As Fed Pumps $3 Trillion into Repo Market, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Practice Borrowing from the Fed’s Discount Window - Pam Martens -Last week, Jim Grant, the Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, was interviewed by CNBC’s Rick Santelli. Grant said that since September 17, the Fed has pumped “upwards of $3 trillion” in repo loans to Wall Street. Santelli asked if the Fed had effectively nationalized the repo market. Grant said “there is no more price discovery and we are dealing with administered rates.”For the first time since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars each week to trading houses on Wall Street in order to provide liquidity to the repo (repurchase agreement) market where financial institutions make collateralized, overnight loans to each other. Liquidity had dried up in this market to the point that on September 17 overnight lending rates spiked from the typical 2 percent to 10 percent. The Fed then turned on its money spigot and brought the rate back down. But even after the rate went back down, the New York Fed has continued making these massive loans, raising fears on Wall Street about what is really going on behind the scenes.Thus far, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has tried to peddle the narrative that the Fed is just making “technical” adjustments through its open market operations rather than launching another massive bailout program to Wall Street. Congress has failed to conduct one hearing on the serious matter, even as the program has grown. Just last Thursday the Fed announced that in addition to its daily offering of $120 billion in overnight loans and twice-weekly offering of $35 billion in 14-day loans, it will be adding three more term loans over the next month, totaling $55 billion in 28-day and 42-day term loans. There is some evidence residing quietly on the Federal Reserve’s web site that it has been planning for the next Wall Street crisis since at least August 11, 2011. That’s when Morgan Stanley Bank NA shows up as a borrower at the Discount Window of the New York Fed, receiving a $1 million overnight loan at the rate of 0.75 percent against pledged collateral of $13.6 billion. These practice runs by Morgan Stanley at the New York Fed’s Discount Window have continued since that time. The Fed makes its Discount Window disclosures on a two-year lag time. According to its most recent data for the third quarter of 2017, Morgan Stanley Bank NA received a $500,000 overnight loan from the Discount Window on September 13, 2017 at an interest rate of 1.75 percent against pledged collateral of $10.7 billion.
If the Fed Is Bailing Out the Repo Market, Can Commercial Paper Be Far Behind? - Pam Martens - According to the most recent statistical release from the Federal Reserve, the average annual interest rate on 90-day AA-rated financial commercial paper has risen from 2.18 percent in 2018 to 2.27 percent through November 15 of this year. The rise in the average annual interest rate on 90-day commercial paper contrasts with the fact that since May of this year, the 90-day (3-month) Treasury bill’s yield has moved sharply lower, from 2.4 percent to yesterday’s closing yield of 1.56 percent – a decline of 35 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has effectively become the repo market – pumping out upwards of $3 trillion to that market since September 17. Can we expect the Fed to turn on the money spigot to the commercial paper market next? We raise this scenario because that’s exactly what the Fed did to the tune of almost $1 trillion from the fall of 2008 to February 1, 2010 during the financial crisis.The vast majority of the $29 trillion in programs to bail out Wall Street during the financial crisis were operated out of the New York Fed – just one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, but the only one with its own trading floor and the only one owned by the largest Wall Street banks. Today, it’s also the New York Fed that is pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars each week to unnamed trading houses on Wall Street for a repo loan crisis that has yet to be explained or defined in any credible terms. Last week CNBC’s Rick Santelli asked Jim Grant, Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, if the Fed had effectively nationalized the repo market. (Nationalization means a government takeover.) Since the upwards of $3 trillion in repo loans since September 17 has come out of the New York Fed, and it is owned by Wall Street banks, perhaps the question should be if Wall Street, via the New York Fed, hasprivatized the repo loan market. A similar question could be asked of the commercial paper market during the financial crisis. Was that privatized by Wall Street, via the New York Fed which has somehow gained the power to create trillions of dollars by pushing an electronic button. It’s now been 63 days since the New York Fed opened its repo money spigot again for the first time since the financial crisis. In those 63 days not one Congressional hearing has been called to drill down to what the crisis is and if it’s spreading. The American people deserve far better than this from their elected representatives.
The Federal Reserve Is Directly Monetizing US Debt - Chris Martenson - The Federal Reserve is now directly monetizing US federal debt. Sure, it’s not admitting to this. And it’s using several technical jinks and jives to offer a pretense that things are otherwise. But it’s not terribly difficult to predict what’s going to happen next: the Federal Reserve will drop the secrecy and start buying US debt openly. At a time, mind you, when US fiscal deficits are exploding and foreign buyers are heading for the exits. The Federal Reserve, under no conditions, buys Treasury paper directly. The Federal Reserve’s own website still maintains that this is the case: (Source) There are two important claims plus one assertion I’ve highlighted in there, each in a different color:
- Yellow: Treasury securities may “only be bought and sold in the open market.”
- Blue: doing otherwise might compromise the independence of the Fed.
- Purple: the Fed mostly buys “old” securities.
FOMC Minutes: "Most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 29-30, 2019. A few excerpts: With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated to support the outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective and likely would remain so as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a material reassessment of the economic outlook. However, participants noted that policy was not on a preset course and that they would be monitoring the effects of the Committee's recent policy actions, as well as other information bearing on the economic outlook, in assessing the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate. A couple of participants expressed the view that the Committee should reinforce its postmeeting statement with additional communications indicating that another reduction in the federal funds rate was unlikely in the near term unless incoming information was consistent with a significant slowdown in the pace of economic activity..
The Fed Slaps Down Negative Interest Rates - Wolf Richter - The minutes for the FOMC meeting on October 29-30, released today, shed some light on the laundry list of discussions arising out of the Fed’s current review of monetary policy strategy, where it tries to figure out how to line up the tools to be used during the next crisis, and which tools to line up.All kinds of tools are being kicked around in addition to the tools used during the last crisis – these potential new tools ranged from “rate caps” on long-term Treasury securities to various repo facilities and negative interest rates. But one potential tool was rejected by “all participants”: negative interest rates.And the Fed had a lot to say about negative interest rates and their drawbacks for the US. This is the first time that a detailed discussion of negative interest rates – with pros and cons – were referenced in the minutes – showing how controversial that topic has become among central banks globally. You can essentially see the Fed’s distaste for them in the US. In the quote below from the minutes, the paragraph divisions and bullet points are mine to make the pathologically long paragraphs of the minutes, which are purposefully designed to not be read by humans, more readable for humans: The briefing also discussed negative interest rates, a policy option implemented by several foreign central banks. The staff noted that although the evidence so far suggested that this tool had provided accommodation in jurisdictions where it had been employed, there were also indications of possible adverse side effects. Moreover, differences between the U.S. financial system and the financial systems of those jurisdictions suggested that the foreign experience may not provide a useful guide in assessing whether negative rates would be effective in the United States.All participants judged that negative interest rates currently did not appear to be an attractive monetary policy tool in the United States. Participants noted that negative interest rates would entail risks of introducing significant complexity or distortions to the financial system. In particular, some participants cautioned that the financial system in the United States is considerably different from those in countries that implemented negative interest rate policies, and that negative rates could have more significant adverse effects on market functioning and financial stability here than abroad. And then of course there was the backdoor – starts with “notwithstanding” – that any noteworthy central bank always leaves open about anything: Notwithstanding these considerations, participants did not rule out the possibility that circumstances could arise in which it might be appropriate to reassess the potential role of negative interest rates as a policy tool.\
Trump’s Fed Pick Judy Shelton Cast Doubt on Central Bank Independence - Judy Shelton, one of President Donald Trump’s most recent picks for the Federal Reserve board, challenged an article of faith regarding the U.S. central bank in private comments to a bank executive last month: that it should operate free of political influence. Shelton shared her views on monetary policy and the Fed with Beat Siegenthaler, global macro adviser for UBS Group AG, after speaking at an event on Oct. 18 in Washington on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund annual meetings. “I don’t see any reference to independence in the legislation that has defined the role of the Federal Reserve for the United States,” Shelton told Siegenthaler, according to a transcript of the interview. Shelton confirmed she had spoken with Siegenthaler and a UBS spokesman declined to comment. The transcript was shared with the bank’s institutional clients, according to a person familiar with the matter. If people were to read the law, “they would see that it demands that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve work hand-in-hand with Congress and the president to meet certain strategic economic goals for the U.S.,” Shelton added. It is unusual for someone the president intends to nominate for the Fed board to speak publicly before the Senate considers her for the post, and even rarer for a Fed nominee to question the central bank’s independence. The remarks may complicate Shelton’s nomination, should Trump proceed to send it to the Senate. The White House has yet to officially nominate Shelton or another person Trump has said he intends to put on the Fed board, the St. Louis Fed’s director of research, Christopher Waller. Some Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, which would consider Shelton’s nomination, have expressed concerns about her to the White House, citing her unconventional views on monetary policy, according to people familiar with the matter. Shelton and Waller’s paperwork was expected to be sent to the Senate in September, but now may be delayed until next year as the White House waits for the candidates to complete ethics requirements, the people said.
Japan Dumps Most Treasuries In History As Israel's 2019 Buying Spree Continues - After plunging in August (US foreign net transactions saw a $41 billion outflow - the biggest monthly outflow since Dec 2018), September data showed a notable $49.47 billion rebound in flows... Only Treasuries saw net selling:
- Foreign net selling of Treasuries at $34.3b
- Foreign net buying of equities at $8.8b
- Foreign net buying of corporate debt at $14.9b
- Foreign net buying of agency debt at $26b
Rather notably Japan, after buying the most Treasuries since 2013 in August, dumped $28.9 billion in September - its biggest monthly cut in Treasury reserves ever...China dumped Treasuries for the sixth month in the last seven to its lowest level of holdings since May 2017... On the buy-side, little old Luxembourg has seen the biggest 2-month buying of Treasuries since August 2011 to a new record high... And finally, we note that Israel continues to be an active buyer of US bonds (buying for the fifth of the last six months to a new record high)... ...quid pro quo?
Vladimir Putin Sums Up The New World Order In 5 Words - Russian President Vladimir Putin succinctly summarized the shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics. First he explained the status quo... "The Dollar enjoyed great trust around the world. But, for some reason, it is now being used as a political weapon to impose restrictions." Then Putin explained the consequences... "Many countries are now turning away from the Dollar as a Reserve Currency." And ultimately what happens... "US Dollar will collapse soon." And just like that, it was gone. Remember "nothing lasts forever"...
Janet Yellen says ‘there is good reason to worry’ about the US economy sliding into recession - Pronounced wealth inequality that has built up for decades poses a major threat to a U.S. economy that is in otherwise “excellent” shape, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Thursday. The central bank leader from 2014 to 2018 also said the U.S.-China tariff war is having a detrimental impact both on businesses and consumers through higher prices and a general air of uncertainty. While she doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, she also noted that the risks are piling up. “I would bet that there would not be a recession in the coming year. But I would have to say that the odds of a recession are higher than normal and at a level that frankly I am not comfortable with,” Yellen said at the World Business Forum. With three rate cuts this year, there remains “not as much scope as I would like to see for the Fed to be able to respond to that. So there is good reason to worry.” One particular area she cited was inequality, specifically the extent to which benefits during the longest expansion in U.S. history have flowed mostly to top earners and those with post-high school education levels. Despite the central bank’s efforts to guide the economy, Yellen cited “a very worrisome long-term [trend] in which you have a very substantial share of the U.S. workforce feeling like they’re not getting ahead. It’s true, they’re not getting ahead.” “It’s a serious economic problem and social problem because it means the gains of our economic system are not being widely shared,” she added. “It leaves people ultimately with the feeling that the economy is not working for them, a sense of social discontent that is extremely disruptive.”
25 Times Trump Has Been Dangerously Hawkish On Russia - Caitlin Johnstone - CNN has published a fascinatingly manipulative and falsehood-laden article titled “25 times Trump was soft on Russia“, in which a lot of strained effort is poured into building the case that the US president is suspiciously loyal to the nation against which he has spent his administration escalating dangerous new cold war aggressions. The items within the CNN article consist mostly of times in which Trump said some words or failed to say other words; “Trump has repeatedly praised Putin”, “Trump refused to say Putin is a killer”, “Trump denied that Russia interfered in 2016”, “Trump made light of Russian hacking”, etc. It also includes the completely false but oft-repeated narrative that “Trump’s team softened the GOP platform on Ukraine”, as well as the utterly ridiculous and thoroughly invalidated claim that “Since intervening in Syria in 2015, the Russian military has focused its airstrikes on anti-government rebels, not ISIS.” CNN’s 25 items are made up almost entirely of narrative and words; Trump said a nice thing about Putin, Trump said offending things to NATO allies, Trump thought about visiting Putin in Russia, etc. In contrast, the 25 items which I am about to list do not consist of narrative at all, but rather the actual movement of actual concrete objects which can easily lead to an altercation from which there may be no re-emerging. These items show that when you ignore the words and narrative spin and look at what this administration has actually been doing, it’s clear to anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty that, far from being “soft” on Russia, Trump has actually been consistently reckless in the one area where a US president must absolutely always maintain a steady hand. And he’s been doing so with zero resistance from either party. It would be understandable if you were unaware that Trump has been escalating tensions with Moscow more than any other president since the fall of the Berlin Wall; it’s a fact that neither of America’s two mainstream political factions care about, so it tends to get lost in the shuffle. Trump’s opposition is interested in painting him as a sycophantic Kremlin crony, and his supporters are interested in painting him as an antiwar hero of the people, but he is neither. Observe:
The So-Called War on Terror Has Killed Over 801,000 People and Cost $6.4 Trillion: New Analysis - The so-called War on Terror launched by the United States government in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks has cost at least 801,000 lives and $6.4 trillion according to a pair of reports published Wednesday by the Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs."The numbers continue to accelerate, not only because many wars continue to be waged, but also because wars don't end when soldiers come home," said Costs of War co-director and Brown professor Catherine Lutz, who co-authored the project's report on deaths."These reports provide a reminder that even if fewer soldiers are dying and the U.S. is spending a little less on the immediate costs of war today, the financial impact is still as bad as, or worse than, it was 10 years ago," Lutz added. "We will still be paying the bill for these wars on terror into the 22nd century."The new Human Cost of Post-9/11 Wars report (pdf) tallies "direct deaths" in major war zones, grouping people by civilians; humanitarian and NGO workers; journalists and media workers; U.S. military members, Department of Defense civilians, and contractors; and members of national military and police forces as well as other allied troops and opposition fighters. The report sorts direct deaths by six categories: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria/ISIS, Yemen, and "Other." The civilian death toll across all regions is up to 335,745 — or nearly 42% of the total figure. Notably, the report "does not include indirect deaths, namely those caused by loss of access to food, water, and/or infrastructure, war-related disease, etc." By the end of 2020, the post-9/11 wars will have cost over 801,000 lives and $6.4 trillion. See our latest figures, released today at https://t.co/6aoJd0LazZ. pic.twitter.com/Ge5S85MmkR — The Costs of War Project (@CostsOfWar) November 13, 2019 Indirect deaths "are generally estimated to be four times higher," Costs of War board member and American University professor David Vine wrote in an op-ed for The Hill Wednesday. "This means that total deaths during the post-2001 U.S. wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Yemen is likely to reach 3.1 million or more —around 200 times the number of U.S. dead." "Don't we have a responsibility to wrestle with our individual and collective responsibility for the destruction our government has inflicted?" Vine asked in his op-ed. "Our tax dollars and implied consent have made these wars possible. While the United States is obviously not the only actor responsible for the damage done in the post-2001 wars, U.S. leaders bear the bulk of responsibility for launching catastrophic wars that were never inevitable, that were wars of choice."
Pentagon Procurement and the Laws of Physics -- Old boys of a certain age can recall “playing war” with small, plastic Army men, vanquishing foes on the plains of Europe or Pacific islands. In those halcyon years following World War II, it seemed to us like American soldiers could do anything, from thwarting enemy bazookas with their bare hands to facing down flamethrowers. We were kids, and knew nothing of reality or the laws of physics. But unlike us, it looks like the Pentagon has never grown up. While the laws of economics have never really applied to the Pentagon, those of physics certainly do. That’s why it’s on the verge of building an Infantry Squad Vehicle designed to parachute onto the battlefield. The vehicle will almost surely end up facing the same fate as an earlier version the Pentagon tried to field: being either too heavy to fly or too light to protect the troops. The military will likely end up, once again, with what those on the front lines derisively call “tactical golf carts”—vehicles relegated to the sidelines in combat after taxpayers spent millions on a truck billed as a war machine. Such wonder weapons are the ultimate bait-and-switch: Taxpayers pay a premium for combat utility that too often evaporates on the battlefield, while troops can pay in blood. The only winners are the Pentagon weapons-buying bureaucracy and its contractors, who perpetually promise more than they can deliver. While the laws of economics have never really applied to the Pentagon, those of physics certainly do. Of course, one reason those economic laws have never applied is the U.S. military’s continuing apparent efforts to ignore the laws of physics. And while the military has at times eclipsed what physics seemed to allow (radar, nuclear weapons, and GPS come to mind), there are many more examples where ignoring physics has been disastrous for the budget. With its continuing missile-defense dream of shooting down bullets with bullets (or lasers) while ignoring incoming decoys, the Pentagon is seeking to break the laws of physics. So too with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, an elastic design stretched to fit the needs of the Air Force, Marines, and Navy. Crammed with compromises to serve three masters, it isn’t optimal for any pilot. The F-35 echoes the 1960s’ failed TFX program, whose goal was to build an airplane with moveable, sweeping wings, and which the Air Force and Navy could share. The Pentagon’s corner-cutting to try to meet the services’ conflicting range and speed requirements plus the Navy’s need for a beefed-up aircraft capable of punishing carrier landings proved too great. So only the Air Force ended up flying the TFX, which became the F-111. Because the U.S. military didn’t learn the lesson of the F-111, the nation is now burdened with the F-35, the most costly—not to mention mediocre—weapon system in history.
America’s Arms Sales Addiction -- It’s no secret that Donald Trump is one of the most aggressive arms salesmen in history. How do we know? Because he tells us so at every conceivable opportunity. It started with his much exaggerated “$110 billion arms deal” with Saudi Arabia, announced on his first foreign trip as president. It continued with his White House photo op with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which he brandished a map with a state-by-state rundown of American jobs supposedly tied to arms sales to the kingdom. And it’s never ended. In these years in office, in fact, the president has been a staunch advocate for his good friends at Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and General Dynamics — the main corporate beneficiaries of the U.S.-Saudi arms trade (unlike the thousands of American soldiers the president recently sent into that country’s desert landscapes to defend its oil facilities).All the American arms sales to the Middle East have had a severe and lasting set of consequences in the region in, as a start, the brutal Saudi/United Arab Emirates war in Yemen, which has killedthousands of civilians via air strikes using U.S. weaponry and pushed millions of Yemenis to the brink of famine. And don’t forget the recent Turkish invasion of Syria in which both the Turkish forces and the Kurdish-led militias they attacked relied heavily on U.S.-supplied weaponry.Donald Trump has made it abundantly clear that he cares far more about making deals for that weaponry than who uses any of it against whom. It’s important to note, however, that, historically speaking, he’s been anything but unique in his obsession with promoting such weapons exports (though he is uniquely loud about doing so). Despite its supposedly strained relationship with the Saudi regime, the Obama administration, for example, still managed to offer the royals of that kingdom a record $136 billion in U.S. weapons between 2009 and 2017. Not all of those offers resulted in final sales, but striking numbers did. Items sold included Boeing F-15 combat aircraft and Apache attack helicopters, General Dynamics M-1 tanks, Raytheon precision-guided bombs, and Lockheed Martin bombs, combat ships, and missile defense systems. Many of those weapons have since been put to use in the war in Yemen. Washington’s role as the Middle East’s top arms supplier has its roots in remarks made by Richard Nixon half a century ago on the island of Guam. To “avoid another war like Vietnam anywhere in the world,” he was instead putting a new policy in place, later described by a Pentagon official as “sending arms instead of sending troops.” The core of what came to be known as the Nixon Doctrine was the arming of regional surrogates, countries with sympathetic rulers or governments that could promote U.S. interests without major contingents of the American military being on hand. Of such potential surrogates at that moment, the most important was the Shah of Iran, with whom a CIA-British intelligence coup replaced a civilian government back in 1953 and who proved to have an insatiable appetite for top-of-the-line U.S. weaponry.
U.S. breaks off defense cost talks, as South Korea balks at $5 billion demand (Reuters) - The United States broke off talks with South Korea on increasing Seoul’s contribution to the costs of hosting U.S. troops, after the two sides failed to narrow their differences on Tuesday in a row that has raised questions about the American deployment. The breakdown in talks was a rare public sign of discord in the “airtight” alliance that has for 70 years formed a buffer against North Korean aggression, with each side blaming the other for being unprepared to compromise on sharing the costs of keeping 28,500 U.S. military personnel in South Korea. U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted that South Korea pay more - and has also suggested pulling the troops out altogether. “It is true that there is a substantial difference between the U.S. side’s overall proposal and the principles we pursue,” South Korean negotiator Jeong Eun-bo told a news conference. “The talks could not proceed as planned as the U.S. side left first.” The talks took place amid stalled U.S. efforts to reach a negotiated end to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes. South Korean lawmakers have said the United States is seeking up to $5 billion a year, more than five times the 1.04 trillion won ($890.54 million) South Korea agreed to pay this year. Neither side has publicly confirmed the numbers, but Trump has said the U.S. military presence in and around South Korea was “$5 billion worth of protection”.
Amazon Says It Didn’t Get a $10 Billion Contract Because Trump Hates Bezos - Amazon lost a major government contract to its rival Microsoft—and it’s pretty pissed about it. The megacorp plans to challenge the Pentagon’s October decision to award its $10 billion cloud-computing contract to Microsoft. The plan seeks to modernize the military’s IT operations, consolidating the vast majority of its war systems into a system called JEDI. IBM and Oracle were also being considered for the contract; the former launched a legal challenge days before contract bids were due, while the latter is launching its third legal challenge last week. But Amazon's protest, filed on Thursday, claims the decision was made for political reasons. Drew Herdener, an Amazon spokesman, said in a statement: It’s critical for our country that the government and its elected leaders administer procurements objectively and in a manner that is free from political influence. Numerous aspects of the JEDI evaluation process contained clear deficiencies, errors, and unmistakable bias—and it’s important that these matters be examined and rectified. In July, President Trump “very seriously” considering intervening on Microsoft’s behalf. This, in part, led to a Pentagon media briefing that attempted to offer assurances of objectivity. For years, Trump has publicly badgered Amazon CEO and Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos on Twitter. Officials insisted it was Chinese tech companies, not the President’s comments about intervening, that were the real threat here. Lt. Gen. John Shanahan, head of the Pentagon's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, insisted that "our adversaries are moving ahead at their own pace, whether it's with Alibaba, Baidu, or Tencent.” In late October, a book by a former staff member of Pentagon Chief Jim Mattis claimed Trump wanted to "screw Amazon" out of the JEDI contract. Amazon’s fall from grace was also accelerated by a series of scandals, political interventions, and growing competitor backlash which increasingly pushed the company out of favor despite its dominance of the cloud computing industry. “We’re surprised about this conclusion,” an AWS spokesperson said at the time. “AWS is the clear leader in cloud computing, and a detailed assessment purely on the comparative offerings clearly lead to a different conclusion.”
Patriot Act extension buried in funding bill passed by House Democrats - On Tuesday, House Democrats overwhelmingly voted for a stop-gap government funding bill that includes an unannounced provision, buried in the legislation, averting the expiration of the police state surveillance Patriot Act. Coming in the midst of the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, based entirely on differences over US foreign policy toward Ukraine and Russia, the extension of the Patriot Act underscores the absence of any democratic content in the Democrats’ opposition to the Trump administration. The Patriot Act, passed by a lopsided bipartisan vote in both houses of Congress in October, 2001, following the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington DC, empowers the National Security Agency (NSA), the FBI and other intelligence agencies to engage in mass surveillance of the population in violation of the Bill of Rights. The act was scheduled to expire on December 15 of this year. The renewal in the House spending bill extends the law for an additional three months, until March 15, 2020. It includes Section 215, which allows the government to collect metadata without court authorization. Section 215 authorizes the NSA to access and analyze bulk logs of Americans’ domestic phone calls. The agency collected 534 million records in 2018, according to an inspector general report. The legal sanction for that particular spying system actually expired earlier this year. The Democrats’ short-term spending bill reauthorizes the mass surveillance program for 90 days. The same section of the funding bill also extends expiring FBI surveillance powers, including one that permits agents involved in national security cases to get court orders to obtain business records and to follow a wiretapping target who changes phones. “Congress should have ended this beleaguered spying program and enacted meaningful surveillance reform a long time ago,” said Neema Singh Guliani, a legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union. “It is disappointing that Congress is instead extending spying powers that have repeatedly been used to violate Americans’ privacy rights, and trying to bury this extension in must-pass funding legislation.” The so-called “continuing resolution” maintains current federal funding levels through December 20, with the aim of averting a government shutdown at 12:01 a.m. Friday, when a previous continuing resolution passed in September expires. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said the Republican-led chamber will pass the measure on Thursday, and various administration officials have stated that Trump will sign it before the midnight deadline. The bill passed by a near-party line vote of 231 to 192. Republican opposition—only 12 GOP representatives voted for it—was based not on the extension of the Patriot Act, which has broad bipartisan support, but on the bill’s failure to include an additional $5 billion demanded by the White House for construction of Trump’s border wall with Mexico.
Bolivia Proves That Latin America Cannot Exit The American Empire - Jeanine Anez, one of the Bolivian Spanish elite, has declared herself the President of Bolivia. She is one of the elite allied with Washington who accused Evo Morales of rigging his reelection. But the CIA’s Bolivian lackeys who forced Morales to resign his presidency don’t bother with elections. They just declare themselves president like Juan Guaido, the CIA creep in Venezuela, who hoped to unseat Maduro, the elected president, by declaring himself president. Neither Anez nor Guaido ran for the office. They just self-appointed themselves president. The organization of American States, a CIA front organization, accepted the unelected presidents as rightful rulers. President Trump declared the CIA coup to be an increase in freedom and democracy. As Trump approves of the attempted coup against Venezuela’s Maduro and the successful coup against Bolivia’s Morales, how can he complain about the CIA/DNC ongoing coup against him? Live by the sword and die by the sword. The whores that constitute the Western “media” pretend that self-declared “presidents” are the real presidents, and those elected by the people are not. Every Latin American election that does not elect Washington’s candidate is reported by the Western presstitutes as a “disputed election.” It doesn’t matter if the winning candidate gets 85% of the votes. As he is the wrong candidate from Washington’s standpoint, his election is disputed and illegitimate. Washington paid the corrupt Bolivian military to unseat Morales, the elected president. This has always been the way Washington has ruled the entirety of Latin America. Buy the corrupt military. They will prostitute their wives for money. In Latin America everyone is accustomed to being bought. Only Cuba and Venezuela and perhaps Nicaguara have avoided this subservience to Washington. With the pressures on them mounting, how long these three progressive regimes can hold out against Washington remains to be seen. I wouldn’t bet my life on their survival as independent countries. Even Russia and China are threatened by regime change, and both governments seem to be in self-denial about it. It is a mystery why any Latin American country or any country that hopes to be independent would permit any US presence in the country. US presence in a Latin American country or any country precludes any independence on the part of the country’s government. Latin Americans would rather have Washington’s money than their independence. What has happened everywhere in the world is that nothing is any longer important but money. Therefore, everything is sacrificed for money. There is no shame, no honor, no integrity, no truth, no justice. Maybe the biblical prophesies are true, and Armageddon is our future. Who can say we don’t deserve it.
Unpacking Media Propaganda About Bolivia’s Election - To endorse the coup in Bolivia, numerous editorials in major US media outlets paint President Evo Morales as undemocratic. Exhibit A in their case is the Organization of American States’ (OAS) claims that there was fraud in the October 20 Bolivian election in which Morales was elected for a fourth term. They also argue that he should not have been allowed to run again in the first place. The New York Times’ editorial (11/11/19) accused Morales of “brazenly abusing the power and institutions put in his care by the electorate.” The Washington Post (11/11/19) alleged that “a majority of Bolivians wanted [Morales] to leave office”—a claim for which they provided no evidence—while claiming that he had “grown increasingly autocratic” and that “his downfall was his insatiable appetite for power.” The Wall Street Journal (11/11/19) argued that Morales “is a victim of his own efforts to steal another election,” saying that Morales “has rigged the rules time and again to stay in power.” The first basis on which the papers call Morales’ democratic legitimacy into question is by suggesting that he had no right to run in the 2019 election because he lost a 2016 referendum on whether the country should abolish term limits. But the next year, Bolivia’s constitutional court lifted limits to re-election, and its Supreme Electoral Court subsequently approved Morales’ run. Even the head of the OAS, which would go on to play a crucial role in the coup,agreed that Morales had a right to run. To support its assertion that Morales “had grown increasingly autocratic,” the Post linked to anAP report (Guardian, 12/17/16) that said Morales was going to run despite losing the referendum. That article was from before the two court rulings, and the Post doesn’t mention those decisions at any point. Thus readers were given the inaccurate message that the term limits story ended with the referendum. To suggest—as these papers do—that the Morales government’s maneuvers were indicative of a country descending into dictatorship is to overlook the ways in which the courts are consciously designed to function as checks on the popular will in liberal democratic states like the US and Canada. And if, as these paper seem to assert, the presence or absence of executive term limits is a definitive marker of democracy, then one assumes that there will soon be a deluge of editorials calling for coups in Canada and Britain, because these countries don’t have prime ministerial term limits (and the United States had no presidential term limits for most of its history).
It Was A Coup. Period - Tulsi Gabbard Slams US 'Interference' In Bolivia -Democratic Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard has come out swinging on Bolivia, following an initial period of being silent and reflection on the issue after leftist President Evo Morales was forced to step down on November 10 over growing anger at election irregularities, whereupon he was given political asylum in Mexico. “What happened in Bolivia is a coup. Period,” Gabbard wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Friday while warning against any US interference. “The United States and other countries should not be interfering in the Bolivian people’s pursuit of self-determination and right to choose their own government,” she argued.Washington had been quick to endorse and recognize opposition senator Jeanine Anez as 'interim president' after she controversially declared herself such without a senatorial quorum or public vote, and as Morales' Movement for Socialism was said to be barred from the senate building when it happened. What happened in Bolivia is a coup. Period. The United States and other countries should not be interfering in the Bolivian people's pursuit of self-determination and right to choose their own government. — Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) November 22, 2019Gabbard's statement, which again sets her far apart from a large field of establishment and centrist candidates on foreign policy issues, comes a few days after Bernie Sanders was the first to condemn the events which led to Evo's ouster as a military coup. “When the military intervened and asked President Evo Morales to leave, in my view, that’s called a coup,” Sanders tweeted Monday, while linking to a video showing Bolivian security forces dispersing an indigenous pro-Morales protest using a volley of tear gas canisters.
Democratic establishment reaches boiling point with Tulsi Gabbard - Tulsi Gabbard trashed the Democratic Party as “not the party that is of, by and for the people,” accused Kamala Harris of trafficking in “lies and smears and innuendo” and attacked Pete Buttigieg as naive.Her performance at Wednesday’s debate earned an attaboy from the Trump War Room. And some rank-and-file Democrats are at wit's end with the congresswoman who Hillary Clinton called “the favorite of the Russians.”“The question is whether she seriously hopes to be the nominee or if she has another agenda … her attacks on other candidates and her positions on issues seem very personal, not so much about a set of policies or worldview,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). Bernie Sanders has “a coherent set of principles. Elizabeth Warren’s the same. I don’t perceive a fixed set of principles or worldview on her part.”Demonstrating how divisive her campaign has become, the Trump War Room tweeted out a video clip of Gabbard attacking her own party with a “100” emoji. It received 4,500 retweets and 15,000 likes.“She sort of seems to be filling a pretty strange lane. Is there a part of the party that hates the party?” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “It’s a little hard to figure out what itch she’s trying to scratch in the Democratic Party right now.” The Hawaii congresswoman’s presence on the debate stage is becoming a headache for the party as she uses the platform to appeal to isolationists, dissatisfied liberals and even conservatives. She has managed to secure a spot on the debate stage as more mainstream candidates like Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D-Mont.) failed to meet polling and donor thresholds to participate. “She has views on foreign policy that are so outside the mainstream as to be a real liability to the Democratic Party,” said another Democratic senator, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss the party’s issue with Gabbard. “It is corrosive to have folks on that stage who represent views that are clearly not right.”
Top Bolivian coup plotters trained by US military’s School of the Americas, served as attachés in FBI police programs - Commanders of Bolivia’s military and police helped plot the coup and guaranteed its success. They were previously educated for insurrection in the US government’s notorious School of the Americas and FBI training programs.The United States played a key role in the military coup in Bolivia, and in a direct way that has scarcely been acknowledged in accounts of the events that forced the country’s elected president, Evo Morales, to resign on November 10. Just prior to Morales’ resignation, the commander of Bolivia’s armed forces Williams Kaliman “suggested” that the president step down. A day earlier, sectors of the country’s police force had rebelled. Though Kaliman appears to have feigned loyalty to Morales over the years, his true colors showed as soon as the moment of opportunity arrived. He was not only an actor in the coup, he had his own history in Washington, where he had briefly served as the military attaché of Bolivia’s embassy in the US capital. Kaliman sat at the top of a military and police command structure that has been substantially cultivated by the US through WHINSEC, the military training school in Fort Benning, Georgia known in the past as the School of the Americas. Kaliman himself attended a course called “Comando y Estado Mayor” at the SOA in 2003.At least six of the key coup plotters are alumni of the infamous School of the Americas, while Kaliman and another figure served in the past as Bolivia’s military and police attachés in Washington. Within the B olivian police, top commanders who helped launch the coup have passed through the APALA police exchange program. Working out of Washington DC, APALA functions to build relations between U.S. authorities and police officials from Latin American states. Despite its influence, or perhaps because of it, the program maintains little public presence. Its staff was impossible for this researcher to reach by phone.
Shut Down the School of the Americas/ WHINSEC The School of the Americas/WHINSEC in Fort Benning, Georgia, has become notorious for training and enabling torturers, dictators, and massacres throughout the Western Hemisphere. But the SOA’s crimes aren’t a thing of the past — the school is still training the human rights abusers of today, especially through ICE and the Border Patrol. SOA was founded in the Panama Canal Zone in 1946 and expelled from Panama to Fort Benning near Columbus, Georgia, in 1984. The slain Jesuit priests worked in solidarity with El Salvador’s poor and marginalized and were outspoken critics of the country’s military dictatorship. They are among the 75,000 civilians murdered during the US-backed war in El Salvador between 1980 and 1992. The SOA has trained more than 83,000 Latin American security forces since its founding. Notorious graduates of the SOA — including nearly a dozen dictators and some of the worst human rights violators in the continent — are guilty of using torture, rape, assassination, forced disappearance, massacres, and forced displacement of communities to wage war against their own people. Former Panamanian president Jorge Illueca stated that the School of the Americas was the “biggest base for destabilization in Latin America.” US-led and supported state violence abroad has ravaged and devastated communities in Central and South America, many of whose people are forced to migrate north. On September 20, 1996, under intense public scrutiny, the Pentagon released theSOA training manuals, which advocated torture, extortion, blackmail, and the targeting of civilian populations. The release of these manuals proved that US taxpayer money was used to teach Latin American state forces how to torture and repress civilian populations. A US congressional task force reported that those responsible for the 1989 UCA massacre in El Salvador were trained at the US Army School of the Americas, and as public pressure mounted to close the SOA, the Department of Defense responded by replacing the School of the Americas with the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation (WHINSEC) in January 2001. The measure passed when the House of Representatives defeated a bipartisan amendment to close the school and conduct a congressional investigation by a narrow ten-vote margin. The opening of WHINSEC is not grounded in any critical assessment of the training, procedures, performance, or consequences of the training program it copies. Further, it ignores congressional concerns and the public outcry over the SOA’s past and present links to human rights atrocities.To this day, WHINSEC continues to train Latin American security officers — including immigration officials.
The Betrayal of the Kurds - The full consequences of President Trump’s decision on October 6 to withdraw American troops and give Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a green light to invade northeast Syria are not yet clear. Erdoğan claimed that he wanted to create a twenty-mile buffer zone in which perhaps one million Syrian refugees living in Turkey could be resettled, but he may have had the ambition of turning all of northeast Syria over to the Islamists whom Turkey had sponsored in western Syria during the country’s civil war and who were largely defeated there. Thanks to deft Russian diplomacy, that ambition—which could have reignited the Syrian civil war just as it was winding down—appears to have been largely thwarted. But it is hard to imagine a more calamitous outcome for the United States, the Kurds, NATO, and possibly Turkey itself. Turkey is unlikely to accomplish its stated objective of eliminating Kurdish control of the border zone, while its invasion threatens to rupture relations with the West and lead to sanctions that would further shrink a contracting economy. Before the Turkish offensive, which began on October 9, Syria was essentially divided along the Euphrates River (see map below). To the west, the Syrian government had mostly overcome a disparate group of foes, including Islamists, Turkish proxies, warlords, and a small number of Western-oriented democrats. Only Idlib governorate in the northwest remained outside the control of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. To the east of the Euphrates, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controlled almost one third of the country. With US air support and the assistance of around three thousand US special forces and CIA operatives, the SDF had prevailed in a five-year battle with ISIS, whose “caliphate” had at its peak in late 2014 controlled more of Syria than either the government or the Kurds. During that time, the SDF lost 11,000 fighters, while the US sustained five combat casualties.The situation was, of course, most tragic for the Kurds. The major Kurdish cities in Syria are on the Turkish border or very close to it. Qamishli, the largest, is divided from the Turkish city of Nusaybin by a concrete wall. Kobane, the site of the ferocious 2014 siege by ISIS that prompted a US intervention, also backs up against the border wall. Other cities—Tal Abyad, Derik, Rumeila, Amuda—touch the wall or are close to it. In the first days of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring (an Orwellian designation even by modern military standards), Turkish shelling and air strikes killed hundreds and—along with Turkey’s Syrian proxies—drove 200,000 civilians from their homes.
‘There Is No More Two-State Solution': Trump Administration to Further Soften Opposition to West Bank Settlements -U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday that the President Donald Trump administration will "soften" its stance on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, a move that reverses decades of precedent and effectively kills the two-state solution peace process.The Associated Press's Matthew Lee broke the story Monday afternoon. Pompeo claimed that "calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law has not advanced the cause of peace.""The hard truth is that there will never be a judicial resolution to the conflict," said Pompeo, "and arguments about who is right and who is wrong as a matter of international law will not bring peace." According to Amnesty International, the settlements are a war crime: The international community has consistently recognized that settlements contravene international law and create a situation which perpetuates a range of violations of Palestinian human rights including, but not limited to, discriminatory policies based on nationality, ethnicity, and religion. U.S. policy toward the settlements has largely been limited to public rebukes with no actual consequences.
US declares Israeli settlements no longer illegal - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday that the United States no longer views Israeli settlements on Palestinian land seized during the 1967 Arab-Israel war as illegal. In doing so, he is giving the extreme right-wing caretaker government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu carte blanche to accelerate the creation of new Zionist settlements and the expansion of existing ones. The US ruling is a green light for an escalation in the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from East Jerusalem and the annexation of Palestinian land. The ruling announced by Pompeo also makes clear that Washington will brook no constraints on its pursuit of US hegemony via criminal wars of conquest, annexations and the re-imposition of naked colonialism. His announcement at a State Department press conference amounts to an argument for abrogating all existing international laws if the US views them as an obstacle to its interests. For the Trump administration, what is “lawful” will be determined by those interests and the use of military force to achieve them. Pompeo said, “After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees ... (the) establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent with international law.” “Calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law has not advanced the cause of peace,” he said. “The hard truth is that there will never be a judicial resolution to the conflict, and arguments about who is right and who is wrong as a matter of international law will not bring peace.” The Trump administration would therefore reverse previous US governments’ “approach” to the settlements issue that held that civilian settlements in the occupied territories are “inconsistent with international law.” From now on, the legality of individual settlements would be a matter for the Israeli courts to decide.
'Naked Violation' of Human Rights: Global Condemnation Over New US Position on Israeli Occupation - A worldwide chorus of condemnation continued Tuesday over the U.S. decision to no longer ofiicially consider Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank illegal. Michael Lynk, U.N. Special Rapporteur for the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territory, said the decision was "not a step towards peace or justice in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." "The American government's decision to jettison international law and to legitimise the illegal Israeli settlements is probably the very last nail in the coffin of the two-state solution," said Lynk. "This would meet the international definition of apartheid." As Common Dreams reported Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo justified his announcement that the U.S. would no longer consider the settlements illegal with a claim that "calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law has not advanced the cause of peace." Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) replied to the announcement Monday afternoon saying the move was the result of President Donald Trump "pandering to his extremist base." In a statement, Amnesty International USA advocacy director for the Middle East and North Africa, Philippe Nassif said that Monday's "announcement does not and will not change the law which is crystal clear: the construction and maintenance of settlements in the Occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, breaches international law and amounts to war crimes."
US to Europe: Fix Open Skies Treaty or we quit — NATO allies worried U.S. President Donald Trump will abandon the Open Skies Treaty have been told the administration views the arms control agreement as a danger to U.S. national security, and that unless those nations can assuage such concerns, the U.S. will likely pull out, Defense News has learned.At a meeting in Brussels last week, Trump administration officials laid out for the first time a full suite of concerns with the treaty and made clear they were seriously considering an exit. The agreement, ratified in 2002, allows mutualreconnaissance flights over its 34 members, including the U.S. and Russia.According to one senior administration official, the U.S. delegation presented classified intelligence to the foreign officials to explain its concerns, chiefly that Russian forces are “misusing the treaty in their targeting of critical U.S. infrastructure,” and to request help from allies to address those concerns if the treaty is to be saved.“This is a U.S. position — that we think this treaty is a danger to our national security. We get nothing out of it. Our allies get nothing out of it, and it is our intention to withdraw, similar to what we did with [the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty]. From our perspective, the analysis is done,” the senior Trump administration official said. “The Europeans got that. It was a splash of cold water on their faces.” The NATO allies did not reach an agreement at that meeting, the official noted.
China accuses US of interference after Senate passes bills supporting Hong Kong protesters --China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday criticized the U.S. after the Senate unanimously passed a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters.The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” interferes in China’s domestic affairs, said foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, according to an online statement in Chinese.China “strongly condemns and resolutely opposes” the act of interference, Geng said hours after the bill was passed.That bill now proceeds to the House, which already approved its own version of the bill in October. The two chambers of Congress have to work out differences between their bills before it can be sent to President Donald Trump.The upper house of Congress also passed a separate bill banning certain munition exports to the Hong Kong police.Hong Kong is a former British colony and returned to Chinese rule in 1997. As a special administrative region of China, the city operates under a “one country, two systems” structure, which grants its residents legal and economic freedoms that citizens in mainland China do not have.China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it has made stern representations to a U.S. embassy official in Beijing on Wednesday after the proposed legislation was passed in the Senate. It said Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu summoned William Klein, the U.S. embassy’s minister counselor for political affairs. Ma told Klein that Hong Kong’s affairs are the internal affairs of China, and demanded that the U.S. stop interfering.
China Bashes NYT’s Xinjiang Story as Warren, Buttigieg Criticize - China lashed out at a New York Times story on its incarceration of Muslims in its far western region of Xinjiang as its policies drew fresh criticism from U.S. presidential candidates. The newspaper’s Sunday report, which drew on more than 400 pages of leaked official documents, was part of an attempt to “smear” China and “disregarded the facts,” foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press briefing in Beijing Monday. The piece included classified speeches directing policy in Xinjiang made by President Xi Jinping and Xinjiang Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, who oversees the region.China’s response came as the Times’ story drew attention from leading U.S. Democratic presidential candidates. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts shared the story on Twitter, describing China’s treatment of Muslims as “bigoted” and “horrifying.” Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Indiana, wrote on Twitter that “China is waging a shocking, merciless campaign to erase the religious and ethnic identity of millions.”The candidates are the latest voices to criticize China’s policy in the region, which has long been called out by activists and rights groups. China, which is facing anti-government unrest in Hong Kong and growing economic headwinds in the mainland, has sought to defend its detention of Muslims to the world -- bringing reporters on guided tours of Xinjiang and the so-called re-education camps where hundreds of thousands are thought to be held.
U.S., China to Tie Tariff Relief to Failed Deal From May - The near-deal between the U.S. and China that fell apart six months ago is now being used as the benchmark to decide how much tariffs should be rolled back in the initial phase of a broader trade agreement, people familiar with the talks said.The two sides, who are locked in tough -- perhaps final -- negotiations on a phase-one pact, are discussing linking the size of tariff rollbacks to the preliminary terms set in that failed May deal, according to the people, two of whom said the White House is still debating the precise percentage internally. The Chinese have demanded that all tariffs imposed after May be removed immediately and then tariffs imposed before that be lifted gradually, according to one of the people. The duties under discussion for a potential rollback include the initial tariffs on some $250 billion in Chinese goods that President Donald Trump imposed last year, according to two people. Some of his advisers had been pushing to keep those in place longer term, to ensure China lives up to its end of the bargain, but now are open to a partial relief in order to get the phase one deal signed. With the economies of both countries -- and, more broadly, across the globe -- showing clear signs of softening under the weight of the tariffs, negotiators are under growing pressure to ink a deal, or at least part of it. But with thousands of products caught in the tariff tit-for-tat over the past year, the two sides have the complicated task of sorting through and deciding which goods get relief or not. U.S. officials have differing views on how much phase one would cover and what portion of the tariffs the Trump administration should agree to roll back, two people familiar with the matter said. The internal figure under discussion ranges from around 35%, pushed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to the 60% that Trump has said the deal encompasses, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the talks are private. Once both countries have settled on a number, either the tariff rate could be lowered by the agreed-upon percentage or tariffs could be eliminated based on that figure. Analysts say the first phase covers significantly less than what Trump has been promising publicly because it leaves on the table most of the thorny issues at the heart of the trade dispute. There’s also widespread skepticism on both sides that the countries would ever reach a second-phase agreement that would tackle structural reforms.
A U.S.-China 'phase one' trade deal may not be inked this year (Reuters) - Completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House said, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own. An initial trade deal could take as long as five weeks to sign, U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said here month. Just over five weeks later, a deal is still elusive, and negotiations may be getting more complicated, trade experts and people briefed on the talks told Reuters this week. Asked Wednesday about the status of the China deal, Trump told reporters in Texas “I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want.” Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer recognize that rolling back tariffs for a deal that fails to address core intellectual property and technology transfer issues will not be seen as a good deal for the United States, a person briefed on the matter said. In a dinner speech in Beijing on Wednesday, Vice Premier Liu He said he was “cautiously optimistic” on a phase one deal, Bloomberg News said, citing people who attended the event ahead of a forum organized by Bloomberg LP. Liu, China’s chief negotiator at the Sino-U.S. trade talks, separately told one of the attendees that he was “confused” about the U.S. demands, but was confident the first phase of a deal could be completed nevertheless, Bloomberg added. Officials from Beijing had suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump might sign a deal in early December.
Beijing tariff demands may expand U.S.-China 'phase one' trade deal significantly - (Reuters) - A “phase one” trade deal between the United States and China was supposed to be a limited agreement that would allow leaders from both countries to claim an easy victory while soothing financial markets. But it may morph into something bigger if U.S. President Donald Trump agrees to Beijing’s demands to roll back existing tariffs on Chinese goods, people familiar with the talks say. China’s commerce ministry said this month that removing tariffs imposed during the trade war is an important condition to any deal. The demand has U.S. officials wondering if higher Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods, promises of improved access to China’s financial services industry, and pledges to protect intellectual property are enough to ask in return. Two people briefed on the talks said Trump has decided that rolling back existing tariffs, in addition to canceling a scheduled Dec. 15 imposition of tariffs on some $156 billion in Chinese consumer goods, requires deeper concessions from China. “The president wants the option of having a bigger deal with China. Bigger than just the little deal” announced in October, said Derek Scissors, a China scholar with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Scissors, who consults with administration officials, said whether Trump will agree to remove existing tariffs depends largely on whether he believes it will benefit his re-election chances. Some White House advisers would like to see China agree to large, specific agricultural purchases, while the U.S. maintains existing tariffs for future leverage.
Trump repeats threat to escalate tariffs if no China trade deals reached - It is now almost six weeks since US President Trump emerged from a meeting with top-level Chinese officials at the White House to declare that an “in principle” agreement had been reached on a “phase one” trade agreement. The expected signing date of November 16–17 has come and gone and the two sides have yet to make a deal. The two main sticking points are: reluctance by the Chinese side to give specific figures for increased agricultural imports—Trump is demanding they be doubled from pre-trade war levels to around $50 billion within two years—and the refusal of the US to give any commitment on the rollback of existing tariffs as insisted on by Beijing. On Tuesday, for the second time in a week, Trump made a public threat to escalate tariffs unless an agreement is reached. “China’s going to have to make a deal that I like, if they don’t do it that’s it. If we don’t make a deal with China, I’ll just raise the tariffs higher,” he told reporters. The US has already threatened to impose a 15 percent tariff on a range of $160 billion worth of consumer goods from China including smart phones and laptop commuters—many of them Apple products—on December 15 if no agreement is reached. The negotiations have been further complicated by the passage in the US Senate of legislation that would force the administration to annually review Hong Kong’s special trading status—a move that brought condemnation from China and a call for the White House to block it. The passage of the bill had been called for by sections of the Hong Kong democracy protest movement. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said “attempted tricks” by the US aimed at interference in China’s internal affairs and to “hinder China’s development will not prevail.” Vice President Mike Pence, who has warned in two major speeches in the last year about the threat posed to the US by China’s economic and technological development, has directly linked the issue of Hong Kong to the trade talks. He said on Tuesday it would be tough for the US to sign a trade agreement with China if the Hong Kong demonstrations were met with violence from Beijing.
Trump can no longer impose 'Section 232' auto tariffs after missing deadline: experts (Reuters) - The clock has run out on President Donald Trump’s “Section 232” tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars and auto parts, after he failed to announce a decision by a self-imposed deadline, trade law experts say. The U.S. administration may have to find other means if Trump wants to tax European or Japanese car imports, a key part of the U.S. president’s pledge to make America’s trade relationships more fair, the experts say. Their argument centers on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, a U.S. law aimed at protecting America’s Cold War-era defense industrial base. Section 232 of that act lays out how a U.S. president can tax specific imports if the Department of Commerce deems them a threat to national security. The Trump administration launched its Section 232 probe of foreign autos in May 2018. Six months ago Trump agreed with an administration study that some imported vehicles and components are “weakening our internal economy” and could harm national security. He has threatened to tax them by as much as 25%. But he took no action on Nov. 14, the deadline established by the act to take action, puzzling automakers. Bolstering the contention by trade experts that the president’s hands are now tied is a new U.S. trade court ruling, published on Monday, that Trump previously exceeded the time limit on his Section 232 authority when he tried to double the tariff on steel imports from Turkey last year. Trump has hailed the threat of car tariffs as a strong negotiating tool to gain leverage over his opponents. But an initial trade deal with Japan reached in September did not address auto trade, while trade talks with the EU have not formally started as the two sides remain at odds over the scope of the negotiations. The 1962 act is clear about the time limits that a president has for invoking tariffs to protect U.S. national security.
The Trump administration’s immigration jails are packed, but deportations are lower than in Obama era WaPo - Bakhodir Madjitov, a 38-year-old Uzbek national and father of three U.S. citizens, is one of the approximately 50,000 people jailed on any given day in the past year under the authority of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the most foreigners held in immigration detention in U.S. history. The majority of those detainees, like Madjitov, are people with no criminal records. According to the latest snapshot of ICE’s prisoner population, from early November, nearly 70 percent of the inmates had no prior criminal conviction. More than 14,000 are people the U.S. government has determined have a reasonable fear of persecution or torture if deported. Though President Trump has made cracking down on immigration a centerpiece of his first term, his administration lags far behind President Barack Obama’s pace of deportations. Obama — who immigrant advocates at one point called the “deporter in chief” — removed 409,849 people in 2012 alone. Trump, who has vowed to deport “millions” of immigrants, has yet to surpass 260,000 deportations in a single year. And while Obama deported 1.18 million people during his first three years in office, Trump has deported fewer than 800,000. It is unclear why deportations have been happening relatively slowly. Eager to portray Trump as successful in his first year in office, ICE’s 2017 operational report compared “interior removals” — those arrested by ICE away from the border zones — during the first eight months of Trump’s term with the same eight-month period from the previous year, reporting a 37 percent increase from 44,512 to 61,094 people. But the agency also acknowledged that overall deportation numbers had slipped, attributing the decline to fewer border apprehensions and suggesting that an “increased deterrent effect from ICE’s stronger interior enforcement efforts” had caused the change. Administration officials this year have noted privately that Mexican nationals — who are easier to deport than Central Americans because of U.S. immigration laws — also made up a far greater proportion of the migrants apprehended along the U.S.-Mexico border during Obama’s presidency. ICE officials say that the detainee population has swelled — often cresting at 5,000 people more than ICE is budgeted to hold — as a direct result of the influxes of migrants along the southern border, and that when ICE is compelled to release people into the United States, it creates “an additional pull factor to draw more aliens to the U.S. and risk public safety,” said ICE spokesman Bryan Cox. Immigrant advocates say the packed jail cells result from an administration obsessed with employing harsh immigration tactics as a means of deterrence. They say the Trump administration is keeping people like Madjitov locked up when they previously would have been released pending the outcomes of their cases.
Did Obama Make a Mistake by Deporting 3 Million People? Bernie Sanders: ‘Yes’ -Asked at a presidential candidate forum in California Saturday night if the Obama administration made a mistake by deporting an estimated 3 million people during its 8-year tenure, 2020 hopeful Bernie Sanders offered a direct and one word response: "Yes."The forum, hosted by the Spanish-language channel Univision in the city of Long Beach amid the state Democratic Party's endorsing convention, had a large focus on immigration issues with many Latino voters in attendance.The question was asked by moderator Jorge Ramos and Sanders' succinct answer received rousing approval from many in the audience. Watch: After applause died down, Sanders pivoted by saying the American people are ready for an immigration policy that no longer has at its center the demonization of those coming to the United States seeking a better life. "What I'm going to tell you is in fact what the American people want, and they want to stop this ugly demonization of the immigrant community and the racism that is coming from the White House," said Sanders. "They want—it's not my idea, it's what the American people want—is, finally, comprehensive immigration reform and a path toward citizenship for 11 million undocumented." And, Sanders continued, "Here's a promise I will make—I don't make a lot of promises—but on day one, Jorge, I will undo the damage Trump did and, among other things, reestablish the legal status of the 1.1 million young people and their parents eligible for the DACA program." Immigration reform, said Sanders, is at the "very top" of his agenda and he vowed, if elected, to introduce a comprehensive package to address the situation not only in his first year in office, but within his first hundred days.
United States has the highest child detention rate in the world -- Reviewing the findings of a United Nations study of the conservatively estimated 7 million children worldwide currently deprived of liberty by being imprisoned or detained, author Manfred Nowak reported at a press conference Monday that the United States leads the world in the rate which it detains young people under the age of 18. Sixty out of every 100,000 children in the US are detained in either the criminal justice or immigration system. Countries that come close to the US rate include Bolivia, Botswana and Sri Lanka, while on the low end, Western Europe averages 5 child detentions per 100,000 and Canada detains children at a rate of 14–15 per 100,000. Nowak pointed to the Trump administration’s racist war on immigrants, which has seen children torn from their parents’ arms and thrown into cages, as a key driver of the particularly high US rate, with the United States accounting for nearly one third of the 330,000 children being held in immigrant detention camps by governments around the world.“The United States is one of the countries with the highest numbers—we still have more than 100,000 children in migration-related detention in the (US),” Nowak, a professor of international human rights, told reporters Monday. “Of course, separating children, as was done by the Trump administration, from their parents and even small children at the Mexican-US border is absolutely prohibited by the Convention on the Rights of the Child. I would call it inhuman treatment for both the parents and the children.”Notably, the US government is the only member of the UN that has not ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child, with successive Democratic and Republican administrations refusing to submit the treaty to the Senate for final approval since it was signed in 1995. The US was one of the countries that failed to return a survey for the latest study. “The way they were separating infants from families only in order to deter irregular migration from Central America to the United States to me constitutes inhuman treatment,” Nowak stated, noting that this also violated the UN Convention against Torture and the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, both of which have been ratified by the US. According to a recent investigation by the Associated Press and PBS’ “Frontline” program, nearly 70,000 infants, adolescents and teenagers were held in a US government detention center over the course of 2019, an increase of 42 percent over 2018.
Trump's Child Separation Policy "Absolutely" Violated International Law Says UN Expert- The Trump administration violated international law when it separated migrant children from their families, a United Nations expert said Monday. That's not all, said Manfred Nowak, the independent expert leading a global study on children deprived of liberty. With over 100,000 children still in migration-related detention, the United States leads the world with the highest number of children in migration-related custody in the world. Nowak made the remarks to press at the formal launch of the report, the U.N. Global Study on Children Deprived of Liberty, he said has the power to effect positive change. Referencing the Convention on the Rights of the Child, Nowak said that "the detention of children shall only be a measure of last resort and only if absolutely necessary for the shortest appropriate period of time. That means, in principle, children should not be deprived of liberty.""Alternatives to detention are usually available," said Nowak, "it's simply a question of politics." A lack of political will to make that policy change was clear, Nowak suggested, when the Trump administration instituted its so-called zero tolerance policy in which officials separated children from their parents at Southern border. "There's a lot of evidence...that migration-related detention for children can never be considered as a measure of last resort and in the best interest of the child," he said. "There are always alternatives available, and there a quite a number of states that have decided already that they will not put children any longer in migration-related detention." "Of course, separating children—as was done by the Trump administration—from their parents, even small children, at the Mexican-U.S. border is absolutely prohibited by the Convention on the Rights of the Child," Nowak continued. "I would call it inhuman treatment for both the parents and the children. And there are still quite a number of children that are separated from their parents—and neither the children know where their parents are and the parents [don't] know where the children are—so that is definitely something that definitely should not happen again."
Federal court strips citizenship from US-born woman held in Syrian detention camp - On Thursday, a federal court sided with the Trump administration in ruling that 25-year-old Hoda Muthana, who was born in New Jersey and is now being held in a detention camp in Syria, cannot return to the United States because she is not a US citizen. The ruling is a victory in the far-right campaign to undermine the Fourteenth Amendment. Ratified in 1866-1868, the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees automatic citizenship to every person born within the borders of the United States. A number of figures in the Trump administration, including Trump himself and his fascistic aide Stephen Miller, have publicly advocated the abolition of the right to birthright citizenship. The Muthana case was doubtless designed in part to test the level of judicial resistance to such proposals. Hoda Muthana’s father, Ahmed Ali Muthana, worked as a diplomat for Yemen from 1990 to 1994. She was born after he was fired from that position. When her family applied for her to have a US passport in 2004, the State Department initially questioned her citizenship status in light of her father’s diplomatic background, which would have constituted the single narrow exception to the general rule that all persons born in the US are automatically US citizens. When Muthana’s family applied for her passport, her father provided uncontroverted documentation that his diplomatic status had ended before she was born. Accordingly, on January 24, 2005, she was issued a passport listing her nationality as “United States of America.” This passport was renewed on February 21, 2014. While a student at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, Muthana apparently came under the influence of jihadist ideas she encountered online. She would later describe this experience as being “brainwashed.” In November 2014, without telling her family, Muthana ran away to Syria in an effort to link up with Islamic State jihadists. Her distraught father contacted the American authorities for help in trying to find her. Upon arriving in Syria, according to Muthana, she and other female sympathizers were forced to surrender their cell phones, confined to a locked barracks, and made available as potential brides for male jihadists. Shortly after arriving, she was married to Suhan Rahman, an Islamic State jihadist from Australia who went by the name Abu Jihad Al-Australi. After her first husband was killed a few months into the marriage, she was married to a Tunisian man, with whom she had a son. Her second husband was killed in 2017. When the military fortunes of the jihadists declined, her enclave was encircled and ran out of food. She eventually escaped and was detained by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces troops in January of this year. Muthana is currently being held with her son in a detention camp in Syria. When she indicated a desire to return to the US, the country of her birth, the Trump administration saw an opportunity. Trump immediately tweeted: “I have instructed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and he fully agrees, not to allow Hoda Muthana back into the Country!”
Worker who raised alarm before deadly New Orleans hotel collapse to be deported - The construction worker who was injured in and raised the alarm about a deadly hotel collapse in New Orleans last month is set to be deported, the man’s wife and lawyers said Friday. Border Patrol agents arrested Delmer Joel Ramirez Palma, a Honduran national, two days after the hotel collapse last month. He was later moved to an immigration holding facility at the Alexandria International Airport in central Louisiana, according to Nola.com. Attorneys advocating on Ramirez’s behalf say his deportation could hinder an ongoing conversation about the Oct. 12 hotel collapse that killed three people and injured several others. Ramirez spoke out about unsafe conditions at the site prior to the collapse. He was arrested while he was fishing after U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service agents asked him for his fishing license and pressed him for identification before summoning Border Patrol officers, according to Nola. Ramirez does not have legal authorization to work in the U.S. and was ordered to be deported in 2016. He fell several stories during the October collapse. “He talks about how this disaster could have been avoided if they had been paid more attention when they could see — clearly — that the building, in some areas, wasn’t right,” Tania Bueso, Ramirez’s wife, said. “When he used the laser (measurement tool), he also said he had to check two or three times to make sure the measurement was right because the building was so imbalanced.”
Dozens of civil rights groups call on Trump to fire Stephen Miller - More than 50 civil rights groups have signed a letter calling on President Trump to fire White House adviser Stephen Miller after emails obtained by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) revealed that Miller had promoted materials linked to white nationalism within conservative media circles prior to joining the Trump administration.In a letter to the White House, 59 groups led by The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights wrote that Miller "represents white supremacy, violent extremism, and hate — all ideologies that are antithetical to the fundamental values that guide our democracy.""Allowing him to remain a White House advisor is a betrayal of our national ideals of justice, inclusion, and fairness. We call on you to halt your own hateful actions and rhetoric and remove all hate enthusiasts from the administration," wrote the coalition of groups including the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) and Lambda Legal, a leading LGBT civil rights organization."Unless and until you fire Stephen Miller — and all who promulgate bigotry — and abandon your administration’s anti-civil rights agenda, you will continue to be responsible for the violence fueled by that hate," the letter continues, adding: "Stephen Miller’s racist, deadly agenda is contributing to this violence and must be stopped."The White House did not immediately return a request for comment on the letter Monday evening.White House deputy press secretary Hogan Gidley previously sought to defend Miller in a statement on Saturday, while the White House has sought to discredit the SPLC's reporting.
Stephen Miller is no outlier. White supremacy rules the Republican party - This week, the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) published a bombshell article revealing troubling emails that White House senior policy advisor Stephen Miller sent to editors at Breitbart News, the far-right media outlet previously led by Steve Bannon. The emails, which were leaked by former Breitbart editor Katie McHugh and predate Miller’s period in the White House, show Miller’s obsession with immigration and his seemingly successful attempts to get Breitbart editors to write anti-immigration stories, some of which were based on openly white nationalist sources like American Renaissance and V-Dare. The widespread public outrage in response to the revelations is understandable. Miller is the longest serving senior advisor to President Trump who is not related to the president, and is believed to be the architect of the White House’s draconian anti-immigration policies, which doesn’t just target “illegal immigration” but also aims to return to the country to the infamouslyracist immigration policy of the early 20th century. In its response to the leak, the White House tried to discredit the source, SPLC, which has had some internal and external problems recently, but is overall a very reliable authority on the US far right. One White House spokesperson went full “alternative facts” by accusing SPLC of antisemitism, because Miller is Jewish. By doing so, the White House displayed a complete lack of understanding about what antisemitism is, which is no surprise, given that Trump considers himself “the least antisemitic person you’ve ever seen”. But would Miller’s resignation change anything? While Miller might be behind the concrete policies that harm immigrants, he is not the main white supremacist in the White House. Miller wrote the emails to Breitbart when he was still an aide to Senator Jeff Sessions, who has been a consistent voice of white supremacy in Congress since 1997. And the Alabama Senator was not alone in Congress either. Representative Steve King has been the most open and unapologetic voice for the cause since 2003. Others, like representatives Louie Gohmert, Paul Gosar, Tom Tancredo and Dana Rohrabacher, might not be as open in their support, but they all encourage white nationalism to varying degrees. But white supremacy in the Republican party is not limited to just these individual congressmen and women. It runs much deeper than them. White supremacy was at the core of the “Southern Strategy”, dating back to the unsuccessful 1964 presidential campaign of Barry Goldwater, which was formative for the future conservative movement. Perfected by President Richard Nixon, with the help of speechwriter Pat Buchanan, dog whistles to white supremacy have been at the heart of virtually every Republican campaign since the 1970s.
Hospitals pledge to fight Trump admin price transparency plan in court -Hospitals were swift to condemn the Trump administration's plans to force secret negotiated rates with payers out into the open, vowing to challenge the policy in court. Insurers also rebuked the plan announced Friday that also puts the squeeze on payers to unveil prices.Experts told Healthcare Dive the government clearly foresaw a legal challenge from the industry, but questioned whether its authority is adequate to force hospitals and insurers to publicly disclose their rates. In a Friday afternoon press conference at the White House, President Donald Trump said patients have "been getting ripped off for years" and HHS Secretary Alex Azar called the requirements a "revolutionary" change for the industry. But the event also touched on the difficult road ahead. "This is going to be a fight. This is very disruptive," Under a new proposed rule, insurers would be required to make public the negotiated rates for in-network providers and out-of-network services as well as make real-time cost-sharing information easily available to members. A separate hospital payment final rule carries forward a previously announced plan to force hospitals to reveal negotiated rates. They will be required to share information about gross charges, payer-specific rates, minimum and maximum negotiated charges and the amount the hospital is willing to accept in cash from a patient. A quartet of hospital groups, including the American Hospital Association and Federation of American Hospitals, said in a statement they will be joining member hospitals to file a lawsuit charging that the price transparency rules exceed the administration's authority. "Instead of helping patients know their out-of-pocket costs, this rule will introduce widespread confusion, accelerate anticompetitive behavior among health insurers, and stymie innovations in value-based care delivery," they wrote. "America's hospitals and health systems have repeatedly urged CMS to work with hospitals, doctors, insurers, patients, and other stakeholders to identify solutions to provide patients with the information they need to make informed health care decisions and know what their expected out-of-pocket costs will be."
House committee approves landmark bill legalizing marijuana at the federal level -The House Judiciary Committee approved a bill Wednesday that legalizes marijuana on the federal level, removing it from Schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act. The legislation, which passed 24 to 10, has a high chance of approval in the full House where Democrats control the chamber with 234 seats. It’s likely to face a tougher battle in the Republican-controlled Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell opposes marijuana legalization.The legislation allows states to enact their own policies and gives them incentives to clear criminal records of people with low-level marijuana offenses. It also includes a 5% tax on cannabis products that would provide job training and legal assistance to those hit hardest by the war on drugs. According to the American Civil Liberties Union, marijuana arrests account for more than half of all drug arrests in the United States. U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday repeatedly cited the disproportionate impact drug laws have had on communities of color, saying that decriminalizing marijuana helps alleviate some of that imbalance.
Do 160 Million Americans Really Like Their Health Plans? Articulating his proposal for health care reform, former Vice President Joe Biden emphasized the number of Americans who, he said, were more than perfectly satisfied with the coverage they have.“One hundred sixty million people like their private insurance,” Biden said during the November Democratic presidential primary debate.That argument is at the heart of many moderate Democrats’ criticism of the “Medicare for All” proposal backed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). We decided to take a closer look. The figure appears to refer to the number of Americans who receive health benefits through work — so-called employer-sponsored health insurance. Under Medicare for All that would no longer be an option.On first blush, polling seems to suggest that most people with employer-sponsored coverage like it.Polling done earlier this year by the Kaiser Family Foundation with the Los Angeles Times found that most beneficiaries are “generally satisfied” with this insurance. (Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the foundation.) But that doesn’t get at the whole story. “Most like their policy, but not all,” said Robert Blendon, a health care pollster at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.The context matters. In the same KFF/L.A. Times poll, about 40% of people with employer-sponsored coverage said they had trouble paying medical bills, out-of-pocket costs or premiums. About half indicated going without or delaying health care because — even with this coverage — it was unaffordable. And about 17% reported making “difficult sacrifices” to pay for health care.Beneficiaries who have higher-deductible plans — that is, they are required to pay larger sums of out-of-pocket before health coverage kicks in — are also less likely to be happy with their coverage, and more likely to report problems paying for health care. And it’s also worth noting that these high-deductible plans have grownincreasingly common, even for the 160 million Americans who get insurance from work, though that trend may now be losing steam. Research from the Commonwealth Fund, meanwhile, notes that increasing numbers of “underinsured” people do, in fact, have employer-sponsored health insurance. Underinsured people are those who have coverage but delay care because they still can’t afford it.
Google’s Project Nightingale: The largest transfer to date of private medical data to the tech giant - Last week, the Wall Street Journal broke the news that Ascension Healthcare, the second-largest healthcare provider in the US, has partnered with Google in a venture called Project Nightingale to transfer personal health data on millions of patients to the giant technology company’s cloud-based platforms, the largest trove of such information to date. On the same day that the Journal broke the news, the two entities released a joint press statement confirming their relationship, which involves personal medical data from the entire spread of Ascension, a Catholic network of 2,600 hospitals, clinics, and other medical outlets, spanning 21 states involving more than 50 million medical records. Secret negotiations began a year ago, and thus far 10 million medical files have been uploaded with completion of the transfer scheduled for March 2020. Both companies have assured compliance with government regulatory processes. What has many critics concerned about the project is the secretive manner in which the negotiations had been conducted and the unprecedented nature of the size and type of information being shared. At no time did Ascension or Google attempt to inform the doctors or their patients or obtain their consent. Data sharing between healthcare and technology companies has typically occurred with de-identified data or, in other words, data stripped of all identifying information such that it can’t be traced back to the individual in question. However, in this case the records being transferred include the names of patients, personal data such as addresses, employer, and medical record numbers. These are tied to their health history, which can include data like their medication list, physiological characteristics, genetic tests, their sexual and psychological reports, and other studies such as various imaging and special procedures such as echocardiograms or colonoscopies, and sundry blood tests. Google will have access to sensitive surgical reports and detailed pathology review of tissues. Accidental breach of the data or intentional covert sharing of the most intimate and private information can have devastating impact on the lives of millions of people. For the past two decades Google has been facing accusations of repeated privacy violation to include a recent settlement that requires Google and YouTube to pay $136 million to the Federal Trade Commission and $34 million to the State of New York for allegedly violating Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act Rule by targeting advertisement on their children channels. Google has also been cited for collaborating on patient data transfers with the Royal Free National Health Service Foundation Trust in the UK, DeepMind Technologies (acquired by Google in 2014), and the University of Chicago Medical Center at the University of Chicago where data was not properly de-identified. Google has also allied with the military, providing them with artificial intelligence software that provides the US military and intelligence community the ability to prosecute their endless wars in the Middle East. The intimate relationship that exists between the giant technology company and the state should give serious concerns about the potential for how this data could be used against the working class. The National Security Agency has been collecting records of phone calls and text messages of millions of Americans. It is certainly conceivable that with Google’s ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) development these formidable tools will even further enhance the state’s repressive capacity.
Wall Street Journal investigation confirms Google operates censorship blacklist - An investigation by the Wall Street Journal has confirmed many of the central allegations made by the World Socialist Web Site in 2017 regarding Google’s censorship of the internet. In an extensive article published Friday, the Journal concludes that, contrary to Google’s repeated assertions, the company maintains blacklists of individual websites and intervenes directly to manipulate individual search results. On July 27, 2017, the World Socialist Web Site reported that changes to Google’s search algorithm, internally dubbed “Project Owl,” had drastically reduced search traffic to left-wing, antiwar and progressive websites. The WSWS based its assertions on Google’s public declarations that it was seeking to “surface more authoritative content” and demote “alternative viewpoint[s],” as well as detailed data from the WSWS’s analytics systems and data provided by other websites and publicly available web and search traffic estimators. Based on these data points, the WSWS concluded that Google was operating a blacklist of opposition news outlets, the primary impact of which was to restrict access to left-wing and antiwar websites. The WSWS was a central target of this initiative. As we explained: “Google has severed links between the World Socialist Web Site and the 45 most popular search terms that previously directed readers to the WSWS. The physical censorship implemented by Google is so extensive that of the top 150 search terms that, as late as April 2017, connected the WSWS with readers, 145 no longer do so.” On August 25, 2017, David North, the chairperson of the WSWS International Editorial Board, published an open letter to Google asserting: Censorship on this scale is political blacklisting. The obvious intent of Google’s censorship algorithm is to block news that your company does not want reported and to suppress opinions with which you do not agree. Political blacklisting is not a legitimate exercise of whatever may be Google’s prerogatives as a commercial enterprise. It is a gross abuse of monopolistic power. What you are doing is an attack on freedom of speech. These assertions have been dramatically confirmed by the Wall Street Journal investigation. Its report concludes: Despite publicly denying doing so, Google keeps blacklists to remove certain sites or prevent others from surfacing in certain types of results. These moves are separate from those that block sites as required by US or foreign law, such as those featuring child abuse or with copyright infringement, and from changes designed to demote spam sites, which attempt to game the system to appear higher in results.
‘Destroyer of Newspapers’ Vulture Fund Buys Majority Stake at Tribune Publishing -Journalists sounded the alarm Wednesday after Tribune Publishing’s largest shareholder sold his stake in the company to a hedge fund that’s been described as “a destroyer of newspapers.”In a joint statement, the newspaper unions of Tribune Publishing—representing workers at papers including the Chicago Tribune and Baltimore Sun—said that the news of Alden Global Capital purchasing Michael Ferro’s 25.2% stake in the company should not be seen as “simply another change in stock ownership” because “Alden is not a company that invests in newspapers so they succeed.”“They buy into newspaper businesses with the express purpose of harvesting out huge profits—well above industry standards—and slashing staff and burning resources,” the statement read.“We know we are faced with the very real threat that Alden is looking to bleed its next chain of newspapers dry,” it continued.In a 2018 column, Bloomberg‘s Joe Nocera wrote that Alden was a “notorious as a destroyer of newspapers,” and that, under the direction of President Heath Freeman, the company carries out “layoffs [that] aren’t just painful. They are savage.”Chicago Tribune Guild member Gregory Pratt commented on Alden’s history of slashing newsrooms, writing in a tweet that “Even in an industry flooded with bad owners, this is awful news. Alden gutted the Denver Post, among many other papers.”Former Tribune reporter Mark Caro wrote in a tweet that “The Tribune parent company keeps going from one piece-of-garbage owner to another.” News industry analyst Ken Doctor wrote Wednesday of Ferro: To his would-be peers in the industry, frequent targets of his disdain, he’s departing appropriately enough, with a signature fuck-you. Who better to sell his Tribune stake—the one his group of Chicago investors had bought at bargain-basement prices, and which, ridiculously, gave him effective control of Tribune—to than the only man in the industry more reviled: Freeman, whose Alden has become the face of bloodless strip-mining of American newspapers and their communities.” “If you subscribe to Capital Gazette or any of the other Tribune papers, let me introduce you to the vultures your money will now benefit,” tweeted reporter Danielle Ohl, who shared a link to a 2018 NiemanLab article in which Doctor mused that “Alden Global Capital is making so much money wrecking local journalism it might not want to stop anytime soon.”
