week ending Aug 24

Trump says Fed should cut rates by at least 1% ‘with perhaps some quantitative easing’ - President Donald Trump raised his demands Monday on the Federal Reserve, calling for the central bank to cut interest rates by a full percentage point and to restart its crisis-era money-printing program. In a pair of tweets again aimed at getting easier monetary policy, the president said the Fed has been hampered by a “horrendous lack of vision” and said it should institute 100 basis points worth of reductions in its benchmark rate. Criticizing the Fed is nothing new for Trump, who has stated his desire for a weaker dollar and interest rates that are more competitive with other countries around the world. The Fed approved a quarter-point cut at this July meeting, that has not stopped Trump from wanting more. “Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world,” he said. Trump also has been hammering away at what he calls “quantitative tightening,” or the Fed’s efforts to reduce the amount of bonds it was holding. The Fed acquired the assets during three rounds of buying during and after the financial crisis, in an effort to tamp-down long-range interest rates and to steer money towards riskier assets like stocks and corporate bonds. In previous shots at the Fed, he has claimed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be 10,000 points higher and the economy would be growing at better than a 4% rate if not for the rate hikes and unwinding of the balance sheet. His latest tweet again calls for “some” quantitative easing, which is sometimes referred to as “money printing” though it doesn’t involve the actual creation of paper currency. Markets widely expect the Fed to approve another 25 basis point cut at its September meeting, and probably one more before the end of the year.

The Fed's Math Problem -- The Fed has a math problem and so do markets. Everyone from the president on down is demanding rate cuts, lots of them. “Mid-cycle” adjustment Fed Chair Jay Powell called the July rate cut and it’s bought the Fed precious little as markets sold off in the wake off more trade tensions and yields continued to plummet. And now markets demand more. Lots more. A 50b rate cut appears to be the bare minimum markets demand for September. And what markets are currently pricing in is anything but a “mid-cycle” adjustment:  That’s nearly a 100bp rate cut over the next year. President Trump of course wants a 100bp now AND some QE sprinkled on top of that:  Leaving a discussion about the economic wisdom of such demands at this time aside for the moment, let’s look at the implications of Mr. Trump’s demand, and, on a longer time frame, the market’s demand for 100bp in rate cuts.  See the problem is the Fed has very limited ammunition vis a vis previous cycles and that fact seems to escape everyone.  Between December 2015 and December 2018 the Fed raised rates 9 times from zero bound. Historically speaking the weakest rate hiking cycle ever. In 2018 expectations were still high for further rate hikes in 2019. In fact Goldman Sachs had projected 5 rate hikes for 2019 as late as November of 2018.  Those days are long gone as global yields have collapsed and economic data has continued to show significant slowing. Hence the rate cut in July:  And therein lies the math problem. With one rate cut already under its belt the Fed now only has 8 rate cuts to work with before being right back at zero bound. Cutting by 50bp in September would leave the Fed with only six 25bp rate cuts to play with. Cutting another 50bp over the next year would leave the Fed with only four 25 bp rate cuts implying the Fed would have given back nearly half of its entire rate raising cycle in just 12 months which took it 3 years to accomplish. In 2001 the Fed had to embark on a rate cutting cycle of 550bp to stop the unfolding recession. In 2007 it took 500bp. This time the Fed has started its rate cutting cycle from a 225-250bp basis.  So I must ask: With such limited ammunition to work with and so much ammunition required to actually stop a cycle turn, why would the Fed waste more rate cuts with markets still near all time highs and unemployment still at 50 year lows? Why risk a 50bp rate cut and be left with only six 25 bp rate cuts in the coffer? Recession risk after all is rising and even Pimco is acknowledging this. Unless the ultimate future is negative rates into the negative 200bp-250bp territory zone, which would imply a full out disastrous crisis, then perhaps markets are expecting way too much from Momma Fed at this stage.

Powell Issues Gag Order To Fed Presidents- Report --  Following the recent dismal communication failures first by NY Fed president John Williams, and following that, Powell's own notorious July 31 "mid-cycle adjustment" press conference, a recurring lament among the investment community has been for the Fed to just keep its mouth shut, instead of continuing to yap and confirming that it is absolutely clueless about the economy and the future. In a surprising twist, the Fed may actually be listening.  According to the Spectator, chair Powell has banned any public appearances by any Fed Board member, noting that "appearances at conferences have been canceled, all scheduled interviews have been abandoned and any comments on or off the record are outlawed."  This unprecedented action, the Spectator reports, is a reflection of two pressures.

• First, economic indicators increasingly suggest the US is heading into a recession with the Dow plunging 800 points on Wednesday.
• Second, relations with the White House have reached a new low, with president Trump pinning the success of his presidency upon a strong economy as a recession - Trump believes - would destroy his reputation and kill his reelection chances. As a result, Trump has - correctly - blamed the current woeful state of the global economy on the Fed. The problem is that Trump also "owned" the same state of both the economy and the market for the past two years, so any recession will be entirely his, just as Yellen (and Bernanke) intended, and shift attention away from the Fed.

Continuing a series of outbursts aimed at the Fed, Trump again lashed out at Powell (and the Fed) claiming they are responsible for the slide in the stock market. To be sure, Trump has been doing this for a long time, realizing he will need a foil if when the market and economy crash, and has - for better or worse - picked the Fed as the scapegoat.

FOMC Minutes: A Wide Range of Views  - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30–31, 2019. A few excerpts: In their discussion of monetary policy decisions at this meeting, those participants who favored a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate pointed to three broad categories of reasons for supporting that action.

• First, while the overall outlook remained favorable, there had been signs of deceleration in economic activity in recent quarters, particularly in business fixed investment and manufacturing. A pronounced slowing in economic growth in overseas economies—perhaps related in part to developments in, and uncertainties surrounding, international trade—appeared to be an important factor in this deceleration. More generally, such developments were among those that had led most participants over recent quarters to revise down their estimates of the policy rate path that would be appropriate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.
• Second, a policy easing at this meeting would be a prudent step from a risk-management perspective. Despite some encouraging signs over the intermeeting period, many of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook that had been a source of concern in June had remained elevated, particularly those associated with the global economic outlook and international trade.
• Third, there were concerns about the outlook for inflation. A number of participants observed that overall inflation had continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective, as had inflation for items other than food and energy. Several of these participants commented that the fact that wage pressures had remained only moderate despite the low unemployment rate could be a sign that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is appreciably lower than often assumed. Participants discussed indicators for longer-term inflation expectations and inflation compensation. A number of them concluded that the modest increase in market-based measures of inflation compensation over the intermeeting period likely reflected market participants' expectation of more accommodative monetary policy in the near future; others observed that, while survey measures of inflation expectations were little changed from June, the level of expectations by at least some measures was low..

A couple of participants indicated that they would have preferred a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at this meeting rather than a 25 basis point reduction. They favored a stronger action to better address the stubbornly low inflation rates of the past several years, recognizing that the apparent low sensitivity of inflation to levels of resource utilization meant that a notably stronger real economy might be required to speed the return of inflation to the Committee's inflation objective. Several participants favored maintaining the same target range at this meeting, judging that the real economy continued to be in a good place, bolstered by confident consumers, a strong job market, and a low rate of unemployment. Finally, a few participants expressed concerns that further monetary accommodation presented a risk to financial stability in certain sectors of the economy or that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting could be misinterpreted as a negative signal about the state of the economy.  Most participants viewed a proposed quarter-point policy easing at this meeting as part of a recalibration of the stance of policy, or mid-cycle adjustment, in response to the evolution of the economic outlook over recent months.

Powell says there’s no ‘rulebook’ for trade war, pledges to ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain economy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated his pledge Friday to keep the economic expansion going while acknowledging that tariffs and other factors are causing growth to slow. Less than an hour after the speech, President Donald Trump blasted Powell on Twitter, referring to him as “our enemy.” Powell, while not saying specifically where he thought rates should go, promised that the Fed “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” a phrase he has used several times in the recent past. Powell also said in his annual remarks at the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium that the “economy is close to both goals” of the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and price stability. “Our challenge now is to do what monetary policy can do to sustain the expansion so that the benefits of the strong jobs market extend to more of those still left behind, and so that inflation is centered firmly around 2 percent.” He also outlined the challenges the Fed faces and indicated that for he and his fellow officials there are “no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation.” “While monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade,” he said in prepared remarks. “We can, however, try to look through what may be passing events, focus on how trade developments are affecting the outlook, and adjust policy to promote our objectives.” He did say the Fed is looking at ways to address developments in a landscape that has changed significantly since the expansion began a decade ago. “We are examining the monetary policy tools we have used both in calm times and in crisis, and we are asking whether we should expand our toolkit,” he said.

White House has reportedly discussed a Fed governor rotation to curb Powell’s power - The White House is reportedly discussing a variety of options to try to juice U.S. economic growth ahead of the 2020 election, including a rotation of Federal Reserve governors that would make it easier to check the power of Chairman Jerome Powell. Other ideas pitched by top economic advisors range from a currency transaction tax that could devalue the dollar and make U.S. exports less expensive as well as reducing the corporate tax rate to 15%, according to interviews with more than 25 current and former administration officials conducted by The Washington Post. The proposals come as top administration officials grow nervous about a growing number of internal reports suggesting that the American economy could pull back over the next 12 months and hamper the president’s path to reelection, the report said. The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. The report came just before Powell was set to give a major policy speech on Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where investors are hoping the Fed chief will signal further rate cuts are ahead. The Post said White House aides do not have a firm idea of which of these policies President Donald Trump would seriously consider. The chance to check the Fed chair’s influence over the U.S. economy could be especially enticing to Trump, who appointed Powell and has used Twitter to lambaste him for almost his entire tenure. Central to the president’s criticism of the Fed is the level of interest rates in the U.S., which remain high when compared with those of several European countries like Germany. Trump argues that lower interest rates abroad help weaken foreign currencies and make imports more attractive to American consumers, accentuating the current U.S. trade deficit. A currency transaction tax could also in theory juice American exports. “Doing great with China and other Trade Deals. The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed,” Trump tweeted on Wednesday. “We are competing with many countries that have a far lower interest rate, and we should be lower than them. Yesterday, ‘highest Dollar in U.S.History.’ No inflation. Wake up Federal Reserve.”

Powell stops short of committing to rate cuts, and Trump fumes (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will “act as appropriate” to keep the U.S. economy healthy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, remarks that did not say how fast it might cut interest rates, drawing fire from President Donald Trump. The Fed chair, under pressure from Trump and markets to cut rates, characterized the U.S. economy as in a “favorable place” but facing “significant” risks, especially what Fed officials have described as the harmful effects of the White House’s trade war with China. There are “no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation,” Powell said in a closely watched speech at an annual Fed retreat in Jackson Hole, a valley set against the Grand Teton mountains. Powell added that monetary policy “cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade.” Powell did note that rate cuts in the 1990s helped keep an expansion intact. But the overall tone of his statement, a reflection of divisions within the Fed itself over what to do next, may disappoint investors expecting the central bank to cut rates at its September meeting and possibly several more times this year. The central bank reduced its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in July for the first time in more than a decade in what Powell referred to as a mid-cycle adjustment. Trump, who has demanded rate cuts, condemned the Fed for doing nothing “as usual” and said “our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.” “My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel or Chairman Xi,” Trump added, referring to China’s leader Xi Jinping.

Trump tweets: ‘Who is our bigger enemy,’ Fed Chairman Powell or Chinese President Xi? - President Donald Trump on Friday again ripped into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, comparing him to Chinese President Xi Jinping.“My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel or Chairman Xi?” Trump tweeted, misspelling Powell’s last name.Trump tweeted his attack not long after the text of Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, was made public.Powell on Friday promised to take the steps needed to maintain U.S. economic growth as fears about a potential recession grow. In his remarks to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, the central bank chief said the economy has “continued to perform well overall” but acknowledged “trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown.”As Trump frets about the possibility of a recession, he has lashed out at both Powell and the news media. The president has argued the Fed chairman — whom he appointed — raised interest rates too swiftly and has not moved quickly enough to cut them.Trump has contended the U.S. economy is strong and only has one problem in the central bank, which he claims has held back growth. The president has repeatedly said his trade war with China will not hold back the economy despite many major economists, members of the Fed and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office disagreeing with him.

Hawkish Shocker From Fed's Harker Inverts 2s10s Curve, Sends Stocks Tumbling - Moments after yields tumbled across the curve following the first contractionary US Mfg PMI print in a decade, which sparked fears that a US recession has finally arrived bond traders were whipsawed by comments from (non-voting) Philly Fed president Patrick Harker, who in an interview with CNBC said that he doesn't see any need for further stimulus at the moment."We are roughly where neutral is," Harker added and noted that they saw the US-China trade dispute as an "economic headwind."While "It’s hard to know exactly where neutral is" Harker said that "we’re roughly where neutral is right now. And I think we should stay here for a while and see how things play out."Asked if he sees a case for further stimulus, Harker replied “No. Not right now... The labor markets are strong, inflation is moving up slowly — but with the last CPI print, it was a good print."His unexpectedly hawkish comments echoed remarks from the Fed's Esther George who said it was not time for accommodation as the labor market remains strong. Here are some other soundbites from his interview with Steve Liesman:

• "Yield curve is only one of many signals."
• "Trade issue makes business decisions difficult."
• "Growth now is exactly what we had anticipated last year."
• "No need for another rate cut, central bank should stay here for a while."
• "Trade resolution would boost growth."

 The Ice Age Arrives- Average Sovereign Yield Outside The US Turns Negative For The First Time Ever -  Last Friday afternoon, when what few traders were not on vacation were planning the venue of their evening alcohol consumption, we showed a remarkable analysis by Bank of America, which found that yields on the $27.8 trillion non-USD global investment grade bond market had declined to just 16bps and that the US share of global investment grade yields has climbed to 94%. But the punchline is that, as we said, "non-USD sovereign yields had dropped to just 2bps, meaning that any day now foreign sovereign debt may have no yield at all on average." Fast forward to Monday, when following another surge in global bond prices, Bank of America refreshed its analysis, and foudn that the striking trends noted last week had become even more fascinating, to wit yields on the $27.8tn non-USD global IG fixed income market had declined to just 11bps (down from 16bps just one day earlier)... ... and the US share of global IG yields climbed to 95%... ... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US, something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them." .@Jkylebass on CNBC: “US rates are going to zero because they are the only DM yields with an integer in front of them” - btw this echoes Pimco comment from earlier. In a race to negative/ zero what do you own?https://t.co/RIBt6cauTT — Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) August 20, 2019 But the biggest shock is that for Albert Edwards, vindication is here if only outside the US for now: as per the BofA update, non-USD sovereign yields on $19 trillion in global debt - which was a paltry but positive +0.02% on Friday - have now turned negative on average for the first time ever at -3bps.

Kyle Bass says US interest rates will follow the rest of the world to zero — ‘This is insane’- Central banks are just getting started with monetary easing, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass said, predicting U.S. interest rates will keep falling and follow global interest rates all the way down to zero. “We’re the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields. We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here,” Bass, founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, told CNBC’s David Faber on Tuesday. Bass’ comments come as several central banks around the world have implemented stimulative policies to the point where around $15 trillion of global debt trades with a negative rate. Germany and France’s respective 10-year yields are in negative territory along with Japan’s benchmark rate. China has also implemented stimulative measures to mitigate slowing economic growth. “This is insane. The Japanese are going to keep going. The Chinese print money like it’s a national pastime today. Europe is going to restart QE,” Bass said. “QE” refers to quantitative easing, a monetary stimulus tool used by central banks. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month, citing “global developments” and “muted inflation.” Market expectations for lower rates in September are also at 100%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Bass noted U.S. rates will fall to zero as politicians disregard budget deficits while economic activity in Europe and China slows. However, these measures could have dire consequences.

PIMCO Starts Dumping Bonds, Fears Helicopter Money Around The Corner - Amid a collapse in global bond yields (to record lows) and soaring aggregate volumes of central-bank-created negative-yielding debt, at least one big bond shop is dumping sovereigns. “We’re a lot more defensive,” warned PIMCO's Daniel Ivascyn, group CIO at the massive bond manager, noting that after the best year-to-date performance since 2003, the fund is paring its positions in government debt on fears that a breakthrough in US-China trade talks could trigger a violent sell-off.  “Even if we get a narrow trade agreement [between the US and China] we could see a pretty powerful snapback in yields.”  However, as The FT reports, while PIMCO is lightening up on their positions in the UK and European bond markets, it is reducing exposure to the US government bond markets less.   “We like the US market more - it still has more room to rally in a global flight to safety,” Mr Ivascyn said.  “But it wouldn’t take much of an uptick in inflation to cause a meaningful repricing.” Ivascyn may appear more constructive on growth and inflation but, as FT notes, he tempers his enthusiasm by noting that,“We think we’ll at best get a partial agreement on trade, and this friction will be with us for a long time.” And one could argue bonds are more in line with the depressionary signals than stocks currently...

 Recession risks rising. But do central banks have any tools? - Recession indicators are blinking worldwide, with financial markets rattled this week by bad news from all corners: Germany, China, Argentina, and even the United States, where bond interest rates “inverted” in what many see as a signal of economic trouble ahead. For decades, an inverted yield curve, when shorter-term bonds yield a higher interest rate than long-term ones, has been seen as a likely recession indicator. What’s different this time is that interest rates on all U.S. Treasury debts are so low that there’s little room for the Federal Reserve to deploy interest rate cuts to stave off a recession. “Monetary policy I think is impotent” in the current environment, says Gary Shilling, who heads an economic forecasting firm in Springfield, New Jersey. Ultra-low interest rates have become a feature of the world economy since the Great Recession. It’s a conundrum that few view as benign, and the coming year could test whether the global economy can weather hard times amid financial conditions for which there is little precedent. In much of Europe, for example, interest rates on public debt have actually been negative for several years – forcing savers to pay a fee to lend (or store) their money. Recession or not, policymakers seem engaged in a kind of perpetual war to keep economic growth afloat. “Some of the recession fears are a little bit overblown in my view, but that’s not to say that we’re complacent about the risks,” says Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Perhaps the overlooked risk – and nowhere is this more pronounced than in the United States – is that the ability of government to have a robust response either through fiscal spending or a central bank ... is limited.”  Recessions often happen partly because central banks tighten monetary policy too much, boosting short-term interest rates. Meanwhile long-term rates decline as real-world investors see warning clouds and buy bonds. The result is an inversion of bond rates for a time, before central banks start slashing their short-term lending rates to offset a downturn. On Wednesday, the U.S. bond market inverted with the 2-year Treasury note yielding more than the 10-year Treasury note. Economists are closely watching how long that situation will last. The past three times the bond market endured a sustained inversion, recession followed within about a year.

In Unprecedented, Shocking Proposal, BOE's Mark Carney Urges Replacing Dollar With Libra-Like Reserve Currency -  After Jerome Powell's neutral-to-slightly-dovish-but-mostly-boring speech on Friday morning, investors could be forgiven for suspecting that this year's Fed-sponsored gathering in Jackson Hole might be disappointingly dull (especially with all that's going on in Trump's twitter feed, the escalating trade war and escalating geopolitical unrest).  Then along came former Goldman banker and current (outgoing) BOE governor, Mark Carney, who in his lunchtime address laid out a shocking, radical proposal - perhaps the most stunning thing to ever be unveiled at Jackson Hole - urging to replace the US Dollar with a "Libra-like" reserve currency in a dramatic revamp of the global monetary, financial and economic order. While it was unclear if Carney was focusing on Libra as the new reserve currency, or simply was hoping to find something against which the dollar could be devalued, the proposal was clearly shocking as it suggests that the central bank quiet acceptance of cryptocurrencies (especially in Japan) has been what many have speculated all along: a "currency" against which fiat money can be devalued in hopes of sparking fiat hyperinflation that inflates away record amounts of fiat debt. Of course, such a new system would bring about the end of US hegemony, and effectively end the dollar-based global financial system, dramatically scaling back the US's influence in the global economy, and making rising powers like China and Russia critical players an increasingly multipolar world.... especially if they propose a gold-backed dollar alternative to the world. That this would quickly emerge as the new reserve currency - together with whatever stablecoin/crypto central bankers deign to be the dollar's replacement - goes without saying. Carney's proposal comes just a few months before he's due to step down from his position leading the Bank of England. We note that, because it is a well known fact that central bankers tend to speak the truth once they have quit their position of power and influence. Yet it is quite shocking for Carnery to do so while still in office; the bottom line, Carney sounded like nothing less than an Austrian-school economist, who admits that the existing neo-liberal/Keynesian system has collapsed.

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2% - From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 2.1% qoq saar for 3Q. 2Q GDP growth is likely to be revised modestly lower in the second release to 1.8% from the advance estimate of 2.1%. [Aug 23 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 23 estimate].  And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. [Aug 16 estimate] (next update on Aug 26th)CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.

U.S. yield curve: Invert, steepen, repeat – (Reuters) - A swift steepening of the U.S. 2-year/10-year yield curve after it inverted last week may have given investors hope that the United States can escape recession. They should probably take a breath. History indicates that the reprieve may be brief, before a more sustained, severe flip occurs. A catalyst for another inversion might happen later this week if the Federal Reserve's minutes on its July 30-31 meeting on Wednesday or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic conference were to suggest U.S. policy-makers are not fully on board for an all-out rate-cutting mode, which could drive short-term rates higher and flatten the curve. Here is an explainer on the yield curve. The yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted for the first time since 2007 last week, rattling investors who saw this as an omen that a U.S. recession is coming. While the 2-and-10-year inversion has gone away for now, the previous three bouts of inversion on this part of the yield curve have shown a pattern: a steepen and then return to a more sustained or deeper inversion more than once before a recession hits. The inversion between three-month Treasury bill rate and 10-year Treasury yield - which economists and some Fed economists believe is a more reliable recession indicator - has been in place since May. That curve inverted in March, steepened in April and then inverted again. While the stock market reacted with fear after the inversion, there was skepticism from some that a recession would necessarily follow. The yield curve retraced its inversion and stocks rebounded on Monday. “We would caution against seeing the inversion of the yield curve as an infallible predictor of an economic contraction or a bear market,” UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele said. Currently, some investors said the latest episode of the inversion is overstating the chances of a recession. They argue the Fed’s openness to lower borrowing costs would prolong the current economic expansion, which became the longest on record last month.

 Yield curve inverts once again on fears the Fed won’t save the economy from recession -  The main part of the yield curve inverted once again on Thursday as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded under that of the 2-year note, the third time the recession indicator has been triggered since last Wednesday. The move came after Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther Georgeand Philadelphia President Patrick Harker told CNBC they don’t see the case for additional interest rate cuts following the central’s bank quarter-point reduction in July.  Shortly after 10 a.m. ET the yield curve turned negative and has remained that way. As of 10:19 a.m. ET the 2-year Treasury yield was at 1.601% while the 10-year yield was below it at 1.597%.  George told CNBC’s Steve Liesman that her sense on monetary policy is that“we’ve added accommodation and it wasn’t required in my view.” “With this very low unemployment rate, with wages rising, with the inflation rate staying close to the Fed’s target, I think we’re in a good place relative to the mandates that we’re asked to achieve,” George added.  Harker, meanwhile, said the Fed should wait and see for “a while” before acting.  Those comments — made from the Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — aggravated Wall Street’s fears that the Fed will be too slow to juice the economy should GDP growth contract. Though investors remained confident the central bank will cut again in September, expectations that the Fed will cut by another 25 basis points waned Thursday morning. Traders were pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut following Harker’s and George’s comments, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, down about 8 percentage points from Wednesday. Meanwhile, a reading from IHS Markit showed that the manufacturing sector was in a contraction for the first time in nearly a decade. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policymaking arm, cut interest rates by 25 basis points late last month thanks to “global developments ” and what it described as “muted inflation.” George, however, was one of two voting policymakers who advocated to keep rates unchanged.

Trump praises Germany’s negative yields but doesn’t mention that its bond sale failed - President Donald Trump lauded Germany’s ability to sell bonds with no interest Wednesday, but he didn’t mention that Germany failed to sell more than half of what it brought to auction. The German government sold 869 million euros of 30-year bonds with a negative yield, for the first time ever, adding to the world’s growing $15 trillion in existing negative yielding debt. The bund, set to mature in 2050, has a zero coupon, meaning it pays no interest. Germany offered 2 billion euros worth of 30-year bunds, and investors were willing to buy less than half of it, with a yield of minus 0.11%. Trump said Germany was able to get investors to pay it for its debt, while the U.S. is a “more important” credit but must pay interest. “WHERE IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE?” Trump asked in the tweet, in his latest criticism of the Fed and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. “It remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of some push back on the part of investors to this insanity of negative rates. We’ll have to see for now,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. ”‘People said ‘I can’t buy this,’ so that’s why they sold less than half of what they were hoping for ... They were hoping to sell 2 billion euros worth. That’s why we call it a failed auction.” Boockvar said Trump should take a harder look at Europe, where the European Central Bank is expected to soon resort to cutting rates to even more negative levels and other forms of asset purchase stimulus. “He should look at their bank stocks. Wanting to emulate the European banking system, which has choked on negative rates, is not well thought-out,” he said.

Trump Administration Considering Issuance Of 50, 100-Year Treasuries -- The last time the US was seriously considering issuing ultra-long dated bonds - those with a maturity of 50 and 100 years - was back in late 2016 and early 2017, when yields were near the record lows hit in recent days. As we reported back in November 2016, shortly after Steven Mnuchin was confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, the former Goldman banker proceeded to roil the bond market when he told CNBC he would look at extending the maturity of future Treasury issuance, hinting at 50 and 100 Year bonds, which promptly sent long-term US bond yields surging by the most since the turmoil following Trump’s election victory."I think interest rates are going to stay relatively low for the next couple of years." Mnuchin told CNBC. “We’ll look at potentially extending the maturity of the debt, because eventually we are going to have higher interest rates, and that’s something that this country is going to need to deal with." Ironically, with that statement, Mnuchin quickly sent yields spiking higher, although courtesy of foreign buyers these were promptly renormalized. Asked if he would consider maturities of 50 or even 100 years, ultra-long issuance that has become increasingly popular in Europe in recent years as interest rates plunged to record lows as recently as July, Mnuchin said: “We’ll take a look at everything.”Well, it's that time again. As Bloomberg first reported, the Treasury’s Office of Debt Management is again conducting a broad outreach to Wall Street to refresh its understanding of market appetite for a potential Treasury ultra-long bond, according to a statement Friday. Specifically, the US Treasury is once again looking at the market interest in 50- or 100-year bonds, although it has not yet reached any decision whether to issue such a product.  The news of possible ultra-long supply promptly sent the 30Y yield to session highs moments after the announcement:

Trump White House reportedly looks at payroll tax cut -- Top White House officials have started to float a payroll tax cut as a potential means to stem an economic downturn, The Washington Post reported Monday.. A White House official later pushed back on the report in a statement to CNBC. “As Larry Kudlow said yesterday, more tax cuts for the American people are certainly on the table, but cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time,” the official said. The report comes as President Donald Trump in recent days has lashed out over media reports about growing recession fears. He has hammered into the Federal Reserve and claimed concerns about a slowdown are fueled by Democrats and a sympathetic media ahead of his 2020 reelection bid. (The bond market flashed a reliable signal of a potential recession last week). “Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by [Chair] Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election,” the president wrote in a tweet Monday. The Trump administration has not yet decided whether to push Congress to pass a temporary payroll tax cut, according to the newspaper. Still, the talks show the officials around Trump have worried about the possibility of a slowdown. It is doubtful the Democratic-controlled House would even pass a payroll tax. The 6.2% tax helps to fund Medicare and Social Security, two massive programs Democrats have repeatedly warned against altering.

Trump considers tax cuts to stimulate economy - Donald Trump, the US president, said he was exploring a range of options for new tax cuts to stimulate the economy, revealing the administration’s fears of a slowdown in growth that would undermine his re-election bid next year.  Speaking at the White House on Tuesday, Mr Trump said he had been considering reductions in capital gains taxes as well as payroll taxes as he weighed new stimulus measures with his advisers. “We’re looking at various tax reductions,” he said.  But the president cautioned that no proposal was imminent, and said the US was “very far” from a recession. “We’re in such a strong economic position. We’re right now, the number one country anywhere in the world by far . . . Europe’s got a lot of problems. Asia’s got a lot of problems,” he said. Mr Trump’s consideration of a new fiscal boost faces obstacles. Any new tax relief package would require approval by Congress, where Democrats control the House of Representatives and are likely to place roadblocks in the way of a White House proposal. Congressional Democrats have complained that big companies and the wealthy were the prime beneficiaries of Mr Trump’s income and corporate tax cuts in 2017 — and a new capital gains tax reduction would probably meet similar criticism.  Payroll tax cuts would offer greater relief to the middle class. But the levy is used to fund pension and healthcare benefits, so any reductions could raise Democratic concerns about the future of the social safety net for the elderly. “The politics between the administration and House Democrats — who are absolutely required for any legislation — are at a nadir,” Chris Krueger, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note. “Absent a more meaningful economic downturn, we believe the chances are very low.”

 Amid Recession Warnings, Trump Reportedly Considering More Tax Cuts for Rich and Corporations -   While continuing to publicly downplay warning signs that the U.S. economy is barreling toward a recession, the Trump White House is reportedly weighing a number of supposed stimulus measures, including more tax cuts for the rich and large corporations.Politico reported late Tuesday that Trump officials are considering “a cut of an additional percentage point or two to the corporate tax rate,” which the GOP tax law slashed from 35 percent to 21 percent in 2018. “That’s on top of a potential payroll tax cut,” the news outlet noted, “which the Obama administration had used to shore up the economy, and a move to index the capital gains rate to inflation, which potentially could be done through an executive order.” A payroll tax cut, which Trump on Tuesday confirmed he is considering, would temporarily boost workers’ paychecks. But, as the Washington Post reported Monday, depending on how it is designed, a payroll tax cut could “pull billions of dollars away from Social Security.”The other option Trump is considering, indexing capital gains to inflation via executive order, would primarily benefit wealthy investors. According toChye-Ching Huang of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 86 percent of the benefits would go to the top one percent. The Trump administration has been mulling indexing capital gains to inflation through executive action since last year, despite warnings the move may be illegal. As Common Dreams reported last month, a group of more than 20 Republican senators, led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), is urging the president to push ahead with the executive order.

Trump Says He Can Issue Capital Gains Tax Cut With Executive Order - Yesterday, when we reported that the White House denied the WaPo reported it was considering a cut in the payroll tax, we noted that it appeared to be just a trial balloon, with Trump gauging the market's response, especially since it was none other than Trump's predecessor, Obama, who cut it to 4.2% as a way to encourage more consumer spending during the recent economic downturn. But the cut was allowed to reset back up to 6.2 percent in 2013. Well, not even 24 hours later Trump has confirmed that he was in fact looking at a payroll tax cut, and not only that, but also a capital gains tax cut (this would be far less popular with the middle class as it would mostly affect investors): "Payroll taxes, something that we think about and a lot of people would like to see that," Trump confirmed."We’re always looking at the capital gains tax, payroll tax," Trump told reporters in his latest lenghty presser, adding "I would love to do something on capital gains," Trump says, "We’re talking about that."There was more.  Trump went so far as to say he can cut taxes by indexing capital gains to inflation without congressional approval, a move the White House has been considering for months and that would largely benefit the wealthy.“We’ve been talking about indexing for a long time,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “And many people like indexing and it could be done very simply. It could be done directly by me.” There is one problem for Trump: as discussed yesterday, such a tax cut would effectively confirm the economy was slowing, something that would go directly against Trump's claims of the "strongest economy ever" and his renewed claim today that "we are very far from a recession." And yet, with the 2s10s yield curve inverting last week recession odds soaring, Trump may have no choice.

Cheerleading for Austerity - Not content to follow a news strategy that maximizes Trump’s prospects for re-election, the New York Times leads today with a storythat combines economic illiteracy and reactionary scaremongering in a preview of what we’re likely to see in the 2020 presidential race. “Budget Deficit Is Set to Surge Past $1 Trillion” screams the headline, and the article throws around a mix of dollar estimates and vague statements about growth trends, leavened with quotes from budget scolds from both Republican and Democratic sides of the aisle.  (That shows balance, right?)  After terrorizing us with visions of a tide of red ink, the article concludes with a ray of sunshine in the form of prospects for a Grand Bargain under a lame duck Trump that would cut benefit programs like Social Security and Medicare to put us once again on a stable path. Where to begin?  Should we start by mentioning that nowhere in this lead article does it give the single most relevant statistic, the ratio of the federal budget deficit to the size of the overall economy—the money part, GDP.  The raw size of the deficit itself is meaningless, and the trillion dollar line is meaningless squared.  As Dean Baker likes to say, the article shows its respect for our powers of thought by informing us the deficit is a Very Big Number.  Scared yet?  Measurement aside, the article simply assumes that “large” deficits are unsustainable and bad, and that only irresponsible political motives prevent action on them.  In the name of a nebulous, unspecified Evil of Debt, the population of the US must be subjected to a regime of austerity, beginning with cuts in the programs many depend on to keep themselves and family members out of poverty.  Worse, it opines, Democrats will run for office next year on a platform of spending increases, demonstrating they are the party of ruin.  We can only hope, goes the argument, that they are just saying these things to get votes from the gullible public, and once in power they will join the deficit-cutting crusade.  No reason is given for the assumed Evil of Debt, and it’s no surprise, since it’s based on ignorance, willful or otherwise.  To begin with, federal debt is denominated entirely in US dollars, so servicing is not a problem.  Countries that borrow in foreign currencies, like Greece (which had no control over the euro) and Argentina, can default; that’s not a problem for the US.  Second, government debt is private wealth, and the relevant question is whether there are too many or too few government bonds in private portfolios.  If private wealth holders are satiated with public debt and prefer other securities, it would be a problem.  But that would be a world in which interest rates on the debt would be high in order to sell them, and rates are about as low as they can go without flipping negative (as they have elsewhere).

The Myth of American Military Dominance - It is now popular to talk about grand strategy. A variety of media outlets regularly publish articles about it. Think tank panels and papers frequently address it. People even talk about it on television. Loren DeJonge Schulman memorably said that it has become cool to talk about grand strategy at parties and happy hours over $8 PBR. As conversations about America’s strategic choices become more frequent, and hopefully start to have more of an impact, practitioners and academics alike need to begin to question the assumptions they make about the tools at America’s disposal. One commonly made assumption is that the United States has for decades enjoyed conventional military dominance, the ability to defeat any other actor in a conventional fight. The assumption of historic military dominance, often understood as fact, is almost entirely unsupported by meaningful evidence. While the U.S. military is unquestionably powerful, dominance cannot be measured by defense spending or even training. Dominance can only be measured through performance, and the United States’ history does not support a narrative of conventional military dominance. Because American conventional military dominance is an assumption rather than a fact, strategists need to question its validity and its importance for policy and strategy. If the common narrative proves to be unsupported, it will change America’s strategic variables.

Russia To US- No Plans To Install New Missiles Unless You Deploy First - Following the final collapse and formal pull out by both sides of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty earlier this month, which was preceded by months of threats and counter-threats between the US and Russia, Moscow says it will refrain from deploying new missiles previously banned under the treaty so long as Washington shows similar restraint. Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu made the pledge during statements Sunday. “We still stick to that. Unless there are such systems in Europe (deployed by Washington), we won’t do anything there,” he told the Rossiya-24 TV channel, as cited by Reuters. Though both sides accused the other of violating the landmark treaty signed in 1987 between Reagan and Gorbachev, Shoigu said Russia had repeatedly urged to keep the door of dialogue open. "Between February and August 2, we kept on opening doors," he noted. "We are keeping the door open. As long as the US doesn’t deploy such systems to Europe, we won’t do the same, and as long as there are no US missiles in Asia, there won’t be our missiles in the region," the defense minister said. He also claimed that Russia's Defense Ministry had issued a formal invitation for US representatives to attend a briefing on the 9M729 missile in Moscow, but that American officials refused to attend. The Novator 9M729 is precisely the missile that Washington officials have focused their charge that Moscow violated the INF on, given the land-based cruise missile is believed to have a range that falls between 500km and 5,500km - making it illegal under the terms of the treaty.

Pentagon conducts 1st test of previously banned missile (AP) — The U.S. military has conducted a flight test of a type of missile banned for more than 30 years by a treaty that the United States abandoned this month, the Pentagon said. The test off the coast of California on Sunday marked the resumption of an arms competition that some analysts worry could increase U.S.-Russian tensions. The Trump administration has said it remains interested in useful arms control but questions Moscow’s willingness to adhere to its treaty commitments.The Pentagon said it tested a modified ground-launched version of a Navy Tomahawk cruise missile, which was launched from San Nicolas Island and accurately struck its target after flying more than 500 kilometers (310 miles). The missile was armed with a conventional, not nuclear, warhead. Defense officials had said last March that this missile likely would have a range of about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) and that it might be ready for deployment within 18 months. The missile would have violated the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty of 1987, which banned all types of missiles with ranges between 500 kilometers (310 miles) and 5,500 kilometers (3,410 miles). The U.S. withdrew from the treaty on Aug. 2, prompted by what the administration said was Russia’s unwillingness to stop violating the treaty’s terms. Russia accused the U.S. of violating the agreement. The newly tested cruise missile recalls a nuclear-armed U.S. weapon that was deployed in several European NATO countries in the 1980s, along with Pershing 2 ground-based ballistic missiles,

 Why is the US preparing for nuclear war with Russia and China? - After withdrawing from the landmark Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, the United States has been barreling ahead with its preparations to fight a nuclear war with China, Russia, or both, by testing and stockpiling dangerous new weapons in a nuclear arms race. In an interview with Fox News, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the United States military is changing its focus from “low-intensity conflict,” such as the war in Afghanistan, to “high-intensity conflicts against competitors such as Russia and China.” The US tests a ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missile that was banned under the INF treaty Key to fighting such “high-intensity conflicts” is the United States’ arsenal of nuclear weapons, which Esper called “strategic forces.” “Our strategic forces are a key deterrent to nuclear war. I think a strong, reliable, capable, ready deterrent is really what prevents nuclear war from happening in the first place,” he said. In the Orwellian language of the “Defense” department, preserving “peace” is accomplished by expanding America’s “deterrent,” another name for the hellish nuclear weapons that can kill billions of people within an hour. Esper made no secret of who he is seeking to “deter,” saying “China is the number one priority for this department.” He claimed China is trying to “push the United States out” of the “Indo-Pacific theater.” The term “theater” was defined by military theorist Carl Clausewitz as “a portion of the space over which war prevails.” Esper thinks the Indo-Pacific region—home to more than half of the world’s people—is, to the surprise of its inhabitants, a military “theater,” and one over which the United States supposedly has claim, despite being located on the other side of the world. But to secure this supposedly God-given right to dominance over Asia, the United States—the only country to use nuclear weapons in World War II—is making active preparations to ring the entire Chinese mainland with nuclear-capable missiles. Missiles that could reach the Chinese mainland from places like Japan and South Korea were banned under the INF treaty, which the United States pulled out of earlier this year. The United States, Esper said, now needs “to be able to strike at intermediate ranges” to “deter Chinese bad behavior,’ as if he were talking about disciplining a child, not annihilating a country of nearly 1.4 billion people.

Trump's Silence On NK Missile Tests Leaves Kim With No Leverage, Admits WSJ -- Despite multiple provocative missile tests over the past month - with six in just three weeks, including on Friday - there's been little response from the White House. Though President Trump has lately come under fire for brushing off the tests as "just short-range" and routine, a new WSJ report acknowledges "diminished returns for a provocation the Kim regime has long deployed to coax a diplomatic reaction from the U.S. and its allies."  The Trump admin's lack of response and "consistent tolerance" for the short-range launches amid Pyongyang's flurry of muscle-flexing and photo ops, also certainly aimed at South Korea and Japan, has left the north without the desired leverage previously gained through such provocations. The WSJ report seems to further admit the unusual complete lack of response out of the White House shows a position of strength out of the administration: "The shock value from the North’s military flourishes seems to be lost on President Trump, the key figure in the cash-strapped country’s campaign to shed economic sanctions," it states. This is in stark contrast to recent editorials and statements of defense officials claiming Trump has given Kim a "free pass". Both Trump and Pompeo have expressed that they don't care about the tests so long as their not of long-range or involve nuclear tests.

Trump Reviews Controversial US-Taliban Peace Deal Which Critics Call A Betrayal --Critics are calling a Trump administration plan for a rapid US force draw down in Afghanistan which involves striking a peace deal with the Taliban a "betrayal". But administration officials have countered that this is the cost of bringing the some 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan home. Trump "has been pretty clear that he wants to bring the troops home" according to senior officials privy to ongoing negotiations.  The chief controversy behind the US-Taliban peace talks is that any deal will likely rely on the Taliban holding to counterterrorism guarantees, or that it won't attack US coalition forces; however, there's reportedly little in the impending deal which holds the Taliban to guarantees it won't attack Afghan civilians or the national army.   According to CNN: One source explained that the agreement is seen as paving the way for the US to leave the country without a high number of US casualties in the coming months.  President Trump said he had a "very good meeting in Afghanistan" in a tweet Friday, just after meeting with top national security advisers over the impending peace plan which seeks to end America's longest running war, now approaching two decades. "Discussions centered around our ongoing negotiations and eventual peace and reconciliation agreement with the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan," a White House press spokesman said of the meeting. "The meeting went very well, and negotiations are proceeding."“In continued close cooperation with the government of Afghanistan, we remain committed to achieving a comprehensive peace agreement, including a reduction in violence and a cease-fire, ensuring that Afghan soil is never again used to threaten the United States or her allies, and bringing Afghans together to work towards peace,” the statement said. CNN summarizes of the deal that it's "expected to formalize a significant withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan -- from about 15,000 troops to 8,000 or 9,000 troops -- and enshrine official commitments by the Taliban to counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, according to the multiple sources familiar with the plan." But there's fear that the Taliban is simply looking to remove the US military from the equation, and that once the US departs, the Taliban will have free reign to attack a greatly weakened Afghan national army.

U.S. In Secret Talks With Maduro’s Socialist Party Leader The United States has started secret preliminary talks via intermediaries with Diosdado Cabello, the leader of Venezuela’s Socialist party and the man considered the most powerful in the Latin American country after Nicolas Maduro, The Associated Press reported on Monday, quoting a senior U.S. administration official. The inner circle of Nicolas Maduro are looking to obtain guarantees that they won’t face punishment if they yield to demands to remove Maduro from power, the AP said in its exclusive report. According to the U.S. administration official who spoke to the AP, an intermediary in close contact with the Trump Administration met with Cabello in Caracas last month. A second meeting is being planned, too. It’s not clear if Maduro knows of and/or has endorsed such talks between Cabello and a contact linked to the U.S. administration, the AP says. An aide to Cabello, however, told the AP that Cabello is not betraying Maduro and would only hold meetings with Americans or U.S.-backed envoys or negotiators with Maduro’s permission and only if talks lead to easing of the harsh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and its vital oil industry. Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order freezing all assets of the Venezuelan government in the United States, noting the move may open space for sanctions against companies doing business with the Maduro government.

Scoop: Inside Trump’s naval blockade obsession - President Trump has suggested to national security officials that the U.S. should station Navy ships along the Venezuelan coastline to prevent goods from coming in and out of the country, according to 5 current and former officials who have either directly heard the president discuss the idea or have been briefed on Trump's private comments.  Trump has been raising the idea of a naval blockade periodically for at least a year and a half, and as recently as several weeks ago, these officials said. They added that to their knowledge the Pentagon hasn't taken this extreme idea seriously, in part because senior officials believe it's impractical, has no legal basis and would suck resources from a Navy that is already stretched to counter China and Iran.  Trump has publicly alluded to a naval blockade of Venezuela. Earlier this month he answered "Yes, I am" when a reporter asked whether he was mulling such a move. But he hasn't elaborated on the idea publicly. In private, Trump has expressed himself more vividly, these current and former officials say.

• "He literally just said we should get the ships out there and do a naval embargo," said one source who's heard the president’s comments. "Prevent anything going in."
• "I'm assuming he's thinking of the Cuban missile crisis," the source added. "But Cuba is an island and Venezuela is a massive coastline. And Cuba we knew what we were trying to prevent from getting in. But here what are we talking about? It would need massive, massive amounts of resources; probably more than the U.S. Navy can provide."

Hawkish GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, has a different perspective about the value of a show of military force. "I've been saying for months that when the Venezuelan military sees an American military presence gathering force, this thing ends pretty quickly," he told me.   In recent months, an alleged drug lord in President Nicolás Maduro's inner circle has reached out to the White House through intermediaries, according to administration officials.  Trump is deeply frustrated that the Venezuelan opposition has failed to topple Maduro — more than 3 months after a failed uprising, and more than 6 months after Trump led the world in recognizing Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

 Venezuela's Maduro confirms secret high-level talks with US officials -  The leaders of the U.S. and Venezuela have confirmed high-ranking officials from their respective governments have been engaged in talks “for months.” It comes less than three days after both Axios and the Associated Press reported that the U.S. had opened secret communications with top members of Venezuela’s socialist administration. Speaking at the White House during a meeting with his Romanian counterpart on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said: “We are talking to various representatives of Venezuela … I don’t want to say who but we are talking at a very high level.”Shortly thereafter, Venezuela’s embattled President Nicolas Maduro said during a televised address: “I can confirm that for months that we have had contact.”Maduro said the aim of discussions was to “normalize and resolve this conflict” between the two countries. However, like Trump, Maduro did not wish to disclose which officials had been engaged in the talks, citing: “various contacts through various channels.”“Just as I have sought dialogue in Venezuela, I have sought a way for President Donald Trump to really listen to Venezuela,” he added. The South American nation is currently in the midst of one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent memory, with more than 4 million people having fled since 2015 amid an economic meltdown.

Trump’s Foreign Policy: All Coercion, No Diplomacy - Matt Lee reports on the Trump administration obsessive use of sanctions:  The Trump administration is aggressively pursuing economic sanctions as a primary foreign policy tool to an extent unseen in decades, or perhaps ever. Many are questioning the results even as officials insist the penalties are achieving their aims.  It is true that the Trump administration is using economic coercion as its default approach to almost everything, but there doesn’t appear to be any diplomacy involved. There is such a thing as “coercive diplomacy,” but there is no evidence that Trump and his officials understand the first thing about it. An administration that genuinely wanted to secure lasting diplomatic agreements with other states would apply pressure only as a means to a specific, achievable goal, but with this administration they are waging purely destructive economic wars that the targeted states cannot end without capitulating. The “maximum pressure” description implies an unwillingness to relieve pressure short of the other side’s surrender.  It is not just that it is a “combination of more sticks and fewer carrots.” The Trump administration’s policies are all punishment and no reward. In the case of Iran, it could hardly be otherwise when the administration chose to penalize Iran with sanctions for daring to comply with a multilateral nonproliferation agreement. Iran behaved constructively and acceded to the demands of the P5+1 four years ago, and in return for their cooperation they have been subjected to a grueling economic war despite fully complying with their commitments. When our government punishes another state for doing what previous administrations wanted them to do, no amount of punishment could force that state to trust our government a second time. The administration approaches each case in the same way: they impose penalties, they make threats, they offer no incentives, and they make outrageous, far-fetched demands that no government would ever accept. Trump handles the trade wars in much the same way that he handles the “maximum pressure” campaigns against intransigent governments, and he fails every time because he can’t conceive of a mutually beneficial agreement and therefore refuses to compromise. Trump’s “diplomacy” is no diplomacy at all, but a series of insults, sanctions, tariffs, and threats that achieve nothing except to cause disruption and pain. Unsurprisingly, a pressure campaign that is aimed at toppling a government or forcing it to give up everything it has cannot be successful on its own terms as long as the targeted government chooses to resist, and the stakes for the targeted government will always higher than they are for the administration. In a contest of wills, the party that is fighting to preserve itself has the advantage.

State Department approves possible $8 billion fighter jet sale to Taiwan: Pentagon - (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department has approved a possible $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said on Tuesday in an official notification to Congress. The potential deal is for 66 aircraft, 75 General Electric Co (GE.N) engines, as well as other systems, the agency said in a statement, adding it served the interests of the United States and would help Taiwan maintain a credible defense. China has already denounced the widely discussed sale, one of the biggest yet by the United States to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a wayward province. It has warned of unspecified “countermeasures.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, a Republican, has welcomed the proposed sale of the Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 jets. “These fighters are critical to improving Taiwan’s ability to defend its sovereign airspace, which is under increasing pressure from the People’s Republic of China,” he said in a recent statement. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Monday that President Donald Trump notified Congress of the sale last week. Pompeo told Fox News the sale was “consistent with past U.S. policy” and that the United States was “simply following through on the commitments we’ve made to all of the parties.”

Trump Approves $8BN Sale Of F-16 Jets To Taiwan; Congress Urged To Move Quickly -Last month China's military predictably slammed Washington's recent approval to send $2.2 billion in arms to Taiwan, and now there's an administration push supported by Republicans in the Senate to "move quickly" on a proposed $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan at a moment when the next round of US-China trade negotiations hangs in the balance, as The Washington Post reports:The Trump administration is moving ahead with for an $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan despite strong objections from China, a U.S. official and others familiar with the deal said Thursday.  Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz on Friday urged Congress to move quickly with the sale given China “seeks to extend its authoritarian reach” over the region.This despite Beijing condemning any and all further weapons sales to Taiwan, which it maintains historic claims over, and taking the further significant step of threatening sanction on any US companies involved in such weapons deals.  The New York Times on Friday also confirmed the proposed F-16 plan, based on State Department statements:The State Department told Congress Thursday night, right after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had signed a memo approving the sale, officials said. Congress is not expected to object to the move. For weeks, lawmakers from both parties had accused the administration of delaying the sale to avoid jeopardizing trade negotiations or to use it as a bargaining chip. Texas senator Cruz said it is critical “now more than ever” for Taiwan's defense capabilities to be significantly increased amid threats from China.    China this summer indicated it stands “ready to go to war” if people “try to split Taiwan from the country” — this after the US approved sales of tanks and Stinger missiles to Taiwan in July. Beijing authorities also said the US and breakaway Taiwan were "playing with fire" due to their growing military ties, which the US by treaty is obligated to honor.

Trump 'not ready' for China trade deal, dismisses recession fears (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying on Sunday they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global bond markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States. “We’re doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money,” Trump said on Sunday. But he was less optimistic than his aides on striking a trade deal with China, saying that while he believed China was ready to come to an agreement, “I’m not ready to make a deal yet.” He hinted that the White House would like to see Beijing resolve ongoing protests in Hong Kong first. “I would like to see Hong Kong worked out in a very humanitarian fashion,” Trump said. “I think it would be very good for the trade deal.” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said trade deputies from the two countries would speak within 10 days and “if those deputies’ meetings pan out... we are planning to have China come to the USA” to advance negotiations over ending a trade battle that has emerged as a potential risk to global economic growth. Even with the talks stalled for now and the threat of greater tariffs and other trade restrictions hanging over the world economy, Kudlow said on “Fox News Sunday” the United States remained “in pretty good shape.” “There is no recession in sight,” Kudlow said. “Consumers are working. Their wages are rising. They are spending and they are saving.”

Trump Says U.S. Is Talking With China But Not Ready for a Deal - President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “doing very well with China, and talking!” but suggested he wasn’t ready to sign a trade deal, hours after his top economic adviser laid out a potential timeline for the resumption of substantive discussions with Beijing.Trump vowed that the U.S. was “poised for big growth” after various trade deals are reached. But speaking to reporters as he departed New Jersey for Washington on Sunday, Trump said China needs a trade agreement more than the U.S. given the relatively weak condition of the Asian nation’s economy.Trump made about 40 minutes of wide-ranging remarks after more than a week spent at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.The president tied trade negotiations with the ongoing situation in Hong Kong on-camera for the first time, saying that a deal between the U.S. and China would be harder if there’s a violent conclusion to protests there because of concerns raised by U.S. lawmakers. He tweeted last week that “of course China wants to make a deal. Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!”Trump also pushed back on media reports this weekend that the Commerce Department is poised, as soon as Monday, to renew Huawei Technologies Co.’s temporary general license to buy supplies for the U.S. “Huawei is a company that we may not do business with at all,” Trump said, calling the Chinese company a “national security threat.” “We’ll see what happens. I’m making a decision tomorrow,” Trump said.

U.S. President Trump does not want to do business with China’s Huawei (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he did not want the United States to do business with China’s Huawei even as the administration weighs whether to extend a grace period for the company.Reuters and other media outlets reported on Friday that the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to extend a reprieve given to Huawei Technologies Co Ltd that permits the Chinese firm to buy supplies from U.S. companies so that it can service existing customers.The “temporary general license” will be extended for Huawei for 90 days, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the situation.On Sunday, Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One in New Jersey that he did not want to do business with Huawei for national security reasons.“At this moment it looks much more like we’re not going to do business,” Trump said. “I don’t want to do business at all because it is a national security threat and I really believe that the media has covered it a little bit differently than that.” He said there were small parts of Huawei’s business that could be exempted from a broader ban, but that it would be “very complicated.” He did not say whether his administration would extend the “temporary general license.”

China Warns Trump It Won't Make Trade Concession If US Plays Hong Kong Card -Just days after Trump for the first time linked the ongoing Hong Kong protests with his assessment of the US-China trade war, Beijing has issued an ultimatum to the White House: the United States should not link trade negotiations with China to the Hong Kong protests, denouncing such a move as a miscalculation.In a short commentary published by Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily late on Monday, the author said that events in Hong Kong were the internal affairs of China, and linking them with trade negotiations was a "dirty" aim.“Making a fuss about Hong Kong will not be helpful to economic and trade negotiations between China and the US,” the commentary said. “They would be naive in thinking China would make concessions if they played the Hong Kong card” the oped cautioned.Chinese diplomatic observers also said Beijing considered the worsening situation in Hong Kong a sovereignty issue and would be highly unlikely to cave to Washington’s pressure.The remarks followed a statement by US Vice-President Mike Pence on Monday which reiterated President Donald Trump’s demand to tie the largely stalled trade talks with Hong Kong’s deepening crisis, a day after hundreds of thousands of people marched peacefully in defiance of repeated intimidation from Beijing. In an address at the Detroit Economic Club on Monday, Pence said the Trump administration would continue to urge Beijing to resolve differences with the protesters peacefully and warned that it would be harder for Washington to make a trade deal with Beijing if there was violence in the former British territory. Separately, Mike Pompeo said that China should allow Hong Kong protesters the freedom to express themselves, in what China saw as clear interference in its own internal matters.The Chinese article countered by saying that the top priority for Hong Kong was to stop violence and restore order, adding that US politicians should not send the wrong message to people creating chaos in the city. “In the face of political intimidation, we not only dare to say no, but also take countermeasures,” it warned.Global Times, a tabloid controlled by the flagship state-run newspaper People’s Daily, also warned in an editorial on Monday that American political and public opinion elites should not harbour the illusion they could influence China’s decisions on Hong Kong. “Because of the trade war, the US has lost the ability to impose additional pressure on China,” it said.

Trump Never Had a Grand Strategy for China: They Were Just Tariff Tantrums --President Trump has delayed the new tariffs he threatened to impose on Chinese imports in the early fall, and exempted some other Chinese imports altogether. The de-escalation of the Sino-U.S. trade war is especially welcome, given the markets’ renewed concerns about impending recession. Also striking was the president’s tacit acknowledgment that the tariffs threatened to harm the American consumer (which is probably the closest approximation we’ll ever get to an actual admission of error on his part). The truth is that we’ve had more than enough time under this “stable genius” to realize that there is no long-term strategic coherence to his trade policies, let alone signs of any “art of the deal.” Rather, the Trump presidency has been characterized by arbitrary goals and capricious tariff announcements that appear to be crafted with a view to securing plaudits on “Fox and Friends.” Unfortunately, “moderate” Democrats have not been much better on trade. Figures like former Vice President Biden continue to dismiss the competitive threat posed by China’s trade practices,and harken back to supposedly halcyon days of lobbyist-written “free trade” agreements that largely funneled income gains to the top tier. Millions of casualties from hyper-globalized trade have emerged in places like Biden’s own Scranton, Pennsylvania, where the ravages of NAFTA and other trade agreements were ignored by the political class and made proto-fascist politics more appealing. Many rationales have been deployed by the president to explain his ongoing embrace of the tariff weapon. None, however, fully stack up…

China Threatens US Currency Intervention Would Lead To "Market Turmoil" And "Unprecedented Political Fallout" --When, for the first time in 11 years, Jerome Powell cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps on July 31, something unexpected happened: the dollar spiked (in fact, the trade weighted dollar soared to a record high). And not only did the dollar spike as a result of a market that screamed to Powell "long overdue policy error", coupled with a growing dollar liquidity shortage which according to BofA and JPM will force the Fed to launch QE before long, but it was hit by a double whammy when it fell even further against the yuan just a few days later after Trump launched trade war. In fact, the yuan is now the lowest it has been against the dollar in 11 years. Worse, while the yuan dropped against its basket of reference currencies, the decline was far steeper against the greenback, suggesting that this was a premeditated, political move. That rapid devaluation prompted many banks (such as Bank of America, Standard Chartered and others) to speculate that it is only a matter of time before the US directly intervenes in the market to devalue the dollar against specific pairs (selling dollars, buying the reference currency), and especially against the Yuan.That threat has not been lost on Beijing, and as the FT reports today, top Chinese bankers in London have warned of the "drama" that would follow any US attempt to weaken the dollar by intervening in renminbi markets — a move that would be seen by Beijing as a "political act." A hostile "political act."Yet such an act looks increasingly likely after Trump has repeatedly taken aim at China (and Europe) both on Twitter and elsewhere for "playing currency games" as the trade war has morphed into a currency war, if not a full-blown one yet. The first shot in that particular currency war took place earlier this month when the US Treasury officially branded China a currency manipulator after the Chinese central bank allowed the renminbi to fall below Rmb7 to the dollar, a key threshold last breached in 2008, leading to further escalation in trade tensions. On Thursday the renminbi was trading at a fresh low of 7.09, with the both the offshore and onshore versions having once again converged. And so, with the yuan drifting lower day after day, one senior staffer at a London-based Chinese bank told the FT that the US could intervene in the offshore renminbi market, where the currency is traded more freely than on the mainland. But, he warned, "the consequences could be serious."“If you take on China on the currency . . . it would be interpreted as a political act and it would throw markets into turmoil,” said the senior staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity. The political fallout would be “unprecedented”, he added.

China will retaliate with tariffs on $75 billion more of US goods and resume auto duties - China said Friday it will impose new tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods and resume duties on American autos. The Chinese State Council said it decided to slap tariffs ranging from 5% to 10% on $75 billion U.S. goods in two batches effective on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. That happens to be when President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese goods are to take effect. It also said a 25% tariff will be imposed on U.S. cars and a 5% on auto parts and components, which will go into effect on Dec.15. China had paused these tariffs in April. Stocks tumbled and bond yields fell following the announcement. The retaliatory tariffs came after Trump earlier this month surprisingly ended a trade war cease-fire by threatening to impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. Some of those tariffs have been delayed to December to avoid any impact on holiday shopping season and some items were removed from the list. “In response to the measures by the U.S., China was forced to take countermeasures,” the state council said in a statement. “The Chinese side hopes that the U.S. will continue to follow the consensus of the Osaka meeting, return to the correct track of consultation and resolve differences, and work hard with China to end the goal of ending economic and trade frictions.” Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had reached the truce at the G-20 summit last month in Osaka, Japan. The two sides held talks in Shanghai last month and are scheduled to resume negotiations early next month in Washington. The trade battle between the world’s two largest economies has dragged on for more than a year and a half. Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products remain a big sticking point. Trump claimed China didn’t follow through on Xi’s promise to resume purchases of farm products.

Trump will raise tariff rates on Chinese goods in response to trade war retaliation -President Donald Trump will hike tariff rates on most imports from China in response to the latest shots in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, he said Friday. The White House will raise existing duties on $250 billion in Chinese products to 30% from 25% on Oct. 1, the president tweeted. The tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese goods, which start to take effect on Sept. 1, will now be 15% instead of 10%, he added. In a series of tweets, the president said he would increase the pressure on Beijing as part of his long held goal to force China to change what he calls unfair trade practices. Trump has fired more shots in the trade war as he seeks a sweeping trade deal with Beijing — even as the tariffs threaten global economic growth. “Sadly, past Administrations have allowed China to get so far ahead of Fair and Balanced Trade that it has become a great burden to the American Taxpayer,” he tweeted Friday. “As President, I can no longer allow this to happen!” In a statement Friday announcing the tariffs, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative called Beijing’s planned tariffs on U.S. goods “unjustified.” It said it would publish in the Federal Register “as soon as possible any additional details” on the new duties Trump announced.

In a bad sign for trade talks, Trump deploys a new label for China’s Xi – ‘enemy’Even as trade tensions continued to heat up, President Donald Trump would make sure to refer to China’s president, Xi Jinping, as his “friend.” On Friday, though, Trump unveiled a new label for his Chinese counterpart: “enemy.” In one of a series of tweets that rattled markets, the president posed a question to his more than 60 million followers comparing Xi to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. “My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” Trump wrote. The tweet came shortly after China announced that it will impose 5%-10% tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods and reinstate duties on American autos. The tariffs will come in two batches, on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15, which are the same days that Trump’s newest round of tariffs on Chinese goods will go into effect. The S&P 500 index of large publicly traded companies was down about 1.8% Friday morning after briefly going positive. Trump also said Friday that he had “hereby ordered” U.S. firms to seek an “alternative ” to China. At first blush, Trump’s comment was striking not for its slam on the communist leader, but for the critique of the American central bank chairman whom Trump himself appointed. But it also suggests that the president’s personal relationship with Xi, which Trump has touted as the best route to completing a major trade deal uniting the world’s two largest economies, is at a low point.

China strikes back at U.S. with new tariffs on $75 billion in goods (Reuters) - China said on Friday it will impose retaliatory tariffs against about $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, putting as much as an extra 10% on top of existing rates in the dispute between the world’s top two economies. The latest salvo from China comes after the United States unveiled tariffs on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, including consumer electronics, scheduled to go into effect in two stages on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. China will impose additional tariffs of 5% or 10% on a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States including agricultural products such as soybeans, crude oil and small aircraft. China is also reinstituting tariffs on cars and auto parts originating from the United States.

 Trump vows to respond to latest tariffs, calls for US companies to 'start looking for an alternative to China' -President Trump on Friday pledged to respond to China’s latest round of tariffs “this afternoon,” further ratcheting up the trade war between Washington and Beijing. In a string of tweets sent Friday morning, Trump also said he was ordering U.S. companies to “immediately start looking for an alternative to China,” proposing they begin making their products in the United States, though it was not immediately clear what authority he was attempting to invoke. Trump has previously pressured companies including Apple to begin producing their goods in the U.S. “The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing … your companies HOME and making your products in the USA,” Trump tweeted.   “I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States,” he tweeted.The messages came after China said earlier Friday that it would place new reciprocal tariffs on $75 billion in American auto parts and other goods. Trump is facing mounting pressure over his trade war with China, which economists have blamed in part for contributing to the weakening of the global economy and causing uncertainty that has left the U.S. stock market volatile. An increasing number of economists have also predicted the U.S. could slide into a recession by the end of 2021.U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday after Trump declared he would respond to the new round of tariffs. Trump and his advisers have insisted the economy is strong, pointing to low unemployment and other indicators, and sought to minimize concerns over the economy as speculation inflamed by the media.

Trump orders U.S. firms out of China after Beijing sets new tariffs (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he has ordered American companies to exit China after Beijing unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods, throwing a new twist into the bitter trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Trump said on Twitter he will issue a response to China’s latest tariff plan on Friday afternoon. The president was meeting with his trade team at midday, a senior White House official told Reuters. “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP,” Trump tweeted. “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

Trump says he’s ordering American companies to immediately start looking for an alternative to China -- President Donald Trump on Friday said he was ordering U.S. companies to “immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.” Trump also said he was ordering all U.S. postal carriers, including FedEx, Amazon, UPS and United States Post Office, “to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!).” And Trump said he will respond this afternoon to China’s newest round of tariffs on U.S. goods. The White House did not immediately respond when asked if the announcement, delivered in a four-part Twitter thread Friday morning, constituted an official order from the president. It was not immediately clear how, or under what authority, the president could implement these declared orders, or whether he had already done so. Stocks sank to session lows shortly after Trump’s tweets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 435 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite dove 2%. In a statement, UPS said that it “follows all applicable laws and administrative orders of the governments in the countries where we do business. We work closely with regulatory authorities to monitor for prohibited substances.” FedEx also responded: “FedEx already has extensive security measures in place to prevent the use of our networks for illegal purposes. We follow the laws and regulations everywhere we do business and have a long history of close cooperation with authorities.” Amazon and the Postal Service were not immediately available for comment. Trump’s tweets followed another missive against Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, who had just pledged to “act as appropriate” to sustain the U.S. economy amid the “deteriorating” global economic outlook. In an apparent response, Trump tweeted: “Who is our bigger enemy,” Powell or Chinese President Xi Jinping?

Can Trump order American companies to stop doing business with China? - President Trump’s demand that U.S. companies look for alternatives other than China. doing business should not be taken seriously, according to one Nobel Prize winner. “He can say what he likes, I think they can ignore it,” Oliver Hart told Fox Business' Jon Hilsenrath during "WSJ at Large.." “I don’t think they should take it too seriously.” Hart, a Harvard professor who was the co-recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2016, was reacting to the president's tweet on Friday, in which he blasted China for hitting the U.S. with more tariffs. “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China," Trump said in the tweet.  “I wouldn’t have thought they need to pay much attention, frankly,” Hart said. “That sounds more like something, you know, made by President Xi in China, if he would order Chinese companies to do it, well, maybe they have to.” Ken Bertsch, the executive director of the Council of Institutional Investors, a non-profit that focuses on corporate governance, said he feels the same. “He can say what he wants to, but companies need to have a much broader vision than that,” Bertsch said. “It’s not the role of the president to order companies what to do.”Hart then added the president really doesn’t the power to order businesses to do anything. “Unless Congress passes laws on this, I don’t think the president is the one they should be listening to,” he said. “I think they could be, again, sort of thinking to themselves what would our owners want on this?”

‘China is not paying for it’: Trump tariff hike hits everyone from beer brewers to book publishers - They brew beer, make musical instruments, publish children’s books and design headphones. Their industries are diverse, but they all have something in common: They represent American small and medium-sized businesses that rely on China either for production or essential equipment. And they are dreading President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs in a trade war that reached new intensity on Friday. The trade fight erupted more than a year ago, but past rounds of import duties have mostly affected parts and components that are not obvious to the average U.S. consumer. It’s this latest round that could impact everything from the craft beer you drink on the weekend to the musical instrument you play or the book your kid reads. While some industries were granted a reprieve until Dec. 15 in the midst of the holiday shopping season, others will face higher tariffs as soon as Sept. 1, just before Labor Day. Trump said on Friday that he “hereby ordered ” American companies to find an alternative to China and make their products in the United States. The president also raised the tariff rate on $300 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 15% in response to Beijing imposing tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. Small and medium-sized companies are now scrambling to adjust their business plans in response.

 China accuses US of using fentanyl as a political weapon as Donald Trump orders shipping firms to step up checks -- The US is politicising the issue of illicit Chinese exports of fentanyl and using it as a weapon against China, the country’s narcotics regulator said on Friday. Liu Yuejin, deputy head of China’s National Narcotics Control Commission, rejected accusations from the US that China was not doing enough to curb the flow of fentanyl, a highly addictive opioid painkiller, beyond its borders. Some American politicians “are upending the facts for their own political necessities,” Liu said in an interview in Beijing on Friday. The comments come just weeks after President Donald Trump lashed out at his Chinese counterpart in a tweet, saying Xi Jinping failed to stop the flow of Chinese-made fentanyl as promised, and cited this failure as one reason that another 10 per cent tariff would be levied on US$300 billion of Chinese exports on September 1. In a series of new tweets on Friday, Trump said that he would order US shipping companies to search for and reject any packages containing fentanyl, from China or any other country.FedEx already has extensive security measures to prevent the use of its network for illegal purposes, the company said in a statement. United Parcel Service said it works closely with authorities to monitor for prohibited substances, and takes a “multilayered” approach to prevent such shipments. Amazon did not respond to a request for comment. The US Postal Service said it was “aggressively working” to implement the provisions of an existing law to keep illicit drugs from entering the US. As an example of facts being twisted by the US, Liu cited three Chinese nationals whom the US issued economic sanctions against earlier this week for allegedly producing and trafficking fentanyl. Liu said Chinese authorities have been closely cooperating with their American counterparts on the issue of the three men, but that the individuals’ actions occurred before China’s tightening of its laws regulating the drug in April.

Trump says Europe will give him anything he wants: ‘All we have to do is tax their cars’- President Donald Trump believes he has quite the bargaining chip with the European Union. “Dealing with the European Union is very difficult; they drive a high bargain,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “We have all the cards in this country because all we have to do is tax their cars and they’d give us anything we wanted because they send millions of Mercedes over. They send millions of BMWs over.” The threat came after Trump signed a deal with the EU earlier this month to boost U.S. beef exports, which partially relieved American farmers who have taken a big hit from the intensified trade war with China. Annual duty-free U.S. beef exports to the EU are expected to nearly triple to $420 million as a result of the deal. The president had vowed to impose tariffs on imported vehicles and parts from the EU and Japan earlier this year but he decided to delay the duty for 180 days in mid-May. Trump is set to meet leaders from the EU at the G-7 summit this weekend in France. Many expect the summit to end without a joint communique due to differences on trade.

