Fed Drastically Slashed Helicopter Money for Wall Street. QE Down 86% From Peak Week in March - Wolf Richter - Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet rose by only $83 billion during the week ending April 29, to $6.656 trillion. That $83 billion was the smallest weekly increase since this show started on March 15, and down by 86% from peak-bailout in the week ended March 25. This chart shows the weekly increases of total assets on Fed’s balance sheet: The Fed is thereby following its playbook laid out over the past two years in various Fed-head talks that it would front-load the bailout-QE during the next crisis, and that, after the initial blast, it would then cut back these asset purchases when no longer needed, rather than let them drag out for years.On January 1, the balance sheet stopped expanding as the Fed’s repo market bailout had ended. However, in late February, all heck was breaking loose, and the Fed first increased its repo offerings and then on March 15, started massively throwing freshly created money at the markets, peaking with $586 billion in the single week ended March 25.But since then, the Fed has slashed its weekly increases in assets, which shows up in the flattening curve of the Fed’s total assets in 2020: The Fed cut its purchases of Treasury securities. The balance of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) actually fell. Repurchase agreements (repos) have fallen into disuse. Lending to Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) has not gone anywhere in five weeks. And foreign central bank liquidity swaps, after spiking in the first two weeks, only rose modestly, with most of the increase coming from the Bank of Japan, which is by far the largest user of those swaps. The Fed added only $62 billion of Treasury securities to its balance sheet during the week, the smallest amount since this show began, down 83% from the $362 billion during peak-Wall-Street-helicopter-money. This chart shows the weekly increases of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet: The chart below shows this effect: The curve of Treasury securities has been flattening over the past few weeks, after the massive frontloading of purchases in March. The total is now $3.97 trillion: The Fed has drastically cut its purchases of mortgage-backed securities over the past five weeks, as reported by the New York Fed transaction summary (net purchases, for the weeks ended):
- $157 billion (Mar 25)
- $145 billion (Apr 1)
- $109 billion (Apr 8)
- $58 billion (Apr 15)
- $56 billion (Apr 22)
- $38.5 billion (Apr 29)
MBS trades take weeks to settle. All of the $38.5 billion in MBS the Fed bought this week will settle in May. Since the Fed books the MBS trades only after they settle, the balance sheet lags by some time the actual trades. In addition, if the Fed buys no MBS at all, the MBS on its balance sheet will decline due to the pass-through principal payments that all holders of MBS receive as the underlying mortgages are paid down or are paid off. There is currently a boom in mortgage refinancing underway, which creates a torrent of these pass-through principal payments. Just to keep its MBS at a steady level, the Fed would need to buy a significant amount of MBS.
The Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means to Be a Central Bank – WSJ - The Federal Reserve is redefining central banking. By lending widely to businesses, states and cities in its effort to insulate the U.S. economy from the coronavirus pandemic, it is breaking century-old taboos about who gets money from the central bank in a crisis, on what terms, and what risks it will take about getting that money back.And with large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, the Federal Reserve is stretching the boundaries for what a central bank will do to finance soaring federal debt—actions that move it deeper into political decisions it usually tries to avoid.Fed leaders don’t like doing any of this. They believe they have no better alternative.“None of us has the luxury of choosing our challenges; fate and history provide them for us,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech this month. “Our job is to meet the tests we are presented.”Economists project the central bank’s portfolio of bonds, loans and new programs will swell to between $8 trillion and $11 trillion from less than $4 trillion last year. In that range, the portfolio would be twice the size reached after the 2007-09 financial crisis and nearly half the value of U.S. annual economic output.It would make its role in the economy far greater than during the Great Depression or World War II, according to Wall Street Journal calculations. The portfolio had reached $6.57 trillion by April 22. “The Fed is being sent on a mission to places it has never been before,” says Adam Tooze, a Columbia University history professor who writes about financial crisis and war. Due to the financial and economic shocks caused by the virus, he says, central-bank officials “are being sucked into a series of entanglements that they cannot control and that they normally will not touch with a long pole, but this time felt they had to go in, and go in hard.”
The New York Fed Is Exercising Powers Never Bestowed on It by any Law - Pam Martens -Earlier this month President Trump advanced the viewthat during a national emergency the President has “total power.” The real power, however, is being exercised by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) with not so much as one vote by any elected representatives of the citizens of the U.S.The speed at which the New York Fed, owned by multinational banks, can create trillions of U.S. dollarsby pushing an electronic button and bring financial relief to the 1 percent on Wall Street stands in sharp contrast to the millions of mom and pop small businesses across America who are still waiting to see a dime in relief from an elected Congress, forcing a growing number of small businesses to close permanently and thus further consolidating money and power in the United States.On September 17, 2019, months before any case of coronavirus COVID-19 had been discovered anywhere in the world, the New York Fed began pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars a week in super cheap loans to the trading houses of Wall Street, a group of 24 firms it calls its “primary dealers.” This action in the repo loan market was the first by the New York Fed since the financial crisis of 2008. By January 27, 2020, before one death had been announced in the United States from the virus, the New York Fed had pumped $6.6 trillion cumulatively in revolving loans to the trading houses of Wall Street. By March 14, the loan tally was more than $9 trillion and climbing.In addition to those repo loans, the New York Fed is running an alphabet soup of emergency relief programs for the mega banks and trading houses on Wall Street in addition to the billions the Fed is loaning through its Discount Window at 1/4 of one percent interest. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has made a grand gesture to the 1 percent on Wall Street by authorizing $454 billion of taxpayer money to be used to absorb losses on these emergency facilities for Wall Street. In the past 90 years there have been three financial crises on Wall Street that required emergency operations by the Federal Reserve. Two of those three crises occurred in the past 12 years. That should send a very clear signal to every American and to Congress that Wall Street is bleeding the system dry.
FOMC Statement: "committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time" -- FOMC Statement:The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. […] To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
Fed opens Municipal Liquidity Facility to smaller cities and counties— The Federal Reserve is expanding the reach of its Municipal Liquidity Facility to smaller U.S. cities and counties as pressure mounts on the federal government to support localities that are short on cash due to the coronavirus pandemic. The Municipal Liquidity Facility will still purchase up to $500 billion in short-term notes, but will now be available to counties with at least 500,000 residents and cities with at least 250,000 residents. Previously, the facility only made short-term financing available to cities with a population of more than 1 million or counties with a population of greater than 2 million.“The new population thresholds allow substantially more entities to borrow directly from the MLF than the initial plan announced on April 9,” the Fed said in a release. The notes that municipalities will be able to sell through the facility are intended to help cities and states get through a period of time with limited spending and lower tax revenues as many operate under stay-at-home orders. The Fed also said Monday that it is considering allowing government entities that issue bonds backed by their own revenue to participate in the Municipal Liquidity Facility as eligible issuers. The central bank said it would continue to monitor conditions in the municipal security markets and “will evaluate whether additional measures are needed to support the flow of credit and liquidity to state and local governments.”
Fed to Extend Loans to More Cities, Counties – WSJ -- The Federal Reserve said Monday it would broaden the number of local governments from which it will buy debt through a forthcoming lending program. The Fed will allow one borrower for each county of at least 500,000 people and city of at least 250,000, down from earlier cutoffs of 2 million and 1 million, respectively. The central bank will also purchase debt with maturities of up to three years, instead of any earlier cap of two years. The Fed will lend up to $500 billion through the facility, and the Treasury Department has provided $35 billion to cover any losses. After announcing the program earlier this month, the central bank faced strong support from lawmakers and other elected officials to expand the number of municipalities that would be allowed to borrow. Lawmakers in both parties had chafed against the larger population cutoffs, with several saying it would improperly exclude American cities with large minority populations. = The Fed unveiled the program more than two weeks ago and initially limited participation to around 75 issuers—including all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The latest change will allow for as many as 261 state, city and county issuers to participate. The central bank will require issuers to have been highly rated as of April 8, which is the day before the it announced the creation of the municipal lending program. That could pose a challenge for the city of Detroit, which is now large enough to qualify for the program but has a speculative-grade rating from Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings.
$500 billion Fed aid program for corporations won't require them to preserve jobs - A Federal Reserve program expected to begin within weeks will provide hundreds of billions in emergency aid to large American corporations without requiring them to save jobs or limit payments to executives and shareholders.Under the program, the central bank will buy up to $500 billion in bonds issued by large companies. The companies will use the influx of cash as a financial lifeline but are required to pay it back with interest.Unlike other portions of the relief for American businesses, however, this aid will be exempt from rules passed by Congress requiring recipients to limit dividends, executive compensation and stock buybacks and does not direct the companies to maintain certain employment levels.Critics say the program could allow large companies that take the federal help to reward shareholders and executives without saving any jobs. The program was set up jointly by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. “I am struck that the administration is relying on the good will of the companies receiving this assistance,” said Eswar Prasad, a former official at the International Monetary Fund and economist at Cornell University. “A few months down the road, after the government purchases its debt, the company can turn around and issue a bunch of dividends to shareholders or fire its workers, and there’s no clear path to get it back.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defended the corporate aid program, saying that the lack of restrictions on recipients had been discussed and agreed to by Congress. “This was highly discussed on a bipartisan basis. This was thought through carefully,” he said in an interview with The Washington Post. “What we agreed upon was direct loans would carry the restrictions, and the capital markets transactions would not carry the restrictions.” Democrats asked for restrictions on how companies can use the money from the central bank’s bond purchases but were rebuffed by the administration during negotiations about the Cares Act, said a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). The spokesman said Democrats won meaningful concessions from the administration on reporting transparency in the final agreement. (Transparency requirements do not apply to the small-business loans, the biggest business aid program rolled out to date.) Mnuchin also said the program had already bolstered investor confidence in U.S. capital markets, which in turn helped firms raise capital they used to avoid layoffs. “The mere announcement of these facilities, quite frankly, led to a reopening of a lot of these capital markets,” Mnuchin said in an interview. “Even before these facilities are up and running, they’ve had their desired impact of having stability in the markets. Stability in the markets allows companies to function, and raise money and allows them to keep and retain workers and get back to work."
Is There Deflation or Inflation in Our Future? -- Olivier Blanchard - Will falling commodity prices, stumbling oil prices, and a depressed labour market bring low inflation and perhaps even deflation, or will very large increases in fiscal deficits and central bank balance sheets bring inflation? This column argues that it is hard to see strong demand leading to inflation. Precautionary saving is likely to play a lasting role, leading to low consumption, and uncertainty is likely to lead to low investment. The challenge for monetary and fiscal policy is thus likely to be to sustain demand and avoid deflation rather than the reverse. Is there deflation or inflation in our future? Some observers point to falling commodity prices, stumbling oil prices, and a depressed labour market and see low inflation, perhaps even deflation as far as forecasts go. Others point to the very large increases in fiscal deficits and central bank balance sheets and see inflation, perhaps even high inflation. I put most of my probability mass on the low inflation forecast. But I cannot completely dismiss a small probability of high inflation.1 Let me explain.
PCE Price Index: March Headline & Core - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays for March was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was down 0.27% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.32% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. More recent FOMC statements now refer only to the two percent target. The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.
Fed's Powell: More stimulus needed from Congress — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell committed on Wednesday to use the central bank’s complete range of tools to limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus, while at the same time urging Congress to do more to enact fiscal stimulus for American businesses and households. In Powell's first press conference since the Fed slashed interest rates to zero last month — and his first by web videoconference — he did not mince words, calling the current downturn “unlike anything certainly that’s happened in my lifetime.”“While many standard economic statistics have yet to catch up with the reality we're experiencing, it's clear that the effects on the economy are severe,” he said in his opening remarks at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting. “The severity of the downturn will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to cushion the blow and to support the recovery when the public health crisis passes,” he said. Although Powell said borrowers and the economy overall would benefit from the Fed’s programs, he also said that more fiscal stimulus from Congress would be needed to aid in an eventual recovery. Key policies needed for a smooth recovery include those “that protect workers, businesses and households from avoidable insolvency and keep businesses going so that they're able to produce goods, and to either hold on to their employees or quickly rehire them,” Powell said. “Those are going to be key policies,” he said. “They'll come with a hefty price tag, but we would come out of this event, actually, with a stronger economy with less long-run damage to the economy, so that's a key thing that really Congress could do.”The Fed has launched 10 credit facilities to inject liquidity into areas of the economy that have been experiencing strain. The central bank has announced yet not fully implemented other facilities, such as its Main Street Lending Program and facilities for both the primary and secondary corporate credit markets.
Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -4.8% -- The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -4.8% (-4.78% to two decimal places), a major drop from 2.1% (2.13% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -4.0%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 28, 2020. The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued "stay-at-home" orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.18% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.12. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 15.1% below trend.A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.35%. Four of the eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.
BEA: Real GDP decreased at 4.8% Annualized Rate in Q1 --Note: This is the advance release. Most analysts expect downward revisions as more data become available. From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate): Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent....The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services, led by health care, and goods, led by motor vehicles and parts. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment, led by transportation equipment. The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in services, led by travel. The advance Q1 GDP report, at minus 4.8% annualized, was close to expectations. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased at 7.6% annualized rate in Q1, down from 1.8% increase in Q4. Residential investment (RI) increased at a 21.0% rate in Q1. Equipment investment decreased at a 15.2% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 9.7% pace.
GDP sinks 4.8% in the first quarter, biggest drop since 2008 and there is worse to come - The collapse in the U.S. economy caused by the coronavirus pandemic triggered the biggest drop in gross domestic product in the first quarter since 2008 in a prelude to an even more massive decline in the spring. GDP, the official scorecard for economic growth, shrank at a 4.8% annualized pace.GDP, the official scorecard for the economy, shrank at a 4.8% annualized pace from the beginning of January to the end of March, the government said Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 3.9% decrease.The worldwide spread of the coronavirus begin to nip at the edges of the U.S. economy early in the quarter before exploding in March into the biggest crisis since the Great Depression some 90 years ago. The economy is likely to contract by 25% or more in the second quarter, with some forecasts putting the decline at a record 40%.Before the crisis, the U.S. had been expanding at a steady 2% pace during what had become the longest expansion in history at 11 years. : Consumer spending, the main engine of the economy, fell at a 7.6% annual pace. That’s the largest retreat since 1980.Americans slashed spending on cars, clothes, travel, eating out and most other goods and services as millions of people lost their jobs, stores were closed, and households tried to save more money to get them through the crisis.Most notably, health-care spending declined a sharp 2.3% despite an ongoing pandemic. Hospitals have canceled or delayed many elective procedures and patients have stayed away for fear of contracting the virus, causing many hospitals with relatively few coronavirus patients to lay off or furlough workers.Businesses investment also pulled back. Spending on buildings sank almost 10% and investment in equipment tumbled 15%. The value of unsold goods, or inventories, also fell by a $29.4 billion annual rate. The housing industry was one of the few bright spots. Investment surged 21% as low mortgage rates encouraged construction companies to build more houses to meet rising demand. The surge is all but certain to fizzle out in the second quarter, however. With the entire world economy under siege, trade has suffered everywhere. U.S. exports slid 8.7% and imports fell an even steeper 15.3%. A smaller trade deficit adds to GDP, but it’s no solace when U.S. companies can’t sell their goods overseas and Americans can’t afford to buy imports. Government spending rose just slightly in the first quarter. Most of the nearly $3 trillion in federal aid to unemployed workers and closed businesses didn’t start flowing until April. Still, only direct government spending is included in GDP. Financial aid and transfers such as Social Security are not. The rate of inflation was little changed at 1.3%. Inflation was low before the crisis and could go even lower still.The economy has already plunged into a deep recession and is likely to be weak for quite some time. How quickly the U.S. turns around and begins to grow again will depend on how well the states and federal government limit the spread of COVID-19 and allow individuals and businesses to get back to work. Even then, lingering worries about the virus are likely to cause many Americans to continue to practice social distancing, an outcome that will harm industries such as airlines, hotels and restaurants.
GDP: Economy Shrank At 4.8% Pace In 1st Quarter. But Worst Is Yet To Come : Coronavirus Live Updates - The coronavirus pandemic is likely to trigger the sharpest recession in the United States since the Great Depression. An early signal of that came Wednesday, when the Commerce Department said the economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the first three months of the year — the first quarterly contraction since 2014 and the largest since the Great Recession. For the first 2 1/2 of those months, the economy was chugging along at a steady, if not spectacular pace. But the plug was suddenly pulled in mid-March — when bars, restaurants and retail shops were abruptly closed and tens of millions of Americans were ordered to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the deadly disease. "The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world," the Federal Reserve said in a statement. "The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses."The first-quarter drop in GDP was the biggest since an 8.4% dive in the fourth quarter of 2008. It marked a reversal from the 2.1% growth rate at the end of 2019.Consumer spending — which accounts for about 70% of GDP — plummeted at a 7.6% rate in the first quarter — the most since 1980.More than 26 million people suddenly out of work have filed unemployment claims in recent weeks. Half of all Americans say they or someone in their household has either lost hours or a job because of the coronavirus, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll."Prior to the coronavirus shock, the economy was doing relatively well," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics. "The shock that we experienced in the second half of March actually has led to a sudden stop in spending on a lot of services and even spending on some goods."Analysts say even though that shock affected only the last few weeks of the quarter, it was more than enough to erase the gains of the previous 2 1/2 months.Daco said the first-quarter decline is "only the tip of the iceberg."The bulk of the pandemic's economic impact will be felt in the current quarter — April through June. By the end of June, Daco estimates the economy will be 12% smaller than it was at the beginning of the year. "To put that into perspective, that [drop] would be three times as large as what we experienced in the global financial crisis," Daco said. It would be comparable to what the economy experienced at the end of World War II, when factories abruptly stopped churning out tanks and warplanes but had not yet shifted to making civilian goods.
Q1 GDP: Investment --Investment has been weak for some time, and most investment categories were even weaker in Q1 due to COVID-19. However residential investment was very strong in Q1 (increased at 21.0% annual rate in Q1).The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue. Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern doesn't apply. The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.Residential investment (RI) increased in Q1 (21.0% annual rate in Q1). Equipment investment decreased at a 15.2% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 9.7% annual rate.On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is up solidly, equipment (green) is negative, and nonresidential structures (blue) is also down.The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.Residential Investment as a percent of GDP increased in Q1. RI as a percent of GDP is close to the bottom of the previous recessions - and prior to the pandemic, I expected RI to continue to increase further in this cycle. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories. The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products". Investment in equipment and non-residential structures - as a percent of GDP - declined further.
Q1 Real GDP Per Capita: -5.31% Versus the -4.78% Headline Real GDP -The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -4.8% (-4.78% to two decimals), down from 2.1% (2.13% to two decimals) in Q4. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -5.31% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 8.9% below the pre-recession trend. The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is -4.78%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at -5.31%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession. GDP per capita, as we've seen, is a weaker series than GDP. What does it suggest about our current recession risk? The next chart shows the YoY change in real GDP per capita since 1960. We've again highlighted recessions. The red dots show the YoY real GDP for the quarter before the recession began, and the dotted line gives us a sense of how the current level compares to recession starts since 1960. This chart suggests that, despite chronic weakness in the economy, this indicator is not recessionary. That said, we must remember that GDP is a heavily revised lagging indicator. The current YoY at -0.20% is below the 1.32% average value of the eight recession starts in the chart above.
Coronavirus Projected to Trigger Worst Economic Downturn Since 1940s - WSJ—The coronavirus shutdown will induce the sharpest economic downturn and push the U.S. budget deficit to the highest levels since the 1940s, the Congressional Budget Office projects. The economy is likely to shrink 12% in the second quarter—a 40% drop if it were to persist for a year—and the jobless rate will average 14%, the nonpartisan research service said Friday. Job losses will come to 27 million in the second and third quarters. The federal budget deficit is expected to reach $3.7 trillion by the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, the CBO said, up from about $1 trillion in the 12 months through March. Congress has authorized unprecedented deficit spending to offset the shutdown of vast swaths of the U.S. economy. As a proportion of gross domestic product, the deficit will end the fiscal year at almost 18%, its highest level since the year after World War II ended and up from 4.6% in 2019, the CBO said. Federal debt held by the public is projected to hit 101% of gross domestic product by the end of the fiscal year, up from 79% at the end of fiscal 2019, the CBO said. The silver lining is that interest rates are projected to fall so low that the government’s net borrowing costs will decline even with the dramatic increase in borrowing, the CBO said. It sees the yield on 10-year Treasury notes hovering at 0.7% in the second half of this year and through 2021. The updated forecasts, published in a blog post by CBO Director Phillip Swagel, rest on assumptions that are “subject to enormous uncertainty.” These include the extent to which the coronavirus is brought under control in the coming months and the possibility of a subsequent re-emergence. Some degree of social distancing is expected to continue through the first half of 2021, the CBO said. But those measures are projected to diminish by roughly 75% in the second half of this year relative to the April-June quarter and continue easing into 2021. As a result, economic activity is projected to recover from its current nadir, but only gradually. GDP is expected to contract 5.6% in 2020 from last year and to grow 2.8% in 2021. The unemployment rate is seen topping out at 16% in the third quarter and declining to 9.5% by the end of 2021. But the CBO cautioned that those numbers understate the extent of damage because they only count people who are actively looking for a job.
Global arms spending tops $1.9 trillion as fight against COVID-19 is starved of resources - Amid the grim worldwide tally of over 3 million confirmed coronavirus cases and roughly 220,000 deaths—along with the scientific certainty that both figures grossly underestimate the real toll of the deadly virus—a report released this week provided another set of sobering statistics. According to the annual report issued by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending has reached a new post-Cold War high, topping $1.9 trillion in 2019. This is a vast quantity of social resources that has been funneled into the preparations for a new world war, under conditions in which humanity is confronting the ravages of a global pandemic. “This is the highest level of spending since the 2008 global financial crisis and probably represents a peak in expenditure,” Nan Tian, a researcher at SIPRI, told the AFP news agency. As always, US imperialism led the surge in ever more obscene levels of expenditure on militarism, accounting for 38 percent of global arms spending. Washington’s military budget for 2019 (fiscal 2020) was $738 billion, a 5.3 percent increase over the previous year, and equal to 3.4 percent of US GDP. US military spending exceeded that of the next 10 highest-spending countries combined. Driving this spike are the massive appropriations being made for the Pentagon’s nuclear triad—including new land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, new long-range bombers, a new cruise missile and a new nuclear-armed submarine. There has also been a focus on producing new smaller, more “usable” nuclear weapons, bringing the threat of a catastrophic war ever closer. The total figure given by the SIPRI does not include $12.6 billion appropriated to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the Department of Energy, for “Weapons Activities,” i.e., manufacturing, maintaining and modernizing US imperialism’s stockpile of nuclear missile warheads and bombs. The immense sums being spent to modernize and develop the US arsenal are in preparation for what US strategy documents define as “great power conflicts,” with China and Russia first among the targets. The Pentagon expects to spend $500 billion over ten years in modernizing all aspects of the US nuclear triad. US imperialism’s arms expenditures far exceed those of its “great power” rivals. In 2019, it spent well over two and a half times more than its chief economic rival, China, whose $261 billion military budget is the world’s second largest, and well over 10 times more than the supposed arch menace, Russia ($61.4 billion), which placed fourth on the list of top spending nations.
Max Blumenthal and Ben Norton With Michael Hudson: How The US Makes Countries Pay For Its Wars – Economics Of American Imperialism - (video & transcript) Yves here. Michael Hudson gives more insight into how America has created and perpetuates its empire. Max Blumenthal and Ben Norton discuss the economics of Washington’s empire, the role of the IMF and World Bank, attempts to create alternative financial systems like BRICS, and the new cold war on China and Russia. See Part 1: US Coronavirus “Bailout” Is a $6 Trillion Scam
Coronavirus: WHO row between US, China sees G20 leaders summit called off at last minute, source says --A planned video conference between G20 leaders on Friday was called off at the last minute due to a bitter quarrel between China and United States over the role of World Health Organisation, according to a source who was involved in the preparation for the call.The source, who declined to be named due to the private nature of the debates, said that the US has been insisting on holding the World Health Organisation (WHO) accountable for its early activities in handling the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed over 190,000 people across the globe, including close to 50,000 in the US.China, on the other hand, strongly refuses to discuss proposals to investigate the WHO, the source said.“As such, the conference was called off at the last minute,” they said, adding that the summit could still happen in the near future, if both sides can agree on a compromise over the WHO, or at least over the wording on the WHO in the G20 communique
Trump threatens new tariffs on China in retaliation for coronavirus - (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday his hard-fought trade deal with China was now of secondary importance to the coronavirus pandemic and he threatened new tariffs on Beijing, as his administration crafted retaliatory measures over the outbreak. Trump’s sharpened rhetoric against China reflected his growing frustration with Beijing over the pandemic, which has cost tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone, sparked an economic contraction and threatened his chances of re-election in November. Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a range of options against China were under discussion, but cautioned that efforts were in the early stages. Recommendations have not yet reached the level of Trump’s top national security team or the president, one official told Reuters. “There is a discussion as to how hard to hit China and how to calibrate it properly,” one of the sources said as Washington walks a tightrope in its ties with Beijing while it imports personal protection equipment (PPE) from there and is wary of harming a sensitive trade deal. Trump made clear, however, that his concerns about China’s role in the origin and spread of the coronavirus were taking priority for now over his efforts to build on an initial trade agreement with Beijing that long dominated his dealings with the world’s second-largest economy. “We signed a trade deal where they’re supposed to buy, and they’ve been buying a lot, actually. But that now becomes secondary to what took place with the virus,” Trump told reporters. “The virus situation is just not acceptable.” The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump’s top economic adviser denied the report. “The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters. Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: “Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don’t have to do that.”
Coronavirus relief: Investment firms spent millions lobbying Trump, Congress - Some of the world's largest investment firms combined to spend at least $3 million lobbying members of the Trump administration and lawmakers on a bill that was meant to give relief to those that have taken a financial hit due tothe coronavirus. Blackstone, the Carlyle Group and SoftBank took aim at the $2 trillion stimulus package that was signed by President Donald Trump in late March as the global pandemic was shaking the stock market and forcing millions of people out of work. These companies and their lobbyists engaged with Treasury officials and leaders in the House and Senate, records show. People close to two of these companies say the lobbying goals ranged from pushing for their portfolio companies to participate in the federal loan program to monitoring the legislation as it developed. None appear to be trying to get small business loans to go directly into the private equity industry. The discovery was made by CNBC after reviewing new first-quarter lobbying reports. Many leaders of these companies have ties to Trump himself, including Steve Schwarzman, CEO of private equity giant Blackstone. Schwarzman took part in a March 24 call with Trump and prominent investors such as Third Point's Dan Loeb, Intercontinental Exchange's Jeffrey Sprecher and Paul Tudor Jones. Though not all the forms say what the firms were specifically hoping to see in the bill, the move came as the American Investment Council, an organization whose members include the three firms, tried to influence the legislation on its own. The organization pushed for the Treasury's $500 billion economic stabilization fund to provide enough liquidity to larger businesses. The group also called on the $350 billion small business paycheck program to not discriminate on deciding who qualified for a relief loan, particularly if they're backed by private equity firms. The American Investment Council ended up spending $640,000 on lobbying in the first quarter alone, records show. The Small Business Administration last week announced that private equity firms and hedge funds were not getting any of the loans intended for small businesses. Trump recently signed a separate $484 billion stimulus bill with more than $300 billion of that total going to the small business loan system, which is officially known as the Paycheck Protection Program. SoftBank, a Japan-based conglomerate run by Masayoshi Son, with large tech investments and offices in the United States, said its lobbying campaign focused on the government allowing financial technology companies to be lenders for the PPP. The company, which has a market cap of close to $90 billion, spent $1.2 million on lobbying that in part went toward the bill. A representative told CNBC that two of its portfolio companies, Kabbage and SoFi, are now participating in the wake of their efforts.
Small-Business Loan Program Resumes With Reports of Delays – WSJ - The U.S. government reopened the pipeline for small-business loans and grants Monday, triggering a fresh chorus of complaints from lenders and borrowers about delays and glitches plaguing the approval process. The Small Business Administration’s electronic loan portal was overwhelmed by demand shortly after it opened Monday morning, according to banking industry groups, that say the process was also stymied by last-minute changes in guidance on how to submit applications. “The SBA’s systems were not designed to and are not capable of handling the volume of loans banks processed over the last several weeks for small businesses,” said Richard Hunt, chief executive of the Consumer Bankers Association, which represents national and regional banks. According to Mr. Hunt, the problems included extended periods when loans couldn’t be processed as well as system instability. At Resource Bank, an Illinois community lender located outside of Chicago, bankers successfully submitted half a dozen loans soon after the opening—but said the SBA’s portal became unresponsive within an hour and remained down the rest of the day. “I have a sense that money is going to go quickly, and here we are, we are locked out somehow while others drain the bucket.” The Paycheck Protection Program got off to a bumpy start April 3 as businesses rushed to get $350 billion worth of forgivable loans to help them survive fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The loans are made by banks and other lenders, and can be forgiven if companies use the money primarily to retain staff and for approved expenses such as rent. After funds were exhausted April 16 Congress last week appropriated an additional $310 billion for loans, which many have predicted would be insufficient to meet demand. Seeking a better process this time around, the SBA on Sunday unveiled steps aimed at preventing system crashes and smoothing out distribution of funds among participating banks. As part of that effort, the agency asked banks to submit applications in batches of 15,000 loans when its E-Tran loan portal reopened Monday morning. But by midday, the batch size was cut to 5,000, said SBA spokesman Jim Billimoria, a change made to address complaints by smaller banks that they were cut out of the process by the minimum.
Second round of PPP runs into familiar problems The Small Business Administration’s second round of Paycheck Protection Program loans opened on Monday, “triggering a fresh chorus of complaints from lenders and borrowers about delays and glitches plaguing the approval process,” the Wall Street Journal reported. The agency’s “electronic loan portal was overwhelmed by demand shortly after it opened Monday morning, according to banking industry groups, that say the process was also stymied by last-minute changes in guidance on how to submit applications. The SBA said it had processed more than 100,000 PPP loans through more than 4,000 lenders by late Monday afternoon.”“Many bankers complained about new technology glitches and fresh questions were raised about the mostly anonymous list of beneficiaries,” the Washington Post said. The program “has been overwhelmed, both because of a surge in applications and the uneven process by which some companies receive loans and others do not. Within an hour after the SBA reopened its online portal, known as E-Tran, for submissions Monday, banking officials began to complain that the system was either not working or was painfully slow.”“Some said they had been unable to load the web page at all, while others said they could load the portal but were unable to log in,” the Financial Times reported.The portal “kept crashing all day,” the New York Times said, “much to the frustration of bankers around the country who were trying — and failing — to apply on behalf of desperate clients.” Meanwhile, another high-profile entity — the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers, “one of the league’s richest teams” valued at more than $4 billion — disclosed that it “received and then returned” a $4.6 million PPP loan “amid the public uproar over the messy rollout as major brands were given millions of dollars while local mom-and-pop shops were shut out,” the Journal said. “Once we found out the funds from the program had been depleted, we repaid the loan so that financial support would be directed to those most in need,” the team said. “A handful of publicly traded companies say they aren’t planning to return loans despite pressure from the Trump administration to repay the funds,” the Post reports. “Companies in the hotel, cruise ship and medical-device sectors said they are qualified to receive the money and need the funds to stay in business.”
Coronavirus loan program approves more than $52 billion in relief - The Trump administration said it’s approved more than $52 billion in loan requests for small businesses so far in the relaunch of a coronavirus relief program, even as lenders said they’ve struggled to submit applications and advocates worry that funds will run out before many mom-and-pop businesses get help. The U.S. Small Business Administration said it’s processed almost 476,000 loan applications from almost 5,200 lenders as of 1 p.m. New York time Tuesday. The Paycheck Protection Program offers loans of as much as $10 million meant to keep workers at small businesses employed amid state stay-at-home orders. President Trump said there were twice as many lenders accessing the SBA’s system in the first 24 hours after the program’s restart than on any day of the initial round of funding. He said the agency also processed 30% more applications than on any previous day, and in smaller amounts. “Demand is extraordinarily high,” Trump said at a White House event featuring a coffee shop owner, an optometrist and others from small businesses that have received funding under the program. The initiative restarted Monday with an additional $320 billion that Congress approved last week, after the initial $349 billion ran out on April 16 in just 13 days. At the current pace of approvals, the additional funding will be exhausted in a matter of days. But the relaunch has been rocky, with lenders reporting they can’t access the SBA’s system amid a flood of applications. The program allows loans to become grants if proceeds are spent to maintain payrolls and for certain expenses for two months. The SBA on Tuesday told lenders they could not use robotic systems to help submit applications. With that measure, it said, the system “will be more reliable, accessible, and equitable for all small businesses.”
These businesses plan to keep their PPP loans, despite pressure from the Trump administration - A handful of publicly traded companies say they aren’t planning to return loans received from a small-business rescue program, despite pressure from the Trump administration to repay the funds.Companies in the hotel, cruise ship and medical-device sectors said they are qualified to receive the money under the Paycheck Protection Program and need the funds to stay in business.Their resistance comes days after the Small Business Administration suggested dozens of publicly held companies should give back money received from the Paycheck Protection Program by May 7.The agency said public companies with “substantial market value” and the ability to raise money through capital markets were not the intended recipients of the funds, which were meant to help small businesses battered by the novel coronavirus pandemic.ADTreasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin increased the pressure Tuesday morning, saying the government plans to audit all loans over $2 million before it forgives them. The rules call for the government to forgive the loans if companies use them to keep employees on the payroll."Anybody that took the money that shouldn’t have taken the money, one, it won’t be forgiven and two, they may be subject to criminal liability, which is a big deal,” Mnuchin said in an interview on Fox Business. “I encourage everybody to look at this and pay back these loans now so we can recycle the money if you made a mistake.”Some public companies, including Shake Shack, Kura Sushi USA and Ruth’s Chris Steak House, have already announced plans to return the money.Half a dozen lesser-known public companies contacted by The Washington Post, including CalAmp, a tech firm in Irvine, Calif., and Graham, a manufacturer in Batavia, N.Y., also said they would return the funds. Dozens of firms did not respond to requests for comment.
Government Is On The Hook To Forgive Hundreds Of Billions In PPP Loans, Has No Idea How They'll Do It - As with any piss-broke society that functions purely by taking on massive amounts of debt via money printing to try and keep itself afloat, the next obvious step after Central Banks make "loans" by printing money, is inevitable defaults. It looks like that's exactly what the U.S. government is now gearing up for with regards to loans they made just weeks ago and are continuing to make. The administration's Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program launched its second round on Monday, which allowed lenders to issue forgivable government guaranteed loans to small businesses affected by the coronavirus outbreak. Or, maybe just to anyone that fills out an application. We don't really know - the oversight has been a bit shaky to say the least, thus far. Regardless, the key element to the loan program (it's hilarious to even call them "loans") is the idea that the loans can be forgiven. After all, if given the choice to pay back your loan or have the government forgive it, which would you choose? Exactly. And that's why "smoothing the forgiveness process is critical for the program to succeed," according to Reuters. But the program is that the government hasn't issued any guidelines and exactly how to go about getting the loans forgiven. Plus, we think this will likely mean the obvious: we'll have fraud from both people who received the loans and from those who will eventually turn back to the government to have them "forgiven". Paul Merski, an executive at the Independent Community Bankers of America said: “Probably every PPP borrower expects their loan to be forgiven, but it is not that simple. There are rules and regulation to consider. So the borrower best have their information and paperwork in order.” Ah, yes. The rock-solid compliance step of good old fashioned paperwork. The terms of forgiveness for the loans are relatively simple: "...borrowers must spend 75% of the loan on payroll costs, such as salaries, tips, leave, severance pay and health insurance, within the first two months. The remaining 25% can be spent on other running costs, such as rent and utilities. Money spent on non-qualifying expenses must be repaid at an annual rate of 1% within two years."
Why Don’t We Just Provide an Emergency Basic Income to Businesses? - On April 1st I used the Small Business Administration’s Payroll Protection Program as an example of a program from the CARES act congress most egregiously designed from a budgetary point of view: As I predicted, the program ran out of funds last week. Congress did indeed drag its feet for a week in negotiations over extending it, finally approving a paltry 310 billion dollars yesterday. In addition to the predictions I made, there were problems I didn’t discuss (though have been concerned about). The structure of the compensation (as well as the incentives banks face in general) meant they prioritized larger and wealthier clients in access to the funds. This was worsened by the structure of the fees, which should have been lump sum amounts (or even provided greater compensation for processing smaller dollar loans) but instead provided compensation based on percentages of loan size. This created the obvious incentive to focus energy on processing large loans for big clients rather than small clients. As if all this wasn’t enough, Small Business Administration rules meant that the 500 employee limit applied per establishment and not per business as a whole so a number of medium sized businesses were able to get access. In addition, franchises of larger businesses also qualify since they aren’t technically considered under the control of their large multinational corporation franchisors. Medium sized enterprises have been returning funds amid the public backlash. In other words, the Payroll Protection Program has been a mess. Its cap has created a political battle that has reinforced for the public that there isn’t enough to go around so we must fight each other over what little we can eek out. It has created administrative hurdles that have delayed the process of getting money out the door and threatened the capacity for the program to preserve payroll. Its time limited nature has meant that this is only a stop-gap, even for those who get funds. This adds to longstanding problems with the Small Business Administration. It has always had a race problem both in being unwilling to take on additional credit uncertainty (which cuts out Black borrowers with little equity), including not being willing to provide start-up financing. This brings me to the title of this post- why are we bothering with this complicated structure in the first place? Why rely on banks which are used to providing credit screening when the purpose of our desired oversight isn’t repayment and we want to save as many businesses and jobs as possible?
‘No Consequences for Negligence That Kills’: McConnell Wants Corporate Immunity From Covid-19 Lawsuits - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is demanding that Congress use the next Covid-19 stimulus bill to shield corporations from legal responsibility for workers who contract the novel coronavirus on the job, throwing his support behind a proposal pushed in recent weeks by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other right-wing organizations.The Kentucky Republican said in a statement Monday that companies could be hit with “years of endless lawsuits” if Congress doesn’t provide employers with liability protections as states begin reopening their economies.“McConnell wants to immunize companies from liability when they make their workers go back to work, and those workers inevitably get sick,” tweeted The Atlantic‘s Adam Serwer.In a Monday interview on Fox News Radio on the heels of his statement, McConnell said he considers liability protections for companies a non-negotiable demand for the next coronavirus stimulus legislation. Progressives are calling for a package that provides more protections for frontline workers and the unemployed.“That’s going to be my red line,” McConnell said. “Trial lawyers are sharpening their pencils to come after healthcare providers and businesses, arguing that somehow the decision they made with regard to reopening adversely affected the health of someone else.”Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, tweeted that McConnell is arguing that companies “should have the right to be negligent, and suffer no consequences for negligence that kills their staff.” “At the present moment, do we want to tweak incentives to make employers more negligent, or less negligent?” Wolfers asked.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) called McConnell’s demand for corporate immunity “subterfuge” in an interview on MSNBC Tuesday morning, but did not rule out the proposal as part of a broader relief package.Drew Hammill, deputy chief of staff for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), told Politico that “the House has no interest in diminishing protections for employees and customers.”McConnell’s comments came a week after President Donald Trump said the White House is looking for ways to protect companies from legal action by workers who are infected with Covid-19 on the job.“We are trying to take liability away from these companies,” Trump told reporters during a Coronavirus Task Force briefing last Monday. “We just don’t want that because we want the companies to open and to open strong.”
Looking at “The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for COVID-19” with a Critical Eye -Lambert Strether -The Wall Street produced an intriguing piece the other day, “The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19,” which while picked up and signal-boosted by other venues — Business Insider, Daily Mail, Newsweek, Beckers Hospital Review (the best) — doesn’t seem to have generated any additional reporting. The scientists, billing themselves as “Scientists to Stop COVID-19,” have produced an oddly untitled deliverable[1] (PDF, seventeen pages) dated March and April 2020. It’s worth a read. (Two hours ago, news came that the administration has initiated “Project Warp Speed,” which seems inspired by this project, but there’s no reporting on personnel, and it’s not clear they adopted the recommendations of the scientists. I’m guessing that the issues I am about to raise for the deliverable of the “Secret Group” will also apply to Project Warp Speed[2].)Given that “personnel is policy,” I’ll first reduce people mentioned in the Wall Street Journal story, and the scientists who signed the March-April deliverable to tabular form. After that, I will take a quick look at the scientists’ deliverable, focusing especially on issues of governance and restoring our economy. Now let’s look at the billionaire and multimillionaire backers of… well, whatever the project is really called; I’ll call it, following the Wall Street Journal, the Secret Group. In addition to backers, there are also fixers, who connect the backers and the scientists to the administration, agencies, and other firms, primarily in Big Pharma. I have ordered the backers and fixers not alphabetically but by net worth.
US billionaires increase wealth by $280 billion since March, as millions unable to get unemployment benefits - The billionaires in the United States have increased their wealth by $282 billion since the mid-March stock decline, according to a new report by the Institute for Policy Studies. While more than one fifth of the American population is now unemployed, and millions are deprived of basic needs and confront an uncertain future, the fortunes of the ultra-rich have not only recovered, they are improving substantially. Jeff Bezos’s fortune increased by $25 billion between January 1 and April 15. Never in history has any individual made so much wealth so quickly. As the report noted, “this is larger than the Gross Domestic Product of Honduras, which was $23.9 billion in 2018.”Eight billionaires, so-called “pandemic profiteers,” have increased their wealth, each, by over $1 billion during this time: Jeff Bezos (Amazon), MacKenzie Bezos (Amazon), Eric Yuan (Zoom), Steve Ballmer (Microsoft), John Albert Sobrato (Silicon Valley real estate), Elon Musk, Joshua Harris (Apollo, financial asset management) and Rocco Comisso (Mediacom, cable and internet). The $2.2 trillion CARES Act gives only $550 billion to direct payments and extended unemployment, which most people have yet to receive. Of the remaining more than $1.7 trillion, $500 billion goes directly to bailing out major corporations. While $377 billion ostensibly goes to small businesses, most have not seen a penny, as the banks pocketed $10 billion in fees and larger companies largely consumed the available funds.The CARES Act also contains within it an additional $173 billion in tax breaks to super-wealthy individuals and companies. For example, it allows households earning at least $500,000 a year to reduce their taxes by substantially increasing deductions from business losses and applying them to taxable money earned on the stock market.All of this is on top of trillions being funneled into the financial markets and corporate coffers by the Federal Reserve.
Pelosi says universal basic income could be 'worthy of attention now' as coronavirus stifles economy - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that Congress may need to consider a guaranteed minimum income for Americans as one way to meet people's basic needs while the country remains paralyzed by the coronavirus pandemic. "Let's see what works, what is operational and what needs attention," Pelosi, D-Calif., said in an interview with MSNBC. "Others have suggested a minimum income, a guaranteed income for people. Is that worthy of attention now? Perhaps so. Because there are many more people than just in small business and hired by small business ... that may need some assistance as well," she added. The idea of a government-guaranteed minimum income has gained attention in the past year thanks largely to Andrew Yang, who ran in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary on a platform built around universal basic income. Yang failed to win any delegates in the primary, but he built a devoted campaign following and raised the issue of UBI onto the national debate stage. More recently, as the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the U.S. economy and forced more than 25 million Americans to seek unemployment benefits, the idea of guaranteed income has reemerged as a possible way to stabilize the economy and help people meet their basic needs while millions of businesses are under forced closures. In one of the last policy speeches of his 2020 presidential campaign, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders proposed in mid-March that Congress give every household in America $2,000 a month for the duration of the Covid-19 outbreak. "We need to provide a direct emergency $2,000 cash payment to every household in America every month for the duration of the crisis to provide them with the assistance they need to pay their bills and take care of their families," said Sanders. Supporters of UBI have also noted the similarities between guaranteed income plans and the $1,200 cash payment for every American making less than $90,000 annually, which was included in the $2 trillion CARES Act passed by Congress and signed into law by the president March 27.
Birx says US needs a testing ‘breakthrough’ to screen large numbers of people - The percentage of people who die after testing positive for the coronavirus is rising even as thousands of new U.S. cases are identified each day, a troubling preview of the weeks and months that lie ahead. Epidemiologists and experts say increased case fatality rates are a natural function of a deadly virus running its course: The people who succumb today were probably infected as long as a month ago, when the number of cases began accelerating. "As the epidemic picks up and you see a sudden rise [in cases], deaths will be very low," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Prevention at the University of Minnesota. "It's just new onsets. And then as they work through the process, becoming severely ill, becoming hospitalized, being in the ICU and then dying, it's a long-term process of three or up to four weeks." That long-term process is starting to show itself in states that were at the heart of the second wave of the outbreak in the U.S. In Connecticut, where commuter communities outside New York City have been hit hard, the case fatality rate has risen 3 percentage points in just two weeks. Today, 7.6 percent of all confirmed COVID-19 patients have died, among the highest rates in the nation. That equates to 1,431 deaths over just the last two weeks. In Massachusetts, Louisiana and Minnesota, case fatality rates are up 2 points, to 5.3 percent, 6.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. Massachusetts has been hit particularly hard. Nearly 30,000 Bay State residents have tested positive in just the past two weeks, and 2,143 have died. Other states where fatality rates are on the rise include large states with significant outbreaks such as California and Illinois and smaller states that have seen fewer cases such as Maine, Vermont and West Virginia. The overall mortality rate among those who contract the coronavirus is unknown because so many people can be asymptomatic and might never be tested. Antibody tests conducted in some U.S. cities suggest that hundreds of thousands of people, and perhaps as many as a million in New York City, have been infected — far greater than the number of people who have tested positive.
Trump health official says US will 'easily' conduct 8 million coronavirus tests in May- A top Trump administration health official said Monday the U.S. will “easily” perform eight million tests next month, as the White House rolled out steps aimed at increasing testing capacity. “According to the governors plans for next month, we will easily double that 4 million number,” Brett Giroir, an assistant secretary of Health and Human Services, said during a press conference at the White House. He said the administration would be sending out more of the key testing items that have been in short supply recently, including 20 million swabs and 15 million tubes needed to transport samples. However, 8 million tests in May would still fall well short of the amount leading health experts say is needed to safely reopen the economy. Harvard researchers said last week that at least 500,000 tests per day, or about 15 million tests per month are needed. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, recently said the country's needs are “closer to” 3 million tests per week, or about 12 million per month. In the past week, the U.S. was conducting an average of 200,000 tests per day, according to the Covid Tracking Project. In addition to Giroir, various CEOs spoke Monday's press briefing and announced plans to increase testing, such as setting up more testing sites at CVS parking lots. As pressure mounts on the administration to increase testing, the White House released a “blueprint” on testing strategy. The document largely summarized actions the administration has already taken and put the responsibility on states for key tasks. It did not include specific testing targets.
White House releases coronavirus testing plan, claims most of its work is done – The Trump administration unveiled a new strategy Monday to help states ramp up their capacity to test for coronavirus, claiming most of its work is done, according to new documents. The two documents obtained by NBC News include a testing "overview" and a testing "blueprint." "We're deploying the full power and strength of the federal government to help states, cities, to help local government get this plague over with," Trump said when he formally announced the plan at a news conference in the Rose Garden on Monday afternoon. The first document, the testing overview, largely serves as a defense of the administration's widely criticized handling of the coronavirus testing since the start of the epidemic. It outlines eight responsibilities that it says belong to the federal government, and claims to have already completed seven of these. The other document, a testing "blueprint," describes what it calls a "partnership" between states, the federal government and the private sector. The partnership it describes leaves the lion's share of responsibility for funding, designing and executing a coronavirus testing plan to individual states. But states have repeatedly called for the federal government to shoulder the bulk of the responsibility for testing and tracing future coronavirus infections, arguing that they lack the funding and the expertise the federal government possesses. Trump is also expected to announce Monday that the federal government is prepared to send all 50 states enough tests and testing materials to screen at least 2% of the population of each state per month. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the new federal testing efforts. Before heading out to the Rose Garden, Trump told reporters in an Oval Office briefing that the plan is aimed at expanding testing, particularly in African American and Hispanic communities. The ability to repeatedly and widely test at-risk populations is the cornerstone of any responsible plan to reopen the nation's economy. The president has called on states to lift stay-at-home orders and reopen, but most governors still think it is too early. Trump's critics have zeroed in on the nationwide shortages of effective coronavirus tests, testing supplies, and labs able to process test results as a central failure of the federal government's response to the deadly pandemic. Trump has angrily rejected this criticism, however. "States, not the Federal Government, should be doing the Testing," he said in a tweet last week. Monday's new documents underscore the limited role Trump wants the federal government to take in expanding testing, despite their repeated mentions of "partnering" with states.
Coronavirus testing chief says 'no way on Earth' US can test 5 million a day - There's "no way on Earth" the U.S. can test 5 million people a day for the coronavirus, the government's top testing official said in an interview, just hours before President Donald Trump vowed that the country would be able to test that many people daily "very soon.""There is absolutely no way on Earth, on this planet or any other planet, that we can do 20 million tests a day, or even five million tests a day," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of health who is in charge of the government's testing response, told TIME in an interview he gave Tuesday morning that was published later in the evening. The interview took place before Trump's eye-popping pledge about testing.Speaking to reporters the following day, Trump denied having said there would be 5 million tests per day, but he added that he does believe there will, in fact, be 5 million tests per day at some point."Somebody came out with a study of 5 million people. Do I think we will? I think we will, but I never said it," Trump claimed during an event at the White House. "Somebody started throwing around 5 million. I didn't say 5 million," the president insisted, adding, "Well, we will be there. But I didn't say it. I didn't say it."The U.S. will be able to test 8 million per month by May, Giroir told Time. Giroir was responding to a new study's findings. Harvard University published a report last week that said the U.S. would need to ramp up testing capacity to at least 5 million tests a day by early June, and 20 million per day by late July, in order to reopen the economy. Giroir told TIME that the assessment is "an Ivory Tower, unreasonable benchmark," adding that it's not needed based on current modelling. Trump, when asked at a news briefing about the 5 million figure later Tuesday, said, "We're going to be there very soon."
Coronavirus: U.S. to become 1st country with a million cases - The United States is set to become the first country in the world to confirm 1 million coronavirus cases, more than four times the number of infections in each of Europe’s two hardest-hit nations, Spain and Italy. The seven-figure milestone, expected to be confirmed Monday by Johns Hopkins University, comes three months after U.S. officials detected the country’s first case in Washington state, where a Seattle-area man tested positive for COVID-19 days after returning from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus is believed to have originated. Since then, the fast-spreading disease has spread to all 50 states, killed more than 55,000 Americans and forced millions of people into isolation. Several states are now beginning to lift restrictions even as U.S. officials warn that social isolation needs to continue for months. The Trump administration on Monday was reviewing draft guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for how schools, restaurants, churches and businesses can safely reopen. “Social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases,” Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. In New York, Gov. Cuomo said each business that wants to reopen would have to submit a plan seeking approval. Speaking to reporters at his daily coronavirus news briefing, Cuomo said the disease is still spreading even though the number of hospitalizations and deaths continues to fall. Advertisement “The number is down from the past few days, but that’s no solace for 337 families who are suffering today," he said, referring to the number of coronavirus patients who died across the state on Sunday. New testing data suggests that nearly one in four New Yorkers — or about 2 million people — have contracted COVID-19 since the pandemic began spreading in the city about two months ago. Johns Hopkins’ data also shows that more than 100,000 Americans who tested positive for the virus have fully recovered. Another milestone reached on Monday was the number of confirmed global cases, which surpassed 3 million for the first time.
Feinstein to McConnell: Cancel plan to bring Senate back amid coronavirus pandemic -Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is urging Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to cancel his plan to bring the Senate back to Washington, D.C., on Monday, saying the House did the "right thing" by deciding not to return next week. "I ask the majority leader to reconsider his plan to reconvene the Senate. He would bring 100 senators and many more staff members and reporters into close proximity while Washington itself remains under a stay-at-home order. There is no way to do this without increased risk. This is the wrong example for the country," Feinstein said in a statement. Feinstein — who at 86 is the oldest senator — sent a letter to McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday that said the GOP leader should change his plans "in the interest of public health and sending the right message to the nation." "The only things that have been shown to reduce the rate of infection are sheltering in place and social distancing, neither of which is possible if we return to the Capitol. This is not the time to back off of protective measures when the disease is not yet in check," Feinstein wrote. McConnell has doubled down on his plan to bring the Senate back to Washington next week, telling Fox News Radio earlier Wednesday that senators would not "sit on the sidelines." "We feel like if people on the front lines are willing to work during the pandemic, we should be as well. And so the Senate will come back; we'll be in session next week," he added.