Billionaires Are Panicking Over the Growing Popularity of a Wealth Tax – Alexis Goldstein - The billionaires are mad. They’re issuing expletive-filled quotes to reporters and scaremongering about market crashes because they don’t like what they see in the presidential primary. These ultra-wealthy men are used to being heard when they so very loudly complain. But they’re now facing a presidential primary where one of the items up for debate is just how much we should tax their wealth. Instead of a public viewing them as model citizens to emulate, they’re being mocked. Behind their bluster and anger, the panic of these billionaires is beginning to show. In October, billionaire hedge fund managers Paul Tudor Jones and Leon Cooperman both warned of a 25 percent drop in the stock market should Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders be elected. Cooperman cried on CNBC about the “vilification” of billionaires, was thoroughly roasted by “The Daily Show” for it, and has now ended up in a campaign ad for Warren. In response to reporting about the ad, Cooperman ranted to CNBC reporter Brian Schwartz, “She doesn’t know who the f— she’s tweeting. I gave away more in the year than she has in her whole f—-ing lifetime.” Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who also ended up in Warren’s ad, took to Twitter to complain about it complete with a racist joke, and got promptly ratioed. The charitableness that billionaires like Cooperman enjoy touting ends abruptly when the idea of a wealth tax is introduced. They are very proud of their own philanthropy — which they choose and which benefits them with good will and good press. But the idea that they’d give 2 percent, 6 percent or 8 percent of their wealth through a democratic process — where elected representatives of our government vote on how to allocate resources — is “called Venezuela,” according to Michael Bloomberg, or a disincentive to form companies, according to Bill Gates. Facebook CEO and billionaire Mark Zuckerberg told a town hall that his philanthropy funded research the government doesn’t, and “the alternative would be the government chooses all of the funding for all of the stuff.” Someone should tell Zuckerberg that this is a feature, not a bug, of democracy.
Analyses claiming that taxes on millionaires and billionaires will slow economic growth are fundamentally flawed - EPI Blog by Josh Bivens - In recent weeks, a number of policy analyses of progressive economic policies—a surtax on high-incomes, awealth tax, and Social Security expansion—have claimed these policies would damage economic growth. Policymakers should give these analyses very little weight in debates about these issues, for a number of reasons. First, and most important, is the fact that all of these analyses are grounded in an economic view of the world that sees growth as constrained by the economy’s productive capacity (or the supply side of the economy) and not by the spending of households, businesses and government (the economy’s demand side). These estimates have other problems too—they are not even particularly convincing supply-side estimates and even if the economy’s growth really was constrained by supply, these estimates would still be misleading about the effects of these policies on welfare. But the biggest reason why policymakers should give these analyses zero weight is because they assume that growth is almost never demand-constrained. The assumption that supply constraints are much more likely to bind overall growth than demand constraints drove almost all macroeconomic policymaking in the decades before the Great Recession. For example, the Federal Reserve for decades feared lower unemployment far more than lower inflation. Lower unemployment was a signal that demand was rising relative to supply, and if one thinks growth was generally supply-constrained, this meant that demand growth would quickly outstrip supply growth and lead to rising inflation. Lower inflation, conversely, meant that supply growth was outpacing demand growth—but that was always a temporary and easy-to-fix condition. The decades-long bipartisan overreaction to rising federal budget deficits is also a byproduct of assuming the economy’s growth is supply constrained. The experience of the last decade has done much to shake this belief that demand-constrained growth is nothing to worry about and that supply-constrained growth should be the default presumption for policy analysis. For example, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to spur demand growth three times in the past six months with unemployment below 3.8 percent. They certainly seem to be acting (correctly) as if demand-constrained growth is a real problem. Prominent macroeconomists and former policymakers likeOlivier Blanchard, Jason Furman, and Lawrence Summers have all written in recent months that efforts to close budget deficits should not be a high policy priority, largely because there is no evidence that supply constraints are binding. These reversals of policy presumption are evidence-based and admirable. Yet the decades-long inertia of policy evaluation done in a framework of supply-constrained growth is hard to stop—and so we have the recent parade of analyses claiming that a number of progressive initiatives will slow the economy by dragging on supply side growth.
Boomers Win Again: Old Americans To Inherit "Unprecedented Amount That Is Incomprehensably Large" - When it comes to the generational conflict at the heart of America's inequality split, there is no contest: the elderly - those between the ages of 65 and 75 who own the bulk of financial assets - have over 13 times as much wealth as America's Millennials (see chart below), young people between 25 and 35, who may not be rich, but have come up with a biting, witty response to their much richer elders: "Ok, Boomer."Unfortunately for America's youth, who may have been hoping to get rich quick when they inherit the wealth of their aging parents, we have some very bad news.While it is true that an unprecedented $36 trillion - roughly a third of total US household wealth - will flow from one US generation to another over the next 30 years with the pace of bequests already surging as Americans inherited $427 billion in 2016, up 119% from 1989, it's not the Millennials who stand to benefit. Instead, the beneficiaries of this inheritance tsunami are quite old themselves; according to the the study, from 1989 to 2016 U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. Fast forward a few more years, and now, more than a quarter of bequests now go to adults 61 or older.In other words, America's again rich are about to get even richer as their parents pass away.“Wealth equal to nearly two times the size of the U.S. GDP is expected to be gifted to charities and heirs over the next few decades,” said United Income founder Matt Fellowes. "It’s a historically unprecedented amount that is almost incomprehensibly large." However, "instead of diapers and school, inheritances are increasingly going toward medical bills and retirement savings,” Fellowes said. The irony is that in addition to virtually every other aspect of US life, one can now add inheritances to the dynamic that’s widening the wealth gap between generations.
Advancing Propaganda For Evil Agendas Is The Same As Perpetrating Them Yourself - Caitlin Johnstone -The Guardian has published an editorial titled “The Guardian view on extraditing Julian Assange: don’t do it”, subtitled “The US case against the WikiLeaks founder is an assault on press freedom and the public’s right to know”. The publication’s editorial board argues that since the Swedish investigation has once again been dropped, the time is now to oppose US extradition for the WikiLeaks founder. “Sweden’s decision to drop an investigation into a rape allegation against Julian Assange has both illuminated the situation of the WikiLeaks founder and made it more pressing,” the editorial board writes.Oh okay, now the issue is illuminated and pressing. Not two months ago, when Assange’s ridiculous bail sentence ended and he was still kept in prison explicitly and exclusively because of the US extradition request. Not six months ago, when the US government slammed Assange with 17 charges under the Espionage Act for publishing the Chelsea Manning leaks. Not seven months ago, when Assange was forcibly pried from the Ecuadorian embassy and slapped with the US extradition request. Not any time between his April arrest and his taking political asylum seven years ago, which the Ecuadorian government explicitly granted him because it believed there was a credible threat of US extradition. Not nine years ago when WikiLeaks was warning that the US government was scheming to extradite Assange and prosecute him under the Espionage Act.Nope, no, any of those times would have been far too early for The Guardian to begin opposing US extradition for Assange with any degree of lucidity. They had to wait until Assange was already locked up in Belmarsh Prison and limping into extradition hearings supervised by looming US government officials. They had to wait until years and years of virulent mass media smear campaigns had killed off public support for Assange so he could be extradited with little or no grassroots backlash. And they had to wait until they themselves had finished participating in those smear campaigns.
Newly uncovered tax documents show Trump kept ‘2 sets of books’ and may have committed financial fraud - Newly uncovered tax documents from President Donald Trumpcontain several discrepancies that real-estate experts said could point to financial fraud, ProPublica reported on Wednesday.The documents obtained by ProPublica were part of records for four Trump properties in New York City: Trump International Hotel and Tower, 40 Wall Street, Trump Tower, and 1290 Avenue of the Americas.Tax records for 40 Wall Street and the Trump International Hotel and Tower reportedly contained discrepancies that could raise some red flags — specifically, the numbers made the properties look more valuable to lenders and less valuable to tax authorities, ProPublica said.In one instance in 2017, according to ProPublica, Trump told a lender that he got twice as much rent from one building as he reported to tax authorities that year.Nancy Wallace, a professor of finance and real estate at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley, told the outlet she couldn't see why there were inconsistencies in the first place, adding that they looked like "versions of fraud."Trump has been at the center of several financial scandals. The New York Times reported last year that Trump used a series of dubious tax schemes to shield a $400 million inheritance from the IRS.And in September, Mother Jones published an investigation that found that Trump might have fabricated a loan to avoid paying $50 million in income taxes.But Trump has long maintained that he has committed no financial or tax crimes. He h as said he can't release his tax returns because they are under audit, even though there is no rule to prevent him from doing so. But the president may soon be forced to give his tax returns to investigators. On October 7, US District Judge Victor Marrer oordered Trump to turn over eight years of his tax returns to New York prosecutors investigating whether he violated state laws by fabricating business records. Days later, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbiaordered the president to turn over the past eight years of his tax returns to the House Oversight Committee, saying lawmakers have the right to see the documents. Trump's lawyers have said they will fight both decisions and take them to the Supreme Court if they have to.
Trump tax returns: Supreme Court temporarily blocks release of financial documents -- The Supreme Court has temporarily stopped a lower court order requiring Donald Trump to turn over his tax returns to House Democrats as a part of their impeachment probe, giving the high court time to decide whether to hear the president's challenge to the ruling. The decision was announced on Monday, with chief justice John G Roberts writing that they had granted the Trump administration's request for a stay on the federal appeals court ruling until "further order". Before this ruling, the president's longtime accounting firm Mazars USA had been compelled by the US appeals court in Washington to hand over Mr Trump's financial records, following a subpoena from house Democrats. Mr Trump has asked the court to protect his financial records from House investigators as well as the Manhattan district attorney's office in New York, which is conducting a separate investigation into issues related to the president. Both sides now must file the necessary paperwork with the Supreme Court, so that the justices can decide whether to take up the case. The case has been interpreted as a test to see how successful Mr Trump may be in resisting subpoenas issued by House Democrats as a part of their impeachment probe, which is entering its second week of public hearings this week.
The Brennan Dossier: All About a Prime Mover of Russiagate - In the waning days of the Obama administration, the U.S. intelligence community produced a report saying Russian President Vladimir Putin had tried to swing the 2016 election to Donald Trump. The January 2017 report, called an Intelligence Community Assessment, followed months of leaks to the media that had falsely suggested illicit ties between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin while also revealing that such contacts were the subject of a federal investigation. Its release cast a pall of suspicion over Trump just days before he took office, setting the tone for the unfounded allegations of conspiracy and treason that have engulfed his first term. The ICA's blockbuster finding was presented to the public as the consensus view of the nation's intelligence community. As events have unfolded, however, it now seems apparent that the report was largely the work of one agency, the CIA, and overseen by one man, then-Director John Brennan, who closely directed its drafting and publication with a small group of hand-picked analysts. Nearly three years later, as the public awaits answers from two Justice Department inquiries into the Trump-Russia probe’s origins, and as impeachment hearings catalyzed by a Brennan-hired anti-Trump CIA analyst unfold in Congress, it is clear that Brennan’s role in propagating the collusion narrative went far beyond his work on the ICA. A close review of facts that have slowly come to light reveals that he was a central architect and promoter of the conspiracy theory from its inception. The record shows that:
- Contrary to a general impression that the FBI launched the Trump-Russia conspiracy probe, Brennan pushed it to the bureau – breaking with CIA tradition by intruding into domestic politics: the 2016 presidential election. He also supplied suggestive but ultimately false information to counterintelligence investigators and other U.S. officials.
- Leveraging his close proximity to President Obama, Brennan sounded the alarm about alleged Russian interference to the White House, and was tasked with managing the U.S. intelligence community's response.
- While some FBI officials expressed skepticism about the Trump/Russia narrative as they hunted down investigative leads, Brennan stood out for insisting on its veracity.
- To substantiate his claims, Brennan relied on a Kremlin informant who was later found to be a mid-level official with limited access to Putin’s inner circle.
- Circumventing normal protocol for congressional briefings, Brennan supplied then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid with incendiary Trump-Russia innuendo that Reid amplified in a pair of public letters late in the election campaign.
- After Trump's unexpected victory, Brennan oversaw the hasty production of the tenuous Intelligence Community Assessment.
- Departing from his predecessors’ usual practice of staying above the political fray after leaving office, Brennan has worked as a prominent analyst for MSNBC, where he has used his authority as a former guardian of the nation’s top secrets to launch vitriolic attacks on a sitting president, accusing Trump of "treasonous" conduct.
House Impeachment Investigators Probing Whether Trump Lied to Mueller -The House of Representatives is reportedly investigating whether President Donald Trump lied to former Special Counsel Robert Mueller in written testimony during the Russia probe. According to CNN, House attorney Douglas Letter told a federal appeals court Monday that House impeachment investigators are examining whether the president lied about his conversations with longtime confidant Roger Stone about WikiLeaks. "Did the president lie? Was the president not truthful in his responses to the Mueller investigation?" Letter asked the court. "The House is trying to determine whether the current president should remain in office. This is unbelievably serious and it's happening right now, very fast." Letter's remarks came during a hearing on the House effort to obtain grand jury material Mueller compiled in his investigation. House lawyers argued the materials could help lawmakers determine whether Trump lied to the former special counsel. As CNN reported: The House's arguments Monday draw new focus to whether Trump had lied to Mueller following public revelations at Roger Stone's trial [for lying to Congress] this month. Former Trump deputy campaign chairman Rick Gates testified that Trump and Stone talked about information that was coming that could help the campaign in mid-2016, at a time when Stone was attempting to get secret details about stolen Democratic documents WikiLeaks had. Gates' account appeared to contradict Trump's written responses to Mueller last November.
How a CIA analyst, alarmed by Trump’s shadow foreign policy, triggered an impeachment inquiry - WaPo - The lights are often on late into the evening at CIA headquarters, where a team of elite analysts works on classified reports that influence how the country responds to global crises. In early August, one of those analysts was staying after hours on a project with even higher stakes. For two weeks, he pored over notes of alarming conversations with White House officials, reviewed details from interagency memos on the U.S. relationship with Ukraine and scanned public statements by President Trump. He wove this material into a nine-page memo outlining evidence that Trump had abused the powers of his office to try to coerce Ukraine into helping him get reelected. Then, on Aug. 12, the analyst hit “send.” His decision to report what he had learned to the U.S. intelligence community’s inspector general has transformed the political landscape of the United States, triggering a rapidly moving impeachment inquiry that now imperils Trump’s presidency. Over the past three months, the allegations made in that document have been overwhelmingly substantiated — by the sworn testimony of administration officials, the inadvertent admissions of Trump’s acting chief of staff and, most important, the president’s own words, as captured on a record of his July 25 call with the leader of Ukraine. As the impeachment inquiry entered a new phase of public hearings on Wednesday, the outlines of the case have been thoroughly established: the president, his personal lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani and two diplomats are alleged to have collaborated to pressure Ukraine to pursue investigations to bolster Trump’s conspiracy theories about the 2016 election and damage the prospects of a potential opponent in next year’s election, former vice president Joe Biden.
Democrats Flipped From "Quid Pro Quo" To "Bribery" Because A 'Focus Group' Told Them To - Chris Wallace passed along the info to Fox viewers this morning... Chris Wallace on “how political” impeachment is: House Dems changed messaging after focus grouphttps://t.co/6fnpkZ5E4w pic.twitter.com/NsbU3hhHsj — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 15, 2019 ...and WaPo reported on it last night: Several Democrats have stopped using the term “quid pro quo,” instead describing “bribery” as a more direct summation of Trump’s alleged conduct. The shift came after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee conducted focus groups in key House battlegrounds in recent weeks, testing messages related to impeachment. Among the questions put to participants was whether “quid pro quo,” “extortion” or “bribery” was a more compelling description of Trump’s conduct. According to two people familiar with the results, which circulated among Democrats this week, the focus groups found “bribery” to be most damning. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity because the results have not been made public. Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a House Intelligence Committee member, kicked off the effort to retire “quid pro quo” from the Democratic vocabulary during a Sunday appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” where he said “it’s probably best not to use Latin words” to explain Trump’s actions.
Pelosi doubles down on anti-Russia politics of impeachment inquiry - Interviewed on the “Face the Nation” television program Sunday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reiterated the right-wing basis on which the Democrats are conducting their impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump. Speaking on the eve of the second week of public hearings before the House Intelligence Committee, Pelosi once again defined as the sole issue in the Democrats’ case for impeachment the charge that Trump endangered US “national security” and strengthened Russia by withholding military aid from the right-wing nationalist government in Ukraine. The claim is that Trump engaged in either “bribery” or abuse of power by subordinating support for the regime the US helped install in a fascist-led putsch in 2014 to his personal political interests. At the center of the impeachment drive is a July 25 telephone call in which Trump sought to shake down Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by indicating that $391 million in frozen military aid would be released only if his government announced a corruption investigation into Democratic presidential aspirant and former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter. The latter secured a lucrative position on the board of a large Ukrainian natural gas company during the period when his father was the point man for the Obama administration’s Ukraine policy. The dominant factions of the US intelligence, military and foreign policy establishment consider the Ukrainian regime, which is locked in a war against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, a “front-line” state in the drive to isolate Russia and remove it as an obstacle to US hegemony in the Middle East and Eurasia. They are the driving force behind the Democrats’ effort to either remove Trump from power or force him to adopt a more aggressive policy against Russia. In the interview, Pelosi said Trump’s posture toward Ukraine “undermines our national security.” Asked to assess the first week of public hearings, in which three currently serving State Department officials attacked Russia as a lawless and aggressive state and denounced the Trump administration’s maneuvers with Kiev, Pelosi said, “I think patriotism has had a good week.” Repeating the recurring charge that in considering Trump’s actions, “All roads lead to Putin,” she said: “Whether it’s giving them a stronger foothold in the Middle East by what [Trump] did with Turkey and Syria. Well, by what [he] did by withholding a grant—withholding aid to military assistance voted by Congress to Ukraine to the benefit of Putin… And with his disparaging remarks about NATO and questioning our commitment to NATO. That’s to Putin’s advantage.” But even as she all but called Trump a traitor and Russian agent, she reiterated the Democrats’ readiness to collaborate with the White House in implementing a right-wing, anti-working class domestic agenda.
Top NSC Official Told Secret Impeachment Panel Nothing Improper Transpired During Trump-Zelensky Call - A former top national security adviser to President Trump told a secret impeachment panel that he believed nothing improper occurred during a July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky, according to a transcript released over the weekend. NSC official Tim Morrison, who was on that phone call, expressed this narrative-killing opinion to the Democratic-led House Intelligence Committee last month - which would have undermined recent public testimony by several US officials who said that President Trump abused his office when he asked Zelensky to investigate former VP Joe Biden and matters related to the 2016 US election.That said, Morrison also testified that US Ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, was involved in an effort to encourage Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden - though he could not say whether Trump was involved in those efforts.He was uncertain of Trump’s involvement in Sondland’s efforts. “I’m still not completely certain that this was coming from the President,” Morrison testified to House Democrats. “I’m only getting this from Ambassador Sondland.” During a closed-door deposition as part of the House impeachment inquiry, Morrison was asked, “In your view, there was nothing improper that occurred during the call?”“Correct,” he answered as he was testifying under oath. -Epoch TimesMorrison replaced former NSC official Fiona Hill, who resigned from her position on July 19, days before the infamous Trump-Zelensky call. He says that the word "Burisma" never came up during that call, referring to the Ukrainian natural gas company w hich employed Hunter Biden on its board while Joe Biden used his position as Vice President to have a prosecutor fired who was investigating the company.
Impeachment hearings don’t move needle with Senate GOP - Senate Republicans say the first week of House impeachment hearings hasn't moved the needle in their conference and question whether the proceedings consuming Washington have much traction outside the Beltway. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is up for reelection next year in what is increasingly becoming a battleground state, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a moderate swing vote in the upper chamber, for example, say their constituents aren’t even closely following the impeachment proceedings. Although it is becoming increasingly clear that President Trump attempted to use military aid to pressure Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, the bottom line for Republicans is that it doesn’t reach the threshold to remove President Trump from office. “I just don’t think that a lot of my constituents are paying that much attention to it because they’ve got lives to lead and other important things to do,” Cornyn said. “I think Washington being a hotbed of politics everybody here is obsessed with it but I don’t think the rest of the country is obsessed with it,” he added. While the witnesses — all career government officials — have offered credible, detailed testimony, the hearings have made for less than gripping television, especially as the chairman and ranking Republican worked their way down the committee dais to give all of their colleagues a chance to ask questions in a process that took hours. The testimony has provided some new revelations, such as acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor’s recounting a phone call between President Trump and Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland in which Trump was overheard asking about investigations. But many of the main points of the rest of the testimony have already been reported in the press and digested by GOP lawmakers. “Alaskans are not paying much attention to the House impeachment drama,” Murkowski said.
Pressure Mounts Against Trump as 8 New Witnesses Prepare to Testify – Alexis Goldstein - Eight witnesses will testify publicly this week before the House Intelligence Committee. The most scrutiny will likely be around EU ambassador and Trump donor Gordon Sondland, who will appear on Wednesday. Sondland had to revise his initial statements to Congress with a supplemental declaration because they conflicted with those of acting Ukraine Ambassador William Taylor. But in this supplemental, Sondland maintained he did not know “when, why, or by whom the aid” to Ukraine was suspended. But last Wednesday, Taylor testified that a member of his staff overheard Sondland talking on his cellphone to Trump during a meeting at a restaurant in Kiev. Media reports over the weekend also allege there were multiple witnesses to Sondland’s call with Trump, restaurant staff among them. And Sondland’s claim alsocontradicts the testimony of National Security Council adviser Tim Morrison, who said that Sondland was clear with him that “the President was giving him instruction.” Morrison will testify publicly this Tuesday, a day before Sondland, which, combined with Taylor’s testimony and the media reporting, will make it even more difficult for Sondland to maintain he didn’t know that Trump insisted the aid be withheld. The week is set to end with public testimony from former National Security Council staffer Fiona Hill. Her earlier testimony led to many questions about what was known by former National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has been subpoenaed but has refused to comply. Hill worked for and had extensive contact with Bolton, and it was during her October 14 deposition that she said Bolton told her to tell White House Counsel John Eisenberg that Bolton was “not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up.” Democrats will likely use her hearing to dig into this “drug deal” during a public hearing that is sure to generate headlines, as well as attempt to get some of what Bolton knew on the record to either compel his testimony, or make it unnecessary.
Couldn't believe what I was hearing': White House aides testify in impeachment probe - (Reuters) - Senior U.S. officials told impeachment investigators in Congress on Tuesday they were concerned by President Donald Trump’s effort to get Ukraine to investigate a political rival, with one White House official calling it a “shock.” The third day of impeachment hearings conducted by the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee marked the first time that officials from inside the White House publicly expressed their misgivings about a freewheeling pressure campaign that now threatens Trump’s presidency. The White House’s top Ukraine expert, wearing his Army dress uniform, said Trump had made an “improper” demand of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a July 25 phone call that has become the centerpiece of the Democratic-led impeachment probe of the Republican president. “Frankly, I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. It was probably an element of shock that maybe, in certain regards, my worst fear of how our Ukrainian policy could play out was playing out,” Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman said. As he was testifying, the White House's official Twitter account here attacked his judgment - undermining the same man the administration appointed to lead its European affairs brief at the National Security Council.
The key takeaways from Holmes and Hale’s impeachment inquiry testimonies – President Donald Trump only cares about the "big stuff that matters to him, like this Biden investigation that Giuliani is pushing," State Department official David Holmes told lawmakers in a closed-door deposition as part of the impeachment inquiry. That revelation came as Holmes was relaying a conversation he testified he had with European Union Ambassador Gordon Sondland on July 26 at a restaurant in Ukraine's capital. The exchange is one of many found in a new release of transcripts from the House Intelligence Committee undertaking an impeachment inquiry into Trump. The committee released transcripts of Holmes' deposition as well as that of Ambassador David Hale, under secretary of state for political affairs. The two transcripts were released prior to the deposition of nine officials slated to publicly testify this week, including Hale on Wednesday with Sondland and Defense official Laura Cooper. Holmes is scheduled to testify on Thursday along with State Department official Fiona Hill. Here are the key takeaways from both the transcripts:
Ex-Envoy to Testify He Didn’t Know Ukraine Aid Was Tied to Investigations - NYT — Kurt D. Volker, the former special envoy to Ukraine, plans to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that he was out of the loop at key moments during President Trump’s pressure campaign on Ukraine to turn up damaging information about Democrats, according to an account of his prepared testimony. As the House Intelligence Committee opens its second week of public impeachment hearings, Mr. Volker will say that he did not realize that others working for Mr. Trump were tying American security aid to a commitment to investigate Democrats. His testimony, summarized by a person informed about it who insisted on anonymity to describe it in advance, will seek to reconcile his previous closed-door description of events with conflicting versions offered subsequently by other witnesses. Mr. Volker will be one of four witnesses appearing before the committee on Tuesday as it ramps up its investigation into the president’s effort to extract domestic political help from a foreign power while holding up $391 million in American security aid. The committee, which already had eight witnesses set for this week, added a ninth on Monday by calling David Holmes, a senior American Embassy official in Ukraine who overheard a conversation in which Mr. Trump asked about whether Ukraine was going to agree to carry out the investigations he wanted. Mr. Trump, who remained out of public sight on Monday for the third straight day, wrote on Twitter that he would “strongly consider” testifying in the impeachment inquiry, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised the idea during a weekend television interview.“Even though I did nothing wrong, and don’t like giving credibility to this No Due Process Hoax, I like the idea & will, in order to get Congress focused again, strongly consider it!” Mr. Trump wrote.
The Bad Arguments That Trump Didn’t Commit Bribery - LawFare. --Last month, we and another colleague at Protect Democracy argued that the meaning of “bribery” as the term is used in the Constitution goes beyond the criminal offense of bribery as defined in the U.S. Code. Because the Constitution predated the federal criminal code, the meaning of “bribery” referenced in the Impeachment Clause cannot be found in the statutory prohibition on bribery; therefore, some modern constraints that Congress and courts have placed on that criminal offense are not relevant to the constitutional inquiry. The evidence of President Trump’s conduct available at the time we wrote—primarily the summary transcript of Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—indicated that Trump’s conduct certainly fell within the scope of bribery for purposes of the Impeachment Clause. In particular, Trump solicited a bribe (help for his own campaign by opening an investigation into his political rival) in connection with his performance of official acts (releasing military aid for Ukraine and scheduling a White House meeting with President Zelensky). Since then, that argument has been echoed and expanded upon in a number ofoutlets. And new facts have emerged to make the case that Trump engaged in impeachable bribery even clearer. To cite just one, Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s private attorney, tweeted that the entire effort to get Ukraine to investigate the Bidens was done for Trump’s personal benefit. It’s therefore not surprising that Trump’s defenders are now trying to rebut the powerful case that Trump committed impeachable bribery. This weekend, the Wall Street Journal editorial board argued that Trump’s conduct does not fit within the scope of constitutional bribery, making the case that because the investigation into the Bidens and Crowdstrike that Trump solicited wasn’t ever announced by Ukraine, the bribery was never consummated and therefore doesn’t actually qualify as bribery. This claim is contradicted by a wide range of authoritative legal sources—and, were it correct, would lead to absurd consequences.
Impeachment By Secret Ballot Is A Terrible Idea - Impeachment mania took Washington by storm this week. Of all the frenzied commentary it unleashed, among the most dubious was a modest proposal to allow the Senate to vote to remove President Trump by secret ballot. (A House vote to impeach Trump seems like a foregone conclusion.) Juleanna Glover, who has advised George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Jeb Bush, suggested this in Politico earlier this week and the idea spread like wildfire on Resistance Twitter. “A secret impeachment ballot might sound crazy, but it’s actually quite possible,” Glover writes. “In fact, it would take only three senators to allow for that possibility.” The animating idea is that the only thing stopping Republicans from turning on Trump and convicting him in a Senate trial is fear of the GOP base. A senior Republican Senate staffer told The Atlantic‘s McKay Coppins, “If it was just a matter of magically snapping their fingers … pretty much every Republican senator would switch out [Vice President Mike] Pence for Trump. That’s been true since day one.” A secret ballot would allow them to snap their fingers. Even if no constitutional questions could be raised about this practice, it’s a bad and ultimately self-defeating idea. The secret ballot doesn’t abolish math. Two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote to remove Trump and Republicans have a 53-47 majority. A minimum of 20 Republicans would still have had to vote for Trump’s conviction. What if fewer than two-thirds of the Senate is willing to admit publicly that they voted to convict Trump and he was removed anyway? It’s not hard to predict the conspiracy theories about a “rigged” vote that could ensue and what the lack of transparency surrounding the first ever removal of a sitting president (Richard Nixon resigned on his own) would do to the legitimacy of the entire impeachment process.
The surprising revelation of Trump’s impeachment hearings - When the impeachment hearings opened in Washington last week, two questions were uppermost in most minds: how convincing would the evidence against Donald Trump turn out to be and would it reach the bar set for impeachment? Almost as soon as the first witnesses began their testimony, however, another, rather different, question sprang out: what on earth has the United States been doing in Ukraine? The witnesses on the first day were George Kent, a senior State Department official, and William Taylor, a former ambassador to Ukraine, and currently charge d’affaires. They emerged as exemplary foreign service professionals: considered, scrupulously factual and non-partisan — which only made the picture that emerged from their testimony all the more extraordinary. What it revealed was the extent and depth of US involvement in Ukraine, going back well into the Obama presidency. To describe it as meddling in another country’s internal affairs would be an understatement. The actual trigger for the impeachment hearings — a whistleblower’s charge that Trump had put pressure on the Ukrainian President to help him potentially slur a rival before the 2020 election — came across as just one aspect, if a particularly murky one — of a longer and continuing saga. The single most striking point to emerge was that the United States regards Ukraine as “vital to its national interest”; not to Europe’s interest, nor to Nato’s, but to its own national interest — despite the Cold War being over and Ukraine being rather a long way from the US.
Impeachment hearing highlights conflict over US policy in Ukraine - Public hearings in the impeachment inquiry against President Trump continued Tuesday, with four witnesses appearing before the House Intelligence Committee in a lengthy session extending into the evening. The first two witnesses, State Department official Jennifer Williams and Lt. Col Alexander Vindman of the National Security Council, were called by the Democrats, while former Ukraine special envoy Kurt Volker and former NSC official Tim Morrison were called by the Republicans. All four witnesses expressed concern over the July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which is the focal point of the inquiry. In the call, Trump bullied his Ukrainian counterpart, demanding an investigation into Hunter Biden, son of former vice president Joe Biden, and into alleged operations of the Democratic National Committee in Ukraine during the 2016 election. Williams, Vindman and Morrison listened in on the July 25 call, Williams as a representative of Vice President Mike Pence, whom she was advising on Eastern European and Russian affairs, and Vindman and Morrison as officials of the NSC. Vindman and Morrison immediately reported the call to the NSC legal counsel, a clear signal of concern. Vindman said he did so because he thought Trump’s demand for Ukraine to announce a corruption probe into the Bidens was wrong. Morrison claimed it was because he feared the political blowback if the call became public. Volker testified that he learned of the content of call only two months later, when it was made public by the White House on September 25. He had previously told the House Intelligence Committee, behind closed doors, that there was no connection between the withholding of US military aid to Ukraine and Trump’s demand for an investigation into Biden. But in the public session, he was not so categorical and he described Trump’s reference to the Bidens in the July 25 call as “unacceptable.” The content of the testimony and much of the tedious questioning revolved around the question of whether Trump had sought to condition US military aid to Ukraine and an invitation for the Ukrainian president to visit the White House on Ukraine’s agreement to declare it was opening an investigation into Biden and the Democrats. It is no secret that Trump engages in such transactional bullying on a daily basis, despite Republican efforts to disguise this obvious fact. For their part, the Democrats, frustrated by the evident popular disinterest in the whole proceeding, have resorted to focus groups to test whether “quid pro quo,” bribery or extortion is the most effective term to use in pursuing impeachment. The entire debate over the Trump-Zelensky phone call is a diversion from the central issue in the inquiry. What has moved impeachment to center stage in US politics is the furious reaction within the military-intelligence apparatus to Trump’s actions in two key areas of foreign policy, Ukraine and Syria. In threatening the supply of US military aid to Ukraine—as well as calling into question the US position on Crimea and suggesting he might invite Putin to the G7 summit in the United States next year and accept a Putin invitation to Moscow for the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day—Trump is seen to be undermining one of the most critical operations of American imperialism over the past two decades: the installation of a US puppet regime in Ukraine, the second-largest component of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine is widely regarded as a front-line state in any future war between NATO and Russia. While the Democrats profess shock and dismay that Trump would invite “foreign interference” in a US election by seeking political dirt on Biden from Ukraine, the “Maidan revolution” of 2014, celebrated by both parties, was the product of far more blatant foreign interference by the United States in Ukraine. The assistant secretary of state for European affairs under Obama, Victoria Nuland, wife of leading neoconservative and Iraq warmonger Robert Kagan, boasted that the US government spent $5 billion to help overthrow the elected government of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
In Impeachment Hearing, Volker And Morrison Shed Light On Giuliani’s Role Two witnesses called by Republicans in the House impeachment inquiry testified Tuesday, indicating they had reservations over the content of President Trump's July 25th phone call with the president of Ukraine, and his desire to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. Capping a long day of testimony, the House Intelligence committee heard from Kurt Volker, the former U.S. Special representative for Ukraine, and Tim Morrison, a former National Security Council aide in the afternoon session. Lawmakers earlier heard from two other witnesses who listened firsthand to the call with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a key moment in the Ukraine affair. The phone call with Ukraine's president that President Trump has repeatedly characterized as "perfect" was called "improper" by a National Security Council staff member Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, an Army foreign area officer who serves on the National Security Council. Jennifer Williams, a foreign service officer detailed to the staff of Vice President Pence also testified about the July call. Volker was at the center of the alternate policy channel for Ukraine run by Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, and Volker helped broker an important meeting between Giuliani and an aide to Zelenskiy this summer. In his opening statement, Volker changed some key aspects of his testimony behind doors last month, saying "a great deal of additional information and perspectives have come to light" since then. He said he did not know of any linkage between the hold on U.S. military aid to Ukraine and the country's pursuing investigations, and he said he did not convey such a linkage to the Ukrainians. Volker also initially said there was no discussion in a July 10 meeting between then-national security adviser John Bolton and Ukrainian official Alex Danylyuk of Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani's investigation of the Bidens. But in Tuesday's opening statement, Volker testified "As I remember, the meeting was essentially over when Ambassador Sondland made a generic comment about investigations." Volker continued "I think all of us thought it was inappropriate; the conversation did not continue and the meeting concluded." Volker said he did not understand that others believed that any investigation of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, "was tantamount to investigating Vice President Biden."
These Key Witnesses Won’t Appear At The Impeachment Hearings -The House impeachment inquiry has already featured top diplomats and national security officials sharing damning testimony about President Donald Trump’s alleged efforts to secure a quid pro quo arrangement with Ukraine’s government. When the hearings conclude, we will have heard from numerous administration officials about the scandal ― but there are many others we won’t hear from. The White House declared in early October that it won’t cooperate with the hearings. Top officials have ignored congressional subpoenas and the State Department has ordered employees not to testify. Although some officials have defied the White House and met with investigators, the administration’s effort to stymie the inquiry has succeeded in blocking access to several important witnesses. Many of these are officials who could provide the kind of firsthand accounts of Trump’s actions that Republicans have accused the inquiry of lacking. These are some of the most important figures in impeachment who you likely won’t see in the hearings: Several top national security officials have not agreed to testify in the hearings, including former national security adviser John Bolton and his deputy Charles Kupperman. Bolton was extremely wary of Trump and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s effort to pressure Ukraine to investigate political rival and 2020 candidate Joe Biden, according to testimony from other officials, and sought to distance himself from being implicated in it. Bolton reportedly told National Security Council official Fiona Hill to speak with White House lawyers about Giuliani’s shadow policy in Ukraine and the problems it was creating, according to Hill’s testimony. He also expressed concern about U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland and acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney’s involvement in pressuring Ukraine. “I’m not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up,” Bolton said, according to Hill. Bolton’s lawyer added earlier this month that the former national security adviser and longtime Washington hawk was part of “many relevant meetings and conversations” related to the impeachment inquiry. But Bolton has refused to appear unless a federal judge rules on whether White House officials are obligated to testify or should be granted immunity. House Democrats have so far decided not to subpoena Bolton, fearing it would result in a protracted legal fight.
The Spectacular Failure of the Trump Wranglers On Tuesday, nearly seven hours into the marathon third day of public impeachment hearings, Kurt Volker tried to explain to the House Intelligence Committee what it was like to carry out the nearly impossible task of wrangling U.S. policy toward Ukraine during the Presidency of Donald Trump. Volker, a veteran Republican diplomat who had been serving, since 2017, as Trump’s Special Representative to Ukraine, said that he realized last spring that he had a “problem,” and that it was Trump himself. When Volker took the job, he testified, “I believed I could steer U.S. policy in the right direction,” an ambitious statement given that Trump had already been publicly skeptical of Ukraine and supportive of its adversary Russia. Still, Volker insisted that he thought he could maintain the long-standing U.S. policy of supporting Ukraine, a bipartisan priority ever since Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, in 2014, and launched a proxy civil war in the country’s east. “If a problem arose, I knew that it was my job to try to fix it,” Volker said. In May, he learned that there was, in fact, a “significant problem”: the attitude of the President toward Ukraine. Trump, as Volker heard firsthand in an Oval Office meeting that month, believed that Ukraine was corrupt, “out to get” him, and harbored an animus going back to the 2016 election; he even embraced a discredited conspiracy theory that Ukraine, not Russia, had intervened in the U.S Presidential race. As a result, Trump was deeply skeptical toward the Administration’s own policy of supporting Ukraine and had no desire to meet with the country’s reformist new President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Volker believed that Trump was being fed misinformation about Ukraine by his private lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. “I found myself faced with a choice: to be aware of a problem and to ignore it or to accept that it was my responsibility to try to fix it,” Volker testified. “I tried to fix it.” To say that he failed would, of course, be an understatement. Had Volker succeeded, there would not be an impeachment proceeding against Trump in the House of Representatives. Instead, just a few months after Volker tried to fix the problem, he was under oath on Capitol Hill, testifying, on Tuesday, along with three current and former White House officials. (“Impeachapalooza 2019,” as the Republican Chris Stewart called it.) All three of the witnesses who testified with Volker had listened in on Trump’s now infamous July 25th phone call with Zelensky, and in their testimony they recounted varying degrees of concern as they heard Trump demand that Zelensky do him the “favor” of investigating his political rival, the former Vice-President Joe Biden, and Ukraine’s role in the 2016 election. The witnesses called Trump’s actions “improper,” “inappropriate,” and “unusual,” and said that they potentially undermine the bipartisan American policy of supporting Ukraine.
Trump impeachment inquiry: Released records reveal Pompeo-Giuliani contacts - The US State Department has released records relating to the Trump administration's dealings with Ukraine. Documents were released to the ethics watchdog American Oversight after a freedom of information request. The records show repeated contacts between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Mr Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. US ties with Ukraine are at the centre of an impeachment investigation against Mr Trump. The president is accused of withholding aid to Ukraine that had been approved by Congress to pressure the country into investigating his political rival Joe Biden. Mr Trump has declared the inquiry a "witch hunt" and denies any wrongdoing. Mr Giuliani has been accused of trying to discredit former Ukraine ambassador Marie Yovanovitch while running a shadow US foreign policy on Ukraine. There have been questions over what Secretary of State Mike Pompeo knew. The records show Mr Pompeo and Mr Giuliani repeatedly spoke to one another - although the topics of those conversations remain unknown. Emails among the documents suggest the pair spoke on the phone on 27 and 29 March. The second call came after Mr Giuliani's staff emailed a personal assistant to President Trump, Madeleine Westerhout, to ask if she had a phone number for Mr Pompeo.
Media and Democrats agree: The impeachment witnesses have ‘impeccable’ credentials - Reporters and commentators have taken it upon themselves to also act as character witnesses for these supposedly faultless public servants, praising them up-and-down for their allegedly “impeccable” credentials and records. CNN commentator and former Department of Homeland Security official Jack Tomarchio, for example, said on Oct. 23 that Taylor's record is "impeccable."MSNBC co-host Mike Barnacle said the next day that Taylor has "impeccable credentials.”“Bill Taylor, Marie Yovanovitch — people whose reputations remain impeccable,” NBC News’ Peter Alexander declared on Oct. 24.The Daily Beast’s Jonathan Alter said two days later that Taylor had an “impeccable career.”Vindman is a man of “impeccable character,” MSNBC commentator and former assistant U.S. attorney Mimi Rocah said on Oct. 28.CNN’s Don Lemon declared that same day that Vindman has “impeccable credentials.”The New York Times' Maggie Haberman said on Oct. 29 on CNN that Vindman's credentials are “impeccable.”“He seems like an impeccably credentialed ... person,” the New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin agreed.Let’s pause here to focus on the fact that this “impeccable” language mirrors exactly how Democratic lawmakers have promoted their impeachment witnesses.Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, for example, said on MSNBC on Oct. 22 that Taylor has "impeccable credentials. The impeachment witnesses, and foreign service agents in general, have "impeccable records of honesty and scholarship,” Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen of Tennessee said on CNN on Nov. 6. On Nov. 11, Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York said on CNN that Taylor is a diplomat of "impeccable credentials.” On CNN, Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel of New York said on Nov. 13 that the impeachment witnesses have "impeccable records.”
I’ve Given Up All Hope in Senate Republicans Voting to Impeach - Before Tuesday, I believed it possible that enough Republican senators would see the vivid, unmistakable and indefensible evidence of Donald Trump’s impeachable crimes and find themselves morally incapable of supporting him further. It was a long shot, but it was there.If doing the right thing was not sufficient in itself, I believed there would be enough Republican senators who would survey the ocean of evidence against Trump and come to the conclusion that he was simply too politically radioactive to embrace. I believed the combination — shame and the well-honed D.C. survival instinct — could be enough to collect 20 Republican votes to remove this demonstrable menace of a president. I believed it was possible.Once House Republican legal counsel Stephen Castor finished with his line of questioning on Tuesday, however, my hope was gone. In its place was my growing dread that after Trump is impeached by the full House, a Senate trial will likely produce some Republican votes to remove but not enough, and Trump will be available to stand for re-election a little less than a year hence.Over a long series of questions, Castor insinuated time and again that Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman — the top Ukraine expert on the national security council who was on the now-infamous July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — shared dual loyalty with Ukraine and was not a “real American.” He suggested Lt. Col. Vindman may have preferred to serve in the government of Ukraine as defense minister, rather than serve in the U.S. Army as a U.S. citizen. Other Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee — most notably Chris Stewart of Utah, who mocked Lt. Col. Vindman for wearing his uniform to the hearing and asked at one point, “Do you always insist on civilians calling you by your rank?” — took a similar tack, having found themselves incapable of un-ringing the clear evidentiary bell Lt. Col. Vindman was sounding before them. Castor, however, set the tone, and in doing so made it clear for all time that there is nothing these Republicans will not do to stand the gaffe for the reality TV star in the White House who has so thoroughly conquered them.
Trump, GOP skeptical Pelosi will go through with impeachment - New polling showing public opposition to impeachment has some Republicans along with officials in the White House voicing skepticism that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will go through with a vote on articles of impeachment. Even President Trump, while insisting he wanted an impeachment trial, predicted Friday that Pelosi would not go through with impeachment. “No, I don’t expect it,” he said in an interview on “Fox & Friends.” “I think it’s very hard for them to impeach you when they have absolutely nothing,” he added. While Pelosi has not guaranteed there will be a vote, it’s hard to imagine she would risk a backlash from the Democratic base by cutting the process short after two weeks of public hearings. Many Democrats saw the hearings as providing damning testimony against Trump. A House Democratic leadership aide called it “fantasy land” to think there won’t be a vote on the House floor. “The hearings were nearly flawless and extremely damning for the president,” said the aide, who added that a decision to not go forward would be trumpeted by the president. “While no decision has been made to proceed with impeachment, the key facts are uncontested and not proceeding at this stage will be called a ‘total exoneration’ by the president,” the aide said. Polling released last week showed rising opposition to impeachment.
Schiff Leaked Disinfo To Politico As Part Of 'Impeachment Scheme', Lawsuit Claims - A senior White House official has claimed in a lawsuit that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) "acted in concert" with Politico by leaking false information from closed-door impeachment testimony to journalist Natasha Bertrand with the goal of undermining President Trump's confidence in him "and to further Schiff's impeachment inquisition." According to the lawsuit, Schiff or his staff gave Bertrand closed-door impeachment testimony by former adviser Fiona Hill and Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman - who told lawmakers that he was told "at the last second" not to debrief President Trump after attending Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky's May inauguration. Instead, Trump was debriefed by Kashyap Patel, a senior counterterrorism official on the National Security Council (NSC) and longtime staffer for Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA). During his testimony, Vindman accused Patel of misrepresenting himself as a Ukraine expert, and said he was feeding the president misinformation about the country - which Bertrand then published in Politico. According to GOP strategist and White House regular Arthur Schwartz, "Both Vindman and Fiona Hill appear to have lied about a number of the same things." Both Vindman and Fiona Hill appear to have lied about a number of the same things. Hill is represented by Harvey Weinstein’s lawyers. Is former Obama admin hack @LeeWolosky suborning perjury? https://t.co/5E3zp4kWpT
Former Top Diplomat to Russia Suggests 'Putin Has the Transcript' of Trump's Ukraine Call - New reports suggesting Donald Trump called his EU ambassador on an unsecured line while he was visiting Ukraine could mean that “Vladimir Putin has the transcript”, according to the former top US diplomat to Russia.Michael McFaul, who served as the US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, slammed the White House for its “incredibly sloppy” dealings involving Ukraine. He spoke the day after key impeachment witness William Taylor revealed in public testimony that a mobile phone call between the president and EU Ambassador Gordon Sondland allegedly occurred the day after Mr Trump’s 25 July phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr Sondland apparently took the call in a restaurant while dining with other US diplomatic staff. “You make any call on an unclassified cell phone in Ukraine, that means Vladimir Putin has the transcript,” Mr McFaul told MSNBC’s Nicole Wallace. “I hope they didn't talk about anything compromising in that call.” “Is there anything more compromising than holding military aid over an American ally for dirt on the Bidens?” the anchor asked. “Maybe they wanted Putin to hear that, I don’t know. I’m trying to be generous here”, the former ambassador replied. “We do have secure [communications] at the embassy. If Ambassador Sondland wanted to go over and call the Situation Room on a secure telephone it would have been made readily available to him,” he added. “Not only did he not do that, but even talking about it in front of other diplomats … incredibly sloppy. Just underscores that Mr Sondland is in way over his skis, way above his pay grade in what he was doing here.”
Leaked Bank Records Confirm Burisma-Biden Payments To Morgan Stanley Account - Documents allegedly leaked by the Ukrainian General Prosecutor's office to CD Media have shed light on payments from Burisma Holdings to Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC, a corporation controlled by Hunter Biden partner (and fellow former Burisma board member) Devon Archer. Archer was Yale roommates with John Kerry's stepson Chris Heinz - the two of whom opened investment firm Rosemont Capital with Joe Biden's son, Hunter. Rosemont Capital is the parent company of Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC - the entity which receive the Burisma payments and in turn aid Biden. The newly leaked records show 45 payments between November 2014 and November 2015 totaling $3.5 million, mostly in increments of $83,333.33. The payments correspond to Morgan Stanley bank records the New York Times reported on earlier this year - submitted as evidence in a case against Archer who was convicted in a scheme to defraud pension funds and an Indian tribe of tens of millions of dollars. Archer's conviction was overturned in November by a judge who felt that he may not have willingly participated in the scheme. Leaked transaction and bank records indicate an influx of large payments from Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings Limited to Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC, in what appears to be monthly payments of $83,333.33. pic.twitter.com/BZXi61NnOO — Michael Coudrey (@MichaelCoudrey) November 14, 2019 What's more, there are several payments from "Wirelogic Technology AS" and "Digitex Organization LLP" in the amounts of 366,015 EUR and $1,964,375 US based on credit agreements - while $1,150,000 went to Devon Archer and Hunter Biden.
Here Are The Payments To Hunter Biden, Leaked From Ukraine - The information below has been leaked from the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office and acquired from intelligence sources within Ukraine; it is part of investigative materials acquired during an investigation into Biden corruption. As CD Media has reported previously, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau Of Ukraine (NABU) has succeeded in shutting down all investigationsinto Hunter Biden, Joseph Biden, Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevskiy, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewskiy. NABU is controlled by Obama/Soros linked operatives and was created to coverup Democrat, Biden, Deep State, State Department corruption during the Obama Administration and the years after in which this cabal went after duly-elected President Trump.Prosecutors who desire the information to get out in spite of the Deep State’s efforts to prevent such a release and prevent investigations to continue, have leaked to CD Media.The highlighted sections describe:According to the Department of Financial Monitoring (Counter-intelligence) of Latvia, the following sums of money were obtained from Busima Holding Limited (Cyprus) to the account of Burisma Holding Limited (Cyprus) which is open at AS PrivatBank in Latvia: money transfer of 14 655 982 US Dollars and 366 015 EUR from the company “Wirelogic Technology AS”, and 1 9 64 375 US dollars from “Digitex Organization LLP” based on the credit agreements. (Note: credit agreements here mean “intra-company” transactions to decrease the taxes to be paid or “credit agreement” also serve as means of hidden dividend payments). Further, the part of the sums described above, the money was transferred to Alan Apter (302 885 EUR), Alexander Kwasniewski (1 150 000 EUR), Devon Archer and Hunter Biden.
Lindsey Graham Goes After Both Bidens In Sweeping Request For Ukraine Communications -- Senator Graham has released the letter to Secretary of State Pompeo shoiwing that he is seeking even more details on what the Democrats continue to call a "debunked conspiracy theory." Dear Secretary Pompeo, It is my understanding that on February 4, 2016, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's office, under the direction of Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, announced the seizure of property from Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings' founder, Mykola Zlochevksy. The seizure occurred pursuant to a raid on Mr. Zlochevsky's home on February 2, 2016.It is also my understanding that on February 4, 2016, Hunter Biden began "following" then-Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken, a longtime advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, on Twitter, indicating that the two may have initiated conversations regarding Prosecutor General Shokin's investigation into Burisma. At that time, Hunter Biden was serving as a board member or Burisma.In addition, according to records obtained by media sources, on February 11, 18, and 19 of 2016, Vice President Biden held a series of phone calls with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko regarding previous demands to dismiss Prosecutor General Shokin for alleged corruption. Another phone call between the two took place on March 22, 2016, just seven days before Prosecutor General Shokin was removed from office on March 29, 2016.To assist in answering questions regarding allegations that Vice President Biden played a role in the termination of Prosecutor General Shokin in an effort to end the investigation of the company employing his son, I request the following:
- All documents and communications, including call transcripts or summaries, related to the Vice President's phone calls with President Poroshenko on February 11, 18, and 19 and March 22 of 2016, especially with respect to whether Vice President Biden mentioned the Prosecutor General's investigation into Burisma.
- All documents and communications between the Vice President and his office and President Poroshenko and his office after the raid on Mr. Zlochevsky's home on February 2, 2016, until the dismissal of the Prosecutor General on March 29, 2016.
- All documents and communications related to a meeting between Devon Archer, a business partner of Hunter Biden, and Secretary of State John Kerry on March 2, 2016.
Thank you for your prompt attention to my request.
DNA Test Reveals Hunter Biden Fathered Arkansas Child --Hunter Biden is many things; international businessman, alleged connoisseur of crack cocaine, and now - father to a child in Arkansas according to a recent DNA test revealed in a Wednesday court filing by the mother, Lunden Alexis Roberts. According to the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the test established Biden's parentage "with scientific certainty," and Biden "is not expected to challenge the results" or the testing process, according to the filing. The baby’s “paternal grandfather, Joe Biden, is seeking the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States of America,” the mother notes. “He is considered by some to be the person most likely to win his party’s nomination and challenge President Trump on the ballot in 2020.” Hunter Biden, who initially denied having sexual relations with Roberts, eventually agreed to take a DNA test, according to documents filed by Roberts’ attorney, Clint Lancaster. -Arkansas Democrat Gazette Hopefully Hunter saved some of that Burisma money.
Eric Trump Burned For Using Impeachment Hearing To Sell Trump Wine -- Eric Trump wasn’t exactly drunk with power during Ambassador Gordon Sondland’s testimony on Wednesday ― but he definitely thought about getting drunk.While Sondland was directly implicating President Donald Trump in a Ukraine shakedown, the president’s second-born son was figuring out how to make a buck off the whole impeachment situation.His solution was to push Trump wines.As you might expect, many Twitter users called out the dubious marketing stunt and Eric himself.Some people immediately thought of appropriate pairings. Some suggested a different spirit might be in order. Others were confused by the Trump wine tweet. And others just assumed Trump’s second son made a spelling error.
Clinton Foundation Files $16.8 Million Loss -Hillary Clinton’s name is pure poison and no one in their right mind wants anything to do with her.This is evidenced nowhere more in the fact that the Clinton Foundation has gone from turning over a revenue of almost $400 million in 2013, to actually LOSING almost $33 million since Donald Trump wiped the floor with Hillary in 2016.Newly released tax records show that the foundation reported a loss of almost $17 million in 2018, to add to the net loss of $16.1 million the previous year in 2017.The numbers don’t lie.Total revenue reported for 2018 was just $30.7 million, less than a tenth of what was being pulled in While Hillary was Secretary of State. Source: Investors.com Only $24.2 million was posted in grants and contributions, which constitutes a record low for the “charity.” Expenses amounted to $47.5 million, hence a loss of $16.8 million.In 2009, the Clinton Foundation hauled in $249 million, and in the four years that followed, another $392.2 million in revenue poured in. In her last three years in office, 2014-16, the foundation raised a whopping $344.4 million. In total, during the eight years of Obama’s presidency, the Clinton Foundation reported total revenue of more than $1.1 billionThen Hillary coughed and collapsed her way to the election, and America was ‘made great again’,We learned about hammers and hard drives, and a many of the Clintons’ donors realised that the optics of giving money to a ‘crooked’ family are not good.
House Minority Leader Demands ABC Explain Why They Shelved Epstein Story - House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) fired off a letter to ABC News President James Goldston demanding to know why the network shelved a story on Jeffrey Epstein after an accuser gave a detailed interview with reporter Amy Robach.Robach was featured earlier this month on an undercover video released by Project Veritas, in which she reveals she had the Epstein story three years ago, but that it was shelved because she was told "no one knows who [Epstein] is," and that it was a "stupid story." She also alleged that Epstein might have been murdered according to the Washington Examiner.McCarthy's letter was revealed by journalist Megyn Kelly on Sunday. McCarthy, in his letter to Goldston, demands answers behind the network's decision not to air Robach's story. He asks the network six questions and they are:
1. Will ABC News provide Congress the interview Ms. Robach conducted with the victim?
2. What did ABC News learn about Jeffrey Epstein after Ms. Robach first presented her story to executives?
3. Who was involved in deciding this story was not of public interest, and what were there reasons for deciding so?
4. Can Ms. Robach expand on the “outside forces” she mentioned as potentially responsible for the story not running?
5. Was ABC News ever presented with additional evidence on Mr. Epstein from the time Ms. Robach first brought her investigation too the network and when he ultimately arrested?
6. Were authorities alerted at any time after Ms. Robach presented ABC News executives with her reporting? If so, when and what was provided?
The ABC News employee, Ashley Bianco, who recorded Robach's remarks, which she has since downplayed, was fired from her most recent role at CBS News. Kelly aired an exclusive interview with Bianco. -Washington Examiner
Epstein guards expected to face criminal charges this week: report - Two of the correctional officers who were guarding Jeffrey Epstein when he killed himself are expected to face federal criminal charges this week, the Associated Press reported Monday. The guards are expected to be charged as early as Tuesday with falsifying prison records, two people familiar with the matter told the AP. These would be the first charges associated with Epstein’s death. Federal prosecutors speculate that the guards did not check on Epstein every half-hour as required and faked log entries to say they did. The guards had rejected a plea bargain the federal prosecutors had offered, the AP reported Friday. Both guards were reportedly working overtime due to staff shortages, and both have been placed on administrative leave while the FBI and Justice Department’s inspector general investigates. Federal prosecutors will file the charges in Manhattan, according to the AP. Epstein was found dead in his cell on Aug. 10, which the city’s medical examiner has ruled a suicide, although conspiracy theories surrounding his death have drawn that ruling into question. He had been on suicide watch after being found with bruises on his neck on July 23 until the week before his death.
FBI Investigating Criminal Enterprise In Connection With Arrested Epstein Guards -Two federal correctional officers who were on duty the night Jeffrey Epstein died were arrested early Tuesday on federal charges related to their failure to check on him the night he died in his cell, according to the New York Times, citing a person with knowledge of the matter. The guards faced harsh scrutiny after Epstein was found unresponsive in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City on August 10, after failing to check on him every 30 minutes as required. Instead, they fell asleep for hours and falsified records to cover up what they had done according to reports. Prosecutors offered the officers a plea deal according to CNN, which they declined, reporting that "at least one federal prison worker on duty the night before Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his prison cell was offered a plea deal in connection with the multimillionaire's death." The FBI is treating Epstein's death as a criminal matter, according to Bloomberg. "Federal prosecutors unsealed charges against two guards at the U.S. jail in lower Manhattan who were supposed to keep watch on financier Jeffrey Epstein." "The two guards are charged in New York with falsifying documents and conspiracy to defraud the U.S." Kathleen Hawk Sawyer made the admission during a line of questioning involving Sen. Lindsay Graham, in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. “With a case this high profile, there has got to be either a major malfunction of the system or criminal enterprise at foot to allow this to happen. So are you looking at both, is the FBI looking at both?” the South Carolina Republican senator asked. “The FBI is involved and they are looking at criminal enterprise, yes,” Sawyer responded. -Fox News BOP Director Sawyer says at Judiciary Committee hearing that the FBI is investigating the possibility of a "criminal enterprise" in probe of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide. (At 31 minute mark)https://t.co/uBvjQWtIEy
Demands Grow For FBI To Interview Prince Andrew Over Friendship With Jeffrey Epstein - Attorneys for Jeffrey Epstein accusers have called on the FBI to speak with disgraced British royal Prince Andrew over his years-long association with Jeffrey Epstein, which would demonstrate "justice and accountability for the victims." Attorney Lisa Bloom told The Telegraph that while it's "great" that Prince Andrew is stepping away from his royal duties, he needs to cooperate with US investigators. "It's great that he's stepping away from his royal duties, but it's really not about that — it's about justice and accountability for the victims, so it's important that he says he's going to cooperate with law enforcement," said Bloom. Bloom said Prince Andrew should answer questions from all the accusers' attorneys — in particular the attorney of Virginia Roberts Giuffre, who alleges she was coerced into having sex with Prince Andrew on three separate occasions when she was 17.Giuffre has offered a detailed account of a March 10, 2001, encounter in which she said she danced with the prince at Tramp nightclub in London before he had sex with her.Guiffre publicly released a photograph of her and Prince Andrew in which he has his arm around her waist, which she says was taken at the house of Ghislaine Maxwell, who an ex-girlfriend of Epstein's who has been accused of acting as his "fixer" at the time. -Business Insider
Facebook App Is Secretly Accessing iPhone Users' Camera --While unsuspecting iPhone users read their daily dose of mainstream media news, the Facebook app is secretly accessing the camera on their smartphones. But Facebook says not worry: it’s only a bug... Users, however, are rightly concerned that Facebook is recording them as they use the app. Unlike on Apple’s computers, there is no indicator when an app is accessing the camera, so it is possible for an app to do so in secret, as reported by The Independent.Facebook says the strange behavior is caused by a bug that was added to the code by accident and that there is no indication that photos or videos are being sent to its servers. The company claims an update has already been submitted to Apple that should remove it. In the meantime, the potential security flaw can be avoided by a simple fix in the iPhone settings that keeps Facebook from seeing the camera at all. The bug first came to light after users noted that the app would occasionally shift the entire feed over to the right, as part of what appeared to be a bug. Underneath that main app a different screen could be seen – which showed video from the phone’s built-in camera. –The Independent
Senators Ask Zuckerberg To Explain Why Facebook Still Tracks Users’ Location Even When They Have Asked it Not To -- CNBC -Two senators are asking Facebook to “respect” users’ decisions to keep their location data from the company. In a letter sent Tuesday, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., asked Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to respond to questions about how the company collects location data through the new operating systems for Apple’s iPhones and Google’s Android. Both Google and Apple updated their operating systems earlier this year to give users more control and insight into which apps can access their location data. Anticipating those changes, Facebook released a blog post in September explaining that even if users opt out of letting Facebook collect their data, it could still determine users’ locations in other ways, like through check-ins and users’ internet connections. “If a user has decided to limit Facebook’s access to his or her location, Facebook should respect these privacy choices,” the senators, members of the Judiciary Committee, wrote in the letter to Zuckerberg. “The language in the blog post, however, indicates that Facebook may continue to collect location data despite user preferences, even if the user is not engaging with the app, and Facebook is simply deducing the user’s location from information about his or her internet connection. Given that most mobile devices are connected to the internet nearly all the time, whether through a cellular network or a Wi-Fi connection, this practice would allow Facebook to collect user location data almost constantly, irrespective of the user’s privacy preferences. Users who have selected a restrictive location services option could reasonably be under the misimpression that their selection limits all of Facebook’s efforts to extract location information.”
Facebook, Google business models a ‘threat to human rights’: Amnesty report - Amnesty International said in a report that Facebook and Google's "surveillance-based business model" is inherently incompatible with the right to privacy. The NGO urged governments to take action.Amnesty International in a report has said tech giants Facebook and Google should be forced to abandon what it calls a "surveillance-based business model" that is ''predicated on human rights abuse.'' "Despite the real value of the services they provide, Google and Facebook's platforms come at a systemic cost," the human rights group said in its 60-page report published on Thursday.Amnesty said that by gathering up personal data to feed advertising businesses, the two firms carry out an unprecedented assault on privacy rights. Amnesty said the companies force people to make a ''Faustian bargain,'' where they share their data and private information in exchange for access to Google and Facebook services.The NGO said this was problematic because both firms have established "near-total dominance over the primary channels through which people connect and engage with the online world," giving them unprecedented power over people's lives."Their insidious control of our digital lives undermines the very essence of privacy and is one of the defining human rights challenges of our era," said Kumi Naidoo, Amnesty International's secretary general. Google and Facebook also present a threat to other human rights, including freedom of expression and the right to equality and non-discrimination, Amnesty said. The report has called for governments to implement policies that allow people's privacy to be protected, while ensuring access to online services.
Researchers identify seven types of fake news, aiding better detection - To help people spot fake news, or create technology that can automatically detect misleading content, scholars first need to know exactly what fake news is, according to a team of Penn State researchers. However, they add, that's not as simple as it sounds."There is a real crisis in our cultural understanding of the term 'fake news,' so much so that several scholars have actively moved away from that label because it's so muddy, confusing and weaponized by certain partisan sources," said S. Shyam Sundar, James P. Jimirro Professor of Media Effects and co-director of the Media Effects Research Laboratory in the Donald P. Bellisario College of Communications.In a study, researchers narrowed down myriad examples of fake news to seven basic categories, which includefalse news, polarized content, satire, misreporting, commentary, persuasive information and citizen journalism. The researchers also contrasted those types of content with real news and report their findings in the current issue of American Behavioral Scientist.The researchers found that real news has message characteristics that differentiate it from the various categories of fake news, such as adherence to journalistic style. False news tends to be less grammatical and less factual, with greater reliance on emotionally charged claims, misleading headlines and so on. They also differ in the kinds of sources they use and how they use them. In addition, the study noted differences in the structure of the site, such as the use of non-standard web addresses and personal e-mails in the "contact us" section. Furthermore, network differences can be used to help distinguish them, with fabricated news primarily circulated among social media accounts and seldom involving mainstream media outlets.
Blockbuster WSJ Investigation: How Google Interferes With Its Search Algorithms and Changes Your Results -- Jerri-lynn Scofield - WSJ publishes results documenting how Google tweaks its search algorithms and adjusts your search results, to privilege large over small, and muddled middle perspectives. The WSJ published a comprehensive investigation Friday, How Google Interferes With Its Search Algorithms and Changes Your Results, that provides fodder for ongoing or new antitrust investigations of the company, both in the US, and worldwide: Regulators’ areas of concern include anticompetitive practices, political bias and online misinformation. Permit to me quote from the WSJ’s takedown at length – although I encourage readers, if possible, to read the entire (paywalled) version, for it contains a wealth of information, as well as lots of cool graphics: Google’s evolving approach marks a shift from its founding philosophy of “organizing the world’s information,” to one that is far more active in deciding how that information should appear. More than 100 interviews and the Journal’s own testing of Google’s search results reveal:
- • Google made algorithmic changes to its search results that favor big businesses over smaller ones, and in at least one case made changes on behalf of a major advertiser,eBay Inc., contrary to its public position that it never takes that type of action. The company also boosts some major websites, such as Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc.,according to people familiar with the matter.
- • Google engineers regularly make behind-the-scenes adjustments to other information the company is increasingly layering on top of its basic search results. These features include auto-complete suggestions, boxes called “knowledge panels” and “featured snippets,” and news results, which aren’t subject to the same company policies limiting what engineers can remove or change.
- • Despite publicly denying doing so, Google keeps blacklists to remove certain sites or prevent others from surfacing in certain types of results. These moves are separate from those that block sites as required by U.S. or foreign law, such as those featuring child abuse or with copyright infringement..
- • In auto-complete, the feature that predicts search terms as the user types a query, Google’s engineers have created algorithms and blacklists to weed out more-incendiary suggestions for controversial subjects, such as abortion or immigration, in effect filtering out inflammatory results on high-profile topics.
- • Employees can push for revisions in specific search results, including on topics such as vaccinations and autism.
- • To evaluate its search results, Google employs thousands of low-paid contractors whose purpose the company says is to assess the quality of the algorithms’ rankings. Even so, contractors said Google gave feedback to these workers to convey what it considered to be the correct ranking of results, and they revised their assessments accordingly, according to contractors interviewed by the Journal. The contractors’ collective evaluations are then used to adjust algorithms.
One major bias: a preference for big versus small. The WSJ notes that at least for shopping results, Google made the tweak as it believed consumers are more likely to find what they want at larger vendors. But this bias looks to me like it stymies, rather than promotes competition. The bias is not limited to shopping, as WSJ reader James West noted in comments (agreeing implicitly with my interpretation of the anti-competitive effect of the Google practice): Conservative sites often claim their sites are disadvantaged compared to “liberal” or “mainstream” sites. This is not exactly news. Yet the bias extends beyond rightwing sites. As the World Socialist Web Site wrote in 2017 in Google’s new search protocol is restricting access to 13 leading socialist, progressive and anti-war web sites: New data compiled by the World Socialist Web Site, with the assistance of other Internet-based news outlets and search technology experts, proves that a massive loss of readership observed by socialist, anti-war and progressive web sites over the past three months has been caused by a cumulative 45 percent decrease in traffic from Google searches.
Warren Raises ‘Corruption’ Alarm After Trump, Zuckerberg, and Thiel Hold Secret White House Meeting -Sen. Elizabeth Warren issued warnings of corruption Thursday morning after it was reported that Facebook founder and CEO, along with company board member and right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel, enjoyed a recent secret White House meeting with President Donald Trump.NBC News broke the story late Wednesday, reporting that Facebook confirmed the meeting took place in October while Zuckerberg was in Washington, D.C. to testify before Congress. Facebook board member Peter Thiel, a major Trump donor and the recipient of numerous government contracts for his company's data-mining work under the Trump administration, also attended the dinner.Warren seized on the news, accusing Zuckerberg of "going on a charm offensive with Republican lawmakers" as law enforcement agencies investigate whether Facebook has violated antitrust laws."This is corruption, plain and simple," Warren tweeted. The senator pointed to the dinner as an example of the kind of corporate activities with the federal government she wouldn't allow as president should she win the 2020 presidential election."I won't cozy up to Facebook when I'm president," Warren tweeted. "It's time to root out corruption in Washington. Until we do, we won't be able to make any progress on any of the issues that matter to us."A Facebook spokesperson told NBC that the dinner was a "normal" occurrence for the CEO of a major company, but Buzzfeed technology reporter Alex Kantrowitz tweeted that the secretive presidential dinner with two Silicon Valley billionaires who largely control a media platform used by about 70 percent of Americans should raise doubts about Facebook's claims of commitment to "political transparency."
YouTube To Delete All Accounts That Aren't Commercially Viable Starting Dec. 10th --Content creators everywhere are starting to panic about an upcoming policy change over at YouTube that threatens to eliminate all accounts and channels on the Google-owned video platform that are deemed to no longer be “commercially viable.” In the “Account Suspension & Termination” section of YouTube’s “Terminations by YouTube for Service Changes,” guidelines, the company explains that, as of December 10, 2019, “YouTube may terminate your access, or your Google account’s access to all or part of the Service, if YouTube believes, in its sole discretion, that provision of the Service to you is no longer commercially viable.”In other words, if you have a YouTube channel that YouTube employees decide isn’t profitable enough for Google, then the company has now granted itself the option to completely shut down your account without warning or consequence. What this means is that YouTube content creators who’ve built their entire livelihoods around the platform are going to need a backup option in the event that they end up being terminated. It also means that YouTube has created for itself yet another legal loophole to continue targeting channels that disseminate politically incorrect content, which YouTube has been trying to silence from its platform for at least the past several years.
Private Equity Under the Hot Lights at House Financial Services Committee Hearing, “America for Sale?” - Yves Smith - Private equity is finally getting some long overdue official scrutiny via a series of Congressional moves. One is the full House Financial Services Committee meeting today, at 10:00 AM, America for Sale? An Examination of the Practices of Private Funds. You will find the live webcast at that link, as well as links on that page to the written testimony of each of the witnesses. This is a meaty topic, plus AOC should be on deck, so I hope you can catch at least some of the hearings and comment here if you are so moved.In addition to this hearing, other measures underway are the bipartisan bills in the House and Senate to prevent surprise billing (which as we’ve discussed, is in large measure the result of private equity buying, consolidating, and exploiting various physicians’ practices that provide outsourced services to hospitals). The hard-ball lobbying against the bill generated a backlash, with the Energy and Commerce committee as well as Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representatives Mark Pocan and Lloyd Doggett all seeking pricing information from the major private equity firms engaged in these practices.The big question may be, “Why now?” We’ve been writing about private equity’s dodgy practices for years, and we are not alone. The testimony provides an answer. The short version is that it is finally becoming obvious to too many people that for the most part, private equity’s profits come at the expense of everyone else. (For convenience, we are referring to private equity, but bear in mind that some hedge funds also will buy companies)Private equity firms also seem rattled by Elizabeth Warren’s “Stop Wall Street Looting Act,” which would make private equity general partners and their control persons jointly and severally liable for all liabilities of the companies they acquire, as well as of the investment fund. Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin explains why, contrary to what the industry would have you believe, this is not an outlandish idea (in fact, the “heads I win, tails you lose” arrangement that private equity firms have created is what ought to be regarded as outlandish). In a post last week, Levitin shreds the “Chicken Little” claims of the damage that the Warren bill would supposedly do, seeing them as a measure of industry worry. Another indicator of the industry’s diminished stature: the number of critical articles, even within the normally deferential financial press. For instance, Mark Hulbert’s MarketWatch op-ed last week used the proposed KKR leveraged buyout of Walgreens as a point of departure for a broad-ranging critique of private equity’s underwhelming returns. The damning subhead: “No evidence that public companies perform better after being taken private”
Ocasio-Cortez: 'I Was Sent to Here to Safeguard and Protect People,' Not the Profits of Private Equity - During a U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing Tuesday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez railed against private equity firms for "wiping out tens of thousands of jobs" and having "undemocratic impacts on media companies.""I wasn't sent here to safeguard and protect profit," said the New York Democrat. "I was sent here to safeguard and protect people."The hearing, entitled "America for Sale? An Examination of the Practices of Private Funds," was called by Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), chair of the committee, "to examine the impact of private funds on businesses and workers," as Waters said in her opening statement."While there are some examples of private equity firms playing a beneficial role in the U.S. economy, there are far too many examples of private equity firms destroying companies, and preying on hardworking Americans to maximize their profits," Waters added. "Today we are going to take a hard look at those practices and examine whether Congress should take action to prevent the predatory practices of some private equity firms and hedge funds."The hearing focused on three pieces of legislation, including the Stop Wall Street Looting Act of 2019 (H.R.3848 and S.2155). Introduced in July by Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the bill is co-sponsored by many progressives in both chambers, including Ocasio-Cortez.Warren's office explained in a fact sheet (pdf) earlier this year that the bill aims to "level the playing field, protect workers, consumers, and investors, and force private equity firms to take responsibility for the success of companies they control by closing the loopholes that allow them to capture all the rewards of their investments while insulating themselves from risk."The hearing came after Warren, Pocan, and some of the bill's other sponsors—including one of Warren's rivals in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)—sent a letter (pdf) Monday to Carmine Di Sibio, global chairman and CEO of Ernst & Young AG, to criticize the accounting firm for an October report on the private equity industry. The report (pdf) was released in partnership with the American Investment Council (AIC), an industry trade group, but the lawmakers' letter suggests the joint effort was intended to bolster private equity in the face of intense criticism and recent legislation in Congress.
