The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates - If the Federal Reserve still has any reasons to cut interest rates in the near future, they’re getting harder and harder to find.Friday’s jobs report for April provided the latest evidence that the central bank’s larger concern isn’t a flagging labor market but rather a cost of living that is getting increasingly harder for ordinary Americans to bear.The nonfarm payrolls increase of 115,000 last month is hardly gangbusters, but is another sign that the jobs picture has stabilized at least enough to reduce the pressure for rate cuts.By comparison, there is scant evidence to say the same for inflation, likely pushing the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee into a more hawkish posture where officials are comfortable staying where they are for a prolonged period. “The Fed will shift its focus to containing upside inflation risks now that the labor market appears back on track,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multisector fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “The FOMC could well feel compelled to remove the easing bias from its next post-meeting statement in June, which would suggest the hawks are gaining the upper hand on the committee for the time being.”In Fed terms, that means that a swell of cautious sentiment from multiple regional presidents could take further hold.At last week’s FOMC meeting, three of those presidents voted against the post-meeting statement. The group did not object to the committee’s decision to hold rates steady but rather to “forward guidance” language widely interpreted as signaling the next move would more likely be a cut. “I have never been that big of a fan of trying to use words to jawbone policy decisions,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said Friday in a CNBC interview. Moreover, he said he is concerned about current inflation trends.“We’ve been above the 2% fed target for five years now. We stopped making progress last year, and now the last three months, it’s going up instead of down,” added Goolsbee, who does not get a vote this year on the committee but will in 2027. “We’ve got to just keep an eye on this, because if everybody starts presuming that inflation rates are going back to something like what they were a few years ago, we would be in a in a bit of a pickle as a central bank.”Goolsbee further argued that inflation pressure is coming from more than just gasoline and tariffs, and is increasingly showing up in services costs. The consumer price index for March pointed to an inflation rate of 3.3%, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.The traditional approach to higher inflation and a steady labor market normally would argue against cuts.Recent data trends could lend credence to the argument that the Fed can continue holding rates where they are while also keeping its options open, including raising rates.“This makes it more and more clear that the Fed [can have] all the patience in the world,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “There’s nothing on the economic front that’s requiring them to lower interest rates any further.”While market sentiment can shift rapidly, traders have removed any probability of a rate cut essentially through April 2031, according to fed funds futures pricing. In fact, the rate curve implies a much stronger chance of hikes in coming years.“Obviously it makes the Fed’s decision easier,” Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz, said of the recent data. “This just makes the decision that much easier to hold, and maybe in the next year, start leaning the bias the other way.”If that’s the case, though, it makes things problematic for incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, who President Donald Trump sent to the Fed with expectations for lower rates.The former Fed governor has been open about his preference for a lower funds rate, arguing that the Fed still can control inflation while easing policy. Warsh has advocated for an approach that focuses more on the central bank’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet rather than the overnight funds rate currently used as the main policy tool.However, selling a rate cut with inflation north of 3% will be a difficult job, particularly considering the leanings of the current committee structure.“He has really got his hands full on this. Certainly he was chosen by Trump because he is probably leaning towards lower interest rates,” North at Allianz said. “Warsh comes in, saying, ‘Gosh, I think it’d be great if we had a family fight once in a while.’ Well, I don’t think this was the fight he was expecting.
Fed flags overheated markets as top stability risk -The Federal Reserve on Friday flagged elevated asset prices and continued investor optimism as risks to financial stability.
- Key takeaway: The Federal Reserve said market froth remains the leading risk to financial stability, consistent with its assessment in November.
- Expert quote: "Treasury market liquidity initially deteriorated in line with this heightened volatility, demonstrating the vulnerability of market liquidity during periods of acute stress." —Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report.
- What's at stake: The report comes as the economy faces turbulence with the Iran war driving up energy prices and raising potential implications for inflation depending on how long the conflict lasts.
The Federal Reserve's April financial stability report found that asset valuations remain elevated, even as investors are beginning to demand more compensation for risk amid rising uncertainty around monetary policy.
Fed's Barr says gas prices could 'bleed' into inflation -Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said Tuesday that energy costs were already rising before the Iran war, driven by "insatiable demand" for electricity from artificial intelligence and aging infrastructure. But how much higher prices go will depend on how long the war with Iran lasts, he said.
- Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said rising energy costs — already rising in part due to increased electricity demand from data centers — could be made worse by the Iran war, but how much worse depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- Expert quote: "The most immediate effect is a significant increase in prices, particularly for gas at the pump. Consumers are feeling that a lot and it could bleed over into other prices." — Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr.
- What's ahead: The Iran war is already complicating the central bank's longstanding effort to bring inflation down to its 2% target range.
Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said Tuesday that the U.S. energy sector is more insulated from shocks than Europe's, particularly in natural gas prices. However, he warned that the war is pushing up gasoline prices, which could spill over into other parts of the economy.
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats - By Wolf Richter - Treasury yields from 2 years to 30 years spiked today – along with crude oil prices and inflation fears – after Iranian attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates, commercial ships, and US Navy ships. Treasury yields are like a loaded spring amid escalating inflation fears. Rising yields means falling prices for existing bondholders. The 30-year Treasury yield jumped by 6 basis points at the moment to 5.03%, the highest since May 2025, and is now 139 basis points above the Federal Funds Rate of 3.64% (EFFR, blue line), which the Fed targets with its policy rates, as the bond market is now pricing in significantly higher inflation rates over the life of the bond than the Fed’s 2% target. A dovish Fed – a Fed that threatens to “look through” surging inflation because it’s just an energy price spike or whatever – spooks the long end of the bond market. The more the Fed cuts, the higher the 30-year yield? Which raises the question: how many rate cuts would it take in this environment to drive the 30-year yield to 6%? But historically, 5% is not a high 30-year yield: between October 1979 and October 1985, the 30-year Treasury yield was over 10% and topped out at just over 15% in September 1981. It didn’t drop consistently below 5% until the Financial Crisis in late 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 7 basis points at the moment, to 4.45%, the highest since the top of the spike in July last year. Since end of February, the 10-year yield has surged by 50 basis points. It is now 82 basis points above the EFFR. The 3-year Treasury yield spiked by 9 basis points to 4.0%, same as the top of the spike at the end of March, and both the highest since June 2025, and both 36 basis points above the EFFR, a strong signal that the bond market is expecting rate hikes over the next couple of years, not rate cuts. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked by 8 basis points at the moment to 3.98%, the highest since June last year. It is now 34 basis points above the EFFR of 3.64%, the most since early 2023 just before the SVB collapse, after having been below the EFFR for nearly the entire time since the SVB collapse on rate cut expectations. This recent surge above the EFFR is a sign that this part of the bond market is now pricing in rate hikes, instead of rate cuts. And this expectation of rate hikes is also why the 30-year yield hasn’t yet surged toward 6%. Overall inflation rates already spiked in March due to the energy price spike. It remains up for debate to what extent exactly the energy price spike will also fuel, sorry, even higher “core” inflation, which excludes energy and food products that consumers pay for directly. The Fed favored “core” PCE price index has been rising for months and in March reached 3.2% year-over-year, with the 6-month average at 3.7% annualized. But even this core measure will trend higher as higher energy prices start filtering non-energy goods and services – part of which has already started with airline fares. The longer end of the bond market is on edge about this inflation scenario and the risk that it could spread over many years as the Fed remains unwilling to really crack down on inflation and keeps looking for excuses – such as “looking through” the energy price spike, and perhaps under the Warsh-Fed, expecting that efficiency gains from AI will somehow solve the inflation problem. And the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which roughly tracks the 10-year Treasury yield but is higher, jumped by 8 basis points this morning, to 6.52%, according to the daily measure by Mortgage News Daily.
Hegseth Calls Inflating the Pentagon Budget by 50% to $1.5 Trillion a 'Fiscally Responsible Investment' - Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a post on X on Thursday that inflating the Pentagon budget by nearly 50% to $1.5 trillion for 2027 was a “fiscally responsible investment” as the Trump administration attempts to justify its record-shattering military budget request.“Thanks to President Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, this War Department has moved from bureaucracy to business,” Hegseth wrote. “This is a FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT in our Arsenal of Freedom—ensuring our military remains the most lethal fighting force in the world.”The post included an animated video featuring Hegseth, where he claimed that the Trump administration was “putting the American taxpayer first” and taking action against bureaucracy.Hegseth said that the administration insisted that when weapons makers expand their factories to sell more equipment to the US military, they pay the expenses, rather than have them funded by US taxpayers. The video didn’t explain why something that would seemingly reduce US military spending would necessitate increasing the budget by $500 billion.“In exchange, we’re giving these companies steady, long-term orders for exactly what our warriors need. And defense companies are making things in higher volumes, much more quickly, while keeping their prices flat. Should these companies fail to deliver, we will hold them accountable and bring in new companies who will,” the US war chief said.
Trump Says US Acting 'Like Pirates' Against Iran -- President Trump said on Friday that the US Navy was acting “like pirates” while enforcing the blockade against Iran, comments that affirm Tehran’s characterization of the US military action, which has involved seizing ships and Iranian oil.“We … land on top of it and we took over the ship,” Trump told a crowd of his supporters during a rally in Florida while discussing an Iranian cargo ship the US military fired on and boarded in the Gulf of Oman.“We took over the cargo, took over the oil. It’s a very profitable business. Who would have thought we were doing that? We’re like pirates. We’re like pirates. We’re sort of like pirates, but we’re not playing games,” he added.Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that Trump’s comments were an acknowledgment of the criminal nature of the US blockade.“The President of the United States has openly described the unlawful seizure of Iranian vessels as ‘piracy,’ brazenly boasting that ‘we act like pirates.’ This was no verbal slip. It was a direct and damning admission of the criminal nature of their actions against international maritime navigation,” Baqaei wrote on X.“The international community, UN Member States, and the UN Secretary-General must firmly reject any normalization of such blatant violations of international law,” the Iranian spokesman added.
Trump Says US Will 'Guide' Ships Out of the Strait of Hormuz Starting Monday Morning -- President Trump said in a long post on Truth Social on Sunday night that the US has informed other countries that it will help “guide” their commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would mark an escalation of US military operations off of Iran’s coast and risk an Iranian response. The president dubbed the effort “Project Freedom” and said that it would begin on Monday morning, Iran time. Trump said the countries the US will assist are “neutral” and the “victim of circumstance,” that circumstance being the US and Israel launching a war with Iran.“This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries, But, in particular, the Country of Iran,” Trump wrote. “If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.” In response to Trump’s announcement, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site News that the move “is primarily intended to provoke Iran into taking an initial step toward confrontation, thereby creating a pretext for escalation and enabling him to justify further military action in response to an Iranian initiative.”The official said that Iran’s “definitive position is that any commercial vessel attempting to transit through designated restricted routes without prior coordination will be promptly intercepted by Iranian forces. Should U.S. military vessels respond, such actions would be met with an immediate and corresponding response from Iran.”The Iranian official also noted that US warships are currently far from the Strait of Hormuz and that if any commercial ships attempt to exit the Persian Gulf, they would be intercepted by Iranian vessels well before reaching the US naval armada.US officials told Axios that Trump’s announcement doesn’t necessarily mean that US Navy ships would be escorting commercial vessels. They said US warships would be in the “vicinity,” but that it would involve the Navy providing information to commercial ships about the best way to navigate through the strait.Trump also said in the post that his representatives are “having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all,” though there are currently no direct negotiations as messages are being passed through Pakistan.The US has responded to Iran’s new proposal, which, according to Iranian media, is aimed at putting a permanent end to hostilities in the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel has continued its occupation, heavy strikes, and demolition of buildings despite a ceasefire agreement and Trump’s declaration that Israel was “prohibited” from further attacks in the country. Some media reports said that Iran’s 14-point proposal included a 15-year freeze on Iran’s uranium enrichment and a resumption of enrichment at the 3.67% level, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that it was the case. “The plan we have presented is centered on ending the war. There are absolutely no details regarding the country’s nuclear issues in this proposal,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei. Baqaei also said that the “Americans have given their answer to Iran’s 14-point plan to the Pakistani side, and we are currently reviewing it.”
Tehran Rejects ‘Project Freedom,’ Warns Hormuz Security is under Iranian Control - Palestine Chronicle -- Iran strongly rejected US President Donald Trump’s newly announced naval initiative known as ‘Project Freedom’, warning that any American involvement in managing transit through the Strait of Hormuz would constitute a violation of the current ceasefire framework. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, issued a sharp warning to Washington, stating that US interference in emerging maritime arrangements in the Strait would breach existing understandings. Azizi dismissed Trump’s initiative outright, saying the management of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf waters “would not be dictated by Trump’s delusional posts.” He also accused Washington of attempting to impose a political narrative over maritime security developments in the region while ignoring Iranian sovereignty. Iran Demands Direct Coordination Ali Abdollahi, commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, declared that the security of the Strait of Hormuz is “exclusively” under Iranian control. “The security of the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of the Iranian armed forces,” Abdollahi said. He stressed that all commercial vessels and oil tankers seeking safe passage through the Strait must coordinate directly with Iranian forces stationed in the area. “Any safe passage in the strait is coordinated with our forces,” he added. Abdollahi warned ships against attempting to cross the waterway without prior coordination with Iranian authorities. Warnings to US and Regional Allies The Iranian commander also issued direct warnings to the United States and allied regional states. He said any foreign military force attempting to enter or approach the Strait of Hormuz would face attack. Abdollahi described US military forces as “aggressor terrorists” engaged in “piracy and theft in open waters.” He further warned Washington’s regional allies against supporting American operations in the Gulf. “Aggressors and their allies must understand that the steadfast and courageous nation and armed forces have proven that they will respond very harshly to any aggression,” he said.
Iran opened fire on US warships; 6 small boats destroyed in retaliation: Centcom - Iran opened fire on U.S. warships in the Middle East on Monday and the U.S. military retaliated, destroying six Iranian small boats, according to U.S. Central Command (Centcom) leader Adm. Brad Cooper. The U.S. military intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones as the Trump administration launched an effort to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively choked off in recent weeks, Cooper said in a call with reporters Monday. Cooper told reporters that he “strongly advised” Iran to steer clear of U.S. military assets as the Pentagon proceeds with the Project Freedom and that the U.S. naval blockade, which bars vessels departing from Iranian ports from leaving the region, will remain in effect. Multiple U.S. Navy destroyers are positioned in the Persian Gulf, Cooper said, adding that the U.S. has cleared an “effective pathway” through Iran’s mines for commercial ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The vessels in the Persian Gulf represent 87 different countries, Cooper said. He added that the U.S. military has reached out to dozens of ships and shipping companies in the last 12 hours to “encourage traffic flow” through the Strait of Hormuz as part of President Trump’s Project Freedom. Cooper’s comments come as two cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers protecting vessels in the Persian Gulf. Tensions have been simmering between the U.S. and Iran, threatening the ceasefire that has been in effect since last month. Iran also fired on U.S. allies along Persian Gulf on Monday. The United Arab Emirates reported missile and drone launches over its airspace, with its defense ministry saying it intercepted three cruise missiles while a fourth one landed in the sea.
US Central Command Says It Destroyed Six Iranian Boats; Iran Denies Naval Losses - - US Central Command said on Monday that US military helicopters sank six Iranian boats, an allegation Iranian officials have denied, according to Iranian media, as the ceasefire between the US and Iran appears to have collapsed. The comments from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper came after Iranian media reported that Iran struck a US warship in the region, which the US then denied. The Iranian Navy later said that it fired missiles and drones as a warning to the US warships that were approaching the Strait of Hormuz. The apparent trading of fire between the US and Iran comes after President Trump announced US forces would “guide” commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation of US military operations that he dubbed “Project Freedom.”Cooper said that the US attacked Iranian boats after they interfered with commercial shipping. “What we saw this morning was Iran initiating aggressive behaviors. We are simply going to respond to that,” he told reporters. Also on Monday, the UAE said that it came under Iranian missile and drone attacks and that it has the right to respond. UAE authorities reported a fire at an oil facility after one of the attacks and said that three Indian nationals were injured. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, President Trump threatened that Iran will be “blown of the face of the earth” if its forces attack US ships. But later in the day, the president declined to say whether the ceasefire was still in effect after the flare-ups. “I can’t tell you that,” Trump told radio Host Hugh Hewitt when he asked if the ceasefire was over. “You wouldn’t — if I answered that question, you’d say this man is not smart enough to be president.” Throughout the ceasefire, the US had been deploying additional forces and military equipment to the region, suggesting it was planning to restart attacks on Iran regardless of how indirect talks through Pakistan progressed. In response to Trump announcing “Project Freedom,” an Iranian official told Drop Site News that the US’s intention was “primarily intended to provoke Iran into taking an initial step toward confrontation, thereby creating a pretext for escalation and enabling him to justify further military action in response to an Iranian initiative.”
Iranian Media: Attack on UAE Oil Facility Result of US 'Adventurism' in the Strait of Hormuz - Iranian media reported on Monday that the attack on oil facilities in the UAE’s port of Fujairah was the result of US “adventurism” in the Strait of Hormuz.“Iran had no pre-planned intention to attack the Fujairah oil facilities,” an Iranian military official told the Iranian broadcaster IRIB. “The incident resulted from US military adventurism to create an illegal passage through restricted areas of the Strait of Hormuz. US must be held accountable,” the official added. The comments suggest that the strikes on the Fujairah oil facilities were Iran’s response to the US’s new attempt to get commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, though so far there’s been no official comment from Tehran about the attacks on the UAE. The UAE said that its air defenses “engaged” 19 Iranian missiles and drones on Monday, and, according to sources speaking with CNN, an Israeli Iron Dome system that was secretly deployed to the Gulf Arab state was used to intercept projectiles. At least three people, Indian nationals, were injured by the attacks on the Fujairah oil facilities.President Trump announced on Sunday night that US forces would “guide” commercial ships out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command claimed that two US Navy destroyers transited the strait and enabled two US-flagged commercial ships to also make the passage. the Iranian Navy said that it fired missiles and drones at US warships, and CENTCOM also claimed that its forces destroyed six Iranian boats, which was denied by Iranian officials.The attacks on the UAE would mark Tehran’s most significant response yet to US military escalations since the ceasefire ended the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran.“Iranian analyst tells me that Tehran’s warning shots at US warships and the strikes on the UAE reveal Iran’s new posture: If Trump plans to restart the war, Iran will not wait for Trump to do so before it retaliates. It will strike preemptively in a measured way to deter Trump,” Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, wrote on X.
Iran's Foreign Minister Says No Military Solution To Hormuz, Warns US and UAE Against a 'Quagmire' - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that the flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday show there’s no “military solution” to the crisis and warned the US and the UAE against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock,” the Iranian diplomat added.The incidents on Monday, which involved the US and Iran trading fire and Iranian drones and missiles targeting the UAE, came after Iran submitted a new proposal to the US through Pakistan to bring a permanent end to the conflict.Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that Tehran was reviewing the US response to the proposal, but then Trump announced a new US military operation to “guide” commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that Trump went ahead with the escalation because he was fed up with the stalemate with Iran. One source close to the president told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that the US military operation was the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians.”The source suggested the purpose of it could be to create a situation to frame Iran as the aggressor, saying that the “humanitarian” mission means “if the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act.”
Donald Trump accuses Pope Leo of endangering Catholics with Iran war rhetoric --President Trump reignited his attacks on Pope Leo XIV on Monday, accusing the pontiff of condoning Iran’s development of nuclear weaponry. “I think he’s endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people,” Trump said in a recent interview with Hugh Hewitt. “But I guess if it’s up to the pope, he thinks it’s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”The American-born pope has broadly urged an end to the hostilities and a return to the negotiation table to reach a peace deal. While Leo has not directly criticized the president, he has extended veiled criticism on the administration in his opposition to the war. Trump lashed out in response to the pope’s comments about the war, attacking him as “weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy” in a Truth Social post last month. The president’s explicit attacks on the head of the Catholic Church and his decision to post an AI-doctored image that appeared to depict him as Jesus Christ have drawn pushback from some within his own political base. Trump later removed the image, saying he believed it depicted him as a doctor. Vice President Vance, a Catholic, also joined in on criticizing the pontiff’s commentary on the conflict. “I don’t think that it’s particularly newsworthy, but I certainly think that in some cases it would be best for the Vatican to stick to matters of morality, to stick to matters of what’s going on in the Catholic Church and let the president of the United States stick to dictating American public policy,” he told Fox News last month. Another Catholic member of the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is set to travel to Vatican City on Thursday for a “frank conversation” with the pope about disagreements between the U.S. and the Vatican over the war in Iran.
Live updates: Trump declines to say whether US-Iran ceasefire is still in effect as Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate | CNN ==Here's the latest
- • Ceasefire under strain: The ceasefire between the US and Iran is being tested after both sides fired shots in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Donald Trump to decline to say if the truce remains in place. In addition, the United Arab Emirates, a US ally, said that its air defenses “engaged” 19 Iranian missiles and drones and that a drone attack caused a fire at an oil port in the Fujairah region.
- • US threat: Trump also warned Iranian forces they would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attempted to target US ships in the strait or the Persian Gulf.
- • Impact on economy: Oil prices rose and stocks fell on concerns about the safety of transiting the critical waterway. Average US gas prices could reach $5 a gallon if the strait remains closed, an oil market expert told CNN.
The ceasefire with Iran is on shaky ground amid apparently competing priorities between hardliners and moderates in Iran and its future could hinge on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday, CNN International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson reports.Iran launched drone and rocket attacks at targets in the United Arab Emirates on Monday, authorities said.The UAE, a US ally, said its air defenses “engaged” 19 Iranian missiles and drones. However, three Indian nationals were moderately injured following a drone strike that sparked a “major fire” at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. CNN’s Paula Hancocks reports.
Pete Hegseth: Hundreds of ships lining up under 'red, white and blue dome' over Hormuz Strait - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said hundreds of commercial ships are lining up to leave the Strait of Hormuz as the United States has erected a “red, white and blue dome” over the corridor, which has been largely closed off by Iran since the start of the war. President Trump’s “Project Freedom,” an operation to guide tankers through the strait with American assets deployed nearby to protect against Iranian attacks, began Monday. The U.S. military said two commercial vessels passed through the strait Monday. However, Tehran’s forces opened fire on U.S. warships and commercial vessels and warned ships not to test its control of the waterway. “Iran’s plan, a form of international extortion, is unacceptable. That ends with Project Freedom. Two U.S. commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear,” Hegseth told reporters at a Pentagon briefing Tuesday morning. . “And right now, hundreds more ships from nations around the world are lining up to transit,” he added. Hegseth said U.S. Central Command, along with partner countries, was in communication with these ships, their owners and insurers. “As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait. American destroyers are on station, supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance aircraft providing 24/7 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels, except Iran’s of course.” Hegseth said six Iranian ships were turned back Monday, showing the U.S. blockade of the strait remained in full effect.
US is oil supplier of last resort as Hormuz disruptions worsen -- The tankers have been arriving from all over the world in unprecedented numbers. After loading up in Alaska and along the US Gulf Coast, they head back out to sea — to Japan, Thailand and even as far as Australia. All told, over the past nine weeks, more than 250 million barrels of crude from oil wells and storage tanks across the US have been shipped overseas. That’s made the country, once again, the No. 1 exporter of crude, overtaking Saudi Arabia, and turned it into a lifeline for global consumers as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz throttles Middle Eastern supplies. But record American exports also come with warnings that this supply cushion is rapidly being pushed to its limits. Many energy experts are questioning how long shipments can be sustained at such levels. US domestic inventories are quickly depleting, with total oil and fuel stockpiles drawing down for four straight weeks to below historical averages. Meanwhile, America’s oil producers are struggling to keep up. “Ships are coming to take our oil, but once significant volumes of oil are leaving the United States, it can be expected that balances will tighten,” “We are digging ourselves a hole in terms of spending down inventories.” It’s a problem with global consequences. Even with a steady stream of US exports in recent weeks, it hasn’t been enough to eclipse the supply shortages sparked by the choking off of the strait. Brent crude, the key benchmark, has jumped roughly 50% since the war broke out and just last week topped $126 a barrel, the highest since 2022. If America’s crude shipments are now nearing their maximum, the competition for barrels will grow even stiffer. Within the US, energy inflation is already projected to factor heavily into November’s midterm elections. Retail gasoline prices are soaring, and some voters are sure to question why so much oil is being shipped out to international markets. US President Donald Trump has been boasting about the surging exports. “This has been amazing,” he said Friday. “The amount of oil and gas that we’re selling now is at a level that nobody’s ever seen.” In the months after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gasoline in the US topped out just over $5 a gallon. It’s a threshold Energy Secretary Chris Wright has emphasized, to draw a contrast with lower fuel costs today. And it will be a key level to watch over the next few months leading into the election. Average prices for US retail gasoline have already topped $4.40 a gallon. “The United States is insulated, but not isolated,” from the energy crisis sweeping the world, said Jay Singh, head of US oil and gas research at Rystad Energy. Much of the oil leaving American shores during the Iran war has headed to Asia. The region’s refiners until recently relied on the Persian Gulf as their main source of oil supply, with the war now forcing a hard pivot toward US crude. One striking example is Japan. Before the war, the nation bought around 90% of its crude and fuel supply from the Middle East, along with only minimal volumes of American oil. Now the country is among those first out of the gate to snap up US supply. Sales of supplies that will be loaded in June, and which will arrive in August or thereabouts, began just days ago and Japanese refiners collectively have already bought at least 8 million barrels of US crude, said traders familiar with the matter. In Singapore, a regional commodity trading hub, refiners have also swung to purchasing more US crude. And demand from South Korea — long the world’s second-biggest buyer of US crude — remains strong. To be sure, Japan and South Korea have crude stockpiles of their own to help provide a buffer. Limited crude flows from the United Arab Emirates and Oman are also still taking place. Questions remain, however, over how long such supplies can last — especially with little publicly known about the national storage levels. And other exporters, such as Brazil, don’t typically ship the crude grades that these Asian nations need most. The transformation of the US from a net importer of oil to a major global supplier is relatively new. The shift was sparked by the shale revolution of the early 2000s, when horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing from Texas to North Dakota swiftly boosted domestic production. In 2015, the US lifted a ban that prohibited most oil exports, which was imposed in the wake of the 1970s Arab oil embargo. By 2019, booming shale production made the country a net exporter of crude and fuels. Analysts say America’s emergence as an energy juggernaut underpins its ability to take increasingly bold foreign policy steps. This year alone, the US ousted Venezuela’s long-time leader, enforced sanctions on two of Russia’s biggest oil companies and, along with Israel, started the war in Iran — all moves that threatened global crude balances. Trump — a relentless champion of what he calls America’s “energy dominance” — has repeatedly boasted about the ability of the US to help fill the massive crude supply gap created by the war in Iran. “We have more oil production right now than any time in history,” Trump said to reporters on Friday. “And if you take a look at the ships, they’re all coming up to Texas, Louisiana, Alaska.”
US oil stocks plummet, country becomes net crude exporter on weekly basis for first time, EIA says (Reuters) - The United States became a net exporter of crude for the first time since World War Two as the country shipped a record volume of oil to refiners scrambling for supplies after the Iran war, leading to large drops in domestic inventories, the Energy Information Administration said last Wednesday. Europe and Asia have increasingly become dependent on crude from the Americas after the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global energy market and halted shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies. Total U.S. crude exports climbed to a record 6.44 million barrels per day, marking a 1.64 million bpd rise from the week prior. Oil futures extended gains following the report. Global Brent crude futures were up $8.11 at $119.37 a barrel at 12:35 p.m. ET (1635 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $7.06 a barrel at $106.91. Net imports of crude oil, or the difference between imports and exports, fell by 1.97 million bpd to minus 688,000 bpd, the first time it turned negative on a weekly basis, meaning outflows surpassed imports. On an annual basis, the U.S. was last a net exporter of crude in 1943, while on a monthly basis, the country was last a net exporter in 1944. The large exports pushed U.S. crude inventories down by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels in the week ended April 24, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 231,000-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub dropped by 796,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said. "Refineries didn't change. Domestic production was unchanged. It was all about the export numbers. Those barrels are going overseas rather than into storage," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products also touched a record 14.18 million bpd, up 1.298 million bpd from the week prior. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to 222.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel draw. That marked the 11th straight week of draws, raising some concerns about fuel stocks as U.S. driving season looms.
Marco Rubio to take questions as Karoline Leavitt replacement in White House briefing The Iran war will be at the forefront Tuesday when Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes the first person to stand in for press secretary Karoline Leavitt as she begins her maternity leave. Iran and the U.S. exchange fire on Monday as the Trump administration began “Project Freedom,” an effort to guide some ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has repeatedly closed amid the war. Despite the exchange, U.S. officials on Tuesday insisted the ceasefire between the sides remains. “This is separate and distinct from Operation Epic Fury,” Hegseth said at a press conference on Tuesday. “We expected there would be some churn at the beginning, which happened” he said, when asked about the exchange of fire. Rubio’s appearance in the briefing room comes before he is set to travel to Rome and Vatican City later this week to meet with Pope Leo XIV to discuss U.S. policies, including the Iran war, which the pope has spoken out against. Rubio, one of the administration’s Catholics, will meet with Leo, the first American pope, on Thursday. “Secretary Rubio will meet with Holy See leadership to discuss the situation in the Middle East and mutual interests in the Western Hemisphere,” the department said. “Meetings with Italian counterparts will be focused on shared security interests and strategic alignment.” The trip comes after Trump criticized Leo for his comments against the war and shared an AI-image of himself that made him look like Jesus. Both incidents angered the Catholic voter base. Leavitt started her maternity leave at the end of April ahead of giving birth to her second child. There was no specific person selected to take over the role while she is gone, but there will instead be a rotating cast of administration officials, which could also reportedly include President Trump and Vice President Vance. Rubio and Vance are widely seen as the most likely candidates to succeed Trump as the GOP standard-bearer in a presidential race in 2028.
Newsmax reporter to Hegseth: ‘When did the president decide to capitulate?’ - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared annoyed Tuesday after a reporter asked him when President Trump decided to capitulate on his initial demands for Iran to surrender unconditionally. In a tense exchange at aa Pentagon press briefing, Newsmax’s James Rosen pointed to Trump’s changing justification for the war with Tehran which began on Feb. 28, initially offering his “gratitude and admiration” to Hegseth and U.S. forces before questioning the president’s shifting rhetoric. “I want to first express my gratitude and admiration for the work you do and for everyone involved in our armed forces and also for the accomplishments of Operation Epic Fury, which I think are too often dismissed too lightly,” Rosen said to Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine. “But those accomplishments don’t obscure, I think, a central default that has occurred here, and I would like you both to address it,” he added. “On the first day of this conflict, President Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and said, ‘when we’re finished, take over your government. It’ll be yours to take.’ And then on the seventh day of the conflict, in a Truth Social post, the president said, ‘There will be no deal with Iran except’ all caps, exclamation mark ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!’” Rosen continued: “What happens to that pledge to the Iranians? And when did the president decide to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?” Hegseth insisted that Trump “hasn’t capitulated on anything,” attacking Rosen for asking the question. “James, I wouldn’t – You started out nicely, but you ended exactly where we knew you would end,” the defense chief responded. “The president hasn’t capitulated on anything. He holds the cards, we maintain the upper hand, and Project Freedom only strengthens that hand,” Hegseth continued. “And so, he will ensure that whatever deal is made, or whatever end state is reached, creates ensuring that Iran never has a nuclear weapon, which is A No. 1.” “And he’s been focused on that, and the deal and discussions are centered on that. And what the Iranian people take advantage of after the fact is up to them,” he added. “And he’s been very clear about that.” Trump at the start of the conflict demanded unconditional surrender from Tehran, calling on the Iranian people to take back the country from the regime. As the Middle East conflict has continued, however, the president changed his tune, declaring that a regime change had been achieved as Iran’s original leaders were “decimated” and replaced by a new group of individuals. The U.S. is currently in a fragile ceasefire agreement with Iran, which Trump extended indefinitely on April 21 to get the regime to come to a peace agreement. He has repeatedly claimed that the fighting is close to an end, even as he has continuously made new threats against Tehran.
Murkowski spearheads GOP showdown over Iran -- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is leading a push within the Senate Republican Conference for a vote on a resolution to authorize the use of military force against Iran beyond the 60-day window set by the 1973 War Powers Act. But Senate Republican Leader John Thune (S.D.) doesn’t appear eager to schedule a vote that would give Republican lawmakers ownership of the controversial war. Senate Republican sources say Murkowski likely won’t get a vote on her measure because it’s not privileged. Additionally, she would need Thune to agree to put it on the busy Senate calendar. But if Republican senators don’t have an opportunity to vote on a measure to authorize military operations against Iran, that could open the door for more Republicans to vote for a Democratic-sponsored resolution ordering President Trump to withdraw U.S. troops deployed against Iran. Democrats plan to vote against any resolution authorizing the use of force against Iran because every Democratic senator opposes the conflict except for Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.). They would like to see Republicans vote for a resolution authorizing the conflict because that would put individual senators on record in favor of continuing the war, which polls show is unpopular with most voters. As many as five other Republicans could vote to end military hostilities against Iran unless Murkowski prevails in her effort to pass a resolution formally authorizing the military campaign — which would bring the naval blockade against Iranian ports and future military strikes against Iran into compliance with the War Powers Act. Murkowski is courting support from a group of Republican colleagues, including Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.), John Curtis (Utah), Todd Young (Ind.) and Josh Hawley (Mo.), who have warned that Congress needs to authorize the conflict if it stretches past 60 days. All five GOP senators have said that Congress needs to have more say if the war drags on for more than a few months. Trump notified Congress of the strikes against Iran on March 2. The 60-day window set by the War Powers Act, which allowed Trump to deploy U.S. forces without congressional authorization, expired on May 1. Murkowski told colleagues on the Senate floor last week that she wants Congress to vote on a resolution authorizing the conflict to “establish a framework” that would require Trump to “come to Congress with clearly defined political and military objectives.” “It would require metrics for success, notice of any changes in objectives and exit criteria. It would ultimately ensure that Congress is engaged,” she said. On Thursday, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) broke ranks with GOP leadership and voted for a resolution to halt further military actions against Iran unless authorized by Congress. She flipped her position on the Iran war powers resolution after previously voting five times to defeat similar measures. Collins warned before the vote that she would likely not vote to authorize the war beyond the 60-day window allowed by the War Powers Act. “The 60-day trigger is a very important one. At that point, Congress has to authorize the military action to continue,” Collins said two weeks ago, telegraphing her intent to vote against continued military operations. “I will not support extending the hostilities beyond that 60 days except for wind-down activities.”
Marco Rubio: War Powers Act is '100 percent unconstitutional' - Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday argued the War Powers Act is unconstitutional, adding that the Trump administration is only complying with “elements” of it to maintain good relations with Congress. “The War Powers Act is unconstitutional, 100 percent,” Rubio told reporters during a White House briefing, claiming that his position has been shared by “every single president” that has occupied the Oval Office since the law passed in 1973. Also known as the War Powers Resolution, the federal law requires the sitting president to seek congressional authorization for foreign conflicts. Meant to function as a check on the commander-in-chief’s ability to begin or escalate hostilities, the law mandates the president must notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops in response to an “imminent threat,” and requires American forces be withdrawn from any conflict within 60 to 90 days unless Congress declares war or authorizes the action. President Trump ordered a start to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran on Feb. 28, but did not formally notify Congress until March 2. As the conflict passed its 60-day mark on Friday, Trump was asked whether he would seek approval from lawmakers. He replied that, “It’s never been sought before” and that the law was “totally unconstitutional.” The administration last week argued in a letter to Congress that the clock on the War Powers Act stopped when Trump declared a 14-day ceasefire with Iran on April 7, which he has since extended indefinitely. On Tuesday, Rubio said gestures of compliance with the law did not mean officials “acknowledge the law as constitutional.” “Now we comply with it in terms of like, notification, because we want to preserve good relations with Congress, right? And we do that,” Rubio said. He also stressed that it’s not only Trump’s position that the law is unconstitutional, but that it “has been the position of every single presidential administration since the day that law passed, as an infringement on the President’s constitutional powers.”
Former NATO commander says US, Iran in 'game of chicken' - Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark on Tuesday said the U.S. and Iran, which have maintained a fragile ceasefire for weeks, are caught in a “game of chicken” over the Strait of Hormuz. Clark told MS NOW host Ana Cabrera that the U.S. is “trying to get the strait open and force Iran into the position of being the bad actor” while both countries attempt to maintain negotiations and establish peace. “The point is, you can’t look at this as black or white diplomacy or gunboat fire, this is both simultaneously,” he told Cabrera. “And so, it’s a game of chicken.” Clark said that it was neither war nor peace and suggested that the conflict is not in the middle of a ceasefire but rather that the conflict exists “to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.” “And we’re not going to accept that Iran owns the strait,” he continued. “We’ve already put down our first bargaining position by moving the two destroyers through yesterday and getting a couple of ships through. We’ll see what we do next on this, but it is a combination of force and diplomacy.”
Top US General Says Iran's Attacks 'Below the Threshold' of Restarting Bombing Campaign - The US military’s top general said on Tuesday that Iran’s recent attacks in the region were “below the threshold” of the US restarting its bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic, as the US continues to downplay the flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz that occurred a day earlier.“Since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships. They’ve attacked US forces more than 10 times. All below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters at a press briefing at the Pentagon. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth also said at the briefing that the ceasefire is “not over” and claimed that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is “separate and distinct” from the war that the US and Israel launched against Iran on February 28, likely an effort to obscure the status of the conflict, which was launched without congressional authorization, a violation of the US Constitution.The incidents on Monday included Iran firing warning shots at US warships, an attack on a South Korean oil tanker, and the US firing on Iranian boats. The US claimed it destroyed six “attack boats” while Iran said the attack actually hit two cargo boats and killed five civilians. The UAE has also come under drone and missile attacks, including strikes that hit oil facilities in its port of Fujairah. Iranian media and officials hinted that Iran was responsible for the attacks, but the Iranian military claimed on Tuesday that it was not behind the strikes.While so far the US has downplayed the incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Israel could restart the bombing campaign in Iran at any moment. A US source speaking to Axios this week suggested that the purpose of the new military operation in the Strait of Hormuz, dubbed “Project Freedom,” could be designed to create a pretext to restart full-scale war.The source said that the “humanitarian” mission means “if the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act.”
Iran war a ‘long-planned project,’ Sachs warns of global economic fallout -- Economist Jeffrey Sachs says the ongoing conflict involving Iran is not an accidental development but rather the result of a long-term geopolitical strategy, cautioning that further escalation could trigger severe global economic consequences. In a podcast interview with Tucker Carlson, Sachs described the war as “a war of choice,” arguing that it is driven by ambitions of regional dominance rather than immediate security concerns. According to him, the conflict reflects decades of efforts to reshape the Middle East. Sachs emphasized that, contrary to expectations, the war has not weakened Iran. Instead, he said, the country has grown more coordinated at the regional level, gained military experience, and strengthened ties with non-Western global powers. Addressing the roots of hostility toward Iran, Sachs pointed to historical factors, particularly US involvement in Iran’s past, including the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, which he described as a key moment shaping long-term distrust and geopolitical tensions. He also challenged prevailing narratives ??? Iran’s nuclear program, arguing that claims about Tehran imminently developing nuclear weapons have been exaggerated or politically instrumentalized to justify pressure and confrontation. The economist linked regional conflicts to what he described as a broader strategic vision, often referred to as the “Greater Israel” concept, suggesting that multiple wars in the Middle East should be viewed as interconnected rather than isolated events. Sachs further argued that U.S. foreign policy has been heavily influenced by lobbying networks, including energy interests and pro-Israel groups, believing that such forces have played a decisive role in shaping Washington’s approach to the region. Despite acknowledging internal challenges such as drought and environmental pressures in Iran, Sachs said external pressure has failed to weaken the country, instead reinforcing its regional posture and alliances. Reflecting on his exchanges with Israeli officials, Sachs argued that military solutions are unlikely to bring lasting security and may instead deepen instability. He also discussed the historical background of Zionism and the establishment of Israel, referencing figures such as David Ben-Gurion, and highlighted their long-term impact on regional dynamics. Looking ahead, Sachs warned that Israel could face a major strategic dilemma if U.S. support declines, adding that the current trajectory of regional policy is “untenable” and cannot be sustained indefinitely without serious consequences. He cautioned that a broader escalation of the war could have far-reaching economic effects, including damage to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, a sharp rise in oil prices, accelerating global inflation, and the possibility of a worldwide recession. According to Sachs, such a scenario could trigger a systemic shock across the global economy. While rejecting the idea that conflict is inevitable, Sachs said current policies are increasing the risk of escalation. He concluded by questioning whether existing political and economic systems could withstand the pressures of a prolonged, expanding conflict.
Tucker Carlson Says Trump Became ‘Hostage’ to Israel over Iran War - NYT - In a sweeping interview with The New York Times, Tucker Carlson launched his sharpest public attack yet against Donald Trump’s handling of the war with Iran, arguing that the US president was effectively controlled by Israeli pressure. Carlson, once among Trump’s most influential media allies, said he repeatedly warned Trump against joining Israel’s military campaign against Iran. “I said: These are people who hated you from Day 1,” Carlson said, referring to pro-war figures surrounding the president, adding: “This war will destroy you.” The conservative commentator claimed Trump entered the conflict reluctantly and against his own instincts. “My strong impression was that Trump was more a hostage than a sovereign decision-maker in this,” he said. Carlson stated that Trump repeatedly reassured him before the war began by saying, “Everything’s going to be OK,” despite understanding the risks. Carlson’s harshest criticism focused on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and what he described as overwhelming Israeli influence inside Washington. “You’re either creating or destroying in this life,” Carlson said of Trump, before accusing him of subordinating US interests to Israel. “Trump could not restrain Netanyahu,” he said. “That’s slavery. That is total control of one man by another.” Carlson argued that Israel deliberately sabotaged ceasefire negotiations after Trump announced efforts to de-escalate tensions with Iran. According to Carlson, Israel escalated military operations in Lebanon specifically to prevent a diplomatic settlement. “The point of it was to end any talk of a negotiated settlement,” he said. Carlson further claimed that Trump was politically unable to publicly challenge Netanyahu despite Israel’s dependence on US military support. “Netanyahu is the one person to whom Trump couldn’t say, ‘Settle down or we’ll defund you,’” Carlson said. Carlson alleged that pressure for war came largely from outside the administration. He specifically named Rupert Murdoch, Miriam Adelson, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin and other pro-Israel figures as pushing Trump toward confrontation with Iran. “They were telling him that you will save and redeem Israel,” Carlson stated. He argued that few officials inside the administration openly supported war, instead portraying Trump as trapped between donor pressure and political expectations. Carlson also described the broader US political system as heavily shaped by pro-Israel influence. “There’s about 500 [members of Congress] who are taking money from AIPAC,” he said during the interview. He repeatedly framed the Iran war as evidence that US foreign policy no longer reflects American interests. Carlson also intensified his criticism of Christian Zionism and unconditional US support for Israel. He argued that evangelical backing for Israel had become one of the main political drivers of US Middle East policy. “There are tens of millions of evangelical Christians who unquestioningly support Israel because they believe it’s their theological duty,” he said. Carlson openly questioned the theological and political foundations of unwavering support for the Israeli state. “The second you start telling me that as a Christian, I’m obligated to support the government of this country, then I have a right to ask what you’re talking about,” he said. He further accused the US political and media establishment of conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism in order to silence debate. “Criticism of Netanyahu is not hatred of all Jews,” Carlson stated. The interview highlighted deepening fractures inside the MAGA coalition over foreign policy, particularly after the Iran war expanded far beyond Trump’s initial promises. Carlson said the conflict had effectively destroyed the anti-interventionist identity Trump built during his political rise. “He campaigned against the things he’s now doing,” Carlson said. The former Fox News host also suggested the war could politically damage Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans associated with the administration. “This whole thing is dooming anyone connected to it,” he warned. Carlson repeatedly described the Iran war as one of the greatest political and strategic disasters of modern US history. “This is the single most foolish thing any American president has ever done,” he said.
Donald Trump announces pause on Project Freedom - President Trump announced a pause on the U.S. operation Project Freedom on Tuesday evening based on a request from Pakistan and other countries but added that the U.S. Navy blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place. “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” the president wrote in a post on Truth Social. The halt of the U.S.-led effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which began early Monday, comes as Iranian armed forces have fired drones and missiles at U.S. military assets in the region and the U.S military has retaliated, sinking six Iranian small boats. Earlier on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire is holding but emphasized that Project Freedom is a temporary defense effort to reignite the shipping through the strait, which has been effectively choked off for weeks by Iran. “This is separate and distinct from Operation Epic Fury,” Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon, while later in the day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told journalists at the White House that Operation Epic Fury is over. Rubio also chastised the Iranian regime as having “insane in the brain” leaders and warned that they should not test Trump as tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz. “This is not an offensive operation. This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple, there’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first,” Rubio told reporters. Project Freedom was enforced by several U.S. Navy destroyers, air and land-based U.S. military assets, along with about 15,000 sailors in the U.S. Central Command region. Two U.S. commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have traversed the strait, Hegseth said Tuesday morning. “We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact,” Hegseth said during the press conference. “They said they control the strait — they do not. So, American ships led the way, commercial and military, shouldering the initial risk from the front — as Americans always do. Right now, hundreds more ships from nations around the world are lining up to transit.” Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that as of Tuesday morning, there are over 1,500 vessels with around 22,500 mariners “trapped” inside the Persian Gulf. “Centcom has established an enhanced security area on the southern side of the strait that is now protected by U.S. land, naval and air assets to help defeat further Iranian aggression against commercial shipping,” Caine said.
LIVE BLOG: Trump Suspends ‘Project Freedom’ in Strait of Hormuz after Less than 48 Hours - Day 67 - Palestine Chronicle US President Donald Trump announced the temporary suspension of “Project Freedom” aimed at facilitating ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz less than 48 hours after its launch, claiming the move is intended to “test the possibility” of reaching and signing an agreement with Iran while maintaining the naval blockade. Trump said the decision followed requests from Pakistan and other countries, alongside what he described as a ‘major military success’ against Iran and significant progress toward a ‘full and final agreement’ with Iranian representatives. Informed Iranian sources said the two American commercial vessels Washington claimed had crossed the Strait of Hormuz remain stranded in rocky waters near the Omani coast, adding that the area is unsuitable for safe navigation.
President Pezeshkian: Iran will never submit to US threats, bullying - President Masoud Pezeshkian has stressed that Iran rejects the language of threats, and will never submit to US “bullying.” Pezeshkian made the remarks in a phone call with Iraqi prime minister-designate Ali Faleh al-Zaidi on Tuesday during which discussed the challenge faced by regional countries following the US-Israeli aggression against Iran. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready for any dialogue within the framework of international law, but based on its faith, belief, and conviction, it has not submitted and will never submit to coercion in any way. If they speak to us logically, dialogue is possible, but the language of threats and bullying will not lead anywhere,” Pezeshkian said during the phone call. The US and Israel started a fresh round of aerial aggression on Iran on February 28, some eight months after they carried out unprovoked attacks on the country. Iran began to swiftly retaliate against the strikes by launching barrages of missile and drone attacks on the Israeli-occupied territories as well as on US bases and interests in regional countries. On April 8, a Pakistan-brokered temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US took effect. However, subsequent peace negotiations in Islamabad ultimately failed amid Washington’s maximalist demands and insistence on unreasonable positions. Despite the ongoing ceasefire announced, US President Donald Trump continues to threaten Iran with military aggression, while refusing to lift a so-called naval blockade on Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Iran has maintained that the blockade amounts to piracy and warned that if the security of its ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no other port will be safe. Pezeshkian stressed that the Islamic Republic is keen to maintain its relations with the Persian Gulf Arab states based on good neighborliness. “We do not want any conflict with our brothers in the region, but the reality is that our country's schools, hospitals, and infrastructure were bombed from American bases located on the territory of some countries in the region and with the use of their space and facilities,” he said. “We call for unity and cohesion among the Muslim Ummah based on religious teachings, and we believe that if the right, fair, and just path is followed, there will be no reason left for disagreement,” the president added. Elsewhere in his remarks, the Iranian president congratulated al-Zaidi on his new position, expressing Tehran’s readiness to strengthen cooperation with the “brotherly” country of Iraq. For his part, al-Zaidi vowed to enhance relations with Iran in the economic, political, security and regional convergence fields. He also expressed Baghdad's readiness to host negotiations between Iran and the United States with the aim of ending the war. “We believe that today's power of Iran does not belong solely to Iran, but is a support for all Muslims and Shias, and we will never accept that this power should be taken from Iran. It was this power that helped us in the fight against Daesh [terrorist group]. Iraq needs Iran's support; because Iran's power is Iraq's power, and Iran's weakness will be Iraq's weakness.”
Amid Irans resilience, Trump says pausing plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz -US President Donald Trump says he is "pausing" his so-called "Project Freedom," a new interventionist military adventure with the self-described aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, amid strict controls being exercised over the waterway by Iran. Trump made the announcement in a post on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, just one day after declaring initiation of the project. Framed as a "humanitarian" effort to free stranded merchant ships, the project was supposed to see the US "guide" commercial ships out of the strait. Reacting to news about the project, however, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) warned that any maritime movement running counter to principles declared by the IRGC's Navy would face serious risks. IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi stressed that any trespassing vessel would be "forcibly stopped," ruling out as "baseless" statements made to the contrary regarding maritime affairs governing the Persian Gulf. Iran shut down the strait to enemies and their allies following the launch on February 28 of the United States' and the Israeli regime's latest bout of unprovoked aggression targeting the Islamic Republic. It began exercising far stricter controls last month after Trump announced an illegal blockade of Iranian vessels and ports in continuation of the aggression and in violation of the terms of a ceasefire the US president, himself, had declared earlier. On Friday, the IRGC's Navy pledged to enforce Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei's "historic" directive concerning the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Ayatollah Khamenei had issued the directive a day earlier, asserting that foreigners with "ominous" plots targeting the Persian Gulf had no place in the region "except at the bottom of its waters." Adding to his remarks, Trump alleged that his "decision" to pause the project was based in part on "the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement" with Iran. The Islamic Republic, however, has categorically refused to rejoin talks with the United States as long as the blockade stays in place. Observers commenting on Trump's post, meanwhile, cautioned about the US president's seeking to use the announcement to hide the prospect of fresh pending aggression.
Project Freedom paused as Trump cites 'great progress' made in Iran agreement
- Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
- Two U.S. Navy destroyers successfully transited the strait on Monday while fending off a barrage of small boats, missiles and drones.
- The United Arab Emirates also intercepted more than a dozen missiles launched from Iran on Monday.
- President Donald Trump has vowed Iran will be "blown off the face of the earth" if they continue attacking U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that at least 10 crew members have died ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom" in the Strait of Hormuz.
- President Donald Trump announced that “Project Freedom,” to secure ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz, will be paused temporarily.
Top Democrat: Trump Project Freedom pause another example of ‘strategic incoherence’ - Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) on Tuesday said President Trump’s pause on Project Freedom, the U.S. military’s plan to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, is another example of the leader’s “strategic incoherence.” “This is another example of the strategic incoherence that has dominated this whole operation. The president did not get the authority to conduct this war,” Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said during an appearance on CNN’s “AC360.” “He then entered into a conflict with very ill-defined objectives and with attempts to supposedly eliminate their uranium and enrich uranium products to change the regime,” the senator added. Reed noted that the War Powers Act is “very clear” regarding the timeline of deploying troops into a conflict. After the 60-day mark, which was reached last week, a president must seek congressional approval to extend a military operation. Trump announced Tuesday evening that Project Freedom would be halted at the request of Pakistan, who has served as a key moderator during U.S.-Iran peace talks, and other countries. Despite the pause, the president said the U.S. naval blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place. The Rhode Island Democrat panned Trump’s fleeting stance on the war as strategically ineffective, telling guest host John Berman, “You can’t take a timeout like in football.” “It’s clear that within 60 days of beginning hostilities the President of the United States must either cease hostilities or get the permission of Congress,” Reed continued. “You can’t take a timeout like in football and say ‘oh timeout.'” “That’s the legislation and the President frankly should have come to us before he even started the hostilities and asked for authority. No, they’re just voiding their legal and constitutional responsibilities,” he added.
Report: Trump Paused 'Project Freedom' Due To Backlash From Gulf Arab Allies - NBC News reported on Wednesday that President Trump quickly ended the US military operation to “guide” commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz due to backlash from the US’s Gulf Arab allies.The report said that the abrupt reversal came after Saudi Arabia was caught off guard by Trump’s announcement of what he dubbed “Project Freedom,” and Riyadh informed the US that it would not allow the US military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.Israel’s i24 reported on Thursday, citing Gulf sources, that Saudi Arabia would restrict US military access until the US “provides proper protection” from Iranian attacks. During the short-lived Project Freedom, the UAE came under missile and drone attacks, and the US downplayed the attacks and didn’t respond.The Wall Street Journal reported later on Thursday that both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restricted US access due to the US downplaying the attacks on the UAE, but that the Gulf countries have since reversed the restrictions and the US may restart Project Freedom.For its part, Iran’s military denied responsibility for the attacks in the UAE, which hit oil infrastructure, but sources told Iranian media that they were retaliation for the US launching the new military operation.The NBC report said that a phone call between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue of Riyadh’s restrictions on US military access. It also said that the US spoke with Qatar and Oman only after Trump announced the military operation.“The problem with that premise is that things are happening quickly in real time,” a Saudi source told NBC when asked if the announcement of Project Freedom took Riyadh by surprise. A White House official appeared to deny the report, insisting that “regional allies were notified in advance.”
Rubio Claims the US Is Now Engaged in a 'Defensive Operation' Against Iran - Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed at a White House press briefing on Tuesday that the US is now engaged in a “defensive operation” against Iran as the Trump administration is attempting to reframe the war that the US and Israel launched against the Islamic Republic on February 28.“Now, what’s really important for you to report and for everyone to understand is this is not an offensive operation. This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple. There’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first,” Rubio told reporters.He also declared that Operation Epic Fury, the code name the US gave to the war, is over, and that the US is now on to “Project Freedom,” referring to the US military operation to “guide” ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, though President Trump announced later in the day that the operation has been “paused.”A source close to President Trump made clear in comments to Axios that one purpose of Project Freedom was to make it appear that Iran is the aggressor, even though all of the events in the Strait of Hormuz have been a result of the war that was started by the US and Israel.The source told Axios that Project Freedom was the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians” and that the “humanitarian” mission meant that if “the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act.”Rubio’s comments are also part of the Trump administration’s maneuvering around the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which was an attempt to rein in the Executive Branch’s disregard of the Constitution’s requirement that Congress has the sole power to declare war. The law doesn’t supersede the Constitution but includes a 60-day deadline to end unauthorized military action, which has been interpreted to give the president 60 days to wage war without congressional authorization.The War Powers deadline expired on Friday, and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made the novel claim that the clock stops if there is a ceasefire, though US forces are still clearly engaged in hostilities against Iran since the US is enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports. Rubio said at the press conference that the War Powers Resolution was “unconstitutional” but that the administration reported to Congress under the law to “keep a good relationship” with the legislative branch.Rubio also said during the briefing that the goal of the US military operation was to get the Strait of Hormuz back to the “way it was” before the US and Israel launched the war, acknowledging that the US objective was to reverse the consequences of the conflict it started. “But our preference is for these straits to be opened to the way they’re supposed to be open, back to the way it was. Anyone can use it, no mines in the water. Nobody paying tolls. That’s what we have to get back to and that’s the goal here,” he said.
Exclusive: Iran launches new maritime mechanism for vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz - Iran has officially launched a new mechanism for governing maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Press TV has learned. Under the newly implemented system, all vessels intending to transit the Strait will receive an email from the official address info@PGSA.ir outlining the rules and regulations for passage. Ships are required to adjust their operations according to this framework and obtain a transit permit before crossing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoints. The initiative, described as a sovereign governance system, is now operational in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of all internationally traded oil passes. Iranian armed forces have placed the Strait of Hormuz under strict control, blocking all ships associated with the US and Israel following the launch of their war of aggression against the Islamic Republic on February 28. Tehran had signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait after the US and Israel agreed to include Lebanon in a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire agreement that helped halt the aggression against Iran. However, Iranian authorities declared the waterway closed again as Washington and Tel Aviv continued violating the terms of the ceasefire. A draft law now advancing in Iran's Parliament would impose a total ban on any ships associated with Israel, while vessels linked to the US and other hostile countries would face severe restrictions. The legislation also establishes a tolling system for the passage of non-hostile vessels. Tensions have escalated sharply in recent days after the United States launched an operation on Sunday aimed at breaking Iran’s control over the Strait. Iranian forces have repeatedly warned US warships against approaching the strategic waterway.
'Hasty' Action: Iran Says US Strike Killed Five Civilians in Strait of Hormuz - Palestine Chronicle - A military source quoted by Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday that US forces attacked two small civilian cargo vessels traveling from Khasab on Oman’s coast toward Iran. According to the source, the attack killed five civilians aboard the boats. “It was determined that the US aggression forces had attacked two small boats carrying people’s cargo that were moving from Khasab on the coasts of Oman towards the coasts of Iran,” the source said. The official denied US claims that six Iranian speedboats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been targeted, insisting that no IRGC combat vessels were hit. The source described the incident as a “hasty” action motivated by US fears regarding Iranian fast-boat operations in the Strait. US Central Command claimed earlier that American helicopters destroyed “Iranian small boats threatening commercial shipping” during operations aimed at securing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also accused Iran of opening fire on US warships and commercial vessels on Monday. The competing narratives emerged as maritime tensions continue escalating following the US-Israeli war on Iran and Washington’s naval operations in Gulf waters. The incident coincided with the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a new maritime initiative called ‘Project Freedom’, aimed at escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that new maritime regulations now govern passage through the Strait, insisting that non-hostile commercial vessels may transit safely, while vessels linked to hostile activity are prohibited. Tehran also says prior coordination with Iranian authorities is required to guarantee safe passage and prevent what it describes as military exploitation of the waterway. Iranian sources also claimed that a US frigate approaching the Strait near the port of Jask ignored repeated Iranian warnings and was later struck by two missiles. According to Iranian reports, the vessel was forced to retreat after sustaining damage. Regional tensions have remained high since the outbreak of war between the US, Israel, and Iran in late February, despite a ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation on April 8.
Algorithm of war: How Palantir became Pentagons indispensable AI arsenal in wars abroad -- In the landscape of modern warfare, as military pundits acknowledge, the most dangerous weapon is increasingly not a bullet or a drone, but an algorithm. Palantir Technologies, a data analytics giant founded with the idealistic goal of "saving the West," has evolved into the central nervous system for US military operations and global surveillance. We examine the duality of Palantir as a private corporate entity that is deeply embedded in state violence, by looking into its financial relationships (specifically a landmark $10 billion Army contract), its role in algorithmic warfare in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran (Operation Epic Fury), the "dual-use pipeline" that brings military-grade surveillance to domestic policing, and the company's hidden infrastructure alliances with Microsoft and Airbus. Palantir represents a paradigm shift: an era in which private tech firms hold operational control over targeting and intelligence, creating a "private-sector imperial security complex" that operates with limited oversight and profound ethical consequences. This explains the unprecedented Iranian response – designating Palantir as a legitimate military target – as a warning to the unaccountable algorithm-driven warfare industry. When Palantir CEO Alex Karp recently testified in a legal deposition, he offered a chillingly blunt statement about his company's business model: "Our product is used to kill people." This phrase cuts through all corporate jargon about "data fusion" and "AI integration" to reveal the raw reality of Palantir's function. Unlike traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin or Raytheon, who build physical tanks or missiles, Palantir builds the software that tells those weapons where to go and who to destroy. Founded in 2003 with funding from the CIA's venture capital arm, In-Q-Tel, Palantir spent two decades operating in the shadows of the intelligence community. However, the current AI revolution and the shifting nature of global tensions have pushed Palantir to the forefront of American military strategy. We look at the hidden mechanisms of this corporation – a company that has successfully blurred the lines between military targeting, national surveillance, and private profit. To understand Palantir's involvement in America's wars abroad, including against the Islamic Republic of Iran, one must first understand the scale of its financial incentives. In August 2025, the US Army awarded Palantir a massive "Enterprise Agreement" worth up to $10 billion over ten years. This deal consolidated 75 smaller contracts into a single stream, effectively making Palantir the default software vendor for the Army's digital infrastructure. The Army's Chief Information Officer, Leo Garciga, said it was about "modernizing our capabilities," but the scale reveals a dependency: the military cannot fight without Palantir's operating system. The financial results of this dependency are staggering. In Q3 2025, Palantir reported revenues of $1.18 billion, a 63% increase year-over-year. The US government segment alone generated $486 million, growing 52% annually. The company boasts a "Rule of 40" score of 114% (a metric balancing growth and profit), one of the highest in software history, driven almost entirely by the urgency of defense spending. This revenue is not limited to the US Army. Recent disclosures show a $446 million contract with the Ned as a military target due to its algorithmic role in warfare. Palantir, which once operated behind the scenes of war, has now become part of the battlefield itself. Palantir's true power is realized on the battlefield, where it has moved from a support role to an active combatant in the decision-making cycle. The genocidal war on Gaza has served as a horrific proving ground for Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). Reports indicate that the Israeli regime force used Palantir's software to integrate data from Unit 8200 (Israel's NSA equivalent) with drone feeds and surveillance data. Human rights groups and analysts argue that this AI-driven targeting lowered the threshold for engagement, reducing human life to statistical data points. As noted by the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies, Palestine became an "AI-supported war laboratory" where every strike tested algorithmic models for efficiency, often with devastating civilian casualties. Palantir exhibits a striking moral duality depending on the client. In Ukraine, Palantir is framed as a force for democratic defense. CEO Alex Karp has openly boasted that his software reduces the "targeting cycle to minutes," allowing Ukrainian forces to identify and destroy Russian artillery positions faster than traditional methods. While Western media frames the Ukraine work as "resistance" and the Gaza work as "controversial," the underlying technology is identical. The same "kill chain" logic that takes out a Russian tank can just as easily target an apartment building in Gaza. This exposes the relativism of tech ethics: the software does not distinguish between a "good" war and a "bad" war; it only optimizes destruction. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched an unprovoked military aggression against the Islamic Republic, codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" against Iran. This operation, dubbed by the media as the "first AI war," marked a critical turning point in Palantir's role. Palantir's Maven Smart System, integrated with the Claude language model from Anthropic, was deployed as the primary decision-making system for US Central Command (CENTCOM). According to reports from the Washington Post, before the bombing began, the Maven system had analyzed thousands of satellite images and drone videos, preparing over 1,000 attack plans for commanders. In the first 12 hours, the US military conducted nearly 900 strikes; within 10 days, the number of strikes exceeded 5,500. A report from The Times revealed that during the invasion of Iraq, the US Army needed a 2,000-person intelligence team to perform ground target identification. In Operation Epic Fury, the same workload was accomplished by only 20 soldiers using Palantir's software. The Maven system reduced target identification time from several hours to less than one minute. Professor Elke Schwarz, speaking with France 24, analyzed that in the first 24 hours in the war against Iran, the US military launched approximately 41 missiles per hour, making meaningful human oversight practically impossible. The bombing of the Minab girls' elementary school in southern Iran, which killed at least 168 children, raised the question of whether AI had identified that target. Palantir insists that "a human is always in the decision-making loop," but observers note that this "human in the loop" has become a ceremonial rubber stamp. On March 31, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) published an unprecedented list of 18 American technology companies, including Palantir, declaring their facilities in West Asia as "legitimate targets." Iran said these companies' technology had been used to attack Iran. For the first time in history, a technology giant was formally designated as a military target due to its algorithmic role in warfare. Palantir, which once operated behind the scenes of war, has now effectively become part of the battlefield itself, directly complicit in the unprovoked and illegal aggression. One of the most alarming disclosures regarding Palantir is the "war-to-homeland" pipeline. Technologies perfected on battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan are being repackaged for domestic law enforcement and immigration enforcement. Palantir's flagship software, Gotham (named after the all-seeing stone in The Lord of the Rings), was designed to predict IED attacks in Afghanistan. Today, it is used by hundreds of police departments across the United States, allowing officers to scrape massive datasets of license plate records, utility bills, and social media to build intelligence dossiers on civilians. This surveillance apparatus has been weaponized against immigrant communities. In 2025, Palantir secured a $30 million contract with ICE and developed a tool called ELITE, which reportedly mines Medicaid and other public welfare databases to identify "high potential" targets for arrest. Reports suggest that the algorithm flags specific addresses and individuals, effectively turning social safety nets into deportation dragnets. The core danger of Palantir lies in the "black box" nature of its operations. When the US military uses the Maven Smart System to identify targets in West Asia, or when ICE uses it to flag a family for deportation, the software provides a recommendation. However, due to the proprietary nature of the code, it is often impossible to audit why the AI flagged a specific individual or coordinate. Critics fear that if a confidence threshold is met, the system may authorize lethal action without sufficient human oversight. Furthermore, the Trump administration's push for data sharing across federal agencies has positioned Palantir as the primary architect of a centralized national database. By integrating CIA, NSA, FBI, and DHS data, Palantir holds the keys to the "digital panopticon." President Trump himself praised Palantir, stating, "Palantir has proven to be very capable and well-equipped for combat. Just ask our enemies." This political endorsement cements Palantir's status as a protected entity, immune to the privacy scrutiny faced by other big tech firms. While it claims to serve Western democratic values, its shareholder letters reportedly list active combat zones like Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran as "center elements of the AI-based growth story." This mercenary logic – profiting from the duration of war, not just the outcome – raises questions about Palantir's incentive to push for peace. Palantir is not an isolated actor. It has woven itself into the fabric of global corporate and military infrastructure through strategic alliances that extend its reach far beyond direct government contracts. The three critical dimensions of this hidden empire include: One of the most dangerous developments is the strategic integration between Palantir and Microsoft. The US Army uses Palantir's Army Vantage platform, which is now being integrated with Microsoft's commercial tool Power BI – a standard dashboard and visualization software used by millions of business analysts worldwide. Ordinary soldiers can now visualize ultra-sensitive battlefield data (including enemy positions and targeting coordinates) directly within Power BI, the same tool a sales manager uses to forecast quarterly revenue. The normalization of algorithmic death: When an intelligence officer plans a missile strike using the interface that a marketing executive uses to track customer behavior, the ethical and professional boundaries of warfare collapse. This "democratization of killing" transforms lethal technology into a mundane "office tool." The consequence: A junior officer with minimal training can now generate kill chains with the same effort as creating a pie chart. The banality of the interface masks the horror of the outcome.If the algorithm of war is not regulated through democratic and legal means, we will enter a world where private algorithms are targeted by state missiles, where data centers become battlefields, and where the very notion of civilian infrastructure in the tech sector is permanently destroyed. Palantir has not only privatized war; it has, through its own illegal and unregulated actions, made the entire technology sector a legitimate target in future conflicts. Palantir is not merely a contractor; it is complicit in US wars and war crimes. By embedding its AI deep within the "kill chain" of the US military and its allies, and by weaving itself into the global infrastructure of Microsoft and Airbus, Palantir has achieved a level of influence previously reserved for nation-states. The company's trajectory – from the CIA to Iraq, from Ukraine to Gaza, from Iran to the streets of America – reveals a complete fusion of state power and private software. The world is witnessing the privatization of warfare and surveillance, and now, the first violent backlash against it. When a publicly traded company, driven by shareholder value, controls the algorithms that decide who lives and who dies, the social contract is broken. The "black box" of Palantir's code must be opened to public scrutiny. If we fail to regulate the algorithm of war, we risk sleepwalking into a world where violence is automated, efficient, utterly unaccountable – and where the response to that violence is the physical destruction of the digital infrastructure that powers modern life.