Dr. Anthony Fauci warns US could 'be in for a bad fall' if coronavirus treatments don't work - The United States "could be in for a bad fall" if researchers don't find an effective treatment to fight the coronavirus by then, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. The virus will certainly make a comeback in the U.S. even as cases begin to stabilize, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said during an interview with The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Covid-19 is "not going to disappear from the planet," he said, adding infectious disease experts are learning about how the virus behaves by watching emerging outbreaks in other regions such as southern Africa that are starting to enter their colder seasons. "In my mind, it's inevitable that we will have a return of the virus, or maybe even that it never went away," he said. Fauci also warned against states reopening businesses prematurely, saying it could cause "a rebound to get us right back in the same boat that we were in a few weeks ago." The virus, which emerged in Wuhan, China, almost four months ago, has sickened more than 3 million people worldwide and killed at least 212,000 as of Tuesday morning, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Roughly a third of the global cases are in the United States, making it the worst outbreak in the world. U.S. officials say that they are preparing to battle two bad viruses circulating at the same time as the coronavirus outbreak runs into flu season next fall and winter. Fauci said Tuesday that he is "cautiously optimistic" researchers can develop a vaccine to prevent Covid-19, but added nothing is ever "a guarantee." U.S. health officials have been fast-tracking work with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine to prevent the disease. They began their first human trials on March 16. Fauci said the virus has been shown to be "highly transmissible," adding the emergence of this virus "exploded upon us" and has kept him up at night. "Everyone is at risk unlike some infections," he said.
Fauci Warns Bad Second Wave of Coronavirus Could Hit U.S. - Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease specialist and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, warned that the U.S. "could be in for a bad fall" and a bad winter if it does not contain COVID-19 before then, according to CNBC.His assessment backed predictions from the Centers for Disease Control, which released a report that said a second wave could be worse because it may coincide with cold and flu season, according to USA Today. However, last week, President Trump seemed to refute that assessment, saying last week "it may not come back at all."Speaking to reporters of the report that CDC Director Robert Redfield released, Trump said, "He's talking about a worst-case scenario where you have a big flu and you have some (coronavirus). And if it does come back, it's not going to come back ... like it was. Also, we have much better containment now."Before nobody knew about it. Nobody knew anything about it. Now, if we have pockets, a little pocket here or there, we're going to have it put out. It goes out, and it's going to go out fast. We're going to be watching for it. But it's also possible it doesn't come back at all."On Tuesday, Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, was interviewed by The Economic Club in Washington, DC, when he said that COVID-19 is not going away and leading infectious disease specialists like him are watching how the virus behaves in the southern hemisphere, which is moving toward its cold season, according to CNBC.He added that how the fall and winter looks in the U.S. will depend on what types of preventive steps are put in place now."If by that time we have put into place all of the countermeasures that you need to address this, we should do reasonably well," said Dr. Fauci, as CNN reported. "If we don't do that successfully, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter."He noted that if states are start to lift social distancing guidelines too early, the country may the virus rebound and "get us right back in the same boat that we were a few weeks ago," adding that the country could see many more deaths than are currently predicted, according to CNN.To thwart a second wave, Fauci said the U.S. needed to have improved testing; a way to track cases; and the ability to isolate infected Americans so the virus does not spread.
A Judge Sided With Native American Tribes Challenging How The Trump Administration Is Handling Coronavirus Relief Money The Trump administration cannot distribute coronavirus relief money intended to help Native American communities respond to the coronavirus pandemic to certain for-profit Native corporations, a federal judge ruled Monday evening. It's the first loss in court for the government over how administration officials are managing the billions of dollars that Congress approved in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Dozens of tribal governments raced to court in the past two weeks to challenge the Treasury Department's decision to make Alaska Native Corporations (ANCs) eligible for $8 billion in funding set aside to benefit Native American tribes. The tribal governments that sued argued that they stood to lose out on potentially millions of dollars if they had to share the pool with ANCs. The ANCs, established by a 1971 law governing how Alaska Natives manage and benefit from their land, have shareholders — primarily members of Native American tribes — and boards of directors, and they serve as holding companies for businesses that range from construction and pipeline maintenance to janitorial and food services. There are 574 federally recognized Native American tribes and 237 ANCs across Alaska, according to court papers. Tribal governments argued they needed the money to deliver services to communities hit hard by COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, including providing health care, buying personal protective equipment, and delivering meals to the elderly and children. They asked the court to enter an immediate injunction since the Treasury Department was set to begin sending the money as early as April 28. US District Judge Amit Mehta, who heard arguments last week, agreed with the tribal governments that ANCs didn't qualify as the type of "tribal government" that Congress referenced in approving the relief money. Under the definition of "tribal government" that Congress relied on in the CARES Act, the judge wrote, a tribal government had to be eligible for special programs provided by the US government to Native Americans, and it had to be formally recognized by the US government as the governing body of a tribe. The ANCs don't fall into those categories, he wrote.
We Need a Shadow Government - Peter Dorman - To overcome the pandemic we need four things:
- A rapid increase in the production and dissemination of personal protective equipment, first to the health care sector and then to other workers who can’t avoid social contact. This should be mandated and organized by the government through established emergency powers.
- Mandatory use of face masks in public by everyone—no exceptions. Masks, even simple homemade cloth coverings, are highly effective in reducing transmission. (No, they don’t do much to shield the wearer from ambient exposures; yes they eliminate most transmission by the wearer.)
- The government should make an immense expansion of testing capability its top priority. No resources should be spared. In addition, all available R&D capability should be directed toward improving the specificity and sensitivity of testing methods.
- Measures should be taken immediately to establish a network of local and regional contact tracing systems. Doing this in a manner that minimizes broader loss of privacy risks should be a primary concern. Between vastly expanded testing and contact tracing, we have a pathway out of economic lockdown without inviting an even more devastating second wave of infections and deaths.
Economically, we need three broad initiatives:
- A payments moratorium, with no accrued interest. No rents, mortgages, premiums or other payments for essential services. This means stopping the clock for the duration of unavoidable economic restrictions.
- Universal income maintenance. Income streams disrupted by the response to the pandemic should be sustained at public expense, with some percent reduction to reflect reduced spending opportunities—especially if a payments moratorium is also in effect.\
- Liberal use of the Fed’s asset book to finance public services and sustain incomes. We should have unrestricted ability to borrow to achieve all of the above, and the Fed should be authorized to purchase all such loan instruments. Money should never be a constraint on policy, only realconstraints like people, skills, resources and productive capacity.
My reading of the policy chatter is that, while emphases differ, in broad terms both agendas have overwhelming professional support. What they lack is a political vehicle. In a better world, that vehicle would be the Democratic Party, which would establish a shadow government to refine these proposals and push for their adoption. It would assemble committees for particular policy areas, conduct regular—even daily—press briefings, organize petition campaigns, and in general act as though it had responsibility for progress in this country in economics and public health. In their absence, which is the world we actually live in, no one is assuming this responsibility, and policy is in chaos.
The US Political System Is to Blame for This Pandemic - When historians ask why the United States became the world’s epicenter for the coronavirus, the temptation will be to blame it all on Donald Trump. After all, why wouldn’t they? Trump disbanded the National Security Council’s pandemic response team in 2018. He scrapped an early warning program for pandemics just three months before the current outbreak. Most of his appointees who had been briefed on possible scenarios by outgoing Obama officials fell victim to his administration’s record-breaking turnover rate. And despite having been repeatedly warned about the virus, not least in his January intelligence briefings, Trump played down its severity for months, fatally misinforming his supporters, and even held rallies. And yet this isn’t the whole story. The breathtaking failure of the wealthiest, most technologically advanced empire in human history to deal with this pandemic is the result of a perfect storm of decades of bipartisan decision-making.Perhaps the clearest factor is the continued lack of any form of universal health care in the United States. Opposition to this essential reform has been the official position of the leadership of both major parties since at least 2016. With anywhere between 25 and 54 percent of Americans delaying their search for health care for fear of what it would cost, the reluctance of countless people to get tested or treated certainly assisted the spread of the virus.Those that did seek testing or treatment suffered the consequences, hit withthousands of dollars in medical bills — nearly $35,000 for one woman. This problem has only gotten worse since millions began losing their employer-provided insurance due to the dizzying number of job losses that accompanied weeks of lockdown.But universal coverage is only part of the sorry picture. The US for-profit health care “system” has brought about a spate of closures of hospitals that had ceased being profitable, including at least thirty that went bankrupt in 2019. Things have been particularly severe in rural areas, with 120 rural hospitals closing over the last decade, reaching a high with nineteen closures last year. Not only do such closures push patients to seek treatment outside of their insurance network, meaning more sky-high medical bills. For some people, particularly in isolated rural areas, it leaves them with nowhere to go in the middle of a pandemic.
No leadership and no plan: is Trump about to fail the US on coronavirus testing? - A broad coalition of US health systems has mobilized to ramp up coronavirus testing in a national effort on a scale not seen since the second world war. But declarations of false victory by the Trump administration and a vacuum of federal leadership have undermined the endeavor, leading experts to warn that reopening the US could result in a disaster. Interviews with agents on the frontlines of the coronavirus battle – lab directors, chemists, manufacturers, epidemiologists, academics and technologists – reveal as diverse an application of the legendary American ingenuity as the century has seen. Test kit manufacturers are running production lines around the clock to triple their output, and triple it again. A private healthcare institute in California has constructed a mega-lab to process thousands of tests daily and deliver the results by text message alert. In smaller labs across the country, microbiologists improvise each day to fill unpredictable supply chain gaps that might leave them without swabs one day, and without crucial chemicals the next. “It’s incredible what we’ve done together over a short period of time,” Donald Trump said at a White House briefing this week, praising his administration’s response to the pandemic. But analysts say that without centralized governance and coordination, the national effort remains a competing coalition of state and local outfits hampered by duplicated work, competition for supplies, siloed pursuits of non-transferable solutions and red tape that leaves some labs with testing backlogs and others with excess capacity. All of which leaves the US without a unified, coherent strategy for testing and contact tracing to contain a virus that does not respect state borders and has already killed more than 60,000 Americans. Without it, the imminent experiment of reopening the country could be catastrophic, warned Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina in a conference call with reporters this week. “My concern is that we’ll end up right where we have been, with major cities having healthcare systems that get overrun quickly because of major outbreaks,” Mina said. Meanwhile, as states begin to relax social distancing measures, the Trump administration is spreading dangerous misinformation, denying persistent supply shortages, underestimating the number of Covid-19 cases and exaggerating the margin of safety conferred by the current volume of testing and contact-tracing, experts say. “We’ve done more than 200,000 tests in a single day,” Mike Pence said at a taskforce briefing this week, in which Trump touted testing as “one of the great assets that we have” in reopening the US. But at current testing levels, with only rudimentary plans for contact tracing for new cases, the US will be flying virtually blind as it reopens, said Glen Weyl, a technologist who co-authored a report issued by Harvard’s Safra Center for Ethics that calls for 5m tests a day by early June.
GOP memo urges anti-China assault over coronavirus - The National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent campaigns a detailed, 57-page memo authored by a top Republican strategist advising GOP candidates to address the coronavirus crisis by aggressively attacking China. The memo includes advice on everything from how to tie Democratic candidates to the Chinese government to how to deal with accusations of racism. It stresses three main lines of assault: That China caused the virus “by covering it up,” that Democrats are “soft on China,” and that Republicans will “push for sanctions on China for its role in spreading this pandemic.” “Coronavirus was a Chinese hit-and-run followed by a cover-up that cost thousands of lives,” the April 17 memo states.The document urges candidates to stay relentlessly on message against the country when responding to any questions about the virus. When asked whether the spread of the coronavirus is Trump’s fault, candidates are advised to respond by pivoting to China. “Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China,” the memo states.Republicans have indicated they plan to make China a centerpiece of the 2020 campaign. Trump’s reelection campaign recently released a web videopainting Joe Biden as cozy with the authoritarian country. The pro-Trump super PAC America First Action has launched several TV commercials tying Biden to China.The GOP’s planned China-focused assault, however, is complicated by Trump’s occasional praise for President Xi Jinping. The liberal organization American Bridge recently launched a commercial which plays a clip of the president praising Xi and declares that Trump “gave China his trust.”
AOC and her communist buddies embrace a COVID-19 world - Two theories are circulating about the origin of the COVID-19 coronavirus. The media are still selling the idea that it probably arose from an infected bat at an outdoor live-animal food market in Wuhan. That’s also the Chinese Communist Party’s line. The media don’t want people thinking that communist researchers at the Wuhan Virology Institute’s BSL-4 lab might have been directly responsible. However, the most plausible scenario is that the virus was, indeed, cooked up in the lab. Former CIA officer Clare Lopez makes that case in her April 20 article “Made in China” for the Citizens Commission on National Security. Beyond debate is that the communists covered up the outbreak for weeks — assisted by the World Health Organization (WHO) — as it morphed into a worldwide pandemic that has killed hundreds of thousands and crushed the world’s economy. Not everyone is unhappy about the latter. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) says she’s thrilled by the crash of the oil industry, which has cost hundreds of thousands of jobs and could put many U.S. producers out of business.“You absolutely love to see it,” she tweeted. “This along with record low interest rates means it’s the right time for a worker-led, mass investment in green infrastructure to save our planet.” AOC’s lurch into green insanity was promptly deleted. But it was only the latest such blast from the young face of the Marxist wing of the Democratic Party, which has taken over its host.
President Trump Confirms "High Degree Of Confidence" That COVID-19 Originated In Wuhan Lab: Live Updates - During a Q&A session with the press after his remarks on "Protecting America's Seniors", President Trump confirmed that he has seen evidence that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology... Reporter:"Have you seen anything at this point that gives you a high degree of confidence that the [Wuhan lab] was the origin? Trump:"Yes, I have... Yeah I have, and I think the WHO should be ashamed of themselves because they were like the public relations agency for China.""They shouldn't be making excuses when people make horrible mistakes, especially mistakes that are causing hundreds of thousands of people around the world to die," the president continued. "I think the World Health Organization should be ashamed of themselves."The conversation drifted but the reporter came back to confirm:"What gives you a high degree of confidence that this originated in the [Wuhan lab]..."Trump responded:"I can't tell you that... I am not allowed to tell you that."Earlier during the same event, Trump was asked whether Chinese President Xi Jinping should be held responsible for the coronavirus outbreak."I don't want to say that, but certainly it could have been stopped," the president said. "I wish they stopped it. The whole world wishes they stopped it."
China Accuses US 'Telling Barefaced Lies' On Coronavirus - Beijing accuses the United States of deflecting blame from its own 'poor epidemic prevention and control measures'. Beijing urged Washington on Tuesday to stop blaming others to cover up its poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Geng Shuang, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, made the remarks at a regular press briefing in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest attacks on China over the pandemic. Geng stressed that the timeline of China's response to the outbreak is quite clear and criticized some U.S. politicians for telling lies in disregard of the facts. The only purpose of their lies is to shift the blame for their poor handling of the outbreak, he said, noting that "facts speak louder than words." The attempt to shift the blame will not erase the achievements of the Chinese people in fighting COVID-19 through arduous efforts, or will it help with the pandemic response in the U.S., he said. The spokesperson urged U.S. politicians to review their own problems and control the outbreak at home as soon as possible, rather than slandering others and shifting the blame. Geng also responded to White House trade adviser Peter Navarro's accusation that China sent low-quality and even counterfeit coronavirus antibody testing kits to the United States.
"China Did A Lot Of Things Right": Bill Gates Defends CCP, Slams America Over Handling Of Coronavirus - Bill Gates vehemently defended China's initial response to the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday, telling CNN's Fareed Zakaria that the communist country - which silenced whistleblowers and lied about transmissibility - "did a lot of things right." "How would you respond to the charge that the Chinese covered this up. They've essentially deceived the rest of the world, and as a result, they should be held in some way responsible for this?" asked Zakaria.To which Gates responded: "Well, I don't think that's a timely thing because it doesn't affect how we act today. You know, China did a lot of things right. At the beginning, like any country where a virus first shows up, they can look back and say that they missed some things," Gates said, adding "Some countries did respond very quickly and get their testing in place, and they avoided the incredible economic pain - and it's sad that even the US that you would have expected to do this well, did it particularly poorly - but it's not time to talk about that."Gates then suggested that this is the time "to take the great science we have, the fact that we're in this together, fix testing and treatments and get that vaccine, and minimize the trillions in dollars and many things that you can't even dimensionalize in economic terms that are awful about the situation that we're in."That's a distraction," Gates added, regarding placing the blame on China. "I think there's a lot of incorrect and unfair things said." Watch:
Bank of China asks CME to probe 'abnormal fluctuations' in oil futures – (Reuters) - Bank of China (BoC) said it had hired lawyers to formally send a letter to CME Group, urging the U.S. exchange operator to investigate reasons behind “abnormal fluctuations” in crude oil futures prices on April 21. The bank is facing investor fury over heavy losses on an oil-related investment product after an unprecedented crash in energy markets. BoC said in a statement late on Wednesday that it would continue negotiating with investors, would shoulder responsibilities under the current legal framework and was seeking to respond to customers’ “reasonable requests” as early as possible. Prices for the May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract fell below zero for the first time on April 20, ending at minus $37.63 a barrel. Oil prices have tumbled this year due to a slump in global demand caused by the coronavirus, a price war triggered by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and a shortage of storage for excess oil, leading to steep falls in many oil-linked products. CME, which owns the New York Mercantile Exchange where WTI futures trade, had updated its systems in early April to be able to process negative prices. BoC said last week it would settle trades for its retail investor crude oil product, also known as crude oil “bao”, at negative prices, causing investor outrage as they felt BoC should have done more to protect their interests.
'Once Upon a Virus': China mocks U.S. coronavirus response in Lego-like animation - (Reuters) - China has published a short animation titled “Once Upon a Virus” mocking the U.S. response to the new coronavirus using Lego-like figures to represent the two countries. Washington and Beijing are locked in a war of words over the origins of the disease, which emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan and has grown into a global pandemic. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was confident the coronavirus may have originated in a Chinese virology lab, but declined to describe the evidence. In the animation posted online by China’s official Xinhua news agency, red curtains open to reveal a stage featuring Lego-like figures in the form of a terracotta warrior wearing a face mask and the Statue of Liberty. “We discovered a new virus,” says the warrior. “So what?” replies the Statue of Liberty. “It’s only a flu.” As the warrior issues warnings about the virus and counts off the grim milestones in China’s outbreak, the Statue of Liberty replies dismissively with echoes of Trump’s press conferences in which he played down the severity of the illness. “Are you listening to yourselves?” asks the warrior as the statue begins to turn red with fever and gets hooked up to an intravenous drip. “We are always correct, even though we contradict ourselves,” the statue replies. “That’s what I love about you Americans, your consistency,” says the warrior. The United States and other countries have accused China of misleading the world about the severity of the outbreak, and there are growing calls for an international inquiry into the origins of the virus. In an interview with Reuters, Trump said he believes China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is proof that Beijing “will do anything they can” to make him lose his re-election bid in November.
Trump orders meat plants to stay open in pandemic - President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday evening compelling meat processors to remain open to head off shortages in the nation’s food supply chains, despite mounting reports of plant worker deaths due to covid-19. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to classify meat plants as essential infrastructure that must remain open. Under the order, the government will provide additional protective gear for employees as well as guidance, according to a person familiar with the action who spoke about the order before it was signed by the president. The person was not authorized to disclose details of the order. Trump’s plan to sign the order was first reported by Bloomberg News. Trump alluded to the plan Tuesday morning during an Oval Office meeting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). “We’re going to sign an executive order today, I believe,” Trump said. “It was a very unique circumstance because of liability.” He did not elaborate. Worker safety experts say such an order would prevent local health officials from ordering meat companies to use their the most effective weapon available to protect their employees from the coronavirus — closures. They also fear that it would also undercut newly issued federal health guidelines designed to put space between plant workers. Trump has not publicly explained which provisions within the act he will rely on to compel plants to remain open or grant companies protection from workplace safety requirements. At least 20 meatpacking plants have closed in recent weeks because of covid-19 outbreaks, according to an analysis by The Washington Post. The United Food and Commercial Workers, which represents thousands of workers at U.S. meat plants, said Tuesday that at least 17 have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and at least 5,000 have been directly affected by the virus.
The Price of Meat - Yves Smith - Meatpacking plants have become the new front where workers are fighting management over Covid-19 risk. But unlike medical professionals, who in theory can be hazmat suited up so as to greatly reduce exposure to contagion but aren’t due to the lack of PPE, you can rest assured that level of safety precaution will never happen in slaughterhouses because the pricing and margins of meat production won’t allow for its.The stakes for meat are high not simply due to the concentration of production, that that loss of not all that many plants has crippled on pork and beef supplies, with pork down by 1/4 and beef off by over 10%. It also results from the fact that the number of cases in these plants is so high that they’ve made their communities into hot spots. So even if the plants were kept open, people in the area would be put at even more health risk. That’s why, three weeks ago, Governor Kristi Noem pressed Smithfield Foods to halt in its ginormous Sioux Falls operation, which had over 200 positive cases. Since then, coronavirus has shuttered at least 15 more plants. Wholesalers arewarning of meat shortages in some regions, while in other areas, grocers are engaging in rationing lite (limiting the number of meat purchases), so as to keep shelves stocked and prevent panic buying.John Tyson of Tyson Foods appears to have goaded Trump into acting via a series of newspaper ads blaring that “The food supply chain is breaking.” Cynics wondered if that was just cover for jacking up prices and giving Tyson cover so as not to be accused of profiteering. But it seems that the industry honchos really did want the meat plants back in service. Trump quickly issued an executive order, using the Defense Production Act to authorize the plants to reopen. However, the press appears to have gotten out over its skis. Trump’s order isn’t forcing meat processors back into operation: However, the order does override state orders to suspend operations. And it gives the producers a big fat liability shield. From Mother Jones: Already, 20 meatpacking and food-processing workers have died from COVID-19, and more than 5,000 have contracted the disease, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union. What if workers and their families start suing, claiming that the companies’ practices made them sick? Already, one worker—at a Smithfield plant in Milan, Mo.—filed a lawsuit claiming management was not sufficiently protecting workers from the risk of COID-19, and demanding that it follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.A president invoking the Defense Production Act to require meatpacking firms to keep their plants running during outbreaks would provide a “solid basis” for shielding the firms from suits like this, said Jennifer Zwagerman, director of Drake University’s Agricultural Law Center. She noted that Walmart was recently sued for wrongful death by the family of a worker who died from COVID-19 complications.
Thousands of IRS employees offer to go back to work after agency offers incentive pay amid backlog - Thousands of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) employees have reportedly volunteered to go back to work as the agency struggles amid the pandemic to overcome a backlog of tax filings and coronavirus stimulus payments.CNN reported Monday that a number of employees ranging in the thousands would return to work at 10 different locations across the country as the IRS works to get through tax season as well as the relief payments passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump. Those working amid the backlog will reportedly receive a 10 percent pay raise, while some workers in areas deemed to be higher risks for coronavirus transmission, such as the mailroom, would receive up to 25 percent raises. The news was confirmed to CNN by the Professional Managers Association, a national organization representing non-union IRS workers and others in the federal government. Workers will be required to wear face masks while on the job, the association's president told CNN. The agency took heat from some lawmakers last week for a memo requiring IRS workers to fund their own masks. The agency has since moved to provide one mask per employee, officials told CNN in a statement. "The IRS will continue to do everything possible to protect employees while also providing important services and assistance to the nation's taxpayers," the agency said. Tax season has already been extended through July 15 as millions of Americans are out of work and many federal employees are working from home, compounding the agency's ability to assist taxpayers with questions or answer physical mail.
Supreme Court declines to rule on its first Second Amendment case in nearly a decade - The Supreme Court said Monday that it will not issue a ruling in a closely watched case over a New York gun regulation that barred transport of handguns outside the city, including to second homes and firing ranges. In an unsigned opinion, the court said that the rollback of the rule by city and state officials after the court agreed to hear the case effectively ended the dispute without the justices needing to intervene. It was the first Second Amendment case to reach the top court in nearly a decade. The justices have not waded into the highly charged debate over gun rights since expanding the reach of the Second Amendment in a pair of cases in 2008 and 2010.Conservatives were hoping the court, which has a new 5-4 conservative majority, would use the New York case to limit regulations on firearms further. But the outcome of the case was telegraphed in December during oral arguments, when the court spent little time addressing the underlying constitutional questions raised by the New York regulation. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a President Donald Trump appointee who's known to have an expansive view of gun rights, wrote separately to say he agreed with the court's handling of the "procedural issues" raised by the case, but urged his colleagues to hear another Second Amendment case "soon."Three of the court's Republican appointees, Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas, said they would not have dismissed the case. Alito, in an opinion joined by Gorsuch and in part by Thomas, wrote that by declining to rule in the case the court allowed itself to be "manipulated."
Judge says Virginia gun range can open despite stay-at-home order - A gun range in Virginia will be able to remain open amid the COVID-19 pandemic after a circuit court judge ruled the constitutional right to bear arms meant the state did not have the authority to order the business to close, The Associated Press reports. The ruling by Lynchburg Circuit Judge F. Patrick Yeatts comes in a case the SafeSide gun range and a handful of gun rights groups brought against the state over Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D) stay-at-home order. Northam ordered residents to temporarily avoid unnecessary travel and large gatherings, as well as the closure of nonessential businesses, including shooting ranges. SafeSide, Virginia Citizens Defense League, Gun Owners of America, the Association of Virginia Gun Ranges and the Virginia Citizens Defense League accused the state of violating the rights of residents afforded by the Second Amendment. “The Governor has no such power. He is barred from closing shooting ranges under the Virginia 'Emergency Services and Disaster Law,’” the groups said in the suit. “But even more importantly, his closure order infringes on rights recognized and protected by Article I, 13 of the Virginia Constitution and the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution.” “It does not matter that the Governor has issued an emergency declaration or declared a state of emergency, as no elected official has the discretionary authority to suspend the protections the People wrote into their Constitution which also created the office in which the Governor serves,” the suit continued.
We Can’t Get Together Until Tests Get Better -The debate about when and whether the world can reopen keeps coming back to testing. If only we could test everyone all the time, the logic goes, we could isolate the ill and everyone else could go back to school, work and life as we once knew it.Sadly, that’s not quite right. The prerequisite for reopening is better tests, not just more tests.A “good test” has three properties: It’s rapid (like less than an hour), accurate and widely available. Only with all three can it be used to screen people before they go to the office, get on an airplane, or attend a class or conference. And only then — barring an effective vaccine — can authorities safely allow people to do all those things.Current tests fall short. The turnaround time for typical nasal swabs that detect the virus’s RNA can be hours or days — far too long to be useful as a screen, and plenty of time for people to get infected while awaiting the results. And even if people were willing to wait in quarantine for days, many of the available tests are not accurate. They have very high false negative rates, meaning that they would erroneously allow a lot of sick people to interact with everyone else, all but guaranteeing more super-spreader incidents. There are some promising tests that are both fast and relatively accurate, but they require nearby expensive machines, so they won’t become universally available.Checking people’s temperatures is no substitute. Thermometer guns and cameras are famously inaccurate, in part because the temperature of your face doesn’t necessarily reflect your internal temperature. More important, people infected with coronavirus are highly contagious long before they show any symptoms, and many never experience a fever.Granted, current tests do have their uses. New York, for example, recently used antibody tests to estimate that about 15% of people in the state — and about 25% in New York City — had already been infected. This might be useful for understanding whether a place is nearing “herd immunity” — but only if infection grants immunity for a significant period, which we don’t know yet. Also, it’s worth noting that New York’s test wasn’t a random sample: Participants were selected at shopping centers, so the results aren’t representative of a population that is to some extent hunkering down at home. None of this means that people shouldn’t use the available tests. Done right, testing and tracing can slow the pandemic’s spread. And even slow bad tests can provide some marginal risk mitigation for people working in hot spots. Hospitals should get access to the expensive machines to further mitigate risk. But the remaining danger, unavoidable in a hospital, is unacceptable in a college dormitory or industry conference. Which leaves sticking with social distancing, and requiring businesses to gear up with splash guards, partitions and credit card machines placed at a safe distance from cashiers. All imperfect, but helpful in reducing risk until a good test comes along.
McConnell: Battle for control of the Senate will be a 'dog fight' - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned on Monday that the battle for control of the Senate in the November election will be a "dog fight," with neither party currently having a "lock" on winning the majority. McConnell, speaking to Fox News Radio, said Republicans are "on the defense" as they try to keep their Senate majority. Republicans are defending 23 seats to Democrats 12, though many of them are in deep red states. "Let me just say that the Senate majority has not been a certainty at any point this cycle. We always knew from the beginning, and I've said consistently, that it's going to be a dog fight," McConnell said. McConnell added that the makeup of the Senate map means Republicans have "a lot of exposure," where Democrats will try to unseat GOP incumbents. But he also pointed to Alabama and Michigan — where Democratic Sens. Doug Jones (Ala.) and Gary Peters (Mich.) are on the ballot — as "really good" pick up opportunities for Republicans. "I think it's a tough fight. We don't have a lock on it, nor do they. It's going to be a fight to the finish. Sort of like a knife fight in an alley," McConnell said. Democrats are feeling increasingly bullish about their chances of taking back the majority in November as tightening in several key races have put them increasingly in striking distance in states including Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina where GOP Sens. Martha McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Susan Collins (Maine) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) are on the ballot. Democrats need to pick up three seats to win control of the chamber if the party also wins the White House, or a net total of four seats to get an outright simple majority.
Animals Are Pointless, And We Should Be Too --What do ducks do all day? I have been watching some recently, and the answer is: not much. They float around. They eat. They quack. They poop. They waddle from pond to tree and back again. Sometimes they reproduce using their weird corkscrew genitalia. But they do very little work. Other animals are much the same. I watched some turtles the other day, sitting beside a lake. They basked in the sunshine. Then they went in the water for a bit. Then they came out again. This seemed to be their entire life. I am not saying animals do no labor. Oftentimes, the struggle to survive is intense, and many are constantly exerting themselves. But once they’re fed and rested, a lot of what they do consists of standing around. Or sitting. Or wandering this way and that. Cats, as we know, mostly just sleep, and when you think about it, it’s rather incredible that millions of years of evolution have produced a creature whose main purpose is just to lie in one spot unconscious. Animals do not seek meaning, as far as we can tell. The very concept of a meaningful life is incomprehensible to them. There is just life, and life consists of the things that need to be done and then things they just seem to like doing. But one animal is quite different: us. The human. Many humans have a very strange idea that life should consist of more than just quacking and floating. It should be “meaningful,” whatever that is. Consider the troublesome case of Ezekiel J. Emanuel, brother to Rahm and health policy adviser to Joe Biden. Emanuel once wrote an essay called “Why I Hope To Die At 75.” In it, he argued that after 75, life becomes less and less worth living. He documents all the ways in which life as an elderly person can be unpleasant due to physical and mental decline. He is dismissive toward efforts at life extension (which I favor). He decides that given how much being old tends to suck, 75 should be “enough” years for anyone. The conclusion of the essay makes very little sense to me. I do not know why anyone would choose the number 75 solely because it is a population-level average of when life begins to get worse, instead of saying that each person should want to live as long as their own personal quality of life is good. (Actually, I know exactly why. Because saying “you should want to live as long as your life is good” is banal and won’t get you into the Atlantic whereas irrational contrarianism will.) But what interests me most about Emanuel’s take is that a central part of his case against life after 75 is that old people are not as “creative” or “productive.” Listen to him:
Democratic House leaders plan vote next week on allowing proxy voting during pandemic -- House Democratic leaders told lawmakers on Monday that they plan to hold a vote next week on proposed rules changes to allow a form of remote voting during the coronavirus pandemic, regardless of whether Republicans get on board. According to a Democratic aide, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told the Democratic caucus on a conference call that they expect to vote on allowing proxy voting, in which absent lawmakers can authorize other lawmakers physically present in the Capitol to cast votes on their behalf. Democratic leaders initially planned to vote on the rules change last week while the House was in session to vote on an interim $484 billion coronavirus relief package for small-business loans and hospitals. But Democrats decided to reverse course in response to opposition from Republicans who argued that lawmakers should be voting in person like other essential workers across the country who can't work remotely. Hoyer has since been in bipartisan discussions with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and leaders of the Rules and Administration committees about a path forward on how the House can resume its business. Many Democrats have been pushing leadership to find ways for the House to conduct its business remotely as they grow frustrated with being unable to hold committee hearings to grill Trump administration officials about the pandemic response or cast more votes on bills. At the same time, lawmakers remain worried about risking contagion by traveling back to Washington from all over the country and then congregating in large groups in the Capitol. The original proposal unveiled last week by House Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) would have allowed proxy voting and virtual committee proceedings, including hearings and markups of legislation. The resolution would have also directed a study on how to use technology so lawmakers could participate in floor debate remotely.
New York strikes Sanders from ballot, cancels Democratic presidential primary - The New York State Board of Elections on Monday canceled its Democratic presidential primary, scheduled for June 23, after striking off Sen. Bernie Sanders' name from the ballot. The move was made in an effort to protect New Yorkers during the coronavirus outbreak that has hit the state harder than any other in the nation. Now, voters in about 20 counties that had no other contests on their ballot will not have to go to the polls, according to the New York Times. "I think it's time for us to recognize that the presidential contest is over," Commissioner Doug Kellner explained during a livestream announcing the decision. Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, dropped out of the presidential race on April 13 and endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden, who built a near-insurmountable lead in pledged delegates after several key wins. Despite dropping out, Sanders urged his followers to vote for him in the remaining primaries in order to pick up delegates and influence the party platform at the Democratic National Convention, which is slated for August. He and his supporters have pushed for Biden, now the apparent nominee, to embrace more liberal proposals on a range of issues. A spokesman for Sanders' campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC's request to comment.
Larry Summers and the Biden campaign - In the wake of Bernie Sanders’ abject capitulation to Joe Biden, the presumptive presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, leading supporters of the Sanders campaign, including the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), have tried to maintain that despite the predictable outcome, all was not in vain. Sanders, they claim, shifted the “debate,” bringing vital issues previously regarded as peripheral into the mainstream of politics. With the narrative of these would-be political alchemists in ruins—namely, that Sanders would take the leadership of the Democratic Party and turn it in a “progressive” or even “socialist” direction—they have shifted their line to the delusion that Sanders can lead a successful pressure campaign to shift Biden to the left. For its part, the Biden camp, recognizing the hostility to its candidate, especially among younger voters, says it is reaching out to the “progressive” constituency. The veil was lifted on this dog and pony show last Thursday, when Bloomberg News revealed that the treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, Larry Summers, was a key adviser to Biden in the formulation of economic policy. Summers has a long history, going back almost three decades, of supporting all the measures leading to the financialization of the American economy and the institutionalization of mechanisms that have siphoned off wealth and income to its upper layers. He was one of the key architects of policies that have resulted in the greatest levels of social inequality in history, the lowering of wages for millions of workers, and the gutting of essential services such as health care. He also has a record of opposing action to deal with climate change. Organizations backing Sanders have responded to the news of Summers’ key role in the Biden campaign with expressions of shock and outrage, demonstrating once again their own political bankruptcy. Two pro-Sanders organisations, Justice Democrats and the Sunrise Movement, issued a joint statement that Summers was unfit to carry out a progressive agenda and that Biden had a major “trust gap,” which he would have to overcome with “progressives” and voters under the age of 45 to win against Trump.
Archive Of Biden Accuser's Mother Calling CNN Scrubbed From Google Play Catalog - An archived episode of CNN's "Larry King Live" featuring a call from an anonymous caller later identified as the mother of Biden accuser Tara Reid appears to have been scrubbed from the Google Play catalog.The August 11, 1993 broadcast is conspicuously missing from the catalog in between the August 10 and August 12 episodes, according to a screenshot taken by Twitter user @absinthol, who writes "CNN removed the August 11th, 1993 Larry King Episode from Google Play, the episode featuring a call from Tara Reade's mother.""CNN is actively colluding with the Biden campaign to cover up evidence of Biden's sexual assault," the tweet continues.CNN removed the August 11th, 1993 Larry King Episode from Google Play, the episode featuring a call from Tara Reade's mother. CNN is actively colluding with the Biden campaign to cover up evidence of Biden's sexual assault. pic.twitter.com/JqTcofIyqs— J. L. Hamilton (@absinthol) April 26, 2020Zero Hedge confirmed the observation:The Intercept broke the news that a transcript existed of the Aug. 11, 1993 broadcast, while Reade confirmed with Fox News that the woman on the call was in fact her mother, Jeanette Altimus. #BREAKING: HERE is the video from August 11,1993's 'Larry King Live' described by @TheIntercept (and Tara Reade) as allegedly featuring her mother calling in and alluding to Reade's sexual assault claims against @JoeBiden (blog here by @ScottJW) https://t.co/fCgEqBnX7n pic.twitter.com/V5FGHskv56
Is the Tara Reade Story Approaching Critical Mass? - Is the Tara Reade story reaching critical mass, approaching a tipping point? It seems so.The initial response to this story was silence from anyone with political or media power. The media in particular completely ignored it. Comparisons of CNN coverage of the Reade story with their coverage of the Blasey Ford story show a marked discrepancy. Reade told her full story first in a March 25 interview with Katie Halper. Yet CNN published no Tara Reade stories until April 25, and then, it seems, they published only in embarrassed response to The Intercept‘s revelation that Reade’s mother had called in to CNN’s own show, Larry King Live, on August 11, 1993 to discuss in unspecific terms her daughter’s problem. CNN finally broke silence on the Reade story less than a day after Ryan Grim and the Intercept published the Larry King show transcript and the Media Research Center located and tweeted a clip of it. To conclude that the media buried the story to help Biden remain the presumptive nominee is inescapable. The plan, apparently, was to starve the public of Reade news and wait out the indie-press storm until newer news drew their attention. Once the wall of silence was breached, the indie press started asking why Democratic Party leaders and opinion makers, especially prominent #MeToo women, were either absent from the discussion or suddenly coming out in support of Biden. Kirstin Gillibrand and Hillary Clinton are the latest to announce support as of this writing, but the silence of many — Elizabeth Warren prominently among them — is still deafening. Note that “I support Joe Biden” and “I believe Joe Biden” are different statements. Only Nancy Pelosi, speaking with Ari Melber on MSNBC, has been asked directly about Reade’s accusation and replied, “I’m satisfied with his answer.” Now the story itself, or the story about the story, is coming to mainstream pages and screens, thanks partly to the shaming of the indie press and partly to the recent report by Rich McHugh inBusiness Insider. The New York Times now publicly acknowledges Biden’s silence: Activists and women’s rights advocates have urged Mr. Biden to address a former aide’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her in 1993. His lack of response has angered them. In an April 27 New Yorker story entitled “The Biden Trap: As the candidate faces credible assault allegations, his progressive female colleagues are being offered a poisoned chalice,” Rebecca Traister observes: Biden’s shaky past behavior around women and their bodies isn’t staying in his past. BuzzFeed weighs in with “Democrats Will Have To Answer Questions About Tara Reade. The Biden Campaign Is Advising Them To Say Her Story “Did Not Happen.”” Chris Cillizza add his bit with “Joe Biden’s campaign is twisting a New York Times story to defend against the Tara Reade allegation“. And the Daily Beast pursues responses from 10 prominent women’s groups and notes their near universal silence:
Joe Biden Officially Denies Tara Reade Sexual Assault Claim - Directly addressing the allegations that have upended his stalled campaign, former VP Joe Biden issued a statement denying sexual assault allegations made by Tara Reade - a former staffer who claims Biden digitally penetrated her against her wishes back in the early 1990s.In the statement, Biden said the alleged assault "never happened" and that his papers at the University of Delaware include no mention of the incident.The statement begins: "So I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago. They aren’t true. This never happened."In statement, Biden denies sexual assault allegation and says his papers at the University of Delaware don’t include any such record. Said accuser’s story has been inconsistent. “This never happened.” pic.twitter.com/ifFZ6nJV1m — Manu Raju (@mkraju) May 1, 2020 Reade has claimed she made a complaint about the incident. The WaPo editorial board has pressed Biden to release sealed Senate records, but Biden's alma mater UDel said yesterday it had no plans to release Biden's papers. Even the NYT released a statement undercutting the nominee by saying that its report did not "exonerate" Biden from the allegations. In the statement, Biden says he plans to ask the Secretary of the Senate to ask the National Archives to identify and release to the press any complaints filed by Reade, who says she filed a complain in 1993. Reade started working for Biden in late 1992 and left in the summer of 1993. Biden - who hasn't previously addressed the allegations directly - released his statement as MSNBC's "Morning Joe" aired a supposedly "unscripted" interview with Biden where they were supposed to ask "tough questions" about the allegations. However, a clip from a pre-filmed segment portends a flurry of softball questions, answered with the help of a teleprompter. Here's a photo of the teleprompter Joe Biden will likely be relying on this morning to answer questions about Tara Reade. pic.twitter.com/HuAgYEJAKh
The Deepfake iPhone Apps Are Here - LawFare -Like many Americans, I woke up this morning to see that the president had retweeted a misleading gif of his presumptive Democratic challenger, Joe Biden:The president’s use of this gif is already coming in for criticism. Writing in the Atlantic, David Frum noted the significance of the president’s retweet: “Instead of sharing deceptively edited video—as Trump and his allies have often done before—yesterday Trump for the first time shared a video that had been outrightly fabricated.”But Trump’s action in sharing this particular video has a special resonance for me, because it was made with one of the iPhone apps I’ve been playing around with for the past month. I’ve been attempting to learn more about the democratization of what are called “deepfakes”—convincing videos that superimpose someone’s face on an already-existing video or photo or otherwise manipulate media to make it appear as if someone did or said something that never actually happened. The watermark on the bottom right-hand corner of the Biden gif, “muglife.com,” indicates that the gif came from Mug Life, an app that allows users to manipulate a still image of a person’s face.It turns out I know a fair bit about Mug Life. While many of you have spent your initial period in quarantine trying to become bakers, yogis or knitters, I spent mine trying to become late night comedian Seth Meyers. It was easy, really. I didn’t brainstorm standup routines or practice public speaking in an effort to emulate the late-night TV host. I just downloaded an app like Mug Life, took a selfie, selected a gif of Meyers and voila: Deepfake creation used to require a serious computer and a good baseline of technological skill. But that barrier to entry has begun to erode. iPhone deepfake apps have made creating deceptive media easier than ever. An iPhone-created deepfake tweeted by an anonymous user with only 60,000 followers received a presidential retweet within an hour of posting. The era of the deepfake apps has arrived.
Bankers are holding their breath over Biden — While bankers are relieved that two outspoken Wall Street critics have abandoned their White House bids and Democratic voters have coalesced around the more moderate Joe Biden, industry watchers still have questions about how the presumptive nominee would govern.Executives, bank lobbyists and others largely agree that the industry appears to have dodged a bullet after the former vice president was able to halt the early-primary momentum of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., forcing both Sanders and his fellow progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., to drop out.But they still worry Biden, if elected, could be pushed to the left by progressive voters on financial policy issues and appoint leaders of the bank regulators who would support stricter rules. “I think there was definitely a calm that rushed over Democrats in New York City and within the institutions themselves when Bernie didn’t get it, just because he doesn’t represent their kind of policy,” said an industry source who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Those of us who have watched since the Obama administration, and certainly this administration, have a concern about who is going to actually control who the nominees for the regulatory agencies are.”Biden already moved to the left on bankruptcy reform after becoming the clear front-runner, supporting policies championed by Warren. If he were to win the White House, his administration potentially would need to address financial issues tied to the coronavirus pandemic. And depending on the outcome of a Supreme Court case involving the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Biden could be in position to appoint a Democratic head of that agency.
In a Slap in the Face to Progressives, Biden Appoints Larry Summers, a “Literal Architect of Neoliberalism,” to Economic Advisory Role - In a slap in the face to progressives, Joe Biden, who has already announced that if he’s elected “nothing would fundamentally change,” has appointed the head of Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, Larry Summers, as a key adviser to his campaign. From Bloomberg, which occasionally still reports the news (emphasis added):Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is advising Joe Biden’s presidential campaign on economic policy, including its plans to revive the U.S. economy after the coronavirus pandemic, according to five people familiar with his involvement.The Obama and Clinton administration veteran’s role roiled progressives who view his past work on the 2009 recovery as too favorable to big banks. That’s awkward for the Biden campaign at a time when it is trying to win the trust of former supporters of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.Five people confirming is a deliberate leak, especially since non of them are said to be “unauthorized to speak about the matter.” Progressive groups are aghast, of course:Two Sanders-aligned groups, Justice Democrats and Sunrise Movement, said Friday they “hope Biden publicleconomic y rejects Summers’s role as an economic adviser to better earn the trust of our generation.” They said they also plan to start a petition calling on Biden to pledge to exclude Summers from his transition team or administration.“Larry Summers’s legacy is advocating for policies that contributed to the skyrocketing inequality and climate crisiswe’re living with today,” the groups said in a joint statement.Summers is such a bad choice for the campaign to be aligned with that The American Prospectwriter Robert Kuttner put Summers at the top of his “do not re-appoint” list.But as Rising’s Saagar Enjeti points out, the real group that Biden needs to assure isn’t Progressive Avenue, or even Main Street — it’s Wall Street — and leaking via five sources to Bloomberg News that Summers is now in Biden’s inner circle does just that. As Bloomberg put it, with this move Biden has “offered some reassurance [to] Wall Street that Biden is not moving too far to the left from the centrist positions that earned him his establishment support.” I’m not if sure this will get him elected, but it is certain to be noticed, even by not-well-read voters who nonetheless care about the direction of the country. Summers was a marquee name in the Obama administration. As Robert Kuttner points out:Under Clinton, Summers was a prime architect and huge enthusiast of what proved to be fatal financial deregulation. He was also in charge of Clinton’s economic policy for post-Soviet Russia, and was responsible for pushing for early and catastrophic privatization of state assets, a fire sale that led directly to the creation of Russia’s oligarchs. As president of Harvard, he proved to be both arrogant and sexist, to the point where he got himself fired. …
JPMorgan Chase sent 225,000 small-business applications this week - JPMorgan Chase has submitted more than 225,000 applications for the second round of the Small Business Administration’s relief program. The largest U.S. lender continues to process and submit applications, and plans to email clients as it receives responses from the SBA, Jennifer Roberts, chief of the consumer unit’s business-banking division, said in a note to clients Wednesday. “We don’t know timing yet, but we’ll email you as soon as the SBA notifies us of their decision on your loan,” Roberts wrote. The SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program, aimed at helping the nation’s smallest businesses weather the coronavirus pandemic, relaunched Monday with $320 billion of funds after an initial round of $349 billion was exhausted in just 13 days earlier this month. JPMorgan’s submissions total about $17.8 billion in requested funding for the second round, with an average loan size of $81,000, according to company spokeswoman Trish Wexler. In the first round, JPMorgan secured about $14 billion in funding, with an average loan size of more than $500,000. The largest U.S. lenders had hundreds of thousands of applications ready to go when the program restarted. Bank of America sent 184,000 applications from Sunday to early Monday, while Wells Fargo sent more than 100,000 applications Monday. The Trump administration said Tuesday that it had approved more than $52 billion in loan requests, even as lenders were beset by glitches that slowed down the SBA’s platform.
JPMorgan turned SBA borrowers away before second round started - JPMorgan Chase stopped taking new applications from small businesses seeking loans under the U.S. government's Paycheck Protection Program before the initiative relaunched Monday. The bank told customers that it wasn't accepting new applications for the rescue loans because it was trying to work through a backlog of requests already in its pipeline, Jennifer Roberts, chief of the consumer unit's business-banking division, said in a note to clients Monday, expanding on a message it gave last Thursday. "I wish we could help every business through this program, but funds could run out again quickly and we have preexisting applications in our queue," Roberts wrote. The SBA's Paycheck Protection Program relaunched Monday at 10:30 a.m. New York time with an additional $320 billion. The initial $349 billion to support small business during the coronavirus pandemic ran out in just 13 days. Some lenders had thousands of applications to go when the system restarted, creating pent-up demand and fueling concerns the extra money would run out quickly. On Monday, some banks reported that they either couldn't access the agency's system or were being kicked out as they tried to process applications. JPMorgan said it would monitor funding availability in case it can take new loan applications in the future.
Tilt toward smallest lenders is latest PPP wrinkle to confound banks - A flurry of changes to the Paycheck Protection Program — new filing requirements, a planned audit of big loans and a last-minute decision to temporarily restrict many banks’ ability to submit applications — is confounding lenders of all sizes. The effort to infuse nearly $660 billion into small businesses harmed by the coronavirus pandemic initially frustrated bankers as they struggled to gain approvals for a backlog of applications. Now those lenders are dealing with ever-changing guidance from the Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department. Smaller banks were pleased with the agencies’ decision Wednesday to block lenders with more than $1 billion in assets from using the SBA’s E-Tran portal over an eight-hour period that evening. Still, some expressed frustration with a requirement to complete a form that has yet to be distributed to lenders. And the decision to scrutinize large-dollar loans, without guidance on what will be reviewed, has also left many bankers scratching their heads.Keeping up with the evolving directives “is very challenging,” said Todd Nagle, CEO of the $1.4 billion-asset IncredibleBank in Wausau, Wis. Most of the policies benefit borrowers and protect banks, but, "Unfortunately, now the program is getting political and seems to be straying from its original mission, which was to keep employees working,” Nagle said. “It’s frustrating to get new guidance and FAQs daily,” said Brad Bolton, president and CEO of the $150 million-asset Community Spirit Bank in Red Bay, Ala. The agencies are relying on a hodgepodge of tactics instead of an upfront strategy, industry experts said. “Changing the rules midstream is so unsettling for small business owners,” Gonzalez said. “Banks should have specific rules for distribution.”
Congress was wrong to leave PPP disbursement up to banks - The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the weaknesses of federal crisis response capabilities across the entire U.S. economy. Nowhere has this weakness been more evident than in the government’s efforts to rescue the small businesses that account for almost half of U.S. jobs and economic activity. Instead of providing quick, efficient and fair employee retention assistance directly through employers — like the method used in the European Union and elsewhere globally — the U.S. relies on bank lenders as the primary conduit for delivery of assistance to employers and their employees. "To wake up one day and assume everyone in America is going to be above average at math and above average rational is crazy," says Ethan Bloch. This reliance on lender intermediaries means that assistance must come in the form of “loans” rather than direct support payments. It also exposes how frequently the government’s policy goals conflict with lenders’ economic goals and incentives. This is an inefficient and ineffective solution for the problem it intended to solve. There are numerous issues emerging from the use of banks to distribute the first, and now second, round of emergency small- business assistance under the Paycheck Protection Program. But lawmakers who created the PPP through the first coronavirus relief bill should likely be forgiven for not creating a better method out of thin air. An emergency is an emergency after all. But the practice of channeling small-business and employee support assistance through banks is going to become very problematic very fast if the crisis drags on. The government can continue to use banks to deliver aid to small businesses if it has to, but it shouldn’t try to outsource the hardest political and policy decisions to banks. If this continues, the vulnerable small businesses that lawmakers want to help the most will end up paying the price. As the coronavirus crisis stretches on, and the need for additional small-business support grows, the government has one absolutely critical decision to make: whether to try preserving every small business that was in operation through mid-March 2020 or assist only those that will remain viable when the government assistance ends, based on choosing the likely “winners” and “losers” post-crisis.
Fed Allows Banks to Eliminate Limits, Fees on Monthly Withdrawals From Savings Accounts – WSJ - The Federal Reserve wants to make it easier for consumers to access cash in savings accounts and money-market accounts during the pandemic. On Friday, the central bank said it was eliminating a rule that generally limits individuals from making more than six withdrawals from such accounts each month without paying a fee. The Fed said in a release that it is acting because “financial events associated with the coronavirus pandemic” have made access to cash “more urgent.” The move enables banks to allow for unlimited withdrawals and transfers each month, though lenders aren’t required to eliminate the existing limits and can retain their existing fees on transactions of more than six a month, the Fed said.
CFPB eases disclosure rules to help consumers affected by COVID-19 - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is relaxing certain disclosure requirements for consumers who have a financial emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic and need to obtain funds through the quick closing of a loan.The CFPB issued an interpretive rule Wednesday clarifying that consumers can exercise their rights to modify or waive waiting periods required by the Truth in Lending Act and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, known as TRID. The CFPB is encouraging mortgage lenders to voluntarily tell consumers of their ability to obtain waivers for certain required waiting periods under TRID, which is codified in Regulation Z. “The steps we are taking today will help consumers facing financial emergencies obtain access to mortgage credit faster,” CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger said in a press release. “The pandemic is resulting in consumers facing various challenges, and our temporary and targeted solutions are intended to ensure that consumers receive the credit they need in a timely manner.” The CFPB said that the waiting period under TRID may result in the delay of some transactions for consumers who have a bona fide personal financial emergency.Under the new guidance, the CFPB will allow a consumer with a financial emergency to waive waiting periods if three conditions are met: the extension of credit is needed to meet a financial emergency; the consumer provides a brief statement saying the financial need is due to COVID-19; and the emergency necessitates closing a mortgage credit transaction before the end of TRID's waiting period.
April 2020: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for April 2020.Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for April 2020. During the month, the list declined by one to 64 banks after one removal. Aggregate assets were little changed at $48.4 billion. A year ago, the list held 73 institutions with assets of $52.1 billion. Exiting the list via failure was The First State Bank, Barboursville, WV ($152 million). This was the second failure in 2020 and the first failure in West Virginia since 2008 when Ameribank, Northfork, WV ($104 million) failed on September 19, 2008. The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The number of unofficial problem banks grew quickly and peaked at 1,003 institutions in July, 2011 - and has steadily declined to well below 100 institutions.
