as well as xylenes and nitrogen oxides.Studies show these compounds can cause cancers, particularly if exposure occurs within a 0.5-mile radius of a well pad. There are additional issues that will impact the rural area that makes up the Wayne National Forests.The hydraulic fracturing process requires 2,300 to 4,000 truck trips per well. Many of the roads in rural areas are not built to withstand the amount and weight of these trucks and additional traffic has resulted in an increase in vehicular accidents.Anthropogenic noise from fracking reduces habitat quality and interferes with communication for species that rely on acoustic communication.The bright lights on the drilling rigs and pads can significantly impact birds, especially during migration.A 2020 study shows “shale oil and gas production reduces subsequent bird population counts by 15%, even after adjusting for location and year fixed effects, weather, counting effort, and anthropic land-use changes.” Ohio’s Republican legislature and Gov. Mike DeWine sacrificed our state parks to fracking during a lame duck session in 2022.Without any public comment period, our parks were opened up for fracking. Now our only national forest and the rural communities surrounding it will become a new sacrificial zone.The BLM says on its page, “The preliminary parcel list is not subject to protests or appeals.”At the very least, we need to let our concerns be known to the Bureau of Land Management. Allowing our natural resources in Southeast Ohio to be exploited to supply power for data centers or to be exported out of the country is not ecologically or economically sustainable for our region.
Ohio Judge Adds $28M in Fines Against Austin Master Services - Marcellus Drilling News - One of the significant stories of 2024 in the Ohio Utica was about Austin Master Services (AMS), a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry, Ohio, that processes and transports fracking waste for disposal. AMS ran into trouble when it ran out of money. The Martins Ferry facility in Belmont County, where waste is temporarily stored, had vastly exceeded its permitted limit of 600 tons (storing over 10,000 tons), resulting in a permit violation. The Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a lawsuit against the company in March 2024 to compel compliance and require the company to clean up the facility. After the company didn’t perform, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) stepped in to handle the cleanup (seeAustin Master Services Ohio Frack Waste Cleanup Complete Today). The AG’s office sued for $6 million to cover the cost of cleanup, and last November, a Belmont County court ruled in favor of the state (see Ohio Judge Rules Against Austin Master Services for $6.2 Million). The judge has just issued a second ruling imposing a $ 10,000-per-day fine for the time the facility was out of compliance. It adds up to another $28+ million.
EOG's "Profound Shift" in Identity from Oil to Premier Gas Producer - Marcellus Drilling News -Last year, Houston-based EOG Resources acquired Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6 billion, establishing the Utica Shale as a “third foundational play” alongside its Permian and Eagle Ford assets (see EOG Closes on $5.6B Purchase of Encino Assets in Ohio Utica). As the energy sector navigates a complex landscape of fluctuating oil prices and surging electricity demand, EOG Resources has officially entered 2026 with a strategy that signals a profound shift in its corporate identity. Using the Utica (and Eagle Ford), EOG is now positioning itself as a premier natural gas powerhouse.
The Gas Inflection: EOG Resources Pivots Toward AI and LNG as 2026 Strategy Takes Shape - As the energy sector navigates a complex landscape of fluctuating oil prices and surging electricity demand, EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) has officially entered 2026 with a strategy that signals a profound shift in its corporate identity. Long considered the "Apple of Oil" for its technical prowess and focus on high-return crude plays, the company is now positioning itself as a premier natural gas powerhouse. By prioritizing capital discipline and high-margin gas assets like the Dorado and Utica plays, EOG aims to capture the dual tailwinds of the global LNG export boom and the domestic power hunger driven by artificial intelligence and data centers.The transition comes at a critical juncture for the company. While EOG’s stock has faced headwinds in late 2025—trading near 52-week lows in the $102–$107 range—management remains steadfast in its refusal to chase production volume. Instead, the 2026 outlook is defined by a rigorous $6.5 billion capital expenditure plan and a commitment to return at least 70% of free cash flow to shareholders. This "returns-first" approach is designed to weather short-term market volatility while setting the stage for a massive demand uptick as major export and power projects come online later this year.EOG’s 2026 roadmap is the culmination of a multi-year effort to build a "gas company within a company." The timeline of this transformation reached a fever pitch in 2025, which CEO Ezra Yacob described as the "inflection year" for the company’s gas business. This strategy was anchored by two major moves: the aggressive development of the Dorado dry-gas play in South Texas and the $5.6 billion acquisition of Encino Energy’s Utica Shale assets in Ohio. These regional "islands" were chosen specifically for their proximity to high-demand hubs—the Gulf Coast for LNG and the Eastern U.S. for power generation. As of January 9, 2026, the market is closely watching the commencement of EOG’s supply agreement with Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) for the Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. Expected to begin in late 2026, this deal will see EOG supply up to 720,000 MMBtu/d of natural gas, with pricing linked to the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM). This move effectively decouples a significant portion of EOG’s revenue from the volatile domestic Henry Hub price, allowing the company to capture international margins. Initial industry reactions have been mixed; while analysts praise the move toward global pricing, some investors remain cautious about the "low-to-flat" oil production guidance for the year, which prioritizes financial health over raw growth.The primary winner in this strategic shift is undoubtedly EOG itself, provided it can execute its "direct-to-customer" vision. By controlling its own infrastructure, such as the 1 Bcf/d Verde Pipeline, EOG can bypass midstream bottlenecks that plague smaller operators. Furthermore, Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) stands to benefit from a reliable, low-cost supply of gas from EOG’s Dorado play, ensuring the operational success of its Stage 3 expansion. Tech giants and hyperscale data center operators may also emerge as winners, as EOG’s "standalone" gas assets offer a level of reliability and dedicated supply that "associated gas" (gas produced as a byproduct of oil) simply cannot match.On the other side of the ledger, traditional oil-focused peers like Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) may face pressure to justify their capital allocation strategies if EOG’s gas pivot begins to yield higher-margin returns. Companies heavily reliant on domestic Henry Hub pricing may also find themselves at a disadvantage compared to EOG’s diversified international exposure. However, the broader industry faces a collective challenge: the slow pace of regulatory approvals for new pipelines and power plants. If infrastructure development fails to keep pace with EOG’s production capabilities, the company could find itself with an abundance of "stranded" gas, potentially depressing local prices and hurting short-term earnings.EOG’s strategy is a direct response to two of the most significant trends in the modern economy: the electrification of everything and the globalization of natural gas. The rise of AI and hyperscale data centers has created a "reliability premium" for energy. Unlike renewable sources, which are intermittent, natural gas provides the 24/7 baseload power required by the massive server farms currently being built in "Data Center Alley" and the Midwest. By positioning its Utica assets near these hubs, EOG is betting that tech companies will pay a premium for a dedicated, "behind-the-meter" fuel source.This shift mirrors broader industry trends seen by giants like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), which has also increased its focus on LNG and global gas markets. Historically, natural gas was treated as a secondary commodity in the U.S., often flared or sold at a loss to get to the more valuable oil. EOG’s 2026 outlook represents a definitive break from this past, treating gas as a high-value, strategic asset. This "multi-basin" approach—balancing oil for cash flow and gas for growth—is likely to become the blueprint for the modern E&P company in an era of decarbonization and digital expansion.In the short term, investors should expect EOG to focus on "cost efficiencies" and the full integration of its Utica acreage. The company has already signaled a move toward a "full-time" rig program at Dorado, which is expected to drive down well costs by 15% or more through economies of scale. The real test will come in the second half of 2026, as the Cheniere Stage 3 project nears completion. Any delays in this infrastructure would be a significant setback for EOG’s international pricing strategy.Longer term, the potential for direct contracts with "hyperscalers"—the Googles and Microsofts of the world—could re-rate EOG’s stock. If the company can secure long-term, high-value contracts to supply gas directly to private power plants serving data centers, it would transform EOG from a commodity price-taker into a critical infrastructure partner for the tech industry. However, the company must navigate a complex regulatory environment and potential political shifts that could impact LNG export permits or domestic pipeline construction.
21 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 5 – 11 - Marcellus Drilling News - A return to normalcy last week for permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica. Two weeks ago, we reported that just one new permit was issued (see M-U Issues Just One New Permit Last Week, Dec 29 – Jan 4). As promised, we double-checked to be sure there wasn’t a lag in posting permits by the various environmental agencies. There were no new permits (except the one) for two weeks ago. As for last week, Jan. 5 – 11, Pennsylvania issued 12 new permits, Ohio issued 2, and West Virginia issued 7. Among the drillers receiving new permits last week: Antero, Ascent, CNX, EQT, HG Energy, Repsol, and Seneca Resources. ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | CNX RESOURCES | QT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HARRISON COUNTY | HG ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | LEWIS COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | REPSOL | SENECA RESOURCES | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY
Expand Energy CEO: Drillers Won’t Add New Production at $3.50 Gas- Marcellus Drilling News - Expand Energy CEO Nick Dell’Osso was recently interviewed at the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference held in Miami, Florida, on Jan. 6. During the talk, Dell’Osso outlined Expand’s strategy following the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, emphasizing that even if natural gas prices reached the $3.50/MMBtu range, the company would remain disciplined and likely prioritize shareholder returns (such as dividends and buybacks) over aggressive production growth. With respect to the price of gas, he said this of producers in general: “But if we continue to have pricing that hangs around $3.50, I just don’t think you have a producer that is motivated for growth. I think the marginal breakeven for growth in this country is above $3.50.”
Current Pipeline Restrictions & Flow Orders Affecting the M-U Region- Marcellus Drilling News - As we’ve often noted, the NYMEX futures price and spot (physically traded) prices often move in tandem. It’s not a direct, one-to-one relationship, but when futures prices fall, spot prices tend to fall too. Most often, the reason is the weather. However, other factors can influence regional spot prices. In the Marcellus/Utica region, pipeline constraints sometimes contribute to lower prices. If we can’t get our molecules to other markets, they pile up, and the price goes down. There seems to be some of that at play right now
When It Comes To C3, Think in Thirds - When it comes to understanding propane markets, you can think about it in thirds. It just so happens that about one-third of total hydrocarbon liquids (crude + natural gas liquids) produced in the U.S. are NGLs. About one-third of those NGLs (ethane, propane, butanes and pentanes+) are propane. Around one-third of that propane is consumed domestically while the rest is exported (green area in pie chart below). Of the one-third of propane that's consumed domestically, one-third of that is used as a petrochemical feedstock to make olefins (light blue and light purple slices in the pie chart below) and a little less than one-third of that petchem demand is from propane dehydrogenation facilities (PDH; pink slice), which convert propane to propylene. This wasn’t even one-third of what was covered in today’s Propane Master Class hosted by Rusty and David Braziel. Did you miss it? Not to worry, we will make an encore version available later this week. Click here for more information.
Talen Energy to Acquire PJM Gas-Fired Power Plants for $3.45 Billion Talen Energy has agreed to acquire 2.6 GW of gas-fired generation in the PJM market for $3.45 billion, expanding its Ohio and Indiana footprint and positioning the company for growing data center power demand. (P&GJ) — Talen Energy Corporation has signed definitive agreements to acquire approximately 2.6 GW of natural gas–fired generation capacity in the PJM market for $3.45 billion, expanding its footprint in Ohio and Indiana. The deal includes the Waterford Energy Center and Darby Generating Station in Ohio, along with the Lawrenceburg Power Plant in Indiana, acquired from Energy Capital Partners. Talen said the acquisition significantly strengthens its presence in western PJM and adds efficient baseload capacity to its fleet. The purchase price consists of about $2.55 billion in cash and roughly $900 million in Talen stock, valuing the transaction at an estimated 6.6x 2027E adjusted EBITDA. The company expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to adjusted free cash flow per share by more than 15% annually through 2030. “This acquisition further diversifies Talen’s generation portfolio by adding both baseload capacity and strong cash flow contribution and enhances our presence in the western PJM market, which has significant data center tailwinds,” said Mac McFarland, Talen chief executive officer. “The transaction is immediately cash flow accretive and maintains our balance sheet discipline. Following on the heels of our acquisition of Freedom and Guernsey in 2025, it is another great example of our ‘Talen flywheel’ strategy.” The Lawrenceburg (1,218 MW) and Waterford (869 MW) plants are combined-cycle gas turbines with average heat rates of about 7,000 Btu/kWh and capacity factors exceeding 80%. Darby, a 480-MW facility, operates as a peaking unit, providing additional operational flexibility. All three plants have access to Marcellus and Utica shale gas supplies. “When this transaction is complete, Talen will have approximately doubled its expected annual generation output inside of two years, meaningfully diversified our fleet, and materially increased our free cash flow per share,” said Terry Nutt, Talen president. “We are also excited to welcome ECP as a significant Talen shareholder.” ECP will receive approximately $900 million of the purchase price in Talen equity, becoming a significant shareholder after closing. “ECP invested in this portfolio to serve rapid load growth in the Ohio region with efficient, baseload natural gas assets; we continue to believe this is PJM's most exciting narrative,” said Andrew Gilbert, ECP partner. “Talen has demonstrated that its platform of scale is uniquely positioned to serve PJM’s large customers and, with this transaction, will only be better positioned to do so.” Talen expects to fund the cash portion of the acquisition with new debt and said strong pro forma cash flows should support rapid deleveraging, targeting net leverage of 3.5x or lower by the end of 2026. The transaction is expected to close in early second-half 2026, subject to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission and review under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act.
Gulfport Energy Insider Sells $881K as Stock Trails S&P 500 This Past Year -- This natural gas and oil producer, active in Ohio and Oklahoma, reported a significant insider sale in its latest SEC filing. Lester Zitkus, a senior vice president at Gulfport Energy Corporation, directly sold 4,745 shares in multiple open-market transactions on Jan. 7 for a total consideration of approximately $881,087.70, as disclosed in a recent SEC Form 4 filing. The transaction disposed of 37.76% of Zitkus's directly held shares, a material reduction in ownership compared to his previous post-transaction balances.No indirect holdings or derivative securities were involved; all shares were sold from Zitkus's direct account, with no activity via trusts or options. This sale of 4,745 shares exceeds the recent-period median sell size of 3,329 shares, indicating a slightly larger than typical disposition. Post-transaction, Zitkus holds 7,821 shares directly, valued at approximately $1.45 million as of the Jan. 7 market close. Gulfport Energy Corporation produces and markets natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids, with principal operations in the Utica Shale (Ohio) and SCOOP (Oklahoma) regions.The firm generates revenue through the exploration, development, and sale of hydrocarbons from owned and operated reserves.Gulfport Energy Corporation is a U.S.-based independent exploration and production company focused on natural gas and liquids-rich resource plays. With a significant acreage position in the Utica Shale and SCOOP, the company leverages technical expertise to maximize recovery and operational efficiency. While the percentage involved here might sound large, the absolute dollar value remains modest relative to executive compensation more generally, and though the sale is slightly above his recent median transaction size, it's not out of character based on Zitkus' selling history over time. It's also important to note that, operationally, Gulfport’s latest quarterly report shows a business still generating meaningful cash. Third-quarter net income totaled $111.4 million, with $213.1 million in adjusted EBITDA and more than $100 million in adjusted free cash flow. Management also reiterated plans to repurchase roughly $325 million of equity throughout last year while maintaining leverage at or below one times.
Rumor Mill Lights Up: Coterra Considers Merger with Devon Energy - Marcellus Drilling News - The rumor mill is in overdrive today with news that Coterra Energy is in serious talks with Devon Energy exploring a potential merger “that would be among the biggest oil and gas deals in years.” While the primary driver of this deal is gaining massive scale in the Permian Basin, Coterra’s substantial Marcellus Shale assets in northeastern Pennsylvania (NEPA) are a major point of speculation for analysts and investors. It appears possible (likely?) that a combined company would sell off the PA Marcellus assets.
Leetonia neighborhood evacuated after crew strikes natural gas line - A contractor crew near the intersection of Lisbon and Somer streets in Leetonia has struck a gas line, and homes were being evacuated. The crew hit a running fiber optic line with a mole machine. "There was definitely concern of it blowing up," Jason Hephner, Leetonia assistant fire chief said. "It was extremely dangerous, we had a large volume of gas filling the area, filling homes, so it was you know, very volatile," he said. For several hours firemen were on scene working with Columbia gas, finally sealing the leak just before 8p.m. "It was backing up into the sewer system and we did have a few houses that we detected gas in the basement so we did evacuate this street just as precaution," Hephner said. Hephner adds, they were working on getting all 32 homes checked on Somer street before restoring the power. At about 9:40 Wednesday night, firefighters were letting residents back into their homes. Leetonia Fire and EMS also sent an "urgent message" in a Facebook post asking residents of street addresses 349, 345, 343, 337, 342, 346, 350, 351, 358, 362, 366, 370 and 374 to return home so the departments are able to check that their natural gas levels are at zero. Leetonia Police Dispatch told 21 News that homes within a 500-foot radius of the gas leak were being evacuated. Firefighters posted on their Facebook page asking Leetonia residents to stay indoors and not to smoke in homes near Lisbon and Somer streets.
Law Firm for Ascent Resources Bd. Accused of Conflict of Interest - Marcellus Drilling News - The bidding war for Ascent Resources continues and gets more complex. Law firm Kirkland & Ellis has been drawn into a dispute between Ascent Resources investors and the private equity firm Energy & Minerals Group (EMG). Mason Capital Management is questioning Kirkland & Ellis’s role representing the Ascent board while also advising EMG in its legal fight with the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. The dispute concerns EMG’s plan to put Ascent into a “continuation vehicle,” which Mason Capital and other investors have opposed. Other companies have since jumped in to make bids to take over Ascent.
