Markets' hopes for Fed interest rate cuts are rapidly fading away -- As both energy prices and inflation fears pop, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are sliding.Traders in recent days have abandoned hopes of an early summer easing from the central bank, a change in thinking that coincided with the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran and a burst in oil prices to around $100 a barrel. Prior to the conflict, the market anticipation had been for a quarter percentage point rate reduction in June, likely another one in September, and an outside chance of even three depending on how the economics played out, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch calculations.Much of the thinking behind that approach was that a softening labor market, moderating inflation and a new dovish chair coming on board in May would push the Fed into an easing posture. But at least as long as the Iran drama plays out, the expectations now are that fighting inflation will remain paramount.“A higher inflation path will make it harder for the Fed to start cutting soon,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a Wednesday note. The firm officially adjusted its rate forecast pushing back the next cut to September from June. However, Goldman’s economists still think the Fed could lower once more before the end of 2026.“If the labor market weakens sooner and more substantially than we expect, we do not think that concern about the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations would be an obstacle to earlier rate cuts,” they wrote. Traders in the fed funds futures market have taken even a September cut off the table and now see only one coming, in December, according to the CME gauge.There are no additional cuts priced in until well into 2027 or even into the early part of 2028, despite the presence of presumptive new Chair Kevin Warsh, picked by President Donald Trump ostensibly for a willingness to ease aggressively. Current Chair Jerome Powell leaves the position in May.Whether that outlook holds up likely will depend on how things play out in the Middle East. Should the situation improve, it could reinstall a sense of normalcy to the markets and renew hopes for more easing. Even with Brent crude settling above $100, Trump again called on Powell to cut.“Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” Trump posted on Truth Social.The Fed will get another look at inflation data Friday morning when the Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures price index data for January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect core PCE, a key focus for Fed officials, to show an increase to 3.1% on the annual inflation rate. A reading like that would represent a 0.1 percentage point gain from December as well as a step further away from the Fed’s 2% goal. It also would indicate that inflation pressures were percolating well ahead of the Iran strike and might well give officials even further pause about the prospects for lower rates.
Trump demands Fed chair cut interest rates 'immediately' -- US President Donald Trump demanded on Thursday that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates “immediately,” criticizing Jerome Powell for waiting until the central bank’s next policy meeting. “Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. The remarks are the latest criticism from Trump toward the Federal Reserve’s leadership as the administration pushes for looser monetary policy to support economic growth and financial markets. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the central bank’s decisions are based on incoming economic data, and are typically made during scheduled meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed has maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts in recent months as officials monitor inflation trends, labor market conditions and financial stability risks. Trump has frequently criticized Powell’s policy approach, arguing that the Fed has been slow to respond with interest-rate reductions. The latest comments come amid heightened volatility in global markets and growing debate among investors about the timing of potential US monetary easing.
Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh meets with more senators as Thom Tillis blockade continues -Federal Reserve chairman nominee Kevin Warsh’s chances of getting quickly confirmed by the Senate looked as gloomy as the weather in Washington on Thursday as he met with more senators in a bid to bolster his chances. “It doesn’t look like such a nice day today,” Warsh quipped to a CNBC reporter in the Hart Senate Office Building, as heavy rain poured outside, on his way to a chat with Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. “Things are progressing well, good to see you,” Warsh said when asked how the meetings were going. Rounds, after the meeting, posted on X that Warsh “will help keep the central bank accountable and focused on its statutory mission.” Warsh’s nomination by President Donald Trump is bogged down because of an effective blockade imposed by Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who sits on the Banking Committee. That panel is the first hurdle for would-be Fed board members such as Warsh. Tillis has vowed to vote against passing along Warsh’s nomination or any other Fed nominee to the full Senate for a confirmation vote as long as a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains in progress. Powell has said the criminal probe by the Department of Justice is the result of him and other Fed board members refusing to cut interest rates as quickly and as drastically as Trump has demanded. Trump complained again Thursday in a Truth Social post about the Fed under Powell not lowering interest rates as much as he wants. “Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome `Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” Trump posted. Tillis’ stance could prevent Warsh from getting a vote by the Senate to confirm him as head of the central bank until he retires at the end of his term in January.
Judge tosses out 'unsubstantiated' subpoenas into Powell -A federal judge dismissed a probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over renovations at the central bank, according to documents unsealed Friday.
- Key Insight: U.S. District Judge James Boasberg wrote in documents unsealed Friday that the Trump administration produced no evidence to suspect Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of a crime, justifying the tossing of the subpoenas. The Justice Department said it would challenge the decision.
- Expert quote: "The Government has produced essentially zero evidence to suspect Chair Powell of a crime; indeed, its justifications are so thin and unsubstantiated that the Court can only conclude that they are pretextual." — U.S. District Judge James Boasberg.
- What's at stake: The probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell complicates the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, who has been tapped to lead the central bank, as several lawmakers say they will delay the process until any charges against the current Fed chief are dropped.
A federal judge wrote in an opinion that a "mountain of evidence" suggests the subpoenas were an effort to push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates or resign.
DOJ to appeal judge’s decision to block Fed subpoenas in Powell criminal probe - A federal judge in a scathing ruling blocked subpoenas issued by a grand jury to the Federal Reserve as part of a criminal investigation of Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro immediately said that the Department of Justice would appeal what she called the “outrageous” ruling, after it was unsealed Friday. Friday’s action will likely keep Powell in the chairman’s seat longer because Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has vowed to block Kevin Warsh’s confirmation to succeed Powell until the federal investigation ends. That may mean interest rates remain higher than President Donald Trump wants for longer because Powell has refused to bend to the president’s demands to lower them further. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, in his ruling, said evidence showed Pirro was motivated to investigate Powell because of a desire to get the Fed chief to bow to Trump and cut interest rates quickly and broadly. Pirro’s investigation purportedly is focused on the Fed’s multibillion-dollar renovation of its headquarters in Washington and on Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee about that project. “Did prosecutors issue those subpoenas for a proper purpose? The Court finds that they did not,” Boasberg wrote in the decision in U.S. District Court in Washington, which was dated Wednesday, but unsealed on Friday. “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will,” the judge wrote. “On the other side of the scale, the Government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the President,” Boasberg wrote. Judge blocks subpoenas against Fed Chair Powell citing 'essentially zero evidence'watch now VIDEO03:31 Judge blocks subpoenas against Fed Chair Powell citing ‘essentially zero evidence’ Pirro blasted Boasberg’s ruling at a news conference Friday, calling it “outrageous.” “Jerome Powell is now bathed in immunity,” she fumed. “This is wrong, and it is without legal authority.” Tillis, in a post on X on Friday, predicted the ruling will stand. “This ruling confirms just how weak and frivolous the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell is and it is nothing more than a failed attack on Fed independence,” he said. “We all know how this is going to end and the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office should save itself further embarrassment.” The Federal Reserve declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.
Republicans block Democratic bill to fund DHS agencies other than ICE, CBP -Senate Democrats on Wednesday seemingly sought to turn the tables on Republicans, asking for unanimous consent to pass a bill to fund agencies within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that do not conduct immigration enforcement. Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, asked for unanimous consent for a measure to fund the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), U.S. Coast Guard and other agencies. It would not cover Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) or Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Republican Sen. Katie Britt (Ala.) objected. “We have political games being played by our Democratic colleagues instead of putting the people of this nation first,” Britt said. “Mr. President, what we’ve just seen put forth by the senator from Washington would effectively defund our law enforcement officers that are charged with keeping Americans safe.” She added, “Look, we’re not going back to the era of defund police. We’re not doing it.” Murray responded to Britt’s assertion: “Now, some on the other side are claiming that the bill I just offered would defund Customs — or Homeland Security Investigations. That too is absurd.” “All the bill I just offered does is fund the rest of DHS while talks continue on ICE and Border Patrol, and the simple fact is Republicans have already funded these agencies when they gave them more money, than most militaries by the way, in their Big Ugly Bill,” she added. Republicans have been ramping up pressure on Democrats to end the DHS shutdown, which is in its fourth week, accusing the minority party of endangering Americans by refusing to fund the department just as the Iran conflict is heightening threats to the homeland and of cutting off law enforcement resourcesthat help prevent dangerous drugs from entering the U.S. They’ve also pointed to hours-long TSA lines at some airports around the country in a bid to push Democrats to relent. Democrats, however, are seemingly making a political bet that more voters are likely to praise them for seeking to rein in the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown — after two fatal shootings of U.S. citizens at the hands of immigration agents in Minneapolis — than will blame them for keeping DHS shut down. And they are seeking to put the blame for any pain DHS employees going without paychecks or other Americans might feel squarely back on the GOP. “I don’t want to hear any complaints from Republicans about TSA not being funded if they block this today. I don’t want to hear any complaints from Republicans about Coast Guard not being funded if they block this today,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said before Murray spoke. “I don’t want to hear any complaints from Republicans about cybersecurity and CISA if they block this today, the bottom line is very simple,” he added. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) noted the vote “would send a very clear signal that they are not interested in opening up TSA at our airports, FEMA for natural disasters, or CISA protecting us from cyber threats.” He added later, “We’re concerned about lines at our airports. We’re concerned about our TSA agents able to pay their bills for their family, and if Republicans do not object to Senator Murray’s bill, they will move forward.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), meanwhile, accused Democrats of refusing to sit down and reach a deal with the White House to fund DHS. “I guess I’m at a loss as to why we continue to have an attempt, a one-sided attempt, it is, to actually sit down and solve this deal, and why we can’t, then, at least fund these agencies with a continuing resolution until such time as we can,” Thune said.m
Democrats vow to shut down Senate over Iran conflict - A group of Senate Democrats are threatening to use every procedural tool at their disposal to hold up business on the Senate floor unless Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and other senior officials testify before key committees under oath on the military conflict with Iran. “We have collectively agreed that we’re going to use the levers that we have,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said Monday evening. “We should be having hearings on the biggest military engagement since the war in Afghanistan.” “Each individual senator has a tremendous amount of power to disrupt the normal functioning of the Senate as well as certain privileges that we can exercise, and what we have agreed right now is that we’re not going to let the Senate continue business as usual, which seems to be ignoring the urgent issues the American people are dealing with,” he said. The Democrats want to grill Rubio and Hegseth in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee over the expected duration of the conflict, its cost, the lack of a clear endgame, and the lack of clear rules of engagement amid growing civilian casualties, including an estimated 170 people killed by a missile strike on a girls’ school in southern Iran. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, have asked the GOP chairs of those panels to hold hearings and ask Trump Cabinet officials to testify. “We are demanding there be hearings, debate, questions answered — that the Senate do its job,” Booker said. “It is unacceptable that we have not had hearings and we have not had a sufficient debate on the issues in public … in hearings, witnesses under oath. That is what we are demanding.” The group of Democratic lawmakers threatening to hold up Senate business includes Booker and Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), two potential presidential candidates; Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), an expert on the 1973 War Powers Act; Sen. Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), an Iraq War veteran and Purple Heart recipient; and Sens. Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Tammy Baldwin (Wis.). The Democrats have already filed five different resolutions directing the administration to remove U.S. troops from military hostilities against Iran, and they plan to force Republicans to repeatedly debate and vote on the conflict on the Senate floor. “As senators we have the right to force a vote and debate every single day in the Senate. That’s not a right under the rules, by the way, granted to us by the majority. That’s a right given to us by the statute,” Murphy said, referring to the 1973 War Powers Act, which Kaine used to force a vote last week on halting military action against Iran. “What we’re saying is we’re not going to let the Senate be silent. We want there to be a hearing so that the American public can hear from their leaders why they think this war is in the national interest. I think they’ll fail in that exercise,” he added. Democrats have the ability to force votes on the Iran conflict under the War Powers Act, which creates a privileged pathway for resolutions ordering the halt of military action not authorized by Congress. The law requires the Foreign Relations Committee to either report such a resolution within 10 days of being introduced or face a Senate vote to discharge the measure to the floor.
State Department Bypasses Congress To Send More Than 20,000 Bombs To Israel - The Trump administration is bypassing Congress to arm Israel with more than 20,000 bombs by declaring the war with Iran an “emergency” as US-Israeli strikes continue to pound the Islamic Republic.The State Department said in a statement on Friday that it had approved a “Foreign Military Sale” to arm Israel with 12,000 BLU-110A/B general-purpose, 1,000-pound bomb bodies at a value of $151.8 million.“The Secretary of State has determined and provided detailed justification that an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Israel of the above defense articles and defense services is in the national security interests of the United States, thereby waiving the Congressional review requirements under Section 36(b) of the Arms Export Control Act, as amended,” the department said.According to The New York Times, the deal also includes 10,000 500-pound bombs and 5,000 small-diameter bombs, worth about $500 million, bringing the total cost of the sale to more than $650 million. It’s unclear if the deal will be funded by US military aid, which is how the US typically arms Israel.The deal marks at least the fourth time the Trump administration has bypassed Congress to arm Israel. Back in January, the State Department approved a $6.5 billion weapons package for Israel that included Apache attack helicopters and military vehicles without waiting for the normal congressional review process.
US Intelligence Report Says Large-Scale War Unlikely To Achieve Regime Change in Iran -- A classified report from the US’s National Intelligence Council has found that even a large-scale US assault on Iran is unlikely to oust the Islamic government and military establishment, The Washington Post reported on Saturday. The intelligence report was completed about one week before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28 with major airstrikes, including Israeli strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite the slaying of Khamenei, the government remains intact, and Iran’s military continues to launch counterattacks against Israel and US bases in the region.A source told the Post that it was “unlikely” the fractured opposition in Iran would be able to take power and that if Khamenei were killed, the Iranian government would undertake the process to replace him. On Sunday, Iranian media reported that Iran’s Assembly of Experts has now chosen Khamenei’s son as the new leader.While several Trump administration officials have denied that the US is seeking regime change, President Trump has made clear that it’s his ultimate goal. He said last week that he wanted a say in choosing Iran’s next leader and called for the country’s “unconditional surrender.” US officials also told the Post that, so far, there’s no sign of an uprising against the Iranian government or of fissures within it that could result in a new regime. Israeli officials have also told Israeli media that there’s no sign of Iranian military collapse despite the heavy US-Israeli air campaign.
Report: Trump Has Expressed 'Serious Interest' in Sending Troops Into Iran - President Trump has expressed “serious interest” in the idea of sending US troops into Iran, NBC News reported on Saturday, citing US officials.The officials said that Trump has discussed the idea of deploying ground troops with aides and senior Republicans in Congress. Publicly, the president has refused to rule out the idea of putting “boots on the ground” in Iran.The US has about 50,000 troops in the Middle East, nothing near the force that would be needed for a full-scale invasion, but sending in special operations teams is on the table.According to a report from Axios, the US is considering sending in a team of special operations forces to secure Iran’s stockpiles of uranium that’s enriched at the 60% level, which is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade. The night before the US and Israel began, Oman’s foreign minister said Tehran was willing to hand the uranium to the US as part of a diplomatic deal.The Axios report said the potential special-operations raid to seize the uranium wouldn’t happen until a later stage of the war. One major issue with the plan is the fact that it’s believed the enriched uranium is still buried under the rubble as a result of the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the June 2025 war.Another option for a special operations raid would be attempting to seize Kharg Island, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf where a major oil terminal that handles most of Iran’s oil exports is located.Amid reports of potential US troops on the ground in Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the Iranian military was ready to face them. “No, we are waiting for them,” Araghchi said when asked if Iran was afraid of a US invasion. “Because we are confident that we can confront them, and that will be a big disaster for them.”
Former Joint Chiefs chair on Iran conflict: ‘I worry about this getting drawn out’ - Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Mike Mullen said Sunday that he has anxiety around the potential for a lasting U.S. conflict in Iran — which has led to the deaths of seven U.S. service members as of Sunday. “We’ve got friends and allies out there. We’ve got the economy of the world, in great part, depending on the open waters at the Strait of Hormuz and how markets react to this. You’ve got a tourism, economic — livelihood in the region that’s actually completely stopped right now,” Mullen told ABC News’s Martha Raddatz on “This Week.” “So, there’s an awful lot in play that we can’t anticipate. And certainly, that was the case in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I worry about this getting drawn out. These wars just don’t end quickly. At least, they certainly haven’t in the last several decades,” he added. Last week, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran following weeks of American-Iranian tension. Iran retaliated shortly after by striking Israel and Gulf states, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia. U.S. Central Command (Centcom) announced on Sunday that a seventh U.S. service member had died in the Iranian conflict. Centcom said on social media that the service member died as a result of “injuries received during the Iranian regime’s initial attacks across the Middle East” on March 1. The service member had been “seriously wounded at the scene” of an attack from Iran in Saudi Arabia targeting American troops, per the command. On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated his warning of retaliation targeting the U.S. “If [President Trump] seeks escalation, it is precisely what our Powerful Armed Forces have long been prepared for, and what he will get,” Araghchi said on the social platform X. “Responsibility for any intensification of Iran’s exercise of self-defense will lie squarely with the U.S. administration,” he added.
Donald Trump, Pentagon give conflicting signals on end to Iran war - President Trump and the Pentagon are offering conflicting signals on how long the U.S. war with Iran will last, as officials in Tehran prepare to dig in for a longer fight and with the economic fallout from the clash hurting the U.S. and global economy. Trump on Monday suggested victory is in sight but with the caveat that the U.S. is not yet done hammering Iran. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said at a press conference at his Doral resort in Miami. He also stressed Washington is “achieving major strides toward completing our military objective, and some people could say they’re pretty well complete.” He listed off claims the U.S. military has wiped out Iranian forces, sunk its navy, destroyed its air force, targeted its drone and missile capability and disabled its radar and antiaircraft equipment. Asked how long the U.S. military “excursion” into Iran will last, Trump says it will end “soon,” but not this week. The Pentagon, however, was sounding a different tune earlier Monday. “We have Only Just Begun to Fight,” a Pentagon-run social media account posted Monday alongside a picture of a launched missile with the words “No Mercy” superimposed over it. “This is just the beginning—we will not be deterred until the mission is over,” an earlier post from the same account read, this time alongside a video of various strikes on what appeared to be Iranian targets. The U.S. military so far has struck more than 5,000 Iranian sites. Trump in recent days has signaled the war could soon come to an end after he demanded last week the country’s “complete and total surrender” and warned the U.S. could widen its attacks. In a Monday interview with CBS News just before his press conference at Doral, Trump said the war “is very complete, pretty much,” claiming that Iran has “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones.” That also differs from Trump suggesting last week that the war, which has entered its ninth day, could stretch to four to five weeks. Public sentiment concerning the war continues to wane, imposing big political risks for Trump in a midterm year that are surely on his mind. A majority of registered voters, 54 percent, disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, according to an NBC News poll conducted in the early days of the war. Forty-one percent of respondents said they approved of Trump’s handling of the situation. In other surveys, Americans have expressed opposition to the military action on Tehran altogether.
US and Iran Were Close to a Deal Before Trump Chose War - Iran has an “inalienable right” to enrich uranium for civilian use, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told the U.S. delegation with frustration in the final round of talks before the bombs started to fall on Iran.And the U.S. has an “inalienable right” to stop you, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff answered with hubris.Araghchi is right, and Witkoff is wrong. The U.S. and its partners have presented the public with a war that was caused by Iran’s refusal to compromise on its civilian nuclear program; however, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has “the inalienable right to a civilian program that uses nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.”The fact that Iran was enriching uranium for peaceful purposes has been verified by the multiple consecutive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that followed the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran and by the 2022 U.S. Department of Defense Nuclear Posture Review and, most recently, by the 2025 U.S. Annual Threat Assessment.Despite their “inalienable right,” Iran made the major concession of negotiating significant limitations on its nuclear program that could have met U.S. redlines. Instead, the negotiations were interrupted by bombs falling on Iran in an attack that was neither necessitated by the immediate need to defend against an attack nor sanctioned by the Security Council. Negotiations on Iran’s legal nuclear program were answered by an illegal war.The U.S. seems to have been willing to negotiate, if negotiation meant Iran capitulating to its demands. However, they seem to have been unwilling to negotiate, not only on guarantees against a nuclear weapons program, but on the demand that Iran give up its enrichment program entirely. It was the American demand that Iran could not enrich uranium to any level for the next ten years that finally triggered Araghchi’s frustrated cry that Iran has the “inalienable right” to enrich uranium for civilian use.Iran offered the Americans a compromise that could have been received by the U.S. as, what former Iranian nuclear negotiator [ret] Ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian called in an email correspondence, “a historical JCPOA PLUS deal.” But the U.S. said no.There is a long tradition of the U.S. passing up on peace plans and saying no, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine.There were reportedly three areas in which Iran was unwilling to sufficiently capitulate to American demands. The first was zero enrichment. The U.S. demanded no enrichment for the next ten years. Axios reports that, in its place, the “U.S. offered Iran free nuclear fuel for a civilian nuclear program.” When Iran refused, the U.S. said it was “a big tell.” Had the U.S. sent diplomats with a historical understanding of the issue they were negotiating, they would have known that there were other interpretations. Iran has always made clear that they would not accept a situation like the one offered because of bitter historical experience.On more than one occasion in the past, when Iran relied on others to provide its enriched uranium, the U.S. exercised its power to block it and deprive Iran of enriched uranium. When Iran began its nuclear program, it was only enriching uranium to the 3.5% required by its power reactors to produce energy. For the 19.5% enriched uranium needed for medical isotopes for imaging and treating cancer and kidney disease, Iran relied on an agreement with Argentina to supply it. When the uranium was used up, Iran requested that the IAEA help it purchase more under that body’s supervision, which Iran has the right to do as a signatory to the NPT. But the U.S. and Europe put up roadblocks and prevented the purchase.Two decades later, Iran again agreed in principle to a nuclear fuel swap that would send its low-enriched uranium out of the country to be returned as 19.5% enriched uranium for medical use. But it was a trick. The U.S. wanted all of Iran’s uranium to be sent out at once before any uranium would be sent back much later. The U.S. was trying to empty Iran of its uranium. When Iran offered a counterproposal of sending out smaller batches of low-enriched uranium while receiving simultaneous small batches of uranium for medicinal use, the U.S. ignored the offer and the deal died. When, one more time, Brazil and Turkey tried to broker a deal with similar simultaneous swaps, Iran agreed, but the U.S. ignored it and reprimanded Brazil and Turkey. On another occasion, when Iran turned to France for enriched uranium, the U.S. pressured them not to provide it.Iran has learned that relying on others to provide enriched uranium leaves them vulnerable to the U.S. cutting them off and leaving them with none. Hence the vow that Iran would never again yield their right to enrich their own uranium for civilian purposes.But Iran was willing to negotiate a deal that would ensure that there could never be a path for that low-enriched uranium to become the highly enriched 85% uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. They offered layered options. Mousavian catalogued them for me: “Iran had accepted coercion verification by the IAEA, to resolve all technical ambiguities, zero stockpile, dilute high-level enrichment, reduce enrichment level to below 5%, suspend the enrichment for some years and even to go for a regional consortium.” There were three options on the table. In the first, Iran was willing to put itself under maximum inspections, to convert its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, and cap its enrichment at the 3.67% needed for a civilian energy program.In the second, Iran was willing to limit their role in the enrichment cycle by becoming a member of a nuclear enrichment consortium. The consortium could include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps others. Enrichment would be capped at the 3.67% required for civilian use and monitored by the IAEA. Most importantly, a consortium would allow Iran to enrich uranium but deny it access to the full enrichment process by distributing various roles in the process across different member states. There are also reports that Iran proposed suspending enrichment for three to five years and then joining the regional consortium.In the most recent, according to Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, who was mediating the most recent talks between Iran and the United States, Iran “agreed not to stockpile excess nuclear material that could be used to build a bomb.” Since Iran would use all of its low-enriched uranium for civilian purposes, leaving none to stockpile for any further use, that would ensure “that Iran will never ever have the nuclear material that will create a bomb.” Albusaidi clarified that that meant “there would be zero accumulation, zero stockpiling and full verification… by the IAEA.” The pathway to a bomb was closed and a deal was “within our reach” when the bombs fell on Iran.
'It's Sickening': US Catholic Cardinal Calls Out White House for Social Media Posts Making Light of Iran War - -Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Archbishop of Chicago, has called out the Trump administration for posting social media videos that splice scenes from movies and video games with footage of US strikes on Iran.In a statement released by the Archdiocese of Chicago, Cupich referenced a video posted by the White House on Thursday, captioned “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY,” that showed scenes from popular movies and TV series along with strike footage.“A real war with real death and real suffering being treated like it’s a video game — it’s sickening. Hundreds of people are dead, mothers and fathers, daughters and sons, including scores of children who made the fatal mistake of going to school that day,” Cupich said, referencing the likely US strike on the Minab school in southern Iran, which massacred over 100 children. “Six US soldiers have been killed. They are also dishonored by that social media post. Hundreds of thousands displaced, and many millions more are terrified across the Middle East,” Cupich added.The Catholic leader said the “horrifying portrayal demonstrates that we now live in an era when the distance between the battlefield and the living room has been drastically reduced.” He also called out the “gamifying” of war and the new online trend of betting on conflicts.“What a profound moral failure, for gamifying strips away the humanity of real people. Let’s not forget, a ‘hit’ isn’t putting points on the board; it’s a grieving family whose suffering we ignore when we prioritize entertainment, and profit, over empathy,” he said.Cupich said that the US government is “treating the suffering of the Iranian people as a backdrop for our own entertainment, as if it’s just another piece of content to be swiped through while we’re waiting in line at the grocery store.”
Trump: Oil tanker crews must ‘show some guts,’ sail through Straight of Hormuz --President Trump is pushing oil tanker crews to “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz.“These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. … They have no Navy, we sunk all their ships,” Trump said, according to Fox News’s Brian Kilmeade, who recounted the president’s remarks during an interview.Kilmeade also said on “Fox & Friends” in comments highlighted by Mediaite that Trump told him “there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20 percent of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more.”On Monday, oil prices went above $100 per barrel amid the U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran. Brent crude went up by 25 percent, then fell to $96.94 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose by 28.3 percent.Stocks also sank Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 500 points following the opening bell. The S&P 500 index opened with a 0.9 percent dip, and the Nasdaq composite went down by 0.7 percent after the opening bell. Energy Secretary Chris Wright brushed off concerns on Sunday over the Strait of Hormuz’s closure during the U.S. conflict with Iran. “One large tanker has already gone through the straits with no issues at all. So as the general just described, we’re massively attriting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days,” Wright said on “Fox News Sunday.” “So we’ll be cautious. We’ll be careful, but energy will flow soon,” he added.
Trump says he’ll strike Iran ‘20 times harder’ than before if oil flow halted in Strait of Hormuz - President Trump on Monday threatened the Iranian regime against halting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, as gas prices back home rise amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” the president wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!” Trump added that his demand is a “gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use” the passageway.The Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Oman and Iran and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is one of the world’s most important chokepoints. In 2024, the equivalent of roughly 20 percent of global petroleum consumption flowed through the passageway, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But amid the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has closed the strait and threatened vessels attempting to pass through. In the last 24 hours, just two ships have passed through, down significantly from the typical 60 per day, according to hormuzstraitmonitor.com. That has resulted in energy prices rising across the globe, including in the U.S., less than eight months before the midterm elections, and with an electorate concerned about the cost of living.
"Risk Of Attack Is Too High": US Navy Refuses To Provide Escorts To Ships Transiting Hormuz Strait -One week after Trump announced that the US would cover insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and would provide them with US navy escorts, Reuters reports that the US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now. The U.S. Navy has held regular briefings with shipping and oil industry counterparts and has said during those briefings it is unable to provide escorts for the time being, three unnamed shipping industry sources told Reuters. They added that the shipping industry has been making requests almost daily during the calls for naval escorts through the strait. One of the sources said the Navy’s assessment during Tuesday’s briefing had not changed and that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced, which judging by images like the one below of a container ship in the Gulf today won't happen any time soon. The Navy's assessments spell continued disruption to Middle East oil exports and reflect a stark divergence from President Donald Trump’s statements that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway. Shipping along the narrow strait has all but halted since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran more than a week ago, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world’s oil supply and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022. Some ships - mostly Iranian VLCCs and Chinese tankers carrying embargoed products - have resumed transits with Iran vowing it would only attack western-linked ships, we reported earlier. The status quo may soon change, however: on Tuesday General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the US military has started looking at options to potentially escort ships through the strait, should it be ordered to do so. "We're looking at a range of options there," Caine told reporters at the Pentagon. A U.S. official told Reuters the U.S. military has not yet escorted any commercial ships through the strait. Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright deleted a post on X in which he said the Navy had successfully escorted one through. While there have been some voyages through the waterway in recent days, the majority of shipping traffic remains on hold with hundreds of ships anchored. Meanwhile, Trump has said repeatedly in recent days that the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. "When the time comes, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait, if needed. I hope it's not going to be needed, but if it's needed, we'll escort them right through,"
Democratic senator says US ‘seem to be’ on path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran - Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) left a Senate Armed Service Committee briefing on the Iran war Tuesday saying he believes the Trump administration is on a path to putting U.S. troops on the ground in Iran. “We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives,” the senator told reporters after the briefing. Blumenthal said he left the briefing “as dissatisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years in the Senate.” “I am left with more questions than answers, especially about the cost of the war,” he said. “My questions have been unanswered, and I will demand answers because the American people deserve to know.” President Trump has not ruled out putting boots on the ground in Iran, though it is far from clear he would do so. Putting U.S. soldiers in Iran would raise the stakes of the conflict, and the political risks for Trump and Republicans in an election year. The administration has offered shifting rationale for its objectives in the war ranging from preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons to regime change. Iran this week named a new Supreme Leader, and its regime has shown few signs of backing down. Blumenthal said he is “most concerned” about threats the conflict could pose to American lives and the potential for U.S. boots on the ground in Iran. The senator also warned of “the specter of active Russian aid” to the country’s regime. Russia reportedly supplied Iran with information that helped them target U.S. bases in the Middle East. Seven U.S. service members have died during Iranian counterstrikes in the region. “Literally, Russia seems to be aiding our enemy, actively and intensively with intelligence, and perhaps with other means, and China also may be assisting Iran,” Blumenthal said. “So the American people deserve to know much more than this administration has told them about the cost of war, the danger to our sons and daughters in uniform and the potential for further escalation and widening of this war, a war of choice made by this president, not chosen by the American people with potentially huge consequences to American lives,” he continued.
Witkoff Admits He Doesn't Know How Iran War Ends - US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff acknowledged on Tuesday that he doesn’t know how the war with Iran will end as US-Israeli airstrikes on the Islamic Republic and Iranian counterattacks continue. “I don’t know, Sara,” Witkoff told CNBC host Sara Eisner when asked how the conflict ends. “I know this, that President Trump is the wrong guy to go up against. That’s what I know.” Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, led the negotiations with Iran in the weeks leading up to the opening of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, which began days before more talks were supposed to be held, marking the second time within one year that Iran was attacked while engaged in negotiations with the US. After the war started, Witkoff claimed that during the first round of talks, Iranian officials said they had enough nuclear material to build 11 nuclear bombs and that they were “proud of it,” but a diplomat involved in the negotiations said that never happened. “I can categorically state that this is inaccurate,” a Persian Gulf diplomat involved in the negotiations told MS Now.Witkoff was referring to Iran’s stockpile of uranium that’s enriched to 60%, which is believed to be buried under rubble following the June 2025 airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. The night before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, Oman’s foreign minister, who mediated the negotiations, said Iran was willing to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium to reach a deal.
US-Israeli Strikes Hit Civilian Targets Across Iran - US and Israeli airstrikes have pounded civilian targets across Iran since the war began on February 28, damaging more than 19,734 civilian units, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS). The ICRS said on Tuesday that the figure includes 16,191 residential units, 3,384 commercial units, 77 pharmaceutical and medical centers, and at least 69 schools. The Human Rights Activists News Agency, or HRANA, a US-based NGO that’s very critical of the Iranian government, has also recorded many attacks on civilian targets and significant civilian casualties. On Monday night, the group said that since the war began, it has recorded 1,245 civilian deaths, including 194 children, and 189 military fatalities. Another 327 deaths remain unclassified. The HRANA said strikes on Monday included attacks that hit two museums, a medical center, a sports stadium, a car dealership, and several military targets. The group said a total of 40 civilians were killed over a 24-hour period. The worst incident of civilian harm came during the opening hours of the US-Israeli bombing campaign when an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, was hit and 175 people were massacred, the vast majority being schoolgirls and boys. All available evidence indicates the school was hit by a US Tomahawk missile. US and Israeli strikes pounded Tehran overnight Monday into Tuesday, with residents reporting it as the heaviest bombardment yet. “It felt like tens of fighter jets were flying right above our heads for 15 minutes straight at first, then a few minutes of pause before the next rounds of strikes came in,” Sima, a resident of Western Tehran, told Al Jazeera. “The ground and the windows and our hearts were shaking, but we took shelter in our bathroom and got through it,” added Sima, who didn’t use her real name due to security concerns.
Black Rain Falls on Tehran After US-Israeli Strikes Blow Up Oil Infrastructure - Black smoke filled the skies, and water mixed with oil rained down on the Iranian capital of Tehran on Sunday, following a US-Israeli strike that blew up oil facilities, marking a new escalation of the bombing campaign. The Israeli military said on Saturday that it struck “several fuel storage complexes” around the city, and according to Al Jazeera, a total of four facilities were hit. Iran’s oil distribution company said at least four of its employees were killed in the attacks.Footage from the aftermath of the strikes shows large fireballs and black smoke pouring from the sites that were hit. The lingering black smoke blotted out the sun, confusing Tehran residents who thought it was still night when they woke up.Iranian authorities urged residents to stay inside, warning of the spread of toxic chemicals. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that “significant quantities of toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur and nitrogen oxides” were released into the air by the US-Israeli strikes.Frederik Pleitgen, a CNN reporter in Tehran, posted several videos showing that oil is raining from the sky. “I want to show you something because the rain that’s coming down seems to be saturated or filled with oil, you can see that it’s completely black. Everything on the ground is black as well,” he said in one video. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that by “targeting fuel depots, the aggressors are releasing hazardous materials and toxic substances into the air, poisoning civilians, devastating the environment, and endangering lives on a massive scale.”
US Tries to Distance Itself From Israeli Strikes on Oil Infrastructure in Iran - --The US has tried to distance itself from Israel’s weekend airstrikes on oil infrastructure in Iran, which turned the skies over Tehran black and poured toxic rain mixed with oil on the city. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was asked about reports of US discontent over the Israeli strikes and insisted the US and Israel have different “objectives” in the war despite launching it together and the US military’s significant role in defending Israel from Iranian counterattacks. “Well, I would just start by saying Israel’s been a really strong partner in this effort. Where they have different objectives, they’ve pursued them. Ultimately, we’ve stayed focused on ours,” Hegseth said at a press conference on Tuesday morning. “But what Iran has felt is the power of the world’s two most powerful air forces. In that particular case, that wasn’t our strikes or that objective, or that wasn’t necessarily our objective,” Hegseth added.Later on Tuesday, Axios reporter Barak Ravid, a former Israeli intelligence officer, reported that the US had asked Israel to refrain from further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for several reasons, including concerns that it could lead to major Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure in Gulf Arab states and raise the price of oil.The report said that the US also hoped to “cooperate” with Iran’s oil industry after the war, similar to what it has done in Venezuela, but that objective is very unlikely as the Iranian government remains intact and is vowing to fight a long war. Sources also told Ravid that the US was concerned that the strikes on oil infrastructure hurt the Iranian public, though the bombing campaign has already killed more than 1,200 civilians.
Trump Threatens 'Consequences Never Seen Before' If Iran Mines the Strait of Hormuz - President Trump on Tuesday threatened Iran with “consequences never seen before” if its forces lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as the Trump administration appears to be scrambling on how to deal with the war’s impact on the global oil market. “If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!” the president added. Not long after the initial post, Trump took to Truth Social again to claim that US forces “have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow!” The president’s posts about the Strait of Hormuz came after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed in a now-deleted tweet that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the strategic waterway, a claim that turned out not to be true. The price of oil dropped after Wright’s post, then rose again after it was revealed to be false. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 31% of seaborne oil passed in 2025, is effectively closed and that any vessel wishing to pass must obtain Tehran’s permission.“The claim of an oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz with a U.S. military escort is utterly false,” Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of the IRGC’s Navy, said in a post on X on Tuesday. “Any passage of the US fleet and its allies will be halted by the net of Iranian missiles and suicide drones.”
Petraeus: Iranian mines in Strait of Hormuz create ‘real challenge’ for US military -Former CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus offered a frank assessment of the burgeoning conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Tehran’s decision to lay mines in the passageway has created a challenge for the U.S. militarily.Petraeus, who served as commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said in an appearance on NewsNation’s “On Balance” that Iran still had the capability to inflict damage in the strait despite U.S. strikes that weakened its navy. “We know in general terms that the U.S. has taken out over 50 of their vessels. But there are likely some ships left, smallish ones, that can still put mines in the water,” he told host Leland Vittert on Tuesday. “There are drones certainly that are left that could be problematic as well.” “They’re not going to sink a big ship, but if it gets ignited, you could have a very significant problem on your hand, and just a handful of mines in the water can be problematic,” Petraeus added.Centcom announced Tuesday that American forces “eliminated” 16 mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping channel that has emerged at the epicenter of the war amid growing concerns about the impact of a prolonged blockade on the global oil market. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine said during a briefing earlier Tuesday that the U.S. had made “substantial progress” toward destroying the Iranian navy in the first 10 days of the campaign. “U.S. Centcom continues today to hunt and strike mine-laying vessels in mine storage facilities. This work will continue,” Caine said, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.While the number of naval mines in Iran’s stockpile is not publicly known, estimates have put the figure at upwards of 6,000, many of which are produced by Iran, China or Russia, according to CBS News.
Burgum: Report Trump administration caught flat-footed on oil prices ‘completely fake news’ - Interior Secretary Doug Burgum dismissed a report that the Trump administration “miscalculated” the impact its military operations against Iran would have on the global oil market. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran at the end of February, oil futures have fluctuated dramatically, spiking by almost 20 percent on Sunday evening before reversing course late Monday afternoon. In an interview with Fox News’s Brian Kilmeade on Wednesday, Burgum called The New York Times report “completely fake news, obviously” and said the administration’s focus is on “driving down prices.” “American citizens need to know that U.S. energy, we’ve never been in a more dominant or secure position in the history of the country that we are right now with President Trump,” Burgum said. The Times cited a Feb. 18 Bloomberg interview with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in which he downplayed concerns of the economic impact of U.S. strikes on Iran. The U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury with Israel 10 days later. Wright cited last year’s war between Israel and Iran, which ended after 12 days when the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, in his interview last month with Bloomberg. “If you look back at the 12-Day War last year, that’s a pretty serious conflict with a major oil producer,” Wright told the outlet. “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down.” Trump and others in his administration have said the increase in oil prices is only temporary. However, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a loyal Senate ally, said gas prices could remain high for “a while” during an interview on Wednesday. The joint strikes from the U.S. and Israel have brought operations in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping channel, to a halt, effectively stopping a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Additionally, the Iranian military has targeted oil fields and refineries in the Gulf states in their counterstrikes, causing major disruptions to their export industries. Burgum told Fox News on Wednesday that Iranian strikes on oil refineries in Qatar and Saudi Arabia show “they’re losing.” “It shows desperation that they would do that,” the secretary said.
Trump taps oil reserves as Iran conflict spikes prices - President Trump plans to tap into the U.S.’s oil stockpile, releasing 172 million barrels of oil. Asked about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during a visit to Ohio, Trump told TV station Local 12, “I filled it up once, and I’ll fill it up again, but right now, we’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down.” Shortly thereafter, the Energy Department issued a press release saying the administration would release 172 million barrels starting next week. In a statement, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the release could take approximately 120 days. The announcement comes hours after the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which the U.S. is a member, said that collectively, its members would release 400 million barrels of oil as part of an effort to bring down prices, the largest such release ever. Wright said in his statement that the release would be part of the larger IEA effort. “I’m pleased to report that earlier today, the International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from various national petroleum reserves around the world,” Trump said at a rally in Kentucky. Oil prices have risen as Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil choke point. As of last week, the U.S. oil stockpile had more than 415 million barrels of oil. Former President Biden announced a drawdown of 180 million barrels from the reserve in 2022 to combat rising energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Republicans including Trump have criticized Biden for his move to take oil from the reserve, saying it should be used for military reasons rather than to lower prices.
Trump Says 'We Make a Lot of Money' When Oil Prices Go Up as His Iran War Makes Americans Pay More at the Pump - President Trump on Thursday tried to portray the increase in oil prices since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran in a positive light, saying the US makes more money when prices rise, though Americans are already paying significantly more for gas. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World. I won’t ever let that happen!” Trump added. NBC News noted that in the weeks and months leading up to the war, Trump repeatedly cited declining gas prices as a positive development in his second term. The day before he launched the war, the president was in Corpus Christi, Texas, and noted that the price of gas was below $2.30 per gallon in the area and even lower in other parts of the country. “I just left Iowa two weeks ago: $1.99. And then I passed another one: $1.85. It’s happening. It’s happening,” Trump said. According to GasBuddy, a tech company that tracks gas prices nationwide, on March 1, one day into the war, the national average price of gas in the US was $2.94 per gallon. As of Thursday, it stood at $3.61, a 23% increase in just 11 days. The price of oil has spiked as Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of all seaborne crude passed in 2025. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that only ships with permission from Iran can pass through the strike and it has continued to strike tankers with drones that attempt to make the transit.
‘Oh, boy’: Oil industry frets over Trump’s profit-minded Iran post - President Donald Trump may think his war in Iran is a boon for the oil industry — but his way of putting it is causing consternation. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,“ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday as crude prices rose to $95 per barrel, a 40 percent increase from where they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago. Trump’s post highlights the industry’s complicated relationship with the president — and its messaging conundrum. While oil companies are benefiting financially from the nearly $30-per-barrel run up in crude prices since the war started, executives are also worried that volatile prices are making business decisions difficult, and high prices will generate public backlash. “The idea that the industry profits from war and death is not one a VP of public relations wants to promote,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Trump’s post drew groans from some in the industry. “Oh, boy….” one energy industry strategist responded when shown Trump’s social media post. Trump’s message also feeds into a perception that oil companies are looking to gouge consumers, said a second industry official granted anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “This highlights the complicated relationship the oil industry has with the president,” the industry official said. “President Trump’s overarching concern is always the price at the pump — and the lower the better. There is also some notion that the oil and gas industry secretly works to raise prices, which is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the industry works on a global and transparent market basis.” Trump’s post also plays into some voters’ cynicism about business in general and the oil industry in particular, said Mark Mizruchi, a University of Michigan professor who focuses on the economic and political behavior of large American corporations. “The interesting thing about Trump’s statement is that he inadvertently stated a belief that a lot of people have — that something like this happens and the oil companies will make a lot of money,” Mizruchi said. “It probably didn’t occur to him that people — including in the industry — weren’t happy about that” statement.
UK Says US Troops Injured by Drone Attack on Base in Iraq as Pentagon Stays Quiet on US Casualties - British officials said on Thursday that US troops were injured in a drone attack on a base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, on Wednesday night, as the Pentagon has not been sharing information about all of the US casualties in the US-Israeli war against Iran.According to The Telegraph, a base housing US and British troops was targeted by a swarm of drones, and two were shot down by British air defense forces, but others got through and struck the facility. The report said the drones that hit the base in Erbil were likely launched from Tehran, though Iran-aligned Shia militias also claimed a series of drone attacks against US assets in Iraq on Wednesday.“Erbil and Baghdad were both struck a number of times last night with increasing coordination. We have personnel in Erbil who are currently helping with the defence of that base,” said Brig. Guy Foden, an officer at the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ), from where British overseas operations are overseen.“Last night, they shot down two UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] coming at the camp. But a number of UAVs did impact on the camp,” Foden added. He said that several US troops were injured, while another British officer, Lt. Gen. Nick Perry, downplayed the US casualties, saying the injuries were “nothing too serious.”Earlier this week, the Pentagon acknowledged that at least 140 US troops have been injured since the US and Israel launched the war, but the admission came after Reuters reported that as many as 150 US service members had been wounded. Before that, the Pentagon just acknowledged eight “severe” injuries and confirmed eight deaths, including seven US troops killed by Iranian attacks and one who died of an unspecified “medical emergency.”On Wednesday, CBS News reported that a March 1 Iranian drone attack on a US operations center in Kuwait that killed six US troops was much worse than the Pentagon disclosed. As of Tuesday night, more than 30 US troops wounded in the attack were still in the hospital.
Warren calls on State Department to provide more aid to Americans stuck in Middle East - Sen. Elizabeth Warren on Thursday questioned why the U.S. Transportation Command and the State Department were not doing more to get stranded American citizens out of the Middle East amid the war with Iran. There may still be tens of thousands of U.S. citizens stuck in the region, and the Trump administration has been too slow to act as violence spilled out of Iran into surrounding countries, the Massachusetts Democrat said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing. “Let’s be clear, the Trump administration chose this war. They planned this war for months, and they made no plans to safeguard hundreds of thousands of Americans in the region. There is no excuse for this,” Warren said. Americans reported feeling stranded in the region in the days immediately after war broke out. A State Department warning for U.S. citizens to “DEPART NOW” to Americans in 14 countries set off a scramble, with some saying they were left to fend for themselves. Amid the criticism, the State Department said last week they were ramping up flights for American to get out of the region. While President Donald Trump suggested earlier this week the war would end “very soon,” there is no immediate end in sight, and Americans in the region are trying to contend with an ever-evolving regional conflict. The State Department has published regular updates on the amount of Americans relocated out of the region since Trump announced the war with Iran on Feb. 28, and on Thursday a spokesperson said nearly 47,000 citizens had returned to the U.S. The State Department had completed more than two dozen charter flights, and at this point the number of seats offered on those flights outstrips demand, the spokesperson said. “While commercial flight availability across the region continues to improve, Department of State charter flight and ground transport operations continue to operate,” the spokesperson said without providing a name, responding to an email sent to the agency’s media inquiries account. Gen. Randall Reed, commander of TRANSCOM, testified at the Thursday hearing that his command had assisted in the airlift of hundreds of Americans out of the region. But Warren said the effort has fallen short. “What I’m trying to understand is why you’re not doing more,” Warren asked Reed. “Because I’m hearing from my constituents who are stranded there, who’ve been stranded there for two weeks and they’re asking for help, and they’re not getting help from the U.S. government.” While many Americans have left and some are choosing to stay in the region, others are still stuck. The State Department spokesperson said the department was “now working 24/7 to bring Americans home.” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., posted to X about a trip she took this week to the Middle East to help a family from her district that was stuck there. “The family I traveled here for are safely home. But then I learned about more families. Hundreds of families. Thousands. Still stranded,” Mace wrote. Congressional caseworkers, the aides who field inquiries from constituents, have similarly reported that Americans are feeling stranded and frustrated with the federal government’s response to the war. One Senate Democratic caseworker — who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she is not authorized to speak to the press — said she has heard from constituents in places like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel and Kuwait. Some are tourists, others are students or Americans in the region for work, in some cases with their families. “People there that are in the Middle East, just wanting to leave but having absolutely no way to leave, they are scared, they are terrified and they are feeling abandoned,” the caseworker said. “Their families here are scared and terrified and wondering why the U.S. government has not already gotten their loved one home.”
Report: US and Its Mideast Allies Have Fired More Than 1,000 Patriot PAC-3 Interceptors in Iran War - The US and its Middle East allies have already fired more than 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors using the US-made Patriot air defense system since the US and Israel launched the war with Iran on February 28, according to a report from Bloomberg. Lockheed Martin currently produces PAC-3 interceptors at a rate of about 600 per year, meaning the US and its allies have fired nearly two years’ worth of the munitions in just 11 days, highlighting the strain the war is putting on US military stockpiles. Lockheed Martin has said it will work to produce 2,000 PAC-3 missiles per year, but it will take years to reach that production level. US Army photo of a PAC-3 interceptor being fired PAC-3 interceptors cost between $3 million and $4 million apiece to produce, meaning the total cost of just PAC missile use in the war could be as high as $4 billion. The US has also used a large number of THAAD interceptors and has begun moving pieces of a THAAD system based in South Korea to the Middle East. It’s also working to deploy Patriot interceptors from its bases in the Asia-Pacific and elsewhere around the world for use in the war with Iran. CBS News reported on Wednesday that the US’s Gulf allies have said they will have to be more selective about which projectiles to shoot down amid dwindling supplies. Middle East Eye previously reported that the US’s Arab allies had requested more missiles but were being “stonewalled” by the US. Other US allies are worried that the war will impact US military aid, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been calling for NATO to provide more Patriot missiles. The Ukrainian leader said that since Russia invaded more than four years ago, Ukraine has received 600 PAC-3 interceptors. Trump administration officials have downplayed the concerns about dwindling air defense munitions, though they have also acknowledged the difficulty in intercepting Iran’s Shahed drones, which are produced at a much cheaper and faster rate than US interceptors.
CENTCOM Says It Lost a KC-135 Tanker Aircraft Over Iraq - US Central Command said on Thursday that it lost a KC-135 refueling tanker aircraft over Iraq and that a rescue effort is underway, suggesting it may have crashed. “US Central Command is aware of the loss of a US KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing,” the command said. CENTCOM said a second aircraft was involved in the “incident” but landed safely. The command said the incident didn’t involve enemy fire or friendly fire despite the raging war and frequent Iranian missile and drone attacks across the region. A US KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft in the Middle East (US Air Force photo) “Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely. This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire,” the command said. “More information will be made available as the situation develops. We ask for continued patience to gather additional details and provide clarity for the families of service members,” CENTCOM added. The incident marks at least the fourth manned US aircraft that has been lost during the war, as three F-15 fighter jets were shot down over Kuwait. According to CENTCOM, the F-15s were accidentally struck by Kuwaiti air defenses, while Iran claimed it had downed one of the US jets.
Four crew killed in refueling plane that crashed in Iraq: Pentagon - The U.S. confirmed Friday morning that four crew members were killed when a KC-135 military refueling plane was lost while flying over Iraq. Officials had earlier said the incident was “not due to hostile or enemy fire.” In a statement early Friday morning, the U.S. Central Command said the aircraft went down in western Iraq. “Four of six crew members on board the aircraft have been confirmed deceased as rescue efforts continue,” it said. “The circumstances of the incident are under investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.” The identities of the service members are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified, the statement added. Earlier, U.S. Central Command said two aircraft were involved, and that the accident occurred in friendly airspace. The second landed safely, the U.S. Central Command added. “The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury,” the U.S. Central Command said Thursday, referring to the war against Iran, which led to retaliatory strikes by Tehran across the Middle East. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of militias in the country backed by Iran, claimed responsibility for the downing of the U.S. aircraft in a statement posted on its Telegram channel. This is the fourth reported aircraft loss since the Iran war started, after three F-15 fighters were shot down by friendly fire from Kuwait’s air defenses. The KC-135, which cost $39.6 million in 1998 according to the U.S. Air Force, is normally used to refuel other aircraft in mid-air. The aircraft loss comes after Trump hinted that the war would not end soon. “We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time,” he said in a Truth Social post overnight, before calling on his followers to “watch what happens” to the Iranian regime on Friday. Meanwhile, Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, said Tehran would make the U.S. “sorry” for starting the war in Iran. “Trump says he is looking for a speedy victory. While starting a war is easy, it cannot be won with a few tweets,” Larijani said in a post on X early Friday. His statement followed remarks by Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, that the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” Khamenei also said all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should close immediately and warned that “those bases will be attacked,” in televised comments translated by Reuters.
U.S. has no clear exit strategy from Iran war: Russia's UK ambassador -- The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a “misadventure” whose goals and exit strategy remain unclear, Russia’s ambassador to the U.K. told CNBC. Andrey Kelin said Russia has “a lot of sympathy” with Tehran and said “the best end” to the escalating Middle East war is for it to “show only that they are senseless.”“We still are trying to understand, what are the goals of President Trump in this campaign. You know that lots of doubts have been expressed about the exit strategy that the American administration can have in this endeavour,” Kelin told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick in an interview recorded on Thursday.Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier this week, offering his “unwavering support” to Tehran and saying the country “has been and will remain the Islamic Republic’s reliable partner.”The war has been raging for two weeks, with heavy strikes reported across Iran’s capital city and shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted.The White House has said the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity and its navy, sever its support for proxies in other countries and ensure Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon.The White House said on Thursday these objectives “have remained unchanged unambiguous, and consistent” since the operation began on Feb. 28.“We have a lot of sympathy with Iran. We have a lot of sympathy as well with the Persian Gulf states, there is no doubt at all. As for the beginning, I cannot understand the position of when everybody is blaming Iran,” Kelin said.″[The] crisis has started with the, as I have said, with Israel and U.S. aggression against Iran and it was in the middle of talks, of course,” he continued, referring to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program held in the Swiss city of Geneva last month.“My president discussed this issue with the president of the United States, and we can make a good contribution by the way to finish it, to wrap it up.”Alongside China, which has received millions of barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway, Russia stands as one of Iran’s most influential diplomatic partners.“We have a strategic partnership with Iran. We are not allied in military terms, but we have a strategic partnership, and we have got a lot of communication in different fields,” Kelin told CNBC.Asked to clarify whether Moscow has any military links with Iran, Kelin replied: “I do not comment on that side.”