US-Israeli attacks on civilians, children amount to ‘war crimes’: Iran rights official - The secretary of Iran’s High Council for Human Rights says the US-Israeli attacks on hospitals, civilians, and children during their 40-day war of aggression constitute a “gross violation” of the Geneva Conventions and amount to “war crimes.” Speaking to the media on Wednesday, Naser Seraj detailed a range of human rights violations committed against the Iranian people during a joint US-Israeli military aggression that began on February 28 and continued until a ceasefire agreement in mid-April 2026. Seraj said the targeting and assassination of the highest political and religious authority of an independent sovereign state is a premeditated, extrajudicial assassination and a clear instance of the willful killing of civilians. The US-Israeli aggression began on February 28 with airstrikes that assassinated senior Iranian officials and commanders, including Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. In response, Iranian armed forces launched daily missile and drone operations targeting locations in the Israeli-occupied territories and US military bases and assets across the region. Seraj specifically condemned the deliberate bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh School in Minab, which was filled with innocent students. He stated that this constitutes a “war crime” under the Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols. “The principle of distinction has been clearly violated here, and no military necessity can justify the killing of children,” Seraj said. Seraj asserted that the silence of international bodies regarding this war crime proves that for Western claimants, “children’s rights” are a political tool to pressure Iran rather than a fundamental value. “If the bombing of the Minab school is not a violation of children’s rights, then the concept has been rendered utterly meaningless,” he said. Regarding attacks on hospitals, including Tehran’s Children’s Hospital and Khatam al-Anbiya Hospital, Seraj said these constitute a “gross violation” of the Geneva Conventions and are war crimes. He noted that at the same time, the West focuses on the alleged “lack of medical access for political prisoners” in Iran, a contradiction that he said clearly demonstrates double standards. If concern for the right to health were genuine, he argued, the physical destruction of hospitals upon which all citizens, including any potential prisoners, depend would represent the greatest deprivation of medical care. Seraj also addressed the intentional killing of hundreds of civilians during the war. He criticized Western human rights bodies for focusing on death sentences in Iran while remaining silent about the systematic killing of civilians by US and Israeli forces, calling it “blatant discrimination and politicization” in the international human rights system. According to the top rights official, the UN Security Council’s inability to pass an immediate ceasefire resolution due to the veto power of one permanent member reveals a fatal structural flaw in the UN’s collective security system.
From debris to acid rain: The environmental cost of US-Israeli ecocidal war on Iran -- Following the launch of the war imposed by Israel and the United States against Iran on February 28, numerous civilian targets across the country were struck, causing extensive environmental damage, condemned as ecocide in many cases. Among these attacks, the targeting of oil storage facilities in various parts of Tehran on the ninth day of the war stands out as one of the most blatant examples of this approach. The aggressive strikes not only caused significant material destruction but also triggered the widespread release of environmental pollutants across urban areas, leaving serious consequences for public health and environmental quality. According to available reports, on March 8, several fuel-related and oil storage targets in Tehran and Alborz provinces were hit. Accounts point to multiple storage depots and at least one oil transfer and logistics center being targeted, including sites in the northern, southern, and western parts of Tehran, as well as a facility in Karaj. A review of local media reports suggests that four primary targets were struck: oil facilities in Kouhak, Fardis, Shahran, and Shahr-e Rey. The powerful explosions of fuel tanks caused widespread destruction in the surrounding areas. One of the most striking cases was the destruction of a dialysis treatment center in Fardis on the outskirts of Tehran. Officials also reported damage to two schools and approximately 100 residential units. In addition to human casualties, including six deaths and 21 injuries reported in Fardis alone, the immediate aftermath of the attacks involved massive fire and plumes of dense, dark smoke that blanketed parts of Tehran’s sky. Field reports and eyewitness accounts described suffocating air conditions, severe irritation of the eyes and throat, and the accumulation of soot and a black residue covering vehicles and urban surfaces. Visual evidence also indicated the leakage of petroleum products into streets—an issue of major environmental concern, as it signifies the direct transfer of hydrocarbons into surface drainage systems, urban soils, and potentially groundwater reserves through infiltration and rainfall runoff. This contamination is not confined to the immediate sites of the attacks; it can spread over wide distances, affecting surrounding regions and even distant cities. Media reported that the level of air pollution in Tehran following the bombardment was so severe that it extended to areas such as Garmsar and Eyvanki in Semnan Province—regions located nearly 100 kilometers away from the capital. The explosion of oil depots released vast quantities of toxic compounds, including hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides, into the atmosphere. These substances can combine with atmospheric moisture and form highly acidic precipitation. Acid rain of this nature poses serious risks, including chemical burns to the skin and significant respiratory damage. The air quality in Tehran deteriorated so drastically after the attacks and subsequent fires that the city council urged residents to wear multilayered masks and to remain cautious about the dangers of acid rain. The Ministry of Health similarly advised individuals with respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, as well as pregnant women, to use protective masks such as N95, FFP2, or FFP3 when going outdoors. In addition, the Iranian Red Crescent issued an advisory outlining six critical recommendations: avoid leaving home immediately after acid rainfall due to lingering acidic vapors; refrain from using evaporative coolers; protect unpackaged food items from exposure; regularly cleanse respiratory pathways; replace filters in water purification systems; and avoid using windshield wipers without water to prevent spreading acidic residues. Such urgent and detailed guidelines from official bodies underscored the severity and potentially lethal nature of the environmental conditions created by these attacks. Fine particulate matter and irritant gases can exacerbate asthma, bronchitis, and acute respiratory symptoms, with particularly severe effects on vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with preexisting health conditions. Microscopic particles, including PM2.5 and even smaller fractions, can penetrate deep into the lungs and, in some cases, enter the bloodstream. As a result, the health risks associated with these attacks may surpass even the immediate physical dangers posed by explosions, highlighting the profound and often overlooked impact of environmental warfare on civilian populations. Iranian environmental authorities have strongly condemned these actions. Shina Ansari, the head of the Department of Environment, described the attacks as a clear violation of international norms, emphasizing that targeting environmentally sensitive infrastructure in densely populated urban areas is unjustifiable. Such acts, Ansari stated, "constitute a clear example of an environmental crime - ecocide." A recent report by Iran’s environmental authorities on the “Ramadan War” provides further insight into the scale of the damage. According to the report, the total volume of petroleum products that burned in just three oil storage complexes in Shahran, Shahr-e Rey, and Kouhak exceeded 360,000 cubic meters. The resulting emissions were estimated to be nearly one million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Experts also estimate that approximately 4,000 tons of aromatic compounds and volatile organic compounds, substances known to pose serious threats to environmental and human health, were released during these attacks. Additionally, strikes on fuel depots in Fardis alone resulted in the emission of more than 53,000 tons of carbon dioxide and approximately 220 tons of aromatic compounds. The environmental consequences of such incidents are not limited to the immediate aftermath, according to several environmental studies. One of the most pressing challenges associated with explosions in fuel storage facilities is their long-term impact on surrounding ecosystems. Massive quantities of toxic gases, particulate matter, and chemical residues are released into the air, rapidly degrading air quality to hazardous levels. The combustion of petroleum and its derivatives produces a range of harmful substances, including sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and soot. These compounds are highly damaging to both human health and ecological systems. When combined with atmospheric moisture, they can return to the surface as acid rain, contaminating soil, water resources, and agricultural products. The infiltration of petroleum products and combustion byproducts into soil leads to long-term contamination and reduced soil fertility. If these pollutants reach groundwater aquifers, they can jeopardize access to safe drinking water for entire communities. Many of the released compounds are also carcinogenic, posing long-term health risks to exposed populations. In the short term, air pollution contributes to increased rates of respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular conditions, and skin sensitivities. Over the long term, it may lead to chronic diseases and broader public health crises.
Trump takes sharp turn toward ending Iran war - President Trump announced a sudden end to his operation to break Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday night, hours before reports emerged that Washington and Tehran are closing in on a framework of a deal to end the war. The president again threatened to resume bombing if the deal falls through, but Trump’s moves underline his desire for an off-ramp as economic pain and political pressure mount. According to Axios, the latest version of a one-page memorandum of understanding between the two sides would create a 30-day window to negotiate a more detailed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, throttle Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions. Both sides would ease their blockades on shipping through the strait during that period. “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote in a social media post on Wednesday morning. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” Hein Goemans, a political science professor at the University of Rochester who specializes in war termination, was skeptical that either side was willing to make the necessary concessions to reach a long-term peace deal. And whatever commitments Iran makes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, all sides now recognize its military can shut it down again, wreaking havoc on global energy markets. “They can say whatever they want about the Strait of Hormuz, but that ship has sailed. It is, surprisingly, a diplomatic victory for Iran — a military victory for the United States, but a diplomatic victory for Iran,” he said. On the nuclear negotiations, a one-page memo will leave crucial details to be decided. “At minimum, the Iranians are thinking no deal with America is credible. America can change its mind overnight and then start bombing us even in the middle of talking. So any Iranian leader will know that. So they will, they will hedge on some form,” Goemans said. The contours of the nuclear agreement, according to officials who spoke to Axios, closely resemble the deal initially hammered out by the Obama administration that Trump scrapped during his first term, with a 10-15 year moratorium on uranium enrichment. Trump is likely to face significant pushback from Israel and Iran hawks within his own party if he drops sanctions on Iran or unfreezes its assets in exchange for reopening the strait without firm commitments on ending its nuclear enrichment and handing over its cache of weapons-grade enriched uranium. “You can’t use the same leverage twice. Once you spend it on one account, you can’t spend it on another one,” Goemans said. Talks also could reach no consensus or fall apart at the last minute, as they have on several occasions in the past few months. After gathering for a marathon 21 hours of discussions in Islamabad, Pakistan, last month, negotiators from Washington and Tehran failed to come to an agreement. Vice President Vance, who led the American team, said significant differences remained in the quest for a peace deal. Among the biggest sticking points is the U.S. demand that Iran give up its nuclear program. Roughly a week later, Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad was delayed before being postponed indefinitely after Iran refused to participate in the next round of peace talks. Should that happen again, the president appears prepared to restart attacks on Tehran. Axios last week reported that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine and U.S. Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper briefed Trump on options for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes against Iran. But the apparent movement toward talks was enough to prompt Trump to declare “Project Freedom” — the U.S. effort to guide hundreds of stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz — on hold while Washington looks to finalize a deal with Tehran. The president announced the decision in a social media post Tuesday evening, saying he based the move “on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.”
Trump threatens Iran with more bombing if it doesn’t agree to peace deal - President Trump on Wednesday threatened Iran with “higher level and intensity” attacks if the country does not agree to a peace deal. “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” he said. The U.S. believes it’s nearing an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum that would end the war and set a framework for nuclear talks, Axios reported Wednesday. It is being negotiated between special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, along with Iranian officials through direct talks and with mediators. Trump’s comments come less than a day after he said he was pausing operation “Project Freedom” that aimed to secure the Strait of Hormuz. That operation involved the U.S. guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz over Iranian objections, and led to fire between the two countries on Monday. Trump wrote Tuesday that the decision was “based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries” that “while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” Trump said the U.S. blockade of ships to and from Iran through the strait would continue. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters earlier Tuesday at the press briefing that Operation Epic Fury is over and was replaced by “Project Freedom.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is still holding, despite the volleys between the sides this week.
Trump Threatens Iran With Bombing at 'Much Higher Level' If It Doesn't Agree to US Deal - --President Trump on Wednesday threatened Iran with bombing at “a much higher level” than what the US and Israel previously unleashed on the country if it didn’t agree to unspecified US demands. Trump’s threat, issued on Truth Social, came after he announced the US was pausing a military operation to “guide” ships out of the Strait of Hormuz but would continue to enforce the blockade of Iranian ports.“Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” the president said. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he added.Also on Wednesday, Axios reported progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, saying that an agreement on a one-page, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding could be reached soon, but Iranian officials were quick to reject it.Iran’s Fars news agency called the report “fabricated” and said it was intended to calm global markets and drive down oil prices. Sources told the outlet that Iran has yet to respond to the US’s latest proposal, which followed Iran’s submission of a 14-point plan to end the conflict late last week.According to Drop Site News, the Iranian proposal focuses on bringing a permanent end to most hostilities in the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel continues heavy bombings in violation of a ceasefire it agreed to. The proposal also calls for an immediate end to the US blockade of Iran and suggests a 30-day period for negotiating an end to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz; then Iran would agree to enter negotiations on the future of its nuclear program.Iran’s goals include getting US sanctions lifted, unfreezing billions in frozen Iranian assets, and guarantees that it won’t be attacked by the US and Israel again. According to the Axios report, the US and Iran are negotiating how long a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program would last, and once it ends, Tehran will resume enrichment at the 3.67% level.The Axios report said that Iran proposed a five-year moratorium while the US proposed 20 years, though Trump has previously denied that. Allowing any Iranian uranium enrichment would mark a significant concession from the Trump administration.Negotiations continue to be indirect through Pakistan, as Iran has maintained that it won’t enter direct talks until the US lifts the blockade. But while diplomacy does appear to be taking place, Iranian officials are also preparing for the possibility of the US restarting the bombing campaign since Iran was attacked twice before while engaged in negotiations with the US.
Iran reviews proposal to end war as Trump warns of more bombs : Iran is assessing the Trump administration's latest proposal to end the war, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said Wednesday.Iran will relate its response to mediating country Pakistan, Baqaei told Iran's ISNA news agency. NPR has not confirmed the details of the proposal, and the White House has not made them public. ISNA said Iran's negotiators are discussing the end of the war, not the nuclear issue, which would come at a later stage of negotiations. The news outlet dismissed U.S. news reports about a memorandum of understanding as "media speculation."The comments came after President Trump issued a mixed message about the status of diplomacy with Iran. It follows Trump's sudden suspension Tuesday of a U.S. military effort to help merchant vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz, while continuing a U.S. naval blockade on Iran's ports."Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran," Trump wrote online Wednesday morning. "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."The Strait of Hormuz — an important passageway for oil, fertilizer and other goods — has been effectively closed since the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran on Feb. 28, disrupting global energy supplies and pushing up fuel prices. Iran has attacked commercial ships that try to transit the strait without its approval. The U.S. has imposed its naval blockade since April 13. U.S. Central Command said that, as of Wednesday, its blockade had turned around 52 vessels.Central Command said Wednesday that U.S. forces disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker heading toward an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. It said a U.S. fighter jet fired several rounds at the vessel's rudder, after its crew ignored "multiple warnings" that it was violating the U.S. blockade.The ship, Central Command added, was "no longer transiting to Iran," noting that "CENTCOM forces continue to act deliberately and professionally to ensure compliance."
Pakistan says it's hopeful a U.S.-Iran deal can happen soon - Pakistan is hopeful its mediation efforts between the United States and Iran will soon reach a breakthrough after Iran said it was reviewing the Trump administration's latest proposal. "Our hope and expectation is for an agreement sooner rather than later," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told NPR on Thursday. NPR has not confirmed the details of the U.S. proposal, and the White House has not made them public. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told the country's ISNA news agency on Wednesday, "The American plan and proposal is still being reviewed by Iran, and after summing up its points of view, Iran will convey its views to the Pakistani side." The semiofficial news agency said Iran's negotiators were discussing an end of the war — not the nuclear issue, which would come at a later stage of negotiations. ISNA dismissed U.S. news reports about details of a memorandum of understanding as "media speculation." Meanwhile, France moved its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Red Sea. French President Emmanuel Macron announced the move Wednesday, following a call with Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian. He said in an online message the carrier's "forward deployment" is part of a multinational mission established by France and Britain last month that the countries' leaders said at the time was aimed at protecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Macron said the mission "can help restore confidence among shipowners and insurers" and that it would "remain distinct from the warring parties." He said he discussed the matter with Iran's president and also plans to with Trump, and urged both sides to lift their blockades of the strait "without delay and without conditions." "A return to calm in the Strait will help advance negotiations regarding nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, and the regional situation," Macron said. "The Europeans—upon whom the lifting of sanctions depends—will play their part in this process." The Strait of Hormuz — an important passageway for oil, fertilizer and other goods — has been effectively closed since the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran on Feb. 28, disrupting global energy supplies and pushing up fuel prices. Iran has attacked commercial ships that try to transit the strait without its approval. The U.S. has imposed its naval blockade since April 13. U.S. Central Command said that, as of Wednesday, its blockade its blockade had turned around 52 vessels.On Tuesday, Trump suspended a brief U.S. military effort to help merchant vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz, but kept in place a U.S. naval blockade on Iran's ports."Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran," Trump wrote online Wednesday morning. "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before." Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Wednesday said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be provided, but it was not immediately clear how much the move would reopen the shipping route. "With the end of the aggressors' threats and in light of new procedures, safe and sustainable transit through the strait will be facilitated," the Revolutionary Guard's navy command said in an online statement. It did not give details about the new terms.
'Insider trading': Oil and stocks jolt on news of US-Iran deal as some cry 'manipulation' - A report that Iran and the US were inching closer to a peace deal sent oil prices plunging and stock indexes soaring, as some traders claimed that the false starts were starting to smell of market manipulation.A report by Axios published on Wednesday said the two countries were closing in on “a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations”, amid the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent crude dropped from $108 per barrel to $97 after the report, before regaining some ground. The international benchmark was still down around seven percent at roughly $102 per barrel.Just 70 minutes before the Axios report dropped, nearly $920m was wagered on crude oil short positions, Unusual Whales posted on X. The social media account spotlights activity with hallmarks of potential insider trading.The holder of the short position would have gained an estimated $125m, Unusual Whales said.Oil sold off on the expectation that a peace deal would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where both Iran and the US are trying to enforce competing blockades, even as they abide by a fragile ceasefire.The bet ignited a firestorm on X among traders and financial commentators."Every major announcement in this war has been front-run by someone who knew it was coming. What kind of war is this? This is more like a trading desk with an army,” one person wrote on X."When is everyone going to start realizing that the manic on again off again war/peace rhetoric is really just insider trading? And sprinkle in some murder,” former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote on X.“Only a select few in the top tax bracket are benefiting from this, and the majority of you ain’t in it.” The sell-off in oil prices was accompanied by a broad rally in stock indexes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.5 percent while the S&P 500 jumped more than one percent.But traders clashed over whether investors should buy into a rally sparked by the Axios report, which was later followed by similar reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg. n”These fake timed peace deal reports by Axios with the selling and buying that accompanies them, followed by the president then doing the inverse and Iran saying it’s a lie has been happening for weeks now,” one user wrote on X.“I’ve never seen such in your face insider trading. Market is a casino,” they added.Others, however, said that investors should buy into the leaked reports of a deal. Trump has long heralded the stock market as a sign of his success.One person shared a meme on X with a mother and her children in a poverty-stricken kitchen backdrop:“Mom, how did we get so poor?” the children ask. “Your dad fought Taco and shorted into the daily Axios pump,” the mother replied, using an acronym to describe Trump’s pattern of reversing policy decisions that cause equity prices to go down. Taco was coined by a Financial Times columnist for “Trump Always Chicken’s Out”. Axios reported previously that Iran and the US were inching closer to a nuclear deal just before the US and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic on 28 February.However, the news site has also published reports that closely tracked with the Trump administration’s diplomacy.Some noted that the reports of de-escalation appeared to coincide with rising 10-year bond yields.“Professor, don’t you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10 [year] UST [US Treasury] yield breaks 4.4 percent on the upside?” Luke Gromen, the founder of FFTT, LLC, an economic research firm focused on global macro trends, wrote on X.And replying to the rhetorical question, he said: "Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all.”Rising bond yields make US government borrowing more expensive and filter down into consumer loans, such as mortgages. Bond yields rise when prices fall.Yields have spiked amid the war on Iran due to concerns that rising oil prices will drive inflation.
Fact check: Trump posts wildly deceptive chart on oil prices - Oil prices are higher now than they were when President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. But Trump posted a wildly deceptive chart on Friday that wrongly suggests oil prices are lower than they were upon predecessor Joe Biden’s departure. The text at the top of the chart claims, “Oil is Down 25% or $30 Per Barrel Since Sleepy Joe.” The chart has two bars: a blue bar labeled “Biden $120” and a much smaller green bar reading “Trump $90.” An arrow points downward from the “Biden” bar toward the “Trump” bar. Here’s the big problem. The price of oil wasn’t anywhere close to $120 when Biden left office.US crude oil futures actually closed below $80 per barrel on January 20, 2025, the day of Trump’s second inauguration, and on January 17, 2025, the last full trading day under Biden. By contrast, after a spike in oil prices triggered by the war Trump launched against Iran in late February, US crude was trading above $94 per barrel most of Friday morning. So where did Trump’s chart get its key “$120” figure? It appears that’s a reference to the approximate peak in US crude closing prices under Biden. But that peak came in 2022, more than two years before Trump returned to office, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The chart fails to disclose the fact that the “$120” figure is from 2022. Worse, it actively misleads readers with the title claim that “Oil is Down 25% or $30 Per Barrel Since Sleepy Joe,” since the phrase “Since Sleepy Joe” creates the impression that a decline from $120 per barrel has occurred since Biden left the White House. In reality, US crude had already declined to about $80 per barrel by the end of 2022, Pavel Molchanov, an investment strategist focusing on commodities at the investment firm Raymond James, noted in a Friday email.Former Biden administration economic spokesperson Jesse Lee posted on X on Friday in response to the chart: “It just bears repeating: the spike in oil prices under Biden (long gone by when Trump took office) was due to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The spike under Trump was due to his own war of choice.”US crude prices declined early during the second Trump presidency, and they were below $60 for much of January 2026. (Molchanov emphasized that, in general, “Oil prices reflect global supply/demand fundamentals, which are much broader than who happens to be in the White House at any given time.”) But they jumped after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, briefly exceeding $110 per barrel in early April before declining, in fits and starts, to their Friday level.While trying to promote his economic record, Trump has repeatedly described high 2022 prices and inflation readings as if they were the figures Biden handed to him in 2025 — thus implicitly taking credit for the progress of the final two-plus years of Biden’s four-year term.For example, Trump has repeatedly said he “inherited” the worst inflation in US history or the worst in more than four decades — not mentioning that the inflation rate in the month he took over from Biden, January 2025, was 3.0%, much lower than the 40-year high of 9.1% that was set in June 2022. (The most recent available rate, for March 2026, is 3.3%.)Trump has used a similar tactic when discussing gasoline prices. He has repeatedly said that gas topped $5 per gallon under Biden without mentioning that this peak, a AAA national average of about $5.02 per gallon, occurred in June 2022. The average had come down to about $3.12 per gallon on Trump’s inauguration day in January 2025; it had increased to $4.55 per gallon as of Friday.
US Official Says Iran Has 70% of Pre-War Missile Stockpile and Is Assembling New Ones --A US official has told The Washington Post that the US believes Iran maintains about 70% of its pre-war stockpile of missiles and 75% of its pre-war inventory of missile launchers, painting a starkly different picture of Iran’s military capabilities following the US-Israeli bombing campaign than what President Trump and his top officials have claimed.The official said that there was also evidence that Iran has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the US and Israel launched the war.Just a day earlier, President Trump claimed to reporters that Iran’s “missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”The report also noted that Iran has many more drones, which are much cheaper to make and can be manufactured in small warehouses that are easy to hide. Iran’s drone capability is also the primary way Tehran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.The Post report focused on a confidential CIA analysis that found Iran can survive the blockade for three or four months before facing more severe economic hardship, another assessment that goes against what the Trump administration has been saying publicly.
US CENTCOM Says It Attacked and Disabled an Iranian Oil Tanker in the Gulf of Oman - US Central Command said on Wednesday that its forces attacked and disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Hasna, in the Gulf of Oman, which it claimed was attempting to bypass the US blockade of Iranian ports.CENTCOM said that after issuing warnings to the ship, a US Navy F/A-18 fighter jet launched from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln fired on the vessel using its 20 mm cannon to disable its rudder. The command said that the ship is “no longer transiting to Iran.”The US attack comes a day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US is engaged in a “defensive operation” against Iran and that US forces would only shoot if they were shot at first.The attack also came after President Trump announced that the US military operation to “guide” commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, dubbed “Project Freedom,” was being paused after just two days.The incident marks at least the second time the US military fired on a civilian ship in the Gulf of Oman while enforcing the blockade. Last month, the US struck the engine room of an Iranian cargo ship before boarding it and seizing it. Discussing the attack over the weekend, Trump said the US was acting “like pirates,” affirming Iran’s characterization of the US blockade as piracy.During the short-lived “Project Freedom,” CENTCOM claimed it destroyed six Iranian “attack” boats, but Iran said no IRGC vessels were hit and that it found the US bombed two cargo boats and killed five civilians.
U.S. and Iran exchange fire near the Strait of Hormuz; Trump says ceasefire still holds - The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, adding new strain to the ceasefire and raising questions about negotiations to end the war. Hours later the United Arab Emirates, a key Gulf ally of the U.S., said it was responding to a missile and drone attack. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the attacks happened as three U.S. military ships were transiting through the strait. “There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers. They were completely destroyed along with numerous small boats,” he wrote. The attacks highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire in the area around the Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world’s oil used to pass through before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. No ships transited the strait Thursday, the second day in a row that the critical waterway has had no traffic at all, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. It’s also the first time since March 12-13 that there have been two back-to-back days without marine traffic. Trump said in an interview with ABC News on Thursday: “The ceasefire is going. It’s in effect.” He added, “It’s just a love tap.” Trump later told a group of reporters that peace talks with Iran were “going very well, but they have to understand if it doesn’t get signed, they’re going to have a lot of pain.” Trump said a proposal had been given to Iran that included an agreement that it would not have nuclear weapons and that it would give “the nuclear dust” to the U.S. “Yeah, they’ve agreed. But when they agree, it doesn’t mean much, because the next day they forget,” he said. Recommended
Live Updates: U.S. launches "self-defense strikes" on Iran, says warships came under fire in Strait of Hormuz -What to know about the Iran war:
- The U.S. Central Command said Thursday that American forces "responded with self-defense strikes" on Iranian targets after three Navy destroyers came under missile and drone fire, but were not struck. The U.S. military targeted two Iranian ports abutting the Strait of Hormuz, Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, multiple U.S. officials told CBS News.
- As Iran says it's reviewing the latest U.S. proposal to end the war, it's also attempting to formalize its control over the vital shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping intelligence firm Lloyd's List says the strait is now closed, as Iran says an agency it just created is in charge of clearing vessels for transit.
- President Trump said the war will be "over quickly" and insists it's going "unbelievably well." But he also warned Wednesday that if Iran rejects the U.S. offer, he could order "higher level" military strikes.
- Amid the diplomatic efforts, the price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, hovered at around $100 a barrel Thursday, down from where it was last week at $126 but still well above the roughly $70 it was before the war.
The United Arab Emirates reported early Friday morning local time that its air defense systems had been activated to respond to drones and missiles launched by Iran.The UAE's defense ministry said in a social media post that "sounds heard in various parts of the country are the result of the UAE air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones."The UAE's National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority cautioned residents to "remain in a safe place and follow the warnings and updates on official websites."President Trump told reporters late Thursday that a deal with Iran "might not happen, but it could happen any day.""I believe they want the deal more than I do," he said during a visit to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, where his administration is installing blue filament as part of a renovation project. Mr. Trump also addressed Iran's attacks on three U.S. Navy destroyers, which drew an American counterattack."They trifled with us today. We blew them away," he said. "They should not have done that today."Mr. Trump reiterated that the ceasefire is not over, in spite of Tuesday's exchange. "If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know. You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran," he said.CENTCOM said the Iranian military “launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats” at the vessels.“No U.S. assets were struck. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes. CENTCOM does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”The Iranian military said it fired at U.S. military ships only after the U.S. military violated the ceasefire and attacked an Iranian oil tanker.“The invading, terrorist and pirate U.S. military violated the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker moving from Iran’s coastal waters in the Jask area towards the Strait of Hormuz, as well as another vessel entering the Strait of Hormuz opposite the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates,” said the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, according to the semiofficial Mehr news agency.The spokesman also said the U.S. had carried out air attacks on “civilian areas” along Iran’s coast and Qeshm Island.Iran’s state-owned Press TV later reported that following the exchange of fire, the situation on Iran’s islands and in coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz was “back to normal now.”
US Bombs Iran's Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas - The US bombed Iranian ports on Thursday, an attack that will likely plunge the region back into full-scale war. Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin first reported that the US was behind strikes on a port in Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, and a naval target in Minab, where the US bombed an elementary school on February 28, an attack that killed 120 children. Iran’s military then released a statement saying that the US violated the ceasefire by attacking two commercial ships and bombing Iranian ports.“The aggressive, terrorist, and bandit American army violated the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker ship moving from Iranian coastal waters in the Jask region towards the Strait of Hormuz, as well as another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz, opposite the port of Fujairah in the UAE,” said a spokesman for the Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.“At the same time, they carried out aerial attacks on civilian areas in cooperation with some regional countries on the coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island,” the statement added. Iran said that its forces responded to the US attacks in the region by targeting US warships, and US Central Command released a statement that said three US Navy destroyers came under attack while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said that in response, it hit “Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces, including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes.”CENTCOM framed the strikes as launched in “self-defense,” and the US official speaking to Griffin said that the US bombing Iran doesn’t mean the ceasefire is over. The Trump administration has attempted to frame its recent military operations, which include a blockade of Iranian ports, as “defensive” even though it’s all part of the war of aggression that the US and Israel launched against Iran on February 28.The Iranian military said that its attacks on the US warships caused “significant damage,” but President Trump insisted in a post on Truth Social that the destroyers did not get hit.“Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers. They were completely destroyed along with numerous small boats, which are being used to take the place of their fully decapitated Navy,” the president wrote.“These boats went to the bottom of the Sea, quickly and efficiently. Missiles were shot at our Destroyers, and were easily knocked down. Likewise, drones came, and were incinerated while in the air. They dropped ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave!” he added.
IRGC Navy: Any attack on Iranian vessels will trigger heavy response against US bases The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has warned the United States and its allies, saying that any attack on Iranian tankers or commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf or beyond will trigger a heavy and decisive response targeting American military centers in the region and enemy ships. In a statement on Saturday evening, the IRGC Navy Command stressed Iran’s commitment to safeguarding its maritime interests and the safe passage of its legitimate commercial fleet amid escalating provocations by foreign forces in the strategic waters of the Strait of Hormuz. “Warning! Any attack on Iranian tankers and commercial vessels will result in a heavy attack against one of the American centers in the region and enemy ships,” the IRGC Navy Command stated, underscoring that the Islamic Republic will not tolerate threats to its vessels or disruption of its vital oil exports and trade routes. IRGC naval forces have demonstrated their resolve in recent days, repelling aggressive maneuvers by US destroyers that attempted to challenge Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Following US strikes on Iranian ships and tankers near Jask, the IRGC Navy launched a precise and extensive operation involving anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and high-explosive drones, inflicting significant damage on enemy assets and forcing the US vessels to flee the area. Iranian military sources have repeatedly highlighted that provocative US actions represent a dangerous disruption of regional maritime security. The IRGC Navy has emphasized that the only safe corridors for transit through the Strait of Hormuz are those designated by the Islamic Republic, with any deviation or hostile move met by a firm and decisive confrontation.
Missiles and drones locked on US targets: ‘Awaiting firing order,’ IRGC commander warns The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force has stated that Iran’s advanced missiles and aerospace drones are fully locked on American targets and enemy ships across the Persian Gulf region, with forces standing by for the final order to strike. “The missiles and aerospace drones are locked on the enemy and we are waiting for the firing order,” Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi said in a statement posted on social media on Saturday evening. The senior IRGC commander’s statement comes amid escalating US provocations in the Persian Gulf and sends a crystal-clear message that the Islamic Republic will not tolerate further American aggression. This firm warning follows the IRGC’s recent decisive response to hostile American actions. After US forces launched strikes on Iranian ships and tankers near Jask, the IRGC Navy swiftly mounted a precise and overwhelming counter-operation using anti-ship ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and high-explosive drones. The Iranian strikes inflicted heavy damage on enemy assets and forced the US vessels to flee the area in disarray. Iranian officials have condemned these reckless US maneuvers as a dangerous threat to regional maritime security and international navigation. The IRGC Navy has stressed that the only safe and authorized corridors for transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz are those designated by the Islamic Republic. Any deviation or hostile move by foreign forces will be met with firm, immediate, and decisive confrontation.
U.S. fires on and disables 2 more Iranian tankers as tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz (AP) — U.S. forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers on Friday after exchanging fire with Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, reported another Iranian missile and drone attack. The attacks cast more doubt on a tenuous month-old ceasefire that the United States has insisted is still in effect. Washington is awaiting an Iranian response to its latest proposal for a deal to end the war, reopen the strait and roll back Tehran's disputed nuclear program. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he hopes to receive "a serious offer" from Iran later Friday. The U.S. military said Friday that its forces had disabled two Iranian tankers that were trying to breach an American blockade of Iran's ports. Hours earlier, the military said it thwarted attacks on three Navy ships and struck Iranian military facilities in the strait. Iran has mostly blocked the critical waterway for global energy since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, causing a global spike in fuel prices and rattling world markets. The U.S. has imposed its own blockade of Iran's ports. The UAE's Defense Ministry meanwhile said three people were wounded after air defenses engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones launched by Iran. It was not clear if all were successfully intercepted. The U.S. military posted video of the two Iranian tankers as their smokestacks were struck by an American fighter jet on Friday. Earlier in the week, an American military jet shot out the rudder of a tanker the U.S. military said was attempting to breach its blockade. Late Thursday, the U.S. military said it thwarted Iranian attacks on three Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz and struck Iranian military facilities in response. It said no American ships were hit. "They threaten Americans, they are going to be blown up," Rubio told reporters Friday. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned what it called "hostile" U.S. military action, saying it violated the ceasefire. "Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X. A U.S. strike overnight killed at least one sailor and injured 10 others aboard a cargo vessel that caught fire, a news agency affiliated with Iran's judiciary reported. It was not clear if the ship was one of the two tankers the U.S. acknowledged striking. U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted the ceasefire is holding. He also has reiterated threats to resume full-scale bombing if Iran doesn't accept an agreement to reopen the strait and roll back its nuclear program. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country has been in contact with the U.S. and Iran "day and night" in an effort to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal. Satellite images reviewed by The Associated Press show what appears to be an oil slick in the Persian Gulf emanating from the western side of Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export terminal. Images taken Friday show the slick covering about 71 square kilometers (27 square miles) and appear to show oil still leaking from the terminal, said Ami Daniel, CEO of maritime intelligence firm Windward AI. Daniel estimated the equivalent of roughly 80,000 oil barrels has spilled from Kharg Island since the slick was first detected by satellite images Tuesday. It's unknown whether the spill was caused by a malfunction, an airstrike or something else. "This is the risk of fighting in an oil-rich area," said Daniel, adding that it's unlikely any cleanup efforts will be launched in Gulf waters that have become an active war zone. He said the spill appears to be spreading southwest and within the next two weeks could potentially reach the shores of the UAE, Qatar or Saudi Arabia.
Responding to Trump's Latest Attack, Pope Leo Says His Critics Should Speak 'Truthfully' - Pope Leo XIV on Tuesday responded to President Trump’s latest attack on him, saying that if someone criticizes him, they should “do so truthfully.” The comments came after President Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt that Pope Leo would “rather talk about the fact that it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon” and claimed that the US-born pontiff was “endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people.”Trump’s comments reflect a common criticism he makes of opponents of his war with Iran, even though there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current conflict that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon.In response, Leo pointed to the Vatican’s long-standing opposition to nuclear proliferation. “The mission of the Church is to proclaim the Gospel, to preach peace. If someone wants to criticize me for proclaiming the Gospel, let him do so truthfully,” the pope told reporters, according to Vatican News. “For years, the Church has spoken out against all nuclear weapons, so there is no doubt on that point. I simply hope to be listened to because of the value of the word of God,” Leo added.The exchange between Trump and Leo came ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to the Vatican, where he will meet with the pope on Thursday. One topic that’s expected to be discussed is Cuba, as the Trump administration is reportedly preparing for an attack on the country. Leo had previously expressed opposition to the US attack on Venezuela to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, Rubio defended Trump’s false claim about Leo. “I think what the president basically said is that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon because they would use it against places that have a lot of Catholics and Christians, and others for that matter,” he said.“[Trump] doesn’t understand why anybody, leave aside the pope … would think it’s a good idea for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon,” Rubio added.
Scott Bessent says 'help is on the way' on lowering gas prices - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that “help is on the way” when it comes to gas prices, with a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. nearing an average of $4.50. “Help is on the way as of today. The way to think about it is the market, because of the conflict around the strait, is in deficit about 10 million barrels a day, between 8 [million] and 10 million barrels a day right now,” Bessent said on Fox News’s “America’s Newsroom.” “So, every crew carrier that goes through has about 2 million barrels, so four or five crew carriers a day coming through, of the pent-up demand, we think they’re more than 150, 200 crew carriers that can come out. So, I think the market’s going to be very well supplied,” he added. The Iranian military has throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict, resulting in higher oil and gas prices in the U.S. and around the world. The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Monday was about $4.46, according to AAA, up from about $3.17 at this time last year. President Trump said Sunday the U.S. would help in freeing ships in the Strait of Hormuz. “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump said later in the day on Truth Social. U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said Monday that Iran had fired on U.S. warships and that six Iranian small boats were destroyed in retaliation. The U.S. military also said Monday that two cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Centcom confirmed the transit of the vessels, also claiming that Navy guided-missile destroyers were protecting vessels in the Persian Gulf after going through the strait.
That gas tax holiday is looking rosier - -Some governors are warming to the idea of a gasoline tax holiday as the Iran war enters its third month and prices at the pump climb toward $4.50 per gallon.Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced Tuesday that he would freeze the state’s gasoline tax, which was slated to increase in July, and issue an emergency order to cut the tax by 10 cents per gallon. The tax is currently 26.4 cents per gallon.The Democratic governor, a potential presidential candidate, blamed the Trump administration’s actions in Iran for rising prices, saying the president started a war “without thinking through the costs to the American people.”“They failed to address the basic question of how they would secure the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to the waterway critical to transporting roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. “They thought the war would be short, that the Iranian people would rise up. They were wrong, and now the American people are paying for it.”
Report: US To Close Military Base Meant to Oversee Gaza Ceasefire Deal That Israel Has Constantly Violated - The Trump administration is set to shutter a US-led military base in southern Israel meant to oversee the Gaza ceasefire deal, which Israel has constantly violated, according to a report from Reuters. The Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC) was established after the Gaza ceasefire deal was signed in early October 2025, and 200 US troops were initially deployed. Since then, the US has done and said nothing as Israel continued killing Palestinians, restricting aid, and taking additional territory in Gaza. Sources told Reuters that the CMCC’s responsibilities would be handed over to the International Stabilization Force (ISF), which was supposed to be established and deployed to Gaza under President Trump’s Gaza plan, though it’s unclear what that means since an international force to deploy to Gaza never actually materialized.The report said that under the US plan to shutter the CMCC, the US would reduce the number of troops at the outpost from 190 to 40 and wants civilian staff from other countries to fill the roles left vacant by US military personnel.It’s unclear what those roles entail since Israel has essentially torn up the ceasefire deal, and there’s been no progress in implementing Trump’s plan, as Hamas has maintained it will not discuss disarmament until the first phase of the deal is actually implemented. Diplomatic sources told Reuters that the CMCC never actually had the authority to enforce the ceasefire or ensure that enough aid was entering Gaza.Some US officials described the US plan as an overhaul of the CMCC, but diplomatic sources told Reuters that it will effectively shut down the base once the ISF takes over. The base will be rebranded as the International Gaza Support Center and will still be led by a US general, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, who was appointed by the White House as the head of the ISF.
Mamdani slams Israeli real estate event in NYC as 'effort to displace Palestinians' -- New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani on Wednesday slammed an Israeli real estate expo at a local synagogue one day earlier, which had been promoting homes and land for sale in the occupied West Bank. The United Nations maintains that the Israeli occupation since 1967 is illegal, and by extension, so are settlements constructed in the area. Population transfers are prohibited by the Geneva Conventions. "When we have a real estate expo that is promoting the sale of land, which includes the sale of land in occupied West Bank in settlements that are a violation of international law, that is something that I firmly disagree with," the mayor told reporters. "I also believe that many New Yorkers firmly disagree with [it] because it has been at the heart of an ongoing effort to displace Palestinians from their homes," he added. On Tuesday, hundreds of protesters convened by the group, Palestinian Assembly for Liberation (Pal-Awda), gathered near the Park East Synagogue to protest against the second such event at the site since November. Event organisers at the synagogue promoted properties in the settlements of Kfar Eldad and Karnei Shomron, as well as tax and mortgage advice for buyers. But protesters were kept a block away from the event by a heavy police presence and barricades. The New York Police Department (NYPD) was accused of having "violently kettled and barricaded pro-Palestine protesters while protecting Zionist counter-agitators," and also "pepper-sprayed demonstrators, and brutally grabbed and pushed those present", a statement sent to Middle East Eye by Pal-Awda on Wednesday said. Footage provided to MEE by the group shows a tense standoff between police and protesters after dark, with officers shouting at the protesters, who were pushing against the barricades, to move back. Mamdani told reporters that he has "made it clear time and time again that we in this city believe in the sacrosanct nature of the right to protest and also are committed to ensuring that any New Yorker can safely enter or exit from a house of worship", but had no criticism of police conduct.
‘Open Secret’: Lawmakers Urge Trump to Recognize Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal - A group of House Democrats is pressing the Trump administration to publicly acknowledge Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons arsenal, breaking with decades of bipartisan US policy surrounding the issue. In a letter sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and obtained by The Washington Post, more than two dozen lawmakers led by Representative Joaquin Castro argued that continued US silence has become untenable amid the expanding war with Iran. “The risks of miscalculation, escalation, and nuclear use in this environment are not theoretical,” the lawmakers wrote. They added that Congress has not received sufficient information regarding “the nuclear balance in the Middle East” or US contingency planning in the event of escalation. Israel has never officially acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons, though its program has long been treated as an open secret by intelligence agencies and nuclear experts. The policy of ambiguity dates back to a 1969 understanding between US President Richard Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir, under which Washington agreed not to publicly pressure Israel over its arsenal. Avner Cohen, a leading historian of Israel’s nuclear program, described the Democrats’ move as historically significant. “This is something that people did not dare do before,” Cohen told The Washington Post. “Even raising these questions publicly is a departure from a bipartisan norm.” The lawmakers argued that Washington’s refusal to openly discuss Israel’s nuclear capabilities undermines US credibility when addressing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and other regional states. “We cannot develop coherent nonproliferation policy for the Middle East … while maintaining a policy of official silence,” the letter stated. According to the report, some officials inside the Trump administration have privately expressed concern that Israel’s nuclear thresholds may not be fully understood. US officials cited fears that Israeli leadership could consider nuclear use under scenarios short of a direct weapons-of-mass-destruction attack.
Poland Wants To Host US Troops That Are Leaving Germany - Polish President Karol Nawrocki said on Wednesday that Poland wants to host the 5,000 US troops the Pentagon is planning to withdraw from Germany over the next year, a step that was announced due to Berlin’s criticism of the US-Israeli war against Iran.“If President Donald Trump decides to reduce the American military presence in Germany, then we in Poland are ready to receive American soldiers,” Nawrocki said, according to POLITICO, which reported that the Polish leader said he would personally lobby Trump to send the troops east. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a day earlier that Warsaw would take “any opportunity” to increase the number of troops in Poland, but said he didn’t want to “poach” them from allies over concerns about European disunity.According to State Department numbers from last year, the US has 10,000 troops in Poland, a level that was reached as part of a buildup overseen by President Biden both before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the Trump administration wanted to “punish” NATO countries that didn’t support the war with Iran by withdrawing troops and moving them to NATO countries that did support the conflict, such as Poland, Romania, or Lithuania, meaning the move may lead to more US forces being deployed closer to Russia.The Pentagon announced last year that it would withdraw about 3,000 troops from Romania and other parts of Eastern Europe, much to the chagrin of Russia hawks in Congress, but the major buildup of US forces on NATO’s “eastern flank” remains as it was under the Biden administration
US Launches 61st Airstrike of the Year in Somalia - The US has launched another airstrike in Somalia, according to a press release from US Africa Command, as US media continues to ignore the bombing campaign.AFRICOM said in a release on Friday that its forces launched an airstrike against al-Shabaab on April 30, about 30 miles northeast of Kismayo, putting the attack in Lower Juba, Somalia’s southernmost region. As usual, AFRICOM offered no other details about the strike.The US-backed Somali military didn’t issue any statements about its operations that day, but the Somali Defense Ministry said on April 29 that over the previous 72 hours it had conducted operations against al-Shabaab in the Lower Shabbelle region, north of Lower Juba. The ministry said the operations were backed by “international partners” and claimed that 22 al-Shabaab fighters were killed. The April 30 US airstrike marks at least the 61st time the US bombed Somalia this year, according to AFRICOM’s numbers. The US has also been bombing an ISIS affiliate based in caves in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, where the US backs the local government.
US Bombs Somalia for 62nd Time This Year - -US Africa Command said in a press release on Tuesday that its forces launched another airstrike in Somalia one day earlier as the Trump administration continues its record-shattering bombing campaign in the country.The command said that the strike targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, about 46 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosasso, in a remote mountain region where the US backs local government forces against ISIS fighters based in caves.As usual, AFRICOM offered no other details about the strike, but Hiraan Online, a Somali news site, reported heavy US strikes at the Miraale Well, an area where ISIS fighters are based. The report said the strikes came after clashes between the Puntland military and the ISIS affiliate in the area.The Hiraan report didn’t say if there were casualties, and AFRICOM has stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments on potential civilian harm since last year. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” AFRICOM said.The bombing marks at least the 62nd US airstrike in Somalia this year, according to AFRICOM’s numbers, putting the Trump administration well on track to break the record for annual airstrikes in the country that it set last year, when it conducted 124. Besides bombing the ISIS affiliate in Puntland, the US has also been targeting al-Shabaab in southern Somalia in support of the US-backed Mogadishu-based federal government. President Trump’s massive escalation of the US air war in Somalia came after he loosened the rules of engagement by lifting restrictions on US drone strikes and raids carried out outside of officially declared combat zones. According to New America, an organization that tracks the air war, the US launched more airstrikes in Somalia in 2025 than were conducted during the administrations of Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combined.Despite the massive escalation, the bombing campaign continues to be ignored by US media, and the administration has never elaborated on what its long-term strategy is for Somalia.The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords.Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and its first recorded attack was a suicide bombing in 2007 that targeted Ethiopian troops occupying Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda. The ISIS affiliate in Puntland started as an offshoot of al-Shabaab and first emerged in 2015.
US Launches Its 63rd Airstrike of the Year in Somalia - - The US has launched another airstrike in Somalia, according to a press release from US Africa Command, as the Trump administration continues its record-shattering bombing campaign in the country.AFRICOM said that the strike targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, about 46 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bossaso, a remote mountain region where the US backs local Puntland forces against ISIS fighters who are based in caves.The command offered no other details about the attack, as it has stopped sharing casualty estimates and assessments on potential civilian harm, and Puntland’s military hasn’t released a statement on military operations that day. The US struck the same area on May 4, which Somali media said targeted the Miraale Well, where ISIS fighters are based.Besides backing the strikes in Puntland, the US has also continued its bombing campaign against al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. According to Antiwar.com’s count, which is based on numbers from AFRICOM, the US has launched at least 63 airstrikes in Somalia this year, putting it on track to break the record for annual airstrikes that President Trump set last year at 124.
US Boat Strike in the Caribbean Kills Two - US Southern Command said on Monday that its forces blew up another alleged drug-running boat as the Trump administration continues the extrajudicial executions at sea.SOUTHCOM said the vessel was targeted in the Caribbean Sea, and it offered no evidence to back up its claim that the boat was carrying drugs, something the Pentagon has never done for the more than 50 boats it has bombed since the campaign started in September 2025. Video of the strike released by SOUTHCOM. Several accounts from survivors and family members of victims of other strikes that were reported by Drop Site News suggest the US has previously targeted fishing boats that weren’t running drugs.According to a count from The Intercept, since the campaign began, the US military has destroyed 57 boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific Ocean and has killed at least 188 people. All of the dead were civilians since they were operating civilian vessels, were not engaged in combat, and didn’t pose any threat to the US at the time of the strikes.Intercept reporter Nick Turse has also found that the bombing campaign against civilian boats has done nothing to stop the flow of drugs to the US, contradicting President Trump’s clearly false claim that drugs “entering our country by sea are down 97%” since the strikes started.According to numbers from the US Customs and Border Protection, cocaine seizures at US borders and along the coast have actually increased since the bombing campaign started. “Cocaine seized at all U.S. borders in the seven months before the strikes began was 38,000 pounds. In the seven months since, it’s 44,000 pounds — 6,000 pounds more,” Adam Isacson, the director for defense oversight at Washington Office on Latin America, told Turse.
SOUTHCOM Blows Up Another Boat in the Eastern Pacific, Killing Three - US Southern Command said on Tuesday night that its forces bombed another alleged drug-running boat in the Eastern Pacific Ocean as the Trump administration continues conducting extrajudicial executions at sea.SOUTHCOM said that the strike killed at least three people, bringing the total number of people killed in the bombing campaign to at least 191 people, all civilians. In those strikes, a total of 58 boats have been destroyed. Video of the strike released by SOUTHCOM. As usual, SOUTHCOM offered no evidence to back up its claim that the boat was carrying narcotics, something the Pentagon has never done for any of the vessels it has destroyed. Several accounts from survivors and family members of victims of other strikes that were reported by Drop Site News suggest the US has previously targeted fishing boats that weren’t running drugs.The US has escalated the boat bombing campaign since the ceasefire was reached with Iran, and the May 5 strike marked the second in as many days. During one stretch last month, the US blew up five boats over five days. Besides being clearly illegal under both US and international law, the bombing campaign also hasn’t been effective in stemming the flow of drugs to the US, according to reporting from The Intercept. Numbers from US Customs and Border Protection show that cocaine seizures at US borders and along the coast have actually increased since the bombing campaign started.
US Fires Tomahawk Missile Using Typhon Launcher in the Philippines in Provocation Aimed at China - The US fired a Tomahawk missile in the Philippines from its new Typhon launcher for the first time during Washington and Manila’s annual Balikatan Exercise, a major provocation aimed at China.The Typhon, also known as the Strategic Mid-Range Fire System, was developed by the US after it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. The INF prohibited the US and Russia from possessing ground-based missile systems that had ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles, limits that China was not bound by.The Tomahawk, which is primarily fired by US Navy warships, has a range of over 1,000 miles, meaning that, from the Philippines, it can reach China. Col. Dennis Hernandez, a spokesman for the Balikatan drills, said the Tomahawk was fired from Tacloban Airport on Leyte Island, from where Tomahawk missiles could strike the coast of mainland China.The Typhon had previously been deployed to Northern Luzon, the Philippines’ northernmost region, from where Tomahawks could reach deep inside China. Hernandez said that the Tomahawk fired during the drills hit a target about 390 miles to the northwest of Leyte Island at the Fort Magsaysay base in Luzon.The Typhon can also fire SM-6 missiles, which can hit targets up to 290 miles away, and US officials envision using them against Chinese warships in the event of a war over Taiwan. The US conducted its first live-fire test of a Typhon launcher outside the continental United States, in Australia, in July 2025, firing an SM-6 missile during the Talisman Saber exercises. In September 2025, the US deployed a Typhon to Japan.The US first deployed the Typhon system to the Philippines for the Balikatan drills in April 2024, and it has remained ever since. At the time of the initial deployment, China strongly condemned the move, saying it has “put the entire region under the fire of the United States (and) brought huge risks of war into the region.”
Trumps racist hellhole rant against India, China sparks outrage - US President Donald Trump has sparked a diplomatic firestorm over his new racist antics after sharing a podcast episode that labeled China and India "hellhole" places. The comments, made by conservative talk radio host Michael Savage on "The Savage Nation," suggested that recent immigrants from the two countries had failed to integrate into American society like white European Americans. The racist tirade was reposted by Trump on his Truth Social account without any added commentary. "A baby here becomes an instant citizen, and then they bring the entire family in from China or India or some other hellhole on the planet," Savage said, according to the transcript shared by Trump. "That there's almost no loyalty to this country amongst the immigrant class coming in today, which was not always the case. No, they're not like the European Americans of today and their ancestors." Trump offered no disavowal of the remarks. By reposting them without comment, critics said, the US president effectively endorsed a xenophobic attack on two of the world's most populous nations and their diaspora communities in the United States. In a rare and sharp public rebuke of a sitting US president, the Indian government on Thursday condemned the remarks as "obviously uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste." India's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal issued a statement, dismissing the comments as factually wrong and deeply offensive. "They certainly do not reflect the reality of the India-US relationship, which has long been based on mutual respect and shared interests," he said. India's main opposition Congress party went further, calling the "hellhole" remark "extremely insulting and anti-India" and demanding that Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally confront Trump over the matter. "It hurts every Indian," the party said on X. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi should take up this matter with the US President and register a strong objection." Asian American advocacy groups hit out at Trump for fueling hatred against minority communities at a time when his administration's crackdown on legal immigration has already left many Indian Americans and Chinese Americans fearing for their place in American society. "We are deeply disturbed that @POTUS shared this hateful, racist screed targeting Indian and Chinese Americans," the Hindu American Foundation said in a statement on X. "Endorsing such rants as the president of the United States will further stoke hatred and endanger our communities, at a time when xenophobia and racism are already at an all-time high." Nearly 5.5 million people of Indian origin live in the United States, alongside millions of Chinese Americans, making them the two largest groups of Asian origin in the country. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has rebuked US President Donald Trump, branding him a bully for spreading “hatred and bile.” The fact that the wife of Trump's own vice president, Usha Vance, is of Indian heritage — her parents immigrated from India — lent an extraordinary layer of hypocrisy to the mercurial American president's reposting of the racist tirade. The US embassy in New Delhi offered a limp defense, saying: "The president has said 'India is a great country with a very good friend of mine at the top'." No explanation was provided for why Trump would share language describing India as a "hellhole" while maintaining that position.
Senate GOP unveils $72 billion proposal to fund ICE, Border Patrol through 2029 - The Senate Judiciary Committee and Senate Homeland Security Committee on Monday night released legislative text for the $72 billion budget reconciliation bill that would bypass Democratic opposition to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol through 2029. The committees released the legislation after the Senate and House passed a joint budget resolution last month unlocking the special budget reconciliation process that will allow them to move funding for immigration enforcement without conceding to Democratic demands for reforms that have hung up the funding for months. The package will be able to pass the Senate with a simple-majority vote instead of needing 60 votes to advance. The text released by the Judiciary Committee would provide $30.73 billion for hiring, paying, training and equipping ICE personnel, including officers, agents, investigators, attorneys and support staff through fiscal year 2029, a year past the end of President Trump’s second term. The Judiciary and Homeland Security bills would provide $22.57 billion to hire, train, pay and equip Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel through fiscal year 2029. The Judiciary panel’s legislation would also provide $2.5 billion to Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin generally to enforce immigration laws and $1 billion to the U.S. Secret Service to make security upgrades to the White House compound related to the construction of the ballroom complex that will replace the historic East Wing. The legislation, however, specifies that none of the funds may be used for non-security elements of the new White House ballroom and attached facilities. Democratic leaders attacked the proposals as out of step with the priorities of American families who are struggling to cope with rising gas and food prices.
Border wall construction scars ancient Indigenous site in Arizona - When Wynona Larson Yazzie saw construction equipment near an ancient Indigenous ground etching in Arizona last month, she started praying. Crews working to build out President Donald Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall bulldozed across it just hours later, she said.The Las Playas Intaglio, a gigantic fish-shaped carving important to Native American tribes like Larson Yazzie’s, suffered severe damage April 23. Contractors ran heavy machinery over the 1,000-year-old geoglyph located in Arizona’s Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge, marring the image with a roughly 50-foot-wide scrape mark. The Washington Post first reported on the damage last week.The administration is fast-tracking its border wall construction, in part by using provisions of the 2005 REAL ID Act, which allows for certain projects to bypass environmental, cultural and public health protections while building border barriers.“The significance of this site was not unknown,” said Verlon Jose, chair of the Tohono O’odham Nation, in a video posted to social media. “It had already been identified. It had already been marked as a place to protect, and yet, it was still lost.”
Trump gets his chance to upend FEMA - President Donald Trump based a pillar of his second term on overhauling disaster aid. Now, he has his chance. A panel that Trump created last year when he was threatening to disband the Federal Emergency Management Agency overcame months of delay Thursday when it approved a report calling for major changes to the nation’s disaster programs. The most-sweeping proposal would end the decades-old system used to determine if states are eligible to receive billions of dollars in disaster aid. Instead of estimating monetary damages from catastrophes like hurricanes to decide whether aid is warranted, the agency would look at the atmospheric conditions of an event, such as wind speed or flood depth, before releasing aid. That would help the agency meet one of Trump’s biggest complaints about FEMA — that it’s too slow to deliver money. The report says payments to states would occur within 30 days of a flood, storm, wildfire or other disaster. “We need to refocus FEMA and get it back to what its mission originally was,” Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said Thursday. Mullin co-chairs the FEMA Review Council with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, replacing former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after Trump fired her in March. The report comes at a turbulent time for the agency. Its workforce has been cut, its resilience grants were canceled and disaster aid requests from Democratic-led states have been largely rejected since Trump took office. The FEMA Review Council has weathered its own cascade of challenges. Since it was created last year, there have been three different acting administrators for FEMA and two leaders at the Department of Homeland Security. The report echoes some of Trump’s earliest threats to dramatically reduce the amount of federal disaster aid that would go to states. One recommendation suggests keeping FEMA’s method of disbursing aid based on the estimated damage from a disaster. But it would raise the monetary threshold, making it harder for states to be eligible for payments. “Federal assistance should only be reserved for truly significant events,” the report says, adding that the ease of getting disaster aid “disincentives … investment in disaster preparedness.” The recommendation reflects a growing consensus that FEMA gets involved in too many disasters, particularly minor ones that many officials say states should be able to handle on their own. FEMA administrators in the first Trump administration and the Obama administration recommended tightening the criteria for states to qualify for disaster aid. But both proposals died amid opposition from state officials and federal lawmakers. Another proposal by the council would streamline the process by which individuals get FEMA aid, which pays for temporary lodging, emergency supplies and other expenses. FEMA gives households roughly $4,000 on average if they were affected by a disaster. The proposed change would increase the maximum amount of money a household could receive. “We know that FEMA is broken and it needs to be fundamentally reformed,” former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who sits on the panel, said at the council’s final meeting Thursday. Another member, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), said, “These reforms are definitely a step in the right direction.” Many of the council’s recommendations would require Congress to pass legislation. It comes five months before midterm elections threaten to take control of the House away from Republicans. Perhaps the most important feature of the council’s final report is that it does not recommend abolishing FEMA or cutting thousands of agency employees — concepts Trump has endorsed. Mullin, the DHS secretary, pushed for a vote on the final report, according to a former senior FEMA official who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. It came as the council faced uncertainty after the White House abruptly canceled its December meeting, when the report was originally set to be approved. Mullin also has vowed to push Trump to appoint a FEMA administrator. It would be the first time the agency has had one since Trump took office in January 2025. FEMA has been led by acting administrators, none of whom has emergency management experience.
Trade court rules Trump’s replacement tariffs illegal - A federal court on Thursday ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10 percent global tariff — a backup plan the president implemented after the Supreme Court struck down his more sweeping worldwide tariffs earlier this year.A divided three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade concluded that Trump’s Plan B was similarly unlawful. And the two judges in the majority barred the administration from collecting the duties from Washington state and two companies that sued over the policy.The court did not issue nationwide relief for the hundreds of thousands of importers that have paid or continue to pay the tariffs, but it has set a precedent that other companies could point to in any legal effort to pursue similar relief.While 24 Democratic-led states, spice importer Burlap & Barrel and toy company Basic Fun! challenged the policy, the panel found that only Washington state and the two companies had standing, leaving the injunction limited to those plaintiffs.