Kirkland & Ellis Accused of Conflict in Private Equity Spat - Law firm Kirkland & Ellis has been drawn into a dispute between investors of Ascent Resources and the private equity firm that’s seeking to raise a continuation fund to prolong its hold on the natural gas producer.Mason Capital Management questioned the law firm’s role representing the Ascent board while also advising the private equity firm, Energy & Minerals Group, in its legal fight with another Ascent investor, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg.Last month, the Mideast sovereign wealth fund sued to stop EMG from shunting Ascent into a continuation vehicle amid disagreements over the valuation of the portfolio company and the process surrounding the proposed fund. The two sides agreed to pursue arbitration, and the continuation fund can’t close until that’s resolved. Ascent, based in Oklahoma City, operates in Ohio’s Utica shale basin and is that state’s largest natural gas producer, according to the company’s website. “Managers may not reasonably rely on conflicted advisers whose interests are aligned with a controller pursuing a challenged transaction,” Mason wrote in the letter dated Monday and addressed to Ascent’s board, which is led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Fisher. Five of the 12 board members are EMG executives. Ascent and Kirkland & Ellis didn’t reply to messages seeking comment. Mason declined to comment. Kirkland & Ellis topped the deals and private equity league tables last year, according to its website. The firm serves more than 800 private equity firms, advising on a variety of matters, including fund formation, fundraising, buyouts, take-privates, recapitalizations and deal exits. The dispute over the sale concerns an increasingly popular, sometimes controversial asset-shuffling technique that allows managers to extend their bets on long-held companies. The strategy gained traction amid a tough environment for asset sales, though some critics have said it poses conflicts when private equity firms are on both sides of the transaction.In the case of Ascent, the board “stifled a fair and open process” to evaluate options such as an initial public offering or strategic sale of the company, New York-based Mason said last month in a Delaware Chancery Court filing. At the time, Mason asked the board to form a special committee and retain an independent financial adviser to evaluate alternatives and disclose valuation materials. But the board — through Kirkland & Ellis — refused, asserting it had no obligation to take action. “The board taking advice as to its own conflicts, collectively and individually, from legal counsel which it knows, or reasonably should know, has a direct conflict is wrongful on its face,” Mason wrote in Monday’s letter. Even as EMG and ADIC pursue arbitration, other Ascent investors have come forward with offers to buy the company. Mason put forth its own proposal to deliver a fully financed, all-cash approval to acquire Ascent at a “price superior to that contemplated by the EMG transactions” and to make the payment upfront rather than over multiple years, according to a separate letter viewed by Bloomberg. Kimmeridge Energy Management had also submitted a $6 billion proposal for Ascent, according to Monday’s letter.“Neither bidder has received any response from the board,” Mason wrote, adding that it also asked for “immediate corrective action, including withdrawal of conflicted counsel.
Cleanup Stalled: Frack Wastewater Lingers at 3 Eureka Plants in PA - Marcellus Drilling News - On August 17, Eureka Resources’ Williamsport Second Street facility (one of the three wastewater treatment plants previously operated by Eureka) leaked some of its stored untreated frack wastewater, which ended up in the nearby Susquehanna River via a storm drain (see ‘Black Goop’ Spills into Susquehanna River from Closed Eureka Plant). That event led the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to launch an investigation into all three of Eureka’s shuttered plants: two in Williamsport (Lycoming County) and one in Bradford County. The DEP found untreated wastewater stored at each facility—over 4.6 million gallons in total—and demanded Eureka dispose of it within 90 days. In September, Eureka outlined a plan to do just that (see Eureka Proposes Plan to Clean Up, Close All 3 PA Wastewater Plants). The 90-day period has expired. The DEP reinspected and found that some progress has made, but wastewater is still stored at each site.
Denver natural gas producer raising money for $3.9 billion deal - --One of the United States’ largest natural gas suppliers makes moves to fund a deal meant to focus the company on West Virginia production. Antero Resources of Denver said it's buying 55,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale gas field production area in West Virginia for $450 million.
Antero Midstream announces launch of $500M offering of senior notes - Antero Midstream (AM) on Tuesday said it intends to offer $500 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2034 in a private placement to eligible purchasers. Antero Midstream intends to use the net proceeds from the offering, together with borrowings under Antero Midstream Partners revolving credit facility and the net proceeds from the disposition of all of Antero Midstream's Utica Shale midstream assets to fund the acquisition of HG Energy II Midstream Holdings from HG Energy II, and related fees and expenses.
Vickery Energy acquires Marcellus gas assets from Tribune Resources - Vickery Energy Partners has closed the acquisition of natural gas assets in the Appalachian basin from Tribune Resources, adding approximately 38,000 net acres and more than 200 MMcfe/d of net production across Wetzel, Tyler, Harrison and Doddridge counties in West Virginia. The assets include development inventory in both the wet and dry windows of the Marcellus Shale, providing Vickery with an established production base and multi-year drilling runway. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Vickery is led by former Tug Hill executives, including President and CEO Sean Willis and CFO Daniel Rowe, and is backed by Quantum Capital Group. Quantum previously sold Tug Hill Operating and XcL Midstream’s Appalachian assets to EQT in a $5-billion transaction in 2023. The transaction further consolidates private-equity-backed positions in the Appalachian gas sector as operators position for long-term demand growth and improved basin economics.
Vickery closes acquisition of Appalachia player Tribune --Vickery Energy Partners, which is a portfolio company of Quantum Capital Group, announced last week that it had closed its acquisition of Tribune Resources. According to the January 8 announcement, the transaction includes assets located primarily in West Virginia’s Wetzel, Tyler, Harrison and Doddridge counties. The assets span roughly 38,000 net acres (154 square km) and have net production of more than 200mn cubic feet (5.7mn cubic metres) per day of gas equivalent. Hart Energy cited a source familiar with the matter as saying that the purchase price Vickery paid for Tribune was around $400mn. The outlet added that analysts had estimated the transaction value had fallen to $350-500mn. Vickery’s president and CEO, Sean Willis, described the acquired assets as “high quality”, with development inventory in both the wet and dry windows of the Marcellus shale. “This transaction provides Vickery with a significant production base and multiple years of development runway, allowing us to apply our expertise and demonstrated execution capabilities to grow production, build a business of scale, and create value for our investors,” Willis added. Willis is a former executive of Tug Hill. Quantum sold Tug Hill Operating and XcL Midstream’s portfolio of upstream and midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin to EQT for around $5.0bn in 2023. The transaction comes amid rising demand for natural gas, including in Appalachia. A month earlier, Antero Resources announced that it was buying the upstream assets of HG Energy II in the Marcellus shale for $2.8bn while simultaneously agreeing to sell its Utica shale assets in Ohio for around $800mn. Energy data and services provider TGS commented at the time that this capped off a busy year for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the Marcellus, citing operators building inventory to meet rising demand from AI data centres. The company noted that according to its TGS Well Data Analytics service, the Marcellus was in a “prime position” to meet growing gas demand. Permits in the play had risen by 26% over the past year, TGS said, which it added was coupled with an increase of 3% in productivity per foot of lateral length.
Enbridge Begins Construction on 122-Mile Ridgeline Expansion - Enbridge has started construction on its 122-mile Ridgeline Expansion Project in Tennessee, expanding its East Tennessee Natural Gas system to supply TVA’s Kingston Fossil Plant replacement. (P&GJ) — Enbridge Inc. has begun construction on its Ridgeline Expansion Project, a 122-mile natural gas pipeline expansion of the company’s East Tennessee Natural Gas (ETNG) system designed to serve the Tennessee Valley Authority’s (TVA) planned natural gas replacement of the Kingston Fossil Plant, according to an Oct. 20 update on the project.According to Enbridge, Ridgeline has received all necessary regulatory certificates and permits, including a FERC Notice to Proceed earlier this month. Construction is scheduled to continue through 2026, with in-service targeted for November 2026 and full restoration expected by spring 2027.The project involves installing 122 miles of 30-inch looping pipeline and one electric-powered compressor station. Enbridge said 91% of the new route will parallel existing rights-of-way to minimize land and environmental impacts. In addition, about 80 acres of solar panels will be installed to offset the project’s operational energy use.Enbridge emphasized that the project will “provide affordable and cleaner energy” to TVA customers and represents a multi-year collaboration that included multiple rounds of public input and environmental review.Once complete, Ridgeline will enhance the ETNG system’s capacity and reliability across the Tennessee Valley, supporting TVA’s transition away from coal and toward a lower-emission energy portfolio.
Natural gas storage dips less than expected, signaling robust demand By Investing.com --In the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas storage has seen a decline of 71 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the past week. This drop is less than the forecasted decrease of 89B, indicating a stronger demand for the energy resource than initially anticipated. The actual decrease in natural gas storage is also less than the previous week’s decline of 119B. This suggests a possible stabilization in the energy sector, with demand outpacing supply at a slower rate than in previous periods. Natural gas storage is a critical indicator of the energy sector’s health, particularly in Canada, due to its substantial energy sector. The storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. When the increase in natural gas inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand, which is bearish for natural gas prices. Conversely, if the increase in natural gas storage is less than expected, it signifies greater demand, which is bullish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more or less than expected. In this case, the lower-than-expected decrease in natural gas storage suggests a bullish outlook for natural gas prices. This could have a positive impact on the Canadian dollar, given the country’s sizable energy sector. The EIA’s report provides valuable insight into the dynamics of the energy market, and the current data suggests a robust demand for natural gas. This could have significant implications for energy companies and investors, as well as for the broader economic outlook, particularly in energy-dependent economies like Canada. (NB: a smaller draw than expected means demand was weaker than expected, not the other way around...this article was written by AI, but reviewed by a human)
Expand Chief Says $3.50 Natural Gas Unlikely to Spur Aggressive Growth -Expand Energy Corp. CEO Nick Dell’Osso sees a U.S. natural gas market that remains volatile in the near term but structurally constructive as producers navigate supply growth, shifting basin dynamics and an increasingly global demand outlook tied to LNG. Line chart showing NGI forward fixed natural gas prices for Henry Hub and Texas Eastern M-2, 30 Receipt from February 2026 through January 2036, with Henry Hub consistently priced above Texas Eastern M-2 and both hubs displaying recurring seasonal peaks near $4.00/MMBtu and winter troughs closer to $2.00/MMBtu, based on NGI Forward Look data as of Jan. 12, 2026. At A Glance:Haynesville growth outpaces expectations
Lower 48 annual output up 5 Bcf/d
Higher-cost supply to push prices up
Into the Great Wide Open — Technology, LNG Pull Gas Producers into High-Stakes Western Haynesville | RBN Energy - Producers venturing into the substantial natural gas reserves in the far-west part of the Haynesville Shale — south of Dallas and about 200 miles west of DeSoto Parish, LA, in the core Haynesville — were historically thwarted by extreme geological conditions and poor drilling economics, which quickly relegated the area to the back burner in the early years of the Shale Era. Now, technological advancements and bullish market conditions are once again beckoning producers to look beyond the core areas of the Haynesville. Rig activity in the Western Haynesville is the highest it’s been in 10 years and production volumes have been ticking up over the past two. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a series looking at recent activity and production scenarios for the region as it fits into the larger Gulf Coast supply-demand balance. We have written extensively about the Haynesville Shale in the RBN blogosphere (see Say You’ll Be There, Don’t Call It A Comeback and, most recently, Sitting, Waiting, Wishing). In short, the wells here are deep (10,500-13,500 feet compared to 4,000-8,000 feet in the Marcellus) and expensive to drill, but the basin offers large, overpressurized, dry gas reserves — a profile that was highly attractive in 2008 when gas supply disruption fears gripped the market and gas prices at the national benchmark Henry Hub were well over $4/MMBtu. As we detailed in Dig a Little Deeper, the extreme conditions remain a risk for drilling economics in the area. The reservoirs are up to 19,000 feet deep with an average well depth in mid-2024 of 16,872 feet, according to Enverus data, compared to 11,700 feet in the traditional Haynesville. Bottomhole temperatures can exceed 450°F in the Western Haynesville, whereas temperatures are relatively cooler at 320°F or so in the traditional Haynesville, although it varies. The extreme depths and harsh conditions mean that it takes a lot more time to drill than in the core Haynesville and drilling-and-completion costs are among the highest in the industry, ranging from more than $20 million to nearly $40 million per well. And while the wells boast impressive initial production (IP) rates (upward of 30 MMcf/d vs. an average 21 MMcf/d in the traditional Haynesville, 20 MMcf/d from the Marcellus and 2 MMcf/d from the oil-focused Permian on average in 2025), they could also require additional upfront investment in midstream facilities and logistics to accommodate large swings in volume resulting from the high IP rates, high-pressure output and subsequent declines. On top of all that, this is a pure gas play without the potential uplift of oil or NGLs like the Permian.No doubt the Western Haynesville is still fraught with challenges and uncertainties. And as we warned in Should’ve Been a Cowboy, it’s still early days and the area’s long-term prospects remain a question mark. But in some respects, much has changed since the early Shale Era days, and the outlook may be as good as it’s ever been.Technological advancements, such as insulated drill pipes, mud-chilling systems and advanced hydraulic fracturing techniques, are now available to handle the extreme conditions present there. As a result, Comstock Resources, the firm that has had the most success in the area, has seen dramatically lower drilling times and costs than just a few years ago. Moreover, Comstock, for one, has said it has been experimenting with a choke-management program across many of the wells, limiting initial production in hopes of improving estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Additionally, in terms of market conditions, the Gulf Coast natural gas market is experiencing an extended demand boom. LNG facilities have added nearly 20 Bcf/d of export demand on the Gulf Coast since 2016 and sanctioned projects will just about double that volume over the next 10 years. And, as we discussed in God Blessed Texas, there’s a slew of data center projects proposed in eastern Texas that could significantly boost demand for both power and gas in the region. The demand boom is ushering in an era of tighter supply-demand balances and higher natural gas prices in the Gulf Coast region (see All Shook Up). This, along with the technological advancements, has made the tough conditions of the mega-well play less daunting, if still challenging.A handful of producers, at least, have dusted off their boots to test the frontier. Figure 2 below plots the horizontal wells (colored dots) with a minimum vertical depth of 13,000 feet drilled in the four counties since 2022. The well count is broken out in the table into producing wells vs. “other wells,” which is defined as permitted, drilled, drilling and completed wells, excluding permitted wells that were canceled or expired. The map also shows active rigs (colored X’s) as of December.
EPA Aims to Limit States’ Regulatory Role as Natural Gas-Hungry LNG Plants, Data Centers Boom -- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a rule to curb the ability of states to hinder natural gas pipeline projects and other infrastructure as energy demand is on the rise and development is accelerating. U.S. data center development clusters closely along major natural gas pipeline corridors, highlighting growing power demand tied to existing energy infrastructure. At A Glance:
Proposal would limit water quality reviews
States have long used law to slow pipelines
Final rule targeted for spring 2026
Delfin Targets Imminent FID, Eyes First LNG in 2029 as Export Wave Crests --Delfin Midstream Inc. disclosed it is honing in on a final investment decision (FID) for its offshore U.S. LNG project within the month as it finalizes equipment agreements with contractors.Image of a map showing the project location of the proposed Delfin LNG export facility with associated offshore infrastructure signified.At A Glance:
FID expected within weeks
Henry Hub 2029 forwards seen near $3.60
Post-surge LNG outlook shifts later
Venture Global Pulled Plant Maintenance Ahead as Weaker LNG Market Squeezed Year-End Ops -- Venture Global Inc. said higher U.S. natural gas prices and a tight shipping market that capped the end of last year impacted both its export volumes and the pricing of its cargoes in the fourth quarter. At A Glance:
- Fourth quarter liquefaction fees averaged $5.15
- Maintenance work brought forward
- Pre-tax earnings guidance cut
Magnolia LNG Pushes Back Louisiana Project Timeline, Citing Biden-Era DOE Policy - A unit of Glenfarne Group LLC, the company behind the Alaska LNG and Texas LNG projects, is seeking an extension for a long-proposed southwest Louisiana export terminal. Stacked area chart showing North America operational and sanctioned LNG facility peak export capacity rising from near zero in 2016 to roughly 36 Bcf/d by 2033, highlighting major U.S., Canadian and Mexico projects including Sabine Pass Trains 1–6, Freeport LNG, Corpus Christi Trains 1–5, Cameron LNG, Calcasieu Pass Phases 1–2, Plaquemines LNG, Golden Pass, Port Arthur LNG Phases 1–2, Rio Grande LNG Trains 1–5, Louisiana LNG and LNG Canada. At A Glance:
Magnolia seeks 2031 FERC deadline
Project proposed with 8.8 Mt/y capacity
Glenfarne cites Biden LNG permit pause
Court Upholds Texas LNG Deadline Extension, Clearing Path for FID - A federal court has rejected an environmentalist group’s legal challenge against Texas LNG’s construction extension, averting another possible disruption in the project’s long timeline. At A Glance:
- Construction deadline pushed to 2026
- Court ruling reinforces permit durability
- Texas LNG fully subscribed
Texas LNG Signs RWE for Final Offtake Deal, Eyes FID - US LNG developer Glenfarne says it is nearly ready to take a final investment decision (FID) on the Texas LNG project this year after fully contracting the offtake for the 4 million ton per year facility.