Agencies signal support for more capital relief in midst of crisis— The Federal Reserve Board and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are eyeing further changes to bank capital rules to help the industry confront the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, according to letters the two agencies sent Congress.In a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, the Fed's head of bank supervision said lawmakers should consider easing statutory requirements — known as the Dodd-Frank Act's Collins amendment — dealing with a bank's Tier 1 leverage capital ratio.Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles said that that amendment is straining banks' ability to handle an influx of deposits in the stressed economic environment. "Congress has amended ... [the Collins amendment] before, recognizing the complications it presents in tailoring a capital regime to a diverse financial sector and to changing risks in the financial system over time," Quarles said in the April 22 letter to Crapo. "In the current environment, it poses an additional challenge: complicating the regulatory agencies’ ability to address a severe economic stress period. Banking organizations are receiving significant inflows of customer deposits and the ability of these banking organizations to continue accepting significant deposits may become constrained due to Tier 1 leverage requirements."The Senate Banking Committee posted the letters from Quarles and FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams on its website this week. They were in response to Crapo's request for details about regulators' efforts during the crisis. Quarles' request echoes steps the central bank took on its own at the beginning of April to ease its supplementary leverage ratio. The Fed announced at the time that it would exclude for one-year Treasury securities and deposits held at Federal Reserve banks from the SLR calculation."Liquidity conditions in Treasury markets have deteriorated rapidly, and financial institutions are receiving significant inflows of customer deposits along with increased reserve levels," the Fed said in its April 1 statement. "The regulatory restrictions that accompany this balance sheet growth may constrain the firms' ability to continue to serve as financial intermediaries and to provide credit to households and businesses."In an April 10 letter to Crapo, McWilliams said her agency was considering steps to ease capital requirements to address the market strain for banks dealing with the effects of the pandemic crisis. Yet her letter notably left out any calls for congressional reforms.The FDIC is considering “temporary changes to supplementary and tier 1 leverage ratios that would allow banking organizations to expand their balance sheets through deposits at the Federal Reserve Banks and/or acquisition of U.S. Treasury securities,” McWilliams wrote.
Pandemic Triggers a Wave of Distress, Bankruptcy in Corporate America – WSJ - The economic earthquake the coronavirus has unleashed is likely to trigger a wave of corporate distress and bankruptcy unseen in years. Stay-at-home orders and the shutdown of nonessential business have driven broad swaths of the economy into panic mode, ending a long period of calm as markets rose and cheap capital abounded. In industries that were already in a precarious position before the crisis, including retail and energy, the pandemic has tipped many companies over the edge. A host of oil companies have sought chapter 11 protection, while J.C. Penney Co. JCP 3.07% and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. are expected to file for bankruptcy soon. Companies in areas that were previously stable, such as the automotive, travel and leisure industries—and even health care—may soon face similar pressures. U.S. corporate debt downgraded to selective default, meaning a borrower has failed to meet one or more of its obligations, totaled $64.1 billion for the 12 months ended April 17, according to S&P Global Ratings. That represents only a slight uptick over the pace at the end of January, but the numbers are about to get a lot more bleak. In the coming months, that figure could top the roughly $340 billion reached at the height of the financial crisis, according to the worst-case scenario estimates from S&P. Even in a less grim scenario, the figure could approach levels reached after the dot-com bust in the early 2000s. Companies of all stripes are scrambling to avoid a painful reorganization of their capital structures and operations, default or bankruptcy. Many have tapped lines of credit and slashed costs. Many, such as Carnival Corp., Expedia Group Inc. and Airbnb Inc., have issued new equity or debt to public investors or private-equity firms. For some, those efforts could tide them over until conditions improve. But should the recession prove deeper than envisioned, there could be a second—potentially bigger—wave of corporate restructuring later this year as companies labor under the weight of additional debt taken on during the shutdown, advisers warn. “We will definitely see an uptick in defaults and an uptick in restructurings,” said William “Tuck” Hardie of investment bank Houlihan Lokey Inc. “The question is: Is it a 2,000-foot mountain or is it Mt. Everest?” U.S. companies drew down about $230 billion from revolving credit lines from the beginning of March through April 9, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The largest portion—around 17%—went to companies in the automotive industry, with about 15% going to retailers and 10% to travel and leisure purveyors.
Unprecedented Pace Of Corporate Debt Issuance Has Crippled Corporate Fundamentals - (graphs) When the Fed breached a monetary taboo even Ben Bernanke did not violate when Jerome Powell announced last month he would buy investment grade bonds, it was clear that the Fed's only solution to avoiding the bursting of the corporate debt bubble was to make it even bigger. And sure enough, the Fed's explicit backstop of the bond market has meant the supply of IG bonds has set a record pace in 2020. According to Morgan Stanley, IG supply has totaled $693 billion through mid-April, up a staggering 63% y/y... ... with $435 billion pricing since the beginning of March alone. March supply set an all-time record at $264 billion, breaking the prior record by over $80 billion and a further $170 billion in the first half of April. To put that in perspective, the March total surpasses the prior record for the busiest month (January 2017) by over $80 billion. Issuance just in the first half of April already ranks in the top five busiest months on record. Four of the top 10 busiest weeks on record have occurred since the beginning of March, with the week of March 30 ranking as the busiest ever, at $118 billion of issuance. All to say that this was truly an unprecedented pace. Year-to-date through April 17, total supply of $693 billion is tracking 63% ahead of last year. And confirming what we said a month ago in "Bond Market Tears In Two", issuance has been heavily skewed toward high-quality issuers, with issuance rated "A" making up 57% of supply from the beginning of March onwards, for obvious reasons: these are the bonds that will find a willing buyer in the Fed via Blackrock's purchases of the LQD ETF. Drilling down, consumer Discretionary companies have raised the most new debt financing when combined with revolver draws.Of course, the Fed's enabling of this epic bond bubble burst would have been impossible without the coronavirus crisis: the pandemic has produced an unprecedented market shock, with issuers experiencing an extremely sharp drop in earnings, without clarity on when the economy will begin to recover. Indeed, IG issuers have tapped financing wherever possible, including drawing on revolvers. Through April 20, IG issuers had tapped $134 billion in revolvers, putting combined bond issuance and revolver draws at $568 billion since the beginning of March. And while trends in the use of those proceeds point to companies using debt issuance to shore up liquidity, the IG issuance momentum has been so powerful, companies have been using corporate bonds to refi some of the revolver draws in recent weeks, as we reported last week.
Buffett's Berkshire posts nearly $50 billion loss as coronavirus causes pain - (Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc is being hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, posting a record quarterly net loss of nearly $50 billion on Saturday and saying performance is suffering in several major operating businesses. Berkshire said most of its more than 90 businesses have faced “relatively minor to severe” negative effects from COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus, with revenue slowing considerably in April even at businesses deemed “essential.” The BNSF railroad saw shipping volumes fall, Geico set aside money for car insurance premiums it doesn’t expect to collect, and some businesses cut wages and furloughed workers. Retailers such as See’s Candies and the Nebraska Furniture Mart closed stores. Buffett also allowed Berkshire’s cash stake to rise to a record $137.3 billion from $128 billion at the end of 2019. That reflected the 89-year-old billionaire’s inability to make large, “elephant” size acquisitions, now in its fifth year, and caution in buying more stocks. Berkshire repurchased $1.7 billion of its own stock. Berkshire’s first-quarter net loss totaled $49.75 billion, or $30,653 per Class A share, reflecting $54.52 billion of losses from investments, mainly common stocks. A year earlier, net earnings totaled $21.66 billion, or $13,209 per share. An accounting rule requires Berkshire to report unrealized stock losses and gains with earnings. This causes huge swings in Berkshire’s net results that Buffett considers meaningless. Quarterly operating profit, which Buffett considers a better performance measure, rose 6% to $5.87 billion, or about $3,624 per Class A share, from $5.56 billion, or about $3,388 per share. Year-earlier results reflected a charge on investments linked to what prosecutors called a fraud at a solar company. Operating profit at Berkshire’s business units fell 3%, with lower profit from BNSF, utilities and energy, and manufacturing, service and retailing businesses.
Fed expands yet-to-be-launched lending backstop for larger firms— The Federal Reserve is expanding its yet-to-be-launched credit program for larger businesses and cutting by half the minimum loan amount available through the program to $500,000.When the Fed first announced the details of the Main Street Lending Program on April 9, it said U.S. businesses with up to 10,000 employees or up to $2.5 billion in annual revenue would be eligible for loans to help them weather the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak.But after receiving extensive feedback, the Fed will make the program available to companies with up to 15,000 employees or $5 billion in annual revenue, the agency said Thursday. “With the changes, the program will now offer more options to a wider set of eligible small and medium-size businesses,” the Fed said in a press release. The central bank added that it is also evaluating “a separate approach” to offer loans to nonprofit organizations. The Fed's lending facilities effectively provide a credit option to larger firms in addition to the Paycheck Protection Program, which was authorized by Congress to provide loans to small businesses that in many cases can be forgiven.The Fed program originally had two components: the Main Street New Loan Facility and the Main Street Expanded Loan Facility. But the Fed is adding a new option, the Main Street Priority Loan Facility, which will issue loans up to either $25 million or six times the borrower’s 2019 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Under the new Main Street Priority Loan Facility, lenders will retain a 15% share in loans, compared to the other two facilities where lenders retain just a 5% share on loans.
CFPB issues guidance on making mortgage servicing transfers 'seamless' --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it will consider “good-faith efforts” by mortgage servicers to prevent consumer harm and comply with regulations in the event that a government agency requests a servicing transfer.The agency released an 18-page bulletin Friday with examples of practices that servicers may deem in compliance with Regulation X. The regulation requires servicers to maintain procedures “reasonably designed” to ensure that information and documents are transferred to another servicer in a timely manner.Although the CFPB said it began developing the guidance before the coronavirus pandemic, the issue of servicing transfers has drawn more attention lately with the economic fallout of the virus outbreak. Earlier this month, the head regulator of the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said the two companies may transfer servicing rights away from firms experiencing financial troubles because homeowners are missing their mortgage payments. While officials have allowed borrowers to seek loan forbearance plans, servicers must still send advances of principal interest to investors in mortgage-backed securities."We’ve seen that we can transfer servicing in a way that’s not too disruptive," Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, was quoted as saying in an article published in HousingWire.Since 2014, when Regulation X mortgage servicing rules took effect, the CFPB has found weakness in how some servicers manage transfers. “Consumers should experience a seamless process when their mortgage servicer changes,” CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger said in a press release. “The guidance we released today will facilitate a well-functioning mortgage servicer transfer process, providing a roadmap for servicers that will prevent consumer harm. The guidance provides insights the CFPB has gained through years of supervisory and enforcement work to oversee compliance with regulations updated after the financial crisis.”Mortgage servicers collect principal and interest payments on behalf of borrowers but government entities such as Fannie and Freddie may require the transfer of servicing to another entity if certain requirements are not being met. The CFPB said it intends to focus any supervisory feedback for institutions, if needed, on “identifying issues, correcting deficiencies, and ensuring appropriate remediation for consumers.”
Cost of GSEs' mortgage market support may be too steep for lenders— Lenders welcomed the Federal Housing Finance Agency's recent announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy loans already in forbearance, but that relief comes with a catch.Originators are now weighing whether the plan makes sense for them after learning that Fannie and Freddie will charge a fee for taking on more risk. The fee, known as a loan-level price adjustment, is 5% of the unpaid principal balance for first-time homebuyers and 7% for all others. The new cost adjustment, which was developed in consultation with the FHFA, is yet another challenge for lenders as the government encourages forbearance for borrowers coping with the coronavirus pandemic. Normally, borrowers would be on the hook for additional fees tacked onto a loan. But in this case, since loans in forbearance will have already closed, the lender is responsible for the loan-level price adjustment. The fees Fannie and Freddie have set could be too high to provide any relief to lenders at all. “FHFA is trying to have it both ways,” "On the other hand, they're trying to act like a company in conservatorship by pricing those loans in a way that makes it unattractive.” FHFA Director Mark Calabria has made clear his view of how the government-sponsored enterprises should behave while they are in conservatorship, and has said that he doesn’t believe it is their responsibility to assist mortgage companies facing a liquidity crunch due to the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, he is focused on building up the capital cushions at Fannie and Freddie, which pale in comparison to financial companies of similar size. Right now, the companies are permitted to hold a combined $45 billion in capital, and can access a credit line at the Treasury Department if their own capital is depleted. Buying loans in forbearance could very well set Fannie and Freddie up for losses, which is likely the reason the GSEs are imposing the high loan-level price adjustment. “There is a heightened level of risk for them that these loans will either maintain a delinquent status or trend into a delinquent status from forbearance,”. The FHFA announced on April 22 its new policy allowing the GSEs to back loans in forbearance. Fannie and Freddie outlined the loan-level price adjustments on their websites shortly thereafter. The GSEs said the fees were priced as such to “address the risk of these temporary measures” and to protect taxpayers. Balancing the safety and soundness of Fannie and Freddie while at the same time fulfilling the companies’ original purposes of expanding the secondary mortgage market is no easy feat, particularly in the midst of a global pandemic. Lenders of all sizes are urging the FHFA to focus on the latter.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in March -- Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.60%, unchanged from 0.60% in February. Freddie's rate is down from 0.67% in March 2019.This matches the last two months as the lowest delinquency rate since November 2007.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". This is close to a cycle bottom. However, with COVID-19, this rate will increase in a few months (it takes time since these are mortgage three months or more past due).
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 6.99%" of Portfolio Volume -Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance." From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 6.99%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 5.95% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.99% as of April 19, 2020. “Over 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment over the last month, leading to nearly 7 percent – 3.5 million – of all mortgage borrowers asking to be put into forbearance plans. For FHA and VA borrowers, the share of loans in forbearance is even higher, at 10 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Forbearance requests fell relative to the prior week but remain roughly 100 times greater than the early March baseline. While the pace of job losses have slowed from the astronomical heights of just a few weeks ago, millions of people continue to file for unemployment. We expect forbearance requests will pick up again as we approach May payment due dates.”Added Fratantoni, “The combination of stimulus payments, expanded unemployment insurance benefits, further fiscal and monetary actions, and states reopening will hopefully begin to stabilize forbearance requests and the overall economy.” This graph shows the weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicer's portfolio volume.The requests peaked in the week of March 30th to April 5th, but might pick up again when May payments are due.The MBA notes: "Forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) dropped relative to the prior week: from 1.79% to 1.14%."
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased, Purchase Applications up 12% Week over Week - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 24, 2020. ... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 218 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ... “The news in this week’s release is that purchase applications, still recovering from a five-year low, increased 12 percent last week to the strongest level in almost a month. The ten largest states had increases in purchase activity, which is potentially a sign of the start of an upturn in the pandemic-delayed spring homebuying season, as coronavirus lockdown restrictions slowly ease in various markets,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “California and Washington continued to show increases in purchase activity, with New York seeing a significant gain after declines in five of the last six weeks.” Added Kan, “Contributing to the uptick in purchase applications was that mortgage rates fell to another record low in MBA’s survey, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 3.43 percent. However, refinance activity declined 7 percent, as rates for refinances likely remained higher than those for purchase loans. Lenders are still working through pipelines at capacity, and observed changes in credit availability for refinance loans have also in turn impacted rates.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.43 percent from 3.45 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.29 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.2% year-over-year in February - Note: This is for February. This is mostly pre-crisis data. S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3 month average of December, January and February prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Increased To 4.2% In February: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, up from 3.1% in the previous month. Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Phoenix led the way with a 7.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.0% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2020 versus the year ending January 2020. The National Index and the 10-City Composite both posted a 0.4% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase before seasonal adjustment in February. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.4% increases. In February, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. The stable growth pattern established in the last half of 2019 continued into February,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.2% in February 2020, and the 10- and 20-City Composites also advanced (by 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively). Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices. The National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in February than they had in January. “Importantly, today’s report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of February, and shows no signs of any adverse effect from the governmental suppression of economic activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As much of the U.S. economy was shuttered in March, next month’s data may begin to reflect the impact of these policies on the housing market.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
Zillow Case-Shiller March Forecast: Still Showing Increasing YoY Price Gains, Mostly Pre-Crisis -- The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: February Case-Shiller Results & March Forecast: Last Look at The World that Wasthe Case-Shiller home price index for February – the last before the data begin to show effects of the coronavirus outbreak – offers a final look at a housing market that was primed for a stellar spring selling season. ...Things were looking up for the housing market in mid-winter, with low interest rates and still-secure job prospects combining to boost demand for housing just as a growing share of millennials were looking to finally take the leap into home ownership. Teamed with record-low levels of for-sale inventory, these demand factors had begun to push home prices upward after the growth rate spent most of 2019 decelerating. The economic carnage that’s occurred since, particularly in the labor markets, has been well documented and the true impact on home prices remains to be seen.The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.4% in March, up from 4.2% in February.The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 3.8% YoY in March from 3.5% in February, and for the 10-City index to increase to 3.3% YoY compared to 2.9% YoY in February.Note that Case-Shiller is a three month average, so the March data will include both January and February. Also, Case-Shiller uses closed transactions, and most of the transactions that closed in March were signed in January and February - so the March price indexes will still be mostly pre-crisis data.
HVS: Q1 2020 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates - The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2020. This is mostly pre-crisis. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. "National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2020 were 6.6 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.6 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (7.0 percent), but not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2019 (6.4 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.1 percent was 0.3 percentage points lower than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (1.4 percent) and the rate in the fourth quarter 2019 (1.4 percent). The homeownership rate of 65.3 percent was 1.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the first quarter 2019 (64.2 percent) but was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2019 (65.1 percent)." The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate increased to 65.3% in Q1, from 65.1% in Q4. The HVS homeowner vacancy declined to 1.1%. The rental vacancy rate increased to 6.6% in Q1. The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey. Overall this suggests that vacancies have declined significantly, the homeownership rate has bottomed - and that the rental vacancy rate is close to the bottom for this cycle.
Home Ownership Rate: At 64.8% in Q1 - Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to struggle. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q1 is 65.3 percent, up from Q4 2019. The nonseasonally adjusted Q1 number is 65.3 percent, up from the Q4 2019 65.1 percent figure. The Census Bureau has been tracking the nonseasonally adjusted data since 1965. Their seasonally adjusted version only goes back to 1980. Here is a snapshot of the nonseasonally adjusted series with a 4-quarter moving average to highlight the trend. The consensus view is that trend away from homeownership is a result of rising residential real estate prices in general and limited supply of entry-level priced homes that would attract first-time buyers. Here is the YoY version of the chart going back to 1965. For an interesting comparison to prices, here is an inflation-adjusted look at the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The snapshot below gives us a crude comparison of the US homeownership rate compared to some select other countries. Our data source is a subset of the nearly four dozen countries in this Wikipedia entry on homeownership. We included the outliers at the top and bottom, Singapore at 91% (2018) and Switzerland at 43.4% (2015).
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 20.8% in March -- From the NAR: NAR Calls Housing Market Slump Temporary as Pending Home Sales Fall in March - Pending home sales fell in March, seeing expected declines as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions saw drops in month-over-month contract activity and year-over-year pending home sales transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings,decreased 20.8% to 88.2 in March. Year-over-year, contract signings declined 16.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ... The Northeast PHSI dropped 14.5% to 82.3 in March, 11.0% lower than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index decreased 22.0% to 85.6 last month, down 12.4% from March 2019. Pending home sales in the South sank 19.5% to an index of 103.7 in March, a 17.8% drop from March 2019. The index in the West fell 26.8% in March 2020 to 71.4, down 21.5% from a year ago. This was well below expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in April and May. Some of these sales will be cancelled or delayed due to COVID-19.
Construction Spending Increased in March - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in March:Construction spending during March 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,360.5 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,348.4 billion. The March figure is 4.7 percent above the March 2019 estimate of $1,299.1 billion. Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,012.5 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,005.8 billion. ... In March, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $348.0 billion, 1.6 percent above the revised February estimate of $342.6 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential spending had been increasing - but turned down in the 2nd half of 2018. It started increasing again, but will slow due to the pandemic. Residential spending is 19% below the previous peak.Non-residential spending is 11% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is 7% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 33% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 8.8%. Non-residential spending is down 1.8% year-over-year. Public spending is up 7.9% year-over-year. This was well above consensus expectations of a 3.9% decrease in spending, however construction spending for January and February were revised down. Construction spending will decline due to COVID-19, although construction is considered an essential service in most areas.
Homebuilders suddenly see sales jump as renters flee small urban apartments - Diana Olick - Home sales nearly ground to a halt at the end of March, as the coronavirus pandemic forced an economic shutdown that scuttled open houses and shattered consumer confidence. Now, demand appears to be coming back, especially for newly built homes. In the initial four weeks of the national shutdown, sales of newly built homes began falling precipitously, down 85% from normal spring activity by the fourth week. In the past two weeks, however, the numbers have started to climb, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which tracks hundreds of builders nationwide. "We're still down roughly 65%, but more positive news is coming out of the new home market, particularly for builders who are targeting the first time and entry level buyers," said Devyn Bachman, manager of research at JBRC. She noted that a wave of renters are leaving their apartments and eyeing new homes. In her research, Bachman found demand for new construction heavily skewed toward renters, especially young couples with two incomes who feel secure in their employment. "Just this week we have experienced an increase in sales, as well as continued website engagement activity," . He said all three of those sales were for speculative homes built without a buyer that were either completed or under construction for a quicker delivery. He added that his company rarely builds on speculation, "however I think buyers would rather just walk through a new home and buy it." Paul said that Mid-Atlantic is now starting to plan more speculative homes. Zillow, the nation's largest real estate listing site, reported last week a slight increase in overall search traffic after volume had dropped dramatically. Redfin, a real estate brokerage, also reported an increase potential buyer inquiries to agents. While the overall numbers are still very low, the builders may recover first for several reasons, not the least of which is they appeal to the newly germophobic. "It's safe, it's clean, it's new, and it's easy to show at this point,"
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in March - With the release of this morning's report on March Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -2.02% month-over-month change in disposable income was at -1.75% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.49% nominal and 0.41% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 0.95% nominal and -0.36% real.Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015. Disposable income began a faster increase in 2012 and 2013 that continues.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013. It will be interesting to see how the recent tax legislation affects the trend over time. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 95.6% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up only 36.9%.
Most Americans Will Be Scared To Return To Malls When Stores Finally Reopen - Over the weekend, we wrote why if one uses Wuhan as a template for what "reopening" could look like, anyone still expecting a V-shaped recovery, or even U-shaped one, could be in for a major shock: the reason - it will take months if not years for consumer fears to subside and for behavior to return to normal.This could prove catastrophic for America's already teetering shopping malls and "bricks and mortar" retailers. According to a new study by retail analytics company First Insights conducted on April 20, only one-third of American adults surveyed said that they will feel safe shopping in a mall after stores reopen. More respondents said they’ll feel safe shopping in grocery, drug and big-box stores like Target and Walmart, outlets which mostly remained open during the outbreak to sell essential goods. In an act of painful irony, before the Coronavirus pandemic hit, malls - which were already suffering from historic traffic losses, went all in in their attempts to lure shoppers people back and added such "social" elements as amusement parks, movie theaters and upgraded food courts - just the types of crowded places that have became off-limits when social distancing began.As retailers reopen after mandatory stay-at-home periods, Greg Petro, chief executive officer of First Insight, said in a statement that “malls in particular need to be thinking of ways to inspire a sense of safety for consumers, and it will need to go beyond offering gloves and masks at the door.”And, as Bloomberg notes, China may show the way again:As the nation reopened businesses following its quarantines, it’s become standard to check the temperatures of patrons entering shopping destinations. Some stores in China are being cleaned multiple times during the day. And fitting rooms and products that have been tried on are being disinfected after each use -- no more just picking up a sweater and throwing it back on the rack if it’s not the right fit.
More than 50 Atlanta restaurant owners unite in decision not to reopen - As Georgia restaurants have been given the green light to reopen their restaurants for dine-in service, with restrictions, as early as today, a group of more than 50 restaurant owners in Atlanta and Savannah, have prepared a unified statement that will be published as a full-page, paid advertisement in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in Tuesday’s print and e-paper version. The group is operating under the hashtag #GAHospitality together. Collectively, its owners operate more than 120 restaurants, the majority in greater Atlanta. None of these operators has announced plans to reopen for dine-in service. The #GAHospitality statement emphasizes the responsibility of restaurant owners in managing their operations during the COVID-19 pandemic and their role in safeguarding the health and welfare of guests and employees. “We agree that it’s in the best interest of our employees, our guest, our community, and our industry to keep our dining room closed at this time,” it reads. The ad bears the name of each restaurateur along with their place or places of business.
Wave Of Repos Imminent As Subprime Auto-Buyers Miss Payments - Subprime car lenders report a sharp drop in auto loan payments. In a sign of upcoming trouble, Subprime Car Buyers Miss Loan Payments. Credit Acceptance Corp., the lender to car buyers with subprime credit scores, warned it’s seeing a sharp drop-off in payments as people shift their financial priorities to get through the coronavirus pandemic.As unemployment soars, borrowers are putting off payments or “reallocating resources,” Credit Acceptance said in a regulatory filing Monday, explaining that it needs more time to publish a quarterly report.New lending is also slowing as dealerships across the U.S. are forced to shutter their lots, the company said.Ally Financial Inc. said on Monday that about 25% of its auto-loan customers have taken advantage of its payment-deferral program. The filing by Credit Acceptance shows some consumers already can’t keep up. Meanwhile, loan applications have plunged as dealers have closed their lots.
Exclusive: Amazon turns to Chinese firm on U.S. blacklist to meet thermal camera needs - (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc has bought cameras to take temperatures of workers during the coronavirus pandemic from a firm the United States blacklisted over allegations it helped China detain and monitor the Uighurs and other Muslim minorities, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters. China’s Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co Ltd shipped 1,500 cameras to Amazon this month in a deal valued close to $10 million, one of the people said. At least 500 systems from Dahua - the blacklisted firm - are for Amazon’s use in the United States, another person said.The Amazon procurement, which has not been previously reported, is legal because the rules control U.S. government contract awards and exports to blacklisted firms, but they do not stop sales to the private sector.However, the United States "considers that transactions of any nature with listed entities carry a 'red flag' and recommends that U.S. companies proceed with caution," according to the Bureau of Industry and Security's here website. Dahua has disputed the designation, and Beijing has denied mistreatment of the minority groups. The deal comes as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration warned of a shortage of temperature-reading devices and said it wouldn’t halt certain pandemic uses of thermal cameras that lack the agency’s regulatory approval. Top U.S.-based maker FLIR Systems Inc (FLIR.O) has faced an up to weeks-long order backlog, forcing it to prioritize products for hospitals and other critical facilities.
Dallas Fed: "Contraction in Texas Manufacturing Sector Worsens", Record Low Activity Index --From the Dallas Fed: Contraction in Texas Manufacturing Sector Worsens: Texas factory activity declined further in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, pushed further negative from -35.3 to -55.3, suggesting the contraction in output has steepened since last month. Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to a sharper decline in April. The new orders index dropped 26 points to -67.0, its lowest reading since the survey began in 2004. Similarly, the growth rate of orders index fell to -62.2. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes fell to -54.5 and -56.6, respectively. The capital expenditures index declined 20 points to -54.3. Each of these April readings represents a historical low. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained very pessimistic in April. The general business activity index inched down from -70.0 to -73.7, pushing to a new historical low. The company outlook index remained near an all-time low but inched up from -65.6 to -62.6. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks retreated slightly to 54.4, a reading still indicative of sharply increased uncertainty. Labor market measures indicate further employment declines and shorter workweeks this month. The employment index held steady at -21.2. Three percent of firms noted net hiring, while 24 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index dropped 18 points to -40.2, signaling a notably reduced workweek length.
Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Sharply in April", Lowest Reading on Record --From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined Sharply in April Fifth District manufacturing activity declined sharply in April, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index plummeted from 2 in March to −53 in April, its lowest reading and largest one-month drop on record. All three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — fell, and the indexes for shipments and new orders reached record lows. Firms reported weakened local business conditions and expected conditions to remain soft in the next six months.Survey results reflected a deterioration in employment conditions in April. More contacts reported drops in employment and average work week, although the wage index remained flat. Manufacturers expected these conditions to persist. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for April.Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
April Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for April is -23.8, down from the previous month's -1.7. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.
ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 41.5 in April - The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in April. The PMI was at 41.5% in April, down from 49.1% in March. The employment index was at 27.5%, down from 43.8% last month, and the new orders index was at 27.1%, down from 42.2%. From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The April PMI® registered 41.5 percent, down 7.6 percentage points from the March reading of 49.1 percent. The New Orders Index registered 27.1 percent, a decrease of 15.1 percentage points from the March reading of 42.2 percent. The Production Index registered 27.5 percent, down 20.2 percentage points compared to the March reading of 47.7 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 37.8 percent, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points compared to the March reading of 45.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 27.5 percent, a decrease of 16.3 percentage points from the March reading of 43.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 76 percent, up 11 percentage points from the March reading of 65 percent, limiting the decrease in the composite PMI®. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was slightly above expectations of 36.7%, but the declines in new orders and employment were even worse than the headline. This suggests manufacturing contracted sharply in April.
US Manufacturing Surveys Show Record Collapse In Output, Orders, & Jobs -- Following the utter devastation across all regional Fed surveys, it should be no surprise that this morning's national manufacturing surveys (ISM and Markit) are a disaster. •Markit US Manufacturing 36.1 - 11-year low (weaker than expected and worse than the flash print) •PMI US Manufacturing 41.5 - 11 year lows (but better than the 36.0 expected due to the farcical surge in supplier delivery times) April data signaled an unprecedented contraction in production across the U.S. manufacturing sector, overwhelmingly linked to measures implemented to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Factory closures were widely reported and the frequent cancellation or postponement of orders resulted in the largest monthly drop in the new orders index on record. Spare capacity across the sector and pessimism about the year ahead meanwhile resulted in the fastest fall in employment since March 2009, despite efforts to furlough staff. Both input costs and output charges fell sharply as companies and their suppliers offered discounts to boost sales. The headline reading was the lowest for just over eleven years... Source: Bloomberg Which confirms the collapse in regional Fed surveys...
Coronavirus: US farm sales to China hit by bumper soybean crop from Brazil, supply chain disruptions - The coronavirus pandemic and strong foreign competition are obstructing a US push to increase sales of farm products to China, even as Washington banks on Beijing buying more of its agricultural goods as part of the phase one trade deal signed in January. While analysts say the pandemic has not affected soybean shipments from the United States, cheaper beans from Brazil have made them less competitive. The South American country is also benefiting from its largest harvest on record. US pork exports, meanwhile, have been hit from coronavirus-related supply chain disruptions, forcing cuts to production capacity. China is exploring ways to accelerate purchases of farm products such as soybeans by asking state-owned firms to buy them for government reserves, Bloomberg and trade publication Agribusiness reported, citing unidentified sources. US pork and soybean farmers had high hopes of increasing their exports to China after Beijing waived a 25 per cent tariff on the American products, which was imposed in July 2018 as a countermeasure to tariffs levied by Washington in the first days of the trade war. But new data shows that any gains made late last year have tailed off. Between April 10 and 16, net sales of US soybeans for delivery during the 2019-20 crop year to all foreign buyers rose 41 per cent to 344,900 tonnes compared to the previous week, according to a weekly report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, export sales of US soybeans were down 48 per cent compared to a four-week average prior to April 10 to 16. China did not buy any soybeans between April 10 and 16 for the 2019-20 crop year, the report said. Demand for US soybeans from China have been especially weak over the last few months.“Tariff waivers have been issued to Chinese processors for the purchase of US supplies, but heavy volumes [of Chinese purchases] have still not been secured,” he said.“We saw big purchases by China through to mid-December as trade negotiations with the US progressed, but there has been very little since.”China planned to import 92.48 million tonnes of soybeans this year, up from 88.59 million t onnes in 2019, according to China's Ministry of Agriculture.
Farms in Maryland, Delaware to Destroy 2 Million Chickens Due to Staffing Shortages - Coronavirus-related staffing shortages at chicken processing plants will lead farms in Maryland and Delaware to destroy nearly 2 million chickens.The Baltimore Sun reported Friday that the plants are unable to keep pace with the number of birds that are ready for harvest. They had been placed into poultry houses as chicks several weeks ago. The chickens will not be processed for meat. The trade group the Delmarva Poultry Industry said that every poultry plant on the Delmarva Peninsula has struggled with reduced worker attendance. The reasons include workers being sick with the coronavirus and people following guidance to stay home if sick.The Delmarva Peninsula includes parts of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.The trade group said that one unidentified company has become the first to do what's called “depopulation.” The trade group said the company was unable to find other options, such as allowing another company to take the chickens.The trade group said that the extermination methods have been approved by the American Veterinary Medical Association for handling cases of infectious avian disease.Animal activists are raising concerns. Save Delmarva Chickens said it’s inhumane to use measures designed to control avian flu on healthy birds.
American Farms Cull Millions Of Chickens Amid Virus-Related Staff Shortages At Processing Plants - A significant concern that readers should have during an economic collapse and pandemic is food security. We've noted over April that troubling news is developing deep inside America's food supply chain network, suggesting shortages and rapid food inflation could be ahead. The reason behind the disruptions begins with meatpacking plants across the country are shuttering operations because of virus-related issues. At the moment, we've reported at least 10-12 large operations have gone offline in the last several weeks, which could result in pork shortages in the first or second week in May."Almost a third of U.S. pork capacity is down, the first big poultry plants closed on Friday and experts are warning that domestic shortages are just weeks away," reported Bloomberg. We also highlighted additional risks to beef and poultry capacity at processing plants that were starting to develop.Now, more specifically, diving into the world of poultry, new developments from Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia, a region known to be a top producer of chickens not just in the country but the world, is experiencing logistical issues due to coronavirus.The Baltimore Sun is reporting that 2 million chickens are set to be culled across farms in Maryland and Delaware amid coronavirus-related staffing shortages at meatpacking plants.We've heard the same story with pork, turkey, and beef processing plants across the country. Reducing operations or shutting down due to virus-related illnesses among staff. "With reduced staffing, many plants are not able to harvest chickens at the pace they planned for when placing those chicks in chicken houses several weeks ago," before strict social distancing rules went into effect, trade group for the Delmarva poultry industry said in a statement. The trade group said poultry plants across the Delmarva Peninsula, which includes parts of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, are struggling to keep plants operating as worker attendance plunges because of virus-related illnesses. The group said a large farm on the peninsula has turned to "depopulation" this month after processing plants were unable to accept chickens because of reduced capacity. It said culling chickens are last-resort options.
Farmer ends thousands of pig pregnancies as demand for meat drops during pandemic - A farmer in Iowa says he had to ordered his staff to terminate 7,500 pig pregnancies as a number of farmers across the country struggle to sell livestock amid a drop in demand for meat during the coronavirus pandemic, Reuters reports. The farmer, Al Van Beek, told the international news agency that the move to terminate the pregnancies was a difficult decision for him. “We have nowhere to go with the pigs,” he told the outlet. “What are we going to do?” As more farmers run out of places to sell their livestock and crops, Van Beek told Reuters he had to pay more than four times the cost it usually takes for him to have pigs transported for slaughter. The Iowa farmer said he used to have the animals taken to a plant run by Smithfield Foods in Sioux Falls, S.D. But after the pork producer closed that plant, he said he had to have to animals transported to another plant further away in Illinois. Another Iowa farmer in Iowa, Dean Meyer, also told Reuters his farm has had to euthanize some of their smallest piglets and others in order to adjust to the current needs of the market. “Packers are backed up every day, more and more,” he said. Around the country, more farmers have also reported having to euthanize their livestock or plow over their crops as a number of food processing plants and restaurants have closed or seen a dramatic drop in business amid the pandemic. A pair of dairy farmers from Wisconsin told the news agency that they even received death threats after they had to throw out milk.
Americans on Cusp of Meat Shortage With Food Chain Breaking Down - The coronavirus pandemic is pushing the food supply chain to its limits. Plant shutdowns are leaving Americans dangerously close to seeing meat shortages at grocery stores. Meanwhile, farmers are facing the likely culling of millions of animals and mass burial graves could soon be dug across the heartland. “The food supply chain is breaking,” said John Tyson, chairman of Tyson Foods Inc., the biggest U.S. meat company. Outbreaks are forcing the closure of some of the country’s biggest slaughterhouses, where tens of thousands of animals are processed daily. As the plants shutter, producers are left with nowhere to sell their livestock. It’s forcing farmers to make gut-wrenching decisions to dispose of their animals. The situation is so severe that the U.S. government is setting up a center partly to assist on “depopulation and disposal methods.” “Millions of pounds of meat will disappear” as plants close, Tyson said in a blog post on the company’s website. “In addition to meat shortages, this is a serious food waste issue. Farmers across the nation simply will not have anywhere to sell their livestock to be processed, when they could have fed the nation. Millions of animals – chickens, pigs and cattle – will be depopulated.” His comments echoed warnings from Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s No. 1 pork producer, and JBS SA, the biggest global meat company, that consumers are likely to see meat shortfalls. Almost a third of U.S. pork capacity is down, and JBS said Sunday it will shutter another beef production facility in Wisconsin. Brazil, the world’s No. 1 shipper of chicken and beef, saw its first major closure with the halt of a poultry plant, and key operations are also down in Canada, the latest being a British Columbia poultry plant. While hundreds of plants in the Americas are still running, the staggering acceleration of supply disruptions is alarming. Taken together, the U.S., Brazil and Canada account for about 65% of world meat trade. “It’s absolutely unprecedented,” said Brett Stuart, president of Denver-based consulting firm Global AgriTrends. “It’s a lose-lose situation where we have producers at the risk of losing everything and consumers at the risk of paying higher prices. Restaurants in a week could be out of fresh ground beef.” Meat prices are surging on the supply disruptions. U.S. wholesale beef has surged to a record, and wholesale pork soared almost 30% last week. Jersey Mike’s Franchise Systems Inc., which has 1,750 stores across the U.S., is working with its ham supplier Clemens Food Group to ensure its supply of pork, something they sell quite a bit of in their sub sandwiches. “We’re backing it up already because of the coming -- we feel -- the coming shortages,” said Peter Cancro, chief executive officer. To be sure, some plants have restarted after testing workers and improving conditions, and most Brazilian facilities are still operating. Another point to consider: There haven’t yet been big shutdowns in Europe. The European Union accounts for about a fifth of global meat exports, U.S. government data show.
US consumers rush to buy meat amid concerns over Covid-19 shortages --US meat production has continued to decline as the coronavirus crisis forces the shutdown of more processing facilities, sparking fears of shortages at grocery stores nationwide. The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly report found that from 27 April, beef production was down nearly 25% compared to the same time last year. Pork production was down 15%. While Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary, has said the US has “plenty of food for all of [its] citizens”, fewer pigs are being slaughtered at processing plants, down by nearly 50% since mid-March. Meat processing companies have paused operations as some workers have tested positive for Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Last month, Tyson Foods, one of America’s largest meat producers, warned “the food supply chain is breaking” in a full-page ad in newspapers including the New York Times. “There will be limited supply of products,” the Arkansas-based company said, until it can reopen closed facilities. On Thursday, Tyson temporarily suspended operations at its beef processing plant outside Sioux City, Iowa, after more than 900 workers tested positive for the coronavirus. The company said it would close through the weekend for deep cleaning. The facility is one of the largest beef plants in the country, employing about 4,300 people. An analysis from USA Today and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting found at least 4,400 workers had tested positive for the virus across 80 plants, causing 28 to close for at least one day. According to the United Food and Commercial Workers International Unions, at least 20 workers have died. “I wouldn’t say the food system is breaking, but at least the meat sector is in real serious, critical condition at the moment,” said Jayson Lusk, the head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, told USA Today. However, there were some signs on Friday that some meat-packing plants could be reopening. A Smithfield Foods pork processing plant in South Dakota where more than 850 workers tested positive will partially reopen on Monday after shuttering for more than two weeks, a union that represents plant workers said late on Friday. Arkansas-based Tyson Foods said its Logansport, Indiana, pork processing plant where nearly 900 employees tested positive will also resume “limited production” on Monday.
Nearly 28 million workers applied for unemployment insurance benefits in the last six weeks - The number of workers applying for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits has risen to never-before-seen levels as a result of the coronavirus shock. In the last six weeks, nearly 28 million workers have applied for unemployment compensation. That is more than one in six workers, and over five times theworst period of the Great Recession. I should note that the Department of Labor (DOL) reports that 30.3 million workers applied for UI during the last six weeks on a “seasonally adjusted” basis, compared with 27.9 million on an unadjusted basis. Seasonal adjustments are typically helpful—they are used to even out seasonal changes in claims that have nothing to do with the underlying strength or weakness of the labor market, providing a clearer picture of underlying trends. However, the way DOL does seasonal adjustments is distortionary at a time like this, so I focus on unadjusted numbers here. All else equal, job loss of the magnitude reflected in the UI claims of the last six weeks would translate into an unemployment rate of 20.5%. It’s worth remembering that unemployment hits different racial groups differently as a result of things like occupational segregation, differences in access to educational credentials, discrimination, and other labor market disparities related to race. In our economy, in good times and bad, the white unemployment rate tends to be about 0.9 times the overall unemployment rate, and the black unemployment rate tends to be about 1.8 times the overall unemployment rate. That means that an overall unemployment rate of 20.5% would translate into a white unemployment rate of 18.4% and a black unemployment rate of 36.8%. However, the official unemployment rates, when they are released, will likelynot reflect all coronavirus-related layoffs. This is due to the fact that jobless workers are only counted as unemployed if they are available to work and actively seeking work. That means many workers who lose their job as a result of the virus will be counted as dropping out of the labor force instead of as unemployed, because they are unable to search for work due to the lockdown, or because they are not available to work because they are, for example, caring for children whose day care has closed. March data suggest that roughly half of workers who are out of work as a result of the virus will be counted as unemployed, and half are being counted as dropping out of the labor force.
New survey confirms that millions of jobless were unable to file an unemployment insurance claim -- Millions of the newly jobless are going without benefits as the unemployment system buckles under the weight of new claims, according to our new national survey, conducted in mid-April. For every 10 people who said they successfully filed for unemployment benefits during the previous four weeks:
- Three to four additional people tried to apply but could not get through the system to make a claim.
- Two additional people did not try to apply because it was too difficult to do so.
These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis. To quantify the undercount, we look at the 21.5 million workers who filed for unemployment benefits from March 22 to April 18. Our results suggest:
- An additional 7.8 to 12.2 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier.
- After accounting for these workers—who applied but could not get through or did not try because of the difficult process—about half of potential UI applicants are actually receiving benefits.
When we extrapolate our survey findings to the full five weeks of UI claims since March 15, we estimate that an additional 8.9–13.9 million people could have filed for benefits had the process been easier. These findings on the millions of frustrated filers and the UI system’s low payment rate highlight the need for policies to improve rather than hinder the UI application process. At a minimum, states should presume everyone is eligible and immediately pay benefits, only verifying eligibility and reviewing claims after the unprecedented wave of claims slows down.
Millions of Americans can't access unemployment benefits: EPI survey— The number of Americans who have lost their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic could be even bleaker than official government data suggests.For every 10 people who successfully filed for unemployment insurance benefits over four weeks in March and April, an additional three to four people tried and failed to make claims, according to a survey released Tuesday by the Economic Policy Institute."These findings imply the official count of unemployment insurance claims likely drastically understates the extent of employment reductions and the need for economic relief during the coronavirus crisis," the study's authors Ben Zipperer and Elise Gould wrote.An unprecedented 26.4 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance benefits since mid-March, according to the Labor Department.Unemployment has risen at a record pace as businesses across the country have shut down to comply with stay-at-home orders.State unemployment offices are overwhelmed by the surge in claims from newly-laid off workers. Residents in states like Florida have complained they have been unable to reach their local offices to file for benefits. The EPI survey estimated between 8.9 million and 13.9 million more Americans would have filed for claims over the past five weeks had the process been easier. "These findings on the millions of frustrated filers and the UI (unemployment insurance) system's low payment rate highlight the need for policies to improve rather than hinder the UI application process," the authors said.The process for filing for unemployment benefits varies widely across the country. Some states rely almost exclusively on telephone and in-person filings, while others use forms online."How difficult it is to get unemployment benefits matters for how many claims get approved and how big the backlog is in the system," Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Torsten Slok wrote in a note Monday. The EPI survey of 24,607 Americans was conducted online from April 14 to April 24. 9.4% of survey respondents said they "applied successfully" for unemployment insurance benefits, while 3.4% said they tried but could not get through. An additional 1.9% of respondents said they did not apply because it was too difficult.
States Made It Harder to Get Jobless Benefits. Now That’s Hard to Undo - The state unemployment systems that were supposed to help millions of jobless workers were full of boxes to check and mandates to meet that couldn’t possibly apply in a pandemic. States required workers to document their job searches, weekly; to register with employment services, in person; to take a wait period before their first check, up to 10 days.Such requirements increased in the years following the Great Recession, as many states moved to tighten access to or reduce unemployment benefits. With them, most states cut the share of jobless workers they helped. Now these requirements have been getting in the way. Effectively, many states have been trying to scale up aid with systems built to keep claims low. “In a time when pretty much everybody who’s applying should be eligible, we’re working with a system that got us to a 26 percent recipiency rate,” said Steve Gray, the director of Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance Agency. That means Michigan was giving aid to one in four unemployed workers in 2019, following restrictions adopted by the Michigan legislature after the Great Recession. That system, Mr. Gray said, was “built to assume that you’re guilty and make you prove that you’re innocent.”The crush of claims has demanded of states not just more server capacity and call-center workers, but also an abrupt change in the premise of the safety net: Systems trained to treat each case as potentially fraudulent must now presume that millions have legitimately lost their jobs.System crashes and website glitches are tied to this challenge, too. Requirements embedded in the architecture of unemployment must be turned off, worked around, or simply ignored.“If after you submit your application, you receive a message that states you are not covered and your claim has been denied, please disregard,” Kentucky’s unemployment website reads.“The Department of Economic Opportunity has suspended the requirement to provide work search contacts,” Florida’s system said, in red letters. But forms asking workers to document their job searches remained online for weeks. The hitches have frustrated Congress’s intent to steer trillions of dollars to workers.
Study: 71 percent of jobless Americans didn’t receive March unemployment benefits The majority of unemployed Americans did not receive unemployment benefits in March — a month that shattered US records for job loss claims — according to a new study.The Pew Research Center has found that, although more than 11 million Americans filed first-time unemployment claims in March, the wide variety of methods states and territories use to administer their jobless programs have resulted in wide disparities in who has received their payments, and how much those payments were worth.As a result, only 29 percent of jobless Americans received benefits in March, according to Pew’s analysis of Labor Department statistics. The disbursement rate of unemployment payments was found to vary widely, with nearly 66 percent of unemployed Massachusetts residents receiving their benefits, compared to only 7.6 percent of unemployed Florida residents.The federal CARES Act, the $2.2 trillion stimulus package aimed at addressing coronavirus-related economic fallout, featured provisions meant to boost the size and scope of unemployment benefits. But it left the distribution of funds to the states — many of which have outdated, underfunded, and inefficient methods for enrolling the newly unemployed, asVox’s Ella Nilsen has explained.Also at issue, Pew notes, is those seeking support “face a hodgepodge of different state rules governing how they can qualify for benefits, how much they’ll get and how long they can collect them.”For example, in some states, workers must wait a week before they can start collecting benefits. In others, workers who receive commission, rather than standard wages, are ineligible for aid. And, in many states, people may exhaust their benefits after a certain period of time — a scenario that is unworkable in a job market in which standard employment is largely on hold for the foreseeable future. (The CARES Act does extend the length of people’s eligibility for federal benefits after their state benefits run out, the study notes.) These different scenarios result in regional disparities in who receives benefits — and mean that millions of those eligible did not, and perhaps still have not, received aid. By and large, the states where the fewest jobless people (under 15 percent) received benefits were in the South, and the states where the most jobless people (more than 40 percent) received benefits were in the Northeast and Midwest.
Florida has overtaken California as the US jobless claims capital - Florida overtook California on Thursday as the U.S. state with the most weekly unemployment claims as Tallahassee began to process in earnest its sizable backlog of filings. Florida, which reported 432,465 jobless claims for the week ended April 25, topped California’s 328,042, marking the first time since the week ended March 21 that the Golden State didn’t lead the nation in the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits. Though both states reported declines in the number of workers seeking insurance from the prior week, that Florida is now leading the chart is notable since its labor force is about half that of California’s. Texas and Georgia also saw a significant number of claims last week with each state reporting at least 250,000. The relative surge in Florida claims is likely thanks to an improvement in the state’s ability to process filings. The Associated Press reported last week that nearly 7 of every 8 Floridians who managed to file claims during the three weeks from mid-March until early April were waiting to have them processed. California and Texas had about two-thirds of claims backlogged, while New York had about 30% of claims waiting, AP reported. “A look at unemployment claims around the country by state strongly implies that there will be a surge in unemployment claims in two states: Texas and Florida,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in a note. “The collapse of the oil and energy complex in Texas will certainly cause a surge in claims, as well as in Florida, where widespread issues in processing so many claims will almost surely cause a jump in first-time claims over the next month,” he added.
12.7 million workers have likely lost employer-provided health insurance since the coronavirus shock began -- EPI --Since the economic fallout of the coronavirus shock began in early March, the number of workers laid-off or furloughed—as measured by new claims for unemployment insurance (UI)—has skyrocketed. We have used data from states that track UI claims by industry to get a rough estimate of how many workers are at high risk of losing their employer-provided health insurance (EPHI) over this as well.The methodology is described in this blog post, and the underlying data (which has begun to include more and more states tracking UI claims by industry) can be found here. Table 1 below shows UI claims by industry across states that collect this data, and also shows employer-provided health insurance (EPHI) coverage rates in those industries in 2018. As of April 30, just under 28 million workers had been laid off or furloughed since early March. We find that this translates into likely EPHI losses of 12.7 million.Because the United States is unique among rich countries in tying health insurance benefits to employment, many of the newly unemployed will suddenly face prohibitively costly insurance options. A comprehensive policy solution would be to extend Medicare and Medicaid to all those suffering job losses during the pandemic period, with the federal government funding this expansion. It has been proposed that the federal government pay for all of COBRA coverage so that workers who are laid off or furloughed may continue their employer-provided coverage. While this policy proposal will help many workers continue coverage, in some states it will not help workers from small businesses with fewer than 20 employees, who are not eligible for COBRA.The linkage between specific jobs and the availability of health insurance is a prime source of inefficiency and inequity in the U.S. health system. It is especially terrifying for workers to lose their health insurance as a result of, and during, an ongoing pandemic.
Los Angeles mayor releases plan for massive budget cutting and city worker furloughs - As of Thursday, the official COVID-19 case count in Los Angeles stood at 16,449 with 732 deaths. The Los Angeles County Department of Health Services released a new projection this week estimating that the virus would infect 11 percent of the population instead of an earlier projected 30 percent. This figure relies entirely on the continuance of strict social distancing measures; however, city and state officials are beginning plans to force workers back to work, meaning the death count could increase substantially. Late implementation of social distancing measures and virtually nonexistent testing and contact tracing will still result in upwards of 4,500 deaths according to the department’s new estimate. The economic impact of the pandemic has also been felt particularly hard in Los Angeles. A significant percentage of the city’s workforce is employed in the entertainment, tourism and hospitality industries, which have been entirely shut down. According to an April study conducted by the University of Southern California, less than half of Los Angeles County residents reported having a job in April. Only 45 percent of Angelinos reported having a job that month. This represents a 16 percent slide from mid-March, when 61 percent reporting having a job. The figure, representing 1.6 million jobs lost in a total population of 10.3 million, is even larger than the national average fall of 10 percent during the same period. The massive job losses have led to a 10 percent decrease in the amount of city residents able to pay rent in April, a number that is sure to increase as the job losses continue to mount and hours are cut. Quite alarmingly, the percentage of Los Angeles residents reporting psychological distress increased by 12 percent to 48 percent during the same time period. Los Angeles County has barred evictions throughout the length of the shutdown. However, back-due rent will have to be repaid once the shutdown ends. The city council is proposing a rental subsidy of $1,000 per household per month for those unable to pay, but the measure depends on a combination of federal government subsidies and private “philanthropy.” In other words, it is highly unlikely that even this inadequate measure will secure passage.