Middle East Crisis: Putin shares proposals to end Iran war 'quickly' in call with Trump, says Kremlin - Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, held a telephonic conversation where they discussed the prevailing situation in the Middle East, the Kremlin said late Monday (local times). During the phone call, Putin put forward several proposals aimed at ending the ongoing war between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition "quickly," it added. The Kremlin said the call was initiated by Washington. The conversation lasted for nearly an hour, Putin's foreign affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov said, adding that the two leaders had a "specific and useful" exchange of views.
Who bombed the Iranian girls’ school, killing more than 170? What we know - Al Jazeera --As the United States-Israeli war on Iran closes in on two weeks, one specific attack stands out as the bloodiest incident of the conflict so far. On February 28, during the opening hours of the assault on Iran, a missile struck a girls’ school in southern Iran, killing more than 170 people – most of them schoolgirls. Since then, Israel and the US have tried to distance themselves from the attack, even as evidence mounts that the US was responsible for the killings. To critics, the bombing of the school has become emblematic of the horrors of the war that the US and Israel have unleashed, and that Iran has responded to by launching thousands of missiles and drones not just at Israel and US facilities across the region, but also at Gulf neighbours who have tried hard to not get sucked into the conflict. So what do we know about the totemic incident that has shaped, for many, the early days of the war? The girls’ school, Shajareh Tayyebeh, was located in the city of Minab, near a base belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It was hit by a missile on February 28 at approximately 10:45am local time (07:15 GMT), a peak hour for classroom activity. The blast destroyed the two-storey building, causing the roof to collapse on students and teachers inside. At least 170 people, most of them children, were killed. Dozens of others were injured. The school is located in Minab, in Iran’s strategic Hormozgan province, which overlooks the Strait of Hormuz and hosts several IRGC naval facilities. While Iran immediately attributed the strike to the US-Israel coalition, both nations denied responsibility. Satellite images showed the school intact earlier that morning. US and Israeli air raids had begun across Minab and other parts of Hormozgan that morning. On February 28, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shared a photo of the attack, which he said destroyed the girls’ school and killed “innocent children”. “These crimes against the Iranian People will not go unanswered,” Araghchi wrote in a post on X. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also slammed the “blatant crime” and urged action from the United Nations Security Council. On Thursday, Baghaei said that US missile attack on Minab school was a ‘double-tap’ strike. A “double tap” refers to two strikes on the same target in quick succession, the first intended to hit the primary target and the second aimed at those who arrive to assist victims or respond to the initial blast. Footage from the scene suggests the school was likely hit by a Tomahawk missile. Preliminary investigations suggest the school may have been hit by a US missile because of a targeting error, though the exact circumstances remain under investigation. Analysts say the strike may have been caused by outdated targeting information, as the school is on the same block as buildings used by the IRGC’s navy and the site of the school was originally part of the base. For years the school had been separated and had its own walls and entrances. “It seems that the United States Central Command did not keep its target list up to date,” Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, told Al Jazeera. “Apparently, the building shifted some years ago from military use to the school and the Central Command targeting cell did not pick up that change,” he added.
US Responsible for Bombing Iranian Elementary School and Massacring Over 100 Children: Preliminary Investigation - The US is responsible for bombing an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, during the opening hours of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, a strike that massacred 175 people, the vast majority being young schoolgirls and schoolboys, according to a preliminary US military investigation.People briefed on the investigation told The New York Times that it appeared that US Central Command had created target coordinates for the strike using outdated information from the Defense Intelligence Agency.The school building was previously part of a nearby Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base but was separated and turned into a school sometime between 2013 and 2016, meaning the US military may have used information that was over a decade old. The US military has been using Artificial Intelligence to help with targeting, but the Times report said it appeared the strike on the school was likely the result of “human error.”The Times said it reviewed satellite imagery showing that watchtowers that once stood near the building had been removed, three public entrances were opened to the school, ground was cleared, play areas, including a sports field, were painted on asphalt, and walls were painted blue and pink.Middle East Eye reported that the school was hit by two separate strikes and that the second one hit children who were sheltering in a prayer hall after their parents were killed following the first attack. “When the first bomb hit the school, one of the teachers and the principal moved a group of students to the prayer hall to protect them,” an Iranian Red Crescent medic told MEE.“The principal called the parents and told them to come and pick up their children. But the second bomb hit that area as well. Only a small number of those who had taken shelter survived,” the medic added.So far, there’s been no confirmation or acknowledgement from US officials that the school was struck twice. The Times report said that based on its analysis, the IRGC base was struck again within two hours of the initial strikes.It’s been clear since the day after the bombing that the US was likely responsible for the massacre at the school, and footage shows what appears to be a US-made Tomahawk missile striking the IRGC base during the attack. But President Trump has tried to pass the blame onto Iran and even falsely claimed that Iran has Tomahawk missiles, though when pressed on his claim, the president admitted he “didn’t know enough about it.”Trump was asked on Wednesday about the Times report and evidence that the US military was responsible, and claimed he didn’t know about it. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth wouldn’t back up Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible but has also refused to comment on the massacre besides saying it’s “under investigation.” Throughout the US and Israeli bombing campaign, Hegseth has said the US military is operating without “stupid rules of engagement” and “without mercy.”
How AI ‘kill chains’ are speeding up the US war on Iran - Artificial intelligence is reshaping how the US military makes decisions in war – a shift clear in Iran, where the Pentagon says it struck more than 2000 targets in just four days. The unprecedented tempo of targeted attacks has been driven in part by AI systems that sift the torrents of intelligence data from drones, satellites and other sensors, generating strike options far faster than traditional human-led planning. The conflict also marks the first battlefield use of “frontier” generative AI models, with AI tools widely used by civilians – from office workers to doctors and students – helping commanders interpret data, plan operations and provide real-time feedback during combat. Over the past two years, the US Department of Defence has extensively integrated AI-enabled technology within its operations. The primary operating system for the Pentagon’s data is Palantir’s Maven Smart System, which alongside Anthropic’s Claude model forms a real-time data analysis dashboard for operations in Iran. “The reason the frontier models are so important – the technological shift in the last year and a half – is they have moved from summarisation to reasoning,” said Louis Mosley, UK and Europe head of Palantir. This ability of AI models to reason – or to consider a problem step by step – had enabled a “big jump in the volume of decisions and the speed at which [military personnel] can take those decisions” during complex war-fighting operations, he said. Yet, the same technologies that promise to accelerate military decision-making are also prompting concerns about oversight. The debate has intensified following a recent dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon over the boundaries of military AI, underscoring the sensitivities around deploying frontier models in combat. The bombing of a girls’ primary school in Minab, in southern Iran, further illustrates the lethal risks of quickly generated or improperly vetted targets, although it remains unclear if and how much AI systems were involved in that operation. As the US and Israel sought to degrade regime institutions, they have hit more than 20,000 non-military buildings, according to Iran’s Red Crescent, including 17,353 that were residential. “The girls’ school [bombing] feels to me like the building was on a target list for years. Yet, this was missed, and the question is how?” said a former senior defence official for the US military, who asked not to be identified. “A machine? A human? I would like to believe AI can point out flaws like this, in theory. Unfortunately, combat is never as pristine as the technology is designed to be.” “If we look at the campaign against ISIS, the coalition struck around 2000 targets in the first six months of the campaign in Iraq and Syria,” said Jessica Dorsey, who researches the use of AI and international humanitarian law at Utrecht University. “Now compare that with reports about this campaign, where the same numbers of strikes [by the US] occurred within just the first four days. That illustrates the scale and speed of target execution.”
They Lied About The School Bombing In Iran, And They're Going To Keep On Lying - Caitlin Johnstone -- An ongoing internal US military investigation has reportedly found the United States responsible for a Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian girls’ school which killed at least 175 people at the beginning of the US-Israeli onslaught. Remember all the hasbarists and empire apologists who said it was a misfired Iranian missile that hit the school. Remember how aggressively and uniformly they all pushed this lie, including the president of the United States. Then understand that they’re going to keep lying like this throughout the entire war. Remember Secretary of War Pete Hegseth boasting about how the US has gotten rid of “stupid rules of engagement” intended to protect civilians, tough talking about how “This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.” Those words land a bit different now that we know he was talking about mass murdering little girls. In hindsight I guess it shouldn’t have surprised anyone that the guy who wrote a book called “American Crusade” immediately changed his title to Secretary of War and initiated a crusade against the Muslim world.
Iran appears to have conducted a significant cyberattack against a US company, a first since the war started -- An Iran-linked hacker group has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack of a medical tech company, in what appears to be the first significant instance of Iran hacking an American company since the start of war between the countries.The company, Stryker, produces a range of medical equipment and technology, and is headquartered in Michigan. Historically, Iran has conducted some of the most infamous “wiper” cyberattacks on national enemies, aiming to simply erase all data on a computer’s networks. Victims include Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, in 2012, and the Sands Casino in 2014.Since the war started, some established hacker groups sympathetic to Iranian leadership have claimed minor attacks, but most have been relegated to briefly altering the appearance of a website and none have appeared to have had major impact. Some tech and cybersecurity companies, including Google, and the email cybersecurity company Proofpoint, have told NBC News that they have largely seen Iran’s hackers conducting espionage related to the war.But that appears to have changed Wednesday, with what appears to have been a different type of attack that also deleted information from devices. One Stryker employee, who requested to not be identified because they are not authorized to speak for the company, said that employee’s work issued phones stopped working, dragging work and communications with colleagues to a standstill.Handala Team has claimed responsibility for the Stryker hack in statements posted to its Telegram and X accounts. The group routinely brags about its exploits on the social media platforms, which have in recent days taken down previous versions of their accounts.Specifics of how the hack was conducted are not clear. But public evidence of the hack points to the likelihood that hackers gained access to the company’s Microsoft Intune account, which the employee confirmed Stryker uses. From there, Handala appears to have wiped some employee’s devices back to factory settings, one expert said. “They seem to have obtained access to the Microsoft Intune management console. This is a solution for managing corporate devices,” said Rafe Pilling, the director of threat intelligence at the cybersecurity company Sophos, which has tied Handala to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence agency.“One of the features is the ability to remotely wipe a device if it’s lost/stolen etc. Looks like they triggered that for some or all of the enrolled devices,” he said. Microsoft’s website describes the remote wipe feature as “commonly used when a device needs to be retired, repurposed, reset for troubleshooting, or securely erased if lost or stolen.”In a statement published to its website Wednesday, Stryker said that the disruption was due to a cyberattack, but that its own systems were not directly hacked and that ransomware — a common type of cybercrime that can also significantly disrupt companies’ networks — was not a factor.
Ron Paul on Trump on Iran: 'We're Winning!' US Intel: 'No, You're Not.' – (video)Yesterday President Trump continued his “victory lap” on the Iran war, bragging that we’ve already won the war and that he is ready to end it. Meanwhile a new Intelligence Community report was leaked assessing that the Iranian government is holding steady. Meanwhile oil and LNG prices are shooting up and several tankers attempting to pass the Hormuz Strait have been hit by Iran.
‘Drill Baby, Drill’ Ain’t Going To Save the GOP From a War-Driven Affordability Pounding --by David Stockman --There is more history percolating up in the current Iranian madness than just another failed Forever War. It’s going to be the end of the Trumpified GOP too, and that means that a motley menagerie of Dem statists, spenders, regulators, lifers, wokests and outright freaks are likely to be swept back into power in the elections just ahead. Sadly, that will likely mark the end of capitalist prosperity and constitutional liberty in America as we have known it, too. The truth is, only the old time GOP committed to free markets, fiscal rectitude, sound money, small, decentralized government and non-intervention abroad had any chance at all of reversing the 20th century tide of insolvent, inflationary, debt-encumbered Big Government. But that GOP of yesteryear was already deader than a doornail after three terms of the Bush’s spending, bailouts and money-printing – even before the Trumpified GOP delivered the coup de grace. That is, by going full retard on spending, borrowing, money-printing, protectionism, nativism and random government regulation and subsidization on the specious grounds of “national security”. On another occasion we will get into a fuller amplification of all the manifold statist sins of the now thoroughly Trumpified GOP. But in the meanwhile, it might be well to recognize that Donald Trump unaccountably rode into office a second time against all reason because, and only because, AFFORDABILITY!Since services inflation peaked in Q1 2023, the decline in headline CPI has been driven overwhelmingly by the collapse of global oil prices and gas pump prices especially. To wit, the headline CPI figure is still up at a +2.84% per annum rate, but even that is due to a negative -3.18% inflation rate for gasoline and +1.83% rate for groceries. By contrast, the part of the CPI that the Fed can impact most directly in the short-run is the above displayed CPI for services (shelter, medical care, education, household and business services etc.). Yet despite its cooling from the peak rate of 7.1% in Q1 2023, the annualized increase since then has still posted at +4.07% per annum and is now heading higher as the Fed’s printing press begins to again spill excess fiat credit into the financial system. In this context, it appears that the Donald and his MAGA men believe that their “drill baby, drill” mantra will shield the GOP from a rising headline inflation rate and “affordability” backlash at the polls next November. Yet they could not be more completely and fatally wrong. That’s because the price at the pump in Podunk Iowa is set by the supply and demand balance in the global crude oil and product markets, not by domestic production levels. But as we will amplify in detail in Part 2, any further modest gains in domestic production would not even begin to off-set the large shortfalls that are virtually certain to materialize in the 103 million barrel per day global petroleum market, as the Persian Gulf goes up in flames under the bombs and missiles that will be flying from both sides for weeks and weeks yet to come. In any event, drill, baby drill has caused domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas to soar since the production bottom was reached in 2007-2009 period. But as we will show in Part 2, global and domestic petroleum prices have not remotely tracked the production paths shown below. Any further crude oil production increases from the current 13.5 million barrels per day might amount to a few hundred thousand b/d at best. And that would be a drop in the bucket of the global 103 million barrels per day market, which stands to loose a substantial fraction of the 20 mb/d that transits thru the Strait of Hormuz and especially out of the Iranian energy fields.
Trump eases Russian oil sanctions as Iran war sends prices spiking -The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, a boost to the Kremlin as Washington tries to contain energy prices sent soaring by the American-Israeli assault on Iran. President Vladimir Putin’s team welcomed the move to ease penalties that were imposed over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and pushed Friday for the U.S. to go further. The decision caused dismay in Europe, where officials feared it would give a timely boost to the Moscow war machine on their doorstep as attention shifts to the Middle East.The announcement failed to immediately calm oil prices, which have spiraled since Tehran effectively closed the vital Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint and began attacking energy facilities across neighboring Gulf countries.The international benchmark of Brent crude rose again overnight, sitting just above $100 a barrel as of 6 a.m. ET. Markets worldwide slipped, with U.S. stock futures down following slumps across Asia and Europe.Announcing the move Thursday evening, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that until April 11 countries would be able to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.He called it a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” and claimed it would “not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.” (However, he later told NBC News’ British partner Sky News that it was “an inevitability” and “unfortunate” when asked if Moscow would gain from the decision.)
Senator Chuck Grassley slams Trump for lifting Russia oil sanctions amid Iran gas price spike - At least one Republican senator is criticizing the Trump administration’s moves to lift restrictions on Russian oil amid a gasoline price hike spurred by the conflict in Iran. Sen. Chuck Grassley (Iowa) wrote in a post on the social platform X, “Temporarily removing sanctions 4 Russian oil is [the] wrong move.” He added that money from sales of Russian oil “fuels Putins war& prolongs suffering in Ukraine.” His comments come in response to the Trump administration’s Thursday night move to temporarily lift some sanctions on Russian oil. Previously, the administration gave India permission to buy Russian barrels as the cost of oil rose after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. In recent years, sanctioning Russia after its invasion of Ukraine has had bipartisan support, with both the Trump and Biden administrations imposing penalties. Another Republican lawmaker, Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.), also criticized the Trump administration’s latest move. “This action helps financially prop up Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This sustains Russia’s invasion,” he wrote on X. The moves to lift sanctions are part of a larger suite of policies the Trump administration is taking in an attempt to tamp down soaring oil and gas prices.
Carney joins European leaders in criticizing US easing of Russian oil sanctions - --Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joined the leaders of Germany and Norway on Friday in criticizing the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil, exposing a public split between Washington and key NATO allies. At a joint press conference in Bardufoss, Norway, where the three leaders were attending the 14-nation NATO exercise Cold Response, Carney, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argued that sanctions relief would weaken efforts to force Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The three NATO leaders were publicly breaking with Washington over the Trump administration’s decision to ease some sanctions on Russian oil. The split came as the U.S. took part in NATO wargaming in Norway’s Arctic region meant to demonstrate allied resolve against Russia as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Merz said he was surprised to wake up Friday to the U.S. decision, “which was obviously taken in D.C. last night.” Echoing Støre, the German leader added: “We should put more pressure on Russia.” Carney aligned Canada with that position. “Entirely agree. Canada’s position is to maintain sanctions on Russia … including on the shadow fleet, which is moving this oil,” the prime minister said, as the three leaders spoke against a backdrop of heavy military armament. “There’s been very tight cooperation between Russia and Iran, at great cost to the people of Ukraine and a great threat to peace and security in Europe. And this group, under the leadership of the two gentlemen to my right, and a broader coalition — Coalition of the Willing — has stood up to that,” Carney added. The U.S. temporarily lifted some of its Russia sanctions late Thursday in an effort to bring down energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East drags on. It would allow the delivery and sale of Russian oil stranded at sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the decision on Friday as “not very logical.” “The lifting of sanctions means that [Russia] will receive more money and there will be more drone attacks” in the Middle East, Zelenskyy said, standing alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. “Russia will get money for its war machine, and there are a lot of drones that are built on Russian soil to destabilize the Middle East,” he added.
Trump thinks Russia leader Putin is helping Iran - President Donald Trump on Friday said he believed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is helping Iran in its war against the United States and Israel. Trump’s comment came in a radio interview with Fox News host Brian Kilmeade, and a week after the president lashed out at Fox News reporter Peter Doocy for asking him at the White House about reports that Russia was aiding Iran. Kilmeade asked Trump on Friday, “You think Putin is helping them?” Trump replied, “I think he might be helping them a bit, yeah.” “I guess, and he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?” Trump continued. “Yeah, we’re helping them also,” Trump said, referring to Ukraine, which has been at war against Russia since being invaded in early 2022. “So he [Putin] says that, and China would say the same thing, you know,” Trump told Kilmeade. “It’s like, ‘Hey, they do it, and we do it, in all fairness,’” Trump said. “They do it, and we do it.”
Trump says U.S. ‘obliterated’ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island but didn’t ‘wipe out’ oil infrastructure -- President Donald Trump said on Friday that he directed the U.S. Central Command to carry out a bombing raid, hitting military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island. “Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” the president wrote in a Truth Social post.He added that he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island.”Kharg Island is a small strip of land in the northern Persian Gulf. It’s widely considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets.The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran. Analysts have said that the prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.
Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal -- President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to order the destruction of Iran's main oil loading facility on Kharg island to force Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz. Trump said in a social media post that the US military "totally obliterated every MILITARY target" on Kharg but "for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island." Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision," Trump posted. "Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it!" Trump's statement — as other US official statements — fall short of explicitly acknowledging that Iran has effectively enforced a near halt on oil and LNG shipments from the Mideast Gulf through Hormuz since the US-Israel attacks began on 28 February. The Kharg terminal is in fact the only oil loading terminal in the Mideast Gulf from which some tankers continued to sail through Hormuz, most recently on 10 March. About 25pc of globally traded crude volumes and 20pc of LNG supply is unable to leave the Mideast Gulf. Trump in remarks to reporters on Friday evening said again that the US naval escorts for commercial ships transiting Hormuz will begin "very soon". But senior US military officials on Friday declined to provide a timeline for reopening the strait of Hormuz or explain how the Pentagon will accomplish the task. It remains unclear if and how Tehran will respond to Trump's threat. The extent of destruction at Kharg following the US raid cannot be independently verified. Iran's military has targeted some production facilities and oil fields across the Mideast Gulf, but Tehran so far has directed most attacks at ports and ships across the Mideast Gulf. The Trump administration is under pressure to respond to higher oil prices as a result of the war. April Nymex WTI rose by $2.98/bl to $98.71/bl on Friday, its highest level in more than three years.
Iran threatens to attack UAE cities after US strikes on Kharg Island -Iran’s military on Saturday threatened to attack multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that it claims the U.S. used in its attack on Kharg Island, a vital economic outpost.The claim made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters was that the U.S. launched its attack from “ports, docks and hideouts within” UAE cities. They did not specify which cities they would strike.“[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE,” the IRGC said in a statement on Iranian state media, per Al Jazeera. President Trump on Friday said the U.S. “obliterated” every military target on Kharg Island without destroying the island’s oil infrastructure for “reasons of decency.” He added that the strikes on the island were “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East.”“However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.The attack came one day after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered the strait remain closed. The Strait of Hormuz acts as the waterway for around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gasoline exports. The closure, a result of the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, has led to a surge in gas and oil prices.
Pentagon Moves More Troops, Warships to the Middle East - Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has approved a request from CENTCOM (U.S Central Command) to send additional Marines and warships to the Middle East, according to three U.S officials. CENTCOM, which is responsible for all U.S forces in the Middle East, requested an amphibious ready group and an attached Marine expeditionary unit, which generally consists of several warships and 5,000 Marines.The request comes as Iran escalated its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, including allegedly mining the Strait, which is a key waterway in the global economy. As a result, global trade has been disrupted, oil prices have risen and the situation has presented itself as a major political challenge for President Trump.The Marine detachment, along with the Japan-based USS Tripoli, will be joining Marine forces currently present in the region in supporting the Iran operation, according to the officials. Despite the buildup, Hegseth dismissed Iran’s attacks on the Strait as “pure desperation” and responded to reporters asking about the safety of passing through the Strait that they “don’t need to worry about it” and that it’s “something we are dealing with.”The 5,000 Marines will join 40,000 to 50,000 American soldiers already in the Middle East. Those soldiers are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. So far, at least 14 American soldiers have been killed since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran two weeks ago.On Tuesday, Reuters reported speaking with US officials who said over 150 American troops have been wounded during the war, including several serious injuries.While the role of the Marine expeditionary unit is unclear, the White House has floated drastically escalating the conflict by attempting to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The President has also refused to rule out placing boots on the ground in Iran.
We Are The Villains In This Story -- Caitlin Johnstone --Nobody wants to believe they’re the villain in the story. Nobody wants to believe their government is run by psychopaths who are inflicting unfathomable evils upon populations around the globe in order to rule the world. It’s much nicer to believe you’re the Good Guys. Much easier to sit with the idea that your government might make an innocent mistake here and there, but overall is a driving force for the good of humankind, and is certainly superior to the villains it makes war with. That’s a fiction, though. It’s a comfortable lie. A fairy tale that westerners tell themselves to avoid a profoundly uncomfortable truth. No other nation comes even close. Every nation that you have been taught to hate, every leader you have demonised, every government that you call “regime”, none come close to these numbers. N. Americans will hear this and still believe they’re the good guys. Irredeemable place. The truth is that we are the villains. We are the terrorists. We are the tyrants. We are the evil regime. Our soldiers aren’t out there defending our country, they’re out there murdering people for defending their country. They’re not fighting for freedom and democracy, they’re fighting for money and power.Daniel Crimmins from the US Army 3rd Infantry Division wrote the following about the Iraq War in 2015: “Then you realize you haven’t seen anything to support the idea that these poor fuckers are a threat to your home. You look around and you see all the contractors making six figure salaries to fix your shit, train Iraqis, maintain the ridiculous SUVs the KBR dicks ride around in. You consider the fact that every 25mm shell costs about forty bucks, and your company has been handing those fuckers out like shrapnel flavored parade candies. You think about all the fuel you’re going through, all the ammo and missiles and grenades. You think about every time you lose a vehicle, the Army buys a new one. Maybe you start to see a lot of people making a lot of money on huge amounts of human suffering.“Then you go on leave, and realize that Ayn Rand has no idea what the fuck she’s talking about. You realize that Fox News and Limbaugh and John McCain don’t respect you or your buddies. They don’t give a fuck if you get a parade or a box when you get home, you’re nothing to them but a prop.“Then you get out, and you hate the news. You hate the apathy, and you hate the murder being carried out in your name. You grew up wanting so bad to be Luke Skywalker, but you realize that you were basically a Stormtrooper, a faceless, nameless rifleman, carrying a spear for empire, and you start to accept the startlingly obvious truth that these are people like you.” That’s the reality right there, folks. We can wake up and start living in reality, or we can remain asleep in the fiction.It’s time to wake up to the reality that western civilization is a depraved dystopia where most people are sleepwalking in a propaganda-addled stupor under an empire that is fueled by human blood. And it’s time to awaken to the fact that as westerners it is our duty to tear that empire down brick by brick, for the sake of our children and grandchildren, and for the sake of our fellow man.
Opposing "Both Sides" In This War Is Crazy Imperialist Nonsense, And Other Notes -- Caitlin Johnstone --People tell me, “It’s possible to oppose this war AND oppose the Iranian regime. You can denounce BOTH.”Sure you can. But you shouldn’t.You should not do this. You should not be a pro bono Pentagon propagandist in the middle of a US war of immense consequence. You should not do the hasbarists’ job for them. Make them do their own job themselves.This war already has a huge number of propagandists screaming “REGIME BAD” at the top of their lungs in order to ensure that the slaughter continues. You don’t need to add your voice to the chorus, and you shouldn’t. You should not help them manufacture consent for more human butchery. You should be using your voice solely and exclusively to end the butchery your government and its allies are inflicting on human beings.All your “REGIME BAD” sloganeering accomplished was paving the way to the carnage you see before you today. Your self-righteous denunciations of the Iranian government failed to expand the rights of a single Iranian woman or LGBTQ individual. All you accomplished was helping to grease the wheels for a war of unfathomable horror, ensuring that all Iranians now live under more fear and misery than ever before.If you live under the western empire, you have an ethical obligation to use your voice responsibly in that context. You don’t get to just irresponsibly feed into an active war propaganda campaign by regurgitating the same regime change narratives about an empire-targeted country as the US and Israeli governments, and then pretend this doesn’t make you culpable for the consequences of your actions. If your words help grease the wheels of the war machine, then you bear partial moral responsibility for what the war machine does with your assistance. You don’t get to just pretend that responsibility doesn’t exist. The families who are being torn apart with the help of your pro bono war propaganda efforts do not care about your anarchist or Trotskyist “all tyranny is equally bad” political philosophy or how good your virtuous purity posturing makes you feel about yourself. All they experience is the consequences of your actions.As a westerner, your one and only duty is to oppose the depravity of the western empire. That’s your only job. Don’t lean out the window of the Empire of Perpetual Bloodlust to wag your finger at empire-targeted countries in the global south. It’s obnoxious.Curb the murderousness of your own government and its allies. THAT’S your job. If you get your job done, THEN come talk to me about how bad and wrong some random government in west Asia looks to you. Until then, shut the fuck up and do your job.
Trump officials erupt at CNN over report on Strait of Hormuz closing - White House officials on Friday lambasted CNN for a report that suggested the U.S. was caught off guard by Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a surge in gas and oil prices globally. CNN reported that the Pentagon and the National Security Council underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the strait, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the story “100% FAKE NEWS” and “garbage.” “THE TRUTH: The Pentagon has been planning for Iran’s desperate and reckless closure of the Strait of Hormuz for DECADES, and it has been part of the Trump Administration’s planning well before Operation Epic Fury was ever launched,” Leavitt wrote in a lengthy post on the social platform X. “The idea that Chairman Cain and Secretary Hegseth weren’t prepared for this possibility is PREPOSTEROUS,” she continued, referring to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “The President was fully briefed on it, and a goal of the Operation itself, to annihilate the terrorist Iranian regime’s navy, missiles, drone production infrastructure, and other threat capabilities is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait.” She added that the reporting was a “complete disgrace” and the Trump administration “will keep fighting back against it.” CNN later added a clarification to the story that reads: “This story has been updated to reflect additional developments and clarify that top Trump administration officials briefed lawmakers on long-standing military plans to address a major disruption to the Strait, according to one official, but that multiple sources familiar with the session said there was no indication there were any near-term solutions.” Leavitt reacted to the clarification and called it “pathetic.”
Talks To Advance Trump's Gaza Plan on Hold Since Start of US-Israeli War Against Iran - Talks to advance President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza have been on hold since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran, Reuters reported on Monday. The US and Israel launched the war about 10 days after President Trump convened the first meeting of the so-called “Board of Peace,” a body he formed that’s meant to oversee the ceasefire in Gaza, which Israel has constantly violated with daily attacks on Palestinians. At the “Board of Peace” meeting, Trump said the US and other countries would provide billions of dollars in funds to rebuild Gaza, but no significant developments were announced, as the implementation of his peace plan was already stalled before the Iran war. Under the US plan, an “International Stabilization Force” is meant to deploy to Gaza to replace IDF troops, who still occupy more than 50% of the Palestinian territory. But the ISF still hasn’t materialized, and Indonesia, the one country that was ready to send troops to Gaza, is saying that it will quit the board if it doesn’t benefit Palestinians. The other major impediment to implementing the peace plan is the US and Israeli demands for Hamas to fully disarm amid continued Israeli attacks. Hamas’s position is that it won’t lay down its weapons until there are steps toward a Palestinian state, though it has signaled flexibility on the issue, suggesting it could “freeze” or store its weapons under Arab oversight. A Hamas official confirmed to Reuters that the talks on implementing the peace deal have been frozen. The report also said that the Civil Military Coordination Centre, a US-led military base in southern Israel meant to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, had scaled back to minimal operations over concerns that it could be targeted by Iranian missiles.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine awaits White House sign-off on US drone production deal (AP) — Ukraine is awaiting White House approval for a major drone production agreement proposed by Kyiv last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday, as countries scramble to modernize their air defenses after the Iran war exposed shortcomings. The proposed U.S.-Ukraine deal would cover various types of drones and air defenses that operate as a single system capable of protecting against swarms of hundreds or even thousands of Iranian-designed Shahed drones and missiles, Zelenskyy said in a message on social media. “We have not yet had the opportunity to sign this document,” he said. Russia has fired tens of thousands of Iranian-designed Shahed drones at Ukraine since it invaded its neighbor just over four years ago. It launched a swarm of more than 800 drones and decoys in its biggest nighttime barrage. Iran has responded to joint U.S.-Israeli strikes by firing the same type of drones at targets in the Middle East. Ukraine has pioneered the development of cut-price drone killers, some of which cost a few thousand dollars, that have rewritten the air defense rule book. The conflict unfolding in the Middle East might prompt American officials to sign the drone production proposal, Zelenskyy said. Ukraine is keen to lock in future foreign support for its ongoing effort to thwart Russia’s invasion, and drone production agreements could bring Kyiv some diplomatic leverage in negotiations with Moscow. U.S.-mediated talks seeking to stop Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II are on hold due to the Iran war.
Rubio designates Afghanistan as ‘state sponsor of wrongful detention’ - Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday designated Afghanistan as a “state sponsor of wrongful detention” and urged the ruling Taliban to release two U.S. citizens he said are “unjustly detained.” “Today, I am designating Afghanistan as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. The Taliban continues to use terrorist tactics, kidnapping individuals for ransom or to seek policy concessions. These despicable tactics need to end,” Rubio said in a release. “It is not safe for Americans to travel to Afghanistan because the Taliban continues to unjustly detain our fellow Americans and other foreign nationals,” he added. Rubio also called on the Taliban to release Dennis Coyle, Mahmood Habibi and “all Americans unjustly detained in Afghanistan now and commit to cease the practice of hostage diplomacy forever.” Coyle, 64, was detained in January of last year without charges by the Taliban General Directorate of Intelligence, according to a website run by his family. At the time, Coyle was “legally working to support Afghan language communities as an academic researcher” and has still not been charged with a crime, his family said. The State Department declared last June that Coyle was wrongfully detained. “Dennis has been held in near-solitary conditions, requiring permission even to use the bathroom, and without access to adequate medical care,” Coyle’s family said. “His family is deeply concerned for his health and well-being. … Dennis’s elderly mother, Donna, and his three sisters—Amy, Patti, and Molly—miss him profoundly. This past year has been marked by absence and grief.” In August of 2022, the Taliban’s General Directorate of Intelligence abducted Habibi, an American citizen who was born in Afghanistan, and his driver from their vehicle in the capital of Kabul, according to the State Department. Habibi, 38, was previously Afghanistan’s director of civil aviation and worked for the Kabul-based telecommunications company Asia Consultancy Group, according to the FBI. The bureau, which is seeking information regarding Habibi’s disappearance, notes that the Taliban detained 29 other employees of the company and has released all but Habibi and one other. Habibi has not been heard from since his arrest, while the Taliban has not provided information on his whereabouts or condition, according to the State Department and FBI. The Taliban retook power in Afghanistan in 2021, upon the U.S. military’s chaotic withdrawal from the country after two decades of war under Trump and former presidents Bush, Obama and Biden.
US Launches Its 43rd Airstrike of the Year in Somalia - News From Antiwar.com - US Africa Command announced in a press release that its forces launched an airstrike in Somalia on Sunday, March 8, the first known US strike in the country since the day the US and Israel launched the war with Iran.AFRICOM said that the airstrike targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region about 44 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso. As usual, the command offered no other details about the attack.“Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” AFRICOM said. The US backs the local Puntland government in its fight against ISIS fighters based in caves in a remote mountain region, but the US-backed forces have not released any recent statements about military operations.The last airstrike in Somalia announced by AFRICOM was launched on February 28, the same day the US and Israel began bombing Iran. There appears to have been a lull in US strikes in Somalia since then, though AFRICOM sometimes doesn’t announce strikes until days or even weeks after the fact.The March 8 strike marks at least the 43rd time the US has bombed Somalia this year. AFRICOM is still on track to break its annual record for total US airstrikes in Somalia, which it set at 124 strikes last year as President Trump oversaw a major escalation of the US air campaign in the country.
US Southern Command Kills Six in Latest Boat Strike - - US Southern Command announced on Sunday that its forces blew up another alleged drug-running boat in the waters of Latin America and killed at least six people, marking the first known US boat strike since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran.SOUTHCOM said that the strike targeted the small vessel in the Eastern Pacific, and the command provided no evidence to back up its claim that the boat was targeting drugs, something the Pentagon has never done since launching the bombing campaign in September 2025.Video of the strike released by US Southern Command. SOUTHCOM described the six people it killed as “narco-terrorists,” a term used by the Trump administration to justify conducting extra-judicial executions at sea for an alleged crime that doesn’t receive the death penalty in the US. According to a count from Airwars, the strike brings the total number of people killed in the bombing campaign to 157. Airwars classifies all the deaths as civilians since they are non-combatants and posed no threat to the US military at the time of the attacks.The last boat strike announced by SOUTHCOM was launched on February 23. The bombing campaign against small boats is part of a US military campaign dubbed “Operation Southern Spear,” which also involved the January 3 attack on Venezuela to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Cuba confirms talks with U.S. — but warns an agreement will take time -- Cuba’s government has held talks with Donald Trump’s administration, the country’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, said on Friday. It confirms speculation that the two countries were talking after U.S. President Trump renewed his threat of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, saying the communist-run Caribbean island was in “deep trouble.” “These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions, through dialogue, to bilateral differences that exist between the two nations,” Díaz-Canel said, according to a readout posted on social media by Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla. “There are international factors that have facilitated these exchanges,” Díaz-Canel said. The country is facing a worsening economic crisis. The U.S. has imposed an oil blockade on the island since January, shortly after its ally and a key provider of oil, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, was seized in an extraordinary military operation. A massive blackout last week left millions on the island without power. At a press conference on Friday, Díaz-Canel also warned that negotiations were “long processes” that require willingness and channels for dialogue, saying “All of that takes time,” according to CBS News.
Democrats file war powers resolution to prevent Trump from attacking Cuba without approval - Senate Democrats have filed legislation that would stop the U.S. from going to war with Cuba without congressional approval as President Trump has threatened a “takeover” of the country. Democratic Sens. Tim Kaine (Va.), Ruben Gallego (Ariz.) and Adam Schiff (Calif.) on Thursday filed the war powers resolution, which could receive a vote by the end of the month. The resolution comes as Trump has said the U.S. could carry out a “friendly” or “not friendly takeover” of Cuba, predicting the collapse of the 67-year communist rule under pressure from the U.S. “Only Congress has the power to declare war under the Constitution, but [Trump] operates with the belief that the U.S. military is a palace guard, ordering military action in the Caribbean, Venezuela, and Iran without Congress’ authorization or any explanation for his actions to the American people,” Kaine said in a statement to The Hill. “We shouldn’t risk our sons and daughters’ lives at the whims of any one person.” Democrats have repeatedly used war powers resolutions to try to limit or curtail Trump’s attacks on countries including Venezuela and Iran. So far, Republicans have mostly backed the president, with no such legislation passing. Democrats have already filed five different resolutions directing the administration to remove U.S. troops from military hostilities against Iran, and they plan to force Republicans to repeatedly debate and vote on the conflict on the Senate floor unless they agree to hold public hearings on the conflict. A resolution sponsored by Kaine to halt military action in Iran failed last week in a vote that fell largely along party lines. Trump said earlier this week that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was negotiating with Cuba’s leadership amid an energy crisis in the country made worse by a U.S. blockade of the island.
Trump calls Canadian PM Mark Carney 'future Governor of Canada,' reviving Trudeau insult - President Trump on Tuesday quipped about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney becoming the “future Governor of Canada,” reviving an insult previously hurled at his predecessor Justin Trudeau over the president’s push for America’s northern neighbor to become the 51st state. “I’m working with Governor Gretchen Whitmer [D-Mich.] on trying to save The Great Lakes from the rather violent and destructive Asian Carp, which is rapidly taking over Lake Michigan, and all of the beautiful surrounds,” Trump wrote in his Tuesday Truth Social post. “I’ll be asking other Governors to join into this fight, including those of Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, New York and, of course, the future Governor of Canada, Mark Carney, who I know will be happy to contribute to this worthy cause,” he added. Whitmer has been working with Trump to address the issue of Asian Carp fish since last year, when she was at the White House for a meeting on the topic but found herself in front of the press during a “surprise” appearance at one of the president’s executive order signings. The Michigan governor is in close contact with her counterparts in Canada and has been subject to a heated back and forth between Trump and Carney on a range of initiatives, including the U.S.-Canada bridge, which the president previously threatened to close. Trump and Carney’s relationship has been fraught at least in part due to the president’s jokes about wanting to make Canada part of the U.S. Earlier this year, Trump pulled an invitation for Canada to join his Board of Peace after leaders in Toronto shared hesitancy about the group’s mission. Carney has also slammed the U.S. strikes on Iran, describing the conflict as a “failure of the international order” after urging middle powers to unite after declaring a “rupture” to the world order at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Trump tariffs: Refunds to companies should go to workers as bonuses, raises, Greer says American companies that end up getting up to $165 billion or so in refunds for President Donald Trump’s newly voided “reciprocal” tariffs should give that money to their workers as bonuses or raises, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday.Greer’s suggestion, made in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” comes as hundreds of American importers, including Costco and FedEx, have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for the money they paid in tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in a 6-3 vote on Feb. 20.A U.S. Customs and Border Protection official told a Court of International Trade judge in a filing on Thursday that development of an online system that will process refund claim requests is 70% completed.While that system remains under development, the judge’s prior order that CPB begin refunding the tariffs with interest remains suspended.“If I were these companies, and somehow they get this windfall, the most important thing and the smartest thing they should do is give it as bonuses to their workers,” Greer told CNBC on Friday.
Speaker Mike Johnson floats using reconciliation to address alleged fraud in blue states Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Tuesday floated the idea of passing a sweeping spending package aimed at targeting what he described as fraud, waste and abuse in Democratic-led states. Johnson said during a news conference at the House Republican retreat in Doral that he’s been a “champion for reconciliation as one of the important tools in the toolbox.” “I think that we can come together and envision a Venn diagram as I do — what are those handful of issues that are in the center of those concentric circles that is something that every Republican can agree on, that is great things for the country,” Johnson said. “I think the central theme of all this is we’re going to continue … working to lower the cost a bit for everyone because it’s a central issue, and also to stand up fraud, waste, abuse, and you’ve seen the fraud that’s been put on display in states like Minnesota. California is being audited for some of their fraud, some of the big blue states, I think they’ve got serious problems. We can use potentially reconciliation as a vehicle to address some of that as well,” he added. Republicans on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee just last week grilled Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and state Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) over their handling of a fraud scandal within Minnesota’s social services programs. President Trump has made the scam, and the fact that many of those convicted were of Somali descent, central to his immigration crackdown in Minneapolis. And in his State of the Union address last month, he announced a broader “war on fraud.” Reconciliation packages are often used by the majority party in Congress because they can get around a Senate filibuster, which generally requires 60 votes.
Blue states sue Trump administration over new race-based reporting requirements for colleges -Seventeen Democratic-led states sued the Trump administration on Wednesday over new race-based reporting requirements for universities targeting admissions, financial aid and student performance data. The lawsuit is challenging the new “Admissions and Consumer Transparency Supplement” (ACTS) survey that requires schools to provide years of admissions and student data broken down by race and other aspects to ensure schools aren’t engaging in affirmative action. It is a big change from the basic information the federal government has collected from schools over the years for the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. The lawsuit says “the sheer amount of data sought through the ACTS survey would place a considerable burden” on colleges. The blue states argue the reporting requirements are costly and will be used as a tool by the administration to launch politically motivated investigations. The attorneys general of the states also argue the high demand of information will make it difficult for schools to produce usable data to the government on such short notice. “The Trump Administration is on a fishing expedition — demanding unprecedented amounts of data from our colleges and universities under the guise of enforcing civil rights law,” said California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who represents one of the lead states in the lawsuit. “This is the same administration, I’ll remind you, that gutted the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Civil Rights, leaving thousands of civil rights complaints and investigations in limbo. This latest sham demand threatens to turn a reliable tool into a partisan bludgeon. California is committed to following the law — and we’re going to court to make sure the Trump Administration does the same,” Bonta added. The other states involved are New York, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin and Washington. The Hill has reached out to the Education Department for comment. The states say without court intervention schools will go through a costly process that could lead to unusable data and more leverage for the Trump administration to target institutions. If universities refuse, they will face other government penalties.
Eric Swalwell: Staffer flew to Colombia to return hearing aid to deported boy -Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) on Monday said one of his staffers flew to Colombia to return a hearing aid device to a 6-year-old who was deported alongside his mother. “As we stand here, my staff has just landed in Columbia, and is placing the hearing devices back in the boy’s ear,” the California lawmaker said at a Monday press conference. “He was able to do that with the help of the community who rallied to get his devices and personal belongings. So I thank my staff, and I thank the community for coming together,” Swalwell added.Last week, Lesly Rodriguez Gutierrez was detained alongside her son, Joseph, during a routine check-in with immigration officials, according to local outlet KWU2. The family was then sent to Colombia, their country of origin, without being given a chance to obtain Joseph’s hearing aids, according to their attorney. Swalwell said his office is working with the Families Council to help the family to the United States under humanitarian parole, so Joseph can return to his school.“What happened here was not about public safety. How does ruining the life of a six-year-old deaf child make our community or our country be safer? It doesn’t. It makes the country darker,” Swalwell said on Monday. The family’s attorney, Nikolas De Bremaeker, said Rodriguez Gutierrez was “pleading with Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to allow her to get the assistive devices that her six-year-old deaf child desperately needs to live,” at the Monday press conference.
Trump, Bondi sued over TikTok deal -- Two investors sued President Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday over the administration’s approval of a deal that saw TikTok spun off into a separate American-owned entity in order to continue operating in the U.S. Zhaocheng Anthony Tan, a shareholder in Google’s parent company Alphabet, and Garrett Reid, a Meta shareholder, argue the deal violated a law requiring TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to divest from the app or face a U.S. ban. “For the law to mean something, it must be followed, even—perhaps especially—by the President. Respondents have violated the statute and subverted the will of Congress. Petitioners bring this case to ensure that such violations, and such subversion, do not continue,” the lawsuit, filed by the Public Integrity Project, reads. TikTok officially spun off its U.S. business in late January. The new entity is majority owned by American investors, with Silver Lake, MGX and Oracle serving as managing investors and each taking a 15 percent stake. ByteDance maintains a 19.9 percent stake. Oracle is tasked with providing security for the new U.S. TikTok and retraining a copy of the recommendation algorithm on U.S. user data. “In short, under the announced deal, ByteDance would still control all the essential elements of TikTok,” the lawsuit argues. “Such a deal would subvert the very purpose of the TikTok Law, as ByteDance could continue to push Chinese propaganda and censor the content it does not like, exactly the harm that the law was intended to prevent.” Tan and Reid contend that, as investors in competing companies, they suffered financially from the deal’s approval, which created a “legal impediment to [their] financial recovery.” The deal came to fruition about a year after the divest-or-ban law was set to take effect. After taking office last January, Trump quickly signed an executive order delaying enforcement of the measure as he sought to reach a deal to keep TikTok available in the U.S. He pushed back the deadline several more times in 2025, which the lawsuit also argues violated the law. In September, the president announced the administration had reached an agreement for a TikTok spinoff, and he quickly signed an executive order declaring the deal a “qualified divestiture” under the law.
Hudson River NJ-NY Rail Tunnel Faces New Halt Without Federal Funds - Construction on the planned $16 billion rail tunnel under the Hudson River could halt again within two to three months unless federal funding resumes, the project’s developer warned last week, according to Bloomberg.The project, led by the Gateway Development Commission, would build a new rail tunnel linking New Jersey and Manhattan for Amtrak and New Jersey Transit trains. It would also allow rehabilitation of the existing tunnel, which opened in 1910 and is in urgent need of repairs. Gateway says the broader project would expand rail capacity between the two states and generate about $19.6 billion in economic activity.Funding for the project has been in dispute for months. The US Department of Transportation has withheld funds since October, prompting Gateway to sue last month to force the release of the money. New York and New Jersey filed a similar lawsuit.Bloomberg writes that some payments resumed after a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to release reimbursement funds the agency had requested. Since the ruling last month, Gateway has received about $254 million. The federal government had suspended payments while reviewing whether the project complied with a new administration policy banning contracting requirements tied to race or gender.Still, Gateway officials say the funding interruptions threaten construction progress. A previous stoppage between Feb. 6 and Feb. 22 temporarily laid off about 1,000 construction workers and added “million of dollars in additional costs,” Gateway chief financial officer Pat McCoy said in a court filing.“We will have no choice but to stop work again if the federal government does not continue to disburse the funds that are committed to the project,” Gateway Chief Executive Officer Tom Prendergast said in a statement Tuesday. “This project is too important to delay. That’s why we’re doing everything possible to regain consistent and predictable access to all our federal funding so we can keep our workers on the job and deliver the reliable, modern rail transit Americans deserve.”Congress has already approved funding for the project, including $11 billion in federal support and $4 billion in loans to be repaid by New York, New Jersey and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Amtrak is expected to contribute another $1 billion.
Trump’s farming ally sounds alarm about fertilizer costs amid Iran war - The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling on President Donald Trump to dampen the Iran war’s shocks to the market for critical agricultural supplies — which are landing as farmers confront major economic headwinds.Military action in the Middle East has disrupted fertilizer shipments and energy markets just ahead of American farmers’ spring planting season, the farm bureau’s president, Zippy Duvall, warned in a letter to Trump on Monday.“It really is a national security issue,” Duvall told reporters. “Our farmers across the country are heading into spring planting, and they’re facing one of the toughest economic environments that we’ve seen in decades.”The farm bureau represents nearly 6 million families and is a key Trump ally in the agriculture industry. But the group warned that the Trump administration risks provoking even more financial uncertainty for farmers if it fails to prioritize the delivery of key products.
The White House gets more involved in permitting talks - White House officials are increasingly engaged in permitting talks between Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill at a time when energy prices are becoming centerpiece of the brewing affordability wars. In recent weeks, President Donald Trump’s legislative affairs team and the National Energy Dominance Council — an entity designed to bolster U.S. production — have become more involved in the congressional deliberations, according to both a White House official granted anonymity to speak freely and Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). The dynamic shows how much both parties and the president’s aides want to get long-running permitting reform talks across the finish line even in an election year. “We’ve been engaged with them the whole time, but I would say they are more advanced and more engaged,” Capito said recently of her interactions with the White House. Two top Democrats — Environment and Public Works ranking member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-N.M.) and Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) — have been boycotting the talks since the administration move to halt construction of offshore wind projects. Whitehouse and Heinrich agreed to reengage last week after the Interior Department said it was processing permits for solar and onshore wind ventures. Courts have also ruled against the offshore stop-work orders. “Seeing permits continuing to be approved by the administration is critical for ensuring that talks can continue,” the Senate Democrats said Thursday. “Further mischief will undo our willingness to resume negotiations.” But even though formal negotiations have been on ice, lawmakers from both parties had continued informal talks and expected deliberations to resume. The White House was similarly interested in getting the dealmaking back on track. In a statement this weekend, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said the administration has achieved “incredible executive reforms to streamline and modernize the permitting process in America, but we need legislative permitting reforms to unlock much-needed critical energy projects. We are working closely with our partners in Congress to drive these reforms, which will help lower energy costs for Americans.” Lawmakers have been engaged in permitting reform negotiations since passage of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act but have only secured incremental successes. And this year’s coming midterms and competing priorities only adds to the difficulties of a deal. Still, conversations with roughly a dozen lawmakers, lobbyists, administration officials and advocates have shed light on how the moment could be ripe for legislation that would — more or less — accelerate environmental reviews, restrict litigation, protect permitted projects and make it easier to build out transmission and pipelines.
Trump’s repeal of national forest logging limits advances - The Trump administration’s proposed repeal of logging restrictions in roadless areas of national forests has landed at the White House for review. Officials propose to lift the roadless area conservation rule on about 44 million acres of the roughly 59 million acres where it applies across the national forest system. State-level roadless-area rules would remain in place in Colorado and in Idaho, where Republican Sen. Jim Risch negotiated the compromise with the Forest Service when he was the state’s governor in 2006. The review by the White House Office of Management and Budget is a key step toward releasing the proposed rule for public comment and eventually preparing a final rule. The proposal was submitted Friday, OMB reported.
The National Park Service race to rewrite history becomes a slog - The Trump administration’s campaign to remove National Park Service exhibits that “inappropriately disparage” historical figures is bogged down more than nine months after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum set it in motion. The sheer volume of park signs, panels and museum exhibits flagged by park rangers because they mentioned topics like slavery, climate change or violence against Native Americans overwhelmed the Trump administration from the beginning, said three people familiar with the process used to evaluate potential changes, granted anonymity because they feared retribution. “They bit off way more than they could chew,” one of those people said. But even as parks rushed to meet Interior deadlines, NPS last year dissolved in just a few months a team of experts created to decide if the material flagged by parks had violated President Donald Trump’s prohibition on excessively “negative” portrayals of U.S. history, said two of the people familiar with the process. Many park personnel on the ground now are unsure if NPS will soon demand changes at many parks or leave things as they are, said a park superintendent, who was granted anonymity because they are not allowed to speak to the media. The effort has reached a “nebulous” phase, the superintendent said, with some parks moving forward with edits and others still waiting for changes to be approved. While some exhibits have been altered or removed — most dramatically when NPS in January abruptly took down an exhibit about former President George Washington’s slaves at a Philadelphia site — the vast majority of parks have blown past several Interior Department deadlines to remove material or put up new content, said the superintendent and one of the people familiar with the internal NPS process. Elizabeth Peace, an Interior Department spokesperson, did not answer questions about who at Interior is making decisions on the flagged materials and whether more would be changed. When asked about the review team, she said that “the characterization that the review effort was ‘disbanded’ is incorrect.” “Parks conducted initial assessments at the local level in collaboration with tribes and community partners where needed, and elevated questions to the Department where appropriate,” Peace said in a statement. “The Department provided feedback, and where updates were warranted, edits were made consistent with professional standards and consultation requirements.”