Trump’s firing plan terrified feds. Now, they wait. - President Donald Trump has yet to launch a crucial part of his workforce agenda that could rip civil service protections from thousands of federal employees. The Trump administration created a new classification that will essentially make career staffers “at will,” making it much easier for their respective agencies to fire them. Critics of the president believe the category, called Schedule Policy/Career, is meant to purge the civil service of impartial expertise and instead steer it toward his political goals. But Trump still has not taken the final step of placing employees in the classification, despite having the green light from his own administration to do so for almost two months now. Jenny Mattingley, vice president for public policy and stakeholder engagement at the Partnership for Public Service, noted the classification is supposed to apply to policy-influencing civil servants, which has been difficult for agencies to nail down. “I don’t think it was as easy as they thought it would be to determine which positions,” Mattingley told POLITICO’s E&E News. “What on earth does policymaking, policy advocating, policy influencing — who does that apply to? There’s zero definition so you could go as broad or as narrow as you want.” On his first day back in the White House, Trump signed an executive order to establish Schedule Policy/Career.The Office of Personnel Management drafted a rule in response, which became effective earlier this year on March 9. The agency estimated roughly 50,000 positions could move into the classification, but the president will make “the final decision” on who is placed there.“Please note that placement of positions into Schedule Policy/Career requires an executive order from the President,” OPM Director Scott Kupor wrote in a memo sent to agency heads. “Until such an order is issued, agencies must continue to treat employees and positions as they are currently classified.”No such order has been forthcoming yet. And the administration offered no clues on its timing when contacted for this story. “Ensuring federal employees faithfully and diligently perform their duties for the American people remains a top priority for President Trump,” a White House official said in response to questions. “We will not get ahead of the president on any additional action.” An OPM spokesperson declined to comment. Those tracking the category have been left wondering when it be filled and by whom. “We don’t know which employees necessarily, which positions necessarily, or even when, because executive orders could come out once, they could come out multiple times,” Mattingley said. “Hard to say.” Positions classified at Schedule Policy/Career will still be nonpartisan, career jobs, OPM’s rule indicated. Those positions, however, will now be treated as “at will” and excepted from adverse action procedures or appeals. Don Kettl, professor emeritus and former dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, said the administration “clearly intended” to move much more quickly. “The Schedule PC mandate, after all, was part of the package of executive orders issued on Inauguration Day,” Kettl said. “But that was before DOGE got into gear, which upset all the other personnel plans of the second Trump administration. It’s taken a very, very long time to sort out the administration’s personnel issues since then.” Conservative allies of the administration have clamored for the classification. It’s needed to take hold of the so-called deep state, the government’s career workforce that thwarted Trump during his first term, they claim. “Career employee policy resistance is widespread at agencies,” said Ben Straka, a research and government affairs associate for the Freedom Foundation, in a public comment on the rule. “There is currently little to ensure that policy-influencing career employees there and elsewhere operate fairly and with accountability to the American public they serve.” OPM cited the foundation’s case study on such opposition at the National Labor Relations Board in its final regulation on Schedule Policy/Career. Under initial guidance for the classification, agencies were required to do “a preliminary review” of positions and then a final one, all last year, on which jobs should be moved into the new category. Agencies drafted those reviews and sent them to OPM. Nevertheless, in response to Freedom of Information Act requests, EPA and the Department of the Interior withheld positions they submitted for the classification. Meanwhile, litigation to block the category remains active. The American Federation of Government Employees, the nation’s biggest federal worker union, along with other labor and public interest groups filed an updated complaint in March. The National Treasury Employees Union, another large federal union, also has an ongoing lawsuit.Civil servant awards get DOGE’d - Prominent civil service awards will hit differently this year after the Trump administration decimated the federal workforce. The Partnership for Public Service, a nonpartisan good government research group, announced Monday its honorees for 2026’s Service to America Medals, which recognize outstanding public service by government workers. This is the 25th anniversary of the organization giving out the awards, nicknamed the “Sammies” and considered the federal government’s version of the Oscars. Only four honorees were selected for the 2026 medals, a significant drop from the 23 medalists last year, and 25 the year before that. “Because of the disruption and upheaval over the past year — we lost over 300,000 federal employees — and the adversarial nature of the relationship between the White House and the career workforce, we received less nominations than we typically do,” Michelle Amante, senior vice president of government programs at the partnership told POLITICO’s E&E News. The group received more than 140 nominations from 39 agencies to pick this year’s honorees. That is much smaller compared to over 350 nominations from 65 agencies for 2025 and more than 530 nominations in 2024. Having fewer honorees “certainly isn’t reflective of the amazing work that’s being done by our public servants across the federal workforce,” Amante said. This year’s Sammies arrive during Public Service Recognition Week but also stop-start turmoil at several agencies. As he promised on the campaign trail, President Donald Trump has sought to downsize government and reshape it toward his administration’s agenda, including prosecuting his political enemies and pulling back a wide swath of regulations. Amante said for the 2026 medals, some agencies didn’t participate at all, while others only offered a handful of nominations. The partnership typically receives dozens of nominations from Cabinet-level agencies. “It’s a difficult year, also because of the psychological safety that federal employees are feeling,” she said. “Over the past two years, we have had honorees decline to come to the program or accept an award because they were fearful of their job or fearful of their work being spotlighted in a way that could create a problem for them in the future,” Amante said. The Partnership for Public Service’s four honorees this year are:
- Gharun Lacy, Department of State, for finding and stopping a cyberattack by Chinese-tied hackers on the department’s email accounts.
- James Szykman, EPA, for working with NASA on its satellite to track and address air pollution.
- Jill Frisch, formerly of the IRS, for litigating cases against multinational companies that led to the recovery of billions of tax dollars.
- Ransom Baldwin, Curtis Van Tassell and Paul VanRaden, Department of Agriculture, for using DNA research and genetic testing to change dairy cattle breeding, resulting in better milk production and animal health.
$1 billion allocated for White House security upgrades, ballroom construction - The Senate Judiciary Committee late on Monday added $1 billion to a spending package for the U.S. Secret Service to allow for security upgrades to the compound tied to the construction of the White House ballroom. The $1 billion makes up part of a $72 billion budget reconciliation bill released by the Judiciary panel and the Senate Homeland Security Committee. The bill’s text does not specifically say the $1 billion will go to the ballroom, but that it will go toward “the purposes of security adjustments and upgrades, including within the perimeter fence of the White House compound to support enhancements by the United States Secret Service relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, including above-ground and below-ground security features.” The committees released the bill after the Senate and House passed a joint budget resolution last month unlocking the special budget reconciliation process to ensure they could move forward with funding for federal immigration enforcement amid the Department of Homeland Security shutdown. These funds cannot be used for any non-security elements of the ballroom and nearby attached facilities, according to the legislation.
GOP reconciliation bill has money tied to Trump ballroom -- Senate Republicans are including funding for Secret Service security upgrades related to President Donald Trump’s ballroom project as part of a nearly $72 billion package that would shovel cash to immigration enforcement agencies.The package includes $1 billion in Secret Service funding for “security adjustments and upgrades” including at the White House. This is on top of the almost $3.3 billion the agency received already under the fiscal 2026 DHS funding bill signed into law Thursday.The White House touted the security funding’s inclusion Tuesday, which it views as Congress approving a project that is currently mired in litigation. A federal judge ruled last month legislators had not properly authorized the project.“The White House applauds Congress’s latest proposal in its reconciliation package which includes additional funding for security infrastructure upgrades in relation to the long overdue East Wing Modernization Project,” spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement. “Congress has rightly recognized the need for these funds.”
Trump gives go-ahead to major new Canada-US oil pipeline - (AP) — President Donald Trump granted a key approval Thursday for a major new oil pipeline from Canada into the U.S. that’s been dubbed “Keystone Light” over its similarities to a contentious project blocked by the Biden administration. The three-foot-wide (1 meter) Bridger Pipeline Expansion would carry up to 550,000 barrels (87,400 cubic meters) of oil a day from Canada through Montana and Wyoming, where it would link with another pipeline. The pipeline needs additional state and federal environmental approvals before construction, which company officials expect to start next year. Environmentalists hope to stop the project over worries that the pipeline could break and spill. At peak volume, the 650-mile (1,050-kilometer) pipeline would move two-thirds as much oil as the better-known Keystone XL pipeline that got partially built before President Joe Biden, citing climate change, canceled its permit on the day he took office in 2021. Trump's plan to paint the Eisenhower office building could cost at least $7.5M, the White House says “Slightly different from the last administration. They wouldn’t sign a pipeline deal. And we have pipelines going up,” Trump said after signing his approval for it to cross the border between Saskatchewan and northeastern Montana. Trump in his first term approved the Keystone XL project in 2020 despite concerns from Native American tribes about possible spills and environmental groups about fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change. Its cancellation by Biden frustrated Canadian officials, including Prime Minster Justin Trudeau, after Alberta invested more than $1 billion in the project.Sometimes called “Keystone Light,” the Bridger Pipeline Expansion would not cross any Native American reservations. More than 70% would be built within existing pipeline corridors and 80% on private land, Bridger Pipeline LLC said in a statement. The line would carry various grades of crude, including from Canada’s oil sands region, to be exported or refined in the U.S., company spokesperson Bill Salvin said. The permit from Trump also authorizes other petroleum products including gasoline, kerosene, diesel and liquified petroleum gas. Salvin said including those fuels keeps the company’s options open, but it remains focused for now on crude oil. Bridger Pipeline could avoid a reversal by a future administration if it’s able to complete its project before Trump leaves office. It hopes to start construction in the fall of 2027 and finish it by late 2028 or early 2029, Bridger spokesperson Bill Salvin said.
White House demolition sent contaminated dirt to golf course - Dirt that the Trump administration dumped on a Washington golf course after removing it from the White House’s East Wing demolition site tested positive for toxic elements like lead, chromium and arsenic, according to new data commissioned by the National Park Service. The agency published last week the results of a first batch of soil samples collected between late October and early April. Dozens of chemicals were detected above background levels, according to soil sampling data by Jacobs Engineering Group taken from the stockpile of dirt. The company had the soil analyzed for a suite of potential public health concerns, including volatile organic compounds, asbestos, pesticides and select heavy metals. A handful of compounds, including arsenic and lead, were detected at levels that could pose a risk to human health. The data sheds light on the composition of a pile of dirt that’s become an unexpected sticking point in a larger dispute over the Trump administration decision last year to tear down the East Wing to make room for a 90,000-square-foot ballroom. Last year, the administration dumped excavated soil from the White House grounds at the East Potomac Golf Links, which is owned by the National Park Service.
The Trump administration cracks down on national park websites - National park staffers used to control park websites. But not anymore. A small group of Interior Department employees has been reviewing new submissions for National Park Service websites since February, in part evaluating the material for compliance with President Donald Trump’s 2025 mandate to present a more positive history of the country at its many historic sites, battlefields and natural wonders. One review considered an article by a tribal group for a website about the Lewis and Clark National Historic Trail. By the time the article was posted, it was scrubbed of references to former President Thomas Jefferson fathering children with an enslaved young woman. For NPS personnel, the loss of online authority is a big cultural shift for an agency where park staff typically led on portraying information about their sites, often in consultation with local communities and Native American tribes. “The Park Service has been for most — if not almost all — of its history very decentralized, with a lot of authority, including comms at the park level,” said Jonathan Jarvis, who led NPS during the Obama administration. “This is a very divergent approach.” Any substantive changes or new materials on NPS websites must be vetted and managed by the digital team, a group of staffers consolidated from across Interior offices and agencies that answers directly to leaders in Washington, according to guidance viewed by POLITICO’s E&E News and two employees familiar with the process. Snapshots from a database of requests for website changes made by park staffers in March, also viewed by E&E News, show the kind of submissions from parks they are considering. Part of the agenda: Looking at material to determine if it fits Trump’s order from last year that exhibits at national parks and other public lands shouldn’t dwell on the “negative” aspects of U.S. history or “inappropriate disparage” historical figures. One NPS employee described the new process as a “total lockdown” on information — part of a larger effort at Interior to restrict who can communicate with the public and what gets said.
Dem seeks probe of no-bid contract for Washington park revamp - New York Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres is asking the Interior Department’s internal watchdog to investigate a lucrative construction deal the National Park Service granted to a prominent Washington-area contractor that’s also building President Donald Trump’s ballroom. The administration in January gave Clark Construction an $11 million, no-bid contract to rehabilitate two historic fountains in Lafayette Square, a green space across Pennsylvania Avenue from the White House, according to recent reporting from The New York Times. The contract later grew to $17.4 million when additional work was added, a price tag that sharply exceeds a 2022 estimate of $3.3 million for the Lafayette work, according to the report. The National Park Service has blamed inflation. “The Trump administration claims to care about waste, fraud, and abuse … while quietly handing out a no-bid foundation contract at 427% over estimate to the same contractor building Trump’s ballroom,” Torres said, a member of the House Financial Service Committee.
Maryland Dems probe Air Force on jet fuel leak - Maryland Democrats are seeking answers from the Trump administration on a jet fuel leak at Joint Base Andrews that has polluted soil and a Potomac River tributary just outside Washington. In a letter Wednesday to Air Force Secretary Troy Meink, both of Maryland’s senators and seven House members questioned the department’s response to the release of over 32,000 gallons of jet fuel at the base, roughly two-thirds of which reached Piscataway Creek. The incident began in January, but the Air Force did not notify the state until April 8, according to Maryland environmental regulators. “Legacy pollution from Joint Base Andrews has already resulted in PFAS contamination in Piscataway Creek and the surrounding area, and this fuel spill adds to existing environmental stressors affecting the watershed,” the letter said. “The release has the potential to cause further ecological harm to the Piscataway Creek, which flows into the Potomac River, a key Chesapeake Bay tributary.”
Press Freedom Groups Accuse Larry Ellison of Promising Trump Admin He’d Fire CNN Anchors if He Acquires Warner Bros - - Two press freedom groups are accusing Paramount Skydance owner Larry Ellison of promising “favors” to the Trump administration to win regulatory approval in its bid to take over CNN’s parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery.Those favors allegedly include making “sweeping” staff changes at CNN, a network that President Donald Trump often bashes as “fake news.”The groups, Freedom of the Press Foundation and Reporters Without Borders, own shares in Paramount Skydance, and sent a letter to the company’s chief legal officer Thursday demanding to see internal documents that could be related to Ellison’s alleged attempt to curry favor with the White House.The groups cited a Delaware law allowing stockholders to inspect the books and records “for any proper purpose.”According to the letter, the groups expressed “credible concern that Paramount leadership has offered, solicited, or effectuated a corrupt exchange,” and alleged that promises made to Trump “constitute a breach of fiduciary duties” that opens up the company to a “range of potential civil and criminal penalties.”Last summer, the Trump administration approved the Ellison family’s bid to acquire Paramount, which includes CBS. Son David Ellison brought in Free Press founder Bari Weiss to head CBS News and make sweeping staffing and editorial changes. Critics have accused her of pandering to the Trump administration in its news coverage.Larry Ellison reportedly told Trump that he would “implement the CBS playbook” at CNN if the merger is approved, which would mean removing anchors and commentators at the network that Trump doesn’t like, the letter alleged.Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approved the proposed merger just two weeks ago.“Investors have supported the Larry Ellison family takeover, which would become the biggest Hollywood merger in nearly a decade,” reported The Los Angeles Times. “The deal would pay Warner stockholders $31 per share — four times the stock price a year ago.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene Says She’d Be in ‘Jail’ if She Shares Alleged Donald Trump’s Texts - Marjorie Taylor Greene recently made a shocking revelation about President Donald Trump. It’s about how he reacted to the death threats she and her family received. She was once a MAGA supporter but later called out the president on several issues, including the Iran war and the Epstein files. She also resigned from Congress last year, after her public feud with Trump. However, she revealed that if she disclosed the texts Trump sent her when she received threats, she would be put behind bars.During a speech at The Ron Paul Institute in Clute, Texas, Marjorie Taylor Greene revealed that Donald Trump’s public attacks have resulted in her and her family receiving death threats. She said that she had confronted the president on this topic, but he didn’t respond sympathetically.“Trump proceeded to tell me that it was my fault and that I deserve it. If my son gets killed, I deserve it because I was a traitor to him,” she allegedly claimed about how Trump reacted. She further speculated that if she ever released the texts Trump sent her, she would probably be put in prison.White House spokesperson Davis Ingle hit back at her allegations. He called Greene “a quitter who is pathetically trying to stay relevant” by criticizing the president. “Unfortunately, Trump Derangement Syndrome has rotted former Congresswoman Greene’s peanut-sized brain,” he further added.Trump had earlier addressed Greene’s claims of having received death threats while addressing the media ahead of boarding Air Force One last year. “Marjorie Taylor Greene says her life could be in danger because of the rhetoric,” a reporter told the president, who replied, “Her life is in danger? Who’s that?” he said.
'Not The President's Consigliere': Obama Slams Trump over DOJ Directives - – Former US president Barack Obama called out the current president, Donald Trump, for directing the Department of Justice to prosecute his political opponents and critics, saying the attorney general, who leads the DOJ, isn't the president's "consigliere." Obama made the comments in an interview that aired on May 5 with Stephen Colbert, who hosts CBS' "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert." "The White House shouldn't be able to direct the attorney general to go around prosecuting whoever," Obama said when asked about what powers he believes presidents should not have. "The idea is that the attorney general is the people's lawyer. It's not the president's consigliere," he added. "Consigliere" is a term for an adviser or counselor to the leader of a criminal organization, such as a Mafia family. Obama said at this point that principle "probably" needs to be codified, or committed to law by Congress. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement to USA TODAY that "Barack Hussein Obama is the king of weaponization and documents declassified last year revealed he was present for key meetings that led to critical steps in the opening of the Russia Hoax investigation against President Trump." "Conversely, President Trump has restored integrity to the Department of Justice that Obama and Biden broke," Jackson added. In September, Trump posted a message on Truth Social to then-Attorney General Pam Bondi, telling her the DOJ "can't delay any longer" in criminally prosecuting former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James and California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff. "JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!!!" Trump added in all caps. Bondi quickly installed Lindsey Halligan – a lawyer picked by Trump despite having no prosecutorial experience – in a top federal prosecuting role in Virginia, where Halligan secured charges from grand juries against Comey and James. Both cases were dismissed after a federal judge ruled Halligan was unlawfully appointed. The Justice Department under Bondi also investigated others disfavored by Trump, including Schiff, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and six members of Congress who urged members of the military not to obey potential illegal orders. Trump fired Bondi in April, reportedly, in part, because of his frustration at the DOJ's lack of success prosecuting his perceived political enemies. Since then, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, a former personal defense lawyer to Trump, has backed his office in securing new charges against Comey, which accuse the former FBI director of threatening to harm or kill Trump by posting an image in May 2025 depicting seashells arranged to say "86 47." Some Trump supporters said the post was a threat because "86" is a slang term that means "to throw out" or "to get rid of," according to Merriam-Webster. Trump is the 47th US president. Comey deleted the post and said in a new one that he "didn’t realize some folks associate those numbers with violence." He said he took the post down because he opposes "violence of any kind."
Rand Paul pushes for Fauci indictment before statute of limitations expires -Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Tuesday called for Anthony Fauci, former longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), to be indicted for what the senator claimed was his lying under oath about gain-of-function research. “6 days from now, on May 11th, the statute of limitations expires on the possibility of indicting Anthony Fauci for denying under oath that he funded gain-of-function research involving bat coronaviruses in Wuhan, the origin city of the pandemic,” Paul wrote on social media. Paul was referencing the May 11, 2021, hearing held by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions in which he and Fauci got into one of several heated exchanges the two would have in the last few years of Fauci’s tenure. During the hearing, Fauci repeatedly denied favoring and funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China. Paul supports the lab-leak theory of the origins of COVID-19, alleging the virus originated from an escaped, artificially enhanced virus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He has sought to center blame on Fauci as part of this theory. “I do not favor gain of function research in China. That is not correct,” Fauci said when accused of such by Paul. “I fully agree you should investigate where the virus came from, but again, we have not funded gain of function research on this virus in the Wuhan institute of Virology.” There is a five-year statute of limitations on lying to Congress. Paul’s call for an indictment against Fauci comes roughly one week after one of his former advisors, David Morens, was indicted on charges of concealing and destroying records. During a House investigation into the COVID-19 pandemic, Morens was found to have used his personal email address to communicate with the organization EcoHealth Alliance.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces initiative to boost psychiatric 'deprescribing' - Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday announced his new initiative boost “deprescribing” psychiatric medications, during a Make America Healthy Again Institute summit on mental health and overmedicalization. “Today, we take clear and decisive action to confront our nation’s mental health crisis by addressing the overuse of psychiatric medications —especially among children,” Kennedy said. “We will support patient autonomy, require informed consent and shared decision-making, and shift the standard of care toward prevention, transparency and a more holistic approach to mental health,” he added. As part of the initiative, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration will issue a report on prescribing trends. In a “Dear Colleague” letter on Monday, top officials within the HHS wrote that psychiatric medications “should not be understood as the only treatment option.” Kennedy has previously criticized psychiatric medications, suggesting in the past that Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors could be linked to school shootings. The HHS secretary also claimed these medications are more addictive than heroin, despite evidence to the contrary. Kennedy himself is a recovering heroin addict. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 16.5 percent of adults in 2020 were taking psychiatric medications for their mental health. The American Psychiatric Association (APA), which represents more than 40,000 members involved in psychiatric care and research, signaled on Monday it was receptive to the spirit of Kennedy’s initiative but pushed back on how it characterized mental healthcare. “We are supportive of the Administration’s plans for further investment in research and clinician training on the issues of prescribing and deprescribing,” the organization said in a statement. “That being said, while APA supports efforts to improve the quality, safety, and evidence base of mental health treatment, we strongly object to framing the nation’s mental health crisis as primarily a problem of ‘overmedicalization’ or ‘overprescribing,'” the APA added. “Deprescribing alone is not a sufficient response to this crisis.”
Diesel price spike raises stakes for Trump, GOP ahead of midterms – Most Americans are focused on the cost of gasoline at the station up the street — but diesel fuel costs are also poised to set an all-time high in the U.S., which in turn is expected to drive up prices for everything from groceries to postage. A spike in diesel fuel affects a wide array of commodities that need to move across the country – including for home building, manufacturing and much more. And it couldn’t come at a worse time for President Donald Trump and Republicans, just months ahead of the contentious midterm election season in which Democrats are expected to take back the House and possibly the Senate amid intensifying voter anger over the rising cost of living and the unpopular war in Iran. Voters may not know why the cost of goods that travel via freight are going up, but they’ll blame the party in charge,. “The price of everything has gone up, Trump promised just the opposite,”. “He’s gonna pay a price at the polls.” On Tuesday, the average price for a gallon of diesel cost $5.66, just 16 cents away from the record price of $5.82 set in June 2022 under former President Joe Biden, according to AAA. Prices jumped nearly 30 cents last week as inventories of the fuel fell steeply. For the last two months, administration officials have argued that their energy policies protected the American consumers from Iranian war price shocks and that fuel was cheaper under Trump than Biden. But diesel fuel may soon break that record and a gallon of regular gas, which stood at an average of $4.46 on Tuesday, is also closing in on the record price of $5.02. Trump and others in his administration have repeatedly assured Americans that while prices are higher than they’d like, they will decrease as soon as the war in Iran, now more than two months old, ends. At an unrelated event at the White House Tuesday, Trump claimed energy prices will soon “go lower than they were before.” “Oil is at $102, that’s a very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged,” Trump said. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that fuel price spikes, which he called a “short-term blip,” are a “temporary aberration” that would be over in weeks or months. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers echoed that claim in a statement. “President Trump has always been clear that these are short-term, temporary disruptions,” she said. “The President brought oil and gas prices down to multi-year lows at record speed, and as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, these energy prices will plummet once again.” In Iowa, farmers largely purchased their diesel for the spring planting season, but freight costs for hauling grain are rapidly increasing, said Jim Buschkamp, co-chair of the Republican Party of Black Hawk County. For now, he said the lull after the planting season and strong Republican support for Trump means that voter anger over rising costs hasn’t dramatically ticked upward that he has seen. But if there is no resolution by the fall harvest season when farmers will need a large volume of diesel again, the pressure will build just before the midterms, he said
Senate Democrat on redistricting: ‘Politicians are picking their voters’ -Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) on Sunday slammed the Supreme Court for striking down Louisiana’s congressional maps this week, arguing the national redistricting push is allowing lawmakers to choose their voters rather than upholding the democratic process. “Gerrymandering turns our elections on its head, so that rather than the people picking their politicians or their public servants, the politicians are picking their voters,” Warnock said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.” Warnock’s comments follow the high court’s decision earlier this week that determined Louisiana’s majority Black district was illegal, drawing back protections under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The provision has been used to justify redistricting efforts aimed at protecting the voting power of minority groups, and it specifically outlaws any voting practice that creates hurdles to voters “on account of race or color.” Warnock said, “What happened this week is nothing less than a massive and devastating blow, not only to our democracy, but particularly to people of color in the South. This question about intent is on its head, misleading, and it ignores our history.” “We had 100 years after the 15th Amendment was passed, which, on paper, gave Black people the right to vote, but with supposedly or putatively race neutral methods. For 100 years, the right to vote was denied,” he told host Margaret Brennan. The Senate Democrat said the high court “hobbled” Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act in its 2013 ruling in Shelby County v. Holder, adding that, since then, the country has seen the racial voter turnout gap grow “wider and wider, not smaller.” “We will see a devastating impact as a result of this, and now, more than ever, we’ve got to stand up and fight for our democracy,” Warnock said of this week’s Supreme Court ruling. Warnock called the decision “21st Century Jim Crow tactics in new clothes” and slammed efforts to purge Black and Brown citizens from voter rolls and issues with altering precincts. “And now — as a result of the decision this week — they’re saying that even when you show up, we have — we have given the green light so that politicians can play games with the lines, so that even when you overcome those barriers and show up, your voices will be muted,” Warnock said in the segment.
Eric Trump shares gold logo for proposed ‘Donald J. Trump International Airport’ in Palm Beach --Eric Trump, President Trump’s son, unveiled the new logo for Palm Beach International Airport (PBI), which will soon be renamed after his father. The younger Trump posted a photo of the logo to the social platform X. It features a golden eagle, donning a crest shield with stars and stripes, holding two olive branches. Under that, the words, “President Donald J. Trump International Airport” are displayed, with 12 gold stars scattered throughout the logo. “For the first time, I am extremely proud to share the OFFICIAL logo for the Donald J. Trump International Airport in Palm Beach, Florida,” Eric Trump wrote. “There is no person more deserving of this incredible honor than @realDonaldTrump! Congratulations Dad! He added, “Looking forward to seeing flights landing at ‘DJT’ very very soon!”
Lutnick Testifying Today On Epstein Ties After Dems Demand Subpoena | Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick - a former neighbor and pal of Jeffrey Epstein who emailed the sex offender about visiting his Caribbean island (and then said it was 'nice to see him' in a subsequent email) - will provide closed-door testimony today in front of the US House committee investigating the Epstein's crimes and possible lapses in the law enforcement response. While Lutnick initially claimed he barely knew Epstein (like everybody else), emails and other documents released earlier this year by the DOJ reveals he's full of shit. As we noted in February, the trip, planned in 2012, came years after Lutnick claimed he cut all ties with the pedophile. Yet in December of that year, Lutnick sent an email to Epstein saying that he had a group of people, including his wife and children and another family, who were visiting the Caribbean - and inquired as to where Epstein was located and whether they could visit for a meal. Epstein, replying through an assistant, set up a lunch gathering. When reached for comment, Lutnick told the NY Times "I spent zero time with him," before hanging up. The documents suggest the visit did occur. The gathering was set for Dec. 23, 2012. A day later, an assistant to Mr. Epstein forwarded Mr. Lutnick a message from Mr. Epstein: “Nice seeing you,” it said.In a podcast interview last year, Mr. Lutnick claimed that around 2005, he and his wife had been so revolted by Mr. Epstein that they decided not to associate with him again. Mr. Lutnick said in the interview that Mr. Epstein invited them to tour his Upper East Side mansion, next door to Mr. Lutnick’s own home. When they noticed a massage table in the middle of a room, Mr. Lutnick recalled, Mr. Epstein explained that he received “the right kind of massage” every day. Mr. Lutnick said that he and his wife quickly left and decided to “never be in a room with that disgusting person ever again.” Except, that was complete bullshit of course. Lutnick's connection to Epstein isn't a huge surprise after a 2019 Crain's investigation found that sex offender had significant links to the property next to his infamous Manhattan townhouse at 9 East 71st Street. Crain's investigation found that Epstein's history at the address is entangled with the adjacent property, 11 E. 71st St., now home to billionaire Howard Lutnick—as well as with 301 E. 66th St., a building belonging to Epstein's brother.An entity called the SAM Conversion Corp. purchased 11 E. 71st St. in 1988, more than a year before the Nine East 71st Street Corp. bought the former school that would become Epstein's domicile. At the time, both companies used a Columbus, Ohio, address associated with Limited Brands founder Leslie Wexner, Epstein's mentor and client.In 1992 SAM Conversion Corp. sold 11 E. 71st St. to the 11 East 71st Street Trust for "ten dollars and other valuable consideration paid by the party of the second part," records show. Martha Stark, former commissioner of the city Department of Finance, told Crain's that the $10 figure is a placeholder used in many real estate sales—a holdover from a period when the value of property transactions was not publicly disclosed....In 1998 Comet Trust sold 11 E. 71st St. to Lutnick, again for "10 dollars and other valuable consideration." The real estate transfer tax payment came to $106,400, from which Stark estimated the actual price to have been $7.6 million.Lutnick, now the CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, took out a $4 million mortgage on the property the same day as the sale. His spokesperson did not reply by press time to requests for comment on the property's history and his relationship with his next-door neighbor.
US Court Releases What Is Believed to Be Epstein’s Suicide Note - (Tasnim) – A federal court in New York has released a photocopy of a suicide note purportedly written by convicted pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein, The New York Times (NYT) reported. According to the publication, the note was found by Epstein’s cellmate, Nicholas Tartaglione, in July 2019, when the financier was unconscious. The NYT added that this incident occurred several weeks before Epstein was found dead in his prison cell, TASS reported. In the note, the newspaper indicated, Epstein allegedly wrote that "they (the prosecution) investigated me for months," yet "found nothing." At the end of the message, the phrases "no fun" and "not worth it" are included. The newspaper emphasized that it cannot confirm Epstein’s authorship. Epstein was arrested by New York State law enforcement agencies on July 6, 2019. Prosecutors said there was evidence that between 2002 and 2005, he arranged for dozens of underage girls, the youngest of whom was 14, to visit his home in Manhattan. Epstein’s circle of friends and acquaintances included current and former officials from the US and many other countries, including former heads of state, as well as major entrepreneurs and show business stars. Criminal proceedings against the financier in the US were terminated after he took his own life in his prison cell in August 2019.
BankThink The banking industry is not ready for a world of AI-boosted hackers - When CEOs of America's largest banks were summoned to an emergency meeting in Washington to discuss Anthropic's Claude Mythos, the alarm was understandable. The claim that an AI model can autonomously discover previously unknown vulnerabilities, known as "zero-day vulnerabilities" across every major operating system and web browser, including flaws that survived decades of human review, is significant.
- Key insight: We have always known that the asymmetry between attack and defense in cybersecurity favors attackers. Mythos has made that asymmetry impossible to ignore.
- What's at stake: Mythos introduces an adversary that can find vulnerabilities that nobody knew existed, faster than defenders can be warned they exist.
- Forward look: Regulators should fast-track the development of AI-powered vulnerability intelligence sharing frameworks.
The revelation that Mythos, the latest version of Anthropic's Claude large language model, can unearth unknown vulnerabilities in computer systems and websites is a crisis moment, especially for community banks, writes Yinglian Xie, of DataVisor.
Pentagon, White House take different approaches on Anthropic -The White House and the Pentagon are taking significantly different approaches to how — and whether — the federal government would use Anthropic’s artificial intelligence systems. As the White House warms up to the frontier AI company while the Pentagon digs its heels in against the firm, government employees and contractors are left in a bind.“For providers dependent on a specific model, this creates confusion,” an industry source operating inside federal agencies told The Hill. “Most are taking a dual-track approach to wait for clarity while preparing internally to transition from Anthropic to alternative models if needed.”Just over two months have passed since the Pentagon blacklisted Anthropic from its military work after a dispute with the company over the potential use of its AI models for domestic surveillance and for fully autonomous attacks.As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth moved to ban Anthropic from the Pentagon, President Trump took a step further and told civilian agencies to stop using its products as well.Anthropic is challenging its designation as a supply chain risk — a designation that is typically reserved for foreign adversaries — and Department of Defense leaders indicated as recently as last week that they were not planning to back down.Hegseth slammed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei as an “ideological lunatic” during a Senate hearing last week, telling lawmakers the firm would not agree with the Pentagon’s terms of service. He compared it to “Boeing giving us airplanes and telling us who we can shoot at.” A day later, DOD’s chief technology officer, Emil Michael, told CNBC that Anthropic is still a supply chain risk, reiterating that the Pentagon has directed DOD offices to remove the product from its work within six months, with some exceptions.Meanwhile, other administration leaders, including Trump himself, have signaled otherwise in recent weeks. Prior to Michael’s CNBC appearance, Trump told the same outlet that a deal between the DOD and Anthropic is “possible.”
AI boom sparks rare warning of ‘significant risks’ to grid - North America’s grid watchdog is slated to issue its highest level of warning Monday about threats to the power system from large data centers, underscoring the challenges facing utilities and grid operators grappling with a surge in electricity demand. The move signals a new chapter where major technology companies like Amazon and Microsoft may face stricter rules on how they use power. The Level 3 alert from the North American Electric Reliability Corp., the grid’s not-for-profit security monitor, was developed after reports of data centers abruptly going offline in Virginia and Texas, raising concerns about blackouts. “Computational loads, such as data centers, could increase exponentially in the next four years,” NERC said in a draft of the alert, adding that “significant risks” to the bulk power system “need to be addressed through immediate industry action.” Lee Shaver, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called NERC’s action a “big deal,” noting it is only the third time in history that the organization has issued a Level 3 alert. Currently, data centers don’t have to follow the same rules as power plants in informing grid monitors when they are coming online and offline, a factor Shaver and other analysts called a “huge obstacle” to reliability. Operators of data centers running energy-intensive artificial intelligence models also aren’t typically required to share data about sharp power swings that could damage equipment. A paper from dozens of scientists from Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI scientists warned last year that AI power swings can “cause physical damage” to grid infrastructure. The Level 3 alert — to be sent to transmission owners, grid operators, utilities and other companies running the grid — is set to recommend seven “essential actions” to ease risks to the power system from “large loads” such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. Ultimately, NERC is putting the pieces in place for mandatory reliability standards for data centers. They would require approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. NERC’s alert calls for transmission planners to develop a detailed list of “modeling data, settings, and parameters needed from computational loads” and study the grid stability “margin” at least annually in areas with large AI infrastructure, according to the draft. Transmission owners should install and utilize fault recording devices to assess data center performance during grid disturbances, the draft recommendations said. While the actions are not mandatory, it’s essential to push companies to act now to avoid grid disturbances before stricter regulations are in place, said Shaver. Data centers need to be providing more information on what they plan to do — and not do — on the grid, analysts said. “It’s really important to put data centers on notice as soon as possible that they are going to be subject to new rules,” said Abe Silverman, an assistant research scholar and electricity expert at Johns Hopkins University. Part of the challenge is that AI infrastructure is getting larger, with multiple gigawatt-scale complexes planned across the country. A gigawatt is enough to power a city of roughly 750,000 homes. Data centers could use between 9 to 17 percent of U.S. power by the end of the decade, according to the Electric Power Research Institute. In prepping the alert, NERC cited “load loss events” since 2022 in the Eastern Interconnection and Texas where data centers unexpectedly disconnected from the grid. Shaver compared the effect to turning off a large appliance like a garbage disposal quickly, causing kitchen lights to flicker. If that effect is scaled up to a gigawatt, “it’s going to have massive impacts across the grid,” he said. There can be similar grid disturbances if data center power suddenly comes back online, he said.
Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Chip Plants, Powerplants, Office Buildings: Boom one End, Bust the Other -- by Wolf Richter - Of the trillions of dollars to be sunk into the AI-related capital expenditure mania – nearly $3 trillion through 2028, per a research report by PitchBook today – only a small portion is going to the actual construction costs of data centers, which is what we track here, but they nevertheless show the trend of the AI spending mania. The vast majority of data-center costs is going to AI servers and related equipment in those data centers, and to equipment to supply the servers with power, and to the equipment and infrastructure to connect the data centers to the internet, none of which are included in construction costs here. Construction spending on data centers soared by 34% year-over-year in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $50 billion, up by 437% since the beginning of 2021 and up by 688% since the beginning of 2018, according to data from the Census Bureau today. It takes years to plan, permit, and build data centers – now amid growing local opposition – and the spending today was originally planned some time ago. This boom in data-center construction activity has triggered various supply constraints and bottlenecks, ranging from labor, such as electricians, to electrical equipment, including on-site power-generation equipment when grid power is insufficient. No one was prepared for this kind of explosion of concentrated investment. Office construction spending fell by 9% year-over-year in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $46 billion, the lowest since 2015, amid the severe problems in the office sector of commercial real estate. Spending on data center construction (blue line) exceeded spending on office construction (red line) for the first time ever in January. Boom and bust: Spending on Power Plants & Distribution rose by 5.5% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $125 billion, up by 41% since the beginning of 2021. This includes construction spending on power plants and transmission infrastructure. It takes years to plan and build a power plant, including regulatory approvals. That process lags far behind what data centers need. In addition, utilities and power generators are worried about an untimely end of the AI investment mania that might leave them with newly-built stranded assets when the investment bubble implodes, and they’ve been proceeding with some care. Semiconductor plants are included in the category of factories for computers, electronic & electrical equipment factories. At the peak, this category accounted for roughly half of total factory construction spending. Construction spending on those factories dropped to an annual rate of $70 billion in March, down sharply from the peak in 2024, but still up by a huge 768% from early 2021. And there is a second wave of semiconductor plants getting lined up, including SpaceX’s Terafab facility in Grimes County, Texas, with an estimated capital investment of $55 billion for the first phase, and total capital investment, “if additional phases are constructed,” of $119 billion, according to a Grime County public hearing notice. The construction phase of some of the plants that were started a few years ago is now finished, and the equipment is getting installed, and in some, production is getting ramped up. But these data here are just the construction costs of the buildings and do not include the cost of the production equipment in the building that dwarf the costs of the building. What’s important for the US economy is the future production at these plants after they ramp up — decades of production interlaced with further investments. Construction spending is just an indicator of how much production capacity is getting added at a point in time to the US manufacturing base. Construction spending on factories for chemical products, the second-largest category of factory construction, jumped by 9.9% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $46 billion in March, up by 57% from the beginning of 2021. Overall spending on factory construction in March dropped to an annual rate of $189 billion, that was still up by 154% from the beginning of 2021, still a massive increase in spending on factories compared to a few years ago. All these factories will be highly automated plants with relatively little low-skilled manual labor. No one is building a sweatshop factory in the US as labor is too expensive, and there won’t be a surge of low-skilled manual labor coming with these factories. But industrial robots cost the same anywhere in the world; they’re the great equalizer. How much of this growth is inflation? Construction cost inflation for nonresidential buildings has started to accelerate over the past three months and in March rose by 3.3% year-over-year, according to the Producer Price Index for Construction of Nonresidential Buildings. The big spike of construction cost inflation occurred in 2020 through 2022 (+36% in two years). In 2023 and 2024, costs remained relatively flat, with inflation near 0% over those two years. Then in the second half of 2025, construction costs began rising again. By comparison: Year-over-year, the PPI for construction costs is up by 3.3%, while spending on data-center construction is up by 34%; since January 2021, the PPI is up by 36%, while spending on data-center construction by 437%
"Data Centers Require Reliable And Predictable Energy": Riot Partners With Terrestrial Energy --Riot platforms announced a collaboration with Terrestrial Energy to pair future data centers with co-located nuclear reactors. The two companies are evaluating deploying Terrestrial’s Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR) plants to existing Riot facilities in Texas and Kentucky, as well as multiple other potential sites. The headline comes on the same morning as reactor development peer NANO Nuclear announced a strategic MOU with Supermicro…Following deals that have been announced recently from hyperscalers like Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, data center developers are now being more vocal than ever about their needs for reliable energy.“Our data centers require reliable and predictable energy at the scale demanded by today’s hyperscale customers,” said Jason Les, CEO of Riot Platforms. “Partnering with Terrestrial Energy positions our facilities at the forefront of data center deployment, utilizing clean energy and benefitting both our customers and the communities we operate in. The consistent baseload of power required by data centers presents an ideal pairing for development alongside Terrestrial’s IMSR Plants.”The press release is notably lacking on any sort of timeline description for Terrestrial actually making any progress towards reactor construction. Terrestrial is significantly behind almost all of its market peers, including Oklo and NANO Nuclear. Oklo has made significant progress with constructing a sodium-cooled reactor at INL with the potential to take the reactor critical as early as this summer. NANO Nuclear has begun early site work and recently submitted a construction permit application to the NRC for deployment of their KRONOS reactor in Illinois. Terrestrial only has some recent document approvals from the NRC and agreements in place with the DOE. No meaningful progress has been made on constructing a pilot reactor or first-of-a-kind commercial-scale deployment.
Musk v. Altman week 1: Elon Musk says he was duped, warns AI could kill us all, and admits that xAI distills OpenAI’s models | MIT Technology Review - In the first week of the landmark trial between Elon Musk and OpenAI, Musk took the stand in a crisp black suit and tie and argued that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and president Greg Brockman had deceived him into bankrolling the company. Along the way, he warned that AI could destroy us all and sat through revelations that he had poached OpenAI employees for his own companies. He even confessed, to some audible gasps in the courtroom, that his own AI company, xAI, which makes the chatbot Grok, uses OpenAI’s models to train its own. The federal courthouse in Oakland, California, was packed with armies of lawyers carrying boxes of exhibits, journalists typing away at their laptops, and a handful of concerned OpenAI employees. Outside, protesters lined the streets, carrying signs urging people to quit ChatGPT, boycott Tesla, or both. Musk looked calm and comfortable, slipping in the occasional quip in his distinct South African accent. But he was also full of remorse. “I was a fool who provided them free funding to create a startup,” Musk told the jury. He said when he cofounded OpenAI in 2015 with Altman and Brockman, he was donating to a nonprofit developing AI for the benefit of humanity, not to make the executives rich. “I gave them $38 million of essentially free funding, which they then used to create what would become an $800 billion company,” he said. Musk is asking the court to remove Altman and Brockman from their roles and to unwind the restructuring that allowed OpenAI to operate a for-profit subsidiary. The outcome of the trial could upend OpenAI’s race toward an IPO at a valuation approaching $1 trillion. Meanwhile, xAI is expected to go public as a part of Musk’s rocket company SpaceX as early as June, at a target valuation of $1.75 trillion.. This week’s testimony revolved around a central question of the trial: why Musk is suing OpenAI. Musk argued he was trying to save OpenAI’s mission to develop AI safely by restoring the company to its original nonprofit structure. OpenAI’s lawyer, William Savitt, who once represented Musk and his electric-car company Tesla, countered that Musk was “never committed to OpenAI being a nonprofit” and instead was suing to undermine his competitor. During his direct examination early in the week, Musk painted himself as a longtime advocate of AI safety. He said he cofounded OpenAI to create a “counterbalance to Google,” which was leading the AI race at the time. He said that when he asked Google cofounder Larry Page what happens if AI tries to wipe out humanity, Page told him, “That will be fine as long as artificial intelligence survives.” “The worst-case scenario is a Terminator situation where AI kills us all,” Musk later told the jury. Savitt stood at the lectern and argued that Musk was not a “paladin of safety and regulation.” As he cross-examined Musk in his sharp, surgical cadence, Savitt pointed out that xAI sued the state of Colorado in April over an AI law designed to prevent algorithmic discrimination. Musk’s lawyer, Steven Molo, sprang to his feet to object. He asked the judge if he, too, could weigh in on ChatGPT’s safety record. The lawyers then entered a heated debate about who was the true guardian of AI safety. The sparring continued the next morning. “We all could die as a result of artificial intelligence!” said Molo, suggesting that OpenAI could not be trusted to build AI safely. “Despite these risks, your client is creating a company that’s in the exact space,” Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers said sternly, referring to xAI. “I suspect there’s plenty of people who don’t want to put the future of humanity in Mr. Musk’s hands.” When the lawyers began talking over each other, the judge snapped. “This is not a trial on whether or not artificial intelligence has damaged humanity,” she said. As Savitt continued to cross-examine Musk, he pressed on the idea that Musk had never been committed to keeping OpenAI a nonprofit. He also claimed that Musk waited too long to sue OpenAI, filing after the statute of limitations ran out. Musk explained why he sued in 2024 rather than earlier, describing “three phases” in his views of OpenAI. In phase one, he was “enthusiastically supportive” of the company.” In phase two, “I started to lose confidence that they were telling me the truth,” he said. In phase three, “I’m sure they’re looting the nonprofit.” In 2017, Musk and other OpenAI cofounders discussed creating a for-profit subsidiary to raise enough capital to build artificial general intelligence—powerful AI that can compete with humans on most cognitive tasks. Musk wanted a majority interest in the subsidiary and the right to choose a majority of the board members. He also pitched having Tesla acquire OpenAI. (He left OpenAI in 2018.) “I was not opposed to there being a small for-profit that provides funding to the nonprofit,” he told the jury, “as long as the tail didn’t wag the dog.” But it was only in late 2022, Musk testified, that he “lost trust in Altman” and his commitment to keeping the company a nonprofit. The key moment came, he said, when he learned that Microsoft would invest $10 billion in OpenAI. “I texted Sam Altman, ‘What the hell is going on? This is a bait and switch,’” he told the jury. Microsoft would give $10 billion only if it expected “a very big financial return,” he said. But Savitt argued that Musk was really suing to undermine OpenAI as a competitor to his empire of tech companies. While he was on the board of OpenAI, Musk was also running Tesla and his brain-implant company, Neuralink. He founded xAI in 2023. Savitt pulled up an email that Musk had sent to a Tesla vice president in 2017 after hiring Andrej Karpathy, a founding member of OpenAI, to work at Tesla.“The OpenAI guys are gonna want to kill me. But it had to be done,” he wrote. When asked about it, Musk was flustered. He claimed Karpathy had already decided to leave OpenAI when he recruited him to work at Tesla. “I believe it’s a free world,” he said. Savitt pulled up another email that Musk sent to a cofounder at Neuralink in 2017. He wrote that they could “hire independently or directly from OpenAI.” When pressed about it, he sounded frazzled. “It’s a free country,” he said. “I can’t restrict their ability to hire people from other companies.” Savitt also pointed out that Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and X were socially beneficial for-profit companies, like OpenAI. He stressed that xAI was also a closed-source, for-profit company. But Musk claimed that xAI was not a real competitor to OpenAI. “We’re not currently tracking to reach AGI first,” he told the jury.
Musk 'was going to hit me,' OpenAI executive says at trial -OpenAI President Greg Brockman told a California jury Tuesday that Elon Musk physically threatened him during a 2017 confrontation, testifying that the billionaire stormed out after he was refused absolute control of the artificial intelligence company. "I actually thought he was going to hit me," Brockman said. The testimony came on the second day of Brockman's appearance at the trial of Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, in which the Tesla and SpaceX founder accuses the company of betraying its original nonprofit mission. According to Musk, the company pivoted to a for-profit structure and misappropriated his $38 million founding donation to build a company now valued at more than $850 billion. OpenAI counters that Musk left voluntarily after failing to seize majority control and has since become the company's direct competitor through his own AI venture, xAI. Under cross-examination by OpenAI attorney Sarah Eddy, Brockman sought to reframe diary entries that Musk's lawyers had used the previous day to portray him as a calculating opportunist. One November 2017 entry read: "It'd be wrong to steal the non-profit from him... That'd be pretty morally bankrupt." "It's very painful, very deeply personal writings that were never meant for the world to see, but there's nothing in there I'm ashamed of," Brockman said in court. Brockman also testified that when Musk announced his departure from OpenAI in February 2018, he told staff he intended to pursue AI development inside Tesla without regard for safety. "If the sheep are dictating safety and the wolves are not, then there's no purpose," Brockman said Musk allegedly told employees at the time. OpenAI's legal team argues the timeline proves Musk was fully aware of the company's commercial pivot -- and that his 2024 lawsuit, filed after he launched rival lab xAI, is meritless. Brockman said that OpenAI now spends $50 billion a year on computing power -- compared to just $30 million in 2017 -- showing how expensive the technology has become and why a charity-style organization could never have footed the bill. Brockman acknowledged Monday that his stake in OpenAI is valued at $30 billion. Altman is expected to testify as early as next week.
In OpenAI trial, former technology chief says Altman sowed 'chaos,' distrust among top executives (Reuters) - A former OpenAI technology chief testified on Wednesday in Elon Musk's lawsuit that CEO Sam Altman sowed distrust among top executives as the company forged ahead with developing and broadly deploying its powerful artificial intelligence software. “My concern was about Sam saying one thing to one person and completely the opposite to another person,” said Mira Murati, who was briefly CEO of OpenAI after its board temporarily forced out Altman in 2023. She said Altman was “creating chaos” and, at times, was deceptive with her and others. J Murati’s recorded testimony was played in Oakland, California, federal court, in the second week of a trial. Musk, the world's richest person, sued OpenAI in 2024 on the grounds that it improperly became a for-profit company, abandoned charitable goals and should turn back into a nonprofit. If successful, Musk could benefit by hindering the commercial ambitions of a competitor to his own startup xAI, which is now part of SpaceX . The trial could determine the future of OpenAI, which, as a leading AI firm, has tremendous influence over development of the advanced software and its deployment into schools, government agencies and businesses. Musk, a co-founder of OpenAI, is seeking $150 billion in damages to be paid by OpenAI and investor Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab to benefit the startup’s charitable arm. Murati, who left OpenAI and has co-founded her own AI startup, said Altman pitted executives against one another and undermined her role as technology chief. But she said she wanted him to remain CEO, and pressed board members for a fuller justification for ousting him in 2023. “OpenAI was at catastrophic risk of falling apart,” Murati said. “I was concerned about the company completely blowing up.” Another former OpenAI official, onetime board member Shivon Zilis, hinted at some of the turmoil as the company prepared for the blockbuster release of chatbot ChatGPT. She said the board "voiced extreme concern" about releasing ChatGPT "without any semblance of board communication." It's also about the incentive structure in which these tools are created. Asked whether she raised concerns about Altman internally, Zilis said "there had been a couple of instances." Zilis now works for Musk's Neuralink. She is also the mother of four of his children. Testimony from Musk, OpenAI President Greg Brockman and others has sketched out a series of conflicts among senior executives and founders about how to drive and support growth of the company and whether Musk, whose early funding was crucial to launching the startup, should become CEO. The trial has also brought surprises to light. Musk, for instance, attempted to settle with Brockman days before the trial began, and at one point felt like “a fool” for continuing to fund OpenAI.
Shivon Zilis, mother of four of Musk's children, takes the stand at OpenAI trial — Shivon Zilis, a longtime adviser to tech billionaire Elon Musk who also is the mother of four of his children, took the witness stand Wednesday in a trial that has given a rare glimpse into some of Silicon Valley’s complicated relationships.Zilis testified on the sixth day of the trial. Musk, a co-founder of artificial intelligence startup OpenAI, is suing two of his co-founders, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman, alleging that they are enriching themselves from what he says was supposed to remain a charitable endeavor.Zilis fits into the case in multiple ways. She not only worked at OpenAI beginning in 2016 but also served on its board of directors for several years, operating as a kind of bridge between Musk and the firm’s other co-founders even after they had fallen out. She left the OpenAI board in 2023, after Musk started a competitor AI company, xAI, and has also worked at Musk’s brain science startup, Neuralink, and at Tesla, where Musk is CEO.During initial questioning from a Musk lawyer, Zilis was asked about both her board service and her relationship with Musk.She described a complicated relationship with Musk. It began, she said, with “a one-off” at a corporate off-site event. Later, after she decided to have children as a single mother, she said Musk “offered to make a donation” as a platonic sperm donor. And later still, she said, their relationship evolved. She said they now have a romantic partnership.She said, though, that their relationship did not affect her decisions as an OpenAI board member.“I had an allegiance to the best outcome, AI for humanity,” she said.Zilis faced many questions on the stand about her loyalties. Asked by Musk lawyer Jennifer Schubert whether it was her job “to funnel information to Elon,” she responded, “Funnel? Absolutely not.”Schubert also asked about a message Zilis sent to Musk saying the “trust game is about to get tricky” regarding her interactions with other OpenAI board members. Zilis testified that she was not being duplicitous with Altman and Brockman.“I would have preferred it if I’d written ‘trust framework,’” rather than “trust game,” she testified. She said that back in 2017 the OpenAI co-founders were going through a “weird half-breakup” and “I think I wanted to figure out how to navigate, if I was still going to be a facilitation or a bridge.”At an earlier stage in the lawsuit in 2024, Zilis was a plaintiff alongside Musk in the claims against Altman and Brockman. She dropped out of the case as a plaintiff last year.Though she keeps a low profile in some ways, including rarely granting media interviews, Zilis is an important piece of Musk’s public image. She has 276,000 followers on X, the social media app that Musk owns, and regularly posts there about technology and family.
Musk promised his data center would reuse water. That's now stalled. - When Elon Musk brought xAI to Memphis, Tennessee, the company made a promise to locals worried that its data center would drain the local water supply: They would build a state-of-the-art water recycling plant, a national model for environmental best practices. Two years later, Musk’s first data center dedicated to his AI chatbot is up and running, but construction has come to a screeching halt at the promised water recycling plant, designed to clean municipal wastewater for use in cooling the superpowered computing center.The company announced it was stopping work on the water recycling plant in April, a month after its CEO touted it in a meeting with President Donald Trump. Now, Memphis residents are worried about their drinking water in an episode legal experts and scientists say is indicative of a broader pitfall of the data center boom.“At the end of the day, if they are not required and don’t have any legal commitments to provide this, then it’s anyone’s guess if and when they will continue construction on this plant,” said Haley Gentry, assistant director at the Tulane Institute on Water Resources Law and Policy.Musk, who owns xAI, posted on his social media site, X, that the company needs to “focus on finishing” a second data center in the area “and ensuring it is extremely stable, then we will build the water recycling plant.” Company representatives didn’t respond to requests for comment on why the project is delayed or whether it has a timeline for restarting construction. Caught in the confusion are Memphis residents and their fragile drinking water source. The community had been pushing for industrial water users, like the Tennessee Valley Authority, to use recycled water to protect the region’s aquifer — the sole source of Memphis drinking water. Scientists who have studied it say it is vulnerable to pollution, and city officials view a water recycling plant as a way to reduce strain on infrastructure and buffer against droughts.Company executives promoted the water recycling plant amid repeated lawsuits and a congressional probe accusing it of skirting Clean Air Act requirements at its data centers. It sought federal permits for the recycling facility early on.SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell even touted the water reuse plant at a White House meeting with Trump in March, where xAI and other artificial intelligence executives agreed to build their own power generation in a bid to prevent electricity price increases for households. “It’s actually quite important,” Shotwell said, calling the future plant “state of the art.”Some critics see ties to the upcoming stock market debut of xAI’s parent company, SpaceX, and a possible desire to tighten up on cost outlays or even a shift in focus to eventual space-based data centers, where water use wouldn’t be an issue.The water reuse plant had been “the only goodwill proposition the company made toward the people of Memphis,” said KeShaun Pearson, executive director of Memphis Community Against Pollution, a grassroots environmental justice group that has campaigned against xAI over its use of gas turbines without appropriate Clean Air Act permits.XAI promised to build such a facility that could be used by other customers, too. The company appeared committed to the project — breaking ground in October and receiving Clean Water Act permits in January. The company obtained new construction permits for the reuse facility in early March, according to local news.
College students are noticing their AI‑smoothed writing sounds strong—and not like them - Generative AI has become a part of everyday student life in Canada. While institutions focus on misconduct and detection, a deeper shift is happening, one that concerns identity.A recent KPMG Canada report finds that 73% of students use generative AI for schoolwork, and nearly half say it is their "first instinct." Also significant is the finding that many students also report feeling uneasy, worried that their use may be seen as cheating.The study is based on a survey of 684 university, college, vocational, and high school students within a larger sample of 3,804 Canadians (aged 18+), on how people are adopting generative AI.In my doctoral research on STEM education in Ontario colleges, I'm exploring how AI is transforming not only how students write but also how they perceive voice, legitimacy, and what it means to be themselves.Academic policies can define what constitutes cheating, but they do not address a more subtle concern: if AI helped write my assignment, will I still be seen as capable, and will my work represent me? Writing is more than a technical skill. It is one of the primary ways students structure and elaborate ideas, demonstrate competence, and position themselves as emerging professionals.This is particularly significant in STEM, where programs are often closely linked to specific career paths. Students are expected to begin positioning themselves as future professionals through how they communicate and present knowledge.At the same time, STEM fields are often seen as primarily technical or data-driven, with writing treated as secondary. Yet research shows that communication is central to scientific practice, shaping how knowledge is constructed, interpreted, and shared.Even beyond this, when science students write assignments, they also undertake what social and cultural theorists describe as "identity work." Through writing, students build narratives that let them explore how they might belong in particular worlds or professional fields. In my research, I examine how STEM programs operate as cultural worlds with implicit rules about what counts as smart, credible, and legitimate participation.Students interpret rules and adjust how they portray themselves in their work. This identity work is shaped by prior experiences, confidence with disciplinary language, and alignment between personal interests and the STEM career paths they see as being available to them. AI is now part of that process.In my research, I have observed college STEM classes, taken field notes, and spoken with a cohort of students multiple times over a two-year period about their work.I often hear a version of the same concern: the AI-generated draft is technically strong, but "it does not sound like me." This concern reflects the insight that "voice" or "sound" in writing is a signal of legitimacy.In my collaborative work on cultivating student agency, I use the idea of "becoming alive within science education" to describe moments when students can bring more of themselves—their perspectives, ways of thinking, and experiences—into how they learn and express ideas.Yet institutions often favor more standardized forms of writing. AI can intensify this by making a fluent, generic style instantly available. For some students, this lowers barriers and supports access. For others, it feels like self-erasure.One student put it this way: "It's better writing, yeah, it sounds good and helps get a better grade. But it's kinda generic. Like anyone could've written it, not just me."This recurring pattern in the data points to a broader tension: phrasing, structure, and tone in writing carry traces of identity, traces AI can smooth or erase.
Where AI in banking is running into roadblocks — Driss Temsamani says artificial intelligence has evolved so much that there are already robots that can make decisions in factories, but the prevailing technology isn't designed to support sophisticated artificial intelligence end-to-end."This is not about process automation, it's about something completely different," Temsamani, Citi's managing director, Americas and head of digital, said at American Banker's Payments Forum. "It will create new business models, new economic activities."
- Key insights: AI is growing quickly, but banks still face challenges in building interoperable agentic commerce payments.
- What's at stake: Consumers and businesses are slowly embracing new forms of AI, creating competitive pressure on banks.
- Expert quote: "It's very hard to put agents in control," said Eynat Guez, CEO and co-founder of Pagaya Global.
Citi payments exec Driss Temsamani said there's more work needed to bridge gaps to enable artificial intelligence to work broadly for payments and finance.
How Wells Fargo deploys AI in payments — The payments landscape is changing at a fast clip, and at Wells Fargo , AI is providing a new layer of intelligence that the bank is using to advance its payments business.
- Key insights: Wells Fargo's AI platform is designed to be model and cloud agnostic, allowing the bank to adapt to newer, larger and more specific models as they emerge.
- What's at stake: The payments landscape is changing at a fast clip, and banks will need to adapt quickly to stay ahead.
- Expert quote: "New capabilities such as tokenized deposits, programmable liquidity and near-real-time or atomic settlement didn't exist five years ago, but they will be table stakes five years from now," said Ather Williams III, head of global payments and liquidity and wholesale digital at Wells Fargo.
Ather Williams III, Wells Fargo's head of global payments and liquidity and wholesale digital, discussed the changing payments landscape and how banks can stay ahead during the keynote address at American Banker's Payments Forum 2026.
Jack Dorsey touts Block's AI-driven restructuring A little over two months since Block announced artificial intelligence-driven job cuts that affected nearly half of the company, CEO Jack Dorsey said the impact of the new technology is showing results despite a short-term financial loss.
- Key insights: Following a large AI-driven downsizing, Block's earnings beat Wall Street analysts expectations.
- What's at stake: Investors are looking for how AI-driven staff changes are affecting performance, and are supporting Block's moves thus far.
- Forward look: Block projected full-year 2026 EPS of $3.85, or annual growth of 62%. That's better than analyst estimates of $3.64.
The payments company posted strong adjusted earnings following a dramatic downsizing, which management attributed to the influence of artificial intelligence.
Coinbase laying off hundreds of employees, citing AI advancements - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced Tuesday that the cryptocurrency exchange is laying off hundreds of employees, pointing to the market’s current downswing and recent AI advancements. The company plans to reduce its workforce by about 14 percent, Armstrong said in an email to employees shared to the social platform X, which is equivalent to almost 700 jobs, based on the nearly 5,000 employees it reported at the end of last year. “Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both,” Armstrong wrote. He argued that Coinbase needs to “adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth” amid the current dip in the crypto market. The total value of the crypto market fell from about $4.3 trillion last October to almost $2.8 trillion as of early Tuesday. The price of bitcoin currently sits at nearly $81,000, down substantially from a record-high of $126,000 in October. Armstrong in Tuesday’s post also suggested that AI is “changing how we work,” emphasizing how the technology has accelerated what workers can accomplish. “All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company,” he added. “The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core.” He said the company will be “concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents” and experimenting with smaller teams, including one-person teams. Several major tech companies have also announced layoffs this year. Amazon announced in January that it was cutting 16,000 jobs, while Meta said in April that it was laying off about 8,000 employees, CNBC noted.
Coinbase cuts 14% of staff, citing crypto slump and AI - CEO Brian Armstrong said the company will flatten its org chart to five management layers and concentrate hiring around "AI-native" pods.
- Key insight: Coinbase is pairing the layoffs with a structural overhaul — capping management at five layers below the CEO and COO, requiring all leaders to remain individual contributors and concentrating hiring around what CEO Brian Armstrong called "AI-native pods."
- What's at stake: About 700 Coinbase employees will lose their jobs effective immediately, joining a broader 2026 wave of crypto and tech layoffs at firms including Block, Crypto.com and Algorand.
- Expert quote: Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev told Bloomberg that the crypto winter is "probably the real reason for most of the cuts" and that AI is likely an "easy excuse."
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.
Affirm's Levchin rejects AI layoffs Fintechs have been pinning layoffs on artificial intelligence, but Affirm CEO Max Levchin said the buy now/pay later lender had no plans to trim its headcount despite leaning more into AI for software engineering.
- Key insights: Affirm CEO Max Levchin told analysts Thursday that the company was not planning any layoffs due to AI even though it was using the technology more for software engineering.
- What's at stake: Fintechs have been trimming their headcounts and attributing the cost savings to AI.
- Expert quote: "We are not planning AI-related layoffs, full stop," Affirm CEO Max Levchin said.
Affirm CEO Max Levchin said that the company did not have any plans for AI-spurred layoffs despite the fact that it was using the technology more for software engineering.
Trump family crypto firm sues billionaire investor Justin Sun for defamation - World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s cryptocurrency company, is suing billionaire investor Justin Sun for defamation after he accused the firm of improperly freezing his tokens.In a lawsuit filed Monday, the company argued that Sun engaged in a “campaign of defamatory statements” on the social platform X.“Sun’s posts impugn World Liberty, a Florida-based decentralized finance company, and its governance integrity and business relationships, causing substantial and ongoing harm to World Liberty,” the lawsuit reads.Sun, who founded the crypto company TRON, was a major early investor in World Liberty Financial. He purchased about 3 billion tokens from World Liberty Financial in the months after it was launched by President Trump and his sons in the fall of 2024.The dispute between the two parties has been brewing since last summer, when Sun first posted on X that his tokens had been frozen. He filed a lawsuit against World Liberty Financial in late April, accusing the company of “engaging in an illegal scheme to seize property.”However, World Liberty Financial argues that it exercised “authority that was clearly and repeatedly disclosed to Sun” when the company froze his tokens.It alleges that the billionaire engaged in misconduct, including “suspected short selling” and “straw purchases” of tokens on behalf of undisclosed third parties. The company also accused Sun of “hiring influencers and deploying fake social-media ‘bot’ accounts to amplify his lies.”Sun dismissed the lawsuit Monday as “nothing more than a meritless PR stunt,” adding in a post on X, “I stand by my actions and look forward to defeating the case in court.”