Cheniere Commissioning Fifth Train at Corpus Christi LNG, Keeping Startup on Track for Spring -- Cheniere Energy Inc. told state and federal regulators that it would begin starting up the fifth train at its Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 expansion project in South Texas this week. In an emissions report filed with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Cheniere said its engineering contractor Bechtel Corp. would begin startup and commissioning operations on Wednesday (Jan. 14). Cheniere said the thermal oxidizer, furnace and ground flares would be operated during the initial startup work.
Weekly U.S. LNG Loadings Fall by 8 Cargoes on Gulf Coast Cuts - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. February 2026 pricing shows U.S. LNG landed in Europe remains competitive, with a wide premium between U.S. Henry Hub–linked supply and major European gas hubs.
- 2.24 Bcf/d: U.S. feed gas nominations tumbled roughly 2.24 Bcf/d since the beginning of the week, driven by maintenance and outages at two terminals. Testing at the Sinton Compressor Station that helps feed Corpus Christi LNG is expected to reduce supply by up around 1.3 Bcf/d on Jan. 14 and 0.7 Bcf/d on Jan. 15, according to Wood Mackenzie. However, those totals could increase if maintenance is extended.Nominations to Freeport LNG have also been reduced after an outage of all three trains Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.
- 2.17 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are set to decline 0.58 million tons (Mt) week/week, or by roughly eight cargoes, driven by reductions at the Plaquemines and Cameron facilities. U.S. terminals are expected to send out 2.17 Mt in LNG volumes the week of Jan. 12, with 59% of cargoes landing in Europe, according to Kpler predictive data. The week also represented a continued shift of some spot cargoes to Asia as export volumes to the Pacific are projected to grow by 0.16 Mt.
- $10–12/MMBtu: Increasing electricity demand backed by reliable LNG supplies will stabilize Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices between $10–12/MMBtu in 2026, according to Enverus. The analytics firm estimates that European gas buyers will pull U.S. supply during the year as regulators hone in on grid reliability. Since the beginning of the year, TTF has mostly hovered in the mid-$9 range before freezing temperaturesacross central and western Europe triggered a rally earlier in the week.
- 8 Mt/y: Woodside Energy Group Ltd. is a major step closer to increasing LNG exports from Australia later this year with the arrival of a floating production unit at the Scarborough field. The firm disclosed its Scarborough extension project is around 91% complete as the unit prepares for connection to the offshore gas production system. Once operational, the unit would process gas from the Western Australia field that is targeted to feed up to 8 Mt/y in LNG exports and 0.2 Bcf/d in domestic market supply.
U.S. LNG Feed Gas Deliveries Bounce Back as Unplanned Outages End, TTF Rallies --Feed gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities appeared to bounce back on Friday after a midweek lull caused by unexpected maintenance at two facilities on the Gulf Coast.
NGI table showing U.S. Gulf Coast LNG netback prices on a 12-month strip as of Jan. 15, 2026, comparing JPN/KOR, NBP, and TTF benchmarks. February 2026 spot-month netbacks range from $8.518/MMBtu to $11.061/MMBtu after shipping costs, with the highest netbacks tied to NBP and TTF. Across the forward curve through January 2027, Gulf Coast netbacks generally trend between about $8.15/MMBtu and $9.50/MMBtu, while margins versus Henry Hub range from roughly $4.80/MMBtu to nearly $8.00/MMBtu. At A Glance:
CCL, Freeport curbed intake this week
Feed gas back near record highs
TTF gained 29% this week
EIA Slashes Natural Gas Price Outlook as Mild Weather Saps Winter Heating Demand -- Benchmark U.S. natural gas spot prices could average sharply lower than previously forecast this winter as mild temperatures curb heating demand, though price strength is expected to return in 2027 on the back of rising LNG exports and power demand, according to updated federal forecasts. Line chart comparing U.S. natural gas prices from 2021 through 2026, showing Henry Hub bidweek prices and residential natural gas prices with annual averages and forward-looking forecasts, highlighting seasonal residential price spikes above $20/MMBtu and lower Henry Hub prices generally ranging between $2.00–$5.00/MMBtu. At A Glance:
EIA reduces winter Henry Hub to $3.56
Agency expects $4.59 average for 2027
Winter strip flirts with sub-$3 amid warm-up
Analyst Reveals What Spurred Monday's Gas Price Recovery - A “recovering” late January forecast “spur[red]…” the NYMEX gas “recovery” yesterday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, outlined in an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday. “The February contract netted a 24.0 cent gain yesterday - reversing Friday’s 23.8 cent decline - as weather forecasts swung back in a colder direction to close January,” Rubin said in the report. “Speculators rotating out of the heaviest short positioning in 13 months may amplify upside, while yesterday’s bounce reset short-term technicals in a bullish direction,” he added. “Today may be the mildest day nationally until late February. Week 2 could see weekly heating demand soar 53 gHDDs and more than 100 billion cubic feet as blowtorch weather flips colder,” he continued. “The Week 3 forecast added 15 gHDDs in the past 24 hours. Other meteorologists also point to chances for reloading cold risks in early February,” Rubin stated. Rubin went on to note in the report that daily LNG feedgas nominations “suggest a record high at 20.4 billion cubic feet per day”. He added, however, that “soaring storage surpluses to year-ago and five-year average levels, and likelihood that the market will manage the coldest days of winter next week without massive disruption, suggest the near-term relief rally may wobble and retreat in the most-likely scenario”. The EBW report highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.409 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Monday. It outlined that this marked a 7.6 percent increase from Friday’s close. In Tuesday’s report, EBW predicted a “test higher and relent” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “rebound and retreat” trend over the next 30-45 days. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone on Monday by the EBW team, Rubin stated that the NYMEX front-month gas contract “plunged to $3.131 intraday on Friday as support disintegrated, taking out key technical support at $3.25 per MMBtu to open further downside risks”. “With Henry Hub physical prices retreating to just $2.84 per MMBtu over the balmy weekend, January-to-date Henry Hub has averaged a mere $3.28 per MMBtu,” he added. “While some meteorologists indicate chances for a near-term gHDD gain, DTN’s Week 3 loss of 16 gHDDs since Friday suggests further loss of fundamental support. The storage surplus vs. five-year normal is poised to rise towards 185 Bcf into the end of January,” Rubin continued. Rubin went on to predict in that report that “daily LNG feedgas may hit a new record high today” and added that “a building speculator short position may raise chances for a near-term price pop higher”. “The longer-term outlook into spring may see more substantial fundamental support with weak March weather comps and low prices driving coal-to-gas fuel switching,” Rubin said in this report. “Nonetheless, deteriorating weather and building storage surpluses suggests further weakness cannot be ruled out,” he noted. In this EBW report, EBW highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.169 per MMBtu on Friday. This marked a 7.0 percent drop from Thursday’s close, the report outlined. In Monday’s report, EBW predicted an “attempt to rebound” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “rebound and retreat” trend over the next 30-45 days.
Analyst Explains Why Feb NatGas Contract Collapsed Wednesday | Rigzone -- In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Thursday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted that the February natural gas contract “collapsed” yesterday. Rubin outlined in the report that the February natural gas contract fell to $3.068 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Wednesday “on (i) chances for a dissipating Alaska ridge opening milder February risks and (ii) a Webber Research report that Golden Pass LNG Trains 2-3 may be delayed until 2027”. “Weakness was compounded by volatility: yesterday’s $3.120 close is within 1.1 cents of Friday’s low,” Rubin added. In the report, Rubin pointed out that daily LNG demand “dropped to a two month low” yesterday, “mitigating weather driven Henry Hub spot price upside to clear at $3.12 per MMBtu”. He also noted that “LNG could jump 3.5 billion cubic feet per day - adding to a 12.4 billion cubic foot per day increase in weather-driven demand into Tuesday”. Rubin went on to outline in the report that “consensus projections” for the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly natural gas storage report - which is scheduled to be released later today and will include data for the week ending January 9 - “are for an 87-91 billion cubic foot draw”. “The bigger story is likely to be rising physical market strength into a cold Martin Luther King holiday weekend,” Rubin added. “Healthy storage surpluses suggest NYMEX futures may try to continue to look past near term cold, however,” he continued. The EBW report highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.120 per MMBtu on Wednesday. It outlined that this marked a 29.9 cent, or 8.7 percent, decrease from Tuesday’s close. In Thursday’s report, EBW predicted a “mixed signals” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “rebound and retreat” trend over the next 30-45 days. In an EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Wednesday, EBW highlighted that the February natural gas contract closed at $3.419 per MMBtu on Tuesday. EBW outlined in the report that this marked an increase of 1.0 cents, or 0.3 percent, from Monday’s close. “The February contract rose 1.0 cents yesterday to close within 0.6 cents of $3.413 for the third time in four trading days as natural gas searches for equilibrium following price volatility since Thanksgiving,” Rubin noted in that report. “The short term market remains caught between increasing cold into late January and simultaneously rising storage surpluses,” he added. In this report, Rubin said “forecasts trended colder for Weeks 2 and 3 to bolster near-term support”. He added, however, that “Henry Hub spot prices at $3.04 per MMBtu remain at a steep discount to the February contract”. “Henry Hub should be less affected than regional basis during next week’s cold shot, giving bears an opening to drive prices lower,” Rubin warned. Rubin went on to highlight in that report that daily LNG feedgas was down. He added that the market “may ‘look past’ upcoming cold” and stated that “rising storage surpluses, despite a cold back half of January, may give the impression of a fundamentally oversupplied supply/demand balance to offer bearish risks later this month”. In Wednesday’s report, EBW also predicted a “mixed signals” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “rebound and retreat” trend over the next 30-45 days.
Abundant Nat-Gas Supplies Pressure Prices - February Nymex natural gas (NGG26) prices settled lower on Friday but remained above Thursday's 3-month nearest-futures low. Abundant US supplies are weighing on nat-gas prices after Thursday's weekly EIA report showed nat-gas storage levels +3.4% above their 5-year seasonal average. Losses in nat-gas prices were contained on Friday amid forecasts of colder-than-normal US temperatures, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand. The Commodity Weather Group said Friday that below-normal temperatures are seen across much of the northern US and East for the January 21-30 period. Nat-gas prices are also under pressure, as feedgas to Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG export facility and the Freeport LNG export terminals along the Texas Gulf Coast have been below normal levels this week due to electrical and piping issues. The reduced capacity at the export terminals allows US nat-gas storage levels to build, a bearish factor for prices. As a negative factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended January 10 fell -13.15% y/y to 79,189 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending January 10 rose +2.5% y/y to 4,294,613 GWh. Projections for lower US nat-gas production are supportive for prices. The EIA on Tuesday cut its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 107.4 bcf/day from last month's estimate of 109.11 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high. US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.0 bcf/day (+8.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 104.9 bcf/day (-2.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.8 bcf/day (+2.5% w/w), according to BNEF. Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended January 9 fell by -71 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -91 bcf and well below the 5-year weekly average draw of -146 bcf. As of January 9, nat-gas inventories were up +2.2% y/y and were +3.4% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. As of January 13, gas storage in Europe was 52% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 68% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending January 16 fell by -2 to 122 rigs, falling further below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
EIA Jan. STEO Predicts HH Spot Price Avg $3.46 2026, $4.59 2027 - Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best estimate of where energy prices and production will head over the next 12 months. The EIA published its first energy-sector forecasts through 2027. For natural gas, the EIA predicts the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price to decrease about 2% to just under $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, then rise sharply in 2027 to just under $4.60/MMBtu. The reason for the sharp increase next year? Growth in demand—led by expanding LNG exports and more natural gas consumption in the electric power sector—will outpace production growth.
North American Natural Gas Facing Test as LNG, Power Demand Set to Collide, Say NGI Thought Leaders - Natural gas in North America achieved celebrity status in 2025 as LNG exports grew, industrial demand rose and hyperscalers looked for utility deals. Production also showed little sign of slowing, even with fewer rigs. Can 2026 top it? At A Glance:
- Storage refills pressuring natural gas prices
- LNG exports approaching 20 Bcf/d
- Western Canada output rising
What Excites and Worries LNG Exporters in 2026: Maguire - (Reuters) – The year 2025 in the LNG sector will be one for the history books after production and exports of the super-chilled fuel smashed records and raked in billions of dollars in revenues across the global liquefied natural gas supply chain. A 25% surge in LNG purchases by European countries was a key highlight and raised hopes among gas sellers that further growth in gas use in economies such as Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom is in store for 2026 and beyond. On the other hand, lower imports by three of the five largest LNG buyers – all in Asia – have raised profit concerns, especially among exporters banking on selling the even greater volumes of LNG expected to hit the market this year. The steep climbs in LNG purchases by several European countries in 2025 beg the question whether the region can sustain such a voracious appetite. On the plus side, Europe’s generation of electricity from gas-fired power plants posted its first annual rise last year since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine snarled regional gas flows in 2022. Total European gas-fired electricity output during January to November was 1,009 terawatt hours (TWh), according to think tank Ember, up 3.4% from the same months in 2024 and the first year-over-year increase for that period since 2021. Further increases in gas-fired power generation will obviously trigger further LNG import demand, especially in markets with shortages of alternative power sources. Europe’s broader industrial economy, however, remains hobbled by weak manufacturing and consumer demand, and output among gas-intensive sectors such as chemicals and fertilizers remains near historic lows in top regional producer Germany. Until a synchronised upturn in consumer and business activity takes root, it’s likely that Europe’s overall demand for natural gas may remain patchy, which may cap any further increases in LNG import interest over the near term. Another question for LNG exporters is whether Europe’s LNG purchases in 2025 were artificially inflated as several countries attempted to narrow their trade gaps with the United States during trade talks with the Trump administration. European imports of LNG from the U.S. last year jumped by close to 60% from 2024 levels, data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler shows. That outsized jump in U.S. purchases – well above the increase in Europe’s total LNG imports – suggests the region may have been trying to curry favour with President Donald Trump as European and U.S. policymakers discussed trade deals. With international focus now turning more to geopolitical concerns – such as the U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland – it is possible that European countries may prove less keen to please President Trump in 2026. MicroWatt Controls: Instrumentation & Safety System Experts If that’s the case, volumes of U.S. LNG imports aimed at reducing trade deficits in 2025 may get curbed in 2026. LNG exporters also have questions about the state of demand in Asia, which accounted for around 64% of all LNG imports last year, data from Kpler shows. Total shipments to Asian buyers last year were just over 613 million cubic meters, marking a nearly 5% fall from 2024. While a 5% volume slip was not much of a concern through 2025 given the steep growth in sales to Europe, LNG exporters will be anxious if Asia’s overall appetite remains weak this year and Europe’s buying pace also slows. The top two overall LNG importers – China and Japan – registered LNG import cuts of 15% and 2% respectively in 2025. The synchronized dip in imports by such critical markets will remain a cause for concern in 2026, especially if China’s economy remains sluggish and trade relations with the United States and other markets remain chilled. Rapidly expanding renewables power generation in China and steadily recovering nuclear power generation in Japan are further causes for concern as those power sources squeeze gas out of generation mixes. LNG purchases by number four importer – India – also dropped by 7% last year, yet another source of worry among LNG exporters who had hoped India would be a steady growth market. Higher global gas prices have resulted in a steady decline in gas-fired electricity generation in India so far this decade, bringing as well a sharp slowdown in spending on gas distribution and storage infrastructure. Bullish forecasters argue the steady swell in planned LNG exports will drive global prices lower and reignite demand for the fuel in fast-growing but cost-sensitive economies like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. They may be right, but with benchmark natural gas prices near three-year highs and rising in the United States – the top global gas producer – it may be hard for LNG exporters to drive sale prices lower over the near term. That may leave LNG exporters in 2026 focusing on already established markets, struggling in Europe to grow sales much from last year’s levels and hampered in Asia by patchy demand as China’s economy struggles for growth.
Targa to Build 500-Mile NGL Pipeline from Permian to Mont Belvieu -Targa Resources will build the 500-mile Speedway NGL Pipeline from the Permian Basin to Mont Belvieu, expand processing capacity with the Yeti plant, and add Buffalo Run gas infrastructure in a $3.3 billion growth plan. (P&GJ) — Targa Resources said on Sept. 30 it will construct the 500-mile Speedway NGL Pipeline to move natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin to its fractionation and storage hub in Mont Belvieu, Texas. The 30-inch-diameter pipeline will launch with a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day, expandable to 1 million bpd. It is scheduled to enter service in the third quarter of 2027 at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion. Targa is also advancing its midstream buildout with the planned Yeti gas processing plant, a 275 MMcf/d facility in the Permian Delaware system, expected online in Q3 2027. Combined with other projects under construction, the company will add five Permian plants over the next two years, increasing inlet capacity by 1.4 Bcf/d. In addition, the company announced Buffalo Run, a project that includes a new 35-mile natural gas pipeline and a 55-mile conversion of an existing line to gas service. Buffalo Run will link Targa’s Midland and Delaware systems and, together with the previously announced Bull Run Extension, expand connectivity to multiple markets including Waha. The staged project is slated for completion in early 2028. CEO Matt Meloy said the Speedway pipeline is central to Targa’s long-term strategy. “Speedway is critical to the continued execution of our core integrated wellhead to water strategy, will generate attractive and growing fee-based cash flows, and will provide Targa with significant operating leverage once in service,” he said. With the addition of Speedway, Buffalo Run, and the Yeti plant, Targa raised its 2025 growth capital spending forecast to $3.3 billion.