Several states starting to reopen this weekend | TheHill -- 04/25/20 A handful of states in the U.S. are beginning to reopen some businesses starting this weekend as governors across the country grapple with when and how to ease restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Georgia’s stay-at-home order expires on April 30, but Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced this week that he would allow some businesses, including hair salons and gyms, to resume business starting Friday, which resulted in some backlash from local and national leaders. "Certainly as mayor, my power does not supersede that of governor, but I do have the power of my voice," Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) told MSNBC on Tuesday, one day after Kemp announced he would allow some businesses to reopen. "I am asking people to please stay home." Oklahoma, which has far fewer positive cases and deaths than Georgia, began opening hair and nail salons and other personal care businesses along with state parks on Friday. Oklahoma also allowed hospitals to resume elective surgeries Friday. In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee (R ) said on Monday that “the vast majority of businesses” will be allowed to reopen when the state’s stay-at-home order expires on April 30, and as of Friday state parks and dine-in restaurants were allowed to open with reduced capacity. Tennessee was one of the last states to issue a stay-at-home order. Tennessee’s largest cities such as Nashville and Memphis are drafting their own reopening plans. “We want to have the majority of businesses open before May 1,” Lee said Friday. “Not every industry will be in a position open safely immediately.” Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) announced Friday that his stay-at-home order is expiring Sunday and that a "safer at home" order will go into effect on Monday. In Texas, some stores were allowed to offer "retail to go" starting Friday. The businesses allowed to open must do so at reduced capacity, and residents are still required to wear face masks. The state's stay-at-home order remains in effect until April 30, while state parks reopened earlier this week. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) said earlier in the week that after the state’s stay-at-home order expires on Sunday, the state will enter a "safer at home" phase during which residents will be recommended to stay home but not obligated to do so. The new restrictions allow small businesses and “personal services” such as hair salons to reopen Monday, though they'll be under health restrictions and must follow certain guidelines not yet provided by the state. Alaska’s stay-at-home order expired this week, and Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) allowed restaurants and other retail businesses to reopen Friday as long as they follow the health mandates issued by the state. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) announced a phased reopening starting Sunday, when churches will be allowed to reopen with social distancing measures in place. Restaurants serving customers at reduced capacity and schools will be allowed to reopen May 7. Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Colorado, Mississippi and Alaska all have closed K-12 schools for the remainder of the academic year. Public health experts have warned that reopening too soon could potentially result in a second wave of the virus just as the U.S. is beginning to see the pandemic's horizon. However, economic pressure has forced government officials to make difficult decisions as over 26 million Americans have applied for their first round of unemployment insurance since March, and jobless claims have broken historic highs.
Tennessee state government plans to lift social-distancing measures as health care crisis looms A social catastrophe is threatening to occur as Tennessee Republican Governor Bill Lee prepares to lift the state’s mandatory two-week “safer at home” response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lee, who only reluctantly established the two-week stay-at-home order, has set May 1 for the restriction to be lifted in 89 of the state’s 95 counties. The major cities and metropolitan areas of Nashville, Knoxville, Memphis and Chattanooga, along with two other counties will be exempt from the lifting of restrictions. Those exemptions, according to Lee, are because the various localities have their own health departments. The remainder of the state relies on the Tennessee Department of Health for services. Lee, along with Republican governors in Georgia and South Carolina has put plans into motion or has already implemented plans to partially lift COVID-19 restrictions. As of Friday, the state of Tennessee has recorded 8,266 cases and 170 deaths, as well as 3,828 recovered. Shelby County, which includes the city of Memphis, had the second highest number of cases, 2,001, and the highest number of deaths with 42. Nashville had only 10 more cases, 2,011, but exactly half the number of deaths at 21. These numbers are likely to be vast underestimates due to the relatively limited number of tests that have been provided in the state. The rate of testing in the state is roughly 16 people per 1,000, or about 1.5 percent. “As of Tuesday… More than 181,100 people have been tested in Tennessee so far, a small fraction of the more than 6.8 million people who live in the state,” stated Tennessee’s NewsChannel 5 Investigates television program. Lee’s decision, which is based on nothing more than cold-blooded financial calculation, amounts to a policy of social murder. The decision has been met with immediate criticism from the medical and scientific community. Dr. Aaron Milstone, a pulmonologist who several weeks before organized a petition of 9,500 physicians and healthcare workers urging Lee to adopt basic social distancing measures, lambasted the governor’s latest move.
Newport Folk And Jazz Festivals Canceled Due To Coronavirus - On Wednesday, two storied, sibling American music festivals — the Newport Folk Festival and the Newport Jazz Festival — announced that they are being canceled for 2020, due to coronavirus concerns. Each event is scheduled to return in the summer of 2021. In a set of nearly twin messages, the executive director of the Newport Festivals Foundation, Jay Sweet, announced the cancellations. In a press release, Sweet said that "together with our local leaders and [Rhode Island] governor Gina Raimondo, we have concluded that at this time we risk too much in having a gathering of our size. " Currently, all gatherings of more than five people are banned across the state. As of now, there is a stay-at-home order in place until May 8. For both festivals, Sweet says, all artists who were invited to perform in 2020 have already been invited for the 2021 editions. He also promised that "we will all commune one way or another on our festival weekend[s]."
Conservative New Yorkers trust Cuomo over Trump on reopening state: poll -- Conservative New Yorkers said they trust Gov. Andrew Cuomo (N.Y.) more than President Trump to make a decision to reopen the state, according to a poll released Monday. The Siena College Research Institute poll found that 57 percent of New Yorkers who identify as conservative favor the governor to decide when the state reopens, while 34 percent of conservatives would rather Trump make the call. Out of Republicans, 56 percent favor Cuomo, and 36 percent favor Trump make the decision.Overall, 78 percent of New York respondents said Cuomo should decide to reopen the state after it has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic. A total of 16 percent believed the decision should fall to Trump."When it comes to whom New Yorkers trust more to make decisions about reopening the state and its economy — the President or the Governor — it's not even close," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg in a press release.Legal experts have said governors ultimately have the power to reopen their states after Trump had asserted earlier this month that he had that authority. A total of 87 percent of New Yorkers back Cuomo’s closures of non-essential businesses, including 81 percent of Republicans and 79 percent of conservatives. Cuomo’s order requiring people to wear face coverings in public had 92 percent approval, with 91 percent of Republicans and 88 percent of conservatives. The governor’s favorability reached an all-time high of 77 percent in the poll, with 21 percent of respondents disapproving. In the meantime, 31 percent of respondents found Trump favorable, and 66 percent found him unfavorable.
With over 1 million coronavirus cases and 60,000 fatalities in the US, markets eager to get back to business --World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated, in a briefing last week, “Make no mistake, we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a long time…while social distancing measures put in place in numerous countries to slow the spread of the coronavirus have been successful, the virus remains extremely dangerous. Current data shows that most of the world’s population remains susceptible.” During Monday’s briefing, Dr. Mike Ryan, in response to a Brazilian reporter’s question on his country’s decision to ease restrictions based on figures that are clearly underreported, stated that if countries begin the opening of their economies too quickly, it may have more dire consequences on the livelihood of the nation, as they would have to reimpose lockdown measures to mitigate a second acceleration of the outbreak.Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove carefully noted that it was insufficient to base decisions to loosen these measures solely on the basis of case numbers and deaths alone. More importantly is the need to have a workforce in place to track contacts, to implement an expansive infrastructure to detect the location and movement of the virus, appreciate the status of hospitalization and critical care capacity, and have schools and workplaces reconfigured to begin slowly receiving people into these physical spaces. The entire population needs to be engaged, informed and cooperative with these processes. “It requires mental preparation,” Van Kerkhove said. Globally the number of daily cases has been declining slowly since peaking at the beginning of the month and has now reached over 3.1 million cases. Nearly 1 million people have recovered from COVID-19. Similarly, the daily number of fatalities has seen a steady decline, with the number of total critical cases around 56,000. Country after country have been in some form of discussion to begin easing restrictions given these seemingly favorable developments. However, as much as the response to the pandemic was of an improvisational character, the manner and approach to opening economies are disorganized, woefully unsystematic and grossly premature. Rather than heeding the advice of institutions like the WHO or their own public health officials and epidemiologists, the argument that the economy has suffered too much finds open and unapologetic expression among governors and political leaders.Majority of Americans support another two weeks of lockdown: poll - About three-quarters of Americans favor continuing shutdowns for another two weeks to stem the spread of the coronavirus, compared to only about 10 percent who oppose doing so, according to a poll by Business Insider and SurveyMonkey. The poll, conducted April 28-29 among 1,099 respondents, found 50 percent strongly support at least another two weeks of social distancing measures, with another 25 percent saying they supported them. Six percent said they opposed continuing the measures, compared to 4 percent who were strongly opposed. A larger portion—14 percent—said they had no opinion. The survey comes as a handful of states have announced the lifting of some restrictions, including Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has announced some businesses may begin the reopening process on Friday, as well as Georgia, which began the reopening process at the end of last week. It also comes days after Attorney General William Barr suggested the Justice Department will intervene if it feels state or local measures infringe on the constitution. "If a state or local ordinance crosses the line from an appropriate exercise of authority to stop the spread of COVID-19 into an overbearing infringement of constitutional and statutory protections, the Department of Justice may have an obligation to address that overreach in federal court,” Barr wrote in a memo Monday. Pollsters conducted the poll based on a national sample balanced by census data on age and gender. It has a margin of error of three points and a 95 percent confidence level. A statewide poll of Colorado, meanwhile, indicated that a majority of residents of the state who have lost work as a result of the pandemic oppose an immediate reopening. Sixty-four percent of those who lost a job, income or hours due to the pandemic were in favor of keeping the state’s businesses closed despite the Sunday expiration of the stay-at-home order.
10,000 nursing home workers vote to strike in Illinois in the face of life-threatening working conditions - On Monday, 10,000 workers at 40 Illinois nursing homes, the majority in the Chicago area, voted to strike May 8, one week after the current collective bargaining agreement with the nursing home companies and the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Illinois-Indiana (SEIU HCII) union officially ends. The workers are demanding personal protective equipment (PPE), safety protocols, hazard pay, an increase in base pay, paid time off for COVID-related illness, increased staffing, health insurance and transparency about COVID-19 cases in the nursing homes, where in Illinois 35 percent of the states’ nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred. Nursing home workers, nurses and nursing assistants risk their lives each day while working during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many have been fired for requesting adequate PPE in facilities with confirmed cases. In a livestreamed video on the SEIU Healthcare IL & IN Facebook page, one worker recounted that she was fired for demanding PPE, more staff, and transparent communication from the Alden Wentworth nursing home in Chicago, part of the Chicago-area Alden Network of for-profit long-term care facilities where patients and workers have died from COVID-19. “How hard is it for the governor to get us a proper mask? Can you imagine telling a child that her mother is dead from something that was completely preventable?” she asked. The parasitic for-profit nursing home industry brings in billions of dollars for private equity firms, real estate trusts and Wall Street investors. Before the pandemic broke out, the value of the US long-term care market was projected to reach $737.1 billion by 2026 with a compounded annual growth rate of over 7 percent. A registered nurse who has worked at nursing homes throughout the Chicago area said, “I’m in agreement with them going on strike. It’s about time they stand up for themselves. I have been in contact with old co-workers, and can only imagine the conditions now that COVID-19 is here. If they were lacking the supplies before, imagine what it is like now. One of my old workplaces was a 146-bed facility, and on the night shift there were two nurses and two assistants (CNAs) for one eight-hour shift. “People are scared to go to work because of COVID-19. It’s not worth losing their lives for $9 to $10 per hour. That’s why there is a short supply of CNAs and nurses. At one facility I heard all the CNAs except one quit after they heard about COVID-19. “These conditions are dangerous for patients and staff. We need to get proper rest so we can care for the patients. The workers are paid very low wages, there are not enough staff, and [the nursing homes] ask you to work 16 hours every day, to the point that you can’t say no. Instead of hiring more staff, they give out overtime. “At that facility, they had no proper PPE, no masks, and were told they could not wear a mask because of ‘dignity.’ As soon as there were confirmed COVID-19 cases they got masks, but they had to wear the same one all week. We are taught in nursing school that we are supposed to discard the mask between rooms.
TSA checkpoint travel numbers - The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This is another measure that will be useful to track when the economy starts to reopen. This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). On April 26th there were 128,875 travelers compared to 2,506,809 a year ago. That is a decline of 95%.
Oregon Strip Club Opens Drive-Thru And Delivery Service - We’ve covered the recent invention of drive-thru swabbing for covid-19 testing, but one strip club in Oregon has taken things to a new level—they opened a drive-thru right through the stage so people can still come get a show. Yes, the performers are wearing proper PPE. The Lucky Devil Lounge in Portland, Oregon has pivoted to serve food pickup and delivery service for drive-thru motorists and customers at home, which it started doing the day after it was ordered to close on March 16 over the novel coronavirus outbreak. The only issue was people weren’t coming for the food. The draw of the business was obviously the performers on stage. So Lucky Devil owner Shon Boulden decided to set up a big tent in the parking lot with a drive-thru stage, so customers could come pick up their food and still tip their favorite performer. Taking it one step further, Boulden also got the performers to start doing deliveries. Here’s more from Reuters: The club’s drive-through, promoted on social media with the hashtag “Food 2 Go-Go,” drew a steady stream of cars on Friday night. Motorized customers were directed into a large tent, where they were greeted from stages on both sides by pole-dancing women wearing sequined masks and gloves, and little else but nipple paisties, G-string bikini bottoms and stiletto boots. The performances included throbbing music furnished by a D.J., stage lights, and prizes presented to customers at a safe distance by dancers using long plastic grabbers - like those used to pick up litter. Giveaways have included samples from a local cannabis dispensary and rolls of toilet paper. One dancer, who goes by the stage name Karma Jane, performed on Friday night in a gas mask. Hey, business is business. If there’s demand for people to come pick up their food from almost naked people in a parking lot tent—and pay $30 extra on top of the food price for it—then I say why stop when the epidemic cools down?
‘It feels like nobody cares’: the Americans living without running water amid Covid-19 - Joshua Haynes was raised to work hard and take care of his family without asking for outside help. But when the utility bills arrived last month, he knew there would be trouble. Haynes, 34, a construction worker from Newbern, Tennessee, was left without income after the governor issued a stay-at-home order in early April. As a cash-in-hand builder, he is not eligible to claim unemployment insurance, and the stimulus cheque still had not arrived. “I always pay my bills on time, but without work, I just didn’t have the money to cover everything, so I asked for an extension. They said no,” Haynes said. Haynes, who lives with his wife and three children, managed to get the money just six days after the bill was due, but the city refused to accept the payment unless he also paid a $70 reconnection charge. He didn’t have it, and the charge didn’t make sense as they had not been disconnected. A few hours after his payment was turned down, the taps were turned off, even as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged people to frequently wash their hands in order to prevent the virus spreading. For a week, the family survived on sodas and microwave meals, cleaning their hands with gel and flushing the toilet with buckets of water filled at a neighbour’s. In the end, Haynes returned to work despite the stay-at-home order so that he could get an advance on his wages to pay the reconnection fee. “It’s wrong what they did, especially with so many people out of work. I felt angry and embarrassed. I’d never missed a bill before … I had no choice but to go back to work,” he said. Haynes is among a rapidly growing number of working people faced with impossible economic and health tradeoffs during the coronavirus pandemic – which has so far left more than 61,000 Americans dead and 30 million unemployed. A third of American households – about 120 million people – still risk having their water disconnected and racking up exorbitant fees, despite calls from a coalition of lawmakers and advocates to suspend all utility shutoffs until the country drags itself out of this unprecedented crisis. And while more than 600 localities and 13 states have mandated moratoriums on disconnecting residents since early March, some of these will soon expire as states reopen for business.
U.S. food banks run short on staples as hunger soars- It’s pitch black in El Paso, Texas, when the minivans and pickups start lining up at 4 a.m., snaking for more than a mile down the desert roadway leading to the city’s largest food bank. When rations are finally distributed five hours later, many boxes are filled with too many castoff beefsteak tomatoes but no pasta. Nor is there any rice, beans or other dry or canned goods. “We really have no dry goods,” said Bonnie Escobar, chief development officer of El Pasoans Fighting Hunger. Food banks nationwide are squeezed between short supplies and surging demand from needy families as the coronavirus pandemic has put more than 26 million Americans out of work. In New York City, the mayor appointed a food czar as lines of masked people form outside overstretched charities. More than a third of the city’s food banks have closed for lack of supplies, donations or volunteers, who are harder to recruit because of infection fears, according to the New York Mission Society. In San Diego, a local food bank waits on a $1 million order it placed weeks ago. Chicago and Houston food banks say they are nearly out of staples. Before the pandemic, 1 in 7 Americans relied on food banks, according to Feeding America, a national network of the charities. Now, demand has doubled or tripled at many organizations, U.S. food bank operators told Reuters. And yet farmers are destroying produce, dumping milk and culling livestock because the pandemic has upended supply chains, making it impossible for many to get crops to market. Grocery stores struggle to stock shelves because suppliers can’t adjust to the sudden shift of demand away from shuttered restaurants to retailers, which requires different packaging and distribution networks. “The U.S. likely has a surplus of food right now,” said Keith Dailey, group vice president of corporate affairs at Kroger Co, the No. 1 U.S. supermarket operator. “It’s just hard to recover and redistribute.” Before the pandemic, Feeding America member organizations received about a third of their food from grocery store programs that “rescue” fresh food and dry goods that are imperfect or close to expiration. Almost a quarter came from government programs that provide meat, cheese and other products. The rest came through donations from farmers and grocers and purchases by the food banks.
Food banks face supply and volunteer shortages as mass hunger rises in the US - Food banks in the United States are facing a crisis of epic proportions as tens of millions of people across the country are finding themselves in need of aid from food pantries and soup kitchens to stave off hunger. The coronavirus pandemic has brought alongside it a staggering rise in joblessness and wage reductions, driving underfunded charitable food services to the brink due to the explosion in need. In scenes that recall the long breadlines during the great depression of the 1930s, millions over the past month have been compelled to wait in massive line ups and drive-through food banks to seek emergency food assistance. Major cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas and Cleveland are witnessing lines up to six miles long at pop-up distribution points, where thousands of recently furloughed and unemployed people are waiting hours for grocery boxes. Now, the shortening of food supplies in food banks is bringing a significant portion of the American population face to face with the very real prospect of starvation. Demand for food aid is growing against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic and health care crisis. In the United States, the death toll from COVID-19 accounts for more than one-quarter of the global total, surpassing 61,000, and is poised to climb to more than 70,000 next week. US infections have now reached over 1 million, one-third of all infections worldwide. Since late March, over 27 million people filed unemployment claims, on top of 7 million that had already been unemployed. This is a significant undercount of the number now out of work, with millions ineligible to file since they are independent contractors or undocumented immigrants. The corporate and financial oligarchy, along with the media and political establishment is exploiting the widespread social suffering sparked by the virus’ spread in a reckless effort to compel workers to risk their lives going back to work under conditions in which the pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down. Health experts have warned that a hasty return to work will result in a second wave, which could cause a return to nationwide lockdowns and business closures on an even greater scale, not to mention an acceleration of the already skyrocketing death toll. Under the current conditions, Feeding America, which is one of the largest non-profit food bank organizations in the US, is already struggling to maintain its supplies. According to Chief Operating Officer Katie Fitzgerald, its food banks are seeing a 40 percent increase in demand. Officials for the organization are reporting that they are fielding double to quadruple the number of requests for assistance than they have normally had to deal with. In an interview with CNN earlier this month, Fitzgerald said her organization has suffered a “significant and fast plummet” of meal lending from their retail and supermarket partners. Its donations from food manufacturers total 580 million meals and their inventory has dropped by over half just this month. Due to the decline in donations, Feeding America and many other non-profits have turned to purchasing supplies directly from food manufacturers and distributors, but this may take up to four weeks to reach the hundreds of food banks in the organization’s network. Inventories for food banks depend mostly on donations from giant supermarket conglomerates such as Walmart and Kroger. But due to the rise of purchases from consumers, supplies for food banks are beginning to diminish rapidly as shelves in retail and grocery stores go empty. As a result, deliveries to food pantries have been vastly reduced, making it nearly impossible to accommodate the flood of newly unemployed clients
National Guard Deployed At Nation's Food Banks To Ensure Stability During Unprecedented Times - There is increasing evidence on social media that the National Guard has been deployed to the nation's food banks to ensure food supply chain networks are not severed, and shortages do not materialize. This comes at a challenging period for the country, one where 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in five weeks as the economy crashes into depression. We have documented the unprecedented volume of Americans flooding food banks across the country in the last four weeks as a hunger crisis develops. Now it appears National Guard troops have been deployed to food banks in many states to make sure logistical pipelines of food to these facilities can continue dishing out care packages to the working poor.And why would the Pentagon, likely instructed by the Trump administration, deploy military assets to food banks? Because food shortages are already starting to develop as facilities are overwhelmed with hungry people. The deployment of military assets to these facilities is a reflection of where the government believes the most vulnerable parts of instabilities reside at the moment. Just imagine if some of these places ran out of food, and people in mile-long lines were told to go home empty-handed. That would leave many in an untenable hangry state where social instabilities could be seen. So, without further ado, here is the military deployed at the nation's food banks:
- A very cool #timelapse of the #Delaware #NationalGuard assisting a food bank … https://t.co/FTMes5YZtB #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/u2urIovGO7
- Yesterday, Texas Army National Guard Soldiers supported local food bank efforts in Coldspring, Texas, serving over 2,000 families. We are #InThisTogether.#COVID19NationalGuard pic.twitter.com/WHcn567ww1
- U.S. Army National Guard Soldiers with Joint Task Force 59, #SCGuard, assist the Harvest Hope Food Bank in Columbia, April 22, with loading food for people in need (: Sgt. Tim Andrews) #NationalGuard #Covid_19 #InThisTogether pic.twitter.com/VZltT2G0ds
- 4/8 The National Guard brought 5 truckloads of food to The Salvation Army for The Shared Harvest Food Bank but no forklift. Off.Lusk called Denny Lumber & was able to get one lined up and escorted it.Denny Lumber saved the day! #InThisTogetherOhio pic.twitter.com/b3pLvJT9DK
- Always Ready, Always There! @AZNationalGuard deliver food & supplies for Navajo Nation residents April 17, 2020, at a local food bank in Black Mesa, Arizona.#InThisTogether #ArmyCOVID19Fight
- (see many more)
'A phantom plague': America's Bible Belt played down the pandemic and even cashed in. Now dozens of pastors are dead - Dozens of pastors across the Bible Belt have succumbed to coronavirus after churches and televangelists played down the pandemic and actively encouraged churchgoers to flout self-distancing guidelines. As many as 30 church leaders from the nation's largest African American Pentecostal denomination have now been confirmed to have died in the outbreak, as members defied public health warnings to avoid large gatherings to prevent transmitting the virus. Deaths across the US in areas where the Church of God in Christ has a presence have reportedly stemmed from funerals and other meetings among clergy and other church staff held during the pandemic. The tragedy among one of the largest black Pentecostal groups follows a message of defiance from many American churches, particularly conservative Christian groups, to ignore state and local government mandates against group gatherings, with police increasingly called in to enforce the bans and hold preachers accountable. The virus has had a wildly disproportionate impact among black congregations, many of which have relied on group worship. Yet despite the climbing death toll, many US church leaders throughout the Bible Belt have not only continued to hold services but have urged worshippers to continue paying tithes — including recent stimulus checks — to support their mission. Most congregations are following stay-at-home guidelines, according to recent polling that found that nearly 90 per cent of congregations have closed their churches and been encouraged to worship at home. But 20 per cent of parishioners say they're encouraged to attend in-person services, and another 17 per cent continue to do so. The survey found that evangelicals were more likely to report worshipping in person. In states with restrictions on attending church as well as those without, nearly a third of church-attending evangelicals said they continued to attend in person.
How Does A Harvard Professor Think It's Authoritarian To Allow Parents To Teach Their Kids - Harvard University law professor has called for a “presumptive ban” on homeschooling — claiming that the freedom to do so under our current laws is “authoritarian.” “The issue is, do we think that parents should have 24/7, essentially authoritarian control over their children from ages zero to 18? I think that’s dangerous,” Elizabeth Bartholet said in an interview with Harvard Magazine.“I think it’s always dangerous to put powerful people in charge of the powerless, and to give the powerful ones total authority.”Bartholet stated that there is “an essentially unregulated regime in the area of homeschooling,” with “very few requirements that parents do anything.”“[P]eople can homeschool who’ve never gone to school themselves, who don’t read or write themselves,” she said.Bartholet also stated that homeschooling can make it easier for parents to get away with abusing their children and/or indoctrinating them with white supremacy and misogyny:[I]t’s also important that children grow up exposed to community values, social values, democratic values, ideas about nondiscrimination and tolerance of other people’s viewpoints.I do not, of course, want to minimize the absolute horror of child abuse. It’s disgusting; it’s heartbreaking; and anyone who isn’t a sociopath agrees that it’s necessary to protect our children.Unfortunately, however, it’s also true that abuse is hardly something that can occur only in a child’s home. In fact, as Harvard grad and homeschooler Kerry McDonald pointed out in a letter to Harvard Magazine in response to its article, “many parents choose to homeschool their children to remove them from abuse at school, whether it’s widespread bullying by peers or, tragically, rampant abuse by teachers and school administrators themselves.”“Banning homeschooling, or adding burdensome regulations on homeschooling families, who in many instances are fleeing a system of education that they find harmful to their children, are unnecessary attacks on law-abiding families,” McDonald continues. What’s more, another of Bartholet’s suggestions — that the freedom to homeschool equals masses of children being painfully undereducated by illiterate parents — is as offensive as it is inaccurate. In fact, many, many children don’t simply receive an adequate education through homeschooling but an exemplary one that sets them up for greater success than any traditional school could have.
Purdue president: Smaller classes, face masks may be part of fall semester plan -Smaller classes and mandatory face masks are likely to be part ofPurdue University's plans to return students to campus this fall, Mitch Daniels, its president, told CNBC on Monday. "You can expect smaller numbers in every context," Daniels said on "Power Lunch." "I know we're looking for ways to reduce the size of classes, obviously keeping distance between people. Probably going to see masks as a requirement, at least for a long time here." Daniels, the former two-term Republican governor of Indiana, where Purdue is located, said the university also would likely forgo the large events "that enliven life" on campus such as "lectures and guest speakers and convocations of that kind." "All those things and many more, changes to our physical facilities, for instance, will be necessary for us to conclude that we are safe," Daniels said. "We won't move forward unless we believe that, but to get to that point, we have to get going now." Daniels wrote a letter to the university communitylast week, in which he stressed many of the proposals to return to in-person classes were "preliminary." They should be viewed "as examples, likely to be replaced by better ideas as we identify and validate them," he wrote. Daniels wrote that at least 80% of Purdue's population "is made up of young people, say, 35 and under. All data to date tell us that the COVID-19 virus, while it transmits rapidly in this age group, poses close to zero lethal threat to them." Young people do have lower rates of hospitalization and mortality rates from Covid-19, but they can get severely ill and die. Young people are also at risk of spreading the virus to people who are more vulnerable to serious infection, which for a university means faculty and staff, as well as students' parents and other family members, for example. Daniels told CNBC the most significant changes implemented by the university would be to protect those who are at higher risk of severe illness from the "very real danger that this virus poses to them."
Liberal Arts Degree Benefits [Liberal Arts Majors Comment] – For people wondering about the value of liberal arts degrees and what benefits they can bring, this post is a compilation of stories and comments from people who studied liberal arts and are glad to have done so. It’s my hope that this post will help people understand the value of liberal arts and, potentially, consider studying liberal arts themselves. Here is the query I put out on the journalism sites I belong to: There is a lot of cynicism about liberal arts majors today, but there’s plenty of liberal arts majors who have benefited greatly from their degree and who are much wiser for it. We’d like to hear from people who studied liberal arts at college and are glad to have done so. Personal stories welcome, the more detail the better. Below are the responses to that which discuss the benefits of a liberal arts education. I strongly recommend having a read through these.
COVID-19’s devastating impact on artists - The coronavirus pandemic is having a devastating impact on every section of the working population. According to a recently published survey by Americans for the Arts, fully 95 percent of arts workers in the US have lost income due to the current crisis—with 62 percent now out of work. Sixty-seven percent of those polled reported unanticipated expenses related to COVID-19 which, taken together with lost income, have resulted in an average loss per arts worker of $21,000 over the past three months. The arts workers surveyed included visual artists (51 percent), musicians (22 percent), theater and performance artists (17.5 percent), writers and media artists (15 percent each), as well as community-based artists (27 percent), and a variety of other artistic disciplines. A significant proportion (30.5 percent) work as teaching artists and/or teachers in elementary through graduate level education. The impact of the pandemic has laid bare the already precarious economic conditions in which most artists live, as well as the inequality that exists between a handful of top-tier artists with gallery connections and wealthy collectors versus the majority who cobble together a living from multiple “gigs.” The latter include working in arts-related jobs that may or may not involve their own creative work (i.e., working in a gallery, museum or other arts organization, etc.) or in non-arts jobs (servers in restaurants, Uber drivers, etc.). Before the pandemic, almost 40 percent of arts workers earned $35,000 or less a year, while another 37 percent made between $35,000 and $75,000. Given that more than half live in urban areas such as New York City or Los Angeles where the cost of living is extremely high, this means three-quarters of artists face significant financial challenges at the best of times. Since the shutdown in the US beginning in March, most art workers’ jobs have been suspended or terminated. Every museum and gallery from major institutions such as the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Louvre, and the National Gallery in London to thousands of small non-profit art spaces, theaters from Broadway to Lincoln Center, and hosts of prestigious art fairs and festivals like Art Basel and Cannes have either closed, postponed or cancelled their programs for the foreseeable future, many through the end of the 2020 season. This will continue to have a direct impact not only on the artists whose income and employment depends directly on these institutions for sales and commissions, but on a far larger number of related jobs, from museum staff to art-handlers, program designers to custodians for months if not longer.
Coronavirus Pushes Colleges to the Breaking Point, Forcing ‘Hard Choices’ About Education – WSJ - MacMurray College survived the Civil War, the Great Depression and two world wars, but not the coronavirus pandemic. The private liberal-arts school in central Illinois announced recently it will shut its doors for good in May, after 174 years. Like many small schools, it faced declining enrollment and financial shortfalls. To lure prospective students, it was using steep discounts to its $30,000 listed tuition. Then the global health crisis brought unexpected costs for shifting classes online and partially reimbursing room and board for students forced to finish out the spring term at home. The loss of a $3-million-plus bridge loan was the final straw. The pandemic “squeezed out the last rays of hope,” said President Beverly Rodgers. From schools already on the brink to the loftiest institutions, the pandemic is changing higher education in America with stunning speed. Schools sent students home when the coronavirus began to spread, and no one knows if they will be back on campus come fall. Some colleges say large lecture classes and shared living and dining spaces may not return. Athletics are suspended, and there is no sense of when, or if, packed stadiums, and their lucrative revenue streams, will return. Every source of funding is in doubt. Schools face tuition shortfalls because of unpredictable enrollment and market-driven endowment losses. Public institutions are digesting steep budget cuts, while families are questioning whether it’s worth paying for a private school if students will have to take classes online, from home. To brace for the pain, colleges and universities are cutting spending, freezing staff salaries and halting plans for campus building. For many schools, the pandemic is exposing flaws in their own business models. Even before the virus hit, many colleges and universities were running on razor-thin margins, with 30% of those rated by Moody’s Investors Service showing operating deficits. Published tuition rates had skyrocketed, but few students actually paid full price. That left schools fighting over a limited pool of wealthy prospects. Some schools had turned to international students to bolster revenue—a strategy that may now prove to be a liability.
Time For A Gap Year- Harvard Tells Students Prepare For Likelihood Of Online Only Fall Courses -- In what could be a precedent-setting move by arguably the world's most prestigious academic institution, Harvard University announced Monday that the extreme uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic shutdowns means the school is mulling the possibility of going to online only classes for the Fall semester. “We cannot be certain that it will be safe to resume all usual activities” by autumn, university provost Alan Garber wrote in a school-wide memo on Monday, reports the WSJ. “Consequently, we will need to prepare for a scenario in which much or all learning will be conducted remotely.” And in a statement sure to be met with collective eye-rolling among a student body prepared to drop some $70,000+ only to kick the year off with months or possibly more of sub-par 'remote learning' courses, school spokesman Jason Newton added in an email, “The primary message is that the University is moving forward with the fall semester, rather than delaying it.” Harvard University, file image via Flickr We doubt the students and families, many of which are likely going into debt to get that top-rate and in most cases out-of-state education, will see it that way (though in Harvard's case - an exception to the norm - its massive endowment and extremely selective acceptance rate means at least 70% of students receive typically massive financial aid, tuition breaks and scholarships via the school's ample means). Last week Harvard announced it has cancelled freshman pre-orientation programs set to take place in August, suggesting further that the Fall semester just won't happen like it normally would in physical classrooms and on campus.
Columbia University graduate workers strike against university’s COVID-19 response - Hundreds of graduate workers at Columbia University in New York City began a strike on April 24, demanding that the university sufficiently address the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on their lives, scholarship and research. Beginning on May 1, the strike will extend into a rent strike for residents of university-owned housing. The strikers are demanding emergency measures including, according to a graphic released by strike organizer Danielle Carr, cancellation of rent in university housing, extending funding and time to complete degree requirements by one year, the protection of international students, an emergency stipend and the ending of “university austerity to schools.” Columbia, located in the city with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world, moved to all-online instruction in mid-March. Most students left their dormitories by March 17. However, Columbia also owns non-dormitory housing, which many graduate students rent and for which rent has not been canceled. Graduate teaching assistants are still instructing and grading students remotely as part of their work. Strikers have stopped teaching, but will not submit grades for students as the spring semester nears its end. Beginning on May 1, the graduate students will also begin a rent strike. Housing is a major concern even under normal circumstances. Many stipends amount to little more than rent for a bedroom in a university-owned apartment, which for one student who spoke to New York magazine is $1,400 a month. Students who were relying on subletting their unit during the summer months are out of luck given the cancellation of summer programs. According to the Columbia Spectator, the university will give graduate students on nine-month appointments $3,000, although that is unlikely to be much better than the two months of rent relief it gave small commercial tenants. Many Columbia programs are in danger due to the financial impact of the pandemic, which is expected to decimate tuition, clinical income, government grants and private support. The university has already announced hiring and salary freezes.
Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators -Sen. Scott Jensen, R-Minn., a physician in Minnesota, was interviewed by "The Ingraham Angle" host Laura Ingraham on April 8 on Fox News and claimed hospitals get paid more if Medicare patients are listed as having COVID-19 and get three times as much money if they need a ventilator.The claim was published April 9 by The Spectator, a conservative publication. WorldNetDaily shared it April 10 and, according to Snopes, a related meme was shared on social media in mid-April.Jensen took it to his own Facebook page April 15, saying, in part: "How can anyone not believe that increasing the number of COVID-19 deaths may create an avenue for states to receive a larger portion of federal dollars. Already some states are complaining that they are not getting enough of the CARES Act dollars because they are having significantly more proportional COVID-19 deaths."Jensen said, "Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it's a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they're Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it's COVID-19 pneumonia, then it's $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000."Jensen clarified in the video that he doesn't think physicians are "gaming the system" so much as other "players," such as hospital administrators, who he said may pressure physicians to cite all diagnoses, including "probable" COVID-19, on discharge papers or death certificates to get the higher Medicare allocation allowed under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act. The coronavirus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients. There have been no public reports that hospitals are exaggerating COVID-19 numbers to receive higher Medicare payments. USA TODAY reached out to Marty Makary, a surgeon and professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, about the claim. Makary said in an email April 21 that "what Scott Jensen said sounds right to me." Makary did not elaborate, answer additional questions or respond to a request for an interview. USA TODAY reached out to the American Hospital Association and Federation of American Hospitals on April 22, but as of publication had not received a response. Snopes investigated the claim, finding it's plausible Medicare pays in the range Jensen mentions but doesn't have a "one-size-fits-all" payment to hospitals for COVID-19 patients.
Scientists Find More Evidence Novel Coronavirus Can Travel On Air Pollution Particles - Scientists are scrambling to find explanations for why the coronavirus outbreak in the Italian north was so much more pervasive and deadly than outbreaks in other parts of Europe, and even other parts of Italy. Some have proposed that Italy's elderly population might have something to do with it - though Japan's demographics are similar, and the outbreak in that country has been far less deadly. Now, a team of researchers who have been studying air pollution levels in Italy's Bergamo Province have found more evidence that the virus can travel on air pollution particles, the Guardian reports, which might offer some insight into the issue. Leonardo Setti at the University of Bologna in Italy, who led the work, said it was important to investigate if the virus could be carried more widely by air pollution."I am a scientist and I am worried when I don’t know,” he said. “If we know, we can find a solution. But if we don’t know, we can only suffer the consequences."To be sure, while the scientists found evidence of viral genetic material on air particles, the research offers no insight on whether these particles can actually transmit the virus in a way that would allow it to infect other humans.Here's more from the Guardian:The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory.[…]The potential role of air pollution particles is linked to the broader question of how the coronavirus is transmitted. Large virus-laden droplets from infected people’s coughs and sneezes fall to the ground within a metre or two. But much smaller droplets, less than 5 microns in diameter, can remain in the air for minutes to hours and travel further.Experts are not sure whether these tiny airborne droplets can cause coronavirus infections, though they know the 2003 Sars coronavirus was spread in the air and that the new virus can remain viable for hours in tiny droplets.But researchers say the importance of potential airborne transmission, and the possible boosting role of pollution particles, mean it must not be ruled out without evidence. Setti isn't the first researcher to find evidence that air pollution particles could enable the virus to travel further by essentially hitching a ride on the particles. According to the Guardian, two other research projects have arrived at similar findings.
Coronavirus: Eyes could be contagious for weeks, study finds -- The coronavirus can linger in patients’ eyes for several weeks and could act as a way of spreading the Covid-19 disease, according new study from Italy. Scientists at Italy’s National Institute for Infectious Diseases hospital in Rome studied the symptoms of an unnamed 65-year-old woman who developed the virus after travelling from the Chinese city of from Wuhan. When the woman developed conjunctivitis – an eye infection causing redness and itchiness – doctors decided to take regular swabs from her eye. They discovered the virus remained present in “ocular samples” up to 21 days after she was admitted to hospital. The team said the findings, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, indicated that eye fluids from coronavirus patients “may be a potential source of infection”. The Italian experts said their research suggested that the eye could not only be an entryway for the virus, but also a source of contagion. The study authors said: “These findings highlight the importance of control measures, such as avoiding touching the nose, mouth, and eyes and frequent hand washing.” Though it’s rarely reported in confirmed Covid-19 cases, doctors have reported some patients hospitalised with the virus suffered from conjunctivitis among their other symptoms. Some experts have recommended people who wear contact lenses to switch to glasses to reduce any risk of transmitting the virus through the eyes.
The biochemistry of how COVID-19 attacks the body: a synopsis of the medical studies - I’ve been doing some reading over the past several weeks, trying to understand how the COVID-19 virus attacks the human body. Below are quotes I found most noteworthy or interesting from these articles.In essence, they indicate that biochemically the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, mainly binds to the ACE-2 receptor of cell surfaces to gain entrance. These are most prevalent in nasal and mucus cells, alveoli (oxygen-exchanging cells in the longs), and some cells lining the small intestine, which explains why the disease may start as abdominal discomfort in many patients. There are some conditions, especially high blood pressure and diabetes - or, possibly, medications for those conditions - which cause these ACE-2 receptors to be more expressed. Conversely, nicotine may cause a decline in the expression of ACE-2 receptors, acting to protect against the disease. But if smokers do get the disease and are admitted to the hospital, the cessation of nicotine ingestion may lead to a rebound in those receptors, worsening the condition.The virus also appears to bind to an iron ion in hemoglobin in red blood cells, causing blood clots and also preventing those cells from carrying oxygen to the rest of the body. This may explain the horribly low blood oxygen levels seen in many patients; and also why some otherwise asymptomatic patients suffer heart attacks or strokes. Even more alarming, like HIV the coronavirus appears to attack the immune system itself, binding to a different receptor, called CD147, on the T-cell leukocytes that are sent to attack it, disabling them and causing the immune system to be suppressed. It seems to be when the immune system is overwhelmed in this way (in about 10 days on average) that the disease suddenly takes a deadly turn. Here are the synopses:
- Science Daily: The virus gains interest to cells by means of the ACE-2 receptor on the cell surface, that typically is involved in blood glucose regulation:“These investigators used the knowledge they gleaned from multiple SARS-CoV strains -- isolated from different hosts in different years -- and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptors from different animal species to model predictions for the novel Wuhan coronavirus. [NOTE: ACE2 serves normally as a regulator for heart function.]
- BioQuick News: How SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Gets into Respiratory Tissue -- And How It May Exploit One of Our Anti-Viral Defenses; Interferon Boosts ACE2, Which Is Cell Surface Receptor That COVID-19 Binds To: “ Recent research had found that SARS-CoV-2--like the closely related SARS-CoV that caused the SARS pandemic--uses a receptor called ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) to gain entry into human cells, aided by an enzyme called TMPRSS2 (transmembrane serine protease 2). That led Dr. Ordovas-Montanes and Dr. Shalek and colleagues to ask a simple question: which cells in respiratory and intestinal tissue express both ACE2 and TMPRSS2? “ .... They found that only a tiny percentage of human respiratory and intestinal cells, often well below 10 percent, make both ACE2 and TMPRSS2. Those cells fall in three types: goblet cells in the nose that secrete mucus; lung cells known as type II pneumocytes that help maintain the alveoli (the sacs where oxygen is taken in); and one type of so-called enterocytes that line the small intestine and are involved in nutrient absorption.
- Nature: Infection proceeds through as many as three phases: (1) an asymptomatic phase; if the body does not fight off the virus quickly enough, it proceeds to (2) a mildly symptomatic phase. If after about 10 days or so the body has still not fought off the virus, it proceeds to the devastating phase, including the oxygen transfer cells in the lungs, and also involving the blood cells themselves:
- Science Magazine: also addresses the stages by which the disease progresses: “ As the virus multiplies, an infected person may shed copious amounts of it, especially during the first week or so. Symptoms may be absent at this point. Or the virus’ new victim may develop a fever, dry cough, sore throat, loss of smell and taste, or head and body aches.“If the immune system doesn’t beat back SARS-CoV-2 during this initial phase, the virus then marches down the windpipe to attack the lungs, where it can turn deadly. The thinner, distant branches of the lung’s respiratory tree end in tiny air sacs called alveoli, each lined by a single layer of cells that are also rich in ACE2 receptors.
- {much more}
Editorial: Nicotine and SARS-CoV-2: COVID-19 may be a disease of the nicotinic cholinergic system - Smoking is known to increase the risk for respiratory infection susceptibility and severity [30,31]. Considering that COVID-19 was declared by the World Health Organization as a pandemic, a substantial disease burden would be expected among the estimated 1.1 billion smokers, especially in countries with high smoking prevalence. Therefore, there were understandable concerns about this population subgroup [32]. Additionally, smoking-related disease conditions such as cardiovascular disease and COPD are also established risk factors for adverse outcomes in COVID-19 [33]. China was the first country to be affected by the pandemic and has a high smoking prevalence. In 2018, the population smoking prevalence was 26.6 % with a much higher prevalence in men (50.5 %) than in women (2.1 %) [34]. Therefore, a high smoking prevalence among patients with COVID-19 would be expected, even if smoking did not adversely affect disease susceptibility and severity. On 23 March, a preliminary analysis by some members of our group examined data from 5 case series of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from China, and calculated a smoking prevalence of 10.2 % (95 % CI: 8.7–11.8 %) while the estimated expected prevalence was 31.3 % (95 % CI: 8.7–11.8 %) [35]. The analysis was further expanded on 3 April by examining 13 Chinese studies and 5960 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with a pooled smoking prevalence of 6.5 % (95 % CI: 4.9–8.2 %) [36]. On that date, we presented for the first time a hypothesis about the potential beneficial effects of nicotine, which was subsequently expanded [37]. While there were limitations in the study analysis, mainly due to the inability to adjust for confounding factors, the findings of low smoking prevalence among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in China were consistent across all studies and in agreement with case series from USA [38,39]. The original hypothesis was based on the anti-inflammatory properties of nicotine through the cholinergic anti-inflammatory system, acknowledging that the disease appeared to involve a dysregulation of the immune response to viral invasion.Nicotine is a cholinergic agonist. Therefore, it is an important inhibitor of pro-inflammatory cytokines acting through the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway via α7-nAChRs. Nicotine inhibits TNF, IL-1, IL-6 and HMGB1 while it does not inhibit anti-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-10 (Li et al., 2011; [28]). in vivo animal models found nicotine to be protective against lipopolysaccharide-induced ARDS by reducing leukocyte infiltration and pro-inflammatory mediators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (Ni et al., 2011; Mabley et al., 2011). Such effects are relevant to COVID-19 since cytokine storm appears to be the hallmark in severe cases [40,41].
'How is this possible?' Researchers grapple with Covid-19's mysterious mechanism Respiratory physician Dr David Darley says something peculiar happens to a small group of Covid-19 patients on day seven of their symptoms. “Up until the end of that first week, they’re stable,” says Darley, a doctor with Sydney’s St Vincent’s Hospital. “And then suddenly, they have this hyper-inflammatory response. The proteins involved in that inflammation start circulating in the body at high levels.” In these patients, the lungs begin to struggle. Blood pressure lowers. Other organs, including the kidneys, may begin to shut down. Blood clots form throughout the body. The brain and intestines may also be affected. Some suffer changes to their personality, suggesting brain damage. “I think what is evolving is a very specific set of stages of disease and for some reason, not everyone goes through all of the stages,” Darley says. “Some go through to the most severe stage and they require breathing support and oxygen. These patients who are severe tend to be older, they are more likely to be men, and also have other medical problems like diabetes, high blood pressure or cardiovascular disease.” But there is no way of knowing which patients will be affected by the most severe symptoms. Clinicians like Darley hope that a disease biomarker – a unique characteristic in the blood, body fluids, or tissues – will eventually be discovered for each stage. “It would help clinicians predict what stage patients are at and maybe even if they will progress to the next stage of disease,” he said. “It could help us predict who needs to be more closely observed in hospitals and would mean we have all the systems ready to go if they worsen. And it would give us more confidence to have them discharged to home if a biomarker says they are low risk for developing severe illness.”
Link identified between dietary selenium and outcome of Covid-19 disease --An international team of researchers, led by Professor Margaret Rayman at the University of Surrey, has identified a link between the Covid-19 cure rate and regional selenium status in China. Publishing their findings in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, researchers using data (up to 18 February), investigated possible links between selenium levels in the body and cure or death rates of those with the Covid-19 virus in China.Selenium is an essential trace element obtained from the diet (i.e. fish, meat and cereals) which has been found to affect the severity of a number of viral diseases in animals and humans. For example selenium status in those with HIV has been shown to be an important factor in the progression of the virus to AIDs and death from the condition. China is known to have populations that have both the lowest and highest selenium status in the world, due to geographical differences in the soil which affects how much of the trace element gets into the food chain. Margaret Rayman, Professor of Nutritional Medicine at the University of Surrey, said; “Given the history of viral infections associated with selenium deficiency, we wondered whether the appearance of Covid-19 in China could possibly be linked to the belt of selenium deficiency that runs from the north-east to the south-west of the country.”Examining data from provinces and municipalities with more than 200 cases and cities with more than 40 cases, researchers found that areas with high levels of selenium were more likely to recover from the virus. For example, in the city of Enshi in Hubei Province, which has the highest selenium intake in China, the cure rate (percentage of Covid-19 patients declared ‘cured’) was almost three-times higher than the average for all the other cities in Hubei Province. By contrast, in Heilongjiang Province, where selenium intake is among the lowest in the world, the death rate from Covid-19 was almost five-times as high as the average of all the other provinces outside of Hubei. Most convincingly, the researchers found that the Covid-19 cure rate was significantly associated with selenium status, as measured by the amount of selenium in hair, in 17 cities outside of Hubei.
What if immunity to covid-19 doesn’t last? - MIT Technology Review - Starting in the fall of 2016 and continuing into 2018, researchers at Columbia University in Manhattan began collecting nasal swabs from 191 children, teachers, and emergency workers, asking them to record when they sneezed or had sore throats. The point was to create a map of common respiratory viruses and their symptoms, and how long people who recovered stayed immune to each one. The research included four coronaviruses, HKU1, NL63, OC42, and C229E, which circulate widely every year but don’t get much attention because they only cause common colds. But now that a new coronavirus in the same broad family, SARS-CoV-2, has the world on lockdown, information about the mild viruses is among our clues to how the pandemic might unfold. What the Columbia researchers now describe in a preliminary report is cause for concern. They found that people frequently got reinfected with the same coronavirus, even in the same year, and sometimes more than once. Over a year and a half, a dozen of the volunteers tested positive two or three times for the same virus, in one case with just four weeks between positive results. That’s a stark difference from the pattern with infections like measles or chicken pox, where people who recover can expect to be immune for life. For the coronaviruses “immunity seems to wane quickly,” says Jeffrey Shaman, who carried out the research with Marta Galanti, a postdoctoral researcher. Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia University Jeffrey Shaman leads the Virome of Manhattan study at Columbia University, which found people are frequently re-infected by the same cold-causing germs. The research shows immunity to some coronaviruses is short lived. MS TECH | AP PHOTO/MARY ALTAFFER Whether covid-19 will follow the same pattern is unknown, but the Columbia results suggest one way that much of the public discussion about the pandemic could be misleading. There is talk of getting “past the peak” and “immunity passports” for those who’ve recovered. At the same time, some hope the infection is more widespread than generally known, and that only a tolerable death total stands between us and high enough levels of population immunity for the virus to stop spreading. All that presumes immunity is long-lived, but what if it is fleeting instead?
April 26 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Fauci Expects Testing to Double - From The Hill: Fauci confident US will double coronavirus testing capacity over next several weeks Fauci said in a webcast hosted by the National Academy of Sciences that that the U.S. is currently averaging between 1.5 million and 2 million tests per week."We probably should get up to twice that as we get into the next several weeks, and I think we will," Fauci said. "Testing is an important part of what we’re doing, but it is not the only part." … "You need enough tests so when you’re doing what we’re trying to do right now, which is trying to ease our way back, that you can very easily identify, test, contact trace and get those who are infected out of society so they don’t infect others," he said, adding that positive test results should account for less than 10 percent of tests administered. Based on these comments, the US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day in several weeks - and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace. There were 256,444 test results reported over the last 24 hours. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push the percentage positive below 5%, although Dr. Fauci said below 10% (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).
Tom Hanks’ Blood Will be Used To Develop COVID-19 Vaccine -- Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson's blood will be used by medical researchers who are developing a vaccine for coronavirus after they won their battle with the illness. The married couple were among the first high-profile individuals to contract COVID-19 and they fell ill while in Australia where Tom Hanks was making his new movie, Baz Luhrmann's upcoming Elvis Presley biopic.After going public with their diagnosis and keeping fans updated on their condition whilst in isolation Down Under, they made a full recovery and were allowed to return to their home in Los Angeles. Upon arriving back in the US, Hanks, 63, and Wilson, 63, enrolled in a medical study to determine if their antibodies would be useful for scientists working on developing a vaccine and now the Saving Private Ryan star has revealed that they have been approved to donate blood because they do "carry the antibodies". "We have not only been approached; we have said, do you want our blood? Can we give plasma? And, in fact, we will be giving it now to the places that hope to work on what I would like to call the Hank-ccine." Hanks previously revealed that his producer-and-actress wife suffered much worse coronavirus symptoms than he did and he was concerned for her health. He said: "Rita went through a tougher time than I did. She had a much-higher fever and she had some other symptoms. She lost her sense of taste and smell. She got absolutely no joy from food for a better part of three weeks. She was so nauseous, she had to crawl on the floor from the bed to the facilities. It lasted a while."
It will probably take longer than 12 to 18 months to get a vaccine. - I know better than to think that life will return to normal once my state’s shelter-in-place order is lifted. I have been trying, instead, to think about “when life will return to normal” as being connected to a different milestone—the creation of a vaccine, which will stop us from getting sick in the first place. Maybe you have been thinking about this too. If you have, the timeline you are probably working with is “12 to 18 months,” maybe edging into two years. “We are talking at least a year,” Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said in March. “It will take at least a year to a year in a half to have a vaccine we can use,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said, also in March. “The reality is, it will take over a year in my expectation to really find a new vaccine,” a pharma CEO told the press back in January. That timeline feels … long. And, though we might be able to get back to some kind of normalcy with the help of testing and therapies, it’s actually on the shorter side of when we will get a vaccine. “Everybody would love to say yes, we can achieve an 18-month vaccine turnaround—but it’s a goal,” says Maria Elena Bottazzi, a virologist at Baylor who is working on a couple possible vaccines against COVID-19. “If you look historically, we’ve never been able to develop a vaccine with that timeline.” Ebola’s vaccine, for example, tookfive years to develop, following the 2014 outbreak; a more typical timeline is 10 years. “We’re trying to break a record here—maybe it’s not going to be four or five [years], maybe it’s three, maybe it’s two, maybe indeed it’s 18 months,” Bottazzi says.
Coronavirus updates: WHO warns of other vaccine shortages, poll finds outsized impact in NJ - The World Health Organization warned that children across the world will dieas the coronavirus pandemic forces some countries to temporarily halt vaccinations for other deadly diseases like polio. At least 21 countries are reporting vaccine shortages as a result of travel restrictions meant to curb the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press conference at the agency's Geneva headquarters. "The tragic reality is children will die as a result." Just as immunization has been postponed in some countries, heath-care services for other diseases, like malaria, have been disrupted, Tedros said, noting that the number of malaria cases in Sub-Saharan Africa could double. New Jersey residents have felt the effects of the coronavirus more acutely than the rest of the country, a new poll found. About 7 in 10 respondents in the state, or 71%, said the pandemic has had a "major impact" on their lives, according to the Monmouth University poll. Nationally, 62% of people said the same, a previous Monmouth survey found. In the Garden State, 61% of adults said they know someone infected by the virus, compared with only 26% nationally. At the same time, 29% of people of color in New Jersey said they or a family member got the coronavirus, versus 20% of white people. New Jersey has more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases, second among states only to its neighbor New York. The Monmouth University poll, taken from April 16 to 19, surveyed 704 New Jersey adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.Health experts and asset markets are watching closely as segments of the U.S. reopen their economies. Across the Atlantic, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is back at work after recovering from the virus, delivering a sober address about the nation's progress in fighting the Covid-19 outbreak. This is CNBC's live blog covering all the latest news on the coronavirus outbreak. All times below are in Eastern time. This blog will be updated throughout the day as the news breaks.
