week ending Aug 3

Trump Slams Fed- QT Was A Big Mistake And A Small Rate Cut Isn't Enough - With one day left until the FOMC begins its two-day monetary policy meeting - said to be the most important policy meeting since the days that immediately followed the financial crisis - President Trump once again slammed the Fed in a tweet, echoing a criticism that he has repeatedly used over the past few weeks.  Which is: That the Fed has failed to cut interest rates to get out ahead of central banks in Europe and China, despite the fact that stubbornly low inflation has left the Fed with every excuse to cut. The PBOC and the ECB will benefit from "pumping money into their systems, making it much easier for their manufacturers to sell product."The E.U. and China will further lower interest rates and pump money into their systems, making it much easier for their manufacturers to sell product. In the meantime, and with very low inflation, our Fed does nothing - and probably will do very little by comparison. Too bad!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2019 Trump's Fed-bashing apparently has one goal: To convince the central bank to authorize a 100 basis point rate cut, which would bring the Fed funds rate back between 1% and 1.5%.  Update: President Trump simply won't back down from bashing the Fed on Monday. In a series of two tweets sent just before the open, Trump alleged that the central bank "raised way too early and way too much" and that their "quantitative tightening" was "another big mistake."  And while the US is "doing very well" in terms of wealth creation, we could have done much better if the Fed hadn't rushed to keep hiking rates. Unfortunately, slashing rates by 25 bp simply isn't enough. "The Fed has made all of the wrong moves...a small rate cut isn't enough, but we will win anyway!"  (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2019

FOMC Preview --Expectations are the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25bp at the meeting this week.  Here are some comment from Professor Tim Duy: It’s Rate Cut Week Bottom Line: Look for 25bp from the Fed this week with a signal that they are prepared to do more but that they remain data dependent and are not committed to a specific policy path. And from Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius:  The FOMC will almost certainly cut the funds rate on July 31. We expect a 25bp move because virtually all of the signals from the committee point that way. … Growth, employment, and inflation remain close to the Fed’s goals and the data have consistently surprised on the upside since the June FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, financial conditions are already very easy, and our new analysis of the role of credit market sentiment suggests that further easing could raise financial stability concerns down the road. For these reasons, while a September cut remains our baseline, it is far from a done deal.   As Hatzius noted the data "have surprised  on the upside since the June FOMC meeting".  For review are the June FOMC projections.  Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, and Q2 at 2.1%.   So far this year, growth has been above the FOMC projections.

U.S. inflation and the case for interest rate cuts –  (Reuters) - U.S. inflation is running well below the Federal Reserve's informal target of 2%, which will give policymakers political and economic cover if they choose to cut interest rates this week. Prices for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by just 1.35% in the 12 months to June, according to estimates published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday. The core PCE deflator excluding volatile food and energy items as well as government-regulated prices, which is a cleaner measure of inflationary pressure within the economy, was up by just 1.56%. PCE inflation on both measures has eased significantly over the last year, mirroring the slowdown in the economy since the middle of 2018 ("Personal consumption and outlays", BEA, July 30). PCE deflators have long been the Fed's favourite inflation measures so policymakers could cite them to justify a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. But the PCE deflators also reveal the awkward dilemma in which rate-setters find themselves about whether to cut rates, and if so how aggressively, given that the economy is not currently in recession. The PCE all-items deflator has only been at or above the Fed's 2.0% target in 29 out of 126 months since the start of 2009 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2MvheFz ). The core market-based PCE deflator has only reached or exceeded the Fed's target in 8 out of 126 months since the start of 2009. So while the PCE deflators have eased significantly since mid-2018 they are not particularly low when judged against the record of the current business cycle. 

The Fed Might Not Cut Rates More Than Once - Bill Dudley, op-ed via Bloomberg - The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to make a monumental move: At its policy-making meeting this week, it will cut interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years. Many see this as just the first step in a new stimulus policy aimed at supporting a fragile economy. I’m not so sure. I think there’s a good chance the Fed won’t be cutting further anytime soon. Some think this week’s cut in the federal funds rate could be as large as half a percentage point. I don’t agree. There’s no consensus for such an aggressive move on the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, and the most recent data show the economy gaining momentum. Also, it might compromise the Fed’s independence, creating the impression that the central bank was caving to President Donald Trump’s insistent calls for deeper cuts. Even a quarter-point cut -- which is what I expect -- entails significant risks. What if, in hindsight, it proves to have been a mistake?Right now, the Fed is focused on the risk that the economy will slow and inflation will keep falling short of its 2% target. If this erodes people’s expectations of future inflation, it will undermine the central bank’s ability to provide stimulus. With inflation already low, it’s hard to justify any action -- including standing pat this week -- that could precipitate such an outcome. The public and the president would inevitably blame the Fed.Also, the Fed faces the question of how best to maintain its recession-fighting firepower at a time when interest rates are already much lower than they typically are at this stage in the economic cycle. Officials believe that earlier and more aggressive action is needed to ensure that the U.S. doesn’t end up like Japan, with interest rates stuck at zero. As Chair Jerome Powell put it, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That said, there’s another risk: that of needlessly stimulating the economy when it is already growing at an above-trend rate and pushing bond and stock prices to new and perhaps unsustainable heights. By focusing on downside threats such as the uncertainties of U.S. trade policy and foreign growth, the Fed might ultimately go too far. After all, the current level of short-term rates is already stimulative. If the economy maintains its momentum and inflation accelerates, the central bank could be forced to tighten again –- an abrupt about-face that could burst a financial bubble of the Fed’s own creation, increasing the chances of a painful recession.  All told, the case for lowering rates is less compelling now than it was when the Federal Open Market Committee last met in June. This doesn’t necessarily mean that an interest-rate decrease this week would be a mistake. But it does mean that market participants -- who are expecting a series of cuts over the next year or so -- might be in for an unpleasant surprise, because the Fed’s future moves will be more dependent on incoming economic data than they think. There’s a good chance that, after this week’s meeting, the central bank will be “one and done.”

 Fed cuts rate by a quarter point, cites ‘global developments,’ ‘muted inflation’ -The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter point Wednesday as an insurance policy not against what’s wrong with the economy now, but what could go wrong in the future. It was the first rate cut by the central bank in more than a decade. Amid President Donald Trump’s intense political pressure and persistent market expectations, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee dropped the target for its overnight lending rate to a range of 2% to 2.25%, or 25 basis points from the previous level. In approving the cut, the FOMC cited “implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures.” The committee called the current state of growth “moderate” and the labor market “strong,” but decided to loosen policy anyway. The stock market dove later in the afternoon when Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the cut was simply a “midcycle adjustment” and that the committee did not see the type of marked economic weakness that would necessitate a longer rate-cutting cycle. The rate is tied to most forms of consumer debt and is likely to almost immediately have an impact on lowering credit costs.

FOMC Statement: 25bp Decrease - FOMC Statement: (excerpts) Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.  In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Powell Pivot Complete - Fed Cuts Rates For First Time In 11 Years, Faces Two Dissents --Just over eight months since Fed Chair Powell panicked and pivoted as global stocks (and bond yields) tumbled, the flip-flop is complete as The Fed has cut rates (by 25bps) for the first time since Dec 2008 (and cut the IOER to 2.1% from 2.35%).  Additionally, the Fed ends the normalization of the balance sheet two months ahead of schedule. Fed praises US economy, blames rest of the world for cutting: "In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent" But in a bit of a shock, in addition to Esther George, who was widely expected to dissent, Eric Rosengren also joined the hawkish #resistance, wanting to leave rates unchanged. His dissent is what is spooking markets, because as RSM's Joseph Brusuelas notes, "Ms. George and Mr. Rosengren took one for the team and expressed their dissent on the rate cut, which is surely one of the more controversial in memory. Two dissents is very rare indeed and reflects the not so gentle split on the committee." Mission Accomplished Mr. Trump... but if stocks plunge here, expect Trump to slam Powell for not hiking rates 25bps..  From expectations of 100bps of rate-hikes priced-in in Nov 2018, Powell's massive pivot now markets pricing in 100bps of rate-cuts...

 Rosengren Lists Near Record Equity Prices As Reason Behind His Dissent - For the first time that we can remember, an FOMC member - Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren - listed the (record) level of the stock market as one of the reasons why he dissented from Wednesday's decision to cut rates as he found the case for cutting interest rates was not "compelling.""I do not see a clear and compelling case for additional monetary accommodation at this time,” he said in a statement Friday that listed 8 charts showing low unemployment, inflation likely to rise toward the Fed’s 2% target, and financial stability concerns "given near-record equity prices and corporate leverage" to wit: But what was most remarkable, as noted earlier, is the fact that Rosengren explicitly noted the level of the market, noting that "stock prices are near all-time highs" as one of the eight market-linked reasons not to cut. Why is this notable? Because this is an indirect admission that the Fed was responsible for pushing stock prices to all time highs with its easy policies; as a result cutting here will only lead to even higher asset prices (unless of course, Trump intervenes and launches World War III as he appears to have done).

The Fed's Unnecessary Rate Cut - If there is something that is evident is that the United States does not need a rate cut. With the economy growing at 2.1%, unemployment at 3.6%, creating 170,000 jobs per month, and estimated underlying core inflation of 2%, no objective data justifies cutting rates that are already artificially low. Wages are rising by 3% and credit growth for companies and families is solid.There is also no public sector financing problem. The 10-year US bond trades at a 2.05% yield, consistent with the country’s growth and inflation. In real terms, the United States borrows at almost no cost and without Federal Reserve support, as all bond demand comes from the secondary market.If the Federal Reserve cuts rates it can be for two reasons:

• One, because it expects a drastic and abrupt worsening of the economy, but that is apparently not the case, as the Fed itself talks of a “solid” economy.
• The second reason would be more concerning. The Federal Reserve would cut rates as a reactive measure against the monetary assault of the ECB (eurozone), the PBOC (China) and the BOJ (Japan).  That is because it is recognizing in a veiled way that we are in a dangerous bubble inflated by central banks, and that we are heading for a currency war. It is no surprise that the dollar index (the DXY) has risen despite expectations of lower rates and even repurchase of bonds via reinvestment of interests in the United States. When all major economies “copy” the Fed without having the financial balance, economic dynamism and global reserve currency of the United States, they are basically implicitly saying “buy dollars”.

Constant easing has created major imbalances, from asset bubbles to rising zombie companies (“Asset Bubbles to Zombie Companies: The Dark Side of Rate Cuts”). In the eurozone, there is a similar case. There is no need to cut rates and launch another stimulus, which by the way has never been abandoned, by the way, since all expirations are repurchased). The excess liquidity in the ECB exceeds 1.79 billion euros, rates are already negative and the eurozone governments issue debt at negative and artificially low yields. The credit market shows the risk of dangerous bubbles when the spread between junk and high-quality bonds has fallen to historic lows. The problem of stagnation of the eurozone and other economies has nothing to do with rates. Businesses and consumers are not going to take more credit or invest more due to a 0.5% change in already artificially depressed rates. The problem of stagnation in many economies is not due to lack of monetary stimulus but its excess. Zombie debt is perpetuated, overcapacity is maintained and malinvestment in high risk and low productivity sectors is encouraged.

Why The Fed Is Compelled To Cut Rates - Housing, Housing, Housing! - From 2008 through 2018, there were 4.4 million fewer births in the US than the US Census estimated there would be in its 2008 projection.  2018 US births were over 500 thousand fewer than those seen in 2007.  The sharp and ongoing 12% decline in births since 2007 is entirely contrary to the sharp increases in asset prices and economic activity...and the Census and Federal Reserve expectations.  The chart below details annual births (blue columns) and the fertility rate (black line).  During each previous economic upturn and financial bubble, the gains were widespread enough to incent a higher fertility rate and higher quantity of births...until the opposite result has been observed for over a decade in the current cycle.   So, what does this mean for housing?  On a net basis, nearly all housing is purchased by the 20 to 64yr/old population segment...so, the chart below shows their annual change (blue columns), housing permits (black columns), Federal Funds rate (yellow dashed line), and the 30 year mortgage (red dashed line).  The 20 to 64yr/old population saw twin annual growth peaks in 1981 and 1998, adding in excess of 2.2 and 2.4 million during those two years.  As for housing permits, they vacillated from 1 to 2.2 million annually from 1965 to 2005.  And everything, save for one, is about to get worse aside from the Federal Funds rate (and resultant mortgage rates) going down.  While valuations are through the roof, annual growth of potential buyers is a fraction of that seen in '98 or '05, foreigners have net ceased their purchasing partly due to relative dollar strength, and whether foreign or domestic, investing at these valuations with flattening rents simply no longer pencils.  By 2021, 20 to 64 year old growth is projected to be just 200 thousand annually (and this is entirely dependent on immigration, otherwise declines will rule).  On a monthly basis, this means less than 20 thousand new potential employees, less than 20 thousand new potential homebuyers, car buyers, etc. per month.  So, the next decade is one of essentially little to no growth among buyers (blue columns below) while potential sellers (65+ year olds, red columns) surge.  The case for full employment and minimal further working age population growth (and thus, minimal further jobs growth) is made HERE.  Anyone unsure of the Fed's motives in cutting interest rates need only look at the primary pillar of the US economy, the housing market, the decline of potential buyers versus surge in sellers.  The only remaining tool the Fed has is ZIRP and more likely NIRP to hammer mortgage rates to new record lows in an attempt to continue blowing the housing bubble and save the banks from their fate, otherwise.

Stocks plunge after Fed cuts rates for first time since 2008—here’s what experts are saying --It’s a Fed frenzy on Wall Street.  Stocks plunged after the Federal Reserve decided to slash its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, a highly anticipated decision seen by many asan “insurance cut” to hedge against hawkish U.S. trade policy and slowing global growth.  Some market watchers say it’s a turning point, one that could alter the layout of U.S. and global markets moving forward.Here’s what six experts had to say as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference got underway:  Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, told investors to “relax,”:“From a market perspective, an investing perspective, … the first thing I looked at when [the Dow Jones Industrial Average] triggered down 400 and change? I looked at the stocks that had big beats on earnings last week, and I wanted to see if those gaps would hold, and they did. The big companies that had a lot of good results, you didn’t see selling there. So, it was an index thing, it wasn’t an investor thing. … It’s algorithm. That’s OK. We’ve come to expect that. That’s 90% of trading now. … 100% [I would be a buyer on weakness], because [Powell]‘s saying two things: he’s saying it’s midcycle, it could be one-and-done, but then maybe it’s not. That’s what he should say. I’m not a fan of the press conference anyway. I think it’s unnecessary. He says one remark that he didn’t say last time and then we pin him down to that until the next meeting. So, I wish they weren’t doing it. In my day, we had a briefcase with papers falling out of it and we loved it. It was good enough. So, in this case, he’s saying both things, and that’s what he should do. ... If you’re going to be data dependent, we don’t have data in October yet, so why should he telegraph what he will do? He’s saying what he could do. Perfectly rational. ” Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos — who is also chief investment officer of the global macro division of Jefferies Investment Advisors — cut Powell some slack:  “First, the inflation side. I think that’s really where Jay [Powell] led us before. He didn’t lead us very well today on that, and I think that’s a little why the market’s reacting the way it is. It needed to hear more about this inflation undershoot, the framework change. He punted on that question. He could have done a much better job of saying, ‘Hey, we’re doing this because we’ve missed inflation for so long by so much,’ and I think people would have gotten the gist of what he was doing. He didn’t do it that well. Hopefully, he’ll do that well the next time.  He’s not the best articulator. He’s not the best communicator. He makes some off-the-cuff remarks that don’t work out so well sometimes. So, I think the market is also going to give him a break on that, and they did. And we’re back to kind of not down that much.”

Bernie, It’s Time to Audit the New York Fed --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - On July 21, 2011 the investigative arm of Congress, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), released the first-ever government audit of the Federal Reserve in its 98-year history. The audit came about as a result of the determined efforts of Senator Bernie Sanders to force transparency on the secretive Wall Street bailout actions of the Federal Reserve during the 2008 financial crash and the years that followed. Sanders successfully tacked an amendment on the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 that mandated a top-to-bottom audit of how much the Fed had spent on its bailout and the financial institutions to whom it went. In effect, the Federal Reserve bailout was conceived by Wall Street and run by Wall Street for its own benefit and controlled behind a dark curtain at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. After Bloomberg News had won at both the Federal District Court and Appellate Court to have some of the Fed’s lending data released to the public, the very banks that the Fed was bailing out with trillions of dollars in revolving, secret loans (Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo) formed a consortium called The Clearinghouse Association LLC, and filed an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court to stop the release of the data. The Supreme Court declined to hear the appeal and the Fed was forced to release some of the information in 2010. But even after the GAO released its audit in 2011 showing that the Fed had sluiced over $16 trillion to a hodgepodge of Wall Street banks, foreign banks and hedge funds, there was still plenty of secrecy.  The Levy Institute of Economics tried its hand at tallying up all of the Fed’s lending programs, including the single-tranche repurchase agreements (called ST OMO or single-tranche open market operations on the Street) and came up with a cumulative tally of $29 trillion. Equally scandalous, when the Fed released some of its data in 2010 it showed that $71 billion in loans had been made through one of its programs called the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). Billions of dollars from TALF had made its way directly into the pockets of hedge funds that had played a role in the collapse of the housing market by shorting subprime debt. But instead of providing a 2008 report on what was purchased, the New York Fed doesn’t produce a detailed listing of the asset holdings until January 2010. Our request to obtain a 2008 asset holdings report went unanswered.

PCE Price Index: June Headline & Core -The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for June was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.12% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.35% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.25% MoM and 1.60% YoY. Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019.The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. More recent FOMC statements now refer only to the two percent target. The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted.

Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9% From Merrill Lynch:  The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. [Aug 2 estimate]   From Goldman Sachs: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Aug 2 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 2 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent August 2, down from 2.2 percent on August 1. [Aug 2 estimate] CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the high 1% range annualized in Q3.

Endgame- Starting In 2024, All US Debt Issuance Will Be Used To Pay Only For Interest On Debt - While it is common knowledge that the US budget deficit is soaring even though the US economy is allegedly growing at a brisk, mid-2% pace (and yet the Fed is about to cut rates), resulting in recurring bond trader nightmares about funding the growing twin US deficits (Budget and Current Account), what few people know is the increasingly ominous composition of this budget deficit.As we first pointed out back in March, when looking at the US 'income statement', most concerning by far is that for the first four months of fiscal year 2019, interest payments on the U.S. national debt hit $221 billion, 9% more than in the same five-month period last year, with the rate of increase breathtaking (see chart below). As a reminder, according to the Treasury's conservative budget estimates, interest on the U.S. public debt is on track to reach a record $591 billion this fiscal year, more than the entire budget deficit in FY 2014 ($483 BN) or FY 2015 ($439 BN), and equates to almost 3% of estimated GDP, the highest percentage since 2011. In fact, as of June 30, US interest had already surpassed $600 billion.It only gets worse from there. As part of today's Treasury Presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, there is a chart showing the Office Of Debt Management's forecast for annual US debt issuance, broken down between its three component uses of funds: Primary Deficit, Net Interest Expense, and "Other." That chart is troubling because while in 2019 and 2020 surging US interest expense is roughly matched by the other deficit components in the US budget, these gradually taper off by 2024, and in fact in 2025 become a source of budget surplus (we won't be holding our breath). But what is the real red flag is that starting in 2024, when the primary deficit drops to zero according to the latest projections, all US debt issuance will be used to fund the US net interest expense, which depending on the prevailing interest rate between now and then will be anywhere between $700 billion and $1.2 trillion or more.

Overdosing On Crazy Pills – Chris Martenson - In the movie Zoolander Will Ferrell’s character, ‘Jacobim Mugatu,’ screams the line “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” because it seems nobody else sees what he does. I have that feeling nearly every day now. And it’s getting more frequent and intense. To the point where, some days, it feels like I’m in danger of overdosing on crazy pills.

• Crazy Pill #1: Financial bubbles happen. It’s just that they’re just not supposed to happen more than once a generation. How can so many people have completely forgotten the painful lessons of not one, but two, recent bubbles? The bursting of the DotCom bubble in 2000 was traumatic. “Eyeballs” were favored for a time over “earnings.” But then investors woke up to the fact that all of their rationalizations for the sky-high valuations of profitless companies were actually ridiculous. Okay, fine. Lesson learned. Earnings are actually important. But here we go, again, less than 20 years after the DotCom bubble (and only 10 years post-subprime bubble — both far less than a full generation later to allow the keepers of the memories a chance to die off) with exactly the same dynamic at play: In the pre-financialization era that ended a few decades ago, a more normal mix would have been roughly 15% of IPOs with negative earnings. Today it’s nearly 80%.
• Crazy Pill #2 I keep reading articles where hapless financial journalists try earnestly to make sense of a world that is now senseless. It must be terribly frustrating to see the impact the central bank bubble is having on distorting the markets, but your editors disallow you to point any of that out to your readers. A recent WSJ article noted that investors poured money into bond funds at a record pace in the first half of 2019. It then went on to explain this as a sign that investors might be cautious about the economy. Sure, that’s probably a fair conclusion during normal times. But not when crazy pills are being served buffet-style by the world’s central banks. Instead, we have to note that the world now has a whopping $13.7 trillion in negative yielding bonds – meaning record high bond prices – and negative earning IPOs both existing simultaneously. When investors are cautious, they move money out of stocks and into bonds, but that’s not what’s happening now. Money is flooding into both stocks and bonds. It’s concurrently a risk-on and a risk-off environment — which means its actually neither. It’s a bubble. A magnificently-deformed time of monetary excesses.
• Crazy Pill #3 By far the largest crazy pill I am taking, a horse-sized one that feels larger than my throat, concerns the serious consequences with society’s addiction to perpetual economic growth. There’s nothing wrong with growth per se. But if it becomes the mission instead of the strategy, then it’s cancerous and self-destructive. Virtually nobody in power ever questions the “need” for economic growth. It’s a universally understood imperative, especially among the banking class. Despite already having supremely frothy stock prices and negative bond yields that require mega-doses of crazy pills to even contemplate, the world’s central banks are desperately scrambling to justify easing more — to drive stock and bond prices to even frothier heights. And for what exactly? What’s so urgent, right here and now, about getting even more growth? 

Divided Senate passes 2-year budget deal with military boost ― The U.S. Senate sent the president a $2.7 trillion budget plan withroughly $45 billion more in military funding over two years, despite complaints from fiscal conservatives the measure would raise the federal deficit. The agreement — which passed 67-28 — has the support of President Donald Trump and bipartisan leaders from both chambers, but it sharply split Republicans in the final vote. Twenty-three Republicans voted “no,” and 30 voted “yes.”Trump is expected to sign the measure within a day, which is designed to prevent a partial government shutdown this fall and stabilize appropriations plans for all aspects of federal agencies until after next year’s presidential election.Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., argued the increase in defense spending ― to $738 billion in 2020 and $740 billion in 2021, from $716 billion this year ― justified the compromise with Democrats. After days of working to sway wavering Republicans, McConnell narrowly passed the measure. In the House last week, fiscal conservatives also found it a tough pill and the measure only drew support from only one-third of the House GOP membership. The $738 billion plan for defense spending next year falls short of what some claimed was needed to maintain military might. Only five Senate Democrats voted “no” on the deal Thursday.  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., urged colleagues to vote for the deal, saying it would “strengthen our national security and provide our troops with the resources they need” but also make critical investments in "child care, cancer research, our veterans, and more.” In the run up to the vote, Republican leaders acknowledged the deal as an imperfect, bipartisan compromise but sold it as a better alternative than both a debt limit crisis and the year-long continuing resolution the White House had floated. The deal also included an agreement to exclude “poison pill” riders, particularly those that restrict Trump’s ability to transfer money toward his border wall project. “Given the exigencies of a divided government we knew any bipartisan agreement on funding levels would not appear perfect to either side,” McConnell said. “But the administration negotiated a strong deal.” Citing the defense cap increase, McConnell also framed the deal as a departure from the years of “neglect and atrophy” for the military under the Obama administration, offering that, “Congress has worked hand-in-hand with the Trump Administration to begin writing a new chapter.”

Senate Democrats approve Trump war budget - The US Senate passed a budget for the fiscal year beginning October 1 that includes a record $738 billion for the military. The budget was the product of an agreement between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Trump White House, reflecting bipartisan support for the American war machine. Senate Democrats gave far more support to the Trump-Pelosi budget than Republicans, voting for it by 38-5, with four absent. Republicans divided much more closely, 30 for, 23 against, and one absent. Republicans were not opposed to the record spending on the military but objected to the level of spending for domestic social programs and the overall deficit. If the Democrats had voted against the budget by any significant margin, it would have been defeated. Of the seven Democratic senators running for president, four were absent from the vote, including Bernie Sanders, who declared during the Tuesday Democratic debate in Detroit that he would vote against the record military budget, but did not bother to return to Washington to cast his vote on Thursday. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker were also absent. Among the three Democratic presidential candidates who did return to the capital to vote, Kirsten Gillibrand backed the war budget, while Michael Bennet and Amy Klobuchar voted against. The Senate result mirrored that in the House, where Democrats provided a huge majority for the budget deal, 219-16, while most Republicans actually voted against the budget backed by Trump, 132-65. Among the House Democrats voting for the record war budget were Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, both members of the Democratic Socialists of America. The bipartisan legislation now goes to the White House for Trump’s signature. In a series of tweets over the past week, Trump has hailed the budget deal with Pelosi, singling out the record funding for the military as the principal gain made by the administration negotiating team, which was headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. In their final statements before the vote, both Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer endorsed the budget, but the Democrat was far more enthusiastic, while McConnell off-loaded responsibility for the deal onto the White House.

US Treasury Now Expects To Borrow Over $800 Billion In Debt In Two Quarters - One of the reasons why Trump and Congress were so quick to pass a debt ceiling deal last week is that had they failed to do so, with the Treasury's cash balance sliding precariously lower and expected to hit $0 by early September, there was a non-trivial chance the US could technically default by the time Congress came back from its August vacation.Of course, that did not happen, a debt ceiling extension deal was reached, and as a result the Treasury is now free to start reloading its cash balance, and it plans on doing just that. On Monday, the Treasury Department announced its latest quarterly estimates of net marketable borrowing needs for the current (July – September 2019) and upcoming (October – December 2019) quarters. What it revealed was the following:After borrowing just $40 billion in the past, April-June period, which left the Treasury with a quarter end cash balance of $264 billion, in the current quarter, the Treasury now expects Treasury issuance to explode higher, and borrow a whopping $433 billion in net marketable debt, a massive $274 billion higher - or more than doubling - its prior forecast announced in April 2019. The reason for this debt issuance flurry? To rebuild the cash balance back to a level of $350 billion, which is where the Treasury expects its end-of-September cash balance to be, up from just $85 billion as of the April 29 forecast.  Looking ahead, during the October – December 2019 quarter, the Treasury unveiled for the first time that it expects to borrow $381 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $410 billion with $310 billion of the new issuance going to cover financing needs. As for the past quarter, in April 2019, the Treasury estimated marketable borrowing of $30 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $270 billion. The change in borrowing resulted from lower net cash flows partially offset by the lower end-of-quarter cash balance due to the Treasury hitting the debt ceiling.   In other words, the Treasury will sell $814 billion in debt in the current and future quarter... and it will only gets worse from there.

Pentagon puts $10B contract on hold after Trump swipe at Amazon - Politico - The Pentagon is slamming the brakes on its mega-competition to award a $10 billion cloud computing contract after President Donald Trump suggested the Defense Department might have rigged the contest in favor of Amazon, a frequent target of his criticism.  Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who assumed his post July 23, is now reviewing accusations of unfairness in the fiercely fought competition, the Pentagon announced Thursday, marking the president's latest incursion into the arcane world of Defense Department contracting. Oracle has reportedly waged an aggressive lobbying campaign to push back on the competition, now pitting Amazon against Microsoft, including talking with members of Congress and preparing a graphic that made its way to the president's desk. "Secretary Esper is committed to ensuring our warfighters have the best capabilities, including Artificial Intelligence, to remain the most lethal force in the world, while safeguarding taxpayer dollars," Elissa Smith, a Pentagon spokesperson, said in a statement Thursday. "Keeping his promise to Members of Congress and the American public, Secretary Esper is looking at the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) program. No decision will be made on the program until he has completed his examination." The latest scrape once again pits Trump against Amazon, whose founder and CEO Jeff Bezos also owns The Washington Post and has become a growing powerbroker in the D.C. region. The review is expected to delay the award of the JEDI contract, which the Pentagon had hoped to award in August. JEDI would give the Pentagon a single, secure cloud computing system for data ranging from personnel statistics to intelligence information, instead of the more than 500 clouds used by different parts of the military today. The contracting process has been plagued by controversy that pre-dates Trump's involvement, including allegations by rival bidders that the competition unfairly favored Amazon because of perceived conflicts of interest. Companies have also raised issues with the Pentagon's decision to choose just one company for the contract, citing a lack of competition and security concerns. Four companies — Oracle, IBM Corp., Amazon and Microsoft — initially bid for the winner-take-all contract. Amazon and Microsoft are the only two finalists. Amazon and Microsoft both declined to comment.

On Costliest U.S. Warship Ever, Navy Can’t Get Munitions on Deck - Only two of 11 elevators needed to lift munitions to the deck of the U.S. Navy’s new $13 billion aircraft carrier have been fully installed, according to a Navy veteran who serves on a key House committee. “I don’t see an end in sight right now” to getting all the elevators working on the USS Gerald R. Ford, the costliest warship ever, Democratic Representative Elaine Luria of Virginia said in an interview. The ship was supposed to be delivered with the Advanced Weapons Elevators, which are moved by magnets rather than cables, working in May 2017. It’s another setback for contractor Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. -- and for the Navy, which had said in December it planned to complete installation and testing of all 11 elevators before the Ford completed its post-delivery shakedown phase this month, with at least half certified for operation. Instead, the shakedown phase has been extended to October and the vessel won’t have all the elevators fully installed -- much less functioning -- by then, according to Luria, a 20-year Navy surface warfare officer whose served on two aircraft carriers and as shore maintenance coordinator for a third. “Essentially, the ship can’t deploy,” Luria said. “It can’t carry ammunition.” She said the Navy and Huntington Ingalls are trying to solve new problems with doors and hatches lining elevators shafts that don’t meet specifications.

Military eyes 16-year-olds as ranks and candidates dwindle - The best way to fix the U.S. armed forces’ recruiting challenges may involve dipping further into the nation’s high schools.As the Army, Navy and other services contend with a thriving economy and a directive to expand their ranks, there is a growing debate over whether the military should consider lowering the minimum enlistment age from 17 to 16. More than a dozen countries, including the United Kingdom, already have adopted the policy.Critics say the idea is deeply flawed and presents a host of societal problems, but supporters argue that the Pentagon needs to think outside the box if it wants to continually overcome one of the toughest recruiting environments in decades.Neither the military nor lawmakers have given any indication that they are entertaining the idea, but some analysts say that opening the ranks to younger Americans could provide unique benefits and may be the kind of fundamental overhaul the recruiting system needs for the 21st century. “For one, many of the factors that disqualify older youths from joining — like criminal records — are not as present in younger teens,” said Shane McCarthy, chief marketing officer of Sandboxx, a leading technology platform that connects military members stationed abroad with families and friends at home. Mr. McCarthy also has advised military commands on how to better target recruits.

U.S. withdraws from Soviet-era nuclear missile accord with Russia (Reuters) - The United States formally withdrew from a landmark 1987 nuclear missile pact with Russia on Friday after determining that Moscow was violating the treaty, an accusation the Kremlin has denied. Washington signaled it would pull out of the arms control treaty six months ago unless Moscow stuck to the accord. Russia called the move a ploy to exit a pact that the United States wanted to leave anyway in order to develop new missiles. President Donald Trump told reporters he would like to seal a new arms deal with Russia reducing all nuclear forces, and possibly with China as well. “If we could get a pact where they reduce and we reduce nuclear, that would be a good thing for the world. I do believe that will happen,” Trump said. The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) was negotiated by then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. It banned land-based missiles with a range of between 310 and 3,400 miles (500-5,500 km), reducing the ability of both countries to launch a nuclear strike on short notice. The dispute is aggravating the worst U.S.-Russia friction since the Cold War ended in 1991. Some experts believe the treaty’s collapse could undermine other arms control agreements and speed an erosion of the global system designed to block the spread of nuclear arms. “The United States will not remain party to a treaty that is deliberately violated by Russia,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement.

 U.S. Imposes More Sanctions on Russia for Chemical Agent Use -- The U.S. imposed a second round of sanctions on Russia for using a banned nerve agent in an attempt to kill a former Russian spy in the U.K. in 2018. The measures will prohibit U.S. banks from participating in the issuance of Russian sovereign debt, the State Department and Treasury Department said in separate statements. The sanctions will take effect following publication of a Federal Register notice on or about Aug. 19, and will remain in place for at least 12 months. “The United States is announcing a second round of sanctions on Russia for its use of a ‘Novichok’ nerve agent in an attempt to assassinate Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia,” the State Department said. On Saturday, Treasury released a directive that prohibits U.S. banks from participating in the primary market for non-ruble denominated bonds issued by the Russian sovereign, or from lending it non-ruble denominated funds. That directive takes effect Aug. 26. The statements were the first official confirmation that sanctions for the Skripal poisoning was the purpose of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on chemical and biological weapons violations that the White House issued without comment late Thursday night. The move was a long time coming: the State Department had said in September that sanctions could be implemented in November but delays continued, worrying the Democratic chairman and top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Representatives Eliot Engel of New York and Michael McCaul of Texas wrote to Trump on July 25 that they were “deeply concerned sanctions have not been imposed on Russia as required by U.S. law.” The sanctions package also includes U.S. opposition to the extension of loans, or financial or technical assistance to Russia by international financial institutions such as the World Bank or International Monetary Fund, as well as the addition of export licensing restrictions on Department of Commerce-controlled goods and technology.

Trump Says N Korea Missile Tests Not A Violation Of Singapore Agreement - With the resurgence of US-China trade tensions and Friday's jobs number (which confirmed that US labor-market growth is beginning to slow) raising expectations for more Fed rate cuts just days after Fed Chairman Powell appeared to suggest during the Q&A that the July cut might be a "one and done", President Trump is finally getting around to addressing one of the other major developments from the past week that had, until now, seemingly gotten lost in the shuffle: North Korea.  Over the past couple of weeks, North Korea has carried out several short-range missile tests. Yesterday, we cited media reports that the Pentagon had tracked a projectile launched from North Korea early Friday morning (local time), citing an unnamed senior official, who further added it appeared similar to others launched over the past weeks. To be sure, Trump has taken news of these tests in stride. Following reports of the short-range missile launches, which, as Trump once again pointed out, don't violate Kim's agreement with Trump to refrain from ICBM launches, Trump reportedly appeared "unbothered" by Pyongyang's latest salvos. When asked if he was worried about them, he told a reporter "no, not at all." But in a series of tweets on Friday morning, the President warned Kim Jong Un not to "disappoint me with a violation of trust", adding that "there is far too much for North Korea to gain - the potential as a Country, under Kim Jong Un's leadership, is unlimited."However, "there is also far too much to lose." To fulfill Kim's "great and beautiful vision for his country" the North Korean leader needs "the United States, with me as President" to "make that vision come true." Trump finished by asserting that Kim "will do the right thing because he is far too smart not to, and he does not want to disappoint his friend, President Trump!" Kim Jong Un and North Korea tested 3 short range missiles over the last number of days. These missiles tests are not a violation of our signed Singapore agreement, nor was there discussion of short range missiles when we shook hands. There may be a United Nations violation, but......Chairman Kim does not want to disappoint me with a violation of trust, there is far too much for North Korea to gain - the potential as a Country, under Kim Jong Un’s leadership, is unlimited. Also, there is far too much to lose. I may be wrong, but I believe that...... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 2, 2019

Did Trump Just Threaten to Attack Iran With Nukes? - Scott Ritter - On Monday during a press conference between Donald Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Trump spoke rather casually of having reviewed plans to annihilate Afghanistan.“I could win that war in a week. I just don’t want to kill 10 million people,” Trump said. “I have plans on Afghanistan that if I wanted to win that war, Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth, it would be gone. It would be over in, literally, in 10 days. And I don’t want to go that route.”Trump’s seemingly blasé reference to a hypothetical mass murder on a scope and scale never seen in the history of mankind (it took Nazi Germany more than four years to kill six million Jews) was stunning. We know, given the state of play in Afghanistan, that it will never happen. But it wasn’t offhand. Such a policy of total destruction could also be seen as applying to Iran, and the potential for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a U.S.-Iranian conflict is far from hypothetical. He knew exactly what he was doing There is a tendency among observers of the Trump White House to be dismissive of the daily barrage of outlandish statements and tweets. Reporters who cover him have grown so inured to this endless stream of hyperbole that they forget that this man is the commander in chief of the greatest military force in history, possessive of enough nuclear firepower to destroy the world a hundred times over.

US and Iran Stuck on Negotiation Ground Zero  - Pepe Escobar. All bets are off in the geopolitical insanity stakes when we have the President of the United States (POTUS) glibly announcing he could launch a nuclear first strike to end the war in Afghanistan and wipe it “off the face of the earth” in one week. But he’d rather not, so he doesn’t have to kill 10 million people.Apart from the fact that not even a nuclear strike would subdue the legendary fighting spirit of Afghan Pashtuns, the same warped logic – ordering a nuclear first strike as one orders a cheeseburger – could apply to Iran instead of Afghanistan.Trump once again flip-flopped by declaring that the prospect of a potential war in the Persian Gulf “could go either way, and I’m OK either way it goes,” much to the delight of Beltway-related psychopaths who peddle the notion that Iran is begging to be bombed.No wonder the whole Global South – not to mention the Russia-China strategic partnership – simply cannot trust anything coming from Trump’s mouth or tweets, a non-stop firefight deployed as intimidation tactics.At least Trump’s impotence facing such a determined adversary as Iran is now clear: “It’s getting harder for me to want to make a deal with Iran.” What remains are empty clichés, such as Iran “behaving very badly” and “the number one state of terror in the world” – the marching order mantra emanating from Tel Aviv. Even the – illegal – all-out economic war and total blockade against Tehran seems not to be enough. Trump has announced extra sanctions on China because Beijing is “accepting crude oil” from Iran.   “OK either way” is exactly the kind of response expected by the leadership in Tehran. Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran confirmed to me that Tehran did not offer Trump a “renegotiation” of the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal, in exchange for the end of sanctions: “It’s not a renegotiation. Iran offered to move forward ratification of additional protocols if Congress removes all sanctions. That would be a big win for Iran. But the US will never accept it.”

U.S. Sanctions Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif as Tensions Rise - The Trump administration on Wednesday imposed sanctions against Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in a provocative move that diminishes the prospects for a diplomatic solution to rising tensions that have brought the U.S. and Tehran to the brink of war. The U.S. said Zarif, viewed as Iran’s most skilled diplomat, acts on behalf of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was previously sanctioned. “Javad Zarif implements the reckless agenda of Iran’s Supreme Leader and is the regime’s primary spokesperson around the world,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement. “The United States is sending a clear message to the Iranian regime that its recent behavior is completely unacceptable.” Tensions have been flaring around the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as Iran lashes out against U.S. sanctions that are crippling its oil exports. Iran is producing oil at the slowest clip since 1986, making U.S. sanctions one of the toughest challenges confronting Iran’s economy since the 1979 revolution. The largely symbolic sanctions won’t prevent Zarif from traveling to the United Nations in New York for official business. The penalties would block Zarif’s access to any property the has in the U.S., though he said in a tweet that he has none so the sanctions will have no effect.

Iran mocks Pompeo’s offers to visit - Iranians are widely considered among the most hospitable people in the Middle East, willing to invite random strangers to dine with them in their homes.But Iran’s leaders aren’t quite ready to roll out the red carpet for Mike Pompeo.The secretary of State in recent days has been urging Iran’s Islamist government to let him visit the country. He says he wants a chance to tell ordinary Iranians “the truth, unfiltered, unabridged” about the oppressive clerics who rule them.The biting Iranian response came Wednesday.“Instead of making empty and disingenuous offers, @SecPompeo can accept any of the many requests from Iranian reporters to interview US officials,” tweeted Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. “He has refused til now, as he knows he has to be accountable to rigourous [sic] questioning—the very same way I am by the US media.”The barbed exchange came the same day the U.S. imposed sanctions on Zarif. Itis the latest variation of an information war both sides are waging amid a broader face-off that has escalated since President Donald Trump quit the Iran nuclear deal last year. The issue of visiting each other’s countries surfaced earlier this month, when Zarif came to New York for meetings at the United Nations.“We aren’t afraid of [Zarif] coming to America where he enjoys the right to speak freely,” Pompeo wrote Sunday on Twitter. “Are the facts of [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s] regime so bad he cannot let me do the same thing in Tehran?”

U.S. preparing to withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan in initial deal with Taliban - WaPo - The Trump administration is preparing to withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan in exchange for concessions from the Taliban, including a cease-fire and a renunciation of al-Qaeda, as part of an initial deal to end the nearly 18-year-old war, U.S. officials say. The agreement, which would require the Taliban to begin negotiating a larger peace deal directly with the Afghan government, could cut the number of American troops in the country from roughly 14,000 to between 8,000 and 9,000, the officials said. That number would be nearly the same as when President Trump took office. The plan has taken shape after months of negotiations between the Taliban and Zalmay Khalilzad, an Afghan-born American diplomat who was appointed by the Trump administration last year to jump-start talks. Officials said an agreement could be finalized ahead of the Afghan presidential election in September, though they cautioned that Taliban leaders could delay and that significant challenges remain. The proposal is likely to be viewed skeptically by some U.S. and Afghan officials who question the Taliban’s honesty and wonder how the United States can verify whether Taliban leaders are following through. But if approved, it would be one of the most significant steps toward ending the war, a goal that increasingly has bipartisan support. “I would say that they are 80 or 90 percent of the way there,” said one official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss details of the emerging deal. “But there is still a long way to go on that last 10 or 20 percent.”

Weaponizing Space Is The New Bad Idea Coming From Washington D.C - The United States, Russia and China all have cutting-edge programs for the militarization of space, though with a big difference. Donald Trump’s announcement of a “Space Force” is by no means a new idea. During the Reagan presidency, a similar idea was proposed in the form of the famous “Star Wars“ program, formally known as the Strategic Defense Initiative. It aimed to do away with the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) by positioning anti-ballistic-missile (ABM) interceptors in low-Earth orbit in order for them to be able to easily intercept ballistic missiles during their entry into orbit and before their re-entry phase. The costs and technology at the time proved prohibitive for the program, but military planners retained the dream of negating the concept of MAD in Washington’s favor, especially with the dawning of the unipolar era following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The decisions taken in the years since, such as the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 during Bush’s presidency and from the INF Treaty during Trump’s, follows Reagan in trying to invalidate MAD, a balance of terror that has served to maintain a strategic stability. This hope of doing away with MAD so that the unthinkable may become thinkable has guided the missile developments of Russia and China, which through the development of hypersonic missiles aim to nullify the US’s ABM systems and thereby make the thought of an unreciprocated nuclear first strike MAD again. With Russia’s recent successes in testing hypersoning technologies, and the fast-tracking of other new strategic weaponsannounced by Putin less than 12 months ago, strategic stability seems to have been restored through Russia’s strengthened deterrence posture. The weaponization of space is a less known and talked about aspect of Washington’s mad attempts to make mutually assured destruction no longer mutual and therefore thinkable. During the peak of the unipolar moment, the idea of the Pentagon and the lobbyists of the military-industrial complex was to develop the so-called Prompt Global Strike system, which envisioned being able to deliver an air strike with conventional weapons anywhere in the world in the space of an hour. The dream (or delusion) of the US was to have the unique ability to determine the course of events around the globe within an hour. Such experimental craft as the Orbital Test Vehicle seem to confirm that serious efforts have been underway to realize this objective.

Trump's friend tried to profit from Middle East nuclear deal, lawmakers say  - A billionaire friend of Donald Trump pursued a plan to buy Westinghouse Electric Corp – even as he lobbied Trump to become a special envoy and promote the company’s work on nuclear power in Saudi Arabia, a congressional report released on Monday. While Tom Barrack failed in both efforts, the report provides fresh evidence of the ease with which some corporate and foreign interests have gained access to the US president and other senior members of his administration. Documents obtained by the Democratic-led House oversight committee raise “serious questions about whether the White House is willing to place the potential profits of the President’s friends above the national security of the American people and the universal objective of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons”, the report said. The report is the second from the panel’s investigation into the plan to construct 40 nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East. The plan was supported by Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn; Barrack, Trump’s inaugural committee chairman; and a consortium of companies led by retired US military commanders and former White House officials called IP3. Trump’s cronies are in secret talks to sell nuclear tech to Saudi. The risks are clear Read more One company was Westinghouse, the only US manufacturer of large reactors, which was bought out of bankruptcy by Brookfield Asset Management last August. The report comes alongside a number of other investigations into the administration being conducted by the panel chaired by the US representative Elijah Cummings – including into the use of personal texts and emails for official business by Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and her husband, Jared Kushner.

Trump Adviser Tom Barrack Pushed for Saudi Nuclear Deal — and Planned to Profit From It -- President Donald Trump’s inauguration chairman, Tom Barrack, lobbied the new administration to share nuclear power technology with Saudi Arabia while, at the same time, making plans to team up with the Saudis to buy a company that would benefit from the policy change, according to documents obtained by a House committee. During the campaign, Barrack advised Trump on the Middle East, where he has long-standing business relationships. As Trump clinched the Republican nomination in 2016, Barrack shared a draft of a policy speech with a businessman from the United Arab Emirates, according to text messages quoted in the committee’s report. The businessman then consulted with unspecified others and suggested adding a paragraph praising the powerful princes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the text messages show. Barrack incorporated the suggested language and sent a new draft to campaign chairman Paul Manafort, according to the report. In an email, Barrack seemed to suggest he knew he was entering an ethical or legal gray area: “This is probably as close as I can get without crossing a lot of lines,” he said. On the day of the speech, Manafort sent Barrack a final draft, saying, “It has the language you want.” The Democratic staff of the House Oversight Committee said the documents it received — 60,000 pages from various private companies — do not show whether candidate Trump was aware that his speech had been circulated to at least one foreign official. The report also does not indicate why Barrack wanted foreign input on the speech.But Barrack, a billionaire investor, went on to pursue a lucrative deal based on the Trump administration’s Middle East policy, a policy that he was helping to shape. Barrack’s plan, according to the documents, was for his firm and other U.S. investors to join with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to buy Westinghouse, the struggling U.S. manufacturer of nuclear reactors. At the same time, Barrack used his access to the White House to urge top officials to give Westinghouse permission to sell as many as 30 nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Criticizing Israel Means You Believe in Human Rights — Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump try to shut down criticism of Israel with accusations of anti-Semitism.During a radio interview with Ibrahim ‘Ebro’ Darden on New York station Hot 97 FM, Ocasio-Cortez said: “The Right wants to advance this notion that if you engage and critique an Israeli policy you are anti-Semitic, but it’s the furthest thing from the truth.”“Criticising the occupation doesn’t make you anti-Israel, frankly. It doesn’t mean that you are against the existence of a nation.”“It means that you believe in human rights, and it’s about making sure that Palestinian human rights are equal to Israeli human rights, and there are a lot of troubling things happening there.” The radio host referred to the occupation of Palestine as ”criminal” and ”unjust”, to which Ocasio-Cortez agreed, and said she didn’t believe that the marginalisation of Palestinians created safety for Jewish people. She went on to say: “I believe that injustice is a threat to the safety of all people, because once you have a group that is marginalised and marginalised and marginalised — once someone doesn’t have access to clean water, they have no choice but to riot, right? And it doesn’t have to be that way.” Present also was Radio DJ Peter Rosenberg, who is himself Jewish.  He commented: “What bothers me, AOC [Ocasio-Cortez], is that I resent so much the way Israel and Jews get thrown around as like a card.”“What offended me was when [Donald Trump] said ‘they don’t like Jews, they’re anti-Semites’.”

 Starvation as a Weapon: US Targets Venezuela CLAP Program -  Last week the United States Department of Treasury placed new sanctions on multiple individuals and businesses connected to the Bolivarian government’s Local Committees for Supply and Production program (in Spanish Los Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción). The program, better known as CLAP, began in early 2016 as a response to the US sanctions already in place at the time. The CLAP program was meant as a way for the revolutionary government, with the help of local organizations, such as the communes, to do home deliveries of staple food items. At the time of its inception, CLAP was made to guarantee that no matter whatever intensity of economic war on Venezuela the state would work with anyone willing citizens to ensure the delivery of the CLAP food boxes. However, CLAP has also been a target of imperialist propaganda and economic attack since its inception as well. Beyond just the sanctions and restrictions on almost all foodstuffs going into Venezuela, CLAP, in particular, has been targeted by the US media for years on the grounds that the government providing a service to the poor is basically “buying votes.” While this logic that “giveaways” are equivalent to bribery makes sense to imperialist politicians whose only belief is austerity along with crushing the political imagination and aspirations of their neoliberal subjects, these lies haven’t really worked on Venezuelans. Instead, the CLAP program has actually been expanded to get CLAP boxes to millions of families. CLAP also underwent more recent reforms earlier this year when changes were made to improve the distribution system and internal accounting.  The 2019 reforms also increased the number of Popular Markets “where items such as vegetables, tubers, roots, fruit and animal protein will be distributed” with the intent attending to “each of the parishes in the most populous sectors.” This was helped by the creation of Municipal Markets, which meant establishing localized production of all the staple food items for the CLAP program, a step that could further decentralize CLAP.

Asked About China & Iran In Venezuela, Trump Signals US Blockade Coming --How much more US "pressure" can be brought to bear on Venezuela after Washington early this year went so far as to back a failed military coup attempt? Perhaps the Syria treatment: after covert war comes the long "blockade" and economic squeeze precipitating total societal collapse. Perhaps this is what the White House now has in mind after mainstream media attention on Venezuela and its 'alt-president' Juan Guaido has dropped off a cliff, via Reuters:  U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was considering a quarantine or blockade of Venezuela, as the United States steps up pressure on President Nicolas Maduro to relinquish power.Is this in addition to the near total oil blockade on state-owned PDVSA? No details were given in the Thursday statement in terms of what such a "quarantine" or "blockade" would look like.  However, an interesting reference to powerful external backers of the Maduro government was made, bringing up the possibility of a "proxy war" situation developing, as we've discussed previously. Reuters continued:  Asked by a reporter whether he was considering such a measure, given the amount of involvement by China and Iran in Venezuela, Trump said: “Yes, I am.” He gave no details. And there it is. While confirmation has remained murky, over the past months there's been widespread reports of Chinese and Russian military advisers working with the Venezuelan national forces.

US-China Trade Talks Collapse After Half A Day Of Negotiations - That didn't take long. After roughly half-a-day of negotiations, the US trade delegation broke off talks with its Chinese counterparts and is already on its way back to Washington, a sign that no new progress was made, and that trade talks between the US and China remain at an impasse. According to Bloomberg, US delegates including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrapped up talks with Vice Premier Liu He and their other Chinese counterparts on Wednesday afternoon at the Xijiao State Guest Hotel in Shanghai, according to a pool report.As the talks ended, China's Ministry of Foreign Trade issues a response to President Trump, who has been warning the Chinese not to keep stalling on the talks.In response to a question about Trump's tweets, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that although she was not aware of the latest developments during the talks, it was clear it was the US that continued to "flip flop.""I believe it doesn’t make any sense for the US to exercise its campaign of maximum pressure at this time. It’s pointless to tell others to take medication when you’re the one who is sick," Hua said. The People’s Daily, mouthpiece of the Communist Party, also responded to Trump on Wednesday with a commentary saying that China has no motive to “rip off” the U.S. and has never done so, and China won’t make concessions against its principles on trade.

China, U.S. Plan Next Round of Trade Talks for September - U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators plan to meet again in early September, as the latest round of negotiations ended with few signs of concrete progress. U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrapped up talks with their Chinese counterparts including Vice Premier Liu He Wednesday afternoon in Shanghai. The White House in a statement specified Washington as the location for the next round of talks, and said the sides held “constructive” talks this week over “forced technology transfer, intellectual-property rights, services, non-tariff barriers, and agriculture.” “The Chinese side confirmed their commitment to increase purchases of United States agricultural exports,” according to the U.S. statement. The negotiators from Beijing and Washington discussed increasing China’s import of agriculture products from the U.S. based on its needs and favorable conditions from America, state-run news agency Xinhua reported. Chinese state media on Thursday struck a united tone in commentaries on Thursday, emphasizing that two nations need to cooperate rather than confront each other, and repeating lines that trade talks are difficult and need to be conducted on the basis of equality and mutual respect. The latest round of talks took place against a backdrop of a fresh outburst by President Donald Trump, who, as delegates gathered Tuesday, let fly at China’s perceived unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to “rip off” the U.S. The People’s Daily, mouthpiece of the Communist Party, responded to Trump on Wednesday with a commentary saying that China has no motive to “rip off” the U.S. and has never done so, and China won’t make concessions against its principles on trade. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the drag from the trade war during a news conference Wednesday after the U.S. central bank cut rates for the first time in more than a decade. “Trade policy uncertainty has been more elevated than we anticipated,” he told reporters. The secondary effects of tariffs, especially the knock to business confidence, have had more impact on the economy than the tariffs themselves, he said.

Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods as talks continue - President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. is putting 10% tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1. “Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country...We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!” Trump said in a tweet on Thursday. The surprise tariff announcement came after the U.S. and China restarted trade talks in Shanghai this week, the first in-person trade talks since a G-20 truce. The White House said Wednesday before this Trump tweet that the meetings were “constructive,” adding that China confirmed its commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural exports. Trade negotiations will continue in Washington in early September, according to the White House statement.The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged as much as 304 points Thursday after the news, erasing the 311-point gain earlier in the day.It’s unclear what has caused Trump to end the trade war cease-fire with these new tariffs. The tweet comes in the wake of a meeting Thursday morning at which the president got a report from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on their meetings in Shanghai this week, a White House official told CNBC’s Eamon Javers.Trump said later in the day that the new tariffs could be raised to above 25%.The trade battle between the world’s two largest economies has dragged on for more than a year and a half. Trump shocked the markets in May by hiking tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated and said a trade deal will not be reached unless the existing duties were stripped.Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products remains a big sticking point in the trade conflict. Trump claimed Thursday that China agreed to buy “in large quantities, but did not do so.” China, however, insisted millions of tons of U.S. soybeans have been shipped to China since July 19, and many companies have made orders for American soybeans, cotton, pork and sorghum, Chinese state media Xinhua said.

Trump escalates trade war against China - US President Trump has taken the US trade war against China to a new level with his decision yesterday to impose a 10 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion worth of goods, effective September 1, coupled with a warning that it could go much higher. The new tariff is in addition to the 25 percent tariff already in place on $250 billion worth of goods and its impact will be significant because it covers a wide range of consumer products not previously subject to levies. The decision means that essentially all Chinese imports into the US are now subject to a tariff. Announcing the decision in a series of Twitter posts, Trump said China had “agreed to buy agricultural products from the US in large quantities, but did not do so.” Additionally, he said China had agreed to stop the sale of Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, to the US but this “never happened.” Trump described the tariff as a “small additional levy” but later indicated that it could increase in stages and may go “well beyond” 25 percent in the future. While the new tariff rate is less than those imposed so far, it represents the most significant escalation of the more than year-long trade war because previous measures were largely confined to industrial products. The new measures will cover products ranging from smartphones, clothing, toys and a range of other consumer goods. The only products to be excluded will be select categories, including medical supplies. The decision brought an immediate reaction on Wall Street as markets took a dive.

Trump’s new tariffs show he’s reading China all wrong, risk consultancy warns -- U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprising move to impose more tariffs on China is a serious misreading of China’s pressure points, according to Eurasia Group analysts. The latest escalation signaled a return to the way Trump negotiated with China — by trying to build more leverage over Beijing amid ongoing talks — before both sides agreed to a ceasefire in late June, Michael Hirson, Paul Triolo and Jeffrey Wright wrote in a Thursday note. “The threat is a serious gamble for Trump,” they said. “It likely signals that he would prefer to reach a deal on his terms before the 2020 election, and is willing to use the tools at his disposal to build pressure on China to that end.” Trump said Thursday that the U.S. will put 10% tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods starting Sept. 1. In a series of tweets, the president complained that China did not buy “large quantities” of agricultural products from the U.S. like it had agreed to do, and that it did not stop the sale of Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, to the United States. China, however, insisted millions of tons of U.S. soybeans have been shipped to the country since July 19, and many companies have made orders for American soybeans, cotton, pork and sorghum, Chinese state media Xinhua said. The announcement came just a day after both sides wrapped up a round of trade talks in Shanghai, with plans to continue the negotiations in Washington in September. ‘Extremely embarrassing’ for China to concede The Eurasia Group analysts said it is possible that Thursday’s tariff threat is meant to spur China into buying more American agricultural products but, they added, Beijing is unlikely to respond the way Trump hopes. It would be “extremely embarrassing for China to step up imports from the U.S. under the threat of blackmail,” they wrote.

Beijing responds to Trump’s new $300 billion tariff threat - China’s foreign ministry pushed back against President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat on Friday, reportedly saying the world’s largest economy should give up its illusions, shoulder some responsibility and come back to the right track on resolving the trade war.China’s spokesperson at the foreign ministry, Hua Chunying, said at a daily press briefing that Beijing would have to take countermeasures if the U.S. was committed to putting more tariffs on Chinese goods, Reuters reported.She added that while China did not want a trade war with the U.S., it was not afraid of fighting one.In a series of tweets on Thursday, Trump announced another round of tariffs on the roughly $300 billion of Chinese goods that had not already been targeted by American levies. The charge will take effect from September 1. The move breaks a truce in the long-running trade war between Washington and Beijing, with investors fearful it could further disrupt global supply chains.The tariff threat also came as a surprise to financial markets, in large part because negotiators for the two sides had just met earlier this week in China. It means that all Chinese goods entering the U.S. will be subject to some sort of duties. While the actual price tag of the latest action is technically just $30 billion, or about 0.14% of GDP (gross domestic product), there may be a significant psychological shift for the global economy as many wonder whether trade war will long remain the status quo.

‘It’s unclear what the end game is,’ former US ambassador says of Trump’s trade war with ChinaU.S. President Donald Trump has been extremely unpredictable and it’s not clear what the end game of his trade war with China will be, a former American ambassador told CNBC on Friday. Trump has been “wildly unpredictable in many ways with one exception,” said David Adelman, former U.S. ambassador to Singapore from 2010 to 2013 during the Obama administration. “He views trade, and he views even security issues, as a zero sum game — if he sees one country benefiting or one of America’s counterparties benefiting, he makes the assumption that it must be coming at the cost of the American economy.” “So I think it’s not too far-fetched to see the President begin to look around the world and use this very blunt instrument to prosecute his case,” added Adelman, who is now partner at Reed Smith, a law firm. His comments came after Trump announced Thursday that the U.S. is placing 10% tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1. In May, the U.S. raised tariffs from 10% to to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports. The tariff announcement surprised markets and sent major indexes in the U.S. and Asia reeling, as Washington and Beijing had just restarted tariff negotiations in Shanghai this week — the first in-person trade talks since a truce in late June. The White House had said after those meetings that negotiations were “constructive” and that China had confirmed its commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural exports.

China Accuses US Of Orchestrating Hong Kong Protests - Around the same time that the White House hinted that a military conflict may be imminent in Hong Kong after it said it was monitoring what a senior administration official called a "congregation of Chinese forces" on Hong Kong’s border, China's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday claimed the recent protests in Hong Kong are "the work of the U.S.," adding that the United States owes the world an explanation. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "thinks that the recent violence in Hong Kong is reasonable because everyone knows that this is the work of the U.S.," spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a regular press briefing, referring to when Pompeo said China should "do the right thing" in dealing with protests in Hong Kong, in an interview with Bloomberg Television last week. According to Kyodo, as evidence Hua provided examples of recent U.S. "interference" in which, she claims U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton and Pompeo met with opposition figures multiple times throughout the weeks-long protests over a controversial extradition bill. And while some may be quick to dismiss her allegations, it was similar "interference" by the US state department that was observed in Ukraine just days before the fateful Maidan protests that brought down the president and thanks to Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland, set the world on its current path of cold war-era confrontation between the US and Russia, which in turn has virtually assured another global military conflict in the future."There have been many American faces in the violent parade in Hong Kong, and even some American flags," Hua said.In urging the United States to "let go" of the Hong Kong issue, Hua warned, "Those who play with fire only get themselves burned."China's remarks came just hours before the ministerial-level trade talks between the two nations in Shanghai collapsed without even a glimmer of progress after just a few hours of discussions, with the future of trade negotiations in limbo.

Trump uncorks French wine threat in digital tax retaliation -  US President Donald Trump vowed "substantial" retaliation against France on Friday for a tax targeting US tech giants, hinting he may slap tariffs on French wine and blasting President Emmanuel Macron's "foolishness." "France just put a digital tax on our great American technology companies," Trump tweeted about the law, which targets US giants like Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon. "We will announce a substantial reciprocal action on Macron's foolishness shortly," he said. A proud teetotaler who says he has never even drunk a beer, Trump heavily hinted that the countermeasure might hit one of France's export crown jewels: wine. "I've always said American wine is better than French wine!" the president said. French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire indicated that Paris was not intimidated. "Universal taxation of digital activities is a challenge for us all. We want to reach an agreement within the G7 and the OECD. In the meantime, France will implement its national decisions," Le Maire said. Trump has generally got along well with Macron, avoiding some of the more stormy episodes marring traditionally stable relations with other close US allies in Europe and Asia. But his drive to correct what he sees as unfair trade practices by allies and rivals alike has stirred unprecedented discord. And this is not the first time that he has mused about taking aim at France's renowned wine industry. In June, he told CNBC television that domestic wine makers had complained to him about the difficulties of entering the European market. "You know what? It's not fair. We'll do something about it," he said.

Trump announces deal to expand US beef exports in the EU — and jokes about Mercedes, BMW tariffs - President Donald Trump announced an agreement Friday to boost beef exports to the European Union. Surrounded by trade officials and beef industry representatives at the White House, Trump signed a deal to “lower trade barriers in Europe and expand market access for American farmers and ranchers.” Over the course of the agreement, annual duty-free U.S. beef exports to the EU are expected to nearly triple to $420 million from $150 million, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. “This is a tremendous victory for American farmers, ranchers and of course, European consumers,” the president said at the White House as he unveiled the deal. The agreement comes as the agriculture industry has taken a hit from Trump’s ongoing trade war with China. The president has tried to limit the economic and political damage from the conflict ahead of the 2020 election. His administration recently announced details of a $16 billion aid package for farmers affected by the trade conflict. On Thursday, he threatened to put 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in September — a move that would raise prices on many consumer products. Through the beef agreement, Trump in part aims to de-escalate trade tensions with the European Union. Earlier this year, the administration delayed a decision on slapping duties on European cars and auto parts. He put a momentary scare into European officials at the White House on Friday when he brought up car tariffs unprompted. “We’re working on a deal where the European Union will agree to pay a 25% tariff on all Mercedes-Benzes, BMWs coming into our nation, so we appreciate that,” the president said. “I’m only kidding,” he continued, sparking laughter in the room. “They started to get a little bit worried. Thank you. Congratulations. Best beef in the world, thank you very much!”

Trump threatens unilateral action against World Trade Organization - President Trump has widened the scope of the US trade war, taking aim at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the “developing” country status it gives to China and other countries under agreements reached when it was established in 1995, replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The Trump administration has criticised the provision for some time, saying it gives China and other countries an unfair advantage under conditions where vast changes have taken place in the global economy over the past quarter-century. The criticism has now led to a threat by Washington to take unilateral action. The White House issued a memorandum on Friday giving the US trade representative (USTR) power in 90 days’ time to no longer treat designated countries as having “developing” status unless “progress” is made on changing the rules of the WTO. The memorandum has attracted little media attention, but it represents a significant US challenge to the structure of the WTO, the world’s major trade regulatory body. Trump has railed against the operations of the organisation for some time, issuing threats that the US might withdraw from it. Washington has refused to sign off on the appointment of new members to its appellate body, effectively crippling its operations in adjudicating trade disputes, on the grounds that it has made “activist” interpretations detrimental to the US. According to Friday’s memorandum, while there have been major economic changes since 1995, “the WTO continues to rest on an outdated dichotomy between developed and developing countries that has allowed some WTO members to gain unfair advantage in the international trade arena.” It said nearly two-thirds of WTO members had been able to designate themselves as “developing” countries, thereby obtaining “special treatment” under WTO rules. The document declared that while some designations were “proper,” many were unsupportable in the light of current economic circumstances. It cited economies such as Brunei, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Macao, Qatar, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, which, despite being among the richest economies on the basis of per capita gross domestic product, currently claimed “developing” country status. It noted as well that Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, members of both the G20 and the Organization for Economic Development (OECD), also claimed this designation.

Trump Vows to At Least Quadruple US-Pakistan Trade --Talking with the media during Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to the White House on July 22, 2019, US President Donald Trump said the United States “have a fantastic trade relationship (with Pakistan). I don’t mean we’ll increase it by 20 per cent. I mean, I think we can quadruple it. I think it could go — I mean, literally, it sounds crazy — you could go 10 times more. You could go 20 times more.” This is good news for Pakistan which has seen its exports stalled over the last 5 years. This has created a serious balance of payments crisis forcing the country to seek yet another IMF bailout.So what is the current volume of bilateral US-Pakistan trade? The United States Office of the Trade Representative (USTR) website says that "Pakistan is currently our 56th largest goods trading partner with $6.6 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. Goods exports totaled $2.9 billion; goods imports totaled $3.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $783 million in 2018."  Pakistan's major exports to the United States are made up of garments and other textiles. In aggregate the apparel and textile industries accounted for 37.8% and 35.1% respectively of all U.S. imports from Pakistan in the 12 months to May 31, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Given Pakistan accounted for just 1.7% of U.S. apparel imports and 8.4% of textiles there may well be room for increased market share, particularly in light of US-China trade tensions. American buyers are diversifying their supplier base away from China, the No. 1 exporter of these goods to the U.S. Already, Bangladesh is close to snatching the trousers-to-towel crown, according to Bloomberg News. Pakistan, at No. 6 last year, has grown its own shipments to the U.S. by almost 12% this year. It may overtake India, which has seen virtually no improvement.

US Farmer Crisis- China's US Soybean Purchases Plunge To 2004 Lows - A new report from Bloomberg shows US soybean exports to China collapsed in 1H19 to the lowest level in more than a decade.The US exported 614,806 tons of soybeans to China in June, according to US customs data. That brought 1H19 China imports of soybeans from the US to 5.9 million tons, the lowest level since 2004, according to Bloomberg calculations. US farmers, who harvest soybeans from September to November, have been some of the hardest hit in the trade war as Chinese buyers shift to Latin American markets for agricultural products. Senior US officials met in China on Wednesday with the hopes of resolving trade disputes that could result in more agriculture trade between the two countries.But the US trade delegation broke off discussions with its Chinese counterparts on early Wednesday morning and is already on its way back to Washington, a sign that no new progress was made, and that China is not likely to buy significant amounts of US agriculture products this summer.According to Bloomberg, US delegates including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wrapped up talks with Vice Premier Liu He and their other Chinese counterparts on Wednesday afternoon at the Xijiao State Guest Hotel in Shanghai, according to a pool report.The latest round of talks took place against a jarring backdrop following a fresh outburst by Trump on Twitter, who, as delegates gathered Tuesday, slammed China's unwillingness to buy American agricultural products and said it continues to "rip off" the US. ...to ripoff the USA, even bigger and better than ever before. The problem with them waiting, however, is that if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now...or no deal at all. We have all the cards, our past leaders never got it! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 30, 2019

The Bigger The Farm, The Bigger The Gov't Check - Bailout Goes To Richest Farmers -   More than half of President Trump's $8.4 billion bailout for American farmers through April was received by the top 10% of wealthiest farmers, the Environmental Working Group (EWG) said in a new study published Tuesday.EWG said the bailout "overwhelmingly flowed to the largest and most successful farmers," which left very little money for the mom-and-pop farmers affected by the trade war with China. The advocacy group said top 1% of bailout recipients received on average $180,000 while the bottom 80% collected less than $5,000 for their trade war-induced financial hardships.  The group acquired that data from the US Department of Agriculture via a Freedom of Information Act request. The data showed bailout payments made through the first two rounds of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP). Through April, total MFP payments for 2018-19 were $8.4 billion. The Trump administration began administering farm bailouts last year after China halted purchases of soybean. Chinese buyers aren't expected to resume agricultural purchases in 2H19. As of Wednesday, the latest round of trade talks between both countries collapsed after a half-day of negotiations. The US trade delegation broke off talks with its Chinese counterpart and is already on its way back to Washington, a sign that no new progress was made, and that the probability of China buying agriculture products from the US has collapsed. China will likely continue sourcing from Latin America.As a result of the trade war, soybean exports to China have crashed to levels not seen since 2004. The first of the bailouts, announced in 2018, was approximately $12 billion. As China pulled back even more on US agriculture purchases, the Trump administration rushed to issue a second bailout last week, includes $16 billion and $14.5 billion of that are direct payments. EWG said 82 farms have so far received more than $500,000 in payments but has left many small farms on the brink of bankruptcy.

Trump administration to place new restrictions on billions in aid for Puerto Rico amid island’s political crisis - WaPo --The Trump administration will place new restrictions on billions of dollars in federal disaster aid for Puerto Rico, according to two senior government officials briefed on the plan, as the island struggles to recover from a weeks-long political crisis that has forced the governor to announce his resignation. The decision will impose new safeguards on about $8.3 billion in Housing and Urban Development disaster mitigation funding to Puerto Rico, as well as about $770 million in similar funding for the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to the senior officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. Trump repeatedly asks his aides about Puerto Rico, officials said, creating pressure for the administration to take action. It was not immediately clear to what extent the new guidelines will delay or materially affect the disbursement of aid to Puerto Rico. The parameters of those new restrictions are also not clear. The administration will also move forward with plans to allow states such as Florida, Texas and California to apply for the disaster mitigation funding approved by Congress, while adding new restrictions for Puerto Rico’s funding. The move comes as Puerto Rico is grappling with one of its most severe political crises in memory, which started in July when two former officials in Gov. Ricardo Rosselló’s administration were arrested by the FBI on corruption charges over the misuse of federal contracts. Tens of thousands of protesters marched in Puerto Rico’s streets demanding the resignation of Rosselló, who has also been battered by the public disclosure of hundreds of private messages he sent to close associates. Rosselló has said he would step down on Friday. The scandal has prompted calls from congressional lawmakers of both parties for additional transparency measures and stricter oversight for funding approved for Puerto Rico, with a House panel recently advancing a bipartisan plan to add new safeguards to Medicaid funding for the island.

Supreme Court Ruling Will 'Really Accelerate' Border Wall Progress- DHS Chief - A Supreme Court decision to allow President Trump to redirect $2.5 billion in Pentagon funds towards his long promised border wall will "really accelerate" progress on the project, according to Acting DHS Secretary Kevin McAleenan in Sunday appearance on Fox News.  The 5-4 decision will allow for the construction of more than 100 miles of fencing - the most significant step yet, according to Bloomberg.  McAleenan said while the court’s ruling was “a big victory” to build more of the wall, “we do remain in the midst of a border security crisis” with migrants flooding the region and that Congress must take more action to deter crossings.  “We made very clear the targeted changes in law that we need,” McAleenan said. –Bloomberg   In Friday's order, the Supreme Court said that the government made a "sufficient showing" that several groups challenging the decision had insufficient grounds to bring a lawsuit against President Trump's Feb. 15 national emergency to fund the wall without congressional approval.  "Today’s decision to permit the diversion of military funds for border wall construction will wall off and destroy communities, public lands, and waters in California, New Mexico, and Arizona," said Sierra Club attorney GLoria Smith.