236-Mile Texas-to-Gulf Pipeline Reaches FID in $2.3 Billion LNG Expansion Push - A 236-mile, $2.3 billion Texas-to-Gulf natural gas pipeline has reached FID, marking a major step forward in connecting key Texas gas hubs to the Gulf Coast’s growing LNG export corridor. (P&GJ) — ARM Energy Holdings and PIMCO have reached a final investment decision on the $2.3 billion Mustang Express Pipeline, a 236-mile, 42-inch natural gas line designed to move up to 2.5 Bcf/d of gas from key Texas hubs to Gulf Coast LNG demand centers. The project, developed and operated by Houston-based ARM Energy with financial backing from Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) and co-investors, has secured an anchor shipper commitment from Sempra Infrastructure to supply its Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project, which recently achieved FID. The pipeline system will include:
- Cougar Lateral – 55 miles from Tres Palacios Storage to the Katy Hub
- Mustang Mainline – 178 miles from Katy to Port Arthur
- Golden Triangle/Spindletop Lateral – 3 miles near Port Arthur
Completion is expected in late 2028 or early 2029. The project has already secured required steel and compression, with Jindal Tubular USA providing pipe and Solar Turbines Inc. supplying 300,000 hp of gas-driven compressors across three stations. “Developing the Mustang Express Pipeline represents a major milestone in our growth and reinforces our commitment to quality, large-scale customers like Sempra Infrastructure,” said Zach Lee, CEO of ARM Energy. “By linking two of the most prolific natural gas-producing regions in the U.S. directly to LNG export facilities in Texas, we are helping ensure a reliable supply of natural gas for liquefaction and export.” ARM Energy plans to launch an open season later this month for remaining capacity on the Mustang Express system.
Pipeline safety enforcement cut in half in Trump’s first year - The Trump administration slashed pipeline safety enforcement in 2025, bringing about half the average number of cases as in previous years. The change reduces pressure on an industry that includes some of President Donald Trump’s biggest financial supporters and sits at the center of his “energy dominance” agenda. It’s also part of a broader retreat across the federal government from policing companies’ environmental, safety and financial activities. “In an administration with a president who has emphasized, as this one has, that he thinks there is too much regulation, reducing enforcement activity is an easy and unreviewable way to lessen immediate regulatory burdens,” said Cary Coglianese, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who heads the Penn Program on Regulation. But less enforcement by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration risks eroding support for the many pipelines and natural gas export facilities Trump wants to see built — if people who live near them don’t think regulations will keep them safe from explosions and other dangers. PHMSA initiated 111 enforcement cases in 2025, according to data on its website. That’s 44 percent below 2024 numbers and about half the average from prior years — 217. It levied 11 fines last year, far fewer than the average of 45. But a nearly $10 million fine levied New Year’s Eve against Panther Operating Co. for a 2023 oil spill off the Louisiana coast pushed the total dollar number for fines sought in 2025 to a record $14 million. That’s more than double the prior year average of $5.7 million. PHMSA spokesperson Emily Wong said safety remains a top priority for Trump and his administration. “Everything PHMSA does — from encouraging innovation to going after bad actors — is to ensure the American people can safely and affordably access the energy they need, to fuel their cars and power their homes,” Wong said in an emailed statement. “To suggest otherwise is disingenuous and ignores PHMSA’s thorough and transparent process.”
WSJ Op-Ed: Data Center Moratoriums are the New Fracking Bans - Marcellus Drilling News - MDN was among the first to tell readers that so-called environmental groups were quickly morphing from anti-fracking to anti-data center. Over the past three months, we’ve observed in various posts how opposition to data centers (from the same people who oppose fracking and shale energy) has gone from local and regional anti groups (seeMore Evidence that PA’s Anti-Frackers are Now Anti-Data Center andAntis in Ohio Join the Chorus Bashing AI Data Centers) to national groups (see 200 Enviro Groups Want Freeze on Building ALL New Data Centers). The usual bought-and-paid-for suspects in Congress have joined the cause, blaming data centers for high electricity costs and calling for the construction of all-new data centers to be blocked (seeCongressional Dems Blame AI Data Centers for High Electric Prices). An op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal echoes our observations. The title of the op-ed: “They’re Coming for Our Data Centers.”
Rigs-to-Reefs hearing sparks fight over Trump energy plans -A House hearing on a bipartisan bill promoting the use of decommissioned offshore oil rigs as artificial reefs instead devolved into a contentious partisan squabble Tuesday as lawmakers debated the merits of offshore drilling and the Trump administration’s oversight of it.The Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources hearing was intended to discuss H.R. 5745, the “Marine Fisheries Habitat Protection Act,” sponsored by Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Miss.). The bill would expand the use of old offshore oil platforms as artificial reefs by streamlining a decades-old permitting process for doing so in federal waters along the five Gulf Coast states — Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.But the hearing detoured into a debate over offshore drilling, and assertions by some Democrats that the proposal amounts to a financial and regulatory giveaway for the oil and gas industry, and is an “extreme waiver of responsibilities” for their infrastructure.The bill, among other things, would allow the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, in concert with the individual states, to designate Reef Planning Areas. And it would direct BSEE to submit maps of idle offshore structures with reefs to Congress, the Interior secretary and the NOAA administrator.
Mixed Signals – While Many U.S. Refiners Face a Gloomy Outlook, Things Look Brighter in PADD 3 | RBN Energy - The U.S. refining industry has been on a real rollercoaster ride in recent years, as the disastrous COVID shutdown period of 2020 — which led to the closure of many refineries — was closely followed by the “Platinum Age” margins experienced when demand recovered in 2021 and 2022. Since then, the trend has been mostly downhill, as demand growth has slowed and new refining capacity has come online from projects that were delayed during the pandemic. But while many of these trends were felt across the U.S. (and even globally), there have been major regional differences in refiner market performance, a dynamic we expect to continue as we head toward an uncertain future, made even more so by the recent events in Venezuela. In today’s RBN blog, we take a region-by-region look at the future of the U.S. refining industry and explain why reductions in refining capacity are expected in some areas while others may be in a position to thrive. Since 2010, global refinery net capacity has increased by about 700 Mb/d per year, with significant year-to-year volatility (see Figure 1 below). A decades-high level of net refining capacity additions of 2.1 MMb/d took place in 2023, the largest annual increase since 1977, followed by a still-significant 1.15 MMb/d of net additions in 2024. While our preliminary estimates show an addition of more than 1 MMb/d in 2025, they were negated by an even-larger level of refinery closures, resulting in a net capacity decrease of about 200 Mb/d (which excludes all the temporary loss of operating capacity in Russia). In the U.S., refiners continue to face a number of challenges, with less-competitive plants feeling the most pressure. We saw more than 1.7 MMb/d of capacity closures from 2019 through 2025, most driven by the severe drop in demand during the pandemic, with closures across every PADD. A new wave of shutdowns began in 2025 — notably LyondellBasell’s Houston facility (closed in Q1 2025) and Phillips 66’s (P66) Wilmington plant in Southern California (Q4 2025) — with at least one more expected this year, Valero’s Benicia refinery in Northern California, planned for closure by April. (More on these below.) But given the challenges faced by Russian, European, Latin American and even Chinese refiners, the turmoil has the potential to benefit U.S. refiners, who could capitalize and gain new business (see The Dog Days Are Over), assuming global demand growth maintains a positive trajectory — a subject we also address in Future of Fuels.So, what’s next on the U.S. side of things? Our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice has done a detailed supply-and-demand balance by PADD region and developed a schedule identifying the areas (see Figure 2 below) where capacity reductions are most likely to be required over the next two decades, along with those with the potential to add capacity.
- Refining capacity in PADD 1 (East Coast) has been on the decline since 2010 and the remaining refiners could continue to struggle in the short term, but there are no imminent closures expected. The potential reversal of Buckeye’s Laurel Pipeline to Philadelphia will add some competition from PADD 2 refiners, but the continued closures of less-competitive refineries in Europe (along with previous PADD 1 closures) provide some breathing room for the remaining plants. In the long term, in-region demand declines, potential energy transition policies and high regional costs make the further rationalization of refining capacity highly likely.
- Much like PADD 1, PADD 2 (Midwest) is challenged by declining in-region demand. The potential Laurel Pipeline reversal all the way to Philadelphia would be a positive development, as would be the 1,300-mile Western Gateway Pipeline, a project proposed by P66 and Kinder Morgan that would enable refined products flows from the St. Louis area to Southern California (see Going to California), part of the race to move refined products west from PADDs 2, 3 and 4 to PADD 5. While these projects will improve prospects for PADD 2 refiners by opening up new markets, some refining capacity rationalization still appears likely long term, with smaller, less-competitive, gasoline-focused refineries that rely on light crudes considered most at risk.
- It's a far different story in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast), which remains a globally dominant refining region. Its access to export markets allows regional refiners to weather today’s turbulence and even thrive despite domestic demand declines. As noted above, LyondellBasell shut its Houston refinery in 2025 but it’s likely to be the last significant closure in the region for some time. While some small shutdowns are possible and large expansions (like ExxonMobil’s 250-Mb/d Beaumont project completed in 2023) are very unlikely, smaller “capacity creep” and upgrading projects — like recent ones at Citgo Lake Charles, Chevron Pasadena and ExxonMobil Baton Rouge — could lead to net increases in overall regional capacity. The favorable conditions in PADD 3 have even incentivized some smaller refineries to add capacity, as Ergon Refining is planning to do with an impending project to increase crude capacity by 5 Mb/d and add the ability to produce 6 Mb/d of gasoline at its refinery in Vicksburg, MS. The recent developments in Venezuela could also be very positive for complex Gulf Coast refineries if they lead to substantive increases in advantageous heavy crude supply. As noted above, the rate of demand growth in potential export markets will be particularly important for Gulf Coast refiners and will ultimately determine the level of capacity creep which will make economic sense.
- Regional demand and crude supply trends are also relatively positive in PADD 4 (Rockies). These should allow refining capacity there to hold steady in the coming years, with new pipeline access to PADD 5 markets helping to replace any declines in regional demand.
- Refiners in PADD 5 (West Coast) remain under the most pressure, as has been the case for many years. More than 400 Mb/d of refining capacity (among three plants) has been idled in the region since 2020, including one very recently. P66 idled its 139-Mb/d Los Angeles-area refinery complex in Q4 2025, citing an uncertain future environment for refining in California (see It’s Time To Go). The facility spans two sites, in Carson and Wilmington, connected by pipeline. And more is to come soon, as Valero is scheduled to shutter its 150-Mb/d Benicia refinery by April, with plans to convert parts of the site into housing and commercial property while using harder-to-remediate sections for industrial or warehousing functions. Replacing this lost production and potentially accelerating additional closures in the coming years are the proposed new pipelines into the region. These include the Western Gateway project noted above, ONEOK’s proposed Sun Belt Connector (see Go West), which would run from El Paso, TX, to the Phoenix area and be connected to the company’s existing refined products system across Texas and Oklahoma, and HF Sinclair’s multi-phase expansion plans, which primarily target product movements from their Utah and Wyoming refineries to Nevada and California.
While the underlying supply/demand dynamics will drive the overall level of regional closures and/or capacity additions (along with potential new logistics infrastructure investment), it’s important to remember that the actual timing — and which refineries might be affected — will be determined by factors specific to individual plants and their corporate ownership. These include individual refinery profitability, corporate strategies, required capital expenditures (see Turn Around), the ability to compensate for the loss of capacity with another in-system refinery, major casualty events (both weather-related and accidents), and other factors.In short, the U.S. refining system is being reshaped by changes in demand, geography, logistics, government regulation and relative competitiveness. Regions with high costs, a difficult regulatory environment and shrinking markets — like PADDs 1, 2 and 5 — will continue to rationalize capacity, while those with advantaged crude access, strong logistics and export optionality are positioned to endure — and in some cases grow — despite structural headwinds. As we detail in our Future of Fuels report, the question isn’t whether change is coming, but where — and how fast.
How America Plans to Refill Its Emergency Oil Stockpile Using Venezuelan Crude - The Trump administration is exploring a workaround to America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve problem: swapping heavy Venezuelan crude for U.S. medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into SPR caverns. According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while U.S. producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange. It’s a crude-for-crude swap designed to solve a very practical issue that Washington rarely likes to admit exists. Not all oil belongs in the SPR. The reserve was built to hold mostly medium and heavy sour barrels. This is inconvenient because the US has an abundance of light, sweet shale crude. That mismatch has quietly complicated every refill effort since the reserve was drained during the 2022 price spike. As of the latest EIA data, SPR inventories sit just under 400 million barrels, barely more than half of capacity. Venezuelan heavy crude fits into the SPR better than much of what the U.S. pumps today—on paper. But in practice, it’s not that simple. Heavy Venezuelan oil often needs blending, specialized handling, and infrastructure that the SPR itself doesn’t provide. Solution? Park the Venezuelan barrels elsewhere and backfill the reserve with U.S. medium sour crude. This isn’t quite an SPR refill either. It’s a logistical sleight of hand that highlights how boxed-in the refill strategy has become. Buying hundreds of millions of barrels outright would cost tens of billions of dollars. Slow-walking purchases risks turning the SPR into a permanent half-empty museum exhibit. The irony is that the U.S. doesn’t lack oil. It lacks the right oil in the right place at the right time. Net imports are negative, production is near record highs, and yet Washington is still improvising to make the reserve work as designed in the 1970s.
U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Falls to 543 In Uneventful Week - In another relatively slow week, total U.S. rig count fell to 543, a decline of one vs. a week ago according to Baker Hughes data for the week ending January 16. One rig was lost in the All Other (-1) group, while all major basins were unchanged for the week. Total US rig count is down four in the last 90 days, and down 41 vs. this week a year ago. Oil-directed rigs grew to 410 (+1) on the week, with gas-directed rigs falling to 122 (-2) and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 11.
The 40% of US Oil Jobs Lost Over the Last Decade Aren't Coming Back - The US oil and gas industry slashed 40% of its workforce over the past decade of record-breaking production — and those jobs are unlikely to return. In an industry known for its booms and busts, higher oil prices have historically spurred greater drilling activity, and therefore more hiring. But this link broke after years of poor returns to investors following the bursting of the shale bubble in the mid-2010s. New technologies to drill faster for cheaper, corporate mergers and robots replacing humans on rigs resulted in the disappearance of some 250,000 jobs since the sector’s employment peaked in 2014. Production surged 50% during that time. Note: Upstream oil and gas employment is calculated as the combined employment of three BLS industries: Oil & Gas Extraction, Drilling Oil & Gas Wells, and Support Activities for Oil & Gas Operations. In 2025, even as output reached new highs and a pro-drilling president returned to the White House, payrolls are hovering at the lowest level in three years. “This industry has always been cyclical. You ride the wave when it’s good, and you brace for the downturn,” said Karr Ingham, president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers. “But what’s different now is, even when prices recover, we don’t see the same hiring bounce we used to.” That means fewer career opportunities for people like Shaun Carter, a geologist who was laid off when the Oklahoma-based exploration and production company he was working for in 2019 unexpectedly shuttered. Carter took up truck driving out of Houston — crisscrossing the Southeast and Midwest — assuming it would be temporary. More than six years later, he’s still driving, and his dreams of returning to the industry are fading. In the years after the 2014 oil price crash, investors pushed companies to focus on profits instead of growth, triggering a wave of consolidation and job losses. Mergers and acquisitions activity in the sector has exceeded $500 billion since the start of 2023, according to Bloomberg calculations, more than a 20% increase compared with the prior three years. Major players continued to reduce headcount in the past year as crude prices fell, with Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. all announcing job cuts in 2025. US oil producers are pumping a record 13.8 million barrels of crude a day, and they’re doing so with less than a third of the active drilling rigs than in 2014. That means each rig is now producing roughly four times as much oil as it did a decade ago — “brutally efficient,” as Ingham says — thanks to powerful equipment, refined techniques, automation as well as incentives to encourage workers to drill faster. While the Trump administration apprehended former Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro in part to access the nation’s vast oil reserves, major US oil executives have expressed caution about investing in the country. Analysts similarly doubt that the move will open up more jobs in the sector for Americans, as the domestic workforce is available and probably much cheaper, Since taking office last year, President Donald Trump has made it a priority to increase US oil and gas production by relaxing environmental regulations and pushing to open more federal land and waters to drilling. But some experts doubt that proposals to expand offshore drilling will result in new jobs. Those rigs will be unmanned in the future, “They’ll be entirely run by robots and automation, with much of it handled onshore,” Krishnamoorti said. “We’re likely to see a very different oil and gas industry — far fewer jobs, and the remaining ones out of harm’s way.” With oil currently priced around $60 a barrel, producers in some regions are right around that breakeven level that’s just high enough to keep wells running but too low to fatten profits. It’s a fine line for Trump too, who wants to advocate for the industry’s profitability but lower gas prices for everyday Americans. Energy executives polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said oil prices need to be around $65 a barrel to justify drilling a new well. Prices have remained below that level for the past three months, and even a spike would need to be sustained to persuade producers to ramp up spending. “There’s this squeeze of trying to wring out as much cost as possible,” said Trey Cowan, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “Labor is the first place that really takes the punch.” Thanks in part to the efficiencies, some of the producers who have slashed jobs are performing better than expected. In the latest quarter, ConocoPhillips’ production exceeded its own highest estimate despite a decline in capital spending. Similarly, Chevron saw increased output in the Permian Basin even with fewer rigs. Carter has come close to getting back into the industry multiple times. Most recently, Marathon Oil called him in May 2024: After he was a runner-up for an earlier position, the company wanted him to consider a different opening. He said he was interested, and was told to expect a call in the coming days. Days later, driving his rig to a Costco in Tulsa, Oklahoma, he heard on the radio that ConocoPhillips had submitted a bid to buy Marathon. “I was like, ‘Oh no, I know what that means,’” Carter said. He never heard about the position again.