- Global cases: More than 3 million
- Global deaths: At least 208,131
- US cases: More than 972,900
- US deaths: At least 55,118
WHO says US faces 'difficult situation' as the coronavirus epidemic differ by state - The U.S. faces a "very difficult situation" in grappling with an epidemic that varies by state and is evolving at different rates across the vast country, a top World Health Organization official said Monday."I think that the United States has been dealing for a while with a complex situation," added Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's emergencies program. "It's a very large country, 50 states, each one with different populations, with different levels of urbanization and the epidemic at different levels of development and evolution in each of those."Ryan commended the U.S. for rolling out data-driven federal guidelines such as President Donald Trump's "Opening Up America Again" plan, which lays out three "phases" to guide states on how and when to reopen, based on factors such as new daily infections and hospital capacity. "The federal government and the system of governors are working together to move America and its people through this very difficult situation with public health and other scientific leaders adding and inputting their advice into the system," Ryan said. "We believe that the overarching federal plan seems to be very much based on science."Last week, Trump asked at a nationally televised White House press briefing whether injecting disinfectants into the body could be a Covid-19 treatment worthy of research. His comments drew the ire of toxicologists and public health specialists who called the comments reckless.And earlier this month, Trump announced the U.S. will suspend funding to the WHO while it reviews the agency's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, adding that the international health agency made mistakes that "caused so much death." Ryan's remarks come as states across the U.S. announce plans to reopen parts of the economy, some as soon as this week. Last week, Vice President Mike Pence said 16 states had unveiled "formal reopening plans." Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp began to reopen parts of the economy on Friday, starting with retail locations such as gyms, barber shops, fitness centers and bowling alleys. President Donald Trump said last week that he "totally disagrees" with the decision to reopen those businesses first.
Collecting and reporting ethnicity stats on COVID-19 matters for the health of everyone -The Equitable Data Collection and Disclosure on COVID-19 Act, which requires the federal government to include race and ethnicity among demographic data collected and released about COVID-19 is not partisan. It is not biased. And it is not relevant only to the slice of American citizenry with brown and black skin who are dying disproportionately in this country from the virus. It matters to the health and welfare of everyone. Importantly — as we look to Michigan, where 14 percent of the population is black yet 33 percent of those with COVID-19 are black; to Louisiana, where 32 percent of the population is black yet 70 of the dead are black; to the city of Boston, where 25 percent of the population is black yet 40 percent of those infected are black — we see a horrifying but compelling pattern that, if investigated, could help us eventually stop the spread of the virus. Here’s why: While COVID-19 does not see color, it does see — and viciously attacks — people with underlying health conditions: lung, heart, and kidney disease, as well as cancer, diabetes and other chronic illnesses. Minority and underserved communities suffer and die in far higher numbers from these diseases. They always have. While the COVID-19 data on minorities are alarming, they are not shocking. But what we already know offers us a way forward. Unlike with other segments of the population, we can more easily predict the likelihood of COVID-19 hotspots in these communities — and more effectively deploy rapid testing and contact tracing in order to quickly gain data-driven insights that can turn the tide in these neighborhoods and be applied to neighborhoods nationwide. In other words, a mandate to post daily updates on the CDC website showing the data disaggregated by race, ethnicity, sex, age, socioeconomic status, disability status, county, and other demographic information is not meant to divide us for the benefit of a few. It is meant to inform us for the benefit of all.
Coronavirus Is Likely to Generate Telltale Signs, Fauci Says - Most people who’ve had the coronavirus probably develop markers of the infection, according to Anthony Fauci, the scientist who’s leading the U.S. response to the pandemic.Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said it would be “extremely unusual” if patients did not develop antibodies, which often bestow immunity on people who’ve been infected with a virus. Other experts have cast doubt on whether this happens in everyone with the new coronavirus, fueling concerns about the insidious nature of the illness.“I’d be careful about saying people who get infected don’t have any antibodies,” Fauci said in an interview. “It would be almost unprecedented.”The dependable appearance of antibodies following Covid-19 infections would be highly reassuring as governments move to restart economies from lockdowns. Tests for them can show who’s been infected by the pathogen and how far it’s spread -- and, potentially, how many people have developed immunity that could allow them to work in virus-exposed jobs with less risk of illness.Scientists from China said in April that they couldn’t find signs of protective antibodies in about 6% of the 175 recovered patients they tested. Officials at the World Health Organization have said the nature of any immune response remains unclear. The same study that found patients with no antibodies found others with significant responses. “Right now the information is mixed,” Maria Van Kerkhove, Covid-19 technical lead at the WHO, said at a press briefing in April. “We need much more information from recovered patients.”
Consumer Beware: Coronavirus Antibody Tests Are Still A Work In Progress - After hearing for months about serious access issues involving tests that diagnose COVID-19 based on swabs from the nose or throat, Americans are being inundated with reports about promising new tests that look for signs of infection in the blood. There are high hopes for these antibody tests, which detect proteins that form in blood as part of the body’s immune response to an invading virus. Communities across the U.S. have been rolling out the results of serological surveys that examine blood samples from people who haven’t been diagnosed with COVID-19 to see if they were, in fact, previously infected. The thinking is, if there are blood markers that can detect when people have been infected, such tests should be able to tell us how widely the novel coronavirus has spread. And equally optimistic: those same antibodies could convey immunity to the disease, signaling someone is safe from reinfection and able to get back to work. Such high hopes, however, are running smack into the roadblocks of reality. Infectious disease experts are raising pointed questions about the reliability of the early tests and the studies that hinge on their results. And they warn that state and local governments — as well as individuals — should be wary of shaping policy or changing behavior based on any single report. In the sharpest caution to date, officials with the World Health Organization on Saturday warned against plans for proposed “immunity passports,” which would allow people who have recovered from the coronavirus to resume unrestricted travel and work. “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” the agency wrote in a scientific brief. Even before the WHO weighed in, other experts were urging restraint in interpreting early results of antibody screening. In the past few weeks, more than 180 academic centers, hospitals and private manufacturers have notified the federal Food and Drug Administration that they intend to create serology tests for COVID-19, spokesperson Stephanie Caccomo said in an email. They’ve been able to jump into the fray because the FDA in March relaxed regulations for developing tests as part of its emergency response to the pandemic. But the FDA has not reviewed the vast majority of tests on the market, and their validity, particularly point-of-care blood tests that promise rapid results within minutes, isn’t clear, said Dr. Michael Busch, director of the Vitalant Research Institute and a professor of laboratory medicine at the University of California-San Francisco. “Some of them have sensitivities that are quite poor,” he said. “You may even miss some infected people completely.” Other tests may flag people as positive for COVID-19 when they’re not infected. That’s especially true in regions of the country with little spread of the novel virus. If the prevalence of a disease is low, less than 5%, even an accurate test would yield a high number of false positive results because of the way such screening tools operate.
Heartburn drug trial shows 'reasonable confidence' it could help treat coronavirus, hospital CEO - Northwell Health CEO Michael Dowling said that scientists working on a drug trial for famotidine, a common heartburn medication, have "a reasonable confidence" that the drug may make a difference in the treatment of Covid-19 patients. "It's one of many trials we're doing, but we believe in the next two weeks or so we'll have some potential results to be able to tell whether it's working or not," Dowling told CNBC on Tuesday. He said it's too early to say definitively whether or not it works, but "our scientists have a reasonable confidence in this trial that it may make a difference." Dowling said there are approximately 200 patients currently enrolled in the trial, which uses nine times the amount of famotidine intravenously that someone would usually take to treat heartburn, as first reported by Science Magazine. Famotidine is a common ingredient found in Pepcid, a heartburn medication. The study, which is underway at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, the research arm of New York-based health system Northwell Health, was kept under wraps to ensure enough supply for the trial. Health officials are concerned that there could be a rush on the medication in stores, preventing people with heartburn or stomach ulcers to access the drug. "It's very difficult to get at the moment, I believe Amazon is sold out," Dowling said. "Because once the word gets out that this is something that could help, obviously there was a run on the supply, but we do have enough to do the trial and do it successfully." The trial is is one of six to seven underway at the hospital, Dowling said. Northwell is also studying whether Regeneron's sarilumab, a drug for arthritis, and Gilead Sciences's remdesivir could also help treat coronavirus patients. There are currently no proven therapeutics or vaccines for Covid-19.
U.S. emergency approval broadens use of Gilead's COVID-19 drug remdesivir - (Reuters) - Gilead Science Inc’s antiviral drug remdesivir was granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for COVID-19 on Friday, clearing the way for broader use of the drug in more hospitals around the United States. During a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House with President Donald Trump, Gilead Chief Executive Daniel O’Day called the move an important first step and said the company was donating 1.5 million vials of the drug to help patients. The donation is expected to be enough for at least 140,000 patients, depending on the number of days they need to be treated. Gilead said on Wednesday the drug, which is given by intravenous infusion, had helped improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, and provided data suggesting it worked better when given earlier in the course of infection. With many countries reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, interest in Gilead’s drug has been high because there are currently no approved treatments or preventive vaccines for COVID-19. Doctors are desperate for anything that might alter the course of the disease that attacks the lungs and can shut down other organs in extremely severe cases.
Twitter Suspends Account Of Biotech Company Testing UV Light To Treat Coronavirus -Twitter has suspended the account of a Colorado biotech company which is working with Cedars-Sinai to test and develop a potential coronavirus treatment using UV light inserted into the lungs - the same week as Homeland Security's head of Science and Technology, Bill Bryan, suggested that UV light could have a significant affect on viruses such as COVID-19.UPDATE: @Twitter just suspended the account of the publicly traded biotech company AYTU BioScience that created a novel COVID-19 treatment approach utilizing UV light in the lungs that @realDonaldTrump was talking about. This is ridiculous! https://t.co/4zwadZr9Yn pic.twitter.com/df9Qkbfmuk— Mike Coudrey (@MichaelCoudrey) April 26, 2020 The suspension of Aytu BioScience's account comes shortly after YouTube removed a video demonstrating the technology (which can be seen below on Vimeo).
Televangelist Pat Robertson Blames COVID-19 On Abortions And Same Sex Marriage --The controversial televangelist Pat Robertson recently told his viewers that same-sex marriage was to blame for the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. During an episode of his show “The 700 Club,” Robertson repeatedly suggested that coronavirus pandemic is a punishment from God. Robertson said that humanity is being punished for our “wicked ways” and said that the virus will not go away until people repent and change the ways that they are living. Abortion and same-sex marriage appeared to be among the top concerns of the televangelist and his viewers.Things got interesting when a viewer called into the show and asked if people in same-sex marriages, those who get abortions and those who have a problem with Israel are preventing God from healing the world.“How can God heal our land and forgive the sins when abortion and same-sex marriage are laws and many people are anti-Israel. Doesn’t this prevent his healing and forgiveness?” the caller asked.Robertson agreed with the caller, and used her comments to launch into a tirade about how God will not heal people because they have done “terrible things” and have broken a “covenant with God.”“You know, I think you put your finger on something very important. We are not turning when we have done terrible things. We have broken the covenant that God made with mankind. We have violated his covenant. We have taken the life of the innocent, slaughtered them by the tens of millions. Children made in the image of God … I mean, we’ve allowed this terrible plague to spread throughout our society,” he said. Robertson’s comments sparked outrage among liberal activists and advocates for the communities mentioned in his broadcast. However, Robertson is no stranger to controversy, in fact, he has built much of his business on it, and these types of comments are fairly common on his show.
A disturbing new study suggests Sean Hannity’s show helped spread the coronavirus -- Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, media critics have warned that the decision from leading Fox News hosts to downplay the outbreak could cost lives. A new study provides statistical evidence that, in the case of Sean Hannity, that’s exactly what happened.The paper — from economists Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth, and David Yanagizawa-Drott — focused on Fox news programming in February and early March.At the time, Hannity’s show was downplaying or ignoring the virus, while fellow Fox host Tucker Carlson was warning viewers about the disease’s risks.Using both a poll of Fox News viewers over age 55 and publicly available data on television-watching patterns, they calculate that Fox viewers who watched Hannity rather than Carlson were less likely to adhere to social distancing rules, and that areas where more people watched Hannity relative to Carlson had higher local rates of infection and death. “Greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight leads to a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths,” they write. “A one-standard deviation increase in relative viewership of Hannity relative to Carlson is associated with approximately 30 percent more COVID-19 cases on March 14, and 21 percent more COVID-19 deaths on March 28.” “This really looks like a causal effect of misinformation [leading] to deaths.” The paper is technically quite complex, but it (more or less) breaks down into three parts. First, the authors provide evidence that there was a difference in how Hannity and Carlson covered the coronavirus outbreak in February and early March. Second, they present data from their poll showing that Hannity viewers were less likely to follow social distancing rules than Carlson viewers. Third, they used data on television viewership and the coronavirus to show that higher rates of Hannity viewership relative to Carlson viewership were correlated with higher rates of local infection and death. It seems pretty clear, from the first section, that Carlson took this way more seriously than Hannity. On February 25, Carlson warned that the virus could kill as many as a million Americans. On February 27, Hannity said it was less dangerous than car crashes or the common flu.
A spike in New Yorkers ingesting household cleaners following Trump’s controversial coronavirus comments - An unusually high number of New Yorkers contacted city health authorities over fears that they had ingested bleach or other household cleaners in the 18 hours that followed President Trump’s bogus claim that injecting such products could cure coronavirus, the Daily News has learned. The Poison Control Center, a subagency of the city’s Health Department, managed a total of 30 cases of possible exposure to disinfectants between 9 p.m. Thursday and 3 p.m. Friday, a spokesman said. None of the people who reached out died or required hospitalization, the spokesman said. But compared to last year, the number of cases was worthy of a double-take. According to data obtained by The News, the Poison Control Center only handled 13 similar cases in the same 18-hour period last year. Moreover, out of the cases reported between Thursday and Friday, nine were specifically about possible exposure to Lysol. Ten were in regard to bleach and 11 about household cleaners in general, the spokesman said.
Two men in Georgia drank disinfectants in efforts to prevent COVID-19, officials say - Officials say two men in Georgia who have suffered from psychiatric problems ingested household chemicals in an effort to protect themselves against COVID-19, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Gaylord Lopez, director of the Georgia Poison Center, told the newspaper that a man was hospitalized on Saturday after he claimed to have ingested 16 ounces of bleach in a bid “to prevent COVID.” “He said that he took 16 ounces,” Lopez said. “I don’t know very many patients who will take 16 ounces, but then again, it is a psych history patient.” Lopez said the man was later transported to a psychiatric ward and has since been released. The director said another man had also been hospitalized after drinking Pine-sol mixed with mouthwash, beer and pain medication. It’s unclear, Lopez said, whether the two men had tried ingesting the cleaners after listening to remarks President Trump made about disinfectants at a press conference last week. “We don’t ask the question of, was it because they watched a TV show?” he told the paper. “We are just told, ‘What do we do for these patients?’ And it’s our job to try to give them treatment advice to make sure these patients make it.” During a press briefing last week, Trump discussed the possibility of injecting disinfectants as a potential coronavirus treatment.
Revealed: leader of group peddling bleach as coronavirus ‘cure’ wrote to Trump last week - The leader of the most prominent group in the US peddling potentially lethal industrial bleach as a “miracle cure” for coronavirus wrote to Donald Trump at the White House last week. In his letter, Mark Grenon told Trump that chlorine dioxide – a powerful bleach used in industrial processes such as textile manufacturing that can have fatal side-effects when drunk – is “a wonderful detox that can kill 99% of the pathogens in the body”. He added that it “can rid the body of Covid-19”.A few days after Grenon dispatched his letter, Trump went on national TV at his daily coronavirus briefing at the White House on Thursday and promoted the idea that disinfectant could be used as a treatment for the virus. To theastonishment of medical experts, the US president said that disinfectant “knocks it out in a minute. One minute!”He went on to say: “Is there a way we can do something, by an injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that.”Trump did not specify where the idea of using disinfectant as a possible remedy for Covid-19 came from, and the source for his notion remains obscure. But the Guardian has learned that peddlers of chlorine dioxide – industrial bleach – have been making direct approaches to the White House in recent days.Grenon styles himself as “archbishop” of Genesis II – a Florida-based outfit that claims to be a church but which in fact is the largest producer and distributor of chlorine dioxide bleach as a “miracle cure” in the US. He brands the chemical asMMS, “miracle mineral solution”, and claims fraudulently that it can cure 99% of all illnesses including cancer, malaria, HIV/Aids as well as autism.Since the start of the pandemic, Genesis II has been marketing MMS as a cure to coronavirus. It advises users, including children, to mix t hree to six drops of bleach in water and drink it.
North Carolina Pug Tests Positive for Coronavirus, Could Be First Infected Dog in U.S. - A family pug in North Carolina may be the first dog in the U.S. to test positive for the novel coronavirus, according to Duke University researchers, as CNN reported.The dog belongs to the McLean family in Chapel Hill, NC, who participated in the Duke University study looking at possible treatments for COVID-19. The virus also infected three of the family members: Dr. Heather McLean, Dr. Samuel McLean and their son Ben McLean. Their daughter, Sydney McLean, never showed signs of infection. The family members submit nasal swabs and blood samples weekly.The researchers also collect samples from the family pets. Of the family pets tested, Winston, who is 2, was the only one to test positive. Both Otis, 13, the older of the McLeans's two pugs, and Mr. Nibs, a 12-year-old tabby cat, tested negative. The family's lizard was not tested, according to The New York Times."To our knowledge, this is the first instance in which the virus has been detected in a dog," said Dr. Chris Woods, the principal investigator on Duke's Molecular and Epidemiological Study of Suspected Infection study, in a statement, as TIME reported. "Little additional information is known at this time as we work to learn more about the exposure."The family said the dog's symptoms lasted only a few days and were mild. The dog was sluggish, sneezing and breathing heavily. Most telling of all, they said, he didn't finish breakfast one morning, as The New York Times reported.
CDC Extends Social Distancing Guidelines To Apply To Pets - Now that the first domesticated dog has tested positive for for the novel coronavirus, joining at least one tiger at the Bronx Zoo, it's probably worth noting that the CDC earlier this month extended America's social distancing guidelines to include pets. To be clear: there's no evidence of pets infecting humans, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. So far, tests suggested that the viral strains found in animals weren't concentrated enough to cause infection in humans, but nobody can say for certain.We’re still learning about how #COVID19 affects animals, but it appears that people can spread the virus to animals in some situations. Until we know more, limit contact with pets if you are sick or feeling sick. For more info, see: https://t.co/H8NS2GTd4x. pic.twitter.com/uGEbo1su2O — CDC (@CDCgov) April 23, 2020 Instead of allowing your dog to run around the neighborhood without a leash, sniffing the anus of every fellow canine, the new guidelines advise Americans to "treat pets as you would other human family members.""Do not let pets interact with animals or people outside the household," the CDC said.Dog owners should avoid taking their fur-babies to dog parks, or any places where they might risk infection.More importantly, the guidelines recommend that "if a person inside the household becomes sick, isolate that person from everyone else, including pets."While the CDC acknowledged that much research still needs to be done, there's enough evidence now to suggest that pets can be infected by humans.
We Still Don’t Know How the Coronavirus Is Killing Us - Over the last few weeks, the country has managed to stabilize the spread of the coronavirus sufficiently enough to begin debating when and in what ways to “reopen,” and to normalize, against all moral logic, the horrifying and ongoing death toll — thousands of Americans dying each day, in multiples of 9/11 every week now with the virus seemingly “under control.” The death rate is no longer accelerating, but holding steady, which is apparently the point at which an onrushing terror can begin fading into background noise. Meanwhile, the disease itself appears to be shape-shifting before our eyes. In an acute column published April 13, the New York Times’ Charlie Warzel listed 48 basic questions that remain unanswered about the coronavirus and what must be done to protect ourselves against it, from how deadly it is to how many people caught it and shrugged it off to how long immunity to the disease lasts after infection (if any time at all). “Despite the relentless, heroic work of doctors and scientists around the world,” he wrote, “there’s so much we don’t know.” The 48 questions he listed, he was careful to point out, did not represent a comprehensive list. And those are just the coronavirus’s “known unknowns.” But there is one big question that didn’t even make it onto Warzel’s list that has only gotten more mysterious in the weeks since: How is COVID-19 actually killing us? We are now almost six months into this pandemic, which began in November in Wuhan, with 50,000 Americans dead and 200,000 more around the world. If each of those deaths is a data point, together they represent a quite large body of evidence from which to form a clear picture of the pandemic threat. The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?” You probably have a sense of the range of common symptoms, and a sense that the range isn’t that weird: fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath have been, since the beginning of the outbreak, the familiar, oft-repeated group of tell-tale signs. But while the CDC does list fever as the top symptom of COVID-19, so confidently that for weeks patients were turned away from testing sites if they didn’t have an elevated temperature,according to the Journal of the American Medical Association, as many as 70 percent of patients sick enough to be admitted to New York State’s largest hospital system did not have a fever. “[T]he degree to which doctors and scientists are, still, feeling their way, as though blindfolded, toward a true picture of the disease cautions against any sense that things have stabilized, given that our knowledge of the disease hasn’t even stabilized.”
He ran marathons and was fit. So why did Covid-19 almost kill him? – STAT - A week after testing positive for Covid-19, Joshua Fiske drove himself to a New Jersey hospital with a fever nearing 104 and a blood oxygen level extraordinarily low for an athletic 47-year-old. An X-ray revealed pneumonia in both lungs. He was admitted but his condition worsened: He felt cold enough to shiver under five blankets in one moment, then sweated through his hospital gown the next. He worried he wouldn’t pull through. He called his wife to say he loved her. He called his two sons and asked them to take care of their mother, then tapped out a letter to them on his phone. He wanted them to grow into good, kind men, he told them. Above all, he urged, “Don’t let this event define you.” Among the many mysteries of Covid-19 is why relatively healthy young people suddenly become critically ill — or die. One answer is what was happening to Fiske. His body had begun to fight the coronavirus with the immune system’s equivalent of thermonuclear weapons — proteins so powerful they risk annihilating the body they are supposed to protect. This massive over-reaction, known as a cytokine storm, is believed to be a major reason that a growing number of exceedingly fit people find themselves fighting for their lives.Immune cells release cytokines as part of the normal response to infections, but in many Covid-19 patients, this process gets out of hand, leading to inflammation and fluid buildup in the lungs. The storms pose a dilemma for doctors: Prescribe medications that tamp down the immune system at the wrong moment, and the body will be defenseless against the coronavirus or any opportunistic infection that’s taken root. Do nothing, and there’s a good chance the massive attack will shut down the lungs and other vital organs. Scientists have begun to study how many patients who become critically ill with Covid-19 experience these storms, which were initially seen in some of the earliest patients hospitalized in Wuhan, China. In one study of 53 patients in China, researchers concluded that three particular cytokines were correlated with disease severity and death. (The paper was posted on a preprint server and hasn’t been peer-reviewed.) The crucial question of what portion of critically ill patients are vulnerable to cytokine storms — and why — awaits more detailed research. “We don’t know the numbers, but among previously healthy people ages 20 to 60 who require hospitalization, a significant number are suffering from cytokine storms in addition to the virus,” Cron told STAT.
Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US surpass one million - The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States rocketed past one million over the weekend, with more than 100,000 cases detected in the past three days. The most new cases were recorded in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland and Texas. The tally of the dead also grew to new heights of 56,000. Deaths from COVID-19 in the US are continuing to rise by an average of 2,000 each day. The United States currently has one third of the world COVID-19 caseload, which stands at three million. While Europe as a whole still has more cases, the US is currently on track to overtake the continent within the next two weeks. Worldwide, the death toll is approaching 210,000. Amid the ongoing spread of the worst global pandemic in a century, Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Texas are among nearly 20 states that are either launching or preparing to implement over the next week “Phase 1” reopening plans. They are doing so based on the claim that the number of observed new cases has been declining for at least 14 days, and that reopening is thus safe. Collectively, the states that are opening are home to about half of the American population. Whatever the claims of the various governors, there is no medical or scientific basis for lifting social distancing and isolation measures. Even a single new case indicates community transmission in a region, which can easily spiral into a spate of new cases as people again begin to mingle in large groups. New cases inevitably mean new deaths, as more people are exposed to the deadly contagion. The widely cited University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) study, which in early April claimed that only 60,000 lives would be lost, and has been used repeatedly to justify reopening, is being blown apart by the pandemic itself. The US death toll from the pandemic will surpass the 60,000 figure in the course of the coming week. When asked on Sunday’s “Meet the Press” when he thought it would be safe to reopen, infectious disease specialist Dr. Michael Osterholm warned, “We are in the very earliest days of the situation right now.” He noted that for places like New York, which saw a large spike and now a relative decline in the number of new coronarvirus cases each day, “they have to understand that’s not the mountain. That is the foothills. They have mountains to go yet. We have a lot of people to get infected before this is over.” Osterholm was referencing two basic facts about the current pandemic. First, because hundreds of millions of people have remained at home and thus far not been infected, they are all potential carriers for the virus, and will be exposed to it as they are forced to go back to work or come into contact with people returning to crowded or enclosed areas such as restaurants and bars. Second, there is still no mass testing program in the United States that is capable of giving a clear picture of just how far the virus has spread, nor is there a contact tracing program to test those who have been in the presence of someone who tested positive for COVID-19.
U.S. coronavirus deaths: Tracking cases, deaths by state and county - Washington Post -The disease caused by the novel coronavirus has killed at least 58,000 people in the United States. The country’s earliest covid-19 fatality was thought to be a 58-year-old man near Seattle, whose death was announced Feb. 29.But on April 22, officials in California announced that tissue from two people who had died in early and mid-February in Santa Clara County had tested positive, signaling that the virus may have spread in the country weeks earlier As the death toll rose through March and April and U.S. testing lagged, criteria for reporting deaths changed in some states and cities. Even now, jurisdictions continue to fine-tune their counting and reporting procedures, so numbers in this piece may fluctuate as local authorities classify and reclassify cases.New York City, for instance, in mid-April added to its total more than 3,700 deaths of people who were presumed to have covid-19 but were never tested. Because testing was slow to begin in the United States, health officials agree that the number of reported cases is much lower than the actual number of people who have the disease, and even the count of deaths is probably low because of differences in reporting by overwhelmed local jurisdictions.Hot spots have erupted in a few places with large outbreaks, none more dire than in New York, where at least 295,000 cases have been reported and at least23,000 have died since March 14, when Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) announced the death of an 82-year-old woman. Although it is a populous state, New York also leads the country in deaths per 100,000 residents. Neighboring states are not far behind.Hard-hit Louisiana suffered an early breakout in New Orleans, which may have been fueled by the month-long Carnival celebration that drew more than a million people to the city in February and culminated in a raucous — and crowded — Mardi Gras. Washington, where the U.S. outbreak was first announced in early February, has had a high number of deaths among older people, particularly in the Seattle area. The disease took root early in several King County nursing homes and facilities that care for older, sicker people. Wayne County, Mich., which includes Detroit, has a high rate of infections per capita thanks in part, health officials told the Detroit Free Press, to economic disparities. People in areas of concentrated poverty tend to have higher rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity. The virus is not just an urban issue. Sparsely populated rural areas don’t have the huge raw numbers of cases or deaths that cities are reporting, but some rank highly in deaths and cases per capita. People in very rural areas are more likely to die of flu than urbanites and may be more vulnerable to covid-19 as well, according to a Post analysis of CDC data. Ten counties with highest rate of deaths: [..] A handful of counties in southwestern Georgia have some of the highest rates of infection and deaths in the country. The governor sent Georgia National Guard troops to help with medical care in Dougherty County, which has fewer than 100,000 people but more than 1,000 cases and dozens of deaths.
Coronavirus Has Now Killed More Americans Than Vietnam War - In not even three months since the first known U.S. deaths from COVID-19, more lives have now been lost to the coronavirus pandemic on U.S. soil than the 58,220 Americans who died over nearly two decades in Vietnam. Early Tuesday evening ET, the U.S. death toll reached 58,365, according to Johns Hopkins University. While the number of lives lost in the U.S. during the pandemic and the U.S. death toll in that war are roughly the same now, the death rate from the coronavirus in America is considerably higher. It now stands at about 17.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. During 1968, the deadliest year for the U.S. in Vietnam, the death toll of 16,899 occurred at about half the pandemic's rate — 8.5 troops were killed for every 100,000 U.S. residents.The pandemic has also been marked by nationwide death tolls surpassing 2,000 on six days this month. The highest daily toll for Americans fighting in the Vietnam War was on Jan. 31, 1968, when 246 U.S. personnel were killed during the Tet Offensive. A closer parallel to the total of lives lost so far to the pandemic in the U.S. may be the 2017-2018 flu season, the deadliest in the past decade. There were 61,000 influenza-related deaths nationally reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for a roughly eight-month period.
Why COVID-19 Is Hitting Men Harder Than Women - More men are dying from COVID-19 worldwide than women, and the potential reasons run the gamut from biology to bad habits.The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 68 percent of deaths related to COVID-19 in Europe have been among men.A study by the Higher Health Institute of Rome found that among Italians hospitalized for the novel coronavirus, 8 percent of men died compared to 5 percent of women.In New York City, men have been dying of coronavirus at almost twice the rate of women. The city's health department reports 43 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 men, compared with 23 deaths for every 100,000 women.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently isn't reporting COVID-19 deaths by gender, but experts see no reason the trend would differ elsewhere in the country."Some of the underlying reasons why COVID-19 may be more deadly for men than women may include the fact that heart disease is more common in elderly men than in elderly women," Dr. Stephen Berger, an infectious disease expert and co-founder of the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), told Healthline. "Studies also find that high blood pressure and liver disease are more prevalent in men and these all contribute to more negative outcomes with COVID-19.""Genetics may also play a big role," Berger said. "Women, because of their extra X chromosome, have a stronger immune system and response to infections than men." "You can't get away from biology and genetics,"
Police uncover bodies in U-Haul trucks outside NYC funeral home after neighbors report foul odor - NYPD officers on Wednesday reportedly discovered dozens of bodies in unrefrigerated U-Haul trucks outside a Brooklyn funeral home. Neighbors had called police about a foul odor they believed traced back to the Andrew Cleckley Funeral Home in the Flatlands neighborhood, according to PIX11. Police sources told the outlet that at least 30 bodies had been stored in the trucks after the funeral home filled to capacity. "[F]uneral directors are required to store decedents awaiting burial or other final disposition in appropriate conditions and to follow their routine infection prevention and control precautions,” a spokesperson for the New York State Health Department told PIX11, adding that the department has been informed of the “storage issues.” Police told a local Fox affiliate that the city’s Health Department and Environmental Protection Department were also on the scene and helped move the bodies to refrigerated trucks. Borough president Eric Adams tweeted Wednesday afternoon that he was “heading out to Flatlands right now” to investigate the reports. “This is exactly what I spoke about over the weekend regarding the urgent need for reform in the handling of bodies and burial processes,” he wrote. “We demand decent treatment of our deceased.”
EXCLUSIVE: 'It's a horror movie.' Nurse working on coronavirus frontline in New York claims the city is 'murdering' COVID-19 patients by putting them on ventilators and causing trauma to the lung - A frontline nurse working in New York on coronavirus patients claims the city is killing sufferers by putting them on ventilators. 'It's a horror movie,' she said through a friend. 'Not because of the disease, but the way it is being handled.' And she said relatives of the sick need to make it clear as soon as a person is taken to the hospital that they do not want them hooked up to the breathing machines. The nurse, who has relocated to New York temporarily to help with the city's COVID-19 crisis, persuaded a friend — a nurse practitioner who is not working on coronavirus patients — to make the video for her in order to tell the world what she says is happening inside hospitals. 'I am her voice here. I'm going to tell you what she has told me,' said the nurse practitioner, who was identified only as Sara NP. 'She wants this to get out.' 'She has never seen so much neglect. No one cares. They are cold and they don't care anymore. It's the blind leading the blind.' 'People are sick, but they don't have to stay sick. They are killing them, they are not helping them,' added the friend in the video posted on YouTube. 'She used the word murder, that coming from a nurse who went to New York City expecting to help. 'Patients are left to rot and die — her words. People are being murdered and no one cares.' Sara would not reveal which hospital the nurse is working in 'for the safety of those involved.' More than 12,000 people have died from the virus in New York City, with another 4,300 dying in other parts of the Empire State, which is a far larger number than any other state in the country. Republican Minnesota state Senator Scott Jensen told Fox News' Laura Ingraham that Medicare pays hospitals three times as much if patients are placed on ventilators. 'How can anyone not believe that increasing the number of COVID-19 deaths may create an avenue for states to receive a larger portion of federal dollars,' Jensen later posted on his Facebook page. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that around 80 percent of people who go on the machines die, although he's referencing patients who were already in dire conditions before being put on the machines.
Despite over 100 transit worker deaths, New York Governor Cuomo and MTA push for unsafe return to work - In a malicious effort to convince transit workers that it is safe to work, Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced on April 25 that antibody testing would begin on employees of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) this week. This criminal measure came only one day before the grim milestone of 100 transit worker deaths was reached. As of April 26, 101 active MTA employees have died from COVID-19. Added to this number are 34 retirees and five school bus drivers. Many more remain in serious condition in hospitals across the city. These figures are collected by a team of transit workers working independently of the MTA, which has been ignored by authorities who refuse to continually track these deaths. Well over 60 employees have died since the agency’s last official tally on April 7. In an April 28 New York Post Op-Ed, MTA Interim President Sarah Feinburg failed to acknowledge the 100-death milestone. As the MTA and Democratic Party politicians become increasingly desperate to cover up their role in these tragic deaths, they resort to foul attacks on New York City’s homeless population, whose plight has only been exacerbated by the virus. In a reference to homeless people taking refuge on subway cars, at his April 28 news conference Governor Cuomo stated that it “is disgusting what is happening on those subway cars.” Whatever measures the MTA takes, they will not be to protect transit workers, who are still highly vulnerable to the virus, as they go without adequate personal protective equipment (PPE), adequate access to testing and paid sick leave. By dehumanizing the homeless and presenting them as scapegoats for their own failings, Cuomo, Feinburg and their allies are trying to distract the public from their own criminal response to the pandemic. It is no accident that attempts to target the homeless come as Cuomo is preparing to reopen New York state, which remains the epicenter of the pandemic. Mass transit’s central role in the economic activity of New York City means it is intertwined with any effort to reopen the state. Knowing that the resumption of business is already unpopular and will lead to tens of thousands of deaths, Cuomo and his big business sponsors are seeking to convince workers who are quarantined that it will be safe to ride the subways and buses.
Florida ordered coroners to stop releasing coronavirus death data: report -Florida officials have reportedly withheld medical examiners’ data on coronavirus deaths in the state for over a week, with the policy changing shortly after the Tampa Bay Times reported that the medical examiners were counting 10 percent more deaths than the state.Stephen Nelson, the chairman of the state Medical Examiners Commission, told the Tampa Bay Times that the state health department intervened and told him it planned to remove causes of death and case descriptions from mortality data.Nelson told the newspaper the data is meaningless without that information, and the entirety of the list should be considered public information.“This is no different than any other public record we deal with,” he said. “It’s paid for by taxpayer dollars and the taxpayers have a right to know.”Alberto Moscoso, a spokesman for the state health department, told the Times that the department “participated in conference calls” with the state Department of Law Enforcement, which provides administrative support to the Medical Examiners Commission, saying the discussions pertained to “privacy concerns for the individuals that passed away related to COVID-19.”
Coronavirus: DeWine unveils reopening details: Offices on Monday; retail on May 12; dine-in restaurants, bars remain closed - Columbus Dispatch - Five weeks after issuing a stay-at-home order amid the coronavirus pandemic, Gov. Mike DeWine on Monday authorized a return to work for some Ohioans but delayed reopening retail stores to May 12. The governor said he was attempting to strike a balance between reviving Ohio’s cratered economy while protecting Ohioans and insisting on “strong” virus precautions by businesses and employers. General offices, distribution centers, manufacturers and construction companies can open on Monday, DeWine announced. Retail stores and consumer and service businesses will be permitted to open on May 12, which the governor said signified his “layered-in” approach to kick-starting business while seeking to protect public health. But so-called “hands-on” services such as barber shops, hair and nail salons, tattoo parlors, massage therapists and others must remain closed. Restaurant dine-in service was not authorized for resumption, and bars also will remain closed except for carry-out. The Ohio Restaurant Association reports that 300,000 employees have lost jobs and half of the state’s restaurants have halted operations because the COVID-19 strictures. Following DeWine’s remarks, the association pleaded to permit “social distanced” dine-in service in restaurants, by removing tables and taking other steps, starting May 15. DeWine said elective medical procedures and surgeries, halted under a March 17 order to preserve beds and personal protection equipment, can proceed beginning Friday if they are medically justified and do not require overnight stays. Dental offices and veterinary clinics also are allowed to reopen Friday. The stay-at-home order running through Friday will effectively remain in place, DeWine said, with gatherings of more than 10 people still forbidden. Events that attract crowds, such as sporting events and concerts, remain forbidden. A graphic shown by the governor at his Friday briefing to Ohioans stated “No mask, no work, no service, no exception” in listing protocols being demanded in workplaces and stores. DeWine and state Health Director Dr. Amy Acton did not make wearing a mask in public mandatory, but masks are required for all workers and customers at all times, including in stores and workplaces. Employers also must conduct daily health assessments of employees, help them maintain 6-foot social distancing and regularly sanitize workplaces and stores. Those who can work from home should continue doing so. Work shifts and lunch hours are expected to be staggered to avoid people congregating and stores are expected to limit the numbers allowed in to avoid crowds and ensure separation. Campgrounds, gyms, larger daycare centers, movie theaters, casinos, health clubs, amusement parks, zoos and museums are among places that will remain closed. DeWine already has closed K-12 classrooms for the rest of the school year.
Coronavirus in Ohio: Death toll surpasses 1,000 as DeWine sells reopening plan, cautions the virus still looms - Gov. Mike DeWine signaled Friday that more businesses could reopen later this month but that it had to be done in a way to avoid having to revert back to more restrictive closures because of a spike in new virus cases. Alternately accused of “moving much too slow” by the open-up-Ohio faction and “moving much too fast” by those frightened by the still-predatory coronavirus, Gov. Mike DeWine worked Friday to reassure both sides. On a day when Ohio’s COVID-19 toll surpassed 1,000 deaths, the governor sold his phased-in plan to reopen businesses as an economic necessity while underlining the precautions being enacted to reduce infection risk. On one hand, DeWine signaled that more reopenings — after the May 12 liberation of retail stores — could come later this month, such as dine-in restaurants, hair salons, barber shops and fitness centers. “Some of these will come fairly quickly” in reopening once best practices are approved, the governor said, adding he wants the scheduled roll-out to succeed and avoid backtracking with closings if virus cases spike. At the same time, he told Ohioans that the deadly respiratory disease is not vanishing and they must remain cautious as they begin a partial return to normalcy in the marketplace. Concern remains, DeWine said, in “not knowing where this virus is going ... people are going to have watch what this virus situation is and make decisions.
ACLU study predicts an additional 100,000 COVID-19 deaths in US prisons - A study published by the American Civil Liberties Union last week projects nearly 100,000 additional COVID-19 deaths on top of the current estimates in the US if jail and prison populations are not dramatically reduced. Of this number, 23,000 will succumb behind bars and a further 76,000 in surrounding communities as the virus spreads from guards and released inmates. The study warns that jails will act as “veritable volcanoes for the spread of the virus” and predicts a doubling of the current projection from the Trump administration of 100,000 deaths, and is likely an underestimate. The US has the single largest prison population in the world, with 2.3 million people incarcerated. More than 420,000 Americans work in these facilities as guards or staff. Despite the US containing roughly 4 percent of the world’s population, it accounts for 21 percent of the world’s incarcerated population. At any given time approximately 740,000 are held in overcrowded local jails with constantly revolving populations. Roughly 11 million people pass through the jail system each year—a rate of one person every three seconds. As of 2018, the US was operating at 103.9 percent of prison capacity nationally. With US jails and prisons overflowing, the risk of infection to inmates, staff and community members is accelerating. In Ohio, one in five confirmed COVID-19 positive cases are inmates. On April 19, there were 1,057 cases in the Marion Correctional Facility; by April 22, that number had grown to 2,011—accounting for 78 percent of the prison population. This rapid growth in cases demonstrates just how quickly the virus can spread in these crowded facilities. The Ohio prison is the only case where all the prisoners were tested and illustrates what must be the true extent of the problem throughout the entire prison and jail systems. The testing also showed that a large percentage of those who tested positive were not showing any symptoms. This is a dire warning to the entire population that without mass testing there are many people who have COVID-19 without knowing it and are passing the infection on to many others. Cook County jail in Chicago has reported 400 inmate infections with six deaths, plus 223 infections and one death among staff. In Michigan, which is one of the hardest hit states, with over 37,000 total confirmed cases, 572 of 889 tests of inmates resulted in positive cases, with more than 200 staff members also infected. The high rate of infections among staff and the large percentage of tests yielding positive cases is a dramatic warning of how severe this situation may become.
Detroit nursing home residents and care workers infected and dying from COVID-19 - At a news conference Monday afternoon Chief Health Officer of the Detroit Health Department Denise Fair reported that 947 residents of the city have died so far in the COVID-19 pandemic. She also reported that 200 residents along with three nursing home workers had died in the city’s 26 nursing homes. While all residents in Detroit’s 26 nursing homes were tested by city EMS workers over the past ten days, only 100 staff have been tested. Fair estimated that there are between 100 and 200 staff employed at each nursing home, meaning thousands of staff remain untested. Newly released data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) shows a total of 2,637 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among nursing home residents throughout the state. Although the data does not include the number who have died in these facilities, there are 488 Michigan nursing homes with 425 of them reporting cases so far or 87 percent of the total. The data includes a breakdown of the number of facilities in each county along with a separate list of the names of each nursing home. There are 85 nursing homes in Wayne County, where Detroit is located, the largest number of facilities in any county. The total number of confirmed cases in Wayne County is 864 and, with 57 of the nursing homes reporting infections, the rate of infection is among the greatest in the state at 15 on average per location. The three counties in the Detroit metropolitan area, Oakland, Macomb and Wayne, combined have 70 percent of the total confirmed coronavirus cases at long-term care facilities in the state. Four of the homes among the list of highest rates of infection in Michigan are run by Villa Healthcare, a Skokie, Illinois-based for-profit nursing home chain with a total of 16 facilities in Michigan. There are 200 cases of coronavirus across twelve of the Villa nursing homes in lower Michigan. According to a report from Democratic Mayor Mike Duggan all 26 nursing homes have cases of COVID-19. In one location, Duggan reported that half of the residents had tested positive. Meanwhile, of all the health care workers and residents who initially tested positive for COVID-19, half of them showed no symptoms of the disease. Duggan said the city would be testing all nursing home staff as a part of a plan to “partner” with employers at grocery stores and other Detroit businesses to sign on to his six-point plan to get all city workers back on the job as part of the effort to reopen the economy while the pandemic continues to rage.
Detroit bus drivers and riders exposed to COVID-19 -- “He had the gloves; he had the mask. He did the hand sanitizer, the handwashing. He did it all. The only thing me and him did not do, and the rest of my co-workers are not doing, is we are not able to stay in the house.” The death of Jason Hargrove made headlines around the world. Two weeks before his death, Hargrove posted a video to Facebook, venting his frustration about being exposed to sick passengers on his bus. Voicing the feelings of many workers who are forced to risk their lives to keep society functioning and put food on the table, the video has been viewed over 800,000 times. “I kept my mouth closed, but it’s at some point in time we’ve got to draw the line and say enough is enough.” Infections and deaths are rising to alarming levels among transit workers, along with healthcare, food supply, delivery and other workers deemed essential. In fact, workers in essential industries constitute 36 percent or 2.8 million transit commuters, according to a study by transitcenter.org. As a result, both transit workers and passengers are at high risk, as the bus and subway systems have become a major vector for disease transmission. Although Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has imposed a state-at-home order through mid-May, restaurant, grocery store, Amazon, nursing home and other essential workers must show up for work or lose their income. Detroit is one of the epicenters of the COVID-19 disease, with 8,613 cases and 922 deaths as of this writing. The tri-county metropolitan area has more than half the 37,778 cases and 3,315 deaths. The high number of deaths is directly tied to diabetes, hypertension, obesity and other ill health associated with high levels of poverty. After decades of plant closures and mass layoffs, Detroit—which has the highest per capita income of any US city in 1960—has been poorest big city in America for decades. For at least 25 percent of the residents of the “Motor City,” the bus is their only transportation option because they cannot afford a car. The cost of car ownership in Detroit is the highest out of any city in the country. The average cost of car insurance is $5,414 per year, over 20 percent of the typical household income of $26,300.
Officials scale back McCormick Place plans by 2,000 beds as coronavirus curve flattens - Chicago Tribune City and state officials have decided to open 2,000 fewer beds at the McCormick Place medical center for now, citing the slowing growth of COVID-19 cases in Illinois.McCormick originally was supposed to have 3,000 beds in case Chicago-area hospitals were hit with more coronavirus patients than they could handle at once. For the time being, however, a planned 1,750-bed hall won’t be opened. And a separate hall for sicker patients has been scaled back by 250 beds. In recent weeks, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has said Illinois has been bending the curve, meaning the number of cases is growing at a slower rate than it was. Around the beginning of April, cases were doubling every 3.6 days, and as of mid-April, that had been stretched to about 8.2 days. “We have made alterations at McCormick Place where there are fewer beds that will be available than the original plan because it appears, at least for the moment, that we’re only gradually increasing the number of ... hospitalizations and the result of that is we will probably need fewer beds there,” Pritzker said Saturday.
April 27 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Disappointing - Disappointing, but might be weekend related. From The Hill: Fauci confident US will double coronavirus testing capacity over next several weeks Fauci said in a webcast hosted by the National Academy of Sciences that that the U.S. is currently averaging between 1.5 million and 2 million tests per week. "We probably should get up to twice that as we get into the next several weeks, and I think we will," Fauci said. "Testing is an important part of what we’re doing, but it is not the only part." … "You need enough tests so when you’re doing what we’re trying to do right now, which is trying to ease our way back, that you can very easily identify, test, contact trace and get those who are infected out of society so they don’t infect others," he said, adding that positive test results should account for less than 10 percent of tests administered. Based on these comments, the US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day in several weeks - and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace. There were 135,505 test results reported over the last 24 hours. (chart) This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16.2% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push the percentage positive below 5%, although Dr. Fauci said below 10% (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).
Coronavirus Is Spreading Through Rural South’s High-Risk Population – Reopening Economies will Make it Worse - In the rural South, the COVID-19 pandemic is becoming a silent disaster.As rural residents commute to jobs in cities and transportation hubs, they're being exposed to the virus and bringing it home to a population already at risk.Chronic diseases that can lead to more severe COVID-19 symptoms are common across the rural South. The population is older and poorer than much of the country, and the health care system has been deteriorating for years as hospitals lose staff and close.Despite the population's vulnerability, Southern states have been a stronghold of resistance to federal and international recommendations around COVID-19 protective measures. Most of the states' delays and refusalsto enact "shelter-at-home" policies were tied to economic arguments.Now, governors are using the same economic reasons for loosening those restrictions. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp called for reopening several types of businesses, including hair salons, starting Friday and restaurants and even theaters starting Monday, despite concerns from public health officials. Mississippi is also considering lifting its shelter-at-home orders for economic reasons. When that happens, service workers, once partially protected from exposure, will find themselves at greater risk.As University of Mississippi sociologists who work with rural communities on a range of resilience issues, especially health, we are concerned about the economic and health consequences of returning to business before the region is prepared to protect its residents.Rural Commuters on the Urban Front Lines Rural areas may seem isolated from the coronavirus threat, but in the South, one in 12 rural residents commutes to an urban hub for work. Many of those jobs are on the front lines of health care and service industries, where exposure to other people is hard to avoid. In much of the South, "shelter-at-home" orders have had loose interpretations of "essential personnel" who are exempted from the order. They include employees in high-exposure jobs – cashiers, fast food workers and registered nurses, all among the largest employment areas for Southern states. Many of these workers are less likely to have sick leave or be able to work from home. And they are paid lower wages, so many still go to work even when they're sick.
‘This is a potential public health disaster:’ COVID-19 results from TestUtah.com are raising questions - The accuracy of coronavirus tests by TestUtah.com has come into question, with state data showing that the rate of positive results among people tested at its sites is less than half what it is for patients tested elsewhere in the state. And medical experts have been raising concerns about the effort, which has funneled millions of taxpayer dollars to the Utah tech companies running it here and in two other states. While Utah’s larger health care systems have relied on national names in diagnostics for their coronavirus tests, TestUtah has obtained its tests from a smaller Salt Lake City company and is processing them at a regional hospital in Orem. “I worry about having tests routed to a small community hospital lab inexperienced with highly complex molecular testing that uses a test from an unknown company without much in vitro diagnostic experience,” Bert Lopansri, a specialist in infectious diseases and microbiology at Intermountain Healthcare, wrote in an April 14 email that The Salt Lake Tribune obtained through an open records request after it circulated through state offices. “A pandemic is not the time for amateurs to learn,” Lopansri concluded.
US capital sees highest one-day jump in COVID-19 cases - The nation's capital recorded the highest single-day jump in confirmed coronavirus cases on Friday as cases spiked by 335 as testing expands. Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser said city officials have "always known" that their peak in number of daily cases was going to come in May, and that officials expect the trend to continue. "And so while we are hearing reports of a flattening of the curve, and certainly we have less cases today than we thought we would when we started our response, we have not hit our peak," she said during an interview with local NBC affiliate WRC-TV. Total cases in the district now stand at 4,658 with deaths at 231 after seven were added Friday, according to official data. D.C.'s upward trend is indicative of the wider capital region with Maryland seeing a massive upsurge in cases with 1,730 more reported there Friday, raising the state's total to 23,472. And in Virginia 929 new positives were recorded, raising the commonwealth's total to 16,109. Deaths in Maryland stand at 1,098 after 51 people died of the virus on Thursday, and fatalities in Virginia are nearing 600. Bowser and the governors of Virginia and Maryland have said they want to see a downward trend in cases and hospitalizations before they begin the process to reopen their localities, indicating shelter-in-place orders are unlikely to be lifted anytime soon.
Illinois Reports Largest Daily Rise in Cases as New Stay-at-Home Order Takes Effect – On the same day Illinois' modified stay-at-home order took effect, the state reported more than 3,000 new coronavirus cases, the highest daily increase in the state since the pandemic began. There were 3,137 additional cases confirmed in the last 24 hours, health officials announced. That brings the state total to 56,055. May 1 briefing: Gov. J.B. Pritzker details his plan for how to implement contact tracing in Illinois. The state also reported an additional 105 fatalities, lifting the total number of deaths associated with the virus to 2,457. The additional cases and deaths come as officials believe Illinois is near a peak. Illinois' modified stay-at-home order took effect Friday, though Gov. J.B. Pritzker is currently in a legal battle over the extension. The new order mandates face coverings for all Illinois residents who must go to public spaces, like grocery stores, where social distancing isn't possible. It also allows for the reopening of several businesses across the state, as well as golf courses and state parks. Meanwhile, dozens of people gathered in Chicago's Loop to protest the new order, calling for Pritzker to reopen the state.
Connecticut has one of the nation’s highest coronavirus death tolls. Here’s why. - Hartford Courant -- With 2,257 coronavirus-linked fatalities so far, Connecticut has experienced one of the nation’s deadliest COVID-19 outbreaks, enduring more reported deaths than some entire countries. Despite its small size, Connecticut has had more total fatalities than states such as California, Texas, Florida and Washington — as well as the nations of Mexico, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland, among others. Per capita, Connecticut ranks third nationwide in deaths, behind only New York and New Jersey. Advertisement Fairfield, New Haven and Hartford counties all rank among the 25 U.S. counties with the most coronavirus-linked deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Beyond the numbers, the deaths have written a new and tragic chapter in the state’s history. Connecticut has seen the deaths of medical workers and nursing home residents, of long-married couples and vibrant young people. Through much of it, the state’s coronavirus victims have died alone and their loved ones have grieved alone. There is no single answer to the question of why COVID-19 has been so deadly in Connecticut. But experts point to a confluence of factors, including the state’s proximity to New York, its density, the age of its population and its lack of significant social distancing measures until well into March. New York City has been the nation’s largest COVID-19 hot spot, accounting for more than 20% of all deaths nationally, and Connecticut has seemed to suffer from its proximity to the city. Early on, at least, Fairfield County residents likely contracted the virus in New York, then brought it home. “We have people still going into New York daily to commute to work,” Norwalk Mayor Harry Rilling noted in late March, when his town already had more than 100 cases. “It’s hard to tell them to quarantine because they may be an essential employee in New York.” The apparent path of the virus, from Fairfield County into New Haven and then Hartford, supports the idea that Connecticut’s outbreak largely began in New York, where an array of factors — from people riding packed subways to the city’s role as an international hub — have contributed to a devastating impact. “What we saw was that the communities closest to New York City were hit first and were hit hardest, and then the virus spread across the state,”
'It’s horrific': coronavirus kills nearly 70 at Massachusetts veterans' home - Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for ageing veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the US. While the death toll at the state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home continues to climb, federal officials are investigating whether residents were denied proper medical care and the state’s top prosecutor is deciding whether to bring legal action. The superintendent, Bennett Walsh, said this month that state officials knew that the home was in “crisis mode” when it came to staffing shortages and were notified early and often about the contagion at the facility. Staffing problems that plagued the home for years contributed to the virus spreading like wildfire, said Joan Miller, a nurse at the home. Because staffing was so tight, workers from one unit were constantly moving to others to help out – and bringing their germs with them, she said. At one point, a unit was shut down because there wasn’t enough staff to operate it, and those veterans were moved into close quarters in other parts of the building, she said. “Geriatricians and experts in long-term care medicine were sounding alarms at the beginning of March and we’ve essentially been ignored by everyone: federal, state, local government and the nursing home industry,” he said. There is currently no official count of nursing home deaths across the country. The federal government has only recently required the nation’s more than 15,000 nursing homes to start reporting numbers of confirmed and presumed deaths and infections, but it is not yet clear when that count will be published. In the meantime, the Associated Press has been compiling its own tally from state health departments and media reports, finding at least 13,762 deaths from outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities across the country. But that is probably an undercount because only about half the states are currently reporting nursing home deaths and not all count those who died without being tested for Covid-19.