This Chart Shows How the Fed Has Spooked the Commercial Paper Market - Pam Martens - Yesterday the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its Federal Open Market Committee meeting of October 29-30. The minutes show that the FOMC members were fingering their worry beads over plans for their longer-term handling of the hundreds of billions of dollars weekly that the New York Fed is pumping into the overnight and term repo markets. The worries center on whether the Fed is creating moral hazard and/or that the banks will “take on an undesirably high amount of liquidity risk.” We have news for the Fed: both of those horses have left the barn. The Fed enshrined moral hazard and liquidity risk among Wall Street banks when it funneled $29 trillion to the miscreant banks from 2007 to 2010 while intentionally hiding its footprints from the public until it lost its court battle and had to disclose the data.According to the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report that was released in July, the leveraged loan market is now $3.2 trillion. U.S. mega banks and other global banks hold 38 percent of those high-risk loans or $1.21 trillion. The report also points out that “In the U.S., gross corporate debt as a share of GDP is now above pre-crisis levels.”The Fed’s FOMC minutes also revealed that it is worried about “the likelihood that participation in the Federal Reserve’s repo operations could become stigmatized….” Well, obviously, if you can’t get one of your peer banks to give you a collateralized overnight loan and have to turn to the Fed, you’ve got a stigma problem.One thing the Fed did not mention was that its urgent need to funnel $3 trillion into the overnight lending market on Wall Street within a period of two months might spook the commercial paper market where corporations and banks borrow for longer periods, like one to three months. Our chart above, using data provided by the St. Louis Fed, shows that before the New York Fed intervened in the repo market on September 17, the interest rate on 3-month commercial paper was smaller than the targeted rate on the Federal Funds rate set by the Fed. But as the Fed spooked the market by turning on its repo money spigot for the first time since the financial crisis, 3-month commercial paper rates have spiked higher than the Fed Funds rate. In other words, corporations and banks are now paying more to borrow in the commercial paper market. (Please note that the red line in the chart above does not include the 14-day term loans the New York Fed is making. If those were added in, the daily amount of money provided by the New York Fed would have sometimes spiked to over $100 billion.) The St. Louis Fed data also shows that the commercial paper market is shrinking at the same time the cost to borrow is rising – suggesting that money market funds may be unwilling to roll over maturing commercial paper – exactly what happened during the financial crisis.
OCC offers roadmap for banks to bypass ‘Madden’ ruling — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency proposed steps Monday for banks to be able to work around a 2015 court ruling that had restricted their ability to sell off loans. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision four years ago in Madden v. Midland Funding posed new legal challenges for institutions transferring debts to third parties. The court ruled that a usury law in the buyer's state can apply. To bypass those interest rate caps, the OCC is proposing to clarify that when a national bank sells a loan, the same interest rate can survive to both ends of the transaction. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is expected to propose a similar fix in a board meeting on Tuesday. “Recent developments have created uncertainty about the ongoing validity of the interest term after a bank sells, assigns, or otherwise transfers a loan,” the OCC's proposal says. “After considering the principles discussed below, the OCC has concluded that when a bank sells, assigns, or otherwise transfers a loan, interest permissible prior to the transfer continues to be permissible following the transfer.” Several industry representatives and legal experts welcomed the OCC's move, saying the Madden court ruling was a barrier to partnerships between banks and nonbank fintech companies. The OCC proposal “does have a certain degree of reinstating stability for the process.” But consumer advocates said the proposal sanctions deals with unregulated nonbanks in order to avoid borrower protections. They warned that loan purchasers will pursue "rent-a-bank" models."The OCC just declared open season on consumers for unlicensed, subprime lenders,” said Adam Levitin, a Georgetown University law professor.He said he expected the proposal to get challenged in court. “The proposed rule will allow unlicensed subprime lenders to do business in every state, no matter of the state’s rate caps, as long as they can find a passive bank partner that will rent out its charter privileges,” Levitin said. Until the Madden decision, financial institutions followed the “valid when made” doctrine, which provides that if a loan’s interest rate is valid in the state where it was originated, that loan continues to be valid when transferred to a party in another state. But the 2nd Circuit ruling in 2015 essentially cast doubt on the validity of that doctrine.
Regulators approve slew of final reg relief bill rules — Federal regulators have finalized a handful of rules mandated by last year's regulatory relief law. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted to approve the regulations at a board meeting Tuesday, with the Federal Reserve expected to follow suit later in the day. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized its rules late Monday. One exempts certain custody banks from including certain deposits in their calculation of the Supplemental Leverage Ratio. Basel III requires large, internationally active banks to hold at least 3% capital based on a simple calculation of total assets to total liabilities without taking into account the relative riskiness of the bank’s underlying assets. Custody banks have long argued that the rule is too restrictive. The rule, which was mandated by last year’s Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act — also known as the Crapo bill, named for its lead author, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho — exempts from the SLR deposits held at the central bank by certain custody banks and/or custody banking subsidiaries of bank holding companies. A critical sticking point of the rule has been how the regulators would define a custody bank, which the Crapo bill defines as “any depository institution holding company predominantly engaged in custody, safekeeping, and asset servicing activities, including any insured depository institution subsidiary of such a holding company.” The agencies defined custody banks as those with a ratio of assets-under-custody to total assets of 30:1 — a definition that was unchanged from the agencies’ April 2019 proposal. Only Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust would qualify for relief under the final rule.
U.S. banking regulators taking harder look at climate change -- Once content to sit on the sidelines of the climate-change fight, U.S. banking regulators have begun to speak out about the connections between extreme weather and the financial system. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has mostly led the charge, but in recent weeks top officials at the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve Board have joined the conversation. They have focused largely on encouraging the private sector to think about the broad systemic risks of changing weather patterns, in some cases issuing calls for innovation to deal with certain threats. Mounting losses from hurricanes, floods and wildfires have finally become too great for banking regulators to ignore, industry observers said. One major example they cite is the bankruptcy of PG&E, which lost over $20 billion from the deadly California wildfires of 2017 and 2018. PG&E’s bankruptcy filing is the largest corporate bankruptcy in the U.S. in the past decade and perhaps the first that can be linked directly to climate change. “We are on the verge of the economic implications of climate [change] being seen for exactly what they are: formal, systemic financial risks that need to be factored into financial decisions,” U.S. banking regulators have largely trailed their European counterparts in addressing the risks that climate change poses to the financial system. Central banks abroad have already been assessing the economic impacts of a warming world, and the Bank of England is even considering incorporating climate risk into its analyses of banks’ loan portfolios. In letters to Congress in March and April, the three federal banking regulators signaled that they weren’t willing to go as far as incorporating climate risk into stress testing. But various remarks and proposals since then, especially from regional Fed officials, indicate that regulators’ views are evolving quickly. Kevin Stiroh, an executive vice president with the New York Fed, recently highlighted climate change as a major emerging risk to the U.S. economy during remarks at the GARP Global Risk Forum. He pointed out, for example, that the U.S. has lost $500 billion over the past five years due to climate-related events. “Climate change has significant consequences for the U.S. economy and financial sector through slowing productivity growth, asset revaluations and sectoral reallocations of business activity,” he said Nov. 7. Just days later, the San Francisco Fed hosted a daylong conference dedicated to the issue, a first for any U.S. banking regulator. “It is vital for monetary policymakers to understand the nature of climate disturbances to the economy, as well as their likely persistence and breadth, in order to respond effectively,” Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said in prepared remarks at the event.
Senate bill would require Fed to develop stress tests for climate risks — Sen. Brian Schatz introduced a bill Wednesday that would require the Federal Reserve to study and manage climate-related risks to the financial system. The Climate Change Financial Risk Act would mandate that the central bank form an advisory group of climate scientists and climate economists to help develop climate change scenarios for the financial stress tests. “While our federal regulators are legally obligated to manage and reduce risks in the financial system, they have been ignoring the growing financial risks of climate change,” the Hawaii Democrat said in a press release. “We should not be treating some risks different from others: risks are risks. This bill will push the Fed to do their job and start taking climate risk seriously.” The legislation is also co-sponsored by five of the senators currently running for president — Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Michael Bennet, D-Colo. The bill calls for the Fed to develop three climate-related stress test scenarios: a 1.5 degree Celsius warming scenario, a 2 degree scenario, and a “business as usual” scenario, which assumes a higher level of warming based on current climate policies. The Fed would be required to conduct the stress tests every two years for financial institutions that are currently subject to Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, or CCAR. The tests would require financial institutions to create and update a qualitative plan that describes how they will evolve capital planning practices to limit the financial impacts of future climate risks. The bill would give the Fed the authority to object to an unreasonable or ineffective climate risk capital plan. If the Fed objects to a bank’s plan, the institution will not be able to proceed with capital distributions until the objection is lifted.
Apple Is Now Bigger Than The Entire US Energy Sector; Disney Is Bigger Than Europe's Top 5 Banks - Something fascinating took place on January 3: on that day AAPL slashed its revenue guidance, blamed China, and triggered a cascade of flash crashes across various carry currency pairs. More importantly, that day also saw the lowest stock print for AAPL since the summer of 2017, and triggered an unprecedented ramp in AAPL stock which since then is up a mindblowing 86%... ... largely as a by-product of its gargantuan stock buyback program, which started in Q3 2013, and which has seen a third of AAPL's total stock repurchased in the past 6 years. If one extrapolates the current trend, AAPL will fully LBO itself, i.e., have no public shares outstanding some time in 2030. And while a record buyback in an abysmally illiquid market can do miracles to give the impression that there is a natural buyer, there is only so much that Tim Cook can do to offset the inevitable selloff that will follow the collapse of the US-China trade talks which will also drag down any company that has exposure to the Chinese market, not to mention the next recession which will see consumer spending on AAPL service grind to a halt, until that moment comes, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett has made a stunning observation: with a market cap of $1.17tn, AAPL now has a greater capitalization than the entire US energy sector. And there is more to come: Apple this week issued a euro-denominated bond with a 0% coupon (whose proceeds AAPL will then promptly use to repurchase even more stock), which as Hartnett puts it is the "QE-induced bull market in "growth" & "yield" in a nutshell." There's more. Now that Walt Disney has joined the deflation fray by trying to snatch market share from Netflix and Amazon by offering its streaming video service at roughly half the price (with remarkable success so far, adding 10 million users in just 24 hours) it too has enjoyed an amazing lift in its stock price now that it too is seen as a "growth" company, and at a market cap of $268 billion, Disney is now bigger than market cap of the 5 largest European banks - BNP, Santander, ING, Intesa and Credit Agricole.
Ripple's XRP used in $400M of crimes, a crypto-tracking firm says -- Elliptic, a company that monitors cryptocurrency transactions for signs of foul play, recently began watching XRP — the digital currency created, and mostly controlled by, Ripple. In its analysis, Elliptic says it has found $400 million of crime that involved the use of XRP since the digital currency was formed. This is a relatively low number, as $198 billion of transactions have taken place using XRP since its inception. So crime represents 0.2% of XRP transactions. According to Elliptic, the amount of bitcoin transactions linked to illegal activity is 0.5%. The types of misdeeds committed in the currencies are different, according to Tom Robinson, chief scientist and co-founder of Elliptic. Illegal activity in bitcoin is mostly people buying things like drugs and guns on the dark web, he says. Many dark web marketplaces accept bitcoin. The kinds of criminal activities people use XRP for are Ponzi schemes and other scams, Robinson said. Like other cryptocurrency-monitoring services, including Chainalysis, Elliptic links digital currency addresses to real-world people and entities. It gives each transaction a risk score based on the owner of the associated account and the activity on that account. Besides XRP and bitcoin, Elliptic monitors ether, litecoin and tether. The crypto-friendly Silvergate Bank is a client. Elliptic’s data analysts constantly scour the dark web for cryptocurrency usage. When a Ponzi scheme operator asks victims to make payment to certain accounts, Elliptic tracks that. It also follows stolen funds from cryptocurrency exchanges and monitors ransomware payments.
Hedge Fund: It Is Astonishing That MSCI And Bloomberg/Barclays Index Force Global Pensioners To Fund China's Communist Party - “They can no longer get their money out,” said the investor, a builder of global institutional portfolios. “Allocators who made private equity investments in mainland China over the past 5-10yrs are now trapped,” he continued. “Not metaphorically trapped - they’re literally not permitted to move cash proceeds out of China as those investments are sold. The problem is widespread and the sums so large that we now have internal people focused on helping these allocators hedge the exchange rate risk.” A worse fate than having your capital simply imprisoned in a foreign country, is having it locked-up and then devalued while you plot an escape. “As investments mature and private equity managers distribute renminbi, they now ask clients who cannot get that money out of China to re-invest in their latest funds.” But even as the globe’s most sophisticated institutional investors find their capital quietly held hostage by Beijing, passive retail retirement savings is flowing into Chinese stocks and bonds at an accelerating pace. In March 2019, MSCI quadrupled the share of Chinese onshore equities in their indexes. The increase is estimated to force between $80bln-$125bln of overseas savings into Chinese onshore stocks. MSCI left room to go further - to get to their full weighting, another $160bln-$250bln of passive equity flows will move to Beijing. And the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate index introduced a 6% weighting to China’s $13trln domestic bond market for the first time this March. An estimated $125bln-$150bln of inflows followed. If other bond index providers follow Bloomberg/Barclays, an additional $125bln-$150bln will race in. After decades of ever rising global capital flows, it is easy to forget that capital enters and exits nations only with the express permission of those in power. “In the midst of rising East/West conflict and knowing that institutional investors are struggling to get their money out, it is astonishing that MSCI and Bloomberg/Barclays index boards have forced global pensioners to fund the Party.”
Lawmaker presses Wells Fargo on checking account refunds - Wells Fargo is once again taking criticism for its treatment of customers, this time over potentially “hundreds of millions of dollars” in fees charged on two popular checking accounts, according to a letter from a member of the House Financial Services Committee. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., pressed new Wells CEO Charles Scharf in a Nov. 21 letter for details about how the bank is fixing “widespread confusion” about whether customers would be charged $10 monthly fees on the bank's Everyday Checking and Opportunity Checking accounts. Porter asked whether Wells has made any refunds and the total dollar amount. The bank disclosed the potential problem in its last three quarterly filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, saying it was reviewing how its past disclosures may have confused customers about which kind of debit card transactions counted toward a waiver of the fees. Customers who conduct at least 10 transactions do not have to pay the fee. According to Porter's letter, few account holder knew that ATM withdrawals are not counted. “Based on the possibility of confusion by some customers regarding the transactions that counted toward the waiver, we expect to refund certain monthly service and related fees to affected customers,” Wells said in the quarterly filings. The issue with the accounts was reported by the Capital Forum in August. Porter's letter was first reported by the Washington Post.
Trump Administration Declares Open Season on Consumers for Subprime Lenders - Adam Levitin, Credit Slips -- The Trump administration has just proposed a rule that declares open season on consumers for subprime lenders. The Office of Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (on whose board the CFPB Director serves) have released parallel proposed rulemakings that will effectively allowing subprime consumer lending that is not subject to any interest rate regulation, including by unlicensed lenders.The proposed rule provides that nonbank assignees of loans from banks may charge whatever interest rate the bank may charge. This is a regulatory implementation of the so-called “valid-when-made” doctrine, a spurious modern invention that has been rejected by the only federal court of appeals to address it. The rulemaking green lights unregulated subprime lending nationwide. In particular, allows unregulated payday lending (although it also applies to title lending, installment lending, etc.). Currently payday loans are allowed in only about half of the states, and the other half all strictly regulate it, including through restrictions on finance charges. The level of finance charges allowed in permissive states is frequently criticized by consumer advocates, but it is important to recognize that payday lending is not unregulated in any state in which it is allowed. The Trump administration’s proposal would allow payday lenders to make loans in every state without regard to state usury laws (or state licensing requirements and thus enforcement of other state consumer protection laws)…just as long as those lenders partner with a bank. These bank partnerships are often called “rent-a-bank” arrangements, for that is truly what is going on. Bank charters are not easy to obtain, and they come with certain privileges, including exemption from state usury laws (I oversimplify here). In a rent-a-bank arrangement, the bank serves as the formal lender—that is the bank will be the creditor on the loan—but the non-bank partner will generally do everything of substance with the loan: it will market the loan product and prospect for customers, it will underwrite the loan (or license the underwriting software to the bank, which will exercise almost no discretion in using the software), it will service the loan, and it will be either the assignee of the loan or will purchase a derivative interest in the loan. In other words, the bank will let the non-bank use its exemption from state usury laws for a fee. Rent-a-bank relationships are shams, plain and simple.
CFPB's final payday rule should be ready in spring, agency says — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to issue a final rule in April that would rescind strong underwriting requirements for payday lenders, the agency said this week. Earlier this year, the CFPB proposed an overhaul of its tough payday lending regulation issued in 2017 under former Director Richard Cordray. The new plan would eliminate a provision forcing lenders to verify borrowers’ repayment ability. The bureau preserved restrictions on lenders making repeated attempts to debit payments from consumer bank accounts. “The comment period for the [proposal] closed in May 2019 and the Bureau is carefully reviewing the approximately 190,000 comments it received,” the agency said in its fall rulemaking agenda. “The Bureau expects to take final action in April 2020 with respect to this proposal.” Meanwhile, a lawsuit pending in Texas is seeking to get the original payday lending regulation thrown out. The judge in that case has delayed the compliance date for the 2017 rule to November 2020. The CFPB agenda also includes plans to issue a proposal this year revising the agency’s remittance rule. The plan would address the July 2020 sunset of a “temporary exception that allows institutions to estimate fees and exchange rates in some circumstances,” the bureau said. The agency also added two new rulemaking initiatives to its long-term regulatory agenda — regarding loan originator compensation and the use of electronic communication in credit card servicing and origination — both stemming from a comprehensive 2018 review of the CFPB’s operations.
Fed won't move on CRA reform this year: Otting -- The Federal Reserve will not move with other regulators this year to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act, according to Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting. But speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Otting downplayed the impact of the Fed's lack of participation. "Not every rule among agencies is the same," Otting said after speaking at the Bank Policy Institute's annual conference in New York this week. "Between the OCC and the FDIC, we control about 85% of the CRA." According to Otting, the chief disagreement with the Federal Reserve came down to how regulators would measure CRA investment. "We've been trying to formalize a unit and dollars approach," Otting told reporters. While the OCC planned to incorporate both the number of loans and total value into CRA assessment, the Fed sought to put more emphasis on the number of loans, Otting said. Speaking to reporters later in the day, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams said her agency would join the OCC in its proposal. "You do have these situations where one agency, for whatever internal politics or substantive reasons, doesn't want to move forward," she said. "It's not about leaving the Fed behind... You can't wait for the perfect solution. At some point you've got to move." A Federal Reserve spokesperson said the central bank "worked diligently for months with the FDIC and OCC to agree on a common approach." "It is unfortunate that these efforts have so far not been successful and that the agencies were unable to reach agreement on metrics that would be tailored to bank size and business model and reflect the different credit needs of the local communities that are at the heart of the statute," the spokesperson said. "We continue to believe that the best outcome would be a joint proposal.” Otting's comment comes a few weeks after regulators hinted that a joint proposal may not be possible. McWilliams said last month that a joint proposal was no sure thing, and Otting has repeatedly said the OCC was willing to move on its own.
Retail Apocalypse Forces Fitch To Downgrade CMBS Deals Amid Fears Of Large Losses -The retail apocalypse has been absolutely devastating; approximately 12,000 stores are expected to or have already closed in 2019. This has prompted Fitch Ratings to downgrade some classes of notes in two commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), creating concern about significant future losses originating from their exposure to shopping malls, reported International Financing Review (IFR).The story behind the retail industry continues to be a troubling one. Retailers have insurmountable debts, overexpanded with cheap money, private equity-ownership pressures, and are now facing changing consumer trends that have made e-commerce more popular than ever before. As a result, many retailers are rapidly shrinking their footprint ahead of the next recession, or in some cases filing for bankruptcy to either restructure or completely liquidate all assets. The rating agency understands these significant retail trends. It has decided on Monday to downgrade four classes of notes in the UBS-Barclays Commercial Mortgage Trust 2012-C2, and four classes of notes in Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2011-C2.The UBS notes have loans with four shopping malls in Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, and South Carolina, representing 27% of the loan pool. It's likely the downgrades by Fitch are ahead of these shopping malls going bust and could mean severe losses are ahead for investors.Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2011-C2 has loans tied to two shopping malls in Texas that represents 28.5% of the collateral pool, Fitch said.The rating agency warned, "the ability of these loans to refinance at their scheduled April and June 2021 loan maturities" could be challenging for the mall loans in Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2011-C2.Both CMBS deals have shopping malls anchored by department stores Sears, Dillard's, Macy's, and JCPenney, many of which are going out of business at record speed. With consumers weakening and retail sales expected to slump into 2020, Fitch is getting ahead of the retail bust and warning investors that CMBS deals with heavy mall exposure could see significant losses ahead. Notably, amid stagnant retail stock prices and a recent collapse in the buying-climate, CMBX prices have continued to zoom higher (especially since The Fed began NotQE).
Farm Bankruptcies Are Way Up This Year - It's no secret that the past few years have been disastrous for the American farming industry. Freak weather, oversupply, trade wars, pesticide damage — it's been a perfect storm, on top of all the regular storms, for American farmers. The American Farm Bureau Federation, commonly just called the Farm Bureau,released a study examining the end result of all of that damage: bankruptcies. The Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that typically leans to the corporate side of farming, analyzed statistical data from the U.S. Courts concerning bankruptcy filings. For the year leading up to September 2019, American farm bankruptcies were up by a whopping 24 percent compared to the year before. During this mostly-2019 period, there were 580 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings. Chapter 12 is a form of bankruptcy filing that was first passed in 1986, specifically for farms or fishing operations. The restrictions are brutal, requiring millions of dollars of debt, so it's even more concerning that so many farmers qualify. The Farm Bureau's data analysis drills down further, finding that the highest number of bankruptcy filings were in Wisconsin, followed by Georgia, Nebraska and Kansas. Wisconsin's 48 bankruptcies in 2019 are likely high because of the dairy industry; an estimated 40 percent of dairy farms in the state nicknamed "America's Dairyland" have gone out of business in the past decade, according to NPR. The number of farm bankruptcies over the past few years is still not quite at the heights of the 1980s farm crisis, where a combination of a Soviet embargo, record supply, and an extreme drop in the value of farmland led directly to the creation of Chapter 12 bankruptcy in the first place. But the pattern is alarming, with the trade war continuing and a sudden brutally cold stretch of weather affecting harvests. The USDA is attempting to address these problems with bailout money, but uneven distribution and timing issues may mean that funding is too little and too late to save many farm businesses.
FHFA will re-propose capital rule for Fannie, Freddie - — The Federal Housing Finance Agency will re-propose the entire post-conservatorship capital framework originally put forward in June 2018 under former agency director Mel Watt, and expects to release a revamped plan sometime next year, the agency said Tuesday. Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now permitted to retain significantly higher levels of capital than they had when Watt originally issued the proposal, the agency believes it should be revisited instead of finalized as-is, said FHFA Director Mark Calabria. “In fairness to all interested parties, the comments submitted during the previous rulemaking were submitted under a different set of assumptions about the future of the enterprises,” he said in a press release. “During the process of the rulemaking, important issues were identified that will be addressed in the re-proposal.” FHFA Director Mark Calabria “The objective is, have the capital rule finished, so that we know what the capital target is, and then they’ll raise the capital to meet that,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria told reporters in September. Bloomberg News Calabria also emphasized that a final rule will be completed in a timeline “fully consistent” with ending conservatorship of the two government-sponsored enterprises. In Watt’s proposal, the agency asked for comment on two different minimum leverage ratio requirements that would incorporate credit risk for different mortgage categories and include components for market risk and operational risk. Under one option, the GSEs would have to hold capital equal to 2.5% of assets and off-balance-sheet guarantees. The second method would have required Fannie and Freddie’s capital to be equal to 1.5% of trust assets and 4% of nontrust assets. But in comment letters to the FHFA submitted last November, a number of lenders and other stakeholders called for the GSEs to hold a higher amount of capital post-conservatorship than Watt’s proposal suggested, and expressed concern that the framework was too procyclical. In September, Calabria had said that if he decided to re-propose the capital rule — something that he views as a vital prerequisite to ending conservatorship — the new rule would probably be completed around May 2020. “The objective is, have the capital rule finished, so that we know what the capital target is, and then they’ll raise the capital to meet that,”
NCUA follows bank regulators’ lead on home appraisals -- After raising the threshold for appraisals on commercial real estate transactions earlier this year, the National Credit Union Administration is now moving forward on a proposed rule to up the limit for residential loans. The NCUA board on Thursday unanimously voted to approve a proposed rule that would raise the bar under which appraisals are not required for residential real estate deals from $250,000 to $400,000. The vote opens a 60-day public comment period on the proposal. But while Todd Harper, the board’s junior member, voted in favor of the proposal, he said he views the prospect of a higher residential appraisal threshold “with some skepticism and real doubt.” Indeed, with the warning signs of a recession seemingly just over the horizon, “we may be loosening standards at the wrong time,” Harper added. This is the second time Harper been skeptical of changes to the agency’s appraisal rules. In July, Harper voted against a controversial rule that boosted the appraisal threshold for commercial real estate loans to $1 million, twice as high as the limit for banks. Chairman Rodney Hood and board member J. Mark McWatters voted in favor of the higher commercial real estate appraisal threshold. Both also voted yes on the residential proposal. While bankers blasted NCUA for its action on CRE appraisals, they’re unlikely to raise a similar ruckus about a $400,000 threshold for residential loans, since their regulators implemented an identical limit in September. The threshold for banks had been set at $250,000. The Appraisal Institute, which opposed NCUA’s measure boosting the CRE limit to $1 million, also objected to the move increasing the residential threshold for banks. For deals under $400,000, NCUA’s proposed residential appraisal regulation would require a written estimate of a property’s market value prepared by a qualified, experienced individual.
CFPB to assess effectiveness of mortgage disclosure rule - — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is conducting an assessment of its integrated mortgage disclosure rule, which could lead to future revisions. The agency said Wednesday it is inviting public comment on its disclosure regime combining requirements of the Truth In Lending Act. The TILA-RESPA integrated disclosures are known as TRID. The Dodd-Frank Act requires the CFPB to carry out assessments of significant rules — often referred to as "look-backs" — at least every five years. The TRID rule took effect in October 2015. The bureau said the assessment is meant to identify ways the rule can more effectively meet its stated goals. "The public is invited to comment on the feasibility and effectiveness of the assessment plan, recommendations to improve the assessment plan, and recommendations for modifying, expanding, or eliminating the TRID Rule, among other questions," the bureau said in a press release. TRID — sometimes called the “know before you owe” rule — was mandated by Dodd-Frank. The rule's purpose was to ensure that homebuyers are given clear and factual information about the terms and costs of their home loans. The rule mandates that, among other things, borrowers receive an estimate on the home loan terms, loan size and closing costs at least three days prior to closing. Mortgage originators and lenders have complained about several aspects of the rule since it became effective. One of their concerns has to do with so-called "black holes" — when deadlines for revising upfront and closing costs overlap, forcing originators to absorb added costs because of the rigid three-day deadline. The CFPB tried to address that issue in April with a new policy effectively allowing originators to charge borrowers for changes in closing costs if the original estimates were provided in good faith. But some critics said that revision could create confusion for borrowers or could allow originators to provide estimates early in the lending process when certain details of closing costs may not be knowable.
Retired Man's Home Seized Over $8.41 In Unpaid Property Taxes -Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? When an 83-year old retiree paid his property taxes late, he miscalculated the interest owed to the county government. All told, he was $8.41 short. Yes you read that correctly, i.e. less than nine dollars.So the county seized the home over that trivial amount.Then they sold the man’s home at auction for $24,500, even though the house was worth about $128,000. But the county didn’t just keep the $8.41 they were owed. They kept the entire $24,500. Although this was the most egregious case, the man found out he was far from alone.The county has been systematically robbing homeowners, selling their homes, and keeping the proceeds over much smaller tax bills than the homes are worth. In case you’re wondering, the county in question is Oakland County, Michigan, which is part of the Detroit area, and one of the most fiscally vanquished municipalities in the country. This highlights a very important lesson: when governments are broke, they will plunder the wealth of their citizens in order to make ends meet, even if it means stealing a retired man’s home. Click here for the full story.
National Home Bidding-War Rate Collapses To Decade Low - A new Redfin report specifies that only 10% of all offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their homebuying clients faced a bidding war in October, down from 39% the same time last year and now at a 10-year low. Not even a plunge in mortgage rates this year could attract new buyers. Three of the top metropolitan area for bidding wars in October were located in California -- San Francisco (34.8%), San Jose (20.5%), and San Diego (15.6%). On the East Coast, most of the bidding wars across major cities were non-existent, except for Philadelphia (13.8%). The rate of bidding wars across major metro areas in California have collapsed in the last 12 to 16 months. For example, 50% to 85% of all Redfin transactions in San Francisco from 2017 through 2Q18 faced fierce competition among buyers. But as soon as summer rolled around, demand plunged, and so did the bids, as the bidding war rate crashed to near zero by 1Q19 -- but has since bounced back to 34.8% in October. During the same period, the national bidding war rate plummeted, now making a new 10-year low at 10.1% last month. Seattle's bidding war among homebuyers was just 8.8% of all transactions in October, well below the 10.1% national average, and also at a 10-year low.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October -- From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Climb 1.9% in October - Existing-home sales rose in October, a slight recovery from the declines seen in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The four major U.S. regions were split last month, with the Midwest and the South seeing growth, and the Northeast and the West both reporting a drop in sales.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.9% from September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October. Despite lingering regional variances, overall sales are up 4.6% from a year ago (5.22 million in October 2018). Total housing inventory at the end of October sat at 1.77 million units, down approximately 2.7% from September and 4.3% from one year ago (1.85 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.1 months in September and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in October 2018.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in October (5.46 million SAAR) were up 1.9% from last month, and were 4.6% above the October 2018 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.77 million in October from 1.82 million in September. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 4.3% year-over-year in October compared to October 2018. Months of supply decreased to 3.9 months in October. This was close to the consensus forecast. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low.
Comments on October Existing Home Sales – McBride - Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October. A few key points:
1) Existing home sales were up 4.6% year-over-year (YoY) in October. This was the fourth consecutive YoY increase - following 16 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in sales
2) Inventory is still low, and was down 4.3% year-over-year (YoY) in October. 3) Year-to-date sales are down about 1.1% compared to the same period in 2018. On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.28 million in 2019. Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown. The comparisons will be easier towards in November and December of this year, and with lower mortgage rates, sales will probably finish the year unchanged or even up from 2018. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).Sales NSA in October (463,000, red column) were above sales in October 2018 (446,000, NSA), and were the highest for October since 2006. Overall this was a solid report.
Student-loan debt and skyrocketing housing prices have become so bad that more millennials are planning to rent forever -Just over 12% of millennial renters plan to "always rent" — more than the 10.7% that said the same last year, a new Apartment List survey found. The survey polled more than 10,000 millennial renters in the US.The majority of this cohort — 69% — said it's because they can't afford to buy a home. Affordability is why many millennials have been renting longer and buying later than previous generations.Housing prices have been climbing steadily — first-time homebuyers are paying 39% more than they were nearly 40 years ago, according to Student Loan Hero. And only 13% of millennial renters across the US will be able to afford a traditional 20% down payment within the next five years, the Apartment List survey found. That explains why most survey respondents said the biggest financial obstacle to homeownership is saving up for a down payment. Nearly half of millennial renters who want to buy a home haven't even begun saving for a down payment, and only 13% have more than $10,000 saved. Millennials are struggling to afford a home not just because of increased housing costs, but because they're burdened with other expenses, like student-loan debt. Of millennial renters aspiring to own a home, Apartment List found that 58% of those with a college degree and no student debt have an average of $18,914 saved for a down payment. That average drops to $8,200 for 50% of those who have a college degree and student debt. Saving up for a home can also be hard to do when shelling out money for climbing rent prices in the meantime. In 1960, the median gross rent was $71, or $588 in today's dollars. The current median US rent is $1,700.
Housing Starts increased to 1.314 Million Annual Rate in October -- From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000. This is 3.8 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,266,000 and is 8.5 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,211,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 936,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised September figure of 918,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 362,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 909,000; this is 3.2 percent above the revised September figure of 881,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 505,000 in October. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were up in October compared to September. Multi-family starts were up 10.7% year-over-year in October. Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and has been mostly moving sideways the last several years. Single-family starts (blue) increased in October, and were up 8.2% year-over-year. Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in October were close to expectations and revisions were minor.
Comments on October Housing Starts – Bill McBride - Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.314 Million Annual Rate in OctoberTotal housing starts in October were at expectations and revisions to prior months were minor. The housing starts report showed starts were up 3.8% in October compared to September, and starts were up 8.5% year-over-year compared to October 2018. Single family starts were up 8.2% year-over-year, and multi-family starts were up 10.7% YoY. This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red). Starts were up 3.8% in October compared to October 2018. Year-to-date, starts are down 0.6% compared to the same period in 2018. Last year, in 2018, starts were strong early in the year, and then fell off in the 2nd half - so the comparisons in November and December will be easy. My guess was starts would be down slightly year-over-year in 2019 compared to 2018, but nothing like the YoY declines we saw in February and March. Now it seems likely starts will be up in 2019 compared to 2018. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - but turned down, and has moved sideways recently. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts. As I've been noting for several years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us - multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR). The second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions.
New Residential Building Permits: 1.461M in October - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.461M was an increase from 1.391M in September and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.385M. Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent (±2.1 percent) above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 909,000; this is 3.2 percent (±1.0 percent) above the revised September figure of 881,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 505,000 in October. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included. Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We've added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend. The extreme volatility of this monthly indicator is the rationale for paying more attention to its 6-month moving average than to its noisy monthly change. Over the complete data series, the absolute MoM average percent change is 4.4%. The MoM range minimum is -24.0% and the maximum is 33.9%. For visual confirmation of the volatility, here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change since 1990.
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November" - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 70 in November, down from 71 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Builder Confidence Holds Firm in November Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn. “In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all builders surveyed have reported positive buyer traffic conditions.” “We have seen substantial year-over-year improvement following the housing affordability crunch of late 2018, when the HMI stood at 60,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, lot shortages remain a serious problem, particularly among custom builders. Builders also continue to grapple with other affordability headwinds, including a lack of labor and regulatory constraints.” … The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 76 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped one point to 53. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a two-point gain to 62, the West was up three points to 81 and the South moved one point higher to 74. The Midwest remained unchanged at 58.This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.
AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Rebounds After Two Down Months" - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Rebounds After Two Down Months Following a two month decline in demand for design services, architecture billings got a bounce in October, according to a new report released today from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score in October is 52.0, up from the September score of 49.7. This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). During October, both the new project inquiries and design contracts scores moderated from September but remained positive, posting scores of 57.9 and 52.9 respectively.“Although ongoing uncertainty over the direction of economic growth persists, a strong stock market and growing payrolls at U.S. businesses continue to generate more construction projects,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “With most regional and sector billing scores at architecture firms improving from the previous month, we’re seeing a bit of a rebound from disappointing levels of design activity in recent months.”• Regional averages: South (55.5); West (51.3); Midwest (49.9); Northeast (47.2)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (55.2); multi-family residential (54.0); institutional (49.9); commercial/industrial (49.3)
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Slightly Year-over-year -- From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 9 November:The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 3-9 November 2019, according to data from STR.
In comparison with the week of 4-10 November 2018, the industry recorded the following:
• Occupancy: +0.1% to 69.0%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +1.9% to US$132.66
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +1.9% to US$91.53
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2019, dash light blue is 2018 (record year), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).Occupancy has been solid in 2019, and close to-date compared to the previous 4 years. However occupancy will be lower this year than in 2018 (the record year).Seasonally, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline into the winter.
US freight volumes decline amid mixed economic signals - United States freight shipments have declined for 11 consecutive months, eliminating the volume surge of 2018 and flattening the “Trump Bump,” according to the latest Cass Freight Index report. The shipments index dropped 5.9 percent year over year in October and fell 3.9 percent from September. But the index also dropped 0.1 percent from October 2017.“The shipments index has gone from ‘warning of a potential slowdown’ to ‘signaling an economic contraction,’” Donald Broughton, founder and managing partner of Broughton Capital and author of the Cass Freight Index, said in the report. Broughton singles out the US trade war with China and disputes with other countries as the main factor in the “retrenchment.”“We see it as an illustration of the highly stimulative effect of the corporate tax cut being completely abolished by the prosperity-destroying effect of the tariffs and ongoing trade dispute,” Broughton said. “Unfortunately, 2019 shipment volume has not only been below 2018 every month, but in October it has fallen below 2017 and 2014 levels.” The Cass Shipper Expenditures Index, a measure of the change in freight rates, dropped 1.9 percent from September and was down 4.1 percent year over year in October. The expenditures index was still 7.4 percent higher than in October 2017, indicating that substantial contract rate gains carriers made in 2018 haven’t entirely eroded, unlike spot truckload rates. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measure of per-mile truckload rates before fuel surcharges and accessorials, was down 2.5 percent year over year in October — its third month in negative territory, although rates increased 1.4 percent sequentially. The Cass Intermodal Pricing Index rose 0.4 percent year over year and 3.9 percent from September.
Rail Recession- U.S. Carloads Continue Collapse As Manufacturing Slows - Nowhere is the slowdown in the U.S. economy more obvious than in places like Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck orders and rail traffic. We already wrote about how Class 8 orders continued to fall in October and new data the American Association of Railroads (AAR) now shows that last week's rail traffic and intermodal container usage both plunged. The AAR reported total carloads for the week ended Nov. 9 came in at 248,905, down 5.1% compared with the same week in 2018. U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 266,364 containers and trailers, down 6.7% compared to 2018, according to Railway Age. One of the 10 carload segments that posted an increase YOY was grain, which was barely up 342 carloads to 21,855. Coal was down 9,577 carloads, to 75,180; miscellaneous carloads were down 843 carloads, to 10,944; and petroleum and petroleum products were down 741 carloads, to 12,617. So far in 2019, railroads have reported total volume of 11,337,628 carloads, which is down 4.3% from the year prior. The year's 11,988,234 intermodal units are down 4.6% for the year and total combined traffic was down 4.4% to 23,325,862 carloads. The numbers for North America in total were also lower. North American rail volume for the week ending November 9, 2019, on 12 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 352,176 carloads, down 4.8% compared with the same week last year, and 352,712 intermodal units, down 6.5% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 704,888 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.6%. North American rail volume for the first 45 weeks of 2019 was 31,852,518 carloads and intermodal units, down 3.4% compared with 2018.
Philly Fed Manufacturing shows "Overall Growth in November" --From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indexes Suggest Overall Growth in November Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The indicator for general activity increased, but the new orders, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month. The survey’s future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity rose 5 points this month to 10.4, after decreasing 6 points in October. This was slightly above the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in November" -- From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Modestly in November: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly in November, however expectations for future activity rebounded moderately. “Regional factory activity continued to edge down in November, driven again by deterioration in durable goods production,” said Wilkerson. “But considerable more firms expect to add workers than reduce their workforce over the next year.” ... The month-over-month composite index was -3 in November, equal to -3 in October, and similar to -2 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Another weak regional manufacturing report.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 227,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 225,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 217,000 to 217,500. The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
A yellow flag from temporary hiring - In the conclusion of my latest Weekly Indicators post, I wrote that, except for temporary staffing, I didn’t see any signs of weakness spreading out beyond manufacturing and import/export. Manufacturing, as measured by industrial production, has been in a shallow recession all year. By contrast, the consumer - 70% of the economy - continues to do ok, boosted by lower interest rates for mortgages and somnolent gas prices. Since there isn’t any other economic news today, let’s take a look at that one yellow flag - temporary hiring. As I’ve pointed out each month for the past few months, each monthly jobs report this year has started out with a nice, positive number for temporary jobs. But then, with one exception, the number gets revised downward, sometimes substantially, and usually into negative territory. My weekly check on this is the Staffing Index from the American Staffing Association. And that number has been getting progressively worse. Here is the most recent number, from last week (-7.02% YoY): Now let’s compare with the worst number during the 2015-16 slowdown that was centered on the Oil Patch (-5.5% YoY): Finally, here is the 2007-08 comparison: The YoY comparison declined below -7% in July 2008. By that time, the economy as a whole had already been in a recession for over half a year (although Q2 GDP was positive, and was less than -0.1% away from its Q4 2007 peak). Finally, let’s take a look at hiring (via JOLTS), firing (initial claims, averaged monthly and inverted), and the unemployment rate (also inverted) for the past five years: Hiring has slowly trended higher, while new jobless claims are essentially flat. Presumably as a result, the unemployment rate has been ticking slowly lower. I would expect a decrease in hiring to show up very quickly, and maybe first, in a decline in new temporary hires. But so far the yellow flag in temporary staffing has not shown up in the wider data, and in particular hiring.
BLS: October Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Maine and South Carolina -- From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in October in 4 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 44 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eight states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 3 states had increases, and 39 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, was little changed over the month and from October 2018. ... Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in October, 2.2 percent. The rates in Alabama (2.8 percent), California (3.9 percent), Maine (2.8 percent), and South Carolina (2.6 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.2 percent.This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976.At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue). Note that Alaska is at a series low (since 1976). Two states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska and Mississippi. A total of nine states are at a series low: Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Maine, South Carolina, and Texas.
US Steel job cuts continue as it lays off workers in Indiana - An undisclosed number of nonunion employees have been cut at US Steel’s Gary Works in Gary, Indiana and its Midwest plant in Portage, Indiana. The salaried workers held managerial and professional positions and the layoffs were implemented as a part of CEO David Burritt’s restructuring plan, which aims to save $200 million in operating costs by 2022. It is not known if the corporation will retain enough employees in the state to meet the threshold for state economic incentives for its $750 million investment into the Gary Works mill. The Indiana Economic Development Corp. requires US Steel to retain a minimum of 3,875 employees in the state to qualify for the $10 million incentive package, in addition to the $35 million package received from the City of Gary over a 25-year period.In order to maintain these incentives while maximizing profit at the expense of the working class, US Steel may plan to replace those jobs with low-paid temps and contract workers earning few if any benefits.The mill is a linchpin of the economy in the impoverished Gary region that has suffered from decades of deindustrialization at the hands of the corporate oligarchs—with the poverty rate in Gary standing at 35.8 percent, more than twice the rate of the US as a whole.US Steel will also lay off half of its 300 workers at its East Chicago Tin Mill this month and the number of nonunion and union layoffs there remains uncertain. Previously, Gary Works employed a total of 3,800 while the company has not released any information of the total number of workers at the Midwest Plant before the layoffs.East Chicago Tin will be idled this year with no date announced for reopening. Due to a decreased demand for tin products globally, some metals industry analysts expect the plant to shut down entirely, which will further devastate the working class in the impoverished area.
UAW President Gary Jones resigns as GM lawsuit charges that UAW is a “controlled enterprise” of Fiat Chrysler - United Auto Workers President Gary Jones resigned Wednesday afternoon, just months after he was implicated by federal prosecutors for embezzling over $1.5 million in UAW funds. The corruption scandal continues to engulf the UAW even as it seeks to push through another pro-company contract on 47,000 autoworkers at Fiat Chrysler. Jones’ resignation came after the UAW International Executive Board, in an act of damage control, took measures to remove him and Region 5 Director Vance Pearson from their positions and expel them. In a unanimous vote, the UAW’s top leadership body charged the two with submitting false expense reports and concealing other information in violation of the UAW’s “Ethical Practices Code” and federal labor laws. It also came just hours after General Motors filed an extraordinary lawsuit against rival Fiat Chrysler, which charged that years of bribes that FCA executives paid to UAW officials had resulted in “unfair advantages” for the Italian automaker that cost GM billions of dollars. Jones’ attorney said the UAW president had decided to step down because remaining in office would “only distract the union from its core mission to improve the lives of its members and their families.” As of this writing, the UAW has not issued any official statement on the resignation. The legal net has been tightening around Jones since FBI agents raided his suburban Detroit home in August, seizing $32,000 in cash from his garage. Last month, Jones was identified as the unnamed “Union Official A” in the indictment of close associate Edward “Nick” Robinson from Missouri-based Region 5, which Jones previously ran. Though not charged, Jones was implicated in the embezzlement and money laundering scheme, which involved submitting false expense vouchers to the national union headquarters and UAW political action committees for “conference expenses,” while spending the money on luxury villas, golf outings, expensive meals and $3,750 bottles of cognac for UAW officials in Palm Springs, California. In the indictment, federal prosecutors cite a meeting between Jones, Pearson and Robinson and include direct quotes attributed to Jones, likely recorded by a hidden microphone. The UAW president told his subordinates to destroy incriminating evidence and offered to give one of Robinson’s family members a sham job if he would take sole responsibility for the criminal activity. Three days after the release of the indictment, which also implicates former UAW President Dennis Williams, Jones took a leave of absence.
American Airlines Staff Begging Not To Fly On Boeing 737 Max Planes - While Boeing continues trying to repair its 737 Max plane and its image with Wall Street, there's one group it certainly hasn't won back over yet: American Airlines flight attendants. Flight attendants for American are "fearful" of flying in the 737 Max again, even with the plane nearing regulatory approval to fly again, according to RT. The planes have been grounded for months now, following two fatal crashes that left over 340 people dead. The Association of Professional Flight Attendants (APFA) says they want to be fully versed on what has changed with the plane and why it is safe to fly in again. The union is seeking information from Boeing, US regulators, American Airlines, the carrier’s pilots and others in order to make a final decision. APFA President Lori Bassani said: “I hear from some flight attendants every day and they are begging me to not make them go back up in that airplane. We want to know without a doubt that it’s safe to fly.”Meanwhile, Boeing said this week that the FAA is on track to certify its redesigned flight-control software by the middle of December, at which point it could start delivering new Max jets to the world's airlines. Last week, American Airlines said it was going to keep the 737 Max off of its schedules until at least next March. Previously, the company had said it was going to resume flights by January. American plans on making safety "exhibition flights" to prove to customers the jets are safe, with executives, workers and reporters on board, before returning the Max to commercial service. Meanwhile FAA Chief Stephen Dickson, who was personally lobbied by Boeing's CEO to clear the plane on an accelerated timeline, put out a video last Friday where he told his staff to resist "pressure" to clear the plane quickly.
Even With Better Education, Millennials Earn 20% Less Than Baby Boomers, Study Finds - The generational wealth gap has widened to historic levels, according to a recent study comparing millennial earnings to older generations', according to CNBC. When adjusted for inflation, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at the same stage in their careers, according to the study, entitled "the Emerging Millennial Wealth Gap". Median incomes for workers aged 18 to 34 are way down from their levels in the 1980s. The disparity is nothing new: Other studies have arrived at a similar conclusion. Despite being the most well-educated generation of all time (aside from Gen Z, probably), millennials earn comparatively less than their older peers did during similar periods. Nearly 40% of millennials have at least a bachelor's degree, compared with 25% of baby boomers, and 30% of Gen Xers during the same period.The lower wages will likely lead to long-term problems for millennials, the experts said. Already, many millennials are struggling with jobs that are either inconsistent, like contract or freelance work (which doesn't offer benefits), or don't pay enough. This is already having a serious impact on their ability to build wealth, since most millennials still can't afford basics like their own home. For prior generations, homes were important tools for building wealth, in addition to providing a place to live.Among young families, households headed by someone under the age of 35 in 2016 had an average net worth of $10,900, roughly half the level from 1995. Much of this disparity stems from the Great Recession. Those who entered the workforce in its aftermath came in with low wages, leaving them at a career disadvantage. Many are also struggling with the $1.4 trillion-plus pile of student loan debt that has been accumulated by American students. For many, student debt payments make building wealth and buying homes unthinkable.
Latina workers have to work nearly 11 months into 2019 to be paid the same as white non-Hispanic men in 2018 - November 20 is Latina Equal Pay Day, the day that marks how long into 2019 a Latina would have to work in order to be paid the same wages her white male counterpart was paid last year. That’s nearly 11 months longer, meaning that Latina workers had to work all of 2018 and then this far—to November 20!—into 2019 to get paid the same as white non-Hispanic men did in 2018. Put another way, a Latina would have to be in the workforce for 57 years to earn what a non-Hispanic white man would earn after 30 years in the workforce. Unfortunately, Hispanic women are subject to a double pay gap—an ethnic pay gap and a gender pay gap. And, this pay gap widened over previous year when it “only” took until November 1 for Hispanic women catch up to non-Hispanic men.The date November 20 is based on the finding that Hispanic women workers are paid 53 cents on the white non-Hispanic male dollar, using the 2017 March Current Population Survey for median annual earnings for full-time, year-round workers. We get similar results when we look at average hourly wages for all workers (not just full-time workers) using the monthly Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group for 2018—which show Hispanic women workers being paid 56 cents on the white male dollar.This gap narrows—but not dramatically—when we control for education, years of experience, and location by regression-adjusting the differences between workers. Using this method, we find that, on average, Latina workers are paid only 66 cents on the dollar relative to white non-Hispanic men. The wage gap between Latina workers and white non-Hispanic male workers persists across the wage distribution, within occupations, and among those with the same amount of education. Figure A shows average wages for Hispanic women and white non-Hispanic men at different levels of educational attainment. At every level of education, white non-Hispanic men are paid more than Hispanic women. What’s also clear from the data is that further education does not close their sizable wage gaps with white non-Hispanic men. As Hispanic women increase their educational attainment, their pay gap with white men generally increases: white non-Hispanic men with only a college degree are paid, on average, $6.81 more than Latinas with an advanced degree!
Cops Put GPS Tracker On Man’s Car, Charge Him With Theft For Removing It -- The case began in July 2018, when the Warrick County Sheriff's Office got a warrant to attach a GPS tracking device to Derek Heuring's car. Information from a confidential informant had led them to believe that Heuring was using the vehicle to sell meth. The GPS device transmitted data for a little more than a week. Then it stopped. Officers suspected Heuring had discovered and removed it. After waiting another 10 days to see if it would start working again, detectives applied for a warrant to search Heuring's home and a nearby property belonging to Heuring's parents. US law requires law enforcement to show probable cause that a crime had been committed before engaging in a search. In this case, police said they suspected that Heuring had committed the crime of theft by taking the GPS device.Police did find the tracking device. They also found methamphatamine and drug paraphernalia—evidence that police say show that Heuring had been dealing drugs. So Heuring was charged both with drug dealing and with theft of the GPS device. At trial, Heuring's legal team argued that the search had been illegal because the police didn't have probable cause to believe their client had committed theft. The defense pointed out that the device could have fallen off the car by accident or simply malfunctioned.Even if Heuring did take the device off the vehicle, he couldn't have known for sure that it belonged to the government. It wasn't exactly labeled as the property of the Warrick County Sheriff's Office. Most important, it's not clear that taking an unwanted device off your car is theft—even if you know who it belongs to. With the case now at the state Supreme Court, the stakes are high. If Heuring can show that the police lacked probable cause to search his house, he could get all of the evidence gathered in the search thrown out—not only evidence of GPS device theft, but evidence of drug dealing, too.
Denver Business Owner Fined For Not Cleaning Up Vagrant Poo And Used Needles - The city of Denver fined a local business owner after he and his staff refused to continue cleaning up after homeless people behind his building, according to CBS Denver. "There's food, trash, drug deals," said Jawaid Bayzar, who added "In the alley we get, ya know, the defacation, drug needles, prostitution" behind his internet company, Forethought.net. One night an employee was sitting in his car when someone smashed the window and tried to stab him, according to Bayzar. And when Bayzar and his crew stopped cleaning up the constant hazardous mess left by the vagrants, telling CBS he's not equipped to deal with it, Denver fined him. "If the city’s not going to enforce laws against trespassing, or camping, or public defecation and just make me bare the cost of these problems that’s just not right," he told CBS4. Denver officials disagree, saying that if it's happening on his property, it's his problem - adding that he's subject to daily citations until the debris is cleaned up. Bayzar is heading to court on Dec. 18 to fight the citation. "I’m going to go to court and do my best to argue that the City’s treatment of this unfair. This is a public crime issue and a public health issue and the city is the organization that’s responsible for that."
Ransomware Bites 400 Veterinary Hospitals Krebs on Security -- National Veterinary Associates (NVA), a California company that owns more than 700 animal care facilities around the globe, is still working to recover from a ransomware attack late last month that affected more than half of those properties, separating many veterinary practices from their patient records, payment systems and practice management software. NVA says it expects to have all facilities fully back up and running normally within the next week. Agoura Hills, Calif.-based NVA bills itself as is the largest private owner of freestanding veterinary hospitals in the United States. The company’s Web site says it currently owns roughly 700 veterinary hospitals and animal boarding facilities in the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.NVA said it discovered the ransomware outbreak on the morning of Sunday, Oct. 27, and soon after hired two outside security firms to investigate and remediate the attack. A source close to the investigation told KrebsOnSecurity that NVA was hit with Ryuk, a ransomware strain first spotted in August 2018 that targets mostly large organizations for a high-ransom return.NVA declined to answer questions about the malware, or whether the NVA paid the ransom demand.“It was ransomware, but we’ve been referring to it as a malware incident,” said Laura Koester, NVA’s chief marketing officer. Koester said because every NVA hospital runs their IT operations as they see fit, not all were affected. More importantly, she said, all of the NVA’s hospitals have remained open and able to see clients (animals in need of care), and access to patient records has been fully restored to all affected hospitals.
California school allegedly throws away student projects on Black Lives Matter - A Sacramento-area school district allegedly threw away students' projects on the Black Lives Matter movement, calling the work too political and inappropriate, according to a new letter from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU). A teacher at Del Paso Manor Elementary School identified as Mr. Madden, assigned a project in September allowing students to create art about causes students at San Juan Unified School District care about and “something they wanted to see change in their school," according to the Thursday letter addressed to Kent Kern, the school district’s superintendent. The assignment followed a lesson plan delivered by a parent volunteer titled “Art can manifest in activism - can manifest in our communities and school.” The parent reportedly addressed immigration and housing rights, reforming financial aid, pay equity, animal rights and the Black Lives Matter movement, according to the letter. Four students then created posters in support of the Black Lives Matter movement, and Madden allegedly threw the posters away and made the students do the assignment over again. He also allegedly banned the parent volunteer from returning to the class. He also reportedly asked the volunteer “whether students were getting shot at the school and demanded answers regarding why a presentation on Black Lives Matter was relevant to Del Paso Manor Elementary.” The school’s principal “backed Mr. Madden by irrationally stating that Black Lives Matter lessons are political statements and therefore off limits for public display,” the ACLU letter states. The letter states that posters and speech about Black Lives Matter are protected speech under California law for the student and the parent volunteer, and the school cannot “single out” the projects. It also states that the school district removing the art is “an impermissible viewpoint restriction.”
Chicago Teachers Unions pushes through austerity contract, paving way for school closures - Last Friday, the Chicago Teachers Union announced the ratification of a new five-year deal for 25,000 Chicago Public Schools (CPS) teachers and support staff. The contract, which continues the underfunding of schools, is the outcome of the CTU’s betrayal of the 11-day strike by educators in the nation’s third-largest school district. The deal meets none of teachers’ central demands and instead phases in inadequate additional staff in some schools over the five-year contract, maintains bloated class sizes, provides no additional prep time and increases out-of-pocket healthcare costs. On average, the six days of lost pay due to the strike is enough to cancel out the miserable three percent wage increase during the first year of the contract. CPS refused to pay teachers for all the strike days and CTU offered no strike pay. In a letter to teachers published Thursday, CTU President Jesse Sharkey admitted that the deal does nothing to stop a new wave of school closures being planned by the administration of Democratic mayor Lori Lightfoot. “The writing is on the wall. We expect the mayor to propose her own round of school closings, hitting neighborhood high schools in Black and Brown communities especially hard.” Combining bureaucratic complacency with contempt for the intelligence of teachers, Sharkey declared, “We won the best contract that we were able to get given the balance of forces that we have.” If the “balance of forces” was stacked against teachers, it wasn’t because they lacked public support. On the contrary, teachers enjoyed widespread support and there was growing sentiment for broadening the strike to other sections of municipal as well as industrial and other private-sector workers. But the “balance of forces” of the corporate and political establishment was strengthened because the CTU and other unions deliberately isolated the strike and colluded with Lightfoot and the Democratic Party to smother the struggle and impose a new round of school closures and austerity measures. It only reluctantly called a strike, and openly pledged to limit it as much as possible. There is little doubt that Sharkey and the rest of the CTU had already signed off on the school closures and called the strike to dissipate social anger.
Longest prison term in college admissions scandal handed out - It was 2018 when former real estate executive Toby MacFarlane’s daughter graduated from USC, a prestigious private university in Los Angeles. She was admitted to the school as a star soccer recruit and graduated four years later, that is, without having ever played any soccer during her time there. "My parents have a hard time attending my soccer matches because our opponent's parents are always making rude remarks about that number 8 player who plays without a care for her body or anyone else's on the field. It is true that I can be a bit intense out there on the field,” she wrote in her 2013 application to USC.It wasn’t her soccer skills that gained her admission to the school but a $200,000 payment sent by her father to William “Rick” Singer, the mastermind behind the college admissions bribery scandal that has rocked the world of higher education since being unveiled earlier this year. It was the Justice Department’s largest-ever college admissions prosecution, leading to dozens of indictments that implicated celebrity parents such as Lori Loughlin and her fashion designer husband, Mossimo Giannulli, as well as actress Felicity Huffman. Huffman was released from prison on Oct. 25 after serving 11 days of a 14-day prison sentence for her crimes that included paying $15,000 to Singer to boost her daughter’s SAT test scores. Macfarlane’s sentence, in contrast to Huffman’s less than two weeks, is the longest ever to be handed down thus far — six months in prison. U.S. District Judge Nathaniel Gorton also sentenced MacFarlane to two years of supervised release, 200 hours of community service and a $150,000 fine, calling him a “thief” for “not once, but twice” taking seats at USC away from more deserving prospective students.
U.S. draws fewer new foreign students for 3rd year [Video] Yahoo News - The number of foreign students coming to colleges and universities in the United States continued to fall last year, according to a new report, but the Trump administration says the drop should be blamed on high tuition costs and not students’ concerns over the country's political atmosphere.
‘It’s Really Refreshing And Relaxing’: College Students Say Ditching Their Smartphones For A Week Changed Their Lives - Nearly two dozen Adelphi University students made it a full week without their cell phones! As CBS2 first told you last week, it was part of a college course intended to break the powerful addiction of smartphones. It was a bold experiment to recognize today’s compulsive relationships with ever present devices. Seven days later, “who’s excited they’re getting their phones back today?” Professor Donna Freitas asked. Gone were the nerves and the shakes. “Everything is perfect right now. I’m having a lot better relationships… it’s a stress free environment no pressure about social media,” Jacob Dannenberg said.“I think it’s really refreshing and relaxing… I was able to fall asleep a lot easier,” student Adrianna Cigliano.They managed to find their way, even without GPS for a week.“I just had to take the same route everywhere,” one student joked.They were also more productive. “Doing homework was 100 percent easier. I got it done faster, I was in the zone,” Cigliano said.Prof. Freitas says it’s important for everyone to assess their addiction.“Are the conveniences worth it because the drawback are pretty significant,” Freitas said. “The fact that no one can focus, that my students can’t sleep… They feel bad about themselves because of social media, the list goes on and on.”
Only 35% Of Young Republicans Comfortable Sharing Political Opinions With Professors -A new Institute of Politics at Harvard University poll released Monday found that only about one-third of young Republicans across the nation feel comfortable sharing their political opinions with their professors. The poll found that only 35 percent of Republicans between the ages of 18 and 29 felt comfortable sharing their political opinions with their college professors, highlighting a severe disparity when compared to Democrats and independents, who polled at 54 percent and 51 percent, respectively, on sharing views with educators. On a press call Monday, Harvard sophomore Cathy Sun, who was involved in the creation of the Institute of Politics poll, noted the disparity, saying “the poll results showed that Republicans are far less likely to feel comfortable sharing their political views with their professor.” The Harvard poll’s results are similar to those found by The College Fix, which reported in September that 73 percent of Republican students have withheld political views in class for fear their grades would suffer.Conducted between October 15 and 28, the poll interviewed 2,075 individuals between the ages of 18 and 29, and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Other results found:
- 16 percent of young Americans think billionaires should not be able to exist in America;
- 38 percent of young Americans support eliminating private health insurance companies so that all Americans receive health care coverage from the federal government;
- 40 percent of all 18- to 29- year olds support dismantling the Electoral College to ensure that the winner of the national popular vote is elected president.
Ivy League Schools Drop Culturally-Biased Standardized-Test Requirement -Two Ivy League universities have announced that many graduate programs will no longer require the traditional standardized Graduate Records Examination testing requirements for applications, citing reasons pertaining to "diversity" and concerns that such tests are "biased" against minority and low-income students. Both Princeton University and Brown University recently announced that they are moving away from standardized testing requirements for graduate admission in the name of creating a more diverse student body.Princeton announced its decision to do away with the standardized test for 14 different graduate programs in September, calling the Graduate Records Examination (GRE) biased against minority groups.Princeton Graduate School associate dean for access, diversity, and inclusion Renita Miller cited a need for "intellectual diversity" within graduate programs, as well as the importance of "demographic diversity." She insists that doing away with the requirement will help Princeton to achieve its goal "to identify, attract and develop the most promising individuals from as many segments of society as possible."“Universities like Princeton have done a good job at expanding and diversifying their undergraduate populations,” Miller added.“If we want to make similar strides on the graduate level, we must find new ways to recruit and enroll graduate students who may be the first in their families to attend college, and from low-income and underrepresented backgrounds.” Brown University announced a similar initiative earlier in October, eliminating GRE requirements for 24 doctoral programs.
No Safety Switch: How Lax Oversight Of Electronic Health Records Puts Patients At Risk - In fall 2009, several dozen of the best minds in health information technology huddled at a hotel outside Washington, D.C., to discuss potential dangers of an Obama White House plan to spend billions of tax dollars computerizing medical records. The health data geeks trusted that transitioning from paper to electronic records would cut down on medical errors, help identify new cures for disease and give patients an easy way to track their health care histories. But after two days of discussions, the group warned that few safeguards existed to protect the public from possible consequences of rolling out the new technology so quickly. Because this software tracks the medicines people take and their vital signs, even a tiny error or omission, or a doctor’s inability to access the file quickly, can be a matter of life or death. The experts at that September 2009 meeting, mainly members of the American Medical Informatics Association, or AMIA, agreed that safety should be a top priority as federal officials poured more than $30 billion into subsidies to wire up medical offices and hospitals nationwide. The group envisioned creating a national databank to track reports of deaths, injuries and near misses linked to issues with the new technology. It never happened. Instead, plans for putting patient safety first — and for building a comprehensive injury reporting and reviewing system — have stalled for nearly a decade, because manufacturers of electronic health records (EHRs), health care providers, federal health care policy wonks, academics and Congress have either blocked the effort or fought over how to do it properly, an ongoing investigation by Fortune and Kaiser Health News shows.
The most remote emergency room: Life and death in rural America WaPo — A flashing red light summoned Dr. Brian Skow to his third emergency of the afternoon, and he hurried to a desk in a suburban office building. He sat in front of an oversize computer monitor, which showed a live video feed from inside a hospital room in eastern Montana. Two nurses were leaning over a patient on a stretcher, checking for a pulse, and squeezing oxygen out of a bag and into the patient’s lungs. “I’m Doctor Skow,” he said, waving into a camera attached to his computer, introducing himself as the presiding emergency physician even though he was seated more than 700 miles away. “How can we help you today?” “We have a female patient, comatose and unresponsive,” one of nurses in Montana said. The nurse was short of breath, and she looked up at the camera mounted to the wall of the exam room as she attached monitors to the patient’s chest. “She’s a known diabetic. Blood sugar over 600. I — I don’t really know. I haven’t seen a whole lot of this.” “You’re doing great,” Skow said. “We’ll walk through it together. That’s why we’re here.” As hospitals and physicians continue to disappear from rural America at record rates, here is the latest attempt to fill a widening void: a telemedicine center that provides remote emergency care for 179 hospitals across 30 states. Physicians for Avera eCare work out of high-tech cubicles instead of exam rooms. They wear scrubs to look the part of traditional doctors on camera, even though they never directly see or touch their patients. They respond to more than 15,000 emergencies each year by using remote-controlled cameras and computer screens at what has become rural America’s busiest emergency room, which is in fact a virtual ER located in a suburban industrial park. At the cubicle to Skow’s left, another doctor was examining a head injury in Kansas. To his right, a physician monitored a possible heart attack at a critical-access hospital in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Skow used a remote control to move the high-resolution camera in Montana, zooming in to check the patient’s pupils for dilation and using a microphone to listen for breathing sounds.
Humans put into suspended animation for first time - Doctors have put humans into a state of suspended animation for the first time in a groundbreaking trial that aims to buy more time for surgeons to save seriously injured patients. The process involves rapidly cooling the brain to less than 10C by replacing the patient’s blood with ice-cold saline solution. Typically the solution is pumped directly into the aorta, the main artery that carries blood away from the heart to the rest of the body. Known formally as emergency preservation and resuscitation, or EPR, the procedure is being trialled on people who sustain such catastrophic injuries that they are in danger of bleeding to death and who suffer a heart attack shortly before they can be treated. The patients, who are often victims of stabbings or shootings, would normally have less than a 5% chance of survival. Samuel Tisherman, at the University of Maryland, in Baltimore, described the trial at a recent symposium held by the New York Academy of Sciences. He said at least one patient had had the procedure but did not elaborate on whether that patient or any others had survived. The first time the team performed the process was “a little surreal”, he told New Scientist magazine.
Report: Sacklers using fake doctors, false marketing to sell OxyContin in China -The mega-rich family behind the OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma is back to selling its highly addictive pain-killer with underhanded tactics and deceptive advertising—this time in China, via its international company, Mundipharma. That’s all according to a searing new investigation by the Associated Press. The Sackler family, which owns both Purdue and Mundipharma, is embroiled in litigation in the United States over its alleged role in sparking the country’s epidemic of opioid abuse and overdoses. Thousands of plaintiffs—many state and local governments—claim that Purdue and the Sacklers misled patients, doctors, and regulators on the addictiveness of their drugs, aggressively marketed them, and wooed doctors into over-prescribing them. While Purdue has since declared bankruptcy and stopped promoting OxyContin in the US, the Sacklers seem to be employing the same practices in China.Based on documents and interviews with multiple Mundipharma representatives in China, the AP investigation found that reps were at times posing as doctors, providing debunked information that its long-acting opioids are safe and less addictive, and even illegally copying private medical records of patients to inform sales tactics. When an AP reporter informed one of the Mundipharma reps that some of the marketing information was incorrect, she replied: “I’m shocked... Why after more than 10 years would they still do the same thing and go against the laws and regulations of society?”
Report Finds China Still Harvesting Organs From Political Dissidents, Minorities - Fewer than five years after China said it had finally ended the controversial practice of involuntary organ "donations", research published this week found a disturbing pattern in the data on organ transplants that China submits to international regulators, according to the Guardian. The research found that the Chinese government may have been "systematically falsifying" its organ donation numbers, raising renewed concerns over whether Beijing is still using executed prisoners and other forced donors for transplants for wealthy Chinese. In 2015, China publicly promised it would no longer source organs from executed prisoners, who previously provided most of the transplanted organs in China. But a study led by Australian National University PhD student Matthew Robertson that was published in the BMC Medical Ethics journal on Friday claims Chinese-government supplied datasets on organ donations show "highly compelling evidence they are being falsified." Using statistical forensics on the datasets, researchers found the numbers of organs reportedly transplanted almost perfectly matched the quadratic formula. "When you take a close look at the numbers of organs apparently collected they almost match this artificial equation point for point, year in, year out. They’re too neat to be true,” Robertson said. "These figures don’t appear to be real data from real donations. They’re numbers generated using an equation. It is difficult to imagine how this model could have been arrived at by mere chance, raising the distinct possibility that it was intended to deceive." The paper continued by arguing that China’s organ transplant industry was too opaque, and that the sources of organs has always been difficult to trace, which doesn't exactly instill confidence. “Rather than the solely prisoner-based organ transplant system of years past, or the untarnished voluntary system promised by officials, the available evidence indicates in our view that China has a complex hybrid transplant program: voluntary donations, incentivized by large cash payments, are apparently used alongside nonvoluntary donors who are marked down as citizen donors.”
We’ve Found a Serious New Health Risk to Human Spaceflight -We're still learning about the potential effect that extended periods spent in space could have on the human body. Now a new health threat has been identified, one which could put lives at risk on long journeys through the cosmos.The problem lies in the internal jugular vein (IJV), a major blood vessel running down the neck from the brain. A study of 11 astronauts who spent time on the International Space Station (ISS) found that six of them had developed stagnant or backwards blood flow in this particular vein, within a period of just 50 days. One crew member was found to have developed thrombosis, or blockage in the internal jugular vein, the first time that this has been recorded as a result of spaceflight.According to the team behind the new findings, this issue needs to be investigated before we start sending astronauts on long trips to Mars. It's not yet clear just what the consequences of this kind of thrombosis might be, but the implications could be severe and perhaps even fatal. "Exposure to a weightless environment during spaceflight results in a chronic headward blood and tissue fluid shift compared with the upright posture on Earth, with unknown consequences to cerebral venous outflow," write the researchers in their published paper.Down here on Earth of course, gravity takes care of the job of pulling blood down from the head to the rest of the body – it's one of the reasons you'd start feeling very strange if you stood on your hands for an extended period of time.Up in the microgravity environment of the ISS, it's a different story – and bloodflow issues aren't the only health risks we need to worry about. "Headward fluid shifts during prolonged weightlessness result in facial puffiness, decreased leg volume, increased stroke volume, and decreased plasma volume," write the researchers.
Medicines pose global environmental risk, experts warn - (AFP) - Residues from billions of doses of antibiotics, painkillers and antidepressants pose a significant risk to freshwater ecosystems and the global food chain, a new analysis said Thursday. There are growing fears that the unchecked use of antibiotics in both medicine and agriculture will have adverse effects on the environment and on human health. When animals and humans ingest medicines, up to 90 percent of active ingredients are excreted back into the environment. Many medicines are simply discarded -- in the United States alone an estimated one third of the four billion drugs prescribed each year ends up as waste. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) compared data on concentrations of pharmaceutical residue in water samples worldwide as well as prescribing trends and water purification regulations in various countries. One study cited in its report estimates that 10 percent of all pharmaceuticals are potentially harmful to the environment -- including hormones, painkillers and antidepressants. The OECD said that antibiotic use for livestock is predicted to rocket by more than two thirds in the next decade, stoking concerns over antibiotic resistance. Human prescriptions are also set to drastically increase, according to the report. "We're seeing constant engineering of new pharmaceuticals and seeing clinical practices evolve to include recommendations of earlier treatment and higher doses," said the lead report author Hannah Leckie. Another study cited said "extremely high" concentrations of pharmaceutical products had already been detected in water ways in China, India, Israel, South Korea and the United States. In Britain alone, ethinyloestradiol, diclofenac, ibuprofen, propranolol and antibiotics are now present in the run-off of 890 wastewater treatment plants at high enough levels to cause "adverse environmental effects", according to another study.
DARPA Seeks Militarized Microbes So They Can Spread Genetically-Modified Bacteria - The Pentagon’s DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) wants to be able to spread genetically modified bacteria as “explosives sensors.” The United States government could very well be looking into ways to militarize microbes. The Pentagon has teamed up with Raytheon for this project, which seems like it should come straight out of a dystopian science fiction story. The government wants to develop a system capable of delivering genetically modified bacteria underground, according to a report by RT. Initiated by DARPA, the same agency that led programs to create telekinetic super soldiers and weaponized robotic insects, the project seeks to “program two bacterial strains to monitor ground surfaces for explosive materials,” defense contractor Raytheon said in a joint press release with the Worcester Polytechnic Institute. So the genetically modified bacteria are for your own good! “We already know that some bacteria can be programmed to be very good at detecting explosives, but it’s harder underground,” said Raytheon researcher Allison Taggart. “We’re investigating how to transport the reporting bacteria to the required depth underground.” Though the Pentagon claims it only plans to use the system for “defensive” purposes only, some may find the idea of militarized microbes off-putting while conjuring apocalyptic scenarios of a runaway genetically engineered superbug.
Measles Outbreak in Samoa Kills 6. Schools Closed. State of Emergency Declared - The Pacific Island nation of Samoa declared a state of emergency this week, closed all of its schools and limited the number of public gatherings allowed after a measles outbreak has swept across the country of just 200,000 people, according to Reuters.In declaring the health emergency, officials said they were anticipating the worst to come, according to a post on Facebook, as the New York Times reported.The tiny country that is just south of the equator in the Pacific ocean, half way between New Zealand and Hawaii, has seen at least 716 suspected cases of measles, over 40 percent have required hospitalization. The six deaths were mostly infants under two, according to Reuters.Nearly 100 people remain hospitalized with 15 in intensive care. The National University of Samoa, the island's only university, told students to stay home and indefinitely postponed exams, according to the New Zealand Herald.The government announced that official plans for compulsory measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) immunizations would be published on Monday, according to Deutsche Welle."MMR vaccinations for members of the public who have not yet received a vaccination injection is now a mandatory legal requirement for all of Samoa," it said.Also, on Friday, the Samoan government declared that measles vaccinations would be mandatory. It also planned to limit exposure by prohibiting children under 17 gathering in public or entering medical centers unless they are sick, according to the New York Times.
Third person diagnosed with deadly plague in a week in China | The Independent - A 55-year-old man has been diagnosed with bubonic plague after killing and eating a wild rabbit in northern China, resulting in a further 28 people being put in quarantine, according to health authorities.The case is the third reported example of plague in the country over the past week, adding to two plague cases which were discovered in the capital of Beijing.A statement from the health authority in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region said the man was being treated at a hospital in the city of Huade.It said investigators had learned the patient, who is from Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia, consumed the rabbit on 5 November.Twenty-eight people who had close contact with the man are still under observation but none of them have shown plague symptoms, the statement said. The health authority added that no new cases of plague have been found in the region.On 12 November, two patients from the same area were diagnosed withpneumonic plague in Beijing – although the two incidents are not thought to be related. Pneumonic plague, which is more severe than the bubonic version, is believed to be the type of plague that was mainly responsible for the Black Death in the 1300s. The disease can be fatal in up to 90 per cent of people infected if they do not receive treatment, which primarily involves taking several types of antibiotics.
Botulism feared responsible for India migratory bird deaths - Thousands of birds have died at India's largest inland saltwater lake from suspected botulism, officials said Sunday. The 8,000 carcasses were found over the last few days in and around Rajasthan state's Sambhar Lake, about 80 kilometres (50 miles) from the capital Jaipur. "Veterinary experts from the Rajasthan University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences have indicated that the deaths occurred due to botulism," the state forest department's principal secretary, Sreya Guha, told AFP. Avian botulism, a naturally occurring neurotoxin activated in warm weather by bacteria in silt, is passed along to waterbirds through infected bugs, causing paralysis or death. It is not contagious to humans. The government is awaiting a detailed analysis of the dead birds from the Indian Veterinary Research Institute as well as a report from a southern India laboratory on the water's heavy metal toxicity. Officials suspect the birds had been feeding on maggot-infested carcasses, contributing to their death. Thousands of carcasses have been fished out of the water and buried but there are fears more could be lying on the bed of the lake. A 70-member team had been formed to recover and dispose of the birds over the next few days, a senior government official added. The region around Sambhar Lake, like several other big and small water bodies around India, is an important destination for thousands of domestic and international migratory birds every winter. Bird watchers in the region fear the final toll and impact of the botulism infection will be significantly higher because of the size of the lake ecosystem, local media reports said.