Feds sue to block state oil-field setbacks law -The federal Department of Justice filed a lawsuit Wednesday intended to nullify a contentious state law banning oil-field activity within 3,200 feet of homes and other sensitive sites. The suit in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California seeks a declaration that 2022’s landmark Senate Bill 1137 is unconstitutional. A DOJ news release said the department will file for a preliminary injunction within days to halt its enforcement. SB 1137, championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom after state regulators failed to impose similar measures by administrative means, is seen by industry and anti-oil activists alike as the most impactful of many petroleum-related laws that have emerged from the state Legislature in recent years. Environmental justice advocates pushed for years for oil-field setbacks as a way of protecting nearby residents they said have suffered from a variety of oil-related respiratory ailments and birth defects. But industry proponents have argued there is no scientific evidence supporting the 3,200-foot buffer zone. The state’s oil industry stalled the law’s implementation by preparing a voter referendum, but it abandoned the effort in mid-2024 in favor of a court fight. Two lawsuits challenging SB 1137 are pending in Los Angeles Superior Court. The DOJ’s news release said SB 1137 is preempted by two federal laws, 1920’s Mineral Leasing Act, which authorizes the government to lease federal property for developing deposits of hydrocarbons and other materials, and the Federal Land and Policy Management Act of 1976 requiring the federal Bureau of Land Management to balance various uses of public lands. Enforcement of SB 1137 would forestall about one-third of all federal oil and gas leases in California, according to the release. It adds that the lawsuit advances President Donald Trump’s executive order protecting American energy from “state overreach.” “This is yet another unconstitutional and radical policy from Gavin Newsom that threatens our country’s energy independence and makes energy more expensive for the American people,” U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said in the release. She added that the governor “is clearly intent on subverting federal law at every opportunity.” A spokesman for the Governor’s Office responded to the lawsuit by noting the Trump administration sued California for keeping oil wells away from elementary schools, homes, day-care centers, hospitals and parks. “Think about that,” spokesman Anthony Martinez said by email. “SB 1137 creates a science-based buffer zone so kids can go to school, families can live in their homes and communities can exist without breathing toxic fumes that cause asthma, birth defects and cancer.” Director Kassie Siegel of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute denounced Wednesday’s lawsuit. “Attempting to block the law that protects the air we breathe and the water we drink from oil industry pollution is the Trump administration’s latest attack on our state,” Siegel stated. “Big Oil backed down from their deceitful referendum campaign because Californians wouldn’t stand for it. This is a last ditch attempt to overturn the law’s critical health protections. I’m confident this historic law will stand.”
Harvest Targets Nikiski LNG Upscale as Alaska Faces Major Supply Gap -Harvest Midstream Co. is seeking federal approval on plans to significantly upscale its proposed LNG import facility in Alaska ahead of a projected 40 Bcf/y supply deficit by the beginning of the decade.Cook Inlet gas annualized volume forecast chart showing Alaska natural gas production declining from 2022 to 2041 across high, mid, mean and low cases, falling below steady demand near 70 Bcf, according to Alaska Department of Natural Resources data. At A Glance:Terminal targets 0.4 Mt/y imports
Cook Inlet production continues declining
Utilities face higher gas costs
Alaska LNG Wins Early Federal Approval, Clearing Final Permit for 800-Mile Pipeline Federal regulators have completed all environmental and permitting reviews for the $40 billion Alaska LNG project, clearing the way for its 800-mile (1,287 km) gas pipeline and export terminal. The long-delayed project aims to deliver North Slope gas to global markets and strengthen U.S. energy security. (P&GJ) — The Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council announced on Dec. 11 that it has completed all federal approvals for the Alaska LNG project, finalizing a permitting process that began in 2017 and clearing one of the largest infrastructure projects in modern U.S. history. The NOAA Fisheries permit renewal, issued Dec. 10, marked the final authorization required under the federal FAST-41 process. The project includes an 800-mile (1,287 km) natural gas pipeline from Alaska’s North Slope to a liquefaction and export terminal in South Central Alaska, capable of delivering up to 3.5 billion cubic feet per day of gas for domestic use and global export. “I am thrilled to see the Alaska LNG project finish federal permitting actions ahead of schedule,” said Permitting Council Executive Director Emily Domenech. “After delays during the previous Administration, Alaska LNG returned to FAST-41 coverage to help navigate the complexities of the federal permitting process.” The $40 billion project, sponsored by 8 Star Alaska LLC, a Glenfarne-led consortium, is designed to unlock the state’s North Slope gas reserves, create long-term jobs, and expand energy access for both Alaskans and international partners. “This project strengthens U.S. energy security, creates jobs for Alaskans, and reinforces our commitment to a permitting system that works at the speed of American innovation,” said Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Alaska’s congressional delegation hailed the news as a turning point for the state’s energy economy. Sen. Lisa Murkowski called it “crucial for our future—it can help secure Alaska’s economy for the next generation,” while Sen. Dan Sullivan said the approval “will transform our state with billions of dollars in economic activity and reliable, low-cost energy for our communities.” The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as the lead agency for the review, coordinating efforts under the FAST-41 permitting framework. With federal permitting now complete, Alaska LNG moves closer to a potential final investment decision and construction start.
Alberta Gas Storage Records Rare January Net Injection | RBN Energy -Gas storage in the Western Canadian province of Alberta, the region in Canada with the greatest amount of storage capacity, recorded a rare net injection on January 12 of 0.3 Bcf (red circle in chart below) thanks to much warmer than average weather and robust wellhead production based on data from RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard. This would be only the second time that an injection has taken place for this date (the other in 1995). In the first half of January, on average some of the coldest temperatures that are experienced over the course of the winter heating season, injections into Alberta storage are very rare with only three single day injections occurring since 1994 (including the latest), and a string of days from January 1-8 in 2006 when the province experienced its fourth warmest stretch of temperatures for that eight day span since 1900. After seeing a very strong drawdown for gas storage during December due to colder-than-average temperatures, the moderation in weather has quickly shrunk Alberta's year-on-year storage deficit to just 7 Bcf with storage standing at 433 Bcf as of January 13 (blue line and text in chart below), the second highest for this time of year (last year being the highest). As mentioned in our insight of December 24, even with the December cold, Alberta gas storage remains plentiful and a bearish factor for AECO prices, Western Canada’s most closely watched gas price index. Although temperatures in Alberta may be moderate at present, they are also moderate across much of North America, denting storage withdrawals, and coming at a time when Western Canada is registering very robust wellhead supplies. Another factor at work in the Canadian gas market is that gas intake to LNG Canada remains very uneven and well below capacity, leaving more gas available for the Alberta and North American markets.
Canadian LPG Stocks – Propane and Butane Remain Seasonally Low | RBN Energy - Western Canada’s propane inventories at the end of December 2025 (red line and text in left hand chart below) were posted at 5.3 MMbbl, with a less than average decline of 0.8 MMbbl versus November and stood 0.8 MMbbl (-13%) below the five-year average (blue line) according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The smaller than average decline in the month likely reflected very strong propane production on the back of natural gas output in Western Canada that was near a record and contrasted against weather that was colder than average, with regional heating degree days (a measure of how cold were temperatures) that were 21% greater than last year and 9% more than the 30-year average. Preliminary estimates suggest that Western Canada's output of propane in December was near or above the record high of November. In Eastern Canada (right hand chart above), December propane stocks landed at 2.9 MMbbl, falling a slightly greater than average 0.6 MMbbl versus November, were 1.4 MMbbl (-32%) below the five-year average (blue line), and the lowest December reading since 2019. The region’s heating degree day count in December was 15% greater than a year ago and 12% more than the 30-year average. With Western Canada’s propane production likely near or at a record, combined with strong shipments to Eastern Canada by rail and by pipeline as a mix with butane down Enbridge’s Lines 1/5, an even larger reduction for the month was likely avoided. Butane stocks in Western Canada (red line and text in left hand chart above) fell a seasonally average 0.5 MMbbl in December to 2.7 MMbbl and were 0.7 MMbbl (-21%) below the five-year average (blue line). Butane stocks in Eastern Canada fell a greater than seasonal average 0.8 MMbbl to 1.5 MMbbl and stood 0.4 MMbbl (-21%) below the five-year average (right hand chart) and were at their lowest for December since 2021. The average decline in Western Canada’s butane stocks may have been a combination of strong or record production offsetting higher demand as a diluent in the oil sands with the strong possibility that that output of bitumen reached a record in December.
Canada Leverages Low AECO Prices, Global Diplomacy to Advance LNG Exports - Canadian officials are ramping up trade talks and cooperation agreements with key global natural gas buyers as it looks to accelerate development of more than 64 million tons/year (Mt/y) in LNG export capacity. Map of Western Canada natural gas pipelines highlighting operational, under-construction, and proposed LNG facilities, with major systems across British Columbia and Alberta, key supply basins such as Montney and Duvernay, and export routes to the Pacific Coast. At A Glance:Canada-China LNG cooperation signed
India emerges as key LNG target
More than 64 Mt/y capacity proposed
While Neighbors Race for Natural Gas, U.S. Oil Giants Hesitate on Venezuela -Despite a potential historic opening in Venezuela’s energy sector, major U.S. oil and gas companies are remaining cautious. At A Glance:
- U.S. oil firms cite legal risk
- Natural gas prices stay weather driven
- Venezuelan gas boosts LNG supply outlook
Oil Majors Tell Washington They Want PDVSA Out of the Way --International oil companies are wasting no time testing how serious Washington and Caracas really are about reviving Venezuela’s oil industry. And their opening demand is refreshingly blunt: if we’re going to invest, we need to control our barrels. According to Reuters sources, international oil executives and lawyers are pushing for fast, targeted changes to Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law that would allow foreign partners to export the oil they produce directly, rather than handing it over to state oil company PDVSA to sell on their behalf. The ask is narrow by design. Leave PDVSA as majority owner, they say, but let international partners control their share of production, access export terminals, and—most importantly—get paid quickly. Oil companies are likely to be sticklers on the last point. Under the current framework, PDVSA controls sales and deposits proceeds into joint venture accounts. That system collapsed under U.S. sanctions, leaving billions of dollars owed to partners including Chevron, ENI, and Repsol. For oil companies with long memories, Venezuela isn’t short on geology—it’s short on trust. The industry is also pushing to roll back extra taxes layered onto the law in 2021, which pushed Venezuela’s government take to some of the highest levels in Latin America. Companies are signaling they can live with royalties and income tax. Extra taxes, opaque fees, PDVSA-controlled sales, delayed payments, or contracts open to interpretation, not so much. This legal pressure campaign dovetails neatly with the Trump administration’s broader strategy. According to a Friday interview with Axios, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is pursuing oil and critical minerals deals with Venezuela as part of a plan to stabilize the country economically and redirect exports away from China. The goal, Wright said, is higher production, cleaner flows, and a more predictable business environment—without U.S. government subsidies. What’s emerging is a pragmatic alignment. Washington wants oil flowing under U.S. supervision. Oil companies want export control and legal clarity. Caracas wants cash flow and investment yesterday.
Trump's control over Venezuela's oil threatens OPEC's influence, Washington to own 30% of market – WSJ --Donald Trump plans to resume oil production in Venezuela to lower global prices to $50 per barrel. This would allow the US to control about 30% of the world's raw materials market. Donald Trump's ambition to establish control over Venezuela's oil industry poses critical risks for the OPEC cartel. The US president's initiative to restore Venezuelan oil fields aims to lower global prices to $50 per barrel, which directly threatens the revenues of traditional oil exporters. This is stated in an article by The Wall Street Journal, writes UNN. According to JPMorgan's estimates, the consolidation of US, Guyanese, and Venezuelan capacities will allow Washington to control about 30% of the global raw materials market. Trump's inner circle is considering increasing Venezuela's oil production from the current 1 million to 3 million barrels per day within the next three years. This will require massive investments, but even the short-term expectation of increased supply is putting pressure on a market already suffering from an oil surplus. Against this backdrop, OPEC and Russia have already changed tactics. At a meeting on Sunday, January 11, the alliance members decided to suspend any increase in production during the first quarter of 2026 to prevent prices from falling further. Saudi Arabia maintains a wait-and-see approach, citing the critical state of Venezuelan infrastructure, the restoration of which will take years. At the same time, some OPEC members see potential benefits in Trump's actions: if the US cuts off Venezuelan oil supplies to China, Beijing will be forced to increase purchases from Persian Gulf countries.This shift could give the US greater influence over oil markets, potentially keeping prices historically lower and altering the balance of power on the international stage.
U.S. Exports to Europe Surge as Continent’s Pipeline Imports Fall, Asian Prices Still Weak -Europe’s pipeline imports continued to fall last year as increasing amounts of U.S. LNG entered the continent to displace Russian supplies in a trend that’s expected to continue. At A Glance:
- More LNG is being imported than pipeline gas
- Pipeline imports declined last year
- European LNG imports hit record in 2025
Record EU LNG Import Growth in 2025 Eclipses Piped Gas -Record LNG imports into the EU outpaced piped gas imports in 2025 as the superchilled fuel contributed to meeting stronger gas consumption in the region and filling the void left by the stoppage of piped Russian gas transited via Ukraine.
Greece Boosts LNG Imports, But Still Relies on Russian Gas - Greece boosted LNG imports in 2025, but Russian pipeline gas was still the largest source of supply, Greek gas transmission system operator (TSO) Desfa said in a report on Thursday.
U.S. Cold Snap, European Stock Draws Rekindle Upward Pressure on Natural Gas Prices - Dropping temperatures across the eastern United States and cautious LNG stockpiling in Europe is opening a door for upward price movements in the week ahead. Trailing 365-day mean temperatures versus seasonal normals for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo as of Jan. 13, 2026, highlighting recent deviations from typical weather patterns. At A Glance:Eastern U.S. cold boosts heating demand
U.S. feed gas demand remains elevated
TTF rally supported by withdrawal risks
European Gas Prices Hit 10-Week High -Europe's benchmark front-month gas futures contract settled at a 10-week high on Wednesday due largely to weather and storage concerns, with the bull run showing no sign of stalling on Thursday.
Cold Weather In Europe Pushes Gas Prices 20 Pct Higher In A Week- Natural gas prices continue to rise amid unusually cold weather in parts of Europe, reaching their highest level in nearly six months, reported German Press Agency (dpa). Over the course of the trading week, the price of natural gas rose by about 20 per cent. On the Amsterdam exchange, the benchmark TTF futures contract for European natural gas delivery in one month was trading at €34.30 (US$39.80) per megawatt hour on Friday morning, its highest level since August. The price jump is the sharpest increase since October 2023. European gas reserves are currently at 52 per cent, well below the seasonal average of 67 per cent. The icy temperatures expected at the end of the month may lead to a further withdrawals of gas from storage sites. The tense situation in Iran, which is an important gas supplier for Turkey, has also had an impact on prices. Recent threats by the United States (US) government against countries that do business with Iran have increased supply concerns. The US has threatened new punitive tariffs of 25 per cent for Iran's trading partners. trading partners. The market is also factoring in stronger demand in China, the world's largest buyer of liquefied natural gas.
Problems with exports from Kazakhstan have driven up oil prices in Europe -The escalation of the situation regarding the export of Kazakh raw materials has led to an increase in oil prices in international markets. This has also affected the prices of oil from Azerbaijan and the USA. According to Bloomberg, the reduction in Kazakh oil supplies has significantly impacted the rise in prices in the European market, despite the existence of a global surplus. — The decrease in CPC Blend volumes from Kazakhstan, along with supply disruptions from Libya and several fields in the North Sea, have been the main factors contributing to the price increase in the northern and Mediterranean markets, — emphasizes the publication. On trading platforms on Tuesday, American WTI Midland oil reached a premium of $2.9 over Brent, the highest value in more than a year. Additionally, prices for Azerbaijani oil Azeri Light set a record for the past year. Although at the beginning of 2026, risks for the global oil market were associated with instability in Iran and Venezuela, in fact, the main impact came from Kazakhstan. The reduction in supplies through the CPC pipeline had the most significant effect on the market.