Donald Trump tells House Republicans: SAVE America Act will ‘guarantee the midterms’– President Trump on Monday pushed for the passage of a GOP voting requirements bill, telling House Republicans that enacting the legislation will “guarantee the midterms” and reiterating that he won’t sign any other bills until it gets passed. “It will guarantee the midterms. If you don’t get it, big trouble,” Trump said at the House GOP’s annual issues conference in Florida. “The people are demanding it. Every time I go out, save America! Save America! We want the SAVE America Act! That’s all they talk about. They don’t talk about housing. They don’t talk about anything. That’s what they talk about. And if you send it up there, you will win the midterms and you will win every election for a long time,” Trump added. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act would require proof of citizenship to register to vote in elections and the presentation of an ID to cast a ballot. It cleared the House in February on a 218-213 vote but has stalled in the Senate, where Democrats argue it would create new barriers to voting. The measure would need support from at least some Senate Democrats to overcome a filibuster. Trump also urged House Republicans to draft a new version of the bill that would include additional provisions, such as “no mail-in-ballots except for illness, disability, military or travel” and the prohibition of transgender athletes playing in women’s sports. “If you could, if I could ask the people in this room, to go for the gold. We are going for the gold,” Trump said. “We’re not going for the bronze. We’re not going to sign a watered-down version like it’s been sent up there. Let’s go for the gold, and let’s just not accept anything else. I will tell you what, I’m willing to just sort of say I’m not going to sign anything until this is approved.” Trump called for the bill’s passage in a Truth Social post over the weekend, saying he “will not sign other Bills until this is passed.”
John Thune rejects Trump on SAVE Act: ‘The votes aren’t there for a talking filibuster’ --Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on Tuesday bluntly rejected President Trump’s call to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act by forcing Democrats to deploy a talking filibuster to oppose it, stating “the votes aren’t there for a talking filibuster.” Thune poured water on the proposal to make it tougher for Democrats to block the legislation, which would require people to show documented proof of citizenship to register to vote, by requiring them to actively hold the Senate floor in debate. Thune argued there are not enough votes in the Senate to change the filibuster rules. “The votes aren’t there, one, to nuke the filibuster, and the votes aren’t there for a talking filibuster. It’s just a reality,” Thune said Tuesday. “I’m the person who has to deliver sometimes the not-so-good news that the math doesn’t add up, but those are the facts and there’s no getting around it.” The GOP leader made his comments after Trump told Republicans at an issues conference in Doral, Fla., that passing the SAVE Act through the Senate is his “No. 1 priority” heading into the midterm elections. “It will guarantee the midterms. If you don’t get it, big trouble,” Trump warned. “The people are demanding it. Every time I go out, save America! Save America! That’s all they talk about. They don’t talk about housing,” Trump said, alluding to the housing reform bill currently on the Senate floor. Trump has threatened not to sign into law any bills passed by Congress, with the possible exception of legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security, until the Senate approves the SAVE Act.
GOP leader John Thune quashes Donald Trump push to reform filibuster for SAVE Act -Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told GOP colleagues Tuesday that they don’t have the votes to pass a House-approved voting reform bill through the Senate by forcing Democrats to use a talking filibuster to oppose it, rejecting President Trump’s full-court press. Senate Republicans at a Tuesday lunch meeting discussed the prospect of forcing Democrats to actively hold the floor for days — or even weeks — of continuous debate to make it as hard as possible for them to block the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which Trump called his “No.1 priority” at an issues conference with House Republicans on Monday. Trump warned in Florida on Monday that passing the SAVE Act is critical to helping Republicans keep control of Congress in November. “It will guarantee the midterms. If you don’t get it, big trouble,” he said. Democrats counter that there have only been a few instances of immigrants who are in the country illegally voting in federal elections in recent years and say the claims of widespread fraud are unfounded. Trump has ramped up pressure on Senate GOP leaders to embrace the talking filibuster by not following through on his pledge to endorse a candidate in the heated Senate Republican primary battle between Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Thune and other Republicans have lobbied Trump intensely to endorse Cornyn, who they think has a better chance of winning the general election, but Trump hasn’t yet done so. Asked about speculation that the White House is slow-walking the endorsement in Texas because of Trump’s disagreement with Senate Republicans over the talking filibuster, Thune acknowledged he was concerned about it. “Yeah, I mean, that’s probably not a linkage that is in anybody’s best interest because voting on the SAVE America Act is something we can do but passage is not guaranteed,” Thune said. “You have to make political decisions independent of what the final disposition of that might be on the floor.” Senate proponents of the talking filibuster strategy, such as Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), argue that it’s the best way to pass the SAVE Act and stave off what they and Trump warn could be massive fraud in the 2026 midterm election. They hope the debate will become so tiring that Democrats will eventually relent and allow the measure to pass by a simple majority vote.
DNC sues to find out if Donald Trump will deploy federal officers to election sites -The Democratic National Committee (DNC) sued the Trump administration on Tuesday, alleging that several agencies failed to adequately respond to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests pertaining to any plans to deploy federal agents at election sites. The lawsuit alleges that the DNC sent close to a dozen FOIA requests to the Justice Department (DOJ), Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Defense Department (DOD) in October “concerning potential deployment of federal agents and troops to polling places, drop boxes, and election offices.” “Nearly five months later, the DNC has received neither substantive responses nor responsive documents, not even a list of documents withheld under statutory exemptions,” the suit added. Late last month, DHS told secretary of states across the country that the agency would not deploy federal officers to the polls after President Trump expressed support for nationalizing elections ahead of the midterms. The DNC, in its Tuesday lawsuit, pointed to the president’s past remarks, which have drawn opposition on both sides of the aisle. “The Republicans should say, ‘We want to take over — we should take over the voting — the voting in at least many, 15 places,’” Trump told former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino in an interview last month. “The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.” At the time, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told The Hill that the president “cares deeply about the safety and security of our elections – that’s why he’s urged Congress to pass the SAVE Act and other legislative proposals that would establish a uniform standard of photo ID for voting, prohibit no-excuse mail-in voting, and end the practice of ballot harvesting.” The DNC’s Tuesday lawsuit also highlighted the FBI’s execution of a January search in Fulton County pertaining to the 2020 election records. “These and many other actions have raised serious concerns among voters across the country that the President will order armed federal agents or troops to polling places, drop boxes, and election offices, in violation of” U.S. law “and will send FBI agents or Justice Department officials to interfere with the orderly administration and certification of elections,” the lawsuit claimed. DOD told The Hill Tuesday that it does “not comment on ongoing litigation.” “The DNC is squandering their already scare resources on frivolous lawsuits that will have no impact on voters in November,” a Justice Department spokesperson said in a statement when asked about the complaint. “Baseless conspiracy theories like this are probably why recent reporting about the DNC describes the organization as ‘dysfunctional.’”
Economic research group NBER cuts ties with Larry Summers after Epstein revelations - The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has cut ties with former Treasury Secretary and Harvard professor Larry Summers amid the ongoing fallout over his relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. The Journal cited an email from the organization’s president, James Poterba, that stated Summers was “no longer an NBER affiliate.” The organization reportedly told the outlet that an ad hoc committee recommended his appointment as a research associate be terminated after reviewing his conduct. Founded in 1920, the NBER is widely considered the world’s leading economic research institution. Founded in 1920, the NBER is widely considered the world’s leading economic research institution. Its network of more than 1,800 academic economists includes 50 Nobel Prize winners and 13 individuals who have chaired the President’s Council of Economic Advisers.A page on the NBER website highlighting Summers’s research papers was still active as of Tuesday afternoon; however, his name no longer appears in the list of affiliated scholars. The organization is the latest to distance itself from Summers after documents revealed he maintained a relationship with Epstein even after he pleaded guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution and related charges in 2008.Summers received a lifetime ban from the American Economic Association in December, roughly two weeks after he stepped back from teaching at Harvard as the university investigated his conduct.“I am deeply ashamed of my actions and recognize the pain they have caused. I take full responsibility for my misguided decision to continue communicating with Mr. Epstein,” Summers told The Hill’s sister network NewsNation in a statement at the time. The former secretary’s ties with Harvard were officially severed last month, when he resigned as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. A university spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill that Summers would remain on leave until his retirement takes effect at the end of the academic year.
Rich and powerful in the new Epstein files: Steve Tisch transfers his NY Giants ownership -The Justice Department’s Jan. 30 release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein shows new ties with the world’s most powerful people, including information about his relationship to Richard Branson, Bill Gates and Elon Musk—sparking widespread fallout, with billionaire Steve Tisch stepping down from his ownership of the New York Giants in the wake of controversial emails with the late financier .The DOJ released approximately three million documents Jan. 30, including 2,000 videos and 18,000 photos, part of the government’s requirement to release its full documents on Epstein under federal law—but coming more than a month after the files were required to be released by Dec. 19.The files released Jan. 30 include a wide variety of documents, including emails between Epstein and his powerful figures—such as Musk—documents related to Epstein and associate Ghislaine Maxwell’s times in prison and witness interviews with Epstein victims, though many are heavily redacted.Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche denied the Trump administration had “covered up” any of the Epstein files by failing to release them sooner, pointing to the millions of pages the government had to review and arguing, “There’s not some tranche of super-secret documents that we’re withholding.”The documents include materials from the government’s criminal investigations into Epstein and Maxwell, “multiple FBI investigations” and the government’s investigation into Epstein’s death, the DOJ said.
Epstein files: Congress seeks to depose prison guard on duty at time of Jeffrey Epstein’s death -- The House committee investigating disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein announced on Friday it is seeking testimony from a prison guard on duty the night the New York financier died. In a letter posted to the House Oversight Committee’s X account, Chair James Comer, R-Ky., called Tova Noel, who allegedly Googled Epstein minutes before his body was found, for a deposition on March 26.“Due to public reporting, documents released by the Department of Justice, and documents obtained by the Committee, the Committee believes you have information that will assist in its investigation,” the letter to Noel states. Epstein was arrested in July 2019 on federal child sex trafficking charges and died by suicide weeks later in a federal jail in New York City. Noel was on duty that night and allegedly failed to do routine checks on Epstein. She and another guard were accused with falsifying records to cover up the missed checks, though criminal charges were ultimately dropped.The deposition of Noel is part of a sweeping investigation into Epstein, his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell and potential co-conspirators, as well as the circumstances of his death. Noel did not immediately respond to a request for comment placed via her attorney or to a voicemail left on her publicly listed phone number.
Anthropic sues Trump admin over Pentagon supply chain risk label - Artificial intelligence company Anthropic filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration Monday challenging the Pentagon’s decision to label the company and its products as a “supply chain risk” after negotiations over safety guardrails fell apart earlier this month. The suit, filed in federal court in California on Monday, argues the designation and President Trump’s order for all federal agencies to cease the use of Anthropic are “unprecedented and unlawful.” The AI firm asked the court to reverse the Pentagon’s decision, warning the “consequences of this case are enormous.” The supply chain risk designation has typically been reserved for foreign adversaries and restricts defense contractors from using the company’s products. “The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech,” the suit states. “No federal statute authorizes the actions taken here.” Anthropic has taken to court as a “last resort,” the company’s lawyers said, alleging the federal government “retaliated” against the firm for “adhering to its protected viewpoint on a subject of great public significance — AI safety and the limitations of its own AI models.” The lawyers also accused the Trump administration of trying to “destroy” the economic value of the Anthropic. The company filed a separate suit in the federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. as well, requesting a review of the Pentagon’s determination that Anthropic poses a supply chain risk to national security. Anthropic, which was founded with a particular focus on safety, has provided the Pentagon and intelligence agencies with its technology since late 2024 through a partnership with Palantir. The company has sought to set itself apart from AI competitors, calling for transparency and basic guardrails on the technology’s development. During negotiations with the Department of Defense (DOD), Anthropic set two red lines on domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, arguing AI is not reliable enough to make life-or-death decisions while changing what is possible with government surveillance. The Pentagon rejected Anthropic’s argument and insisted it should be able to use AI for whatever it deems to fall under “all lawful purposes.” Negotiations fell apart earlier this month, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said the company could not “in good conscience” agree to the Pentagon’s terms. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth notified the company last week of the designation while Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately stop using Anthropic products, including its flagship Claude models. The DOD, along with numerous federal agencies and the executive office of the president, are named in the suit. When reached for comment, the DOD and the General Services Administration (GSA) seach said they do not comment on litigation as a matter of policy. White House spokesperson Liz Huston said in a statement to The Hill that Trump will “never allow a radical left, woke company to jeopardize” the country’s national security. “The President and Secretary of War are ensuring America’s courageous warfighters have the appropriate tools they need to be successful and will guarantee that they are never held hostage by the ideological whims of any Big Tech leaders,” Huston wrote. Despite the Pentagon’s position, Anthropic has argued the restrictions cannot prohibit anyone who can do business with the military from doing business with the AI firm. Technology giants seem to agree. Google, Amazon and Apple said last week that Anthropic’s AI tools will stay available on their platforms for work that does not involve the Pentagon.
How AI ‘kill chains’ are speeding up the US war on Iran - Artificial intelligence is reshaping how the US military makes decisions in war – a shift clear in Iran, where the Pentagon says it struck more than 2000 targets in just four days. The unprecedented tempo of targeted attacks has been driven in part by AI systems that sift the torrents of intelligence data from drones, satellites and other sensors, generating strike options far faster than traditional human-led planning. The conflict also marks the first battlefield use of “frontier” generative AI models, with AI tools widely used by civilians – from office workers to doctors and students – helping commanders interpret data, plan operations and provide real-time feedback during combat. Over the past two years, the US Department of Defence has extensively integrated AI-enabled technology within its operations. The primary operating system for the Pentagon’s data is Palantir’s Maven Smart System, which alongside Anthropic’s Claude model forms a real-time data analysis dashboard for operations in Iran. “The reason the frontier models are so important – the technological shift in the last year and a half – is they have moved from summarisation to reasoning,” said Louis Mosley, UK and Europe head of Palantir. This ability of AI models to reason – or to consider a problem step by step – had enabled a “big jump in the volume of decisions and the speed at which [military personnel] can take those decisions” during complex war-fighting operations, he said. Yet, the same technologies that promise to accelerate military decision-making are also prompting concerns about oversight. The debate has intensified following a recent dispute between Anthropic and the Pentagon over the boundaries of military AI, underscoring the sensitivities around deploying frontier models in combat. The bombing of a girls’ primary school in Minab, in southern Iran, further illustrates the lethal risks of quickly generated or improperly vetted targets, although it remains unclear if and how much AI systems were involved in that operation. As the US and Israel sought to degrade regime institutions, they have hit more than 20,000 non-military buildings, according to Iran’s Red Crescent, including 17,353 that were residential. “The girls’ school [bombing] feels to me like the building was on a target list for years. Yet, this was missed, and the question is how?” said a former senior defence official for the US military, who asked not to be identified. “A machine? A human? I would like to believe AI can point out flaws like this, in theory. Unfortunately, combat is never as pristine as the technology is designed to be.” “If we look at the campaign against ISIS, the coalition struck around 2000 targets in the first six months of the campaign in Iraq and Syria,” said Jessica Dorsey, who researches the use of AI and international humanitarian law at Utrecht University. “Now compare that with reports about this campaign, where the same numbers of strikes [by the US] occurred within just the first four days. That illustrates the scale and speed of target execution.”
Ohio lawmakers seek to protect minors from AI-generated abuse - Online child pornography is an all-too common problem and it's one that can be made even worse with the use of new technology. A new bill proposed by two Ohio lawmakers would make it illegal to possess or create fake child pornography. Senate Bill 217 would outlaw using artificial intelligence to create obscene images of children, even if no real children were harmed. But what if the images aren't actually real? The newly introduced bill would make it a felony to possess or distribute sexually explicit images of children that are completely AI-generated. One children services advocate said this is a huge step in preventing online exploitation."We need an arsenal of tools in our toolbox to help keep kids safe, so this expansion of the law is one of those," Marilyn Pape, incoming executive director of Trumbull County Children Services said. The new bill would help target fake but realistic looking images, and Pape along with lawmakers said that even if the image is not of a real person, these actions could still lead to real children being abused. First amendment attorney, Brian O'Connor said a similar law was overturned by the United States Supreme Court more than two decades ago. The reason was because the language was too broad and could represent an illegal infringement on free speech rights.He advises lawmakers to ensure this bill does not make that mistake.Think of it like this: Shakespeare's 'Romeo and Juliet' is about two teenage lovers. When you read that story, there are no actual underage people engaging in sexual activity."Is that immediately a criminal act just because a computer has gone through and created something that someone else believes is sexually explicit? It's a tough thing that [lawmakers] really have to consider and I hope they would study the issue and be more narrow before they enact something into law. " O'Connor said.
Criminals use AI to pull personal information from social media accounts for kidnapping scam, car crash scam calls -- The ABC7 I-Team has an alert on a new scam, social scraping, and it might get you to think twice before putting too much personal information on Facebook, Instagram, or X. ABC7 has shown how criminals troll your social media for detailed personal information and use it to scam you or family members. Now, they are using artificial intelligence to make their schemes easier to carry out. Digital behavior analysts at BioCatch explained to the I-Team how it is happening. Jonathan Frost with BioCatch says scammers are using AI to gather information quickly. "I mean, that's the thing about a super-efficient; it doesn't get lazy. It doesn't get tired. It will work 24/7" Frost said. "Criminals are using the same sorts of technologies that legitimate businesses are to improve the sort of quality of their deceptions, but also to make it much easier for them to collect the information, process it, and format it into something that's going to really convince you that actually they know more about you than they really should." BioCatch says their 2025 report shows a 65% increase in global scam attempts. Many times, when a bad actor uses information, they find it on your social media accounts. Your mom's maiden name, your dog's name, and your favorite restaurant are all gathered by scammers, so they can pretend to be you. They can then execute the kidnapping scam or the car crash scam and trick your loved ones into sending money. "Fundamentally, fraudsters are always about urgency. They always want to create a situation in which you're going to fail to apply the normal good sense that you would," Frost said. In 2024, the I-Team showed you how AI can be used to piece your voice together from your social media and create a scam call. Tech experts from Transaction Network Services used AI to clone ABC7 I-Team Consumer Investigator Jason Knowles' voice from the news and tested it on customers at a local cafe. "I think any form of unexpected approach, whether through a social media messaging platform, an unexpected connection request, or an unexpected phone call should be treated with significant doubt," Frost said. Always be mindful of what you're putting on social media and avoid oversharing. Also, if you get one of these scam calls and you think a relative or loved one is in danger, and you're asked to send money, don't panic. Hang up and call your loved one back on your own to check. You should always have a safe word to weed out these types of scams.
ChatGPT convinced Illinois woman to fire her human attorney: Lawsuit— A federal lawsuit filed by life insurance company Nippon claims OpenAI’s chatbot acted as a lawyer and convinced a woman to fire her human attorney. Nippon says it settled a long-term disability lawsuit with an Illinois woman two years ago. Graciela Dela Torre signed a full release, and the case was dismissed with prejudice, meaning it can’t be refiled. However, last year, Dela Torre sought to reopen the case. When her attorney told her the settlement was final, Nippon says she turned to ChatGPT. The company claims the chatbot helped Dela Torre draft filings to try to undo her settlement, which she filed pro se, meaning without a lawyer. A judge denied the effort. Following the judge’s decision, Dela Torre filed a new case, flooding the docket with dozens of filings generated with ChatGPT’s help. Responding to the mishap cost Nippon nearly $300,000, according to the lawsuit. “This is actually the first real time I’ve seen a plaintiff or a claimant actually try and represent themselves 100%, and it got through the court system, and that’s been a revolutionary area,” Michael Stanisci, vice president of DemandLane, told “Jesse Weber Live.” Stanisci is not affiliated with the case, but he said it is “groundbreaking.” “It has access to nearly infinite human intelligence. What it lacks is the wisdom, right? It’s like a child trying to appease and make sure that it’s being praised by the end user,” Stanisci said. “So it draws upon everything possible in its ethos, in its universe to answer a prompt. And when the end user, Graciela in this situation, asked a prompt that pretty much had no real secure answer, this child AI imagined an answer and came up with the solution, and so it brings up a broader conversation.”
Crypto ATM Scams Hit $333M in the U.S. as AI Deepfakes Fuel Fraud --Crypto ATM fraud losses in the United States reached US$333 million (AU$470 million) in the first 11 months of 2025, as complaints to the FBI rose 33% and scammers increasingly used AI deepfakes to target victims through more than 30,000 kiosks nationwide.The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center logged more than 12,000 reports linked to crypto ATM fraud, with losses doubling each year since 2022, rising from US$78 million (AU$110 million) to US$114 million (AU$161 million) in 2023 and about US$250 million (AU$353 million) in 2024. An FBI spokesperson said the increase has been steady and shows no sign of slowing.Older Americans have borne most of the damage. People aged 60 and over accounted for more than 85% of reported kiosk-related losses, with the median victim age at 71. Scammers often spoof local phone numbers and use the names of real law enforcement officers to gain trust. As if it wasn’t bad enough already, researchers at CertiK said AI tools made the scams more effective in 2025, with AI-enabled operations generating 4.5 times more profit than traditional methods (a single search on social media about deepfake videos is enough to scare you). Criminals used real-time deepfake audio and video, along with data scraped from social media, to imitate trusted contacts and tailor approaches more convincingly. That has made government impersonation, romance scams and tech support fraud harder to detect. AARP said crypto has become the preferred payment method for many criminals because transfers are fast and difficult to reverse. CertiK also reported a shift from isolated scammers to transnational organised networks using corporate-style divisions of labour to scale ATM-based fraud. Lawmakers and regulators have started to respond. Senator Dick Durbin introduced the Crypto ATM Fraud Prevention Act in February 2025. The bill would require operators to register with the Treasury Department, display clear fraud warnings, provide live customer support during business hours, and issue receipts with traceable transaction details. It would also cap transactions at US$2,000 (AU$2.8K) per day and US$10,000 (AU$14K) during a customer’s first 14 days.
Kraken's Fed master account could be the new normal — The Federal Reserve's approval of a limited master account for Kraken Financial in March caught some market observers off guard. Many had expected that the central bank would first finalize guidance for its so-called "skinny" master accounts before granting payment system access to nontraditional institutions such as cryptocurrency firms.
- Key insight: Though some details are still unknown about what privileges come with Kraken's Fed master account, some stakeholders say the approval could serve as a model for future applicants once the Fed finalizes its limited payment account later this year.
- Expert quote: "For those of us who spend our lives reading the regulatory tea leaves, we did not expect to find this in our teacups." — Michele Alt, co-founder and managing director at Klaros Group.
- Look ahead: The Federal Reserve is expected to issue guidance on its limited master account by the end of the year.
Kraken Financial's receipt of a limited Federal Reserve master account is leading some industry observers to question whether the approval creates a new avenue for master account-seekers or whether it's a preview of the proposed "skinny" account.
Nasdaq partners with Kraken for its tokenized stock plans -Nasdaq has announced that Kraken's parent company will be a distribution partner for the tokenized securities trading offering it's developing, even as the global exchange awaits SEC approval for the initiative.
- Key insight: Nasdaq is using Kraken's infrastructure to prepare for tokenizing stocks upon SEC approval of the plan.
- What's at stake: Multiple stock trading platforms and financial institutions are moving forward to tokenize securities and assets for 24/7 trading.
- Expert quote: "Partnerships with digital asset pioneers give Wall Street giants access to the underlying infrastructure without having to build it." —Coin Bureau's Nic Puckrin
Nasdaq announced its partnership with the crypto exchange as part of an initiative for 24/7 trading that is pending regulatory approval from the SEC.
JPMorgan Payments' agentic commerce play; Ripple's Australian deal - JPMorgan Payments is officially in the agentic commerce game following a partnership with Paris-based software seller Mirakl.
- Key insights: JPMorganChase's payments unit is expanding its use of agentic AI via a partnership with a French software company.
- What's at stake: Most large banks and payment companies are developing uses for agentic AI, which enables payments and other functions with little or no human supervision.
- Forward look: The bank is testing agentic commerce with Paris-based Mirakl Nexus, with a broader rollout scheduled for later this year.
The bank is partnering with a French software company to upgrade its usage of the emerging forms of artificial intelligence. Plus, Ripple plans to buy a local payment company to secure a license in Australia, and more in American Banker's global payments and fintech roundup.
JPMorganChase sued over $328M crypto scheme - Investors claim JPMorganChase collected fees while ignoring suspicious transfers linked to a $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme.
- Key insight: A new class action lawsuit alleges JPMorganChase enabled a massive $328 million cryptocurrency fraud by ignoring glaring warning signs.
- What's at stake: During the scheme, the bank transferred approximately $123 million from Goliath's business account to cryptocurrency wallets at Coinbase.
- Supporting data: Between January 2023 and June 2025, the bank allegedly processed $253 million in deposits for the Goliath Ventures scheme.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review
Mastercard boosts agentic commerce, adds crypto network --Mastercard made moves this week to bolster cryptocurrency and agentic commerce, two vital pieces of its diversification strategy
- Key insights: Mastercard has expanded its use of agentic commerce and has recruited cryptocurrency firms for an advisory council.
- What's at stake: Payment firms and banks are working on strategies for both agentic AI and digital assets.
- Forward look: Mastercard will work with firms to build new payment use cases for cryptocurrency.
.The card network hopes to increase revenue from non-card payments and is tapping two major technology trends.
FDIC's Hill: Stablecoins ineligible for pass-through insurance — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Travis Hill on Wednesday said that payment stablecoins will likely not qualify for pass-through deposit insurance in remarks that spanned the agency's approach to simplifying supervision including updating capital rules.
- Key insight: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plans to propose regulation as part of the GENIUS Act excluding stablecoins from pass-through deposit insurance coverage.
- Supporting data: FDIC Chair Travis Hill said failing to exclude stablecoins from pass-through insurance could fundamentally change deposit distribution and shift the risk from issuers to banks.
- Forward look: Regulators will also proceed with a number of other banking reforms, including modifications to bank supervision, capital, liquidity and consumer compliance requirements.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Travis Hill said in a speech Wednesday morning that the agency will move to codify stablecoins as ineligible for deposit insurance — which is required under the GENIUS Act — and that the prohibition likely will include pass-through deposit insurance arrangements.
Fed's Bowman previews streamlined capital framework — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman outlined upcoming changes to the bank regulatory capital framework in a pair of upcoming regulations, saying the focus has been on making the capital framework more internally consistent and cohesive.
- Key Insight: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman highlighted upcoming changes to the global systemically important bank surcharge and Basel III endgame implementation rule, which primarily focus on adjusting input parameters and certain risk weighting mechanisms rather than overall capital levels.
- Expert quote: "These changes to the capital framework eliminate overlapping requirements, right-size calibrations to match actual risk, and comprehensively address long-standing gaps in our prudential framework." — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
- Forward look: Bowman said she is pushing for the proposals to be published next week, ahead of a long-telegraphed deadline of March 31 to publish the proposals.
Bowman outlined upcoming changes to the bank regulatory capital framework in a speech Thursday, focusing on streamlining bank capital requirements through Basel III and global systemically important bank surcharge rules.
Fed's Bowman: Smaller balance sheet to inform liquidity rules — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Wednesday that the central bank's ongoing efforts to modernize liquidity rules and facilities will be considered with an eye toward drawing down the Fed's balance sheet.
- Key insight: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank's forthcoming proposals to modernize liquidity rules and facilities will take into account a broader goal of reducing the Fed's balance sheet.
- Expert quote: "I would like to see a smaller balance sheet for the Federal Reserve as a whole. A lot of approaches to liquidity really don't incentivize a smaller balance sheet." — Fed Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
- What's at stake: Fed watchers say the current infrastructure of the discount window is in need of an overhaul, describing it as cumbersome and stigmatizing for banks to use.
Bowman said in a speech Wednesday morning that the central bank's ongoing consideration of changes to its emergency liquidity rules and facilities must align with a separate goal of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
BankThink Trump's order on debanking has put banks in an impossible position - Before holding financial institutions accountable for new regulatory expectations, clearer guidance is needed on what constitutes appropriate risk-based decision-making versus impermissible "debanking." In implementing the debanking executive order, the OCC and other federal banking regulators have removed "reputation risk" as a factor that financial institutions are expected to consider in assessing risks and making account service decisions, writes Laurel Loomis Rimon.
Enforcement is down under Trump. Is that a problem? - Federal bank enforcement actions have fallen sharply since the start of the second Trump administration, but experts are divided about whether the decline represents a change in attitude about enforcement generally or just a shift in methods for holding banks accountable.
- Key insight: Bank enforcement actions fell by 55% during the first year of the Trump administration, according to data compiled by financial advisory firm Klaros.
- Supporting data: Klaros' analysis shows that agencies issued 20 enforcement actions in the first quarter of 2025, but reduced that number to two by the fourth quarter. Terminated enforcement actions, meanwhile, rose from 40 in 2024 to 89 in 2025, showing a renewed focus on closing old cases.
- Forward look: The medium and long-term effects of the change in enforcement approach are uncertain, with some experts fearing that a weaker enforcement regime could allow risk to build up in the financial system, while others view the change as more of a procedural pivot.
Federal bank enforcement actions have dropped sharply since the start of the second Trump administration, but experts' views vary about whether less enforcement will result in a buildup of risk in the financial system. The number of new bank-level enforcement actions dropped by more than half from 2024 to 2025, while the number of enforcement actions terminated rose dramatically over the same period.
OCC's Gould fleshes out goals for core provider review - Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould on Wednesday said the agency is continuing to work to understand the "the uneven commercial negotiating relationship" between small banks and their back-end service providers, the so-called core market.
- Key takeaway: The OCC's information gathering on the concentrated core market is ongoing, but Gould says the agency understands the limited negotiating power smaller firms hold and is looking for ways, including artificial intelligence, to level the playing field.
- Expert quote: "We understand some of the challenges around core conversions, challenges around updates to systems and the costs associated therewith [and] are actively speaking with some of the major service providers as well," Gould said.
- Forward look: The OCC is continuing to meet with banks and their back-end service providers and reassessing potential reforms, though the comptroller didn't say when such reforms could be coming.
Gould said one of the early messages he is hearing from banks and supervisors revolves around an uneven playing field between small banks and their core providers, but suggested formal rules to address the problem are not imminent.
OCC's Gould doubles down on state preemption — Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould pushed back against concerns about the posture of his agency toward federal preemption of state banking policy in remarks at a banking conference on Tuesday.
- Key insight: Comptroller Jonathan Gould referenced the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's founding by Abraham Lincoln as the basis for federal preemption policy.
- Forward look: He said the OCC will continue to file briefs with federal courts on the subject so that there will be a robust record to shore up the agency's argument.
- Expert quote: "One of the key pillars of an economic union is federal preemption, which enables nationwide markets to arise," Gould said.
Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency would continue to pursue its view on federal preemption of state banking policy in court and in Congress.
Bankers warn of fallout from a prolonged Middle East conflict - Bankers warned Tuesday that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East will lead to adverse economic conditions, as consumers and companies bear the burden of the war's fallout.
- Key insight: The longer the conflict in the Middle East lasts, the greater the negative economic consequences will be, bankers predicted Tuesday.
- What's at stake: The war in Iran could drive up inflation, which would hurt consumers and corporations and ultimately have an adverse impact on banks' businesses.
- Expert quote: "The big wildcard is obviously the Middle East." — Citi CEO Jane Fraser
At an industry conference Tuesday, bankers said that an extended war with Iran will result in adverse economic conditions, including inflation.
Oregon on the verge of closing interest rate 'loophole' -The Beaver State is poised to opt out of a federal law that poked a hole in its interest rate cap, joining a growing list of states to reassert their authority over consumer loan rates.
BankThink: Don't be fooled by the scaremongering around private credit -Speaking at Georgetown University in November, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook noted that the private credit sector "has the potential to enhance financial stability and expand economic growth, since it matches longer-maturity loans with longer-term funding."There's a huge difference between short-term volatility and true systemic risk. The current rash of redemptions from private credit funds betrays a misunderstanding of the strengths underlying the business model.
Senators reintroduce bipartisan executive compensation bill — Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has reintroduced her bipartisan bill to claw back the compensation of failed bank executives.
- Key insight: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., reintroduced a bipartisan bill requiring regulators to claw back compensation from executives of failed banks, with support from a bipartisan group of lawmakers.
- What's at stake: The proposal would allow regulators to reclaim pay earned in the five years leading up to a bank collapse, reviving an idea that gained traction after the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
- Forward look: Despite cross-party backing, the bill faces long odds as lawmakers prioritize community bank regulatory relief.
The measure, led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., would require regulators to recoup compensation from bank executives during the five years prior to their bank's failure.
BankThink The Fed wants to let a dangerous asset loose on bank balance sheets -To further prop up an ailing mortgage market, the Federal Reserve recently proposed three changes to the way mortgage loans and mortgage servicing rights, or MSRs, would be treated under bank capital requirements. Two of the three proposed changes are a step in the right direction but the other, removing the deduction of MSRs over 10% of a bank's common equity Tier 1, or CET1, capital, invites one of the most notoriously volatile assets back onto the balance sheets of some banks in a big way.
- Key insight: The Federal Reserve recently proposed three changes to the way mortgage loans and mortgage servicing rights would be treated under bank capital requirements. Two of the three proposed changes are a step in the right direction.
- What's at stake: Removing the deduction of mortgage servicing rights over 10% of a bank's common equity Tier 1 invites one of the most notoriously volatile assets back onto banks' balance sheets.
- Forward look: A potential solution lies in maintaining a cap on MSRs at a level between that set currently and the levels set by by Ginnie Mae, permitting some offset for hedging and aligning that regulatory treatment between banks and nonbanks to maintain a level playing field in mortgage banking.
Mortgage servicing rights are one of the most notoriously volatile assets in financial markets. The Federal Reserve's plan to loosen their capital treatment could foretell major problems in the future.
Advocates urge judge to block $68m Colony Ridge settlement -- Civil rights groups have asked a federal court to reject a proposed $68 million settlement between the Department of Justice and Texas developer Colony Ridge, claiming the deal is a sham that would funnel $20 million to immigration enforcement that could lead to surveillance, detention, and deportation of the harmed borrowers. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and the Justice Department have urged a court to accept a $68 million settlement with Colony Ridge, a development outside of Houston, with prejudice. A coalition of civil rights groups have filed a motion urging the judge assigned to the case to reject the settlement.
- Key insight: Eight civil rights nonprofits have urged a federal court to reject a proposed settlement between the Department of Justice and developer Colony Ridge, arguing an immigration enforcement clause in the settlement is "unlawful."
- What's at stake: The underlying lawsuit targeted a "foreclosure mill" that sold undeveloped, flood-prone land to Hispanic buyers at 10% to 12% interest rates.
- Supporting data: The civil rights groups slammed the settlement for offering zero direct restitution to thousands of borrowers, instead funneling $20 million to immigration enforcement.
Civil rights groups object to a $68 million settlement between the Department of Justice and Colony Ridge Development in Texas, calling the deal a sham because it funnels $20 million into immigration enforcement and surveillance of victims.
Senate OKs housing bill with permitting, disaster language - The Senate passed a bipartisan housing affordability package Thursday that could advance a number of proposals on permitting reform and disaster recovery.Senators approved the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act,” sponsored by Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), on an 89-10 vote. The legislation is an updated version of a housing bill that passed out of the House last month. It contains provisions to accelerate reviews for housing projects under the National Environmental Policy Act, making it a small part of Congress’ broader effort to streamline permit approvals for the construction of new homes, critical infrastructure and energy projects.“Not only is this bill about cutting regulatory red tape, lowering costs, and expanding housing supply while generating no new spending, but it’s about making sure people … have even greater access to economic opportunity and the American dream of homeownership,” Scott said in a statement.
Senate passes bipartisan housing bill targeting large investors and easing regulations : NPR -The Senate has passed the largest housing bill in decades — bipartisan legislation designed to improve housing affordability and availability through deregulation, expanding old programs and banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes, with few exceptions.The bill passed 89 to 10. "It's Democrats. It's Republicans. It's pieces they built out together," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a co-sponsor of the bill, in an interview with NPR. "That is the strength of this bill.""It's not a Republican issue or a Democrat Issue," said Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the bill's other sponsor, speaking in advance of the vote on the Senate floor. "It's an issue about helping moms like the one who raised me, the amazing woman that she was, become homeowners." Many of the bill's provisions are meant to boost the United States' housing supply. The typical home sold in the U.S. — priced around $400,000 — is well above what the median family can afford. The housing shortage is responsible for much of that cost, since limited supply increases prices. One estimate from Realtor.com puts the shortfall between available units and demand at 4 million."If we want to bring down the cost of housing, we've got to build a lot more," said Warren. "And what I love about this bill is that it has more than 40 different provisions in it, all of which aim in the same direction, which is to give a push toward building more housing."Much of the bill mirrors one passed by the House last month, with 84% of the provisions from the latter making their way into the Senate version.The major difference between the two bills is the Senate's introduction of a ban that would prevent any investor that owns at least 350 homes from buying more."We put this bill together with the deep-seated belief that it is families who should live in homes and that's what homes are for," said Warren. "They're not there simply as investment vehicles for Wall Street private equity."Research is mixed on the impact that these large investors have on housing prices: A report from the Urban Institute research group found that large investors — those with a presence in at least three markets and with at least 1,000 homes — own just 3% of single-family rentals nationwide. Freddie Mac found that institutional investors may play a small role in price increases but found that they are much less significant than primary drivers like limited building and migration to high-cost cities.There are some exceptions to the bill's limits on institutional owners, such as allowing investors to buy homes needing serious renovation in order to bring them up to code, and allowing investors to own new homes constructed for renting, known as build-to-rent. But investors would be required to sell those homes after seven years, with the renter having first dibs to purchase.Build-to-rent, once a niche corner of the housing market, now makes up about 7% of new single-family house construction. Supporters of the trend say it makes housing affordable for everyone, arguing that building new housing reduces costs for both owners and renters by increasing the overall supply.In an open letter, 79 industry groups representing property managers like the Institute of Real Estate Management, as well as advocacy organizations pushing for more local housing construction, said they support new housing legislation but believe the Senate version should remove the sale requirement on build-to-rent homes. The letter warns that the provision "would effectively eliminate the production of Build-to-Rent (BTR) housing."When President Trump signed an executive order in January to limit large investors from buying homes, he gave a pass to build-to-rent homes. "The president's Executive Order included an exception for built for rent housing," Ken Wingert, the National Association of Home Builders' chief advocacy officer, told NPR in an emailed statement. "Any housing bill that makes it to his desk should do the same."
Housing affordability bill clears Senate as investor ban creates headaches - The Senate on Thursday passed the largest housing affordability bill in 30 years, including a ban on investors from buying single-family homes, with a 89-10 vote. But the bill faces an upward battle in the House, which passed its own bipartisan legislation in February. House GOP leaders have already said the measure will need to be negotiated, suggesting they will not take up the Senate-passed bill. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., earlier this week told fellow House Republicans in a closed-door meeting that the measure is likely to bog down over differences between the two chambers’ versions. One of the biggest issues is a ban on investors and companies from buying single-family homes if they already own 350 or more. Companies that add to the housing supply through building or serious renovations would be able to own more homes, but would need to sell those homes after no more than seven years. That provision was not initially in the Senate bill, or in the bill the House passed, but President Donald Trump championed the ban and indicated he wouldn’t sign a bill without it. Numerous industry groups, including the National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Housing Conference said in a position statement that the seven-year limit would eliminate production of build-to-rent housing and “would take hundreds of thousands of housing units off the market over the next decade, many of which would serve lower- and middle-income households.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., supported adding the institutional investing homeownership limit and said it would protect consumers. “They can also build as many apartment houses, as many condo complexes, as many triplexes as they want,” Warren said in an interview Thursday with CNBC. “But there’s a point of principle here, and that is that private equity cannot come in and buy up all of the housing supply in America. Homes should be for families, not for giant corporations.” That view was not universally shared, however. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, who voted against the bill, said the 350 homes cap is “bananas” and would ultimately result in a ban on rental housing. Schatz, like Warren, has a liberal voting record. “I don’t think people are clocking how bad this is going to be on the supply side,” he said, adding that it will “screw up” the single-family and duplex rental market.
White House order to increase small bank mortgage lending — The Trump administration has issued an executive order aimed at increasing small banks' ability to dive back into the mortgage lending space.
- Key insight: The White House issued an executive order directing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and bank regulators to tailor mortgage rules for community banks.
- What's at stake: The move is part of a broader Republican strategy to shore up its credibility around housing affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms, and comes as a bipartisan Senate-passed housing bill is facing resistance in the House in part because of the absence of community bank tailoring provisions in the Senate-passed version.
- Forward look: Any regulatory changes stemming from the order will take years to finalize and could be reversed by future administrations.
The White House executive order issued Friday afternoon directing regulators to ease Dodd-Frank compliance burdens comes as a bipartisan housing bill advances on Capitol Hill.
Judge strikes down Biden climate policy for new homes - A federal judge in Texas has thrown out a Biden administration climate policy that sought to set strict energy standards for homes being built for people with certain federally backed mortgages.The ruling by Judge Jeremy Kernodle of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas is a victory for a coalition of Republican state attorneys general and a powerful homebuilders’ advocacy group, which sued to block the Biden-era regulation establishing the policy.The regulation would have required energy-efficient features such as stronger insulation and upgraded heating and cooling systems in homes built for people with mortgages insured by programs in the Department of Agriculture and Department of Housing and Urban Development.Supported by environmental advocates, the regulation was part of former President Joe Biden’s efforts to use federally supported construction, including new homes and disaster rebuilding, to address climate change.
Iran war pushes mortgage rates near yearly high - Mortgage rates zoomed up 11 basis points this week as the Iran war wreaked havoc on oil prices, putting both the bond and equity markets in turmoil. The conflict pushed oil price futures above $100 a barrel for a short time earlier this week, which affected bond investors and the 10-year Treasury yield.
March ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Average annual property insurance payments rose to an all-time high" -- Here is the ICE March Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 Lending Climbs to 3.5-Year High as Refinance Activity Accelerates and Servicer Retention Strengthens Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its March 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. According to the analysis, total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in the fourth quarter — the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022 — as a surge in refinance activity drove lending to its highest level in three and a half years and servicer retention climbed to an eight-year high.“The fourth quarter marked a meaningful inflection point for mortgage market activity," said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. "Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of Q4 lending and servicers retained one in three refinancing borrowers, the strongest overall retention rate since early 2014. Underpinning it all, February's dip in mortgage rates expanded the refinance-eligible population to 5.4 million borrowers, the largest pool we've seen since early 2022, further improving affordability, which is at its best level in nearly four years." Key findings from the March Mortgage Monitor include:
- Refinance incentives surged while affordability held at multi-year highs - The number of borrowers considered refinance-eligible by at least 75 basis points jumped to 5.4 million, the highest level since early 2022. An estimated 565,000 first-lien refinances closed in the fourth quarter, up roughly 50% from a year earlier and representing the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2022. Affordability continued to improve on its near four-year high, with the monthly payment needed to purchase the average-priced home declining 8% from a year ago to $2,063.
- Q4 lending reached 3.5-year high, driven by refinance activity. Total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of fourth-quarter lending, the highest quarterly share since early 2022. Activity was concentrated among recently originated loans, with the average rate-and-term refinancer carrying a $510,000 balance and reducing their monthly payment by $248.
- Equity extraction remained strong, led by largest second lien volume in 18 years. Homeowners withdrew $52 billion in equity during the fourth quarter, bringing full-year 2025 equity withdrawals to $205 billion — the highest annual total since 2022. Of that figure, $116 billion was extracted through second liens, marking the largest annual second-lien volume since 2007. Homeowners continue to hold nearly $17 trillion in total equity, with approximately $11 trillion considered tappable.
- Property insurance costs hit another record high, though rate of growth slowed. Average annual property insurance payments rose 6.6% ($149) in 2025 to an all-time high, but at the slowest pace since 2020. The fourth quarter also marked the first quarter-over-quarter decline in insurance costs since ICE began tracking monthly data in late 2023. ICE Climate research found that borrowers in the highest insurance-burden quintile were at least 22% more likely to be non-current than those in the lowest quintile of credit score tiers analyzed. For every percentage-point increase in housing expenses allocated to insurance, the non-current rate rose by roughly 0.14 percentage points, on average across credit score quintiles. …
Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in January and remain below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
- The national delinquency rate dipped 3 basis points in January to 3.65% and is now 15 basis points below the pre-pandemic January 2020 benchmark
- Early-stage delinquencies improved, with 54,000 fewer borrowers 30 or 60 days late compared to December
- Later-stage stress increased as 90-plus-day delinquencies rose 35,000 and active foreclosures rose 16,000 in January, continuing their upward trend
- More than 850,000 borrowers are now 90-plus days past due or in active foreclosure — up 104,000 year over year, the highest level since mid-2018 outside of the immediate COVID-19 onset
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 0.4% year-over-year in February.
The return-to-the-office trend backfires -Many business leaders think that a stricter return-to-office policy will cause a surge in productivity. But in reality, the data tell a different story. Across practitioner reports and peer-reviewed research, including a new report from the Institute for Corporate Productivity, organizations that commit to highly flexible models, including remote-first, report strong output, healthier engagement, and faster growth than mandate-driven peers. The newest practitioner evidence should give leaders confidence. In the institute’s Remote-First Organizations report, most leaders in remote-first firms say productivity remains high. A sizable share report that it is very high, even though the majority of these companies avoid invasive monitoring of employees. The research frames remote-first as a deliberate operating model anchored in trust, clarity and well-designed touchpoints, not a stopgap. Independent national data aligns with these practitioner insights. In October 2024, a Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis reported a positive relationship between growth in remote work and total factor productivity across industries. A related BLS briefing summarized the same finding for leaders: Industries that expanded remote work faster also saw faster productivity growth during the pandemic period. These are not isolated anecdotes; they are economy-wide patterns. Performance shows up in profit and loss as well. The Flex Index finds that fully flexible companies grew revenues 1.7 times faster than mandate-driven firms from 2019 to 2024, even after adjusting for industry and size. That advantage is hard to ignore in a margin-sensitive, rate-constrained environment. The experimental evidence is equally compelling. A large randomized working paper and subsequent peer-reviewed study of Trip.com’s two-days-from-home hybrid schedule found no decline in performance or promotion rates — and a one-third reduction in quits. Randomized trials are rare in management research. When they confirm what observational data already suggest, leaders should take note.
Diesel fuel prices surge across the nation - Gas prices are climbing across the country as the war in Iran moves into its second week, the economic impact could stretch beyond the pump. Crude oil closed above $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since 2022. While gasoline prices are rising, diesel fuel is skyrocketing. According to AAA, the national price for diesel reached $4.78 per gallon this week, a 27% increase since February. Gasoline prices are averaging $3.54 per gallon. Truck driver Kendric Taylor says the rising fuel costs are already cutting into his profits as a driver. "It's like the loads don't pay enough. The loads go down, and they don't keep up with gas prices," said Taylor. Taylor says many drivers are dipping into their personal income to keep operating as fuel prices continue to rise. In Texas, diesel prices jumped from $3.24 per gallon before the conflict to $4.80 this week. In Louisiana, the average price is around $4.50, up a dollar from last week. The increase is concerning as diesel powers much of the nation's transportation system. Most freight trucks rely on diesel and those trucks move the majority of consumer goods across the U.S. When fuel prices rise, shipping costs rise alongside them. As trucking costs increase, retailers often pass those expenses along to consumers through higher priced items.
Democratic governor vetoes bill honoring Charlie Kirk on license plates - Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) vetoed a bill that would have honored the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk on license plates in the Grand Canyon State. “Charlie Kirk’s assassination is tragic and a horrifying act of violence. In America, we resolve our political differences at the ballot box. No matter who it targets, political violence puts us all in harm’s way and damages our sacred democratic institutions,” Hobbs wrote in her Friday veto letter. “I will continue working toward solutions that bring people together, but this bill falls short of that standard by inserting politics into a function of government that should remain nonpartisan,” she added. Legislation honoring Kirk, who lived in Arizona, passed in the state Senate in a 16-2 vote and in the state House in a 31-23 vote. The state House and Senate are controlled by Republicans. Kirk was publicly assassinated on the campus of Utah Valley University last year. The 31-year-old was revered by the Trump administration and promoted conservative values on college campuses across the country through his organization, Turning Point USA. The nonprofit was founded in 2012. The bill would have allocated $17 of the $25 license plate fee to the Conservative Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund, which in turn would make an annual donation to an organization founded in 2012 that helps with voter registration at high school and college campuses, according to the bill text. Turning Point USA was not specifically named as the benefactor.
How a first-grader taught her school district and a federal judge about free speech -Jonathan Turley -In March 2021, California principal Jesus Becerra was confronted by a clear and present threat to his school. Standing before him was the culprit — a student apparently so dangerous that Becerra had to act without delay to protect the entire Viejo Elementary School in the Capistrano Unified School District. The little girl is known only as B.B. in federal filings, but her actions were so heinous that a parent alerted Becerra to take all necessary action. Beccera showed B.B. the incriminating evidence: a picture of children holding hands with the words “any life” written under “Black Lives Matter.” Confronting the little girl, Becerra allegedly called the paper “racist.” He told her told that she would need to apologize for the outrageous statement. (Becerra denies using the word “racist.”). Her family alleges that she was also suspended for two weeks from recess, apparently to consider her failures as a human being. That single piece of paper has since prompted years of litigation, in which California educators fought for the right to punish this child for this picture given to a friend. And if that seems outrageous, you do not even know the worst of it. B.B. had just sat through a book reading about Martin Luther King. It ended with “Black Lives Matter,” an expression that she had never previously heard. She felt bad that black people in the book were shown as being treated differently and unfairly. She decided to draw a picture of her friends holding hands under those words with the addition of “any life.” She gave the picture to one of those friends, a girl known in the litigation as M.C. Throughout history, friends have given each other such notes and pictures without incident. But in these times, an array of adults felt the need to intervene, to make sure the girls understood that this innocent act was actually a despicable act of latent racism. When M.C. brought the picture home, her mother was upset. M.C. is the only black student in the class and B.B. is white. She wrote to Becerra to object that “while we can appreciate the sentiment of Black Lives Matter, my husband and I do not trust the place ‘any life’ is coming from.” She did not want this to become a “larger issue” but asked Becerra to take the “actions that need to be taken to address the issue.” And so Becerra allegedly demanded that she apologize and then suspended her from recess. B.B. did not tell her mother, Chelsea Boyle, about the incident or the alleged punishment for eleven months. But then the family moved to address the matter. They faced an array of administrators and lawyers who fought them at every stage. The school denied the punishment even happened, asserting that “the weight of evidence” did not support the claim that the little girl had been punished in any way. Ultimately, the case made its way before federal District Court Judge David Carter, a Bill Clinton appointee. The school demanded summary judgment. Even though a court at that stage must assume all disputed facts in the most favorable way for the nonmoving party (B.B. in this case), Carter held that she could indeed be punished for writing those two words, “any life.” Judge Carter declared that B.B.’s drawing was “not protected under the First Amendment” and that teachers like Becerra “are far better equipped than federal courts at identifying when speech crosses the line from harmless banter to impermissible harassment.” Besides, Carter added, “the downsides of regulating speech there is not as significant as it is in high schools, where students are approaching voting age and controversial speech could spark conducive conversation.” In Judge Carter’s world, there is little danger that elementary students are likely to develop a taste for free speech, let alone contemplate its use. (Judge Carter had shown equally dismissive views of free speech in a controversial ruling related to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.) And so B.B. apparently got what she deserved as a little harasser, roaming the halls of Viejo Elementary School with her hateful box of crayons. Fortunately, however, with the help of the Pacific Legal Foundation, the parents appealed Judge Carter’s chilling opinion. Last week, they won a major free speech victory before the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. B.B. will now have the opportunity denied by Judge Carter: to prove that giving a friend a picture celebrating all lives is not a threat to “the safety and well-being” of the entire Viejo Elementary School. Ironically, the school has taught its students an invaluable lesson: They have the right to speak and should never allow others to silence them arbitrarily. This first-grader prevailed over administrators, teachers, lawyers, and a federal judge who saw little “downside” in censoring her.