There Are 2,000 Untested Chemicals in Packaged Foods — and It’s Legal - A major but largely glossed over report by the Environmental Working Group (EWG), an environmental and public health nonprofit based in Washington, DC, shows that thousands of untested chemicals (an estimated 2,000, to be exact) are found in conventional packaged foods purchasable in U.S. supermarkets. And yes, all of them are legal. The extensive collection of permissible additives includes several known or suspected carcinogens, such as synthetic sodium nitrate, found in processed meats and considered probably carcinogenic by the World Health Organization, and butylated hydroxyanisole, also known as BHA, a chemical listed as a cancer-causing chemical by the state of California and found in commonplace items like frozen pepperoni pizza. Other unappealing chemicals are commonly found in our food packaging, such as polypropylene, sulfuric acidand bisphenol A — all of which can have impacts on human health and the environment. How much should consumers panic before their next supermarket trip? "It really depends on what level of risk consumers are comfortable with," said Dawn Undurraga, a nutritionist at EWG and co-author of the study. "The more we learn about what is in conventional foods, the more evidence for concern we accumulate." Independent laboratory tests commissioned by EWG, for example, found glyphosate, a probable carcinogen, in every sample of conventional oats tested. The fact that dangerous chemicals are legal for use in our food is a major public health concern that goes largely unrecognized by the U.S. government. "Unfortunately, our current policy on food additives was written in 1958 and has been completely co-opted by food and chemical companies," Undurraga said. "Additives that are deemed 'Generally Recognized as Safe,' or GRAS, by a food or chemical company or trade association are exempt from the food additive petition process where the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reviews the safety of the additive." Originally, this GRAS exemption was created to cover ingredients widely known to be safe, like vinegar, but with advancements in food science, the provision has been applied to thousands of chemicals. As a result, questionable substances have been allowed into a host of conventional foods. In 2017, EWG joined several other public health groups to file a lawsuit against the FDA in an effort to eliminate the GRAS loophole.
Inhofe: Pelosi insisting on PFAS language in final NDAA - Senate Armed Services Chairman Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) says Speaker Nancy Pelosi is demanding that provisions related to toxic PFAS chemicals be included in the National Defense Authorization Act. Inhofe said Pelosi drew that line in the sand in a memo to senior lawmakers Wednesday. "It says unless we have her PFAS language, she will not bring the bill up for a vote in the House," Inhofe told POLITICO today. "Once you make that statement, you know something is not sellable." Inhofe declined to discuss what specific provisions related to PFAS are sought by Pelosi. Tougher PFAS regulations have been a top priority for House Democrats and a handful of Republicans throughout the negotiations over the defense bill. In a letter last month, 68 House members said they would vote against the defense bill if it did not crack down on PFAS.A House Democratic leadership aide declined to respond directly to Inhofe’s characterization of Pelosi's position.“There are multiple open items outstanding on the NDAA. Negotiations continue,” the aide said. “We are not going to negotiate through the press.” Lawmakers had expressed optimism a tentative deal on NDAA could be reached before the end of the week, and Inhofe said that remained a possibility. “We’re moving right along,” Inhofe told reporters.
Sources: Trump admin delaying action on PFAS cleanups --The Trump administration has been slow-walking efforts to clean up two widely used toxic chemicals that have been linked to health risks around the country, according to two sources close to EPA, a delay that is raising concerns that the Defense Department is having undue influence over a regulation that could cost it billions of dollars. EPA promised in February to issue a rule that would declare the chemicals PFOA and PFOS as hazardous substances under the federal Superfund law — a move that would require expensive cleanups at military bases, factories and other sites contaminated by the chemicals. Two sources close to EPA say agency staff completed work on a proposed version of that rule in September, but it still has not been sent to the White House for review, the next step of the rulemaking process. The delay has raised questions about the Trump administration's willingness to follow through on its action plan for the class of PFAS chemicals , which have been linked to certain cancers, immune problems and preeclampsia, and have been found in the drinking water supplies of communities across the country. And it comes as Defense Department officials and former chemical industry officials have been playing an outsized role in the process. The administration this week reiterated that it plans to release a Superfund rule by the end of this year, but lawmakers eager to see action on the class of PFAS chemicals appear unwilling to give the White House the benefit of the doubt. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told lawmakers this week that she would not bring the annual must-pass defense bill to the floor if it does not include strong PFAS language, according to Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), the Armed Services chairman. An industry source close to the administration said the Superfund rule would likely remain on hold through next year.
EPA rolls back Obama-era chemical safety requirements - EPA on Thursday reversed key portions of a chemical safety rule implemented by the Obama administration in response to the 2013 West, Texas, fertilizer facility explosion that killed 15 people. The Trump administration's final Risk Management Program rule frees companies from mitigation and safety preparation requirements that EPA says will save $87.8 million annually, and it no longer requires the owners of chemical plants, refineries and other industrial facilities to publicly release data on the chemicals they store on site.EPA said the previous rule was targeted too broadly and imposed too high a burden on industry to justify its cost and that it maintained enough of the regulation to protect public safety.“Accident prevention is a top priority of the EPA and this rule promotes improved coordination between chemical facilities and emergency responders, reduces unnecessary regulatory burdens, and addresses security risks associated with previous amendments to the RMP rule,” EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement. The RMP amendments apply to more than 12,500 refineries, chemical plants, agricultural facilities, food and beverage manufacturers and other industrial sites that store certain chemicals. It requires owners to work to reduce the risk of releasing those chemicals into the air. The Obama administration finalized its rule in January 2017, but many provisions had not yet taken effect. The Trump administration's final rule comes afterthirteen attorneys general last month urged EPA against rolling back the rule in the wake of the June Philadelphia refinery disaster, which they said "avoided catastrophic loss of life by the narrowest of margins." Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) was a lead critic of the rule and argued that the public data sharing provisions put facilities at risk of terrorist attacks by revealing details about the chemicals stored at regulated facilities. Inhofe in 2017 even introduced a Congressional Review Act resolution targeting the Obama RMP update, but it failed to advance. Industry also complained about some of the Obama rule’s provisions after the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives in 2016 ruled the West, Texas, disaster was caused by arson — not an accident. That finding in part prompted the Trump administration’s revisions to the rule.
945 Toxic Waste Sites at Risk of Disaster From Climate Crisis - The climate crisis has put at least 945 designated toxic waste sites at severe risk of disaster from escalating wildfires, floods, rising seas and other climate-related disasters, according to a new study from the non-partisan Government Accountability Office (GAO), as the AP reported. The country's most contaminated spots that pose an imminent threat to human health or the environment are designated Superfund sites. That means cleaning them up is a national priority. The EPA has identified more than 500 contaminants at Superfund sites, including arsenic, lead and mercury. However, the GAO found that efforts to secure the toxic waste have weakened as the Trump administration plays down their threat, according to the AP. Senate Democrats responded to the report in a letter to the EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler demanding an explanation for agency leaders' "failure to embrace addressing climate change as a strategic objective," according to the Washington Post. "We believe that EPA's refusal to implement GAO's recommendations could result in real harm to human health and the environment as the effects of climate change become more frequent and intense," the lawmakers wrote to Wheeler, as the Washington Post reported. The GAO report looked at 1,571 Superfund sites and found that six out of 10 are vulnerable to extreme weather caused by the climate crisis. The GAO produced an interactive map that shows each of the 945 vulnerable sites. It is color-coded to show if the site is threatened by wildfires, hurricanes, storm surge, sea-level rise, or coastal and river flooding, as the Verge reported. The study recommended that the EPA start incorporating the climate crisis into its decision making for toxic waste sites and its risk assessments for the Superfund sites. The EPA however has continued to deny the climate crisis as a threat to the Superfund sites, according to the GAO report. The EPA does not include the climate crisis in its agency-wide policies, which stops the EPA from tackling the risks at contaminated sites as the planet heats up and extreme weather events increase in frequency, duration and intensity, as Inside Climate News reported. The EPA issued a statement that was largely dismissive of the report. The statement also managed to avoid mentioning climate change.
2 Million Americans Lack Clean Water Access, Especially Native Americans - Native Americans are disproportionately without access to clean water, according to a new report, "Closing the Water Access Gap in the United States: A National Action Plan," to be released this afternoon, which shows that more than two million Americans do not have access to access to running water, indoor plumbing or wastewater services. The report is the result of a collaboration from two national non-profit groups, DigDeep and the US Water Alliance. It found that 58 out of every 1,000 Native American households lack plumbing, compared with three out of every 1,000 white people. The report noted that an estimated 30 percent of people on the Navajo Nation lack access to running water and must haul water, but local officials report that the actual number may be even higher. "We knew the problem was much bigger, but when we went out to look at the data, it didn't exist," said George McGraw, the founder of DigDeep, a nonprofit that has helped build water systems on the Navajo Nation, asNPR reported. The paper found that many people in the Navajo Nation around Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico had to drive more than 40 miles every few days just to haul home water for drinking, cooking and bathing. That's some of the better access. Some Navajo residents drive four or five hours just to fill metal barrels. One study participant spends over $200 month in gas just to fetch water. In Red Mesa, Arizona, residents told researchers that the groundwater supplies are so low in some areas that they have to visit four or five locations to collect the water they need. Female elders reported stockpiling water for emergencies and for the winter, when freezing temperatures make hauling water difficult, according to the report.The paper noted that many study participants in the Navajo Nation in the Southwest have under 10 gallons of water at home at any given time. Many use as little as two or three gallons per day, which stands in stark contrast to the 88 gallons per day used by the average American, according to the report. That minimal water use means people in the Navajo nation have to make difficult choices between hygiene and water needed for food. NPR profiled Darlene Yazzie, an elderly woman who is a member of the Navajo nation. She needs to fill two 50-gallon barrels with water and then drive to a windmill to fetch water for her sheep. The water from the windmill is not fit for human consumption since it has unhealthy levels of arsenic and uranium. "A lot of people died of cancer around here," Yazzie said to NPR. "I noticed that more are being diagnosed. I'm pretty sure it's because of the environment and the water." The new report and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have both confirmed her hunch. The ground water in the Four Corners area is contaminated by 521 abandoned uranium mines. When uranium mining was at its peak in the 1990s, gastric cancer rates in the area doubled, according to the new paper, asNPR reported. The EPA says that unregulated drinking water sources are the greatest public health risk to the Navajo Nation, according to NPR.
Exposure to PM 2.5 pollution linked to brain atrophy, memory decline - Women in their 70s and 80s who were exposed to higher levels of air pollution experienced greater declines in memory and more Alzheimer's-like brain atrophy than their counterparts who breathed cleaner air, according to USC researchers. The findings of the nationwide study, published today in Brain, touch on the renewed interest in preventing Alzheimer's disease by reducing risk as well as hint at a potential disease mechanism. Alzheimer's is the sixth-leading cause of death in the United States, and there's currently no cure or treatment. "This is the first study to really show, in a statistical model, that air pollution was associated with changes in people's brains and that those changes were then connected with declines in memory performance," Fine particles, also called PM2.5 particles, are about 1/30th the width of a human hair. They come from traffic exhaust, smoke and dust and their tiny size allows them to remain airborne for long periods, get inside buildings, be inhaled easily, and reach and accumulate in the brain. Fine particle pollution is associated with asthma, cardiovascular disease, lung disease and premature death. Previous research has suggested that fine particle pollution exposure increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. What scientists haven't known is whether PM2.5 alters brain structure and accelerates memory decline.
Your state’s air pollution might be coming from another state’s power plants - Air pollution from power plants caused 16,000 premature deaths in the United States in 2014, according to new research on the sources and destinations of fine particulate matter produced by electricity generation. The state-by-state study had some other troubling findings, too: Exposure to the toxic pollutants varies by race and income, and in many cases fine particulate matter travels beyond the state where it was produced. Julian Marshall, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Washington and co-author of the study, told Grist that his team’s findings highlighted an important reason to address air pollution, while at the same time revealing a major challenge. “These findings are a reminder that as the air cleans up, we’re not only improving public health, we’re likely also reducing environmental injustice,” said Marshall. But “for states that want to improve pollution from power plants, there are some things you can do and there are some things you can’t do.” Fine particulate matter — also called PM 2.5, because it consists of particles less than 2.5 micrometers wide — is bad news. It’s one of the most severe environmental health risks in U.S., contributing to a range of medical problems, including respiratory and neurological diseases. Scientists say it causes more than 100,000 premature deaths every year in the U.S. It ends up in the atmosphere from a range of different sources, from fires to construction sites, but this study exclusively looked at the fine particulate matter associated with the electric grid — more than 90 percent of which came from coal-burning plants. Regardless of wealth, black households were exposed to air pollution from power plants at higher levels than the general population. The geographic distribution of fine particulate matter is also striking: PM 2.5 produced by electricity generation in one state is often blown into another state. Or to put it another way, pollution from Pennsylvania isn’t only killing Pennsylvanians — it’s also responsible for the deaths of dozens of New Yorkers, Rhode Islanders, Vermonters, and residents of other downwind states. Some states, like New York and Maryland, acquire more fine particulate matter from other states from outside than they produce themselves. Others, like West Virginia and Illinois, are “net exporters” of air pollution.
New satellite measurements show how polluted Los Angeles’ air really is -- Scientists who scanned the skies above dozens of U.S. cities have made a surprising discovery about the smog that's suspended over Los Angeles: one of its key ingredients isn't disappearing as fast as it once did. The finding may help explain why the once-steady improvements in air quality have come close to stalling out here even thoughnitrogen oxide emissions have continued to decline. It also suggests that the particular chemistry of L.A.'s air may complicate future cleanup efforts. "That's certainly part of why we're in a moment in Los Angeles where it's harder to get the air cleaner," Ronald Cohen and his former graduate student Joshua Laughner identified other cities where levels of nitrogen oxides—known collectively as NOx—have fallen out of tandem with emissions in recent years. But the discrepancy is particularly important for Los Angeles because the pollutant is so abundant here. Nitrogen oxides—a combination of nitric oxide (NO) andnitrogen dioxide (NO2) - are generated by motor vehicles and industrial machines like power plants, boilers, turbines and cement kilns. When NOx molecules are mixed with volatile organic compounds—from vehicles and a vast array of household and commercial products—and exposed to sunlight, they help form pollutants like ozone. NOx emissions have fallen at a rate of roughly 7% a year from 2006 to 2013 across most U.S. cities, Cohen said. Scientists had presumed there was a direct correlation between those emissions and NOx levels in the air. Any variations in the length of time NOx lasted in the air probably wouldn't have much affect on those levels, the thinking went. Cohen and Laughner used satellite data to measure nitrogen dioxide—a good proxy for nitrogen oxides as a whole—in 28 U.S. cities, including Memphis, Indianapolis and New York. t turned out that the length of time the molecules stuck around in the atmosphere before being broken down by chemical reactions seemed to follow different patterns over time in different cities. "In some places the lifetime got longer, in some places it got shorter. In some places it did one and then the other." The differences in NOx lifetimes in L.A. and elsewhere may be due in part to the particular chemical makeup of the atmospheres above each city, Cohen said. "What we can't do is explain why some cities behave in one way and why in another," Cohen said. "We think it's because we don't understand the organic molecules in those cities."
Sydney Air Quality at Hazardous Levels as Wildfires Rage -- Thick smoke from wildfires has shrouded Sydney and its surrounding areas with health experts warning residents with medical conditions to remain indoors. The Sydney skyline was barely visible with air quality in some parts of the city reaching over hazardous levels early Tuesday. Shane Fitzsimmons, the state’s rural fire commissioner, says firefighters would be challenged by high temperatures and wind conditions. Most of the coastal areas of the New South Wales are under very high fire danger with 48 fires burning across the state. Fires have destroyed 577 homes in New South Wales during the wildfire season, which peaks during the Southern Hemisphere summer but has started early after an unusually warm and dry winter.
Delhi Air Pollution Crisis: Air Quality In Delhi, World's Most Polluted City, Still 'Severe': Report - A day after Delhi was declared the most polluted city in the world by private weather forecasting agency Skymet, air quality levels in the national capital continue to fluctuate between 'severe' and 'hazardous' for a third consecutive day. According to Skymet the overall Air Quality Index (AQI) reading in Delhi this morning was 505 - down marginally from 527 on Friday. The slight improvement has been attributed to light winds but it is likely to be temporary, with the toxic haze expected to re-settle over the city on Tuesday.The AQI in neighbouring regions was almost as bad, with Noida recording an AQI of 471, Ghaziabad 424, Faridabad 427 and Gurgaon 420.An AQI between 0-50 is considered good, 51-100 is satisfactory, 101-200 moderate, 201-300 poor, 301-400 very poor and 401-500 is marked as severe/hazardous.On Friday Skymet said Delhi was the most polluted city in the world with AQI readings of 527. The report also named Kolkata and Mumbai as the fifth and ninth most polluted cities, respectively, with AQIs of 161 and 153. The alarming revelations came barely two weeks after a real-time air quality ranking report by IQ Air Visual also called the national capital the world's most polluted city. Air quality in Delhi and surrounding areas has deteriorated steadily since the Diwali weekend, leaving the city covered in a thick fog of poisonous fog. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which rules Delhi has repeatedly blamed stubble burning in neighbouring states like Punjab and Haryana for exacerbating the problem. Last month Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal called Delhi a "gas chamber".
Eateries and malls too finding it difficult to breathe in Delhi-NCR -- High air pollution levels hit the eating-out and entertainment industry in the National Capital Region, resulting in an 8-10% drop in revenue in the first fortnight of November from a year earlier as people stayed indoors or went out of town, industry officials said. “The first fortnight of November has seen a dip of about 10% in revenue,” said Rahul Singh, promoter of the Beer Café, which has 17 outlets in the NCR. “The post-Diwali detox got compounded by the air pollution and odd-even vehicle arrangement, which reduced the propensity of consumers stepping out.” National Restaurant Association of India president Anurag Katriar said the impact of pollution on dining out has been sweeping. “A lot of people left the cities for other parts of India as schools had been closed multiple times. Many worked from home and many others remained cautious, closely monitoring pollution levels,” said Katriar, also chief executive officer of deGustibus Hospitality, which operates restaurants like Indigo. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet and a report by IQ Air Visual named New Delhi as the most polluted city in the world, with the average air quality index crossing the 500 mark on Friday morning.
As Delhi pollution levels soar, customers throng an ‘oxygen bar’ for a breath of fresh air - Business was not great when 26-year-old entrepreneur Aryavir Kumar launched a new venture in South Delhi’s upscale Select City Walk mall in May. The way he saw it, his Oxy Pure “oxygen bar” would offer bursts of fragrant, purified oxygen to clients seeking relief from jet lag, sleep disorders, hangovers and even depression. But Delhi seemed less than enthusiastic. Then, crisis struck the National Capital Region – and opportunity banged on Kumar’s door. In October, pollution levels peaked to hazardous levels. Schools were shut. And for the last week, Delhi residents desperate for clean air have thronged Kumar’s establishment, eager to avail themselves of 15-minute sessions that start at Rs 299 and go up to Rs 499. “The first month was slow but we are now making profits,” The dangerous pollution levels across North India have proved that he’d made a good business decision. In two weeks, Kumar will open a branch of Oxy Pure at Indira Gandhi International Airport’s Terminal 3 and he has been been inundated with calls to start franchises of the bar. Customers at Oxy Pure strap a tube (known as a cannula) under their nostrils that gives them a whiff of oxygenated air with a fragrance of their choice: peppermint, orange, cinnamon, eucalyptus, lavender, spearmint or lemongrass. The air they breathe is generated by an “oxygen concentrating machine” that purifies the air around it and delivers it to the customer. Under normal circumstances, the air humans breathe contains only 20% oxygen. Extremely high levels of oxygen could actually be harmful, causing lung damage and possibly even death. The machines used to generate oxygen at Oxy Pure – sourced from a US firm called Oxygen Bars – create air with a 95% level of the gas, Kumar said. But since the tube is not fixed tightly under the customer’s nose, the oxygen they breathe is mixed with other atmospheric gases to eventually reach a concentration of between 30% and 50%..
‘I was born in garbage, I will die in garbage’ - Kitabun Nisa Shaikh is standing on the edge of a hillock of rubble and garbage, picking out plastic from a nallah slowly flowing by her house in Rafiq Nagar. Some of the waste has slithered there from the adjoining Deonar landfill, some of it is garbage thrown right into the open drain. Using a long wooden stick with a hook, she manages to draw in a pink plastic bottle entangled in a slimy black rag. Then she reaches across with the stick for the next item of value to her. She does this for around six hours a day, her orange hair glowing in the sun, her back bending with the effort at the age of 75. Glass beer bottles and plastic water bottles are prized items, which re-sell for more than other waste material. Every alternate day, when 12 to 15 kilos of plastic have been collected, Kitabun’s daughter-in-law Zahida puts it all in a polythene sack and carries it on her head to a scrap dealer in the Baba Nagar locality, a 15-minute walk away. In return, the family earns Rs. 200-300 – or around Rs. 1,000 a week. “We have to do this [work] to fill out stomachs,” says Kitabun. “I don’t like it at all, but what else can we do?" Near Kitabun’s hut are the outskirts of the 324-acre Deonar dumping ground. This is the largest of three such grounds in Mumbai (the other two are in Mulund and Kanjurmarg). It receives around 35 per cent of the roughly 9,500 metric tons of garbage that the city produces every day. The Deonar site was exhausted in 2016, but continues to be used – with a ‘last extension’ granted by the Bombay High Court to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation to use the ground till December 31, 2019, for dumping solid waste. Around the ground are several slum settlements like Rafiq Nagar. These are part of the city’s M-East ward, which has a population of 807,720 (Census 2011). The narrow lanes of Rafiq Nagar are flanked by clogged drains and heaps of garbage. The smell from the dumping ground hangs heavy in the air. Swarms of flies and mosquitoes hover everywhere. Kitabun’s hut is at the end of a lane, at the very edge of that nallah. It’s a 100-square feet room that shelters 16 people – Kitabun’s three sons, Zahida and 11 grandchildren. “During heavy rains, the water from the gutter enters our house,” she says. “We move our important things like dal, rice and some clothes on to the top shelves. Most items get wet. We take shelter at neighbours’ houses [higher up the lane] till the water recedes.”
Plastics Watch: Recycling, Raccoons, and Rubbish - The Guardian reports on Friday that the plastics industry, via an NGO they’ve created, Keep America Beautiful, is the power behind the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recycling initiative, Big plastic polluters accused of cynically backing US recycling day.The NGO promotes three goals: end littering; improve recycling; and beautify communities.Notice that each of these places the onus on individuals to clean up the plastics mess, after plastics pushers generate the waste – rather than on reducing or eliminating that waste in the first instance. According to the Guardian:“Just like the fossil fuel industry, corporate polluters have been using recycling to justify ever-increasing production of single-use packaging, while taxpayers and cities are left to foot the bill,” said Denise Patel, the US and Canada program director of Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives.“Lower-income communities and communities of color, who are the hardest hit and the least responsible, bear the brunt of a model that has brought us to the brink of the waste and climate crisis.”Now, far be it for me that recycling should be part of a sound waste management strategy. But it should be far from the major part. Why? Rather than making more plastics – via processes that exacerbate climate change we should stop transforming fossil fuel inputs into unnecessary waste. We’ll likely need to use those fuels in future, for reasons more pressing than swathing things in excessive and unnecessary plastics.The FT published a longform essay on the topic earlier this month, Can we break our addiction to plastic? The future of packaging, which touches on some of the reasons curbing our use of plastics is so difficult. It mentions just how poor the current reality is on recycling plastics, with only about 9% off the 8.3 billion tons of plastics produced since the 1950s being recycled. The remainder ends up in landfills, oceans, or elsewhere in the environment. Before turning away from recycling, I’ll highlight a recent Waste Dive piece, How recycling has changed in all 50 states, which documents changes in state recycling efforts in the wake of the Chinese decision to ban plastic imports about two years ago. The first consequence of the Chinese decision was to divert plastics waste to there designates. Which quickly became overwhelmed, and either reduced, banned, or sent back, further imports (see Waste Watch: US Dumps Plastic Rubbish in Southeast Asia; India Bans Plastics Waste Imports, While Fossil Fuel Plastics Pushers in US and China Ramp Up to Party On; and Recycling Woes: Indonesia Sends Waste Shipment Back to Australia.
A rubbish story: China's mega-dump full 25 years ahead of schedule - BBC - China's largest dump is already full - 25 years ahead of schedule. The Jiangcungou landfill in Shaanxi Province, which is the size of around 100 football fields, was designed to take 2,500 tonnes of rubbish per day.But instead it received 10,000 tonnes of waste per day - the most of any landfill site in China. China is one of the world's biggest polluters, and has been struggling for years with the rubbish its 1.4 billion citizens generate. The Jiangcungou landfill in Xi'an city was built in 1994 and was designed to last until 2044.The landfill serves over 8 million citizens. It spans an area of almost 700,000 square metres, with a depth of 150 metres and a storage capacity of more than 34 million cubic metres.Until recently, Xi'an was one of the few cities in China that solely relied on landfill to dispose of household waste - leading to capacity being reached early.Earlier this month, a new incineration plant was opened, and at least four more are expected to open by 2020. Together, they are expected to be able to process 12,750 tonnes of rubbish per day.The move is part of a national plan to reduce the number of landfills, and instead use other waste disposal methods like incineration.The landfill site in Xi'an will eventually become an "ecological park". In 2017, China collected 215 million tonnes of urban household waste, according to the country's statistical yearbook. That's up from 152 million ten years earlier.The country had 654 landfill sites and 286 incineration plants.It is not clear what China's recycling rate is, as no figures have been released. China plans to recycle 35% of waste in major cities by the end of 2020, according to one government report.This July, sorting and recycling rubbish was made mandatory in Shanghai - leading to "a sense of panic" among some residents. In 2015, there was a landslide at a rubbish dump in the southern city of Shenzhen, killing 73 people.The dump was designed to hold four million cubic metres worth of rubbish, with a maximum height of 95 metres. When it collapsed, it was holding 5.8m cubic metres of material with waste heaps up to 160m high.
Fueling Concerns of Approaching Catastrophic 'Tipping Point,' Deforestation of Brazilian Amazon Hit Highest Level in Decade -New data out Monday from the Brazilian government showed that Amazon deforestation this year hit its highest level in over a decade, prompting environmental campaigners to warn the rainforest was approaching a possibly catastrophic "tipping point."According to the figures from the Brazilian Space Research Institute (INPE), in the 12-month period ending July 30, 2019 deforestation claimed 3,769 square miles (9,762 square kilometers). That amount represents the highest rate of deforestation since 2008 and a nearly 30 percent increase from the previous 12-month period."These figures confirm what we feared, namely that 2019 has been a dark year for the rainforest in Brazil," said Øyvind Eggen, secretary-general of Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN), calling the numbers "alarmingly high.""We must remember that the Amazon has been undergoing deforestation for decades," Eggen added. "We are approaching a potential tipping point, where large parts of the forest will be so damaged that it collapses. A loss the size of what we've seen this year is terrible news." Since the data set ends in July, the acreage doesn't capture losses from the end of the summer as fires—which observers have blamed on the deforestation-supporting policies of right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro—raged in Brazil and neighboring countries. The effects of Bolsonaro's policies drew renewed ire from Cristiane Mazzetti, Greenpeace Brazil’s Amazon Campaigner, who said Monday that the Brazilian president's "anti-environmental agenda favors those who practice environmental crimes, and encourages violence against forest people. His administration is trashing practically all the work that has been done in recent decades to protect the environment and end deforestation." "The impacts of this devastation are far reaching," she said. "Deforestation at these levels is crushing the rich biodiversity of the region putting wildlife and plants at risk of extinction and jeopardizing communities and businesses that rely on the water and other natural resources from the forest." "The Amazon is approaching a tipping point," Cesareo said, "in which it could transform into something more like a grassland savannah, causing serious consequences for the planet."
Toxic algae Blooms Are Worsening with climate Change - Every summer, vast blooms of harmful algae erupt in freshwater lakes across the United States. This year, blue-green mats of algae blanketed more than 1,500 square kilometers of Lake Erie’s surface by August; toxic algae forced officials to close New Jersey’s largest lake to recreational activities, and officials in North Carolina and Georgia warned dog owners to keep their pets out of the water after at least four dogs died after swimming in contaminated water. Although these harmful algal blooms are not new to freshwater lakes, they do appear to be getting worse. But researchers weren’t certain whether freshwater blooms are actually intensifying or scientists are just paying closer attention. Summertime algal blooms are indeed worsening in large freshwater lakes around the world—and climate change may be undercutting efforts to combat the problem.A new study that looked back at 3 decades of satellite data finds that these summertime algal blooms are indeed worsening in large freshwater lakes around the world—and that climate change may be undercutting efforts to combat the problem. “For the last 1 or 2 decades, we’ve made a tremendous amount of progress in terms of understanding the links between climate and water quantity—things like drought and flooding and extreme rainfall,” said Anna Michalak, a researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science and a coauthor on the new study. “But there’s been much less work related to climate and water quality.” In the new study published in Nature, Michalak and her colleagues sought to fill in some of the gaps in observations with nearly 30 years of satellite data. The team looked at images of 71 large lakes across 33 countries, collected between 1984 and 2012 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Landsat 5 satellite, and used an algorithm to detect peak summertime bloom intensity in each of the lakes. Bloom intensity increased in more than two thirds of the lakes, the study finds, a trend that held across differing regions and across lakes of varying sizes and depths.
In the Great Lakes’ most productive fishing grounds, algae-fueled dead zones are eroding livelihoods - From his lakefront dock in Crystal Rock, 70 miles west of Cleveland, Dean Koch still gleefully reminisces on his career as a commercial fisherman in the heyday. Back then, fishermen set hundreds of miles of gill nets and thousands of trap nets in Lake Erie. The amount of fish in one of his trap nets could easily fill an entire boat. He would sell those bountiful catches to one of the roughly 30 fish markets along the Ohio coastline. Now, Koch, 70, says, the number of fishermen who hold commercial licenses could sit around the small round table in his garage. Some days, his crew, led by his son Drew, is lucky if the fish inside all 12 of their trap nets fill the boat. And there are only two fishhouses that buy their catches. After decades of pollution, habitat degradation, overfishing and numerous waves of invasive species, Lake Erie is still the most productive fishery in the Great Lakes and among the most valuable natural resources in the United States. Its reputation as the most fertile fishing ground in the region is owed to its warm, shallow waters that allow algae, the base of the aquatic food chain, to thrive. The algae serves as the base of the food chain for small fish and is among the reasons why Lake Erie, which only holds 2% of the Great Lakes water volume, cradles roughly 50% of the fish. Ironically, in overabundance, this algae imperils the fishery. Harmful algae blooms and dead zones have killed or forced many Lake Erie fish to migrate. Government regulations limit who is allowed to fish for certain catches, potentially changing the composition of the fishery. “Yellow perch was a big fishery for us. We were selling 8, 10, 12 million a year,” Dean Koch said. “This year, we quit fishing for yellow perch because we couldn’t make any money — there wasn’t enough..” It’s difficult to say whether Lake Erie’s dead zone is directly responsible for curtailing the populations of foraging fish, but scientists say larger and longer-lasting dead zones are certainly altering their behavior.
Fed Agency Plans Are Not Adequate to Prevent 99.8% of U.S. Endangered Species From Suffering Climate Crisis, Study Says - While the planet continues to heat up, almost every single one of the 459 species listed as endangered in the U.S. will struggle as the climate crisis intensifies, according to new research published in the journal Nature Climate Change.The researchers found that every animal on the list except for the Hawaiian Goose had one or more sensitivity that would leave them ill equipped to handle a warming planet, meaning 99.8 percent is vulnerable to extinction caused by global warming. However, federal agencies that are mandated to protect endangered animals have a subpar response. The federal agencies consider that only 64 percent of the endangered animals will be affected by the climate crisis. To make matters worse, the federal agencies have only planned interventions for 18 percent of species, according to the study."This study confirms that the climate crisis could make it even harder for nearly all of our country's endangered species to avoid extinction," said Astrid Caldas, a study co-author and a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, as The Guardian reported."While agencies have increasingly listed climate change as a growing threat to species whose survival is already precarious, many have not translated this concern into tangible actions, meaning a significant protection gap still exists," she added.The animals on the Endangered Species List face numerous threats. The Key deer, found only in the Florida Keys, for example, faces a threat of habitat loss due to rising seas. The Florida Panther and the north Atlantic right whale also face threats from declining food stocks. However, nothing faces more threats than amphibians, mollusks and arthropods, which are sensitive to manifold threats from the climate crisis, including changes in water quality and harmful invasive species that move in as temperatures climb, according to the study, as The Guardian reported.While 99.8 percent were found to have at least one of eight sensitivities to a changing climate, the analysis found that 74 percent of the animals on the list face threats from three or more factors.Defenders of Wildlife, a non-profit conservation organization, led the study. The group faulted federal agencies for not doing their due diligence in administering the Endangered Species Act (ESA)."Our study demonstrates that while climate change is a pressing threat to imperiled s pecies, age
Venice: Third Exceptional Flood Makes Week Worst on Record - Record flood water levels in Venice hit again on Sunday making this the worst week of flooding in the city in over 50 years. Venice's tide office recorded the peak tide of 1.5 meters above sea level just after 1 p.m. local time UTC.The new peak left 70 percent of the UNESCO World Heritage city submerged on Sunday. Since records began in 1872, that level has never been reached even twice in one year. There is no other week on record where waters have reached the 1.5-meter mark three times in one week.Usually, tides of 80-90 centimeters are considered high.St. Mark's Square — the lowest point in the city and home of the iconic St. Mark's Basilica — was submerged again and closed to tourists.Museums and stores in hardest-hit areas also remained closed.Hundreds of volunteers mobilized to help Venice's inhabitants and to protect iconic buildings in the city, which is world-famous for its canals, historic architecture and art.Mayor Luigi Brugnaro, who has also been appointed special commissioner to deal with the emergency, pleaded with citizens not to give up hope, saying, "Venetians only get on their knees to pray." Earlier in the week the city declared a state of emergency and ministers pledged €20 million ($22 million) to address the immediate damage. Other parts of Italy also experienced severe weather during the weekend, with the river Arno in Pisa threatening to burst it banks.
Venice Inundated by Historic Flooding: In Pictures -- Bloomberg --Venice has been inundated with epic rainfall, flooding historic jewels like St. Mark’s Basilica and devastating shops, businesses and homes in a city that attracts more than 20 million visitors a year. Climate change may be partly to blame as more than half of the most serious flooding since 1923 has occurred in the past two decades, coinciding with the changing weather patterns linked to global warming. More localized effects are also at play, with politics, bureaucracy and corruption tripping up an engineering fix that aimed to tame the waters. Project “MOSE,” a series of mobile gates that can rise to control the level of the city’s lagoon, is already three years behind schedule and billions of euros over budget.
The Wall That Would Save Venice From Drowning Is Underwater WSJ - When floods arrived this month, a project to block out the sea wasn’t ready, slowed by corruption and bureaucracy. As the water rose, Alessandro Ferro made a desperate effort to prevent a devastating flood on the islands of the Venetian Lagoon. The mayor of the lagoon town of Chioggia asked for the first-ever use of submersible steel floodgates that had been built for billions of euros to block out the sea. But he could find no one willing and authorized to raise the barriers.
Extinction Rebellion Sends a Sinking Home Along the River Thames, Warning of Climate Disaster --Climate change activist group Extinction Rebellion staged a public protest over the weekend, in the form of a floating structure that created the illusion of a suburban house sinking into the River Thames in London. Titled “The Sinking House,” the intervention took place in the early hours on Sunday, November 10, and is intended as a public appeal to politicians to make a more stringent and immediate response to regulate the effects of human industry and waste on the environment. “A classic suburban house was seen floating down the river, sinking into the water in yet another attempt to send an SOS to the government on climate inaction and draw attention to the threat humans face from climate change and rising sea levels,” read a statement released by the group in connection with the event. The statement directly referred to an ongoing flood crisis affecting properties and populations across England, with nearly 50 flood warnings from the Environment Agency in place this week. According to BBC reporting, the weather has resulted in hundreds of flooded properties in Derbyshire and Yorkshire, causing thousands of citizens to be evacuated from their homes, and at least one death — that of former Derbyshire High Sheriff Annie Hall, who was swept away by flood waters. “Representing the disastrous realities of projected sea level rises, perhaps the stunt was unnecessary. As the ongoing flood disaster in Derbyshire and Yorkshire has so starkly illustrated, our homes, businesses and families are at very real risk,” reads the statement from Extinction Rebellion. “We are watching, in real-time, as people’s lives are destroyed around the world and in the UK. Unless action is taken to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero these tragedies are set to worsen.”The statement goes on to cite hair-raising scientific predictions of rising sea levels by 2100, which range from less than 1 meters (~3.2 feet) to as high as 5 meters (~16.4 feet). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest a rise of fewer than 2 meters (~6.5 feet), but even that could have devastating consequences on personal property and public infrastructure — and the statement points out that past assessments have “almost always underestimated the pace of climate change.”
PG&E reduces scale of latest blackouts, but 120,000 Californians still in the dark due to wildfire threat - Pacific Gas & Electric turned off electricity Wednesday for about 120,000 people in Northern California to prevent power lines from sparking wildfires during a new bout of windy, warm weather. However, favorable weather allowed the nation’s largest utility to drastically reduce the number of customers it originally had planned to black out — about 375,000 — and even to begin restoring electricity in some areas. Higher-than-expected humidity, cloud cover and even some rain showers in the Sierra Nevada helped reduce the risk, said Scott Strenfel, PG&E’s principal meteorologist. “All of these factors kind of broke in all of our favor,” he said. Virtually all those who lost power were expected to get it back Thursday once a weather all-clear is declared and ground crews and helicopters check power lines to make sure any damage is repaired, officials said. Forecasts had called for it to be dry and windy Wednesday, with gusts up to 55 mph, which could fling tree branches or other debris into lines and cause sparks that have the potential to set catastrophic fires, PG&E officials said. A virtually rainless fall has left brush bone dry. The blackout is the latest in a series of massive outages by PG&E PCG, -1.96% , including one last month that plunged nearly 2.5 million people into darkness and outraged officials and customers as overkill. Officials accused the company of using the blackouts as a crutch after years of failing to update its infrastructure to withstand fire weather. PG&E equipment has caused some of California’s most destructive wildfires in recent years.
California utility PG&E plans regular blackouts for another ten years as more residents have power cut this week - Earlier this week, the Pacific Gas and Electricity utility (PG&E) announced that they would shut off electrical power to 375,000 customers beginning Wednesday morning in the fourth such mass power outage since October. The power outages were prompted by red flag warnings from the National Weather Service of winds topping 55 miles per hours coupled with low humidity readings in the Northern Sacramento Valley and North and East San Francisco Bay areas. Due to more favorable than expected weather conditions, including rainfall on Wednesday, however, the utility actually shut off power to 48,000 customers north of the San Francisco Bay Area. Sonoma County officials reported that PG&E would start inspections and re-energization around 8 a.m. today and have power completely restored by 10 p.m. A timeline for power restoration in neighboring Napa County has yet to be shared. In spite of the reduced fire risk yesterday, winds topped 71 miles per hour in the highest elevations and forecasters believe that humidity levels will continue to fall and temperatures rise in the coming days. This will inevitably lead to further risk of wildfires and more power shutoffs by the company. PG&E meteorologist Scott Strenfel said in a press conference Tuesday night that 2019 has been one of the driest starts to a rainy season in more than 100 years. “If you look at precipitation totals for cities across Northern and Central California, some have observed no precipitation as of October 1st,” Strenfel told reporters. “As an example, a climate station in Napa, which is called the Napa State Hospital Fire Station, has not recorded any measurable precipitation since September 15 and the last time that occurred was 1905.” It was only last year that the state of California emerged from its longest drought in recorded history, lasting from 2011-2017. Unless there is a drastic increase in precipitation over the next few months, the state will be in drought conditions once again, raising the risk of further wildfires and associated power outages.
PG&E Struggles to Find a Way Out of Bankruptcy - California’s largest utility needs to reach a settlement with victims of wildfires and other creditors while fending off calls for a state takeover. After an autumn marked by mass blackouts and wildfires, Pacific Gas & Electric is racing to craft a plan to escape bankruptcy. That plan needs to satisfy fire victims and state officials who are threatening to take over PG&E, California’s largest utility, unless executives improve its safety record. If PG&E doesn’t reach an agreement with victims and other creditors by early next year, the utility might not be able to participate in a new state wildfire fund. A federal bankruptcy judge could also strip control from its management and board, or allow it to be broken up, with the pieces sold to the highest bidder. These tensions surfaced in a court hearing on Tuesday in which PG&E asked a bankruptcy judge to limit its liability for wildfires, and at a legislative hearing that featured the company’s chief executive on Monday in Sacramento. Another big problem for PG&E: California’s fire season isn’t over yet. A dangerous combination of high winds and dry conditions is expected as early as Wednesday morning, and PG&E has said it could cut power to up to 150,000 customers. That works out to about 400,000 people — when accounting for shared addresses — in 16 counties across Northern California, including wine country and the Sierra foothills. Subscribe to With Interest Catch up and prep for the week ahead with this newsletter of the most important business insights, delivered Sundays. So far this fire season, the utility has pre-emptively shut off power to nearly three million people in central and Northern California, some for as many as five days. PG&E has said the blackouts help guard against fires ignited by the sparks created when windblown tree branches hit live power lines. But critics, including state and local government officials, have said PG&E has done a poor job of warning residents about the shut-offs, which have had a disproportionate impact on low-income families that cannot afford generators or batteries, and on older and sick residents who rely on electric medical devices. For some, the blackouts have amounted to “a big screw-you,” said State Senator Bill Dodd, a Democrat whose district includes Napa and Sonoma, during the hearing on Monday. PG&E has warned that it might have to employ such blackouts for up to a decade while the utility makes up for deferred maintenance.
Why California’s Wildfires Are Getting Worse – Greta Moran -- California’s beautiful stretches of forest and grassland are meant to burn. Fire is a natural part of the state’s diverse ecosystems, and native plants (including sequoias andredwoods) have adapted to withstand periodic fires. But California was never meant to burn the way it is now. Over time, these natural, regenerative wildfires have turned into highly destructive, deadly catastrophes without historical comparison, to the point that fire historian Stephen Pyne has named this era “the Pyrocene.” Paradise, California, was leveled to the ground by fire moving at a speed of 80 football fields per minute. Sonoma County, still recovering from the 2017 Tubbs Fire, was not supposed to experience another catastrophe like the Kincade Fire so soon. California is not supposed to experience statewide tragedies every fall like the ones we’ve seen in the past three years. Wildfires may seem like sudden accidents of nature, but these recent conflagrations are in some ways a more slow-moving disaster: the result of overlapping, systemic issues, including the historical suppression of indigenous fire management practices and accusations of corporate negligence of vital public resources, climate experts tell Teen Vogue. The staggering number of deaths, destruction, and displacement from recent wildfires is so tragic, in part, because so many of the factors involved are caused by humans. An investigation by the Wall Street Journal claimed that California’s largest investor-owned utility, Pacific Gas & Electric, knew that parts of its aging 18,500-mile transmission system were in desperate need of repair and a potential fire hazard, but that the company failed to act. The state found the utility giant responsible for the 2018 Camp Fire, the deadliest wildfire in the California's history, and blamed for sparking more than 1,500 fires in total.The warming climate has dried out California’s landscape, turning it into a tinderbox. It’s no coincidence that, last year, vegetation was at record levels of dryness in the part of California where the most destructive fire in the state’s history was burning. One study showed that the burned areas consumed by California’s wildfires have increased by more than 400% between 1972 and 2018. This is due in part to climate change: rising temperatures, have an exponential impact when it comes to setting the stage for catastrophic wildfires, the researchers found, particularly in forests. “The hotter the air is, the drier the air is," says Park Williams, the lead researcher on the study and a bioclimatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "The drier the air is, the more easily it can dry out the vegetation and make it flammable.”
‘Code Red’ alert issued as Australia fires continue to burn - RTE - Firefighters are continuing to battle nearly 200 bushfires across eastern Australia, while authorities have issued a Code Red alert for parts of Victoria State. Sydney has also been blanketed in hazardous smoke for the third consecutive day. Officials imposed a total fire ban across Victoria where temperatures were expected to peak above 40C and warned people in high danger areas to be prepared to evacuate. A Code Red alert indicates the worst possible bushfire conditions, warning people that should a fire start it will be fast moving, unpredictable and likely uncontrollable. Dozens of fires were burning across the state by early afternoon. Authorities warned locals in towns about 50km north of Ballarat, the state's third largest city, that it was too late for them to evacuate safely. "You are in danger, act now to protect yourself," Victoria Country Fire Authority said in an alert. "It is too late to leave. The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately." It was the first Code Red alert issued by Victoria in ten years. "Homes are not built to withstand the types of fires we may see on a Code Red day and you don't want to be caught travelling through areas on fire at the last minute if you wait and see," the Victoria Country Fire Authority (CFA) chief officer Steve Warrington told reporters in Melbourne.
Global heating supercharging Indian Ocean climate system - Global heating is “supercharging” an increasingly dangerous climate mechanism in the Indian Ocean that has played a role in disasters this year including bushfires in Australia and floods in Africa. Scientists and humanitarian officials say this year’s record Indian Ocean dipole, as the phenomenon is known, threatens to reappear more regularly and in a more extreme form as sea surface temperatures rise. Of most concern are years in which the sea surface off the coast of Africa warms up, provoking increased rains, while temperatures off Australia fall, leading to drier weather. It is similar to El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific, which cause sharp changes in weather patterns on both sides of the ocean. Caroline Ummenhofer, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts who has been a key figure in efforts to understand the importance of the dipole, said unique factors were at play in the Indian Ocean compared with other tropical regions. While ocean currents and winds in the Atlantic and Pacific can disperse heating water, the large Asian landmass to the north of the Indian Ocean makes it particularly susceptible to retaining heat. “It’s quite different to the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific events. There you have you have steady easterly trade winds. In the Indian Ocean that’s not the case,” Ummenhofer said. “There is a certain season where you have easterly winds. Otherwise you have seasonally reversing monsoon winds, which makes for very different dynamics.” Recent research suggests ocean heat has risen dramatically over the past decade, leading to the potential for warming water in the Indian Ocean to affect the Indian monsoon, one of the most important climate patterns in the world. “There has been research suggesting that Indian Ocean dipole events have become more common with the warming in the last 50 years, with climate models suggesting a tendency for such events to become more frequent and becoming stronger,” Ummenhofer said. She said warming appeared to be “supercharging” mechanisms already existing in the background. “The Indian Ocean is particularly sensitive to a warming world. It is the canary in the coalmine seeing big changes before others come to other tropical ocean areas.” Australian climatologists have pointed to this year’s dipole as at least one of the contributing factors in the bushfires. Jonathan Pollock, of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said this dipole was “up there as one of the strongest” on record.
Pacific seals at risk as Arctic ice melt lets deadly disease spread from Atlantic --A potentially deadly disease affecting marine mammals, including seals and sea otters, has been passed from the North Atlantic Ocean to the northern Pacific thanks to the melting of the Arctic sea ice. Experts have long been concerned that sea ice melting in the northern oceans, caused by global climate heating, could allow previously geographically limited diseases to be transmitted between the two oceans. Now scientists believe they have identified how an outbreak of distemper, similar to that suffered by dogs, was passed from northern seal populations to Alaskan seals and sea otters . “There’s long been concern that melting Arctic sea ice could allow disease to pass between the Atlantic and the Pacific,” Tracey Goldstein, an expert in marine animal diseases at the University of California, Davis, and one of the lead authors of a report, said. “Now here we are.” Phocine distemper virus, or PDV, has long been a threat to seal populations in the northern Atlantic, along with several strains of influenza, but had not previously been identified in the Pacific. It was first recognised in 1988 following a massive epidemic in harbour and grey seals in north-western Europe with a second event of similar magnitude and extent in 2002. The 1988 outbreak killed thousands of Britain’s seals. The virus attacks the immune system, leaving animals susceptible to pneumonia and in the most severe cases can kill a seal within 10 days of infection. The two outbreaks, which both started on the Danish island of Anholt in the Kattegat strait, killed about 23,000 harbour seals in 1988 and 30,000 seals in 2002. The virus is believed to spread through contact between infected individuals and has killed animals in the waters of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the UK and Germany. The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, based its conclusions on samples taken from seals, sea lions and sea otters in Alaska between 2001 and 2016, finding that PDV had become entrenched in Alaskan waters. The report warns of the potential for other diseases to be spread as sea ice recedes. “Climate change-driven reductions in sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase and open-water routes along the northern Russian coast have occurred every August and/or September since 2008.
The climate chain reaction that threatens the heart of the Pacific -The salmon catch is collapsing off Japan’s northern coast, plummeting by about 70 percent in the past 15 years. The disappearance of the fish coincides with another striking development: the loss of a unique blanket of sea ice that dips far below the Arctic to reach this shore. The twin impacts — less ice, fewer salmon — are the products of rapid warming in the Sea of Okhotsk, wedged between Siberia and Japan. The area has warmed in some places by as much as 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times, making it one of the fastest-warming spots in the world, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the nonprofit organization Berkeley Earth.That increase far outstrips the global average and exceeds the limit policymakers set in Paris in 2015 when they aimed to keep Earth’s average temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees Celsius.The rising temperatures are starting to shut down the single most dynamic sea ice factory on Earth. The intensity of ice generation in the northwestern Sea of Okhotsk exceeds that of any single place in the Arctic Ocean or Antarctica, and the sea ice reaches a lower latitude than anywhere else on the planet. Its decline has a cascade of consequences well beyond Japan as climate dominoes begin to fall.When sea ice forms here, it expels huge amounts of salt into the frigid water below the surface, creating some of the densest ocean water on Earth. That water then sinks and travels east, carrying oxygen, iron and other key nutrients out into the northern Pacific Ocean, where marine life depends on it.As the ice retreats, that nutrient-rich current is weakening, endangering the biological health of the vast northern Pacific — one of the most startling, and least discussed, effects of climate change so far observed. “We call the Sea of Okhotsk the heart of the North Pacific,” said Kay Ohshima, a polar oceanographer at the Institute of Low Temperature Science at Hokkaido University. “But the Sea of Okhotsk is significantly warming, three times faster than the global mean. “That causes the power of the heart to weaken,” he said. The cascade starts more than a thousand miles away in a uniquely frigid area of Siberia known as the “Cold Pole,” where the coldest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere (-67.7 degrees Celsius) was measured in 1933.The Cold Pole, too, is warming rapidly, by about 2.7 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times in the village of Oymyakon. That means the bitter north wind that blows down onto the Sea of Okhotsk is also warming.The warmer wind inhibits the formation of sea ice. Across the Sea of Okhotsk, ice cover during the peak months of February and March has shrunk by nearly 30 percent in the past four decades, a vanishing of about 130,000 square miles of ice, an area larger than Arizona.
What’s Driving Antarctica's Meltdown? - The floating ice shelves along the edges of West Antarctica that slow the flow of its vast glaciers are under assault from all directions, and they're becoming more vulnerable to collapse, scientists warn. Warmer water has started creeping in under them, eating away at the ice from below. Warmer air—and, in places, more rain—is melting the surface, creating ponds that can drain deep down and then splinter ice from within.Now, new research is highlighting another threat: Since 2000, moist and warm tendrils of air known as atmospheric rivers have been swirling toward the coast more frequently, bringing more rain and surface melting. Antarctica has been losing about 250 billion tons of ice annually in recent years, and research shows the rate has increased sixfold since 1979. At this pace, researchers have suggested, West Antarctica's ice shelves may reach climate tipping points and crumble, sending sea level rise surging well beyond current projections. The floating ice shelves, partly frozen to the sea floor or to fjord walls, hold back vast quantities of land-based ice that could raise sea level more than currently projected if the ice's flow to the sea speeds up, said Penn State climate researcher Richard Alley. Alley noted that some research has suggested that, if global warming pushes West Antarctica's towering ice cliffs to collapse, it could raise sea level more than 3 feet by 2100, surging to 50 feet by 2500, from Antarctic ice melt alone."That model is sometimes treated as a worst-case scenario, but in fact the model used a maximum calving rate that has briefly been exceeded in Greenland already, and the possibility exists that even faster calving could occur from higher, wider cliffs that could develop in Antarctica," he said. Even the most recent international assessment of ice loss relies on models that don't account for some of those ice shelf tipping points, he said. "If we're fortunate, and the ice shelves are retained, then these models may be accurate. If we do lose the ice shelves, the models may project less sea level rise than will occur, perhaps by a lot."
California’s methane super-emitters - Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, trapping much more heat. Point-source methane emitters are typically small—usually less than 10 meters in diameter—but they emit plumes of highly concentrated methane. To map such point emissions, scientists in California flew over the state with an airborne imaging spectrometer, using it to measure methane emissions. They focused on a long list of potential sources: oil and gas production, processing, transmission, storage, and distribution equipment; refineries; dairy-manure management sites; landfills and composting facilities; wastewater-treatment plants; gas-fired power plants; and liquified and compressed natural gas facilities.Most facilities, especially the dairies and the oil fields, were in the San Joaquin Valley. The researchers ended up measuring emissions from 564 distinct sources at 250 different facilities. These point emitters had not really been examined before, because they often only belch out their methane intermittently or in a somewhat sporadic manner. To catch them in the act, the researchers repeated the flyovers five times between August 2016 and October 2018.They conclude that roughly 40% of California’s methane emissions come from these point-source emitters rather than larger, more diffuse sources, like rice fields. Over half of point-source emissions come from only 10% of the sites. Landfills were the worst, followed by dairies and the oil and gas sector. A previous analysis that used atmospheric measurements rather than airborne imaging spectrometry reversed the relative contributions of landfills and dairies, leading the authors of this more recent work to suggest that other emission sectors may have also been improperly estimated in that earlier assessment. The authors also highlight that, perhaps not shockingly, “Large discrepancies are observed between many of the self-reported emissions from participating facilities and [this airborne imaging study] and independent airborne estimates.”
Most countries aren't hitting 2030 climate goals, and everyone will pay the price - The majority of the carbon emission reduction pledges for 2030 that 184 countries made under the Paris Agreement aren’t nearly enough to keep global warming well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius). Some countries won’t achieve their pledges, and some of the world's largest carbon emitters will continue to increase their emissions, according to a panel of world-class climate scientists. Their report, “The Truth Behind the Paris Agreement Climate Pledges,” warns that by 2030, the failure to reduce emissions will cost the world a minimum of $2 billion per day in economic losses from weather events made worse by human-induced climate change. Moreover, weather events and patterns will hurt human health, livelihoods, food, and water, as well as biodiversity.On Monday, November 4, the Trump Administration submitted a formal request to officially pull the United States out of the 2015 Paris Agreement next November. Every nation in the world has agreed “to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change,” according to language in the pact.“Countries need to double and triple their 2030 reduction commitments to be aligned with the Paris target,” says Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-author of the report that closely examined the 184 voluntary pledges under the Paris Agreement.“We have the technology and knowledge to make those emissions cuts, but what’s missing are strong enough policies and regulations to make it happen,” Watson says in an interview. “Right now the world is on a pathway to between 3 and 4 degrees C (5.5 and 7F) by the end of the century.” That pathway risks triggering natural feedbacks such as massive thawing of permafrost or widespread forest die-offs, which could lead to additional uncontrollable warming. Scientists have called this the Hothouse Earth scenario, where sea levels rise 30 to 200 feet (10 to 60 meters) and large parts of the planet become uninhabitable.
New Report Finds Costs of Climate Change Impacts Often Underestimated - - Yves Smith - Climate economics researchers have often underestimated – sometimes badly underestimated – the costs of damages resulting from climate change. Those underestimates occur particularly in scenarios where Earth’s temperature warms beyond the Paris climate target of 1.5 to 2 degrees C (2.7 to 3.6 degrees F).That’s the conclusion of a new report written by a team of climate and Earth scientists and economists from the Earth Institute at Columbia University, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. It’s a conclusion consistent with the findings of numerous recent climate economics studies. Once temperatures warm beyond those Paris targets, the risks of triggering unprecedented climate damages grow. However, because the rate and magnitude of climate change has entered uncharted territory in human history, the temperature thresholds and severity of future climate impacts remain highly uncertain, and thus difficult to capture in climate economics models. Put simply, it’s difficult to project the economic impacts resulting from circumstances which are themselves unprecedented. Research has shown that humans are warming the climate at a rate 20 to 50 times faster than some of Earth’s fastest natural climate change events. Global temperatures may already behotter than they have been during all of human civilization, and they continue to rise rapidly. Continuing on this rapid warming path will create a “rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level,” according to the authors of the new study. Some of these thresholds include even more severe extreme weather events (e.g. drought, heat, floods, and hurricanes), destabilizing ice sheets and the resulting sea-level rise, destruction of biodiversity, and collapsing ecosystems. Climate models incorporate these impacts as best as they can – some better than others – but as Earth’s climate enters a state unprecedented in human history, the range and severity of damages become increasingly difficult to accurately account for. Climate economics modelers like recent Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus incorporate these climate damages into their models through what’s called the “damage function.” However, as Nordhaus has noted, “estimates of damage functions are virtually non-existent for temperature increases above 3°C. … The damage function needs to be examined carefully or re-specified in cases of higher warming or catastrophic damages.”
Climate Change Is Coming for Global Trade - After Hurricane Sandy pushed an enormous storm surge toward the New York and New Jersey coastlines several years ago, the ensuing damage left an indelible imprint on the public imagination. Restaurants with ocean views were battered by wild waves, homes were rent asunder, and historic lighthouses were pummeled into piles of rubble. New York City was paralyzed for days, and some 40,000 people were left homeless. The dramatic destruction garnered 24-hour media coverage, but the damage to international trade slipped more quietly under the radar. No TV cameras captured the storm waters as they swelled over the quays surrounding the Port of New York and New Jersey or as they surged through operations centers, knocking computers, power transformers, and cargo control systems off-line. Scant attention was paid to the goods containers strewn like toys around the marine terminals or to the gantry cranes left inoperable by saltwater damage. For a week, container ships laden with cargo floated aimlessly in the calmed harbor while responders scrambled to repair the damage. As concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere at a record-breaking pace, changes to the climate system—not least sea level rise and increasingly ferocious extreme weather—will pose a growing threat to international trade. Costal transport infrastructure, especially ports, is highly vulnerable. But this is a two-way relationship. International trade plays a well-established role in making climate change worse by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but what Sandy portends is that climate change will also imperil the smooth flow of international trade. Despite their interconnectedness, these issues are mostly considered in silos. The 2015 Paris climate change agreement devotes not one clause to trade. And the sectors underpinning it—aviation and shipping, whose emissions are growing by 3-5 percent annually—are not covered either. Similarly, the 2001 Doha Ministerial Declaration—which set the parameters for the stalled Doha round of trade negotiations—does not mention climate change. As a result, sizable chunks of the global economy have fallen between the environmental protection cracks. Perhaps more important, the rapid growth of international trade also makes striking an effective global climate agreement more difficult.
Climate change could shave off 3% of the world economy, study finds - Climate change could shave off 3% of world growth over the next 30 years, according to a study from the Economist Intelligence Unit. Africa, South America and the Middle East are likely to be impacted the hardest by climate change, the report states. This is because they have higher average temperatures and smaller economies in size, making them more vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to reach 3% this year, its lowest level since the global financial crisis. However, the United States – the world’s largest economy, would not escape to the effects of climate change. The U.S. could see its growth rate reduced by more than 1% over the next three decades as a result of climate change. The National Bureau of Economic Research had highlighted in August that growth per capita in the U.S. could shrink by 10.5% over the next 81 years amid expected higher temperatures across the globe. “The EIU’s climate change model calculates that by 2050, the U.S. economy will be 1.1% smaller than it would have been in the absence of climate change,” the EIU report said. “Recent events in the U.S. have demonstrated the serious vulnerabilities that exist even in major developed economies,” the EIU highlighted in its study, mentioning the higher frequency and intensity in wildfires seen in California. Last year, a U.S. government report said that climate change would cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. That same report was dismissed by the White House, Reuters reported. World leaders are set to meet in early December in Madrid, Spain, at the UN climate change conference. The various leaders will be discussing how to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius – a core aim of the Paris Climate accord, agreed in 2015. Nonetheless, the U.S. began earlier this month the official process of withdrawing from the Paris agreement. The United States argued that the climate deal imposes an “unfair” economic burden.
Pope Francis proposes Adding ‘Ecological Sin’ to Church Teachings -- Pope Francis, who has made the environment a signature cause of his pontificate, said he was strongly considering adding the category of “ecological sin” to the Catholic Church’s official compendium of teachings.Pope Francis has stressed the importance of environmental protection since his election in 2013. He dedicated an entire encyclical, “Laudato Si,’” published in 2015, to the topic.In that document, he called global warming a major threat to life on the planet and called for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. He also blamed the global market economy for plundering the earth at the expense of the poor and future generaions.In 2016, the pope added environmentalism, or “care for our common home,” to the Catholic Church’s traditional seven works of mercy. He also added it to the Beatitudes, the core set of Christian ideals such as meekness and mercy enunciated by Jesus in the Bible, saying: “Blessed are those who protect and care for our common home.”On Friday, he said he was considering going further. “We must introduce—we are thinking—into the Catechism of the Catholic Church the sin against ecology, the ecological sin against the common home, because it’s a duty,” the pope told an audience of legal experts at the Vatican. He noted that bishops from the Amazon region meeting at the Vatican in October had defined ecological sin as an “action or omission against God, against others, the community and the environment. It is a sin against future generations and is manifested in the acts and habits of pollution and destruction of the harmony of the environment.”
'Time Is Up': Campaigners Occupy Pelosi's Office, Launch Global Hunger Strike for Climate Action - The global grassroots movement Extinction Rebellion Monday is targeting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with a hunger strike and demanding that the Democratic leader embrace bold climate action as have progressive lawmakers around the country. The group told Pelosi a week ago that members would begin a hunger strike Monday unless the California Democrat agreed to a one-hour, on-camera meeting to discuss Extinction Rebellion's demands for concrete climate action.On Twitter, the group announced that Pelosi's time was up and that at least 20 young activists would occupy the speaker's Washington, D.C. office until she meets with them. Extinction Rebellion live-streamed the demonstration on social media. Giovanni Tamacas, an organizer of the hunger strike, read from a letter sent to Pelosi as the action began Monday. "We won't be patronized by a meeting with your staff, or a meeting in the distant future, or a five minute conversation, or an impromptu talk," the letter reads. "Meet with us or leave us to starve while you jet to your Thanksgiving feasts and cocktail parties in the glow of a burning world. It is with a heavy heart that we will deny ourselves our basic needs. May our pain finally sound the alarm." The group rebuked Pelosi for "turning a blind eye" to the rapidly warming climate, wildfires raging throughout her home state, melting glaciers, and millions of climate refugees even as she says in speeches that "there is no time left to deny the reality of climate change." Despite that rhetoric, Extinction Rebellion said, Pelosi has hamstrung attempts to push for wide-reaching climate legislation by creating a congressional committee that has no subpoena power or ability to draft bills. Pelosi herself has not joined more than 100 members of Congress in co-sponsoring Green New Deal legislation, which is supported by a majority of Americans, including 86 percent of Democratic voters, according to recent polling. Extinction Rebellion's demands—conveyed over the last several months at rallies where attendees have spent weeks occupying public spaces, at nurse-ins in London, and now with the hunger strike—are that government leaders "tell the truth" about the climate by declaring a climate emergency; commit to passing legislation that would reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2025; and establish a citizens' assembly on climate justice to center the concerns of frontline communities.
Democrats unveil first bill toward goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 - Democrats unveiled the first major piece of legislation in their effort to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with a bill that would first push government agencies to reach the goal. Dubbed the 100 Percent Clean Economy Act, the bill directs the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to oversee the effort which would be undertaken across the government. It tasks each federal agency with using its authority to reach the net-zero goal, using “a substantial change from business-as-usual policies.” “The Federal Government can and must play a leading role in global efforts to minimize climate change and to mitigate its worst effects. By achieving a 100 percent clean economy by 2050, the United States can take a critical step toward meeting that obligation,” the bill states. The bill is the first in what might be several pieces of legislation dedicated to Democrats' goal of reaching a green economy by 2050 — a vision they outlined in July and promised to deliver by the end of the year. “We must boldly transition to a 100 percent clean economy. The 100 Percent Clean Economy Act of 2019 will protect public health and our environment; create high-quality green jobs that will strengthen our economy; and mitigate the impacts of climate change for all communities and all generations. Our climate crisis demands immediate action,” said Rep. A. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) Each agency must come up with a plan that’s technology neutral, crafting a policy consistent with their goals and authority. Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) described the bill as setting “a clear science-based target as our true North and directs federal agencies to pursue it. The bill has over 150 co-sponsors and the backing of eight national public health and medical organizations.
A Military Draft to Confront Climate Change? - Because of climate change, “all hell is breaking loose,” and the only institution capable of handling it is …. the military? Absolutely, says (Ret.) Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, professor of history, friend of TAC, and a familiar critic of U.S. militarism, at a talk sponsored by the All-Volunteer Force Forum Tuesday. Wilkerson has been quite vocal about the degradation of the forces from endless war, but here, in the context of addressing future crisis, he makes a not so modest proposal to in part, fix it.Bring back the draft. Melting glaciers, monster storms, droughts, famine and disease—all are having very real impacts on already very fragile regions in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and in the Arctic, not to mention our own hemisphere. “A real threat to our national security,” he said. What I’m saying is, contrary to the idea that we can reduce the military…we’re probably going to have to have lots of troops to meet a crisis that is indeed existential—not to kill for the state or to foment war, but to provide military assistance in disaster relief,” Wilkerson, who served as Secretary of State Colin Powell’s chief of staff from 2002-2005, pointed to recent cataclysmic storms right here in the U.S. for which tens of thousands of National Guard troops were deployed to respond. What if they were more simultaneous, or had coincided with an attack on U.S. interests overseas? Add all that to the tsunamis and typhoons in East Asia, the rising waters in the Arctic (which already is shaping into a geopolitical security situation), the expanding desert in the Sahara, not to mention fires and flooding all over the Third World. All pose serious humanitarian, economic, and security implications for millions of people, including the United States. Wilkerson is part of the Climate Security and Advisory Group, of which a number of retired military in Washington like himself, along with various experts in the security world, have been studying the effects of climate change on national security and enjoining what he says is a growing number of active duty and DoD staff. Wilkerson claims the services need to ramp up well beyond the current 1.5 million active duty and reserve ranks—perhaps even beyond the peak of 12 million by the end of World War Two—to face the challenges. “You’re not going to do that with an all-volunteer military.” So this is where the draft comes in, and according Wilkerson, it will not only help solve the problem of facing future crisis, but returning policy to the people. How many would have supported the Iraq War if there was a draft? Would we still be fighting Vietnam if there were an all-volunteer army then?
German Farmers Block Hamburg In Revolt Against Globalist Environmental Regulations -German farmers are blocking roads in Hamburg with their tractors to protest against environment regulations as the rural revolt against globalism spreads across Europe. 4,000 tractors arrived in Hamburg yesterday in a massive rebuke to what protesters assert is government bullying amidst efforts to impose Green New Deal-style control measures. Regional environment ministers were meeting to discuss plans to ban certain weed killers and fertilizers, something that farmers insist will kill their livelihoods. Placards displayed on the tractors included one that read, “No farm, no food, no future,” with farmers expressing their fury at being blamed while their contribution to the economy is ignored and ministers refuse to engage in dialogue with them. 4.000 Landwirte protestieren heute in #Hamburg bei der #umkhh2019. Die #Treckerdemo sorgt für erhebliche Verkehrsbehinderungen. pic.twitter.com/rz3iIY3Cd0 — ZDF Hamburg (@ZDFhamburg) November 14, 2019 “The rules, which are coming from the German government, are so hard for us that we can’t work on our farms,” Klaus-Peter Lucht, Vice President of the regional Farmers Association, told RT. “We can’t make good crops. We can’t have good fodder for the dairy [cows].” The kilometer long convoys of tractors caused “considerable traffic disruption” across the city, according to authorities.Hamburg is just the latest site of a rural revolt against globalism that is sweeping Europe.Last month, thousands of Dutch farmers descended on the Netherlands capital to protest against a government proposal that livestock production be slashed by up to 50% in the name of preventing global warming. Demonstrators were angry that the same restrictions they may be hit with will not apply to the aviation industry.
Coldplay's Chris Martin says band will not tour its new album due to environment concerns - Coldplay is one of the biggest bands in the world, racking up millions of record sales and packing out stadiums with adoring fans wherever they play. With a new record due for release Friday, you would expect the band to embark on a huge tour to promote it. Not so, with the their singer citing sustainability as a concern.“We’re not touring this album,” Chris Martin told the BBC in an interview.“We’re taking time over the next year or two, to work out how our tour can not only be sustainable [but] how can it be actively beneficial,” Martin told the broadcaster, going on to add that the band would be “disappointed” if its next tour was not carbon neutral. “The hardest thing is the flying side of things,” Martin explained to the BBC, adding that the band’s dream was to “have a show with no single use plastic, to have it largely solar powered.” The band is currently in Jordan, where it will play two shows on Friday to promote its new album, Everyday Life. A gig at the Natural History Museum in London will follow on Monday. In a statement issued on its website earlier this week, Coldplay’s decision, and Martin’s mention of flying, chimes with growing concerns about aviation and its impact on the environment, with high profile activists such as Greta Thunberg seeking to increase public awareness of the issue.According to the European Aviation Environmental Report for 2019, domestic and international aviation accounted for 3.6% of European Union member states’ greenhouse gas emissions in 2016.
Globalists Openly Admit To Population Control Agenda - And That's A Bad Sign -- Eugenics and population control are long time hobbies of the financial elites. In the early 1900's, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Carnegie Institute were deeply involved in promoting Eugenics laws in the US. These laws led to the forced sterilization of over 60,000 American citizens in states like California and thousands of rejected marriage licenses. The Eugenics programs in the US were only a beta test though, as the Rockefellers then transferred their programs over to Germany under Hitler and the Third Reich in the 1930's, were a true widespread eugenics-based population control program was introduced. In the late 1960's into the 1970's there was a resurgence of population control rhetoric coming out of globalist circles. Under the supervision of the UN and some related scientific groups, the Club Of Rome was formed. A prominent part of the Club of Rome's agenda was population reduction. In 1972 the group of “scientists” under the UN's direction published a paper called 'The Limits Of Growth', which called for greatly reduced human population in the name of “saving the environment”. The elites had found a new scientific front for their eugenics obsession: Climate science. In the early 1990's the Club Of Rome published a book called 'The First Global Revolution'. In it they state: “In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interactions these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes. and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself.” The statement comes from Chapter 5 – The Vacuum, which covers their position on the need for global government. The quote is relatively clear; a common enemy must be conjured in order to trick humanity into uniting under a single banner, and the elites see environmental catastrophe, caused by mankind itself, as the best possible motivator. It also outlines the perfect rationale for population control – Mankind is the enemy, therefore, mankind as a species must be kept under strict supervision and his proliferation must be restricted.
Planned Fossil Fuel Production Would Put Paris Agreement Goals Out of Reach, Report Finds --Governments are producing fossil fuels at a rate 120 percent above compliance with Paris agreement goals, a landmark report from the UN Environment Programme found. Planned fossil fuel extraction by 2030 would also double what would be required to limit warming to two degrees celsius. This puts the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to "well below" two degrees far out of range and hampers nations' ability to meaningfully address the climate crisis. An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released in October 2018 warned that even two degrees of warming would have catastrophic consequences. "We're in a deep hole – and we need to stop digging," Måns Nilsson, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), which helped produce the report, told The Guardian. "Despite more than two decades of climate policymaking, fossil fuel production levels are higher than ever." The report looked at the plans of 10 counties, the executive summary explained: seven top fossil fuel producers China, the U.S., Russia, India, Australia, Indonesia and Canada; and three countries that both produce significant amounts of fossil fuels and have made ambitious climate plans — Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom. The report also found that there is a gap between the nations' stated climate policies and the amount of fossil fuels they plan to produce. The production plans outlined in the report surpass what would be consistent with the countries' Paris agreement commitments. The so-called "production gap" found in the report is therefore greater than the "emissions gap" between the Paris agreement goals and actual national policies. "The discrepancy between national policies ― the climate change policies and fossil fuel production policies ― highlights there is much more that needs to be done both at country level and international climate negotiations to put a sharpened and increased focus on fossil fuels," The production gap was especially wide when it came to coal, the report found. Countries plan to produce 150 percent more coal by 2030 than would be consisted with two degrees of warming, and 280 percent more than would be consistent with 1.5 degrees.
Soaring Fossil Fuel Production Is On Track To Blow Past Climate Goals, New Study Finds - The world’s top 10 fossil fuel-producing countries are on track to extract far more oil, gas and coal by 2030 than scientists say the planet can handle without experiencing catastrophic warming, according to a report published Wednesday. The first-of-its-kind analysis ― conducted by scientists at six organizations, including the nonprofit Stockholm Environment Institute and the United Nations Environment Programme ― measured for the so-called production gap between the goals set in the 2015 Paris climate accord and projections for fossil fuel production in China, the United States, Russia, India, Australia, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom. The findings lay bare a stark contradiction between the amount of climate-changing emissions nations pledged to cut over the next decade and many of those countries’ plans to expand fossil fuel drilling, which “further hinders the collective ability of countries to stabilize the climate system, including closing the emissions gap,” the report stated. The assessment, the scientists said, suggests tighter restrictions on fossil fuel production are urgently needed to avert climate disaster in the decades to come. “The discrepancy between national policies ― the climate change policies and fossil fuel production policies ― highlights there is much more that needs to be done both at country level and international climate negotiations to put a sharpened and increased focus on fossil fuels,” Niklas Hagelberg, the U.N. Environment Programme’s climate change coordinator, said on a call with reporters Tuesday morning. Assuming the fuels extracted will be burned, the combined oil, gas and coal production is on pace to be 50% higher than would be consistent with a goal to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages ― the target to which nearly every country on Earth agreed in the Paris Agreement. Coal mining alone is 150% greater than the production goal that would keep warming in that zone, despite the conventional narrative that coal production is declining. The numbers are even starker when it comes to keeping average temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the threshold beyond which United Nations scientists last year projected hundreds of millions would die and islands and coastal cities would face catastrophic sea-level rise. Fossil fuel production overall is 120% higher than would be consistent with a 1.5 degrees scenario. Coal projections are 280% higher.