Number Of Migrants Reaching US Border Down 39% Since May, Hitting Five-Month Low - The number of migrants reaching the US-Mexico border hit a five-month low in July following the deployment of the National Guard to address the problem of illegal migration, according to Mexico's top diplomat.  Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Marcelo Ebrard announced a 39% drop in migrants traveling through Mexico towards the United States since May, when there were 144,278 migrants vs. 87,648 in July. This marks the lowest number since February, when 76,533 migrants were recorded, according to the Associated Press. Ebrard said the drop is the result of greater Mexican enforcement of its immigration laws, as well as investment in job creation in Central America.Ebrard said Mexico would hold a conference soon to attract international donors for a Central America development plan.He said Mexico would not provide shelters for all the migrants sent back to Mexico by the United States while awaiting resolution of their U.S. asylum requests.That has become an issue in the Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo, where hundreds of migrants have been bused from the dangerous border town to the city of Monterrey, and simply left at a bus station. -Associated Press According to Ebrard, the problem of overcrowding in cities with migrants waiting to file asylum claims with the US has declined in some areas.

Border Patrol Detained a 9-Year-Old American Girl on Her Way to School for 32 Hours - Last Monday, the Dallas Morning News broke the story of Francisco Erwin Galicia, an 18-year-old U.S. citizen who was detained by Customs and Border Protection (CPB), transferred to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and held in custody for nearly three weeks. ICE held Galicia even though he had documents on him that proved he was born in Texas.  As the Morning News reports, Galicia's detention "appears to have been a bureaucratic mix up," caused by an application for a Mexican visa to visit the U.S. filled out in his name. Galicia told the paper that he was held with 60 other men and not allowed to shower for the 23 days he was held, and by the time he was released he had lost 26 pounds. "It was inhumane how they treated us," he said. "It got to the point where I was ready to sign a deportation paper just to not be suffering there anymore. I just needed to get out of there."The broad strokes of Galicia's story, a U.S. citizen held by immigration authorities and threatened with deportation because of paperwork, is shockingly common. Peter Sean Brown, a Philadelphia man with the same name as an immigrant, was held for weeks and nearly deported to Jamaica. Officials weren't swayed by his state-issued IDs that are only available to people with social security numbers. And in March of this year, 9-year-old Julia Medina was detained by CBP for 32 hours despite her being a U.S. citizen. Though she's an American, Medina's family lives in Tijuana, and they cross the border each morning to get to school. On a Monday morning, CBP detained her and her 14-year-old brother, Oscar, saying she didn't look like the photo in her passport, according to NBC San Diego.  The agency reportedly had no explanation for why it took 32 hours to confirm her citizenship and release her, though in that time they accused her brother, who is also a U.S. citizen, of human smuggling and tried to have him sign a document saying his sister was his cousin. Medina was finally released after her mother pleaded with the Mexican consulate to contact U.S. immigration authorities.

More than 900 migrant children have been split from their parents since Trump formally ended family separations last year - Immigration authorities have separated more than 900 migrant children from their families at the US-Mexico border in the last year, after President Donald Trump had formally ended the practice, according to court documents filed Tuesday. Trump signed an executive order in June 2018 halting the separations after his "zero tolerance" immigration policy drew nationwide outrage. But since then, authorities have justified certain family separations saying that the children's parents endangered them.Immigration authorities are legally allowed to separate migrant families at the border if they possess a criminal history or raise questions of parental fitness.But the American Civil Liberties Union argued in court documents on Tuesday that many of the parents who have endured this separation in recent months have violated little more than traffic laws and pose no danger to their children."The government is systematically separating large numbers of families based on minor criminal history, highly dubious allegations of unfitness, and errors in identifying bona fide parent-child relationships," the ACLU wrote in the documents.

 Illegal Immigrant Bought Baby For $80 In Guatemala To Get Priority Release In US -  Children are being rented, bought, recycled, and kidnapped so that single adults, mostly men from Central America, can gain quick release into the United States after crossing the border illegally.  The cost of renting a child varies.“We’ve had indications … that it could cost anywhere from a few hundred—or even in some cases, less than $100—up to $1,000 or more,” said Kevin McAleenan, acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), during a congressional hearing on July 18.McAleenan said in one case, a 51-year-old illegal alien had purchased a 6-month-old baby for $80 in Guatemala so that he could easily get into the United States. The man, a Honduran national, confessed to border agents when he was faced with a DNA test.“We’ve seen all manner of smuggling organizations communicating to potential customers and to those crossing the border how to bring a child with them to be allowed to stay in the United States,” McAleenan said. “They’ve been active in advertising, literally on Facebook and on the radio in Central America.” Homeland Security Investigations, a division of ICE, sent 400 agents to El Paso and Rio Grande Valley, Texas, in mid-April to interview families that Border Patrol suspected were fake. In the last eight weeks, HSI special agents have identified 5,500 fraudulent families—about 15 percent of all cases referred. McAleenan said agents have uncovered 921 fake documents and 615 individuals have been prosecuted for trafficking or smuggling a child.“That tells me that we might be scratching the surface of this problem and the number of children being put at risk might be even higher,” he said.“Everybody knows that if they bring a child, they’ll be allowed to stay in the United States—they call it a ‘passport for migration.’ I heard that directly from a gentleman from Huehuetenango, the western-most province of Guatemala.”He said almost every summary of the cases he has seen mentions the same thing:"The subject stated that he made the attempt because he heard in his hometown that anyone traveling to the United States with a child will be released.”

16 California Marines Arrested On Charges Of Human Trafficking, Drugs And Other Crimes - Sixteen US Marines stationed at Camp Pendleton in California were arrested on a series of charges ranging from human smuggling to drug-related offenses, according to Fox News, citing officials.  The U.S. Marine Corps said in a news release that 16 Marines were arrested during a Battalion formation at Camp Pendleton in California."Information gained from a previous human smuggling investigation precipitated the arrests," USMC officials said in a statement. -Fox NewsAdditionally, eight more Marines were "taken aside" by investigators who want to know their level of involvement in alleged drug offenses unrelated to Thursday's arrests, according to the report. "1st Marine Division is committed to justice and the rule of law, and we will continue to fully cooperate with Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) on this matter," reads a statement from officials. "Any Marines found to be in connection with these alleged activities will be questioned and handled accordingly with respect to due process."  This isn't the first human smuggling arrest at Camp Pendleton, where two Marines were taken into custody on suspicion of transporting illegal immigrants for money, according to Fox 5.  Byron Darnell Law II and David Javier Salazar-Quintero were arrested near Jacumba Hot Springs in East County on July 3. Each Marine faces one felony count of seeking monetary compensation for moving unauthorized immigrants into the country after they had crossed the border, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported.Three unauthorized immigrants were with Law and Salazar-Quintero at the time of their arrest. It was unclear how many other unauthorized immigrants Law and Salazar-Quintero had moved previously, though both men allegedly admitted to their involvement in previous transports and said another person had also been involved in the operations. -Fox 5

AMLO’s police gun down immigrant near US border - Mexican police ambushed a group of defenseless immigrants Wednesday, gunning down a father in front of his young daughter in Saltillo, in the state of Coahuila, along the US-Mexico border. The incident was not an accidental encounter but a planned political attack. Its purpose was to send a warning to the Central American working class on behalf of the Trump administration: stay put or face attack by the Mexican police. One of the father’s companions told Vanguardia that the deceased was traveling to the United States to reunite with his partner. “I heard four shots and they had killed Marcos,” the witness said. “They opened fire as if we were animals.” The attack was first reported by the Casa del Migrante employees, who wrote in an open letter: “A Salvadoran father… was running next to his 8-year-old daughter, who witnessed how he fell.” Marcos, who was about 35 years old, his daughter and eight other migrants were waiting next to the tracks to hop on the train dubbed “The Beast” to conclude their journey to the US after crossing more than 1,400 miles from El Salvador. After the migrants walked from the shelter a mile away, at 9:30 p.m. a convoy of plainclothes immigration officials in black trucks, along with federal police and several state law-enforcement agencies, surrounded them. According to an eyewitness account, “the migrants came running with women and children, police from the Prosecutor’s Office came pursuing them and firing live rounds.” The Casa del Migrante describes the incident as a “brutal hunt by the authorities against migrant families,” indicating that several in the group were captured, including a mother separated from her 2-year-old baby, who was taken by other migrants who hid in a store to escape the shooting.

The Trump Administration’s Death Penalty Cult - Attorney General William Barr’s decision to reinstate the federal death penalty is a cynical political ploy aimed at energizing President Trump’s base in parts of the country that still believe in the widely discredited policy of state executions.  The United States has the grim distinction of being one of the few countries in the world that still permits the government to kill its own people in the name of justice. America is joined in this regard by China, North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.  “The government should not be in the business of killing people,” said Sister Helen Prejean, the pioneering Catholic nun who has spent decades fighting against the death penalty. “Capital punishment is a failed, morally bankrupt policy.” The death penalty is also not effective as a deterrent against crime, according to leading criminal justice experts. A landmark 2009 University of Colorado study found that “the consensus among criminologists is that the death penalty does not add any significant deterrent effect above that of long-term imprisonment.” Aside from its ineffectiveness as a law enforcement tool, the death penalty is both immoral and inhumane according to many religious leaders, including Pope Francis. In 2015, Pope Francis called for the global abolition of the death penalty, stating that a “just and necessary punishment must never exclude the dimension of hope and the goal of rehabilitation.”  President Trump is a longtime and vocal supporter of capital punishment. The most infamous example is when he called for the execution of five young men charged with rape in the 1989 Central Park jogger case—before they had even been tried. The five were later exonerated, after spending many years in prison. Trump has never apologized. The modern-day death penalty in the United States is a dark reminder of America’s shameful history of state violence against black and poor and marginalized communities. As a historical matter, the death penalty in the United States should be understood less as a form of judicial punishment and more as a form of state-sanctioned political terrorism. As Jamelle Bouie pointed out earlier this month in The New York Times, the 1893 lynching of Henry Smith, a mentally disabled black teenager, was a community affair. Smith was burned alive in front of 10,000 cheering white people in Paris, Texas.

‘Should Send Shockwaves Across the Nation’: Grave Warnings as McConnell Accelerates Right-Wing Takeover of US Courts -- The Republican-controlled Senate confirmed 13 of President Donald Trump's lifetime judicial nominees this week, a major victory in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's years-long effort to reshape the nation's courts and drag them further to the right for decades to come.The breakneck speed with which McConnell has ushered young—and often unqualified—right-wing judges through the Senate confirmation process "should send shockwaves across the nation," the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights tweetedWednesday.But the rapid confirmation of Trump's judicial picks this week has largely flown under the radar as America's cable networks and newspapers have been dominated by coverage of the 2020 Democratic presidential debates.Kristine Lucius, executive vice president for policy and government affairs at the Leadership Conference, issued a statement singling out Texas district court nominees Jeffrey Brown and Brantley Starr, who she said are "hostile to voting rights, LGBTQ equality, reproductive rights, and immigrant rights.""Additionally, neither one would even state that the bedrock civil rights decision Brown v. Board of Education was correctly decided," said Lucius, referring to the 1954 Supreme Court decision that ruled racial segregation of public schools unconstitutional.Brown and Starr were just two of seven Trump judicial picks confirmed by the Senate on Wednesday."Senate Republicans will stop at nothing to stack the courts with partisan judges who will push their radical agenda through at any cost," Lucius said. "In doing so, they are not only degrading our courts, but also endangering our democracy." It is unclear whether McConnell will succeed in pushing through all 19 of the judges he set out to confirm before the Senate breaks for recess at the end of the week, but progressives said the Kentucky Republican nevertheless did a lot of damage in just a few days—without much resistance from the Democratic Party.

Drugmakers to pay $70 million over deals to keep cheap generics off the market - With four settlement agreements, the state of California will get nearly $70 million from pharmaceutical companies that allegedly cut illegal deals to keep affordable generic drugs off the market, shielding pricey brand-name products from competition.The settlements also include injunctions that temporarily prevent the drugmakers from entering into such “pay-for-delay.”  California Attorney General Xavier Becerra argued that the deals violate antitrust laws and can lead consumers to pay as much as 90% more for prescription drugs. “These dark, illegal, collusive agreements that drug companies devise not only choke off price competition but burden our families and patients—they force every Californian to shoulder higher prices for lifesaving medication. It’s nothing less than playing with people’s lives,” Becerra said in a statement.The three companies involved—Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Endo Pharmaceuticals, and Teikoku Pharma—deny that the deals are illegal and that they harmed consumers.The four settlements involve two drugs: Provigil (a treatment for narcolepsy and other sleep disorders) and Lidoderm (a prescription patch for shingles).In the case of Provigil, Becerra alleged that Teva set up four pay-for-delay deals with competitors to keep a monopoly on the sale of the drug from 2006 to 2012. Teva settled, agreeing to a 10-year injunction and a $69 million pay-out. From that payment, $25,250,000 will be put into a fund to reimburse California residents who bought the drug in that time frame.As for Lidoderm, Becerra argued that all three companies (Teva, Endo, and Teikoku) worked together to delay the release of a generic from the market. Endo and Teikoku, partners in production of Lidoderm, allegedly cut a multimillion-dollar deal with a company acquired by Teva to delay the release of a generic. Endo settled with California for $760,000 and agreed to an eight-year injunction. Teikoku agreed to a 20-year injunction.

Trump Administration Plans To Allow Imports Of Some Prescription Drugs From Canada - The Trump administration is outlining two possible ways certain drugs that were intended for foreign markets could be imported to the U.S. — a move that would clear the way to import some prescription drugs from Canada. "Today's announcement outlines the pathways the Administration intends to explore to allow safe importation of certain prescription drugs to lower prices and reduce out of pocket costs for American patients," Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement about the plan. "This is the next important step in the Administration's work to end foreign freeloading and put American patients first." The Department of Health and Human Services outlined two "pathways" for importing the drugs to the U.S. In one initiative, the Food and Drug Administration and HHS will rely on their rulemaking authority to use existing federal law to set up pilot projects from states or wholesalers "outlining how they would import certain drugs from Canada that are versions of FDA-approved drugs that are manufactured consistent with the FDA approval." Separately, the FDA will work on safety guidelines for drug manufacturers who want to import any drugs they sell in foreign countries to the U.S. market. The HHS statement says manufacturers would use a new National Drug Code that could allow them to price drugs lower than what is required by their current distribution contracts. "This pathway could be particularly helpful to patients with significantly high cost prescription drugs," HHS says. "This would potentially include medications like insulin used to treat diabetes, as well as those used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, cardiovascular disorders, and cancer."

Trump signs 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund bill for first responders - Surrounded by 9/11 first responders and their families, President Donald Trump signed the bipartisan 9/11 Victim Compensation bill into law Monday morning at a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House.  "They answered terror with the emotional strength of true American warriors," Trump said, and asked the first responders to stand. "You inspire all of humanity."  "In the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, courageous Americans raced into smoke, fire and debris in lower Manhattan, the Pentagon and a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. The whole world witnessed the might and resilience of our nation in the extraordinary men and women of the New York Fire Department and the New York Police Department, selfless patriots of unmatched character and devotion," Trump, who lived in Manhattan during the attacks, said. "I grew up with them so I can tell you that's absolutely true."  Last week, the Senate voted by a count of 97-2 to permanently replenish the fund that would benefit police officers, fire fighters and other first responders who suffered harm or were killed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack. Without the reauthorization, the $7.4 billion fund would run out of money by December 2020. Since the fund was reopened in 2011, the program has paid awards to about 22,400 people at a cost of about $5.2 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Many of the claims went to pay people for cancer, and the CBO notes that since 2017 the share of awards for cancer-related illnesses rose to 45%.

Trump invited 9/11 responders on stage and joked about it collapsing - President Donald Trump is receiving criticism after he invited 9/11 first responders to the stage and joked about it collapsing whilst signing an important bill into law.Trump signed a bill into law that made the victims compensation fund for 9/11 permanent, and in celebration of that fact he invited first responders to the stage.“I spent a lot of time down there with you,” he said, appearing to suggest without evidence that he participated in either rescue efforts or surveying the damage in the wake of the September 11 attacks.And then he said the following:Now I’m going to sign this bill into law and I don’t know if the stage will hold it but if it doesn’t we’re not falling very far. The comment was seen as insensitive to the families and victims of the tragedy, many of whom continue to suffer debilitating medical issues due to the debris and destruction that covered downtown Manhattan.

Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Could Blow Saudi Arabia’s Role in Attacks Wide Open - — If anyone knows where the skeletons are buried contradicting the official 9/11 narrative then it’s none other than alleged terror mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. The Wall Street Journal and others report that he’s ready to spill the beans on Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the worst terror attack to ever take place on American soil as part of a victims’ lawsuit seeking damages from the kingdom as a state sponsor.A letter filed in the US District Court in Manhattan disclosed an offer to spare Mohammed the death penalty in exchange for his willingness to be deposed by the victims, who are seeking billions of dollars in damage from the kingdom, making it extremely politically sensitive regarding both embarrassing secrets of Riyadh’s role in 9/11 and the potential to severely damage US-Saudi economic ties.As Al Jazeera noted, however, it’s as yet “unclear if US President Donald Trump, who is close to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, would allow a plea deal for Mohammed to give evidence.” Furthermore, Bruce Fein, former US associate deputy attorney general, explained of the high stakes that, “If the plaintiffs win in this case, it could be hundreds of billions of dollars.” He added, “You have over 3,000 plaintiffs, compensatory plus punitive damages and a jury very hostile to Saudi Arabia, it could virtually bankrupt Saudi Arabia. All their assets in the US and elsewhere could be seized.”The victims’ lawsuit has been slowly moving forward for years, especially after Congress in 2016 passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), allowing US citizens for the first time to sue a foreign state if that state sponsored international terrorism which harmed the victims. Notably the declassification of the famous “28 pages” also in 2016, a secret document part of a 2002 congressional investigation of the Sept. 11 attacks, but which had remained hidden from public view since the report’s completion and was the only section to deal with the question of a state sponsor, was a huge milestone in further uncovering Saudi complicity.The missing 28 pages from the 9/11 report began as follows:“While in the United States, some of the September 11 hijackers were in contact with, and received support from, individuals who may be connected to the Saudi Government…”It’s believed that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s crucial testimony could fill in key details surrounding what Saudi Arabia knew of the plot beforehand, and in what ways its intelligence facilitated it. Or his testimony could also open up entirely new avenues previously undiscovered.

NY Fire Commissioners Demand New 9/11 Probe, Citing "Overwhelming Evidence of Pre-Planted Explosives" - New York area fire commissioners have called for a new investigation into 9/11, claiming that "overwhelming evidence" of "pre-planted explosives...caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings." The Franklin Square and Munson Fire District outside of Queens, New York made history by becoming the first legislative body in the country to support a new investigation into the events of 9/11, according to Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.The resolution, read aloud and passed during a July 24, 2019 meeting and calling for the investigation was drafted by Commissioner Christopher Gioia and was unanimously approved by the five commissioners. According to Activist Post, Commissioner Christopher Gioia said: “We’re a tight-knit community and we never forget our fallen brothers and sisters. You better believe that when the entire fire service of New York State is on board, we will be an unstoppable force. We were the first fire district to pass this resolution. We won’t be the last."

Ratcliffe tapped to replace Coats as U.S. spy chief (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would nominate Representative John Ratcliffe, a Texas Republican who strongly defended him at a recent congressional hearing, to replace Dan Coats as the U.S. spy chief.Coats, the current U.S. director of national intelligence who has clashed with Trump over assessments involving Russia, Iran and North Korea, will step down on Aug. 15, the president said as he announced his decision on Twitter.The post of director of national intelligence, created after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, oversees the 17 U.S. civilian and military intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency. Ratcliffe, a member of the House of Representatives intelligence and judiciary committees, defended Trump during former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s testimony on Wednesday about his two-year investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and possible obstruction of justice.

 Trump scuttles plan to nominate Ratcliffe as top intelligence official  -President Donald Trump announced Friday that his pick for the nation's top intelligence post was withdrawing from consideration and would remain in Congress. "Our great Republican Congressman John Ratcliffe is being treated very unfairly by the LameStream Media. Rather than going through months of slander and libel, I explained to John how miserable it would be for him and his family to deal with these people,” Trump tweeted in the afternoon.“John has therefore decided to stay in Congress where he has done such an outstanding job representing the people of Texas, and our Country,” he added.The Texas congressman himself later tweeted a statementwithdrawing from consideration for the post, saying he did "not wish for a national security and intelligence debate surrounding my confirmation, however untrue, to become a purely political and partisan issue."

Trump’s Secretary of Labor Pick Is Reliably Anti-Labor - Last week President Trump announced, via Twitter, the nomination of Eugene Scalia as the next secretary of labor. Scalia is the son of the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. The news follows Alexander Acosta’s resignation in the face of criticism over the way Acosta handled a Florida sex trafficking case against Jeffrey Epstein, when Acosta was a U.S. attorney in 2008. According to the DOL website, the department’s mission is “To foster, promote, and develop the welfare of the wage earners, job seekers, and retirees of the United States; improve working conditions; advance opportunities for profitable employment; and assure work-related benefits and rights.” Like many Trump cabinet members, Scalia has consistently fought to undermine the very people his department is obligated to protect, and has a long history of defending big finance and corporate interests over workers’ rights.He had previously worked for the Department of Labor during the Bush administration, but has spent most of his career at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, where he is a partner and a member of its Labor and Employment Practice Group. Over the past decade the firm has lobbied on behalf of Goldman Sachs, Koch Industries and the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a contract that the firm terminated weeks after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. As a member of his law firm, Scalia lobbied on behalf of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in 2010 to oppose financial industry regulations under the Dodd-Frank Act, and shut down campaign finance transparency rules proposed by the DISCLOSE Act.

Why Eugene Scalia is the wrong person for the job -- Working women and men need and deserve a Secretary of Labor—somebody who will look out for their interests, protect them from unscrupulous employers, set strong health and safety standards, and safeguard their retirement security.Unfortunately, corporate lawyer Eugene Scalia, the man named by President Trump to be the next Secretary of Labor, is not that person.Scalia, a graduate of the University of Chicago Law School, is a partner at the Washington, D.C.-based law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, where he specializes in labor and employment law and administrative law. He is an active participant in the activities of the Federalist Society—a right-wing legal group. Scalia was nominated in 2001 by President George W. Bush to be Solicitor of Labor, but his nomination was blocked because of opposition over his extreme views against worker health and safety protections. Bush circumvented the Senate and installed Scalia as Solicitor through a recess appointment. Scalia returned to his law firm at the beginning of 2003. Scalia has built his career representing corporations, financial institutions, and other business organizations—and fighting worker protections like health and safety regulations, retirement security, and collective bargaining rights. Scalia’s reputation as the go-to lawyer for corporations wanting to avoid worker and consumer protections is so notorious that a headline in a Bloomberg Businessweek profile on Scalia read, “Suing the Government? Call Scalia.”1 Here are just a few examples of cases where Scalia, on behalf of corporations and trade associations, has attacked worker and consumer protections:

Trump threatens to declare Antifa a terrorist group -In a tweet Saturday, President Donald Trump declared that “consideration is being given” to declaring an informal grouping of anti-fascist protesters, Antifa, a “major organization of terror.” This is despite the fact that no one has been killed by Antifa, while 50 people were murdered last year by neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups and individuals to whom Trump has expressed no such hostility. Trump added the claim that such an action “would make it easier for police to do their job.” He was responding to a resolution introduced July 18 by two Republican senators, Ted Cruz of Texas and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, which urges such a formal declaration. The bill cites protests such as blockades of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities and the release on the internet of the personal information of ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Agents. On the House side, Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, sent a letter to Attorney General William Barr July 17 asking him to “initiate the necessary proceedings to designate Antifa a domestic terrorist organization.” On July 23, while questioning FBI Director Christopher Wray at a Senate committee hearing, Cruz said, “I will be sending to you today a letter to the Department of Justice asking you to open a RICO investigation into Antifa.” RICO (racketeer influenced and corrupt organization) is the designation under federal law for the Mafia and other organized crime affiliates. The FBI has never given the designation “domestic terrorist organization” to any group, including the Ku Klux Klan and other white supremacist and neo-Nazi formations. Instead, under the Patriot Act, actions are classified as “domestic terrorism” if they are crimes dangerous to human life that are meant to intimidate the public or influence government policy. But there is no legal charge of “domestic terrorism.” It is an FBI internal classification for the purpose of investigation. Since Antifa is a loose and fluid network, not an organization, designating it as “terrorist” would have the effect of pinning that label on many thousands of people who participate in anti-fascist protests, regardless of what they actually do or their political views. It would facilitate the building up of government databases on a much wider number of left-wing activists than the relatively small number who use the Antifa signboard.

After Rand Paul Offers To Buy Ticket To Somalia, Ilhan Omar Supports Violent Attack - Days after Sen. Rand Paul offered to buy "ungrateful" Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) a ticket to Somalia to gain some perspective, the far-left Congresswoman appeared to advocate violence against the Kentucky Republican.  On Monday, Omar retweeted Tom Arnold - who sympathized with Paul's neighbor, who broke six of the Senator's ribs in a violent 2017 attack over a longstanding landscaping dispute. The neighbor, Rene Boucher of Bowling Green, KY, spent 30 days in jail and was ordered to pay Paul $580,000.  "Imagine being Rand Paul's next door neighbor and having to deal with @RandPaul lying cowardly circular whiney bullcrap about lawn clippings," tweeted Arnold, adding. "No wonder he ripped his toupee off."  Rep. Omar - the subject of a recent ethics complaint alleging immigration, tax and student loan fraud - retweeted Arnold.  Wow, it appears @IlhanMN is celebrating/calling for violence against @RandPaul.  I hope every Democrat and Republican in Congress, as well as members of the media have the courage to call this out.  Calls for political violence should never be tolerated, regardless of Party. pic.twitter.com/AQcz5gqLI6 — Andrew Surabian (@Surabees) July 29, 2019 In an interview with Breitbart published last Wednesday, Paul responded to a series July 14 tweets by President Trump slamming Omar and other "Progressive" Democrat Congresswomen for being anti-American.

China Covertly Subverting Trump Reelection - China is conducting an aggressive disinformation and influence campaign designed to block the re-election of President Trump in 2020, according to a dissident Chinese billionaire who until recently was close to senior Beijing leaders. Guo Wengui, an exiled Chinese real estate tycoon-turned-anti-communist critic, said in an interview that details of the influence operation were disclosed recently by Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan in Beijing. The campaign has been underway since the 2018 mid-term election and involves enlisting pro-China elements inside the United States to end the Trump administration after four years. "China has been protesting western powers trying to interfere in the domestic politics of China but in fact China is not only trying interfere in the domestic politics of the United States, they are interfering publicly with U.S. elections," Guo told the Washington Free Beacon. According to Guo, who has known current Chinese President Xi Jinping for more than 10 years, the anti-Trump influence operation is being directed by Xi and Wang through the Communist Party of China (CCP) National Security Commission, a high-level body created in 2013 that since then has tightened control over all other security organs. "For the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the security committee has given very clear instructions that it is not permissible for Trump to win the 2020 election," Guo said speaking through an interpreter. By deploying its intelligence and influence resources in the United States, the CCP is working to exploit the harsh political divisions between Democrats and Republicans in seeking to unseat the Trump administration. "President Trump has already caused a lot of damage to the CCP, so they have declared he will not be allowed to have another four years in power," the dissident said.

The Real Reason The Propagandists Have Been Promoting Russia Hysteria - Caitlin Johnstone -- Former MSNBC host Krystal Ball slammed her ex-employer’s relentless promotion of the Russiagate conspiracy theory following the embarrassing spectacle of Robert Mueller’s hearing before the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees on Wednesday.  “After watching seven hours of a spectacle that felt much more cruel than enlightening, I cannot avoid pondering a question which honestly gives me no joy to ponder: just how much damage has MSNBC in particular done to the left?” The Hill‘s Rising star began, before excoriating her former employer’s “fevered speculations” about an “Infowars conspiracy theory” and the way it hosted people like Jonathan “maybe Trump has been a Russian asset since the 1980s” Chait and “conspiracy gadfly Louise Mensch” in search of ratings bumps.  “This whole setup has done more damage to the Democrats’ chances of winning back the White House than anything that Trump could ever have dreamed up,” Ball argued. “Think about all the time and the journalistic resources that could have been dedicated to stories that, I don’t know, that a broad swath of people might actually care about? Healthcare, wages, the teachers’ movement, whether we’re going to war with Iran? I’m just spitballing here. I actually heard some pundit on Chris Hayes last night opine that independent women in middle America were going to be swayed by what Mueller said yesterday. Are you kidding me?”  Ball is correct that MSNBC doesn’t serve the Democratic party, but she’s incorrect that it serves only money. MSNBC, which is now arguably a more aggressive war propaganda network than Fox News, serves first and foremost the US national security state. And so do all the other western mainstream news networks. This marked discrepancy is due to the fact that western mass media outlets serve not a political party, nor even money, but the power structures of the western empire. This is the real reason why Russia hysteria has been mainlined into mainstream consciousness day in and day out for three years. Not for ratings, not to hurt Trump, not to help the Democrats, but because Russia is viewed as a disobedient geopolitical adversary by the US-centralized power alliance. That’s all it’s ever been.

What Progressives Hopefully Learned From Russiagate - Caitlin Johnstone - The Robert Mueller hearing on Tuesday was widely regarded as a humiliating disaster, not just by critics of the establishment Russia narrative, but by mainstream Democratic pundits. We haven’t seen a US official look so befuddled and disorganized during a congressional hearing since that time John McCain started babbling gibberish at James Comey, and he had a tumor eating his brain. “A frail old man, unable to remember things, stumbling, refusing to answer basic questions,” tweeted liberal documentary filmmaker Michael Moore after the circus had ended. “I said it in 2017 and Mueller confirmed it today — All you pundits and moderates and lame Dems who told the public to put their faith in the esteemed Robert Mueller — just STFU from now on.” “Much as I hate to say it, this morning’s hearing was a disaster,” tweeted virulent Russiagater Laurence Tribe. “Far from breathing life into his damning report, the tired Robert Mueller sucked the life out of it. The effort to save democracy and the rule of law from this lawless president has been set back, not advanced.”“On the optics, this was a disaster,” summarized NBC’s Chuck Todd.As you’d expect, this widespread sentiment is shared by Trump himself, who told reporters after the hearing that “We had a very good day today.”It is entirely possible that the Democrats and their allied media outlets handed Trump a re-election in 2020 with their nonstop fixation on a fact-free conspiracy theory that was doomed to failure, and many progressives have been pointing this out. “This whole setup has done more damage to the Democrats’ chances of winning back the White House than anything that Trump could ever have dreamed up,” former MSNBC host Kristal Ball said after the hearing. “Think about all the time and the journalistic resources that could have been dedicated to stories that, I don’t know, that a broad swath of people might actually care about? Healthcare, wages, the teachers’ movement, whether we’re going to war with Iran?”

 Jerry Nadler- We have impeachment resolutions before the House - House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) declined to explicitly say on ABC's "This Week" whether Democrats are pursuing an official impeachment inquiry, but repeated to George Stephanopoulos what he wrote in a court filing last week: "We have impeachment resolutions before the committee."

• STEPHANOPOULOS: "You filed a judicial filing on Friday requesting grand jury information. You made it pretty clear in that filing that the House Judiciary Committee is investigating impeachment. 'The committee has repeatedly made clear that it is assessing whether to approve articles of impeachment with respect to the president.' So how much of this debate over whether the House is pursuing impeachment is a semantic debate? You have an impeachment inquiry going, don't you?"
• NADLER: I'll repeat what we said in our court filings. We have impeachment resolutions before the committee. We are conducting investigations to determine whether we should report those impeachment resolutions to the House or direct our own and report those to the House. We're considering those resolutions. We'll make a determination after we get more evidence as to the president's crimes that we had from the Mueller report and also from other things. As to his violations of the emoluments clause, failure to defend the constitution against continuing Russian attacks."
• STEPHANOPOULOS: "So that is an impeachment investigation? "
• NADLER: "We're investigating whether to report -- whether to approve articles of impeachment before the committee."

As Stephanopoulos points out, much of the debate about whether Democrats should move forward with an impeachment inquiry — as Nadler reportedly favors — appears to be about semantics. Nadler denied that the House officially authorizing an inquiry would strengthen the Democrats' hand in court, and said that leadership "knows how we're proceeding."  Nadler later told CNN's Jack Tapper that his personal view is that Trump "richly deserves impeachment," but that that's not the question at hand. He called the Mueller hearing "an inflection point" and said that Democrats must now gather more evidence to convince the American people as they consider articles of impeachment.

An impeachment inquiry has begun - Those eager for the start of an official inquiry by the U.S. House Judiciary Committee into the possible impeachment of President Trump need wait no longer. A memorandum, submitted by the committee on July 26 to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia and signed by the general counsel of the U.S. House of Representatives, makes clear that such an inquiry has begun. The memorandum is in support of an application for access to all redactions of grand jury material in the Mueller report, in grand jury materials referenced in the report, and to any grand jury testimony or material directly related to four topics. The topics include the president’s knowledge of Russian interference in the 2016 election, links and contacts of his associates directly or indirectly with Russia, and criminal acts by anyone associated with his administration or campaign. Under Rule 6(e) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, a judge may grant access to confidential grand jury material when sought in preparation for, or use in, a judicial proceeding. The committee urges that an impeachment investigation is a judicial proceeding for purposes of this exception to grand jury secrecy. Then the committee makes clear that it is engaged in just such an impeachment investigation. Its statement is unequivocal: “The Committee seeks Rule 6(e) materials to further its ongoing investigation and assessment of whether to recommend articles of impeachment.” The committee relies heavily on Haldeman v. Sirica, a decision by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals granting the 1974 Judiciary Committee’s impeachment inquiry into Watergate access to grand jury materials. Seeing again the names of Judge John Sirica and Nixon aide Bob Haldeman connects the past and the present vividly. 

Federal Judge Dismisses DNC Lawsuit Against Trump Campaign — A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit on Tuesday from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) against members of President Trump’s campaign, WikiLeaks and the Russian government. The lawsuit claimed that these parties conspired together to hack the DNC emails and sabotage the 2016 election.  The dismissal comes after Robert Mueller’s testimony before congress, the Senate Intelligence report that found no concrete evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election and Dan Coats’ resignation as Director of National Intelligence. Coats was a firm believer in the idea that Russia attacked our democracy in 2016. Judge John Koeltl, a Clinton appointee, said, “In short, the DNC raises a number of connections and communications between the defendants and with people loosely connected to the Russian Federation, but at no point does the DNC allege any facts … to show that any of the defendants — other than the Russian Federation — participated in the theft of the DNC’s information.” Koeltl also pointed out the danger of holding a publisher like WikiLeaks liable, “If WikiLeaks could be held liable for publishing documents concerning the DNC’s political financial and voter-engagement strategies simply because the DNC labels them ‘secret’ and trade secrets, then so could any newspaper or other media outlet.” Koeltl cited the infamous Pentagon Papers in his ruling, the case when the Supreme Court ruled The New York Times and The Washington Post were protected by the first amendment for publishing information leaked to them by Daniel Ellsberg about the US government’s role in the Vietnam War. This ruling by Koeltl could be helpful to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange who may be extradited to the US and charged under the Espionage Act for publishing classified material. Although Koeltl does believe it was the Russian government who hacked the DNC, he holds firm that federal law prohibits suits against foreign governments except in “highly specific circumstances.”

US federal court exposes Democratic Party conspiracy against Assange and WikiLeaks - In a ruling published late Tuesday, Judge John Koeltl of the US District Court for the Southern District of New York delivered a devastating blow to the US-led conspiracy against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.In his ruling, Judge Koeltl, a Bill Clinton nominee and former assistant special prosecutor for the Watergate Special Prosecution Force, dismissed “with prejudice” a civil lawsuit filed in April 2018 by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) alleging WikiLeaks was civilly liable for conspiring with the Russian government to steal DNC emails and data and leak them to the public.Jennifer Robinson, a leading lawyer for Assange, and other WikiLeaks attorneys welcomed the ruling as “an important win for free speech.”The decision exposes the Democratic Party in a conspiracy of its own to attack free speech and cover up the crimes of US imperialism and the corrupt activities of the two parties of Wall Street. Judge Koeltl stated: If WikiLeaks could be held liable for publishing documents concerning the DNC’s political financial and voter-engagement strategies simply because the DNC labels them ‘secret’ and trade secrets, then so could any newspaper or other media outlet. But that would impermissibly elevate a purely private privacy interest to override the First Amendment interest in the publication of matters of the highest public concern. The DNC’s published internal communications allowed the American electorate to look behind the curtain of one of the two major political parties in the United States during a presidential election. This type of information is plainly of the type entitled to the strongest protection that the First Amendment offers. The ruling exposes the illegality of the conspiracy by the US government, backed by the governments of Britain, Ecuador, Australia and Sweden and the entire corporate media and political establishment, to extradite Assange to the US, where he faces 175 years in federal prison on charges including espionage.

US, Sweden and Britain dismiss UN finding that they tortured Assange - UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer last weekend publicly released detailed letters he sent to the governments of the United States, Britain, Sweden and Ecuador in May, documenting their responsibility for the “psychological torture” inflicted upon WikiLeaks founder Melzer also posted the replies he received from the US and Swedish governments, bluntly dismissing his findings. His letters to Britain and Ecuador went unanswered. The official responses are the latest demonstration of the illegal character of the campaign against Assange. Fundamental precepts of international law are being trampled on in the attempt to extradite him from Britain to the US, where he faces the prospect of life imprisonment, or even execution, for exposing US war crimes, mass surveillance and diplomatic conspiracies. Melzer’s letters were sent in late May, following his visits with Assange at Britain’s Belmarsh Prison on May 9 and 10. They were dispatched shortly before the public release of a summary of his findings that In his letters, Melzer noted that he was accompanied to Belmarsh by Professor Duarte Nuno Vieira, an expert in medical forensics, and Dr. Pau Pérez-Sales, a well-known psychiatrist. Both specialise in identifying and documenting the medical effects of torture and other forms of cruel, inhuman or degrading punishment. Melzer pointed to the legal travesties that have been perpetrated against Assange since he was snatched from Ecuador’s London embassy by British police on April 11. The WikiLeaks founder was immediately convicted of a bail violation and sentenced to 50 weeks in a maximum-security prison, despite the minor character of the offense. The sentence, along with the summary character of the proceedings, Melzer indicated, violated Assange’s legal rights. The UN official also expressed concern that, in prison, the “security regime applied to Mr. Assange, including the limited frequency and duration of lawyers’ visits and the lack of access to a computer (even without internet), severely hampers his ability to adequately prepare for the multiple and complex legal proceedings that are pending against him.” Melzer referred to a series of physical issues suffered by Assange as a result of his eight-year confinement in the Ecuadorian embassy without access to sunlight. “From a psychological perspective, Mr. Assange showed all symptoms typical for prolonged and sustained exposure to severe psychological stress, anxiety and related mental and emotional suffering in an environment highly conducive to major depressive and post-traumatic stress disorders,” he said. The letters stated that Assange’s rapid weight loss during his incarceration, and his transfer to the prison’s medical wing shortly after Melzer’s visit, confirmed the WikiLeaks founder’s “continued exposure to progressively severe psychological suffering and the ongoing exacerbation of his pre-existing trauma.” Melzer identified a direct causal relationship between Assange’s psychological afflictions and the political persecution to which he has been subjected.

CIA's Actions Against Trump Campaign Overseas Must Be Investigated - The top Republican with the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Devin Nunes told SaraACarter.com there is insurmountable evidence of the FBI’s malfeasance regarding the bureau’s probe into President Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russia, but what must be investigated is the FBI’s actions overseas into the campaign.Those questions will also naturally involve the CIA and any relationship the clandestine agency had with the bureau during the Russia probe, Nunes said.What has been revealed during the course of nearly three years of investigations by the Intelligence Committee and others, is that the FBI had informants spying on the campaign. The most damning information was that the FBI had specifically targeted volunteers with the Trump campaign: Carter Page, George Papadopolous, as well as others who traveled outside the United States. Once they were overseas, the FBI had continuing operations and received information from informants to build an investigation into the Trump campaign and Russia.The details of what actually took place and when the investigation by the bureau actually began, however, remain murky. Nunes said there needs to be a thorough investigation into the role of the FBI and CIA regarding the Trump probe.“There are so many unanswered questions about what happened in Cambridge, where numerous people were making strange unexplained attempts to contact Trump associates,” Nunes told SaraACarter.com. “We already know the FBI committed a lot of abuses in this investigation, and we want to discover whether more were being committed overseas.” Nunes is referring to the University of Cambridge in London, ‘Cambridge Intelligence Seminar,’ where employees made successful attempts in contacting members with the  Trump campaign in 2016, including Carter and Papadopolous.

Judge signs protective order over materials feds to turn over to jailed financier Jeffrey Epstein  - Federal prosecutors in New York overseeing the case against millionaire Jeffrey Epstein are preparing to hand over highly-sensitive investigative material to the financier's defense attorneys after a federal judge on Friday granted the government's request to place a protective order on the documents. Prosecutors sought the order because, they said in court filings, they intends to produce documents and materials that could ... "affect the privacy and confidentiality of individuals...[and that] would impede, if prematurely disclosed, the Government's ongoing investigation of uncharged individuals." When Epstein secured a non-prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors in southern Florida in 2008 over a previous investigation, the much-criticized deal also immunized any and all potential co-conspirators, known or unknown, and also included the names of four women who had been suspected by authorities of having facilitated or participated in alleged crimes against children.The deal, which is currently under review by the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility, allowed Epstein to plead guilty to two state counts and avoid federal charges for an allegedly broad pattern of similar conduct. Throughout the negotiations -- and for nearly a year after the agreement was signed -- the victims were kept in the dark, their attorneys said, claiming they were strung along as government lawyers promised victims they were still investigating even long after they had cut the deal with Epstein.

Former CIA Spook- Deep State Wants Epstein Gone - Former CIA Officer and whistleblower Kevin Shipp says there are big stories with big implications for America that are unfolding now.  One of the biggest earthquakes that is going off will be the high ranking Deep State elite surrounding convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein. Shipp says, “Oh my goodness gracious, the Deep State is darn well scared, and some of its political top participants, I guarantee you, they want Epstein gone. There is no doubt about that. I don’t know why the Bureau of Prisons put Epstein in a jail cell with a cop that killed four people and buried them in his back yard. Epstein should have been in solitary confinement under watch. So, whoever made that decision, it was a complete error in judgment, if not intentional. That should not have happened in the first place.” Shipp goes on to point out, “It looks pretty clear to me that the Deep State intelligence Shadow government was involved, and it gets worse..." "Ghislaine Maxwell, who was Epstein’s alleged recruiter for young girls, was the daughter of  Robert Maxwell, (Correction: Shipp said John by mistake) who was a known Mossad Agent. He bilked pension funds to cover losses in his business... He was found dead floating next to his yacht from an alleged heart attack. So, there are some strange connections to the Deep State. U.S. Attorney (and former Labor Secretary) Alexander Acosta would not have said this if it were not true. It is true. There are intelligence connections. Is this a blackmail operation? We know Epstein has a ‘black book.’ We know Epstein probably has video of massages by young girls of high profile people, including politicians... . There are going to be some big names that are going to be connected to Epstein and his pedophile child trafficking ring. There is no question about it.” Another huge story unfolding is the investigation into the “hoax” and “witch hunt” of Russian collusion with President Trump that has now been totally disproven. The real story is how traitors in the U.S. government made up a crimes to frame the President, his campaign and his Administration. People high up in the Obama Administration committed massive crimes, only to fail badly in removing Trump from office. Kevin Shipp says,

Jeffrey Epstein’s life ‘in jeopardy’ as powerful pals ‘don’t want their secrets out’, victim’s lawyer claims -- JEFFREY Epstein's life may be in danger as his powerful pals do not want him to reveal their secrets, his victims' lawyer has claimed. Spencer Kuvin, who represents three of the billionaire perv's sex trafficking accusers, threw doubt on claims the financier attempted suicide. Epstein was found "sprawled on the floor" and "blue in the face" in a New York jail, last Tuesday according to reports. Investigators are still probing whether it was a suicide attempt or if the shamed 66-year-old was attacked. Now Kuvin believes Epstein knows so much dirt about his rich and famous friends that there may be some individuals willing to organise a "hit" on him to prevent that information ever getting out. "I question whether or not it was a true suicide attempt that Mr Epstein was involved in in jail or whether or not there may be some powerful people who just don’t want him to talk," Kuvin told Sun Online. "If he goes on trial, everyone he’s been in contact with will ultimately be fair game. "There’s no doubt in my mind that no jail will protect you when there’s powerful people that want to reach you - wherever you are. "If he’s going to implicate anyone in power that has the ability to reach in and somehow get to him - his life is definitely in jeopardy. "I do question whether it was a true suicide attempt. I mean how do you choke yourself? It doesn't make any sense. "There are reports someone came after him but that could just be because he's a paedophile. Those types of individuals don't last long in prison. "If Epstein is in general population or anywhere available to the general population I believe his life is in jeopardy. "They will have to seal him down in the jail. But even there there are still people who can get to him, ultimately."

Jeffrey Epstein got documents claiming he raped 15-year-old day before mysterious jail cell injury -- A day before Jeffrey Epstein, an accused child sex trafficker, was found mysteriously injured in his jail cell, the wealthy financier was served legal documents detailing a woman’s claims that he raped her in his New York City mansion when she was just 15 years old.The accuser, Jennifer Araoz, plans to sue Epstein next month for claims of sexual assault, battery and rape, which she alleges he started committing when she was a New York high school student in 2001, according to a court filing earlier this month. But first, Araoz is asking a judge to order Epstein to submit to a deposition, where he can be asked by Araoz’s lawyers the identity of a female “recruiter”who allegedly conspired with him to identify her “as a potential sexual abuse victim” and “facilitated the grooming” of Araoz.“Upon identification of the recruiter, she will be added as a defendant to” Araoz’s planned suit against Epstein, the filing says. “Further, the recruiter possesses critical evidence of [Araoz’s] sexual assault claims.” Araoz’s lawyers also are asking the judge to require that Epstein produce records showing who was employed by him from 2000 through 2003, and to turn over logs of “everyone who entered or exited his” Upper East Side townhouse during that same time frame. A New York City Sheriff’s Office official gave Epstein — a former friend of Presidents Donald Trump and Bill Clinton — copies of that request and related documents on July 22 at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, according to an affidavit filed Monday in Manhattan Supreme Court. A day after he was given the court documents, Epstein was found injured and semi-conscious on the floor of his cell, with marks on his neck. He then was was put on suicide watch. Authorities do not know if he tried to commit suicide, staged a suicide attempt, or was assaulted by another inmate at that federal facility, where Epstein was being held in a special unit used to protect prisoners from others in the general population.

Lawmaker says she’s been told to back off call for probe of Jeffrey Epstein’s work release - Florida Sen. Lauren Book has reached out to Capitol police after receiving an anonymous warning connected to her demand for a state inquiry into Palm Beach Sheriff Ric Bradshaw’s handling of accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein’s lenient work release program, the Miami Herald has learned.Book, a vocal advocate for child sexual assault survivors, said she also received more than a dozen calls from Bradshaw’s political supporters asking her to back off on her call for an investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement into Bradshaw. Ric Bradshaw, sheriff of Palm Beach County when Jeffrey Epstein was incarcerated and still sheriff, said his office will investigate its own handling of the multimillionaire’s work release. Epstein was allowed 12 hours a day, six days a week of freedom despite allegations from three dozen underage girls that he had molested them. Taylor Jones Palm Beach Post On Monday, Book, a Democrat, wrote a letter to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis asking him to authorize a probe into how Epstein, accused of molesting dozens of underage girls and a registered sex offender, was permitted to leave the Palm Beach County Jail and spend much of his 2008-2009 incarceration in an office in West Palm Beach.DeSantis said Thursday after a Cabinet meeting that he would “certainly consider” an investigation but that he has yet to decide how the state should respond.“I saw someone sent me a letter. I looked at it,” he said. “I’ve got to figure out what the proper role of FDLE [is]. I know they are investigating it down in Palm Beach. ... Clearly when you look at how that happened, if even like 10 percent of the things about him are true, then that whole agreement was obviously suspect and willfully below what he should have faced.”While the governor was still weighing the merits of the senator’s request, the Palm Beach Sheriff’s Office issued a new statement that its previously announced internal affairs investigation of the deputies who guarded and supervised Epstein during his work release had become a criminal investigation as well. No further elaboration was provided. Meanwhile, Book, in an interview with the Herald, said she had asked the Capitol police, who handle security for state lawmakers, to look into claims made on a Russian website alleging that Bradshaw was behind an effort to access her phone and emails by using the pretext of “imminent danger’’ to obtain her personal information.

 Epstein Planned To Seed Human Race With His DNA By Impregnating Scores Of Women In New Mexico - Jailed pedophile Jeffrey Epstein wanted to seed the human race with his DNA by impregnating scores of women at his giant ranch in New Mexico, according to the New York Times. He also wanted his penis and head cryogenically frozen. Epstein shared his scheme with scientists and other confidants over the years, according to four people who were in on the plan - which "reflected his longstanding fascination with what has become known as transhumanism: the science of improving the human population through technologies like genetic engineering and artificial intelligence," according to the report.  "On multiple occasions starting in the early 2000s, Mr. Epstein told scientists and businessmen about his ambitions to use his New Mexico ranch as a base where women would be inseminated with his sperm and would give birth to his babies, according to two award-winning scientists and an adviser to large companies and wealthy individuals, all of whom Mr. Epstein told about it," according to the report.  According to Mr. Lanier, the NASA scientist said Mr. Epstein had based his idea for a baby ranch on accounts of the Repository for Germinal Choice, which was to be stocked with the sperm of Nobel laureates who wanted to strengthen the human gene pool. (Only one Nobel Prize winner has acknowledged contributing sperm to it. The repository discontinued operations in 1999.)  Mr. Lanier, the virtual-reality creator and author, said he had the impression that Mr. Epstein was using the dinner parties — where some guests were attractive women with impressive academic credentials — to screen candidates to bear Mr. Epstein’s children. -New York Times Epstein, charged in July with sexual trafficking of girls as young as 14, was a prolific liar and manipulator according to the Times, which notes that the 'serial illusionist' lied about his clients' identities, his net worth, his financial prowess, and other personal achievements - all in an effort to worm his way into the upper echelons of society. As the Times goes on to note, even after his 2008 conviction on charges of soliciting prostitution from a minor, Epstein was able to ingratiate himself with the scientific community, attracting a "glittering array of prominent scientists." They included the Nobel Prize-winning physicist Murray Gell-Mann, who discovered the quark; the theoretical physicist and best-selling author Stephen Hawking; the paleontologist and evolutionary biologist Stephen J. Gould; Oliver Sacks, the neurologist and best-selling author; George M. Church, a molecular engineer who has worked to identify genes that could be altered to create superior humans; and the M.I.T. theoretical physicist Frank Wilczek, a Nobel laureate. -New York Times

JPMorgan and Sidley Austin Were Involved in the Mysterious $6.7 Billion Company Chaired by Jeffrey Epstein -  Pam Martens   -Jeffrey Epstein, the accused sex trafficker of underage school girls, presided over a $6.7 billion offshore company as its Chairman from November 9, 2001 to at least March 19, 2007, a period during which he is accused of committing his sex trafficking crimes against minors. The company is Liquid Funding Ltd. and it had two offshore connections: it was incorporated in Bermuda on October 19, 2000 by the Appleby law firm, known for setting up offshore companies in secrecy jurisdictions like the Isle of Man, Guernsey, Cayman Islands, and Jersey. Liquid Funding’s investment manager was Bear Stearns Bank Plc in Dublin, Ireland – a non-U.S. regulated institution, which was later merged into JPMorgan Bank Dublin.A Securities and Exchange Commission filing by Bear Stearns, prior to its epic collapse in 2008, indicated that Bear Stearns owned 40 percent of Liquid Funding Ltd.’s equity but the owners of the other 60 percent remain a mystery. The ratings firm, Fitch, reported in 2006 that the company had $6.7 billion in outstanding liabilities. What those liabilities consisted of and who paid them off when Bear Stearns collapsed remains largely unknown, although we did track down $364 million of Liquid Funding’s commercial paper stuffed into U.S. money market funds. Two of JPMorgan’s money market funds held a total of $100 million; two Dreyfus money markets held at least $139 million; and a Frank Russell money market fund held $125 million.Since our last report, we have uncovered new details from a report issued in 2004 by the Moody’s ratings agency. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Natexis Banque Populaire extended the company a $250 million liquidity facility and Deloitte was its auditor. JPMorgan Chase is also listed as its “Security Trustee.” The large corporate law firm, Sidley Austin, was its legal counsel.We reached out to JPMorgan, Sidley Austin and Deloitte seeking information on how Epstein came to chair the company and additional details. Thus far, we have not received a response from any of the three. That the French bank, Natexis Banque Populaire, was part of the liquidity facility with two U.S. banks suggests that Liquid Funding may have had business dealings in France. Epstein has an apartment in Paris as well as mansions in Manhattan, Palm Beach, New Mexico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.The involvement of JPMorgan Chase is particularly interesting in a company where Bear Stearns is a 40 percent owner and Jeffrey Epstein is Chairman. The New York Times reported that a key executive of JPMorgan Chase, James (Jes) Staley, visited Epstein when he was serving out his sentence of 13 months in Palm Beach, Florida a decade ago. Epstein was able to escape Federal prosecution then despite compelling evidence that he had sexually abused dozens of underage girls for years. JPMorgan’s involvement is further interesting because the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided a $28.8 billion loan to take that amount of toxic assets off of Bear Stearns balance sheet and put them in a concoction called Maiden Lane LLC in order to sweeten the pot for JPMorgan Chase to take over Bear Stearns when it blew itself up with bad investments in 2008.

Government by Blackmail: Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s Mentor and the Dark Secrets of the Reagan Era --Jeffrey Epstein, the billionaire who now sits in jail on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors, has continued to draw media scrutiny in the weeks after his arrest on July 6. Part of the reason for this continued media interest is related to Epstein’s alleged relationship to the intelligence services and new information about the true extent of the sexual blackmail operation Epstein is believed to have run for decades. As MintPress reported last week, Epstein was able to run this sordid operation for so long precisely because his was only the latest incarnation of a much older, more extensive operation that began in the 1950s and perhaps even earlier. Starting first with mob-linked liquor baron Lewis Rosenstiel and later with Roy Cohn, Rosenstiel’s protege and future mentor to Donald Trump, Epstein’s is just one of the many sexual blackmail operations involving children that are all tied to the same network, which includes elements of organized crime, powerful Washington politicians, lobbyists and “fixers,” and clear links to intelligence as well as the FBI.  This report, Part II of this series titled “The Jeffrey Epstein Scandal: Too Big To Fail,” will delve into Cohn’s close ties to the Reagan administration, which was also closely tied to the same organized crime network led by the infamous mob figure Meyer Lansky, which was discussed in Part I. Of particular importance is the “Iran Contra” network, a group of Reagan officials and associates who played key roles in the Iran Contra scandal. Though it has remained relatively unknown for years, many key figures in that same network, and several fronts for the CIA that were involved in funneling money to the Central American Contra paramilitaries, were also trafficking minors for their sexual exploitation and use in sexual blackmail rings.Several of these rings made headlines at one point or another over the years — from the “call boy ring” run by Washington lobbyist Craig Spence, to the Franklin child-sex and murder ring run by Republican operative Larry King, to the scandal that enveloped the Catholic charity Covenant House in the late 1980s. Yet, as this report will show, all of these rings — and more — were connected to the same network that involved key figures linked to the Reagan White House and linked to Roy Cohn — revealing the true scope of the sordid sexual blackmail operations and sex rings that involved the trafficking of children within the U.S. and even in Central America for their exploitation by dangerous and powerful pedophiles in the United States.

Jeffrey Epstein Trial Will Have a Million Pages of Evidence, Lawyers Tell Court - Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking trial will have a million pages of discovery, including materials on devices seized from his Manhattan mansion, lawyers said today.The sex offender financier was back in court on Wednesday as his defense attorneys duked it out with prosecutors over how quickly to go to trial. The prosecution has requested a June date but the defense is fighting to delay until September 2020. The trial, prosecutors said, will last four to six weeks.U.S. District Judge Richard Berman wasn't ready to put a trial on the books, saying, "Let's see where everybody is at as the months go by."Epstein walked into court with his eyeglasses on his head but no visible injuries, days after he reportedly hurt himself in his jail cell. Also present in the courtroom was famed attorney Gloria Allred, who confirmed for The Daily Beast that she's representing "a number of accusers." Allred has repped a number of victims in high-profile #MeToo cases against Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. Allred is representing an undisclosed number of alleged victims, none of whom were involved in the previous Florida case, she said. Some of the victims came to her before Epstein's July arrest, while others have reached out since then.

Epstein's Lawyers Request A Full Year To Review A Million Pages Of Documents - Lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein have asked a judge for "at least a year" to review a "blizzard" of documents that prosecutors have gathered against him in their case alleging sex trafficking in minors and conspiracy. Bloomberg reports that prosecutors have asked the judge for a trial in June of next year, but Epstein's defense team, led by attorney Martin Weinberg, responded that his team wanted to wait until September 2020 because they haven't yet begun to receive documents from the government. In a hearing on Wednesday in Manhattan, Weinberg said:  “We need time to receive a million pages of discovery and prepare to defend a four- to six-week trial. We need time to assess events that occurred 14 to 17 years ago.” The judge set a tentative trial date of June 8 and asked both parties to keep him abreast of their progress. There was also no talk about last week's incident where Epstein was reportedly found "nearly unconscious" in his prison cell. As we reported last week, Epstein was found semi-conscious with "marks on his neck." Epstein was arrested on July 6 after stepping off his private plane in New Jersey. He has pleaded not guilty and said that he has "fully complied with the law for more than 14 years". He is accused of molesting teenage girls between 2002 and 2005 and plead guilty in 2008 to Florida state charges of soliciting prostitution after entering into a settlement. Prosecutors in New York say they are not bound by the settlement and are now pursuing their own charges.

Real Hedge-Fund Managers Have Some Thoughts on What Epstein Was Actually Doing - Long before Jeffrey Epstein pleaded guilty to prostitution charges in Florida more than a decade ago, his fellow Palm Beach resident and hedge-fund manager Douglas Kass was intrigued by the local gossip about his neighbor.“I’m hearing about the parties, hearing about a guy who’s throwing money around,” says Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management. While stories about young girls swarming Epstein’s waterfront mansion and the sex parties he hosted for the rich and powerful were the talk of the town, Kass was more focused on how this obscure person, rumored to be managing billions of dollars, had become so wealthy without much of a track record.Kass was well-connected on Wall Street, where he’d worked for decades, so he began to ask around. “I went to my institutional brokers, to their trading desks and asked if they ever traded with him. I did it a few times until the date when he was arrested,” he recalls. “Not one institutional trading desk, primary or secondary, had ever traded with Epstein’s firm.”When a reporter came to interview Kass about Bernie Madoff shortly before that firm blew up in the biggest Ponzi scheme ever, Kass told her, “There’s another guy who reminds me of Madoff that no one trades with.” That man was Jeffrey Epstein. “How did he get the money?” Kass kept asking.  Epstein was also missing another key element of a typical thriving hedge fund: investors. Kass couldn’t find any beyond Epstein’s one well-publicized client, retail magnate Les Wexner — nor could other players in the hedge-fund world who undertook similar snooping. “I don’t know anyone who’s ever invested in him; he’s never talked about by any of the allocators,” says one billionaire hedge-fund manager, referring to firms that distribute large pools of money among various funds. Epstein’s spotty professional history has also drawn a lot of attention in recent days, and Kass says it was one of the first things that raised his suspicions years ago. Now 66, Epstein didn’t come from money and never graduated from college, yet he landed a teaching job at a fancy private school (“unheard of,” says Kass) and rose through the ranks in the early 1980s at investment bank Bear Stearns. Within no time, Kass notes, Epstein was made a partner of the firm — and then was promptly and unceremoniously ousted. (Epstein reportedly left the firm following a minor securities violation.) Despite this “squishy work experience,” as Kass puts it, at some point after his quick exit, Epstein launched his own hedge fund, J. Epstein & Co., later renamed Financial Trust Co. Along the way, he began peddling the improbable narrative that he was so selective he would only work with billionaires.  Oddly, Epstein also claimed to do all the investing by himself while his 150 employees all worked in the back office — which Kass says reminds him of Madoff’s cover story. Though it now appears that Epstein had many fewer employees than he claimed, according to the New York Times:

In 'Major Compliance Blunder', Fired Deutsche Bankers Retained Access To Corporate Email For Weeks - In its rush to reduce its headcount, Deutsche Bank apparently forgot which employees it laid off, and which employees still worked at the bank.The FT reports that DB has launched an internal investigation into whether "confidential client data were compromised" after the bank realized that some former employees retained access to company systems and their corporate email accounts for weeks after being laid off. One former equity sales person reportedly sent 450 messages via the company's system after she was let go...and we doubt those messages were her merely saying one last goodbye to her treasured clients.Around 50 traders in the London and New York offices were still able to access the bank’s systems and their emails for weeks after the first round of lay-offs started on July 8, according to people briefed on the compliance blunder. One equity salesperson sent 450 messages via remote access after she was let go.News of the oversight doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the lender, which is trying to convince shareholders that it can pull off one of the most radical restructurings since the financial crisis.The investigation, which is being led by head of compliance Jeremy Kirk, will examine whether there has been any collusion between laid off staff and those who remain at the bank.So far, they haven't found anything incriminating."Access to trading systems was turned off immediately for employees being put at risk of redundancy," the bank said. "A small number of employees continued to have access to their work emails through personal devices for a limited period.""We have reviewed nearly all emails sent and have so far found no evidence of any price sensitive information being communicated or of any other wrongdoing,” he added.  "Access to work emails has now been fully revoked." The 50 equity traders in NYC and London who retained access to company email were just some of the 900 employees who have been let go. Over the next few years, DB intends to shrink its global headcount by 18,000.

Equifax is going to rip you off again -- If you are an adult human being living in the United States, Equifax is making a lot of money from your personal data (Equifax's annual revenue is $3.1 billion. Its CEO Mark Begor gets over $20 million a year in compensation). As you know, Equifax violated the trust of 147 million people in a massive data breach in 2017, opening them up to identity theft and other abuses. You've also heard that Equifax has agreed to pay everyone affected by the breach $125. That is not close to sufficient, but it's something. However, if you filed a claim for your $125, you will might be surprised that your actual check will be a fraction of that. From Equifax's FAQ: If there are more than $31 million claims for Alternative Reimbursement Compensation, all payments for Alternative Reimbursement Compensation will be lowered and distributed on a proportional basis. That means you will get $125 only if fewer than 250,000 people file a claim. It's likely many more people will file a claim. Suppose 10% of those affected (14.7 million) file a claim. They'd each get a check for $2.11.

A hacker gained access to 100 million Capital One credit card applications and accounts - In one of the biggest-ever data breaches, a hacker gained access to more than 100 million Capital One customers' accounts and credit card applications earlier this year. The compromised data includes 140,000 Social Security numbers, 1 million Canadian Social Insurance numbers and 80,000 bank account numbers, in addition to an undisclosed number of people's names, addresses, credit scores, credit limits, balances, and other information, according to the bank and the US Department of Justice. Paige Thompson, 33, was arrested in connection with the breach, the Justice Department said Monday. The department alleges that Thompson "posted on the information sharing site GitHub about her theft of information from the servers storing Capital One data." Thompson had previously worked as a tech company software engineer and was able to gain access by exploiting a misconfigured web application firewall, the DOJ said.

Capital One Admits Massive Data Breach- 100 Million Americans Affected, Seattle Woman Arrested --Just a few short days after the Equifax data breach settlement - which affected 147 million Americans - Capital One Financial has just issued a statement confirming that on July 19th 2019, there was unauthorized access by an outside individual who obtained certain types of personal information relating to people who had applied for its credit card products and to Capital One credit card customers. Based on their analysis, this event affected approximately 100 million individuals in the United States and approximately 6 million in Canada. "While I am grateful that the perpetrator has been caught, I am deeply sorry for what has happened," said Richard D. Fairbank, Chairman and CEO. "I sincerely apologize for the understandable worry this incident must be causing those affected and I am committed to making it right."  As The Washington Post reports, The FBI has arrested Paige A. Thompson, a Seattle area woman, on a charge of computer fraud and abuse, court records say. Thompson, who authorities say used the name “erratic” in online conversations, is suspected of “exfiltrating and stealing information, including credit card applications and other documents, from Capital One,” according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court. She was ordered to remain in jail pending a detention hearing scheduled for Thursday, according to court records. It is unusual in a major hacking case for a suspect to be apprehended so quickly, and in this case, that was apparently due to boasts made online. In one online posting, “erratic” wrote: “I’ve basically strapped myself with a bomb vest, [expletive] dropping capitol ones dox and admitting it,” according to the complaint.

Transgender Ex-Amazon Employee Charged In Capital One Hack - Paige Thompson, the 33 year old former Amazon employee who was been charged with stealing sensitive data belonging to 100 million Capital One credit card applicants, is a transgender woman who has shown signs of erratic behavior on line, including sharing about the depression she felt after having to recently euthanize a pet, according to the Daily Mail.Using the online handle "erratic", Thompson was active on hacker Twitter. It's not clear why Thompson stole the data, but according to Bloomberg, the breach ranks as one of the largest-ever involving a US bank - though the data apparently wasn't distributed to other criminals to use in identity theft schemes or other fraud. Thompson was arrested by federal prosecutors in Seattle.Thompson is believed to have stolen the data from an AWS data-storage system that had an improperly configured firewall that Thompson was able to breach. Though Amazon insists the hack wasn't its fault, and that Thompson infiltrated Capital One's system to access the data.After allegedly stealing the data, Thompson made no efforts to conceal her involvement - in fact, she posted about it publicly on forums to the point where other hackers warned her that she could be facing jail time for posting some of the information in the hack.It's estimated that she accessed more than 140,000 credit cad numbers and more than 100 million names.Capital One only learned of the hack, according to BBG, when an anonymous tipster emailed them on July 17 to report the breach after seeing some of the data Thompson had posted to her Github.So far, nobody's money has been taken, and no sensitive data stolen has been used for nefarious purposes. Most of the data was taken from consumer and small-business credit-card applications."This information included personal information Capital One routinely collects at the time it receives credit card applications, including names, addresses, zip codes/postal codes, phone numbers, email addresses, dates of birth, and self-reported income."Thompson's defense lawyers might have a hard time coming up with a defense because Thompson is alleged to have posted messages on social media admitting to the hacks while knowing that what she was doing was illegal. She was charged with computer fraud and abuse.

Capital One Breach Said To Also Affect Other Major Companies  -The data breach at Capital One may be the “tip of the iceberg” and may affect other major companies, according to security researchers.Israeli security firm CyberInt said Vodafone, Ford, Michigan State University and the Ohio Department of Transportation may have also fallen victim to the same data breach that saw more than 106 million credit applications and files copied from a cloud server run by Capital One by an alleged hacker, Paige Thompson, a Seattle resident, who was taken into FBI custody earlier this week.It follows earlier reports from Forbes and security reporter Brian Krebs indicating that Capital One may not have been the only company affected, pointing to “one of the world’s biggest telecom providers, an Ohio government body, and a major U.S. university,” according to Slack messages sent by the alleged hacker. The same messages were published in a CyberInt report published Wednesday. “Other victims may be inferred from filenames,” said the report, including Apperian, Infoblox and Wakoopa.

Powell hints Fed will take bigger role in real-time payments — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank is nearing a decision on whether to develop its own real-time payments system to compete with industry. In a press conference, Powell said there is ample precedent for the Fed to have a central role if it so chooses. “We put out a proposal in October of last year and we got quite a lot of comments that were overwhelmingly favorable,” Powell said. “I would point out that in our payments system, in many places the Fed operates alongside private-sector operators — for example, in wholesale payments, [automated clearing house] and checking. So it wouldn't be unusual or out of keeping with how we've done things in the past.” Powell added that the agency has been deliberating whether to develop its own payment system and that a final decision on the matter will be announced “soon.” The Fed has been pulled in opposite directions over the last few months over whether or not to develop its own faster payments network to compete with an existing faster payments network operated by the Clearing House. Smaller banks and lawmakers wary of a private-sector-run network have pushed for the Fed to develop its own system. The Clearing House and its congressional allies, meanwhile, argue that a Fed-operated system will take too long to implement, will balkanize the national payments system and will not yield the presumed competitive advantages. Powell also said that the Fed’s board of governors is “not considering” lifting a growth cap on Wells Fargo that it imposed more than 18 months ago over what Powell described Wednesday as “deep-seated issues” related to its risk management practices and various scandals at the bank over the last several years.

Regulators must issue AI guidance or FDIC will: McWilliams — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams said if regulators fail to agree on joint guidance regarding banks' use of artificial intelligence, her agency is prepared to go it alone. “It’s something we're working through and frankly, I’m hoping we can do it on an interagency basis,” McWilliams said during a fintech event on Friday. “And if we can’t, I’m willing to take the risk of the FDIC being the outlier in this space.” McWilliams said it’s critical that regulators offer guidance on how banks can use machine learning and AI technology, particularly for the thousands of community banks that the FDIC oversees. “There’s an opportunity as a regulator of primarily small banks in the United States to allow those banks to compete more effectively by using technology and innovation,” said McWilliams, speaking at the Washington site of a trans-Atlantic event hosted by the U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority. “We need to make that happen and we need to provide for them the regulatory certainty within which they can function.” Banks and regulators have been weighing how AI can be used to better detect money-laundering threats, for example. McWilliams said all the federal banking agencies and the National Credit Union Administration have been meeting with the Office of Foreign Assets Control and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network every month to weigh how fintech can safely play into banking and regulatory activities, such as developing anti-money-laundering controls. “You will see a little bit more coming out as we unroll and we have a better understanding of what exactly can be done in this space,” she said. McWilliams has been working to revamp the FDIC to be more forward-looking on technology since she took office. Like other banking agencies, the FDIC is currently building an office of innovation for banks and fintechs to discuss ideas, pilots and how to test products without being blocked by regulations. “Whether banks choose to develop technology on their own or partner with a fintech, the FDIC will work with them to identify and remove unnecessary regulatory impediments,” she said.

July 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 75 Institutions --Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors.Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 2019.Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for July 2019. During the month, the list decreased by a net of one institution to 75 banks after two removals and one addition. Aggregate assets fell slightly to $55.4.7 billion from $55.0 billion a month earlier. A year ago, the list held 89 institutions with assets of $57.3 billion. This month, actions were terminated against The Equitable Bank, S.S.B., Wauwatosa, WI ($306 million) and Citizens Bank of Chatsworth, Chatsworth, IL ($31 million). Added this month was The First National Bank of Tahoka, Tahoka, TX ($55 million). While already on the list, the OCC issued an updated Prompt Action Directive on June 26, 2019 to City National Bank of New Jersey, Newark, NJ ($156 million).