Fed's Cook: Tokenization won't replace traditional finance - Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said Friday that tokenization is unlikely to replace traditional finance, but instead could add efficiency across the financial system.
- Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said she does not believe tokenization will replace traditional finance. Instead, she sees it as a development that could help address existing friction points in the financial system.
- Expert quote: "Fully assessing and understanding tradeoffs between opportunities and risks is how we enable innovations to scale safely and sustainably." — Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook
- What's at stake: While tokenization could yield efficiency gains, it could also create cybersecurity vulnerabilities and gaps in oversight as trading becomes more continuous and automated, Cook said.
Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said Friday that she believes tokenization could improve efficiency across the financial system, including faster settlement times and more effective recordkeeping. But those advantages will take place within traditional finance rather than supplanting it, she said.
BankThink Bitcoin's Overton window of opportunity is closing -There was a time, more than a decade ago, when a small group of people were in possession of a Really Big Idea That Could Change the World. Ideas of course are a dime a dozen, and changing the world happens very infrequently, a testament to how hard it is to turn an idea into a Really Big Idea That Changes the World. But these people had that chance. The idea was good, the world was moving in that direction, it was the kind of thing people could use but didn't know it yet, and importantly the incumbents had no interest. Bitcoin had the potential of digital assets all to itself for several years; now the traditional financial system is figuring out how to build them. The 21st century financial system that digital currency promised is being built, but by banks, not by the bitcoin crowd.
Revealed: The Economic Principles Behind btcecosystem's Efficiency—Earning $37,500 Daily As the Federal Reserve struggles within a quagmire of global debt, and as central banks worldwide frantically fire up their printing presses in a desperate attempt to patch up their tattered balance sheets, a true form of "physical sovereignty" is rising. This is not about paper-based credit; it is about physics, thermodynamics, and immutable mathematics. Beneath the Australian sun, the BTC Ecosystem is transforming surplus green energy into the "hard currency" of the digital age—computational power. This is no longer merely mining; it is an energy arbitrage play—a struggle for survival. For decades, the global financial system has rested upon a fragile consensus: that governments can indefinitely sustain prosperity through the expansion of debt. However, amidst geopolitical fragmentation and the persistent erosion of fiat currencies' purchasing power, "smart money" is now fleeing from those endlessly replicable paper assets. The value of Bitcoin (BTC) as "digital gold" requires little elaboration; yet, its true moat lies not in its code, but in the computing power—the Hashrate—that underpins it. Behind every single hash operation lies a tangible expenditure of energy, measured in joules. From a macro perspective, computing power represents the monetization of energy. Traditional, energy-intensive mining models are currently facing intense scrutiny amidst a global crackdown on carbon emissions. However, this very situation presents a prime opportunity—a perfect "regulatory arbitrage"—for forward-thinking capital.BTC Ecosystem (operated by ADAPT ECOSYSTEM PTY LTD, which is regulated by ASIC) is deeply rooted in Australia—a geopolitically secure region boasting the world's premier potential for clean energy. By directly converting solar and wind energy into Bitcoin hash rate, BTC Ecosystem is effectively executing a strategy of "energy arbitrage."Insulation from Price Volatility: By utilizing proprietary clean energy sources or long-term supply contracts, mining costs are locked in at exceptionally low levels.Mitigation of ESG Scrutiny: Green hash rate currently stands as the only digital asset capable of accessing mainstream, compliant channels and withstanding the impact of future "carbon taxes."From the user's perspective, independently operating mining rigs is becoming increasingly precarious—plagued by supply chain disruptions, hardware depreciation, and geopolitical constraints. The true strategic imperative is "asset-light operations, physically anchored returns."The core logic of the BTC Ecosystem is this: You do not need to own the mining hardware; you simply need to own the "rights to the output."Through its highly automated cloud-based hashrate deployment system, investors can inject capital directly into a compliant framework that has undergone rigorous ASIC auditing. This constitutes not merely an investment, but a form of "Hashrate Hedging":
- Inflation Protection: As fiat currencies depreciate, BTC returns—derived from physical energy inputs—inherently possess anti-inflationary properties.
- Daily Cash Flow: During periods of market volatility, daily-settled returns (with certain large-scale contracts generating daily outputs reaching up to $37,500) provide a depth of liquidity that is virtually unattainable within traditional financial markets.
Bitcoin rips past $82,000, shorts liquidated after President Trump halts Hormuz operation sending oil price spiralling -- Bitcoin rose above $82,000 as oil prices tumbled amid a powerful tailwind from a sudden and dramatic de-escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions.Data from CryptoSlate showed that BTC extended a weeklong rebound that has lifted its value by more than 7% this week after President Donald Trump paused a US military operation in the Strait of Hormuz.BTC's upward price movement led to the liquidation of over $200 million from short traders during the last 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data.This came as reports of a possible US-Iran framework eased fears that the conflict would continue disrupting one of the world’s most important energy corridors.Following the news, crude oil prices entered a freefall, with Brent crude plunging by 10% to $97 per barrel, effectively erasing a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up since late February. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) mirrored the collapse, sliding 9.82% to $88 per barrel.The catalyst for the shifting global tides began with Trump’s decision to pause “Project Freedom,” the US operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to stranded commercial ships.Trump said the pause would be short while Washington tested whether a final agreement with Iran could be reached.The move marked a change in tone after weeks of military pressure around one of the world’s most important energy corridors, where shipping restrictions had fed volatility across crude, refined products, and Asian energy markets.Meanwhile, this pause was followed by reports that the US and Iran were moving toward a memorandum of understanding aimed at halting the conflict and creating room for broader negotiations.The proposed framework, led on the US side by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, would seek to normalize commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz while opening a path toward a wider settlement. Following this news, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran.” Notably, Tehran also softened its public posture.For markets, the immediate effect of these developments was visible in oil. Crude prices fell sharply as traders reduced the war premium tied to Hormuz disruption.That gave Bitcoin and other risk assets a clearer macro backdrop, as lower oil prices eased fears that an energy shock would feed inflation, delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and tighten financial conditions.Bitcoin’s climb above $82,000 put it back near a supply zone traders have watched since the market broke down earlier this year, with the $80,000 to $85,000 range emerging as a key test for the rebound.That zone combines former support, short-term profit-taking, and new leveraged positioning. A clean move through it could strengthen the market’s longer-term structure, while another rejection would suggest the rally still depends on fragile macro relief rather than durable spot demand.
Oil price bets ahead of Iran war news totalled $7bn, shows reporting - A series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by US President Donald Trump, according to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data. The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the US administration to warn staff against using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway. Reuters could not establish who placed the bets and whether they originated in the US or elsewhere. They included short positions, or bets that prices would fall, for derivatives including ICE, CME crude, diesel and gasoline futures. The bets took place on two major exchanges that host benchmark global oil and fuel futures trade: the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Both exchanges declined to comment. The CME is investigating the trades, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. The well-timed trades have triggered calls from legal experts and lawmakers for regulators to investigate whether they were based on inside information or leaks. Traders first spotted unusual trades on March 23. The trades were executed minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, triggering an oil price fall. The same pattern repeated on April 7, before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran that triggered a fall of as much as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent futures. It happened again on April 17, when Iranian officials and Trump spoke about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and then again on April 21, when Trump extended the ceasefire. Reuters and other media reported those trades on the most actively traded front-month contracts for the two global crude benchmarks, Brent LCOc1 and West Texas Intermediate CLc1. The value of those bets on those four days in March and April stood at around $2.6 billion, according to Reuters initial calculations. The US Justice Department, CFTC and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, a further analysis of trading data across exchanges and contracts showed traders executed similar bets at exactly the same dates and times for European diesel and US gasoline futures as well as longer-dated contracts for Brent and WTI, bringing the total to around $7 billion, based on Reuters calculations. A sell bet — or short selling — means the person executing the trade borrows the derivative from a counterparty, sells it and later buys it back more cheaply when the price falls, keeping the remaining cash as profit. On March 23 and on April 7, 17 and 21, oil prices plunged by over 10%. Reuters calculations show that a short seller with $7 billion could have made hundreds of millions of dollars in profits, depending on the timing of the bets. The trades look "well informed" as they preceded major announcements, said Adi Imsirovic, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and a veteran oil trader. US authorities, such as the CFTC, can access exchange data to trace who placed the trades and investigate if it decides to, he added. On Thursday, ABC reported the US Department of Justice was investigating $2.6 billion in oil trades related to the Iran war. The DOJ was not immediately available for comment. The CFTC's enforcement director said in March the agency was aware of speculation regarding insider trading in CFTC-regulated markets and was "watching". "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who helped design the modern system of setting oil prices at pricing agency Platts in the 1990s. Brent crude and low-sulphur gasoil futures trade on the Intercontinental Exchange, while West Texas Intermediate crude and gasoline futures trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group. On March 23, Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure at 1105 GMT. LSEG data shows that between 1049 and 1050 GMT that day, traders placed bets on 20,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures. The selling was spread across the first, second and third month contracts, worth some $1.35 billion, plus an additional $122 million in ICE gasoil — diesel — futures LGOc1, LGOc2, LGOc3, and $81 million in US gasoline futures RBc1, RBc2, RBc3, all worth a total $2.2 billion. "Those quantities are not going to escape scrutiny," said Robert Frenchman, a lawyer at Dynamis LLP in New York, who has previously worked on white-collar crime and insider trading cases. Trump's March 23 ceasefire announcement triggered a decline in crude futures of as much as 15%, one of the largest intraday drops on record. The announcement also sent gasoline and gasoil futures down around 12%. On April 7, sell orders on oil and gasoline prices worth $2.12 billion took place between 1944 and 1945 GMT, well after the market settled, a time when volumes are usually thin. Minutes later, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. On April 17, nearly $2 billion in Brent, WTI, gasoil and gasoline futures were sold at 1224-1225 GMT, minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Hormuz would reopen, followed by multiple social media posts by Trump and US officials. On April 21, some $830 million worth of Brent and WTI contracts were sold just 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.
BankThink Crypto guidance is a step forward, but only Congress can finish the job - The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission's joint interpretive guidance on digital assets issued in mid-March is a long-overdue step toward clarity. After years of regulation by enforcement, highlighted by the SEC's high-profile actions against exchanges like Coinbase, regulators have finally aligned on a more coherent approach to interpreting existing law. This is meaningful progress; however, it is not enough to support American digital asset innovation because the guidance offers direction, not certainty, and markets do not run on direction alone. Passing the CLARITY Act would provide the durable legal framework that market participants, investors and builders need to commit capital and build for the long term in the United States, writes Maghnus Mareneck.
- Key insight: Interpretive guidance from regulators does not deliver the kind of certainty that companies want as they consider expanding into the world of digital assets.
- What's at stake: Without durable law, the U.S. could lag behind jurisdictions that have already implemented comprehensive frameworks, such as the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation.
- Forward look: Passing the CLARITY Act would provide the durable legal framework that market participants, investors and builders need to commit capital and build for the long term in the United States.
Interpretive guidance from regulators does not deliver the kind of certainty that companies want as they consider expanding into the world of digital assets. Congressional action on the CLARITY Act is the answer.
Negotiators brush off bank concerns with stablecoin-yield compromise — Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., dismissed bankers' concerns with their new compromise on stablecoin yield.
- Key insight: Bank trades spent the weekend and beginning of this week pushing back on provisions in the Tillis-Alsobrooks language that they say would allow loopholes for crypto firms to offer yield-like rewards for holding stablecoins on their platforms.
- What's at stake: Banks have long feared that such arrangements could mimic bank deposits and thus drain deposits from the banking system.
- Forward look: Banks' concerns, especially those of the largest institutions, could still delay a markup on the crypto bill.
Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., said that they "agree to disagree" with bank lobbyists on their objections to their newly released stablecoin-yield provision. "Congress must have a clear understanding of what regulatory and supervisory failures occurred to allow the collapse of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank," Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said in a statement introducing bipartisan legislation to advance Federal Reserve transparency and accountability.
Stablecoin yield debate central in GENIUS rule comments - Banks and crypto firms are talking past each other on whether consumers should earn yield on stablecoins, highlighting a rift between the industries that has kept the two sides at loggerheads on crypto market legislation for months.
- Key insight: Banks and crypto firms at loggerheads over whether Congress intended to block consumers receiving any value for storing their stablecoins on platforms, or whether the GENIUS Act's prohibition was intended to be a narrow, nominal prohibition.
- Expert Quote: "We do not see a middle ground that would satisfy the banks and the major crypto platforms as we believe some crypto platforms want the ability to keep paying yield to encourage retail investors to keep their liquidity in their crypto wallets … a nonstarter for the banks." Jaret Seiberg, TD Cowen analyst.
- Forward look: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's final rule could determine whether third-party rewards are allowed if further legislation remains stalled.
During a meeting of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Board of Directors this week, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said the OCC is continuing to "shine a spotlight on the actions of agencies and certain banks" related to potentially unlawfully debanking customers. Public comments on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's GENIUS Act implementing regulations highlighted the rift between banks and crypto firms over the permissibility of yield on stablecoin holdings, an issue that has stalled crypto market structure legislation for months.
BankThink Poking holes -- well, loopholes -- in the stablecoin-rewards debate - Late on Friday, our Claire Williams reported, two senators released a possible compromise on the thorny question of whether or not stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay interest on deposits – I'm sorry, I mean customer balances. Sens. Thomas Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, and Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat from Maryland, came up with this bipartisan idea: that rewards on stablecoins would be banned if the balances were "economically or functionally equivalent" to bank deposits. The debate over how to define yield in terms of stablecoin rewards feels like the debate over how to define usury in medieval Europe.
Western Union launches its own stablecoin - Western Union's previously announced stablecoin is now live.
- Key insight: Western Union has officially released its USDPT stablecoin on Solana through a partnership with Anchorage Digital Bank.
- Expert quote: "A 170-year-old payments network signaling that regulated digital dollar infrastructure is now core to global money movement matters more than the token itself." —Matter Labs CEO Alex Gluchowski
- Forward look: The stablecoin yield question for the CLARITY Act could impact Western Union's unit economics for USDPT, according to experts.
The company is officially releasing a digital asset product that it first announced back in October.
Paystand aims a stablecoin at lingering holes in business automation --While Paystand has used blockchain technology for years as a selling point for business payments, the company says there's still room for improvement."We found there's a hole in the market," Jeremy Almond, CEO of Paystand, told American Banker. His company is launching its own stablecoin as an option to digitize B2B and cross-border payments.
- Key insights: Paystand plans to release its own B2B stablecoin.
- What's at stake: B2B and cross-border payments are a primary use case for stablecoins, creating an addressable market and competitors for Paystand.
- Forward look: The company will initially launch the stablecoin in its own network, and will then expand later in 2026.
The B2B payments fintech contends the digital asset can wring inefficiencies out of corporate payments processing.
Morgan Stanley debuts crypto trading, undercuts rivals on price - Morgan Stanley is rolling out cryptocurrency trading on its E-Trade platform with a dig at rivals: cheaper pricing. The pilot program offers rates better than Coinbase, Robinhood and Charles Schwab and will be rolled out to all of Morgan Stanley's 8.6 million E-Trade users later this year.
BankThink The crypto "one-stop shop" is a solution nobody actually wants -Mainstream financial services firms moving into the crypto realm are rightly skittish about consolidating trading, custody, lending, staking and settlement in a single provider. The crypto industry is, instead, entering a world of "co-opetition," writes Thomas Chaffee, of GlobalStake.
- Key insight: The crypto industry is entering an era of "co-opetition," in which rival companies simultaneously cooperate and compete for mutual benefit.
- What's at stake: Institutions that centralize everything with one provider may find themselves out of alignment with supervisory expectations.
- Forward look: As digital asset markets mature, the firms that embrace co-opetition will be better positioned than those attempting to own every layer.
For years, crypto's largest firms have promised institutions they could bring all their business under one roof — a one-stop shop. Trade here. Custody here. Stake here. Borrow here. Settle here. A single team with deep expertise would meet a firm's every need.
Customers sue Chime over alleged Iran-linked hack - Plaintiffs say Team 313 stole Social Security numbers and IDs. Chime says no data left its systems. None of the suits has its own evidence.
- Key insight: Chime told customers during the April 1 outage that their money and personal information were secure — directly contradicting the breach allegations now in court.
- What's at stake: If a court finds the company suffered a breach, Chime could face exposure under state breach-notification laws and the SEC's 2023 cybersecurity-disclosure rule.
- Supporting data: Multiple cybersecurity firms track Team 313 under different names — Void Manticore at Check Point, Storm-0842 at Microsoft, BANISHED KITTEN at CrowdStrike.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.
Why US Bank built its own BNPL program — As buy now/pay later gains more popularity with merchants and consumers, banks are weighing whether to toss their hat in the ring and offer the short-term lending product.
- Key insights: U.S. Bank has waded into the buy now/pay later industry with its own program that it built to solve its merchant customers' pain points.
- What's at stake: Banks are mixed in their adoption of BNPL and installment lending. Those that offer it or are planning on offering it say that the primary motivating factor is to stay competitive.
- Supporting data: About half of the respondents in American Banker's BNPL research said they offer BNPL products to customers through either a proprietary platform, a white-labelled solution or an embedded partnership with firms such as Affirm and Klarna.
Banks are mixed in their adoption of buy now/pay later and installment lending, according to American Banker research. Those that offer or are planning to offer it say that the primary motivating factor is to stay competitive.
How banks reach for the 'top of the wallet' — For Anuj Arora, the stakes and the benefits of getting digital wallets right is clear. "We have realized that the customers that use [our card] in a digital wallet spend four to five times more than non-wallet users," Arora, director and executive product manager at Barclays, said Tuesday at American Banker's Payments Forum in San Francisco. "These are your highest engaged customers."
- Key insights: Banks face challenges in serving digital wallets, which are generally operated by third parties.
- What's at stake: Digital wallets have rapidly become mainstream globally.
- Expert quote: "The bank is the plumbing," Barclays' Anuj Arora said. "If you do a bad job there, you are going to lose the customer. How easy are you making it for the customer?"
If a card is immediately not easy and safe to use in an external app, consumers will quickly turn to another card, executives from Regions Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners and Barclays warned American Banker's Payments Forum.
Exclusive: Warren says OCC rule limits oversight to 5 banks — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a letter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that a proposed rule would roll back oversight for all but the very largest banks.
- Key insight: Sen. Elizabeth Warren says a proposed rule from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency would lift its strictest oversight standards from all but five U.S. banks, fewer than the agency's estimate of eight.
- What's at stake: Warren's push on deregulation is growing in importance as Republicans' control of both chambers of Congress is looking increasingly in peril.
- Forward look: The OCC is unlikely to withdraw the rule as Warren demands, but her letter signals that progressive Democrats will keep pressure on bank regulators if they retake the House and/or the Senate after this year's midterm elections.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, warned in a letter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Thursday that its proposed rollback leaves regional banks dangerously unsupervised.
SEC slashed offer to Wells Fargo whistleblower by $125M -Michael Bacon, a former Wells Fargo executive who became a government whistleblower, is appealing an SEC order that would pay him around $55 million, down substantially from the agency's original offer of roughly $180 million.
- Key insight: The SEC slashed the size of the award it offered to a bank whistleblower shortly after President Trump's choice to lead the agency, Paul Atkins, took office.
- What's at stake: An attorney for the whistleblower, former Wells Fargo Chief Security Officer Michael Bacon, says the SEC has given shifting rationales for its determinations.
- Expert quote: "Nobody's arguing about his role. They're just coming up with creative ways to pay him less and less." — Vincent McKnight, Bacon's attorney
The Securities and Exchange Commission initially offered $179.5 million to Michael Bacon, who provided key information to the government about Wells Fargo's fake-accounts scandal. But shortly after SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins took office, the amount was sharply reduced.
Appeals judge sends Illinois interchange case back to district court - Banking groups that sued the state of Illinois over its law barring banks from charging interchange fees on taxes and tips cheered an appeals court ruling remanding the law to a lower court and vowed to keep the law going into effect, which is slated for July 1.
Treasury meets with life insurers to discuss private credit - Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent on Thursday met with state insurance commissioners and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners to discuss recent developments in private credit markets.
- Key insight: Treasury officials are investigating if insurers' pivot into private credit creates hidden, unmanageable risks for policyholders.
- What's at stake: The lack of public reporting in private debt markets has regulators concerned about whether those investments are sound, and whether they could pose a risk to financial stability.
- Forward look: A sudden downturn in private credit could force insurers to sell assets rapidly, triggering broader market-wide financial contagion.
The Treasury Department held a high-stakes huddle with state insurance officials to discuss risks associated with the rapid growth of private credit in the economy and whether those investments could pose systemic vulnerabilities.
Is private credit a new risk for the Federal Home Loan banks? Insurance company borrowings from the Federal Home Loan banks — including, notably, from subsidiaries of private credit firms — have hit record levels, even as regulators and analysts are increasingly scrutinizing insurers' growing appetite for private credit.
- Key insight: Insurance company borrowing from the Federal Home Loan banks hit a record $177.8 billion last year, a 10% jump from borrowing levels in 2024, which itself was a 13% increase over 2023.
- What's at stake: Insurers are utilizing "spread investing" programs to secure low-cost cash advances from the system and reinvest into higher-yielding investments, including private credit.
- Forward look: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners says state regulators have increased their scrutiny to ensure insurers' capital buffers are adequate.
Life insurers' borrowings from the Federal Home Loan banks has increased in recent years, raising concerns about opaque, private credit investments and how it intersects with the Federal Home Loan banks' housing mission.
How FHA's new loss-mit rules are squeezing servicers -A rule change requiring trial modifications before other loss-mitigation options is creating workflow and liquidity challenges, especially for smaller servicers without deep resources.Last year's update in the Federal Housing Administration's "waterfall" of actions servicers must take when borrowers go delinquent is creating a surge in trial modifications that presents a particular concern for less sizable players.
Housing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Is in Tatters - By Wolf Richter - Late last year and early this year, the story was that dropping mortgage rates, powered by big rate cuts from the Fed, would unleash demand in the housing market in the spring – the key spring selling season – and that sales volume would take off and that Realtors’ commissions would rocket to the moon. And so that didn’t happen. Inflation has been reheating for months before the war and before the energy price spike. The energy price spike in March and April then added to that resurgence of inflation. The Fed is now talking about a possibility of rate hikes as next move. And longer-term Treasury yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, rose in March and April in response to inflation fears. Mortgage rates, which track those Treasury yields but are higher, rose back to the 6.5% range. And the housing market remained in the same-old-same-old frozen pattern that it has been in for four years after the price explosion from mid-2020 through mid-2022. And it continued in the latest week. Mortgage applications to purchase a home – a measure of demand that may become actual home sales in the future, so a forward-looking indicator of home sales – dipped in the current survey week and remained near rock-bottom levels, down by 34% from the same week in 2019, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. That level of mortgage applications is below even the collapse of mortgage applications during the lockdown in the spring of 2020. The average weekly mortgage rate for conforming 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 6.45% in the latest reporting week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. For the past 7 weeks, this measure of mortgage rates has been back in the middle of the 6-7% range, the range it has been in since September 2022, except for some breakouts to the upside. These mortgage rates are not high in a historical context; they’re only high in the context of the Fed’s QE which started in 2009 and took on mega-proportions during the pandemic. Under its QE programs, the Fed bought trillions of dollars of securities, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which repressed mortgage rates below 3%. But this massive amount of reckless money printing was part of the toxic mix at the time that triggered the worst inflation in 40 years. With mortgage rates below 3% and inflation at 9% – negative “real” mortgage rates, better than free money – home prices exploded and are now too high. And that inflation has refused to go back into the bottle. Pending home sales for March – deals that were signed in March but haven’t closed yet – also remained at rock bottom, down by 30% from March 2019. In January, they’d dropped to a record low in the data by the National Association of Realtors going back to mid-2010, and in February and March, they inched up from that record low. And the much-hyped spring selling season has turned into the fourth dud in a row: 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026.
Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Chip Plants, Powerplants, Office Buildings: Boom one End, Bust the Other -- by Wolf Richter - Of the trillions of dollars to be sunk into the AI-related capital expenditure mania – nearly $3 trillion through 2028, per a research report by PitchBook today – only a small portion is going to the actual construction costs of data centers, which is what we track here, but they nevertheless show the trend of the AI spending mania. The vast majority of data-center costs is going to AI servers and related equipment in those data centers, and to equipment to supply the servers with power, and to the equipment and infrastructure to connect the data centers to the internet, none of which are included in construction costs here. Construction spending on data centers soared by 34% year-over-year in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $50 billion, up by 437% since the beginning of 2021 and up by 688% since the beginning of 2018, according to data from the Census Bureau today. It takes years to plan, permit, and build data centers – now amid growing local opposition – and the spending today was originally planned some time ago. This boom in data-center construction activity has triggered various supply constraints and bottlenecks, ranging from labor, such as electricians, to electrical equipment, including on-site power-generation equipment when grid power is insufficient. No one was prepared for this kind of explosion of concentrated investment. Office construction spending fell by 9% year-over-year in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $46 billion, the lowest since 2015, amid the severe problems in the office sector of commercial real estate. Spending on data center construction (blue line) exceeded spending on office construction (red line) for the first time ever in January. Boom and bust: Spending on Power Plants & Distribution rose by 5.5% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $125 billion, up by 41% since the beginning of 2021. This includes construction spending on power plants and transmission infrastructure. It takes years to plan and build a power plant, including regulatory approvals. That process lags far behind what data centers need. In addition, utilities and power generators are worried about an untimely end of the AI investment mania that might leave them with newly-built stranded assets when the investment bubble implodes, and they’ve been proceeding with some care. Semiconductor plants are included in the category of factories for computers, electronic & electrical equipment factories. At the peak, this category accounted for roughly half of total factory construction spending. Construction spending on those factories dropped to an annual rate of $70 billion in March, down sharply from the peak in 2024, but still up by a huge 768% from early 2021. And there is a second wave of semiconductor plants getting lined up, including SpaceX’s Terafab facility in Grimes County, Texas, with an estimated capital investment of $55 billion for the first phase, and total capital investment, “if additional phases are constructed,” of $119 billion, according to a Grime County public hearing notice. The construction phase of some of the plants that were started a few years ago is now finished, and the equipment is getting installed, and in some, production is getting ramped up. But these data here are just the construction costs of the buildings and do not include the cost of the production equipment in the building that dwarf the costs of the building. What’s important for the US economy is the future production at these plants after they ramp up — decades of production interlaced with further investments. Construction spending is just an indicator of how much production capacity is getting added at a point in time to the US manufacturing base. Construction spending on factories for chemical products, the second-largest category of factory construction, jumped by 9.9% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $46 billion in March, up by 57% from the beginning of 2021. Overall spending on factory construction in March dropped to an annual rate of $189 billion, that was still up by 154% from the beginning of 2021, still a massive increase in spending on factories compared to a few years ago. All these factories will be highly automated plants with relatively little low-skilled manual labor. No one is building a sweatshop factory in the US as labor is too expensive, and there won’t be a surge of low-skilled manual labor coming with these factories. But industrial robots cost the same anywhere in the world; they’re the great equalizer. How much of this growth is inflation? Construction cost inflation for nonresidential buildings has started to accelerate over the past three months and in March rose by 3.3% year-over-year, according to the Producer Price Index for Construction of Nonresidential Buildings. The big spike of construction cost inflation occurred in 2020 through 2022 (+36% in two years). In 2023 and 2024, costs remained relatively flat, with inflation near 0% over those two years. Then in the second half of 2025, construction costs began rising again. By comparison: Year-over-year, the PPI for construction costs is up by 3.3%, while spending on data-center construction is up by 34%; since January 2021, the PPI is up by 36%, while spending on data-center construction by 437%
That gas tax holiday is looking rosier - -Some governors are warming to the idea of a gasoline tax holiday as the Iran war enters its third month and prices at the pump climb toward $4.50 per gallon.Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced Tuesday that he would freeze the state’s gasoline tax, which was slated to increase in July, and issue an emergency order to cut the tax by 10 cents per gallon. The tax is currently 26.4 cents per gallon.The Democratic governor, a potential presidential candidate, blamed the Trump administration’s actions in Iran for rising prices, saying the president started a war “without thinking through the costs to the American people.”“They failed to address the basic question of how they would secure the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to the waterway critical to transporting roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. “They thought the war would be short, that the Iranian people would rise up. They were wrong, and now the American people are paying for it.”
Diesel prices squeeze US farmers ‘barely getting by’ amid tariffs and drought - It has been a tough few years for American farmers.Squeezed last year by tariffs, they lost an estimated $34.6bn when former trade partners stopped buying. Now, the war with Iran has not only depleted crucial fertilizer stores but has also driven diesel fuel up to record prices. Like the trucking industry, agriculture relies heavily on diesel to run machinery, as diesel-powered engines are more fuel efficient than gasoline-powered ones.Worst of all, the price increase is taking place during the spring planting season.“These rising costs are hitting us at the wrong time here in the north country in New York,” said Blake Gendebien, who owns a 1,200-acre dairy farm with 500 cows in Lisbon, New York. “I use 20,000 gallons of fuel to get my crops in the ground and harvested.” Last April, he paid about $2.65 a gallon for off-road diesel. Off-road diesel is for vehicles used off public roads and is therefore exempt from federal and state excise taxes. Depending on the state, it can be anywhere between $0.20 and $0.80 cheaper a gallon than on-road diesel.This year, it’s pushing $5 a gallon. According to the most recent statistics, 86% of farmers in America run small family farms, defined as having a gross income of $350,000 a year or less. And the majority of those farms have high-risk profit margins of 10% or less. So rising diesel costs pose a serious threat to their ability to stay in business.“It’s a massive cost for farmers that are already barely, barely getting by,” Gendebien said. When Sam Frost recently purchased diesel for the family farm in the Fountain Creek Valley south of Colorado Springs, he didn’t look hard at the price. “I’m still gonna go buy fuel regardless,” he said.A fourth-generation farmer, Frost is CEO of Frost Livestock Company and focuses on its hay production, which makes about $200,000 in gross income. His brother, Will, is in charge of their organic meat and vegetable production, which they sell locally through CSA boxes and farmers markets. That part of the operation grosses about $100,000 a yearBetween them, they operate two diesel trucks to transport their goods and eight tractors to plow, plant and harvest about 425 acres. On 2 March, Frost paid $3.13 a gallon for on-road diesel for the trucks and $3.08 a gallon for off-road diesel. Last month, the price for off-road diesel jumped to $4.43 a gallon in his area. He would normally have ordered twice as much diesel, but he hasn’t yet started preparing his fields for planting due to drought.To weather the increased fuel costs, Frost is looking to limit other spending. Still, he will probably end up passing along some of the costs to his consumers. On the other side of the country, in north-east North Carolina, cotton farmer Julius Tillery is changing his planting process to minimize the amount of diesel fuel he uses.“I’m very careful on my planting dates,” he said of his 125-acre farm, which his great-great-grandfather started in the early 20th century. “I can’t afford to plant crops in bad climates, so the production window becomes smaller.”Before the price increase, Tillery might have used some of his fuel supply to plant earlier in the season – always a gamble because an early frost could kill the crop. But not now: “I don’t have that margin any more.”To save money, he’s also fueling himself with lower-quality sustenance: “more ramen noodles”.
Michigan diesel hits all-time high as energy crisis deepens -— Amid ongoing production disruptions and rising energy costs tied to the Iran crisis and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the average price of diesel fuel in Michigan surpassed $6 per gallon last Sunday, reaching the highest level ever recorded in data tracked by the AAA.Although diesel prices later dipped slightly below the $6 mark, the dramatic surge intensified concerns among Michigan consumers over the possible return of runaway inflation, particularly if fuel and transportation costs continue to rise and push up the prices of consumer goods across the economy.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel fuel powers trucks, trains, buses, boats and agricultural and military vehicles, in addition to backup generators used by hospitals and industrial facilities, making diesel prices critical to large sectors of the economy.AAA data showed that Michigan’s average diesel price jumped by roughly 90 cents in just one week, reaching a record $6.013 per gallon on May 4, compared to approximately $3.48 per gallon one year earlier.At the same time diesel prices crossed the $6 threshold, the average price for regular unleaded gasoline in Michigan climbed to $4.86 per gallon, marking an increase of about 85 cents in a single week.Michigan’s all-time gasoline price record, however, remains the $5.22 per gallon average recorded on June 11, 2022.Nationally, California posted the highest average price for regular gasoline last week at $6.01 per gallon.In addition to rising global oil prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said production disruptions at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana were among the primary reasons behind the sharp increase in prices earlier this month.Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said gasoline prices are unlikely to fall below $3 per gallon this year unless the U.S. economy experiences “a major economic shock such as a recession.”
April hiring beat expectations, but economists warn the labor market is ‘frozen’ | CNN - The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 115,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%, an indication of resilience at a time when war and high gas prices loom large. April’s employment gains mark an expected retreat from March, when a revised 185,000 jobs were created, boosted by factors such as the end of large labor strikes as well as favorable weather, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.However, the job growth seen last month was much stronger than the 65,000 that economists had estimated. No change in the unemployment rate was anticipated as factors such as aging demographics, an immigration slowdown and technology adoption have contributed to a slower-moving jobs market.White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett touted the better-than-expected jobs numbers in an interview Friday, saying April’s job market gains represent “absolutely blockbuster numbers,” in an interview with Fox News. However, he acknowledged steep headwinds for the economy as the war with Iran trudges on, with gas prices still hovering nationally at $4.55 a gallon Friday.However, economists cautioned that the solid-looking topline employment numbers mask underlying weakness in the labor market. “Half of the job gains came from retail and transportation and warehousing; those are sectors that do not consistently add jobs,” “We’re still creating enough opportunities to keep people generally employed; that said, we still don’t see any momentum in the labor market.”The ongoing war in Iran and the ripple effects from sharply higher energy and gas prices also serves as causes of concern, he said. Healthcare and social assistance – an industry buoyed by an aging population – was once again a leading driver of job gains, adding an estimated 53,900 positions last month. Another 52,100 jobs came from the transportation and warehousing industry (+30,300 jobs) and retail (+21,800 jobs).Leisure and hospitality and other services – industries that could be the first to show the effects from a broader pullback in consumer spending – added 14,000 jobs and 10,000 jobs, respectively.The labor market remains in a “low-hire, low-fire” mode, but some industries have been shedding jobs more than others. Layoffs have picked up speed in the tech industry, with many job cuts being attributed to a greater shift toward investment in artificial intelligence technologies.In April, the tech-heavy information sector lost 13,000 jobs. Financial activities (down 11,000), government (down 8,000) and manufacturing (down 2,000), also posted losses.It’s the first month of back-to-back job gains in more than a year, as uncertainty and other factors have rattled the labor market. The monthly payroll numbers have been especially volatile through the first part of this year – in part due to weather, labor strikes and methodological changes.When smoothing out that volatility, monthly job gains are running at a three-month average of 48,000. Year-to-date, that pace is 76,000 jobs per month.While the war in the Middle East wasn’t expected to negatively affect April’s employment numbers, it still presents a risk: The health of the US labor market and the broader economy could be negatively affected if gas prices stay persistently high and cut into consumer spending, raise business costs, as well as trickle into higher prices for other goods and services.Leisure and hospitality and other services – industries that could be the first to show the effects from a broader pullback in consumer spending – added 14,000 jobs and 10,000 jobs, respectively.Hiring decisions take a few months to come to fruition, and the early economic data doesn’t yet show that Americans have made significant cutbacks. Consumers’ coffers have been buffered by larger tax refunds, wage gains (although slowing), and wealth boosts (particularly for upper-income consumers).That could change, especially if their earnings are eaten away by inflation.In April, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% to put the annual rate of pay gains at 3.6%, landing it above inflation – for now.The April Consumer Price Index, the most widely used inflation gauge, is expected to show that the annual rate of inflation accelerated to 3.9% from 3.3% in March, FactSet consensus estimates show.Inflation picking up speed could exacerbate longstanding affordability concerns that have heavily weighed on Americans, especially those with little to no wiggle room in their budgets.A separate report Friday showed that consumer sentiment sank to a fresh record low in April.“The headline numbers on the US economy and on the labor market look better than they obviously feel to the overwhelming majority of both consumers and workers,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said in an interview. “And there’s a reason for that when you look under the hood of the job numbers.”She added: “There’s a lack of churn in the labor market, a sort of suspended animation that is not healthy.”The jobs report – literally a tale of two surveys: one of businesses and the other of households – told two different stories for April.“We’re starting to see this divergence again between the household survey and the establishment survey, and you can reconcile those two by accounting for people who may have multiple jobs or they’re on multiple payrolls, but we are still seeing that divergence,” LinkedIn’s Kantenga said. “The household survey is much weaker.”The two surveys could become more aligned after the annual benchmark revisions occur, he said, noting the expectation is that the payroll numbers will be revised lower.The establishment-derived payroll numbers showed that the US economy has added 304,000 jobs so far this year (pre-pandemic, that January to April tally averaged 504,000 jobs). And monthly job gains, at a year-to-date pace of 78,000, are running above the historically weak sub-10,000-per-month rate seen last year.The household survey, however, shows the effects of a constrained labor supply (shifts in retirements and immigration) as well as a labor market with few opportunities for job seekers.“Since the beginning of the year, employment has actually fallen when you call up people and ask them if they have a job,” KPMG’s Swonk said. “Participation has also fallen and job leavers have fallen. All of that is a sign of underlying anxiety in the labor market.”The labor force participation rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, inching down to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment to population ratio, a measure of labor market engagement that includes those who are unemployed and not actively seeking jobs, fell to 59.1% which, excluding the pandemic, is the lowest rate since 2014.The U-6 unemployment rate (an alternative measure of labor underutilization) rose to 8.2%, the highest in five months and two percentage points above where it was in 2019, Swonk said, noting that more workers are having to accept part-time jobs because full-time work isn’t available.“Those who have a job are frozen in place, and those who want a job are frozen out of the labor market,” she said.
United declares emergency following attempted cockpit breach and highway collision -United Airlines is reeling after a chaotic weekend at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) involving two high-stakes emergencies in less than 24 hours. The airline is currently assisting federal investigators after a flight deck security breach was followed by a wide-body jet colliding with highway infrastructure during its final landing approach. At approximately 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 3, United Flight 169 arrived from Venice, Italy, when it struck a light pole while passing over the southbound lanes of the New Jersey Turnpike. The impact sent debris onto the highway, damaging a tractor-trailer and causing minor injuries to the driver. While the aircraft — carrying 221 passengers and 10 crew members — landed safely, the flight crew has been removed from service as part of a "rigorous flight safety investigation". The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) confirmed it is investigating the incident and will release a report within 30 days. The highway collision followed a terrifying security incident on Saturday, May 2. Pilots on United Flight 1837 were forced to declare an emergency after a 48-year-old male passenger allegedly attacked a flight attendant and attempted to gain access to the flight deck. Air traffic control audio captured the pilot’s urgent request for law enforcement assistance, noting that the individual "tried to pop our door open" and "tried to gain access to the flight deck". Upon landing, Port Authority Police detained the suspect without incident and transported him to a local hospital for a psychiatric evaluation.
81 percent of young Americans say economic conditions are bad or terrible: Survey - A recent survey by Generation Lab found that more than 8 in 10 young adults rate economic conditions in the U.S. as either bad or terrible. The survey, conducted April 26-29, found that 55 percent of 546 respondents ages 18-24 said they view the economy as bad, while 29 percent said it was terrible. As for those in the 25-29 age range, 52 percent of 266 such respondents said the economy was bad. About 3 in 10 respondents said it was terrible, for a combined percentage of 81 percent that view the economy negatively.A mere 2 percent in the 18-24 age range and 1 percent in the 25-29 age range said they view the economy as excellent. Just 14 percent and 19 percent, respectively, said the economy was good. In March, inflation increased by nine-tenths of a percentage point from February to 3.3 percent. The cost of gasoline was up by 18.9 percent after declining year-over-year in the prior three months. Stateside gas prices have spiked since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started, as the Iranian military imposed restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That move roiled the energy sector, with domestic gas prices surpassing $4.45 on Monday, according to AAA.On Sunday, President Trump said the U.S. military will help ships pass through the waterway. The start of that endeavor Monday prompted retaliation from the Iranian military.As for whom Americans ages 18-29 blame for the state of the economy, Trump and “corporate greed/large companies” were the most common answers. More than 4 in 10 of respondents in the 18-24 age range blamed the president, while one-third faulted corporate greed and large companies. Just 2 percent blamed former President Biden, while 9 percent blamed congressional Republicans, 2 percent blamed congressional Democrats and 1 percent blamed the Federal Reserve.As for ages 25-29, one-third faulted Trump and one-third faulted “corporate greed/large companies.” Biden and congressional Republicans garnered 8 percent of the blame each, while 3 percent pointed to congressional Democrats and 2 percent pointed to the central bank.
College students are noticing their AI‑smoothed writing sounds strong—and not like them - Generative AI has become a part of everyday student life in Canada. While institutions focus on misconduct and detection, a deeper shift is happening, one that concerns identity.A recent KPMG Canada report finds that 73% of students use generative AI for schoolwork, and nearly half say it is their "first instinct." Also significant is the finding that many students also report feeling uneasy, worried that their use may be seen as cheating.The study is based on a survey of 684 university, college, vocational, and high school students within a larger sample of 3,804 Canadians (aged 18+), on how people are adopting generative AI.In my doctoral research on STEM education in Ontario colleges, I'm exploring how AI is transforming not only how students write but also how they perceive voice, legitimacy, and what it means to be themselves.Academic policies can define what constitutes cheating, but they do not address a more subtle concern: if AI helped write my assignment, will I still be seen as capable, and will my work represent me? Writing is more than a technical skill. It is one of the primary ways students structure and elaborate ideas, demonstrate competence, and position themselves as emerging professionals.This is particularly significant in STEM, where programs are often closely linked to specific career paths. Students are expected to begin positioning themselves as future professionals through how they communicate and present knowledge.At the same time, STEM fields are often seen as primarily technical or data-driven, with writing treated as secondary. Yet research shows that communication is central to scientific practice, shaping how knowledge is constructed, interpreted, and shared.Even beyond this, when science students write assignments, they also undertake what social and cultural theorists describe as "identity work." Through writing, students build narratives that let them explore how they might belong in particular worlds or professional fields. In my research, I examine how STEM programs operate as cultural worlds with implicit rules about what counts as smart, credible, and legitimate participation.Students interpret rules and adjust how they portray themselves in their work. This identity work is shaped by prior experiences, confidence with disciplinary language, and alignment between personal interests and the STEM career paths they see as being available to them. AI is now part of that process.In my research, I have observed college STEM classes, taken field notes, and spoken with a cohort of students multiple times over a two-year period about their work.I often hear a version of the same concern: the AI-generated draft is technically strong, but "it does not sound like me." This concern reflects the insight that "voice" or "sound" in writing is a signal of legitimacy.In my collaborative work on cultivating student agency, I use the idea of "becoming alive within science education" to describe moments when students can bring more of themselves—their perspectives, ways of thinking, and experiences—into how they learn and express ideas.Yet institutions often favor more standardized forms of writing. AI can intensify this by making a fluent, generic style instantly available. For some students, this lowers barriers and supports access. For others, it feels like self-erasure.One student put it this way: "It's better writing, yeah, it sounds good and helps get a better grade. But it's kinda generic. Like anyone could've written it, not just me."This recurring pattern in the data points to a broader tension: phrasing, structure, and tone in writing carry traces of identity, traces AI can smooth or erase.
Review uncovers rising rate of fake references in published biomedical papers - A systematic review published yesterday in The Lancet reveals that of 97.1 million verified references in published biomedical papers, 4,046 were likely fake, with rates of fabrication rising 12-fold from 2023 through 2025—which commentators call a disturbing discovery that highlights the need to improve research integrity. Columbia University researchers used artificial intelligence (AI) to develop an automated reference verification system that scanned PubMed Central's Open Access subset from January 2023 to February 2026 to audit 2.5 million research papers and 126 million structured references. For each verified reference, the team retrieved the bibliographical record for the claimed identifier from PubMed and Crossref and compared it with the citing paper's claimed metadata, using text-similarity scoring.Flagged references underwent sequential filters to reduce false-positives results. After filtering, references were verified against PubMed, Crossref, OpenAlex, and Google Scholar. A reference not found in any database was characterized as fabricated, and one found but linked to an incorrect identifier was considered a reference error. The precision of the automated reference verification system was 91%. “Fabricated references (references whose claimed titles correspond to no existing publication) can arise from paper mill activity, intentional misconduct, or uncritical use of artificial intelligence (AI) writing tools,” the study authors wrote. “Large language models (LLMs) generate plausible sounding but fictitious references, a well documented failure mode; previous studies estimate that 30-69% of LLM-generated references in biomedical contexts are fabricated,” they added. Of 97.1 million verified references, 4,046 in 2,810 papers were fabricated. In 2023, about one in 2,828 papers contained at least one fictional reference, climbing to one in 458 in 2025 and one in 277 in the first seven weeks of this year. The fabrication rate rose over 12-fold, from four per 10,000 papers in 2023, to 51.3 per 10,000 at the end of 2025 and 56.9 per 10,000 in the early part of this year.
Survey: Facing headwinds, early-career physician-scientists mull other options, jobs abroad - After recent US policy shifts, a survey of 175 early-career physician-scientists suggests that they struggle with balancing clinical, research, and educational responsibilities; work-family balance; limited funding; and low compensation, with 58% considering leaving academic medicine in the next two years and 44% mulling a move abroad. The findings, which haven’t been peer-reviewed, were published this week on the preprint server medRxiv. Researchers from the Yale School of Medicine led the survey, which asked early-career physician-scientists about demographic factors, career-development support, distribution of clinical and research responsibilities, funding, and perceived career barriers. The survey was emailed to department chairs at 110 academic centers. Physician-scientists translate scientific discoveries into advances in patient care, the study authors noted. “However, the physician-scientist pipeline has long been laden with challenges, affecting the community at every training stage, particularly those in the early phases of training,” they wrote. “Consequently, this scientific workforce has markedly contracted, declining from approximately 4.5% of the medical community in the 1980s to about 1.5% over the last decade.” Among respondents, 45.3% were women, and the largest age-group was 35 to 44 years. Assistant professors made up the largest group (46.6%), followed by residents (14.3%) and fellows (12%). Medical domains spanned general medicine and related subspecialties (57.7%), neurology/psychiatry (10.3%), pathology (6.3%), and surgical subspecialties (4.6%). The greatest geographic representation was from the Northeast (35.7%), followed by the Southwest (22.8%), Midwest (17%), Southeast (14%), and Northwest (6.4%). About 74% of participants said they dedicated at least 50% of their time to research, and 4.3% reported full-time research. Among those with a research effort under 50%, 81.8% indicated that they wanted to dedicate more time to research. In total, 25.7% were pursuing mainly basic science, while 30.3% wanted to spend most of their time on translational research, and 25.1% named clinical research. Eighty-nine (50.8%) of the 175 respondents had received a career-development award, with only 28.9% citing limited institutional or departmental support. Among the 80 respondents with information on funding-submission attempts, 45% secured funding on their first try and 38.8% on their second, while the remaining participants reported at least three attempts. The greatest concern for the future that they cited was for research into health disparities (76%), followed by vaccines (70.3%), and diversity, equity, and inclusion (62.9%). The most commonly reported work difficulties were balancing clinical, research, and educational responsibilities (72.5%), balancing work and family responsibilities (48.0%), limited funding (48.0%), and low compensation (34.3%). A total of 16.5% said their outlook on academic medicine was very pessimistic, 35.3% were somewhat pessimistic, 22.9% were somewhat hopeful, and 5.3% were very hopeful. In total, 57.7% of respondents said they had thought about leaving academic medicine within the next two years, and 83.2% indicated an over 50% probability of doing so within five years. The most often-cited reasons for this were funding challenges (72%), low compensation (42.3%), feeling unhappy or stressed (40.6%), and burnout (37.7%). In addition, 43.9% of those surveyed said they had considered moving outside the United States for better academic working conditions, and 10.4% had already been contacted by institutions in other countries. Overall, the survey findings suggest that the physician-scientist workforce is at continued risk for contraction.
KFF poll shows 41% of US adults back MAHA agenda - Four in ten US adults polled in a new KFF survey said they support the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, but an even wider swath of the American public is concerned about the regulation of chemical additives in foods and the use of pesticides in agriculture. The poll showed MAHA fans were largely (two-thirds) Republicans who aligned themselves with President Donald Trump. However, 75% of those polled said there is not enough regulation of chemical additives in food and 64% there’s not enough regulation of pesticides used in agriculture, issues championed by those on both sides of the aisle. Healthcare costs are the most pressing health-related issue among those surveyed when looking forward to the 2026 midterm elections. Fifty-five percent of those polled said healthcare costs will have a “major impact” on their decision to vote. Only four in 10 say vaccine or food policy will affect voting decisions. Even among MAHA supporters, healthcare costs were more important than food policy or vaccine safety—issues on which the administration received low marks. “Voters overall give the Trump administration low approval ratings on two key health areas elevated by the MAHA movement; about four in ten approve of the administration’s handling of vaccine policy (38%), and fewer than half approve of the administration’s handling of food policy (46%),” KFF said. Voters were also evenly divided on trusting Democrats (31%) or Republicans (27%) to handle the safety of food additives and pesticides, or neither party (31%). Overall, those surveyed said they trust the Democratic party over Republicans to handle vaccine policy (41% vs. 25%).
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announces initiative to boost psychiatric 'deprescribing' - Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday announced his new initiative boost “deprescribing” psychiatric medications, during a Make America Healthy Again Institute summit on mental health and overmedicalization. “Today, we take clear and decisive action to confront our nation’s mental health crisis by addressing the overuse of psychiatric medications —especially among children,” Kennedy said. “We will support patient autonomy, require informed consent and shared decision-making, and shift the standard of care toward prevention, transparency and a more holistic approach to mental health,” he added. As part of the initiative, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration will issue a report on prescribing trends. In a “Dear Colleague” letter on Monday, top officials within the HHS wrote that psychiatric medications “should not be understood as the only treatment option.” Kennedy has previously criticized psychiatric medications, suggesting in the past that Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors could be linked to school shootings. The HHS secretary also claimed these medications are more addictive than heroin, despite evidence to the contrary. Kennedy himself is a recovering heroin addict. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 16.5 percent of adults in 2020 were taking psychiatric medications for their mental health. The American Psychiatric Association (APA), which represents more than 40,000 members involved in psychiatric care and research, signaled on Monday it was receptive to the spirit of Kennedy’s initiative but pushed back on how it characterized mental healthcare. “We are supportive of the Administration’s plans for further investment in research and clinician training on the issues of prescribing and deprescribing,” the organization said in a statement. “That being said, while APA supports efforts to improve the quality, safety, and evidence base of mental health treatment, we strongly object to framing the nation’s mental health crisis as primarily a problem of ‘overmedicalization’ or ‘overprescribing,'” the APA added. “Deprescribing alone is not a sufficient response to this crisis.”
Aluminum in vaccines not linked to autism, other health problems, study finds -- Aluminum additives used in vaccines are not linked to serious medical problems or long-term conditions in children, according to a report published today in The BMJ. In particular, researchers found no increased risk of asthma, autism, or autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes.The analysis, which included 59 studies conducted over many years, adds to a large body of research finding no ties between aluminum in childhood vaccines and serious health problems, including a 24-year study of more than 1.2 million Danish children published last year in the Annals of Internal Medicine.“The evidence shows that vaccines containing aluminum are safe,” said Joseline Zafack, MD, PhD, MPH, senior author of the study and an epidemiologist at the Centre for Immunization Surveillance and Programs at the Public Health Agency of Canada.The researchers found only one, benign medical condition potentially related to certain aluminum-containing vaccines: small skin nodules that go away on their own. Fewer than 1% of people given vaccines that prevent diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTaP) develop these nodules. Vaccine makers have safely used tiny amounts of aluminum in vaccines for 100 years as a way to generate a better immune response. By boosting the immune system’s response, aluminum allows people to get strong protection from disease with a smaller quantity of vaccine and fewer doses. Aluminum is used in routinely recommended childhood vaccines such as those that prevent hepatitis A, hepatitis B, diphteria-tetanus-pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type b, human papillomavirus (HPV), meningococcus B and ABCWY, and pneumococcus.
Lawmakers ask Kennedy about blocked COVID vaccine study -- Democratic lawmakers are demanding answers about the suppression of a study on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acting director Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD. In a letter sent yesterday to Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, ranking members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce said Bhattacharya’s decision to prevent the study from being published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the CDC’s flagship publication, “appears to be a deliberate effort to suppress evidence of vaccine effectiveness by your hand-selected ideological ally.”The study, originally scheduled to be published in MMWR on March 19 after scientific review by CDC experts, found that COVID-19 vaccines cut emergency department visits and hospitalizations in healthy adults by roughly half this past winter. Bhattacharya has argued that he blocked the study because of concerns about the methodology, known as test-negative design—a methodology that has limitations but has long been used in vaccine effectiveness research.“Dr. Bhattacharya’s latest actions reinforce a disturbing year-long pattern of the Trump Administration’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) obstructing the flow of scientific information that helps to keep Americans healthy,” Frank Pallone Jr. (D-NJ), Diane DeGette (D-CO), and Yvette Clark (D-NY) wrote, adding that Bhattacharya’s defense of the decision “failed to address why those concerns warranted withholding information from the public that could keep Americans out of the hospital.”Citing other efforts by Kennedy and HHS to suppress beneficial information about vaccines, the lawmakers asked Kennedy whether he’s had any conversations with Bhattacharya about the study, whether Bhattacharya acted alone, and if any other HHS political appointees have directed the delay or suppression of any study scheduled for publication in MMWR. They also asked if the CDC ever intends to publish the study and what safeguards will be in place to ensure the journal’s scientific independence.“Because of the ways your actions deliberately misrepresent the risk of vaccinations, many Americans may needlessly forgo immunization, and as a result get sick, hospitalized, or die,” they wrote.
New research chips away at COVID-19 blood clot mystery - Doctors and scientists are still working to understand why COVID-19 can cause fatal damage to so many different organs. A potentially major piece of that puzzle was revealed today in research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association. During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitalized patients who weren't sick enough to be in the intensive care unit would suffer heart attacks and strokes, said William T. Bain, MD, a critical care pulmonologist at the University of Pittsburgh and the study's senior author. The deaths distressed and confounded clinicians, explained Bain. These patients didn't seem to be in immediate danger. Occasionally, a heart attack or stroke happened in someone who appeared to be getting better, including those who seemed well enough to be sent home. "This often affects younger populations, sort of in patients in their 40s and 50s," he said. In search of a biological explanation, Bain and his team examined blood samples from 93 patients who were enrolled in a National Institutes of Health–backed randomized trial launched during the pandemic. They found a striking association. People were more likely to develop clots and die if the SARS-CoV-2 virus had spread to their bloodstream. Specifically, the researchers linked clotting and viremia, or the presence of virus in the bloodstream, to soluble thrombomodulin. Thrombomodulin is a protein on the surface of the cells that line the inside of blood vessels. The protein becomes soluble when viremia causes the proteins of the cellular lining to break off. This may happen even as the COVID infection in the lungs improves. Bain and his colleagues theorize that viral damage to cleaved thrombomodulin creates clots, which then travel throughout the body and fatally disrupt blood flow. "So that could be stroke, it could be heart attack, it could be what's called a venous thromboembolism, which can go to the lungs and cause a pulmonary embolism," said Bain. An embolism is a life-threatening blockage in a lung artery, usually a clot. To be clear, Bain doesn't claim this link is the only reason clotting occurs in COVID patients. But he said it helps build a more detailed understanding of why so many people died.
Look to the sewers: Wastewater monitoring forewarns of measles -Wastewater surveillance in New Mexico last year detected the measles virus at the county level at least five days before any clinically confirmed cases. As researchers detailed in a study published on Wednesday in JAMA Network Open, this monitoring can provide public health agencies with early warning of measles that is independent of people seeking medical care. These findings come as measles, a potentially deadly and extremely contagious airborne virus, continues to spread throughout the United States and globally. The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH) collected a weekly 125-milliliter sample of untreated wastewater from nine treatment plants across six counties: Luna, Chaves, Santa Fe, Sandoval, Bernalillo, and Dona Ana. The Stadler Laboratory at Rice University tested the samples and returned the results to NMDOH within 10 days. The study got its first hit on May 7, 2025, when a wastewater sample collected in Sandoval County on April 30 tested positive for measles. At that time, none of the 67 reported cases in New Mexico were from Sandoval County or its neighboring counties. But the sampling proved predictive: Within a week, two Sandoval County residents tested positive for measles. Then, in June, wastewater from Luna County tested positive for measles. Cases among county residents started to emerge 12 days later. In total, 14 individuals were infected with the virus, five of whom were detained at the Luna County Detention Center. Carceral settings are high-risk environments for infectious disease outbreaks. Wastewater was also found positive in Chaves County during the study, though no cases followed. Researchers note that wastewater monitoring has limitations. The surveillance does not cover septic tanks, which are privately owned and not part of public sewer systems. Also, the presence of measles in wastewater might be due to an infectious person passing through the county.Elsewhere in the southwest, three more Maricopa County residents have the measles, bringing Arizona's 2026 case count to 96. Mesa County, the fourth-most populous county in the United States, now has 13 confirmed cases this year. According to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, the infected individuals visited at least 10 locations around the city of Mesa, including a church, a barbershop and a half-dozen restaurants. When an infected person coughs or sneezes, the virus can linger in the air and on surfaces for up to two hours. In Austin, Texas, people may have been exposed to measles when an infected person visited St. David's Emergency Center on Monday, May 4, from 11 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. The city's health department says that this is the first reported case for Travis County in 2026. An entire audience at the Metropolitan Opera House in New York City was put at risk for measles during an April 25 matinee of La Bohème, according to several news outlets. The infected person was unvaccinated. The nationwide measles total for the year now stands at 1,842 cases, up from 1,814 the previous week, according to an update today from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There have been 25 outbreaks reported in 2026, and 93% of confirmed cases are outbreak-associated. An outbreak is defined as three or more cases.
US ‘highly likely’ to lose measles elimination status this fall, analysis warns The United States is at high risk of losing its measles elimination status in November as rising case counts and sustained transmission undermine one of the country’s major public health achievements, according to a letter published late last week in The Lancet. Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, meaning there was no continuous transmission for at least 12 months. The milestone was achieved following years of nationwide vaccination efforts, including the adoption of a two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) immunization schedule.The current resurgence threatens that status. With 2,288 confirmed cases in 2025 and 1,814 confirmed cases as of last week, the country is experiencing its largest measles outbreak in decades. The decision will be made by the Pan American Health Organization Measles and Rubella Elimination Regional Monitoring and Re-Verification Commission in November. The epidemic, which began in Texas in early 2025 with two imported cases, has since spread to 45 states. To date, there have been 24 new outbreaks in 2026, and 93% of cases have been outbreak-associated. This week, Utah reported 13 new measles cases, for a total of 441 cases in the state in 2026, and Colorado has confirmed 20 measles cases this year, three of them new. Most of the Colorado cases have occurred in children aged 5 to 17 years, and 19 of the 20 cases involved people who were not vaccinated. One confirmed case was reported yesterday in Manhattan. The New York City Health Department is working to identify and notify people who may have been exposed at a restaurant.To assess current measles transmission status in the United States, the authors of the letter used elimination indicators established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2000, including incidence rate, transmission levels, and population immunity. Then they used case counts reported by state health departments from January 2025 to February 2026 to calculate the effective reproduction number, which estimates the average number of infections caused by each case. Their findings suggest that the country has already failed to meet four of seven key indicators and is unlikely to meet the remaining three. For example, current case rates far exceed elimination thresholds. Instead of fewer than one case per 10 million people annually, which is the elimination indicator for incidence rate, the United States reported more than 90 cases per 10 million in early 2026. Another elimination indicator is a high proportion of imported cases, but most current infections are linked to local transmission rather than importation. Current outbreaks are also larger and more frequent than would be expected under elimination conditions.
Santa Clara, California, hospital investigates 18 Legionella infections -- Early this week, Kaiser Permanente Santa Clara in California confirmed at least 18 cases of infections with Legionella bacteria, all associated with the Santa Clara Medical Center, a San Francisco Bay–Area hospital. Kaiser said the infections were found during routine enhanced surveillance, but no exposure site has yet been identified. Infection with Legionella bacteria can lead to Legionnaires’ disease, a severe type of pneumonia. The bacteria is not transmitted person to person. Instead, infections are acquired when people breathe in spores from contaminated water.Common sites of transmission include warm water from cooling towers, faucets, hot tubs, and fountains. Elderly people and those with compromised lung function are most at risk for severe infections.Kaiser has not told the media if the cases are occurring in patients, hospital staff, or visitors, nor has it disclosed if any of the case-patients are currently hospitalized.
TB costs in poor countries exceed those of HIV, estimates suggest | Active cases of tuberculosis (TB) cost low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with heavy TB burdens $3.5 billion more in current annual and future lost earnings and medical expenses than HIV, yet receives substantially less funding, researchers in Peru and the United States write in a new study published in BMJ Global Health. The researchers used a model to estimate the economic costs of TB and HIV to households and the economy, including factors such as the effects of parental disability or death on children’s future earnings, in 25 LMICs. The analysis was based on data from sources such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Tuberculosis Report, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease dataset, and Demographic Household Surveys. TB incidence per 100,000 people ranges from 58 in China to 615 in South Africa, while HIV rates per 1,000 people range from 0.01 in Bangladesh to 4.70 in Mozambique, the authors noted. “Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant disease burden in 25 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), comparable to that of HIV in these countries,” they wrote. “Despite TB prevention and treatment being more cost-effective (in terms of cost per health outcome), its funding is merely a fraction of HIV’s, fluctuating between 10–20% since 2000.” TB led to a total estimated loss of $36.6 billion per year in study countries. Active cases led to $3.7 billion in losses from reduced consumption and $11.6 billion from lost education. Fatal TB cases added losses of $10 billion in reduced consumption and $5.6 billion from lost education, with medical expenses adding another $5.7 billion each year. India had the greatest estimated loss, at $9.8 billion, which accounted for 27% of total costs, followed by China, at $5.1 billion. HIV illness led to $2 billion in losses from reduced consumption and $17.7 billion from lost education. Deaths from HIV accounted for another $3.5 billion in reduced consumption and $3.2 billion from lost schooling, with estimated yearly losses of $5.4 billion currently and $20.9 billion in the future. Medical HIV expenses totaled $6.1 billion per year. South Africa bore the largest burden of these costs, with losses of $16.3 billion, representing half of all HIV-associated costs in the countries studied. Household-level losses, including medical costs, varied widely by country, reflecting differences in education level, financial returns on education, fertility rates, average income, and disease age distribution. For example, TB current costs ranged from 24% in Zimbabwe to 88% in Afghanistan. When total medical expenses were taken into account, the variability in the percentage of total TB costs is even higher, ranging from 3% in Indonesia to over 80% in Ukraine and the Kyrgyz Republic. The cost of preventing and treating TB is much lower than that for HIV, mainly because TB treatment is time-limited and that for HIV is lifelong, the researchers said. As a result, the economic return on investments in TB prevention and treatment is substantially higher than that of HIV.