EU will 'respond in kind' if US imposes tariffs on France over digital tax - The European Union vowed to “respond in kind” if President Trump imposes tariffs on France over a new tax law that takes aim at U.S. tech giants like Amazon and Google. Speaking at a press conference during the G-7 summit in Biarritz, France on Saturday, President of the European Council Donald Tusk said the 28-member body is prepared to stand by France if Trump moves forward with his threat to slap an import duty on French wines. “I will protect French wine with genuine determination for many reasons,” Tusk said, adding, “The EU stands by France. If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the EU will respond in kind.” At the end of July, French President Emmanuel Macron signed the digital services tax, a 3 percent tax that targets companies worth at least 750 million euros ($834 million) globally and 25 million euros in France. It will be retroactively applied from early 2019 and is expected to generate up to 400 million euros per year. The move sparked ire from the Trump administration, which suggested it “unfairly” targeted the U.S. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said an investigation would "determine whether it is discriminatory or unreasonable and burdens or restricts United States commerce." Because France is part of the EU, it’s unclear how Trump could specifically target the country without ensnaring the entire bloc. Trump arrived in France early Saturday morning for a sit-down meeting with Macron. Neither addressed the tech tax or tariffs. 

Trump's Farm Bailout Flows To City Slickers, a D.C. Lobbyist and ‘Farms’ on Golf Courses - About 9,000 "city slickers" living in luxurious neighborhoods of the nation's largest cities received a farm bailout from the Trump administration to minimize the impact of the trade war with China, an updated Environmental Working Group (EWG) analysis of Department of Agriculture data shows. The EWG analysis of USDA data revealed that "many recipients live not in farm country but in the nation's 50 largest cities or in other decidedly nonrural locations." Urban recipients of the bailout include members of farm families, landowners, and investors. These people provide land, capital, or equipment for farms and make high-level decessions for operations. EWG said bailout recipients include 70 people in San Francisco, 65 residents in New York City, 63 residents in Los Angeles, 61 residents in Washington, D.C., and 19 Miami.   In Washington D.C., lobbyist Van R. Boyette for the sugar company Florida Crystals, and its owners, the Fanjul brothers of West Palm Beach, Fla. all collected bailouts this year. Here's a photo of the lobbyist's USDA address: Another non-farm address of a bailout recipient is at a Minneapolis skyscraper, is the location of R.D. Brummond and Sons LLC., which the Trump administration handled over nearly $100,000 this spring. The second is a mansion in a wealthy lakeside community in Blaine, Minn., a Minneapolis suburb, the address of Karnik Leifker LLC., which received about $100,000.  EWG has previously reported that nearly 20,000 city slickers in the nation's 50 largest cities received farm subsidies in 2017, including hundreds who have received payments for three decades. One farm bailout went to the address of a mansion located on a golf course of Craig Athen, of Omaha, Neb., who received $115,000 in government money this year. Richard M. Morgan, of Columbus, Ohio, another bailout recipient this year, had $50,000 in farm bailout money go to an address of a mansion located on a golf course.The environmental advocacy group said 3,500 bailout recipients had collected more than $125,000 in farm bailouts through April.In a previous report, EWG found that farm bailouts are flowing the wealthiest farmers.They suggested that the next bailout rounds would only increase the problem of how bailouts are not protecting mom-and-pop farmers, but rather showering wealthy farmers with money.Deline Farms Partnership, a soybean farm in Charleston, Mo., was the largest bailout recipient this year receiving nearly $1,000,000.

Trump says he is seriously looking at ending birthright citizenship (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that his administration was seriously looking at ending the right of citizenship for U.S.-born children of noncitizens and people who immigrated to the United States illegally. “We’re looking at that very seriously, birthright citizenship, where you have a baby on our land, you walk over the border, have a baby - congratulations, the baby is now a U.S. citizen. ... It’s frankly ridiculous,” Trump told reporters outside the White House. Trump has made cracking down on immigration a central plank of his presidency and re-election campaign, but many of the administration’s sweeping rule changes and executive orders have been stymied by the courts. The Republican president had told Axios news website in October 2018 that he would end “birthright citizenship” through an executive order. Experts have said such a move would run afoul of the U.S. Constitution. The Constitution’s 14th Amendment, passed after the Civil War to ensure that black Americans had full citizenship rights, granted citizenship to “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” It has since routinely been interpreted to grant citizenship to most people born in the United States, whether or not their parents are American citizens or legally living in the United States.

Trump orders indefinite jailing of detained immigrant families, attacks birthright citizenship - Donald Trump opened a major political offensive against democratic rights yesterday, declaring the government will keep thousands of immigrant families in indefinite detention, the children along with their parents. He also lashed out at birthright citizenship, declaring that his administration was “looking very seriously” into putting an end to a right guaranteed by the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution. Faced with mounting political difficulties—a slowing economy, plunging poll numbers, and growing opposition among workers—Trump is seeking to whip up xenophobia and racism to block the development of a unified movement of the working class against his government and against the profit system as a whole. While immigrant workers are immediate targets, his police-state measures are directed at the democratic rights of all working people. The change in Department of Homeland Security procedures on family detentions—long advocated by Trump’s fascist aide Stephen Miller—is the most sweeping of all of Trump’s anti-immigrant measures to date. It will be challenged in court immediately, because it blatantly violates a standing federal court order known as the “Flores settlement,” which bars the government from detaining children for longer than 20 days and mandates minimum standards of care for immigrant youth. It would be folly to rely on the federal courts—packed with Trump nominees and headed by the right-wing majority in the Supreme Court—to overturn the new DHS rules. Under Flores, immigrant families were not subject to lengthy detention on the grounds that such detention would violate the US Constitution and international law. Trump tried an end run around Flores in 2018, ordering parents to be held indefinitely even when the children were released after 20 days, effectively forcing the separation of parents and children in order to terrorize immigrant families.

Backlash against rule tying immigration cases to credit history — Consumer advocates and the credit reporting industry are taking issue with a Trump administration plan to use an immigrant's credit history to determine eligibility for legal residency. The plan, announced last week, will include credit scores and credit reports among expanded factors used by the Department of Homeland Security to decide whether immigration applicants would be a "public charge," meaning they would be dependent on the government for assistance and therefore eligible to be rejected for legal status. Financial industry observers say credit scoring was never intended to be used, nor should it be, as part of the criteria for seeking a green card or visa. Adding that factor, they say, sets applicants up for rejection since a foreigner seeking entry into the U.S. is unlikely to have a credit file with a U.S.-based consumer reporting agency. “It’s an absurd idea. … Many immigrants don’t have a credit history,” said Chi Chi Wu, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center. “Credit reports and credit scores, especially credit scores, aren’t designed for these purposes. They are designed to predict whether someone will be late on a loan." Ken Cuccinelli, acting director of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services office in DHS, said at a White House briefing last week that the "rule ... encourages and ensures self-reliance and self-sufficiency for those seeking to come to, or to stay in, the United States."   DHS said in its justification of the policy that a good credit history is a positive indicator that an immigrant is likely to be “self-sufficient.” “DHS's use of the credit report or scores focuses on the assessment of these debts, liabilities, and related indicators, as one indicator of an alien's strong or weak financial status, so that in the totality of the circumstances and as part of all considerations affecting the alien, the alien is more or less likely to become, in the future, a public charge,” it said in its rulemaking. “DHS believes it is useful information in determining whether aliens are able to support themselves.” But observers said the rule puts credit bureaus in the position of casting immigrants in a harsher light than was ever intended for the credit scoring process. Having spent little time in the U.S. consumer market, a foreigner likely would have a thin credit file, if any, making it likely that someone's credit history would contribute to the denial of immigration status.

In Nuevo Laredo, Trump’s ‘Remain in Mexico’ Program Feels Chaotic and Dangerous - Under a blistering noon sun, dozens of migrants from all over Latin America file south along a bridge to the Mexican border town of Nuevo Laredo, carrying nothing but plastic baggies full of documents and the clothes on their backs. Weeks or months before, the migrants had left their home countries for the United States where most hoped to attain asylum. Instead, after crossing into the U.S. from Mexico, they spent days in frigidly cold Customs and Border Protection (CBP) holding facilities, where agents stripped them of their belts, shoelaces, jewelry, and extra clothing. They were then given a date for an immigration hearing, roughly two months out, and sent back across to Mexico to wait for their court dates in the dangerous, unfamiliar city of Nuevo Laredo. The scene, which I witnessed Monday, was the result of President Donald Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy, known officially by its Orwellian moniker the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP). First launched in California in January before expanding to El Paso in March and to Laredo and Brownsville earlier this month, MPP is Trump’s most successful broadside yet on America’s asylum status quo: Under the program, more than 20,000 migrants have been returned to Mexican soil to await hearings in U.S. immigration courts—an unprecedented offloading of responsibility onto our poorer, deadlier neighbor to the south. Unlike many of Trump’s immigration gambits, the courts are letting MPP remain in force as its legality is challenged. (A Ninth Circuit hearing is scheduled for October.) While unaccompanied minors are spared, families and pregnant women are generally subject to MPP. Exceptions for those who fear for their lives in Mexico are limited and hard to obtain. Africans and other non-Spanish speakers, along with Mexicans, are generally excluded from MPP.

ICE Doctor Defends Force-Feeding Detainees on Hunger Strike as ‘Uncomfortable’ But Necessary In an El Paso federal courtroom on Friday, a doctor working for Immigration and Customs Enforcement calmly described the mechanics of force-feeding migrants who are hunger-striking at an El Paso detention center, a process that the United Nations has called “cruel, inhuman, and degrading” and she called “uncomfortable.”Under questioning from a government lawyer, Dr. Michelle Iglesias said that it takes at least ten medical and correctional personnel to conduct the procedure, which involves inserting a long flexible tube through the detainee’s nose, down the throat, and into the stomach. “It looks like a plastic straw, the same diameter,” Iglesias, 37, told U.S. District Judge David Guaderrama. An X-ray technician checks to make sure the tube was inserted correctly. Six guards surround the detainee—one for each arm and leg, and one at each end of the bed—to respond to any resistance. As many as five other detainees, including fellow hunger-strikers, are in the same room as the sometimes-bloody procedure unfolds.At the hearing, attorneys for ICE sought permission to force-feed two men from India who have gone without food for 39 days in a bid to be released on bond while courts decide their immigration cases. The men have said they will die in jail rather than be returned to certain political persecution in India. Iglesias referred to the men several times as “my hunger strikers.” “It’s difficult to watch a very young individual do self-harm to himself. It’s very difficult to see someone slowly dying,” she said on the stand.

 Trump administration refuses to vaccinate migrants in detention centers - The US federal government will not be vaccinating migrants ahead of this year’s flu season, according to a Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) statement. Of the six children that have died while in the custody of the American Gestapo since September 2018, three have died due to flu-related illnesses. “In general, due to the short-term nature of CBP holding and the complexities of operating vaccination programs, neither CBP nor its medical contractors administer vaccinations to those in our custody,” stated a CBP spokesperson. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that all children older than six months old receive an annual flu vaccination. The announcement came after a group of doctors affiliated with Harvard and Johns Hopkins wrote a letter to Congress in early August demanding an investigation of heath conditions at border facilities. Influenza deaths among US children is “extremely rare,” according to the US doctors. This past flu season, the CDC reported 124 influenza child fatalities. This represents a rate of about one reported death per 600,000 children. Yet at migrant detention centers, three children out of 200,000 detained have died of influenza—a rate that is nearly 10 times higher. The letter to Congress states that migrant children in detention centers are already at a higher risk of contracting influenza than individuals born in the United States. With lower rates of immunization, higher rates of other infectious diseases, and inadequate pediatric care early in life, the immune-compromised migrants would be granted the highest level of medical care under a scientific and rational society. The refusal to provide vaccinations cannot be explained by the “complexity” of organizing an immunization campaign in migrant camps. Nor can it be explained by the “short-term” nature of a child’s detention, which, in reality, often drags into the weeks or months. Rather, the decision to run filthy and disease-ridden detention camps is part of a definite strategy by Trump’s fascistic advisers. They calculate that by inflicting both physical and emotional harm on immigrants, the US government will be able to deter the hundreds of thousands of workers, peasants, and youth that want to flee their intolerable conditions of poverty and violence and exercise their international right to asylum. Trump and his advisers do not wish to prevent illness, but to stoke it

 ‘Bees, not refugees’: the environmentalist roots of anti-immigrant bigotry -- The environmentalist, white nationalist, and influential anti-immigration activist John Tanton died less than three weeks before the El Paso shooting. Tanton lived to see his movement shape much of modern US immigration policy, but not this latest violent turn. A hate-filled document allegedly linked to the man suspected of killing 22 people in El Paso on 3 August echoed the kind of rhetoric generally favored by the far right – and also had a decidedly environmentalist, Tanton-like bent. The document praised the Dr Seuss character the Lorax, who says he speaks for the trees, and complained about the unsustainable overuse of paper towels. It concluded that the best course of environmental action would be mass murder. A week prior, on an Instagram account reportedly linked to the alleged Gilroy, California, garlic festival shooter, he complained about migrant-driven sprawl. Months before, the Christchurch, New Zealand, shooter called himself an “eco-fascist”.  Long before this violence, researchers warned of “the greening of hate”. From Tanton’s anti-immigration nonprofit network to some of today’s avowed environmentalists, across the political spectrum, overpopulation and immigration in particular has been blamed for environmental collapse for over 50 years.  Anti-immigrant ideology has been part and parcel of the whole of American conservationism since the first national park was founded, in part to protect wild yet white-owned nature from Mexicans and Native Americans. National purity and natural purity were inextricably linked. The current rise of eco-minded white supremacy follows a direct line from the powerful attorney, conservationistand eugenicist Madison Grant – a friend of trees, Teddy Roosevelt, and the colonial superiority of white land stewardship. Grant, along with the influential naturalist John Muir and other early Anglo-Saxon conservationists, was critical in preserving the country’s wildlands for white enjoyment.   Grant successfully lobbied, in equal measure, for the creation of protected national parks and the restriction of immigration by non-whites.

Trump Isn’t Crazy to Want to Buy Greenland - Leonid Bershidsky - Former Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen called U.S. President Donald Trump’s reported idea of buying Greenland, a self-governed Danish territory, an out-of-season April’s Fool joke. Trump’s idea may be outlandish (and impossible) but that doesn’t mean there’s no benefit in thinking about reviving the market in sovereign territories, which once made America great. Besides acquiring Louisiana from France, Florida from Spain, Alaska from Russia and much of its southwest from Mexico, the U.S. nearly bought Greenland and Iceland in the 1860s. The idea was to surround Canada with U.S. territory and thus persuade it to join the U.S.The time for wooing Canada passed quickly, though, and the U.S. recognized Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland in 1917 after it bought the Virgin Islands, then a Danish colony. But soon enough, the world’s biggest island acquired strategic importance for the U.S. again, this time as a base for warplanes during World War II. The atomic bomb made Greenland even more strategic. In the pre-missile years, it was especially important to have a base for bombers near an adversary’s borders, and Greenland was close enough to the Soviet Union that the U.S. could threaten all of European Russia from it. It was also an ideal base for reconnaissance flights.The U.S. tried to buy Greenland again, but a 1946 offer to the Danish government fell on deaf ears, even though the island housed only about 600 Danes at the time. As it turned out, the U.S. didn’t need to buy the island. The formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Denmark was a founding member, and a 1951 bilateral defense agreement allowed the U.S. to establish the military presence it needed in Greenland. Now, the U.S. uses its Thule base as part of an early-warning system in case of a Russian nuclear strike. But Greenland’s strategic significance is on the rise again. Russia’s recent build-up in the Arctic, both military and civilian, is leaving the U.S. behind; a stronger U.S. presence in the region than just an Air Force base in Greenland would make it harder for Russia to seal control of the Northern Sea Route and team up with China on monopolizing it. Besides, global warming and Greenland’s rapidly melting ice make for easier access to Greenland’s vast natural resources. The U.S., in short, has better reasons to covet Greenland than Trump’s vanity or all the golf courses he could build there as the ice melts.

American Imperialists Have Always Dreamed of Greenland - From his love of tariffs to his racial view of the world, Donald Trump is the nineteenth-century president America never had. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal offered another piece of evidence suggesting that the 45th president is a man out of time: the president, it turns out, has frequently mused aloud about buying Greenland from Denmark. (Greenland, although largely self-governing, is alongside Denmark and the Faroe Islands one of the three constituent countries of the Kingdom of Denmark.) Like Trump’s racism and trade policies, there’s a precedent for American officials trying to buy territory. Most Americans know, vaguely, that the United States acquired much of its territory by buying it. Some acquisitions, like the Louisiana Purchase, are well enough known to be the subject of TV ads. Others are more obscure, like when Secretary of War Jefferson Davis and other Southerners pressed for the purchase of enough of northern Mexico to support the construction of a Southern transcontinental railway.In fact, buying Greenland has been tried seriously twice. But the changes in international relations since then make it a far worse idea than it was at the time.The first time came during the administration of President Andrew Johnson. William Seward, a Lincoln holdover, used Johnson’s distraction over Reconstruction to pursue his longstanding goals of territorial expansion. Seward made bids of varying intensity to wrest Canada from the British Empire and to buy or lease a naval base in the Caribbean. His buccaneering policy finally paid off with the Alaska Purchase, when the Russian Empire, seeking to divest itself of some underperforming assets, finally succeeded in persuading Seward to buy Russian North America. But it also included an attempt to buy Greenland and Iceland from Denmark, which then owned both. The second attempt came in the aftermath of the Second World War. Denmark, which still administered Greenland as a colony, was conquered in a six-hour operation in March 1940. A year later, the Danish ambassador, who retained his credentials even though he refused to take orders from the occupied government in Copenhagen, signed an agreement with the US government allowing it to occupy and fortify the island to prevent Germany from using it as a base against the US and Canada

Trump tweets photo of Trump Tower in Greenland: 'I promise not to do this' -  The tweet comes after reports that Trump has floated the idea of the United States purchasing Greenland, an autonomous possession of Denmark. Trump acknowledged the possibility himself over the weekend. "Strategically, it's interesting, and we'd be interested, but we'll talk to them a little bit. It's not number one on the burner," Trump told reporters from his Bedminster, N.J., golf club on Sunday while comparing it to a “large real estate deal.” "And strategically for the United States, it would be nice. And we’re a big ally of Denmark, and we help Denmark, and we protect Denmark,” he said.  Officials from both Greenland and mainland Denmark categorically rejected the idea last week. “We are open for business, but we’re not for sale,” said Ane Lone Bagger, Greenland’s foreign minister.

Shock in Denmark after Trump, spurned over Greenland, cancels visit (Reuters) - Danes voiced shock and disbelief on Wednesday at U.S. President Donald Trump’s cancellation of a visit to Denmark after his idea to buy Greenland was rebuffed, although Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she believed relations would not be affected. Trump’s proposal at first elicited incredulity and humor from politicians in Denmark, a NATO ally of the United States, with former premier Lars Lokke Rasmussen saying: “It must be an April Fool’s Day joke.” But the mood turned to bewilderment when Trump called off the Sept. 2-3 visit after Frederiksen called his idea of the United States purchasing Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory rich in natural resources, “absurd”. Frederiksen, a center-left Social Democrat, said she learned of Trump’s decision “with regret and surprise”, given Denmark’s strong relations with Washington, but repeated her opposition to any Greenland transaction. She stressed that Greenland’s premier Kim Kielsen had ruled out selling off the territory and “I obviously agree with him”. But Frederiksen said the United States remained one of Denmark’s closest allies. “I don’t think the cancelling of this state visit should affect any decisions we make whether it is on commercial cooperation or foreign and security policies.” Trump’s decision elicited condemnation, outrage and mockery alike among Danish opposition leaders and the public. “So (Trump) has canceled his visit to Denmark because there was no interest in discussing selling Greenland. Is this some sort of joke? Deeply insulting to the people of Greenland and Denmark,” tweeted former premier Helle Thorning Schmidt.

 “He Has Made Us a Laughing Stock”: Diplomats Stunned by Trump’s Feud With Denmark - Donald Trump’s preposterous fixation with buying Greenland, initially treated as a distraction by American media and a joke by the Danish government, became less amusing Tuesday night when the president declared that he would be canceling his planned diplomatic trip to Denmark in retaliation. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had told the White House, that Greenland, an autonomous territory in the Arctic, wasn’t Denmark’s to sell.“Sometimes it is hard to believe that what Trump is saying and doing on the world stage is actually happening,” said Nicholas Burns, the former U.S. ambassador to NATO. “This is one of those days.” Denmark, after all, is a key partner in the North Atlantic alliance, and was among the first countries to pledge military support in Iraq and Afghanistan. More than 40 Danish troops died in Helmand province, fighting alongside American and British soldiers.“I realize this is yet another bizarre and humorous Trump moment for the late night talk shows here in the U.S.,” Burns told me. “But, for the rest of the world, particularly our allies, it is simply shocking how far America has fallen from grace in their eyes.”  The Wall Street Journal first reported last week that the president had been asking his advisers about buying up the island, which Trump later described as “essentially, it’s a large real estate deal.”According to the Washington Post, Trump had been flirting with the idea for weeks and had even discussed taking over Denmark’s annual $600 million subsidy to Greenland in perpetuity, and possibly tossing in an additional large payment to sweeten the deal.   “It is truly bizarre. On one level I am surprised that he even knows Greenland exists and beyond that, that he knows it belongs to Denmark,” a former high-ranking State Department official told me. This person, who was involved in the Thule negotiations, continued, “My biggest takeaway is how tough the Greenlanders were in insisting on their rights and to a great degree independence from Denmark, NATO and the [United States Government]. ‘Acquiring’ Greenland is much, much, much more than buying Alaska. It has a strong, self aware local government that will get a say in this as well and it won’t be pretty.”

Trump administration calls for permanent restoration of bulk phone communications surveillance - In a declassified letter to Congressional leaders, the outgoing Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats called for the “permanent reauthorization of the provisions of the USA Freedom Act of 2015 that are currently set to expire in December.” The top Trump administration intelligence official wrote that among these provisions are the National Security Agency’s (NSA) officially suspended bulk collection of “telephone records from US telecommunications providers.” Coats’ letter was addressed to the Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Richard Burr (Republican, North Carolina) and Vice Chairman Mark Warner (Democrat, Virginia) and the Chairman of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary Lindsay Graham (Republican, South Carolina) and Ranking Committee Member Dianne Feinstein (Democrat, California). The day after his letter was declassified on August 14, Coats departed the White House following his formal resignation as Director of National Intelligence on July 29. Writing on behalf of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the White House, Coats said—in addition to requesting restoration of bulk phone data collection—there are three key “long-standing national security authorities” contained in the USA Freedom Act that are “common sense” and “have no history of abuse after more than 18 years, and should be reauthorized without sunset.” These three authorizations are: the “business records” provision that permits federal law enforcement to seize tangible items like business papers and documents in a FISA court approved foreign intelligence investigation; the “roving wiretap” provision that permits national security agencies to tap calls from telephone numbers not specifically authorized by the FISA court; and the “lone wolf” provision that permits national security agencies to identify someone as a terrorist without having to show that they are an “agent of a foreign power” as required by other laws.

ABC Fined Almost $400K for Jimmy Kimmel Emergency Skit -The Federal Communications Commission has fined ABC almost $400,000 over a Jimmy Kimmel skit that used the Emergency Alert System tone, Business Insider reports.The FCC announced Thursday that it has fined ABC $395,000 for using the EAS tone three times during an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on October 3, 2018. The system allows the U.S. president to warn Americans via text, radio, and television of dangerous weather and to announce AMBER alerts for missing children. In the sketch, a family is shown being overwhelmed by alerts from President Donald Trump saying "fake news" and "end the witch hunt." AMC and Discovery were previously fined $104,000 and $68,000, respectively, for using the alert in episodes of "The Walking Dead" and "Lone Star Law," as were radio stations Meruelo Radio Holdings and KDAY and KDEY-FM in the Los Angeles area."The use of actual or simulated EAS tones during non-emergencies and outside of proper testing or public service announcements is a serious public safety concern," the FCC wrote in the announcement. "The FCC's rules prohibit such broadcasting of EAS tones — including simulations of them — except during actual emergencies, authorized tests or authorized public service announcements.

DOJ says Christian employers should be allowed to make women wear skirts  -- The Trump administration is continuing its war on the rights of trans people on all fronts. This time, it's in front of the U.S. Supreme Court.This term, the Supreme Court will hear a case, R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), to determine whether trans employees can be fired simply for being trans.   A lower court ruled last year that Harris Funeral Homes broke the law when they fired Aimee Stephens, a woman who began transitioning in 2013. Harris Funeral Homes is owned by conservative Christians who objected to people transitioning. The company also forced all employees to abide bystrict gender roles in clothing: Men had to wear suits and ties, and women had to wear skirts and jackets. In the lower courts, the EEOC was the entity that brought the lawsuit against the funeral home on behalf of Stephens. They argued that Title VII, which prohibits workplace discrimination on the basis of sex, applied to trans workers. However, while that was a view supported by the EEOC under the Obama administration when the case began, it is not the view of the Trump administration at all. In fact, the administration just issued a proposed rule that would let any company that contracts with the federal government fire LGBTQ workers in the name of "religious liberty." The logic underpinning this bigoted rule is the same as in the case here: arguing that Title VII does not apply to trans workers and they, therefore, have no protection against getting fired.  Currently, the case is before the Supreme Court, to be heard in the 2019-2020 term, and the government has flipped sides. Last week, the Department of Justice wrote a brief arguing the case that the EEOC won in the appellate court should now be reversed, urging the Court to hand a victory to the Christian funeral home owner. The DOJ's stance is so appalling that the EEOC refused to sign onto the brief. The argument of Solicitor General Noel Francisco, a Trump nominee, is that Title VII is limited only to discrimination based on "biological sex" only and therefore doesn't cover the firing of Stephens for being transgender. Put another way, the DOJ is arguing that Title VII applies when, say, women are treated worse at a job then men are, but not when transgender workers are treated worse at work than non-transgender workers.

Congressional Black Caucus Institute Takes CoreCivic Cash, Boosts Policies That Help Private Prisons -The Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) says it wants to ban private prison companies that profit from mass incarceration, as do many criminal justice reformers. The caucus states on its website that banning private prisons is part of its agenda for the current session of Congress, and it has posted onFacebook recently in support of cities that end their contracts with private prison companies like CoreCivic and GEO Group, scoring hundreds of likes each time. Despite its public statements, the caucus’ affiliated institute has financial ties to CoreCivic, a private prison company that activists say stands in opposition to reforming the criminal justice system. In a lobbying contribution report filed with the House of Representatives, CoreCivic disclosed donating $25,000 in “honorary expenses” to the CBC-linked Congressional Black Caucus Institute (CBCI) on April 15, 2019. The filing lists CBCI chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and CBCI board members Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Cedric Richmond (D-La.), the former chair of the CBC, as honorees. CoreCivic made a similar donation of $25,000 to CBCI in 2018.CBCI is one of several affiliated entities that are legally distinct from the Congressional Black Caucus but share personnel and operate under the caucus’ brand and banner. CBCI says its mission is to “educate today’s voters and train tomorrow’s leaders,” and according to tax documents its main activities are candidate training, policy research, and an annual c onference. Another connected nonprofit, the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, got $10,000 from the foundation of GEO Group in 2017, according to tax records.

Trump Slams NYT After Leaker Reveals Pivot From 'Russiagate' To 'Racism Witch Hunt' -- President Trump slammed the "failing New York Times" on Sunday after leaked comments from executive editor Dean Baquet revealed that the paper is pivoting from the Russia narrative (which he described as being "a little tiny bit flat-footed") to 'Trump is a racist.'   "The failing New York Times, in one of the most devastating portrayals of bad journalism in history, got caught by a leaker that they are shifting from the Phony Russian Collusion Narrative (the Mueller Report & his testimony were a total disaster), to a Racism Witch Hunt," Trump wrote on Twitter, adding "‘Journalism’ has reached a new low in the history of our Country. It is nothing more than an evil propaganda machine for the Democrat Party. The reporting is so false, biased and evil that it has now become a very sick joke…But the public is aware! The reporting is so false, biased and evil that it has now become a very sick joke…But the public is aware!"

 Trump squares off in court with House Democrats over financial records (Reuters) - Lawyers for U.S. President Donald Trump asked a federal appeals court on Friday to block Deutsche Bank and Capital One Financial from handing the financial records of the president’s family and the Trump Organization to Democratic lawmakers.The case, before the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan, is one of several legal battles between the Democrats, who took control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January, and the Republican president, who is seeking re-election in November 2020.In subpoenas issued in April, Democratic lawmakers asked the banks for records related to Trump, his adult children and the Trump Organization. U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos in Manhattan ruled in June that the subpoenas could be enforced.Patrick Strawbridge, a lawyer for the Trumps, told the appellate panel that the committees did not have a “legitimate legislative purpose” for the subpoenas, which he described as too broad. “The subpoenas look for every debit card, every Diet Coke that a teenager purchased using a credit card from Capital One” if they are related to Trump, he said.

Trump 2020: Be Very Afraid - Matt Taibbi -- Donald Trump doesn’t visit Middle America. He descends upon it. His rallies are awesome spectacles. Gawkers come down from the hills. If NASA traveled the country holding showings of the first captured alien life-form, the turnout would be similar. The pope driving monster trucks might get this much attention. Almost everyone in line is wearing 45 merch. Trump is the most T-shirtable president in history, and it’s not even close. Trumpinator tees are big (“2020: I’LL BE BACK”), but you’ll also see Trump as Rambo (complete with headband, ammo belt, and phallic rocket-launcher), Trump as the Punisher (a Trump pompadour atop the famous skull), even Trump as Superman (pulling his suit open to reveal a giant T). Slogans include “Trump 2020: Grab ’em by the Pussy Again!” and the ubiquitous “Trump 2020: Fuck Your Feelings.” Two and a half years into his presidency, Trump has already staked a claim to a role in history usually reserved for hereditary monarchs at the end of a line of inbreeding. Historians will list him somewhere between Vlad the Impaler and France’s Charles VI, who thought his buttocks were made of glass.Much of America loves its Mad King, whose works are regularly on display. Russians under Ivan the Terrible used to watch dogs being hurled over the Kremlin walls when the tsar’s mood was bad. Americans have grown used to late-night insults tweeted at nuclear powers from the White House bedroom.Royal lunacy is traditionally a secret, but in Twitter-age America it’s a shared national experience. We are all somersaulting down and out the sanity chute. The astonishing thing about Trump is that he wasn’t foisted on us by a council of Bourbons, or by succession law. We elected the man, and are poised to do it again. History will judge us harshly for this, and will look with particular venom at Trump’s political opponents in both parties, who over the years were unable to win popularity contests against a man most people would not leave alone with a decent wristwatch, let alone their children.

Trump denounces Jews for “disloyalty” if they do not vote for him “I think any Jewish people that vote for a Democrat, I think it shows either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday. After this remark sparked widespread outrage and condemnation from Jewish groups, who pointed out that the charge of “disloyalty” echoed longstanding anti-Semitic attacks, Trump deliberately repeated his comment on Wednesday, in a slightly modified form. “If you want to vote Democrat, you are being very disloyal to Jewish people and very disloyal to Israel,” he said. The argument in both cases was the same: Jewish voters owe political loyalty to the state of Israel, which is aligned with Trump; if they vote for Democrats (i.e., against Trump), they are betraying Israel. The real thrust, of course, is that Jewish voters are betraying Trump—a clear incitement of Trump’s fascist and white supremacist supporters to avenge themselves against such Jews. As in his “jokes” about canceling the 2020 elections and ruling indefinitely through a third or fourth presidential term, Trump is pursuing a calculated strategy of provocation, not merely blurting out comments that seem to border on insanity, as most American media outlets have chosen to portray this episode. Trump is not seeking to win Jewish votes in the 2020 election through such statements. If anything, the blatant anti-Semitism of his remarks would lead to an even greater rejection of his presidency in 2020 than in 2016, when some 71 percent of Jewish voters cast ballots for Hillary Clinton against 23 percent for Trump. In 2018, when the Democrats recaptured the House of Representatives, the anti-Trump majority among Jewish voters was even larger: 79 percent voted for Democratic candidates and only 17 percent for Republicans. If there is an electoral component to these comments, it is that Trump is continuing his effort to target four Democratic congresswomen, all elected in heavily minority districts and all themselves from minority communities: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. Trump has sought to identify the four as the real face of the Democratic Party and used them as hate objects at his campaign rallies, where he vilifies them as socialists and has called on them to “go back where they came from.”

AIPAC breaks with Netanyahu over Omar-Tlaib decision - The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on Thursday broke with Israel's decision to bar Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) from visiting the country, saying "every member of Congress should be able to visit."  "We disagree with Reps. Omar and Tlaib’s support for the anti-Israel and anti-peace BDS movement, along with Rep. Tlaib’s calls for a one-state solution. We also believe every member of Congress should be able to visit and experience our democratic ally Israel firsthand," AIPAC tweeted Thursday. The statement follows Israel's announcement that the House Democrats will be prevented from entering the country as part of a planned trip over their support for the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel. Israel's announcement came shortly after President Trump urged the country to bar the progressive lawmakers from entering. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended his country’s decision, citing an Israeli law that prohibits entry into the country for individuals who support a boycott of Israel.  “As a vibrant and free democracy, Israel is open to any critic and criticism, with one exception: Israel’s law prohibits the entry of people who call and operate to boycott Israel, as is the case with other democracies that prevent the entry of people whose perception harms the country," he said in a statement posted to his official Facebook page.

The DNC Is Screwing Tulsi Gabbard -- Dave Cohen -Clueless idealists aside, all of those who support Tulsi Gabbard have known that the Democratic National Committee would find a way to fuck Tulsi over well before the first primary next year. And so the inevitable screwing will happen about 10 days from now. As Kim Iverson explains in the video below, the DNC is desperately trying to keep Tulsi off the debate stage before she does any more damage to their corrupt plans. After the first debate, in which Tulsi destroyed Tim Ryan, the most googled name in the country was ... Tulsi Gabbard. After the second debate, in which Tulsi demolished Kamala Harris, the most googled name in the country was ... Tulsi Gabbard.On Twitter, after the second debate, Tulsi was at the top of the trending list. So Twitter removed her from that list. And you do know that Tulsi is suing Google for $50 million, right? Follow the link to find out why.I mean, she's a real loose cannon, this Tulsi girl. Next time around, she might destroy Sleepy Joe Biden or even Pocahontas herself! Oh, sorry, I meant Elizabeth Warren there. Well, the DNC can't have Tulsi doing that. And so Tusli must be screwed because any bona fide member of the globalist pro-war elites will tell you that democracy is never a good thing.And if they were honest, these elite scumbags would also tell you "we have nearly all the money, so we're not finished, there's still work to do. We also want all the money we don't have."

Our Leaders Kill For Their Own Benefit - Most people are terribly confused when it comes to understanding our leaders, whether corporate or political. They think that the sort of ethical or moral constraints which hold them back, hold back leaders. But being a leader in our society is about “extracting value” from ordinary people. Raising the price of insulin to $300, for example. Or launching a war against a country which is no threat to you. Or throwing people in jail for 20 years for minor drug offenses. Our leaders don’t think the same way we do. Their function isn’t to make our lives better, their function is to make their lives better: and the lives of those people who can help them or the few people they care about. Biden, for example, goes on and on about how much he loves his family. Boo hoo. Then he supports policies like the bankruptcy bill or three strikes laws which destroy other families. Obama and Geithner quite deliberately created a relief program for homeowners which relieved almost no one and instead made sure that they went bankrupt, so the banks would get their homes. The policy was intended, and this has been admitted, to help the banks, not ordinary people. (See David Dayen’s “Chain of Title” if you need the tedious proof.) To elites, we are tools at best, useless eaters at worse. They are trained to look at us and figure out how much value they can extract: as consumers, workers, voters and soldiers. Then they extract the value, and if some of us wind up dead, or homeless or sick or crippled, well, they don’t lose one second of sleep over it.

More Than 40% Of Americans Believe Epstein Was Murdered, Poll Shows - Anybody who has been paying attention to the online gossip and informal Twitter polling surrounding Jeffrey Epstein's death probably won't be surprised to learn that many doubt the official narrative that Epstein hanged himself in his cell while his guards slept. For many, there are simply too many unanswered questions, and too many powerful people potentially implicated in Epstein's crimes. He threatened the Clintons and their powerful friends, at least that's what many are beginning to believe. And the fact that Epstein's death has been typified by a very 'Vince Foster' kind of vibe that lends even more credence to the belief that he didn't simply kill himself as police have said.  And now, a new Rasmussen Poll found that less than one-third of Americans believe the official narrative that Epstein simply offed himself.Only 29% of American Adults believe Epstein actually committed suicide while in jail, Rasmussen found. Another 42% think Epstein was murdered to prevent him from testifying against powerful people with whom he associated. A sizable 29% are undecided. Other theories have been floated (though they weren't included in the poll). One is the notion that a 'body double' was found for Epstein, then was killed and posed to look like him in his jail, while the real Epstein fled. 67% of respondents said they have closely followed news reports about Epstein, while 25% have followed the news very closely. Among Americans who have been following the story very closely, 56% believe Epstein was murdered. Men are also more likely than women to think that Epstein was murdered.  Rasmussen surveyed 1,000 American Adults on Aug. 12-13, 2019. The study started just as news of Epstein's death was released.

Jeffrey Epstein 'signed will two days before death' - Jeffrey Epstein signed a will two days before killing himself in his New York jail cell, US media reports say. Court papers filed last week in the US Virgin Islands valued Epstein's estate at more than $577 million (£475m) but listed no details of beneficiaries, the Associated Press reported. The will, details of which were first reported by the New York Post, directs Epstein's assets to be put into trust. Epstein died while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges. The New York medical examiner found that the 66-year-old, whose body was discovered on 10 August, died of "suicide by hanging". Epstein pleaded not guilty to the charges against him and was being held without bail. He faced up to 45 years in prison if convicted. The former financier put all of his holdings into a trust called The 1953 Trust, according to a copy of the will published by the New York Post. He signed the document on 8 August. No details of any beneficiaries are included in the document, which lists assets including more than $56m in cash, more than $14m in fixed income investments and more than $18m in "aviation assets, automobiles and boats". Epstein's collection of fine arts, antiques and other valuables is yet to be appraised, the document says. Some of Epstein's alleged victims have said they will go after his assets for damages following his death.

EXCLUSIVE: Jeffrey Epstein shipped $100K cement truck to ‘P*dophile Island’ three weeks before damning expose was released, paying for machine up front so it would arrive quicker, as experts say he could have ‘literally covered up evidence’ --Jeffrey Epstein had a $100,000 cement truck shipped express to his Caribbean island three weeks before an expose was published which led to his arrest, DailyMailTV can exclusively reveal. The pedophile, who was found dead by apparent suicide on Saturday while awaiting trial for sex trafficking, got the Carmix 5.5 XL self loading concrete mixer delivered to Little St. James on November 7 last year. Epstein was in such a hurry that he paid for the machine up front so it would arrive sooner - even though it meant being responsible if it got damaged in transit. Three weeks later the Miami Herald published a series of articles called 'Perversion of Justice' on November 28, which eventually led to Epstein being arrested in July. Shipping experts told DailyMailTV that the possibility that it was 'used to literally cover up evidence cannot be discounted'. Among the other items that Epstein had sent to Little St. James in the US Virgin Islands was a dentist's chair complete with all the parts, DailyMail.com can reveal. Epstein also sent a tile and carpet extractor that weighed 191 pounds from the US Virgin Islands to his New York home on March 11 this year. Four months later he was arrested at Teterboro airport near New York and indicted on sex trafficking charges. The details come after DailyMailTV exclusively revealed that the FBI had raided Little St. James on Monday as they widen their investigation into Epstein's alleged abuse of underage girls. Federal agents will be scouring the property to find evidence for their investigation - and Epstein's use of a cement truck raises the prospect they may have to dig to find some of it.

Why was Jeffrey Epstein allowed to purchase small women’s panties from the Palm Beach jail?  - A decade ago, during a brief stint in Palm Beach County Jail, convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein made an odd purchase at the facility’s store: two pairs of small women’s panties, size 5. It was just one of thousands of dollars of purchases made by the disgraced financier while in jail after pleading guilty in 2008 to soliciting a minor for sex, according to a purchase log. (His top purchase was single-serve cups of coffee, of which he bought more than 800 in 13 months.) But the panties raise questions about why a childless male inmate, accused of sexually abusing girls as young as 14, would be allowed to buy female undergarments so small that they wouldn’t fit an average-sized adult woman.  The panties were certainly too small for Epstein, who also purchased his briefs in men’s medium and sweatshirts ranging from XL to 3XL, and size 12 shoes. So what, or who, were they for, and why wouldn’t the purchase raise eyebrows under the circumstances? It’s one of many questions that arise from thousands of pages of records obtained by the Miami Herald from the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office.

Jeffrey Epstein Pitched His Own Narrative and Mainstream Media Published It -- As independent media journalists and outlets reporting on all things Jeffrey Epstein continue to find themselves under the microscope, some important revelations about mainstream media’s reporting of the convicted pedophile have come to light, thanks to the New York Times. The double standard by which social media platforms, fact checkers, and news consumers alike judge independent versus mainstream media is, in short, incredibly unfair. Every time information about the ills of mainstream media surface, it is important to take note and adjust the lens through which one consumes mainstream media accordingly.This latest revelation regarding the less than transparent side of mainstream media involves outlets likeForbes, National Review and HuffPost and Epstein’s attempt to improve his public image after his stint in the Palm County Jail back in 2009 after he plead guilty to two prostitution charges for soliciting a minor in Florida in 2008 in an attempt to avoid federal charges related to sexually abusing underage girls. His efforts resulted in the publishing of multiple puff pieces casting the deceased financier as an intelligent and selfless businessman with a passion for science. And while Epstein was indeed a philanthropist, these articles failed to mention his criminal past or current controversies.

 Epstein Used Network Of Shell Companies And Associates For Sex-Trafficking Ring, Lawsuits Claim --Jeffrey Epstein used his tangled web of shell companies as a "brazen and powerful organization" to operate a sex-trafficking ring, according to three new civil lawsuits filed against his $578 million estate.   The new litigation was filed against the estate, its executors and the shell companies themselves, asking for unspecified damages for medical and psychological expenses, trauma, humiliation and other injuries suffered as recently as 2017, according to Bloomberg. Among the companies named in all three suits are one that owned Epstein’s Manhattan mansion until 2011; his money-management firm, Financial Trust Co.; and HBRK Associates Inc., which allegedly helped arrange travel for Epstein’s accusers between New York and Florida. A Richard Kahn was listed as the registered agent for HBRK in New York state corporate filings in 2008.Two of the complaints name as a defendant the company that once owned Little St. James, the smaller of Epstein’s private islands in the Caribbean. Little St. James was one of the locations from which Epstein ran a “complex commercial sex trafficking and abuse ring,” according to the lawsuits. ...The defendants include the executors, Darren Indyke and Richard Kahn, lawyers who were directors for a nonprofit Epstein had in the U.S. Virgin Islands called Gratitude America. -BloombergTwo of the women, "Katlyn Doe" and "Lisa Doe" claim to have met Epstein when they were seventeen. The third, "Priscilla Doe" says she was 20. The t  hree say Epstein used a "vast enterprise" of associates working "in concert and at his direction, for the purpose of harming teenage girls through sexual exploitation, abuse and trafficking. Notably, the new suits claim that all of this happened after his deal with federal prosecutors in Florida in 2007.  Epstein's complicit associates include "chefs, butlers, receptionists, schedulers, secretaries, flight attendants, pilots, housekeepers, maids, sex recruiters, drivers and other staff members," according to the suits.

After Allegations Of Druggings And Rape, Epstein-Pal And His Modeling Agencies Come Into Focus -  Following the death of Jeffrey Epstein, his seedy network of friends and potential co-conspirators alike have come into the spotlight.   One associate, considered to be Epstein's closest pal, is modeling maven Jean-Luc Brunel - who has recently been accused of pimping underage women around the world through his Mc2 and Karin modeling agencies, while former models have accused the 72-year-old of drugging and date-raping girls, according to the Daily Beast.    Brunel was one of the financier’s most frequent male associates. The agent appears more than 15 times on flight logs from Epstein’s private plane, jetting everywhere from Paris to New York, often in the presence of young women. He visited Epstein nearly 70 times in jail, according to visitor logs, and several more times while the financier was on house arrest in Palm Beach. According to one of Epstein’s housemen, Brunel was comfortable enough to whip up his own meals in the financier’s kitchen, and was one of Epstein’s most frequent callers. -Daily Beast Brunel's name appeared in a cache of court documents unsealed earlier this month, having called and left a message to let Epstein know that he "just did a good one - 18 years" who reportedly told him "I love Jeffrey."   "He has a teacher for you to teach you how to speak Russian," reads another note from September 2005, which adds "She is 2 X 8 [16] years old not blonde. Lessons are free and you can have 1st today if you call." Epstein also extended a $1 million letter of credit to Brunel which was used to invest in Paris-based Elite Models.  Brunel says the venture fell apart after Elite Models learned of Epstein's sex-trafficking allegations - with the agent even suing Epstein in 2015 for tarnishing their reputation and causing a "tremendous loss of business." At least two people say Brunel not only knew about the sex trafficking, he was actively participating in it. Virginia Roberts (now Giuffre)—one of the first alleged victims to speak out against Epstein after he was granted a sweetheart plea deal—claimed in legal filings that Brunel was one of many powerful men she was forced to sleep with in her years as Epstein’s “sex slave.” She also accused Brunel of using his agency to find foreign girls, obtain visas for them, and “farm them out to his friends, including Epstein.” “A lot of the girls came from poor countries or poor backgrounds, and he lured them in with a promise of making good money,” Giuffre said in a 2015 affidavit. “Jeffrey Epstein has told me that he has slept with over 1,000 of Brunel’s girls, and everything that I have seen confirms this claim.” -Daily Beast

The Perverted Face of Elite America - Mere hours after pedo-to-the-stars Jeffrey Epstein was reported to have killed himself, the hash tag #ClintonBodyCount began circulating on Twitter, followed closely by #TrumpBodyCount. Both Bill Clinton and Donald Trump had been associates of Epstein’s; both, the thinking went, might have been desperate for him not to take the stand.It is wrong, of course, to publicly speculate that Epstein was whacked, given that all available evidence points to gross negligence on the part of the jail. But can you really blame people? Twenty-five years ago, if you’d said that a roll call of America’s elites, everyone from a former president to the most famous lawyer in the country, would be implicated in a sex trafficking ring masterminded by an enigmatic Wall Street financier who was also a member of the Trilateral Commission, you would have been laughed into the darkest corner of the local subway platform (next to the guy holding the “Vatican Hides Pedophiles” sign, presumably). Today, you’d be reading AP copy. Validate an improbable conspiracy theory, and you grant license to all the related improbable conspiracy theories: Bill Clinton flew dozens of times on the Lolita Express; was it really beyond him to order a hit? And if we know one thing about the Epstein story, it’s that everything about it is utterly improbable. Epstein stands credibly accused of assembling a veritable underage harem. One of his victims, Virginia Guiffre, has already implicated Prince Andrew, the third-born of Queen Elizabeth II, and a picture has since emerged showing the royal with his arm around the then-teenager’s waist. Guiffre says she was also ordered to have sex with, among others, a “foreign president,” a “well-known prime minister,” and a “large hotel chain owner.” Such an open secret was all this perversion that the current president of the United States made cheeky reference to it back in 2002. So invincible did Epstein think himself that he discussed underage sex openly, telling a New York Times reporter that laws against pedophilia were a “cultural aberration.”

Jeffrey Epstein Learned His Sexual Depravity from Wall Street; Then Took It to the Next Level – Pam Martens - From 1976 to 1981, Jeffrey Epstein worked for the Wall Street investment bank, Bear Stearns.  Bear Stearns collapsed in the early days of the 2008 financial crisis and was purchased by JPMorgan Chase. One of the last acts of Bear Stearns’ CEO, Jimmy Cayne, was to make a $2 million payment to a woman who charged that the legendary Chairman of Bear Stearns, Ace Greenberg, had engaged in “inappropriate touching.”  In a 2017 report by the New York Times, a former Managing Director of Bear Stearns, Maureen Sherry, reported that “…it was mostly the same men who preyed on young women.” In a 2016 report by Maureen Callahan at the New York Post, a former Bear Stearns’ employee reports that men at Bear Stearns were “getting bl*w jobs in front of staff – that happened all the time.” Claims that men at Bear were demanding sexual favors from female colleagues and getting away with it date all the way back to the 1980s.As more allegations emerge daily into the sexual assault horrors of Jeffrey Epstein and his band of enablers, a profile is emerging that bears a striking resemblance to how Wall Street has allowed its highest-producing brokers to behave toward vulnerable young female employees for decades. In both situations, there are the enablers; in both situations there is a failed justice system and powerful lawyers cutting deals; in both situations there are hundreds of different females asserting the same type of claims over a long period of time with no governmental authority stopping the abuse; and in both situations, powerful men who were an important cog in Wall Street’s insatiable quest for profits were allowed to walk away from a multitude of credible sexual assault allegations. Jeffrey Epstein’s major divergence from the sexual assaults by Wall Street brokers’ is that he preyed on underage girls. It is notable, however, that many Wall Street firms hire young women just out of high school to be “trained” to work in their branch offices. The sexual grooming is not as overt as in the Jeffrey Epstein cases, where the young girls were hired to give a massage and then told, over time, the massage had to be administered by them naked; and then, after more time, upped to a full-scale sexual assault. But young women in these Wall Street offices are sent a clear message by their Human Resources departments that they need to “get along” with those big producing brokers who generate outsized profits for the firm.

4 big questions ahead of Volcker 2.0 rollout — The industry is hopeful that changes are near to make the Volcker Rule more tolerable, but it remains to be seen if regulators will give the nation's largest banks all the relief they have sought under the proprietary trading ban. Five federal regulators are poised to finalize changes to the Dodd-Frank Act measure that they proposed in May 2018, with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. first up to consider the rule at a meeting Tuesday morning. The other agencies, including the Federal Reserve Board and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, are expected to follow soon. The May 2018 proposal uniquely garnered hostility from both the banking industry and consumer groups. Banks argued that revising the standard of prohibited trades would actually ban more trades. Proponents of the regulation — first devised by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker — voiced concern that Volcker 2.0 would undermine the post-crisis framework of supervision and enforcement. Some reports have indicated that the five agencies are poised to scrap key portions of their original proposal that banks opposed. The FDIC board meeting Tuesday should provide a long-awaited answer as to whether the agencies will maintain a standard abhorred by banks that bans trades with "short-term intent," or propose a new definition entirely. Yet that could be seen by some as a giveaway to Wall Street at a crucial point in the presidential campaign where prominent Democrats such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., have bemoaned the Trump administration’s treatment of large banks. In advance of the FDIC meeting, the Office of Financial Research released a report earlier this month that reinforced the financial industry’s case for regulatory relief by showing that the trading ban has weakened market liquidity. Here are four questions that are likely to frame the conversation around the Volcker Rule’s future:

• What will happen to the "rebuttable presumption"? Under the regulation, short-term intent is triggered for trades held for less than 60 days, which are prohibited. Yet banks can attempt to argue that such a short-term trade should be allowed. Bankers have fiercely opposed the "rebuttable presumption," but they appeared to oppose the agencies' proposed alternative even more. In their May 2018 plan, the regulators proposed a new standard applying the ban to accounts where trading instruments are recorded at fair value. But banks argued that the proposed accounting prong would actually cover a wider range of trading activities and assets and make the Volcker Rule even more burdensome.
• What other provisions besides the “trading account” definition will be in the final rule? Other proposed revisions drew less opposition from the industry than the “accounting prong.” But in other key areas, such as the scope of the “covered funds” definition limiting banks’ dealing with private-equity interests, financial institutions had urged the regulators to go much further.
• How will industry groups, progressives react? Whatever the regulators do to change the Volcker Rule will likely face criticism from industry and consumer groups alike. “I’m thinking this release tomorrow is going to be just enough to leave everyone angry,”
• Will the Fed and FDIC boards be unanimous in supporting the final rule? One potential yardstick for how far the regulators go in their final rule is the degree to which there is consensus among agency officials. Martin Gruenberg and Lael Brainard — the two members of the FDIC and Fed boards, respectively, appointed by the Obama administration — have opposed other regulatory relief initiatives undertaken by the agencies during the Trump administration. Yet the Volcker Rule was an exception. Both of them supported the May 2018 proposal, saying a revision of the compliance process was appropriate.

 Regulators scrap proposed Volcker Rule compliance standard — Regulators plan to scrap a proposed standard opposed by the industry for determining which proprietary trades are banned under the Volcker Rule. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board approved a final rule Tuesday that removes the so-called accounting prong. Last year, the agencies had proposed using fair value accounting as an alternative to the current standard, which financial services firms have also found burdensome. Instead, the final rule will revise the “rebuttable presumption,” the original standard implemented in 2013. At issue are the various methods regulators have provided banks to ensure their compliance with the trading ban, which was included in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. The revised short-term intent prong would stipulate that trades held for less than 60 days are in compliance. Trades held longer than 60 days would have a rebuttable presumption that they met the short-term intent prong. Meanwhile, banks that are subject to the market risk capital rule prong — which would remain largely unchanged from the original rule — would not be subject to the short-term intent prong. The final rule will maintain the three-tiered approach outlined in the 2018 proposal meant to tailor compliance requirements. However, the regulators plan to raise the threshold in the toughest “significant” compliance category from $10 billion of trading assets and liabilities to $20 billion. This change would reduce costs for banks with that engage in little or no proprietary trading, the FDIC said in the final rule. With the new $20 billion threshold, about 93% of trading assets and liabilities in the U.S. financial system would be held by banks in the “significant” category. The final rule would also adopt changes from the proposal that expand exemptions for underwriting, market-making and risk-mitigating hedging activities. But the agencies also plan to issue a subsequent proposal that would address the "covered funds" definition more substantively.

 What's left of the Volcker Rule after the final rewrite? — There was little doubt Tuesday after two regulatory agencies approved changes to the Volcker Rule that banks had prevailed in a long policy fight over one of the cornerstones of the Dodd-Frank Act. The debate immediately turned to whether the agencies had done the right thing, and that is an argument that could endure for some time. The proprietary trading ban — which was first devised by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, then working on behalf of the Obama administration — was implemented as part of the post-crisis regime to prevent banks from making risky short-term bets. But regulators' effort in May of 2018 to ease the compliance burden and clarify the requirements was met with hostility from banks and consumer groups. The final rule adopted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency scrapped the so-called accounting prong that financial institutions had railed against. Defenders of Dodd-Frank said they were left uneasy about the integrity of the banking system. “Given the severe narrowing of the scope of financial instruments subject to the Volcker Rule under the final rule before the FDIC board today, the Volcker Rule will no longer impose a meaningful constraint on speculative proprietary trading by banks and bank holding companies benefiting from the public safety net,” said former FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, who remains a member of the agency’s board and voted against the final rule. For those who agree with Gruenberg — who voted in favor of the original proposal back in May 2018 when he was chairman — the final rule goes even further to weaken Volcker. “It differs in a big way from the original proposal. The original proposal didn’t calculate the scope of the Volcker Rule based just on the label the banks put on it,” said Marcus Stanley, the policy director of Americans for Financial Reform. “That really is a very good indicator of whether they’re going to trade, but the banks blew up. … They basically got everything they wanted in the final rule.”

R.I.P. Dodd-Frank: Wall Street Is Unleashed — Again --Pam Martens and Russ Martens ~ Yesterday the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulator of national banks, and the FDIC, which provides the taxpayer-backstopped Federal insurance to deposits at these banks, announced that they were going to “simplify” the Volcker Rule. Under the Trump administration, “simplify” is code for “gut.” The Volcker Rule was part of the 2010 financial reform legislation known as Dodd-Frank. It outlawed deposit-taking banks from using those deposits to make wild gambles for the house, known as proprietary trading. It also required the banks to end their ownership of hedge funds and private equity funds where the banks can secretly dump losing positions or hide enormous losses in hard to price instruments.  Wall Street hated the Volcker Rule so much that it made sure the rule never came into being. It has stonewalled the implementation of the rule for nine years and one month. Now the rule has been stripped of all of its meaningful components. The gutting of the Volcker Rule was snuck through in the dog days of summer as families are busy getting kids ready to return to school. Five years ago, as families were busy preparing for the Christmas holidays, Citigroup’s lobbyists pushed through the repeal of the second most important aspect of Dodd-Frank. It was called the “push-out” rule which would have forced banks to move their tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives out of the Federally-insured bank unit into another unit that could be placed into bankruptcy or wound-down in the event of insolvency. By keeping these dangerous derivatives in the Federally-insured bank, Wall Street effectively guaranteed itself another bailout if it blew up the U.S. economy again.

Warren: Trump DOJ settlements let big banks off easy --Sen. Elizabeth Warren is demanding information from the Justice Department about actions that Trump administration officials took last year to reduce the penalties against two large banks that sold faulty mortgages to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis.“These weak settlements send a clear message to financial institutions and white-collar criminals that they can evade accountability as long as they are wealthy and well connected,” wrote Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, in a letter Monday to Attorney General William Barr. “It is unconscionable that the Administration is refusing to hold corporate criminals fully accountable for their role in the financial crisis.” Political appointees at the DOJ’s headquarters in Washington, D.C., overruled the judgments of staff prosecutors who wanted Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland to pay substantially higher penalties than they ultimately did, according to a story published earlier this month by American Banker and ProPublica. Warren, who is running for president, cited that article in her letter to Barr. Warren requested copies of emails between high-level officials at Main Justice, as the department’s headquarters is known, and lawyers for the two banks. She also asked Barr to hand over written communications between Main Justice and the U.S. attorney’s offices in Boston and Brooklyn, which separately handled the two cases. And she asked the attorney general to explain whether officials from Main Justice gave suggestions, recommendations or orders to staff prosecutors. A DOJ spokeswoman said Monday that the department had received Warren’s letter and was reviewing it. Both settlements were finalized before Barr became attorney general in February. Neither Barclays nor RBS immediately responded to a request for comment. In the original article by American Banker and ProPublica, an RBS spokesperson said the bank had requested “fairness and parity” from the Justice Department.Warren sent similar letters Monday to the U.S. attorney’s offices in the District of Massachusetts and the Eastern District of New York, seeking more information about the involvement of officials from Main Justice. Spokespeople for those two offices declined to comment. The cases originated during the Obama administration and involved accusations that the banks misled buyers of residential mortgage-backed securities prior to the 2008 crisis. Mortgages that went into the two banks’ securities lost a total of $73 billion, according to calculations used by the government.

Warren wants answers from Wells Fargo on closed-account fees - Sen. Elizabeth Warren. D-Mass., is demanding that Wells Fargo explain a report that accounts closed by consumers had been keep active and as a result triggered overdraft fees. Warren, who is running for the Democratic presidential nomination, wrote in a letter Monday to acting Wells CEO Allen Parker that the San Francisco bank is “still fundamentally broken” years after its fake-accounts scandal in 2016 despite promises to improve risk management. "These new revelations raise grave concerns that despite these assurances, Wells Fargo is still fundamentally broken and has not only continued to scam customers out of thousands of dollars with impunity, but has even targeted customers who were attempting to leave the bank — and may have been victims of previous scams — to unfairly collect one final set of lucrative fees for Wells Fargo," Warren wrote in the letter. The New York Times reported last week that Wells routinely kept accounts open even though consumers had acted to close them. Customers had transferred their money out of the bank, but their accounts still accrued overdraft fees, the paper reported. Warren asked that Parker respond to questions about the incident by Sept. 3 and that her staff be briefed on the matter no later than Sept. 12. Warren also wants Wells to waive supervisory privilege so she and her staff can obtain information about the latest incident from federal regulators. Warren wrote that other banks typically stop all transactions when an account is closed. "This new report suggests that rather than truly committing itself to vital reforms, Wells Fargo is still scamming customers, charging them fees on accounts they thought were closed," Warren wrote. "This greed has boosted the company's bottom line, but left customers with lasting negative effects." Wells did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this article. Sub

 Postal banking won’t deliver for USPS  - Despite another quarter of surging net losses at the U.S. Postal Service, leadership is all too eager to plunge the agency into even more debt.  During its board of governors meeting on Aug. 9, key executives suggested that the USPS be “bold and creative” in saving the agency and paying down the more than $10 billion in debt it owes to the U.S. Treasury.  The solution by Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York is to create an outlandish system of “postal banking,” in which consumers would be able to deposit their money at post offices; and consumers, as well as businesses, would be able to get loans from the agency.   But the USPS’ existing financial services are quickly losing revenue, and more sophisticated products such as loans would be no different. Instead of pursuing postal banking, USPS should be truly bold and creative by cutting down on billions of dollars in waste. Between plunging first-class mail volumes and e-commerce giants taking last-mile package deliveries into their own hands, USPS’ situation appears hopeless at first glance. And for every pressing public policy problem, there’s bound to be a billion bizarre suggested fixes. The USPS’ dysfunction is pretty obvious, and making it into a bank wouldn’t make things better.  Even the agency’s employee-run credit unions oppose the move — the National Council of Postal Credit Unions board chair Becca Cuddy argued that “rather than try to reinvent the wheel,” postal credit unions could expand their reach to new consumers through bank partnerships.   The U.S. Treasury also concluded in their task force report on USPS finances that “expanding into sectors where the USPS does not have a comparative advantage or where balance sheet risk might arise, such as postal banking, should not be pursued.” The USPS is already knee-deep in financial services and the results aren’t pretty. Consumers can bank with the USPS by heading to a post office and writing themselves a money order or cashing a money order whenever they would like (max $1,000 per money order for $1.70).  Consumers can also opt to send others cash through money orders, and recipients can cash the money order at their nearest post office. The USPS then operates a simple bank at a negative interest rate.

Insurance Companies Are Paying Cops To Investigate Their Own Customers --When police showed up at Harry Schmidt's home on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, he thought they were there to help. He was still mourning the disappearance of the beloved forest green Ford F-150 pickup that he’d customized with a gun storage cabinet, and he hoped the cops had solved the crime.Instead, the officers accused him of faking the theft. The Vietnam veteran was now facing up to seven years in prison. Schmidt was stunned, but he was even more upset when he found out who had turned him in.  Erie Insurance, one of the nation’s largest auto insurers, had not only provided the cops with evidence against its own loyal customer — it had actively worked with them to try to convict him of insurance fraud. Erie had even paid part of the salary of the lead detective who knocked on Schmidt’s door that day, as well as that of the prosecutor who went on to charge him with felony insurance fraud. And it would also secretly cover the costs of an expert witness to testify against Schmidt in court.  Schmidt found himself the target of an extraordinary alliance between private insurers and public law enforcement agencies — one that transforms routine claims into criminal evidence, premium-paying customers into suspects, and the justice system into a hired gun for a multibillion-dollar industry. It’s an arrangement essentially unheard of in other businesses, and one rife with potential conflicts of interest, as well as grave consequences for law-abiding customers. A BuzzFeed News investigation has found that Erie, State Farm, Farmers, and other giant home and auto insurers around the country have co-opted law enforcement to intimidate and prosecute their own customers — tactics that can help companies boost their profits and avoid paying claims.

 Beware Of The $5 Trillion Corporate Debt Wall Due Through 2024 -- S&P Global Ratings is now warning about $5.2 trillion in corporate debt coming due through 2024, reported International Financing Review (IFR).  The $5.2 trillion includes bonds, loans, and revolving credit facilities from financial and non-financial companies in the US. It represents almost half of the global rated debt expected to mature during the period. S&P said despite market volatility, recent issuance of bonds and loans had been more than enough to meet future maturity demands.  "We expect maturities to be largely manageable," Sudeep Kesh, head of credit market research at S&P Global Ratings told IFR.  "The recent Fed rate cut, and expectations of another rate cut in September will support a benign financing environment in the near term."  This comes as J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI has slipped under 50 for much of the summer, and a growth rate cycle slowdown in the US economy forced investors to invert the 2s10s yield curve last week, increasing fears of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months.  "There is a constant push and pull between central banks lowering rates, and deteriorating economic conditions. We don't see that going away soon," said Kesh.  "Spreads are still quite a bit tighter than they were earlier in the year," he said. "Recent weakness is not that pronounced other than at the very low end of the credit spectrum, which tends to always have some pressure."  IFR said investors are terrified that corporate leverage is at record highs. Lower rates will allow firms to refinance existing debt and push out near term maturities to kick the can down the road even more.  IFR referenced another recent report from S&P that said median debt-to-Ebitda for Triple B and Double B rated public companies is back at levels not seen since 2006. Triple B debt remains the most significant imbalance in the corporate debt space, at least 50% (or $4 trillion) of corporate debt falls under the tranche.

Negative-yielding corporate debt poses risks for investors ‘unlike anything they’ve ever seen’ -- Government bonds aren’t the only instruments producing negative yields these days, with corporate debt recently passing the $1 trillion mark in a continuing sign of global financial displacement. Investors these days are facing huge amounts of fixed income instruments that carry no yield. Various estimates of sovereign debt in that category put the total in excess of $15 trillion, a number that has been escalating over the past several years while central banks drive interest rates to zero and below. Negative-yielding corporate debt, though, is a relatively new thing, rising from just $20 billion in January to pass the $1 trillion mark recently, according to Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. The trend poses a potentially dangerous threat, especially if market winds shift and bond holders looking for price gains rather than yield get stuck holding too much risk. “The interest rate risk that these bonds carry is huge,” Bianco said in a recent interview. “The financial system doesn’t work with negative rates. If the economy recovers, the losses that investors would take are unlike anything they’ve ever seen.” Negative yields have been confined to places outside the U.S., though some Federal Reserve officials have toyed with the idea at least in a hypothetical sense. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan recently jolted some investors when he said there was nothing actually standing in the way of negative U.S. rates. Most of the negative-yielding corporate debt is in Switzerland, while some also is in Japan, Bianco said.Investors don’t actually pay to borrow money, but the negative yield is symbolic of how much above par investors are willing to pay for these bonds. That’s because those who buy negative-yielding bonds are essentially makinga bet that rates will stay low and prices will rise, which is the traditional relationship when it comes to fixed income. Should rates start to rise even a little, that will start to eat into the capital appreciation that bond holders have been enjoying.

Business Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote ‘An Economy That Serves All Americans’ - Business Roundtable today announced the release of a new Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation signed by 181 CEOs who commit to lead their companies for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders.Since 1978, Business Roundtable has periodically issued Principles of Corporate Governance. Each version of the document issued since 1997 has endorsed principles of shareholder primacy – that corporations exist principally to serve shareholders. With today’s announcement, the new Statement supersedes previous statements and outlines a modern standard for corporate responsibility. “The American dream is alive, but fraying,” said Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Chairman of Business Roundtable. “Major employers are investing in their workers and communities because they know it is the only way to be successful over the long term. These modernized principles reflect the business community’s unwavering commitment to continue to push for an economy that serves all Americans.”“This new statement better reflects the way corporations can and should operate today,” added Alex Gorsky, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Johnson & Johnson and Chair of the Business Roundtable Corporate Governance Committee. “It affirms the essential role corporations can play in improving our society when CEOs are truly committed to meeting the needs of all stakeholders.”

Nearly 200 CEOs say shareholder value is no longer a main objective - Shareholder value is no longer the main focus of some of America’s top business leaders. The Business Roundtable, a group of chief executive officers from major U.S. corporations, issued a statement Monday with a new definition of the “purpose of a corporation.” The reimagined idea of a corporation drops the age-old notion that corporations function first and foremost to serve their shareholders and maximize profits. Rather, investing in employees, delivering value to customers, dealing ethically with suppliers and supporting outside communities are now at the forefront of American business goals, according to the statement. “While each of our individual companies serves its own corporate purpose, we share a fundamental commitment to all of our stakeholders,” said the statement signed by 181 CEOs. “We commit to deliver value to all of them, for the future success of our companies, our communities and our country.” The conscience of Wall Street has been at the forefront of American business and politics recently as issues about economic equality and fair business practices dominate the 2020 election stage and the overall news cycle. The Business Roundtable, founded in 1972, has put out many statements on the principles of corporate governance since the late 1970s. It said this new definition “supersedes” past statements and outlines a “modern standard for corporate responsibility.” “The American dream is alive, but fraying,” Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase and chairman of Business Roundtable, said in a press release. Along with Dimon, the statement received signatures from chiefs including Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Apple’s Tim Cook, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, Dennis A. Muilenburg of Boeing and GM’s Mary Barra.

House Democrats ask CFPB to abandon payday rule overhaul - House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters and 101 House Democrats have asked the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to reconsider the agency’s overhaul of the 2017 payday rule. Waters urged CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger in a letter Friday to allow for mandatory underwriting provisions that would be eliminated under a new proposal the CFPB issued in February. “We think you should immediately rescind the harmful proposal to roll back the 2017 Payday rule,” Waters said in a press release. “The Consumer Bureau's proposal represents a betrayal of its statutory purpose and objectives to put consumers, rather than lenders, first. The Bureau has offered no new evidence and no rational basis to remove the ability-to-repay provisions.” Waters and the other lawmakers also asked Kraninger to urge a Texas judge to life his stay on a separate provision in the rule — payment restrictions that limit to two consecutive attempts how often a lender can access a consumer’s checking account. In the Texas court case, a payday lender and a payday trade group are challenging the 2017 final rule. It is unlikely Waters' letter will have an impact on the agency's decision given that Kraninger and other CFPB officials have defended their move to eliminate the underwriting provision. The CFPB has claimed that an earlier study of payday lenders was not strong enough to justify strict underwriting requirements of small-dollar loans. The study the CFPB relied upon did not address vehicle title loans — which are covered by the rule — and was limited to data collected from one payday lender in five states.