GOP senators pressure banking agencies for more reg relief — A group of Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee pressed the banking regulators — all GOP appointees — to make several of their regulatory relief proposals even more lenient. In a letter signed by committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, Richard Shelby, R-Ala., Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., Tim Scott, R-S.C., Ben Sasse, R-Neb., and Tom Cotton, R-Ark., said the regulators must act to continue the country's economic expansion. “More can be done to support the economic expansion,” the letter reads. “The Banking Committee continues to explore additional ways that regulations can be tailored to further spur economic growth. As you move forward with finalizing rules … we urge you to consider several critical issues.” The letter, dated Tuesday, called on regulators to complete its work on the Community Bank Leverage Ratio, which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed in November and would nullify many post-crisis regulatory requirements for small institutions that maintain a 9% leveraged capital. The lawmakers said that regulators should reduce that ratio to 8% — the lower end of the range under consideration by law and the preferred alternative of the banks themselves. “The proposed 9% CBLR is well above the current Tier 1 leverage requirement for well-capitalized banks,” the letter said. “Accordingly, we encourage you to use the discretion provided to you by Congress to establish the CBLR at 8%, which would result in community banks receiving relief under the CLR while maintaining significant capital.” The lawmakers also asked that regulators amend their rule that changed the types of short term call reports that banks with less than $5 billion in assets are required to file.

Waters, Brown warn regulators not to weaken margin rules — The top Democrats on the House and Senate banking panels are urging regulators not to weaken initial margin requirements for swaps transactions between depository institutions and their affiliates. House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the top Democrat on the Banking Committee, warned heads of the three federal banking regulators that weakening the requirements “would harm financial stability and U.S. taxpayers.” “As you know, Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to ensure that banks would no longer be able to gamble on risky derivatives, like swaps, and expect to get bailed out by the government when they lost those bets,” the lawmakers wrote in letters to the heads of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Reserve Board and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Waters and Brown said they are concerned about offshore risks from swaps transactions affecting U.S. affiliates in light of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union. Their warning comes as regulators have also proposed tailoring capital requirements for the largest banks, including changes to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio. “These actions, here and abroad, will result in a reduced amount of funds held by U.S. banks and their foreign affiliates to safeguard taxpayers from another financial crisis where they, not the banks, will be left to foot the bill,” the lawmakers wrote. “Expanding the inter-affiliate swap exemption to all transactions would drain even more resources from insured depository institutions and increase the risk of a future taxpayer bailout still further.” But the financial services industry has argued that weakening the initial margin requirements would reduce costs for consumers and businesses.

S&P 500 buybacks are driving an unprecedented cash decline, says Goldman - S&P 500 companies are returning cash to shareholders at an unsustainable rate, says Goldman Sachs analysts. Goldman data show that in the 12 months ended on March 31, firms in the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.26%  spent 103.8% of their free cash flow on stock buybacks and dividends, up from 101.9% in the fourth quarter of last year.This latest spree is the first time that constituents of the index spent more cash than they earned on payouts since the period between September 2006 and March of 2008, when there was a seven-quarter stretch during which S&P 500 companies paid out more to shareholders than they earned in cash, on a trailing 12-month basis. “S&P 500 share repurchases have continued to surge in 2019,” Goldman analysts wrote, led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin. “Although S&P 500 repurchase authorizations have declined 20% versus the year-ago period, companies retain capacity to repurchases stock under multiyear authorizations.”Kostin estimated that S&P 500 buybacks will climb by 13% to a new high of $940 billion this year, and pointed to data showing “with payout ratios elevated, corporates have drawn on their cash balances to finance spending growth.”Indeed, during the past year, nonfinancial companies in the S&P 500 have seen their cash levels decline by $272 billion, a 15% decline represents the largest drop since at least 1980, according to a Goldman analysis. Another worrying sign is that the cash decline has coincided with a spike in corporate debt levels, with gross debt outstanding rising 8% over the same period. According to Kostin, however, Federal Reserve policy is helping to blunt the damage wrought by rising debt and falling cash levels. A widely expected interest-rate cut on July 31 is helping to boost stocks with high debt levels. Goldman’s basket of weak-balance-sheet stocks have outperformed stocks with a strong balance sheet by four percentage points since the beginning of June as investors are “comfortable with higher leverage ahead of expected Fed easing.”

Not just Amazon: 60 big companies paid $0 in taxes under Trump law - Big businesses are faring better than ever under the Trump era tax law, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). According to analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), 60 Fortune 500 companies avoided paying all federal income tax in 2018 (with their total average effective tax rate being roughly -5%). That’s more than three times the number of companies that avoided paying corporate taxes on average from 2008 to 2015. During that period, 18 companies managed to pay 0% or less (with their total average effective tax rate over 8 years being roughly -4%). “There are a lot of breaks and loopholes that allow a company not to pay,” Steve Wamhoff, ITEP’s Director of Federal Tax Policy, told Yahoo Finance. “People, when they think of tax reform, think the government is going to fix the tax code and get rid of breaks and loopholes and get rid tax dodging. What we got at the end of 2017 was not that. It was the opposite of that. The Tax Cuts and jobs act left a lot of special breaks and loopholes in place and created some new ones.” “Of all 60 companies paying taxes for 2018, the first full year under the TCJA, Amazon (AMZN) topped the list with the largest portion of income. In 2018, Amazon paid $0 in taxes on record profit of $11 billion. 2018 was the second year in a row that the e-commerce giant was able to avoid paying taxes. Amazon is joined on the list by other big companies raking in big profits, including Delta Airlines (DAL), Chevron (CVX), Netflix (NFLX), and General Motors (GM). “Instead of paying $16.4 billion in taxes at the 21 percent statutory corporate tax rate,” ITEP noted, “these companies enjoyed a net corporate tax rebate of $4.3 billion.”

Senate clash over SBA unit's powers puts agency's budget in doubt -- Discussions over the Small Business Administration’s fiscal 2020 budget are on hold. Though the House of Representatives recently approved a $100 million credit subsidy for the SBA's 7(a) program, efforts in the Senate's Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship to approve a reauthorization bill have suddenly become mired in a clash over broader regulatory relief. Lawmakers on the committee want to tackle the reauthorization bill before approving a budget for the SBA's fiscal 2020, which begins on Oct. 1. The stalemate spurred a flurry of political finger-pointing. Progress on reauthorization was halted after Democrats objected to a series of proposals aimed at giving small businesses more chances to comment on regulations that could pinch their bottom lines, said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who also chairs the committee. “Legislating requires compromise, but it is now clear that there are irreconcilable differences when it comes to easing the regulatory burden of America’s more than 30 million small business,” Rubio said in a press release. At the heart of the dispute is a proposal that would let the SBA’s Office of Advocacy challenge other agencies' determinations that proposed regulations will not harm small businesses. It would also require the challenged agency to publish the Office of Advocacy's letter in the Federal Register, allow time for public comment and publish the results of its review. That plan, as well as several other reform proposals, are “poison-pill measures that hamstring federal agencies’ ability to protect workers and the environment,” said Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., the committee’s ranking minority member. “Rather than being narrowly designed to help small businesses, the regulatory section of the chairman’s mark implements a wish list from corporate interests who seek to stifle government regulations that protect our health and safety,”

Michael Hudson: The Coming Savings Writedowns - - Debts that can’t be paid, won’t be. That point inevitably arrives on the liabilities side of the economy’s balance sheet. But what of the asset side? One person’s debt is a creditor’s claim for payment. This is defined as “savings,” even though banks simply create credit endogenously on their own computers without needing any prior savings. When debts can’t be paid and debtors default, what happens to these creditors? As President Obama showed, banks and bondholders can be bailed out by new Federal Reserve money creation. That is what the $4.6 trillion in Quantitative Easing since 2008 was all about. The Fed has spent the last few years supporting stock market prices (and holding down gold prices) by manipulating the forward option markets. But this artificial life support to keep the debt overhead afloat is nearing the reality of the debt wall. The European Central Bank has almost run out of available euro-bonds to buy. The new fallback position to keep the increasingly zombified U.S. and Eurozone financial markets afloat is to experiment with negative interest rates. Writing down savings by a few percentage points helps bring the glut of creditor claims marginally back towards balancing bank deposits with the ability of debtors to pay. But such marginal moves are rarely sufficient. A quantum leap is needed.. The recent experiment in negative interest rates writing down savings as a necessary compliment to the inevitable debt writedowns means that financial policy makes are beginning to fact the hitherto unthinkable fact that many zombie companies and debtors have no foreseeable means of paying the amounts that they owe on paper.

CFPB extends comment period on debt collection plan -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is extending the comment period for its debt collection proposal by 30 days to Sept. 18 to give consumer groups more time to respond. In July, consumer groups asked for a 60-day extension due to the “lengthy and complicated proposal.” The bureau’s 538-page plan marks the first major change to the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act since it passed in 1977. For the first time, debt collectors would be permitted unlimited contact with consumers via voicemail, email and text messages, even prior to confirming that the person owes the debt in question. But consumers would also be allowed to opt out of being contacted by collectors via non-telephone communications. Under the plan restricts, debt collectors can phone consumers no more than seven times a week. The FDCPA prohibits debt collectors from making abusive, misleading or false representations and from unfair practices in the collection of a debt. 

Regulators aim to release CRA plan in 'next few months': FDIC chief — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams said it could still be months before regulators unveil their proposal to reform the Community Reinvestment Act. McWilliams, whose agency has been working on a CRA update along with the Federal Reserve Board and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said the regulators have made progress but acknowledged that the reform process has been slow. The agencies are “looking to put something out in the next few months,” she said in remarks Wednesday to a conference hosted by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Regulators last revised CRA policy in the mid-'90s but are considering another overhaul as the evolution of banks' digital footprints is out of step with the 1977 law. CRA grades institutions' efforts to reallocate resources in their regional communities, defined by their physical branch networks. The OCC was the first of the three bank regulators to invite questions on how to revamp the 40-year-old law. The OCC amassed roughly 1,500 comments that were shared with the other two agencies. Among possible reforms are expanding banks' CRA assessment areas, greater clarity for institutions about what qualifies for CRA credit and ensuring that CRA investments are allocated to entities most in need of credit. McWilliams said the regulators are “trying to think outside of the box.” “Someone recommended that rural states’ broadband access is questionable at times or unavailable, and whether or not broadband investments should qualify for CRA credit," she said. "And I’m open to it because we need to be thinking more broadly than just what was envisioned in 1977 and 1995.”

Mnuchin's former bank agrees to $100M redlining settlement - The Department of Housing and Urban Development approved a $100 million settlement in favor of the California Reinvestment Coalition against CIT Group's OneWest Bank. The agreement resolves allegations that the bank discriminated in its lending services by redlining throughout Los Angeles. The CRC filed a fair housing complaint with HUD against OneWest in 2016. Both Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting previously were chairman of OneWest. "This agreement has the potential to bring about positive change for communities most impacted by discrimination and redlining," Kevin Stein, deputy director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, said in a press release. "It will create a meaningful chance for groups most often targeted for abuse to own a home and build wealth over time. The bank's commitment to provide $5 million in subsidies to eligible borrowers and $100 million in home lending, including marketing FHA loans, will enable more Californians to remain and thrive in their neighborhoods." The major commitments of the settlement include $100 million in home loans for Southern California neighborhoods of color. OneWest must open a full-service branch in a low- or moderate-income minority area. The bank must also provide owner-occupied homes with nonjumbo loans a $5 million subsidy fund for closing costs, down payment assistance, interest rate or insurance premium reduction, as well as offer and market Federal Housing Administration loans. "Homeownership is the foundation of the American dream," Anna María Farías, HUD's assistant secretary for fair housing and equal opportunity, said in the release. "Today's settlement is an important step toward ensuring access to that dream for all borrowers, regardless of their race or national origin." 

HUD plan would raise bar for claims of fair-lending abuse — The Department of Housing and Urban Development is planning to amend its "disparate impact" standard to raise the legal bar for plaintiffs alleging discrimination under the Fair Housing Act. Under a proposal that circulated Wednesday but has not officially been unveiled, a consumer would have to follow a more rigorous five-step framework to demonstrate that discrimination occurred. The "disparate impact" doctrine can be used to punish lenders for discriminatory effects even if none were intended. “Plaintiffs must identify the particular policy or practice which causes the disparate impact,” said HUD in its notice of proposed rulemaking. The proposal, which has not yet been published but was submitted for congressional review Monday, was first reported by Bloomberg Law. The "disparate impact" standard, as a basis for alleging fair-lending violations, has long been unpopular with lending institutions. In 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that such a standard does apply under the Fair Housing Act, but left it to HUD to determine if changes to its disparate impact rule were necessary. The proposal essentially says disparate impact claims can be invalidated if the plaintiff does not point to a single decision made by the company that led to a discriminatory outcome. “Plaintiffs will likely not meet the standard, and HUD will not bring a disparate impact claim, alleging that a single event … is the cause of a disparate impact, unless the plaintiff can show that the single decision is the equivalent of a policy or practice,” the proposal says.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June - Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.70% in June, from 0.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.97% in June 2018.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.This equals last month as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since July 2007. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.61% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (93% of portfolio), only 0.32% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.  The increase in the delinquency rate in late 2017 was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market. I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.4 to 0.6 percent or so to a cycle bottom. Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier. 

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2019.The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 84 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago....“Mortgage applications were lower last week, driven by a 3 percent decrease in purchase applications. While purchase activity was still up 6 percent from a year ago, the index has now decreased for three straight weeks and reached its lowest point since March. Despite healthy demand, inadequate supply levels continue to hold back some would-be buyers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Rate movements were mixed, with the 30-year fixed rate remaining unchanged (at 4.08 percent), but the FHA rate decreasing to its lowest level since 2017 to 3.94 percent.”Added Kan, “Refinance applications were essentially flat, but the components told different stories. Conventional refinances were up 1.1 percent, but government refinances were down almost 3 percent – led by a drop in VA applications.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) remained unchanged at 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.4% year-over-year in May --S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.  From S&P: Annual Home Price Gains Dip to 3.4% According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual gain in May, down from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.2%, down from 2.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.5% in the previous month.Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Las Vegas led the way with a 6.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 5.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.1% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2019 versus the year ending April 2019.... Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.8% in May. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.6% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in May. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both reported a 0.1% increase. In May, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.“Nationally, year-over-year home price gains were lower in May than in April, but not dramatically so and a broad-based moderation continued,” says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Among 20 major U.S. city home price indices, the average YOY gain has been declining for the past year or so and now stands at the moderate nominal YOY rate of 3.1%.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: "Annual Home Price Gains Dip to 3.4%" With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.14% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 6.7% for the last two-plus years. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high. The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was up 0.14% from the previous month. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 2.4% year-over-year.. Here is an excerpt from the analysis in today's Standard & Poor's press release.“Among 20 major U.S. city home price indices, the average YOY gain has been declining for the past year or so and now stands at the moderate nominal YOY rate of 3.1%.“Though home price gains seem generally sustainable for the time being, there are significant variations between YOY rates of change in individual cities. Seattle’s home price index is now 1.2% lower than it was in May 2018, the first negative YOY change recorded in a major city in a number of years. On the other hand, Las Vegas and Phoenix, while cooler than they were during 2018, remain quite strong at 6.4% and 5.7% YOY gains, respectively. Whether negative YOY rates of change spread to other cities remains to be seen; for now, there is still substantial diversity in local trends. Nationally, increasing housing supply points to somewhat weakened demand, but the fact that seven cities experienced stronger YOY price gains in May than they did in April suggests an underlying resiliency that may mitigate the risk of overshooting to the downside at the national level.” [Link to source]The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We've used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.

Case-Shiller Home Price Appreciation Slows For 14th Straight Month - US home price appreciation slowed for the 14th month in a row in May, rising only 2.39% YoY (below expectations), its weakest home price growth since Aug 2012... “Though home price gains seem generally sustainable for the time being, there are significant variations between YOY rates of change in individual cities,” Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release.“Seattle’s home price index is now 1.2% lower than it was in May 2018, the first negative YOY change recorded in a major city in a number of years.” Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities; seven of the 20 cities reported greater annual price increases in May.Finally, there is a potential silver lining - if history is any guide... Lower rates may be set to drag home prices higher.

Dominoes Start To Fall- Seattle Is First Major US City With Annual Home Price Decline Since Crisis - The nationwide housing bust is underway with the first cracks showing up in Seattle-area home prices.The price of a Seattle single-family home in May fell 1.2% YoY, the first negative change in a major US city in this cycle, according to new data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. "Whether negative YOY rates of change spread to other cities remains to be seen," said S&P Dow Jones Indices Director and Global Head of Index Governance Philip Murphy, in a statement. "For now, there is still substantial diversity in local trends."Eric Basmajian, Founder of EPB Macro Research, said an industrial slowdown has moved into real estate and is now affecting some areas in services, has the potential to create "negative wealth effect," something that most Americans haven't seen since the last recession. He warned if more cities experience negative home price growth YoY, like Seattle, this will undoubtedly put downward pressure on the domestic economy in the coming quarters."As the deceleration in economic activity becomes increasingly pervasive, spreading from manufacturing to housing and now some areas of the service sector, the potential for a negative wealth effect has reemerged - a dynamic not seen for most of this economic cycle. The growth rate in the national home price index has dropped to an 80 month low, falling below 3.5% year over year. While the national index continues to decelerate, holding above the zero bound, the latest data showed Seattle recording the first negative reading in year over year home price growth, falling 1.2% compared to the same month last year.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Mostly Lower YoY Price Gains in June compared to May -- The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: May Case-Shiller Results and June Forecast: Still Tapping on the Brakes Low mortgage rates and consumer demand typically would create a bonanza for builders and the housing market overall. In recent years, builders have faced high land and labor costs that prevented them from putting up homes fast enough, particularly at the less expensive end of the market where first-time buyers search.  The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.4% in June, the same as in May. The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 2.2% YoY in June from 2.4% in May, and for the 10-City index to decline to 2.0% YoY compared to 2.2% YoY in May.

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Climb 2.8% in June" -- From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climb 2.8% in June - Pending home sales continued to ascend in June, marking two consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions recorded a rise in contract activity, with the West experiencing the highest surge.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, moved up 2.8% to 108.3 in June, up from 105.4 in May. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 1.6%, snapping a 17-month streak of annual decreases. All regional indices are up from May and from one year ago. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 2.7% to 94.5 in June and is now 0.9% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 3.3% to 103.6 in June, 1.7% greater than June 2018.Pending home sales in the South increased 1.3% to an index of 125.7 in June, which is 1.4% higher than last June. The index in the West soared 5.4% in June to 96.8 and increased 2.5% above a year ago. This was well above expectations of a 0.3% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.

Q2 2019 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate - The BEA has released the underlying details for the Q2 initial GDP report.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 10.6% annual pace in Q2.Investment in petroleum and natural gas exploration decreased in Q2 compared to Q2, and was down 8% year-over-year, but has increased substantially over the last two years.The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP.Investment in offices increased in Q2, and is up 9% year-over-year.Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 37% year-over-year in Q1 - and at a record low as a percent of GDP.   The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.Lodging investment increased in Q2, and lodging investment is up 6% year-over-year. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).Usually single family investment is the top category, although home improvement was the top category for five consecutive years following the housing bust.  Then investment in single family structures was back on top, however it is close between single family and home improvement.Even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom, single family investment is still very low, and still below the bottom for previous recessions as a percent of GDP. I expect some further increases.Investment in single family structures was $267 billion (SAAR) (about 1.3% of GDP).. Investment in multi-family structures increased in Q2. Investment in home improvement was at a $261 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q2 (about 1.2% of GDP).  Home improvement spending has been solid.

Construction Spending Declined in June -- From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in June:Construction spending during June 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,287.0 billion, 1.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $1,303.4 billion. The June figure is 2.1 percent below the June 2018 estimate of $1,314.8 billion.Both private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $962.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $967.0 billion. ... In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $324.1 billion, 3.7 percent below the revised May estimate of $336.4 billion This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential spending had been increasing - but turned down in the 2nd half of 2018 - and is now 25% below the bubble peak.  Non-residential spending is 10% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is at the previous peak in March 2009, and 24% above the austerity low in February 2014.  The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 8%. Non-residential spending is down slightly year-over-year. Public spending is up 6% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations, however spending for April and May was revised up. Another weak construction spending report.

Leading Indicator Of Home-Remodeling Activity Warns Big Drop Coming  - Growth in residential remodeling spending is expected to fall through 2H20, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) published by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.The leading indicator [LIRA] forecasts that annual growth in homeowner expenditures for improvement will plunge 6.3% in the current quarter to just .40% by late spring 2020, an ominous sign that a deep structural slowdown which started in 1Q18 is now spreading like cancer through the broader economy. "Declining home sales and homebuilding activity coupled with slower gains in permitting for improvement projects will put the brakes on remodeling growth over the coming year," says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. "However, if falling mortgage interest rates continue to incentivize home sales, refinancing, and ultimately remodeling activity, the slowdown may soften some." "With the release of new benchmark data from the American Housing Survey, we've also lowered our projection for market size about 6% to $323 billion," says Abbe Will, Associate Project Director in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. "Spending in 2016 and 2017 was not nearly as robust as expected, growing only 5.4% over these two years compared to 11.9% as estimated."Fannie Mae has reported sales of existing homes will total 5.35 million in 2019, flat from last year's 5.34 million. Data from the National Association of Realtors shows existing-home sales reached a post-housing-bust high of 5.51 million in 2017 - but since - the trend has stalled. Another measure of the remodeling market is the confidence of building contractors which topped in December 2017 and has formed a top comparable to what was seen in June 2005, June 1999, November 1993, and December 1986/88. Over the last three decades, as soon as the Federal Reserve transitions from a tightening cycle to pause, then cutting, the confidence of building contractors tends to crash.

Personal Income increased 0.4% in June, Spending increased 0.3% --The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:Personal income increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $69.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.0 billion (0.3 percent).Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in June and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.The June PCE price index increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and the June PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.6 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2019 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.The increase in personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was at expectations. PCE growth was solid in Q2, and inflation was below the Fed's target.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita in June - With the release of this morning's report on June Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.25% when we adjust for inflation. This is down from last month's nominal and up from the 0.16% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 4.02% nominal and 2.63% real. Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015. Disposable income picked up in 2018.  The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013. It will be interesting to see how the recent tax legislation affects the trend over time. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000.  Nominal disposable income is up 95.1% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up only 37.6%.

Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE - Note: Back in early 2016, I noted that energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had hit an all time low. Here is an update through the June 2019 PCE report released this morning. Below is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through June 2019.This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices. Data source: BEA Table 2.3.5U. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.In June 2019, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased to 3.91% of PCE, up from the all time low of 3.65% in February 2016. Energy as a percent of GDP has been generally trending down, and historically this is a low percentage of PCE for energy expenditures.

Consumer Confidence Rebounded in July -The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through July 18. The headline number of 135.7 was an increase from the final reading of 124.3 for June. Today's number was below theInvesting.com consensus of 125.0.“After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.” The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Consumer Boom and Producer Woes Show U.S. Economic Growth Divide - Friday’s U.S. growth figures and earnings reports this month both illustrated a sharp divide between booming consumer spending and leaner times for producers. The economy grew at a 2.1% pace in the second quarter, close to the average during the 10-year expansion that became the country’s longest on record this month. But robust consumption was undercut by the first drop in business investment in three years and falling exports, partly reflecting trade tensions and weak global growth. That poses questions for the economy: How fast can it keep growing, and how long will consumers come to the rescue? So far, it looks like Americans’ wallets are in good shape as sentiment remains strong, though warning signs are emerging. “We typically see when people are concerned about the outlook, individual consumers they tighten up on big-ticket purchases, and so that’s reflected,” Dow Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jim Fitterling said on a call Thursday. He cited strength on the consumer non-durable side, such as health and beauty care, packaging, and daily activities like retail and restaurants. Here are some insights that illustrate the case for whether growth will hold up -- or falter:

• Restaurants: Starbucks Corp., McDonald’s Corp. and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reported surprisingly strong sales growth last quarter, proving that diners were still in the market for cold beverages, breakfast sandwiches and burritos.
• Snacks and drinks: PepsiCo Inc.’s Cheetos and Ruffles helped drive snack revenue in North America up 5% last quarter. Sales were particularly strong in convenience stores, showing shoppers are feeling flush enough to give into cravings on the go.
• Airlines: The grounding of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max isn’t helping airline profits, but underlying demand for leisure travel remains strong.
• Autos: The sector is on the precipice of a big cyclical downturn for the first time in years, and manufacturers are frantically reducing capacity and cutting tens of thousands of jobs, from Ford Motor Co. to Nissan Motor Co.
• Chemicals: The auto industry’s malaise is also hitting makers of coatings and catalysts, like BASF SE, and polyurethane for car seats, like Dow. A slowdown in agriculture, because of tariffs and wet weather, hurt Eastman Chemical Co., which makes materials used in agrochemicals and animal nutrition.

Families Drowning in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class - - Yves Smith -- The Wall Street Journal has an important story on how people with what seems like pretty good household incomes are getting more and more indebted in keeping a middle class lifestyle.  The Journal gives a sympathetic portrayal, using some recent work by Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin to show how much significant costs have risen relative to wages. From the story:  Median household income in the U.S. was $61,372 at the end of 2017, according to the Census Bureau. When inflation is taken into account, that is just above the 1999 level. Over a longer stretch—the three decades through 2017—incomes are up 14% in inflation-adjusted terms.  Average housing prices, however, swelled 290% over those three decades in inflation-adjusted terms, according to an analysis by Adam Levitin, a Georgetown Law professor who studies bankruptcy, financial regulation and consumer finance. Average tuition at public four-year colleges went up 311%, adjusted for inflation, by his calculation. And average per capita personal health-care expenditures rose about 51% in real terms over a slightly shorter period, 1990 to 2017.  The article gives a layperson-friendly version of a traditional economist’s argument in favor of easy access to consumer debt, namely “smoothing of expenditures.” That’s a polite way of saying going into debt to buy education, or a car, or a vacation, or Christmas presents.The problem, of course, is that that view assumes that future income will be there. In a world where the average job tenure is only a bit over four years, anything other than very modest use of debt runs the risk of getting caught on a treadmill, particularly with so many lenders set up to kick already not-low interest rates up to penalty levels in the event of a late payment. Arguably things are better on some fronts:Counting all kinds of debt, including mortgages, consumers aren’t nearly as debt-burdened as they once were. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the last year before the financial crisis struck, households devoted 13.2% of their disposable income to debt service. In the first quarter of 2019, that number was 9.9%, largely due to low interest rates.Partly because of widespread refinancing, mortgage payments since the start of 2017 have claimed the smallest slice of disposable personal income in decades, in the low 4% range, according to Fed data. The reason this is less meaningful than it might seem is that the rise in health insurance and medical care costs have eaten away at disposable income. In addition, with interest rates super low, saving enough to have an adequate income in retirement becomes more daunting. And parents are pressured to save to help put their kids though college.

Lowe’s lays off thousands of workers - Home improvement retailer Lowe’s has told thousands of workers that their jobs are being eliminated.The company plans to outsource jobs of maintenance and assembly workers to third-party companies. The assembly workers put together products such as wheelbarrows and grills.“We are moving to third-party assemblers and facility services to allow Lowe’s store associates to spend more time on the sales floor serving customers. Associates who were in these positions will be given transition pay and have the opportunity to apply for open roles at Lowe’s,” the company said in a statement to CNBC.News of the layoffs was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.The company said in a securities filing earlier this year that, as of Feb. 1, it had roughly 190,000 full-time employees and another 110,000 part-time workers.Lowe’s has added jobs outside of its traditional retail centers. The company announced in April that it is opening a new technology center in North Carolina and would hire up to 2,000 employees there. The company’s stock, which has a market value of $78 billion, closed down nearly 2% on Thursday. Lowe’s shares are up nearly 8% since the start of the year.Since CEO Marvin Ellison took over in July 2018, Lowe’s has been shuttering stores to reduce costs. The company said it currently has 1,725 stores in the United States. The store closures have been part of a bigger trend in retail. So far this year,more than 7,000 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers, according to a tracking done by Coresight Research. And the tally could top 12,000 by the end the year, setting a record, Coresight says. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time high of 8,139 closures announced in 2017.

Sears Employees' Life Insurance Payments Could Amount To Just $135 Per Person - People who retired after spending decades working for department store Sears came together early in 2019 to protest the company's plan to terminate their life insurance as part of its bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg. And it seems as though they have good reason to. Benefits that once would have been worth as much as tens of thousands of dollars have been priced at just $135 by the Sears estate in a proposal to its former employees. It's another blow in a long line of disasters for Sears employees who have worked for - or are still working for - the company through its transition into bankruptcy. Sears filed for bankruptcy last year and sold its stores and most of its assets to the Eddie Lampert-owned ESL Investments, Inc. in the beginning of this year. The Sears estate, responsible for settling old debts, was left behind. The plan for retirees provided policies to about 29,000 former workers with benefits between $5,000 and $14,000. A smaller group of senior executives had policies with death benefits that ranged from $356,000 and $2.7 million. The new proposal would terminate the plan altogether and award employees an unsecured claim of $5,000. But due to the estate's limited resources, unsecured claims would get about 2.3% to 2.7% of what they are owed in payouts. This would be between $115 to $135.

 The biggest mall owner in the US could save retailers on the cusp of going out of business - The biggest mall owner in the U.S., Simon Property Group, on Wednesday said it’s considering more opportunities where it would invest in a retailer to help keep it afloat. “I think it’s very possible — we’re going to be very smart about it,” Simon CEO David Simon said on a post-earnings conference call when asked if he would consider investing in more of the landlord’s tenants. “We’re certainly as good as the private-equity guys when it comes to retail investment. And so, I wouldn’t rule it out.” “We’ll work together on other distressed situations.” But, he added, “we’re only going to buy into companies that we think have brands and that have the volume that is worth doing it.” Just about three years ago, Simon and mall owner General Growth Properties, which is now owned by Brookfield Property Partners, teamed up to rescue embattled teen apparel retailer Aeropostale. The two were part of a group that ultimately won an auction to buy the Aeropostale brand out of bankruptcy court, salvaging its real estate. At the time, Simon had about 160 Aeropostale stores in its portfolio, while GGP had 77. A total liquidation would have left them with more than 200 empty shops. Now, as more than 7,000 store closure announcements have already funneled through this year, with more expected to come, Simon could be eyeing other deals similar to this one. It’s already a partner with Authentic Brands Group, a house for brands such as Juicy Couture and Nautica, and recently became a shareholder in e-sports provider Allied Esports, with plans to open up more gaming venues at its malls.

United Airlines Is Expanding Its Creepy Biometric Screening Technology to More Airport Hubs -- United Airlines announced this week that it’s investing in the growth of biometric screening technology in a bid to streamline passenger travel—even as big questions remain about how such technology impacts consumer privacy.The airline says it’s making an unspecified equity investment in Clear, a company that matches passengers against scans of their irises and fingerprints in place of traditional identification checks. Additionally, United said it’s expanding its use of Clear technology to its Newark Liberty International Airport and Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport hubs, and working to open Clear lanes at Chicago O’Hare in the months ahead. As part of a newly announced partnership, United is offering free memberships to its Clear program—which costs $179 annually—to some of its most elite flyers with Global Services and Premier 1K. United’s Premier Platinum, Gold, and Silver members, as well as most other United cardholders, can sign up for the Clear program for $109 a year. MileagePlus members can pay a discounted rate of $119 for Clear access.According to the Wall Street Journal, Clear operates out of more than 30 airports, in addition to arenas, stadiums, and some Hertz rental locations. United has already introduced Clear technology in airports in Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington Dulles, the airline said. Those who champion the use of biometric data in place of traditional ID checks at airport security checkpoints have positioned the technology as a way of streamlining an often congested and frustrating system. But the use of biometric screening raises some serious privacy and surveillance questions, such as how this type of data will be stored and who will have access to it. Airlines, for their part, have not been especially forthright about their use of such technology.

FAA Let Boeing Sign Its Own Safety Certifications On The 737 Max - Thanks to a 'broken regulatory process,' the Federal Aviation Administration has been passing off routine oversight tasks to manufacturers for years. In the case of the beleagured 737 Max, however, the plane was so advanced that the regulator "handed nearly complete control to Boeing," which was able to sign off on its own safety certificates, according to the New York Times. The lack of regulatory oversight meant that the FAA had no clue how Boeing's automated anti-stall system, known as MCAS, worked. In fact, "regulators had never independently assessed the risks of the dangerous software" when they issued a 2017 approval for the plane. The company performed its own assessments of the system, which were not stress-tested by the regulator. Turnover at the agency left two relatively inexperienced engineers overseeing Boeing’s early work on the system.The F.A.A. eventually handed over responsibility for approval of MCAS to the manufacturer. After that, Boeing didn’t have to share the details of the system with the two agency engineers. They weren’t aware of its intricacies, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. -New York TimesDuring the late stages of the Max's development, Boeing engineers decided to increase the plane's reliance on MCAS to fly smoothly.  Unfortunately, a new version of the system relied on a single sensor which could malfunction and push the plane into a nosedive. Boeing never submitted a formal assessment of the MCAS system following its upgrade - which wasn't required by FAA rules. An agency official claims that an engineering test pilot was familiar with the changes, however his job was to evaluate its  effect on how the plane flew - not on its safety.

Yet Another Freight Company Unexpectedly Ceases Operations And Closes Its Doors -Yet another trucking company has fallen victim to the recession in freight this year, according to FreightWaves. Terrill Transportation of Livermore, California shut its doors unexpectedly on July 30. The company had been in business 25 years.  Customer Manny Bhandal, president of Bhandal Bros. Inc., said that three of his trucks arrived at Terrill on July 30 to drop off a shipment and were turned away. Kevin Terrill, president of Terrill Transportation, did not respond to FreightWaves. “We did get an email from one of their receiving clerks, basically apologizing that they couldn’t receive our trucks because they were ceasing operations,” Bhandal said.“This year has been very tough on a lot of companies,” he continued.  A chief executive of another trucking company based in the Northwest called Kevin Terrill, who confirmed the news over the phone. “He [Kevin] said rate concessions on both the trucking and warehousing side, driver wages being up and the tough environment to do business in California were to blame for the closure,” the anonymous executive said. Terrill had 30 trucks and 36 company drivers, in addition to 12 owner-operators. This closure marks the seventh freight company to shut down in 2019 alone, a fter NEMF, Falcon, Williams Trucking of Dothan, Alabama, and Indiana-based A.L.A. and Starlite Trucking and LME.

Trade Deficit decreased to $55.2 Billion in June --From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised. June exports were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion less than May exports. June imports were $261.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports..Exports and imports decreased in June.Exports are 25% above the pre-recession peak and down 2% compared to June 2018; imports are 13% above the pre-recession peak, and up 1% compared to June 2018.In general, trade had been picking up, but both imports and exports have moved more sideways recently.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.  The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Oil imports averaged $59.18 per barrel in June, down from $60.56 in May, and down from $62.46 in June 2018. The trade deficit with China decreased to $30.0 billion in June, from $33.8 billion in June 2018.

US-China Goods Trade Deficit Hits 5-Month High - Having seen 'success' at the start of the year with the trade deficit with China plunge (reduced deficit), the last three months - as tariff tensions have escalated, despite a so-called trade-truce - have seen the China trade deficit accelerate once again. America's merchandise trade deficit with China widened slightly in June to a five-month high. As Bloomberg reports, so far this year, the U.S. merchandise deficit with China has narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $179.8 billion, compared with $200.4 billion in the same six months of 2018. U.S. exports to China are down 18.1% this year, while imports have fallen 12.2%, a reflection of dwindling two-way trade. More broadly, the overall trade deficit in June showed a slightly larger decline in the value of imports than exports, capping a quarter in which the shortfall weighed on economic growth. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a deficit of $54.6 billion. The real petroleum gap narrowed to an all-time low of $5.7 billion as inflation-adjusted petroleum exports reached a record high of $23.3 billion.

Equipment Investment, Capital Goods Imports, and the Impending Slowdown…Again --Menzie Chinn - Equipment investment is flat; capital goods imports (aside from aircraft and computers) declining 4% per annum. Figure 1: Equipment investment (dark blue), and capital goods imports excluding aircraft and computers (red), four quarter change  as log ratio to GDP, all in 2012Ch.$. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Light orange denotes Trump administration. Orange denotes TCJA in effect. Source: BEA 2019Q2 advance, NBER, and author’s calculations.Capital goods imports (as a share of GDP) growth is now below zero, while equipment investment growth is at zero. Concurrent negative growth rates signalled the beginning of the 2001 recession, and the worst part of the 2007-09 recession. Of course, concurrent negative growth also signalled the mini- (but not actual) recession of 2016 (2015Q3).Estimating a probit regression using the investment variable as coincident (not leading) variable, one obtains (1986Q1-2019Q2):Pr(recession) = –1.32 – 12.21dinvgdp + u  McFadden R2 = 0.30, n = 134. bold denotes significance at 5% msl. I assume that in reality, no recession occurred as of 2019Q2 in defining the recession variable. The current implied probability of recession as of 2019Q2 is 8%; in 2007Q3 (using latest revised data), the probability was…7%.

U.S. factory orders rise less than expected in June - (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods rose less than expected in June and unfilled orders continued to shrink, pointing to persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector. Factory goods orders increased 0.6%, boosted by demand for machinery and transportation equipment, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for May was revised down to show factory orders falling 1.3% instead of dropping 0.7% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would rise 0.8% in June. Shipments of manufactured goods increased 0.4% in June after edging up 0.1% in May. Unfilled orders at factories dropped 0.7% after declining 0.8% in May. Inventories rose 0.2% after the same gain in May. Factory orders increased 0.2% compared to June 2018. The problems in manufacturing and accompanying weak business investment have caught the attention of Federal Reserve officials. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 to insure against downside risks to the economy from trade tensions and slowing global growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described manufacturing as “not growing much,” saying “we hope to help that with this rate cut.” Manufacturing, which accounts for more than 12% of the U.S. economy, has been hamstrung by trade tensions, weakening global growth, an inventory bulge - concentrated in the automotive industry - and design problems at aerospace giant Boeing. A survey on Monday showed a measure of national factory activity dropped to near a three-year low in July, with manufacturers saying “trade remains a significant issue.” Transportation equipment orders rebounded 3.7% in June after dropping 7.5% in May. Orders for civilian aircraft and parts soared 75.1% after tumbling 52.0% in May. The surge in aircraft orders is likely to be short-lived as Boeing has cut production and deliveries of its bestselling MAX 737 aircraft, which was grounded in March after two fatal plane crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Machinery orders jumped 2.1% after edging up 0.1% in May. The Commerce Department also said June orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, increased 1.5% instead of the 1.9% surge reported last month. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the gross domestic product report, rose 0.3% in June instead of 0.6% as previously reported.

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.2 in July - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in July. The PMI was at 51.2% in July, down from 51.7% in June. The employment index was at 51.7%, down from 54.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 50.8%, up from 50.0%.  From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®   “The July PMI® registered 51.2 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the June reading of 51.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 50.8 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the June reading of 50 percent. The Production Index registered 50.8 percent, a 3.3-percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.7 percent, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the June reading of 54.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.3 percent, a 2.6-percentage point increase from the June reading of 50.7 percent. The Inventories Index registered 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the June reading of 49.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.1 percent, a 2.8-percentage point decrease from the June reading of 47.9 percent. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.  This was below expectations of 51.9%, and suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in July than in June.

Markit Manufacturing: "PMI falls to lowest since September 2009" - The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 50.4, down 0.2 from the 50.6 final June figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release: "US manufacturing has entered into its sharpest downturn since 2009, suggesting the goods-producing sector is on course to act as a significant drag on the economy in the third quarter. The deterioration in the survey’s output index is indicative of manufacturing production declining at an annualised rate in excess of 3%." [Press Release]  Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

The Situation Is Crazy - US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 10-Year Lows - With China, Europe, and Japan Manufacturing PMIs are all signaling contraction, US Manufacturing PMI dropped to its weakest since September 2009 (at 50.4 vs 50.6 prior) and ISM Manufacturing tumbled to 51.2 - the lowest since Aug 2016.While manufacturing makes up only about 11% of the U.S. economy, the risk is that further weakness will extend to service providers and prompt those companies to reduce investment and limit hiring, endangering the record-long expansion. Under the hood PMI is really ugly with employment contracting fore the first time since June 2013 and output expectations plunge to record lows; and ISM employment and prices paid plunged even if respondents claim prices are soaring because of tariffs (as new orders rebounded modestly). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:"US manufacturing has entered into its sharpest downturn since 2009, suggesting the goods-producing sector is on course to act as a significant drag on the economy in the third quarter. The deterioration in the survey’s output index is indicative of manufacturing production declining at an annualised rate in excess of 3%. “Falling business spending at home and declining exports are the main drivers of the downturn, with firms also cutting back on input buying as the outlook grows gloomier. US manufacturers’ expectations of output in the year ahead has sunk to its lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012, with worries focused on the detrimental impact of escalating trade wars, fears of slower economic growth and rising geopolitical worries.“Employment is now also falling for only the second time in almost ten years as factories pull back on hiring amid the growing uncertainty. “More positively, new order inflows picked up for a second successive month. Although remaining worryingly subdued compared to the strong growth seen earlier in the year, the modest improvement will fuel hope that production growth could tick higher in August.” While US Manufacturing PMI is at its weakest in a decade, it remains in expansion unlike the rest of the world...

July ISM manufacturing, June residential construction both better than expected - We got two important leading indicators this morning. Both were better than expected. First, July data started out with an ISM manufacturing index reading that declined slightly to 51.2, but remained above the neutral level of 50.0. Even more important, the new orders subindex rose slightly to 50.8: Manufacturing as measured by this index, as well as the regional Fed indexes, has been slow, but has doggedly resisted going into contraction. June construction spending declined, as did the component of residential construction. But the good news here is that there were substantial upward revisions to the last few months, so the final number was about 1% higher than the initial reading for last month: Construction spending follows permits and starts with a lag, but is much less noisy. I don’t think we’ve reached bottom yet in this metric, but with the revisions the June number has to be treated as a positive. One last thing: looking ahead to tomorrow’s employment report, the American Staffing Index had the worst YoY reading of the year so far this week, at -3.7%:   So I’m expecting weak numbers for the leading manufacturing, residential construction, and temporary employment sectors tomorrow, at least as compared with last year, with the most likely negative number being in temporary employment.

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Continues Moderate Expansion" --From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Continues Moderate Expansion Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved from 8.9 to 9.3, indicating output growth continued at roughly the same pace as in June. Other measures of manufacturing activity suggested a slightly faster expansion in July. The new orders index edged up to 5.5, and the growth rate of orders index rebounded into positive territory, climbing nine points to 2.7. The capacity utilization index inched up to 11.2, and the shipments index jumped nine points to 10.2.Perceptions of broader business conditions were less negative in July. The general business activity index rose six points but remained in negative territory for a third month in a row, coming in at -6.3. The company outlook index rose five points to -0.9, with the near-zero reading indicating that the share of firms noting a worsened outlook roughly equaled the share noting an improved outlook. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks retreated 12 points from its June peak, coming in at 9.7. Labor market measures suggested robust growth in employment and work hours in July. The employment index rose seven points to 16.0, a reading well above average. Twenty-four percent of firms noted net hiring, while 8 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index pushed further above average as well with a reading of 6.6. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for July. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

July Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each of the five indicators since 2001 (for those with data). The latest average of the five for July is 1.8, down from the previous month's 3.3. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.

Chicago PMI "Softens to 44.4 in July" --From the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer™ – Softens to 44.4 in July: The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, eased further to 44.4 in July from 49.7 last month, the second sub-50 reading in 30 months.  The weakness in the Barometer observed in Q2 continued into the current quarter, with the latest outturn making it the weakest start to Q3 since 2009....This month’s special question asked firms about their views on the US economy’s growth in the second half of the year. Two in five firms expected the economy to see slower growth than currently, with some holding tariffs responsible for the slowdown. The majority, at 46%, did not expect any change while only 14% expected the economy pick up. “Sentiment faded further with firms facing weakness across the board. Global risks, trade tensions, slowdown in demand and sombre growth expectations, all jeopardize business conditions. Firms are not panicking yet, but the latest report isn’t adding to the cheer. The above risks lend weight to a monetary easing approach by the Fed, albeit a gradual one,” said Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI.

Chicago PMI 2019 Collapse Is The Worst In Over 30 Years - Despite some rebounds in regional Fed surveys, Chicago PMI has fallen for five of the seven months so far in 2019, collapsing in July to 44.4 - the second weakest since the financial crisis. This is the worst drop since the financial crisis. This was dramatically below the 49.5 lowest analyst estimate. Only 2 components rose month-over-month and New orders, Employment, Production and Order Backlogs all contracting

• Business barometer fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
• New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
• Employment fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
• Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
• Production fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction
• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction

This is the worst start to a year for Chicago PMI in at least 30 years...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 206,000 to 207,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,000 to 213,250. The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

ADP: Private Employment increased 156,000 in July -- From ADP:  Private sector employment increased by 156,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... “While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade.”  This was at the consensus forecast for 155,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 156,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

A Closer Look at Today's ADP Employment Report -  In this morning's ADP employment report we got the July estimate of 156K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase over June's revised 112K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that's worth exploring in more detail.Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data in April 2002. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. At present, the six-month moving average has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 200K new jobs since around the middle of 2011. ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. Interestingly, the Goods Producing jobs saw an uptick in late 2016 that has continued.For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series. The latest data point is below the record high. There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence of Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring. For a better sense of the components of the two Goods Producing and Service Providing cohorts, here is a snapshot of the five select industries tracked by ADP. The two things to note here are the relative sizes of the industries and the relative trends. Note that Construction and Manufacturing are Production industries whereas the other three are Service Providing. Another view of the relative trends of the five select industries is an overlay of the year-over-year comparison.For a longer-term perspective on the Goods Producing and Service Providing employment, see our monthly analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor's monthly jobs report reaching back to 1939.

July Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported.... In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.98, following an 8-cent gain in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes). Total payrolls increased by 164 thousand in July (private payrolls increased 148 thousand). Payrolls for May and June were revised down 41 thousand combined.  This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In July, the year-over-year change was 2.246 million jobs. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased in July to 62.9%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics and long term trends. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.6% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged in July at 3.7%. This was close to consensus expectations of 156,000 jobs added, however April and May were revised down by 41,000 combined.

July jobs report: good headline masks signs of serious producer-led slowdown -- HEADLINES: 

• +164,000 jobs added
• U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
• U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% from 7.2% to 7.0% (NEW EXPANSION LOW)

I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were very mixed this month.

• the average manufacturing workweek fell -0.3 from 40.7 hours to 40.4 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI, and will have a big negative impact. THIS IS A SERIOUS DECLINE.
• Manufacturing jobs rose by 16,000. YoY manufacturing is up 157,000, a deceleration from last summer’s pace.
• construction jobs rose by 4,000. YoY construction jobs are up 202,000, also a deceleration from last summer. Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 4000.
• temporary jobs rose by 2200.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by 240,000 from 1,961,000 to 2,201,000. The post-recession low was three months ago.

Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment:

• Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: fell by -279,000 from 5.322 million to 5.043 million
• Part time for economic reasons: declined by -363,000 from 4.347 million to 3.984 million (NEW EXPANSION LOW)
• Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: down -0.2% to 79.5%. This has now declined -0.4% from the peak at the beginning of this year.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.04 from  $23.42 to $23.46, up +3.3% YoY. This is still a slight decline from the recent YoY% change peak. 
• May was revised downward by -10,000. June was also revised downward by -31,000, for a net change of -41,000.
• Overtime declined -0.2 hours to 3.2  hours.
• Professional and business employment (generally higher-paying jobs) rose by 31,000 and  is up +367,000 YoY. 
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined by -0.2%
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.1% 
• the  alternate jobs number contained  in the more volatile household survey rose by 283,000  jobs.  This represents an increase of 1,324,000 jobs YoY vs. 2,246,000 in the establishment survey. This survey, which has been negative three months this year, was a major disconnect from the establishment number. The household survey has a tendency to turn first, and this month it showed up in the establishment survey.
• Government jobs rose by 16,000.
• the overall employment to population ratio for all ages 16 and up rose 0.1% to 60.7% m/m and is up 0.2% YoY.          
• The labor force participation rate rose 0.1% from  62.9% to 63.0% m/m and is up +0.1% YoY.

SUMMARY:  This was a decidedly mixed report, but the big positives were in the coincident category, while the biggest negatives were in the leading category. The positives included a new low in the underemployment rate, including a new low in involuntary part time employment, and continuing if modest gains in the three most leading job categories. The household jobs number also has jumped higher for the second month in a row.  But the negatives were more important in my opinion. Most importantly, the average manufacturing workweek declined seriously, and is down -1.0 hour from its peak, which has almost always presaged a recession. Overall goods producing jobs were only up 16,000, a pathetic share of the total market. The prime age employment to population ratio is now in a significant declining trend from its January peak. Revisions also continued to be negative, and the YoY change in the household jobs survey remains much lower than the establishment survey, two trend changes that have a tendency to change at turning points. The YoY change in the establishment survey is also decelerating.So, while the headline jobs number continues to be quite good, the underlying internals continue to be most consistent with a producer-led serious slowdown.

164K Jobs Added In July, Just As Expected, But Wage Growth Comes Hot - Heading into today's payrolls report, there was some "whisper" expectation that the July print would be a blowout due to a spike in census hiring, however that did not happen and instead the BLS reported that last month 164K jobs were added, right on top of the 165K expected. The strong headline print however, was weakened by substantial historical downward revisions, to wit: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported. What was perhaps most notable is that the report made no mention of hiring in advance of the 2020 census, and even more inexplicably federal payrolls rose just 2,000. Looking at the 6 month moving average, it's obvious that the US economy peaked some time in 2017 and is all downhill from there: Offsetting the weaker downward revisions was the average hourly earnings which came in hotter than expected, as the monthly increase came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, while the annual increase of 3.3% was also above the 3.2% expected, and once again approaching the cycle highs. Alas, not even this data point was strong as the only reason why hourly earnings rose is because average weekly hours worked dropped again, sliding to 34.3 from 34.4, the lowest since 2011. Commenting on this development, Renaissance's Neil Dutta said that the "drop in the workweek is disappointing. Aggregate hours worked up just 0.4% at an annual rate over the last three months." Meanwhile, the far less notable unemployment rate was unchanged from last month, at 3.7%, just above the 3.6% expected. Of note: Hispanic unemployment rose modestly to 4.5% if still near all time lows. Manufacturing payrolls climbed larger-than-forecast 16,000, reflecting 7,200 job gains in the motor vehicle industry. This was the biggest increase in mfg jobs since January. More good news: Business jobs which include real estate, insurance and finance, had the biggest gain since February 2018. And even more good news: the number of people working part-time for economic reasons plunged by 363K to 3.984 million, the lowest since April 2006. And now for some not so good news: the prime-age employment to population fell 0.2%pts from 79.7% to 79.5%,'' notes Skanda Amarnath, director of research and analysis at the Employ America think-tan Some more details from the report:

• Professional and technical services added 31,000 jobs in July, bringing the 12-month job gain to 300,000. In July, employment increased by 11,000 in computer systems design and related services; this industry accounted for about one-third of employment growth in professional and technical services both over the month and over the year. It looks like everyone is learning to code.
• Employment in health care rose by 30,000 over the month, reflecting a gain in ambulatory health care services  (+29,000).
• Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in July.
• Financial activities employment rose by 18,000, with most of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000).
• Mining employment declined by 5,000 in July, after showing little net change in recent months.
• Manufacturing employment changed little in July (+16,000) and thus far in 2019. Job gains in the industry had averaged 22,000 per month in 2018.

Still a solid job market, but with a cloud or two -- Jared Bernstein - Payrolls rose 164,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Wage growth accelerated very slightly–3.1% in June to 3.2% in July (year-over-year nominal hourly pay)–but it has been roughly stalled just north of 3 so far this year. Downward revisions for the prior two months–May and June–appear to have slowed the underlying trend in job growth. In our report from last month, we showed the 3 and 6-month trends to be 170K jobs per month. As this month’s jobs smoother shows, both the 3 and 6 month averages are now about 140K. Part of this is deceleration is because two big job months–January and April–dropped out of the 6 and 3 month averages, so this slowdown may not stick. But if it does, it raises the question of whether job growth is slowing because long expansion is exhausting the supply of workers available to the job market, or whether employer demand is slightly softening (or some combination of the two). As always, it will take many more monthly reports to reliably answer the question, but recent wage trends offer a hint that softening demand could be the dominant factor.As the figures below reveal, particularly the 6-month moving averages (dark line), wage growth is roughly stalled a bit above 3 percent. This could be a function of the unemployment rate low but stable–it has stayed between 3.7 and 4 percent since March of 2018–or it could represent less worker bargaining clout due to slightly weaker labor demand.To be clear, however, these are nuanced reflections as the job market remains strong and, if not at full employment, closer to it than has been the case for most of the past few decades (with the latter 1990s as the most recent exception). In fact, as the next figure shows, while nominal wage growth of mid-wage workers has flattened over the past few months, low inflation has helped to generate solid real gains of about 1.5 percent. Here are a few other notable findings from today’s report:

• —Manufacturing ain’t what it used to be. Over the past 6 months, the factory sector has added just 6,300 jobs/month. Over the prior 6 months, the sector was adding 19,800 per month. The trade war is part of the explanation, and that looks to be getting worse before it gets better.
• —Where are the Census jobs? Typically, by this time in years that end in a ‘9’ we see some hiring of Census takers for the decennial Census. It’s possible that budget issues or the squabble over the citizenship question are slowing hiring in this round, which could be worrisome for the process.
• –Are prime-age epops topping out? This one’s a potential big deal. The prime-age (25-54) employment rate has been a go-to variable for those of us arguing there’s “room-to-run” in the job market. In July, it ticked down slightly from 79.7 to 79.5 percent, exclusively due to women: their rate fell by half-a-percent, from 73.5 to 73 percent. But more notable is the recent trend shown in the figure which shows the variable falling off its peak in recent months. In other work, I’ve noted that the prime-age epop tends to peak before a recession, so this bears close watching (see figure).

Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record High As Old Americans Can't Afford To Retire - While the headline payrolls number was solid and just as expected, if a more detailed read showed some red flags (downward revisions, rising wages only due to less hours worked), one aspect of today's jobs report that will likely become a major talking point for Democrats and other critics of the Trump economy, is that the number of multiple-jobholders soared from 7.855 million in May, to 8.156 million in June, to a new all time of 8,389 million in July, a monthly increase of 233K and 591,000 higher in the past three months, which was a clear indication that the jobs number was far weaker than the headline represents if one excludes all those workers who represented two jobs to the BLS' various surveys. Yet even this number had its silver lining, because while the Establishment Survey's 164K increase was impressive, at the same time the BLS reported that the number of Full-Time workers soared by 291K, which together with June's 453K increase was a dramatic reversal to the trend so far in 2019, where 218K full time jobs had been lost in the January - May period. At the same time part-time jobs rose by only 54K in July, sending the part-time total for the first half to -133K, with most of the improvement thanks to the June number. However, in keeping with the theme that a record number of workers need more than one job to make ends meet, the BLS reported that the labor force participation rate for workers 55 and old surged to the highest level in 7 years. As Bloomberg notes, there are several explanations, with the more innocuous one that as Americans live longer compared with prior generations, they work more at an older age. Alas, the reality probably is that Americans simply haven’t saved enough for retirement, so there’s really no choice. And now, back to the Fed's scheduled rate cuts which will assure that even more savers have no choice but to work until they die, most likely while working on more than one job.

Comments on July Employment Report --The headline jobs number at 164 thousand for July was close to consensus expectations of 156 thousand, however the previous two months were revised down 41 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. Overall this was a decent report. Note: Temporary Decennial Census hiring for July is not available yet (something to watch). In July, the year-over-year employment change was 2.246 million jobs. That is decent year-over-year growth. Wage growth was at expectations. From the BLS: "In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.98, following an 8-cent gain in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.  This graph is based on “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report.  The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  Nominal wage growth was at 3.2% YoY in July. Wage growth had been generally trending up, but has weakened recently.  Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle. The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in July to 82.0% from 82.2% in June, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was decreased to 79.5% from 79.7%. From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 363,000 in July to 4.0 million. Over the past 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has declined by 604,000.  The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in July to 3.984 million from 4.347 million in June.   The number of persons working part time for economic reason has been generally trending down, and this is the lowest level since 2006. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.0% in July. This is the lowest level for U-6 since 2000.  This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.166 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 1.414 million in June. This is the lowest level since 2007. The headline jobs number was at expectations, however the previous two months were revised down.  The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Wage growth was at expectations. Some good news is the number of people working part time for economic reasons is at the lowest level since 2006, and the number of unemployed over 26 weeks is at the lowest level since 2007. Overall this was a somewhat disappointing jobs report.   The economy added 1.156 million jobs through July 2019, down from 1.589 million jobs during the same period of 2018.   So job growth has slowed.

Mississippi reporters confront the ‘Billy Graham Rule’ - Columbia Journalism Review -- MISSISSIPPI’S REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY, just two weeks away, has been marked by a scandal over the ways female reporters are treated. On July 9, Mississippi Today politics reporter Larrison Campbell wrote that state representative Robert Foster refused to let her shadow his campaign because of her gender:  In two phone calls this week, Colton Robison, Foster’s campaign director, said a male colleague would need to accompany this reporter on an upcoming 15-hour campaign trip because they believed the optics of the candidate with a woman, even a working reporter, could be used in a smear campaign to insinuate an extramarital affair.

America’s DIY Phone Farmers --Netflix thought I was four different people. I was being paid through an app to watch its trailers over and over again, racking up digital points I could eventually trade for Amazon gift cards or real cash. But rather than just use my own phone, I bought four Android devices to churn through the trailers simultaneously, bringing in more money. I made a small "phone farm," able to fabricate engagement with advertisements and programs from companies like Netflix, as well as video game trailers, celebrity gossip shows, and sports too. No one was really watching the trailers, but Netflix didn't need to know that. The goal was to passively run these phones 24/7, with each collecting a fraction of a penny for each ad they "watched."Hobbyists and those looking to make a bit of money across the U.S. have been doing the same, buying dozens or hundreds of phones to generate revenue so they can afford some extra household goods, cover a bill, buy a case of beer, or earn more income without driving for Uber or delivering for Grubhub. The farms are similar to those found overseas, often in China, where rows and rows of phones click and scroll through social media or other apps to simulate the engagement of a real human. Every few months, a video of these Chinese farms goes viral, but in bedroom cupboards, stacks in corners of living rooms, or custom setups in their garage, American phone farmers are doing a similar thing, albeit on a smaller scale.  Motherboard spoke to eight people who run farms of various sizes, most of whom are located in the U.S.

Cops Are Giving Amazon’s Ring Your Real-Time 911 Caller Data - Amazon-owned home security company Ring is pursuing contracts with police departments that would grant it direct access to real-time emergency dispatch data, Gizmodo has learned. The California-based company is seeking police departments’ permission to tap into the computer-aided dispatch (CAD) feeds used to automate and improve decisions made by emergency dispatch personnel and cut down on police response times. Ring has requested access to the data streams so it can curate “crime news” posts for its “neighborhood watch” app, Neighbors.“In an effort to provide relevant and reliable crime and safety information to our neighbors, one important source we rely on is CAD,” the company told Gizmodo.Neighbors is an app through which users can share suspicions about alleged criminal activity in their neighborhoods. They can also post video captured by their Ring doorbell cameras, if they have one. Using Neighbors does not require a Ring device, however. An internal police email dated April 2019, obtained by Gizmodo last week via a records request, stated that more than 225 police departments have entered into partnerships with Ring. (The company has declined to confirm that, or provide the actual number.) Doing so grants the departments access to a Neighbors “law enforcement portal” through which police can request access to videos captured by Ring doorbell cameras.

Amazon Told Police It Has Partnered With 200 Law Enforcement Agencies -At least 200 law enforcement agencies around the country have entered into partnerships with Amazon’s home surveillance company Ring, according to an email obtained by Motherboard via public record request.Ring has never disclosed the exact number of partnerships that it maintains with law enforcement. However, the company has partnered with at least 200 law enforcement agencies, according to notes taken by a police officer during a Ring webinar, which he emailed to himself in April. It’s possible that the number of partnerships has changed since the day the email was sent.The officer who sent the email told Motherboard that the email was a transcribed version of handwritten notes that he took during a team webinar with a Ring representative on April 9. Additional emails obtained by Motherboard indicate that this webinar trained officers on how to use the "Law Enforcement Neighborhood Portal." This portal allows local police to see a map with the approximate locations of all Ring cameras in a neighborhood, and request footage directly from camera owners. Owners need to consent, but police do not need a warrant to ask for footage. The email obtained by Motherboard was sent from the Waynesboro, Virginia Chief of Police to himself in an email with the subject line “Neighbors by RING notes.” The email ends with the name and phone number of a Ring Neighborhood’s Training Manager, responsible for communicating with police and training them on the use of Ring products. The email is dated April 16.

  Your Arrest Was Dismissed. But It’s Still In A Police Database. When a man named J.J. was arrested in the Bronx in 2016, the public defenders assigned to represent him assumed he’d get a good plea deal. After all, it appeared to be a low-level case. J.J. had been a passenger in his friend’s car when police had pulled them over for allegedly failing to signal a turn; the officers then searched the vehicle and found an unlicensed gun inside.J.J.1, now 31, was not the owner or driver of the car, yet he was charged with gun possession, according to his attorneys. Still, he had no criminal record, which usually meant that prosecutors would offer him leniency. Instead, the Bronx District Attorney’s office insisted on prison time for J.J., which confused his lawyers until, just weeks before trial, they were handed the rest of the New York Police Department’s file on him. In it were printouts of a handful of minor nonviolent arrests he’d sustained back in the stop-and-frisk era, when police had been authorized to stop, search and sometimes baselessly arrest people who look like J.J., who is black.This story was published in collaboration with The City.But J.J. had never been convicted of any crime; his past arrests had all been dismissed or dropped. And under two New York state laws from 1976 and 1980, police are supposed to seal or destroy such records. Yet here they were—the old arrest reports, details about J.J.’s appearance, addresses where he’d lived and mugshots of him that should have been deleted—inside the government’s files, contributing to the case against him and to his eventually spending a year in jail on Rikers Island.

Video shows Dallas, Texas police joking as a 32-year-old man dies in their custody --On August 10, 2016, a 32-year-old Dallas, Texas resident Tony Timpa called 9-11 emerency services to tell the police dispatcher he suffered from mental illness and required assistance. Dallas Officers Dustin Dillard, Danny Vasquez and Kevin Mansell responded to the scene. Within twenty minutes of their arrival, he was pronounced dead by the paramedics who had transferred him from police custody into an ambulance. It would take a lawsuit filed by the victim’s family and a three-year fight to get federal courts to release the body camera records of the incident. The official police report noted that the officers used “necessary restraint” to prevent Mr. Timpa from “rolling into traffic” even though the video shows a police car blocking traffic. The autopsy report notes that cause of death was “cardiac death caused by the toxic effects of cocaine and the stress associated with physical restraint.”In stark opposition to the official report, the video obtained by the Dallas Morning News demonstrates that Timpa was in a state of panic, rolling on the grass while repeatedly screaming, “You’re gonna kill me!” The police officers rolled him onto his stomach, and officer Dillard then used both knees to place his entire weight on to the small of Timpa’s back. He was handcuffed and his legs were zip-tied together.In a few minutes, Timpa stopped speaking then soon stopped even grunting, eventually laying absolutely still and unresponsive. He lay motionless as the police continued to mock him about the upscale address found on his bracelet and his mental illness. Without once checking to see if he was doing well, they continued their slurs and dismissed his unresponsiveness as simply having fallen asleep and not wanting to wake up.The officers held Timpa on the ground for over thirteen minutes before paramedics arrived and injected him in the left upper arm with a syringe full of sedatives. When he was turned over, it became clear that he was lifeless. Officer Dillard can be heard saying, “Did he die on me? I hope I didn’t kill him.” Then another officer retorts, “What’s all this me shit?” Laughter breaks amongst all of them, and the third officer chuckles, “I love how this suddenly became a ‘we.’ ‘We’ in France. Yeah, we in France.”

AI lie detector developed for airport security - A group of researchers are quietly commercialising an artificial intelligence-driven lie detector, which they hope will be the future of airport security. Discern Science International is the start-up behind a deception detection tool named the Avatar, which features a virtual border guard that asks travellers questions. The machine, which has been tested by border services and in airports, is designed to make the screening process at border security more efficient, and to weed out people with dangerous or illegal intentions more accurately than human guards are able to do. But its development also raises questions about whether a person’s propensity to lie can be accurately measured by an algorithm. The Avatar — whose “face” appears on a screen — asks travellers a series of pre-configured questions and decides whether they are lying. It films a person’s responses, analysing information including their facial expressions, tone of voice and verbal responses, and looks for “deception signals” such as involuntary “microexpressions” that could be triggered by the cognitive stress of trying to deceive. The Avatar then makes a decision about an interviewee’s truthfulness, categorising them as green, yellow or red. In a border control scenario, those classified as green would proceed without further checks, and everyone else would be questioned by a human guard. However, doubts have been raised about the reliability of AI lie detectors, and whether what they measure is deception — which encompasses intent — or something else. Last week, a similar AI-driven lie detector, which has been piloted in the European Union, failed a test by a journalist for The Intercept when it judged a quarter of their entirely honest answers to be lies. One challenge is false positives: a machine might register as suspicious a microexpression if someone is in pain or confused. Similarly, a traditional polygraph test might register that someone is lying when they are stressed or trying hard to remember something. In the US, polygraphs are not generally admissible in court.

'A Dystopian Surveillance State Being Built in Plain Sight': Pentagon Tests Radar-Equipped Balloons to Spy on Vehicles Across Midwest - Millions of Americans across the Midwest this summer are being subjected to surveillance from above as the Pentagon experiments with the use of surveillance radars attached to high-altitude balloons. "Even in tests, they're still collecting a lot of data on Americans: who's driving to the union house, the church, the mosque, the Alzheimer's clinic. We should not go down the road of allowing this to be used in the United States."  The Guardian reported Friday, the defense and aerospace contractor Sierra Nevada Corporation was authorized by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to send up to 25 balloons across six states to track vehicles.U.S. Southern Command commissioned the project for the stated purpose of creating a "persistence surveillance system" to deter drug traffickers and perceived "homeland security threats."  Civil liberties advocates were distressed at the newly-reported project on Friday, which the Sierra Nevada Corporation obtained a license to begin on July 12 and end on September 1."The deployment of this kind of surveillance capability in the United States is incredibly alarming," Mana Azarmi, policy counsel for the Center for Democracy and Technology, told Common Dreams. "Persistent government surveillance, such as that facilitated by this technology, raises many civil liberties concerns and should not be permitted in the absence of a warrant.""Mass surveillance doesn't make us safer," the digital rights group Fight for the Future tweeted.Programs like the Pentagon's balloon experiment "pose a grave threat to basic human rights, freedom of expression, and civil liberties," Fight for the Future Deputy Director Evan Greer told Common Dreams. "These programs are not about stopping violence, they're about social control."The balloons are being sent from South Dakota through portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Their high-tech radars are able to simultaneously track many vehicles at once "on a 25-mile swath beneath the balloon," according to The Guardian.

Satellites Have Already Started Watching Your Every Movement -  There are “real-time” spies in the skies.  Satellites have already begun watching your every move as mass surveillance becomes a horror story reality, especially for liberty-loving humans. According to CNET, the dramatic advances in satellite imaging technology in the last 10 years have privacy advocates worried about the 24-hour surveillance. Satellite companies claim that they keep a person’s data separate from any identifying characteristics, but Peter Martinez of the Secure World Foundation is one of those still concerned about the constant monitoring of people.“The risks arise not only from the satellite images themselves but the fusion of Earth observation data with other sources of data,” Martinez said in an email.The problem is the sheer volume of satellites overhead. Imaging company Planet Labs confirmed that it has 140 imaging satellites currently in orbit. The report says this is enough to pass over every place on Earth once a day. And those who own the satellites say not to worry. “Even with Planet’s highest resolution imagery (1m resolution), it remains impossible to distinguish individual people, car number plates, or otherwise identifying information. Our imagery is ideal for monitoring large-scale change on a daily basis. This includes seeing daily change across buildings and roads, forests, in agriculture, bodies of water and more,” a spokesperson for Planet Labs said in an email. Technology is growing at a rapid pace, and with it grows governments’ surveillance capabilities. Although many are aware that they are being monitored and tracked by those who claim to own us, some don’t know just how bad it has become. Everyone wants some form of privacy, however, the world we live in doesn’t offer much.

Siri Regularly Listens In On Your Sexual Encounters, Apple Insists Only For A Few Seconds - Should it come as any surprise? And yet the details are shocking and outrageous. A whistleblower working for Apple has revealed to The Guardian that its popular voice activated spying device helpful virtual assistant Siri, now in millions of households, "regularly" records people having sex, and captures other "countless" invasive moments which it promptly sends to Apple contractors for their listening pleasure "quality control": Apple contractors regularly hear confidential medical information, drug deals, and recordings of couples having sex, as part of their job providing quality control, or “grading”, the company’s Siri voice assistant, the Guardian has learned. We've long pointed out that according to Amazon's Alexa terms of use, the company collects and stores most of what you say to Alexa (or perhaps what you groan) - including the geolocation of the product along with your voice instructions.  However, what's not disclosed or at least not well known up to this point is that a "small proportion" of all Siri recordings of what consumers thought were private settings are actually forwarded to Apple contractors around the world, according to the new report. Supposedly this is to ensure Siri is responding properly and can continue to distinguish dictation. Apple says, according to The Guardian, the data “is used to help Siri and dictation… understand you better and recognise what you say”. But an anonymous current company insider and whistleblower told The Guardian: “There have been countless instances of recordings featuring private discussions between doctors and patients, business deals, seemingly criminal dealings, sexual encounters and so on. These recordings are accompanied by user data showing location, contact details, and app data.”

Ohio Woman, 79, Sentenced to Jail for Feeding Stray Cats - "It began in 2017 with me feeding stray kitties. I used to have a neighbor that had a couple cats and he moved away so he left them,"  A 79-year-old Ohio woman is facing jail time all for her love of cats. Nancy Segula has been feeding the local stray cats for years but while the famished felines are big fans of the elderly woman’s passion for them, Segula’s neighbors are not.Now after three years of warnings, citations and complaints, the Garfield Heights pensioner is facing jail time. Segula is expected to report to the county jail on Aug. 11 at 9 a.m. to serve 10 days behind bars.Explaining why she has risked so much for the cats in her area, Segula told Fox 8 Cleveland it was simple — “I’m a cat lover.”“I used to have a neighbor that had a couple cats and he moved away, so he left them,” she told the news station. “I would always feed them and care for them because I was worried about them and I’m a cat lover. Once my neighbors got upset about it, they called the animal warden.”She told Cleveland.com that the cats have helped her cope with the death of her husband. “I miss my own kitties, they passed away, my husband passed away. I’m lonely. So the cats and kitties outside help me.”Segula’s son Dave Pawlowski has argued that the punishment is too harsh.“I couldn’t believe what my mother was telling me. She gets 10 days in the county jail, I couldn’t believe it,” he told Fox 8. “I’m sure people hear about the things that happen downtown in that jail. And they are going to let my 79-year-old mother go there?”