WHO warns of hantavirus on cruise ship, with 3 dead, 3 others sickened | CIDRAP -Three people are dead and three others are sickened in a suspected hantavirus outbreak on a Dutch cruise ship that was sailing in the Atlantic ocean, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday. “To date, one case of hantavirus infection has been laboratory confirmed, and there are five additional suspected cases. Of the six affected individuals, three have died and one is currently in intensive care in South Africa,” WHO posted on X. “While rare, hantavirus may spread between people, and can lead to severe respiratory illness and requires careful patient monitoring, support and response.”The illnesses occurred on the polar cruise ship MV Hondius, which was traveling between Argentina and the Canary Island and departed Ushuaia, Argentina, three weeks ago. Among the three fatalities are an elderly couple from the Netherlands.Two sick patients remain on board the ship, and are awaiting medical evacuation to the Netherlands, the WHO said. The WHO estimates 150 people, including passengers and crew, remain on the ship, which is anchored near Cape Verde. Passengers are being told to stay in their cabins while the ship is cleaned and sanitized.This is the first known outbreak of hantavirus associated with cruise ships. The virus is carried by rodents; humans contract the virus via inhalation of animal droppings and urine. Rarely, person-to-person transmission has been reported.“Outbreaks of hantavirus have not previously been reported in association with cruise ships,” Nicole M. Iovine, MD, PhD, of the University of Florida, told CIDRAP News. “It is possible, though, that isolated illnesses have occurred in the past and not recognized to be caused by hantavirus.”The strain of hantavirus involved in this outbreak is unknown, but Daniel Lucey, MD, MPH, of Dartmouth University, said there are important clues. First, patients reported respiratory symptoms, which suggests a strain that infects the lungs. The Andes strain is found mostly in South America, while the Sin Nombre strain was first discovered in the southwest United States in 1993. Both of these strains from the Americas can cause severe respiratory illness and are fatal in about 38% of cases.The cruise ship is Dutch, but the three main European strains of the hantavirus do not cause lung disease, Lucey explained. Instead, those strains attack the kidneys, and no person-to-person transmission has been documented with European strains. “Only Andes is sometimes contagious person-to-person, through close contacts, as best established when the virus is transmitted from a patient to a health care provider,” Lucey said. “In other settings, two or more infected people might have been exposed to aerosolized virus found in rodent urine, droppings or saliva, especially given that the virus can persist for days in the environment.”
More details emerge on hantavirus patients on cruise ship - The World Health Organization (WHO) has published a disease outbreak news report with more details on the hantavirus cases detected over the weekend on a Dutch cruise ship currently anchored off the coast of Cabo Verde. There are now seven (two confirmed and five suspected) cases, with three deaths. While one patient is in an intensive care unit at a South African hospital and three passengers are dead, the other suspected case-patients are reported to have mild illness. All illnesses occurred from April 6 to April 28, and the four patients with severe illness reported fever, gastrointestinal symptoms, rapid progression to pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and shock. The ship left Argentina on April 1 and made multiple stops, including mainland Antarctica, South Georgia, Nightingale Island, Tristan da Cunha, Saint Helena, and Ascension Island. The first fatality occurred on April 11, in an adult male who developed symptoms on April 6. The body of that passenger was removed from the vessel to Saint Helena on April 24. The second fatality occurred in a female adult, the wife of the first patient. She died in a South African hospital on April 26, after going ashore at Saint Helena on April 24. The man and woman traveled in South America, including Argentina, before boarding the ship. The next case-patient is an adult male currently hospitalized in South Africa. He presented to the ship’s doctor with signs of pneumonia on April 24, and was evacuated from Ascension to South Africa on April 27, where he remains. The fourth case-patient is an adult female with presentation of pneumonia who died on board on May 2. “Three suspected cases have reported high fever and/or gastrointestinal symptoms and remain on board,” the WHO said. “Medical teams in Cabo Verde are evaluating the patients and collecting additional specimens for testing.” The WHO said the general risk to the public is low, as hantavirus infections are rare. Humans typically develop infections after inhaling rodent droppings, including urine. It's not known what strain of hantavirus is infecting the passengers, with the most worrisome being the Andes strain, which is native to South America. That’s the only strain of virus with documented human-to-human transmission. The Argentina Ministry of Health released a statement yesterday. So far this year Argentina has reported 42 hantavirus cases, but none in the province from where the boat departed. Most are from Buenos Aires. Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, told the media today that the WHO believes “there may be some human-to-human transmission that is happening among the really close contacts.”She also said the WHO suspects the first case was infected before boarding the ship.
At least 8 sickened in suspected hantavirus outbreak; Andes strain confirmed -- At least eight passengers have been sickened, including three who died, in a hantavirus outbreak aboard a Dutch cruise ship. Today, the World Health Organization (WHO) said three ill passengers had been airlifted to the Netherlands to get medical care early this morning.The ship, the MV Hondius, is also on the move, leaving Cabo Verde, where it was moored, for the Canary Islands, where the government of Spain said people will be able to deboard and travel home if they are healthy.Also today, a patient who had been on the ship and subsequently became ill in Switzerland is now hospitalized with confirmed hantavirus. That patient was sickened with the Andes strain, which is found in South America. The Andes strain is also the only hantavirus strain to have documented person-to-person transmission, but it is considered rare and usually linked to close contact.Among the eight suspected cases, only three have been confirmed by laboratory testing to be hantavirus.Officials today from WHO said the risk to the general population is still very low at this time. “This is not the next COVID, but it is a serious infectious disease,” Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, told the Associated Press. “Most people will never be exposed to this.”The case-patient in Switzerland was traveling with his wife on the ship but left the boat in late April, returning home to Switzerland. According to the Swiss ministry of health, he consulted his family doctor by phone after experiencing symptoms in recent days and went to University Hospital Zurich. The patient’s wife currently has no symptoms and is in self-isolation.
WHO officials on hantavirus cases: ‘This is an outbreak on a ship, not another COVID-19’- Today during a press conference on the hantavirus outbreak linked to travelers on a Dutch cruise ship, World Health Organization (WHO) officials repeatedly assured reporters that, though serious, the current situation is not “another SARS-CoV-2.” “This is not COVID. This is not influenza,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention. “This is an outbreak on a ship and we do not anticipate a large epidemic.” Van Kerkhove and WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said that hantavirus causes serious illness and has a significant case-fatality rate, but extreme close contact is needed in the rare cases where person-to-person transmission has been recorded. So far five of the eight suspected cases have been laboratory-confirmed with hantavirus. Sequencing on patient samples has confirmed it’s the Andes strain of the virus, which is found in South America. Tedros said WHO was working with Argentinian officials to investigate whether a bird watching trip taken by the first case-patients before boarding the ship may have been where the exposure occurred. He also said currently onboard the MV Hondius are an expert from the WHO, an official from the European Centre for Disease Control, and two Dutch public health experts. Tedros said the United States and Argentina, two countries that left the WHO this year, are working closely with the organization to track this outbreak. Thirty passengers from 12 countries disembarked from the ship after the first fatality on April 24, Tedros said, and all countries have been responsive to contact tracing and reaching those passengers. Passengers should monitor themselves for 6 weeks Tedros said people who were aboard the ship should monitor themselves for symptoms for six weeks, the outer limit of the hantavirus incubation period. They do not have to self-isolate unless they are symptomatic.
Cruise ship at center of hantavirus outbreak to dock in Spain Sunday - Spain is preparing to receive more than 140 passengers and crew members from a cruise ship on which at least eight people became ill and three died due to hantavirus.The Dutch-flagged vessel, the MV Hondius, was sailing from Argentina to Cape Verde when the outbreak was discovered. The ship is now heading for Tenerife, the largest of Spain’s Canary Islands, off the coast of West Africa, according to media reports.Passengers will be taken to a “completely isolated, cordoned-off area,” the head of Spain’s emergency services, Virginia Barcones, told the Associated Press. Public health staff from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will meet the cruise ship in Tenerife and escort American passengers back to the United States aboard a charter flight, CNN reports.Additional CDC staff will meet cruise ship passengers in Nebraska, where passengers will be quarantined in an effort to control the virus, according to CNN. Nebraska is home to the National Quarantine Unit, a federally funded quarantine facility, as well as the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit.Hantavirus infections, which can cause respiratory symptoms, are rare and usually spread through contact with the urine, feces, or saliva of infected rodents, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak is caused by the Andes virus, the only known hantavirus strain to spread from person to person, primarily through prolonged, close contact. British health officials announced today that two British nationals who were on the ship have confirmed hantavirus. An additional British national on Tristan da Cunha, a remote group of British islands in the South Atlantic Ocean, has a suspected case.Although the United States and Argentina left the WHO earlier this year, both countries are cooperating with international efforts to contain the outbreak, according to STAT.The CDC has fewer staff to respond to the outbreak due to massive staffing cuts over the past year. The top US official responsible for public health on cruise ships has recently retired, according to an internal memo obtained by STAT.
Experts question CDC's response to cruise ship hantavirus outbreak (AP) — No quick dispatching of disease investigators. No televised news conference to inform the public. No timely health alerts to doctors. In the midst of a hantavirus outbreak that involves Americans and is making headlines around the world, the U.S. government’s top public health agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has been uncharacteristically missing in action, according to a number of experts. To President Donald Trump, “We seem to have things under very good control,” as he told reporters Friday evening. To experts, the situation aboard a cruise ship has not spiraled because, unlike COVID-19 or measles or the flu, hantavirus does not spread easily. It has been health experts in other countries, not the United States, who have been dealing primarily with the outbreak in the past week. “The CDC is not even a player,” said Lawrence Gostin, an international public health expert at Georgetown University. “I’ve never seen that before.” Not until late Friday did CDC actions accelerate. Health officials confirmed the deployment of a team to Spain’s Canary Islands, where the ship was expected to arrive early Sunday local time, to meet the Americans onboard. They said a second team will go to Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska as part of a plan to evacuate American passengers from the ship to a University of Nebraska quarantine center for evaluation and monitoring. Also, the CDC issued its first health alert to U.S. doctors, advising them of the possibility of imported cases. At their first briefing, held Saturday by telephone only for invited reporters, officials pledged to be transparent in updating the public but said the media could not cite the speakers by name under rules set by aides to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. They did not directly answer a question about whether the American passengers could leave the university medical facility when they wanted. The CDC’s diminished role in this outbreak is an indicator the agency is no longer the force in international health or the protector of domestic health that it once was, some experts said. The hantavirus outbreak is “a sentinel event” that speaks to “how well the country is prepared for a disease threat. And right now, I’m very sorry to say that we are not prepared,” said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, chief executive officer of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. For decades, the CDC partnered with the WHO in such situations. The CDC acted as a mainstay of any international investigation, providing staff and expertise to help unravel any outbreak mystery, develop ways to control it and communicate to the public what they should know and how they should worry. Such actions were a large reason why the CDC developed a reputation as the world’s premier public health agency. But this time, the WHO has been center stage. It made the risk assessment that has told people the outbreak is not a pandemic threat. “I don’t think this is a giant threat to the United States,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center. But how this situation has played out “just shows how empty and vapid the CDC is right now,” she said.
Antibiotic resistance is rising in invasive E coli found in US newborns, study finds - An analysis of invasive Escherichia coli samples from newborns at a US pediatric hospital found rising rates of resistance to recommended antibiotics, researchers reported today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. For the study, researchers from the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine and Children’s Mercy Hospital Kansas City identified and analyzed E coli isolated from blood cultures of newborns at the hospital from 2006 to 2021. E coli is a major neonatal pathogen in the United States, and leading cause of sepsis in newborns. The researchers wanted to investigate the clinical characteristics of newborns with E coli bacteremia (bacteria in the blood), and the pattern of antibiotic resistance in E coli isolates over time. “This knowledge is crucial to develop effective preventative and treatment strategies for this devastating disease,” the researchers wrote. Of the 54 newborns identified with E coli bacteremia, seven developed early-onset sepsis (within 72 hours of birth or less), 12 were treated for E coli meningitis, and two had necrotizing enterocolitis. Five of the newborns died, including three who were born preterm. The mortality rate was 19% in preterm newborns versus 5% for term newborns. Antibiotic susceptibility analysis found 54% of E coli isolates overall were nonsusceptible to ampicillin and 11% were nonsusceptible to gentamicin—the two antibiotics recommended for first-line treatment in newborns with sepsis—with ampicillin nonsusceptibility rising from 46% to 61% between 2006-2013 and 2014-2021. The percentage of isolates that were nonsusceptible to cefazolin, an alternative therapy, rose from 8% to 36%. Whole genome sequencing revealed the most prominent E coli sequence types (STs) were ST95 (17%), ST69 (11%), and ST131 (7%), and 43% of isolates contained the K1 capsule, which plays a crucial role in disease progression.
Infant formula voluntarily recalled after testing positive for heat-stable toxin - Infant formula sold on Amazon and at Meijer stores has been voluntarily recalled by the New Zealand-based a2 Milk Company. Though the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reports "no confirmed incidents of illness or harm have been reported," the agency wants people to dispose of imported a2 Platinum Premium USA label infant formula 0-12 months with the following batch numbers: 2210269454, 2210324609, 2210321712.The recall was reportedly initiated after cereulide, a toxin, was detected through additional testing in accordance with guidance recently issued by New Zealand's food regulatory authority."The recall is isolated to the USA label Product, which has a different formulation and relevant ingredient to the English label a2 Platinum infant formula sold in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Vietnam and through cross border channels into China,” the company said in a press release.The a2 formula was imported during Operation Fly Formula, according to the company and FDA. The 2022 initiative used government planes and personnel to accelerate shipments of infant formula during a national shortage in the United States. The FDA reports that a total of 16,428 affected tins were sold and that the product was discontinued prior to the recall. Cereulide is produced by certain strains of the bacterium Bacillus cereus. The toxin is heat-stable so boiling water will not destroy it. The World Health Organization (WHO) says the symptoms of cereulide illness usually appear within 30 minutes to six hours after ingestion. It can include nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain with risk of dehydration and electrolyte imbalance, which can be particularly severe in infants. From December 2016 to February 2026, at least 99 countries and territories have received infant formula products that were subject to recalls because of cereulide contamination. The WHO said in a March 13 press release that at least 144 suspected and confirmed cases were reported across 10 countries. "The full root cause analysis and complete traceability of all affected batches remains under investigation," said the international health agency.
Almost all plant-based meat alternatives contain mycotoxins, new research finds - New research into plant-based food and drinks has found a prevalence of mycotoxins—naturally occurring poisonous compounds produced by fungi—in hundreds of vegetarian and vegan products. A total of 212 plant-based meat alternatives (PMBAs) and plant-based beverages (PBBs) from UK shelves were tested—and all of them contained at least one of 19 mycotoxins, with multiple products containing more than one.The study tested a broad spectrum of products readily available to UK consumers, such as burgers, vegetarian chicken pieces, vegan sausages, oat-, almond- and soy-based milks.The study, "Mycotoxin contamination in plant-based beverages and meat alternatives: A survey of the UK market," is published in Food Control. Mycotoxins are particularly prevalent in plant-based foods because the raw materials those foods are made from—such as grains, legumes and seeds—can be exposed to mold during cultivation and storage. The research team found that mycotoxin levels in the UK foods that they tested were lower than the recommended EU guideline levels, reflecting the high quality standards of the UK food industry.However, previous research studies have shown that even low levels, if consumed often, can build up exposure and lead to potential health concerns. So, while consuming these products in isolation is unlikely to pose issues, a diet solely based on plant-based foods could lead to a cumulative build-up of mycotoxins, potentially resulting in health problems if not managed properly.In very serious cases, mycotoxin exposure can cause health issues like liver and kidney damage, immune system suppression, and cancer.
Popular snack brand recalls these potato chips for salmonella risk - Utz has recalled certain Zapp's and Dirty brand potato chips due to potential salmonella contamination. Utz Quality Foods, LLC, a subsidiary of Utz Brands, issued a recall on May 4 for six types of Zapp's potato chips and three types of Dirty potato chips because they may contain salmonella.The recall was issued after Utz received information that the chips' seasoning, made with dry milk powder, may contain the presence of salmonella. The affected seasoning batches tested negative for salmonella, but out of caution, Utz is recalling limited varieties. As of May 4, Utz is not aware of any illnesses related to the recalled products.Several food products have been recalled or announced as part of a public health alert due to the dry milk powder contamination, including select Mama Cozzi's breakfast pizza, announced in late April. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service expects more products to be part of the alert, or even recalled, as investigations continue. Do not consume the recalled potato chips. For questions or refunds, contact Utz Customer Care at 1-877-423-0149 between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. ET Monday through Friday. Consuming food contaminated with salmonella can cause salmonellosis, one of the most common bacterial foodborne illnesses. The most common symptoms of salmonellosis include diarrhea, abdominal cramps and fever.
Frozen Pizzas Sold at Walmart, Aldi Have Been Recalled Over Salmonella Concerns. See the Full List - If you stocked up on frozen pizzas from Walmart or Aldi recently, you may want to check the labels before tossing one in the oven.Several food items, including meat-topped frozen pizzas sold at popular retailers nationwide, have been recalled over potential contamination with salmonella, a food-borne bacterium.Consumers are being warned not to eat any affected products, even if they're cooked thoroughly. On April 30, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Services issued an urgent public health alert for meat and poultry products containing a dairy ingredient that was previously recalled over salmonella concerns.The products, which contain a dry milk powder that may be contaminated with salmonella, were used to prepare several food items, including frozen pizzas and pork rinds. On May 1, the FSIS updated the alert to include additional frozen pizzas sold nationwide. The FSIS says it expects to identify even more downstream products that contain the recalled dairy ingredient as the recall progresses.The FSIS discovered the problem when it was notified that "multiple establishments received ingredients formulated with dry milk powder that had been recalled," the agency says.The pizzas were sold in the freezer aisle at retailers nationwide, including Walmart and Aldi. Products with the following lot numbers and/or use by dates are affected: (see list)
- Five children aged 2 years or younger in four US states (Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) have been sickened, and two hospitalized, in an outbreak of Salmonella Woodinville linked to pet veiled chameleons, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a news release yesterday. Illness onset dates were from February 12 to April 10, 2026. The children were from families who had bought veiled chameleons at different stores. The agency said it recommends against children younger than 5 having reptiles as pets because that age-group is especially likely to become seriously ill from pathogens reptiles can carry. “Veiled chameleons and other reptiles can carry Salmonella germs in their droppings even if they look healthy and clean,” the news release said. “These germs can easily spread to their bodies and anything in the area where they live and roam.”
- This week, after redefining the term “professional,” the Trump administration restricted loans for students planning careers as advanced-practice nurses, physician assistants, occupational therapists, physical therapists, speech-language therapists, social workers, counseling and mental health practitioners, social workers, health administrators, and public health or teaching posts. Instead, loans will be limited to those seeking terminal degrees in medicine, pharmacy, dentistry, veterinary medicine, chiropractic medicine, law, optometry, osteopathic medicine, podiatry, or theology. People pursuing these careers will be eligible for up to $50,000 in federal loans per year or $200,000 in total, while the others will be limited to $20,500 annually or $100,000 in total.
- Manitoba has declared a public health emergency over rising rates of HIV infection, with an incidence more than triple that of Canada’s nationwide rate, CBC reports. In 2024, the province reported 19.5 cases per 100,000 people, more than three-fold higher than the national rate of 5.5. Provincial health officials say the drivers of the surge may include intravenous drug use, homelessness, mental illness, an increase in other sexually transmitted and bloodborne infections, and barriers to care.
- The Global Polio Eradication Initiative this week reported 10 new polio cases in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Pakistan. Chad documented two circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases in the Logone Oriental region, with paralysis onsets of March 12, 2026. Last year, the country posted 31 cVDPV2 cases; so far this year, four cases have been reported. In the DRC, one cVDPV2 case was recorded in Maniema province, with an onset of paralysis of February 17, 2026. There were six cVDPV2 cases in 2025 and six so far in 2026. Nigeria posted three cVDPV2 cases in Zamfara and Bauchi states, with paralysis beginning in February and March 2026. Sixty-six cases were documented last year, and 17 have been noted this year. The country also reported two circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 3 (cVDPV3) cases this week in Yobe and Borno states, with paralysis starting on February 4, 2025, and March 29, 2026, respectively. The 2025 cVPDV3 tally was seven, with three so far this year.
Sampling reveals possible novel sources of H5N1 avian flu transmission on dairy farms Sampling on 14 California dairy farms positive for H5N1 avian influenza uncovers infectious virus in the air of milking parlors and wastewater, viral RNA in cows’ exhaled breath and milk, and antibodies in the milk of seemingly healthy cows, per a study published today in PLOS Biology. A team led by Emory University researchers performed air, wastewater, and milk sampling on H5N1-positive dairy farms in two regions of California in 2024 and 2025. The findings, they said, highlight potential alternative sources and viral transmission modes on farms, as well as the presence of viral strains in air and wastewater that may be able to infect people. “Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b B3.13 virus was first detected in dairy cattle in March of 2024 and has since spread to 16 states,” they wrote. “Transmission routes of highly pathogenic H5N1 between cows or to humans remain unclear due to limited data from affected dairy farms.” In the first phase of the study on five farms, H5N1 viral RNA was found in milk tanks on farms before cows showed signs of illness. Of 71 air samples analyzed for H5N1 viral RNA, four from the milking parlor and two from cows’ exhaled breath tested positive. Additional surveillance performed on nine farms showed H5N1 viral RNA in 21 of 35 air samples. Particle-size analysis showed the particles generated in milking-parlor air were both submicron and larger aerosols; four samples contained infectious virus. H5N1 viral RNA was detected throughout the wastewater stream, including in manure lagoons used by migratory birds and in fields with grazing cows. Two samples subjected to viral titration contained detectable infectious virus. “Together, these results highlight the extensive environmental contamination of H5N1 on affected dairy farms and identify additional sources of viral exposure for cows, peridomestic wildlife, and humans,” the authors wrote. “Dairy parlors, which are often enclosed spaces and where aerosolization of milk occurs, pose the greatest threat from inhalation of the virus to dairy farmworkers.”
Vermont documents rise in Eastern equine encephalitis cases in people, horses in 2023-24 - In 2023 and 2024, Vermont reported an increase in humans, horses, and mosquito pools that were positive for Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), a mosquito-borne disease with a 33% case-fatality rate, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Vermont health departments report. For the study, published last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC researchers reviewed an investigation conducted by the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) and the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food, and Markets (VAAFM). Each June through October, VAAFM traps, identifies, and pools mosquitoes from about 100 sites in the state. VDH and CDC labs conduct weekly testing of mosquito pools and investigate EEE virus (EEEV) detections and suspected human and animal infections. Most US EEE cases occur along the Atlantic Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes. “EEEV causes severe neuroinvasive disease in humans; although an EEE vaccine is available for horses, no human vaccine is currently licensed, and treatment is supportive,” the researchers wrote. “Approximately one third of human cases are fatal, and many survivors experience long-term neurologic sequelae.” From 2012 to 2015, EEEV was detected in 42 mosquito pools, but no virus was found in pools from 2016 to 2022. In 2023, EEEV was identified in 14 mosquito pools in three towns, and in 2024, in 86 pools in 16 towns in northern and western Vermont. In the 100 total mosquito pools, the most common mosquitoes to test positive for EEEV were Culiseta melanura (the primary enzootic vector), Coquillettidia perturbans (primary bridge vector that feeds on people, horses, and birds), and Culex pipiens-restuans (bridge vector). After the state reported the first two EEE infections in people in 2012, no cases were diagnosed again until 2024, when two men from the same northwestern county contracted neuroinvasive EEE. One man was identified before mosquito detections in July, and he survived, but the other patient died in early September. From 2012 to 2013, VDH investigated four EEE cases in horses, all but one dying of their infections. None had traveled or received EEE vaccination. No equine cases were reported from 2014 to 2022, but in 2023 and 2024, three fatal equine EEE cases were reported in northern Vermont, none of which had recently traveled or been vaccinated against EEE. In response to the increased EEEV activity, VDH and VAAFM continued surveillance, planned potential mosquito-control activities, and shared more EEE risk-and-prevention communications. This included readying permits, contracts, and outreach plans in case aerial mosquito spraying were needed; conducting a municipal health briefing; and publishing health advisories, press releases, social media posts, weekly town health-officer notifications, and multilingual flyers. The agencies recommended wearing protective clothing and Environmental Protection Agency–approved repellents and limiting outside time at dawn and dusk. Equine EEE vaccination was also recommended, but because horses don’t produce enough virus to transmit it back to mosquitoes, vaccination doesn’t disrupt the transmission cycle or reduce the risk to people, the authors said.
- BioNTech announced today it would close sites in Germany and Singapore, affecting up to 1,860 jobs, and buy back up to $1 billion of its shares, as the COVID‑19 vaccine maker is transitioning away from pandemic-era manufacturing and prepares for a leadership transition. BioNTech, along with Pfizer, developed the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty. The German company said it would pivot from COVID-19 vaccines and focus instead on oncology therapies.
- The first confirmed detection of New World screwworm in the Mexican state of Coahuila has prompted Texas officials to issue a warning about agricultural risks in that state. “This screwworm detection in Coahuila is a serious wake-up call. New World screwworm has now been found only 119 miles from the Texas border—at roughly the same latitude as Zapata, Texas, and north and west of the Rio Grande Valley,” said Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in a statement. The parasitic worm threatens cattle, horses, sheep, goats, wildlife, pets, and even humans. In the past year, Mexico has reported an increase in animal and human cases.
- The South Carolina Department of Public Health (DPH) has confirmed a second measles case in a Saluda County adult, which is related to the other case in the county reported April 17. These cases are not related to the Upstate outbreak that ended last month after 997 cases. “The first case was the result of international travel, and the second case was a known exposure of that case who had been in quarantine since April 17. No public exposures from this second case occurred. The individual’s vaccination history is unknown,” officials said. There are currently 39 people in quarantine through May 9. The second case-patient was diagnosed while in quarantine.
Climate change increases spillover risk of rodent-borne arenaviruses, study warns - limate change is likely to drive rodent-borne arenaviruses into parts of South America that have never faced these diseases, putting new communities of people at risk, finds a study from the University of California, Davis. For the study, published in the journal npj Viruses, scientists incorporated climate projections, shifting rodent populations, and the risks of human infection into a model to offer an early risk projection for arenaviruses and other diseases in the next 20 to 40 years."As climate change accelerates, our study shows how the outbreak risk of dangerous New World arenaviruses could ride on shifting rodent populations to reach millions more people across South America," Arenaviruses can cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with high hospitalization rates and fatality rates ranging from about 5% to 30%. South American New World arenaviruses include Guanarito virus in Venezuela and Colombia, Machupo virus in Bolivia and Paraguay, and Junin virus in Argentina. Despite having caused multiple outbreaks in humans, they are relatively understudied compared to Old World arenaviruses, such as Lassa fever in Africa."Our study connects the dots between changing climatic conditions and land use, shifting rodent populations and human infection risk, making it possible to see where the next generation of zoonotic arenaviral outbreaks could emerge," said senior author Pranav Pandit, an assistant professor of veterinary epidemiology at the UC Davis Weill School of Veterinary Medicine. For example, the models project that:
- Guanarito virus, which is found in central Venezuela, is expected to spread to parts of Colombia, the borders of Suriname and northern parts of Brazil.
- Machupo virus is expected to move from the plains and flatlands of Bolivia to the Andes foothills and mountain regions.
- Junin virus is expected to move from the grassland regions to other parts of Argentina, reducing risk in some regions while expanding risk to other areas.
- In all cases, populations with little or no prior exposure would be encountering these viruses for the first time, potentially increasing their vulnerability to infection and severe disease.
The risk of spillover is primarily driven by changes in temperature, precipitation, and land use, such as expanding agricultural and urban areas within rodent reservoir habitats.The authors say the results underscore an urgent need for coordinated climate-adaptive public health policies and transboundary collaboration among countries at risk.
Massive marine heat wave caused Caribbean coral reefs to collapse much faster than predicted -- For decades, coral reefs throughout the Caribbean have been suffering from disease, pollution, overfishing and rising sea temperatures, yet most have continued to grow—until now. In 2023 and 2024, surface temperatures climbed to record highs in the world's oceans, and a marine heat wave of unprecedented length and intensity spread across the tropics. Satellites from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration detected heat stress that could cause corals to bleach across more than 80% of the planet's reef areas. During these periods of extreme stress, corals expel the symbiotic algae that give them their color and most of their food—turning them stark white and leaving them vulnerable to starvation, diseases and eventually death.Across the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean, the heat stayed for months, with heat stress two-to-three times higher than reefs had ever experienced. Heat stress, the phenomena of high temperatures putting fragile ecosystems under pressure, can permanently alter their ability to function. This triggered what is now recognized as the fourth global coral bleaching event, the most severe one that has been documented. Coral reefs are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth, and their importance to people is fundamental. They feed hundreds of millions through small-scale fisheries, underpin tourism across the Caribbean, and serve as natural breakwaters that protect the coast from storms and reduce flooding events.In a new study, we found that across the Caribbean, the 2023 marine heat wave—combined with a deadly disease known as stony coral tissue loss disease—has pushed reefs over a threshold scientists thought was a decade or more away. They are now eroding faster than corals can rebuild them.We studied reefs in the Mexican Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, comparing data collected before the heat wave (2018–2022) with surveys after it (2023–24). At each reef, we counted live corals and organisms that break down the reef, like parrotfish and sea urchins. From those counts, we estimated how much reef-building (carbonate production) and reef-breaking (bioerosion) was happening, then calculated the net result—whether the reef was gaining or losing material.The results were stark: between 70% and 75% of our Caribbean sites had tipped from net growth into net erosion. They are now losing calcium carbonate faster than corals can add it. The threshold that earlier models had suggested might be crossed over during the next decade or so has already arrived.This shift was driven by the loss of fast‑growing, branching and plate‑forming corals, especially the Acropora species, which have very high growth rates and disproportionately contribute to reef building.One of our most unsettling findings is that the Caribbean reef sites that still had high coral cover and high carbonate production before the disease and heat wave were the ones that lost the most. Some lost up to 8 kilograms of calcium carbonate per square meter per year.
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria turn up in six lakes, with urban waters hit hardest --A team of scientists from Berlin analyzed water and sediment samples from six water bodies in Berlin and the adjacent federal states of Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, as well as the inflow and outflow of a wastewater treatment plant in Berlin. The scientists analyzed bacteria found in these samples and detected a higher diversity and load of antibiotic resistance genes in urban samples. The inflow and effluent from the treatment plant were the most heavily contaminated, but resistant bacteria were also found in rural lakes far from urban areas. The study is published in the journal iScience. The team analyzed water and sediment samples from the Weißer See and the Müggelsee in Berlin, the Stechlinsee and the Dagowsee in Brandenburg, the Haussee in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a farm pond in Brandenburg and the inflow and effluent of a wastewater treatment plant in Berlin. The samples were genetically analyzed and bacterial antimicrobial resistance genes classified. To do this, they employed different bioinformatic methods and genetic databases."This broad methodological approach enabled us to identify specific genes in the genomes of the bacterial species prevalent in the samples that are responsible for antibiotic resistance," "We were able to identify a total of 18 classes of 'antibiotic resistance genes' (ARGs)—varying in diversity and load at the different sites."All 18 of the resistance gene classes identified were present in the inflow to the wastewater treatment plant, and 16 of these were also found in the effluent, albeit at slightly lower concentrations. The treatment process was evidently only able to remove or sufficiently dilute the bacteria resistant to glycopeptide antibiotics and nitroimidazoles; all other ARG classes remained present in the treated water.
Microplastics pass through earthworms without accumulating in body tissues, study shows As much as 40 million metric tons of microplastics are released into the environment globally every year. These tiny pieces of plastic come from larger plastic items that break down or are shed by products such as clothing, paints, and cosmetics. Despite how widespread this waste has become, scientists still don't fully understand whether the particles can move from the digestive system into other body tissues, where they could cause long-term harm. To explore that question, researchers used the Canadian Light Source (CLS) at the University of Saskatchewan to track how microplastics move through earthworms. Earthworms play a key role in improving soil structure and are considered a good indicator of what happens when living organisms ingest tiny plastic particles. The research team, from the University of Guelph, put earthworms in soil containing far more plastic particles than they would normally be exposed to in the environment. The microplastics were made of polyethylene, one of the world's most common plastics, in sizes ranging from five to 20 microns—smaller than a human red blood cell. In lab tests, the scientists found the earthworms quickly ingested microplastics along with soil, reaching a consistent level in their systems within about two weeks. When the worms were transferred to clean soil, they seemed to eliminate nearly all the microplastics within a single day, suggesting the particles did not accumulate in their bodies. To confirm this, the team used the CLS's high-intensity X-rays to see where the microplastics went once they were inside the earthworms. The microplastics were coated with barium, which made them appear as bright white particles in the scans. The researchers mapped approximately 2,500 individual microplastic particles inside the earthworms; the imaging clearly showed that all the particles remained inside the gut and didn't cross into internal tissues. The team recently published their findings in the journal Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. "These results are good news for earthworms," says Nicholas Letwin, Ph.D. candidate and lead author on the paper. "The plastics are ingested and then simply pass through. They don't stay in the body indefinitely, which would be very detrimental for worms or any organism."
Colored microplastics could be making global warming worse - We already know microplastics pose a risk to health and can pollute ecosystems, but now researchers have discovered that tiny plastic particles drifting in Earth's atmosphere could be a significant contributor to global warming. According to a paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change, airborne microplastics trap nearly one-fifth as much heat as black carbon, also known as soot. Microplastics and nanoplastics (MNPs) generally come from the slow decomposition of large plastic products and synthetic fibers and range in size from billionths of a meter (nanoplastics) to up to a few millimeters (microplastics) in diameter. They have been found in every part of the planet, including drinking water, the guts of marine animals, and in Antarctic snow. Previous studies into microplastics in the atmosphere underestimated their impact on the climate because they often ignored the effect that different colored particles might have on heat absorption. The color of an object affects how much sunlight it absorbs or reflects, which in turn influences how it traps or radiates heat into the atmosphere. To address this knowledge gap, scientists from China and the U.S. first measured the optical properties of a range of individual colored plastics. This told them exactly how much sunlight different colors and sizes of plastic absorb or reflect. Then they used digital maps of wind and weather patterns to estimate how many plastic particles are floating in the air and where they concentrate. Finally, the team fed all this data into a computer model (called a Radiative Transfer Model) to calculate how much extra heat is trapped in the atmosphere because of these particles. They found that colored microplastics and nanoplastics absorb much more sunlight than previously estimated. While white particles mostly scatter light, darker shades like blue, red, and black can absorb up to 74.8 times more sunlight than uncolored plastic. The problem with this is that the particles then convert that energy into heat in the air around them. Annual mean global distribution of absorptive DRF. a, Spatial distribution of absorptive DRF for MNPs. b, Spatial distribution of absorptive DRF for BC. The color scale on the right indicates DRF values (W m−2 ). c, The ratio of DRF of MNPs versus that of BC. The study revealed that the global average warming effect (direct radiative forcing, or DRF) from these particles is 0.039 watts per square meter. "Colored MNPs intensify DRF by 15.3-fold compared with non-pigmented particles," write the paper's authors. In some parts of the world, such as the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre circulation, their warming effect was found to be nearly five times that of local soot. The scientists add, "MNPs emerge as dual-threat climate forcers, simultaneously driving radiative heating and carbon budget perturbations."
Plants at significant risk in a warming world, study warns. - A pair of studies published Thursday warned of the coming risks that climate change poses to plants and tallied up the swath of plant life that could blink out if species aren’t conserved.Both studies, which were published in Science, examined plant life in a world of mounting pressure from humans, including climate change and land use changes.In one study, led by Junna Wang of the Yale School of the Environment, researchers determined that around a tenth or more of surveyed plant species are likely to lose 90 percent or more of their habitat across a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.Over the next 55 to 75 years, the researchers mapped how climatic shifts like changes in precipitation and temperature will force species to relocate.
City trees are cooler than scientists thought - -Trees play a bigger role in cooling down cities than scientists previously realized. But they could struggle to block the heat as the planet continues to warm. A new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications, finds that tree cover is vital to offsetting the urban heat island effect — a phenomenon in which cities, densely populated and filled with concrete, tend to be hotter than the rural areas surrounding them. Urban tree cover worldwide mitigates nearly half of the extra heat cities accumulate compared to the nearby countryside, the research found.“That was the good news of the study,” said Rob McDonald, a scientist at The Nature Conservancy who co-authored the study. “We were pleasantly surprised.”
Timor green pigeon 'likely to go extinct' without urgent action, according to scientists The Timor green pigeon, which is under pressure from hunting and habitat loss, is at serious risk of extinction and should be uplisted to Critically Endangered, according to a new study from researchers at Charles Darwin University and BirdLife International. The study, published in Oryx, provides the clearest evidence of the rapid decline of the species, which is now estimated to number fewer than 500 individuals in Timor-Leste and is thought to be functionally extinct in neighboring Indonesia. The authors of the study say that the Timor green pigeon should be reclassified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List and that urgent action is needed in both countries to save the species and others like it. "It's very sad to see so few green pigeons left. What we need now is the government, conservation organizations and local communities to come together to stop it being lost forever." The study is based on over 1,400 days of field surveys by the authors between 2002 and 2025 throughout the Timor green pigeon's range, covering Timor-Leste, Jaco Island, West Timor, Rote Island, and Semau Island. Other historical and contemporary records by ornithologists and birdwatchers going back to 1969 were also included. In total, there were 96 records of Timor green pigeon, with 74 in Timor-Leste and the majority of these in Lautem district. The majority (82%) of the sightings were located in protected areas, particularly Nino Konis Santana National Park. Based on an assessment of all known field records, the authors estimate that there are 100–500 individuals left, with the authors suspecting that the true number is likely to be at the lower end of this estimate.
Megafires may drive the prairie grouse into sub-optimal habitats - Grasslands and associated wildlife in the Great Plains of North America have declined precipitously and are now experiencing an increase in large wildfire activity. In a Journal of Wildlife Management study evaluating habitat use by lesser prairie chickens—a prairie grouse of conservation concern—before and immediately after a 2017 megafire, investigators found that the birds were forced out of formerly high-quality habitat in large, contiguous grasslands and into sub-optimal habitat and smaller grassland patches near cropland.The researchers noted that megafires can pose a threat to grassland-dependent wildlife by removing large areas of high-quality habitat in the short-term, but conserving key habitat patches in sub-optimal areas may aid persistence."When most people think of megafires in the US, they think of big forest fires. But after another record fire year for the Great Plains in 2026, it's increasingly important to understand how these fires affect already fragmented grasslands and wildlife that depend on them,"
Vancouver breaks daily heat record set in 1898 as temperatures rise across British Columbia - Vancouver reached 23.9°C (75°F) on Monday, May 4, 2026, breaking the city’s daily maximum temperature record of 22.2°C (72°F) set in 1898. Multiple communities across British Columbia also set daily temperature records. A stationary ridge of high pressure brought above-seasonal temperatures to British Columbia on May 4 and 5, Environment Canada reported in its provincial weather summary issued at 18:07 PDT on Tuesday, May 5. Daily records include Lytton at 33.5°C (92.3°F), breaking the previous record of 32.3°C (90.1°F) set in 2013, with records kept since 1921; Smithers at 25.8°C (78.4°F), breaking 25.2°C (77.4°F) set in 2013, with records kept since 1938; Kitimat at 25°C (77°F), breaking 23.0°C (73.4°F) set in 1998, with records kept since 1951; and Sandspit at 16.3°C (61.3°F), breaking 15.7°C (60.3°F) set in 1981, with records kept since 1945. At least 19 British Columbia communities set new daily records on May 4, including Vancouver, Richmond, Squamish, Port Alberni, and Pemberton. Pemberton reached 31.5°C (88.7°F), the highest reported value among the listed May 4 locations. BC Hydro said increased use of fans and air conditioners pushed provincial electricity demand to about 7 600 MW, marking the highest May demand level recorded by the utility. May is a seasonal transition period in the Northern Hemisphere, when above-seasonal warmth begins increasing wildfire susceptibility in areas experiencing early drying.
Heavy, wet May snow disrupts Colorado’s Front Range - YouTube videos -A heavy, wet late-season snowstorm affected Colorado’s Front Range, foothills, mountains, and I-25 urban corridor from Tuesday, May 5, into Wednesday, May 6, 2026, closing schools, prompting travel advisories and shelter activation, delaying flights at Denver International Airport, and causing scattered power outages. NWS Denver/Boulder forecast 13-20 cm (5-8 inches) along the I-25 corridor, with local totals up to 30 cm (12 inches) near the foothills and Palmer Divide. Heavier mountain snow was also forecast along and north of I-70, where CDOT warned of hazardous travel conditions. o Winter Storm Warnings covered the I-25 corridor from Fort Collins, Boulder, and the Denver metro area to Castle Rock and Denver International Airport from 20:00 MDT Tuesday to 15:00 MDT Wednesday. The National Weather Service (NWS) warned that heavy snow accumulating on trees could break limbs, bring down power lines, and cause scattered outages, while slick and hazardous conditions remained possible for the Wednesday morning commute. The highest totals were forecast for Rocky Mountain National Park, the Medicine Bow Range, Estes Park, Red Feather Lakes, Nederland, and the northern Front Range foothills. NWS forecast 15-41 cm (6-16 inches) for Summit County, the Mosquito Range, Indian Peaks Wilderness, and the southern Front Range foothills, with the heaviest snowfall generally along and north of I-70. “A significant late-season winter storm is underway in the Rockies, with heavy snowfall expected to continue through tonight,” NWS forecaster Blanco-Alcala said. “Chances of at least minor impacts remain very high, at over 90%, per the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P).” Among early NWS Local Storm Reports, a public observer measured 27 cm (10.5 inches) of snow at 2 NE Sunshine in Boulder County at 23:00 MDT on May 5. Meteorologists at the Denver/Colorado NWS office said the midnight snowfall measurement at their office brought 14.4 cm (5.7 inches) of snow and warned that snowfall will intensify across the Denver metro again after 01:00 MDT on May 6. YouTube video The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) warned that the storm’s peak impacts would affect travel during the Wednesday morning commute, when cooling temperatures were expected to produce snow-covered roads at lower elevations before conditions improved Wednesday afternoon. About 100 CDOT plows were assigned to the Denver region during the storm, with crews prioritizing interstates and major roadways before secondary roads.
Nighttime tornadoes injure 17 and damage hundreds of homes in Mississippi - 4 YouTube videos - Nighttime tornadoes and severe thunderstorms tore across central and western Mississippi on Wednesday night, May 6, 2026, damaging hundreds of homes and injuring at least 17 people, according to state emergency officials. Authorities reported concentrated damage in Bogue Chitto, where a trailer park sustained heavy destruction. Severe thunderstorms swept across central and western Mississippi on Wednesday night, producing at least one confirmed tornado and causing widespread residential damage. Gov. Tate Reeves said multiple tornadoes were reported across the state and that the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) was coordinating response operations in affected areas. MEMA spokesperson Scott Simmons said at least 17 people were injured during the storms. Twelve of the injured were transported from the Wash Trailer Park in Bogue Chitto, where severe damage was reported after the storms moved through the community overnight. Damage assessments released Thursday showed more than 200 homes damaged in Lincoln County, where the Cajun Navy was deploying a 50-person shelter pod, a 30 kW generator, and 10 pallets of supplies. In Lamar County, 275 homes and 50 apartment units were damaged or inaccessible, 30 roads were closed due to debris, the county shelter/safe room was open, and American Red Cross support was available. 12 homes were damaged in Lawrence County, where multiple roads were closed by downed trees and power lines. “These numbers are preliminary and will change as damage assessments continue,” Reeves said, adding that MSEMA was supporting damage and operations assessments while road-clearing teams were deployed to remove debris. No fatalities were reported, although some unconfirmed overnight reports mentioned one fatality. The National Weather Service (NWS) said a “very large and dangerous tornado” moved from eastern Lincoln County into Lawrence County during the storms on Wednesday night. Earlier in the evening, NWS Jackson had issued a Tornado Emergency for Bude, Meadville, McCall Creek, Brookhaven, and Bogue Chitto as a large, destructive circulation moved east from Franklin County toward Lincoln County. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm reports later logged repeated radar-confirmed Tornado Debris Signatures along the Brookhaven corridor, including near West Lincoln, Enterprise, Harmony, and Monticello between 00:37 and 01:26 UTC on May 7. Storm impacts included damaged homes, blocked roads, uprooted trees, and downed power lines across several counties. Local crews and emergency personnel continued clearing debris and assessing structural damage on Thursday. YouTube video The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall are expected to persist across parts of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week as the frontal boundary responsible for the May 6 outbreak continues shifting across the region.
Floods and landslides leave 18 dead, over 60 missing across Kenya - YouTube videos - Flooding and landslides triggered by persistent rainfall in Kenya have affected at least 39 counties as of May 3, 2026, leaving 18 people dead and more than 60 missing. Nearly 55 000 households and 34 schools have been affected by the flooding that has destroyed approximately 8 100 ha (20 000 acres) of crops. Rivers overflowed across multiple regions, while landslides in Tharaka Nithi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, and Kiambu counties displaced households and damaged infrastructure. The National Police Service (NPS) in Kenya reported that, as of May 3, at least 18 people have died due to heavy rains, flooding, and landslides that have been affecting much of the country since April 21. Multiple rivers have overflowed due to rainfall affecting multiple regions and counties, including Tana River, according to EU ERCC. “Recent reports indicate that mudslides have occurred in Tharaka Nithi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, and Kiambu counties, severely affecting multiple families, displacing households, and causing significant damage to property and infrastructure,” said the NPS. Flooding has been affecting multiple counties and regions, including Tana River, Mombasa, Kwale, Tharaka Nithi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Kiambu, Eastern, Central, Coast, Nairobi, and Rift Valley. Among the 18 fatalities, nine were in the Eastern region, three in the Central region, and two each in the Coast, Nairobi, and Rift Valley regions. Meanwhile, over 60 people remain missing. Citizen TV Kenya reported that at least 39 counties have been struck by floods, affecting nearly 55 000 households and 34 schools. Approximately 8 100 ha (20 000 acres) of crops have been destroyed, while nine healthcare facilities were flooded and 17 roads remain cut off. Multiple agencies continue search and rescue operations, evacuating at-risk residents, providing emergency relief supplies, and assessing high-risk zones to prevent further loss of life. Homes and infrastructure in the affected areas have suffered significant damage and destruction; however, these damages have yet to be fully surveyed. “The public is strongly advised to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures, particularly those living in landslide-prone or flood-affected areas,” warned the NPS.
More than 300 mm (11.8 inches) of rain triggers flooding, evacuations, and dam overflow in South Africa - More than 301 mm (11.9 inches) of rain fell in parts of South Africa’s Garden Route after an intense cut-off low brought flooding, evacuations, road closures, and infrastructure damage across the Western and Eastern Cape from May 5–7, 2026. At least one person died in Knysna, hundreds were affected in Garden Route shelter operations, and emergency shelters were opened across flood-affected parts of Nelson Mandela Bay and the Eastern Cape. Heavy wave action elevated sea conditions Victoria Bay resulted in seawater pushing up past the public restrooms and into surrounding areas on May 6, 2026 An intense cut-off low that triggered South Africa’s highest-impact rainfall warnings earlier this week produced widespread flooding, evacuations, road closures, and infrastructure damage across parts of the Western and Eastern Cape between May 5 and 7. The system brought more than 301 mm (11.9 inches) of rain to parts of the Garden Route, forced evacuations in the Gamtoos Valley after Kouga Dam exceeded capacity, and left communities cut off across several districts. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) warned on May 5 that the slow-moving storm could generate prolonged heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hazardous coastal conditions, and flooding across multiple provinces. Orange Level 8 warnings, the highest issued during the event, were activated for parts of the Garden Route, Kouga, and Koukamma as authorities warned that rainfall totals of 150–200 mm (5.9–7.9 inches) could isolate communities, inundate roads, and sharply increase river and dam levels. By Thursday, May 7, the forecast impacts evolved into a major multi-region flood emergency affecting the Garden Route, Karoo, Nelson Mandela Bay, Kouga, and other parts of the Eastern Cape. At least one person died in Knysna after a tree fell onto her vehicle during the storm, hundreds were affected by shelter operations in the Garden Route District, and emergency response teams continued rescue, evacuation, and infrastructure assessment operations across flood-affected areas. The Garden Route District Municipality’s multi-agency command center said Thursday that weather warnings had been downgraded from Level 8 to Level 6, although Knysna, Bitou, and George/Langkloof remained areas of concern as rivers, dams, and catchments continued responding to several days of heavy rainfall. Stormdrift and Kammanassie dams began spilling overnight, increasing flows through the Groot River system toward Meiringspoort, Oudtshoorn, Calitzdorp Hot Springs, and Gouritz. Authorities warned that some roads and low-water crossings could remain inaccessible even as rainfall gradually subsided. The highest verified rainfall total was recorded at Joubertina, where cumulative rainfall since Monday, May 4, reached 301.2 mm (11.9 inches). Other major totals included 286.8 mm (11.3 inches) at Knysna Kleingrysbos, 285.6 mm (11.2 inches) at Knysna Diepwalle, 276.8 mm (10.9 inches) at Plett Newlands, 239.2 mm (9.4 inches) at Stormsrivier Forest Fern, 222.8 mm (8.8 inches) at Stormsrivier Witteklip, and 219.2 mm (8.6 inches) at Witfontein. Road closures affected the Garden Route and Karoo today, after flooding and increased water flow disrupted several routes, including Meiringspoort, Swartberg Pass, the N9, the Avontuur–Haarlem road, Robinson Pass from the Oudtshoorn side, and several district and provincial roads. The multi-agency command center said Meiringspoort could remain inaccessible for an extended period because of recorded damage.
'Super El Nino' raises fears for Asia reeling from Middle East conflict - Already reeling from the effects of conflict in the Middle East, Asia is now facing the prospect of strong El Niño conditions that could spike energy demand, sap hydropower, and damage crops. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that brings worldwide changes in winds, air pressure, and rainfall patterns. Last week, the United Nations' weather and climate agency said El Niño conditions could develop as soon as May to July. The World Meteorological Organization, meanwhile, said early signs indicated the event could be particularly strong, with some dubbing the impending event a "super El Niño," although the term is not used by scientists. That is not good news for Asia, parts of which are traditionally heavily affected by the heatwaves, drought, and heavy rains that El Niño can bring. The phenomenon essentially shifts traditional weather patterns around, for example moving rain that normally falls over Indonesia out to sea, leaving the country vulnerable to drought and wildfires. Indonesia battled devastating forest fires during a strong El Nino in 1997. El Niño occurs around every two to seven years and is forecast based on sea temperatures. "The subsurface anomaly that we're seeing so far is pretty strong," said Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Australia's Monash University. "It does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997/98 event, and that was probably the strongest El Niño," he told AFP. There are still plenty of uncertainties, and van Rensch cautioned it was possible an El Niño might not develop at all. But the 1997 El Niño brought catastrophic impacts, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that burned through millions of hectares and created regional air pollution. Authorities there have already identified peatlands at risk, and warned the country could see its lowest rainfall in 30 years. The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy supply crunch and fears over shortages of fertilizer and other industrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Farmers already facing high fertiliser and fuel costs could face drought or floods caused by El Nino. Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on February 28, disrupting global fuel supplies. Hotter weather will strain energy grids already experiencing fuel shortages, as populations seek to cool homes and workplaces, warned Haneea Isaad, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. "For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities... impacting overall GDP growth," she told AFP. The droughts that El Niño can bring to parts of the region also pose a threat to countries that are highly dependent on hydropower, said Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember thinktank. "Most ASEAN countries use a lot of hydropower," she warned, highlighting Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia as particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on the sector.
Scorched scenes show how Florida’s wildfire seasons could look in the future - — Florida could be on track for a record-shattering year of wildfires after nearly 2,000 blazes have scorched the state so far, forcing evacuations and causing millions of dollars in damages. From the Georgia border to the Everglades, wildfires have burned more than 120,000 acres — an area four times larger than Disney World — as of Sunday. Dozens of wildfires, fueled by the state’s most intense drought in decades, are still actively burning statewide. The droughts have put some areas under stringent water use restrictions, while wildfires have caused 49 of the state’s 67 counties to institute burn bans as of Tuesday. And Florida officials are bracing for more. “Typical year, we have [2,200] to 2,400 fires in a whole year, and we’re almost there already,” Florida Forest Service Director Rick Dolan said. “And we’re just now coming into May.”
Lava flow from Stromboli’s North crater reaches coastline, Italy - Lava overflow activity increased at Stromboli from 21:20 LT (19:20 UTC) on May 4, 2026, sending a flow from the North crater area down the Sciara del Fuoco to the coastline by about 03:00 LT (01:00 UTC) on May 5. INGV reported average volcanic tremor, a slight increase in explosion-related earthquakes, and no significant GNSS change. Video surveillance cameras recorded increased lava-overflow effusive activity from the North crater area at Stromboli volcano starting at 19:20 UTC on May 4. The lava flow advanced along the Sciara del Fuoco and reached the coastline around 01:00 UTC on May 5, while Strombolian activity continued in the North and Central-South crater areas. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Observatory (INGV-OE), reported volcanic tremor amplitude within the average range at the time of its May 5 update. The observatory recorded a slight increase in the occurrence rate and amplitude of explosion-related earthquakes, while the GNSS high-frequency network showed no significant change. Today’s activity follows intense spattering from the North crater area on May 4, feeding lava-overflow effusive activity with variable intensity. At 11:24 UTC on May 4, the most advanced lava front was in the middle-upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco, volcanic tremor was in the high range, while the GNSS network showed no significant change. Italy’s Department of Civil Protection lists Stromboli at a Yellow alert level. The department warned that lava flows and paroxysmal explosions at the volcano can destabilize the slope, generating landslides that can trigger tsunamis along Stromboli, Panarea, other Aeolian islands, Calabria, and Sicily. Stromboli has two inhabited centers, Stromboli and Ginostra, located in the northeastern and southwestern sectors of the island, respectively.
KÄ«lauea episode 46 ends after 9 hours of lava fountaining, tephra reaches Highway 11, Hawaii - Episode 46 of the ongoing HalemaÊ»umaÊ»u eruption at KÄ«lauea ended at 17:22 HST on May 5, 2026 (03:22 UTC on May 6), after about 9 hours of continuous lava fountaining from the north vent at the summit. USGS lowered the Volcano Alert Level from Watch to Advisory and the Aviation Color Code from Orange to Yellow after ground and aviation hazards decreased. Episode 46 began at 08:17 HST (18:17 UTC) on May 5 in HalemaÊ»umaÊ»u crater, within HawaiÊ»i Volcanoes National Park, and remained confined to the summit eruption area. The south vent did not produce sustained fountaining, but USGS reported periodic gas jetting and flames during the episode. The agency estimated a peak instantaneous effusion rate of just over 240 m³/s (310 yd³/s) around 09:50 HST, with an average effusion rate of 140 m³/s (180 yd³/s). About 4.6 million m³ (6 million yd³) of lava erupted, covering about 60% of the HalemaÊ»umaÊ»u crater floor. North vent fountains reached about 200 m (650 feet) above ground level between 10:00 and 10:30 HST, then declined to about 50 m (160 feet) before the episode stopped. The UÄ“kahuna tiltmeter recorded about 14 microradians of deflationary tilt during the episode. The lava fountain produced heat and ash that fed a plume reaching about 6 000 m (20 000 feet) above sea level, based on radar data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. Lower-level winds carried the plume and tephra toward the north and northwest of HalemaÊ»umaÊ»u, while higher-level winds carried the upper plume toward the north and northeast. NWS issued an Ashfall Advisory at 08:52 HST for HawaiÊ»i Volcanoes National Park and areas north and northeast, including Volcano and Mountain View. USGS reported tephra outside closed areas of the park along the north rim of Kaluapele, on Highway 11 between mile markers 30 and 34, and in adjacent communities. Tephra clasts as large as 15 cm (6 inches) were observed falling on Highway 11 inside the national park, while fine ash and Pele’s hair were reported as far as Mountain View. Earlier in the episode, USGS reported fist-sized and smaller clasts at UÄ“kahuna overlook and between mile markers 31 and 32 on Highway 11. From the south rim of HalemaÊ»umaÊ»u crater, the north vent lava fountain during episode 46 on May 5, 2026, rose above the crater rim. In the foreground, the damaged remains of Crater Rim Drive, which became impassable during the 2018 KÄ«lauea summit collapse, are littered with tephra fallout from past lava fountaining episodes.
Dukono eruption kills 3, triggers rescue operation in North Maluku, Indonesia - news video --Local police said three hikers died after Dukono volcano erupted on Halmahera Island, North Maluku, Indonesia, at 07:41 WIT (22:41 UTC on May 7) on May 8, 2026, sending volcanic ash about 10 km (6.2 miles) above the summit. Rescue teams evacuated 17 hikers while the search for three others continued. Authorities initially searched for 20 hikers, including nine Singaporeans and several Indonesians, after the eruption struck the area around Dukono. North Halmahera Police Chief Erlichson Pasaribu told local media that the dead included two foreign nationals and one resident of Ternate. Rescue authorities later said 17 people had been evacuated while search operations continued for the remaining missing hikers. Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas) said rescue operations began after an emergency signal from a Garmin device was detected near Dukono at about 08:55 local time and later confirmed by local authorities. The hikers were reportedly near the volcano when the eruption intensified, despite restrictions barring activity within 4 km (2.5 miles) of Malupang Warirang Crater. Search and evacuation work was hampered by steep terrain, ash exposure, continuing eruptive activity, low visibility, and the risk of additional volcanic material from the crater. Rescuers, police, military personnel, and local residents were deployed to evacuate survivors, move injured hikers by stretcher, and recover victims, while the circumstances of the deaths had not been officially detailed at the time of publication. “The latest information is that there are three fatalities,” Pasaribu told the media. “Two of them are foreign citizens from Singapore. The other one is a Ternate resident.” Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) said the eruption produced a dense ash column at approximately 10 800 m (35 500 feet) above sea level, or about 10 000 m (32 800 feet) above the summit, drifting northward. PVMBG issued a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) with Aviation Color Code Red after the eruption, while Darwin VAAC tracked volcanic ash reaching 12.8 km (42 000 feet) and moving northward, with additional ash up to 10.7 km (35 000 feet) moving southeast. The ash-height difference between PVMBG and Darwin VAAC estimates reflected different monitoring methods. PVMBG used ground-based visual observations from the volcano observatory, while Darwin VAAC relied on Himawari-9 infrared satellite analysis that identified detached ash clouds at higher flight levels. PVMBG maintained Alert Level II / Waspada for Dukono and advised residents, tourists, and climbers not to approach Malupang Warirang Crater within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the volcano. Climbing restrictions had already been in place before the eruption due to continued volcanic activity at the volcano. PVMBG said that ashfall could affect residential areas and Tobelo City and warned that rainfall could trigger volcanic mudflows on slopes surrounding the volcano. Nearby residents were advised to use masks or other respiratory protection. No confirmed flight disruptions or airport closures had been reported despite the Red aviation warning. Dukono, located on Halmahera Island in eastern Indonesia, is among the country’s most persistently active volcanoes and frequently produces ash emissions that affect aviation corridors across the Maluku region and adjacent western Pacific sector.
Climate scientist finds large errors in a global climate pollution database - New research from Northern Arizona University found that a global greenhouse gas emissions database produced by the Climate TRACE consortium, co-founded by former Vice President Al Gore, is underestimating vehicle carbon dioxide emissions in cities by an average of 70%. Today, professor Kevin Gurney of NAU's School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems (SICCS) published results in Environmental Research Letters analyzing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from cars and trucks in the recently released Climate TRACE database. He said these findings, combined with a previous study noting similar discrepancies at power plants, raise concerns because accurate and reliable information on greenhouse gas emissions is a critical ingredient for society's response to climate change. "Given the importance of vehicle CO2 emissions in cities, we carefully examined the Climate TRACE data which relied on promising new artificial intelligence-based approaches," Gurney said. "When combined with our previous study on Climate TRACE power plant CO2 emissions, our results suggest that the Climate TRACE data significantly underestimate over half of U.S. fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions in cities." Gurney and his team matched the Climate TRACE urban vehicle CO2 emissions in the United States to a similar "onroad" database, Vulcan, produced by Gurney's laboratory, which is calibrated to official traffic and energy consumption data. "While the Vulcan onroad data is not perfect, with uncertainty of about 14%, this is far lower than the differences found when we compared 260 city vehicle CO2 emissions in the U.S. to the Climate TRACE database," said Bilal Aslam, a SICCS postdoc and co-investigator on the study. "The Climate TRACE CO2 emissions were, on average, 70% lower than those same emissions in the Vulcan onroad CO2 emissions database." "Individual cities such as Indianapolis and Nashville were lower by more than 90%," added Pawlok Dass, a research associate in SICCS and contributor to the study. The study's authors suspect the underestimation is present globally and raise concerns about many other aspects of the Climate TRACE database. They believe that, though artificial intelligenceis a promising approach to providing information on many environmental metrics, scientific rigor, transparency and expert review remain essential to ensuring accuracy and maintaining trust. Accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions remains a cornerstone of effective climate policies.
Opening of world’s largest carbon removal plant delayed - -- Occidental Petroleum’s plan to begin operating the world’s largest carbon removal facility has hit an unexpected delay, with company leaders saying they’re uncertain how soon the problems can be fixed. The latest setback for Stratos, a direct air capture megaproject in West Texas, was announced Wednesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. Occidental had initially hoped to have the plant online by the end of 2024.Stratos is designed to use fans, heat and carbon-dioxide-absorbing materials to pull 500,000 metric tons of CO2 from the skies annually. By comparison, the largest DAC plant in operation today is capable of removing 36,000 tons per year.Richard Jackson, Occidental’s chief operating officer, told analysts that construction of Stratos was mostly finished. The company had begun testing the first of the plant’s two units, and “the technology and process unit operations performed as expected,” said Jackson, who will begin leading the company when CEO Vicki Hollub retires at the end of this month.
Masculine behavior bad for the planet says new research - Major new research on climate change, global warming and environmental collapse, how they connect with what men do, and what to do about it has just been published by a team including the University of Huddersfield's Professor Jeff Hearn.The journal Norma: International Journal for Masculinity Studies, features the research in the article "Men, masculinities, and the planet at the end of (M)Anthropocene."The journal's double special issue is edited by Professor Hearn and colleagues from around the world—professors Kadri Aavik (Tallinn University, Estonia), Martin Hultman (University of Gothenburg, Sweden) and Tamara Shefer (University of Western Cape, South Africa).It brings together new research by 22 researchers from 13 countries on questions as diverse as climate denial in Canadian pipeline politics, environmental impacts of Chinese policies in the Pacific Ocean, pro-meat online influencers in Finland, and positive action by men activists in Africa, Latin America, the UK, and globally.Professor Hearn, professor of sociology in Huddersfield's Department of Social and Psychological Sciences, says, "There is now plenty of research that shows clear negative impacts of some men's behavior on the environment and climate; what is astonishing is how this aspect does not figure in most debate and policy in a more sustainable world." The team's findings:
- Men tend to have a greater carbon footprint and greater environmental impact through consumption, especially travel, transportation, and tourism
- Men tend to have less concern with climate change, and less willingness to change everyday practices to ameliorate it
- Men tend to be less ambitious and less active in environmental politics, and less supportive of political parties that work for environmental justice
- Men tend to be more involved in owning, managing, controlling heavy, chemical, carbon-based, industrialized agriculture, high environmental impact and extractive industries, and of course militarism, with its own devastating environmental effects
- These damaging patterns apply especially to elite men in the global North
- But some men are working urgently and energetically to change these tendencies.