Years After The Pandemic, Younger Students Still Have Far To Go In Reading, Report Says --Reading levels in early elementary school grades have remained fairly stagnant since the COVID-19 pandemic, a national education assessment and research organization revealed this week.A new policy brief from NWEA, formerly the Northwest Evaluation Association, says first- and second-grade reading achievement “remains stalled with little rebounding,” while math achievement in those grades showed modest recovery since 2021, and kindergarten levels in both subject areas have remained mostly steady.The findings were pulled from NWEA’s ongoing analysis of K-8 students across 30,000 schools dating back to 2017. For reading, these early grade patterns closely resemble those recently observed in grades 3-8. Current first- and second graders were “day-care age” during the most disruptive periods of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, yet their achievement mirrors that of older students who experienced those disruptions earlier in their elementary school careers. This suggests broader, longer-lasting system challenges, as opposed to interruptions to a single cohort, said Megan Kuhfeld, NWEA’s data analytics director. “It is important that we understand the depth and persistence of unfinished learning from the pandemic’s disruptions, but we must also focus on our lens beyond the COVID-19 years,” she said in a news release. “While these youngest elementary students were just infants and toddlers when COVID-19 hit, this stagnation in reading and uneven recovery in math is an indicator of something bigger impacting our education system that extends beyond one cohort or a moment in time.” The report also notes that while first- and second-grade math scores have steadily improved since 2022, overall achievement remains below pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, gaps have narrowed across various student groups, including those from low-income households, blacks, and Hispanics.The National Assessment of Educational Progress reports list average state assessment scores in reading and math by grade level and note percentages that are below or above basic and proficiency levels. NWEA’s reports for early grade levels, by contrast, show numbers on a chart that indicate a standardized difference in mean achievement compared to 2019, the pre-COVID reference year. For reading, the 2025 number was -0.13 for second grade, and -0.11 for first. For math, the numbers were -0.15 and -0.05, respectively, but both were still an improvement from 2021.The math and reading scores for kindergarten achievement both showed positive numbers that were higher than 2019 levels.NWEA suggests that school leaders should review staffing levels and instructional materials as they consider improvement plans.In another recent report, NWEA found that only one-third of American K-12 schools have returned to pre-COVID pandemic achievement levels in math or reading.Standardized tests in every state will take place before March 20. This year’s assessments include math and reading for grades four and eight, and a U.S. history and civics exam for grade eight.The 2026 reading and math results will be released in early 2027. The U.S. history and civics results will follow, with a summer 2027 release date expected.
Experts warn parents, educators to get ahead on Iran war conversations -Parents and educators are navigating difficult conversations about the war with Iran as students of all ages see disturbing news and images online from the conflict. From the deaths of U.S. service members to a strike on an Iranian school killing more than 150 people, the horrors of war are getting harder to avoid for children. Experts warn it is a complicated balance not to shy away from these conversations while also keeping them age-appropriate. But the amount of time parents have to game that out is minimal in the age of the internet, with older students consuming online misinformation faster than parents expect “I would say starting with a listening mindset and letting the conversation go from there,” said Scott Woitaszewski, chair of the school safety and crisis response committee for the National Association of School Psychologists, instead of thinking an adult has to have “all the right answers, so to speak.” “For example, you might ask a question like, ‘What have you heard and what are you feeling?’ And that’s that’s a good way to convey care and empathy, it also provides clues … for example, does the child feel all alone? Do they need comforting? Or maybe their questions and needs are more around inaccurate information. Do they need some debunking of inaccurate information?” The U.S.-Iran war has taken over social media and news headlines as gas prices rise and the Trump administration embraces a bellicose press strategy, sharing images of the conflict including posting a video of the U.S. Navy sinking an Iranian warship, killing dozens. But the war has also led to a flood of AI-generated fake images and videos, and distinguishing fact from fiction can be difficult for adults, let alone children. “It’s important to understand that media also often gets used during war, that media becomes a mechanism by which the warring parties can gain support for themselves,” said Alison Holman, a health psychologist and professor in the Sue & Bill Gross School of Nursing and Department of Psychology at the University of California, Irvine. “Media is often used as propaganda, and we saw that in the Israel-Gaza War.” “I think it’s important for kids to understand that, so that when they look at stuff and engage with the media, they’re engaging in a way that is helping them, recognizing and looking at it and thinking about it in a critical way, instead of just accepting what they’re seeing, especially if they’re scrolling on social media,” Holman added. Experts say it is important that adults have their own feelings in line and don’t feel a need to share their own thoughts on the conflict but stick with the facts. “Before you start any conversation, take a breath, sort of make sure that you’re calm, that you’ve got your thoughts together, that you have some ideas of what you’re about, what you know about the situations, your feelings about your beliefs and values,” said Robin Gurwitch, a psychologist who specializes in children exposed to traumatic events and a professor at the Duke University School of Medicine. “First and foremost, make sure your emotions are in check before you jump in with your kids. Because no matter whether they’re 6 or 16, they’re going to take their cues from you, so you want to be seen as OK, I can talk about this,” she added. The tone the adult sets for these discussion is important, experts argue, because it is unlikely students will only want to talk about this once, especially with a clear end to the conflict not in sight.
Ohio lawmakers seek to protect minors from AI-generated abuse - Online child pornography is an all-too common problem and it's one that can be made even worse with the use of new technology. A new bill proposed by two Ohio lawmakers would make it illegal to possess or create fake child pornography. Senate Bill 217 would outlaw using artificial intelligence to create obscene images of children, even if no real children were harmed. But what if the images aren't actually real? The newly introduced bill would make it a felony to possess or distribute sexually explicit images of children that are completely AI-generated. One children services advocate said this is a huge step in preventing online exploitation."We need an arsenal of tools in our toolbox to help keep kids safe, so this expansion of the law is one of those," Marilyn Pape, incoming executive director of Trumbull County Children Services said. The new bill would help target fake but realistic looking images, and Pape along with lawmakers said that even if the image is not of a real person, these actions could still lead to real children being abused. First amendment attorney, Brian O'Connor said a similar law was overturned by the United States Supreme Court more than two decades ago. The reason was because the language was too broad and could represent an illegal infringement on free speech rights.He advises lawmakers to ensure this bill does not make that mistake.Think of it like this: Shakespeare's 'Romeo and Juliet' is about two teenage lovers. When you read that story, there are no actual underage people engaging in sexual activity."Is that immediately a criminal act just because a computer has gone through and created something that someone else believes is sexually explicit? It's a tough thing that [lawmakers] really have to consider and I hope they would study the issue and be more narrow before they enact something into law. " O'Connor said.
Students defy right-wing death threats to protest ICE in Battle Creek, Michigan - On February 20, hundreds of students walked out of class at 1:25 pm at Lakeview High School in Battle Creek, Michigan to participate in a planned protest of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Students protest the immigration police in Battle Creek, Michigan, February 20, 2026. [Photo: michelevibesirl] The day before the protest, 57-year-old Mark Hendricks from the neighboring community of Galesburg was arrested by the Battle Creek Police Department (BCPD) and Michigan State Police on a charge of “making threats to commit violence against students with a firearm.” Screenshots posted by community members show that Hendricks responded on social media to someone saying “This is going to be awesome” about the planned protest. His response said, “yes, AWSOME!! (sic) WHEN YOU COMMUNIST ILLEGAL ALIEN PEDOPHILE PROTECTING PIECES OF SHIT GET WHAT YOU HAVE COMMING!! (sic) WE WILL DESTROY YOU ALL!!” Another post by the fascist Hendricks stated “All Maga Patriots!! Come to Battle Creek! Come armed! Be ready to fight and destroy ALL COMMUNIST ILLEGAL ALIEN PEDOPHILE PROTECTORS! THEY DONT DESERVE TO LIVE!!” News Channel 3 reported that BCPD Sergeant Chris Rabbit said “the threats through the social media platform implied bringing weapons to the protest. … Our response was heightened today in response to the threats. We had 15 officers deployed.” Despite the threat, hundreds of students gathered at the school’s stadium for student speakers and then marched along the adjacent Helmer Road to the intersection with Business Loop I-94 in front of a Meijer supermarket. The decision by the students to go ahead with their protest at this high traffic location, after receiving death threats, demonstrates their strong conviction to oppose ICE and the increasingly fascistic actions of the Trump administration. One of the student speakers said “this entire country is turning into a dictatorship, and no power of hate is greater than love. … I do not see any immigrants as any sort of threat because they are here to survive. I know a couple of kids who need to stay here because they have medical issues and if they go back to where they come from, they’re going to die. I want everybody to be with me in this. I love this country and I can’t let it be like this.” The handmade signs held by the students contained messages like “We’re Not Animals We Are Not Aliens We Are Humans” and “If This Was Really About Getting Rid Of Criminals Then Why Did You Elect One As President.” The action by the students at Lakeview High School are part of a growing movement of students across the US. In Michigan, the walkouts have taken place in the Detroit-metro area, which contains almost half of the state’s population, as well as many other communities. In the Grand Rapids area, there have been many walkouts involving hundreds of students. Students walked out at Northview High School January 30, Lowell High School February 3, Grand Rapids Public Museum High School on February 4, Wyoming High School on February 6, Southwest Middle High School February 13, Grandville High School on February 13, and Innovation Central High School February 18. Grand Rapids is the second-largest metropolitan area in Michigan, and ICE recently leased office space in the Waters Center downtown. On February 3, 28-year-old Ecuadorian asylum seeker Byron Martinez was stopped in the Burton Heights area by an unmarked car. Agents pushed him down into the snow as he reportedly said, “I can’t breathe.” While Grand Rapids police officers provided crowd control, Martinez was detained and transferred to the North Lake Processing Center (NLPC), the facility where detainee Nenko Gantchev died on December 15. In Lansing, the third-largest metro area in Michigan, students walked out at East Lansing High School on January 9, Waverly High School on January 20, Eastern High School on February 3, and Sexton High School on February 3.
Wife of Georgia teacher killed in prank gone wrong wants charges against teens dropped 'to prevent a separate tragedy'-- The wife of the high school teacher killed in a horrific prank gone wrong is begging for all charges to be dropped against the students involved — saying her husband loved them and was “excited” to join them in the prank.Five teenagers were arrested after teacher Jason Hughes, 40, was run over when he slipped and fell outside his home in Gainesville, Georgia, while chasing them for covering his front yard in toilet paper as part of a prank war that had been a school tradition for years.The father of two wasn’t trying to angrily confront them but “was excited and waiting to catch them in the act,” his wife, Laura, told the New York Times. The family fully “supports getting the charges dropped for all involved,” the grieving widow said, saying her husband loved the students, who face up to 15 years in prison.“This is a terrible tragedy, and our family is determined to prevent a separate tragedy from occurring, ruining the lives of these students,” Laura, who is also a math teacher at the same high school, continued. “This would be counter to Jason’s lifelong dedication of investing in the lives of these children.”One of the teenagers, Jayden Wallace, 18, is facing up to 15 years behind bars after police charged him with vehicular homicide in the teacher’s death. Hughes stepped outside around 11:40 p.m. Thursday and walked over to the cars that Wallace and four other teens were getting into to flee after they tossed toilet paper over his property, officials said.The educator tripped and fell into the road, which was slick from rain, and was run over as Wallace drove his pickup truck away.The horrified teens stopped to check on Hughes and provided first aid until emergency responders arrived and transported him to the hospital, where he died from his injuries.
ROTC students subdued and killed Old Dominion University gunman, officials say - ABC News -When a gunman opened fire at Virginia's Old Dominion University, on Thursday, killing an instructor and injuring two other people, Reserve Officers' Training Corps (ROTC) students stepped in to subdue and kill the suspect, officials said. The suspect, identified as Mohamed Jalloh, a former Army National Guardsman who was convicted of giving material support to ISIS, allegedly was trying to commit a terrorist attack, FBI Special Agent in Charge Dominique Evans told reporters. The gunman opened fire in Constant Hall, an academic building, around 10:43 a.m. and was found dead minutes after officers arrived, Old Dominion University Police Chief Garrett Shelton said during a press briefing. Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger identified the person who was killed as Lt. Col. Brandon Shah. Lt. Col. Brandon Shah was a professor of military science and ROTC instructor at Old Dominion University in Virginia. Shah was a veteran Army aviator and a professor of military science in the ROTC program at ODU, where he also completed his bachelor’s degree, according to his biography on the university website. The FBI said ROTC students were in the classroom when the gunman opened fire and stepped in, rendering him "no longer alive." Evans, the FBI special agent in charge, would not go into detail as to how the suspected shooter was killed, but said he was not shot. "They basically were able to terminate the threat," she said. Jalloh allegedly walked into the Old Dominion classroom on Thursday and asked if it was an ROTC class, and when someone answered, "yes," he shot the instructor several times, according to sources. Evans alleged he shouted "Allah Akbar" during the incident. Jalloh was previously convicted in 2016 of attempting to provide material support to the Islamic militant group and sentenced to 11 years in prison in 2017. He was released in December 2024, according to Bureau of Prisons records.Prosecutors had recommended Jalloh serve 20 years in prison. It's not immediately clear why he was released before the end of his 11-year sentence, though it is not unusual in the federal prison system for inmates to be released before serving their full term of imprisonment. Students at the university described the moment the gunfire broke out.A sophomore named Jennifer told ABC Hampton, Virginia, affiliate WVEC that she was waiting for a midterm exam when she heard a group of people saying, "get out, get out, get out." "All of a sudden, we heard a commotion. A lot of people rumbling, starting to get up," she said. "The guy next to me, we looked at each other, we started running, and that's when we heard, you know, gunshots."
Erika Kirk appointed to Air Force Academy board -President Trump has appointed Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, to the Air Force Academy’s Board of Visitors, having her replace her husband. Comprising 16 members, the Board of Visitors is responsible for making recommendations to the Defense secretary for changes at the Air Force Academy. The board provides an annual report on the military institute’s morale, financial state and academics. Also on the board is Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) — Trump’s recent pick to be the next secretary of Homeland Security — as well as Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), among others. The board did not announce Erika Kirk’s appointment, though her name now appears on the list of members. Asked as to when Erika Kirk had been named to the board, the White House did not say, only praising Trump as having “made the perfect choice” in appointing her.
Ohio State President Ted Carter resigns after revealing 'inappropriate relationship' with a woman --Married Ohio State President “Ted” Carter Jr. resigned Monday from his $1.5 million-per-year job after fessing up to an “inappropriate relationship” with a woman who wanted Ohio State’s help with her business. Carter, 66, said in a statement he resigned voluntarily, after admitting to the university’s board of trustees he “made a mistake in allowing inappropriate access to Ohio State leadership.” He did not elaborate on the circumstances surrounding the relationship, but said he was leaving with his wife of nearly 45 years. Carter filled a vacancy left by Kristina Johnson’s unexplained mid-contract resignation. The other woman has not been publicly identified.
Blue states sue Trump administration over new race-based reporting requirements for colleges -Seventeen Democratic-led states sued the Trump administration on Wednesday over new race-based reporting requirements for universities targeting admissions, financial aid and student performance data. The lawsuit is challenging the new “Admissions and Consumer Transparency Supplement” (ACTS) survey that requires schools to provide years of admissions and student data broken down by race and other aspects to ensure schools aren’t engaging in affirmative action. It is a big change from the basic information the federal government has collected from schools over the years for the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. The lawsuit says “the sheer amount of data sought through the ACTS survey would place a considerable burden” on colleges. The blue states argue the reporting requirements are costly and will be used as a tool by the administration to launch politically motivated investigations. The attorneys general of the states also argue the high demand of information will make it difficult for schools to produce usable data to the government on such short notice. “The Trump Administration is on a fishing expedition — demanding unprecedented amounts of data from our colleges and universities under the guise of enforcing civil rights law,” said California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who represents one of the lead states in the lawsuit. “This is the same administration, I’ll remind you, that gutted the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Civil Rights, leaving thousands of civil rights complaints and investigations in limbo. This latest sham demand threatens to turn a reliable tool into a partisan bludgeon. California is committed to following the law — and we’re going to court to make sure the Trump Administration does the same,” Bonta added. The other states involved are New York, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin and Washington. The Hill has reached out to the Education Department for comment. The states say without court intervention schools will go through a costly process that could lead to unusable data and more leverage for the Trump administration to target institutions. If universities refuse, they will face other government penalties.
Large Study Shows High Caffeine Intake Linked To Reduced Dementia Risk -- -- New research tracking hundreds of thousands of people over decades suggests that moderate caffeine consumption is linked to a lower risk of developing dementia. “Caffeine increases the brain’s activity and can accelerate the speed of messages between the brain and the body,” Jolene Knight, psychiatric nurse practitioner at Stony Brook Medicine’s Center of Excellence for Alzheimer’s disease, and not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times. The study, recently published in JAMA, followed 131,821 people for up to 43 years and found that those who drank two to three cups of caffeinated coffee or one to two cups of tea daily had a lower risk of developing dementia than those who drank little or no caffeine.“When searching for possible dementia prevention tools, we thought something as prevalent as coffee may be a promising dietary intervention,” senior author Dr. Daniel Wang, associate scientist with the Channing Division of Network Medicine at Mass General Brigham, said in a statement.Wang and his team tracked participants from two long-term studies of medical professionals, the Nurses’ Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, with starting ages typically in their mid-40s to early 50s.They found that people who drank between one and five eight-ounce cups of caffeinated coffee had an 18 percent reduced risk of dementia. However, those who drank caffeinated tea daily had a roughly 15 percent reduced risk. Interestingly, the benefits plateaued beyond two and a half cups of coffee daily, possibly because the body cannot process higher amounts of the beneficial compounds in these beverages. Caffeine can mimic adenosine and bind to receptors in the brain, blocking the molecule that promotes sleepiness, and keeping us alert, Knight said. By doing so, it increases neuron activity, which may reduce inflammation.
CDC: Antiviral use low among older COVID outpatients, despite higher risk for severe disease - From June 2023 to September 2025, only 16% to 38% of non-hospitalized US COVID-19 patients aged 65 years and older were given an antiviral prescription, while those aged 75 to 84 and older were more likely to receive such a prescription than younger patients, according to a report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers. For the study, published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the team used electronic health records to evaluate factors tied to receipt of an antiviral prescription among non-hospitalized COVID-19 aged 65 years and older. “Adults aged ≥65 years have the highest rates of COVID-19–related hospitalization,” the authors wrote. “Despite the proven benefit of COVID-19 antivirals in preventing severe outcomes, data suggest that their use is low among older adults.” The odds of receiving an antiviral prescription were greatest among those aged 75 to 84 years and 85 and older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.09 and 1.11, respectively), those of Asian (aOR, 1.42) or Hispanic (aOR, 1.24) race, and recipients of at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose (aOR, 1.73). The proportion of COVID-19 outpatients aged 65 and older given an antiviral prescription was lower in spring 2024 (21%), fall and winter 2024-25 (23%), spring 2025 (16%), and summer 2025 (19%) than during other seasons (range, 37% to 38%). The odds of antiviral prescription were highest in summer 2024 (aOR, 1.05). Among prescription recipients, 99% received it within 7 days of COVID-19 diagnosis, and 80% were prescribed nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid). Patients with at least one underlying condition and rural residents had lower odds of receiving an antiviral prescription. The chances of prescribing were lower when COVID-19 incidence was lower. “Antivirals might be underprescribed among adults aged ≥65 years, and prescribing rates vary temporally,” the researchers concluded. “Encouraging annual COVID-19 vaccination and increased prescribing of antivirals among adults aged ≥65 years with COVID-19 could reduce the risk for severe illness and hospitalization in this population.”
State tax structure linked to length of COVID restrictions -US states that relied more heavily on sales tax revenue were more likely to impose shorter stay-at-home orders and business closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an analysis published late last week in Contemporary Accounting Research. The findings highlight how fiscal pressures may have influenced public-health policy decisions. The study, led by researchers at North Carolina State University (NCSU), examined whether differences in state tax systems were associated with the length of COVID restrictions. The researchers analyzed data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, comparing each state’s tax revenue structure with the length of its pandemic restrictions. The findings suggest that states that depended more on sales taxes as a source of revenue tended to keep pandemic restrictions in place for shorter periods. “We find that states that are more dependent on consumption taxes experienced shorter durations of stay-at-home orders, restaurant closures, and bar closures,” the authors write. Anticipated losses in sales-tax revenue during lockdowns may have shaped how policymakers weighed public-health restrictions. “The perception that business closures would create tax revenue shortfalls created an incentive for state policymakers to reduce the length of such closures,” the authors write, arguing that reliance on sales tax for revenue may have “implicitly entered into the equation when determining the length of stay-at-home orders.”
Long-COVID prevalence may vary by COVID-19 variant, time since infection | The first known meta-analysis of how SARS-CoV-2 variant type and time since infection influence long-COVID symptoms ties Omicron to brain fog and paresthesia (numbness and tingling), while earlier variants were more likely to cause shortness of breath and loss of smell. The study also puts the prevalence of the condition at 29%, though it dropped to 23% once the Omicron strain started to dominate. Investigators in Manila, the Philippines, led the study, which involved searching six databases from December 2019 to December 2025 for studies of adults diagnosed as having long COVID. To estimate pooled prevalence, the team stratified the data by variants of concern (VoC) and follow-up (less or more than six months). The studies were of cross-sectional, case-control, prospective cohort, and retrospective cohort design, and all but one relied on patient self-report. Among all variants identified, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron were considered VoC. “These VoC have been manifested with various pathologic phenotypes such as heterogeneous disease severity, resistance to neutralizing antibodies, reinfection rates, and vaccine effectiveness,” the study authors wrote. The study findings were published this week in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. The average participant age was 46.7 years, 41.2% were men, and the average vaccination coverage was 69.6%. The most prevalent pre-infection chronic conditions were high blood pressure (24.2%), obesity (20.0%), and diabetes (8.7%) The pooled prevalence of long COVID among 35 studies from 19 countries involving 159,000 total participants was 29.4%, with higher prevalence of long COVID in the pre-Omicron (35.5%) than in the Omicron (22.8%) period. The highest prevalence was during the Beta wave (59.5%), and the lowest was tied to the wild-type virus (18.3%). After excluding data sets with mixed or unspecified VoC, the overall prevalence of long COVID was 28.5%. The long-COVID pooled prevalence at less than six months after infection (27.3%) was comparable to that at six months or later (29.9%). Impaired sleep (32.5%), headache (19.8%), and rash (6.5%) were more prevalent in the six months after infection than at six months or later. In contrast, malaise (general unwellness; 33.1%) and difficulty swallowing (12.1%) were more common after six months. In 29.9% of cases, symptoms lasted more than six months. During all variant periods, fatigue was the most common long-COVID symptom, followed by brain fog, shortness of breath, and sleep problems. Pre-Omicron variants were tied to shortness of breath and loss of smell, while Omicron was linked to brain fog and paresthesia. Most symptoms didn’t wane appreciably over six months. Rates of impaired sleep were higher in the early pre-Omicron era but improved over time. In contrast, heart palpitations and eye problems increased in later pre-Omicron periods. “Our findings underscore that post-COVID-19 condition should not be viewed as a uniform syndrome but rather as a dynamic and multifaceted condition shaped by VoC and temporal factors,” the authors wrote. “The shifting symptomatology profiles suggest that different mechanisms may drive the persistence of post-COVID symptoms across variants and over time.” “Post-COVID condition remains a burden despite vaccination,” the team concluded. “Distinct symptomatology patterns across VoC and timelines highlight the need for tailored management strategies to mitigate long-term global impacts.”
CDC reports 11 more pediatric flu deaths as several key flu indicators fall slightly - For the second week in a row, 11 US children died of influenza, and while flu activity remains elevated across the country, several key flu indicators are slowly declining, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports today in its FluView recap of the week ending March 7. Test positivity for flu was 15.3%, down slightly from 15.8%, and 3.7% of health care visits were for respiratory illness, down from 3.9% the previous week. In total, 9,130 people were hospitalized for flu, compared with 10,763 the week before. Flu deaths as a percentage of all deaths declined to 0.5% from 0.7% the previous week. The cumulative flu hospitalization rate in FluSurv-NET is the third highest since the 2010-11 season. Children have the second-highest cumulative hospitalization rate for that age-group since 2010-11. The percentage of outpatient visits due to respiratory illness was 3.7%, down from 3.9% the previous week. Influenza A viruses continue to dominate but are declining as influenza B activity varies by region. Of the 1,667 influenza A viruses that underwent additional genetic testing since September 2025, 92.5% were A(H3N2) subclade K. So far this season, 101 children have died of flu, roughly 85% of whom were unvaccinated. The CDC estimates that there have been at least 27 million flu infections, 350,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths since fall. The CDC has classified the current flu season as “high severity” for children and “moderate severity” for adults and older adults. In its Respiratory Illnesses Data Channel update today, the CDC said the amount of acute respiratory illness causing people to seek care is low. Because respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity started later than expected in most of the United States, the season may extend into April in many areas, it predicted. Infants and children younger than 4 years have the highest rates of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Overall, ED visits for flu and RSV are moderate, while those for COVID-19 are very low and falling. Deaths related to COVID-19 are low, at 0.5%, and are very low for RSV, at 0.1%. WastewaterSCAN notes high levels of influenza A and B, RSV, and human metapneumovirus and moderate levels for SARS-CoV-2.
FDA vaccine advisers recommend adding subclade K to fall shots-- Although the United States officially left the World Health Organization (WHO) in January, US scientists have continued to collaborate with international researchers to track the evolution of influenza viruses.Today, the Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) unanimously endorsed the WHO’s recommendation for viral strains to include in flu shots starting this fall. The final decision will be made by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Martin Makary, MD, MPH.Seven voting members of the committee recommended that fall flu vaccines include a new variant that emerged in October, called A(H3N2) subclade K. Although the strain appeared too late to be included in last year’s vaccines, subclade K has since become the dominant flu variant in the Northern Hemisphere, Lisa Grohskopf, MD, MPH, an influenza expert at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told the committee.Scientists must make decisions about flu shots every year in February or March because, using current technology, the vaccines take about six months to manufacture and distribute. At today’s meeting, CDC experts detailed the genetic makeup of flu viruses currently in circulation, based on specimens collected around the world. But flu viruses mutate frequently. There’s no guarantee that the three variants selected today will be the same as the strains spreading next fall and winter.“We were reminded about how difficult strain selection is” this year, said Arnold Monto, MD, acting VRBPAC chair and a professor of public health and epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. “It's a little bit of science, a little bit of luck.” The mismatch helps explains why flu vaccines were less effective than usual this season. Based on interim results from three surveillance networks published today in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), vaccination reduced the number of influenza-related outpatient visits among children by 38% to 41% and lowered their risk of hospitalization by 41%.In adults, vaccine effectiveness (VE) among adults through February was 22% to 34% for outpatient visits and 30% against flu-related hospitalization. In a separate MMWR report based on data from California, VE against lab-confirmed flu for all age-groups through January was 33% (32% against influenza A and 47% against influenza B). Influenza has taken a heavy toll on young people in recent months, leading the CDC to classify this season as “high severity” for children, Grohskopf said. At least 90 children have died of the flu. Among those who died, about 85% of eligible children were not fully vaccinated. The flu season was “moderate” for adults. Among adults age 65 and older, flu vaccines reduced influenza-related medical visits by 22% to 34% and hospitalizations by 30%, Grohskopf said.The total number of flu-related hospitalizations is the third-highest since the 2010-11 season, and the second-highest among children. The current flu season is on its way out, Grohskopf said. Doctors are now treating fewer patients with influenza A and more with influenza B, a shift that occurs in many flu seasons. The flu has caused up to 42 million illnesses since October, along with up to 19 million medical visits, up to 660,000 hospitalizations, and up to 66,000 deaths since October 1, according to CDC estimates.
Highly contagious virus with no treatment spreading rapidly through western states -- Cold, flu and COVID may get the most attention, but a lesser-known, highly contagious virus is taking the West Coast by storm. Wastewater SCAN data show that human metapneumovirus, or HMPV, is rampant in Northern California — specifically San Francisco, Marin, Vallejo, Napa, Novato, Santa Rosa, Sacramento and Davis, per reports. The virus peaked sharply in January and remains elevated in early March, although the seasonal winter wave is now tapering.“It is a single-stranded RNA virus, like flu and COVID,” Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, told Fox News Digital. “The virus is increasing not only in the west, but also around the country.” The wastewater data also show that HMPV is rising sharply in the Midwest and Northeast. The most common symptoms of the virus in healthy children and adults include cough, fever, nasal congestion and shortness of breath, per the CDC. Those at highest risk of severe illness, such as pneumonia, include young children, older adults and those who are immunocompromised. It leads to over 650,000 hospitalizations yearly worldwide, according to Siegel. Rare effects of HMPV can include asthma attacks, wheezing, difficulty breathing, bronchiolitis (infection of the small airways), ear infections, croup (a “barking” cough) and fever, according to the CDC. HMPV is in the same viral family as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and was first discovered in 2001, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS), part of the CDC, monitors samples of wastewater (sewage) for viruses and bacteria to detect infection patterns in communities. Adults with COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) can experience complications of their illness if they contract HMPV. “It can worsen chronic lung conditions,” Siegel confirmed. The virus can be transmitted from close personal contact and from coughing, sneezing and touching contaminated surfaces, per the CDC. HMPV is most commonly reported from winter through spring. There is no vaccine or treatment for the virus, the CDC notes, but HMPV can be diagnosed via testing by a healthcare provider. Supportive care includes drinking plenty of hydrating fluids and resting.
Measles outbreaks slow in South Carolina, Arizona, but Utah sees cases skyrocket past 400 -- Both Arizona and South Carolina, two states that recorded hundreds of measles cases in recent months, are reporting significant slowdowns in new cases reported this week. Utah, however, has now tracked more than 400 cases in an outbreak that began last year in the southwest corner of the state and has now spread to Salt Lake City and other areas.In Arizona, officials reported no new measles cases today, with the total still 56 for 2026. Last week, officials added only one case. Since last year, Arizona has recoded 276 measles cases, of which 97% occurred in people who were unvaccinated. The state has also documented 20 measles-related hospitalizations.Most of the Arizona cases have occurred along the Utah border, with Mohave County recording 214 cases since August 2025. In Utah, state officials say there are now 405 confirmed measles cases, with 98 recorded in the past three weeks. The new case count is 47 more than what was recorded at the end of last week, when state epidemiologists warned the public that 120 people had sought emergency care because of measles, with 31 hospitalized and three placed in the intensive care unit. Roughly half of the state’s cases have occurred in the Southwest Utah health district, home to several unvaccinated communities of Fundamentalist Latter Day Saints, a breakaway sect of Mormons. In contrast, South Carolina’s outbreak seems to be slowing, with only two new cases reported in an update yesterday. The case total now stands at 993. There are currently 42 people in quarantine and two in isolation. Of the 993 cases, 637 have occurred in school-aged children and 216 in children five years and younger. Of case-patients with known vaccination status, 927 have been unvaccinated, 19 have been partially vaccinated, 26 have been fully vaccinated, and 21 have unknown status.Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reaffirmed its commitment to the South Carolina Department of Public Health and the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to help contain and prevent measles outbreaks.“At South Carolina's request, CDC disease detectives from the agency's Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) are supporting on-the-ground response activities,” the CDC said. “Their specialized expertise in epidemiology and outbreak investigation will help identify transmission patterns, strengthen containment strategies, and guide targeted vaccination and prevention efforts to protect communities.
WHO warns war in Iran will lead to regional instability, public health crises -- The World Health Organization (WHO) is warning that the war in Iran is worsening public health conditions across the Middle East region. After 10 days of bombings and conflict in Iran, national health authorities in Iran report more than 1,300 deaths and 9,000 injuries, and Lebanon reports at least 570 deaths and more than 1,400 injuries. In Israel, authorities have documented 15 deaths and 2,142 injuries. The WHO said eight health care workers have died in Iran. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of Iranians and Lebanese have moved into collective shelters, which increase the risk of respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases. “Environmental hazards are also a raising concern. In Iran, petroleum fires and smoke from damaged infrastructure exposed nearby communities to toxic pollutants that potentially cause breathing problems, eye and skin irritation, and contaminated water and food sources,” the WHO said. The WHO said temporary airspace restrictions have disrupted the movement of medical supplies from WHO’s global logistics hub in Dubai, resulting in significant backlogs to emergency supply requests. The Middle East region is the most dependent on assistance and humanitarian need in the world, representing almost half of all people in need globally. “WHO calls on all parties to protect civilians and health care, ensure unimpeded and sustained humanitarian access, and pursue de-escalation of the conflict so communities can begin to recover and move towards peace,” the organization said.
Avian flu strikes more Indiana poultry facilities - Indiana continues to be a hotbed of avian flu activity, according to this week’s reports from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).The state had eight outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian flu in the past week in three counties, Elkhart, Lagrange, and Jay. Jay County had the largest outbreak, involving 20,600 birds on a commercial turkey meat farm. Elkhart County had four separate outbreaks, three of which involved duck meat facilities.Wisconsin reported two major outbreaks among egg-laying chickens on farms in Jefferson and Walworth counties, with more than 3 million birds affected.Also of note this week: another detection of avian flu at a live-bird market in Queens, New York, affecting 40 birds.In the past 30 days, APHIS has confirmed 77 avian flu outbreaks that affected 41 commercial farms and 36 backyard flocks, with 13.98 million birds affected.Wild-bird avian flu detections continue across the country, but have slowed down in the past week with only 29 noted by APHIS, including waterfowl in Kentucky and a bald eagle in Kansas.
CWD digest: Infected doe marks first case for Ouachita Parish, Louisiana - The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (LDWF) yesterday declared an emergency after the first-time detection of a deer with chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Ouachita Parish, in the northeastern part of the state. The infected white-tailed doe was harvested by a hunter in Deer Area 2 in January, an LDWF press release said. The Declaration of Emergency (DE) includes all of Ouachita Parish and parts of Lincoln, Jackson, Union, Morehouse, Caldwell, and Richland parishes, and the CWD control area is being expanded to include these areas. As of April 1, feeding and baiting will be prohibited in the control area’s Enhanced Mitigation Zone, but baiting will be allowed in the buffer zone. Deer-carcass transport rules also prohibit the export of certain deer parts. “LDWF has implemented its CWD Response Plan and will continue ongoing CWD surveillance efforts in the area,” the department said. “The DE is effective for 180 days, subject to ratification of the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission (LWFC).” A notice of intent will be introduced to announce permanent rules for the CWD control area to replace the DE after it ends. “The first CWD-positive deer was detected in Louisiana in 2022,” the release said. “At present, 55 CWD-positive deer have been detected, which include a single detection in Ouachita, Catahoula and Concordia parishes, with the remaining detections from Tensas Parish.” CWD is a fatal neurologic disease caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which spread through direct contact and environmental contamination. The disease affects cervids such as deer, moose, and elk.
Trump EPA touts enforcement. Ex-staffers credit Biden. - The Trump EPA is spotlighting its crackdown on polluters, which former officials say should be credited to the Biden administration. EPA released its annual enforcement report for fiscal 2025 on Monday. The agency study takes a celebratory tone for record results, standing in stark contrast to environmental groups’ findings earlier this year of historic downturn in enforcement during the Trump administration. “The results show that when we focus on swiftly addressing clear violations within the bounds of the law, we more efficiently achieve better enforcement and compliance,” said Jeffrey Hall, assistant administrator of EPA’s enforcement office, in a statement. Hall added: “We will be accountable to the American people for our promises. EPA’s enforcement and compliance assurance program will accomplish even more of our goals in the years ahead.”
Columbus files lawsuit tied to massive lead pipe replacement project — The City of Columbus is at the start of a 12-year journey to replace more than 50,000 lead or galvanized pipes as part of a federal mandate. In the short term, this work will cost residents some parking and disrupted service. But according to a newly filed lawsuit, in the long run, this project will cost Columbus taxpayers an estimated $1.2 billion. To get that money back, Columbus City Attorney Zach Klein is now suing seven companies. According to that suit, they are all connected to making or selling those pipes to the city. "If there's a way to hold the lead pipe manufacturing companies accountable and we can recoup that money so that we don't have to pass it on to the ratepayers, then sign me up," Klein said. Klein added that the lawsuit hinges on the claim that those companies were aware of the dangers. "What those manufacturers knew at the time and maybe concealed from cities like Columbus when they're selling their product to us is that they knew it was dangerous," Klein said. According to the lawsuit, Klein also hopes to create an abatement fund if his office is awarded any money as a result. "I can say that we're going to be very aggressive in this case and that every dollar we recover is one less dollar a ratepayer has to pay," he said. 10TV contacted all of the companies named in the lawsuit. Some offered "no comment" because of the active litigation. 10TV is still waiting to hear back from the others.
Improperly disposed wet wipes could shed microplastics in rivers -- Wet wipes conveniently clean and sanitize soiled surfaces and skin. Because some labels do not clearly indicate how consumers should dispose of them, these small cloths are often flushed down the toilet and released by sewage plants into waterways. Now, researchers report in ACS ES&T Water that some of these wipes break down into plastic fibers, or microplastics, that could harm aquatic life. "Plastic wet wipes are an underrepresented type of single-use plastic and are a source of macro- and microplastic pollution in our water," says Simran Hansra, the leader of the study. A staple in restaurants that serve messy food like barbecue, wet wipes were initially invented in the late 1950s to remove cosmetics. Over the years, companies expanded the applications of these small, damp cloths to include their substitution for traditional toilet paper. After the material is flushed, it usually ends up in treatment plants, which can clog pipes and require expensive repairs.Wet wipes can also move into waterways when combined sewage overflows release their contents after storms. Some wipes are made of cellulose, which breaks down rapidly in the environment, but others are made from plastics that could degrade into more stable microplastic fibers that may harm aquatic wildlife. To better understand the environmental impact of these disposable cloths, Hansra, Jacob Haney and Chelsea Rochman investigated how they break down in waterways.The researchers sampled the Don River in Toronto, Canada, for plastic pollution, including microplastics, in 2022 and shared their findings in a previous study. Now, they report that wet wipes were the second most abundant manufactured litter type behind plastic bags in the river samples, making up about a quarter of the collected litter. Of the wipes analyzed, 99% were plastic: 51% were polypropylene, 48% were polyester and the remainder were other polymers, including cotton. They calculated that about 620 pounds (280 kilograms; about the weight of a male grizzly bear) of wipes were floating in the river at the time they sampled.To gain insight into why wipes were being flushed, the team carefully examined labels on boxes of commercially available wipes from popular stores in Toronto and a popular online retailer.Only seven out of 72 product labels stated the material they were made of (e.g., cellulose or synthetic polymers), and 48 of the labels included disposal instructions, such as "flushable" or "do not flush." Because so many wipes were found in the Don River, the researchers conclude that many consumers are flushing wipes that shouldn't be sent down the toilet.In laboratory experiments, the team assessed how commercially available wipes degrade in simulated environmental conditions. As expected, cellulose wipes labeled as "flushable" broke down the fastest, losing the most mass over six weeks, followed by polypropylene and then polyester wipes.Both sun and water treatment increased mass loss compared with dry, dark conditions. All the wipes shed microscopic fibers during the experiments, which suggests that plastic-based wet wipes released into the environment could produce microplastics.
Trump’s MAHA farm plan muddies Republican messaging - There’s a dirty side to the Trump administration’s campaign to make American soil healthy again: sometimes the plan sounds like it was written by Democrats. Groups that cheered the Biden administration’s efforts on climate-smart agriculture hear a familiar ring in the Agriculture Department’s new pilot program in regenerative agriculture, which will pay farmers to pick from a list of Washington-approved conservation practices. Republicans might have cringed at the concept just a few years ago, squeamish about telling farmers how to farm. Now it’s a pillar of the Republican administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda, which asserts that healthier soil and less pesticide use translate to more nutritious food and hopefully a decline in diet-related illnesses. Agriculture officials held a webinar last week to update interested parties on the program, though many questions remain, participants said. “Doesn’t sound like there was much coordination between the administration and the Hill,” said Michael Happ, program associate for climate and rural communities at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, which has criticized the program for overlooking some beneficial conservation practices and favoring bigger farms. The Trump program is far from a carbon copy of Democratic priorities. Among other differences, officials said the regenerative agriculture program steers funding straight to farmers rather than some of the corporations and big agribusinesses that were enlisted in the Biden administration’s climate-smart agriculture efforts. The administration has also dropped the language of climate change, asserting that farmers should be rewarded simply for the measurable on-farm benefits of reduced plowing, managed livestock grazing and other conservation practices. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. highlighted the conservation programs’ recent shortcomings in an op-ed in Newsweek on Dec. 17. “Like so much in government, they have become entangled in political agendas and layers of bureaucracy that hinder access to critical resources, leaving well-meaning producers in the lurch,” they said. “Unlike previous administrations, President Trump listens to farmers and gives them what they need to thrive.” Still, the approach is close enough to the Democratic administration’s that organizations previously aligned with Biden-era priorities say the Trump team has the right idea — as long as a pared-down USDA can summon enough field staff to support the effort. Farmers will be paid to take on specific conservation practices that build the “soil microbiome” — a network of microorganisms that make soil more productive — and the USDA will verify benefits like carbon sequestration and water retention through soil testing that’s mandatory for farmers who enroll.As long as farmers engage in at least one practice from the list, such as planting cover crops, they can sign up for the experiment and receive incentive payments. The $700 million pilot is an offshoot of already-established conservation programs such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, meaning the basics of applying and working with the USDA are already familiar to most farmers. Better yet, according to Kennedy, the program’s principles offer improved nutrition. The initiative encourages “a model that emphasizes soil health, and with soil health comes nutrient density,” Kennedy declared at a December news conference with Rollins and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Trump’s repeal of national forest logging limits advances - The Trump administration’s proposed repeal of logging restrictions in roadless areas of national forests has landed at the White House for review. Officials propose to lift the roadless area conservation rule on about 44 million acres of the roughly 59 million acres where it applies across the national forest system. State-level roadless-area rules would remain in place in Colorado and in Idaho, where Republican Sen. Jim Risch negotiated the compromise with the Forest Service when he was the state’s governor in 2006. The review by the White House Office of Management and Budget is a key step toward releasing the proposed rule for public comment and eventually preparing a final rule. The proposal was submitted Friday, OMB reported.
Judge rules against timber companies in Alaska forest case - The Forest Service isn’t legally obligated to meet timber harvesting goals in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, a federal judge ruled Thursday.In a lawsuit brought by southeast Alaska timber interests, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason rejected an argument that the Tongass Timber Reform Act and related laws compel the Forest Service to pursue harvesting goals that meet market demand — a level well in excess of what the federal agency actually sells from the 16.7 million-acre forest.“Whether the harvest levels are designed to actually meet market demand is a discretionary agency decision, not a mandatory requirement imposed by the TTRA or the Forest Service,” Gleason wrote in granting the agency’s request to dismiss the case in the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska. Timber harvest objectives in the Tongass timber law are “infused with discretion,” Gleason wrote.
Can plants count? Study suggests they can track the number of events they experience - It's long been assumed that for an organism to learn, remember or draw conclusions, it needs a brain. But mounting evidence, including a recent Cognitive Science study, challenges that assumption, suggesting that neurons might not be necessary for complex information processing. The new study, authored by William & Mary Professor of Psychology Peter Vishton and his former student Paige Bartosh '25, indicates that plants may be able to count. Well … not in the way that humans can, but it appears that Mimosa pudica plants can somehow "keep track of the number of events in their environment," said Vishton. To the researchers' knowledge, this is the first evidence that plants can enumerate—the ability to distinguish between and track discrete events. Commonly known as the shy plant or touch-me-not plant, Mimosa pudica has delicate, frond-like leaves that fold inward when touched or shaken. They also close at night and reopen with the rising of the sun—a type of movement called nyctinasty. Vishton In a humid tent inside a windowless room in W&M's Integrated Science Center, Vishton and Bartosh exposed these plants to cycles of light and dark and observed a curious change in their movement. "In the first phase of our experiment, we used a 24-hour cycle. On days one and two, the plants were exposed to 12 hours of darkness and 12 hours of light. On day three, the lights remained off," Vishton explained. After around five repetitions of this cycle, the plants demonstrated increased movement in the "pre-dawn" hours on days when light could be anticipated, but not on the third day of total darkness. "This seems to suggest that the plants were able to 'learn," for lack of a better word, this three-day cycle and shift their movement in response," said Vishton. Modeling this shift yielded a logarithmic curve, meaning the plants' movement changed rapidly at first before gradually stabilizing into a consistent pattern. "This is the same pattern we see all the time in animal learning," said Vishton. "For example, if you are teaching a rat to perform a series of actions in a certain order, you would expect to see a period of time when they're figuring out the sequence and then a gradual increase in their ability to predict the pattern." But Vishton wanted to investigate another possible explanation for the plants' movement. Instead of tracking a number, they could be tracking time. "It's well established that many plants move in alignment with a 24-hour circadian rhythm, opening up in anticipation of the sun," said Vishton. "While no evidence suggests plants can track a 72-hour cycle—the duration of the three-day pattern in our study—we wanted to test that possibility." Decreasing the length of the days from 24 to 20 hours, Vishton and Bartosh observed an almost immediate shift in plant movement, following this adjusted pattern of light and dark. To further strengthen the evidence that the plants were moving based on enumeration, they performed a final experiment in which each three-day cycle was assigned a random length, ranging from 10 hours (five hours of light and five of dark) to 32 hours. Interestingly, on days shorter and longer than 12 to 24 hours, the pattern broke down. Vishton thinks this implies a minimum exposure window for plants to process the light-dark pattern and a maximum memory limit after which they "forget" the pattern. But within the 12 to 24-hour range, the plants continued to exhibit more movement on days when light could be anticipated than on dark days. "The simplest explanation for this result is that these plants are tracking the number of events that take place," said Vishton. "Not simply responding to time."
Eaton fire sent a pollution wave across Los Angeles, study shows - The 2025 Eaton fire's smoke did more than darken the sky: It generated a carbon monoxide and particulate matter surge that far exceeded Los Angeles County's average daily human-caused emissions, according to a new study led by researchers at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. The findings are published in the journal ACS ES&T Air.The findings show how a major urban wildfire can quickly become a regional air-quality crisis, sending harmful smoke across L.A. and raising concerns about respiratory, psychological, and other health effects that Keck School of Medicine of USC researchers are now studying.Researchers estimated the Eaton fire produced carbon monoxide at rates more than 20 times higher than L.A. County's average daily human-caused emissions."People could see the smoke, but they couldn't see the scale of the pollution it was carrying," said William Berelson, professor of Earth sciences, environmental studies, and spatial sciences at USC Dornsife and a co-author of the study. "This one fire was producing carbon monoxide on a scale that exceeded the entire county's usual daily emissions from human activity."Burning homes and other structures accounted for a larger share of the fire's carbon emissions than trees and shrubs did, helping explain why the Eaton fire created such a large regional impact.Researchers combined satellite imagery, computer-aided modeling of the smoke plumes, and on-the-ground air measurements to estimate what burned and track how smoke moved across the region in near real time. The air data included readings from the Carbon Census network of sensors deployed around Los Angeles by Berelson's team.The team estimated the Eaton fire released about 153 million kilograms of carbon (337 million pounds). Smoke reached downtown L.A. within hours of the fire's start, then moved west, reaching coastal areas several hours later. At some monitoring sites, levels of harmful fine-particle pollution known as PM2.5 exceeded the EPA's 24-hour health standard for one to three days.The January 2025 Los Angeles fires affected the region in different ways, but the Eaton fire stands out because its smoke moved directly into central and western Los Angeles, exposing communities far from the burn area. By contrast, early emissions from the Palisades fire were carried offshore by winds.The study suggests urban wildfires should be understood not only as disasters of flame and loss, but also as citywide air-quality emergencies with climate and public-health consequences.
Drinking water at risk long after wildfires, study warns Canada's drinking water can remain at risk long after wildfires burn out, according to a UBC-led global review that found water-quality impacts often emerge months or years later—not just immediately after a fire. Researchers analyzed 23 studies across 28 watersheds worldwide, comparing pre- and post-fire levels of sediment, nutrients, metals, organic carbon, ions and wildfire-fighting chemicals. Across climates, contamination often intensified over time, particularly when storms or snowmelt washed stored ash and debris into rivers.The findings carry particular weight for Canada, where wildfire activity has intensified. In 2023, over 15 million hectares burned, more than twice the previous national record. The study is published in the journal Science of The Total Environment.The review focused on studies tracking water quality for at least six months to determine whether impacts fade or grow."The same delayed contamination pattern kept appearing," said Raúl de León Rábago, study author and master's student in civil engineering.After the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, rivers showed elevated sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus and lead even where less than one-quarter of the watershed had burned. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo increased annual chemical treatment spending by roughly $500,000 to manage wildfire-related changes in raw water.In Alberta's southern Rockies following the 2003 Lost Creek wildfire, phosphorus and nitrogen remained high for years. Floods in 2013 washed stored ash and soil back into rivers, causing phosphorus levels to jump to seven to nine times higher, with some increases persisting more than 14 years downstream. Similar long-term effects have been documented internationally."Imagine emptying a bucket of ash into a bathtub," said Dr. Qingshi Tu, assistant professor in the faculty of forestry and environmental stewardship. "When the water is stirred, the ash resurfaces. That's what can happen in watersheds after large fires."Across the reviewed studies, wildfire activity increased sediment, nutrients, heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons—chemicals formed when vegetation and other materials burn. Smoke can also carry contaminants into unburned watersheds.Canada relies heavily on long-term fire retardants such as Phos-Chek in B.C. and Alberta. These products contain nutrients and trace metals that can fuel algal blooms and raise treatment costs. After the Fort McMurray wildfire, higher chemical dosing was required to treat wildfire-affected water.
Saharan dust swept into Europe in March, triggering 'dirty rain' episodes - Winter winds lofted clouds of dust from the Sahara Desert, carrying it north toward the Mediterranean and dispersing it widely across Europe in March 2026. When the dust combined with moisture-laden weather systems, a dirty rain fell in parts of Spain, France, and the United Kingdom.The animation below highlights the concentration and movement of dust throughout the region from March 1 to March 9. It depicts dust column mass density—a measure of the amount of dust contained in a column of air—produced with a version of the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model. The model integrates satellite data with mathematical equations that represent physical processes in the atmosphere.The animation shows dust plumes originating in northwestern Africa being blown both to the west across the Atlantic Ocean and north toward the Mediterranean. As plumes spread throughout Western Europe over several days, people observed hazy skies from southern England, where sunrises and sunsets took on an eerie glow, to the Alps in Switzerland and Italy, where a dust layer encroached on the Matterhorn.Not all of the dust remained aloft. Storms encountered some of the dust, causing particles to fall to the ground with rain and coat surfaces with a brownish residue. A low-pressure system, named Storm Regina by Portugal's weather service, moved across the Iberian Peninsula and brought so-called blood rain to southern and eastern Spain, along with parts of France and the southern UK in early March, according to news reports.Over the Mediterranean, areas of "dusty cirrus" clouds developed higher in the atmosphere, where dust particles can act as condensation nuclei for ice crystals, according to MeteoSwiss, Switzerland's Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology. Scientists are studying these clouds to better understand their formation and how they affect weather, climate, and even solar power generation.In a new analysis published in Solar Energy, researchers used NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), observations from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), and other satellite products to parse the effect of airborne Saharan dust on solar power in Hungary. They found that photovoltaic performance dropped to 46% on high-dust days, compared with 75% or more on low-dust days. They determined the greatest losses occurred because dust enhanced the presence and reflectance of cirrus clouds and reduced the amount of radiation that reached solar panels.Some research suggests more frequent and intense wintertime dust events have affected Europe in recent years. Researchers have proposed several factors contributing to these outbreaks, including drier-than-normal conditions in northwestern Africa and weather patterns more often driving winds north from the Sahara.