EU’s Russian Gas Exit Leaves Massive LNG Supply Gap as U.S. Volumes Surge - As the European Union (EU) moves to phase out all Russian natural gas supplies next year, questions are rising about the substantial LNG volumes the bloc would have to source elsewhere.Horizontal bar chart showing Europe’s LNG imports by region of origin from 2020 through 2025, highlighting the United States as the dominant supplier with rapidly growing volumes, alongside contributions from Russia, Qatar, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and other regions measured in million tons. At A Glance:Russia remains EU’s second-largest LNG supplier
EU’s Russian gas ban begins 2027
Higher EU LNG imports support prices
Gazprom Exports More to China Than to Europe, Turkey Combined - Gazprom’s pipeline gas exports to China in 2025 for the first time exceeded the company's combined exports to Europe and Turkey, underscoring Russia’s eastward energy pivot, the state-run gas giant said on Jan. 12.
Pipeline leak causes gasoline spill at oil depot in Russia’s Murmansk | Caliber.Az - An oil depot in Olenegorsk, Murmansk Region, Russia, has recorded a spill of about 80 tons of AI-95 gasoline, according to the Telegram channel Tassovka. The incident was confirmed by the regional office of Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry, per Caliber.Az. The ministry said the accident was caused by a loss of tightness in a pipeline connected to a gasoline storage tank.
U.S. to Asia LNG Arb Near One-Year Low as Global Natural Gas Flows Continue Shift -Russia's Gazprom PJSC said it again broke a record for daily natural gas supplies delivered to China on the Power of Siberia (POS) pipeline this week as its flows continue to shift eastward in an ongoing shakeup of the global natural gas market. Table showing U.S. Gulf Coast LNG netback prices for a 12-month strip as of January 12, 2026, comparing JKM (Japan/Korea), NBP, and TTF futures settlements, estimated shipping costs, and resulting Gulf Coast netbacks in $/MMBtu, with netbacks peaking near $9.90/MMBtu and margins versus Henry Hub exceeding $5.50/MMBtu across most months. At A Glance:Russia sets new Power of Siberia record
Plans for second pipeline to China advancing
U.S. arb to Asia closed through year’s end
EIA: Global oil inventories will continue to increase through 2026, 2027 | Oil & Gas Journal -- Global oil inventories will continue to increase through 2026 and 2027, albeit at a more gradual rate in 2027, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted in its January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $56/bbl in 2026 and $54/bbl in 2027, compared with an average of $69/bbl in 2025. Global crude oil prices declined through the second-half 2025, with the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $63/bbl in December, about $11 lower than in December 2024. Prices were flat or fell in every month during second-half 2025 as growing crude oil production and increasing volumes of oil in floating storage outweighed the effects of potential export disruptions linked to tensions in Russia and Venezuela. In the outlook, EIA expects global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2026 and 0.5 million b/d in 2027. Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in OPEC+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of OPEC+, primarily in South America. EIA’s forecast assumes existing sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027. Global liquid fuels consumption increased by an estimated 1.2 million b/d in 2025 and is forecast to increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2026 and 1.3 million b/d in 2027. EIA noted that consumption growth rises in 2027 as global economic activity picks up pace. According to forecasts from Oxford Economics, global GDP will grow by 3.1% this year and 3.3% in 2027. Following an annual peak of 13.6 million b/d in 2025, EIA predicts that US crude oil production will again average about 13.6 million b/d this year. However, in 2027, EIA anticipates a decline in production to 13.3 million b/d, reflecting a 2% decrease from the 2026 forecast. According to EIA, with sustained lower crude oil prices, US crude oil production will decrease as the slowdown in drilling activity will outpace increases in drilling productivity. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price averages $52/bbl in 2026 and $50/bbl in 2027 in EIA’s forecast, down from $65/bbl in 2025. On an annual basis, US natural gas prices are relatively flat in 2026 before rising in 2027 as market conditions tighten. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average just under $3.50/MMbtu this year, a 2% decrease from 2025, and then rise by 33% in 2027 to an annual average of almost $4.60/MMbtu. According to EIA, the substantial increase in Henry Hub spot price in 2027 is due to demand growth outpacing supply growth. Factors such as the expansion of US LNG export capacity and increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector are expected to drive stronger demand, pushing storage inventories below the 5-year average and posting upward pressure on prices.
OPEC expects global oil demand to rise 1.34M bpd in 2027 -Crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by 105,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025 compared to the previous month, reaching around 28.56 million bpd, according to the group's latest Monthly Oil Market Report. The largest output increase came from Iraq, while Venezuela recorded the biggest decline last month. Iraq’s daily oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 4.1 million barrels, while Venezuela’s output declined by 60,000 barrels per day to 896,000 barrels in December. Total crude production by the OPEC+ alliance, comprising OPEC members and some major non-OPEC producers, fell by 238,000 bpd to 42.83 million bpd during the same period. OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged, projecting an increase of 1.38 million bpd year-on-year, bringing total demand to 106.5 million bpd. Most of the growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, where demand is seen rising by around 1.23 million bpd to 60.4 million bpd, led by China, Asian countries and Middle East. Demand in OECD countries is projected to rise by just 150,000 bpd to 46.09 million bpd, driven mainly by OECD Americas and supported by OECD Europe, and OECD Asia-Pacific. For 2027, OPEC expects demand to grow by around 1.34 million bpd, reaching 107.86 million bpd. This is expected to reach 61.67 million bpd in non-OECD countries, with an increase of 1.24 million bpd, and 46.19 million bpd in OECD countries, with a rise of 100,000 bpd.
OPEC crude oil production up 105,000 barrels per day in December -OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.34 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, pointing to a delicate balance between supply and demand in the oil market. For the current year, the organization forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.38 million bpd, unchanged from last month’s estimate. In a report released today, OPEC projected oil demand in OECD countries to increase by 100,000 bpd next year, while demand in non-OECD countries is expected to rise by around 1.2 million bpd. The organization also kept its forecast for global economic growth unchanged at 3.1% in 2026, with growth expected to edge up to 3.2% in 2027, supported by a positive outlook for global trade. OPEC expects the US economy to expand by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, while China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.5% in both the current and the following year.
Goldman projects lower oil prices in 2026 as supply swells - (Reuters) – Oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as a wave of supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday. The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI, and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom at $54/50 in the last quarter as OECD inventories build up. “Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth, barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts,” Goldman Sachs said. Brent crude futures were trading around $63 a barrel, as of 0412 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude holds ground at $59. Last year, both the benchmarks posted their worst annual performance since 2020, with an almost 20% decline. [O/R] U.S. policymakers’ focus on strong energy supply and relatively low oil prices will keep sustained oil price upside in check ahead of the midterms, analysts at the bank noted. Prices are expected to gradually start recovering in 2027, with the market returning to a deficit as non-OPEC supply slows down and solid demand growth continues, Goldman analysts said in a note. The investment bank expects Brent/WTI to average at $58/54 in 2027, although $5 lower than its prior estimate, citing upgrades to 2027 supply in the U.S., Venezuela and Russia by 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5mb/d, respectively. Goldman said it expects a substantial price recovery later this decade as demand grows through 2040 after years of low long-cycle investment, with 2030–2035 Brent/WTI prices averaging $75/$71, $5 below its previous estimate. Risks to the price forecasts are skewed modestly to the downside given a further increase in non-OPEC supply, Goldman said, adding that it expects no OPEC production cuts, despite geopolitical risks and low speculative positioning. “We still recommend investors short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent time-spread to express the 2026 surplus view, and oil producers hedge 2026 price downside.”
Why 2026 could see a global oil surplus despite Middle East chaos - Oil prices steadied on Monday following strong gains last week, as markets weighed escalating unrest in Iran against signals that Venezuelan oil exports could resume. Brent and WTI futures remained near recent highs, reflecting caution among traders amid competing supply factors. Both benchmarks had risen more than 3% last week, marking their strongest weekly performance since October. In early trading, Brent crude futures for March delivery edged slightly lower to $63.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped to $58.87 per barrel. The modest movement followed last week’s rally, as investors refrained from taking aggressive new positions. Market participants continued to assess whether geopolitical developments would translate into actual supply disruptions. Focus remains firmly on Iran, where intensifying anti-government protests have raised concerns over potential supply disruptions from one of OPEC’s key producers. More than 500 people have reportedly been killed in the unrest, heightening fears of broader instability. Iranian officials warned that U.S. military bases in the region could be targeted if Washington intervenes, raising the risk of a wider confrontation. Any disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global supply route, would have significant implications for crude markets. Analysts note that Iran produces around 3.2 million barrels per day, leaving a meaningful amount of supply at risk if tensions escalate further. Oil price gains were limited by expectations that Venezuelan crude could return to the market. U.S. officials have signalled that restrictions on Venezuela’s oil sector may be eased, potentially allowing sanctioned barrels to be sold. Plans under discussion could result in tens of millions of barrels entering global supply chains, easing some of the tightness caused by geopolitical risks elsewhere. However, major oil companies remain cautious about re-entering the country without clearer legal and political protections. Investors are also monitoring developments in Russia, where ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure linked to the Ukraine conflict have raised concerns about potential supply interruptions. At the same time, the possibility of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports continues to add uncertainty to the outlook. These risks have helped support crude prices, even as longer-term supply forecasts point toward surplus conditions. Looking ahead, analysts expect oil prices to face downward pressure as global supply growth outpaces demand. Forecasts indicate that rising inventories could lead to lower average prices in 2026 unless major disruptions occur or production cuts are introduced. While geopolitical risks tied to Iran, Venezuela and Russia are likely to keep volatility elevated, expectations of a supply surplus continue to cap sustained price upside.
Traders Assessed the Geopolitical Risks From Iran, Venezuela and Russia --The oil market on Monday traded higher as traders assessed the geopolitical risks from Iran, Venezuela and Russia driving the recent oil price volatility. The market weighed the concerns over Iran’s oil exports during the Iranian government’s crackdown of the largest anti-government demonstrations in years against expectations that supplies could increase from Venezuela. The crude market rallied to $59.80 on the opening after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his threats to strike Iran if the Iranian government crackdown on protests turned violent. However, the market erased its gains and traded to a low of $58.45 early in the morning as Iran’s Foreign Minister said the country’s security forces had full control of the country and was keeping communication open with the United States. The market was also assessing the possibility of Venezuela resuming its oil exports, with oil trading houses, Vitol and Trafigura starting talks with refiners in India and China for Venezuelan oil cargoes to be delivered in March. The market later retraced its earlier losses and rallied to a high of $59.81 ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up 38 cents at $59.50 and the March Brent contract settled up 53 cents at $63.87. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.94 cents at $2.1544 and the RB market settling up 1.32 cents at $1.7938. Shipping data intelligence firm Kpler said Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes. The amount of Iranian crude and condensate, either on tankers in transit or in floating storage vessels, reached a record high of 166 million barrels in the week ended January 11th. The upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indexes will lead to the purchase of oil contracts, a bullish factor for crude. Citigroup projects that the BCOM and S&P GSCI indexes, the two largest commodity indexes, will see inflows of $2.2 billion in futures contracts this week to rebalance the indexes. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -0.3% w/w to 120.9 million bbl in the week ended January 9. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 724,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 16th, cutting available refining capacity by 450,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.1 million in the week ending January 23rd.
Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports - (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed and settled at seven-week highs on Monday on worries that Iran's exports could decline as the sanctioned OPEC member cracks down on anti-government demonstrations. Limiting price gains were expectations that supplies could rise from Venezuela, another sanctioned member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent futures rose 53 cents, or 0.8% to settle at $63.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 38 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $59.50. It was Brent's highest settlement since November 18 and WTI's since December 5. Iran said it was keeping communications open with Washington as President Donald Trump weighed responses to a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, among the stiffest challenges to clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. may meet Iranian officials and he was in contact with Iran's opposition. He threatened possible military action over lethal violence against protesters. Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to about 50 days of output, with China having bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeking to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, data from Kpler and Vortexa shows. Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump said last week the government in Caracas was set to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. Oil companies have been racing to find tankers and prepare operations to ship the crude safely, four sources familiar with the operations said. In a White House meeting on Friday, multinational commodities firm Trafigura said its first vessel should load in the next week. Two China-flagged supertankers that were sailing to Venezuela to pick up debt-paying crude cargoes during the U.S. oil embargo on the OPEC country have made a u-turn and are now heading back to Asia, LSEG shipping data showed on Monday. Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply from Russia, as Ukraine's attacks have targeted its energy facilities, and the prospects of tougher U.S. sanctions on Moscow's energy. In Azerbaijan oil exports dropped to 23.1 million tonnes in 2025 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2024, the energy ministry said on Monday. Russia and Azerbaijan are both members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allied producers. In Norway, the government said on Monday it will present a policy document to parliament next year on the future of the oil and gas industry, including companies' access to exploration acreage. "The oil and gas industry is crucially important for Norway, and should be developed, not phased out," Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said in a speech. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said in a note that oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as new supply becomes available and creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility. The Trump administration's move to open a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell escalates Trump's pressure campaign against the central bank. The Fed chief called the move a "pretext" to influence interest rates. Former Fed chiefs and key members of Trump's Republican Party also criticized the investigation. Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand by reducing borrowing costs, but could hinder the central bank's efforts to control inflation.
Oil Prices Jump 2% Following Drone Strike at Major Black Sea Terminal -- Global oil prices surged on Tuesday as markets reacted to the escalating drone strikes at the Novorossiysk terminal, which handles roughly 2% of the world's daily supply. The disruption to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure, a vital artery for Kazakh exports managed by Western majors like Chevron and Shell, raised immediate fears of a prolonged supply squeeze. WTI was at $60.75, up 2.1%... While Brent was trading at $65.13, up 1.9%. Two oil tankers waiting to load crude from some of Kazakhstan’s biggest oilfields were hit by drones at the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea coast, sources told Reuters. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium Marine Terminal, a major oil export facility close to Novorossiysk, handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports, as well as some Russian crude supply. The Delta Harmony and the Matilda tankers were waiting to load crude from Tengizchevroil and Karachaganak, respectively, according to Reuters’ sources. Tengizchevroil, operating the supergiant Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan, is managed by a consortium led by U.S. oil and gas supermajor Chevron. Karachaganak, another giant field in Kazakhstan, is operated by a consortium comprising Shell, Chevron, and Italy’s Eni, among others. Drone attacks at or near the CPC terminal have intensified in recent weeks and have affected the loading and departure schedules of Kazakhstan’s crude cargoes. Kazakhstan’s oil output fell sharply at the end of November and early December after damage at the CPC export terminal disrupted flows. Output dropped in the first two days of December after storms and structural damage limited loading capacity at the Black Sea terminal, prompting producers to scale back throughput as storage filled.Kazakhstan relies on the CPC for roughly 80% of its crude exports. The disruption came at a sensitive moment for Kazakhstan, which was attempting to stabilize production following repeated CPC interruptions earlier in 2025. Oil has continued to flow, but at lower rates, while Kazakhstan sought to re-route some exports away from the Black Sea to keep supply relatively steady.CPC operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port, which handles 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields operated by international oil firms.Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, with the Russian Federation as its largest shareholder with a 24% stake.
Crude Rallies for Fourth Day Amid Geopolitical Risks - The oil market extended its gains for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday amid the geopolitical tension in Iran and concerns over the potential impact on the country’s exports. Iran is currently facing its largest anti-government demonstrations in years and the Iranian government’s crackdown against protesters has drawn a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump of possible military action. He told Iranians that help was on the way and on Monday announced that any country that does business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. The crude market posted a low of $59.47 in overnight trading before it continued on its upward trend. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $64.97 to a low of $54.89 as it rallied to a high of $61.50 by mid-day. The market later erased some of its gains and traded sideways during the remainder of the session. The February WTI contract settled up $1.65 at $61.15 and the March Brent contract settled up $1.60 at $65.47. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.4 cents at $2.2384 and the RB market settling up 3.27 cents at $1.8265. In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast world oil demand in 2026 at 104.8 million bpd, down 400,000 bpd from a previous forecast of 105.2 million bpd and demand in 2027 is estimated to increase to 106.1 million bpd. It forecast 2026 U.S. oil demand at 20.6 million bpd, unchanged from a previous forecast and expects demand to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.7 million bpd in 2027. The EIA sees 2026 world oil output of 107.7 million bpd, up 300,000 bpd from a previous estimate, and sees 2027 output in 2027 at 108.2 million bpd. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production will fall in 2026 and 2027 after reaching a record high in 2025. It projected crude production would fall to 13.59 million bpd in 2026 and 13.25 million bpd in 2027, down from a record 13.61 million bpd in 2025. It said lower oil prices are expected to cut U.S. drilling activity and reduce output 1% this year, while potentially higher output from Venezuela could add pressure. The EIA forecast the average price of WTI in 2026 at $52.21/barrel, down 21 cents from a previous estimate, while the price of 2027 is expected to fall to $50.36/barrel. The price of Brent crude is forecast to average $55.87/barrel in 2026 and $54.02/barrel in 2027. According to monitoring service Tankertrackers.com and shipping records from PDVSA, at least two supertankers, not under sanctions, were departing Venezuelan waters on Monday carrying crude. The Panama-flagged very large crude carriers Kelly and Marbella, controlled by PDVSA as part of its ships under lease, set sail from PDVSA’s Amuay anchorage area on Venezuela’s western coast. They are carrying about 1.8 million barrels each of Venezuelan Merey heavy crude. Their intended destinations and whether the cargoes were part of the flagship supply deal announced by Trump were not immediately clear. Venezuela’s PDVSA has started reopening some of the wells it and its joint venture partners had shut amid a strict U.S. embargo, as crude exports resume with two shipments departed on Monday. The country’s overall crude output fell to some 880,000 bpd last week from 1.16 million bpd in late November, with its main oil region, the Orinoco Belt, seeing a drastic reduction to some 410,000 bpd compared with 675,000 bpd in late November.