The Leaning Towers Of Metropolis by Danielle DiMartino Booth by Quill Intelligence

• From the trough of post-crisis valuation, apartment prices have been the key driver in overall CRE price increases as apartment prices have risen nearly three times the average across the broad sector
• Luxury apartments have been a key driver in this cycle as nine in ten apartments were luxury in 2018 versus 52% in 2012; the luxury market is more susceptible to economic uncertainty as reflected by the decline in the Architectural Building Index
• While new home starts have been declining and disappointing results from homebuilders are being reported, existing home sales have seen some modest improvements in response to declining mortgage rates; affordability and uncertainty may cap the upside housing

Why harp on apartments when single-family residential real estate is what moves the GDP needle? Let’s just say that the current cycle redefines multifamily’s contribution to GDP. The term “rentership nation” did not come about without a huge movement into apartment living. The catch is that a repressed interest rate environment challenges IRRs outside the construction of high rises to the sky. And that’s exactly what’s transpired: Nearly nine in ten apartments constructed in 2018 were luxury units. That compares to 52% in 2012 before QE priced anything rational out of the market.  The stutter-stop downward move in Architectural Billings for apartments you see above has unsurprisingly tracked down housing starts as a whole, which have been dominated by…apartments in the current cycle. While that’s still the case, the organization issued the following warning: “A growing number of architecture firms are reporting that the ongoing volatility in the trade situation, the stock market, and interest rates are causing some of their clients to proceed more cautiously on current projects.”  Where does single-family fit into this equation? In short, it’s been largely absent compared to its multifamily peer. Home sales have also weakened even as multifamily has hung in there. That, you may have noted, changed for the better yesterday morning. It took nearly a full percentage point decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, but traction has finally been achieved. For the first time in 17 months, existing home sales rose a fraction over the prior 12 months in July.

Trade War: Wall Street Titans Ditch US Farmers -- Here's another thing for Trump to tweet about: amid his trade war hysterics, he's somehow overlooked bellyaching about large Wall Street banking concerns getting rid of their agricultural loan portfolios as  quickly as possible. Just as the government is extending more financial supports to farmers--probably WTO illegal--so it probably will have to provide more loans as well as private lenders cower in fear: [A]fter years of falling farm income and an intensifying U.S.-China trade war - JPMorgan and other Wall Street banks are heading for the exits, according to a Reuters analysis of the farm-loan holdings they reported to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The agricultural loan portfolios of the nation’s top 30 banks fell by $3.9 billion, to $18.3 billion, between their peak in December 2015 and March 2019, the analysis showed. That’s a 17.5% decline.   The retreat from agricultural lending by the nation’s biggest banks, which has not been previously reported, comes as shrinking cash flow is pushing some farmers to retire early and others to declare bankruptcy, according to farm economists, legal experts, and a review of hundreds of lawsuits filed in federal and state courts.   Meanwhile, farm bankruptcy claims are going through the roof at the wrong time as commercial banks are increasingly unwilling to lend to this sector just as demand for loans to keep them afloat is increasing: Chapter 12 federal court filings, a type of bankruptcy protection largely for small farmers, increased from 361 filings in 2014 to 498 in 2018, according to federal court records. “My phone is ringing constantly. It’s all farmers,” said Minneapolis-St. Paul area bankruptcy attorney Barbara May. “Their banks are calling in the loans and cutting them off.” The reason why commercial banks are ditching farmers en masse is easy to understand: they likely can't pay back their loans during these times of Trump-induced agricultural distress:

Midwest Farm Loan Repayment Issues Hit Highest Level Since 1999 -- Reuters examined a new farm survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Thursday that detailed farm loans at Midwest banks are having the most repayment difficulties in 20 years in 2Q19. Following six years of falling farm income and rising debt levels, and the recent addition of record floods across the Farm Belt and the trade war between the US and China, a farm crisis on par to the 1980s could be imminent. "The portion of the 7th District's agricultural loan portfolio reported as having 'major' or 'severe' repayment problems (6.2%) had not been higher in the second quarter of a year since 1999," the report said. The drop in farm incomes has also weighted on property values, which sank 2% in 2Q19 after being adjusted for inflation, the 7th Federal Reserve District said in the report. The district includes Iowa, portions of northern Illinois and Indiana, southern Wisconsin and the lower peninsula of Michigan. Iowa in 2Q19 recorded a 3% dip in farmland values, the most significant price drop in the district. The 7th district as a whole registered the first YoY declines in farmland values since 3Q17. The bank expected farmland prices to stabilize in the short term with interest rates moving lower.The Chicago Fed said the availability of credit to farmers was quickly diminishing but said loan demand was higher in the quarter on a YoY basis. What's happening is that Wall Street banks are winding down risky lending to farmers because incomes continue to deteriorate. Farmers are now taking on more leveraged as incomes and spot commodity prices continue to slump; this is a recipe for disaster ahead of the next recession. The report said at least 70% of farms in the 7th district were significantly impacted by the flooding in spring and the adverse weather conditions this summer, with much of the impact situated in Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.Record floods compounded more pain for farmers who have already been dealing with a plunge in spot crop prices and a trade war that has resulted in China halting all US agriculture products.

Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies See Strong Recovery from June Spike" --- From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: July Prepayment Activity Hits Highest Level Since 2016; Mortgage Delinquencies See Strong Recovery from June Spike

• Prepayment activity jumped 26% from June to its highest level in nearly three years and 58% above this time last year as falling interest rates continue to fuel refinance incentive
• The national delinquency rate fell by 7% in July, offsetting the bulk of June’s calendar-related spike
• At 3.46%, July 2019’s delinquency rate is the lowest of any July on record (dating back to 2000)
• Both serious delinquencies (-11,000) and active foreclosure inventory (-1,000) fell as well
• Serious delinquencies (all loans 90 or more days delinquent but not in active foreclosure) fell below 445,000 for the first time since June 2006

According to Black Knight's First Look report for July, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 7.3% in July compared to June, and decreased 4.3% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 0.5% in July and were down 13.2% over the last year.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 16, 2019.... The Refinance Index increased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 180 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago....“In a week where worries over global economic growth drove U.S. Treasury yields 13 basis points lower, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased just three basis points. As a result, the refinance index saw only a slight increase but remained at its highest level since July 2016,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The small moves in rates and refinancing are potentially signs that lenders may be approaching capacity constraints as they continue to deal with the largest wave of refinance activity in three years.The refinance share of applications, at almost 63 percent, was also at its highest level since September 2016.”Added Kan, “Lower mortgage rates have yet to lead to a notable rise in homebuyer demand. Purchase applications fell more than 3 percent, but were still 5 percent higher than a year ago.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 3.90 percent from 3.93 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The inverted yield curve is doing something weird to mortgage rates - -- The inverted yield curve isn’t just spooking people over a possible recession – it’s doing weird things to mortgage rates, too. Traditionally, adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, offer lower interest rates than fixed-rate loans, because they are slightly riskier, and borrowers don’t want to pay more for more risk. ARMs can carry a fixed rate for five, seven or 10 years, and most today require some principal payment as well. No matter what the length of the fixed-rate term, they are all amortized over 30 years, so the payments will be relatively comparable to fixed-rate loans. It is therefore very odd to suddenly see ARMs showing higher interest rates than the traditional 30-year fixed, which is what Bankrate.com is currently showing for average purchase mortgage rates. Refinance rates are still lower for ARMs. So what’s going on? First, ARM rates are all over the place lender to lender because they are a very small percentage of new loan originations today, around 6% of total mortgage application volume, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. “The averages you see on the site are based on what quotes have been posted to the site, so small and inconsistent sample size on the ARMs,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “Our weekly national survey on the other hand, does show what we’d expect to see – ARM rates lower than fixed. The gap isn’t big of course, as we’ve got a flat to inverted yield curve, but the traditional relationship holds.” And that’s precisely what is so interesting — that flat to inverted yield curve. The gap between ARMs and fixed-rate loans is now really small because of the inverted yield curve, which, without getting too technical, is a rare scenario where long-term interest rates suddenly fall below short-term interest rates. In the past, an inverted yield curve has signaled an impending recession. “Longer-term rates (like the 30-year mortgage) are now equal to or lower than one-year rates (like the indexes used with most ARMs),” explained Guy Cecala, publisher and CEO of Inside Mortgage Finance. “Bad time to get an ARM.”

Housing Inventory Tracking --Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. Inventory, on a national basis, was unchanged year-over-year (YoY) in June.  That followed  ten consecutive months with a YoY increase.The graph below shows the YoY change for non-contingent i nventory in Houston, Las Vegas, and Sacramento and Phoenix (through July), and total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (through June). The black line is the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR.Note that inventory was up 71% YoY in Las Vegas in July (red), the thirteenth consecutive month with a YoY increase.  But the YoY change is slowing.Houston is a special case, and inventory was up for several years due to lower oil prices, but declined when oil prices increased.  Inventory was up 9.7% year-over-year in Houston in July. Inventory is a key for the housing market.  Right now it appears the inventory build that started last year has ended.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in July - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Climb 2.5% in July - Existing-home sales strengthened in July, a positive reversal after total sales were down slightly in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although Northeast transactions declined, the other three major U.S. regions recorded sales increases, including vast growth in the West last month. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 2.5% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July. Overall sales are up 0.6% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2018). ... Total housing inventory at the end of July decreased to 1.89 million, down from 1.92 million existing-homes available for sale in June, and a 1.6% decrease from 1.92 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from the 4.4 month-supply recorded in June and down from the 4.3-month supply recorded in July of 2018.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in July (5.42 million SAAR) were up 2.5% from last month, and were 0.6% above the July 2018 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.89 million in July from 1.92 million in June. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was down 1.6% year-over-year in July compared to July 2018. Months of supply decreased to 4.2 months in July. This was at the consensus forecast. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low.

Existing-Home Sales Strengthened in July - This morning's release of the July Existing-Home Sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million units from the previous month's revised 5.29M. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.39 million. The latest number represents a 2.5% increase from the previous month and a 0.6% increase year-over-year.Here is an excerpt from today's report from the National Association of Realtors. “Falling mortgage rates are improving housing affordability and nudging buyers into the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. However, he added that the supply of affordable housing is severely low. “The shortage of lower-priced homes have markedly pushed up home prices.” [Full Report]For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository and is now only available from January 2018. It can be found here.Over this time frame, we clearly see the Real Estate Bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession. Now let's examine the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show an 18.6% increase in the US population since the turn of the century. The snapshot below is an overlay of the NAR's annualized estimates with a population-adjusted version. Existing-home sales are 3.6% above the NAR's January 2000 estimate. The population-adjusted version is 11.6% below the turn-of-the-century sales. We've added a chart for the last 12 months of Existing-home sales median prices for single-family homes for reference.

Existing Home Sales Rise Year-Over-Year, Break 16-Month Losing-Streak - Existing home sales were expected to rebound 2.5% in July after sliding 1.7% in June (while new- and pending-home sales bounced), and hit the number spot on (despite a small upward revision in June to -1.3% MoM. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased in July to a five-month high. And, after 16 straight months of declines, existing home sales managed to rise (+0.6%) on a year-over-year basis... The median sales price increased 4.3% from a year earlier to $280,800. The July gain reflected “incredibly low mortgage rates and strong job market conditions,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a briefing in Washington. The decline in sales during the first half of the year will probably be reversed by December, he said. Home sales improved in three of the four U.S. regions, led by an 8.3% surge in the West; the 1.18 million pace in the West was the strongest in a year. And while existing home sales have rebounded as mortgage rates plunged, the marginal benefit appears to be fading fast. But still, Powell should cut 100bps to save the "best economy ever."

Comments on July Existing Home Sales -- Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.42 million in July  A few key points:
1) Existing home sales were up 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in July.  This was the first YoY increase since early 2018.
2) Inventory is still low, and was down 1.6% year-over-year (YoY) in July.
3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer (barely this month) to the NAR report than the consensus. See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July.   The consensus was for sales of 5.39 million SAAR.  Lawler estimated the NAR would report 5.40 million SAAR in July, and the NAR actually reported 5.42 million SAAR.
4) Year-to-date sales are down about 2.9% compared to the same period in 2018.   On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.20 million in 2019.  Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown.
The comparisons will be easier towards the end of this year, and with lower mortgage rates, sales might even finish the year unchanged or even up from 2018. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Sales NSA in July (540,000, red column) were above sales in July 2018 (528,000, NSA), and were the highest sales for July since 2015.

New Home Sales Down 12.8% in July -- This morning's release of the July New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 635K, down 12.8% month-over-month from a revised 728K in June.  Here is the opening from the report:  Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.8 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised June rate of 728,000, but is 4.3 percent (±14.0 percent)* above the July 2018 estimate of 609,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2019 was $312,800. The average sales price was $388,000. [Full Report]   For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which is produced in conjunction with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The data since January 1963 is available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository here. We've included a six-month moving average to highlight the trend in this highly volatile series.  Over this time frame, we see the steady rise in new home sales following the 1990 recession and the acceleration in sales during the real estate bubble that peaked in 2005.  Now let's examine the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show a 75.1% increase in the US population since 1963. Here is a chart of new home sales as a percent of the population.

New Home Sales decreased to 635,000 Annual Rate in July, Sales in June revised up to New Cycle High - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 635 thousand. The previous three months were revised up combined.  June was revised up to a new cycle high. "Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.8 percent below the revised June rate of 728,000, but is 4.3 percent above the July 2018 estimate of 609,000." The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply increased in July to 6.4 months from 5.5 months in June.The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is at the top of the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal). "The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 337,000. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate." Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In July 2019 (red column), 53 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 52 thousand homes were sold in July.The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010. This was slightly below expectations of 645 thousand sales SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.

July new home sales disappoint, but improving trend intact - New home sales came in this morning at a light 655,000 annualized for July, the second lowest monthly amount this year. But at the same time, sales remain clearly higher than their bottom at the end of last year. This metric is very volatile and heavily revised, so I pay less attention to it than permits and starts. In the two graphs below, it is shown in blue, and compared with inventory of new homes for sale (red, right scale): Note that sales clearly lead inventory. The below close-up of the past 5 years bears this out: Sales are already recovering, while inventory remains slightly off its peak. Prices (gold in the graph below, measured as YoY% change) usually lag sales (blue), but last year they followed sales down almost immediately, and remain negative YoY: The combination of lower prices and lower mortgage rates should help out the rebound in sales from the end of last year. Meanwhile, the economically less important existing home sales, reported earlier this week, continued to rebound: Housing is flashing weak positive signs for economic growth next year. The question remains whether it will be enough to overcome other headwinds, like a decline in corporate profits and a stall in capital expenditures.

A few Comments on July New Home Sales - New home sales for July were reported at 635,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up, combined.Sales for June were revised up to a new cycle high.Annual sales in 2019 should be the best year for new home sales since 2007. This graph shows new home sales for 2018 and 2019 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).Sales in July were up 4.3% year-over-year compared to July 2018.Year-to-date (through July), sales are up 4.1% compared to the same period in 2018.The second half comparisons will be easier, so sales should be higher in 2019 than in 2018.And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales. The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through June 2019. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.Even though distressed sales are down significantly, following the bust, new home builders focused on more expensive homes - so the gap has only closed slowly.I still expect this gap to close.   However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Continues Its Streak of Soft Readings" - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Continues Its Streak of Soft Readings: Demand for design services in July remained essentially flat in comparison to the previous month, according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 50.1 in July showed a small increase in design services since June, which was a score of 49.1. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. In July, the design contracts score dipped into negative territory for the first time in almost a year. Additionally, July billings softened in all regions except the West, and at firms of all specializations except multifamily residential.“The data is not the same as what we saw leading up to the last economic downturn but the continued, slowing across the board will undoubtedly impact architecture firms and the broader construction industry in the coming months,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “A growing number of architecture firms are reporting that the ongoing volatility in the trade situation, the stock market, and interest rates are causing some of their clients to proceed more cautiously on current projects.”
• Regional averages: West (51.2); Midwest (48.9); South (48.3); Northeast (48.3)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (50.6); institutional (49.8); commercial/industrial (49.2); mixed practice (48.9)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.1 in July, up from 49.1 in June. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for 10 of the previous 12 months, suggesting some further increase in CRE investment in 2019 - but this is the weakest five month stretch since 2012.

Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs -- Home Depot’s suppliers are trying to head off some of the increased costs from rising tariffs by moving at least some of their production out of China, executives told investors Tuesday. “I’m not aware of a single supplier who was not moving some form of manufacturing outside of China,” said Ted Decker, executive vice president of merchandising. “So we have suppliers moving production to Taiwan, to Vietnam, to Thailand, Indonesia and even back into the United States.” CEO Craig Menear said the tariffs on Chinese goods are projected to have a “cost impact” on U.S. sales of about 2%, or $2 billion. With suppliers moving at least some of their manufacturing outside of China, that reduces that impact by roughly one percentage point, executives said. Zachary Feldman, an analyst at Wells Fargo, said the cost impact refers to what the company pays for the merchandise it sells. The company will have to price in a roughly 2% increase in cost of sales to account for the tariffs without the actions suppliers are taking to mitigate that damage.

Recession fears: RV shipments down double digits in Elkhart, Indiana - Economists like to use the RV industry, which dominates the manufacturing city on the very northern edge of Indiana, as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. And the news coming out of Elkhart is giving some plenty of reason to be worried. Total wholesale shipments of recreation vehicles are down 20.3 percent, year to date, across the industry, signaling to some Indiana economists that a recession is on the way. Companies such as Elkhart-based Thor Industries Inc. have slashed production and cut back the work week to slow the pace of production. Economists reading the tea leaves for signs of a recession have typically held declining RV shipments as a strong warning of a contracting U.S. economy. Trade war hits home: Indiana farmers were already hurting. Then the US-China trade war got even uglier. And that's not the only warning sign flashing in Indiana, said Ball State economist Michael Hicks, who tracks the RV sector. He listed the state's peaking manufacturing employment, the nation's declining auto sales numbers and disruptions in international trade as other indicators of an economic downturn. "I think Indiana's economy is far more susceptible to this downturn than most states," Hicks said. "I think there's evidence that Indiana is well ahead of the U.S. economy in moving towards recession."

Next Domino To Fall- Inventory Glut Plagues US Auto Sector, New Prices Plunge In July -  China, Europe, and India, some of the world's largest industrial hubs for automobile manufacturing, have shuttered factories, laid-off workers and reduced average workweek hours, all due to an industrial slowdown that originated in the Eastern hemisphere in late 2017, early 2018. The industrial downturn has spread from East to West, now infecting the US economy. So far US auto manufacturers have weathered the synchronized slowdown, but in a new report by Reuters, headwinds for the industry are starting to mount in 2H19. Federal Reserve data shows auto vehicle and parts production was up 3.7% in the three months from May to July YoY. This is far better than the rest of manufacturing was down by 0.3% in May-July YoY, which was the fastest rate of change to the downside since Sept. to Nov. 2016. Reuters noted growth rates in the auto industry started to come under pressure in 2H18 and 1Q19, but output, employment, and sales ticked higher by the end of April thanks to lower interest rates and springtime buying. Dealerships for the last several years have been able to boost vehicle prices to levels that could soon be considered resistance among consumers. New vehicle prices climbed 1% from March to May YoY, the fastest YoY increase from Sept. to Nov. 2013. But it seems prices have hit a barrier by mid/late summer, outpacing wages, as the consumer starts to pull back. The University of Michigan's monthly survey of consumers found that the number of people saying "it's a "bad time to buy" a new car because "prices are high" has been increasing this summer. Vehicle sales have since stalled in the three months May to June YoY, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. An auto glut is starting to form with dealership inventories at 1.77 months of sales in June, up from 1.55 months in the same month a year ago.

In The US, A Transportation Recession Has Already Officially Arrived - Throughout 2017 and most of 2018, U.S. freight shipment volume was booming, and that was a very strong sign that overall economic activity was rising.  But when economic activity begins to decline, freight shipment volume often goes negative, and that is precisely what is happening right now.  In fact, U.S. freight shipment volume has now declined on a year over year basis for eight months in a row… Freight shipments within the US by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – fell 5.9% in July 2019, compared to July 2018, the eighth month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments, which tracks shipments of consumer and industrial goods but not of bulk commodities such as grains. This decline along with the 6.0% drop in May were the steepest year-over-year declines in freight shipments since the Financial Crisis.  And other numbers confirm what the Cass Freight Index is telling us.  For example, ACT Research says that the trucking industry is officially in a recession after “two consecutive quarters of negative growth”…The trucking industry is officially in a recession, according to data tracked by ACT Research. After months of suggesting a pullback was possible, ACT President Kenny Vieth told FreightWaves on Thursday, July 11 that all metrics his firm tracks meet the technical definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth.“Every freight metric we look at has been negative for at least six months,” he said. Of course it is possible that the transportation industry could pull out of this recession without the U.S. economy as a whole dipping into one, but I wouldn’t count on it this time.

Boeing Jumps On Reuters Report Of Record 737 Production Target... If FAA Gives Regulatory Clearance - The Dow has managed to levitate into the red following a Reuters report that sent the stock of Dow heavyweight Boeing higher, according to which Boeing told suppliers it will resume production of its best-selling 737 jets at a rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, then stepping up to a record 57 jets monthly in June.There is, of course a catch: the aerospace giant will only be able to boost production if the FAA clear the plane. To wit,  Boeing told more than 100 suppliers during at least one Web meeting July 30 that the new schedule depended upon regulators approving the 737 MAX to fly again commercially in the fourth quarter.Of course, since the entire report is contingent on the firm getting a greenlight, it is nothing more than a trial balloon, and also an attempt by Boeing to make the FAA responsible for the future wellbeing of Boeing shareholders. As Reuters notes, one of the sources "expressed skepticism over the timing given the intense scrutiny from regulators that grounded the 737 MAX after deadly crashes killed nearly 350 people in Ethiopia and Indonesia in the span of five months." More to the point, there is no guarantee when regulators will clear the 737 MAX to fly again, and Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg told analysts last month that Boeing would consider further 737 output cuts or potentially suspending production if the grounding dragged on.  In other words, Boeing production could be a record in Q2 2020... or it could be zero.

Importance of Imports - It is standard analysis to see real and nominal imports as a share of GDP quoted to estimate the importance of imports in the economy. Currently that shows nominal imports are about  15% of GDP and real imports are some 18% of real GDP. But I suspect that this comparison understates the role of imports in the economy because services are some 45% of GDP but only about 16% of imports.  As my high school algebra teacher was fond of saying, you are adding crabs and apples. Rather, you should compare real goods imports to real goods GDP. On this basis imports are some 46% of GDP, a much larger share than standard analysis shows.   This impacts the economy through two routes.  One, import prices are frequently the marginal price that establishes a price ceiling for domestic goods.  But this is how tariffs work. At current prices domestic producers are making all they can profitably market at this price.  Tariffs, by raising the price ceiling facing domestic producers allow them to raise prices and still displace imports.  The second role of imports is as a buffer when the economy is stuck with higher ( excess ) stocks.  Traditionally, excess stocks or inventories leads to falling production as the means of getting inventories and sales back into line.  But in today’s economy excess inventories are just as likely to lead to lower imports rather than lower production.  See how imports share of goods GDP fell in the last two recessions as compared to the 1980 and 1990 recessions.However, imports are subtracted from GDP in the national accounts so lower imports actually add to GDP growth. This is a significant factor behind the point that recessions have become less frequent in recent decades.  Largely because of this I suspect that economists are jumping the gun in calling for a recession in the near term.   We are more likely to see just plain economic stagnation rather than a recession.  In a way this may be the bearish scenario, as recessions contain the seeds of their own recovery while it is hard to see what would end simple stagnation.

Manufacturing sector contracts for the first time in nearly a decade - U.S. manufacturer growth slowed to the lowest level in almost 10 years in August, the latest sign that the trade war may be exacerbating the economic slowdown. The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 49.9 in August, down from 50.4 in July and below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since September 2009, according to IHS Markit. Any reading below 50 signals a contraction. The survey is an initial reading for the month of August. The final figure will be released Sept. 3. “Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions,” Tim Moore, economics associate director at Markit, said in a statement Thursday. “August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter.” Manufacturing had been one of the big winners during the Trump administration, but the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war have taken a big bite from the sector. U.S. manufacturing activity slowed to a nearly three-year low in July, based on data from the Institute for Supply Management. But this fresh survey showed new orders received by manufacturers dropped the most in 10 years, while the data also showed export sales tanked to the lowest level since August 2009. Investors track PMI readings to get early indicators as to where the economy is headed. After the Markit reading, stocks fell and the yield curve inverted.

Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Declined in August" - From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Declined in August The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined in August, while expectations for future activity edged higher.  “Regional factory activity had its largest monthly drop in over three years, and over 55 percent of firms expect negative impacts from the latest round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods,” said Wilkerson. “However, even though many firms expect trade tensions to persist, expectations for future shipments and exports expanded slightly.” ..  The month-over-month composite index was -6 in August, down from -1 in July and 0 in June, and the lowest reading since March 2016. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The drop in manufacturing activity was driven by declines at both durable and nondurable plants, but especially from decreases in primary metal, electrical equipment, appliances, paper, printing, and chemical manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes decreased in August, and the shipments and supplier delivery time indexes also turned negative. All of the year-over-year factory indexes decreased in August, and the composite index fell from 11 to -1. On the other hand, the future composite index edged higher from 9 to 11, as expectations for shipments, order backlog, employment, and new orders for exports grew slightly.  Another weak report.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,750 to 214,000.  The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 214,500.  This was lower than the consensus forecast.

Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 501,000 jobs - The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 501,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2019. The final revision will be published when the January 2019 employment report is released in February 2020. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.  The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS: In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release. Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000 (-0.3 percent). Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2019 was 501,000 lower than originally estimated. In February 2020, the payroll numbers will be revised down to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2018). Construction was revised down by 9,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised down by 3,000 jobs. This preliminary estimate showed 514,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 13,000 more government jobs (as of March 2019).

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 37 states in July - From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 80. In the past month, the indexes increased in 37 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 56.  Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data.  Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all redduring the worst of the recession, and all or mostly green during most of the recent expansion. The map is mostly green on a three month basis, but there are some grey and red states.

Don’t be fooled by the Trump administration’s Labor Day pitch on overtime policy—it’s going to cost workers billions -- Soon, the Labor Department under the Trump administration will release its final rule on worker overtime. The rumor is that the administration may showcase the rule around Labor Day and claim they are taking steps to help workers. That means an important public service announcement is in order: do not be fooled! Workers would lose billions under this rule. It is likely that the final rule will not depart radically from the proposal the administration laid out earlier this year, which was to raise the overtime salary threshold (the threshold under which salaried workers are automatically entitled to overtime pay) to $35,308 a year. This is a dramatic weakening of a rule published just three years ago. In 2016, following an exhaustive rule-making process, the Labor Department finalized an overtime rule that would have increased the salary threshold to $47,476, (which was the 40th percentile of the earnings of full-time salaried workers in the lowest wage census region). However, a single district court judge in Texas enjoined the Department from enforcing the rule, and the court later erroneously held the rule to be invalid. Instead of defending the threshold from the egregiously flawed logic of the judge, the Department abandoned the rule and proposed their much weaker threshold, which is roughly the 20th percentile of the earnings of full-time salaried workers in the lowest-wage census region. It’s useful to note that if the rule had simply been adjusted for inflation since 1975, today it would be roughly $56,500. This is more than $20,000 higher than the Trump administration’s level! The Trump administration’s weaker rule will leave behind an estimated 8.2 million workers who would have gotten new or strengthened overtime protections under the 2016 rule. This includes 4.2 million women, 3.0 million people of color, 4.7 million workers without a college degree, and 2.7 million parents of children under the age of 18. Further, the annual wage gains are $1.2 billion dollars less under the presumed Trump rule than under the 2016 rule—and these annual earnings losses will grow from $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion over the first 10 years of implementation because, unlike the 2016 rule, the Trump administration rule almost surely will not include automatic indexing.

Alarm in Texas as 23 towns hit by 'coordinated' ransomware attack - Twenty-three Texas towns have been struck by a “coordinated” ransomware attack, according to the state’s Department of Information Resources. Ransomware is a type of malicious software, often delivered via email, that locks up an organization’s systems until a ransom is paid or files are recovered by other means. In many cases, ransomware significantly damages computer hardware and linked machinery and leads to days or weeks with systems offline, which is why it can be so costly to cities. According to a weekend update by the Texas DIR, the attacks started Friday morning and though the locations aren’t named, “the majority of these entities were smaller local governments.” Texas Governor Wayne Abbott ordered a “Level 2 Escalated Response” on Friday following the incident, according to a statement from Governor’s Office deputy press secretary Nan Tolson. This response level, determined by the state’s Department of Emergency Management, is part of a four-step response protocol, and is one step below the highest level of alert, level 1 or “emergency.” According to state emergency management planning guide, this means “the scope of the emergency has expanded beyond that which can be handled by local responders. Normal state and local government operations may be impaired.” In addition to the state and local agencies assisting with the response, “Governor Abbott is also deploying cybersecurity experts to affected areas in order to assess damage and help bring local government entities back online,” Tolson said. The attacks follow recent state and local ransomware attacks in New York, Louisiana, Maryland and Florida resulted in the loss of significant sums — either in ransom demands to criminals or in repairs for the damaged caused by them. It’s also still unclear whether any of the Texas jurisdictions paid ransom to the attackers, or whether the same criminals are linked to the attacks on other U.S. cities. 

Texas prisoner executed despite debunked forensic evidence pointing to his innocence --Texas carried out the execution of Larry Swearingen Wednesday evening despite serious doubts surrounding virtually every piece of forensic evidence in his case. Swearingen, 48, was convicted in the murder of 19-year-old college student Melissa Trotter, who disappeared from her community college in December 1998 and was later found dead.Swearingen’s defense attorneys had argued for more nearly two decades that scientific evidence in his case—DNA evidence under Trotter’s fingernails that was not his, pantyhose allegedly used in the murder, blood specks that were not a match for Swearingen, and inconsistencies in the timeline of the victim’s murder—exonerated him.Before the execution, Houston-based attorney James Rytting said, “They may put Larry Swearingen under, but his case is not going to die.”Swearingen had five previous dates with death, which had all been stayed. His final motion was to the US Supreme Court, which denied his appeal shortly before 6 p.m. local time. He died by lethal injection at the state prison in Huntsville, Texas, stating in the execution chamber: “Lord forgive them. They don’t know what they are doing.”The Houston Chronicle reported that he spoke with his eyes closed, strapped to the gurney, as the l ethal chemicals were injected: “I can hear it going through the vein — I can taste it,” describing a burning feeling in his right arm. “I don’t feel anything in the left,” he added. At 6:35 p.m., he began snoring, and at 6:47 p.m. local time he took his last breath.

Why so many US 'mass shooting' arrests suddenly? - In the last three weeks US authorities have arrested at least 28 people accused of threatening acts of mass violence. What's behind this surge and could they all be convicted?The threats ranged from posts on social media and video gaming sites to verbal comments to colleagues and friends. In at least two cases, suspects sent text messages to ex-partners. Hoards of weapons were also found in some cases.The FBI won't say what is behind the steep bump in apprehensions, some carried out by that agency, others by local police. It's not clear if it marks a growth in threats or simply a rise in awareness and tip-offs.But former FBI boss Andrew McCabe said on Friday there was undoubtedly a "renewed awareness" focused on the sort of threats that a few months ago might have been ignored by investigators mindful of the right to free speech as enshrined in the US Constitution.The first amendment offers broad protection of free speech, even if that speech is racist or of a violent nature. Prosecutions in the US are further complicated by the second amendment which safeguards the right to bear arms. Many of the alleged plots foiled by US law enforcement included plans to target specific minority groups. But without any federal penalties in place for acts of domestic terrorism - like those that exist for international terrorism - the charges varied - false threats, terrorist threats, illegal possession of weapons and disorderly conduct. It's unclear how these various cases will fare at trial. For charges asserting threats of violence, the threats must be highly specific, accompanied by evidence of imminent danger.

 Police violence the sixth leading cause of death for young men -- The killing of young men by police in America is a health emergency. Much attention has been given to the rise in recent years of “deaths of despair”—due to drug overdose, alcohol abuse and suicide. However, a recent study ranks police killings of young men as the sixth leading cause of death for young men in the US, regardless of race.  The study was published August 5 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) by Rutgers University Newark, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, and Washington University in St. Louis. It concludes: “Risk of being killed by police peaks between the ages of 20 years and 35 years for men and women and for all racial and ethnic groups.”  The study’s authors, Frank Edwards, Hedwig Lee and Michael Esposito, note that no agency of the government tracks or compiles an official count of peoples’ deaths at the hands of law enforcement. The findings on police “use-of-force” deaths in the study are gleaned by journalists from public records and news accounts and tabulated at the Fatal Encounters web site.  According to the Mapping Police Violence web site, 1,164 people were killed by police in 2018. According to the Washington Post’s Fatal Forcetally, there were only 22 days in all of last year in which police didn’t kill someone.

University of Michigan study indicates negative outcomes for Native American children who are spanked - Some people may believe that if you live in a community with different cultural values, spanking might not be harmful--an assumption that does not appear to be correct, according to a new University of Michigan study.In the first longitudinal examination of the effects of spanking among the Native American population, U-M researchers say that spanking is just as harmful for them as it is for black and white children. They say it can lead to greater externalizing behavior (e.g., being defiant, hitting others, throwing temper tantrums).  Among white, African American and Native American groups, spanking was associated with greater child externalizing behavior. In other words, spanking is harmful for all three racial groups despite the fact that the practice may be considered "acceptable" or "normal" in some groups. "Contrary to the idea that spanking may be 'normal,' and therefore not harmful in some groups, these results demonstrate that spanking is similarly associated with detrimental outcomes among white, black and American Indian children in the United States," said the study's lead author Kaitlin Ward, U-M doctoral student in social work and developmental psychology. 

Bulletproof Backpack Sales Spike Once Again During 'Back To School' Shopping It's that time of year again — back to school shopping — and what is besides pencils, binders and notebooks the hottest item parents will send their children to school with? For multiple years running it's bulletproof backpacks. According to NBC's Today sales are up 200 to 300 percent nationwide after the latest mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio. American companies cite heightened demand from parents especially as the two senseless tragedies within 24 hours of each other which left 31 dead gripped headlines just before the start of school.  "We've definitely seen a spike over the past week or so in sales and that could be attributed to back to school but it could be attributed to some of the national events that are happening as well," said Yasir Sheikh, founder and president of Skyline USA, which sells a variety of defense gear and recently began offering bullet-resistant backpacks. Media reports also suggest a rise in the number of 'active shooter drills' each year, which has now become commonplace in most schools — something which the older generation didn't experience — as a major factor in increased sales:  Three such companies, Bullet Blocker, TuffyPacks, and Guard Dog Security all said “they saw a significant uptick in the aftermath of mass shootings” according to CNN.

Michigan high school being built with places to hide in case of shooting - A high school being built in Michigan is designed for students and staff to have places to hide in the event of a shooting.The $48 million Fruitport High School includes controlled locks on all doors that allows district officials the ability to secure every room with the push of a button, according to ABC 13.The school is set to be finished in 2021 and Fruitport Superintendent Bob Szymoniak predicts schools going forward will follow suit."These are going to be design elements that are just naturally part of buildings going into the future," he told the news outlet.The school will be equipped with impact-resistant film on all classroom windows and is designed with curve hallways to have reduced sight lines for a potential shooter, Szymoniak said, adding that there are also barricades in the hallway for students to hide behind."To cut down on sight lines further, it also gives an opportunity for students to hide back behind and hopefully get help from within the classroom," he said.The nearly $50 million price tag includes new additions and renovations to the existing buildings.Szymoniak said the decision to specifically design a school with so many elements specifically to be prepared for a mass shootings inside the building was prompted by the frequency of school shootings. "This building will be the safest, most secure building in the state of Michigan when it opens," he said.

Black teen 'humiliated' after school colored his hair with marker, parents say - Parents of a black teenager in Texas are suing their Houston-area school district after three white middle school personnel used a marker to blot out a design on their son’s scalp. The federal civil rights lawsuit was filed Sunday against the Pearland independent school district (ISD) and the three staff members of Berry Miller junior high who used the marker to color the student’s scalp. The three claimed that his “common African American ‘fade’ haircut violated the Pearland ISD dress code policy”, the lawsuit reads.The school’s assistant principal threatened to suspend the boy if he did not have his scalp design colored. The design stood out even more when that was done, so school personnel proceeded to color his entire scalp with black marker.“They laughed as they took many minutes to color 13-year-old JT’s scalp which took many days of scrubbing to come off. JT was immensely humiliated and shamed,” the lawsuit states. “There are hardly any African Americans in America with jet black skin,” the court document reads.  “It is commonly understood among scholars and the general public that depicting African Americans with jet black skin is a negative racial stereotype. During the Jim Crow era [of racial segregation] slaves were often depicted as happy in their slave existence and with jet black skin as a means to disguise their humanity and imply that they are unlike ‘white’ people.”As news of the incident spread and outrage grew, the Pearland ISD issued a statement saying that it was “extremely disappointed to learn of a situation”, but it insisted that the boy’s haircut violated district dress code. Nevertheless, a “campus administrator mishandled disciplinary action”, and the practice is “not condoned by the district”, it said.

 State says Kentucky school owes $73K refund to bankrupt coal company - State and local officials are grappling with the touchy issue of a tax refund to a bankrupt coal company that could cost the Harlan County school system enough money to pay two teachers.The school district has not disputed that Revelation Energy overpaid a utility tax to the district by $73,000.However, it has balked at refunding the money because Revelation owes delinquent property taxes that support local services, including the school system.The amount owed to the school system from those delinquent taxes is greater than the amount Revelation overpaid on the utility tax  “Don’t give the money to them while they still owe us money,” Roark said.  The issue of the refund also raises hackles because Revelation’s sister company, Blackjewel, laid off several hundred miners in Harlan and other Eastern Kentucky counties after filing for bankruptcy on July 1.

It’s the beginning of the school year and teachers are once again opening up their wallets to buy school supplies - It’s the beginning of the school year, a time of eager anticipation and hopeful expectations. Amid the excitement, parents are engaged in practical tasks, including opening their wallets to stock their children’s backpacks with school supplies. Teachers, too, are gearing up to go back to their classrooms by opening their wallets to buy classroom supplies. An overwhelming majority of them—more than nine out of 10—will not be reimbursed for what they spend on supplies over the school year, according to survey data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).The nation’s K–12 public school teachers shell out, on average, $459 on school supplies for which they are not reimbursed (adjusted for inflation to 2018 dollars), according to the NCES 2011–2012 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). This figure does not include the dollars teachers spend but are reimbursed for by their school districts. The $459-per-teacher average is for all teachers, including the small (4.9%) share who do not spend any of their own money on school supplies.Unlike the data from the more recent 2015–2016 survey (now called National Teacher and Principal Survey or NTPS), the 2011–2012 SASS microdata provide state-by-state information, allowing us to see how much teachers spend on supplies by state. The map below shows the inflation-adjusted state-by-state spending. We know that the figures in the map are not an atypical high driven by the Great Recession because the 2011–2012 spending levels are lower than spending levels in the 2015–2016 NTPS data. The figure after the map shows that teachers’ unreimbursed school supply spending has actually increased overall since the recovery. So how much do teachers in each state and the District of Columbia spend—unreimbursed—on supplies? The map shows a wide variation, with teachers on average spending $327 in North Dakota on the low end of the spectrum and $664 in California on the high end.

Ontario teachers face threat of state repression, wage and job cuts in upcoming contract fight - As the August 31st contract expiry date for teachers at Ontario’s publicly funded elementary and high schools approaches, the province’s Progressive Conservative government continues to threaten to use state repression to enforce its sweeping concession demands. Led by the Trump wannabe Premier Doug Ford, Ontario’s government is seeking to impose dramatic class-size increases that would eliminate 10,000 teacher jobs, a cut in real wages, regressive changes to the sick-day regime, and other benefit rollbacks. The Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation (OSSTF) and the Ontario Public School Board’s Association reached an impasse in negotiations earlier this summer. The OSSTF leadership has accepted without protest the referral of the issues in dispute to the Ontario Labour Relations Board, a pro-employer body that invariably reaches conclusions hostile to workers’ interests. In 2015, the OLRB outlawed strikes by high school teachers in three school districts at the behest of then the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne, allowing it to enforce a pay freeze for teachers under its “net zero” public spending framework. 78,000 grade schoolteachers represented by the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO) are still in the preliminary stages of contract talks. Negotiations with the 45,000-member Ontario English Catholic Teachers Association (OECTA) are ongoing. All three contracts expire at the end of August. Last week, the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) Education Council representing 55,000 ancillary workers (librarians, early child educators, administrators, custodians, etc.) voted to support “job action” should a deal not be reached with the Ontario government later this autumn. The CUPE contracts also expire at the end of this month. Strike votes are slated amongst the entire membership in the third week of September. The role of the teacher unions has been to hand the initiative to the Ford government, allowing the Tories to unveil a sweeping assault on teachers’ wages and working conditions without their organizing any meaningful resistance. Both the OSSTF and CUPE ceded to the government’s phony offer of early-round bargaining, hoping that the additional time would allow them to cook up a rotten “compromise” deal with government negotiators. Shortly thereafter, the Ford government unveiled legislation, Bill 124, that will cap “increases” in total wage and benefit compensation for a million Ontario other public sector workers, including teachers, at 1 percent per year for the next four coming four years. When inflation is taken into account, this will amount to a significant real-terms pay cut.

White Students To The Back Of The Bus, Please! –- The University of South Dakota is taking a bit of heat after posing questions to its law students about  whether non-minority voices were “taking up space” in class discussions. In a slide presentation, students were asked a series of questions via a flowchart, and their answers determined whether they were “taking up space” or “contributing to a space” in the classroom. Campus Reform obtained the slides through a Freedom of Information Act request, and they show several controversial questions that have some academics, students, and others concerned. The flowchart guides the students with queries to determine if they are deferring appropriately to minoritized voices. Using the chart, I answered the questions. Perhaps I didn’t understand them fully, but my feedback led to me getting the answer: “You’re probably taking up space, maybe don’t?” The first question on the chart sets the tone:“Will you be representing a relative minoritized identity?”  If your response is yes, the next one delves deeper to make sure you are being honest: “Do you have enough perspective to represent that identity?”If you answer yes to both questions, congratulations, you are not taking up space. The conclusion seems to be: If you are a minority, you have earned your place, go to the head of the class. If you are a member of the majority, you are simply stifling and crowding out more deserving minority voices, keep quiet.Not everyone is onboard with this ty pe of skewed agenda-setting. Kevin Shieffer, president of the South Dakota Board of Regents, said he was opening an investigation into the diversity offices in state universities. The goal is to ascertain if such school policies push a left-leaning political agenda.

Study- Nearly Four-Fifths Of Gender Minority Students Have Mental Health Issues -- A significant majority of transgender and gender-variant students experience mental health issues, a new report shows. That statistic is greatly higher than for the general population. The study, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, “examined responses of more than 65,200 students” from several dozen different American institutions, Inside Higher Ed reports. Around 1,200 of those students “said they had an alternate gender identity, meaning they do not identify with the gender that matches their birth sex.” The number of those students who reported mental health issues was staggering: “Almost 80 percent of these gender-minority students reported having at least one mental health issue compared to 45 percent of their cisgender peers — students whose gender aligns with their assigned birth sex.” The study’s lead author, health law professor Sarah Ketchen Lipson, said the findings were not unanticipated: “The direction of the findings is not surprising,” said Lipson, “but the fact that there are these disparities, and magnitude of that disparity, as a researcher, it makes you take a step back and run the numbers over and over.”  More than half of gender-minority students — 58 percent — screened positive for depression, according to the study. And 53 percent of them reported having intentionally injured themselves in a way that was not suicidal. Less than 30 percent of cisgender students screened positive for depression, and 20 percent reported a nonsuicidal self-injury. Three percent of gender-minority students had attempted suicide compared to less than 1 percent of cisgender students, the study found. More than one-third of gender-minority students said they had seriously considered suicide.One campus official claimed that every school should have “trans-experienced therapists, if not at least one trans-identified therapist, and should have at least one support group specifically for trans students.”  Read the report here…

How Life Became an Endless, Terrible Competition - In 1987, I graduated from a public high school in Austin, Texas, and headed northeast to attend Yale. I then spent nearly 15 years studying at various universities—the London School of Economics, the University of Oxford, Harvard, and finally Yale Law School—picking up a string of degrees along the way. Today, I teach at Yale Law, where my students unnervingly resemble my younger self: They are, overwhelmingly, products of professional parents and high-class universities. I pass on to them the advantages that my own teachers bestowed on me. They, and I, owe our prosperity and our caste to meritocracy. Two decades ago, when I started writing about economic inequality, meritocracy seemed more likely a cure than a cause. Meritocracy’s early advocates championed social mobility. In the 1960s, for instance, Yale President Kingman Brewster brought meritocratic admissions to the universitywith the express aim of breaking a hereditary elite. Alumni had long believed that their sons had a birthright to follow them to Yale; now prospective students would gain admission based on achievement rather than breeding. Meritocracy—for a time—replaced complacent insiders with talented and hardworking outsiders. Today’s meritocrats still claim to get ahead through talent and effort, using means open to anyone. In practice, however, meritocracy now excludes everyone outside of a narrow elite. Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, and Yale collectively enroll more students from households in the top 1 percent of the income distribution than from households in the bottom 60 percent. Legacy preferences, nepotism, and outright fraud continue to give rich applicants corrupt advantages. But the dominant causes of this skew toward wealth can be traced to meritocracy. On average, children whose parents make more than $200,000 a year score about 250 points higher on the SAT than children whose parents make $40,000 to $60,000. Only about one in 200 children from the poorest third of households achieves SAT scores at Yale’s median. Meanwhile, the top banks and law firms, along with other high-paying employers, recruit almost exclusively from a few elite colleges.

 Canceling Student Debt Would Hurt US Economy- Survey - Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have been leading the pack of some two dozen Democratic primary contenders on a range of progressive issues. But here's one survey they probably don't want to see. According to a survey from the National Association of Business Economists, canceling Americans’ student debt, one of the most pressing domestic issues for 2020, would actually have an adverse impact on the US economy - instead of unleashing the millennial generation's consumption power, allowing them to settle down, buy homes and start procreating again (remember, the US birth-rate fell to its lowest level in more than a decade this year).  On the contrary, 64% of respondents (most of whom are business economists) believe forgiving most or all of student debt in the country - as both Sanders' and Warren's plans would do - would be a net negative for the economy. Americans owe about $1.6 trillion in student loans. That pile of debt is so huge, thousands of Americans will die before paying off their student loans. Progressives have argued that millions of students were pushed by their parents and, well, society in general, into taking out high interest loans to finance degrees at fancy private colleges that gave them little additional earning power while saddling them with six-figure loan balances.  The progressive argument for cancelling debt, once again, is that it would help Americans reduce wealth inequality. The counter-argument is that, if students know they won't need to pay back the debt for their education, they might make more expensive, and more reckless decisions.  The survey included responses from 226 National Association for Business Economics members and took place July 14 to Aug. 1. In 2017,

U.S. health panel recommends doctors screen all adults for illicit drug use - WaPo - An influential group of health experts recommended Tuesday that doctors screen all adults for use of illegal drugs, another step toward curbing the epidemic that claims tens of thousands of lives each year. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force said that health providers should attempt to determine whether their patients 18 or older are using illicit drugs, including nonmedical use of prescription drugs. But the panel said it did not have enough information to decide whether all adolescents should be screened. The recommendation is the first time the panel has concluded there is enough evidence to support screening all adults. In 2008, it declined to do so. The guidance is important because the Affordable Care Act requires that services recommended by the task force be covered free or with very small co-payments. The proposed recommendations are open for public comment until Sept. 9, after which the task force will consider them for final approval. The panel concluded screening is effective when “services for accurate diagnosis of unhealthy drug use or drug use disorders, effective treatment, and appropriate care can be offered or referred.” It cited the findings of a 2017 national survey that 11.5 percent of Americans 18 or older were using illegal drugs at the time and data that showed that 8.5 percent of pregnant women aged 18 to 44 had used drugs in the past month.  Among drug users aged 12 and over, 85.3 percent said they used cannabis and 19.5 percent used “psychotherapeutic drugs,” including opioids and other pain relievers.70,237 people died of drug overdoses in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The panel suggested several questionnaires, administered by health care providers or taken by patients on their own, that it said were effective in picking up illicit drug use. It warned primary care providers that “screening tools are not meant to diagnose drug dependence, abuse, addiction, or use disorders. Patients with positive screening results may therefore need to be offered or referred for diagnostic assessment.”

Psychedelic Drugs Are Finally Being Used to Treat Depression in US Hospitals - — As the country increasingly sheds its prohibitionist stereotypes and misconceptions about psychedelic drugs, scientists and psychiatrists are increasingly embracing their potent qualities as “game-changers” in the fight to treat mental health disorders.The new trend unfolding across the U.S. has converted drugs like ketamine—once known primarily as a recreational drug used at raves and underground concerts—into a powerful tool for mental health professionals in the Midwest, according to the Times of Northwest Indiana.Dr. Joseph Fanelli, a psychiatrist who is the medical director for behavioral health services at St. Catherine Hospital in East Chicago, told the Times: Continuing, Fanelli noted that in the case of ketamine, researchers have found a drug that kicks in almost immediately versus the weeks that antidepressants take to make an impact. Ketamine treatment is “one of the most rapid, dramatic treatments we’ve had and been able to use in a long time,” he noted. Ketamine is a strong sedative and dissociative that has been used in the veterinary and medical fields since the 1960s, but it has also been known as a club drug for nearly just as long. Numerous studies in the recent past have shown how ketamine can be a powerful treatment option for major depression. And in March, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the approval of a ketamine-based nasal spray for treating depression that was patented by Johnson & Johnson, as previously reported by the Mind Unleashed. The drug, called esketamine, has a slight chemical variation from the original substance and must be administered in a doctor’s office under tight monitoring due to the potential for hallucinations. However, Fanelli noted that any such dose is far lower than the amount typically used on the streets.

Mexico Judge Approves Recreational Cocaine Use for Two People - — In a move that is being hailed as a step toward ending prohibitionist policies and Mexico’s bloody “war on drugs,” a judge in Mexico City has ruled that two people are allowed to legally use cocaine on the basis that adults should enjoy the fundamental right to recreationally ingest the substance for personal use.The groundbreaking ruling by a district court in the capital city grants the pair the legal right to “possess, transport and use cocaine” but not sell it, following an injunction by anti-crime crusading group Mexico United Against Crime (MUCD), according to La Jornada. Advocates are hopeful that the decision could lead cocaine down the same path toward decriminalization that was previously blazed by opponents of marijuana prohibition.

Vaping Damages Blood Vessels After Just One Use, New Study Says -- Vaping one time — even without nicotine — can damage blood vessels, reduce blood flow and create dangerous toxins, according to a new study published in the journal Radiology. The study found that the heat created when e-cigarettes turn liquid into vapor stirs the compounds into toxic particles, which damage blood vessels. To perform the study, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine took an MRI scan of 31 healthy non-smokers before and after vaping nicotine-free e-cigarettes.The study participants took 3-second drags 16 times on an e-cigarette that had tobacco flavoring and sweeteners, but no nicotine, as NBC News reported. The researchers found that after vaping, blood flow decreased in the femoral artery — the main artery that delivers blood to the thigh and the leg. In fact, the participants had had worse circulation, stiffer arteries and less oxygen in their blood."The results of our study defeat the notion that e-cigarette vaping is harmless," said Felix Wehrli, the study's principal investigator, as Wired reported. "Beyond the harmful effects of nicotine, we've shown that vaping has a sudden, immediate effect on the body's vascular function, and could potentially lead to long-term harmful consequences," he said in astatement released by the University of Pennsylvania.

New Study Links Fluoride To Lower IQs - A study published on Monday in an influential medical journal has found a link between fluoride consumption during pregnancy and lower childhood IQs."When we started in this field, we were told that fluoride is safe and effective in pregnancy," said study co-author Christine Till of York University in Toronto. "But when we looked for the evidence to suggest that it’s safe, we didn’t find any studies done on pregnant women."  The study - conducted with 512 pregnant women recruited from six Canadian cities - used several methods to measure exposure to fluoride; analyzing the amount of fluoride in their urine; looking at how much tap water and tea they drank; and comparing the fluoride concentration in the community drinking water, according to the Daily Beast.In a follow-up, when the children were 3 or 4, the research team performed IQ tests to detect a correlation. In mothers whose urine contained a 1 mg per liter increase in fluoride concentration, their children's IQ was 4.5 points lower among boys. Boys of mothers with the most fluoride in their urine had an IQ around 3 points lower than mothers with the least amount.  "We saw an association between prenatal fluoride exposure and lower IQ scores in children," Rivky Green, co-author of the study published in JAMA Pediatrics. Although critics of the study pointed to the different results by gender as a red flag, when the researchers measured fluoride exposure by examining the women’s fluid intake, they found lower IQs in boys and girls. A 1 mg increase per day was associated with a 3.7-point  IQ deficit among both. -Daily Beast "What we recommend is lowering fluoride ingestion during pregnancy," said Green.  Fluoride occurs naturally in low concentrations around the world. While the CDC says artificially fluoridated water is safe, it is considered by some to be a cumulative poison. In 1997, British scientist Jennifer Luke discovered that just 50% of the daily ingested fluoride is excreted through the kidneys - with the rest accumulating in the bones, the pineal gland and other tissues. By old age, the pineal gland contains about the same amount of fluoride as teeth according to Luke's findings.

 Drinking Fluoride-Treated Water During Pregnancy Could Lower Your Child's IQ, Study Finds --Drinking water treated with fluoride during pregnancy may lead to lower IQs in children, a controversial new study has found. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, many adults and children have seen the dental health benefits of drinking water treated with fluoride over the past 70 years, including stronger teeth and 25 percent fewer cavities. Currently, more than 66 percent of Americans receive fluoride-treated water.But according to researchers at York University in Toronto, the higher the concentration of fluoride present in a mother-to-be's urine, the lower her male child's IQ score.For the study, which was published this week in JAMA Pediatrics, the researchers tracked 512 mothers, measuring their fluoride exposure by comparing how much was in their community's drinking water, how much tap water and tea the mothers drank, and the amount of fluoride in their urine throughout their pregnancies. Their children received an IQ test between ages three and four.The researchers found that for every increase of 1 milligram per liter concentration of fluoride in a mother's urine, the child's IQ score dropped 3.7 points. Male children saw a 4.5-point lower IQ score for each 1 milligram per liter, while there was no significant link when it came to female children, though the researchers could not point to why."At a population level, that's a big shift. That translates to millions of IQ levels lost," study author Christine Till, an associate professor in the Department of Psychology at York University in Toronto, told CNN.The results appear to back up the findings of the few previous studies showing an association between increased fluoride exposure and reduced IQ in children, though this is the first study that looked at populations receiving 0.7 milligrams of fluoride per liter of drinking water, CNN reported, which is what the U.S. Public Health Service has deemed the optimal ratio. However, some of the previous studies have been questioned by health experts, The Daily Beast reported, and this one was met with equal skepticism.

More Bad Nutrition Studies: Red Meat and Cancer – Dr Aaron Carroll - The old chestnut that eating red meat leads to cancer is back. A study last week claimed that eating red meat increased cancer risks by up to 28 percent!  That sounds scary, but this study has a lot of problems.  More Bad Nutrition Studies: Red Meat and Cancer – YouTube

Measles outbreak surpasses 1,200 cases in 30 states as school year begins - The measles outbreak in the U.S., which is fast approaching the 1-year mark and has broken a 27-year record, has reached 1,203 cases in 30 states since the start of 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday. The school year is starting and public health officials are concerned that the highly contagious virus will be spread via unvaccinated children and college students, possibly leading to severe complications or death.  The CDC said there were 21 new cases confirmed last week.

• The U.S. is in danger of losing its "measles-free" designation from the World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization, which it's had since 2000.
• The CDC says 124 people with measles were hospitalized between Jan. 1 and Aug. 15, with 64 reporting complications that include pneumonia and encephalitis.
• All measles cases this year have been caused by measles wild-type D8 or B3, per the CDC.

Meanwhile, measles continues spreading overseas as well. The WHO reported last week that the first 6 months of 2019 showed measles cases are the highest they've been in any year since 2006.

• The U.K. lost its measles-free status on Monday. A junior health minister told BBC Radio 4 "Today" that they have enough measles vaccine stockpiled in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which could disrupt supplies of some drugs on Oct. 31.
• Israel last week reported its third measles-related death since November, following an outbreak that infected 4,292 people between July 2018 and July 2019.
• The Democratic Republic of the Congo has been fighting a measles outbreak in addition to a range of other diseases like Ebola and malaria. Measles has killed more than 2,700 people since the start of the year.

  Drug-Resistant Salmonella Linked to Overuse of Antibiotics in Cattle Farming  -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned Thursday of a drug-resistant strain ofsalmonella newport linked to the overuse of antibiotics in cattle farming.  The strain sickened 255 people in 32 states between June 2018 and March 2019, leading to 60 hospitalizations and two deaths, the agency wrote in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. And the strain is still making people sick, lead report author and CDC epidemiologist Dr. Ian Plumb told CNN.  "We are continuing to see cases occurring among patients," Plumb told CNN in an email. "The antibiotic resistance pattern of this strain is alarming because the primary oral antibiotics used to treat patients with this type of salmonella infection may not work." The strain has shown decreased susceptibility to azithromycin and does not respond at all to ciprofloxacin, the report said. Both are commonly used to treat the disease, and, before 2017, fewer than 0.5 percent of salmonella strains found in U.S. patients were resistant to azithromycin.  The outbreak has been linked to the consumption of U.S. beef and Mexican soft cheese, leading investigators to believe the strain is present in cows in both countries, CNN reported. "The resistant strains developed in animals, and those strains can then be transmitted to humans," Plumb told HealthDay Reporter.  "Salmonella is a very common bacteria in livestock, and the problem is that we're overusing antibiotics to try to control this problem," Siegel said. He said that farmers also gave antibiotics to cattle to increase their size.  "It's really a change in farming practices that are needed—to stop giving these animals antibiotics," he said.

Zombie Deer Disease Rears Its Ugly Head: Canada Issues Stark Warning About "Always Fatal" Infection -- Earlier this year, an infectious disease expert warned that a deadly disease found in deer could infect humans in the near future.  Often referred to as “zombie deer” disease because of the symptoms, Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) has been reported in at least 26 states in the continental United States and in four provinces in Canada. In addition, CWD has been reported in reindeer and/or moose in Norway, Finland, and Sweden, and a small number of imported cases have been reported in South Korea. The disease has also been found in farmed deer and elk. To view a map that shows the distribution of CWD in North America, click here: Expanding Distribution of Chronic Wasting Disease  CWD was recently detected in a herd of deer in Canada.  On July 26, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) confirmed a case of CWD in a herd of white-tailed deer, reports Global News: An Alberta deer farm recorded Canada’s third case of a so-called “zombie deer disease” last month.While the chronic wasting disease (CWD) outbreak was contained — and no infected meat entered the Canadian food supply — experts say more needs to be done to stop the infectious disease from spreading.The herd was “humanely destroyed on site and did not enter the food chain,” the agency told Global News in a statement. “[The farm] remains under quarantine and disease response activities have been initiated.”This is the third case of CWD in Canada for 2019. The two other infections were also identified in Alberta — on Feb. 28 in elk and on June 21 in white-tailed deer. (source)

Half A Billion Bees Drop Dead In Brazil Amid Jump In Pesticide Use -- Bee apocalypse has unfolded in four of Brazil's southern states in 1Q19. More than half a billion bees died earlier this year, in a short period, experts are suggesting that pesticides are likely to be blamed, reported Bloomberg.  Around half a billion bees dropped dead in 4 of Brazil’s southern states in the first few months of this year. Samples showed most of the dead had been poisoned with Fipronil, a insecticide proscribed in the EU, classified as a possible human carcinogen by the U.S. EPA (thread)  — Bruce Douglas (@bruceecurb) August 19, 2019    Since President Jair Bolsonaro took control in January, the Ministry of Agriculture has approved sales of a record 290 pesticides, up 27% YoY for the same period. There's also a bill sitting in Congress that would dramatically decrease pesticide standards.  Brazilian companies such as Cropchem and Ouro Fino, as well as major international firms including Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF and Sumitomo,  have recently won new pesticide registrations.  Data from the United Nations discovered Brazil's pesticide use jumped 770% from 1990 to 2016.  Brazil's health watchdog Anvisa recently published a food-safety report which found 20% of samples contained pesticide residues above government accepted levels. Bloomberg noted that Anvisa's test didn't even include glyphosate, one of Brazil's best-selling pesticide, which is outlawed in at least a dozen countries around the world.

Scientists decry 'ignorance’ of rolling back species protections in the midst of a mass extinction – Last week, the Trump administration finalized changes intended to weaken key provisions of the Endangered Species Act. As Darryl Fears writes for The Washington Post, the changes would “allow the administration to reduce the amount of habitat set aside for wildlife and remove tools that officials use to predict future harm to species as a result of climate change. It would also reveal for the first time in the law’s 45-year history the financial costs of protecting them." The changes have drawn widespread condemnation from the scientific community, including complaints the administration is weakening protections for vulnerable species just as scientific consensus is converging on the idea that Earth is now in the midst of its sixth mass extinction event, a man-made disaster with radically destabilizing consequences. In North America alone, at least 277 plant and animal species have gone extinct since Europeans first arrived on the continent, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, regarded by scientists as the gold standard for data on threatened and endangered species.  The list of the fallen includes some relatively familiar creatures, such as the passenger pigeon and the Steller’s sea cow. But it’s composed primarily of mollusks, insects and other more obscure organisms. Most importantly, it’s egregiously incomplete: Biologists estimate that only about 10 percent of the world’s plant and animal species has been identified and categorized, meaning that many are being killed off before humans are even aware of their existence.   The true number of species that we’ve wiped out is “completely unknown.”  We do know, however, that the current rate of species extinction is orders of magnitude above what the geological record indicates is normal. “The rate of species extinction is already at least tens to hundreds of times higher than it has averaged over the past 10 million years, and it is set to rise sharply still further unless drivers are reduced,” according to a U.N. report released in May. In the past 500 years, humans have wiped out nearly 2½ percent of amphibian species, 2 percent of mammals and birds, and about 1 percent of reptiles and fish. At a geological scale that’s a stunning rate of extinction in a vanishingly brief period of time. Before mass extinction “events” in the Earth’s history unspooled over hundreds of thousands of years. Geologically speaking, the human era resembles one of these catastrophic events more than anything else.

Environmental Groups Sue Trump Administration Over New Endangered Species Act Rules - A coalition of some of the largest environmental groups in the country joined forces to file a lawsuit in federal court challenging the Trump administration's maneuver to weaken the Endangered Species Act.The Department of the Interior's changes to the Endangered Species Act — which has successfully protected 99 percent of the animals on the list and saved the iconic bald eagle, grizzly bear and gray wolf from the brink of extinction — make it easier to remove species from the list, ends protection for threatened species that are not yet endangered, and allows regulators to weigh the economic cost of protecting a species, as Ecowatch reported.The groups that filed the complaint in the Northern District of California yesterday allege that the changes undermine the purpose of the law, according to CNN. The environmental groups claim that the manipulations of the law will drastically weaken protections for plants and animals, while benefiting industry groups and landowners, according to The Hill."Trump's rules are a dream-come-true for polluting industries and a nightmare for endangered species," said Noah Greenwald, endangered species director at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a press release. "Scientists around the world are sounding the alarm about extinction, but the Trump administration is removing safeguards for the nation's endangered species. We'll do everything in our power to stop these rules from going forward."The lawsuit was filed by Earthjustice on behalf of Center for Biological Diversity, Defenders of Wildlife, Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), National Parks Conservation Association, WildEarth Guardians and the Humane Society of the United States. The administration's tweaks to the law are particularly striking for their timing, which come just after a United Nations report that warned of a worldwide biodiversity crisis and predicted the extinction of one million species by the end of the century due to the climate crisis.

Washington State Kills Last of Wolf Pack Hours Before Court-Ordered Reprieve - The last four members of an embattled wolf pack were killed in Washington State Friday, hours before the court order that could have saved them.  The wolves, members the Old Profanity Territory pack in the Colville National Forest of Northeastern Washington, were killed by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) after the pack killed or injured 14 cattle in a ten month period, KUOW reported.  The killings occurred early Friday morning, before a court hearing began at 9:30 a.m. in King County Superior Court. The judge ordered the state to temporarily halt its wolf killings until the case could go to trial, but the order came too late.  "It's unbelievably tragic that this wolf family has already been annihilated by the state," Sophia Ressler ofwildlife advocacy group the Center for Biological Diversity told the Associated Press. "It seems like Washington's wildlife agency is bent on wiping out the state's wolves."  A judge just ruled to stop the killing of Old Profanity wolves, but sadly the order came too late — 8 of the 9 members of this wolf family had already been killed, including four pups. And the Togo pack remains unprotected.

Race to save the rainforest: Why replacing cocaine barons with cattle ranchers is destroying the Amazon - Calamar is the town that cocaine built. Until recently ruled by armed guerrillas in the heart of bandit country, this frontier outpost of 5,000 or so inhabitants is situated quite literally at the end of the road in Colombia’s remote Guaviare province, where the highway turns to dust and the Amazon rainforest looms all around.   Calamar and its surrounds became a stronghold for cocaine production, overseen by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, otherwise known as FARC, Latin America’s oldest and largest guerrilla movement. During the country’s decades-long civil war, the dense rainforest of Guaviare province provided ideal cover for FARC’s kidnapping and cocaine operations (the French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt was among those held in captivity here before being released in 2008).  The guerrillas encouraged local farmers to create coca plantations, and paid them handsomely for the crop, which is the main constituent of cocaine. Soaring global appetite for the drug over the ensuing decades meant boom time for Calamar.  In late 2016 the Colombian government signed a peace deal with FARC, bringing to an end more than half a century of armed conflict. A key part of the negotiations rested upon stemming the cocaine trade in a country that produces more of the drug than any other nation. As the peace process holds, the FARC rebels have disbanded, although dissident splinter groups in Guaviare remain an ongoing threat. The collapse of the cocaine industry has sparked a new Guaviare gold rush. With the guerrillas relinquishing control, cattle ranchers are moving in to buy out farmers and exploit a new frontier. Though the Amazon rainforest proved a useful screen for FARC, with the jungle shielding rebel bases and drug factories from spotter planes, now there is no such imperative.  The rainforest is disappearing at unprecedented rates. So much land is being cleared so rapidly that it is beginning to encroach on the Chiribiquete National Park, Colombia’s largest and most pristine swathe of the Amazon, championed by the Prince of Wales as a vital lung of the Earth and in 2018 declared a World Heritage Site. Should the recent rates of deforestation continue, experts warn, the implications will prove devastating for us all.

Hidden Trump Report Reveals Water Plan Will Harm Endangered Whales and Salmon - It's become a familiar story with the Trump administration: Scientists write a report that shows the administration's policies will cause environmental damage, then the administration buries the report and fires the scientists. The latest chapter in that book happened this summer in California when federal officials suppressed ascientific report that warned that the administration's plans to deliver more water to farms in California's Central Valley will push critically endangered California salmon even closer to extinction. It will also starve a threatened population of steelhead trout and West Coast killer whales that feed on the endangered Chinook, according to the Los Angeles Times.Rather than cause the administration to rethink its policy, it treated science as something inconvenient. Two days after the scientists handed in the 1,123 page report, classified as a biological opinion, a fisheries official took it down. The Trump administration then replaced the scientists with the National Marine Fisheries Service who had been drafting the biological opinion and brought in other staff to revise the biological opinion, as the Sacramento Bee reported.In the initial report, released on July 1 and then suppressed, the National Marine Fisheries Service pulls no punches in forcefully concluding that the increased water deliveries will jeopardize the existence of endangered winter-run Chinook salmon. The agency wrote that the changes "will produce multiple stressors" on winter-run salmon "that are expected to reduce survival and the overall fitness of individuals," the agency wrote, as the Los Angeles Times reported. It went on to also highlight the hazards to threatened spring-run Chinook and threatened Central Valley steelhead, as well as endangered Southern Resident killer whales whose numbers are perilously low, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The Trump administration tried to bury a climate study on … rice? - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is supposed to use the “latest available science” to help the nation’s farmers avoid risk, according to its own mission. So it was more than a little surprising when, last year, the agency decided not to promote an alarming study (that two of its employees had contributed to) that showed climate change could lessen the nutritional value of rice — a crop the agency says the U.S. is a “major exporter” of. Here’s the gist of the research: Rice may not be super flavorful by itself, but for millions of people, particularly in Southeast Asia, it’s an important source of both protein and calories. Rice also contains a suite of B vitamins, iron, and zinc. But those nutrients appear to decrease if rice is grown in high ambient concentrations of CO2 — the kind that climate models are predicting for the end of the century. Scientists say that could exacerbate the incidence of illnesses like malaria and diarrheal disease in places that rely on the staple crop.  At first, the Agricultural Research Service, the USDA’s in-house research arm, seemed open to promoting the study.  But a week later Hodson was notified the USDA had killed its promotional efforts around the study. But despite the USDA’s non-promotion, the paper did not quietly fade into academic obscurity. After checking with the interim head of the School of Public Health — who said in an email that the research seemed “straightforward” — Hodson decided to press on with promoting the paper. The university issued a press release that included a quote from Ziska, and they helped connect reporters with him as well as the school’s own scientists. The research garnered coverage in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Seattle Times, among other outlets. Ziska and his team’s findings that protein, iron, and zinc levels decreased in rice grown in higher carbon dioxide concentrations verified the work of Samuel Myers, a research scientist at Harvard’s Center for the Environment who works closely on the human health impacts of climate change. To Myers, who examined this incident against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s war on climate science, it seemed to be part of a pattern.“The USDA is part of a federal administration that can only be described in legal terms as ‘exhibiting depraved indifference to climate change,’” he said. Suppressing a study that highlighted the negative effects of global warming on a major food staple is, Myers added, “completely consistent with the way the federal administration has been acting for the past two and a half years.”