Most Saharan dust is generated by 'hidden thunderstorms' high above the desert -When Saharan dust reaches the UK and Europe, as a huge country-sized cloud did over the past few days, it can transform the sky. Tiny particles drifting in the atmosphere scatter blue light while allowing reds and oranges to reach us intact, producing beautiful sunsets.But these striking displays are also a reminder of how connected the Earth is. Dust drifting over my head in England may have rested on the dry surface of the Sahara for thousands of years, before a burst of wind lifted it into the atmosphere and carried it thousands of kilometers north.In spring, the massive temperature difference between the already-hot Sahara and still-snow-covered mountains in Europe can generate powerful low-pressure systems that sweep dust northwards. But these familiar weather systems are not actually responsible for most Saharan dust. Instead, much of it is produced by a special kind of desert thunderstorm—a process that climate models struggle to simulate.When faced with the question of how dust outbreaks will change as the climate warms, simulations from the latest generation of climate models suggest Saharan dust emissions could increase by up to 13% by the end of the century. If winds blow in the right direction, that could mean more dust reaching Europe.However, the real story of how Saharan dust is generated is more complicated—and much more interesting. During summer, the largest sources of dust shift westwards to countries like Algeria, Mali, Niger and Mauritania. To understand what drives these emissions, we deployed about 30 tons of meteorological equipment across the region, with the assistance of the Algerian meteorological service.This produced some enthralling results—most notably: around 80% of Saharan dust emissions in summer are produced by thunderstorms.These are special thunderstorms. Because the Saharan air is so dry, clouds often sit more than five kilometers above the surface. Rain falling from these storms usually evaporates long before it reaches the ground.The evaporation cools the surrounding air, which becomes dense and plunges downwards, spreading out rapidly when it hits the surface. As it spreads across the desert floor, this wall of wind scrapes up huge quantities of dust.Using satellites, we tracked more than 1,500 of these events. Many travel hundreds of kilometers across the desert, mostly at night, raising huge plumes of dust. In fact, these "dry thunderstorms" appear to be responsible for the vast majority of Saharan dust produced during summer.
8 dead in Michigan and Oklahoma as over 25 tornadoes hit central United States - YouTube videos - At least eight fatalities have been confirmed in parts of Michigan and Oklahoma as a severe weather outbreak spawned dozens of tornadoes across five states between March 5 and 6, 2026. Four fatalities were reported in Michigan and four were reported in Oklahoma, while injuries and widespread destruction were reported across the affect The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) received more than 25 tornado reports between March 5 and 6. While not all of these have been confirmed by the National Weather Service, some have been assessed, including the deadly tornado in Fairview, Oklahoma, which was rated an EF-2 on March 6. The first fatalities to be reported due to the outbreak were in Fairview, where a mother and daughter were killed after getting struck by the EF-2 tornado on US Highway 60 on March 5. Meanwhile, two more fatalities were reported in Okmulgee County after an apparent tornado struck a home northeast of Beggs, confirmed Sheriff Eddy Rice. Tornadoes caused at least four fatalities in Branch and Cass counties in Michigan, along with over a dozen who were injured. Three people were killed, and 12 were injured in the Union Lake area near Union City, according to the Branch County Sheriff’s Office. Three of the injured were hospitalized. One fatality and several injuries were reported in Cass County after a tornado touched down near Edwardsburg on the afternoon of March 6. Tornadoes were reported across multiple states, including Oklahoma, Michigan, Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas, through March 5 and 6. States of Emergency and/or Emergency Operations were activated in Michigan, Texas, and Missouri on March 5. SPC’s storm reports show that four tornadoes were reported across Oklahoma on March 5, while seven were reported on March 6. These include radar-confirmed tornado debris signatures near Helena, Jet, Jefferson, Tulsa, Collinsville, Inola, and Beggs. Meanwhile, at least seven tornadoes were reported across Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, and Calhoun counties in Michigan on March 6. Four tornadoes were reported in Kansas between March 5 and 6, while two were reported in Texas, and one was reported in Arkansas. It is to be noted that these reports remain preliminary and are yet to be fully confirmed by the NWS, and many more tornadoes have been reported that have not been included in the SPC storm reports.
Union City tornado becomes the earliest EF-3 on record for Michigan - 4 YouTube videos - The deadly tornado that struck Union City, Michigan, on March 6, 2026, was rated EF-3 after damage surveys by the National Weather Service (NWS). It is the earliest EF-3 recorded in Michigan and the strongest to strike the state in 49 years, with estimated peak winds exceeding 247 km/h (160 mph). Meanwhile, the tornado in Edwardsburg was rated EF-1, and an EF-2 rating was given to the Three Rivers tornadoes. The National Weather Service surveyed the tornado damage in the townships of Union City, Edwardsburg, and Three Rivers on March 8 and classified the deadly Union City tornado as an EF-3. While the rating is preliminary, the Union City tornado is the earliest occurrence of an EF-3 tornado for Michigan on record. The previous earliest EF-3 for any calendar year was an EF-3 that struck north of Ann Arbor on March 15, 2012. Meanwhile, the last EF-3 to strike Michigan was the Gaylord EF-3 tornado on May 20, 2022. With estimated peak winds of over 247 km/h (160 mph), it was also the strongest tornado to have struck Michigan since the F-4 tornado that struck Kalamazoo and Eaton County on April 2, 1977. The tornado touched down around 3.2 km (2 miles) west-southwest of Union City at around 16:35 EST on March 6 and tracked a path of approximately 6 km (3.7 miles) with a path width of 457 m (1 500 feet). It lifted off the ground at around 16:42 EST, 1.6 km (1 mile) east-northeast of Union City. At least three people were reported dead in Union City due to the tornado while over a dozen were injured, including three who were hospitalized. Part of the First Congregational United Church of Christ in Union City was damaged, although its nearly 150-year-old grand piano was spared. Widespread damage was reported across the tornado’s path. YouTube video Meanwhile, the Edwardsburg tornado in Cass County, which had claimed the life of a 12-year-old boy, was rated an EF-1 with estimated peak winds of over 152 km/h (95 mph). The tornado struck the boy’s home after touching down near the northwest of the intersection of Runkle Street and Conrad Road at around 15:11 EST, destroying an attached garage and damaging the front of his house. It then tracked a path of 21.6 km (13.4 miles), ending at around 15:35 EST, 1.6 km (1 mile) north of Shavenhead Lake. It also caused some minor roof damage as it moved across Yankee Street, east of Dailey Road.
Severe storms leave at least five dead in Indiana after tornado hits Lake Village and floodwaters sweep vehicles away - 3 YouTube videos - At least five people were reported dead across Indiana after severe storms triggered flooding and a destructive tornado between March 8 and 10, 2026. Two people were killed in Lake Village, Newton County, when a tornado destroyed multiple homes on March 10, while three others died in separate flooding incidents. Officials from the Lake Township Fire Department confirmed the two fatalities following the Lake Village tornado during a press conference early on March 11. Additional details about the victims had not yet been released. Meanwhile, flooding caused at least three fatalities across southern Indiana between March 8 and 10. Two people were found dead on March 10 after their vehicle was swept away by floodwaters near the East Fork White River on March 8. The vehicle was submerged in about 2.5 m (8 feet) of water when it was located near Earl Road and Lawrenceport Road on March 10. Another fatality was reported in Jackson County, where a 55-year-old man was found dead on March 8 after being reported missing near a flooded area east of Cortland. The victim, identified as Bradley Deaton, was a passenger in an airboat that had been attempting to assist people stranded in a submerged vehicle near County Road 400 East and State Road 258. Investigators said the boat experienced mechanical problems and was forced under a nearby bridge by swift floodwaters. The operator was able to rescue himself, but Deaton was swept downstream. Authorities said neither man was wearing a life jacket.
NWS damage survey confirms EF-3 tornado that killed two in Lake Village, Indiana - 3 YouTube videos -An EF-3 tornado struck Lake Village, Newton County, Indiana, during the evening of March 10, 2026, killing two people and destroying homes as a long-track supercell moved from northern Illinois into northwestern Indiana. A National Weather Service damage survey determined the tornado produced winds of about 240 km/h (150 mph) and tracked approximately 58.9 km (36.6 miles) across the region. The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that the tornado that struck Lake Village, Newton County, Indiana, during severe storms on March 10, reached EF-3 intensity following a post-storm damage survey. The tornado killed two people and caused significant damage after a long-track supercell moved from northern Illinois into northwestern Indiana. Survey teams from the NWS Chicago and Northern Indiana forecast offices conducted ground assessments along the tornado path to evaluate structural damage and determine the storm’s intensity using the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Based on the survey findings, the tornado was rated EF-3 with estimated winds of about 240 km/h (150 mph). The tornado developed just west of Aroma Park in Kankakee County, Illinois, before moving northeast across the Illinois–Indiana border and striking Lake Village. The storm continued toward the DeMotte area before dissipating. Preliminary survey information indicates the tornado remained on the ground for approximately 58.9 km (36.6 miles). Two residents aged 89 and 84 were killed when the tornado struck their home in Lake Village. The tornado formed within a long-lived supercell thunderstorm that produced a family of tornadoes across portions of northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. According to the National Weather Service, this supercell produced tornadoes in Livingston and Kankakee counties in Illinois and in Newton, Jasper, and Starke counties in Indiana. In addition to the EF-3 tornado affecting Lake Village, NWS surveys confirmed at least two other tornadoes associated with the same storm. These included an EF-1 tornado that tracked from southwest of Wheatfield to near Dunns Bridge, Indiana, and an EF-2 tornado west of Knox in Starke County with estimated peak winds of about 185 km/h (115 mph).
Over 130 000 customers lose power across Hawaii as Kona low brings damaging winds and flash flooding - 3 YouTube videos - Over 130 000 electricity customers across Hawaii lost power on March 13, 2026, as a powerful Kona low brought heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and thunderstorms to the islands. Wind gusts up to 126 km/h (78 mph) were recorded on Oʻahu while forecasters warned rainfall totals of 250–500 mm (10–20 inches) could raise the risk of flash flooding. Over 130 000 customers across Hawaii were affected by widespread power outages as a powerful Kona storm brought heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and thunderstorms to the islands on March 13. Utility officials said powerful winds and heavy rainfall damaged infrastructure serving windward Oʻahu, east Honolulu, and parts of Waikīkī. Wind gusts of around 80–130 km/h (50–80 mph) were reported in parts of the islands through March 13, along with flash flooding that triggered multiple landslides and road closures. A wind gust of 126 km/h (78 mph) was recorded at around 10:48 LT, about 5 km (3 miles) northwest of Schofield Barracks in Honolulu County. Meanwhile, a 113 km/h (70 mph) gust was recorded at around 13:50 LT, about 3 km (2 miles) northwest of Kailua. Flash flooding was reported across multiple parts of the islands, prompting road closures, including Kamehameha V Highway and Kawela Gulch on Molokaʻi, while water flowed over the Kamehameha Highway bridge in Maui. At approximately 17:50 LT on March 13, hazardous weather conditions damaged the only transmission line serving Windward Oʻahu and the Hawaiʻi Kai and East Honolulu areas, triggering widespread outages before partial restoration efforts began later in the evening. According to Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO), approximately 123 000 customers on Oʻahu, about 5 000 customers in Maui County, and around 3 600 customers on Hawaiʻi Island were without electricity as of 20:30 LT on March 13. The National Weather Service (NWS) Honolulu office issued multiple warnings during the event, including Flash Flood Warnings, High Wind Warnings, and a Winter Storm Warning for the summits of Hawaiʻi Island, reflecting the multi-hazard nature of the storm.
Heavy rain triggers floods, landslides and wind damage across parts of Java, leaving 7 dead and 4 missing, Indonesia - Heavy rainfall and strong winds affected parts of Java, Indonesia, on March 7 and 8, 2026, triggering floods, landslides and wind-related incidents that left at least seven people dead and four missing, according to regional disaster reports. Fatalities were reported in Bekasi Regency, West Java, and in Jember and Pasuruan regencies, East Java, while flooding also affected Banten and Jakarta. According to the ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), as of March 9, 2026, a total of seven fatalities were reported. Four deaths occurred in Bekasi Regency, West Java, while three additional fatalities were reported across Jember and Pasuruan regencies in East Java. Authorities also reported four missing persons in Bekasi Regency. Injury figures in East Java were inconsistent across reports, with ADINet listing two injured in the combined Jember–Pasuruan event summary, while BNPB reporting cited by Bernama said three people were injured in Pasuruan alone. The severe weather affected more than 53 500 people across Banten, Jakarta, West Java and East Java, according to ADINet. As of an early March 8 update, flooding in Jakarta inundated 105 neighbourhood units (RT) and 19 roads after heavy rainfall over the weekend, although later updates reported broader flooding. In West Jakarta, 26 residential areas were affected with water levels between 0.2–1 m (0.7–3.3 feet). In South Jakarta, flooding inundated 22 residential areas, with the highest water level reaching 1.7 m (5.6 feet) in Cipete Utara and Pela Mampang. In East Jakarta, 57 residential areas were affected, with water depths ranging from 0.25–1.6 m (0.8–5.2 feet). Flooding was also reported in Serang Regency, Banten, where ADINet listed 9 184 affected people following heavy rainfall, river overflow and strong winds on March 7. Flooding and related impacts forced 617 people to evacuate their homes. Of those displaced, 495 people were reported in Banten and 122 in Jakarta, with part of the displaced population accommodated in two evacuation centres. Strong winds associated with the severe weather also caused damage in parts of East Java. In Jember Regency, 19 houses were damaged, and one resident sustained minor injuries. The event occurred during the late phase of Indonesia’s wet season, which typically extends from October through March, when heavy rainfall frequently triggers flooding and landslides across parts of the country.
Severe flooding kills 42 across Kenya as heavy rains trigger flash floods in Nairobi - YouTube videos - Severe flooding killed at least 42 people across Kenya by March 9, 2026, after heavy rains triggered flash floods in Nairobi and other parts of the country over the weekend. Available reporting indicated that about 25–26 of the deaths were recorded in the capital, where floodwaters swept away vehicles, disrupted transport, and forced large-scale rescue operations. Heavy rainfall affected Nairobi and several other regions of Kenya in early March 2026, with the deadliest flooding reported after heavy rains from March 7 to 9. The Kenya Meteorological Department had warned that heavy rainfall exceeding 20 mm (0.8 inches) in 24 hours would affect multiple parts of the country between March 3 and 9. By March 9, authorities said at least 42 people had died nationwide. Available reporting indicated that about 25–26 of those deaths occurred in Nairobi, where floodwaters inundated low-lying neighborhoods, submerged roads, and affected residential and commercial districts. Floodwaters swept through parts of the capital after rivers and drainage channels overflowed. Fast-moving water carried away vehicles, and authorities later said 172 vehicles had been recovered as cleanup and rescue work continued. Roads in several districts became temporarily impassable as floodwaters submerged major transport routes, hindering emergency response operations in parts of the city. YouTube video Kenya Airways reported that several flights scheduled to land in Nairobi were diverted to the coastal city of Mombasa as severe weather and related operational constraints affected airport activity. President William Ruto ordered the release of relief supplies from the country’s food reserves to support households affected by flooding. Hundreds of families in impacted areas received emergency food assistance and other humanitarian support. Kenyan authorities deployed emergency responders, including soldiers, to assist with rescue operations and support affected communities. Emergency teams were tasked with evacuations, recovery operations, and the delivery of humanitarian assistance to flood-affected neighborhoods. YouTube video Several regions across Kenya experienced heavy rainfall and flooding during the same period. In the Maasai Mara National Reserve in southwestern Kenya, tourists and camp staff were evacuated ahead of further flooding. “A few days ago, we had the Mara River and the Talek River also burst their banks, so a lot of the tourists and camp staff had already evacuated the camps,” said Marc Goss, CEO of the Mara Elephant Project Trust. The government also announced it would cover hospital treatment costs and burial expenses for victims of the flooding. Officials indicated that recovery operations remained ongoing and warned that the confirmed death toll could increase as search operations continue in flood-affected areas.
Floods and landslides across Ecuador kill 11 and damage thousands of homes - Flooding and landslides in Ecuador have affected more than 46 000 people across the country since January 1, 2026, leaving 11 people dead and 24 injured, according to the latest update issued on March 13. Authorities report widespread impacts, including hundreds of flood and landslide events, overflowing rivers, and extensive damage to housing and infrastructure across multiple provinces. Heavy rainfall associated with Ecuador’s 2026 rainy season has triggered widespread flooding and landslides across the country since January 1, affecting numerous provinces and causing significant humanitarian impacts. According to the Ecuadorian Secretariat for Risk Management (SNGR), as of March 12, 11 people have died, and 24 others have been injured, while more than 46 000 people have been affected by rainfall-related disasters nationwide. Authorities report that more than 80 houses have been destroyed and 13 508 dwellings have suffered damage as floods and landslides impacted communities across multiple regions of the country. Since the beginning of the year, authorities have recorded 629 flood events and 612 landslides. As of March 12, 28 rivers are already overflowing, and another 34 rivers are at risk of overflowing, increasing the risk of additional flooding. The provinces most severely affected include Guayas, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Los Ríos, and Manabí.
Landslides kill at least 102 people in Gamo Zone, Ethiopia - Rain-triggered landslides in Gamo Zone, southern Ethiopia, killed at least 52 people earlier this week, with officials saying on March 12, 2026, that dozens of others were still missing. Authorities said rescue teams were continuing the search for missing people as the risk of additional slope failures remained elevated. Search operations were still underway after the slope failures, which followed heavy rainfall across the area. Reuters reported that the Gamo Zone communications office said 52 people had been confirmed dead and that 50 others were missing. The South Ethiopia regional state office also gave a death toll of 52. Other official figures in circulation on the same day were not fully aligned. The Associated Press (AP), citing Gamo Zone disaster response director Mesfin Manuqa, reported that at least 50 people had been killed and 125 were missing across three districts, while Al Jazeera later reported police figures of at least 64 deaths and 128 missing.The affected areas include Gacho Baba, Kamba, and Bonke districts, according to AP. Rescue teams were continuing search operations in terrain made unstable by persistent rainfall, and AP reported that at least one person had been pulled out alive from the mud.Regional authorities also warned residents in highland and flood-prone areas to relocate because continued rain could trigger additional landslides. The warning indicates the hazard was still active on March 12, with the immediate risk extending beyond the initial slope failures.The event developed after about a week of heavy rain. In steep and rain-saturated terrain, prolonged precipitation can weaken slopes and increase the likelihood of ground failure, especially where access is limited, and rescue operations are already underway. Update 15:20 UTC, March 13: The Gamo Zone communications office said at least 102 people are now believed to have died. The worst landslides struck Mazo Doysa kebele in Gacho Baba woreda, where 59 bodies have so far been recovered, according to regional police reports cited by the Ethiopia Observer.
Odds of a ‘Super El Nino’ growing, model shows. What that could mean– A renowned research and modeling organization’s most recent forecast shows the planet could see a strong or “Super El Nino” this year. El Nino is a cyclical and natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that then alters the world’s weather patterns. The phenomenon is dubbed a Super El Nino when the temperature rises at least 2.0°C above normal. La Nina is marked by cooler than average waters. Both shift precipitation and temperature patterns, but in different ways. El Ninos tend to increase global temperatures and La Ninas depress the long-term rise. La Ninas tend to cause more damage in the United States because of increased hurricane activity and drought, studies have shown. While we are currently in a La Nina phase, recent models from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest a 98% chance of a moderate El Nino event by August, with an 80% chance of a strong event and a 22% chance of a super event. “The European (ECMWF) computer model’s signal toward El Niño development later this year lines up with what many of the global climate models have been hinting at recently,” said Nexstar’s chief meteorologist Brian James. “While it’s still early and confidence on exact strength is limited this far out, the overall trend toward a developing El Niño by late summer or fall looks increasingly plausible.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its own outlook Monday, but notes that this time of year the models are notoriously uncertain when it comes to the late summer and beyond. NOAA expects the current La Nina phase to wane within the next several months and enter a neutral phase (a 60% chance from Feb. – April) with the “possibility of a transition to El Nino” after July. What would change with El Nino are pattern are still months away, but, if the ECMWF models correctly predict a Super El Nino this fall we may see hotter, drier winters in the northern US and Canada, along with increased rain and flooding across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. “Of course, the exact regional impacts will depend on how strong the event becomes and how quickly it develops,” James said, “but a transition toward El Niño generally tilts the odds toward a wetter southern U.S. and milder conditions across parts of the northern states heading into winter.” During La Nina, warm water sticks to a deeper depth, resulting in a cooler surface. And that reduces how much energy goes out into space, said study co-author Yu Kosaka, a climate scientist at the University of Tokyo. “When there is a transition from La Nina to El Nino, it’s like the lid is popped off,” releasing the heat, explained former NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto, who’s now with Climate Central. El Nino could bring some relief to those living in parts of the U.S. Southeast as the pattern tends to suppress vertical wind shear, stabilizing the atmosphere and potentially lowering the number of hurricanes. “As we get closer to the start of hurricane season, confidence is growing that this might be the quietest season since 2015, unless something very unusual happens,” Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, posted on X. “Of course, we could see an impactful storm somewhere (it only takes one), but this setup doesn’t leave much leeway for the Atlantic to have a lot of action.”
How a shift in the Gulf Stream could signal the collapse of a major ocean current system - Changes in the Gulf Stream, a strong ocean current in the Atlantic, could serve as an early warning of the imminent collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is a massive system of ocean currents that acts as a conveyor belt, moving heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic. The part of this system that flows along the east coast of the United States and then east toward Europe is the Gulf Stream. Scientists are concerned that if the AMOC were to collapse, it could trigger drastic climate shifts, especially in Europe, where temperatures could plummet.To better understand how the AMOC and the Gulf Stream are linked, researchers at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research at Utrecht University in the Netherlands modeled what would happen if the AMOC collapsed. They describe their work in a paper published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.The researchers used a high-resolution ocean simulation, which allowed them to see fine details of the ocean's circulation. They slowly added freshwater to the model's North Atlantic area to simulate melting ice sheets. This dilutes the ocean's saltiness and eventually slows and stops the AMOC conveyor belt.As it slows down, the Gulf Stream reaches a breaking point and suddenly jumps 219 km (136 miles) north in just two years. This shift occurred approximately 25 years before the AMOC collapsed in the simulation, suggesting it could serve as a warning signal in the real world.To see if any warning signs were already appearing, the team compared their model's behavior with satellite data from the last 30 years and deep-sea records dating back to 1965. They identified several red flags in both the real-world data and the model. The most significant is that the Gulf Stream has already begun to drift northward from the coast near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This northward shift is exactly what happened in the simulation just before the circulation failed.While the collapse of the AMOC may not yet be inevitable, these findings suggest it is weakening and may approach a tipping point faster than previously thought.
Antarctica undergoes 'Greenlandification' as ice melt accelerates -An article published recently in Nature Geoscience warns that Antarctica's ice masses have begun to experience a process scientists call "Greenlandification." The term refers to the unprecedented retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers and longer surface melt seasons.Like Antarctica, Greenland was originally expected to remain more stable despite climate change. However, recent Antarctic research contradicts this claim, showing rapidly increasing surface melt, shrinking sea ice, and higher rates of iceberg calving from ice shelves.Oceanic and atmospheric warming has rendered the Antarctic ice sheet more susceptible to rapid grounding line retreat for its glaciers, according to the comment paper by Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute and colleagues. In other words: because a glacier's grounding line marks where the ice no longer rests on a land mass but floats on the open ocean, the line's retreat inland indicates a melting glacier. Antarctica has also lost much buttressing due to the shrinking ice shelves, a process that Greenland has also witnessed since the 1980s.Mottram's team referenced satellite imagery to compare Antarctica and Greenland. Specifically, they used datasets from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), a powerful, recently developed satellite system that measures mass change and is operated via two satellites, one trailing the other.Jacqueline Austermann, a researcher at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, which is part of the Columbia Climate School, and professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, explained that because Earth's gravity exerts its pull on both satellites, "if one approaches a high mass first, it gets pulled a little towards it, and the satellites measure the distance between [each other]." The inter-satellite distances over time show that both Antarctica and Greenland demonstrate accelerating ice sheet mass loss, Mottram and colleagues wrote.The increasing resemblance between Antarctica and Greenland is a growing source of concern among researchers. In the past, "there [was] a big difference between Greenland and Antarctica," stated Jonathan Kingslake, a geochemist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and associate professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences.In an interview with Glacierhub, he explained that Greenland's climate has grown much warmer. Meanwhile, Antarctica's colder weather historically reduced melting rates and allowed for large floating extensions of ice connected to the main continent, known as ice shelves, to extend from its edges."When you talk about Greenlandification, you talk about the transition of Antarctica from that state… to a place more like Greenland where there is a lot of melting on the surface," Kingslake said. "And you don't get these floating ice shelves anymore." The paper cautioned that losing ice shelves will likely present massive consequences for Antarctica. Seventy-five percent of the Antarctic coastline has ice shelves, which buttress outlet glaciers and help slow the ice flow from the frozen continent. Without the vital protection that ice shelves provide, outlet glaciers will break apart even faster than before.
Antarctic sea ice rebounds in 2026, nearing average after four years -The area covered by Antarctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum level at 2.58 million square kilometers (996,000 square miles) on Feb. 26, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder.Every year Antarctic sea ice reaches a minimum level during the Southern Hemisphere's summer, so this is the point that scientists measure it for annual readings.This year's level ranks as the 16th smallest since satellite measurements began in 1979.The 2026 minimum sea ice extent is closer to average than in the past four years, and 730,000 square kilometers above the record low set in February 2023, the scientists said.But it was still 260,000 square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average."Through most of the year, Antarctic sea ice was well below the daily average," said Ted Scambos, senior research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES)."Then in January and February, strong winds from the south pushed sea ice outward in the Weddell Sea. This slowed the overall decline in extent, leading to a near-average minimum," Scambos said.The NSIDC cautioned that the 2026 figure is preliminary, noting that "continued melt conditions or strong onshore winds could still push the ice extent lower.""This year's return to less extreme conditions is not unexpected given the large year-to-year variation of Antarctic sea ice seen in the satellite record," said Walt Meier, scientist at the NASA NSIDC Distributed Active Archive Center.
US data shows Arctic winter sea ice could break last year's record low -- Arctic sea ice is headed for one of its smallest winter peaks on record, an AFP review of U.S. data showed Wednesday, as climate change shrinks the region's frozen cover and heightens geopolitical tensions. Formed when ocean water freezes, Arctic sea ice melts naturally in summer and reforms in winter, but the amount that returns has been declining due to human-induced planetary warming. The maximum sea ice extent in the Arctic reached nearly 14.22 million square kilometers (5.5 million square miles) on March 10, according to the data from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). If the trend continues before winter ends later this month, it would rank among the five smallest ice covers in four decades of satellite monitoring, possibly even breaking last year's record. While ice has gone down in the last few days, it can still go back up, said Seamus McAfee, an NSIDC spokesman. "But so far, it is looking like it could be a very significant extent, perhaps one of, if not the lowest, in the record," McAfee told AFP. Last year, Arctic sea ice reached an all-time low on March 22, at 14.31 million square kilometers, according to the NSIDC. Previous lows were set in 2016, 2017 and 2018. The NSIDC has yet to have an exact date for the 2026 maximum sea ice extent, McAfee said, adding that it would issue a press release once that becomes clearer. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, told AFP that this year would be among the lowest five on record. Gilles Garric, polar oceanographer at French climate research institute Mercator Ocean Toulouse, said this winter was among the "top three" so far. "The sirens are blaring that we're headed for a hothouse planet with massive devastation around the world," said Shaye Wolf, climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity, a U.S.-based environmental group. The last three years have been the hottest globally on record, as rising greenhouse gas emissions drive global warming. The polar regions are warming faster than the global average, especially the Arctic. Experts say the warming El Niño weather phenomenon could return later this year, which could send temperatures to new heights. "Given that the Arctic is warming at 3-4 times the global average rate, we are likely to continue to observe continued Arctic warming, loss of multi-year ice," Burgess told AFP. The consequences of low winter sea ice could include "potentially faster and more extensive summer melt," she said. While the Arctic reached a new low, the situation improved in Antarctica as sea ice coverage came closer to its annual summer average after four years of extreme lows, the NSIDC reported on Monday. Unlike melting land ice such as glaciers or ice sheets, shrinking sea ice does not directly raise ocean levels, but its loss threatens ecosystems. Many species, including polar bears in the Arctic and emperor penguins in Antarctica, rely on sea ice to breed and feed. "But Arctic warming, driven by fossil fuels, puts us all in peril," said Wolf. "We're closer than ever to irreversible tipping points that will forever alter the world we know. Rapidly getting off fossil fuels is the only way to pull back from the brink," he added.
The sea is higher than we thought and millions more are at risk, study finds - Climate change's rising seas may threaten tens of millions more people than scientists and government planners originally thought because of mistaken research assumptions on how high coastal waters already are, a new study said. Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments, calculating that about 90% of them underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of 1 foot (30 centimeters), according to Wednesday's study in the journal Nature. It's a far more frequent problem in the Global South, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and less so in Europe and along Atlantic coasts.The cause is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured, said study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands. And he attributed that to a "methodological blind spot" between the different ways those two things are measured. Each way measures their own areas properly, he said. But where sea meets land, there's a lot of factors that often don't get accounted for when satellites and land-based models are used. Studies that calculate sea level rise impact usually "do not look at the actual measured sea level so they used this zero-meter" figure as a starting point, said lead author Katharina Seeger of the University of Padua in Italy. In some places in the Indo-Pacific, it's close to 3 feet (1 meter), Minderhoud said.Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet (1 meter)—as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century—waters could inundate up to 37% more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said.That would trigger problems in planning and paying for the impacts of a warming world.For 17-year-old climate activist Vepaiamele Trief, the projections aren't abstract. On her island home in the South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu, the shoreline has visibly retreated within her short lifetime, with beaches eroded, coastal trees uprooted and some homes now barely 3 feet (about 1 meter) from the sea at high tide. On her grandmother's island of Ambae, a coastal road from the airport to her village has been rerouted inland because of encroaching water. Graves have been submerged and entire ways of life feel under threat."These studies, they aren't just words on a paper. They aren't just numbers. They're people's actual livelihoods," she said. "Put yourself in the shoes of our coastal communities—their lives are going to be completely overturned because of sea level rise and climate change."
'Scientists' Dump 65,000 Liters Of Chemicals Into Ocean In Geoengineering Experiment | -- In a move that’s raising alarm, researchers have poured 65,000 litres of sodium hydroxide into the Gulf of Maine, claiming it’s a step toward combating climate change through geoengineering. With unknown effects on marine life, many are worried this experiment reeks of tinkering that could backfire. The trial, dubbed the LOC-NESS project, took place off the Massachusetts coast last August, with scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution leading the charge. They argue that boosting ocean alkalinity could suck more CO2 from the atmosphere, turning it into harmless baking soda. Yet, as globalist agendas push these unproven fixes, freedom-loving skeptics see it as another layer of control over nature without public consent. Over four days, the team added the alkaline chemical, tagged with red dye for tracking, to waters 50 miles off Boston. “These early results demonstrate that small-scale OAE deployments can be engineered, tracked, and monitored with high precision,” said principal investigator Adam Subhas of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. “We need independent, transparent research to determine which solutions might work.” The method, known as Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE), aims to mimic and accelerate the ocean’s natural CO2 absorption. As the document details, the oceans already trap around 38,000 billion tonnes of CO2 as dissolved sodium bicarbonate. By resetting the pH with sodium hydroxide, the scientists boosted it from 7.95 to 8.3—matching pre-industrial levels—and measured 10 tonnes of carbon entering the water immediately. In the best-case scenario, they estimate the dump could absorb about 50 tonnes of carbon over a year, equivalent to the yearly emissions of five average citizens. But that’s a drop in the bucket compared to industrial outputs, and it doesn’t address the hypocrisy of governments preaching emission cuts while funding these chemical interventions. Critics aren’t buying the hype. Gareth Cunningham, Director of Conservation and Policy at the Marine Conservation Society, told the Daily Mail: “These approaches are resource-intensive and their ecological impacts are still poorly understood.” He added: “Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement is a short-term fix that doesn’t address the behaviours driving climate change and ocean acidification.”
Kīlauea eruption sends ash plume to 9 km (30 000 feet), disrupts flights near Hilo, Hawaii - Episode 43 of the ongoing eruption at Kīlauea began at about 09:17 LT on March 10, 2026, producing lava fountains exceeding 400 m (1 300 feet) from vents inside Halemaʻumaʻu crater, according to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Tephra fallout forced the closure of part of Highway 11 and disrupted flights at Hilo International Airport as an ash plume rose to about 9 km (30 000 feet) above sea level. Lava fountains quickly intensified after the eruption began. According to HVO, fountains from the south vent reached about 350 m (1 150 feet), while fountains from the north vent reached about 300 m (1 000 feet). Maximum fountain heights during the episode exceeded 400 m (1 300 feet), with later observations showing the south vent reaching approximately 399 m (1 310 feet) and the north vent slightly under 300 m (985 feet). The eruption produced significant tephra fallout downwind of the summit. Fragments up to 7.6 cm (3 inches) in diameter were reported in Volcano Village and Mauna Loa Estates, while Royal Hawaiian Estates reported fragments up to 1.3 cm (0.5 inches) along with strands of Pele’s hair. Continuous fallout covering the ground was reported at overlooks within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and near Volcano Golf Course. According to the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency, Highway 11 was closed between mile markers 24 and 40 after falling volcanic debris created hazardous travel conditions. Temporary closures were also implemented near the summit area within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park due to volcanic hazards. Flights were disrupted as ash and tephra affected the region around Hilo International Airport. According to a statement from Hawaiian Airlines, five remaining round-trip flights between Honolulu and Hilo were canceled, and two additional flights were diverted to Kona because of volcanic ash from the eruption. Flight tracking data from FlightAware showed that at least two Southwest Airlines flights to Hilo were also canceled. According to the Hawaii Department of Transportation, Hilo International Airport remained open during the ongoing Volcano Alert Level WARNING, although airlines advised travelers to monitor their flight status. According to the National Weather Service, an Ashfall Warning was issued for areas downwind of the volcano. The National Weather Service and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center reported the eruption plume reaching approximately 9 km (30 000 feet) above sea level, with winds from the south pushing the plume northward. HVO reported precursory activity occurred earlier in the morning when lava overflow from the north vent was observed at approximately 08:20 LT (18:20 UTC), preceding the onset of sustained lava fountaining. Lava flows generated during the eruption spread across the crater floor and covered roughly one-third of the surface of Halemaʻumaʻu crater. According to HVO, gases released during the eruption include water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. Sulfur dioxide reacts in the atmosphere to form vog, or volcanic smog, which may degrade air quality and cause respiratory irritation downwind of the volcano. Tephra produced by lava fountains consists of volcanic ash, pumice, scoria, Pele’s hair, and other glassy fragments. Larger fragments typically fall near the vents, while lighter particles may travel farther depending on wind conditions. According to the USGS, lava flows during this episode remained confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater and the southwest side of Kaluapele caldera. The volcano remains at Volcano Alert Level WARNING and Aviation Color Code RED, according to the USGS. The eruption ended at 18:21 HST on March 10 (04:21 UTC, March 11).
North Dakota Judge Voids CO2 Storage Permit for Summit Carbon Solutions Project -- The prospects for Summit Carbon Solutions’ long-planned carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project dimmed this week when a North Dakota judge revoked Summit’s permit to permanently sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) in underground storage.The CO2 storage site was permitted by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) under state law that allows the commission to “amalgamate” underground pore space, but South Central Judicial District Judge Jackson Lofgren found that the law allows “for the taking of the landowners’ pore space without just compensation being paid prior to the taking,” putting the law in violation of the state constitution. It is the second North Dakota district court to find the law unconstitutional.Summit’s project, dubbed Midwest Carbon Express, would capture CO2 from dozens of ethanol plants (orange dots in map below) and other industrial sources in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. The CO2 would be aggregated and transported by pipeline to North Dakota, where it would be permanently sequestered in deep geologic formations. Summit’s project and similar efforts have all been beset to some degree by a combination of costs, demand uncertainty, complexity, permitting, infrastructure and local opposition (see We’ve Only Just Begun).
‘Hurting peoples’ pocketbooks’: Hochul pushes to pare back NY climate law - — New York’s Democratic governor wants to weaken one of the nation’s most ambitious climate laws in the name of affordability. It’s a major shift for Gov. Kathy Hochul, who once championed New York’s climate efforts on a global stage and rejected permits for gas power plants.. The moderate Democrat has laid the groundwork to seek changes in secretive, closed-door budget negotiations in Albany in the coming weeks. “There were so many unforeseen factors,” Hochul told reporters on March 2, speaking of the 2019 climate law that set aggressive targets for curbing pollutants. “There’s going to be enormous costs.” If Hochul succeeds in revising the 2019 law, it could be the most significant rollback on climate action in a liberal bastion since progressives embraced the “Green New Deal” concept.
Judge strikes down Biden climate policy for new homes - A federal judge in Texas has thrown out a Biden administration climate policy that sought to set strict energy standards for homes being built for people with certain federally backed mortgages.The ruling by Judge Jeremy Kernodle of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas is a victory for a coalition of Republican state attorneys general and a powerful homebuilders’ advocacy group, which sued to block the Biden-era regulation establishing the policy.The regulation would have required energy-efficient features such as stronger insulation and upgraded heating and cooling systems in homes built for people with mortgages insured by programs in the Department of Agriculture and Department of Housing and Urban Development.Supported by environmental advocates, the regulation was part of former President Joe Biden’s efforts to use federally supported construction, including new homes and disaster rebuilding, to address climate change.
Trump admin’s NEPA fight lands at Supreme Court - The Supreme Court next year will decide whether the U.S. Air Force’s detonation of munitions on a beach in northern Guam violated federal environmental law — a legal fight that a conservative federal appellate judge last year said should have never been allowed to proceed. In a short order Monday morning, the justices granted a petition filed by the Trump administration seeking to overturn a ruling by a West Coast federal appeals court that sided with local activists pushing the Air Force to conduct a National Environmental Policy Act review of its operations on Guam’s Tarague Beach. The Supreme Court’s decision to review the case — which the high court was not required to do — will delay justice for the residents of Guam, said Monaeka Flores of Prutehi Guåhan, the activist group that has sued the Air Force for running afoul of NEPA. “We continue to carry many scars of war and war games that remain in our landscape, our bodies, and in our hearts and minds,” Flores said in a Monday statement. “We deserve justice for the harms that we continue to endure through the military’s ongoing practice of open detonation of hazardous materials.”
Greens sue Interior over slashed protections for Alaska corridor - Environmental groups sued the Interior Department Tuesday over the Interior Department’s decision to undo development protections for more than 2 million acres of public land in Alaska.Close to a dozen environmental groups sued Interior over the move to open up the areas on either side of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System that have been in protected status since the 1970s. State leaders for years have argued those lands should be used for energy and mining development.The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska, alleges that Interior’s decision to rescind protections on about 2.1 million acres in Alaska violated federal law and asks the court to prevent the department from opening the area to development. The corridor follows the Alaska pipeline and the Dalton Highway and connects the Kanuti National Wildlife Refuge and Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge to the south to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to the north. The Gates of the Arctic National Park lies in between.
The Iran war is roiling more than oil - President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran could snarl the global flow of chemicals needed to make everything from critical minerals and EV batteries to fertilizers and cleaning supplies. The escalating conflict in recent days has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. The waterway off Iran’s coast plays a crucial role in the global economy, and experts have warned it could take weeks to reopen and return to prewar traffic. But the strait is more than a choke point for oil. It’s also a critical pathway for a byproduct of oil and gas production: sulfur. Ships moving through the strait carry 24 percent of the world’s sulfur, a feedstock for sulfuric acid used to make metals like nickel and copper, as well as fertilizer and household cleaning products. Now that flow has screeched to a halt. “I have heard that traders are already struggling to source any,” Ivanhoe Mines CEO Robert Friedland wrote in a post on X. “Sulphuric acid prices will therefore significantly increase across Africa … and if the disruption lasts longer than ~3 weeks, copper oxide operations will have to close as they’ve run out of acid.” The Iran war is significantly driving up the cost of U.S. goods and complicating Trump’s push to tamp down on fears of inflation and affordability ahead of the midterms. While the national focus has largely remained on oil, the growing military conflict in the Middle East is slowly entangling a greater number of products. Eric Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, said manufacturers based in Asia are already having to issue force majeure notices, which communicate that a contract cannot be fulfilled due to unforeseen circumstances, for a range of oil- and sulfuric-acid-based products. “Sulfuric is a biggie,” Byer said. “It’s top of mind for our industry and a variety of different things,” which includes products from batteries to toilet bowl cleaners. Several of the materials caught in the logjam have impacts — either directly or indirectly — on U.S. food production, including sulfur used to make phosphate fertilizer. While the U.S. sources sulfur mainly from Canada, for instance, price shocks related to the Persian Gulf ripple across international and domestic markets. Around a third of the world’s fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz, according to the data company Kpler, with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as major sources. Vital fertilizer ingredients including urea and ammonia move through the region, and facilities need natural gas as a feedstock to make fertilizer. The president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, Zippy Duvall, this week urged the Trump administration to offer protection to ships moving through the strait, citing the squeeze on fertilizer. “These supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher at a time when farm margins are already extremely tight and many farmers are underwater,” Duvall said in a letter to Trump on Monday. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is reinforcing the urgency the U.S. and its allies face to independently produce rare earths critical to weapon systems and motors, said Jack Baxter, a lead analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. But the U.S. has a long way to catch up. Baxter co-authored a report that found supplies of rare earths outside of China will surge by 2030, but even that increase will still fall short of the demand in supply chains that Beijing dominates. That, in turn, could put pressure on companies poised to pump out rare earths outside of China, including U.S.-based MP Materials and Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Producers of other minerals like copper and graphite are already feeling the pressure amid the growing conflict with Iran. The flow of sulfur exports out of the Persian Gulf — which account for roughly half of global seaborne trade — is already being affected and could drive prices beyond prewar record highs, said Alon Olsha, a senior analyst in metals and mining at Bloomberg Intelligence. “That matters for copper,” said Olsha. “In the African Copperbelt, sulfuric acid is essential for leaching, underpinning around 45% of [Democratic Republic of the Congo] output or 6% of global supply.” It also matters for nickel. Indonesia, which produces more than 50 percent of global nickel, imports roughly 75 percent of its sulfur from the Middle East, according to the Oregon Group. Some high-pressure acid leaching plants hold only one to two months of sulfur inventory, according to the group, and sulfur prices were already high before the conflict. A sulfur squeeze could also affect the production of mixed nickel-cobalt hydroxide precipitate, or MHP, which requires sulfur as a feedstock and is largely sourced from Middle Eastern nations, according to Benchmark. MHP is a feedstock for EV batteries. Saudi Arabia was the largest exporter of sulfur to Indonesia last year, according to Benchmark, while the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain supplied large volumes of the commodity. Unlike oil and gas, sulfur cannot be moved through a pipeline and must be shipped as dry bulk freight. “With MHP prices already elevated in 2026 compared with 2025, shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz could exert further upward pressure by restricting supply once existing inventory is exhausted,” Benchmark analysts wrote. An extended conflict could also push up natural graphite prices in the coming months due to rising shipping costs. “The impact on synthetic graphite prices could be more severe, as petroleum coke is one of the foremost feedstocks in its production. As oil output falters, availability of this byproduct will tighten,” Benchmark wrote. “Broadly, the conflict is likely to raise input costs and disrupt raw material flows as well as retail EV demand.” Another chemical that Byer, with the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, said he is paying attention to is citric acid, commonly known for making sodas and candies sour, but also used to descale water. Major supply chain issues haven’t hit U.S. chemical manufacturers yet, he said. But they’re on borrowed time. “If it stops in another week or so, I think we’ll be OK,” Byer said. But if the conflict persists through “the end of the month … then I think we’re going to have some significant issues,” he said. Crude oil isn’t only an issue at gasoline pumps, it’s also the building block for plastics, paints, polyester clothing, some pharmaceuticals, construction materials, the list goes on. “Oil-based products are in jeopardy of being limited or out of stock in the next few weeks, just because of the sheer crude factor,” Byer said.
Rockies Express Compressor Stations Turn Waste Heat into Power -Marcellus Drilling News - Tallgrass Energy is the majority owner of the Rockies East Express (REX) pipeline — a 1,712-mile pipeline that runs from Colorado and Wyoming to Ohio. REX was built to bring then-abundant natural gas from the West to markets in the Midwest (such as Chicago) and the East via connections to other pipelines. Then, the Marcellus and Utica happened, forever changing the natural gas landscape in the United States. Nobody in the Midwest and East wanted Western gas anymore. So in 2015, Tallgrass reversed the flow for a portion of REX, from Monroe County, OH to Mexico, MO (see 1.8 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica Gas Heads West on REX Starting Aug 1). Three of the compressor stations along REX’s eastern Zone 3 (that flow Marcellus/Utica molecules) will be fitted with technology to turn waste heat into electricity.
Texas emerges as data center hot spot - — Developers have set their sights on Texas as the next potential hot spot for data center build-outs, even as the state’s grid manager is still figuring out how to serve an expected surge in power demand. Speakers at a conference here last week said Texas’ mostly isolated power grid, combined with a lack of federal oversight from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Texas’ business-friendly ethos, have made it stand out to investors. “Clearly, Virginia has been a leader up to this point, but it’s starting to get to a level of saturation,” said Jim Burke, CEO of power giant Vistra, told a crowd at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “Texas has a lot of advantages.” The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s main power grid operator, last year saw a spike in applications from data centers and other large loads asking to draw 75 megawatts or more from the grid. The nonprofit grid manager received 225 requests to interconnect in 2025, compared with 152 from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Pa. lawmakers advance bill to help towns set guidelines on data center construction - A state House committee is advancing measures meant to protect Pennsylvanians from negative effects of new data centers.One measure would require the centers to report their annual water and energy uses.The other would create a model law that towns and cities could adopt to set guidelines for how and where data centers could be built.Both bills passed the Democratic-controlled House Energy Committee along party lines.Rep. Elizabeth Fiedler (D-Philadelphia) said data centers need to be transparent about their potential impacts.“That is exactly what this legislation aims to do, to make sure there’s transparency and fairness, and make sure the people who live in this commonwealth are protected from any adverse impacts,” Fiedler said.Republican lawmakers said the bills could make the state less competitive in attracting data centers.Rep. Mike Armanini (R-Elk/Clearfield) said data centers could be the next “industrial revolution.”“ We can’t miss out on this opportunity and I fear with the way this legislation is written now, it is going to be faulty and we are not going to win this. We must win this,” Armanini said.The massive computing warehouses are responsible for a huge increase in new electricity demand, which is making prices go up. The proposed facilities are also stirring controversy in host communities, such as Springdale, where residents are concerned about an increase in noise and pollution.The grid operator for the region that includes Pennsylvania, PJM, said data centers account for nearly all of projected demand growth.PJM has capped capacity costs until 2030, after pressure from governors in its service region. Capacity markets are used to ensure a future supply of reliable power; this insurance-type cost is a fraction of an electric bill.The legislation in the state House is part of a few efforts in Harrisburg to make sure data center demand doesn’t hurt ordinary people. The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission is considering optional guidance for how utility companies handle data centers and one lawmaker has proposed making such guidance mandatory. Gov. Josh Shapiro is calling for data center companies to bring their own power supplies, so as not to impact residential electric customers.
Central US grid manager speeds up gas, battery project reviews - - The grid operator for the central United States selected another 8 gigawatts of natural gas and battery storage projects for fast-track treatment under a process approved by federal regulators last year.This is the third set of projects chosen for expedited study by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) in just six months, following forecasts of surging electricity demand growth driven by data centers that power artificial intelligence.In all, MISO has chosen 27 GW of new power plants for expedited study — an amount roughly equal to the generating capacity in the state of Indiana. Aubrey Johnson, MISO’s vice president of system planning, said the Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) process is needed to help states in the region maintain a reliable grid as demand grows.“The interest we continue to see reflects both the urgency and the opportunity to develop a clear, timely path to interconnection, and ERAS is helping us provide that in the near term,” he said in a statement.
WV Senate Passes Bill for Gas-Powered Data Centers and Microgrids - Marcellus Drilling News - The West Virginia Senate approved House Bill (HB) 4983 on Wednesday, establishing the certification process for new data centers and the gas-fired microgrids intended to power them. This is a key piece of the “gas-to-data-center” story we’ve been following. The final version includes new language requiring developers to study water usage, addressing local concerns while still providing a regulatory pathway for the “behind-the-meter” generation projects that are currently the primary bridge solution for the AI industry.
Electricity costs in PJM climbed 56% in 2025 - - The burst of current and planned data center development in mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes states led to a 56 percent increase in overall wholesale electricity prices to $80.5 billion last year, the region’s market monitor reported Thursday. “The price impacts have been very large and are not reversible,” said Joseph Bowring, president of Monitoring Analytics, in his annual “state of the market” report for PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. regional power market. Prices will continue to rise unless power supply challenges tied to demand from large data centers are resolved in the next few months, Bowring said. PJM has fallen far behind the eight ball in connecting power generation fast enough to meet growing demand from U.S. tech companies developing artificial intelligence, he added, putting the region increasingly at risk of power shortfalls. PJM coordinates power flows to 67 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia and operates markets that determine spot and long-term electricity prices.
RWE to Invest $19 Billion in U.S. Gas Power as Demand Jumps -- Germany-based utility giant RWE is expanding its U.S. portfolio beyond renewables, focusing a large part of planned $19 billion investments in the United States by 2031 on gas-fired power generation. RWE – which ditched U.S. offshore wind last year after the Trump Administration signaled renewables would not be a priority and wouldn’t be supported going forward – is now betting big on flexible gas peaking capacity in the United States, where electricity demand is soaring and gas is cheap and abundant. “In the US, we are broadening our portfolio and now focusing on gas in addition to renewables,” RWE’s chief executive Markus Krebber said on Thursday in an announcement of the company’s planned investments between 2026 and 2031. RWE intends to expand its business in the U.S. “even more than before,” investing 17 billion euros, or $19.3 billion net – almost half of all planned investments of 35 billion euros, or $40 billion. The German firm expects its installed capacity in the U.S. to increase from 13 gigawatts (GW) today to 22 GW by 2031. “In addition to wind and solar power plants and battery storage facilities, the build-out will also include flexible generation. The focus here is on adding flexible gas peaking capacity,” RWE said. The U.S. sees unprecedented power demand growth—AI infrastructure, data centers, and advanced manufacturing are driving the first meaningful growth in U.S. power consumption since the 1990s. The growth is set to average about 2% each year over the next decade, making new electricity generation capacity critical to supporting the advance in AI and the onshoring of manufacturing. “Natural gas will benefit significantly from the rising electricity demand and the requirement for 24/7 uninterrupted supply. It is most flexible among all energy sources and an abundant domestic resource,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a report last year.
Energy Department touts $1.9B for grid upgrades - The Energy Department announced Thursday it is opening up $1.9 billion in funding aimed at helping upgrade the U.S. power grid.Projects selected through the funding opportunity, which is made available through the bipartisan infrastructure law, would invest in grid upgrades at a time the Trump administration is confronting rising electricity demand and concerns over resource adequacy.“The United States must increase grid capacity to meet demand, and ensure the grid provides reliable power — day-in and day-out,” Katie Jereza, assistant secretary for the Office of Electricity, said in a statement.Jereza said the so-called SPARK funding opportunity will help “stabilize and optimize grid operations to strengthen it for rapid growth.” Projects that receive the funding would need to demonstrate reconductoring — or the replacement of existing power lines with higher‑capacity conductors — paired with other technologies that can expand grid capacity and increase operational efficiency, the department said in a release Thursday.
Central Ohio power outages ‘the worst in more than 10 years,’ AEP says — Central Ohio is facing its most extensive power outage in more than a decade after strong winds swept through the region Friday, leaving thousands without electricity Saturday morning.AEP Ohio said in a message to customers on Saturday that “damage to electric infrastructure across our region is the worst in more than 10 years.” More than 2,700 workers are in the field repairing lines and equipment, as the utility company pledged to continue efforts until all customers have power.“We know it is frustrating to be without power,” AEP Ohio said. “Crews worked through the night and are committed to updating you as soon as they can … we won’t stop until you and your family have power. Thank you for your patience as they work.” As of 11:30 a.m. Saturday, more than 47,000 outages were reported in Franklin County alone on AEP Ohio’s website. Outage totals for other counties include:
xAI gets air permit for unauthorized gas turbines - -- A second Memphis-area data center owned by Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI has received a Clean Air Act permit to generate its own power on-site following accusations that it was doing so in violation of federal law.The permitting decision comes just one week after an xAI official discussed the Southaven, Mississippi, data center with President Donald Trump at the White House at an event where technology companies committed to paying for the electricity their data centers use, including by generating their own power.Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX, which is merging with xAI, told Trump that the supercomputing facility known as Colossus 2 was being built “because of your work on this issue.“We want to be on your team to deliver a big win for the American people,” she said. “XAI will therefore commit to develop 1.2 gigawatts of power as our supercomputer’s primary source and that will be for every additional data center as well.”The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality issued the permit for 41 natural gas turbines generating 1.2 gigawatts of power at a public hearing today.But Colossus 2 was already being powered by roughly 20 such turbines before the permit was issued, making it the second xAI data center accused of breaking federal clean air rules.As MDEQ was weighing the permit last month, the Southern Environmental Law Center and NAACP threatened to sue xAI for operating the turbines without appropriate approvals. The same groups are also challenging a permit issued for another xAI facility located just over the state line in South Memphis, Tennessee. That facility was similarly powered by more than 30 gas turbines for more than a year before xAI received a permit in July 2025.In a statement, the groups accused Mississippi regulators of rushing the decision and not adequately responding to community comments opposing the permit. Those comments included critiques that the draft permit underestimated pollution from the facility and did not take into account emissions from the unpermitted turbines currently present at the site.“Mississippi state regulators appear to be more interested in fast-tracking xAI’s personal power plant than conducting a thorough review of its impacts and having meaningful engagement with the families that will be forced to live with this dirty facility — and its pollution — in their communities,” SELC senior attorney Patrick Anderson said.