America's Gone Crazy- 79-Year-Old Woman Jailed For Feeding Stray Cats -- In order for any society to function smoothly, the vast majority of the people need to behave at least somewhat rationally.  Of course there are always going to be exceptions, and we understand that, but most of us operate under the assumption that most of the people that we are going to encounter in our daily lives are not going to act like nutjobs.  Unfortunately, that may not be a safe assumption any longer.  As our society literally degenerates right in front of our eyes, it seems like someone has opened up the barn doors and let out all the crazies. And the truth is that “our leaders” are some of the best examples of this phenomenon.   All across this country, it seems like people in positions of power can’t think straight any longer. If you doubt this, just consider what just happened to a 79-year-old woman in Ohio named Nancy Segula.  When her neighbor moved away, he left a couple cats behind, and they became very hungry.  So Segula would feed them and care for them, because she didn’t want them to suffer.  Well, eventually one of her neighbors found out about this, and the animal warden was called…“It began in 2017 with me feeding stray kitties. I used to have a neighbor that had a couple cats and he moved away so he left them,” Segula said. “I would always feed them and care for them because I was worried about them and I’m a cat lover. Once my neighbors got upset about it, they called the animal warden.”She got her first citation in 2017. Segula wasn’t about to abandon the suffering cats, and so she just kept on feeding them, and the neighbors kept calling the animal warden. Over time, she received a total of four citations. Unfortunately, the most recent citation required her to appear in court, and when she did a judge sentenced her to 10 days in jail… Her latest citation required her to appear before Magistrate Jeffrey Short last week. He sentenced her to 10 days in the Cuyahoga County Jail. “I couldn’t believe what my mother was telling me. She gets 10 days in the county jail, I couldn’t believe it,” said Dave Pawlowski, her son son. “I’m sure people hear about the things that happen downtown in that jail. And they are going to let my 79-year-old mother go there?”

Solitary Confinement Caused “Complete Mental and Physical Collapse” of Man in Virginia Prison, Lawsuit Contends - A potentially far-reaching federal lawsuit filed last week claims that a vulnerable young man was so ravaged by his 600 days in solitary confinement at Virginia’s notorious Red Onion prison that he lost the ability to speak coherently, recognize his own mother, or understand who or where he was. The suit names as defendants not only the state corrections department and prison wardens, but also the mental health care professionals who were aware of his deterioration and allowed the torment to continue.The lawsuit was filed on July 11 in federal district court in Richmond by the MacArthur Justice Center, on behalf of Tyquine Lee. Now 26, Lee has suffered from psychological and cognitive disabilities since he was a child. He has been classified by the government as “disabled” since age eight, and by age ten he had been hospitalized four times for “behavior associated with his mental illness.” Lee’s lawyers say that his documented mental health history, which should have been known to the facility, clearly made him especially vulnerable to the harmful effects of isolation. They further argue that any legitimate and Constitutionally sufficient review during Lee’s nearly two years in solitary would have recognized that he could be managed in far less restrictive—and damaging—conditions.In solitary, Lee quickly lost the ability to manage the most basic physical self care: His body was filthy, his teeth were decaying, and he lost thirty pounds. His mental health unraveled even more dramatically. According to the complaint, after his first two months in isolation, Lee lost basic cognitive functioning. His speech c onsisted of “an unintelligible string of numbers and nonsense words,” and he was unable to sign his name. In the months that followed, when Lee’s family traveled up to eight hours to visit him, he was not able to recognize his mother and would “bark like a dog” to communicate. “Before solitary, we spoke every other day,” said Lee’s mother, Takeisha Brown. “In solitary, he couldn’t speak except in numbers and gibberish. He couldn’t remember his own birthday.”

‘Sick’: Black rag dolls made to ‘slam into walls’ pulled from shelves over racism complaints (PHOTO) - A ‘disturbing’ black rag doll designed to make kids ‘feel better’ by slamming it against a wall to vent their anger has been pulled from New Jersey stores after outcry. The ‘Feel Better Doll’ is a black smiling rag doll with multi-colored hair styled like dreadlocks, and bears instructions to “slam” the stuffed toy “whenever things don’t go well and you want to hit the wall and yell.” The dolls were pulled from three retailers in New Jersey, including one in Bayonne that withdrew about 1,000 dolls after complaints from local legislator Angela McKnight. 

12-Year-Old New York Girl Arrested For Spray-Painting Swastikas Around Town - Police in Ontario County, which is situated near the finger lakes in western New York State, have arrested a 12-year old girl for spray painting swastikas on a local church and on the sides of buildings, NBC New York reports.Possibly setting a record for the youngest person to be arrested for hate crimes (the 12-year-old is facing criminal charges...despite being 12 years old). There's no word as to whether her parents are facing any kind of punishment. However, the Ontario County police assured the media that the child is being charges with criminal mischief as a juvenile, and that the case would be handled in family court.Last week, authorities found a swastika on Mt. Calvary Church in Geneva, a town located about an hour's drive southeast of Rochester. Soon after, more swastikas began to appear, on garage doors and on a local armory.Phrases like "white power" were also spray painted on garage doors. Police say the young girl acted alone.Crazily enough, this isn't the first incident this year of a young child committing a heinous hate crime. The Washington Post reported on an incident in New Jersey where a 13-year-old boy assault a classmate and the classmate's mother after taunting them to "go back behind the wall" (the two victims were Mexican). The mother, Beronica Ruiz, suffered serious injuries and was hospitalized for two days after the attack. The assailant in this attack is facing one count each of aggravated assault and simple assault. He has been released to his parents, and the case is being handled in family court.

California’s Early Childhood Education System Needs to Check Its Math  --Just in time for Governor Gavin Newsom’s $1.8 billion down payment on an early childhood education program for California, a new study blasts the state for subsidizing childcare on the backs of underpaid workers. The Economic Policy Institute and UC Berkeley’s Center for Childcare Employment report estimates the actual annual cost of a fully phased-in early ed system to be in the range of $29.7 billion to $75.4 billion (or $30,000 to $37,000 per child). “This isn’t a no-sum game,” UCLA education professor Megan Franke, an early learning specialist not involved in the study, told Learning Curves. “Quality care being available for families really matters, but it won’t matter if the care we provide isn’t meeting the needs of young people.” Researchers identified low provider pay and low quality care as endemic to California’s patchwork childcare industry and as a misguided effort to keep care affordable. Childcare providers, many of whom are home-based women of color, are twice as likely as other California workers to fall below the poverty line. But poor working conditions ultimately harm children in a field where high pay and experience correlates to better care and achievement outcomes for kids. “Money spent supporting the folks doing the work in early childhood settings is also good for the young people. We need to not only pay them, we need to support them with resources to enable them to do their job,” Franke emphasized. The potential damage to California’s once peerless public research universities by a “yellow peril” campaign launched by the Trump administration is the subject of a story this week by L.A. Times’ reporters Teresa Watanabe and Don Lee. A steady drumbeat of China bashing over the past year and a half by the administration, along with tightened restrictions on collaborations with China and Chinese companies, and accusations of spying, have stirred up a climate of anti-Asian racism on U.S. research campuses. Last Thursday the UC Board of Regents approved a systemwide audit to identify “foreign influence” risks. And with major UC research campuses already reporting that federal scrutiny of Chinese and Chinese-American students and professors has resulted in visa delays, the fear is that the ethnically focused crackdown will result in an exodus of world-class Chinese intellectual talent, along with federal research dollars, which could have crippling, long-term repercussions for the Golden State’s — and the nation’s — leadership in high-tech innovation.

 It's time to fix our nation's public-school buildings - More than 50 million children and 6 million adults — one in six Americans — set foot in a school each weekday. Schools are not only where our children are educated, they are the heart of our communities — hosting countless community events every week; serving as emergency shelters; and where meals, aftercare and health care are provided to millions of children. Our nation’s public schools are the second largest national infrastructure sector for capital investment. Yet, historically, unlike roads and bridges, school facilities have received virtually no federal investment. The result? Our school buildings are in as bad or worse shape as our roads and bridges. Nearly half of the nation’s schools are 50 years old. At best, they lack the technological updates required to meet 21st-century educational needs. At worst, they expose our students, teachers and staff to mold, lead and asbestos. The American Society of Civil Engineers has given the condition of our nation’s schools a D+. One-third of our nation’s school buildings require updates or replacement. Not surprisingly, the schools in the worst condition are concentrated in lower-wealth communities, particularly in our rural and inner-city areas. As leaders of national associations representing principals and parents, we have seen firsthand and heard many stories of the deplorable conditions inside some of our nation’s school buildings. These inequities cannot be addressed without federal support. After a thorough analysis of spending on maintenance, operations and facilities replacement, the 21st Century School Fund and its partners concluded in their State of Our Schools report that lower-wealth jurisdictions cannot afford to meet the growing financial need on their own. Local jurisdictions — with some state help but essentially no federal contribution — have invested an average of $99 billion annually. As a result, local school districts now carry $434 billion — that’s billions — of debt. But they’re still at least $46 billion short of the annual investments needed to maintain and modernize the infrastructure they currently have.

California’s largest teachers union spent $1 million a month to restrict charter schools -The state’s biggest teachers union spent more than $1 million a month since April to influence lawmakers as it pushed bills aimed at cracking down on charter schools, financial disclosure forms filed ahead of a Wednesday deadline show.The California Teachers Association has spent a total $4.3 million on lobbying this year, the most of all groups employing lobbyists at the state Capitol. That’s about as much as the union spent during the entire two-year legislative session from 2017-2018, when it was the 10th biggest spender.The bulk of this year’s total comes from April through June, when CTA spent $3.6 million lobbying on bills including a legislative package that would dismantle charter school power in California.The teachers’ top priority bills were aimed at holding charter schools accountable, spokeswoman Claudia Briggs said.The first, Assembly Bill 1505, would hand greater charter authorization and oversight to local districts and county offices. The second, Assembly Bill 1507, would limit a charter school to operating within the boundaries of its authorizing body. The Assembly proposals are the last two standing from a bundle of bills introduced this year to restrict charter school growth across California.Another Assembly effort to cap the number of charter schools in California and a Senate attempt to place a moratorium on new charters until 2022 never made it out of their respective chambers. In addition to employing lobbyists at the Capitol, the group also bought television and radio ads promoting the bills, Briggs said. “All of this is to ensure that all students have a quality school and a quality education,” she said.

High Profile Labor Leader Has a New Gig Fighting Against Teacher’s Unions - Andy Stern spent 14 years as the head of the SEIU, America’s most politically active labor union. He was perhaps the most visible union leader in America. And what is he doing now? He’s lending his name to a billionaire-funded astroturf group that aims to quash the power of teacher’s unions. When Stern left the SEIU in 2010, he was a true political power player—his official bio, in fact, brags that “Stern has visited the White House more frequently than any other single person during the Obama Administration.” Under his leadership, his union dramatically grew its membership and helped Barack Obama get elected. But his successes came at a cost. Stern developed a reputation as a business-friendly union leader, known for striking deals with companies that were often seen as too weak by many in the labor movement.  The Nation quoted one union leader as saying, “Andy Stern leaves pretty much without a friend in the labor movement.” The most prominent and powerful American labor actions of the past year were the teacher’s strikes that swept the nation, from West Virginia to California. Public school teachers have, more than anyone, been the most visible engine of recent union militancy. And as all of that was happening, here is what Andy Stern did: in April of this year, he was announced as an official adviser of the National Parents Union, an education reform group with deep ties to the Walton Foundation, the charitable arm of the family of Walmart heirs, the single richest family in America. (Charter schools are a major focus of the Walton Foundation.)   Stern is lending his union-world credibility to a group that says this in its organizing document: “In the same manner that teacher strikes and mobilization are commanding headlines, we have a vision of having parent rallies and mobilizations in the spotlight, redirecting the conversation from one about adults to one about students. The teacher unions currently have no countervailing force. We envision the National Parents Union as being able to take on the unions in the national and regional media, and eventually on the ground in advocacy fights.” In other words, the former head of one of America’s most politically active unions is using his resume in organized labor to support a group that explicitly aims to undermine teacher’s unions—at a time when teacher’s unions have done more to revive militancy in organized labor than any other group.

 Wealthy parents give up custody of kids to get need-based college aid --Dozens of suburban Chicago families, perhaps many more, have been exploiting a legal loophole to win their children need-based college financial aid and scholarships they would not otherwise receive, court records and interviews show.  Coming months after the national "Varsity Blues" college admissions scandal, this tactic also appears to involve families attempting to gain an advantage in an increasingly competitive and expensive college admissions system.  Parents are giving up legal custody of their children during their junior or senior year in high school to someone else -- a friend, aunt, cousin or grandparent. The guardianship status then allows the students to declare themselves financially independent of their families so they can qualify for federal, state and university aid, a ProPublica Illinois investigation found.  "It's a scam," said Andy Borst, director of undergraduate admissions at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "Wealthy families are manipulating the financial aid process to be eligible for financial aid they would not be otherwise eligible for. They are taking away opportunities from families that really need it."

 Alaska defunds scholarships for thousands of university students ahead of fall semester - Sian Gonzales found out he would no longer be receiving the almost $5,000 he has been awarded annually from the Alaska Performance Scholarship (APS) on July 9 — a month and a half shy of the first day of classes for his junior year at the University of Alaska Anchorage. Gonzales, 21, didn’t lose the scholarship money because his grades slipped or because he violated any school rules; instead, Gonzales and 2,500 other students in Alaska lost the scholarship because the state is no longer funding it. “I’m scared,” Gonzales, a nursing student, told NBC News. Raised in Juneau, Gonzales decided to stay in Alaska for college in large part because of the APS, and even worked toward earning the scholarship during high school. “Alaska is in dire need of nurses. After I graduate, I want to use my skills to help my people here in Alaska. I want to stay in Alaska” Gonzales said. And that's exactly what the APS was created to do. The APS began awarding students money in 2012 to encourage bright high school seniors to stay in their home state for higher education and prevent a brain drain. The program has specific qualifications for students to be eligible, and some students, like Gonzales, spend their high school years taking certain classes, maintaining a high GPA, and studying to get good SAT or ACT scores in order to qualify. Gonzales is in Level 1, which means he gets $4,755 per year from the APS. The state also offered two other levels of the scholarship worth either $3,566 and $2,378 per year. Now, that’s gone, and he’s left wondering how to fill the significant financial gap in such a short amount of time.

The Dying Art of Instruction in the Digital Classroom -Is it possible to lose a foundation stone of one’s culture without even having identified it as such? This year will be my last year teaching at the university; I’ve decided to throw in the towel three years before retirement age. There are a number of reasons behind this decision, but one is definitely the changed situation in the classroom. Even at post-graduate level, it is getting more and more difficult to feel that one has the attention of students or that something really useful is happening during the lessons.Of course, teachers have been reporting a loss of control in school classrooms for decades. I remember in the early 1970s a high school teacher working in a poor area of Boston telling me she might as well simply turn the radio on as loud as possible and spend her lessons listening to music. Friends in Milan today, teaching at the so-called scuole professionali, report similar experiences: the near impossibility of making oneself heard, the need to resort to more and more aggressive tactics to focus the minds of the pupils, many of whom simply don’t want to be there and can’t see the point. Having youth unemployment at high levels for so long in Italy hardly helps.Nevertheless, it was always assumed that such problems were specific to certain social situations or conditions of economic deprivation, that there would always be “good schools,” where “bright children” motivated by “attentive parents” behaved with respect and diligence and hence made useful progress. It seemed that if you had “well brought-up” youngsters and “serious teachers,” the formula of traditional teaching would go on working forever. Then came the computer, the Internet, and, crucially, the smartphone.The combination of computer use, Internet, and smart phone, I would argue, has changed the cognitive skills required of individuals. Learning is more and more a matter of mastering various arbitrary software procedures that then allow information to be accessed and complex operations to be performed without our needing to understand what is entailed in those operations. This activity is then carried on in an environment where it is quite normal to perform two, three, or even four operations at the same time, with a general and constant confusion of the social, the academic, and the occupational.

Facebook is funding brain experiments to create a device that reads your mind - In 2017, Facebook announced that it wanted to create a headband that would let people type at a speed of 100 words per minute, just by thinking.Now, a little over two years later, the social-media giant is revealing that it has been financing extensive university research on human volunteers.Today, some of that research was described in a scientific paper from the University of California, San Francisco, where researchers have been developing “speech decoders” able to determine what people are trying to say by analyzing their brain signals. The research is important because it could help show whether a wearable brain-control device is feasible and because it is an early example of a giant tech company being involved in getting hold of data directly from people’s minds. To some neuro-ethicists, that means we are going to need some rules, and fast, about how brain data is collected, stored, and used.

Sen. Ted Cruz- Universities Are Trying Hard To Raise A Generation Of Pansies --Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz bashed universities in a Thursday speech, saying that America’s colleges are raising a “generation of pansies” and doing a disservice to students by shielding them from “scary ideas.” Cruz let loose on academia at Young America’s Foundation National Conservative Student Conference, telling the crowd “if you are a university administrator, the ideas that are represented in this room are terrifying.”“There are no ‘safe spaces’ in this room,” he added. During the question and answer session, one Binghamton University student shared with Cruz his experience of having to employ trigger warnings during college debate competitions, as well as everyone having to share their preferred gender pronouns before a competition and “gender minority” female-only debate tournaments.“We’re all gonna die,” Cruz said jokingly, before taking a more serious jab at the practice of “trigger warnings” in general.“Look, one of the saddest things we’re seeing is our colleges and universities are trying really hard to raise a generation of pansies,” Cruz said. WATCH: “What is this sense that you have a right not to be offended? You have a right not to hear ideas that are scary? Look, the entire purpose of university is to hear ideas that are scary,” the senator continued. Cruz argued that when he was in university, he had to hear plenty of scary ideas, including those of Marxism.   “When I went to college, when I went to law school, I was surrounded by leftists. I took classes from Marxists. And by the way, I don’t find Marxism just sort of cute and chic,” Cruz said, noting that someone on his hall had a Che Guevara poster and that Cruz sarcastically recommended posters of other “evil, torturing, murderous sons of b*tches,” including Mao Zedong, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin.

America’s $70,000 A Year Liberal Arts Colleges Are Like Headless Zombies That Just Won't Die -- Small liberal arts colleges in the U.S. simply refuse to die, despite a torrent of bad news about the U.S. higher education marketplace and the increasing uselessness of their degrees.  Bennington College in Vermont is one such example, according to Bloomberg. It sports famous alumni like Donna Tartt and Bret Easton Ellis and charges $73,000 per year for admission. Located at the foot of Vermont's green mountains, it nearly went out of business in the 1990's and was still under duress at the beginning of this decade.  But the school - and its 700 undergraduates - have hung on. It's a microcosm of how these types of schools continue to defy the odds nationwide.  Massachusetts’ Hampshire College was another institution known for its artisiness than has somehow still hung on. David Bergeron, a former deputy assistant secretary in the U.S. Department of Education who specialized in higher education said:  “They’ve survived because they’ve been able to exploit what they’re good at, and that has enabled them to continue to attract students and retain faculty. The threat of closure has brought a new level of energy.”  The environment of pressure on these colleges has been helped along by the $1.6 trillion in student loans outstanding, discouraging many from even attending colleges at all. The hot-button issue is surely going to be center stage for the 2020 Presidential race and the number of high school graduates is also declining, especially in the Northeast and Midwest.   Meanwhile, immigration restrictions have slowed down the supply of tuition paying students from places like China. Last year, about 33% of colleges saw a decline in revenue from tuition, up 15% from five years ago. The Council of Independent Colleges now estimates that 2% of its roughly 650 members are "struggling financially." About 12 of these colleges have closed or merged in the last 4 years, including Vermont's Marlboro College and the University of Bridgeport in Connecticut, who have agreed to merge.  But the U.S. Department of Education says there is about 750 colleges with 1,000 or fewer students, compared with about 790 a decade ago, which is hardly a major falloff. Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen had predicted that half of all U.S. colleges would go bankrupt in 15 years back in 2013, when online colleges were starting to take off. 

Here Are The Cities With The Most Student Debt  - LendingTree has revealed a new study that identifies certain US metropolitan areas with the highest student loan balances.  The study's release comes at a time when total student loan debt has reached $1.6 trillion, set to unravel in the next economic downturn. The study gives an eye-opener to the cities where millennials will suffer the most significant financial distress when the crisis unfolds. About 70% of the cities and surrounding areas with the highest median loan balances are located in the South, including large balances in Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, and the Carolinas. These areas are known for widespread deindustrialization, high opioid addiction, and weak economic activity.  LendingTree's map shows high concentrations of student loan balances in the South, Rust Belt, and Mid-Alantic.  Borrowers in Washington, DC, carry the most student debt median balance of $29,314. And about 15% of those borrowers owe more than six figures, the highest percentage among the 100 metros surveyed. Atlanta and Charleston, SC, have the second and third highest balances, averaging both around $28,000.

Women In The United States Are Having Fewer Babies Than Ever Before In History  - According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the fertility rate in the United States has never been lower than it is right now. Unlike some of our other problems, this is not an immediate crisis because we definitely have plenty of people.  The population of the U.S. is currently well over 300 million, and more immigrants keep pouring in with each passing day.  So we are in no danger of running out of people, but the fact that Americans are choosing to have so few babies is yet another symptom of the social decay that is eating away at our nation like cancer. From a very early age, young Americans are being trained not to value marriage, parenthood and the traditional family unit. As a result, we are on an extremely self-destructive path, and there is no way that we are going to have a positive future as a country unless we change course. The fertility rate in the U.S. has been in decline for many years, and just when you thought that it couldn’t possibly go any lower, it did… The general fertility rate in the United States continued to decline last year, according to a new report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. “The 2018 general fertility rate fell to another all-time low for the United States,” the researchers wrote in the report, published Wednesday.

‘People are Dying’: Bernie Sanders Heads to Canada With an Insulin Caravan - Presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders is heading to Canada on Sunday with a caravan of Type 1 diabetes patients seeking cheaper insulin to highlight the “corruption” of pharmaceutical companies and the toll taken on Americans who can’t afford the medicine. CTV News reported:  Sanders stood next to a mother who said she spends roughly US $1,500 a month for insulin for her son. But in Windsor, she paid US $1,000 for a six-month supply.  A vial of insulin which Type 1 diabetics use to regulate their blood sugar costs about US $340 in the United States — roughly 10 times the Canadian price. An American Diabetes Association spokesperson previously told CTVNews.ca the average price of insulin has nearly tripled between 2002 and 2013. “People are dying,” Sanders earlier told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union,” in an interview hosted from Detroit, Michigan.  He said the cost of insulin in the US has “soared in recent years” and “there is strong evidence that there is price fixing, that these companies simultaneously raise the prices at outrageous levels far, far, far more than the cost of production.”  He accused drug company executives of “corruption” and “unbelievable greed.” In Canada, he said, insulin is “one-tenth of the price.” “One out of four people are rationing their insulin, and people are dying. That is unacceptable in the United States of America,” he claims. Sanders said if elected president, “we’re going to take on the pharmaceutical industry, we’re going to have an attorney general who is going to deal with the incredible concentration of ownership and we’re going to use anti-trust legislation.”

Hospitals Squeal Like Stuck Pigs Over Trump Proposal to Force Disclosure of Insurance Company Discounts --Yves Smith --In one of his intermittent gestures of concern for ordinary people, Trump made what ought to be a modest proposal: to require hospitals to disclose the discounted prices they have negotiated various insurers. Hospital industry spokescritters reacted as if Trump was planning to throw their children in a vat of boiling oil.The vehemence of the hospitals’ response, along with the ludicrous claims made, seems surprising given how toothless the Trump proposal is. Hospitals that don’t play ball would be fined up to $300 a day. Yes, you read that correctly. $300 a day, maximum.However, as we’ll discuss, even a weak proposal like this could have significant impact if even a few hospitals were to accede to the Administration’s wishes. First, a brief overview of the Trump plan, courtesy the Wall Street Journal: Hospitals would have to disclose the discounted prices they negotiate with insurance companies under a Trump administration rule that could upend the $1 trillion hospital industry by revealing rates long guarded as trade secrets. Hospitals that fail to share the discounted prices in an online form could be fined up to $300 a day, according to a rule proposed in the Federal Register. The price-disclosure requirements would cover all the more than 6,000 hospitals that accept Medicare. Hospitals would have to disclose the rates for services and treatment that they have negotiated with individual insurance companies such as Aetna Inc., Cigna Corp. and Anthem Inc. under the proposal released Monday. The Trump administration is also working on initiatives that could compel insurers to disclose their rates, part of a push to publicize costs that is likely to spur lawsuits and sharp resistance from the industry. An additional element, per CNBC: As part of the proposal, the administration would require hospitals to publish insurer-specific prices for at least 300 “shoppable services” consumers might consider beforehand, such as X-rays or lab tests.We have to stop and note that the Journal dignifies the laughable industry assertion that negotiated prices constitute a trade secret. A trade secret is intellectual property developed by the producer that is so important to its competitive standing that disclosure would amount to irreparable harm. Classic examples of a trade secret are the formula for Coca Cola and the designs for chips. The claim that a mere figure that was the result of a negotiation between two parties could ever be deemed to be a trade secret is ludicrous.

Little-known makers of generic drugs played central role in opioid crisis, records show -WaPo - Douglas S. Boothe was the leader of a little-known generic-drug maker seven years ago when federal agents approached his company with an urgent plea: Slash production of an addictive pain medication that was fueling a national crisis. Boothe “wasn’t interested” and rejected the Drug Enforcement Administration’s request that Actavis voluntarily cut its supply of oxycodone to U.S. pharmacies, according to exhibits unsealed recently in a landmark lawsuit that accuses drug companies of recklessly distributing billions of addictive pain pills despite glaring signs of abuse. Now, Boothe is among a crop of figures from the generic-drug industry — from high-ranking executives to salesmen to account managers — whose decisions during the height of the country’s opioid epidemic have been thrust into the national spotlight after the release of the documents. Drugmaker Purdue Pharma and its owners, the Sackler family, have for years borne the brunt of public criticism for inventing and deceptively marketing one of the most well-known opioid painkillers, OxyContin, in the 1990s. But the records show that by 2006, as the death rate accelerated, a handful of obscure generic-drug manufacturers were selling the bulk of opioid pills flooding the country. The documents and a DEA database that tracks every opioid pill sold in the United States from 2006 through 2012 are being made public a year after The Washington Post and the owner of the Charleston Gazette-Mail in West Virginia began pushing for their release. The database provides a road map of accountability for these sales. It attributes the vast majority of the 76 billion opioid pills produced and shipped from 2006 through 2012 to three companies that are now controlled by large multinational drugmakers: SpecGx, a subsidiary of Ireland-based Mallinckrodt; Par Pharmaceutical, owned by Endo Pharmaceuticals, also in Ireland; and Actavis, part of Israel-based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries.

28% of Delivery Drivers Have Tasted Your Food, Survey Finds - About 21% of delivery customers worry the driver may have nibbled their order en route—and with good reason, according to a new study of delivery gripes. Some 28% of drivers say they were unable to resist taking a bite.  The study, conducted by distributor US Foods, brings to light a number of concerns about the service that’s transforming the restaurant business.  The head-turning growth may not be as friction free as casual observers might think, according to the survey of both consumers and drivers. The report shows that a significant portion (17%) of consumers who use a third-party delivery service have a gripe about the hotness of the food when it arrives, the top complaint unearthed by the research. Close behind (at 16%) is the order arriving late, with respondents citing an average of 40 minutes as the outer limit of a tolerable wait. Incorrect orders and neglected special requests were tied at No. 3. Overall, the research uncovered a wariness on the part of consumers about the drivers who cart their meals. More than 4 out of 5 (85%) said they would like restaurants to adopt tamper-proof packaging.The consumer respondents were given a hypothetical situation: “If you ordered a burger and fries, and the deliverer grabbed a few fries along the way, how upset would you be?” On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being an attitude of “no big deal” and 10 representing “absolutely unacceptable,” the average score was 8.4. They also readily cited service snafus. Thirty-four percent of respondents said they’d experienced a driver refusing to leave his or her car to hand over the meal. Twenty-nine percent said a driver refused to walk all the way to their door for the delivery. Nearly 1 in 5 (17%) reported that a driver had dropped the food at the door and left, without any interaction.

Should the Rich Be Allowed to Buy the Best Genes? --  I’m at a conference in Quebec City on CRISPR, the molecular tool designed to edit genes, and it has the same vibe as the meetings of the Homebrew Computer Club and the West Coast Computer Faire did in the 1970s, except that the hip young innovators are programming with genetic code rather than computer code.   Many of the star pioneers are here, including Berkeley’s Jennifer Doudna, who in 2012 co-discovered how to combine two snippets of RNA with an enzyme to make a programmable scissors that could cut DNA at a precise location, and Feng Zhang of the Broad Institute, who raced her to show how the tool could edit genes in humans and is now in a battle with her for patents to the technology.  There is general agreement among the scientists at dinner that, when it’s safe and practical, heritable edits ought to be used to fix bad single-gene mutations, such as Huntington’s disease and sickle-cell anemia. But they recoil at the idea of using gene editing for human enhancements, such as trying to give our kids more muscle mass, or height, or perhaps someday higher I.Q.’s and cognitive skills. The problem is that the distinction is difficult to define—is preventing obesity a cure or enhancement? —and even more difficult to enforce. “Look at what parents are willing to do to get kids in college,” Feng Zhang says. “Some people will surely pay for genetic enhancement.” “A big problem with enhancement is equal access,” “Should rich people be allowed to buy the best genes they can afford?” That could lead to the dystopia described in Aldous Huxley’s 1932 novel Brave New World, in which the modification of embryos produces a caste system ranging from intelligence-enhanced leaders to stunted menial laborers. Our world is already suffering from widening gaps in wealth and opportunity, and a free market for genetic enhancements could produce a quantum leap in these inequalities and also, literally, encode them permanently. “In a world in which there are people who don’t get access to eyeglasses,” Feng Zhang says, “it’s hard to imagine how we will find a way to have equal access to gene enhancements. Think of what that will do to our species.”

 Families seek answers for US rise in childhood cancers -  Right up to his death from acute myeloid leukemia in June 2015 at the age of 12, Oliver Strong was a standout athlete and goalkeeper, a healthy, vibrant and popular boy with a zest for living that inspired his teammates, friends and family. So when Oliver died suddenly at a Miami children’s hospital, just 36 hours after doctors first diagnosed the disease, his parents Simon and Vilma started looking for answers. What they found was disturbing. Cases of pediatric cancer in the United States surged by almost 50% from 1975 to 2015, according to alarming but under-reported statistics by the National Cancer Institute, and in 2018 up to 16,000 children from birth to age 19 will have received a new diagnosis. Yet what really elevated the disquiet of Oliver’s parents was increasing concern over the role that carcinogenic environmental toxicants, including industrial waste and pollutants, were believed to be playing in the rise of childhood cancer. “There’s almost an unspoken scientific consensus that it’s always environmental,” said Simon Strong, who with his wife set up Oliver Forever Strong – a foundation in their son’s memory. Oliver’s Forever Strong has now teamed up for an ambitious research study with scientists at the Texas Children’s Hospital, home to the nation’s largest pediatric cancer center, and the Baylor College of Medicine. Dr Michael Scheurer, director of the childhood cancer epidemiology and prevention program at Texas Children’s Hospital, said: “[This research] … will allow families who might not live near one of the existing study centers to participate as they are comfortable. “We realize individuals won’t know if they’ve been exposed to a certain chemical or specific agent so we try to gather an overview of their environment, where have they lived over the course of time, when the child was conceived, during mom’s pregnancy, during early childhood, up to the point they developed their cancer. Are those residences located near Superfund sites, or in areas with high levels of air pollution or water contaminants? “In the end, if we see that several kinds of cancers share some risk factors that’s important information, but we want to start with a very homogeneous group of cancers and start looking into these patients first. Signposts will pop up along the way.”

How a 6,000-Year-Old Dog Cancer Spread Around the World - HIGH IN THE Himalayas, a heavy-coated dog trots behind the hem of a Buddhist monk’s robes. On the streets of Panama City, another dog collapses into a sliver of shade, escaping the heat of the midday sun. On their bodies a cancer grows. Their tumors each appear unique—their swollen, crumbling contours flush with fresh blood vessels emerging from beneath a tail here or between the legs there. But the cells dividing inside each one, continents apart, are actually the same organism. If you can call a clump of 6,000-year-old cancer cells an organism.  These ancient cells were once part of a dog that roamed the frozen Siberian steppe, a husky-like creature that lived in the time before humans invented the wheel or the plow. Then they mutated, finding a way to evade the canine immune system, a way to outlive their body by finding another. This cancer-cum-sexually transmitted dog parasite still thrives today, the only remnant of that now-extinct Siberian dog race. For millennia, it has been jumping between bodies, spreading like a virus around the world. Canine transmissible venereal tumor, or CTVT, is now found in modern dogs from Malawi to Melbourne to Minneapolis. It’s the longest-lived cancer known to humans. But until now, no one had looked deeply into its DNA to trace its evolutionary origins and discover the secrets of its viral success.  For the past decade and a half, veterinarians from nearly every country on the planet have been gathering the material to do that—shaving off slices of these tumors as they’ve come across them, sealing them up in test tubes, and shipping them off to the laboratory of Elizabeth Murchison at the University of Cambridge, in the UK. Murchison is perhaps better known for her workinvestigating a different contagious cancer that nearly crashed the world’s population of Tasmanian devils.   For a cancer to become contagious, it has to clear two serious barriers. First, the cancer cells themselves have to find a way to physically get from one individual to another. (This is different, to be clear, from infectious pathogens which can cause cancers, like HPV.) And second, the cells have to be able to evade the immune system of the new host once they get there. Tasmanian devils pass their cancer around through the violent face-biting that typifies their fierce mating rituals. Dogs spread theirs through sexual contact—the tumors grow on the animals’ organs and shed cells during the act.

 RNA recovered and sequenced from 14,000-year-old mummified wolf - Under the right conditions, DNA has been known to last for thousands of years, allowing scientists to study the genomes of ancient Egyptians, the very first Brits, and even early human ancestors. RNA, on the other hand, degrades much more quickly and was thought impossible to recover in older samples. But now researchers have done exactly that, isolating and sequencing the RNA of a 14,000-year-old wolf found frozen in the Siberian permafrost. DNA is where genetic information is stored long-term in an organism, and it's so effective at its job that scientists are currently investigating it as adata storage system that could far outlive conventional discs and magnetic drives. But RNA is the "working copy" of genes, giving it a much higher turnover – possibly as short as two minutes. As a result, it was long believed that recovering RNA "transcriptomes" from ancient cells was nigh on impossible. But there have been a few exceptions. The oldest RNA to be sequenced and verified is 700-year-old maize, while the oldest recovered but not able to be sequenced came from the 5,000-year-old Tyrolean Iceman.   This sample came from a specimen nicknamed the Tumat Puppy, which is the mummified remains of a Pleistocene era wolf or dog, dated to around 14,300 years old. The team isolated and analyzed RNA taken from the animal's liver tissue, and compared it to tissue from two much more recent wolf samples, from the 19th and 20th centuries.  The team successfully sequenced the older animal's RNA, and confirmed that it was representative of the creature's RNA as a whole by matching it to liver-specific transcripts from the more modern wolves. That makes this the oldest transcriptome ever sequenced, by at least 13,000 years.

World’s first human-monkey hybrid created in China, scientists reveal --Scientists say they have created the world’s first human-monkey hybrid in a laboratory in China.The researchers, who want to use animals to create organs for human life-saving transplants, say creating the hybrid was an important step. And they pledged to continue their experiments using primates.  The team revealed that they had injected human stem cells capable of creating any type of tissue into a monkey embryo. The experiment was stopped before the embryo was old enough to be born.  But the scientists – who were Spanish but held the trial in China to get round a ban on such procedures at home – said a human-monkey hybrid could have potentially been born.The embryo had first been genetically modified to deactivate genes that control organ growth.Ethical concerns were raised over the trial, partly over fears that human stem cells could migrate to the brain. Angel Raya, of the Barcelona Regenerative Medicine Centre, said experiments on organisms with cells from two species faced “ethical barriers”. He told El Pais: “What happens if the stem cells escape and form human neurons in the brain of the animal? Would it have consciousness? And what happens if these stem cells turn into sperm cells?”

Drug-Resistant Superbug Spreading Throughout European Hospitals - Antibiotic-resistant superbugs have been spreading in European hospitals, according to the BBC, citing a recent study.   The spread of Klebsiella pneumoniae is "extremely concerning" according to reserarchers with the Sanger Institute, who warn that other bacteria could become similarly resistant to "last resort" drugs known as carbapenems 'because of the unique way bacteria have sex.'  "The alarming thing is these bacteria are resistant to one of the key last-line antibiotics," said Dr. Sophia David of the Sanger Institute, adding "The infections are associated with a high mortality rate."  "It's already worrying that we're seeing 2,000 deaths in 2015 - but the concern is that if action isn't taken, then this will continue to rise."  It can live completely naturally in the intestines without causing problems for healthy people.  However, when the body is unwell, it can infect the lungs to cause pneumonia, and the blood, cuts in the skin and the lining of the brain to cause meningitis. –BBC  Sanger's study of carbapenem resistance in K. pneumoniae is the largest to date, with 244 hospitals participating from Ireland to Israel. Researchers analysed the bacterium's DNA - its genetic code - from samples from infected patients."Our findings imply hospitals are the key facilitator of transmission [and suggest that] the bacteria are spreading from person-to-person primarily within hospitals," said Dr David."The fact that we see the same high-risk clones in many different hospitals around Europe also shows there's something special about those strains." –BBC Researchers are concerned that K. pneumoniae will continue to spread, or even worse, pass along its resistance to other species of bacteria. According to the report, "two bacteria can meet up and have bacterial sex - called conjugation - and a short string of genetic information, called a plasmid, is shared between them." Sanger's study shows that "the instructions that give K. pneumoniae carbapenem resistance written on to plasmids." "These have the ability to spread very rapidly through bacterial populations," said David.

Yes, Flesh-Eating Bacteria Are in the Warm Coastal Waters – but It Doesn’t Mean You’ll Get Sick - The so-called flesh-eating bacteria, Vibrio vulnificus, is most commonly found in the warm waters of the states bordering the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico but can also be found along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. As ocean temperatures rise, it will spread with those warming waters to new ocean habitats where colder waters previously kept it in check. We have seen outbreaks of disease from similar types of Vibrio related to rising ocean temperatures as far north as Alaska. Most cases of infection occur between May and October, when coastal waters are warmest. This could change, however, as summer weather starts earlier and lasts longer. The first large outbreak I worked on in Las Vegas was caused by contaminated oysters, and it made me realize just how easily food from the ocean can show up in the desert and make people sick if it isn't harvested, handled and prepared properly. News reports tend to focus on people dying or losing limbs from the "flesh eating" bacteria. It's not front-page news when someone has a mild skin infection or eats a bad oyster and spends a couple days in the bathroom. We don't often identify the most mild illnesses because people typically don't seek medical care for them.Even so, V. vulnificus infections are rare. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that about 205 infections occur each year, of which 124 were reported in 2014, including 21 deaths. To put this in some perspective, over 32,000 people died that year in motor vehicle crashes.  Most cases tend to be males over 40 years of age and nearly all of them have some sort of underlying chronic health condition, such as liver or kidney disease, alcoholism or diabetes. Even for high-risk people, simply swimming alongside the bacteria is not enough to make you sick. The bacteria must find a way to get into your body to multiply and cause damage. For some people, this involves eating food contaminated by the bacteria – typically raw oysters. Oysters eat by filtering out small particles in the water, including bacteria, so they can contain much higher concentrations of Vibrio than the ocean itself.  Because it spreads so quickly, it can overwhelm the body before the immune system has a chance to stop the infection. Systemic infections are treatable with antibiotics, but it is important that treatment start quickly, as the death rate can be over 50%.

Smog Alert- Dirty Air Kills 30,000 Americans Each Year, New Study Claims - New findings from the Imperial College London estimate that air pollution causes heart attacks, strokes, and lung disease that kill over 30,000 Americans each year, which is about the same number of deaths from car accidents each year.  The study, published last week in the journal PLOS Medicine, found a connection between cardio-respiratory and excess particulate matter pollution, known as PM2.5, is about 30 times smaller than the width of a human hair -- comes from automotive, power generation, and industrial engines.  Millions of Americans are inhaling PM2.5 daily, which build up in small blood vessels in the lungs, and over an extended period, can cause lung disease. These dangerous particles also are absorbed into the bloodstream that can increase the risk of heart disease, the researchers suggested.Researchers noted that PM2.5 levels have dropped in the last two decades, but in some areas around the country - the levels remain seriously high. Los Angeles remained one of the worst cities for PM2.5 along with several regions in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama.  Inner cities deemed low-income areas across the US also had dangerous levels of PM2.5.Researchers said this "inequality in mortality burden" occurred because of the low-income population was already prone to higher rates of preexisting medical conditions. "I think the big conclusion is that lowering the limits of air pollution could delay in the US, all together, tens of thousands of deaths each year," Majid Ezzati, the study's lead author and a professor of global environmental health told CNN.

Questions About Agricultural Emissions Answered - As countries work to cut their emissions overall, agricultural emissions need to fall, too. To better understand agriculture's relationship with global emissions, we took a closer look at the data, using Climate Watch to answer five important questions.

• 1. What causes agricultural emissions? The majority of agricultural production emissions come from raising livestock. More than 70 billion animals are raised annually for human consumption. The biggest single source is methane from cow burps and manure. Enteric fermentation—a natural digestive process that occurs in ruminant animals such as cattle, sheep and goats—accounts for about 40% of agricultural production emissions in the past 20 years. Manure left on pasture also causes agricultural emissions. It emits nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas with a much stronger global warming impact per ton than carbon dioxide. These two processes from animal agriculture produce more than half of total agricultural production emissions. Rice cultivation and synthetic fertilizers are also major sources, each contributing more than 10% of agricultural production emissions. While we focus on agricultural production emissions in this blog post, it's important to remember that agriculture is also a leading driver of land-use change (for example through the conversion of forests to croplands or pasture). Recent WRI research estimated that agriculture and land-use change collectively accounted for nearly one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010.
• 2. What’s agriculture’s role in global and national emissions? Emissions from agricultural production currently account for 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions and have risen 14% since 2000. In 24 countries around the world, agriculture is the top source of emissions.
• 3. Which countries are responsible for the most agricultural production emissions? In the 20-year period from 1996-2016, China was responsible for the most emissions from agricultural production, followed by India, Brazil and the United States. Together, these top four agricultural emitters were responsible for 37% of global agricultural production emissions.

It’s the second dirtiest thing in the world — and you’re wearing it - - “The clothing industry is the second largest polluter in the world…second only to oil,” the recipient of an environmental award told a stunned Manhattan audience earlier this year. “It’s a really nasty business…it’s a mess.” While you’d never hear an oil tycoon malign his bonanza in such a way, the woman who stood at the podium, Eileen Fisher, is a clothing industry magnate.  Fisher’s critique may have seemed hyperbolic, but she was spot-on.When we think of pollution, we envision coal powerplants, strip-mined mountaintops and raw sewage piped into our waterways. We don’t often think of the shirts on our backs. But the overall impact the apparel industry has on our planet is quite grim.Fashion is a complicated business involving long and varied supply chains of production, raw material, textile manufacture, clothing construction, shipping, retail, use and ultimately disposal of the garment. While Fisher’s assessment that fashion is the second largest polluter is likely impossible to know, what is certain is that the fashion carbon footprint is tremendous. Determining that footprint is an overwhelming challenge due to the immense variety from one garment to the next. A general assessment must take into account not only obvious pollutants — the pesticides used in cotton farming, the toxic dyes used in manufacturing and the great amount of waste discarded clothing creates — but also the extravagant amount of natural resources used in extraction, farming, harvesting, processing, manufacturing and shipping.While cotton, especially organic cotton, might seem like a smart choice, it can still take more than 5,000 gallons of water to manufacture just a T-shirt and a pair of jeans. Synthetic, man-made fibers, while not as water-intensive, often have issues with manufacturing pollution and sustainability. And across all textiles, the manufacturing and dyeing of fabrics is chemically intensive. Globalization means that your shirt likely traveled halfway around the world in a container ship fueled by the dirtiest of fossil fuels. A current trend in fashion retail is creating an extreme demand for quick and cheap clothes and it is a huge problem. Your clothes continue to impact the environment after purchase; washing and final disposal when you’re finished with your shirt may cause more harm to the planet than you realize.

Radioactivity found in drinking water north of Columbia - State regulators are pressing a small utility with a history of troubles to explain why elevated levels of radioactivity showed up in the drinking water the company piped to customers last year in Fairfield County.The Jenkinsville Water Co. violated state drinking water standards for radioactivity from July through December of last year, even though the company had installed a treatment system to filter out the contamination. Radioactivity levels have dropped to within safe standards in recent months, but not by much — and state regulators say they are concerned about the 2,500 people who rely on Jenkinsville Water.“You are responsible for providing safe potable water to your customers,’’ according to a July 23 letter to Jenkinsville from the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control. Water quality “data indicates a necessity for you to initiate an investigation and some form of corrective actions to resolve the violations.’’  The letter gave Jenkinsville a month to tell the public about the violations. In the meantime, DHEC is considering making an enforcement case against Jenkinsville Water that could result in fines or other sanctions. The violations have been referred to DHEC’s enforcement staff, agency spokeswoman Laura Renwick said in an email.Jenkinsville, a community of working class neighborhoods and higher-end lake houses north of Columbia, has had problems with radioactivity in the water before. Since 2010, the water company has been sanctioned by DHEC four separate times for failing to comply with state drinking water standards, including two for radioactivity. The company began treating the water at one problematic well after finding radioactivity exceeded safe drinking water standards in 2013 and 2014. Some of the problems cleared up after the treatment process began, but radioactivity levels spiked last year in the public supply well on Clowney Road, DHEC records show.

‘Forever chemicals’ have been found in bottled water brands sold at Whole Foods and CVS, and it’s part of a larger contamination problem - Bottled water is often considered a safe alternative when tap water is found to contain contaminants like arsenic and lead. But a recent spate of investigations has found that not all bottled water is free of potentially toxic chemicals.In June, testing from the Center for Environmental Health found "high levels" of arsenic in bottled-water brands owned by Whole Foods and Keurig Dr Pepper. Those findings confirmed earlier research from Consumer Reports, which found levels of arsenic in the bottled water that exceeded the allowable limit set by the FDA.Regulators are also becoming increasingly concerned about the presence of another chemical, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), in bottled water.In July, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health warned residents about PFAS in bottled water sold at the state's Whole Foods and CVS locations. The advisory specifically mentioned bottled water sourced from local distributor Spring Hill Farm Dairy.  Spring Hill agreed to adopt a new filtration system, but on August 2, the company announced it was closing instead. "This whole ordeal has been too much for a small, fourth-generation family business," the company said in a statement.The International Bottled Water Association now requires its member companies to test for PFAS, but the industry group doesn't represent all bottled-water manufacturers.

Why do we drink so much bottled water? - In her wonderful book Bottlemania, Elizabeth Royte quoted a Pepsico marketing VP who told investors back in 2000: "when we are done, tap water will be relegated to showers and washing dishes." Or as the Attorney General on Idiocracy wondered, "Water? Like out the toilet?  And then there are all those plastic bottles. How will they deal with that problem? Royte quotes a Coke exec: "Our vision is to no longer have our packaging viewed as waste but as a resource for future use." – anticipating the circular economy by two decades. Bottled water has been around for a long time, but the business exploded with the development of the Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottle in 1989, which was cheaper and lighter than glass or older plastics. So now there was a way to supply bottled water profitably, but what about the demand side? This is where the true marketing brilliance came into play.  We have been trained that we have to have water constantly, as if our body can't actually hold it. I am surprised that we don't see people with Camelback packs, walking with the sipping nozzle in their mouths. We are all told that we have to drink according to the 8x8 rule, 8 full 8 ounce servings of water per day. And of course, that we have to carry it with us. And it is not true. Obviously if it is 108° in a heat wave, you are going to drink more water. We are not being doctrinaire here. But as Jessica Brown writes on the BBC, our bodies are pretty sophisticated at telling us how much water we need. “If you listen to your body, it’ll tell you when it's thirsty,” says Courtney Kipps, consultant sports physician and principal clinical teaching fellow of Sports Medicine, Exercise and Health and UCL, and medical director of Blenheim and London Triathlons. “The myth that it’s too late when you’re thirsty is based on the supposition that thirst is an imperfect marker of a fluid deficit, but why should everything else in the body be perfect and thirst be imperfect? It’s worked very well for thousands of years of human evolution.”

In Gary, Indiana, students lament revival of controversial ‘energy’ facility - Evan and Erin Addison and Andrew Arevalo spent much of their eighth grade year organizing, lobbying, rallying and reporting to prevent a “dump” — as they describe it — from being built across the street from Steel City Academy. The upstart Gary, Indiana, charter school sits amidst verdant woods and wetlands at the site of a former mental health facility. With guidance from principal Katie Kirley, the boys and other students made sure that City Council members and other elected officials knew how the truck traffic, emissions and other impacts of the proposed solid waste facility would harm students. And they underscored that while the project was called Maya Energy and billed as an environmentally friendly waste-to-energy operation, actual business plans filed with the state called for no energy generation.In the face of mounting public opposition, in October the City Council rescinded its support for the project, and Steel City Academy celebrated. But in February, theCity Council reversed its position in the face of a lawsuit from the company, clearing the way for Maya Energy to move forward. Now as they get ready for their sophomore year, the students grapple with disappointment and cynicism, mixed with determination to keep fighting. “I thought we had it over and done with — I thought they wouldn’t come back,” said Evan Addison, 15, a minute older than his twin brother, Erin. “I knew politicians, maybe not all of them, but it’s kind of known they’re there for money and don’t always try to do what’s right. But it was a surprise because I thought we had beat them.” “It’s upsetting,” said Arevalo, 15. “I learned that people can lie and still get their way.”   For the past few years, the boys have been recording their daily lives and producing a podcast, with the fight against Maya Energy playing a central role. They recorded as they delivered records requests to City Hall, and attended rallies and public meetings. The New York Times named their work one of the nation’s 10 best student podcasts. In a recent piece on National Public Radio, they talked about their work and the latest turn of events.  The council’s decision hinged on the company’s argument, in the lawsuit filed in January, citing a state law prohibiting the revocation of land use proposals within three years of an initial approval, if secondary permit applications are underway. The council’s February 7-0 decision reinstated the company’s needed zoning variance and cleared the way for it to continue seeking a solid waste permit from the state, which was awarded several weeks later. The lawsuit also alleged defamation and charged that the city caused the company undue financial hardship.

Scrap Collector: US stands as lone OECD opponent of Basel plastic amendment --In a June interview with Waste Dive, global waste activist Von Hernandez highlighted the recently ratified Basel Convention amendment — which requires importing countries to give prior informed consent before plastic scrap exports can enter their borders — as a reason to retain optimism in the face of rapid environmental degradation. The U.S., it seems, disagrees. The country has formally opposed the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) plans to adopt the amendment — the only one of 36 member nations to do so. Our free newsletter will bring you the latest waste industry news & trends. Per organization policy, new Basel Convention definitions are automatically adopted after a 60-day period unless objected to by one or more OECD members. The U.S.'s move, according to a press release from the Basel Action Network, will trigger "a lengthy debate within the OECD with a view to reaching consensus" — without which the U.S. could bar the OECD's 35 other member nations from adopting the rules.Accepting the restrictions "would impede trade for recycling and could reduce the level of recycling among OECD countries," U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler wrote in a July 3 objection letter, noting that OECD members "have the capacity to manage waste in an environmentally sound manner.""As a result [of adopting the amendment], in OECD countries, plastic recycling could decrease and landfilling of plastic scrap could increase, reducing the environmental and economic benefits that are achieved through recycling," an EPA spokesperson told Waste Dive via email.

Trump Campaign Has Made Nearly $500K Selling Plastic Straws - Last week, EcoWatch reported that the campaign to re-elect President Donald Trump was selling packs of 10 plastic straws for $15. Commentators noted that the straws came with an unusually high price tag of $1.50 per pop, but apparently it was a price Trump supporters were willing to pay. The campaign has sold more than $456,000 worth since July 19, The Guardian reported. Parscale hit upon the idea for the straws when a paper straw fell apart on him shortly after he boarded a Jet Blue flight, Politico reported. He tweeted his annoyance, but his wife encouraged him to take it further. The idea to sell Trump-brand plastic straws was born.Politico described what happened after Parscale emailed his staff with the plan:  In short order, the campaign sent an email to supporters with the subject line, "Making straws great again." By the time Parscale landed in Florida, the presidential straws were already in production and an advertising campaign was up and running. The first batch was sold out within hours. The straws are typical of the Trump campaign's marketing strategy, according to Politico. It makes bank on novelty items that take advantage of Trump's domination of the news cycle and the grievances of his supporters. Other offerings have included "Stand Up for America" football jerseys, inspired by Trump's criticism of football players who knelt during the national anthem to protest police brutality, and "Pencil-Neck Adam Schiff" T-shirts, mocking vocal Trump opponent Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA).

Lawmakers propose sweeping national plastic waste legislation - A little more than a month after they urged President Trump to develop a federal plastic waste strategy, Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., and Rep. Alan Lowenthal, D-Calif, are taking matters into their own hands. The lawmakers released an outline last week of a sweeping plan to address plastic pollution, with a goal of introducing the bill this fall. Stakeholders are invited to submit comments by Aug. 21, 2019.  The upcoming legislation — which aims to "prevent plastic pollution from consumer products from getting into animal & human food-chains, landscapes, and waterways across the United States and into our oceans" — pushes for a wide-ranging set of measures, including:

• Extended producer responsibility (EPR). As a condition of sale, producers will be required to design, manage and finance end-of-life programs for products and packaging. Industry will also be incentivized to develop more sustainable alternatives.
• Nationwide container deposit requirements. Non-refunded deposits would go into a federal fund to assist with collection infrastructure. Major beverage retailers would be required to install and operate reverse vending systems to promote container collection.
• Carryout bag fee. The fee would be deposited into a federal fund.
• Single-use plastic bans. The ban would apply to items such as expanded polystyrene, bags, cups, lids, cotton buds, cutlery, plates, straws, packaging and stirrers. Exceptions will be made for individuals with disabilities until adequate alternatives are developed.
• Labeling requirements. Plastic consumer products would require clear, standardized labeling indicating correct disposal method.
• Awareness-raising measures. States would be encouraged to educate consumers on the impact of single-use plastics as well as available reuse systems and waste management options.
• Recycling targets. Standardized single-use plastic bottle collection targets would be established for states and communities. A requirement would also be set for bottles, packaging and other products to be made from 100% recyclable materials.
• Federal waste reduction assistance. Proceeds from a federal fund, carry-out bag fees, unused container deposit requirements and other sources would go toward pollution reduction, remediation programs and innovation research.
• "Clean Cities Program." The program would use smart technologies and social media to help local governments identify pollution hotspots and implement source reduction solutions.

States that prohibit local governments from implementing "more aggressive measures" to reduce plastic consumption (i.e., single-use product fees for consumers) would lose funding from the federal fund.

Coke and Pepsi abandon the plastics lobby --Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, two major sellers of plastic bottles, have made sweeping sustainability commitments. Now they are stepping away from a plastics lobbying group.  Both soft drink companies are trying to increase the amount of recycled plastic they use in bottles. They want to improve recycling infrastructure and ensure their packages are recyclable.  But the Plastics Industry Association has encouraged states to make plastic bans illegal. Participation in the group could tarnish Coca-Cola and Pepsi's images as companies working to find solutions to plastic pollution.  The association took positions that "were not fully consistent with our commitments and goals," Coca-Cola said in a statement last week, noting that it withdrew from the group earlier this year. Pepsi said it had joined the association to learn about innovation as it works to "achieve a circular economy for plastics."

Waste Only: How the Plastic Industry is Fighting to Keep Polluting the World -- Gathered in the gilded ballroom of a Dallas hotel, the representatives of big plastics manufacturers, recyclers, raw materials providers, extruders, brand owners, and others in the plastics business grappled aloud about their role in the crisis. Especially difficult, said Kohl, who directs packaging innovation of PepsiCo’s snacks and foods, was the widely circulated picture of a dead plastic-filled albatross. “This is very emotional for our senior leaders,”   Patty Long, interim president and chief executive officer of the Plastics Industry Association, the group that convened the Texas meeting, also acknowledged the pain of being the public face of an industry held responsible for the devastation of the natural world. Long admitted that she squirmed her way through another social media phenomenon that, along with the albatross, has changed the course of the war over plastics: the video of the sea turtle with a plastic straw jammed in its nostril. Long isn’t the only one. Since it was posted in 2015, the eight excruciating minutes in which marine biologists yank at the plastic straw with pliers while the creature squirms and bleeds, has been viewed 36 million times. All in all, Long admitted, it had been a tough year, in which some 376 anti-plastics bills were introduced, and the perception of the plastics industry has continued to “spiral down exponentially.” The Plastics Industry Association is taking its cratering image seriously, working to offset it with pro-plastics presentations for elementary and middle school students, a plastics ambassadors program and, so young people can “feel good about” working in the industry, Long said, a “future leaders in plastics” group. But discomfort over the dead albatross, the bloody turtle, and industry’s public image notwithstanding, the companies that make billions from plastics have no intention of slowing down. Instead, the industry is gearing up for the fight of its life, which may explain why an expert in actual warfare gave the keynote at the plastics conference.

Paris authorities cover up lead contamination in schools caused by Notre Dame fire -  The fire caused almost 400 tons of lead roofing to be carried away by smoke onto nearby schools, maternity centers, houses and sidewalks. It was not until May 13, almost a month after the fire, that the Paris municipality, run by Socialist Party (PS) mayor Anne Hidalgo, organized the first lead contamination tests. A report published by Médiapart on July 18, based on access to the reports, revealed that “while the rates were more than the required threshold, the authorities did not communicate them, placing in danger those near the [Seine] river and nearby factory workers.” According to a 2016 advisory by the General Health Directorate (DGS), a concentration of 70 micrograms of lead per meter squared (μg/m2) “signifies a risk of lead poisoning to exposed children.” Lead poisoning causes severe permanent brain damage in infants. Out of 196 tests, 31 showed levels equal to or greater than the 70 μg/m2 threshold, the report states, and sometimes 10 times more. In one school’s dining room, windows were found to have lead levels of 4773 μg/m2. The local administration has not taken any steps to reduce these levels and has only recommended blood tests for pregnant women and children under seven. Speaking to Médiapart, Arnauld Gauthier, an official from the city’s Health Department, denied the levels were excessively high, arguing that regulations really require a lead concentration of 1000 μg/m2 before an area is considered dangerous. This is a lie. This latter level is not used for inhabited buildings. It is actually used to test the safety of recently completed industrial construction projects. In fact, DGS regulations state that if an inhabited building, such as a school, is found to have levels above 70 μg/m2, it requires a deep cleaning. Nonetheless, when asked whether the schools would be appropriately cleaned over the summer break, Gauthier replied that nothing beyond the regular summer cleaning was planned.

A little bit means a lot: Why minute toxins in the environment matter -- It used to be a mantra in environmental circles that "the solution to pollution is dilution." That simply isn't tenable anymore, and it probably never was. The reasons are many:

• We now know that many compounds are biologically active at extremely low levels.
• We know that chemicals, radiation, and biological agents can and do act synergistically to magnify their effects on humans, animals and plants.
• We know that chemicals that were thought to degrade quickly in the environment such as glyphosate may persist for long periods.
• Most people now understand that the industries producing chemical and radiation hazards have spent huge sums to propagandize the public and intimidate and control scientists in order to convince us that the industry's products and the pollution associated with them are not harmful.
• Furthermore, in many cases, the dangers have been known from the beginning and been covered up.

A little history regarding leaded gasoline, chlorofluorocarbons, bisphenol A, and wireless radiation will highlight these conclusions. Let us start with leaded gasoline which was invented in the early 1920s to increase the performance of gasoline engines—essentially to get rid of the "knocking" noise which also indicates inefficient combustion.The now infamous inventor of leaded gasoline, chemist Thomas Midgely, certainly knew that the lead compound in question, tetraethyl lead, was poisonous. How? Midgely himself came down with lead poisoning from exposure to the substance.Later, five workers manufacturing the compound died from lead poisoning. And yet, a task force convened by the U.S. Public Health Service concluded that the levels of lead emitted from vehicle exhaust pipes would be too diffuse to cause  problems. The members concluded this even though every driver tested by the panel was positive for lead in his or her blood. The tests took place after leaded gasoline was being widely used.  Clair Patterson, best known for his work in establishing the age of the Earth. discovered vastly increased lead levels in industrially contaminated soils and air. Atmospheric lead was 1,000 times the natural background level. His findings were published in 1965.

Life Expectancy Falters In The UK - A special report in the Observer newspaper in the UK on 23 June 2019 asked the question: Why is life expectancy faltering? The piece noted that for the first time in 100 years, Britons are dying earlier. The UK now has the worst health trends in Western Europe. Aside from the figures for the elderly and the deprived, there has also been a worrying change in infant mortality rates. Since 2014, the rate has increased every year: the figure for 2017 is significantly higher than the one in 2014. To explain this increase in infant mortality, certain experts blame it on ‘austerity’, fewer midwives, an overstrained ambulance service, general deterioration of hospitals, greater poverty among pregnant women and cuts that mean there are fewer health visitors for patients in need.While all these explanations may be valid, according to environmental campaigner Dr Rosemary Mason, there is something the mainstream narrative is avoiding. She says:We are being poisoned by weedkiller and other pesticides in our food and weedkiller sprayed indiscriminately on our communities. The media remain silent.”The poisoning of the UK public by the agrochemical industry is the focus of her new report – Why is life expectancy faltering: The British Government has worked with Monsanto and Bayer since 1949. What follows are edited highlights of the text in which she cites many official sources and reports as well as numerous peer-reviewed studies in support of her arguments.

Roundup Roundup: Judge Slashes Punitive Damages Award in Glyphosate Lawsuit -  Jerri-Lynn Scofield -Alameda County Superior Court Judge Winifred Smith on Thursday slashed a punitive damages award from $2.055 billion to $87 million in a lawsuit that concluded Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide caused cancer. This is the second time this month and the third time overall that a judge has reduced a jury’s punitive damages award in a glyphosate lawsuit.  The moves to reducing damages are not unexpected – as I previously discussed (see Glyphosate Use Surges in Midwest, Lawsuits Mount: What Will the Supremes Say?). And the punitive damages awarded originally in this case were for the eye-popping amount of $2 billion. A series of precedents over the last couple of decades has drastically circumscribed overall punitive damages awards on constitutional grounds, and now largely limits them to single-digit multipliers of economic damages (see, e.g., State Farm Mut. Automobile Ins. Co. v. Campbell (2003)).  The seemingly arcane area is just one in which judges have handed down business-friendly decisions.  Other areas include: limitations on class actions, upholding mandatory arbitration clauses; and narrowing grounds for personal jurisdiction to sue an out-of-state corporation in a court in the plaintiff’s home state. Taken together, these legal decisions increase the formidable obstacles ordinary people face in getting one’s day in court – let alone prevailing in a lawsuit. The increased pro-corporate bias of the judicial system in turn reduces accountability and the pressures on corporations to do the right thing, else they might lose a lawsuit and payout a substantial judgment. I should mention that this pro-business legal shift is a bipartisan affair: Democrat appointees also support and affirm these judgements.  Yet despite slashing the amounts of damages, the latest case represents a solid win for plaintiffs. And the damages awarded, a mix of compensatory and punitive damages, remain substantial: $86.7 million. (Although I must mention, the appeals process is far from exhausted, and it’s far too early to assess how these lawsuits will play out – and how much money Bayer will ultimately fork out.) Bayer – which assumed Roundup legal liabilities when it acquired US manufacturer Monsanto last year  – is faced with more than 13,000 pending glyphosate actions. The company has lost three cases far in California courts – all in the Bay Area – and won zero.  As Deutche Welle reports in US judge reduces $2 billion Monsanto Roundup verdict against Bayer, the legal verdicts have “[pounded] its share price and [left]  the entire company with a stock market capitalization less than the $63 billion it paid for Monsanto in a takeover completed last year.” Bayer continues to affirm – at least in its public statements – that its legal strategy will be upheld on appeal. As the FT reports in US judge slashes $2bn verdict against Bayer in Roundup case: In a statement, Bayer said it welcomed the judge’s decision as a “step in the right direction”, but that it would still file an appeal to have the entire verdict overturned. The German group has insisted all along that glyphosate-based pesticides are safe for use.

 Swarms of grasshoppers invade Las Vegas: 'Everybody was going crazy’ - A migration of mild-mannered grasshoppers sweeping through the Las Vegas area is being attributed to wet weather several months ago. The insects are harmless but tourists were stunned by what some are calling the "Great Grasshopper Invasion of 2019." Nevada state entomologist Jeff Knight blamed the massive migration of grasshoppers on wetter than normal weather."It was crazy. We didn't even want to walk through there. Everybody was going crazy," Diana Rodriquez told CBS affiliate KLAS. "We were wondering like what's going on." One video showed shows thousands of grasshoppers descending on the Las Vegas Strip, the station reported. Nevada state entomologist Jeff Knight told reporters the number of adult pallid-winged grasshoppers traveling north to central Nevada is unusual but not unprecedented and they pose no danger. Knight says the insects don't carry disease, don't bite, and probably won't damage anybody's yard before they're gone in several weeks. He says they're usually attracted to ultraviolet light sources. Knight recalls several similar migrations in his more than 30 years at the state Department of Agriculture, including one about six or seven years ago. This year, the Las Vegas area recorded more rain in six months than the annual average of just under 4.2 inches per year.

New BLM Appointee Believes Founding Fathers Wanted All Public Lands to Be Sold off -- Control over nearly 250 million acres of public lands was placed Monday in the hands of a former Reagan administration official who has argued that all federal lands should be sold to fossil fuel and other corporate interests in accordance with the goals of the signers of the Declaration of Independence.  Interior Secretary David Bernhardt appointed attorney William Perry Pendley as acting head of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), sending fears throughout conservation groups that many of the country's minerals and resources will soon be handed over to oil and gas companies.  Pendley wrote in 2016 that "the Founding Fathers intended all lands owned by the federal government to be sold," and as recently as this month he lauded fossil fuel extraction as an "energy, economic, and environmental miracle."  "This appointment shows Trump and Bernhardt are only interested in selling off public lands to the highest bidder," said Chris Saeger, executive director of the Western Values Project, in a statement. "Pendley is an outspoken advocate for the transfer of public lands to the state. Anything they've ever said about not selling off public lands has just been a political smokescreen to distract from their real intentions: handing over public lands to their special interest allies."  Pendley's appointment comes on the heels of the Interior Department's decision to spread the BLM's Washington, DC-based headquarters across a number of western states, a move which critics say is aimed at giving the agency less control over federal decision-making about federal lands.  The news of Pendley "ascending to the top of BLM just as it is being reorganized strongly suggests the administration is positioning itself to liquidate our shared public lands," Phil Hanceford, conservation director for The Wilderness Society, told the Associated Press.  Under the Trump administration, Pendley has been critical of the Interior Department's shrinking of Bears Ears and Grand Escalante National Monuments — because he feels the president has not been aggressive enough in offering the public lands for what he views as their sole purposes: "ranching, mile, oil and gas, or energy activities," according to a 2016 interview.  "We now have someone in charge of the BLM who would prefer to sell those places off rather than doing the job of caring for them on behalf of all Americans,"

China’s pig herd predicted to shrink by 50% due 50% due to swine fever - China’s pig herd could halve by the end of 2019 from a year earlier as an epidemic of African swine fever sweeps through the world’s top pork producer, analysts at Dutch bank Rabobank forecast on Tuesday. The bank said China’s herd, by far the world’s biggest, was already estimated to have shrunk by 40% from a year ago, well above official estimates which have ranged from 15% to 26%. The forecast comes amid industry speculation that the decline has been much worse than confirmed by agriculture officials, who this month launched an investigation of local authorities’ efforts to contain the disease. Rabobank said China’s pork production in 2019 was expected to fall by 25 percent from the previous year, a smaller drop than pig herd loss due to the large number of animals slaughtered in first half of 2019. Output of pork, China’s favorite meat, will likely drop by a further 10% to 15% in 2020, it said in a report. Production may take more than 5 years to recover to levels prior to the deadly outbreaks as challenges including a lack of solutions to prevent the disease and a lack of capital will restrict restocking, it added. Reuters reported earlier this month that as many as half of China’s breeding pigs have either died from African swine fever or been slaughtered because of the spreading disease. Rabobank, which late last year estimated China’s pig herd at 360 million animals, said in April that up to 200 million pigs could be culled or die due to the disease, while pork output could fall by 30 percent.

Boar wars: how wild hogs are trashing European cities -- Listed on the World Conservation Union’s most invasive species list, the wild boar does well in just about any environment, from semi-arid plains to alpine forests and marshy grasslands. But more and more, they are drawn to city life. In Barcelona and Berlin, Houston and Hong Kong, groups of wild boar have been seen roaming around town at all hours. In Rome, where I live, boars rooting through uncollected piles of trash have come to symbolise the decline of the city.The arrival of wild boar in town squares and city parks is forcing us to confront a new reality: we are bumping up against the limits of urbanisation. This is a crisis we have largely inflicted on ourselves. City sprawl is driving the species out of its dwindling natural habitats and forcing it to live alongside us. At the same time, we entice it with the tides of garbage and wasted food that wash around our cities. For years, boar have been fattening up on our crops. And now they follow us into our dirty, sprawling cities. Although their numbers are increasing as they migrate to the cities, the move is making them – and us – sick. Boars carry a host of diseases, including tuberculosis, hepatitis E and influenza A, that can make the jump to humans. In addition to spreading disease, wild boar each year cause thousands of road accidents. In January, a group of wild boar crossed a highway south of Milan, leading to a three-car pile-up which killed one driver and injured several more. The boar destroy property, devour ground-nesting animals – including endangered turtles’ eggs – and crops, such as fragile vine roots and shoots. Italian farmers estimate the boar inflict €100m (£90m) worth of crop damage annually. As the animals’ toll on public health and the economy climbs, communities from Texas to New South Wales have begun to wage war on the species – a campaign fought in public parks, on golf courses, on farmland and on street corners at dusk.

Just 'Days' Left to Save 6 to 19 Remaining Vaquitas  There are only between six and 19 vaquitas left, a new study has concluded, and, unless swift action is taken, the endangered species could go extinct within a year.The world's smallest porpoises, found only in Mexico's Gulf of California, are threatened because they are caught by mistake in illegal gillnets. The study, published in Royal Society Open Science Wednesday, found that 10 had died this way from March 2016 to March 2019. "Every day wasted is making a difference. The key thing is that we need action now," study co-author Len Thomas, an ecological statistician at the University of St. Andrews' Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, told Vice. "There are only days to do this."The world's most endangered marine mammal, the #vaquita, is now literally on the brink of extinction due to bycatch in an illegal fishery. We estimate only 9 remained in summer 2018 (confidence interval 6-19). Deaths continuing, *immediate* action needed.https://t.co/SacfgOgbf0 pic.twitter.com/EU1ADPplMz— Len Thomas (@len_thom) July 31, 2019   Researchers from St. Andrews in Scotland, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Mexican government counted the vaquitas by listening for their echolocation clicks. It is easier to monitor the porpoises acoustically than visually, The Weather Channel explained. Since they began acoustic monitoring in 2011, the researchers have determined that the vaquita population has fallen by 98.6 percent.That decline is due to the use of gillnets, large vertical nets that fishermen leave in the water to collect the totoaba whose bladders are important in traditional Chinese medicine, The Guardian explained.Mexico banned fishing with gillnets in 2015, but despite this, the practice has continued. The researchers found that the vaquita population declined by 48 percent in 2017 and 47 percent in 2018. Their numbers are now dangerously low."Based on the uncertainty inherent in the models, the number could be as few as six," Thomas told The Guardian.