Coronavirus cases surged in educated and affluent Massachusetts. The decline has yet to come. - Massachusetts has one of the most educated and affluent populations in the country. It’s home to some of the nation’s most preeminent medical centers. And it has political leaders who have worked cooperatively, across party lines, in the face of a crisis. Massachusetts also has the third-highest number of confirmed state coronavirus cases, along with the fourth-highest death toll. And despite predictions that numbers would be falling by now after a month and a half of people staying at home, new case counts have instead remained stubbornly high. The state’s struggle to combat the coronavirus reflects just what a tenacious adversary it really is. Even for a place that has a lot going for it, the toll has been severe — and it is growing by the day. As of Friday, Massachusetts had more than 64,000 cases — behind only New York and New Jersey, its larger northeastern neighbors. New cases totaled 2,106, continuing a dismal streak lasting more than two weeks of at least 1,500 additional cases per day. Deaths hit 3,716, behind only New York, New Jersey and Michigan. Even as many states began opening up their economies Friday — allowing restaurants, shopping malls and hair salons to do business — that remained a distant prospect in Massachusetts. Instead, Gov. Charlie Baker (R) on Friday was announcing new restrictions, including a requirement that people wear masks while in public. “This is going to be a way of life,” Baker said. “No ifs, no ands, no buts, no doubts.”
Coronavirus dashboard for April 30: the US has the worst record in the world, by far --Here is the update through yesterday (April 29):Number of new and total reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com and 91-divoc.com):
- Number: South Korea: ZERO (4 detected from incoming flights at airport)
- Number: Taiwan: ZERO
- Number: Vietnam: ZERO
- Number: Germany: 1,627 (up from 988 on April 27; 3 day average of 1,256 down -81.5% from 6,790 peak on April 1-3) (highlighted in graph below)
- Number: US: up +24,114 to 1,040,488 (vs. day/day high of +36,161 on April 24; 3 day average of 24,709, down -26.1% from 33,437 peak on April 8-10)(#1 in the world, 5.7x #2 Spain)(outlier at top of graph below)
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There has been a slight decrease in the number of new cases in the US. The US has the worst record in the world, by far.
I have discontinued tracking the rate of new cases and deaths each day. That was to determine if we were “bending the curve.” We were. the issue now is whether cases will continue to go down in any significant way or not. Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
- ***Number of deaths: Total 52,525, increase of +2,700 day/day (new daily high)
- Seven day average of deaths: 1,722 vs. 2,058 peak on April 21
- Number of tests: 230,442 (vs. 300,833 daily peak on April 25*)**
- Ratio of positive tests to total: 8.4:1 (vs. 8.7 on April 27)
In the past two weeks, as shown in the graph above, the percentage of positive to total tests has declined from about 20% to 12%,or an average of -4% a week. If this should fall to 6%, then based on the history of South Korea, lockdowns can begin to be judiciously lifted and a thoroughgoing regimen of “test, trace, and isolate” can be begun.
A Navy Destroyer Is Heading To Port, Crippled By Another COVID-19 Outbreak At Sea - Will yet another major US Navy warship be disabled by the coronavirus pandemic like the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier fiasco? The Navy now reports its Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, the USS Kidd has at least 33 confirmed COVID-19 cases among the crew, nearly doubling in the last few days from an initial 18 cases reported last Thursday.The destroyer has a total crew of 350 and is currently off the Pacific coast of South America. Its mission is reportedly related to US counter-narcotics operations off coastal waters of South America.At least two sailors have been medically evacuated from the ship to military hospitals in San Antonio, and the destroyer has since begun returning to port for deep a disinfecting cleaning and further testing of crew.“The first patient transported is already improving and will self-isolate. We are taking every precaution to ensure we identify, isolate, and prevent any further spread onboard the ship,” commander US Naval Forces Southern Command and 4th Fleet, Rear Admiral Don Gabrielson, said.The Navy also indicated all crew have donned N95 masks and other personal protective equipment in efforts to contain the spread. Furthermore an amphibious assault ship identified as the USS Makin Island has been sent to aid the USS Kidd at sea. The Makin Island reportedly has a team of naval doctors aboard, including intensive care capacity and ventilators.The USS Kidd plans to ramp up testing of all its crew as fears mount of another possible USS Roosevelt catastrophe. In that ongoing crisis the nuclear carrier starting late last month into April was stricken with over 850 coronavirus cases, among a crew of almost 5,000 - forcing it to dock at Guam and cut short its mission in the West Pacific.
Coronavirus live updates: Global cases top 3 million, Japan unemployment rate rises - More than 3 million people are now reported to have been infected by the coronavirus around the world and over 210,800 have died from the respiratory disease Covid-19, data from Johns Hopkins University showed. The virus outbreak was reported in China's Hubei province late last year before it spread rapidly to all parts of the world in mere months. Hopkins' data showed the United States has more than 987,000 confirmed cases of infection and a death toll of over 56,000. Spain has more than 229,400 reported cases while Italy has over 199,400 cases. France, Germany and the United Kingdom each have more than 158,000 cases.China's National Health Commission said it confirmed six new cases of infection, with half of them attributed to travelers from overseas. No new deaths were reported, the same as yesterday. There were 40 asymptomatic cases. Cumulative confirmed cases in mainland China totaled 82,836 and 4,633 people have died. On April 17, the cumulative death toll rose substantially after an investigation in the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak was first reported, added 1,290 deaths. Japan's March jobless rate rose to its highest level in a year, while job availability fell to a more than three-year low, according to official data, Reuters reported. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 2.5% and the jobs-to-applications ratio fell to 1.39 in March, the news agency said. While the unemployment rate appears relatively low compared to how other economies are faring in the global economic crisis fueled by the coronavirus pandemic, it could put more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to inject more stimulus into the Japanese economy. His government has already approved a stimulus package worth 108 trillion yen ($990 billion), or 20% of Japan's economic output, Reuters reported. Japan has more than 13,400 cases of infection and a national emergency is in place until May 6 for seven regions including Tokyo and Osaka. Local media reported that the government is considering if it would be extended. —
- Global cases: More than 3 million
- Global deaths: More than 210,800
- Most cases reported: United States (987,022), Spain (229,422), Italy (199,414), France (165,962), and Germany (158,434).
The data above was compiled by Johns Hopkins University as of 8:42 a.m. Beijing time.
Map and charts showing the spread of the novel coronavirus - Reuters graphics
Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported - FT - The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries. Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods. If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000. To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied. In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease.
A new analysis of coronavirus deaths suggests that official tolls are massively undercounting all over the world A new analysis of coronavirus deaths in 14 countries found that official death tolls are likely massively understating the true scale of the pandemic.The Financial Times studied the number of deaths from all causes in 14 countries in March and April, then compared that figure with the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. It concluded that the difference between the two was a reasonable estimate of how many extra deaths the pandemic had caused.The Financial Times found that the death toll calculated this way was almost 60% higher than the various countries' official death tolls: a total of 122,000 deaths above normal levels, compared with 77,000 from the official numbers.It has long been clear that official figures — usually from national health ministries — are not capturing all the deaths from the pandemic. Some governments, for instance, do not include deaths in care homes.The Financial Times said its figure might also capture deaths that are indirectly attributable to the virus — for example, people who died of other health problems because national systems were overwhelmed with virus patients. But it said most were directly related to the virus. "Excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst COVID-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns," the report said.
UK coronavirus death toll passes 26,000 as government admits to 4,000 fatalities outside hospitals - The UK coronavirus death toll reached 26,097 yesterday. Confirming the naked criminality of the Johnson government’s pursuit of its “herd immunity” policy, it admitted that an additional 3,811 deaths took place between March 2 and April 28. Around 70 percent of these were "outside hospital settings," mainly in care homes and private residences. In addition to the 3,811 deaths, a further 765 fatalities were reported in the 24 hours to 5 p.m. Tuesday, of which around 600 died in hospital. Deaths in hospitals in England alone are approaching 20,000 (19,740). The UK is fast becoming the centre of the pandemic in Europe and is set to surpass the 27,682 deaths already recorded in Italy. Italy’s death toll is the second worst in the world after the United States, which has 61,656 deaths. The government is only now releasing the number of deaths in care homes due to growing public outrage over elderly and vulnerable people being allowed to die without any protection, as the coronavirus ripped through residential homes that have been turned into killing fields. Despite its admission of thousands more deaths outside hospitals, the government is still vastly under-reporting the true number of COVID-19 fatalities. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has already reported 6,000 deaths in care homes, and in just the two weeks to April 24, the Care Quality Commission was notified of 4,343 deaths from COVID-19 in care homes. In Scotland, deaths as a result of COVID-19 account for half of reported fatalities in care homes. The National Records of Scotland reported Wednesday that by April 26 there had been 2,272 COVID-19-linked deaths. Of these, 338 of the 656 deaths recorded between April 20 and 26 were in care homes. Speaking to BBC Radio Four Tuesday, Professor David Spiegelhalter, a University of Cambridge statistician, said, “What we are seeing is a massive increase in deaths. … While COVID deaths in hospitals have been steadily declining since April 8 and now number around 400-450 a day, new Care Quality Commission data show that last week there were around 350-400 COVID deaths in English care-homes each day. When we add in deaths at home, this suggests there are now about as many COVID deaths out of hospital as in hospital. And while hospital deaths are steadily decreasing, there is no sign yet that we are past the peak in care homes.” The government’s daily figures have never included the figures recorded by the ONS of more than 880 people with coronavirus dying at home in England and Wales since the first death in the UK at the end of February. The ONS has also recorded 190 coronavirus deaths in hospices. Even the pro-Tory Daily Mail reported Wednesday that the new “tally still falls thousands short of the reality. … The Government will only include people who have tested positive for the virus in its statistics, despite rationing almost all the testing kits to hospitals for the first month of the outbreak, meaning thousands of people may have died without ever being diagnosed.”
British Doctors Say Ventilators Purchased From China Could Kill Coronavirus Patients - Senior British doctors and medical managers have raised concerns over 250 ventilators the United Kingdom purchased from China. If these ventilators are used in hospital, the group warns "significant patient harm, including death," according to a letter seen by NBC News.The ventilators received from China, the Shangrila 510 model, were built by one of the country's major ventilator manufacturers, Beijing Aeonmed Co. Ltd. The manufacturer could not be reached for comment. The letter detailed serious concerns over the "basic" quality of the ventilators, calling the oxygen supply "variable and unreliable." The doctors said that the machines are also unfamiliar to British doctors and were built for ambulance use, rather than hospital use. Addressed directly to a senior NHS official, the letter stated: "We look forward to the withdrawal and replacement of these ventilators with devices better able to provide intensive care ventilation for our patients." The NHS redirected Newsweek to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for comment. The DHSC said the Shangrila 510 ventilator model is being kept as a reserve and is not currently in use at any hospitals. "Ventilators need to pass robust regulatory tests to ensure they are up to standard before they're delivered to NHS hospitals," a government spokesperson told Newsweek.
Kawasaki disease symptoms in kids in UK possibly linked to coronavirus - The discovery of a potential link between an inflammatory condition in children and coronavirus has important implications for developing an effective vaccine, Australian scientists say. British health authorities reported as many as 12 children, some of whom tested positive to COVID-19, were seriously ill in hospital with severe inflammation in the body. It prompted Britain's National Health Service to issue an alert warning that the condition could be related to COVID-19 in children, or that there "may be another as-yet-unidentified infectious pathogen associated with these cases". The children had symptoms similar to toxic shock syndrome and a condition known as Kawasaki disease, where kids experience abdominal pain, gastrointestinal symptoms and cardiac inflammation. ANU professor Peter Collignon, an infectious disease physician and microbiologist, said scientists needed to know more about why kids under 15 got the mystery inflammatory condition and whether there was a link with COVID-19. "We do need to study these children because we still don't understand why children seem to get this [COVID-19] infection so much less than adults, but also why some people are getting these unusual reactions," he said.
More cases of rare syndrome in children reported globally - Doctors around the world have reported more cases of a rare but potentially lethal inflammatory syndrome in children that appears to be linked to coronavirus infections. Nearly 100 cases of the unusual illness have emerged in at least six countries, with doctors in Britain, the US, France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland now reported to be investigating the condition. The first cases came to light this week when the NHS issued an alert to paediatricians about a number of children admitted to intensive care units with a mix of toxic shock and a condition known as Kawasaki disease, an inflammatory disorder that affects the blood vessel, heart and other organs. So far 19 children have been affected in the UK and none have died. The French health minister, Olivier Veran, said on Wednesday that the country had more than a dozen children with inflammation around the heart, and while there was insufficient evidence to prove a link with coronavirus, he said the cases were being taken “very seriously.” Veran told Franceinfo news radio he had received an alert from Paris concerning “about 15 children of all ages”, adding that other cases had been reported in Spain, Italy and Switzerland. He listed the symptoms as fever, digestive problems and vascular inflammation. At least three children in the US aged six months to eight years are being treated for a similar condition. Mark Gorelik, a specialist treating the patients at Columbia University Medical Center in New York, said all had fever and inflammation of the heart and gut. “Right now, we’re at the very beginning of trying to understand what that represents,” he told Reuters. Gorelik believes the cases are not Kawasaki disease but a similar condition that shares a common cause, namely an infectious agent that triggers an immune response. The three New York cases follow a report from Stanford University in California, in which a 6-month-old was admitted to hospital with Kawasaki disease and was later diagnosed with coronavirus. Many of the children having treatment for the new syndrome have tested positive for coronavirus, but others have not. That could mean that the syndrome is not related to coronavirus, that the children had cleared the virus before they were tested, or that the test missed the infection. Some doctors suspect the syndrome is a “post-infection inflammatory response” where the immune system overreacts in the wake of an infection. This would suggest that in some children the disease has two phases – the initial infection and a secondary immune response that takes hold later.
Balkans: Virus cases surpass 34,500 - The tally of coronavirus cases in the Western Balkan countries has risen to 34,598, with nearly 1,500 deaths in the region. In the last 24 hours, six more people died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, in Serbia, bringing the total number of fatalities to 185. The number of cases on Friday climbed to 9,205, with 285 new cases. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the country has reached the lowest infection rate since the start of the outbreak. Serbia imposed a night curfew on Friday to prevent citizens from gathering outside to celebrate the May 1 holiday. In Montenegro, no new cases have been reported since Monday. So far, the tally of infections stands at 322, with seven deaths. In North Macedonia, 1,494 cases and 81 death have been recorded so far. The government last week relaxed curfew hours but group gatherings remain prohibited and face masks are compulsory in public spaces. In Albania, there are 782 cases of the virus, with 31 deaths. In Croatia, the number of cases increased to 2,085, while deaths in the country rose to 75. In Slovenia, the tally of cases is at 1,434 with 92 deaths, in Romania 12,567 with 726, in Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,771 with 70, in Bulgaria 1,541 with 66, and in Kosovo 806 with 22.
Russia now has second-highest rate of Covid-19 spread as other countries ease restrictions - Up to 2% of Moscow’s population may be infected with coronavirus, the city’s mayor warned on Saturday, as hospitals in the Russian capital were overwhelmed and another top government tested positive. Covid-19 took hold relatively late in Russia, but is now growing fast, with the country showing the second-highest spread of the disease in the world. A record 9,623 new cases on Saturday indicated infections have not yet reached a plateau. If Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin’s estimate is correct, that would mean more than 240,000 people may have the virus, four times official figures for the city. Hospitals in the capital are already at capacity, with television footage showing ambulances forced to wait for hours to deliver the infected. On Friday authorities announced the housing minister was the latest top official to test positive. Vladimir Putin has not been pictured in public for nearly a month and is working from his residence outside Moscow. There are fears outbreaks may have festered undetected in other areas that initially appeared to have escaped the worst ravages of the disease. In Somalia, medics, funeral workers and gravediggers have reported an unprecedented surge of deaths in recent days in the capital Mogadishu, suggesting official counts of Covid-19 deaths -- currently just 601 confirmed cases and 28 deaths -- reflect only a fraction of the virus’s toll. Mohamed Osman Warsame, an ambulance driver, said he had transported between 15 and 18 corpses to cemeteries in the capital every day for the last two weeks, many times above the usual daily figure of between two and four. “There are a lot of deaths. It is like we are in a deadly war. People are dying so fast,” Warsame said. On the island of Bali, an entire hamlet has been locked down after rapid testing showed hundreds of residents were probably infected, the Jakarta Post reported. Out of 1,200 initial tests, 400 returned a reactive result; authorities will follow up with swab tests to confirm infection rates. Increasingly intense efforts to stop the spread of the disease have raised concerns about human rights and civil liberties. Malaysia has been criticised by the UN after detaining hundreds of undocumented migrants, including young children and Rohingya refugees, as part of its efforts to contain coronavirus. The UN said the arrests could push vulnerable groups into hiding and prevent them from seeking treatment, and warned that overcrowded detention centres carried a high risk of increasing the virus’s spread. Privacy advocates in India have also attacked a government order that all public and private sector employees should use a government-backed Bluetooth tracing app, as New Delhi begins easing some of its lockdown measures in lower-risk areas. Worldwide there are now 3.4 million cases of coronavirus and more than 238,000 deaths, although many countries that have passed the peak of their infections are now working on relaxing their lockdown restrictions.
Coronavirus updates: Brazil emerging as potentially next big hot spot as death toll worldwide tops 200,000 - Brazil is emerging as potentially the next big hot spot for the coronavirus amid President Jair Bolsonaro’s insistence that it is just a "little flu” and that there is no need for the sharp restrictions that have slowed the infection’s spread in Europe and the U.S. As some U.S. states and European countries moved gradually Monday to ease their limits on movement and commerce, the intensifying outbreak in Brazil — Latin America's biggest country, with 211 million people — pushed some hospitals to the breaking point, with signs that a growing number of victims are now dying at home. “We have all the conditions here for the pandemic to become much more serious," said Paulo Brandão, a virologist at the University of Sao Paulo. Brazil officially reported about 4,500 deaths and almost 67,000 confirmed infections. But the true numbers there, as in many other countries, are believed to be vastly higher given the lack of testing and the many people without severe symptoms who haven’t sought hospital care. Some scientists said over 1 million in Brazil are probably infected. The country is heading into winter, which can worsen respiratory illnesses. Worldwide, the death toll topped 210,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. The number of dead in the U.S. surpassed 55,000 — close to the 58,000 U.S. troops killed during the Vietnam War. Italy, Britain, Spain and France accounted for more than 20,000 deaths each.In other developments:
- — U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that deaths in the United States from the coronavirus could reach as high as 70,000, after putting the number at 60,000 several times earlier this month.
- — The Trump administration worked to draw up new guidelines for how restaurants, schools, churches and businesses can safely reopen. The White House also unveiled what it described as a comprehensive overview of its efforts to make enough tests for COVID-19 available so states can sample at least 2.6% of their populations each month.
- — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson returned to work after a bout with the virus and warned strongly against easing his own country’s lockdown too soon: “I refuse to throw away all the effort and the sacrifice of the British people and to risk a second major outbreak and huge loss of life."
Coronavirus: Oxford vaccine effective in monkeys, heading for mass production in India - A leading candidate for a Covid-19 vaccine has shown promising results in animal trials, and is expected to see mass production in India within months. The Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest maker of vaccines by volume, said on Tuesday that it plans this year to produce up to 60 million doses of a potential vaccine developed by the University of Oxford, which is under clinical trial in Britain. While the vaccine candidate, called “ChAdOx1 nCoV-19”, is yet to be proven to work against Covid-19, Serum decided to start manufacturing it as it had shown success in animal trials and had progressed to tests on humans, Serum Chief Executive Adar Poonawalla said. Six rhesus macaque monkeys were inoculated with the vaccine candidate at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month, according to The New York Times. The subjects were exposed afterwards to large quantities of the novel coronavirus, but all six remained healthy after more than 28 days, the newspaper reported, citing researcher Vincent Munster, who conducted the test.
Hundreds die in Iran over false belief drinking methanol cures coronavirus - Health workers in Iran are warning people to not fall for coronavirus hoaxes, after 700 people died from alcohol poisoning amid claims drinking bootleg liquor can keep the virus at bay. A report released by the Iranian Government earlier this month showed alcohol poisoning over a two-month period was 10 times the number of cases during the whole of 2019, likely spurred by the COVID-19 epidemic.The national coroner's authority said alcohol poisoning killed 728 Iranians between February 20 and April 7. Last year there were only 66 deaths from alcohol poisoning, according to the report. "People think that alcohol causes immunity to corona, while drinking alcohol does not eliminate corona in the body," a medical expert recently told the Government-aligned Tasnim News Agency. Iran is facing one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the Middle East.(Reuters: Nazanin Tabatabaee) Coronavirus update: Follow the latest news in our daily wrap.Along with Turkey, Iran is facing one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the Middle East with 5,806 deaths and more than 91,000 confirmed cases. Iranian health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said 525 people had died from swallowing toxic methanol alcohol since February 20, according to local state TV.He said a total of 5,011 people had been poisoned from methanol alcohol, adding that about 90 people had lost their eyesight or were suffering eye damage from the alcohol poisoning.
Pakistan: COVID-19 cases top 17,000, deaths near 400 - The number of coronavirus cases in Pakistan passed 17,000 and the death toll moved close to 400 on Friday. The Health Ministry said 1,322 more people tested positive for COVID-19 over the past 24 hours, raising the overall case count to 17,439. A total of 33 fatalities across the country raised the death toll to 391, the ministry said. Overall, 4,315 patients have recovered since Pakistan’s first COVID-19 case was reported on Feb. 26, the ministry added. More than 3.25 million people in 187 countries and regions have been infected since the virus emerged in China last December, with the US and Europe the hardest-hit areas in the world. A significant number of COVID-19 patients – over 1.05 million – have recovered, but the disease has also claimed over 235,000 lives so far, according to data compiled by the Johns Hopkins University in the US.
Coronavirus pandemic surges across South Asia, even as governments push for a return to work - The global coronavirus pandemic, which has recorded over 3 million cases and more than 210,000 deaths worldwide, is rapidly spreading throughout South Asia. The response of governments in the region to this emergency underscores the contempt of the rival national bourgeois ruling elites for hundreds of millions of working people and rural toilers. Given the region’s densely populated urban centres—including Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata in India; Karachi and Lahore in Pakistan; Dhaka in Bangladesh; and Colombo in Sri Lanka— the appalling state of its public healthcare systems, widespread poverty and lack of universal access to clean water and sanitation, the disease threatens to kill millions, even tens of millions, of people in South Asia alone. Yet despite this very real danger, South Asia’s governments have failed to take any substantial measures to effectively combat the pandemic. Their response has largely been limited to social distancing measures, including lockdowns, and travel bans. All of South Asia’s governments have strictly rationed COVID-19 tests, thereby covering up the true extent of the pandemic. As of yesterday, India had reported 29,451 confirmed cases with 939 deaths. All of India has been under a lockdown since March 24. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi implemented this shutdown without warning and without any serious plan to provide basic necessities to the impoverished masses, who make up the vast majority of India’s population. The lockdown, which was initially slated to end on April 14, has since been extended a further 19 days through May 3. The Modi government is now preparing to restart the economy in line with demands from big business and investors to secure their profit interests. Last week, the manufacturing and farming sectors were allowed to start operating, but without any measures taken to ensure worker safety. The Home Ministry announced Friday that small retail shops outside “hotspots” and cities under quarantine could reopen. However, they will only be allowed to operate with half of their staff. Customers must maintain social distancing, and wear masks and gloves. The reckless and sudden imposition of the lockdown by the Modi government proved disastrous for hundreds of millions of working people and the rural poor. No mechanism was put in place to support the vast majority of workers in the so-called informal sector, who were left without wages and now face hunger and starvation. Modi is cynically exploiting the plight of these workers to justify his plan to reopen the economy.
Coronavirus: suicide experts warn of pandemic’s impact on mental health, with Hong Kong’s jobless, poor and elderly most at risk A leading Hong Kong mental health expert has warned that the city might be on the brink of a surge in suicides brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, director of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, is part of an international group of mental health experts who have sounded the alert on the pandemic’s potential psychological impact worldwide. Among those most at risk are workers who have lost their jobs, those facing severe financial hardship and elderly people who feel cooped up at home because of restrictions on movement during the crisis. Yip said prolonged restrictions and social-distancing measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus could have an effect on some people’s well-being. If urgent action was not taken to reach out to the vulnerable, he warned, Hong Kong could see a higher rate of suicide than during the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which also battered the economy. He is part of the recently formed International Covid-19 Suicide Prevention Research Collaboration, comprising 42 academics worldwide, who urged a comprehensive prevention strategy to deal with the psychological effects that might outlast the pandemic itself.
Japan to decide whether to extend state of emergency as early as Monday - broadcaster NHK – (Reuters) - Japan will formally decide as early as Monday whether to extend its nationwide state of emergency, public broadcaster NHK reported, as experts said current containment policies should be kept in place until the number of new infections fell further. The nationwide state of emergency is set to expire on May 6, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned citizens on Thursday to prepare for a “drawn-out battle” against the virus. The government is planning to extend the emergency for about a month, sources have told Reuters. Some countries are restarting business activity after closures and social distancing measures to contain the spread of the virus, even as Japan has seen far fewer infections and deaths than hot spots in the United States and Europe. The outbreak and slowdown in business activities is already darkening the outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy, sparking calls for more spending even after parliament approved an extra budget to fund a $1.1 trillion (£875 billion) stimulus package. Consumer prices in the capital Tokyo fell for the first time in three years in April and national factory activity slumped, data showed on Friday, increasing worries the coronavirus outbreak could tip the country back into deflation. The Japanese government has called for vigilance during the long Golden Week holiday - normally a peak travel period - that runs through May 6, calling on people to stay home and reduce contact with others. The government will make a formal decision on the state of emergency as soon as Monday after convening a meeting of experts on the virus, NHK said on Friday, without citing sources. At Friday’s meeting, the experts said it was desirable for Japan to keep its current framework of coronavirus containment policies until the number of new infections fell to a certain unspecified level, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura told reporters.
Ruby Princess cruise ship forced out of Australian waters with coronavirus stricken staff on board - The coronavirus-stricken Ruby Princess was forced out to sea by Australian authorities last Thursday afternoon, despite what New South Wales (NSW) Police Commissioner Mick Fuller described as “not a zero risk” of serious illness developing on board. Around half the crew were allowed to leave the ship earlier in the week and fly home. The remaining workers face another two weeks on board as the cruise liner makes its way from Port Kembla, south of Sydney, to Manila, where several of its sister ships are currently moored. It is not clear where the ship or its crew will go after the Philippines, but the company has made clear it still intends to use the Ruby Princess for cruises between Seattle and Alaska as early as July. Of the 567 workers who disembarked from the ship last week, 40 showing signs of the coronavirus were taken to local hotels for further quarantine under medical supervision. These workers will remain in isolation until they are deemed fit to fly. According to Fuller, the crew still on board have all tested negative for COVID-19. Some crew members have claimed on Facebook, however, that they have not received their results from the most recent round of testing. The fact that dozens of crew members were still too unwell or infectious to fly after five weeks of self-isolation strongly suggests that the coronavirus still presents a substantial threat to the workers on board. Whether these recent cases have been contracted from asymptomatic carriers or contaminated surfaces on board, there is no guarantee that more infections will not develop while the ship is at sea.
‘False Dawn’ Recovery Haunts Virus Survivors Who Fall Sick Again - It had been over a month since Mirabai Nicholson-McKellar was infected with the coronavirus, and the 35-year-old filmmaker thought she was on her way to recovery. Then the shortness of breath came back, followed by chest pains. A visit to the emergency room and a second test for Covid-19 gave another positive result. Just three days earlier, she’d been cleared by health authorities in Australia’s New South Wales state, and was allowed to end her home quarantine after going 72 hours without symptoms. “When is this going to end? I think about that constantly,” she said of the twists and turns in her health. “Am I still contagious? How do I know if I’m not contagious?” Her experience adds to a growing number of reports of patients appearing to have a reactivation of symptoms, testing positive again, or even potentially being reinfected. Such incidents don’t align with the generally accepted understanding of how virus infections work and spread. This so-called false-dawn phenomenon is puzzling health experts as they try to come to grips with the mysterious pathogen that emerged only five months ago. Solving the puzzle will inform a broad range of challenges, from the development of an effective vaccine to how soon governments may be able to safely end lockdowns and allow normal life to resume. More immediately, the situation is taking a personal toll, making the journey of recovery a complex and frustrating ordeal for some of the more than 1 million survivors of the pandemic. So far, there hasn’t been enough research to conclude why symptoms seem to re-emerge in some people, and whether they experience reinfection or if the virus persists for weeks. One possibility is that Covid-19 causes blood clots that may cause potentially dangerous complications unless treated with anticoagulant medications.
Coronavirus Eliminated in New Zealand Following Government Response - Five weeks after launching an aggressive nationwide lockdown to combat the coronavirus pandemic—coupled with one of the most robust economic relief packages of any country—New Zealand's government on Monday announced that the new coronavirus is currently "eliminated" in the nation.The country's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday that while cases are not at zero, new cases have been in the single digits for the past several days—an "incredible" statistic, said Ardern, as other countries face thousands of new cases per day."We have done what very few countries have been able to do," Ardern said last week as the country was preparing to move from a Level 4 restrictions to Level 3, allowing some businesses to reopen. "We have stopped a wave of devastation."One new case was reported Monday, as well as four "probable cases" and one new death."We've achieved our goal of elimination... That never meant zero but it does mean we know where our cases are coming from," Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said.As the country reduces restrictions to Level 3, businesses that reopen will be required to maintain physical distancing rules. Schools will reopen with limited capacity, and workers will still be encouraged to work from home if they are able to. Events such as weddings and funerals will only be able to take place with up to 10 people in attendance, and public buildings such as museums, libraries, and gyms will remain shuttered for the time being.New Zealand has confirmed a total of 1,469 cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, since the first case there was detected on February 28.In New Zealand, home to 4.8 million, the disease has infected about 30 in every 100,000 people and has killed 19 people—fewer than one in every 100,000 people.The numbers in the island nation contrast sharply with those in the U.S., where nearly one million people have been sickened—nearly 300 in every 100,000—and more than 50,000 people have died.Ardern has been credited with enforcing a strict lockdown even before the disease had claimed any lives in New Zealand. Two weeks after the first case was reported, the prime minister ordered anyone entering the country to self-quarantine for 14 days. Most businesses shut down on March 23, when there were 102 cases and no deaths, and the country began enforcing Level 4 restrictons—forbidding people to leave home except for outdoor exercise nearby—on March 25.Ardern's extreme measures were in line with the recommendations of top public health officials, including U.S. National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins, who said last month that the measures most effective at slowing the outbreak would likely be seen as "too drastic" by many.New Zealand has also been testing the public at one of the highest rates in the world, Ardern said Monday, administering nearly 124,000 tests in recent weeks with the capacity to complete 8,000 tests per day. The U.S. has increased its testing capacity in the past month, but public health experts say the severe lag in confronting the pandemic in the U.S. after the first case was reported there in January has made the disease difficult to contain.
Dozens Of Patients In Wuhan Have Developed 'Chronic' Coronavirus Infections - A few weeks ago, we reported on several Reddit threads where COVID-19 patients from around the world - many of them young men - shared their struggles with a virus that they just couldn't seem to shake. Some patients who were six or seven weeks post-confirmation (meaning they probably had contracted the virus two months earlier, or possibly even longer) complained of symptoms coming back in waves, while others complained that they were still testing positive for the virus weeks after their symptoms disappeared. Though rare, these cases have alarmed researchers who fear that some patients might become chronic carriers of the virus. And the scientists leading China's response to the outbreak are particularly concerned about dozens of apparently chronic patients in Hubei who still haven't cleared the virus, even as the region - which was bolted shut during the outbreak crisis - slowly reopens to the outside world. According to Chinese business newswire Caixin, more than 30 patients in Hubei Province have seemingly recovered from COVID-19, but continue to test positive, said Jiao Yahui, an inspector at the National Health Commission, in an April 24 interview with the state broadcaster. Typically, patients infected with COVID-19 will test negative on nucleic acid throat swabs roughly 20 days after detection. However, for a small number of patients, throat swabs will produce positive tests for more than 40 days. Some patients are still producing positive swabs, despite being infected in the first wave of patients. Of course, the existence of patients who still test positive raises the question of whether they are still infectious. It's certainly possible that these tests might be picking up errant pieces of genetic material leftover from the infection, but it's also possible that the virus could have burrowed deep enough to become chronic, though, as scientists say, that's not 'typical' behavior for a naturally occurring coronavirus. Hold that thought. Scientists say there's "little possibility" that humans can be lifelong carriers of this virus. But it's not impossible. Whatever the reality might be, infectious disease experts in China are recommending that these patients be kept in isolation in what we imagine has become a singularly hellish experience for these unfortunate patients. Whether this is evidence of chronic infection, or simply an extended process of "viral shedding", the issue has perplexed some of China's greatest virologists.
Antibiotic exposure can 'prime' single-resistant bacteria to become multidrug-resistant - Each year, antibiotic-resistant bacteria infect some 2.8 million people in the United States, killing more than 35,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Infections by multidrug-resistant -- or MDR -- bacteria, which are resistant to two or more antibiotics, are particularly difficult to treat. Scientists at the University of Washington and the University of Idaho have discovered just how readily MDR bacteria can emerge. In a paper published April 6 in Nature Ecology & Evolution, the researchers report that, for a bacterial pathogen already resistant to an antibiotic, prolonged exposure to that antibiotic not only boosted its ability to retain its resistance gene, but also made the pathogen more readily pick up and maintain resistance to a second antibiotic and become a MDR strain. The team's experiments indicate that prolonged exposure to one type of antibiotic essentially "primed" the bacteria. This priming effect made it more likely that the bacteria would acquire resistance to additional antibiotics, even in the absence of further antibiotic exposure, and helped the strain hold on to those antibiotic-resistance traits for generations. "Exposure to antibiotics appears to select indirectly for more stable antibiotic resistance systems," said Benjamin Kerr, a UW professor of biology and co-senior author on the paper. "A more stable system in a strain will increase the chances that it will acquire resistance to multiple antibiotics." Their findings also show how antibiotic exposure affects the evolutionary dynamics within bacteria.
Scientists Warn Worse Pandemics Are on the Way if We Don’t Protect Nature - A group of biodiversity experts warned that future pandemics are on the horizon if mankind does not stop its rapid destruction of nature.Writing an article published Monday by The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the authors put the responsibility for COVID-19 squarely on our shoulders."There is a single species that is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic – us. As with the climate and biodiversity crises, recent pandemics are a direct consequence of human activity – particularly our global financial and economic systems, based on a limited paradigm that prizes economic growth at any cost. We have a small window of opportunity, in overcoming the challenges of the current crisis, to avoid sowing the seeds of future ones," the authors wrote on IPBES. .The authors argue that government stimulus plans need to include sustainable and nature-positive initiatives."It may be politically expedient at this time to relax environmental standards and to prop up industries such as intensive agriculture, long-distance transportation such as the airlines, and fossil-fuel-dependent energy sectors, but doing so without requiring urgent and fundamental change, essentially subsidizes the emergence of future pandemics," the authors wrote.They also fault wanton greed for allowing microbes that lead to novel diseases to jump from animals to humans."Rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive farming, mining and infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species have created a 'perfect storm' for the spillover of diseases from wildlife to people," they wrote in their article.They warn that 1.7 million unidentified viruses known to infect people are estimated to exist in mammals and water birds. Any one of these may be more disruptive and lethal than COVID-19. With that in mind, the authors suggest three facets that should be considered for COVID-19-related stimulus plans. Countries should strengthen environmental regulations; adopt a 'One Health' approach to decision-making that recognizes complex interconnections among the health of people, animals, plants, and our shared environment; and prop up healthcare systems in the most vulnerable countries where resources are strained and underfunded.
Deadly Pathogen Alters Honey Bee Behavior to Gain Access to Foreign Hives, Researchers Find -- Honey bees guarding the entrances to their respective hives are twice as likely to allow access to virus-infected trespassers, suggesting that the pathogen is capable of altering the insect's behavior and physiology to boost its spread to neighboring colonies.Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV) is a widespread virus that has been linked with colony losses, such as the mysterious outbreak of honey bee Colony Collapse Disorder across the U.S. Publishing their work inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign determined that the virus is capable of changing certain host behaviors and physical traits, particularly in social contexts, of one of the world's most critical pollinators."The most important finding of our study is that IAPV infection increases the likelihood that infected bees are accepted by foreign colonies," said lead study author and professor of entomology Adam Dolezal. "Somehow, the infected bees are able to circumvent the guards of foreign colonies, which they shouldn't be able to do."IAPV is considered a "category of concern" and previous research has shown that honey bees infected with the virus are more likely to get lost when returning to their home hives.Observations showed that individuals infected with IAPV were just as mobile but engaged less in trophallaxis with home colony members, which protected their hive from viral infection. However, when a honey bee was placed at the entrance of a foreign hive, bees were more likely to engage through trophallaxis with guards – and those guards were then more likely to permit hive entrance to infected bees than healthy ones.Further analysis determined that the virus also changes the chemistry of hydrocarbons that coat the bees' exoskeletons – in essence changing how they smell – suggesting that the infected bees may also be "behaving in a way that is meant to appease the guards by engaging more in trophallaxus."The findings show that the virus is evolving in ways that enhance its ability to spread, which could be detrimental to honey bee colonies in the long-run. Human-induced environmental changes create conditions that make emerging diseases more likely – a problem that the study authors write is "likely to worsen as humans continue to move domesticated species around the world and adopt increasingly intense management practices."
Alarm over deaths of bees from rapidly spreading viral disease A viral disease that causes honey bees to suffer severe trembling, flightlessness and death within a week is spreading exponentially in Britain. Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV) was only recorded in Lincolnshire in 2007. A decade later, it was found in 39 of 47 English counties and six of eight Welsh counties, according to data collected from visits to more than 24,000 beekeepers. As well as struggling to fly, the afflicted bees develop shiny, hairless abdomens. Piles of dead individuals are found outside hives with whole colonies frequently wiped out by the disease. A team of scientists led by Prof Giles Budge of Newcastle University identified clusterings of the disease, with cases concentrated among apiaries run by professional beekeepers rather than amateur keepers. In the study, published in Nature Communications, scientists used data from 130,000 honey bee imports from 25 countries to show for the first time that the disease was nearly twice as likely in apiaries owned by beekeepers who imported honey bees. Professional beekeepers bring in honey bee queens to replenish their hives every few years. Another way in which commercial beekeeping could be contributing to the spread of the disease is because they tend to manage large colonies, and the virus appears to be rapidly transmitted in densely populated hives. But Budge said it was not clear that the disease was imported via queens and it was “unfair” to claim the disease was caused by industrial beekeeping. “The bee farmers of this country tend to be quite small-scale. A standard bee farmer might have 100 to 200 colonies. In the States, they have up to 10,000. Even in Germany there will be huge-scale beekeeping going on,” he said. According to Budge, professional beekeepers may run into problems in Britain because they are very successful at bringing bees through the winter and building up colonies in spring to take advantage of early flowers such as oilseed rape. If the weather then turns wet, these large colonies are then confined to a hive. “You can’t do social distancing in a hive as easily but you can manage it by increasing the space in there,” said Budge.
'Murder hornets' in Washington state threaten bees and whip up media swarm -Researchers and citizens in Washington state are on a careful hunt for invasive “murder hornets”, after the insect made its first appearance in the US. The Asian giant hornet is the world’s largest and can kill humans. But it is most dangerous for the European honeybee, which is defenseless in the face of the hornet’s spiky mandibles, long stinger and potent venom. Washington state verified four reports of Asian giant hornets in two north-western cities in December. The species becomes more active in April, prompting local officials to invite the public to help beekeepers by creating their own hornet traps. “It’s a shockingly large hornet,” Todd Murray, Washington State University Extension entomologist and invasive species specialist, said in a statement. “It’s a health hazard, and more importantly, a significant predator of honeybees.” Murray said it was important for people to learn to recognize the insect now, while the population is small and still new to the region. “We need to teach people how to recognize and identify this hornet while populations are small,” he said, “so that we can eradicate it while we still have a chance.” The hornets are about the size of an adult thumb, with a yellow and orange head. They are most destructive in the late summer and early fall. One telltale sign they have visited a hive is the remains of decapitated bees. Some researchers refer to the insect as a “murder hornet”, according to a New York Times story published on Saturday. In Japan, up to 50 people a year die after being stung, though the hornet is usually only aggressive to humans if it is disturbed.
Detroit air pollution levels drop amid coronavirus shutdown - — Research indicates that air pollution is worsening the coronavirus pandemic in cities like Detroit, which has long struggled with poor air quality due to the combined presence of heavy industry, coal-fired power plants and converging transportation corridors.But the pandemic lockdowns are also, ironically, helping to clean the air. Preliminary state data indicates that business and travel restrictions have resulted in a low to moderate drop in two types of toxic emissions commonly associated with fuel combustion.Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has decreased about 10 percent and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has dropped 30 percent over the past month compared to a year ago, say pollution regulators with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE).“With traffic not being present and some of these sources not operating, we are seeing obvious practical impact from that,” said Mary Ann Dolehanty, EGLE air quality division director.Unfortunately, cleaner air comes too late for the 1,580 people in Wayne County who have already died of COVID-19 as of April 26. Of that number, 922 are in Detroit, the pandemic’s epicenter in Michigan. The city’s predominantly African American population was already at higher risk for developing severe symptoms due to elevated rates of diabetes and hypertension — one of several reasons being cited for the drastic toll COVID-19 is having there. Public health experts believe Detroit’s lower air quality is also contributing to the lethal impact. Harvard University researchers who studied the link between exposure to PM2.5 and the mortality risk of COVID-19 found that even a small increase in long-term exposure to particulate soot leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate.The nationwide study, which is awaiting peer review, found that someone who lives for decades in a county with high PM2.5 levels is 15 percent more likely to die from COVID-19 than someone who lives in a region with just one microgram per-cubic-meter less of such pollution.A growing body of European research is also identifying strong c orrelations between COVID-19 fatality rates and high levels of NO2 in parts of Spain, France and Germany.
Coronavirus closures cause big drop in Georgia pollution - Coronavirus closures are affecting the air quality here in Georgia, even showing a big drop in air pollution levels. You might be shocked when you check out this jaw-dropping image CBS46 obtained from NASA. You see all of those red and purple blobs meaning high pollution, that's a satellite image of the pollutant nitrogen dioxide. It's of a five year average period: March 15th through April 15, ending in 2019. But, check out how clear the image looks in the same period for 2020 during the current lock-down. "I don't necessarily see this decrease in pollution as a positive thing because this decrease really represents heartache on the ground," said NASA scientist and Georgia Tech grad Dr. Bryan Duncan. The lockdown might be bad for Georgia’s economy, but he says it’s good for the lungs. "A decrease in air pollution of 40 percent of just this one pollutant, nitrogen dioxide, is a very positive thing because breathing in nitrogen dioxide actually diminishes your lung capacity," Duncan said. The American Lung Association put out a “State of the Air Report Card” showing average to below average marks for the ozone for Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. But all four counties received a “B” for 24 hour particle pollution and passing grades for annual particle pollution.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Set for Record Decline Due to Coronavirus Lockdowns -- The decline in energy demand driven by coronavirus lockdowns will trigger a record fall in greenhouse gas emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday.The Paris-based agency predicted a drop of eight percent, almost six times the last record, set in 2009 and triggered by the global financial crisis. It is also twice as steep as all emissions declines since World War II combined. However, the agency cautioned that this decline on its own is not a solution to the climate crisis."Resulting from premature deaths and economic trauma around the world, the historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer," IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol said in a press release. "And if the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis is anything to go by, we are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve."Birol did note, however, that a rebound in emissions is not inevitable, as he added his voice to the growing global call for a green recovery process."[G]overnments can learn from [the post-2008] experience by putting clean energy technologies – renewables, efficiency, batteries, hydrogen and carbon capture – at the heart of their plans for economic recovery," he said. "Investing in those areas can create jobs, make economies more competitive and steer the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future."The IEA's Global Energy Review is based on more than 100 days of data so far this year. It predicts that global energy demand will fall by six percent in 2020, the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India and seven times the 2008 decline. All major fossil fuels have taken a beating so far and are expected to decline further.
- Coal demand fell by almost eight percent in the first quarter of 2020 and could fall eight percent for the whole year.
- Oil declined by almost five percent in the first quarter and could fall by nine percent for the year.
- Natural gas declined by two percent so far and is expected to fall by five percent for the year, The Guardian reported. While gas has been less impacted than oil and coal, that would still be its steepest decline since it became a widely-used energy source in the mid-20th century.
Only renewable energy sources saw growth, and are expected to continue to grow throughout the year. This is because wind turbines and solar panels cost little to operate, so when electricity demand declines, they get priority on the grid, The New York Times explained. This means low carbon energy sources are expected to continue moving in the direction that began in 2019, when they overtook coal as the world's leading source of electricity for the first time in 50 years. By the end of 2020, they should account for 40 percent of the world's electricity. "This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today's unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use," Birol said. "It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before." The question for climate advocates is whether the decline in emissions can be sustained. This is a tall order. The United Nations has estimated that emissions need to decline by around eight percent per year through 2030 in order to keep temperatures "well below" two degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels, The New York Times reported.
Cleaner Air in Europe Has Resulted in 11,000 Fewer Deaths, New Study Says - A new study has shown that drops in nitrogen dioxide in the air and fine particulate matter as coal and oil consumption have plummeted over the last month have saved an estimated 11,000 lives across Europe. The range may be as low as 7,000, but as high as 21,000 deaths avoided.The study found that steep declines in vehicular congestion and emissions from industrial activities has led to a bevy of positive health impacts, including 1.3 million fewer sick days for workers, 6,000 fewer children developing asthma, 1,900 emergency room visits avoided and 600 fewer preterm births in Europe, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), as The Guardian reported.The researchers found that stay-at-home orders across Europe to slow down the spread of the coronavirus have led to a 40 percent drop in nitrogen dioxide in the air and a 10 percent drop in particle pollution, as Business Green reported.These types of pollution weaken the immune system, heart function and the respiratory system. They are responsible for an estimated 470,000 deaths in Europe each year, according to The Guardian.Measures to combat the pandemic have resulted in "unprecedentedly dramatic reductions in coal and oil burning associated with air pollution in Europe," explained CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, as Business Green reported. "This reduction in pollution has helped alleviate pressure on the health care system during this crisis. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the tremendous benefits for public health and quality of life that could be achieved by rapidly reducing fossil fuels in a sustained and sustainable way."The statistical model the researchers created looked at data for air quality, weather conditions, emissions, population and disease prevalence. Germany ranked first with an estimated 2,083 deaths avoided followed by the UK (1,752), Italy (1,490), France (1,230) and Spain (1,083), according to The Guardian.The research also looked at the ailments that were avoided. They found that 40 percent of the reductions in death were related to heart conditions, 17 percent to lung disease, and 13 percent from strokes and cancer, as The Guardian reported.
EPA weakens mercury standards, could put pollution controls at risk - The Environmental Protection Agency recently announced a change that removes the legal foundation for regulations on mercury and other toxins emitted from coal- and oil-fired power plants. The change, some experts worry, might set a precedent for rolling back pollution standards that have improved air quality in the Great Lakes area. Announced April 16, the change recalculates the cost-benefit analysis for the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, formed under the Obama administration in 2012. Under the new analysis, the EPA says the standards — which have reduced mercury emissions by 87% nationwide since 2011 — are no longer "appropriate or necessary." The change doesn’t revoke the mercury regulation, but experts say it undermines the legal foundation for it. It's a move they worry could put the regulation at risk, should it be challenged. Although weakened, the mercury regulation remains in place, so there likely won't be any short-term impacts in emissions unless the rule itself is rolled back, McCabe said. "Under this action, no more mercury will be emitted into the air than before," EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement. "This is another example of the EPA, under the Trump Administration, following the law while making reasonable regulatory decisions that are fully protective of the public health and environment.” The issue centers on conflicting opinions on how to balance the cost of industry complying with the regulation versus the health and financial benefits of restricting mercury emissions. Under the Clean Air Act, the standards require coal- and oil-fired power plants to install pollution control technology for limiting mercury emissions. These controls were expensive, costing the industry as much as $9.6 billion a year to instate them. "(With certain mercury controls) you're also going to capture particulate matter and other types of pollutants. That's a good thing," McCabe said. "Those benefits can be quantified in terms of longer lives and less healthcare costs ... they're real, and they matter to people and they matter to the economy." Wheeler, however, characterizes the inclusion of these "co-benefits" as a flaw. The EPA's new cost-benefit analysis for this rule only considers the direct benefits of reducing mercury emissions. And, as the cost for power plants to comply with the mercury standards is much higher than these newly estimated benefits, the EPA determined the regulation was neither appropriate or necessary.
'Bogus analysis': Trump-appointed EPA advisers criticize study linking air pollution and coronavirus deaths --Trump administration appointees to key panels that advise the Environmental Protection Agency on science are criticizing a study that concludes areas with higher levels of air pollution will experience higher death rates from the coronavirus.The study, from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, has led to increased public pressure on the EPA in recent weeks, threatening the agency's deregulatory agenda on air pollution rules.The advisers to the Trump administration, including the chair of the committee advising the agency on air pollution, say they are skeptical of the Harvard study’s methodology and conclusions. Those same appointees have previously raised questions about the strength of connections between fine particle pollution and health effects.The Harvard study hasn’t been peer reviewed yet, but it has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine for review. “To me, this whole thing is a bogus piece of analysis,” said Tony Cox, who chairs the EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee. "It was rushed out without being properly vetted. It’s technically unsound. It has sensational policy implications, none of which are trustworthy." “I would have zero confidence in the published results of this study because its interpretation, design, and analysis are fundamentally flawed,” Cox, a risk analyst and president of Cox Associates, said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. Francesca Dominici, a senior author on the study, said the criticisms are inaccurate and invalid, and pointed to multiple other preliminary studies from researchers around the globe connecting long-term exposure to air pollution and increased risks from the virus. The criticism comes as the EPA has convened a “rapid review” science advisory panel to inform the agency as it improves its ability to address the environmental and human health effects of COVID-19..
Study: Gas-powered appliances may be hazardous for your health - Stay-at-home orders and other social distancing measures have dramatically improved outdoor air quality in cities around the world, but a new study published Tuesday shows that indoor air quality may pose acute risks of its own — especially now that the novel coronavirus has us all spending so much time at home.The UCLA Fielding School of Public Health study found that after just an hour of using a gas-fired stove or oven, levels of nitrogen dioxide — one of a group of gases that contribute to smog formation and are considered harmful to human health — inside California homes reached levels that exceeded both state and national ambient air-quality standards. The compromised indoor air quality caused by gas-powered furnaces, stoves, and water heaters could increase the likelihood of respiratory and cardiovascular disease and premature death, according to the study.“The goal of this report is to provide information to Californians on how pollution from gas-fired appliances affects the air they breathe, and the related health effects,” Yifang Zhu, the study’s lead researcher, said in a statement. “California’s state agencies often focus on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts, but there has been much less focus on how fossil fuel use in household appliances can adversely impact indoor air quality and public health.”
Covanta Says It Has Stopped Accepting Waste That Caused a ‘Purple Plume’ Over Newark -- A waste management company rejected a new attack from residents of Newark’s Ironbound district who say their health is threatened by air pollution from a trash incinerator, and that the state Department of Environmental Protection isn’t doing enough to stop it. Advocates for the residents wrote to DEP and the Attorney General’s Office on Tuesday, complaining that the Essex County Resource Recovery Facility, operated by Covanta, emitted a “purple plume” on April 7. They claimed the incident was the latest of “hundreds” of air-permit violations by the plant in recent years. Covanta acknowledged the existence of the plume from its smokestack for about 30 minutes on April 7, and confirmed that it was caused by iodine in the waste from an unnamed manufacturing company, but not from any medical waste that critics suspected. It said the resulting presence of the chemical in air around the incinerator was well below the level at which it could be a respiratory irritant. Company spokesman James Regan said the company is “very confident” that it has identified the source of the iodine, and is no longer accepting the waste that caused the problem. Given that the chemical may also be used by other industries such as commercial printing or food manufacturing, Covanta is now looking for other sources in its waste stream “to ensure waste that may contain iodine does not come to the facility,” he said.