Coal Knew Too: Explosive Report Shows Industry Was Aware of Climate Threat as Far Back as 1966 --A new report shows conclusively that the coal industry was aware of the climate impacts of burning fossil fuels as far back as 1966—and, like other sectors of the fossil fuel industry with knowledge of the consequences of their business model, did next to nothing about it. The revelation was published in an article by Élan Young at HuffPost Friday."It wasn't just big oil that knew about climate change decades ago," tweeted HuffPost editor Kate Sheppard.The story uses a discovery by Chris Cherry, professor of civil engineering at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, to show industry foreknowledge of the ramifications of extractive technologies over 50 years ago. Cherry found the evidence in a 1966 copy of the Mining Congress Journal he was given by his father-in-law. In the journal, James R. Garvey, president of now-defunct research firm Bituminous Coal Research Inc., describes the future consequences of coal."There is evidence that the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere is increasing rapidly as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels," Garvey wrote. "If the future rate of increase continues as it is at the present, it has been predicted that, because the CO2 envelope reduces radiation, the temperature of the earth's atmosphere will increase and that vast changes in the climates of the earth will result."Garvey added that the result of the changes in climate could include melting icecaps and rising seas. "Such changes in temperature will cause melting of the polar icecaps, which, in turn, would result in the inundation of many coastal cities, including New York and London," wrote Garvey.
Do The World's Energy Policies Make Sense? - by Gail Tverberg - The world today has a myriad of energy policies. One of them seems to be to encourage renewables, especially wind and solar. Another seems to be to encourage electric cars. A third seems to be to try to move away from fossil fuels. Countries in Europe and elsewhere have been trying carbon taxes. There are alsoprograms to buy carbon offsets for energy uses such as air travel. Maybe it is time to step back and take a look. Where are we now? Where are we really headed? Have the policies implemented since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 had any positive impact? Let’s look at some of the issues involved.
- [1] We have had very little success in reducing CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions for all countries, in total, have been spiraling upward, year after year.If we look at the situation by part of the world, we see an even more concerning pattern. The group US+EU+Japan has been able to reduce its CO2 emissions by 5% since 2005. Emissions were slowly rising between 1981 and 2005. There was a dip at the time of the Great Recession of 2008-2009, followed by a downward trend. A person might get the impression that CO2 emissions for the EU tend to rise during periods when the economy is doing well and tend to fall when it is doing poorly. The group that has more than doubled its emissions includes many countries, including China and India, that ramped up their manufacturing and other heavy industry in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the World Trade Organization added members.
- [2] Population growth has followed a pattern that is in some ways similar to CO2 growth.
- [3] Deforestation keeps growing as a world problem. - High Income Countries keep pushing the deforestation problem to the poorer parts of the world. Heavily Indebted Poor Countries are especially affected. Worldwide, deforestation continues to grow.
- [4] With respect to fossil fuels, there is a great deal of confusion with respect to, “What do we need to be saved from?” Do we have a problem with too much or too little fossil fuel? We hear two different stories. Climate modelers keep telling us about what could happen, if indeed we use too much fossil fuel. In fact, the climate currently is changing, bolstering this point of view. It seems to me that there is an equally great danger of collapse, accompanied by low energy prices.
- [5] Early studies overestimated how much help renewables might provide, especially if our problem comes from too little energy supply rather than too much. Renewables look like they would be great from many points of view, but when it comes down to the real world situation, they don’t live up to the hype. One issue is that while wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, and other devices for capturing energy are called “renewables,” they are really only available through the use of the fossil fuel system. They are made using fossil fuels. If a part breaks, or if insects eat away the insulation on wires, replacements need to be made using the fossil fuel system and transported using the fossil fuel system. At best, renewables should be considered fossil fuel extenders, using less fossil fuels than conventional electricity generation.
- [6] Looking at the actual outcomes, a person might ask, “What in the world were policymakers really thinking about?” - If a person really wants to reduce CO2 emissions, it is easy to see how to do it. A person simply has to take steps in the direction of reducing global co-operation. One step would be to reduce international trade. Another would be to get rid of umbrella organizations such as the World Trade Organization, the United Nations and the European Union. In fact, within individual countries, the top level of government could be removed, leaving (for example) the provinces of Canada and the states of the United States. In other words, policymakers could push economies in the direction of collapse.
- [7] The scenarios considered by the IPCC climate model need to be revisited. A climate model looks to the past and tries to forecast what would happen in alternative “scenarios.” The concern I have is that the scenarios evaluated are not realistic. To get to the level of CO2 that would produce the most extreme scenarios, coal production would needed to continue at a high level for many, many years. This seems unrealistic because world coal production has been fairly flat for several years, and prices tend to be lower than producers require if they are to stay in business. The likely direction for coal production seems to be down, rather than up. It seems to me that climate modelers should be considering more realistic scenarios regarding CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. One scenario which should be considered is the possible near term collapse of several governmental organizations, such as the European Union, World Trade Organization, and the governments of several oil exporting countries.
- [8] The push toward renewables makes little sense without a firmer foundation than currently exists. Early studies looked only at the cost of renewables themselves, without the cost of extra long-distance grid transportation and battery storage. Such an estimate makes renewables look far more valuable than they really are. We now have enough experience that we can see what goes wrong. A hydroelectric plant that operates during the wet season in a tropical country may be of little practical use, for example, if there is no fossil fuel energy available to provide backup electricity production during the dry season. The total cost of the overlapping systems needs to be taken into consideration, including the need to hire staff year around for both the fossil fuel and hydroelectric facilities. Electricity transmission will likely be needed for both types of generation.
Why Banning Fossil Fuel Investment Is A Huge Mistake - Activist global warming strategies have now caused the European Investment Bank to ban its fossil fuel project funding. After more than a year of internal and external lobbying by several EU member states and an ever-growing list of activist NGO and pressure groups, the EIB has decided to cut its financial support for all new fossil fuel projects by 2021. It will also support €1 trillion of investments in climate action and environmental sustainability. This is meant to force European countries to put an end to new gas-fueled power projects and keep in line with the Paris Agreements and EU CO2 emission targets. EIB VP Andrew McDowell stated to the press that the EIB’s new energy lending policy, seen as a landmark decision, has been approved with “overwhelming” support. He reiterated that it will bar investments or financing for most fossil fuel projects, including those that employ the traditional use of natural gas. There is still a small loophole for fossil fuel projects, as the EIB funding will still be available for projects that can show they can produce one kilowatt-hour of energy while emitting less than 250g of carbon dioxide. New technologies could therefore be the savior in the end for traditional gas-burning power plants.The significance of this decision by the EIB cannot be understated.As a major financial institution, a wide range of energy-related projects inside and outside of the EU, such as gas pipeline projects in Central Asia, Turkey and the recent discussions on East Med offshore gas projects, are now being endangered. While various Green Parties and environmental NGOs are celebrating this move as a major victory, it is a victory that comes with some real risks. The decision, which was largely inevitable after that EU finance ministers unanimously agreed to initiate stricter measures to combat climate change, will put more pressure on all parties to phase out gas, oil and coal projects.Non-EU projects will be hit hardest, as they will have a much more difficult time trying to find enough lending support for new projects. EIB support has always been an important piece of the energy puzzle, with third parties using it as leverage to arrange finance consortia to start up new gas-related projects. The decision by the EIB and the EU finance ministers is very much a political one, not based on real assessments of the overall energy market situation inside of the EU, or taking into account economic and geopolitical risks for the regions bordering the EU. Brussels has, for decades, been targeting a higher level of security of energy supply (mainly gas) in order to wean Europe off its Russian gas addiction. This strategy has been far from a success story, with European countries today seemingly more addicted than ever to Russian gas.
The Capital Stock Turnover Problem for 100% Clean Energy Targets - Scientists say we must reach zero emissions by 2050 to avoid locking in dangerous levels of climate change, but while overall emissions have declined from power-sector decarbonization, stubbornly hard-to-reduce transportation and buildings emissions are still growing. Even with aggressive electric vehicle and building electrification mandates, these two sectors are hard to decarbonize due to slow capital stock turnover — the process whereby old equipment, such as vehicles and appliances, is replaced with new equipment. Capital stock turnover makes net-zero emissions harder to reach with every year we wait to start electrifying our vehicles and buildings. EV adoption is accelerating, and new all-electric homes are less expensive than mixed-fuel homes, but Americans won’t replace our several hundred million existing gasoline vehicles and fossil-fueled appliances for decades to come. This creates significant lag time between setting all-electric sales targets and achieving the goal of all-electric fleets. And it only leaves a few opportunities to convert each vehicle or building, potentially locking in emissions at a level above the 2050 net-zero target. While targets for a 100 percent clean-energy economy are important, policymakers must align their policy timelines and benchmark targets with the stubborn reality of capital stock turnover. Energy Information Administration data shows U.S. electricity was nearly 40 percent carbon-free in 2018. This trend must continue to ensure electrification is a viable pathway to cut transportation and building emissions. These net-zero commitments are imperative. But slow capital stock turnover means meeting these 30-year goals requires immediate acceleration of all-electric vehicle and building component market share as well as finding ways to accelerate the turnover process itself. Capital stock turnover and the average lifetime of vehicles and buildings (as well as building components) means we have one or two opportunities for clean replacement by 2050.
Amid Blackout, a California Tribal Village Kept Lights On With Solar Energy - Building renewable energy projects is about more than just post-fossil fuel economics. It’s about the future of electrification in this country. Think of it this way: This past month, Pacific Gas and Electric, northern California’s largest northern utility, blacked out 500,000 homes because of forest fires; last year’s Paradise Fire was actually caused by PG&E Lines. As fires raged, fanned by climate change and poor infrastructure, there were still lights on at the Blue Lake Rancheria, a Wiyot, Yurok and Hupa village near Eureka, California – with a megawatt of solar and a battery backup system. Energy leadership is coming from Native people. Adopting a climate action plan in 2008, the tribe mobilized every resource at its disposal to advance a leading-edge strategy for eliminating its carbon footprint while bolstering climate resiliency. To date, the Tribe has reduced energy consumption by 35%and reduced greenhouse gas emissions 40%, utilizing biodiesel to power public buses and aggressive energy efficiency measures. Back in the Obama administration, Blue Lake was recognized as one of 16 communities designated as White House Climate Action Champions. The grid went down, and the tribe still had solar. That’s a covenant, a deal with future generations. Change comes, it’s a question of who controls the change. Looking down the barrel of a bad pipeline, I know that we don’t need to make a deal with the devil. North Dakota and Enbridge: Go grow your food with oil — I’m going to grow my gardens with water; I’m going to commit to solar and renewables. Let’s see who will eat.
Solar panels are good for the environment and your wallet, but are they safe? They are marketed as budget and eco-friendly, but there is one thing you may not hear in the solar panel sales pitch: fire hazard. Boston 25 Investigates has been looking at a rash of fires in Massachusetts that appear to be linked to solar panels, following a tip from a viewer about a roof fire at his home in Carver. A review of state and federal data indicates fires caused by solar panels are rare, but an analysis of news stories and fire department reports reveals the official numbers do not tell the whole story. Our investigation found solar panel fires are not uniformly reported by fire departments and there is no central nor comprehensive database that collects this information. Dave and Stephanie Burek had a small fire but a big scare in their Dartmouth home last year. It was May 2018 when a fire had burned a hole in the roof near the bedroom that their two young children – 7 months and 3 years old – sleep in. The fire occurred in a panel located behind a closet in their children's room and charred their attic ceiling. The Dartmouth Fire Department traced the fire to, "a wire from the solar panels," according to the fire report. After the fire, the Bureks had their solar panels removed. Pictures of the aftermath show burned wires and electrical components on the backside of the solar panel. They rented their system from SolarCity in 2015, one year before Tesla bought the company. "When they were taking the panel off the roof, the Tesla worker said 'Oh, it was a bad connector. It looks like a bad connector,'" recalls Stephanie.
The world is getting windier and it could mean a big boost for alternative energy - The world is getting windier, which means a surge in wind-generated power could be coming.A new study led by Princeton University researchers found that from 1978 to 2010 wind speeds decreased by about 2.3% per decade, but that things began to shift in 2010. Between 2010 and 2017 speeds increased roughly 7%, which means that an average wind turbine produced 17% more energy in 2017 than in 2010.The findings in the report, which was published Monday in Nature, were based on data analysis from more than 1,400 weather stations spread across mid-latitude countries primarily in North America, Europe and Asia.Traditionally scientists have argued that vegetation and urbanization levels are the primary factors that influence land wind speeds. But these researchers argue that wind speeds are actually driven by ocean-atmosphere oscillations, which in the simplest of terms represent changes in heat and pressure.Ocean oscillations have long been cited as the determining force for offshore wind speeds, but by comparing changes in land wind speeds with well-documented oceanic shifts, the researchers found that oceanic shifts could also be behind wind speeds on land.The findings are “valuable for the wind energy sector” since wind speed trends tend to develop over decades. The report said that the pickup in wind speeds “bodes well for the expansion of large-scale and efficient wind power generation systems,” and found that if present trends continue, energy generated by wind power will increase 37% by 2024. Examining ocean-atmosphere oscillations could also help companies predict future wind speeds and therefore “allow optimization of turbines for expected speeds during their productive life spans.” This is especially true since the researchers noted that while wind speeds are projected to rise in the near-term, in the longer-term they could once again reverse course and slow
Fishing industry raps proposed wind energy grid - Worcester, MA - Commercial fishing interests are pushing back on the idea that each of the offshore wind developers holding leases off the New England coast would place their turbines in a uniform layout to create a navigable grid, a proposal the developers said is intended to address the concerns of fishermen. Installing all turbines in fixed east-to-west rows and north-to-south columns spaced one nautical mile apart, the developers said, would create a grid across the seven lease areas and hundreds of predictable navigation corridors for fishermen and other mariners. It could also address one of the concerns thought to have led to the federal government effectively freezing the Vineyard Wind 1 project until it can learn more about the new industry as a whole. In a joint statement announcing the proposal Tuesday morning, the five developers said their proposal would mirror an arrangement that is “preferred by many stakeholders, including fishermen operating in the region.” “This uniform layout is consistent with the requests of the region’s fisheries industry and other maritime users,” the five leaseholders - Equinor, Mayflower Wind, Orsted, Eversource and Vineyard Wind - said in a statement. “The proposed layout specifies that turbines will be spaced 1 nautical mile (nm) apart, arranged in east-west rows and north-south columns, with the rows and columns continuous across all New England lease areas.” But the claim that the newly proposed layout would satisfy the requests of the fishing industry did not entirely hold up once the developers’ plan was released publicly Tuesday morning. An organization that advocates on behalf of the scallop industry - which accounted for 80% of the value of landings in New Bedford, the highest-value commercial fishing port in the country in 2017 - said its members were not consulted and the developers’ proposal does not reflect the concerns of the scallop industry.
Western Pa. lawmakers fight Gov. Wolf on Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative -A group of lawmakers from Western Pennsylvania is challenging Gov. Tom Wolf’s effort to make Pennsylvania a member of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), saying the resulting carbon tax will hurt the state’s energy sector and consumers. The legislators said Tuesday that Wolf does not have the authority to pursue RGGI membership unilaterally and must consult with the General Assembly. “He does not have the authority to tax. It’s very basic,” said state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, R-Cranberry, chairman of the House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee. The lawmakers plan to introduce House Bill 2025 and Senate Bill 950, both of which would require legislative approval of Wolf’s October executive order instructing the state Department of Environmental Protection to join the RGGI. “This unilateral attempt by the governor simply should not occur,” said state Sen. Joe Pittman, R-Indiana. “We seek to ensure that our constitutional separation of powers remains intact.” Wolf committed Pennsylvania to RGGI membership in October, instructing the DEP to draft a regulation to present to the Environmental Quality Board by July 2020. Such membership is part of Wolf’s effort to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change.
Cost, comfort emphasized as building electrification takes off in Colorado - Comfort, not climate, is the central message of a campaign in Colorado to persuade homeowners to switch from natural gas to electricity for heating and other indoor purposes. The joint program sponsored by Boulder and Boulder County, called Comfort 365, may provide insights for state legislators as they consider how to drive down emissions from the built environment in order to achieve the sobering goal of wringing carbon out of 90% of the state’s economy by 2040. “For us to meet our carbon reduction goals, we have to take as many of the fossil fuels as possible out of the equation, and that includes natural gas and propane,” said David Hatchimonji, manager of Boulder County’s EnergySmart Residential Program. Boulder County, which stretches from cornfields of the Great Plains to the Continental Divide, set a goal of 90% reduction by midcentury. Boulder, the county’s largest city and a partner in the program, aims for 80%. “Why ‘Comfort 365’ as opposed to ‘Carbon Reduction 365’ or ‘Save the World 365?’ We want to convey that the technology can result in a much more comfortable home and, all things considered, a safer home in that you don’t have the air quality issues associated with carbon monoxide and other contaminants that come from natural gas use,” Hatchimonji said. “We want folks to save energy, to be able to have a positive impact on their environment. Their families can be warm in winter and cool in the summer with a heat pump.”
Cement has a carbon problem. Here are some concrete solutions. | Grist --The biggest carbon polluters don’t always advertise that fact loudly. In fact, one of the industries with the worst climate impact is all but ignored, even though its product literally supports our existence. I’m talking about the cement industry, which dumps more than 2 billion tons of carbon into the air each year to make its ubiquitous building material, roughly three times as much as the aviation industry. To make cement, you have to heat limestone to nearly 1,500 degrees C. Unfortunately, the most efficient way to get a cement kiln that hot is to burn lots of coal, which, along with other fossil fuel energy sources, accounts for 40 percent of the industry’s emissions. Eventually, the limestone breaks down into calcium oxide (also known as lime) and releases CO2, which goes straight into the atmosphere, accounting for a further 60 percent of the industry’s emissions. The good news is that there’s no shortage of ideas for how to slim down cement’s weighty carbon footprint. The bad news is that most of them are either in their infancy or face significant barriers to adoption. As our window of time for preventing catastrophic climate change grows ever smaller, we need major investments in new technologies and changes to how the cement industry works. But most of all, we need politicians need to wake up to the fact that the cement industry has a climate problem. It’s time for some concrete solutions. One of the most straightforward ways of putting a dent in cement’s carbon emissions would be to find cleaner-burning fuels that are capable of heating a cement kiln. Some alternatives to fossil fuels are available today, like wood, agricultural waste, and even car tires. Despite how that last one sounds, Jeremy Gregory, executive director of the Concrete Sustainability Hub at MIT, says spent tires a “great source of energy,” and cement kilns are one of the most effective ways to dispose of them.
'Hanging by its fingernails': U.S. biodiesel industry struggles without subsidy - (Reuters) - When John Whittington shut his Morristown, Indiana, biodiesel plant this week, he felt he had no choice. A $1-per-gallon subsidy that had been propping up the industry since 2005 lapsed at the beginning of 2018 due to Congressional inaction, and his hopes for a swift renewal had been declining along with his business ever since.. “To me, the support systems of the industry have failed.” Integrity Biofuels’ shutdown marks the tenth biodiesel facility to have idled this year after the lapse in the biodiesel credit, putting about 250 people out of work, according to the National Biodiesel Board (NBB). Nationwide production has decreased about 10% year-on-year, according to Energy Information Administration data. The biodiesel credit was part of a broad legislative effort more than a decade ago to help farmers and reduce petroleum imports by supporting biofuels. At a cost of nearly $2 billion per year, it is among the most expensive U.S. energy subsidy programs. Its lapse has added pressure on Midwest farmers, a key constituency in the 2020 presidential election already struggling under poor planting conditions and the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. In August, some 90 U.S. facilities produced 156 million gallons of the fuel - made from agricultural oils, recycled cooking oil and animal fats - from 172 million gallons a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administratihere Other plants that have cut production include facilities run by players like Flint Hills Resources, World Energy and REG.
The Trouble With Biofuels - A ruckus over biofuels has been brewing in Iowa. For months now the Trump administration has been promising to deliver a new biofuels package that would boost the market for production of soy- and corn-based alternative fuels. The move would help American farmers hurt by the administration's tariffs, as well as ease their anger over changing regulations that have exempted several oil refineries from blending biofuels with their other fuels. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandated that all fuels produced in the U.S. contain a minimum volume of renewable fuels. Part of that came in the form of biofuels, derived from living, renewable sources such as crops or plants. The term "biofuels" generally refers to the gasoline substitute derived from corn, while "biodiesel" is a diesel substitute derived from soybean oil or animal fats. At the time many experts predicted biofuels would provide a renewable source of energy, help reduce the use of fossil fuels, and lessen the risks of climate change. After the Act was passed, the biofuels market jolted into life. "By 2010 ethanol was up there with animal feed as the largest consumer of corn." Last year total U.S. biofuel production reached 16 billion gallons a year, Advocates of biofuels around the country tout them as better for the environment than fossil fuels, a fact that polls tell us the public doesn't disagree with.Scientists, on the other hand, have begun to question some of those environmental benefits. According to some studies, biodiesels emit more of certain pollutants than regular diesel, and biofuels can have alarger carbon footprint than gasoline, depending on where you start in the production cycle. These findings don't seem to enter the public discourse.Increased corn production can also harm farmland because it causes farmers to cut back on crop rotation, a process essential to maintaining soil quality and reducing pests. Farmers also have an increased incentive to plant corn in ecologically sensitive grassland or wetlands. But the effects of biofuel production on wildlife and public health are subtle and hard to separate from the consequences of food production. This sets biodiesel apart from other sources of pollution and environmental health, such as fracking, which are often much more immediately visible. For example, images of brown tap water were enough to mobilize national opposition to fracking. Intensified corn production doesn't generate such arresting sights. Corn requires more fertilizer than other crops, and the toxic algal bloom caused by fertilizer runoff into the rivers is a visible consequence of increased corn production to meet biofuel demand. However, these blooms occur out of sight in the Gulf of Mexico.
BIOFUELS: Bill targets RFS, a 'well-intentioned flop' -- Two Democratic lawmakers proposed legislation yesterday to cut corn ethanol production while encouraging farmers to convert cropland into pasture and wildlife habitat.
California to stop buying from automakers that backed Trump in emissions battle -- California has announced plans to stop buying vehicles from automakers that backed President Trump during the state’s battle over whether it can set tougher emissions standards. The California Department of General Services issued a statement Friday saying the state plans to end purchases from automakers that have not committed to following California’s tailpipe emission regulations, including General Motors, Toyota and Fiat Chrysler, by January. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) tweeted Monday confirming the announcement. General Motors, Toyota and Fiat Chrysler have taken the president’s side as he loosens Obama-era restrictions on tailpipe emissions and takes steps to prevent California from having its own regulations. The state bought $58.6 million worth of vehicles from General Motors, $55.8 million from Fiat Chrysler and $10.6 million from Toyota between 2016 and 2018, according to Reuters. California buys between 2,000 and 3,000 vehicles a year, The New York Times reported. California will now obtain vehicles from Ford, Honda, Volkswagen and BMW, the four automakers that have committed to following the state’s regulations, according to the Times. The Department of Justice issued subpoenas against those four automakers earlier this month, saying if they coordinated, they could violate antitrust laws. The state also announced that it plans to stop purchasing sedans that are "solely powered by an internal combustion engine," except for public safety vehicles. General Motors said in a statement to Reuters that California’s decision was unfortunate. “Removing vehicles like the Chevy Bolt and prohibiting GM and other manufacturers from consideration will reduce California’s choices for affordable, American-made electric vehicles and limit its ability to reach its goal of minimizing the state government’s carbon footprint, a goal that GM shares,” spokeswoman Jeannine Ginivan said.
Electric-Car Onset Leaves Lubricant Industry Facing Kodak’s Fate - The $146 billion lubricants industry is at risk of suffering the same fate as Kodak, thanks to the rise of electric vehicles. From Volkswagen AG to Nissan Motor Co., carmakers are switching to battery-powered models that use fewer greases than combustion vehicles. With demand expected to decline from 2025, lubricant makers are wary of Eastman Kodak’s demise when it failed to grasp the potential of the digital camera in the 1970s. For decades, lubricant makers have been preoccupied with squeezing more fuel efficiency from combustion engines and increasing the mileage between oil changes. EVs present a new set of challenges to their piston counterparts that typically use 40 different oils. They need a grease that can cool and lubricate the motor, while also protecting the electronics on-board and being compatible with non-metal materials like plastics. “I’m very conscious of the world changing,” said Dave Hall, a 30-year industry veteran who is overhauling BP Plc’s line-up of Castrol lubricants for the EV market. “I’d like to think we’re trying to address and prevent a Kodak moment and not just lock it away in a cupboard as maybe they did.” With the current crop of electric cars in circulation, attention has largely been on battery performance and design, with lubricants an afterthought. Some EVs use standard greases found in combustion engines, according to Lutz Lindemann, chief technology officer at Fuchs Petrolub SE. There are signs the pressure is already poised to affect companies. Demand for automotive lubricants, which reached about 20 million tons last year, is supposed to be flat for the “foreseeable future” due to the impact of EVs, the growing use of synthetic lubricants and economic pressures, according to research from energy consultant Kline & Company.
The Bolivian Coup Comes Down to One Precious Mineral - Bolivia’s President Evo Morales was overthrown in a military coup on November 10. He is now in Mexico. Before he left office, Morales had been involved in a long project to bring economic and social democracy to his long-exploited country. It is important to recall that Bolivia has suffered a series of coups, often conducted by the military and the oligarchy on behalf of transnational mining companies. Initially, these were tin firms, but tin is no longer the main target in Bolivia. The main target is its massive deposits of lithium, crucial for the electric car. Over the past 13 years, Morales has tried to build a different relationship between his country and its resources. He has not wanted the resources to benefit the transnational mining firms, but rather to benefit his own population. Part of that promise was met as Bolivia’s poverty rate has declined, and as Bolivia’s population was able to improve its social indicators. Nationalization of resources combined with the use of its income to fund social development has played a role. The attitude of the Morales government toward the transnational firms produced a harsh response from them, many of them taking Bolivia to court. Over the course of the past few years, Bolivia has struggled to raise investment to develop the lithium reserves in a way that brings the wealth back into the country for its people. Morales’ Vice President Álvaro García Linera had said that lithium is the “fuel that will feed the world.” Bolivia was unable to make deals with Western transnational firms; it decided to partner with Chinese firms. This made the Morales government vulnerable. It had walked into the new Cold War between the West and China. The coup against Morales cannot be understood without a glance at this clash. Bolivia claims to have 70 percent of the world’s lithium reserves, mostly in the Salar de Uyuni salt flats. The complexity of the mining and processing has meant that Bolivia has not been able to develop the lithium industry on its own. It requires capital, and it requires expertise. More technical solutions are needed for Bolivia, which means that more investment is needed. The nationalization policy of the Morales government and the geographical complexity of Salar de Uyuni chased away several transnational mining firms. Eramet (France), FMC (United States) and Posco (South Korea) could not make deals with Bolivia, so they now operate in Argentina. Morales made it clear that any development of the lithium had to be done with Bolivia’s Comibol—its national mining company—and Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB)—its national lithium company—as equal partners. Last year, Germany’s ACI Systems agreed to a deal with Bolivia. After protests from residents in the Salar de Uyuni region, Morales canceled that deal on November 4, 2019. The idea that there might be a new social compact for the lithium was unacceptable to the main transnational mining companies.
The Coup in Bolivia Has Everything to Do With the Screen You’re Using to Read This -When you look at your computer screen, or the screen on your smartphone or the screen of your television set, it is a liquid crystal display (LCD). An important component of the LCD screen is indium, a rare metallic element that is processed out of zinc concentrate. The two largest sources of indium can be found in eastern Canada (Mount Pleasant) and in Bolivia (Malku Khota). Canada’s deposits have the potential to produce 38.5 tons of indium per year, while Bolivia’s considerable mines would be able to produce 80 tons per year. Canada’s South American Silver Corporation—now TriMetals Mining—had signed a concession to explore and eventually mine Malku Khota. Work began in 2003, two years before Evo Morales and the Movement for Socialism (MAS) won their first presidential election in Bolivia. South American Silver conducted several studies of the region, all of which found substantial deposits that were poised to make this Canadian firm one of the major players in the mining industry. A study done by Allan Armitage and others for South American Silver, and delivered to the company in 2011, showed that the Malku Khota mine would produce substantial amounts of silver, indium, lead, zinc, copper, and gallium. “The indium and gallium,” the study noted, “are regarded as strategic metals that give the project future upside potential.” Gallium is used for thermometers and barometers, as well as in the testing side of the pharmaceutical industry. There is Fort Knox level treasure to be made from these minerals. Evo Morales rode to victory in 2006 with the promise of a new day for Bolivia. Key to his agenda was to take control of the country’s resources and use them to improve the quality of life of Bolivia’s deprived populations. One of the great tragedies of Bolivia has been that since the mid-16th century, the indigenous populations have had to work to remove precious wealth from underneath their lands and send that wealth to enrich the people of Europe and later North America. They did not benefit from those riches. Millions died in the mines of Potosí to bring the silver, and later tin, out of the ground. Resource nationalism is no longer on the agenda in Bolivia. The fate of Malku Khota is unknown. The fate of your screen is guaranteed—it will be replaced with indium from the Potosí deposits. And the benefits of that sale will not go to improving the well-being of Bolivia’s indigenous population; they will enrich the transnational firms and the old oligarchy of Bolivia.
Tribes Halt Major Copper Mine on Ancestral Lands in Arizona - Rising above the Arizona desert, the Santa Rita Mountains cradle 10,000 years of Indigenous history. The Tohono O'odham Nation, Pascua Yaqui Tribe, and Hopi Tribe, among numerous other tribes, have worshipped, foraged, hunted and laid their ancestors to rest in the mountains for generations. Mining corporation Hudbay Minerals proposed to dig a mile-wide open-pit copper mine in the Santa Ritas, burying dozens of sites sacred to the tribes under 1.8 billion tons of toxic waste. The mine's construction would raze ancestral Hohokam burial grounds, a historic Hohokam village and vital mountain springs.Represented by Earthjustice, the Tohono O'odham fought Hudbay's ill-conceived mine in court, joined by the Hopi and Pascua Yaqui tribes. This summer, a judge ruled in favor of the three tribes, halting the mine in its tracks and directing the Forest Service to protect these public lands from the devastating impacts of the mine. "Our relationship to the land is first and foremost," said Austin G. Nuñez, chairman of the Tohono O'odham Nation's San Xavier District in Tucson. "When our Hohokam ancestors' laid their loved ones in their final resting place, they never envisioned having them disturbed. We make every effort to not disturb them. We still feel their spirits today."
Non-profit study sees 'self-committed coal' distorting MISO market signals | S&P Global Platts - If all generation were dispatched economically in Midcontinent Independent System Operator, average wholesale power prices would rise 3% but production costs would drop 11%, lowering consumer costs, according to a preliminary analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists presented Tuesday. The group, along with the Sierra Club and consumer advocates, has raised concerns about coal plants owned by vertically integrated utilities that "self-commit," or run out of merit at times when their production costs exceed the wholesale market price. The practice is enabled, they argue, because those coal units recover fuel and operational costs from ratepayers. UCS presented its preliminary study results at a panel discussion Tuesday on how regulators might respond. Joe Daniel, senior energy analyst for UCS, said the practice affects the entire market because other lower-cost resources are not being called. While the approach may have made sense during a time when market prices did not drop below coal-fired plants' production costs, Daniel argued most coal plants now face weeks, if not months, in a row where prices do not justify operating. While some utilities have altered their practices, there is "a large swath of the fleet in the wholesale markets that is simply operating at an economic loss," he said.
Poll Shows Strong Support for Phasing Out Coal Plants as Barve Readies Bill – Maryland Matters The chairman of the principal environmental committee in the House of Delegates plans to introduce legislation next year to shutter the state’s six remaining coal-fired power plants.House Environment and Transportation Chairman Kumar P. Barve (D-Montgomery) said Tuesday that he is having legislation drafted to gradually close coal plants in favor of clean power electric generation. In a conference call with reporters, Barve said he hadn’t settled on a timeline for shutting down the coal plants.“As the sponsor, I’m going to want a faster timeline, but this is ultimately something we’re going to have to negotiate,” he said.Barve’s announcement coincided with the release of a poll from the Sierra Club showing strong support in Maryland for eliminating the state’s reliance on coal power.The poll of 947 registered Maryland voters, taken Oct. 18-27, showed widespread support for a transition to clean energy sources — among Democrats, Republicans and independents, and in all regions of the state.In the survey, 70 percent of all Maryland voters said they would support legislation that would transition the state off coal. That number included 80 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of independents, and 54 percent of Republicans.The proposal garnered 78 percent support in Prince George’s County, 77 percent in Montgomery County, 76 percent in Anne Arundel County and Baltimore City, 72 percent in Charles County, 67 percent in Baltimore County, and 59 percent in the rest of the state. The poll, by Hart Research Associates, a Democratic firm, and Ferguson Research, a Republican firm, had a 3.8-point margin of error.
Activists honor Kingston coal ash cleanup workers -- Activists are organizing a protest of a global government contractor accused in a federal lawsuit of failing to protect hundreds of workers who cleaned up the nation’s largest coal ash spill. The Rev. Jim Sessions announced the planned protest of the Knoxville office of Jacobs Engineering at a Jobs with Justice of East Tennessee annual meeting and awards ceremony Saturday. Jacobs, now based in Texas, was paid $64 million to safely clean up the Tennessee Valley Authority’s spill of 7.3 million tons of toxic coal ash waste and wastewater in December 2008.Since that spill, nearly 60 workers and their families have sued Jacobs in federal court, saying Jacobs didn't provide adequate protective gear, including facemasks, respirators and Tyvek body suits, and they fell ill because of exposure to coal ash during the cleanup.Jacobs has said it conducted the clean up properly and is not responsible for the workers' illnesses, which have not been conclusively tied to coal ash exposure.Sessions said the decision to hold a protest — set for noon Dec. 23 on the sidewalk at the intersection of Keller Bend and Northshore Drive — came after he and other members of Interfaith Worker Justice of East Tennessee earlier this year asked TVA to sever ties with Jacobs.TVA has continued to do business with Jacobs to the tune of as much as $200 million. The utility paid to run an advertisement honoring contractors, including Jacobs, on the 10th anniversary of the spill last year. A Knox News ongoing investigation has shown Kingston disaster workers were told they were safe toiling in coal ash — a toxic stew of at least 26 cancer-causing toxins, heavy metals and radioactive material — without respiratory protection or waterproof protective gear. Forty-four Kingston disaster workers have died from illnesses they assert in the lawsuit were caused by coal ash exposure, and more than 400 are sick, according to an ongoing tally from court records by Knox News.
Oak Ridge city manager sends letter critical of TVA Bull Run plans - — Oak Ridge City Manager Mark Watson has sent a letter to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation criticizing TVA’s possible plan for a coal fly ash landfill in the Claxton Community, just outside Oak Ridge. He sent his comments to TDEC as the department is considering whether to give a permit to TVA to redirect a stream called Worthington Branch in order to build that landfill and a haul road. TDEC has been asking for public comments regarding that permit and recently held a public hearing at Claxton Elementary School. Watson addressed the letter to Scott Hall, TDEC assistant manager of the natural resources unit. “The relocation of the waterway and landfill construction in the Lower Clinch River Watershed may negatively impact property values, affect the redevelopment of the site, and impact the extremely valued use of Melton Lake as a recreational venue and sports tourism destination,” Watson states in his letter. “The application states that the purpose of the landfill is to provide a reliable area for ash disposal for 15.5 years of operational capacity. The decision to construct a permanent onsite landfill, however, is strongly opposed by nearby residents as communicated at the public hearing. It is unclear why TDEC is requiring TVA to dig up millions of tons of coal ash for offsite disposal at plants in middle and west Tennessee, but considering a permit for onsite disposal at Bull Run so close to an irreplaceable water resource,” Watson stated.
Hoosier Environmental Council Offers Tanners Creek Cleanup Update - - At the Dearborn County Board of Commissioners meeting last night, Tim Maloney gave an update on the Tanners Creek Cleanup. Although this is a slow moving project and has no specific timeline, his message to the city was aimed at reminding them that all of the work being done is coming from a health and safety perspective.Maloney says that these coal ash ponds at Tanners Creek are major environmental problems that could ultimately cause issues to our air, drinking water, and the workers exposed in close range."Unfortunately, coal contains traces of heavy metals that are more concentrated in the ash after the carbon is burned off. When coal ash is in contact with water, or water from rain or snow runs through it, the water can become contaminated with heavy metals including arsenic, boron, lithium, molybdenum, and selenium." HEC says. The goal is to move this pollution of ash fallout to fully engineered landfill that is designed more for these issues.
Power plant closures sink waste recycling rate -- Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - Coal ash recycling rates dropped for the first time in four years last year as a record number of coal-fired power plant closures torqued the market for reusing their waste.
Black Lung Trust Fund Likely Burdened by Murray Bankruptcy - The recent bankruptcy of Murray Energy is likely to significantly increase the debt of a struggling federal trust fund that supports disabled miners’ health care expenses. According to court filings, Murray Energy could be responsible for as much as $155 million under the Black Lung Act and general workers’ compensation, but testimony from the Government Accountability Office shows that the company only offered $1.1 million in collateral to the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund. That means the struggling fund will likely have to take on at least some of that liability. The federal fund was established in 1978 to provide monthly stipends and health care coverage for miners disabled by black lung, a preventable and progressive workplace disease. The fund, which is supported by a per-ton tax on coal companies, currently covers expenses for some 25,000 miners and their dependents, and is expected to be $15 billion in debt by 2050. Last year, Congress failed to extend a higher per-ton tax rate, increasing the strain on the fund. A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said in an email to the ReSource, “While the temporary, higher tax expired last year, current benefits for our impacted miners and their families have been maintained. Senator McConnell will continue to ensure these important benefits are maintained. Additionally he will continue working on the many ways to help coal miners and the clinics that serve them across Kentucky.” If the fund becomes insolvent, it may be bailed out by the Treasury’s general fund, effectively transferring the burden of caring for disabled miners from the industry that caused the illnesses to American taxpayers.
One of the largest coal-fired power plants in the Western US has just closed for good - After nearly 50 years in operation, one of the largest coal-fired power plants in the Western United States shut its doors for good on Monday. The Navajo Generating Station, a 2,250-megawatt plant located in Arizona and operated by Salt River Project, ceased operations just after 12 p.m. local time on Monday.The “difficult but necessary” decision to close the plant was made in early 2017, after the owners determined that it was uneconomical to continue operating.A press release cited the “changing economics of the energy industry” against a backdrop that has seen “natural gas prices sink to record lows along with the growth of economical renewable resources.” The decommissioning of the plant has begun. It’s expected to take three years to complete and cost the owners $150 million.The plant closure is the latest casualty in the coal industry as consumers shift to cheaper and cleaner sources of power. At least eight coal companies have filed for bankruptcy this year, most recently Murray Energy, which was once the nation’s largest privately held coal company. Since 2010, more than 540 coal-fired plants have closed. Last year, demand for coal fell to its lowest level in 40 years, according to the US Energy Information Administration, with coal production dropping to its second lowest level since 1978. In April, for the first time ever, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind farms provided more of the US’ electricity than coal, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This comes despite promises by President Donald Trump to revive the industry. At a campaign rally in West Virginia last year, he declared that “the coal industry is back.”
The U.S. Coal Producers Plowing Ahead With New Mines in a Rout -- As coal prices tumble and bankruptcies rise, a few U.S. miners are still pushing ahead with plans to expand. Arch Coal Inc. and Consol Energy Inc. remain on track to open new mines to dig steelmaking, or metallurgical, coal from the West Virginia hills. That’s even as the market is already glutted, with prices down about 30% in 12 months. They’re betting they can produce coal cheaply enough to profit even as their rivals retrench. Bloomberg Intelligence expects the global supply of the metallurgical variety to exceed demand this year by 2.7%, as economic headwinds blunt steel demand. At least four U.S. companies have shut mines since August. Five have filed for bankruptcy this year. “There is a lot of pain in the marketplace,” Consol Chief Executive Officer Jimmy Brock said during a conference call last week. “We expect to hold our ground.” Arch, the second largest U.S. miner, has already started digging small amounts of coal from its Leer South project, which won’t reach full production of 3 million tons annually until the third quarter of 2021. The company announced the project in February, when metallurgical coal prices were around $190 per ton. Now they’re at about $137. The site is near an existing Arch mine and will plumb the same reserves, reducing some of the risk for the company. In July, Arch sped up the project’s schedule by a quarter. Last month, the company said it would “drive forward with the accelerated build-out.” Arch did not respond to a request for comment. Consol, the eighth-largest U.S. miner, expects to begin extracting some coal next quarter from its Itmann mine in West Virginia before ramping up to full capacity in 2021. Excavation is already underway, and the company is working to hire miners. Consol announced the project in May, just as metallurgical coal prices peaked at about $200 million a ton. At the time, Brock said the returns on the project would “significantly” exceed capital costs even if met coal is $150 per ton. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Appalachia’s Strip-Mined Mountains Face a Growing Climate Risk: Flooding -With the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers forecasting more rain and significantly increased stream flows due to climate change in a region that includes the coalfields of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, this kind of life-and-death drama on landscapes heavily strip-mined for coal could happen more frequently in the coming years. Heavier rainfall could also mean more polluted water washing from coal mines, environmental experts say, damaging streams and aquatic life already marred by mining. A new analysis of satellite imagery conducted for InsideClimate News by two Duke University scientists shows how the risks related to strip mining and climate change are spread broadly across the region. It found that a total of 1,400 square miles of Appalachia within the Ohio River basin has been scarred by strip mining, with the tops and sides of mountains blasted away and steep mountains valleys filled with so-called "waste rock." The area with the largest extent of strip-mining damage in the entire Ohio River basin—almost 500 square miles in the Big Sandy watershed, including Pigeon Creek—is also the most threatened by extreme weather related to climate change, according to the new analysis.
Exclusive: Over half of India's coal-fired power plants set to miss emission norm deadline - (Reuters) - More than half of India’s coal-fired power plants ordered to retrofit equipment to curb air pollution are set to miss the deadline, private industry estimates and a Reuters analysis show, as millions in the country wake up to toxic air each day. Thermal power companies, which produce three-quarters of the country’s electricity, account for some 80% of India’s industrial emissions of sulfur- and nitrous-oxides in India, which cause lung diseases, acid rain and smog. India, currently struggling with some of the worst air pollution levels on earth, has previously already extended its December 2017 deadline for its utilities to meet emissions standards, after extensive lobbying by the Association of Power Producers (APP). In a letter to the government dated May 24 and reviewed by Reuters, APP’s Director General Ashok Khurana said the installation of Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) units - which cuts emissions of sulfur dioxides - take about 27-30 months and warned that banks were withholding funding for these units due to stress levels in the power sector, among other factors. India has a phased plan for plants to comply with the emission norms, with some plants having until end-December 2019, while others have up to the end of 2022 to comply. A total of 440 coal-fired units that produce 166.5 gigawatts (GW) have to comply with the regulations by December 2022. A Reuters analysis of Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data indicates 267 units, which produce 103.4 GW of power, have to be compliant between December 2019 and February 2022, which is 27 months from now.
A Huge Red Flag? India Shutters Power Plants Citing Lack Of Demand --Half of India’s power generation capacity using coal and nuclear power is being shut down because of lackluster demand, the Indian Express reports, adding that some of the shutdowns have been temporary, lasting just a few days, but other power plants have been closed for months. Some 65.13 GW in generation capacity has been shut down at one point or another, with the earlier shutdown made in July. There seems to be simply not enough demand for electricity, which is worrying as a lot of this demand comes from the industrial and commercial sectors.This is marked departure from 2012, when the worst blackout in years hit 20 of India’s 28 states, plunging 700 million people into darkness. The blackout was caused by a surge in demand that the local utilities found themselves unable to meet. Now, demand is on the decline for India’s coal-powered generation plants as renewables encroach on their territory: coal-fired plants currently account for 63 percent of the country’s energy mix, down from 73 percent three years ago. The country has one of the most ambitious renewables programs in the world, which should result in India deriving 55 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.To date, the country has 83 GW in renewable generation capacity, with another 31 GW under construction, and a further 35 GW awaiting bidders. All this taken together and with hydropower capacity added, India could cross the 200-GW threshold by 2022, according to the government. Yet there are also seasonal factors at play. A longer monsoon season and an early arrival of winter have served to dampen electricity demand faster than usual. The longer monsoon period affected activity in India’s industrial centers, with some of them registering declines in demand for electricity rather than the usual increase for that time of the year.
China coal-fired power capacity still rising, bucking global trend: study - (Reuters) - China raised its coal-fired power capacity by 42.9 gigawatts (GW), or about 4.5%, in the 18 months to June, connecting new projects to the grid at a time when capacity in the rest of the world shrank, according to a study published on Wednesday. China also has another 121.3 GW of coal-fired power plants under construction, U.S.-based research network Global Energy Monitor said in its report, nearly enough to power the whole of France. The increase followed a 2014-2016 “permitting surge” by local governments aiming to boost growth while formerly suspended projects have also been restarted, Global Energy Monitor said. In the rest of the world, coal-fired power capacity fell 8.1 GW over the same period. To cut pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, China has promised an “energy revolution” aimed at dramatically reducing its reliance on coal. It cut coal’s share of the country’s total energy from 68% in 2012 to 59% last year, and researchers predict it will fall to 55.3% by 2020. Absolute coal consumption, however, has continued to increase in line with a rise in overall Chinese energy demand.
A leak shut down a nuclear plant for weeks. Here’s the latest on repairs at the SC plant. The V.C. Summer atomic power plant, which has been shut down since early November because of a pipe leak, is expected to begin producing energy in a few days. Dominion Energy says it has fixed the small leak in a pipe valve that allowed radioactive water to drip out. The company declined to say when the plant would be fully operational, but spokesman Ken Holt said that can take several days. The plant was at 17 percent power Wednesday, he said. Holt, who said Dominion is still investigating the cause, said water that leaked was part of the reactor cooling system. While the water came in contact with nuclear fuel in the reactor, the water never escaped the plant’s containment building and into the environment, Holt said. Subscribe and Save Act now to get a full year of unlimited digital access – just $49.99! VIEW OFFER He characterized the valve leak as ‘”uncommon’’ but not unexpected. The nuclear leak occurred in piping that links the nuclear reactor with the power plant’s steam generators. Hundreds of pipes are in that part of the nuclear plant.
LaRose asks Ohio Supreme Court to not answer questions on referendum process — Ohio's nuclear bailout is now the law of the land, and no petition was filed to put it before voters. So Secretary of State Frank LaRose has asked the Ohio Supreme Court not to answer five questions posed to it by a federal judge about the constitutionality of Ohio's referendum process. Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts “did not file a referendum petition with the Secretary of State’s Office and admitted in [federal] district court that it did not have sufficient signatures to do so,” Mr. LaRose’s attorney argued in a brief filed last week with the state’s high court. “OACB failed to ask the Supreme Court — or any other Ohio court — to stay House Bill 6 for additional time to circulate petitions,” his brief reads, and it’s now too late to shift the matter to state court. House Bill 6 took effect Oct. 22, the 91st day after Gov. Mike DeWine signed it into law. The measure will surcharge electricity consumers across Ohio to funnel $150 million a year to FirstEnergy Solutions’ two struggling nuclear power plants on Lake Erie — Davis-Besse near Oak Harbor and Perry east of Cleveland — beginning in 2021. The two plants directly employ about 1,400 people but have been unable to compete economically with cheaper natural gas. The Supreme Court now has before it five specific questions posed by U.S. District Court Judge Edmund Sargus, Jr. All generally swirl around whether the Ohio Constitution guarantees petitioners a full 90 days to gather signatures to put a law on hold until voters may weigh in. Before punting to the state court, Judge Sargus refused to grant petitioners more time to gather signatures. He said their beef appeared to be with the state constitution and was not a matter of protected political speech under the U.S. Constitution.Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts argues that state laws affecting the referendum process denied it the time needed to gather nearly 266,000 signatures to put the law on the ballot.
State lawmakers urged to allow wind farm referendum | Toledo Blade — In person and in writing, scores of residents from a swath of northwest Ohio — from Champaign to Huron counties — on Tuesday urged state lawmakers to give them the power of the ballot to keep out what they say are unwanted wind farms. Walt Poffenbaugh, of Norwich Township, Huron County, sees three proposed turbine projects across Seneca, Sandusky, Erie, and Huron counties as essentially one industrial-sized project with a cumulative effect on the region. “Republic Wind, Seneca Wind, and Emerson Creek Wind combined encompass 130,378 acres in portions of four adjacent counties in northwest Ohio,” he told the Ohio House Energy and Natural Resources Committee. “130,378 acres translates to 203 square miles,” he said. “The city of Columbus, which I imagine all of you are familiar with, covers 212 square miles.” The Seneca Wind project would involve 77 turbines; Republic Wind, 50 turbines; and Emerson Creek, 62 turbines. The Ohio Power Siting Board “evaluates each project on an individual basis and not in the context of other wind developments,” Mr. Poffenbaugh said. “By giving the right of referendum to impacted voters, the people can decide when enough is enough.” The committee is considering House Bill 401, sponsored by Rep. Bill Reineke (R., Tiffin), that would allow township residents to circulate petitions to subject an OPSB decision pertaining to the siting of wind farms to voter referendum. Currently, board decisions override local zoning control. The measure is inspired by new fights over proposals across the northern part of the state as well as the residual ill will from fights of the past, like that of the large, currently operational Blue Creek Wind Farm in Paulding and Van Wert counties.
Ohio bill would let townships block wind projects after they are approved - Ohio lawmakers are looking to erect more hurdles to wind energy in the state. House Bill 401 would let opponents compel individual township referendums on new or modified wind farm projects after they get approval from the Ohio Power Siting Board. “Nobody’s going to build anything under threat of a township referendum,” said Andrew Gohn, eastern regional director for the American Wind Energy Association. “That approach would be fatal to the industry because of the regulatory uncertainty that it would impose in the state.”The bill is an about-face by primary sponsor Bill Reineke, R-Tiffin. “Property rights should never be subject to a vote,” he said last year, talking about the tensions between concerned neighbors and landholders wishing to lease land for turbines.In his sponsor testimony on Nov. 13, however, Reineke said, “If there is a majority, either silent or vocal, for or against these projects, then there should be a local vote!” He testified that he had gotten “overwhelming, let me stress overwhelming, constituent outreach.” He did not return a call or email Thursday afternoon.The bill would give wind farm opponents 90 days after a siting board approval to collect signatures calling for a referendum from 8% of a township’s voters. That, in turn, would trigger a special township election to accept or reject the approval at either the next primary or general election.“These behemoths are going up in our backyards, and, currently, there’s very little that residents can do to ensure they get a say,” Reineke said. He did not discuss the fact that Ohio law lets affected parties intervene in regulatory proceedings and also calls for notices and meetings for interested residents.
New US power plant to use record-setting natural gas turbines - Guernsey County sits in the heart of the Marcellus and Utica shale regions – vast subterranean deposits of natural gas that have been unlocked through fracking. The privately held producer Caithness Energy recently announced it would open a large, 1,875MW power plant in Guernsey. Three record-setting gas turbines from GE will serve as the beating heart of the facility. According to Caithness, the new combined-cycle electricity-generating facility will power at least 1.5 million homes in the “PJM region.” This regional transmission zone, once known as the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection, now includes all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, and stretches from Maryland to Michigan. All three turbines in the plant will be GE Power’s 7HA.02 gas turbines, which are part of a platform that has been recognised for powering the world’s most efficient power plants in both the 50 and 60Hz energy segments. They boast a simpler configuration compared with some other gas turbines, meaning they can be installed considerably faster. And they are among the fastest turbines in the energy industry to get to work, reaching full load just 10 minutes after being turned on, according to GE. Gas-powered plants fill a crucial role in bridging current energy needs with the expansion of renewable energy as a necessary step to counter climate change and air pollution. Because they can start up quickly, they’re able to level out natural fluctuations in solar and wind generation. Such is this industry’s promise that more than 1,500GW of gas-fired generation capacity is expected to be added worldwide by 2040, according to a 2018 GE analysis of the gas-fired generation market. Having amassed more than 388,000 operating hours, GE’s fleet of HA gas turbines have a proven track record in the field – Caithness itself already uses two at a power plant in Pennsylvania.
State Supreme Court Could Hear Two Cases On Nuclear Bailout Bill - The fate of Ohio's nuclear plant bailout law could be up to the state's Supreme Court, with parties arguing over two potential cases. One group is asking for more time to hold a referendum, and another case argues the bill cannot be subject to a referendum. Ohio Public Radio's Andy Chow reports. The energy law bails out nuclear and subsidizes coal plants through rate increases. Attorneys for FirstEnergy Solutions argue that those rate increases should be considered tax increases, which cannot be subject to a referendum. The window has closed for groups to file in that case. Three of the seven justices have already recused themselves. Most of the justices on the court have received campaign contributions from FirstEnergy Solutions which stands to gain about $1 billion in subsidies through the new law. Meanwhile, Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts want more time to collect signatures for that referendum, after a federal judge referred their case back to the state Supreme Court. No word on whether the court will hear that case.
State Regulators Reject AEP Ohio's Plans to Build 400MW of Solar Funded by Ratepayers -Ohio regulators on Thursday threw up a hurdle for a solar project that's slated to be the state’s largest, rejecting plans from American Electric Power’s Ohio subsidiary to charge ratepayers for costs to build the 300-megawatt project.The decision, which also applied to another planned 100-megawatt AEP Ohio project, shouldn’t come as a complete surprise: In January commission staff issued a recommendation against the projects, arguing the power isn’t needed in the state.Though AEP Ohio called the decision “disappointing” in an email to Greentech Media, the utility said the projects could go on even after the rejection. AEP plans to look for offtakers interested in bilateral contracts, such as corporations or other large purchasers. Hecate Energy is developing the 300-megawatt project, while Willowbrook Solar will develop the smaller of the two. It’s not the first time AEP has faced challenge from regulators on its renewable plans. In July of 2018, the utility canceled its 2-gigawatt Wind Catcher project after the Texas Public Utility Commission said the project didn’t provide enough benefit. Wind Catcher was slated to be the largest onshore wind project in the U.S. That setback didn’t put AEP off renewables, which have become a key segment of its business. This year the utility purchased Sempra Renewables for more than $1 billion and upped its renewables portfolio to more than 1.3 gigawatts. In Ohio, AEP plans to add 500 megawatts of wind plus 400 megawatts of solar. But that capacity is at the mercy of Ohio regulators’ determination of need — need the commission said AEP Ohio didn’t demonstrate in the case of the 400 megawatts currently proposed.
Investigation underway into Pepper Pike gas leak that caused fire - — Officials in Pepper Pike have provided an update following Friday's large fire that broke out after a natural gas main leak at Brainard Circle. A gas line exploded just before 1 a.m. and burst into flames. Residents were immediately evacuated and taken to the Beachwood Community Center for the night (they are allowed to return home), and Dominion Gas shut off the supply feeding the blaze. Pepper Pike Mayor Richard Bain and Police Chief Joe Mariola report that Dominion, Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and the State Fire Marshall of Ohio are conducting the investigation into how and why the natural gas main leak occurred. They add that the investigation could take several weeks.Once the investigation is complete, officials say the reconstruction of the natural gas line and roadway will commence, along with the repair of power lines, phone lines and cable lines. First Energy has restored power to all homes in the city. From a traffic perspective, there is no access to the circle from Brainard Road or Gates Mills Blvd. There is no westbound access to Brainard Circle from Shaker Blvd. Also, you can access Pepper Pike City Hall from Shaker Blvd. only.
State board approves Duke gas pipeline to run through Hamilton County — After a years-long debate, Duke Energy's controversial plan to build a new natural gas pipeline in Hamilton County wasapproved on Thursday by the Ohio Power Siting Board . The approximately 13-mile-long C314V Central Corridor Pipeline Extension Project, which passes through several communities in Hamilton County, will run from Golf Manor north of I-275. Residents at a town hall meeting on Thursday said they still have concerns. "I never really liked the idea of it, the idea of a pipeline just coming into basically my backyard," Evendale resident Cory Petersman said. The pipeline will soon become a permanent fixture in several Hamilton County neighborhoods, including Amberley Village, Blue Ash, Cincinnati, Evendale, Golf Manor, Reading and Sharonville. Duke Energy spokesperson Sally Thelen said the company will work with residents along the route and the pipeline will be constructed in right-of way areas, not backyards. "We're not going to do anything unless we certainly on the front end have everything communicated with the communities that would be impacted," Thelen said. She said Duke currently operates more than 14,000 miles of pipeline. Protests of the project have continued since its introduction in 2016. Opponents' initial concerns had to do with the possible danger associated with having a pipeline in a residential area .
Environmentalists question use of radioactive brine waste to treat roads - - Processed brine waste from oil and natural gas drilling could raise levels of radium — a radioactive metallic element found in the brine — in soil and groundwater when spread on winter roads, environmentalists warn. As temperatures continue to dip, it will be only a matter of time before road crews across the state head out in the wee hours to pre-treat roads for snow and ice.Many will use processed brine waste from oil and natural gas drilling. That concerns environmentalists, who say the practice could raise levels of radium — a radioactive metallic element found in the brine — in soil and groundwater from runoff that could take up to 1,600 years to decay.“This is just not something that should be spread around our communities haphazardly. It needs to be stopped, period. If you can’t find something better to do with this waste, then stop producing it,” said Teresa Mills, a member of the Buckeye Environmental Network, a nonprofit environmental-justice group. Radium-226 and radium-228, both found in brine waste, are known carcinogens and can lead to bone, liver, and breast cancer in humans if levels are high enough, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ohio law allows only brine produced from vertical, or conventional, wells to be spread as a de-icer.“The (Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management) has collected brine samples from both brine hauler trucks and wells. These samples are helping the division to establish baseline radiological data on naturally occurring radioactive material in produced brine from different geological formations,” said ODNR spokesman Adam Schroeder.Data from state testing shows that in at least one case there were 9,602 picocuries per liter for combined amounts of radium-226 and radium-228. The lowest level was 66. Environmentalists note that Ohio law allows no more than 0.005 picocuries of radium per liter of oil and gas fracking waste to be placed in landfills in the state. Yet state law allows for processed brine waste to be spread on Ohio’s roadways without a cap on its radiation levels because the state claims it is a naturally occurring byproduct.
Gulfport Energy Cuts Jobs, Suspends Share Buybacks - U.S. shale and gas producer Gulfport Energy Corporation has cut staff and suspended its share repurchase program in efforts to cut costs, the company announced Monday.The Oklahoma City-based independent, which has operations in the Utica shale in Ohio and SCOOP play in Oklahoma, also said that two of its board members – Craig Groeschel and Scott Streller – will step down from the board by year-end.“Gulfport’s Board and management team are committed to taking timely and decisive action to build long-term sustainable value for all shareholders,” CEO David Wood, said in a company statement. “To that end, following discussions with our large shareholders and other stakeholders, we decided that accretive repurchases of our unsecured notes at discount represent an attractive allocation of our capital in the current market environment. We have also been taking a hard look at how to be more efficient across all areas of our business and as part of this effort recently reduced our staffing levels.”Gulfport cited current market conditions and a weak near-term gas price outlook as reasons for suspension of the company’s share repurchase program. Additionally, Gulfport recently completed a workforce reduction, accounting for about 13 percent of its headcount. Gulfport had nearly $2.1 billion in long-term debt, according to its third quarter 2019 earnings statement.
Ohio's Growing Shale Energy Industry Has Attracted Nearly $78 Billion in Investment Since 2011 - Total investment in Ohio's resource rich shale energy sector has reached $78 billion since tracking began in 2011, according to a Cleveland State University (CSU) study. Prepared for JobsOhio, the report represents the most recent data available and covers shale investment through the second half of 2018. Earlier in the year, IHS Markit released estimates that by 2040, the Utica and Marcellus shale region, of which Ohio is a significant part, will supply nearly half of all U.S. natural gas production. The study from CSU's Energy Policy Center at the Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs, showed drilling investments were slightly down in the second half of 2018 compared to the first half, but total upstream investments were up. Total shale-related investment in Ohio for the second half of 2018, including upstream, midstream and downstream, was around $3.82 billion. Total investment from 2011-2018 totaled about $77.7 billion. Upstream activities, such as drilling or royalties, accounted for more than $3.5 billion of this total. According to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas, 117 new wells were drilled during the third and fourth quarters of 2018, 40 fewer than in the first half of the year. Yet longer laterals are resulting in higher production and increased investment per well. Data indicates that the volume of gas-equivalent shale production in the second half of 2018 was 17.7% higher than in the first half, with total upstream spending in the second half of 2018 exceeding that for the first half by around $173.4 million. In Ohio, with Belmont, Monroe and Carroll counties representing the most active areas, 117 wells were listed as "drilled, drilling or producing."
Other Ohio counties seeking benefit from boom — As drillers tap the natural gas reserves beneath Ohio’s easternmost counties, community leaders to the west hope to pump some of those profits into their own economies by developing ancillary industries. Ohio Rep. Adam Holmes, R-Nashport, met recently with representatives of JobsOhio and the Appalachian Partnership for Economic Growth to discuss ways that counties adjacent to the Marcellus and Utica shale region can capitalize on the activity that is taking place there. At the Zanesville meeting, Holmes said counties such as Muskingum — which lies just west of Guernsey County and within 50 miles of many parts of Noble, Monroe, Harrison and Belmont counties where much of the drilling is taking place — are ideal locations for support services related to the industry. Holmes suggested that because of its central location less than an hour east of the state capital and along Interstate 70, Muskingum County is a suitable spot for trucking companies to set up maintenance and repair facilities. He said the location is also ideal for pipe yards and manufacturing and storage for pipelining companies. He pointed out that the flatter terrain of Muskingum County, as opposed to the rolling hills of the more eastern counties, means it is easier to construct large buildings and facilities there. He referred to his legislative District 97, which includes Guernsey and Muskingum counties, as a“downstream area” in connection with the industry. Downstream operations include those that use the natural gas and related products such as ethane and propane in manufacturing, producing things such as plastics, chemicals, electricity, carpets and textiles, medical devices and more.
Pennsylvania's natural gas production growth continues to lead U.S. - Philadelphia Business Journal - Pennsylvania's natural gas production growth led the United States in 2018 — and helped set a national record. The Energy Information Administration said dry natural gas production rose 12 percent to 83.8 trillion cubic feet in the United States in 2018, the largest percentage increase since 1951 and the highest increase in volume as far as records go back. While Texas remained the top gas producing state with 6.8 trillion cubic feet, Pennsylvania was not far behind with 6.1 trillion cubic feet, according to EIA data. That's up from 5.4 trillion cubic feet in Pennsylvania in 2017. This occurred during a year of downturn in the natural gas industry and a move toward production cuts and drops in rig counts that continues this year and likely in 2020. There were 68,421 producing gas wells in Pennsylvania in 2018, down from 68,807 in 2017.
Pennsylvania families demand investigation into rare cancers (AP) — The families of young people diagnosed with a rare childhood cancer confronted Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf on Monday over what they called his administration’s insufficient response to a health crisis they blame on pollution from the shale gas industry. Dozens of children and young adults have been diagnosed with Ewing sarcoma and other forms of cancer in a four-county region of southwestern Pennsylvania where energy companies have drilled more than 3,500 wells since 2008. An investigation by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this year identified six Ewing cases in a single school district. The cause of Ewing sarcoma is unknown, and there’s been no evidence linking the Pennsylvania cases to drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the method that energy companies use to extract natural gas from shale rock. The American Cancer Society says there are “no known lifestyle-related or environmental causes” of Ewing, a rare bone cancer that’s diagnosed in about 200 children and teens across the U.S. each year. But the families, joined by anti-drilling activists, demanded that Wolf launch an environmental investigation into the cancers that have devastated their loved ones. “I want answers, and I want answers now. Give us the truth,” said Carla Marratto Cumming, whose 19-year-old brother, Luke Blanock, died of Ewing sarcoma in 2016. “What’s going on is killing our families, and it’s not OK.” The region’s lawmakers recently secured a $100,000 state grant for the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center to perform genetic testing of Ewing patients, but the families said it’s not enough. They gave Wolf an earful when he met with them in the hallway outside his office at the Capitol on Monday. Luke Blanock’s mother, Janice, invited Wolf to go on a tour of fracking sites “to see exactly how fracking is wreaking havoc on our kids, families, our homes, everything.” Breaking down, she continued: “You have to see it in person. You can’t even understand what we’ve gone through.”
When it comes to fossil fuels, Pa. is taking big steps — in the wrong direction | Philadelphia Inquirer Editorial - The news that the FBI has been investigating how Gov. Tom Wolf’s administration issued a construction permit for a $5.1 billion project to construct a cross-state pipeline carrying highly volatile gas liquids is a grim reminder that when it comes to energy policy, Pennsylvania is moving in the wrong direction. Last week, the Associated Press reported that for at least six months, the FBI has been investigating whether Wolf administration officials have pressured the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to approve the Sunoco Pipeline LP’s Mariner East 2 project — which traverses 17 counties — despite potential shortcomings in the permitting process. The Wolf administration has made natural gas a staple of its economic development plans and the project has garnered the support of labor unions and the energy industry. The federal investigation is the latest in the mounting challenges that include a joint investigation by the Pennsylvania Office of Attorney General and Delaware County District Attorney’s Office, as well as an investigation by the Chester County District Attorney’s Office. The Clean Air Council has challenged in court several water and air quality permits that the state issued to Sunoco. Environmental activists and residents near pipeline construction sites have long been protesting the project — an opposition that intensified following gas leaks,spills, and odors.Last week, the governor said he had nothing to hide and welcomed investigations. Frankly, though, these questions are not the most troubling aspect of the project. As we face a moment of reckoning to address climate change, instead of moving toward renewable energy, Pennsylvania is battling to grow the commonwealth’s dependence on fossil fuel. Mariner East is not the only example.A June fire at Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery put the entire region at risk of exposure to deadly gasses. As a part of its court bankruptcy proceeding, it is accepting bids for the property; two of the 15 potential bidders propose using the site to produce fuel. Others would repurpose the site as a fuel terminal. In the western part of the state, the Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex is soon to be completed in part due to billions in tax credits. Instead of rolling back the footprint of the gas industry in an area of the state that is already seeing a cluster of rare childhood cancer — similar to Louisiana’s “cancer alley” next to refineries and petrochemical plants — the state is expanding it.
Pa. Senator Pat Toomey Introduces Bill To Prevent Presidents From Banning Fracking – CBS Pittsburgh (KDKA) — Referencing a social media post from a fellow senator, Republican Pat Toomey delivered a strong message to everyone in government. On Friday, Toomey introduced a bill to ban presidents from banning fracking. He introduced his resolution while standing next to a picture of a tweet from U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren that says she would ban fracking if elected president. “Number one, it reaffirms that states are the number one regulators of fracking on state and private lands,” Toomey said. “And it states very clearly that the President of the United States does not have the authority to ban fracking.” But the Pennsylvania director of Clean Water Action called Toomey’s action a political stunt and waste of time. “He knows that this is not going to go anywhere,” Myron Aronwitt told KDKA political editor Jon Delano on Friday. Aronwitt says the president does not currently have the authority to ban fracking, except maybe on federal lands. “Our understanding has always been that to completely ban fracking, you would need Congress to take action and the President would likely have to support that,” Aronwitt said. Toomey agrees, but says Democratic contenders like Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris think they can ban fracking by declaring a national emergency.“I don’t think they have the legal authority but apparently they do, and that’s why I think it’s important for Congress to go on record and make it clear — you do not have this authority,” said Toomey.
County leaders: Petrochemical industry welcome in western Pennsylvania - A group of about 20 county officials from Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer Washington and Westmoreland counties issued a joint statement Wednesday showing support natural gas and petrochemical development in western Pennsylvania. Western Pennsylvania is open for business — even if the city of Pittsburgh isn’t. A group of about 20 county officials from Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer Washington and Westmoreland counties issued a joint statement Wednesday showing support natural gas and petrochemical development in western Pennsylvania. “Pittsburgh is just one city, among nearly 500 other municipalities that make up the western region of Pennsylvania we represent,” officials said in the statement. “Our communities are home to workers, many of which have struggled to provide for their families over the past several decades — until the natural gas industry came to this region.” Among those signing the document are Beaver County Commissioners Daniel Camp, Tony Amadio and Sandie Egley and Allegheny County Chief Executive Rich Fitzgerald. The statement, spearheaded by the Beaver County Board of Commissioners, comes on the heels of last month’s comments by Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto at the Climate Action Summit in downtown Pittsburgh. “Let me be the first politician to say publicly, I oppose any additional petrochemical companies coming to western Pennsylvania,” he told a crowd of climate activists and environmentalists at the summit. “We do not have to become the petrochemical/plastics center of the United States.” But petrochemical development has brought jobs to Beaver County and the region, the county officials wrote. “The Shell Petrochemical facility in Beaver County represents the largest investment made in this region since World War II, when western Pennsylvania led the country’s steel production,” the statement said. “This investment has brought families back to their hometowns, and has breathed life back into our communities.
Johns Hopkins researcher: Pa. should ban fracking- A scientist at Johns Hopkins University told a public health conference in Pittsburgh that Pennsylvania should ban fracking because of its impact on public health and climate change. Brian Schwartz has found through years of National Institutes of Health-funded studies that being close to fracking increases the likelihood of asthma,premature birth, headaches, and maternal stress levels. He said the evidence that fracking is bad for your health is clear enough.“What would I say now? I would say because of the regional and local health concerns and concerns about climate change, we should stop fracking–everywhere,” he said. The comment drew a round of applause at the normally staid annual conference, presented by the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania and held at the University of Pittsburgh. The conference this year featured several public health scientists presenting research on fracking’s effects on maternal health, mental health, and heart problems, and the latest research on air and water impacts from fracking. Many local environmental activists were in attendance.
Anti-fracking protesters arrested in Dover - – At least 29 protesters were arrested by New York State Troopers on Saturday after blocking the entrance to the Cricket Valley Energy Center with a farm tractor while others went into the facility and climbed the 275-foot smokestack to protest the construction of the power plant that will use fracked gas to produce electric. The protesters, according to a statement released, came from all over the Northeast and included local farmers and were organized by “Resist CVE”. The smokestack climbers started their ascent around 5:00 am and they stayed up on the perch until approximately 5:00 pm. The tractor blockade began around 6:00 am and ended in the afternoon. As a result of the protest, construction workers building the plant were forced to leave after being on-site just a short time.According to Lee Ziesche, Organizer for Resist CVE, the construction of the 1,100 megawatt fracked gas power plant, one of the largest in the Northeast, is nearing completion and once up and running would cover the local community in 279 tons of nitrogen oxides, 570 tons of carbon monoxide, and more than 60 tons of sulfuric acid pollution. Local residents are particularly concerned that its location in the Harlem Valley, a narrow north-south corridor, will engulf the region with pollution. It will also emit 6 million tons of greenhouse gasses. Protesters climbed the smokestack around 5:00 am on Saturday. “Our valley has a lot of important resources, everything from our children, an elementary, middle and high school, to some of the largest freshwater deposits in New York State and our local farms, all which need clean air to survive and thrive,” said farmer Ben Schwartz, of White Pine Farm in Eastern Dutchess County. The plant is located close to the Connecticut border and residents there are also very concerned about the fracked gas pollution. The Connecticut residents had no say in the approval of the plant and now are forced to monitor their own air quality.
State fires National Grid auditor over alleged report irregularities -A consulting company hired by the state in 2018 to perform a comprehensive audit of National Grid’s gas and electric operations was fired in October for a series of irregularities in the draft report, including alleged plagiarism and a “lack of independent analysis,” according to a state filings. The contractor, Raymond G. Saleeby Consulting Group of South Orange, New Jersey, was notified of its firing in an Oct. 1 teleconference, just weeks before Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo publicly criticized National Grid and the Public Service Commission over a gas shortage facing the downstate region that led the British company to declare a moratorium on new gas hookups. But the state discounted any connection between the matters, even though a part of the report's scope was to examine gas supply. "Saleeby Consulting’s audit failures are not connected to problems related to National Grid’s failure to adequately address Long Island’s gas supply demands," Department of Public Service spokesman James Denn wrote in an email. But the audit report was supposed to examine local supply issues. A state document outlining the scope of work specifically requires auditors to "assess the readiness, capability and possible impediments to meeting increasing natural gas load, and possible alternatives to new long-term projects like pipeline capacity, including the ability of conservation, temporary compressed natural gas facilities, demand response or other programs to meet peak load requirements in the future." It's unclear how delays in finalizing the report, which will now be completed by department staff, could affect the state's plan to address the problems. Cuomo has given National Grid two weeks to respond to the supply crisis or risk losing its franchise to operate in New York.
Pressure mounts on National Grid for alternatives to moratorium — As winter sets in, state officials are turning up the heat on National Grid to find solutions to its moratorium on new natural gas service. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has threatened to start a legal process to revoke the utility's license — a negotiating tactic he’s used before, with some results — and Attorney General Tish James is gathering customer complaints in an ongoing investigation. A standoff over a controversial pipeline that Grid says is needed to meet demand continues, but the utility is expected to propose alternatives next week and offer a public defense of its actions.“We're currently working through all the different engineering solutions that could be a non-pipeline solution,” National Grid CEO John Pettigrew said during an earnings call with analysts last week. “So, for example, as we're looking at things like energy efficiency, demand side management, we're looking at things like compressed natural gas, vaporization, increased capacity on our [liquefied natural gas] facilities … Ultimately, our objective is to be able to serve the customers.”Cuomo has acknowledged there are long-term gas constraints in the downstate region, which National Grid and Con Edison have warned regulators about for years. Grid's abrupt imposition of a moratorium on new gas hookups after the Cuomo administration rejected a permit for the Williams pipeline in May has drawn the ire of local officials, business and labor groups and environmental activists alike.The Legislature had planned to hold a joint hearing on the topic on Tuesday, but Sen. Kevin Parker (D-Brooklyn), chair of the Energy Committee, said Cuomo asked him to postpone it to allow the company time to propose alternatives. A new date has not yet been set.“I think this moratorium by National Grid is a sham, and they need to end it right away,” Parker said. “I don’t think holding the city hostage does anything for their case for the need for natural gas.”