European Heat Wave July 2019 - In July 2019, Europe experienced the second of two extreme and unprecedented summer heat waves. Three countries set all-time record highs on July 24: Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands. On July 25, Paris hit 108.7°F, breaking its all-time high temperature record of 104.7°F (40.4°C) by 4°F. During the first round of extreme heat in late June, eight European countries and hundreds of cities and municipalities experienced their highest recorded June temperature. Rapid attribution analysis found that climate change made the record June 2019 heat in France up to 100 times more likely and up to 7.2°F (4°C) hotter. A climate change attribution study looking at extreme heat during the summer of 2018 found the concurrent heat events in the Northern Hemisphere could not have happened without climate change. Attribution studies are increasingly showing that these kinds of extreme heat events would not even be possible without climate change.

• Extreme heat and heat waves are some of the clearest impacts of climate change on extreme weather.
• Four out of five record-hot days globally are now amplified by global warming.[2]
• Rapid attribution analysis found that climate change made the record June 2019 heat up to 100 times more likely in France and up to 7.2°F (4°C) hotter.[3]
• Hot nights are particularly characteristic of climate change on a warming planet.
• Hot nighttime temperatures reduce the number of critically important relief windows during heat waves.
• The hottest summers since 1500 AD in Europe were: 2018, 2010, 2003, 2016, 2002.[4]

United Kingdom sets all-time high temperature record - The heat wave that scorched Europe last week has broken another record: The reading of 101.7 degrees Fahrenheit in Cambridge, England, was the United Kingdom's all-time highest temperature, scientists officially announced Monday. This breaks the previous record of 101.3 degrees, which was set during the August 2003 heat wave. The temperature was recorded Thursday and confirmed Monday after "quality control and analysis" by the Met Office."Exceptionally high temperatures gripped large parts of central and western Europe last week, and the U.K. joins Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands in breaking national temperature records," the U.K. Met Office said in a statement.   The hot, dry air originated in Africa and was pumped north across the United Kingdom and other parts of Europe. This was a similar set-up to the heat wave that blasted Europe at the end of June. According to the Met Office, which is Britain's national weather service, heat waves are extreme weather events, but research shows that with climate change they are likely to become more intense.

Highest temperature ever recorded in the UK -- As the world warms, yet another all-time national heat record has been set. The 38.7°C [101.66°F] recorded in Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July during the recent European heatwave has now been confirmed to be the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK. The UK’s Met Office checked the instrument and site before confirming the record, which is why it has taken a few days to confirm. New all-time national records were also set on 25 July in Germany (42.6°C/108.68°F), Belgium (41.8°C), Luxembourg (40.8°C) and the Netherlands (40.7°C). Many more places across Europe also recorded the highest temperatures ever for those locations. The July heatwave in Europe came just a few weeks after a June heatwave set records. Many other parts of the world have also had record heat. So far this year 11 countries have recorded their hottest ever temperatures, according to weather records compiler Maximiliano Herrera. None have recorded coldest ever temperatures. None of the new heat records are likely to last long. The world has so far warmed around 1°C [1.8°F] and is currently on track to warm 3 or 4°C [7.2°F] by 2100.

Met Office: UK’s 10 hottest years on record occurred since 2002 - The UK’s 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2002, the Met Office has said. Its statistics stretching back to 1884 reveal a worrying trend, as the planet as a whole deals with the climate crisis.In a further indication of how the climate is heating up, the records show that none of the UK’s 10 coldest years have occurred since 1963.“The world has warmed 1C since pre-industrial times, meaning that hot years are the new normal,” said Dr Michael Byrne from the University of St Andrews. “Not only is the UK getting warmer, but also wetter, with 13% more summer rain compared to last century. With global emissions of greenhouse gases on the rise, the UK will continue to get warmer and wetter as global warming accelerates.“The science of climate change is now clear. The UK government must ramp up preparations and ensure that our infrastructure and citizens are prepared for what is to come.” The data formed part of the Met Office’s latest annual state of the climate report, published in the International Journal of Climatology. The temperature series for the UK has been extended back by 26 years from 1910, as the data was added as part of ongoing work to digitise historical weather records.

Think the heatwave was bad? Climate already hitting key tipping points - With temperature records tumbling daily in last week’s European heatwave, that foretaste of a radically hotter world underscored what is at stake in a decisive phase of talks to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement, a collective shot at avoiding climate breakdown.With study-after-study showing climate impacts from extreme weather to polar melt and sea level rise outstripping initial forecasts, negotiators have a fast-closing window to try to turn the aspirations agreed in Paris into meaningful outcomes.“There’s so much on the line in the next 18 months or so,” said Sue Reid, vice-president of climate and energy at Ceres, a U.S. non-profit group that works to steer companies and investors onto a more sustainable path.“This is a crucial period of time both for public officials and the private sector to really reverse the curve on emissions,” Reid told Reuters.In October, the U.N.-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned emissions must start falling next year at the latest to stand a chance of achieving the deal’s goal of holding the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.With emissions currently on track to push temperatures more than three degrees higher, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is working to wrest bigger commitments from governments ahead of a summit in New York in September.Telling world leaders that failing to cut emissions would be “suicidal,” the Portuguese diplomat wants to build momentum ahead of a fresh round of climate talks in Chile in December.By the time Britain convenes a major follow-up summit in late 2020, plans are supposed to be underway - in theory at least - to almost halve global emissions over the next decade. “In the next year-and-a-half we will witness an intensity of climate diplomacy not seen since the Paris Agreement was signed,”

Europe's record heatwave threatens Greenland ice sheet (Reuters) - The hot air that smashed European weather records this week looks set to move towards Greenland and could cause record melting of the world's second largest ice sheet, the United Nations said on Friday.Clare Nullis, spokeswoman for the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, said the hot air moving up from North Africa had not merely broken European temperature records on Thursday but surpassed them by 2, 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, which she described as "absolutely incredible"."According to forecasts, and this is of concern, the atmospheric flow is now going to transport that heat towards Greenland," she told a regular U.N. briefing in Geneva."This will result in high temperatures and consequently enhanced melting of the Greenland ice sheet," she said. "We don't know yet whether it will beat the 2012 level, but it's close."Nullis cited data from Denmark's Polar Portal, which measures the daily gains and losses in surface mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet."In July alone, it lost 160 billion tonnes of ice through surface melting. That's roughly the equivalent of 64 million Olympic-sized swimming pools. Just in July. Just surface melt - it's not including ocean melt as well."The Greenland Ice Sheet covers 80% of the island and has developed over many thousands of years, with layers of snow compressed into ice.The dome of ice rises to a height of 3,000 meters and the total volume of the ice sheet is approximately 2,900,000 cubic kilometres, which would raise global sea levels by 7 metres if it melted entirely, according to the Polar Portal website.Greenland had not had exceptional weather this year until June, but its ice had been melting rapidly in recent weeks, she said.The warmer air also had implications for Arctic ice extent, which was nearly the lowest on record as of July 15, Nullis said.

Heatwave: think it’s hot in Europe? The human body is already close to thermal limits elsewhere  -I am a scientist who researches climate hazards. This week I have published research on the potential for a catastrophic cyclone-heatwave combo in the global south. Yet over the past few days I have been approached by various media outlets to talk not about that hazard, but about the unfolding UK heatwave and climate change. .It is by now very well established that hot extremes are more likely in the changed climate we are living in. Yet there is a seemingly unquenchable thirst for this story to be retold every time the UK sweats. Narratives around such acute, local events detract from critical messages about the global challenges from extreme heat.Make no mistake, maximum temperatures of 35°C or more are hot by UK standards, but such conditions are familiar to around 80% of the world’s population. The headline-grabbing 46°C recently experienced by Britain’s neighbours in France is indeed unusual, but still falls short of the 50°C recorded in India earlier this summer, and is somewhat temperate relative to the 54°C confirmed for both Pakistan (in 2017) and Kuwait (in 2016). People in these hotter climates are better at coping with high temperatures, yet such heat still kills. Deadly heatwaves are, of course, no stranger to Europeans. The infamous 2003 event claimed as many as 70,000 lives, and 2010 saw more than 50,000 fatalities in western Russia. Fortunately, lessons were learned and authorities are now much better prepared when heat-health alerts are issued. But spare a thought for less fortunate communities who are routinely experiencing extraordinary temperatures. In places like South Asia and the Persian Gulf, the human body, despite all its remarkable thermal efficiencies, is often operating close to its limits.

In a World With More and Intense Heat-Waves, a Review of What Heat Does to Us  - Sweating and breathing are two important ways in which the body copes with heat. However, these measures are temporary; sustained heat prevents the blood from shedding heat at the skin. If ambient humidity is high, the body will also get quickly dehydrated. If the combination of temperature and humidity, called the wet-bulb temperature, exceeds 35º C, all systems fail. This is the upper limit of survivability; even a wet-bulb temperature of 30º C is very dangerous, according to a 2017 study. Exposure to severe heat leads directly to heat exhaustion, an illness characterised by dizziness, fatigue, headache and fainting. This is usually treated by cooling the body under a shade and supplying electrolytes. If it isn’t treated, however, heat exhaustion can lead to heat-stroke, where the body shuts down the sweating mechanism, leading to mental confusion, seizures and probably loss of consciousness. Apart from direct effects such as illnesses and mortality, researchers have also studied the morbidity associated with chronic heat and have found that it is not peripheral. In fact, it has insidious, wide-ranging effects on organs and exacerbates pre-existing conditions such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart- and/or diabetes-related conditions, and kidney disease and chronic kidney disease (CKD). “The main diseases of concern are asthma, rhinosinusitis, COPD and respiratory tract infections,” according to one 2014 paper published in the journal European Respiratory Review. “Groups at higher risk of climate change effects include individuals with pre-existing cardiopulmonary diseases or disadvantaged individuals.” Indeed, in 2016, researchers from the Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, were able to ascertain that indoor heat and air pollution could together increase the respiratory morbidity in people with COPD. Heat can be additionally dangerous if one’s environs don’t cool in the evening because this deprives the body of respite after a day’s work. Heat-induced deaths have been increasing around the world together with an increase in night-time temperatures.

At least 11 people, including an amusement park mascot, have died across Japan in an unexpected heat wave - At least 11 people, including a theme park mascot, have died due to an unexpected heat wave sweeping Japan.An additional 5,664 people around the country were taken to hospital with heat-related medical issues last week, the Japanese government said Tuesday,according to the Kyodo news agency.Temperatures unexpectedly rose after the end of the country's rainy season, with most of the country's monitoring posts recording highs of over 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The city of Nagoya, central Japan, is due a high of 37 C (98.6 F) on Thursday and Friday, according to the JMA.Yohei Yamaguchi, a 28-year-old part-time amusement park worker, died from heatstroke after practising a dance outdoors in a 16-kilogram (35.3-pound) mascot costume on Sunday night, Kyodo reported.Yamaguchi had been practicing the dance on an outdoors stage in Hirakata amusement park for about 20 minutes from 7:30 p.m., and lost consciousness around 8 p.m., Kyodo and The Asahi Shimbun reported, citing local police.He died shortly after being rushed to hospital, Asahi reported. Temperatures were about 28.7 C (83.7 F) at the time, the newspaper said, citing the meteorological agency.

Minnesota Weather: Temperatures Dip To 37 Degrees In International Falls, Breaking 121-Year-Old Record – While the calendar says Minnesota is in the middle of summer, it felt like fall in northern Minnesota on Tuesday morning. A new daily low temperature record was set in International Falls, where the mercury dipped to 37 degrees, breaking the record (38 degrees) set back in 1898.   A new record low up north this morning. 37° in @Int_Falls_MN, breaks the old record of 38° that stood since 1898. #mnwx  Typically, low temperatures in International Fall, which sits along the Minnesota-Canada border, hover around the mid-50s this time of year.Temperatures in the area don’t typically reach the 30s until late September, early October.In the Twin Cities, temperatures were cool Tuesday morning but not record-breaking. Highs Tuesday are expected to be below average, in the mid-70s, despite sunny skies.

Record Cold in July: Unusually Strong Midsummer Cold Front Refreshes Plains, South (RECAP) - An unusually potent push of cool, dry air by late-July standards set daily record lows across the Plains and South this week, a welcome break from summer's heat and humidity. A particularly humid heat wave just ended, with parts of the Northeast seeing triple-digit heat for the first time in years, all-time record-hot daily lows tied in Boston and Rockford, Illinois, and heat indices of 120 degrees in parts of the upper Midwest. Instead of its usual midsummer location in the northern U.S., the jet stream plunged sharply into the East and South this week, pulling cooler and drier air deep into the South. Dew points in the 50s plunged as far south as the Texas Gulf Coast and some other parts of the Deep South at times. Dew-point values this low in summer are rare in Houston. Since the 1940s, the dew point in Houston has only been below 60 degrees less than 1% of the time during July. Kansas City, Missouri (57 degrees), Dodge City, Kansas (55 degrees), and Springfield, Illinois (54 degrees), tied daily record lows on Tuesday morning.A few more daily record lows were tied or broken Wednesday morning in Houston (68 degrees - tie), Austin, Texas (67 degrees), San Antonio (64 degrees - tie), Abilene, Texas (62 degrees), Little Rock, Arkansas (62 degrees - tie) and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (59 degrees).On Thursday, Austin, Texas (at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport), saw its coolest July morning on record when temperatures dropped to 58 degrees. Houston dipped to 66 degrees, not a daily record but still the city's coolest July reading in 25 years. Daily record lows were also set on Thursday morning in McAlester, Oklahoma (58 degrees), Corpus Christi, Texas (69 degrees), Wichita Falls, Texas (63 degrees), Memphis (62 degrees - tie), Charlotte, North Carolina (61 degrees), Macon, Georgia (60 degrees), Tupelo, Mississippi (60 degrees), Little Rock (60 degrees) and Jackson, Tennessee (55 degrees). It was Little Rock's coolest July temperature since 1990.Little Rock set a daily record low on Friday for the third consecutive day, when temperatures dipped to 62 degrees. This is only the second time Little Rock has set or tied a daily record low for three consecutive days in July. San Angelo, Texas, also saw three days in a row of daily record lows when the temperature dropped to 60 degrees on Friday. Three consecutive days of daily record lows also occurred in Waco, Texas, this week, after experiencing its first temperature at or above 100 degrees on Monday. On Friday morning, additional daily record lows were set in Corpus Christi, Texas (68 degrees), San Antonio, Texas (66 degrees), Austin (at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, 61 degrees), Wichita Falls, Texas, (61 degrees) and Oklahoma City (60 degrees). Victoria, Texas also set a new daily record with a low of 64 degrees, which shattered the previous record by 5 degrees. Houston saw lows in the 60s three straight mornings, which hasn't happened there in July in25 years, according to the National Weather Service.

Millions displaced and hundreds killed by monsoonal floods in South Asia - Heavy monsoonal rains that began in early July have battered the lives of millions of people in Nepal, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Though the weather situation has improved, social conditions will worsen in the coming period, with livelihoods and dwellings devastated and increased risks of disease outbreaks. While current reports indicate that around 600 people have been killed across these countries, the real figure may well be higher because many casualties go unreported. UN estimates show that over 25 million people have been displaced, with the majority being poor people living a hand-to-mouth daily existence. India is the worst affected. According to an NDTV report on Monday, 170 people were killed and nearly 11 million impacted by flooding in the Indian states of Assam and Bihar. More than 100 of these deaths occurred in Bihar, India’s poorest state. In the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, 32 people were killed by lightning strikes on Sunday, while 2,283 villages in 18 of the 33 flood-hit districts of the state remain under water. Food production has been shattered and thousands of villagers rendered homeless. Last Thursday an express train near Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra state, was stranded for more than 12 hours when a river burst its banks and submerged rail lines. Indian navy helicopters and emergency boats rescued around 1,000 passengers. In Assam, over 180 animals, including 16 rhinos, died in Assam’s Kaziranga National Park. At least 113 deaths have been reported in Nepal, with 38 people still missing due to serious flooding and landslides in the mountainous state. Massive destruction has occurred in the eastern parts of the country. Many bridges and roads have collapsed or been washed away. The repair bill is estimated to be more than 300 million Nepal rupees ($US2.7 million). In Bangladesh, over 75 people were killed and more than six million displaced in 28 districts, but with many still reported missing, the death toll will be higher. The Jamuna River embankment was breached on July 17, flooding at least 40 villages and inundating the dwellings of over 200,000 people.

Flood Relief: India Gathers Satellite Imagery from Several Space Agencies - India has acquired satellite imagery from eight international space agencies, including China, to monitor the extent of floods which have devastated three states, killed over 190 people and affected over 7 million people. On Friday morning, the new Chinese ambassador-designate to India, Sun Weidong tweeted that following ISRO’s request to international agencies, China had provided India with data for flood-hit regions to assist in flood relief efforts. “Hope all gets well soon,” he wrote.MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar subsequently noted that India had “activated” the International Charter: Space and Major Disaster on July 17 to acquire satellite imagery from different space agencies of the floods.This request was made through the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) on behalf of ISRO, which is a member of International Charter Space and Major Disasters. Set up under the UN’s Space based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-Spider), state space agencies are part of a collaborative network to share data and products based on the requests made by members.“Whenever there is a natural disaster, NRSC and member space agencies of other 32 countries which are a part of Charter can activate the Charter and then the Charter seeks the information pertaining to disaster- hit area available with all the 33 member space agencies. This is the standard practice,” explained Kumar.  “Due to the heavy floods in India, the Charter was activated on July 17 by NRSC. Under the Charter, so far data has been received from 8 countries, including USGS, CNES, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) and 3 others. ISRO has also provided information to other Space Agencies in response to similar requests,” he added. The above-average rainfall has led to floods in Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The north-eastern state has been the hardest hit, with the death toll reaching 75. There is apprehension about further floods, after Bhutan released excess water from Kuricchu Hydropower reservoirs which could lead to rise in water level in seven districts in Assam.

Taps Run Dry in Zimbabwe’s Capital City Leaving 2 Million People With Running Water Only Once a Week - Water is life.  And, life without water is a daily nightmare endured in Zimbabwe's capital city, Harare, where more than two million people only have running water once a week, according to the New York Times.The water shortage there means residents ration bathroom trips and stand in interminable lines to fill buckets and cans at communal boreholes. One mother profiled by the New York Times got in line at 3 a.m. By the afternoon, she was still standing in line. The boreholes are a problem too since they are so polluted. "Water-borne diseases linked to these boreholes are on the rise, but people have had to take in their own hands water supply because the utility has failed to provide water," said Jean-Marie Kileshye-Onema, network manager of WaterNet, as Climate Change News reported. The water rationing started in June in the country's two major cities, Harare and Bulawayo. The economics of water purification are also working against Zimbabwe. The city government has had to work a critical shortage of purifying chemicals, which cost in excess of $3 million per month, according to CNN. "We are using more chemicals and we have not been able to procure enough safe chemicals as a result, we are targeting to provide water to our residents with a minimum of once a week' supply of the precious liquid," said Mabhena Moyo, Harare's Acting Water director, as CNN reported. The shortage, which started in January but has been exacerbated in July, is due to an awful drought year from the climate crisis. Poor water management has also squandered the remaining water. An estimate of 45 to 60 percent of the water that's left in Harare reservoirs is lost through leakage and theft, said Herbert Gomba, the mayor of Harare, as the New York Times reported. "There is a rotational water supply within the five towns," said Michael Chideme, Harare city council corporate communications manager, to Climate Change News. "Some people are getting water five days a week especially in the western suburbs, but the northern suburbs are going for weeks without a drop in their taps." The water crisis has raised fears of a cholera outbreak or other waterborne diseases, especially in areas where residents have lived without water for three months, said Community Water Alliance, an NGO, as CNNreported.

Living without water: the crisis pushing people out of El Salvador  - Victor Funez fills a three-gallon plastic pitcher with water from a tap in the cemetery, balances it on his head and trudges home, where his wife waits to soak maize kernels so she can make tortillas for breakfast. The tap is the family’s only source of water, so Funez makes the journey along the dusty dirt road 15 to 20 times each day.  “My husband’s job is to fetch the water so I can do the housework. It’s like this every day, all day,” said Bianca Lopez, 46. “We can live without electricity – we have candles and lamps – but water, that’s essential.”  La Estación is a makeshift community of 59 households along disused railway tracks that cut across Nejapa – a semi-urban municipality on the northern outskirts of El Salvador’s capital. This tiny Central American state is one of the most murderous in the world, plagued by warring gang factions and security forces who shoot to kill. Relentless bloodshed and chronic unemployment have driven wave after wave of migration as Salvadorans seek a better life.But in recent years, widespread water shortages are increasingly helping fuel unrest and forced displacement.“Marginalized communities struggle day to day to get access to enough water. It’s not a question that this could one day cause social conflict – it already is … the whole country is close to crisis,” said Silvia de Larios, the former director of ecosystems and wildlife at the ministry of environment and natural resources (known by its Spanish acronym, Marn).

Over 80,000 Quakes Have Hit California Since July 4th, Aftershocks Headed "Toward The Garlock Fault" - The recent seismic activity in the state of California has taken a strange turn.  According to the Los Angeles Times, there have been more than 80,000 earthquakes in the state since July 4th, and most of those quakes were aftershocks of the two very large events that hit the Ridgecrest area early in the month.  Over the past couple of weeks, however, a very unusual pattern has begun to emerge.  We have started to see aftershocks creep toward two of the largest fault lines in southern California, and this is making seismologists very nervous.  The fact that we are seeing aftershocks “approaching the Owens Valley fault” is definitely alarming, but of far more concern is the fact that the Ridgecrest aftershocks are also headed “toward the Garlock fault”.  The following comes from a local California news source…According to a Los Angeles Times article , aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 earthquake near Ridgecrest have been creeping into areas close to two major earthquake faults which is concerning for some seismologists on whether it could trigger another huge temblor.“Some aftershocks have rumbled northwest of the Searles Valley earthquake, approaching the Owens Valley fault. That fault triggered an earthquake of perhaps magnitude 7.8 or 7.9 in 1872, one of the largest in California’s modern record,” the article explains. “The Ridgecrest aftershocks have also headed southeast toward the Garlock fault, a lesser-known fault capable of producing an earthquake of magnitude 8 or more. The fault along the northern edge of the Mojave Desert can send shaking south and west into Bakersfield and Ventura and Los Angeles counties.”In the end, this could turn out to be nothing, but there are a couple of reasons why we want to keep a very close eye on the Garlock fault.First of all, the Garlock fault is the second largest fault line in the entire state of California, and it is a major threat to southern California.Secondly, the Garlock fault runs directly into the San Andreas fault, and many believe that a major quake along one could potentially trigger a major quake along the other.

SpaceX's launch of an experimental rocket ship set fire to about 100 acres of wildlife refuge in south Texas - Late Thursday night, SpaceX launched an experimental rocket ship known as Starhopper into the air for the first time— but the launch produced more fiery excitement than anyone bargained for.Starhopper is a test-bed for a much larger launch system called Starship, which the company is designing to send people to the moon and Mars. SpaceX is building and testing the vehicle near a small, remote beach community called Boca Chica at the southern tip of Texas. Company founder Elon Musk hailed the test flight, which sent the rocket soaring to about 65 feet (20 meters), as a success early Friday morning. He also poked fun at the vehicle's simplistic design. "Starhopper flight successful. Water towers *can* fly haha!!" Musktweeted. He later shared aerial drone footage of the flight, below. However, flaming debris spread by Starhopper's powerful rocket engine almost immediately started brush fires near the launch pad. Emergency workers used a firetruck and other tools to control the flames over the next couple of hours. Despite their efforts, some of the fire spread into the nearby Las Palomas Wildlife Management Area. "A brush fire occurred after our first successful Starship prototype hop. The SpaceX team is working with the Brownsville Fire Department to manage the incident, which is well under control," a SpaceX spokesperson told Business Insider in an email on Friday morning.

'Unprecedented': more than 100 Arctic wildfires burn in worst ever season - The Arctic is suffering its worst wildfire season on record, with huge blazes in Greenland, Siberia and Alaska producing plumes of smoke that can be seen from space.The Arctic region has recorded its hottest June ever. Since the start of that month, more than 100 wildfires have burned in the Arctic circle. In Russia, 11 of 49 regions are experiencing wildfires.The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations’ weather and climate monitoring service, has called the Arctic fires “unprecedented”.The largest blazes, believed to have been caused by lightning, are located in Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk and Buryatia. Winds carrying smoke have caused air quality to plummet in Novosibirsk, the largest city in Siberia.In Greenland, the multi-day Sisimiut blaze, first detected on 10 July, came during an unusually warm and dry stretch in which melting on the vast Greenland ice sheet commenced a month earlier than usual.In Alaska, as many as 400 fires have been reported. The climatologist Rick Thomas estimated the total area burned in the state this season as of Wednesday morning at 2.06m acres. Mark Parrington, senior scientist with the Climate Change Service and Atmosphere Monitoring Service for Europe’s Copernicus Earth Observation Programme, described the extent of the smoke as “impressive” and posted an image of a ring of fire and smoke across much of the region.  Thomas Smith, an environmental geographer at the London School of Economics, told USA Today fires of such magnitude have not been seen in the 16-year satellite record. The fires are not merely the result of surface ignition of dry vegetation: in some cases the underlying peat has caught fire. Such fires can last for days or months and produce significant amounts of greenhouse gases. “These are some of the biggest fires on the planet, with a few appearing to be larger than 100,000 hectares,” Smith said. “The amount of [carbon dioxide] emitted from Arctic circle fires in June 2019 is larger than all of the CO₂ released from Arctic circle fires in the same month from 2010 through to 2018 put together.” In June alone, the WMO said, Arctic fires emitted 50 megatonnes of CO₂, equal to Sweden’s total annual emissions.

Arctic wildfires: What's caused huge swathes of flames to spread? - Wildfires are ravaging the Arctic, with areas of northern Siberia, northern Scandinavia, Alaska and Greenland engulfed in flames. Lightning frequently triggers fires in the region but this year they have been worsened by summer temperatures that are higher than average because of climate change.Plumes of smoke from the fires can be seen from space. Mark Parrington, a wildfires expert at the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (Cams), described them as "unprecedented". There are hundreds of fires covering mostly uninhabited regions across eastern Russia, northern Scandinavia, Greenland and Alaska. But smoke is affecting wider surrounding areas, engulfing some places completely. Cities in eastern Russia have noted a significant decrease in air quality since the fires started.  The smoke has reportedly reached Russia's Tyumen region in western Siberia, six time zones away from the fires on the east coast. In June, the fires released an estimated 50 megatonnes of carbon dioxide - the equivalent of Sweden's annual carbon output, according to Cams.  Arctic fires are common between May and October and wildfires are a natural part of an ecosystem, offering some benefits for the environment, according to the Alaska Centers website. But the intensity of these fires, as well as the large area they have taken up, make these unusual."It is unusual to see fires of this scale and duration at such high latitudes in June," said Mr Parrington. "But temperatures in the Arctic have been increasing at a much faster rate than the global average, and warmer conditions encourage fires to grow and persist once they have been ignited."Extremely dry ground and hotter than average temperatures, combined with heat lightning and strong winds, have caused the fires to spread aggressively.  The burning has been sustained by the forest ground, which consists of exposed, thawed, dried peat - a substance with high carbon content.  Global satellites are now tracking a swathe of new and ongoing wildfires within the Arctic Circle. The conditions were laid in June, the hottest June for the planet yet observed in the instrumented era.  The fires are releasing copious volumes of previously stored carbon dioxide and methane - carbon stocks that have in some cases been held in the ground for thousands of years.  Scientists say what we're seeing is evidence of the kind of feedbacks we should expect in a warmer world, where increased concentrations of greenhouse gases drive more warming, which then begets the conditions that release yet more carbon into the atmosphere.  A lot of the particulate matter from these fires will eventually come to settle on ice surfaces further north, darkening them and thus accelerating melting.

Russian army ordered to tackle massive wildfires  Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the army to help tackle massive wildfires raging in Siberia and other regions in the east. The decision was taken after Mr Putin was briefed on the growing crisis by the head of the emergencies ministry.About three million hectares (7.4 million acres) have been affected, in what Greenpeace is describing as an "ecological catastrophe".Many local residents say not enough is being done to tackle the fires. More than 700,000 people have signed a petition calling for tougher action and for an emergency to be declared across the vast Siberia region.There has been widespread anger after comments by emergencies officials that they are not planning to tackle wildfires in remote uninhabited areas because there is no direct threat to people. On Wednesday, President Putin ordered service personnel of the defence ministry to join in the firefighting efforts in Siberia. Ten planes and 10 helicopters with firefighting equipment are being deployed in the region.

Trump Calls Putin To Offer Help Battling Siberian Fires - U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to help Russia battle widespread forest fires in Siberia as he seeks to repair Washington’s fractious relationship with Moscow. Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin to make the offer, the Kremlin said on its website. Putin expressed his “sincere gratitude” to Trump for the concern and said he may accept the offer if the situation demands it. Forest fires have been raging for several days across vast areas of Siberia, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Russia has declared a national emergency in five Siberian regions and deployed the military to help battle the blazes. Putin highlighted the call by Trump as a guarantee that the United States and Russia will someday be able to restore full relations. The two leaders agreed to continue to speak by phone and meet in person. The phone call came two days ahead of the official U.S. withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia. Trump "expressed concern over the vast wildfires afflicting Siberia," a brief White House statement said. "The leaders also discussed trade between the two countries."

Greenland Is Melting Away Before Our Eyes - Amid an ongoing heat wave, new data show the Greenland ice sheet is in the middle of its biggest melt season in recorded history. It’s the latest worrying signal climate change is accelerating far beyond the worst fears of even climate scientists.The record-setting heat wave that sweltered northern Europe last week has moved north over the critically vulnerable Greenland ice sheet, triggering temperatures this week that are as much as 25 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. Weather models indicate Tuesday’s temperature may have surpassed 75 degrees Fahrenheit in some regions of Greenland, and a weather balloon launched near the capital Nuuk measured all-time record warmth just above the surface. That heat wave is still intensifying, and is expected to peak on Thursday with the biggest single-day melt ever recorded in Greenland. On August 1 alone, more than 12 billion tons of water will permanently melt away from the ice sheet and find its way down to the ocean, irreversibly raising sea levels globally. A tweet from the Danish Meteorological Institute, the official weather service of Greenland, said “almost all the ice sheet, including Summit” measurably melted on Tuesday. According to a preliminary estimate, that melt covered 87 percent of the ice sheet’s surface, which would be the second-biggest melt day in Greenland’s recorded history. Separate weather monitoring equipment at Summit Camp at the top of the 10,000-foot-thick Greenland ice sheet confirmed the temperaturebriefly reached the melting point. Downhill, meltwater was seen dramatically streaming off the edge of the ice sheet in massive waterfalls. Climate scientist Irina Overeem, who placed a meltwater monitoring station in western Greenland eight years ago, recorded a dramatic video of a rushing torrent of water. In a comment posted on Twitter, she said “I have my fingers crossed for it not being washed away.” In an email to Rolling Stone, Overeem described the nature of life in Greenland these days: After recording that video, she spotted a warning of the major glacial water runoff on the announcement board of the main supermarket in the capital city. A similar glacial flood in 2012 was so intense it washed away bridge.

Greenland is melting in a heatwave. That's everyone's problem --Extreme heat bowled over Europe last week, smashing records in its wake. Now, the heatwave that started in the Sahara has rolled into Greenland -- where more records are expected to crumble in the coming days.That means the heatwave is now Greenland's problem, right? Not quite. When records fall in Greenland, it's everyone's problem. Greenland is home to the world's second-largest ice sheet. And when it melts significantly -- as it is expected to do this year -- there are knock-on effects for sea levels and weather across the globe. What happens in Greenland will be felt across the world.  Box said that this year's melt is flooding the North Atlantic with freshwater, which could affect the weather in northwestern Europe. The result could be stronger storms, he added, citing flooding in the UK in 2015 and 2016. "Whatever happens in Greenland radiates its impact down," he said. It will still be some time before the full "meltiness" of 2019 is measured. But it's already poised to rival the proportions of 2012 -- and we haven't even reached the end of summer.In July alone, Greenland's ice sheet lost 160 billion tons of ice, according to Clare Nullis, spokeswoman for the UN World Meteorological Organization. That's roughly the equivalent of 64 million Olympic-sized swimming pools, she told reporters on Friday. One of the most remarkable things about the 2019 heatwave is not just the number of records it broke across Europe -- but the margin by which it did so, she said. "Normally when you get a temperature record broken, it's by a fraction of a degree," said Nullis. "What we saw yesterday was records being broken by two, three, four degrees -- it was absolutely incredible."

Warm Water Is Melting Glaciers 100 Times Faster Than We Thought -- According to a new study, scientists have been estimating the impact of a critical aspect of glacier melt all wrong, and in fact it's 100 times worse than previously believed. This finding has implications for our understanding of sea level rise as a result of climate change, which threatens to flood islands and coastal cities and displace millions of people.  In a paper published in Science on Thursday, researchers from the University of Oregon took a look at how the LeConte Glacier in Alaska was melting underwater. Rather than rely on models to estimate the rate of underwater melt—when warm ocean water causes the underside of a glacier to melt—they took direct measurements. According to their findings, the underwater melt rate of the glacier was 100 times faster than the models predicted. Melting underwater 100 times faster doesn’t mean that the glaciers are retreating overall at the same rate, however. For these Alaskan glaciers, losing mass is a combination of surface melting, icebergs breaking off, and underwater melting. However, co-author Rebecca Jackson said, underwater melting accelerates the process of glacial melting, a process that scientists are only beginning to understand and quantify.  “The real importance of the underwater melting is that it’s the spark that accelerates the retreat, it creates a feedback loop,” Because we didn’t fully understand it, this feedback loop hasn’t been readily factored into our projections of sea level rise caused by melting glaciers.

US Eyeing Militarization of Antarctic as Well as Arctic — A top U.S. military general said Tuesday that the country will be looking at militarizing the Antarctic just as it has the Arctic.Air Force general Charles Brown, commander of Pacific Air Force, made the remarks in an address at The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Virginia.Brown pointed to moves already made by Russia and China, a self-declared “near-Arctic state,” and noted both nations “have a presence in the Antarctic right now” as well as the Arctic. At several points, Brown mentioned 2048, which is set to be a key moment for the Antarctic—a region “within increasingly convenient reach“—because it’s when the Antarctic Treaty can go under review.Brown called the Arctic “kind of a precursor to the way I look at the Antarctic.” He continued, “The capabilities we have in the Arctic are the same capabilities we probably want to have in the Antarctic.”He added that icebreakers were a lacking capability—”Russia has much more than we do.” And, because the U.S. military will still need the few it has to operate in the Arctic, “we may need more” to bring them to Antarctica.

Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months - Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"?Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges.Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year.The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017 "The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time. "I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently. The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that are due to take place between now and the end of 2020.   One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C. Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5.

Trump campaign calls Democratic environmental plans 'reckless and dangerous' - The Hill - President Trump's reelection campaign released a statement Thursday in which campaign manager Brad Parscale called Democratic environmental plans "reckless and dangerous." The statement, released after two days of Democratic debates in which climate change was addressed by many candidates, did not name any particular candidate or plan. “Democrats will destroy the economy and kill millions of jobs in states across the country with their vendetta against coal, oil, and natural gas," Parscale said. "Their radical plan to eliminate those industries will devastate workers in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado, and elsewhere." "Jobs gone, auto and manufacturing industries crushed, lives ruined," he added. "Reckless and dangerous.” Many of the 2020 Democratic candidates have released plans to tackle climate change. Front-runner Joe Biden has proposed a plan that includes achieving "a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions" by 2050 and taking "action against fossil fuel companies and other polluters." The former vice president defended his plan Wednesday night against criticism from Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who called it “middling” and "just too late.” Other candidates' environmental plans include Sen. Elizabeth Warren's (D-Mass.) proposed $2 trillion investment in clean energy technology and Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) call to ban fracking and new fossil fuel infrastructure.

Democrats swore off donations from lobbyists and fossil fuel execs. But some are skirting their own rules. -- Among Sen. Cory Booker’s donors to his presidential campaign is a vice president of a leading pharmaceutical company. The senior vice president of Comcast who oversees the company’s lobbying efforts hosted a fundraiser for former vice president Joe Biden. An oil company development and finance manager remains one of former congressman Beto O’Rourke’s most generous donors, including to his presidential campaign. These Democratic presidential hopefuls accepted these contributions, even though they had rejected the help of fossil fuel, pharmaceutical and lobbying industries. According to their campaigns, they did nothing wrong, because their pledges cover only a small group of high-level executives and registered lobbyists. But critics see something darker: a willingness by campaigns to bend their own rules, allowing money and influence to seep in. Booker (D-N.J.), Biden and O’Rourke are not alone. Every Democratic primary candidate this year has sworn off financial support from certain industries despised by the Democratic base, a reaction to increasing skepticism among voters of the influence of special interests on politics.  Yet federal filings show campaigns have accepted plenty of money from influential donors in those industries — as long as the donor’s job title falls outside the narrow, and at times technical, definitions in candidates’ pledges.Such donations underscore how campaigns are navigating the expectations of voters and activists while working to draw tens of millions to survive a crowded and lengthy primary. But critics say these contributions show that candidates have taken symbolic pledges with arbitrary definitions.

Carbon Dividends: A Plan for Earth’s Survival that Can Survive U.S. Politics? Interview By Lynn Parramore, Institute for New Economic Thinking... Every day it becomes clearer that we have to break our addiction to extracting dirty stuff from the ground to burn for energy. But how to pull it off without triggering political and economic chaos? Economist James K. Boyce, a senior fellow at the Political Economy Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is the author of a new book exploring that question, The Case for Carbon Dividends. In a conversation with the Institute for New Economic Thinking, he outlines a plan that could not only reduce carbon emissions, but help bridge the gap between the rich and the rest. And it might even survive the political system.

Climate Equity: What Is It? - While action against climate change languishes, the rhetoric keeps getting more intense.  For several years now it hasn’t been enough to demand climate policy; we need climate justice.  We will not only eliminate fossil fuels in a decade or three, we will solve the problems of poverty and discrimination, and all in a single political package.  It sounds good, but what does it mean? You might look for an answer in new legislation introduced by AOC and Kamala Harris, the Climate Equity Act.  As reported yesterday, it establishes a federal Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Accountability, whose job would be to evaluate all proposed regulations according to their impact on low income communities.  No doubt this would bring more attention to issues at the intersection of green politics and social justice, which is all to the good, but creating new layers of oversight still doesn’t answer the question, what is climate justice? Is justice about taking care of, say, the bottom 20% of the income distribution?  The bottom half?  Some other number?  And what counts as an impact? The first thing to notice is that, by limiting matters of justice to low income communities, the bill reinforces a politics that divides the world into the socially excluded, the poorest and most vulnerable, on the one hand and everyone else on the other.  The majority of voters are effectively enlisted as allies of those at the bottom.  This is the consequence of drawing the line where they do.  A very different politics was proposed by Occupy, placing 99% of us in one camp and the top 1% in the other.  The second thing is, again as reported, the bill does not specify what impacts are critical or what criteria should be applied to them; it is a plan to have a plan.  Presumably the justice accountability specialists will know how to do this, which is useful since, apparently, we are still debating it. The limitations of AOC-Harris become clearer when you consider what the centerpiece of any meaningful climate policy has to be: suppressing the use of fossil fuels, which will entail putting a steep price on them.    We are talking hundreds of dollars per metric ton of carbon, which translates to several dollars per gallon of gas at the pump and similar added costs for heating, electricity and other energy uses and sources.  Will this have a devastating effect on low income communities?  Absolutely, and it will be nearly as unbearable for everyone below the top fifth or so.    This is not everything a carbon policy has to do, but it is the one part that is non-optional.  It does not single out low income communities for protection, however, and one could argue that every dollar that goes to someone in the middle of the distribution in the form of a rebate is one less dollar for those near the bottom.  If climate justice is simply about that bottom tier, the politics of AOC-Harris are deeply misguided.  On the other hand, we can avoid a lot of superfluous bureaucracy by simply insisting that all, or close to all, carbon revenues be returned to those who pay them in higher energy prices, and that this be done according to a progressive formula like equal lump sums.  That would mean we would stop beating around the bush when it comes to identifying policy impacts and adopt a majoritarian conception of social justice.

Can we avert a climate change apocalypse by hacking the planet's atmosphere? And should we? -Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the most researched of a suite of technologies aimed at cooling the Earth known as "solar geoengineering".Other forms of geoengineering aim to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere — using anything from fans t - o forests.SAI was inspired by the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions such as the 1991 explosion of Mount Pinotubo.Volcanic eruptions shoot sulfur dioxide up into the stratosphere where it forms tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that float around the globe for a year or two acting like tiny mirrors to reflect sunlight. It's a last-ditch effort to save the world from dangerous warming because we haven't been able to get our greenhouse emissions under control.You might think this giant planetary sunshade sounds far-fetched, but some scientists starting to research this technology think we may well need such "a brutally ugly technical fix".However others argue that such a speculative technology — known as "stratospheric aerosol injection" —poses even greater risks than climate change itself. (Supplied: Extinction Rebellion)Indeed, this technology was listed in a 2018 Global Catastrophic Risks report on the major threats against humanity.But the report also listed climate change. And three years after the historic Paris climate agreement was signed we face an uphill battle to stop the world from dangerous warming. So, could creating a global sunshade be used to avert a climate change disaster or make things worse?

China Is On Track To Beat Its Peak-Emissions Pledge In the past 20 years, China has become a key player for global greenhouse gas emissions. Due to its large population, rapid economic development launched it into position as the top-emitting nation, despite having per-capita emissions that are about half those of the United States. Many Western countries have had roughly stable emissions levels, but China's have still been rising. This means that China's future trajectory will have a huge influence on the global trajectory. China's pledge, submitted as part of the international 2015 Paris Agreement, was to ensure its emissions peaked and stabilized before the end of the deal’s window in 2030. This is no small feat considering that the country's emissions had more than doubled in the last 10 years or so. Of course, that could include everything from a 2016 peak to a 2029 peak, and a lot of effort has gone into analyzing emissions trends in Chinese industry and electrical generation. A new study led by Haikun Wang, Xi Lu, and Yu Deng doesn't look directly at industry or the grid. Instead, it examines the relationship between economic growth and emissions to project that China's should peak in the early 2020s. The analysis uses data from 50 Chinese cities for a representative sampling of the factors at work across the country. The cities combine to account for about 35% of national emissions, 30% of the population, and 50% of total gross domestic product (GDP). These cities vary widely, from types of industry to affluence to sources of power on the local grid. But the researchers see evidence that these metropolises follow an economic relationship known as the environmental Kuznets curve—emissions per capita stops increasing once a certain GDP per capita is reached. The idea is basically that dirty growth eventually provides the resources to switch to cleaner options. After adjusting for things like location (whether a city's electricity is supplied mainly by coal or by nuclear and renewables) and the population density of cities of different sizes, the researchers calculated that emissions reach a peak when per-capita emissions hit about 10 tons of CO₂ per year. That happens at an average per-capita GDP of US$21,000.

Does Extinction Rebellion have the solution to the climate crisis? --The success of Extinction Rebellion, a British campaign of civil disobedience aimed at addressing the climate crisis, has been something to behold. In April, the group, which was formally launched only last October, blocked Waterloo Bridge, which spans the Thames, for more than a week. Across London, activists glued themselves to buildings, climbed on trains, chained themselves to company headquarters, and occupied key intersections, leading to some thousand arrests and messages of support from around the world. The Metropolitan Police commissioner, Cressida Dick, said that she had never encountered a protest like it. By the end of the month, Extinction Rebellion activists were meeting with Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, and on May 1st, in accordance with one of their demands, Members of Parliament declared a climate and environment emergency, becoming the first national legislature to do so. In June, M.P.s agreed to another Extinction Rebellion request: to convene a citizens’ assembly, made up of a representative sample of the British population, to discuss the climate crisis. Although the assembly’s recommendations will not be legally binding, as the protesters wished, Extinction Rebellion’s language and its policy agenda have moved into the mainstream at remarkable speed.

England Region to Place UN Accredited Climate Crisis Teacher in Every State School - The newly elected mayor of England's northernmost region wants to put a UN-accredited climate change teacher in every state funded primary and secondary school, making his region the first in the world to do so, as the London Economic reported.Jamie Driscoll, a Labour-party politician, declared a climate emergency on his first day in office after he was elected to be the first mayor of the North of Tyne Combined Authority in May. Since then has pushed to make sure environmental education is taught at every school in his region, which includes Northumberland, Newcastle and North Tyneside in the northeastern corner of the country.Each state-funded school in the combined authority area will have the opportunity to train one member of staff to teach lessons on global warming and the climate crisis, as a UN accredited climate change teacher, meeting an important UN benchmark for sustainable development, according to the North of Tyne Combined Authority's official website."We have partnered with the creators of the eduCCate Global UN CC Teacher Academy, to make sure every school in the North of Tyne has access to a fully-funded teacher training program to get a UN accredited climate change teacher," said Driscoll in a statement on the region's website. "This is our opportunity to be the first region in the world to meet this UN Sustainable Development Goal. It's also a manifest commitment to give every child a world-class environmental education, and to make such progress so soon is fantastic."The course training takes 15-20 hours for teachers to complete. It's online and delves into climate change science, adaptation planning, health, forests, climate change finance and international negotiations, as theGuardian reported. "Anyone below the age of 20 is part of the 'climate generation' living all or most of their lives having to deal with climate change," said Angus Mackay, director of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research, in a press release. "The UN Climate Change Teacher Academy is an excellent idea because it will give children an intuitive understanding of the issues and it is solutions based."

Steel industry to suffer major losses from rising carbon prices and climate regulations, report says - The world’s largest steel corporations are not reducing emissions at the rate required to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, a failure that on average puts 14% of the companies’ potential value at risk, according to a new analysis of corporate earnings profiles. The 20 companies, which together represent 30% of global steel production, are currently expected to reduce emissions by less than 50% by 2050, falling behind the 65% reduction standard set by the International Energy Agency. “Steel represents the most emissions-intensive industry — it’s a huge footprint,” said Luke Fletcher, a senior analyst at CDP, the international nonprofit that wrote the new report and works with companies to disclose financial risks of climate change on their bottom line. The report illustrates the failure of polluting corporations to keep up with climate regulations and the financial losses they could suffer as carbon prices rise and the planet warms. For decades, the steel sector has produced essential metal for construction, cars and food cans. However, it’s also responsible for 7% to 9% of all direct fossil fuel emissions, according to the World Steel Association, and is currently the largest industrial source of climate pollution. Under a 2 degrees Celsius scenario where global carbon prices rise to $100 per metric ton by 2040, the companies on average face a 14% hit risk, ranging from 2.5% to 30% for individual companies, the report shows. Leaders at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have pushed governments to implement higher prices on carbon in order to force fossil fuel polluters to pay for the carbon dioxide they emit into the atmosphere. Cutting emissions alone, they say, is not enough to effectively combat climate change.

With new study, critics push back on PJM’s proposed 10-hour storage rule - A proposal by the nation’s largest grid operator could make it much tougher for batteries to make inroads against fossil fuel peaker plants.PJM Interconnection, whose territory spans from Illinois to New Jersey, is preparing to open its long-range capacity market to energy storage projects. The change will allow battery owners to earn extra payments in exchange for guarantees the grid operator can tap into them at a future date.Under the rules, though, PJM would only recognize the full value of batteries that can supply continuous power for 10 or more hours. That’s drawn criticism from clean energy and storage industry groups who say the 10-hour threshold is “unworkable, arbitrary and discriminatory” against the industry.Those groups are now armed with a new study, commissioned by the Energy Storage Association and the Natural Resources Defense Council. It makes the case that smaller duration batteries provide the same reliability benefits as “fully dispatchable resources” such as fossil fuel power plants. t’s the latest development in a debate over the functioning of PJM’s capacity market. (PJM has recently been criticized for other proposed capacity market changes that clean energy advocates also say prioritize fossil fuels.)  PJM proposed the rule as part of a required filing to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission showing how it will increase access for energy storage in its markets. Storage already has a small presence in PJM’s markets, but the commission’s order, which directs all the country’s grid operators to plan for storage, will likely ramp that presence up.

Texas ranks first in U.S.-installed wind capacity and number of turbines - As of the beginning of 2019, 41 states had at least one installed wind turbine. Of these 41 states, Texas had the largest number of turbines, with more than 13,000, and the most installed wind capacity, at 24.2 gigawatts (GW). As wind technology has advanced, turbines have grown larger in the United States, and the capacity of individual turbines has increased with size. States where wind adoption occurred early, such as California, have a high number of turbines relative to their wind generation capacity compared with states where wind was adopted later, such as Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Illinois. Based on data in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Electric Generator Inventory, the earliest U.S. wind turbines still operating were installed in California in July 1975. Despite having the second most installed wind turbines, California accounts for only 6.1 GW of total installed capacity, fourth among the states. In 2018, California reduced its number of turbines but still increased its wind capacity by repowering some turbines to improve their efficiency. Although California has the oldest operable turbine (44 years), Tennessee has, on average, the oldest operating wind turbines, with an average project age of 17 years. California, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Arkansas round out the top five states in terms of oldest project ages, from an average 16 years old in California to an average 12 years old in Arkansas. Wind turbine hub heights have increased over time because turbine blades have gotten longer. Turbines with longer blades and a greater rotor diameter typically have higher nameplate capacity. Older turbines, such as those in California or Tennessee, generally are shorter and have shorter blades than newer turbines, which have higher hub heights to accommodate longer blades.

Customers Sue Over California Wildfire Liability Law - California rapidly passed a new law earlier this month that aims to strike a balance between guarding the state’s investor-owned utilities against insurmountable liability costs from wildfires while also protecting fire victims and ratepayers from skyrocketing costs.  The new statute – AB 1054 – has come under legal fire, with two ratepayers filing a lawsuit last week deeming the measure unconstitutional because it forces utility customers to pay into a fund that helps companies pay off their wildfire-related liabilities and costs. With the climate crisis making catastrophic fires more likely, the question of who ultimately pays for the damage becomes even more complicated.  Currently the costs are borne by three different parties – the utility companies that often spark the fires with their equipment, the insurance companies that absorb the losses, and taxpayers. All three are increasingly strained. One utility company is already bankrupt, insurers are refusing to renew policies in the riskiest areas, and the public is feeling the pinch with higher taxes, insurance premiums and utility rates.  “The challenge is the losses are going to happen regardless. Someone has to pay,”  “We can try to mitigate the losses. There are strategies that will mitigate and lessen some of these costs but they’re not going to solve the problem.”  The new law, AB 1054, was passed as an urgent matter by the state and is intended to help stabilize utility companies facing crippling wildfire liabilities. Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), which filed for bankruptcy in January, reported $30 billion in liabilities from the 2017 and 2018 wildfires that killed more than a hundred people and burned hundreds of thousands of acres. PG&E announced plans to reorganize under Chapter 11 and to bring in fresh leadership with a new board of directors and new CEO. But the company, still facing immediate financial and legal woes, has also pushed for help from state lawmakers. The state last year passed legislation alleviating PG&E’s liability burden for the 2017 fires across the northern wine region. Under that law, PG&E is allowed to pass on much of the damage costs to ratepayers. 

Carmakers and California Agree on Emissions Rules - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Four major carmakers – BMW, Ford, Honda, and Volkswagen – agreed last week to comply “voluntarily” with tougher California state emissions rules. These carmakers account for 30% of the global car market, according to The Verge, Major automakers buck Trump’s emissions rollback by signing deal with California.As I’ve written previously, the Trump Administration was on a collision course with the state over its August 2018 plans to rollback standards previously due to come into force in 2021 (see Trump Regulators and California on Collision Course on Rolling Back Fuel Efficiency Standards).As the Wall Street Journal reports in Auto Makers Agree to Stricter California Tailpipe-Emissions Standards: The Trump administration last year proposed easing Obama-era fuel-economy standards by freezing them at the 2020 levels, or around 37 miles a gallon, through 2026. The current rules, implemented in 2012, call for increases in fuel economy of around 5% annually through mid-decade, to a level of 46.7 miles a gallon.The Feds and California had been engaged in negotiations to agree a compromise, but those talks collapsed in February, according to an Ars Technica report, Car makers, California agree to emissions rules Trump admin is trying to kill. The California standards with which the four carmakers have now agreed to comply are looser than the rules that were supposed to come into effect in 2021, but tighter than the proposed Trump rollback.  According to a statement released last week by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), California and major automakers reach groundbreaking framework agreement on clean emission standards: The terms of the framework will deliver the same greenhouse gas reductions in five years as the original Obama standards would have achieved in four. This provides a path forward that allows California and other states to meet their climate and clean air goals, and maintains a national approach for participating automakers who will sell these cleaner cars nationwide. The framework also supports the long-term electrification goals of California and the carmakers.

Lithium Industry Buildup Is Outracing the Electric-Car Boom - Lithium miners are bulking up for a booming future when electric cars go mainstream. But speed bumps loom, with prices tumbling on a burst of new production and demand growth slowing in China. Between mid-2015 and mid-2018, prices for lithium, the soft, silvery-white metal crucial for rechargeable batteries, almost tripled as the world’s fleet of electric vehicles hit the 5 million mark, and the auto industry began to fret over the supply of raw materials. That sparked the opening of six lithium mines in Australia since 2017 as companies raced to gain from an evolving technology. But while the EV boom is coming, it isn’t here yet. Sales growth is slowing in China, the top market, and the drive to fill the battery supply chain has cooled. The result: A 30% price plunge for lithium that’s spurring concern over where the bottom may lie. “The latest EV data did reveal slowing growth, inferring that on top of excess supply, demand is now a problem,” Vivienne Lloyd and other analysts at Macquarie Capital Ltd. wrote in a report this month. “The key interest for investors should be who is likely to survive.” On Monday, shares were largely down for lithium producers worldwide. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Albemarle Corp. fell 1% at 10:06 a.m. in New York trading, while Philadelphia-based Livent Corp. slipped 0.9%. The American depository receipts of Santiago-based Soc. Quimica y Minera de Chile SA fell 0.8%, while in Australia, Pilbara Minerals Ltd. fell 2.1% and Galaxy Resources Ltd. dropped 1.8%. Mineral Resources Ltd. declined 2.6% after it confirmed the price for material from its Mt Marion mine will fall this quarter. In the first quarter of 2019, sales of electric vehicles in China, the largest market for EVs, grew by about 90% compared with a year earlier. While that sounds impressive, it’s half the growth seen between 2017 and 2018, according to Nikolas Soulopoulos at BloombergNEF in London. Meanwhile, lithium output in Australia, the world’s leading producer, is expected to rise about 23% over the next two years. And last month, the mining minister for No. 2 Chile, Baldo Prokurica, said the current administration was seeking to double that country’s production within four years. 

Why Consumers Aren’t Buying Electric Cars - Enthusiasm among drivers is lacking about autonomous vehicles and even electric cars, J.D. Power’s latest Mobility Confidence Index has revealed.The results of the survey would be surprising—and bordering on shocking–for the proponents ofEVs and all the headline space these vehicles are getting, with analyst forecasts for their adoption overwhelmingly optimistic. Unlike them, consumers are not as optimistic about the future of plug-in cars and self-driving vehicles.According to the survey, electric cars scored a mobility confidence index reading of 55 on a scale of 100. Self-driving cars scored even lower, at 36 points, which would hardly be a surprise since this technology has yet to mature, and developing trust in it would be a long process.“Out of the box, these scores are not encouraging,” said J.D. Power’s executive director of Driver Interaction & Human Machine Interface Research. “As automakers head down the developmental road to self-driving vehicles and greater electrification, it’s important to know if consumers are on the same road—and headed in the same direction. That doesn’t seem to be the case right now. Manufacturers need to learn where consumers are in terms of comprehending and accepting new mobility technologies—and what needs to be done.”Indeed, the results are worrying, especially for EVs which have been hailed as the drivers of a transport revolution. According to the survey, there are still a lot of people who wouldn’t buy an EV: just 39 percent said they would buy one. Even more people don’t believe EVs are as reliable as ICE cars: 51 percent. One thing the majority of respondents in the survey were positive about in EVswas their beneficial effect on the environment. Among the top problems noted by respondents were the length of time it takes an EV to charge and the length of its range. According to the majority, the former needs to be shortened and the latter extended before they would consider buying an electric vehicle.

$287B Transportation Bill Would Subsidize AltFuel Stations  - The newly introduced America's Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2019 would provide grants for electric, natural gas and hydrogen fueling stations. On Monday a bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced the America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act of 2019 (ATIA), which authorizes $287 billion in transportation funding over five years and includes $1 billion to provide grants for electric, natural gas and hydrogen fueling stations. The legislation – introduced by U.S. Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) – is the largest highway legislation in history, according to a written statement from the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW). Among its “Climate Change” provisions in this section-by-section breakdown of the legislation, ATIA would create a competitive grant program to support deploying alternative fuel vehicle charging and fueling infrastructure for drivers of electric, hydrogen and natural gas vehicles. It would allocate the following amounts each fiscal year from the federal Highway Trust Fund, which is financed by federal fuel taxes and related excise taxes:

• Fiscal 2021: $100 million
• Fiscal 2022: $100 million
• Fiscal 2023: $200 million
• Fiscal 2024: $300 million
• Fiscal 2025: $300 million

“America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act will move our country toward a safer, more connected, efficient and climate-friendly transportation system, one that can endure the test of time and keep up with the demands of a 21st century global economy,” stated Carper. According to Ben Kellison, Wood Mackenzie research director, electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure represents the strongest need within the alternative fuels segment. “With over 1.75 million electric vehicles in North America at the end of 2018, a nearly 60-percent increase from 2017, the need for expanded EV charging infrastructure is greater than that of the other two fuels,” Kellison said in a WoodMac statement emailed to Rigzone.

US Refiners to Learn Fate of Biofuel Waiver Bids-- Some small refiners in the U.S. won’t have much longer to wait to hear if they were exempted from biofuel mandates. The Environmental Protection Agency will start deciding on 2018 waivers in the “next few weeks, month at the most,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said on Monday at an event at Monroe Energy LLC’s Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania. Wheeler’s visit followed an invitation from the state’s Republican Senator Pat Toomey, who is renewing efforts with Democrat Senator Dianne Feinstein to scrap the ethanol requirement in the Renewable Fuel Standard, calling it a “heavy-handed federal mandate” that drives up gas and food prices. The so-called Renewable Fuel Standard has been a source of contention between agriculture and oil refiners, two constituencies that form part of President Donald Trump’s base. The fight over the small refinery exemptions has been particularly contentious. Wheeler’s visit to the refinery comes just a month after Trump toured an Iowa ethanol plant to laud his administration’s move to allow year-round higher sales of the corn-based fuel. In the wake of Wheeler’s visit, the Fueling American Jobs Coalition -- which represents a group of independent refiners -- said it’s critical that the cost of complying with the standard is kept at a reasonable level, as reflected in renewable identification numbers. “Attempts to drive up RINs costs serve only to enrich a handful of traders and middlemen; they do nothing to benefit America’s refineries or farmers,” it said in a statement. At the same time, the Renewable Fuels Association, a Washington-based trade group, extended an invitation for Wheeler to visit an ethanol plant to give him an opportunity to “hear the other side of the story.” Wheeler and Toomey also spoke about bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions LLC’s refinery, which is shutting following a fire last month. “There is interest in that site. One of the ways” to improve the chances of it coming back is to have some certainty in their costs and fix the “arbitrary” price fluctuations in RINs, Toomey said.

THE U.S. CORN ETHANOL BOONDOGGLE: Producing 1 Million Barrels Per Day Of Unprofitable Energy -- The U.S. Corn Ethanol Industry, the largest in the world, is now losing a serious amount of money producing unprofitable biofuel.  While the situation for the ethanol producers was bad in 2018, due to losses stemming from falling margins, it’s even worse this year.  This has prompted one of the country’s largest ethanol producers, ADM – Archer Daniels Midland, to sell some of its ethanol assets with the possibility of spinning off its entire ethanol business operation. While higher corn prices and falling revenues have negatively impacted the U.S. Ethanol Industry recently, that is only a small part of a much bigger problem. You see, the EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) for corn-based ethanol, is so low, there’s virtually little if any, net energy produced from the 16 billion gallons of the biofuel supplied by the U.S. industry last year… or any year prior.   The main problem as I see it is that the leadership today is not providing the market with wise advice on our energy situation.  Instead, we are ignorantly heading over the energy cliff without a care in the world.  Unfortunately, this will end badly  That being said, according to the Alternative Fuels Data Center, U.S. ethanol production has more than doubled from 6.5 billion gallons in 2007 to 15.8 billion gallons in 2017:  As we can see in the chart, the United States is by far the largest ethanol producer (Blue bars), followed by Brazil (Orange bars) at a little more than 7 billion gallons per year.  The United States and Brazil account for 85% of global ethanol production. Now, how much corn does the U.S. Ethanol Industry consume to produce nearly 16 billion gallons of its biofuel per year?  Well, according to the information from the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) and WorldofCorn.com, the Ethanol Industry consumed nearly 40% of the entire U.S. corn crop last year: Of the total 14.4 billion bushels of the U.S. corn crop in 2018, the domestic ethanol industry devoured 5.5 billion bushels or 38% of the entire supply. So, how much land is needed for U.S. ethanol production??  The USDA states that the farming industry harvested 81.7 million acres in 2018 to supply that 14.4 billion bushels of corn.  Thus, the U.S. Ethanol Industry needed 31 million acres of corn just to produce its biofuel last year. How much land is 31 million acres??  That’s nearly 48,500 square miles.  Thus, the Ethanol Industry needed the crop acreage of the following states total area to produce its fuel:

1. Rhode Island
2. Delaware
3. Connecticut
4. New Jersey
5. Massachusetts
6. New Hampshire
7. Vermont
8. Maryland (90%)

Three Dartmouth alumni oppose $200 million biomass plant -— Three prominent scientists who are graduates of Dartmouth College want the school to abandon the $200 million biomass heating plant proposal, saying the project would be bad for the environment. George Woodwell, William Schlesinger and John Sterman sent a letter to the college, seeking to have Dartmouth abandon the centerpiece of the school’s green-energy initiative. Woodwell, who founded the Woods Hole Research Center, said the school needs to become an all-electric campus instead of burning wood-based biomass fuels. “The college can do it, and it can afford to do it,” Woodwell said. Schlesinger is the former dean of Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment, and Sterman is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and director of its Sustainability Initiative. The biomass plant would be used, instead of the current steam plant, to heat the college with hot water. The college right now burns through about 3.5 million gallons of No. 6 fuel oil every year to heat its 120 buildings with steam. The biomass plant is part of President Phil Hanlon’s pledge to reduce Dartmouth’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2025 and 80% by 2050. The new plant is estimated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2025. Woodwell said burning biomass fuel instead of heating oil would not reduce the school’s greenhouse gas emissions, but increase them. Wood is less efficient than oil when it comes to releasing energy, and the school would need to burn through more wood, releasing more carbon. Additionally, Woodwell said, large-scale harvesting of wood products to meet the demands of the school’s heating needs would effectively make wood a nonrenewable energy source

T. Boone Pickens ETF to Replace Crude Stocks With Renewables - Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens’ eponymous fund is swapping out one of its crude investment vehicles for renewables, seeing an opportunity in clean energy as fossil fuels get pummeled in the capital markets. BP Capital Fund Advisors LLC plans to revamp an oil-focused exchange-traded fund with a shift to renewables in mid-August, according to a Friday filing. The underlying index was co-developed by BP Capital’s investment adviser and Morningstar Inc., and is made up of North American companies that are “leaders in the transition to a low-carbon economy,” according to a regulatory filing. “A guy that was a good old-fashioned wildcatter is now saying that solar and wind and geothermal and biomass, that we need to embrace it,” Toby Loftin, the firm’s founder, said in an interview in Houston. “He’s been saying that for 11 years publicly, but this just puts the cherry on top.” BP Capital, a spinoff of Pickens’ shuttered hedge fund, launched the oil ETF just last year, offering investors exposure to companies that benefited from a rise in global crude prices. Brent oil futures are down about 15% in the last year while BP Capital’s ETF, which trades under the ticker BOON, is down almost 20%. Meanwhile, both the WilderHill Clean Energy Index is up 19% in the past 12 months and a Bloomberg Intelligence index of large solar companies is up 1.7%.

Gold Miners Murder Indigenous Leader, Force Villagers in Brazil’s Amazon to Flee - Gold miners invaded indigenous territory in Brazil's Amazon, killing one leader and prompting villagers to flee for safety, The New York Times reported Saturday.  The violence confirms fears that right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro's promises to open protected lands to mining and other extractive industries will have devastating consequences for indigenous communities.  "The president is responsible for this death," opposition Sen. Rodolfe Rodrigues told The New York Times.  Rodrigues received an urgent voice message from leaders of the Wajãpi tribe, who live in the state of Amapá in Northern Brazil.  "They are armed with rifles and other weapons," community leader Jawaruwa Waiãpi said in the message. "We are in danger. You need to send the army to stop them." Federal police arrived in the area Sunday, and both police and the federal prosecutors' office said they would investigate the incident, BBC News reported. The murdered leader was identified as 68-year-old Emyra Wajãpi. His body was found with stab wounds in a river Wednesday, according to Brazil's indigenous rights agency Funai.  Armed miners entered the village of Yvytotõ Friday, occupying a home and prompting the villagers to flee 40 minutes on foot to Mariry village, according to accounts from BBC News and Survival International. The Guardian reported that villagers fled Mariry to the larger village of Aramirã, where shots were fired on Saturday.  "The garimpeiros [miners] invaded the indigenous village and are there until today. They are heavily armed, they have machine guns. That is why we asking for help from the federal police," 26-year-old tribe member Kureni Waiãpi, who lives in Pedra Branca do Amapari, said, as The Guardian reported. "If nothing is done they will start to fight." As the villagers sent their message pleading for help Saturday, Bolsonaro once again expressed his desire to open indigenous reserves to mining, speaking of the resources located in the Raposa Serra do Sol and Yanomami reserves, where mining invasions are common. Rodrigues said the weekend's incident was the first invasion of Waiãpi land in 30 years, according to BBC News.

 Blackjewel Miners Block Railroad To Demand Pay From Bankrupt Coal Company - Some coal miners left without pay by the bankruptcy of coal company Blackjewel LLC are protesting by blocking a coal train in eastern Kentucky. The stand-off began early Monday when five miners blocked the train from leaving the Cumberland, Kentucky, plant. Despite police asking them to leave, miners spent the night blocking the railroad to protest Blackjewel moving coal while miners have yet to be paid. Blackjewel miner Bobby Sexton traveled from Corbin, Kentucky, to support his fellow miners who, like himself, have not received their last paycheck from the company,which filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 1.“We want answers, we want our money, we want paid,” Sexton said. “We’re gonna make a stand.” The standoff follows a tumultuous month for  the country’s sixth-largest coal producer and its 1,700 employees. Blackjewel controls 24 active coal mines and processing and prep facilities in Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia and two large surface mines in Wyoming. The unfolding bankruptcy proceedings have been chaotic. While most of the company’s Wyoming employees have received back wages, the majority of the company’s 1,110 Appalachian miners have not been paid.Appalachian employees are owed nearly $ 11.8 million in payroll and taxes, as well as $1.2 million in employee retirement contributions.

EPA proposal scraps limits on coal plant waste -- The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed scrapping restrictions on arsenic-laden waste from coal-fired power plants. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed lifting some regulations on coal ash, the residue left after burning coal, which is filled with hazardous substances that can leach into the water supply and cause health problems. “I can say without hesitation that this is an extremely dangerous proposal that will do lasting harm to communities near coal ash reuse sites and coal ash waste piles,” said Lisa Evans, senior counsel with Earthjustice. Coal ash is used in a variety of ways, largely as a replacement for soil. It can be used to create level ground for construction projects or sprinkled over landfills as a protective cover. But coal ash has been deemed responsible for contaminating water with arsenic, which is linked with some types of cancer. The latest proposal from the EPA would eliminate restrictions from 2015 that limited coal ash use to 12,400 tons per site. The Trump administration proposal would allow projects to use as much coal ash as they want but would have to file a demonstration that shows the project won’t cause harm if it’s close to certain features like groundwater or wetlands. But Evans said that’s not a realistic safeguard. “That demonstration doesn’t have to be defended to any regulatory agency or be posted for public notice or be written by any engineer or environmental professional,” Evans said. “You’ve got a fairly meaningless demo having to be created.”

Pritzker signs bill to deal with coal ash - Gov. JB Pritzker signed legislation Tuesday aimed at preventing coal ash pollution in Illinois communities. Among other things, the new law prohibits coal ash discharge into the environment and requires Illinois Environmental Protection Agency approval for closure of ash impoundments and guaranteed financial assistance from owners or operators of those impoundments for future closure or maintenance costs. The bill was spearheaded by Sen. Scott Bennett and Rep. Carol Ammons, two Champaign Democrats. Bennett’s district includes coal ash ponds from the now-retired Vermilion Power Station that threaten to contaminate groundwater and the Middle Fork of the Vermilion River. “Coal ash is a public health issue and a pollution issue,” Pritzker said in a statement. “This new law will protect our precious groundwater and rivers from toxic chemicals that can harm our residents.” City Water, Light and Power operates ash ponds near Lake Springfield, the source of Springfield’s drinking water. The utility plans to close them, but it was criticized in a report by several environmental groups last year for not having a closure plan and not being transparent with residents about possible contamination. CWLP called the report misleading and said the ash ponds did not pose a risk to drinking water. It provided a statement Tuesday from chief utility engineer Doug Brown about the effect of the new law on the utility.

Justice signs power plant bill amid controversy over lawsuit - WV MetroNews— The bill to financially relieve a power plant in Pleasants County has been signed by Gov. Jim Justice, but not without controversy. At the bill signing ceremony on Tuesday, Justice denied he knew of the $3 million payout on a coal deal dispute between his company and the power plant’s owner when he supported the $12.5 million tax cut bill for FirstEnergy Solutions.“There’s not one cell in me that knew anything about a lawsuit that existed with my companies,” he said to the crowd. “Maybe I should have known but not one cell.”FirstEnergy Solutions filed for bankruptcyin 2018 and operates over the Pleasants Power Station. The bill cuts the business and occupation tax for that plant.John Judge, the CEO of FirstEnergy Solutions, had previously said the Pleasants Power Station in Willow Island would likely close within the year if it had to continue paying the tax.Justice and his office have said there is no evidence that the federal lawsuit has anything to do with the tax relief signed into law on Tuesday.“Never beyond never. I will never ever do anything for me over the goodness of our state and especially you,” Justice said.Some lawmakers were left questioning their vote after finding out about the lawsuit days after.

 NC, VA meetings to detail Duke Energy coal ash settlement (AP) — Meetings scheduled for next month will explain an agreement between government officials and Duke Energy wrapping up the restoration obligations the country’s largest electricity company faces for a massive spill of burned coal residues five years ago. Federal, North Carolina and Virginia agencies announced Friday two public information sessions to answer questions on Aug. 6 in Danville, Virginia, and Aug. 7 in Eden, North Carolina. The leak of waste Duke Energy stored after burning coal for power coated about 70 miles (110 kilometers) from a power plant on the Dan River, on the border of the two states. Duke Energy spokesman Bill Norton said the company won’t disclose how much it has spent on restoration, which includes buying more than 500 acres to be incorporated into parks by both states.