 The Global Food Crisis Is Here – Ask people to name the biggest dangers posed by climate breakdown, and most will start listing off extreme weather events.   But while extreme weather poses a real threat to human societies (consider what Hurricane Maria did to Puerto Rico), some of the most worrying aspects of climate change are much less obvious and almost even invisible. A new 1,400-page report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a case in point. It explores the impacts of climate breakdown on the most fundamental, even intimate feature of human civilization—our food system.  When we think about melting Himalayan glaciers, we mourn the loss of a natural wonder and worry about sea level rise. We don’t think much about what glaciers have to do with food. But that’s where the real crunch is coming. Half of Asia’s population depends on water that flows from Himalayan glaciers—not only for drinking and other household needs but, more importantly, for agriculture. For thousands of years, the runoff from those glaciers has been replenished each year by ice buildup in the mountains. But right now they’re melting at a much faster rate than they are being replaced. On our present trajectory, if our governments fail to accomplish radical emissions reductions, most of those glaciers will be gone within a single human lifetime. This will rip the heart out of the region’s food system, leaving 800 million people in crisis.And that’s just Asia. In Iraq, Syria, and much of the rest of the Middle East, droughts and desertification will render whole regions inhospitable to agriculture. Southern Europe will wither into an extension of the Sahara. Major food-growing regions in China and the United States will also take a hit. According towarnings from NASA, intensive droughts could turn the American plains and the Southwest into a giant dust bowl. Under normal circumstances, regional food shortages can be covered by surpluses from elsewhere on the planet. But models suggest there’s a real danger that climate breakdown could trigger shortages on multiple continents at once. According to the IPCC report, warming more than 2 degrees Celsius is likely to cause “sustained food supply disruptions globally.” As one of the lead authors of the report put it: “The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing.” Climate change is projected to drive up hunger rates, malnutrition, and child stunting. But we’d be kidding ourselves if we think this is just a matter of not having enough food to eat. It also has serious implications for global political stability. Regions affected by food shortages will see mass displacement as people migrate to more arable parts of the planet or in search of stable food supplies. In fact, it’shappening already. Many of the people fleeing places like Guatemala and Somalia right now are doing so because their farms are no longer viable.

People breathing dirty air more likely to have mental health problems -- People exposed to high levels of air pollution have much greater odds of suffering from a psychiatric illness such as depression, schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, according to a new study. While no mental illness can be pinned on environmental exposures alone, the study, published today in PLOS Biology, adds to growing evidence that air pollution is toxic for our brains and may interact with other genetic and biological factors to impact when some people get mental disorders and how severe the disorders become. "Our study shows that living in polluted areas, especially early on in life, is predictive of mental disorders in both the United States and Denmark,"   To examine mental health disorders, Khan and colleagues looked at a U.S. health insurance database of about 150 million people that covered 11 years of claims and a second dataset of all 1.4 million people born in Denmark between 1979 through 2002. The researchers used 87 air quality measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to estimate pollution exposure by county for the U.S. people; and used Denmark's pollution registry to estimate air pollution exposure for Danish people.  The air pollutants include small particulate matter, diesel emissions, nitrogen dioxide, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and other contaminants that come from car exhaust, industry and wildfires.  In the U.S., they found the worst air quality was linked to a 27 percent increase in the rate of bipolar disorder and a 6 percent increase in diagnoses of major depression.  In Denmark the results were more alarming: When they compared people in the group with the highest levels of estimated exposure to those with the lowest levels they found:

• The rate of schizophrenia was 148 percent higher
• The rate of bipolar disorder was 29 percent higher
• The rate of personality disorder increased 162 percent
• The rate of major depression increased about 50 percent

The researchers controlled for other variables including age, sex, population density and income, lead author and University of Chicago professor and researcher Andrey Rzhetsky told EHN.

Vehicle exhaust pollutants linked to near doubling in risk of common eye condition -- Long term exposure to pollutants from vehicle exhaust is linked to a heightened risk of the common eye condition age-related macular degeneration, or AMD for short, suggests research published online in the Journal of Investigative Medicine.  Exposure to the highest levels of air pollutants was associated with an almost doubling in risk among those aged 50 and older, the findings show.  AMD is a neurodegenerative condition that affects the middle part of the retina, known as the macula. It is one of the most common causes of poor vision in older people, and is most likely caused by an interplay between genetic and environmental risk factors.

Michigan: Two million gallons of untreated sewage spill into Flint River -  Almost five and a half years into the still unresolved Flint water crisis, in which government officials at all levels criminally conspired to allow residents to drink lead- and bacteria-poisoned water for 18 months before acknowledging the problem, the city reported on Sunday that its Wastewater Treatment Plant spilled 2 million gallons of stormwater and sewage into the Flint River after heavy rain over the weekend. Genesee County issued a public advisory that people should avoid all contact with the Flint River. As of this writing six days later, there are no reports in the press or on government websites that the advisory has been lifted. It goes without saying that exposure to or ingestion of raw or partially treated sewage, as the city maintains is the case here, can cause immediate harmful effects. The multiple risks present stem from exposure to viruses such as rotavirus that can cause stomach flu-like symptoms, bacteria such as E. coli which can result in kidney failure and death, and parasites such as Cryptosporidiosis, which can cause diarrhea and fevers. Aside from these, which result from contact in some form, simply inhaling raw sewage fumes can cause asphyxiation and tissue damage. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that in the United States 7 million people on average per year, i.e., a population that would rank as the second largest city in the US, become ill from exposure to raw sewage, and 7 percent of these severely or fatally ill. While some of the illnesses are due to ingestion through drinking water, a majority are the result of external contact, often resulting from municipal spills. The Flint River has long been known to be highly polluted due to the unrestrained dumping of toxic waste into it by General Motors for the better part of a century. Six months after the switch was made to the Flint River for drinking water—when the entire political establishment was still lying to the public and saying that the brown, fowl-smelling water from the Flint River was safe to drink—it was revealed that GM had stopped using Flint River water in its production because the highly acidic water was corroding its parts.

‘The Next Flint,’ and America’s Problem with Lead in Its Water - Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: A U.S. city is facing a public health crisis, after years ofdenying that it had a problem with lead in its drinking water supply. In 2016, that would have been a reference to Flint, Michigan. This week, it’s Newark, New Jersey, where city officials on Sunday resorted to handing out bottled water to affected residents. Lead has long been recognized as a potent neurotoxin. The health effects of lead exposure in children include lowered IQ and increased risk of behavioral disorders. Exposed adults are more likely to develop a slew of health problems including nerve, kidney, and cardiovascular issues. Pregnant women and babies are especially vulnerable, as even low levels are associated with serious, irreversible damage to developing brains and nervous systems.No amount of lead is considered “safe,” but the federal government has set a limit of 15 parts per billion in drinking water. At one point, tests in Flint revealed lead levels at over 100 ppb. In July, a test showed Newark water lead levels at 55 ppb. In both cases residents say the city’s denials and delays came at a cost to their wellbeing.“The mayor keeps saying that this isn’t like Flint,” Newark resident Shakima Thomas told Grist way back in November. “It is the same as Flint in the way that they tried to cover it up. We were victimized by this administration. They gamble with our health. They put politics first before justice.” And that pattern appears to be continuing.  City officials have long denied it has a major lead problem with its drinking water, insisting the issue was limited to buildings with aging infrastructure — though they did shut water fountains down in more than 30 schools, providing bottled water instead. A city-wide water testing plan was set up in 2017 – and over the following 18 months, multiple tests showed more than 10 percent of homes in the city had lead levels exceeding the 15-parts-per-billion federal limit. Last fall, the city began giving out water filters to some 40,000 residents. But residents complained that they were not told how necessary the filters were, or were unclear on how to properly install them. Then last week, the Environmental Protection Agency sent the city a letter citing serious concerns about drinking water safety, saying the filters Newark residents were given may never have worked properly. The EPA tested water filtered through the city-provided filters and lead levels still came out above the federal limit.

Newark, New Jersey residents denounce Democrats over lead-poisoned water - Newark, the largest city in New Jersey, is facing a water crisis of historic proportions due to an outdated and poorly maintained water delivery system to both public and private buildings which has been leaching lead into the drinking water. The problem has matured over at least a decade with a wide-ranging cover-up and corruption in the management of the city’s water authority by city and state Democratic Party politicians. Blood tests have verified that a significant percentage of children in Newark have been exposed to lead, a strong neurotoxin. Even small amounts in the bloodstream can cause lasting damage, especially in young children, whose brain development can be impaired. Nearly a quarter of children under six in the city have tested positive for potentially harmful levels of lead in their blood, while 47.2 percent of Newark household taps tested exceed the action level for lead set by the Environmental Protection Agency. Authorities have traced the source of the heavy metal to corrosion in the citywide network of transmission pipes, some of which date back to the 1880s, combined with failures to control the problem through chemical treatments at the Pequannock Water Treatment Plant. Tens of thousands of homes in Newark and neighboring communities receive their water from the Pequannock system. Democratic Mayor Ras Baraka and New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Phil Murphy have downplayed the extent of the crisis. The city initially refused to release information about the extent of the danger. It was not until last October that the city, amid a lawsuit by the environmental group National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Newark Education Workers Caucus, began distributing filters to residents. Last week the city began handing out cases of bottled water after it was revealed that the filters were not removing lead from the water. On Tuesday city officials were forced to temporarily suspend the distribution of bottled water out of fear that cases labeled as “expired” would further increase the high level of social anger.

‘The Devil We Know:’ How DuPont Poisoned the World with Teflon --A new Netflix documentary titled, “The Devil We Know,” tells the story of DuPont’s decades-long cover-up of the harm caused by chemicals used to make its popular non-stick Teflon™ products. The film shows how the chemicals used to make Teflon poisoned people and the environment—not just in Parkersburg, West Virginia, where DuPont had a Teflon plant, but all over the world. It all began in 1945, when DuPont, renamed DowDuPont following its 2017 merger with Dow Chemical, began manufacturing Teflon, a product best known for its use in non-stick cookware, but also widely used in a variety of other consumer products, including waterproof clothing and furniture, food packaging, self-cleaning ovens, airplanes and cars. One of the key ingredients in DuPont’s Teflon was C8, a toxic, man-made chemical created by Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company, better known as 3M, to make Scotchgard. The chemical, also known as PFOS or PFOA, is what gave Teflon its non-stick properties. Both 3M and DuPont were well aware of the health hazards associated with C8. But that didn’t stop DuPont from dumping the toxic chemical into local waterways, where it made its way into public drinking water and subsequently sickened thousands of people, and ultimately killing many of them. The film features stories from a number of people who were affected by DuPont’s Teflon, including DuPont employees, children and adults in the surrounding community, as well as pets, livestock and wildlife. One of those stories is that of Sue Bailey, a former DuPont employee who gave birth to a son with half of a nose, one nostril, a serrated eyelid and a keyhole pupil where his iris and retina were detached. DuPont knew exposure to C8 could harm human health and cause birth defects.. One study on the chemical led by 3M, determined that the chemical could potentially cause birth defects in the eyes of rat fetuses.

PFAS contamination is likely at Pittsburgh airport. Airports may face legal challenges by doing nothing. - Reports from former firefighters, airport records, expert scientists and a military study indicate that the Pittsburgh International Airport is likely the source of a PFAS chemical plume. Airport officials say they are doing everything the law requires but declined to say if they are taking additional steps experts say are needed to protect the health of nearby residents. If the Allegheny County Airport Authority doesn't investigate the possibility of PFAS contamination released through firefighting foam, some lawyers say it could find itself in legal jeopardy. Airports are not required by law to investigate PFAS contamination. Still, there are more than 75 lawsuits across the country against entities that have discharged the foam containing PFAS, and the number is growing.Some airport industry officials hope that, because the Federal Aviation Administration [FAA] requires airports to use firefighting foam that contains PFAS, the airports won't be held liable for letting it contaminate their properties. Not every lawyer thinks this argument will hold up, and a lobbying group for the airport industry is pushing Congress to pass a law that will limit their financial exposure. As the legal questions get sorted out, airports across the country are deciding whether and how to respond to the potential health consequences for residents who live nearby. Since the early 1970s, airport firefighters have been using aqueous film forming foam [AFFF] to put out and prevent oil and gas fires, which are potentially more dangerous at airports. Although the firefighters say they didn't use the foam on many actual fires, the foam was used extensively during equipment testing, fire trainings, fuel spills and accidental discharges."Just about every drop of foam that they ever bought went onto the ground, into the soil, into the waterways of the state," said Bob Scharding, who worked as a firefighter at the airport from 1987 to 2007.  The foam contains PFAS, a toxic class of chemicals associated with cancers, kidney disease, low infant birth weights and hormone disruptions. PFAS contamination is typically measured in "parts per trillion" because of how toxic it can be even in miniscule quantities. The former Pittsburgh airport firefighters said the contamination may not be contained to only airport property and its surroundings. They described times when AFFF was used on a large restaurant fire on the North Side, along highways in the South Hills and during fire trainings at a North Park facility run by Allegheny County Emergency Services.

WHO Says Microplastics in Drinking Water Present 'Low' Risk - The UN's health agency on Thursday said that microplastics contained in drinking water posed a "low" risk at their current levels. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) — in its first report on the potential health risks of microplastic ingestion — also stressed more research was needed to reassure consumers. The report sums up a small but growing number of scientific studies on the subject and draws its conclusions from them.Microplastics arise when man-made materials degrade into tiny particles. While the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classifies them as any type of plastic fragment of less than 5 millimeters (about one-fifth of an inch), most human health concerns are focused on far smaller particles. The report's authors concluded that research should focus on chemical additives in plastic and the effects of microplastics small enough to enter tissues.Most plastic particles in water are more than 150 micrometers in diameter and are excreted from the body. But, the report said, "smaller particles are more likely to cross the gut wall and reach other tissues." "For these smallest size particles, where there is really limited evidence, we need to know more about what is being absorbed, the distribution and their impacts," said one of the authors, Jennifer De France.

Plastic Apocalypse- Dangerous Microplastics Invade Alps To Arctic, Found In Fresh Snow - A new study has revealed that high levels of microplastics have been detected in some of the most remote regions of the world. The discovery, published in the journal Science Advances, is the first international study on microplastics in snow, conducted by the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. Melanie Bergmann, the lead scientist, and her team of researchers found microplastics from the Alps to the Arctic contained high levels of the plastic fragment, raises questions about the environmental and health implications of potential exposure to airborne plastics. "I was really astonished concerning the high concentrations," said co-author Gunnar Gerdts, a marine microbiologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute. Bergmann explains that microplastics come from industrial economies where rubber and paints are used. The tiny fragments end up in the sea, where they're broken down by waves and ultraviolet radiation, before absorbing into the atmosphere. From there, the plastic particles are captured from the air during cloud development, can drift across the Earth via jet streams. At some point, the particles act as a nucleus around supercooled droplets can condense, and travel to Earth as snow.Bergmann noted how the scientific community was only in its infancy of examining the process of how microplastics get sucked up into the atmosphere then scattered around the world in some form of precipitation. She said, there's an "urgent need for research on human and animal health effects focusing on airborne microplastics."

Plastic, plastic everywhere - When we discard a plastic bag, an electronic device encased in plastic, a plastic pen emptied of its ink or any of the myriad plastic objects which populate our lives, we usually say we are throwing the object "away." By that we mean into a trash or recycling bin and from there to a landfill or recycling facility. I put "away" in quotes because if there were ever any piece of evidence to convince us that there is no "away" in the sense described above, it is the discovery of tiny particles of plastic in the Arctic ice, deep oceans and high mountains. These so-called microplastics are so ubiquitous now that they are believed to be floating in the air practically everywhere. Some tiny plastic bits have been seen the lungs of cancer patients who have died. Humans not only breathe them in, but also supposedly eat 50,000 of these particles every year. And, of course, we know absolutely nothing about the potential health effects of these microplastics on humans. We are frequently told that the novel chemicals humans design are supposed to bring us advantages which will make our lives better, more productive and less toilsome. The problem is that once these are released into the environment, they go everywhere. The industry line is that these releases are small, and that any which end up in the bodies of humans and animals will have little or no effect. But this has proven to be merely an industry ploy designed to delay the recognition of hazards as I wrote a few weeks ago.  There has been for some time a movement called "green chemistry" which aims to reduce the hazards associated with synthetic chemicals significantly. It does not, however, aim to eliminate them, at least in green chemistry's current form. That means that even if industry adopted the principles of green chemistry widely, the same releases of synthetic chemicals into the environment would take place.  Some will say it is hypocritical to enjoy the fruits of modern chemistry and yet complain about their side effects. After all, I am typing this piece on a plastic keyboard. I would say more accurately that it is impossible even to live in modern industrial society without participating in the degradation of the planetary environment.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to change things. There appear to be two clearly distinguishable paths available: 1) a path away from a society dependent on plastics and myriad other dangerous chemicals and 2) a path that continuously increases the toxicity and hazards of our environment until good health among humans and animals becomes an impossibility.

It’s Raining Plastic, From the Pyrenees to the Rockies to the Arctic - I often worry whether we aren’t one of those species that self-eliminates, that commits “ecological suicide” as many bacteria do when they turn their environment too acid to live in.   Microplastics are fibers that can be seen only with a microscope. The latest reports show that microplastic is not only present in abundance in the ocean, where much of our bulk plastic resides, but also in the air and, via the same settling effect that drops soot and dust to the surface of the earth, on the ground we walk across. One report from April of this year in Science reveals the amount of plastic descending on the Pyrenees in France: researchers collected particles falling from the sky in dust, rain, and snow for 5 months at the Bernadouze meteorological station in the Pyrenees mountains in southwestern France—100 kilometers from the nearest city. To their horror, the authors found plastics, predominantly the kind from the single-use packaging used in shipping. From their sample, they determined that each day, an average of 365 plastic particles sifted down from above into the square meter surface of the collection device. If comparable quantities of airborne microplastic fall across the rest of the country, the researchers estimate roughly 2000 tons of plastic blanket France each year, they report today in Nature Geoscience.   Another report in the Guardian says this about plastic falling on the Rockies: The discovery, published in a recent study (pdf) titled “It is raining plastic”, raises new questions about the amount of plastic waste permeating the air, water, and soil virtually everywhere on Earth. …  There’s even plastic landing on the ice floes of the Arctic. According to the UPI in April: “New research published on Wednesday in Science Advances shows that even the remote ice floes of the Arctic have measurable amounts of microplastics and microfibers gracing their surfaces.” We eat it, we drink it, we breathe it. Does it hurt us? Hard to imagine it doesn’t, though the subject is just now coming under scrutiny, as this study published in Science Direct notes: Microplastics have recently been detected in atmospheric fallout in Greater Paris. Due to their small size, they can be inhaled and may induce lesions in the respiratory system dependent on individual susceptibility and particle properties. Even though airborne microplastics are a new topic, several observational studies have reported the inhalation of plastic fibers and particles, especially in exposed workers, often coursing with dyspnea caused by airway and interstitial inflammatory responses.While the authors notes that inhaled microplastic can cause respiratory lesions, dispnea (shortness of breath) and inflammation, they don’t mention the relationship of chronic inflammation with cancer.I’m frankly not sure we can address the problem of plastic, for the same reason we can’t address the problem of fossil fuel as a source of atmospheric CO2. Both are too embedded in the way our species lives. As a result, both will be embedded in the way we die as w ell.

U.S. Recycling Industry Is Struggling To Figure Out A Future Without China - The U.S. used to send a lot of its plastic waste to China to get recycled. But last year, China put the kibosh on imports of the world's waste. The policy, called National Sword, freaked out people in the U.S. — a huge market for plastic waste had just dried up. Where was it all going to go now? In March, executives from big companies that make or package everything from water to toothpaste in plastic met in Washington, D.C. Recyclers and the people who collect and sort trash were there too. It was the whole chain that makes up the plastic pipeline. It was a time of reckoning. John Caturano of Nestlé Waters North America, which makes bottled water, said plastic is getting a bad reputation. "The water bottle has in some ways become the mink coat or the pack of cigarettes. It's socially not very acceptable to the young folks, and that scares me," he said during a panel called Life After National Sword. Sunil Bagaria, who runs recycling company GDB International, took his colleagues to task. "Forever, we have depended on shipping our scrap overseas," he bemoaned. "Let's stop that." European countries, he added, "are recycling 35% to 40% [of their plastic waste]. The U.S. only recycles 10%. How tragic is that?" After a couple of days of this, a woman named Kara Pochiro from the Association of Plastic Recyclers stood up and said not to panic. "Plastic recycling isn't dead, and it works, and it's important to protecting our environment, and it's essential to the circular economy," she reassured. "Circular economy" is now a catchphrase that some say is a way out of the plastic mess. The idea is essentially this: Society needs plastic, but people need to recycle a lot more of it and use it again and again and again. That will eliminate a lot of waste and cut down on the avalanche of new plastic made every year.

Marium, Thailand’s Beloved Baby Dugong, Is the Latest Victim of Plastic Pollution - Marium, an 8-month-old dugong who became an internet sensation in Thailand this spring, died after ingesting plastic, officials announced Saturday. The marine mammal rose to fame when she was found lost and motherless near a beach in Southern Thailand, according to NPR and the Associated Press. Videos of marine biologists feeding her with milk and seagrass, caressing her and even singing to her spread online, turning her into a star."She taught us how to love and then went away as if saying please tell everyone to look after us and conserve her species," veterinarian Nantarika Chansue wrote in a Facebook post reported by AFP. Thailand goes gaga for baby dugong Mariam – YouTube  She was found bruised last week after being chased by a male dugong and was brought in for treatment, Department of Marine and Coastal Resources Director-General Jatuporn Buruspat told the Associated Press."We assume she wandered off too far from her natural habitat and was chased and eventually attacked by another male dugong, or dugongs, as they feel attracted to her," Jatuporn said.But Marium suffered from more than external bruising. She died of shock shortly after midnight Saturday when attempts to resuscitate her with CPR failed, AFP reported. The shock was caused by an infection made worse by several pieces of plastic in her intestine, her caregivers found. One piece was as long as eight inches. The plastic inflamed her intestines, leading to a buildup of gas in her digestive tract, infection in her blood and pus in her lungs, The Washington Post reported.

ArcelorMittal and state officials hid news of Indiana chemical spill - Three northwest Indiana beaches were closed in the Portage, Indiana, area on Friday following a chemical spill at ArcelorMittal Burns Harbor steel mill, which dumped cyanide and ammonia-nitrogen into the Little Calumet River on Monday, which feeds into Lake Michigan, one of five Great Lakes. City and state officials have warned the public to stay out of the water until it is deemed safe. Ammonium nitrate can cause irritation to the eyes, nose and skin in humans. Cyanide exposure causes harm to humans and other animals by preventing cells from using oxygen, causing the cells to die. It can cause damage to the heart, brain and nerves. The National Park Service closed the Portage Lakefront and Riverwalk beaches, both of which are a part of Indiana Dunes National Park, known throughout the world for its high levels of biodiversity. The nearby Ogden Dunes community also closed its beaches and restricted its water intake from Lake Michigan following news of the spill. It is not clear exactly how much of the lake itself was contaminated by the chemicals. Lake Michigan supplies drinking water to several large US metropolitan areas, including northwest Indiana and the greater Chicago metropolitan area. ArcelorMittal alerted state officials on August 12 about a plume of the toxic chemicals, which had been released into the waterway. The exact day and time of the spill are unknown. . Portage Republican Mayor John Cannon accused the Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) of failing to notify “city officials and citizens” until August 15, several days later. The spill killed hundreds of fish, causing a strong, foul odor as they decayed in the harbors around the area, which are open to the public for recreation. Boaters also reported seeing scores of dead fish floating in the water before the community was officially notified of the chemical spill.

High Arsenic Levels Found at Miami Soccer Stadium Site – Threatening to derail the project, an environmental analysis found arsenic contamination more than double the legal limit at the site of David Beckham’s proposed $1 billion Major League Soccer complex in Miami. The Inter Miami soccer club was awarded an MLS franchise in 2018, and owners including retired player Beckham have since laid out plans to develop the massive Miami Freedom Park complex that includes a 25,000-seat stadium. Inter Miami had been looking to build on the 131-acre property of the International Links Melreese Country Club east of the Miami International Airport, but property cleanup may be more costly than initially expected. An analysis by environmental consulting firm EE&G, obtained by the Miami Herald, reportedly showed pollution underneath the surface of the golf course caused by ash from a now-shuttered city incinerator – including arsenic contamination more than twice the legal limit. The report also found illegal levels of barium and lead in the more than 140 soil samples taken in recent months, according to the Herald. Additional testing by the Miami-Dade County Department of Environmental Resources Management showed similar results, including high concentrations of lead in the soil.

July was Earth’s hottest month since records began, with the globe missing 1 million square miles of sea ice  - Data from thousands of surface monitoring stations worldwide, including ocean buoys in the Pacific and land-based thermometers dotting the continents, show that July 2019 was the warmest month on Earth since at least 1850. Berkeley Earth, an independent climate monitoring and research organization, released data Thursday showing last month beat August 2016 for the title of the warmest month by 0.14 degrees (0.08 Celsius). “Though the margin is small, given the uncertainty range, we consider July 2019 to have set a new record for the highest monthly average temperature,” the organization said in an analysis. Previously, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service had found that July 2019 was the warmest month on record, though by a small margin compared to its previous hottest month on record.  The NOAA also announced Thursday that July was the warmest month on record, with the global average surface temperature coming in at 1.71 degrees (0.95 Celsius) warmer than the 20th century average. According to Deke Arndt, head of climate monitoring for NOAA, July 2019 marked the 415th straight month that was warmer than the 20th century average. In keeping with accelerating global warming, nine of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2005, NOAA found.  At the end of the month, both Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice were at their lowest levels on record for the month, missing a total of 1 million square miles of ice, according to NOAA. If this were a country, Arndt said, it would be the 10th largest nation worldwide.  What makes the July temperature record, as well as the year-to-date trajectory, stand out so much is that there is no longer an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Such natural climate cycles feature warmer than average ocean temperatures that send extra heat into the atmosphere, boosting the planet’s average temperature. A particularly strong El Niño during 2016 propelled that year to record levels, yet in 2019 there has only been a weak El Niño that recently dissipated entirely.

 Workers in Heat Waves Face Dangerous Exposure in the US Southwest - Real News Network, video & transcript - In the second week of August, 2019, a dangerous heat wave was declared as a public safety concern for 13 States from Kentucky to California with triple digit temperatures in areas where millions of people live. ,According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, July, 2019 was the hottest month on record in over 100 years. Well, for most workers and students staying indoors was enough to repel the danger. For people working outside, the situation can turn pretty dire.

These Are the Challenges Facing India’s Most Sacred River --The Ganges is a lifeline for the people of India, spiritually and economically. On its journey from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal, it supports fishermen, farmers and an abundance of wildlife.The river and its tributaries touch the lives of roughly 500 million people. But having flowed for millennia, today it is reaching its capacity for human and industrial waste, while simultaneously being drained foragriculture and municipal use. Here are some of the challenges the river faces.

• Dolphins in Peril: Large schools of freshwater dolphins, known as Ganges River dolphins, were once found along the river. Now they swim in small groups or alone, and have become endangered due to pollution, dams, irrigation projects and the dredging of new shipping channels.
• Raw Sewage: More than 1 billion litres of raw sewage flow into the river every day. In places, the water's bacteria count reaches 3,000 times the limit declared safe for bathing by the World Health Organization.
• Plastic Pollution: Plastic and industrial waste, such as waste water from the leather tanneries that sit on the banks of the Ganges, are another cause of pollution.
• Lack of Water: But perhaps the most worrying problem facing the river is its increasing lack of water. Water for irrigation is being removed faster than the rainy season can replenish it.
• Dams and Diversions: The Ganges is being throttled by more than 300 dams and diversions, with many more blocking its tributaries, stopping the natural ebb and flow of the river.
• Monsoon Rains: Climate change is making the monsoon rains unpredictable, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events like droughts, and leaving the fishermen of the Ganges with dwindling catches.

Sydney dams set to drop below half capacity for first time since 2004 -- The dams serving metropolitan Sydney will sink below 50 per cent full for the first time in 15 years by the weekend, with long-range weather forecasts suggesting the slide could accelerate.Sydney's storages dropped to 50.1 per cent capacity on Thursday, and are losing 0.4 percentage points per week with little prospects for more than the odd shower. Avon Dam in the Woronora catchment area to Sydney's south is sitting at just below 50 per cent full - about where the overall storages for the city sit. The Bureau of Meteorology's three-monthly outlook for the September-November period suggests the relatively dry times will continue for most of the nation, including most of NSW. The key climate influence is from the Indian Ocean, where conditions off north-western Australia favour reduced moisture flows. Such a pattern typically produces a drier than normal spring for south-eastern Australia. The odds also suggest day-time temperatures for most of the continent will be warmer than average for the September-November stint.  Coastal showers have bumped up Sydney's winter rainfall tallies but these have virtually dried up in July and August. Inland regions, such as the city's catchments, have been drier still. The last time Sydney's dams dropped below the 50 per cent was in May 2004, during the Millennium drought of the mid-2000s.  According to a WaterNSW spokesman, the rate of the present slide in storage levels continues to exceed the pace of that dry spell more than a decade ago. The decline continues even though Sydney's desalination plant began producing water for the city's users in March and reached full capacity of about 15 per cent of total demand at the start of August, a spokesman said. Sydneysiders have responded to first-stage restrictions, with usage about 7 per cent lower since July than forecast, a Sydney Water spokesman said. Total demand is about 100 million litres per day less than a year ago.

 Poland lightning strike kills four, injures 100, in Tatra mountains storm - At least four people died and more than 100 were injured in lightning strikes during a thunderstorm in Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says. The worst bolt fell on a group of hikers at the summit of Giewont, a popular peak in the Tatra range in the south of the country. A fifth person was killed in neighbouring Slovakia. At least one of the victims was said to be a child. The storm is said to have descended suddenly after a sunny morning. "Nobody expected such a sudden storm to break out and from our human point of view it was something which was impossible to predict," Mr Morawiecki said an emergency meeting in the region. There were reports of casualties in different parts of the mountain range. At least four rescue helicopters were sent to the area. map The worst incident occurred on Thursday at the top of the 1,894m (6,214ft) Giewont mountain, where a metal cross is sited. A lightning bolt is thought to have struck the 15m structure at a time when a large number of hikers were at the summit, and the current then travelled along a metal railing. "We heard that after (the) lightning struck, people fell. The current then continued along the chains securing the ascent, striking everyone along the way. It looked bad," Polish mountain rescue service chief Jan Krzysztof told the country's PAP news agency. A resident in the mountain resort town of Zakopane in the Tatra region posted a video showing the thunderstorm.

9,000 Flee ‘Unprecedented’ Wildfires on Spain's Gran Canaria Island - Wildfires raging on Gran Canaria, the second most populous of Spain's Canary Islands, have forced around 9,000 people to evacuate.The fires, which started Saturday, have entered the Tamadaba Natural Park, where some of the island's oldest pine forests grow. Authorities called it an "an unprecedented environmental tragedy," as BBC News reported Monday.Firefighters are struggling to control the blazes due to high temperatures, strong winds and low humidity."The fire is not contained nor stabilised or controlled," Canary Islands President Angel Victor Torres told reporters Sunday, as BBC News reported. So far, the flames have consumed an estimated 10,000 hectares (approximately 24,700 acres), AFP reported Tuesday. A crew of 1,000 firefighters and others are battling the blaze, making it the biggest firefighting mobilization in the history of the Canary Islands, Agriculture Minister Luis Planas told AFP.

Record Number of Fires Burning in Amazon Rainforest --  There are a record number of wildfires burning in the Amazon rainforest, Brazil's space agency has said. Their smoke is visible from space and shrouded the city of São Paulo in darkness for about an hour Monday afternoon, CBS news reported. "It was as if the day had turned into night," São Paulo resident Gianvitor Dias told BBC News of the incident. "Everyone here commented, because even on rainy days it doesn't usually get that dark. It was very impressive." The darkening of São Paulo — caused when wind carried smoke from fires burning 2,700 kilometers (approximately 1,678 miles) away — focused international attention on the fires, as the hashtag #prayforamazonia began to trend on Twitter.Also on Monday, Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) announced that a record number of fires were burning in the world's largest rainforest, Al Jazeera reported. The agency said that it had spotted nearly 73,000 fires in the Brazilian Amazon since January, up 83 percent from the year before. Satellite images have turned up more than 9,500 new fires since Thursday alone.The fires also showed up on National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite images captured Aug. 11 and 13. The U.S. agency said that fire activity in the Amazon had actually been below average this year. While it was above average in the states of Amazonas and Rondônia, it was below average in Mato Grosso and Pará. The state of Amazonas declared an emergency for its south and its capital Manaus on Aug. 9, Reuters reported. The state of Acre, on Brazil's border with Peru, declared an environmental alert Friday.

The Amazon is burning and smoke from the fires can be seen from space --Major wildfires are burning all over the world right now. More than 21,000 square miles of forest have gone up in flames in Siberia this month, putting Russia on track for its worst year on record for wildfires. The smoke from these blazes shrouded large parts of the country, including major cities like Novosibirsk, and has crossed the Pacific Ocean into the United States.  On Monday, a wildfire in the Canary Islands forced more than 8,000 people to flee. Over the weekend, new fires ignited in Alaska, extending what’s already been an unusually long fire season for the state. Last week, Denmark dispatched firefighters to Greenland combat a wildfire approaching inhabited areas. If not extinguished, officials are worried the blaze would burn through the winter, further driving up the already massive ice melt Greenland has experienced this year amid record heat.  California, which suffered its most destructive wildfire season on record in 2018, is having a much calmer year by comparison, although the potential for a major fire remains. But perhaps even more alarming are the wildfires in the Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest tropical forest. It’s an area with torrential rain that almost never burns on its own, yet the blazes have burned for more than two weeks, growing so intense that they sent smoke all the way to São Paulo, Brazil’s largest city. The state of Amazonas has declared an emergency. The #PrayforAmazonia tag has surged on social media as users blamed darkened skies above São Paulo on the fires, though some meteorologists said the low clouds were a normal weather phenomenon.

The Amazon in Brazil is on fire - how bad is it? - Thousands of fires are ravaging the Amazon rainforest in Brazil - the most intense blazes for almost a decade.The northern states of Roraima, Acre, Rondônia and Amazonas have been particularly badly affected.However, images purported to be of the fires - including some shared under the hashtag #PrayforAmazonia - have been shown to be decades old or not even in Brazil.So what's actually happening and how bad are the fires?  Brazil has seen a record number of fires in 2019, Brazilian space agency data suggests. The National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) says its satellite data shows an 85% increase on the same period in 2018. The official figures show more than 75,000 forest fires were recorded in Brazil in the first eight months of the year - the highest number since 2013. That compares with 40,000 in the same period in 2018. Forest fires are common in the Amazon during the dry season, which runs from July to October. They can be caused by naturally occurring events, such as by lightning strikes, but also by farmers and loggers clearing land for crops or grazing. Activists say the anti-environment rhetoric of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has encouraged such tree-clearing activities. In response, Mr Bolsonaro, a long-time climate change sceptic, accused non-governmental organisations of starting the fires themselves to damage his government's image. He later said the government lacked the resources to fight the flames.

The World Can't Survive Without the Amazon: Here's Why - As you’ve likely heard by now, there are fires ravaging the Amazon rainforest; the current fires are so extreme, they can be seen from space. The record-breaking blaze is believed to be started by cattle farmers, as a way to illegally deforest land, and is unlike anything the region has seen before: This year alone, there have been more than 72,000 fires — an increase of more than 83 percent from January to August of the year prior. And these fires aren’t just a catastrophe for those living in and around the rainforest, the destruction of the Amazon would be a disaster for everyone who lives on Earth.  The Amazon is called the “lungs of the Earth” and for good reason — around 20 percent of the planet’s oxygen originates in the Amazon. The vast rainforest also absorbs carbon dioxide and lowers the amount of greenhouse gases, therefore regulating global temperatures and, in effect, slowing the rate of climate change.  As Fernando Espírito-Santo, a researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, found, dead Amazonian trees emit around 1.9 billion tons of carbon a year, but the rainforest absorbs more than 2.2 billion tons of CO2, making it a sink for carbon dioxide (in other words, it absorbs more CO2 than it produces). If the rainforest were to dry out — from deforestation, drought, or the fires — it could instead become a source of more carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, contributing to climate change, rather than fighting it.  Additionally, deforestation could have extreme effects on the weather all over the world. As Deborah Lawrence, an environmental scientist at the University of Virginia, found, the loss of the rainforest could change rainfall patterns around the globe, which — in turn — could have a devastating impact on agriculture.  “Most people know that climate change is a dangerous global problem, and that it’s caused by pumping carbon into the atmosphere. But it turns out that removing forests alters moisture and airflow, leading to changes — from fluctuating rainfall patterns to rises in temperatures — that are just as hazardous, and happen right away,” she said per Climate News Network. “The impacts go beyond the tropics — the U.K. and Hawaii could see an increase in rainfall, while the U.S. Midwest and Southern France could see a decline.”

Are farmers setting the Amazon ablaze in support of Bolsonaro?  - Farmers are reportedly setting fire to the Amazon rainforest to show support for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s policy of opening up protected areas to private ownership. According to a widely disseminated article in a small newspaper, Folha do Progresso, the organizers of this “Day of Fire” are hoping that 2019 sets a record for burning.Ranchers and farmers routinely use fire in tropical agriculture to clear land for planting and cattle pastures, but the practice had slowed before Bolsonaro took office in January. Brazil’s space research agency reported this week that fires have increased 84 percent this year compared to the dry season last year. On Monday, smoke from rampant fires plunged Sao Paulo into darkness in the afternoon.Many news outlets have said the 74,000 fires Brazil has seen this year sets a record, but that’s based on statistics that only date back to 2013. And deforestation is actually down from its peak in the 1980s. The real, undisputable news here is that there’s been a spike in fires and deforestation under Bolsonaro. And given the Amazon rainforest’s important role in capturing carbon emissions, the stakes seem much higher.Christian Poirier, a program director for the nonprofit Amazon Watch, said that farmers were clearly emboldened by Bolsonaro to burn forests. “The fires currently ravaging the Amazon are directly related to President Bolsonaro’s anti-environmental rhetoric, in which he errantly frames forests and forest protections as impediments to Brazil’s economic growth. Farmers and ranchers understand the president’s message as a license to commit arson with wanton impunity, in order to aggressively expand their operations into the rainforest.”Bolsonaro isn’t exactly taking credit, saying he had a “feeling” that the fires were set by nonprofit environmental groups trying to make his government look bad.There’s been a huge growth in Brazil’s farms, especially after President Donald Trump’s trade war sent China — the top buyer of U.S. soybeans — shopping in South America. But the farm boom won’t improve the lives of poor Brazilians if it depends on dismantling environmental protections, said Toby Gardner, the director of nonprofit Trase. He sees Brazil trending toward “apparent disregard for devastating effects of environmental degradation seen from the recent and unprecedented spate of wildfires, set by landowners to clear forest for agriculture,” he said in an email.  Brazil’s massive forests are a critical part of the Earth’s life support system. The Amazon holds some 17 percent of the world’s plant-based carbon, and fires release that greenhouse gas. It’s home to millions of unique species and people. Fires are also burning in Brazil’s Cerrado — the central savanna — and its other forests.

Amazon fires: Merkel and Macron urge G7 to debate 'emergency' - The French and German leaders say the record number of fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest is an international crisis which must be discussed at this weekend's G7 summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the "acute emergency" belonged on the agenda, agreeing with French President Emmanuel Macron's earlier rallying cry. "Our house is burning," he tweeted. Environmental groups say the fires are linked to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's policies, which he denies. Mr Bolsonaro has also accused Mr Macron of meddling for "political gain". He said calls to discuss the fires at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, which Brazil is not participating in, evoke "a misplaced colonialist mindset". The largest rainforest in the world, the Amazon is a vital carbon store that slows down the pace of global warming. It is also home to about three million species of plants and animals, and one million indigenous people. Satellite data published by the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) has shown an increase of 85% this year in fires across Brazil, most of them in the Amazon region. Conservationists say Mr Bolsonaro has encouraged loggers and farmers to clear the land. Mr Bolsonaro has suggested that non-governmental organisations (NGOs) started the fires, but admitted he had no evidence for this claim. In comments on Thursday, he acknowledged that farmers might be involved in setting fires in the region, according to Reuters news agency. Environmental groups have called for protests in cities across Brazil on Friday to demand action to combat the fires.

Bolsonaro Admits Farmers May Have Started Amazon Wildfires, Warns World Not To Interfere - As the outcry over the wildfires currently tearing through the Amazon intensifies, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro admitted on Thursday that farmers might be illegally setting fires to clear land for pasture, after previously blaming NGOs for the the 85% spike in wildfires, compared to 2018 Reuters reports. But he warned outsiders not to interfere, as French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that the situation in Brazil should be discussed by the G-7 in Biarritz this weekend, while UN Secretary General Antonio Gutterres expressed concern about the fires via Twitter. Macron called the fires "an international crisis" in a tweet.  But Bolsonaro was angered by what he described as 'meddling', and mocked countries like Germany and Norway that recently suspended financing for projects intended to curb deforestation. "These countries that send money here, they don’t send it out of charity...They send it with the aim of interfering with our sovereignty," Bolsonaro said. That said, their money is still welcome: earlier on Thursday, he admitted that Brazil alone doesn't have the resources to suppress the 'criminal' fires. "The Amazon is bigger than Europe, how will you fight criminal fires in such an area?” he asked reporters as he left the presidential residence. "We do not have the resources for that." According to government figures, wildfires have nearly doubled during this year's dry season. Federal prosecutors said they were investigating the spike in deforestation and wildfires in the state of Pará to determine whether there has been reduced monitoring and enforcement of environmental protections.

The Coming Amazon Desert - What’s left of the Amazon rain forest is burning from hundreds of fires the orcs have set to clear space for ranching, timber plantations, mining and industrial farming. The lush paradise of water is burned out and transformed to arid pasture which withers to dust in a few years. The same scorched earth campaigns are underway in Southeast Asia, Africa and elsewhere. This final burndown is civilization’s final push to exterminate as many plant and animal species as possible and turn the entire terrestrial Earth into a desert. The Amazon and its companion rain forests are the lungs and the rainmakers of the world. Much of the Western hemisphere depends for its rain ultimately on weather patterns driven by the transpiration of the Amazon. Civilization’s goal is to stop the rain, permanently. And the destruction of the breathing forests, coupled with the heating and acid assault on the even more oxygenating ocean ecology, has the goal of rendering Earth’s system of oxygen, our very life breath, stagnant and failing. The elemental death wish, the fundamental urge to collective suicide at the heart of civilization, couldn’t be displayed more starkly, short of a joyous frenzied nuclear missile party, the 1914-style celebration of the launch of WWIII, which we may yet see as the entire US political class is lusting for it.Civilization always has been an arsonist, modern civilization is the worst firebug of all. Starting in what used to be the Fertile Crescent, wherever civilization has gone it has turned fertility to desert. Thus the deserts have spread over the Middle East, southern Asia, Australia, North Africa, Latin America, the West and Great Plains of North America. The destruction of as little as 20% of what’s left of the Amazon – a few years more at this rate of arson – will render the residue untenable. The whole thing will wither to rainless dust.Brazilian president Bolsonaro always has openly declared this to be his goal, to transform Brazil and as much of the hemisphere as possible into a desert. His voters, his supporters in Brazil, across Latin America, and in the US and European governments, all ardently embrace this goal. They prove it by their words and especially their actions.This ecocidal goal dovetails with Bolsonaro’s proclaimed genocidal goal: What’s left of Brazil’s indigenous peoples must cease to exist, through forced assimilation or whatever other way is necessary. It’s clear that this government considers these natural peoples to be outside the law, and the orcs have gotten the message. Already hundreds have been murdered by ranchers, miners, loggers and other predators.

More Wildfires Are Burning In Angola & Congo Than Brazil -  Thanks to a concerted effort by American social media 'influencers', everybody and their grandmother is now aware of the fact that wildfires - many of which were allegedly started illegally by farmers seeking to clear out more land for farming or pasture - are tearing through the Amazon. What many don't realize is that the wildfires in the 'lungs of the Earth' - as French President Emmanuel Macron described the Amazon - actually aren't that uncommon. In fact, they're a natural part of the rainforest's process of self-restoration. In total, this year, fires are up by 83% compared with last year. And while the rest of the world uses the fires as an excuse to slam Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his environmental policies (some have accused him of tacitly condoning the farmers who set the fires), Bloomberg reports that Brazil is actually third in the world in wildfires over the last 48 hours, citing data from the MODIS satellite analyzed by Weather Source. Weather Source recorded 6,902 fires in Angola over the past 48 hours, 3,395 in the Democratic Republic of Congo and 2,127 in Brazil.  Like in the Amazon and in California, wildfires aren't all that uncommon in Central Africa.  As for the total number of active wildfires, they're also nowhere near some of the highs recorded in recent years. According to NASA, more than 67,000 fires were reported in a one-week period in June last year, most of which were started by farmers. Over the past two days, roughly 16,500 wildfires were recorded in the top 10 countries. Actually, as far as wildfires go, 2019 isn't out of the ordinary in any meaningful sense.

Peru to End Palm Oil Driven Deforestation by 2021 -- Last week, the Peruvian Palm Oil Producers' Association (JUNPALMA) promised to enter into an agreement for sustainable and deforestation-free palm oil production. The promise was secured by the U.S. basedNational Wildlife Federation (NWF) in collaboration with the local government, growers and the independent conservation organization Sociedad Peruana de Ecodesarrollo.If JUNPALMA honors the deforestation-free agreement, Peru will be the second country in South America after Colombia to make such a commitment.The announcement was made during IX Expo Amazonica, which is focused on the promotion and debate over the Peruvian Amazon's sustainable development. If successful, Peru could be palm oil deforestation-free by 2021, according to the NWF.During the expo, Peru's Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Gustavo Mostajo reportedly said that the national government aims to develop deforestation-free agriculture with a focus on family farms and small producers.Palm oil smallholder farmers function as independent palm producers and sell palm to nearby plantations. The exchange isn't always financial — it often involves in-kind benefits like credit during early years when the trees aren't producing yet.

Arctic permafrost is thawing fast. That affects us all. -- It was summer in eastern Siberia, far above the Arctic Circle, in that part of Russia that’s closer to Alaska than to Moscow. There wasn’t a speck of frost or snow in sight. Yet at this cliff, called Duvanny Yar, the Kolyma River had chewed through and exposed what lies beneath: a layer of frozen ground, or permafrost, that is hundreds of feet deep—and warming fast.  Twigs, other plant matter, and Ice Age animal parts—bison jaws, horse femurs, mammoth bones—spilled onto a beach that sucked at Zimov’s boots. Across nine million square miles at the top of the planet, climate change is writing a new chapter. Arctic permafrost isn’t thawing gradually, as scientists once predicted. Geologically speaking, it’s thawing almost overnight. As soils like the ones at Duvanny Yar soften and slump, they’re releasing vestiges of ancient life—and masses of carbon—that have been locked in frozen dirt for millennia. Entering the atmosphere as methane or carbon dioxide, the carbon promises to accelerate climate change, even as humans struggle to curb our fossil fuel emissions. Few understand this threat better than Sergey Zimov. From a ramshackle research station in the gold-mining outpost of Cherskiy, about three hours by speedboat from Duvanny Yar, he has spent decades unearthing the mysteries of a warming Arctic. Along the way, he has helped upend conventional wisdom—especially the notion that the far north, back in the Pleistocene ice ages, had been an unbroken desert of ice and thin soils dotted with sage. Instead, the abundant fossils of mammoths and other large grazers at Duvanny Yar and other sites told Zimov that Siberia, Alaska, and western Canada had been fertile grasslands, rich with herbs and willows. As these plants and animals died, the cold slowed their decomposition. Over time, windblown silt buried them deep, locking them in permafrost. The upshot is that Arctic permafrost is much richer in carbon than scientists once thought.  Now new discoveries suggest that the carbon will escape faster as the planet warms. From the unexpected speed of Arctic warming and the troubling ways that meltwater moves through polar landscapes, researchers now suspect that for every one degree Celsius rise in Earth’s average temperature,permafrost may release the equivalent of four to six years’ worth of coal, oil, and natural gas emissions—double to triple what scientists thought a few years ago. Within a few decades, if we don’t curb fossil fuel use, permafrost could be as big a source of greenhouse gases as China, the world’s largest emitter, is today.

Video: The North Atlantic ocean current, which warms northern Europe, may be slowing – A stubborn blue spot of cool ocean temperatures stands out like the proverbial sore thumb in a recent NASA image of the warming world – a circle of cool blue on a planet increasingly shaded in hot red. A region of the North Atlantic south of Greenland has experienced some of its coldest temperatures on record in recent years, a cooling unprecedented in the past thousand years. What explains that anomaly?  Climatologist Michael Mann of Penn State University, in this month’s “This is Not Cool” video, explains that this phenomenon may be an indication that the North Atlantic current, part of a larger global ocean circulation, is slowing down.  This current played a role in the 2004 science fiction movie The Day After Tomorrow, a film that was “based on science, but greatly overblown” and that therefore “frustrated a lot of climatologists,” Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland points out. Stefan Rahmstorf of the University of Potsdam, Germany, says this circulation – called the thermohaline circulation, but popularly known to many in the U.S. as “the Gulf Stream” – keeps northern Europe several degrees warmer than it would otherwise be at that latitude.Although the movie’s disaster plot was pure science fiction, the consequences of a shutdown would be serious for agriculture – and for temperate weather – in northern Europe.  The current depends on the saltiness of the North Atlantic to create the sinking motion of water, that is, it’s the “pump” driving the current. Saltier water is heavier than fresh water. As the Greenland ice sheet melts, large volumes of fresh water enter the North Atlantic and freshen the very salty sea water, slowing the “pump,”   “That would make it terribly cold in Denmark, where I come from,” Steffensen says. “In principle, there’s no reason why Earth could not get warmer but still northern Europe and North America could get cold.

'We Should Be Retreating Already From the Coastline,' Scientist Suggests After Finding Warm Waters Below Greenland -- "There is enough ice in Greenland to raise the sea levels by 7.5 meters, that's about 25 feet, an enormous volume of ice, and that would be devastating to coastlines all around the planet," said Josh Willis, a NASA oceanographer, to CNN. "We should be retreating already from the coastline if we are looking at many meters [lost] in the next century or two."  Willis and his research team at NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland have been seeing some alarming patterns as they jet around the island's coastline since heat waves bore down on the U.S. and Europe at the end of July, as CNN reported. Not only is the surface temperature warmer, turning Greenland into a slush-filled mess, but the ocean temperature deep under the water is also rising. The warming water eats away at the foundation of the glaciers, meaning Greenland's massive ice sheet is getting weaker at the top and the bottom, which spells trouble for the entire world. "Greenland has impacts all around the planet. A billion tons of ice lost here raises sea levels in Australia, in Southeast Asia, in the United States, in Europe," said Willis to CNN. "We are all connected by the same ocean." The scientists looking at the ice and waters found a large opening of water near Helheim glacier, a huge 4-mile glacier on Greenland's east coast, that had warm water along its entire depth, more than 2,000 feet below the surface, as CNN reported."It's very rare anywhere on the planet to see 700 meters of no temperature variation, normally we find colder waters in the upper hundred meters or so, but right in front of the glacier it's warm all the way up," said Ian Fenty, a climate scientist at NASA, to CNN. "These warm waters now are able to be in direct contact with the ice over its entire face, supercharging the melting." Helheim has made news the past two summers. Two years ago it lost a huge 2-mile piece. Last summer a chunk the size of lower Manhattan broke off and was captured on video, as National Geographic reported. "It retreats by many meters per day, it's tens of meters per day. You can probably set your iPhone on timelapse and actually see it go by," said Willis to CNN.

Sea level rise could claim Mar-a-Lago — and Trump’s empire - Someday, in the not-so-distant future, sea-level rise could claim Mar-a-Lago. Perhaps President Trump — by then no doubt disgraced, shunned and all but forgotten — would still be around to see his beloved Florida resort wiped out by a “Chinese hoax.”Of all the wrongheaded policies Trump and his Republican Party insist on pursuing, their stubborn denial of climate change is the most baffling — and the most obviously self-destructive. Everything is personal with Trump. Can’t anybody get it through his head that his own coastal properties are urgently threatened? And that he is going out of his way to hasten their demise?The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Thursday that July 2019 was the hottest month on planet Earth since record-keeping began in the 1880s. Wherever you live, think back to all the punishing heat waves you’ve experienced. Globally, July was worse.The month saw unprecedented triple-digit temperatures in parts of Europe where summers are usually mild at best. On July 25, thermometers in Cambridge, England, soared to 101.7 degrees Fahrenheit — a record for Britain. That same day, Paris saw a high of 108.7 degrees , which broke the previous record by a full four degrees. Meanwhile, much of the United States baked in an unrelenting heat wave, with day after day in the 90s. And earlier in July, Alaska saw its highest temperatures since record-keeping began, with residents of Anchorage enduring a Floridian 90-degree afternoon. July also saw the area covered by polar sea ice shrink to record lows in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions, according to NOAA. In the Arctic, there was almost 20 percent less ice than normal, or what used to be normal.

Countries most exposed to climate change face higher costs of capital - In east Africa millions of people are suffering from a prolonged drought. Deadly typhoons are wreaking havoc in Vietnam. Honduran coffee-farmers are seeing their crops wither in the heat. Poor countries have less capacity than rich ones to adapt to changing weather patterns, and tend to be closer to the equator, where weather patterns are becoming most volatile. As the world heats up, they will suffer most. By 2030 poor countries will need to spend $140bn-300bn each year on adaptive measures, such as coastal defences, if they want to avoid the harm caused by climate change. That estimate, from the un Environment Programme, assumes that global temperatures will be only 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, which seems unlikely.  The research focuses on the v20, a group founded by 20 vulnerable countries whose membership has since grown to 48. The members are mostly poor, together accounting for less than 5% of global gdp. They include low-lying atolls, such as the Marshall Islands, and economies dominated by agriculture, such as Kenya.  After controlling for non-climate factors, such as income per person and levels of public debt, the researchers estimate that v20 countries must pay interest rates 1.2 percentage points higher than comparable countries. That raises the v20’s borrowing costs by about 10%, equivalent to an extra $4bn each year in interest payments. Companies may also be charged more for loans if they are perceived as more exposed to climate-related risks.. A fifth of the companies, holding about 3% of the total debt, were in the countries most vulnerable to climate change. They were charged interest rates on average 0.83 percentage points higher—again roughly a 10% premium. High interest rates largely reflect a greater risk of default. So credit-rating agencies are looking at climate risks, too. Undiversified economies that are reliant on agriculture are particularly susceptible, says Marie Diron of Moody’s. In the 37 countries that the firm thinks are most vulnerable, farming accounts for 44% of employment on average. (Together they have issued $2.8trn of sovereign debt, about 4% of the world’s total.) Those relying on tourism could also be in trouble. And climate-exposed countries often have weak institutions, says Ms Diron. They struggle to plan for and respond to disasters.

Climate Crisis Could Trim 10.5 Percent of GDP in 80 Years, Says New Study - The climate crisis is getting costly. Some of the world's largest companies expect to take over one trillion in losses due to climate change. Insurers are increasingly jittery and the world's largest firm has warned that the cost of premiums may soon be unaffordable for most people. Historic flooding has wiped out farmers in the Midwest. Now, a new report, warns that the climate crisis will trigger massive global economic losses if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically curtailed within the next few decades, as the Washington Post reported. The working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that no country in the world will be spared from the effects of the climate crisis and not a single country will see an economic benefit from it. The study looked at 174 countries over 54 years and found that economic output is negatively effective by persistent changes. If global warming goes unchecked, the constant changes will reduce the world's gross domestic product (GDP) 7.2 percent by the year 2100. However, if the world were to adhere to the Paris climate agreement and keep temperatures from rising too much, the economic loss would be down to 1.07 percent by 2100. The worst-off nations will be tropical countries short on economic and medical resources. Industrialized nations will be hit hard if temperatures continue to rise at their current rate and are four degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial times by 2100, as they are predicted to be, the U.S. will lose 10.5 percent of its GDP. "What our study suggests is that climate change is costly for all countries under the business as usual scenario (no matter whether they are hot or cold, rich or poor), and the United States will be one of the countries that will suffer the most (reflecting sharp increases in U.S. average temperatures by 2100)," said study co-author Kamiar Mohaddes, an economist at the University of Cambridge in the UK, via email to the Washington Post.

Humans Are Making Excellent Progress - Dave Cohen -  Once in a while I check in to see how humans are progressing toward their own extinction. I did so yesterday, which was fortunate because we've gotten some climate data updates lately. Humans are making excellent progress in this regard. NOAA updated the global temperature record. July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth (since 1880), coming in at +1.71°F with respect to the 20th century average. But what caught my eye was this illuminating data point—  The year-to-date globally averaged land surface temperature was 2.63°F above the 20th century average of 46.8°F. This value was the third highest for January–July on record, behind 2016 (+3.20°F) and 2017 (+2.74°F).  OK, those are land surface temperatures, taking away the moderating influence of the oceans.  In centigrade terms, 2.63°F  = 1.46°C.  Got it? On land, we have nearly reached the dreaded 1.5°C mark. The "ambitious" goal of the Paris conference in late 2015 was to keep global temperatures below that mark. Global temperatures including the oceans were the same as July (+1.71°F).  Naturally this progress is reflected in CO2 emissions as well. We now have the IEA emissions data for 2018, as reported by Reuters:  Global energy-related carbon emissions rose to a record high last year as energy demand and coal use increased, mainly in Asia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. Well, OK! My continuing prediction is that humans will be extinct or "functionally" extinct 200 years from now. And achieving this state of Nirvana will be so easy—all humans have to do is just be themselves and that future extinction event will take care of itself!  What experience shows is that in the developed world climate change has become a political talking point for globalist elites, who wield this issue (among others) like a club to beat up working class people with. In short, climate change has become a class & status issue, as with just about everything else humans do.  Over the past 24 hours, you may have heard about Google Camp, a (formerly) top-secret event where some of the world's most influential people gathered in Sicily, Italy for a three-day private event to discuss important global issues. This year's topic was, naturally, climate change as we are in dire need of making concrete changes by 2030 before we are unable to repair irreversible catastrophic damages.  The problem? Celebrities and top global leaders—which reportedly included Katy Perry, Priyanka Chopra, Harry Styles, Leo DiCaprio, Prince Harry, and even former President Barack Obama—took yachts and private planes to get there, thus emitting an overwhelming amount of greenhouse gas into the air.  Attending "Google Camp" required 114 private jets to be exact. Elites use their alleged desire to address the climate problem to maintain their own power and status. These elites do indeed want reductions in consumption—by the working class.   The  "Yellow Vests" protests started in France when the globalist Macron raised fuel taxes, which mostly affected already-struggling working people. Macron's reason for doing this? Fighting climate change.  Raising fuel taxes in France does nothing at all to fix the climate. But it does have the elite "virtue" of beating down the working class.

“Kochland” Examines the Koch Brothers’ Early, Crucial Role in Climate-Change Denial - If there is any lingering uncertainty that the Koch brothers are the primary sponsors of climate-change doubt in the United States, it ought to be put to rest by the publication of “Kochland: The Secret History of Koch Industries and Corporate Power in America,” by the business reporter Christopher Leonard. This seven-hundred-and-four-page tome doesn’t break much new political ground, but it shows the extraordinary behind-the-scenes influence that Charles and David Koch have exerted to cripple government action on climate change. Leonard, who has written for Bloomberg Businessweek and the Wall Street Journal, devotes most of the book to an even-handed telling of how the two brothers from Wichita, Kansas, built up Koch Industries, a privately owned business so profitable that together they have amassed some hundred and twenty billion dollars, a fortune larger than that of Amazon’s C.E.O., Jeff Bezos, or the Microsoft founder Bill Gates. The project took Leonard more than six years to finish and it draws on hundreds of hours of interviews, including with Charles Koch, the C.E.O. and force without equal atop the sprawling corporate enterprise. (David Koch retired from the firm last year.)  “Kochland” adds new details about the ways in which the brothers have leveraged their fortune to capture American politics. Leonard shows that the Kochs’ political motives are both ideological, as hardcore free-market libertarians, and self-interested, serving their fossil-fuel-enriched bottom line. The Kochs’ secret sauce, as Leonard describes it, has been a penchant for long-term planning, patience, and flexibility; a relentless pursuit of profit; and the control that comes from owning some eighty per cent of their business empire themselves, without interference from stockholders or virtually anyone else.

Midwest Damage Control: "Screwed" Farmers Prompted Emergency Oval Office Meeting On Monday - President Trump is doing damage control relating to midwestern farm states that are critical to his re-election, according to Bloomberg. The president held a lengthy meeting in the oval office on Monday after facing criticism over the EPA's decision to give 31 refineries exemptions from biofuel blending requirements. Iowa's Senator Chuck Grassley said that Trump's administration had "screwed" farmers. During Monday’s meeting, Trump mulled the idea of rescinding some of these waivers, but was told that they may not be reversible. However, officials offered other ideas to mitigate political impact in states like Iowa, which was crucial to Trump's 2016 election.  Among the suggestions was one to expand environmental credits that encourage production of flex fuel vehicles that can run on high ethanol gasoline - and a requirement for government agencies to use more of them. This could increase the use of corn in fuels. The meeting on Monday was a microcosm of a larger clash over bio-fuel policy that pits farmers and oil against each other. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has been mostly divided, with the United States department of agriculture favoring farmers and the EPA insisting that day the law works in favor of refineries. The meeting on Monday had started as a trade deal meeting but quickly turned into a discussion about farmers after former Iowa governor Terry Branstad raised concerns about the harm he believed the waivers were doing to farmers.The meeting reportedly lasted two hours and included Branstad, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Censky, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and National Security Council official Matthew Pottinger, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. Administration officials discussed broad policy changes designed to mitigate the impact on both the farming and oil industries. It was even suggested at one point that the automobile industry be mandated to make all vehicles capable of running on a of variety of fuels, but the idea was quickly rebuffed.  Other options that were discussed included fuel policy changes designed to make 15% ethanol gasoline a nationwide standard, replacing the 10% that is now common.

Trump’s Rollback of Auto Pollution Rules Shows Signs of Disarray - The White House, blindsided by a pact between California and four automakers to oppose President Trump’s auto emissions rollbacks, has mounted an effort to prevent any more companies from joining California.Toyota, Fiat Chrysler and General Motors were all summoned by a senior Trump adviser to a White House meeting last month where he pressed them to stand by the president’s own initiative, according to four people familiar with the talks.But even as the White House was meeting with automakers, it was losing ground. Yet another company, Mercedes-Benz, is preparing to join the four automakers already in the California agreement — Honda, Ford, Volkswagen and BMW — according to two people familiar with the German company’s plans. Mr. Trump, described by three people as enraged by California’s deal, has demanded that his staff members step up the pace to complete his plan. His proposal, however, is directly at odds with the wishes of many automakers. They fear that the aggressive rollbacks will spark a legal battle between California and the federal government that could upend their business by splitting the United States into two car markets, one with stricter emissions standards than the other.The administration’s efforts to weaken the Obama-era pollution rules could be rendered irrelevant if too many automakers join California before the Trump plan can be put into effect. That could imperil one of Mr. Trump’s most far-reaching rollbacks of climate-change policies. The proposal would significantly weaken the 2012 vehicle pollution standards put in place by President Barack Obama, which remain the single largest policy enacted by the United States to reduce planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. The Obama-era rules require automakers to nearly double the average fuel economy of new cars and trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, cutting carbon dioxide pollution by about six billion tons over the lifetime of all the cars affected by the regulations, about the same amount the United States produces in a year.  In addition to Mercedes-Benz, a sixth prominent automaker — one of the three summoned last month to the White House — intends to disregard the Trump proposal and stick to the current, stricter federal emissions standards for at least the next four years, according to executives at the company.

Newsom calls Trump's effort to scuttle California's auto emission standards 'pathetic' - —  California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday accused President Trump of trying to scuttle California’s strict car emissions standards to help the oil industry, calling it a “pathetic” decision disguised as a way to assist automobile manufacturers. Newsom’s comments came less than a month after California state officials worked to circumvent the Trump administration’s efforts to relax tailpipe pollution regulations by reaching a deal with four major automakers to gradually strengthen fuel-efficiency standards.“This was a big blow to the Trump administration, what we were able to accomplish, and I don’t think they saw it coming,” Newsom told reporters at a conservation summit at Lake Tahoe with leaders from California and Nevada. “This idea that they’re helping the automobile manufacturers, that’s just been blown up, a complete myth. It was made up.”The New York Times reported that a fter the announcement of the deal, a T rump advisor called officials from Toyota, Fiat Chrysler and General Motors to the White House to urge them to support the president’s emissions policy. Newsom criticized the president for trying to impose his will on private industry, saying it was a strong-arm tactic expected in “crackpot, Third World countries” and not the United States.“This is pathetic and it shows the weakness of the administration,” Newsom said. “No one wants [Trump’s mileage policy] except the oil companies. And what a sad, pathetic state of affairs that they’re the ones calling the shots.” A White House official said the president’s policy will save Americans money and make vehicles safer, adding that the White House attempted to work with California leaders when crafting a new policy, but that the state did not attempt to negotiate in good faith.

California Proposes $100M in Energy Storage Incentives to Boost Wildfire Resiliency - California regulators want to direct $100 million in state energy storage incentives to a new class of disadvantaged customers: those living in parts of the state at the highest risk of deadly wildfires. The California Public Utilities Commission issued a proposed decision last week on the “equity budget” within the Self-Generation Incentive Program, the state’s main incentive program for behind-the-meter batteries. The proposed decision would direct $100 million from SGIP’s equity budget — a set-aside aimed at low-income, medically compromised or otherwise disadvantaged residents — to vulnerable households, critical services facilities, and low-income solar program customers in Tier 3 high-fire-threat districts. These types of customers are far more likely to find value in multihour batteries attached to their rooftop solar system than the typical low-income or elderly California resident who would qualify for the equity budget. That, along with the potential to supply critical infrastructure with solar-storage systems, is likely to make for an attractive target market for solar and energy storage developers like Sunrun and Tesla. The proposed decision could be voted on by the CPUC as early as next month. Last year, California’s legislature extended the SGIP for five more years and provided about $830 million in total funding. SGIP’s equity budget offers higher incentives than the mainstream program for behind-the-meter battery installations, from 35 cents to up to 50 cents per watt-hour. While the new proposal would only cover next year’s SGIP budget at present, the CPUC plans to consider collecting up to $100 million annually to keep the program going.

It’s Official: Parts of California Are Too Wildfire-Prone To Insure - California is facing yet another real estate-related crisis, but we’re not talking about its sky-high home prices. According to newly released data, it’s simply become too risky to insure houses in big swaths of the wildfire-prone state.Last winter when we wrote about home insurance rates possibly going up in the wake of California’s massive, deadly fires, the insurance industry representatives we interviewed were skeptical. They noted that the stories circulating in the media about people in forested areas losing their homeowners’ insurance was based on anecdotes, not data. But now, the data is in and it’s really happening: Insurance companies aren’t renewing policies areas climate scientists say are likely to burn in giant wildfires in coming years.Between 2015 and 2018, the 10 California counties with the most homes in flammable forests saw a 177 percent increase in homeowners turning to an expensive state-backed insurance program because they could not find private insurance.In some ways, this news is not surprising. According to a recent survey of insurance actuaries (the people who calculate insurance risks and premiums based on available data), the industry ranked climate change as the top risk for 2019, beating out concerns over cyber damages, financial instability, and terrorism. While having insurance companies on board with climate science is a good thing for, say, requiring cities to invest in more sustainable infrastructure, it’s bad news for homeowners who can’t simply pick up their lodgings and move elsewhere. “We are seeing an increasing trend across California where people at risk of wildfires are being non-renewed by their insurer,” said California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara in astatement. “This data should be a wake-up call for state and local policymakers that without action to reduce the risk from extreme wildfires and preserve the insurance market we could see communities unraveling.” A similar dynamic is likely unfolding across many other Western states, according to reporting from the New York Times.