New York Feud Over Gas Hurtles Toward a Utility’s Expulsion- -- In five days, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo may decide to expel one of the world’s biggest utilities from the state’s most populous region. That threat is the culmination of an extraordinary showdown between Cuomo and British energy giant National Grid Plc over the future of natural gas. The clash, hinging on the utility’s refusal to connect new gas customers, has already delayed thousands of construction projects across Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island. And it all began with New York rejecting a single permit for a pipeline, which the utility says is crucial for meeting surging gas demand in the region. The fight lays bare just how fraught America’s relationship with gas has grown. As hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has made the fuel cheap and plentiful, cities and states are pushing residents to switch to gas heating because it burns cleaner than oil. At the same time, left-leaning politicians argue pipelines will only prolong dependence on fossil fuel. While that debate is nationwide, nowhere has it become as explosive as in New York. “How unprecedented is it? It’s very,” Barclays Plc analyst Eric Beaumont said. “Both sides need to be willing to come to the table.” Time is fleeting. Cuomo has threatened to revoke National Grid’s license to operate its downstate gas business if it doesn’t have a plan by Nov. 26 to start connecting new customers. The two sides paint starkly different pictures of the problem. The utility -- which provides gas to more than 1.8 million homes and businesses in Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island -- says it doesn’t have a choice. Demand for gas is booming. Pipelines are full. Unless the state approves more, there’s not enough gas to serve new customers, the company says. “We’ve spent the last 10 years looking at the constraints associated with New York state,” National Grid Chief Executive Officer John Pettigrew said on a call with analysts this month. Cuomo says that’s bogus. In a letter last week, he blasted National Grid, saying its moratorium on new hookups was “either a fabricated device or a lack of competence.” The company, he said, hasn’t done enough to make its system more efficient and encourage conservation.
53 homes evacuated after contractor strikes gas line in Lawrence - Over 50 homes were evacuated in Lawrence Monday afternoon after a contractor struck a gas line, Lawrence firefighters said, triggering flashbacks to last year’s deadly outbreak of gas-fueled explosions and fires in the Lawrence area.A city contractor struck a low-pressure gas line at 15 Florence Ave. around 11:13 a.m., said Lawrence Fire Chief Brian F. Moriarty. Moriarty did not know which company the contactor worked for.“The gas has been shut off. No injuries, no fires, no explosions, but we’re setting up a shelter at the Arlington Street school because of the temperature. We don’t want people to get cold. The estimated repair time is 6 to 12 hours,” Moriarty said. Lawrence, Massachusetts, is the same community that was the site of a series of gas explosions in 2018.
Gas Pipes Have ‘Huge Vulnerability’ to Web Attack: Maine Senator - U.S. natural gas system should adhere to same cybersecurity standards as the power grid, Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, says in a telephone interview.
- King, who is on Senate intelligence committee, said that while risks across the U.S. are great, gas pipelines in particular have “a huge vulnerability” and industry isn’t “paying sufficient attention to it”
- King has been helping to develop a national strategy for cyber attacks, intrusions across sectors
- “A catastrophic cyber Pearl Harbor is a huge risk I don’t think is fully appreciated,” King says. “Right now our adversaries feel no cost for attacking...
Kentucky Regulators Side With Bernheim In Fight Over Gas Pipeline - Kentucky’s Energy and Environment Cabinet has fired its opening salvo in the fight over a proposed gas pipeline through Bernheim Forest. Louisville Gas & Electric filed an eminent domain lawsuit against the state in September to overturn a conservation easement and acquire land to build the pipeline. On Friday, the state filed a motion to dismiss the condemnation suit, arguing LG&E didn’t make an offer to buy the state’s conservation easement prior to filing the lawsuit, as required under state law. The motion amounts to a procedural delay tactic, but signifies the state’s willingness to defend its interests in the Bernheim property against the desires of LG&E, which plans to build a 12-mile-long natural gas pipeline through the conservation lands. LG&E spokeswoman Chris Whelan said in an emailed statement the state’s argument is “baseless” and “contrary to existing law.” “We will be responding in due course,” she said. The state declined to comment, citing ongoing litigation. The lawsuit has statewide ramifications. Kentucky environmentalists say it is the first time a utility has attempted to overturn a conservation easement held by the state, and it could result in weakening protections for natural areas throughout the Commonwealth. LG&E has filed lawsuits against Bernheim, farmers and most recently, a Kentucky state board, in an attempt to acquire the remaining pieces of land necessary to build the pipeline.
Revenue official: Downturns in gas, coal battering state tax collections - A global oversupply of natural gas is creating a domino effect that is causing natural gas and coal prices -- and demand for coal -- to plunge, contributing to a $33.26 million state budget shortfall through October, Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow told legislators Monday. “There’s just a flood of natural gas out there. It’s keeping prices low, not only for natural gas, but for the coal industry,” Muchow told the interim Joint Committee on Finance. As a result, year-to-date state severance tax collections are down 44.5 percent from the same point last year, missing revenue estimates by $33 million. Coal production has remained relatively steady to date, but Muchow said he expects that to drop as power plant stockpiles max out. Demand for metallurgical coal, used in steel production, has also dropped, as the global economic slowdown has created steel stockpiles, he said. “There’s excess steel in the global market, and with excess steel, there’s less need for metallurgical coal,” he said. Muchow noted that natural gas and coal companies are “hurting significantly” with the drop in prices and production. “Certainly, in the stock market, the worst performing sector is energy,” he said. Natural gas is also contributing to a downturn in state personal income tax collections, which are running $37.47 below estimates for the 2019-20 budget year, as natural gas pipeline construction projects have wrapped up, or are being held up in litigation, he said. “Last year, we had a whole bunch of construction workers in the field,” Muchow said. “That’s not true now.” While tax collections in August, September and October leveled off after July collections started off the new budget year with a disappointing $33 million shortfall, Muchow said November tax collections will come up short because of timing issues.
Investigators question NC governor’s pipeline fund actions (AP) — North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper appears to have “improperly used the authority and influence of his office” to pressure natural gas pipeline builders to agree to a $57.8 million mitigation fund under his control, private investigators reported Wednesday. The report’s authors, however, found no evidence that the Democratic governor personally benefited from the fund. Cooper’s office slammed the report as “full of inaccuracies and contradictions.” A Republican-controlled legislative committee hired the former federal agents a year ago to review the January 2018 side deal between the governor’s office and utilities working on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. Cooper’s environmental department announced a key water permit had been issued the same day the mitigation fund “memorandum of understanding” with the governor’s office was unveiled. The money the pipeline operators — Duke Energy, Dominion Energy and others — had agreed to pay was intended for environmental mitigation, renewable energy and economic development projects along the proposed pipeline’s route in eastern North Carolina. Cooper and his aides have said repeatedly that the mitigation package wasn’t a prerequisite for the permit. But Republicans, unconvinced, turned to Eagle Intel Services to investigate, at a cost of $83,000. The report’s authors said their investigation didn’t focus specifically on whether crimes happened, and an investigative agency with more powers could potentially determine that. But the report said “the information suggests that criminal violations may have occurred.”
Years after starting signature collection, anti-fracking group continues legal effort to get on Michigan ballot - Supporters of a statewide ban on horizontal fracking in Michigan came up short on signatures when they attempted to qualify for the 2016 ballot.But the Committee to Ban Fracking in Michigan still hasn’t given up hope on making the ballot in 2020, continuing a years-long battle in the courts to compel the state to accept their ballot language.Under existing Michigan law, ballot initiatives must collect the requisite number of signatures - which are dictated by the number of votes received in the last gubernatorial election - within a 180-day window.The anti-fracking effort collected a little over 150,000 signatures of the 252,253 needed at the time during a 180-day window in an effort to make the 2016 ballot. Instead of starting from scratch or reigniting their attempt the next election cycle, the group kept going, collecting the needed amount by Nov. 5, 2018 - three years after they’d started. Previously, the Committee to Ban Fracking in Michigan filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s 180-day window, which was dismissed in 2016. The group is now asking state courts in a different suit to compel the Secretary of State to accept their petition signatures, which were rejected in part because the petition sheets still bear reference to the 2016 election, campaign director LuAnne Kozma said. That effort is currently before the Michigan Court of Appeals. The Attorney General’s office has argued the committee’s suit should be thrown out, stating in a brief filed with the Michigan Court of Claims earlier this year that the committee does not meet current signature gathering requirements, as the 2018 gubernatorial election increased the number of signatures required.
Oil pipeline divides Michigan Democrats, unions ahead of 2020 — A fight among key supporters of Michigan Democrats is raging inside the state Capitol, and some Democrats worry it could spill over into the 2020 election. The disagreement is over Enbridge's plans to construct a tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac to replace its Line 5 oil pipelines and attempt to prevent any catastrophe from a potential rupture. Environmentalists have opposed plans for the tunnel and want the line decommissioned as soon as possible, but some labor groups want the tunnel built. In the middle are Democratic lawmakers who usually have support from both sets of interests. The contentious battle comes as House Democrats have experienced a drop so far this year in contributions from building trades unions, according to a Detroit News analysis of campaign finance disclosures. Many of them care deeply about protecting the Line 5 tunnel project. The fight is also dividing Democrats when they are close to recapturing control of the House. If they flip four Republican seats next year, they would get control of the chamber for the first time since 2010. If they win three GOP seats, they would split control with Republicans. One lawmaker, Rep. Laurie Pohutsky, D-Livonia, said she'd been told Democrats who opposed the tunnel would no longer be considered allies of labor groups in the building trades. Labor groups, including the Operating Engineers, the Michigan Laborers and the Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council, want the tunnel built because it would generate jobs and an estimated $500 million investment. Supporters argue the tunnel would safeguard against an oil spill in the Straits of Mackinac. Line 5, which was built in 1953, carries up to 540,000 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids per day, according to Enbridge. Environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club, Clean Water Action and the Michigan League of Conservation Voters, oppose plans for the tunnel because they view Line 5 as a threat to the Great Lakes and want it decommissioned right away.
Nessel: Punishing Dems over Line 5 not a good idea — Punishing Democratic lawmakers for opposing the construction of a tunnel in the Straits of Mackinac "will not benefit" the building trades, Attorney General Dana Nessel cautioned Tuesday in a series of social media posts. "If unions in this state have learned anything over the last decade, it is this: Republicans in the state Legislature are not your friend," Nessel added. "Democratic majorities are essential to Michigan regaining its status as a state which supports workers and their families." Nessel sent out the tweets in reaction to a Detroit News report on division within the Michigan Democratic Party over plans to construct a tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac to replace the 66-year-old Line 5 oil pipelines. As some House Democrats have opposed the tunnel and court cases have left the project in limbo, building trades unions have decreased or halted their contributions to key House Democratic fundraising committees this year, an analysis of campaign finance records found. But Nessel defended Democrats' work to support the building trades on other matters. The Democratic Party is the party that worked for "decent wages and benefits" and safe working conditions for members of the trades, Nessel argued. "Punishing Dems who are determined to preserve the sanctity of the Great Lakes due solely to the issue of Line 5 will not benefit the trades," Nessel wrote. "It is the definition of cutting off one(')s nose to spite its face." Amid growing worries that Enbridge's Line 5 oil pipelines in the Straits of Mackinac could rupture and harm the Great Lakes, the Canadian company has proposed building the tunnel beneath the Straits to house its dual pipelines. Plans for the $500 million project have gained the backing of building trades unions that often support Democratic candidates in Michigan. The tunnel agreement was brokered by Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder and mostly GOP lawmakers.
Enbridge completes straits work, turns to tunnel design - Enbridge Energy finished its geotechnical work in the Straits of Mackinac on Sunday, concluding a phase that will serve as the foundation of boring and design plans for a more than four-mile tunnel to house the company’s controversial Line 5 oil pipeline. This sets the stage for the Canadian energy company to plan the design of the tunnel and set about getting more permits for a construction project that the Whitmer administration opposes. Enbridge extracted samples from 27 holes drilled on shore, in shallow, and at the deepest segments of the Straits. It capped the company’s $40 million investment in 2019 in the tunnel despite the state’s lawsuit seeking to stop it. Enbridge Energy extracted samples from 27 holes drilled on shore, in shallow, and at the deepest segments of the Straits of Mackinac, capping Enbridge’s $40 million investment in 2019 in preliminary work for a tunnel to house the Line 5 oil pipeline. “It’s with this data now that we’ll be able to make some of the most important decisions about how we’ll design and construct this tunnel,” said Amber Pastoor, project manager for the tunnel. The results will be particularly useful in determining the characteristics of the tunnel boring machine needed to complete the project as well as the exact alignment of the tunnel, Pastoor said. After years of concern from environmentalists about the 66-year-old pipeline, Enbridge Energy entered into a series of agreements with Michigan last year that would require the company to pay up to $500 million to build a tunnel below the Straits of Mackinac lake bed to house Line 5. The agreements made under Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder were challenged by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel, who opined that the agreements were unconstitutional. When negotiations regarding a shorter construction period were unsuccessful, Enbridge asked the Michigan Court of Claims to find the agreements were constitutional. A judge rejected Nessel's argument, but the Democratic attorney general has appealed the decision.
Hard times for Wisconsin sand: Amid flagging sales, Hi-Crush writes off $215M in mine value - In a sign of the bleak economic conditions facing Wisconsin’s frac sand industry, one company has devalued two of its mines by more than $215 million. Hi-Crush Inc. last week announced the devaluation of its idled August and Whitehall mines by $109.7 million and $105.7 million each. That’s in addition to a $131 million write-off for rail cars, terminals, other assets and goodwill. The Texas-based company declared the asset impairments in an earnings report that tallied $268.5 million in losses during the third quarter.Impairment is an accounting tool used when the value of an asset on the books is less than the fair market value. “It’s an effort to move the balance sheet closer to reality,” said Brian Mayhew, professor of accounting at UW-Madison. “It’s them recognizing these mines aren’t worth what they paid for them.” The primary reason for asset impairment, Mayhew said, is to avoid misleading creditors with an inflated balance sheet. Hi-Crush said the decision resulted from a general oversupply of sand and a shift to locally produced sand in the highly productive oil fields of Texas and New Mexico. “We do not see this trend reversing and as a result our Northern White sand assets have been impacted,” Hi-Crush CFO Laura Fulton said during a conference call with investors. U.S. Silica, also based in Texas, lost $23 million in the third quarter. The company said in its quarterly report that it may have to impair assets if sand sales and prices continue to decline.
Evers signs bill making it a felony to trespass on pipelines (AP) — Gov. Tony Evers signed into law a bipartisan proposal Wednesday making it a felony to trespass or damage oil or gas pipelines in Wisconsin, a measure that opponents said would violate free speech rights and disproportionately affect Native Americans whose lands are often affected by pipeline projects. Evers said he had problems with the bill but signed it anyway. “I have said — and reaffirm today — that our Tribal Nations deserve to have a voice in the policies and legislation that affect indigenous persons and our state,” Evers said in a statement. “I expect that moving forward members of the Legislature will engage in meaningful dialogue and consultation with Wisconsin’s Tribal Nations before developing and advancing policies that directly or indirectly affect our Tribal Nations and indigenous persons in Wisconsin.” The new law builds upon a 2015 state law that made it a felony to intentionally trespass or cause damage to the property of an energy provider. The bill Evers signed expands the definition of energy provider to include oil and gas pipelines, renewable fuel, and chemical and water infrastructure. Those found guilty could face up to $10,000 in fines and six years in prison. The measure has broad support from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, organized labor unions, utilities, the state chamber of commerce and a variety of trade groups representing farmers, restaurants, the paper industry and others. Supporters downplayed its intent, calling it the fix to an oversight from the earlier law.
Democratic bill sparks debate over mixing pipeline safety, climate policy | S&P Global Platts — Legislation offered by Democrats in the US House of Representatives that would inject climate policy into a periodic pipeline safety agency reauthorization has polarized parties over whether marrying these two issues represents environmental progress or cumbersome complication. The bill - introduced by Representatives Frank Pallone of New Jersey and Peter DeFazio of Oregon - immediately drew pushback because it was drafted without input from Republicans, raising questions about its viability in the GOP-controlled Senate and the breakdown of the historically bipartisan process. The legislation is also raising eyebrows because it explicitly aims to mitigate climate change. The legislation, which reauthorizes and funds the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, traditionally focuses on proposing measures to prevent infrastructure accidents in the energy and other sectors. Industry groups including the American Gas Association and Interstate Natural Gas Association of America immediately called on lawmakers to return to a cooperative process. "We encourage you to maintain the tradition of bipartisanship that has characterized pipeline safety legislation for decades. We worry that absent such an approach, PHMSA will remain unauthorized and important opportunities to enhance our nation's pipeline safety program will be forfeited," the heads of seven industry groups said in a letter to the House committees chaired by Pallone and DeFazio. The Pipeline Safety Trust, an advocacy group representing citizens, also raised concerns that lack of compromise could stand in the way of implementing measures to hold PHMSA and pipeline operators accountable and help the agency implement long-stalled rules.
Natural gas, false hope in climate change campaign? (AFP) - Natural gas is cleaner and produces fewer global warming emissions than other fossil fuels, making it key to our transition to a low-carbon future, but it comes with its own serious drawbacks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said recently that natural gas is crucial to its sustainable development model which requires oil and coal use to fall sharply if we are to get anywhere near the Paris agreement climate change targets. Natural gas is relatively cheap, abundant and produces 50 percent less CO2 than coal, used widely, especially in Asia to generate electricity for fast growing economies. In its latest annual report, the IEA pencilled in a 10 percent increase in natural gas use through to the end of the 2020s while oil use would have to return to levels last seen in the 1990s. Some NGOs, however, attack the IEA -- set up after the first great oil shock in 1973-74 to advise countries how to manage their energy needs -- for being overly beholden to nae-say governments such as the United States, and the huge fossil fuel companies. Rather than recommending an increase in the use of natural gas, the IEA should be calling for a reduction, they say. Murray Worthy at Global Witness said "governments should not be misled... and should rather work on closing down existing oil and gas fields, and halting exploration for new reserves." Significantly, the European Investment Bank (EIB), the lending arm of the European Union, recently announced that it would halt funding new fossil energy projects, including natural gas, from 2022. For some, natural gas is the ideal transition fuel, with major companies such as Total and Shell producing increasing amounts and launching new projects which stretch for decades into the future.
NYMEX December natural gas crashes 12.2 cents on lower demand | S&P Global Platts— The NYMEX December natural gas futures contract slumped 12.2 cents to settle at $2.566/MMBtu Monday as a forecast of warmer-than-usual temperatures led to weaker demand. The front-month contract traded in a range between $2.551/MMBtu and $2.65/MMBtu Monday. The remainder of the winter strip - December 2019 through March 2020 - also weakened Monday, falling 11 cents to average $2.565/MMBtu. "We've had an early start to winter, but I think we are going to start returning to more normal temperatures for this time of year. Those warmer temperatures could keep us below $2.60 for as long as the weather holds," After averaging 110 Bcf/d for the last seven days, total US gas demand was expected to fall below 100 Bcf on Monday to 99.19 Bcf. Looking ahead, S&P Global Platts Analytics expects total gas demand to average 99.4 Bcf/d in the coming week and 100.5 Bcf/d in the week after that. Export demand is forecast to remain strong over the next week, with shipments to Mexico expected to average 5.3 Bcf/d and LNG feedgas demand set to average 7.3 Bcf/d. US-wide gas production was expected to fall 300 MMcf day on day to 92.2 Bcf, according to Platts Analytics. Despite the day-on-day decrease, Monday's production level was up 150 MMcf/d from its prior seven-day average of 92.05/MMBtu. Platts Analytics estimates gas production will average 92.3 Bcf/d over the coming two weeks. Looking ahead, the US National Weather Service's eight- to 14-day outlook shows normal temperatures across the Upper Midwest and along the East Coast. It shows warmer-than-normal temperatures in California and Florida, as well as colder-than-normal temperatures in the Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Southwest and Southeast.
US natural gas storage volume falls by 94 Bcf to 3.638 Tcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US working natural gas volumes in underground storage dropped by 94 Bcf week on week, decreasing by nearly triple the five-year average and marking the first net withdrawal of the year. The NYMEX Henry Hub winter strip fell about 1 cent following the number's release as much smaller draws loom. Storage inventories fell to 3.638 Tcf for the week ended November 15, US Energy Information Administration data showed Thursday morning. The pull was more than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 91 Bcf draw. Survey responses ranged from a withdrawal of 78 Bcf to 102 Bcf. The withdrawal was less than the 109 Bcf withdrawal reported during the corresponding week in 2018, but was much larger than the five-year average draw of 32 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 506 Bcf, or 16%, more than the year-ago level of 3.132 Tcf and 60 Bcf, or 1.6%, more than the five-year average of 3.698 Tcf. The massive draw was driven by temperatures falling about 10 degrees below normal across the eastern half of the US. This resulted in residential and commercial demand gaining 10.3 Bcf/d week over week, according to data from S&P Global Platts Analytics. Total supplies increased by 0.8 Bcf/d to average 97.3 Bcf/d. Production stayed steady, and the increase in supply was led by a nearly 1 Bcf/d increase in net Canadian imports into the Northeast US, where colder weather boosted demand by more than 6 Bcf/d, accounting for roughly half of the overall US demand growth. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract added 2 cents to $2.58/MMBtu following the announcement. The Henry Hub balance-of-winter contact strip traded roughly flat at $2.55, as the weekly storage report showed an inventory decline roughly in line with market expectations. The strip has continued shedding gains racked up during the early-winter demand spike seen in early November, and so far, prices have fallen by about 30 cents from the recent high of $2.85 on November 5. In the last week alone, winter gas prices have fallen by about 10 cents as weather forecasts point to mostly normal weather through the next two weeks.
US Weather Service forecast adds downside risk to gas demand, prices | S&P Global Platts— Above-average temperatures across much of the continental US this winter could limit gas demand for heating, a forecast published Thursday by the US National Weather Service showed. A series of outlooks extending from December to February predicted a 33% to 50% chance for warmer-than-normal weather in almost every US region, excluding portions of the Midwest and Plains. The forecast poses downside risk for gas prices during the coldest months of winter when the market has historically rallied to annual highs, which topped $4.70/MMBtu at the Henry Hub last season. After approaching $2.90/MMBtu earlier this month, the December-January-February forward strip price at the benchmark US gas hub has already witnessed a steady decline, settling Wednesday at an average $2.58/MMBtu, S&P Global Platts M2MS data shows. The Weather Service forecast now poses additional downside for gas prices this winter, especially in December when key heating-demand states including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey face a 40% chance for warmer temperatures. Through February, most of the Northeast is also facing a 33% chance for above-average temperatures, with an accompanying risk for heating demand. During a normal winter, the Northeast alone accounts for over 35% of US residential-commercial gas demand, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Averaging 35.8 Bcf/d in first-half November, US residential-commercial gas demand posted its strongest start to the heating season in over five years, but now appears to be facing headwinds. Over the past week, res-comm demand has averaged just 33.8 Bcf/d, trailing the prior five-year average by 2.7 Bcf/d or more than 7%, Platts Analytics data shows.
FERC poised to make permit decisions on four LNG export projects in Texas - Federal regulators appear poised to make permit decisions on the applications submitted by four liquefied natural gas export terminals in Texas. After more than three years of review, commissioners with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have placed permit decisions for the four projects on the agenda for the agency’s Thursday morning meeting. Three of the proposed projects are to build new LNG export terminals at the Port of Brownsville in the Rio Grande Valley while the fourth is for an expansion of Corpus Christi LNG, a South Texas export terminal owned by Houston liquefied natural gas company Cheniere Energy. Houston liquefied natural gas companies NextDecade, Annova LNG and Texas LNG are seeking to build brand new export terminals along the Brownsville Ship Channel, which is located just a few miles away from the U.S./Mexico border. As part of a planned third stage of expansion, Cheniere is seeking permission to add seven midscale LNG production units to its export terminal in nearby Corpus Christi. If approved, all four projects would take natural gas from the Permian Basin of West Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas and others sources and then use massive plants to supercool the gas until it becomes a liquid that can be loaded on tankers and shipped to customers all over the world.
FERC signs off on four proposed US LNG export projects — Four proposed US LNG export projects, including three that would be built near the underutilized Brownsville, Texas, port, gained certificate approval Thursday from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The approvals bolster the likelihood that the biggest obstacle for additional liquefaction capacity in the US may be developers' ability to secure sufficient commercial agreements to get financing for construction. The three Brownsville projects include NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG, which entails a terminal with up to six liquefaction trains, with a total design capacity of 27 million mt/year; Exelon-backed Annova LNG's 6 million mt/year project; and Texas LNG Brownsville, approved for 4 million mt/year and expected to include 2 million mt/year in the first phase. Also gaining approval was Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi Stage III expansion, comprising up to seven midscale liquefaction trains capable of producing up to 9.5 million mt/year of LNG, one LNG storage tank, compression, and 21 miles of pipeline in San Patricio County, Texas. The vote on all the four projects was 2-1, with Commissioner Richard Glick dissenting. Glick had concerns about FERC's refusal to consider the significance of greenhouse gas emissions impacts, as well as on FERC's response to species impacts associated with the three closely related Brownsville projects. The action continues FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee's focus on moving through FERC's large queue of proposed LNG projects, mostly proposed along the Gulf Coast. He commended staff for a "monumental achievement" of certifying 20.2 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity over the last year, helping to ensure that "we don't miss this crucial period for developing an export market for US gas." In addition to that 20.2 Bcf/d, this year 2.8 Bcf/d of liquefaction capacity has entered service, bringing the total to 32 Bcf/d authorized, with 13 Bcf/d under construction, commissioning or preparing for development, Chatterjee said. After the three Brownsville LNG projects received their final environmental reports in the spring, they had been waiting for a final decision for months, raising some questions about whether cumulative impacts flagged -- for instance on federally listed wildcat and falcon species -- could have complicated FERC's decision-making. At the open meeting, Glick suggested FERC fell short in its order of considering the significant impacts identified against the benefits. "We just say there are significant impacts and we don't do anything," he said. The approvals also covered the 137-mile Rio Bravo pipeline from Agua Dulce to the Rio Grande terminal.
Federal regulators OK controversial South Texas gas export facilities - Federal energy regulators on Thursday greenlighted three liquefied natural gas projects proposed for the Rio Grande Valley that a coalition of local residents and indigenous and environmental groups have fervently rallied against. After several years of review, the three-member Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted to authorize permit applications to build LNG terminals at the Port of Brownsville that would receive natural gas produced in West and South Texas and convert it to liquid form so it can be exported around the world. Commissioners also approved a permit application from Houston-based Cheniere Energy to increase production capacity at its existing LNG terminal at the Port of Corpus Christi. The Brownsville projects are known as Texas LNG Brownsville, Rio Grande LNG and Annova LNG. The first is a venture of an independent energy company by the same name. Rio Grande LNG is owned by Houston-based NextDecade, and Annova LNG is owned by out-of-state companies including Exelon, Black & Veatch, and Kiewit. The projects still must secure other permits from state and federal energy and environmental regulatory agencies before they can break ground, but Thursday's vote was a crucial step.
Headwinds Loom for LNG Consumption - The United States’ ascent to the top tier of global natural gas producers, and its more recent rise within the cadre of major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, has effected an evolution in the gas market. “Tremendous U.S. natural gas growth, growing U.S. LNG exports, new pricing mechanisms and a global race for infrastructure buildout is intensifying competition in the LNG markets,” remarked Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy. “The changes coming will transform energy pricing and consumption in many parts of the world.” Noting that dramatic growth in LNG supplies from the U.S. represents a major driver in reshaping the global LNG market, ESAI analyst Chris Cote told Rigzone the oversupply situation is forcing new producers to maintain flexibility in supply contracts. He pointed out that “plenty of feedgas” is priced below the Henry Hub benchmark and above the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) and the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF) trading point. “U.S. liquefaction facilities remain flexible in what pricing mechanisms they use to get U.S. gas to the international market,” Cote said. Cote observed that LNG supply deals in 2019 have been indexed to JKM, Henry Hub and to the Brent crude oil price. He was quick to add, however, that U.S. LNG exporters could start to face pressure if JKM falls closer to Henry Hub and freight rates go up. Moreover, given the U.S. liquefaction capacity buildout, he noted the best-positioned project developers can do two things: secure more equity investment in their projects, and start up their facilities first. Project developers are applying more innovative financing arrangements to source low-cost feedgas from U.S. producers that lack international market access, Cote pointed out. To be sure, he underscored the importance of timing. In the case of siting, any delays tied to federal licensing and approval could put a project at a disadvantage and enable a competitor to get to market first, he said. Furthermore, he said that “brownfield” expansions – adding liquefaction trains to existing LNG facilities – present clear cost and timing advantages over new “greenfield” plants.
Chesapeake Energy's Long Fight For Survival Reaches A Critical Point - The company’s financial difficulties were highlighted again recently in the wake of Chesapeake management’s warning to investors in its Q3 2019 SEC filings that “substantial doubt” exists that the company will be able to continue as a going concern. There was a ray of hope on Wednesday, when Morgan Stanley said, “While we expect the company to successfully manage through the potential covenant breach in 2020, it will likely require strategic action and/or waivers,” even as it lowered its price target for Chesapeake from $2.25 to $1.25.Certainly, a major sale of some of the company’s assets would amount to a “strategic action.” Dallas Cowboys Owner Jerry Jones has made no secret of his desire for the company he controls, Frisco-based Comstock Resources, to become the biggest player in the Haynesville Shale region of northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas. In fact, thanks to Comstock’s June $2.2 billion acquisition of Covey Park, LLC, the company is already well along the way to reaching that goal.This week brought news, reported by Reuters, that Jones’s company is in the midst of negotiations to buy Chesapeake’s remaining Haynesville assets. Reuters reports that the deal “could be worth more than $1 billion” and that “the companies have settled on a structure for the deal and hope to reach an agreement by the end of the year.” Such a deal would amount to at least a band-aid that would provide cash to allow Chesapeake to pay down a portion of its $9.7 billion in debt, a monumental amount given that the company’s market cap as of mid-day on November 15 was $1.37 billion, as its stock was trading at $.70 per share.A potential Haynesville deal with Comstock would certainly qualify as a strategic action. On the other hand, it’s reminiscent of the multiple asset/interest sales the company deployed under previous management in order to service debt and keep hope alive. Whether one more sale can buy the company enough time to implement additional strategic actions that would enable a full return to corporate health remains to be seen.
Equinor estimates another six months for oil spill cleanup -- Equinor has begun to demobilize its heavy machinery as oil spill recovery efforts on Grand Bahama shift focus to the nearby impacted forest for the next six months. The company – formally known as Statoil – confirmed that 55,000 barrels of oil spilled at the South Riding Point facility in East Grand Bahama during the passage of Hurricane Dorian. Speaking to Eyewitness News on the status of that clean-up effort, Equinor’s Country Manager Tanya Rigby-Seymour said: “All the free-standing oil and oil liquid, that has all been recovered. “There will always be a few residuals, kind of very tacky sticky oil that’s weathered out there and we’ll leave that up to the environment such as the rain and the sun that will take care of that. “That we can’t actually take up but the majority almost all of the free-standing oil has been recovered.” Rigby-Seymour explained that the company has recovered just over 58,000 barrels of oily liquid which is made up of oil and rainwater. Last month, Save The Bays claimed water testing conducted at five locations near the facility, indicate critical wetland habitats have been contaminated. STB raised concerns that contamination will eventually make its way into freshwater resources, as the wetlands serve to filter water before it enters the water table. However, Minister of Environment Romauld Ferreira told Eyewitness News last week that the first round of testing from wells monitoring the spill revealed there has been no groundwater contamination. The company confirmed this in a statement yesterday. “Equinor has initiated a surveillance and monitoring program to ensure quality of the groundwater in the areas impacted by the oil spill from the terminal after the impact of hurricane Dorian,” the company said. “The first testing from 22 monitoring wells has now been completed without detection of any groundwater contaminant from the oil spill." “As far as the environmental impact, we still have the forest that has the oil on the trees and some of the shrubs. That’s our focus going forward. “So we estimate probably we will be in there in the area north of the terminal for probably another six months, manually pruning and sheering the trees, the oil vegetation.”At its peak, the company had over 350 people involved in the oil spill response. “We have not let go of any employees and we will continue to employ them throughout.” She added that the company does not know as yet the operation costs for cleanup and recovery efforts.
Coast Guard to oversee burn of oil discharge near Larose Monday - The Coast Guard is scheduled to oversee an in-situ burn for a crude oil discharge in Delta Farms, Louisiana, Monday.Watchstanders at Marine Safety Unit Houma received the initial report of the oil discharge in an unnamed canal southwest of Bayou Perot at 1:30 p.m. on November 9th.The source of the spill was determined to be from a flowline owned by Texas Petroleum Investment Company (TPIC).Approximately 340 gallons of crude oil was discharged, and the source has been secured.Containment boom was deployed to prevent the spread of oil; however, the oil is trapped within the floating marsh, in an area inaccessible for mechanical recovery. In-situ burning involves the controlled burning of discharged oil. It is one of several response options aimed at reducing environmental impact when responding to spills in marshland habitats. OMI Environmental Solutions and T&T Marine Salvage have been contracted to conduct the in-situ burn.Operations are scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. and is estimated to last until 3:30 p.m. Involved in the response are:
- Texas Petroleum Investment Company
- Coast Guard Marine Safe Unit Houma
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Coast Guard Gulf Strike Team
- Coast Guard Aids to Navigation Team Dulac
- Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Morgan City
- Louisiana Oil Spill Coordinator’s Office
- Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality
- Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
The cause of the incident is under investigation.
Coast Guard responding to oil spill near Port Arthur -Coast Guard Sector Houston-Galveston watchstanders received a report of a collision involving the offshore supply vessel Cheramie Botruc 22 and tug vessel Mariya Moran near the entrance to Sabine Pass Thursday morning. Personnel from Coast Guard Station Sabine, Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Port Arthur, Texas General Land Office, Oil Spill Removal Organization, OMI Environmental Solutions and Environmental Safety and Health were launched to the scene and confirmed one of the vessel’s fuel tanks had been impacted. An estimate of 3,000 gallons of diesel fuel was spilled. The source of the release has been secured and the spill has been contained. Boom and sorbent material have been placed around the vessel while it remains anchored outside of the channel. The cause of the collision is under investigation. No injuries were reported. The Coast Guard and Texas General Land Office personnel will continue to monitor recovery efforts.
New study blames some fracking practices for Eagle Ford earthquakes - Earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing are more common in the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas than previously thought, a new study reveals. Researchers with Miami University in Oxford, Ohio and the U.S. Geological Survey analyzed more than 2,800 earthquakes recorded in the South Texas shale play between 2014 and 2018.In a recently published study, the researchers revealed that more than 2,400 of those earthquakes could be linked to hydraulic fracturing activity and that certain industry practices were more likely to trigger them.Earthquakes were twice as likely to happen when operators simultaneously injected fluids into multiple nearby wells compared to when they injected fluids into multiple wells one at a time, the researchers determined. Out of the 2,823 earthquakes analyzed in the study, only 121 of them registered above a magnitude 2.0 on the Richter Scale, which would have been strong enough to be felt by some close to the epicenter.The Miami University study was released a month after researchers with the University of Texas at Austin published a study that linked hydraulic fracturing to some earthquakes in the Permian Basin of West Texas. Previous studies blamed the shale play earthquakes on an industry practice of injecting oil field wastewater deep underground. Those studies prompted the Railroad Commission of Texas, the state agency that regulates the oil and natural gas industry, to enact stricter rules and regulations for saltwater disposal wells. Favoring regulations based on science, Texas Oil & Gas Association President Todd Staples said his organization created a committee that allows members to work with seismologists, geologists and regulators to address the issue of earthquakes. “The oil and natural gas industry is actively working to mitigate impact through recommended practices including pre-completion risk assessment, proper monitoring, and mitigation protocols," Staples said in a statement.
Texas oil industry cutting payroll amid slowdown - Texas energy companies are cutting their workforces amid sluggish growth in the sector, the Texas Workforce Commission reported Friday.Payroll employment in the mining and logging sector, which is dominated by the oil and gas industry, fell by 2,000 jobs in October. The sector has shed jobs through much of the second half of 2019.Other indicators point to a slowdown for the Texas energy industry as well. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States fell by 11 this week as companies continue to pull rigs from operation because of a slowing global economy that has pressured energy demand and prices, which are mired between $50 and $60 per barrel. At the same time, as producers’ profits have suffered, investors have lost patience with the shale industry, known for overspending, and pulled their money out. In the Houston region, employers added 8,000 jobs from September, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. Over the year, the local economy has added 80,600 jobs, a growth of 2.6 percent.The local unemployment rate was 3.5 percent.The energy slowdown hasn’t appeared to have reached the office towers of Houston yet. Employment in oil and gas extraction grew by 2,900 jobs, or about 8 percent, over the year. But some experts are skeptical that the pace will stay positive much longer.“The jobs in the Permian are going to go first, but at some point that’s going to temper hiring here,” said Parker Harvey, an economist at Workforce Solutions. “How many additional lawyers, accountants and engineers do you really need (in Houston) when oil is in such a tight range?”
Approach Resources Files for Chapter 11 - Approach Resources Inc. and its subsidiaries have started a Chapter 11 bankruptcy case to explore strategic alternatives, including restructuring of its balance sheet or the sale of its business. The company has also received a commitment from its pre-petition lenders for $16.5 million in new money debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing. Approach plans to use its available cash along with the DIP financing to pay expenses related to the bankruptcy and for additional liquidity. The company will continue normal operations and says it expects to have enough liquidity to pay all employees, vendors and suppliers for services and products during the Chapter 11 process. Upon court approval, the DIP financing will be provided by its current syndicate of RBL lenders, with JPMorgan Chase Bank as administrative agent. The company also is asking for court approval of a variety of other “first day” motions to guarantee it can continue to operate in the ordinary course of business. Approach Resources focuses on developing oil and gas reserves in the Midland Basin of the greater Permian Basin in West Texas. According to its website, the company’s highlights include 11.2 MBoe/d 2018 average daily production, 180.1 MMBoe 2018 proved reserves and 165,000 gross acres in the Permian. Its assets as of 2018 were 60 percent oil and NGL proved reserves. As of press time, AREX shares were trading at 0.022 per share, down 31 percent from the market open price. According to Yahoo Finance, the latest 52-week change in the stock price saw a steep decline of 98 percent.
Lack of Credit Is Latest Blow to Shale Industry - -- Banks have begun trimming back the credit lines of America’s shale producers, further undercutting a beleaguered industry that’s been struggling to rebuild investor confidence. Laredo Petroleum Inc. and Oasis Petroleum Inc. are among at least six producers whose ability to secure short-term loans against their oil and natural gas reserves have dropped by 10% or more, according to data in earnings statements and filings. The declines offer the first hint of results from a semi-annual bank review of the industry’s borrowing capacity that generally runs through December. For the first time since 2016, an industry survey done prior to the review found most respondents expected to see declines. The noose is tightening at a time when producers have seen their market values plunge 21% this year. Meanwhile, at least 15 producers have already filed for bankruptcy during the year. A substantive decline in borrowing base “can be a good precursor to potential bankruptcy because as capital markets stay closed off for these companies, the borrowing base serves as the only source of liquidity,” Bondholders and other lenders are increasingly wary of what’s unfolding in shale. Chesapeake Energy Corp., once the nation’s largest gas supplier, warned earlier this month it may struggle to avoid bankruptcy. While fracking has turbocharged U.S. oil and gas output in recent years, that success has helped drive down oil prices to almost half what they were five years ago. In some cases, producers are struggling under debt loads accumulated in earlier, more heady times. But other issues are at play as well: Some have drilled their best locations and are now turning to lower-quality sites. And some have been drilling wells too close together, resulting in a loss of overall performance. At the same time, energy is the only sector yielding negative returns in the high-yield debt market, falling over 2% compared to a nearly 12% gain for its index.
Exxon Credit Rating Outlook Lowered by Moody's-- Exxon Mobil Corp. had the outlook on its top-notch debt rating lowered by Moody’s Investors Service Inc. to negative due to a “substantial” cash burn to fund growth. The oil major’s credit metrics will probably weaken over the next few years as it pursues a rebuild of its upstream portfolio, as well as new chemical facilities and refinery upgrades, Moody’s said in a statement Tuesday. The outlook on its Aaa rating was reduced from stable. “ExxonMobil’s negative outlook reflects the company’s substantial negative free cash flow and expected reliance on debt to fund its large growth capital spending program,” Peter Speer, a senior vice president at Moody’s, said in the statement. Debt will likely rise despite asset sales, he said. Over the past 10 quarters, Exxon has frequently spent more cash on its operations and dividends than it generated as it ramps up mega projects from Guyana to Mozambique. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods says now is a good time to be investing while rivals are retreating. But investors are wary, with the stock underperforming rivals over the past five years. “The company’s high level of growth capital investments cannot be funded with operating cash flow and asset sales at projected levels given ExxonMobil’s substantial dividend payout,” Moody’s said. During the 2016 oil price crash, S&P Global Inc. stripped Exxon of its highest AAA credit rating for the first time in the producer’s history, cutting it by one notch to AA+. “The rating continues to be a reflection of the company’s consistent and prudent approach to financial management through a full range of business cycles,” a representative for Exxon said in an emailed statement.
Exclusive: Exxon aims to sell $25 billion of assets to focus on mega-projects – sources (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil
The First Sign Of A Consolidation Wave In U.S. Shale - Fund manager Paulson & Co. Inc, a shareholder of Callon Petroleum, is dropping its opposition to a merger between Callon and Carrizo Oil & Gas that could be the start of consolidation among smaller shale players after the massive Occidental-Anadarko deal.Paulson & Co, which held 9.5 percent of Callon Petroleum earlier in November, said on Monday that it no longer opposes the deal and would vote in favor of the proposed all-stock merger, after the two energy companies revised the terms of the agreement to give a lower premium to Carrizo shareholders.Paulson will, however, cut its shares in Callon.The first announcement of the proposed merger was made in July. The terms of the initial deal valued Carrizo at US$1.2 billion.But Paulson has been opposing the terms of the proposed deal, saying that a standalone Callon would be less risky by focusing just on the Permian.In an effort to save the deal, Callon and Carrizo amended the terms of the deal last week, cutting the exchange ratio for the all-stock merger, which now implies a much lower premium for Carrizo shareholders—6.7 percent, compared to 25 percent premium in the initial terms of the deal. Paulson has argued that the initially proposed steep premium was not worth the spend, and Callon would no longer be a pure Permian play producer after picking up Carrizo. The revised merger terms were satisfactory to Paulson, which said today it no longer opposes the deal, but it cut its shareholding in Callon, although it was unclear by how much.
Are Investors Really Leaving Oil and Gas? -There has been a growing push for universities and the investment community at-large to divest from publically traded oil and gas companies. Advocates for stronger climate change policies demand that investors embrace environmental-social-governance, or ESG. The overarching goal is to install “sustainable” investment by forcing the oil and gas industry to report how CO2 reduction laws and more natural disasters from climate change will impact business operations. But at the most extreme, these advocates insist that, since oil and gas are major contributors to rising CO2 levels and climate change, investments should simply not be made in the companies that produce and/or transport them. For the industry itself, the obvious problem is that oil and gas are the very basis of their existence. Thus, the only way to fully comply with climate activists is to get out business entirely. The industry has mostly ignored calls for more climate disclosure, knowing full well that oil and gas are just too essential not to be produced. Activist shareholders, however, are growing more restless as more natural disasters get tied to climate change. Pension funds, loan institutions, insurance companies and religious organizations are also calling for oil and gas divestment. Cities such as San Francisco and New York have gone so far as to sue the oil and gas companies for keeping investors “in the dark” on climate change’s impact on their bottom line. And first-mover Norway’s $1.1 trillion sovereign fund wants to set the example by divesting from companies solely dedicated to oil and gas E&P. Yet make no mistake: oil and gas still overwhelm and supply nearly 65 percent of the world’s energy. As economic growth ensues, demand for these essential commodities grows along with it. For example, since 1990, annual global oil consumption has been rising by an average of 1.2 million b/d, with annual gas use up 6.6 Bcf/d. Fund managers understand this, of course, and they are obligated to return maximum performance and portfolio flexibility for their clients. This is why most university endowment boards have essentially just been giving lip service to divestment protestors.The oil and gas sector is a critical component of the world’s financial markets. It is way too big and diverse for major institutional investors to not incorporate.
Billionaires Are Licking Their Chops Over Distressed U.S. Oil And Gas Assets - Like the vultures Elizabeth Warren claims they are, billionaires are now circling over the soon-to-be dead corpses of companies in the U.S. oil and gas patch, as they look to pick up assets on the cheap. This comes at the same time that the volatility (read: decimation) of the oil and gas industry has scared off many other investors, according to Bloomberg. Names like Sam Zell, Tom Barrack Jr., and Jerry Jones are all being tossed around as investors who are looking at distressed assets. Zell has teamed up with Barrack Jr. to look at oil assets in California, Colorado and Texas. Jones' company, Comstock Resources, is looking to acquire natural gas assets from Chesapeake Energy. Companies are eager to sell at cheap prices to try and get ahead of an upcoming credit crunch. Zell said on Bloomberg yesterday: “I compared it recently to the real estate industry in the early 1990s, where you had empty buildings all over the place, and nobody had cash to play. That’s very much what we’re seeing today."The U.S. has become the world's largest oil producer due to the shale revolution, but the investors behind that drive have little to show for their efforts. Many companies have plowed through their cash while providing poor returns, as independent oil and gas drillers are down more than 40% since 2014. Easy money enabled the boom, and we have noted here on Zero Hedge over the last several years how poor resource allocation, crowded wells and overly optimistic estimates have caused a turn for the worse for U.S. oil and gas investors. Now, its time to face the consequences.
US oil, gas rig count up 1 ahead of holiday season start | S&P Global Platts — The US oil and gas rig count grew by one this week to 870, marking the first week-on-week gain in a month, according to consultants Enverus, as upstream activity cranked into a final wave ahead of the month-long holiday season. Oil-directed rigs moved up two to 703, while natural gas-oriented rigs stayed level week on week at 165. The number of rigs classified as neither oil nor gas dropped by one. Industry has laid down more than 365 rigs during the past 53 weeks since the recent peak of 1,237 in mid-November 2018, as WTI crude oil prices retreated from the mid-$70s/b in early Q3 2018. This month, WTI has mostly stayed in the $56/b to $57/b range. Of those rig losses, 126 were released in Q3 and 61 rigs have left the field so far in Q4, compared to just 41 in Q2 and 47 in Q1. "Our public customers spent about 54% of their budgets during the first half of the calendar year and released rigs on a net basis in calendar Q3," said Mark Smith, chief financial officer for driller Helmerich & Payne, on the company's Q3 call last Friday. Click here for full-size image Oil prices have fallen this week, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics: WTI averaged $56.77/b, down 26 cents; WTI Midland averaged $57.84/b, down 35 cents; and the Bakken Composite price averaged $52.04/b, down 68 cents. Gas price movements were mixed, as Henry Hub gas price averaged $2.57/MMBtu, down 17 cents, and Dominion South averaged $2.23/MMBtu, up 2 cents. H&P's Smith said a recent sampling of his company's customers suggests their capital budgets will decrease next year from 2019 levels. Also, the driller's own budgeting assumes calendar year 2020 activity levels that are "relatively flat" with second-half 2019, Smith added.
99 Oil Rigs Gone And Counting- Rig Count Falls Again - The US oil and gas rig count continued to fall this week, according to Baker Hughes, falling another 3 rigs for the week, according to Baker Hughes. For oil rigs, this week marks the twelfth decrease out of the last fourteen weeks, falling 99 rigs in that timeframe.The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 803, or 276 down from this time last year.The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 3 according to the report, reaching 671. The number of active gas rigs stayed at 129 for the second week. The last time oil rigs were this low was in March of 2017.By state, Texas has seen a drop of 126 year on year, while Oklahoma sunk by 92 to hit 52 rigs.Even though the number of oil rigs have declined by 206 this year alone, production has grown from 11.7 million bpd at the beginning of the year to an all-time high of 12.8 million bpd for the second week in a row.Oil prices were down on Friday ahead of the data, with WTI at 11:51am at $57.76 per barrel (-$0.82), which is absolutely flat from last week. Brent was trading down at $63.29 (-$0.68), which is also nearly flat week over week.Canada’s overall rig count increased this week, with oil and gas rigs gaining 3, after last week’s 6-rig decrease. Oil and gas rigs in Canada now stand at 137, down 67 year on year.
Baker Hughes partners with Silicon Valley to boost AI in the oil field - Oilfield service company Baker Hughes has entered into a three-way agreement and partnership to boost the adoption of artificial intelligence technology in the oil and natural gas industry. Baker Hughes, tech giant Microsoft and Silicon Valley artificial intelligence company C3:ai have signed an agreement to work together to develop and deploy the cost-cutting technology for industry customers across the globe, the companies announced on Tuesday morning. “Companies that adopt this technology will be the next Amazon and those that don’t adopt will be the next Sears,” C3.ai founder and CEO Tom Siebel told the Houston Chronicle. The agreement comes less than six months after Baker Hughes and C3:ai launched a joint venture to deploy artificial intelligence in the oil patch. The two will now be augmenting the technology they developed using Microsoft’s cloud computing platform Azure. Seeking to get ahead of the coming digital transformation in the oil and natural gas industry, Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said artificial intelligence will make the oil field safer and more reliable. The partnership between the three companies, he said, allows each company to focus on their individual areas of expertise. “It’s very tough for an industrial company to be a software company and it’s very tough for a software company to have the domain experience of an industrial company, and it’s very tough to be at the cutting edge of artificial intelligence,” Simonelli said.
Court upholds class-action status for quake lawsuit -- The Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals has upheld the class-action designation of a lawsuit against an oil company over damage caused by earthquakes near Prague in November 2011, including one of magnitude 5.7.
Wastewater from fracking: Growing disposal challenge or untapped resource? - Chemical & Engineering News - As the fracking industry improves its efficiency by drilling ever-longer horizontal wells, it also increases the amount of water it uses to fracture the rock to release the gas. The fracturing process uses on average about 45 million L of water for a single horizontal well, according to the Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC), a group of state oil and gas regulators and environmental protection agencies. Water pumped into fracking wells doesn’t all stay in the ground. Much of it comes back up along with extracted gas. The water that comes up has a much different chemistry than the water that goes down. Produced water typically includes salts from dissolution of the underlying rock, naturally occurring radioactive substances, and chemicals added during the drilling and fracking process. It is unclear exactly how much produced water the fracking industry generates. It is also difficult to characterize the chemical composition of produced water because many of the chemicals used by the fracking industry are proprietary, and the geology of natural gas formations varies widely across the US. The GWPC estimates that the US oil and gas industry generates approximately 3,400 billion L of produced water each year. The US Environmental Protection Agency predicts that volumes of produced water from the fracking industry will continue to increase as natural gas production rises. The EPA currently prohibits the discharge of produced water to surface waters and municipal wastewater treatment plants, with one exception. Companies may discharge produced water west of the 98th meridian—which runs through eastern North Dakota down through eastern Texas—if the water quality is good enough for agriculture or wildlife and is actually used for such purposes. It is unclear, however, what “good enough” means. Most produced water is disposed of by injecting it into deep underground wells, but the geology in some parts of the US is not amenable to such practices, and concerns about inducing seismic activity have the industry looking for alternatives. The EPA is considering changing its policy to give the fracking industry more options to discharge produced water. The agency released a draft document in May summarizing practices used by oil and gas companies to manage produced water. One of the biggest concerns is the lack of data on the chemical composition of produced water.
Spire gas company overcharged customers, court rules; company cancels earnings call - The St. Louis-based natural gas company Spire canceled its Wednesday earnings call, sending its stock tumbling, after a state appeals court ruled that the company improperly collected at least $4 million from ratepayers. The Missouri Western District Court of Appeals ruled on Tuesday that Spire collected unjustified surcharges tied to pipeline replacement efforts — including for relatively new plastic pipes that "are not worn out or in a deteriorated condition," the ruling said. The court ordered Spire to refund the money back to customers. Late on Tuesday, Spire announced it was canceling its earnings call to "assess the impact" of the ruling. Spire serves 1.7 million customers across Missouri, Mississippi and Alabama, touts itself as the country's fifth-largest publicly traded natural gas company and boasts an enterprise value of $6 billion.
U.S. Suspends More Oil and Gas Leases Over What Could Be a Widespread Problem --The Trump administration's relentless push to expand fossil fuel production on federal lands is hitting a new snag: its own refusal to consider the climate impacts of development.The federal Bureau of Land Management's Utah office in September voluntarily suspended 130 oil and gas leases after advocacy groups sued, arguing that BLM hadn't adequately assessed the greenhouse gas emissions associated with drilling and extraction on those leases as required by law.The move was unusual because BLM suspended the leases on its own, without waiting for a court to rule.Some environmental advocates say it could indicate a larger problem for the bureau. "It is potentially a BLM-wide issue," said Jayni Hein, natural resources director at the Institute for Policy Integrity at NYU School of Law, which has been involved in similar litigation in other states. "It could have the effect of suspending even more leases across the West, and not just for oil and gas, for coal as well."Officials in Utah had already pulled back several other lease sales earlier this year. In effect, BLM appears to be trying to get ahead of potential court rulings, advocates say. A series of court rulings have established that BLM must conduct a thorough analysis of the climate impacts of drilling before it allows development in order to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).In the latest ruling, a federal district court in Washington, D.C., in March ordered the bureau to redo its environmental analysis for a slate of leases in Wyoming to better assess climate impacts. In response, BLM suspended the Wyoming leases, as well as leases in Utah and Colorado that were included in the lawsuit but not directly addressed by the ruling. The new Utah suspensions cover a different set of leases, including many sold last year. In letters sent in September to energy companies that had bought the leases, BLM said it was suspending them "based on the parallels" between the lawsuit over them and the case that resulted in the March ruling in Washington, D.C. All told, nearly 1 million acres may now be suspended across the West, said Rebecca Fischer, an attorney with WildEarth Guardians, which filed the lawsuit in the Washington, D.C., circuit, including more than 460,000 acres covered by that lawsuit and some 300,000 acres that Utah's BLM office has suspended since the March ruling.
The Energy 202: This funny-looking bird is slowing down Trump's plans for oil development out West - The Washington Post - A strange-looking bird is standing between the Trump administration's plans to sell more land for oil and gas drilling. More than a third of a million acres of land scheduled to be leased in Nevada and Colorado have been taken off the auctioning block -- at least for now -- because this chickenlike creature is squatting over those oil deposits. It's the latest example of how the Trump administration's efforts to open up more of U.S. land and waters to energy development have been stalled by the greater sage grouse. A federal court threw a wrench into the Trump administration's latest plans. With a rule issued earlier this year, it sought to change the 2015 policy put in place under President Obama to protect the ground-nesting bird, known for its eccentric courtship dances, throughout the 11 Western states it resides. But last month, a federal court in Boise, Idaho issued a preliminary injunction: U.S District Judge Lynn Winmill said federal scientists need to do more analysis about how the bird may be further imperiled. That means that for now, the Obama administration plan is in effect in Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California and Oregon — seven of the 11 states with ever-scarcer sage grouse populations. Now we’re seeing the results of that ruling: The Bureau of Land Management's Nevada office halted December's scheduled sale of 332,000 acres after seeing that more than half encroach too much into sage grouse habitat. The agency’s Colorado office came to the same conclusion last week, pulling about another 4,300 acres from auction in the northwest corner of that state, including some near the Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge. “It seems to me that the Trump administration is overreaching in its ‘energy dominance’ agenda in its zeal to develop inside the sage grouse habitat,” said Erik Molvar, executive director of the Western Watersheds Project, one of several environmental groups that sued to stop the sage grouse plan. But a representative from the oil and gas industry says it is confident the parcels will be back on the auction once the case is resolved. “I’m not terribly worried,” said Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Western Energy Alliance. “It’s just about complying with the ruling.”
Keystone Spill Has Affected Nearly 10x More Land Than Was Estimated -A spill at the Keystone Pipeline that began last month has affected nearly 10 times the amount of land than previously thought, state officials said Monday. The AP reported that regulators have revised their estimates of the spill to approximately 209,100 square feet of land affected. The pipeline's owner, TransCanada, says it has recovered more than 141,000 gallons of oily water. The spill, which is the second major spill from Keystone in a decade, has raised alarm over the past few weeks among residents of Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska living along the proposed route for theKeystone XL project. "We've been doing this for 10 years, and we've watched spills along the way for 10 years, so it's no surprise to us," Nebraskan Jeanne Crumly, who is an affected landowner for the Keystone XL proposed path, told NPR. "So the question isn't if it will spill, the question is, 'Where?' And when it does, are we protected?" As reported by the AP: Crude began flowing through the $5.2 billion pipeline in 2011. It's designed to carry crude oil across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri on the way to refineries in Patoka, Illinois and Cushing, Oklahoma. It can handle about 23 million gallons (87 million liters) daily. It is part of a system that also is to include the proposed $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline designed to transport the oil from western Canada to terminals on the Gulf Coast.The proposed Keystone XL pipeline has drawn opposition from people who fear it will cause environmental damage. For Land affected: AP. Residents: NPR
Top House Democrats Urge GAO to Conduct Review After Third Major Keystone Pipeline Spill | Democrats, Energy and Commerce Committee – Today, Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Peter DeFazio (D-OR), Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ), Chairman of the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Dan Lipinski (D-IL), and Chairman of the Subcommittee on Energy Bobby L. Rush (D-IL) officially requested the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) conduct a review of the operator of the Keystone Pipeline System as well as the federal agency that oversees it. The request comes on the heels of a crude oil spill in Edinburg, North Dakota, the third major spill from the pipeline in three years. “The public has a legitimate expectation that the Keystone Pipeline System managed by TC Energy operate safely and without repeated incidents that damage the environment and threaten the public’s health and security. Yet we are faced with the third occurrence of a significant pipeline leak that has devastating impacts to the both the environment and nearby communities. The frequency and severity of these incidents on the Keystone Pipeline System raises serious questions about both the integrity management program of TC Energy and whether adequate oversight and operating conditions have been put in place by PHMSA to ensure the safe operation of this high-pressure system. This is particularly concerning as TC Energy continues to pursue additional build-out of the Keystone Pipeline System with the Keystone XL Pipeline,” the Members wrote. On October 30, 2019, TC Energy notified the National Response Center of a crude oil spill from its Keystone Pipeline System. With this spill, the pipeline leaked an estimated 383,040 gallons. To date, the three major reported spills have released an estimated 609,840 gallons, endangering nearby wetlands and groundwater resources and leaving possibly irreversible damage in its wake. The Chairmen are requesting GAO complete a comprehensive review to examine whether TC Energy is in compliance with all of its special permitting requirements, as well as assessing if the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) is exercising proper oversight of this pipeline. A full copy of the letter can be found here and below.
ONEOK Bringing Additional Natural Gas Processing Capacity On Line For North Dakota -- November 16, 2019 -- By January 2020, ONEOK Corporation will have constructed enough natural gas processing capacity that it will be able to handle nearly half of North Dakota's total production. The state topped 3 billion cubic of natural gas production per day in August, but ONEOK will soon have the capacity to process 1.4 BCF per day.Dick Vande Bossche, VP for Commercial Gas Supply with ONEOK Rockies Midstream, told members of the legislature's interim Energy Development and Transmission Committee this week that the company brought in service in October its Demicks Lake I plant in McKenzie County. The plant has the capacity to process 200 million cubic feet of gas per day.Vande Bossche said ONEOK is also on schedule to bring Demicks Lake II, a second plant capable of processing 200 MMcf/d, in service sometime in January 2020.A third plant - Bear Creek II with 200 MMcf/d capacity - is under construction in Dunn County and will be in service the first quarter of 2021.And Vande Bossche also told legislators that ONEOK has plans for yet another 200 MMcf/d capacity on the drawing board. "We filed certification with the PSC for another 200 million per day processing plant in McKenzie County, so that's working its way through the approval processes," Vande Bossche said. "We have interim funding to do some long lead item purchases as it relates to that 200 million a day processing facility."He said final execution of plans for the additional gas processing plant are contingent on board approval of the project. ONEOK is also nearing completion of its Elk Creek Pipeline that will move up to 240,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids to processing facilities in Kansas and points south. It's expected to be fully operational by the end of 2019.
From The Saudis: A Technical Analysis Of The Bakken -- November 16, 2019 - Bruce Oksol - A reader sent this comment and the link to this peer-reviewed technical article: This says a lot what they are thinking in the Kingdom: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201908.0195/v1/download In a way some of the most interesting [data/conclusions] I ever have read about the Bakken system. And this is freaking great to see that that they have a fine forecast, but missing the goal. And you have a map of the core area in the middle Bakken and Three Forks. I nearly agree about that part. But my initial thoughts are that they think there will only be 8 wells in a spacing unit and no mention of the famous halo effect. But anyway its so great to see what the Kingdom thinks. And they will be surprised. . I was going to go through the article and make comments as I went along, but a) too technical for me; 2) the authors are experts (and I'm not); 3) the authors have access to databases, computer programs, and statistical analysis I cannot possibly do. The reader is correct: the authors assume a maximum of eight wells in each 1280-acre drilling unit. Perhaps that is accurate as an average across the entire Bakken but my hunch is that there will be a minimum of four wells in each 1280-acre unit in non-core North Dakota Bakken, but upwards of 12 to 24 wells in the core Bakken.
North Dakota September oil output falls to 1.44 million b/d: state agency — North Dakota's oil output fell to 1.44 million b/d in September, down about 37,000 b/d from August's record-setting average, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority reported Tuesday. In an interview with the PlattsCapitol Crude podcast Monday, Lynn Helms, the state's top oil and natural gas regulator, said oil output in September fell due to heavy precipitation throughout the month. "It was a very soggy month," Helms told reporters on a Tuesday conference call. Helms said on the call that two weeks of continuous rain in September caused numerous road closures, preventing pipeline construction, well completions, repairs and multiple other actions. Helms said heavy rain had caused as much as 84,000 b/d of September production to be shut-in. Oil production would likely return to record-setting levels into early 2020, but added that production growth would likely be stalled, potentially for years, as state officials ramped up enforcement of flaring restrictions, he said on the call. Statewide gas production averaged nearly 2.95 Bcf/d in September, down from about 3.01 Bcf/d in August, which was a record, the pipeline authority said Tuesday. An estimated 17% of gas was flared in September, down from 19% in August, according to the authority. The state permitted the drilling of 92 wells in September, down from 127 in August. The state permitted 126 in October, according to the state Department of Mineral Resources. The state's rig count has steadily fallen, however, from 62 in August to 61 in September and 49 in October, according to the agency. North Dakota's rig count was 55 on Tuesday.
North Dakota’s record oil growth to be upended by flaring rules – podcast -- On today's Platts Capitol Crude, Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, says Bakken oil output will continue to break records into 2020, but enforcement of gas capture rules will hinder growth, potentially for years. Helms, North Dakota's top oil and gas regulator, talks about why state regulators can no longer allow operators to exceed flaring limits and what is preventing growth of gas capture capacity in the state. Sami Yahya, a senior energy analyst with S&P Global Platts Analytics, also stops by to talk about the path forward for Bakken output, breakeven prices, the state of well efficiency in North Dakota and why flaring rules will be a major challenge for the shale play.
Crude oil spilled during transfer of 5 million gallons of oil in Washington state - The Washington Department of Ecology said that cleanup of a small crude oil spill in Fidalgo Bay finished early Sunday. "There were no impacts to the shoreline or wildlife," department spokeswoman Cheryl Ann Bishop said in an email. The spill happened Friday night when a Crowley Maritime barge was transferring 5 million gallons of oil to the Shell Puget Sound Refinery. The agency tweeted earlier Saturday that it and the US Coast Guard were responding. Approximately 20 gallons of oil were spilled but only 5 gallons reached the water and that oil was within an area that was boomed before the oil transfer started. The Department of Ecology reported the crude oil sheen on the water covered an area approximately 225 feet by 30 feet. The department said the cleanup was complete at 8:30 a.m. on Sunday. A state law that requires deploying a boom before an oil transfer over water was "in part" the reason why damage was limited and the clean-up so quick, Bishop said. A containment boom was in place and "responders are actively working to recover the spilled material," Shell Puget Sound Refinery said in a news release posted on its website earlier Saturday.
Oil Spill Prevention Law Helps Contain Leak at Shell Puget Sound Refinery - - The Washington Department of Ecology responded to an oil spill that took place Friday night when a Crowley Maritime Barge was transferring five million gallons of oil to the Shell Puget Sound Refinery,CNN reported. Around 20 gallons spilled, of which five entered the water, and that oil was contained within an area that was boomed before the transfer began. The cleanup was completed by 8:30 a.m. Sunday, the department said."There were no impacts to the shoreline or wildlife," department spokeswoman Cheryl Ann Bishop told CNN in an email.The spill occurred at around 11:45 p.m. in Anacortes, Washington, according to the department. The barge was transferring an Alaska North Slope crude-oil blend at the end of a pier that extends into Fidalgo Bay when crew members saw oil spilling from the barge, The Seattle Times reported. An oil sheen was visible on the water inside the containment boom, which covered an area of 225 by 30 feet, roughly the size of a tennis court. Washington state law requires that containment booms be put in place before transferring oil over water as a preventative measure, and Bishop told CNN that the law was one reason the spill was so successfully contained and cleaned.
No new California fracking without scientific review, governor says — In a victory for critics of California’s oil drilling industry, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday stopped the approval of new hydraulic fracturing in the state until the permits for those projects can be reviewed by an independent panel of scientists. Newsom also imposed a moratorium on new permits for steam-injected oil drilling in California, another extraction method opposed by environmentalists that was linked to a massive petroleum spill in Kern County over the summer. “These are necessary steps to strengthen oversight of oil and gas extraction as we phase out our dependence on fossil fuels and focus on clean energy sources,” Newsom said in a statement released Tuesday morning. “This transition cannot happen overnight; it must advance in a deliberate way to protect people, our environment, and our economy.” Along with halting the oil extraction methods, the Newsom administration plans to study the possible adoption of buffer zones around oil wells in or near residential neighborhoods, schools, hospitals and other facilities that could be exposed to hazardous fumes. The actions come just weeks after Newsom signed a new law revising the primary mission of a state agency that regulates the oil industry, now called the Geologic Energy Management Division, to include protecting public health and safety and environmental quality. Since taking office, Newsom has faced pressure from politically influential environmental groups to ban new oil and gas drilling and completely phase out fossil fuel extraction in California, one of the nation’s top petroleum-producing states. The Democratic governor pushed back on that pressure, however, promising to take a more measured approach that addressed the effects on oil workers and California cities and counties that are economically dependent on the petroleum industry.
Fracking Under Fire In California - California Governor Gavin Newsom just dealt a blow to the oil industry, placing atemporary moratorium on new fracking permits in the state until scientists complete an independent review of the practice.The action also included a temporary prohibition on new permits for steam-injected oil drilling, which comes in the wake of a major oil spill at a Chevron-operated site in Kern County earlier this year. The site leaked more than 1.3 million gallons of oil and water. Gov. Newsom also linked the actions to a broader shift away from oil in general. “These are necessary steps to strengthen oversight of oil and gas extraction as we phase out our dependence on fossil fuels and focus on clean energy sources,” Newsom said in a statement on Tuesday. “This transition cannot happen overnight; it must advance in a deliberate way to protect people, our environment, and our economy.”The moratorium on steam-injected drilling will remain in place until the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratory study the process. “These oil leaks cannot be the cost of doing business,” California Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot said, according to the AP. “There needs to be a clear trajectory to eliminate them. Not reduce them in number, but fully eliminate them.”Importantly, in October, Newsom singed a law that renames the state agency that oversees the industry while also tweaking its mission. The Division of Oil, Gas, and Geothermal Resources will be known as the Geologic Energy Management Division in January, and its mission will include a focus on protecting public health, safety and the environment.Gov. Newsom came under pressure a few months ago when the Desert Sunreported that fracking permits had doubled in the first half of 2019, apparently without Newsom’s knowledge. The revelation led the governor to fire the oil regulator.Interestingly, however, Gov. Newsom said at the time that he did not think that he had the a uthority to place a moratorium on fracking, something that environmental groups have long demanded. The latest actions only affect permits for new projects. According to the AP, there are 263 pending permits on the desk of regulators, but none of them have been approved since July when the top official was removed.
California Drilling Ban Is Fueled By Indifference - It would be understandable if your first reaction to news that California’s governor has slapped restrictions on fracking was: They frack in California?California actually ranks seventh in terms of state oil output, just behind Alaska.(1) Yet California is usually noted more for its thirst for the stuff, with its legions of drivers consuming more gasoline than in any other state. In terms of production, you’re more likely to associate California with barrels of Cabernet than crude.Which goes a long way to explaining why Governor Gavin Newsom made his move. Newsom hasn’t banned fracking in California — indeed, he says he isn’t empowered to do that unilaterally. Rather, in response to oil spills in Kern County, he has ordered regulators to assess the safety of a different technique for stimulating wells, called cyclic steam-flooding, use of which has surged in California. However, he has also taken the opportunity to order that new permits for fracking be subject to scientific review and that the whole permitting process undergo an audit by the state’s Department of Finance. Phrases like “subject to review” and “undergo an audit” are most unwelcome in the planning departments of oil producers. Few things undercut the value of a project quite like time or uncertainty. So anything that delays drilling outright or puts enough doubt in the mind of the operator (or their financiers) about the viability of doing so effectively does one thing: raise the cost of capital. Exhibit A is what Newsom’s announcement on Tuesday did to the stock of California Resources Corp: There’s a similar dynamic at play in Colorado. Last November, the state’s voters rejected a ballot measure that, again, wouldn’t have banned fracking outright but would have instituted minimum distances between buildings and wells that would have severely curtailed fracking anyway. Yet even though proposition 112 failed to pass, the state announced last month it would impose additional scrutiny on wells drilled within 2,000 feet of homes anyway, in response to a study finding heightened risk of benzene exposure within that distance. Hence, stocks of Colorado-exposed drillers remain under pressure:
Why is California approving so many new oil wells? - As Donald Trump’s administration pushes to expand oil extraction in California, the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, has signed bill after bill limiting the practice. In October, new laws banned federal oil extraction on state lands, removed the terms “oil” and “gas” from the name of the state’s department of energy, and expanded its mandate to include public health and safety. “California is a leader in the fight to transition away from fossil fuels,” Newsom said in a statement. “These bills put intentions into action … and fight against the Trump administration’s efforts to expand oil extraction in California.” But since taking office in January, Newsom’s own department of energy management has approved 33 percent more new oil and gas drilling permits than were approved under Newsom’s predecessor Jerry Brown over the same period in 2018—a median of 174 permits to drill new oil, gas, and cyclic steam wells approved a month, based on Geologic Energy Management Division (CALGEM) reports analyzed by CityLab. The rate of fracking permits approved also soared at the start of the year, up 109 percent through June. The fact that fracking approvals in California had spiked in the new year was first reported in July by the FracTracker Alliance and Consumer Watchdog. Newsom responded quickly to the news, firing the head of the approving agency for employing regulators who owned stock in oil companies, and directing the department to stop approving fracking permits. Since June 28, California hasn’t cleared any new hydraulic fracturing projects. Even with the cut-off of fracking approvals, California is still on track to end the year with a higher rate of oil and gas-related drilling permits overall. Still, permitting doesn’t correlate to actual oil extraction, experts note: the production of crude oil across California has steadily dropped since 1985, falling more than 50 percent by 2017 and bringing the state from the third-highest producer to the sixth.
US agency to consider expanded drilling in Alaska reserve (AP) — The Trump administration will consider a new management plan and expanded oil drilling for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, an Indiana-size area that former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar characterized as an “iconic place on our Earth.” The Bureau of Land Management announced Thursday it will take public comment through Jan. 21 on four alternatives for the reserve in northern Alaska. Two alternatives could allow lease sales on lands previously designated as special conservation areas under the Obama administration. The goal of a new management plan is increased energy production and greater energy security for the nation, BLM Alaska director Chad Padgett said. The reserve is home to two caribou herds and provides ecologically significant wetlands used for breeding by migratory waterfowl from around the world. Its entire coastline is habitat for threatened polar bears. Kristen Miller, conservation director at Alaska Wilderness League, said the Interior Department spent years working on the plan with tribal and local governments, conservation organizations, the state of Alaska and others. “Abandoning this science-based, common sense approach in favor of oil and gas interests is recklessly short-sighted and will place at risk local indigenous communities and the region’s diverse wildlife that rely on this vital piece of our nation’s public lands,” she said.
Russia's Putin says shale oil technologies are 'barbaric' - Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharply criticized nations like the U.S. for ignoring the environmental impact of shale oil and gas production, describing it as a “barbaric” process that the Kremlin has no interest in pursuing.Speaking at a business conference in Moscow Wednesday, Putin said: “Today’s technology of shale oil production and shale gas are without any doubt … barbaric.”“These technologies destroy the environment,” he explained via a translation, before adding that the areas affected by the extraction process were typically left in a “precarious situation.”“In spite of all of the economic benefits, we do not need it and we will never do this,” Putin said. The U.S. Department of Energy was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC on Wednesday. Output increases in the Permian Basin of Texas, as well as other major formations, have helped the U.S. become the world’s largest producer of oil.
Vigilante Offers $100,000 Bounty To Hack Oil & Gas Companies - One of the world’s most influential hackers is offering up to US$100,000 in cryptocurrency to hackers who break into oil firms and banks to leak information of public interest. According to a new manifesto, “Hacktivist Bug Hunting Program,” the well-known vigilante hacker would pay other hackers if they hack companies and leak documents that could be of public interest. Oil services giant Halliburton—alongside South African mining companies and an Israeli spyware vendor—are among the examples the hacktivist has mentioned as potential targets in their manifesto.“Hacking to obtain and leak documents with public interest is one of the best ways for hackers to use their abilities to benefit society,” Motherboard quoted the manifesto as saying.“I’m not trying to make anyone rich. I’m just trying to provide enough funds so that hackers can make a decent living doing a good job,” the hacktivist says. Hacktivism is a powerful tool to “fight inequality and capitalism,” according to the hacktivist who goes by the nickname Phineas Fisher.Companies and software developers themselves often launch the so-called ‘bug bounty programs’, rewarding hackers for uncovering potential bugs and vulnerabilities on their systems, in order to bolster their cyber security against attacks, hacks, or leaks.Just last week, Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex was hit by a ransomware attack, which caused administrative operations at the company to grind to a halt, but work was restored soon after.The incident highlighted once again the growing importance of cybersecurity in the oil and gas industry and all its critical infrastructure across the globe. Pemex has no intention of paying the ransom that cyber attackers have requested, Mexico’s Energy Minister and Pemex board chair Rocio Nahle said a day later. The attackers had demanded they be paid US$5 million in ransom in bitcoin, according to various media reports last week.