Air pollution spikes as Trump doubles down on coal power - - Air pollution from coal-fired power plants spiked in 2025, a striking reversal of long-term progress in air quality as the Trump administration boosted coal use. The emission increases were among the largest in at least a quarter-century, on a percentage basis, as the bulk of about 210 power plants registered increased sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions, EPA numbers show. Releases of sulfur dioxide, a lung-damaging compound key to acid rain formation, soared by more than 18 percent, from about 597,000 tons in 2024 to 705,000 tons in 2025, according to data compiled by POLITICO’s E&E News.During the same period, the coal-fired power sector’s emissions of smog-forming nitrogen oxides swelled by some 12 percent, from 464,000 to 521,000 tons.President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans have championed coal power, arguing that it’s needed to ensure the United States’ dominance in artificial intelligence. Trump made reviving the flagging coal industry a national priority, with his administration forcing plants to stay online past their scheduled retirement dates.Research shows that pollution from the coal-burning plants poses “a serious risk to human health,” said Dan Cohan, an environmental engineering professor at Rice University. While the industry’s total emissions were still well below the levels of even a decade ago, continued increases would threaten one of the Clean Air Act’s signature accomplishments.“The fact that much more emissions were coming out of them last year was a worrisome sign,” Cohan said.At EPA, where Administrator Lee Zeldin last year pledged to ensure clean air for all Americans, spokesperson Brigit Hirsch did not address written questions asking how more pollution meshes with that promise or what factors might be behind the increases.But Hirsch noted in an email steep drops in airborne concentrations of both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides since 1990.“Cherry-picking one year of data while ignoring the overall downward trend in emission levels is just misleading and meant to distract from the hundreds of environmental wins the Trump EPA has racked up over the past year-plus,” Hirsch said. But Cohan and other experts view burgeoning electricity demand as a driving force.Amid a boom in the construction of power-hungry computing centers, even coal-fired units “are starting to see more generation,” Coal is by far the highest-polluting fossil fuel, and coal-fired generation grew by 13 percent last year, according to recently released U.S. Energy Information Administration data.At PacifiCorp’s Hunter Power Plant in Utah, for example, NOx emissions skyrocketed 78 percent last year from about 4,500 tons in 2024 to more than 8,000 tons. In an email, PacifiCorp spokesperson David Eskelsen attributed the jump to an increase in “utilization” at the roughly 1,600-megawatt plant.
Action Needed: Recent Nominations put Piedmont Lake in danger. Save Ohio Parks - Two new fracking nominations – 26-DNR-0004 and 26-DNR-0005 – will open another 1,600 acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area to oil and gas extraction.These nominations aren’t just about gas. They’re about our water.Comments are due March 15. Fracking uses massive amounts of fresh water that is locally sourced. Very little of this water can ever return to the natural water cycle. Instead, nearly all of it must be injected underground for storage, never returning to streams, lakes, or our drinking water. Our research shows that at least 1.9 billion gallons of our fresh water will be used to frack the already approved nominations throughout the state. This water is taken directly out of our watersheds.Any new nomination, such as those in Egypt Valley, only adds to those gallons. Each well pad requires tens of millions of gallons of water. Further fracking will forever change the make-up and access to fresh water here in Ohio.Egypt Valley is still healing from decades of strip mining. Adding new extraction will only reverse the years of restoration that have gone into the wildlife area by putting Piedmont Lake in danger.Please tell the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission that Ohio public lands are meant to nourish – not frack.Go to the Nomination Comment Form and submit comments opposing EACH nomination 26-DNR-0004 and 26-DNR-0005. SUBMIT A COMMENT You are welcome to use our sample comment below, but please edit it to make it your own. Tell a story about your experience in Ohio parks or wildlife areas, and explain why protecting Ohio’s public lands is important to you.
Water districts in Ohio join call for injection well moratorium - The Allegheny Front -Five water districts and several municipalities in southeastern Ohio submitted a letter to Governor Mike DeWine and state legislators on Thursday calling for a 3-year pause on new waste injection wells in Washington County. The wells store wastewater, created by fracking for oil and gas, deep underground. It often contains radioactivity and other contaminants.“Our water districts acknowledge the importance of the oil and gas industry, but they believe these interests must be balanced so that regular Ohioans are protected from unnecessary risk,” the letter states.Washington County has 19 permitted injection wells, which is about as many as the entire state of Pennsylvania. According to the letter, four of those wells are permitted to inject a combined 20,000 barrels of wastewater a day. “The owner of those wells is seeking to operate an additional three injection wells – all existing and proposed wells would be within two miles of four aquifers serving 32,000 people in Ohio and West Virginia,” it states.Representatives from Washington County’s Warren, Putnam, Little Hocking, Highland Ridge, and Tri-County water authorities, joined Muskingum and Waterford Townships, the Village of Beverly, the City of Marietta, and the group Washington County for Safe Drinking Water signed the letter in support of a moratorium, which included over 300 signatures. In addition to the 3-year pause on injection wells in Washington County, the letter asks for state legislation to stop the import out-of-state waste for injection, stop all current injection of waste within six miles of the aquifers and require a full study of brine migration and risks to drinking water sources within Washington County over the next three years. “These are reasonable, temporary safeguards designed to protect essential drinking water infrastructure,” said Jay Huck, a trustee in Muskingum Township, at a community event Wednesday evening. He said the moratorium would give the state “time to gather the scientific data needed for responsible long-term policy.”Ohio regulators have suspended several injection wells in recent years after finding they leaked underground. Huck said it would be ‘devastating’ and ‘irreversible’ if the injection wells were to contaminate a drinking water aquifer. Steve Hutchinson, a member of the Warren Community Water and Sewer Association in Washington County, has been trying to get the governor and lawmakers to pay attention to this issue.“I think we’re on the right track here,” he said. “The pressure’s on. We can’t quit. We have to keep going because Columbus is listening to us. They certainly are.”
Marietta, OH Without Injection Wells = Economic Catastrophe- Marcellus Drilling News - Wastewater injection wells are an essential, safe, and highly regulated component of Southeast Ohio’s fracking industry. Banning these wells would trigger an economic catastrophe, leading to job losses and reduced public funding, without providing any actual environmental benefits. Yet that’s exactly what the political leaders of Marietta, OH, in collusion with virulent anti-fossil fuel groups, are attempting to do. Opposing injection wells while supporting fracking (as Marietta’s “leaders” are doing) is contradictory, as the two are inseparable for regional energy production and the area’s continued economic stability.
Insurance Co. Sues OH’s DeepRock $1.15M for Injection Well Cleanup -Marcellus Drilling News --Just coming to light for us is a lawsuit filed in June 2025 seeking to hold DeepRock Disposal Solutions responsible for the $1.28 million cleanup of a 2021 environmental incident in Noble County. The incident involved fracking brine migrating from a DeepRock injection well into the inactive Gant Well, triggering a massive eruption that contaminated local waterways and killed a couple of hundred fish and salamanders (see Ohio O&G Commission Blames Unplugged Well for Injection Well Leak). Although the Gant Well owner, Genesis, settled with the state for $1.15 million, the company’s insurer is now suing DeepRock to recoup those costs, alleging DeepRock’s negligence caused the leak.
Crude Oil Spill on the Ohio River Monitored by the TD-500 Oil in Water Meter - Turner Designs Hydrocarbon Instruments, Inc. is helping the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) in monitoring the 63,000 gallon crude oil spill on the Ohio river. This spill was a result of ruptured underground pipeline on the Kentucky river. ORSANCO is using the TD-500 handheld oil in water analyzer and the 10-AU field fluorometer for oil spill response. For more information on the oil spill, please see www.epa.gov/region4/midvallley_ky/index.htm. ORSANCO field personnel using the waterproof handheld TD-500, analyze water samples along the Ohio river to protect drinking water supplies from crude oil contamination with a simple solvent extraction method, analysis results are available in less than 4 minutes.
Ascent Resources plans expanded drilling in 2026 - An expanded drilling program is the goal of Oklahoma City-based Ascent Resources. The company released its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings report an indicated it will increase 2026 land spending by nearly 40% up to nearly $225 million. The company wants to beef up its long-term inventory and also take advantage of the growing development of data centers which use natural gas to generate needed power. “In addition to increasing production, Ascent is exploring supply deals with data centers to capitalize on growing power demand in the Appalachian region,” stated the company in its earnings report. Considered a major producer in Ohio, part of the Utica shale play, Ascent reported it plans to divide the 2026 drilling between gas and liquids with nearly $700 million in development. It also intends to hedge more than 80% of expected natural gas production. Ascent reported $454 million in generated cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and $1.7 billion for the year. Its adjusted EBITDAX was $462 million for the quarter and $1.7 billion for 2025. Adjusted free cash flow totaled $238 million in the quarter and $749 million for the year. Ascent had 972 gross operated producing wells in the Utica Shale in late 2025 and the company believes it has 18 to 21 years of future drilling inventory, an estimate based on current activity levels. ◦Net production averaged 2,308 mmcfe per day for the quarter and 2,149 mmcfe per day for the year; liquids production averaged 53,000 bbls per day in the fourth quarter and for the year. ◦Initial 2026 guidance of 2.1 to 2.2 bcfe per day of production on D&C spend of $650 to $700 million. The fourth quarter 2025 realized price, including the impact of settled commodity derivatives, was $3.89 per mcfe. Excluding the impact of settled commodity derivatives, the realized price was $3.58 per mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2025, a $0.03 per mcfe premium to NYMEX natural gas prices. Fourth quarter 2025 net production averaged 2,308 mmcfe per day, consisting of 1,992 mmcf per day of natural gas, 14,370 bbls per day of oil and 38,250 bbls per day of natural gas liquids (“NGLs”), putting liquids at 14% of the overall production mix for the quarter. Net production for the year ended December 31, 2025 averaged 2,149 mmcfe per day, consisting of 1,829 mmcf per day of natural gas, 14,345 bbls per day of oil and 39,022 bbls per day of NGLs, putting liquids at 15% of the overall production mix for 2025. The realized price, including the impact of settled commodity derivatives, was $3.92 per mcfe for the year ended December 31, 2025. Excluding the impact of settled commodity derivatives, price realizations were $3.56 per mcfe for the year, a $0.13 per mcfe premium to NYMEX natural gas prices. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company spud 11 operated wells, hydraulically fractured 10 wells, and turned-in-line 9 wells with an average lateral length of 13,845 feet. For the full-year, Ascent spud 56 wells, hydraulically fractured 61 wells, and turned-in-line 62 wells with an average lateral length of approximately 16,021 feet. As of December 31, 2025, Ascent had 995 gross operated productive Utica wells. As of December 31, 2025, Ascent had total debt of approximately $2.1 billion, with $185 million of borrowings and $62 million of letters of credit issued under the credit facility. Liquidity as of December 31, 2025 was approximately $1.76 billion, comprised of $1.75 billion of available borrowing capacity under the credit facility and $4 million of cash on hand.
Ascent Resources Eyes Data Center Growth with 2026 Expansion Plan -Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, formerly American Energy Partners, was founded by Aubrey McClendon, a gas industry legend, and is a privately held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 update last week. The company plans to expand its 2026 drilling program, increasing land spending by 40% to nearly $225 million. The company aims to strengthen its long-term inventory and supply natural gas to power-hungry Appalachian data centers.
OH Judge Denies Class Action Status in Antero Gas Royalty Lawsuit - Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a lawsuit that had (until now) escaped our radar screen. It’s a lawsuit dealing with the issue of post-production deductions. The case is Kirkbride v. Antero Resources Corp. and is being litigated in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio. On March 6, 2026, Magistrate Judge Elizabeth Preston Deavers denied a motion to certify the case as a class action. This is a significant development in the ongoing legal friction between Ohio landowners and energy companies over how royalties are calculated.
Infinity Natural Resources Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and Provides 2026 Outlook -Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial and operating results and provided a 2026 outlook.
- Completed transformational acquisition of upstream and midstream assets in Ohio from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream in February 2026 (the "Antero Acquisition")
- Completed $350 million strategic equity investment from Quantum Capital Group (“Quantum”) and Carnelian Energy Capital (“Carnelian”)
- Delivered 93% growth in total net daily production to 271.6 MMcfe/d, or 45.3 MBoe/d, in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the fourth quarter 2024
- Increased natural gas net production 129% compared to fourth quarter 2024
- Reported net income of $80.4 million
- Delivered 104% growth in Adjusted EBITDAX(1) to $94.0 million in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the fourth quarter 2024, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin(1) of $3.76 / Mcf, or $22.58 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
- Placed 6 wells into sales in the fourth quarter totaling approximately 103,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) 3 oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) 3 natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
- Acquired working interests in our South Bend Field in Pennsylvania (the "South Bend Acquisition") for consideration of approximately 2.5 million shares of our Class A common stock, with approximately 1,600 net Marcellus acres and 1,600 net Utica acres and Adjusted operating income(1) of $2.8 million for the fourth quarter 2025
- Acquired approximately 2,500 net acres during the quarter, increasing working interest in our active development projects and enhancing future projects
- Generated $75.1 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter
- Development capital expenditures incurred of $52.9 million, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
- Increased the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility from $375 million to $875 million on February 23, 2026 in connection with the closing of the Antero Acquisition
- Total net debt(1) was approximately $148.0 million as of December 31, 2025 (including borrowings to fund a $61.2 million deposit for the Antero Acquisition), and approximately $442.7 million as of February 28, 2026
- Total liquidity was $226.9 million as of December 31, 2025 and $413.1 million as of February 28, 2026
- Delivered 46% growth in total net daily production to 211.8 MMcfe/d, or 35.3 MBoe/d, in 2025 compared to 2024
- Reported net income of $64.0 million
- Delivered Adjusted EBITDAX(1) of $261.0 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin(1) of $3.38 / Mcf, or $20.26 / Boe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
- Placed 23 wells into sales in 2025 totaling approximately 363,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) 11 oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) 12 natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
- Acquired approximately 6,700 net acres during the year
- Generated $261.8 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2025
- Development capital expenditures incurred of $290.8 million, including D&C and midstream
- Reported total proved reserves of 1.3 Tcfe, or 225.0 MMBoe, with 45% proved developed and 16% oil, 68% natural gas and 16% natural gas liquids (“NGLs”)
- Development capital budget of $450 million to $500 million, including D&C and midstream
- Total net daily production expected to be between 345 and 375 MMcfe/d, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 70% at the midpoint of the range
- Total natural gas net production expected to be between 235 and 255 MMcfe/d
- Total oil and liquids net production expected to be between 18 and 20 Mbbls/d
- Anticipate running 2 rigs throughout the year with 1 rig dedicated to the assets acquired in the Antero Acquisition beginning early in the second quarter
- Expect to turn into sales 31 gross wells, with 8 wells in the dry gas Pennsylvania Marcellus, 10 wells in the rich gas area of the Ohio Utica (on the assets acquired in the Antero Acquisition) and 13 wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica
Gulfport Energy CEO John Reinhart Suddenly Resigns and Exits Co. - Marcellus Drilling News - Some earthshattering news to share: Gulfport Energy CEO John Reinhart just up and quit last Friday. He resigned his post as President and CEO of the company and his membership on the board of directors. Gone. Just like that. Gulfport issued a press release yesterday to say it’s no big deal, that Timothy J. Cutt, who is Chairman of the board and the former CEO before Reinhart, will fill in while a search is conducted. But, it is a big deal. The question is, why did Reinhart abruptly quit?
Is Gulfport Energy an M&A Target in Appalachia After CEO Exit? -- The abrupt departure of Gulfport Energy’s CEO raises questions about whether the company still intends to grow in Appalachia through acquisitions or become a takeover target itself as high-quality drilling inventory grows scarce.
Key Issue for Shell PA Cracker: What Constitutes Emissions Data? - Marcellus Drilling News - Shell’s $15 billion petrochemical complex in Beaver County faces intense scrutiny following new emissions data highlighting persistent operational problems. Since opening, the facility has received 80 malfunction reports and 43 state violation notices. From 2020 to 2024, the plant emitted 17.9 billion pounds of “pollutants,” including nearly 400 million pounds of unexpected emissions during malfunctions involving hazardous chemicals like benzene and naphthalene. Despite Shell’s efforts, ongoing issues such as flaring, equipment breakdowns, and a 2025 fire continue to concern regulators and residents, while the local economy has unexpectedly shrunk since the plant’s inception.
28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 2 – 8 - Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received a combined 21 new drilling permits last week, Mar. 2 – 8, up 10 from the 11 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 21 of the permits. Ohio issued 7. And, West Virginia issued no new permits last week. The drillers receiving new permits last week included: Ascent Resources, CNX Resources, EOG Resources, EQT, Expand Energy, Range Resources, and Repsol. Ascent Resources | Bradford County | Carroll County | CNX Resources | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Jefferson County (OH) | Range Resources Corp | Repsol | Washington County
M-U Rigs Realign: PA Stays @ 20, OH Drops 2 @ 11, WV Adds 1 @ 8 - Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, the Marcellus/Utica saw a realignment in rig counts, at least in Ohio and West Virginia. Pennsylvania kept the 20 rigs it has had since early February. Ohio lost two rigs, from 13 to 11, the fewest active rigs in the Buckeye State since last September. And perhaps the biggest news was that West Virginia picked up one rig, from 7 to 8 rigs, for the first time since last May! Overall, the M-U region had a net loss of one rig last week, going from 40 to 39 active rigs. The M-U’s biggest competitor, the Haynesville, gained one rig, from 52 to 53 rigs, some 14 rigs more than the M-U. It wasn’t all that long ago that the M-U ran more rigs than the Haynesville.
Patterson-UTI CEO Predicts Coming Shortage of Fracking Equipment -Marcellus Drilling News -Patterson-UTI is a leading North American oilfield services company (OFS company) based in Houston, specializing in high-spec land drilling, pressure pumping, and directional drilling. Patterson operates one of the largest fleets of APEX® rigs, focusing on advanced, technology-driven solutions for oil and natural gas exploration. Patterson operates roughly half of the active rigs in the Marcellus/Utica. Patterson CEO Andy Hendricks made a prediction in a recent interview: Rising US natural gas exports and domestic demand from AI data centers will lead to a shortage of fracking equipment later this decade.
ProFrac and Seismos Bring "Closed-Loop Fracking" to U.S. Shale - Marcellus Drilling News - click for larger version - ProFrac Holding Corp. and Seismos, Inc. announced the successful deployment of a commercial-scale closed-loop fracturing program in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk basins (in Texas). Completing 183 stages in early 2026, the partnership utilized real-time, intra-stage optimization driven by direct in-well subsurface measurements. By integrating Seismos's SAFA™ system with ProFrac's ProPilot® surface automation, the technology executes corrective adjustments within minutes. This data-driven approach improved fracking efficiency by up to 7.5%, with the potential to boost overall productivity by 20%. This innovation shifts industry practice from passive monitoring to active control of fracturing outcomes, maximizing the productive potential of every stage through precise, automated execution. The question is, is this technology coming to the Marcellus/Utica?
Up to 8% of M-U Molecules Currently Restricted Due to Pipe Issues -Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve recently begun to highlight flow restrictions along pipelines that carry Marcellus/Utica molecules. When flows slow or stop (because they can’t reach other markets), the price typically falls because local supply exceeds local demand. In the middle of Winter Storm Fern in January, outages and freeze-offs led to significant stress with production dropping 10-12% due to pipeline and well issues (see Flow Restrictions, Freeze-Offs Lead to 10-12% Drop in M-U). We checked this morning and, as is typical, there are some restrictions that suppress outbound flows by 5-8%. We have the list of which pipelines are currently affected.
Company spills over 1M gallons of drilling fluid into mine during pipeline construction - The Allegheny Front - An oil and gas company lost over a million gallons of drilling fluid into an abandoned coal mine in Washington County over a period of months, state records show.Contractors for the pipeline company MarkWest Liberty Midstream & Resources LLC lost control of drilling fluid on at least 19 occasions over the fall and winter, according to Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection records. The records show that the company had similar experiences on two other pipelines it built in the area. The fluid went into “a mine void” at the site of the abandoned Primrose Mine in Mount Pleasant Township during drilling for a new pipeline, the Chiarelli to Imperial Pipeline Project, between October and January. The mine was active in the early 1900s, according to state records. The fluid is used to make drilling easier during horizontal directional drilling, a common technique used to bore holes underground for pipelines. The fluid, classified as industrial waste under state law, contained a mix of water, soda ash and bentonite clay, along with a product called Max Gel, according to DEP records. Max Gel is a silicone-based product used in drilling fluid. The company said in an email that the mixture is nontoxic and approved by the DEP, and that it’s monitoring for surface water contamination, but hasn’t found any. The losses of fluid were first reported by PA Environment Digest, a website run by former DEP secretary David Hess. Cat Lodge, who lives in nearby Robinson Township, doesn’t think the DEP should have allowed the company to keep drilling through the area of the abandoned mine. She’s worried about where the fluid ended up.“Where did it go? And what do you do now if it winds up in somebody’s well water?” Lodge said. “I wouldn’t want this in my drinking water. I wouldn’t it in my animals’ drinking water. If it hits the waters of the Commonwealth, this could be hazardous to fish.” The company told the DEP it did not contact local residents or test nearby groundwater.Lodge thinks residents should know more about incidents like these. “We need to know if something is in our water; if we’re exposed to something, we should know to protect ourselves,” Lodge said. DEP spokeswoman Laina Aquiline said in an emailed statement that the agency “is continuing to investigate the reported loss of drilling fluids that occurred during horizontal directional drilling (HDD) activities associated with a MarkWest project. Because the investigation is ongoing, DEP cannot comment on potential future enforcement actions.”
Where wells run deep, biodiversity runs thin -As the United States continues to lead global oil and gas production—accounting for roughly 20% of worldwide output in 2024—understanding how different extraction methods affect ecosystems has never been more urgent. A new study in ACS ES&T Water offers new clarity: conventional, often decades-old oil-and-gas infrastructure leaves a deeper, more persistent mark on freshwater biodiversity than unconventional shale (fracking) development. The research was conducted by a multi-institutional team led by Ryan Olivier-Meehan, a former undergraduate and now a graduate student in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (EES) in the College of Arts and Sciences at Syracuse University, in collaboration with EES Assistant Professor Tao Wen and partners at UCLA, Carnegie Institution for Science and the University of Colorado Boulder. Their analysis integrates ecology, geology, and data science to move the conversation beyond assumptions and toward evidence-based environmental stewardship.The study focused on streams in Pennsylvania, which Wen describes as the perfect natural laboratory. "Pennsylvania has a very long history of conventional oil and gas drilling with some wells dating back more than 100 years," notes Wen. "At the same time, it has been at the center of modern shale gas development. On top of that, the state has a very strong stream monitoring program." This overlap of legacy infrastructure, newer technology, and consistent biological data created a unique chance to compare ecological impacts at scale. "What makes this moment special is that we now have decades of high-quality biological monitoring data available," Wen says. "That gave us a rare opportunity to step back and ask, what has all of this development meant for stream life at a statewide scale?" To quantify ecological change, the team analyzed more than 6,800 benthic macroinvertebrate samples, which include bottom-dwelling insect larvae, small crustaceans, and worms. They compared them across watershed characteristics and detailed oil-and-gas records. The team then applied modeling and network analysis to tease apart the relative influences of shale versus conventional development on community composition and biological integrity."Benthic macroinvertebrates are excellent indicators of stream health because they live in the water year-round, constantly exposed to local conditions," says Olivier-Meehan. "If conditions deteriorate, sensitive species disappear and are replaced by more tolerant ones. By looking at the community as a whole, we get a long-term picture of stream condition—not just a snapshot of water chemistry on a single day."These organisms also form the base of the food web. They recycle nutrients, break down organic matter, and support fish and bird populations. Therefore, understanding how drilling affects their biodiversity is essential, because any disruption to these foundational species can ripple upward through the entire ecosystem and signal broader declines in watershed health.The statewide patterns were clear. Conventional development was linked with fewer species, less variety among them, and an overall decline in the ecosystem's health. It also caused the community of aquatic organisms to shift toward hardy, pollution-tolerant species—signs that the ecosystem is becoming less resilient. The effects from shale development showed limited but detectable effects."Public debate often centers on shale gas because it's newer and more visible. Our results show the story is more nuanced," says Olivier-Meehan. "In Pennsylvania, conventional drilling—much more widespread and often decades old—was more strongly associated with declines in stream biodiversity."The researchers stress that this does not imply shale development is impact-free. Rather, environmental risk reflects the age and density (number of wells within a specific region) along with infrastructure, regulatory oversight, and landscape factors that influence ecological impacts.
PA DEP Signals Recommendation on Shale Drilling Setbacks by Year End - Marcellus Drilling News - It's time to make a LOT of noise with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) if you care about Marcellus drilling continuing in the Keystone State. In December, the Pennsylvania Environmental Quality Board (EQB) accepted a petition by radical green groups, including the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project, to “study” the issue of increasing setbacks for shale drilling so far that it would ban ALL new Marcellus/Utica drilling in the Keystone State, which is no exaggeration (see EQB Votes to Consider Ban on Marcellus Drilling Via Crazy Setbacks). Yesterday, the Shapiro DEP told the EQB it is actively reviewing the rulemaking petition and will have a recommendation on setbacks for the board by the end of this year.
Frac Spreads Strengthen in March -- Frac spreads strengthened in March 2026, averaging $4.09/MMBtu so far—up 37% from February and 10% above the $3.70/MMBtu recorded in March 2025. Propane remains the largest contributor at $1.46/MMBtu, with natural gasoline next at $1.29/MMBtu. Propane is below year-ago levels, while natural gasoline is higher, and both remain the primary drivers of the overall spread. Normal butane and isobutane provide additional support at $0.72/MMBtu and $0.42/MMBtu, respectively. The frac spread for ethane, which was slightly negative in January, has climbed steadily and now stands at $0.21/MMBtu.
EIA Lowers Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast Despite Iran War Fallout -- Lower 48 benchmark natural gas price expectations were revised downward despite recent spikes amid the fog of war in Iran, a new U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast released Tuesday showed. Chart titled “NGI’s Henry Hub Forward Fixed Price Curve” showing U.S. natural gas forward prices from May 2026 through early 2028. Prices rise from just above $3.10/MMBtu in mid-2026 to a peak above $5.00/MMBtu around January 2027, fall sharply to near $3.20/MMBtu by mid-2027, then climb again toward about $4.90/MMBtu entering early 2028 before dropping back near $3.45/MMBtu. At A Glance:
EIA sees Henry Hub around $3.80
Forecast 13% less than last month
Agency sees 2027 price near $3.90
Falling Natural Gas Prices Drive Coal-to-Gas Switching Surge -Natural gas has grabbed back share of the U.S. thermal generation stack over the past month as plunging spot prices triggered a wave of coal-to-gas switching. Chart comparing NGI’s National Average Daily Natural Gas Price with natural gas’ share of the U.S. thermal power generation stack from March 2025 to March 2026, showing gas supply frequently providing about 60–75% of generation and a price spike near $50/MMBtu in early February 2026. At A Glance:
Coal-to-gas switching lifts gas share
Gas tops 72% of thermal stack
Solar growth caps longer-term gains
PADD 1 Propane Supply Remains Tight as U.S. Inventories Draw and Exports Rise | RBN Energy - The EIA reported a 1.7 MMbbl draw in U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended March 6, exceeding industry expectations for a 1.3 MMbbl decline. Total stocks now stand at 71.7 MMbbl, which is 26.4 MMbbl (58%) higher than the same week in 2025 and 10.7 MMbbl (18%) above the five-year maximum. Inventories are also 25.2 MMbbl (54%) above the five-year average. PADD 1 (East Coast) propane inventories fell by 848 Mbbl to 2.7 MMbbl, leaving stocks 401 Mbbl, or 13%, below year-ago levels and 1.4 MMbbl, or 34%, below the five-year average. Stocks are also 268 Mbbl, or 9%, below the five-year minimum, underscoring tight regional supply. Weekly propane exports reported by the EIA rose by 426 Mb/d to 2 MMb/d, exceeding the year-to-date average of 1.93 MMb/d. Exports also surpassed the four-week average of 1.91 MMb/d and were well above the 1.72 MMb/d reported during the same week last year.
U.S. LPG Terminaling Rates Soar - Gulf Coast LPG terminaling fees have spiked to 30 c/gal, a level not seen since late 2024, and a direct consequence of the Iran war. For most of the past five years, Gulf Coast spot LPG terminaling fees meandered well below their long-run average of roughly 8 c/gallon (left graph, red dashed line), with only occasional spikes — most notably a brief surge toward 30 c/gallon in late 2024, before collapsing back to the 4–5 c/gallon range through most of 2025. Now fees have rocketed back to 30 c/gallon almost overnight according to OPIS. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February triggered an effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 40% of global LPG supply flows. With Middle East cargoes stranded, several VLGCs (Very Large Gas Carriers, the industry’s LPG workhorse vessel) loaded from the Persian Gulf and are drifting at sea, unable to transit the strait. Consequently, Asian buyers are desperately competing for U.S. Gulf Coast supplies. That sudden stampede to U.S. export terminals is exactly what the spiking daily fee line and the highlighted data point in the right-hand graph are showing: The global market is repricing American LPG in real time as the world scrambles for supply alternatives.
Trump Considers Jones Act Waiver After War in Iran Sends Oil, Natural Gas Prices Surging -The White House is weighing a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act that would allow foreign tankers to move fuel between U.S. ports, part of a broader effort to blunt rising energy costs after Iran choked off a critical artery of global trade in response to U.S.-Israeli military strikes over the past two weeks.Map of Arabian Peninsula Maritime Chokepoints highlighting key global energy transit routes including the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and Djibouti, the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline in Egypt, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline, major pathways for Middle East oil and LNG shipments to Europe and global markets.At A Glance:
30-day Jones Act waiver considered
Would follow other emergency actions
Natural gas and oil prices jump amid war
White House Announces It May Grant 30-Day Jones Act Waivers for O&G -Marcellus Drilling News- Finally! The White House is seriously considering (and will likely sign) a temporary waiver suspending the Jones Act for 30 days. The Trump administration is considering a temporary suspension of the Jones Act to help lower gasoline prices, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirming a formal review of the policy. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, the plan involves issuing 30-day waivers that would allow foreign-flagged tankers to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast and other U.S. hubs to East Coast refiners, a move that shipping and oil companies have already been advised to prepare for.
Golden Pass Nears First LNG Cargo - Golden Pass LNG is nearing startup, with Train 1 expected to produce its first LNG cargo by late March, adding new capacity to the U.S. LNG system.Golden Pass has taken significant feedgas volumes since Feb. 17, when intake jumped from around 30 MMcf/d to 171 MMcf/d. Last week, intake was reduced, and the terminal did not take any feedgas for a few days. This is a normal part of commissioning and does not necessarily indicate issues at the terminal. We expect fluctuations during the commissioning process. Train 1, now ramping up, will require about 850 MMcf/d of feedgas at full utilization. Golden Pass will push U.S. feedgas demand higher over the coming months. Our LNG Voyager Weekly Report added new data on March 10 on Golden Pass. Gulf Run (blue shaded area in the chart below) and Midcoast Pipeline (red shaded area) are delivering gas onto the header pipeline, with some volumes used as feedgas and some delivered to other pipelines in the area. Golden Pass is an anchor shipper on Gulf Run, holding 1.1 Bcf/d of capacity on the line from the Haynesville area to the Sabine River area, and a significant share of its feedgas is expected from Gulf Run.
Gulf Coast Facing ‘Gas Storage Problem’ as LNG Exports Grow U.S. natural gas storage capacity is failing to keep pace with market growth overall, which can cause headaches during periods of sharp demand spikes and declines alike – particularly for Gulf Coast LNG exporters.Chart showing U.S. natural gas demand growth versus storage capacity from 2012–2025, with domestic consumption plus LNG exports rising sharply and displaying strong seasonal peaks while working gas storage capacity remains nearly flat, highlighting how U.S. natural gas demand growth has outpaced storage expansion, according to EIA and API data.At A Glance:
Natural gas market growth outpacing storage
Gulf region vulnerable to demand, supply shocks
Storage buffer seen shrinking as exports grow
Venture Global Poised to Take U.S. LNG Export Crown After Reaching FID on Second Phase of CP2 -Venture Global Inc. said Friday it has reached a positive final investment decision (FID) on the second phase of its CP2 LNG project under construction in Cameron Parish, LA, marking the first U.S. export plant to be sanctioned in 2026. At A Glance:
Project would push output above 60 Mt/y
CP2 is largest financing to date at $53B
Third phase advancing at Plaquemines LNG
Texas LNG Steps Closer to FID After Tapping Kiewit to Lead Construction -An affiliate of Glenfarne Group LLC has signed a fixed-price contract with Kiewit Energy Group Inc. to build the Texas LNG facility.Under the agreement, Kiewit would be responsible for engineering, procurement of equipment, module fabrication, construction and commissioning of the 4 million tons/year (Mt/y) facility proposed for the Port of Brownsville in South Texas.
US natgas prices at Waha Hub in Texas remain negative for record 25th day - U.S. spot natural gas prices for Thursday at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. Longer-term, energy firms will likely boost Permian output when more gas pipes enter service as soaring oil prices from the Iran war encourage oil and associated gas production, and as gas demand rises to feed fast-growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and to produce electricity for power-hungry data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Analysts have long said negative prices, which force some energy firms to pay others to take gas associated with their oil production, were a sure sign that the Permian region, which spans West Texas and eastern New Mexico, needs more gas pipes. More pipes are on the way this year, but not soon enough to handle all the gas currently coming out of the ground. “Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks,” analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Permian gas output has hit record highs every year since around 2013, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 2009, reaching 27.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 – enough to supply over a quarter of U.S. demand. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025), making the Permian the fastest-growing and second-biggest gas-producing shale basin in the country behind the Marcellus/Utica Shale in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA’s latest estimates. “Longer term… higher oil prices encouraging more oil production and future associated gas suggests a huge supply tailwind as new Permian pipelines come online in the back half of 2026,” EBW said. Energy firms in the Permian have been willing to take some losses on gas because they can make up for those with profits from selling oil. Negative gas prices were not very common a decade ago when environmental rules were less strict and many drillers could flare or burn off some of their unwanted gas. But in recent years, that gas has become increasingly valuable as a fuel to generate electricity used by power-hungry U.S. data centers and for export via pipeline to Mexico and as LNG to markets around the world. In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for Thursday, down from minus $5.40 for Wednesday and a record minus $7.15 for Tuesday. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 34 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative 37 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).29dk2902l
Permian Pipeline Constraints Push Waha Gas Prices Negative for 25th Straight Day Pipeline constraints in the Permian Basin are keeping natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in negative territory for a record 25 straight days, underscoring the urgent need for new takeaway capacity from the nation’s largest oil-producing region. (Reuters) — U.S. spot natural gas prices for March 12 at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas closed in negative territory for a record 25th straight day as pipeline constraints trap gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin, prompting some analysts to project that gas production could be reduced in the short term. Longer-term, energy firms will likely boost Permian output when more gas pipes enter service as soaring oil prices from the Iran war encourage oil and associated gas production, and as gas demand rises to feed fast-growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and to produce electricity for power-hungry data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Analysts have long said negative prices, which force some energy firms to pay others to take gas associated with their oil production, were a sure sign that the Permian region, which spans West Texas and eastern New Mexico, needs more gas pipes. More pipes are on the way this year, but not soon enough to handle all the gas currently coming out of the ground. "Continued negative pricing in the Permian is expected for much of the spring. As regional production likely ebbs lower, it may dent national-level headline output in tandem in coming weeks," analysts at consultancy EBW Analytics Group said in a note. Permian gas output has hit record highs every year since around 2013, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 2009, reaching 27.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 - enough to supply over a quarter of U.S. demand. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. Gas production in the basin has climbed by around 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025), making the Permian the fastest-growing and second-biggest gas-producing shale basin in the country behind the Marcellus/Utica Shale in Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. But gas output growth in the Permian is expected to slow to around 4% a year on average in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA's latest estimates. "Longer term ... higher oil prices encouraging more oil production and future associated gas suggests a huge supply tailwind as new Permian pipelines come online in the back half of 2026," EBW said. Energy firms in the Permian have been willing to take some losses on gas because they can make up for those with profits from selling oil. Negative gas prices were not very common a decade ago when environmental rules were less strict and many drillers could flare or burn off some of their unwanted gas. But in recent years, that gas has become increasingly valuable as a fuel to generate electricity used by power-hungry U.S. data centers and for export via pipeline to Mexico and as LNG to markets around the world. In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub fell to minus $6.34 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for March 12, down from minus $5.40 for March 11 and a record minus $7.15 for March 10. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 34 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative 37 cents per MMBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
‘Drill Baby, Drill’ Ain’t Going To Save the GOP From a War-Driven Affordability Pounding --by David Stockman --There is more history percolating up in the current Iranian madness than just another failed Forever War. It’s going to be the end of the Trumpified GOP too, and that means that a motley menagerie of Dem statists, spenders, regulators, lifers, wokests and outright freaks are likely to be swept back into power in the elections just ahead. Sadly, that will likely mark the end of capitalist prosperity and constitutional liberty in America as we have known it, too. The truth is, only the old time GOP committed to free markets, fiscal rectitude, sound money, small, decentralized government and non-intervention abroad had any chance at all of reversing the 20th century tide of insolvent, inflationary, debt-encumbered Big Government. But that GOP of yesteryear was already deader than a doornail after three terms of the Bush’s spending, bailouts and money-printing – even before the Trumpified GOP delivered the coup de grace. That is, by going full retard on spending, borrowing, money-printing, protectionism, nativism and random government regulation and subsidization on the specious grounds of “national security”. On another occasion we will get into a fuller amplification of all the manifold statist sins of the now thoroughly Trumpified GOP. But in the meanwhile, it might be well to recognize that Donald Trump unaccountably rode into office a second time against all reason because, and only because, AFFORDABILITY!Since services inflation peaked in Q1 2023, the decline in headline CPI has been driven overwhelmingly by the collapse of global oil prices and gas pump prices especially. To wit, the headline CPI figure is still up at a +2.84% per annum rate, but even that is due to a negative -3.18% inflation rate for gasoline and +1.83% rate for groceries. By contrast, the part of the CPI that the Fed can impact most directly in the short-run is the above displayed CPI for services (shelter, medical care, education, household and business services etc.). Yet despite its cooling from the peak rate of 7.1% in Q1 2023, the annualized increase since then has still posted at +4.07% per annum and is now heading higher as the Fed’s printing press begins to again spill excess fiat credit into the financial system. In this context, it appears that the Donald and his MAGA men believe that their “drill baby, drill” mantra will shield the GOP from a rising headline inflation rate and “affordability” backlash at the polls next November. Yet they could not be more completely and fatally wrong. That’s because the price at the pump in Podunk Iowa is set by the supply and demand balance in the global crude oil and product markets, not by domestic production levels. But as we will amplify in detail in Part 2, any further modest gains in domestic production would not even begin to off-set the large shortfalls that are virtually certain to materialize in the 103 million barrel per day global petroleum market, as the Persian Gulf goes up in flames under the bombs and missiles that will be flying from both sides for weeks and weeks yet to come. In any event, drill, baby drill has caused domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas to soar since the production bottom was reached in 2007-2009 period. But as we will show in Part 2, global and domestic petroleum prices have not remotely tracked the production paths shown below. Any further crude oil production increases from the current 13.5 million barrels per day might amount to a few hundred thousand b/d at best. And that would be a drop in the bucket of the global 103 million barrels per day market, which stands to loose a substantial fraction of the 20 mb/d that transits thru the Strait of Hormuz and especially out of the Iranian energy fields.
Trump taps oil reserves as Iran conflict spikes prices - President Trump plans to tap into the U.S.’s oil stockpile, releasing 172 million barrels of oil. Asked about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during a visit to Ohio, Trump told TV station Local 12, “I filled it up once, and I’ll fill it up again, but right now, we’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down.” Shortly thereafter, the Energy Department issued a press release saying the administration would release 172 million barrels starting next week. In a statement, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the release could take approximately 120 days. The announcement comes hours after the International Energy Agency (IEA), of which the U.S. is a member, said that collectively, its members would release 400 million barrels of oil as part of an effort to bring down prices, the largest such release ever. Wright said in his statement that the release would be part of the larger IEA effort. “I’m pleased to report that earlier today, the International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from various national petroleum reserves around the world,” Trump said at a rally in Kentucky. Oil prices have risen as Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil choke point. As of last week, the U.S. oil stockpile had more than 415 million barrels of oil. Former President Biden announced a drawdown of 180 million barrels from the reserve in 2022 to combat rising energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Republicans including Trump have criticized Biden for his move to take oil from the reserve, saying it should be used for military reasons rather than to lower prices.
Louisiana nears deal with ConocoPhillips over coastal erosion - Louisiana has reached a tentative agreement with ConocoPhillips to settle years of litigation over the oil major’s contribution to the state’s shrinking coastline.Gov. Jeff Landry announced at a coastal advisory commission meeting last week that the state and the energy company are “words away from resolving the longstanding coastal litigation claims.”“I have done my part and brought the parties together,” said Landry, a Republican. “I have negotiated this deal with the help of others, and I have put my signature on it. We now need the leadership of our coastal parishes to finish the job.” The pending agreement follows dozens of lawsuits launched by Plaquemines, Cameron and other Louisiana parishes against oil majors beginning in 2013. The lawsuits seek millions of dollars in damages and allege the companies failed to obtain proper permits for drilling activity along the coastline, following the enactment of Louisiana’s Coastal Resources Management Act in 1980.
First New U.S. Oil Refinery in 50 Years Coming to Texas - For decades, America has experienced refinery closures while Washington politicians implemented policies that hurt our energy sector. But President Trump and his administration are working to bring back American Energy Dominance. President Trump announced this week that the first new oil refinery built in the United States in fifty years will be constructed in Brownsville, Texas. The project, led by America First Refining, marks a historic investment in America’s energy future and a significant step toward restoring our energy sector. President Trump posted to Truth Social, “America is returning to REAL ENERGY DOMINANCE! Today I am proud to announce that America First Refining is opening the FIRST new U.S. Oil Refinery in 50 YEARS in Brownsville, Texas. “THIS IS A HISTORIC $300 BILLION DOLLAR DEAL — THE BIGGEST IN U.S. HISTORY, A MASSIVE WIN for American Workers, Energy, and the GREAT People of South Texas!” The announcement is also a significant win for American workers. A new refinery will create jobs in the region and support President Trump’s energy dominance agenda. Energy dominance isn’t just about producing more oil and natural gas. It’s about ensuring the United States has the infrastructure to process, refine, and deliver that energy efficiently.
For the U.S. Refining Sector, ‘Energy Dominance’ Doesn’t Mean Going it Alone | RBN Energy -The U.S. boasts the world’s second-largest refining complex (after China) but has the most complex/dynamic facilities and significant edges over other developed economies in access to crude oil and natural gas. And while domestic demand may be stagnating, the U.S. remains a global leader in refined product exports, in large part due to the structural advantages noted above, but also, and probably even more importantly, due to the free-market environment in which the industry is allowed to operate. The other major refining markets face their own set of headwinds. While China surpassed the U.S. to become the largest global refiner by capacity in 2023, it remains focused on meeting domestic, not export demand. Refined product demand growth there is slowing, due in large part to the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a greater focus on petrochemical production, along with a deteriorating demographic environment. Refinery capacity additions are also slowing in the Middle East, where despite their advantaged crude supply refiners face high capital costs and significant geopolitical risks — highlighted by the ongoing military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Iran against some of its neighbors. India’s refining sector has seen the fastest growth in recent years, and its private refiners are large, complex and efficient. It has benefited from access to sanctioned Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine, and additional growth in Venezuelan crude production could bring future benefits (more on Venezuela below), but India will remain dependent on imported crude and natural gas, with the potential for additional regulatory issues and higher costs.The U.S. refining sector has a number of inherent advantages, but a significant part of its success is that it doesn’t operate as an island unto itself. For starters, U.S. refiners import significant volumes of crude and feedstocks — primarily heavy crude/resid and low-cost intermediates, which complex refineries can upgrade very cost effectively. As shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S. has continued to import significant quantities of crude oil (blue line) even as domestic production (green line) has more than doubled over the past 15 years and crude exports (orange line) have steadily moved higher, now averaging about 4 MMb/d. (That level of connectedness also means the U.S. isn't insulated from market-shifting global events, such as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed the price of crude oil sharply higher.)Heavy crudes are an important source of profitability for complex U.S. refiners, but the U.S. doesn’t produce a lot of them, which makes heavy crude from nearby Canada and Latin America essential (another advantage for U.S. refiners, as most heavy crude production comes from within the Western Hemisphere). Total Western Hemisphere production of heavy crude (<25 API) declined from about 7.2 MMb/d in 2016 to a low of 5.8 MMb/d in 2020, then recovered to around 6.3 MMb/d in 2025 due to continued Canadian production growth and some recovery in Venezuelan heavy crude supply, a figure that looks likely to increase in the coming years if the situation in Venezuela improves (see Take Me Money and Run Venezuela and Round and Round). By comparison, total U.S. production of heavy crude has continued to decline, falling from about 600 Mb/d in 2016 to just over 300 Mb/d in 2025.As domestic demand for refined fuels declines over time, the U.S. refining industry will have to find new homes for its production, another reason connections to the global market are more important than ever. According to the latest Future of Fuels report from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) refiners are expected to add 400 Mb/d of net capacity from 2025 to 2045 via “capacity creep,” but for that to happen exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel will have to grow by about 1.1 MMb/d (43% gasoline) during that period. As we wrote in Mixed Signals, PADD 3 refiners (see Figure 2 below) are particularly advantaged in several ways:
- The supply, demand and operational/cost advantages enjoyed by Gulf Coast refiners, particularly compared to refiners in other developed countries and in key export markets such as Latin America, are structural in most cases.
- High natural gas costs and elevated freight prices have added to PADD 3’s advantages against LNG- and long-haul, marine-dependent refiners in Europe and Asia. While the natural gas and freight cost advantages have declined since peaking in 2022, they remain higher than pre-COVID levels.
- Loss of access to Russian energy (crude and natural gas) adds to the competitive disadvantages of European refiners and will lead to continued capacity declines in Western Europe and Russia, another plus for PADD 3 refiners, and provides an opening for more exports to West Africa (which has been supplied by European refineries).
Legal fights continue as reroute of Line 5 pipeline begins - Great Lakes Now - A network of state and regional regulators keeps Indiana's electric grid — a complex ecosystem of power plants, substations and transmission lines — operating smoothly. But recently, the federal government started meddling. In December, the Department of Energy bypassed state and regional regulators with a contentious legal maneuver to extend the lives of two aging Indiana coal plants. The Northern Indiana Public Service Company's (NIPSCO) R.M. Schahfer Generating Station in Jasper County and CenterPoint Energy's F.B. Culley Generating Station in Warrick County were both scheduled to retire by the end of 2025, but the DOE ordered them to stay online until at least March 23, 2026.Now, a contentious legal battle is materializing in response.National and local environmental and consumer advocacy groups initially filed a legal challenge against the DOE, arguing the department lacked sufficient evidence or authority to issue such orders. Additional groups, including citizens utility boards from across the Midwest, are digging their heels in as the utilities keep the plants online in accordance with DOE orders. Plant operation costs are racking up, and now, both utilities want ratepayers from across the midcontinental energy grid to foot these bills. Coal has a complicated reputation. Many view it as the backbone of American's dominance in the energy industry, but research over the past several decades has linked coal to human fatalities and ecological crises.Coal units emit deadly, toxic particulate matter, awash with contaminates like heavy metals, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. In the mid-2010s, researchers attributed a significant drop in the percentage of deaths associated with coal particulate matter to coal plant retirements and pollution regulations enacted during the Obama administration. Coal burning power plants are also significant producers of carbon dioxide, a planet-warming gas, and once burned, the fuel leaves a dangerous ashy residue that readily contaminates groundwater and is difficult to remediate. Still, some view strict coal regulation as a hindrance to economic prosperity. The Trump administration has been on a mission to "end the war on beautiful, clean coal" since taking office. Over the last year, the Environmental Protection Agency has rolled back several environmental regulations that wrangled coal pollution in Indiana, and just last week, the agency repealed the scientific basis for the government's ability to regulate greenhouse gases. Now, the DOE has created an unprecedented modus operandi to keep coal energy afloat. By flexing legal authority through Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, which grants the DOE authority to intervene in local energy grids during emergencies, the department recently halted the retirement of several coal plants across the country.Environmental advocates say the decision to do so was out of line."Historically, these 202(c) orders have been limited to things like a hurricane, an earthquake, or something that in plain American English you would think of as an emergency," Tony Mendoza, a senior staff attorney with the Sierra Club, said.The DOE, however, argues that the orders address a looming energy reliability emergency in the Midwest.Opponents say that no evidence exists to support the existence of an energy emergency — or that keeping the plants open would address it. NIPSCO and CenterPoint Energy have planned to retire the coal plants for several years. In addition, both utilities received approval from state regulators and MISO, the regional grid operator in charge of ensuring electric reliability in much of the Midwest, to close the units.In an email to IndyStar, McKenzie Barbknecht, a MISO spokesperson, explained that the electric grid in the MISO region faces complex challenges, such as harsh weather, base-load power scarcity and supply chain issues. But in terms of the two coal plant retirements, "our planning resource auction indicated adequate resources are available to meet projected demand and maintain reliability in our region," Barbknecht wrote.Several consumer advocacy groups and environmental firms like Earthjustice, the Sierra Club, Citizens Action Coalition and Just Transition Northwest Indiana have filed an appeal to the DOE over the coal plant orders."There are state and federal safeguards to make sure that reliability is assured in Indiana, and those processes are working fine. There is no emergency to address," Mendoza added. Keeping aging coal plants on the grid can be a costly endeavor. Last year the owners of the J. H. Campbell Generating Plant in West Olive, Michigan, reported it cost about $615,000 a day to keep the plant online in compliance with similar orders from the DOE. The utility filed to recover costs from ratepayers across 11 states in the MISO grid.mIn response to questions from IndyStar after the DOE orders were announced, a CenterPoint spokesperson said utility customers would see no "immediate impact" to their bills. The utility said it was "exploring all opportunities to mitigate any potential future bill impact." Now, CenterPoint and NIPSCO have begun to take steps to recover the cost of keeping the coal plants online — which an energy economics consulting group estimates costs $229,000 a day. This could total more than $20 million by the end of the 90-day order and continue to climb if the order is renewed, as happened in Michigan, where the Campbell plant is still running. Both utilities filed complaints to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to recover some costs for the plants. They asked to receive funds from ratepayers across the MISO region, which stretches across 15 states, rather than just charging these costs to local utility customers.This would "help reduce the financial impact on our customers," Jessica Cantarelli, a spokesperson for NIPSCO, wrote in an email.Because the utilities are currently seeking cost recovery, groups like CAC and the Sierra Club are filing legal challenges, joined by citizens utility boards from states like Wisconsin and Illinois, who represent ratepayers inside the MISO grid that could be asked to pay for Indiana coal plants."What the utilities are asking is to spread this across all ratepayers in the grid. That would mean AES ratepayers are paying. Duke ratepayers are paying," said Jennifer Washburn, CAC's regulatory director. "All of us."Mendoza doesn't want to see any ratepayer — whether a NIPSCO customer or not — who isn't benefitting from the coal plants pay for their continued operation. The disputed reroute of the Line 5 pipeline is officially underway. Energy company Enbridge started clearing trees in late February for a segment of pipeline planned to go around the Bad River Reservation, almost seven years after the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued to have the pipeline removed from its land. The tribe has fought against the reroute since then. And while Enbridge is currently free to proceed, new lawsuits could force work to stop.Separately, Michigan Attorney Dana Nessel and Enbridge lawyers faced off before the U.S. Supreme Court late last month as part of another yearslong legal battle: Nessel wants the part of Line 5 that runs under the Straits of Mackinac shut down over fears a spill could cause ecological disaster in the Great Lakes. The Supreme Court is weighing in on whether the case should continue in state court or be moved to federal court, as Enbridge requested. Meanwhile, key decisions are expected soon on the controversial tunnel Enbridge wants to build beneath the lakebed to house the pipeline.A group of private equity investors including a BlackRock subsidiary is planning to buy the utility that serves more than 520,000 people around Indianapolis. The parent company of AES Indiana, among the state’s largest investor-owned utilities, announced last Monday it agreed to be purchased and could go private as soon as this year. The $33 billion deal has some state leaders worried private ownership will worsen already rising electric rates. A major Michigan utility isn’t budging on plans to sell its hydroelectric dams. If state regulators block Consumers Energy from selling 13 dams to a private equity firm, the utility will decommission them all instead, an executive wrote in testimony last week. The sale agreement faces a host of recommended conditions meant to protect Consumers Energy customers. But the utility said it’s not willing to negotiate the terms of the sale despite concerns from state officials and ratepayer advocates. And who will pay to run the coal plants the Trump administration is keeping open past their retirement dates? Federal regulators will have to decide. The U.S. Department of Energy issued emergency orders in December to delay the closure of two Indiana coal plants, citing an energy reliability emergency. Now the utilities that operate the plants are asking regulators to spread the cost of keeping them open to ratepayers throughout the region, not just local customers.