Chopping down and burning our forests for electricity is not a climate solution - Addressing the climate crisis has finally become a major national priority for the public this election season, but that’s also prompted troubling discussions in the energy sector and on Capitol Hill about increasing the use of biomass energy, or burning plant materials like wood, to produce electricity. We need to set the record straight on this: chopping down our forests and burning them for electricity will not reduce carbon pollution and will actually exacerbate the climate crisis. The best course of action is to dramatically build out our clean energy resources, like solar, wind, and energy efficiency, and retire all biomass and fossil fuel plants. Period. Forests should never be used to serve our electricity needs, they are too valuable as “carbon sinks” - sucking carbon out of the atmosphere as opposed to putting carbon into it. Additionally, biomass energy inevitably leads to deforestation. For example, the EU’s use of biomass in place of coal is already accelerating logging in wetlands and coastal hardwood forests across the Southeastern U.S. After being ripped out of these historic forests, trees designated for biomass are reduced to wood pellets and shipped to power plants where they are burned, releasing large amounts of carbon pollution in the process.  The reality is that utility companies and the biomass industry are attempting to paint burning trees as “renewable, green, climate friendly energy” so that they and their allies can exploit government subsidies and continue raking in big profits at the expense of public health and technologies that are actually sustainable. The biomass industry’s argument depends on claims that the forests they cut grow back, thereby reabsorbing any carbon that was emitted. But, this is not the case. The truth is that when forests are clear-cut and the trees burned for fuel, carbon that was otherwise stored in the forest is emitted to the atmosphere. It can take a forest anywhere from 40 to 100 years of regrowth to reabsorb that same amount of carbon, and the science shows that our climate can’t wait that long. To have any chance of avoiding catastrophic climate impacts, we must reduce emissions rapidly over the next decade and start restoring degraded forests across the world, including here in the U.S. In addition to forest destruction, biomass plants pollute at levels comparable to their fossil fuel counterparts, emitting more nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and carbon monoxide than similarly-sized coal plants. Despite these facts, the expansion in the use of biomass fuel is increasing, largely unabated, causing a proliferation in the construction of wood pellet mills. Enviva, the world’s largest wood pellet manufacturer, has already constructed eight wood pellet mills in the Southern U.S., with plans to build another thirteen, which are facing significant opposition. Each one of these mills can consume from 35 to 50 acres of forests a day.

Fossil fuel drilling could be contributing to climate change by heating Earth from within - Almost all scientists agree that burning fossil fuels is contributing to climate change. But agreement is less clear cut on how exactly it's influencing rising global temperatures.The world is now 1°C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times. Is this solely down to emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO₂? Meteorologist Hubert Lamb, regarded as the father of modern climatology, argued that CO₂ levels alone couldn't account for all of the global warming that's been observed.His attention turned instead to the role of thermal emissions. Burning fossil fuels doesn't just producegreenhouse gases, it also generates a lot of heat, which leaks out to the atmosphere. Nuclear tests and volcanic eruptions are some examples of other large heat sources.Back in 2009, two scientists in Sweden argued that thermal emissions were more important than CO₂ for raising global temperatures. A few years later, two Chinese scientists suggested that heat from the earth's interior could be contributing to rising temperatures. They argued that fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas in layers and crevices beneath the Earth's surface act as an insulating blanket, trapping heat from the planet's interior. As these deposits have been emptied by fossilfuel extraction, more of that heat could be reaching the surface. This idea is similar to how fat tissue under the skinprevents body heat from being lost to the surrounding air. To investigate this theory in the Earth's crust, we looked at the figures for global fossil fuel production alongside data for temperature changes on the land and sea surface. Our research suggests that it is possible that temperatures may be rising faster in places where fossil fuels are being extracted from the ground.

One Word—Plastics: Why the World Will be Slow to Abandon Natural Gas -  Petrochemicals are the 800-pound gorilla that many fail to account for in their climate defense plans. Termed a blind spot of the global energy system by the International Energy Agency (IEA) petrochemicals are a driving force behind the increasing demand for fossil fuels. Petrochemicals also appear to be one of the driving forces behind Trump’s re-election campaign. In the coming weeks and months, Appalachia coal regions and portions of the Rust Belt will become ground zero in the environmental battle between Trump and contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination and, ultimately, for the presidency. In the end, will it all come down to one word–PLASTICS? Whether he is willing to admit it or not, Donald John Trump surely understands that coal will never return to market prominence in the power sector—absent some miraculous breakthroughs in combustion and carbon capture technologies. Technologies the Trump administration has shown little interest in developing. Although Trump accuses Democrats of having launched a war on coal, the real culprits in terms of coal’s declining demand are market forces, e.g., the price of alternatives, about which even coal-state Republicans have shown little genuine interest in overriding. Having promised renewed prosperity to coal country conservatives, Trump is now on the hook to deliver. These are, after all, his peeps.There is substantial pressure building on Trump to deliver not only for his coal country constituents but his core supporters throughout rural America. Much of the pressure he is feeling today is self-inflicted being the natural consequence of his failings to bend power markets to his will or win the trade war he started with China. Trump’s winning margins in the 2016 elections were too thin for him to rest comfortably on the backs of his largely aging white supporters.It appears Trump intends to swap a long-dying Appalachian coal sector for a vibrant petrochemical industry that is beginning to build along a 386-mile corridor that follows the Ohio River and touches five states—Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky. (Figure 1) Feeding the industry are the proximate and plentiful gas supplies of the Marcellus and Utica fields. Anchoring the proposed Appalachian Storage Hub is Shell’s soon-to-be-completed cracker plant in Monaca, Pennsylvania. A construction project, begun in 2012 during the Obama administration, for which Trump is now taking the credit.

Power Grid Chaos Jolts Texas On Friday, Energy Costs Triple Amid Heat Wave - The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has been asking customers to conserve energy this week as spot power prices in Texas tripled to a record on Friday.  The state's power grid operator that serves most of Texas declared an energy conservation emergency for the second time this week, the first on Tuesday when temperatures exceeded 100 degrees, and customers cranked up their air conditioners to escape the heat.  ERCOT asked customers this week to reduce energy use between 3 and 7 p.m. From Aug. 7-15, Texas dealt with 100-degree weather, with real feel around 110-degrees in some parts. For the second half of the month, temperatures in much of the state could average in the mid-90s. Refinitiv data shows next-day power prices at the ERCOT North hub jumped from $265 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Thursday to $751 MWh by Friday morning, the highest-paid per MWh in almost a decade.Real-time prices soared to ERCOT's $9,000/MWh offer cap for several 15-minute intervals for a second time this week, said Reuters. Refinitiv data said it was the fourth time prices hit that cap after January 2018, May 30 and Aug. 13. And with the heat wave expected to strain the grid even more over the weekend, ERCOT projected demand would climb to over 73,200 MW on Friday and 74,000 MW on Saturday. One MW can power 1,000 U.S. homes on average, but as few as 200 during peak demand periods. ERCOT has 78,000 MW of generating capacity to meet demand over the weekend. The jump in energy costs shows just how unpredictable the Texas power market has become as coal-fired generators are retired for cheaper natural gas and renewable energy sources.

State OKs closure of one of Duke's fly ash ponds -One coal fly ash pond at Duke Energy’s former Wabash River Generating Station has been approved for closure and post-closure plans. The Indiana Department of Environmental Management on Aug. 16 approved the closing plan for the South Ash Pond, closing 72.9 acres by leaving coal combustion residuals in place. However, IDEM continues to evaluate the closure of the approximately 80-acre Ash Pond A and a 7.8-acre secondary settling pond. IDEM indicates that upon closure, these ponds will be closed by removal of coal fly ash. IDEM will also separately review closure of the North Ash Pond. In March, mandatory federal groundwater testing found the ponds have contaminants at levels higher than groundwater protection standards. The electric power company on March 1 released its compliance data and reporting on the coal ash ponds at the now shuttered Wabash River Generating Station. The figures show the ash ponds have high levels of arsenic, cobalt and lead. Coal ash, also known as fly ash, is the waste produced from burning coal and can contain harmful toxins. The samples were taken from 37 monitoring wells placed at the base of the coal ponds, which are not drinking water wells. The Duke Energy South Ash Pond system is part of the former Wabash River Generating Station at 450 Bolton Road in West Terre Haute. The South Ash Pond, constructed with a synthetic liner at its base, closure plan includes placing a geosythetic liner over the fly ash and place a minimum of five feet of fill to form a working platform for the construction of a final cover system, which includes 12 inches of uncompacted soil, 18 inches of uncompacted cohesive soil and 6 inches of vegetative soil.

Coal ash case: Federal court shoots down Jacobs Engineering appeal --Come back if you lose.That is the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ message to Tennessee Valley Authority contractor Jacobs Engineering in an opinion made public this week.Jacobs is accused in lawsuits in U.S. District Court of failing to protect hundreds of workers who cleaned up a 2008 coal ash spill — the nation’s largest — at TVA’s Kingston coal-fired power plant from exposure to the toxins, heavy metals and radioactive material that are in the coal ash.The workers and their families behind the lawsuits say the coal ash is responsible for the deaths of 41 of those workers and the sickening of 400 more, according to an ongoing tally from court records by the Knoxville News Sentinel.A jury in one of the lawsuits ruled in November that Jacobs breached its $64 million TVA cleanup contract and its duty to protect those workers. The verdict paves the way for another series of trials that could span years to determine whether the health problems were specifically caused by exposure to toxic coal ash, the byproduct of burning coal to make electricity. U.S. District Judge Tom Varlan ordered Jacobs to try to negotiate a settlement, noting many of the workers lack adequate health care. Jacobs attacked the jury’s verdict and Varlan’s verdict form as legally flawed and asked the 6th Circuit to hold a hearing on its complaints with both.

‘The answer is, get started’: Duke Energy coal ash conflict continues - In an ongoing legal battle over coal ash basin clean-up between Duke Energy and the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality, parts of the energy company’s appeals have been rejected, shifting focus on how the sites will be handled. On Aug. 2, the judge presiding over the energy company’s appeal of the DEQ’s coal ash closure decisions issued an order in favor of the DEQ. The new ruling reaffirmed the DEQ’s authority to select the proper closure methods for nine of the 31 coal ash basins.The case will now focus on whether excavation is the proper closure method for the basins. State and federal law points to capping in place and excavating to a lined landfill as the two primary methods to close a coal ash basin. Citing the Coal Ash Management Act, which was designed to close the coal ash basins in a timely fashion, the DEQ ordered Duke Energy to close the remaining nine coal ash basins by excavation in April. Paige Sheehan, a spokesperson for Duke Energy, argued the state has chosen the most extreme, costly and time-consuming closure method for the lowest-risk basins. But Duke Energy faces opposition from communities close to these sites. Environmental groups like the Southern Environmental Law Center represent communities trying to protect the water around the sites. Nick Torrey, an attorney with the SELC, said Duke Energy has had problems with coal ash, including dam failures and spills like the 2014 Dan River spill. He said these spills highlight the importance of recycling or quickly moving coal ash into lined landfill storage. Torrey said the Dan River spill sparked new coal ash legislation that would require Duke Energy to submit reports documenting structural problems, contamination and leaks for the past five years on the coal ash sites. Torrey said the SELC approves of the state’s decision that the remaining coal ash sites in North Carolina be cleaned up, but now the case will shift to how that clean-up should happen.

Spouses, supporters of coal ash cleanup workers want TVA to fire contractor, provide health insurance - — Nearly 11 years after America's worst coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee, the Tennessee Valley Authority is still having to deal with the legacy of the disaster and those who cleaned it up. With dozens of supporters standing behind them, spouses and other supporters of former contract workers who claim they were injured cleaning up the spill appealed to the TVA board Wednesday to do more to aid the hundreds of workers who removed more than 1.1 billion gallons of coal fly ash that spilled into the Emory and Clinch River from a broken TVA dike at TVA's Kingston Fossil Plant in 2008. "Every worker is hurting from this ash spill," said Betty Johnson, whose husband was employed by Jacobs Engineering Group which TVA hired nearly a decade ago to clean up to Kingston spill. "My husband had dreams of playing golf and fishing in retirement, and now he is afraid to go more than a mile because he can barely get his breath and he suffers regularly from pain and rashes on his body." Johnson and two other spouses of other Jacobs employees who claim they were injured from the coal ash cleanup urged TVA to provide them health insurance and to quit using Jacobs for contract work. Last November, a jury ruled that Jacobs had failed to take proper health precautions and misled workers about the health risks associated with exposure to coal fly ash. The plaintiffs alleged that exposure to the coal ash caused a variety of health issues and illnesses, including in some cases death. Jacobs and the employees suing the company are now engaged in mediation for a monetary settlement. TVA is not a party to that lawsuit, although it may have to indemnify Jacobs for some of any damages it ultimately pays the former workers suing the company.

TVA board offers 'heartfelt sympathy' but no medical help for Kingston coal ash workers - A decade ago, Tommy Johnson would spend 10 hours cleaning up the Tennessee Valley Authority’s coal ash and walk four miles when he got home. On Wednesday, he walked with a cane and struggled — his wife helped bear his weight — to climb the steps to TVA’s downtown Knoxville headquarters. A decade ago, TVA told his wife, Betty Johnson, that her husband and his fellow workers would be kept safe while they cleaned up 7.3 million tons of coal ash that spilled from an unlined pit at the utility’s Kingston coal-fired power plant in Roane County. On Wednesday, she told TVA’s board of directors her husband's illness was caused by exposure to toxic coal ash, and she asked them to do something about it. “He had perfect health,” Johnson said. “Now he walks with a cane. … He could barely catch his breath. Every worker is hurting from the ash spill. … They’re hurting. Their families are hurting. We’re not asking you for the world. We only want (health) insurance. … I am asking you to show compassion for every worker.” Johnson's husband is one of more than 400 Kingston disaster workers who are chronically sick or dying, according to a tally from court records by the Knoxville News Sentinel. An additional 41 are dead, according to the tally. TVA’s nine-member board offered sympathy Wednesday, but nothing else. “I want to express our heartfelt sympathy for those who are ill,” said TVA Board Chairman James “Skip” Thompson. “The legal process is ongoing and we must respect the legality of that process.”

Mines That Change Owners Have Worse Safety Record, Audit Finds - A new federal government report shows that mines that changed ownership had worse safety records than mines where ownership did not change. According to anaudit from the Department of Labor’s Office of the Inspector General, mines that changed ownership during a 17-year period were nearly twice as likely to have safety violations, and five times as likely to report severe accidents in the same period. Mines that changed hands had on average 134 safety violations, compared with 43 safety violations at mines that did not change hands. That could have implications for the Ohio Valley, where a spate of coal bankruptcieshas industry watchers worried about continued turmoil for coal producers and more turnover of mine ownership. The audit comes after investigations from the Ohio Valley ReSource and NPR into unpaid debts for mine safety violations by coal mine operators, notably the companies belonging to West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s family. The Justice group’s mines owed more than $4 million in delinquent mine safety fines, and in May the Department of Justice filed a civil suit to recover those debts.  According to an analysis of mine safety data by the ReSource, injury rates for miners working in delinquent underground coal mines are 31 percent higher than rates at mines that are not currently delinquent.

Government Audit Says Fines Don't Deter Unsafe Mining : NPR - An audit of the federal system that fines mining companies for unsafe conditions found no evidence that more than $1 billion in mine safety penalties over 18 years deterred unsafe mining practices. The four-year long audit from the Office of Inspector General of the Labor Department says its analysis of Mine Safety and Health Administration accident and violations data "showed no correlation between penalties paid and the safety of mine operations." The audit was prompted by a 2014 NPR investigation of thousands of mines and mining companies that did find such a connection. Specifically, NPR found that mines that persistently ignored their penalties had injury rates 50 percent higher than mines that paid their fines. In total, NPR examined the safety records of mines that had failed to pay nearly $70 million in penalties, some with delinquent fines that were decades old. The auditors instead reported data for mining companies, not individual mines, and in a statement to NPR acknowledged taking a different approach with their review. "We focused on mine operators as they are responsible for the safety of miners and are assigned the financial responsibility for penalties," the OIG's statement explained. The office did not respond to specific questions NPR submitted and declined a request for an interview. The audit doesn't say whether the measures of safety and violations applied only after mines or mining companies failed to pay safety fines or while they continued to be delinquent. NPR's analysis of delinquent fines and safety applied only to mines while they were delinquent.

Retired miners say Justice coal companies owe unpaid benefits – Four retired miners and their union say coal companies owned by Gov. Jim Justice owe them unpaid medical benefits. James E. Graham II, Dennis Adkins, Roger Wriston, David B. Polk and the United Mine Workers of America International Union filed the lawsuit Aug. 15 in U.S. District Court. Justice Energy Co., Keystone Service Industries Inc., Bluestone Coal Corporation, Double-Bonus Coal Co. and Southern Coal Corporation are listed as defendants. In the 16-page complaint, the plaintiffs say the companies have failed to pay health and prescription costs as promised under a national agreement. They claim the companies have violated the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA).  The union says these claims haven’t been paid since 2017 when Justice took office as governor. It also says the companies, without advance warning, canceled retiree medical and drug coverage effective July 1 of this year. But, it says partial coverage was restored the following day. They claim similar periodic cancellations and restorations have occurred before. The complaint lists the specific medical situations faced by each of the four individual plaintiffs.

Climate Activists Dump Coal 'Removed' from Bow Power Plant On State House Steps - – Climate activists “removed” about 500 pounds of coal from the Merrimack Generating Station in Bow on Saturday afternoon with no one noticing and dumped some of the 16 buckets on the State House steps on Tuesday to protest the continued burning of coal. Tuesday kicked off the campaign to close the plant, which activists with the Climate Disobedience Center say is the largest coal-fired power plant in New England without a shutdown date. They called it “a principled action to remove coal” from the plant eschewing words such as stealing and trespassing and said so far there have been no repercussions. Activists dump some of the coal they took from the Merrimack Generating Station in Bow over the weekend, dumped it in front of the State House Tuesday and left it there for lawmakers. nocoalnogas.org photo Emma Schoenberg of the Climate Disobedience Center, said she and other activists walked on to the plant property on Saturday afternoon without permission and walked away with about 16 buckets of coal. “We do not have the time to keep burning this planet,” Schoenberg said as the group prepared to dump some of the coal at the State House. There were few onlookers as U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster, D-NH, was holding a news conference on health care and the ramifications of a Texas lawsuit that could dismantle the Affordable Care Act, also in front of the State House on North Main Street, at the same time. “The fossil fuel industry and the coal industry continue to fuel the flames of what is happening on our planet,” Schoenberg continued. “It’s time to do what we need to do to take it into our own hands. Even if we have to remove the coal bucket by bucket, we are going to remove the fuel from the fire.”

America’s mega-emitters are starting to close - When the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona shuts down later this year, it will be one of the largest carbon emitters to ever close in American history.The giant coal plant on Arizona's high desert emitted almost 135 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2010 and 2017, according to an E&E News review of federal figures.Its average annual emissions over that period are roughly equivalent to what 3.3 million passenger cars would pump into the atmosphere in a single year. Of all the coal plants to be retired in the United States in recent years, none has emitted more. The Navajo Generating Station isn't alone. It's among a new wave of super-polluters headed for the scrap heap. Bruce Mansfield, a massive coal plant in Pennsylvania, emitted nearly 123 million tons between 2010 and 2017. It, too, will be retired by year's end (Energywire, Aug. 12). And in western Kentucky, the Paradise plant emitted some 102 million tons of carbon over that period. The Tennessee Valley Authority closed two of Paradise's three units in 2017. It will close the last one next year (Greenwire, Feb. 14). "It's just the economics keep moving in a direction that favors natural gas and renewables." Coal plant closures have been a feature of U.S. power markets for the better part of a decade, as stagnant demand, low natural gas prices and increasing competition from renewables have battered the coal fleet. In previous years, most retirements were made up of smaller and lesser-used units (Climatewire, April 27, 2017). That means the emissions reductions were less substantial. In 2015, the United States closed 15 gigawatts of coal capacity, or roughly 5% of the coal fleet. That still stands as a record amount of coal capacity retired in one year. Yet the emissions reductions were modest by today's standards. The units retired in 2015 emitted a combined 261 million tons in the six years prior to their retirement, according to an E&E News review of EPA emissions data. On average, they annually emitted about 43 million tons over that period. Contrast that to 2018, when almost 14 GW of coal was retired. Those units emitted 511 million tons of carbon between 2010 and 2015. Their combined average annual emissions rate was 83 million tons. The trend figures to be even more dramatic this year.

Bankrupt Cloud Peak finds new owner for its Wyoming mines - Another coal giant is on track to sunset in the Powder River Basin.Bankrupt operator Cloud Peak Energy selected Navajo Transitional Energy Company as the successful bidder to assume ownership of its three coal mines in the basin, according to a statement released Friday night.The deal includes a $15.7 million immediate cash payment, a $40 million second lien promissory note and payment of royalties for coal produced over the next five years. Navajo will also take over Wyoming’s Cordero Rojo and Antelope mines — in addition to its Spring Creek mine in Montana.Those mines shipped a combined 50 million tons of coal last year.Insolvent coal companies unable to repay ballooning debts can auction off their assets after filing for bankruptcy, often bestowing new ownership to mines in an effort to keep up coal production. Cloud Peak has continued to operate its mines throughout bankruptcy proceedings.

America's Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Set To Finally Close Its Doors -  Few people know that sitting across from the reactor that suffered a partial meltdown on Three Mile Island in 1979 - is another unit that still remains one of the region's largest power sources. In fact, the second unit has provided power for 45 years without incident. Now, according to Bloomberg, that unit is finally slated to shut down.  Plant owner Exelon says that it will shutter the entire Three Mile Island facility 15 years before its license expires. While the first reactor was brought down by human error, the second is being brought down by the economics of the utility industry. The original meltdown that occurred in 1979 was a result of steam generators that were unable to draw heat out of a reactor and a stuck valve that let coolant escape from the reactor core.   Compared to Chernobyl, which resulted in 4,000 deaths, Three Mile Island is considered minor. It was determined that about 2 million people in the surrounding area "were exposed to less radiation than they would have received from a chest X-ray." But naturally, the immediate reaction to the event was fear and confusion. Schools closed, people stayed indoors and officials told children and pregnant women to evacuate the area. Public support for nuclear power predictably waned after the incident.  The U.S. is now the world's largest producer of natural gas, thanks to the "shale revolution". This has caused a glut of the fossil fuel, dragging down its price and making it the largest source of the country's electricity. Wind and solar have also been contributing to the nation's energy glut. As a result, seven U.S. nuclear plants have shut down since 2013, with additional plants slated to close, despite states like New York and Pennsylvania offering subsidies for nuclear power. Nuclear remains at the middle of debate in the U.S., with President Trump taking steps to support unprofitable nuclear and coal plants, citing national securities issues. Federal energy regulators have rejected some of his efforts. Also predictably, environmental groups are divided on the issue: some have expressed concerns about treatment of nuclear waste and the potential for future mishaps, while others note that nuclear is much cleaner than burning fossil fuels.

Dozen-year nuclear cleanup completed at Knolls - AECOM said Monday it has completed the decontamination and demolition of a facility at Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory that was used in the early 1950s to separate plutonium and uranium from irradiated materials. The two elements were then used in nuclear power plants and and nuclear weapons. "The completion of the cleanup is a major accomplishment that not only reduces the environmental risk to the community and the State of New York, but also aids our (Department of Energy) client in accelerating the momentum of its Environmental Management mission," said John Vollmer, AECOM's president of its management services group. The Separations Process Research Unit at Knolls was used to conduct research on plutonium extraction. The cleanup involved two contaminated buildings and 30 acres of the 170-acre Knolls site. The unit was built in the late 1940s and operated until about 1953. The U.S. Department of Energy has applied, apparently to extend a permit, from the state Department of Environmental Conservation to temporarily store on site some of the radioactive waste that was removed during the cleanup.

"God Of Chaos" Asteroid Will Get Closer Than Orbiting Satellites In 2029, Researchers Warn Impact Would Be "Devastating For All Life" -It may be 10 years away, but NASA is already preparing for the arrival of what is being called the "God of Chaos" asteroid, which is slated to skim past the earth in 10 years, according to Express. The asteroid has been named 99942 Apophis. The asteroid is gargantuan, measuring 340 meters across, and will come within 19,000 miles of the earth's surface. It’s one of the largest asteroids to ever pass so close to the earth and a collision with it could be "devastating for all life on earth". No word on whether or not it'll wipe out all student debt, however.  The asteroid will even get closer to the earth than most communication and weather satellites that are currently in orbit. These satellites are about 22,236 miles from earth.  Meanwhile, the asteroid is traveling at about 25,000 mph, meaning that if it were to be slightly jarred off of its course, it could be a catastrophe for the earth. The asteroid's size and its proximity to the earth have resulted in it being categorized as a "Potentially Hazardous Asteroid" (PHA). NASA scientists are aware that the asteroid's trajectory could change between now and 2029, raising potential fears of a collision.  Should it not collide with earth, it’s expected to shine "exceptionally bright" and pick up speed as it passes our planet. It’s moving so fast that it will cross the width of the moon in a minute and will be as brightly lit as the stars.  Some researchers say that the rock is not a concern, however, and that there is just a 1 in 100,000 chance that it strikes the earth. Regardless, NASA has started studying it as it flies past our planet and has insisted it would be a great opportunity to learn about similar asteroids. Astronomer Davide Farnocchia added: "We already know that the close encounter with Earth will change Apophis’ orbit. But our models also show the close approach could change the way this asteroid spins and it is possible that there will be some surfaces changes, like small avalanches.”

Settlement hearing moves Lake Erie wind project closer to approval -  Two suburban Clevelanders were the lone critics Tuesday of a proposed settlement to allow a Lake Erie offshore wind project to move forward. Susan Dempsey and Robert Maloney of Bratenahl were represented by John Stock, who has also represented Murray Energy in other proceedings. The coal companyhas paid expert witness fees in the case, documents show.The hearing was the first opportunity for testimony on a May 2019 settlement between the Ohio Power Siting Board and the Lake Erie Energy Development Corporation, or LEEDCo. The agreement, among other things, includes extra monitoring for birds, bats and aquatic life before construction.Stock during cross-examination challenged the ability of Ohio Department of Natural Resources staff to determine wildlife protections in the case. Stock’s firm also prefiled expert testimony of Jeffrey Gosse, a former U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service employee. He objected that the stipulation didn’t spell out all details for radar technology under the agreed-to monitoring plan.Stock did not respond to a request for comment for this article.Neither the state nor LEEDCo called for cross-examination of Stock’s expert witness. Ohio Power Siting Board staff has indicated it is satisfied that the settlement meets requirements for approval by the board. Staff member Stuart Siegfried said the settlement is the product of serious bargaining among capable, knowledgeable parties, and that, as a package, it benefits customers and the public interest. Beyond that, it does not violate any important regulatory principle or practice, his prefiled testimony said. The one-day hearing this week puts the Great Lakes’ first offshore wind project one step closer to its last major permit approval.

NASA analysis sheds light on Cleveland area’s rooftop solar potential - Widespread deployment of rooftop solar in a 5.4-square-mile section of Cleveland could produce enough electricity to power approximately 10,000 homes, according to a new analysis by NASA researchers.The study, which used aerial images to calculate rooftop solar capacity, found the potential for more than 100,000 megawatt hours of generation per year — 85% of which could be generated on a fifth of the buildings.The findings could help inform the city’s strategy as it aims to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050. Local leaders expressed interest in using NASA’s methods to assess solar potential across the entire county.“It’s encouraging that we have that much potential in just our study area,” said Hannah Besso, project lead with NASA’s DEVELOP program.Besso’s team selected the Northeast Ohio test area because it includes both residential and industrial buildings, as well as some buildings in Cleveland’s downtown area.Almost two-thirds of the 560 buildings with the largest solar energy potential fell into the industrial and commercial categories. Institutional buildings made up roughly another fifth. Those types of buildings tend to have more surface area for solar panels, Besso said.At the same time, the analysis doesn’t detract from the importance of solar energy for smaller residential buildings. “For a private homeowner, it’s still beneficial and important to reduce your individual energy bill,” Besso said. Also, “a lot of the smaller residential homes actually could produce more potential solar energy per square foot,” Besso said. That’s because roofs on many residential buildings are more sloped than those on commercial or industrial buildings.

FirstEnergy Solutions hearing continues; judge to decide if company can emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy - A federal court hearing that could result in FirstEnergy Solutions emerging from bankruptcy is expected to wrap up late Wednesday. Tuesday, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Alan M. Koschik in Akron held the first day of the confirmation hearing. The hearing is to confirm whether FirstEnergy Solutions, the unregulated generation arm of Akron-based electric utility FirstEnergy Corp., has met all required bankruptcy code elements. If Koschik grants his approval following the hearing, First Energy Solutions will emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings as an independent company that would likely change its name before the end of the year. FirstEnergy Solutions is the owner of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant and the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station, among other power generation facilities in Ohio. Signs point toward confirmation. A majority of creditors earlier this month approved the reorganization plan, with the results ratified Aug. 12, according to court filings. It is unclear how soon after the hearing Koschik will issue his ruling. The First Energy Solutions bankruptcy and upcoming spinoff are part of FirstEnergy Corp.’s plan to return to being a fully regulated electric utility. First Energy Solutions intends to keep its headquarters in Akron once it exits from bankruptcy, its senior executives have previously said.

FirstEnergy Solutions' bankruptcy plan hits snag as judge presses utility to resolve union contracts The federal bankruptcy judge overseeing the FirstEnergy Solutions (FES) reorganization has held up the case until the company can reach an equitable agreement with the labor unions representing workers at its nuclear power plants. "If this issue had been resolved I would have been prepared to confirm the [reorganization] plan," Judge Alan Koschik told lawyers for the company late Wednesday afternoon at the conclusion of two days of hearings covering remaining issues in the case. "I expect I will be confirming the plan," he added, "but I cannot do it until this issue is resolved." FES wants to emerge from bankruptcy free of union contracts and then negotiate new, slimmer agreements that, for example, would do away with the pension plans for long-time employees. The unions have countered current contracts contain negotiated "succession" language requiring that any new owner accept the contracts as they are — exactly what FES wanted to avoid, though when it sold off other power plants it insisted the labor contracts were included. These issues have stymied bargaining for months and now have become the major obstacle in the bankruptcy case itself. The company maintains that the benefits in the current contract were negotiated by parent company FirstEnergy Corp. and it therefore will not, or cannot, continue to offer them as a new company. Joyce Goldstein, a Cleveland labor lawyer representing union locals at the Perry nuclear plant in Ohio and the Beaver Valley plant in Pennsylvania, suggested the contract could be amended to change the name of the company if that were the only issue. But it's not. FES has filed testimony saying it would not be able to afford the kind of benefits FirstEnergy had granted in the contracts, particularly pension benefits. Company witnesses on Tuesday had told the judge they expected FES to emerge from bankruptcy with $1.1 billion in cash that could quickly grow to $1.5 billion, Goldstein said in her Wednesday presentation in court. On top of that projected cash on hand, the passage of House Bill 6 in the Ohio legislature last month will give FES about $150 million annually for seven years, beginning in 2021, to subsidize its two Ohio nuclear power plants. But that subsidy could wind up on the Ohio ballot in November 2020.

Developer scrubs plans for 3rd power plant after nuke bailout - Clean Energy Future is canceling plans to build a third gas-fired power plant in Lordstown, the company announced Tuesday.  “This decision is based on the July 2019 passage” by the Ohio General Assembly of House Bill 6, Bill Siderewicz, president of CEF, said in a news release.The third plant would have cost $1.1 billion, Siderewicz said. Clean Energy Future has already spent more than $1 million in development and permitting costs.No third plant means the loss of 1,100 new local union construction jobs, 2.6 million man hours of union construction labor over 34 months, and $150 million in water purchases from Youngstown, Siderewicz said.He said a third plant would have produced additional full-time jobs and local supplies and services. It would have generated $300 million in local property, salary and income taxes.Over its 50-year life, it would have produced $29 billion of economic benefit, Siderewicz said. It was supposed to begin construction in 2020. Siderewicz provided The Vindicator with a June 11, 2019, letter from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency addressed to him confirming that it had received Siderewicz’s application for a permit to operate a gas-fired plant called the “Meander Energy Center,” which would be an air-pollution source.  State Rep. Gil Blair, D-63rd of Mineral Ridge, who was the first person to make public remarks about the possible third power plant about a month ago, said Siderewicz’s announcement is “certainly not good news, but it also represents the reason I voted no on Senate Bill 6.” The first Clean Energy Future plant in Lordstown, known as the Lordstown Energy Center, is in operation in Lordstown Industrial Park on Henn Parkway off state Route 45. The second plant, to be known as the Trumbull Energy Center, is scheduled for construction to begin this December next door, Siderewicz told The Vindicator. State Sen. Sean O’Brien, D-32nd of Bazetta said Siderewicz testified during the debate over House Bill 6 and said at that time the bill could eliminate a power plant in Lordstown.

HB6 fallout: $1.5 billion in natural gas-power plant investments pulled from Ohio - When state legislators debated this year whether to bail out Ohio’s two nuclear power plants, some opponents warned that the subsidies would upset Ohio’s blossoming oil and natural gas industry.That is starting to happen. Clean Energy Future said this week that it is terminating plans to add a $1.1 billion natural-gas-fired power plant to its operations in Lordstown, in northeast Ohio, because of House Bill 6.  Before the vote to approve the bill in July, another company, LS Power, said it would cancel its $500 million plan to expand its natural-gas-fired power plant in Luckey, in northwest Ohio near Toledo. The company did not respond to requests for comment Friday. “Political tampering with Ohio’s free electricity-generation markets has very real impacts and results, as we see happening now,” said William Siderewicz, president of Clean Energy Future. “Power plants, pipelines — without those demand outlets coming online, there isn’t the incentive to produce the amount we’re producing,” said Chris Zeigler, executive director of API Ohio, which represents oil and gas interests.  Siderewicz pegged the economic loss at $29 billion over the expected 50-year life of the planned Lordstown plant. That project would have created 1,100 construction jobs in an area of the state that has struggled financially. “Sadly enough, this direct damage to Ohio is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of bad news for Ohio,” he said. House Bill 6 requires the state’s residential electricity customers to pay an extra 85 cents a month from 2021 through 2027 to shore up the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants owned by FirstEnergy Solutions, an arm of Akron-based FirstEnergy that is working to emerge from bankruptcy protection. The company had said that without subsidies, it would have to close the plants, which produce about 15% of the state’s electricity and employ about 1,400 workers. The fee is expected to generate about $150 million a year for the plants. The company will have to demonstrate the need for the subsidies every year.  The legislation also bails out two coal-fired power plants, one in Ohio and the other in Indiana, owed by a group of power companies that include American Electric Power.

Utica Shale well activity as of Aug. 17 - Nine horizontal permits were issued during the week that ended Aug. 17, and 14 rigs were operating in the Utica Shale.

• DRILLED: 253 (253 as of last week)
• DRILLING: 171 (171)
• PERMITTED: 471 (468)
• PRODUCING: 2,246 (2,240)
• TOTAL: 3,141 (3,132)

TOP COUNTIES BY NUMBER OF PERMITS:

• 1. BELMONT: 654 (654 as of last week)
• 2. CARROLL: 526 (526)
• 3. HARRISON: 477 (474)
• 4. MONROE: 435 (435)
• 5. GUERNSEY: 277 (277)

Ohio Residents Who Complain About Oil And Gas Feel 'Abandoned' By State - A decade ago, people in Ohio hadn't heard much about fracking for natural gas in the state. But since then, the ups and downs of the gas industry have literally changed the rural landscape of eastern Ohio.  For some people that has meant new jobs or royalty payments from leasing their land. But the thousands of new well pads, the pipelines, compressor stations, and waste injection wells haven't been welcomed by everyone. Citizens have filed thousands of complaints with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) about everything from gas leaks and crumbling roads to odors and noise they blame on energy development.  Kerri and Jeff Bond's house in the hills of Noble County, Ohio is nearly empty. After 40 years here, they feel they need to leave."It's been difficult," said Kerri Bond. "But today, I have just this peace, because we're finally going to get out of here."  The reason Bond says they need to leave is why many in the crowd here are intrigued by this auction: The lucrative underground mineral rights are for sale. Those mineral rights are leased to Antero Resources. The Bonds signed their first lease in 2013, at the beginning of the fracking boom. Then two years later, the family was forced by the state to sign another lease with Antero, which is allowed under Ohio law. Antero's well pad sits a quarter mile uphill from the Bonds' house. Four lines extract gas from under the property, providing the Bonds with monthly royalty payments. The last month’s royalty check was $42,000.  So, why would someone forgo that kind of money, leave their farm, and their family? The Bonds say the gas industry that has made them money, has also sullied their land, water and air.The Allegheny Front confirmed that the Bond family made numerous complaints to various state agencies, concerning well pad noise and bright nighttime lights, and that gas development was polluting the air and water, and harming their health."Every tree in the yard was dying, my cats died, my chickens died, we got sheep dying," Kerri Bond claimed.Bond complained to the state about her family getting odd rashes, headaches and dizziness. She said her grandson developed a breathing problem. She feared high levels of radiation. Bond complained to the Ohio Department of Health, but its testing found no radiological health hazard.She complained to the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA). The OEPA declined to comment, but sent their investigative report to The Allegheny Front. The report clarified that while the agency has no authority to regulate noise or light pollution, it tested air quality at the well pad, and on the Bonds' property. Antero was allowed to test at the same time. The OEPA found leaks from the well pad equipment of benzene and volatile organic compounds, but at levels allowed under Antero's permit.

Yale and MIT Researchers Studying Water Quality and Oil and Gas Drilling in Ohio's Appalachian Basin - Yale News Researchers from the Yale School of Public Health (YSPH), Yale Forestry & Environmental Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will be testing drinking water samples and conducting interviews from approximately 200 households in Belmont and Monroe Counties in Ohio this summer.The effort is part of the WATer and Energy Resources Study (“WATER Study”) to investigate how oil and gas activities may influence groundwater chemistry and human health in the Appalachian Basin.Oil and gas extraction has been particularly intensive in Belmont and Monroe Counties, where more than 1,000 horizontal wells have been drilled in the last decade. This surge in energy production has helped make oil and gas more abundant and less expensive, but deployment of new technologies, including high-volume hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), has been accompanied by concerns about environmental contamination and health problems in host communities.  “Though fossil-fuel development involving hydraulic fracturing has expanded rapidly in Eastern Ohio, evidence on whether the practice affects water quality in nearby communities remains limited,” said YSPH Assistant Professor Nicole Deziel, one of the study’s lead investigators. “We are conducting the largest water quality study in the region to date to address these information gaps.”The Ohio WATER Study started at the end of May and will continue through mid-August. As part of the study, residents will receive a report with their individual water testing results.  “Providing measurements of their home water quality is one way to address community concerns about the unknown,” says Deziel.

Shell cracker is a harbinger of things to come, drawing in President Trump and protesters - Like it or not, the $6 billion plant is a large link in an oil and gas supply chain — likely the harbinger of more chemical development in Appalachia and support for a struggling oil and gas industry overwhelmed by too much product and too few dollars.  The administration — through Department of Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and DOE Assistant Secretary Steve Winberg — has embraced the petrochemical industry and the oil and gas industry as beacons of economic potential. Mr. Winberg, a former Consol Energy Inc. executive, even hired a full-time promoter for the “Appalachian petrochemical renaissance.” Ken Humphreys, a senior adviser to Mr. Winberg, said in June that he has been coordinating with federal agencies to shepherd petrochemical projects. He said if the opportunity is fully developed it could yield 100,000 jobs in the industry.  The Shell cracker plant project was greenlighted a few months before Mr. Trump was elected president in 2016. It has been considered the centerpiece of the region’s pitch for more such plants as well as for a $10 billion natural gas liquids storage hub. The combination would help ethane, the feedstock for the cracker, develop its own local market in Appalachia.Mr. Winberg said at a petrochemical conference in Pittsburgh in June that he and Mr. Perry “hit the road every chance we get to talk about this opportunity.” “The EPA and other agencies are redesigning regulations to speed up these projects while still protecting the environment,” he said.When asked for specifics, an EPA spokesman on Monday cited a number of Trump administration initiatives, including removing requirements for facilities that want to upgrade equipment to come up to current permitting standards. Another effort makes it easier for pipelines to secure water crossing permits under the Clean Water Act — in part by limiting the information that state regulators can consider and the time they have to consider it. He also noted the swapping out of the Obama-era Clean Power Plan — that administration’s hallmark climate change legislation — with the less restrictive Affordable Clean Energy rule.The spokesman also said the Trump administration is getting ready to propose changes to oil and gas rules that will “remove regulatory requirements that are not appropriate to regulate, and will reduce unnecessary regulatory duplication, saving $85 million in regulatory costs from 2019 to 2025.”

Trump’s large union crowd at Shell was given the option of not showing up — and not getting paid Post-Gazette The choice for thousands of union workers at Royal Dutch Shell’s petrochemical plant in Beaver County was clear Tuesday: Either stand in a giant hall waiting for President Donald Trump to speak or take the day off with no pay.  “Your attendance is not mandatory,” said the rules that one contractor relayed to employees, summarizing points from a memo that Shell sent to union leaders a day ahead of the visit to the $6 billion construction site. But only those who showed up at 7 a.m., scanned their ID cards, and prepared to stand for hours — through lunch but without lunch — would be paid.  “NO SCAN, NO PAY,” a supervisor for that contractor wrote.  That company and scores of other contractors on site and their labor employees all have their own contracts with Shell. Several said the contracts stipulate that to get paid, workers must be onsite.  Those who decided not to come to the site for the event would have an excused but non-paid absence, the company said, and would not qualify for overtime pay on Friday. Shell spokesman Ray Fisher explained that the workers onsite have a 56-hour workweek, with 16 hours of overtime built in. That means those workers who attended Mr. Trump’s speech and showed up for work Friday, meeting the overtime threshold, were being paid at a rate of time and a half, while those who didn’t go to hear the president were being paid the regular rate, despite the fact that both groups did not do work on the site Tuesday. “This is just what Shell wanted to do and we went along with it,” said Ken Broadbent, business manager for Steamfitters local 449.

Fracking at Edgar Thomson steel mill among concerns discussed at environmental forum in Forest Hills - Braddock resident Je'Amour Matthew punctuated Tuesday's environmental forum hosted by state Rep. Summer Lee with a passionate speech that resonated with the roughly 50 people who attended.“What have they done for you, my friends?” Matthew said, referring to what she sees as inaction by elected officials. “When you stand up and start asking your representatives, ‘What the hell?’ I am of flesh and blood. I matter. Your pocket shouldn’t be benefitted for my health.”Matthew said she feels that some officials are neglecting the health concerns of their constituents to support the fracking and petrochemical industries. “We know these mills are affecting our lungs and our health and shortening lives,” she said. “What is a dollar bill worth if you don’t have a quality of life?” As Matthew made her way back to her seat, the crowd gathered in the Forest Hills Borough Building erupted with applause and cheers.The public forum was organized to provide information about actions being taken on key environmental justice issues at the state level in Harrisburg and the community level in Allegheny County. Several members of the audience shared their dissatisfaction with what they viewed as a delayed public notification by the Allegheny County Health Department to a December fire at U.S. Steel Clairton Coke Works. The fire damaged equipment that is responsible for cleaning sulfur dioxide before it’s emitted into the community. Sulfur dioxide can irritate the lungs.  Attendees also raised concerns about the proposal to drill for natural gas, or frack, at U.S. Steel’s Edgar Thomson Steel Works in Braddock. Earlier this month, Lee sent a letter to the Allegheny County Board of Health and Allegheny County Health Department expressing concerns about public health and safety due to the proposed natural gas drilling at the Edgar Thomson steel mill. The letter highlights that to a community that is already suffering from high asthma rates and other health concerns, the new fracking wells will only create more public health and air quality violations. “We just wanted to make it known that we object, that this is a dangerous proposal, that Merrion Oil & Gas are not equipped to do this type of fracking, and that all throughout the process, they have not been in compliance,” Lee said at the forum. “Fracking is already dangerous. It is even more dangerous to have someone come in who is inexperienced in the particular type that they are doing.”

Pipeline board plan running into resistance — A legislative proposal to create a pipeline oversight board intended to provide greater transparency and reassure the public that the infrastructures are safe is running into resistance. Some state officials say the measure wouldn’t do enough to protect information that should remain secret to protect the infrastructure from terrorists. Pipeline safety has become an issue of concern statewide as fracking has made Pennsylvania one of the country’s leading sources of natural gas, she said. A pipeline explosion in Beaver County destroyed a home prompted the evacuation of neighboring homes last September, according to the Associated Press. Agency officials said that the proposal for the board would create problems with the way the state handles confidential information about pipelines. The board would provide for the collection and sharing of information and appropriate public safety measures related to the planning, siting, construction, and safety of emergency response procedures for pipelines. In addition, the board would be responsible for coordinating communications regarding pipeline activities between government agencies, the pipeline companies and the public.

‘Great progress’ in South Philly refinery cleanup, fire commissioner says - The dangerous task of disposing of a toxic chemical at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery has had “very good results,” leaving about half of the original 30,000 gallons of hydrofluoric acid remaining, according to city officials. “We’re fortunate that we have not had any injuries. … Great progress has been made,” Philadelphia Fire Commissioner Adam Thiel said. Philadelphia Energy Solutions workers, along with contractors, began neutralizing hydrofluoric acid at the South Philadelphia refinery last week, more than a month after an explosion and fire destroyed the unit that used the chemical to create high-octane gasoline. Hydrofluoric acid, or HF, was integral to the process at the alkylation unit that blew up June 21. A PES employee quickly transferred the chemical to another container after the explosion, saving workers and the surrounding neighborhood from what experts say could have been a catastrophe. But tens of thousands of gallons of HF remained after the fire itself was contained. At room temperature, HF is a gas, but for industrial use it is dissolved into a liquid solution. Swallowing just a small amount of HF or getting small splashes on the skin can be fatal, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The acid molecules are very small and can easily penetrate the skin and get directly into bones, where the acid reacts with calcium and effectively dissolves the bones. In the gaseous state, the CDC says, low levels of HF can irritate the eyes, nose and respiratory tract. Breathing it at high levels “can cause death from an irregular heartbeat or fluid buildup in the lungs.”

PES up against the clock to sell Philadelphia refinery in cash crunch (Reuters) - Finding a buyer for Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ oil refinery has grown urgent as the bankrupt company’s funds dwindle and no signs emerge that it is winning a fight for insurance payouts after a June blaze at the plant, according to court documents and bankruptcy experts. Without access to the more than $1 billion in insurance coverage, selling the refinery has become one of the company’s only options to raise cash before being forced to liquidate. At least three parties have potential proposals to buy the shut Philadelphia refinery, each with plans to reopen the 1,300-acre (5.3-square km) site with a mix of oil refining and alternative energy production, sources familiar with the plans said. Initial meetings are scheduled between the prospective buyers and a collection of vetters over the next several weeks, but it is unclear how long it would take for any official bid to come together, the sources said. PES was not available for comment on whether it had reviewed any of the proposals or how viable it considered them to be. For the second time in less than two years, PES filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 21, exactly a month after fire and blasts destroyed an alkylation unit at the 335,000-barrel-per-day refinery. PES shut its final crude unit in late July, and more than 600 workers are in the process of being laid off without severance pay or the option for continued health insurance. The company has no prepackaged arrangement to restructure the business or income from running the refinery, the largest in the U.S. Northeast, raising the likelihood it will be forced to liquidate.

Bankrupt Philly Refinery’s Hiring of Kirkland Opposed by DOJ - The Justice Department is opposing Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc.'s plans to hire Kirkland & Ellis LLP as bankruptcy counsel because the law firm also represents the oil company’s largest shareholders and largest creditors.Bankruptcy counsel should not have an interest “materially adverse to the interest of the estate or of any class of creditors or equity security holders,” the U.S. Trustee, the DOJ bankruptcy watchdog, said in its Aug. 16 objection to the hiring of Kirkland. Kirkland’s duty to the equity holders and creditors show it’s not a “disinterested” party under the law, the trustee said in the filing at the Delaware bankruptcy court.Kirkland disclosed it represents entities holding more than two-thirds of Philadelphia Energy’s equity, the U.S. Trustee said.The trustee also objected to the refinery operator’s selection of Alvarez & Marsal North America LLC as its restructuring advisors. It said that Alvarez shouldn’t be allowed an “evergreen” retainer—a deposit that’s replenished every time a firm draws against it for fees—because Alvarez already has a $1 million retainer and gets favorable payment terms from the bankruptcy court’s earlier orders. Philadelphia Energy July 21 filed its second Chapter 11 case in a less than a year, about a month after catastrophic explosions and fires forced the company to close its refineries in South Philadelphia.

Exclusive: Biofuels company proposes to buy fire-damaged Philadelphia refinery - (Reuters) - A biofuels producer said on Thursday it is proposing to acquire the fire-damaged Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery and convert it to make renewable diesel and jet fuels. S.G. Preston Co is the first company to identify itself as a potential buyer of the refinery, the oldest and largest on the East Coast. PES’s owners halted production at the 335,000 barrel-per-day refinery and put the 1,300-acre (526-hectare) facility up for sale after a June fire damaged one of its gasoline-producing units. The biofuels company would convert at least a portion of the plant to make renewable diesel, marine diesel and jet fuel. Raw material for the fuels would be fats, oils and grease acquired mainly from surrounding communities, two people familiar with the meetings said. “We can use the existing equipment, labor and regional waste streams to show the rest of the country how to bring back our jobs and industries,” Randy LeTang, chief executive of Philadelphia-based S.G. Preston, said in a statement.

CNX Resources Lays Off 10% of Total Workforce – More Cuts Coming?  - CNX Resources has just laid off (i.e. fired) roughly 50 employees company-wide, most of them at company headquarters in Canonsburg. But not all. We heard from an MDN trust source who said at least nine workers got their walking papers in West Virginia. Given the company employs about 500 people, 50 fired represents 10% of the workforce. Question is, will there be more firings?

Rice taking the reins at EQT - — EQT Energy is under new management, and new CEO Toby Rice talked a big game about the future of the company last week, seeking to restore the faith of the shareholders.  Rice addressed close to 200 landowners from across Belmont County and the region during a town hall meeting at the Union Local High School commons Thursday evening. He described his route to taking control of EQT in July, the company’s future goals and practices in the area, and answered questions from the landowners. Rice said EQT would work on more solid business practices, heightening communication with landowners and producing results for the shareholders. Numerous attendees spoke about their past problems with EQT, including disorganization and lack of response. The attitude at the town hall was enthusiastic and welcoming of Rice’s leadership. Rice Energy was sold to EQT in 2017, and the Rice family — who founded the company in 2008 — and other shareholders were subsequently dissatisfied with EQT’s operations. He said EQT has a responsibility to provide heating energy for customers, new profits for shareholders, and fair treatment and consideration for the properties of landowners who have signed leases with the firm. He said EQT’s third quarter of 2018 was unsatisfactory. Rice expressed his frustration when working with EQT during this time, adding that advice and offers of assistance from the Rice Energy team was ignored. “Every instance that we offered to EQT was ignored, rejected and rebuffed, and we were left with no other choice but to go and speak with the shareholders and ask us to allow them to have majority control of the board,” he said. A vote placed seven Rice candidates on the board and Rice was named CEO in July. “The shareholders are supporting us. The board is supporting us.”

Electric fracking promises millions in savings, reduction in emissions - On the surface, the Richhill 13 well pad, nestled among the hills of Greene County near the West Virginia border, looks like any other of CNX Resources Corp’s drilling operations. The well bores have already been drilled deep underground, and CNX crews are moving to the next phase, fracking, which shoots water and sand into the well to permeate the rock beneath and stimulate the natural gas trapped down there to flow to the surface. But look a little closer and it’s apparent that this isn’t just any traditional well pad. Instead, it’s a pioneer among Marcellus Shale wells in the use of a new, more cost-efficient and environmentally friendly way to frac gas. Canonsburg-based CNX has signed a three-year contract to use Evolution Well Services’ all-electric frac fleet, which is used in the hydraulic fracturing process and includes a natural gas-fired engine to run the machinery and a turbine that pumps sand and water to bring gas up out of the ground. CNX is the first producer in the Appalachian basin to use an all-electric frac fleet, and the Richhill well is one of the first to use the new equipment. Traditionally, hydraulic fracturing is a complicated, energy and labor-intensive process, one that requires engines that have lots of horsepower, a multitude of pipes and constant attention by workers to make sure it’s going right. But walk around Richhill 13, or any of CNX’s other all-electric frac operations, and you’ll notice how quiet it is. That’s because instead of using diesel fuel and diesel engines to run the equipment, Evolution uses natural gas produced on site to fuel the jet engine-like turbines that power the fracking operation. Natural gas not only is plentifully available at the site, but it also removes from the roads the constant flow of diesel trucks to keep the 24/7 operation running.

How an Application for Propane Fracking Attempts to Circumvent New York's Fracking Ban – DeSmog - Four years after New York announced the state was banning hydraulic fracturing (fracking), Tioga Energy Partners, LLC hasfiled an application with the state to frack for natural gas, but there's a catch. The company is proposing to swap propane into the industry standard mix that usually calls for water.Environmental advocates consider this application to use liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and specifically a propane gel, an attempt to circumvent New York's 2015 ban on fracking for fossil fuels.This idea was first proposed the same year the state banned high volume hydraulic fracturing. At the time, pro-fracking industry news site Marcellus Drilling News described it as “a brilliant move by the landowners in Tioga County.”But New York’s activist community, which led the years-long effort to secure the prohibition on fracking in the first place, doesn’t agree, according to Yvonne Taylor of the nonprofit Seneca Lake Guardian.“New York is a front runner in the charge to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels while we stare down a Global Climate Emergency,” Taylor told DeSmog via email. “Governor Cuomo's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) was recently signed into law and is designed to transition New York off of fossil fuels in the next 30 years. Approval of using propane to extract fracked gas flies in the face of this initiative, and must be flatly denied.”A broad coalition of groups is opposing the potential propane fracking project. Sixteen organizations, including Earthjustice, Catskill Mountainkeeper, Riverkeeper, and the Sierra Club, signed an August 2 letter voicing concerns over the proposal to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). The letterdescribes the risks of LPGfracking, such as “…groundwater contamination, radioactive wastes, dangers in transport of LPG, harmful air emissions, and direct and indirect impacts upon public health.”

Wolf tells pipeline activists he won’t shut down Mariner East - Gov. Tom Wolf told anti-pipeline activists on Thursday that he is not going to stop construction or operation of Sunoco’s Mariner East pipelines. At a rare face-to-face meeting with opponents at a pipeline construction site in East Goshen Township, Chester County, Wolf was repeatedly urged to shut down the pipeline until public safety can be assured. But he disappointed activists by stating clearly that he would not do so. Eve Miari, an organizer of the event, said Wolf’s statement was the first time he had gone on the record saying clearly that he would not shut down the line because of safety concerns. Wolf’s appearance a few yards from backhoes and other construction vehicles on the pipeline right-of-way was seen by activists as a rare opportunity to state their case that the natural gas liquids pipelines represent a grave risk to public safety in their densely populated suburb. Six people who live near the cross-state pipeline, plus a supervisor for East Goshen Township, took turns pressing that case to Wolf. Ginny Kerslake, a resident of West Whiteland Township, said residents really wanted to show Wolf specific places where she said pipeline construction and operation threatens their water quality and physical safety, but instead only had the opportunity for an impromptu meeting in a supermarket parking lot next to the construction site.

Sixth man admits role in altering emission control devices on trucks used in Marcellus Shale gas fields -– An inventory and logistics analyst has become the sixth individual to admit participating in a scheme to tamper with emission control devices on heavy duty diesel trucks used in the Marcellus Shale natural gas fields. Brian Mellott, 46, of Cumberland, Maryland, pleaded guilty Wednesday in U.S. Middle District Court to a charge of conspiracy to defraud the United States by obstructing a lawful function of government and violations of the Clean Air Act. It is the same charge to which the other five pleaded guilty and admitted between August 2013 and March 2016 they altered the devices on more than 30 heavy duty trucks to reduce repair costs and maintenance down time. Mellott’s involvement included ordering equipment that when installed fooled control devices into believing emission systems were operating correctly. He also admitted falsifying invoices by listing the “defeat” devices as exhaust systems. Mellott worked in Lycoming County at the Linden facility of Rockwell Northeast, a subsidiary of Rockwater Energy Solutions Inc. of Houston, Texas. Rockwater provides transportation of water and wastewater to and from natural gas wells.  The scheme to which all six admitted participating involved:

• Replacing hardware control devices with exhaust tubing or “straight pipes” that do not limit emissions.
• Removing the hardware control devices from their compartments and then re-welding the entry point to create a false appearance they remained installed.

Natural Gas Prices Overcome All Bearish Obstacles To Close Higher - It's not how you start, but how you finish. That's today's motto for the natural gas market, which looked poised to close potentially several cents lower on the day in early trading. The September contract was down more than six cents at one point before staging a major comeback and ending the day a penny higher than Friday's close. The initial downward push came as the result of bearish forces on both the supply and demand sides of the equation. First, we saw new all-time record highs over the weekend in natural gas production. On the demand side, the weather forecast shifted cooler, resulting in fewer Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs), or in simpler terms, less natural gas demand compared to Friday's forecast. Basic economics says when you have more supply and less demand, price should fall, and that's what happened in the early morning hours. But notice in the above graphic, despite the cooler change (fewer GWDDs), the 15 day GWDD total is still well above normal, some 12.5 GWDDs above normal to be exact. Furthermore, when looking at the daily GWDDs in chart form, we see that tomorrow is the hottest (highest GWDD total) of the entire forecast period. The high near-term heat led to strong Henry Hub cash prices, which at one point traded as much as 6-7 cents over prompt month, and rallied as the session wore on, taking prompt month prices close to unchanged on the day after the early morning lows. A second boost came about an hour before the market's close, as it was reported that exports to Mexico may increase as early as next week due to the Sur de Texas pipeline finally coming into service, finding a home for a little of the excess supply, as pushing prompt month prices over the top to finish green on the day. This continues the trend we have seen in recent weeks where there has been an abundance of intraday volatility even on days that wind up with a very small daily move, creating opportunities for the active trader to cash in on moves in both directions.

US natural gas in underground storage increases by 59 Bcf - US natural gas in storage added 59 Bcf last week, just below a survey of analysts expecting a 61 Bcf build, while NYMEX Henry Hub futures remained nearly static following the announcement.  US natural gas in storage increased to 2.79 Tcf for the week ended August 16, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The injection was slightly less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 61 Bcf injection. Survey responses ranged from 54 to 65 Bcf. The build was more than the 47 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2018, as well as the five-year average injection of 51 Bcf, according to EIA data.  As a result, stocks were 369 Bcf, or 15.2%, more than the year-ago level of 2.428 Tcf and 103 Bcf, or 3.6%, less than the five-year average of 2.9 Tcf.The NYMEX Henry Hub September contract fell 1 cent to $2.16/MMBtu following the announcement. The October contract also fell 1.3 cent to $2.16/MMBtu as well. Both the summer and winter contract strips are seemingly stuck in a slump, with a roughly 10 cent mid-August bump leading to prices transacting now at early August levels.  The EIA's Midwest region registered the largest net injection, adding 31 Bcf to 760 Bcf. It is currently the only region trending above its five-year average of 753 Bcf. The only region to post a withdrawal for the week was the South Central, which subtracted 4 Bcf to 935. This was due to a 9 Bcf drawdown in the salt-dome facilities. Unlike most storage facilities, which are typically installed in depleted oil fields, the salt domes allow for quickly switching from injections to withdrawals. The South Central salt domes currently hold 205 Bcf, which is 19% below the five-year average. US Onshore production continued to set new record highs, gaining 0.3 Bcf/d from the Northeast and Southeast week over week, averaging 87.3 Bcf/d for the reference week, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Warmer temperatures across the Lower 48 softened estimated power burn demand by about 6 Bcf, which was partially offset by a corresponding 2 Bcf gain in residential and commercial demand. While weekly injections continue to run above average the Mexican government and pipeline operators have reportedly reached an agreement this week that will provide some much-needed southbound export capacity for the oversupplied US gas market and support gas prices through September, according to Platts Analytics.

 A Look Back At This Week In The World Of Natural Gas  -- Natural gas prices wound up moving lower this week, closing about a nickel under last Friday's close, though we did see some of our usual volatility, as prices tested the 2.25 level in the September contract earlier in the week before sellers stepped in. The contract finished the week just over the 2.15 level. natural gas commodity weather As usual, there were multiple forces at work. On the bearish side of the spectrum, we saw new all-time highs hit in natural gas production this week. We also saw cooler weather forecast changes for the final third of August into the first few days of September, with blue colors making a return to our forecast maps. natural gas commodity weather On the bullish side, LNG returned to much higher levels this week, with maintenance on LNG facilities coming to a completion. natural gas commodity weather We also heard earlier in the week that exports to Mexico could increase as early as next week, as the Sur de Texas pipeline begins service. Yesterday's EIA report came and went, and was mostly neutral, with the reported build coming in at 59 bcf for the week ending 8/16, almost dead-on our estimate of 58 bcf. In our view, that was not a complete rejection of the bullish EIA report last week, but was a little looser week over week, and still loose when looking at the same gas week in previous years. natural gas commodity weather Of course, a lot of the "looseness" was still due to low LNG intake for the week, which brings us to the question, what do we see next in the world of natural gas? The return of LNG should help supply / demand balances tighten from here, but does production continue to make new highs to negate some of that impact? On the weather side, yes, it is September, so it is more difficult for weather to move the needle as much, but we are seeing some turning back upward in the forecast demand charts at the end of the 15 day period. natural gas commodity weather Does the weather now begin to turn back in the more supportive direction after the Labor Day holiday weekend? We will casually mention that seasonality often begins to favor the bulls after Labor Day as well, although this is of course not something that guarantees a similar result this year. Our products can help you sort through all of these potential market-moving issues to give an idea how price action will behave next. Sign up for a 10-day free trial here to take a look at what we have to offer, and what our research suggests in terms of anticipating natural gas' next move.

Pipeline opponents arrested after locking themselves to construction equipment -  Two opponents of the Mountain Valley Pipeline were arrested Thursday, after they attached themselves to construction equipment in Franklin County. Pipeline opponents arrived at the work site along Wades Gap Road around 7 a.m., and two of them attached themselves to two pieces of equipment. The Franklin County Sheriff's Office responded, and called in the Virginia State Police to help remove the devices protesters used to secure themselves to the equipment.  "Nobody's been unruly. Everybody's been talkative, been able to communicate," said Major Mike Bowman, with the Franklin County Sheriff's Office, "but they told us they had nothing really to say to us until things were finished and complete." As officers worked to free one of the protestors, tarps blocked the view of cameras. But reporters could see what was happening with the second protester, as police cut away the restraint and took the person into custody.

Why the Mountain Valley Pipeline is uniquely risky -   On Aug. 8, Mountain Valley Pipeline requested “emergency authorization” from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to repair an eight-acre landslide that “has progressed to the point where a residence directly downslope is unsafe to be occupied.”  Unfortunately, events like this are almost expected; MVP chose to route, and FERC chose to approve, this titanic 42-inch diameter, 303-mile pipeline across several hundred of miles of “high landslide potential” areas.  While MVP is not the first pipeline to cross unstable terrain, nor the first pipeline to be located in landslide-prone Appalachia, is MVP actually any different from previously built pipelines? The answer is an unequivocal “yes.” In fact, it appears MVP has the notoriety of crossing more miles of high-risk terrain than any other major natural gas transmission pipeline in the past two decades. And perhaps ever. Since 1997, FERC has approved no fewer than 46 new natural gas mega-pipelines, defined here as pipelines that are at least 24 inches in diameter, more than 100 miles long, and not installed along pre-existing utility corridors. A review of the landslide hazard information contained in the environmental impact statements (EIS) for this set of pipelines reveals 22 of them – almost half – do not traverse any high landslide risk areas at all. The remaining 24 pipelines cross anywhere from 0.2 to more than 200 miles of high risk terrain.Out of all these mega-pipeline projects, MVP finds itself infamously at the top of the list, having routed 225 miles of the pipeline – 74 percent of its total length – across high landslide risk terrain.  Just behind MVP, the 42-inch Rover Pipeline crosses 224 miles of high landslide risk areas. Yet it is a much longer pipeline; these high risk areas account for 44% of its 510-mile length. The Rover Pipeline is notoriously one of the most environmentally destructive pipelines in recent history. Last year, the pipeline was fined $430,000 for a litany of water quality violations in West Virginia due to failed sediment and erosion control devices.

Oil Companies Persuade States to Make Pipeline Protests a Felony - After protesters disrupted construction of an oil pipeline in North Dakota by chaining themselves to construction equipment and pitching tents along the route, oil and chemical companies found a way to keep it from happening again.They made it a crime.The companies, including Koch Industries Inc., Marathon Petroleum Corp.and Energy Transfer Partners LP -- whose Dakota Access project in North Dakota was targeted three years ago -- lobbied state legislatures to effectively outlaw demonstrations near pipelines, chemical plants and other infrastructure. Nine states have gone along so far, in some cases classifying the activities as felonies. More are considering measures.The lobbying campaign, documented in state disclosures and other records reviewed by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about corporate influence muzzling free speech. “Oil refiners, especially Koch Industries and Marathon Petroleum, orchestrated this unholy alliance of oil, gas, chemical, and electric utility companies to crush resistance to polluting industries,” said Connor Gibson, an investigator with Greenpeace who has tracked the efforts. Industry representatives portray their efforts as a necessary counter to the increasingly aggressive tactics of activists, which include videotaping confrontations with police for posting on social media. Bills criminalizing trespassing near oil pipelines, gas processing equipment and other designated “critical infrastructure” passed this year in Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas -- building on similar measures previously enacted in Oklahoma and other states. Supporters are now pushing to create infrastructure protest laws in Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania.Their template is model legislation endorsed by the American Legislative Exchange Council, the conservative group backed by the Charles Koch Institute, which encourages state lawmakers to advance ready-made bills on topics ranging from gun rights to tort reform.

Oil Lobbyist Touts Success of Criminalizing Pipeline Protests – The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a powerful lobbying group that represents major chemical plants and oil refineries, including Valero Energy, Koch Industries, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum, has flexed its muscle over environmental and energy policy for decades. Despite its reach, AFPM channels dark money and influence with little scrutiny. The group is now leveraging its political power to criminalize protests of oil and gas infrastructure. In an audio recording obtained by The Intercept, the group concedes that it has been playing a role behind the scenes in crafting laws recently passed in states across the country to criminalize oil and gas pipeline protests, in response to protests over the Dakota Access pipeline. The laws make it a crime to trespass on public land used for “critical infrastructure,” impose a fine or prison time for violators, and hold protesters responsible for damage incurred during the protest. Many of the laws also carry heavy fines to groups and individuals who support such demonstrations. The trade group, which was founded in 1902, has long played an outsized role in shaping policy disputes. Last year, AFPM and its members mobilized over $30 million to defeat the carbon tax proposed in Washington State, easily outspending an environmentalist campaign funded by philanthropist billionaires and small donors. In June, Derrick Morgan, a senior vice president for federal and regulatory affairs at AFPM, spoke at the Energy & Mineral Law Foundation conference in Washington, D.C., explaining the role his trade group has played in criminalizing protests. AFPM did not respond to a request for comment.

2 pipelines damaged in Lincoln County explosion could be up and running by end of August - Texas Eastern plans to have two pipelines that were damaged in the explosion earlier this month in Lincoln County up and running by the beginning of next month. The company said, depending on when it gets regulatory approval, one of its lines could be back in service by this weekend. Construction on the other line could wrap up by the end of the month or the beginning of September. On Aug. 1, a gas pipeline exploded, killing 58-year-old Lisa Derringer and hurting five others. The explosion and fire shook homes, destroyed buildings and scorched the ground over hundreds of feet, burning cars out and turning yards black. The fire from that blast burned a roughly quarter-mile area, consuming trees and vegetation. A man living near the site had third-degree burns over 75 percent of his body, according to a federal report.

KY Regulators Want Proof Of Bernheim's Standing In Pipeline Complaint - Kentucky utility regulators want more information to decide whether Bernheim Arboretum and Research Forest has legal standing to file a complaint over a natural gas pipeline in northern Bullitt County.  Bernheim filed a complaint with utility regulators in early August alleging Louisville Gas and Electric bypassed the typical process for a new natural gas pipeline and hid information from the public. Then the Kentucky Attorney General’s Office jumped into the fray last week asking to intervene and expand the scope of the case.  The order issued Tuesday says the Kentucky Public Service Commission can’t make a decision to move forward with the case until it learns more about Bernheim’s legal status. Much of the order revolves around questions about Bernheim’s property rights (or lack thereof) at the time the pipeline project was approved, said Andrew Melnykovych, Public Service Commission spokesman.  LG&E first mentioned the need for another 12-mile-long gas pipeline buried inside hundreds of pages of testimony in a 2016 rate case. The line would cut about three-quarters of a mile through Bernheim’s property, mostly along an existing electric transmission line. Ordinarily, utilities apply to the Kentucky Public Service Commission for a certificate that a new project is safe, reliable and necessary. LG&E said it didn’t need it. The commission said it did, but didn’t make them apply and instead approved one based on information supplied in the rate case. Bernheim’s complaint argues if the utility had filed an application, it could have given the public additional information about the proposed pipeline.