Wars destroy lives and the climate. Why aren't we counting military emissions? --When delegates gathered for COP30 in Belém, Brazil in November 2025, they scrutinized various sectors of the global economy for their contributions to rising greenhouse gases. Agriculture, aviation, steel, cement—all were on the table. One topic not discussed was war. This isn't a minor oversight. Militaries are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has generated an estimated 311 million tons of what's known as CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the combined annual emissions of Belgium, New Zealand, Austria and Portugal. CO₂ equivalent is the metric used to compare the warming impact of various greenhouse gases to carbon dioxide. Recently published research calculated that the first 15 months of Israel's war in Gaza generated more than 33 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the combined 2023 annual emissions of Costa Rica and Slovenia. In February 2026, Israel and the United States launched a war against Iran, joining a long list of other conflicts where emissions go uncounted in global inventories. These are massive emissions, and they are generated with no formal mechanism to record, report, or attribute them, and no accountability for the climate costs that affect people in conflict zones and far beyond. A recent article by Neta Crawford, a researcher with the Cost of War project at Brown University, highlights how armed forces, militarization, and war fuel climate change. She argues that military emissions and conflict-related emissions remain undercounted, even though they undermine efforts to mitigate climate change. Estimates suggest militaries and their supply chains account for approximately 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, which is enough to make them the world's fourth largest emitter if counted as a country. And that figure only covers peacetime. This is what researchers call the military emissions gap: the difference in emissions between what governments report and what their armed forces actually emit. The problem starts with the rules. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries have been exempt from fully reporting military emissions since the Kyoto Protocol negotiations in the 1990s. The United States successfully lobbied for the exclusion on national security grounds. The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced voluntary reporting. However, as a 2025 briefing from the Conflict and Environment Observatory and Griffith University made clear, the result is a system that is "patchy, incomplete or missing altogether." The top three military spenders—the U.S., China, and Russia—either submit no data or incomplete, non-disaggregated figures. This is a structural blind spot that excludes one of the most carbon-intensive sectors from meaningful accountability. Crawford's study on Gaza provides a comprehensive account of the war's full carbon cycle. It found that direct combat emissions—jets, rockets, artillery, military vehicles—account for just 1.3 million of the 33.2 million tons of CO₂ equivalent. The vast majority, more than 31 million tons, is projected to come from the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure: nearly 450,000 apartments, over 3,000 kilometers of roads, schools, hospitals, and water systems. Rebuilding what war destroys is, climatically speaking, the biggest act of war of all. A report on Russia's invasion of Ukraine by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War found that direct combat emissions constitute 37% of total emissions between February 2022 and 2026. The war has ignited thousands of fires in forests and wetlands, accounting for 23% of its total carbon footprint. Russia's attacks on electrical infrastructure have further released sulfur hexafluoride, a greenhouse gas 24,000 times more potent than CO₂, from high-voltage switching gear. And the rerouting of civilian aircraft around Ukrainian and Russian airspace has added an estimated 20 million extra tons of CO₂ equivalent compared to pre-invasion flight paths. In Iran, it is estimated that the U.S.-Israel war has unleashed over five million tons of CO₂ equivalent—largely from infrastructure destruction and energy-related impacts. None of this appears in any country's reports on emissions to the UNFCCC.
Space junk falls to Earth faster when sunspots peak, reshaping satellite collision forecasts -- Solar emissions exert 'drag' on space junk orbiting Earth. From historical measurements across a period of 36 years, researchers have now shown that space junk begins to fall down much faster once the sun's activity across the solar cycle reaches approximately 67% of its peak. This result, which is expected to hold for station-keeping satellites too, is important for better planning of space missions that avoid collisions.A low Earth orbit (LEO) between 400 and 2,000 km altitude is ideal for imaging and surveillance satellites and internet "mega-constellations" such as Starlink. Unfortunately, these days it's also chock-full of "junk" like old satellite debris and rocket stages, and these threaten new space launches. For example, even one collision may spread damage through a domino effect. Because missions to capture space junk with robots are still in their infancy, scientists today focus mainly on tracking debris more accurately to identify the most dangerous objects for future removal. "Here we show that space debris around Earth loses altitude much faster when the sun is more active," said Ayisha M Ashruf, the corresponding author of a new study in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences."For the first time, we find that once solar activity passes a certain level, this loss of altitude happens noticeably more quickly. This observation is expected to be key for planning sustainable space operations in the future."The sun has an 11-year cycle of active and quiet phases—correlated with the number of sunspots—which results in changes in the intensity at which it emitsUV radiation and charged particles, for example helium nuclei and heavy ions. When this outward stream peaks, like most recently in late 2024, solar emissions heat and expand upwards into the Earth's thermosphere (located between approximately 100 and 1,000 km, with a temperature between 500 and 2,500 °C). This in turn raises the atmospheric density around orbiting bodies (between 350 and 36,000 km) and increases the resistance or 'drag' on them, thus slowing them down and making them fall faster.Ayisha and colleagues from the same institute followed the historic trajectory of 17 LEO space junk objects over a 36-year period since the 1960s, during the 22nd through 24th solar cycles. These objects orbit the Earth every 90 to 120 minutes at an altitude between 600 and 800 km, and are yet to reenter the atmosphere, where they will ultimately burn up.Because space junk doesn't perform active station-keeping maneuvers like satellites do, changes in the speed of their descent ('orbital decay') only depend on fluctuations in thermospheric density. "This makes space debris an excellent tool for tracing long-term solar-activity effect on atmospheric drag," wrote the authors.
Border wall construction scars ancient Indigenous site in Arizona - When Wynona Larson Yazzie saw construction equipment near an ancient Indigenous ground etching in Arizona last month, she started praying. Crews working to build out President Donald Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall bulldozed across it just hours later, she said.The Las Playas Intaglio, a gigantic fish-shaped carving important to Native American tribes like Larson Yazzie’s, suffered severe damage April 23. Contractors ran heavy machinery over the 1,000-year-old geoglyph located in Arizona’s Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge, marring the image with a roughly 50-foot-wide scrape mark. The Washington Post first reported on the damage last week.The administration is fast-tracking its border wall construction, in part by using provisions of the 2005 REAL ID Act, which allows for certain projects to bypass environmental, cultural and public health protections while building border barriers.“The significance of this site was not unknown,” said Verlon Jose, chair of the Tohono O’odham Nation, in a video posted to social media. “It had already been identified. It had already been marked as a place to protect, and yet, it was still lost.”
Even the most remote ocean is contaminated with zinc from human sources, research reveals - The vast, deserted South Pacific is considered unspoiled nature. But this ocean is not as unspoiled as we would like to think. A new study by a group of researchers from ETH Zurich and the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel sheds light on this premise. The researchers have shown that zinc released by the combustion of fossil fuels and by industrial emissions has reached the most remote corners of the ocean and is now far more common in these waters than zinc from natural sources."There is no more untouched nature, not even in the South Pacific, which is as far away from the nearest civilization as the astronauts on the International Space Station," states Tal Ben Altabet, the lead author of the study, which has been published in Communications Earth & Environment. Altabet is a postdoctoral researcher in the group of Derek Vance, Professor of Geochemistry at ETH Zurich.Zinc and other metals are released into the atmosphere during the combustion of fossil fuels, coal burning and metal smelting. The emitted metals attach to tiny aerosols in the air, which can travel thousands of kilometers before settling on the surface waters of the open ocean. In this way, atmospheric aerosols can transport metals from industrial areas to even the most remote seas. Zinc and other trace elements such as iron and copper are essential for marine life. In particular, microscopic marine algae, phytoplankton, need zinc for photosynthesis. Through this process, phytoplankton absorbs carbon dioxide and produces organic matter and oxygen. In this way, these tiny green algae play a central role in regulating Earth's climate. In recent years, scientists have begun to measure not only the concentrations of trace metals in seawater but also their isotopic composition.Isotopes are variants of an element with different weights, and their ratios form a chemical fingerprint. These isotopic fingerprints help identify metal sources and track the processes they undergo in the ocean. Oceanic zinc is relatively enriched in heavier isotopes such as Zn-66, whereas human emissions are typically enriched in lighter isotopes such as Zn-64.Over the past ten years, marine geochemists have been investigating an unusual isotopic fingerprint in the upper ocean. Some researchers have attributed these anomalies to natural processes in the ocean, such as the adsorption of zinc onto particles in seawater. More recently, others have suspected that the anomalies reflect the input of zinc from human sources, delivered by atmospheric aerosols.To resolve this question, the team pursued a novel approach: instead of analyzing only the zinc dissolved in seawater, they also investigated the isotopic composition of zinc in particles in seawater and in aerosols from the atmosphere.To better identify human emission sources, the researchers also measured the isotopic composition of lead – an established indicator of environmental pollution. The results of the study were clear: the researchers found that zinc from human emissions, delivered by aerosols, is the dominant source of zinc in the upper layer of the South Pacific. By contrast, traces of zinc from natural sources were almost undetectable.
Toxic soil found at golf course where East Wing debris was dumped amid Trump ballroom project -Soil taken from the White House as part of construction for President Trump’s ballroom project which was dumped at nearby East Potomac Park tested positive for toxic chemicals, according to a new report.The soil, which was dumped near one of the three golf courses at East Potomac, tested positive for lead, chromium and other toxic metals, The New York Times reported, citing data from the National Park Service (NPS).Trump is eyeing a takeover of the D.C. public golf system with the East Potomac site in mind, an effort that has sparked legal challenges from district golfers and national preservation groups.A spokesperson for the Department of the Interior told the Times “the soil was tested, multiple times by multiple parties, and this project passed all standards set by law,” and insisted the “thorough process was followed” to ensure the transfer of the material from the White House grounds “was safe for the public.”The D.C. public golf system has for the last several years been operated by the National Links Trust, which leased the land from NPS and said it was surprised to learn of the Trump administration’s attempted takeover of the East Potomac property.At a hearing on Monday, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes declined to immediately block the Trump administration from beginning work on the property but instructed the NPS notify the preservation group if they plan to cut down more than 10 trees or if plans change. “I understand mercury and lead, if its there is bad, but its there,” Reyes said during the hearing. “I’m not going to ask them to dig it all up without good reason to.”
White House demolition sent contaminated dirt to golf course - Dirt that the Trump administration dumped on a Washington golf course after removing it from the White House’s East Wing demolition site tested positive for toxic elements like lead, chromium and arsenic, according to new data commissioned by the National Park Service. The agency published last week the results of a first batch of soil samples collected between late October and early April. Dozens of chemicals were detected above background levels, according to soil sampling data by Jacobs Engineering Group taken from the stockpile of dirt. The company had the soil analyzed for a suite of potential public health concerns, including volatile organic compounds, asbestos, pesticides and select heavy metals. A handful of compounds, including arsenic and lead, were detected at levels that could pose a risk to human health. The data sheds light on the composition of a pile of dirt that’s become an unexpected sticking point in a larger dispute over the Trump administration decision last year to tear down the East Wing to make room for a 90,000-square-foot ballroom. Last year, the administration dumped excavated soil from the White House grounds at the East Potomac Golf Links, which is owned by the National Park Service.
Waterkeeper takes aim at Neville Chemical over thousands of water pollution violations - -- The non-profit Three Rivers Waterkeeper, represented by Appalachian Mountain Advocates, has sent a 60-day notice to Neville Chemical of its intent to sue the company for violating its water pollution permit nearly 9,500 times. “We just want our industries to not pollute our drinking water sources and not pollute critical habitat for our plants and animals,” said Waterkeeper executive director Heather Hulton VanTassel. After receiving complaints about intense smells around Neville Island, along the Ohio River near Pittsburgh, the Waterkeeper group couldn’t identify the source. “It’s really hard on the Ohio River to document if we find something in the riverway where exactly it’s coming from, just because there are a lot of industries that do discharge into that region,” she said. So, they started analyzing self-reported water discharge data from permitted facilities in southwestern Pennsylvania submitted to the state Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Of the 69 facilities the group included in its analysis, many had permit violations, but Neville Chemical, which makes adhesives and sealants, stood out as one of the worst offenders, according to Hulton VanTassel. “That’s when we uncovered their consistent exceedances of a variety of different contaminants, including some hydrocarbons, into our waterways that exceeded what they were allowed to put into the waterway,” she said.According to Hulton VanTassel, the company’s Neville Island plant exceeded its permit limits for hydrocarbons, such as benzene, as well as pH, total suspended solids, and oil and grease.The Ohio River is a drinking water source for five million people. “So we’re impacting drinking water supply, not just for us, but for everyone downstream,” she said.According to the Waterkeeper’s notice to the company, Neville Chemical’s own data revealed as many as “9,494 days of violations since July 2021.”“Each time they violate a particular contaminant is considered a violation day,” Hulton VanTassel explained. She said that if the DEP had taken enforcement action against the company, the Waterkeeper would not be legally allowed to step in. “But there was no notice of violation and enforcement action,” she said. “And that’s why we’re able to step in using the Clean Water Act.” Neither the DEP nor Neville Chemical responded to requests for comment. They have two months to respond to the Waterkeeper’s notice of intent to sue.
From debris to acid rain: The environmental cost of US-Israeli ecocidal war on Iran -- Following the launch of the war imposed by Israel and the United States against Iran on February 28, numerous civilian targets across the country were struck, causing extensive environmental damage, condemned as ecocide in many cases. Among these attacks, the targeting of oil storage facilities in various parts of Tehran on the ninth day of the war stands out as one of the most blatant examples of this approach. The aggressive strikes not only caused significant material destruction but also triggered the widespread release of environmental pollutants across urban areas, leaving serious consequences for public health and environmental quality. According to available reports, on March 8, several fuel-related and oil storage targets in Tehran and Alborz provinces were hit. Accounts point to multiple storage depots and at least one oil transfer and logistics center being targeted, including sites in the northern, southern, and western parts of Tehran, as well as a facility in Karaj. A review of local media reports suggests that four primary targets were struck: oil facilities in Kouhak, Fardis, Shahran, and Shahr-e Rey. The powerful explosions of fuel tanks caused widespread destruction in the surrounding areas. One of the most striking cases was the destruction of a dialysis treatment center in Fardis on the outskirts of Tehran. Officials also reported damage to two schools and approximately 100 residential units. In addition to human casualties, including six deaths and 21 injuries reported in Fardis alone, the immediate aftermath of the attacks involved massive fire and plumes of dense, dark smoke that blanketed parts of Tehran’s sky. Field reports and eyewitness accounts described suffocating air conditions, severe irritation of the eyes and throat, and the accumulation of soot and a black residue covering vehicles and urban surfaces. Visual evidence also indicated the leakage of petroleum products into streets—an issue of major environmental concern, as it signifies the direct transfer of hydrocarbons into surface drainage systems, urban soils, and potentially groundwater reserves through infiltration and rainfall runoff. This contamination is not confined to the immediate sites of the attacks; it can spread over wide distances, affecting surrounding regions and even distant cities. Media reported that the level of air pollution in Tehran following the bombardment was so severe that it extended to areas such as Garmsar and Eyvanki in Semnan Province—regions located nearly 100 kilometers away from the capital. The explosion of oil depots released vast quantities of toxic compounds, including hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides, into the atmosphere. These substances can combine with atmospheric moisture and form highly acidic precipitation. Acid rain of this nature poses serious risks, including chemical burns to the skin and significant respiratory damage. The air quality in Tehran deteriorated so drastically after the attacks and subsequent fires that the city council urged residents to wear multilayered masks and to remain cautious about the dangers of acid rain. The Ministry of Health similarly advised individuals with respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, as well as pregnant women, to use protective masks such as N95, FFP2, or FFP3 when going outdoors. In addition, the Iranian Red Crescent issued an advisory outlining six critical recommendations: avoid leaving home immediately after acid rainfall due to lingering acidic vapors; refrain from using evaporative coolers; protect unpackaged food items from exposure; regularly cleanse respiratory pathways; replace filters in water purification systems; and avoid using windshield wipers without water to prevent spreading acidic residues. Such urgent and detailed guidelines from official bodies underscored the severity and potentially lethal nature of the environmental conditions created by these attacks. Fine particulate matter and irritant gases can exacerbate asthma, bronchitis, and acute respiratory symptoms, with particularly severe effects on vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with preexisting health conditions. Microscopic particles, including PM2.5 and even smaller fractions, can penetrate deep into the lungs and, in some cases, enter the bloodstream. As a result, the health risks associated with these attacks may surpass even the immediate physical dangers posed by explosions, highlighting the profound and often overlooked impact of environmental warfare on civilian populations. Iranian environmental authorities have strongly condemned these actions. Shina Ansari, the head of the Department of Environment, described the attacks as a clear violation of international norms, emphasizing that targeting environmentally sensitive infrastructure in densely populated urban areas is unjustifiable. Such acts, Ansari stated, "constitute a clear example of an environmental crime - ecocide." A recent report by Iran’s environmental authorities on the “Ramadan War” provides further insight into the scale of the damage. According to the report, the total volume of petroleum products that burned in just three oil storage complexes in Shahran, Shahr-e Rey, and Kouhak exceeded 360,000 cubic meters. The resulting emissions were estimated to be nearly one million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Experts also estimate that approximately 4,000 tons of aromatic compounds and volatile organic compounds, substances known to pose serious threats to environmental and human health, were released during these attacks. Additionally, strikes on fuel depots in Fardis alone resulted in the emission of more than 53,000 tons of carbon dioxide and approximately 220 tons of aromatic compounds. The environmental consequences of such incidents are not limited to the immediate aftermath, according to several environmental studies. One of the most pressing challenges associated with explosions in fuel storage facilities is their long-term impact on surrounding ecosystems. Massive quantities of toxic gases, particulate matter, and chemical residues are released into the air, rapidly degrading air quality to hazardous levels. The combustion of petroleum and its derivatives produces a range of harmful substances, including sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and soot. These compounds are highly damaging to both human health and ecological systems. When combined with atmospheric moisture, they can return to the surface as acid rain, contaminating soil, water resources, and agricultural products. The infiltration of petroleum products and combustion byproducts into soil leads to long-term contamination and reduced soil fertility. If these pollutants reach groundwater aquifers, they can jeopardize access to safe drinking water for entire communities. Many of the released compounds are also carcinogenic, posing long-term health risks to exposed populations. In the short term, air pollution contributes to increased rates of respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular conditions, and skin sensitivities. Over the long term, it may lead to chronic diseases and broader public health crises.
Enviros say Supreme Court decision boosts states' ‘climate superfunds’ – A recent Supreme Court decision allowing a soldier to sue a military contractor in state court undercuts the Trump administration’s efforts to erase state climate laws, New York state and a coalition of environmental groups contend. The Department of Justice last spring sued New York and Vermont in an effort to invalidate the states’ “climate superfund” laws that seek payment from energy producers for greenhouse gas emissions. But in notices filed Tuesday and last week in two federal courts, groups supporting the states say the Supreme Court’s recent ruling suggests the states have the edge. In their April 22 decision in Hencely v. Fluor Corp., the justices found that a soldier injured in a suicide bombing on an American base in Afghanistan can sue a military contractor in state court for failing to supervise the employee who built the explosive vest. Former Army specialist Winston Hencely sued Fluor after an Army investigation faulted the company’s failure to supervise Ahmad Nayeb, an Afghan employee. Texas-based Fluor argued it could not be sued because it was working during wartime for the federal government. In a 6-3 ruling written by Justice Clarence Thomas, the majority found that companies are protected when fulfilling government contracts — but Fluor failed to deliver on its duties. The Conservation Law Foundation and other groups intervening in DOJ’s lawsuit against Vermont say the Supreme Court’s decision underscores that federal law does not always override state law. The Trump administration’s claims against Vermont “fail for the same reasons as the preemption defense in Hencely,” the groups wrote.Like the military contractor, DOJ in the Vermont Superfund case has “failed to point to a specific constitutional or statutory text” to support its theory, the groups said.The Trump administration’s argument that “the Constitution’s structure implicitly preempts’ state laws ‘connected to’ interstate pollution ‘has no basis in the text of the Constitution,’“ the groups wrote. They added that the federal government also failed to establish a “significant conflict” between a “uniquely federal interest” and Vermont’s law.The groups noted the Supreme Court held that a state law is not preempted “merely because there is an alleged ‘indirect burden on federal activities’ such as increased costs to the federal government.”New York’s notice also pointed to the Supreme Court decision and said the federal government has “failed to identify a significant conflict” between the purported federal interest and the Empire State’s Climate Act.The Department of Justice told the court Tuesday that the states’ reference to the Supreme Court decision is “irrelevant to this case and blind to binding precedent. “Adam Gustafson, principal deputy assistant attorney general for DOJ’s environment division, argued that an appeals court in 2021 found that interstate pollution is an area of “uniquely federal interest” and that there is a conflict when a state seeks damages for emissions originating beyond its borders.He added that Hencely, which covered a subject “entirely different from interstate pollution, did not cast any doubt on this longstanding precedent, much less implicitly overrule it.”Environmental attorneys have also suggested the Supreme Court’s ruling in Hencely could affect the justices’ handling of an attempt by the oil and gas industry to quash lawsuits from local governments seeking compensation for the costs of climate change.If the Trump administration wants to argue that federal law blocks state climate actions, it will need to point to a specific federal statute to support those claims, Dan Farber, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in a recent blog post.“Arguments based merely on the inappropriateness of state regulation or the strength of the national interest involved in an issue are not going to be enough,” Farber said.
California investigates Trump admin deal to cancel offshore wind project - California on Monday responded to the Trump administration’s recent effort to kill a major West Coast offshore wind project by launching an investigation. California Energy Commission Executive Director Drew Bohan sent a letter to Golden State Wind LLC saying that his agency had opened an investigation into the “premature relinquishment” of its federal offshore wind lease and potential violations of the law.The CEC issued the company an administrative investigative subpoena demanding communications with the Department of the Interior, the federal agency that manages offshore wind leases.A California Department of Justice attorney wrote in an attached letter that “we … anticipate potential litigation involving the federal government and parties to lease buyouts impacting California’s energy needs and offshore wind programs.”
PA’s Democrat House Passes Bill to Allow Fracking for Geothermal – Marcellus Drilling News --Yet another rankly hypocritical move by the Democrats in the Pennsylvania legislature. Yesterday, every single Democrat in the PA House voted in lockstep (as they typically do, under the leadership’s complete control) to pass House Bill (HB) 2076, titled “Advancing Geothermal Energy Development.” The Dems were assisted by 16 Republicans who were (charitably) hoodwinked. No matter. The bill won’t pass in the Senate. But why point out this vote? Because the “advanced” geothermal energy that the House wants to promote and regulate uses the very same drilling rigs and fracking as is used to drill in the Marcellus shale, revealing the hypocritical lies of the Democrat left in demonizing fracking. But there’s another reason we’re highlighting this news: The environmental left (including House Democrats) is seeking to increase drilling setbacks in the state from 500 feet to 3,281 feet (and, in some cases, 5,280 feet). Do the House Dems realize the new setbacks would not only ban ALL shale fracking in the state but also all geothermal fracking?
AI boom sparks rare warning of ‘significant risks’ to grid - North America’s grid watchdog is slated to issue its highest level of warning Monday about threats to the power system from large data centers, underscoring the challenges facing utilities and grid operators grappling with a surge in electricity demand. The move signals a new chapter where major technology companies like Amazon and Microsoft may face stricter rules on how they use power. The Level 3 alert from the North American Electric Reliability Corp., the grid’s not-for-profit security monitor, was developed after reports of data centers abruptly going offline in Virginia and Texas, raising concerns about blackouts. “Computational loads, such as data centers, could increase exponentially in the next four years,” NERC said in a draft of the alert, adding that “significant risks” to the bulk power system “need to be addressed through immediate industry action.” Lee Shaver, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called NERC’s action a “big deal,” noting it is only the third time in history that the organization has issued a Level 3 alert. Currently, data centers don’t have to follow the same rules as power plants in informing grid monitors when they are coming online and offline, a factor Shaver and other analysts called a “huge obstacle” to reliability. Operators of data centers running energy-intensive artificial intelligence models also aren’t typically required to share data about sharp power swings that could damage equipment. A paper from dozens of scientists from Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI scientists warned last year that AI power swings can “cause physical damage” to grid infrastructure. The Level 3 alert — to be sent to transmission owners, grid operators, utilities and other companies running the grid — is set to recommend seven “essential actions” to ease risks to the power system from “large loads” such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. Ultimately, NERC is putting the pieces in place for mandatory reliability standards for data centers. They would require approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. NERC’s alert calls for transmission planners to develop a detailed list of “modeling data, settings, and parameters needed from computational loads” and study the grid stability “margin” at least annually in areas with large AI infrastructure, according to the draft. Transmission owners should install and utilize fault recording devices to assess data center performance during grid disturbances, the draft recommendations said. While the actions are not mandatory, it’s essential to push companies to act now to avoid grid disturbances before stricter regulations are in place, said Shaver. Data centers need to be providing more information on what they plan to do — and not do — on the grid, analysts said. “It’s really important to put data centers on notice as soon as possible that they are going to be subject to new rules,” said Abe Silverman, an assistant research scholar and electricity expert at Johns Hopkins University. Part of the challenge is that AI infrastructure is getting larger, with multiple gigawatt-scale complexes planned across the country. A gigawatt is enough to power a city of roughly 750,000 homes. Data centers could use between 9 to 17 percent of U.S. power by the end of the decade, according to the Electric Power Research Institute. In prepping the alert, NERC cited “load loss events” since 2022 in the Eastern Interconnection and Texas where data centers unexpectedly disconnected from the grid. Shaver compared the effect to turning off a large appliance like a garbage disposal quickly, causing kitchen lights to flicker. If that effect is scaled up to a gigawatt, “it’s going to have massive impacts across the grid,” he said. There can be similar grid disturbances if data center power suddenly comes back online, he said.
Colorado lawmakers eye coal plant extension -- Colorado lawmakers are poised to extend the life of a coal plant three years beyond a state-mandated retirement deadline — a backtrack that underscores Colorado’s growing tension between climate goals and energy affordability. Under state law, Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) was required to shutter the Ray Nixon Power Plant by the end of 2029, part of the state’s effort to fully move away from coal power by 2031 and run a 100 percent renewable energy grid by 2040.But the process of replacing the plant with renewable sources has proven more expensive and time-consuming than anticipated, and CSU has warned that sticking to the 2029 date could risk raising costs on ratepayers.A compromise bill on the Senate floor this week would allow the utility to keep the plant open until the end of 2032. As part of an agreement with Democratic Gov. Jared Polis — who signed the state’s emissions goals into law — the utility will craft a plan to reduce 95 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2040.
GE Vernova, Blue Energy plan ‘gas-plus-nuclear’ station in Texas -- Electric turbine giant GE Vernova is partnering with the nuclear startup Blue Energy to supply a Texas data center project with gas-fueled electricity and nuclear power — as part of a single energy station.The announcement Tuesday that the companies are partnering to generate 2.5 gigawatts of power comes as the energy industry grows increasingly skeptical that nuclear reactors can be built fast enough to power the artificial intelligence industry’s largest data centers. It took more than a decade to build the most recent nuclear units to come online in the United States.But Blue Energy says it has a fix: Burn natural gas before the nuclear station is built.“We basically did that to accelerate commercial operation dates and to enable project financing on a first-of-the-kind nuclear project, which reduces our cost of capital. It basically catalyzes nuclear using gas financially,” Jake Jurewicz, co-founder and CEO of Maryland-based Blue Energy, said in an interview. “It buys us at least two years of acceleration on producing power by doing this gas-to-nuclear.”
In pivotal move, PJM puts new power market designs on the table - PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. power market, on Wednesday openly questioned its own design and mission, as the upper Midwest and mid-Atlantic regional grid operator struggles to address an electricity supply crunch and a political crisis around energy affordability.Pennsylvania-based PJM, regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is beset by criticism from governors and members of Congress who face midterm election voters angry about higher electricity prices that have fueled inflation fears. At the same time, PJM is under immense pressure to reform itself for the purpose of serving rapidly rising energy demand from technology companies and their data centers. The Trump administration along with utility companies with multibillion-dollar energy projects on the drawing boards to power data centers are pressing PJM to speed up grid interconnections. PJM circulated a 70-page white paper Wednesday that cast PJM’s need to change the wholesale power market in stark terms. “Wholesale electricity markets are extraordinary institutions, and their most essential infrastructure is not a price curve or a performance obligation — it is legitimacy,” wrote PJM CEO David Mills. “Generators, utilities, investors and consumers must all believe, at a basic level, that the rules are fair, stable and the product of a process they recognize as credible.” Mills also seemed to defend PJM against criticism that it’s been too slow to propose fundamental changes to its market design.“We have also deliberately refrained from recommending a path. Some may read that as institutional caution. It reflects something more specific: a conviction, deepened by this work, that the choices described here are not primarily engineering or design choices,” Mills wrote.“Those choices belong to the people and institutions with democratic accountability for their consequences — to state regulators and legislatures, to FERC, to consumers and the advocates who represent them,” Mills wrote. “PJM’s role is to ensure those choices are made clearly, not to substitute our judgment for theirs.”PJM’s high-powered transmission system delivers electricity across a region stretching from Chicago to North Carolina. It includes Virginia’s Data Center Alley, a growing hub home to roughly one-quarter of U.S. data centers. Some energy experts warn data center clusters are straining the regional grid and risking blackouts. PJM is scrambling to secure new power generation to meet projected demand, with a shortage coming as soon as 2027. But prices for its key mechanism for doing that — the capacity market — are now capped after the White House and state officials led by Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro pushed for price controls after a sharp increase led to billions of dollars in costs flowing into household utility bills starting last summer.In the paper, PJM, which has been operating since 1927, said the market is no longer serving the economic and political realities of the U.S. electricity sector. It continued to warn that unprecedented demand from data centers is colliding with the retirement of old coal and gas-fueled generating plants, an interconnection process built for an era of slower growth, and sharply higher costs for building power plants.PJM says the market is doing what it was designed to do: responding to high demand by raising payouts to generators to increase supply. But those prices spurred politicians to negotiate auction delays and price caps, which in turn disincentivized investment in new power sources.“The result is what might be called a credibility trap,” PJM officials wrote in the paper. “High scarcity prices that are economically necessary to signal the need for investment become, in this environment, the trigger for governmental intervention that undermines the credibility of those same prices.”The PJM paper comes amid an uptick of criticism aimed at PJM, which has a governing board but whose policies are heavily influenced by its member utilities.After announcing a 5-year, nearly $80 billion capital spending plan Tuesday, the chief executive of American Electric Power, William Fehrman, said the Ohio-based utility holding company is evaluating its membership in PJM.“The current state of PJM’s performance and stakeholder approval process does not give me great confidence that these issues will be resolved anytime soon,” Fehrman said. “In fact, if something is not done now, I expect we could still be having these same conversations in 10 years.”In April, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair Laura Swett said she was “perplexed” by recent PJM decisions. She argued that the operator’s plan to extend the timeline of a one-time emergency reliability auction to marry up data centers with electricity supply underestimated the urgency of the demand crisis.“I personally am a bit perplexed,” Swett said. “We are in a make-it-or-break-it year for the market. We expect that the board and stakeholders will do the right thing on this topic.”Last week, the commission approved an extension of the capacity market price cap through auctions for the 2029 power supply.“Extending the price collar without near-term and long-term changes to both PJM’s market rules and state-level permitting and procurement rules will only make the situation in PJM more challenging,” cautioned David Rosner, FERC’s senior Democrat. “We must recognize the confluence of events that have been unfolding over the past decade and embrace an opportunity to chart a new path for the PJM region.”
Mason County, WV Data Center: 3 Bldgs, 984 NatGas, Diesel Engines -– Marcellus Drilling News -In January, MDN reported that Fidelis New Energy and 8090 Industries together had launched a new company, American Intelligence & Power Corporation (AIPCorp), to develop the Monarch Compute Campus in Mason County, West Virginia (see Huge New Data Center Coming to Mason County, WV with 2 GW Gas Power). This 2,380-acre microgrid project provides behind-the-meter power for AI and hyperscale data centers, bypassing standard grid delays. In March, AIPCorp announced it had sold itself to Nscale Global Holdings Limited, one of the fastest-growing hyperscalers in the world (see Mason County, WV Data Center Project (Gas Powered) Sold to Nscale). The new owners filed an application (on April 20, just coming to light now) for a construction permit. The application reveals some important new details about the project.
Hog Lick Pivots Away from Hydrogen, Considers WV Data Center -– Marcellus Drilling News - Three weeks ago, the Trump Department of Energy announced it is moving forward with funding for five of the original seven Biden-awarded hydrogen hub projects, spending $5 billion of the originally allotted $7 billion (see Trump DOE to Fully Fund ARCH2 and MACH2 Hydrogen Hub Projects). The preserved projects include the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2), led by West Virginia. One of the original partners, Hog Lick Aggregates LLC, was due to build a hydrogen fuel depot in Fairmont (Marion County), WV, as part of ARCH2 (see Hog Lick to Begin Work on ARCH2 Hydrogen Hub Depot). The depot would provide a “one-stop shop” for customers transitioning heavy-duty and medium-duty trucks, construction equipment, delivery vehicles, and bus fleets from diesel to hydrogen. That plan has changed. [NOTE: We have added a statement by Hog Lick below on the company’s involvement with the ARCH2 project.]
UGI Selling Property, Partnering with Prime to Build PA Data Center -– Marcellus Drilling News --UGI Corporation’s UGI Energy Services and Prime Data Centers yesterday announced a strategic partnership to develop natural gas supply infrastructure in Pennsylvania’s northern tier for a proposed gas-fired power facility serving future hyperscale data center operations. Under the deal, UGIES will sell Prime some of its property while retaining about 15 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of underground storage capacity and related oil and gas rights. Prime’s gas demand is expected to exceed 100,000 dekatherms per day (100 MMcf/d) within three to five years. A major new customer for PA Marcellus gas!
A data center drained 30M gallons of water unnoticed — until residents complained about low water pressure - The neighbors of a data center in Georgia are steaming after they discovered the facility had sucked up nearly 30 million gallons of water — without initially paying for it. Outrage started bubbling up last year when residents of an affluent subdivision named Annelise Park in Fayetteville, Georgia, noticed their water pressure was unusually low. When the county utility investigated, officials discovered two industrial-scale water hookups feeding a data center campus located 20 miles south of downtown Atlanta. One water connection had been installed without the utility’s knowledge, and the other was not linked to the company’s account and therefore wasn’t being billed. All told, the developer, Quality Technology Services, owed nearly $150,000 for using more than 29 million gallons of unaccounted-for water. That is equivalent to 44 Olympic-size swimming pools and far exceeds the peak limit agreed to during the data center planning process. The details were revealed in a May 15, 2025 letter from the Fayette County water system to Quality Technology Services, which outlined the retroactive charge of $147,474. The letter did not specify how many months the unpaid bill covered, but when asked about it Wednesday, Vanessa Tigert, the Fayette County water system director, said it was likely about four months. A QTS spokesperson said the timeframe was nine to 15 months. Once the data center was notified, it paid all retroactive charges, a QTS spokesperson said in an email, noting the unmetered water consumption occurred while the county converted its system to smart meters. The Fayette County water system confirmed the data center’s meters are now fully integrated and tracked. Tigert, the water system director, blamed the issue on a procedural mix-up. “Fayette County is a suburb, it’s mostly residential, and we don’t have much commercial meters in our system anyway,” she said. “And so we didn’t realize our connection point wasn’t working.” The incident became public last week when a county resident obtained the 2025 letter to QTS through a public records request and posted it on Facebook, prompting outrage from residents concerned about the data center’s water consumption.
National Fuel buys North East Heat & Light - For the second time in eight months, National Fuel Gas Corp. has acquired another utility. In October, the company, based in the Buffalo suburb of Williamsville, announced that it would pay $2.62 billion for Centerpoint Energy's Ohio natural gas utility.
Tenaska Floats Plan for New 1.7 GW Gas-Fired Power in Ohio -– Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, Tenaska announced plans to expand its Tri-State Energy Hub project by adding a natural gas power plant in Saline Township, Jefferson County, Ohio. The new plant will be capable of generating up to 1,700 megawatts (1.7 GW) — enough to power approximately 1.7 million homes. The expansion builds on the company’s existing carbon capture and storage (CCS) hub, for which 30 carbon dioxide injection wells have already been submitted for approval (see Tenaska Set to Dig Test Well for Carbon Capture Storage in WV). Officials estimate the CCS portion alone could deliver a $1 billion economic impact, with additional job creation, tax revenue, and landowner payments expected.
Big Green Splashes Cold Water on Largest-Ever Gas-Fired Plant in OH -– Marcellus Drilling News -- President Donald Trump’s proposal for a $33 billion, 9.2-gigawatt gas power plant in Ohio—funded by Japanese investment, including SoftBank—aims to address soaring energy demands from data centers (see Trump Announces Largest-Ever U.S. Gas-Fired Plant Coming to Ohio). As the largest gas-fired power plant in the U.S., it promises a massive surge in electricity to the PJM grid. It also promises to use enormous amounts of Marcellus/Utica molecules to feed it. Needless to say, the environmental left is doing anything and everything it can to block the project. The left’s latest attempt is to badmouth the project, claiming it’s “too big to succeed.”
Gulfport Adds Extra Year of Inventory by Drilling Horseshoe Wells - Marcellus Drilling News – (click for larger version of diagram) Gulfport Energy is the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled). Gulfport released its first quarter 2026 update yesterday. The update was overshadowed by news that the company had hired former Expand Energy CEO Nick Dell'Osso as its new CEO (see Fired Expand CEO Nick Dell’Osso Becomes CEO of Gulfport Energy). However, yesterday's quarterly update included important news, including news about Gulfport drilling its first two "horseshoe" wells.
House destroyed in gas explosion - A local couple are without a home and wondering about the welfare of their pets after a Thursday morning explosion damaged their house beyond repair. Karlee Davis and her boyfriend, Kolton Ensine, say they have support and a place to sleep, and their two dogs are safe. But their house was knocked off its foundation by a 10 a.m. natural gas explosion, and they don’t know the status of their seven cats. The house at 1018 N. State St. sits at the north corner of State Street and Gordon Street. Sources at the scene said a company was laying fiber optic lines along Gordon before the explosion. Davis, a social worker at Mercy Health’s new behavioral health center on Belmont Avenue, said she received a call at work at 10:22 a.m. from her veterinarian after one of her dogs’ electronic ID tags was scanned by Girard Fire Department. That’s when she learned there was a fire or explosion at the home, although the dogs were rescued. Davis said she felt bad for the lady who called her from the vet’s office because it must have been difficult to have to deliver that news. “Then I called someone from the fire department, and they said a gas line was hit and the side of my house exploded,” she said. “You would think I would know what to do in a situation like this but you don’t really know what to do when it happens to you.” On Thursday morning, Davis and Ensine stood with their family out front of Marco’s Pizza on State Street, a few blocks up from the house. Ensine’s grandmother was keeping their dogs at her house. At 3 p.m., Davis told The Vindicator that she was allowed closer to the house and emergency crews on scene placed a ladder up to one of the upstairs windows, and some of the cats could be heard inside the house, but would not come out. Because the home is not structurally sound, nobody can go inside. A former firefighter in northeast Trumbull County, and an insurance agent for Allstate, wrote the homeowner’s insurance policy for the house, and said she feels it’s most likely a total loss. Mike Scoville, a city employee in the Water and Wastewater Department, said the blast happened about 30 minutes after the city received the call about the gas line damage. He said he was standing at the corner with a police officer and two firefighters, waiting for Enbridge to come address the damaged gas line, when the south side of the house exploded, sending him and the other men sprawling. By 1 p.m. the Ohio State Fire Marshal was on-site and the gas to the neighborhood had been shut off to eliminate any further risk to local homes and businesses. Girard Fire Chief Jim Petruzzi verified what Scoville said, and noted that one firefighter and a Girard police officer were taken to the hospital after the blast but have since been evaluated and released. He said the house blew out from both sides and there was a considerable fire burning in the basement when first responders arrived. “There was heavy fire in the basement when we arrived, but we were able to put it out from outside,” he said. “Due to the instability of the structure, we moved to a defensive approach and did everything we could from outside the house.” Petruzzi said it seems likely that at least some of Davis and Ensine’s cats did not survive. Petruzzi said that Lumos Networks has been installing fiber optic lines in the area. “Their investigators and Enbridge’s investigators are working to pinpoint the actual cause of this. They will see if the boring happened in the correct place, and if things were parked correctly,” Petruzzi said. “Until the gas company digs up the road and sees the path that was taken, we don’t know. We cannot just point the finger at Lumos and place blame on them.” He said the fire marshal and Public Utilities Commission of Ohio will work with Enbridge and Lumos to investigate the incident.
Enbridge: Residents allowed to return home following house explosion – WFMJ Anyone who lives on Smithsonian Street is allowed to return home, but those living on Gordon are still under an evacuation order at this time. - North State Street, Gordon Street and State Street in Girard have reopened completely following a house explosion in the area Thursday morning. Police personnel with the Girard Police Department told 21 News around 9:30 p.m. that State Street has completely reopened. A home at the corner of Gordon Street blew up and caught fire just after 10 a.m. Thursday. A call log from Trumbull County Dispatch says EMS crews were called to the scene for possible traumatic injuries. Firefighters from Girard, Weathersfield Township, McDonald, Liberty Township and Hubbard all responded. First responders were going door-to-door evacuating the neighborhood. Girard Fire Chief James Petruzzi says a two-tenths-of-a-mile perimeter had been set near the scene. The homeowners were told that the evacuation order could last anywhere between an hour to 10 hours. As of 3:15 p.m., North State Street has reopened to north and southbound traffic. As of information from the Girard Police Department, Enbridge Gas has reopened Gordon Street as of 8:45 p.m. As for residents, police say that Enbridge Gas has completely lifted the evacuation order for the rest of the residents within the original evacuation area, shown below. According to a news release, all gas appliances must be turned on by Enbridge personnel. Residents are told not to attempt to restore gas services or operate these appliances by themselves. The explosion was reported less than half an hour after a crew digging in the area reported puncturing a gas line. However, Chief Petruzzi says an official cause is unconfirmed.A photo sent to 21 News by a viewer shows that part of the lower left side of the house was impacted by the explosion. No one was home at the time of the explosion, but two dogs, one of them being a service dog, were taken from the home and are now in the care of another family member.
Strs Ohio Has $1.10 Million Position in ONEOK, Inc. -Strs Ohio( State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio) trimmed its position in ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE - Free Report) by 86.3% during the fourth quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 14,969 shares of the utilities provider's stock after selling 93,974 shares during the period. Strs Ohio's holdings in ONEOK were worth $1,100,000 at the end of the most recent quarter. ONEOK, Inc is a publicly traded midstream energy company headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The company owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines, processing facilities, fractionators and storage and terminal assets. Its operations are focused on gathering, processing, transporting, fractionating and marketing NGLs and interstate natural gas, providing critical infrastructure that connects hydrocarbon production to refineries, petrochemical plants and other end markets. ONEOK's asset base includes pipeline systems and processing plants that move and condition natural gas, along with infrastructure for the transportation, storage and fractionation of NGLs such as ethane, propane and butane.
Ares Mgmt Buys Blackstone's Entire 32.4% Stake in Rover Pipeline – Marcellus Drilling News -- The Rover Pipeline is a 711-mile, $6.3 billion natural gas transmission pipeline operated by Energy Transfer, transporting up to 3.25 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of Marcellus and Utica Shale gas. It connects supply areas in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio to markets in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Canada. As of April 29, 2026, Blackstone (via its Energy Transition Partners funds) has sold its entire 32.4% ownership stake in Rover to Ares Management. Blackstone originally acquired its ownership stake in 2017 to fund the construction of the pipeline.
DT Midstream Adds M-U Pipeline Expansions, NEXUS Interconnect -– Marcellus Drilling News - DT Midstream (DTM) is an owner, operator, and developer of natural gas interstate and intrastate pipelines, storage and gathering systems, compression, treatment, and surface facilities, including major assets that are in (or flow molecules from) the Marcellus/Utica. Last week, the company issued its first quarter 2026 update. CEO David Slater announced two new projects to expand pipelines that carry Marcellus/Utica molecules. He also announced a project to build a new lateral to an Indiana power plant and a new interconnect that flows more M-U molecules into the NEXUS pipeline. Great things are happening at DTM!
TC Energy Announces $1.5B Expansion to Columbia Gas for Powergen-– Marcellus Drilling News -- Last Friday, TC Energy reported a robust first quarter in 2026, highlighted by a 14% increase in comparable EBITDA to $3.1 billion and record delivery volumes across its North American pipeline network. For the Marcellus and Utica shale region, the standout development is the newly announced $1.5 billion Appalachia Supply Project on the Columbia Gas system. Slated for 2030, this expansion will add 0.8 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity to meet surging electricity and data center demand. Appalachia is explicitly identified as a major contributor to the growth in U.S. natural gas production, and is expected to account for over 55% of the growth by 2035.
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: CNX Resources Drilling Longer Laterals | RBN Energy -Appalachian gas producer CNX Resources issued its quarterly earnings report last week. The report noted that the company had reached two operational milestones in the past quarter: drilling one lateral that reached 23,369 feet and also setting “a company daily drilling record of 9,252 feet of lateral in 24 hours.” CNX is trumpeting the increasing length of its laterals to extract more gas per well. However, in view of low current market prices, the firm is maintaining its previous target to have 1.5 rigs and a partial year frac crew to maintain production at the current level. In the earnings call, CNX acknowledged that it has been conducting more long-term hedging recently in response to changes in the futures market. CFO Everett Good said that as basis differentials have tightened, the company is able to get “a better all-in realized price in… the Cal ’28 market.” CNX’s CEO Alan Shepard noted that potential gas purchasers have recently announced “mind-boggling” projects that will create opportunities for companies that have the “resource depth and creditworthiness to enter into long-term arrangements.” However, he is “pretty agnostic” as to whether those projects will be more common in Ohio or Pennsylvania and said that this matters less to producers because they can “wheel gas around” between the two states easily. CNX believes that as a producer they can benefit from projects on either side of the border.
CNX Resources (CNX) Provides Insights on Utica Program and Financial Strategies - On April 30, 2026, CNX Resources Corp CNX held its earnings call, where CEO Alan Shepard provided insights into the company's ongoing Utica program and strategic capital allocation. During the call, it was revealed that production results are still forthcoming, with expectations aligning with reservoir performance. A comprehensive update is anticipated by late 2026 or early 2027. CFO Everett Good also reported a successful refinancing of 2029 notes into new 8-year notes at a rate of 5 and 7/8%, underscoring the company's proactive financial management.
- CNX Resources has a market capitalization of approximately $5.49 billion.
- GF Score™: 74/100, indicating a solid overall performance in key financial metrics.
- Insider activity shows a recent sell of $1.9 million worth of shares, with no insider buying reported in the last three months.
The recent earnings call highlighted CNX Resources' focus on its Utica program, which is critical for the company's growth strategy. CEO Alan Shepard's comments suggest that while production results are still pending, the company remains optimistic about aligning with reservoir performance. The strategic decision to allocate capital towards the Marcellus region reflects the company's emphasis on leveraging existing infrastructure, which is vital for operational efficiency. The anticipated update later this year or early next year could provide investors with more clarity on the company's future production capabilities. CNX Resources Corp is an independent natural gas development, production, midstream, and technology company primarily focused on the Appalachian Basin. With a market cap of $5.49 billion, the company operates mainly in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The majority of its revenue is derived from the Shale segment, making it a significant player in the oil and gas industry.
Natural Gas Producer Achieves Record Production and Free Cash Flow - A major natural gas producer achieved record-breaking operational and financial results during the first quarter of 2026, driven by the successful integration of its HG acquisition and strong uptime during winter storm Fern. As reported by Detik Finance, the company reached a production milestone of 3.9 Bcfe per day.“As highlighted on Slide 3, our team’s efforts and strong pricing helped us deliver one of the best quarterly results in company history. Also as highlighted on the slide, we closed on the HG acquisition and the Ohio Utica shale divestiture. The HG acquisition added substantial production, cash flow, and nearly 400 thousand net acres and 400 drilling locations to our core West Virginia Marcellus position." said Michael N. Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer. The company successfully lowered its breakeven costs by $0.30 per Mcfe through the acquisition and initiated production on its first HG-integrated pad. This six-well facility in a liquids-rich area features lateral lengths exceeding 18,000 feet and maintains a high net royalty interest of 89%. "Importantly, the acquisition will drive corporate cash costs down $0.30 per Mcfe, which lowers our breakeven cost and drives margin enhancement. Turning to the integration of HG, we are significantly ahead of schedule. We recently turned in line our first HG pad. This six-well pad located in the liquids-rich area has 110 thousand total lateral feet, or average lateral lengths over 18 thousand feet per well. Notably, this pad has one of the highest net royalty interests at 89%, further enhancing its rate of return. We expect the pad to produce $150 million per day and remain flat at these levels for quite some time." said Michael N. Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer. Operational synergies from the acquired assets are now projected to reach over $80 million for the full year, surpassing the initial $50 million forecast. These gains resulted from optimized drilling designs and water handling along with enhanced economies of scale."On the acquired assets, we have already achieved operating synergies of $15 million to $20 million and are now forecasting over $80 million for the full year, outpacing our initial target of $50 million. Once we closed on the acquisition and took control of operations, we found incremental cost-saving opportunities, which include drilling and completion design changes, water handling optimization, and benefits from our economies of scale that are driving faster-than-forecasted synergies. Our first quarter production was a record 3.9 Bcfe per day, 13% above the year-ago period. This production growth is expected to continue through 2026 with full-year production of 4.1 Bcfe per day, a nearly 20% increase from 2025." said Michael N. Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer. Financial performance was bolstered by the company's ability to secure pricing premiums above industry benchmarks, leading to $657 million in free cash flow. This liquidity allowed for aggressive debt reduction that exceeded initial management targets by $250 million. "Turning to the right-hand side of the slide, our quarterly financial results were highlighted by our ability to capture substantial premiums to benchmark prices. These high premiums, combined with our operational performance, generated free cash flow of $657 million, the second-highest level in our company history. We used this free cash flow to accelerate debt reduction following the HG acquisition. At the time of the acquisition announcement, we had targeted free cash flow available to fund the acquisition from December through the end of the first quarter to be approximately $500 million. We exceeded this target by $250 million." said Michael N. Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer. (NB: AI written article neglects to mention Antero, the company’s name)
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: EOG Shifts Towards Permian and Utica and Away from Dorado Dry-Gas | RBN Energy -EOG in their Q1 2026 earnings call kept its 2026 capital budget flat at $6.5 billion but raised oil guidance by 2 Mb/d and NGL guidance by 6 Mb/d by shifting some capital out of Dorado, its South Texas dry-gas play, and into oil-weighted assets in the Permian and Utica. CEO Ezra Yacob framed the move as a straightforward response to commodity signals, saying EOG is “reallocating some of the activity in Dorado to some of our more oil-weighted assets,” partly because “there’s a call across the world right now for increased oil supply.” Management stressed that Dorado remains a core long-term gas asset, but near-term drilling activity is being moderated while gas prices are soft.EOG plans to reduce Dorado’s production from about 1 Bcf/d to just over 800 MMcf/d, while reallocating capital to add five net completions in the Delaware Basin and 10 net completions in the Utica. The Utica in particular is benefiting from strong drilling gains, including a 22% improvement in drilled feet per day versus the 2025 average, while EOG continues to push longer laterals 2-3 miles in the Delaware and 3-4 miles in the Utica and Eagle Ford. Management also highlighted that their Janus gas processing plant in the Delaware, constructed late 2025 reached full utilization in March, helping reduce gathering, processing and transportation costs. On costs, EOG said its 2026 plan works with a breakeven oil price below $50/bbl WTI and their Dorado play remains competitive even with less near-term activity: Yacob said EOG wants to drive well costs in the play lower, with a target “below $700 per foot,” and cited “a low breakeven price of about $1.40 per Mcf.”
19 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 27 – May 3 -– Marcellus Drilling News - The Marcellus/Utica region received 19 new drilling permits last week, Apr. 27 – May 3, up from the 12 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 5 of last week’s permits. Ohio issued the lion’s share, with 13 new permits (four of which were from two weeks ago). West Virginia issued just 1 new permit last week. The drillers who received new permits included: Ascent Resources, Campbell Oil & Gas, CNX Resources, EOG Resources, Gulfport Energy, and Range Resources. Ascent Resources | Beaver County | Belmont County | Campbell Oil & Gas | Carroll County | CNX Resources | EOG Resources | Gulfport Energy | Monongalia County | Range Resources Corp | Washington County | Westmoreland County
Sen. McCormick Defends Homer City Power Plant Against “Uniformed” --U.S. Senator Dave McCormick recently visited the $10 billion Homer City Redevelopment project in Indiana County, Pennsylvania, where a new natural gas power plant and hyperscale data center are replacing a former coal facility. McCormick compared current environmental protests against data centers to early opposition to Marcellus Shale fracking, arguing both face “uninformed” anxiety despite offering massive economic and job benefits. Gee, where else have you heard the comparison between anti-fracking and anti-data center? MDN was perhaps the first to identify the trend, first tipping you back in July 2025 that the Democrat anti-fracking movement in Pennsylvania (and beyond) was rapidly becoming anti-data center (see PA Antis Hate Fossil Fuels, Shale Drilling, and Now…Data Centers).
Williams Announces New Gas-Fired Plant, Pipes for M-U Data Centers - Pipeline giant Williams issued its first quarter 2026 update yesterday, and there is plenty of news to report. Williams’ still relatively new CEO, Chad Zamarin, began his prepared remarks with a bang. He announced three brand new projects, two of which are located in the Marcellus/Utica. He also announced an upsizing of an existing Transco project to deliver more natural gas to Virginia. All of the projects Zamarin discussed are tied to the AI data center sector. Zamarin also addressed the Constitution Pipeline in New York State. You don’t want to miss what he said about the politics in NY (chuckle)
Obscure NJ State Agency Grants Approval for Williams NESE Pipe -– Marcellus Drilling News - In April, MDN reported that anti-fossil fuel fanatics had not yet given up on trying to block construction of the Williams Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline, a $1 billion+ project designed to increase Transco pipeline capacity and flows of Marcellus gas heading into New York City and other northeastern markets. Even though there was an official groundbreaking ceremony at Brooklyn’s Floyd Bennett Field in New York City in April, antis are still doing their best to block this project. They pinned one of their last hopes on a relatively obscure state agency in New Jersey, pressuring it to refuse to issue a license for the project (see Antis Hold Out Hope to Block NESE Pipe Via Obscure NJ State Agency). Bad news for antis: the agency just voted to *approve* the project.
New York's energy comes at a cost. Pennsylvania is paying it. - When New Yorkers turn on the heat or cook dinner, the gas powering those actions very likely came from beneath the hills and farms of Pennsylvania. The Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, the second most productive natural gas fields in the nation, lie under Pennsylvania communities whose residents breathe the air around compressor stations, whose children are 5 to 7 times more likely to develop lymphoma, and whose physicians are treating elevated rates of respiratory illness, cardiovascular disease, preterm birth and childhood asthma tied to fossil fuel infrastructure. New York consumes the energy. Pennsylvania absorbs the harm. Last December, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the Climate Change Superfund Act into law — a landmark measure that holds major fossil fuel companies financially liable for greenhouse gas emissions connected to fuel produced or transported into New York. The law demands $75 billion from the industry to fund climate adaptation and establishes a principle long overdue in American energy policy: Those who profit most from fossil fuel emissions should bear the costs of the harm they cause. If fossil fuel companies face reduced financial liability for their emissions in New York, the economic incentive to increase production rises. That increased production will come primarily from Pennsylvania. More drilling. More compressor stations. More pipeline infrastructure. More emissions. And more illness among people who had no voice in New York’s deliberations. Weakening the Superfund Act is a choice to shift costs from fossil fuel corporations onto the lives of Pennsylvania residents. Here in Pennsylvania, our physicians treat these patients and see the connection between fossil fuel infrastructure and illness in clinical practice, not just in research papers. These are not hypotheticals; they are people in our communities who have had to accept a poisonous bargain from an industry that primarily serves markets elsewhere. They have not shared in the economic benefits of that industry. They have absorbed its health consequences. Consumers and fossil fuel companies operating in New York’s market have benefited from Pennsylvania’s resources for decades. The Climate Change Superfund Act begins to account for that. It asks the companies that extracted profit from these communities, and from the atmosphere, to contribute to repairing the damage. Stepping away from the legislation does not make the damage disappear; it simply means continued harm for the people least responsible for the damage. We urge Gov. Hochul to keep the Superfund Act intact, to say publicly that weakening it will harm Pennsylvanians and to move quickly toward full implementation. Setting bold climate goals is the easy part. Owning the full footprint of where your energy comes from is harder. The people of Pennsylvania are part of that footprint, and their health deserves to be part of New York’s calculation.
Landowners File Suit Against New York Fracking Ban - The Institute for Energy Research --E&E News reports that a father and son who own the mineral rights to 164 acres of land in upstate New York are suing the state in federal court to challenge the state’s ban on fracking. According to the lawsuit, NY’s ban on fracking is unconstitutional under the Fifth Amendment because it deprives the landowners of productive use of their property, amounting to an unfair taking by the government. Their case is being handled by the Pacific Legal Foundation, which supports private property rights. The state’s bans on high-volume hydraulic fracturing, carbon dioxide fracturing, and propane gel fracturing, which effectively prohibit all development of the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, amount to an impermissible government taking, according to the suit. These formations extend across the border into Pennsylvania, where they have been developed safely and extensively for over fifteen years. The plaintiffs are asking the court to block the state from enforcing the ban.According to the complaint, the lawsuit is relevant to issues of energy independence and affordability. While banning hydraulic fracturing, New York State imports nearly 85% of its energy, with much of it in the form of natural gas coming from fracked basins in Pennsylvania. New York consumers pay high prices as the state’s residential electricity costs average between 24 and 27 cents per kilowatt-hour — approximately 40% above the national average — and natural gas prices run about 22.8% above the national average.In 2011, Madison Woodward III, a geologist, and his son Thomas purchased land in Delaware County that was on a rich natural gas reserve with the expectation that they would be allowed to develop the natural gas resources beneath their property. Three years later, on December 17, 2014, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo determined that there were too many unanswered questions regarding fracking to move forward with the technology, despite the fact that economically depressed areas of Upstate New York would have reaped benefits enjoyed by Pennsylvania landowners next door. He issued an executive order banning fracking. In 2020, the New York State legislature codified the ban in statute and imposed an indefinite moratorium on propane gel fracturing, followed by a 2024 ban on carbon dioxide-based fracturing.According to the Pacific Legal Foundation, propane gel fracking is different from hydraulic fracturing in that the process uses gelled propane that can be recovered and reused instead of using millions of gallons of water and sand. The propane returns to a gaseous state after extraction, leaving no wastewater needing to be disposed of. The technology is available, and operators are ready to use it.With the legislature’s ruling after the Woodwards purchased the property, they lost the ability to use the mineral rights they had purchased. Mineral rights are the legal ownership of the natural resources beneath land. The Woodwards sold the surface rights to the land in 2019, but had held onto the mineral rights, hoping that technology would eventually allow the natural gas to be developed. But New York banned all forms of technology that would allow that development.The basis of the lawsuit is that while New York has the right to set energy policy, the financial cost of that policy should not fall on the shoulders of people who invested in good faith under the laws in effect at the time of purchase. The landowner or mineral rights owner should not have to pay for the decision made by the state.
U.S. Propane Inventories Decline Against Seasonal Expectations | RBN Energy --The EIA reported an unusual 1.3 MMbbl draw in U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended May 1, compared with industry expectations for a 565 Mbbl build and the average build for the week of 1.5 MMbbl. It was the first draw reported for the corresponding week since recordkeeping began in 2011 and marked the second consecutive week of off-season withdrawals, suggesting the propane market may be tightening more quickly than expected heading into summer. Despite the recent draws, total U.S. propane/propylene inventories remain historically elevated at 77.6 MMbbl, or 61% above year-ago levels, 26% above the 5-year maximum, and 52% above the 5-year average. Total U.S. propane/propylene production decreased by about 35 Mb/d to 2.94 MMb/d, while product supplied rose by about 180 Mb/d to 1.17 MMb/d. Lower production and higher product supplied supported the counterseasonal inventory draw.
Enbridge Plans New 28-Mile Gas Pipe in Chatham & Lee Counties in NC -– Marcellus Drilling News -- Enbridge Gas is developing a 28? mile natural gas pipeline to meet growing residential, commercial, and industrial energy needs in Chatham and Lee counties in North Carolina. The project, intended to connect Siler City to Moncure, is part of a larger state natural gas infrastructure buildout that Duke Energy says is crucial to meeting demand, especially from new data centers. With strong economic and population growth in the region, additional natural gas capacity is essential to support expanding communities and major industrial users, as well as to help ensure continued, reliable service for existing Enbridge Gas customers. This greenfield project is, of course, stirring up environmentalists who claim it will harm the environment (as well as cause mythical global warming).
Work to Expand Elba Island LNG Exports by Extra 0.4 MMTY Progresses -– Marcellus Drilling News - Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG, which accepts and liquefies Marcellus/Utica molecules just offshore from Savannah, Georgia, received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in November 2024 to expand the facility to produce an extra 0.4 million metric tons/year (see FERC Approves 0.4 MMTY Expansion for Elba Island LNG). After Donald Trump regained the White House, many of the roadblocks to expanding Elba (and other LNG projects) were cleared. Elba has been hard at work on the upgrades since then, with some already online and others soon to be.
Elba Island LNG Commissioning Milestone Adds to US Export Capacity Outlook -Federal regulators have authorized Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) Elba Island LNG terminal to introduce hazardous fluids into another liquefaction module, marking a step forward for the facility’s optimization project.Line chart showing NGI’s Transco Zone 5 South daily natural gas price movements from May 2025 through May 2026 in $US/MMBtu. The graph highlights relatively stable gas prices through most of 2025 before an extreme price spike above $130/MMBtu in early February 2026, followed by sharp volatility and a return to lower pricing levels across the Southeast U.S. natural gas market. At a Glance:
Forward curve signals tighter winter
Southeast cash prices soften further
Feed gas ramp remains visibly muted
U.S. LNG Feedgas Drops Dramatically During Spring Maintenance Season | RBN Energy -U.S. LNG feedgas demand fell sharply last week with lower intake at Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Calcasieu Pass driving the decline. Feedgas averaged about 18.5 Bcf/d last week (blue-dotted line below), down 0.9 Bcf/d week-on-week as intake at Cameron dropped on April 30 and has remained at around 1.5 Bcf/d since then, consistent with two of the terminal's three trains being online. Maintenance in late spring is typical for Cameron, and the pattern suggests one train is likely offline. Past terminal turnarounds have generally run for around three weeks, so reduced intake could last through much of May. The terminal’s header pipeline, Cameron Interstate, is also conducting maintenance and will continue to do so throughout the month. Corpus Christi reduced its intake last week as maintenance on Corpus Christi Pipeline constrained flows to the terminal. That work has wrapped up, so feedgas there should rebound this week. Calcasieu Pass intake also pulled back, slipping from recent peak levels down toward contracted utilization. With spring maintenance season in full swing, U.S. LNG output is likely to remain relatively soft in the near term, before growth resumes later this year.
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Comstock Q1 Production Down 15% vs. Year Ago, Maintains CY 2026 Guidance | RBN Energy - On its Q1 2026 earnings call held May 6, Comstock Resources reported first-quarter production averaged 1,088 MMcfe/d, down 15% vs. Q1 2025, attributing the decline to significant winter weather that forced shut-ins and pushed most of the quarter's well turn-in-line (TIL) activity into the closing weeks of the quarter. However, Comstock held full-year 2026 production guidance at 1,250–1,400 MMcfe/d. CEO Jay Allison guided 2Q 2026 production up 13–15% sequentially vs Q1, with stronger growth expected in the back half as the late-March completions ramp up and a fourth frac fleet comes online in May. The company plans to maintain its current nine rig drilling program through the end of the year.The Western Haynesville remains the centerpiece of Comstock's long-term growth strategy, with management citing the play's higher thickness, higher pressures, and significantly greater resource potential per section vs. the legacy Haynesville. Reductions in Western Haynesville Drilling and Completion (D&C) costs were identified as key 2026 priorities, and Comstock is still in the early stages of optimizing their drilling techniques there (see well performance comparison below). To that end, the company mentioned several initiatives intended to reduce D&C costs this year, including rolling out a larger diameter lateral design, upgrading one of their Western Haynesville rigs to a 10,000-psi pressure rating by late summer, field testing higher-temperature-rated drilling motors later in 2026, and eventually deploying rotary steerable drilling systems already being tested in the legacy Haynesville. The Western Haynesville footprint was selected in March 2026 by the U.S. Department of Commerce to host a new 5.2 GW natural gas-fired power generation hub in Anderson County, Texas. The $16 billion project, part of Japan's $550 billion U.S. investment commitment under the U.S.-Japan trade deal, will be jointly owned by Japan and the U.S., built and operated by NextEra Energy Resources, and supplied by Comstock, with gas demand for the facility potentially approaching 1 Bcf/d by 2031. Management declined to comment on commercial gas-supply terms, but the project represents a meaningful in-basin demand anchor for Western Haynesville development.