‘Oh, boy’: Oil industry frets over Trump’s profit-minded Iran post - President Donald Trump may think his war in Iran is a boon for the oil industry — but his way of putting it is causing consternation. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,“ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Wednesday as crude prices rose to $95 per barrel, a 40 percent increase from where they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran nearly two weeks ago. Trump’s post highlights the industry’s complicated relationship with the president — and its messaging conundrum. While oil companies are benefiting financially from the nearly $30-per-barrel run up in crude prices since the war started, executives are also worried that volatile prices are making business decisions difficult, and high prices will generate public backlash. “The idea that the industry profits from war and death is not one a VP of public relations wants to promote,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. Trump’s post drew groans from some in the industry. “Oh, boy….” one energy industry strategist responded when shown Trump’s social media post. Trump’s message also feeds into a perception that oil companies are looking to gouge consumers, said a second industry official granted anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. “This highlights the complicated relationship the oil industry has with the president,” the industry official said. “President Trump’s overarching concern is always the price at the pump — and the lower the better. There is also some notion that the oil and gas industry secretly works to raise prices, which is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the industry works on a global and transparent market basis.” Trump’s post also plays into some voters’ cynicism about business in general and the oil industry in particular, said Mark Mizruchi, a University of Michigan professor who focuses on the economic and political behavior of large American corporations. “The interesting thing about Trump’s statement is that he inadvertently stated a belief that a lot of people have — that something like this happens and the oil companies will make a lot of money,” Mizruchi said. “It probably didn’t occur to him that people — including in the industry — weren’t happy about that” statement.
Trump orders restart of Sable Offshore oil operations in California amid Iran war -The Trump administration on Friday directed Sable Offshore to restart its operations of the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of California, which comes as oil and gas prices surge as a result of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s order for oil production, which followed an executive order signed by President Trump on Friday, intends to “address supply disruption risks caused by California policies that have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil,” according to a statement. “The Trump Administration remains committed to putting all Americans and their energy security first,” Wright said in the statement. “Unfortunately, some state leaders have not adhered to those same principles, with potentially disastrous consequences not just for their residents, but also our national security.” “Today’s order will strengthen America’s oil supply and restore a pipeline system vital to our national security and defense, ensuring that West Coast military installations have the reliable energy critical to military readiness,” he added. The Department of Energy stated that Sable Offshore’s facility can produce around 50,000 barrels of oil per day, “a 15 percent increase to California’s in-state oil production, that can replace nearly 1.5 million barrels of foreign crude each month.” The department claimed that “decades of radical state policies targeting reliable energy sources” have resulted in a decline in domestic output. “Today, more than 60 percent of the oil refined in California comes from overseas, with a significant share traveling through the Strait of Hormuz—presenting serious national security threats,” officials said. Trump’s executive order will also prioritize pipeline transportation capacity, ensuring that crude oil produced off California’s coast travels through interstate pipelines. This action intends to allow California’s “reliance on foreign oil vulnerable to geopolitical disruption” to be reduced.
How Canadian Crude Oil Export Capacity Has Struggled to Keep Up With Production --Canadian crude oil production has nearly doubled over the past decade, with nearly all of those gains coming from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). With those volumes continuing to grow, producers, pipeline companies and politicians are discussing options to add export capacity out of the region. In today’s RBN blog, the second of a series, we review the major pipeline projects that have expanded markets for WCSB barrels since 2010 and how the timing of those pipeline capacity additions lined up with WCSB supply growth. As we said in Part 1, Canadian production recently hit 5.6 MMb/d, and all but 4% of that output comes from the WCSB. The near doubling of production since 2010 is largely attributable to Alberta’s oil sands, as producers invested heavily in both newbuild and expansion projects, especially from the late 2000s through the mid-2010s. So far this decade, Canadian production growth has been driven more by improved capacity utilization at oil-sands projects and growing conventional heavy oil and condensate production than by major oil-sands capacity expansion projects.Let’s start by looking at the WCSB’s current export pipeline capacity. Figure 1 below shows the six pipeline systems that transport WCSB crude oil to outside markets, along with other key pipeline systems moving Canadian crude within the U.S. The 3.2-MMb/d Enbridge Mainline system (light-pink lines) moves roughly two-thirds of all WCSB export volumes, transporting an average of nearly 3.1 MMb/d across the North Dakota border in H1 2025. The recently expanded, now 890-Mb/d Trans Mountain system (dark-purple line) is the second-largest system; it moved an average of 730 Mb/d to Pacific markets in H1 2025, while South Bow’s 610-Mb/d Keystone Pipeline (medium-blue line) moved 576 Mb/d across the North Dakota border in the same six months. The remaining three pipelines — Enbridge’s 310-Mb/d Express (medium-pink line), Plains Midstream Canada’s 100-Mb/d Rangeland (dark-green line) and Inter Pipeline’s 20-Mb/d Milk River (light-green line) — together moved around 340 Mb/d across the Montana border in H1 2025.Western Canada’s three largest outbound pipeline systems, the Enbridge Mainline, Keystone and Trans Mountain pipeline systems, have all provided major capacity increases over the past 16 years. Unfortunately for Canadian crude producers, some of these capacity expansions started up much later than originally expected, largely because of permitting delays. These delays have played a key role in persistently steep price discounts for WCSB crude, as production in excess of demand sometimes outpaced export pipeline capacity.We will begin by reviewing the pipeline projects that added export capacity out of the WCSB since the start of 2010 (see Figure 2 below). TransCanada Corp. (now known as TC Energy) began deliveries on its new Keystone Pipeline in June 2010, providing 435 Mb/d of capacity from Hardisty, AB, into the crude oil hub in Patoka, IL. Keystone’s ex-WCSB capacity increased to 590 Mb/d in February 2011, then to 610 Mb/d in 2022. In 2024, TC Energy spun out its crude oil pipeline business as a separate entity, South Bow Corp., which now operates Keystone.
Mexico Imports Near 7 Bcf/d as Middle East War Adds Upside Risk to Natural Gas Prices - There is a general consensus forming that the longer the war in the Middle East goes on, the more upward pressure will be put on North American natural gas prices.Chart showing NGI’s Agua Dulce and Waha bidweek natural gas prices compared with average U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico from March 2023 through March 2026. Blue bars represent exports rising from around 5 Bcf/d in early 2023 to peaks above 8 Bcf/d in 2025–2026. Black line shows Agua Dulce prices generally increasing from roughly $2/MMBtu in 2023 to above $6/MMBtu in early 2026 before falling. Yellow line shows more volatile Waha prices, frequently below Agua Dulce and dropping below $0/MMBtu at times in 2024–2026. Chart highlights growing U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico alongside Permian Basin price volatility. At A Glance:War keeps bullish pressure alive
Mexico demand tests new record
Storage build cools U.S. rally
Cargo Diversions, Escalating Price War Threaten Latin American LNG Supply - The intensifying conflict in the Middle East is upending global energy flows, with LNG vessels originally destined for Latin America now being diverted to higher-paying markets.Table titled “Latin America DES Prices” (NGI, data as of March 11, 2026) showing LNG delivered ex-ship prices for April, May and June across key Latin American import terminals: Escobar, Argentina ($14.06 Apr; $16.87 May; $16.67 Jun), Pecem, Brazil ($13.40; $16.20; $16.00), Quintero, Chile ($13.74; $16.54; $16.34), Colombia ($12.88; $15.69; $15.48), Altamira, Mexico East ($12.67; $15.48; $15.27), Manzanillo, Mexico West ($13.51; $16.31; $16.11), Costa Norte, Panama ($12.89; $15.70; $15.49), with month-to-month price changes highlighted. At A Glance:
Middle East war disrupts LNG shipping
Europe, Asia outbid regional buyers
Brazil dry season heightens demand risk
Europe Remains Top Destination for U.S. LNG Cargoes Despite Asian Supply Squeeze Amid Middle East War -- Europe for now remains the most economic destination for U.S. LNG as the incentives to move cargoes to Asia have been reduced since war broke out in the Middle East late last month and curbed the region’s energy exports.Chart titled “European Union Gas Storage” showing EU natural gas inventories at 335.92 TWh as of March 8, 2026, representing 29.4% of capacity and significantly below both the five-year average and 2025 levels. The graphic includes a seasonal storage curve comparing current inventories with the previous five-year range and average, alongside a five-year chart of EU gas storage fullness showing a sharp drawdown into early 2026. Source: GIE, NGI calculations.At A Glance:
Cargo diversions slow
Some spot tenders not awarded
Competition set to intensify
War Flips LNG Surplus Narrative, Morgan Stanley Says - The Middle East war and the resulting production halt at the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar, are erasing the projected glut of the fuel that was expected before the region was set on fire, according to Morgan Stanley. Qatar’s state energy firm QatarEnergy last week halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan hub, the world’s largest LNG complex, and later issued force majeure notices to buyers, following a drone attack at the facility and the all but halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the outage in Qatar extends beyond one month, this “quickly brings a deficit” to the market, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Sunday, as carried by Bloomberg.Before the war, Morgan Stanley and all other investment banks and forecasters had anticipated a wave of excess LNG supply to hit the market as soon as this year. But the war in the Middle East is now upending all previous forecasts and assumptions, with the LNG market seen in a deficit very soon if the world’s second-biggest exporter after the United States doesn’t restore supply within a month.Even if the war were to end today, Qatar would likely need “weeks to months” to return to a normal schedule and cycle of energy deliveries, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday.Oil prices could soar to as much as $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if the critical Strait of Hormuz remains off limits for tankers, al-Kaabi told FT. Oil already hit $100 per barrel on Monday while natural gas prices in Asia and Europe continued to soar. Following a 50% weekly jump last week, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices surged by another 20% as trade opened in Amsterdam on Monday as Asia is attracting most flexible-destination LNG cargoes away from Europe amid renewed competition for supply.
Shell and TotalEnergies Issue Force Majeure After Qatar LNG Shut Down -- Several major energy traders have begun declaring force majeure to their own customers after Qatar’s LNG shutdown rippled through global gas markets, according to Reuters sources on Wednesday. Companies including Shell and TotalEnergies–both major portfolio players that lift liquefied natural gas from QatarEnergy–have notified downstream buyers that contractual deliveries may be disrupted following Qatar’s suspension of LNG production. The move marks the first clear sign that Qatar’s export stoppage is cascading through the global LNG trading system. QatarEnergy halted production at its giant LNG complex earlier this month and declared force majeure on shipments after drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. The country operates roughly 77 million tons per year of liquefaction capacity and is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. Shell and TotalEnergies are among the largest marketers of Qatari LNG worldwide. Analysts estimate Shell lifts about 6.8 million tons per annum of LNG from Qatar while TotalEnergies takes roughly 5.2 million tons per year, reselling the cargoes to utilities and industrial buyers across Europe and Asia. Neither company publicly confirmed the force majeure declarations. Shell declined to comment, while TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Qatar’s shutdown has already halted LNG exports for days at a time. According to Kpler vessel-tracking data cited by Bloomberg, the country recorded five consecutive days without any LNG shipments — the longest interruption since 2008. The disruption has removed a major portion of global LNG supply from the market. No LNG carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, affecting cargoes from Qatar as well as shipments normally leaving the United Arab Emirates. With Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, the halt has pushed Asian and European gas markets higher as buyers scramble for alternative supply. Some cargoes originally headed to Europe have already been diverted toward higher-priced Asian markets, tightening availability for European utilities. Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that restoring normal LNG deliveries could take “weeks to months,” even if the conflict in the region were to end immediately.
Global Natural Gas Prices Skyrocket Amid Intensifying Middle East War - Global natural gas prices soared Monday, extending their biggest gains since the energy crisis of 2022 as conflict in the Middle East that has cut off a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies shows no signs of ending soon. Chart Of European Union Natural Gas Storage Levels Showing 335.92 TWh In Storage As Of March 7, 2026, Equivalent To 29.4% Full, Significantly Below The Five-Year Average Of 489.68 TWh And Down 91.8 TWh Year Over Year, With Historical Storage Percentage Trends From 2021-2026. At A Glance:
TTF hits high of $23.62
Brent crude near $100
LNG cargoes diverting for Asia
Europe Could Again Cap Natural Gas Prices as Energy Crisis Spirals --- The European Union (EU) is again considering a natural gas price cap as the world confronts another energy crisis that has knocked out more than 20% of global LNG production capacity. Bar chart titled “Europe LNG Imports by Region of Origin” comparing liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe from 2020 through 2025. The United States dominates LNG imports with a sharp rise after 2021, far exceeding other sources including the Russian Federation, Qatar, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, EU & EEA, Latin America & Caribbean, the Middle East, Asia and Other regions. The chart highlights Europe’s growing reliance on U.S. LNG following the decline in Russian pipeline gas supplies. At A Glance:
Last price cap implemented in 2022
Mechanism was never triggered
LNG provides 40% of Europe’s gas supply
Fuel Switching, Industrial Cuts Poised to Push Asian LNG Demand Far Lower if War Continues - The scramble for LNG supply in Asia is poised to get much worse in the months ahead if war in the Middle East continues.Chart Titled “Asia LNG Parity Prices” Showing Japan/Korea LNG Futures Around $15.92/MMBtu Versus Oil-Linked Parity Levels Near $12–$15/MMBtu, With Brent Crude at $87.80, Coal Prices Near $6.61/MMBtu, And The Implied JCC Slope Rising To About 18% As Asian LNG Prices Spike In Early 2026. At A Glance:
Last of Qatari cargoes reaching region
North Asia working through storage
Worst of crisis yet to come
India Urges LPG Users to Switch to Piped Gas Amid Supply Disruptions -- India is urging households and businesses to switch from LPG cylinders to piped natural gas where possible as shipping disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict tighten fuel supplies. (Reuters) — India has asked liquefied petroleum gas consumers to avoid panic buying of LPG cylinders and shift to piped natural gas where possible, oil ministry official Sujata Sharma said on March 13. India's crude oil, LPG, and liquefied natural gas supplies have been disrupted due to global shipping constraints after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran halted traffic through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. "LPG is an issue of concern," said Sharma, a joint secretary in the federal oil ministry, adding the government is cracking down on black marketing and hoarding of LPG cylinders in coordination with states. About 333 million households use LPG cylinders, and more than 150 million get gas supplies through pipelines. Sharma said about six million LPG-consuming households could easily switch to piped gas use. "We request them to avail piped gas connection to ease pressure on LPG," she said. She also said that commercial and industrial consumers in major urban cities facing LPG shortages should contact their local city gas distribution company to arrange a piped gas connection. Panic Buying India consumed 33.15 million metric tons of cooking gas last year, with imports accounting for about 60% of demand. About 90% of those imports came from the Middle East. Panic buying had pushed daily LPG booking requests to about 7.6 million as of March 12 from around 5.5 million on March 1, with most bookings made online, Sharma said. India has asked refiners to boost LPG production. Domestic LPG production has risen by 30% since March 5, she said. The government has prioritized LPG supplies for households, followed by hospitals and educational institutions, while allowing commercial users to use alternative fuels such as biomass, coal and fuel oil. India has asked Coal India, the country's top coal producer, to make coal available to small and medium enterprises and the hospitality sector, including restaurants and hotels, Sharma said. To overcome the shortage, Indian ports are giving priority berthing to LPG carriers, said Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special secretary at the ministry of shipping.
Saudi Aramco Cuts Oil Output as Hormuz Crisis Chokes Exports -- Saudi Aramco has begun reducing oil production at two of its fields as the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz starts to choke off crude exports across the Gulf, according to sources cited by Reuters on Monday.The move comes just hours before the Saudi oil giant is due to report its 2025 earnings on Tuesday, placing the focus squarely on whether the world’s largest oil exporter can keep crude moving during the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.It was not immediately clear which oilfields were affected or how much production had been reduced. Aramco declined to comment on the reported cuts.The production curbs mark one of the clearest signs yet that the disruption around Hormuz is beginning to constrain supply from the region that normally exports roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. Tanker traffic through the strategic waterway has slowed sharply in recent days as military activity, security risks and insurance cancellations make shipping increasingly difficult. Aramco has begun rerouting some crude cargoes to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, attempting to bypass the Strait of Hormuz using Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline network. The system allows the kingdom to move crude from its eastern oilfields to export terminals on the Red Sea, avoiding the Gulf shipping lane.However, the pipeline cannot fully replace the massive volumes that normally leave Saudi Arabia through Hormuz, meaning export bottlenecks are now beginning to appear as storage tanks fill.Other Gulf producers are running into the same export constraints as the shipping crisis spreads across the region’s energy system.Crude output from Iraq’s southern fields has plunged by roughly 70% since the war began, dropping to about 1.3 million barrels per day from roughly 4.3 million barrels per day previously. Southern Iraq accounts for the vast majority of the country’s oil production and exports.“Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, and the remaining output after the major cut will be used to supply the country’s refineries,” a Basra Oil Company official told Reuters.Export activity has slowed dramatically. On Sunday, only two tankers were loaded at Iraq’s southern export terminals, each carrying about 2 million barrels. The vessels remained in the Persian Gulf according to vessel-tracking data.Kuwait has now begun taking similar steps as storage fills across the region. Kuwait has started shutting in production at several oilfields because the standstill in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has left the country with limited capacity to store additional crude.
Crude Cushion: IEA Announces Record 400 MMbbl Release as Hormuz Flows Remain Blocked | RBN Energy Earlier today (Wednesday, March 11), the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release up to 400 MMbbl from their emergency reserves to the market to help ease supply disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East. As discussed in this week's Crude Billboard, with IEA members collectively holding over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stockpiles, this is the largest coordinated draw in the agency’s history, eclipsing the 183 MMbbl release in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The goal this time is straightforward: cool a fast-moving oil rally triggered by the Middle East conflict and the near shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries in the global oil trade. That chokepoint matters. Roughly one in every five barrels of seaborne crude normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden disruption has sidelined a large share of Persian Gulf exports, reducing activity to just 10%-15% of normal levels, with crude prices soaring into the triple digits over the weekend. Prices eased briefly after the IEA announcement, but traders are still waiting for the fine print. Key questions remain around how quickly the barrels will reach the market and what the crude-to-products mix will look like. For reference, the last coordinated IEA release in 2022 was about 73% crude and 27% refined products, with diesel making up the largest slice of the product barrels. Some countries have already put numbers on the table. Japan plans to release 80 MMbbl, followed by South Korea (22.5 MMbbl), Germany (19.5 MMbbl), France (up to 14.5 MMbbl), and the U.K. (13.5 MMbbl). The U.S. contribution has not yet been formally announced, though officials indicated President Trump will provide details. The expectation is that the U.S. will carry the largest share through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil which currently holds about 415 MMbbl and can release up to 4.4 MMb/d at full capacity. Even so, SPR barrels typically take about two weeks to reach the market after authorization. At the high end of those estimates, the stock draw would likely replace only part of the barrels currently missing from global supply if the conflict and closure continue long term. In other words, this move may buy the market some time, but it does not solve the underlying problem. The real pressure valve for global oil balances remains the Strait of Hormuz. Until tanker traffic resumes through that narrow stretch of water, the market will continue to price in the risk that a sizable portion of Gulf supply remains stranded on the wrong side of the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
Oil Prices Surge Over 25% As Iran War Disrupts Supply Near Strait Of Hormuz - On Monday, oil prices in the world markets took off and climbed to their highest point in almost three years, posing pressure on the U.S. shale industry as the energy markets were shaken by the geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the supply chains. Early Asian trades saw the rise of the brent crude futures by $24.96, or approximately 27, to 117.65 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) by 25.72 or 28.3 to 116.62, provided by the Reuters market data. WTI had earlier in the session had a brief rise - 31.4 up to $119.48 per barrel with Brent increasing by up to 29 to $119.50 which are the highest since July 2022 comes to pass. The acute rally was the next week to follow a consecutive week of sharp gains, as Brent and WTI have already risen by about 27 and 35.6 percent, respectively, in the past week. The surge indicates the increasing apprehension that the increasing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran may greatly impair oil shipments by the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately, one-fifth of the oil reserves in the world usually flows through the thin waterway between the Persian Gulf and the international markets. Delays in shipping and increased worries on the security of shipping through the strait has negatively affected the tanker movements, especially to the buyers in Asia who are major customers of Middle Eastern crude. Simultaneously, some of the key manufacturers into the area have started reducing production with the conflict escalating. Iraq and Kuwait have already cut output and analysts believe other Gulf producers might not be far behind, should the export routes threaten to be blocked. The spike in price is also spilling over financial markets and causing concerns that energy prices can stay high in several months even in case enmity is gone. "Unless the impact of oil traffic via the Strait of Hormuz will resume soon and whilst the area tensions ease, it can be expected that the upward pressure on prices may continue", according to Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore. The market has also responded to geopolitical uncertainty with an aggravation of the reaction to supply shocks in the Gulf. Reuters according to industry sources claimed that Iraqi oil extraction on its southern fields has been reduced drastically with the export routes passing via the Strait of Hormuz being limited. Three industry sources have said that the entirety of the Iraqi primary producing area has weakened by approximately 70 percent to merely 1.3million barrels daily due to the country being unable to export the crude through the strait. Southern Iraq storage facilities have also been over-filled meaning that the nation has a low capacity to sustain production. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation too has started reducing production and has announced force majeure on shipments, but it did not indicate the extent of cuts. Other regional producers may soon meet the same predicament, according to analysts, as shipping disruptions continue to happen. The further uncertainty to the market has been brought by the further attacks leveled on the energy infrastructure by Iran. The governments of the United Arab Emirates claimed that a drone attack led to the explosion of a fire in one of the oil industry sectors of Fujairah but no casualties were reported. The defence ministry of Saudi Arabia reported that it had intercepted a drone flying into an oilfield at Shaybah, explaining that there is an increasing threat of the facilities that store energy in the region being pulled into the battle. Market sentiment has also been affected by political developments within Iran. Recently the Iranian city of Tehran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in the country following the death of his father Ali Khamenei in the conflict. The denouement of a hard-line successor has solidified the hopes that situation with the United States and Israel might continue. The ambition of the U.S. President Donald Trump to overthrow the regime in Iran has been hampered by the fact that the new leader of Iran is the son of the late leader Satoru Yoshida a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities. The perception hastened purchases because Iran is likely to keep its blockade over the Strait of Hormuz and to attack other oil-producing countries facility as was the case last week. Yoshida also commented that WTI prices may go to $120 and potentially $130 per barrel in case the disturbances persist. U.S. Shale outlook being changed by high Prices. Although increasing crude oil is usually a good change to the U.S. shale producers, the present boom has a complex future to the industry. An increase in oil prices will drive up revenues of shale operator in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. But long-term volatility and geopolitical insecurity can as well interfere with the investment planning, and supply chains and drilling activity. The last several years were characterized by financial discipline, by the U.S. shale companies that have experienced previous periods of boom growth and excessive borrowing. Numerous producers have focused on the returns on their shareholders and debt reduction, instead of aggressively drilling. Consequently, analysts believe that shale production might not react fast to a rise in price as it was the case in other past oil booms. Daniel Hynes (ANZ senior commodity strategist) cautioned that "there are more serious implications of global supply system disruptions when they are sustained over time". The next flag will be whether it could reach a stage where they will need to begin closing in oil wells, which despite being another blow to output it will take time to react when the conflict displays signs of easing also. That would possibly maintain such prices a lot longer. Political discussion in Washington has also enhanced the skyrocketing in prices. U.S. Senate Democrat Majority Whip Chuck Schumer called on President Donald Trump to "order oil to be released to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize the markets and ease consumer pressure". Schumer wrote that President Trump is to release oil in the SPR to stabilize the markets, reduce prices, and prevent the price shock that American families already experience due to his irresponsible war. Energy analysts have observed that a strategic reserve release would only help in the short run, but would not solve the long run market disruptions caused by the Middle East trouble. The world markets are now highly observing the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz where normal tanker traffic is yet to be witnessed. According to traders, additional assaults on shipping routes or energy plants will keep pushing the price of oil even higher in the nearest future. To date, the swift intensified geopolitical tensions and supply shocks have taken crude prices to their highest point since 2022, highlighting the delicate nature in which global energy markets would respond to the situation in the Middle East.
Oil Prices Surge to Highest Levels Since Mid-2022 -- Oil prices surged more than 25% on Monday to their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran. Energy markets are particularly nervous because the crisis is unfolding around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes. Disruptions in tanker movements and rising security risks have already slowed shipping activity, leaving Asian buyers especially vulnerable given their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up $24.96 or 27% at $117.65 per barrel at 0451 GMT - on track for the biggest-ever jump in a single day, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures were up $25.72, or 28.3%, to $116.62. WTI surged 31.4% to a session high of $119.48 a barrel earlier on Monday, while Brent rose as much as 29% to $119.50 a barrel. Before the surge on Monday, Brent had already climbed 27% and WTI by 35.6% last week. “Unless oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon and regional tensions ease, upward pressure on prices is likely to persist,” said Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore. Iraq and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, adding to earlier liquefied natural gas reductions from Qatar, as the war blocked shipments from the Middle East. Analysts expect the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will have to also cut output soon as they run out of oil storage. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel. “With the appointment of the late leader’s son as Iran’s new leader, US President Donald Trump’s goal of regime change in Iran has become more difficult,” said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities. “That view accelerated buying, as Iran is expected to continue its closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on other oil-producing nations’ facilities, as seen last week,” he said, predicting WTI could rise to $120 and then $130 a barrel in a relatively short period. The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping. “The next flag will be whether it eventually gets to a point where they have to start shutting in oil wells, which not only impacts output even further, it delays a response once the conflict eases as well. That would potentially sustain those prices for much longer,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, three industry sources said on Sunday. Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, said an official with the state-run Basra Oil Company. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure on shipments, though it did not say how much production it would shut. Iran’s attacks on oil infrastructure across the region have continued. Fujairah Media Office said fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah oil industry zone resulting from debris falling, with no injuries reported. Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry said on X it intercepted a drone heading to the Shaybah oilfield. Israel’s military has threatened to kill any replacement for the deceased Ali Khamenei, while Trump said the war might only end once Iran’s military and rulers had been wiped out. Meanwhile, as oil prices surged, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “President Trump should release oil from the SPR now to stabilize markets, bring prices down, and stop the price shock that American families are already feeling thanks to his reckless war,” Schumer said in a statement.
Oil Fails to Stay Above $100 as G7 Mulls Reserve Release - Oil prices settled in the mid- $90 bbl level after hitting nearly $120 bbl on Monday (3/9) as finance ministers from the Group of Seven(G7) announced plans to release emergency crude reserves to offset a disruption in supply caused by the Iran war in the Middle East. "We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release," the ministers said in a statement, referring to the 1.2 billion bbl the G7 held in coordination with the Paris-based International Energy Agency. The grouping of developed countries was planning an initial release of between 300 million and 400 million bbl, reports said. Crude prices retreated from their highs on reports that Saudi Arabian producers were offering oil on spot markets, in a rare move to fill a potential void in crude supplies. More Recommended for You NYMEX WTI for April delivery settled up $3.87, or 4%, at $94.77 bbl. It surged 11% earlier to a four-year high of $119.48. The ICE Brent contract for May closed up $6.27, or 7%, at $98.96 bbl, after a 10% run up to $119.50. "The bottom line here is that the risk to the supply is still high," "Iran, as long as they have missiles, they can create havoc and it's going to be very difficult to get prices to stay down." In Monday's morning trade, crude prices reached highs not seen since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine on news that Iran had installed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader to replace his slain father, Ali Khamenei, against U.S. wishes. It was a sign that the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, now into its 10th day, could drag a notion, underscored by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, who said, "as long as attacks continue, there is no point in talking about anything but defense and retaliation against enemies." Tehran's continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz -- where a fifth of the world's oil supply passes -- also underpinned the rally. Reports said only two crude or refined product tankers exited the Persian Gulf on Sunday (3/8), versus the typical daily average of 35 carrying some 21 million bpd petroleum liquids. Downstream, NYMEX gasoline and ULSD futures reached their loftiest levels since July 2022 before retracing. Gasoline for April delivery finished up $0.0618 at $2.8084 gallon, after a run-up to $3.2205. ULSD was the only major component of the NYMEX complex to settle the day in the session in the red, with the front-month contract closing down $0.0358 at $3.5866 gallon, after a peak at $4.4715. The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.166 points to 99.145 against a basket of currencies.
Oil dips below $90 after Trump says Iran war 'is very complete' --Oil prices slipped below $90 per barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump said that the war with Iran "is very complete, pretty much" and the Group of Seven (G7) energy ministers signaled they could release strategic crude reserves to help offset the major supply disruption triggered by the Iran war. Brent crude was down 4.2% at $87.2 per barrel as of 2010GMT Monday, after earlier surging to $119.50. The spike marked the first time oil traded above $100 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3% at $88.3 per barrel, after climbing as high as $119 overnight. The surge in prices followed production cuts by Gulf Arab countries as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to security threats from Iran, disrupting the movement of crude shipments. However, prices sank after Trump told CBS News on Monday that the Iran war “is very complete, pretty much." "(Iran has) no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones," he said, adding that the US is “very far” ahead of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame for the war. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said ships are moving through it now, but also that he is “thinking about taking it over.” Separately, G7 finance ministers discussed the impact of the Iran conflict during a virtual meeting on Monday and signaled readiness to stabilize global energy markets. “We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” they said in a joint statement. The G7 members include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that higher oil prices were a “very small price to pay” for eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat, adding that “only fools would think differently.” Meanwhile, Gulf Arab producers have reduced output as crude accumulates in storage facilities due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers have largely avoided the narrow waterway amid concerns Iran could target vessels transiting the route.
Oil soared to $119 but settled under $100 on Monday - After soaring Monday to hit $119 a barrel, crude oil prices finished down while the military attacks by the U.S., Israel and other middle eastern countries continued against Iran. Reuters indicated early in the session, Brent soared by $26.81 to $119.50 a barrel, and WTI hit a session high of $119.48. Those were the highest intraday prices for both crude benchmarks since June 2022, comparable with all-time highs of $147.50 a barrel for Brent and $147.27 for WTI in July 2008. Since the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, Brent has surged by as much as 65% and WTI 78%. By the close of trading, oil prices still managed a 7% increase following the 29% jump during the session. Prices again rose as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries cut supplies while the war was expanded against Iran. While prices jumped and retreated, the U.S. and other Group of Seven countries considered tapping strategic petroleum reserves. West Texas Intermediate crude finished up $3.87 or 4.3% to settle at $94.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude closed with a gain of $6.27 or 6.8% at $98.96 a barrel, less than its Sunday close of nearly $105 a barrel. The Monday closes for WTI and Brent were their highest settlement prices since August 2022. The gain in crude oil prices resulted in another jump for gasoline prices across the U.S. on Monday as they rose 2 cents per gallon from Sunday to reach a new average of $3.47, according to AAA. Diesel fuel across the nation rose 6 cents and reached $4.65 per gallon Gasoline prices in Oklahoma hit an average of $2.97, an increase of one cent while diesel fuel prices rose 5 cents to reach an average of $4.05. Oklahoma City’s gasoline averaged $3.01, a penny higher than Sunday and its diesel fuel average was $3.99, up 4 cents. The average gasoline price in Tulsa was unchanged at $3 a gallon while diesel fuel went up 6 cents at $4.26 per gallon. Natural gas finished at $3.062 MMBtu after a decline of $0.124 or 3.89%.
Oil Market Extends Selloff as War De-Escalation Hopes Shake Supply Fears - The oil market remained pressured on Tuesday following the market’s sharp sell off on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted that the war in the Middle East could end soon, lowering expectations of prolonged disruptions to oil supply. The oil market retraced some of Monday’s losses as it posted a high of $91.48 in overnight trading. However, the market erased its gains and extended its losses to over $18 as it posted a low of $76.73 in afternoon trading on the news that the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, convened an extraordinary meeting of the group to assess market conditions, while the Group of Seven nations asked the agency to prepare scenarios for the release of emergency oil stockpiles. The market was further pressured after U.S. Energy Secretary said the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The market later bounced off its low ahead of the close following reports that there was no U.S. escort of an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The April WTI contract ended the session down $11.32 at $83.45 and the May Brent contract ended the day down $11.16 at $87.80. The product markets also settled sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 24 cents at $3.3466 and the RB market settling down 16.81 cents at $2.6403. The EIA said Brent oil prices are set to remain above $95/barrel over the next two months as conflict in the Middle East rages on. Brent crude futures will then fall below $80/barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before falling to around $70/barrel by the end of the year. The effective closure of the critical chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil flows every day, will cause Mideast oil output to fall further in the coming weeks. The EIA added that those production shut-ins will gradually ease as transit resumes. It said higher oil prices are set to lead to more U.S. oil output and expects U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million bpd in 2026 and increase by 220,000 bpd to 13.83 million bpd in 2027. The new forecast represents an increase of about 500,000 barrels from the agency’s previous forecast. It raised U.S. retail gasoline prices by 43 cents from a previous forecast to $3.34/gallon in 2026 and $3.18/gallon in 2027. It raised its retail diesel price forecast for 2026 to $4.12/gallon, up 20.1% from its previous estimate.The U.S. EIA reported that U.S. crude oil exports fell by 3% in 2025 from 2024, the first annual decrease since 2021. The U.S. exported 4.0 million bpd of crude oil, 85 times as much as in 2011, but slightly less than in 2023 and 2024. The EIA also noted U.S. exports decreased to Europe and the Asia and Oceania region, the two top regional destinations for U.S. crude oil. It added exports to Europe decreased by 7%, likely because increased output from OPEC replaced volumes from the U.S., while exports declined by 75% to Singapore and 89% to China. The annual decrease in exports comes despite a 3% increase in crude oil production to a record 13.6 million bpd. U.S. net imports of crude oil decreased to 2.2 million bpd in 2025 from 2.5 million bpd in 2024.
Oil prices tumble by 15% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation – Oil prices plunged by about 15 per cent on Tuesday, a day after soaring to their highest levels since 2022, pressured after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war with Iran could end soon, which should minimize oil supply disruptions. Brent futures fell $14.23, or 14.5 per cent, to $84.73 a barrel at 2:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $14.46, or 15.5 per cent, to $80.31. Prices were even lower at midday, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that the American military had facilitated a shipment of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. "President Trump is maintaining stability of global energy during the military operations against Iran," Wright posted at 1:02 p.m. local time before the post appeared to be removed. "The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets," Wright said. Trump's Republicans will soon be campaigning to retain control of U.S. Congress in November midterm elections, with many voters worried about rising energy prices. “This is the market reacting to the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen," said Andrew Lipow, founder of Lipow Oil Associates. "From the administration’s perspective, the move also carries clear optics: lower oil and gasoline prices help ease consumer pain." On Monday, both crude benchmarks surged to a session high above $119 a barrel, their highest since June 2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies. Prices settled with more modest gains on Monday, then retreated in late trade and into Tuesday after Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a call and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide. In addition, Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was "very complete" and Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame. "Clearly Trump's comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank. Israel's foreign minister said Israel is not seeking an endless war with Iran and will coordinate with the U.S. on when to end the fighting. Even if the war ends, oil supplies will not immediately rebound, said Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "When the conflict ends, cranking up the supply chain won't be swift," Flowers said. "Product barrels in storage at refineries or in port might be moved on vessels quite quickly. But if wells are shut-in for a prolonged period, restarting production to full output could take weeks or even longer." In response to Trump, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran would not allow "one litre of oil" to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump was considering easing oil sanctions on Russia related to Moscow's war in Ukraine, and releasing emergency crude stockpiles to help curb spiking prices, according to multiple sources. "Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 (Group of Seven) countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," Priyanka Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova analyst, said in a note. G7 energy ministers stopped short of agreeing on a release of strategic oil reserves on Tuesday and instead asked the International Energy Agency to assess the situation before acting. The U.S. and Israel pounded Iran on Tuesday with what the Pentagon and Iranians on the ground said were the most intense airstrikes of the war, even as global markets bet that Trump will seek to end the conflict soon. Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, said there would be "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 1.9 million barrels per day of crude refining capacity in the Gulf has been shut in due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, consultancy IIR said. "Policy measures may have limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential losses of up to 12 million bpd over the next two weeks," JPMorgan said in a note. In the latest disruption to global supplies, Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery, a source said on Tuesday, after a fire broke out at a facility within the complex following a drone strike. Goldman Sachs said that because the situation remains fluid, it was not changing its oil price forecast for Brent at $66 per barrel in the fourth quarter and WTI at $62 per barrel.
Oil retreats even after Energy Secretary wrongly claims Navy escorted tanker through Strait of Hormuz - Oil prices retreated Tuesday, even after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright wrongly claimed in a social media post that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. “The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday. U.S. crude oil fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 per barrel. Brent crude , the global benchmark, lost 11.28% to settle at $87.80. Prices fell more than 17% immediately after Wright’s post. “I was made aware of this post,” Leavitt said. “I haven’t had a chance to talk to the Energy secretary about it directly.” “However, I know the post was taken down pretty quickly,” she said. Wright had said “the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.” An Energy Department spokesperson, in a statement later Tuesday, said, “A video clip was deleted from Secretary Wright’s official X account after it was determined to be incorrectly captioned by Department of Energy staff.” “President Trump, Secretary Wright, and the rest of the President’s energy team are closely monitoring the situation, speaking with industry leaders, and having the U.S. military draw up additional options to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, including the potential for our Navy to escort tankers,” the spokesperson said. Traffic through the critical Strait has been severely disrupted as oil shippers fear attacks by Iran, keeping ships at anchor. About 20% of global petroleum consumption was exported through the narrow waterway prior to the war. The International Energy Agency will hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to discuss a possible release of emergency stockpiles. The more than 30 members states are advanced economies in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia. They collectively hold 1.2 billion barrels of oil in reserve. The Iran war has triggered the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil industry, according to an analysis by Rapidan Energy. Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that the war will have “catastropic consequences” for the market. “While we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Tuesday.
Two Oil Tankers Set Ablaze Near Iraq’s Key Export Terminals Two oil tankers carrying Iraqi oil products caught fire Wednesday after being struck in Iraqi territorial waters near the country’s southern export terminals, according to Iraqi port officials and multiple media reports. The vessels, Vishnu, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker chartered to an Iraqi company, and Zefyros, a Malta-flagged tanker transporting condensate from the Basra Gas Company, were operating near Iraq’s Al-Faw port area close to Basra when the incident occurred. Iraq’s director general of the General Company for Ports, Farhan al-Fartousi, told CNN that 38 crew members, all of whom were foreign nationals, were rescued from the tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO told CNN the vessels were attacked “while present in the sideloading area within Iraqi territorial waters.” Iran claimed responsibility for the attacks via state media, saying an underwater drone attack “blew up two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf tonight." Footage circulating on social media shows thick black smoke rising from the tankers as flames spread across the decks and surrounding water. The tankers could have been carrying up to 400,000 barrels of Iraqi oil and condensate combined, and the attack triggered leaks of fuel into the surrounding waters. Following the incident, Iraqi authorities temporarily halted operations at the country’s oil export ports, although commercial ports remained open. The attack comes amid a sharp rise in maritime incidents across the Persian Gulf as tensions escalate between Iran, the United States, and Israel. At least 14 vessels have been struck in recent weeks, with three confirmed strikes on Wednesday as the conflict continues to escalate. Oil prices continued to rally despite the announcement by the IEA of a record-breaking reserve release.
Six vessels attacked amid reports of Iranian drone boats, sea mines | Al Jazeera - Iranian explosive-laden boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters, according to reports. The ships targeted in late-night attacks on Wednesday in the Gulf near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officials told the Reuters news agency. One Iraqi port security source said the Zefyros was flagged in Malta. “We recovered the body of a foreign crew member from the water,” one port security official said, as Iraqi rescue teams continued searching for other missing seafarers. It was not immediately clear which ship that person was linked to. “A boat belonging to the Iraqi Ports Company rescued 25 crew members from the two vessels, and the fires are still burning on both ships,” Farhan al-Fartousi, director general of the state-run General Company for Ports of Iraq (GCPI), told Reuters. Al-Fartousi told Iraq’s state news agency that oil ports have completely stopped operations following the attacks, while commercial ports continue to function. Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Baghdad, Iraq, Mahmoud Abdelwahed, said the attack on the two tankers was described as sabotage by officials. “Iraqi officials say this is a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty given the fact this act, they say, of sabotage has happened in Iraq’s territorial waters,” Abdelwahed said. Reuters said that reports of the use of explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels, which Ukraine has used with great effect in its war with Russia, come as Iran has blocked oil shipments from transiting the key Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transits but has been blocked amid the United States-Israeli war on Iran. Reuters, citing two unnamed sources, also reported on Wednesday that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, while US President Donald Trump said US forces had struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels, amid warnings by Trump of severe repercussions should Iran lay mines in the key waterway for global shipping. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have warned that any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted. Early on Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre said an unidentified projectile struck a container ship, causing a small fire, 35 nautical miles (64.8km) north of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates. The crew were reported safe. The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree dry bulk vessel was struck by “two projectiles of unknown origin” while sailing through the strait on Wednesday, causing a fire and damaging the engine room, the ship’s Thai-listed operator Precious Shipping said in a statement. “Three crew members are reported missing and believed to be trapped in the engine room,” Precious Shipping said. “The company is working with the relevant authorities to rescue these three missing crew members,” it said, adding that the remaining 20 crew members had been safely evacuated and were ashore in Oman. Images shared by Thai news outlet Khaosod English showed what were reported to be crew members of the ship after their rescue by Oman’s navy. The IRGC said in a statement carried by the semiofficial Tasnim news agency that the ship was “fired upon by Iranian fighters”, suggesting the first direct engagement by the IRGC, which has previously fired missiles or drones. The Japan-flagged container ship ONE Majesty also sustained minor damage on Wednesday from an unknown projectile 25 nautical miles (about 46 kilometres) northwest of Ras Al-Khaimah in the UAE, two maritime security firms said. Its Japanese owner Mitsui OSK Lines and a spokesperson for Ocean Network Express, its charterer, said the vessel was struck while at anchor in the Gulf, and an inspection of the hull revealed minor damage above the waterline. All crew are safe, they said, adding that the vessel remains fully operational and seaworthy. The owner said the cause of the incident remained unclear and was under investigation. A third vessel, a bulk carrier, was also hit by an unknown projectile approximately 50 nautical miles (about 93km) northwest of Dubai, maritime security firms said. The projectile had damaged the hull of the Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth, maritime risk management company Vanguard said, adding that the vessel’s crew were safe. Owner Star Bulk Carriers said the ship was hit in the hold area while it was anchored. There were no crew injuries and no listing.
Oil Prices Jump After Tanker Attacks In Iraqi Waters Amid Escalating West Asia War --Global oil markets moved higher after reports of attacks on fuel tankers in Iraqi waters added another layer of uncertainty to energy supplies already strained by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. According to a Reuters report, oil prices climbed after Iraqi officials said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were struck by explosive-laden boats, triggering fires and raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the region. The latest incident comes as West Asia conflict continues to disrupt energy flows and intensify volatility across global oil markets. Benchmark crude prices rose sharply following the reports of tanker attacks. Brent crude futures increased by $5.69, or 6.19 per cent, to $97.67 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $5.11, or 5.86 per cent, to $92.36, in early Asian trading. The gains reflect mounting concerns that the conflict in West Asia could disrupt supply chains in one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. Energy traders are closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf, where key export routes and infrastructure remain vulnerable to escalation. Tankers Attacked In Iraqi Territorial Waters The price surge followed confirmation from Iraqi officials that two vessels transporting Iraqi fuel oil had been targeted. Farhan al‑Fartousi, director general of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, told Reuters that two foreign tankers were hit by unidentified attackers while operating in Iraqi territorial waters. The strikes caused both vessels to catch fire. Initial findings from Iraqi security officials suggested that explosive‑laden boats launched from Iran were responsible for the attacks, though investigations were still ongoing. The incident marks one of the most direct threats to maritime oil shipments in the region since the latest phase of the conflict began. The tanker attacks come amid broader geopolitical tensions triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran, which has already disrupted energy flows across West Asia. The region plays a central role in the global oil system, and any threat to shipping routes quickly reverberates through commodity markets. Analysts say that disruptions to tanker movements and oil production facilities could tighten global supply conditions if the conflict continues. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the latest escalation appeared to be a strong response to efforts by international authorities to stabilise oil prices. "This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA's overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices," Sycamore told Reuters. In an effort to contain the surge in oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release a record volume of crude from global strategic reserves. The agency announced plans to release around 400 million barrels of oil to stabilise markets facing supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. The United States is contributing the largest portion of the release, providing about 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Reuters. The move is intended to increase supply temporarily and prevent oil prices from spiralling further. However, analysts caution that reserve releases may only offer short‑term relief if geopolitical disruptions continue. A major concern for energy markets remains the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil shipments pass through the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets. If tensions escalate further and tanker traffic is restricted, the impact on global oil supply could be significant. Amid the growing tensions, US President Donald Trump said Washington was closely watching developments in the region’s strategic shipping routes. Trump said the United States was in "very good shape" in its war on Iran and indicated that the administration was monitoring the straits closely. At the same time, intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact despite the conflict.
Crude Oil Jumps 4% as Traders Price In Supply Disruption - Oil prices rebounded early on Wednesday as the market fears a massive supply crunch from the ongoing blockage at the Strait of Hormuz, which offset reports that the IEA is preparing its largest-ever release from strategic oil stocks. As of 6:31 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, the front-month Brent Crude futures prices moved above $90 per barrel again, having slumped to $88 at close on Tuesday. Brent was trading at $91.15, up by 3.80%. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up above $86 per barrel, at $86.86, after jumping by 4.10% so far on the day. Prices had calmed for a few hours late on Monday and on Tuesday after the market apparently believed U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments that the war in Iran “is very complete, pretty much”. In addition, reports emerged that the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest-ever release of emergency stocks, of about 400 million barrels. This, if approved, would be more than double the 182 million barrels that IEA member states put on the market after Russia invaded Ukraine and priced spiked above $100 per barrel then, officials with knowledge of the matter told the Wall Street Journal. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency hosted a meeting of G-7 Energy Ministers in Paris to discuss the situation in the Middle East and potentially take measures to mitigate the fallout on the global oil market.IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that the group discussed all available options to stabilize the market, including the possible release of emergency stockpiles held by IEA member countries.On Wednesday, the market started panicking again about the huge supply of crude that cannot leave the Arab Gulf region, where OPEC’s top producers have already slashed crude output amid a lack of storage and blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI Extends Gains, Shrugs Off SPR Release Amid Crude Build, Dip In US Production - Oil prices are higher this morning, shrugging off the well-telegraphed (and practically useless) SPR release. "Oil prices remain volatile and risk sentiment fragile and trading is on the headlines and rapidly evolving conflict in the Middle East," noted Neil Wilson, Saxo UK investor strategist. And while, the main drivers of crude prices remain more global, the domestic supply and demand situation remains noteworthy based on its impact on gasoline (pump) prices. API
- Crude -1.7mm (+1.1mm exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline -1.8mm
- Distillates -2.3mm
DOE
- Crude +3.82mm (+1.1mm exp)
- Cushing +117k
- Gasoline -3.65mm - biggest draw since Oct 2025
- Distillates -1.35mm
Crude stocks rose more than expected last week (third week in a row) while gasoline stocks saw sizable draws (for the fourth week in a row)... For the third week in a row, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which is now once again making headlines) saw no change... US Crude production dipped modestly last week as the rig count stabilized... Oil prices extended gains...
Oil Soars As 2 Oil Tankers Explode In Persian Gulf, Iraq's Oil Ports Stop Operations -- Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil have been subjected to unidentified attacks within Iraqi territorial waters, causing both vessels to catch fire, according to security sources cited by Baghdad Today and according to the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO). The tankers are:
- Tanker SAFESEA VISHNU, flying flag of Marshall Islands and chartered by one of Iraqi companies contracted with SOMO
- Tanker ZEFYROS, flying flag of Malta and carrying condensate produced by Basra Gas Co.
The tankers - whose cargo was naphtha and condensate, both extremely flammable - were attacked while present in loading area.Tanker ZEFYROS was scheduled to head to Khor Al-Zubair Port on March 12 to load additional 30,000 tons shipment of naphtha. This incident negatively affects Iraq’s security and economy and also represents a threat to safety of maritime navigation and oil activities within Iraqi territorial waters, SOMO says. The attack occurred in the waiting area near the Khor Abdullah waterway, approximately 11 miles from the export port caused a fire on the tanker, leading to significant damage to its structure.According to an Iraqi port official speaking to the Reuters news agency, authorities have successfully evacuated 25 crew members from the two ships. Despite these efforts, the fires have remained ablaze on both vessels.One tanker, which was flying a foreign flag, is believed to be American, though its specific nationality has not been confirmed. The attack took place within Iraq’s territorial waters, but no group has claimed responsibility for the incident.It turns out that perhaps the area is not as "safe" as President Trump said it was. And as a reminder, the US Navy already said it was 'too dangerous' to escort tankers through still. As a result of the tanker explosions, Iraq stopped operations at its oil ports. Iraq was one of the first Persian Gulf majors to start reducing oil production after the near-closure of Hormuz, followed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The cuts forced forced the International Energy Agency to act with a co-ordinated release of 400 million barrels — a historic drawdown that is significantly higher than the volume that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Oil prices are surging higher on the news with WTI back above $91 - now up on the week and 20% higher than yesterday's lows...