First nuclear fuel order placed for Vogtle expansion project - Georgia Power has ordered the first nuclear fuel load for Unit 3 at the Vogtle nuclear expansion project. A group led by Georgia Power is spending close to $25 billion adding two new reactor units to the facility. The nuclear fuel order will be the first placed for a newly designed U.S. reactor in more than 30 years, the utility noted. Consisting of 157 fuel assemblies with each measuring 14 feet tall, the fuel will eventually be loaded into the Unit 3 reactor vessel to support startup once the reactor begins operating. After this initial fueling, approximately one third of the total fuel assemblies will be replaced during each refueling outage after the units begin operating, similar to the process used at existing Vogtle units 1 and 2. The fuel order for Vogtle Unit 3 comes just months after the placement of the containment vessel top, which was witnessed by U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, North America's Building Trades Unions President Sean McGarvey, members of Congress and all five members of the Georgia Public Service Commission. The vessel top placement signifies that all modules and large components have been placed inside the unit. In addition, the placement of three low-pressure turbine rotors and the generator rotor inside the Unit 3 turbine building have also been completed. The turbine rotors, weighing approximately 200 tons each and rotating at 1,800 revolutions per minute, will pass steam through the turbine blades to power the generator and supply electricity to the grid. The high-pressure turbine rotor will be installed in the coming weeks.

U.S. Nuclear Arms Plant Files Reported Missing - The U.S. Department of Justice won't turn over 60 boxes of files about a nuclear arms plant in Colorado because it says it can't find the files. The missing documents were presented to a grand jury during a two-year criminal investigation that looked into environmental crimes committed at Rocky Flats, which produced plutonium triggers for the nation's nuclear arsenal throughout the Cold War, as the Denver Post reported.The nuclear plant, just outside of Denver, operated from 1952 to 1989 when it shut down amid the grand jury investigation. While running, it had a history of fires, leaks and spills. Files about the plant, however, have remained a state secret since the grand jury investigation concluded in 1992.The site was cleaned and opened up last year as a national wildlife refuge. But a coalition of environmental activists, former nuclear workers, nearby residents and public health advocates filed a motion in federal court asking that the files be made public, as the Associated Press reported."This is not a quest for guilt," Patricia Mellen, one of the group's attorneys said, as the Associated Pressreported. "We need the information to protect the public. That's the issue."The group will file a motion to ask a federal judge on Wednesday to demand that the U.S. Department of Justice find the missing documents within 30 days. They say the documents could show whether the government did enough to clean up the site before turning part of it into a wildlife refuge and opening it to hikers and bicyclists.

Despite denials, study claims 2017’s mysterious radioactive cloud did come from Russia -In early October 2017 a number of European radiation monitoring bodies began to report spikes in atmospheric radioactivity. The information quickly spread across an informal network of monitoring stations known as the Ring of Five (Ro5). Georg Steinhauser, from the University of Hanover, explains the anomalous nature of this radioactive release was immediately apparent. And, within days, a number of reports from detection laboratories across Europe had verified this considerable, and unusual, event. "The Ro5 members operate monitoring stations on a routine basis, as the surveillance measurements of the national radiation protection authorities," Steinhauser tells New Atlas. "We did not anticipate any release, but we observed it immediately, when it happened."The radioactive isotope being detected was ruthenium-106 (106Ru). Not only was the atmospheric presence of this rare isotope highly unusual, but the fact it was measured in isolation was particularly strange. This suggested the leak came from a very specific source, most likely a nuclear reprocessing plant. "106Ru is a typical signature of nuclear fission waste material (i.e. it is created following the fission of either uranium or plutonium) and is present in spent fuel rods etc," explained Paddy Regan, a nuclear physicist from the University of Surrey, back in late 2017. "If it was a reactor leak or nuclear explosion other radioisotopes would also be present in the 'plume' and from the reports, they are not." At the time, all eyes quickly focused on the Mayak nuclear processing facility in the southern Ural mountains of Russia.  However, Russian authorities stridently denied any leak could have occurred.

Massive Radiation Leak Dwarfing Fukushima Traced To Russian Research Facility - A massive, unexplained cloud of radiation that swept across Europe in 2017 has been traced to one of Russia's largest nuclear facilities, according to NewScientist.  Located between the Volga river and the Ural mountains, the leak coming from the Mayak nuclear development facility released up to 100 times the amount of radiation into the atmosphere as the Fukushima disaster.   Italian scientists were the first to raise the alarm on 2 October, when they noticed a burst of the radioactive ruthenium-106 in the atmosphere. This was quickly corroborated by other monitoring laboratories across Europe. Georg Steinhauser at Leibniz University Hannover in Germany says he was “stunned” when he first noticed the event. Routine surveillance detects several radiation leaks each year, mostly of extremely low levels of radionuclides used in medicine. But this event was different.“The ruthenium-106 was one of a kind. We had never measured anything like this before,” says Steinhauser. -NewScientistAfter the radioactivity was detected, the Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Security in Paris soon concluded that the most likely source of the leak was the Mayak facility - something Russian officials denied at the time, instead suggesting that the source may have been emissions from a radionuclide satellite battery burning up during re-entry.  The team which tracked down the source of the emission ruled out a satellite because no space organizations reported missing any at the time, and the pattern of radiation in the atmosphere didn't match that of a satellite's reentry. The report claims that despite being so much higher than the Fukushima release, the radiation level in the Mayak incident wasn't high enough to impact human health.

Astronomers Stunned After 'City-Killer' Asteroid 'Snuck Up On Us Pretty Quickly' - A giant 'city-killer' asteroid that just whizzed past earth seemingly appeared "out of nowhere" has stunned astronomers after only being discovered last week, days before it flew within around 45,000 miles from earth - or less than 20% of the distance to the moon, according to the Washington Post.  "I was stunned," said Alan Duffy - lead scientist at the Royal Institution of Australia. "This was a true shock."  This asteroid wasn’t one that scientists had been tracking, and it had seemingly appeared from “out of nowhere,” Michael Brown, a Melbourne-based observational astronomer, told The Washington Post. According to data from NASA, the craggy rock was large, an estimated 57 to 130 meters wide (187 to 427 feet), and moving fast along a path that brought it within about 73,000 kilometers (45,000 miles) of Earth. That’s less than one-fifth of the distance to the moon and what Duffy considers “uncomfortably close.” -Washington Post   "It snuck up on us pretty quickly," said Michael Brown, an associate professor at Australia's Monash University School of Physics and Astronomy, adding later "People are only sort of realizing what happened pretty much after it’s already flung past us." The asteroid was discovered by separate astronomy teams in the United States and Brazil - while information on the 'city-killer' was announced only hours before it shot past Earth. "It shook me out my morning complacency," said Brown. "It’s probably the largest asteroid to pass this close to Earth in quite a number of years."

FirstEnergy's Perry Nuclear Power Plant had an Emergency Shutdown Saturday, Still Not in Operation - The nuclear power plant in Perry, Ohio, operated by the FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company (FENOC), had an emergency shutdown Saturday evening. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) event log shows that at 7:29 p.m. on July 27, the reactor automatically shut down after a "main turbine trip." Via the event log's summary, the trip was "not complex," but its cause is still unknown and is being investigated by FENOC. The PR firm handling FirstEnergy's media inquiries told Scene Tuesday that that plant was still shut down. FENOC was "making preparations" for restarting the reactor after the outage, which they say occurred during routine weekly testing. "FirstEnergy Solutions will continue to make the safety of our communities and employees our top priority," read a prepared statement. When Scene inquired how long it would be before the reactor was up and running — hours? days? — a spokeswoman said that because the Perry plant operates in the "competitive market," they do not disclose expected outage lengths.

Nuclear plant law may fuel 2020 ballot fight— Both sides agree that Ohio’s new energy law is a “bailout,” but a fight may lie before voters over who’s being bailed out. Gov. Mike DeWine last week signed House Bill 6 into law to require consumers, beginning in 2021, to pay surcharges on their monthly bills to subsidize operations of two nuclear power plants along Lake Erie, six utility-scale solar fields, and a pair of coal-fired plants in southern Ohio and southeast Indiana. This week, a committee calling itself Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts filed 2,866 signatures to submit proposed petition language to Attorney General Dave Yost for his review. The attorney general has until Aug. 8 to weigh in on the accuracy of the written summary that would be shown to would-be petition signers to put the law on the ballot in November, 2020. The committee refers to it as “bailing out a multi-billion corporation,” referring to FirstEnergy Solutions, the two nuclear plants’ owner. Supporters of the law also call it a bailout — of consumers. They argue that customers will see net savings on their bills as current mandates for renewable power and energy efficiency are scaled back and then ended. That debate is likely to be at the heart of any campaign ahead. But first, once it gets the green light from Mr. Yost, the committee must gather at least 265,774 signatures of registered voters by Oct. 21 that can stand up to review by county boards of election. Because of the lateness in this election year, the question could not appear on the ballot until the general election of 2020. The law would not take effect in the meantime.

New nuke- and coal-friendly Ohio law said to disadvantage gas generation | S&P Global Platts— Opponents of a new law designed to prop up Ohio's imperiled nuclear and coal-fired power plants say it likely will slow construction of new natural gas-fired generation in the state. Register Now Representatives of Ohio's gas industry may be joining other groups opposed to the law, signed last week by Governor Mike DeWine, to launch a statewide referendum effort to reverse it. A newly formed group, Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, will try to launch a statewide petition to get the new law overturned, Gene Pierce, a spokesman for OACB, said in an interview Monday. Pierce said he could not release the names of members of the group, but said it included energy companies, as well as numerous other organizations and individuals opposed to the new law. "Many, many people testified against the bill," Pierce said. "It props up inefficient and expensive nuclear plants and undercuts Ohio's renewable energy industry." The law would slow the growth of gas-fired power generation in the state, to the detriment of ratepayers, he said. "Nuke plants are much more inefficient and expensive than natural gas," Pierce said. The law financially supports two nuclear power plants owned by FirstEnergy Solutions -- the 908-MW Davis-Besse and 1,268-MW Perry plants -- as well as and two Ohio Valley Electric Corp. coal plants -- the 1,300-MW Clifty Creek Generating Station on the Ohio River in Jefferson County, Indiana, and the 1,086-MW Kyger Creek Generating Station in Gallia County, Ohio. The law also scales back the state's existing alternative energy portfolio standard. Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, which advocates for renewable energy resources, said he expects many member companies to join the legislative recall effort. "EPSA is not participating directly but our members are evaluating participation and evaluating what the next steps are going to be," Snitchler said Friday. The American Petroleum Institute, which had opposed the passage of HB 6, has not committed to joining the effort to overturn the new law. However, in a statement following the bill's passage, API Ohio Executive Director Chris Zeigler said the organization was "disappointed in the legislature for passing this corporate bailout for nuclear and coal-burning power plants." He said the law would disadvantage "other electricity generation sources, particularly affordable natural gas."

 Has fracking helped, or harmed eastern Ohio? - Six years ago, oil and gas company Antero Resources showed up in Belmont County, promising money to a struggling community in exchange for rights to drill on residents’ land. Oil and gas companies promised thousands, and in some cases millions, in an area where an estimated 14 percent of county residents live below the federal poverty level.Many in the community signed on.In Barnesville, a village of about 4,000 people, 80 percent of landowners signed leases to allow Antero to drill for natural gas on or under their land. Schools have received an influx of money, and about 150 oil and gas jobs have been created in the county. But now a growing number of residents in eastern Ohio are wondering whether they are paying too high a price for the fracking bonanza.People “just heard money and they were lined up, you know, clear around the (Barnesville) high school. Hundreds and hundreds of people (were) waiting to get in to sign up. That was very alarming to me just to see how blindly everyone embraced the industry,” said Jill Hunkler, a 44-year-old Barnesville resident who says she has suffered health problems because of the drilling.Amid the drilling boom, environmentalists and health experts have descended upon Belmont and neighboring Appalachian counties in an effort to measure the impact of hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, on water quality, air emissions and even emotional health. “The evidence is strengthening and growing,” said Nicole Deziel, an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health, who has traveled to the region for three years to study air and water quality.    More than 4 million Americans live within a mile of unconventional oil and gas wells, which could subject them to toxic releases, according to a study released last year by Deziel and a team of Yale researchers. More than 9 million Americans have drinking water sources within a mile of oil and gas wells.In a study released last year by Yale researchers, 66 Belmont County residents were interviewed about health effects since the oil and gas boom. Many reported respiratory symptoms, general stress and fatigue and headaches, with 92% of people reporting at least one symptom.

Owner of Ohio-Based Oil, Gas Trucking Company Sued Over Health Benefits - The owner of an Ohio-based oil and gas trucking company is being sued by former employees who say he canceled their health insurance without telling them but for months continued to deduct money that ostensibly was going toward the premiums. The 16 plaintiffs named in a complaint filed Monday in Washington County Court of Common Pleas in Pennsylvania were working for Mustang Oilfield Services LLC as of Aug. 1, when the company ended the health, vision and dental coverage it had been offering. The nonunion employees allegedly continued forfeiting money for their share of the insurance premiums. Their attorney, John Egers, said he doesn’t know where that money went instead. “They were taking these deductions, and weren’t applying them to insurance,” said Egers, who’s with the Julian Law Firm in Washington. “We’re going to find out where this money went.” Egers said in an interview the deductions from his clients’ weekly paychecks ranged from $47 to $145. They’re trying to recover that money and other losses they suffered as a result of the insurance cancellation. For example, Egers said many of his clients who received medical bills wouldn’t have had to pay on their own if their coverage had been left in place. Those who couldn’t pay the unexpected bills found themselves on the hook for late fees, too. The complaint also says eight of the former workers are still owed wages despite leaving the company at least two months ago.

Report: State to order cleanup of some injection-well storage pits - Athens NEWS - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has ordered operators of non-operating injection well storage pits to take steps toward draining them of residual fracking wastes and shutting them down. One of them is the Ginsberg Well, an open-air cement storage pit located on Ladd Ridge Road in Athens County’s Alexander Township (see accompanying photo). Roxanne Groff, a member of the Athens County Future Action Network (ACFAN, also known as the Athens County Fracking Action Network), said in a news release announcing the state's move that a declaration of “final victory” won’t happen “until these pits and wells are closed.”However, she added, “Drilling holes and injecting toxic radioactive waste in our ground must stop. We hope that this long overdue ODNR mandate will result in operators shutting down their dangerous waste dumps.”  The oil and gas industry uses injection wells to deposit waste materials from the hydraulic fracturing method of oil and gas drilling deep underground. While the industry says the process is safe if properly handled and regulated, critics say the waste materials are hazardous, with some of them radioactive, and can threaten the health and well-being of nearby residents. The news release recounted a recent meeting that Groff and Teresa Mills, director of the Buckeye Environmental Network, attended with ODNR Deputy Director Brittney Colvin and four representatives of the agency’s Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management.   At that meeting, the release said, Groff and Mills “learned that ODNR has issued a mandate to operators of Ohio injection-well open cement pit ‘temporary storage’ facilities to clean up their pits for inspection by ODNR.” The release noted that environmental activists, including ACFAN, have been exerting pressure on the ODNR for seven years to shut down and plug the no-longer-in-use Ginsberg injection well. The open cement storage pit is within 50 feet of Ladd Ridge Road, and has no fenced barrier other than a chain to keep vehicles out.

Prospects poor for mega petrochemical project east of Athens County - In late 2013, The Athens NEWS published several stories about plans for a major petrochemical plant near Parkersburg, West Virginia, 32 miles east of Athens. The project, an ethane cracker plant complex, raised substantial economic hopes and environmental fears. Project ASCENT now appears on life support, with the company behind the plant, petrochemical producer Braskem, reportedly no longer interested in pursuing the project and instead marketing its 360-acre site along the Ohio River for sale.  That’s a far cry from the reception the project received in late 2013 when West Virginia government and economic development leaders framed it as an economic game-changer of almost unprecedented scale. In a story in the Charleston Daily Mail on Nov. 14, 2013, then West Virginia Commerce Secretary Keith Burdette declared that the ethane cracker project “represents the largest single industrial project in the history of the state of West Virginia.”People concerned about the environmental issues arising from a major ethane cracker facility along the Ohio River raised significant concerns about the proposed complex’s potential to increase water and air pollution in the Ohio River corridor. Athens area anti-fracking advocates also voiced concerns that having the cracker plant so close might finally spur the deep-shale fracking/oil and gas development – and its associated environmental hazards – that had yet to come to Athens County (and still hasn’t made an appearance six years later). According to an article in the Parkersburg News & Sentinel on July 25, West Virginia Development Office Executive Director Mike Graney indicated in a legislative committee meeting two days before that Braskem no longer plans to build the cracker plant and related facilities and is now marketing the property.“It’s my understanding that Braskem is not prepared to move forward on the cracker plant,” Delegate John Kelly, R-Wood said Wednesday (according to the News & Sentinel). “They’re just not going to be able to do it.”

West Virginia Bets Big on Plastics, and on Backing of Trump Administration - West Virginia’s industrial might has faded, but as 2020 approaches, the state has two resources that could be crucial to President Donald Trump as he seeks reelection and tries to make good on his pledge of “American energy dominance” — Republican votes and abundant natural gas. It was a stretch of rural counties along the Ohio River in West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania that form the largest natural gas field in the world and helped Trump win the states in 2016.West Virginia’s elected leaders see the vast reserves as a path to renewed political and economic relevance for the Mountain State, which they envision rivaling the Gulf Coast as a center for processing natural gas and producing plastics.And to make that a reality, the state’s top officials have lined up behind a plan to spend as much as $10 billion to build a mammoth underground storage facility — big enough to hold the U.S. Capitol complex, or 10 million barrels of the liquid byproducts used in plastics manufacturing.  By providing a sizable and stable storehouse for ethane and other so-called gas liquids, the facility would, its proponents say, encourage the expansion of a chemical production corridor that is emerging along the upper Ohio River and would help bring thousands of jobs to a region that has seen its industrial moorings slip away over the past two generations. The prospect of an energy jobs bonanza in a politically vital state stirred the interest of the White House. A senior Energy Department manager has been assigned to work on the project, known as the Appalachian Storage and Trading Hub. In April, the president issued an executive order on energy that encouraged “opportunities, through the federal government or otherwise, to promote economic growth of the Appalachian region, including growth of petrochemical and other industries.” And the president’s newest budget proposal includes funds to study the region’s gas-related industrial potential. But a ProPublica examination has found that the proposed storage facility would be far larger than the region could support and that questions about its cost, its viability and its environmental risks have been overshadowed by a public relations strategy heavy on the politics of jobs and light on the economics of energy policy.

Tug Hill Unlocks the Deep Utica in West Virginia - The management team behind Tug Hill, which helped pioneer the Marcellus shale more than a decade ago, now says it has cracked the code to economic development of the dry gas Utica in West Virginia. The Fort Worth company’s upstream business, THQ Appalachia I LLC, has been quietly building a highly contiguous acreage position in the state’s Panhandle region and deploying innovative technologies for co-development of the Marcellus and Utica, with backing from private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners. These advancements have made THQA the first operator east of the Ohio River to move beyond appraisal into full pad development of the Utica, with “the lowest-breakeven dry gas in the entire Appalachian Basin,” COO Evan Radler told Drillinginfo. At the same time, Tug Hill’s midstream business, XcL Midstream, has been working with Quantum over the last two years to build a greenfield system to link southwest Appalachian gas production to every major long-haul pipeline in the region. It has now brought online its Appalachia Connector system, which will connect with East Coast, Midwest, Midcontinent, Gulf Coast, and West Coast markets. Radler said in an interview that the pipeline offers significant market price optionality and premium netbacks for dry gas production by providing access to nearly every major price point in the region. Multiple companies, including Gulfport Energy, Ascent Resources and Rice Energy (before its acquisition by EQT Corp.), have established producing operations on the Ohio side of the Utica. But the shale deepens as it moves eastward into West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania, driving typical well costs much higher. Some West Virginia operators have been able to achieve well costs of $15-18 million, but most have reported costs exceeding $20 million, according to Tug Hill. Thus, spectacular wells like Range Resources’ 59 MMcf/d Claysville Sportsman’s Club-1 in 2014 and EQT’s 73 MMcf/d Scotts Run 591340 in 2015 have remained isolated occurrences rather than launching full-scale development programs. In contrast, THQA’s use of high-spec walking rigs to drill large multi-well pads and proprietary drilling practices have helped the company achieve well costs of $10.5 million or better, engineering and development SVP Sean Willis told Drillinginfo.

PGC approves energy agreements - The Pennsylvania Board of Game Commissioners approved two five-year and one 10-year non-surface agreements to develop natural gas and oil beneath three state game lands on Tuesday, July 23. Southwestern Energy, with a local office in Lemon Township, would develop natural gas reserves beneath 4,224 acres of State Game Lands 35 in Great Bend and Oakland townships, Susquehanna County. The agreement would result in a two-year option to develop an additional 1,691 acres and a bonus payment of about $6,336,000, as well as future rental and royalty payments. Snyder Brothers Inc., of Kittanning, would develop oil and natural gas reserves under a 10-year agreement beneath 452.3 acres on State Game Lands 247 in North Buffalo Township, Armstrong County. The agreement would result in a bonus payment of about $904,000, as well as future rental and royalty payments. Snyder Brothers Inc. also would develop natural gas reserves beneath 95.81 acres of State Game Lands 287 in Boggs Township, Armstrong County. The agreement would result in a bonus payment of $383,240 for each well bore, as well as future royalty payments. All bonus, rental and royalty payments will be added to the agency’s Game Fund.

Pennsylvania Court Invalidates Natural Gas Site Restoration Rule. What Happens Now? - On July 22, 2019, Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court invalidated a natural gas well site restoration requirement set by the Department of Environmental Protection in 2016, ruling it is unenforceable.    In 2016, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP), through the Environmental Quality Board, updated its regulations related to unconventional natural gas wells (i.e., wells drilled into a shale formation below the base of the Elk Sandstone or its geologic equivalent stratigraphic interval).  The Marcellus Shale Coalition filed suit challenging a number of the new requirements in October 2016, and in the almost three years that have followed, Pennsylvania courts have generally upheld the regulations with some exceptions. On July 22, 2019, the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court issued a 91-page opinion addressing cross motions for summary relief filed by the parties.  The opinion, available here, generally addressed whether the 2016 rules fell within the scope of authority granted to PADEP under state law, and whether the regulations were consistent with state law.   The Commonwealth Court ruled invalid and unenforceable PADEP’s regulation that requires operators to restore sites “to approximate original conditions” within nine months of drilling.  See 25 Pa. Code § 78a.65(a)(1) and (b)(1).  The court ruled that this provision conflicts with the post-drilling site restoration requirements set forth in Pennsylvania’s Oil and Gas Act (frequently referred to as Act 13).   The court reasoned that the General Assembly chose to require prompt post-drilling site restoration (within nine months), while also allowing PADEP to extend the time for post-drilling site restoration, “but only if the well operator agreed to meet a heightened site restoration standard—i.e., [approximate original conditions].” While the court invalidated this requirement, its immediate impact may be limited because the ruling focused only on restoration that occurs within nine months of drilling.  Operators routinely seek an extension of the nine-month restoration period.  Further, the ruling does not impact PADEP’s stormwater control regulations.  This means that operators that restore well sites within nine months of drilling have the flexibility to restore portions of the site not needed for production in any way that ensures compliance with stormwater regulations, even if the restoration results in contours that vary from pre-construction conditions.   The ruling could form the basis for future challenges to the post-production restoration requirement. 

Delaware County pipeline foe thought he’d get PUC information on Mariner East risk. But now he’ll have to fight for it in court - An opponent of the Mariner East project says he will ask an appeals court to order the Public Utility Commission to disclose documents containing its calculations on the effects of an accidental release of natural gas liquids from the pipelines. The PUC last week appealed to Commonwealth Court a decision by the state’s Office of Open Records that said Eric Friedman of Delaware County should get some documents he requested under Pennsylvania’s Right to Know Law. Friedman said he plans to contest the commission’s appeal in court. In a request filed in February, Friedman asked PUC to produce records related to a “blast radius” or “buffer zone” regarding accidents or releases from highly volatile liquids pipelines such as Sunoco’s Mariner East lines. The PUC refused to release the records, saying in part that they contain confidential security information, whose disclosure could jeopardize public safety. Friedman appealed that decision to the open records office, which in late June partially sided with him, saying the PUC had failed to prove that some of the records contain confidential security information, and so they were not exempt from a disclosure requirement in the open records law. The OOR said PUC and Sunoco had failed to produce evidence to support their conclusion that the records were confidential security information. Although the commission produced statements from Paul Metro, the PUC’s head of pipeline safety, asserting the confidentiality of the records, the statements were “conclusory,” which means they are not sufficient to justify exemption from disclosure, the OOR said.

Limited Impacts Seen From MVP Southgate Gas Pipeline Project -- Regulators see minimal environmental impacts from a conduit that is planned to connect to the Mountain Valley Pipeline and deliver natural gas to North Carolina. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission released its draft impact assessment for the MVP Southgate project July 26 for public comment. In its review, the commission said that the project would result in some adverse environmental impacts, but they would be reduced to “less-than-significant levels” with certain recommended adjustments. MVP Southgate would run about 74 miles from southern Virginia to central North Carolina. The conduit would deliver some 375 million cubic feet per day..

Pipeline vital for current and future customers of Roanoke Gas, company says  - Natural gas from a pipeline being built through Southwest Virginia is needed to reliably serve the customers of Roanoke Gas Co. and to meet future demand, the company says. Without drawing from the Mountain Valley Pipeline, company President Paul Nester said in pre-filed testimony with the State Corporation Commission, the utility is concerned that it could not provide gas to all of its customers on the coldest days of the year. The company’s defense of its involvement with the controversial pipeline — made as it proposes a rate increase to the SCC — is also based on providing an energy infrastructure that will help draw new industries to the region. “Southwest Virginia has more than enough constraints on economic growth without its premier MSA [metropolitan statistical area] flat-lined due to a lack of reliable and affordable energy supply,” John Williamson, chairman of the company’s board, wrote in a January letter to Gov. Ralph Northam that was included in nearly 200 pages of documents filed Tuesday with the SCC. “MVP is critical to that adequate energy supply.” The arguments come one month after a staff analysis by the regulatory agency questioned whether the growth of Roanoke Gas’ customer base is strong enough to support an investment by its sister company in the 303-mile pipeline. Roanoke Gas is a subsidiary of RGC Resources. Another subsidiary of the company, RGC Midstream, is a 1% partner in Mountain Valley, a $5 billion project that its partners say will provide a needed supply of gas to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the country.

Federal Court Tosses Atlantic Coast Pipeline's Key Endangered Species Permits -A federal court has thrown out two key permits for the 600-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline. U.S. 4th Circuit Court Chief Judge Robert Gregory said in an opinion issued Friday that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service didn't adhere to its mandate to protect endangered species when it fast-tracked re-issuing two permits to the natural gas project proposed to go through West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. "In fast-tracking its decisions, the agency appears to have lost sight of its mandate under the ESA: 'to protect and conserve endangered and threatened species and their habitats,' " Gregory wrote. In 2018, the 4th Circuit suspended the pipeline’s Incidental Take Statement after it was challenged by environmental groups. That permit defines how much harm may come to endangered species during a project. Following that ruling, and once the formal consultation process began, the agency reissued the permits in 19 days. This is not the first time the court has reprimanded federal agencies for their work issuing permits for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. Last December, the 4th Circuit ruled the U.S. Forest Service improperly granted permits for the pipeline to cross national forest lands. The judge in that case quoted Dr. Suess’ “The Lorax.” The court Friday sided with environmental groups who argued the hastily reissued permits could harm species like the rusty patched bumble bee and Indiana bat. In a statement, Patrick Hunter, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, one of the environmental groups that challenged the permits, praised the ruling. “In its rush to help this pipeline company, the agency failed to protect species on the brink of extinction – its most important duty," he said. "This pipeline would blast through some of the last populations of these rare animals. For the sake of these rare species and its customers’ wallets, it’s time for these utilities to walk away from this badly planned boondoggle.” After a number of regulatory setbacks, construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline has been stalled since December 2018. 

 W.Va. AG Morrisey, 15 other states file brief requesting U.S. Supreme Court to hear, overturn pipeline delay— West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and 15 other state leaders are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn a ruling that stopped construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in February the pipeline cannot continue on its current path, which would result in crossing the Appalachian Trail in Virginia.The pipeline, if completed, would carry natural gas from West Virginia to North Carolina.“The court’s decision was completely wrong,” Morrisey said. “This decision, if it holds, will stand in the way of economic diversification, education and public safety. Continued delays negatively impact the livelihoods of our working-class families and the services they receive.” Other states involved in the brief are Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

PSC Issues 400+ Citations for Gas Pipeline Damages Over Year — A year after taking over enforcement of the state’s call-before-you-dig statute as it relates to natural gas or hazardous liquid lines, the Kentucky Public Service Commission has issued more than 400 citations for violations of the law.The PSC assumed responsibility for enforcing the law on July 14, 2018. Since then, the PSC has received nearly 1,000 reports of excavation-caused damage to natural gas lines in Kentucky. “This level of excavation damage to natural gas lines is unacceptable and poses a significant threat to public safety,” PSC Chairman Michael Schmitt said. “The PSC hopes that consistent enforcement, combined with a comprehensive effort at educating stakeholders and the public, will start reducing the number of dig-in incidents in Kentucky.”Last year’s changes to the underground facility protection statute require operators of natural gas lines to file reports with the PSC on all incidents of excavation damage. The PSC then evaluates the reports, conducts any needed additional investigation, and assesses financial penalties if violations are uncovered. Of the 966 gas line damage reports filed with the PSC through June 29, 557 have been reviewed and closed, with 146 requiring no further action and penalties imposed in 411 cases. The other incidents remain under review. About 44 percent of the violations thus far involve contractors who either failed to call 811 to have gas lines located or didn’t follow the statutory requirements for excavation near gas lines; 42 percent involve natural gas operators who did not locate lines accurately or properly; 8 percent involve people doing excavation on their own property and either not calling 811 or not following proper excavation practices; the remaining 6 percent involve a variety of entities.

Enbridge Pipeline Explodes in Kentucky - Enbridge Inc. reported Thursday morning that it was responding to a rupture and explosion on its Texas Eastern gas pipeline system near Danville in Lincoln County, Ky.The blast occurred at approximately 1 a.m. local time Thursday in the community of Moreland, according to a Lexington CBS-TV affiliate. Citing Lincoln County officials, the media outlet reported at 12:45 p.m. that the explosion claimed one victim and injured five individuals. In addition, it stated that a number of houses had been damaged or destroyed and 75 or more people had been evacuated.“Our teams are coordinating with first responders to secure the site,” Enbridge said in a written statement. “We have isolated the affected line and are working closely with emergency responders to manage the situation. We will provide more information as it becomes available.”A public affairs officer with the Kentucky State Police has posted photographs of the explosion site on Twitter.A National Transportation Safety Board spokesperson confirmed to Rigzone that the agency was evaluating the situation and had not yet determined whether it would send investigators to the site. Enbridge’s Texas Eastern gas pipeline system extends from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast and can transport up to approximately 11.7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas per day, according to a description on the company’s website.

At least 1 killed in possible gas explosion in Kentucky, authorities say – At least one person was killed in a massive explosion in Kentucky's Lincoln County on Thursday in the early morning hours, authorities said.  A 30-inch gas pipeline exploded in the area around 1:30 a.m. local time, causing a tremendous amount of damage, according to officials with Lincoln County Emergency Management.   One person died at the scene and at least five others were transported to a local hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. Multiple people are unaccounted for, officials said.At least six structures caught fire and were destroyed in the blast. About 75 residents were evacuated from the area while firefighters worked to douse the flames, officials said. The explosion occurred in Lincoln County's Moreland community, between Junction City and Hustonvile, according to the Perryville Kentucky Fire Department, which urged the public to steer clear of the scene and to not travel nearby. Witnesses photographed the aftermath of the explosion, which sent a fireball high into the dark sky. Images and video showed bright orange flames and thick clouds of smoke on the horizon. "It was just a big roar and fire going all the way up the sky as far as you can see," a resident told local news station WKYT. "Our windows were shaking really bad, you can hear the ground just moving and tumbling and rolling. Then we got to feeling the heat from the fire, so we got in our vehicle and took out." 

One dead in Kentucky, at least five injured after gas line explosion shoots fireball into sky - One person is dead and at least five were injured in central Kentucky after a gas line ruptured and produced a fireball that could be seen around the region early Thursday.The 30-inch gas line in Lincoln County breached around 150 feet from a mobile home park around 1:40 a.m., Don Gilliam, director of Lincoln County Emergency Management, said early Thursday. One person was killed, at least three were transported to hospitals with injuries, and at least six mobile homes caught fire, Gilliam said. "We still have an active scene," Gilliam said, but added that the fire at the breach site was out.He said when he arrived, flames were around 300 feet in the air. The emergency management agency told residents to steer clear from the Hustonville area.   Emergency officials said the cause of the explosion is under investigation, NBC affiliate WLEX of Lexington reported. The blast caused six structures to catch fire, officials said. It also damaged train tracks that run through the area, officials said, and Norfolk Southern had dozens of railcars backed up awaiting a workaround or fix.Video posted to social media showed what appeared to be a large fireball and flames. Witnesses told WLEX that they heard a loud sound and saw a ball of fire."It felt like an atomic bomb went off," Jerry Sinkhorn told the station."And I knew what it was — it was a gas line," he said. Sue Routin told WLEX that she was woken up by “a big roar and fire going all the way up in the sky as far as you could see.”

An Unusual Development In Natural Gas Markets - Despite the growing importance of environmentalism and the public scrutiny concerning the fossil fuel industry, natural gas has maintained its importance in the global energy mix. Rising power demand and installation of renewables such as wind and solar have strengthened the need for on-demand energy production, for which gas is the only alternative currently. Resource-rich countries are reaping the rewards of an expanding industry with ever-larger volumes being exported. The largest importers of natural gas remain Europe and East Asia due to their large markets and few domestic options. This year, however, the fundamentals of the market have been upset due to unusual developments. Historically the spread between Asian and European gas hubs has been in favour of the former, which has been able to attract more cargoes due to higher prices. A combination of factors is making the task of traders harder as the apparent destination with the highest rewards is becoming less straightforward. Historically, natural gas prices in Asia tended to be higher due to low regional production, a large domestic market, and political decision-making that has favoured LNG over competing sources. The nuclear disaster at Fukushima in Japan led to the shutdown of the country’s nuclear facilities, which increased demand for super-cooled natural gas, making the Asian country the largest importer of LNG. In neighbouring China, the coal-to-gas policy has had a similar effect. Ever larger volumes of LNG are imported to clean the skies over its cities. Another reason for producers preferring the Asian markets over Europe is the inter-basin freight differential between the route East of Suez and West of Suez. The costs of shipping LNG to Europe and returning the vessels are higher than for the eastern way to Asia. Finally, Europe enjoys more alternatives regarding the import of natural gas. Competition between piped and shipped natural gas has a depressing effect on LNG prices as consumers can switch to fixed infrastructure energy resources from Russia, Algeria, and Norway.

Natural Gas Glut Is Crushing US Drillers - The outlook for natural gas producers is not great. They are getting clobbered by low prices today, amid a glut. But the medium- and long-term looks even worse, with renewable energy increasingly taking market share.  The gas industry has drilled itself into this predicament. Gas production continues to ratchet higher, rapidly replenishing inventories, which had plunged to a 15-year low heading into this past winter season. Inventories are still below the five-year average, but have climbed quickly in recent months. If the natural gas industry had hoped that a stunning heat wave sweeping over a large swathe of the East Coast would rescue prices, they are surely now disappointed. Natural gas prices continue to fall, despite the heat, and there is little prospect of a rebound. On Friday, spot natural gas prices fell by another 3 percent, dipping below $2.20/MMBtu.Record production from the Marcellus is one of the main reasons. But oil drillers are also to blame. The frenzied pace of drilling in the Permian – which, to be sure, has been slowing as of late – has produced a wave of natural gas so large that the industry is flaring enormous volumes of gas because of the lack of pipelines. Texas regulators seem unwilling to regulate the rate of flaring over fear of hurting the industry, so the flaring continues.Still, record levels of associated gas production from the Permian are dragging down prices. New midstream capacity later this year from the Gulf Coast Express pipeline will bring more gas to market, adding to supply woes. More pipelines are in the offing for 2020 and 2021.Even the increasing volumes of gas exported overseas is not enough to tighten up the market. “We expect the current oversupply to persist as production growth, mainly associated gas from oil basins, matches LNG export growth over the next year,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. While some of this is not new news, the surprising thing is that the outlook does not seem to improve the further out one looks. There is little reason to expect things to turn around. Gas production is still rising and inventories will be well-stocked next winter. “[T]oo much gas past peak winter keeps pressure on next summer and allows us to maintain our $2.6/MMbtu price projection for the 2020 strip,” Bank of America said.

Natural Gas: are new lows on the horizon?  -We are currently in the heart of the off-season for natural gas demand. The shift from coal-fired power generation to natural gas is increasing the demand for the energy commodity during the hot summer months. At the same time, LNG is now flowing from US ports to consumers around the world via ocean vessels. However, the massive reserves of natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions of the US and technological advances in hydraulic fracking have combined to push output to record levels. Over the recent weeks, Hurricane Barry approached the Louisiana Coast, home to the Henry Hub, the delivery point for NYMEX natural gas futures. The storm did not drive the price of the energy commodity above the critical level of technical resistance at just above the $2.50 per MMBtu level. In the aftermath of the storm, the price dropped. More recently, warmer than average temperatures descended on vast areas of the US, but the increased demand for cooling did not provide any support for the price of natural gas.  The last triple-digit injection into storage in the natural gas market across the US came on the week ending on June 14. The injections have been declining steadily over the weeks that followed. On July 26, the Energy Information Administration reported that stockpiles rose by only 36 billion cubic feet for the week ending on July 19. The latest injection was the lowest since April 5.While the falling rate of injections should have supported the price of natural gas, the futures market declined late last week. As the daily chart shows, August futures fell to a low at $2.165 and closed last Friday at $2.169 per MMBtu. The price closed just 3.5 cents above the June 20 low at $2.134. Hurricane Barry could not even push the price to a level that would have triggered buy stops in the natural gas futures. Rising temperatures and falling stocks did nothing to inject any support into the futures market. When the price of a commodity falls in the face of bullish fundamental events, it tends to be a bearish sign.

Natural Gas Prices Hit New Multi-Year Lows -- Today was the final day of existence for the August natural gas contract, with September taking over as prompt month starting tomorrow. The story today, however, was the setting of new multi-year lows. The August contract rolled off the board down 2.8 cents on the day, settling just over the $2.14 level. Part of the reason for the decline was the continued trend toward cooler medium range weather forecasts over the weekend, a risk that clients were alerted to in Friday afternoon's "Pre-Close" Update. The area of below normal temperatures forecast in the 11-15 day period was more expansive this morning thanks to a large upper level trough projected to move through the eastern half of the nation. This translates into a period of weaker demand for natural gas, as measured by our "Gas-Weighted Degree Days" (GWDDs). The astute reader may notice that demand appears to be rebounding back higher at the end of the forecast period, indicating the chance that this cooler period, much like last week's, will be rather brief with temperatures rebounding quickly in its wake. But with normal temperatures starting to decline from their summer peak, would it be enough to help support natural gas prices even if that is the case? Also complicating matters is the reality that weather is just part of the equation when it comes to price impact.

Hotter Weather Forecasts And Strong Burns Send Natural Gas Prices Much Higher - Weather and fundamentals are tag-teaming to send natural gas prices significantly higher so far today, with the September contract up 9 cents on the day as of this writing. The signs of a rally have been growing since the week started. We began to alert clients back on Monday of the risk for at least a temporary low to be put in, with data unlikely to get any worse, though the background was not yet "bullish" By yesterday afternoon it became clearer that cooler momentum had stopped on the weather side, and stronger burns had improved the fundamentals side, pushing our sentiment to the bullish side. Sure enough, we wound up getting the test of the 2.18 level and then some in the September contract. Weather forecasts moved hotter in the last 24 hours, with both the GEFS and ECMWF models moving more toward an above normal GWDD (demand) regime. The stronger cooling advertised a few days ago has fizzled out. This shows up nicely when looking at the GEFS model for today's 6-10 day forecast compared to what it showed five days ago for the same period. New: Old: While there is still a weak trough passing through the eastern U.S, it is much weaker than the model showed a few days ago, and is followed by hotter conditions across the southern U.S. in the 11-15 day, as illustrated in our forecast. Of course, weather is not the only factor in today's rally. Yesterday's gas burns were the strongest of the summer in absolute terms per our data, despite less heat than what we saw a couple of weeks ago. From a technical perspective, prompt month prices have moved above the 2.18 resistance level, which can now be support, with the next resistance level in the 2.24-2.25 zone.

NYMEX September natural gas settles 3.1 cents lower on bearish storage report — The NYMEX September natural gas futures contract fell Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration announced a larger-than-expected build in storage inventories. The front-month contract settled 3.1 cents lower at $2.202/MMBtu after trading in a $2.187/MMBtu to $2.333/MMBtu range. In addition, the December and January contracts fell 3.2 cents and 2.4 cents to $2.488/MMBtu and $2.617/MMBtu, respectively. The EIA reported an estimated 65 Bcf injection into storage facilities in the week that ended July 26. The consensus expectations of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts were for a 53 Bcf build. The five-year average build was 36.6 Bcf. The cumulative amount of gas in storage at the end of the most recent reporting period was estimated at 2.63 Tcf, a 14.5% surplus to the year-ago level, but a 4.5% deficit to the five-year average of 2.76 Tcf, EIA data show. Looking forward, analyst John Woods of JJ Woods Associates said: "The market is poised to make a bull run. I'm expecting gas to rise on a weekend change as summer isn't over yet." The National Weather Service's most recent eight- to 14-day forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the South, balancing the cooler-than-average temperatures expected in much of the Northeast and Midwest. US demand is expected to total 75.3 Bcf Thursday and to average 73.1 Bcf/d over the next week, before rising to an average of 75.2 Bcd/d in the period eight to 14 days hence, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Dry production is expected to rise from Thursday's expected 88.3 Bcf to an average of 88.8 Bcf/d in the period eight to 14 days out, which could put pressure on prices, Platts Analytics data show.

Shale oil and gas: Destroying capital one well at a time – Recently, the former CEO of the largest shale gas producer in the United States told a roomful of conference goers what any competent financial analysis would have revealed many years ago: the shale oil and gas industry as a whole has been destroying capital since its inception.“The fact is that every time they put the drill bit to the ground, they erode the value of the billions of dollars of previous investments they have made,” said Steve Schlotterbeck, former head of natural gas behemoth EQT, at a petrochemical industry conference. “It’s frankly no wonder that their equity valuations continue to fall dramatically.”But, the real news here is not that the shale oil and gas industry has from its beginning been destroying capital one well at a time. It’s that a major industry insider freed from the constraints of his former job has admitted it.Schlotterbeck calculates that the industry as a whole has destroyed 80 percent of its value since 2008. It turns out that the so-called shale revolution is a revolution as much in investor stupidity as it is in technology, a technology that can’t seem to produce actual industry profits. The former CEO added that there have been 172 bankruptcies among exploration and production companies engaged in the shale oil and gas business just since 2015. Now the significance of this message is as much where it was said as who said it. Schlotterbeck was addressing attendees of the Northeast Petrochemical Exhibition & Conference in Pittsburgh in mid-June. The predominant buzz at the conference was a plan to turn Pennsylvania and Ohio, which sit above large shale gas resources, into a petrochemical and plastics center similar that which exists on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

As Risky Finances Alienate Investors, Fracking Companies Look to Retirement Funds for Cash - The stock markets and banks have become increasing unfriendly places for shale drilling companies as the oil and gas industry has under-performed compared to other parts of the economy. This has left drilling companies hunting for capital to fund continued drilling — and they are increasingly turning to so-called private equity — a category covering both private investors like Warren Buffett and asset managers like pension funds. Drilling companies plan to source 40 percent of their capital for 2019 from private equity funds, according to a recent survey by Haynes and Boone, compared to 26 percent from selling the oil and gas they produce, 21 percent borrowed from banks, and 12 percent in debt and equity from capital markets like Wall Street. Privately held companies like Encino are more opaque than publicly traded oil and gas companies because they generally are not required to make their financial information public. That means there’s little publicly available information about how private shale drilling companies have performed over the past decade. And every shale drilling company has unique financial prospects, based on a broad array of factors that include the amount it spent to acquire drilling rights, its drilling and fracking costs, and the amount of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids it can tap. Encino did not respond to questions sent by DeSmog. “Our assets generate strong cash flow, we have modest debt, and we support our development activities with a robust commodity hedging program,” the company says on its website.Canada’s pension fund praised Encino’s acquisition of Chesapeake Energy’s acreage in Ohio when that deal was announced. “We are pleased to support EAP’s [Encino Acquisition Partners’] acquisition of these highly attractive Utica shale assets, which provides CPPIB with meaningful exposure to a leading North American natural gas play and aligns with the growing focus on energy transition,” said Avik Dey, managing director and head of energy and resources at the CPPIB. Others saw the deal as carrying a significant degree of risk. Moody’s Investor Services rated debt associated with Encino’s Utica deal at B2. “A B2 rating is deep into junk status and means there’s a very significant chance you’ll end up in default,” Axios explains. Moody’s rated the overall probability of default one notch higher at B1.

Perilous trend for combined-cycle gas plants - Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis - Nearly one in seven U.S. combined-cycle power plants fewer than 20 years old are little-used, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.The more than 33,000MW of generating capacity is concentrated in California, Texas and the northeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S., but units are also in places such as Missouri and Wyoming. Some units are being used less because of older designs that leave them less efficient compared to others, while other units are challenged by market conditions that favor zero-emission resources such as solar, wind and batteries.Some combined-cycle units in California are facing additional challenges now that state law targets 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2045.Wholesale power prices in the California ISO market, pushed lower by the growth of solar and zero-emission alternatives, have also made it harder for less-flexible gas plants to earn enough revenues. The 1,028-MW La Paloma Generating plant in Kern County faced bankruptcy in 2016 after running for just 13 years, and it had a capacity factor of 11.8% in 2018. More: 1 in 7 newer combined-cycle plants are little-used, analysis finds

Columbia Gas reaches $143 million settlement for Merrimack Valley explosion (AP) — A series of class action lawsuits stemming from the natural gas explosions in Massachusetts have been settled for $143 million, the utility blamed for the disaster and lawyers for the plaintiffs announced Monday. The settlement is subject to the approval of a judge, according to Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, and its parent NiSource Inc. The explosions and fires in the Merrimack Valley communities of Lawrence, Andover and North Andover on Sept. 13 killed one, injured about 25 other people and damaged or destroyed more than 100 buildings. Many people were forced into temporary shelter and thousands of homes and businesses went without natural gas service for weeks or even months during the winter. “Families suffered for months in the gripping cold. Businesses shuttered, and lives were upended,” Elizabeth Graham, co-lead attorney for the plaintiffs, said in a statement. “To this day, the people most impacted by the explosions are not fully back on their feet, but we believe this settlement is the quickest and most just method to ensure that residents and businesses are made whole again.” The explosions were blamed on an over-pressurization of gas transmission lines during routine replacement. The National Transportation Safety Board is continuing its investigation.

A Storm Brews Over South Portland’s Oil Industry and Fumes From Its Tank Farms - The email arrives on a Wednesday afternoon. "I am writing to let you know that your air quality sample 'grab canister' will be available for pick up," writes the city manager. I instantly feel like I've won the lottery. This is what I have been waiting for—word that it's my turn to sample the air where I live. And then I think about it, and realize this is a lottery I'd rather not have a ticket for. As a parent in South Portland, Maine, it's been hard not to worry about the air here. We always knew it stunk—an industrial stench would occasionally fill the skies outside our home, and especially near my kids' daycare, and we sensed that it might have something to do with the 120 petroleum storage tanks around the city. But we focused more on the appeal of living here: proximity to Portland, to beaches, to good schools and a strong community. Then we found out that some of those tanks had been issued violations by the EPA because they had the potential to emit twice their permitted limit of volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. Those nasty pollutants can trigger asthma attacks and cause headaches, and the worst of them can cause cancer. Once we learned about that, I started worrying less about the smell as a nuisance and more about whether it might be making people sick. Many of those tanks are close to homes and schools. Maine has some of the highest rates of asthma in the country—11.7 percent of adults here have asthma compared to 8.9 percent nationally. In kids, that's 9.1 percent compared to 8.1 percent nationally. Maine sits as the end of what's known as the "tail-pipe" of the United States—the Gulf Stream carries airborne pollutants from elsewhere and dumps them here on our rocky shores, contributing to the high asthma rates. Add the industrial presence here in South Portland, and who knows what we're being exposed to. Earlier this summer, the city and state launched two air-monitoring programs to try to figure that out.  Like dozens of others, I signed up. And now it's my turn.

Oil, Gas Employment Moves from Shale to Offshore -- Anticipated demand for offshore services brings with it an increased demand for workers as oil and gas employment shifts from shale to offshore, according to new analysis by energy research firm Rystad Energy. Looking at the oilfield services industry sectors with the highest percent change of employment, Rystad found the main driver of employment is moving from shale to offshore. “This is a clear effect of the increase in offshore sanctioning,” Matthew Fitzsimmons, vice president on Rystad’s oilfield services team, said in a report sent to Rigzone. “We expect offshore commitments to nearly double from 2018 to 2020 and sustain high levels of spending over the next five years.” While onshore basins like the Permian have been a hotbed of activity in recent years – holding US employment in the services sector steady in 2016 and 2017, offshore has now taken the lead, contends Rystad. Source: Rystad EnergyEarlier this month, Rystad forecasted a massive year for offshore project sanctioning in 2019. Now, it’s expecting offshore services demand to reach $442 billion in 2025, a 45 percent increase from 2018. Rystad said there was a cumulative workforce reduction of 31 percent due to reduced activity in 2015-2017, which greatly affected companies exposed to the offshore industry. But now the offshore market is gaining momentum as four out of the five top oilfield services companies with the largest workforce change from 2017 to 2018 were primarily exposed to the offshore industry. Still, there will be challenges. “Our informal interviews with oilfield services company leaders across the offshore industry all echoed a common challenge: how to bring experienced personnel back into the industry amidst current growth, and how to attract new talent,” said Fitzsimmons. “History would show that to bring back experienced professionals into an industry, higher wages will be required.”

Federal agency to assess oil and gas development's impact on endangered species in the Gulf --A federal lawsuit filed last year calling on the National Marine Fisheries Service to assess the impacts of oil and gas development on federally protected species and critical habitat in the Gulf of Mexico ended last week with a settlement agreement under which the service agreed to finish an assessment by November. Under the Endangered Species Act, the fisheries service is required to gauge the impacts of federally authorized oil and gas operations on species listed as threatened and endangered, as well as habitat designated as critical. It has been 12 years since the fisheries service did such an analysis of energy development in the Gulf, called a “biological opinion.” That opinion was intended to cover the five-year period from 2007 to 2012. After the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig explosion in 2010, the Department of Interior requested that the fisheries service update its 2007 opinion, taking the huge resulting oil spill into consideration. The assessment process began in 2013, but an updated opinion still hasn’t been issued. In 2018, three environmental groups sued the fisheries service over the delay. The 2018 lawsuit was filed in federal court in Florida by Earthjustice on behalf of the Center for Biological Diversity, the Sierra Club and Healthy Gulf, formerly known as the Gulf Restoration Network. A new biological opinion is necessary because the Deepwater Horizon spill likely made federally protected species more vulnerable by decreasing their populations, said Chris Eaton, senior attorney for Earthjustice. In addition, new scientific findings have come out in the 12 years since the last biological opinion, such as the impact of seismic surveys on whales. The settlement agreement was filed on July 19. The fisheries service agreed to finish the assessment and issue an updated biological opinion by Nov. 5. The agency also agreed to pay the conservation groups’ attorney’s fees, about $26,000.

Japanese Firm Bets Big on US Shale Boom-- Osaka Gas Co. is deepening its bet on the American energy boom, making the first purchase of a U.S. shale gas driller by a Japanese company. The company will acquire closely held Sabine Oil & Gas Corp., a unit of Sabine Oil & Gas Holdings, for $610 million. That will give Osaka Gas 175,000 net acres of shale-gas-producing land in East Texas, including wells in the Haynesville and Cotton Valley formations. It owned a 35% working interest in a shale field being developed by Sabine, which emerged from bankruptcy as a private company in August 2016. Osaka Gas also owns a 25% equity stake in the planned Freeport LNG export facility in Texas, according to an April filing from the Japanese company. The Sabine purchase is Osaka Gas’s biggest purchase, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, surpassing the $532 million it contributed to the purchase of APA GasNet Australia Investment Ltd. that closed in December 2008.

U.S. LNG exports to Europe increase amid declining demand and spot LNG prices in Asia - U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been growing steadily and reached a new peak of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in May 2019, according to the latest data published by the U.S. Department of Energy’sOffice of Fossil Energy. This year, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, averaging 4.2 Bcf/d in the first five months of the year, exceeding Malaysia’s LNG exports of 3.6 Bcf/d during the same period. The United States is expected to remain the third-largest LNG exporter in the world, behind Australia and Qatar, in 2019–20. U.S. LNG exports have increased as four new liquefaction units (trains) with a combined capacity of 2.4 Bcf/d—Sabine Pass Train 5, Corpus Christi Trains 1 and 2, and Cameron Train 1—came online since November 2018. Although Asian countries have continued to account for a large share of U.S. LNG exports, shipments to Europe have increased significantly since October 2018 and accounted for almost 40% of U.S. LNG exports in the first five months of 2019. LNG exports to Europe surpassed exports to Asia for the first time in January 2019. A warm winter in Asia and declining price differentials between European and Asian spot natural gas prices led to increased volumes of U.S. LNG exports delivered to Europe. Europe’s total LNG imports in the winter of 2018–19 averaged 10.2 Bcf/d, 60% higher than in the previous two winters and the highest winter average since at least 2013, according to CEDIGAZ LNG data. LNG imports to Europe have been relatively low in recent years, but they are expected to grow as new LNG supply comes online and European countries continue to increase natural gas consumption as part of their decarbonization initiatives. Total LNG imports in the three largest global LNG markets—Japan, China, and South Korea—started to decrease in February 2019 amid a milder-than-normal winter and, in Japan, the restart of nuclear power plants. China, which became the world’s second-largest LNG importer in 2017 (surpassing South Korea) and the world’s largest importer of total natural gas in 2018 (surpassing Japan and Germany), continued to increase LNG imports. Its LNG imports were 20% (1.3 Bcf/d) higher in the first five months of 2019 compared with the same period last year as the country continued to expand LNG import capacity and implement coal-to-gas switching policies.

Enterprise Products in deal with Chevron to develop crude oil port - (Reuters) - Pipeline operator Enterprise Products Partners signed long-term agreements with Chevron Corp that advance its proposed offshore crude project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the companies said on Tuesday.  Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal, or SPOT, is one of at least eight similar projects off the Texas and Louisiana coasts proposed to export oil from the region’s shale fields. It would compete with projects under development by commodities trader Trafigura Ltd, private equity firm Carlyle Group (CG.O), and pipeline operators Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP.N), Tallgrass Energy LP (TGE.N), and Phillips 66 (PSX.N). All the projects aim to carry rising shale production from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to overseas markets. A total of 2.3 million additional barrels per day of shale is expected to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast in the next year as volumes rise and new pipelines begin operation.  Enterprise declined to say whether Chevron would take a financial stake in the project, or whether Chevron would become a customer for a Permian crude pipeline that it calls Midland-to-Echo 3. Chevron was unavailable to comment. The value of the agreements was not disclosed. Enterprise is due to release its second-quarter results on Wednesday and could provide more details then, spokesman Rick Rainey said. Chevron agreed to use Enterprise’s crude oil transportation, marine terminals and storage facilities, which include its Houston storage facilities, the companies said.SPOT is planned for a site in 115 feet (35m) of water, about 40 miles (64 km) off the coast of Houston. Up to two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) could moor at the site and load up to 2 million barrels per day.

New US Oil Makes Inroads into Asia  -- A new grade of American light crude is making its way to oil-starved buyers in Asia, giving relief to some of the region’s biggest plastics makers as they seek alternatives to feedstock from Iran. South Korean refiners and petrochemical makers are purchasing West Texas Light crude, a new American grade that’s produced in the Permian Basin of west Texas and New Mexico. Hyundai Oilbank Co. and S-Oil Corp. most recently bought the grade for delivery in September and October. The oil, which is light and sweet in nature, yields a high proportion of naphtha and other distillates when processed, with low levels of impurities such as sulfur. Processors across Asia have been keen to find substitutes for Iranian crude and an ultra-light oil known as condensate, after the U.S. pared back waivers permitting purchases from the Persian Gulf state. In South Korea, companies with purpose-built units that break down condensate into the building blocks of plastics, however, have been the worst hit due to a halt in Iranian South Pars flows. That prompted buyers to snap up alternative supplies from Qatar, and haul replacements from as far away as Nigeria, Norway and the U.S. Hyundai Oilbank purchased the West Texas Light crude for delivery in October, while S-Oil bought 1 million barrels of the grade for September delivery, according to traders with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified as the information is private. For S-Oil, the West Texas Light grade will replace costlier supplies of Qatari condensate, since the company doesn’t typically buy Iranian oil. West Texas Light, which makes up 20% of production in the Permian, is being marketed to North Asian refiners as a petrochemical feedstock and refinery input that’s an alternative to Iranian condensate, Macquarie Research said in a report in May. The grade with an API gravity reading of 45-50 is lighter than the more often exported WTI Midland crude with API gravity of 38-42. South Korea’s monthly crude imports from the U.S. has averaged about 10 million barrels in the first six months of this year, compared to about 2.35 million barrels in the same period last year. While some U.S. Eagle Ford oil cargoes were rejected due to contamination earlier this year, the North Asian nation was the second-biggest buyer of U.S. oil in May,

Pipeline operator EPIC to begin U.S. crude export operations by year-end: executive - (Reuters) - EPIC Midstream Holdings LP has begun filling a new 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) oil pipeline that stretches from the Permian Basin to the U.S. Gulf Coast and will start exporting from its own South Texas terminal by the end of this year, President Brian Freed said in an interview on Monday. The San Antonio pipeline operator has also begun construction on a second dock at its export terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas, that next year will be capable of loading tankers that carry up to 1 million barrels, known as Suezmax tankers, Freed said. In the third quarter, EPIC will make the first deliveries into Corpus Christi on the new pipeline, one of three new pipelines helping to ease a crude oil bottleneck that has weighed on prices in the Permian of West Texas and New Mexico for more than a year. Freed said the second dock would be completed in 2020 but did not say exactly when. He did not disclose the terminal’s expected export and storage capacity once it is completed. EPIC will begin loading smaller Aframax tankers, which carry around 500,000 barrels, in Corpus Christi later this year. “We anticipate it will clear all the barrels that we have directed at the facility right now and we have the ability to expand,” Freed said.

Permian Output Getting Unwieldy for Gulf Coast Ports - A new study from the University of Houston (UH) concludes that U.S. refiners and other domestic customers will be unable to absorb growing Permian Basin production. It also finds most Gulf Coast ports are not ready to handle the largest – and most cost-effective – ships for exporting crude oil. Prepared by UH Energy and the UH Department of Industrial Engineering, the study finds that the Port of Houston likely will be unable to handle very large crude carriers (VLCCs). UH researchers cite the relatively shallow depth of the Houston Ship Channel and air quality considerations as key limitations to introducing VLCCs at the port. UH also noted that the Port of Corpus Christi – destination for much export-bound Permian crude – is expanding and adding VLCC handling capabilities. Currently, the only Gulf Coast port that can fully load VLCCs is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the university added. The authors maintain that delays in expanding export capacity will slow Permian production – a particularly burdensome development for independents, who already face pressure from the majors’ expanding operations there. “The independents are relatively inexperienced with exports, and if they can’t build that expertise, they could become targets for acquisition,” UH Chief Energy Officer Ramanan Krishnamoorti said in a written statement. “They also face additional stress because of the flight of capital from the Permian.”

Baytown Exxon Mobil explosion, fire at Texas refinery injures 37– An explosion and fire at an Exxon Mobil oil refinery in Texas on Wednesday left 37 people with minor injuries, in the latest of a series of petrochemical industry blazes this year in the Houston area. The fire began after an explosion at approximately 11:07 a.m. at an Exxon Mobil plant in Baytown, about 25 miles east of Houston. The facility processes light hydrocarbons including propane and propylene, materials used to make plastic and industrial products. Jason Duncan, the plant manager, said many of those hurt suffered minor burns and all were being treated at a local clinic. Earlier, Exxon Mobil had said in a statement that six people were injured. All employees at the plant had been accounted for, officials said. Right after the explosion, the fire sent large plumes of black smoke into the sky. By Wednesday afternoon, the smoke had lessened. Duncan said the fire had been isolated and contained but had not yet been extinguished.The city of Baytown issued a shelter in place for residents living west of the plant shortly after the fire. It remained in place for about three hours before being lifted Wednesday afternoon.

Exxon fights fire at Baytown, Texas, petrochemical plant; 37 injured - Exxon Mobil said it was fighting a fire that erupted on Wednesday at its Baytown, Texas, refining and chemical plant complex, injuring 37 workers and sending nearby residents indoors. More than three dozen people were treated for minor burns, none requiring hospitalization, said plant manager Jason Duncan in an afternoon media briefing. The company was still working to shut down the olefins unit which processes propane and propylene - a plastics building block - and isolate the fuel keeping the fire burning, he said. Duncan declined to comment on the fire’s impact on production at Exxon’s adjacent 560,500 barrels-per-day oil refinery. Two people familiar with its operations, however, said Exxon reduced some production at the refinery, which provides feedstocks to the unit that caught fire. The fire, which was being fought by the company’s employees, sent black smoke into the air over the complex in the Houston suburb. Firefighters and equipment from the city entered the plant at midday to assist, an official said. Residents around the plant were told to close windows and doors, turn off air conditioning and remain in their homes or offices. Schools in several communities in the area kept summer students indoors. The city of 75,000 people is located about 30 miles east of Houston. “We are cooperating with regulatory agencies. We deeply regret any disruption or inconvenience that this incident may have caused the community,” Exxon spokeswoman Sarah Nordin said in a statement. Available air monitoring information from the inside the Baytown Olefins Plant’s grounds and outside monitoring sources recorded no adverse impacts, Duncan said. The fire was continuing to burn residual fuel contained in a large column on Wednesday afternoon. The Baytown complex that includes the olefins plant where the fire occurred employs about 7,000 people among four manufacturing sites that cover 3,400 acres (13.8 square kilometers). It sits along the Houston Ship Channel, the nation’s largest and busiest energy port. Aerial footage showed flames and heavy smoke emanating from a large column at the facility, which Exxon identified as part of its production of olefins, a component of plastic. Emergency vehicles and people were massing around the edge of the complex.

Fire Burns at Exxon Plant in Baytown- Firefighters are working to put out a fire that began Wednesday morning at an ExxonMobil plant in Baytown, Texas. Exxon first posted on Twitter that a fire had occurred at the company’s Baytown Olefins Plant and the company’s fire team was working to extinguish the fire. Exxon said that the fire was in the unit containing polypropylene material. The unit which was affected processed light hydrocarbons including propane and propylene. The City of Baytown issued a “Shelter in Place” for areas west of the Exxon plant and south of Spur 330. Essentially, this means residents should remain indoors, seal the room and turn off air conditioning. Exxon tweeted earlier that care was being provided for six people who sustained non-life-threatening injuries in the fire. During an afternoon press conference, an Exxon spokesperson said 37 people sustained non-life-threatening injuries in the fire, which he described as minor, first-degree burns. The company is also working to shut down units to isolate the source of the fire. Exxon said it was a propane and propylene mixture that was burning. Exxon, the City of Baytown and other agencies are conducting air monitoring. At this time, there are no adverse or environmental effects from the fire, Exxon said. “At this time, it is difficult to gauge the full impact of the fire on the greater ExxonMobil Baytown complex,” John Maselli, senior research analyst for Wood Mackenzie said in a statement emailed to Rigzone. “The duration and magnitude of the market impact will be determined by the extent of the damage and what units and chemical value chains are affected.” Wood Mackenzie estimates about 45 percent of ExxonMobil’s installed USA chemical capacity is in Baytown.

Texas shale pioneers struggle to appease investors - (Reuters) - Seven years ago, Diamondback Energy Inc went public with a modest parcel of drillable land in the Permian Basin of West Texas. Like dozens of other Permian startups, the firm then pursued a classic wildcatter’s strategy - borrowing to buy up acreage, acquire competitors and quickly boost output in the booming shale field. Today, Diamondback is the 7th largest producer in the top U.S. oil region, according to researcher Wood Mackenzie. But Diamondback differs from most of its peers in a crucial way - it’s poised to make more cash than it spends.  It started paying shareholders a dividend last year and raised it by 50% this spring. “That’s a big pivot for our industry, living within cash flow and not being part of that ‘drill, baby, drill’ crowd,” Diamondback Chief Executive Travis Stice said in an interview. Only a handful of independent shale firms collect more than they spend. Total overspending by a group of 29 such firms totaled $6.69 billion in 2018, according to Morningstar data provided to Reuters by the Sightline Institute and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Diamondback was among the outspenders, but Morningstar projects it will produce free cash flow this year. The stark challenges facing the companies that pioneered the Permian signals a seismic shift in the shale economy - driven by investor demands for returns and a flood of investment from major oil firms including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP and Royal Dutch Shell with their boundless budgets and integrated operations stretching from the oilfield to the service station.

 Study Links Birth Defects With Nearby Oil And Gas Activity - Texas Standard -  A recently-published health study indicates expectant mothers living near extensive oil and gas development run a higher risk of having children with birth defects.The study from the Colorado School of Public Health found that mothers living near intense oil and gas activity have a 40 to 70 % higher chance of birthing children with congenital heart defects. Roughly 4.5 million Texans live within a mile of active oil and gas facilities, according to a 2017 study by the nonprofit Physicians, Scientists and Engineers for Healthy Energy. Dr Lisa McKenzie is an assistant research professor at the Colorado School of Public Health and the study’s senior author. McKenzie says the study analyzed 3,300 infants born in Colorado between 2005 and 2011 to arrive at its conclusion.“What we observed is that more children were being born with a congenital heart defect in areas with the highest intensity of oil and gas well activity,” McKenzie says.The reason for the connection between birth defects and oil activity is outside the scope of the study, McKenzie says, but it still supports a larger breakthrough.“It does provide more evidence that there may be something about oil and gas development or some emission associated with oil and gas development that is putting children at higher risk,” McKenzie says.These dangers are posed from any oil and gas activity, McKenzie says, which includes well-drilling, hydraulic fracturing and production procedures.“In addition to the density of the wells, you have to account for the intensity of activity on those well sites,” McKenzie says. “Not every well site looks like another well site.”

Drilling Down- Saltwater disposal wells make up nearly one-third of well permits - Water management continues to be big issue in the oilfield where one in three of all drilling permits filed in Texas over the past week were to develop new saltwater disposal wells. Of the 286 drilling permits filed for projects in Texas, 95 of them were filed by 50 companies seeking to develop new injection wells to store oilfield wastewater deep underground. The largest number came from the Permian Basin where oil wells produce more water than oil. Houston water recycling company and disposal well operator Solar Water Midstream led the pack with seven drilling permits for projects in five counties. The Houston office of BP filed for six injection well permits in the Permian, as did the Austion company PearlSnap Midstream, which was formed last year and filed its first-ever drilling permits to develop saltwater disposal wells on six leases in Martin County. Midland exploration and production company Summit Petroleum is preparing to drill six new horizontal wells in Upton County. The wells target the Spraberry formation on the company’s Rachael lease about 12 miles north of Rankin at total depths ranging from 9,400 to 10,100 feet. The Woodlands oil company Geosouthern Energy is planning to drill a pair of Austin Chalk wells in the eastern end of the Eagle Ford Shale. The company filed for permission to drill the horizontal wells on its Dahmann lease about 9 miles northwest of Brenham in Washington County. The wells target the Giddings field of the Austin Chalk formation at total depths of 14,000 feet. Frisco oil company Comstock Resources is seeking permission to drill the three horizonatl natural gas wells on two leases in Harrison County. The wells target the Carthage field of the Haynesville Shale to a total depth of 13,000 feet. No horizontal drilling permits were filed in the Barnett Shale of North Texas this past week, but Dallas natural gas company Atmos Energy is preparing to recomplete an underground storage well. Located about 4.5 miles south of Henrietta in Clay County, the vertical well targets the La-Pan field of the Mississippian formation to a depth of 6,500 feet.

Wastewater injection could trigger earthquakes along a Texas fault system, UT researchers find | KXAN— Last week, a study led by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found that the majority of faults under the Fort Worth Basin are sensitive to changes in stress, which could cause them to slip. Researchers with UT’s Bureau of Economic Geology, along with researchers at Stanford University, and Southern Methodist University in Dallas have created a comprehensive map of more than 250 faults which — in total — run more than 1,800 miles. Some of those faults extend under highly populated areas in the Dallas- Fort Worth region. The study found that the faults are relatively stable if they are left undisturbed, but that wastewater injection significantly increases the potential of faults to slip if they are not managed properly. Wastewater injection is a common practice in the oil and gas industry. A release from UT Austin noted the Fort Worth Basin saw “a major increase in seismic activity from 2008 to 2015 as oil and gas operations increased, but a significant reduction in earthquakes the last four years as injection has slowed.” UT researchers said that people should know this fault system is susceptible to possibly hosting earthquakes. They explained that if oil and gas production increases and also comes with an uptick in deep wastewater disposal, that could lead to more earthquakes if it is not managed properly. For this study, UT Austin developed the new fault map and led the research, SMU pulled together the earthquake history of the region to update the fault map, and Stanford worked on a map of the tectonic stress in the area.

Concho Resources joint venture to boost water recycling in Permian Basin - Midland oil company Concho Resources has entered into a joint venture with Houston-based Solaris Water Midstream in a business move that is expected to boost oilfield water recycling in Permian Basin. Financial terms were not disclosed but in a Wednesday afternoon statement, Concho Resources reported that it is providing 13 of its saltwater disposal wells and 40 miles of produced water pipelines to the joint venture to cover a 1.6 million-acre area in Eddy County, New Mexico. Produced water is the wastewater that comes to the surfance alongside oil and natural gas. Solaris Water Midstream is already the top independent recycler of produced water in New Mexico but the joint venture is expected to boost that rapidly growing industry. Solaris Water Midstream's Pecos Star System in New Mexico includes more than 300 miles of produced water gathering pipelines in addition to disposal, storage, recycling and blending facilities. Under the joint venture, Solaris Water Midstream will deliver blended and reused water to Concho Resources, enabling the oil cmopany to significantly increase in the use of recycled water on the New Mexico side of the Permian Basin.

 Cleanup continues at Walloon Lake oil spill site — Following the discovery of a fuel oil leak along Walloon Lake’s south shore in late June, the ongoing cleanup effort has expanded to address leakage from a second tank discovered on the same property. The problem was first reported June 25 by a neighbor near a home under demolition on Ellis Road. The neighbor called authorities to report a diesel fuel-like smell and a sheen on the surface of the lake in the area. Emergency crews initially responded and took steps to contain the spill. Officials from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (formerly the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality) responded the following day. Melissa Kendzierski, an environmental quality analyst with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy said the oil came from a old 250-gallon fuel oil storage tank that was found in the basement of a 100-year-old lodge on the property that crews were demolishing. Previously, Kendzierski said she received information indicating that as crews were trying to lift the tank out of the basement, “there was some kind of mishap” and an estimated two to three gallons of fuel oil spilled on the floor. She said the floor of the basement contained a drain that routed discharges to a nearby embankment about 50 feet from the lake. Officials believe the tank had been leaking for some time and that the pipe leading away from the floor drain had become clogged, Kendzierski added. She said it’s likely that the demolition work at the site dislodged the clog in the drainpipe, allowing oil that had been inside to spill out of the embankment.