In North Carolina, novel legal maneuver deployed against Atlantic Coast Pipeline  - With the Atlantic Coast Pipeline mired in federal lawsuits and its construction stalled indefinitely, North Carolina environmental advocates are attempting a novel legal maneuver to stop the gas project from ever coming to the Tar Heel State. Friends of the Earth and the North Carolina Climate Solutions Coalition have filed a petition with the administration of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, asking officials to revoke a key water quality certificate they issued for the pipeline early last year.  The filing rests on a little-known administrative rule that allows state officials to cancel the certificate if the conditions around its approval change, or if the information justifying it turns out to be wrong.  Petitioners say a revocation is warranted because — among other reasons — developers vastly understated the project’s environmental footprint, especially at its proposed terminus in Robeson County. A request like this hasn’t been made recently, if ever, and no one knows quite how it will proceed. At a minimum, it will reignite debate over the pipeline’s impacts in Robeson, one of the poorest and most racially diverse counties in the country. At its most successful, the petition could kill the project altogether.  Designed to transport gas from Marcellus shale fields through West Virginia to Virginia and North Carolina, the 600-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline once seemed inevitable. It was backed by utility heavyweights Duke Energy and Dominion Energy, who promised a $4.5 billion investment and hundreds of jobs. It was blessed by a string of politicians from governors to county commissioners, many praising fossil gas as a clean alternative to coal to environmentalists’ dismay. But today, the pipeline looks iffy, at least in its current iteration. Lawsuits have halted construction since December, with appeals likely to drag on into next year. Duke and Dominion predict they’ll ultimately prevail in court but haveacknowledged they need a “Plan B” if they lose. Costs have ballooned to $7.8 billion, and some hard-nosed investors doubt the project will ever be built. Environmental advocates claim the pipeline isn’t necessary to meet the region’s energy demands and have sued to overturn the permission slip from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC. The panel’s approval underpins a complex web of other permits from federal and state agencies. The FERC case is yet to be heard, and so far, pipeline foes’ most successful legal arguments have centered in the Virginias, where the project’s 100-foot wide construction berth would cross the Blue Ridge Parkway, the Appalachian Trail and two national forests.

Federal court order blocks pipeline near Hancock — A federal judge Wednesday upheld Maryland’s denial of an easement for a proposed natural-gas pipeline west of Hancock. “We are pleased that the court has agreed that a private pipeline company cannot force the state to accept a pipeline under the Western Maryland Rail Trail,” Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh said in a written statement. “We will continue to defend Maryland’s right to control its public lands against any other efforts by the natural gas industry to move forward with this project.” The decision Wednesday came from a judge in the U.S. District Court in Baltimore. Columbia Gas Transmission, a subsidiary of TC Energy, has proposed running the pipeline from existing facilities in Pennsylvania to a new Mountaineer Gas Co. pipeline in West Virginia. Proponents have said the new pipeline is critical to economic development in West Virginia’s Eastern Panhandle. “We will be evaluating our options in response to today’s decision,” Tim Wright, a spokesman for TC Energy, wrote in an email Wednesday. “We are committed to moving forward with this project to ensure that we can safely and reliably deliver a vital energy source to help power a region’s homes, businesses and economy.” Opponents have said the pipeline, which would burrow more than 100 feet under the Potomac River, would threaten the environment and drinking water while bringing little benefit to the state. “Really, why do we need this pipeline if it doesn’t benefit Maryland?” Brent Walls of the Potomac Riverkeeper Network said in an interview Wednesday.

U.S. oil firms challenge pipeline surcharge for steel tariff - (Reuters) - Two U.S. shale producers have challenged an energy pipeline operator’s proposed surcharge for the Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported steel, raising the stakes for pipeline builders facing higher construction costs. The United States imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum last year to shield U.S. producers from overseas competition. U.S. energy industry trade groups have warned the tariffs could raise costs for companies and consumers. U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips and a unit of Canadian producer Encana Corp on Monday asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to reject Plains All American Pipeline’s (PAA.N) proposed tariff surcharge on its Cactus II oil pipeline, according to a regulatory filing. Houston-based Plains this month proposed charging shippers a 5 cents per barrel fee on its 670,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Cactus II pipeline next April to offset higher construction costs due to the steel tariffs. “We feel the tariff filing should be denied because it is procedurally incorrect, (and) does not clearly describe or justify the surcharge,” ConocoPhillips spokesman Daren Beaudo said in an email. Encana and Plains did not respond to requests for comment. In their filing, ConocoPhillips and Encana said Plains’ surcharge was premature because the U.S. Commerce Department may still grant the pipeline operator an exemption before the fee goes into effect in April. The companies said surcharges “are generally disfavored” by FERC.

Three counties pass same Line 5 resolution GT commissioners propose -- A resolution supporting Enbridge Energy’s proposed tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac will appear before the Grand Traverse County Commissioners Wednesday morning, and it’s almost identical to what three Upper Peninsula counties already passed.The tunnel through bedrock would replace the Line 5 twin oil pipelines that currently sit on the lakebed. Dickinson County passed the resolution on June 24. Iron and Gogebic counties adopted nearly identical versions last week. Dickinson County Commissioner Barbara Kramer said her board drafted a resolution after Enbridge appeared at the spring meeting of the Upper Peninsula Association of County Commissioners."They're anxious to promote this, and we're anxious to support it,” she said. “It's hands down just the best way to go."She added that Enbridge did not suggest specific language for the resolution. She thinks Enbridge has been forthcoming and sees a tunnel as a more environmentally protective option.Joe Bonovetz, a commissioner for Gogebic County, said it’s common to share resolutions between different U.P. counties. “It was a resolution that we received from Dickinson County,” Bonovitz said. “They had passed it prior to us.”Enbridge spokesperson Ryan Duffy said the support reflects the company’s engagement efforts.  “We've had several open houses, we're talking to people, we're talking to elected officials and answering questions, and we're seeing a lot of support for the tunnel project,” he said. “I think that's what you're seeing here."

 Equinor Completes $1B Gulf of Mexico Deal - Equinor revealed Monday that it has completed its $965 million deal with Shell Offshore Inc to acquire an additional 22.45 percent interest in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Caesar Tonga oil field.  Equinor’s interest in Caesar Tonga, which is situated 180 miles south-southwest of New Orleans in the Green Canyon area, has now jumped from 23.55 percent to 46 percent. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation is the operator with a 33.75 percent interest and Chevron holds a 20.25 percent stake. Equinor first announced the deal in May, labeling the field as an asset the company understood well in a company statement at the time."Deepwater Gulf of Mexico forms an important part of Equinor’s portfolio,” Christopher Golden, Equinor’s senior vice president for International and North America offshore development and production, said back in May.“This deal will strengthen our position in this prolific basin and build on the recent discovery in the Blacktip well,” he added.Shell Offshore Inc. announced a “significant” discovery at the Blacktip prospect in the deepwater U.S. GOM in April. Equinor holds a 19.1 percent working interest in the block. Equinor has been present in the U.S. GOM since 2005. The company also has U.S. onshore operations in the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Appalachian basins.

BHP Delivers Largest Bid in US Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale -A U.S. Gulf of Mexico lease sale held Wednesday morning yielded almost $159.4 million in high bids for 151 tracts, the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) reported.Lease Sale 253, which was livestreamed from New Orleans, saw BHP deliver the largest bid of $22.5 million for the Green Canyon 124 block.The top five companies based on the sum of their high bids are:

• BHP | 20 high bids | $41.8 million
• Anadarko Petroleum | 14 high bids | $23.4 million
• Chevron Corp. | 17 high bids | $22.6 million
• Equinor ASA | 23 high bids | $16.8 million
• BP, plc | 21 high bids | $14.7 million

“We are excited about the results from today’s lease sale, which show a continued upward trend for the year,” said Andrea Travnicek, the Interior’s deputy assistant secretary for land and minerals management. “The total from today’s lease sale and the March sale is the highest since 2015 for high bids.”Aside from BHP’s highest bid, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell plc submitted the next highest bids at $6.7 million and $5.6 million, respectively.The National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA) issued the following statement regarding what they referred to as “modest results” of the lease sale.The results “reflect the cautiously optimistic attitude of an offshore industry still in recovery. While companies have improved the efficiency of their operations and rig rates and supply chain prices are more competitive, oil prices remain flat. Bidding activity today may reflect the slower than desired improvement in prices. There is also uncertainty surrounding pending regulatory actions such as financial assurance and fair market valuation.” The NOIA noted that deepwater and ultra-deepwater tracts drew high interest in this sale and shallow water tracts also proved to be attractive.

Gulf of Mexico oil, gas lease bidding down from last 2 sales (AP) — Oil and gas companies made $159.4 million in high bids Wednesday for federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico, down from sales in March and a year ago.The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management says 29 companies bid on 144 tracts. That’s about 1% of the tracts offered.The March sale drew $244.3 million in high bids on 227 tracts, and the one in August 2018 brought $178.1 million in bids on 144 tracts.A news release said this year’s total high bids are the highest since 2015.Agency statistics indicate totals of $419.2 million this year and $561.5 million in 2015. Totals were $174.5 million in 2016, $395.9 million in 2017 and $302.8 million last year.

LOUISIANA: Coast Guard says it burned oil spill outside New Orleans -- The Coast Guard said it has burned off oil that spilled last week in a marsh about 42 miles south-southeast of New Orleans.

‘They do not need Louisiana’s permission’: Pipeline companies seize land rights with eminent domain  - In the patchwork of rice fields and pastures spreading across southwest Louisiana is a parcel Jay Lewis’ family has called their own for longer than anyone can remember. “It’s been with us since our great, great grandfather, maybe longer,” said Lewis, 50, as he trudged through a soggy pasture on a cold January day in Jefferson Davis Parish, which is about 10 miles from Lake Charles. “Every day, I’ve been here. I’m a piece of this.” “If you don’t have land, you don’t have nothing.” Last year, he was shocked to learn that a Houston, Texas oil company had Louisiana’s blessing to take some of his family’s land and run a pipeline through it. Energy Transfer Partners was claiming eminent domain, a power used by governments to seize private property for public benefit, wherever it met resistance along the route of its 163-mile-long Bayou Bridge Pipeline. The expedited project, which was completed in March, serves as the last link in a pipeline network connecting North Dakota’s Bakken oil fields with ports and refineries in Louisiana and Texas. Louisiana isn’t the only place where energy companies use eminent domain to take property for oil and gas infrastructure. Several states — most of them in the South — have long granted oil and gas companies this right, a process also known as expropriation. Seizures used to happen infrequently and quietly, typically in rural or impoverished areas where political support for the oil industry is strong. Now, pipeline companies are asserting eminent domain rights more boldly as they try to keep pace with the recent boom in domestic oil and gas production. Construction is expected to speed up as President Donald Trump removes barriers to new pipelines and streamlines review processes. As a result, more landowners in Louisiana and across the South could lose property rights with little compensation.

LOOP stepping up domestic oil exports   The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is located about 18 miles off the coast of Port Fourchon in the Gulf of Mexico.The 40-year-old deep water facility is designed for unloading crude oil cargo from deep-draft tankers.The United States lifted its ban on oil exports in December 2015.  Since then LOOP has gone from taking in imports to pushing out exports. LOOP President Terry Coleman said the terminal is now exporting about 150,000 barrels of oil per day.

BHGE Wins Louisiana LNG Project - Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE) reported Tuesday that it has won a contract and has been granted a notice to proceed on Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass Project in southwestern Louisiana. Earlier Tuesday, Venture Global noted that it had reached a favorable final investment decision and closed project financing for the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility and the associated TransCameron pipeline. BHGE will supply the LNG liquefaction train system (LTS), power island system and field support services under the contract, the company noted in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. The Calcasieu Pass LTS will comprise 18 modularized compression trains across nine blocks and boast a total nameplate capacity of 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), according to the contract recipient.  Also, BHGE explained that the modularized system speeds installation and reduces construction and operational costs. The firm added the modules will be manufactured, assembled, tested and transported from BHGE plants in Italy. “By providing innovative LNG technology solutions to projects such as Calcasieu Pass, BHGE is continuing to help unlock the potential of natural gas,” Rod Christie, president and CEO of BHGE’s Turbomachinery and Process Solutions unit, said on his company’s behalf. BHGE stated that it expects equipment deliveries to begin in the second half of 2020, adding that it will provide associated field support services to assist in the oversight, installation and commissioning of the supplied equipment. Moreover, the firm noted the Calcasieu Pass contracts are the first such deals awarded under a master equipment supply agreement through which it will provide 60 mtpa of standardized LNG production at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG projects. Shortly after clearing a crucial federal regulatory milestone, Venture Global began full-site construction of Calcasieu Pass in February of this year. In Tuesday’s announcement, the firm noted that proceeds from the newly secured $7.1 billion – a combination of $1.3 billion in equity investment and $5.8 billion in debt – will fully fund the balance of construction and commissioning for the export facility.

Cameron LNG begins commercial operations - - The first production unit at the Cameron LNG export terminal in Louisiana has started commercial operations. In a Monday afternoon statement, San Diego utility company Sempra Energy reported that Train 1 at its Cameron LNG facility is officially exporting liquefied natural gas on a commercial basis.  "We are proud that Cameron LNG has realized this key milestone with an excellent safety record and zero lost-time incidents," Sempra executive Lisa Glatch said in a statement. "We remain focused on safely achieving commercial operations of Train 2 and Train 3."Federal regulators have given crews until September 2020 to complete the second and third production units at the Louisiana facility.Once all three are in operation, Cameron LNG will be able to make nearly 12 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas per year. Those production figures translate roughly to about 1.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, enough energy to power 8.5 million U.S. homes for a day.

Freeport LNG produces first batch of liquefied natural gas -   Freeport LNG is on track to become the second liquefied natural gas export terminal in Texas after the facility produced its first batch of the supercooled fuel. In an Monday afternoon statement, McDermott International, Chiyoda International Corporation and Zachry Group reported that an LNG production unit named Train 1 has produced its first liquid. While the plant remains in uts startup phases, first liquid is considered a significant project milestone and a precursor to the facility's first export cargo, which is expected later this month. "When a facility starts producing a product, it is always a notable achievement, especially for large-scale projects, such as Freeport LNG," McDermott Senior Vice President for North, Central and South America Mark Coscio said in a statement. Train 1 was originally supposed to be in production by the fourth quarter of 2018. Facing months of construction delays, Freeport LNG asked federal regulators to postpone the startup until Sept. 2019. The startup for Train 2 have been postponed until Jan. 2020 while the startup for Train 3 has been postponed until May 2020.

Permian Highway Pipeline beginning construction - Preliminary construction for the Permian Highway Pipeline kicked off Wednesday near Pecos, an approximately 430-mile-long natural gas pipeline expected to provide additional takeaway capacity to the region. The pipeline, being built by Kinder Morgan Texas Pipeline, will run from the Pecos area to the Katy area, near Houston, transporting natural gas from the Permian Basin to various markets across Texas, as the pipeline cuts right through the hill country of Texas south of Austin. “It’s a significant capacity takeaway for much needed natural gas transportation,” Allen Fore, Kinder Morgan vice president, public affairs said. “In crude extraction, natural gas is a byproduct, and if you don’t have a place to put it, the producers flare it.” Initial construction activity is starting in the Pecos area before initial construction activity begins across the rest of the project, Fore said. They are currently doing survey staking, which Fore said is identifying a center line to construct the pipe, and that the actual earth-moving activity of installing the pipe underground would begin next month. “The key part of it really is [natural gas] is going to have a place for it to go to,” Fore said. “If you don’t have a transportation mechanism it can potentially be flared away.” Flaring is an environmental concern for many, and Fore said the installation of this pipeline would reduce the activity in the Permian Basin, while also providing more natural gas for power generation in Texas. “If natural gas is the predominant source of fuel for power generation, that’s better than most of the alternatives, which are less clean burning,” Fore said. Natural gas isn’t as clean as, say, solar power, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports burning natural gas for energy results in less emissions of nearly all types of air pollutants and carbon dioxide than burning coal or petroleum products.

19-year-old urges gas pipeline safety after surviving explosion - - A 19-year-old is recovering after surviving an accident involving a gas pipeline in Fort Bend County. On Aug. 16, Jacob Kowalik says a gas pipeline exploded right next to him while he was working for the Fort Bend County Drainage District. "It was just a normal day," Kowalik said. He told ABC13 that he was in a slow mowing tractor when his coworker, who was about 20 yards ahead of him in a 15-foot shredder, unknowingly hit a gas pipeline and it exploded. "There was no signage telling me there was a pipeline there," Kowalik said. Initially, Kowalik said he did not know what was happening. He said he thought his mower was having some kind of equipment issues. "I got off my tractor and the gasses pushed me to the ground and threw me like a rag doll," Kowalik said. "I was thrown probably 10 yards in the bottom of the creek bed behind my tractor." The pressure from the pipe was tremendous, and the force sent rocks and other debris shooting into the teen's back. A picture of his injuries shows several red bumps. The force was so strong the teen told ABC13 that he lost his shoes, phone and hat. The Texas Railroad Commission sets the safety guideline for pipelines in Texas and confirmed to ABC13 that the department is looking into the incident:

US Oil, Gas Rig Count Plummets by 19 - The U.S. dropped 16 oil rigs and three gas rigs for a net loss of 19 rigs, according to BHGE.The U.S. dropped 16 oil rigs and three gas rigs for a net loss of 19 rigs, according to weekly data from Baker Hughes, a GE Company.This is in sharp contrast to last week’s gain of six oil rigs.  This brings the total number of the nation’s active rigs to 916, down 128 from the count of 1,044 a year ago. The following states lost rigs:

• Pennsylvania (-6)
• Colorado (-4)
• Texas (-4)
• Oklahoma (-3)
• Alaska (-2)
• New Mexico (-2)
• Louisiana (-1)

West Virginia and Kansas were the only states to add rigs this week at three and one, respectively. Among the major basins, the Permian led this week with a loss of seven rigs. Despite the loss, the Permian still has 434 active rigs, which account for almost half of the nation’s active rigs. Additional losses include:

• DJ-Niobrara (-5)
• Marcellus (-3)
• Ardmore Woodford (-1)
• Cana Woodford (-1)

The Mississippian added one rig this week.

US rig count slips below 1000 for first time since May 2017 -  — The US oil and gas rig count slipped below 1,000 for the first time in nearly 28 months as industry awaits signs that could point the way out of a sluggish, uncertain market, weekly figures from RigData supplied by Enverus, formerly called DrillingInfo, showed Thursday. For the week ended Wednesday, the total rig count stood at 998, down 9 on the week, with two-thirds of the decrease from rigs chasing natural gas.  This is the first time the total rig count has been below 1,000 since the first week of May 2017. The gas rig count stood at 199, down 6 on the week - the first time gas rigs have numbered less than 200 since the last week of April 2017.  The other third of rigs that left the field were oil-weighted, down by 3 to 793 - the lowest oil rig count also since early May 2017.  Both Brent and WTI have been in a range of respectively at or just below $60/b and in the mid-$50s/b for about the last month. NYMEX WTI crude oil 12 months out is $52.46/b, while ICE Brent 12 months forward is $57.33/b. These are 7% and 4% respectively below current trading prices. For the week ended Wednesday, the largest movement versus the previous week came from the Permian, where rigs were up 4 to 434. Other than that, rigs in the other seven of the eight named US basins in the Enverus count went up or down a rig or two, except for the Williston Basin in North Dakota and South Dakota which stayed the same at 57.Gaining one rig during the week were the Denver-Julesburg Basin in Colorado, up to 29, and the Marcellus Basin, mostly in Pennsylvania, up to 49. Basins with rig losses included the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas, down two this week to 76. Three other named basins lost one rig each - the Haynesville Shale in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, down to 52; the SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma, down to 70; and the Utica Shale largely in Ohio, down to 15.In addition, permits were down substantially this past week by 377 to a total of 667. That is nearly triple the amount they were down last week -- by 124.Biggest losses in permits came from the D-J Basin, down by 156 to 88 on the week, while the Permian permits were down 46 to 124 and the Dry Marcellus, largley in Pennsylvania, down by 28 permits from last week to 28 this week. Other named basins were down or up less than 10 permits week on week.

Texas well completions drop 12% through July - (Reuters) - The number of oil and gas wells in Texas readied for production fell nearly 12% in the first seven months of 2019 compared with the same time last, according to data from the state energy regulator, as activity dropped on concerns of slowing demand and oversupply.Producers completed 5,749 wells in Texas from January to July versus 6,514 in the same period last year, the Railroad Commission of Texas said on Friday. Completion means the wells are ready to start producing.Permits to drill new wells in the largest U.S. oil-producing state also declined this year, falling by about 14% to 7,166 in the first seven months of the year from 8,330 last year.The declines have hurt companies that provide hydraulic fracturing and other services to energy producers. Many pressure pumping firms raced to build or acquire new equipment in recent years on hopes that producers would begin working through a build-up of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells.Shares of pressure pumper Liberty Oilfield Services this week fell to a record low of $10.96, less than half its peak of $23.90 in May 2018. Rival ProPetro traded down to $10.91 this week, near a record low and 57% below its peak in April 2019.Across the United States, the total number of DUCs is anticipated to have fallen by about 100 in July to 8,108, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The only major U.S. shale field still adding to its DUC backlog is the Permian Basin, which stretches across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. In the Permian, the number of DUCs is expected to rise by 9 in July to 3,999, the EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

Texas shale towns grapple with growth as oil-bust fears fade - (Reuters) - In west Texas, the center of the U.S. oil boom, about 3,800 students at Permian High School are crammed into a campus designed for 2,500, with 20 portable buildings to help with the overflow. School officials had expected enrollment to fall after the last oil price crash, starting in 2014, but it kept rising - one sign of a growing resilience in the region’s oil economy as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and other majors continue pouring billions of dollars into long-term investments here. For most of the last century, oil money has flowed into this region like a rising tide during booms - but residents here had enough sense to know it would flow right back out again when the next bust hit. That cycle has always made officials, developers and voters wary of investing too much during the good times on everything from school construction to roads to housing. That hesitance is fading fast as oil majors make ever-larger and longer-term commitments to drill in the Permian Basin and residents grow weary of traffic jams on once-rural roads, long waits for medical appointments, pricey housing and overcrowded schools. Local governments, industry and foundations are joining forces to tackle the region’s overwhelmed infrastructure and public services. “When you have more students, you need more teachers,” said Danny Gex, principal at the Odessa school, which was made famous as the home of the Permian Panthers football team in the book and screen adaptations of “Friday Night Lights.” Texas has a statewide teacher shortage, Gex said, and “when you’re in a desert, it makes it a lot more difficult to find them.” Also in severe shortage: housing. The median price of a home in Midland, $311,000 in April, was higher than any other Texas city except the hip tech-industry hub of Austin, according to data tracked by Texas A&M University.

Texas Driller Sues US to Get Visa for Big-Game Hunter-- Matador Resources Co. is suing U.S. immigration authorities to give the oil driller’s $110,00-a-year big-game hunting expert a visa. Roy Dirk Ludick, a professional hunter and guide licensed in Zimbabwe since 2003, plays a critical role in Matador’s outreach to “high-valued partners, shareholders, and stakeholders,” the company said in a lawsuit against the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. The agency erred in denying Matador’s request to classify Ludick as an alien “of extraordinary ability in business,” according to the suit. Matador said Ludick is so good at what he does that he makes more than twice what other guides rake in. U.S. oil producers are facing increasing pressure to curb spending -- especially on perks and salaries -- from investors keen to see better returns. Explorers such as Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Devon Energy Corp. have been slashing jobs to rein in costs. Halcon Resources Corp. elbowed aside its founder, wildcatter Floyd Wilson, who was criticized for things like flying private after the driller emerged from bankruptcy. Matador “has access to various hunting properties in the United States,” according to the suit. “The hunting camps and surrounding habitats require year-round management by a professional guide with knowledge of and experience in extensive camp construction and maintenance, habitat management, and conservation.”

Will state officials backtrack on protections for a rare lizard in the West Texas oil patch? - In a clash between habitat conservation for a rare lizard native to West Texas and oil and gas interests, the Trump administration, in league with officials from a major subsidiary of Exxon Mobil, appears close to quashing a state proposal favoring beefed-up species protections, according to multiple people involved in negotiations. The tactic comes as the Trump administration this month announced it was weakening endangered species protections, clearing the way for more oil and gas development. The Texas issue concerns protections for the dunes sagebrush lizard, a species environmental groups want to be designated an endangered species. To preempt the lizard’s listing — which historically carries heavy federal regulations — Texas officials years ago implemented a voluntary program in which oil and gas companies agreed to some habitat protections. But state Comptroller Glenn Hegar proposed the heavier-duty state plan a year ago to replace a previous version that he said suffered from “systemic problems.” Oil and gas interests, however, are trying to revive the old, discredited plan, and the comptroller’s replacement proposal has languished in Washington, with the U.S. Interior Department holding off on putting the proposal on the Federal Register for public comment — a major step toward codifying the plan.

Exclusive: Lotus Midstream mulls reversing West Texas to Cushing pipeline - (Reuters) - Pipeline operator Lotus Midstream LLC may reverse flows on a line now sending crude from West Texas to Cushing, Oklahoma, the main hub for pricing U.S. crude futures, three people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, an unusual move that could lift U.S. benchmark prices by draining supplies. Reversing the flow on a portion of Lotus’s Centurion pipeline would send oil on a circuitous route from the country’s main storage hub at Cushing to the its top shale field in West Texas and then via new pipelines into Gulf Coast export hubs, they said.But with the operators of the new pipelines offering discounted prices to attract shippers and as oil in West Texas fetching higher prices than in Cushing, the reversal would be lucrative for shippers, traders and analysts said.“Centurion is always evaluating the best ways to serve its shippers,” said Lotus spokeswoman Casey Nikoloric, declining further comment. Centurion, which consists of two lines rated at 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) combined, had the smaller line flowing to West Texas. But in 2014 former owner Occidental Petroleum shifted its direction to Cushing to take advantage of the then-deep discounts on shale in the Permian Basin. Lotus is considering reversing the flows on either its Centurion North Line, which has 110,000 bpd of capacity, or the South Line, with 60,000 bpd capacity, the people said. Permian output has risen to 4.3 million bpd from 1.68 million bpd since that reversal, helping drive U.S. crude exports this year above 3 million bpd, according to U.S. government data. Three new pipelines from the Permian will increase existing capacity by two-thirds, with about 2.5 million bpd in additional space. Reversing one line would support crude prices at Cushing as storage there is drained, and restrain Midland prices that have risen with the startup of new Plains All American Pipeline LP and EPIC Midstream Holdings LLC’s lines, traders and shippers said. “The Midland differential to Cushing would be a lower premium than expected,” one U.S. trader said. “The reversal would help pull down Cushing (inventories) faster,” he added. Inventories at Cushing fell to 44.8 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, after peaking at 53.5 million in mid-June.

This Isn't Normal- Kansas & Oklahoma Hit By 65 Earthquakes In Last 7 Days -  The state of Kansas is certainly known for a lot of things, but earthquakes are not one of them, and that is why what we just witnessed is so startling.  According to the Kansas City Star, one county in central Kansas alone has been hit by 11 quakes within the past five days… A county in central Kansas experienced a pretty shocking uptick in seismic activity last week — 11 earthquakes in five days. It started with a magnitude-2.4 earthquake Wednesday morning just 2 1/2 miles southwest of Hutchinson, Kansas, in Reno County, according to the United States Geological Survey. There would be 10 more before the week was out. The biggest one of the group hit on Friday morning.  It was originally reported to be a magnitude 4.2 quake, but it was later downgraded to magnitude 4.1. Due to the geology of the region, earthquakes in the middle of the country are often felt more acutely, and this particular earthquake was powerful enough to shake things off the shelves of people’s homes…Tim Black, who lives in Hutchinson, told the TV station his house shook and things fell off the walls. And Hutchinson resident Alice Hinnen said things fell off shelves in her home. She said she has felt earthquakes before, but this is the strongest one yet. KWCH said people across Kansas felt this earthquake. “We’ve heard reports from people as far away as Topeka, Hays, Arkansas City, and into northern Oklahoma,” the station said on its website. Further south, Oklahoma has experienced even more earthquakes than Kansas has over the past seven days. Overall, there has been a total of 65 earthquakesbetween the two states over the past week.

Nebraska Supreme Court upholds route of controversial Keystone XL pipeline — In a long-awaited decision, the Nebraska Supreme Court on Friday affirmed the route across Nebraska of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline chosen by the State Public Service Commission. The unanimous decision was a victory for TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, and a blow to groups fighting the 36-inch-diameter crude oil pipeline, which was proposed more than a decade ago.The court, in a 59-page opinion that was nine months in the making, ruled that the Public Service Commission's selection of the so-called "mainline alternative route" was in the public interest, and that the Public Service Commission had the authority to choose such an alternative.The president and CEO of TC Energy, Russ Girling, said the ruling "is another important step as we advance towards building this vital energy infrastructure project.” The company had hoped to begin construction of the Keystone XL segment from Canada to a terminal at Steele City, Nebraska, this spring but was delayed by pending court cases.Gov. Pete Ricketts said it's “time to build the pipeline,” adding that the project will bring great-paying jobs and property tax revenue to the counties along the route.A leading opponent of the Keystone XL, Jane Kleeb of the group Bold Nebraska, said the ruling does not clear the way for construction of the pipeline due to federal lawsuits still pending in Montana. She said that her group will urge landowners to fight TC Energy's use of eminent domain in local courts, and urge the Nebraska Legislature to change "backward" laws that allow a foreign corporation to obtain right of way in court from private landowners.Kleeb, who is also head of the Democratic Party in Nebraska, said Bold will also work to unseat President Donald Trump, who resurrected the Keystone XL project after he took office. The pipeline lawsuit was filed after the Public Service Commission in November 2017 voted 3-2 to approve the alternative route rather than a preferred route chosen by the pipeline developer. Commissioners ruled that the alternative route aligned for about 90 more miles with an existing Keystone pipeline, and that there were "many benefits" for co-locating the two pipelines, including faster response times for potential leaks. It forced a delay in the project as TC Energy began bargaining with a new set of landowners for right-of-way agreements.

Line 3 protesters rally at Minnesota Enbridge office (AP) — Dozens of people rallied outside a Minnesota office of Enbridge Energy to protest the company’s proposed Line 3 oil pipeline replacement. Protesters say six members of their group chained themselves to a gate early Monday at Enbridge’s office in Bemidji, prompting the office to close for the day. Police Capt. David LaZella said demonstrators left on their own and no arrests were made. The $2.6 billion replacement pipeline would carry Canadian crude from Alberta across northern Minnesota to Enbridge’s terminal in Superior, Wisconsin. Enbridge says the current Line 3, which was built in the 1960s, is subject to corrosion and cracking. Environmental and tribal groups say the project risks oil spills in pristine areas of the Mississippi River headwaters region.

Elizabeth Warren comes out against Line 3 and Twin Metals, and Minnesota construction unions are not happy - U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren waded into a pair of controversial environmental debates in Minnesota this week by saying she opposed a copper-nickel mine planned in Superior National Forest and an oil pipeline that would cut through the Mississippi River headwaters. In a tweet ahead of her rally Monday in St. Paul, Warren said Enbridge’s Line 3 project would threaten water and lands important to several tribes, and pledged in a short video statement to “stop all mining on federal public lands, including the Minnesota Boundary Waters.”While mining is already banned within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, the video was filmed to support an environmental advocacy group that aims to stop Twin Metals Minnesota from building a mine just outside the protected area — and within its watershed.Warren is the third presidential candidate to come out against Line 3, a $2.6 billion project that has received most major permits for construction. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee have also said it should not be built. But Warren is the first Democratic candidate to specifically target Twin Metals and copper mining near the BWCA, and could push the issue further into the national spotlight. President Donald Trump has been an outspoken advocate of the prospective mine.The Boundary Waters Action Fund and other environmental groups celebrated Warren’s announcements, but the Massachusetts Democrat also drew the ire of some labor leaders in Minnesota who have traditionally aligned with her party.Mike Syversrud, president of the Iron Range Building and Construction Trades Council, said it “pisses me off” that Warren would take a stance before Twin Metals submits a mining plan to state and federal regulators and said the senator was abandoning rural workers to align with Twin Cities-area Democrats. Syversrud’s union on Wednesday is formally signing an agreement with Twin Metals to build the mine, if it’s approved by regulators. “Why would you want to be against something that will create so many jobs, and living [wage] jobs, within an area that desperately needs it?” Syversrud said.

Reversing Trump's Pipeline Approvals Is the Latest Litmus Test For Democratic Presidential Candidates - When Donald Trump took over the White House in 2017, one of his first acts was helping fast track major oil projects. Slowly, Democratic presidential candidates are coming out of the fold to declare that if they secure the White House, they’ll move to reverse that ASAP.The Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines are becoming the latest environmental litmus test for candidates who are in Sioux City, Iowa, this week for the Frank LaMere Native American Presidential Forum 2019. Native Americans have been at the forefront of the efforts to stop these pipelines, and some candidates are quickly realizing that these are top issues for the communities who live closest to this energy infrastructure and yet have had little to no say in their development.The promises began last week when Bold Nebraska challenged candidates to take the “NoKXL Pledge” to revoke the presidential memorandum Trump signedin March for the Keystone XL Pipeline. The proposed 1,179 mile-long pipeline would transport crude oil from the Alberta tar sands in Canada all the way to Nebraska where it would connect with the already-built Keystone Pipeline.  Washington state Governor Jay Inslee was the first to sign on publicly. Billionaire candidate Tom Steyer quickly followed. Senator Elizabeth Warrenwent even further to note that she’d also revoke the permit Trump issued in January 2017 for the Dakota Access Pipeline, a 1,172-mile stretch of pipe that transports some 470,000 barrels of crude oil a day through the Midwest. As of Monday, former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro became the latest presidential candidate to sign the pledge, also including Dakota Access.

Bureau of Land Management retirees fight plan to relocate agency out west - A group of retired Bureau of Land Management (BLM) employees are pushing the Senate to hold a hearing on the agency’s plan to move its headquarters to Colorado and scatter Washington-based staff in offices across the West. The Public Lands Foundation, a 600-member group comprised of former BLM employees, asked leaders of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee to hold a hearing on a relocation they say will “functionally dismantle” the agency. The Department of Interior announced in July that it would move 27 top BLM officials to a new headquarters in Grand Junction, Colo., while nearly 300 other D.C.-based staffers would head to existing offices elsewhere in the country. “This plan is so radical that we question whether it was studied or analyzed by non-political budget analysts or organization experts and whether BLM senior management were involved or consulted,” the group wrote to committee Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and ranking member Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Interior has argued the move will get high-level career staff closer to the lands they manage, which are primarily located in the West. But critics say it will break up staff by spreading them across the country, keeping them away from the corridors of power in D.C. while putting them closer to energy interests. “We believe this plan will result in BLM serving only the short-term wants of locally powerful stakeholders to the detriment of all other constituents and the long term needs of public lands,” the group said in its letter.

Wyoming's U.S. Congress delegates want to stop oil and gas permitting delays - — Wyoming’s delegates in the United States Congress want to ensure that delays to the oil and gas lease permitting process do not continue. “U.S. Senators Mike Enzi and John Barrasso and Congresswoman Liz Cheney, all R-Wyo., asked the Department of the Interior (DOI) what steps it was taking to ensure that future development on federal oil and gas leases in Wyoming are allowed to continue without interruption,” a Monday, Aug. 19 press release from the Wyoming Delegation states.  A March 20 “Wild Earth Guardians v. Zinke” court decision “halted drill permitting on Wyoming oil and gas leases.” A federal district court judge issued a decision that the Bureau of Land Management “did not adequately complete climate reviews for a series of Obama-era oil and gas lease sales,” according to the delegation.  “The court remanded the issue back to the BLM and said that the BLM must complete a more robust environmental analysis to predict greenhouse gas emissions linked to drilling and downstream uses of the oil and gas from Wyoming leases,” the release states. The delegation penned a letter to the Department of the Interior to “work fervently” to ensure that environmental regulations required for permitting are met.  They also urged the department to appeal the court decision “if necessary to establish a clear standard regarding greenhouse gas analyses in environmental reviews.”The delegation also said that they were concerned that environmental groups bringing such cases to court are motivated to “end all oil and gas development.” “’We are also concerned these groups will continue to pursue litigation without resolution,’ the delegation wrote. ‘It is imperative that DOI continue to expeditiously and thoroughly complete its analyses, and see these matters to completion so final decisions are attained.’”

 Tribe wants challenges to Dakota pipeline permits resolved (AP) — The Native American tribe leading the fight against the Dakota Access oil pipeline wants a judge to resolve all legal challenges to federal permits issued for the project. The Standing Rock Sioux filed a motion for summary judgment in federal court Friday. The tribe argues the $3.8 billion project needs to be shut down until the government has conducted a thorough environmental analysis and studied alternative pipeline routes. The pipeline sparked massive protests in North Dakota before it began moving oil from the state in 2017. The pipeline runs through the Dakotas and Iowa to a shipping point in Illinois. Texas-based Energy Transfer announced in June it plans to expand the pipeline’s capacity from more than 500,000 barrels per day to as much as 1.1 million barrels.

Commentary: Fracking and flaring a danger to families, oil field workers --I was recently on vacation with my 11-year-old granddaughter when her nose started to bleed on two separate occasions. I talked to her dad about it. I could tell he was looking to me for assurance she was all right and that nosebleeds might be a common occurrence for a little girl.  My son and his family live on the Fort Berthold Reservation about three-quarters of a mile from Marathon Oil fracking operations and natural gas flares. Our family lives in the Bakken oil fields where flares burn night and day in western North Dakota. In a lengthy fracking review five years ago, the New York Department of Health found environmental problems that could adversely affect public health. New York health professionals also discovered that people living around fracking areas had symptoms of skin rash, nausea or vomiting, abdominal pain, breathing difficulties, cough, anxiety, stress, headache, dizziness, eye irritation, throat irritation and nosebleeds. In the interest of state citizens, New York banned fracking in favor of further review. Today, a comprehensive 361-page report titled, “Compendium of Scientific, Medical, and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking” relies on 1,500 studies, government reports and investigative reporting. The report is blistering and bleak: “All together, the data show that fracking impairs the health of people who live nearby, especially pregnant women, and swings a wrecking ball at the climate,” said Sandra Steingraber, co-founder of Concerned Health Professionals of New York. “We urgently call on political leaders to act on the knowledge we’ve compiled.” Meanwhile, unconventional oil shale production rages on as does the burning of natural gas at well sites. Satellite images show natural gas flares lighting up the Bakken like a monotone Christmas tree. Oil companies burn less lucrative natural gas in the Bakken typically because oil production outpaces the infrastructure needed to transport the gas.

Scientists: Conventional Oil Impacts Groundwater More Than Fracking - While many protests against the oil and gas industry focus on the effects of fracking on the environment, scientists say that as far as groundwater is concerned, conventional oil and gas exploration and production could affect underground water supply much more than hydraulic fracturing could.According to a recent study by hydrogeologists Jennifer McIntosh from the University of Arizona and Grant Ferguson from the University of Saskatchewan (USask), the amount of water injected and produced in the ground during fracking operations is smaller than the amounts that conventional oil and gas production injects.     “The amount of water injected and produced for conventional oil and gas production exceeds that associated with fracking and unconventional production by well over a factor of ten,” McIntosh said in a statement of the University of Saskatchewan.According to McIntosh and Ferguson, fracking receives much of the attention, but most of the bigger picture is associated with conventional oil and gas activities.  “There’s a critical need for long-term—years to decades—monitoring for potential contamination of drinking water resources not only from fracking, but also from conventional oil and gas production,” McIntosh said.McIntosh and Ferguson analyzed information about water injection in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Permian, and the states of Oklahoma, California, and Ohio, and the amount of water produced by high-volume fracking throughout the U.S. The researchers found that due to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at conventional wells, there’s likely more water underground at oil sites, and this could change the behavior of all liquids in the ground, increasing the possibility of contamination of the water in underground freshwater formations. 

North Dakota producers flare 24% of all natural gas produced - North Dakota’s Bakken Shale natural gas output rose to a new record, but so did flaring, as pipeline and processing outages caused producers to burn off nearly 700 MMcf/d, the latest state data showed. As North Dakota oil production reached a record high of about 1.42 million b/d in June, associated gas production followed suit, reaching a new peak of 2.876 Bcf/d, according to the North Dakota Industrial Commission. But a lack of adequate gas gathering infrastructure combined with outages during the month prompted producers to flare 24%, or 686 MMcf/d, of the product. This represented a month-on-month increase of 154 MMcf/d. The percentage flared was double current state regulations, which require operators to flare no more than 12%. The figure drops to 9% in November 2020. Producers who fail to meet these requirements face possible fines. Flaring was particularly high in the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, where operators flared an average of 37% of associated gas in June. But because of outages, most of the producers flaring above the limit in June will likely be granted an exception by the state. Alliance Pipeline, which transports gas from North Dakota and Canada to Midwest markets, was one of the drivers of the dramatic increase. The pipeline was out of service June 18-23 as service was conducted on the line farther downstream. The Bantry and Tioga gathering lines tie into Alliance in North Dakota. After providing an average of 245 MMcf/d of gas to Alliance throughout the first part of the month, those points fell to zero during the outage, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics data. Even after coming back online June 24, they only supplied an average of 207 MMcf/d to Alliance over the rest of the month. Also, Oasis’s Wild Basin gas processing plant was shut from mid-June through part of July, and Kinder Morgan’s Watford City processing plant was shut for more than a week during June for repairs.

Did North Dakota Regulators Hide an Oil and Gas Industry Spill Larger Than Exxon Valdez? – In July 2015 workers at the Garden Creek I Gas Processing Plant, in Watford City, North Dakota, noticed a leak in a pipeline and reported a spill to the North Dakota Department of Health that remains officially listed as 10 gallons, the size of two bottled water delivery jugs. But a whistle-blower has revealed to DeSmog the incident is actually on par with the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska, which released roughly 11 million gallons of thick crude.The Garden Creek spill “is in fact over 11 million gallons of condensate that leaked through a crack in a pipeline for over 3 years,” says the whistle-blower, who has expertise in environmental science but refused to be named or give other background information for fear of losing their job. They provided to DeSmog a document that details remediation efforts and verifies the spill’s monstrous size.“Up to 5,500,000 gallons” of hydrocarbons have been removed from the site, the 2018 document states, “based upon an…estimate of approximately 11 million gallons released.”Garden Creek is operated by the Oklahoma-based oil and gas service company, ONEOK Partners, and processes natural gas and natural gas liquids, also called natural gas condensate, brought to the facility via pipeline from Bakken wells.Neither the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which monitors coastal spills, nor the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could provide records to put the spill’s size in context, but according to available reports, if the 11-million-gallon figure is accurate, the Garden Creek spill appears to be among the largest recorded oil and gas industry spills in the history of the United States.However, the American public is unaware, because the spill remains officially listed as just 10 gallons. That is despite the fact that a North Dakota regulator has acknowledged the spill was much larger, and even the official record, right after stating the spill was 10 gallons, notes that the area was “saturated with natural gas condensate of an unknown volume,” and thus may have been larger.

2015 North Dakota liquid gas spill much bigger than reported (AP) — A 2015 pipeline spill of liquid natural gas in western North Dakota initially reported as just 10 gallons is at least hundreds of thousands of gallons larger and may take another decade to clean up, state health officials said Tuesday. Oklahoma-based Oneok Partners LP reported the 10-gallon spill of natural gas liquids, or “condensate,” from a pipeline at its Garden Creek gas plant near Watford City in July 2015. A report by the North Dakota Health Department said “ground around the pipe was saturated with natural gas condensate of an unknown volume.” State Environmental Quality Chief Dave Glatt said the company reported last October that it had recovered 240,000 gallons of the liquid gas and that cleanup was ongoing. But the Health Department never updated its report to reflect the severity of the spill. Glatt said doing so was not required and would have been “just wild guesses anyway.” The larger-than-reported size of the spill was first reported Monday by DeSmog, a blog dedicated to fighting climate change skepticism, which reported that the spill could be as large as 11 million gallons. The blog cited an unnamed person who provided a draft document on a cleanup plan. Oneok said in a statement Tuesday that the document was done by a consultant “as part of their design process to address the release.” The company said the actual amounts of the release aren’t known. “The volume estimates included in the document were hypothetical assumptions and were used solely as a basis for the vendor’s equipment design to complete the response action efforts,” the company said. Oneok said the release was caused by “hairline cracks” in a 2-inch-wide underground pipe at the facility. Regulators don’t know how long the line had been leaking, but they said it was repaired immediately after being discovered. State environmental scientist Bill Suess visited the site the Tuesday, the day after the blog post appeared. He estimated the affected area to be about 240,000 square feet. Suess said some groundwater was affected at the site but the spill didn’t reach beyond the facility’s boundaries. The site can’t be excavated due to extensive piping beneath the natural gas factory, Suess said. Instead, the company is drilling “bore holes” to recover the liquid natural gas, which tends to evaporate when exposed to air. Suess estimated the cleanup could take “another five to 10 years.”

Spill revelation raises questions about North Dakota system (AP) — The North Dakota Health Department’s acknowledgment this week that a 2015 pipeline leak of liquid natural gas is hundreds of thousands of gallons larger than reported raises questions about how many other spills and leaks are underreported — and state officials were not immediately able to answer Wednesday. State Environmental Quality Chief Dave Glatt said the agency does not update initial public reports on spills but is considering doing so in the future. The agency said Tuesday that a 2015 pipeline spill of gas liquids, or “condensate,” at a western North Dakota natural gas plant that was first reported as just 10 gallons (8 imperial gallons) is at least hundreds of thousands of gallons larger and may take an additional decade to clean up. The initial state report on the spill at Oneok Partners LP’s Garden Creek I gas processing plant was never updated, even as Oneok updated the state on cleanup. In October, Oneok told the state it had recovered 240,000 gallons (nearly 200,000 imperial gallons) of the liquid gas and cleanup continued. The environmental blog DeSmog, which first reported the discrepancy, reported that the spill may be as large as 11 million gallons (9 million imperial gallons). The blog cited an unidentified person who provided a draft document on a cleanup plan.The company said the actual amounts of the release aren’t known. Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, who took office in late 2016, said he was unaware of the spill until reports of it surfaced this week. He said he was not told of the spill because it was not a considered a health or environmental threat and it had been contained.Under a law signed by Burgum, oil companies no longer must report spills of up to 10 barrels or 420 gallons (350 imperial g allons), if it is contained on site. Glatt said the spill at the gas plant in 2015 would still need to be reported because it doesn’t involve an oil production facility.

North Dakota agency disregarded policy on spill reporting - (AP) — North Dakota’s Health Department disregarded its own policy in updating the volume of a 2015 pipeline spill at a natural gas processing plant, and it remains unclear whether promised quarterly inspections of the site have been done in the past two years as cleanup continued.Oklahoma-based Oneok Partners LP reported a 10-gallon (38-liter) spill of natural gas liquids, or “condensate,” from an underground pipeline at its Garden Creek gas plant near Watford City in July 2015. The company told the state last October that it had recovered 240,000 gallons (908,400 liters) of the liquid gas. The second sum was not put into an incident report that can be accessed on the agency’s website.“It should have been updated,” State Environmental Quality Chief Dave Glatt said Thursday. “It was in a file, but people (the public) didn’t know where to find it.” An incident report has not been done since June 2017. At that time, the report said the spill site would be inspected quarterly. Glatt said he was investigating whether that had happened.

Long Train Runnin' - Unit Trains Now Delivering U.S. Propane To Mexico --In May 2019, Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing shipped a 100-car train filled with propane from North Dakota to Mexico, marking the first-ever single-commodity train — i.e. “unit train” — between the Bakken and the U.S.’s southern neighbor. As it turns out, it was also the first of what appears to be a regularly scheduled run to Mexico. Since May, three more unit trains have made the journey south from the Bakken’s first unit train terminal for propane. Rail shipments of propane to Mexico as part of mixed-goods trains aren’t new, but figuring out how to economically ship large quantities of propane via unit trains has long evaded NGL marketers and producers — that is, until now. What are the economics and other factors that finally made it possible, and what are the prospects and challenges ahead for unit-train exports to Mexico? Today, we look at how the first all-propane train to Mexico came to pass and what the outlook might be Before we get to this latest development in U.S. propane exports to Mexico, it’s worth stepping back for a quick review of what’s transpired in the Mexican propane market in recent years.

Long Train Runnin', Part 2 - The Economics Of Bakken-To-Mexico Propane Unit Trains --In May 2019, the first-ever propane unit train from the Bakken to Mexico reached its destination, and since then, three more of these 100-car, single-commodity “bulk” trains have made the same trip. Facilitating these shipments by Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing is Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s (MPC) unit train-loading terminal in Fryburg, ND, which was initially set up to load crude oil but was recently expanded to handle propane too. And soon, the terminal in Torreón, Mexico, that has been receiving these unit trains will have a new loop track too, enabling producers and marketers to take full advantage of the bulk transport option. Today, we look at the economics and challenges of this relatively new propane export route.As we discussed in Part 1, Mexico’s need for propane — widely used for cooking and heating water — is on the rise, even as local supply has been dwindling. That’s boosted propane imports to the c ountry, including from the U.S. and Canada in recent years. While most of those imports come to Mexico via ship (~52% or 83 Mb/d in 2018) or are trucked across the U.S.-Mexico border (33 Mb/d or 21%), a good portion (29 Mb/d or 18%) of it is railed in. [Only 14 Mb/d, or less than 10%, of it was transported via pipeline last year, owing to the limited pipeline capacity and routes available to reach key markets in interior Mexico.]

Revealed: emails raise ethical questions over Trump official's role in gas project --The US interior secretary, David Bernhardt, is promoting a fossil fuel project for which his former employer, a lobbying firm, is a paid advocate, e-mails obtained by the Guardian suggest.Experts say Bernhardt is probably violating ethics guidelines issued by the Trump administration with the stated goal of “draining the swamp”. Based on these rules, Bernhardt should be recused from specific issues involving a former client for at least two years.The Jordan Cove Energy Project was proposed by the Canadian energy giant Pembina to transport fracked natural gas through Oregon to the international port at Coos Bay in the state. It would include a new 232-mile pipeline thatpasses through several dozen miles of interior department land.Several county commissioners from Colorado, where much of the gas is fracked, met with Bernhardt in Washington DC to boost the project in March. They included Mike Samson, Bernhardt’s former high school teacher. “Awesome time in DC he is totally behind the project and has people working on it towards completion,” Samson wrote concerning Bernhardt in a 7 March email to Ray Bucheger, a Jordan Cove lobbyist with the firm FBB Federal Relations. “He recognizes that time is of the essence and that meaningful progress needs to [be] made this year.”  A screenshot from the email.   A separate text message also shows that Bucheger had hosted the county commissioners at a dinner the night before the meeting and had asked Samson to report to him what Bernhardt said about Jordan Cove. Bernhardt represented oil companies and agribusiness interests at the Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck lobbying firm before joining the Trump administration in August 2017. Brownstein Hyatt has worked to promote the Jordan Cove project since December 2018, federal records show.

California regulators still allowing industry to inject toxic oilfield waste into drinking water aquifers, violating Safe Drinking Water Act; Companies will sue if ordered to stop.   - Encana frac’d about 200 gas wells into fresh water zones at Rosebud (before April 2006), of which about 60 were more shallow than 200 metres bgs, including intentionally into the community’s drinking water aquifers, two most shallow gas wells perf’d at 100.5 m and 121.5 m bgs (Encana injected 18 million litres frac fluid into drinking water aquifers on this one gas well alone]  In response to reporting from the Desert Sun that California regulators continue to allow oil field wastewater injection into potential drinking water sources in Kern County, Andrew Grinberg of Clean Water Action issued the following statement:“It’s unacceptable that oil companies are still injecting toxic wastewater into potential drinking water sources, in violation of the Safe Drinking Water Act. Despite significant progress by state agencies in recent years to improve California’s Underground Injection Control program, the oil and gas industry still has far too much influence. State regulators need to stand up to fossil fuel interests and take more aggressive action to protect our water.… Regulators have failed to rein in these harmful impacts of this industry and protect our communities.California can no longer afford to be a fossil fuel state — it’s time to accelerate the transition away from our oil-soaked history and toward a clean energy future. If the oil industry can’t operate responsibly, then it shouldn’t operate here at all. Clean water is the most important resource for California’s future. After committing $130 million annually to help the one million Californians without safe drinking water, and adopting new underground injection regulations in April, Governor Newsom, his regulators, and the Legislature need to ensure the immediate protection of California groundwater from the threat of oil field wastewater injection.”

The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018 – EIA - U.S. petroleum and natural gas production increased by 16% and by 12%, respectively, in 2018, and these totals combined established a new production record. The United States surpassed Russia in 2011 to become the world's largest producer of natural gas and surpassed Saudi Arabia in 2018 to become the world's largest producer of petroleum. Last year’s increase in the United States was one of the largest absolute petroleum and natural gas production increases from a single country in history. For the United States and Russia, petroleum and natural gas production is almost evenly split; Saudi Arabia's production heavily favors petroleum. Petroleum production is composed of several types of liquid fuels, including crude oil and lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), and bitumen. The United States produced 28.7 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of petroleum in 2018, which was composed of 80% crude oil and condensate and 20% NGPLs. U.S. crude oil production increased by 17% in 2018, setting a new record of nearly 11.0 million barrels per day (b/d), equivalent to 22.8 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in energy terms. Production in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico contributed to most of the growth in U.S. crude oil production. The United States also produced 4.3 million b/d of NGPLs in 2018, equivalent to 5.8 quadrillion Btu. U.S. NGPL production has more than doubled since 2008, when the market for NGPLs began to expand.  U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 12% in 2018 to 28.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 31.5 quadrillion Btu, reaching a new record high for the second year in a row. Ongoing growth in liquefied natural gas export capacity and the expanded ability to reach new markets have supported increases in U.S. natural gas production. Russia’s crude oil and natural gas production also reached record levels in 2018, encouraged by increasing global demand. Russia exports most of the crude oil that it produces to European countries and to China. Since 2016, nearly 60% of Russia’s crude oil exports have gone to European member countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Russia’s crude oil is also an important source of supply to China and neighboring countries. Russia’s natural gas production increased by 7% in 2018, which exceeded the growth in exports. The Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, which loaded its first cargo in December 2017, can liquefy more than 16 million tons of natural gas annually and accounts for almost all of the recent growth in Russia’s LNG exports. Since 2000, more than 80% of Russia’s natural gas exports have been sent to Europe. Saudi Arabia’s annual average crude oil production increased slightly in 2018, but it remained lower than in 2016, when Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output reached a record high. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production reached an all-time monthly high in November 2018 before the December 2018 agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend production cuts.

The United States tends to produce lighter crude oil and import heavier crude oil -  EIA - In 2018, total U.S. crude oil production grew by 17%, led by increased production of relatively light, less dense crude oil. The increase in light crude oil production is largely the result of the growth in crude oil production from shale and tight rock formations, which are now more accessible because of improvements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.Crude oil with a higher API gravity is lighter, or less dense. Production of crude oil with an API gravity greater than 40 degrees grew from 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015 to more than 5.8 million b/d in 2018. Production in this API range accounted for 55% of total Lower 48 production in 2018, an increase from 50% in 2015, the earliest year for which EIA has crude oil production data by API gravity. API gravity can differ greatly by production area. For example, oil produced in Texas—the largest crude oil-producing state—has a relatively broad distribution of API gravities, and most crude oil produced there ranges from 30 to 50 degrees API. Relatively light crude oil with an API gravity from 40 to 50 degrees accounted for most Texas production in 2018, at 56%. Crude oil in this API gravity range—the fastest-growing category overall—reached 2.5 million b/d in 2018, driven by increasing production in the tight oil plays of the Permian and Eagle Ford. The crude oil produced in North Dakota’s Bakken formation also tends to be relatively light. Conversely, the crude oil produced in California and the Federal Gulf of Mexico tends to be heavier. In contrast to the light crude oil that is increasingly produced in the United States, imported crude oil tends to be heavier. In 2018, 7.5 million b/d (97%) of imported crude oil had an API gravity of 40 or lower, compared with 4.7 million b/d (45%) of domestic production. Although the United States has been producing record levels of domestic crude oil, it continues to import crude oil because of variations in crude oil quality. API gravity, along with sulfur content, determines the type of processing needed to refine crude oil into fuel and other petroleum products, all of which factor into refineries’ profits. Overall U.S. refining capacity is geared toward a diverse range of crude oil inputs, so it can be uneconomic to run some refineries solely on light or heavy crude oil. The API gravity of domestic and imported crude oil used in U.S. refineries has increased from a low of 30.2 degrees in 2004 to an average of 32.2 degrees in 2018. Since 2008, U.S. imports of crude oil have decreased 21%. During the same time period, domestic production grew 120% and consequently provided a greater share of refinery inputs.

A 2019 Permian Output Surge May Impact Oil Prices - The question for the longer-term is whether or not OPEC producers will respond by trying to lower global oil prices. Over the next eighteen months, pipeline capacity from the Permian is expected to increase by 1.5-2.0 mb/d, including increased delivery capacity to export terminals. This should have a number of effects, mostly positive for producers, but other constraints will mean that a sudden surge should not be expected. Higher prices for Permian crude and greater volumes will be the primary results, although an increase in flaring might bring new pressure to regulate ‘wastage’ of gas. The EIA projects slower growth in production from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020 -- 0.99 mb/d versus 1.75 mb/d from 4th quarter 2018 to 4th quarter 2019. This could be partly due to lower capital spending by shale oil producers, but it still seems unusually low. Although pipeline capacity theoretically comes online instantaneously--pipelines have to be filled, pressure ramped up, and some testing will mean it will take place over days or weeks—the supply change should not be that strong. Instead, supply now moving by rail and truck will be switched to pipeline, at least until production exceeds capacity again. So, the market impact won’t be the same as, say, major oil fields in Libya going on- and offline suddenly. There are also constraints on how quickly production can increase. The large and growing number of unproductive wells in the Permian suggests that new pipeline capacity, allowing for higher wellhead prices, will see a surge in well fracking/completions, depending on the availability of crews. Historically, the number of wells fracked in a given month in the Permian has been as high as 668 (October 2014) versus a recent level of 530, and the rate has increased as much as 20-30/month, sometimes much higher. It seems unlikely that the number of fracked wells can increase by more than 50/month, but since the typical well adds about 600-700 b/d of gross output, the implication is that Permian output could grow by an additional 30 tb/d per month, or 360 tb/d by December 2020 versus the year earlier amount. This amount is probably incremental to existing projections

The US is set to drown the world in oil - A staggering 61% of the world’s new oil and gas production over the next decade is set to come from one country alone: the United States. The sheer scale of this new production dwarfs that of every other country in the world and would spell disaster for the world’s ambitions to curb climate change – the effects of which we’re already witnessing through massive heat waves, flooding, and extreme weather. Earlier this year, we crunched the numbers from the latest climate science and industry forecasts and found that we can’t afford to drill up any oil and gas from new fields anywhere in the world if we’re to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.In our analysis, we assumed that existing oil and gas fields are going to keep on pumping for as long as they can. That means that the decisions about new projects will shape the future for the oil and gas industry and our climate. And when it comes to these new oil and gas fields, production from the US is set to eclipse the rest of the world. Production from new fields in the US is set to be eight times that of the next largest producing country – Canada. New US production is forecast to be 20 times that of Russia and more than 1.5 times the total of all other countries combined.Output is set to be so vast that if US states were treated as countries, Texas is forecast to be the biggest producer of new oil and gas in its own right, with production nearly four times that of Canada.  Seven out of the top 10 biggest oil and gas producers would be US states, with only Canada, Brazil and Russia making it onto the list. Pennsylvania is set to be the third largest producer of new oil and gas, producing more than double that of Russia.If things don’t change, by the end of the next decade, new oil and gas fields in the US will produce more than twice what Saudi Arabia produces today. The future of our changing climate and its increasingly devastating impacts across the globe will be shaped by future oil and gas production. And if the future of oil and gas production is decided by what happens in new fields, then it will be determined by what happens in the US in the next decade.

US Fracking Sector Disappoints in 2Q - A review of 29 fracking-focused oil and gas companies revealed “meager” cash returns in the second quarter of 2019. The report, which was carried out by Sightline Institute and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), noted that only 11 of the 29 companies under review registered positive free cash flows and that the 29 companies combined generated $26 million in aggregate free cash flows. These aggregate free cash flows were said to be “far too modest to make a significant dent in the more than $100 billion in long-term debt owed by these companies, let alone reward equity investors who have been waiting for a decade for robust and sustainable results”. The report, which stated that free cash flow is a crucial gauge of financial health, highlighted that “disappointing” cash flows have “soured” investors on the sector. It also noted that, at the close of 2Q, the oil and gas sector was near the bottom of the S&P 500 and stated that by August 15, the sector hit “rock bottom, with drilling, exploration and production, and equipment and services leading the decline”. “There were winners and losers this quarter, but overall, the oil and gas sector is still underperforming on virtually every financial measure,” Sightline Institute’s Clark Williams-Derry said in a company statement. “Fracking remains a highly tenuous proposition for investors,” 

U.S. refiners limit crude processing amid slack fuel demand- Kemp (Reuters) - U.S. refineries have cut the volume of crude processed so far this year, but stocks of gasoline and distillates remain ample, highlighting the slack demand for transportation fuels. Fuel consumption has stalled, part of a worldwide slowdown in oil demand associated with the slackening of manufacturing and freight activity. U.S. refineries have reduced crude input by an average of 247,000 barrels per day since the start of the year compared with the same period in 2018, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).Year-to-date processing rates have fallen for the first time since 2011 and by the most since the recession of 2008/09 (“Weekly petroleum status report”, EIA, Aug 21).Refinery crude consumption has fallen by around 56 million barrels so far compared with the same period in 2018 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2NvuABQ).Refineries cut processing sharply during the regular maintenance season in March and April and have never made up the shortfall.Processing has remained at or below prior-year rates throughout the summer driving season, normally the highest demand of the year.Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ 335,000 bpd refinery on the East Coast has been shut since a fire and explosion on June 21, which may have contributed to the loss of crude processing.But processing was already running below prior-year rates before the plant exploded and has been below 2018 rates for 13 out of the last 16 weeks since the start of May.Refiners on the East Coast have cut processing by an average of almost 120,000 bpd so far this year (mostly due to the Philadelphia explosion).But they have also reduced processing by 87,000 bpd in the Midwest, 15,000 bpd along the Gulf Coast and 45,000 bpd on the West Coast.Despite the reduction in processing, there has been no shortage of either gasoline or distillate fuel oil, with gasoline stocks level with last year and distillates comfortably above it. Fuel consumption is broadly unchanged compared with 2018, with the volume of gasoline supplied to domestic customers flat so far this year and distillate consumption down slightly.

Shale Bond Buyers Get Picky-- After years pouring funds into the shale boom, bond buyers are getting increasingly selective as defaults rise and many explorers continue to burn more cash than they make. While Exxon Mobil Corp. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. have recently sold a combined $20 billion of investment-grade debt, junk rated issuers are getting a far different market reception. High-yield energy companies have sold about half as much corporate debt this year as they had at the same time in 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance in the broader junk bond market, by contrast, was up about 30%. “We haven’t seen new energy deals getting done in the first seven months of the year for anything rated lower than B,” Eric Rosenthal, senior director for leveraged finance at Fitch Ratings, said in a telephone interview. Wary investors are more than ever pushing shale explorers to shift from the growth-focused novelty they once were to better-managed, cash-generating businesses. While they’re sitting on a wealth of crude in regions like the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, constantly tapping those resources with high-tech rigs and fracking technology can be a money drain that some have handled poorly. And while oil has more than doubled from the 2016 low, trading has been erratic. Earlier this month one oil benchmark suffered the steepest one-day drop since February 2015, as the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China roiled financial markets. Falling crude prices hurt revenue and make it difficult for companies to continue spending as much money on projects. “Ultimately, investors are also becoming a little more disciplined, if you will, and part of it may be just because of volatility on the commodity side,” said Mark Freeman, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Socorro Asset Management LP. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate oil futures were trading around $55 a barrel. The energy sector, which makes up the biggest chunk of the U.S. high yield bond market, has been the laggard this year in the Bloomberg Barclays high-yield index as defaults ratcheted higher.

Investors Are Ditching High-Yield Shale Bonds - Investors in high-yield riskier bonds of U.S. shale firms have caught up with equity investors in showing impatience over the mounting debt that the shale patch has piled up to fund production growth at the expense of cash flow and profits.  So far this year, bond issues of high-yield energy firms have been half the amount they had sold at this time last year, while total bond issues by all junk rated companies have grown by 30 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.In the Bloomberg Barclays high-yield index, the energy bond issuance has been underperforming the other sectors. The energy sector itself represents the single largest portion of the high-yield bond market in the United States. Persistently low oil prices and high corporate debt at the high-yield energy companies point to more pain and more defaults ahead, analysts say.Signs have already started to emerge. Earlier this month, Halcon Resources Corporation filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, its second Chapter 11 this decade.A few days later, Sanchez Energy also filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 following “an extensive review of strategic alternatives to align its capital structure with the continued low commodity price environment.”In July, Fitch Ratings expected the energy sector to lead U.S. high yield default volume for the third consecutive month after Weatherford’s bankruptcy. The trailing 12 months (TTM) energy default rate stood at 4.1 percent in July, compared to 1.9 percent for the overall market, Fitch said. The Halcon and Sanchez bankruptcies in August pushed the U.S. high yield energy default rate to 5.7 percent from 4.1 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of an energy filing, Fitch Ratings said in a report last week.

Oil CEOs Sell Stock and Rip Investor Apathy, Raymond James Says - The top executives at America’s independent oil and gas producers say over and over again that their poor stock performance presents a buying opportunity. That hasn’t stopped them from dumping their own shares.That’s the result of a Raymond James analysis of chief executive officers’ pay across U.S. explorers. Over the past five years, the typical CEO liquidated about $4 million worth of equity, based on the median of data assessed by Raymond James, and almost 60% were net sellers.It’s a trend that makes it harder to buy CEOs’ oft-repeated message that their companies are undervalued. An index of independent explorers is down 27% in the last year, while the S&P 500 is up 2.6%.Investors and analysts have been calling on companies to better align executive compensation plans with shareholder returns, rather than production growth. That’s generally happening, according to Raymond James analysts including John Freeman, but shareholders keep complaining that CEOs don’t have enough “skin in the game.”The CEOs of about 80% of the companies in Raymond James’ coverage space hold less than 1% of outstanding shares, the report said.

Bankruptcy Filings Rise Among US Energy Producers, Report - According to a new report from law firm Haynes and Boone LLP, bankruptcies in the upstream sector are increasing this year as energy spot prices remain subdued amid a cyclical downshift in the economy.  So far, 26 exploration and production (E&P) firms have filed for bankruptcy through mid-August, with debts totaling $10.96 billion. The firm noticed a surge in bankruptcies began in May, following a -23% correction in WTI prices from mid-April to mid-June.  In 2018, 28 E&P firms filed for bankruptcy, posting $13.2 billion in debt, while 24 firms asked for protection in 2017 with $8.5 billion in debt. The firm points out that insolvencies in the energy patch are gaining momentum."So far this year there has been an uptick in the number of filings," Haynes & Boone said.  Oil and gas prices have remained depressed for 2019.  The law firm said it's hard to tell if a new bankruptcy wave is imminent, but said, "some stakeholders may have given up hope that resurgent commodity prices will bail everyone out," especially operators who have been on the verge of bankruptcy."For these producers, the game clock has run out of time to keep playing 'kick the can' with their creditors and other stakeholders," the firm warned.Buddy Clark, a Haynes & Boone partner, told Reuters that many of 2019's bankruptcies are pre-planned, Chapter 11 restructurings, where creditors agree in advance on restructuring plans."I don't think you will see a lot of Chapter 7 (liquidations)," he said. "When you see Chapter 7s is when there are no assets left. Typically, there are always assets left." Natural Gas Intelligence believes a bankruptcy wave for the upstream sector could be nearing. This is because operators across the country have been scaling back since oil crashed -44% in 4Q18. Producers have been faced with margin compression, high debt loads, and oversupplied markets so far this year.

Shale Bleeds Cash Despite Best Quarter In Years - The second quarter earnings results are complete, and it was another rough three-month period for U.S. shale.  Oil prices climbed in the second quarter, with Brent topping out in the mid-$70s, before falling again after the U.S.-China trade war escalated. Notably, the extension of the OPEC+ cuts failed to rally oil prices amid growing concerns about demand. For U.S. shale, higher oil prices helped to some degree, but by and large it was another period of disappointment for a sector that has underwhelmed for years. Investors are increasingly losing patience, punishing the energy sector as a whole, and financially-strapped companies in particular.  In a study of 29 fracking-focused oil and gas companies by the Sightline Institute and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), only 11 companies posted positive free cash flow. Even then, the figures were paltry. Collectively, the group only reported $26 million in free cash flow for the second quarter, “far too modest to make a significant dent in the more than $100 billion in long-term debt owed by these companies, let alone reward equity investors who have been waiting for a decade for robust and sustainable results,” the report said.To be sure, the free cash flow result – only slightly positive – was the best result in years, the IEEFA/Sightline Institute report said. It points to progress for U.S. shale, a sector that routinely posted billions of dollars of red ink and negative cash flow in years past. The second quarter result stands in sharp contrast to the $2.81 billion the group of companies lost in the first quarter.Yet, despite the dramatic improvement, the financial results remained unimpressive. It’s an indictment of the business that one of the best quarters in years was barely cash flow positive  “Last quarter’s cash performance—just a hair over breaking even—would count as a bitter disappointment in virtually any other sector of the economy,” the report stated. “But for an industry that has posted negative cash flows for a decade, these mediocre results represent a financial high-water mark.”