Proposed ST LNG Project Moves Forward With Draft EIS -- The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) has issued a draft environmental impact statement (EIS) for what could be one of the first US offshore LNG facility, ST LNG, sited more than 10 miles off the coast in East Matagorda Bay. At a Glance:
- Project targets 2029 first production
- Transco-linked feed gas supply outlined
- Offshore LNG remains untested domestically
Delfin LNG Gains More Momentum With Another SPA on Path Toward FID - Global commodities trader Gunvor Group said Wednesday it would purchase more LNG from the Delfin floating liquefaction project being developed 40 miles offshore Louisiana. Map of the proposed Delfin LNG offshore export project in the Gulf of America, including floating LNG vessel locations and pipeline infrastructure connecting onshore supply to offshore liquefaction facilities. At a Glance:
Deal follows another signed in 2023
Delfin has deals to sell over 4 Mt/y
FID thought to be close
Chevron LNG Output at Full Capacity as Natural Gas Demand Builds in Tight Global Market --At Chevron, “all the big pistons in the engine are firing,” and momentum is building in the second quarter as the supermajor provides steady natural gas and oil supply to tight global markets, the company’s top executive said. Map of Australia LNG liquefaction facilities showing major export projects including Gorgon, Wheatstone, Pluto, North West Shelf, Ichthys, Darwin, Gladstone, Queensland Curtis, highlighting global LNG supply hubs, Asia-Pacific gas exports, energy infrastructure.At a Glance:
LNG assets running at full rates
Sold first US LNG spot cargo to Europe
Eastern Med output gains momentum
Train 6 Feed Gas Approval Marks Latest Step in Cheniere Stage 3 Ramp-Up - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers:
- 210 MMcf/d: Federal regulators gave Cheniere the greenlight to introduce feed gas to the cold-end of Train 6, raising the possibility of more demand from the company’s Stage 3 expansion project in the coming weeks. The approval is an indicator of late-stage commissioning and typically occurs weeks to a few months before first LNG. Each train can add up to 210 MMcf/d in feed gas demand from West Texas hubs at peak capacity. Bechtel has delivered trains for Stage 3 to Cheniere for production roughly 2-3 months after commissioning begins.
- 2.41 Mt: US LNG export volumes are set to be muted at the beginning of May before rising on Asian demand in the weeks ahead. Week/week sendout from US terminals have dipped since late April, dropping down to 2.41 million tons (Mt) for the week of May 4, according to Kpler predictive data. Cooling demand in Asia could break the pattern as export volumes are set to jump to 2.77 Mt the week beginning May 11, according to Kpler. The majority of the week/week gain is expected to be driven by Japan and South Korea.
- 17.6 Bcf/d: Daily LNG feed gas demand has dipped over the past two weeks, nearing the lowest point since Winter Storm Fern in January. Nominations to terminals have slipped from 18.46 Bcf/d at the beginning of last week to 17.6 Bcf/d Wednesday, according to Wood Mackenzie data. The drop in nominations has been led by lower flows to Cameron LNG in Louisiana and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi facility. Nominations are still around 2 Bcf/d above levels during the same period last year.
- 34.1%: European Union natural gas storage levels have begun to rise after ending the heating season at the lowest levels in five years. EU storage inventories rose from 32% at the end of April to 34% Monday as steady US LNG volumes and mild weather continue to influence supply dynamics. However, analysts have warned the continent could see price volatility as it competes with Asia for spot volumes during the filling season. Japan is set to import an additional 10-11 cargoes over last month as storage inventories in the country wane to a two-month low.
Golden Pass LNG Feed Gas Climbs as Second Cargo Prepares to Leave Texas -- Golden Pass LNG is loading its second export cargo as feed gas demand continues climbing during the Texas terminal’s commissioning. At a Glance:
- Feed gas nominations hit new high
- Commissioning ramp continues at Train 1
- Global LNG supply tightness persists
Rio Grande LNG Timeline Slipping as NextDecade Requests FERC Deadline Extension - NextDecade has asked federal regulators for more time to finish building its Rio Grande LNG export terminal in South Texas and bring it online, saying previous legal and regulatory delays won’t allow it to meet the current deadline under an extension it received in 2022.North America LNG export capacity chart showing operational and sanctioned projects from 2016 to 2033, with capacity rising above 35 Bcf/d, including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Port Arthur, Rio Grande LNG, highlighting U.S. LNG growth, global gas supply trends. At a Glance:
Train 1 to be completed 1Q2027
All five trains under construction
$10.5 billion invested to date
NextDecade Eyes 2027 FID for Rio Grande Train 6 as Iran War Lifts LNG Demand - NextDecade is looking to capitalize on contracting momentum from the conflict in Iran to sanction Train 6 at Rio Grande LNG next year as demand for long-term US LNG supply strengthens. At a Glance:
- Train 6 demand exceeds capacity
- FERC filing expected this quarter
- Federal policy may accelerate permitting
US natgas futures gain 3% to three-week high as output dips, oil prices surge (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a fresh three-week high on Monday on a drop in output over the past month and as the gas market followed a sharp 6% rise in oil prices after Iran stepped up attacks in the Middle East Gulf. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.7 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $2.867 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 7 for a third day in a row. That also put the front-month up for a sixth day in a row for the first time since mid-April. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 61 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 70 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.20 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021 to 2025). Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7% above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8% above during the week ended April 24. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 19. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold near 99.3 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 17.4 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
US natgas futures fall 3% as demand outlook weakens and LNG feedgas drops (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday on lowered demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants expected to drop during the usual spring maintenance season. After rising for six days in a row, front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.9 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.788 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since April 7 for a third day in a row. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 62 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Output has declined over the past couple of months due in part to low spot prices, which prompted energy firms like EQT , the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production as they wait for prices to rise later in the year. Analysts said mostly mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual. They noted, however, that recent output declines coupled with cooler weather and higher demand likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 7% above normal during the week ended May 1, down from 8% above during the week ended April 24. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 20 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand for the first time this year. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold near 97.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 17.3 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The Big Picture – The Coming Battle for Gas Between LNG Exports and Southeast Generation | RBN Energy -- Natural gas demand is building fast along the Gulf Coast. New LNG export terminals in Texas and Louisiana. New data centers, new industrial facilities and new power generation as far east as Florida. And new gas pipelines and pipeline expansion projects to help deliver the incremental gas that will be required. That’s all baked in. What’s still far from certain is where all the needed gas will come from, and how intense the battle for gas supply will become by the early 2030s. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the second in a series, early indications are that it will be a battle royale.In Part 1, we said that while we’ve blogged about rising demand for gas in the southeastern U.S. and the pipeline projects being planned to deliver more gas to the region, there’s more to the story. That “bigger picture” is that gas consumers in the Southeast — a region that, for our purposes here, includes Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina — increasingly find themselves competing for supply with LNG exporters in Louisiana as well as power generators and other gas consumers north of them in Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia. We noted that gas-demand growth in the southeastern U.S. has been coming on fast and furious over the past few years, constraining the legacy gas pipeline networks there and resulting in the SONAT (Southern Natural Gas), Florida Zone 3 and Transco Zone 4 price trading points being among the very few locations where gas is priced at a premium to Henry Hub for most of the year. And we discussed the pipeline systems that deliver gas to the region (solid lines in Figure 1 below), the new pipelines and expansion projects being planned to increase flows (dashed lines), and the long list of gas-fired power plants being built.
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Cheniere Continues Corpus Christi Expansion | RBN Energy -On Thursday Cheniere held its first quarterly earnings call since the war with Iran began. As the war has restricted the amount of LNG from Qatar that is able to reach the global market, it has made Cheniere’s LNG export facilities in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi more profitable. As the firm noted in the graph below, futures for global benchmarks for natural gas have risen tremendously since the conflict began in late February, while Henry Hub futures have scarcely budged. The JKM forward curve for the remainder of 2026 is more than $4.00/MMBtu higher than it was in late February, represented by the leftmost black bar in the chart. The yellow bar representing TTF change and the light-blue bar showing Brent change are also large, showing a major increase in those prices. Meanwhile, the dark blue bar representing Henry Hub futures is only slightly higher for 2026 and almost completely flat for the following years, showing little impact from the start of the war. Cheniere gave an update on the Corpus Christi Stage III plan, saying that it expects to reach first LNG at Train 6 in Corpus Christi in the next few days. Substantial completion of Train 5 was already reached in March, and Train 7 should be substantially complete by the end of this year. CEO Jack Fusco said that not only are these facilities coming online ahead of schedule, but that the “ramp-up has been higher and steadier.” The firm also commented on its project to build midscale Trains 8 and 9 which includes debottlenecking of last-mile pipelines that would supply the facilities. That project is currently ahead of schedule, with 37% currently completed.Discussing future projects, CFO Zach Davis said that Cheniere plans to reach FID on Train 7 of Sabine Pass early next year, noting that the company has 10 mtpa of Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) that “have not been used to underpin or underwrite an FID project.” After that reaches FID, Jack Fusco stated that future Cheniere expansions would most likely be in Corpus Christi. The company owns “another 500 acres of basically untouched land” that has access to water and power. In contrast, the firm’s excess Sabine property is in wetlands and would require mitigation in order to use commercially.
Cheniere ‘Astounded’ by LNG Prices, Expects ‘Aggressive’ Competition for Cargoes -- Cheniere Energy’s management team expects the Iran war to again boost contracting for American LNG as more buyers search for reliable supplies to fill a gap left by damaged infrastructure in the Middle East. At a Glance:
- Company sees tight 2026, 2027 market
- Lifts LNG production guidance
- Nearing FID on Sabine Pass expansion
Why Hasn’t Hormuz Closure Spiked US Natural Gas Prices? EQT’s Rice Has an Answer -- EQT CEO Toby Rice is making the case that growing US LNG exports would not pull domestic natural gas prices into the orbit of global volatility, pointing to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a real-time test of the thesis. Chart showing NYMEX, TTF, JKM natural gas futures prices from 2019–2026, highlighting spikes during COVID supply shocks, Russia-Ukraine war, Iran conflict, with international prices exceeding $70/MMBtu while U.S. prices remained lower. At a Glance:
Henry Hub lower after Hormuz closure
European, Asia prices up 50% by comparison
US has 60 Bcf/d natural gas supply upside
How’s It Going to Be – How a Prolonged Conflict with Iran Could Disrupt U.S. Gasoline, Jet and Diesel Markets | RBN Energy -The U.S. is seeing softer domestic demand for traditional fuels as efficiency improves and biofuels gain ground, but pockets of the country remain highly dependent on imported gasoline and jet fuel. If the Iran war drags on for an extended period, the key question becomes how much of each region’s gasoline, jet fuel and diesel demand can be covered by U.S. refineries and how much each still needs from international suppliers. Some parts of the country could face real product challenges if the disruption is prolonged. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll zero in on which PADDs are at the highest risk for shortages and price spikes.As we’ve addressed in the RBN blogosphere, the war against Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have seriously impacted the flows of refined products and LPG that underpin the Pacific Basin fuel market. With the strait effectively blocked to virtually all shipping for the last several weeks (see Eyes of the Ranger), large volumes of crude oil, LPG, naphtha and refined products bound for Asia were suddenly stranded, forcing refiners in South Korea and elsewhere to cut runs and curb gasoline and jet fuel exports (see Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad). As of May 4, the situation remains volatile and peace talks are uncertain.In today’s blog, we use our Future of Fuels analysis to estimate how much gasoline, diesel and jet fuel demand is met by each PADD’s production compared to how much it relies on imports. From this, we identify which regions are most exposed if hostilities drag on for additional months or into this winter. The biggest refined product risk from a prolonged conflict is gasoline and jet fuel in PADD 5 (gray section in Figure 1 below). The West Coast market is structurally tight and increasingly dependent on imports under normal circumstances, making it especially vulnerable to supply disruptions (see I Need More).In 2025, PADD 5 produced about 429 Mb/d of jet fuel and relied on roughly 86 Mb/d of imports to meet a demand of 505 Mb/d. Output is expected to fall toward 400 Mb/d in 2026 due to recent refinery closures, lifting import needs to around 120 Mb/d. Gasoline shows a similar trend: Production declined from about 1.16 MMb/d in 2023 to around 1.06 MMb/d in 2025, while imports more than doubled to roughly 117 Mb/d, with further increases likely as local output continues to fall. In all, PADD 5 is expected to see the steepest refinery capacity decline in the country, down about 1 MMb/d from 2025-40, which should increase the West Coast’s dependence on imported refined products as local supply tightens. With jet fuel prices now roughly double pre-war levels, PADD 5 faces an elevated risk of price spikes if the conflict persists. This vulnerability reflects a structural shift. Refining capacity on the West Coast has declined faster than demand, pushing the region to rely more heavily on imported gasoline and jet fuel, primarily from Asia. Recent refinery closures have reinforced this trend. Phillips 66 shut its Los Angeles-area site, the Carson/Wilmington refinery, in November 2025, and Valero Energy idled its 150-Mb/d Benicia refinery in the Bay Area in February 2026. Combined with earlier conversions to renewable fuels, California has lost roughly 575 Mb/d of conventional refining capacity since 2020, structurally increasing its import dependence.Total imports of transportation fuels into PADD 5 climbed to more than 300 Mb/d in October and November (right end of black line in Figure 2 below), coinciding with the P66 Los Angeles refinery closure. Most of the growth was in gasoline and jet fuel. The import surge also aligned with ongoing disruptions at other California refineries, especially PBF Energy’s Martinez plant in the Bay Area, which was fully shut after a February 2025 fire at its cat feed (VGO) hydrotreater and has been running at only 85-105 Mb/d since early Q2 2025 (compared with its nameplate capacity of about 157 Mb/d). That refinery is only now returning to full rates. As refinery runs gradually recovered from fall maintenance and Martinez edged toward full operation, imports pulled back in December and January but remained ahead of year-ago rates.Imports have surged since the start of the war. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, the four-week trailing average of PADD 5 petroleum product imports has surged by roughly 170 Mb/d year-on-year as of mid-April, now topping 500 Mb/d (red line in Figure 2). With California increasingly reliant on imports to balance demand, tightening regional supplies have also contributed to greater price volatility.Most of PADD 5’s transportation fuel imports come from East Asia, with South Korean refiners the largest contributors. Canada provides a smaller but meaningful share, while Africa, Latin America, Europe, Central Asia and the Mideast are occasional contributors. That means the West Coast is increasingly dependent on long‑haul waterborne barrels from Asian refining hubs such as South Korea, Japan, China and Singapore, which do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz on their way to North America. But the Middle East likely supplies more than half of East Asian refinery feedstocks, so uncertainty around the strait can still tighten Asian product balances.PADD 1 (East Coast; blue area in Figure 1 above) remains structurally short of gasoline and could be vulnerable if the Iran conflict drags on, as the region is reliant on imports to balance its market. In 2025, East Coast refineries produced about 405 Mb/d of gasoline, while regional demand reached roughly 2.8 MMb/d, leaving a large gap that had to be filled by inflows. A little over 2 MMb/d of that supply came in via the Colonial and Products (SE) pipelines from PADD 3 (Gulf Coast; red section in Figure 1), but PADD 1 still required about 460 Mb/d of imports to meet demand, more than double the volume it needed a decade earlier. If a prolonged conflict in Iran disrupts global product flows or raises competition for Atlantic Basin barrels, PADD 1’s heavy dependence on imports could put the region at a heightened risk of product shortages and price spikes.PADD 1 product imports are down, running roughly 400-500 Mb/d below recent years on a four‑week average basis (red line in Figure 2 below) because East Coast gasoline demand is being met more by domestic Gulf Coast barrels and inventory drawdowns than by seaborne imports. East Coast gasoline storage appears to be sitting materially above year‑ago levels, and higher pump prices look to have tempered the usual spring pickup in demand, reducing the call on imports. At the same time, the Trump administration’s 60‑day Jones Act waiver has made it easier to move incremental barrels from PADD 3 to PADD 1 on foreign‑flagged tankers. (The administration extended the waiver for an additional 90 days on April 28, effective May 18.) So far, Gulf Coast refiners are backfilling East Coast needs that would historically have been met by European gasoline cargoes. There are several reasons PADD 1 is short on gasoline. The region is highly dependent on just a couple of pipelines from the Gulf Coast and, to a lesser extent, pipeline movements from the Midcontinent and foreign waterborne imports. It also tends to run low inventories, leaving it more exposed when global refining margins or weather turn against it. Several PADD 1 refiners have shut or scaled back output, including major capacity losses in the Philadelphia area, and they now supply only a small share of the region’s fuel. Northern PADD 1 (New England and parts of the Central Atlantic) brings in a lot of product from Canada (especially from Irving Oil’s St. John, New Brunswick, refinery) and Europe.PADD 1’s diesel situation looks manageable for now but could deteriorate quickly if the conflict lasts into winter. PADD 1 produced about 225 Mb/d of diesel in 2025 and relied on roughly 125 Mb/d of imports, with total diesel demand near 1.2 MMb/d. That leaves the region heavily dependent on inflows from other U.S. regions, primarily PADD 3 and, increasingly, PADD 2 (Midwest; green section in Figure 1). Even with growing PADD 2 pipeline access, PADD 1 remains structurally short of diesel and highly exposed to external shocks (see A Little Bit More). In summer, diesel demand is somewhat tight, but the real risk is the winter months. PADD 1’s winter diesel/distillate needs, especially for heating, push the system much closer to the edge, so if the conflict extends into the November-February period, the risk of a diesel shortage rises substantially. Over the past few years, PADD 1 diesel imports have regularly spiked to above 200 Mb/d in the winter months, while averaging around 100 Mb/d through the rest of the year.The regions in the middle of the country, PADD 2, PADD 3 and PADD 4 (Rockies; yellow section in Figure 1), are in a very different position. Overall, they are not dependent on product imports for gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, so they shouldn’t be significantly impacted even if the conflict lasts a long time. PADDs 2 and 4 lean heavily on Canadian crude, while PADD 3 has access to a wide slate of crude from Canada, Mexico and Latin America. Together, the three form a large, integrated refining and pipeline system that is structurally long in products, with PADD 3 a major exporter. In addition, these three PADDs, combined, were importing less than 1 MMb/d of crude oil via waterborne routes prior to the start of the conflict compared with typical refinery runs of nearly 15 MMb/d. Further, most PADD 3 refineries have access to crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to help offset any lost waterborne crude oil imports. (The U.S. is releasing 172 MMbbl of crude oil in a bid to limit price increases; see Big Time.)The Gulf Coast and Midcontinent are long on products and resilient, but the coasts — especially PADD 5 and, to a lesser extent, PADD 1 — are increasingly exposed to global dislocations. As long as West Coast refining capacity continues to shrink and East Coast demand outpaces local supply, import dependence will remain a structural vulnerability. If the Iran conflict lingers and tightens global product balances, those weak spots could quickly translate into higher prices — and, in a worst case, localized supply crunches that ripple across already stretched regional markets.
Maryland Dems probe Air Force on jet fuel leak - Maryland Democrats are seeking answers from the Trump administration on a jet fuel leak at Joint Base Andrews that has polluted soil and a Potomac River tributary just outside Washington. In a letter Wednesday to Air Force Secretary Troy Meink, both of Maryland’s senators and seven House members questioned the department’s response to the release of over 32,000 gallons of jet fuel at the base, roughly two-thirds of which reached Piscataway Creek. The incident began in January, but the Air Force did not notify the state until April 8, according to Maryland environmental regulators. “Legacy pollution from Joint Base Andrews has already resulted in PFAS contamination in Piscataway Creek and the surrounding area, and this fuel spill adds to existing environmental stressors affecting the watershed,” the letter said. “The release has the potential to cause further ecological harm to the Piscataway Creek, which flows into the Potomac River, a key Chesapeake Bay tributary.”
Permian to US Gulf Coast crude pipeline operational after oil spill - A pipeline that ships crude oil between the Permian basin in West Texas and Houston was fully operational on Thursday after a brief outage due to a leak, operator ONEOK said. Traders had received a shipping notice from ONEOK on Wednesday, seen by Reuters, noting that an incident affecting the BridgeTex pipeline could result in temporary delays or interruptions to scheduled receipts and deliveries. The outage comes as flows from the Permian, the top shale basin, to Gulf Coast pipelines have climbed amid record export demand due to the Iran war. “The line has been secured and is back in operation. The product is currently contained, and reclamation efforts are ongoing,” a ONEOK spokesperson said.29dk2902l ONEOK owns about 60% of the about 400-mile Bridgetex crude oil pipeline with a transport capacity of up to 440,000 barrels per day. Plains All American owns the remaining 40%.
Take the Money and Run? – E&Ps Face a New Capital Allocation Cycle … Will Debt Reduction Stay Front and Center? | RBN Energy -After several years of aggressive balance-sheet repair, U.S. E&Ps are entering a new phase — one defined not by constraint, but by opportunity. A surge in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and a sharp rise in natural gas prices driven by an unusually cold winter have combined to generate a fresh wave of excess cash flow across the sector. Oil markets have been pushed higher by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, while natural gas prices have strengthened on weather-driven demand, reinforcing a powerful near-term earnings tailwind. The question posed in today’s RBN blog is a familiar one: What will companies do with these additional cash flows?The 35 E&Ps that we monitor held total debt essentially flat at just under $150 billion (blue bars and left axis in Figure 1 below) in 2025, while their collective debt-to-capital ratio (orange line and right axis) declined by 1 percentage point to 24%. Debt trended steadily lower from its 2019 peak through 2022 as companies shifted toward a cash-return model that prioritized free cash flow over reinvestment, enabling meaningful debt reduction alongside increased dividends and share repurchases. Debt moved sharply higher in 2024, driven by a surge in M&A activity (see Try Some, Buy Some), with our universe of E&Ps completing nearly $120 billion of asset and corporate transactions. Despite the increase in total debt, the debt-to-capital ratio remained stable, as companies funded acquisitions with a mix of debt and equity to preserve target leverage levels. In 2025, debt levels held steady, while the debt-to-capital ratio declined to 24%, supported by an expanding capital base.Figure 2 below compares debt per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) of reserves (blue area) with PV-10 (present value of proved oil and gas reserves at a 10% discount rate) per boe (orange line), which serves as the primary collateral supporting E&P debt. The gap between the two series reflects the industry’s “value cushion” — the margin between reserve value and outstanding debt.Periods where the orange line approaches or falls below the blue area — most notably in 2015-16 and again in 2020 — indicate that debt per boe exceeded the underlying reserve value, highlighting periods of balance-sheet stress. Following a peak in 2022, when this cushion reached its widest level, it has steadily narrowed, declining to $3.63/boe in 2025.The 11 companies in the Oil-Weighted E&P peer group increased total debt by approximately $2 billion in 2025 to $63 billion (blue bars and left axis in Figure 3 below), following a much larger $16 billion increase in 2024 driven primarily by acquisition activity led by Diamondback Energy and Occidental Petroleum. Despite the increase in absolute debt, the group’s debt-to-capital ratio (orange line and right axis) remained unchanged at 24% in 2025, as companies expanded their capital base through a combination of equity issuance — largely tied to acquisition financing — and retained earnings supported by continued profitability.As with the broader E&P universe, debt for the Oil-Weighted group peaked in 2019 at approximately $63 billion before declining by more than $20 billion through 2022, reflecting a period of balance-sheet repair during the early years of the cash-return model. Debt began to rise again in 2023, increasing modestly to $44 billion, before accelerating sharply in 2024 as M&A activity re-emerged as a primary vehicle for growth.Figure 4 below compares debt per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) of reserves (blue area) with the PV-10 per boe (orange line) for the Oil-Weighted E&P peer group. The value cushion peaked in 2022 and has declined in each year since, falling to $3.23/boe in 2025, driven primarily by lower reserve values. (As noted above, periods where the orange line approaches or falls into the blue area indicate balance-sheet stress.)Figure 5 below positions the 11 companies in the Oil-Weighted E&P peer group by debt-to-capital (x-axis) and debt per boe (y-axis), providing a relative view of balance-sheet leverage and asset-level debt intensity. Companies in the upper-right quadrant exhibit both higher leverage and higher debt per unit of reserves, while those in the lower-left quadrant reflect stronger balance sheets with lower leverage and debt burdens. There is a clear dispersion in financial positioning across the Oil-Weighted peer group, with a subset of companies still carrying elevated leverage, while others operate with significant balance-sheet capacity.HighPeak Energy (HPK) stands out as the most levered name in the group across both metrics, with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) also positioned toward the higher end of the leverage spectrum. These companies may have the greatest incentive to allocate incremental cash flow toward debt reduction, particularly in periods of stronger oil prices like we’ve seen since March.At the opposite end of the spectrum, Chord Energy (CHRD), EOG Resources (EOG) and California Resources (CRC) occupy the lower-left quadrant, reflecting relatively conservative leverage profiles and lower debt per boe. These companies are better positioned on a balance-sheet basis and may have greater flexibility to allocate capital toward shareholder returns or selective growth.
California Moves to Block Federal Order Restarting Sable Oil Pipelines - California is seeking a court injunction to block a federal order restarting Sable Offshore’s oil pipelines, setting up a major legal fight over pipeline authority and regulation. (P&GJ) — California Attorney General Rob Bonta is seeking a preliminary injunction to block a federal order that enabled the restart of Sable Offshore Corp.’s onshore oil pipelines, setting up a legal clash over pipeline authority and regulatory control. The motion challenges a March directive issued by the U.S. Department of Energy under the Defense Production Act (DPA), which required Sable to resume oil transportation through its Las Flores pipeline system. State officials argue the order improperly overrides California law and a federal court consent decree governing the pipelines. The dispute centers on Lines CA-324 and CA-325, which run along the Santa Barbara County coastline and have been largely inactive since a 2015 rupture caused the Refugio oil spill. That incident released more than 120,000 gallons of crude oil and led to stricter oversight requirements before any restart could occur. According to the state’s filing, the federal order directed Sable to resume operations without completing required state approvals or meeting conditions outlined in the consent decree. California argues the DPA does not grant federal officials authority to bypass environmental regulations or court orders. The lawsuit also contends the federal directive exceeds statutory authority by attempting to compel pipeline operations rather than prioritizing contracts, which is the intended scope of the DPA. State attorneys further argue the order is inconsistent with federal regulations and was issued without required findings or analysis. Sable resumed transporting oil through the pipelines shortly after the federal order was issued in March, citing compliance with the directive. California maintains the restart creates potential environmental and safety risks, while also undermining state regulatory authority. The motion asks the court to halt pipeline operations until the legal challenge is resolved. The case is part of a broader legal effort by the state to challenge federal actions affecting pipeline oversight, including a separate dispute over jurisdictional classification of the same lines.
PADD 5 Crude Imports Fall to 5-Year Low - U.S. crude imports fell 275 Mb/d to 5.48 MMb/d last week, about 250 Mb/d below the four week average and nearly 750 Mb/d below the year to date average. PADD 5 imports dropped sharply, falling 470 Mb/d to just 560 Mb/d, the lowest weekly volume since January 1, 2021. PADD 1 imports rebounded from the previous week’s all time low, rising from 135 Mb/d to 600 Mb/d, slightly above the year to date average. Canadian imports were hit hard (see chart below), falling 705 Mb/d to just 3.27 MMb/d, the lowest weekly volume this year, likely tied to the drop in PADD 5 imports. With the current state of affairs in the Strait of Hormuz, imports are likely to remain below normal levels well into the summer.
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Hess Midstream Benefiting from Longer Bakken Laterals | RBN Energy -Hess Midstream said during its earnings call May 4 that it expected to reduce its capital expenditures to $100 million in 2026, about one-third less than its previous guidance, reflecting Chevron’s move to longer laterals in the Bakken and the completion of a second compressor station that is now online.“Chevron continues to bring lessons from other basins to the Bakken, like longer laterals, workover optimization and increased chemicals to improve productivity. We are also benefiting from that,” CEO Jonathan Stein said. “Longer laterals, for example, make wells more economic by decreasing the breakeven and … reduce our well-connect requirements as fewer wells are needed.”Chevron has a 37.8% interest in Hess Midstream after its $60 billion acquisition of Hess, which closed in July 2025. About 90% of Hess Midstream's volumes are from Chevron production, with third parties making up the other 10%.Hess said throughput volumes were 430 MMcf/d for gas processing, 119 Mb/d for crude terminaling and 115 Mb/d for water gathering in Q1 2026, all in line with previous guidance but down from Q4 2025, primarily due to severe winter weather in January and February, partially offset by recovery in March as well as capture of additional third-party gas volume. Hess said it expects volumes to grow the rest of the year, excluding the impact of planned maintenance at the Tioga Gas Plant that is expected to reduce volumes by 5-10 MMcf/d during Q2.
White House Backs Alaska LNG Tax Reform as Legislative Deadline Nears --The White House has lent its support to Alaska legislation aimed at advancing the long-delayed Alaska LNG project, urging state lawmakers to consider tax reforms that could incentivize the massive export facility. At a Glance:
- Bills target Alaska LNG tax structure
- Dunleavy touts federal LNG support
- Legislative deadline nears for bills
Ksi Lisims LNG in ‘Advanced’ Discussions for More Offtakers as it Targets FID by Year’s End -The Ksi Lisims LNG project in British Columbia (BC) is still targeting a final investment decision this year amid renewed momentum for Canadian LNG export growth. Table showing Other North America LNG netback prices as of May 6, 2026, comparing Western Canada AECO, Costa Azul SoCal Border, Cove Point Transco Zone 5, and NGI Waha forward natural gas prices from June 2026 through May 2027 in $US/MMBtu. The chart highlights LNG export economics, basis differentials, forward gas prices, and regional netback spreads across North American natural gas markets. At a Glance:
Project has all permits to start construction
Feed gas system already being built
4 Mt/y of offtake deals signed so far
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: AltaGas Reports 5% Increase in LPG Exports | RBN Energy - AltaGas averaged 125 Mb/d of LPG exports to Asia during Q1 2026, up 5% from a year ago, underscoring continued strength in global demand, the company said during its quarterly earnings call April 30.The company has also expanded its shipping footprint, taking delivery of its third VLGC time charter in April, with a fourth vessel expected to join the fleet in late 2026. In addition, the expansion of its Ridley Island Export Energy Facility (REEF) is progressing toward a Q4 2026 startup and will increase export capacity by 30 Mb/d, bringing total capacity to 56 Mb/d. The project is about 75% complete, with all modules onsite and the majority fully installed (see photos below).Following the implementation of U.S. tariffs, AltaGas said it has captured an 11% share of the Chinese LPG market, up from zero previously.The company reported EBITDA of $818 million, a record, up 19% from the same period last year, on the stronger throughput across its midstream system.
Q1 2026 Earnings Calls: Tourmaline Says Western Canada’s Gas Glut Looks Temporary | RBN Energy Tourmaline mentioned on its Q1 2026 earnings call that weak Western Canadian gas prices are masking what management sees as a much tighter long-term market. The company said rising LNG export demand, improving California market conditions and growing gas-fired power demand should eventually absorb today’s excess supply, even as AECO pricing remains pressured in the near term. Management consistently framed the current weakness as a temporary export bottleneck rather than a structural oversupply problem, pointing to LNG Canada’s ramp-up in Kitimat, BC, and improving downstream demand as key catalysts for a market rebalance. Executives said LNG Canada recently approached its 2 Bcf/d nameplate capacity, while export demand into California appears likely to strengthen later this summer as hydro generation declines and heat-driven power demand increases. Tourmaline also highlighted early feedgas demand from Mexico’s Costa Azul LNG project, which management believes should further tighten the California corridor and improve pricing signals across Western Canada. The company estimates that roughly 1 Bcf/d of export demand is currently backed up in the basin, temporarily offsetting the tightening effect from LNG Canada’s startup. Still, management emphasized that LNG export demand should remain in place for decades, while the current export disruption may last only a few more months. Tourmaline is positioning itself for that expected tightening by continuing to expand infrastructure and increase exposure to international pricing. The company said its Aitken Creek and Groundbirch facility projects in Northeast BC (green circles in map below) remain on schedule as part of a broader Montney buildout designed to lower costs and support long-term production growth. At the same time, Tourmaline continues to increase exposure to JKM- and TTF-linked gas pricing, while stronger Asian propane pricing is expected to lift 2026 NGL realizations by roughly 30% year over year. Management also stressed that improving well productivity and lower operating costs are making the company more resilient during periods of weak regional gas pricing. Beyond LNG exports, Tourmaline pointed to data centers and gas-fired power generation as another potentially important long-term demand driver for Western Canadian gas. Management said the company has spent roughly a year evaluating potential hyperscaler-related opportunities in Alberta, including possible behind-the-fence power projects tied to large data center developments. While no project was announced, the discussion reinforced a broader theme emerging across North America’s gas market: LNG exports may represent only one part of a larger wave of natural gas demand growth tied to power reliability, industrial expansion and AI-driven electricity consumption.
Trump gives go-ahead to major new Canada-US oil pipeline - (AP) — President Donald Trump granted a key approval Thursday for a major new oil pipeline from Canada into the U.S. that’s been dubbed “Keystone Light” over its similarities to a contentious project blocked by the Biden administration. The three-foot-wide (1 meter) Bridger Pipeline Expansion would carry up to 550,000 barrels (87,400 cubic meters) of oil a day from Canada through Montana and Wyoming, where it would link with another pipeline. The pipeline needs additional state and federal environmental approvals before construction, which company officials expect to start next year. Environmentalists hope to stop the project over worries that the pipeline could break and spill. At peak volume, the 650-mile (1,050-kilometer) pipeline would move two-thirds as much oil as the better-known Keystone XL pipeline that got partially built before President Joe Biden, citing climate change, canceled its permit on the day he took office in 2021. Trump's plan to paint the Eisenhower office building could cost at least $7.5M, the White House says “Slightly different from the last administration. They wouldn’t sign a pipeline deal. And we have pipelines going up,” Trump said after signing his approval for it to cross the border between Saskatchewan and northeastern Montana. Trump in his first term approved the Keystone XL project in 2020 despite concerns from Native American tribes about possible spills and environmental groups about fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change. Its cancellation by Biden frustrated Canadian officials, including Prime Minster Justin Trudeau, after Alberta invested more than $1 billion in the project.Sometimes called “Keystone Light,” the Bridger Pipeline Expansion would not cross any Native American reservations. More than 70% would be built within existing pipeline corridors and 80% on private land, Bridger Pipeline LLC said in a statement. The line would carry various grades of crude, including from Canada’s oil sands region, to be exported or refined in the U.S., company spokesperson Bill Salvin said. The permit from Trump also authorizes other petroleum products including gasoline, kerosene, diesel and liquified petroleum gas. Salvin said including those fuels keeps the company’s options open, but it remains focused for now on crude oil. Bridger Pipeline could avoid a reversal by a future administration if it’s able to complete its project before Trump leaves office. It hopes to start construction in the fall of 2027 and finish it by late 2028 or early 2029, Bridger spokesperson Bill Salvin said.
Sempra Targets June for ECA First LNG as Startup Begins --First LNG from Sempra’s EnergÃa Costa Azul (ECA) export project in Mexico is weeks away after the introduction of feed gas into Phase 1 and the launch of startup activities, the company confirmed Thursday. At a Glance:
- ECA targets summer substantial completion
- Permian gas finds Pacific outlet
- KKR deal supports utility pivot
US oil stocks plummet, country becomes net crude exporter on weekly basis for first time, EIA says (Reuters) - The United States became a net exporter of crude for the first time since World War Two as the country shipped a record volume of oil to refiners scrambling for supplies after the Iran war, leading to large drops in domestic inventories, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Europe and Asia have increasingly become dependent on crude from the Americas after the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global energy market and halted shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies. Total U.S. crude exports climbed to a record 6.44 million barrels per day, marking a 1.64 million bpd rise from the week prior. Oil futures extended gains following the report. Global Brent crude futures were up $8.11 at $119.37 a barrel at 12:35 p.m. ET (1635 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $7.06 a barrel at $106.91. Net imports of crude oil, or the difference between imports and exports, fell by 1.97 million bpd to minus 688,000 bpd, the first time it turned negative on a weekly basis, meaning outflows surpassed imports. On an annual basis, the U.S. was last a net exporter of crude in 1943, while on a monthly basis, the country was last a net exporter in 1944. The large exports pushed U.S. crude inventories down by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels in the week ended April 24, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 231,000-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub dropped by 796,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said. "Refineries didn't change. Domestic production was unchanged. It was all about the export numbers. Those barrels are going overseas rather than into storage," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Total exports of crude oil and petroleum products also touched a record 14.18 million bpd, up 1.298 million bpd from the week prior. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to 222.3 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel draw. That marked the 11th straight week of draws, raising some concerns about fuel stocks as U.S. driving season looms.
U.S. Fuel Exports Hit Record High as Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Energy Flows -- US oil product exports surged to a record 8.2 million barrels per day last week as countries scrambled to replace fuel supplies disrupted by the Hormuz crisis, according to Bloomberg reporting, which noted that diesel exports led the increase and reached an all-time high.
Countries are now competing for refined products, including diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline as shipping disruptions around Hormuz destabilize downstream fuel systems tied to transportation, aviation, and industrial activity. Europe’s growing jet fuel shortages and rising diesel demand across Asia are increasingly pulling more US barrels into international markets. The U.S. has effectively become the balancing supplier for global fuel markets while Gulf exports remain disrupted, giving Washington enormous pricing and supply influence even as the broader conflict continues destabilizing energy flows worldwide. Despite these record U.S. exports, however, it won’t be enough to fully replace lost Gulf supply. On top of the record volumes of refined products the U.S. is exporting abroad, it is also exporting more than 5 million barrels per day of crude, making it the supplier of last resort for global energy markets. Those barrels are increasingly coming from storage as inventories tighten and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains heavily depleted from earlier emergency releases. In addition, port infrastructure along the Gulf Coast is also operating near capacity, and every additional export barrel increases pressure on domestic fuel markets already dealing with higher gasoline and diesel prices. That is starting to create a domestic political problem. Record export volumes help stabilize global markets, but they also tighten domestic supply balances and push American fuel prices higher at the exact moment the White House is trying to contain inflation heading into the midterms. Countries across Asia have already moved to restrict fuel exports to protect local supply. If gasoline and diesel prices continue climbing in the United States while American crude and refined products keep leaving the country at record levels, pressure for some form of export restriction or emergency intervention will start growing quickly in Washington.
US is oil supplier of last resort as Hormuz disruptions worsen -- The tankers have been arriving from all over the world in unprecedented numbers. After loading up in Alaska and along the US Gulf Coast, they head back out to sea — to Japan, Thailand and even as far as Australia. All told, over the past nine weeks, more than 250 million barrels of crude from oil wells and storage tanks across the US have been shipped overseas. That’s made the country, once again, the No. 1 exporter of crude, overtaking Saudi Arabia, and turned it into a lifeline for global consumers as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz throttles Middle Eastern supplies. But record American exports also come with warnings that this supply cushion is rapidly being pushed to its limits. Many energy experts are questioning how long shipments can be sustained at such levels. US domestic inventories are quickly depleting, with total oil and fuel stockpiles drawing down for four straight weeks to below historical averages. Meanwhile, America’s oil producers are struggling to keep up. “Ships are coming to take our oil, but once significant volumes of oil are leaving the United States, it can be expected that balances will tighten,” “We are digging ourselves a hole in terms of spending down inventories.” It’s a problem with global consequences. Even with a steady stream of US exports in recent weeks, it hasn’t been enough to eclipse the supply shortages sparked by the choking off of the strait. Brent crude, the key benchmark, has jumped roughly 50% since the war broke out and just last week topped $126 a barrel, the highest since 2022. If America’s crude shipments are now nearing their maximum, the competition for barrels will grow even stiffer. Within the US, energy inflation is already projected to factor heavily into November’s midterm elections. Retail gasoline prices are soaring, and some voters are sure to question why so much oil is being shipped out to international markets. US President Donald Trump has been boasting about the surging exports. “This has been amazing,” he said Friday. “The amount of oil and gas that we’re selling now is at a level that nobody’s ever seen.” In the months after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gasoline in the US topped out just over $5 a gallon. It’s a threshold Energy Secretary Chris Wright has emphasized, to draw a contrast with lower fuel costs today. And it will be a key level to watch over the next few months leading into the election. Average prices for US retail gasoline have already topped $4.40 a gallon. “The United States is insulated, but not isolated,” from the energy crisis sweeping the world, said Jay Singh, head of US oil and gas research at Rystad Energy. Much of the oil leaving American shores during the Iran war has headed to Asia. The region’s refiners until recently relied on the Persian Gulf as their main source of oil supply, with the war now forcing a hard pivot toward US crude. One striking example is Japan. Before the war, the nation bought around 90% of its crude and fuel supply from the Middle East, along with only minimal volumes of American oil. Now the country is among those first out of the gate to snap up US supply. Sales of supplies that will be loaded in June, and which will arrive in August or thereabouts, began just days ago and Japanese refiners collectively have already bought at least 8 million barrels of US crude, said traders familiar with the matter. In Singapore, a regional commodity trading hub, refiners have also swung to purchasing more US crude. And demand from South Korea — long the world’s second-biggest buyer of US crude — remains strong. To be sure, Japan and South Korea have crude stockpiles of their own to help provide a buffer. Limited crude flows from the United Arab Emirates and Oman are also still taking place. Questions remain, however, over how long such supplies can last — especially with little publicly known about the national storage levels. And other exporters, such as Brazil, don’t typically ship the crude grades that these Asian nations need most. The transformation of the US from a net importer of oil to a major global supplier is relatively new. The shift was sparked by the shale revolution of the early 2000s, when horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing from Texas to North Dakota swiftly boosted domestic production. In 2015, the US lifted a ban that prohibited most oil exports, which was imposed in the wake of the 1970s Arab oil embargo. By 2019, booming shale production made the country a net exporter of crude and fuels. Analysts say America’s emergence as an energy juggernaut underpins its ability to take increasingly bold foreign policy steps. This year alone, the US ousted Venezuela’s long-time leader, enforced sanctions on two of Russia’s biggest oil companies and, along with Israel, started the war in Iran — all moves that threatened global crude balances. Trump — a relentless champion of what he calls America’s “energy dominance” — has repeatedly boasted about the ability of the US to help fill the massive crude supply gap created by the war in Iran. “We have more oil production right now than any time in history,” Trump said to reporters on Friday. “And if you take a look at the ships, they’re all coming up to Texas, Louisiana, Alaska.”
Don’t You (Forget About Me) – Crude Oil Hogs the Spotlight, But Venezuela Has Major Gas Reserves Too | RBN Energy - Nearly all of the recent analysis of Venezuela has centered on crude oil and refined products, which makes sense since the country boasts about 300 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, roughly 17% of the global total, although there’s skepticism about that estimate. But its extensive natural gas reserves shouldn’t be overlooked, especially at a time when many oil and gas firms are evaluating their plans for future investment there. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where Venezuela’s gas reserves stand today, compare domestic production and consumption trends, and explain why LNG exports from Trinidad & Tobago’s Atlantic LNG terminal could play a role in boosting activity.Venezuela has been a frequent topic in the RBN blogosphere since the start of the year, when U.S. forces deposed and arrested President Nicolás Maduro. In Take Me Money and Run Venezuela, we recapped how the country went from a major global supplier to producing less than 1 MMb/d today — roughly one-quarter of its former output. We then dug into Venezuela’s crude slate in Orinoco Flow, noting that most reserves lie in the 21,000-square-mile Orinoco Belt and are extra-heavy, making the oil difficult and costly to transport and refine. In When Love Comes to Town, we compared Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crudes and why they’re attractive to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. In Round and Round (which previewed our first Drill Down Report of 2026 — available here), we laid out the practical steps Venezuela would need to take to boost crude production. In The Show Goes On, we turned our attention to the country’s refining sector, while in Upgrade U we looked at the important role Venezuela’s crude upgraders figure to play in any plan to boost domestic production and increase exports.As we’ve noted previously, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, along with chronic underinvestment and mismanagement by state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), are largely responsible for the sharp drop in crude oil production and refinery utilization, especially over the last decade. Those same factors have also impacted the country’s natural gas sector, where a poor investment climate, insufficient infrastructure, a lack of domestic demand, and an inability to develop gas projects for export have contributed to its prolonged underdevelopment. Venezuela has an estimated 200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of conventional (non-associated) natural gas reserves, the seventh largest in the world and representing about 70% of South American reserves, according to a February report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). In addition, if Venezuelan oil production is reestablished to historical levels, that could represent another 160-200 Tcf of associated gas resources. For comparison, the U.S. had proved reserves of 583.9 Tcf at the end of 2024, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimate published in April. Although Venezuela’s conventional gas reserves are estimated to be about one-third of the U.S. total, actual production (about 80% of it associated gas, according to the EIA) pales in comparison at around 3 Bcf/d. Venezuelan gas production (blue line in Figure 1 below) was fairly steady between 1998 and 2018, holding between 2.93 Bcf/d (2011) and 3.74 Bcf/d (2017) in every year except 2003, when output dipped to 2.7 Bcf/d. Output dropped to 2.08 Bcf/d in the pandemic year of 2020 before rebounding back to more-normal levels by 2024. By comparison, production in the U.S. Lower 48 is approaching 110 Bcf/d, with Appalachia alone at about 36 Bcf/d. According to Energy Institute data (formerly the BP Statistical Review of Energy), domestic gas consumption has exactly matched production through the years, except during 2007-15 (orange line), when consumption was a little higher than output. (Small amounts of Colombian gas were imported during that period via the Trans-Caribbean pipeline to meet the supply gap. Venezuela terminated the pipeline contract in 2015. The pipeline has been idle since then.)Much of Venezuela’s gas is produced in the area near Anaco (black circle in Figure 2 below) in the country’s northeast, drawn from the nearby Santa Barbara, Furrial and Mesa 30 oil fields. Crude oil from the previously noted Orinoco Belt (orange-shaded area) produces very little associated gas and is quite similar to bitumen produced in Alberta. A significant percentage of domestic gas production is flared or vented into the atmosphere because the facilities to recover it and reinject it back into oil wells via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) are damaged and Venezuela lacks significant natural gas pipelines (gray lines) and infrastructure. Overall production in recent months has been around 4 Bcf/d, with volumes split between domestic consumption (~50%), system losses (flaring and venting, ~45%) and reinjection into oil fields (~5%). The Orinoco Belt and the country’s interior are flanked by offshore conventional gas fields to the northwest and the northeast. The Perla field (green circle at top left of Figure 2), a joint venture between Italy’s Eni (the block’s operator), Spain’s Repsol and PDVSA, produces about 580 MMcf/d, well under its potential, according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). Reserves there are estimated at 17 Tcf. On the other end of the country, the Dragon field (green-shaded area at top right) is not currently in production, although its proximity to Trinidad & Tobago’s Hibiscus natural gas platform and the Atlantic LNG export terminal (red circle) is a major plus. (More on those below.) Reserves at Dragon are estimated at 4.2 Tcf.
Europe Proposes to Keep but Not Enforce Crazy Methane Import Law – Marcellus Drilling News -- The European Union’s idiotic methane regulations begin in earnest next year. Domestic (European) oil, gas, and coal companies must monitor, measure, and report their emissions. The same restrictions will apply to energy imports from other countries, including imports from the U.S. (see Europeans Presume to Impose Their Regulations on American Gas). The arrogant Euro weenies presume to tell us that we must follow *their* regulations! But then Trump took command of the White House, and everything changed. The Euro weenies have agonized over how to keep strict regs while saving face and allowing American LNG in. They have just the solution: keep the regs but don’t enforce them.
Global Natural Gas Benchmarks Rise as El Niño Threat Clouds LNG Supply Outlook --As global natural gas benchmarks shrug at shoulder season forecasts, the threat of El Niño is causing traders to weigh aggressive competition between Asian and European buyers in the coming months. Charts showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo through May 2026, comparing daily temperatures to normal trends, highlighting seasonal shifts impacting natural gas demand. At a Glance:
Asian heat lifts cooling demand
Hormuz risk keeps traders cautious
LNG feed gas boosts US demand
ExxonMobil Sees Long Qatar LNG Repair Timeline After Hormuz Crisis Hits Supply - ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said that 3% of the company’s global LNG production could remain offline for up to five years following damage to two liquefaction trains in Qatar. Map of Persian Gulf LNG import and export terminals highlighting QatarEnergy, Das Island, Bahrain LNG, Jebel Ali FSRU, Ruwais FSRU, Al Zour, with Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, illustrating global LNG trade flows, Middle East gas infrastructure, energy security risks. At a Glance:
Qatar LNG damage drags supply
Hormuz closure curbs global cargoes
Repairs stretch three to five years
Why Hormuz Cannot Be Fully Replaced, Especially for LNG -– Marcellus Drilling News -- What happens on he other side of the world sometimes affects the Marcellus/Utica. So far, the Iran war has not affected prices (or demand) in the M-U for natural gas. However, if the war continues to drag on for months, it could potentially affect us by affecting the price of LNG on the world market. About one-fifth (20%) of global LNG trade depends on the Strait of Hormuz, with effectively no other way to get it out. Oil can, potentially, find other pathways out of the Persian Gulf (via overland pipelines). But such is not the case with LNG from Qatar.
Some LNG Passing Through Strait of Hormuz as Operators Conceal Vessel Movements - The United Arab Emirates’ ADNOC and others are hiding vessel movements and locations in an effort to slip LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, ship tracking data shows.The Mubaraz vessel became the first fully loaded LNG ship to transit the strait since the war began. It loaded a cargo on March 2 at Das Island. Kpler said last week it passed through the waterway and is now sending a signal with a destination of China. It’s unclear when it passed through the strait.Kpler also shows “dark activity” for the ADNOC-chartered Mraweh, which vessel tracking shows loaded April 24 and now has a destination of Japan. The concealed movements come as peace negotiations between the United States and Iran are ongoing and naval fighting continues in the Persian Gulf.
Australia Orders LNG Exporters to Reserve 20% of Gas for Domestic Market - Australia’s government has mandated energy companies in the country to set aside 20% of their natural gas output for the domestic market to avoid supply shortages along the east coast. The mandate will come into effect from July next year, Reuters reported today, adding that it will affect three companies with LNG facilities on the east coast of Australia: Shell, Santos, and Origin Energy. The mandates will not interfere with long-term LNG export contracts, concerning instead spot market sales and prospective contracts, according to Australia’s energy minister. “This is a carefully calibrated model which ensures that Australia's national best interests are put first,” Chris Bowen told the media. “This is a policy which will obviously not please everyone - often good policy doesn't - but it's good policy.” The energy industry is far from thrilled with this good policy, however. The idea of gas reserve mandates first emerged in 2017, leading to the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism aimed at making sure one of the top global exporters of liquefied natural gas did not suffer shortages at home. Big Oil immediately responded with warnings that this could discourage further investment in the country’s gas industry, which is necessary to boost supply, including for the domestic market, for the future. The east coast of Australia is particularly vulnerable to supply shortages. Last year, the country's competition regulator warned the market could swing into a deficit by December. That danger was temporarily averted thanks to the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism, but the competition authority still warned last year that the risk of shortages remains. In fact, the competition authority last October said gas supply for the eastern coast will swing into a surplus in the first quarter of this year, with the size of the surplus estimated at between 2 and 24 petajoules. That was before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, which changed the global supply situation radically, bringing the risk of a shortage closer as demand for non-Middle Eastern LNG surged.
Pakistan 'rejects' LNG supply bids for May spot cargoes - Pakistan has rejected bids for spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes for May as the country faces growing uncertainty over energy shipments, sources in the Ministry of Energy said on Friday. The bids were invited by Pakistan LNG Limited (PLNG) for the purchase of two spot LNG cargoes scheduled for delivery between May 12-14 and May 24-26. According to sources, seven bids were received for the two cargoes. The lowest bid for the May 12-14 delivery window stood at $17.28 per mmbtu. For the May 24-26 delivery window, the lowest offer came in at $16.98 per mmbtu, the sources said. However, both the lowest bids for spot LNG supply were rejected by the Pakistan LNG Board, according to Ministry of Energy sources. The sources further said that earlier bids for the procurement of two spot LNG cargoes for May had also been rejected. The country rejected the offers as there are indications that it may be able to secure LNG supplies from Qatar under long-term contractual arrangements at significantly lower prices, according to a report by The News. Citing officials familiar with the development, The News reported that the decision appeared linked to positive signals from Qatar regarding the availability of two LNG cargoes that could be routed through the Strait of Hormuz. The sources said Qatar had earlier shown reluctance in supplying additional LNG cargoes to Pakistan due to fears surrounding regional security risks and potential disruption to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report. However, recent geopolitical developments and Pakistan’s evolving diplomatic role in the region are believed to have improved confidence regarding LNG transportation, it said. Pakistan last received an LNG cargo on April 30, providing a much-needed boost to the country’s energy sector. LNG carrier Seapeak Magellan docked at the Pakistan GasPort terminal on April 30 and started feeding re-gasified LNG (RLNG) into the national network, according to The News. The cargo — arranged by TotalEnergies at a price of $18.40 per mmbtu — marked the first LNG shipment to reach the country since a US-origin cargo arrived
Uzbekistan records second oil spill in Surkhandarya in recent weeks - Uzbekistan recorded a new oil-mixed liquid leak in Surkhandarya Region’s Boysun (Baysun) district on May 2 following a powerful mudflow, according to the National Committee for Ecology and Climate Change of Uzbekistan. The incident occurred at around 06:30, when heavy flooding damaged a protective trench, allowing oil-contaminated liquid to spill into the surrounding area. Preliminary findings indicate that the mudflow caused the structure to collapse, leading to the leak. A joint working group, including specialists from the regional ecology department and environmental enforcement officers, has been deployed to the site. Authorities are currently assessing the situation and evaluating the environmental impact of the spill. Officials stated that the situation has been brought under control, while monitoring and investigation efforts are ongoing. Additional information will be provided once final conclusions are reached. Earlier incident was reported on April 23 in Boysun, where oil-contaminated liquid flowed into the Xongaronsoy (Khongaronsoy) River from a well operated by Surkhan Gas Chemical Operating Company. According to a special commission, around 1.2 tonnes of oil-mixed liquid entered the river after heavy rainfall, causing environmental damage estimated at over UZS 8.5bn ($670,000). Cleanup operations were subsequently carried out, and the contaminated water was treated. Investigations into the earlier incident are still ongoing.weeks earlier.
Chevron CEO Says Physical Shortages in Oil Supply to Begin Appearing (Reuters) – Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said on Monday that physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around the world because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude supply passes. Economies will begin shrinking, first in Asia, as demand adjusts to meet supply while the strait remains closed because of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Wirth said during a discussion sponsored by the Milken Institute.
Goldman Says Global Oil Stocks Approaching Eight-Year Low, Depletion Speed a Concern (Reuters) – Global oil stocks are approaching their lowest level in eight years, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, warning that the speed of depletion was becoming a concern as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted. Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday after Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and set a UAE oil port ablaze, as President Donald Trump’s attempt to use the U.S. Navy to free up shipping provoked the biggest escalation since a ceasefire was declared four weeks ago. The bank estimated total global oil stocks stood at 101 days of global demand and could fall to 98 days by the end of May. Goldman added that while total global stocks are “unlikely to hit minimum operational levels this summer, the speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products is concerning.” The bank estimated that global commercial refined products stocks have drawn down from 50 DoD before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran to 45 DoD now. The bank added that easily accessible refined products buffers were fast approaching very low levels.
Black tide from US-Israeli aggression on Iran chokes Persian Gulf turtle nesting sanctuary - Black crude now clings to the shoreline of Shidvar Island – an uninhabited island in the Persian Gulf known for picturesque beaches and blue waters – like a second skin. Days after US-Israeli military aggression targeted Iran's civilian oil infrastructure on Lavan Island last month, the pale coral beaches of this protected Persian Gulf sanctuary were swallowed by a continuous band of tar as petroleum pollutants spread across its waters. What was once an undisturbed crescent of white sand has been transformed into an oily black seam, raising urgent questions about the fate of the hawksbill turtles, migratory seabirds, and coral formations that make Shidvar one of the most ecologically sensitive islands in Iranian waters. On this tiny, uninhabited refuge – known locally as Maro – there is still no complete accounting of what has happened beneath that black sheen. Whether nesting turtles managed to crawl ashore to lay their eggs, whether hatchlings suffocated beneath contaminated sand, whether breeding colonies of terns abandoned their nesting grounds, or how much of Iran's only protected coral reef ecosystem has already absorbed irreversible toxic damage – nothing is clear yet. What is visible, however, is enough to establish one fact with brutal clarity: the consequences of the US-Israeli war of aggression did not stop at burning fuel depots and damaged refinery channels. They moved outward with the tide. The contamination traces back to the April 8 attack on the Lavan refinery complex, one of Iran's major civilian petroleum facilities in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials say the strike took place even after a ceasefire had been declared, rupturing sections of oil transfer infrastructure and allowing petroleum materials to escape into adjacent marine waters. From there, Persian Gulf currents pushed the contamination across the southern and eastern beaches of Lavan and through the narrow waters separating Lavan from Shidvar Island – a protected wildlife reserve only about 1.5 kilometers away. Within days, images from the scene showed long stretches of coastline coated in dark residue, while field inspections confirmed that the spill was no longer a localized refinery accident but the beginning of a wider coastal ecological emergency. According to Habib Masihi-Taziani, Director General of the Hormozgan Department of Environment, the pollution has affected far more than a single island. "Nearly the entire coastal strip of Hormozgan – both the islands and the mainland – has suffered extensive petroleum contamination as a result of the enemy's attack on non-military facilities," he said. The official confirmed that the oil slick reaching Lavan and Shidvar has directly damaged "the habitat and nesting grounds of hawksbill sea turtles," warning that the incident struck during one of the most vulnerable ecological windows of the year. That timing is central to understanding the scale of the disaster. April and May mark the primary nesting season for the hawksbill turtle, a species classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as critically endangered. Female hawksbills return with remarkable precision to the same quiet sandy strips each year, hauling themselves ashore at night to bury eggs in warm upper beaches. Shidvar and nearby sections of Lavan are among the few remaining secure nesting corridors for these turtles in the northern Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia Accelerates Red Sea Pivot As Iran Chokes Strait Of Hormuz – i24NEWS As Iran continues to place a stranglehold on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is looking to reposition its economy around the Red Sea coast. Fast-tracking alternative trade infrastructure, Riyadh is promoting a shift to its NEOM Port, a component of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's broader gigaproject on the Red Sea. The Saudi government describes the port as a regional logistics hub connecting Europe, Egypt, and the Gulf. In mid-April, the official NEOM account on X posted, "Europe, Egypt, NEOM, Gulf: Your faster route," alongside a map showing corridors running from European ports through Egypt's Damietta and Safaga ports, across the Red Sea to NEOM, and overland into Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. The port received 2.2 million tons of cargo in 2024, roughly 2 percent of Saudi imports, and satellite imagery from early March showed a large number of freight trucks on site, pointing to growing activity. Broader infrastructure has also shifted. Separately from the Port of NEOM, the Port of Yanbu, also on the Red Sea, has experienced a surge of exports since February. According to data research group Kpler, Yanbu saw more than 29 million barrels per week in early April. Saudi Arabia was able to make this shift, by rerouting crude oil through an east-west pipeline originally built during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. However, due to capacity constraints, this is barely half the amount of barrels typically shipped through Saudi Arabia's east coast port, Ras Tanura. Limited infrastructure further plagues Saudi Arabia's ability to shift to the Red Sea. Because there is no train connection between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, a $27 billion plan to build a nearly 1,000 mile-long rail line from Riyadh to Jeddah is in the works, but has faced repeated delays and is expected to be completed in eight years, in 2034. Moving to the west coast of Saudi Arabia doesn't come without any risk. West Coast ports like Yanbu, as well as the east-west pipeline, have been targeted in the past by Iranian strikes. The Houthis in Yemen, who are allied with Iran and enemies of the Saudi crown, can also threaten the region, particularly the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, between Yemen and Djibouti in the southern end of the Red Sea. Additionally, back in 2019, the Houthis struck the east-west pipeline, halting nearly 700,000 barrels of oil per day for several days. Despite the pivot, analysts say a permanent bypass of Hormuz is not yet feasible, at least in the short term. While the NEOM port has been described as a tool for diversifying routes, it is not a standalone alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC+ announces 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase in first meeting without UAE --OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output of 188,000 barrels per day, the cartel said on Sunday, as it pushes on with production in the first meeting since the loss of its key member, the United Arab Emirates. The group of seven major oil producers announced it would increase June production by slightly less than May's output hike of 206,000 bpd. Sunday's figure excludes the United Arab Emirates share of output, which officially departed OPEC on May 1. The seven countries included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman."In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023," OPEC said in its statement.Oil supply has been choked since the Iran war began on February 28, as the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping route for global oil and gas supplies – has remained effectively closed. Oil prices fell Friday after Iran sent an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes again that a settlement with the U.S. is still possible.U.S. crude oil futures fell 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel. The international benchmark Brent crude lost nearly 2% to settle at $108.17. Both are nearly 78% higher since the start of 2026.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he had been told about the concept of a deal with Iran, but was waiting for the exact wording, while warning there was still the possibility of restarting strikes on the country if Tehran misbehaves. Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official as saying on Saturday that an Iranian proposal so far rejected by Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran's nuclear program for later.Concerns around production were amplified further on Tuesday with news of the shock departure of the UAE, the cartel's third-largest producer.The Gulf state concluded that exiting the group was in its national interest following a comprehensive review of its production policy and capacity, the Energy Ministry said in a written statement. The UAE had played an influential role in OPEC's decisions over nearly six decades and was the group's third-largest oil producer in February, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Oil Prices Fall as Trump Pledges to Assist Ships in Strait of Hormuz --Crude prices were slightly lower ahead of European markets opening as traders digested comments from US President Donald Trump that Washington would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz from today. Iran, however, has rejected the plan, The Caspian Post reports, citing foreign media. At the time of writing, the price of a barrel of US benchmark crude (WTI) was down 0.28% to $101.65 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, edged down 0.06% to $108.10 a barrel. Much hinges now on progress towards ending the war with Iran and unlocking the bottleneck through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil market “remains the fulcrum, with hundreds of tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships still stranded across the Gulf, idling as storage constraints force producers to shut ... production simply because there is nowhere left to store it,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary note. Trump said what he called “Project Freedom” would begin Monday morning in the Middle East. The US Central Command said it would involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members, but the Pentagon did not immediately answer questions about how they would be deployed. The main uncertainty for the global economy is where oil prices are heading because of the Iran war. Oil prices moved higher last week on worries that the war might keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time, trapping oil tankers pent up in the Persian Gulf instead of delivering crude to customers worldwide. Brent was selling for a little more than $70 per barrel before the war began, and soaring prices helped the two biggest U.S. oil companies report stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But stock prices nevertheless fell for both Exxon Mobil, 1%, and Chevron, 1.4%, as oil prices regressed Friday and each reported drops in net income from a year earlier. In other dealings early Monday, the dollar rose to 157.18 Japanese yen from 156.80 yen. The euro fell to $1.1724 from $1.1746.
Oil Prices Rise on Mounting Tensions Over Strait of Hormuz (DTN) -- Oil and product futures jumped Monday morning on reports that Iran fired warning shots at a U.S. warship trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Near 8:10 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery rose $2.68 to $110.85 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for June delivery advanced $1.48 to $103.42 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery edged higher $0.0183 to $3.9647 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures moved up $0.0259 to $3.6211 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.28 points to 98.285 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced that the U.S. Navy starting Monday would provide safe passage and guide stranded vessels through the waterway blockaded since early March, putting downward pressure on prices. Prices reversed course Monday morning, however, after reports emerged that a U.S. warship trying to break the Iranian blockade turned around after Iran fired warning shots. Roughly a fifth of global petroleum supply has been stranded in the Persian Gulf since Iran blockaded the strait in response to the U.S. and Israel launching attacks at the end of February. U.S. attempts to restart flows, which the President dubbed "Project Freedom," may also jeopardize the ceasefire in place since early April. Tehran over the weekend extended its territorial claim over the Strait of Hormuz and said it would consider any U.S. interference a breach of the ceasefire. Hopes for an immediate diplomatic resolution of the conflict faded further after the White House over the weekend rejected Iran's new 14-point proposal to permanently cease hostilities. The plan reportedly allowed Iran to continue uranium enrichment and assert control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, opposing two key U.S. demands. At the same time, President Trump in the same social media post announcing "Project Freedom" claimed that U.S. representatives were in "very good talks" with Iran which could lead to "something very positive for all". Seven OPEC+ members, meanwhile, on Sunday decided to raise production quotas for June by 188,000 bpd. The move by the group which just lost the UAE as a member was purely symbolic, given current production shut-ins caused by the lack of outlets and full inventories.