WTI Crosses $61 as Trump Urges More Protests in Iran -- Crude futures reached 10-week highs Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to continue protesting the regime in Tehran, adding to market concerns about supply from OPEC's fourth-largest producer. Oil prices had already been on a tear from the start of the session after Trump, in a social media post late on Monday, threated to impose tariffs on any country that did business with Iran. He followed that up with a call on Tuesday for Iranians to heighten their protests and "take over" institutions in the Islamic republic. "I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY," Trump wrote on his Truth Social media site. Trump indicated that his prior offer to negotiate a diplomatic outcome for Iran had passed, with deaths of thousands of people reported by human rights groups there, and that the U.S. might see through with its threat to launch air strikes. Iran, on its part, said it was ready for war with the U.S. Oil futures closed up for a fourth consecutive week on Friday as geopolitical risks curbed traders from adding substantially to short positions despite U.S... As OPEC's fourth largest producer with an output of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd), Iran has limited customers for its oil due to U.S. sanctions imposed since Trump's first presidency in 2018. China is its largest buyer, reportedly acquiring than 80% of Iranian crude exports last year. Crude prices fell almost 20% last year but rebounded strongly since the start of 2026, despite a global glut of 3.8 million bpd warned by the International Energy Agency. The rally came on the back of the developments in Iran and Venezuela -- another OPEC member whose production of between 800,000 bpd and one million bpd has come under U.S. control. "We might be at an equilibrium now on supply concerns, with the Iranian production at stake making up more than 80% of the projected glut for this year," observed John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. According to reports on Monday, oil industry workers were among those who had joined nationwide strikes in Tehran. U.S. inflation data released on Tuesday had little impact on the market, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a 2.7% year-on-year growth in December Consumer Price Index -- unchanged from November. NYMEX WTI for February delivery settled up by $1.65, or 2.8%, at $61.15 barrek (bbl) after a 10-week high at $ 61.50. The March ICE Brent futures contract closed up $1.60, or 2.5%, at $65.47 after rallying to $65.92. Among refined products, the front-month ULSD futures climbed by $0.0812 to $2.2356 gallon. Front-month RBOB advanced by $0.0329 to reach $1.8549 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.299 points to 98.93 against a currency basket.
Oil Prices Slide As Inventory Data Overshadows Geopolitical Risks - Global oil prices declined on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains as fresh data pointing to rising US crude inventories outweighed lingering geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to $64.59 per barrel, representing a decline of about 0.6% from Tuesday’s close of $64.98. Meanwhile, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped to $60.48 per barrel, down approximately 0.57% from its previous settlement of $60.83. The downward move followed a report from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed that US crude oil inventories increased by roughly 5.3 million barrels last week. The build significantly exceeded market expectations, which had forecast an increase of around 2 million barrels. The larger-than-anticipated rise in inventories renewed concerns about demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. As a result, traders shifted their focus away from supply-side risks, exerting fresh downward pressure on prices. Market participants are now awaiting official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration, scheduled for release later on Wednesday, for confirmation of crude supply trends. Earlier in the week, oil prices had gained support from heightened geopolitical tensions linked to developments in Iran. Investors closely monitored statements from Washington amid fears that escalating tensions could disrupt oil supplies from the region. US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that the United States was prepared to take “very strong action” if reports of planned executions of protesters in Iran were confirmed. He also urged anti-government demonstrators in Iran to continue their protests, signalling increased pressure on Tehran. In addition, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries maintaining trade ties with Iran, a move aimed at further isolating the regime and reinforcing geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets. Despite these tensions, expectations that global oil supply will continue to outpace demand have capped price gains. Analysts note that projections pointing to persistent oversupply are strengthening bearish sentiment, limiting the market’s ability to sustain rallies even amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil Market Swings on Middle East Developments and Rising U.S. Inventories -- The oil market on Wednesday extended its gains and settled higher for a fifth consecutive session, only to erase all of its earlier gains in the post settlement period. The sharp sell off followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that killings in Iran were stopping, quelling market concerns of a possible military operation in Iran. In overnight trading, the crude market traded mostly sideways as its gains were limited by the large builds in crude stocks and products stocks reported by the API late Tuesday. However, the market traded higher after the U.S. late Tuesday urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately, while Iran warned U.S. allies in the Middle East it would strike U.S. bases on their soil if the U.S. attacked Iran. Also, the Pentagon advised some personnel to leave a U.S. military base in Qatar, further supporting the market. The crude market traded to $62.10 and traded sideways as it awaited for the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report and any further developments in the Middle East. The market remained in a sideways trading range following the release of the inventory report, which showed a build of 3.4 million barrels on the week. The February WTI contract settled up 87 cents at $62.02. However, the crude market later traded to a high of $62.36 before it retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $55.76 to a high of $62.36 as it sold off to a low of $59.77 in the post settlement period as concerns of a military operation in Iraq dissipated. Meanwhile, the March Brent contract settled up $1.05 at $66.52. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.35 cents at $2.2819 and the RB market settling up 39 points at $1.8304. In its monthly report, OPEC forecast world oil demand in 2027 would increase at a similar rate to this year and data in the study indicated a close balance between supply and demand in 2026. OPEC said that demand would increase by 1.34 million bpd in 2027, a similar rate to the growth of 1.38 million bpd expected this year. It reported that OPEC+ crude output averaged 42.83 million bpd in December, down 238,000 bpd on the month. It forecast world demand for OPEC+ crude would average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from a previous forecast, and is expected to average 43.6 million bpd in 2027. Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast of stable Iranian crude production of 3.5 million bpd in 2026 following the Trump administration’s announcement that any country that does business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 724,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 16th, decreasing available refining capacity by 450,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.1 million in the week ending January 23rd. Exxon Mobil is preparing to run Venezuelan crude oil at its 522,500 bpd Baton Rouge, Louisiana refinery. The refinery previously ran Venezuelan heavy sour crude, but has not since sanctions were imposed on Venezuela. Chevron plans to run Venezuelan crude oil at its 356,440 bpd Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery. No date has been set for Venezuelan crude to arrive at the refinery.
Oil prices settle higher, then reverse gains after Trump eases worries about Iran (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday, then gave back most of the day's gains after U.S. President Donald Trump eased fears of disruptions to Iranian supplies when he said late in the afternoon that killings in Iran’s crackdown on civil unrest were subsiding. Brent futures were down 92 cents or 1.41% at $64.55 after settlement at 3:18 p.m. ET (2018 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 96 or 1.57% to $60.19. Earlier, Brent futures settled $1.05, or 1.6%, higher at $66.52 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 87 cents, or 1.42%, at $62.02 a barrel. Prices rose on fears of Iranian supply disruptions due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran and possible retaliation against U.S. regional interests. Trump said on Wednesday afternoon he had been told that killings in Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests were subsiding and he believed there was currently no plan for large-scale executions. "The market now thinks that maybe there is not going to be an attack on Iran so the stock market rallied and oil prices plummeted really quickly," Still, tensions between Tehran and Washington remained high. Iran had warned U.S. allies in the Middle East it would strike U.S. bases on their soil if the U.S. attacked it. The U.S. was from key bases in the region as a precaution given heightened regional tensions, a U.S. official said on Wednesday. "Protests in Iran risk tightening global oil balances through near-term supply losses, but mainly through rising geopolitical risk premium," Citi analysts said in a note. The analysts noted, however, that the protests had not spread to the main Iranian oil-producing areas, which had limited the effect on actual supply. Also supporting oil prices, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday he was optimistic about the economic outlook and expected inflation to wane. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories both rose more than expected last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refining activity and imports jumped. Crude stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels last week, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks increased by 9 million barrels in the week to 251 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a 3.6 million-barrel build. Also limiting price gains, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a U.S. embargo as crude exports were also resuming, three sources said. Two supertankers departed Venezuelan waters on Monday with about 1.8 million barrels each of crude in what may be the first shipments of a 50 million-barrel supply deal between Venezuela and the United States to get exports moving again following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Oil Prices Plunge 3% as Trump Plays Down Prospect of War With Iran -Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trade on Thursday, with both major crude benchmarks retreating by around 3 percent as markets reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that appeared to lessen the likelihood of an imminent U.S. military strike on Iran. At the time of writing, WTI crude was down $1.86, or 3.00 percent, at $60.16 per barrel, while Brent crude stood at $64.57, down $1.95, or 2.93 percent on the day. This drop in prices represents a significant reversal from earlier in the week when geopolitical risk sent prices climbing aggressively. Trump’s claim that he had been told that killings of protesters in Iran were subsiding and that there were no plans for large-scale executions signalled a lower probability of direct U.S. military action against Tehran. This reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting oil prices. Later, in an exclusive interview with Reuters, the president expressed doubts over whether Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah of Iran, would be able to garner support in the country. With the geopolitical risk premium subsiding somewhat, traders could focus on bearish fundamentals, with U.S. crude inventories climbing by more than analysts expected last week. It is also looking increasingly likely that Venezuela's oil supply is set to return to markets, with the U.S. completing its first sale of Venezuelan oil on Wednesday. While markets may have cooled somewhat on the back of President Trump's comments, protests in Iran have persisted, and there remains plenty of uncertainty over what might come next.
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Signals US Action in Iran – Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday after US President Donald Trump suggested that violence in Iran had decreased and that a US military response was not likely in the near term. Brent crude for March delivery dropped 4.15% to $63.76 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery fell 4.56% to $59.19. Trump, who had previously threatened intervention in response to Iran’s crackdown on protests, offered a softer message at a White House event on Wednesday. When asked whether military action was off the table, he said Washington would “watch it and see” how events unfold. He added that “the killing has stopped,” citing reports from sources in Iran. The White House confirmed Thursday that Tehran had suspended plans to execute 800 protesters that had been scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts said markets interpreted the comments as a signal that tensions in Iran might ease, reducing the risk premium that had lifted prices in recent days. Oil also faced pressure from supply-side developments. The US has moved to take control of Venezuelan oil resources after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, completing a $500 million sale, the first since Washington assumed oversight of the sector. Further sales may follow in the coming weeks. Traders had priced in the possibility of a military escalation in the Middle East, a region crucial to global energy supply. With that threat appearing less likely and additional supply entering the market, the structure of oil prices became fragile once again. Investors now watch for any signals that could reverse the calm, knowing that even small changes in the region can affect global prices.
Oil Futures Fall 4% as Trump Winds Down US-Iran Tensions - -- Crude futures tumbled by more than 4% Thursday after a wind down in U.S.-Iran tensions snapped a five-day rally in oil. Concerns that inventories of U.S. crude and gasoline could pile up amid seasonally weak winter demand for fuels also weighed on markets. "It's back to the drawing board on supplies, only this time the focus is on the likelihood that we have more supply than we need, and that prices need to correct after going up too much, too fast," Oil futures closed up for a fourth consecutive week on Friday as geopolitical risks curbed traders from adding substantially to short positions despite U.S... In the span of a week between last Wednesday (1/7) and yesterday (1/14), crude prices jumped almost 9%, hitting three-month highs, as anti-government demonstrations in Iran sparked concerns about the future of crude supplies from a country ranked OPEC's fourth largest producer, with an output of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Heightening the tensions were U.S. President Donald Trump's urging that the protests in Iran continue, while he hinted at the same of airstrikes against the regime in Tehran if civilian deaths mounted. But Trump suddenly switched course Wednesday afternoon, saying he had been informed that the situation in Iran was improving. That led to a dramatic pullback in crude prices. Supply risks also abated amid reports that Venezuela had begun to restart some of its crude production forcibly shut by U.S. sanctions. The development came after secondary sources polled by OPEC reported Venezuelan output in December at below the 900,000-bpd mark for the first time since May. Surging U.S. inventories had put the market on a backfoot too. U.S. Energy Information Administration data Wednesday showed gasoline up 9 million barrels (bbl) in the week ended Jan. 9, and commercial crude oil inventories growing 3.4 million bbl -- propelling stocks 3.1% and 2.4% above year-ago levels, respectively. NYMEX WTI futures contract for February delivery settled down $2.83, or 4.6%, at $59.19 bbl. ICE Brent for March delivery closed down $2.76, or 4.2%, at $63.76 bbl. Front-month NYMEX ULSD futures contract slid $0.0792 to $2.2027 gallon, and RBOB futures contract for February delivery retreated $0.0529 to $1.8076 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.213 points to 99.12 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Oil Prices Tread Water as Supply Surplus Neutralizes Geopolitical Risk - Oil markets remain locked in a narrow trading range as structural supply dynamics continue to dominate price formation, limiting the impact of recurring geopolitical headlines. Front-month WTI crude trades near $59.10 per barrel while Brent holds around $63.64, both easing after brief rallies driven by unrest in Iran and renewed supply risk rhetoric linked to Venezuela. The swift reversals underscore a market that reacts quickly to geopolitical developments but struggles to sustain momentum in the absence of tangible disruptions to physical flows. The underlying constraint on prices is a growing global supply surplus that has become increasingly difficult for sentiment to overpower. Industry data and major forecasters point to robust output from non OPEC producers and steady flows from the Middle East and Russia, despite sanctions and political noise. As a result, inventory levels continue to build, reinforcing the view that recent price spikes are driven by positioning and headlines rather than genuine shortages. In this environment, geopolitical risks are translating into short-lived volatility rather than a durable repricing of crude. Market behavior reflects this imbalance. Each surge linked to conflict escalation or sanctions rhetoric has been met with selling pressure once traders reassess the absence of meaningful bottlenecks in exports or transportation routes. This dynamic keeps crude prices rangebound and limits upside follow-through, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated across several producing regions. For investors, the implication is that oil prices will remain sensitive to news flow but anchored by surplus conditions. In the base case, crude continues to trade within recent ranges as supply growth offsets incremental demand gains, keeping WTI near the upper $50s and Brent in the low $60s. The key variable to watch is Chinese demand, where a sustained revival could absorb excess barrels and tighten balances. The risk scenario lies in continued demand softness combined with rising inventories, which would increase downside pressure and potentially push prices toward the lower end of the current range. Until either demand strengthens materially or physical supply is disrupted at scale, oil markets are likely to remain driven by headlines without escaping their underlying fundamental constraints.
Oil prices extend losses as chance of US strike on Iran recedes - Oil prices extend losses as chance of US strike on Iran recedes (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, as concerns about supply risks eased after the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran receded. Brent was down 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.55 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 15 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.04 per barrel at 0418 GMT. Both Brent and WTI rose to multi-month highs this week after protests flared up in Iran and U.S. President Donald Trump signalled the potential for strikes on the nation. Brent prices were still set for a fourth week of gains. Late on Thursday, however, Trump said Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying worries about possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies. Brent prices have given back earlier gains but remain higher than a week ago, with the decline in prices spurred by Trump's statement that he would hold off on military strikes on Iran, BMI analysts said in a note. "Given the potential political upheaval in Iran, oil prices are likely to experience greater volatility as markets digest the potential for supply disruptions," they said. Analysts remained bearish on expectations of longer supply in the market this year despite earlier OPEC expectations for a balanced market. "Sentiment is driving markets, but the impact of headlines is always short-lived, especially when fundamentals look comfortable in the backseat," said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. "Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply ... unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67." On Wednesday, OPEC said oil supply and demand would remain balanced in 2026, with demand rising in 2027 at a similar pace to growth for this year. Oil giant Shell released its 2026 Energy Security Scenarios on Thursday, making a bullish case for energy demand and oil growth. The company estimated that primary energy demand by 2050 could be 25% higher than last year.
Oil prices on track for weekly gain despite selloff as Trump eases Iran fears - Oil prices rose Friday, bouncing after a sharp selloff in the previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump played down the risk of military action against Iran, easing supply disruptions fears. At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in March edged up 0.9% to $64.35 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1.1% $59.84/barrel. Both contracts plunged more than 4% in the previous session, but are still on course for weekly gains. Thursday’s steep decline came after Trump told reporters that Washington was not planning imminent military action against Iran, helping deflate a geopolitical risk premium that had built up rapidly at the start of the week. Earlier this week, oil prices had surged to multi-month highs as widespread anti-government protests in Iran raised concerns that crude exports from one of OPEC’s largest producers could be disrupted. Those worries were amplified after Trump issued warnings over the use of lethal force against protesters, interpreted as increasing the likelihood of U.S. military intervention. "Any escalation with Iran will also raise concerns about potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point where around 20m b/d passes," ING analysts said, in a note. "While risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term," ING added. "However, the longer this goes on without any U.S. intervention, the risk premium will continue to fade, allowing more bearish fundamentals to dominate," they added. Venezuela’s oil exports resume Trump has also moved to ease tensions with Venezuela, signaling support for the country’s continued role in OPEC and opening the door for Venezuelan oil exports to return more fully to global markets. Venezuela’s state-run oil firm PDVSA has started rolling back production cuts introduced under a tough U.S. oil embargo, as crude exports resume with U.S. oversight, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources. Shipments had dropped to near zero after the December blockade, leaving only Chevron exporting under a U.S. license, the report said. Any increase in Venezuelan supply would add barrels to an already well-supplied market. U.S. inventory data this week showing higher crude and fuel stockpiles also weighed on prices, reinforcing concerns about oversupply.