Enbridge open to rerouting Line 5 around tribal land (AP) — Enbridge Inc. says it’s willing to consider rerouting a major oil pipeline around the Bad River Reservation in northern Wisconsin. Members of the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued Enbridge on Tuesday in hopes of forcing the Calgary, Alberta-based company to remove sections of its Line 5 pipeline that run across their reservation. They say it’s increasingly likely the 66-year-old line will rupture and cause catastrophic damage. The tribe decided in 2017 not to renew easements that allow the pipeline to cross its swampy reservation on Lake Superior. Enbridge said in a statement Thursday it’s “surprised and disappointed.” The company says it has considered rerouting Line 5 around the reservation and remains open to that as a solution. Line 5 carries Canadian crude and propane to eastern Michigan.

Sanders backs Line 5 shutdown — Bernie Sanders on Thursday joined environmental activists calling for a shutdown of Enbridge’s controversial Line 5 pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac. The Vermont senator is the second Democratic presidential hopeful to speak out against the 66-year-old pipeline and renewed his proposal to ban on all new fossil fuel infrastructure. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee called for a shutdown two weeks ago and urged other candidates to join him ahead of the second round of presidential debates Tuesday and Wednesday in Detroit. He also criticized a $500 million Enbridge plan to move Line 5 into a protective tunnel beneath the Straits. Sanders announced his position on the nine-year anniversary of a separate Enbridge pipeline rupture near Marshall that dumped more than 1.2 million gallons of oil into the Kalamazoo River. It was the worst in-land spill in U.S. history and resulted in a $177 million fine from federal officials and a $75 million settlement with the state of Michigan. Like Inslee, Sanders did not specify how he would ensure adequate propane supplies to the Upper Peninsula and other parts of Michigan if Line 5 is shut down. The pipeline carries up to 540,000 barrels a day of light crude oil and natural gas liquids Enbridge insists the dual pipeline is secure, but the Canadian firm wants to move Line 5 into a new $500 million tunnel beneath the Straits, which it had pledged to pay for as part of an agreement with Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder. But new Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel have effectively blocked the project. The future of the tunnel and pipeline are now tied up in court after Whitmer and Enbridge were unable to negotiate a faster construction timeline.

Though the Illinois fracking boom has fizzled, legal saga drags on — Just a few years ago, Illinois was bracing for a fracking boom — particularly in southern parts of the state. State leaders set the stage when they passed a 2013 law to allow high-volume fracking using horizontal drilling techniques. Within a year, fossil fuel companies bought hundreds of lease rights in certain Southern Illinois counties. Lawsuits opposing the practice emerged, and communities waged divisive fightsabout what the activity could mean for local economies and environmental quality. But despite the hoopla, a rush on oil and natural gas failed to materialize.   But still, at least one legal fight surrounding Illinois fracking drags on — as was the case in a Metro East courtroom last week. Around the country, the practice has ignited fierce debate as it has risen to prominence over the past decade, often centering on health concerns from groundwater impacts, but also touching on other matters, including mineral rights and property rights. In Illinois, a collection of individual citizens and a nonprofit group called Southern Illinoisans Against Fracturing Our Environment are plaintiffs in ongoing litigation that, since 2014, has voiced broad legal opposition to fracking in the state, on multiple grounds. The group’s latest court proceedings, heard in Madison County Circuit Court last week, argued that certain fracking information from the state should be made public. The information in question contains details about examples of forced integration, or forced pooling — the term for when oil or gas extraction is allowed to go forward even in areas where certain property owners disapprove of it, as long as a majority of owners with applicable mineral rights want to allow it. In other words, if there is a desirable deposit that extends beneath someone’s land, companies could make a play on it without their permission — as long as enough of the neighbors say yes.

US Crude Oil Inventories Drop 8.5 Million Bbls -- EIA -- July 31, 2019 -- Link here. From EIA:

• weekly US crude oil inventories: decreased by a whopping 8.5 million bbls; corroborates API's data from yesterday
• weekly US crude oil inventory: at 436.5 million bbls, at the five-year average for this time of year; [I don't know, but I believe the EIA recently changed the way it calculated US crude oil inventory -- by removing crude oil in pipelines from the storage number -- could be wrong]
• refineries operating at 93.0% capacity; near high end; unchanged from last week
• crude oil imports, four-week average: about 13% less than same four-week period one year ago
• total product supplied: 21.1 million bbls; up 1.2% from same period last year
• gasoline supplied, four-week-average: less than 10 million bbls per day (9.6 million b/d) 
• distillate fuel product supplied average: less than 4 million bbls per day (3.8 million b/d)
• jet fuel production supplied average: up 3.3% over same four-week period last year

US Drops Six Oil Rigs - The nation offset a loss of six oil rigs with an addition of two gas rigs. The U.S. rig count declined by a net total of four rigs this week, according to weekly data by Baker Hughes, a GE Company. The nation offset the loss of six oil rigs with a gain of two gas rigs. This brings the total number of active rigs in the U.S. to 942, down 102 from the count of 1,044 a year ago. Oklahoma led all states in declines, with a loss of five rigs. New Mexico and Louisiana dropped two rigs and one rig, respectively. Alaska added three rigs and Texas added one rig. Among the major basins, the Haynesville was the only one to add rigs this week, tacking on one additional rig. Meanwhile the Granite Wash lost two rigs while the Cana Woodford and Permian dropped one rig apiece. The Permian now has 442 active rigs, which still accounts for almost half of the nation’s active rigs

Whiting Cuts 33 Percent of its Workforce - U.S. independent Whiting Petroleum Corporation cut one-third of its workforce as it executes a restructuring of its business. The company, which has headquarters in Denver, Colorado, expects the restructuring to result in $50 million in annual cost savings. A total of 254 positions were cut with 94 of those being executive and corporate positions. “We aim to be as efficient as possible and that is why we made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce in order to realize significant annualized cost savings,” Whiting CEO Bradley Holly said in a company statement. “As the oil and gas industry landscape continues to evolve and investor focus shifts to prioritize predictable capital returns, we see a tremendous opportunity to transform Whiting into a leading, value-focused developer of unconventional assets with a commitment to safety, cost-efficiency, disciplined capital expenditure and maximizing returns. The decision to reduce headcount is always a difficult one as it impacts talented colleagues and friends, but it is a necessary step in our company’s transformation.” In a separate announcement on Wednesday regarding the company’s second quarter earnings, Whiting reported an adjusted net loss of income of $25.7 million from $57.3 million a year ago. Whiting operates primarily in the Rocky Mountains region of the U.S. The company’s largest projects are in the Bakken and Three Forks plays in North Dakota and Montana and the Niobrara play in northeast Colorado.

Keystone XL inches forward. -- TC Energy Corp.’s $8 billion Keystone XL crude oil pipeline is inching forward after a court injunction that stopped work on the project has been lifted. An order issued by a Montana judge barring certain pre-construction activities was dissolved on Monday, according to the Canadian company. That followed a June ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit that a new presidential permit negated challenges to the project’s earlier approval, TC Energy said Thursday in its second-quarter earnings statement. The victory is only a partial win for TC Energy and the Keystone XL project, which would ship more crude from Canada’s oil sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. TC Energy said in May it was already too late to start major construction activity this year. The project also still faces a legal challenge in Nebraska, and a decision on that matter is due this quarter, TC said Thursday. The 1,200-mile (1,900-kilometer) conduit is seen as a key project for the Canadian oil industry, which has been hampered by a lack of pipeline space. It’s also become a target of environmentalists, who argue that it would enable increased development of Alberta’s oil sands, thus raising global greenhouse gas emissions.

 Opponent of nations public lands is picked to oversee them - Akron Beacon Journal — A conservative lawyer and writer who argues for selling off the nation’s public lands is now in charge of a nearly quarter-billion acres in federally held rangeland and other wilderness.Interior Secretary David Bernhardt on Monday signed an order making Wyoming native William Perry Pendley acting head of the Bureau of Land Management. The bureau manages nearly 250 million acres of largely wild public lands and their minerals and other resources in vast holdings across the U.S. West.Pendley, a former midlevel Interior appointee in the Reagan administration, for decades has championed ranchers and others in standoffs with the federal government over grazing and other uses of public lands. He has written books accusing federal authorities and environmental advocates of “tyranny” and “waging war on the West.” He argued in a 2016 National Review article that the “Founding Fathers intended all lands owned by the federal government to be sold.”  In tweets this summer, Pendley has welcomed Trump administration moves to open more federal land to mining and oil and gas development and other private business use, and he has called the oil and gas extraction technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, “an energy, economic, AND environmental miracle!”The Interior Department appointed Pendley as the policy director at BLM, which manages one out of every 10 acres in the United States and 30% of the nation’s minerals, in mid-July. It confirmed his appointment as acting head on Monday night.A conservation group called Pendley an “ideological zealot” and pointed to the federal agency’s announcement earlier this month that it planned to move the BLM’s headquarters from Washington and disperse the headquarters staff among Western states. Pendley’s “ascending to the top of BLM just as it is being reorganized strongly suggests the administration is positioning itself to liquidate our shared public lands,” said Phil Hanceford, conservation director for The Wilderness Society conservation advocacy group.

Congenital Heart Defects Linked to Area Fracking Operations: Study - Researchers from the University of Colorado say children born in near fracking operations face a higher risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs). The findings were published online in the journal Environment International on July 18, indicating that higher rates of pulmonary artery and valve defects, aortic defects and other heart malformations at rates 40% to 70% higher among children near oil and gas extraction operations in Colorado. More commonly referred to as “fracking”, hydraulic fracturing involves drilling and fracturing of shale rock to release oil and gas. Fracking results in the injection of water, sand and chemicals into wells at high pressures, to crack the surrounding rock, thus releasing the natural gas underground and allowing it to flow to the head of the well. Problems from fracking have previously been linked to negative environmental effects to the surrounding communities, due the impact on drinking water, as well as increased dust and exhaust from drilling rigs, compressors and the transportation of the water, sand and chemicals. The process has also been linked to increased earthquake activity. The extent of the potential harm to humans living close to these fracking sites has yet to be determined. In this latest study, researchers conducted a nested case-control study of 3,324 infants born in Colorado between 2005 and 2011. They looked at monthly intensities of oil and gas activity at the mother’s residences from three months before they got pregnant through the second month of their pregnancy. Overall, they determined that congenital heart defects were 40% to 70% times more likely among medium and high intensity fracking exposure groups, respectively.

North Dakota oil spill affects Williams County grassland— A pipeline leak on a Williams County well pad resulted in oil being spilled on nearby grassland, the North Dakota Department of Environmental quality said Friday, Aug. 2.Initial estimates indicate 10,080 gallons of oil spilled on the north side of Williston Thursday, with less than 5,880 gallons making its way onto grassland south of the well pad, said Brian O'Gorman, environmental scientist for the DEQ.The well pad and pipeline are operated by Samson Oil and Gas USA, Inc.The spill has been contained and 4,200 gallons have been recovered. Remediation of the area is ongoing, and DEQ personnel are monitoring the incident. O'Gorman said a specific cause hasn't been pinpointed, but they weren't aware of any water sources being affected.

State, oil industry look to study lightning at saltwater disposal sites in oil patch - State officials and oil industry leaders want to commission a study of lightning strikes at saltwater disposal sites. Lightning has hit saltwater facilities in western North Dakota at least four times since June. The strikes have caused fires, as well as spills of oil and brine. Salty water known as brine comes up to the earth’s surface alongside oil and gas at well sites, and it’s carried by pipeline or truck to disposal wells where it’s processed through tanks and injected back underground for storage. People familiar with the facilities say tanks made of fiberglass seem to be particularly susceptible to fires when lightning strikes. The North Dakota Oil and Gas Research Council last week took an initial step to commission a study of the issue, deciding to pursue a request for proposals. The council, made up of state officials and representatives from the energy industry, identifies oil- and gas-related research projects to pursue. Up to $10 million in oil taxes fund its activities each biennium. The state’s Industrial Commission, chaired by the governor, will need to grant approval to move forward. Industrial Commission Executive Director Karlene Fine said that could happen at its next meeting Aug. 28. Lightning-related fires at disposal sites present a safety issue in the oil fields, according to Ron Day, a member of the research council who works for Marathon Petroleum. He supports studying the issue further. “It’s really just to try to understand, is there a connection to fiberglass tanks, is there a way to lightning-proof or reduce the threat of lightning to those facilities?” he said.

is the Bakken heading towards a crude oil pipeline overbuild? Part 2 -- Bakken crude oil production surpassed 1.4 MMb/d this spring and has maintained a level near that since, even posting a new high just shy of 1.5 MMb/d in April 2019. The rising production volumes have filled any remaining space on the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) and prompted midstream companies to step up expansion efforts to alleviate the pressure, even as questions linger about the possibility of a pipeline overbuild if all of the announced capacity gets built. Specifically, the market is weighing the need for the recently announced Liberty Pipeline and a DAPL expansion. Today, we look at these two new projects and what their development means for the supply/demand balance in one of the U.S.’s biggest shale basins. As we highlighted in Part 1 of this series, Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline (orange line in Figure 1) to Patoka, IL, fixed a lot of the crude takeaway problems in the Bakken after its start-up in June 2017. Prior to DAPL’s completion, there was a big gap between growing Bakken output and less-than-adequate pipeline capacity out of the basin. Producers and traders in the area were forced to rely upon slower — and more expensive — crude-by-rail capacity in order to move barrels to sales markets. With its initial capacity of 525 Mb/d, DAPL served as a relief valve to area producers, and gave them the ability to connect directly to Gulf Coast markets via DAPL’s sister system, the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP; yellow line) from Patoka to Nederland, TX. DAPL, which was later expanded to 570 Mb/d, also allows producers to reach Midwest refiners if they choose to off-ramp at Patoka.

ONEOK announces another gas plant expansion - Add another 200 million cubic feet per day to the new gas processing capacity scheduled to come online in the next 12 to 18 months for North Dakota’s natural gas. ONEOK announced late Thursday afternoon that it will expand gas processing capacity by that much at its existing Bear Creek facility in Dunn County. Pipeline Authority Justin Kringstad told the Williston Herald the expansion will provide much needed gas processing capacity in that area. The Bear Creek expansion will cost an estimated $405 million. It’s expected to be finished in the first quarter of 2021. The expansion is supported by acreage dedications with primarily fee-based contracts. “The Bear Creek plant expansion in North Dakota will provide needed processing capacity for producers actively developing the high-growth area of Dunn County while also helping to address natural gas flaring in the state,” Terry K. Spencer, ONEOK president and chief executive officer said in the company’s media release. The Bear Creek expansion was one of three new projects announced late Thursday afternoon by ONEOK. The company is also expanding its Mid-Continent NGL fractionation facility by 65,000 barrels per day, as well as additional NGL infrastructure to increase the capacity between the Elk Creek and Arbuckle II pipelines. And it is adding 40,000 barrels per day in NGLs to the West Texas LPG pipeline in the Permian. “Continuing to expand our West Texas LPG pipeline system underscores ONEOK’s Permian Basin strategy to provide needed NGL transportation capacity to producers in the highly productive Delaware and Midland basins,” Spencer said. The Mid-Continent expansion is estimated to cost about $150 million and will be completed in two stages by the first quarter of 2021.

Exxon Mobil beats earnings estimates - Exxon Mobil reported second-quarter results on Friday that beat analyst expectations. Here’s how the energy giant’s results fared relative to Wall Street expectations:

• Earnings: 73 cents per share vs. 66 cents expected by Refinitiv
• Revenue: $69.091 billion vs. $65.202 billion expected
• Upstream income: $3.261 billion vs. $3.15 billion forecast by StreetAccount
• Downstream income: $451 million vs. $626.7 million forecast
• Chemicals income: $188 million vs. $356.5 million expected.

“We continue to make significant progress toward delivering our long-term growth plans,” CEO Darren Woods said in a statement. “Our new U.S. Gulf Coast steam cracker is exceeding design capacity by 10 percent, less than a year after startup. Our upstream liquids production increased by 8 percent from last year, driven by growth in the Permian Basin, and we are preparing to startup the Liza Phase 1 development in Guyana, where the estimated recoverable resource increased to more than 6 billion oil-equivalent barrels.” The company’s bottom line also got a boost from a tax-rate change in Alberta, Canada.Exxon’s net production of natural gas liquids, crude oil, bitumen and synthetic oil hit 2.4 million barrels per day, up from 2.212 million barrels per day in the year-earlier period. The company added its upstream business — which includes oil and natural gas exploration — got a boost from higher average oil prices in the second quarter relative to the first period of the year.However, crude prices have recently stumbled. They have fallen more than 5% this quarter. Exxon shares are also down around 5% in the third quarter. Strength in Exxon’s upstream business was able to offset weaker-than-expected results from the energy giant’s downstream and chemical divisions.

BP second-quarter profits beat expectations despite lower oil prices - Energy giant BP reported better-than-expected second-quarter net profits on Tuesday, saying it is “right on target” at the midpoint of its five-year plan. U.K.-based BP posted second-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.8 billion, versus $2.5 billion expected in a Reuters poll. That compared with a profit of $2.8 billion over the same period a year earlier and $2.4 billion in the first three months of 2019. BP said the quarter’s result largely reflected continued good operating performance, offset by oil prices lower than in the second quarter of 2018. International benchmark Brent crude stood at $64.15 Tuesday morning, down more than 14% when compared to the end of the second quarter in 2018. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $57.25 during morning deals, almost 20% lower from a year earlier. The FTSE 100 giant said its upstream and downstream divisions performed strongly in three-month period through to July 30. Production rose 4% to average 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Total revenue for the second quarter came in at $73.75 billion, down 4.1% from a year earlier. BP said Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments of $1.4 billion on a post-tax basis in the second quarter were primarily the scheduled annual payments.

 Oil Has a Millennial Problem - Oil companies have a problem, and his name is Robert Paver. This 22-year-old graduate, along with his fellow students of earth sciences at the University of Oxford, should be natural recruits for an industry that has a long and lucrative history in the U.K. But instead of contemplating a career at an offshore driller, he’s planning to become a management consultant. Out of Paver’s cohort of 28 students, only one is going into the oil and gas industry. “Twenty or thirty years ago, oil was definitely very popular for students, but there seem to be a lot fewer people going into it these days,” Paver said in a phone interview. “A lot of alumni went into BP and Shell in the past, more than currently.” For decades, science and engineering graduates have followed a well-worn path from top U.K. universities into the oil and gas industry, supplying the skilled workforce that’s needed to discover and develop resources all over the world. In recent years, the flow of talent has slowed to a trickle, raising fundamental questions for an industry that remains a vital cog in the global economy. The decline began in earnest after 2014, when the price of oil went into freefall and the petroleum industry hemorrhaged jobs. Companies slashed graduate recruitment, with the number of hires halving in two years. Yet that’s not the whole story. Crude prices have recovered and the industry has found its feet again, but the number of British graduates going into the sector has continued falling to the lowest since records began in 2012. There are growing signs that the once-desirable industry isn’t the employer it used to be. “People are worried that there aren’t going to be as many jobs in the future, especially geology-related jobs because of a movement away from fossil fuels,”

California's biggest oil spill in decades brings more defiance than anger from locals - Hardly a day goes by without reports of the growing oil leak in nearby Cymric oil field. So far, more than 900,000 gallons of oil and brine have oozed from a Chevron Corp. well, and filled a dry creek, creating a hazardous black lagoon. The residents of McKittrick, population 145, understand why people are upset by the images. Also, there’s no avoiding the worry that prolonged exposure to crude oil might one day trigger health issues. But judging from the rowdy talk over cold beers and a blaring jukebox at Mike and Annie’s Penny Bar — a watering hole for thirsty oil field hands that has over a million pennies glued to the bar, floors, walls, television and entrance — the locals see a different story playing out. “Environmentalists have it all wrong,” argued Troy Smith, 46, an oil field worker who grew up in the area. “Compared with the catastrophic Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska and BP’s deep-sea spill in the Gulf of Mexico, our little outbreak is nothing. Yet, they’re using it as an excuse to shut down California’s oil industry and wipe us out.” “What more do they want?” he asked no one in particular. “We already work under the strictest standards imaginable, and adhere to them tooth and nail.” Smith, like many others in McKittrick, was more worried about how the largest California spill in nearly three decades would affect election campaigns and new oil industry legislation in Congress and the state Legislature. When Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has taken a more anti-oil stance than his predecessor, former Gov. Jerry Brown, ventured to the spill site for a firsthand look on Wednesday, the sarcastic response heard across town was, “There goes the neighborhood.” But the future of California’s billion-dollar oil industry was already being shaped by shifting political winds, building concerns about toxic emissions from oil and natural production, development of alternative energy facilities and a recent overhaul of the California Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources, or DOGGR, the state’s primary oil regulatory agency. “California can put a stop to the inevitability of oil spills by intentionally transitioning away from oil extraction,” said Kathryn Phillips, director of Sierra Club California. “The state must prioritize our public health and our environment over corporate polluters’ profits.”

 Crews clean up oil spill after tugboat sinks at Railway Marina— Washington Ecology, the Coast Guard, and the Navy responded to a sunken 60-foot tugboat with 300 gallons of diesel at the Port Orchard Railway Marina on Monday afternoon. According to Ecology, a small oil skimmer was used and cleanup material was applied, gathering a large amount of spilled diesel fuel. The Navy placed hard boom around the sunken ship. Overnight Monday, the Coast Guard’s contractors plugged the boat’s fuel vents, which allow fuel to flow out when submerged. Upon finding additional fuel in the boom on Tuesday morning, the contractors searched for where the leak was coming from to try to close it, said Larry Altose, communications manager for Ecology. Crews will also pump out any remaining fuel and engine lube to prevent further spillage.“While the boom appears to be effective at containing the spill, the Coast Guard will have a helicopter fly over the area, as that's the best way to see if any oil has escaped containment,” Altose said. The Coast Guard used the federal oil spill contingency fund to hire Global Diving and Salvage to replace cleanup material and assess the vessel, Altrose said

Sunk tugboat spills oil into Port Orchard marina — Multiple agencies were working on an oil spill after a 65-foot tugboat sank at the Port Orchard Railway Marina Monday afternoon. Divers recovered 250 gallons of diesel fuel and hydraulic oil from the boat. Global Salvage and Diving was brought in to clean up and prevent any further pollution. The Coast Guard says it’s working closely with the state and ecology groups to keep potential impact to the environment as minimal as possible.

How Science Got Trampled in the Rush to Drill in the Arctic  -- Tucked into the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a brief two-page section that had little to do with tax reform. Drafted by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, the provision opened up approximately 1.6 million acres of the vast Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing, a reversal of the federal policy that has long protected one of the most ecologically important landscapes in the Arctic.  A variety of species such as polar bear and caribou depend on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to give birth to their young. The plain is also believed to sit atop one of the largest untapped reserves of oil in the United States.  The only thing standing in the way of establishing an oil and gas leasing program is the environmental review process, which includes an assessment of the proposed seismic surveys and an evaluation of the impacts of leasing and future development on the refuge. Environmental reviews are a standard part of oil and gas drilling elsewhere in Alaska, and normally, such impact statements for ecologically sensitive and undeveloped land would take at least two to three years—or even longer, according to three former DOI officials interviewed for this article. Instead, the administration is compressing it into just over one year. The environmental impact statement for leasing commenced in April 2018, and the final results, already publicly available in draft form, are expected to be published next month.  According to interviews with more than a dozen current and former employees at the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Bureau of Land Management in Alaska, that speed has come at a significant cost to the reliability and comprehensiveness of the overall environmental review. They describe a process that has been confusing and “off the rails,” according to one BLM employee.Documents leaked to POLITICO Magazine and Type Investigations reveal that the work of career scientists has at times been altered or disregarded to underplay the potential impact of oil and gas development on the coastal plain. Moreover, DOI has decided it will undertake no new studies as part of the current review process, despite scientists’ concerns that key data is years out of date or doesn’t exist.

The U.S. Might Sanction a Russian Pipeline to Germany. That’s a Terrible Idea. - Don’t just sit there, sanction someone” should be the motto for U.S. foreign policy these days. Let’s impose more sanctions on Iran for violating the agreement from which the Trump administration withdrew unilaterally. Let’s hit Russia with sanctions not only for its 2016 interference in U.S. elections, but for future interference it has yet to commit, instead of passing bills to enhance election security. Now the House and Senate are considering legislation to impose sanctions on companies involved in building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. On Wednesday the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the sanctions bill 20-2. Ostensibly intended to protect Europe from Russia’s malign influence by halting pipeline construction, this legislation will do nothing of the sort. It is far more likely to undermine U.S. relations with Germany and push Russia even closer to China. In fact, if U.S. lawmakers really want to undercut Russia’s leverage against Europe, they should support the pipeline project. There is much to criticize about Nord Stream 2. It is yet another example of the cozy relationship between Russian and German business elites. Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled natural gas monopoly and Nord Stream’s majority shareholder, is known for its business practices skewed to benefit Kremlin insiders, many of whom are under U.S. sanctions. The Kremlin has also used Gazprom as a foreign policy tool to bully its neighbors dependent on Russian gas. But the proposed legislation will not change Gazprom, its German and other European partners, or the Kremlin’s bullying habits. Nor will it stop the pipeline, which has the necessary financing and is more than two-thirds completed. Even if the proposed sanctions deter some companies from participating in the project, others will step in. The German government has rejected the Trump administration’s threat of unilateral extraterritorial sanctions against German companies involved in the pipeline project. True, as the pipeline’s critics charge, once it is built, Nord Stream 2 could—theoretically, if Russia develops new supply sources—deliver as much as 55 billion cubic meters more Russian gas annually to Europe.  These critics fear that Europe is becoming too dependent on Russian gas, and a new pipeline would make the problem only worse. But in fact, Russia’s share of Europe’s gas imports has been decreasing. In 1980, during the Cold War, Russia supplied 80 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports; in 2018, that share was 40 percent.

Russian Gasoline Makes Long Trek to Venezuela -- Russian oil products are making their way to sanction-stained Venezuela, affording a reprieve for the Latin American nation as it battles persistent fuel shortages. Venezuela received at least 616,000 barrels of gasoline and 500,000 of vacuum gas oil, a feedstock used to produce gasoline, in June and July. The cargoes sailed from the Black Sea port of Taman to Malta, where they were transferred to other vessels heading to Venezuela, according to people familiar with the cargoes and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. More Russian cargoes could be coming as the vessel Commander, which loaded VGO in Taman in late July, is also heading for Malta, one of the people said. Tanker-tracking data confirm the movement. The fuel shipments could help Venezuela ease its gasoline crisis. Once an exporter of gasoline to the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast, the country now must import almost of all of its fuel amid breakdowns at its domestic refineries. Before sanctions imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump, Venezuela imported most of its gasoline from the U.S. and India, but recently switched to supplies from Turkey, Latvia, Greece and now Russia. It’s a long trip. Gasoline vessels from Russia take 30 days to Venezuelan shores, while supplies from the U.S. arrive in a little over than a week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Russia is probably charging a premium for these cargoes because of sanctions,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC. “It’s unusual that Black Sea gasoline is making its way over to this side of the Atlantic,” he said in a phone interview from Houston. Russia froze domestic gasoline prices in the first half of this year, making fuel exports a more attractive option. From July, the government removed the cap but reached an informal agreement with producers to keep retail and wholesale prices growing in line with inflation, according to Vedomosti.

10,000 Gallons of Oil Spills Into Chile’s Pristine Patagonia - Forty-thousand liters (approximately 10,600 gallons) of diesel oil have spilled into the waters of Chile's Patagonia, a biodiversity hotspot at the tip of South America.  The Chilean navy confirmed the oil spill Saturday after receiving a call from CAP, a mining company, informing it of a spill from its terminal on Guarello Island, The Guardian reported.  The oil spilled from the island, where CAP mines limestone, and out into the South Pacific Ocean, Reuters reported. Oceana Chile tweeted a map showing the affected area, along with the hope that the spill would not be of unspeakable proportions.  Greenpeace Chile also expressed concern over the potential damage, warning it could be "devastating.""It's an extremely grave situation considering the pristine nature of the waters in which this environmental emergency has occurred," Greenpeace Chile Director Matías Asun said in a statement reported by CNN. "It must be considered that the zone is extremely difficult to access and that it is an area of great richness of marine mammals, like whales and dolphins, which could see themselves seriously affected in their habitat given that when coming to the surface to breathe they could meet this layer of oil."The navy sent ships to control the damage and launched an investigation into its cause."The marine pollution control centre was activated," Third Naval Zone commander Ronald Baasch told local media, according to The Associated Press.The navy announced that around 15,000 liters (approximately 4,000 gallons) had been contained as of Sunday, CNN reported.

Chile continues its mission to clean 40,000 liters of oil spilled at sea - The spill occurred near a remote island on the south coast of the country The Chilean Navy seeks to control the spill of 40,000 liters of diesel oil in Chilean Patagonia , in the south of the country. The accident occurred on Saturday on the island of Guarello, on the Chilean side of Patagonia, the southernmost region that constitutes the tip of Argentina and Chile. The spill would have devastating impacts on the environment in the area. “It is an extremely serious situation considering the pristine nature of the waters in which this environmental emergency has occurred,” said the national director of Greenpeace Chile, Matías Asun. “It should be considered that the area is extremely difficult to access and that it is an area of ​​great wealth of marine mammals, such as whales and dolphins, that could be seriously affected in their habitat, since when they surface to breathe they could encounter this layer of oil, ”added the expert. Several units of the Navy were sent to the site as part of the efforts to contain the contamination. The authorities also initiated an investigation to determine the cause of the spill. Matías Asun also asked the Chilean mining company CAP, which exploits natural resources on the island, to provide as much information as possible to clarify what happened.

 Indonesian energy giants oil spill affects 10 villages, seven beaches - At least 10 villages and seven beaches in West Java have been affected by the oil spill from state energy giant Pertamina's Offshore North West Java (ONWJ) block that has been polluting the sea for more than two weeks. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry's acting director general for oil and gas Djoko Siswanto said in Jakarta on Monday that the affected villages were spread across Karawang and Bekasi regencies. "According to data [from Pertamina], the oil spill has now followed the wind to the west, about 84 kilometres [from the source of the spill]. There are eight effected villages in Karawang and the rest are in Bekasi," he said. Djoko further said the US well control company Boots & Coots, which is affiliated to the US well service contractor Halliburton, had arrived and was expected to start the process of closing down the damaged well with a cement injection. Halliburton is Pertamina's subcontractor for the operation of the YY project, one of its three wells or known as the YYA-1 well. It is the source of the oil and gas spill that began on July 12. Dwi Soetjipto, the Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas) chairman, said Monday that the government's priorities were to minimise its environmental impact and close the damaged well soon.

 Environmentalists call Pertamina out on Karawang oil spill, prepare lawsuit - State energy company Pertamina has come under fire for allegedly failing to take proper action to clean up a large oil spill off the coast of Karawang in West Java. The Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi) said an estimated 3,000 barrels of oil have been seeping into the ocean each day since July 12, when a well-kick occurred at a freshly drilled well about 2 kilometers offshore. The oil spill had already spread over an area of more than 45 square kilometers by July 18, resulting in fishermen and shrimp farmers suffering major economic losses. Some of them are now preparing to file a lawsuit against Pertamina. "Our records from the ESA Sentinel 1 satellite can be accessed publicly. We are using a foreign-owned satellite and more data will become available on Aug. 2," said Dwi Sawung, manager for energy and urban affairs at Walhi. The environmental group claims that Pertamina has so far made no attempts to clean up the spill, which is spreading fast due to strong winds in the area. "The last report we received from people was that it had reached Untung Island in the Thousand Islands," Sawung said, referring to a group of islands off the coast of Jakarta. "Pertamina has not told the public about the management progress and the spread of the oil, which spilled from their drilling location," he added. Sawung said the oil giant's emergency procedures are inadequate, especially on informing the worst affected parties. The result is that people do not know how to deal with the situation, or how severe the impact is.

Oil spill across 150 meters of Ras Ghareb amid oil pollution - Oil stains covered a distance of 150 meters in the Dai al-Qamr area of Ras Ghareb in the Red Sea governorate on Tuesday amid warnings of the spots extending to other areas and impacting beaches and maritime life on the Red Sea. The Operations Room in the Ministry of Environment decided to form a committee of environmental researchers who will inspect the stains and dispatch samples to the laboratories of the Environmental Affairs Agency in Suez to determine the source and perpetrator of the spots before filing a lawsuit and determining the value of financial compensations expected for the affected marine environment. Red Sea Governor Ahmed Abdallah said that he met representatives of several oil companies to set a new mechanism for eliminating oil leakage and controlling leakages before they extend to the beaches of Hurghada. Abdallah noted that the government pays a lot of money to combat oil pollution, which damages health, economy, and the tourist environment in the governorate. He also stressed the importance of cooperation between the oil companies and the governorate in managing the crisis through a modern scientific method and contact with a company specialized in combating oil pollution. The Environment Ministry announced July 5 that it spotted a crude oil spill covering 1,500 meters off the coastal area of Ras Ghareb in the north of the Red Sea governorate and declared a state of emergency while cooperating with the Petroleum Ministry to determine the spill’s source. Crude oil spill pollution has covered the coastal area of Ras Ghareb five times, causing severe damage to the beaches and marine life of the Red Sea.

Increasing warnings of environmental disaster in the Red Sea -  There are growing warnings of a potential environmental disaster as a result of an oil spill from a floating tank in the Red Sea. The Government of Yemen government and the Houthi group have been reciprocally accusing each other in this regard.Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi has warned of a possible environmental disaster in the Red Sea because the Houthis have prevented a UN technical team from accessing the Tanker.“The “Safar” tanker is worn out, and its explosion or the leakage of its loads will result in one of the most significant oil leaks in history,” said the Information Minister of Hadi’s government, Muammar Mutaher Al-Eryani, in a series of tweets. He said that environmental disaster will affect marine life in the Red Sea and maritime traffic in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal, which are two of essential waterways in the world.The minister called on the world to stop the persistent intransigence of the Houthi group that prevents the United Nations team from maintaining the tanker.Al-Eryani revealed that the Houthis demand the tanker’s revenues – estimated at $80 million. He also warned of an environmental disaster that could spread to Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt.In contrast, the leader of the Houthi group, Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi, held Hadi’s government, the Arab Coalition, and the United Nations responsible for the environmental disaster that may be caused by the oil spill from the Safar oil tanker.The leader, who is a member of the Supreme Political Council of the Houthis authority in Sana’a, said via Twitter that his group “is not preventing the tanker’s maintenance” and is constantly asking the United Nations to intervene.

OPEC oil output hits lowest since 2011 on Saudi cut, sanctions: Reuters survey - (Reuters) - OPEC oil output hit an eight-year low in July as a further voluntary cut by top exporter Saudi Arabia deepened losses caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran and outages elsewhere in the group, a Reuters survey found. The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 29.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey showed, down 280,000 bpd from June’s revised figure and the lowest OPEC total since 2011. The survey suggests Saudi Arabia is sticking to its plan of voluntarily restraining output by more than called for by an OPEC-led supply deal to support the market. OPEC renewed the supply pact this month, shrugging off pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to pump more. Despite lower OPEC supplies, crude oil has fallen from a 2019 high above $75 a barrel in April to $65 on Wednesday, weighed down by concern about slowing economic growth. OPEC, Russia and other non-members, known as OPEC+, agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 this year. OPEC’s share of the cut is 800,000 bpd, to be delivered by 11 members and exempting Iran, Libya and Venezuela. In July, the 11 OPEC members bound by the agreement, which now runs until March 2020, achieved 163% of pledged cuts, the survey found. All three exempt producers also pumped less oil.

Column: Iran's crude exports are down, but estimates of how much vary wildly - (Reuters) - Iran’s crude oil exports last month were either less than two supertankers’ worth, or as much as one of the giant vessels every two days, depending on who has the most accurate data. The huge discrepancy between industry experts and analysts on the true volume of Iran’s exports shows just how difficult it has become to get accurate figures since the United States ended sanctions waivers for the country’s top eight buyers. Iran’s exports were down to as little as 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, not even enough to fill two very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which carry around 2 million barrels each, according to an industry source who tracks oil flows. Refinitiv - which monitors shipments based on vessel-tracking, port and other data - also estimates Iran exported about 120,000 bpd in July, if shipments of condensate, a type of light crude are included. If these numbers are accurate, it would represent a major drop from at least 400,000 bpd exported in June, and an even more dramatic plunge from the 910,000 bpd Iran exported in April, the month before the U.S. waivers expired. Iran is capable of shipping far more, with the 2.6 million bpd it exported in April 2018, the month before U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the multi-lateral deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear programme, indicative of the nation’s potential. The problem is that there are also numerous industry sources who believe Iran’s exports are substantially higher than what can be seen by ship-tracking data or confirmed by port officials. Vessels are supposed to keep their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals active at all times, but it is well known that many tankers used by Iran turn these systems off to mask their loadings and unloadings. Satellite tracking can help monitor activities like ship-to-ship transfers done on the open seas, but it’s also impossible to cover every square metre of ocean.

OPEC Sees Oil Surplus in 2020 Amid Shale Surge - OPEC forecasts that supplies from the cartel's rivals will grow by more than twice as much as global oil demand. At the start of July 2019, OPEC plus Russia decided to continue the agreement struck last year for at least another nine months, and daily production will remain 1.2 m barrels below last October’s level. In response, Brent crude rose to $67 per barrel (bbl) but has since drifted to $63.46 /bbl, a level which is below what many OPEC members require to finance their budgets. For example, the Saudi economy needs oil prices of around $80 a barrel to balance its budget, reports Al Jazeera in July. OPEC’s July Oil Market Report sees global GDP growth of 3.2 percent continuing into 2020 and world demand rising by 1.4 (million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year to around 100 mb/d. At the same time the report sees non OPEC member producers' output growing by 2.4 mb/d; more than twice as much as global oil demand. U.S. shale oil output reached a record 12 mb/d in April and OPEC‘s report notes that, “U.S. tight crude production is anticipated to continue to grow as new pipelines will allow more Permian crude to flow to U.S. Gulf coast export ports.” Consequently, the report forecasts a decline in demand for OPEC crude of 1.3 mb/d to 29.3 mb/d and a global glut of crude in 2020, implying a further cut of 560,000 barrels per day (bp/d) to maintain prices. What Next?The coming months could be marked by extreme turbulence and uncertainty in the oil market and within OPEC itself. America and Iran, an OPEC member, are flirting with war, as U.S. sanctions on Iran bite and Iran threatens the passage of tankers through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuela’s oil exports have collapsed through a combination of domestic mismanagement and U.S. sanctions against Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A, its national oil company. Production in Libya is vulnerable from the escalating conflict and Nigeria’s output is uncertain. These threats could ensure a further decline in OPEC’s market share from 39.2 percent in March as distinct from OPEC’s self-imposed production cuts. There is also uncertainty as to how long the OPEC alliance will be willing to lose market share to America. In 2018 America became the world’s largest crude producer and this year America will pump 1.2 m more barrels of crude a day. At December’s next scheduled OPEC meeting, participants face a problem of what to do next, especially if the world economy begins to slow and in particular, demand from OPEC’s largest customers China and India, falters. If crude prices remain low OPEC and Russia will face a difficult choice: let prices dip or cut production more steeply than envisaged--sacrificing market share and supporting U.S. shale.

Iraq Uses Old Trick To Get US Involved In Major Gas Hub - Last week saw two apparently independent major events occur in Iraq centred on its gas sector but a senior oil and gas industry source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told Oilprice.com they were a lot more connected than they seemed. The first was a statement by the Secretary General of the Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber, Seyed Hamid Hosseini, that Iran’s gas and electricity exports to Iraq are expected to reach US$5 billion by the end of the current Iranian calendar year, ending on 21 March 2020. The second was an announcement by Iraq’s Oil Minister, Thamir Ghadhban, that a U.S. consortium led by Honeywell has signed a memorandum of understanding for a huge deal that would reduce the country’s current level of gas flaring by nearly 20%. “Iraq under the auspices of Moqtada al-Sadr – the real power behind the [Adil] Abdul-Mahdi government is very good at playing the U.S. with the Iran card, so every time there is a hint that Iraq will continue with its historically close relationship with Iran, the U.S. comes in to offer the services of one of its companies at beneficial terms to Iraq,” the source said. The deal itself involves U.S. giant, Honeywell, partnering with another U.S. heavyweight, Bechtel, and Iraq’s state-owned South Gas to build the Ratawi gas hub In the first stage that is expected to last for three years this project will process up to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (scf/d) of ‘associated gas’ (generated as a by-product of crude production) at five southern Iraqi oil fields: Majnoon, Gharib al-Qurna, al-lhiss, al-Tubba, and al-Siba. It comes shortly after the granting of a new waiver from the U.S. for Iraq to import electricity from Iran, first awarded last November and subsequently renewed in December, March, and June, each time for 90 days. At the same time, Iraq has been steadily importing around one third of its total energy supplies from Iran, which equates to around 28 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas to feed its power stations. With peak summer power demand in Iraq perennially exceeding domestic generation, Iraq’s dependence on Iran is acute – a highly troubling situation for the U.S. in all circumstances, let alone the current impasse – and made worse still for its capacity to cause major civilian unrest in the country.

Tehran Urges China To Buy More Iranian Oil As It Feasts On Saudi Crude - Following China's crude imports from Iran plunging this summer, sinking almost 60% in June compared to a year earlier - which corresponded to Washington shutting down the waiver program in May - leaders in Tehran are urging China to buy more Iranian oil. China's crude shipments from Iran totaled 855,638 tons last month, which averages to 208,205 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 254,016 bpd in May, according figures from the General Administration of Customs, cited in a recent Reuters report.Iran's Vice President Jahangiri made the appeal to Beijing and "friendly" countries to up their Iranian crude purchases in statements Monday. “Even though we are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing some restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian oil,” Jahangiri reportedly told visiting senior Chinese diplomat Song Tao.He said this while also on Monday issuing a statement saying Iran stood ready to  "confront" American aggression in the region and that multilateralism must be upheld. “The foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to protect multilateralism and confront American hegemony,” Jahangiri said, according to the IRIB news agency.He added that Iran's recent move to breach uranium enrichment caps could be reversed should other parties return to upholding their side of the nuclear agreement. Simultaneously, China's oil purchases from Iran's rival Saudi Arabia have soared to record volume, totaling 1.89 million barrels a day last month, according to numbers cited in Bloomberg. "Shipments from the OPEC producer made up almost a fifth of its total oil purchases in June and was 64% higher than the previous month," while at the same time "Imports from Iran fell to the lowest since May 2010," according to Bloomberg.

Millions of barrels of Iranian crude are sitting in Chinese ports — and could disrupt oil markets - Iranian oil tankers have been quietly offloading their supply into Chinese ports, according to ship tracking data, despite U.S. sanctions on crude from the Islamic Republic. These flows, which experts say show no sign of stopping, could seriously disrupt U.S.-China trade talks as well as oil markets if Beijing decides to actually use them. Estimates as to the volume of Iranian crude that’s made its way to China between last January and May vary from 12 million to 14 million barrels, an amount that market watchers say could dramatically impact the price of oil. “If China were to aggressively purchase Iranian crude oil and/or draw down on these stored volumes, oil prices would likely fall by $5.00 to $7.00 per barrel,” “It would be a meaningful outlet for Iranian supplies that have been severely crimped by the sanctions.”. “It would also likely trigger a harsh response from the (President Donald) Trump administration.” But there is at least one reason Washington hasn’t sounded the alarm over these Persian barrels. China keeps them in what’s called “bonded storage,” which means the oil has not been cleared through Chinese customs and is not being used, therefore not actually violating U.S. sanctions. Kilduff estimates that another 20 million barrels are “en route, likely headed for this bonded storage.” This benefits both Iran and China in a few ways. Iran’s onshore and floating storage is rising in inventory due to reduced exports — but it can’t just stop pumping oil because its export capacity has plummeted. That’s because leaving the oil underground could lead to permanent damage to its oil wells. Putting it in Chinese bonded storage offers Iran a convenient solution, and one that means it doesn’t have to use so many of its tankers as floating storage facilities. The setup also advantages Iran, “because it gets its oil pre-positioned in the key Asian market, ready for sale, if sanctions get eased, a financial work-around is struck, or via barter transactions, where the oil is traded for goods.” Meanwhile, the situation advantages China because it gets a major discount on the oil and it functions as payment for work that Chinese companies are doing in Iran, analysts say.

Oil prices slip after 'constructive' talks on Iran's nuclear deal - Oil edges up on prospect of US interest rate cut - Oil prices edged higher on Monday as the prospect of an expected interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve overshadowed pessimism over U.S.-China trade talks and worries about slower global economic growth. Brent crude rose 16 cents to $63.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 51 cents to $56.71 a barrel. “Prices appear to be treading water ahead of this week’s events,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Management. Traders and investors are watching the Fed this week, with U.S. central bankers expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. U.S. President Donald Trump said a small Fed rate cut “is not enough.” Economic growth in the United States slowed less than expected in the second quarter, strengthening the outlook for oil consumption. Elsewhere, growth is slowing faster, partly because of the U.S.-China trade war over the past year. U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet this week for their first in-person talks since a G20 truce last month, but expectations are low after Trump said China might not want to sign a trade deal until after the 2020 U.S. election. “On the trade front, expectations may be low ahead of renewed Sino-U.S. talks, but any positive echoes this week will lift market sentiment,” said BNP Paribas global oil strategist Harry Tchilinguirian. Crude prices were also supported by supply risk as tensions remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Tensions have spiked between Iran and the West after Iranian commandos seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf this month in apparent retaliation for the seizure of an Iranian tanker by British forces near Gibraltar. Britain told Iran that if it wants to “come out of the dark” it must follow international rules and release the British-flagged tanker.

Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of Big Week - Oil prices seem trapped between supply outages on the one hand, and fears of weak demand on the other. WTI and Brent moved up slightly in early trading on Tuesday.. The oil majors will report earnings this week. Total and Equinorstarted things off a few days ago, reporting disappointing results. However, BP  beat analysts’ expectations on Tuesday. Royal Dutch Shell reports on Thursday, while Chevron and ExxonMobil report on Friday. As the Wall Street Journal reports, “The overriding challenge for large oil companies this period—and into the foreseeable future—will be how well they negotiate the transition to cleaner forms of energy and future-proof their businesses against changing public sentiment and policies that could add a surcharge on carbon emissions.” . As sanctions cut into Iranian oil exports, more oil is diverted into both onshore and floating storage. According to Kpler, storage has climbed above 110 million barrels. . Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment proposed new regulations on air pollution from the oil and gas industry. The rules would require mandatory inspections on leaks, close a loophole that allows companies to begin drilling without air permits, and an array of other regulations on emissions from pipelines, storage tanks and truck unloadings. “We’re going to reduce statewide emissions by 80% by 2030,” John Putnam, the state health department’s environmental programs director, said at a public meeting. “We’re still trying to figure out exactly how to get there. We cannot do it without regulating this oil and gas sector.” U.S. electric utilities are set toincrease capital expenditures as they shut down coal and turn to other forms of generation, according to CFRA Equity Research. Spending for the S&P 1500 Electric Utilities Index could grow by 5.5 percent in 2019 and 4.5 percent in 2020.

Oil jumps 1.5% on expectations of Fed rate cut, supply drawdown - Oil prices rose on Tuesday, on track to close at a two-week high, on optimism the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week for the first time in more than 10 years, boosting demand expectations in the world’s biggest oil user. Meanwhile, ahead of weekly data, crude oil inventories in the United States were also forecast to have dropped for a seventh straight week. Analysts also noted the market was up on optimism over U.S.-China trade talks, which could boost oil demand around the world. On its second to last day as the front-month Brent crude for September delivery were up $1.27, or 2.0%, at $64.98 a barrel by 2:22 p.m. EDT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.40, or 2.5%, to $58.27. That put both contracts on track to rise for a fourth day in a row to what would be their highest closes since July 15. “WTI spiked in late trade after passing through $57.50 a barrel, which was a psychological resistance, and $57.64, which was a recent trading high,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago. For the month, however, both contracts were still set to decline due to lingering worries about oil demand with Brent down over 2% and WTI down almost 1%. “Crude oil moved higher today partly due to anticipation of another meaningful inventory draw this week along with tensions that remain escalated in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Brian Kessens, senior portfolio manager at energy investment manager Tortoise, noting “the prospect of lower rates and U.S.-China trade talks are buoying economic prospects.” U.S. central bankers will begin their two-day meeting later on Tuesday and were expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. 

Oil Prices Up More Than $1 - Both the WTI and Brent contracts rallied Tuesday amid Fed speculation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures rallied Tuesday, buoyed by speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a quarter-percentage-point cut in a key interest rate Wednesday. The WTI for September delivery rose $1.18 Tuesday to settle at $58.05 per barrel. The contract peaked at $58.32 and bottomed out at $56.96. The September Brent price settled at $64.72 per barrel, reflecting a $1.01 gain. Barani Krishnan, senior commodities analyst with Investing.com, told Rigzone that a price bump from a Fed interest rate cut could soon be erased by ongoing oil market considerations. “It’s supposed to be the week when assets from stocks to commodities get supercharged from ‘rate cut excitement,’” said Krishnan. “Yet, there’s a nagging feeling that whatever gains oil tacks on could be diminished by the end of the week as demand worries continue to tug at the market’s underbelly. Demand worries are continuing to haunt oil despite prospects of the first U.S. rate cut in a decade that could be a boon for commodities.” In addition, Krishnan pointed out that – despite oil’s recent positive momentum – dissipating Iran-related tensions could be the antidote for any crude rally. “If tensions over Iran ease further or if Tehran manages to strike a new nuclear deal with the Trump administration to suspend sanctions on its oil, there are concerns that up to 2 million barrels per day more of crude could enter the market, negating OPEC production cuts and adding to current oversupply,” said Krishnan. Krishnan added that the above supply scenario warrants serious market consideration. 

WTI Extends Gains Above $58 After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Draw -- Oil rallied notably today as traders anticipated a growth jolt from The Fed tomorrow and tensions remain in the MidEast as Iran threatened to choke supplies. “The crude oil market loves trade headlines,” “Even if they were negative earlier in the day, at the end of the day the countries are trying to make a deal happen. They’re not there to fail, and that supports oil.” API

• Crude -6.024mm (-2.75mm exp)
• Cushing -1.449mm
• Gasoline -3.135mm
• Distillates -890k

After the prior week's shockingly large draw, crude inventories were expected to modestly drop further but once again surprised to the downside with a bigger-than-expected 6mm drop in stocks (and big draw in gasoline also)... WTI had surged back above $58 ahead of the API print and extended gains after the surprise API Print

 WTI Extends Gains After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws  - Oil prices extended gains overnight off the back of API inventory data and a drop in Libya production“I expect draws in crude stockpiles, but not as big as we’ve seen in the last few weeks,” says Mark L Waggoner, president at commodity brokerage Excel Futures. “Refinery run rates will be ramping up a bit because we’re still in the middle of summer and driving season” DOE:

• Crude -8.50mm (-3.25mm exp)
• Cushing -1.533mm
• Gasoline -1.791mm
• Distillates -894k

Crude inventories have fallen - significantly - for seven straight weeks, but last week saw stocks dropping across the entire energy complex as Barry-driven shut-ins came back online. This streak pushes US Crude inventories to their lowest since Nov 2018... After the prior week's collapse in crude production (thanks to Storm Barry shut-ins), production rebounded as expected...WTI hovered around $58.50 ahead of the DOE print and extended gains after the big draws...

Oil prices rise for fifth day after US stocks decline - Oil prices rose for a fifth day on Wednesday, buoyed by a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories and as investors awaited a widely expected cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the first in more than 10 years. Brent crude was up 44 cents, or 0.7%, at $65.16 a barrel by 0324 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $58.46 a barrel. “The market is quite optimistic leading into what the Fed is going to do on interest rates and as a result of that we’ll see more demand,” Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Probis Group in Sydney, said by phone, referring to the widely expected cut. Central bankers in the United States began their two-day meeting on Tuesday and were expected to lower borrowing costs for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. U.S. consumer spending and prices rose moderately in June, pointing to slower economic growth and benign inflation that cemented expectations of Fed rate cuts. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday reiterated his call for the Fed to make a large interest rate cut. That would be an unlikely move by the central bankers, Barratt said. Despite the gains in prices, Brent is set to ease in July due to ongoing worries about demand, heading for a decline of about 2%, while WTI is down 1 cent. Still, U.S. inventories have been falling in recent weeks suggesting demand concerns are overstated. Crude stockpiles fell again last week, along with gasoline and distillate inventories, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday. “There is a definitive seasonal trend emerging as inventory draws continue to beat analysts’ expectations by a mile suggesting analysts have grossly underestimated consumption and the breadth of seasonal demand this year,” VM Markets Pte said in a note. Crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended July 26 to 443 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels, the API data showed. If confirmed by U.S. government data on Wednesday morning, the decline would put crude stocks down for a seventh week in a row. That would be longest stretch since they fell for a record 10 consecutive weeks ending in January 2018.

Oil drops as Fed signals rate cuts may be limited - Oil dropped on Thursday, declining for the first time in six days, after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for a string of interest rate cuts and as rising U.S. output helped keep the market well supplied.The Federal Reserve reduced rates on Wednesday, but against expectations the head of the U.S. central bank said the move might not be the start of a lengthy series of cuts to shore up the economy against global economic weakness.Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell $1.49 to $63.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.77, or 3% at $56.81.“A relatively upbeat mood in risky assets took a spectacular U-turn after last night’s Fed decision,” Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said. “The dollar started to strengthen and equities and oil went into a kind of meltdown mode.” A rising dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on commodities priced in the U.S. currency. The dollar hit a two-year peak against the euro on Thursday after the Fed decision. 1/8USD/ 3/8Oil’s drop came despite a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories and a fall in OPEC production in July, typically bullish drivers for prices. But U.S. output rose in a market that analysts say is well supplied.“Supply is plentiful and demand growth is showing signs of weakening globally because of trade conflicts, Brexit and other events that tend to potentially weaken economic growth and, hence, oil demand,” Victor Shum, senior partner at IHS in Singapore, said.“There’s a lot of oil out there. U.S. output is growing strongly.”

Oil prices nosedive 8% on Trump tariff threat -- worst day in more than 4 years - US oil prices collapsed Thursday after President Donald Trump fired another shot in the US-China trade war. Trump's vow to impose a 10% tariff on another $300 billion of US imports from China is worrying investors that a severe economic slowdown could eat into demand for oil and other commodities. The escalation also raises the risk that China will retaliate by imposing tariffs on US oil.Crude tumbled 8% to $53.95. That's the biggest single-day decline since February 2015. Oil was already in the red prior to Trump's tweet, which then accelerated those losses. "This is heightening fear of a major slowdown," said Ryan Fitzmaurice, energy strategist at Rabobank.US stocks and Treasury bond yields also fell sharply on the news, underscoring the worry on Wall Street.Investors were already on high-alert for signs of weakness in the economy, especially after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates this week for the first time in nearly 11 years."Prices were weak prior to the tweet. And then once it came out, it really snowballed," Fitzmaurice said. Earlier on Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management said American manufacturing activity tumbled in July to the weakest level in nearly three years. Economists had anticipated a slight improvement in factory activity.

Oil falls most in 4 years as Trump imposes more tariffs on China -Oil prices plummeted more than 7% on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark posting its worst day in more than four years, after President Donald Trump said he would impose additional tariffs Chinese imports starting Sept. 1. The drop in Brent crude was the steepest in more than three years, undoing a fragile oil rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories even as global demand looked shaky due to the U.S.-China trade dispute. Trump's announcement of an additional 10% levy on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods undermined hopes that the world's two largest economies had reached a detente in a year-long conflict that has weakened growth worldwide. Brent crude fell $4.55, or 6.99%, to settle at $60.50 a barrel, after having dropped to $60.02, its lowest level since June 13. The international benchmark's decline on Thursday was its biggest daily percentage drop since February 2016. "The U.S.-China trade war has damaged the energy demand outlook greatly, already, and this will only add to those concerns, " said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Management. "The trade war is clearly far from over." Wall Street abruptly reversed its gains following Trump's tweets, after spending most of the session on track for the best day since June. Bond prices also rose, causing yields to drop as investors sought out safe assets. Oil prices were already weak on continued reaction to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed cut rates as expected, but market sentiment turned negative after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the move might not be the start of a lengthy series of cuts to shore up the economy against global weakness.

Oil just had its worst day in years—here's how experts are playing energy stocks -  Oil prices saw their worst trading day in four years on Thursday after the Trump administration said it would put further tariffs on Chinese goods. Energy stocks, already under pressure from a dramatic quarterly profit miss at exploration and production company Concho Resources, fell further, with theEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund, or XLE, dropping more than 2%. And although market watchers often see drops like these as chances to buy high-quality names that have been overly punished, “it’s hard to call it a contrarian opportunity right now” in the energy sector, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak.“This group has really been dead money most of this year,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” referencing the XLE. “It’s been a rough ride. And ... we see the XLE has formed what’s called a symmetrical triangle pattern.” That pattern tells Maley two things: that if the XLE can break out of the triangle soon, it could make for a big move; and that the longer it trades within the triangle’s boundaries, the smaller that breakout move will be. All in all, for Maley, “it’s hard to make a compelling bet to the upside right now,” he said.But that wasn’t the case for Mark Tepper, president and CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners.Despite the fact that “energy’s just in a death spiral,” Tepper still saw buying opportunities in the space, which he agreed has been “dead money” for years.“In our opinion, if you’re investing in energy stocks, it’s all about being selective and finding that right entry point, and there’s lots of companies today that are being unfairly punished,” he said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “FANG’s one of them, Diamondback Energy. And, with the pullback today, I would view that as a buying opportunity. ”As the lowest-cost producer in the oil-rich Permian Basin area of western Texas, Diamondback’s advantage is that it “can actually make money when oil’s below [$]50 bucks a barrel,” Tepper said.

Oil prices rebound after Trump trade tariffs trigger plunge - Oil prices rose more than $1 on Friday, rebounding from their biggest falls in years after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies and crude consumers. Brent crude futures slumped more than 7% on Thursday, their steepest drop in more than three years. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell nearly 8%, posting its worst day in more than four years. The collapse ended a fragile rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories, even as global demand looked shaky because of the trade dispute. Brent futures rose $1.53, or 2.6%, to $62.03 a barrel by 0220 GMT, while WTI futures gained $1.02, or 1.9%, to $54.97 a barrel. Trump said on Thursday he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1 and could raise tariffs further if China’s President Xi Jinping fails to move more quickly to strike a trade deal. The announcement extends Trump’s tariffs to nearly all of China’s imports into the United States and marks an abrupt end to a temporary truce in a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains and roiled financial markets. Brent and U.S. crude are heading for their first weekly declines in three, on track for falls of more than 2%. “Global growth estimates have been under pressure from the tariff war and the move by the U.S. erases all the goodwill gained earlier in the week when U.S. negotiators were in Shanghai to kick start trade talks,”  There have been mounting signs this week of the economic toll of the trade dispute between the United States and China, which reported this week slowing manufacturing activity in July. U.S. manufacturing activity also slipped last month, dropping to a near three-year low, and construction spending fell in June as investment in private construction projects tumbled to its lowest level in 1-1/2 years. The economic slowdown has translated into falling oil demand in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer.

 Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Trade War Worsens-- Oil is set for a weekly loss after the steepest one-day drop in more than four years as President Donald Trump abruptly escalated the trade war with China, stoking concerns over slowing growth. While futures in New York rebounded on Friday, prices are still far from recovering the 7.9% slump on Thursday, the most since February 2015. Trump said 10% levies will be imposed Sept. 1 on $300 billion in Chinese goods after a round of trade talks on Wednesday ended without a breakthrough. The threat compounded fears about declining American manufacturing activity after the Federal Reserve dashed prospects for serial rate cuts to boost growth. Oil last month capped its smallest monthly move since 1991 as it was caught between concerns global demand may slow and fears crude flows from the Middle East may be disrupted. OPEC’s output slid in July to the lowest in five years as U.S. sanctions on Iran crimped exports from the Persian Gulf nation. Trump’s “latest comment definitely raised the prospect of the dispute extending for longer,” said Kim Kwangrae, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. “Given the wider concern over slowing growth has already been reflected in prices, it remains to be seen whether oil will fall further from here as we have geopolitical risks still lingering in the Middle East.” West Texas Intermediate oil for September delivery added 84 cents, or 1.6%, to $54.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:01 a.m. in London. The contract slid $4.63 on Thursday and is down 2.5% this week. Brent for October settlement gained $1.16 to $61.66 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Front-month prices are down 2.8% this week. The benchmark global crude traded at a premium of $6.81 to WTI for the same month.

 Oil Prices Rebound but Down for the Week- The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil contracts on Friday regained some of the value that they lost the previous day. September WTI futures, which lost nearly 8 percent on Thursday, added $1.71 Friday to settle at $55.66 per barrel. The contract peaked at $56.05 and bottomed out at $54.15. Compared to the July 26 close, the WTI is down 1 percent. Brent crude oil for October delivery ended the day at $61.89 per barrel, reflecting a $1.39 gain. The contract is down 2.5 percent for the week. Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Business with the University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business, told Rigzone that both the WTI and Brent advanced early in the week on positive economic news only to be “trashed” Thursday on news that the Trump administration plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports effective next month. He added, however, that Friday’s price movements represented something of a realization. “Today’s higher prices are the result of retracement from a fall that was ‘too far, too fast’ as well as profit-taking by those who shorted the market on the way down yesterday,” Seng said. “Heading into yesterday, oil prices had climbed steadily higher from last week in anticipation of, and the actual announcement that, the Fed was lowering interest rates for the first time since 2008.” Seng added that investors were disappointed, however, that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s outlook suggested no future rate cuts in the short term. Consequently, the U.S. dollar strengthened and supported crude oil’s initial decline Thursday, he said. “The final blow occurred with the announcement of the new 10 percent tariffs to be placed on Chinese imports as trade talks between the U.S. and China are not progressing,” he said. “Today, prices have rebounded about three percent. The U.S./China trade situations overshadowed a very bullish weekly inventory report.”

Iran calls European fleet in the Gulf ‘hostile’ and ‘provocative’  -- Iran denounced as "provocative" and "hostile" a British proposal for a European-led naval mission to escort tankers in the Gulf amid soaring tensions over the seizure of ships.The condemnation on Sunday came as a Royal Navy warship arrived in the Gulf to accompany British-flagged vessels passing through the vital Strait of Hormuz.The HMS Duncan joined the Frigate HMS Montrose in the Gulf to defend freedom of navigation, Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Sunday."We heard that they intend to send a European fleet to the Persian Gulf, which naturally carries a hostile message, is provocative, and will increase tensions," said Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei. Britain said on Monday it was planning a European-led force to escort tankers through the world's busiest oil shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iran's seizureof a United Kingdom-flagged vessel on July 19. The capture of the Stena Impero came two weeks after British authorities detained an Iranian tanker - the Grace 1 - off its overseas territory Gibraltar over allegations it was breaching EU sanctions on Syria.

Iran Slams Hostile Message As 2nd UK Warship Arrives In Crowded Gulf - On the same day the large British warship HMS Duncan arrived in the Persian Gulf to assist the MHS Montrose in providing safety escorts to UK-flagged ships against the threat of Iranian seizure in the vital oil transit waterway, Tehran has again slammed the UK-led initiative of a joint European fleet patrolling the region.  An Iranian government spokesman warned on Sunday that a joint European task force operating so close to Iran's coast “sends a hostile message” and is “provocative and will increase tensions,” according to semi-official Fars News Agency. The rhetoric is nothing new; however what is new and poses immense danger for the prospect of stumbling toward major conflict is the frequency of US and UK warships' movement in the increasingly "crowded" narrow Strait of Hormuz.  Britain's controversial call for a “European-led maritime protection mission” quickly gained the support last week of key EU nations France and Germany, with Denmark and The Netherlands also joining the initiative. The BBC reports that the HMS Montrose has thus far escorted 35 vessels through the strait, according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The larger HMS Duncan frigate will further join what Britain has dubbed "freedom of navigation" operations not just for UK vessels but "also our international partners and allies," according Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. This as London has kept up pressure for the release of the still impounded Stena Impero, and after Iran's leaders last week appeared to offer an "exchange" of vessels of sorts, demanding the release of the Grace 1, which had been seized by Royal Marines early this month off Gibraltar. Iranian Government Spokesman Ali Rabiyee said further on Sunday that Iran "welcomes" the mediation of certain countries, but that ultimately "seizure of the British tanker was based on legal principles but Britain should release our oil tanker as soon as possible."

Iran not to allow US, UK to take control of Hormuz Strait - Mohsen Rezaei made the remarks on Sunday in a meeting with a Chinese delegation headed by Song Tao, head of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), who arrived in Tehran on Sunday. In the meeting, Rezaei expressed his appreciation to Song Tao for the good cooperation of China’s ruling party with the Iranian Expediency Council (EC). The EC secretary also referred to the Iranian Parliament speaker’s visit to China as indicating the start of a new phase in strategic relations between Iran and China. He further attached great importance to the Chinese delegation’s visit to Tehran, expressing hope that the level of the two countries’ relations would increase to a considerable extent after their visit. Rezaei also pointed to the new developments in the region, saying “we live in the energy region of the world. Any kind of insecurity and conflict in this region would carry harm to global peace and security.” He added “Americans and Britain have been fanning the flames of war in the Persian Gulf region and they want to pretend they have control over the Strait of Hormuz and the movement of vessels. Of course, we do not allow this to happen. In the meantime, we expect cooperation from our friends in China.” Rezaei added that Iran is not seeking war but will defend itself, while saying that the Americans want conflict and seek to increase the tensions.

Tanker Seizures & The Threat To The Global Economy From Resurgent Imperialism - The British seizure of the Iranian tanker off Gibraltar was illegal. There is no doubt of that whatsoever. The Iranian response to the seizure of its tanker in the Strait of Gibraltar, by the seizure of a British Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, was also illegal, though more understandable as a reaction. The implications for the global economy of the collapse of the crucial international law on passage through straits would be devastating. It may seem improbable that the UK and or France would ever seek to close the Dover Strait, but in the current crazed climate it is no longer quite impossible to imagine the UK seeking to mess up access to Rotterdam and Hamburg. It is still easier to imagine them seeking to close the Dover Strait against the Russian Navy. Yet the essential freedom of navigation through the Kerch strait, respected by Russia which controls it, is necessary to the survival of Ukraine as a country. For Turkey to close the Bosphorus would be catastrophic and is a historically recurring possibility. Malaysia and Indonesia would cause severe dislocation to Australia and China by disrupting the strait of Malacca and the Suharto government certainly viewed that as an advantage from which it should have the right to seek to benefit, and was a continued nuisance in UN Law of the Sea discussions. These are just a few examples. The US Navy frequently sails through the Taiwan Strait to assert the right of passage though straits. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is perhaps the most crucial of all to the world economy, but I hope that the above examples are sufficient to convince you that the right of passage through straits, irrespective of territorial waters, is an absolutely essential pillar of international maritime law and international order. The Strait of Gibraltar is vital and Britain has absolutely no right to close it to Iran or Syria. If the obligation on coastal states to keep maritime straits open were lost, it would lead to economic dislocation and even armed conflict worldwide. 

No Quid Pro Quo - UK Rejects Iran's Offer To Swap Seized Tankers - Britain this week has rejected an Iranian offer to swap each other's captured tankers, as the crisis involving the British-flagged Stena Impero and the Iranian oil filled Grace 1 previously captured by Royal Marines off Gibraltar on July 4 has remained deadlocked. Most observers agree it's virtually a "foregone conclusion" that the tankers will ultimately be traded for one another, however, UK officials are still stalling over what they say are the norms of international law.  “There is no quid pro quo,” Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab asserted on BBC radio. “This is not about some kind of barter. This is about the international law and the rules of the international legal system being upheld and that is what we will insist on.” In boarding the Grace 1 on July 4 just as it sought to enter the Mediterranean, British authorities claimed to have thwarted illegal EU sanctions busting related to Syria, as the Grace 1 was reportedly bound for the Syrian port of Baniyas to offload some 2 million barrels of oil to the fuel-starved, war-torn country. Leaders in Tehran accused the UK of simply doing America's bidding, however. Last Wednesday Iran's president initially suggested an equal good faith swap of sorts. He proposed that should the UK release the Grace 1, Iran would do likewise and immediately release the Stena Impero.  "If Britain steps away from the wrong actions in Gibraltar, they will receive an appropriate response from Iran," Rouhani said Wednesday addressing a weekly cabinet meeting. The words came the same day Britain had reportedly sent a mediator to Iran seeking to negotiate the ship's return and its 23 detained crew members.

Iran, Russia Planning Joint Naval Drill In Contested Gulf Waters - Russia and Iran are planning a joint naval exercise scheduled within the next year, commander of Iran's Navy Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi announced Monday, according to state media. Semi-official Fars has reported it will take place by March 2020 in the Indian Ocean, and will be staged as far north as the strategic and increasingly tense Strait of Hormuz. “A coordination meeting will be held between the two sides in this regard,” he said while on a three day visit to Russia. “When we speak of the Indian Ocean, perhaps the most important part of which is the northern region where it’s linked to the Sea of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and also the Persian Gulf,” Khanzadi said from Saint Petersburg. . The Iranian naval chief is in Moscow to sign a 'memorandum of understanding' with the Russian Ministry of Defense for expanded mutual ties, and to observe a Russian naval parade. "This is the first MoU of its kind and can be regarded as a turning point in Tehran-Moscow military relations," Khanzadi said of the largely symbolic agreement.This is expected to include further development of military cooperation in the Caspian Sea, though nothing specific was indicated regarding the world's largest inland body of water between Europe and Asia. Iran is also trying to shore up the support of powerful allies as it's preparing to resist US and UK military pressures in the vital Strait of Hormuz, and as it attempts to weather Washington's economic and energy sanctions storm.This comes further as a weekend report in UK media said London is mulling offering Russia a seat at the table on its European-led maritime coalition to safeguard tankers from Iranian attacks, something Moscow would likely rebuff, or alternately Moscow could actually consider such a proposal in order to have a hand in ensuring the avoidance of escalation.  Iran and Russia have going years back held joint naval drills in the Caspian Sea, however, wide-ranging drills in the Indian Ocean stretching up through the Persian Gulf would certainly gain the Pentagon's attention and hold the potential for conflict as the region gets increasingly crowded with western naval assets to protect international shipping lanes.