Traders say crude prices stable as Canada's largest operator goes on strike | S&P Global Platts — The differential for Western Canada's benchmark heavy crude has remained stable following news that workers at Canada's largest rail operator went on strike Tuesday, potentially disrupting crude flows to the US Midwest and the US Gulf Coast as negotiations continue. More than 3,000 Canadian National Railway, or CN, workers went on strike after midnight Tuesday, according to their union, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. CN carries the bulk of Western Canada's crude-by-rail exports, which reached 310,146 b/d in August, according to latest data from the National Energy Board. Alberta's Minister of Energy Sonya Savage said Tuesday CN ships more than 170,000 b/d of crude from the province. "We are disappointed that the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference has initiated strike action," CN said in a statement Tuesday to S&P Global Platts. "We will return to the negotiating table today, with the assistance of federal mediators." A Calgary-based trader said Tuesday morning that there had been "absolutely nothing" to indicate differentials for Western Canadian Select, the benchmark heavy crude, had reacted to the CN strike. "It just depends on how long the strike goes for," the trader said. "It's logical to expect some kind of weakness."
The Five Biggest Enemies Of Oil & Gas - The oil and gas industry used to be untouchable. It’s not anymore. Enemies have surrounded it in a pincer movement, and now, it’s all-out war. From public sentiment to government meddling, we’ve outlined the five most ruthless adversaries the global industry faces today in a war in which it just might be its own worst enemy.
- Enemy #1: The Oil and Gas Industry. Being one’s own worst enemy may sound cliché, but in this case it is particularly apt. The oil and gas industry has done a pretty good job of making itself out to be the bad guy. It has not performed its environmental duties admirably. Exxon, BP, Enbridge--all responsible for tarnishing the public perception for the industry at large. And we don’t even need to point out why. No one can forget. We doubt if in hindsight, any of those responsible for sizeable environmental disasters would have made identical choices, but the fact remains, the environmental disasters that a handful of companies have perpetrated will likely be remembered forever. Is it even possible to rebrand?
- Enemy #2: If It Weren’t For Those Meddling Kids! Millennials are changing the world, and the oil and gas industry will be profoundly affected by this generation. Millennials are waging a silent war against all things dirty, against all things unshareable, against all things morally reprehensible, and on all things that fail to live up to some unrealistic ideal. This generation has the power to bring about positive change, but if you’re the oil industry, look out, because the millennials are coming for you, and the generation behind them is even more passionate about sending you to your grave.
- Enemy #3: The Rise of the Electric Vehicle, We’re not talking about Teslas. No, it’s much bigger than that. Tesla is the spark, but big auto--and all their big bucks--will be the sonic boom that follows. The transportation sector in the United States accounts for 69% of all petroleum consumed in this country--and as the transportation sector goes, so goes the oil sector.
- Enemy #4: Government Ineptitude. The number of governments that have worked against their own oil industry is staggering--and shameful given the industry’s potential for single-handedly financially supporting entire countries. Recent examples include Brazil’s failed oil auctions; Libya’s prolonged instability; Canada’s utter flop with critical pipeline projects and its impotence in decisively quashing oil-related spats between Alberta and BC; South Sudan’s stubborn refusal to agree on anything except civil war; Venezuela’s corruption, refusal to spend money to keep its industry going, the citizens’ inability or refusal to oust Maduro, and heavy borrowing from China and Russia; Mexico’s failure to recruit foreign talent to exploit its deepwater oil riches and its push to undo promising oil deals with foreign oil companies, Angola’s use of its oil industry as a personal piggy bank, Algeria’s political uncertainty--the list is so extensive that it’s impossible to complete. Still, this short version highlights sufficiently just how dangerous governments can be to their own oil and gas industries.
- Enemy #5: Hollywood A-Listers. Hollywood actors and actresses have propelled climate issues into the latest cause célèbre--from anti-oil pipeline causes to anti-Exxon ones, and from the Paris Accords to clean living. Hollywood’s A-listers never miss an opportunity to get arrested for the cause, often conveniently in front of a camera. (Especially the older ones who need a career boost). These A-listers have a following, for sure, and so some of their passion for the environment leeches over into their specific fan base. But thankfully for the oil and gas industry, these A-listers have failed for the most part to project this anti-oil agenda onto the big screen for the masses to consume.
Why Tesla doesn't scare the fracking industry - Midland, Texas, home of the boom in US oil and natural gas production, is more than 300 miles from the nearest Tesla store, but it feels even farther away: The projected growth in electric vehicle sales doesn't worry industry leaders."We use about 100 million barrels of oil in the world a day," said Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, one of the largest players in the oil and gas field known as the Permian Basin. "Roughly 25 million of that is used for gasoline automobiles. If we convert all 25 million barrels a day overnight to electric vehicles, we're still going to need a lot of hydrocarbons."By 2040 more than half of new car sales will be electric vehicles, according to forecasts. But it will take a much longer time before they make up half of cars on the road, as gasoline powered cars slowly wear out and are scrapped. Much of the world's expanding population is in parts of the world where electric vehicles will have trouble taking hold, Sheffield said. "In Africa, where a lot of that growth is, they can't go immediately to electric vehicles. They just don't have the infrastructure. It will take a long time for EVs to replace the gasoline engine in my opinion," he said. Beyond that, much of the electricity that will be used to recharge electric vehicles in the future will come from natural gas being produced by the US industry. "In the Permian, 40% of our production is natural gas," said Sheffield. "Natural gas will continue to capture [electricity generation] market share." Much of the growth of natural gas used to generate electricity is due to fracking, which has driven down the cost of gas. Sheffield's lack of concern about the growth of electric vehicles is echoed by others in the industry. "When folks talk about energy transitions, these are significant shifts that will take a long period of time," said Frank Macchiarola, vice president of downstream and industry operations at the American Petroleum Institute, the trade group for both the oil and natural gas industries. "Based on independent analysis, two things are clear," he said. "One: Natural gas will be a significant source of power generation in the United States. Two: Oil will continue to be used a primary source of transportation fuel," he said.
Supermajor Asset Sale Could Fetch $27B - Oil and gas supermajors are looking to sell assets that could fetch a total of $27.5 billion, according to Rystad Energy’s latest assessment. As part of its latest study, the independent energy research company outlined a number of asset packages on offer from ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Total, Shell and ConocoPhillips. ExxonMobil had the most assets up for grabs out of all the supermajors, according to Rystad Energy. Exxon plans to divest assets worth $15 billion by 2021 as it focuses on developing oilfields in Guyana and the Permian Basin, as well as gas projects in Mozambique and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Rystad Energy highlighted. “The expected transactions mean some of the majors are poised to exit certain regions, giving regional players and independents a chance to buy into key fields and help keep them profitable through production-life extensions and new developments,” Ranjan Saxena, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team, said in a company statement. “While oil and gas majors increase their focus on core areas and divest mature assets and interests in geopolitically unstable regions, observers will be following closely to see how investors react and what other steps these energy giants will take to keep stakeholders interested amid rising climate concerns and geopolitical volatility,” Saxena added. Last month, Rystad Energy revealed that BP and Shell occupied the top spots on opposite ends of the company’s M&A ranking for the oil and gas sector. This ranking highlighted the share of resources traded globally from 2015 through July 2019. According to the analysis, BP had seen the most resource growth from M&A across all supply segments, adding nearly 6.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. On the sell side, Shell topped the list “by a wide margin”, Rystad noted.
Interactive: Not all oil is equal – Presenting the Platts Periodic Table of Oil | S&P Global Platts - Understanding crude quality has never been more important, following the dramatic rise in US shale output, which has transformed the composition of the global oil market.There are hundreds of different grades and varieties produced around the world, from medium-sour Hungo in Angola to Norway's light-sweet Ekofisk and Mexican heavy-sour Maya crude.The Market Insight team at S&P Global Platts has created a "periodic table of oil" cataloguing 120 of the most important grades on international markets.The interactive chart below will for the first time allow readers to find key information in one place on region of origin, price, trade volumes, sulfur content, viscosity and trade flows.Click here to access the interactive Platts Periodic Table of Oil
BC taxpayers subsidized fracking companies to the tune of 1.2 billiion in two years - Fossil fuel companies drilling for gas in B.C. are benefitting from massive provincial subsidies that allow them to reduce the amount of royalties paid to the province, research by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives has found. Companies drilling and fracking for natural gas in northeast B.C. were bankrolled by the province to the tune of $703 million last year, a 45 per cent increase over the previous year when companies were handed more than $485 million in credits. As deep well credits are used to reduce the amount of royalties companies pay to the province when the production process has ended, that means B.C. is increasingly out of pocket even though the amount of gas produced in B.C. has risen more than 70 per cent over the last decade. The total in the deep well credit account now amounts to $2.2 billion. Last year, natural gas royalties flowing into the provincial treasury amounted to $102 million compared to $1.3 billion a decade earlier and, although the decline is partially due to falling market prices for gas, the deep well credits are partially responsible for the shrinking revenues, says Ben Parfitt, CCPA resource policy analyst. “And, with a combined $2.62 billion in credits sitting in the credit account, thanks to the credit program’s 17-year duration, those anemic revenues will be a fixture for years to come,” Parfitt, who is also a contributor to The Narwhal, said. “That’s a huge sum of money and it’s getting bigger each year. It’s high time the province explained why such subsidies are necessary or, if they are not, why they continue,” he said. The ongoing loss of revenue means less available funds for healthcare, education and other public services, said Parfitt, who spearheaded a battle to force the provincial government to release the data, which was being kept a closely guarded secret.
Anti-fracking protesters forcefully removed during dawn raid on private land - A dozen anti-fracking protesters have been forcefully removed from a drill site during a dramatic dawn raid on private land. Specialist eviction officers descended on the site in the early hours of yesterday morning to turf out 12 illegal trespassers. The protesters had set up a number of camps on the land, which is a mile from a site being drilled by oil and gas company Cuadrilla. It is thought some the apprehended individuals were not only protesting, but also living on the private land for the past three years. They are members of anti-fracking group New Hope Resistance, which was set up two years ago to protest against leading shale gas company Cuadrilla. The group’s website says the land which they occupied until yesterday will one day become “the largest gas field in Western Europe”. The government recently announced a moratorium on fracking, until or unless the activity is proven safe.
Venezuela Is Using Invisible Oil Tankers To Skirt Sanctions - U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have been squeezing the life out of its economy in an attempt to remove the government of Nicolas Maduro from power, but so far those sanctions haven’t been entirely successful. The reason: Venezuela is still exporting oil. So far in November, according to OilX data, Venezuela has exported an average of 530,000 bpd, up from 523,000 bpd in October.Bloomberg reports, citing shipping data, that Venezuela had loaded almost 11 million barrels of crude in just the first 11 days of November, which is more than twice as much as it did in the same period last month. Most of the oil seems to have gone to India and China, with half of the vessels transporting it turning their transponders off to avoid detection.This is the now-standard tactic used by Iran to export its oil amid U.S. sanctions, too. Turning off the geolocation device is what Iranian tankers do when they leave port—or in the open sea—and they only turn them off when they approach their port of destination. This and ship-to-ship transfers have helped Tehran continue taking in oil revenues despite the sanctions. These same tactics are being used by Venezuela now as well.Venezuela’s crude oil production in September averaged just 644,000 bpd, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report. That’s down from 727,000 bpd in August and an average 975,000 bpd over the first half of the year. In September 2018, Venezuela was pumping more than twice the October level, at 1.354 million bpd. This goes to show that sanctions are working to curb oil production, but they have not been able to stifle Venezuela’s exports to zero. The country has oil-for-cash agreements with China and Russia, and although it struggles to repay this debt with its limited amount of oil, it is paying down some of it—apparently without violating any sanctions.One vessel Bloomberg’s data detected recently was the Dragon—a Liberian-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier, whose last GPS signal came off the French coast. The tanker, however, turned out to be offshore Venezuela where it loaded 2 million barrels of local crude for Russia’s Rosneft, one of Caracas’s biggest creditors. Both the Russian company and the operator of the Dragon told Bloomberg that they have not violated any sanctions. One way Rosneft is doing this is by selling the oil on and getting paid in fuel. This is how India has been getting some of its Venezuelan oil shipments despite pressure from Washington to cut these imports off completely.
Black tide in Brazil - The oil first appeared on the beaches of Brazil’s Paraiba state at the end of August. Since then, it has surfaced in nine states in the northeast, soiling pristine beaches, reefs, mangroves and wildlife in what is proving to be the country’s worst oil spill. The culprit is still not known, although a Greek-flagged tanker is suspected of causing the catastrophe. To get photos of the disaster, which was affecting areas far from state capitals where most of the press is based, AFP’s Rio de Janeiro bureau found talented local photographers. Here are some of their stories:
- Leonardo Malafaia, Pernambuco: On October 21, I was taking photos on Itapuama beach. I love this beach, it’s where I first learned how to surf. One of the pictures that I took was of a local teenager, Everton Miguel dos Anjos, as he emerged from the black water with an oil-stained plastic trash bag across his chest, his face despondent. His mother owned a food stall on the beach and he had come to help clean it up. When the photo chief in Rio told me that my photo had been appearing all over the world, I couldn’t believe it. It went viral, was chosen as one of the best photos of the week in media both in Brazil and internationally, These beaches are an integral part of our identity and it’s sad to see them soiled. I grew up on this coast, my grandfather was a fisherman here. These beaches are a lifeline for hundreds of people, who will feel the effects of this for years to come. To see this happening is revolting.
- Antonello Veneri, Bahia state - The oil gets everywhere. You try to get it off your body, but you can’t. It clings to your skin, to your equipment, to everything. I have been in the Bahia region for about 10 years. The first images that I took of the spill were with my smartphone on Pituba beach in Salvador, the capital of Bahia state. I concentrated on the work of the volunteers who were helping with the clean-up efforts. For most of the Afro-Brazilian religions, this region is sacred. I have spent so much time here and it breaks my heart to see the beaches and its rocks covered with oil.
- Mateus Morbeck, northern Bahia - It is a horror and a disaster and I found myself cleaning up the beach as I was taking photos. At first, we didn’t know how to get rid of the oil. We didn’t have any protection, no gloves, no masks, nothing. People were trying to do it with their bare hands and some began to faint and vomit. Eventually, we learned to protect ourselves. Now I carry two bags — one with my camera equipment and a drone and another with oil protection equipment. I have a gas mask, gloves and boots. I have a feeling that I’m mopping up ice cream. We don’t know who is the enemy and how long it will continue to attack us. The volunteers created a WhatsApp group to coordinate their efforts and to meet at the place where the oil appears. I have been busy since.
Petrobras on Track to Become Largest Oil Producer - Petrobras is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer among publicly listed companies by 2030. That’s according to Rystad Energy, which outlined that, during the course of 2019, Petrobras has evolved from fifth place to become the third-largest oil producer. “As it stands, Rosneft and PetroChina top the list over the world’s largest public exploration and production companies,” Rystad Energy said in a company statement. “Based on Rystad Energy’s latest forecasts, Petrobras could be poised to overtake PetroChina over the next few months and potentially dethrone the ruling Russian producer Rosneft over the next decade, thanks in no small part to its latest acquisitions,” Rystad Energy added. Petrobras gained nearly full control of more than eight billion barrels of oil in the Buzios field as part of Brazil’s oil auctions in November, the energy research and intelligence company highlighted. “To develop these and other resources off the coast of the South American country, Brazil is set for a whopping $70 billion offshore capital investment spree between 2020 and 2025, solely on field development,” Rystad Energy stated. “This program will have a monumental effect on Petrobras,” Rystad Energy added. Rosneft places second on Rystad Energy’s 2030 oil production table, with ExxonMobil in third. Shell is fourth, BP is fifth, PetroChina is sixth and Chevron and Total occupy the seventh and eighth spots, respectively. According to Rystad Energy, Petrobras has a potential peak output of almost 3.8 million barrels per day.
Asia's Richest Man Breaks into Oil Elite Club -- Reliance Industries Ltd., run by Asia’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, has eclipsed BP Plc to break into an elite club of energy supermajors. The Indian conglomerate is now valued at $138 billion, compared with the British energy giant’s $132 billion value at the close of trading on Tuesday. Reliance’s shares have increased at three times the pace of India’s benchmark index this year after its billionaire owner in August announced plans to cut the company’s net debt to zero in 18 months through measures including a stake sale in the oil-to-chemicals business to Saudi Aramco. The surge in shares gives Ambani a net worth of $56 billion, making him Asia’s richest person, above Alibaba Group’s Jack Ma, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Reliance’s market value briefly surpassed BP for the first time at the end of last month, and it has now regained the lead over the British company after its shares hit a fresh high in Mumbai on Wednesday. It also narrowing the gap with PetroChina Co., currently Asia’s biggest oil firm by value, and is within a whisker of becoming the first Indian company to hit the 10 trillion rupee market-cap milestone. Reliance has rallied 40% this year, compared with BP’s 1.2% gain as it works on cutting high debt levels. Oil companies have struggled because of swings in crude prices and as uncertainty persists over future energy demand. Reliance, meanwhile, has benefited in a number of ways. It operates the world’s biggest oil-refining complex in western India, which can process low-quality crude and turn it into higher-grade fuels, partly protecting it from volatility in prices.
OPEC's share of Indian oil imports in October hits lowest since 2011 - (Reuters) - OPEC’s share of India’s oil imports fell to 73% in October, its lowest monthly share since at least 2011, tanker data from sources showed, as refiners shipped in fuel from the United States and other suppliers. India, which usually imports about 80% of its needs from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has been diversifying its sources of oil as local refiners have upgraded plants to process cheaper crude grades. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, shipped in 4.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in October, about 3.3% less compared with a year ago, data showed. Of that, it bought 3.43 million bpd from OPEC. OPEC’s share of India’s imports in September was about 81% although total volumes were lower, as the South Asian nation cut imports to a three-year low due to maintenance at some refineries. OPEC oil output dipped to an eight-year low in September after attacks on Saudi oil plants led to production cuts, a Reuters survey showed. The kingdom’s output has since recovered. In October, Iraq replaced Saudi Arabia as India’s top oil supplier, tanker arrival data showed, with refiners cutting purchases of the more expensive Saudi oil. Sources who supplied the data asked not to be named. “Saudi had raised its official selling price (OSP). That led to some buyers migrating to Iraqi and other producers,” said Ehsan Ul Haq, an analyst with Refinitiv. Saudi Arabia raised its October OSP for its Arab Light grade for Asia by $0.60/barrel compared to a $0.35/barrel increase in Iraq’s Basra Light.
Asian Gas Glut Forces Key Buyers To Cancel Orders - A Singaporean buyer of a U.S. cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has canceled the loading, the company told Reuters on Tuesday, as both Asia and Europe are facing an LNG glut as the winter heating season starts to set in.Pavilion Energy, a Singapore-based natural gas importer and trader, has canceled the loading of a U.S. cargo but will still pay for it, industry sources have told Reuters. The company was originally scheduled to load the cargo from the Cameron LNG plant in Louisiana, according to the sources.“Pavilion Energy evaluated scheduling and other commercial matters, then took the decision not to lift the cargo in full coordination with the supplier,” a spokeswoman for the company told Reuters, without providing further details.Some other customers of U.S. LNG cargoes are also reportedly considering paying for those cargoes but not loading them, traders told Reuters.Weak LNG and natural gas prices in Asia and in Europe have weighed on gas importers and traders who find themselves unable to resell the cargoes they have bought because of ample gas inventories and a glut of LNG supply from newly started projects around the world.Storage in Europe is full, as low LNG spot prices amid abundant supply and weaker Asian spot demand have helped Europe to fill its storage tanks to more than average levels this summer.In Asia, milder weather in the world’s top two LNG importers—Japan and China—leads to weaker demand amid ample supply. Last week, Asian LNG spot prices dropped for a fourth consecutive week, with traders telling Reuters that further drops could be expected.
Pipeline Explosion Kills 7, Injures 25 in Bangladesh - At least seven people were killed when a gas pipeline exploded in Bangladesh Sunday, and another 25 were injured, the Associated Press reported. The blast collapsed portions of the boundary wall of a building in the city of Chittagong while residents were getting ready for work in the morning, according to local police chief Mohammed Mohsin."So far we have confirmed about seven dead bodies, including one child, four males, and two females who were severely burned on the spot," Bijoy Boshak, deputy commissioner of the Chottogram Metropolitan Police (North), told Anadolu Agency.The seven who died were all members of one family, Indus News reported. Boshak told Anadolu Agency that the seven who died were rushed to the hospital, where they were pronounced dead on arrival. Among the injured, one suffered burns, and the rest were wounded when the walls collapsed, according to reports from local channel Shomoy TV shared by Anadolu Agency. Boshak said the death toll could rise, since some of the people admitted to the hospital were in critical condition.The gate of a nearby building and a minibus in its garage were also damaged by the blast.Fire service official Amir Hossain told Reuters that the cause of the explosion was not yet known, but was being investigated. "We primarily came to know that due to the gas pipeline blast, a part of a building collapsed," Boshak told Anadolu Agency. The explosion comes one month after seven children died when a gas cylinder used for inflating balloons exploded in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka, Reuters noted. The news agency further pointed out that poorly monitored gas pipelines and cylinders are a frequent cause of accidents in Bangladesh.
ExxonMobil urges Nigeria to end oil sector uncertainty to bolster production | S&P Global Platts - The Nigerian government needs to end the air of uncertainty around the country's oil sector to attract much-needed investment that will bolster production, ExxonMobil said Tuesday. The two critical Nigerian oil sector needs are certainty and business competitiveness, Paul McGrath, chairman and managing director of the ExxonMobil Nigeria producing unit, said during a meeting in Abuja with Nigeria's oil minister, Timipre Sylva, according to an oil ministry statement. "There is nobody who doesn't want to invest in Nigeria," McGrath said. The ExxonMobil executive, who also is chairman of the Oil Producers Trade Section, the umbrella body for oil companies operating in Nigeria, said he hoped the Nigerian oil minister would make these two critical factors priorities. Oil companies have strongly opposed Nigeria's plans to increase taxes on its deepwater oil production after Nigeria amended the fiscal terms for existing production-sharing contracts. That decision came as other producers in the region sweetened their fiscal terms to attract foreign investment to the beleaguered oil sector. Angola recently improved fiscal terms for some oil contracts, giving international oil companies higher returns and opening up offshore and onshore basins. Sylva said the amendment to the production-sharing law was "deemed necessary in recognition of the current realities in the sector."
Turkey And Europe On Collision Course Over Energy Agenda -Turkey’s location has always given it a key geostrategic advantage. Its proximity to the Middle East and the Caspian as well as its position on the Black Sea make it an indispensable member of NATO. In recent years, however, Ankara’s diplomatic relations with its Western allies have cooled. Now, the discovery of major energy deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean are adding to tensions. Cyprus is one of the countries that could benefit significantly from the new-found natural gas wealth. The island nation currently imports all of its energy, but the discovery of gas deposits could improve Cyprus’ energy security while at the same time making it an energy-exporting nation. Nicosia’s fraught relations with its large northern neighbor, however, could hamper the development of its energy sector.The Turkish invasion of 1974 separated the island between an internationally recognized Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus which is only recognized by Turkey. To make matters even more complicated, Nicosia is a member of the EU while Ankara’s membership request is still pending. Turkey wants a share of the newfound energy wealth to go to the Turkish inhabitants of the island. Furthermore, Ankara has sent exploratory vessels to Nicosia’s EEZ which has evoked a sharp rebuke from the EU.Brussels has made its position very clear, stating that Cyprus is an independent nation with widespread international recognition and that Turkey has repeatedly used force to deter energy companies from exploring the island nation’s EEZ.Last week, the foreign ministers of the EU agreed on economic sanctions over Turkey’s actions in Cyprus’ waters. These include asset freezes and travel bans. Also, technical and material support for drilling activities is prohibited. The recent decision follows a previous round under which arms sales were banned following the country’s invasion of Syria.But there is only so much the EU can do when it comes to influencing Ankara’s decision making. Turkey is sheltering approximately 3.5 million displaced persons. The EU is providing financial support to Ankara in exchange for preventing the continuation of the refugees’ journey to Europe. President Erdogan has already threatened to flood Europe with the displaced persons who for several years have called Turkey their "home". According to some Greek officials, Ankara has the capability to immediately “send” 500,000 refugees over into Europe.
Russia Plans To Boost Crude Oil Exports - Russia expects to increase its crude oil exports by around 400,000 bpd-500,000 bpd to more than 5.6 million bpd within five years, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an article in Russian-language magazine Energy Policy. Russia will not only keep its position on the global energy markets, but it expects to be able to boost its crude oil exports by up to 500,000 bpd, the equivalent of 25 million tons as the minister wrote. Russia’s total crude oil exports in five years could grow to 280 million tons, or 5.62 million barrels per day, according to Novak. Russia’s crude oil exports rose by 2.9 percent on the year in 2018, to 260 million tons, or 5.22 million bpd, according to the TASS news agency.Russia exports a large part of its crude oil production, mainly to Europe, although China has emerged as a big buyer of Russian crude in recent years as Beijing’s oil demand continues to grow. China is the biggest buyer of Russian oil outside Europe, while Russia became the largest supplier of crude to China in 2016, surpassing Saudi Arabia for the first time on an annual basis, EIA estimates show.For two years after 2016, Russia was the single biggest supplier of crude oil to China, but Saudi Arabia has recently regained its number-one supplier status to China. In September, Saudi Arabia kept its number-one supplier spot, ahead of Russia and Iraq.
Oil price will have a 'significant influence' on Russia's growth story, wealth fund chief says -Oil prices will have a major impact on the direction that the Russian economy will take, according to the chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), but the country’s alliance with major oil producer group OPEC (known as OPEC+) is “ready to act” if necessary, he said.“We’re quite optimistic about the Russian market going forward. We believe the oil price will be a significant influence going forward but due to our agreement with Saudi Arabia we believe that oil prices will be stable and the Russian market (is) poised for continuous growth,” Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund RDIF, told CNBC on the sidelines of the Russia Calling investment forum in Moscow Wednesday.Earlier on Wednesday, Andrey Kostin, the head of Russia’s second largest lender, VTB Bank, told CNBC that the biggest risk to the Russian economy in 2020 would be lower oil prices, which, as a major oil producer and exporter, Russia still relies on despite efforts to diversify its economy. Asked by CNBC’s Dan Murphy if he agreed with this risk outlook, Dmitriev conceded that he did “agree somewhat that if there are trade wars and other shocks, we could have some issues on the demand side.” “But on the supply side we have a great agreement with OPEC+ members that are ready to act whenever there is a demand shock. So I believe oil prices will remain stable and of course trade wars are negative for the economy and can soften demand but OPEC+ will be ready to respond,” he said. As the world’s second largest natural gas producer, and third largest oil producer, Russia has been able to lean on its energy exports as international sanctions have curtailed other parts of its economy. Oil prices have also risen since late 2016 in no small part due to Russia’s pact with OPEC to curb oil output in order to balance supply and deman
Russia to continue cooperation with OPEC to keep oil market balanced: Putin - (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and OPEC have ‘a common goal’ of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow will continue cooperation under the global supply curbs deal.Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during an annual VTB Capital "Russia Calling" Investment Forum in Moscow, Russia, November 20, 2019. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERSThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets on Dec. 5 in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other exporters, including Russia, known as OPEC+.“Our (common with OPEC) goal is for the market to be balanced, acceptable for producers and consumers and the most important - and I want to underline this - predictable,” Putin told a forum on Wednesday.Saudi Arabia’s King Salman said on Wednesday that the kingdom’s oil policy aims to promote stability in global oil markets, and serves consumers and producers alike. It plans to announce pricing for an initial public offering of its crown asset, Saudi Aramco, also on Dec. 5.In October, Russia cut its oil output to 11.23 million barrels per day (bpd) from 11.25 million bpd in September but it was still higher than a 11.17-11.18 million bpd cap set for Moscow under the existing global deal.Putin told the forum that Russia’s oil production was growing slightly despite the supply curbs deal but Moscow was not aiming to be the world’s No. 1 crude producer. Currently, the United States is the world’s top oil producer.
Who Actually Controls the World's Oil? - The answer to the question posed is a tricky one. If we simplistically look at proven oil reserves, the answer is obvious: mostly OPEC and Russia. According to BP, the global authority on the subject, this collective group of 16 countries owns 1.35 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves, or nearly 80 percent of the world’s total. Yet to be sure, there are outside questions as to how much oil OPEC in particular actually has. Unlike the U.S. reserves, which get monitored by the Securities and Exchange Commission, those in OPEC’s Member Countries are not independently verified. In short, BP and other reporting agencies must simply take them at face value. In any event, reserves are just a subset of the much larger oil resource. They represent how much oil can be produced today under prevailing prices and technologies. Both of these factors are always in flux, however, and their changes can lift more of the resource into the reserve category. For example, although recognized for holding 10 percent of the world’s proven oil, most of Canada’s massive oil sands deposits in Alberta only become accessible if prices are high enough. In the U.S., the emergence of shale shows how oil that was unavailable just a few years ago can become reachable as extraction technologies relentlessly advance. The EIA reports that the world has 420 billion barrels of recoverable tight oil, potentially offering other nations such as Argentina and China, for instance, a chance at better control. The next assessment in global oil control is the actual production of the commodity itself. Not surprisingly, OPEC and Russia control 50-55 percent of all output. Even with the U.S. shale revolution, the influence of this bloc remains undeniable: its 1.2 million b/d production cut agreement has put a floor under the global market. Even more importantly, Russia and OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia control a combined 25-30 percent of all exports. This is essential leverage for these two oil-obsessed nations because nearly 75 percent of total oil usage is internationally traded. But, as the world’s largest liquids producer at 15-16 million b/d, huge export plans for the U.S. will give the country a firmer grip on the global market. Also giving the U.S. outsized influence is the fact that its dollar is the global currency used in trading oil. Indeed, America’s shale boom will continue to act as a counterweight to OPEC and Russian control. Regardless of who controls the world’s oil, however, we know that new investments in finding and producing more are required. To avoid a potential shortfall and price spike, IEA estimates that some $700 billion is needed in annual E&P spending for decades to come.
Oil Short-Selling Unwinds -- Hedge-fund managers unwound bets that crude will fall at the fastest pace in 16 months as the prospects for a trade war truce and a slowdown in shale drilling helped futures rebound. Oil short-sellers slashed their bearish positions on West Texas Intermediate crude by 41% in the week ended Nov. 12, data released Friday show. As they come into the market as buyers to close positions, they are contributing to oil’s 10% rebound since early October. “We saw a pretty significant amount of short covering this last week,” said Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities commodity strategist. “That’s in line with recent optimism we have seen, much of which was driven by optimism on the trade file, and also a relatively more recent narrative that the shale patch is not going to be able to sustain its output profile.” While U.S. explorers are still pumping crude at a record clip, drilling has plunged to the lowest level in more than two years as companies come under increasing pressure to cut spending, with many strapped for cash. That means an eventual slowdown in output. It also helps that the U.S. is signaling a truce with China, with White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow saying Thursday that trade negotiations were coming down to the final stages. WTI ended the week at $57.72 a barrel, the highest in almost two months. Money managers’ WTI net-long position, or the difference between bullish and bearish bets, rose 32% to 153,174 futures and options, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The more bullish stance was entirely due to the short-selling slump, though, as long-only bets fell 3.3%. This signals that the price rebound may be short-lived, especially because there are still concerns about the global economy and imminent supply influxes from places like Brazil and Guyana.
Oil price rally squeezes bears, but bulls keep powder dry (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers continued to scale back short positions in crude last week amid receding fears of a global recession and increasing signs of a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth next year. Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of positions equivalent to 41 million barrels in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Nov. 12 (https://tmsnrt.rs/32RR4RK). Funds have purchased 176 million barrels in the last five weeks, after selling 206 million in the previous three weeks, according to ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In the most recent week, funds reduced existing bearish short positions by 31 million barrels while adding 10 million barrels of new long positions. Portfolio managers were buyers of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+40 million barrels) and Brent (+28 million) but sold U.S. gasoline (-8 million), U.S. heating oil (-6 million) and European gasoil (-13 million). But the preponderance of short positions closed, rather than long positions opened last week, suggests most recent changes are being driven by reduced pessimism rather than any great optimism about the economy. The rotation out of refined fuels and towards crude also suggests caution about the health of oil demand and a focus on production losses as a result of the slump in prices over the last year. Short positions in NYMEX WTI have fallen by almost 62 million barrels (49%) since Oct. 22 as fund managers’ have become less pessimistic about the price outlook. Hedge funds’ bullish long positions outnumber bearish short ones by a ratio of 3.76:1, but that is down from 4.39 at the end of September and far below 8.68 in April, underlining fund caution.
Shell Traders Rake In $1B Profit in Fuel Oil Market -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc has made $1 billion from trading fuel oil this year, making it one of the standout winners from rules designed to make the shipping industry greener. Shell said last month that it made substantial money in fuel-oil trading in the third quarter, but the company didn’t disclose the size of the profits. Shell traders celebrated hitting the $1 billion mark so far, likely the biggest by any one company in fuel oil this year, by ringing a bell on the company’s trading floor in London earlier this month, people familiar with the matter said. Shell declined to comment. The fuel-oil market has been shaken this year by the so-called IMO 2020 new regulations that ban the use of high-sulfur fuel oil, known as HSFO, to power ships. The rules are aimed at combating human health conditions such as asthma and environmental damage including acid rain. Prices are collapsing because the global shipping fleet, which burns more than 3% of the world’s oil, will instead have to consume very low sulfur fuel-oil, or VLSFO. Although better known for its oil fields, refineries and pump stations, Shell runs an in-house trading business that’s larger than the better-known independent oil traders like Vitol Group, Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group, handling 13 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company describes itself as “one of the largest and most experienced energy merchants in the world” with major trading floors in Houston, London, Dubai, Rotterdam and Singapore. Europe’s largest oil company told investors that its downstream business, which includes refining, oil trading and fuel stations, benefited during the third quarter from “stronger contributions from oil-products trading and optimization, mainly fuel oil.” In a conference call with analysts, Jessica Uhl, Shell’s head of finance, said the company’s traders benefited from “the change in the fuel standards” linked to IMO 2020, the name by which the ship-fuel rules are widely known. It’s unclear exactly how Shell’s traders made their profit, but premiums for fuel that’s lower in sulfur have surged this year, potentially benefiting those companies that produce more of the product. Shell’s refining system is a relatively sophisticated one, something that could put the company in a better position as the regulations enter into force. The margin to produce high-sulfur fuel oil in Europe recently slumped to a more than 10-year low, according to the International Energy Agency.
Oil prices flat with markets on hold for progress in US-China trade talks Oil falls more than 1% as trade uncertainty, oversupply concerns weigh - Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, erasing last week’s gains and tumbling alongside U.S. stocks on uncertainty over a trade deal between the United States and China. Brent crude futures fell 95 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $62.35. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 67 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $57.05. Wall Street’s three main stock indexes also fell from last week’s record highs following a report that stoked concerns a U.S.-China trade deal might not get through, which pushed oil prices lower, analysts said. “Crude has become highly reactive to whichever way the wind is blowing in the (U.S.-China) trade talks. When it falters, prices get punished,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “This headwind of slack demand growth keeps holding us back.” The 16-month trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has slowed global growth, prompting analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand growth and raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. China and the United States had “constructive talks” on trade in a high-level call on Saturday, state media Xinhua reported on Sunday, but it gave few other details. On Monday, CNBC quoted a Chinese government source saying the mood in Beijing about a trade deal was pessimistic due to U.S. President Donald Trumps reluctance to roll back on tariffs. “The souring trade situation has put a halt to the rally,” . Expectations of lower seasonal demand for gasoline in the United States also weighed on oil prices. Concerns about plentiful crude supplies in 2020 weighed on the market, which expects OPEC to extend production cuts in early December to help avoid a new global glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said last week it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020, supporting a view that there is a case for the group and other producers like Russia - collectively known as OPEC+ - to maintain limits on production.
Oil ends lower amid lack of China trade progress trade; Natural-gas prices skid to November nadir - Oil futures settled lower on Monday, after posting back-to-back weekly gains on rising hope for a so-called phase-one U.S.-China trade deal. “Trade optimism continues to play a major role in what has been a generally bullish run since early October, but the lack of concrete progress should challenge further speculative support,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. “Ultimately, a lack of a signed phase one deal — however preliminary — will likely look to unwind some of crude’s recent gains.” West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery US:CLZ19 fell 67 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $57.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while January Brent crude BRNF20, +1.76% lost 86 cents, or 1.4%, at $62.44 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both crude benchmarks tallied gains in each of the last two weeks and their dollar and percentage losses Monday were the largest single-session declines since Nov. 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Further headwinds come from last week’s Energy Information Administration inventory data, which revealed a “moderately stronger than expected build” for U.S. crude stocks for the week ended Nov. 8, along with preliminary production figures showing a climbed to a new all-time high at 12.8 million barrels a day, said Fraser, in a daily note. “That jump comes amid expectations of a prolonged slowdown in growth in the coming years, but that may not materialize until producers cross the 13 [million barrels a day] threshold.” On Monday, EIA said in a monthly report that crude-oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is forecast to climb by 49,000 barrels a day in December to 9.133 million barrels a day. Oil output from the Permian Basin, which covers parts of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is expected to see the biggest increase, up 57,000 barrels a day in December from November. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, marked their lowest settlement month to date, with December natural-gas futures NGZ19, -0.39% down 12.2 cents, or 4.5%, to $2.566 per million British thermal units. Prices had already lost 3.6% last week. Prices for the fuel took heavy losses to start the week “as the probability of colder-than-normal temperatures over the 6- to 14-day period has fallen significantly,” said Christin Redmond, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. “Despite a cold start to November, which has already begun to draw down inventories at a rapid rate, production levels remain strong, keeping prices in check as temperatures look to return to normal.”
Oil eases amid concern over US-China trade talks dragging on - U.S. oil prices fell for the second straight day on Tuesday amid market jitters over limited progress between China and the United States on rolling back trade tariffs, while rising U.S. inventories also jangled nerves. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 27 cents or 0.47% to $56.78 a barrel by 0549 GMT, slipping further away from an eight-week high hit last Friday when hopes for the trade deal rose. Brent crude futures were down 20 cents, or 0.32%, at $62.24. A Chinese government source was quoted by broadcaster CNBC on Monday as saying there was gloom in Beijing about prospects for a trade deal, with Chinese officials troubled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment that there was no agreement on phasing out tariffs. “We had reports overnight that the mood in Beijing was pessimistic,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney. “The lack of announcement is really concerning for the demand outlook ... the market is very nervous about the trade talks.” The lingering trade battle that has seen the world’s two biggest economies impose tit-for-tat tariffs on each other has hit global growth prospects and clouded the outlook for future oil demand. Meanwhile a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showing U.S. crude oil stockpile were seen rising for the fourth straight week also squeezed prices. “Unless we get further concrete signs of global growth rally or an extension in production cuts by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and associated producers including Russia), WTI will struggle to attempt to recapture the $60-a-barrel mark,” . One possible factor supporting prices going forward was a renewal in geopolitical tensions, with news from Dubai that armed members of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement had seized a vessel towing a South Korean rig at the southern end of the Red Sea over the weekend.
Oil Sinks As Trade War Sentiment Turns Sour - Oil prices fell at the start of the week on fears of ongoing oversupply and a more pessimistic outlook on the trade war. The trade negotiations continue to drive market sentiment and an agreement is looking increasingly unlikely. U.S. shale drillers are set to cut spending by around 13 percent next year, according to an estimate from Cowen & Co. Stubbornly low prices, financial stress and pressure from shareholders for cash flow are forcing shale E&Ps to cut capex and lay off workers. . Iran was rocked by protests after the government announced fuel price increases. The price increases come as U.S. sanctions have crippled Iran’s oil production and exports. Natural gas prices fell by 4.5 percent on Monday, and dipped at the start of trading on Tuesday, due to forecasts for mild temperatures. “The lack of significant cold in the upcoming period is bad news for a market dependent on continual, stronger-than-normal heating demand to keep oversupply at bay this winter,” wrote analysts at Gelber & Associates in a Monday note. . Saudi Aramco will proceed with a domestic-only IPO, selling 1.5 percent of the company and aiming for a valuation between $1.6 and $1.7 trillion. The IPO will now depend on local investors, and lending standards have been loosened so that investors can borrow money in order to buy into the IPO. “Institutional investors are unlikely to find this valuation range attractive,” analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein said in a research note Sunday. Following challenges by environmentalists, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management in late Septembersuspended drilling operations on 117 plots of leased land in Utah while also restricting the sale of another 130 tracts due to litigation. The issue hinges on whether or not BLM adequately considered greenhouse gas emissions. The issue could be just the tip of the iceberg. “It is potentially a BLM-wide issue,”
WTI Holds Worst Loss In 7 Weeks After Bigger Than Expected Crude Build --Oil prices plunged most in seven weeks today as US-China talks appeared to stall.“We are going into this wee k with another storage build expected in the EIA’s report,” said Bob Yawger, director of futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “The trade deal has soured and the vibe on the deal has turned a bit negative and that will affect demand too.” API:
- Crude +5.954mm (+1.5mm exp)
- Cushing -1.351mm
- Gasoline +3.354mm
- Distillates -2.19mm
After last week's mixed bag (API reporting a draw and DOE reporting a build), API appears to be playing catch up with a much bigger than expected build...
Oil prices steady after two-day drop as growth concerns weigh / Oil prices extend losses on supply, trade war fears - Oil prices slipped for a third day on Wednesday as a surge in U.S. stockpiles reinforced concerns about lackluster global economic growth, while hopes ebbed for any movement on the U.S.-China trade war. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures erased early gains to be down 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $55.15 a barrel by 0631 GMT, after falling more than 4% over the previous two sessions. Brent crude futures were at $60.71 a barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.3%. Brent dropped 3.8% during the prior two sessions. Crude inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest oil user, rose 6 million barrels in the week to Nov. 15 to 445.9 million, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed late on Tuesday. The increase added to concerns about crude oversupply after Reuters reported that Russia, the world’s second-biggest producer, was unlikely to back deepening output cuts when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets on Dec. 5-6 in Vienna. Russia and other oil producers have agreed with OPEC to cut 1.2 million barrels per day of output through March to bolster prices, a producer group known as OPEC+. “The API data also showed U.S. inventories posted a rather robust increase last week, which if confirmed by the EIA report, we could see oil prices continue to slide,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at brokerage OANDA. Official U.S. government inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. U.S. crude demand has slowed during a protracted trade war with China. Hopes for an end to the dispute in the signing of a so-called Phase 1 agreement between the sides has dimmed amid disagreements over the removal of tariffs. China on Wednesday also condemned legislation passed by the U.S. Senate aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong amid a crackdown on a pro-democracy protest movement. ″(The) fear here is still the trade talk with a lot of pessimism starting to filter through,” said Stephen Innes, market strategist at AxiTrader. “If we don’t get a significant roll-back on tariffs, that’s quite negative.”
WTI Jumps Back Above $56 After Smaller Than Expected Crude Build - Oil prices are rebounding modestly this morning after the biggest drop in seven weeks yesterday and following weakness (to a $54 handle for WTI overnight) after last night's bigger than expected API-reported crude build. “Refineries should show more progress and be further back on online,” says John Kilduff partner at Again Capital in New York.“Then, we are only weeks away from the IMO2020 situation and the distillate category keeps plummeting so we have to see how big the drawdown is there and if that could possibly lend support more to the market”But, oil inventories are poised to rise for the week ended Nov. 15, even as refinery utilization increases, underlining the risks of slowing economic growth and reduced demand DOE:
- Crude +1.379mm (+1.5mm exp)
- Cushing -2.295mm
- Gasoline +1.776mm (-750k exp)
- Distillates -974k
Refinery crude runs should be rising as the fall maintenance season draws to a close and gasoline stocks rose for the second week (expectations were for a draw). Official crude inventories rose less than API reported and less than expected...
Oil Prices Higher Despite Bearish Inventory Data - Crude oil prices rose slightly after the Energy Information Administration reported a crude oil inventory build of 1.4 million barrels for the week to November 15. At 450.4 million barrels, the EIA said, inventories were some 3 percent above seasonal limits. Analysts had expected a build of 1.062 million barrels, after the EIA reported yet another weekly inventory increase for the first week of November, at 2.2 million barrels. With last week’s build, the total increase in U.S. crude oil inventories over the past two months comes in at more than 32 million barrels. Besides rising crude stocks, the EIA also reported a 1.8-million-barrel rise in gasoline stockpiles for the week to November 15, and a 1-million-barrel decline in distillate fuel inventories. This compares with a 1.9-million-barrel build in gasoline inventories for the week before, and a decline of 2.5 million barrels in distillate fuel inventories. Refineries last week produced 10.1 million bpd of gasoline, down from 10.2 million bpd a week earlier. Distillate fuel production averaged 5.1 million bpd, compared with 5 million bpd a week earlier. The average crude oil processing rate last week was 16.4 million bpd, compared with 15.9 million bpd a week earlier. The EIA report followed the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory estimate that said these had added 5.95 million barrels last week. This added pressure on prices already struggling under the double weight of concern about the global economy and diminishing hopes of a U.S.-Chinese trade deal. It’s worth noting that protests in Iraq and Iran have so far failed to exert any upward pressure on oil prices despite the fact that Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest explorer and escalating protests would eventually threaten production. Iran’s problems with protesters are less likely to influence prices because of U.S. sanctions that have shrunk the country’s oil exports, but the always present risk of escalation and spillage across borders is a potential tailwind for prices.
Oil extends gains on smaller-than-expected US inventory build - Oil prices turned positive on Wednesday, reversing two days of losses, following a smaller-than-expected build in US inventories. Prices also moved higher as Iran-related tensions escalated but receding hopes for a quick solution to the U.S.-China trade war which has dented global growth dragged on prices. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $1.04, or 1.9%, to trade at $56.25 a barrel. Brent crude futures were at $61.97 a barrel, up $1.06, or 1.7%. Crude inventories in the United States increased by 1.4 million barrels from the prior week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group Abraham Lincoln on Tuesday sailed through the vital Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows as leaders in Iran blamed days of protests over fuel price hikes on foreign enemies. Tensions in the Gulf have risen since attacks on oil tankers this summer, including off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, and a major attack on key Saudi energy plants which briefly crippled from the world’s top oil exporter. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday claimed victory over protests which have left scores reported dead. “These events contribute to a sense of increasing tensions in the Middle East and explain why we have an uptick in the oil price today,” said SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. “It’s all part of a continuous row of incidents revolving around Saudi Arabia and Iran that have still not been resolved.” Meanwhile crude inventories in the United States rose by 6 million barrels last week to 445.9 million, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. “The API data ... showed U.S. inventories posted a rather robust increase last week, which if confirmed by the EIA report, could see oil prices continue to slide,” said Edward Moya, an analyst at brokerage OANDA. U.S. crude demand has slowed during a protracted trade war with China. Hopes for an end to the dispute in the signing of a so-called Phase One agreement have dimmed amid disagreements over the removal of tariffs. China on Wednesday also condemned legislation passed by the U.S. Senate aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong amid a crackdown on a pro-democracy protest movement.
Oil prices settle about 3% higher as U.S. crude supplies rise less than expected - Oil futures finished higher on Wednesday, following a U.S. government report that showed domestic crude supplies up a fourth straight week, but by less than the six million-barrel jump reported by a trade group the day before. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 15. That followed increases in each of the past three weeks. The latest climb, however, was a bit smaller than the 1.6 million-barrel rise expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a climb of roughly 6 million barrels. The EIA crude supply numbers “were basically in line with estimates,” with prices extending gains since they did not come in as high as the large build reported by the API Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery added $1.90, or 3.4%, to settle at $57.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after settling below its 50-day moving average of $55.59 on Tuesday, according to FactSet data. The day’s dollar and percentage rise was the biggest since Nov. 1, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The December contract expired at Wednesday’s settlement. WTI oil for January delivery, the new front-month contract, tacked on $1.66, or 3%, to $57.01 a barrel. January Brent crude BRNF20, +1.60% gained 1.49, or 2.5%, to settle at $62.40 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following its 2.5% decline on Tuesday. The fourth consecutive weekly rise in crude inventories came “despite a large jump in refining activity,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData. “It is the seasonal trend that refinery runs clamber out of fall maintenance at this time of year, hence despite the rise in refinery runs, they remain 420,000 [barrels per day] below year-ago levels,” “Lower flows as a result of the Keystone pipeline outage mean ongoing draws to Cushing [Okla.] inventories, but a rebound in imports and another [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] release has encouraged a modest build on the aggregate.” The EIA data also showed a supply rise of 1.8 million barrels for gasoline, but distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels. The S&P Global Platts survey showed expectations for a supply climb of 750,000 barrels for gasoline, while distillates were forecast to fall by 1.4 million barrels On Nymex, December gasoline rose 3.3% to $1.6563 a gallon and December heating oil added 1.9% to $1.8921 a gallon. December natural gas settled at $2.559 per million British thermal units, up 2%.
Oil dips on worries US-China trade deal could slip to next year - Oil prices retreated on Thursday as a spat over added to worries of a delay in any U.S.-China trade deal, after posting steep gains in the previous session on bullish U.S. crude inventory data. The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has dominated the outlook for future oil demand, and trade experts have warned the completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slip into next year. Brent crude futures fell 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.15 a barrel by 0138 GMT. The international benchmark rose 2.5% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 20 cents, or 0.4%, to $56.81 per barrel. U.S. crude closed up 3.4% in the previous session. “The trade talks are driving prices. I think you can draw a straight line vector between the price of oil and sentiment around trade,” said Stephen Innes, market strategist at AxiTrader. “I view the (U.S.-China) deal as massive. A trade deal would allow held-back business investment decisions to move forward and possibly turn around the faltering momentum in Indian oil import demand, which could soak up a large portion of the supply glut.” Among the latest trade row hurdles, China condemned a U.S. Senate bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he is inclined to raise tariffs on Chinese imports if a trade deal is not reached. A big draw down of crude stocks at the U.S. delivery hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, however, propelled oil prices higher on Wednesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing fell by 2.3 million barrels, while U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week to Nov. 15, compared with expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.
Oil hits two-month high on hopes of longer OPEC cuts, continuing US-China talks - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a Reuters report that OPEC and its allies are likely to extend output cuts until mid-2020, while fresh signs emerged that China had invited U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of talks. Brent crude futures gained $1.57, or 2.5%, to settle at $63.97 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged to a two-month high, gaining 2.8% to settle at $58.58, according to Dow Jones. To support oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are likely to extend output cuts to June when they meet next month, according to OPEC sources. OPEC meets on Dec. 5 at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other oil producers, lead by Russia, known as OPEC+. The current supply cuts deal runs through to March 2020. The sources told Reuters that formally announcing deeper cuts looked unlikely for now although a message about better compliance with existing curbs could be sent to the market. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday Russia and OPEC had “a common goal” of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow would continue cooperation under a global deal cutting oil supply. Also supportive for the markets, the Chinese commerce ministry said China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open. A Reuters report on Wednesday said completion of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year. Amid the long-drawn trade war between the United States and China, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign two bills passed by Congress intended to support protesters in Hong Kong, a move likely to anger China.
Oil falls from two-month high as US-China trade doubts dominate - Oil prices were toppled from their highest in nearly two months on Friday by doubts over future demand for crude as uncertainty continues to shroud a potential U.S.-China trade deal, and along with it the health of the global economy. That was more than enough to offset news of a likely extension of production cuts among major producers that drove prices higher in the previous session on the prospect of tight crude supply. By 0159 GMT, Brent crude futures had slid 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.67 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.24 a barrel, down 34 cents or 0.6%. “The key factor for the demand outlook for oil is the (U.S.-China) trade negotiation currently going on,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets and Stockbroking in Sydney. “With oil near the top of recent trading ranges it’s no surprise to see a bit of selling pressure during the session today.” Prices had touched their highest since late September on Thursday after Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia are likely to extend existing production cuts by another three months to mid-2020 when they meet on Dec. 5. Oil was also buoyed by comments from China’s commerce ministry on Thursday that it will strive to reach an initial agreement with the United States to end the pair’s long-running trade war, allaying fears that talks might be unraveling. However, the completion of a phase one deal could slide into next year. News that last week saw the biggest draw down in three months for U.S. crude stock stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma also underpinned prices earlier this week. Cushing is the delivery point for WTI futures. Elsewhere, traders are also keeping a keen eye on the impact on oil production at OPEC countries Iran and Iraq amid ongoing protests.
Oil retreats from a 2-month high, with U.S. prices ending the week lower - Oil futures fell on Friday, after settling at a two-month high a day earlier, with U.S. prices ending the week with a modest loss. The market saw “a bit of a pullback after the last two days” of gains for oil, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. Prices “hit resistance” when China’s President Xi Jinping said Friday that “he wanted some respect,” as that resurfaced worries about the lack of a trade deal, he told MarketWatch. Xi said Beijing wants to work with the U.S. for a trade deal, but was not afraid to “fight back” to protect its own interests, according to the Associated Press. Oil prices had found support early Friday on growing expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will agree to extend production cuts when they meet next month. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CLF20, +0.28% fell 81 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at$57.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while January Brent crude BRNF20, +0.17%, the global benchmark, lost 58 cents, or 0.9%, at $63.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. The front-month U.S. benchmark WTI contract ended 0.1% lower for the week, while Brent, the global benchmark, saw weekly gain of roughly 0.1% weekly gain. Both grades ended Thursday at their highest levels since Sept. 23.
Oil Prices Show Tiny Gains After Volatile Week | Rigzone -- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil capped off a volatile week Friday with very modest day-on-day gains. January WTI futures lost 81 cents Friday, settling at $57.77 per barrel. The light crude marker traded within a range from $57.50 to $58.74. Compared to the November 15 settlement, the WTI is up by well under one percent. Brent crude for January delivery declined 58 cents to end the day at $63.39 per barrel. It also showed a very slight gain week-on-week and is up just one-tenth of one cent. “It was another roller-coaster ride for crude oil this week as the daily saga of U.S.-China trade relations ebbed and flowed while a bullish inventory report, a continuing decline in drilling activity and a weaker U.S. Dollar helped push prices higher on the week,” commented Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Business at the University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business. Seng pointed out that data on manufacturing activity in Europe and Asia showed a lessening decline – and helped to buoy stocks in those areas. Also, he noted the U.S. Dollar – down for most of the week – rebounded Friday and added some weakness to oil prices. Additionally, citing the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report, he noted:
- Domestic commercial crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels, compared to the 1.1 million- and 1.6 million-barrel builds projected by Wall Street Journal and S&P analysts, respectively; meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 6 million-barrel increase in oil stocks.
- Total crude oil in storage stands at 450 million barrels, three percent higher than the five-year average for this time of year.
- The volume of oil stored at the Cushing, Okla., hub dropped by 2.3 million barrels to a total of 44.2 million barrels – approximately 58 percent of capacity.
- Refinery utilization increased by 0.7 percent to 87.8 percent, or 16.4 million barrels per day (bpd).
- Oil imports were down 18 percent year-on-year.
Could The Aramco IPO Kill OPEC? - - The global oil market could be entering unchartered waters in the coming weeks. After the US shale revolution, which threatened OPEC’s hold on and the stability of the market, a new danger is lurking around the corner.The Aramco IPO, the largest IPO in history, will not only impact OPEC but will also have repercussions for the Kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and the entire GCC region.Most analysts have pointed out that there are some major issues with the company’s financials, its valuation and possible returns for the Kingdom. International banks are presenting their own IPO valuations, indicating a wide range of price targets, leaving a lot of room for speculation. At the same time, Aramco’s IPO prospectus indicates some threats which seem not to have been included in most analyses, such as the impact of flattening oil demand growth, potential legal repercussions if listed on Western stock exchanges and the potential lack of interest from US and European institutional investors.And the financials are just one thing analysts are reviewing. Legal risks, including the 9/11 bill, the attitude of the U.S. congress, and the NOPEC bill could pose a major threat to the future of Aramco. The possibility of investing in an oil company that could be sued for so-called terrorism or violent actions taken by third parties may be new but oil companies have always been targets of legal cases.
Saudi Arabia Cuts Aramco Valuation -- Saudi Arabia set a valuation target for Aramco’s initial public offering well below Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s goal of $2 trillion and pared back the size of the sale to ensure the world’s largest oil producer successfully lists on the Riyadh stock exchange next month. The Saudi central bank also relaxed lending limits to boost demand from local investors after bankers were unable to convince many international money managers of the merits of the deal. Aramco will sell just 1.5% of its shares on the local stock exchange, about half the amount that had been considered, and seek a valuation of between $1.6 trillion and $1.71 trillion. While that would allow Aramco to overtake Apple Inc. as the world’s biggest public company by some distance, the plans are a long way from Prince Mohammed’s initial aims: a local and international listing to raise as much as $100 billion for the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund. At the lower end of the price range, the offer would fall short of a record, coming in just below the $25 billion raised by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in 2014. The lackluster response from investors outside the kingdom meant Aramco decided shares won’t be marketed in the U.S. and Canada as originally planned. Japan is also off the list. But bankers working on the deal said they were confident that there was more than enough local demand to ensure the deal’s success at the proposed valuation.
Saudi Aramco flotation is a failure before it has even begun - By all the main advertised yardsticks of success, the flotation of Saudi Aramcocan be called a failure even before the shares have started trading. Once upon a time, the word’s most profitable company was going to be worth $2tn (£1.5tn), the number coveted by the Saudi Arabian crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. That’s not happening. The official price range for the initial public offering (IPO) was set at the weekend at $1.6tn to $1.7tn.A secondary goal was to insert Aramco shares into the portfolios of international investors. A few outsiders will still buy, but the Aramco IPO has morphed into a smaller affair in which the main targets are locals and other Gulf investors. Saudi banks have even been issuing loans to local retail investors to buy stock. Meanwhile, Aramco’s management has cancelled marketing roadshows in the US, Asia and Europe. You can see the effect in the dwindling proportion of shares to be sold via the listing. A couple of years ago, it was imagined that 5% of Aramco could be sold in the first offering. Expectations were managed down to 2%-3% in recent weeks. In the event, only 1.5% will be sold.The third original ambition has almost been forgotten: it was to get Aramco listed on a foreign stock exchange as well as the local Tadawul market. But the IPO was redesigned as a Tadawul-only affair a while back and there is no timetable for when, if ever, a secondary listing on a foreign exchange will be pursued.The Saudis could argue that the IPO is at least happening, which is an achievement of sorts. Yes, receipts from selling even 1.5% of the company will still be about $25bn, a useful sum with which to start reforming the Saudi economy. And, yes, Aramco will still be the world’s most valuable company.But most of those milestones could have passed without the need to recruit a small battalion of western investment banks. One can speculate on the reasons for the tepid demand from outside the region. Revulsion at the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October last year? Worries about Aramco’s governance? Concern about attacks on refineries? Or a fundamental difference of opinion about valuation given that shares in BP, Shell, Chevron and Exxon offer higher dividend yields? Probably all of the above. The IPO will roll on, and a great triumph will presumably be declared for official purposes. But it’s nothing of the sort. Instead, pitching Aramco to an international audience has been filed under “too difficult for now”.
Aramco Scraps US And London IPO Roadshows Amid Too Many Uncertainties - Saudi Aramco has withdrawn from IPO roadshows in the US and London after it's likely they don't want to disclose oil reserve totals to Western banks and regulators. Meanwhile, it's becoming a giant circle-jerk for the Saudis, the IPO is expected to list on the Tadawul exchange, while the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) is expected to double the amount it would lend out to domestic "buyers" for IPO purchases, reported Bloomberg. Aramco set a price range Sunday for its IPO between $1.6 to $1.7 trillion, far below the $2 trillion levels the Saudi crown prince had imagined, but priced higher than most what most institutional analysts thought was possible. Besides the US and London, the IPO roadshow was also canceled in Canada and even in major financial hubs across Europe this week. Aramco said Sunday it would sell 1.5% of its shares (3 billion shares) for around $8 per share, valuing the IPO around $25.6 billion. Over $25 billion would be a record-breaking IPO value amount, which would eclipse the amount Alibaba Group Holding Limited raised in its 2014 IPO debuted.
Aramco IPO Raises $20 Billion In Orders -The Saudi Aramco IPO has garnered $19.47 billion (73 billion riyals) in institutional and retail orders so far, Saudi Arabia’s Samba Financial Group reported on Thursday afternoon, according to Reuters.The orders came from 1.8 million retail subscribers who contributed $3.7 billion into the IPO. Reuters had reported earlier that the institutional tranche of the IPO had been oversubscribed, but that preliminary estimates, according to Reuters, show that that it is not.“Retail and Institutional subscription levels for the first five days of the offering have reached an unprecedented scale, demonstrating the confidence of investors in Saudi Aramco,” Rania Nashar, vice chairman of Samba Capital, told Reuters, adding that the bank expected “further increases in subscription levels during the remainder of the offering period.”Samba Financial Group, a Saudi Arabia local lender, is managing investor orders for the IPO along with National Commercial Bank and HSBC Holdings PLC, Bloomberg reported yesterday, after other foreign banks found themselves with smaller roles after Saudi Arabia chose to focus on the local bourse only.Aramco is planning to meet investors in Dubai’s Ritz Carlton on November 24 in hopes of raising $25.6 billion through its share sales. The following day, Aramco will meet investors in Abu Dhabi as well. But its tour will no longer include New York and London, since Aramco decided not to sell its Aramco shares to developed-market investors. Aramco’s top valuation figure is $1.7 trillion—a disappointment for Saudi Arabia who had held out hope for years for a $2 trillion valuation. Aramco plans to sell 1.5% of the company, which would work out to be roughly 3 billion shares. The total value of the IPO is expected to come in somewhere near $25 billion in what will be the world’s largest IPO to date.
Trump Notifies Congress More Troops Headed To Saudi Arabia As Carrier Enters Hormuz - So much for drawing down in the Middle East. President Trump notified Congress on Tuesday that more American troops are en route to Saudi Arabia, which will bring their overall numbers to about 3,000 in the kingdom. "These personnel will remain deployed as long as their presence is required to fulfill the missions described above," the president said in a letter.The official White House notification of Congressional members described the American military presence there as essential in countering Iran's influence in the region. Forces were deployed “to assure our partners, deter further Iranian provocative behavior, and bolster regional defensive capabilities,” the letter addressed to the House of Representatives stated.Last month the Pentagon announced the extra troop deployments as well as military hardware, including Patriot missiles to the kingdom, after the prior September drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities.Interestingly, that prior announcement took place just as Trump controversially pushed to withdraw US forces from Syria, something which ended in merely moving troops from the Turkish border and into Syria's oil fields east of the Euphrates. “Iran has continued to threaten the security of the region, including by attacking oil and natural gas facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on Sept. 14, 2019,” Trump said in the letter. Today U.S. Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) - a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier - escorted by air defense and guided missile destroyers- enters the Strait of Hormuz. Abe Lincoln can field up to 90 aircraft pic.twitter.com/ugYqVlRJeV — Nader Uskowi (@nuskowi) November 19, 2019 The president said missiles and radar equipment will “improve defenses against air and missile threats” and includes expeditionary wing to assist Saudi aircraft (which, it should be noted, were also purchased from the US).
Houthis Rebels Hijack Saudi Ship Carrying Oil Rig - The Iranian-aligned Houthis in Yemen have seized a vessel that was towing a South Korean drilling rig that was in the Red Sea, the Saudi-led collation said on Monday, in what is an apparent escalation of tensions in the Middle East following drone attacks and other ship seizures in vital oil shipping lanes. The vessel, the tugboat Rabigh-3, was seized on Sunday, according to the Saudi coalition as reported by Reuters—a development that was confirmed by a Houthi official, who said the vessel would be released if the vessel was confirmed that it was of South Korean origin and not from “countries of aggression”.Saudi Coalition spokesperson Colonel Turki al-Malki characterized the incident as a hijacking “by terrorist elements affiliated to the Houthi militia.”The Rabigh-3 flies under the Saudi Arabian flag. The current destination of the Rabigh-3 is listed as the SALEEF port in Yemen.South Korea is demanding the release of its rig and its crew, and Yemeni Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Hadrami and South Korean Ambassador Pak Woongchul are meeting to discuss the incident. The Houthi rebel group was eager to claim the incident on September 14 where Saudi Aramco oil infrastructure was attacked, taking offline millions of barrels of oil per day off the market. However, questions were raised immediately about the veracity of those claims, with many analysts and experts pointing the finger directly at Iran instead. Regardless of the perpetrator of the attacks, the incident raised concerns as to the security of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry in the run up to its local IPO.
"Alarming" Leaked Intel Report: Qatar Had Prior Knowledge Of Iran Attack On Vessel - A leaked US intelligence report is making its rounds suggesting that Qatar knew ahead of time that Iran would attack four tankers in the Gulf of Oman in May, yet failed to notify its at-risk allies, Fox News recently reported.The May attacks targeted two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, both near the critical oil chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, and both of which sustained “significant” damage according to an official Saudi statement at the time. Iran denied the attacks. The other two vessels were a Norwegian tanker and a UAE bunkering ship. The intelligence report, which has not been made public, has apparently made its way to at least one French Senator who said she was “very concerned” and a British lawmaker who said the contents of the report were “very alarming”. Both were sending the report up their respective chains for a closer look.No one from inside the US intelligence community has officially acknowledged the report or its contents. If Qatar did, in fact, know that Iran would attack the vessels and declined to warn its allies, there may be geopolitical repercussions for the tiny Middle Eastern country that finds itself sandwiched precariously between Saudi Arabia and the UAE — both of which have participated in a long-running blockade of Qatar. Qatar has, in recent years, purchased a significant number of arms from France, and the United States’ Central Command station in Qatar and its 10,000-strong military presence in Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base is a nice security feature that Qatar boasts — for now.But things can turn on a dime. US President Trump has already flopped on Qatar, first calling it a “funder of terrorism at a very high level” and later saying that the ruling emir was “a friend of mine”. Qatar has denied any prior knowledge of the attacks.
Series Of Blasts Target Mass Protest Gathering In Baghdad, Multiple Dead & Wounded A series of explosions ripped through central Baghdad on Friday night, and appeared to target protests which have raged since early October, killing at least three people. Some unconfirmed reports have cited four dead and a dozen wounded in a developing situation where the casualty toll is expected to climb. The final in a string of blasts was identified according to early reports and video as a car bomb in Tahrir Square, which did the worst damage, killing and wounding multiple protesters. Second explosion in Baghdad. Minutes earlier at least 4 killed and 11 heavily wounded by a car bomb #Iraqpic.twitter.com/dQNNHeSeux "A large number of people injured by the booby-trapped car bomb were taken by the drivers of the Tek-Tik wheels to hospitals near Tahrir," a source told Arabic media. Another blast was reported in nearby Tayaran Square as well, which may have also resulted in casualties. Though anti-corruption and anti-government demonstrations have witnessed violent clashes with police, resulting at this point in over 300 dead and an estimated 15,000 wounded, the bombing escalates things to a new level of violence. Some among the string of blasts as well as the aftermath caught on video: الصور الأولى للانفجار الذي هز وسط #بغداد بالقرب من #ساحة_التحرير وأدى إلى سقوط عدد من القتلى والجرحى#شاهد_سكاي pic.twitter.com/NjqcrRRDHA In the moments before the explosions Tahrir Square appeared packed with tens of thousands of demonstrators. Both protest leaders and international media have blamed security forces for the ratcheting violence due to occasions where they've used live fire to disperse crowds.
Iraqi protesters cut roads, retake third strategic bridge - Anti-government protesters in Iraq seized control of a third strategic Baghdad bridge on Sunday, while others blocked roads with burning tyres in parts of central and southern Iraq, halting traffic and paralysing work following a call for a national strike.Protesters retook control of half of Ahrar Bridge, which leads to the other side of the Tigris River near the heavily fortified Green Zone, the seat of Iraq’s government. Security forces deployed on the other side of the bridge and erected concrete barriers to keep protesters from pushing into the area.At least 320 people have been killed and thousands wounded since the unrest in the capital and the mostly Shia southern provinces began on Oct 1. Protesters have taken to the streets in the tens of thousands over what they say is widespread corruption, lack of job opportunities and poor basic services despite the country’s oil wealth.Bridges leading toward the Green Zone have been a frequent flashpoint in the protests. Demonstrators had taken control of these bridges earlier this month but were later repelled when security forces took harsh suppressive measures. Ahrar Bridge was the third retaken by the protesters, after seizing part of Sinak Bridge and central Khilani Square the previous day following fierce clashes. They were also present in Jumhouriyya Bridge adjacent to Tahrir Square, the epicentre of the protest movement.Iraqi security forces withdrew from Khilani Square after firing live ammunition and tear gas against protesters trying to tear down a concrete barrier blocking entry to the square. Protesters also took control of a five-story parking garage adjacent to the bridge, giving them a bird’s eye view over the Green Zone and the street below, mirroring tactics employed in Tahrir Square, where they occupied an iconic 14-story Saddam Hussein-era building that has become a reference point for demonstrators. In the southern port city of Basra and in cities like Nasiriyah, Amara and Kut, protesters set tires ablaze to close off roads, keeping employees from reaching their work places. Schools, universities and other institutions closed for the day.In parts of Baghdad, particularly the sprawling Sadr City neighbourhood, protesters sat in the middle of the streets to prevent employees from getting to their workplaces. They also blocked roads with motorcycles and tuk-tuks, snarling traffic. There will be no offices open until the last corrupt person is removed, one protester said, declining to be identified for security reasons. Only then we will pull out from here.
A Spy Complex Revealed - The Intercept - IN MID-OCTOBER, with unrest swirling in Baghdad, a familiar visitor slipped quietly into the Iraqi capital. The city had been under siege for weeks, as protesters marched in the streets, demanding an end to corruption and calling for the ouster of the prime minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi. The visitor was there to restore order, but his presence highlighted the protesters’ biggest grievance: He was Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, head of Iran’s powerful Quds Force, and he had come to persuade an ally in the Iraqi Parliament to help the prime minister hold on to his job. Now leaked Iranian documents offer a detailed portrait of just how aggressively Tehran has worked to embed itself into Iraqi affairs, and of the unique role of Suleimani. The documents are contained in an archive of secret Iranian intelligence cables obtained by The Intercept and shared with the New York Times for this article, which is being published simultaneously by both news organizations. The unprecedented leak exposes Tehran’s vast influence in Iraq, detailing years of painstaking work by Iranian spies to co-opt the country’s leaders, pay Iraqi agents working for the Americans to switch sides, and infiltrate every aspect of Iraq’s political, economic, and religious life. Many of the cables describe real-life espionage capers that feel torn from the pages of a spy thriller. Meetings are arranged in dark alleyways and shopping malls or under the cover of a hunting excursion or a birthday party. Informants lurk at the Baghdad airport, snapping pictures of American soldiers and keeping tabs on coalition military flights. Agents drive meandering routes to meetings to evade surveillance. Sources are plied with gifts of pistachios, cologne, and saffron. Iraqi officials, if necessary, are offered bribes. The archive even contains expense reports from intelligence ministry officers in Iraq, including one totaling 87.5 euros spent on gifts for a Kurdish commander. According to one of the leaked Iranian intelligence cables, Abdul-Mahdi, who in exile worked closely with Iran while Saddam Hussein was in power in Iraq, had a “special relationship with the IRI” — the Islamic Republic of Iran — when he was Iraq’s oil minister in 2014. The exact nature of that relationship is not detailed in the cable, and, as one former senior U.S. official cautioned, a “special relationship could mean a lot of things — it doesn’t mean he is an agent of the Iranian government.” But no Iraqi politician can become prime minister without Iran’s blessing, and Abdul-Mahdi, when he secured the premiership in 2018, was seen as a compromise candidate acceptable to both Iran and the United States. The leaked cables offer an extraordinary glimpse inside the secretive Iranian regime. They also detail the extent to which Iraq has fallen under Iranian influence since the American invasion in 2003, which transformed Iraq into a gateway for Iranian power, connecting the Islamic Republic’s geography of dominance from the shores of the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
Hassan Rouhani warns protest-hit Iran cannot allow ‘insecurity’- President Hassan Rouhani warned on Sunday that "anarchy and rioting" would not be tolerated after fuel price rises led to deadly mass protests throughout Iran. An estimated 87,000 people took part in the demonstrations, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, and at least two people were killed. Dozens of banks and shops were set on fire or damaged in the violence and about 1,000 arrests were made. "People have the right to protest, but that is different from riots," Rouhani was quoted as saying. "We cannot let insecurity in the country through riots." Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards echoed Rouhani's statement on Monday, warning of "decisive" action if unrest does not cease, according to state television. "If necessary we will take decisive and revolutionary action against any continued moves to disturb the people's peace and security," the statement carried by state media said. It is unclear how many people have been killed or wounded as videos from the protests have shown people gravely wounded. Access to the internet was also severely curtailed by the authorities. Iran's intelligence ministry said in a statement the protest leaders had been identified and "appropriate action" was being taken. The United States on Sunday condemned the use of "lethal force" and "severe communications restrictions" against demonstrators in Iran.
Iran petrol price hike: Protesters warned that security forces may intervene - Iran's Interior Minister has warned security officials will step up action against protesters taking to the streets over a new petrol policy. Protests have erupted across Iran after the government unexpectedly announced it was rationing petrol and increasing its price. At least one person has been killed and others injured in the violence. Officials say the changes, which have seen prices rise by at least 50%, will free up money to help the poor. Iran is already suffering economically due to stiff sanctions imposed by the US after Washington decided to pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Protests erupted hours after the new policies were announced on Friday - with fresh demonstrations on Saturday in some cities. There are also reports that access to the internet may have been restricted, Reuters reported citing a web monitoring group. Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani-Fazli, speaking during an interview with state television on Saturday, warned that law enforcement and security officials will have "no choice" but to step in and restore calm if "illegal" actions continue. Mr Rahmani-Fazli criticised a "limited number" of people whom he accused of abusing the public mood to create "intimidation and terror".