Oil prices settle up as US begins holiday weekend (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday as some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the U.S. and lingering worries about a possible U.S. military strike against Iran. Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel up 37 cents or 0.58%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $59.44 a barrel up 25 cents, or 0.42%. Most of Friday's gains seemed to be due to buying supply ahead of the long weekend. "With that carrier strike group making the move to the (Persian) Gulf, it doesn't seem likely anything will happen soon," The U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea. Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The supply from Venezuela has not become the tidal wave that was expected," Flynn said. "Buying today seems to be people not wanting to be caught short over the long weekend." Both benchmarks hit multi-month highs this week after protests flared up in Iran and U.S. President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4% on Thursday as Trump said Tehran's crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies. "Above all, there are worries about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the event of an escalation, through which around a quarter of seaborne oil supplies flow," Commerzbank analysts said in a note. "Should there be signs of a sustained easing on this front, developments in Venezuela are likely to return to the spotlight, with oil that was recently sanctioned or blocked gradually flowing onto the world market." Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices. "Despite the steady drumbeat of geopolitical risks and macro speculation, the underlying balance still points to ample supply," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. "Unless we see a genuine revival in Chinese demand or a meaningful bottleneck in physical barrel flows, oil looks range-bound, with Brent broadly hovering between $57 and $67."
Yemen’s Separatists Rule Out Call to Integrate Into Saudi-Led Government - While the Saudis and their allies in the self-proclaimed Yemeni “government” are treating the disputed dissolution of the separatist STC as a fait accompli, the reality of the situation continues to elude their diktats, and STC officials are rejecting calls for their forces to come under the direct control of Saudi Arabia. STC Vice President Faraj al-Bahsani said Sunday that the notion of unifying everyone under a single coalition would be “difficult” in general, and that the STC would absolutely not accept this plan, as announced by that putative government.Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Haidan, from the Saudi-backed forces, announced his intention to unite the forces loyal to the STC and all other militias outside their control under a single coalition, which Saudi officials made clear Sunday would be directly under their command. Rashad al-Alimi, nominally the head of the “government” faction’s Presidential Council, reiterated those intentions and said any support for any militia remaining outside the government’s control would only “fuel terrorism.”This plan rests on the idea that the STC, which seeks to establish Southern Yemen as a separate country, no longer effectively exists, because the Saudi state media announced their dissolution by way of negotiators the STC dispatched to Riyadh last week, who promptly went incommunicado.The STC, for their part, insists they’ve still not been able to talk to any of their negotiating team in Riyadh, nor have any of their family members been able to contact them. The Saudis appear to be holding that team, and are using that to advance the narrative that the group has disbanded, despite it still very much existing within Yemen itself.Though the Saudis attacked the STC while the negotiating team was en route, and their allies claim to control the historic South Yemen capital of Aden, major pro-STC protests continue to erupt in Aden.In practice, the pro-Saudi government of Yemen is a government in exile. Yemen’s capital of Sanaa is under the control of the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, and Aden, which the Saudis declared the “temporary capital of Yemen,” isn’t really under their control either. Maj. Gen. Haidan confirmed as much, saying “additional time” was needed before the government could actually establish a permanent presence within Aden.
As Iran’s Government Tries to Quell Protests, Accounts of Brutal Crackdown Emerge - The New York Times -As the Iranian authorities impose a near-total communication blackout on a country convulsed by mass protests, videos and witness accounts slowly emerging suggest that the government is waging one of its deadliest crackdowns on unrest in more than a decade. Eyewitnesses say government forces have begun opening fire, apparently with automatic weapons and at times seemingly indiscriminately, on unarmed protesters. Hospital workers say protesters had been coming in with pellet injuries but now arrive with gunshot wounds and skull fractures. One doctor called it a “mass-casualty situation.” Despite the communications blockade, a recurring image has made its way out of Iran: rows and rows of body bags. In videos uploaded by opposition activists on social media, families can be seen sobbing as they huddle together over bloodied corpses in unzipped bags. And in footage aired on Iranian state television, a morgue official, sheathed in blue scrubs, stands amid bags neatly arranged along the floor of a white room, under glaring fluorescent lights. The state broadcaster said the images show the danger that protests pose to Iran’s society: “There are individuals in these gatherings who want to drag ordinary people — people who have nothing to do with these events — and their families into this situation. So that they too are drawn into the chaos,” the reporter in the voice over said. “I have never seen images like these in my life before.” Those who still support Iran’s theocratic government and those in the streets calling for its downfall agree: These are days of brutality unlike anything they have ever seen. The toll of dead and injured across the country is unclear. Human rights groups are struggling to reach their contacts inside Iran and follow the methodology they normally use to verify information but say they have counted more than 500 dead. Multiple American officials say that U.S. intelligence agencies have conservatively estimated that more than 600 protesters have been killed so far. The agencies have noted that both the current protests and the crackdown are far more violent than those in 2022 or other recent uprisings against the government. A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said about 3,000 people had been killed across the country but sought to shift the blame to “terrorists” fomenting unrest. The figure included hundreds of security officers, he said. Another government official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he had seen an internal report that referred to at least 3,000 dead, and added that the toll could climb. If confirmed, the death toll would be among the worst in recent Iranian history. Witnesses spoke of seeing snipers positioned on rooftops in downtown Tehran and firing into crowds; of peaceful protests turning abruptly into scenes of carnage and panic as bullets pierced through people’s heads and torsos, sending bodies toppling to the ground; and of an emergency room treating 19 gunshot patients in a single hour. “The regime is on a killing spree,” said one protester, Yasi. She, like other Iranians interviewed by The New York Times, asked that her full name be withheld for safety. Yasi, who is in her 30s and works for a publishing company, said she was marching along Andarzgoo Boulevard in Tehran on Friday night with friends when security forces stormed in and shot a teenage boy in the leg as his mother looked on. “My son! My son! They shot my son!” the woman cried, Yasi said. Videos posted to social media on Monday night and verified by The New York Times showed a large crowd of protesters in Tehran. The sound of gunfire could be heard, and the cry: “Death to the dictator!” For the past five days, the Iranian authorities have shut down the internet, international phone lines and sometimes even domestic mobile phone connections. That has left rights groups, journalists and families alike struggling to understand the scope of what has happened. But videos trickling out of the country and the messages of some Iranians who occasionally get satellite internet connections offer a devastating picture of bloodshed. “I managed to get connected for a few minutes just to say it’s a blood bath here,” Saeed, a businessman in Tehran, told The Times. He said he was using a Starlink internet connection late on Sunday. When protests over the dire Iranian economy broke out in Tehran’s marketplace, on Dec. 28, Saeed took to the streets to join them. He had done the same during the protest movement in 2022 and those before it, he said. But as Iran descends into deeper isolation, it has become increasingly clear, he said, that this crackdown is “unlike any of the protests that came before.” “I personally saw a young man get shot in the head,” he told The Times in recorded audio messages. “I witnessed someone get shot with a bullet to the knee. The person fell to the ground unconscious, and then security forces gathered over him.”
The death toll from a crackdown on protests in Iran jumps to at least 2,571, activists say --(AP) — The death toll from nationwide protests in Iran has surpassed 2,500, activists said, as Iranians made phone calls abroad for the first time in days Tuesday after authorities severed communications during a crackdown on demonstrators. The number of dead climbed to at least 2,571 early Wednesday, as reported by the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. That figure dwarfs the death toll from any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades and recalls the chaos surrounding the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.Iranian state television offered the first official acknowledgment of the deaths, quoting an official saying the country had “a lot of martyrs.”The demonstrations began in late December in anger over Iran’s ailing economy and soon targeted the theocracy, particularly 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Images obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press from demonstrations in Tehran showed graffiti and chants calling for Khamenei’s death — something that could carry a death sentence. As the reported toll grew Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” He added: “I have canceled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” However, hours later, Trump told reporters that his administration was awaiting an accurate report on the number of protesters that had been killed before acting “accordingly.”Trump said about the Iranian security forces: “It would seem to me that they have been badly misbehaving, but that is not confirmed.”Iranian officials once again warned Trump against taking action, with Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, responding to U.S. posturing by writing: “We declare the names of the main killers of the people of Iran: 1- Trump 2-” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The activist group said 2,403 of the dead were protesters and 147 were government-affiliated. Twelve children were killed, along with nine civilians it said were not taking part in protests. More than 18,100 people have been detained, the group said.Gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult, and the AP has been unable to independently assess the toll. Skylar Thompson with the Human Rights Activists News Agency told AP the new toll was shocking, particularly since it reached four times the death toll of themonthslong 2022 Mahsa Amini protests in just two weeks.She warned that the toll would still rise: “We’re horrified, but we still think the number is conservative.”Speaking by phone for the first time since their calls were cut off from the outside world, Iranian witnesses described a heavy security presence in central Tehran, burned-out government buildings, smashed ATMs and few passersby. Meanwhile, people were concerned about what comes next, including the possibility of a U.S. attack.“My customers talk about Trump’s reaction while wondering if he plans a military strike against the Islamic Republic,” said shopkeeper Mahmoud, who gave only his first name out of concern for his safety. “I don’t expect Trump or any other foreign country cares about the interests of Iranians.”Reza, a taxi driver who also gave just his first name, said protests are on many people’s minds. “People — particularly young ones — are hopeless, but they talk about continuing the protests,” he said.
Report: Kurdish Fighters Have Been Entering Iran From Iraq and Clashing With the IRGC - Turkish intelligence has warned Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that Kurdish fighters have been entering Iran from Iraq amid protests inside Iran, Reuters reported on Wednesday.An unnamed senior Iranian official speaking to the outlet said that the IRGC has been clashing with armed Kurdish fighters dispatched from both Iraq and Turkey. The Kurdistan Freedom Party, or PAK, a Kurdish Iranian separatist group mainly based in Iraq, has been claiming that its armed wing has been conducting operations against Iranian forces.On Tuesday, the PAK claimed its forces launched an attack on an IRGC base in western Iran. TheReuters report and claims of Kurdish attacks come as Tehran is accusing the US and Israel of arming “terorrists” inside Iran who have attacked Iranian security forces.The US has a significant presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, including a military base and an $800 million consulate compound that it opened in December. The Israeli Mossad is also known for having a presence in the area, and Iran claimed that it attacked a Mossad base in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2024.The Mossad has a long history of covert operations inside Iran, and a Farsi-language X accountaffiliated with the Israeli spy agency suggested it had operatives on the ground in Iran when the protests first broke out. “Let’s come out to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from afar and verbally. We are with you in the field as well,” the account said on December 29. Israel’s Channel 14 has reported that “foreign actors” have armed protesters in Iran and said that’s the reason why hundreds of Iranian security personnel have been killed.“We reported tonight on Channel 14: foreign actors are arming the protesters in Iran with live firearms, which is the reason for the hundreds of regime personnel killed,” Channel 14 reporter Tamir Morag wrote on X on Tuesday. “Everyone is free to guess who is behind it.”
Iran & Israel Secretly Agreed Not To Attack Each Other Through Russian Backchannel --There may have been some back-channel dealmaking and a 'mutual understanding' reached between Iran and Israel far behind the scenes as protests unfolded on Iran's streets, and as President Trump began to make threats about striking Tehran.At a moment Trump seems to have climbed down (at least for now) from the threatened drive to intervene militarily, The Washington Post has issued a Wednesday report saying Israel and Iran have been in indirect diplomatic contact via Russia as a mediator."Days before protests erupted in Iran in late December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first," WaPo writes. "Iran responded through the Russian channel that it would also refrain from a preemptive attack, diplomats and regional officials with knowledge of the exchange said."Could this be because of the Iranian missiles that rained down on Tel Aviv back in June? If so, it seems the Islamic Republic has finally established deterrence. The timeline of what was communicated when remains unclear. But this backchannel had already been revealed in Middle East media reports, for example in the following prior reporting:Israel and Iran have recently exchanged secret, indirect messages through Russia in the midst of heightened regional tensions, according to a new report by Amwaj.media today. The exchanges were described as an effort to prevent further military escalation rather than to establish any form of ceasefire or diplomatic framework.According to the report, the messages were conveyed through Russian President Vladimir Putin after Israel sought to pass along a signal that it was not interested in escalating military conflict at this stage. Iranian officials acknowledged the message but emphasized that their reply carried no commitment, no coordination, and no obligation on Iran’s part. An Iranian political source quoted in the report said bluntly that “there is no commitment, no coordination, and no ceasefire agreement.” The source emphasized that the contact should not be interpreted as a step toward broader understandings between the two countries, which remain bitter adversaries with no direct diplomatic ties.The exchanges were reportedly limited in scope and intent. No guarantees were offered, no timelines were discussed, and no monitoring or enforcement mechanisms were established. One source described the communication as “a mutual announcement to a mutual friend on no new strikes,” meaning that the goal was simply to manage tensions at a specific moment rather than to lock in any lasting arrangement.A senior Iranian political source confirmed that indirect communication with Israel had indeed taken place, identifying Russia, and specifically Putin, as the intermediary. The source reiterated that there was “no ceasefire agreement” and that the messages amounted only to parallel notifications of intent, rather than a shared understanding or deal.The report says the Iranian side of the exchanges was handled not by the foreign ministry but by Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. It's possible that this served as important background to Trump's apparent decision to not strike Iran at this point. Israel is usually the country yelling loudest to hit Iran, but this time the Netanyahu government was somewhat muted.
Israel Has Demolished 2,500 Buildings in Gaza Since Signing Ceasefire Deal - Israeli forces have destroyed more than 2,500 buildings in Gaza since the signing of the ceasefire deal in early October, The New York Times reported on Monday, citing satellite imagery from Planet Labs. The majority of the demolitions have occurred on the Israeli-occupied side of the so-called “yellow line,” the vague boundary separating the two sides of Gaza, but the IDF has also destroyed dozens of buildings beyond the yellow line. The Times report cited Husam Badran, a Hamas official who said the demolitions were a violation of the ceasefire deal, which calls for the halt of “all military operations” in Gaza. “The agreement isn’t vague, it’s clear,” he said. “Destroying people’s homes and property isn’t allowed. They’re hostile actions.” The IDF has justified the demolitions by claiming it is only destroying Hamas infrastructure and tunnels, but others have noted the indiscriminant nature of the campaign, which has involved the destruction of entire residential blocks, farmland, and greenhouses. “This is absolute destruction,” Shaul Arieli, a former IDF officer, told the Times. “It’s not selective destruction, it’s everything.” Mohammed al-Astal, a political analyst based in Gaza, told the paper that the IDF is “destroying everything in front of it — homes, schools, factories, and streets. There’s no security justification for what it’s doing.”
Seven Children Dead from Cold in Gaza amid Storms and Collapsing Shelters - The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip announced on Monday that three children have died from extreme cold, bringing the total number of child deaths since the start of winter to seven, as officials warned of catastrophic consequences from an incoming polar weather system threatening around 1.5 million Palestinians. Civil Defense authorities and Al-Shifa Hospital also reported four additional deaths caused by partial collapses of war-damaged buildings west of Gaza City, triggered by strong winds and heavy rain battering the enclave. In the central Gaza Strip, thousands of displaced residents in the Nuseirat refugee camp were forced to seek shelter inside mosques and partially destroyed structures after violent winds tore down their tents. Civil Defense spokesperson Mahmoud Basal told Anadolu Agency that a new polar air depression began affecting Gaza on Tuesday, warning that its impact could be devastating for families already living in dire conditions. He said more than 1.5 million people are currently sheltering in tents, many of which are unable to withstand severe weather. Basal warned that the deteriorating conditions could lead to further casualties, as well as the collapse of unstable buildings and the flooding of displacement camps. He renewed his appeal to the international community and humanitarian organizations to urgently intervene, stressing the need to provide assistance that preserves civilians’ dignity and prevents further loss of life. Palestinian weather forecaster Laith Al-Alami said the Palestinian territories are being affected by a deep and stormy low-pressure system from Monday night through Tuesday evening, accompanied by a very cold polar air mass. He warned of sharply dropping temperatures, strong winds—particularly along the coast—and heavy rainfall across all governorates, including Gaza, with the possibility of thunderstorms and hail. He cautioned that high wind speeds pose a serious threat to tents housing displaced families.
Ukraine Reports 200,000 Soldiers AWOL, 2 Million Ukrainians Avoid Conscription - The Ukrainian military revealed some of its struggles to get men in uniform and remain on the frontlines. “I don’t want to be a populist — I want to be a realist,” Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said. “The Ministry of Defense is coming into my hands with a [$6.7 million] shortfall, two million Ukrainians who are wanted and 200,000 who are AWOL.” Ukrainska Pravda reports the number of desertions is significantly higher, nearly 300,000. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned into a four-year-long war of attrition. As a much larger country, Russia has been slowly winning the conflict. Ukraine’s manpower issues have been previously documented, but a public admission from a top official is rare. Ukraine has attempted to fill its ranks by barring men from leaving the country and conscripting all males 25 and older. Ukraine is also facing a massive budget shortfall. The EU has attempted to exploit frozen Russian assets held in Europe to fund Kiev, but has failed to agree on how to execute the scheme.
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