Oil Tankers’ Tracking Signals Are Vanishing in the Strait of Hormuz - Oil tanker owners are finding a way to reduce the risks of navigating the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important -- and lately most dangerous -- energy chokepoint: vanish from global tracking systems. Copying from Iran’s own playbook, at least 20 ships turned off their transponders while passing through the strait this month, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Others appear to have slightly altered their routes once inside the Persian Gulf, sailing closer than usual to Saudi Arabia’s coast en route to ports in Kuwait or Iraq. Before the latest increase in tensions with Iran, ships were more consistent about signaling their positions as they passed through a waterway that handles a third of seaborne petroleum. Once inside the Gulf, shipping routes took them fairly close to the Iranian coast, skirting the offshore South Pars/North gas field shared by Iran and Qatar. Most still do, but a growing number appear to be trying something new. It’s little surprise that ships are doing everything possible to minimize risk. The Gulf region has witnessed a spate of vessel attacks, tanker seizures and drone shoot-downs since May, all against the backdrop of U.S. sanctions aimed at crippling Iran. War-risk insurance soared for tanker owners seeking to load cargoes in the region. Two British warships are now situation in the waters around Hormuz where they were recently escorting the nation’s ships. The U.S. 5th Fleet also permanently operates in the region. On Wednesday, the Norwegian Maritime Authority advised the country’s flagged vessels to minimize transit time in Iran’s territorial waters. Tanker captains have become increasingly nervous about the risks of getting caught up in the conflict. See QuickTake on the Strait of Hormuz At least 12 vessels loaded in Saudi Arabia and shut off their transponders while passing through the strait within the past month. They include the supertanker Kahla, which turned off its signal on July 20 before passing through the strait. It reappeared two days later on the other side of the waterway. Likewise, at least eight vessels that loaded in Iraq and Kuwait went dark while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. A vessel shipping from the U.A.E. also dropped off tracking systems. The apparent shutdown of signals coincides with a slew of disruptions in the region. On July 11, the Royal Navy intervened to prevent Iran from impeding a tanker operated by BP Plc from passing through Hormuz. Three days later, Iran seized a Panama-flagged vessel. On July 19, Iranian forces took control of a British-flagged tanker in retaliation for similar action by U.K. authorities. The vessel, the Stena Impero, remains impounded.

U.A.E. Sends Coast Guard Delegation to Tehran, Mehr Reports -- The United Arab Emirates sent a seven-member delegation from its coast guard for a meeting with counterparts in the Iranian capital Tehran, Iran’s state-run Mehr news agency reported without citing anyone. Illegal trafficking and shared maritime borders are among the topics to be discussed, according to the report. The meeting is the first between the coast guards of the two nations since 2013, Mehr said. It comes after the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. sent tensions in the Persian Gulf soaring, with American officials blaming Iran for recent attacks on oil tankers off the U.A.E. coast.

Turkey Mulling (Another) Military Operation in Northeastern Syria– Turkey’s top military brass and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar held a security meeting on Thursday and discussed a potential military operation in northeastern Syria, immediately after three days of talks with a US delegation over setting up a safe zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.The Anadolu news agency reported that the meeting took place under the leadership of Minister Akar and with the participation of Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Güler as well as commanders of the land, naval and air forces.It said the meeting was focused on Turkish-US talks on the safe zone and Turkey’s potential unilateral military operation in the eastern Euphrates region in a bid to end the presence of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) along the border. James Jeffrey, the US special envoy for Syria, had meetings with Minister Akar, Presidential Chief Foreign Policy Advisor İbrahim Kalın and Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal earlier this week. The talks concentrated on the details of the safe zone, an idea that was put back on the agenda by President Donald Trump in mid-January 2019.The fresh ideas on the modalities of the safe zone tabled by Jeffrey did not satisfy Turkey.“We have conveyed our views and proposals to them. We are awaiting an immediate reply,” Akar was quoted as saying by Anadolu on Thursday.  “We have once again underlined that we have no tolerance for any delay and that we’ll take action when necessary.”

Israel Fought Behind The Scenes To Drop Turkey From US F-35 Program- Report -  A new bombshell report making headlines in Israeli media alleges Tel Aviv went to great lengths to exert pressure on Washington to block the sale of US F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey."Israel worked behind the scenes to ensure the United States blocked the sale of its F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey as part of its efforts to preserve its military qualitative edge in the region," The Times of Israel revealed Thursday, citing a prior Israeli Channel 12 report."Israel in recent months lobbied Washington to drop Ankara from the F-35 program after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ahead with a purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system that would give Turkey advanced air capabilities," the report continued. Though neither US nor Israeli officials have commented on the alleged lobbying campaign, it's consistent with the fact that Israel has seen growing Russian-Turkish defense ties as a significant threat to both its anti-Iran policy and actions in Syria. And further, Ankara and Tel Aviv have a long history of clashing over Palestinian related issues. Last month the White House announced Turkey has been effectively booted from the F-35 program for procuring Russia's S-400 anti-air defense system, further entrenching Moscow's growing influence and security arc in the Middle East. Crucially, both Israel and Turkey were set to be the only countries outside the United States which possessed the advanced Lockheed-made fighter. But it appears Israel did its best to ensure it'd be the only one, as The Times of Israel noted: Israel has agreed to purchase at least 50 F-35 fighter jets from the US defense contractor Lockheed Martin. So far, 16 aircraft have been delivered, and the remaining planes are slated to arrive batches of twos and threes until 2024. Israel is the second country after the US to receive the F-35 from Lockheed Martin and one of the few allowed to modify the state-of-the-art aircraft, known in Israel as the Adir.

Mystery Airstrikes On Iraqi Camp Were Israeli Stealth Jets In Anti-Iran Escalation --Regional experts had immediately suspected the possibility of an Israeli air raid after a pro-Iranian militia arms depot in Iraq was obliterated during a mysterious attack on July 19, and another reported follow-up attack this past Sunday.The attack happened around 80 km from the Iranian border and 40 km north-east of Baghdad at Camp Ashraf, former home to the Iranian exile group Mojahedin-e Khalq, but now reportedly in the hands of Iranian intelligence and paramilitaries. Speculation was rampant in the days that followed as to the source of the 'mysterious' air strikes - or what was also initially reported as a drone strike - however, some pointed the finger at an American operation targeting Iranian militants inside Iraq. But now Israeli and regional media, citing western diplomats, have confirmed it was a nearly unprecedented Israeli operation on Iraqi soil — representing a major escalation and expansion of Israel's anti-Iran operations. Israel reportedly launched a total of two separate air strike operations on the camp using its US-supplied F-35 stealth fighter jets.  According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz: Israel has expanded the scope of its anti-Iranian attacks and struck targets in Iraq, the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Tuesday.  According to the report, which cites anonymous Western diplomats, Israel struck Iranian warehouses storing arms and missiles at Camp Ashraf, north-east of Baghdad, twice in the past month. On July 19, the base was struck by an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, the sources added. The base was allegedly attacked again on Sunday.

The UN Just Rebuked Two Close US Allies For Shocking Child Death Tolls - As US diplomatic officials around the globe are no doubt lecturing 'official enemies' over human rights, and enforcing crippling sanctions from Caracas to Damascus to Tehran to Moscow, they might pause for a moment and look closer to home, as days ago the United Nations slammed key American allies Saudi Arabia and Israel for killing an appalling high number of children.  Not unrelated, as we've noted before, the two countries have also grown closer in their relationship over the past years in common cause against Iran and related to Syria regime change policy.  First the Saudis, which found themselves for the first time under unprecedented international scrutiny following the December 2018 Jamal Khashoggi killing in Istanbul. Reuters reported Friday: A Saudi Arabia-led military coalition fighting in Yemen killed or injured 729 children during 2018, accounting for nearly half the total child casualties, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a report to the Security Council on Friday that blacklisted the coalition for a third year. It should be noted that this is a very conservative estimate among the some 100,000 total number of people believed killed as a result of the four-year long Saudi coalition bombing campaign over Yemen, as a recent report in The Guardian tallied.   And of the Israelis, Reuters related the following concerning the UN censure: Guterres also reported that the highest number of Palestinian children had been killed or injured last year since 2014, mainly by Israeli forces, though no parties were blacklisted in the annex to the annual Children in Armed Conflict report, seen by Reuters. The UN report indicated 56 Palestinian children killed by Israeli forces in 2018, which is the highest since the 2014 war in Gaza.  Perhaps more astounding though, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council in his report that Israeli troops injured nearly 2,700 children “in the context of demonstrations, clashes and search and arrest operations.”

Facebook Dismantles Saudi-Linked Network of Fake Accounts — Facebook said on Thursday it had dismantled a network of fake accounts and pages linked to the Saudi government that promotes propaganda and targets Riyadh’s adversaries. More than 350 accounts and pages with some 1.4 million followers had been taken down, the social media site said. It is the first time such action has been linked to the Saudi government. Like Russia and Iran, Saudi Arabia has sought to influence public opinion through social media. Under the direction of Saud al-Qahtani, a close aide to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who has been heavily implicated in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a network of pro-Saudi social media accounts known as “the flies” has been set up in recent years.  The accounts on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter seek to laud the crown prince and pour scorn on the kingdom’s adversaries and detractors. Many target Qatar, a neighbouring emirate that Riyadh and its allies have placed under a blockade in an attempt to alter its policies. The accounts were also responsible for spreading disinformation following Khashoggi’s murder by a team of Saudi agents in Istanbul in October.  “For this operation, our investigators were able to confirm that the individuals behind this are associated with the government of Saudi Arabia,” said Nathaniel Gleicher, Facebook’s head of cybersecurity policy.  “Any time we have a link between an information operation and a government, that’s significant and people should be aware.”

Bahrain Follows U.S. Lead on Executions -- Citing the existence of the death penalty in the United States as justification, Bahrain’s government executed political prisoners Ali al-Arab and Ahmed al-Malali by firing squad on the morning of Saturday, July 27. Another man was also executed in a separate, non-political case. The killings came two days after the Trump administration announced it was reinstating the federal death penalty after an absence of nearly two decades.The two political prisoners had been convicted of killing a police officer in 2017 in a trial that involved over 50 defendants. I’ve been in Bahraini courtrooms and seen how these mass, sham political trials work, how defendants’ claims of tortured confessions are dismissed, and fabricated evidence permitted. The process doesn’t much resemble anything recognisable as a fair hearing that would meet international legal standards. In May, five United Nations experts called for the executions to be stopped “amid serious concerns that [the two men] were coerced into making confessions through torture and did not receive a fair trial.” The day before the executions, Agnes Callamard, UN Special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, urged that the men be spared. “I remind Bahrain that the only thing that distinguishes capital punishment from an arbitrary execution is full respect for the most stringent due process and fair trial guarantees,” she said.

Dubai Ruler's 'Escaped' Wife Seeking Forced Marriage Protection Order In UK Court - A dramatic legal battle between the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, and his estranged wife, Jordanian princess Haya bint al-Hussein, over their children’s custody began this week in a London court and has already witnessed a "non-molestation order" and a "forced marriage protection order" brought against the powerful Emirati sheikh by his wife. She's reportedly been hiding out in London and says she's "afraid for her life."It was first reported weeks ago that the 45-year-old daughter of late King Hussein had fled the UAE with her two children, seeking to escape her billionaire (and allegedly abusive) husband, which drove speculation as to whether Dubai would invoke diplomatic powers to try and force her back to the UAE.   She fears she could be abducted and rendered back to Dubai, similar to what happened in the case of Sheikha Latifa — daughter of the Dubai ruler who mounted her own "escape" attempt last year, only to be captured later by Emirati forces on a yacht attempting to flee.The family is said to be worth over $4 billion and exercises huge influence in other countries where they maintain substantial assets and real estate, such as the UK. The protection orders are being considered by the court in response to Sheikh Mohammed's seeking a legal order for the summary return of their children to Dubai. The 70-year old sheikh was absent from the proceedings but is represented by his legal team.

Libya’s Grim Civil War Escalates - Barely eight years after Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi was toppled and the militias in Misrata put his corpse on display in a butcher's fridge, the country is in the throes of a third civil war. According to the United Nations, around 1,000 people have been killed and 5,000 injured in the fighting south of Tripoli. More than 100,000 residents have been forced to flee their homes. Libya now has two governments and has long since ceased to be a state. One in the east, in Tobruk, supports Haftar, a 75-year-old former colonel who once helped Gadhafi organize the coup that brought him to power. After falling out of favor with Gadhafi, Haftar lived in the United States for nearly two decades and is rumored to have occasionally worked for the CIA. After Gadhafi's fall, Haftar returned to Libya and since 2016 has given himself the title of field marshal.The rival government in the west, the Government of National Accord (GNA), is led by Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj in Tripoli. It's recognized by the United Nations and the European Union, but not by the elected parliament, which has fled to the east. The GNA is largely powerless, relying on the support of the militias, who are the de facto rulers of Tripoli.Amid all this chaos, thousands of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa are stranded here on their long trek to Europe. Many have been interned by the militias in brutal torture camps, kept in slave-like dependency and are in some cases conscripted into military service. More than 50 people died during an air raid on a refugee prison in Tripoli on July 3. It is the tragedy of a country that could be the richest on the continent, with the world's ninth largest oil deposits. But after Gadhafi bled the country dry for 42 years, he left behind a power vacuum that imploded after he was killed, and an ongoing struggle erupted among cities, tribes and their militias over power and access to wealth.

Air strike on Libya hospital kills five doctors - An air strike has killed five doctors in a hospital in the southern outskirts of Libya's capital Tripoli, an official from the UN-backed government says. A warplane belonging to Khalifa Hafta, the rogue general who commands the Libyan National Army, carried out the attack, the health ministry spokesman added. The LNA has not commented. Libya has been roiled in conflict since the fall of long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Fighting between the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and Mr Haftar's LNA, has claimed 1,100 lives since April, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The fighting has remained deadlocked on the outskirts of the capital, with both sides resorting to air strikes, news agency AFP reports. Saturday's bombing also wounded seven people, including some rescuers, Lamine al-Hashem, the spokesman from the health ministry, said. "It was a direct hit against the field hospital which was packed with medical teams," Mr Hashemi added. The attack was the third to target a hospital in the capital's south, AFP reports. African migrants who use Libya as a key crossing point to Europe have also been caught up in the fighting. The GNA blamed the LNA for last month's air strike on a detention centre that killed at least 50 migrants.

Mass protests erupt after Sudan’s military junta guns down school children - Tens of thousands of students and youth took to the streets this week after Sudan’s armed forces opened fire on a youth rally Monday over bread and fuel shortages in El-Obeid, the regional capital of North Kordofan. Six people were killed, including four school children, and more than 60 injured. The military junta has now closed down all the nation’s schools. Videos on social media show security forces in El-Obeid firing a truck-mounted machine gun against protesters from close range. The truck is marked with a skull and crossed swords insignia and a windscreen sticker reading, “Playing with the big guys is tough.” It has rocket-propelled grenades hanging on the side. According to the Sudanese Doctors Committee, some of the protesters were shot by snipers. Demonstrators accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group led by one of the leading members of Sudan’s military junta, Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo, also known as Hemeti, of the killings. The governor of Northern Kordofan ordered a statewide closure of schools and a 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew in four towns and cities in a bid to quell the unrest. But outrage provoked by the killings could not be contained. One of the main protest groups, the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), called for nationwide demonstrations “to denounce the El-Obeid massacre and demand the perpetrators be brought to justice.” Tens of thousands of students and youth responded in the capital Khartoum on Tuesday and in El-Obeid on Wednesday in a rising tide of opposition to the Transitional Military Council (TMC), which ousted long-term dictator President Omar al-Bashir in April to prevent the overthrow of the entire regime. Some protesters in Khartoum wore school uniforms and chanted, “Killing a student is killing a nation.” Security forces used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse the crowds. As the unrest continued, the nationwide shutdown of schools was ordered.

China-Russia air patrol shows Japan and South Korea in disarray - China and Russia conducted their first-ever joint air patrol last week by sending bombers along the South Korean coast, intruding into its air defense identification zone as well as that of Japan, with Seoul charging that a Russian warplane had violated Korean airspace – the first such incursion since the Korean War. Japan, too, sent its jets aloft to intercept the Russian aircraft.Russia’s defense ministry issued a statement denying any violation of airspace, saying the flights had taken place “over a pre-planned route.” China’s foreign ministry pointed out that the airspace in an air defense identification zone is “not territorial airspace and countries enjoy the freedom of overflight under international law.”China’s defense ministry spokesman, Wu Qian, explained that the purpose of the joint patrol “is aimed at deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership of China and Russia, and boosting the strategy coordination and joint combat ability of the two nations.” He said it did not target “any third nation.” Yet, the two countries chose to patrol the sensitive airspace along the Korean coast, above waters linking Korea and Japan. They must have known that there would be a reaction to such an exercise.The Russian intrusion into airspace claimed by both South Korea and Japan triggered off several hundred rounds of warning shots fired by Korean jets toward the Russian A-50 airborne warning and control plane.Instead of uniting Seoul and Tokyo against the intruder, it had the opposite effect, with Japan lodging protests with both Moscow and Seoul, with the former for the airspace violation and with the latter for having tried to drive the violating aircraft away. Caught in this awkward situation, a Pentagon spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Dave Eastburn, asked to comment, asserted: “The United States strongly supports our [South Korean] and Japanese allies and their responses to airspace incursions by Chinese and Russian aircraft.”

Trade War 2nd Front Opens Up - Japan Removes South Korea From Export "White List" - President Trump's 'good friend', Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has formalized Japan's decision to remove South Korea from its "white list" of 27 countries with preferential trade status, a move that further fuels bilateral tensions. The move follows a decision by Japan on July 4 to tighten controls on exports for three chemicals used in the production of semiconductor products.  As The Asia Nikkei Review reports, the breakdown in relations was sparked by last year's decisions by the South Korean Supreme Court to award reparations to the country's wartime laborers at Japanese companies during Japanese occupation.The court decisions challenged the understanding that all such claims were already settled "completely and finally" under a 1965 treaty that established diplomatic relations between the two countries. Tokyo is asking Seoul to abide by the 1965 agreement and has asked for third-party mediation, fearing that the court ruling would open the floodgates for other victims to seek compensation from these and other Japanese companies. Seoul has so far declined to submit to such mediation. The decision comes after Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and his South Korean counterpart Kang Kyung Wha met on the sidelines of annual ASEAN-related meetings in Bangkok, and clearly were unable to come to a compomise.

US, China tilting towards conflict on Taiwan - China will not hesitate to use force to take over Taiwan if the island formally declares its independence from the mainland, Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said at a news briefing in Beijing on July 24.“If there are people who dare to split Taiwan from the country, China’s military will be ready to go to war to firmly safeguard national sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity,” the defense official said.To be sure, it was hardly the first time that China has issued such an invasion threat. But Wu’s statement came at a delicate juncture, with Hongkongers demonstrating against what they see as China’s attempts to undermine their city’s special autonomy and what Beijing perceives as other rising threats to its economic and strategic interests. Beijing’s official policy for the reunification of the “motherland” – one country, two systems – is obviously not working in Hong Kong. Chinese state media, on July 10, went as far as to accuse the US of having a hidden hand in Hong Kong’s escalating protests. That came two days after the US State Department announced a US$2.2 billion arms sales to Taiwan, a massive deal that aims specifically at neutralizing China’s threat to “re-unite” Taiwan by 2020 and thus has the potential to bring the US and China into near-term open conflict over the island’s future.

China Manufacturing PMI Stuck In Contraction As Services Hit 2019 Lows   -  Despite record credit injections and endless easing, China's economic survey data goes from bad to worse.

• While China Manufacturing PMI managed a de minimus gain from 49.4 to 49.7, it remains in contractionary territory for the 7th month in the last 9.
• China Services PMI continued to slide, back to its lowest since 2018.

Confirming global weakness seen in Japanese and European PMIs. In a seemingly desperate reach, Bloomberg notes that the stronger result (49.4 to 49.7) signaled some optimism is emerging in the Chinese economy in spite of lingering uncertainty over trade talks and domestic demand.PMI data improves as “the government’s tax cuts have helped improve growth slightly,” Yao Shaohua, economist at ABCI Securities Co. in Hong Kong Under the hood things are less rosy with Manufacturing New Orders and Employment both contracting...

Chinese Duck Farmers Become Overnight Millionaires As Half Of China's Pigs Die -- The price of China's favorite food is about to hit all time highs. As a result of the decimation of Chinese pig herds, which have been crippled by the ongoing spread of so-called "pig ebola", i.e. African swine fever which has crippled domestic pork production, RaboBank expects China's pork prices to hit a record high by the fourth quarter of 2019 even as imports continue to surge. Last Tuesday China's customs data showed that pork imports in June surged from the previous year, as the world's top consumer of the meat stocked up on supplies after African swine fever swept across the country's pig herds. China brought in 160,467 tonnes of pork in June, up 62.8% from the same month last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This was down 14% from 187,459 tonnes imported in May. China's pork imports for the first six months of the year came in at 818,703 tonnes, up 26.3% from a year earlier according to Reuters. Meanwhile, pork prices rose by nearly 30% in June compared with a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the spread of African swine fever showing no sign of abating, causing domestic production to plunge.Retail pork prices have also increased in recent weeks but at a slower pace than whole sale prices, with prices up 34.6% from a year earlier at 27.29 yuan per kg as of July 10. And while China's agriculture ministry is investigating local veterinary authorities in 10 provinces as it tries to slow the ongoing spread of the deadly African swine fever virus, few analysts expect it to succeed, and instead see prices rising even higher: “China’s pork and hog prices are likely to break the previous record high in 2016 by the fourth quarter,” said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank. He also expects pork production to fall by 30% or about 16 million tonnes, leaving a gaping hole in the country’s protein supply. Analysts warn the disease could hit some farms more than once, and ratings agency Fitch forecasts pork output will stay below 2018 levels through 2021.Rabobank pointed out that Chinese data showed that sow, or mother pig, inventory had dropped 26.7% and the number of hogs had fallen 25.8% at the end of June compared with a year ago. But it believes that the herd losses in specific regions are much worse, down by 40 to 60 per cent since last August. For 2019, the bank expects the total herd loss to exceed 50 per cent.

Hong Kong Protests Turn Chaotic As Police Storm Subway Station, Fire Tear Gas Into Crowds -  Police in Hong Kong fired tear gas and pepper spray into a crowd of demonstrators who were conducting an illegal protest of attacks last weekend carried out by suspected triad members, which left 45 people injured at the Yuen Long MTR station.  #UPDATE Hong Kong police fire tear gas at protesters holding a banned rally in the town of #YuenLong against suspected triad gangs who beat up pro-democracy demonstrators near the Chinese border last weekend, tipping the finance hub further into chaos. https://t.co/YgSxKYJb2Y pic.twitter.com/m6CyG2JdAB — AFP news agency (@AFP) July 27, 2019   Protesters wearing all black streamed through Yuen Long, even though police refused to grant permission for the march, citing risks of confrontations between demonstrators and local residents. For the protesters, it was a show of defiance against both the police and the white-clad assailants who beat dozens of people July 21, including some demonstrators heading home after the latest mass protest in the Chinese territory's summer-long pro-democracy movement. -ABC News

Hong Kong reaches a protest point of no return -- Fresh unrest in Hong Kong’s western districts on Sunday follows clashes on Saturday (July 27) evening as police stormed a metro station in Yuen Long, a small northwestern town in the New Territories, using their batons on protesters and leaving the building’s tiled floors stained with blood, events that have raised fears of an unyielding pattern of violence. Twenty-three people were reportedly injured in clashes a day ago, with two in serious condition according to reports. Police had issued a rare denial of permission for that gathering to go ahead over fears of violent clashes and deemed the mass assembly as “unlawful.” Organizers estimated 288,000 people had attended. Superintendent of Police Public Relations Yolanda Yu explained in an evening press conference on Saturday that the elite riot police unit had entered the station after protestors began throwing fire extinguishers at officers from the West Rail line bridge. “We entered the station and got the scene under control,” she said. “Violent clashes broke out at various locations in Yuen Long as some protesters removed fences from the kerbside and used metal barriers to block roads. Some hurled bricks and hard objects at police officers and charged cordon lines,” a separate police statement read. Asia Times witnessed protesters engaging in those described actions.Ho-fung Hung, a political-economy professor at Johns Hopkins University, told Asia Times that the majority of protesters were peaceful and that he believed police escalated the situation by using “indiscriminate violence” that he claimed resembled the actions committed by triad-linked thugs in Yuen Long days earlier. “They are basically using maximum violence short of real bullets to intimidate protesters, chasing and attacking protesters, and even journalists, and social workers. This time they even chased the protesters, who were already leaving, into the MTR station to beat them up,” said the academic.

HKFP Lens: Frontline shots from Hong Kong Island’s night of mayhem as protesters flee tear gas, rubber bullets – Part 1  -- (photos) Chaos reigned in Sheung Wan on Sunday night as police shot multiple volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and sponge grenades at protesters. At least 16 people were injured and 49 were arrested during the bloody clashes. Click here for the full story, and click here for Part 2.

Explainer: The Yuen Long mob attacks and Hong Kong’s triads – why do some consider the New Territories ‘lawless’? On July 21, an armed mob indiscriminately attacked returning demonstrators, journalists and civilians at Yuen Long MTR station in one of the most violent episodes of Hong Kong’s anti-extradition bill protests. Hong Kong’s reputation as one of the safest cities in the world has repeatedly been cited as a reason for opposing the now-suspended bill. But on this occasion, the police stand accused of colluding with city’s dark underbelly. Victims decried the 39-minute delay before their arrival, the closure of police stations and the poor response of the 999 emergency line, as well as footage of a commander chatting with the men who appeared to be part of the mob. As of Friday, 12 men have been arrested – with some linked to triads – although certain perpetrators are rumoured to have left the city. Fingers have also been pointed at Yuen Long’s rural leaders, whom – prior to the attacks – reportedly warned villagers not to leave their homes. According to a Democratic Party councillor, they had been told by China Liaison Office official Li Jiyi at an earlier dinner ceremony not to let protesters enter Yuen Long. Then on the day, the mob gathered in a nearby village before storming Yuen Long’s MTR station. When riot police eventually arrived, the men retreated to Nam Pin Wai village as an hours-long standoff between them and officers ensued. As Hong Kong reels from what some activists now call a “terrorist incident”, the alleged connections between officials, organised crime and rural leaders have been placed under the spotlight – and not for the first time. If the person or group behind the violence remains a matter of speculation, does the unique political landscape of the rural New Territories explain how such an attack was able to take place?

 Crackdown Coming- China Gathers Forces On Hong Kong Border Amid Unrest - Massive anti-Beijing protests which have gripped Hong Kong over the past month, and have become increasingly violent as both an overwhelmed local police force and counter-protesters have hit back with force, are threatening to escalate on a larger geopolitical scale after the White House weighed in this week.With China fast losing patience, there are new reports of a significant build-up of Chinese security forces on Hong Kong's border, as Bloomberg reports:The White House is monitoring what a senior administration official called a congregation of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border. From nearly the start of the protests which began over a proposed extradition bill (which would see Hong Kong citizens under legal accusation potentially extradited to the mainland) interpreted as major Chinese overreach inside historically semi-autonomous Hong Kong, officials in Beijing have suggested an "external plot" afoot, more recently alleging the hidden hand of the United States. The latest charge made Tuesday by mainland government officials is that the still escalating Hong Kong unrest is the "creation of the US" — something which the Trump admin official speaking under anonymity to Bloomberg firmly denied. On Monday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a press interview that "protest is appropriate" and that "we hope the Chinese will do the right thing" regarding respecting Hong Kong's historic "one country, two systems" status. This was enough to elicit a quick response alleging US meddling out of Beijing on Tuesday.

Duterte To Put $400,000 Bounty On 'Head' Of Cop-Killing Insurgency Leader - Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has posted a bounty for the literal head of a communist insurgent leader behind the killings of four police officers in central Philippines, according to SCMP.  Members of the New People's Army (NPA) ambushed and shot the motorcycle officers while they were riding in Negros Oriental province on July 18, according to police.   "Still not satisfied with the blood of their prey, the terrorists also looted the dead of their firearms, valuables and personal belongings, and drove off with the victims’ motorcycle," reads a statement by the Philippine police.   In response, Duterte on Thursday offered three million pesos ($59,000 US) to whoever could bring him the "head" of NPA's leader - up from one million pesos earlier, for what he said was an Islamic State group-style killing.  "They were burned like (by) ISIS that’s why I got mad," said Duterte in a speech.  Duterte - who said he only wants the "head" and not the body of the leader - said he intended to increase the bouty to 20 million pesos ($392,000 US) The president said he only wants the “head” and not the body of the leader of the killers because a complete body would only be used by activists in a ceremony to generate sympathy. –SCMP    The attack was claimed by communist guerillas in the insurgency-hit province, according to the report, however they denied torturning the police officers as claimed earlier.

Dozens of mourners 'killed by Boko Haram' at a funeral in North Nigeria - BBC.com At least 65 people have lost their lives after suspected Boko Haram militants opened fire on a funeral in Nigeria's north-eastern state of Borno. Gunmen arrived on motorcycles and in vans at the village near the state capital, Maiduguri, on Saturday, eyewitnesses say. A number of mourners were reportedly killed straight away, while others died trying to chase off the attackers. There has been an increase in Islamist attacks across the region. Local government official Muhammed Bulama said he thought the latest attack was in revenge for the killing of 11 Boko Haram fighters by the villagers two weeks ago. Agence France Presse journalists at the scene said they saw burnt-out homes, and relatives collecting the bodies of those who were killed. Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari condemned the attack, and ordered the air force and army to hunt down those who carried it out, Reuters reports. 

Brazil prison riot leaves 52 dead, with 16 decapitated - At least 52 inmates have died — 16 of them decapitated — in a prison riot that broke out on in the northern Brazilian state of Para. State authorities said the prison riot began at about 7:00am in the city of Altamira and involved two prison gangs. Two guards were taken hostage as the groups battled one another, but they were later released. Prisoners belonging to the Comando Classe A gang set fire to a cell containing inmates who belonged to the Comando Vermelho, or Red Command gang, Para's State Government said in a statement. The Red Command gang hails from Rio de Janeiro, but has expanded deep into the north and north-east of Brazil as it seeks to diversify its income stream. The Comando Classe A gang is a relatively small group that is little known outside Para, but its high-profile attack against the powerful Red Command could give it a nationwide reputation. "It was a targeted act," state prison director Jarbas Vasconcelos said in the statement, adding there was no prior intelligence that suggested an attack would take place. " Brazil's justice ministry said in a statement it was working with Para state authorities to identify those behind the latest attack, adding it had opened up space in Brazil's federal prison system where those gang leaders would be sent.

Hit by Epic Construction Downturn, Mexico Faces Reality: New President Tries to Get Folks to Play by the Rules, and Everything Stalls - Construction activity in Mexico registered its biggest year-on-year fall in May since records began, in 2006, according to a monthly survey of construction companies carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). It was the fourth consecutive month of declining activity.   The total productive value of construction projects under development contracted 3.1% between April and May this year and 10.3% between May 2018 and May 2019. During the same 12-month period, the total hours worked in the sector fell by 5.2% and the total number of (official) workers employed fell by 4.9%, to the lowest level since records began. The construction sector survey provides monthly estimates of the total value of construction work done on new structures or improvements to existing structures for both public and private sectors. The data it uses includes the cost of labor and materials, architectural and engineering work, overhead, interest and taxes paid during construction, as well as contractors’ profits.   There are two main reasons for this drop-off:  One, many private sector investors are afraid to invest. Since Mexico’s new government came into power in December, there has been much greater enforcement of laws, rules and regulations concerning construction, which has made life more difficult for companies in the sector. The bombastic style and more leftist policies of the new president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO for short), have fueled fears among investors that property laws could become less business friendly. Those fears are also being stoked by many of AMLO’s staunchest opponents. “The first year of a new government is always complicated and investors are always wary,” says Luis, the owner of a family construction firm in Puebla. “But this time, it’s more accentuated.” Two, public sector projects have ground to a virtual standstill. Mexico saw a a 24% year-on-year drop in public sector projects in May, compared to a much milder 1.2% fall for private sector works. Construction of public sector buildings (e.g. schools, hospitals, public administration buildings, etc.) was down by 29.5% year-on-year in May while work on transportation and urban planning projects contracted by 62.8%.

Modern Monetary Theory Goes Global - Cristina Lindblad and I did a video webcast yesterday (July 25) with Modern Monetary Theory economist Randall Wray as part of the BW Talks series. Here’s a link. I thought I knew a lot about MMT, but Wray told us two things that came as a surprise. One is that tax-cut enthusiast Arthur Laffer, of all people, was instrumental in launching MMT by making a timely introduction.  The other surprise is how much traction MMT is getting outside the U.S. Wray said that Mosler has filled stadiums in Italy. I couldn’t confirm that in a quick perusal of the internet, but I did see that he’s drawn some pretty big indoor crowds. I also saw a recent tweet by MMTer Stephanie Kelton about gettingmobbed in Japan. It’s been big for a while in Australia.Wray was a great subject for me and Cristina to interview. (Cristina is editor of the Economics section of the magazine, and I write about economics for the magazine.) Wray is a professor of economics at Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y., and a senior scholar at the school’s Levy Economics Institute. He’s also a co-author, with Australians William Mitchell and Martin Watts, of the first MMT textbook, which was published earlier this year and is called, simply,Macroeconomics. I mentioned the textbook in an article with Bloomberg News colleagues Katia Dmitrieva and Matthew Boesler called “Warren Buffett Hates It. AOC Is for It. A Beginner’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory.”One of MMT’s core arguments is that a country that owes money in its own currency doesn’t have to worry about running up big debts because it can always print more money to cover them. The only constraint on government spending in MMT theory is the risk of overheating the economy and causing inflation. About 25 years ago, Wray was one of the original theorists of MMT, an outgrowth of post-Keynesian economics. He told me and Cristina that Mosler used to ask him periodically how many people in the world “got” MMT. One year, Wray’s answer was five. Then it got up to 10. The theory gained popularity after the financial crisis and then got another surge after Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign (which Kelton advised) and after freshman Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic Socialist from the Bronx, embraced it. Now, Wray says, there are probably tens of thousands of people who understand MMT well enough to hold their own in a debate with a mainstream economist such as Paul Krugman.

1,300 arrested in police crackdown on liberal opposition in Russia - In a massive police crackdown in Moscow on Saturday, over 1,300 people were arrested at a rally of the liberal opposition. The protesters demanded that 57 candidates, most of them associated with the right-wing opposition politician Alexey Navalny and his party, “Russia’s Future,” be allowed to participate in the Moscow City Duma elections on September 8. Along with the Moscow city duma elections, some 30 regional and municipal elections will be held on that day. The city authorities had declared the demonstration illegal and Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin had denounced them as a “security threat,” vowing that “order will be ensured.” The ensuing crack-down on the protest, which involved between three and five thousand people, in Moscow’s city center was unprecedented in its scope, even by the standards of the frequent police crackdowns on opposition protests in Russia. Video footage shows scenes that resemble a military occupation or a civil war. Several heavily armored vehicles were stationed on Tverskaya Street. Along with Moscow city police, the state mobilized the OMON, a paramilitary formation of the Interior Ministry that forms part of the Russian National Guard. There were at least as many policemen and OMON on the streets as there were protesters. At several points during the protests, which lasted almost all day, hundreds of OMON men formed chains, surrounding large groups of protesters, before storming into the crowd, beating people up and carrying them away to arrest them. Among the arrested were several of the candidates that had been barred from running in the election, among them Ilya Yashin, Liubov’ Sobol and Ivan Zhdanov. They are all involved with Alexey Navalny’s “Fond to fight Corruption.” According to unconfirmed reports, passersby were also arrested. The crackdown on Saturday followed over a week of demonstrations by the liberal opposition, which were attended by several thousand people, demanding that its candidates be placed on the ballots.

Olga Misik: How teenage girl reading constitution in front of Putin’s riot police became a symbol of Russian resistance - She is a lone teenage girl sat cross-legged and armed with nothing more than the Russian constitution. They are a line of Moscow’s notoriously brutal riot police, equipped with shields, batons and helmets.But the image of a young pro-democracy demonstrator single-handedly defying Vladimir Putin’s security forces looks set to become one of the most powerful symbols of resistance to the president’s autocracy. Olga Misik, 17, was photographed sitting in front of the officers reading out the country’s constitution – which affirms the right to peaceful gatherings – during protests on Saturday. Apparently unsure how to handle such a show of calm audacity, the police hold back. The image has gone viral across the world, being shared thousands of times, the peaceful defiance central to the photo faintly reminiscent of that present in the the iconic picture of Tiananmen Square’s Tank Man. It is now being used by Russian opposition to rally support in the face of continuing state oppression.“I just wanted to remind them [the police] that we are here with peaceful purposes and without weapons, but they are not,” the high school graduate told the Riga-based Meduza website. “It never even occurred to me that someone other than them would hear it … I sat on the ground and began to read out our constitutional rights, specifying that what is happening here [police arresting protestors] is illegal.”

Global Endgame Looms As Soaring Debt Smashes Into Shrinking Populations

• Global debt is currently at $246.5 trillion and primarily in the Wealthier, Consumer Nations of the world.
• The population of young in Consumer Nations has fallen 12% or over 100 million Since Peaking in 1975.
• Debt on a per capita basis gauged against the consumer nations young is going parabolic.

For nearly a half century wealthy nations young populations have been declining versus rising young among poor nations...offset by secularly declining interest rates and the addition of over $240 trillion in global debt to maintain unnaturally high rates of economic growth.  The consumer nations population of relatively wealthy young has been declining for nearly 4 and a half decades, falling over 100 million or 12% during that span.  The population of relatively poorer nations young has increased by nearly 190% or increased by 570 million.  On average, each wealthier nations young person represents $26.5k in per capita consumption versus each poor nations young represents $1.5k in per capita consumption.  Said otherwise, it takes 15 more poor nations inhabitants to replace the loss of every one wealthier nations inhabitant to simply maintain flat consumption, thus the impetus for interest rate cuts and massive increases in debt among the wealthy.  Obviously, consumption hasn't been flat but has grown tremendously, primarily thanks to interest rate cuts, cheap debt, and only in a very small part from growth in consumption among the poorer nations population gains. As I started in my last article, the world is characterized by stark inequalities among the global nations of "haves" and "have-nots". The World Bank is kind enough to categorize the world's nations into four buckets by the Atlas Gross National Income per capita (geographically detailed HERE and listed HERE). High income nations range from $84k to $12k per capita, Upper Middle income nations $12k-$4k per capita, Lower Middle income nations $4k to $1k, and Low income nations less than $1k per capita. To simplify what is taking place, I sweep the high and upper middle income nations 0-15yr/old populations together (blue line below), as these nations represent 90% of the global income, savings, and access to credit. They consume 90% of the global energy and purchase 90% of the global exports. They drive global economic activity. Likewise, I sweep the have-nots 0-15yr/old populations together (tan line, below).  To view the full picture, I include global debt (red line) and the Federal Funds rate (black dashed line).

Hungary Offering $35,000, Lifetime Tax Exemption For Having Lots Of Children - Faced with a declining birth rate and an unwilling to fill population shortfalls with immigrants like some of its European neighbors, Hungary has rolled out a seven-point "Family Protection Action Plan" which showers boatloads of cash, loan assistance and tax breaks to couples who agree to crank out lots of Hungarian children. For starters, the state is offering $35,000 to couples who get married and have at least three children. Specifically, women under 40 who are getting married for the first time will receive an interest-free, general-purpose loan of $35,000. Upon the birth of the couple's first and second children, loan payments will be suspended for three years each - with 1/3 of the principal paid off after the second child. After the third child is born, the debt will be wiped out. Couples with two or more children can also use their loans for the purchase of an existing property - but it gets better. "People living in villages should wait just a little bit longer," said Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in February. "Within a few weeks, we would like to announce a scheme specifically customised to their needs. This means that today young married couples agreeing to have two children are eligible for grants worth 22 million forints ($75,000 US) for starting their lives and creating their first homes, while families agreeing to have three children are eligible for grants worth 35 million forints ($120,000 US)," said Orbán in his February announcement. Hungary will also help out with mortgages - picking up the tab on roughly $13,500 US after the couple's third child, with an additional $3,500 US of relief for each further child. Moreover, women who have given birth to and raised four children will pay no income taxes for the rest of their lives, while grandparents who are still working are entitled to take leave to help take care of their new grandchildren. There's even a $9,000 subsidy for the purchase of a seven-passenger vehicle. "If you’ve ever tried to fit three children with car seats and everything else you need for children and probably the dog too in a car, you know how hard it is," said Hungary's minister of state for family, youth and international affairs, Katalin Novák. "Cars in Europe also tend to be smaller than American cars"

Gilets Jaunes gather for third “Assembly of Assemblies”  - Last month some 650 Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) gathered for a meeting in Montceau-les-Mines, in the heartland of France. Although the movement has struggled to unify and has fewer participants than before, the strength of its local mobilizations and its slow progression toward municipalism were on display.  In the streets of Montceau-les-Mines, dozens of cars with license plates from out of town were parked bumper to bumper and spilling onto the sidewalks:Gilets Jaunes from all over France had come to the department of Saône-et-Loire to participate in their third “Assembly of Assemblies” on June 29-30, after the first one in Commercy in January and the second one in Saint-Nazaire in April.  Although the police, too, made rounds in the neighborhood Saturday morning, they kept their distance from the Pouloux Sports Complex where the event was being held. The night before, the prefect himself had come down to inspect preparations and found nothing amiss. The 650 participants were delegates mandated by 250 roundabouts or assemblies to participate in the debates. Some delegates, including two from the hills of the Diois region in the Drôme, had started driving as early as 3 or 4 a.m. to get there on time. “We’re fighting for the climate and purchasing power, but then, as Gilets Jaunes, we’re burning a ton of gas!” one delegate, Françoise, joked. The size of the assembly was the same as it was in Saint-Nazaire two months earlier. This movement, which has been pronounced dead dozens of times, has not died. In the streets, one Saturday after another, in smaller numbers, or during local actions covered rarely or not at all, the Gilets Jaunes have been tending the fire they lit last November and continued to do so under the early summer sun at this national meeting. With a humble recognition: “We call for departmental or regional assemblies, because here, we still only represent a minority of the movement, and that’s too bad,” one of the participants said during the plenary session.

Rhine River At Dangerously Low Water Levels Could Cause Production Hell For German Firms - A series of heatwaves across Central Europe this summer has brought record-breaking temperatures to Germany that sparked dangerously low water levels on the Rhine river, one of the continents most important shipping routes, which could decrease manufacturing and disrupt supply chains that might tip Germany into recession. Water levels on the Rhine last summer made some parts of it unnavigable. This disrupted supply chains in Germany's industrial heartland that use the river for shipping. Reuters recently reported that the shortage of rainfall this summer and scorching hot temperatures across Germany and France had made some parts of the Rhine impassable for fully loaded cargo ships."Approximately 80% of all goods that are transported via domestic water transport go along the River Rhine. Thus, it is Germany's most important waterway," Robert Lehmann, an economist at Germany's influential Ifo Institute research center, told CNBC Tuesday."Coal, oil, and gas or chemical products are transported with a much higher intensity: 10% to 30%. These are the main goods at the beginning of important value-added chains, thus, low water levels at the River Rhine can immediately lead to restrictions in industrial production."Low water levels on the river could have severe economic consequences for Germany's economy that is already dealing with an industrial recession.New economic data on Thursday showed Germany's manufacturing sector plunged in July with factories producing goods at the slowest rate in seven years and export orders crashed to the lowest in more than a decade.

Entire German Curve Drops Below Zero For First Time Ever - While global equities are sharply lower today following the end of the US-China trade ceasefire, it's nothing compared to what is going on in the bond market, where one day after the 10Y US Treasury plunged a whopping 6% to 1.832% - the biggest one day drop since Brexit - to the lowest since the Trump election... ... the real show is in Germany, where not only did German 10Y Bunds tumble to the lowest on record, sliding to -0.503%, far below the ECB's -0.40% deposit rate, the highlight was the plunge in 30Y yield, which today dropped below 0%..... dragging the entire German yield curve in negative territory for the first time ever. As such, Germany joined Denmark and Switzerland in offering negative returns across all maturities, and assuring losses to all investors should notes be held to maturity, taking the total stock of investment-grade debt yielding less than 0% above $14 trillion globally. Enter "Japanification": as Bloomberg notes, "the move will add to fears that the region’s economic slowdown is being driven by more structural factors akin to Japan’s lost decade", which is ironic because not even Japan's 30Ys trade negative. Germany’s bond market is widely perceived as being one of the world’s safest, with investors lured in by the liquidity and credit quality offered. Funds still looking to extract a positive return from European sovereign assets have been forced further out the yield curve or into riskier debt markets such as Italy. And as of today, anyone investing in German paper is guaranteed to lose money if holding to maturity."It underlines that the hunt for yield, or rather hunt to avoid negative yields, is accelerating day by day,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of fixed-income research at Danske Bank A/S. “It just makes things more complicated."In addition to fears about a German recession sparked by the renewed Trump tariff threat, Germany’s bond market is also plagued by a problem of scarcity, with the government mandated by law to effectively maintain a budget surplus. The ECB holds nearly a third of the existing debt, leaving less to trade, which has helped to compress yields even further.

UBS To Start Charging Rich Clients With Negative 0.75% Interest Rate - For years, European banks were leery of passing on the ECB's negative -0.40% deposit rate to their clients for fears of deposit flight and other unintended consequences, in the process being forced to "eat" the difference and impacting their interest income.However, after five years of NIRP, and with the ECB set to unleash even more negative rates in the immediate future, one bank has finally taken a stand: according to the FT, UBS plans to charge a negative interest rate on wealthy clients, those  who deposit more than CHF 2 million with the largest Swiss bank. While several, mostly smaller, banks in Switzerland and the eurozone already pass on the cost of negative official rates to corporate depositors, most large players have refrained from doing so with individual clients. But with the ECB expected to adopt a “lower for longer” stance as soon as the next central bank meeting, starting in November, UBS Switzerland will charge -0.75% a year on individual cash balances above 2 million Swiss francs, the same rate as the SNB's rate.The move, as the FT notes, "underscores how banks in Europe and the US are scrambling to prepare for a protracted spell of lower rates that threatens their profitability, having previously wagered that central bankers would tighten monetary policy." Last month the Swiss National Bank said it would hold the negative rate it charges on commercial banks’ deposits at -0.75%, while the ECB deposit rate is -0.4%, but is widely expected to drop by another 10-20bps, which in turn will prompt even more negative rates in Switzerland. In a note to clients last month, UBS forecast that the SNB would lower its rate on deposits to -1% in September, approaching dangerously close to the infamous "reversal rate", below which accomodative monetary policy reverse and once again becomes contractionary for lending, i.e., the true lower bound of NIRP. "A year ago everyone thought interest rates would go up. Now it doesn’t look like that,"

Opinion: Central bankers now must cut interest rates to compensate for politicians’ mistakes -- By Raghuram G. Rajan — Central-bank independence is back in the news. In the United States, President Donald Trump has been berating the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates too high, and has reportedly explored the possibility of forcing out Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has fired the central-bank governor. The new governor is now pursuing sharp rate cuts. And these are hardly the only examples of populist governments setting their sights on central banks in recent months.In theory, central-bank independence means that monetary policy makers have the freedom to make unpopular but necessary decisions, particularly when it comes to combating inflation and financial excesses, because they don’t have to stand for election. When faced with such decisions, elected officials will always be tempted to adopt a softer response, regardless of the longer-term costs. To avoid this, they have handed over the task of intervening directly in monetary and financial matters to central bankers, who have the discretion to meet goals set by the political establishment however they choose.This arrangement gives investors more confidence in a country’s monetary and financial stability, and they will reward it (and its political establishment) by accepting lower interest rates for its debt. In theory, the country thus will live happily ever after, with low inflation and financial-sector stability.Having proved effective in many countries starting in the 1980s, central-bank independence became a mantra for policy makers in the 1990s. Central bankers were held in high esteem, and their utterances, though often elliptical or even incomprehensible, were treated with deep reverence. Fearing a recurrence of the high inflation of the early 1980s, politicians gave monetary policy makers wide leeway, and scarcely ever talked about their actions publicly.  But now, three developments seem to have shattered this entente in developed countries. The first development was the 2008 global financial crisis, which suggested that central banks had been asleep at the wheel. Although central bankers managed to create an even more powerful aura around themselves by marshaling a forceful response to the crisis, politicians have since come to resent sharing the stage with these unelected saviors.Second, since the crisis, central banks have repeatedly fallen short of their inflation targets. While this may suggest that they could have done more to boost growth, in reality they don’t have the means to pursue much additional monetary easing, even using unconventional tools. Any hint of further easing seems to encourage financial risk-taking more than real investment.Central bankers have thus become hostages of the aura they helped to conjure. When the public believes that monetary policy makers have superpowers, politicians will ask why those powers aren’t being used to fulfill their mandates.

Euro zone July factory activity contracts at fastest rate in six years - (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in the euro zone contracted at its steepest rate since late 2012 last month as demand sank, a survey showed, puncturing sentiment among factory managers.Forward-looking indicators in the survey suggest the sector won’t rebound any time soon and will likely embolden policymakers at the European Central Bank, who last week all but promised to ease policy further as the bloc’s growth outlook deteriorates. IHS Markit’s July final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 46.5, just above an earlier flash reading of 46.4 but below June’s 47.6 and chalking up its sixth straight month below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.July’s headline index was at its lowest since December 2012 and a measure of output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Monday and is seen as a good gauge of economic health, dropped to a more than six-year low of 46.9 from 48.5. “The euro zone PMI dashboard is a sea of red, with all lights warning on the deteriorating health of the region’s manufacturers,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.  A future output index, which measures optimism, plummeted to 52.6 from 56.6, its lowest reading since the end of 2012. New orders fell for a tenth month and factories reduced headcount for a third month as they completed backlogs of work at the sharpest rate in seven years.

Signs of Recession Are Hitting Europe—And Its New Central Bank President May Not Be Up for the Challenge - Marshall Auerback - We now know that there will be a changing of the guard at the European Central Bank (ECB) in October. The current head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, will succeed current ECB President Mario Draghi at that time. A known quantity among the political and investor class of Europe, Lagarde seems like a safe choice: she is a lawyer by training, not an economist. Hence, she is unlikely to usher in any dramatic changes, in contrast to current European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who significantly expanded the ECB’s remit in the aftermath of his pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency union (Draghi did this by underwriting the solvency of the Eurozone member states through substantially expanded sovereign bond-buying operations). Unfortunately, the Eurozone needs something more now, especially given the increasingly frail state of the European economies. The Eurozone still doesn’t have a treasury of its own, and there’s no comprehensively insured banking union. Those limitations are likely to become far more glaring in any larger kind of recession, especially if accompanied by a banking crisis. That is why the mooted candidacy of Jens Weidmann may have been the riskier bet for the top job at the ECB, but ultimately a choice with more political upside. An old-line German central banker might have been able to lay the groundwork for the requisite paradigmatic shift more successfully than a French lawyer, especially now that Germany itself is in the eye of the mounting economic storm.It’s summertime, but the living is certainly not easy in the Eurozone. The Mediterranean economies—notably Greece and Italy—have never really achieved sustainable growth over the last decade, and to the extent that either country ran deficits, or received bailout assistance, it was largely used to pay off debts to a range of bank creditors, rather than generate higher employment.However, the Eurozone’s weakness is now rapidly spreading to the North, notably in Germany, where the Ifo Institute’s manufacturing business climate index is “in freefall,” reports the Financial Times. The Ifo indicator—a good coincident gauge of overall economic health in the Eurozone’s main manufacturing hub—registered its worst reading in nine years, precipitously declining to minus 4.3 in July vs. a gain of plus 1.3 in June. Furthermore, Germany’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has plunged to the mid-40s over the last few months. Fifty is the demarcation separating expansion from contraction, suggesting an imminent recession.

EU Faces Two Ugly Realities- Johnson Will Deliver Brexit, Eurozone in Recession – Mish - Hello EU. Meet Boris Johnson and his negotiating team. While doing so, think about recession.   Eurointelligence has finally come around to my long-held four-point stance.

1. Boris Johnson is not bluffing.
2. He will deliver Brexit.
3. The EU would be wise to make a deal.
4. Germany and the Eurozone will be in a world of hurt if they don't.

From Eurointelligence:  Forget the cabinet reshuffle. The one single appointment we take very seriously is that of Dominic Cummings. The head of the Vote Leave campaign has been given the position of special adviser to the PM, with responsibility for Brexit and the civil service. He is essentially the CEO of Number 10, Downing Street. Cummings has been immortalised by the Cumberbatch movie The Uncivil War, in which he was portrayed as the mastermind behind the Vote Leave victory. We rate him as probably the smartest political operator in the UK right now, somebody who often works outside the policy consensus. He was the first campaign manager to use modern Big Data methods in political polling and campaigning. His elevation underlines our expectation that Boris Johnson will do his utmost to deliver Brexit by the end of October. And that he is getting ready for an election at some point in the autumn. We don’t know what Cummings is plotting, but we do know that this a guy who is gaming the scenarios in a way that Theresa May’s people didn’t. And we know that he will be operating from different data sets than those of most pollsters.  The strategy will be to take the negotiations with the EU to the brink, and then either agree a deal at the last minute or walk away. We have argued from the beginning that the UK parliament massively overestimates its own role in being able to micro-manage the stages of the Art. 50 process. Its ability to force an extension is far more limited than is widely acknowledged in the UK. A no-deal Brexit will be a consequence of the EU not agreeing to a deal, or of the UK parliament not voting in favour of a deal that Johnson presents. At no point will he advocate no deal himself. All he needs to do is not to seek an extension.  This is a dynamic process. MPs will think twice before openly rebelling against Johnson if only because the result of any rebellion is highly uncertain. We suspect that the much-predicted Tory rebellion of 10-20 MPs voting against the government in a no-confidence motion is going to wither - especially once Remain MPs start to think it through, which they have not done yet.

Brexit: aerospace preparedness -- While the Johnson administration is talking big about ramping up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, it seems that the aerospace industry has been quietly taking its own measures to reduce the impact of a disorderly exit.The problem for the industry is set out graphically in the European Commission's Notice to Stakeholders originally published on 13 April 2018 and replaced on 18 January 2019, covering the EU rules in the field of civil aviation safety.  As the Boeing 737 MAX affair graphically illustrates, official safety certification is the lifeblood of the industry: without the necessary permissions, there simply is no industry. And, as has recently emerged from Boeing, its relationship with the regulators has been a dominant issue in the economics of developing and marketing of its products in a highly competitive environment. How close that relationship was is set out in a recent article in the New York Times, which suggests that the relationship was actually too close, and too much work was delegated to the manufacturer in what looks suspiciously like regulatory capture. Another aspect of the 737 Max affair is that, despite two fatal accidents, it was not the US regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which acted to ground the aircraft, but non-US agencies, including the EU's own regulator, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). On 12 March of this year, it acted unilaterally to suspend all flight operations of all Boeing Model 737-8 MAX and 737-9 MAX aeroplanes in Europe. In so doing, EASA established its position as a regulatory superpower in the aviation sector. The previous day, the FAA had publicly affirmed the airplane's airworthiness but EASA forced its hand.  A side-effect of Brexit, though, will be to sever the direct link between UK aerospace manufacturers and the European regulator which, currently works independently and through the UK's Civil Aviation Agency to certify the safety of UK-manufactured products.

Boris Johnson plans to give the EU the cold shoulder by refusing to visit Brussels or any European leaders as Michael Gove plots daily ’emergency’ meetings over No Deal Brexit - Boris Johnson is set to give European leaders the cold shoulder as he dramatically ramps up preparations for a No Deal Brexit. Downing Street last night said the Prime Minister had told Michael Gove to lead daily meetings of the Government’s emergency committee ‘Cobra’ in order to ensure Britain is ready for a No Deal departure on October 31. The Cobra emergency room is normally reserved for responding to crises such as terrorist attacks and natural disasters. A senior government source said Mr Johnson had no plans to visit European capitals such as Brussels, Paris and Berlin in the hope of reopening talks. Boris Johnson, pictured with Will Walden working on his speech in his temporary office inside Admiralty House, London, is set to give European leaders the cold shoulder.   One insider said it was possible there would be no significant Brexit negotiations until a Brussels summit starting on October 17, just a fortnight before the UK is due to leave the EU.  The developments came as:

• The CBI prepared to warn that the EU ‘lags behind the UK in seeking to prevent the worst effects of a No Deal scenario’ and urge both sides to step up plans to avoid the economic fallout;
• Government sources ruled out an election before the end of October, despite four polls showing Mr Johnson’s arrival had given the Tories a boost;
• Mr Johnson prepared to travel to Scotland today for talks with Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who are both opposed to No Deal;
• He established an inner ‘War Cabinet’ of just six ministers to co-ordinate Brexit strategy;
• Ministers and senior officials in Brexit-related departments were asked to cancel their holidays;
• The Treasury was gearing up for a possible emergency Budget in the first week of October;
• Ministers prepared to sign off a major public information campaign including TV adverts and leaflets to 27million homes.

Boris Johnson Throws Down The Gauntlet- No Backstop, Not Even Temporary – Mish -- Boris Johnson laid down the ground rules for discussion with the EU. The EU says it won't accept them.  On Thursday Boris Johnson threw down the gauntlet with a call for the total abolition of the backstop. He also said the Government was “turbocharging” preparations for a no-deal break on Oct 31 if the EU refused to engage. The Telegraph asks Will the EU blink first as pressure builds towards 'no deal'? - At a stroke, Mr Johnson appeared to sweep away the camp, nominally led by the Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox, that still believed that with a tweak - perhaps a time-limit or a unilateral exit-mechanism - the backstop could be rendered acceptable. Not only did he announce the Irish backstop must be abolished, but he went further, turning the tables to set conditions for any future talks with the European Union. EU diplomats and officials in Brussels have been clear that this will not happen, even if that puts the UK and EU on a collision course towards ‘no deal’ over the apparently intractable problem of the Irish border. It is a wearingly familiar argument. Mr Johnson contends that the entire UK should be able to leave the EU customs union and single market while preserving a status quo border in Ireland. The question now, is who will blink first as pressure builds towards an impending ‘no deal’ in the autumn? Diplomats and officials were clear on Thursday that Mr Johnson’s statement, taken together with his decision to purge the Cabinet of all forces of compromise, could only be explained by a desire to create the conditions for an election. The only question in European minds is whether that election comes as a result of Parliament blocking ‘no deal’ - and Mr Johnson being forced to request an extension to Article 50 - or after a ‘no deal’ has already happened.

BoJo adviser lays down strict ‘no leaks’ policy — but the warning is instantly leaked to media Boris Johnson’s top adviser Dominic Cummings has warned ministerial aides that they will be fired if any cabinet business is leaked to the press — but rather ironically, the warning itself was immediately leaked to the Telegraph.Dominic Cummings told aides that he had a “one strike policy” on government leaks and “if you leak, you are gone,”according to one insider who relayed the juicy details of the meeting to the newspaper.But the PM’s new adviser reportedly went even further, threatening that if any of the advisers tried to take him to an employment tribunal, “you will be dead to me.” Perhaps aware of the irony of the latest leaks, Cummings did not return a request for comment to the Telegraph. A Downing Street source astutely commented, however, that it “sounds like someone is breaking the one strike policy.”“There has been a very clear message to special advisers that our focus is about delivering not about swanning around,” the person told the newspaper.Cummings is a hardline Brexiteer and one of the masterminds of the 2016 Vote Leave campaign, who supports Johnson’s push for Britain to exit the European Union in October, even in a ‘no deal’ situation.Cummings also reportedly told aides to prepare an emergency budget for the week following the Conservative Party conference in October ahead of the UK’s departure from the EU set for October 31. One source told the paper that the annual Tory gathering will be like a “no deal rally.” Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May was plagued by leaks from her government. In May, former Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson was fired after reportedly leaking details of Chinese tech firm Huawei’s involvement with the development of Britain’s 5G network.

Brexit: Can Anyone Take the Wheel From Johnson? --  Yves Smith - New Prime Minister Boris Johnson is making quite a show of his determination to deliver Brexit on October 31. He’s refusing to visit EU heads of state because they won’t renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement….when the extension the EU granted barred using the extra time to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. Johnson’s move is surprising because looking like he was Doing Something in Europe, even though all the principals knew it was destined to go nowhere, could keep Parliament at bay, hopefully until the October EU Council meeting.But Johnson has a very large ego and likes a gamble. He apparently didn’t want to risk looking like he’d been humiliated. Moreover, he genuinely seems to believe that the EU will fold,¹ and if it doesn’t, the UK can muddle through a no deal Brexit.Instead of getting favorable PR by putting himself in the headlines with European leaders and spinning the Government-friendly media hard, Johnson will gin up his desired spin in a more direct manner: the biggest media blitz since World War II. Glorious Brexit all the time!Johnson has probably figured out that it will be very hard for Parliament to wrest control from him. It’s already too late, given the mechanics of calling a new election, to have a General Election before Brexit day (hat tip Ataraxite):The failure of Labour to demand that Parliament cut its summer holiday will go down as a great political blunder.Richard North argues in today’s post that unless Johnson changes his mind, a crash-out is baked in. The spectacle of the pound falling almost 3% today on his bluster won’t make a difference. Sterling is at January 2017 levels against the dollar. This isn’t a sterling crisis, and it’s not clear how much financial markets distress it would take to move “fuck business” Johnson. And he and his Team Leave stalwarts seem remarkably unconcerned about wee problems like not being even close to where they need to be to re-do UK legislation to untangle it from decades of integration with EU law.It is hard to see how Parliament could stop Johnson short of a general election. If Parliament does not curtail its three week caucus break, there are perilous few working days before October 31. Can the Government keep Parliament from passing legislation, since MPs might succeed in attaching an amendment which could tie Johnson’s hands? For instance, simply ordering him to obtain an extension might not accomplish much. While the EU has said it won’t be the cause of the UK leaving the EU, meaning it almost certainly would grant an extension request, one that didn’t give any reason to expect a different outcome would likely be met by the EU granting only a short one, say to the year end at the outside.

El-Erian- Game Theory Backs Boris Johnson's Hard Line -- In his maiden speech as prime minister on Wednesday, Boris Johnson repeated that the U.K. will “come out of the European Union on October 31st, no ifs or buts.”  Some may view this position as irresponsible -- either for prematurely tying the country’s hands in what are likely to be tricky negotiations with the EU or for forcing Johnson to break a very public and oft-repeated promise less than 100 days after assuming office. Yet, in the game theory framework I set out last December to explain why the approach of his predecessor Theresa May risked getting stuck in the muddle-middle, Johnson’s approach may offer both the EU and the U.K. a way out of an impasse that is harming both sides. Unable to unite her Conservative Party, let alone secure a majority in Parliament, May ended up not having the political clout to shift negotiations with the EU out of a “no-war, no-peace” battle of attrition. As such, it was virtually inevitable that that the U.K. would end up forced to negotiate a series of deadline extensions with its European partners. The EU, for its part, was unable to impose an orderly Brexit on the U.K., let alone a return to the status quo ante (“remain”). Neither was it willing to force a hard Brexit.Some viewed this “slow Brexit” process as buying time for both sides and, therefore, maintaining the possibility of a better outcome down the road. But, as I argued, it came with notable and mounting costs for both sides. It undermined their ability to address structural impediments to high and more inclusive growth -- not just in the U.K., where politics became hostage to a single issue, but also in Europe where the economy has been slowing significantly. It confronted companies with considerable uncertainty regarding the environment in which they would operate, paralyzing investment decisions. And it fed divisive forces in a climate of heightened sensitivity to cultural, identity and migration issues. By having run on a less ambiguous Brexit platform, and by having been elected leader of his party by an overwhelming majority, Johnson has put down a clear come-what-may marker for the EU. If he can also convey a sense of parliamentary unity behind his position, he should be able to force the EU into compromise -- that is, the EU agreeing to a multi-stage process that combines a formal Brexit on Oct. 31 with various transitional agreements to minimize the risks of a disorderly exit process.

Sterling Headed For Worst Losing Streak In 3 Years As 'No Deal' Slump Continues - The 'great British peso' has had a rough week, and it's only Tuesday. Adding to Monday's sharp selloff, sparked by fears that Boris Johnson is planning to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, the pound tumbled to fresh two-year lows on Tuesday, bringing the currency's total drop over the past four trading days to 2.5%, and 4% since the end of June. The market's anxieties about a no-deal Brexit are probably here to stay (at least until Oct. 31), with neither the EU nor Johnson willing to compromise on the hated "Irish Backstop". Monday was a "huge day" of selling for GBPUSD, according to Robert Turner, a quant trader at RBC in London, per the FT. Turner said flows out of sterling were the highest since Dec. 11 last year, which coincided with "the height of the concern over an imminent no-deal exit."If the currency doesn't see a sharp rebound in the near future, it will be on track for its worst run of losses in nearly three years over the past four trading sessions.Still, some analysts insisted that they don't see a no-deal Brexit as their 'base case', though they believe the weakness in the pound will get worse before it gets better, according to Bloomberg.  Karen Ward, market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, added: "Whilst 'no deal' is still not our expected outcome, the newsflow - politically and economically - is likely to get worse before it gets better, so sterling may have further to fall."Johnson will travel to Wales on Tuesday where he will meet with farmers and try to quiet their fears about a 'no deal' Brexit, which some have warned could lead to civil unrest. Johnson was booed in Scotland on Monday, and will visit Northern Ireland later this week. Johnson's no-deal planning minister, Michael Gove, will chair on Tuesday the first daily ministerial meeting to perepare for a disorderly Brexit on Oct. 31.

Deal Or No-Deal, Brexit Dooms The Euro - Deal or No-Deal, when it comes to Brexit, the euro is toast. Markets, however, believe the fantasy of its survival. As we approach the end of July the euro clings to support at $1.11, mere pips away from a technical breakdown. That breakdown will trigger a wave of asset liquidation and another round of negative headlines emanating from troubled German banks. With 10 Downing St. now saying No-Deal is acceptable, the hard line negotiating tactics of the European Union have hit a rocky shore. Because it looks like Boris Johnson is ready to give as good as he gets. I’ve been saying this for a long time. The EU is not a tough nut to crack. They have no leverage in these Brexit negotiations. What they had was a stacked deck of British officials negotiating with Brussels on Brussels’ terms. It’s not a negotiation if both sides agree on terms. It’s a surrender. The only negotiation that went on during May’s administration was with the British people on accepting the horrific treaty written by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s staff and rubber-stamped by May. Today Britain looks different, at least on the surface. The market is punishing them for entertaining No-Deal. The pound is falling out of bed today below $1.24 because Johnson looks serious about re-opening negotiations or opting for No-Deal. But here’s the thing. The eurozone is facing a recession. I‘ve talked about Germany’s freefalling economy before. It’s not getting any better. And it won’t if a no-deal Brexit occurs. So the forex markets are offside today. Way offside. Johnson came out and bypassed the Withdrawal Treaty completely saying let’s just move to Stage 2 of Brexit, the free-trade agreement. You never would have heard that under Theresa May. That’s why the pound is getting crushed today. At some point, however, that move will get overdone. The EUR/GBP pair is way overbought and was looking toppy before Monday’s massacre in the pound.

Financial Times Goes Wobbly on Brexit No Deal Impact -  Yves Smith - The Financial Times has done a lot of important reporting on Brexit, such as being early to warn of the utter lack of customs IT systems preparedness (Customs was almost certain to be getting an inadequate upgrade planned before Brexit in place late) and on the number of agreements the UK would need to renegotiate. But it would also run the occasional too-obviously-planted story, such as ones that took the City’s demands way too seriously.  Today the Financial Times published a supposedly important story (a “Big Read”) on the impact of a Brexit crashout that was stunningly uninformative.  It may be that the authors were trying to say something new and the piece didn’t come together well by deadline. But it gives the impression that the analysis, such as it is, was poorly framed so as to make the impact seem less bad and to give near-equal play to harm suffered by the EU.  Having said that, it does have an important chart near the top:But then it breathlessly promises to tell readers where “the biggest impacts” from a crash out might be, and comes up with an apples and stinky fruit set of categories:  Two, financial services and transport, are industry sectors, so for instance, transport includes airlines, Eurostar, and truckers. Fisheries is just one industry. The impact of data flows and customs cuts across many industries, and this short article does not do a great job of parsing that out. By contrast, Richard North has done many deep dives on how the imposition of a hard border between the EU and UK will affect documentation requirements, compliance, and other controls. For instance, North anticipates that a hard Brexit would wipe out the UK live animal shipment business. Herds would be slaughtered because animals once destined for export could not be sold due to the double whammy of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, meaning no longer being in compliance with EU regs by virtue of being outside the EU (and not having replacement mechanisms in place). On top of that, North anticipates that these farmers won’t even be able to sell in the UK after they’ve thinned their herds. The UK will almost certainly eliminate tariffs on food imports, which would make these farmers uncompetitive. It looks like the list was constructed to create the impression that the two sides would suffer similar levels of damage, while conceding the UK will take the worse hit. But come on. The EU is not going to have to worry about food shortages. The EU is not going to have to worry about manufacturers that are party of global supply chains see their non-UK-end-market business stripped from them over time. And US and EU firms will try to take advantage of the hit to the City. Even if UK firms hold their own, the cost will still be loss of UK-based activity.

 EU must give way over backstop, says Johnson after rebuff by Varadkar - Boris Johnson has said it is up to the EU to compromise to avoid a no-deal Brexit, after his demands for the backstop to be scrapped were met with a flat refusal from the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. In comments that showed he is preparing to blame the EU if the UK ends up leaving without a deal, Johnson said he was not aiming for a no-deal Brexit but the situation was “very much up to our friends and partners across the Channel”. “They know that three times the House of Commons has thrown out that backstop, there’s no way that we can get it through, we have to have that backstop out of the deal, we cannot go on with the withdrawal agreement as it currently is,” he said. “If they understand that then I think we are going to be at the races. If they can’t compromise, if they really can’t do it, then clearly we have to get ready for a no-deal exit.” He said it was “up to the EU, this is their call if they want us to do this” but “unless we are determined to do it they won’t take us seriously in the course of the negotiations”. Earlier, Johnson clashed with Varadkar in their first phone call since he entered Downing Street in which the taoiseach said the EU was united in the view that it cannot be scrapped. Johnson finally spoke to Varadkar almost a week after becoming prime minister, telling him the UK would never put physical checks or infrastructure at the border with Northern Ireland after Brexit but demanding the backstop be scrapped. The prime minister will travel to Northern Ireland on Wednesday with the overt aim of boosting progressing in the Stormont talks, meeting leaders from five of Northern Ireland’s political parties. His pre-briefed remarks made no reference to the border. A spokesman for Varadkar said: “The taoiseach emphasised to the prime minister that the backstop was necessary as a consequence of decisions taken in the UK and by the UK government. “Noting that the Brexit negotiations take place between the UK and the EU, the taoiseach explained that the EU was united in its view that the withdrawal agreement could not be reopened.

A casualty in the education marketplace - The biggest for-profit college in England has gone into administration. GSM London, previously known as Greenwich School of Management, released the following statement on its website on Tuesday:GSM has had capital injections totalling some £22m since the end of 2016 but, despite that, due to highly challenging market conditions, the college has not been able to recruit and retain sufficient numbers of students to generate enough revenue to be sustainable.Within this context, in spring 2019 the GSM Board took the decision to seek a new owner to ensure the college’s longer-term future through an intensive sales process. Unfortunately, a sale of GSM was not possible to achieve and, given the Board’s concerns over the future viability of the college, it became necessary to seek the protection afforded by a formal insolvency procedure.The news comes at a time of increased focus on the pressures facing the UK’s higher education sector, which has borrowed heavily to fund ambitious building projects and attract new students over recent years.It is also a striking example of failure in the country’s nascent market for private and for-profit higher education. The amount students at alternative and for-profit institutions were eligible to receive in government loans was increased to £6,000 a year in 2011, opening up an avenue for more funding to the sector. John Morgan at the Times Higher Education has more details here. He points out that GSM received £152m of public money in the six years to 2017-2018. It had 4,587 students with government loans as of last year.