Oil jumps after Iran's navy said it halted a US warship (Reuters) - Brent crude oil jumped over 5% on Monday and the dollar strengthened after Iran's navy said it had prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. stock futures, European stocks and bond prices fell. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last down 0.5%, while the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 was 1.2% lower. Germany's 10-year bond yield DE10YT=RR, the benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was last up 4 basis points at 3.073%. Bond yields move inversely with prices. Iran's navy prevented "American-Zionist" warships entering the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, state TV reported, while the Fars news agency said two missiles had hit a U.S. warship near Jask on the Gulf of Oman after it ignored Iranian warnings. Reuters could not independently verify the reports. On social media site X, U.S. Central Command, part of the U.S. Department of Defense, said that no ships had been struck. Iran's military had earlier on Monday warned U.S. forces not to enter the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. He provided few details of the plan. Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures surged over $5.00 to $113.65 per barrel, having recovered from an initial decline during Asian trading hours. Analysts said, however, high prices were not sustainable longer term because of their impact on demand and the economy. "The market is being pulled in two opposing directions right now: on one hand, geopolitical risk is pushing oil higher and reviving inflation fears, but on the other, underlying growth especially in the U.S., is clearly softening," said Bruno Schneller, managing partner at Erlen Capital Management, a multi-family office. This combination was driving some of the big market swings recorded in stocks, bonds and currencies, he added.
Brent Races to $115 as Drones Hit UAE Energy Hub, Hormuz (DTN) -- Energy markets rallied anew Monday, driving crude futures up 6%, after an Iranian drone attack on a petroleum complex in the United Arab Emirates stoked new fires in the Middle East conflict. The strike on the VTTI Fujairah Terminals in UAE's eastern port city of Fujairah marked the first major escalation in almost a month in the conflict, after an April 8 ceasefire that halted U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran and Tehran's reciprocal strikes on its neighbors' oil facilities. Media images showed thick smoke billowing from the Fujairah plant, part of the global VTTI network owned by Dutch energy trader Vitol and Australia's IFM Investors. Media reports said a UAE oil tanker was also targeted by two drones while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway Iran has pledged to control in its bid to collect reparations for the war from vessels that, prior to the war, delivered a fifth of the world's energy needs. Separately, the U.S. Navy exchanged fire with Iranian gunboats after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would be creating a path for some 2,000 ships reportedly waiting to pass the Hormuz. In normal times, the waterway provides passage to 140 ships per day, carrying around 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids. Aside from Tehran's policing of the strait, the U.S. Navy is blocking any ship from entering or leaving Iran's ports. The renewed U.S.-Iran escalation and tensions around the Hormuz drove NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery up $4.48, or 4%, to $106.42 bbl at the close. By 2:30 p.m. EDT, global crude benchmark Brent was up $6.26, or 6%, to $114.43 barrel for the July contract on ICE Brent, reflecting the greater impact on oil supply outside of the U.S. Brent's session high was $115.30. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery edged up by $0.1236 to $4.0700 gallon. NYMEX RBOB futures for June climbed $0.1436 to $3.7388 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced by 0.335 points to 98.4 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Oil Prices Jump 6% as Iran Sets UAE Oil Port Ablaze, Strikes Vessels in Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday as Iran stepped up attacks on the United Arab Emirates and ships in the Middle East Gulf over the past 24 hours, the most serious escalation since a U.S.-Iran ceasefire came into force in early April. Brent futures rose $6.27, or 5.8%, to settle at $114.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.48, or 4.4%, to settle at $106.42. Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and set a UAE oil port ablaze, as President Donald Trump’s attempt to use the U.S. Navy to free up shipping provoked the war’s biggest escalation since a ceasefire was declared four weeks ago. The UAE said its air defenses were engaging missile and drone threats on Monday evening as firefighters battled a blaze at a major oil industry zone following a drone attack that authorities said had originated from Iran. The U.S. military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones fired by Tehran as it sought to thwart a new U.S. naval effort to open shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy, meanwhile, issued a map that it said was expanding the areas controlled by Iran near the Strait of Hormuz to include the UAE’s ports of Fujairah and Khorfakkan as well as the coast of Umm Al Quwain emirate in the UAE, according to Iranian news agencies.About 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. “Oil will remain above $100 and U.S. gasoline prices will reach $5 a gallon by June… without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” analysts from consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note. Motorists in California were already paying $6 a gallon for gasoline.Earlier in the day, the U.S. military said two U.S. merchant ships had made it through the strait, without saying when. Iran denied any crossings had taken place.Iran may have attacked four ships in the Gulf region over the past 24 hours, including vessels from South Korea and the UAE. There was a fire and an explosion on a vessel operated by South Korean shipper HMM 011200.KS in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the foreign ministry in Seoul said. The UAE accused Iran of attacking an empty crude oil tanker belonging to Abu Dhabi state oil firm ADNOC with drones as it attempted to transit the Strait. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), meanwhile, said it received a report of an incident involving a cargo vessel about 36 nautical miles north of Dubai. The UKMTO also reported a separate incident earlier in the day near the UAE. Separately, the energy minister in the UAE, which left OPEC last week, said the country owes it to its investment partners to produce what global oil markets require without restrictions, while cooperating with other crude producers. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, said they would raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Up To 2 Pc Even As West Asia Conflict Intensifies - Global crude oil prices declined sharply on Tuesday, falling up to 2 per cent despite a fresh escalation in West Asia, as the conflict entered its third month. The international oil benchmark Brent crude slipped 1.36 per cent to $112.88 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2.34 per cent to $103.92 per barrel. On the domestic front, crude oil futures (June 18) on the Multi Commodity Exchange traded lower, down 1.12 per cent or Rs 109 at Rs 9,578. Prices eased after a sharp rally in the previous session, even as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persisted. The global oil benchmark had risen overnight to nearly $114 per barrel. Meanwhile, the rupee opened 22 paise lower, hovering near record lows. The Indian currency was trading at 95.31 against the dollar after closing at a record low of 95.09 in the previous session. Iran reportedly launched attacks in the Gulf in response to US moves, as both sides vie for control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route connecting the Gulf to global markets and carrying nearly 20 per cent of the world’s daily oil and gas supply. Both sides carried out attacks in the Gulf, turning the Strait of Hormuz into a flashpoint and raising fears that the fragile ceasefire could collapse. A market expert said the resumption of hostilities in the Hormuz region and Brent crude rising again to around $113 are headwinds for the market. The latest missile and drone attacks came after US President Donald Trump moved to escort stranded tankers and cargo ships through the Strait, that has been largely blocked since the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran in February.
Oil Slips as US Attempts to Free Hormuz Strait -- Oil and product futures fell Tuesday morning on U.S. attempts to clear the Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran as ramped up hostilities kept the key waterway for energy markets at the front and center of the Middle East conflict. By 8:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery fell $1.87 to $112.57 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for June delivery slipped $2.51 to $103.91 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery retreated $0.0331 to $4.0401 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures softened by $0.0537 to $3.6845 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced by 0.1 points to 98.36 against a basket of foreign currencies. Energy prices slid as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, at a news conference with top U.S. general Dan Caine, said dozens of ships were lining up in the Hormuz for U.S. help to cross the narrow chokepoint which Iranian forces have blocked for most of the 66 days since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began. The blockade, along with a U.S. embargo on any vessel movement in and out of Iranian ports, has virtually paralyzed the Middle East oil trade which used to supply a fifth of the world's daily energy needs. An U.S.-Iranian ceasefire, in place since early April, looked to stand on shaky ground after an exchange of attacks on Monday resulting from a U.S. attempt to force open the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said it had destroyed six Iranian boats approaching a Navy ship, after Iranian warning shots earlier in the day forced another U.S. warship attempting to breach the blockade to turn around. Iran in response launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates, causing a fire at the port of Fujairah, one of the most important oil storage, refining and export hubs in the region. Monday's U.S. and Iranian attacks fueled concerns of the ceasefire breaking, leading front-month Brent futures to rally by almost 6%. On top of a rising geopolitical risk premium, most oil supply from the region continued to be disrupted. U.S. attempts to restart flows, which President Donald Trump dubbed "Project Freedom," have so far failed as vessel traffic through the vital energy chokepoint continued to be at a virtual standstill. Amid the escalation in fighting, Washington D.C. and Tehran continued to tout "progress" on the diplomatic front, moderating the rise in the risk premium. A second round of negotiations, however, has yet to be held after direct talks mediated by Pakistan more than three weeks ago yielded no results.
Oil prices fall 4% as fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, two ships pass through Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 4% in volatile trade on Tuesday, as two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz and the United States said the ceasefire with Iran remained in place despite exchanges of fire. After jumping about 6% in the prior session, Brent futures fell $4.57, or 4%, to settle at $109.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $4.15, or 3.9%, to settle at $102.27. "The complex may have seen some selling related to optimistic comments from the Trump Administration regarding the continued ceasefire with Iran," "But today’s price weakness looked more like a technical correction following a strong ... Brent price advance during the past week," The United Arab Emirates said it was under attack from Iranian missiles and drones on Tuesday, even as Washington said a shaky ceasefire was intact and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. had secured a path through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied it attacked the UAE in recent days. Hegseth said hundreds of ships were lining up to pass through the critical waterway. Before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, about 20% of global oil supplies passed through the strait daily. The U.S. military said two U.S. merchant ships made it through the strait, without saying when, with the support of Navy guided-missile destroyers. Iran denied any crossings had taken place, though shipping company Maersk MAERSKb.CO, opens new tab said the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged ship, under U.S. military escort on Monday. U.N. Security Council members will begin talks on Tuesday on a U.S.- and Bahrain‑backed draft resolution that could lead to sanctions against Iran, and potentially authorize force, if Tehran fails to halt attacks and threats to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, three Western diplomats said. U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's military capability on Tuesday and said Tehran "should wave the white flag of surrender," noting Iran's military has been reduced to firing "peashooters" and that Tehran privately wants to make a deal. The U.S. military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, after Trump sent the navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign he called "Project Freedom." South Korea is reviewing whether to join Trump's plan to help ships transit through the strait, an official said on Tuesday, following an explosion and fire on a Korean-operated ship in the waterway. The oil market awaited direction from weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group later on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts estimated energy firms pulled 3.3 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended May 1.
Oil prices fall a second day as Trump indicates possible Iran peace deal - Oil prices fell for a second day on Wednesday (May 6) on expectations bottled up supply from the key Middle East producing region could resume flowing after US President Donald Trump indicated a possible peace deal may be reached to end the war with Iran. Brent crude futures for July fell US$1.52, or 1.38 per cent, to US$108.35 per barrel as at 9.03 am in Singapore, after dropping 4 per cent in the previous session. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures for June declined US$1.50, or 1.47 per cent, to US$100.77, after closing down 3.9 per cent the day before. On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly said that he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress towards a comprehensive agreement with Iran, without giving details on the agreement. There was no immediate reaction from Teheran, where it was very early on Wednesday morning.Still, Trump said that the US Navy would continue its blockade of Iranian ports. The Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries cargoes equal to about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, has been most cut off since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb 28. The supply loss to the global market has pushed prices higher with Brent trading last week at its highest since March 2022. “We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom ... will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalised and signed,” Trump wrote on social media. Trump’s announcement came only hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed reporters on the effort, announced on Sunday, to escort stranded tankers through the strait. On Monday, the US military said that it had destroyed several Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, while guiding two vessels out of the Gulf through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz closure has drawn down global inventories as refineries try to make up the shortfall. US crude oil inventories fell for a third week, while petrol and distillate stocks also declined, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the sources said. Petrol inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels compared to a week earlier, the sources said.
Oil prices plunge on reports US and Iran nearing peace deal - Oil prices slumped more than 10 per cent on Wednesday after reports that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war that has strangled a fifth of global oil and gas supplies.Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, plunged 10 per cent but recovered some lost ground to trade 8 per cent lower at 101.83 a barrel at 4.23pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, which slumped more than 12 per cent was trading 8.43 per cent lower at $93.65 a barrel.For the week, both Brent and WTI have lost more than 11 per cent. Brent last settled below $100 mark on April 24, while WTI last closed below $90 on April 21.“The twists and turns continue. The United States called off the safeguarding of trade through Hormuz again, keeping uncertainty high, and transits are down to a trickle for the time being,” said Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer. “Politics aside, the oil market has moved past the initial shock reaction and has settled in a regime of deficit absorption by inventory draws. There is breathing room to deal with the supply shock beyond summer.”The US and Iran are closing in on a one-page agreement to end their war, a Pakistani source involved in the peace efforts told Reuters on Wednesday, confirming an earlier Axios report.Washington expects Tehran's responses on a number of critical points within the next 48 hours, although nothing has been finalised.A new round of talks between the two sides could take place either in Pakistan, which has been mediating during the ceasefire, or in Geneva.This is the closest the US and Iran have been to a peace deal since the US and Israel started a bombing campaign on February 28, media reports cited source as saying.“We will close this very soon. We are getting close,” one source told Axios.While the warring parties negotiate, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's energy shipments transited before the war, remains at almost zero.It briefly rose in late April, with crossings hitting 48 on April 27 and 41 on April 28, before falling back to between four and six daily crossings from April 29 to May 3, according to industry data.The full reopening of the waterway is expected to ease the pressure on oil markets, though the industry and analysts have said that it would take a while before normal market activity is resumed.
WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain - Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal. Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%. Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.” Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning... API":
- Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)
- Cushing -1mm
- Gasoline -6.1mm
- Distillates -4.6mm
DOE:
- Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)
- Cushing -648k
- Gasoline -2.504mm
- Distillates -1.294mm
For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude's drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API's big report)... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)... Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz. On the back of that draw, Bloomberg's energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that's helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still... Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever. The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3. US crude production continued to trend lower... WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump's 'bombastic' comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows “The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.” Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets. “When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call. “For gas, it will take much longer.”
Oil prices slide on reports US and Iran are nearing peace agreement (Reuters) - Oil prices fell sharply to two-week lows on Wednesday as optimism grew about a possible end to the war in the Middle East, with reports the United States and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal. Brent crude futures settled $8.60, or 7.83%, lower at $101.27 a barrel, having earlier dropped below $100 for the first time since April 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost $7.19, or 7.03%, to $95.08. A source from mediator Pakistan said the United States and Iran were closing in on an agreement on a one-page memorandum of understanding. Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing a new U.S. proposal. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, cited by Iran's ISNA news agency, said Iran would convey its response soon via Pakistan. Iran had said earlier that it would only accept a fair and comprehensive agreement. U.S. media outlet Axios reported that the U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours, citing sources saying this was the closest the parties had come to an agreement since the war began. "There's a growing sense that the chance of the Strait of Hormuz reopening is greater, regardless of whether we get a lasting peace deal with Iran or not," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. Both crude contracts hit their lowest in two weeks, with Brent hitting an intra-session low of $96.75 before paring losses after U.S. President Donald Trump said it was "too soon" to consider face-to-face talks with Tehran, and as a senior Iranian parliament member said the U.S. proposal was more of a wish list than a reality. The U.S. military said on Monday that it destroyed several Iranian small boats as part of efforts to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz. “A deal announcement would move futures further immediately, in fact even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices," said Rystad Energy chief oil analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu. However, the global oil flow would take time to normalize even if the strait is restored. "The six-to-eight-week lag between credible access conditions and real flow normalization is not a conservative estimate, it is a structural feature of how shipping markets work," Rodriguez-Masiu added. Crude oil supply losses from halted marine traffic through the strait since the war began in February have driven up prices, with Brent trading last week at its highest since March 2022. The Strait of Hormuz closure has resulted in a drawdown in global oil and fuel inventories as refineries try to offset production shortfalls. "A partial deal may be enough for Strait of Hormuz shipping to gradually normalize," said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, adding that if the decline holds, prices at the pump could cool over the next one to two weeks for U.S. consumers. U.S. crude and fuel inventories continued to draw down last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as countries around the globe scrambled to fill supply gaps caused by disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East. Crude oil stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 million barrels last week, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.3 million-barrel draw.
US-Iran war: Oil prices plunge, markets surge, fuelled by hopes of reopening Strait of Hormuz -Oil prices tumbled on Thursday morning amid hope that the US and Iran are near a peace deal to end a war that has stoked the biggest energy supply shock in history. Brent Crude futures sank 6.2 per cent to $US103.09 a barrel, and US WTI oil fell 5.8 per cent to $US96.77 a barrel. While Australian share futures pointed to a 0.8 per cent gain at the opening bell on Thursday. The Australian dollar also rose to a four-year high after the Reserve Bank lifted benchmark interest rates 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. On Thursday morning, the dollar bought $US72.4 cents, after hitting a high of $US72.8 cents on Wednesday evening. Iran said on Wednesday evening it’s reviewing Washington’s mooted 14-point peace proposal to potentially sign a one-page memorandum of understanding that may see the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping. US President Donald Trump hinted in a Truth Social that an initial deal may be close in a Wednesday night (AEST). “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all,” Mr Trump wrote. Wall Street investors cheered the news, as the S&P 500 rose 1.2 per cent to a record 7342 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index climbed 1.3 per cent to a record 25,650 points. Gold advanced 3.2 per cent to $US4,705 an ounce and silver jumped 5.6 per cent to $US76.70 an ounce. Iron ore prices rose to $US108.58 at their highest level since January, 2026. Risk bellwether Bitcoin topped $US81,300 for the first time since the conflict began on Thursday morning. “What continues to stand out is how well Bitcoin has been riding the coattails of risk assets. Its 11.87 per cent gain in April mirrored the S&P 500’s 10.42 per cent advance,” .
Oil Prices Extend Decline on Iran Peace Deal Optimism (DTN) -- Crude oil futures slipped Thursday morning, extending Wednesday's sell-off triggered by signs the U.S. and Iran are closing in on a peace deal which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Near 8:00 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery fell $3.17 to $98.10 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for June delivery slid $3.25 to $91.83 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery declined by $0.1228 to $3.6628 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures retreated $0.0748 to $3.3845 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.105 points to 97.77 against a basket of foreign currencies. Front-month Brent futures fell 8% Wednesday, slumping by more than 10% intra-day, after reports indicated that the U.S. and Iran were on the verge of agreeing on a framework to permanently end hostilities and for both sides to lift their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. Flows through the chokepoint, normally a fifth of global oil supply, have been at a trickle since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and at a virtual standstill since the U.S. embargo on Iranian maritime trade. Prospects of an easing of the largest oil supply disruption in history were also heightened by U.S. President Donald Trump conveying optimism about an imminent deal and declaring victory in remarks made late Wednesday, echoing statements from the heads of both the State Department and Department of Defense earlier this week. The timing of the announcement and a lack of acknowledgment from Tehran, however, has tempered market optimism. Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinpin for a two-day summit in Beijing next week. China, the main consumer of Iranian oil, has been vocal in urging restraint from the warring parties and in calling for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing enacted a fuel export ban to ensure meeting domestic demand after refiners had to cut back operations amid a lack of crude deliveries from the Middle East. Not only are the country's refiners highly dependent on crude oil from the Persian Gulf, they also, just months after Venezuela, lost another vital oil supply source in Iran. U.S. inventories were also not shielded from the Hormuz supply disruption. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported refined fuel exports soaring to a record high last week. Crude and product exports from the U.S. have surged over the past six weeks, putting additional strain on inventories. Distillate fuel stocks last week plummeted to a 20-year seasonal low, EIA data showed.
Oil prices edge lower as U.S. waits for Iran response to deal proposal -- Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, as the U.S. waits for Iran’s response to a proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. International benchmark Brent crude futures fell about 1% to close at $100.06 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures ticked 0.28% lower to settle at $94.81 per barrel. Oil was down about 5% earlier in the session on hopes that the U.S. and Iran would strike a deal. Prices turned higher after a senior Iranian official appeared to rebuff the U.S. proposal. Mohsen Rezaei, a member of Iran’s Expediency Council, said the U.S. must pay reparations for damage done to Iran, according to the state news agency PressTV. Tehran will not allow the U.S. to propose an unrealistic plan to reopen Hormuz, Rezaei said, according to Press TV. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told news outlets Wednesday that Tehran is still reviewing the U.S. proposal and would present its response to mediators in Pakistan. Baqaei said in a social media post that negotiations require “a genuine attempt to engage in discussions with a view to resolving the dispute.” Negotiations are not dictation, deception, extortion or coercion, he said. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. military offensive, known as Operation Epic Fury, “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.” If that happened, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman would “allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote in a social media post. However, the president said Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal, underscoring that Iran-U.S. negotiations to end the war remain fragile. U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran were close to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war and establish a framework for further negotiations. The deal would lift restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Axios report. Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and the U.S. would lift sanctions and release frozen funds. Scott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, said that the duration of the conflict will affect the wider economy. “The duration of the conflict and the implication that has for higher oil prices for longer is a big deal as it pertains to future growth expectations for many parts of the market, as well as how it influences the Fed thinking in terms of the interest rate dynamic,” Chronert said on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
Oil Ends Lower Despite Iran Rejecting U.S. Proposal - The crude oil market posted an inside trading day on Thursday and ended the session in negative territory even after the market reversed course on a Wall Street Journal report stating that Iran rejected the U.S. proposal and that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted its restriction on U.S. military access to bases and airspace. In overnight trading, the market traded lower on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could bring a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran were moving towards a limited, temporary agreement to halt their war. The oil market traded back below the $90.00 level and posted a low of $89.85 early in the morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range as traders awaited for developments on whether Iran would agree to the U.S. proposal. There was a report from Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya news channel that said understandings had been reached to ease the U.S. blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and another by Israel’s Channel 12 that said Iran had agreed to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country. However, the market later bounced off its low and retraced its losses on a Wall Street Journal report of Iran rejecting the U.S. deal as unrealistic. The crude market rallied to a high of $97.46 in afternoon trading. The June WTI contract settled down 27 cents at $94.81 and the July Brent contract settled down $1.21 at $100.06. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 3.1 cents at $3.8166 and the RB market settling down 33 points at $3.4560. Bloomberg reported that there is uncertainty whether there will be enough jet fuel in Europe ahead of the summer travel season. Among the uncertainties are how quickly and fully the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and, in the meantime, to what extent Europe can secure replacement supplies. According to Energy Aspects, if the waterway remains largely shut, the region’s stockpiles of jet fuel and kerosene stand to deplete at a rate of 230,000 bpd this quarter, which is about double Italy’s entire demand. According to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data, a series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totaling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump. The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the U.S. administration to warn staff against using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway. U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that Iran appears to have cut back oil production by 400,000 bpd and is likely to reduce it more as its storage units fill. A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has cut Tehran’s oil exports, stranding a growing stockpile of crude on tankers as Iranian storage sites run out of space. Analytics firm Vortexa said just a handful of carriers carrying Iranian crude have left the Gulf of Oman between April 13th and 25th. That’s down over 80% from a comparable period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels.
Oil prices gain on renewed US-Iran hostilities— Oil prices rose on Friday (May 8) after renewed fighting broke out between the US and Iran, threatening a shaky ceasefire and dashing hopes for progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for oil and liquefied natural gas. Brent crude futures were up 67 cents (S$0.85), or 0.67 per cent, at US$100.73 a barrel by 6.50am GMT (2.50pm SGT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude futures rose by 45 cents, or 0.47 per cent, to US$95.26 a barrel. The benchmarks were up more than three per cent at the market open. The gains snapped three days of decline on reports this week that the US and Iran were close to agreeing to a peace deal that would end the fighting but put off larger issues around Iran's nuclear programme. For the week, both contracts are still set to fall about six per cent. "The market is on the cusp of a complete breakdown," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. "Price formation is no longer anchored in a pragmatic reading of the war's trajectory or the physical realities in the Strait of Hormuz." Friday's jump in prices followed Iran's accusations that the US violated their month-long ceasefire, while the US said its strikes were retaliatory after Iran fired on US Navy vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Iran's military said the US had targeted an Iranian oil tanker and another ship, as well as civilian areas in the Strait and on the mainland. Despite the renewed combat, US President Donald Trump told reporters later on Thursday the ceasefire was still in effect. "The US administration continues to oversell the prospects of a thaw, and an optimism-biased market buys into it," Vanda Insights' Hari said. "Curiously, each time, the rebound is gradual and incomplete, making the head fakes at least somewhat effective." The exchange of fire happened as Washington awaited Iran's response to the latest peace proposal, which did not tackle contentious issues such as the US demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies before the war began on Feb 28. "On the supply front, the picture remains tight," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating oil price trades totalling US$7 billion ahead of key Iran war-related announcements by Trump, Reuters reported on Thursday. Most of the trades involved short positions, or bets on prices falling, placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange before Trump statements announcing attack delays, the ceasefire or other changes to Iran policy that led to a decline in oil markets.
Oil Steadies as US Sees Ceasefire in Place After Clashes -- Crude oil futures steadied Friday morning after renewed fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces halted a three-day decline fueled by prospects of an imminent peace deal and a gradual easing of the supply disruption. Near 8:05 a.m. EDT, ICE Brent for July delivery was up $0.52 to trade near $100.58 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for June delivery rose $0.19 to $95.00 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for June delivery advanced $0.0239 to $3.8405 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures edged higher $0.0004 to $3.4564 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.110 points to 97.835 against a basket of foreign currencies. Despite the current ceasefire, U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday. Both sides claimed to have responded in retaliation, while earlier reports suggested the U.S. military carried out attacks on Iranian ports. Abu Dhabi, meanwhile, said it intercepted a wave of Iranian drones and missiles. U.S. President Donald Trump said shortly after the clash that the ceasefire remained in place, calling the U.S. strikes a "love tap." Tehran, meanwhile, said it considered the U.S. "aggression" a breach of the ceasefire. Trump's comments helped cool the brief price rally sparked by the fresh outbreak of fighting, and oil and product futures were still on track for a steep weekly decline, the first in three weeks. Front-month Brent and WTI contracts were as of Friday morning eyeing a 7% week-on-week drop. The now 10-week-old conflict has led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, depriving the world of around a fifth of petroleum liquids and LNG flows, sparking an unprecedented rally in crude futures, which soared to their highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also caused a rapid drawdown in global inventories, which have fallen from five-year highs at the beginning of the year to the lowest since 2018. The U.S. Energy Information Administration earlier this week reported that domestic distillate fuel oil stocks have slumped to a 20-year seasonal low.
Oil Jumps After Renewed US-Iran Fighting, Then Pares Gains - (Reuters) – Brent crude futures jumped as much as 3% on Friday, a day after the U.S. and Iran traded air strikes, but pared gains as traders hoped for a longer pause in the fighting that has shut shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures settled at $101.29 a barrel, up $1.23 or 1.23%, after rising as much as 3% during the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished at $95.42 a barrel, up 61 cents, or 0.64%. Both contracts were settled with weekly declines of more than 6%. “We’re treading water here, rightfully so,” . “We’re on the cusp of a breakthrough in negotiations or we’re on the cusp of a renewal of the fighting. We’ve been here a lot.” “There is a sense in the market that there is going to be an agreement and we’ll get the next phase which would be 30 days to hammer out an agreement (between Iran and the U.S.),” Throughout the day, traders felt like they had been swatted back and forth like a tennis ball. “We’re still playing the headline-o-rama game,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “Ship movement in the Persian Gulf is going about as well as can be expected. We’re kind of working around the edges.” U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in the Gulf, and the UAE came under renewed attack as Washington awaited a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. U.S. President Donald Trump later on Thursday told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange. However, on Friday, Trump renewed an ultimatum demanding Iran give up its nuclear ambitions. “How quickly can supply be returned from Gulf states, what will the state of inventories be as we approach peak gasoline season, and what sanctions would look like post-settlement are all worthy of thought. But none can be addressed until there is a long-term solution to hostilities,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. “The U.S. administration continues to oversell the prospects of a thaw, and an optimism-biased market buys into it,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights. “Curiously, each time, the rebound is gradual and incomplete, making the head fakes at least somewhat effective.”
Oil price bets ahead of Iran war news totalled $7bn, shows reporting - A series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by US President Donald Trump, according to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data. The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the US administration to warn staff against using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters in April, although the CFTC has yet to officially confirm a probe is underway. Reuters could not establish who placed the bets and whether they originated in the US or elsewhere. They included short positions, or bets that prices would fall, for derivatives including ICE, CME crude, diesel and gasoline futures. The bets took place on two major exchanges that host benchmark global oil and fuel futures trade: the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Both exchanges declined to comment. The CME is investigating the trades, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. The well-timed trades have triggered calls from legal experts and lawmakers for regulators to investigate whether they were based on inside information or leaks. Traders first spotted unusual trades on March 23. The trades were executed minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, triggering an oil price fall. The same pattern repeated on April 7, before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran that triggered a fall of as much as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent futures. It happened again on April 17, when Iranian officials and Trump spoke about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and then again on April 21, when Trump extended the ceasefire. Reuters and other media reported those trades on the most actively traded front-month contracts for the two global crude benchmarks, Brent LCOc1 and West Texas Intermediate CLc1. The value of those bets on those four days in March and April stood at around $2.6 billion, according to Reuters initial calculations. The US Justice Department, CFTC and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, a further analysis of trading data across exchanges and contracts showed traders executed similar bets at exactly the same dates and times for European diesel and US gasoline futures as well as longer-dated contracts for Brent and WTI, bringing the total to around $7 billion, based on Reuters calculations. A sell bet — or short selling — means the person executing the trade borrows the derivative from a counterparty, sells it and later buys it back more cheaply when the price falls, keeping the remaining cash as profit. On March 23 and on April 7, 17 and 21, oil prices plunged by over 10%. Reuters calculations show that a short seller with $7 billion could have made hundreds of millions of dollars in profits, depending on the timing of the bets. The trades look "well informed" as they preceded major announcements, said Adi Imsirovic, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and a veteran oil trader. US authorities, such as the CFTC, can access exchange data to trace who placed the trades and investigate if it decides to, he added. On Thursday, ABC reported the US Department of Justice was investigating $2.6 billion in oil trades related to the Iran war. The DOJ was not immediately available for comment. The CFTC's enforcement director said in March the agency was aware of speculation regarding insider trading in CFTC-regulated markets and was "watching". "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who helped design the modern system of setting oil prices at pricing agency Platts in the 1990s. Brent crude and low-sulphur gasoil futures trade on the Intercontinental Exchange, while West Texas Intermediate crude and gasoline futures trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group. On March 23, Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure at 1105 GMT. LSEG data shows that between 1049 and 1050 GMT that day, traders placed bets on 20,000 lots of Brent and WTI futures. The selling was spread across the first, second and third month contracts, worth some $1.35 billion, plus an additional $122 million in ICE gasoil — diesel — futures LGOc1, LGOc2, LGOc3, and $81 million in US gasoline futures RBc1, RBc2, RBc3, all worth a total $2.2 billion. "Those quantities are not going to escape scrutiny," said Robert Frenchman, a lawyer at Dynamis LLP in New York, who has previously worked on white-collar crime and insider trading cases. Trump's March 23 ceasefire announcement triggered a decline in crude futures of as much as 15%, one of the largest intraday drops on record. The announcement also sent gasoline and gasoil futures down around 12%. On April 7, sell orders on oil and gasoline prices worth $2.12 billion took place between 1944 and 1945 GMT, well after the market settled, a time when volumes are usually thin. Minutes later, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. On April 17, nearly $2 billion in Brent, WTI, gasoil and gasoline futures were sold at 1224-1225 GMT, minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Hormuz would reopen, followed by multiple social media posts by Trump and US officials. On April 21, some $830 million worth of Brent and WTI contracts were sold just 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.
Cargo ship attacked near Strait of Hormuz: What to know -A commercial cargo ship transiting near the Strait of Hormuz said it was attacked early Sunday, the Associated Press reported, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center, escalating tensions in one of the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoints as U.S. and Iranian negotiators struggle to keep ceasefire talks alive amid the Iran war.The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow passage through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply moves. Any attack on commercial shipping there threatens global energy markets, insurance rates, and the stability of maritime trade.There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which is the first reported in the region since April 22, when a cargo ship reported being fired upon, according to the UKMTO.The unidentified ship, which was heading north off the coast of Sirik, Iran, was attacked Sunday by “multiple small craft,” according to the UKMTO. All crew members were unharmed and the vessel remained operational.Iranian patrol boats are small and hard to detect and have attacked several ships in the region. Last month, President Donald Trump ordered the military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait. Iran denied the attack, the semiofficial Iranian outlets Fars and Tabnak reported, per the AP, and said a passing ship had been stopped for a documents check as part of monitoring.The threat level in the region remains critical as Iran has effectively restricted traffic through the strait by targeting or threatening vessels in recent weeks.Iranian officials have repeatedly asserted control over the strait and have insisted that vessels not linked to the U.S. or Israel may pass only if they pay a transit fee—a position that challenges long‑standing international norms guaranteeing freedom of navigation, the AP reported.The latest incident unfolded as Tehran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest response to its proposal for ending the war, while stressing the talks do not involve nuclear issues, but do include an end of the U.S. military’s blockade of Iranian ports. Trump said Saturday he was reviewing the proposal but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal, writing on Truth Social that Tehran has “not yet paid a big enough price.”Meanwhile, commercial operators have already rerouted dozens of tankers and container ships to avoid the strait, citing rising insurance premiums and the risk of miscalculation between U.S. and Iranian naval forces.Shipping analysts note even a single attack can have outsized consequences. Freight companies often respond by slowing transit, rerouting vessels, or pausing operations entirely—decisions that ripple through global supply chains. Energy traders were already bracing for volatility after repeated closures and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the war.
South Korean Cargo Ship Damaged as Hormuz Maritime Crisis Deepens - Palestine Chronicle - A South Korean-flagged cargo vessel was reportedly damaged late Monday while anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, amid growing regional tensions and competing US-Iranian claims over maritime security. According to South Korean officials, the vessel HMM Namu sustained what was described as an “external impact” at approximately 8:40 p.m. local time while anchored outside the port limits of Umm Al Quwain. The ship carried 24 crew members, including six South Korean nationals and 18 foreign crew members. No casualties were reported. The South Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries said an explosion was observed on the port side of the vessel’s engine room after information was relayed from a nearby ship. Shipping company HMM confirmed that a fire broke out following the incident. The incident came as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations warned Monday that the maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz “remains critical” due to ongoing military operations in the region. The advisory urged vessels transiting the area to carefully assess risks before passage. Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced a naval initiative called “Project Freedom,” aimed at escorting foreign commercial vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump framed the operation as a humanitarian effort to assist neutral vessels affected by the ongoing regional crisis. Iranian officials strongly rejected the American initiative, insisting that Iran alone is responsible for securing the strategic waterway. Ali Abdollahi warned that any foreign military force attempting to enter or approach the Strait without coordination would face attack. He stated that “the US military and any foreign armed forces will be attacked” if they attempt to approach the Strait, while also warning regional US allies against involvement in any escalation. Iranian officials further stressed that all maritime traffic must coordinate with Iranian authorities before crossing the waterway. Meanwhile, Fars News Agency reported that an American frigate was struck by two Iranian missiles after allegedly ignoring repeated warnings near the port of Jask. According to the report, the vessel was attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz in violation of Iranian maritime regulations and was forced to halt and retreat after sustaining damage. No independent confirmation of the alleged strike or potential casualties has yet emerged.
Iran Says US Bombed Cargo Vessels, Not IRGC Boats, and Killed Five Civilians - Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that a US attack in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday hit cargo vessels, not boats belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), contradicting claims from US Central Command.CENTCOM said that its forces destroyed six Iranian naval boats that attempted to interfere with commercial shipping, and President Trump later put the number of boats that were sunk at seven.An Iranian military source told Tasnim that after an investigation, Iran found that no IRGC “combat vessels were hit” and that the US targeted two boats that were traveling from Khasab, a port city in Oman, to the coast of Iran, and said the attack killed five civilians.“The investigation revealed that US forces had attacked and fired on two small cargo boats transporting goods belonging to civilians. The boats were traveling from Khasab, along the coast of Oman, towards Iranian shores. The attack resulted in the deaths of five civilian passengers,” the source said.So far, the US hasn’t responded to the Iranian allegations, and during a press briefing on Tuesday morning, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stuck to CENTCOM’s account, describing the vessels the US military targeted as “six attack boats” that he said were “dealt with before they were any real threat to the American military vessels they were approaching.”The incident on Monday came after President Trump announced that the US would “guide” commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, a military escalation he dubbed “Project Freedom.”
Iranian Media: Attack on UAE Oil Facility Result of US 'Adventurism' in the Strait of Hormuz - Iranian media reported on Monday that the attack on oil facilities in the UAE’s port of Fujairah was the result of US “adventurism” in the Strait of Hormuz.“Iran had no pre-planned intention to attack the Fujairah oil facilities,” an Iranian military official told the Iranian broadcaster IRIB. “The incident resulted from US military adventurism to create an illegal passage through restricted areas of the Strait of Hormuz. US must be held accountable,” the official added. The comments suggest that the strikes on the Fujairah oil facilities were Iran’s response to the US’s new attempt to get commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, though so far there’s been no official comment from Tehran about the attacks on the UAE. The UAE said that its air defenses “engaged” 19 Iranian missiles and drones on Monday, and, according to sources speaking with CNN, an Israeli Iron Dome system that was secretly deployed to the Gulf Arab state was used to intercept projectiles. At least three people, Indian nationals, were injured by the attacks on the Fujairah oil facilities.President Trump announced on Sunday night that US forces would “guide” commercial ships out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command claimed that two US Navy destroyers transited the strait and enabled two US-flagged commercial ships to also make the passage. the Iranian Navy said that it fired missiles and drones at US warships, and CENTCOM also claimed that its forces destroyed six Iranian boats, which was denied by Iranian officials.The attacks on the UAE would mark Tehran’s most significant response yet to US military escalations since the ceasefire ended the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran.“Iranian analyst tells me that Tehran’s warning shots at US warships and the strikes on the UAE reveal Iran’s new posture: If Trump plans to restart the war, Iran will not wait for Trump to do so before it retaliates. It will strike preemptively in a measured way to deter Trump,” Trita Parsi, an Iran expert and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, wrote on X..
Iran's Foreign Minister Says No Military Solution To Hormuz, Warns US and UAE Against a 'Quagmire' - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that the flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday show there’s no “military solution” to the crisis and warned the US and the UAE against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock,” the Iranian diplomat added.The incidents on Monday, which involved the US and Iran trading fire and Iranian drones and missiles targeting the UAE, came after Iran submitted a new proposal to the US through Pakistan to bring a permanent end to the conflict.Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that Tehran was reviewing the US response to the proposal, but then Trump announced a new US military operation to “guide” commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that Trump went ahead with the escalation because he was fed up with the stalemate with Iran. One source close to the president told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that the US military operation was the “beginning of a process that could lead to a confrontation with the Iranians.”The source suggested the purpose of it could be to create a situation to frame Iran as the aggressor, saying that the “humanitarian” mission means “if the Iranians do something, they will be the bad guys and we will have the legitimacy to act.”
Iran Denies Attacking UAE, Warns against Zionist Military Presence - Palestine Chronicle -- Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, denied Tuesday that Iran had carried out any missile or drone operations against the United Arab Emirates in recent days. Zolfaghari said that if such operations had taken place, Iran would have announced them “firmly and frankly,” describing statements issued by the UAE Ministry of Defense as “completely false and entirely baseless.” The denial came after Emirati authorities claimed Monday that UAE air defenses intercepted incoming Iranian missiles and drones. The Iranian military spokesman warned Emirati officials against allowing their country to become “a den for the Americans and Zionists and their forces and military equipment.” He accused the UAE of facilitating the presence of US and Israeli military assets in the Gulf region and said Abu Dhabi was participating in “treacherous media attacks” and spreading false accusations against Iran. Zolfaghari stated that Iran had thus far exercised restraint “for the sake of security and out of consideration” for Muslims living in the UAE. He warned, however, that if any operation were launched from Emirati territory against Iranian islands, ports, or coastal areas, Tehran would respond with what he described as a “crushing and regrettable response.” Meanwhile, the naval command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps renewed warnings to all vessels intending to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian naval authorities said ships must use only the officially designated maritime corridor previously announced by Tehran, warning that any deviation would be considered unsafe and could prompt military action. According to Iranian state media, Tehran has officially launched a new mechanism to regulate maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the system, ships intending to transit the Strait will receive regulations and instructions through the official address “info@PGSA.ir” and must obtain transit authorization before passage. Iranian officials described the framework as part of a broader effort to establish what they called a “new equation” governing security and navigation in Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said developments in the Strait demonstrate that “there is no military solution to the crisis,” describing US President Donald Trump’s maritime initiative “Project Freedom” as a “project of stagnation.” Meanwhile, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said the “new equation” in the Strait of Hormuz “is being established,” adding that Washington “cannot tolerate the current situation, while Iran has not yet begun.” According to Bloomberg, hundreds of ships were seen gathering near Dubai as maritime traffic adjusted to the new Iranian navigation measures.
'We Need People To Come Back': Dubai's Tourism Industry Reels As Foreigners Flee Dubai is facing an existential crisis with the US and Israeli war on Iran forcing tourism numbers to fall sharply, with widespread hotel closures and job losses decimating the global tourism hotspots' hospitality sector. On Monday, Dubai Airports reported that first-quarter passenger traffic was down by at least 2.5 million from the same period in 2025, with March seeing a 66 percent drop in passenger numbers as travelers chose to steer clear of the Gulf. The company did not specify forecasts for this year but on Saturday, in a bid to kickstart tourism, the UAE announced that all air travel restrictions that were put in place after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that house or cooperate closely with US forces had been lifted. In a post on their official X account, the Civil Aviation Authority wrote: "Our decision came following a comprehensive assessment of operational and security conditions, in coordination with the relevant authorities". The statement was clearly meant to relay confidence to international travelers, especially after several European airlines announced that they would be suspending flights to the Middle East. Workers and business owners in Dubai, who spoke to the Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity due GCC-wide restrictions on public statements about the effects of Tehran’s attacks, say it will still take some time to see if the announcement will restore confidence among travelers and investors. Charity, a Kenyan hotel worker said the mid-priced hotel she works at was definitely affected by the 1.4 million people who travelled through the UAE over the first two weeks of March. During the Muslim month of Ramadan, when Iranian missile and drone attacks were at their worst, the hotel, part of a US-based chain, was full of stranded passengers who would meet with Emirates Airlines representatives in the lobby. During the month, the hotel's pool was closed to guests and by the final days, guests staying in the higher floors of the 20-floor building were moved to the lower floors as a precautionary measure. After that, though, she said "things really slowed down for a few weeks". She said she hoped the announcement would provide some assurance to travelers. "We'll see over the next week if people really start to come back," she said while helping a long-time American traveler. "We need your people [foreign tourists] to come back," she added. So far, even longtime passengers say there has been a noticeable shift in the mood at Dubai International, which has been the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic for 12 consecutive years. Samina, a South Asian NGO worker who travels between South Asia, the Gulf and North America, said the change was particularly noticeable in her most recent trips over the two months. "Coming in, it's empty," she said of Terminal 3, home of Emirates Airlines. "Terminal 1 and 2 are ghost towns," she said of the buildings that are home to other international carriers and FlyDubai, the UAE's budget airline. She said international airlines suspending flights to the region have definitely taken a toll on traffic, "Every time you get in, it's all the same transit passengers." According to Dubai Airports, only 51 out of 90 airlines have resumed their operations at the airport, with European and US airlines facing difficulties securing insurance cover due to government travel advisories For its part, Dubai is working hard to support and reassure its residents. Travelling around the city, there is an abundance of UAE flags outside homes and businesses and on digital signs and billboards along the highways. At the City Walk shopping center there are massive electronic signs thanking UAE residents in Arabic and English. Pictures of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are emblazoned along major roads with the statement: May our nation remain in God’s protection". Other signs show Emirati families saluting the flag with the same words. However, longtime residents and business owners say the impact of the intercepted missiles and drones was felt almost immediate. Tatiana, a Russian national who runs a logistics company for businesses looking to setup shop in the Gulf, and she said even she was shocked at how quickly the mood shifted for existing and prospective businesses. "Within the first two weeks people [said] it's no longer worth [living here]. They weren't scared per se, they just felt like it's no longer worth it". "Businesses were suddenly liquidating their assets." She said her family was now looking at options in Europe to gradually shift to. Antoine, an editor who helps train amateur writers said one of his clients who works at an advertising agency was left with the burden of those liquidations. "She was in charge of finding 1,000 workers in the UAE to let go of," he said. Antoine was particularly struck by the fact that even an advertising firm would be so immediately impacted. "You'd think advertising would be a war-proof industry," he said. Tatiana said her work has been particularly affected by the attacks. "Our whole business is predicated on assuring people that the UAE is a safe, convenient place to do business," she said. Her statement is almost identical to what Arjun, one of the 3.5 to 4.3 million Indian residents of the UAE, said outside a late evening screening of the Michael Jackson biopic. Arjun said he was happy to see the screening at near capacity, hoping it was a sign of a gradual return to normal. "The entire ethos of Dubai as this place free from conflict was shaken," he said.
Iran academic Mahdieh Esfandyari: Enemy confronts Iranian civilization, not just Islamic Republic– Mahdieh Esfandyari, a graduate of Al-Zahra University who was detained in France for approximately 14 months, has stated that the enemy's issue is not merely confrontation with the Islamic Republic, but rather a confrontation with Iranian civilization itself. Speaking on the sidelines of a ceremony held in her honor at Al-Zahra University on Sunday, Esfandyari told IRNA: "As you know, we are in a situation where a serious confrontation exists. It has become clear that the issue is not just confrontation with the Islamic Republic, but also confrontation with Iranian civilization – a civilization in which science and the university are among its main pillars." Esfandyari, who was arrested by French security authorities for posting content opposing the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, spent several months in prison. She was released based on an understanding between Tehran and Paris, under which France committed to her full release in exchange for the release of two French citizens. Regarding attacks on academic institutions, she said: "Targeting scientific and university centers, and the martyrdom of students, shows that the enemy fears a conscious, educated, and knowledgeable Iranian — because these very people, through growth and development, bring pride to the country." Reflecting on her personal experience abroad, Esfandyari cautioned against Western claims about women's freedom: "Freedom has various dimensions, and one of the most important is independence in choice and the ability to defend individual rights. As an Iranian woman who chooses to wear the hijab, I faced restrictions outside the country that contradict these claims." She added, "If freedom means the right to choose one's clothing, then this right must be respected for everyone. Iranian girls should not think these approaches are meant to secure their rights. In some cases, this issue is used as a tool to weaken Iranian identity and civilization."
Exclusive: Iran launches new maritime mechanism for vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz - Iran has officially launched a new mechanism for governing maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Press TV has learned. Under the newly implemented system, all vessels intending to transit the Strait will receive an email from the official address info@PGSA.ir outlining the rules and regulations for passage. Ships are required to adjust their operations according to this framework and obtain a transit permit before crossing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoints. The initiative, described as a sovereign governance system, is now operational in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of all internationally traded oil passes. Iranian armed forces have placed the Strait of Hormuz under strict control, blocking all ships associated with the US and Israel following the launch of their war of aggression against the Islamic Republic on February 28. Tehran had signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait after the US and Israel agreed to include Lebanon in a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire agreement that helped halt the aggression against Iran. However, Iranian authorities declared the waterway closed again as Washington and Tel Aviv continued violating the terms of the ceasefire. A draft law now advancing in Iran's Parliament would impose a total ban on any ships associated with Israel, while vessels linked to the US and other hostile countries would face severe restrictions. The legislation also establishes a tolling system for the passage of non-hostile vessels. Tensions have escalated sharply in recent days after the United States launched an operation on Sunday aimed at breaking Iran’s control over the Strait. Iranian forces have repeatedly warned US warships against approaching the strategic waterway.
IRGC warns ships must exclusively use designated routes in Hormuz Strait - The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has warned ships seeking to pass the Strait of Hormuz to exclusively use routes designated by Iran as safe. The IRGC said in a Tuesday statement that it would deal decisively with ships avoiding the Iranian-designated corridors and sailing through other parts of the Strait of Hormuz. “Any deviation by vessels to other routes will be unsafe and will be met with a decisive response from the IRGC Navy,” said the statement. “…the only safe route for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the corridor previously announced by Iran.” The warning came a day after Iranian and US naval forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump announced he had ordered an operation to break restrictions imposed by Iran on cargo transit via the Strait of Hormuz. Several ships and other port facilities were hit during the exchange of fire, while both sides claimed they had successfully defended their military positions in the Persian Gulf. However, experts have warned that US interference with the status quo in the Strait, which has been in place since the early days of the US-Israeli aggression against Iran in early March, would seriously escalate the situation, prompting a resumption of military confrontation that was halted as part of a ceasefire reached in early April. The IRGC on Tuesday refuted US claims that two ships bearing American flags had passed the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of Washington’s renewed effort to open the waterway, which is responsible for a fifth of global oil demand. Iran has allowed a limited number of ships to pass the Strait over the past weeks, and the transit has happened through two entry and exit lanes designated by Iran as safe. The corridors are located in the northernmost part of the Strait near the island of Larak, with authorities warning that other parts of the Strait may be laden with mines.
China Wants Iran War End, Pushes 'Immediate' Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is currently in Beijing meeting with his Chinese counterpart, FM Wang Yi, and the timing of the visit sends a resounding message to Washington and the West. The highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is still scheduled for next week, expected for May 14-15, though there has been ample speculation the ongoing events of the unpredictable Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis could derail the trip at the last minute.Of course, Iran and the question of peace will be high on the agenda as Trump visits - and currently it seems the White House is desperate to set in place some kind of final offramp, given the Tuesday night 'pause' in Project Freedom operations in the Gulf.Upon the occasion of Araghchi's visit, Foreign Minister Wang has taken the opportunity to again call for the immediate opening of the strait. And the Iranian top diplomat seconded this at a moment the US Navy has imposed an effective blockade of Iranian ports, which of course severely impacts Iranian oil going to China. "Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible," Xinhua quoted Araghchi as saying. Wang during the meeting also called for a "comprehensive ceasefire," saying his country is deeply distressed by the war. Xinhua further quoted him as saying:"The international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait, and China hopes the relevant parties will respond as quickly as possible to the strong calls from the international community." The two sides are clearly coordinating their messaging to some degree, given Wang also expressed that China "appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons."Tehran has for years insisted its program is only for peaceful nuclear energy development and for domestic needs, but has amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury made clear it will never given up its right to enriched uranium. It has said this is as "sacred as the soil" and sees it as a matter of national sovereignty. This in the face of US demands that it transfer all nuclear material out of the country. More out of Beijing on Wednesday: “We believe that a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay, a resumption of hostilities is inadvisable, and persisting with negotiations is particularly important,” Wang told Araghchi at the start of their meeting, according to footage released by Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV....Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to press Iran to ease its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes. As for what China gains in this high-level diplomacy and engagement with Tehran at a moment it could face more US and Israeli bombs, Associated Press presents the following: Some noted that the Iranian foreign minister visited at Beijing’s initiative. "It’s China exercising their leverage... to summon the Iranian foreign minister," said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University. "By holding the talks with the Iranians, you can't fault for them not putting in any effort," Hoo said.
World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines - Long after the Iran war is just a bookmark in the history books, one distinct consequence will persist: much of the world, at least the part that does not fall under the Chinese sphere of influence, will do everything it can to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and failing that, have a Plan B. Just like when the Biden admin weaponized the US Dollar in 2022 by booting Russia from SWIFT after the Ukraine war, and in the process started the biggest gold and bitcoin rally in history as the rest of the world parked its savings in non-USD assets, so the world's most important oil choke point will never again be viewed again in the same way after Iran launched dozens of rockets at the ships transiting it. This shift in perception is what James Thorne, chief market strategist of WellingtonAltus, called "Iran’s Historic Mistake"; he explains it as follows: By weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Tehran meant to punish America. Instead, it exposed every power built on imported energy, vulnerable sea lanes, and the delusion that globalization repealed geography. China is exposed. Europe is exposed. Britain is exposed. Iran has created a world where hard resource power decides outcomes. And the punchline:Iran’s mistake is that once Hormuz becomes structurally unreliable, the world builds around it. That means bypass corridors, revived pipeline politics, and urgent planning for routes linking Aqaba to Mediterranean outlets near Gaza and the long-stalled Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline. The old energy order is cracking. The UAE’s OPEC exit signals cartel discipline giving way to national advantage under pressure. The full note can be found here, and we didn't have long to wait to see the world it predicted begin to emerge. Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan agreed to buy an additional 20 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as Tokyo continues pursuing alternative supply channels amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan used 2.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, the economy ministry reports. Based on this average, the additional 20 million barrels from the UAE could cover eight to nine days' worth of demand, so much more is coming. The deal was finalized Tuesday after Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's minister of economy, trade and industry, met with the Emirati industry minister in Abu Dhabi. Akazawa told reporters after the meeting that he had requested increased oil supplies for Japan. Roughly 40% of Japan's crude oil imports comes from the UAE. The Middle Eastern country, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, intends to gradually increase oil production at its own discretion, which could lead to more cooperation with Japan. Japan will pick up the Emirati oil at the port of Fujairah on the UAE's eastern coast, which lies on the Gulf of Oman, allowing for crude exports without going through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump eager for off-ramp in war on Iran, but Netanyahu has him trapped: Former official Donald Trump is eager to find an off-ramp, declare "victory," and end the war against Iran – but Benjamin Netanyahu is not, leaving Trump trapped, says a former chief of staff to the US Secretary of State. In an interview with the Press TV website, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson – former chief of staff to Colin Powell from 2002 to 2005 – said that as tensions with Iran simmer following the recent US-Israeli war against the country, a complex picture is emerging of a Washington administration caught between tactical necessity and political traps. He said the central question surrounding the White House’s strategy is whether the Trump administration is using the lull in hostilities to rebuild its military capacity. “There is an ongoing effort to replace critical munitions, expedite repair of warships in maintenance, and alert and prepare more land forces for possible action,” he said, adding that this logistical surge extends to Tel Aviv, where efforts are underway to replenish munitions and call up more reservists. As for the Trump administration’s self-declared “maritime blockade” of Iranian ports, the timeline is elastic, Wilkerson said, adding that the US can sustain the pressure indefinitely, but only as long as necessary to secure an agreement with Tehran on what constitutes the end of war. “However, this is where the internal rift becomes critical. President Trump is eager to find an exit, to declare ‘victory’, and to end the conflict, but Netanyahu is not. So, Trump is trapped,” he said. The former official noted this dynamic suggests that the duration of the blockade depends heavily on the outcome of upcoming Israeli elections and who ultimately emerges as the winner there. For now, the US finds itself locked into a maritime strategy whose off-ramp is controlled by Israel with conflicting war aims, he told the Press TV website.
Israeli Troops Attack Catholic Convent in Southern Lebanon Town of Yaroun - The Israeli military attacked and seriously damaged a convent in the southern Lebanese town of Yaroun, leading to international condemnation from Christian groups. The convent belonged to the Greek Catholic order “Basilian Salvatorian Sisters,” and was known for supporting schools in the local community.The order said they had been told the building had been destroyed by military bulldozers, and said that the two sisters who would normally be living at the site had been evacuated in the course of the war and were not present at the time. French charity L’Å’uvre d’Orient condemned the destruction as a “deliberate act,” and part of an Israeli war that is inflicting systematic damage with an eye toward preventing displaced civilians from returning home.The IDF denied the incident initially, insisting the convent was perfectly safe, but later admitted that they had damaged it as “Hezbollah infrastructure,” claiming that Hezbollah had fired rockets from inside the convent, but providing no evidence that was actually the case.The Catholic Church in Lebanon rejected the IDF’s claim. “We are against all practices against places of worship and churches. These are places to spread peace, love and education. These are not military bases,” said Rev. Abdo Abou Kassm, director of the Catholic Center for Information, according to the AP.The IDF further claimed they had no idea that it was a religious building when they started damaging it, because there were “no external signs indicating it was a religious building.” That even the IDF’s image of the building shows what appears to be a statue of the Virgin Mary, and other images show crosses on the top of the building, undercuts that claim.
IDF Promises Review as Soldier Photographed Disrespecting Statue of Virgin Mary - The Lebanese Christian village of Debel became a major point of contention in the ongoing Israeli war last month, when images emerged of an IDF soldier smashing a statue of Jesus Christ with a sledgehammer. The IDF insisted it was “contrary” to their values and ultimately reported two people involved were jailed.It was not the last time the Christian village was a topic, as about a week later video of Israeli forces destroying the solar panels powering Debel’s water supply came out, and again an investigation was promised.Today, a new incident has emerged, with Israeli broadcaster KAN showing a photo of an IDF soldier disrespecting a statue of the Virgin Mary, once again believed to have been shot in Debel. The soldier was shown smoking a cigarette and holding a second cigarette in the mouth of the statue.The IDF said that the photo is being “looked into” but so far is declining further comment. Given how quickly the previous statue incident escalated into an international incident, however, they likely won’t be able to avoid comment forever.This is just the latest incident involving Debel, and indeed the latest of even more incidents involving Lebanon’s Christian community, as over the weekend Israeli forces had similarly been reported to have attacked and largely destroyed a Catholic convent in Yaroun.The IDF narrative has been that they are only targeting Hezbollah, and not the civilian nor religious sites across occupied southern Lebanon. This claim is being constantly undercut by reality on the ground, and while no physical damage appears to have been done with today’s statue incident, unlike the prior one, the fact that such things keep recurring suggests an ongoing problem with Israeli occupation forces.
Israel Confirms 500 Strikes Against Lebanon Since ‘Ceasefire’ Went Into Effect - Overnight, the Lebanese town of Habboush was targeted in Israeli airstrikes, causing significant damage. In the morning, Israeli artillery was actively shelling the town, causing even more destruction in residential and commercial parts of town. Habboush is just one of several towns reporting roughly the same situation, active Israeli attacks, in spite of what is notionally an active ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. In practice, very little fire seems to actually be ceased. The Israeli Army has reported that it has hit an estimated 500 areas in Lebanon since April 17, when the ceasefire initially went into effect. Though the ceasefire has been extended before and on paper goes through much of May, the fighting and the firing seems to be a constant in southern Lebanon.The problems are myriad, but the most obvious are the widespread displacement of Lebanese civilians and the massive amount of destruction being caused to civilian property and religious sites. The Council of Melkite Greek Catholic Bishops in Lebanon yesterday issued a statement calling on the government and UN to do something about protecting such buildings. Israel has repeatedly said they don’t target religious buildings, which sounds good in theory, but repeated IDF destruction of plainly religious sites is the daily reality on the ground. The bishops’ statement comes in the wake of a weekend incident in which Israeli forces attacked and badly damaged a convent in Yaroun. The IDF denied destroying the convent, showing an image that they said was the building still standing and largely unharmed. A Christian leader from Yaroun, however, said that the building shown was actually the archbishopric and clinic that were next door to the convent, which was effectively totally destroyed with bulldozers.The UNHCR representative in Lebanon, Karolina Billing, warned that Lebanon was facing a “deeply fragile moment” and that despite the ceasefire, and an additional 380 Lebanese have been killed in Israeli strikes.The number of displaced continues to rise. The International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) estimated 1.2 million Lebanese, about 20% of the population, have been displaced by the war, though the Lebanese government has suggested it could be as high as 1.6 million, amounting to over a quarter of Lebanon’s entire population.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich Says Son Asked Him to Leave Some of Lebanon for Him to Destroy - In an interview with Israel’s Channel 7 TV, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reported that his son has asked him not to finish destroying Lebanon before he has the opportunity to get involved and do some destroying of his own.The hawkish Smotrich said he told his son not to worry and that there would be plenty of destruction for everyone to get involved in.The younger Smotrich was initially intended to be deployed into Lebanon when the invasion began in March, but his unit was targeted along the border by anti-tank fire and he sustained what were at the time described as “light injuries” just days into the conflict.In the interview, Smotrich said his son is recovering quickly from those injuries, and is seemly eager to participate in some of the attacks in Lebanon. There is currently a state of ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, though Israeli forces continue to carry out daily attacks on southern Lebanon. Smotrich has repeatedly advocated annexing the whole of southern Lebanon, declaring that everything south of the Litani River should be part of Israel. In recent comments he has suggested that Israel’s assorted wars need to ultimately end with annexations of Gaza, the entire West Bank, and substantial parts of both Syria and Lebanon.He had brought attention to his son’s potential involvement in the war in the early stages of the conflict, touring the Israel-Lebanon border and meeting with troops, including his son, while promising to see destruction of Lebanon on a level of that seen in the Gaza Strip.
Israel Prepares for Resumption of Full-Scale Bombing Campaign in Gaza - The Israeli military is preparing for the resumption of its full-scale bombing campaign in Gaza, Middle East Eye reported on Monday, citing Israel’s Army Radio. The Israeli military has constantly violated the US-backed ceasefire deal that was signed in early October 2025, with daily attacks across Gaza, killing at least 832 Palestinians, according to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry.The reporting from Israeli media suggests Israel is preparing a major escalation, back to the levels of the height of the genocidal war, when dozens or hundreds of Palestinians were being killed every day.According to the Army Radio report, senior Israeli military officials are pushing for the “resumption of fighting,” saying that the “best time to defeat Hamas is now.”The report cited Hamas’s refusal to disarm as the reason to restart the full-scale bombing campaign, as Hamas has insisted it will not discuss the issue until the first phase of the ceasefire is actually implemented. Middle East Eye reported a day earlier that the US and Israel had rejected a proposal from Hamas and other Palestinian factions to link disarmament to a path toward a Palestinian state and security guarantees.The Army Radio report acknowledged that Israel recently escalated its airstrikes in Gaza and pushed the “yellow line” further west, giving the IDF control of nearly 60% of Gaza, two clear violations of the ceasefire deal. At the start of the truce, Israeli troops occupied about 53% of Gaza.
Russia and Ukraine Declare Ceasefires That Will Begin on Different Days - Russia said on Monday that it would observe a ceasefire with Ukraine on May 8 and May 9 to observe Victory Day, when Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory against Nazi Germany in World War II, but it’s unclear if the truce will hold, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by declaring a ceasefire that will start earlier.“As of today, there has been no official appeal to Ukraine regarding the modality of a cessation of hostilities that is being claimed on Russian social media,” Zelensky wrote on X. “We believe that human life is far more valuable than any anniversary ‘celebration.’ In this regard, we are announcing a ceasefire regime starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5–6. In the time left until that moment, it is realistic to ensure that silence takes effect. We will act reciprocally starting from that moment,” the Ukrainian leader added.Russia’s ceasefire declaration came with a warning that if Ukrainian attacks targeted Moscow during Victory Day celebrations, the Russian military would respond with major attacks on the Ukrainian capital, a response to Zelensky suggesting Ukraine could hit a Russian military parade that will take place in Moscow on May 9. “Should the Kiev regime attempt to implement its criminal plans to disrupt the celebration of the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a retaliatory, massive missile strike on the center of Kiev,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.“Russia, despite its capabilities, has previously refrained from such actions for humanitarian reasons. We warn the civilian population of Kyiv and employees of foreign diplomatic missions of the need to leave the city promptly,” the ministry added.On Monday, a Ukrainian drone hit a high-rise apartment building in Moscow. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, 26 Ukrainian drones targeted the Russian capital from May 2 to May 4. Heavy Russian attacks hit Ukraine on Monday, killing at least six people in Kharkiv and two in the Kherson region, according to Ukrainian officials.Ukraine has also stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting infrastructure on the Black Sea, causing massive fires and raining oil down from the sky.
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