Tumbleweed tornado - Matt M. McKnight pulled over on Washington State Route 240 to film this amazing yet menacing "tumbleweed tornado".
Increasing green spaces in cities could prevent many premature deaths every year - Increasing the tree canopy to 30% of land area in the city of Philadelphia (United States) could prevent over 400 premature deaths across the city every year and yield an estimated annual economic benefit of almost four billion dollars. This is the conclusion of a study published in the journal The Lancet Planetary Health, which has, for the first time, analysed the impact of increasing green spaces on premature mortality in an entire city. The project was led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by "la Caixa" Foundation, and the United States Forest Service. Research has shown that green spaces in urban settings are associated with benefits for the physical and mental health of the city's residents. A recent systematic review and meta-analysis carried out by ISGlobal, the University of Colorado and the World Health Organization (WHO) concluded that residential green spaces can protect against premature all-cause mortality. The meta-analysis, which included nine longitudinal studies involving over eight million people in seven different countries, found a significant association between an increase in green space around homes and a reduction in premature mortality.. The team studied three different possible scenarios for the city of Philadelphia for 2025. The most ambitious was based on the current goal as set by the City Council of an increase in tree coverage to 30% of land area in each of the city's neighbourhoods (current coverage is 20% for the city as a whole). The other two scenarios were less ambitious. Data on the existing canopy was obtained from aerial and satellite imagery, which allowed the researchers to measure the tree coverage by viewing the crown, leaves, branches and stems from above. The results of the analysis showed that if Philadelphia achieves its goal of increasing tree coverage to 30% of the city by 2025, 403 premature adult deaths would be prevented each year, representing 3% of the city's annual mortality. The two more moderate scenarios were also associated with significant reductions in annual mortality: a 5% and 10% increase in tree canopy could result in an annual reduction of 271 and 376 deaths, respectively.
‘We Need to Hear These Poor Trees Scream’: Unchecked Global Warming Means Big Trouble for Forests -Tim Brodribb has been measuring all the different ways global warming kills trees for the past 20 years. With a microphone, he says, you can hear them take their last labored breaths. During blistering heat waves and droughts, air bubbles invade their delicate, watery veins, cracking them open with an audible pop. And special cameras can film the moment their drying leaves split open in a lightning bolt pattern, disrupting photosynthesis."We really need to be able to hear these poor trees scream. These are living things that are suffering. We need to listen to them," said Brodribb, a plant physiologist at the University of Tasmania who led a recent study that helps identify exactly when, where and how trees succumb to heat and dryness. The study, published April 17 in the journal Science, reviewed the last 10 years of research on tree mortality, concluding that forests are in big trouble if global warming continues at the present pace. Most trees alive today won't be able to survive in the climate expected in 40 years, Brodribb said. The negative impacts of warming and drying are already outpacing the fertilization benefits of increased carbon dioxide.Trees and forests can be compared with corals and reefs, he said. Both are slow-growing and long-lived systems that can't easily move or adapt in a short time to rapid warming and both have relatively inflexible damage thresholds. For corals, a global tipping point was reached from 2014 to 2016. In record-warm oceans, reefs around the world bleached and died.The detailed new information and modeling on how water stress kills trees suggests there is a similar drought threshold for tree mortality, beyond which forests could also perish on a global scale, he said. "Nobody predicted the coral bleaching scenario. If a similar thing evolves with forests, that is pretty catastrophic," he said. "We're at a point where we can see the process, we can predict it. It's time to start making some noise about it. We can't afford to sit on our hands."
Six-year statute of limitations elapses with no criminal indictments by Flint Water Prosecution Team - Saturday marked six years since the man-made health disaster hit the city of Flint, Michigan, which was set into motion by state officials at the highest levels and abetted by lower level functionaries in federal, state and local agencies responsible for the safety of drinking water. Not a single official has been convicted or served a single day of prison time for the lead poisoning of the population of almost 100,000 and one of the worst outbreaks of Legionnaire’s disease in US history, likely causing the deaths of more than 100 people. Solicitor General Fadwa Hammoud and Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy, who head the Michigan Attorney General’s Office Flint Water Prosecution Team, issued a statement on April 17 that the prosecutions “remain on track.” They asserted "April 25, 2014, is a significant date in the history of the Flint Water Crisis. However, we want to correct the misconception that April 25, 2020 is the deadline to bring charges against those who may be criminally liable.” This contradicts the statement they themselves made last June at a Flint public meeting that the team had only nine months to file new charges due to the six-year statute of limitations. The Democratic Attorney General’s Office was compelled to call that meeting weeks after dropping the charges on the remaining eight of the 15 defendants charged with crimes due to supposedly weak evidence. Flint residents were outraged that after more than five years and tens of million of dollars, there remained no criminal prosecutions for the poisoning of their water. Now it is six years, and the claim that “we are delivering on our commitment to the people of Flint” remains a chimera.
Kavanaugh and Roberts Side with Liberals to Hand Environmentalists Huge Win; Alito Is Not Amused -Environmentalists scored a significant victory in the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday with help from some unusual suspects.In a 6-3 opinion authored by Justice Stephen Breyer, two of the court’s conservatives–Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh–joined with the four-member liberal minority in order to strengthen a key provision of the Clean Water Act (CWA) of 1972.Stylized as County of Maui v. Hawaii Wildlife Fund, the case stems from a lawsuit filed by “several environmental groups” in 2012 which alleged that Maui’s use of a wastewater reclamation facility ran afoul of the CWA by pumping roughly four million gallons of treated wastewater into the Pacific Ocean every day without a permit.The permitting requirement is considered the heart and soul of the CWA’s overall regulatory effectiveness.Under the CWA, a permit is required for the “discharge of any pollutant” into U.S. waters–which is defined as “any addition of any pollutant to navigable waters from any point source [or] any addition of any pollutant to the waters of the contiguous zone or the ocean from any point source other than a vessel or other floating craft.”The term “pollutant” is defined broadly by the nation’s longstanding environmental statute and also specifically includes “solid” and “municipal…waste discharged into water.”The plaintiff environmental groups claimed that Maui’s disposal of wastewater via injection wells, which are “essentially long pipes,” necessitated a permit under CWA § 404.“Maui’s wastewater reclamation facility collects sewage from the surrounding area, partially treats it, and each day pumps around 4 million gallons of treated water into the ground through four wells,” the majority opinion notes. “This effluent the travels about a half mile through groundwater, to the Pacific Ocean.” Kavanaugh’s concurrence clearly sums up the basic issue: The question in this case is whether the County of Maui needs a permit for its Lahaina Wastewater Reclamation Facility. No one disputes that pollutants originated at Maui’s wastewater facility (a point source), and no one disputes that the pollutants ended up in the Pacific Ocean (a navigable water). Maui contends, however, that it does not need a permit. Maui says that the pollutants did not come “from” the Lahaina facility because the pollutants traveled through groundwater before reaching the ocean.
China could have choked off the Mekong and aggravated a drought, study shows - China's upstream activities along the Mekong River have long been contentious — but a recent study has sparked fresh scrutiny over its dam-building exercises, reigniting warnings that millions of livelihoods could be destroyed. A U.S.-government funded study by research and consulting firm, Eyes on Earth, found that Chinese dams are holding back large amounts of water upstream on the Mekong, which exacerbated a severe drought in the Southeast Asian countries downstream last year. China dismissed the scientific report as "groundless." The 4,350 kilometer (2,700 mile) Mekong River runs through six countries. Starting from China — where it is called the Lancang River — it flows past countries like Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, before emptying into the South China Sea via Vietnam. It is the lifeblood of these Southeast Asian countries and supports the livelihood of nearly 200 million people there who depend largely on farming and fishing. China built its first dam on the upper Mekong in the 1990s and currently runs 11 dams along the river. The country has plans to build more dams, which are used to generate hydropower. Some of those dams have compounded the alteration of the river's natural flow, resulting in the Lower Mekong recording "some of its lowest river levels ever throughout most of the year," said the Eyes on Earth study. The report was published by the UN-backed Sustainable Infrastructure Partnership, and the Lower Mekong Initiative — a multinational partnership of the U.S. with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. According to the study, which used data from 1992 to 2019, satellite measurements of "surface wetness" in China's Yunnan province suggest the region actually had slightly above-average combined rainfall and snowmelt from May to October 2019. But water levels measured downstream along the Thai-Lao border were at times lower than they should have been, according to Alan Basist and Claude Williams, who authored the report. This points to China holding back dam waters while lower Mekong countries experienced drought that impacted rice production and fisheries, threatening food security for the region. "China's dam management is causing erratic and devastating changes in water levels down stream," according to Washington-based security think tank, Stimson Center. "Unexpected dam releases caused rapid rises in river level that have devastated communities downstream, causing millions in damage shocking the river's ecological processes," according to a report dated April 13.
Beavers Could Help in Adapting to Climate Change - Beavers often get a bad rap for cutting down trees and building unwanted ponds on private property. But Jen Vanderhoof of Washington State's King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks wants to help redeem this hard-working rodent's reputation. "We're very obviously concerned about climate change, and I feel like beavers could help us," she said. In the Northwest, warming temperatures and earlier snowmelt could cause water shortages in the summer. But Vanderhoof said that after beavers build a dam, "not only do you have more water being stored on the surface, but it's also filtering down into the groundwater, and so you're storing more water both above and below the surface that way." Beaver ponds can also help slow water down as it flows through a watershed. That can help prevent erosion and reduce flooding after heavy precipitation. Vanderhoof said the wet landscapes that beavers create can even help control wildfires. "They are basically creating natural fire breaks," she said. So she helps people find ways to manage beavers on their properties without killing or trapping them. And she said in some areas, introducing beavers can provide important climate benefits. "They've got it all figured out," she said. "If we can just figure out how to work with them a little bit better."
Seafloor Discovery Shows The Ocean’s Undergoing a Change Not Seen in 10,000 Years --Changes in ocean circulation may have caused a shift in Atlantic Ocean ecosystems not seen for the past 10,000 years, new analysis of deep-sea fossils has revealed. This is the striking finding of a new study led by a research group I am part of at UCL, funded by the ATLAS project and published in the journalGeophysical Research Letters. The shift has likely already led to political tensions as fish migrate to colder waters. The climate has been quite stable over the 12,000 years or so since the end of the last Ice Age, a period known as the Holocene. It is thought that this stability is what allowed human civilisation to really get going. In the ocean, the major currents are also thought to have been relatively stable during the Holocene. These currents have natural cycles, which affect where marine organisms can be found, including plankton, fish, seabirds and whales. Yet climate change in the ocean is becoming apparent. Tropical coral reefs are bleaching, the oceans becoming more acidic as they absorb carbon from the atmosphere, and species like herring or mackerel are moving towards the poles. One of the simplest ways of working out what the ocean was like in the past is to count the different species of tiny fossil plankton that can be found in such sediments. Different species like to live in different conditions. We looked at a type called foraminifera, which have shells of calcium carbonate. Identifying them is easy to do using a microscope and small paintbrush, which we use when handling the fossils so they don't get crushed. To get our fossil samples we took cores of the sediment, which involves sending long plastic tubes to the bottom of the ocean and pushing them into the mud. When pulled out again, we were left with a tube full of sediment that can be washed and sieved to find fossils. A recent global study showed that modern foraminifera distributions are different to the start of the industrial era. Climate change is clearly already having an impact.Similarly, the view that modern ocean currents are like those of the past couple of thousand years was challenged by our work in 2018, which showed that the overturning "conveyor belt" circulation was at its weakest for 1,500 years. Our new work builds on this picture and suggests that modern North Atlantic surface circulation is different to anything seen in the past 10,000 years – almost the whole Holocene.
As Sea Levels Rise, Will Drinking Water Supplies Be at Risk? - At the Delaware Memorial Bridge, about 35 miles southwest of Philadelphia, the tidal waters of the Delaware River estuary push upstream with every incoming tide but are opposed by the river’s downstream flow. For years, this balance has kept salty water well away from intakes that supply drinking water to millions of people in Philadelphia and southern New Jersey. With the so-called salt front in its normal range, some 40 miles downstream from the intakes, any threat to the region’s water supply has seemed distant. But the combination of sea level rise and the expectation of reduced downstream flow as a result of climate change-related droughts have raised new fears that the region’s biggest source of drinking water could at some point become contaminated with seawater. Other regions around the U.S. and the world, from Florida to Bangladesh, are facing similar threats. . Planners are asking whether they should be ready, during periods of low flow, to release more water from upstream reservoirs to sustain the volume of water that keeps downstream pressure on the salt front. Other possible options include building desalination plants, adding storage in new or existing reservoirs, curbing water consumption by industrial users such as nuclear power plants, or even moving drinking intakes farther upstream — an expensive alternative of last resort. Concern about the Delaware River’s salt front is mirrored in other coastal areas, such as the Savannah River between Georgia and South Carolina, where an advancing salt front is threatening drinking water intakes as well as freshwater wetlands. Researchers from the University of South Carolina modeled the effects of 1 foot and 2 feet of sea level rise on salt concentrations over about 40 miles of the river’s estuary, starting at the city of Savannah, and found that those sea level increases would threaten drinking water intakes as well as natural systems. In Florida, seawater is moving rapidly inland along coastal rivers as sea level rises and water is withdrawn from the rivers at an “excessive” rate, according to researchers at Florida State University. As long ago as 2007, the scientists found that about half of the water planners they contacted were predicting that a sea level rise of 6 to 18 inches over the coming 50 years would likely pose a threat to some of their wells. “The ‘salt front’ of the tidal saltwater wedge in coastal rivers will move further upstream with the potential to affect both surface water intakes and well fields that are recharged with river water,” they said.
Microplastics inhibit a hermit crab’s ability to choose shell - Hermit crabs are pros when it comes to moving house. As soon as they outgrow a shell, they scope out new options and upgrade to a bigger size. They have this down to a fine art, with entire groups of crabs lining up from biggest to smallest and waiting till the right moment to exit their too-small shell and beeline for the bigger one. Needless to say, this behavior is essential to their survival. Crabs are vulnerable without their shells and they're always growing.But plastic debris is wreaking havoc with their ability to choose new shells, and it goes beyond mistaking plastic containers for shells, which Melissa wrote about several months ago. New research from Queen's University in Belfast, Ireland, has discovered that exposure to microplastic particles in the water actually inhibits a crab's ability to assess the potential of a new shell. As study co-author Dr. Gareth Arnott explained, "The striking thing in this study was when [we offered them a better shell], lots of the crabs that had been exposed to the microplastics didn’t make the optimal decision to take [it]."The study, published in Biology Letters, describes the research process. Two groups of female crabs were placed in two separate tanks, one with 29 and one with 35. Both tanks were filled with seawater and seaweed, but one contained 4mm-diameter polyethylene beads. The crabs remained in the water for five days, then were removed, taken out of their shells, and given new shells to move into – except that these were not shells that the crabs would've chosen themselves, "about half the ideal weight for each crab." Two hours later the crabs were presented with new shells of suitable size. The researchers were surprised by their observations:"The team found that 25 of the crabs who had not been exposed to the microplastics explored the optimal-sized shells, with 21 of the crabs – 60 percent – taking up residence in them. By contrast, crabs that had been exposed to microplastics took longer to begin such exploration and far fewer did so: just 10 made contact with the optimal-sized shells and only nine – 31 percent of the group – moved home."
Big Plastic Asks Congress for $1 Billion Coronavirus Bailout --THE PLASTIC INDUSTRY is asking Congress for $1 billion to bail out plastic recycling during the coronavirus crisis. “Recycling is an essential service and consumers are demanding products with more recycled content,” an alliance of industry groups that included Dow, the American Chemistry Council, Berry Global Group Inc., and the Plastics Industry Association wrote in an April 16 letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other House members. “In order to meet the demands of this crisis, we need investment now.”The companies and industry trade groups seeking the money are calling themselves the Recover Coalition, a reference to the Recover Act, a bill introduced in the House in November that calls for allocating $500 million to recycling infrastructure over five years. In their letter, which was first reported in Plastics News, members of the coalition “implore” the House members to include the Recover bill “in any infrastructure package Congress considers either in response to the COVID-19 pandemic or separately” and to double the original funding request, noting that “We feel the time and need is right to seek a program of $1 billion.”But others feel that the middle of a deadly pandemic, when millions of people don’t have enough money to pay rent and eat, is not the right time for the plastics industry to seek a government bailout. “Having multinational companies with their tin cups out asking for taxpayer dollars at this moment in time is wrong,” said Judith Enck, founder of the environmental group Beyond Plastics. “We need the federal spending to go to things like more testing, contact tracing, investments in clean energy — and not to attempts to prop up the feeble plastics recycling infrastructure.”It’s worth noting that the companies now seeking additional taxpayer dollars to fund recycling already have hundreds of billions at their disposal to pay for the processing of the products they create. The 223 companies that belong to and fund the American Chemistry Council and the Recycling Partnership — both of which signed the letter — include 60 publicly held companies with a combined revenue of $2.7 trillion and net profit of $210 billion.
Record Ozone Hole Over the Arctic Has Closed - An unusual phenomenon happened in March and April when an enormous hole in the ozone layer formed over the Arctic. Last week, though, scientists tracking the hole noticed that it has closed, as CNN reported.Unlike the infamous hole in the ozone over Antarctica, which was caused by overuse of now illegal chemicals containing chlorofluorocarbons, the hole in the Arctic was caused by a combination of factors, including low Arctic temperatures, sunlight, pollutants and a particularly strong polar vortex, according to the Copernicus' Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), as CNN reported."These two are really different animals," said Paul Newman, the chief scientist in the Earth Sciences Division at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, as Mashable reported. "This [Arctic ozone hole] is not comparable to the Antarctic ozone hole. If this was happening over the Antarctic we would be shouting for joy."The hole over Antarctica opens up every year from August until October. However, it has improved dramatically since ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons were banned in the 1994 Montreal Protocol. Last year, the Antarctic ozone hole was at its smallest since it was first discovered, as CNN reported. While the COVID-19 lockdowns have improved air quality around the world and helped wildlife, the drops in pollution did not cause the ozone hole to close up."COVID19 and the associated lockdowns probably had nothing to do with this," CAMS said on Twitter. "It's been driven by an unusually strong and long-lived polar vortex, and isn't related to air quality changes."The ozone layer, which sits between 9 and 22 miles from the earth's surface, shields the planet from the sun's damaging ultraviolet radiation. The hole above the Arctic would have only posed a threat to humans if it had traveled or expanded farther south, as Euronews reported."It's unusual but not unexpected," said Newman, of the recent Arctic ozone hole, to Mashable. "It's unusual in that we only have events like this about once per decade."
Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began -This year is on course to be the world’s hottest since measurements began, according to meteorologists, who estimate there is a 50% to 75% chance that 2020 will break the record set four years ago.Although the coronavirus lockdown has temporarily cleared the skies, it has done nothing to cool the climate, which needs deeper, longer-term measures, the scientists say.Heat records have been broken from the Antarctic to Greenland since January, which has surprised many scientists because this is not an El Niño year, the phenomenon usually associated with high temperatures.The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculates there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began. The US agency said trends were closely tracking the current record of 2016, when temperatures soared early in the year due to an unusually intense El Niño and then came down.The US agency said there was a 99.9% likelihood that 2020 will be one of the top five years for temperatures on record. A separate calculation by Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found a 60% chance this year will set a record.The Met Office is more cautious, estimating a 50% likelihood that 2020 will set a new record, though the UK institution says this year will extend the run of warm years since 2015, which is the hottest period on record. Abnormal weather is increasingly the norm as temperature records fall year after year, and month after month.This January was the hottest on record, leaving many Arctic nations without snow in their capital cities. In February, a research base in the Antarcticregistered a temperature of more than 20C (68F) for the first time on the southern continent. At the other end of the world Qaanaaq, in Greenland, set an April record of 6C on Sunday.In the first quarter, the heating was most pronounced in eastern Europe and Asia, where temperatures were 3C above average. In recent weeks, large parts of the US have sweltered. Last Friday, downtown Los Angeles hit an April high of 34C, according to the National Weather Service. Western Australia has also experienced record heat. The daily maximum UK temperature for April so far is 3.1C above average, with records set in Cornwall, Dyfed and Gwynedd. Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, said global warming was nudging closer to 1.2C above pre-industrial levels. He said his online tracker showed a relatively conservative level of 1.14C of warming due to gaps in the data, but that this could rise to 1.17C or higher once the latest figures were incorporated.
Why 'Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks' Could Drive Temperatures Even Higher - Yale E360 - The scientists are warning that past climate models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not fully reflected the scale of the warming that lies ahead as carbon sinks die. These revelations are coming from three areas of research:
- Studies such as Gatti’s in the Amazon, showing forests turning from sinks to sources of CO2;
- A new generation of climate models that incorporate these findings into future projections of climate change, and whose early outputs are just emerging;
- Recent revelations that ecosystems are releasing rising volumes of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas and of vital importance for temperatures in the next couple of decades.
The extra emissions, known as carbon-cycle feedbacks, could already be making the prospect of keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius — the target agreed to in the Paris climate accord in 2015 — all but impossible. The new modeling is likely to result in more pessimistic projections in the next scientific assessment from the IPCC, which is due — coronavirus-permitting — in April 2021.Our planet’s land and oceans currently take up about half of all the CO2 we put into the atmosphere. The gas dissolves in seawater and is absorbed by growing plants. Without these “carbon sinks,” warming to date would have been twice as great. We would already have exceeded the 2-degree target. But the question now is whether the take-up will remain as it is, or diminish. That depends on how ecosystems respond to the extra gas in the air. This response takes two competing forms. First, the extra CO2 speeds up plant growth. This fertilization effect means that forests absorb more CO2 as they grow, slowing the build-up in the air. Good news.But the bad news is that the higher temperatures, also brought about by the added CO2, are pulling in the other direction, reducing nature’s ability to soak up CO2. This happens because warmer ocean waters dissolve less CO2, while soils release more of the gas and some forests suffer heat stress and die or catch fire.
Coronavirus will trigger biggest ever plunge in energy demand, emissions: IEA - (Reuters) - Economic lockdowns brought on by the coronavirus pandemic look set to cut global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions by record amounts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. FILE PHOTO: An excavator of German utility RWE stands in the open-cast brown coal mine of Garzweiler west of Cologne, Germany, January 15, 2020. In rear is a lignite power plant of RWE. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay Global energy demand could slump by 6% in 2020 due to the restrictions placed on homes and industry in what would be the largest contraction in absolute terms on record, according to Paris-based IEA, which advises industrialised nations on energy. The slump would lead to a drop in carbon dioxide emissions of 8%, six times larger than the biggest fall of 400 million tonnes recorded in 2009 following the global financial crisis, according to the IEA, which described its estimate as conservative. “Some countries may delay the lifting of the lockdown, or a second wave of coronavirus could render our current expectations on the optimistic side,” the organisation’s executive director Fatih Birol told Reuters. Graphic – here. Business activity has stalled across much of the globe as the containment measures hammer the world economy, cementing economists’ views of a deep global recession. Carbon intensive coal demand has so far been hit the hardest by the pandemic, with demand in both the first quarter and projections for 2020 as a whole down 8% compared with the same periods last year. Global natural gas demand could fall by around 5% in 2020, while electricity generation fell by 2.6% in the first quarter but renewable power generation rose during the period by 3% with new wind and solar projects coming online. “Given the number of deaths and the economic trauma around the world. This historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer,” Birol said, urging governments to seize on the disruptions to build greener energy infrastructure. The share of renewables in global electricity supply neared 28% in Q1 2020, up from 26% in Q1 2019 and is expected to reach 30% by the end of the year. Graphic here. An unprecedented pact by top oil producing countries this month to rein in output to balance supply with flagging demand may not succeed, the IEA warned, with places to store the excess crude running out. Oil demand fell by 5% over the first quarter but could ultimately be the worst hit fuel over 2020, with total demand down as much as 9%. “At the current pace in the oil market, we may well see around mid-June the global storage capacity can be full,” Birol said, noting the problem was worst in North America.
The Federal Reserve Is Accelerating the Climate Crisis - On Thursday, the Fed announced several expansions of its $600 billion Main Street Lending Program intended to help the country respond to the economic fallout of the coronavirus and ensuing shutdowns. The new changes will come as welcome news to fossil fuel companies previously unable to take advantage of stimulus funds allocated by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security, or CARES, Act as a result of several now-nixed restrictions…. several of these new changes closely mirror requests the oil and gas industry made over the last several weeks. Companies applying for stimulus support will now be able to refinance their existing debts, a change the Independent Petroleum Association of America explicitly requested of Powell in an April 15 letter. Companies can also now receive loans of up to $200 million, an expansion over the previous $150 million limit urged by energy secretary and fossil fuel industry ally Dan Brouillette. Firms with heavier debt loads—American shale oil companies are notoriously debt-heavy—are also now eligible for Fed support, as Texas Senator Ted Cruz requested in an April 24 letter to Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, whose approval is required for the Fed’s new lending programs. “The Administration should not be picking winners and losers among different energy sources,” Cruz wrote, “but President Trump has rightly committed not to allow financial institutions to discriminate against the oil and gas industry and use this crisis to make politically-driven equity calls that force the bankruptcy of American producers.” Per industry and Republican requests, companies newly able to take advantage of stimulus funds also won’t be under any obligation to keep workers on their payrolls or hire back workers they’ve let go. Cruz’s letter also stated that it would be “too restrictive” for oil and gas companies to have to keep them around. The Treasury and Fed “should be transparent about why they made these changes today—and rejected others that were focused on trying to keep workers employed or get them back on payroll,” Ramamurti tweeted in the same thread on Thursday. In a follow-up email to me, Ramamurti noted that stimulus funds weren’t supposed to be used to bail out companies that were struggling before Covid-19 and called it “discouraging” that the money was being furnished without protections for workers. Cruz’s letter conveniently doesn’t mention that the oil and gas industry would be facing a rash of bankruptcies even without a pandemic: Most U.S.-based shale drillers have never produced a positive cash flow. The Fed’s response to the last economic crisis, in fact, helped create this situation, with low interest rates allowing massive amounts of capital to flow into drilling techniques that, until then, had been too costly to finance. As Covid-19 started spreading, the largesse drillers had enjoyed from Wall Street banks was already running out. “The path to an oil and gas bailout runs through the Fed, and they want an entirely separate set of rules,” “What happened this morning is really just one tiny piece in this overarching effort from the oil industry to get a hold of as much of the stimulus money as possible. Even though it would be unprecedented and dangerous for an oil and gas program to divert needed money from communities, there is really nothing from stopping that right now.”
Michael Moore climate film snubs solar and urges population control, ruffling mainstream movement - Big Solar and Big Wind are now as much to blame as Big Oil for a slow reaction to climate change.Big procreators are culpable, too.That’s the broad take-away from controversial and Oscar-winning documentary film maker Michael Moore’s latest offering, a screed against the green movement. Moore, with writer and director Jeff Gibbs, used the 50th anniversary of Earth Day to take on the mainstream environmental movement in “Planet of the Humans.” The film streamed on YouTube, with a boost from promotion by Stephen Colbert and others. It had 1.17 million YouTube viewers as of Thursday afternoon. Moore and Gibbs argue that so-called greenwashing goes beyond a few brands attaching themselves to environmental actions to sell cars, shampoo, meat and sodas. They suggest that much of the green movement as we know it, including the banks rolling out the financing, pushes solar and wind energy components and electric cars that rely too heavily on deforestation and electricity generated from coal and natural gas to produce them. “What we have been calling green, renewable energy and industrial civilization are one and the same thing — desperate measures not to save the planet but to save our way of life,” Gibbs says in the film. A better approach would be people having fewer children. “Infinite growth on a finite planet is suicide,” Gibbs said. The film suggests there are well-meaning but misguided intentions The Obama administration, for instance, advanced a recession-necessitated stimulus package that included nearly $1 billion for “green energy.” Ozzie Zehner, author of the 2012 book “Green Illusions,” accompanies Gibbs on a tour of power plants and explains that it is “an illusion” that renewables are “replacing coal or any fossil fuels.”“Gibbs has a cheeky habit of going backstage at music festivals that solemnly declare themselves to be using 100% renewable energy, only to find that the fancy array of solar panels behind the tent is enough to power a single bass guitar,” Guardian writer Peter Bradshaw says in his appreciation (mostly) of the documentary. “All the green, liberal A-listers — Bill McKibben, Al Gore, Van Jones, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — are attacked in this film as a pompous and complacent high-priest caste of the environmental movement, who are shilling for a fossil fuel industry that has sneakily taken them over,” writes Bradshaw. The Sierra Club is skewered, as is the Union of Concerned Scientists and Elon Musk. Excluded, however:Teenage activist Greta Thunberg.
Nolte: Climate Denier Bill Gates Quietly Buys $43M Oceanfront Home - Microsoft founder Bill Gates has been exposed as the ultimate climate-denier with the purchase of a $43 million oceanfront home.If you truly believe in Global Cooling, Global Warming, Climate Change, or whatever-these-proven-frauds-are-calling-it-now is a real and imminent crisis, that means you believe the oceans are destined to rise and flood the coasts and that this will happen in your lifetime… So why would anyone who professes to believe such a thing — as Gates regularly does — invest $43 million in oceanfront real estate?They wouldn’t — unless they are a madman or a liar, and when it comes to Gates and the rest of the climate phonies, my money is always on the latter.The facts are this…If you judge Gates by his meaningless words, he is not a climate denier. But where it matters… In his actions, his behavior, his multi-million dollar investments, Gates is one of the biggest climate deniers in the history of climate denying.No one — not even if you’re worth billions — pisses away $43 million. Which proves that just like CNN and Barack Obama, Bill Gates is a Climate Change activist who knows it’s all a hoax (and trust me, it is) because no one who truly believes the oceans will flood the coasts would invest 43 million goddamned dollars on a doomed house that sits right on the ocean.“The six-bedroom home spans about 5,800 square feet, according to the listing, the Journal reported. It has a 10-person Jacuzzi overlooking a fire pit, a long oceanfront deck, limestone flooring and a swimming pool,” reports the New York Post, but the real news is that these people don’t even care anymore.The entire Global Cooling, Global Warming, Climate Change, or whatever-these-proven-frauds-are-calling-it-now movement is now so insulated, so corrupted, and so zealously protected by their pals in the corporate media, that a Bill Gates can plunk down $43 million proving he knows it’s all a hoax, and no one blinks.Imagine me telling you that you should not drive a car, use air conditioning, or zealously guard all your individual liberties because if you do the oceans will rise and destroy the coasts, while I invest $43 million in oceanfront property.See how this works? And Gates and Obama and CNN all get away with it. Over and over and over again their behavior betrays what they truly believe, but the racket is so rigged, they can brazenly live a life proving they are lying to the rest of us about this hoax, and no one cares — there’s no price to pay.
Advocacy Groups Urge NJ Turnpike Authority to Put the Brakes on $24B Capital Plan | NJ Spotlight --The $24 billion in new spending on highway widening and other major capital projects that’s been proposed by the New Jersey Turnpike Authority should be shelved in favor of an approach that focuses more on mass transit and fighting climate change.That was the message delivered on Monday by a number of prominent New Jersey advocacy groups that want to see the Turnpike Authority go back to the drawing board with its latest capital plan, which also calls for a series of toll hikes to be enacted on both the turnpike and the Garden State Parkway.The groups released a report that suggested New Jersey could generate more than 1 million jobs by adopting a revised approach to infrastructure investment that balances transportation goals with the need to address environmental, social and economic-justice objectives. In an afternoon news conference, their representatives also said highway motorists have a vested interest in pursuing those types of goals.“We can’t look at our transportation infrastructure in a vacuum,” said Janna Chernetz, deputy director of the Tri-State Transportation Campaign.“We can’t fight climate change by building more roads,” said Doug O’Malley, director of Environment New Jersey. The Turnpike Authority’s $24 billion capital plan calls for more than 50 major projects to be undertaken on both toll roads in rolling, five-year increments.The NJTA, which operates both the turnpike and parkway, is also seeking to hike turnpike tolls by 36%, and parkway tolls by 27%, to support the capital plan. In addition, the proposal calls for annual toll increases of as much as 3% to be enacted on both highways, starting in 2022.The capital plan and the proposed toll hikes have drawn strong support from organized labor and the state construction industry. A high-ranking member of Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration, state Transportation Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, has also pitched the capital plan as a potential source of economic stimulus amid the ongoing uncertainty caused by the still-unfolding pandemic.
At $2.25 / Gallon, 80 Years To Recover Premium Paid For EVs -- Wired -- April 27, 2020 - Earlier it was announced that Daimler's Mercedes-Benz was getting out of the hydrogen fuel cell business after 30 years of research. The company said the concept worked but it was too costly, and it was not scalable. Automobile companies need sales, not politically-correct glossy PR ads. But that company statement about hydrogen being too costly and not scalable, that raises the question about EVs. From wired, March 19, 2020: Electric vehicles, which are more expensive than their gas-powered and hybrid counterparts, also could suffer if consumers become more tight-fisted. “There remains a significant price premium for an EV compared to an internal-combustion vehicle, and cheap gas only extends the payback time,” Abuelsamid says.The hybrid Kia Niro, he notes, starts at $23,000 for the base model and gets 50 mpg.The 240-mile range Niro electric costs $31,000 after the federal tax credit. At the current national average gas price of $2.25 gallon (and given the electricity costs of powering the electric Niro), he says, it would take 80 years to recover the $8,000 premium from energy savings alone. I don't know anyone paying $2.25 / gallon of gasoline in my neck of the woods, closer to $1.09/gallon.
Rivian, Ford cancel plans to build Lincoln-branded EV - Chicago Tribune --A joint project between Rivian and Ford to build a Lincoln-branded electric vehicle has been canceled as the auto industry struggles to navigate the coronavirus pandemic.While there were never specific details about the product, where it would be built or timing for its launch, the automakers planned to build the new vehicle using startup electric truck manufacturer Rivian’s platform. “Given the current environment, Lincoln and Rivian have decided not to pursue the development of a fully electric vehicle based on Rivian’s skateboard platform,” Lincoln said in a statement Tuesday. “Ford Motor Company’s strategic commitment to Lincoln, Rivian and electrification remains unchanged and Lincoln’s future plans will include an all-electric vehicle.”Ford, which last year invested $500 million in Rivian, said Tuesday the partnership “remains strong,” and the companies continue to work together on an alternative vehicle based on Rivian’s platform.
Work to install a tidal turbine in waters off China has been completed, despite coronavirus pandemic --A tidal stream turbine has been installed off the Chinese coast, with work on the project taking place against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic. The 500-kilowatt tidal stream turbine, which has a rotor diameter of 18 meters, was installed in the past week in the Zhoushan archipelago off China's east coast. Tidal energy is the exploitation of the "the natural ebb and flow of coastal tidal waters," according to the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) in Orkney. A number of technologies can be used to convert these tides into power, including tidal stream turbines. In simple terms, they could be described as resembling underwater wind turbines. SIMEC Atlantis Energy (Atlantis), through a partnership with ITPEnergised, worked on the scheme in China with The China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and China Three Gorges. Acknowledging the challenges currently facing all businesses, Atlantis said that CSIC's facilities in Wuhan had "in recent months had to deal with being at the centre of the outbreak of the coronavirus." "The fast execution, from concept design to installation, represents a phenomenal feat of engineering that bodes well for a rapid future roll-out of tidal power in China, which in turn will have material cost reduction implications globally,"
In 2019, U.S energy production exceeded consumption for the first time in 62 years - EIA - In 2019, for the first time since 1957, energy production exceeded energy consumption in the United States on an annual basis, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Monthly Energy Review. The United States produced 101.0 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of energy and consumed 100.2 quads last year. Afterboth energy production and consumption hit record highs in 2018, U.S. energy production in 2019 grew 5.7%, and energy consumption decreased by 0.9%.U.S. domestic energy production has grown substantially during the past decade. The growth is largely a result of increases in crude oil and natural gas production from hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. In 2019, U.S. crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production totaled 31.8 quads, and natural gas production equaled 34.9 quads. Both values are record highs in the United States, surpassing their previous highs set in 2018.U.S. renewable energy production remained fairly constant between 2018 and 2019, growing by about 0.1 quad. In contrast, U.S. coal production declined for the third year in a row, falling by 1.1 quads to 14.3 quads, its lowest point since 1974. U.S. nuclear electric power production has remained steady at nearly 8 quads for the past two decades.U.S. energy consumption has remained in a relatively narrow range in the past two decades, ranging between 96 quads and 102 quads. Petroleum has accounted for the largest share of U.S. energy consumption since 1950, even though it has fallen nearly 9% from its peak in 2005. Since 2008, U.S. coal consumption has decreased nearly 50%, primarily because coal has been displaced by natural gas and renewables in the electricity sector.U.S. natural gas consumption has increased by about 35% since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2019. Renewable energy consumption in the United States—which includes renewable-powered electricity generation, biofuels, and biomass—has grown by 88% during the same period, and its share of consumption was nearly the same as coal in 2019.
$30M investment could double solar energy in Cuyahoga County in five years, study says, but finding the money could be difficult - cleveland.com – Creating an investment fund of at least $13 million from public and philanthropic sources could help double the amount of solar power generated in Cuyahoga County in five years, according to a study financed in part by the county government. Researchers with the Coalition for Green Capital, a Washington D.C. nonprofit that works with governments to help find financing for clean energy, recommend that the fund, or “green bank,” be used to make long-term or low-interest loans to small-scale solar developers. The loans from the fund would in turn allow the developers to borrow up to $17 million from conventional lenders and enable them to install solar panels on small businesses and then sell the electricity that is generated to the businesses at fixed rates, the study states. The study, an advance copy of which was given to cleveland.com, reports that smaller-scale solar developers struggle to finance such projects in the county because of tight profit margins and solar energy being more expensive than energy generated by coal and natural gas. One catch, not addressed in the study, is that Cuyahoga County budgeted no money for such a project this year or in 2021. County Executive Armond Budish has since called for deep spending cuts to address anticipated losses in revenue due to the coronavirus crisis.The two philanthropies that helped fund the study – the Cleveland Foundation and George Gund Foundation – also are not ready to say how much they would be willing to commit to the idea, one of several Budish proposed in a 2019 “climate change action plan.”The Gund Foundation is “seriously considering” an investment, John Mitterholzer, senior program officer for the environment, told cleveland.com on Thursday. But he declined to disclose an amount. The Cleveland Foundation did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Billions in Clean Energy Loans Go Unused as Coronavirus Ravages Economy — As the government struggles to keep businesses afloat through the pandemic, the Trump administration is sitting on about $43 billion in low-interest loans for clean energy projects, and critics are accusing the Energy Department of partisan opposition to disbursing the funds. Congress is already considering more coronavirus relief, despite a growing concern for an annual budget deficit projected to near a staggering $4 trillion. To some energy experts and lawmakers, it is unconscionable that tens of billions of dollars that Congress long ago authorized has sat unused. “We’re searching high and low all over Washington, D.C., for money to put people back to work and here we have more than $40 billion,” said Dan Reicher, executive director of the Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance at Stanford University, who served at the Energy Department under President Bill Clinton. “This is the moment to really put these programs back in gear.” The loans — which would aid renewable power, nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage technology — had some bipartisan support even before the coronavirus pushed 30 million people onto the unemployment rolls. But some supporters of the program said it was being held back by a president who has falsely claimed wind power causes cancer and consistently sought deep cuts to renewable energy spending, including the loan program. “They haven’t put out any or almost any of these loans since he’s become president,” said Representative Frank Pallone Jr. of New Jersey, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. “There’s an ideological or political aspect to this. The president is not someone who seeks to promote the clean energy sector.” The last new project approved under the programs came in late 2016, a loan to a carbon capture and storage plant in Louisiana. The Trump administration did approve one follow-up loan for a nuclear reactor project in Georgia, but the process had begun under the Obama administration.
Missouri eminent domain bill takes aim again at Grain Belt Express project | Energy News Network - A bill that would hobble or possibly kill a major wind energy transmission line project across Missouri is headed to the state’s full House of Representatives.A provision in SB 618 would essentially block Grain Belt Express developers from using eminent domain to secure property along its planned route. The long-distance, high-voltage transmission line would move up to 4,000 megawatts of wind power from central Kansas across Missouri and Illinois. About three dozen utilities in Missouri have committed to purchasing some of the power.A House oversight and reform committee approved the language Wednesday as state lawmakers reconvened this week to pass a budget during a pandemic-shortened legislative session. The language has support in the full House but faces a less certain path in the Senate.Developers of the troubled Grain Belt project have persisted for years despite regulatory disapprovals, unwilling landowners and lawsuits. The Missouri Public Service Commission finally gave its blessing to the vision a year ago.Because the session is close to ending, and because eminent-domain language earlier in the session didn’t get far, legislators decided to innovate this week. They found a bill originally drafted to change the way gas companies deal with a government-mandated infrastructure surcharge. Then they attached an amendment basically prohibiting the project’s developer, Invenergy, from employing eminent domain along the Missouri stretch of the 780-mile route. They also added a couple of sweeteners for the solar industry: a user-tax exemption for in-state solar companies, and a prohibition against homeowner associations outlawing solar arrays.The House’s Special Committee on Regulatory Oversight and Reform approved the package, and the House is now expected to vote on it, probably next week.Given that the House already has endorsed the eminent-domain language, the current bill “won’t have any problem getting through the House,” said Scott Bell, legislative aide to Rep. Jim Hansen, the bill’s chief sponsor in the House. Its trip through the Senate is a little less predictable, he said.
Duke Energy gave half a million to political group before primary, new filings show - Duke Energy funneled half a million dollars through a tax-exempt political group to pay for polling, television ads, and mailers in advance of North Carolina’s March primary, new documents submitted to the Internal Revenue Service show. At least three state legislative candidates got help from the entity named Citizens for a Responsible Energy Future, according to media reports and filings with other federal officials. But that aid accounted for less than a tenth of the group’s total expenses, leaving the full extent of its beneficiaries unknown. Called a “527” for the section of revenue code under which it’s regulated, the group created Jan. 30 by two former Duke executives is separate from the company’s official political action committee. Unlike the PAC, the 527 can take donations directly from corporations and make unlimited expenditures promoting candidates, but it can’t explicitly advocate voting for anyone. “This way they can spend direct corporate money on North Carolina elections without violating the state campaign finance law,” said Craig Holman, a lobbyist with Public Citizen who’s authored numerous studies on 527s. “It also obfuscates how they are spending the money.” Reports submitted to the IRS show that in February, the 527 received two contributions of $250,000 from Duke Energy Carolinas, the larger of Duke’s two utilities in North Carolina. It spent almost all of that income by March 4. The forms list expenses such as “Direct Mail Services” and “TV Advertising and Shipping.” The known examples of these communications walk right up to the legal line, touting candidates’ virtues without mentioning the March 3 election. But under a recent change to North Carolina law, Citizens for a Responsible Energy Future doesn’t have to disclose the candidates who benefited. The spending comes during a pivotal election year that could have long-lasting implications for the investor-owned monopoly utility, which is facing increasing pressure from lawmakers to hasten its transition to clean energy and loosen its control on the electricity market. Duke confirmed the contributions but maintained that shareholders, not its ratepayers, will cover the costs, and regulators have proposed rules clarifying that the utility can’t propose otherwise. But critics say the proposal could still allow utilities to bill customers for donations to 527s.
W. Virginia gov's coal companies to appeal lawsuit rulings(AP) — An appeal is planned in rulings against coal companies owned by West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice in a lawsuit that accused them of defaulting on a mining contract, an attorney said. The appeal on behalf of James C. Justice Cos. Inc. and subsidiary Kentucky Fuel Corp. will be filed with a federal appeals court in Cincinnati, attorney Richard Getty of Lexington, said Wednesday. In September, a federal judge in Kentucky ordered the companies to pay $35 million to New London Tobacco Market and Five Mile Energy. The 2012 lawsuit accused the Justice companies of failing to pay mining royalty payments and retainer fees. ADVERTISEMENT Last week, Justice’s companies also were ordered to pay more than $1 million in legal fees and expenses along with $10,000 in sanctions. The judge also denied a motion to reconsider the case and conduct oral arguments.
A Lexington coal company got millions in virus relief as many smaller businesses wait | Lexington Herald Leader -- It is extremely rare that Crossings, a bar in downtown Lexington, closes its doors to the public. It’s open seven days a week, including on Christmas, Thanksgiving and Easter. Everything’s different now. The point of a bar is to gather a crowd and, as crowds have been forbidden to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, Crossings has been shuttered since March 15. It’s one of the countless small businesses across Kentucky trying to survive until the pandemic passes. To help small businesses like Crossings, the federal government initially injected $349 billion into a loan forgiveness program for small businesses called the Paycheck Protection Program. They are loans with 1 percent interest that the federal government will forgive so long as 75 percent of the money is used for payroll and the business doesn’t fire or cut the salaries of its employees. Within two weeks, that $349 billion had been claimed. An additional $310 billion was approved last week and started being disbursed Monday. In Kentucky, 23,797 businesses secured loans worth $4.1 billion in the first round. While there is no list of the businesses who received loans, Crossings was not among them. Neither was Able Engineering, a small Lexington based company with nine employees. Luther Andal, the co-CEO of Able Engine, was frustrated by the process. He blamed the big banks — his bank is PNC — for not prioritizing true small businesses (the federal government’s definition of a small business varies, but it is generally businesses with fewer than 500 employees) and helping their bigger customers first. One of those bigger businesses that received money was Ramaco Resources, a publicly traded coal company valued at more than $100 million that’s based in Lexington but has no mines operating in Kentucky. Ramaco received an $8.4 million loan — one of only 4,412 companies across the country that received a loan larger than $5 million through April 16, according to the U.S. Small Business Adminstration. The mining industry as a whole received 11,618 loans for a total of $3.8 billion, according to the same data. Coal companies have been considered essential businesses by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security from the outset of the pandemic, meaning they have not been forced to shutdown mining operations.
Ohio EPA OKs north-county surface mine despite protests - The Ohio EPA on Monday issued a final wastewater discharge permit to CCU Coal and Construction’s proposed surface coal mine near Johnson Run in northern Athens County, in spite of strong environmental protests that have been lodged against the project over the past three years.The permit allows the discharge from a sediment pond, which collects water pumped from the mining pits, including runoff from the mine area, spoil piles, topsoil piles, haul road and non-paved parking areas, according to a news release from the EPA.“Discharge from the project may result in a change from current water-quality conditions but does not authorize any violation of Ohio’s water-quality standards,” the release added.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has yet to issue a final mining permit for the project.A third public hearing to accept comments on a draft wastewater discharge permit for the Johnson Run mine on Oct. 6 of last year at Burr Oak Lodge, not far from the proposed mine, drew a flood of comments from citizens who oppose the mine, with no citizens speaking in favor.CCU Coal & Construction of Coshocton, Ohio, proposes to mine approximately 36 acres of land via surface mining and 253 acres by auger and highwall mining methods, according to provided Ohio EPA factsheets at the hearing. Westmoreland Coal Company originally applied for a wastewater discharge permit in July 2016. A public meeting on a draft permit was held Feb. 15, 2018, followed by a public information session on May 7, 2018, to inform the public of steps taken to address concerns over the permit sought by the company.Following this, Westmoreland Coal Company was purchased by CCU Coal and Construction after Westmorland filed for bankruptcy; a new permit application was filed July 9 of last year under the new company ownership. As was the case with the previous permit application, the newest one generated substantial public opposition among community members and local environmental advocacy groups over what they predicted will harm water quality in the area and downstream. Many of these concerns were voiced during the Oct. 6 packed meeting, including criticisms from environmental groups. These included charges that the state EPA omitted its own scientific findings on the quality of the water in Johnson Run and aquatic life in the stream and its water tributaries, information that would have triggered environmental protections.
SUPREME COURT: Clean Water Act ruling tees up coal ash brawl -- Tuesday, April 28, 2020 -- With its landmark Clean Water Act ruling last week, the Supreme Court may have avoided creating a major loophole for coal ash ponds under the statute.In their 6-3 decision in Maui County v. Hawai'i Wildlife Fund, the justices rejected a declaration by EPA last year that said the agency would not regulate any pollution that flows through groundwater on its way to federally protected waters.EPA's interpretive statement excluded from its permitting program pollution sources such as leaks from coal ash ponds, which are large impoundments of power plant waste that often sit adjacent to federally regulated waterways."This is a shot right between the eyes at EPA," said David Hayes, executive director of the State Energy & Environmental Impact Center at NYU Law and a former Interior Department official in the Clinton and Obama administrations. "They come out with this new interpretive rule that purported to overturn 30 years of interpretation of when permits are needed under the Clean Water Act."The Supreme Court gave that interpretation the back of its hand," Hayes said.The impact center promotes work by Democratic state attorneys general. Maryland's top lawyer last summer led a friend of the court brief by a coalition of states and the District of Columbia urging the Supreme Court to rule against the Trump administration's arguments that the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System excludes contamination that moves through groundwater and other conduits. "Congress included no such exception in the Clean Water Act," the states wrote. "Moreover, the Act's stated purpose of 'restor[ing] and maintain[ing] the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the Nation's waters' dictates that it is fair to require polluters to bear those burdens, rather than saddling the public with the burdens of added pollution to navigable waters."While the Supreme Court in Maui tossed out EPA's interpretation, it also rejected the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' "fairly traceable" test that informed the lower bench's decision in favor of environmental challengers. The justices instead came up with a new standard that says Clean Water Act permits are required when "there is a direct discharge from a point source into navigable waters or when there is the functional equivalent of a direct discharge" (Greenwire, April 22).The question of where coal ash pollution falls now sits with the lower courts, said Bob Percival, director of the University of Maryland's environmental law program.
NW Indiana Communities Want NIPSCO to Do More Than Minimum During Coal Ash Pond Closure -On Earth Day, a handful of representatives from the Northern Indiana Public Service Company logged on to a videoconferencing site, one by one. Soon after, dozens of concerned citizens, members of environmental groups and agents from the regulatory entities overseeing the process logged on, too. It was a meeting that would have been held in a public place during normal times, allowing everyone involved to say their piece face to face but the potentially deadly threat of COVID-19 confined the meeting to the Internet and over the phone. The virtual public hearing would have real-life implications for all involved. For NIPSCO, it was one of the final steps in a 16-month long regulatory process to close the Michigan City Generation Station’s five coal ash ponds. Closing the ponds on schedule would allow NIPSCO to meet federal requirements and stick to its money-saving goal of closing down all of its remaining coal-fired power plants by 2028. “That plan really represents a significant cost savings for our customers, and that was really the primary driver behind our generation plans,” said Nick Meyer, NIPSCO’s director of external communications during the virtual meeting. “Certainly, there are environmental benefits associated with those plans, but the cost savings were really the driver, which leads to about a $4 billion in long term savings for our customers.” Local residents, especially people of color and those living in low-income communities, worry that NIPSCO’s future cost-savings plans could leave them paying for that progress with their health. The coal ash ponds contain decades’ worth of different types of coal ash. Although the coal ash types have different properties, they are all toxic. Coal contains naturally occurring toxic chemicals and heavy metals that are concentrated in ash when it is burned, as it is in coal-fired power plants. The resulting coal ash contains arsenic, lead, mercury and many other toxic substances that can cause damage to every organ in the human body. Coal ash can cause cancer, neurological damage, heart disease, lung diseases kidney disease and can even cause harm to reproductive systems.
Miners with black lung face COVID-19 danger as US mines continue operations - The US states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Alabama and Kentucky have all allowed underground coal mining to continue in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic despite the fact that infection by the disease would mean almost certain death for any of the thousands of coal miners and retirees already suffering from black lung. Coal workers’ pneumoconiosis, more commonly called black lung, is a life-threatening and very painful illness caused when coal dust scars and blocks lung tissue, making it harder and harder for a miner to take in oxygen. Miners and health care workers are concerned over the impact that a major lung infection such as caused by COVID-19 would have on people already suffering from a serious lung disease. COVID-19 “would be a nail in the coffin,” said Teresa Tyson, president and CEO of The Health Wagon, which operates free clinics in Wise, Virginia and surrounding counties, speaking to the HuffPost about her father, a former miner who has black lung. “We are seriously worried about our population out here,” Tyson continued. She said her staff has spent weeks preparing for COVID-19, making sure patients had three months’ supply of medicine. Black lung clinics throughout the region have shut down during the pandemic. Many health care workers were needed to confront the COVID-19 pandemic, and medical officials at the centers did not want to take the chance of a black lung client coming into contact with a COVID-19 patient and becoming infected. Rural Americans have also seen a loss of health care as hospitals in rural areas are closed down in record numbers. Last year 19 hospitals closed, and there have already been eight closures so far this year, despite the global pandemic. There are no official statistics on the number of COVID-19 cases among coal miners. The Appalachian coal-producing region is still relatively free of the coronavirus compared to major population centers such as New York, Philadelphia and Detroit, where government inaction has allowed the pandemic to take hold with deadly consequences. Yet many of the counties in this region have cases numbering in the hundreds, some in the thousands, posing a deadly threat to coal miners. Two western Pennsylvania miners tested positive for coronavirus, forcing Consol Energy to close the Bailey mine while they disinfected machinery and work areas. The mine has since reopened.