Investigation and cleanup underway after oil spill near Edmonton - The Alberta Energy Regulator is investigating an oil spill southwest of Edmonton.  The spill happened in the Washout Creek Natural Area, which is about 150 kilometres from Edmonton.The AER first received notice of the spill on Thursday night.   It’s believed 40 cubic metres of crude oil spilled into the creek, a tributary of the North Saskatchewan River. Containment booms have been put in place.  The pipeline belonged to Bonterra Energy Corporation which has been ordered to clean up the site.

Alberta Extends Oil Output Cuts to End of 2020 -- Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta is extending its output cuts by a year as delays to key pipelines threaten to prolong a glut of crude in the region. The curtailment program, which will now end in December 2020, had been slated to wrap up at the end of this year as Enbridge Inc.’s expansion of the Line 3 pipeline began moving oil. But that project was set back by a year because of permitting delays in Minnesota, leaving the province’s drillers churning out more oil than they could ship to refineries. TC Energy Corp.’s planned Keystone XL line and the Canadian government’s expansion of the Trans Mountain conduit also have been bogged down by legal challenges. Alberta’s delay in ending the curtailment program may help support oil prices, as U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast refiners face the prospect of constrained shipments of Canadian heavy crude at the same time that they’re getting reduced supplies from Mexico and Venezuela. The policy is a mixed bag for Canadian drillers, who are benefiting from the higher prices but frustrated by their inability to expand output. “This is a short-term solution, and it is the last thing we want to be doing,” Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage said during a news conference. “We’re doing it because it’s essential.” Ending the program too early could cause a collapse in Western Canadian Select crude prices, hurting producers and reducing the value of royalties paid to the province, she said. Alberta could still end the curtailment before December 2020, but will need to do so in an orderly fashion, she said.

 Foreign Oil Firms Are Bailing on Canada-- Capital keeps marching out of Canada’s oil industry, with Kinder Morgan Inc.’s sale of its remaining holdings in the country on Wednesday adding to more than $30 billion of foreign-company divestitures in the past three years.Pembina Pipeline Corp., based in Calgary, is snapping up Kinder’s Canadian assets and a cross-border pipeline in a $3.3 billion deal. For Houston-based Kinder, the deal completes an exit from a country that has frustrated more than a few companies -- from ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell Plc to Marathon Oil Corp.The drumbeat of exits, rare for such a stable oil-producing country, adds an extra layer of gloom for an industry that accounts for about a fifth of Canada’s exports. The energy sector -- centered around Alberta’s oil sands -- has struggled to rebound since the 2014 crash in global oil prices, with capital spending declining for five straight years and job cuts pushing the province’s unemployment rate above 6%. Alberta is forecast to post the slowest growth of any region in Canada this year.The situation isn’t likely to improve any time soon, with key pipelines like TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL and Enbridge Inc.’s expansion of its Line 3 conduit bogged down by legal challenges. The lack of pipelines has weighed on Canadian heavy crude prices for years, sending them to a record low late in 2018.“If they thought things were getting better in Canada, they might hold on, but they don’t see things getting better,” Laura Lau, who helps manage more than C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) at Brompton Corp. in Toronto, said in an interview. “The pipeline situation is getting worse; everything is getting worse.”Other recent major divestitures include ConocoPhillips’ $13.2 billion sale of oil-sands and natural gas a ssets to Cenovus Energy Inc. in 2017, and Shell’s and Marathon’s sales of their stakes in an oil-sands project to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. for about $10.7 billion that same year. Canadian Natural also bought Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy Corp.’s Canadian heavy oil assets this year for $2.79 billion. Norway’s Equinor ASA pulled out in 2016 after facing pressure at home to invest in lower-emission projects.

 Shale gas developer frustrated by uncertainty surrounding fracking -- The New Brunswick government has yet to fulfill a controversial election promise to reopen the door to natural-gas fracking, and now one of the key players in the gas industry says the uncertainty surrounding fracking is becoming an issue. With more than two dozen wells in the Sussex area, Corridor Resources is the biggest player in the province’s domestic-gas industry, but the company is waiting for the moratorium on fracking to be lifted in the area. As a result, the company has halted the process.  Corridor has also expressed concern over coming consultations with the Aboriginal community. “Predicting a timeline as to when the consultation process is completed is difficult,” states the company in its quarterly report. But the New Brunswick Aboriginal Peoples Council says it has many questions about fracking and needs to be properly consulted on the issue. “What is actually going on here? Can it be done safely? Can it not be done safely? Is it going to affect the water? How is it going to affect the water? The whole process, they have to come and sit down and properly consult,” said Chief Barry Labillois. Holland says consultations with First Nation groups over the possible extraction of natural gas in Sussex have been ongoing, and he plans to set up in-person meetings soon. Meanwhile, environmental groups say First Nation communities are being made into scapegoats. “Oil companies and the gas companies, and some slow-to-the-case premiers, like to blame regulatory uncertainty and First Nations vetoes for just about everything,” said Lois Corbett of the New Brunswick Conservation Council. 

Legal Tussle Prevents $2.5 Billion Gas Pipeline to Mexico From Opening – WSJ - In June, construction crews finished work on a 500-mile, $2.5 billion natural-gas pipeline that runs under the Gulf of Mexico from South Texas to the port of Tuxpan in northeastern Mexico. Once it turns on, the pipeline will increase Mexico’s capacity to import natural gas by 40%, fueling the power plants and industrial installations that drive the country’s export-driven manufacturing economy. But...

CNPC Shuns Venezuela Oil on Tighter US Sanctions-- China’s biggest energy company is backing away from direct purchases of Venezuelan crude as the Trump administration tightens sanctions against the South American nation. China National Petroleum Corp. has canceled plans to load about 5 million barrels worth of Venezuelan oil onto ships this month in the aftermath of the latest executive order by President Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be identified discussing proprietary information. CNPC joins Turkey’s largest bank, Ziraat Bank, which severed its relationship with Venezuela’s Central Bank following sanctions. The moves represent a setback for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has been counting on both China and Russia to keep the country going amid a humanitarian crisis, food shortages and hyperinflation. China became the top destination for Venezuelan crude after U.S. sanctions against state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA were announced at the end of January. Venezuela may run low on options without the help of CNPC to export oil, a main source of revenue that bankrolls the Maduro regime. The three August-loading cargoes canceled by CNPC’s subsidiary PetroChina Co. Ltd. haven’t so far attracted another buyer, according to reports seen by Bloomberg. PetroChina’s press office declined to comment on market speculation, citing company policy. On Aug. 5, Trump signed an executive order authorizing sanctions on anyone who provides support to Maduro. Opposition leader Juan Guaido, recognized by the Trump administration as the country’s leader, is backed by more than 50 countries. PetroChina’s pullback doesn’t mean China will completely turn away from Venezuelan oil. Other companies can continue to supply China’s independent refiners known as teapots with the South American nation’s crude, according to people familiar with the matter. China has been a staunch supporter of the Venezuelan government since its first oil-backed loan to late president Hugo Chavez. The Asian nation has loaned $50 billion in the past decade in exchange for oil. China, along with Russia, is one of 14 nations that support Maduro.

Half of Venezuela's Oil Rigs May Shut Down If US Waivers Lapse  -- A looming U.S. sanctions deadline is threatening to clobber Venezuela’s dwindling oil-rig fleet and hamper energy production in the nation with the world’s largest crude reserves. Almost half the rigs operating in Venezuela will shut down by Oct. 25 if the Trump administration doesn’t extend a 90-day waiver from its sanctions, according to data compiled from consultancy Caracas Capital Markets. That could further cripple the OPEC member’s production because the structures are needed to drill new wells crucial for even maintaining output, which is already near the lowest level since the 1940s. A shutdown in the rigs will also put pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s administration, which counts oil revenues as its main lifeline. The U.S. is betting on increased economic pressure to oust the regime and bring fresh elections to the crisis-torn nation, a founding member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Latin America’s biggest crude exporter until recent years. Venezuela had 23 oil rigs drilling in July, down from 49 just two years ago, data compiled by Baker Hughes show. Ten of those are exposed to U.S. sanctions, according to calculations by Caracas Capital Markets. The Treasury Department extended waivers in July for service providers to continue for three more months, less than the six months the companies had sought. Most other government agencies involved in the deliberations opposed any extension, a senior administration official said last month, adding that another reprieve will be harder to come by. 

U.S. Sanctions Backfire, Lead To Boost In Russian Oil Exports - U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran have had an unplanned side effect: they have increased exports of heavy, sour crude from Russia, Bloomberg reports, adding that calculations have shown Russian oil companies raked in an additional US$905 million at least from these sales between November and July. The Urals blend is the big winner of the U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg’s calculations. Venezuela is one of the main global suppliers of heavy crude, but U.S. sanctions have shrunk its exports significantly. Iran also produces heavy, which has now become less readily available to foreign buyers, freeing up space for Urals. Finally, OPEC members prioritized cutting their heavy crude production as part of their December 2018 agreement and that added to the strain on heavy crude supply. Like heavy crude in general, Urals normally trades at a discount to Brent. However, like other heavy blends, the Russian one has narrowed the gap since November, when U.S. sanctions against Iran snapped back, despite the waivers granted to eight importing countries. Eventually, it swung to a premium, especially in the Mediterranean, where a lot of Iranian oil used to go.Right now, Urals is trading at a discount of more than $2 per barrel to Brent crude but at a premium to West Texas Intermediate. It has swung to a premium to Brent several times this year. Meanwhile, according to information from oil data analytics firm OilX, Russia’s overall production is also on the rise, after a temporary decline. As of August, this climbed back above 11.3 million bpd, after dropping below 11.2 million bpd in July. U.S. sanctions are definitely changing production and price patterns in heavy crude and so is U.S. production. Italy’s Eni said in its latest World Oil Review report recently that last year that the portion of heavier sour crude grades had fallen below 40 percent of the total for the first time ever. At the same time, thanks to the U.S. shale revolution, the share of light, sweet crude increased to more than 20 percent. This, too, has had an effect on the price difference between lighter and heavier crudes.

Trump Sanctions Leave Russian Exporters $1B Richer - -- U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions against Iran and Venezuela have inadvertently increased demand for a Russian brand of crude oil, boosting revenues for the nation’s exporters.Russian oil companies received at least $905 million in additional revenues between November and July, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The calculation is based on difference between the Urals spread to the Brent benchmark over the period compared to the five-year average.The sanctions added to a jump in demand for Russian crude in the wake of output cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their partners. As a result, Russia’s Urals blend of crude has started to regularly trade at a premium to Brent.“There is a shortage of competing heavier, sourer crude right now as a result of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, but also because of OPEC+’s current production cut agreement,” Konstantsa Rangelova, analyst at JBC Energy, said by email. “Urals in the Mediterranean is at an all-time high.”The Bloomberg calculations are based on terminal data, oil loading programs for Russian ports and information from a trader monitoring S&P Global Platts oil assessments. The estimate doesn’t include any of the overall effect on Brent prices from Trump’s policies or the OPEC+ deal, just the shift in relative prices. The U.S. announced sanctions against Venezuela in late January and removed the remaining waivers for buyers of Iranian oil from May. The measure created a shortage of the heavy, sour kind of crude that the two export, a variety similar to that produced in Russia. While this oil is considered to be of lower quality, some refineries are built to process it and switching to other grades is costly.

Exclusive: Russia's Rosneft to switch to euros in oil products tenders - traders (Reuters) - Russia’s Rosneft, one of the world’s top oil producers and exporters, has notified customers that future tender contracts for oil products will be denominated in euros not dollars, five trading sources told Reuters. The move, which could come as soon as this year, is likely to be seen as an attempt to offset any potential negative impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia. Rosneft, which accounts for over 40% of oil output in Russia, produced 45.8 million tonnes of oil products at home in the first six months of this year - from diesel and gasoline to fuel oil and petrochemicals. Around half was exported to west and south-east Europe and to Asia, according to the company’s own data. The bulk of oil products for export are sold at tenders: Rosneft holds annual tenders as well as a number of spot or short-term tenders, with BP, Glencore, Trafigura, Vitol and Cetracore among top buyers. Last year, trading sources told Reuters that Russian energy majors were asking Western oil buyers to prepare to make payments in euros instead of dollars. Rosneft last week asked buyers to use the euro as the default currency for the first time in a spot tender to sell naphtha, an official company document showed. Rosneft was included in a list of some U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian companies in 2014, although those sanctions do not limit U.S. dollar usage in Rosneft tenders.

Rosneft becomes top Venezuelan oil trader, helping offset U.S. pressure (Reuters) - Russian state oil major Rosneft has become the main trader of Venezuelan crude, shipping oil to buyers in China and India and helping Caracas offset the loss of traditional dealers who are avoiding it for fear of breaching U.S. sanctions. Trading sources and Refinitiv Eikon data showed Rosneft became the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude in July and the first half of August. It took 40% of state oil company PDVSA’s exports in July and 66% so far in August, according to the firm’s export programs and the Refinitiv Eikon data, double the purchases before sanctions. Three industry sources said Rosneft, which produces around five percent of the world’s oil, is now taking care of shipping and marketing operations for the bulk of Venezuelan oil exports, ensuring that PDVSA can continue to supply buyers. Rosneft used to resell volumes it bought from PDVSA to trading firms and was less involved in marketing. Now it has started supplying some PDVSA clients - Chinese and Indian refineries - while trading houses such as Swiss-based Trafigura and Vitol have walked away because they fear they could breach secondary U.S. sanctions, according to six trade sources. Oil accounts for more than 95 percent of Venezuela’s export revenue and Washington has warned trading houses and other buyers about possible sanctions if they prop up Caracas.

Trade war impasse casts a 'dark cloud' over outlook for US oil shipments, analysts warn --An escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies is negatively impacting the outlook for U.S. crude shipments, energy analysts have warned, amid fears that China could soon dramatically reduce its intake of American oil.Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing prompted some external observers to warn the outlook for China-bound U.S. crude shipments wasfirmly skewed to the downside.“Casting another dark cloud over the outlook for U.S. crude shipments is the ongoing U.S.-China trade impasse,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note.It was around this time last year that China emerged as the biggest buyer of U.S. crude, Brennock said, but Chinese buyers were now seen as a “virtual shoo-in” to halt their intake of American oil.He explained that while losing what was once your biggest customer could hardly be conducive to sustained growth, any drop-off in Chinese purchases might be offset by an increase in exports to other consumers.“All things considered, the U.S. crude-export machine may struggle to maintain its record-breaking run,” Brennock said. At the start of August, President Donald Trump announced the White House would impose additional 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports from September 1. In response, China let its yuan weaken below the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade. Trump appeared to escalate tensions even further by declaring China as a currency manipulator.  The tit-for-tat dispute sent oil prices tumbling, with crude futures dropping to a seven-month low at one stage.Oil prices have since pared some of their recent losses. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $59.08 Monday afternoon, up around 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $55.32, almost 0.9% higher.

Cuadrilla Halts UK Fracking Again After Biggest Tremor Yet - Just a week after resuming fracking at its UK site, Cuadrilla paused operations—yet again—after a tremor estimated to be the biggest yet since the UK shale gas company began hydraulic fracturing exploration in northwest England last year.Cuadrilla confirmed that micro seismicity had been detected at the monitoring system in place at the shale gas exploration site at Preston New Road near Blackpool in Lancashire. The company said that “Most local people will not have felt it due to its small size,”  adding that it was pausing operations and would monitor the situation for the next 18 hours. The halting of fracking comes just a week after Cuadrilla resumed fracking at a second well at Preston New Road after it secured all permits to do so.  Cuadrilla resumes its fracking operations in Lancashire amid opposition from local residents, while the company—as well as the British government—believe that shale gas could reduce the UK’s gas import dependence and contribute to its net zero emissions target by 2050.At the Preston New Road fracking site, Cuadrilla has stopped fracking at its first well multiple times over the past year, because under UK regulations, in case of micro seismic events of 0.50 on the Richter scale or higher, fracking must temporarily be halted and pressure in the well reduced.While Cuadrilla aims to continue with its well completion program at the site andtouts spending on shale gas as boosting the Lancashire economy, climate activists and local residents continue to voice their opposition to the activities.  Friends of the Earth UK says that “It’s time for this climate-wrecking industry to be banned,” and calls on the new UK government “not to frack it up.” 

UK has five times less shale gas than previously thought, fracking study finds - There may be a lot less shale gas in the UK than previously thought – and fracking may only yield 10 years’ worth of the fuel, a study has suggested. This is five times less than 2013 estimates of 50 years’ worth, according to analysis of Bowland Shale Formation in north England. The new estimates are based on lab analysis by the University of Nottingham and British Geological Survey (BGS). Researchers used a high-pressure water technique that simulates oil and gas generation in deep reservoirs and applied it to shale to evaluate in the laboratory how much gas could be extracted. Fracking has proved controversial in the UK. Backers, including the government, claim exploiting the fossil fuel could reduce reliance on imports, secure supplies, help cut carbon emissions and create jobs. But opponents say fracking can cause earthquakes, damage the countryside and keep the UK hooked on fossil fuels instead of focusing on renewables to help tackle climate change. Researchers analysed shale rock in two locations, and extrapolated the findings to the whole of the Bowland Shale. They concluded that the maximum gas there equated to “potentially economically recoverable reserves of less than 10 years of current UK gas consumption”. Report author Professor Colin Snape said: “We have made great strides in developing a laboratory test procedure to determine shale gas potential. “This can only serve to improve people’s understanding and government decisions around the future of what role shale gas can make to the UK energy’s demand as we move to being carbon neutral by 2050.”

Ever Fewer Wealthy, Ever More Poor, Projected To Equal Ever More Demand?!? - 

• Wealthier half of the world population (with incomes of $4k+) consumes 90% of total energy and oil.
• The under 65yr/old population of the wealthier nations begins declining (depopulating) in 2023, declining in excess of 10 million annually by 2035.
• Despite the imminent decline in working age / consumer age populations of wealthier nations, total global energy and oil consumption are projected to continue rising on growth among the poor.

First chart is the 0 to 65 year old population of the worlds nations that have in excess of $4,000 annual gross national income per capita or average of $16k per capita (solid blue line) and their total energy consumption (dashed blue line).  This is versus the worlds nations with annual gross national income per capita below $4,000 or average of $1.6k per capita (solid red line) and their total energy consumption (dashed red line).   Same variables as above but showing the annual change in the nations with $4k+ and annual change in population under $4k...again versus their total energy consumptions.  Population data includes anticipated ongoing immigration to the wealthier nations away from poorer nations at present rates...absent this, the wealthy nation depopulation begins sooner and is even more significant.  Global oil consumption with EIA projection through 2040 (black line), annual wealthier under 65 year old population growth (blue columns), annual poorer under 65 year old population growth (red columns), plus Federal Reserve set federal funds rate (yellow line). Finally, just two variables - the change per five years of the 0 to 65 year old wealthier (blue columns) and poorer (red columns) nations populations versus change per five years of global oil consumption (black line).  As the population of nations that consumes 90% of oil globally begins declining and growth among the poorer nations decelerates, oil consumption is projected to continue increasing?!?  Despite population growth driving up to half of GDP growth and the poorer nations reliant on growth among wealthier nations for their own growth...despite present near zero, zero, and negative interest rates to accommodate massive debt loads...somehow depopulation amidst the heavily indebted nations that consume 90% of global energy (coupled with conservation and innovation) is projected to be offset and outweighed by demand growth among the consumers of 10% of global energy?!?. Go figure.

Glencore, BP stuck with tainted Russian crude - (Reuters) - BP and Glencore are struggling to sell around 600,000 tonnes of tainted Russian oil more than three months after the contamination was discovered, according to six trading sources. Russia’s oil industry was plunged into a crisis in April after about 5 million tonnes of oil for export was found to be contaminated with organic chloride, a chemical used to help boost oil extraction but which can damage refining equipment. Exports through the Druzhba pipeline that transports oil to Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Ukraine and Belarus were halted. The Baltic port of Ust Luga loaded some 15 cargoes or 1.5 million tonnes of the contaminated oil for Western buyers. At least 6 cargoes that sailed from Ust Luga remain unsold, according the trading sources. Glencore is stuck with 500,000 tonnes in one very large crude carrier (VLCC) Amyntas and two smaller tankers - Searanger and Searuby, according to the sources and Refinitiv Eikon vessel tracking system. BP has tried to sell its cargo Fsl Shanghai at a tender earlier this month but failed, according to the same traders. BP and Glencore both bought the oil from Russian state oil major Rosneft. BP and Glencore declined to comment. Rosneft did not respond to a Reuters request to comment. They cannot claim compensation until they sell the oil. “You can’t file a claim against Russia until you have actually sold your oil and counted your losses,”

 South Sudan Makes New Oil Discovery in Adar-- South Sudan has made a new crude find in the northern oilfields of Adar and plans production by the end of the year, Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth said. The oil will be linked to the nearby Paloch oilfields that are managed by Dar Petroleum Operating Co., Lueth said Monday by phone from the capital, Juba. Petroleum Minister Awow Daniel Chuang announced the discovery to the cabinet on Friday, Lueth said. “It will start as soon as they finish connectivity and the production will likely begin towards the end of this year,” Lueth said, without giving further details. “This is a new discovery and hence people will have to do so many things in order get to production. It needs a pipeline to connect it to the main pipe.” Ruined by war, South Sudan is trying to recover by resuming crude production. Output has increased to 180,000 barrels per day from 130,000 barrels per day during its five-year civil war.

Qatar may be losing the top spot as world's biggest LNG exporter - Qatar will lose its title as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) within the next year, as Australia ramps up production on a slew of multi-billion dollar export projects. “Australia and Qatar continued to jostle for the title of the world’s largest LNG exporter over the first five months of 2019,” the Australian government said in a recent report. Australia exported more LNG than Qatar in November 2018 and April 2019. But now, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) says Australia is on track to consistently export more LNG than Qatar, as recently commissioned projects such as Wheatstone, Ichthys, and Prelude ramp up production. Prelude, Royal Dutch Shell’s floating LNG facility in a remote field northeast of Broome in Western Australia, shipped its first LNG cargo to customers in Asia in June. The landmark facility, capable of holding 175 Olympic-sized swimming pools of LNG in its storage tanks alone, was the last of eight new LNG projects that came online in Australia between 2012 and 2018. The new facilities have pushed Australia’s export capacity from 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2011 to more than 11.4 bcf/d in 2019. The EIA says Australia has already surpassed Qatar in LNG production capacity. More supply will pressure spot prices The ramp up of new capacity and exports combined with fragile demand from key customers in Japan, China and South Korea has resulted in a drastic decline in spot LNG prices since late 2018.

 China's petrochemical expansion to overwhelm Japan, South Korea producers - (Reuters) - A massive surge in China’s manufacturing capacity for paraxylene, a petrochemical used to make textile fibers and bottles, could force leading exporters in Japan and South Korea to cut production as early as the second quarter of 2020. China will add about 10 million tones of paraxylene manufacturing capacity from March 2019 to March 2020, according to company reports and officials, that is enough for making 22 trillion 500-milliliter plastic bottles. The world’s top consumer of paraxylene (PX), China imports 60% of its need for the chemical to feed polyester demand that has more than doubled since 2010. Over half of China’s PX imports come from South Korea and Japan and the new capacity is expected to cut Chinese imports by about 50%. Without Chinese demand, the profit margins for regional manufacturers such as Japan’s JXTG Holdings Inc (5020.T), South Korea’s Lotte Chemical (011170.KS) and Hyundai Cosmo Petrochemical and domestic producer Dalian Fujia are expected to drop further, likely causing a rollback in output and decline in earnings. “We will see drastic cutbacks in PX operating rates among many Asian exporters, and potential capacity rationalization in sites where integrated refining-aromatics margins are poor,” said Darryl Xu, principal analyst for Asia chemicals at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Private companies are leading China’s latest PX boom through a string of projects often integrated with big oil refineries which make them more cost competitive and flexible. China’s Hengli Group launched in March a PX plant capable of producing 4.5 million tonne per year (tpy) in the city of Dalian and Zhejiang Petrochemical is slated to start a 4 million tpy plant in Zhoushan late in 2019. In July, Shandong-based Hongrun Petrochemical began trial runs at its 700,000 tpy plant and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp, or Sinopec (0386.HK), will start a plant in Hainan producing 1 million tpy in the third quarter.

China-Owned Tanker Carrying 2M Barrels Of Iranian Oil Caught 'Ghosting' --China continues to play a large part in preventing Trump's desire to take Iran's crude exports down to zero, despite a noticeable drop on its Iran oil imports over the summer after the end of the US waiver program; however, more evidence has emerged that the sanctions evasion continues. A Chinese owned tanker believed carrying about 2 million barrels of oil has been caught 'ghosting' according to ship tracking data:While in the Indian Ocean heading toward the Strait of Malacca, the very large crude carrier (VLCC) Pacific Bravo went dark on June 5, shutting off the transponder that signals its position and direction to other ships, ship-tracking data showed.Reuters says an American official has put ports in Asia on notice, warning them not to allow the Pacific Bravo to dock in violation of US sanctions.  Besides 'ghosting' — a common tactic used in Iran sanctions busting — the tanker also appears to have tried concealing its identity with a name change, on July 18 suddenly presenting on global trackers as the VLCC Latin Ventura and appearing off Port Dickson, Malaysia.Tracking data shows this was nearly 1000 miles from where the Pacific Bravo had last been signalling. Reuters describes the gambit was easily uncovered, with US authorities accusing the ship of evading sanctions:But both the Latin Venture and the Pacific Bravo transmitted the same unique identification number, IMO9206035, issued by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), according to data from information provider Refinitiv and VesselsValue, a company that tracks ships and vessel transactions... Since IMO numbers remain with a ship for life, this indicated the Latin Venture and the Pacific Bravo were the same vessel and suggested the owner was trying to evade Iranian oil sanctions.

US Sanctions Force Iran to Ditch Cleaner Fuels Push-- Iran is about to burn a lot more fuel oil as a result of U.S. sanctions and new global shipping rules, reversing the nation’s progress in switching to cleaner-burning natural gas. Power plants and other industrial facilities will burn more than 200,000 barrels a day of highly polluting fuel oil next year, double the amount Iran used in 2018, according to a forecast by Iain Mowat of consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Iran produces a surplus of fuel oil, and the excess has swelled since the U.S. began restricting the OPEC member’s exports last year. Sanctions also prevent Iran from importing the equipment it would need to refine the heavy oil product into less-polluting products like gasoline and, even if they find a way building refineries takes time. The situation will only worsen once the International Maritime Organization restricts the use of high-sulfur fuel oil for most vessels starting Jan. 1. Commercial ships and power stations are the two main sources of demand for fuel oil. By curbing the shipping industry’s appetite, the UN agency’s new measure will leave Iran little choice but to burn more fuel oil at home to generate electricity. Iranians “will have no choice but to dump it at whatever low price they can get for it, cut back on refining or use it themselves,” said Robin Mills, chief executive officer of Dubai-based consultant Qamar Energy. Since anyone buying Iranian fuel oil would run afoul of U.S. sanctions, even rock-bottom prices might not be enough to stimulate sales, he said. Iran is a prime candidate for flouting the next year’s new IMO rules by using high-sulfur fuel oil in its own fleet, Mills said. International ports, however, have arranged for harsh penalties for violators. Iran’s government says it wants to build new refineries to process fuel oil into other products. Although refineries typically take four years to complete, Tehran is hoping for faster results, said Sakineh Almasi, a spokeswoman for the parliamentary energy commission, according to the parliament’s Icana news service. Almasi didn’t say how the government plans to work around U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, Iran’s storage facilities for oil and fuel are filling up fast. Because the government prefers to reserve precious spare storage capacity for higher-value products such as condensate, it can’t accumulate surplus fuel oil for long, Mills said.

OPEC Turns Bearish On Oil - OPEC sees a “somewhat bearish” outlook for the rest of 2019, even as supplies remain tight in the short run. In its latest report, OPEC only slightly downgraded its forecast for global oil demand, lowering it to 1.10 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2019, down only a minor 0.04 mb/d from a month earlier. That estimate could end up being too optimistic, and OPEC itself said the forecast is “subject to downside risks stemming from uncertainties with regard to global economic development.” Notably, OPEC said that global supply could grow by 1.97 mb/d this year, significantly outpacing demand growth. Still, that figure is down by 72,000 bpd from a previous estimate, due to lower-than-expected production growth in the U.S., Brazil, Thailand and Norway. In another worrying sign of a brewing supply surplus, OPEC said that oil inventories in OECD countries rose by 31.8 million barrels in June from a month earlier, rising to 67 million barrels above the five-year average. In other words, just as OPEC+ was meeting to extend the production cuts for another 9 months, inventories were rising, an indication of an oversupplied market. On a slightly positive note (for OPEC), the group revised up demand for its crude by 0.1 mb/d for both 2019 and for 2020. Still, it said that demand for its oil, often referred to as the “call on OPEC,” would drop to 29.4 mb/d in 2020, down from 30.7 mb/d this year. Based on those numbers, OPEC+ is staring down a serious supply glut next year absent further action. The group can either stick with current production levels and risk another market downturn, or it can swallow further production cuts.

Oil market starts to rebalance at lower prices- Kemp -  (Reuters) - Global oil consumption is falling at the fastest rate for almost five years as manufacturing activity and trade flows slip around the world and vehicle production tumbles. Consumption in the top 18 consuming countries, each using more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), fell by almost 0.2% in the three months between March and May compared with the same period a year earlier. Oil use is falling at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2014, according to national government data submitted to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. Falling consumption five years ago, combined with surging U.S. shale output and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut production, led to the price slump in 2014-2016. This time around, consumption has also stalled, and shale output is surging again, but Saudi production cuts have limited the fall in prices. Front-month Brent futures prices have so far fallen by $27 per barrel, or just over 30%, from their recent peak compared with a decline of almost $90 - or 77% - between June 2014 and January 2016. Like the earlier episode, however, a sustained period of lower prices will be needed to curb shale production growth and make consumption more affordable to restore market balance. The adjustment is already underway, with the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States down by almost 120, or 13%, over the last nine months (https://tmsnrt.rs/2ZbDOKZ).  U.S. crude oil production growth has decelerated to a year-on-year rate of around 1.6 million bpd, down from more than 2.0 million bpd at the end of 2018. As a rule of thumb, it takes 3-4 months for a change in benchmark oil prices to filter through to U.S. drilling rates and 9-12 months to affect production. 

Oil up after drone attack on Saudi field, but OPEC report caps gains - Crude oil prices rose on Monday following a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists and as traders looked for signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Price gains were, however, capped to some degree by an unusually downbeat OPEC report that stoked concerns about growth in oil demand. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, was up 67 cents, or 1.1%, at $59.31 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1.4%, at $55.63 a barrel. A drone attack by Yemen’s Houthi group on an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia on Saturday caused a fire at a gas plant, adding to Middle East tensions, but state-run Saudi Aramco said oil production was not affected. “The oil market seems to be pricing in again a geopolitical risk premium following the weekend drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, but the premium might not sustain if it does not result in any supply disruptions,” said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS. Iran-related tensions appeared to ease after Gibraltar released an Iranian tanker it seized in July, though Tehran warned the United States against any new attempt to seize the tanker in open seas. Concerns about a recession also limited crude price gains.

Oil rises 2% after attack on Saudi field, stimulus expectations (Reuters) - Oil prices gained roughly 2% on Monday after a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemen’s Houthi forces threatened crude supplies and as traders looked for signs that top economies would take measures to counteract a global slowdown. Brent crude LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, settled at $59.74 a barrel, rising $1.10, or 1.88%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 settled at $56.21 a barrel, up $1.34, or 2.44%. Signs of a slight softening of the trade war between the United States and China, including Washington extending a reprieve that permits China’s Huawei Technologies HWT.UL to buy components from U.S. companies, also helped oil prices. A drone attack by the Houthi group on an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia on Saturday caused a fire at a gas plant, adding to Middle East tensions, but state-run Saudi Aramco said oil production was not affected. “The oil market seems to be pricing in again a geopolitical risk premium following the weekend drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, but the premium might not sustain if it does not result in any supply disruptions,” said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS.  Iran-related tensions appeared to ease after Gibraltar released an Iranian tanker it seized in July, with the vessel sailing for Greece, though Tehran warned the United States against any new attempt to seize the tanker in open seas.

Oil rises slightly as hopes of easing trade tensions lend support - Oil prices steadied on Tuesday on optimism U.S.-China trade tensions will ease and hopes major economies will take stimulus measures to ward off a possible economic slowdown, after falling earlier on concerns over future demand. Brent crude rose 3 cents to $59.77 a barrel by 12:10 p.m. EDT (1510 GMT), while U.S. crude was down 11 cents at $56.10 a barrel. Both contracts had traded lower earlier in the session. The United States said it would extend a reprieve that permits China’s Huawei Technologies to buy components from U.S. companies, signaling a slight softening of the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. “It’s the ebbing and flowing of the U.S.-China trade war and some hope of economic stimulus that’s coming at these markets, including potential fiscal stimulus by the Germans,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York. Concerns over the overall level of demand for oil continue to weigh on crude prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.10 million bpd and indicated the market would be in slight surplus in 2020. A rally in equity markets around the world on growing expectations that global economies will take action against slowing growth also gave oil prices a floor.

 Oil Markets On Edge Over Trade War Uncertainty - Oil prices rose slightly on Monday after a Houthi drone attack on a Saudi oil field led to concerns about geopolitical unrest. That trend reversed on Tuesday however after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued harsh comments about Huawei and the threat of China.  An analysis from Raymond James found that top CEOs at U.S. oil and gas firms have sold an average of $4 million worth of stock in their own companies over the past five years, at a time when they talk up their stocks to investors.   Bakken flaring has spiked as production of both oil and gas rises amid a pipeline bottleneck. Drillers are now flaring roughly 24 percent of the gas produced in the Bakken, which is twice as high as state limits.  China’s CNPC suspended oil purchases in August from Venezuela following stricter U.S. sanctions. “We were told that China oil will not load any oil in August. We don’t know what will happen after,” a source told Reuters.  Bloomberg reports that Saudi Aramco has picked Lazard Ltd. and Moelis & Co. to advise the company on its IPO.   In a blow to the Trump administration’s efforts to slash fuel economy standards, Mercedes-Benz is preparing to join four other automakers in agreeing to the stricter fuel economy standards laid out by California. The New York Times also reported that the policy process within the Trump administration is in disarray. The balking of top automakers and the internal disorder could imperil the deregulation effort.   The U.S. government extended waivers on sanctions on companies doing business with Huawei, viewed as a conciliatory gesture towards China. Fears of an economic recession seem to have the Trump administration concerned, and top U.S. officials have talked up trade negotiations. The Trump administration is also reportedly exploring a payroll tax amid growing concerns about the economy.    The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe has asked a judge to toss out a federal permit for the Dakota Access pipeline, due to lack of consultation. The issue comes as the pipeline’s owner, Energy Transfer Partners. hopes to double the pipeline’s capacity. Meanwhile, several Democratic presidential candidates vowed to revoke the pipeline’s permits if they became president.   . The number of oil and gas wells completed in Texas declined by 12 percent in the first 7 months of 2019 compared to the same period a year earlier. Permits to drill new wells also declined by 14 percent. Slower activity has been a blow for oilfield services companies. 

Front-month oil futures settle higher, with data expected to reveal a weekly decline in U.S. crude supplies - Front-month oil futures contracts settled higher for a third straight session on Tuesday, ahead of U.S. government data that are expected to reveal a weekly decline in domestic crude stockpiles, following back-to-back weekly supply increases. Prices also climbed on Monday, with that rally partly fueled by reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a drone attack over the weekend on one of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil fields.“Crude’s trading path over the next 48 hours should be heavily influenced by U.S. inventories once again, especially given the turn towards crude storage builds in recent weeks,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. The U.S. government has reported crude supply increases in each of the last two weeks. “Consensus market estimates have called for a slight draw” from American Petroleum Institute numbers due out late Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s “more definitive” Energy Information Administration report, said Fraser, in daily commentary. “However, as WTI’s discount to Brent narrows, U.S. exports could be challenged, leaving more supply to be absorbed by a U.S. refining sector that is nearing the end of the peak demand season.” West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery tacked on 13 cents, or 0.2%, to finish at $56.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, shaking off earlier losses. The front-month contract, which expired at the end of the day’s regular trading session, gained 2.4% on Monday. The most-active, and new front-month October WTI contract shed a penny to settle at $56.13.  The October contract for global benchmark Brent crude edged 29 cents, or 0.5%, higher at $60.03 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with prices settling back above $60 for the first time in a week. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts expect the EIA on Wednesday to report a fall of 3.1 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended August 16, along with supply declines of 1.6 million for gasoline and 200,000 barrels for distillates, which include heating oil.

WTI Hovers At $56 As Algos Unimpressed By Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Draw -- Oil prices dumped and pumped after US SecState Pompeo raised more uncertainty about MidEast and China during an interview with CNBC this morning. WTI did recover back to $56 by the NYMEX close ahead of the inventory data. “The weakening global economic backdrop continues to control the narrative across equities and other asset classes and the oil market is certainly not being spared,” said Michael Tran, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets. API

• Crude -3.454mm (-1.8mm exp)
• Cushing -2.803mm - biggest draw since Feb 2018
• Gasoline -403k
• Distillates +1.806mm

After two weekly builds, API reports a bigger than expected crude draw, with Cushing stocks plunging most since Feb 2018...  WTI hovered around $56 ahead of the data, dipped very modestly after but was basically unimpressed...

WTI Slides After Crude Inventories Drawdown Less Than Hoped -  Oil prices held on to gains overnight after a surprisingly large crude draw reported by API (though crude is down about 18% from its late April highs as the trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s biggest economies, weighs on demand.). “The drawdown will certainly help support sentiment,” said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. “But the market is definitely taking the glass-half-empty type approach to data.” DOE:

• Crude -2.73mm (-1.8mm exp)
• Cushing -2.485mm
• Gasoline +312k
• Distillates +2.61mm

After two weeks of unexpected builds, crude inventories drew down more than expected last week (though less than API reported) but Gasoline and Distillates stocks rose more than expected... Despite the ongoing collapse in the oil rig count, US crude production remains near record highs...

Oil rises as US crude inventories fall - Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a big drawdown in domestic crude stockpiles, but rises in refined product inventories limited price gains, as did lingering worries about the global economy. Brent crude futures rose 1.2%, to $60.72 a barrel. It reached a session high of $61.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.5%, to $56.42 a barrel, after hitting $57.13 a barrel. Prices pared gains after inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed builds in gasoline and distillate stocks. Crude stockpiles decreased by 2.7 million barrels in the week to Aug. 16, the data showed, a bigger drawdown than the 1.9 million barrels that analysts had forecast. Gasoline stocks rose by 312,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles gained by 2.6 million barrels “It looks like gasoline demand has peaked for the season, and will only trend lower from here,” said John Kilduff, partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital Management in New York. Tensions between the United States and Iran remained in focus. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that if Iran’s oil exports are cut to zero, international waterways will not have the same security as before, cautioning Washington against tightening pressure on Tehran. The comment coincided with a remark by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif that Tehran might act “unpredictably” in response to U.S. policies under President Donald Trump.

U.S. oil prices settle lower as crude supplies log first weekly slump in 3 weeks   -- U.S. oil futures settled lower Wednesday after the government reported a weekly decrease in domestic crude supplies, the first in three weeks, but smaller than the market expected. Concerns over energy demand also continued to pressure prices. Looking at the inventory data from a trend standpoint, “it appears the stretch of steep draws in crude supply, which were offering fundamental price support to the oil market earlier in the summer, have abruptly ended according to the last three EIA reports, as stockpiles have actually risen modestly since late July,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “Demand concerns linked to a potential global economic slowdown remain the No. 1 headwind for oil right now,” he added. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery, +0.36% fell by 45 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $55.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following gains in each of the last three trading sessions. It was at $56.77 shortly before the supply data. The October contract for global benchmark Brent crude BRNV19, +0.52%, however, rose 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $60.30 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. On Tuesday, Brent finished above $60 for the first time in a week. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 2.7 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 16. That followed increases in each of the previous two weeks. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts, on average, expected a decline of 3.1 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a 3.5 million-barrel decrease. The EIA data also showed that inventories of gasoline edged up by 300,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 2.6 million barrels last week. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for a supply decreases of 1.6 million barrels for gasoline and 200,000 barrels for distillates. On Nymex, September gasoline rose 1.3 cents, or 0.8%, to $1.6938 a gallon, while September heating oil added nearly half a cent, or 0.2%, to $1.8573 a gallon.  Also on Nymex, September natural gas fell 4.8 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $2.17 per million British thermal units. A report from the EIA due Thursday is expected to show a 61-billion-cubic-foot climb in last week’s U.S. natural-gas inventories, according to analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Oil prices saw little reaction to the Wednesday release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting. Fed officials shied away from saying how many more easing steps they might be willing to support this year. Some officials said the Fed had to remain “flexible” and focused on the economic data given the risks weighing on the economy.

 Oil slips below $60, Jackson Hole summit in focus - Oil slipped below $60 a barrel on Thursday despite a drop in U.S. crude inventories and OPEC-led supply cuts as worries about the global economy weighed on crude prices. Brent crude fell 45 cents to $59.85 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 42 cents to $55.26. Traders on Thursday parsed through commentary from Federal Reserve officials delivered from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Both Kansas City Federal Reserve President and Philadelphia President told CNBC they don’t believe further interest rate cuts are needed, fostering fears that the central bank won’t come to the rescue if the U.S. economy decelerates. Still, the losses were limited given inventories data. “Today prices are basically unchanged in the same relatively small range,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix. “The focus now is going to be on Jackson Hole, I think, to the end of the week.” U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels last week, more than analysts expected. Still, the U.S. Energy Information Administration also said gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The price of Brent is up by 12 percent this year, supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and export cuts in Iran and Venezuela which are under U.S. sanctions. Iran on Wednesday said if its oil exports are cut to zero, international waterways would not have the same security as before, cautioning Washington against raising pressure on Tehran. Still, lingering fears about slowdown in economic growth amid the U.S.-China trade dispute and Brexit has been pressuring prices and forecasters such as the International Energy Agency have been lowering forecasts for world oil demand.

 Oil Prices Rise On Stock Drawdown, Iran-West Tensions - Oil prices rose on Thursday after U.S. government data showed a drawdown in domestic crude stocks. Benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.75 percent to $60.74 a barrel, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 0.7 percent at $56.08 per barrel. Data released by Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 2.7 million barrels in the week ended August 16, after registering increases in the previous two weeks. However, gasoline inventories were up 300,000 barrels last week and distillate stockpiles increased by 2.6 million barrels. Oil markets also remained supported by simmering tensions between the United States and Iran, with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani striking a muscular tone on dealings with the United States. In a speech in Tehran during the unveiling of the Bavar-373, Rouhani said that talks are useless when enemies do not accept logic. Iran's state TV reported that the Bavar-373 is able to recognize up to 100 targets at a same time and confront them with six different weapons.

 Oil slips 0.6% as global growth fears, Fed comments weigh on crude - Oil prices weakened on Thursday as worries about the global economy weighed and equity markets were under pressure as uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts left investors on edge. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 33 cents to $55.35 per barrel while Brent crude lost 39 cents to $59.91. Traders are awaiting a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that could indicate whether the U.S. central bank will continue to cut interest rates. “The market will be shifting focus today to broader based macro headlines with comments out of Jackson Hole likely to be prioritized in this regard,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates. “While we are not expecting any dramatic developments capable of swinging the equities either way by more than 1% or so, we feel that current bullish momentum in the oil market could allow the energy complex to absorb bearish guidance much easier than any negative Jackson Hole guidance that may be forthcoming.” U.S. stocks turned lower on Thursday as the first contraction in the manufacturing sector in nearly a decade and after Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that he does not see the case for additional stimulus. The Jackson Hole speech is important for oil as signals from the Fed on monetary easing affect the U.S. dollar. A weaker U.S. currency tends to support oil prices, and the dollar eased on Thursday against a basket of currencies. Concerns over the impact of the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing on the U.S. economic expansion, the longest on record, prompted the Fed to cut interest rates last month for the first time since 2008. The prolonged trade spat has sparked worries about growth in oil demand. Forecasters such as the International Energy Agency have been lowering forecasts for world oil demand. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he was “the chosen one” to address trade imbalances with China, even as congressional researchers warned his tariffs would reduce U.S. economic output by 0.3% in 2020.

Oil plunges 3% as new China tariffs dent global growth expectations - Crude prices plunged on Friday after China unveiled new tariffs on U.S. goods, dampening expectations of global economic growth. U.S. oil traded 3.2% lower, or $1.76 at $53.58 per barrel and reached its lowest level in a week. Brent oil fell 2%, or $1.19 to trade at $$58.75 per barrel. China said it will slap tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. imports ranging from 5% to 10%. The tariffs will take effect in two batches on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. The goods targeted by China in these tariffs include autos. Earlier in the day, crude prices were up slightly while investors awaited clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. A speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday at a meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is expected to provide clues on whether the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the world’s largest economy. Traders’ expectations of further U.S. monetary easing were clouded by comments from two Fed officials on Wednesday who said they do not see a case for a rate cut now. “If Powell talks about lower for longer and reverses some of the hawkish comments that we heard from Fed members earlier this week, we could see it supporting oil,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Oil Prices Mixed for the Week - WTI and Brent crude futures declined Friday, but the Brent managed to show a slight week-on-week increase. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures declined Friday, but the latter benchmark nevertheless showed a slight week-on-week increase. The October WTI contract price lost $1.18 Friday to settle at $54.17 per barrel. It peaked at $55.60 and bottomed out at $53.24 during the late-week session. Compared to the August 16 close, the WTI is down 1.3 percent. Brent crude oil for October delivery posted a more modest decline Friday, falling 58 cents to end the day at $59.34 per barrel. Week-on-week, the Brent is up 1.2 percent. “Same old song, new verse,” commented Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Business at the University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business. “After higher prices Monday fueled by optimism about the U.S./China trade war, oil prices traded in a fairly tight range this week until today.” Both the WTI and Brent declined amid an escalation the bilateral trade dispute, with China unveiling new tariffs to be imposed on copper and crude oil imports, Seng explained. He added that the crude tariff announcement applied more downward pressure on crude in an oil market already facing concerns about global demand growth. “The ‘tit-for-tat’ tariff impositions by the U.S. and China have turned the global economy on its head with the U.S. stock market getting thumped today after a ripple effect of this latest announcement moved across the globe overnight,” said Seng.  Seng also pointed out the latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed:

• A 2.7 million-barrel (Bbl) decline in commercial crude stocks – far higher than Wall Street Journal analysts’ forecast of a 1.5 million-Bbl draw but lower than the 3.5 million-Bbl draw reported Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute
• A total of 438 million Bbl of crude in storage – two percent above the five-year average for this time of year
• 42 million Bbl of crude in storage at the Cushing, Okla., hub, reflecting 55 percent of capacity there and a 2.5 million-Bbl week-on-weed decline
• A 1.1-percent increase in refinery utilization to 17.7 million Bbl per day (bpd), or 95.9 percent, that contributed to a drawdown in stocks
• An 11-percent year-on-year decrease in crude imports
• Steady U.S. oil production at 12.3 million bpd for another week       

Chaotic & Unpredictable - Iran Vows Oil Routes Won't Be Safe If It Can't Export -- The White House policy of taking Iranian oil exports to "zero" still has a long way to go, thanks in no small part to China, and also despite Pompeo touting this week that US sanctions have removed nearly 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil from global markets.  US frustration was evident upon the release of the Adrian Darya 1, with Gibraltar resisting Washington pressures to hand over the Iranian vessel, given as its en route to Greece, American officials are now warning that they will sanction anyone who touches the tanker.    Seizing on Washington's frustration as part of its own "counter-pressure" campaign of recent weeks, Iran has again stated if it can't export its own oil, it will make waterways unsafe and "unpredictable" for anyone else to to so.  “World powers know that in the case that oil is completely sanctioned and Iran’s oil exports are brought down to zero, international waterways can’t have the same security as before,” President Hassan Rouhani said while meeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Khamenei’s official website. The provocative statements corresponded with similar remarks from Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who also warned Tehran might act “unpredictably” in response to “unpredictable” US policies under Trump, according to Reuters.  Zarif made the statements in a speech at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) while on a broader tour of European countries urging leaders to resist US sanctions threats and abide by commitments under the JCPOA: “Mutual unpredictability will lead to chaos. President Trump cannot expect to be unpredictable and expect others to be predictable. Unpredictability will lead to mutual unpredictability and unpredictability is chaotic,” Zarif said. Iran's military has repeatedly said it alone can secure the vital Strait of Hormuz tanker route, while at the same time warning any outside 'maritime coalition' patrols would be seen as an act of aggression, especially involving the US or Israel.

Iran tanker heads to Greece, U.S. warns against helping vessel - (Reuters) - An Iranian tanker at the center of an angry confrontation between Iran and Washington sailed for Greece on Monday after it was freed from detention off Gibraltar, as Washington called the release unfortunate and warned Greece and Mediterranean ports against helping the vessel. Tehran said any U.S. move to seize the vessel again would have “heavy consequences”. While Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif appeared to downplay the possibility of military conflict with Washington in an interview on U.S. television, he also indicated on a visit to Finland that Washington was seeking “more escalation”. The Grace 1, renamed the Adrian Darya 1, left anchorage off Gibraltar about 11 p.m. (2100 GMT) on Sunday. Refinitiv ship tracking data showed on Monday that the vessel was heading to Kalamata in Greece and was scheduled to arrive next Sunday at 0000 GMT. The seizure of the tanker by British Royal Marines near Gibraltar in July 4 on suspicion of carrying oil to Syria in violation of European Union sanctions led to a weeks-long confrontation between Tehran and the West. It also heightened tensions on international oil shipping routes through the Gulf. Gibraltar, a British overseas territory, lifted the detention order on Thursday. But the next day, a federal court in Washington issued a warrant for the seizure of the tanker, the oil it carries and nearly $1 million.

U.S. Warns Mediterranean Ports Against Aiding Iranian Tanker - The United States has issued a warning to Greece as well as to all ports in the Mediterranean Sea about providing assistance to an Iranian tanker that Washington suspects of transporting oil to Syria and having ties to a sanctioned organization, Reuters reported, citing a U.S. State Department official. Any aid would be interpreted as providing material support to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which Washington considers a foreign terrorist organization. Facilitating the tanker carries potential immigration and criminal consequences, the unidentified U.S. State Department official said on August 19. The warning concerns the Adrian Darya 1, formerly known as Grace 1, a supertanker that left Gibraltar on August 19 after spending 45 days in detention over British suspicions that it was violating European Union sanctions on Syria. Officials in Gibraltar on August 18 rejected a U.S. request to seize the tanker, letting it sail with $130 million worth of crude oil. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the tanker's release was "unfortunate" in an August 19 interview on Fox News Channel. If Iran turns a profit from the tanker's load, the IRGC will have "more money, more wealth, more resources to continue their terror campaign," Pompeo said. Online vessel-tracking sites like Refinitiv show the vessel is heading toward Kalamata, Greece, and is scheduled to arrive on August 25. 

Another Tanker With Iranian Oil Now Headed For Syria, Intel Sources Say -- A new report suggests we could be headed toward yet another Grace 1-type incident and showdown involving an Iranian tanker intercept by US or UK forces.A tanker full of Iranian oil is said to be currently on its way to Dubai, with an ultimate offload destination of its 600,000 barrels of oil in Syria. According to the breaking Fox report, citing unnamed Western intelligence sources: The Bonita Queen loaded 600,000 barrels of crude oil on August 2 near the Iranian coast at Kharg Island. Shortly after, the tanker was de-flagged by the country of St. Kitts and Nevis, fearing retaliatory U.S. sanctions. The vessel is now headed to Dubai, where it will refuel before beginning a months-long journey around the horn of Africa, through the Mediterranean and to the shores of Syria. The Bonita Queen, according to its reported route, intends to link up with two Syrian-owned tankers in the Mediterranean in the coming months, where it will conduct a ship-to-ship transfer of the Iran-sourced crude.   Analysts have claimed to identify the Syrian tankers as the "Kader" and "Jasmine" — described as owned by a businessman said to be close to Assad, Muhammad al-Qatirji. Qatirji and his firm, the Qatirji Company, are under sanction by the US Treasury.  The news comes just as the newly released from Gibraltar/UK custody Iran-flagged Adrian Darya, previously called the Grace 1, is on the move and is headed to waters off Greece.

 Iran Oil Tanker Makes Distress Call-- The Iranian oil carrier Helm experienced technical issues in the Red Sea off the Saudi port of Yanbu and the crew is working to resolve the issues, according to the National Iranian Tanker Co. The vessel, one of the world’s largest crude tankers, signaled distress at 6:30 a.m. Iran time on Tuesday, about 75 miles (about 121 kilometers) off of Yanbu, owner NITC said in a statement. Both the ship and crew are safe and stable, NITC said without saying whether the Helm can continue the voyage. Iran’s tanker fleet is under global scrutiny amid U.S. sanctions seeking to choke off the country’s crude sales. The U.S. failed in efforts to seize a loaded supertanker allegedly bound for Syria that had been blocked in Gibraltar for more than a month. That vessel, the Adrian Darya 1, is now sailing east in the Mediterranean and signaling Greece, potentially to transfer crude to other ships. Another tanker loaded crude this month in Iran with the aim of delivering oil to Syria, Fox News reported, citing unidentified intelligence officials. Iranian tankers have turned off their satellite transponders intermittently in an apparent attempt to mask their voyages to supply crude. The Helm appears to have used that strategy since loading some crude in Iran in May. It’s unclear when the Helm entered the Red Sea or what was the ship’s last port of call, based on tanker-tracking data available on Bloomberg. Until this week when the vessel made the distress call, the tanker’s last known position was in the Persian Gulf in May when satellite signals showed the tanker was half full and heading for the Suez canal.

Houthi Drone Attack Sets Saudi Oil Field On Fire --A drone attack by the Yemeni Houthis caused fire at an oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom’s Energy Minister said as quoted by the Saudi Press Agency.Khalid al-Falih also said the damage caused by the explosive-laden drones was limited to a processing unit of the natural gas processing plant at the Shaybah field.The Yemeni rebel group had earlier said it was using 10 drones to attack the Shaybah field in what they said was the “biggest attack in the depths” of Saudi Arabia yet, as per a Reuters report on the event. The Shaybah field lies about 600 miles from the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen.The Saudi Press Agency quoted Al-Falih as referring to the event as a “terroristic attack” and noting it had resulted in no casualties and had had no effect on Saudi oil and gas production or exports.The minister also said, as quoted by the SPA, that “these attacks not only target Saudi Arabia, but also the global energy security of supply and through that the global economy, demonstrating once again the imperative for the global community to confront all terrorist entities that carry out such acts of sabotage, including the Houthi militias in Yemen.” This is by far not the first attack on Saudi oil and gas infrastructure by the Iran-affiliated Houthi rebels. Earlier this year, the group said it had a list of 300 military targets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, including oil and gas infrastructure. Following this Saturday’s attack, the leader of the Houthis said “The drone operation today is an important warning to the Emirates,” as quoted by an Iran-affiliated news website.

Separatists Seize Military Bases in Yemen – Separatists in Yemen supported by the United Arab Emirates have seized military bases in Abyan province in the country’s south, just over a week after making similar advances in the port of Aden. On Tuesday, the militia—which represents the pro-secession Southern Transitional Council (STC)—again clashed with government forces, who are their supposed allies in the Saudi-led coalition against the rebel Houthi movement. The government has labeled their actions a “coup” attempt. The renewed fighting raises questions about the internationally-recognized government’s control over its remaining territory, particularly since the UAE began withdrawing some of its troops from the country earlier this month. The U.N. envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, said Tuesday that political fragmentation was becoming a greater threat. “The stakes are becoming too high for the future of Yemen,” he said.  The fighting between the separatists and government forces seems to reflect a growing rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE reduced its troops and allowed the southern militia to fill in—leaving behind potential competition. Now, an STC spokesman says that it refuses to withdraw from the military bases but is open to talks with the government.  Griffiths, the U.N. envoy, emphasized the urgent need to accelerate the peace process—something the UAE and Saudi Arabia appear to disagree over. The rising tensions between the southern separatists and the government could further jeopardize peace talks involving all parties in the ongoing conflict, including the Houthis.

Rebels claim to have shot down US drone in Yemen - Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed they shot down a US drone over the country's north, as a leading rights group said on Wednesday the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis killed at least 47 Yemeni fishermen in bombing attacks on fishing boats last year. Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Iran-backed Houthis, said in a statement their air defenses downed a US MQ-9 drone on Tuesday over the northern city of Dhamar."The rocket which hit it was developed locally and will be revealed soon at a press conference," he said.The US military's Central Command said in a statement that it was investigating the Houthi claims that they attacked an unmanned US drone "operating in authorised airspace" over Yemen. "We have been clear that Iran's provocative actions and support to militants and proxies, like the Iranian-backed Houthis, poses a serious threat to stability in the region and our partners," said US Army Lt. Col. Earl Brown, a Central Command spokesman.This was the second US drone allegedly downed by the Yemeni rebels. In June, the US said an MQ-9 Reaper was shot down by the Houthis. It said Iran helped the Yemeni rebels bring down the drone.For more than a decade, the US has waged a drone war against al-Qaida in Yemen, trying to eliminate one of the most dangerous branches of the terror network. Rights groups have criticized the attacks because of its civilian casualties. An Associated Press investigation found that at least 30 civilians were killed in such attacks in 2018. Also on Wednesday, Human Rights Watch said the Saudi-led coalition carried out at least five deadly attacks on Yemeni fishing boats in 2018, killing at least 47 Yemeni fishermen, including seven children.

Yemen threatens to act internationally to stop UAE support for separatists - The Yemeni government threatened, Wednesday, to take necessary measures following international law to ensure the suspension of the UAE’s support for separatists, the so-called Southern Transitional Council, a day after Yemen’s official accusation of Abu Dhabi before the UN Security Council of supporting the separatist insurgency in Aden.A statement by Yemen’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed Al-Hadhrami said: “The government is taking action to take the necessary measures per international law and the UN Charter to ensure the suspension of the UAE’s support for the Transitional Council, which has enabled the armed insurgency in Aden and Abyan.”Al-Hadhrami reiterated his appreciation of Saudi Arabia’s call for dialogue between the Yemeni government and the separatist council. But he said that the government would participate in any discussion with the “Transitional Council” only when it complies with the demands of the coalition and withdraws. Yemen’s announcement of its intention to act against the UAE came a day after the government officially accused the UAE of supporting the armed separatist insurgency in Aden. Yemen’s UN Permanent Representative, Ambassador Abdullah Al-Saadi, told the UN Security Council, Tuesday, that “without the full planning, execution and financial support of the UAE the military coup against the legitimate government in the city of Aden, would not have happened. We hold the UAE responsible for the repercussions of the armed insurgency.”

Explosion rocks arms depot north of Iraq's Baghdad -A blast has hit an arms depot belonging to Iranian-backed paramilitaries north of Baghdad, according to media reports.The site struck on Tuesday is close to the Balad Air Base, which hosts US forces and contractors and is located about 80km north of the Iraqi capital, in the Salahuddin province.The explosion is the latest in a series of mysterious blasts in recent weeks, targeting bases and warehouses belonging to groups under the umbrella of militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Some have been blamed on drone attacks, others on faulty storage.There was no immediate claim of responsibility for Tuesday's explosion.A military official told Reuters news agency the intended target was the militia's position near the base, while a paramilitary source said his group's weapons depot was specifically targeted by an aerial bombardment.Witnesses told Reuters the explosion caused stored rockets to fly into nearby orchards and into Balad base itself.Separately, a police source told Reuters news agency that the cause of the explosion was still unclear, adding that two fighters were killed and five were wounded.Last week, at least one person was killed and 29 others wounded after homes were damaged by an explosion at a weapons depot in Baghdad.   Some analysts have suggested the strikes might have been carried out by Israel, which last year signalled that it could attack suspected Iranian military assets in Iraq, as it has done with scores of air raids in Syria. "Iraq's air defences have very high capability, but one thing they couldn't detect is an advanced Israeli air attack," Baghdad-based security analyst Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises the government, told Reuters.

Mystery Airstrikes Rock Baghdad Base With US Forces Present; Deaths Reported — Another Shiite militia base near Baghdad has been attacked by airstrikes from an unknown source on Tuesday, one week after a huge blast ripped through a separate pro-Iran militia weapons storehouse near the Iraqi capital’s ‘Green Zone’.Arabic media published images of a massive cloud of smoke coming from the Balad Air Base (also known as al-Bakr base) north of Baghdad, with Iraqi officials confirming the airstrikes. The attack is already being blamed on Israel, and comes following Iraq late last week shutting down its airspace to all ‘unauthorized’ flights not specifically approved at the top levels of the Iraqi government and military.Military Times reported of Iraq’s closure of its airspace last Thursday: “U.S. military officials in Iraq will now seek out Iraqi approval before launching any air operations, a move made a day after that nation’s prime minister announced a ban of unauthorized flights, including those involving coalition forces fighting ISIS.” Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi had called for an end to all “unauthorized flights” including US drones, spy planes, jets, or helicopters. The directive demanded that all aerial vehicles comply with Iraqi law and operations must be under Iraqi government authorization.Crucially, Balad base – the location of the alleged new airstrikes – hosts US forces and contractors, according to Reuters. There are reports of an unknown number of fatalities at the installation which also hosts US-supplied Iraqi F-16 fighter jets.

Iraqi militias blame US and Israel for attacks on bases Iraq's paramilitary groups backed by Iran have blamed a series of recent blasts at their weapons depots and bases on the United States and Israel, vowing to defend themselves against any future attack. The statement on Wednesday came from the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), or Hashd al-Shaabi, the umbrella grouping of Iraq's mostly Shia militias. It said the US had allowed four Israeli drones to enter the region accompanying US forces and carry out missions on Iraqi territory. "We announce that the first and last entity responsible for what happened are the American forces, and we will hold them responsible for whatever happens from today onwards," said the statement, signed by the PMF's deputy head, Jamal Jaafar Ibrahimi, also known as Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes. The US-led coalition, in Iraq to fight remnants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS) group, dismissed the statement. "The mission of CJTF-OIR in Iraq is solely to enable our Iraqi Security Force partners in the mission of an enduring defeat of Daesh," it said, using an alternative name for ISIL. "We operate in Iraq at the invitation of the government of Iraq and comply with their laws and direction." The statements came a day after several blasts hit a position held by a PMF group next to Balad airbase, about 80km north of the capital, Baghdad.

Iraq Closes Airspace Even To US Coalition Flights After Suspected Israeli Raid - In what is a severely under reported but perhaps the most alarming development out of the Middle East this week, Iraq's government has said it's ready to down any aircraft violating its airspace amid a blanket ban on 'unauthorized' flights not specifically approved by the prime minister's office. Military Times reported the day after Iraq closed its airspace on Thursday: U.S. military officials in Iraq will now seek out Iraqi approval before launching any air operations, a move made a day after that nation’s prime minister announced a ban of unauthorized flights, including those involving coalition forces fighting ISIS.Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi called for an end to all “unauthorized flights” including US drones, spy planes, jets, or helicopters on Thursday. The directive demanded that all aerial vehicles comply with Iraqi law and operations must be under Iraqi government authorization. The US Coalition on Friday issued a statement saying that it is ready to comply with the order:  The US-led Coalition says it is complying with an order by Iraq's Prime Minister banning airspace access to international aircraft [following a recent claimed US or Israeli strike on an arms dump near Baghdad, which killed a civilian and destroyed c$100m of munitions] pic.twitter.com/qtafT7csEH  — Airwars (@airwars) August 16, 2019  The drastic Baghdad decision came after on Monday a massive blast ripped through a neighborhood in the city, which Iraqi officials believe was the result of an Israeli strike on a pro-Iranian militia ammunition depot.    The resulting fire had raged throughout the day not far from the 'Green Zone' and sent mortars and exploding munitions across the city, resulting in the death of at least one civilian and wounding of nearly 40 others, many of them children. The weapons base reportedly belonged to the pro-Iran Kataib Sayyid Al-Shuhada militia, and an estimated $110 million worth of munitions were wiped out.

Hundreds of ISIL Terrorists Preparing to Attack Mosul’s Nearby Cities (FNA)- A senior Kurdish militia commander warned against an imminent attack by several hundred ISIL terrorists, who are stationed in a region in Southern Mosul, on other cities of Nineveh province, the Arabic-language media outlets said. The Arabic-language al-Ma’aloumeh news website quoted Ghias al-Sourji as saying that around 400 to 500 ISIL terrorists together with their families are still present in Qara Joukh mountain near the city of Makhmour, South of Mosul. He pointed to the ISIL's recent increased movements in the region, and said that the presence of such a number of terrorists in Makhmour is a serious threat to Nineveh, Kirkuk and Erbil. There are reports that the terrorists stationed to the South of Mosul are getting prepared to penetrate into several Iraqi cities. In a relevant development earlier in August, a former Iraqi parliamentarian said that there are still hundreds of ISIL militants in Western Iraq even after the official declaration on the annihilation of the terrorist group. The Arabic-language website of the Russia Today quoted the former head of Iraqi Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee, Hakem al-Zameli, as saying that according to the accurate information of the Iraqi government, the total number of the ISIL’s active terrorists in Iraq currently stands at 1,500, who move between Iraq and Syria. Al-Zameli reiterated that the ISIL terrorists are deployed in desert regions, specially border regions between Iraq and Syria as well as the Hamrin mountains and areas under dispute by Iraq's Central government in Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government. In a relevant development in late June, a prominent Iraqi security expert warned of the US plot to transfer the ISIL terrorists to the bordering areas with Syria in collaboration with the two countries’ tribes. Al-Ma’aloumeh news website quoted Hossein al-Kanani as saying that the US attempts to transfer the ISIL terrorists to the bordering areas of Iraq and Syria and build safe shelters for them through coordination with a number of tribal leaders in the region. He referred to the recent attempts by US Ambassador to Baghdad Matthew Tueller to meet the Iraqi tribal leaders, and said other goals are also pursued by the measure, including targeting the Hashd al-Shaabi (Iraqi popular forces) and Iraqi security forces in these regions and cutting Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut connections by taking control over the Iraqi-Syrian borders.

Russia's Sound Proposal for Gulf Peace - There is an eminently reasonable and feasible way to avoid conflict in the Persian Gulf, and to secure peace. The principles of multilateralism and international law must be adhered to. It seems almost astounding that one has to appeal for such obvious basic norms. Fortunately, Russia has presented a roadmap for implementing a security concept in the vital waterway based on the above principles.Russia’s deputy envoy to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, outlined a possible international coalition to provide security for commercial shipping through the strategically important Persian Gulf. The narrow outlet accounts for up to 30 per cent of all globally shipped oil on a daily basis. Virtually every nation has a stake in the safe passage of tankers. Any disruption would have huge negative consequences for the world economy, impacting all nations.The Russian proposal, which has been submitted to the UN Security Council, is currently being considered by various parties. Crucially, the security concept put forward by Moscow relies on the participation of the Gulf n ations, including Iran. Rather than being led by an outside power, the Russian proposal envisages a region-led effort.This multilateral arrangement for cooperation between nations is solidly within the principles of the UN Charter and international law. Potentially, it can build trust and positive relations, and thereby reduce the climate of tensions and uncertainty which have intensified over recent months, primarily between the United States and Iran. One thing for sure is that the US proposal for a naval coalition led by Washington, purportedly to “protect shipping” in the Gulf, is a non-starter. Most nations have rebuffed the American plan. Germany, France and other European Union states have given it a resounding pass. Even Arab nations allied with the US, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have demurred on the idea. Significantly, too, the Gulf states have refrained from following Washington’s line of fingering Iran for the unknown sabotage incidents. After weeks of lobbying for its US-led “navy coalition”, Washington appears to have recruited just two other partners: Britain and Israel. The term “coalition” is therefore a misnomer in this context. It also has no credibility as a force serving to uphold international law and security. The position of the US-led axis is one of outright hostility towards Iran. It is premised on the flawed assumption that Iran is the “problem”.

 Sudan opposition leaders form government with the army - The Force for Freedom and Change (FFC), an umbrella group of opposition groups, have signed a power-sharing agreement with the Transitional Military Council (TMC), Sudan’s military junta. The agreement reached on Saturday August 17, was initialed just days after the TMC gunned down school children in El-Obeid. It gives free rein to the military and security forces, which ousted long-term dictator President Omar al-Bashir in April to prevent the overthrow of the entire regime, to rule Sudan under the guise of a civilian “government” but on behalf of the tiny venal elite that has controlled the country since independence in 1956. The agreement was met with a palpable sense of relief in Western and regional capitals that eight months of mass protests may now finally be over. It is a shameless betrayal of the movement which brought cities across the country to a virtual standstill demanding a fundamental transformation of the entire social order. Heads of state, prime ministers and dignitaries from several countries, including Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and South Sudanese President Silva Kiir, attended the signing ceremony. The agreement, the subject of months-long talks that stalled repeatedly amid the junta’s violent and bloody crackdowns on hundreds of thousands of protestors, was brokered by the butcher of the Egyptian revolution, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in his role as the chair of the African Union (AU), and Ethiopian envoy Mahmoud Dirir. All this took place under the watchful eye of Washington and its junior partner in London, Sudan’s former colonial master, determined to ensure that the uprising does not spread to its regional allies, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, without whose support the junta would not have survived.