Mired in a Trump-Fuelled Recession, 20 Iranian Cities erupt with Gasoline Price Protests -- – Deutsche Welle reports that the tripling of the price of gasoline by the Iranian government very early Friday morning provoked protests throughout Iran, in at least 20 cities. In Sirjan, a protester was killed. The government drastically slowed down or even cut off the internet. The biggest rallies were in Ahvaz, Sirjan and Kerman. Smaller protests broke out in Shiraz, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, Khorramshahr, Birjand, Shoshtar, Behbahan and even in the clerical shrine city of Qom, a center of power for Iran’s ruling ayatollahs.The background of these protests is that ordinarily in Middle Eastern oil states gasoline is heavily subsidized for consumers. This policy is a sort of bribe proffered to the people by authoritarian regimes in return for which the public is expected to suffer along with dictatorship.In fact, there is a weird belief among publics in the Middle East that somehow they all partially own the petroleum, so even governments such as Morocco or Egypt that have little or no petroleum feel a need to subsidize gasoline.So, tripling gasoline prices in one day is a very serious violation of the regional moral economy.On top of all that, Iran’s economy is expected to contract by 9% this year and inflation in general is already running at 35%.The Trump administration’s economic blockade of the Iranian economy has cut the country’s petroleum exports from 2.5 million barrels a day to less than a million (most of it now goes to China at a steep discount). It is the shortfall in government oil revenues that caused it to reduce fuel subsidies. The alternative would be to print extra money without any increase in productivity, which would cause even greater inflation. Inflation especially hurts the poor, students and others on fixed incomes, and affects goods imported from abroad above all. This Twitter post purports to show video of Iranian security personnel fleeing protesters in the southwestern city of Shiraz, a provincial capital. Informed Comment cannot verify its accuracy:
Over 100 Protesters Killed In Iran Amid Largest Internet Shutdown In Nation's History - Now five days into widespread protests in some one hundred Iranian cities after a dramatic gas price hike last Friday, Amnesty International reports that at least 106 have been killed. However, “The organisation believes that the real death toll may be much higher, with some reports suggesting as many as 200 have been killed,” Amnesty said in a statement.This as the government has cut off internet access across much of the country, resulting in few videos of clashes with police reaching the West, as in the early couple of days of the unrest. A statement from the global outage monitor Oracle's Internet Intelligence called it the largest blockage ever observed in Iran:Protesters took to the streets shortly after the government announced an increase in fuel prices by as much as 300%. Social media images showed banks, petrol stations and government buildings set ablaze by rioters. Some protesters chanted "down with Khamenei," according to videos, referring to the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.The internet blackout started on Saturday evening and continued through Monday, according to internet watchdogs. Oracle's Internet Intelligence called it the "largest internet shutdown ever observed in Iran."The United Nations is now urging Iran to lift the internet blockage and to show restraint after what the international body called the “clearly very serious” extent of casualties.The UN high commissioner also acknowledged it is looking into reports of live ammunition being used on demonstrators, which activists say there's ample video evidence for. The government-imposed internet block began on Saturday, leaving some 80 million citizens without online access. “We are especially alarmed that the use of live ammunition has allegedly caused a significant number of deaths across the country,” UN spokesman Rupert Colville said. With the information blackout he described it as “extremely difficult” to get an accurate overall death toll.
Iran loosens internet restrictions after protest shutdown - Iran began restoring internet access in the capital and a number of provinces after a five-day nationwide shutdown meant to help stifle deadly protests over fuel-price hikes. The country's elite Revolutionary Guard security force said calm had now returned across Iran on Thursday, state TV reported. "The internet is being gradually restored in the country," the semi-official news agency Fars reported, quoting unidentified "informed sources". The National Security Council that ordered the shutdown approved reactivating the internet in "some areas", it said. According to news reports, fixed-line internet was restored in Hormozgan, Kermanshah, Arak, Mashhad, Qom, Tabriz, Hamadan and Bushehr provinces, as well as parts of Tehran. "We again have internet as of an hour ago," a retired engineer, who declined to be named, said by telephone from the capital. Iran was rocked by nationwide protests sparked by growing anger and frustration after authorities rolled out a petrol-rationing scheme and slashed subsidies in a move that sent prices soaring by 50 percent. A top cyberspace security official in Iran told journalists on Thursday he believed the country's internet would be fully turned on "within the next two days".
Iran’s ‘only crime is we decided not to fold’ – Pepe Escobar - Just in time to shine a light on what’s behind the latest sanctions from Washington, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in a speech at the annual Astana Clubmeeting in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan delivered a searing account of Iran-US relations to a select audience of high-ranking diplomats, former Presidents and analysts.Zarif was the main speaker in a panel titled “The New Concept of Nuclear Disarmament.” Keeping to a frantic schedule, he rushed in and out of the round table to squeeze in a private conversation with Kazakh First President Nursultan Nazarbayev.During the panel, moderator Jonathan Granoff, President of the Global Security Institute, managed to keep a Pentagon analyst’s questioning of Zafir from turning into a shouting match.Previously, I had extensively discussed with Syed Rasoul Mousavi, minister for West Asia at the Iran Foreign Ministry, myriad details on Iran’s stance everywhere from the Persian Gulf to Afghanistan. I was at the James Bond-ish round table of the Astana Club, as I moderated two other panels, one on multipolar Eurasia and the post-INF environment and another on Central Asia (the subject of further columns).Zarif’s intervention was extremely forceful. He stressed how Iran “complied with every agreement and it got nothing;” how “our people believe we have not gained from being part of” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action; how inflation is out of control; how the value of the rial dropped 70% “because of ‘coercive measures’ – not sanctions because they are illegal.” He spoke without notes, exhibiting absolute mastery of the inextricable swamp that is US-Iran relations. It turned out, in the end, to be a bombshell. Here are highlights.
ISIS Secrets Spilled in Rare On-Camera Interviews: “We Just Walked Into Syria”— Over the years of the war in Syria, an overwhelming amount of evidence has amassed documenting that the so-called ‘Islamic State’ caliphate was established after tens of thousands of ISIS and other foreign fighters were allowed to pour across Turkey’s southern border into Syria. That NATO’s second largest military with the help of its allies such as the US, Britain, France, and Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar facilitated what the State Department in 2014 described as the largest mass movement of jihadist terrorists in modern history should be a scandal of monumental importance, yet the mainstream media predictably ignored it and “moved on.”And now more bombshell proof of state sponsorship behind the prior rapid rise of ISIS: below are details exposed during unprecedented on-camera interviews of imprisoned ISIS members in Syria spilling all. They confess openly that Turkish military and intelligence simply let them “just walk into Syria.” Award-winning journalist Lindsey Snell, who’s been widely published in outlets ranging from MSNBC to ABC to Foreign Policy and others, gained unprecedented access to ISIS prisoners at a facility administered by the Kurdish-led SDF in Hasakah province in northeast Syria: Abdullah granted us access to a prison in Hasakah that holds around 5,000 ISIS members from 28 different countries. We were able to spend five hours there, touring the various sections and interviewing ISIS militants. Abdullah’s first request to us was that we refrain from telling the prisoners that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS’ leader, had recently been killed in Idlib. “They don’t know. And no good will come from them knowing,” he said. Those interviewed confessed that their arrival in Syria years prior without doubt had the cooperation of Turkish authorities. Watch the interviews and video report here:
The Hugely Important OPCW Scandal Keeps Unfolding. Here's Why No One's Talking About It - Caitlin Johnstone - The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is now hemorrhaging evidence that the US and its allies deceived the world once again about yet another military intervention, which should be a front-page story all over the world. Yet if you looked at American news media headlines you’d think the only thing that matters right now is indulging the childish fantasy that Donald Trump might somehow magically be removed from office via supermajority consensus in a majority-Republican Senate. CounterPunch has published an actual bombshell of a report by journalist Jonathan Steele containing many revelations about the OPCW scandal which were previously unknown to the public. Steele is an award-winning reporter who worked as a senior foreign correspondent for The Guardian back before that outlet was purged of all critical thinkers on western imperialism; he first waded into the OPCW controversy last month with a statement made on the BBC revealing the existence of a second whistleblower on the organisation’s investigation into an alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma, Syria.If you haven’t been following this story you can click here for a timeline of events to fully appreciate the significance of these new revelations about the Douma incident, but just to quickly recap, in April of last year reports surfaced that dozens of civilians had been killed in that city by chemical weapons used by the Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad. This immediately drew skepticism from people who’ve been paying attention to the narrative manipulation campaign against Syria, since Assad had already won the battle for Douma and had no strategic reason to employ banned weapons there knowing that there would be a military strike in retaliation from western powers. True to form, a few days later the US, France and the UK launched airstrikes on the Syrian government.The OPCW released its final report on Douma in March of this year, but that report has been contradicted by two separate whistleblowers from the Douma investigation. The first surfaced in May of this year with a leaked Engineering Assessment claiming the chlorine cylinders found at the crime scene were unlikely to have been dropped from the air, and that it was far more likely that they were manually placed there, i.e. staged, by the occupying opposition forces in Douma. The second whistleblower came forward last month with a day-long presentation in Brussels before a panel of experts assembled by the whistleblowing defense group Courage Foundation, the findings of which were published by WikiLeaks.
Wide-Scale Israeli Strike On Damascus Kills 23 After Alleged Iranian Rocket Attack - During the night Tuesday Israel conducted a “wide-scale” strike on Syria, focused in and around Damascus, resulting in a soaring casualty count according to the AP."A Britain-based war monitoring group said the Israeli airstrikes killed 11 people, including seven non-Syrians who are most likely Iranians," the AP initially reported, though Syrian state media cited two civilians killed among multiple wounded. That number was revised Wednesday morning to at least 23 people, most said to be "non-Syrians" — likely Iranians, according to reports.The Israeli military said it had hit multiple targets belonging to Iran’s elite Quds force, specifically missile and weapons warehouses, after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said rockets were "fired at Israel by an Iranian force in Syria".International reports have described the attacks as the most intense since a similar operation last January. Over the past months what were previously somewhat frequent Israeli raids inside Syria had grown quiet. The Israeli military said its fighter jets hit multiple targets belonging to Iran’s elite Quds force, including surface-to-air missiles, weapons warehouses and military bases. After the Syrian military fired an air defense missile, the Israeli military said a number of Syrian aerial defense batteries were also destroyed. Damascus residents are outraged after a direct hit on a civilian home Wednesday night, which included children among the wounded, as the AP reports:Syria’s state SANA news agency said the two civilians were killed by shrapnel when an Israeli missile hit a house in the town of Saasaa, southwest of Damascus. It said several others were wounded, including a girl in a residential building in the suburb of Qudsaya, also west of the Syrian capital.Syrian air defenses were active during the assault, with the Syrian Army saying it downed multiple inbound Israeli rockets. Official media said Syrian anti-aircraft missiles were able to successfully "intercept and destroy most of the hostile missiles before reaching their targets."
Israeli airstrikes on Syria threaten wider Mideast war - The Israeli Air Force carried out a major assault on Syria in the early morning hours Wednesday, striking more than 20 targets on the outskirts of Damascus and leaving at least 23 people dead. Those killed in the air raids reportedly included Syrian government soldiers, allied militiamen and members of the Iranian Quds Force advisory mission sent to assist the government of President Bashar al-Assad in its eight-year-long war against Western-backed Islamist militias. At least two civilians were killed in the attacks—a tailor, Hayoub Safad, and his wife—when an Israeli missile destroyed their home. Several other civilians were wounded by shrapnel, including a young girl, whose home in the suburb of Qudsaya, west of the Syrian capital, was hit, the Syrian state government news agency SANA reported. The Israeli government cast the onslaught as retaliation for the firing of four missiles from Syria into the Israeli-occupied Syrian territory of the Golan Heights on Tuesday. Those missiles, however, had themselves been launched in response to an Israeli attack the day before on a convoy of vehicles belonging to a Shia militia aligned with Iran in eastern Syria. The Israeli aggression in Syria came amid signs of an escalation of the US campaign against Iran, which Washington has targeted as a principal obstacle to its drive to assert unhindered US imperialist hegemony over the oil-rich Middle East. An aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln sailed through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf on Tuesday. The 21-mile-wide waterway is almost entirely in Iran’s territorial waters and is a choke point for the transit of one-fifth of the world’s oil trade and one-third of its liquefied natural gas. A series of recent incidents in close proximity to the Strait, including attacks on tankers as well as the downing of a US drone in June and the ordering of US retaliatory air strikes called off by US President Donald Trump at the last minute, have sharpened tensions in the area. This was followed by devastating strikes on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September, for which Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, while Washington blamed them on Tehran. Trump Tuesday addressed a letter to the US House and Senate informing them—in what passes for compliance with the War Powers Act—that another 3,000 US troops are being sent into Saudi Arabia. The latest US military deployment in the Middle East is part of a continuous escalation by Washington since last May, when it dispatched an aircraft carrier battle group, an air strike group led by nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and additional US troops to the region, supposedly in response to threats from Iran.
US says Israeli settlements are no longer illegal - The US has shifted its position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, no longer viewing them as inconsistent with international law. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the status of the West Bank was for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate. Israel welcomed the move - a reversal of the US stance under President Donald Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama. Settlements are communities established by Israel on land occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. They have long been a source of dispute between Israel and the international community, and the Palestinians. "After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate," Mr Pompeo told reporters, "the United States has concluded that "the establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent with international law". "Calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law hasn't worked. It hasn't advanced the cause of peace," he added. Can the Jewish settlement issue be resolved? Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said the US decision was a risk to "global stability, security, and peace" and said it threatened to replace international law with "the law of the jungle".
Russia Slams US Backing For Israeli Settlements As New Dangerous Escalation - Reuters reports that Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday condemned the US move to reverse decades-long official policy which viewed Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal. “The Trump administration is reversing the Obama administration’s approach towards Israeli settlements. U.S. public statements on settlement activities in the West Bank have been inconsistent over decades,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday, effectively overturning the State Department's 41-year-old legal opinion that Israel's West Bank settlements are illegal. Russia condemned the drastic policy reversal as a severe blow to the peace process, saying "We consider this Washington’s decision as another step aimed at ruining an international legal basis of the Middle East settlement that will exacerbate tensions in Palestinian-Israeli relations," according to the foreign ministry statement. "We are urging all concerned parties to refrain from any steps that could provoke a new dangerous escalation in the region and impede the creation of conditions for resuming direct Palestinian-Israeli talks," the statement emphasized. Russia underscored it still sees as valid and binding the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 which states that "the establishment by Israel of settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, has no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-State [Palestine-Israel] solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace."
Trump is systematically ending the viability of a future Palestinian state - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement on Monday – that the US will no longer consider Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories a violation of international law – is, in many ways, a near-perfect encapsulation of the Trump administration’s approach to Israel-Palestine. Couched in grotesque doublespeak, it claims to advance “the cause of peace” while signaling US approval of Israel’s brutal, perpetual military rule over the roughly 3 million Palestinians living in the West Bank. It is part and parcel of the Trump administration’s ongoing, concerted efforts to undermine international legal frameworks for addressing human rights violations (and not just in Israel-Palestine). And it is yet more proof, not that more was needed, that the Trump administration is actively pursuing a post-two-state-solution agenda.Indeed, for an administration marked by erratic decision-making and sudden reversals, Trump’s has been thoroughly systematic when it comes to ending the viability of a future Palestinian state. This, of course, is no surprise. In a clear harbinger of what was to come,rightwing pro-Israel operatives close to Donald Trump – among them David Friedman, now US ambassador to Israel, and Jason Greenblatt, former special envoy to the Middle East – successfully removed support for a two-state solution from the 2016 Republican party’s platform. Since its inauguration, the Trump administration has taken draconian measures against key Palestinian institutions, from shuttering the PLO office in Washington to slashing funding to UNRWA, the UN body that distributes vital aid to over 5 million Palestinian refugees across the Arab world. In 2018, the Trump administration moved the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. (East Jerusalem, which Israel unilaterally annexed in 1967 and which the international community considers unlawfully occupied, was once intended as the capital of a future Palestinian state.) Last March, President Trump formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights – occupied by Israel in 1967 and, in violation of international law, unilaterally annexed in 1981.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicted on charges of bribery, fraud, breach of trust - The Washington Post — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was formally charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust on Thursday, making him the first Israeli premier to be indicted while in office and sending Israel’s already stalemated political system into further disarray.Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit capped almost three years of investigation and months of speculation by handing down a 63-page indictment against the country’s longest-serving prime minister and its center of political gravity for the last decade.The cases against Netanyahu center on allegations that the prime minister and his wife, Sara, accepted more than $260,000 worth of luxury goods in exchange for political favors and that Netanyahu interceded with regulators and lawmakers on behalf of two media companies in exchange for positive news stories.ADNetanyahu, 70, has steadfastly denied wrongdoing during a wide-ranging probe that he has dismissed as a politically motivated “witch hunt.”In October, the prime minister’s legal team spent four marathon days in front of prosecutors arguing that the charges should be reduced or dismissed, an effort that apparently had little effect.“I made this decision with a heavy heart but with a whole heart and a sense of commitment to the rule of law,” Mandelblit said at a news conference aired live on Israeli television. “Law enforcement is not a discretionary matter. It is an obligation that is imposed on us. It is my duty to the citizens of Israel to ensure that they live in a country where no one is above the law and that suspicions of corruption are thoroughly investigated.”Few here expect the pugnacious prime minister to do anything other than ferociously fight the counts that emerged. Many predict he will seek a vote in parliament granting him some measure of immunity. In a combative address Thursday night, Netanyahu called the indictment “a coup attempt” driven by a corrupt set of prosecutors. He demanded that an independent body to review the prosecution. Of immediate concern is how the indictments will scramble his standing in Israel’s chaotic political standoff.“We are in a historical and unprecedented situation with new legal questions almost every day,” said Suzie Navot, a professor of constitutional law at the Haim Striks Law School in Rishon LeZion.
Israeli PM Netanyahu defiant after being charged with corruption - A defiant Benjamin Netanyahu rejected all allegations of graft on Thursday, vowing to stay on as the leader in Israel despite being indicted on a series of corruption charges. Netanyahu denounced what he called the "false" and "politically motivated" allegations, hours after being charged by the attorney general with bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He denied all wrongdoing. "What is going on here is an attempt to stage a coup against the prime minister," Netanyahu said. "The object of the investigations was to oust the right-wing from government." Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced the indictment earlier on Thursday, calling it a "heavy-hearted decision" based only on solid legal evidence. But Netanyahu said the investigators "weren't after the truth, they were after me". In a 15-minute speech, Netanyahu railed against his political rivals and state institutions, accusing the police and judiciary of bias. The veteran politician argued it was time for an "investigation of the investigators". He vowed to continue on as prime minister despite potential court dates and intense political pressure. "I will continue to lead this country, according to the letter of the law," he said. "I will not allow lies to win." Political chaos The charges raise more uncertainty over who will ultimately lead a country mired in political chaos after two inconclusive elections this year. Israeli law does not require Netanyahu to step down from the post of prime minister if indicted. The entire process of an indictment and trial could take two years. As prime minister, he would only be forced to resign from the post if he is eventually convicted, where he could face up to 10 years in prison and/or a fine for bribery charges alone, while fraud and breach of trust carry a prison sentence of up to three years. Hugh Lovatt, Israel-Palestine analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the indictment may still not be "the end of the story". "Israel will now have to brace for a political roller-coaster ride over the coming months. Now more than ever Netanyahu will be fighting for his political and personal life," The allegations against Netanyahu range from receiving gifts worth thousands of dollars to a deal to change regulatory frameworks in favour of a media group in exchange for favourable press coverage. Case 1,000 alleges Netanyahu and his wife wrongfully received gifts from Arnon Milchan, a Hollywood producer and Israeli citizen, as well as from Australian billionaire James Packer, in return for political favours.
Leaked Chinese Government Documents Prove Muslims Are Being Detained In Massive Numbers - There's now substantial evidence - in the Chinese government's own words - that they are detaining Muslims in massive numbers. 403 pages of internal documents have been leaked to the New York Times that describe a clampdown in Xinjiang - a resource-rich territory located on the border of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia - where authorities have "corralled as many as a million ethnic Uighurs, Kazakhs and others into internment camps and prisons over the past three years." In Xinjiang, Muslim ethnic minority groups make up more than half the region's population of 25 million. The largest group is the Uighurs. Beijing has fought with the Uighurs for decades, who have offered resistance to Chinese rule. The current crackdown began after a surge of antigovernment and anti-Chinese violence, including ethnic riots in 2009 in Urumqi, the regional capital, and a May 2014 attack on an outdoor market that killed 39 people just days before Mr. Xi convened a leadership conference in Beijing to set a new policy course for Xinjiang. The Chinese government has called these camps "job training centers" to fight Islamic extremism, but the documents seem to confirm the coercive nature of the crackdown in the words of the Chinese government. The campaign is being called "ruthless and extraordinary". Senior party leaders are recorded ordering "drastic and urgent" action, including mass detentions. The leaked papers show how the country carried out its "most far-reaching internment campaign since the Mao era."
China's Annual Aluminum Consumption To Decline For First Time In 30 Years - China's economy is quickly decelerating, and data last month shows GDP could slip under 6% in 2020.A structural decline, blended with a global synchronized slowdown, and accelerated by trade tensions with the US, have been blamed for China's deteriorating industrial sector.New evidence from research firm Antaike, via Reuters, shows China's aluminum consumption is likely to decline for the first time in 30 years as domestic demand plunges and exports slump. Antaike's senior analyst Shen Lingyan stated at a conference in China's Qingdao city on Wednesday that consumption of aluminum in China would be around 36.55 million tons this year, down 1.2% YoY. October export data of China's unwrought aluminum fell to 431,000 tons, the lowest levels since February.The output of aluminum in China this year has recorded the sharpest decline on record, down 1.6% to 36 million tons, Shen told the conference.Shen forecasts a 3% increase in aluminum output in 2020 to 37.2 million tons -- though there are currently no signs the global economy is bottoming.Factory activity in China contracted for a sixth straight month in October. It's likely that in the coming quarters, GDP will dive under 6% as cooling in the manufacturing sector continues.China Association of Automobile Manufacturer has said the decline of aluminum demand could be linked to the weak automobile sector.When the world's top aluminum producer records the first consumption decline in nearly three decades -- this should mean the global economy continues to worsen. As for the global rebound in the economy, one where equity markets around the world have already priced in, it seems that China is no longer able to reflate its all too critical credit impulse, which means the 2016-style rebound everyone was expecting might not exactly happen in early 2020.
VW and Chinese partners announce $4.4 billion spending plan for 2020 -Volkswagen Group said Thursday that, together with its Chinese partners, it will invest around 4 billion euros ($4.43 billion) in China next year, with almost half of the cash to be spent on developing e-mobility. VW claims that the German firm now accounts for almost every fifth car sold in China. The automaker was a pioneer of manufacturing in China, first establishing contact in the late 1970s. VW now has large joint venture partnerships with Chinese firms SAIC Motor and FAW Group.The announcement detailed that around 40% of the 4 billion euro investment is going towards e-mobility. The firm’s electrification strategy in China is being concentrated on manufacturing all-electric cars in two factories in Foshun and Shanghai. The manufacturer says by October 2020, the two factories combined will reach a capacity of 600,000 e-cars per year.The firm wants to produce 30 different types of electric car in China within the next six years.The CEO of Volkswagen Group China, Stephan Wollenstein, said in a statement Thursday that success in e-mobility “will be a key driver for reaching our sustainability target, becoming net carbon neutral by 2050.” Volkswagen Group China claims it has delivered 3.34 million vehicles to be sold in China so far this year. The division added that it had increased its market share to 19.5% from 18.5% in 2018.
Numbers show joke is on the US, not Huawei – The listed Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies was made an international pariah by US regulators earlier this year after a ban on buying key parts and on access to crucial markets. You think that sounded the death knell for the company? Think again. This week, Huawei announced a US$286 million bonuses bonanza to its employees. Its bonds continue to trade above par, and its cash balances are massive. Hardly the signs of a company struggling under sanctions. The company has repeatedly denied US allegations that it is a front for the Chinese government – the justification Washington cited for banning US companies from using Huawei-manufactured gear. Huawei is the world’s biggest telecom equipment maker and it’s the second biggest smartphone maker. According to data from International Data Corporation, smartphone shipments in the July-September quarter rose 18.6% to 66.6 million, just behind global leader Samsung’s 78.2 million. “Huawei has been gaining market share in China and overseas despite US trade war frictions and may become the leading smartphone maker in the next two quarters,” said Nitin Soni, director of corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings. He said telcos across emerging markets, which are facing capital expenditure pressures and limited 5G business viability in the short term, may be willing to buy Huawei’s 5G equipment given it is cheaper and has better technology than European counterparts. It’s not just Soni. Industry leaders also acknowledge Huawei’s quality standards. Indian telco Bharti Enterprises’ chairman Sunil Mittal said recently, for example, “I can safely say their products in 3G and 4G that we have experienced are significantly superior to Ericsson and Nokia. I use all three of them.” Indeed, the bond-market performance of the unrated, unlisted company confirms Huawei’s strength. Its dollar-denominated bonds traded in global markets are changing hands at above par, indicating bond investors are confident about the company’s cash position and liquidity situation. Its bonds due 2025, which pay a coupon of 4.125%, are trading at a price of $104 while the holder would only get $100 at maturity. The premium would be compensated by the annual coupon, which would reduce the yield. The bonds are currently yielding 3.4% compared with the 4.25% yield at the time of the issuance. In price terms the bonds have rallied from $99 in 2015 to $104. Prices move inversely to yields.
Embarrassing mistake: Chinese magazine ‘accidentally’ reveals new top secret weapon - A centrefold graphic recently flourished intimate details of a Chinese bomber carrying a stark new weapon. State-controlled media has since gone into cover-up mode. But military analysts think Beijing may have been caught with its pants down.The government produced Modern Ships magazine has splashed high-resolution computer-generated images of China’s most recent addition to its strategic bomber line-up – the H-6N – over the front and feature pages. But that’s not what drew the eye of the world’s defence thinkers. The graphics showed the new bomber carrying a huge ballistic missile slung under its fuselage. And that missile looks a lot like one of a family of ballistic weapons deployed by China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) as aircraft carrier killers. The bomber pictured looks to be carrying a huge ballistic missile unlike any China has produced before. Picture: SuppliedSource:Supplied Beijing’s state-controlled Global Times immediately went into damage controlmode, declaring, “The images are computer generated, merely conceptual and have no official background.” But there’s far more to the story than the detailed conceptual images. And this may confirm Western defence analysts’ worst fears. “If (this) is correct then this would be an impressive anti-ship standoff capability for the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), that would extend the utility of the DF-21D out well beyond the first island chain,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Malcolm Davis told Flight Global.
Furious China Shadows Two US Warships Sailing Through Disputed Waters, Warns Them To Leave -- China is again furious after the US sailed several warships through the heavily disputed waters in the South China Sea, military sources told Reuters. The move by the US has escalated tensions between both countries, already tense as the latest round of trade talks have fallen apart, and the signing of the phase one trade deal has likely been delayed. The USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS-10), an Independence-class littoral combat ship, on Wednesday sailed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef, a militarized island in the South China Sea operated by China. Then on Thursday, USS Wayne E. Meyer, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, sailed through the Paracel islands in the South China Sea. "These missions are based in the rule of law and demonstrate our commitment to upholding the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations," Commander Reann Mommsen, a spokeswoman for the US Navy's Seventh Fleet, told Reuters. China's People's Liberation Army shadowed the two US warships as they both transited through the disputed waters, and "warned them to leave." China's military warned the US has to stop sending warships near its militarized islands to "avoid the happening of any mishap." "The US has kept sending naval vessels to stir up trouble in the South China Sea under the pretext of freedom of navigation," a statement from the Chinese military, with the Southern Theatre Command said. "We call on the US to stop such provocative acts to avoid the happening of any mishap."
China Sails Carrier Strike Group Through Taiwan Straight After US Navy Transited Contested Waters - A Chinese aircraft carrier fleet has sailed through the highly contested waters in the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, just days after a US warship transited the region, reported Reuters. China's first domestically built aircraft carrier, known as the Type 002, was accompanied by a strike group as it sailed through the waterway from the East China Sea into the strait on Sunday, the Defense Ministry in Taipei said in a statement. Last Tuesday, the US Navy sent the USS Chancellorsville, a guided-missile cruiser, on a "routine Taiwan Strait transit," the navy said.As a result of Type 002 and its strike group transiting the strait, Taiwanese military authorities scrambled fighter jets to monitor the continuing situation. Taiwan says China carrier group sailed through Taiwan Strait, jets scrambled https://t.co/GTueA7Zv5K pic.twitter.com/dmG78blxLL— CNA (@ChannelNewsAsia) November 17, 2019 China's latest move came as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen named former Prime Minister William Lai as her running mate for the 2020 election. Lai has previously angered Beijing for supporting the island nation's independence.
China Gives Japan, Korea Ultimatum On Hosting US Missiles After INF Collapse - The major Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun revealed this week that Chinese officials issued a stern to warning to Japan and South Korea against any move to host intermediate-range missiles on their soil. Citing both Japanese and US sources, the newspaper said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued the message to his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in August — an action apparently triggered by President Trump's announced official withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia. Given a key administration criticism of the INF is that it doesn't account for developing technology and advanced missiles of major powers like China, Beijing is said to be worried over the fallout of a potential new US-Russia arms race for southeast Asia. According to the report: With the INF now invalidated, Beijing is concerned that Washington plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Japan and South Korea where they would be capable of reaching China. Foreign Minister Wang reportedly told then Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Taro Kono: “If the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Japan, that would have a major effect on Japan-China relations” — a message also relayed in a separate bilateral meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. Japan's Kono reportedly responded firmly with “Chinese missiles are capable of hitting Japan, so China must first work toward reducing its arsenal.”
PLA soldiers sent onto streets of Hong Kong for first time since protests began – to help clear roadblocks near Kowloon Tong garrison - Chinese soldiers marched out of their barracks for the first time in more than five months of civil unrest in Hong Kong to help clear roadblocks and debris left by radical protesters. Unarmed and dressed in plain clothes, about 50 soldiers in two neatly arrayed files strode out of the Kowloon East barracks at about 4pm. They immediately began to clear Renfrew Road, which the barracks share with Baptist University’s campus. One of the soldiers said their action had nothing to do with the Hong Kong government. “We volunteered! Stopping violence and ending chaos is our responsibility,” he said, quoting a phrase used by President Xi Jinping. Joined by dozens of local residents, firefighters and police officers, the soldiers made quick work of the roadblocks, barbed wire and bricks left behind by protesters earlier. At 5pm, they regrouped and marched back to their barracks, shouting patriotic slogans in unison.
Anti-mask law to quell Hong Kong protests ruled unconstitutional by High Court A Hong Kong court has ruled in favour of pan-democrats in declaring the government’s mask ban unconstitutional in a decision that forced police to halt law enforcement while legal experts in mainland China floated the possibility of another legal interpretation by Beijing. Two High Court judges on Monday ruled that the emergency legislation that brought the ban on face coverings in public places into effect last month was “incompatible with the Basic Law” when used in times of public danger as seen in the present case. They also found the new law had imposed invalid restrictions on fundamental rights and freedoms. The ruling by justices Anderson Chow Ka-ming and Godfrey Lam Wan-ho, in favour of the 25 pan-democrats who applied for judicial review, dealt a blow to the beleaguered city government. Police announced they would stop enforcing the ban for now, while prosecutors sought adjournment “to consider the situation”. Legal experts were divided, some calling the judgment an important recognition of Hong Kong’s constitutional framework, while those on the mainland expressed concerns that the court might have sent the wrong signal to the radical protesters, floating the idea of Beijing interpreting the Basic Law again.
Hong Kong protests: police use controversial anti-riot sound device for first time, rejecting claims it is harmful - Police’s Unimog armoured vehicle has a long-range acoustic device fitted on its roof. Police’s Unimog armoured vehicle has a long-range acoustic device fitted on its roof. Photo: Sam Tsang Hong Kong police have for the first time used a controversial anti-riot sound device they bought 10 years ago, rejecting claims by activists that it is a weapon that can cause harm. A low-frequency “woo-woo” sound could be heard coming from a police armoured vehicle on Sunday, according to reporters covering intense clashes between radical anti-government demonstrators and police near Polytechnic University in Hung Hom. A police spokesman confirmed the force had deployed a long-range acoustic device (LRAD), installed on top of a Unimog armoured vehicle, to issue warnings to rioters. He said the device could convey important messages over a long distance in a noisy environment and that the force stressed that it was not a weapon but a broadcasting system. “Unlike what is said in individual media reports, the LRAD does not generate ultra-low frequency sound which will cause dizziness, nausea or a loss of sense of direction,” the spokesman said. He said such rumours were false and the force had strict guidelines and regulations on using the system. The government said in 2012 that when it purchased the Unimog in 2009, two LRADs with an effective transmission range of about 300 metres (984 feet) were also bought. It said the LRADs came with an “alert tone” function, which was similar to the siren used by police and the fire service, with a frequency within the normal hearing range of people.
Hong Kong Polytechnic University: 100 protesters still inside as standoff continues - About 100 protesters remain barricaded inside a Hong Kong university campus surrounded by police, as the standoff enters a third day. Protesters inside Polytechnic University are said to be running low on supplies, with one lawmaker saying they could not last "another day". Those inside expect to be arrested and charged with rioting if they walk out. The university has turned into a battleground as anti-government protests show no signs of slowing down. Tensions could be further inflamed by China condemning a decision by Hong Kong's high court to overturn a ban on face-masks. On Sunday night, police warned protesters they had until 22:00 (14:00 GMT) to leave the campus, saying they could use live ammunition if the attacks continued. Police later moved in, surrounding the campus, leading to protesters throwing petrol bombs and firing rocks from catapults. On Monday, dozens of protesters were arrested by police officers as they attempted to run from the campus. A small group managed to leave using rope ladders before being picked up by motorcycles. Those arrested could be charged with rioting, which carries a penalty of up to 10 years in prison. The violence at PolyU is one of the biggest flare-ups Hong Kong has seen since protests broke out in June. The mostly young protesters have five key demands including an investigation into police brutality and universal suffrage. But underpinning it all is the fear Hong Kong's unique identity is threatened by China. An estimated 100 protesters still remain in PolyU, authorities have said. But a handful of protesters have been trickling out of the university, some suffering from hypothermia and leg injuries, according to news site SCMP. One protester said he decided to come out due to "hunger and cold", adding that many inside were "hurt without enough medical supplies". Pro-democracy lawmaker Ted Hui had earlier said protesters did not have enough supplies to "last another day". Another 16-year-old protester told Reuters that she chose to "surrender". "We have been trying to escape since yesterday morning. But then we couldn't find a way out [and] were afraid of being charged," she said. "This is the only way... I was quite desperate." Protesters receive medical attention at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University campus during protests in Hong Kong
Hong Kong protests: university campus stand-off between radicals and riot squad shows no sign of ending as thousands hit streets in bid to relieve police siege The stand-off between radical protesters barricaded inside Hong Kong Polytechnic University and riot police threatening mass arrests continued without a solution into the early hours of Tuesday. About 40 injured activists were allowed to leave the campus to get treatment, although they might still face charges later. Others, except for accredited journalists, were told they would be arrested once they stepped out. A police source said those who surrendered without a fight could expect lenient punishment, but all entrapped protesters had to answer to the law. With police showing no intention of storming the campus and besieged activists unwilling to give up, a stalemate ensued. Former Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and University of Hong Kong legal scholar Eric Cheung Tat-ming entered the PolyU campus with a police escort at around 11pm. When asked about the visit, Tsang said he was there to “help those who want to leave”. Earlier attempts by various groups to negotiate a peaceful solution failed. University board directors, teachers, parents and lawmakers trying to enter the campus were turned back by officers. At nightfall, thousands of the radicals’ supporters who gathered in Jordan and Tsim Sha Tsui tried to relieve the police siege by force. They battled riot officers in the bustling streets of central Kowloon throughout the night, with tear gas and petrol bombs exchanged at rapid intervals.
China Slams US-UK Blatant Interference In HK As University Standoff Ends Violently -Beijing yet again slammed London and Washington for meddling in its domestic affairs after Western politicians and media have backed besieged university student protesters holed up at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University following the past days of violent clashes with police. The standoff has grabbed world headlines for its escalating violence, including students using bows & arrows, molotov cocktails, bricks and javelins against police, and after one officer was pierced through the leg with an arrow.China’s ambassador to London Liu Xiaoming on Monday said “Some Western countries have publicly supported extreme violent offenders,” at a press conference at the Chinese embassy in London. “The U.S. House of Representatives adopted the so-called Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act to blatantly interfere in Hong Kong affairs, which are China’s internal affairs,” he said. “The British government and the foreign affairs committee of the House of Commons published China-related reports making irresponsible remarks on Hong Kong.”“I think when the British government criticizes Hong Kong police, criticizes the Hong Kong government in handling the situation, they are interfering into China’s internal affairs,” the ambassador continued. He also took UK officials to task for presenting a false neutrality, arguing that when HK police officers are attacked with deadly weapons London takes a stance of urging "all sides" to cease violence. A prior Foreign Office spokesman had stated, “The UK is seriously concerned by the escalation in violence from both the protesters and the authorities around Hong Kong university campuses,”
Deathly Silence: An Inside Look at Kashmir - Der Spiegel - The first thing that comes as a surprise to a visitor is just how quiet it is. You can see people on the streets, but shops and offices are all closed. Officially, the schools are open, but the classrooms are largely empty because many boys and girls stay home out of fear. Someone has painted the message "We exist to resist" on the shutter of a shopfront. The Indian government insists that the situation in Kashmir is returning to normal. Or at least what could be considered normal in a region where roads are blocked with sandbags and barbed wire, where passerby are monitored by soldiers in bunkers and where more than 400 people lost their lives last year due to terrorism and state violence. Three months have now passed since India revoked the special status granted to its part of Kashmir. Earlier this month, the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the further step of dividing the once semi-autonomous state into two federal territories and placing them under the control of New Delhi. Hundreds of politicians were arrested and remain behind bars. India had offered them freedom, but only if they agreed to refrain from speaking about the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy for an entire year. Foreigners and Indian opposition leaders have been banned from traveling to Kashmir. The first foreigners allowed to enter the region recently were 23 members of the European Parliament, who visited in late October. Most were members of right-wing populist parties, including from the Alternative for Germany party. The Kashmir conflict has generated less attention in Europe than the protests in Hong Kong, yet it is the far more dangerous of the two crises. India, Pakistan and China all lay claim to a part of Kashmir, meaning three nuclear powers are playing tug-o'-war over the region. Pakistan has already warned about potential consequences, while the Indian defense minister has said that India would stick to the No First Use doctrine when it comes to using nuclear weapons, but what happens in the future would depend on circumstances.Very little, however, has been heard from the people of Jammu and Kashmir themselves. After a weeks-long blackout imposed by New Delhi, landline and mobile telephones now work in the region once again. But the internet is still shut down. DER SPIEGEL has met with more than a dozen people in Kashmir, and their reports are shocking and sometimes contradictory. Some fear the Indian state. Others are hoping for protection. All, however, are afraid of what may be on the horizon. One says: "We are experiencing the calm before the storm."
West African Coastal States Are Failing To Curb The World's Biggest Piracy Problem -Pirates are thriving off of the coast of West Africa, despite what is supposed to be a concerted effort to prevent them. And with business starting to boom in areas like Togo, dealing with the threat has become more important than ever. The coastline's failure to coordinate a unified response is allowing the attacks to continue, Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe told Bloomberg. Earlier this month, pirates boarded two ships off the coast of Togo, marking the latest attacks in an area where piracy is rampant: the Gulf of Guinea between Senegal and Angola. 15 states and western partners signed a pact in 2013 to collaborate against piracy in the area, but the region still accounts for 40% of the world's reported piracy incidents. Togolese forces are left to pursue pirates in their own waters, which span a coastline of about 31 miles. They often need to hand over the chases to neighboring states to pursue pirates, but cooperation is spotty between states.Gnassingbe said: “Individually countries are doing what needs to be done. Where we are a little bit weak is how to cooperate. We need to cooperate and take some measures.”
The Eighteenth Brumaire of Macho Camacho: on the Coup in Bolivia On Sunday, October 20, 2019. Evo Morales, leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) sought a fourth mandate, having been president since early 2006. Morales arrived at the Palacio Quemado, or the Burnt Palace as the presidential residency is known, with 54 percent of the popular vote, riding a left-indigenous cycle of quasi-insurrectionary proportions between 2000 and 2005. Since then, he won a number of elections and plebiscites, all with more than 60 percent of the popular vote, and with dramatic distance between him and his leading opponents. But this year was different, and predictably so. For the first time, the ballot would be relatively polarized, drawing what had been for years a regionally fragmented and hapless right-wing oppositional spectrum behind Carlos Mesa, former Vice President under Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, or Goni, and President between 2003 and 2005 following Goni’s ouster in the wake of mass popular demonstrations. Mesa leads the Comunidad Cuidadana (Citizen Community) coalition and embodies what Tariq Ali has called the extreme center. Congenitally ineffectual, after October 20, he was swept aside with breath-taking speed by a preposterously far right figure, Luis Fernando Camacho, the bible-toting president of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee, who self-identifies as Macho Camacho. Crucially, Morales’s popularity had suffered since he lost a popular referendum on February 21, 2016 – 51 percent of voters said “no” in the wake of scandals and allegations of corruption – over whether the constitution should be amended to allow him to run for a fourth term in the October elections in 2019. Through a series of legally dubious manoeuvres that many analysts correctly anticipated, he ignored these results and was approved to run by the relevant state authority –this went uncontested at the time. According to Bolivia’s electoral system, to avoid a second round, the leading candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the vote, or more than 40 percent of the vote and a lead of 10 percent over the second-place candidate. On the evening of October 20, the “quick count” tally – or the Transmisión de Resultados Electorales Preliminares (Transmission of Preliminary Electoral Results, TREP), which is not legally binding – was updated regularly on the website of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). With 83.8 percent of the quick-count votes tallied, the TSE’s website indicated that Morales was leading with 45.3 percent, with Mesa in second place with 38.2 percent. It appeared as though there would be a second round. At this point, the TSE inexplicably shut down live transmission of the quick-count tabulation of ballots after the 83 percent of votes had been counted, which prompted Mesa to claim fraud.
In Bolivia, an interim leader is leaving her conservative mark WaPo - Before she proclaimed herself Bolivia’s new president and greeted cheering supporters in La Paz with a Bible in hand, Jeanine Áñez made a public promise. Her “only objective” as interim leader, the 52-year old conservative pledged, would be to call new elections. Yet in the week since the formerly obscure senator assumed power, Áñez has acted like anything but a caretaker. She’s been putting her own ideological stamp on South America’s poorest nation as she pursues the opposition’s long-held dream of undoing nearly 14 years of socialist rule under former president Evo Morales. In just seven days, the U.S.-backed leader has replaced Bolivia’s top military brass, cabinet ministers and the heads of major state-owned companies with appointees of her own. Her administration has threatened to arrest “seditious” lawmakers, and ejected allies of the old government including Venezuelan diplomats and Cuban doctors. Her new foreign minister announced Bolivia’s exit from the Alliance for the Peoples of Our America, a union of socialist nations based in Caracas. As supporters of Morales took to the streets last week to object, Áñez issued a presidential decree granting security forces immunity from prosecution for “participating in operations to reestablish internal order.” Within hours, a confrontation between soldiers and Morales supporters near Cochabamba left nine dead. Áñez stepped in last week after the sudden resignation of Morales and other senior socialists amid accusations of election fraud. Lawmakers from Morales’ Movement for Socialism party still hold legislative majorities in La Paz, but they boycotted a session called by the opposition to choose a successor. In the absence of a quorum, the opposition backed Áñez, the fiercely anti-Morales vice president of the senate. The United States, among other nations, quickly welcomed her. Others, including Mexico and Cuba, did not.
“We are Going to Resist Until the Last consequences”: Bolivians Bravely Fight Back Against Coup - Despite brutal repression, thousands of Bolivians remain on the streets to reject the civic-military coup carried out against the government of Evo Morales. It has been five days since the violent, racist coup d’état forced the resignation of President Evo Morales and Vice-president Álvaro García Linera. Since then, the people of Bolivia and the world have remained firm in their resistance against the coup and in defense of Morales and the process of change in the country. Across Bolivia, people are facing heavy repression from the Armed Forces, the Police and fascist groups but still they remain determined both on the streets and within institutional spaces to reject and fight back against the coup. The city El Alto, which neighbors the capital La Paz and whose inhabitants are mostly Indigenous and working class, has been the center of the mobilizations in support of Morales. Protesters have been marching from El Alto to the capital daily to demand the resignation of the opposition senator Jeanine Áñez, who proclaimed herself ‘interim president’ on November 12. Protesters have also erected road blockades surrounding the capital in order to stop the flow of supplies into the city and several hundreds have begun a protest-camp outside Plaza Murillo where the major government buildings are located, including Congress and the Presidential Palace.The Executive Committee of the United Trade Union Confederation of Bolivia (CSUTCB), the Trade Union Confederation of Intercultural Communities of Bolivia, the Peasant Workers Federation ‘Ponchos Rojos’, the Six Federations of the Tropic of Cochabamba, among others, have manifested their complete support to Morales and his process of change. They have said that these demonstrations would not stop until Morales could resume his position as President of the Plurinational State in Bolivia.
Exclusive: Haiti’s president warns of humanitarian crisis, calls for support (Reuters) - Haiti needs international support to tackle an unfolding humanitarian crisis, President Jovenel Moise said in an interview, two months into anti-government protests that have exacerbated food insecurity in the Americas’ poorest nation. Moise also told Reuters he was holding closed-door talks with civil society groups and the private sector, as well as radical and moderate members of the opposition in a bid to break political gridlock by creating a government of unity. However the 51-year-old president - who faces widespread anger over galloping inflation, rampant insecurity and allegations of corruption - would not say with whom he was talking. Haiti’s leading opposition parties have for months said the time for dialogue is over. “We are in the midst of a humanitarian crisis,” Moise said in the interview on Friday in the garden of his home in the hillside suburb of Petionville, overlooking Port-au-Prince and the Caribbean sea. “We need international support to get through this crisis.” More than one-in-three Haitians need urgent assistance to meet their daily food requirements, meaning nearly 3.7 million people, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) said earlier this month.
World Trade Barometer Suggests Global Economy Continues To Plunge As Trade War Takes Toll - The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a new report Monday that warns global merchandise trade in goods will plunge through this quarter amid no resolution to the trade war, along with the continuation of a worldwide synchronized slowdown that shows no signs of abating in the near term. The Geneva-based intergovernmental organization's leading-indicator called the Goods Trade Barometer printed at 96.6 for Sept., down from 95.7 in Jun. Readings under 100 recommend below-trend expansion is present. In Sept., WTO economists downgraded global trade growth expectations for 2019 to 1.2 %, down from a 2.6% forecast in Apr. The deceleration of slowing global growth was attributed to "increased tariffs, Brexit-related uncertainty, and the shifting monetary policy stance in developed economies," WTO analysts said.Year-on-year growth in world merchandise trade volume has stalled in recent quarters, as new evidence shows a decline could be seen in early 2020. Airfreight, electronic components, and raw materials "have all deteriorated further below trend," the report showed. "Indices for export orders (97.5), automotive products (99.8), and container shipping (100.8) have firmed up into on-trend territory. However, the indices for international air freight (93.0), electronic components (88.2), and raw materials (91.4) have all deteriorated further below trend. Electronic components trade was weakest of all, possibly reflecting recent tariff hikes affecting the sector."
Global Debt To Hit All Time High $255 Trillion, 330% Of World GDP - There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and that global debt will keep rising in perpetuity. Addressing the third, yesterday the Institute of International Finance reported that global debt has now hit $250 trillion and is expected to hit a record $255 trillion at the end of 2019, up $12 trillion from $243 trillion at the end of 2018, and nearly $32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet. "With few signs of slowdown in the pace of debt accumulation, we estimate that global debt will surpass $255 trillion this year," the IIF said in the report. The surge was driven by a $7.5 trillion surge in the first half of the year which was used to reverse the global slowdown that sent stocks into a bear market in 2018, and which shows no signs of slowing. Around 60% of that jump came from the United States and China. Government debt alone is set to top $70 trillion this year, as will overall debt (government, corporate and financial sector) of emerging-market countries. The total debt breakdown as of Dec. 31 is as follows:
- Household debt: $47.9 trillion
- Non-financial corporate: $75.7 trillion
- Government: $70 trillion
- Financial corporate: $61.7 trillion
And this is what the total debt picture was like at the start of the century, 20 years ago... ... and again today: This amounts to a grand total of just over $255 trillion, roughly equivalent to a record 330% of global GDP.
“The UN Is Being Turned into a Public-Private Partnership”: Harris Gleckman Explains Stealth Takeover by World Economic Forum - (video & transcript) Yves here. It is exciting to see Lynn Fries, a Geneva-based film-maker that we know from her days at The Real News Network, featuring important stories independently. OpenDemocracy presented this segment, on the corporate infiltration of the UN, and hence international governance. Lynn speaks with Harris Gleckman, Senior Fellow at the Center for Governance and Sustainability, and the author of ‘Multistakeholder Governance and Democracy : A Global Challenge‘. For the past 30 years, he has been a leading expert on multinational corporations, global environmental management, financing for development, global governance institutions, and the economics of climate change. They discuss how the World Economic Forum, best known for its annual Davos gathering for the rich and connected, has entered into a troubling agreement with the UN
Facebook and Google’s pervasive surveillance poses an unprecedented danger to human rights - Amnesty International - Facebook and Google’s omnipresent surveillance of billions of people poses a systemic threat to human rights, Amnesty International warned in a new report as it called for a radical transformation of the tech giants’ core business model. Surveillance Giants lays out how the surveillance-based business model of Facebook and Google is inherently incompatible with the right to privacy and poses a systemic threat to a range of other rights including freedom of opinion and expression, freedom of thought, and the right to equality and non-discrimination.“Google and Facebook dominate our modern lives – amassing unparalleled power over the digital world by harvesting and monetizing the personal data of billions of people. Their insidious control of our digital lives undermines the very essence of privacy and is one of the defining human rights challenges of our era,” said Kumi Naidoo, Secretary General of Amnesty International.“To protect our core human values in the digital age – dignity, autonomy, privacy – there needs to be a radical overhaul of the way Big Tech operates, and to move to an internet that has human rights at its core.”Google and Facebook have established dominance over the primary channels that most of the world – outside of China – relies on to realize their rights online. The various platforms they own – including Facebook, Instagram, Google Search, YouTube and WhatsApp –facilitate the ways people seek and share information, engage in debate and participate in society. Google’s Android also underpins most of the world’s smartphones. While other Big Tech companies – including Apple, Amazon and Microsoft – have accrued significant power in other areas, it is the platforms owned by Facebook and Google that have become fundamental to how people engage and interact with each other – effectively a new global public square.
Global economy dodges recession by narrowest of margins- Kemp (Reuters) - The global economy may have narrowly avoided a recession, with most industrial and financial indicators pointing to a slight improvement in September-October after a sharp slowdown in the middle of the year.World trade volumes were down almost 1.5% in the three months from June to August compared with the same period a year earlier, the worst performance since the recession of 2008/09.The trade data are the most recent available from the Netherland Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ("World trade monitor", CPB, Oct. 25).Since then, however, most equity and bond market indicators as well as industrial production surveys have shown the slowdown has eased (https://tmsnrt.rs/2O1uDoV).South Korea’s KOSPI-100 equity index, normally a good proxy for trade given the country’s heavy exposure to exports, is up 11% since the end of August and has risen year-on-year for the first time since May 2018. In the bond market, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has un-inverted, with yields on 10-year notes now 23 basis points above three-month bills, from a discount of 52 basis points near the end of August.The curve normally inverts before a sharp slowdown and then often starts to normalise shortly before the onset of a recession as the Federal Reserve cuts short-term rates.In this case, however, investors are increasingly confident the Fed’s three interest rate cuts since July will be enough to forestall a descent into recession.Bond traders seem convinced the earlier loss of momentum will prove to be a mid-cycle slowdown, like 1967, 1995, 1998 or 2015, rather than mark the end of the expansion, like 2001 or 2008. Recent industrial production data from the United States, Germany and Japan all provide some evidence the economy is turning a corner. U.S. manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts (hit by the strike at General Motors) was down 0.5% in the three months from August to October compared with a year earlier.But the rolling three-month average improved in September and October for the first time since the start of the year, suggesting that recessionary forces were easing. Japan’s manufacturing production was down 0.8% in the three months from July to September compared with a year earlier, but the rate of decline was easing. Germany’s industrial output was also down by more than 4% in July-September compared with a year ago, but again the rate of decline showed signs of easing.
In Bizarre Admission, ECB Warns Its Policies Threaten Financial Stability, Could Lead To A Crash - Is the world's largest hedge fund central bank finally starting to appreciate the devastating consequences of its asset reflating ways? In some ways it is almost ludicrous to presume that a central bank which at the beginning of the year laughably "found" that its QE has reduced inequality in the eurozone... may have finally looked in the mirror objectively, and yet on Wednesday, it was the ECB which admitted that historically low eurozone interest rates - which it is solely responsible for - and which are expected to persist into the foreseeable future (and beyond) are causing increased risk-taking that could threaten financial stability."While the low interest rate environment supports the overall economy, we also note an increase in risk-taking which could… create financial stability challenges," ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos said non-ironically in a statement... which to us sounds an awful close to a mea culpa. Then again, we know that central banks never admit responsibility for "increases in risk-taking" so we wonder if he was just trolling everyone.Or perhaps he isn't: "Signs of excessive risk-taking" were spotted by the Frankfurt central bank among non-bank financial players like "investment funds, insurance companies and pension funds." Indeed, many "have increased their exposure to riskier segments of the corporate and sovereign sectors" the central bank said. Of course, it is the ECB's own policy of negative yields has prompted investors to seek out riskier bets in search of returns. Curiously, while the ECB’s twice-yearly update to its risk assessment shifted focus from May’s trade war concerns, “downside risks to global and euro area economic growth have increased” in the meantime, it warned. Such dangers included “persistent uncertainty, an escalation in trade protectionism, a no-deal Brexit and weak performance of emerging markets,” notably China, the ECB said.
Turkey’s Deportations Force Europe to Face Its ISIS Militants NYT - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to send back foreign citizens who supported the Islamic State is handing Western Europe a problem it had hoped to avoid: what to do about the potential return of radicalized, often battle-hardened Europeans to countries that absolutely do not want them back. Faced with fierce popular opposition to the repatriation of such detainees and fears over the long-term threat they could pose back home, European leaders have sought alternative ways to prosecute them — in an international tribunal, on Iraqi soil, anywhere but on the Continent. But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, made more powerful by a sudden shift in American policy, is determined to foist the problem of the captured European Islamic State fighters back on the countries they came from. Last week, Turkey sent a dozen former Islamic State members and relatives to Britain, Denmark, Germany and the United States, and Mr. Erdogan says hundreds more are right behind them. “All of the European countries, especially those with most of the foreign fighters, have desperately been looking for the past year for a way to deal with them without bringing them back,” said Rik Coolsaet, an expert on radicalization at the Egmont Institute, a Brussels-based research group. “But now, European nations are being forced to consider repatriation since Turkey is going to put people on the plane.” The sudden problem for Europe is a long-tail consequence of President Trump’s precipitous decision last month to withdraw American forces from northern Syria, which cleared the way for Turkey to take control of territory as well as many of the Islamic State members who had been held there in Kurdish-run prisons or detention camps. The issue is further complicated by the fact that nearly two-thirds of the Western European detainees, or about 700, are children, many of whom have lost one parent, if not both. Now that more of the former fighters are in Turkish hands, Mr. Erdogan has not hesitated to use the threat of returning them as leverage over European countries who have been deeply critical of his incursion, and who have threatened sanctions against Turkey for unauthorized oil drilling in the eastern Mediterranean off Cyprus. The fate of the former fighters and their families has become yet another point of contention between Turkey and Europe, which is already paying Mr. Erdogan’s government billions of dollars to stem the flow of asylum seekers from conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
#MeToo launches fascistic attack on Polanski’s film J’accuse --The #MeToo campaign has launched a vitriolic attack on Roman Polanski’s cinematic masterpiece on the Dreyfus Affair, J’accuse (English title: An Officer and a Spy). With the full support of France’s banker-president, Emmanuel Macron, its supporters are working to brand Polanski as a rapist, denounce viewers or supporters of J’accuse as rape apologists and suppress the film.The defining characteristic of this reactionary effort is its contempt for the historical, political and one might add moral issues bound up with the monumental 1894-1906 legal battle to clear a French-Jewish officer, Captain Alfred Dreyfus, framed on charges of spying for Germany. J’accuse currently tops the French box office, with over a half-million tickets sold in its first week of showings. Yet #MeToo advocates are aggressively campaigning against this great work of art, and aligning themselves with far-right positions. #MeToo supporters rallied at a theater in Paris on November 12, brandishing signs reading “J’accuse [I accuse] the rapist Polanski,” and shut down a pre-screening of the film. Since the launch of the film in France on November 13, they have blocked other screenings in the Paris area, in Rennes, Saint Nazaire, Bordeaux, Caen and other cities. A widely publicized slogan of #MeToo demonstrators against J’accuse is “Polanski rapist, cinemas guilty, viewers complicit!” Leading actors have been forced to cancel appearance to promote the film, as #MeToo supporters attempted to block all such efforts. Jean Dujardin was prevented from publicizing J’accuse on TF1 television, and Emmanuelle Seigner was forced to abandon an appearance on France Inter.#MeToo supporters and elected officials are trying to impose local bans on the film. Initially, Socialist Party (PS) official Gérald Cosme announced a ban on the film in the Seine Saint-Denis department north of Paris. Cosme was forced to retract the ban, however, after an outcry from film directors and movie theater staff, who announced they would defy the ban. Top officials of the Macron government are inciting and supporting this foul campaign. Minister for Equality between Women and Men Marlène Schiappa on November 13, and then government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye the following day, declared they would not see J’accuse. Ndiaye said that she could not view Polanski’s film because she does “not share much with a man facing such accusations.”
Paris police use tear gas, water cannon on ‘yellow vest’ protests anniversary (Reuters) - Demonstrators torched cars and pelted police with stones and bottles and police fired tear gas and water cannon in Paris on Saturday as rallies to mark the first anniversary of the anti-government “yellow vest” demonstrations erupted into violence. A total of 28,000 people demonstrated across France on Saturday including 4,700 in Paris, the interior ministry said. This was more than in recent weeks but 10 times less the record 282,000 estimated for the whole country on Nov. 17, 2018, the first day of the protests. In Paris, police took 124 people in for questioning and 78 people were in custody , the authorities said. Demonstrators, many clad in black and hiding their faces, vandalized an HSBC bank branch at the Place d’Italie. They set trash bins on fire, hurled cobblestones and bottles at riot police, and erected barricades. Several cars were set ablaze. Police responded with tear gas and blasts from water cannon. Clashes also broke out between demonstrators and police near the Porte de Champerret, close to the Arc de Triomphe, as protesters prepared to march across town towards Gare d’Austerlitz.
5-Star’s crisis threatens Italian government’s survival (Reuters) - The 5-Star Movement, senior partner in two coalitions since last year’s national election, is struggling with internal strife and falling support which threaten the survival of Italy’s two-month old government. The anti-establishment party won 34% in the March 2018 election, twice that of its nearest rival, but is now polling at half that level. Surveys show a downward trend that is fuelling party anxiety and dissent towards its leader, Luigi Di Maio. Investors are becoming jittery. The spread between Italian benchmark government bonds and German Bunds, which had narrowed sharply after the government was formed, increased last week to its widest for three months. Fourteen 5-Star lawmakers defied Di Maio last month by voting down a government plan to save a heavily polluting steel plant in southern Italy by granting legal immunity to its owners while they carried out a clean-up plan. Di Maio, who is Italy’s foreign minister, said last week that his internal critics who speak anonymously to the press were driven by personal ambition and should leave the party.
Polish workers abandoning Brexit Britain in favour of Germany - Since 2006, the United Kingdom has been the favourite destination of Polish workers heading out beyond the borders of their country.No longer.According to new data from Poland's Central Statistics Office, the number of Poles in the UK has fallen by 98,000. There are now 695,000 Polish people in the UK, while Germany is home to 706,000.Many Poles who have left the UK pointed to worries about their status after Brexit, as well its drag on the value of the British pound.Piotr Sliwinski decided to return to Poland after seven years as a banker in the City of London. He told Al Jazeera that in recent years London's financial appeal has dampened."People move away from their family and friends to seek better opportunities and a higher standard of living," he said. "When the pound-to-zloty exchange rate fell from six to 4.7 zlotys, the financial factor stopped playing such a big role." As a result of moving back, he said his standard of life has improved."In my industry, the pay is on a comparable level between the UK and Poland. Not in the absolute value, but in local purchasing power."After two years as a construction worker in Oxford, Tomasz Dyrecki is also eager to return. He was initially drawn to the UK out of cultural curiosity, but is now mulling over the practicality of having children in a foreign country."It would be a very different thing to bring up children in England rather than Poland," he told Al Jazeera. "You know, home is home."
EU defies Boris Johnson and declares UK will only get a ‘bare-bones’ trade deal or a no-deal Brexit next year The European Union's trade chief has declared that Boris Johnson will only get a "bare-bones" trade deal next year — or none at all. The prime minister has insisted that the United Kingdom will leave the EU in January next year and have time to secure a comprehensive free trade deal by the end of the transition period in December 2020. But Sabine Weyand, the EU's Director-General for Trade, said there was only time to negotiate a "bare-bones" deal with the UK next year, as the transition period will give negotiators less than 12 months of talks. The other alternative, Weyand said, is a no-deal Brexit exit at the end of the transition period. The remarks were reported by The Sun newspaper and are said to have been made during a breakfast meeting with the Transatlantic Policy Network in Brussels on Wednesday last week. The official's comments flatly contradict those of Johnson. He said on Monday that there was "absolutely no reason" why the UK could not wrap up all negotiations for a comprehensive deal in December 2020. The UK can extend the transition period, under which the UK must abide by all EU rules, for two years to December 2022, but the prime minister has repeatedly vowed not to. The Liberal Democrats said Weyand's comments underlined the risk that a Conservative government would pursue a no-deal Brexit next year. Chuka Umunna, the Lib Dems foreign affairs spokesperson, said: "It's clear the Canada-style free trade agreement that the PM seeks cannot be negotiated within the next the next year.
Brexit news – live: Farage accuses Tories of ‘corruption’ over alleged offer of peerages for election favours Independent - Nigel Farage has accused the Tories of “corruption” over claims that several Brexit Party candidates were offered peerages and negotiating roles in return for stepping down in the general election race. Dominic Raab has left the door open for Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal if future Brexit negotiations with the bloc don’t go the government’s way, telling Andrew Marr: “I don’t think it’s remotely likely.” Jeremy Corbyn reiterated his party’s commitment to a second referendum but refused four times to say whether he backed Leave or Remain, insisting he wants to “bring people together on both sides”. The Labour leader refused to say whether the party would seek to continue freedom of movement, despite it being current policy. He hinted their now-finalised manifesto would lay out plans for “a great deal of movement” but would not be drawn to explain in more detail. Elsewhere, a “heartbroken” Jennifer Arcuri has accused Boris Johnson of casting her aside like “some fleeting one-night stand” as she “kept [his] secrets” amid the media firestorm over whether he misused public funds in awarding her cyber-firm £100,000. The US businesswoman told ITV she wished the PM had declared their mysterious personal relationship a conflict of interest at the time to avoid her “humiliation”, in an interview to be broadcast on Sunday evening.
Boris Johnson’s Brexit tightrope - Everything seems to be falling into place for Boris Johnson. The polls show the Conservative prime minister way out in front in the U.K.'s upcoming December 12 election. His conviction is infectious, and "Get Brexit Done" — his core campaign message — is beguilingly simple. The opposition is divided, and may chip away at each other's vote share in key constituencies. On top of that, the Brexit Party recently unilaterally decided not to contest Conservative seats in the election. In other words, if voters want to throw their weight behind the Leave campaign, Johnson is their only choice. The result of this election will determine the nation's future more than any for generations, but while Johnson seems on course for victory, his plan to achieve it requires an organization and discipline that he and his colleagues seem to lack. With less than four weeks to go before the nation votes, Johnson's victory is not a sure thing. The stakes are very high for the Conservatives. They are the only party that needs to win a majority in December, because in betraying their only potential coalition partner, Northern Ireland's DUP, they have no potential allies in the U.K. Parliament. If they fail to win a majority — or to at least come within one or two seats of a majority — their opponents will likely coalesce, and there will almost certainly be a second Brexit referendum, if not a reversal of the process altogether. Perhaps more painfully for Johnson, a man who has wanted to be "world king" since childhood, he would become the shortest-serving British prime minister in 100 years.Conservatives' strategy is to make this election about Brexit, and in doing so, transpose the 2016 referendum coalition that voted to leave the European Union into December's general election. But the 52 percent of U.K. voters who voted Leave in 2016 straddled the political and social spectrum. Crucially, some of the areas with the highest proportion of Leave voters are found in the traditional Labour heartlands of Northern England and Wales, an area that has been dubbed the "red wall." Tories know they will lose a number of seats in Scotland, and in Remain voting constituencies in the South, so breaking the "red wall" has become the aim. But Britain is a nation with deeply ingrained party-political loyalties built up over time. Many Leave voters have long-held bitter resentment of Conservative leadership, and decades of family history voting for the Labour party, currently the Tory's main opposition. Success in December's election for the Tories rests on whether voters' fealty to Leave overrides these ancient affiliations. If the gamble pays off, the public will deliver a massive Conservative majority.
Lib Dems launch ‘Stop Brexit’ election manifesto ahead of UK general election Jo Swinson on Wednesday morning unveiled the Liberal Democrat manifesto ahead of the U.K. general election, with a central pledge to cancel Brexit. The Lib Dem boss said in a statement her prospectus for the country was a “bold plan to build a brighter future for our country, and that starts with stopping Brexit.”Ahead of a launch event in central London on Wednesday night, she added: “Labour and the Conservatives can’t offer the country a brighter future because they both want Brexit. We know that will be bad for our economy, bad for our NHS and bad for our environment.”At the heart of the Lib Dem manifesto is a prediction that stopping Brexit will deliver a £50 billion “Remain bonus” to the public finances — assuming the economy grows at a faster rate than it would under the Brexit deal agreed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.The Lib Dems said that cash would go towards its spending plans, which include reversing school cuts, extending free childcare for two-year-olds and from nine-months for working parents and giving adults £10,000 over their lifetimes to spend on education and training. They also plan to borrow £130 billion to invest in capital infrastructure projects, £80 billion of which would be spent on environmental measures such as rail building and improvement and home insulation.The party also wants to increase income tax by 1p in every £1 to invest in health and social care, including expanded mental health provisions. Other income streams would include a reform of air passenger duty, charging businesses and frequent flyers more and regular passengers less, which the Lib Dems think would rake in £4.8 million a year by 2024/25.The party also wants to legalize cannabis for sale in licensed premises, which would reap £1.5 million for the Treasury in the final year of the next parliament.The chance of the Lib Dems winning the election on December 12 are next to zero, according to current polling. It is more likely they could be kingmakers if the Tories or Labour need help to form a majority after polling day — although Swinson has ruled out any kind of coalition deals. One Lib Dem former minister said the party wanted to win, but if it failed to do so, it would vote on an issue-by-issue basis, steered by the manifesto commitments.
George Osborne admits he’s considering abandoning the Tories to vote Lib Dem - GEORGE Osborne risked sparking fury last night by revealing he is thinking about voting Lib Dem.The former Tory chancellor astonishingly announced he could break with his party and back Conservative defector Sam Gyimah on December 12. And he slammed Boris Johnson for booting Tory moderate MPs out of the party after they delayed Brexit.Mr Osborne, who now edits The Evening Standard newspaper, lives in the key marginal seat of Kensington. Writing in The Spectator, he said: “The Lib Dem candidate is Sam Gyimah, who sat in meetings with me in Downing Street every day when he was a Tory MP and [David Cameron’s] parliamentary private secretary.“I like Sam. He’s bright and sensible. So do I vote for him, or for the party that — however wayward it’s become — gave me incredible opportunities for 20 years?“We’ll see, but old habits die hard.”Mr Osborne said he would vote for newly independent David Gauke if he lived in his constituency of South west HertfordshireMr Gauke was his right-hand man at the Treasury and was in the Tory cabinet until July this year. Leader Jo Swinson said people should be able to choose ‘X’ rather than male or female as part of her LGBT rights policies.She also wants schools to have “inclusive uniform policies that are gender-neutral” in future.But the passport office has said specifying gender helps officials to identify imposters and “protect people’s identity and general security”. And Mr Osborne recalled “uncorking the Gauke” when the Treasury had tricky policy decisions to make.
General election 2019: Jeremy Corbyn to remain neutral in any new Brexit vote Jeremy Corbyn has said he would remain neutral in a future Brexit referendum if Labour wins power. He told a BBC Question Time leaders' special he would not campaign for Leave or Remain so it would allow him, as prime minister, to "credibly" carry out what the voters then decide. Prime Minister Boris Johnson later asked how Mr Corbyn could be "indifferent" on such a vital issue. But Mr Johnson faced questions of his own about whether he could be trusted. The prime minister was the fourth party leader to answer the audience's questions, with the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon and Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson also taking to the stage for 30 minutes each on Friday evening. Pressed on whether politicians should be relied upon to tell the truth, Mr Johnson said this was "absolutely vital". While trust was a crucial issue for voters, he argued the biggest threat to public confidence was the "corrosive" effect of Parliament trying to block Brexit. Fact-checking the leaders' debate Kuenssberg: No comfortable ride for the party leaders Five standout moments Live: Reaction to Question Time special He said the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem leaders wanted to "basically frustrate" the result of the 2016 referendum, which the public had been waiting more than three years to see delivered, by "absurdly" holding another one. He said that the Labour leader's views seemed to have "mutated" and Mr Corbyn's ambition to negotiate an improved agreement would be totally undermined if he did not care whether the public backed it or not. "He is now going to be neutral on the deal he proposes to do. I don't see how he can do a deal when he is going to be neutral or indifferent."
Fire devastates student accommodation block covered in combustible cladding in Bolton - At around 8:30 p.m. last Friday, a fire broke out in a student accommodation block in Bolton, a town in the Greater Manchester region of northwest England. The accommodation block, known as the Cube, is a six-storey building that houses students attending the University of Bolton. The fire started in the upper part of the building, and, in a frighteningly reminiscent manner to the Grenfell Tower fire in London in June 2017, rapidly spread up and around the building. At the height of the fire around 200 firefighters and 40 fire engines were present. The fire burnt fiercely and rendered the upper floors a bare framework. It was 5:30 a.m. the following day before all pockets of fire had been extinguished. The block was home to 211 students but at the time of the fire only around 100 were in the building. Fortunately, there were no fatalities, but two students had to be treated by paramedics for minor injuries sustained. One student was rescued from the building by firefighters using an aerial platform ladder. All the students’ belongings, including passports and laptops, were destroyed by the fire or resulting water damage from firefighters’ hosepipes. The block is owned by private landlord group Urban Student Life (USL). Speaking to the media, Cube residents raised long-standing issues such as alarms going off for no reason—which led to some complacency. The rapid spread of the Bolton fire was recorded in a video by Ryan Pardon, a resident in a neighbouring block. The Daily Mirror Online notes the “[t]errifying footage shows devastating flames rip through the fourth floor right up to roof … in a matter of minutes.” The article continues, “Ryan … started recording when the fire had taken hold of the fourth and fifth floors … but within 90 seconds it had spread to (the) top level—and a mere 40 seconds later they went through the roof.” The Mirror added, “A shocked witness spoke of flames ‘crawling up the cladding’ with every floor of the six-storey building alight.”
Prince Andrew: KPMG ends sponsorship of royal's scheme - KPMG has not renewed its sponsorship of the Duke of York's entrepreneurship initiative, Pitch@Palace.The accountancy firm is thought to have made the decision at the end of October.The controversy over the prince's ties to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is understood to have been one reason behind the decision.The revelation follows Prince Andrew's appearance on BBC Newsnight in what critics called a "car-crash" interview.In the interview, the Queen's third child said he still did not regret his friendship with US financier Epstein - who took his own life in August while awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges in the US.The BBC has contacted Buckingham Palace for comment regarding KPMG's decision.The accountancy and auditing firm - which is not the only company associated with Pitch@Palace - declined to comment.The scheme was founded by the prince in 2014 and involves entrepreneurs competing for the chance to pitch their business ideas to influential business figures.
“The Palace… Threatened Us a Million Different Ways”. Buckingham Palace has been “threatening” journalists to bury the story for years – which is all very reminiscent of Jimmy Savile, who was of course, ahem, popular at the Palace. Robach also states they were scared of losing interview access to folically challenged William Saxe Coburg Gotha and his underweight wife. She does not explicitly state that was one of the “threats” Buckingham Palace employed, but it does follow directly as her next observation.Amy Robach very probably realised this “unguarded” moment would get out to the public, and we should be grateful to her for lifting the lid on how the protection of the crimes of the powerful operates, on a global level. Alan Dershowitz, whom Robach mentions, was not only a Lolita Express passenger, he is the celebrity lawyer who defended the CIA‘s use of torture as legally and morally justified. One might speculate on the psychological parallels of torturing the defenceless and inflicting sex on the young.There is overwhelming evidence that Virginia Roberts Giuffre was trafficked into the UK by Epstein for sex with Prince Andrew. There are flight logs. There is that compromising photo in Ghislaine Maxwell’s flat. Both are entirely consistent with, and strongly corroborate, Virginia’s own testimony. This instance occurred in the UK. It ought to be a matter of deep national disgrace that neither Ghislaine Maxwell nor “Prince” Andrew has been questioned over by the Metropolitan Police over this sex trafficking. That Virginia was over 16 is not the issue. She was sex trafficked into the UK and not legally adult. Why is there not a massive media clamour for Scotland Yard to investigate? Amy Robach has the answer to that question.
Queen sacks Prince Andrew: Monarch summons distraught Duke of York to Buckingham Palace, orders him to step down from public duties and strips him of £249,000 ‘salary’ amid fall-out from his friendship with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein -The Queen 'sacked' Prince Andrew from royal duties after discussing the crisis with Prince Charles and summoning her distraught 'favourite son' to Buckingham Palace to learn his fate.The Duke of York is today being urged to fly to America to speak to the FBI with lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein's victims warning him 'any delay' must lead to US agents heading to London to interview him before Christmas. Attorney Lisa Bloom, who represents five of Epstein's 'slaves', has said she is ready to subpoena Andrew and force him to give evidence in the US - but prosecutors would treat him as a witness to help prosecute Epstein's 'helpers' and co-conspirators rather than a criminal suspect. Ms Bloom said: 'Andrew and his staff must cooperate with all investigations, show up for civil depositions and trials, and produce all documents. Nobody is above the law and everybody should have to answer questions'.The Queen took decisive action against her second son last night in a desperate bid to contain the fall-out from the duke's disastrous Newsnight interview about his years of friendship with the paedophile. Prince Charles, who is in New Zealand with his wife Camilla, is said to have stepped in and made it clear his younger brother be stripped of all royal duties. Andrew will lose his £249,000 annual income from the taxpayer-funded Sovereign Grant as a result - but will keep his grace-and-favour home in Windsor and cash will still come in from his mother's Duchy of Lancaster estate, the source of her multi-million pound private income. The Duke wanted to speak to the BBC but he was skewered by Emily Maitlis. The misjudgment triggered days of catastrophic headlines and caused a string of businesses and charities to desert him, with experts calling it the biggest crisis to grip the royal family for decades.