Oil Prices Surge Despite Record-Breaking Strategic Reserve Release --Oil prices climbed sharply on Wednesday even after the International Energy Agency announced the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in its history, underscoring the scale of supply concerns stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.At the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $93.96, up 7.69%, while Brent crude stood at $91.98, up 4.76% on the day.The price surge came as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified fears of a prolonged supply shock, offsetting any downward pressure from the IEA’s unprecedented reserve release.The IEA said it would release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves held by its member countries in an emergency effort to stabilize global markets shaken by the ongoing conflict involving Iran.The move dwarfs the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and represents the largest intervention since the agency was created after the 1970s oil crises.Member countries collectively hold roughly 1.2 billion barrels of strategic reserves, which can be tapped during supply emergencies. The United States, which holds the largest stockpile among IEA members with about 416 million barrels, indicated it could release up to 4.4 million barrels per day if necessary.Washington later said it would release 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the coordinated effort, adding that it will take "approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates".Despite the record intervention, oil markets remain focused on the escalating disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.Shipping through the strait has slowed dramatically after multiple vessels were struck by projectiles this week. Maritime security firms reported three additional ships hit on Wednesday, bringing the total number of vessels struck since the conflict began to at least 14.While 400 million barrels is a record-breaking release, it equates to only a few days of global oil production, meaning its impact will be limited if the conflict continues.Oil prices have surged more than 25% since the conflict began, with Brent briefly touching a four-year high of $119 per barrel earlier this week before retreating on expectations that emergency stockpiles would be deployed. Iran has warned global markets to prepare for significantly higher prices as tensions continue to escalate, while energy infrastructure disruptions have already begun appearing across the region.While the IEA's record-breaking release should help ease pressure on oil prices slightly, traders will remain focused on when and whether oil can once again flow freely through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan — Oil prices settled up nearly 5% on Wednesday as fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply disruption fears, and analysts said the International Energy Agency's proposal for a record release of oil reserves is inadequate to ease those worries. Brent futures rose $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session up $3.80, or 4.6%, at $87.25 a barrel. Three more vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said on Wednesday. That brought the number of ships struck in the region to at least 14 since the Iran war began. Shipping along the narrow strait has come to a near standstill since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world's oil supply and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022. President Donald Trump has said the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the U.S. Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high for now. The IEA, meanwhile, recommended the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in its history, to try to rein in energy prices, which are now up more than 25% since the war began. The time frame for the release will be decided in due course, the IEA said. The proposed volume is more than double the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but analysts said it was ultimately insufficient to resolve supply losses from a prolonged war in the Middle East. The proposed release is roughly equal to about four days of global production and 16 days of the volume of crude that transits through the Gulf, Macquarie analysts estimated. "If that doesn't sound like much, it isn't," the analysts said in a note. Oil prices also shrugged off a U.S. government report that showed crude oil stockpiles in the top oil-producing country had grown more than expected last week. U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, which include diesel and jet fuel, dropped more than expected, the report showed. Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery in response to a fire at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, according to a source, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the Iran war. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is seen boosting supplies via the Red Sea, although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed. The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to help it boost exports to avert steep production cuts as its neighbors Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already reduced output. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and oil products supply to the market by some 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude prices to $150 per barrel. "Even a quick resolution probably implies weeks of disruption for energy markets yet," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Oil Prices Jump After Tanker Attacks In Iraqi Waters Amid Escalating West Asia War -- Global oil markets moved higher after reports of attacks on fuel tankers in Iraqi waters added another layer of uncertainty to energy supplies already strained by the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. According to a Reuters report, oil prices climbed after Iraqi officials said two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were struck by explosive-laden boats, triggering fires and raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the region. The latest incident comes as West Asia conflict continues to disrupt energy flows and intensify volatility across global oil markets. Benchmark crude prices rose sharply following the reports of tanker attacks. Brent crude futures increased by $5.69, or 6.19 per cent, to $97.67 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $5.11, or 5.86 per cent, to $92.36, in early Asian trading. The gains reflect mounting concerns that the conflict in West Asia could disrupt supply chains in one of the world’s most critical energy-producing regions. Energy traders are closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf, where key export routes and infrastructure remain vulnerable to escalation. The price surge followed confirmation from Iraqi officials that two vessels transporting Iraqi fuel oil had been targeted. Farhan al‑Fartousi, director general of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, told Reuters that two foreign tankers were hit by unidentified attackers while operating in Iraqi territorial waters. The strikes caused both vessels to catch fire. Initial findings from Iraqi security officials suggested that explosive‑laden boats launched from Iran were responsible for the attacks, though investigations were still ongoing. The incident marks one of the most direct threats to maritime oil shipments in the region since the latest phase of the conflict began. The tanker attacks come amid broader geopolitical tensions triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran, which has already disrupted energy flows across West Asia. The region plays a central role in the global oil system, and any threat to shipping routes quickly reverberates through commodity markets. Analysts say that disruptions to tanker movements and oil production facilities could tighten global supply conditions if the conflict continues. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the latest escalation appeared to be a strong response to efforts by international authorities to stabilise oil prices. "This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA's overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices," Sycamore told Reuters. In an effort to contain the surge in oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release a record volume of crude from global strategic reserves. The agency announced plans to release around 400 million barrels of oil to stabilise markets facing supply shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. The United States is contributing the largest portion of the release, providing about 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Reuters. The move is intended to increase supply temporarily and prevent oil prices from spiralling further. However, analysts caution that reserve releases may only offer short‑term relief if geopolitical disruptions continue. A major concern for energy markets remains the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil shipments pass through the narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to international markets. If tensions escalate further and tanker traffic is restricted, the impact on global oil supply could be significant. Amid the growing tensions, US President Donald Trump said Washington was closely watching developments in the region’s strategic shipping routes. Trump said the United States was in "very good shape" in its war on Iran and indicated that the administration was monitoring the straits closely. At the same time, intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact despite the conflict.
Crude Hits $100 as Tanker Attacks Shut Gulf Oil Terminals (DTN) -- Crude prices continued climbing on Thursday, with NYMEX West Texas Intermediate surpassing the $95 bbl mark and ICE Brent trading above $100, after two oil tankers were attacked, forcing the closure of oil terminals in the Persian Gulf as the Iran war escalates. By 8:45 a.m. EDT, WTI crude futures for April delivery were up by $6.07 to $93.32 bbl after a session high at $ 95.97. Brent crude for May delivery advanced by $6.50, or 7%, to $98.48 bbl after peaking at $101.59. Downstream, NYMEX RBOB futures for April delivery rose $0.1086 to $2.8969 gallon. NYMEX ULSD futures for April soared $0.2580 to $3.9368 gallon. The upside in oil prices was partly muted by the announcement on Wednesday, March 11, by the International Energy Agency that the world's largest oil consumers will release a record 400 million bbl from their emergency reserves to mitigate a worsening global supply crisis. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said an additional 172 million bbl will be released from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reports on Thursday said Iraq has halted all operations at its oil ports after fuel spilled into the sea during attacks on two tankers in its territorial waters that killed a sailor. Footage of the vessels engulfed in flames flashed across news channels and social media platforms as Iran reiterated its warning that ships stay off the Strait of Hormuz where some 21 million bpd of petroleum liquids pass. Oman was also reported to have evacuated all vessels from a key oil export terminal as precaution following a wave of attacks on ships in the region. China, meanwhile, issued a ban on exports of all refined fuel through March to prevent a potential domestic fuel shortage. Taken together, the developments showed disruptions from the near two-week long conflict in the Middle East spilling beyond the region as the U.S. and Israeli forces kept up with their bombardment of Iran and Tehran responded by striking at oil facilities, airports and military bases of its neighboring who were U.S. allies. "Once a conflict extends beyond the initial shock phase, oil markets tend to shift from pricing uncertainty to pricing endurance," research house ANZ said in a note. "At that point, the key question is no longer whether supply is disrupted, but how long producers can physically sustain output under deteriorating operating conditions."
Escalating Iran Attacks and Strait of Hormuz Closure Drive Surge in the Oil Market - The crude market on Thursday continued to trade higher as Iran increased its attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, increasing concerns of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Explosive-laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member on Wednesday after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters. The market seems to have dismissed the IEA’s release of oil reserves as it may only be a temporary solution, as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and production shut ins in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a longer term supply issue. The market was further supported by a statement by Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei that Iran will continue to fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, adding that Iran’s neighbors should close all U.S. bases on their territory, which Iran would continue to attack. The oil market posted a low of $88.61 on the opening and never looked back as it continued to retrace Monday’s losses. The market retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $119.48 to a low of $76.73 as it rallied to a high of $97.19 by midday. The market later erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session amid the uncertainty over how long the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to shipping. The April WTI contract settled up $8.48 at $95.73 and the May Brent contract settled up $8.48 at $100.46. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22.01 cents at $3.8989 and the RB market settling up $17.63 cents at $2.9646. The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report that the war in the Middle East is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Global supply is expected to drop by 8 million bpd in March due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israel began a campaign of airstrikes on Iran on February 28th. The IEA said Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million bpd, a volume equal to almost 10% of world demand, as a result of the conflict. It added that without a rapid restart of shipping flows these losses were set to increase.The Trump administration has told U.S. oil companies and shipping groups to prepare for a potential waiver of the century-old Jones Act governing domestic shipping.Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/barrel and $67/barrel, respectively, from $66/barrel and $62/barrel, as it sees longer disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Goldman analysts said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz oil flows at 10% of normal levels, followed by 30 days of gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption. The bank expects Brent to average $98/barrel in March and April before falling to $71/barrel by the fourth quarter of the year. In an upside risk scenario, where flows through the strait are disrupted for a month, Goldman expects the March and April average to jump to $110/barrel before gradually declining to $76/barrel in the fourth quarter.
Brent oil closes at $100 after Iran’s new supreme leader says Strait of Hormuz must remain closed -- Oil prices closed just above $100 per barrel Thursday after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, the latest sign the market may face a prolonged supply disruption. International benchmark Brent crude gained 9.22%, or $8.48, to close at $100.46 per barrel. It was the first time Brent closed above $100 since August 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 9.72%, or $8.48, to settle at $95.73. Mojtaba is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by the U.S. and Israel in the opening strikes of the war. His comments come as attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf continue. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC earlier Thursday that the U.S. Navy is not ready to escort tankers through the Strait yet. U.S. military assets in the region are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities, Wright said. Two oil tankers and a cargo ship were struck off the coasts of Iraq and the United Arab Emirates overnight, authorities said, the latest attacks in or near the strategically crucial Strait. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait, which links the Persian Gulf to global markets. The attacks on shipping came after the International Energy Agency announced its largest emergency release of crude reserves in history. The oil market shrugged off the stockpile release, highlighting traders’ skepticism that the measure can bridge the supply gap triggered by the closure of the Strait. “As we have said repeatedly, the only way to see oil prices trade lower on a sustained basis is by getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz,” strategists at Dutch bank ING said in a research note published Thursday. “Failing to do so means that the market highs are still ahead of us.” The IEA member countries agreed Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. The U.S. announced that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of that effort. The record IEA stock release will add needed volumes to the market, but it will only close up to a quarter of the supply gap tiggered by the closure of the Strait, said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The IEA decision also signals how acute the oil shortage risk is, suggesting the IEA does not believe the war is [likely] to end soon, and stock draws now will need to be replaced later, portending higher prices even after the war ends,” Kavonic told CNBC. One key reason markets remain uneasy is uncertainty about how quickly the barrels will reach the market, said industry veterans. While the IEA’s announcement marked an unprecedented intervention, the agency did not provide details on how fast individual countries will release their reserves or how the oil will be distributed. It will take 120 days for the U.S. to complete the release of its barrels, Energy Secretary Wright said. Strategic stockpiles are held separately by each IEA member country, meaning technical and logistical constraints could slow the flow of barrels. It could take 60 to 90 days before the oil meaningfully reaches the market which is not the immediate relief that traders wanted, said Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James. “Four hundred million is a big number,” Molchanov said. “But this is the largest oil supply disruption since at least the 1970s so we need a lot of oil, and we need it quickly,” he said.
Oil Prices Dip as U.S. Opens Brief Window for Stranded Russian Crude |- Oil prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Friday morning after the United States issued a temporary license allowing countries to purchase Russian crude and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. The move, which promises to provide some temporary relief to global oil markets, helped push Brent crude down 0.38% to $100.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 0.58% to $95.17 per barrel. The 30-day waiver, permitting the purchase of Russian oil cargoes already loaded on tankers but left stranded by sanctions and market disruptions, is designed to ease the supply shock caused by tankers being unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, emphasized that the waiver only applies to shipments already at sea and "will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government". The announcement comes as the United States and its allies attempt to counter the largest oil supply shock in decades caused by escalating hostilities across the Middle East. The U.S. Energy Department said earlier this week it would release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to curb soaring fuel prices following the outbreak of war involving Iran. That effort was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves worldwide to help stabilize markets. The relief provided by stockpile releases was short-lived, however, thanks to growing concerns of prolonged supply disruptions as Iran continued to attack vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Brent closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, and plenty of upside pressure remains. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to continue the fight. He used his first public message as supreme leader to say Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the United States and Israel. While Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE is using its pipeline capacity to help bypass the Strait of Hormuz, there is no long-term solution to replace the barrels that Iran has so far managed to keep off the market. Unless the Strait reopens, and soon, expect prices to continue to climb.
Oil prices stay high despite US temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea — Oil prices traded near their highest level since 2022 Friday, shrugging off the Trump administration’s earlier decision to temporarily allow the delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude – a waiver aimed at mitigating a surge in prices following its attacks on Iran. The license, posted to the US Treasury website, applies only to Russian crude and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12 and authorizes those shipments through April 11. “To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on social media. “This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.” Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.3% to just over $99 a barrel. On Thursday, it settled at $100.46 – the highest settlement level since 2022, when oil prices spiked following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. WTI, the US benchmark, dropped 2% Friday to trade at $93.70 a barrel. Crude oil prices have surged since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is flanked by Iran and is ordinarily the conduit for one-fifth of the world’s oil output. Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, an investment bank, noted that Russia produces around 10 million barrels of oil per day, while the blockage of the strait reduces oil flow by 13-14 million barrels, “without accounting for the closure of oil and gas facilities in the region.” “However, Russia was already exporting to Asian countries,” he wrote in a note, concluding that “it is not obvious” to what extent the easing of US sanctions will improve global oil supply. The US decision to temporarily lift sanctions on oil from Russia, a major exporter, comes despite previous pressure on Russian oil companies as part of a bid to stem the flow of cash funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Global oil supply continues to be under threat. Iran has warned it will set the Middle East’s oil and natural gas “on fire” in retaliation for any attacks on its own energy infrastructure. According to CNN’s reporting, US national security officials significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting risk of a global energy crisis. Now the United States is rushing to contain the economic fallout. At least 16 oil tankers, cargo ships and other vessels have been attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman in the past two weeks, according to the UKMTO, which monitors maritime traffic. Iran has reportedly been laying mines in the strait, and the US military said it had sunk 16 minelayers in the area earlier this week. Nonetheless, in an interview with Fox News, US President Donald Trump suggested oil tanker crews in the Strait of Hormuz should simply “show some guts” and insisted “there’s nothing to be afraid of.” Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and ranking member on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations criticized the latest US decision on Russian oil on social media. “As Putin helps Iran target Americans in the Middle East, @POTUS is now filling the Kremlin’s war coffers. Instead of squeezing Russia’s faltering economy, the President’s ill-planned war is giving Putin a windfall while American families face higher prices,” Shaheen wrote. CNN previously reported that the United States had granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea. Bessent, at the time, said the move was “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market.” As the historic disruption to energy supply persists, countries have scrambled to stem the economic impact by curbing consumption, capping fuel prices and tapping into emergency oil reserves. Analysts, economists and traders have warned that even a rapid end to the war won’t necessarily mean a quick re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Goldman Sachs revised its price forecast 20% higher for Brent crude oil this year, expecting $100 a barrel in March and $85 a barrel in April, assuming a three-week disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. However, if the closure extends to two months, that will push its end-of-year forecast from $71 a barrel to $93 a barrel.
Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure -Crude futures climbed higher on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, but analysts were wary the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started. Brent futures for May settled at $103.14 a barrel, up $2.68, or 2.67 per cent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April finished at $98.71 a barrel, up $2.98, or 3.11 per cent. Prices were down early on Friday on an erroneous report that an Indian-flagged tanker had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since the war began. Once it became clear the tanker sailed from Oman and had not passed through the strait prices began rising, turning positive before midday. Brent rose 11.27 per cent from its finish on March 6 while WTI gained 8 per cent from its value a week ago. As part of efforts to lower fuel prices to consumers in an election year, the U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. This will affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day's worth of global output, according to Russia's presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev. "Russian oil was already going to buyers; this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction," . "The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply." The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices. That plan was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the U.S. contribution. Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, however, was shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel. Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country's oil ports have completely stopped operations. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices, driven higher by the war with Iran. But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said. Both benchmark prices surged more than 9 per cent on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022. Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 a barrel in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the U.S. is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG. In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical waterway.
Oil Up for 4th Week, Brent above $100 on Hormuz Crisis -- Crude prices reversed early losses to settle up for a fourth straight week Friday with Brent returning to above $100 a barrel (bbl) as traders remained focused on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House, meanwhile, raced for solutions to the crisis revolving around the world's busiest shipping lane for petroleum. U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he was considering suspending the Jones Act to allow non-American tankers to transport energy and agricultural products between local ports amid a squeeze in vessel availability caused by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. The effective blockade of Hormuz by Iran sent maritime charter rates soaring and idled hundreds of vessels -- including U.S. registered ones -- that has left huge gaps in the global energy supply chain. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday the temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products for a period of 30 days to ease the energy shortage for global buyers impacted by the war. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev said the move would free up for buyers an estimated 100 million bbl of Russian oil -- roughly a day's worth of global supply -- now trapped at sea by sanctions. Trump also called on oil tanker operators Friday to display more courage in carrying on with business on the strait, which in normal times provides passage to some 21 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum liquids. The U.S. navy reiterated its pledge to shield vessels on the waterway. However, the measures, calls and assurances failed to reassure shippers after repeated attacks by Iran on the waterway in recent days that have caused fires on vessels, fuel spills in the sea and closure of several Persian Gulf ports and facilities that load oil. While Iran itself said it had allowed an Indian tanker on Friday to pass the strait, concerns remained. "The world's oil and gas markets are on a knife's edge, waiting on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz -- once again a centerpiece in Iran's high-stakes game of energy brinksmanship," Phil Flynn, energy analyst for Chicago's Price Futures Group. On Thursday, Turkey intercepted another Iranian missile as its Port of Sohar, a major hub for petrochemicals and liquid logistics in the Middle East. "Iran knows it cannot defeat the U.S. symmetrically; instead, their goal is to trigger a global recession by weaponizing the oil supply chain," said Phil Davis, founder of PSW Investments in Boynton Beach, Florida. U.S. fatalities from the conflict have risen to 11, according to media reports. NYMEX WTI crude futures for April delivery closed up $2.98, or 3%, at $98.71 bbl. ICE Brent crude for May delivery settled up $2.68, or 2.7%, at $103.14 bbl. For the week, WTI rose 7% and Brent 10%, extending advances for a fourth straight week. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for April delivery were up $0.0764 to $3.9753 gallon. NYMEX RBOB futures for April climbed by $0.0566 to $3.0212 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, strengthened by 0.376 points to 100.13, adding to the weight on commodity markets. On the data front, the University of Michigan reported that U.S consumer sentiment has fallen to a 2026 low on concerns over the impact of the Iran war. News that U.S. GDP growth had halved to 0.7% during the fourth quarter from 1.4% in the third quarter had little impact energy markets.
Black Rain Falls on Tehran After US-Israeli Strikes Blow Up Oil Infrastructure - Black smoke filled the skies, and water mixed with oil rained down on the Iranian capital of Tehran on Sunday, following a US-Israeli strike that blew up oil facilities, marking a new escalation of the bombing campaign. The Israeli military said on Saturday that it struck “several fuel storage complexes” around the city, and according to Al Jazeera, a total of four facilities were hit. Iran’s oil distribution company said at least four of its employees were killed in the attacks.Footage from the aftermath of the strikes shows large fireballs and black smoke pouring from the sites that were hit. The lingering black smoke blotted out the sun, confusing Tehran residents who thought it was still night when they woke up.Iranian authorities urged residents to stay inside, warning of the spread of toxic chemicals. The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that “significant quantities of toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur and nitrogen oxides” were released into the air by the US-Israeli strikes.Frederik Pleitgen, a CNN reporter in Tehran, posted several videos showing that oil is raining from the sky. “I want to show you something because the rain that’s coming down seems to be saturated or filled with oil, you can see that it’s completely black. Everything on the ground is black as well,” he said in one video. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that by “targeting fuel depots, the aggressors are releasing hazardous materials and toxic substances into the air, poisoning civilians, devastating the environment, and endangering lives on a massive scale.”
Aramco Asks Asian Buyers for Dual Red Sea-Hormuz Oil Supply Plans - Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco is requesting from Asian buyers to nominate crude loading plans for April for both its key export port in the Gulf and the export alternative on the Red Sea, multiple sources told Reuters on Wednesday.The crisis at the Strait of Hormuz has reverberated through global markets. With the Strait effectively blocked for tanker traffic, Saudi Arabia has diverted part of its crude oil exports from the Ras Tanura export terminal in the Gulf that needs free-flowing traffic through Hormuz to the Yanbu export port on the Red Sea. The loading option at Yanbu applies only to the purchase of Arab Light, Saudi Arabia’s flagship crude grade, according to Reuters’ sources. Saudi Arabia can replace a small portion of the lost export option at the Ras Tanura port with loadings from Yanbu, which bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco uses the East-West pipeline which on paper has the capacity to move about 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude towards the Red Sea. But there’s the question about how much can the terminals at Yanbu load, with some estimates putting this capacity at around 3 million bpd, Vortexa said last week. Between March 1 and 9, immediately after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut for tanker traffic, loadings at Yanbu averaged 2.2 million bpd, doubled compared to the February average, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. From the Strait of Hormuz, Aramco shipped some 6 million bpd before the blockage. Yanbu on the Red Sea cannot offset all the lost shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. That’s why Saudi Arabia and the other top Gulf oil producers have slashed crude oil production in recent days as storage capacity fills up and the crude doesn’t have a way out of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil production by between 2 million bpd and 2.5 million bpd, anonymous sources familiar with the situation told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
Saudis Eye "Large Order" Of Ukrainian Interceptor Drones As Kill-Cost Missile Crisis Deepens -Saudi Arabia is in discussions with a Ukrainian counter-drone firm to acquire low-cost interceptor drones designed to counter inexpensive IRGC kamikaze drones. The cost-exchange ratio remains highly unfavorable for the U.S. and its Gulf partners, who are using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles against $20,000 drones. If the conflict drags on for months, the risk of depleting critical interceptor missile stockpiles will become a major problem, not just in the Gulf area but also on the Ukrainian battlefront. The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing to purchase a "large order" of interceptor drones and electronic warfare equipment from Ukraine. This report is based on sources and has yet to be confirmed. The unfavorable kill-exchange ratio for the Saudis - eliminating a $20,000 IRGC drone with a +$2 million missile - is quickly straining defense budgets and supplies. A cheaper approach is to use Ukrainian interceptors that have been battle-tested in Eastern Europe for several years. Other Gulf countries, including Qatar, are also examining the use of cheap Ukrainian drones. The U.S. has already deployed Ukraine-tested Merops interceptors to U.S. forces in the Gulf region. Last week, a Financial Times report stated that U.S. officials were negotiating a purchase of interceptors to counter IRGC drones. This comes as supplies are dwindling and costs are soaring after nearly 12 days of conflict. "They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of Shaheds cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles. It is too costly," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview last week. Operation Epic Fury has heavily relied on Patriot PAC-3, SM-3 Block IIA, SM-6, and THAAD interceptors, with limited supplies. Lockheed Martin is the top manufacturer of PAC-3 and THAAD missiles, while RTX produces the SM series and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Heads of U.S. defense firms recently met with President Trump at the White House. The CEOs agreed to quadruple bomb production. One Ukrainian defense firm, SkyFall, said its P1-SUN interceptor drone has shot down 1,500 Shahed drones and an additional 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles over the past four months in Eastern Europe. It stated it can produce up to 50,000 interceptor drones per month and export between 5,000 and 10,000 units to the Middle East.
Greek Shipping Billionaire Capitalizing On Tanker Demand Surge, Deploying Five Vessels To Strait Of Hormuz --Greek shipping billionaire George Procopiou quickly moved to capitalize on the surge in tanker demand when war broke out, dispatching at least five vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Chosun Daily. His move was driven by two key calculations: the massive freight rates oil-importing countries would pay to secure transport, and the lucrative fees oil producers offer to store crude at sea when onshore storage fills up. Greek shipowners control the world’s largest fleet of oil tankers. Most are leased to energy companies to transport crude globally, though in tighter markets the vessels can also function as floating storage.To reduce the risk of Iranian attacks while transiting the strait, Procopiou’s ships reportedly switched off their transponders and deployed armed guards on deck. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, however, the tankers would likely sink quickly if struck by a missile or drone. Crews undertaking the voyages are said to be receiving unusually high pay.The report quotes industry sources that said Procopiou’s companies offered charter rates as high as $440,000 per day — roughly four times pre-war levels.Procopiou controls several shipping firms, including Dynacom Tankers Management, Sea Traders (C Traders) and Dynagas. Dynacom alone operates about 70 vessels. Forbes estimates his net worth at around $4.7 billion. Shipping tycoons such as Procopiou wield significant influence in the global oil trade and maintain political connections in Washington.The report also identified a potential beneficiary in Sinokor Merchant Marine. The company recently bought dozens of crude tankers and sent several to the Gulf before the conflict began. Sources said Sinokor leased some vessels to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for offshore storage, earning freight rates of up to $500,000 per day.
Most Ships Transit Strait Of Hormuz Since War Started Led By Iranian, China-Linked Tankers - Yesterday we pointed out that contrary to conventional wisdom of a full Gulf blockade, more ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz... ... with the caveat that most are turning off their transponders not to attract undue attention, whether by Iran or the US. This morning, Bloomberg confirms that while mainstream Western shipping remains largely suspended through the Strait of Hormuz, recent 24-hour observations reveal a jump in Iran-linked traffic, specifically involving two sanctioned (read China-focused) VLCCs. There were eight commercial transits on Tuesday and four more were identified early Wednesday, most of which have ties to Iran or have Chinese commercial links, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Two sanctioned Iranian VLCCs, were seen exiting the Persian Gulf for Asia early Wednesday. Their drafts suggest both supertankers are fully laden, and since they saw no pushback from Iran, are headed toward China. As much as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude has been shipped through the strait since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Tankertrackers.com, a company that specializes in the use of satellite imagery to track vessels. According to Bloomberg, one Iran-affiliated container-ships entered the Persian Gulf on Tuesday and another on Wednesday. In addition, a bulk carrier also entered the Gulf Wednesday signaling ‘China Owner All Chinese.’ This increase in activity comes amid an escalation in hostilities in the region. The cargo ship Mayuree Naree was hit by an unknown projectile, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Another bulk carrier signaling ‘China Owner&Crew’ u-turned away from the strait following the incident, underscoring the heightened security risks. As we reported previously, widespread electronic warfare tactics, including spoofing and signal jamming, have made real-time monitoring of traffic increasingly difficult. With several vessels opting to deactivate AIS transponders in high-risk areas, data accuracy is expected to lag, leading to an eventual upward revision of historical transit numbers. Still, despite the occasional successful crossing, the bulk of the industry’s tonnage remains stuck on either side of the strait until maritime security is restored. Traffic through the channel was effectively halted following several attacks on merchant ships as Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes. Missile and drone activity continues to pose a critical risk to all vessels in the vicinity.
Iran Chooses Ayatollah Khamenei's Son as New Leader – Iranian media reported on Sunday that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28, has been selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as the new supreme leader of the country.The younger Khamenei is 56 years old and is said to have close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He is taking power following the killing of not only his father, but also his wife, mother, and sister, in an Israeli airstrike in one of the opening attacks of the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic.After his appointment, the IRGC pledged its “sincere and life-long allegiance” to Khamenei and emphasized that it will “listen to orders and be ready to implement” them. The IRGC added that his election “proved to everyone that the movement of the Islamic system does not stop, and the revolution and the Islamic system do not depend on individuals.”The choosing of Khamenei is seen as a defiant move in the face of US pressure, as President Trump has said he would not be an acceptable replacement for his father. Trump has said he must have a say in who Iran’s next leader is and has demanded the Islamic Republic’s “unconditional surrender,” signs that the war will not end anytime soon.Iranian officials have also maintained that they do not seek a ceasefire and are ready to continue fighting the US. The killing of the senior Khamenei hasn’t stopped the Iranian military response, and there’s been no sign that the government is close to collapsing or that any kind of uprising will start inside the country.
Counting the Dead: Civilian Toll Mounts in Iran and Lebanon - Palestine Chronicle - As of Monday, March 9, Iranian officials say the death toll from the ongoing US-Israeli assault has reached 1,255, with more than 12,000 people wounded, making Iran the deadliest front in the regional war so far. The figure was given by Iranian Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian, who said most of those killed and wounded were civilians. According to Jafarian, those killed include 200 children and 11 healthcare workers, with victims ranging in age from eight months to 88 years old. He said many of those struck were in their homes or at work, underscoring the extent to which civilian areas have borne the brunt of the bombardment. Iranian official and semi-official reporting has also highlighted the scale of physical destruction across the country. Press TV, citing Iran’s Health Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and Red Crescent reporting, said strikes have hit residential districts, schools, hospitals, emergency facilities, markets, and other non-military sites across several cities, especially Tehran. The damage reported by Iranian authorities goes well beyond casualty figures. Jafarian said 29 clinical facilities have been damaged, 10 of them forced to shut down. He added that 52 health centres, 18 emergency service locations, and 15 ambulances have also been damaged or destroyed. Press TV’s March 8 fact sheet, based on Iranian official reporting, said the Red Crescent had documented thousands of strikes on non-military property, including 3,646 residential and non-military units hit and 528 commercial units completely destroyed. The Iranian news network also said 11 hospitals were affected by missile strikes, three hospitals were rendered fully non-operational, and eight emergency medical bases were damaged. Iranian reporting also points to repeated attacks on schools and children’s facilities. Press TV, citing official sources, said schools in Tehran suffered severe damage and listed strikes on educational facilities, including an elementary school in Minab and a kindergarten in Narmak. The same compilation said medical sites hit included Gandhi Hospital, Khatam al-Anbiya Hospital, Motahari Hospital, the Tehran Trauma and Burn Center, and Ameneh Neonatal Care Center. A major new line of destruction emerged after Israeli attacks hit oil infrastructure. Jafarian told Al-Jazeera that the bombardment of oil facilities spread toxic smoke over Tehran and warned of respiratory and environmental risks. The report said strikes hit the Aghdasieh oil warehouse, the Tehran refinery, and the Shahran oil depot, triggering large fires and darkening the capital’s sky. After Iran, Lebanon remains the other major civilian front in the war. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry’s Health Emergency Operations Center, Israeli attacks since March 2 have now killed 486 people and wounded 1,313. Anadolu reported the updated toll on Monday evening, citing the ministry directly. The official Lebanese toll had already risen sharply by Sunday. Reuters, citing Lebanon’s Health Ministry, reported that the dead included at least 83 children and 42 women, underscoring the civilian cost of the widening Israeli assault. The same report said Israeli bombardment has sent smoke columns over Beirut’s southern suburbs and southern Lebanon as the war entered a second week. It also noted that strikes hit branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan in the southern suburbs, while the Israeli military had expanded evacuation orders across south Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs. While Monday’s latest official death toll stands at 486, the pattern of destruction in Lebanon is also becoming clearer. Reuters reported that Israeli strikes have hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, including Dahiya, and large areas of southern Lebanon, while many families have fled under broad evacuation orders. Lebanese and regional reporting on March 9 also pointed to fresh strikes on Al-Qard Al-Hassan branches in Dahiya and additional casualties in southern Lebanon, as attacks continued to spread between Beirut and the south. Naharnet reported that the Health Ministry recorded casualties from those Monday strikes as well. As of March 9, the latest official counts from Tehran and Beirut indicate a widening regional war with a mounting humanitarian cost.
Iranian Strike on Bahrain Refinery Triggers Force Majeure, Oil Surges above $115 - Palestine Chronicle - The US-Israeli aggression on Iran has expanded into the Gulf energy sector after a strike targeted Bahrain’s refinery complex. According to the Anadolu news agency, Bahraini authorities confirmed that “a fire erupted after an Iranian attack on the Ma’ameer area.” The Ma’ameer industrial zone hosts the Bapco refinery, one of Bahrain’s most important energy facilities. Emergency crews responded quickly to the blaze, and officials said the fire was brought under control. However, the attack had broader implications for the country’s energy sector. Anadolu reported that Bapco Energies declared force majeure after Iranian strikes affected facilities in the country. Officials said the measure was necessary because of the disruption caused by the attack. Force majeure allows companies to suspend contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances such as war or infrastructure damage. The refinery strike illustrates how the expanding conflict is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s most critical oil facilities and shipping routes. Attacks on these installations can quickly reverberate across global markets. At the same time, the conflict has also targeted energy assets inside Iran. According to Anadolu, US officials have expressed concern over Israeli attacks on Iranian fuel depots. Citing American officials, the outlet reported that the US is “concerned over Israeli strikes on Iranian fuel depots”. Analysts say such attacks risk escalating the conflict further while also destabilizing global energy markets.
Iran Warns No Oil Will Leave the Middle East Until U.S. and Israeli Attacks Stop -- Iran has warned that “not a litre” of oil will be exported from the Middle East until the United States and Israel stop bombing it. The warning comes on the heels of statements made by President Trump that the war would be over “very soon”, which toppled oil prices from peaks reached on Monday.“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement today, as reported by Reuters.The threat followed remarks made by President Trump that included threats for the attacks to actually intensify if Iran continued to prevent oil from leaving the Middle East.“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” the U.S. president said on TruthSocial.“Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!” Trump also wrote on his social network, adding that this was a gift from the U.S. to China and all other oil importers that bought Middle Eastern oil.The situation appears to be of the stalemate sort right now, which suggests the recent reversal of the oil rally may end, after traders rushed to sell on Monday, following Trump’s remark about the war ending “very soon”. The selloff pushed Brent crude and WTI below $100. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, prices will likely start climbing again although more slowly, if Trump goes ahead with the sanction-lifting on “some countries”.
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Oman’s Largest Oil Storage Facility - Iranian drones struck oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah in Oman on Wednesday, marking the latest attack on Gulf energy infrastructure as the regional war expands into a full-scale confrontation over global oil supply.Fuel storage tanks at the port were hit in the strike, according to maritime security firm Ambrey and Omani state media, though no merchant vessels in the area were damaged. OSINT account Visioner shared video footage of the oil storage facilities after the attack:The attack is the newest incident in a widening campaign targeting energy logistics and oil infrastructure across the Middle East during the ongoing 2026 war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Salalah, located on Oman’s southern coast along the Arabian Sea, has become an increasingly important hub for tankers seeking to bypass the increasingly dangerous Strait of Hormuz. The strike raises fresh concerns that Iran is expanding the conflict beyond the Gulf chokepoint and into alternative export routes used by oil producers and shipping companies.The strike follows several similar incidents targeting oil and gas facilities across the region since the conflict began in late February. Earlier this month, drones hit a fuel storage tank at the Port of Duqm in Oman, another strategic energy hub located outside the Strait of Hormuz.Iran-linked strikes have also targeted Saudi Arabia’s massive Ras Tanura oil refinery, briefly forcing operations to halt after drone debris sparked a fire at the facility. Iran also targeted vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency.The Thai-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree was fired upon after “disregarding warnings and insistently attempting to illegally pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” the IRGC said. Another vessel, the Liberian-flagged Express Rome, was also struck by Iranian projectiles after ignoring warnings from Iranian naval forces, according to the statement.Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic showed that both vessels had been operating in the Strait earlier in the day.According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least 13 vessels have been attacked across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman since hostilities began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory response. Three of those incidents occurred on Wednesday alone.Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters warned that Iran “will never allow even a single liter of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the United States, the Zionists, or their partners.”
Iran Warns Gulf Energy Assets Could Burn if Its Oil Facilities Are Targeted -- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Thursday that it could ignite a wider energy crisis across the Middle East if Iran’s own oil and gas infrastructure comes under attack. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said any strike on Iran’s energy facilities or ports would trigger a “crushing and devastating response.” The force warned that, in such a scenario, oil and gas infrastructure across the region linked to the United States and its Western allies would be “set on fire and destroyed.” The warning comes as tensions in the Gulf intensify amid an expanding conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel. Iranian forces have targeted international cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones, disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy shipping lanes. Meanwhile, Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani issued a direct warning to US President Donald Trump, accusing him of making a “grave miscalculation” by initiating the war. In a post on X, Larijani said Iran would continue its military actions until the US president regretted the decision. “Starting a war is easy, but it cannot be won with a few tweets,” Larijani wrote. “We will not relent until making you sorry for this grave miscalculation,” adding the hashtag #TrumpMustPay. According to US Central Command, American forces have struck more than 5,500 targets inside Iran since the start of the conflict, including more than 60 vessels. The escalating confrontation is raising fears of a broader regional war that could threaten energy infrastructure across the Gulf and disrupt global oil supplies.
Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 per Barrel as Hormuz Threat Escalates- Oil markets are bracing for an even bigger potential price shock with Iran on Wednesday warning that crude could surge to $200 per barrel if the war involving the U.S. and Israel continues to destabilize the Middle East’s energy corridors.Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, warned the world to “get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel,” arguing that regional security has been destabilized by the ongoing bombing campaign against Iran. The $200 oil price tag warning follows a major Iranian drone strike on Wednesday on Oman’s largest oil storage facility. Tehran also warned that no oil shipments will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz until the attacks stop, placing the world’s most critical oil chokepoint at the center of the escalating conflict. The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally handles roughly 20% of global oil supply and a large share of LNG trade, making any sustained disruption a major threat to global energy markets. Oil prices have already reacted violently to the growing risk. Brent crude briefly surged to around $120 per barrel earlier this week before retreating toward the $90 range after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the conflict might end soon. Renewed attacks on shipping and infrastructure, however, have quickly revived fears of supply disruptions.Security incidents across the Persian Gulf are continuing to mount. Maritime authorities and ship-tracking firms report a growing number of attacks on commercial vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, with several ships struck in the latest round of incidents. Tanker movements through the region have already begun slowing as insurers and ship operators reassess the risks of transiting the corridor.Energy analysts say the conflict is increasingly evolving into a direct confrontation over the Middle East’s oil supply network, with strikes now targeting ports, storage terminals, commercial shipping and export routes across the region.
Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz Means It's Exporting More Oil Than Before the War - Iran has been exporting more oil over the past week than it was before the US and Israel launched the war against the Islamic Republic on February 28, The Wall Street Journal has reported.The report cited data from Kpler, a tanker-tracking firm, which found that since February 28, seven tankers have been loaded off the coast of Iran, and at least two have already left the Persian Gulf. Kpler’s data show that over the past six days, tankers have loaded an average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, higher than the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported in February.The report comes as President Trump has been issuing repeated threats against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as his administration is scrambling to deal with the impact his war is having on the global oil market. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained that the strait is only open to ships that have its permission to cross, which includes Chinese vessels, as China is a major buyer of Iranian oil.“The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed until further notice,” Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Jabari, a senior advisor to the commander of the IRGC, said earlier this week. “Passage occurs only with our permission. Allied ships, such as those from Russia, China, and select partner nations, may transit. Enemy-associated vessels are not allowed to pass, and not a single drop of oil or cubic metre of gas will be permitted through this corridor.”On Wednesday, three vessels off the coast of Iran were reportedly struck by projectiles, as the IRGC has warned that any ship attempting to cross the strait without permission will be hit. Photos show that a Thai bulk carrier, the Mayuree Naree, was among the vessels struck.According to the Royal Thai Navy, the Mayuree Naree was hit while transiting the Strait of Hormuz after leaving the Khalifa Port in the UAE. It said at least 20 crew members from the ship had been rescued so far.
In First Statement, Iran's New Leader Says Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed and Attacks on US Bases Will Continue - Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his slain father as the new supreme leader of Iran, issued his first statement on Thursday, where he said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and vowed Iranian attacks on US bases in the region would continue. “Certainly, the leverage of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used,” Khamenei said in his message, which was issued as a written statement and read on Iranian TV. He suggested that Iran could open “other fronts” in the war and vowed there would be revenge for Iranians who have been killed, including more than 100 girls and boys who were killed by a US strike on an elementary school in the opening hours of the war. “The retaliation we have in mind is not only related to the martyrdom of the great leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation who is killed by the enemy becomes a separate case in the file of retaliation,” Khamenei said. “Of course, a limited portion of this retaliation has already taken concrete form, but until it is fully realized, this file will remain open above the others. We will be especially sensitive regarding the blood of our children. Therefore, the crime the enemy deliberately committed against the Shajareh-Tayyebeh school in Minab, and certain similar cases, holds a particular place in this process of accountability,” he added. The Iranian leader addressed regional countries, saying that Iran wants good relations with its neighbors but would continue targeting US bases as long as they remain. “From now on, we will again be compelled to continue doing this if necessary, although we still believe in the importance of maintaining friendly relations with those neighboring countries,” he said.
Trump says U.S. ‘obliterated’ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island but didn’t ‘wipe out’ oil infrastructure -- President Donald Trump said on Friday that he directed the U.S. Central Command to carry out a bombing raid, hitting military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island. “Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” the president wrote in a Truth Social post.He added that he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island.”Kharg Island is a small strip of land in the northern Persian Gulf. It’s widely considered one of Iran’s most sensitive economic targets.The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran. Analysts have said that the prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran’s “oil lifeline,” is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.
Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal -- President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to order the destruction of Iran's main oil loading facility on Kharg island to force Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz. Trump said in a social media post that the US military "totally obliterated every MILITARY target" on Kharg but "for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island." Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision," Trump posted. "Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it!" Trump's statement — as other US official statements — fall short of explicitly acknowledging that Iran has effectively enforced a near halt on oil and LNG shipments from the Mideast Gulf through Hormuz since the US-Israel attacks began on 28 February. The Kharg terminal is in fact the only oil loading terminal in the Mideast Gulf from which some tankers continued to sail through Hormuz, most recently on 10 March. About 25pc of globally traded crude volumes and 20pc of LNG supply is unable to leave the Mideast Gulf. Trump in remarks to reporters on Friday evening said again that the US naval escorts for commercial ships transiting Hormuz will begin "very soon". But senior US military officials on Friday declined to provide a timeline for reopening the strait of Hormuz or explain how the Pentagon will accomplish the task. It remains unclear if and how Tehran will respond to Trump's threat. The extent of destruction at Kharg following the US raid cannot be independently verified. Iran's military has targeted some production facilities and oil fields across the Mideast Gulf, but Tehran so far has directed most attacks at ports and ships across the Mideast Gulf. The Trump administration is under pressure to respond to higher oil prices as a result of the war. April Nymex WTI rose by $2.98/bl to $98.71/bl on Friday, its highest level in more than three years.
Iran threatens to attack UAE cities after US strikes on Kharg Island -Iran’s military on Saturday threatened to attack multiple cities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that it claims the U.S. used in its attack on Kharg Island, a vital economic outpost.The claim made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters was that the U.S. launched its attack from “ports, docks and hideouts within” UAE cities. They did not specify which cities they would strike.“[The IRGC] considers it its legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by hitting and targeting the origin of the American enemy missiles in shipping ports, docks, and hideouts of American soldiers sheltered in some cities in the UAE,” the IRGC said in a statement on Iranian state media, per Al Jazeera. President Trump on Friday said the U.S. “obliterated” every military target on Kharg Island without destroying the island’s oil infrastructure for “reasons of decency.” He added that the strikes on the island were “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East.”“However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.The attack came one day after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered the strait remain closed. The Strait of Hormuz acts as the waterway for around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gasoline exports. The closure, a result of the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, has led to a surge in gas and oil prices.
Pentagon Moves More Troops, Warships to the Middle East - Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has approved a request from CENTCOM (U.S Central Command) to send additional Marines and warships to the Middle East, according to three U.S officials. CENTCOM, which is responsible for all U.S forces in the Middle East, requested an amphibious ready group and an attached Marine expeditionary unit, which generally consists of several warships and 5,000 Marines.The request comes as Iran escalated its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, including allegedly mining the Strait, which is a key waterway in the global economy. As a result, global trade has been disrupted, oil prices have risen and the situation has presented itself as a major political challenge for President Trump.The Marine detachment, along with the Japan-based USS Tripoli, will be joining Marine forces currently present in the region in supporting the Iran operation, according to the officials. Despite the buildup, Hegseth dismissed Iran’s attacks on the Strait as “pure desperation” and responded to reporters asking about the safety of passing through the Strait that they “don’t need to worry about it” and that it’s “something we are dealing with.”The 5,000 Marines will join 40,000 to 50,000 American soldiers already in the Middle East. Those soldiers are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. So far, at least 14 American soldiers have been killed since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran two weeks ago.On Tuesday, Reuters reported speaking with US officials who said over 150 American troops have been wounded during the war, including several serious injuries.While the role of the Marine expeditionary unit is unclear, the White House has floated drastically escalating the conflict by attempting to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The President has also refused to rule out placing boots on the ground in Iran.
Thirty PMF Fighters Killed by US Airstrikes in Iraq - Nearly 30 members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were killed by what were likely US airstrikes in Iraq on Thursday, Rudaw has reported, as Iraq has become a major battlefield in the US-Israeli war against Iran.Unnamed Iraqi security officials told AFP that one of the strikes targeted a PMF base near the Iraq-Syria border housing Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, a militia that’s part of the PMF and is under US sanctions. The PMF is a coalition of mostly Shia armed groups formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and is a branch of Iraq’s official security forces.The security officials suggested the attack was a double-tap strike. “The base was destroyed, and the rescue teams who arrived at the site were also targeted,” one official said.The PMF said the US was responsible for the strike and said the base hasn’t been used for recent attacks against US assets in Iraq. The US has launched multiple rounds of airstrikes in Iraq since the war started on February 28, and US bases and facilities have been targeted by drone attacks.In its statement on the US strikes, the PMF said that “all fighters killed were carrying out their official duties, and some were stationed near the borders,” and called the PMF an “essential part of Iraq’s security apparatus.” Four PMF fighters were also killed by suspected US airstrikes on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), another more shadowy coalition of Shia groups that includes some of the militias in the PMF, claimed that its fighters carried out “31 operations using dozens of drones and missiles against the occupation bases in Iraq and the region” over 24 hours. According to the US State Department, Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya is part of the IRI. A drone swarm hit a British military base in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, on Wednesday night, and according to British media, US troops were injured in the attack.
Hezbollah Launches Long-Range Strike on Israeli Communications Facility - Palestine Chronicle - The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah announced Monday evening that it had targeted a strategic Israeli communications facility in central occupied Palestine. Hezbollah said it struck the satellite communications station of the Israeli Communications and Cyber Defense Division in the Valley of Elah with a salvo of precision missiles. According to the group, the site lies about 160 kilometers from the Lebanese border. Hezbollah said the operation was carried out “in response to the criminal Israeli aggression that struck dozens of Lebanese cities and towns, including the southern suburbs of Beirut.” Israeli media reported that two sensitive sites were hit during the attack, prompting a military censorship order due to the security significance of the locations. Reports also indicated that a strategic facility near Beit Shemesh, west of occupied Jerusalem, was struck. According to reporting cited by the Iranian news agency Tasnim, the targeted site was the SES Satellite Station, also known as the Emek HaEla Teleport. The facility is described as one of the major ground stations in Israel’s satellite communications infrastructure. Tasnim said the site receives data from military and intelligence satellites such as Amos and Dror, which are then transmitted through Bezek’s fiber-optic network to Israeli military command and control centers. The agency described the station as the “beating heart” of Israeli ground satellite communications systems. Image analysis of the site reportedly showed numerous satellite receivers used to process satellite transmissions. Tasnim said the attack could trigger “a wide wave of disruptions” in Israeli communications networks. Some intelligence sources cited in the report said the strike followed long-term surveillance and intelligence gathering on the facility. Separate reporting indicated that Hezbollah launched heavy long-range missiles toward central Israel, marking the first such strike during the current escalation. According to Al-Jazeera, missiles struck Beit Shemesh and Lod, south of Tel Aviv. The report said that the missiles traveled approximately 200 kilometers from the Lebanese border. He added that Israeli defenses were unable to detect the missiles or activate sirens until the last moments. Analysts cited by Al-Jazeera also said the use of heavy long-range missiles suggests Hezbollah has decided to escalate the confrontation. According to the report, the group possesses missiles such as Fadi-3, Qader-1, Qader-2, and Nasser-2, which have a range of roughly 190 kilometers and carry warheads weighing around 500 kilograms. Israel’s Channel 15 also reported that security officials believe Hezbollah used a precise long-range surface-to-surface missile in the latest attack.
Israeli Strikes Kill 394 in Lebanon in One Week, Including 83 Children - As Israeli attacks continue to escalate, the death toll of their current war on Lebanon has been soaring, with the Lebanese Health Ministry reporting today that 394 people have been killed since Monday, including at least 83 children.Among the latest strikes was an incident in central Beirut overnight Sunday, in which Israeli warplanes attacked a hotel housing a large number of displaced civilians fleeing the war. That and other overnight strikes left at least 15 people dead and 15 wounded.The hotel was in the normally touristy part of Beirut around Raouche, and because of the extra space it was a place a lot of people were fleeing to. The strike killed at least four people and wounded 10 others. It’s the second attack on a Beirut hotel this week, with the previous attack targeting the Comfort Hotel in the Christian majority suburbs of the city, killing 11.One of the deadliest strikes was in the southern village of Sir al-Gharbiyeh, an area just north of the Litani River. Since Israel has ordered everyone out of the area south of the river, the mayor of the village reported hundreds of families have fled there. The strike killed one such family, leveling a small house they were staying in and killing all within.Israeli officials reiterated the order for everyone to withdraw from the area south of the Litani River, though clearly this strike and others underscore that Israel doesn’t view the river as any functional boundary and are just as comfortable attacking civilians who have fled, as instructed, to the other side of the river. Israeli troops suffered their first fatalities inside Lebanon Sunday as well, with troops crossing onto the Lebanese side of the border near the kibbutz of Manara. The armored personnel carrier got stuck after crossing the border, and the IDF sent military bulldozers to dig it out. Hezbollah hit one of the bulldozers with a rocket, starting a fire that left two Israeli soldiers dead and one wounded.
US-Israeli Strikes in Iran Damage More Than 20,000 'Civilian Units': Iranian Red Crescent - -- The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCR) said on Thursday that US-Israeli strikes have damaged more than 20,000 “civilian units” since the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28. The group, whose rescue workers are responding to strikes across the country, said that the figure includes 17,353 residential units, 4,122 commercial units, and educational facilities.The bombing campaign has inflicted a large number of civilian casualties, as the Human Rights Activists News Agency, or HRANA, a US-based NGO that’s very critical of the Iranian government, said on Thursday night that it has confirmed the killing of 1,286 civilians, including 200 children. The group also said that it has confirmed 199 military deaths and that another 373 have yet to be classified as civilian or military.Over the previous 24 hours, HRANA said 10 civilians, including three women, were killed, and another 91 were injured. In that time, it recorded attacks on several civilian targets, including a tourist camp, a government building, a residential unit, a residential neighborhood, and a hospital. HRANA also recorded attacks on several military sites, including bases, warehouses, and production sites.The Financial Times reported that the heavy strikes on civilian targets have caused Iranians who initially supported the idea of regime change to rethink their position. “We weren’t supposed to be bombed,” said a Tehran resident who experienced strikes near her apartment. “Our city, our country, this wasn’t supposed to happen. How is it that Venezuela … saw clean, bloodless regime change, but not here?”The single worst incident of civilian harm was the bombing of an elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, in the opening hours of the US-Israeli attacks. About 175 people were killed, the vast majority being schoolgirls and schoolboys. A preliminary Pentagon investigation has found that the US was responsible for the strike.
‘Of Course’: IDF Drops Case Against Soldiers Accused of Raping Palestinian Prisoner - Antiwar. -The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday dismissed the indictments of five soldiers accused of raping a Palestinian prisoner at the notorious Sde Teiman prison in July 2024 – an attack that sparked worldwide outrage.The IDF spokesperson’s office said the decision to drop the indictments of five reserve members of Force 100 – a special unit of the military police responsible for guarding and controlling high-risk detainees – “was made following an examination of all the considerations, evidence, and relevant circumstances.”“Among the factors taken into account were the complexity of the evidentiary basis in the case and the implications of the release of the security detainee to the Gaza Strip, which created significant consequences for the evidentiary aspect of the case,” the office added. “These developments created exceptional circumstances that affect the ability to continue the criminal proceedings while preserving the right of the defendants to a fair trial.”The dismissal of the indictments, according to The Jerusalem Post, does not mean the soldiers have been exonerated.The five soldiers were caught on video assaulting a Palestinian prisoner at Sde Teiman on July 5, 2024. Although they used riot shields in a bid to conceal the nearly 15-minute attack, medical reports cited in the case show the victim suffered serious rectal injuries requiring surgery, a ruptured bowel, punctured lung, and fractured ribs. An Israeli medical staffer said that the victim arrived at the hospital in critical condition.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza – welcomed the dismissal of the indictments, which he said had “damaged Israel’s reputation in the world in an unprecedented manner.”Israeli President Israel Katz raised eyebrows by asserting that “the role of the IDF’s legal system is to protect and safeguard IDF soldiers who engage heroically in war against cruel monsters, and not the rights of the terrorists of Hamas.”
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