China’s Ultimate Play For Global Oil Market Control - All attention is focused on the twists-and-turns of the very noisy US-Iran dispute in the Persian Gulf, but all the while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly and quietly consolidating a dominant presence in the area with the active support of Russia.  Beijing, as a result, is fast acquiring immense influence over related key dynamics such as the price of oil in the world market and the relevance of the petrodollar. The PRC and the Russians are capitalizing on both the growing fears of Iran and the growing mistrust of the US. Hence, the US is already the main loser of the PRC’s gambit. The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:

• (1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and
• (2) The decision of key Arab leaders — most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, SheikhMohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) — to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.

Hence, the PRC offer to oversee and guarantee the establishment of a regional collective security regime — itself based on the Russian proposals and ideas first raised in late July 2019 — is now getting considerable positive attention from both shores of the Persian Gulf. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Oman appear to be becoming convinced that the PRC could be the key to the long-term stability and prosperity in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula. Iran is also considering the expansion of security cooperation with Russia as an added umbrella against potential US retaliation. Overall, according to sources in these areas, the US was increasingly perceived as an unpredictable, disruptive element. The profound change in the attitude of the Saudi and Emirati ruling families, who for decades have considered themselves pliant protégés of the US, took long to evolve. However, once formulated and adopted, the new policies have been implemented swiftly. The main driving issue is the realization by both MBS and MBZ that, irrespective of the reassuring rhetoric of US Pres. Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, their bitter nemesis — Qatar — is far more important to the US than the rest of the conservative Arab monarchies and sheikhdoms of the GCC. There are good reasons for the US preference of Qatar. The Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar is by far the most important US base in the entire greater Middle East. Qatar is mediating between the US and several nemeses, including Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey. Qatar is providing “humanitarian cash” to HAMAS in the Gaza Strip, thus buying quiet time for Israel. Qatar has given generous “political shelter” to numerous leaders, seniors, and commanders of questionable entities the US would like to protect but would never acknowledge this (including anti-Russia Chechens and other Caucasians, and anti-China Uighurs).

China trims lending rates with new benchmark, more rate cuts expected (Reuters) - China lowered its new lending reference rate slightly on Tuesday, as expected, as the central bank kicked off interest rate reforms designed to reduce corporate borrowing costs in the world’s second-largest economy.But the tiny reduction in the revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR) reflected Chinese banks’ continued reluctance to lower their lending rates and face leaner profit margins. That has fueled expectations Beijing will need to cut rates again soon in some form to support struggling businesses.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Saturday designated the LPR the new lending benchmark for new bank loans to households and businesses, replacing the central bank’s benchmark one-year lending rate. The new one-year was set at 4.25% on Tuesday, down 6 basis points (bps) from 4.31% previously. It was 10 bps lower than the PBOC’s existing benchmark one-year lending rate.The new reference rate is calculated from price contributions from a larger group of banks than the previous rate, including some smaller lenders which as a group tend to have higher funding costs and greater exposure to bad loans.“While this should nudge banks to reduce lending rates slightly, the impact on economic activity will be marginal,” Capital Economics Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said in a note. “A decline of only a few basis points is small.”He also said the PBOC would need to take other steps, including cu ts to medium-term liquidity (MLF) rates, if it wants to continue reducing the new reference rate. The new system links the two rates.

Mini Mac Shows China's Currency Shifting Into Undervaluation -- The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s Big Macs around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. dollars), to measure the extent to which various currencies are over- or under-valued. The Big Mac is a global product, identical across borders, which makes it an interesting one for this purpose. But the law of one price assumes there are no restrictions on, or costs involved in, the movement of goods, and Big Macs travel badly. So in 2013 we created our own Mini Mac Index, which compares the price of iPad minis across countries. Minis are a global product that, unlike Big Macs, can move quickly and cheaply around the world. As explained in the video here, this helps equalize prices. As shown in the graphic below, the Mini Mac Index suggests that the law of one price holds far better than does the Big Mac Index. The Big Mac shows the dollar overvalued against most currencies, by an average of 35 percent (a whopper). By contrast, the Mini Mac shows the dollar slightly undervalued—two percent on average (small fries). The Mini Mac therefore offers no support for President Donald Trump’s viewthat the Fed or Treasury needs to push down the dollar broadly. But it does suggest that he’s right to be concerned about China’s currency. To relieve pressure on its exporters from Trump’s tariffs, China has allowed its currency to slide since trade negotiations broke down this spring. According to the Mini Mac, the RMB has plunged from a four-percent overvaluation in January to an eight-percent undervaluation. The largest discrepancy between the two indexes remains Russia’s currency. With oil prices having ticked up since January, the Mini Mac shows the ruble rising from a five-percent undervaluation to a ten percent overvaluation. Despite higher oil prices, however, the Big Mac still has it undervalued by 65 percent. That just shows why their index won’t cut the mustard. 

Chart Of The Day- China's Economy Slows To 4.6% In June -  According to Fathom Consulting, a global independent macro research consultancy, it's proprietary China Momentum Indicator 2.0 has slowed to 4.6% in June, the lowest reading since Aug. 2016. There is also a growing gap between the China Momentum Indicator 2.0 at 4.6% and official GDP data at 6.2%. Might suggest China's economy hasn't yet bottomed, could continue to decline through 2H19 into 1H20.Gary Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, has said the slowdown predates the trade war and reflects a strategic decision by China to rebalance the economy.Fathom notes that China's economy was even slowing before the rebalancing. The global macro research firm said, "with the consumer share of total import demand on a downward trend since 2016, we also find little evidence to suggest that China is successfully rebalancing."To combat dangerous crosscurrents of the trade war disrupting global supply chains in and out of China, Chinese policymakers resorted to the same playbook as before, pump the economy with record amounts of the stimulus earlier in the year. Currency depreciation came into the picture when President Trump escalated the trade war by raising tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods in May. Then a massive devaluation of the renminbi followed in early August, when the president slapped 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1. Since the trade war began last March, the renminbi has weakened 13% against the U.S. dollar, neutralizing some of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China. Currency devaluation undermines hopes for a soft landing, while further infuriating the Trump administration who has recently branded China as a currency manipulator.

Chinese Social Credit Score Prevents 2.5 Million Discredited Entities From Buying Plane Tickets The Communist Chinese government is bragging about its social credit system has prevented 2.5 million “discredited entities” from purchasing plane tickets and 90,000 people from buying high speed train tickets in the month of July alone. “China restricted 2.56 million discredited entities from purchasing plane tickets, and 90,000 entities from buying high-speed rail tickets in July,” tweeted the Global Times, a Chinese government mouthpiece. As I document in the video below, Chinese citizens are punished by having their social credit score lowered for engaging in a number of different behaviors, including;

• – Bad driving.
• – Smoking on trains.
• – Buying too many video games.
• – Buying too much junk food.
• – Buying too much alcohol.
• – Calling a friend who has a low credit score .
• – Having a friend online who has a low credit score.
• – Posting “fake news” online.
• – Criticizing the government.
• – Visiting unauthorized websites.
• – Walking your dog without a leash.
• – Letting your dog bark too much.

As of November 2018, 6.7 million Chinese people had already been banned from buying air and train tickets. That number now appears to be surging. While many on the left and in the media decry China’s Orwellian social credit score system, they simultaneously advocate for a similar thing in the west, where people are deplatformed and have their right to engage in commerce revoked because of their political views.

China’s sickening acts on female prisoners at ‘re-education’ camps -- China is forcibly sterilising women held in its vast network of “re-education” camps which house political and religious prisoners, survivors have claimed. One woman, who was held for more than a year, has told French television that she was repeatedly injected with a substance by doctors in a prison in the far-west region of Xinjiang. “We had to stick our arms out through a small opening in the door,” Gulbahar Jalilova, a 54-year-old former detainee, told France 24.“We soon realised that after our injections that we didn’t get our periods any more.”She and up to 50 other women were crammed into a tiny cell “like we were just (a) piece of meat”, she said.Speaking to an Amnesty International conference recently, another woman, Mehrigul Tursun, 30, told a similar story of being unknowingly sterilised. She felt “tired for about a week, lost my memories and felt depressed” after being administered a cocktail of drugs while imprisoned in 2017, she said.After several months she was released, having been diagnosed as mentally ill, and now lived in the United States. Doctors there later told her that she had been sterilised.

As it happened: 1.7 million people attend Hong Kong anti-government rally, organisers say -

• Against police orders, Hongkongers leave Victoria Park and take to the streets
• Civil Human Rights Front, which is behind the biggest demonstrations against the extradition bill, had been banned from holding a march to Central

The day after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Hong Kong, another massive rally happened at Victoria Park in Causeway Bay on Sunday afternoon.Relief spread across the city as anti-government protests ended relatively peacefully on Saturday, with no tear gas fired, on the eleventh consecutive weekend of unrest. Sunday’s protest organiser, the Civil Human Rights Front, had applied to the police for a march from Causeway Bay to Central. But police would only allow a rally within Victoria Park, saying the front could not ensure public safety given violence at recent protests.

China's army may enter Hong Kong to 'quell' pro-democracy protests, adviser to Carrie Lam warns - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)China's military forces will move in to "quell" the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong if the situation deteriorates, an adviser to Hong Kong's leader Carrie Lam has said.  Hong Kong has been the scene of increasingly violent demonstrations, which have disrupted everyday life in the city and led to multiple closures of its international airport.The rallies began in June as protests against a now-suspended bill that would allow people suspected of a crime to be extradited to mainland China for trial in Communist Party-controlled courts but now encompass broader calls for democracy in Hong Kong and for Ms Lam to step down as chief executive."If it got to a point that really endangered Hong Kong and its notion of 'One Country, Two Systems', I am sure the People's Liberation Army would come in and hopefully quell some of whatever was going on," Allen Zeman, an economic adviser to Carrie Lam told the ABC. Mr Zeman said Hong Kong police had not been trained to handle the mass demonstrations and many of them were "learning on the job"."Hong Kong doesn't have an army, we have the police. This is something that was thrown on them," he said.His comments echoed the words of Zhang Xiaoming, the director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, who said in an August 7 press conference China would not sit idly by if the unrest worsened. Mr Zhang said China had sufficient capabilities to quickly subdue demonstrators.

No need for PLA, we can handle crisis: HK police - Hong Kong’s police are confident they have the resources to continue battling pro-democracy protesters, even if violence escalates further, pouring cold water on concerns that the authoritarian mainland might need to intervene. Three senior commanders said they were unaware of any plans by China to bolster their own ranks with mainland troops or police, even if the chaos worsens. In fact, they admitted that any move to do so would place the city’s police in uncharted waters. But, they insisted, the issue was moot because the local force could handle the crisis. “I can’t envisage it,” said one senior commander. “At the operational level, we have considerable depth. I think we have the determination, the cohesiveness and the depth of resources to keep going.” The three officers agreed to sit down with a group of foreign journalists on condition of anonymity so they could speak more freely during the worst unrest the force has faced since leftist riots in the late 1960s. Hong Kong’s summer of rage was sparked by broad opposition to a plan to allow extraditions to the mainland, but has since morphed into a wider call for democratic rights in the semi-autonomous city. Millions have hit the streets while clashes have broken out between police and small groups of hardcore protesters for 10 consecutive weeks in the greatest challenge to Beijing’s authority since the city’s 1997 handover. Political solution needed With neither Beijing nor Hong Kong’s leaders willing to offer any compromises, the police have become the loathed face of the government. The chant “hak geng” – corrupt cops – has become routine, both from protesters and, more recently, local residents infuriated by police engaging in near-nightly battles in their neighborhoods. Protesters, rights groups and the UN’s rights chief have accused police of using excessive force, with videos of teargas and rubber bullets generating renewed public outrage each weekend.

Hong Kong’s top accounting firms added to mainland Chinese media’s protest hit list  =Hong Kong’s big four accounting firms have come under attack from mainland Chinese media for remaining silent and not doing enough to deal with employees who support ongoing anti-government protestsin the city.Nationalistic state-run tabloid Global Times led the charge with a report on Thursday, revealing a crowdfunding effort allegedly by staff of KPMG, Ernst & Young (EY), Deloitte and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to pay for an advertisement in Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper.After the full-page advert appeared on Friday, Global Times followed up with a second report demanding the firms investigate who among their staff was behind it, and to sack them. In the advert, an anonymous group claiming to be “concerned employees at the respective big four accounting firms across multiple departments” criticised the companies’ Hong Kong branches for ignoring the reasons for the protests and Hongkongers’ “yearning for democracy and freedom”.

Int’l trade never a “politics free” business (Xinhua) -- Online retail giant Amazon has become the latest target of Chinese furor after selling T-shirts inciting Hong Kong "independence." As of Saturday, black T-shirts printed with such slogans as "Free Hong Kong" can still be found on its British and U.S. websites.Users on China's microblog Weibo have responded with hundreds of thousands of posts with the hashtag #AmazonTshirt, condemning Amazon for selling pro-Hong Kong independence merchandise.Caught in the rage, Amazon has issued a belated apology but failed to take immediate action to withdraw its controversial items. People from all walks of life take part in a rally to voice their opposition to violence and call for restoring social order, expressing the people's common will to protect and save the city at Tamar Park in south China's Hong Kong, Aug. 17, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Shen)Amazon is not the first company that infuriates Chinese consumers due to its arrogance, or at best lack of awareness over China's sovereignty. Crystal jewelry maker Swarovski, and luxury fashion brands Coach, Givenchy and Versace have either recalled products implying that Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are "independent countries" or been reviewing the content of their website.Zara, Marriott, Gap and McDonald's have previously infuriated Chinese customers by listing Chinese regions as separate entities. They also apologized later.Prompt and sincere apologies are always welcome. But baffling is how foreign firms make such mistakes in the first place. Ignoring the basics of Chinese geography comes at a big price. Respect for China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is a must for companies wishing to do business in the world's most populous country.

‘Another Tiananmen Square’ crackdown in Hong Kong would harm trade deal, Trump warns – U.S. President Donald Trump warned China that carrying out a Tiananmen Square-style crackdown on Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters would harm trade talks between the two countries. “I think it’d be very hard to deal if they do violence, I mean, if it’s another Tiananmen Square,” Trump told reporters Sunday. “I think it’s a very hard thing to do if there’s violence.” The monthslong trade dispute between the U.S. and China has been blamed for setting world financial markets on edge amid signs of a possible global economic slowdown. Trump’s comments came as Washington and Beijing look to revive pivotal high-level talks aimed at ending their trade war. Phone calls between both countries’ deputies are planned for the next 10 days, and if those are successful, negotiations between more senior officials could resume, Trump’s chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said Sunday. Hong Kong has meanwhile been rocked by more than two months of protests and on Sunday saw a crowd that organizers said numbered some 1.7 million people march peacefully in the city despite rising unrest and stark warnings from Beijing. Last week, protesters paralyzed the city’s airport, tarnishing a campaign that took pride in its peaceful intent and unpredictability — which demonstrators have tagged with the slogan “Be Water.” Communist Party-ruled mainland China has in turn sharpened its tone toward the dissidents, decrying the “terrorist-like” actions of a violent minority, while state media has broadcast images of military personnel and armored personnel carriers in Shenzhen, across the border from the semiautonomous city. China deployed tanks to end student-led protests in the bloody 1989 crackdown in and outside Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, resulting in an estimated death toll between several hundred to over a thousand.

Hong Kong Protesters Are Worried About Facial Recognition Technology. But There Are Many Other Ways They’re Being Watched. - The hard hat and black clothes have become the standard uniform of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, but the man who aided police in the arrest last Sunday was actually part of an undercover operation, the police department said in a press conference earlier this week. It was the first time that authorities had publicly confirmed using undercover officers. Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, said the operation was to target “core extreme protesters.” Since the protests started in June over a controversial extradition bill, participants have routinely covered their faces, blocked or smashed closed-circuit television cameras, and communicated over encrypted apps to conceal their identities. But with the protests growing into a wider resistance movement, with police expanding their tactics and nearly 750 people arrested, protesters are increasingly paranoid about how the authorities are working to identify them — and who can be trusted.   China has slowly encroached on Hong Kong’s freedoms — most notably taking away the ability to choose its own political leaders — and the extradition bill crossed a line, setting in motion the summer of chaos. Underlying all the street protests, the recent occupation of the airport, and the clouds of tear gas is the fear that Hong Kong’s character will be destroyed by its neighbor to the north.   But that also means taking on one of the most powerful authoritarian countries in the world — one whose citizens are heavily surveilled, often using facial recognition technology, and which is becoming increasingly frustrated with the protests. China initially responded by censoring news on the mainland, but since then, its rhetoric has become increasingly aggressive. On Monday, China likened the increased protest violence to “signs of terrorism emerging.” Among the protesters’ most obvious fears is a concern about how they can be tracked as arrests continue to mount. To get a better sense of this, BuzzFeed News reviewed hundreds of pages of documents released in a public records request from the Government Logistics Department. Those records showed there are at least three areas where the Hong Kong government already employs some type of facial recognition technology. At present, that includes: within its Hong Kong ID cards, inside its passports, and at the border entrance from the recently unveiled Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge— the longest sea crossing in the world.

Twitter, Facebook Shutter 100s Of Accounts Intended To Sow Discord In Hong Kong - Just like they did with loyalists to Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, and in other countries as well (Iran comes to mind), Twitter and Facebook have identified networks of "bots" or fake accounts purportedly set up by the mainland government with the intent to "sow discord" during the Hong Kong protests that are entering their 11th week. Twitter said Monday in a blog post that it had suspended nearly 950 accounts, while identifying another 200,000 that it believed might be members of 'botnets'. What we are disclosing: This disclosure consists of 936 accounts originating from within the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Overall, these accounts were deliberately and specifically attempting to sow political discord in Hong Kong, including undermining the legitimacy and political positions of the protest movement on the ground. Based on our intensive investigations, we have reliable evidence to support that this is a coordinated state-backed operation. Specifically, we identified large clusters of accounts behaving in a coordinated manner to amplify messages related to the Hong Kong protests.As a result, Twitter said it would be "updating our advertising policies with respect to state media. Going forward, we will not accept advertising from state-controlled news media entities."Separately, Facebook said that a tip from Twitter led it to remove seven pages, three groups and five accounts involved in "coordinated inauthentic behavior" targeting the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement. Some 15,500 accounts followed one or more of the now-deactivated pages, while roughly 2,200 accounts joined at least one of the groups, the company said.

 Hong Kong’s Protests Have Cemented Its Identity - As political upheaval here rolls through the summer, the proposed legislation that set months of demonstrations into motion has faded considerably from the prominence and parlance of protesters.Instead, disquiet over the now shelved bill, which would have allowed for case-by-case extraditions to mainland China, has morphed into something deeper, unearthing grievances and demands far beyond any single piece of legislation, and opening up a wide-ranging conversation over the fundamental question of what it means to be from Hong Kong. Protesters have laid out five demands for the government to bring their demonstrations to an end, but imbued in their fight is a sense that Hong Kong’s very existence and the identity of its people is being deliberately quashed by authorities who want to tie them closer to China.For more than two months, huge numbers of Hong Kongers have taken to the streets in mostly peaceful rallies demanding that their freedoms be protected. Today, undeterred by a downpour and only limited permission from police, some 1.7 million people again flooded the city’s streets, according to the Civil Human Rights Front, which organized the demonstration.And as those protests have continued, participants have taken particular aim at symbols of the mainland: When a group stormed Hong Kong’s legislative assembly last month, black spray paint was used to cross out references to the People’s Republic of China; a group of protesters was arrested this week fortossing a prominently displayed Chinese flag into the city’s main harbor. These efforts have also veered into acts of mob violence tinged with paranoia. Demonstrators at Hong Kong’s airport last week held captive two men—one, a suspected police officer from mainland China, was held for hours and mocked as he faded in and out of consciousness; the other (later revealed to be a reporter for the Chinese state-backed newspaper, Global Times) was zip-tied to a baggage cart.

Japan warns North Korea now has miniaturized nukes small enough to fit on its ballistic missiles and is a 'serious and imminent threat' - North Korea has miniaturised nuclear warheads and made them small enough to fit on ballistic missiles, Japan believes. Tokyo defence chiefs warn in a new white paper that North Korea's military activities pose a 'serious and imminent threat'. In last year's report Japan said it was 'possible' that North Korea had achieved miniaturisation, but Tokyo now appears to have upgraded its assessment, according to Japanese newspaper Yomiuri. Japan is seen as a 'primary target' of nearby North Korea's weapons capabilities and fears that Pyongyang's nuclear programme is 'growing unabated', experts say. The latest findings come alongside newly-released pictures which suggest a North Korean plant may be leaking hazardous waste into a nearby river.  The Japanese report highlights the lack of progress on denuclearisation talks, said Vipin Narang, a nuclear affairs expert at MIT. 'It is Japan that is most threatened, and probably the primary target of such a capability,' he said.  'So openly acknowledging it underscores Tokyo's acute fears that North Korea's nuclear program continues to grow unabated with no foreseeable plan to slow its growth, let alone eliminate them.'

South Korea Scraps Intelligence Pact With Japan Amid Rising Trade Tensions --Most Americans could be forgiven for thinking that the 'trade war' is really only impacting the US and (maybe) China. After all, it was President Trump's belligerent rhetoric about holding China accountable that helped him win in 2016 in the first place. But what is less known, is that Trump's angry trade rhetoric aggravated a bunch of other longstanding trade spats, most notably, the now-emergent trade spat between Japan and South Korea, which is threatening to seriously disrupt trade throughout the Pacific Rim region. Now, according to the Nikkei Asian Review, in the latest sign of how the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated, South Korea has decided not to extend an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan.  The decision was reportedly made at a National Security Council meeting on Thursday at South Korea's "Blue House." South Korea said it no longer believes the agreement is "in its national interest" after Japan excluded South Korea from the "so-called" "White Countries' list". Kim Yu-keun, the National Security Office's deputy director, said: "We thought that it is not in our national interest to maintain the agreement," adding that, "We will inform the Japanese government through diplomatic channels by the deadline of the extension, according to the agreement." Kim said: "The government estimated that the Japanese government caused a critical change in the circumstances of security cooperation between the two countries by excluding our country from the so-called white countries' list...with no clear evidence, on Aug. 2."The timing of the pact's termination is also interesting because of North Korea resuming its short-range missile tests, as well as its threats to call off peace talks with the South and the US.

De-Facto Annexation of Kashmir Means India as a Secular State is Ending -- Yves here. A distressing but nevertheless important Real News Network report on the implications of India’s de facto takeover of Kashmir.

New Delhi’s Demographic Designs in Kashmir - Since 1989, when an armed uprising against Indian rule began in India-administered Kashmir, violence has killed more than 50,000 people, according to official figures. Hundreds of mass graves have been discovered, and the International Crisis Group has estimated that the region is home to 30,000 orphans and at least 1,000 “half-widows,” a term used for Kashmiri women whose husbands are among the missing but have not been proved dead. On any given day over the past several years, young boys would throw stones at gun-wielding Indian soldiers in protest of a killing of a civilian or militant. And general feelings of dissent against Indian rule, which many Kashmiris see as an occupation, were commonly expressed. It was against this background that, on Aug. 5, New Delhi ended the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian Constitution by revoking Articles 370 and 35A. At the same time, it set up India’s only Muslim-majority state to be split into two union territories—one comprising the mountainous region of Ladakh and the other combining the Kashmir Valley with the state’s Jammu region. Hours before the move, the valley was put under strict curfew with internet, landline, and mobile phone services and cable television all blocked at once.  Although New Delhi had already eroded much of what Jammu and Kashmir’s special status promised over the years, it had continued to perform two important tasks. First, it served the symbolic function of keeping hope alive for reconciliation with, and better treatment by, India. Second, and more importantly, Article 35A prevented any demographic transformation of Jammu and Kashmir—something Kashmiris have long feared—since it prevented outsiders from purchasing land. With both of these benefits gone at once, the gulf between Kashmiris and the rest of India will grow wider, and although Indian authorities have for now enforced calm, high levels of violence could be around the corner. It seems clear that revoking Article 35A will change the nature of Kashmir. For now, it is Muslim majority—according to Indiancensus data from 2011, 68 percent of Jammu and Kashmir’s 12.5 million people were Muslims. With the local government no longer able to bar outsiders from land ownership, New Delhi could presumably encourage the migration of Hindus to the region in the same way China has supported the growth of Han Chinese populations in Tibet.

States of Kashmir – State of Siege: Living without uncertainty in Kashmir is like a summer without trees in bloom. A day without a killing is a surprise. So we have learned to live on a precipice, never knowing what could push us over, when the shove would come, or whose hand it would be.Rumors began circulating early, a week before August 5. There were whispers that Article 370, the Constitutional clause that gave Kashmir its special status, would be abrogated, along with Article 35A, which prevents non-Kashmiris from buying land in the state. Some warned of an imminent, large-scale anti-terror crackdown. More than once I heard that a war between India and Pakistan was about to break out. Still others said that the state would be trifurcated into Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh—the three provinces that constituted the state.The first rumor is almost always true. Kashmiris have learned that the hard way. The government and the mainstream media worked very hard to cover up what was about to happen. The unexplained urgency with which the government suspended the Amarnath yatra, a pilgrimage to a Hindu cave shrine, sparked off the first wave of fear. All non-Kashmiri tourists and students were then forced to vacate Kashmir because of the vague but alarming pretext of a terror threat.  More than 35,000 additional troops were sent to what was already one of the world’s most militarized zones. Kashmiris knew something bad was in the offing. Almost as a ritual, Kashmiris stocked their houses with essentials, called their loved ones, and once again reminded one another that this could be the last time they would speak. There were huge queues at petrol pumps, and at ATMs.
State of Denial: “What do Kashmiris really want?” is a rhetorical question that will resonate with Kashmiris who have managed to step out of the besieged state for education or employment. Those asking the questions are never interested in the replies. The goal is to tell Kashmiris what is good for them, or how they shouldn’t or should feel. The other day a Kashmiri university student in Delhi told me that her teachers and classmates had explained to her that this move was really for her own good. We have grown up listening to explanations and arguments such as these..
State of Amnesia: The certainty about the inevitability of such a brutal reaction from the Indian state has a long, misremembered history. Separatist sentiment has been dominant among Kashmiris since 1947, when Hari Singh, the Hindu Maharaja of the Muslim-majority princely state, joined India after massive raids by guerillas from Pakistan.² In the negotiations, an agreement of accession was signed with India in October 1947 granting limited powers to the Indian dominion to legislate only on the subjects of defense, foreign affairs, and communications.

At least 4,000 detained in Kashmir since region stripped of autonomy Thousands of people have been detained in Indian Kashmir over fears of outbreaks of unrest after New Delhi stripped the restive region of its autonomy two weeks ago, government sources told AFP. A magistrate speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity said at least 4,000 people were arrested and held under the Public Safety Act (PSA), a controversial law that allows authorities to imprison someone for up to two years without charge or trial. “Most of them were flown out of Kashmir because prisons here have run out of capacity,” the magistrate said, adding that he had used a satellite phone allocated to him to collate the figures from colleagues across the Himalayan territory amid a communications blackout imposed by authorities. Authorities have repeatedly declined to provide a tally of how many people have been taken into custody, apart from confirming more than 100 local politicians, activists and academics were detained in the first few days after the state was stripped of its semi-autonomous status. They said the “few preventive detentions” were made to avoid a “breach of the peace” in a region that has fought an armed rebellion against Indian rule for three decades.

India reimposes some curbs in Kashmir as stone-throwing spreads (Reuters) - Indian authorities reimposed restrictions on movement in parts of Kashmir’s biggest city, Srinagar, on Sunday after overnight clashes between residents and police in which dozens were injured, two senior officials and eyewitnesses said. Since Saturday there have been a series of protests against the decision on Aug. 5 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government to revoke the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority region. The officials said security forces had been pelted with stones on 47 occasions on Saturday night in the Kashmir Valley, and more than 20 on Sunday. One said the protests were growing more intense. On Saturday, about two dozen people reported to Srinagar’s two main hospitals with injuries, mainly from pellets fired by Indian forces, said the officials, who declined to be named. Residents and police said many people with pellet wounds were not seeking treatment for fear of being identified and arrested.

“Kashmir Has Been Turned Invisible” - How does one deal with a siege of coerced invisibility over the place you call home? With a military blockade, enforced by a massive influx of men and machines of war along with a more chilling development, a forced silence and the deliberate concealment of not just the actions of the occupying power, but of the people they have brutalized for decades? This is the best description we have of our homeland, Kashmir.  It was the evening of August 4 when we last spoke at any length to our families. “We do not know when we will be able to talk to you again,” they cautioned, “or if we will at all.” And since then, a deafening silence. Our repeated calls have been met with the same automated response: “The number is currently switched off.” The thirty-second calls that are allowed from police stations in Kashmir are moderated; families have to wait for hours in a queue before they can get on the phone. The level of humiliation and attempt at absolute control — who people can communicate with, what they can say — is unprecedented, even for a people used to living under occupation. “Kashmir,” a local journalist remarked, “has been turned invisible even inside Kashmir.” A strict curfew has been in place since the dawn of August 5. The few reports that initially trickled out of the valley noted that people are not permitted to move freely outside their homes. Congregational Eid prayers were prohibited in most places; the government decided which mosques would be opened. A massive wave of arrests has been reported, with politicians (both pro-independence and pro-India), academics, lawyers, and human rights activists detained. All lines of communication, including landline phones, mobile phones, and internet have been suspended, and remain so.

Yes, Kashmir is angry but don’t edit out the rest of the story - Two very polarising journalistic narratives are coming out of Kashmir and both of them are untrue. The first is apocalyptic, brought out by journalists who were close to old political establishment in the state and who now find themselves adrift in the new order created by New Delhi. These journalists have been veterans of Gupkar Road, the main power centre of Kashmir from where its political and security grid operates. Those who were used to saying, “Farooq, can we have a meeting over breakfast” do not know how to accept the fact that Farooq Abdullah’s residence has no internet. When these journalists returned after their brief stay, they painted an extreme picture of clampdown and desolation, which is only half the truth. Things are not normal in Kashmir. There is a total communication blackout because of which ordinary people are suffering. But apart from that, there is no clampdown as the painters of apocalypse have been suggesting. If one had a car, one could move about freely, except through highsecurity VIP areas. During the ten days I spent travelling across Srinagar, and the South, which has been most prone to violence since terrorist commander Burhan Wani’s death in 2016, I went around in a small car with a local number. I had no curfew pass. There were barricades on roads, but security forces could be convinced to let go, as we did several times. There had been clear instructions to security personnel that they need to be well behaved with the public. It had come from the Union home ministry. Of course, that things are normal cannot be inferred from just vehicular traffic on roads. The other problem became local TV journalists who would be glued to their OB vans and refused to go anywhere. Their counterparts in Delhi office kept tweeting on their behalf that they were unable to go anywhere. This is nothing but journalistic dishonesty (DC Srinagar clarified later that he had issued 161 passes to local journalists). We met one such journalist in Sarovar Hotel in Srinagar where he was sitting with a group of friends, eating sandwiches. He instantly offered to take a friend from Delhi “anywhere” he wanted and advised him to not to be scared. The friend said he was not, and that he had been able to move around freely in his own car.

Besieged Kashmiri neighborhood in test of wills with India’s Modi (Reuters) - For more than a week, the young men of Soura, a densely populated enclave in Kashmir’s main city of Srinagar, have been taking turns to maintain an around-the-clock vigil at the entry points to their neighborhood. Each of the dozen or so entrances have been blocked with makeshift barricades of bricks, corrugated metal sheets, wooden slabs and felled tree trunks. Groups of youths armed with stones congregate behind the biggest obstacles. The aim: to keep Indian security forces, and particularly the paramilitary police, out of the area. “We have no voice. We are exploding from within,” said Ejaz, 25, who like many other residents in Soura interviewed by Reuters gave only one name, saying he feared arrest. “If the world won’t listen to us too, then what should we do? Pick up guns?” Soura, home to about 15,000 people, is becoming the epicenter of resistance to Indian government plans to remove the partial autonomy that was enjoyed by Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim-majority state. The enclave, which has effectively become a no-go zone for the Indian security forces, is now a barometer of the ability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government to impose its will in Kashmir after its dramatic move on Aug. 5 to tighten its control over the region. The change, the government said, was necessary to integrate Kashmir fully into India, tackle corruption and nepotism, and speed up its development, which Modi says is the key to securing lasting peace and defeating terrorism. In Soura, it’s hard to find anyone who supports Modi’s move. Many of the more than two dozen residents interviewed by Reuters over the past week referred to the Indian prime minister as “zaalim”, an Urdu word meaning “tyrant”. The constitutional change will allow non-residents to buy property in Jammu and Kashmir and apply for jobs in local government. Some Muslims in Kashmir say they fear that India’s dominant Hindu population will overrun the lush state at the foot of the Himalayas, and Kashmiris’ identity, culture and religion will be diluted and repressed.

India, Pakistan exchange artillery-fire, threats over Kashmir - Tensions between South Asia’s rival nuclear-armed states have escalated in recent days, with India and Pakistan accusing each other of preparing to attack, and their military forces exchanging lethal artillery fire across the Line of Control (LoC) that separates the Indian and Pakistani-controlled portions of Kashmir. On Saturday, New Delhi said one of its soldiers had been killed in what it called an unprovoked Pakistan-initiated, cross-border artillery exchange. Two days earlier, Islamabad had reported that three of its soldiers and two civilians had been killed by Indian artillery-fire in two different sectors along the LoC. The Pakistani military also said that its forces had killed five Indian soldiers during Thursday’s cross-border exchanges. New Delhi conceded that there had been heavy fire, but dismissed any claim of Indian fatalities that day as baseless. The Indian military has repeatedly charged that Pakistan is seeking to infiltrate anti-Indian Islamist insurgents across the LoC to carry out terrorist strikes. And in what was widely touted by the Indian press as an explicit warning to Pakistan, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said Friday that changed “circumstances” could cause India to abandon its “No First Use” nuclear-weapons pledge. So as to ensure that this comment, made at Pokhran, site of India’s 1998 nuclear weapons test, got maximum media attention, Singh also tweeted it. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, in a speech Wednesday in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-held Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), accused India of planning to invade the area, then threatened a massive military response. “The Pakistani army,” said Khan, “has solid information that they [India] are planning to do something in Pakistani Kashmir. We have decided that if India commits any violation we will fight until the end.. .. The time has arrived to teach [India] a lesson.”

Pakistan's PM Khan- World Must Seriously Consider Safety Of India's Nuclear Arsenal - Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan has gone on a blistering attack, in a series of Twitter statements arguing that the world must "seriously consider" the safety of India's nuclear arsenal under control the "fascist" Modi government. "The world must also seriously consider the safety and security of India's nuclear arsenal in the control of the fascist, racist Hindu supremacist Modi government. This is an issue that impacts not just the region but the world," Khan tweeted early Sunday. Khan's words came just as the AFP is reporting some 4,000 Kashmiris thrown into detention amid an unprecedented crackdown by tens of thousands of Indian troops enforcing a legal revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's (J&k) autonomous status.   It also comes two days after Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh detailed India's "no first use" nuclear policy, hinting that it could become permanent. Pakistani officials have said this is a distraction from India's "genocidal" policies against Muslim Kashmirs. “India has been captured, as Germany had been captured by Nazis, by a fascist, racist Hindu supremacist ideology and leadership. This threatens nine million Kashmiris under siege for over two weeks which should have sent alarm bells ringing across the world with UN observers being sent there,” Khan tweeted. India has been captured, as Germany had been captured by Nazis, by a fascist, racist Hindu Supremacist ideology & leadership.This threatens 9m Kashmiris under siege in IOK for over 2 weeks which shd have sent alarm bells ringing across the world with UN Observers being sent there — Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) August 18, 2019 And speaking of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata leadership in New Delhi led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which on August 5th J&K's status quo ability and rights to maintain their own local governance, Khan described further, “One can simply Google to understand the link between the Nazi ideology and ethnic cleansing and genocide ideology of the RSS-BJP founding fathers.” “Already four million Indian Muslims face detention camps and cancellation of citizenship. The world must take note as this genie is out of the bottle and the doctrine of hate and genocide, with RSS goons on the rampage, will spread unless the international community acts now to stop it,” he said.

Bangladesh slum fire leaves 10,000 people homeless - More than 10,000 people have been left homeless after a massive fire engulfed a slum in Bangladesh's capital, Dhaka, destroying thousands of shanties, according to Bangladeshi officials. The fire broke out Friday evening at the Chalantika slum in Dhaka's Mirpur district on the northern outskirts of the city. Video footage showed the makeshift huts ablaze, with smoke billowing into the air. Zillur Rahman, the director of the Bangladesh Fire Service, told CNN that the fire started at around 7:14 p.m. local time Friday and was put out by 11:35 p.m. He reported that there were no casualties as a result of the blaze, but noted that four people were injured and taken to a local hospital. "I could not salvage a single thing. I don't know what I will do," Abdul Hamid, who worked in the slum, told Agence France-Presse. The majority of the slum's residents are low-paid workers from nearby garment factories. Many of them were not at home at the time of the blaze as they were celebrating the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha, according to officials. "Otherwise, the damage would have been bigger," Golam Rabbani, a local police chief, said. Rabbani told CNN that more than 2,000 huts were destroyed in the blaze, leaving more than 10,000 people homeless.

Media Blackout on Brazil’s Anti-Bolsonaro Protests -  Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians took to the streets of 211 cities on August 13 to protest far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s austerity cuts and privatization plans for the public university system. It was the third in series of national education strikes, dubbed “the Education Tsunamis,” organized by national students unions together with teachers unions affiliated with the Central Ùnica de Trabalhadores (Unified Workers Central/CUT)—the second-largest labor union confederation in the Americas. Organized from the bottom up by teachers, high school and university students, through thousands of democratic assemblies across the country, communication between activists in the different towns and cities insured that the August 13 street protests were staggered throughout the day to achieve maximum impact. Starting in smaller cities during the morning rush hour, with protests numbering in the low thousands, they increased in size as the day progressed, with crowds of 30,000–50,000 in larger cities like Recife, culminating during the evening rush hour in Brazil’s three largest cities, with an estimated crowd of 100,000 shutting down Avenida Paulista in the heart of São Paulo’s financial district. There, instead of the usual honking cars, groups of teenagers danced and sang things like, “I want education, to be intelligent, because for stupid we already have our president.” Thousands of older people came out in solidarity with the teachers and students, and the atmosphere was one of hope against Bolsonaro’s sub-fascist project, and its attempt to purge the education system of critical thinking through a revival of the old Nazi trope of “Cultural Marxism.”In short, it seemed like the perfect feel-good event for newspapers like the Guardian and the New York Times to share with their liberal readers. The Guardian, which ran two articles about smaller pro-Bolsonaro protests in May, with photos of protesters shot from below to make them appear heroic, did not even mention it. The New York Times ran a 129-word stub from theAP that low-balled the number of cities where protests took place, and says they were smaller than the Education Tsunami protests in May (factually correct, but contextually misleading, since they were still huge).The issue of under-reporting and ignoring protests by Brazil’s so-called “organized left”—the labor unions and popular social movements that make up the traditional support base for the Workers Party—is a historic problem. One of the main causes for this is that the organizations responsible for generating official crowd numbers in Brazil are its historically neofascist state military police forces.

The ‘Celebritization’ of Protest in Russia -- On August 10, 50,000 Muscovites took part in a protest on Prospekt Sakharova in support of opposition candidates who have been disqualified on questionable grounds from running in the city’s council elections scheduled for September 8. This was the fifth straight weekend of protest in the capital. While the marches and rallies have been peaceful, authorities have taken an extremely harsh stance toward participants, detaining more than 2,700 people.   Unlike the previous protests, this meeting carried two slogans —“Let them out!” “Let them run!” — reflecting both support for the opposition candidates and solidarity with those detained in previous protests. For the first time, well-known celebrities joined the protest movement. Artists Face and IC3PEAK as well as the group “Krovostok” performed on the main stage, while actors Yana Troynova, Alina Alexeyeva, Aglaya Tarasova, and Vladislav Kotlyarsky (who famously portrayed a police officer on television and posed with some riot police fans), YouTuber Yuri Dud, blogger Nikolai Sobolyov, rappers Oxxxymiron and Loqiemean joined the crowd. The so-called “celebritization” of the protest has led some observers to argue that the movement has not only been endorsed by large parts of society but, in fact, become fashionable. The involvement of musicians and artists in Russian politics is not, strictly speaking, entirely novel. Yuri Shevchuk, of the 1980s rock band DDT, has repeatedly criticized the lack of freedom of speech and other restrictions in Russia, including in a famous exchange directly with Putin in 2010. Ksenia Sobchak, daughter of Putin-mentor Anatoly Sobchak, joined the “For Free Elections” mass protests in 2011.    The art collective and punk band Pussy Riot declared their opposition to Vladimir Putin in a “feminist punk prayer” performed at the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in 2012 for which the band members were eventually sentenced to prison terms. Artists like Pyotr Pavlensky and the groups Voina and Vremya have repeatedly targeted the regime through performance art. Some have subsequently fled Russia.

The Population Bust: Demographic Decline and the End of Capitalism as We Know It - For most of human history, the world’s population grew so slowly that for most people alive, it would have felt static.  Then, the population exploded, By the late 1920s, it had hit two billion. It reached three billion around 1960 and then four billion around 1975. It has nearly doubled since then. There are now some 7.6 billion people living on the planet.  Just as much of the world has come to see rapid population growth as normal and expected, the trends are shifting again, this time into reverse. Most parts of the world are witnessing sharp and sudden contractions in either birthrates or absolute population. The only thing preventing the population in many countries from shrinking more quickly is that death rates are also falling, because people everywhere are living longer. These oscillations are not easy for any society to manage. “Rapid population acceleration and deceleration send shockwaves around the world wherever they occur and have shaped history in ways that are rarely appreciated,” the demographer Paul Morland writes in The Human Tide, his new history of demographics. Morland does not quite believe that “demography is destiny,” as the old adage mistakenly attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte would have it. Nor do Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, the authors of Empty Planet, a new book on the rapidly shifting demographics of the twenty-first century. But demographics are clearly part of destiny. If their role first in the rise of the West and now in the rise of the rest has been underappreciated, the potential consequences of plateauing and then shrinking populations in the decades ahead are almost wholly ignored.

Morgan Stanley- The Global Economy Is Deteriorating Faster Than Offsetting Policy Action - As regular readers know, Morgan Stanley is pretty bearish on global risk assets. This applies to emerging markets (EM) too, where we've been calling for wider credit spreads, weaker EM currencies, particularly in Asia, and lower equity prices. However, not so long ago the narrative guiding investors ran something like this: The Fed was ahead of the curve, EM bond yields looked attractive in a world of negative interest rates and a US-China trade deal seemed within reach. Meanwhile, EM equity earnings were supposed to be enjoying a 2H19 upswing, led by a Chinese economic recovery and easy comps for sectors like autos and IT hardware In the past few weeks, we've seen the Fed deliver a hawkish rate cut and pass up multiple opportunities to turn more dovish, the US state that it would impose tariffs on all remaining imports from China, loan growth and activity for July disappoint, CNY break 7 versus USD, the US label China a currency manipulator, tensions flare up between India and Pakistan, protests intensify in Hong Kong and Argentina's primary elections deliver a surprise – all leading to sharp moves lower in EM risk asset prices. The bulk of the weakness may now be behind us, and the asset class will probably trough before year-end, but we think there’s a bit more to come in the short term. We wouldn’t be surprised to see MSCI EM equities undershoot our June 2020 base case target of 940 (-4%Y), further losses for Asia FX, and EM credit spreads settle around 380-400bp versus 370bp now. One key problem is that the global economy is deteriorating faster than offsetting policy action, despite the fact that several EM central banks have begun to step up the pace of easing. Activity is particularly weak in the manufacturing and trade-dependent economies of North Asia, which dominate the EM equities index. Although China could partially offset the impact of additional US tariffs due in early September through additional fiscal easing, we’d still expect GDP growth in that scenario to decelerate further, to 6.0%Y in 4Q versus 6.2%Y in 2Q. China's July data for industrial production (+4.8%Y) and retail sales (+7.6%Y) both materially missed consensus estimates this week. With GDP growth in other major index constituents Korea, Taiwan and South Africa also weakening, we now project aggregate earnings growth for EM of just 1%Y for 2019.

Negative Mortgages Set Another Milestone in No-Rate World - The world’s headlong dash to zero or negative interest rates just passed another milestone: Homebuyers in Denmark effectively are being paid to take out 10-year mortgages. Jyske Bank A/S, Denmark’s third-largest lender, announced in early August a mortgage rate of -0.5%, before fees. Nordea Bank Abp, meanwhile, is offering 30-year mortgages at annual interest of 0.5%, and 20-year loans at zero. Years of easing by central banks hacked away at interest rates around the world, distorting the traditional economics of lending and borrowing. This is most pronounced in Europe, where a composite home-loan rate across the euro area fell to 1.65% in June, the lowest since records began in 2000. While some regions have resisted the trend, borrowing costs are at or near rock-bottom in many major world markets. That’s boosted demand from homebuyers and spurred fierce competition among lenders for their business. German mortgage rates also reached historic lows this year, with the average 10-year loan currently under 1%. Some lenders are offering rates around 0.5%, according to Interhyp, a comparison website.  The average American 30-year mortgage rate is 3.6%, the lowest since November 2016. A resulting surge in demand for homes sent total mortgage debt to $9.41 trillion in the second quarter, surpassing the peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. Mortgage brokers, too, are rushing to keep up with demand for refinancing: Applications are running at a three-year high.

12 Reasons Why Negative Rates Will Devastate The World - It has been a thesis over 20 years in the making, but with every passing day, SocGen's Albert Edwards - who first coined the term "Ice Age" to describe the state of the world in which every debt issue ends up with a negative yield as capital markets and economies collapse into a deflationary singularity - is that much closer to having the victory lap of a lifetime. Although, we doubt he is happy about it.  Commenting on the interest rate collapse he has been (correctly) predicting ever since he first observed Japan's great bubble bust of the 1980s and which resulted in both NIRP and QE, and which he (correctly) expected would spread across the rest of the world, leading to a "Japanification" of every major bond market... Edwards said that what bond markets are telling us is "that the cycle is ending with the central banks having failed to drive core CPI inflation higher. So Japanese-style outright deflation lies ahead at a time when western economies have piled debt sky high."  Needless to say that's not good, not least of all because we now live in a world in which the bond universe with negative yields continues to grow at an exponential pace, rising rapidly over the past two weeks and reaching a record $16.4 trillion...... rising significantly above the previous mid-2016 record high of around $12.2tr. The expansion of the universe of negatively yielding bonds as a percentage of total is shown below: as of the last week, this proportion increased further to around 30.0%, above the mid-2016 record high of 25.8%. Meanwhile, as the world is blanketed by Edwards' Ice Age, one can see the spread of negative rates both in space and in time. The spectrum of negative yielding universe expanded this year not only from shorter duration to longer duration government bonds but also down the risk spectrum from core Euro area government bonds to bonds issued by Peripheral countries, as JPM shows in the chart below.The next chart shows the proportion of bonds in negative territory as a % of total bonds in each maturity bucket across various countries within the JPM GBI Broad index. In Europe, we now have four counties, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Finland with their full maturity spectrum trading with negative yields. Most periphery countries have at least a portion of their maturity spectrum trading with negative yields, however even they are rapidly sliding "under" as pension funds and other yield chasers scramble to buy up what little positive yield remains in the world.

Germany Is About To Sells Its First Ever Zero-Coupon Ultra-Long Bond - It's not quite a zero coupon perpetual sovereign bond just yet, but it will have to do for now. Having already sold debt which pays zero interest (i.e., 0% coupon), in just a few hours, Germany will sell an ultra-long bond with a 0% coupon for the first time on Wednesday amid a spasm of debt sales over the next two weeks offering negative rates. As Bloomberg points out, this week’s 30-year auction will test the continued demand for haven assets now that the whole of Germany’s yield curve is in negative territory. Meanwhile, as Bank of America said in a Monday report, the search for returns has driven 30-year yields to negative levels that cannot satisfy the return requirements of insurance companies and pension funds. This scramble for yield risks a repeat of the bund "tantrum" seen in April 2015 when 10-year yields were approaching 0% for the first time and a Bill Gross warning coupled with a sudden lack of appetite for a debt sale triggered a violent sell-off. “There are some concerning parallels to today’s market environment,” said Ralf Preusser, global head of rates strategy at Bank of America, in a note. The risk is that at these yield levels, the German Treasury will eventually encounter a “buyers’ strike,” he said. But not yet. Germany will sell two billion euros of new 30-year debt at 10:30 a.m. London time on Wednesday, and since the yield on Germany’s 30-year bonds fell four basis points Tuesday to minus 0.18%, much lower than the 0.29% level on July 17, when the nation last sold similar-maturity debt, not only will the bond come with a zero coupon but it will be the first negative yielding ultra-long bond ever sold by Germany. That said, traders will be closely following the oversubscription rate on the sale, which neared a record low in the July after falling for the last three auctions. After the 30Y auction, Germany will next sell five billion euros of a new two-year bond on Aug. 27, followed by three billion euros of 10-year notes on Aug. 28 and four billion euros of five-year securities on Sept. 4. But what if the warnings of a buyer's strike are wrong and investors scramble to buy up even more duration ahead of a barrage of global QE, sending ultra long rates even lower? Well, as Deutsche Bank's Michal Jezek wrote back on July 8, "the German government seems to be getting closer to having the power to issue a zero-coupon perpetuity in this market."

Germany Sells World's First 30-Year Negative Yielding Bond... And It's A Failure -- Last night, when we previewed Germany's sale this morning of what would be the world's first ultra-long (30 Year) auction with a negative yield, we said that "traders will closely follow the oversubscription rate on the sale, which neared a record low in the July after falling for the last three auctions." And sure enough that turned out to be a rather thorny issue as the bond sale was technically a failure. Here's what happened: on Wednesday morning, with its entire yield curve below zero and the yield on the 30Y auction assured to be negative, a reflection of dwindling expectations for inflation and growth over the coming years and ahead of the ECB's relaunch of QE next month - Germany was hoping to sell some €2 billion in bonds maturing 2050. However, with bond yields rising sharply into the auction, with the yield on the German 30Y rising from -0.18% to as high as -0.10%, demand suddenly slumped.  And so, when the dust settled, it turned out that Germany had managed to sell just €824 million of the total €2 billion target at a record low yield of -0.11%, with the Bundesbank forced to retain almost two-thirds of the entire issue as demand plunged. In other words, this was a failed auction. Thanks to the central bank's intervention, the bid-to-cover ratio was just barely above one, or 1.05 times, versus 1.07 times for the previous sale of similar maturity bonds on July 17, while the real subscription rate - which accounts for retentions by the Bundesbank - fell to 0.43 times against 0.86 times at the previous auction. Anything below 1 indicates that there is no real market demand for the entire issuje.  “It is technically a failed auction,” said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank AS. “I am not all worried about this -- as investors can always just buy in the future and do not need to participate in auctions.”  He may not be worried, but the optics are certainly not pleasant. Worse, it means that a disconnect may be forming between the primary (auction) and secondary market, where foreign investors are willing to send yields to record lows in the open market but stay quiet at auction, resulting in a potential air pocket between market and auction prices. As Bloomberg adds, Commerzbank AG had expected demand to come from life insurers and macro investors before the sale. It failed to materialize.

Italy’s Right-Wing Government Collapses – Will the Next One Be Better? - Yves here. We’ve been giving short shrift to Italy because so much has been happening on other fronts, but also because Italian politics are even during normal times, daunting for outsiders, and these are not normal times. However, the fracture in Italy is taking place under the backdrop of Eurozone-created stresses continuing to damage its already weak economy. In some ways, it’s remarkable that the EU has managed to paper over the rot in the Italian banking system, where many banks would be zombies or dead if their bad commercial loans were written down. But Italy’s economy is dominated by medium-sized and small businesses, so the sick state of the banks is the direct result of post-crisis GDP contraction.The odd marriage of right wing Lega Nord and the Five Star Movement led to some noisy pushback against EU and Eurozone policies, such as on migrants and Italy’s desire to run bigger deficits than EU rules allow. Unfortunately, the drama greatly exceeded progress. But Italy can’t continue to be the sick man of Europe without it eventually having serious repercussions. But “eventually” could still be a while. This Real News Network interview discusses the collapse of the Lega Nord-led right wing government and the prospects for a new coalition between the Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party. Luciana Castellina points out that this is what Lambert would call an overly dynamic situation; even what some of the major parties stand for is in play, and that’s before getting to Five Star being an all-over-the-map constellation of positions.

 What happens next? 4 possible solutions for the Italian crisis -- The fate of the Italian government is now in the hands of President Sergio Mattarella after Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday, officially bringing an end to Western Europe's first post-war populist government. The crisis was triggered less than two weeks ago when Matteo Salvini, the leader of the far-right League and interior minister, declared there was no longer majority support for his coalition government and called for a vote of no confidence in Conte. But Conte preempted that vote by announcing his resignation, setting the country on an uncertain course.  It's now up to Mattarella to see if there’s an alternative majority in the parliament for another government or to call for snap elections. His consultations will start on Wednesday to end the day after, but it could just be a first round. Here are the four most likely scenarios to emerge from the current chaos. 

• Everyone against Salvini: Some members of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) and Salvini's former coalition partners in the anti-establishment 5Star Movement have been pushing for something dubbed the "Ursula plan." This scheme would involve a partnership among the groups that voted for European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen — meaning potentially all parties except the League and the other far-right party, Brothers of Italy. A similar wide majority of support could also be found for a caretaker government of technocrats.
• PD and 5Stars leave out Berlusconi: This plan would solve the Berlusconi issue of the Ursula plan, since it would only involve the PD and 5Stars and some smaller parties. It could, however, put Forza Italia in a tough spot when voting in parliament. In this scenario, the party would sit in opposition with the League and the rest of the Euroskeptics, but as a member of the European People's Party, FI may be reluctant to vote against a pro-EU government. Some observers in Rome say FI could opt instead to be a "constructive" opponent, meaning it would vote for some bills proposed by the government.
• Head to the polls: Mattarella could also decide to call a snap election, which is Salvini's preferred option: The League has picked up support since last year's vote, currently polling at around 36 percent, ahead of all other parties. The PD is in second at 23 percent while the 5Stars are at 19 percent.
• 5Stars and League call a truce: This scenario may seem the most unlikely given the heated exchange of barbs between Salvini and 5Star leader Luigi Di Maio in recent weeks. The 5Stars issued a statement on Sunday saying “Salvini is no longer a credible interlocutor,” for example. But Italian politics typically involves a lot of theater before lawmakers come to a final compromise, and a senior 5Star official said that in the party’s top ranks, “many still prefer Salvini.”

Over 450 refugees stranded in the Mediterranean for weeks as EU bars entry - For between one and three weeks, more than 450 refugees aboard two humanitarian rescue ships in the Mediterranean Sea have remained stranded and in increasingly desperate conditions, as European Union (EU) governments continue to bar them entry to the continent. A total of 356 people are aboard the Ocean Viking, jointly operated by Doctors Without Borders and the SOS Mediterranean. The ship has been sailing back and forth between Italy and Malta in international waters, 32 miles off the European coast, since August 12, awaiting a port at which to land. France, Spain, Malta and Italy have all refused. The passengers, mainly hailing from Sudan, include 259 men, four women, and 103 minors (of whom 92 are unaccompanied), who had set sail for Italy from Libya before they were rescued. A second boat, the Proactiva Open Arms, run by the Catalan-based humanitarian organization of the same name, has been stranded in search of a safe port for 19 days. Since Thursday it has been anchored less than 300 meters off the coast of the Italian island of Lampedusa. The Italian government and its Interior Minister Mateo Salvini have refused to allow the ship to land, with Salvini placing his foul attacks on the ship at the center of his efforts to whip up a fascistic movement through anti-immigrant chauvinism and racism. Open Arms On Sunday, Proactiva announced that it had rejected the cynical and fraudulent offer by the Spanish Socialist Party government, which for weeks has refused requests to allow the Open Arms to board at its ports, to land at Algeciras. Oscar Camps, the founder of the organization, wrote in a Twitter post that the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was offering “the farthest-away port of the Mediterranean.” In reality, the Spanish government, which six days earlier had contemptuously dismissed an appeal by Proactiva to take in 31 minors from the ship, was making an offer it knew would be refused. The same day, following the Spanish announcement, France’s Macron administration announced that the country of 67 million people could accept a maximum of 40 refugees. Laura Lanuza, a spokeswoman for the organization, stated that the refugees were “in a state of extreme humanitarian emergency. What they need is to be disembarked now. There is anxiety, bouts of violence, control is becoming increasingly difficult… It is unthinkable to navigate for six days; that is what it would take for us to arrive at Algeciras.”

Sweden- Robberies Targeting Children Hit New Record High - Robberies targeting children in Sweden have hit a new record high, with young men with migrant backgrounds being blamed for the spike. According to figures published by Sweden’s crime prevention agency BRÅ, 637 robberies were reported against young people under 18 in the second quarter of this year, the highest ever number. During the same period in 2017, the corresponding figure was 358, while in 2018 it was 505. During the first six months of this year, 1,277 robberies against minors were reported, which is more than for the whole of 2015. In 2015, 1,084 robberies targeting children were reported while last year the figure was 1,896. Extrapolated out, there are expected to be roughly 2,500 robberies targeting children for the year of 2019. According to a report out of Växjö, robberies targeting children have “increased significantly in recent years and young people with immigrant backgrounds are over-represented as perpetrators.” Commons items that are being stolen include cellphones, mopeds and jewelry. As I highlight in the video below, despite Sweden’s continuing problems with migrant crime, a 10-year-old’s idea to rename the country “Blandland” to more properly reflect Sweden’s new multicultural society was given positive coverage by the media. 

Freedom of movement for EU citizens coming to the UK will continue largely unchanged after a no-deal Brexit - The right for EU citizens to come and live and work in the UK will remain largely unchanged, even if Britain leaves without a deal at the end of October, Boris Johnson's government has conceded. Britain's new Home Secretary reportedly wants free movement to end completely the day after Brexit. However, Johnson's spokesperson said on Monday that while free movement "as it currently stands" would end after Britain's exit date of October 31, there were no plans yet in place for an entirely new system to replace it. When pushed on how exactly immigration rules would change at the end of October, Johnson's spokesperson could only point to increased criminality checks planned for EU citizens arriving in the UK. "We will introduce much tougher criminality rules for people entering the UK," his spokesperson said. "Details of other changes immediately after October 31 for a new immigration system are currently being developed and we will set out further plans on that shortly."

Brexit: PM to tell EU leaders to renegotiate deal - BBC - Boris Johnson will tell EU leaders there needs to be a new Brexit deal when he makes his first trip abroad as PM later this week.The UK will leave the EU on 31 October with or without a deal, he will insist.Meanwhile, the Sunday Times has printed leaked government documentswarning of food, medicine and fuel shortages in a no-deal scenario.A No 10 source told the BBC a former minister leaked the dossier to try to influence discussions with EU leaders. The documents say the cross-government paper on preparations for a no-deal Brexit, codenamed Operation Yellowhammer, reveals the UK could face months of disruption at its ports.It also states plans to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are unlikely to prove sustainable. The dossier, reported by the Sunday Times, says leaving the EU without a deal could lead to:

• Fresh food becoming less available and prices rising
• A hard Irish border after plans to avoid checks fail, sparking protests
• Fuel becoming less available and 2,000 jobs being lost if the government sets petrol import tariffs to 0%, potentially causing two oil refineries to close
• UK patients having to wait longer for medicines, including insulin and flu vaccines
• A rise in public disorder and community tensions resulting from a shortage of food and drugs
• Passengers being delayed at EU airports, Eurotunnel and Dover
• Freight disruption at ports lasting up to three months, caused by customs checks, before traffic flow improves to 50-70% of the current rate

The Downing Street source told the BBC the leaked document "is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available". Michael Gove, who is responsible for overseeing the devolution consequences of Brexit, said in a tweet that Operation Yellowhammer was "a worst case scenario".

UK government no-deal Brexit fears revealed in full -- A leaked U.K. government report paints a grim picture of the fallout from a no-deal Brexit, from medicines shortages, multimonth slowdowns at ports and threats to clean drinking water. Dubbed “Operation Yellowhammer,” the report prepared by the Cabinet Office and published by the Times imagines a “base scenario” on the Brexit crashout date of October 31, marked by unprepared business, hostile EU member countries and impending cold weather that could exacerbate food and medical supply problems.Further, the report notes the risk that “increasing EU Exit fatigue” could hamper contingency planning after the original March 29 Brexit date was postponed.A person quoted in the Times as a “senior Whitehall source” said: “This is not Project Fear — this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case.” The government said while it does not expect such outcomes, they are being looked at as part of no-deal preparations, according to the BBC. Kwasi Kwarteng, an energy minister who attends Cabinet, dismissed claims in the documents as “scaremongering” during an appearance on Sky News on Sunday. “The scale and intensity” of no-deal Brexit preparations “are increasing,” said Kwarteng, formerly an official in the Brexit department, “and we will be fully prepared to leave without a deal on the 31st of October.” Meanwhile, the government of Gibraltar said the briefings are “out of date,” adding that issues raised relating to the overseas territory have been “dealt with.”

No-deal Brexit edges closer as key Tories refuse to back Corbyn - Corbyn’s hopes of forming a unity government were fading on Friday as a number of prominent Conservatives working to stop no-deal Brexit ruled out any mechanism to put the Labour leader in No 10. Dominic Grieve, who has previously suggested he could vote against the government in a confidence vote, said he would not go as far as facilitating a Corbyn government. “Jeremy Corbyn is unfortunately a deeply divisive figure and in trying to stop a no-deal Brexit it is not my purpose to help him into Downing Street,” he said. Swinson dismissed Corbyn’s offer on Wednesday but has since said she is open to discussions, while warning that Labour would be unable to get enough Conservative votes – or votes from former Labour MPs sitting as independents – to make the plan viable even with Lib Dem support. Conservative MPs came under heavy pressure on Friday to distance themselves from Corbyn’s proposal. The former justice secretary David Gauke tweeted: “If anyone thinks the answer is Jeremy Corbyn, I think they’re probably asking the wrong question.” Other independent MPs also came out swinging against the Labour leader. Anna Soubry, the former Tory MP who now leads the Independent Group for Change, said her five MPs “will not support nor facilitate any government led by Jeremy Corbyn. “He cannot command unity of support amongst his own MPs but now Jeremy Corbyn calls on the rest of us to back him as ‘unity’ prime minister,” she said. “And we won’t even get a people’s vote but instead a general election which as we know will solve nothing.”

Boris Johnson lays down law to the EU: Prime Minister DEMANDS Brussels drops plan for ‘unviable’ backstop and replace it with a new legal commitment to avoid hard border in Ireland - Boris Johnson laid down the law to Brussels over the Irish backstop last night, demanding it be axed completely from Brexit negotiations. The Prime Minister told the EU the backstop was ‘simply unviable’ and should be replaced with a new legal commitment to avoid the return of a hard border. In a forthright letter to European Council president Donald Tusk, Mr Johnson said the backstop was ‘anti-democratic’, unsustainable as the basis for a long-term relationship and put the Good Friday Agreement at risk. He wrote: ‘The problems with the backstop run much deeper than the simple political reality that it has three times been rejected by the House of Commons. The truth is that it is simply unviable.’ Instead, he said, Britain and the EU should commit to finding ‘alternative arrangements’ to manage the Irish border by the end of a transition period. This essentially means a technology-based solution, or the so-called ‘MaxFac’ approach, to avoid a hard border. The Prime Minister’s letter to the EU came at the start of a crunch week for Britain’s hopes of a deal with the EU. Mr Johnson will fly to Berlin tomorrow for dinner with Chancellor Angela Merkel, before heading to Paris for lunch with French president Emmanuel Macron on Thursday. He will then attend a G7 summit in the French resort of Biarritz at the weekend. Last night, he clashed with Irish leader Leo Varadkar over the backstop issue for almost an hour during a telephone call. Mr Johnson warned the Taoiseach the Brexit deal would not get through the Commons unless it was changed. But Mr Varadkar refused, insisting the Withdrawal Agreement could be reopened.

Brexit no-deal funding ‘too little, too late’, says Portsmouth council leader - The government’s plans to give councils an extra £9m in additional funding for no-deal preparations have been criticised as “too little, too late” and “a drop in the ocean”, with the leader of Portsmouth council leader saying the city had spent £4m preparing for potentially thousands more lorries to use the port. The shadow communities secretary, Andrew Gwynne, said: “‘Too little too late’ doesn’t even begin to describe the government’s woeful level of support for councils’ no-deal preparations. The £9m promised last night to some coastal councils is a drop in the ocean when compared to the amount that councils across the country have already had to spend. “Beyond ports, so many of the vital services that our local authorities provide are put at risk by the government’s pursuit of a reckless no-deal Brexit and they have simply not received the support they need. “All of this takes place against a backdrop of nine years of savage cuts to local government funding. Councils are already at breaking point and this additional spending means even less money is available to spend on vital services such as adult social care, road maintenance or environmental protection.” Gerald Vernon-Jackson, the Liberal Democrat leader of Portsmouth council, said it had only been refunded £350,000 of its spending on no-deal preparations. The council has been advised that a two-minute delay in vehicles clearing in to the port could mean 60 extra lorries queueing on to the motorway. “The government has been happy to give money to ferry companies that have no ferries, that was £20m, but they have not helped local authorities get ready and we have had to plan to make sure if there is a no-deal Brexit that the whole of the M27 doesn’t grind to a halt because of queues of lorries trying to get into the port who can’t get in,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday.

A no-deal Brexit could unleash a flood of fake goods in the UK, retail expert says - There could be an “explosion” in goods sold via the grey market in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to a British retail expert. The term “grey market” refers to legitimate products sold via unauthorized — though legal — sellers, while a “black market” is when scarce products are traded illegally, or when goods are counterfeited. Michelle Whelan, chief executive of retail marketing agency Geometry U.K., told CNBC that if Britain exits the EU without a deal, the price of some legitimate products may rise by more than 10% due to scarcity. Unauthorized resellers that may have previously bought overstocked or out of season items in bulk may be able to undercut prices, especially online. “Here in the U.K., we’re used to open markets where we purchase goods from known and approved channels. With a ‘no deal’ there is a huge opportunity for a grey market explosion,” she told CNBC by email. “A no-deal Brexit and explosion of grey market websites via unauthorized dealer networks could continue to give us access to products we want at cheaper prices. With a deep enough search, all of us can find grey market websites catering for products such as shoes, watches, clothes, cameras, furniture, TVs, and more,” she added. Businesses prefer to sell their goods through authorized sellers or under licensing deals because it gives them more control over how items are presented and priced, but if products are sold on the grey market, via unauthorized (though legal) channels, they may be sold at a discount.

 Brexit: Backstop indispensable, Macron tells Johnson - Boris Johnson has met Emmanuel Macron in Paris for Brexit talks, with the French president saying the UK's vote to quit the EU must be respected. But he added that the Ireland-Northern Ireland backstop plan was "indispensable" to preserving political stability and the single market. The backstop, opposed by Mr Johnson, aims to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit. Mr Johnson said that with "energy and creativity we can find a way forward". On Wednesday German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the onus was on the UK to find a workable plan. UK Prime Minister Mr Johnson insists the backstop must be ditched if a no-deal exit from the EU on 31 October is to be avoided. He argues that it could leave the UK tied to the EU indefinitely, contrary to the result of the 2016 referendum, in which 52% of voters opted to leave. But the EU has repeatedly said the withdrawal deal negotiated by former PM Theresa May, which includes the backstop, cannot be renegotiated. However, it has previously said it would be willing to "improve" the political declaration - the document that sets out the UK's future relationship with the EU.

UK PC Police Draw The Line - Ban Cream-Cheese & Car Ads Over 'Gender Stereotypes' -- The United Kingdom's Ministry of Social Justice ad regulator has stricken two advertisements from the approved list for following longstanding gender stereotypes. On Wednesday, the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) announced that they "drew the line" over ads by Volkswagen and cream cheese maker Philadelphia for perpetuating the offensive stereotypes, according to DW.com. In Volkswagen's case, their ad featured men participating in adventurous activities, while women sat on a beach next to a baby buggy. According to the ASA, "images of men in extraordinary environments and carrying out adventurous activities" vs. "women who appeared passive" were stereotypical and not nice. Volkswagen pushed back against the judgement, arguing that their advertisement featured men and women "taking part in challenging situations." The Philadelphia cream cheese advert, meanwhile, featured two men easily distracted by the snack while forgetting about their babies, which the ASA said "implied that the fathers had failed to look after the children properly because of their gender," and "relied on the stereotype that men were unable to care for children as well as women."

Criminal gangs stealing catalytic converters for precious metals -- Thefts of catalytic converters from cars have “gone through the roof” in Ireland as a small number of travelling gangs cash in on the soaring price of precious metals contained in the devices, gardaí have said. Unofficial Garda figures suggest there has been more than a three-fold surge in the number of the car parts being stolen since last year. It is believed thieves have found a black market to sell them on – for up to €500 a part – leaving victims with repair bills that can run into thousands of euro. Precious metals in catalytic converters – part of the exhaust system which makes pollutants less harmful – can be recycled for use in jewellery, dentistry and electronics. The increase in thefts, often during daytime, echoes huge rises in the value of rhodium and palladium particularly, both common components in the exhaust devices. While prices fluctuate, some of the metals can trade at higher values than gold. “Catalytic converter thefts have gone mad,” the auto crime specialist told The Irish Times. “Last year, there was an average of 14 or 15 a month. In July alone this year there have been more than 50. There have been 28 in the first two weeks of August.”