New Trump Nuclear Plan Favors Uranium Mining Bordering the Grand Canyon - Evergreen forests blanket the Grand Canyon's less traveled northern plateau, and the perfume of Ponderosa pine drifts down a creekbed to the bottom of the great redrock canyon. Downstream, the strangely blue waters of the Little Colorado River meet the main Colorado, coming from the southern plateau close to sacred places for indigenous people who have lived here for centuries. Both plateaus are also where mining companies want to unearth uranium. Mining those claims has been barred since 2012, when Congress imposed a 20-year mining ban across 1 million acres here because past uranium extraction has polluted drinking water and poisoned the air and the ground. Local tribes and environmental groups that sought the temporary ban have been pressing Congress to make the ban permanent. But in a sweeping plan to revive the domestic uranium mining industry unveiled Thursday, the Trump administration proposed instead to open the scenic and sacred areas once again in the name of economic vitality and national security. Allowing more uranium mining on federal lands is just one of the suggestions that emerged from an eight-month review by the White House Nuclear Fuel Working Group. So are the creation of a federally funded, $150 million uranium reserveover the next decade, the easing of environmental regulations at mines and processing plants and the global expansion of U.S.-made nuclear technologies, such as the small modular reactors being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory.Proposals outlined in the Restoring America's Competitive Nuclear Advantage report quickly triggered criticism. Some environmentalists say that the administration shouldn't propose using taxpayer funds during a pandemic to bail out a dirty, uncompetitive industry that's largely owned by foreign companies. They also question why more isn't being done to support existing nuclear plants that generate more than one-third of the nation's carbon-free electricity. The new nuclear-fuel strategy is the latest example of the Trump administration exploiting natural resources on federal lands while ignoring the risks climate change poses to the future of the planet. The new nuclear strategy is in concert with environmental policies that have become familiar in the Trump years. Among them: revoking California's strict auto emissions rules, scrapping stricter pollution limits at coal-fired power plants and rolling back limits on fossil fuel extraction at the nearby Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments just north of the Grand Canyon, in Utah.
Plant Vogtle reports 171 positive COVID-19 cases - Plant Vogtle has had 171 workers test positive for the coronavirus. Georgia Power spokesperson Adrienne Tickle said, of those 171, 81 have recovered and are available to return to work. This represents a recovery of nearly half of all the workforce who tested positive. Test results for 48 workers are still pending; 439 have tested negative.
Georgia Power's Vogtle, Sole US Nuclear Plant Under Construction, Plods Forward Despite Coronavirus Infections -- The modern American nuclear power industry is not known for its punctuality, but the spread of a tenacious virus certainly doesn't help. Utility Southern Company reported Thursday that the "COVID-19 pandemic has impacted productivity levels and pace of activity completion" at Vogtle 3 and 4, the only nuclear power plant construction currently underway in the U.S. Southern Company subsidiary Georgia Power owns the largest stake in the project sited near Augusta, Georgia. The company still expects the units to meet their latest in-service deadlines of November 2021 and 2022, and has not changed the project's forecast capital cost. Those timelines and costs are already years behind the initial schedule and billions of dollars over the original budget. Power Magazine has a helpful play-by-play of the reasons for that, including faulty rebar, mid-project design changes, faulty welds, multiple reshuffles of the construction contractor responsibility, and the bankruptcy of AP1000 reactor supplier Westinghouse. Work at Unit 3 proceeded mostly according to plan through March, though a backlog of tasks started to accumulate. Halfway through April, the project cut its 9,000-person workforce by 20 percent to allow for better social distancing. At the time, 42 workers had tested positive for COVID-19 and 57 were waiting for test results, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. That number rose from six confirmed cases as of April 10. Unit 3 has passed the 90 percent construction mark, Southern Company said, and under an aggressive work plan could enter service as early as May 2021. Unless, that is, COVID-19 intercepts it at the finish line.
Curtain lowers on nuke plant a stone's throw from Manhattan (AP) — With the push of a red button, one of the two operating reactors at an aging nuclear plant serving millions of people in the New York City area will shut down Thursday night as federal regulators consider the owner’s proposal to sell it to a company that plans to demolish it. The Unit 2 reactor at the Indian Point Energy Center along the Hudson River will close for good Thursday, and Unit 3 will close in April 2021, as part of a deal reached in January 2017 between Entergy Corp., the state of New York and the environmental group Riverkeeper. The plant generated a quarter of the electricity used in New York City and suburban Westchester County, where the plant is located, in 2017. But the corporation that runs the state’s electrical grid concluded the closure won’t impair its ability to keep the lights on because new natural gas plants and efficiency measures are picking up the slack. Operators will press a button that inserts control rods into the reactor adjacent to the nuclear fuel, Entergy spokesman Jerry Nappi said Tuesday. The control rods absorb neutrons, which stops the fission that creates the energy. Staffing will be reduced from about 800 to 300 workers about 30 days after Unit 3 shuts down next year, Nappi said. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, had long sought the shutdown, saying the plant 24 miles north of Manhattan in Buchanan posed too great a risk to millions of people who live and work nearby. Riverkeeper noted Hudson River fish kills, soil and water contamination, recurrent emergency shutdowns and vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Entergy cited low natural gas prices and increased operating costs as key factors in its decision to close Indian Point. A year ago, Entergy announced a deal to sell the 240-acre plant to the New Jersey-based decommissioning firm Holtec International, which has submitted a dismantling plan to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The plant is to be demolished by the end of 2033 at a projected cost of $2.3 billion.
UTICA SHALE WELL ACTIVITY AS OF APRIL 25:
- DRILLED: 164 (155 as of last week)
- DRILLING: 97 (102)
- PERMITTED: 509 (504)
- PRODUCING: 2,481 (2,481)
- TOTAL: 3,251 (3,242)
Nine horizontal permits were issued during the week that ended April 25, and 10 rigs were operating in the Utica Shale. TOP COUNTIES BY NUMBER OF PERMITS
- 1. BELMONT: 688 (682 as of last week)
- 2. CARROLL: 530 (530)
- 3. HARRISON: 512 (510)
- 4. MONROE: 438 (438)
- 5. GUERNSEY: 280 (280)
Ohio produced record natural gas, oil in 2019 - Ohio produced all-time record volumes of natural gas and crude oil in 2019, according to a new report. The state’s natural gas production in 2019, mostly from the Utica Shale, was 2.882 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, said the Debrosse Memorial Report. The 2019 full-year totals are estimated because final production totals have not yet been submitted to state regulators for the fourth quarter. That natural gas total is up 22% from 2018 totals and is believed to be the highest in Ohio history. Ohio ranks fifth in the U.S. for natural gas production, Kallansh Energy reports. Estimated oil production in Ohio in 2019 is 27.8 million barrels. That tops 2018’s total of 22.7 million barrels and also surpasses the 1896 total of 23.9 million barrels from the Trenton Limestone formation. The most active operator in Ohio last year was Ascent Resources with 104 new wells, up 49% from 2018. Second was Gulfport Appalachia with 50 additional wells, followed by EAP Ohio (Encino Energy) with 38 wells, Eclipse Resources (now Montage Resources) with 34 wells and Rice Drilling (now part of EQT) with 17 wells. Belmont County was the No. 1 drilling county in Ohio in 2019 with 80 wells drilled. Jefferson and Monroe counties were tied for second, each with 69 wells. Harrison County was fourth with 34 and Guernsey County was fifth with 32. Ohio had 406 well completions in 2019, down two completions from 2018. Ascent Resources drilled 2.2 million feet of laterals and vertical shafts in 2019, more than double second-place Gulfport Appalachia with 1.0 million feet. The rest of the top 5 were Eclipse Resources with 768,269 feet, EAP Ohio with 767,757 feet and Rice Drilling with 347,459 feet. Belmont County was No. 1 for drilled footage with 1.63 million feet, followed by Jefferson with 1.46 million feet and Monroe with 1.41 million feet. Guernsey had 775,218 feet and Harrison had 717,604 linear feet. Statewide, a total of 6.57 million linear feet were drilled in 2019, up slightly from the 6.51 million feet in 2018. In Q4 2019, Ohio had 2,523 Utica wells online. Last year, Ohio had 41 different O&G companies complete wells, up slightly from the 38 operators in 2018. In 2011, the state had 121 producers. Ohio also reported limited drilling in the Clinton (52), Knox (25) and Marcellus (14) formations. Shumway also reported that Ohio’s 225 active injection wells handled less liquid drilling wastes in 2019. The volume injected was 43.372 billion barrels, down 3.5% from the 44.941 billion barrels in 2018. The 2019 total is still the No. 2 highest volume injected ever in the state with 40% of the wastes coming from other states.
Study tries to untangle shale gas and coal impacts on Ohio groundwater - Rob Reed is happy to have clean well water at his family’s Monroe County, Ohio, fruit farm. But in a region rife with fossil fuel extraction, worries about contamination loom. “It seems like eastern Ohio is always under assault from some entity or another, whether it’s an underground coal mine or fracking for natural gas or whatever it is,” Reed said. “They’re always drilling holes and making tunnels under the earth. Of course, that’s where the water comes from.” Samples from the Reeds’ well are among hundreds being analyzed by Yale University researchers who hope to better understand how different types of fossil fuel activity affect groundwater. The study might give some residents a clearer view of where to point a finger if wells do go bad. Results could bolster claims for damages in some future cases or potentially absolve one industry or another in other situations. More generally, the work can provide important insights for lawmakers and regulators. “We’re just trying to get good quality information for policymakers,” said Helen Siegel, a graduate research fellow on the project. The work focuses on Belmont and Monroe counties, which have not been the focus of much prior research. The poverty rate in Monroe County was almost 17% in 2018. Belmont County fared somewhat better, with an overall poverty rate of roughly 13%. But there are wide disparities among cities and towns in that county. St. Clairsville, where Murray Energy is headquartered, had roughly 1 in 20 children living in poverty. In contrast, Martin’s Ferry had more than 1 in 4 children living in poverty.
Decision delayed on Ohio petrochemical plant -- Akron Beacon Journal - Two Asian companies have delayed a decision on whether to proceed with a long-talked-about petrochemical plant for eastern Ohio.The companies behind the project, Thai chemical company PTT Global Chemical America and South Korean partner Daelim Industrial Co., are blaming the coronavirus for delaying a decision that was supposed to be made by July.“While, due to circumstances beyond our control related to the pandemic, we are unable to promise a firm timeline for a final investment decision, we are working hard toward that decision,” the companies said in a post on their websites.“We pledge that we will do everything within our control to make an announcement as soon as we possibly can with the goal of bringing jobs and prosperity to the Ohio Valley.”JobsOhio, the state’s economic development arm, said it is continuing to work with the companies. JobsOhio has committed $70 million in loans and grants to the project.“This project remains a top priority,” JobsOhio said in a statement. “We understand that the pandemic will delay some project decisions that companies may make. JobsOhio continues to be in close communication with the PTTGCA and Daelim teams in regard to their plans in Belmont County.” The delay is adding to what already has been a lengthy process for determining whether the companies will go ahead. PTT announced in 2015 that it was considering the site, once the home of a coal-fired power plant along the Ohio River near Shadyside, for the project. PTT later brought on Daelim as a partner. If they go ahead, it would be an economic boon for the region, employing several thousand workers during construction and several hundred once the plant became operational.
Developers Put a Plastics Plant in Ohio on Indefinite Hold, Citing the Covid-19 Pandemic - The developers of a proposed plastics manufacturing plant in Ohio on Friday indefinitely delayed a final decision on whether to proceed, citing economic uncertainties around the coronavirus pandemic.Their announcement was a blow to the Trump administration and local economic development officials, who envision a petrochemical hub along the Ohio River in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.Environmental activists have opposed what they say would be heavily polluting installations and say bringing the petrochemical industry to this part of Appalachia is the wrong move for a region befouled for years by coal and steel. Thailand's PTT Global Chemical America and South Korea's Daelim Industrial have been planning major investments in the $5.7 billion plant, 60 miles southwest of Pittsburgh, for several years. On the site of a former coal-fired power plant, the facility would have turned abundant ethane from fracking in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions into ethylene and polyethylene, which are basic building blocks for all sorts of plastic products.The partnership had promised a final investment decision by summer, but announced the delay in a statement on its website. "Due to circumstances beyond our control related to the pandemic, we are unable to promise a firm timeline for a final investment decision," the companies said. "We pledge that we will do everything within our control to make an announcement as soon as we possibly can with the goal of bringing jobs and prosperity to the Ohio Valley."In March, financial analysts with IHS Markit, a global information and data company, and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a nonprofit think tank, agreed the project was in trouble even before the coronavirus began to shrink the global economy. A global backlash against plastics, low prices and an oversupply of polyethylene, were all signs of troubling economic headwinds before Covid-19 sent world oil prices tumbling, disrupting the petrochemicals industry. JobsOhio, the state's private economic development corporation, has invested nearly $70 million in the project, including for site cleanup and preparation, saying thousands of jobs were in the offing. A JobsOhio spokesman declined to comment Friday.
Exclusive: Chesapeake Energy preparing bankruptcy filing Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.N), the oil and gas exploration and production company that was at the forefront of the past decade’s U.S. shale boom, is preparing a potential bankruptcy filing as it grapples with an unprecedented rout in energy prices, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. The Oklahoma City-based company, cofounded by late wildcatter and outspoken natural gas proponent Aubrey McClendon, has held discussions with creditors about a possible loan that would aid operations while it navigates bankruptcy proceedings, the sources said. The loan could total roughly $1 billion, though its size remains in flux, one of the sources added. Such loans, referred to as debtor-in-possession financing, are key to companies seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection because they help them sustain as much of their business as possible during court proceedings. Chesapeake’s discussions about possibly obtaining bankruptcy financing are in early stages, and the company has made no final decisions about how it plans to address its debts, the sources cautioned. It could attempt to persuade creditors to restructure its debt outside of bankruptcy proceedings, said the sources, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. Chesapeake did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Chesapeake was trying to pivot from gas to a greater emphasis on oil production when a Saudi-Russian energy price war earlier this year upended its plans and the wider crude market. It was dealt another blow by the coronavirus outbreak, which caused energy demand to dwindle by shutting large swaths of the global economy. Chesapeake, which employed about 2,300 people as of the end of last year, faces significant payments due this year on portions of its nearly $9 billion debt pile. Maturities and interest expenses combined total more than $1 billion, according to a regulatory filing. Chesapeake is considering skipping a payment of $192 million due in August, adding urgency to the discussions with creditors, one of the sources said. Chesapeake also faces a $136 million obligation on July 1. Chesapeake is also discussing the prospect of obtaining an additional equity infusion that would likely follow a bankruptcy filing, according to one of the sources. The company does not currently anticipate help in the form of U.S. government aid provided to companies ailing from the coronavirus crisis, the source added.
Energy Transfer racks up more violations on Revolution pipeline - A few months after regulators imposed a historic $30 million fine on Energy Transfer Corp. and allowed it to resume environmental permitting in Pennsylvania, the pipeline company is already negotiating a new settlement to address a slew of violations found since that agreement. The 596 new environmental violations since January stem from the Texas-based company’s inability to stabilize soil along the route of its Revolution pipeline, a 40-mile link between wells in Beaver and Butler counties and a processing plant in Washington County. Regulators have documented masses of rock and soil that have sloughed downhill, spilled over barriers, knocked out trees and filled in streams. Slipping earth that had been repaired failed again; structures to keep soil in place were installed improperly or overwhelmed in wet weather. In February, an inspector arrived at a pitch in Beaver County and found it “actively moving.” The path of a National Fuel pipeline photographed in August 2019 in Center Township. This 4.5-mile link to the Shell cracker plant in Potter will cross the Revolution pipeline close to the explosion site. Repeatedly, the company was put on notice for not following permit requirements or the company’s own state-approved plans for cleaning up and stabilizing the pipeline route, but regulators have stopped short of revoking Energy Transfer’s permits or instituting another permit ban on the company. The Revolution pipeline has been out of service since Sept. 10, 2018, when a portion of it slid down a steep, drenched hill in Center, Beaver County, ruptured and exploded. Although the Jan. 3 consent order and agreement between the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and Energy Transfer obligates the company to pay $20,000 for each day it is in violation of its conditions — and to remit these payments monthly — the DEP says it hasn’t received any money from the pipeline firm. The agency “has issued letters reminding ETC of its stipulated penalty obligations,” said DEP spokeswoman Lauren Fraley, but declined to provide those letters because they are the “subject of settlement discussions and are confidential.” “We do not agree with DEP’s position on these penalties,” Energy Transfer’s spokeswoman Alexis Daniel said last week. Energy Transfer also believes the DEP “is not in compliance with its own guidelines in the way it notes violations and is citing the same ‘violation’ multiple times (many of which have been self-reported to DEP by Energy Transfer), in essence double, or even triple reporting alleged violations, even in some instances where the issue has already been addressed,” she said.
Plum oil and gas waste well has a permit but no plans to open soon - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has granted a permit for an oil and gas wastewater disposal well in Plum, but cratering oil prices and widespread economic disruption have made the controversial project uncertain.Delmont-based Penneco Environmental Solutions received approval from federal regulators in 2018 to operate the disposal well. Pennsylvania regulations required DEP to conduct a second review.The Sedat #3A well would be the first disposal well in Allegheny County and one of about a dozen permitted facilities in the state.Penneco Chief Operating Officer Ben Wallace said the company has no clear timeline for developing the facility.“Candidly, with the whole COVID shutdown and the collapse of oil prices yesterday and Appalachian production being questionable, we’re still trying to figure out what we do now that we finally got a permit,” he said on Tuesday.“All bets are off today, I can tell you that.”The benchmark price for U.S. crude oil fell to an unprecedented low of negative $37 a barrel on Monday, spreading shocks to other oil markets.The posted price for a barrel of Pennsylvania Grade Crude Oil was $0.20 on Monday, with lighter liquid hydrocarbon products from Marcellus and Utica wells priced between negative $38 and negative $58 a barrel.
CNX moving toward production maintenance in 2022 -- CNX Resources has announced a first quarter 2020 net loss of $329 million or $1.76 per diluted share, Kallanish Energy reports. That compares to a 1Q 2019 net loss of $87 million or a loss of 44 cents per share, the Pennsylvania-based company said on Monday. It reported a goodwill non-cash impairment of $473 million for midstream operations and a $62 million impairment related to coalbed methane in southwest Pennsylvania. It reported net cash provided by operating activities of $267 million and capital expenditures in 1Q 2020 of $152 million. That compares to net cash provided by operating activities of $309 million and capital expenditures of $299 million in 1Q 2019. Consolidated free cash flow in the quarter was $129 million, an increase from $15 million in 1Q 2019. CNX, an active player in the Appalachian Basin, has reduced its 2020 projected production from 525 to 555 Bcfe to 490 to 530 Bcfe. It said it expects 2021 production to reach 550 Bcfe, perhaps 600 Bcfe if natural gas prices strengthen. The company said it expects to shift to a maintenance of production in 2022-2026 with capital expenses to average $270 million a year. It is planning to turn in-line 25 wells each year. Such a plan would leave its Marcellus Shale assets in southwest Pennsylvania and Utica Shale assets in Ohio available for future development, he said. It said it expects to produce free cash flow in each of those seven years, although production would not grow. In first quarter 2020, the company operated two rigs and drilled 10 wells in the Appalachian Basin. It currently has two rigs and one frack crew working.Appalachian E&Ps' shares soar on forecasted associated gas decline. -- COVID-related demand destruction and the oil price meltdown have engulfed energy markets and companies in a thick, pervasive shroud of doom and gloom. But investors and analysts have hit upon a potential bright spot for one segment of the industry: Gas-Weighted E&Ps that had been battered by the decade-long shift of upstream capital investment to crude-focused resource plays. The massive cutbacks in 2020 capital investment by oil producers triggered by the recent, dramatic decline in refinery demand for crude will reduce not only oil output, but associated gas production as well. That drop in supply raises the prospect of meaningful increases in natural gas prices in 2021 –– hence Wall Street’s new interest in Gas-Weighted producers, whose equity values have taken off in recent weeks after a big plunge earlier this year. There’s a lingering concern though, namely that LNG exports — a key driver of gas demand for U.S. producers — may be slowed by collapsing gas prices in key international markets. Today, we discuss what’s been going on. Over the past few years, associated gas production from the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and other basins drove total supply growth that outpaced record growth in U.S. natural gas demand. The resulting imbalance steadily eroded Henry Hub prompt gas futures pricing to a recent low in the mid-$1.50s/MMBtu — a level not seen since 1995. The impact on the publicly traded Gas-Weighted E&Ps we track was dramatic, with the share prices of producers such as Range Resources, Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources plunging more than 95% through first-quarter 2020, from their 2013-14 highs. However, since April 1, share prices of the eight significant U.S. Gas-Weighted E&Ps — all Appalachia-focused — have risen sharply, with six of them more than doubling in price over the three-week period.
U.S. court ruling could threaten pipeline projects with delays - (Reuters) - Several major U.S. oil and natural gas pipeline projects could be at risk of delays after a U.S. district judge in Montana this month said the Army Corps of Engineers had inappropriately used a national permit program, energy analysts said on Tuesday. Chief U.S. District Judge Brian Morris ruled on April 15 that the Army Corps violated federal law by issuing the so-called Nationwide Permit 12 that allows pipelines to cross water bodies because it did not adequately consult with other federal agencies on risks to endangered species and habitat. The ruling halted work on pipelines through streams and waterways, but allows other construction to continue. It’s the latest setback to TC Energy Corp’s plans to build the long-delayed Keystone XL crude pipeline to bring heavy Canadian oil from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest. But the decision could impact other projects that rely on the permit too, including the Atlantic Coast, Mountain Valley and Permian Highway projects, according to analysts. The U.S. Department of Justice and the Army Corps filed a motion on Monday to limit the scope of the order by May 11, but it is unclear if the motion is likely to succeed. “Left unchecked, this ruling could lead to delays on several pipeline projects,” Josh Price, an analyst at Height Capital Markets in Washington, said in a note to clients. Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners said “we think it may be unlikely that (Judge Morris) will reverse course ... and narrow the applicability of his ruling.” Several pipeline companies said they were monitoring the case, but were continuing to work as normal on their projects in the meantime. “At this point, it is not stopping us from continuing our construction,” on the Permian Highway natural gas pipeline in Texas, said Katherine Hill, a spokeswoman for Kinder Morgan Inc. The pipeline is still expected to enter service in early 2021, she added. Natalie Cox, of Equitrans Midstream Corp, said the ruling had not changed the expected completion date of its Mountain Valley gas pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia.
US Delays Oil Pipeline Approvals After Environmental Ruling -- (AP) — The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has suspended a nationwide program used to approve oil and gas pipelines, power lines and other utility work, spurred by a court ruling that industry representatives warn could slow or halt numerous infrastructure projects over environmental concerns.The directive from Army Corps headquarters, detailed in emails obtained by The Associated Press, comes after a federal court last week threw out a blanket permit that companies and public utilities have used for decades to build projects across streams and wetlands.The Trump administration is expected to challenge the ruling in coming days. For now, officials have put on hold about 360 pending notifications to entities approving their use of the permit, Army Corps spokesman Doug Garman said Thursday.The agency did not provide further details on types of projects or their locations.Pipeline and electric utility industry representatives said the effects could be widespread if the suspension lasts, affecting both construction and maintenance on potentially thousands of projects. That includes major pipelines like TC Energy’s Keystone XL crude oil line from Canada to the U.S. Midwest, the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline in Virginia and power lines from wind turbines and generating stations in many parts of the U.S. “The economic consequences to individual projects are hard to overstate,” said Ben Cowan, a Houston-based attorney with Locke Lord LLP who represents pipeline and wind energy companies. “It could be fatal to a number of projects under construction if they are forced to stop work for an extended period in order to obtain individual permits.”
DC Circuit grills FERC on use of tolling orders on Atlantic Sunrise pipeline, other natural gas projects - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit held an en banc hearing on Monday to examine federal energy regulators' use of tolling orders, particularly regarding the approval of the Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline. All 11 judges analyzed a section of law that empowers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to indefinitely postpone litigation of its orders under the Natural Gas Act (NGA). An en banc hearing is rare in the D.C. Circuit, and indicates a majority of the court wants to take a second look at something inherently complex, according to Gillian Giannetti, an attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council. NRDC submitted a friend-of-the-court brief to participate in Allegheny Defense Project v. FERC. The case revolves around the NGA and whether some parties are blocked from taking action on an order, like challenging it in court, while allowing construction of the contested project to be carried out. Proponents of tolling, including several pipeline developers that acted as intervenors on the case, say the practice gives FERC sufficient time to respond to complex rehearing requests. Tolling orders are an accessible tool for FERC to delay judgement on rehearing requests when more time is needed to consider arguments regarding the legality of the commission's actions. FERC attorney Robert Kennedy said tolling orders are "generally entered almost as a matter of routine." Petitioners argued that pipeline projects have been completed while opponents were unable to litigate because a tolling order was in place. "This case is exceptionally important because it brings to light a habitual practice by [FERC] that raises serious questions of fairness, due process and legality. And the commission's defense in no way addressed how [a FERC order] can be final for some but not for others," NRDC's Giannetti told Utility Dive.
Judges Dissect Pipeline Review Process Called ‘Kafkaesque’ - Federal regulators could be forced to update their review process for pipeline challenges after judges scrutinized the fairness of a longstanding policy that often keeps opponents out of court while a company builds a project. The full slate of active judges from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit convened via teleconference Monday for a dispute over the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s use of “tolling orders” to lengthen the time the agency has to resolve complaints about pipeline approvals. The seemingly bureaucratic debate has sweeping on-the-ground implications for energy companies, landowners, and environmentalists. A ruling against FERC could require the agency to process challenges faster, giving project opponents a better chance of blocking construction in court. The 11-member court didn’t appear to reach clarity on the legal issues at play during more than three hours of arguments. Several judges seemed sympathetic to the notion that tolling orders result in unfairness, but questioned how an alternative process would work. Siobhan Cole, representing Pennsylvania landowners in the path of the Atlantic Sunrise gas pipeline, frequently returned to the same point: FERC shouldn’t be allowed to frame an order as final enough for developers to move forward with construction, but not final enough for opponents to go to court. The D.C. Circuit now has the opportunity to “right that wrong,” the White and Williams LLP attorney argued. “Would that cause practical problems for the commission and the way it operates, if you lived in that world?” Judge David S. Tatel asked FERC at one point, getting to the heart of some judges’ apparent apprehension about the case.
D.C. Circuit Hears Challenge to Unjust FERC Practice Used to Advance Construction of Unnecessary Atlantic Coast Pipeline | Southern Environmental Law Center– Today, the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia heard a challenge to a systematic practice by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that prevents landowners and communities from challenging FERC’s decisions in court before energy infrastructure projects get under way—including FERC’s approval of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.In a rare telephonic argument before the full court, challengers to the Atlantic Sunrise gas pipeline project argued for an end to FERC’s practice of issuing “tolling orders,” which allows construction to begin—and, in some cases, allows entire pipelines to be completed—before court challenges to FERC’s approval can proceed. “FERC has stacked the deck for years in favor of pipeline developers, allowing them to clear-cut forests, trench through rivers, and construct polluting facilities before the communities in the pipeline’s path can even get into court,” said Southern Environmental Law Center senior attorney Mark Sabath. “The Atlantic Coast Pipeline is just one example of the environmental damage done while FERC keeps the courtroom doors shut.”In 2018, FERC used tolling orders to forestall court challenges to the Atlantic Coast Pipeline for eight months while allowing Dominion and Duke Energy to barrel forward with tree-clearing and construction that have permanently scarred land in West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina.SELC submitted a friend-of-the-court brief in the case jointly with Earthjustice, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. The brief highlights the staggering scope and regularity of FERC’s tolling practice and the significant, permanent harm that property owners, communities, and our lands suffer as a result.
House probe: Energy regulators almost always side with gas pipeline companies -A probe conducted by the House Oversight and Reform Committee has found that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) consistently sides with natural gas pipeline companies over property owners in certain land disputes. The committee found that in more than 99 percent of cases over the past 20 years, FERC has decided to give natural gas pipeline companies eminent domain; the move was approved 1,021 times and only rejected six times. Their investigation also determined that over the past 12 years, when landowners have sought to appeal FERC’s decision to give companies eminent domain over their property, in every case the commission has issued an order extending its time frame to respond. The appeals were ultimately denied every time. “The deck is totally stacked against landowners who want to defend their family’s land against takeover by private natural gas companies,” said a statement from Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who heads the panel's Subcommittee on Civil Rights and Civil Liberties. “FERC habitually delays its administrative duties to respond to landowner requests so long that those landowners have no opportunity to have their voices heard. By the time they have the chance to speak up, their land has already been invaded and in some cases destroyed,” he added. Rep. Chip Roy (Texas), the top Republican on the Civil Rights and Civil Liberties panel, said in a statement on the findings that "we should work to ensure appropriate protections are in place for individual landowners and are balanced with the public benefits of access to abundant, affordable natural gas." The results of the investigation were released in a video report published Tuesday by the committee. In response, FERC Commissioner Neil Chatterjee said in a statement that the organization “considers natural gas pipeline applications consistent with the Natural Gas Act and longstanding court precedent.” “The Commission recognizes and is sympathetic to landowner concerns, and we are committed to improving our process. We have taken steps to do just that, with the goal of speeding up our consideration of requests for rehearing so that landowners can have their day in court more quickly,” Chatterjee added. FERC regulates interstate transmission of natural gas, oil and electricity as well as natural gas and hydropower projects.
Natural gas markets remain regionalized compared with oil markets --Crude oil markets respond quickly and often dramatically to world events, but natural gas markets have tended to be driven by regional factors and have been less connected to the international market.One indication of this difference between these markets is the correlation, or co-movement, of daily prices. The correlation of daily price movements between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent is typically higher than 0.90, indicating a strong positive relationship, but recent volatility in the spread between WTI and Brent has lowered the number for the year. In comparison, the daily returns for the international natural gas benchmarks U.S. Henry Hub, Asia’s Japan/Korea LNG (JKM), and the UK National Balancing Point (NBP) show little correlation. Comparing the crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent to the international benchmarks for natural gas also shows little correlation at present, which is significant because natural gas contract prices were historically determined, at least in part, by the price of crude oil, and many current contracts still contain that link to varying degrees. Most crude oil is traded on short-term contracts based on spot prices, and refiners generally purchase crude oil for processing 90 days in advance. Although there are differences among crude oils, such as density and sulfur content, that help determine price differentials, some refiners (those that have more complex processing units) can switch between lighter and heavier crude oils when necessary. By comparison, the quality of natural gas is standardized as it enters the pipeline delivery system. Events that lead to crude oil shortages or surpluses in one region can quickly affect prices and can create arbitrage opportunities to move crude oil to and from other regions. Crude oil is primarily transported by tanker or pipeline.Natural gas is predominately transported through pipeline systems because of its gaseous state. When converted to liquefied natural gas (LNG) through cryogenic processing, natural gas can be shipped by tanker overseas. However, the liquefaction process is expensive, and LNG requires specially designed tankers to maintain cryogenic integrity (in other words, tankers that have tanks capable of limiting re-vaporization and product loss while in transit). Although the cost of transporting crude oil is usually a fraction of the crude oil cost, the cost of liquefying and transporting natural gas in the form of LNG can, in some cases, cost as much or more than input cost of the natural gas.
U.S. natgas futures fall on mild forecasts, lower demand and exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on long-term forecasts government lockdowns to stop the coronavirus spread will reduce domestic demand for the fuel and have already cut liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. Traders noted gas prices slipped despite a continued slowdown in output as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due to the collapse in crude prices. Those oil wells also produce a lot of gas. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.5 cents, or 1.%, to settle at $1.794 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The June contract, which will soon be the front-month, gained about 3 cents to settle at $1.95 per mmBtu. Looking ahead, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading even higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump as the economy snaps back once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. U.S. crude, meanwhile, remained on track to drop for a fourth week in a row, falling about 55% during that time. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected gas production will fall to an annual average of 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 87.5 bcfd in 2021 from a record 92.2 bcfd in 2019 as drillers shut wells and cut spending on new drilling. That would be the first annual production decline since 2016 and the first time output fell for two consecutive years since 2005. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged just 92.7 bcfd so far in April, down from an all-time monthly high of 95.3 bcfd in November. EIA projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas use - not including exports - to an average of 83.8 bcfd in 2020 and 81.2 bcfd in 2021 from a record 85.0 bcfd in 2019. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.
U.S. natgas futures jump to 10-week high as output slows - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a 10-week high on Thursday as output slows because drillers are shutting oil wells in shale basins due to the recent collapse in crude prices. Those oil wells also produce a lot of gas. That price increase came despite a report showing an expected storage build last week, and forecasts that government lockdowns to fight the coronavirus will cut domestic demand and exports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 70 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 24. That was in line with the 69-bcf build analysts estimated in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 114 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 74 bcf for the period. The increase for the week of April 24 boosted stockpiles to 2.210 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 19.5% above the five-year average of 1.850 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.0 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $1.949 per million British thermal units, their highest since Feb. 19. For the month, the contract gained about 18% after falling around 37% over the prior five months. That is the biggest increase in a month since November 2018. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 92.7 bcfd so far in April, down from 93.2 bcfd in March and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. EIA projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas use - not including exports - to an average of 83.8 bcfd in 2020 and 81.2 bcfd in 2021 from a record 85.0 bcfd in 2019. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from an average of 86.2 bcfd this week to 85.0 bcfd next week. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday of 86.3 bcfd this week and 84.6 bcfd next week.
U.S. natgas futures fall from 10-week high as coronavirus cuts demand, exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday from a 10-week high on forecasts for demand and exports to decline because of government lockdowns to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. The declines occurred despite a continued drop in output as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due to the collapse in crude prices. Those oil wells also produce a lot of gas. U.S. crude futures are down about 70% since the start of the year. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.9 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $1.890 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the front-month closed at its lowest since Feb. 19. For the week, however, the contract gained about 8% after falling less than 1% last week. Looking ahead, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected gas production will fall to an annual average of 91.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2020 and 87.5 bcfd in 2021 from a record 92.2 bcfd in 2019 as drillers shut wells and cut spending. With many businesses shut due to the coronavirus and milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from an average of 86.4 bcfd this week to 79.5 bcfd next week before rising to 82.8 bcfd in two weeks. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Thursday of 86.2 bcfd this week and 85.0 bcfd next week. Even though the coronavirus is cutting gas use worldwide, EIA still expects U.S. exports to hit record highs in coming years as more liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines enter service. Still, the agency has reduced its projections on the pace of that growth due to the pandemic. Refinitiv said average U.S. pipeline exports to Canada fell to a six-month low of 2.4 bcfd in April, down from 2.8 bcfd in March and an all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Average pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, fell to an 11-month low of 4.7 bcfd in April, down from a record 5.6 bcfd in March. U.S. LNG exports averaged a four-month low of 8.1 bcfd in April, according to Refinitiv, down from 8.3 bcfd in March and an all-time monthly high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
These oil and gas industry businesses plan to lay off hundreds in Louisiana, including in Broussard, New Iberia -- Several businesses in the oil and gas industry across the state expect to lay off at least 600 workers collectively or have already sent out pink slips due the economic downturn and a glut of oil from reduced demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Two companies near Lafayette and one each in Baton Rouge and Bossier City filed layoff notification with the Louisiana Workforce Commission. The largest layoff is for 350 workers in three pipe fabrication facilities in Port Allen run by Turner Industries, based in Baton Rouge. The company has seen a decline in customer orders since the price of oil collapsed and the economy turned downward from the coronavirus pandemic. “We are continuing to watch for new work in the coming months and will be responding to the economy as it turns around,” said Stephen Toups, president of Turner Industries. “We believe these layoffs are temporary and have every intention to resume normal operations.” ASRC Energy Services Omega in New Iberia is closing its facility and laying off 180 workers starting in early June through August. "We would like to have given more notice of this action, but were unable to do so because of how quickly our operations were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic," the company said in its letter to the state agency. The company did not respond to a request for comment. Ensco Offshore Co., which recently changed its name to Valaris, is laying off an undisclosed number of workers at its Broussard office, who are assigned to work offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. The company has seen customers suspend, defer and terminate drilling contracts due to the economic situation and low oil prices.
Restoring island where cleaned birds brought during BP spill --Louisiana is moving toward restoration of an island so low that high tides often drown the eggs and chicks of the pelicans and other birds that nest there.Bids will be opened Thursday for restoration of Rabbit Island, where hundreds of birds were released after being rescued from the BP oil spill and cleaned of the thick black gunk in 2010.Louisiana’s westernmost nesting site for colonial seabirds and wading birds isn’t a barrier island. Rather, it sits in a cove of Calcasieu Lake. It wasn’t affected by the spill, but is “the poster child for nest inundation,” said Jon J. Wiebe, project manager for the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.BP oil spill money is paying for the $27 million project, which is more than double the size of the recently completed restoration of Queen Bess Island. Pelicans and other birds already have built about 5,000 nests at Queen Bess, with the height of nesting season still to come — an encouraging success, said biologist Todd Baker of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.Federal scientists estimated that the spill killed up to 102,000 birds gulf-wide, though later studies put the figure much higher. Anywhere from 12,700 to 27,600 pelicans were killed, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates.
Watch: Ocean Reefs Hidden Beneath Offshore Oil Rigs - The 2010 BP oil spill dumped more than 200 million gallons of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, where it killedbillions of fish. Had things gone as planned, that oil would have fueled cars and trucks, worsening climate change, which is going to kill billions of fish — and that was the best-case scenario. In short, oil is bad for sea life. Except sometimes it's not. That's because the legs and bracings holding up oil platforms are the ideal setting for ocean reefs. Fish like to gather around the pylons, which are covered in mussels, barnacles and corals. Emily Hazelwood, who worked as a field technician after the BP oil spill, recalled learning about the reefs firsthand."BP had hired all the fishermen who lost their jobs to drive our boats," she said. "Every time we would go out with them, and we would pass one of the many oil platforms, they would say they couldn't wait to go out there fishing."Experts say offshore oil will peak this year as prices fall, a trend exacerbated by the coronavirus and the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The slump is expected to send a growing number of rigs offline.There is a real question as to what to do with the shuttered rigs, which can provide a safe home to ocean life. Oil platforms typically lie far from shore, so they are protected from the water pollution that empties into the ocean, Hazelwood said. They are safe from commercial fishing trawlers that gather up schools of fish out at sea. "Stretching from sea floor to sea surface, these platforms can be as large as the Empire State Building, which provides a lot of real estate for marine life," Hazelwood said. "That richness of life on an oil platform is just so cool. I have never seen a group of fish like that before."
Diamond Offshore Files for Bankruptcy-- Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc., the rig contractor controlled by Loews Corp., filed for bankruptcy amid an unprecedented crash in crude prices that’s wrecking demand for oil exploration at sea. The company listed $5.8 billion of assets and $2.6 billion of debt in a Chapter 11 petition filed in Houston, citing year-end 2019 data. It has about $434.9 million of cash on hand, according to the document. Diamond owns rigs that can drill in water more than two miles deep. But offshore oil is among the most expensive to produce, putting the company at a disadvantage when prices plunged to less than $30 a barrel. While newer deepwater projects are less expensive, they still take longer to develop than shale wells and they still can’t compete on costs. What’s more, a global glut of offshore vessels has squeezed profit margins. Conditions worsened “precipitously in recent months,” the company said, citing a price war between OPEC and Russia and the Covid-19 pandemic. With cash running short, the Houston-based company led by Chief Executive Officer Marc Edwards skipped a semiannual interest payment due April 15 on some of its senior notes. Diamond Offshore adds to the more than 200 oilpatch bankruptcies dating from 2015, according to a tally by the Haynes & Boone law firm. About 2,500 jobs could be at stake at Diamond.
INTERIOR: Offshore drilling company lied to feds — IG -- Wednesday, April 29, 2020 - The crew of an unnamed corporation manipulated results of a blowout preventer test on an offshore drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico, according to an Interior Department inspector general investigation.
U.S. refinery earnings to detail troubled outlooks as fuel use slumps - (Reuters) - U.S. refiners are expected to report poor first-quarter results starting this week, but investors are more concerned about the outlook for coming months as various states ease movement restrictions designed to curb coronavirus infections. Fuel demand has dropped by roughly 25% in the United States and about 30% worldwide as the coronavirus pandemic has kept billions of people from traveling. U.S. refineries have throttled back production, operating at roughly two-thirds of capacity and global refineries have responded similarly to combat the steep drop in auto and jet fuel use. Most independent refiners are expected to report losses for the quarter, according to Refinitiv Eikon estimates. Valero Energy Corp, the largest U.S. independent refiner, kicks off U.S. refining earnings on Wednesday, followed by Phillips 66 on Friday and several others next week. That company is expected to lose 17 cents per share on revenue of $18.7 million, according to Eikon figures. The company warned two weeks ago that it could lose up to $2.1 billion for the quarter. The seven major independent refining companies, including Valero Energy Corp, Phillips 66, PBF Energy Inc and Marathon Petroleum Corp, are expected to lose, on average, 29 cents a share for the first quarter due to the drop-off in demand, according to Eikon data. Several companies have been cutting overall processing, but only Marathon has begun the process of idling U.S. plants, including its San Francisco-area refinery. Consultants and analysts expect more closures may be needed to rectify the imbalance of crude supply and product demand. April and May are expected to be substantially weaker than the first quarter, as fuel demand remained relatively strong until mid-March. “Refiners were doing alright for the first two months of the year, and then everything fell off of a cliff in March,” said refining analyst Matthew Blair at Tudor Pickering, Holt and Co. U.S. gasoline inventories have surged to a record and U.S. refiners are operating at about two-thirds of capacity. Roughly 85% of worldwide onshore storage was full as of last week, according to Kpler data. North American refiners and other downstream companies face higher credit risk. Inland refiners with less storage space, such as CVR Energy Inc , are also more exposed, according to Fitch Ratings, because they have less options for product offtake.
US Oil Producers Begin Storing Crude in SPR-- U.S. oil producers running out of space for storage amid an unprecedented slump in demand have started making deliveries to the nation’s emergency stockpile. This month, 1.1 million barrels have been delivered into Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage. The Energy Department has finalized contracts announced earlier this month for companies to rent about 23 million barrels of capacity in the SPR, according to an official. On April 14, the department said it was negotiating leasing deals with nine producers, with most of the oil to be delivered in May and June, and possible early deliveries in April. It’s part of a plan by the Trump administration to help drain the nation’s growing glut of crude as commercial storage quickly fills up. The oil earmarked for storage under the program was to be aggregated from small, medium and large producers and companies can schedule return of their crude through March 2021, minus a small amount to cover storage costs.
Texas Oil Port Hit by One-Two Punch: Falling Demand and Overproduction - The New York Times - The expansion of the Port of Corpus Christi in the years leading up to the crisis produced new pipelines and distribution facilities, export terminals, liquefied natural gas plants, storage depots and refineries. Corpus Christi has turned into the largest energy exporter and third-largest port in the United States by tonnage. Last year, it handled 122.2 million metric tons of cargo, 60 percent of it exported oil. But April turned out to be a cruel month for the port’s fossil fuel-based business strategy. After the virus outbreak forced Americans into a lockdown, demand for fuel plummeted 40 percent, while prodigious production from Texas oil fields added to a global surplus. Oil prices, hit by the double whammy of falling demand and overproduction, have plunged nearly 80 percent since the start of year. Natural gas prices, under $2 per thousand cubic feet for months, are at their lowest level since before World War II. Global demand for natural gas has been steady: Corpus Christi still ships more than 25,000 tons of it a day. But the flow of oil through the port has started to slow. From his home office, Sean Strawbridge, the port’s chief executive, surveyed the severe market disruption and reached two conclusions. First, he said, construction projects that were underway would continue. Two of them make up almost half of the capital investment of the last four years. Cheniere Energy, a Houston-based company, is constructing a third production line to liquefy and export natural gas from its LNG processing plant that opened two years ago and has cost $16 billion, according to Industrial Info Resources, a consulting firm that tracks plant construction around the world. And Exxon and Sabic, its Saudi Arabian partner, started construction last year on a 1,100-acre site east of the port’s ship channel for a $10 billion chemical plant to turn natural gas liquids into polyethylene, a feedstock for plastics manufacturing. Second, said Mr. Strawbridge, Texas drilling rigs are shutting down, oil and gas production is diving, and industrial developers are nervous. “It’s a different time,” he said. “We fully anticipate a production slowdown. We’ve employed significant austerity measures.”
Texas energy regulators to vote on production curtailments in May 5 meeting - (Reuters) - Texas energy regulators will next week vote on a controversial proposal to reduce the state’s oil output after delaying it on concerns of legal challenges. The vote follows a motion submitted by Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton, who has already been vocal about the need for curtailments to address historically low oil prices. Oil and gas companies have been gushing red ink and cutting tens of thousands of workers as prices tumble, prompting regulators in the largest U.S. oil-producing state to wade into global oil politics and consider some producers’ calls for cuts. Sitton's motion calls here for curtailments of 20% of the state's output and if agreed, curbs would remain in place until the Railroad Commission of Texas determines that global demand has crossed 85 million barrels of oil per day. The agency has a mandate under state law to “prevent waste of the state’s natural resources,” and some argue that the current oversupply of oil and price crash amounts to “economic waste.” “The presence of ‘waste’ has never been more evident,” said Parsley Energy Chief Executive Matt Gallagher, citing signs of a growing oil glut. “It is my hope that they take this opportunity to lead and vote” in favor of production curbs.” At a meeting last Tuesday, the day after U.S. crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time, two of three commissioners opted not to make a decision but agreed to talk about output curbs again on May 5. Sitton had already said at that meeting he would vote in favor of cutting output by 1 million barrels per day, or 20%. “Taking weeks or even days right now to act is in itself a choice,” Sitton had said. However the vote was delayed because the other two commissioners, Chairman Wayne Christian and Christi Craddick, said they wanted the state attorney general to weigh in on the legality of production curbs.
Huge amounts of methane leaking from U.S. oil fields, study shows — Oil and gas operations in the Permian Basin, the largest oil-producing area in the United States, are spewing more than twice the amount of methane emissions into the atmosphere than previously thought — enough wasted energy to power 7 million households in Texas for a year. That’s the result of a new study by researchers at Harvard University and the Environmental Defense Fund. The Permian Basin stretches across a 250-mile by 250-mile area of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and accounts for over a third of the crude oil and 10% of the natural gas in the U.S. The study, published this week in the journal Science Advances, also found that the rate of leakage of methane gas makes up 3.7% of all the gas extracted in the basin, which is about 60% higher than the national average leakage rate. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and since the Permian Basin is so large, this excess waste is a significant contribution to our already warming climate. “These are the highest emissions ever measured from a major U.S. oil and gas basin,” said study co-author Dr. Steven Hamburg, chief scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). Since 2005, the rapid increase in oil and natural gas production in the United States has been driven primarily by hydraulic fracturing (also known as fracking) and horizontal drilling. While some see the leaked methane gas as a big waste of natural resources, others are focused on the danger posed by methane. Methane is an extremely powerful heat-trapping greenhouse gas, much more potent than its more well-known counterpart, carbon dioxide (CO2). There is 225 times less methane in the atmosphere than there is CO2, but because of its powerful heat-trapping qualities, methane is contributing about 25% of the current rate of global warming.
PIPELINE EXPOSED: KXAN investigation uncovers safety concerns over pipes used in Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway Pipeline | KXAN.com Investigative Summary: A tip led us to a storage yard holding hundreds of pipeline segments in Blanco. The segments will become the Permian Highway Pipeline. The group fighting the pipeline is concerned the anti-corrosion coating on the pipes has been outside, uncovered for far too long. Kinder Morgan — the pipeline owner — tells KXAN its handling of the pipeline construction will “meet or exceed state and federal requirements.” Our investigation found there are no regulations to determine how long is too long before UV radiation begins to degrade the pipe coating. Read Part Two: UV degradation inspections set for Permian Highway Pipeline stock yards
Permian natural gas forwards curve signals better days ahead. - The market’s spotlight in recent days has been on negative prices for both Permian crude oil and natural gas, but in the shadows a powerful rally has taken place in the forward market for Permian gas at the Waha hub. Much of this month’s price weakness for gas in West Texas has been driven by pipeline maintenance. But the Waha forward curve indicates market expectations for higher prices in May, and the possibility of a summer in which Permian gas prices could be some of the strongest on a consistent basis since negative pricing first appeared in the basin back in 2018. Today, we dive into the drivers behind the rise in forward Permian gas prices.It’s been even more challenging than usual lately to get a handle on crude oil and natural gas markets, as there have been huge differences between spot — or physical — prices traded on a daily basis, and futures prices for delivery of crude or gas months or even years from now. Last week, we discussed some of the reasons why these dislocations occur, first in One Way Out, where we detailed our view of the unprecedented negative prices that materialized in the crude oil market. Then, in Future(s) Games, we focused on crude oil pricing mechanisms, and inIt’s Always Somethin’, we zeroed in on the recent trend in spot prices for both Permian crude oil and natural gas. While we didn’t devote a full blog to explaining the differences between daily natural gas spot and futures prices in the Permian, the mechanisms are not that different from crude oil. While producers can develop numerous arrangements under which to sell their natural gas, the arrangements usually involve a combination of selling physical gas each day of the month in the daily market for next-day flow, and selling for the month-ahead at a monthly price set during the last five trading days of the previous month’s trading, a period known as bidweek.
Coronavirus has states hitting pause — except when it comes to oil and gas drilling - California Governor Gavin Newsom was elected after promising to tackle global warming and transition the state to clean energy, but last year journalists revealed that his administration was approving fracking permits at double the rate of the previous administration. Newsom soon announced a moratorium on the approval of fracking permits across the state. That pause remained in place into 2020 — until earlier this month, when the state was preoccupied with thousands of documented cases of the novel coronavirus and a statewide shutdown that Newsom ordered in response. Amid a global pandemic, the scientific panel tasked by Newsom with reviewing all pending fracking applications approved 24 new fracking permits in Kern County, the heart of California’s oil country and a major agricultural hub. The decision left environmental advocates baffled. In a region plagued by the kind of air pollution that public health experts are beginning to link to COVID-19 deaths, they questioned why California regulators would greenlight new fracking permits — especially since the state agency in charge of overseeing this process, California’s Geologic Energy Management division (CalGEM), is operating under a new mission to protect public health and safety. Ironically, just as fracking picks back up the state is also pausing efforts to develop tougher regulations to protect those who live or work near oil and natural gas wells — a part of Newsom’s broader initiative to pull back on drilling as the state works toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. While the coronavirus has seemingly put those loftier goals on hold, business as usual is resuming for the state’s fossil fuel interests. “I don’t think that there’s anyone — outside the industry — that thinks the prescription for COVID is expanding air pollution and public health threats,”
Oil producers scramble to find 'creative' storage options after historic price crash - An unprecedented collapse in oil demand has forced some producers to come up with "creative" measures in order to find places to store their crude, with one energy analyst describing the situation as like a "very elaborate game of hide-and-seek." It comes as the coronavirus crisis continues to hit energy markets hard, with the world awash with oil and quickly running out of places to put it. As a result, U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures plunged below zero for the first time in history last week. Trading volume was thin given it was the day before the contract's expiration date, but, nonetheless, the move lower was extraordinary. On Thursday, the June contract of WTI traded at $17.20 a barrel, up more than 14%, while international benchmark Brent crude stood at $24.63, around 9% higher. At the start of the year, WTI and Brent futures both fetched more than $60 a barrel. "The U.S. crude benchmark is quickly gaining pariah status within the commodity sphere due to storage anxieties," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note published Wednesday. "Traders are dumping the June contract fearing a repeat of the May expiry should producers struggle again to find storage for their unwanted barrels." What storage options are available? The global public health crisis caused by Covid-19 has created an extreme demand shock in energy markets, with storage space — both onshore and offshore — rapidly filling up. In the U.S., the country's main delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma is expected to reach maximum capacity by the end of May. Oil storage at the closely-watched Cushing hub rose by about 10% to reach 59.7 million barrels last week, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's approximately 25 million barrels shy of its total working capacity. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the nation's largest storage facility, has capacity for a whopping 713.5 million barrels of crude oil in its underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast. But, as of mid-April, it already had 635 million barrels of crude stored, meaning it was 89% full. "As a result, while the SPR can be helpful here, it is not a panacea for the industry," Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA, said in a research note to clients. The natural home for all crude oil is a refinery, but refiners must have places to store excess purchases of crude before they are processed. Many producers have opted to store their crude in floating tankers. Last week, Reuters reported there were 160 million barrels of crude oil in floating storage on the ocean via crude oil tankers. "The tankers have been hired, filled, and are simply floating around on the ocean, awaiting a recovery in demand," Glickman explained, noting that the situation had also sent tanker rates "through the roof."
The Next Chapter of the Oil Crisis: The Industry Shuts Down- Negative oil prices, ships dawdling at sea with unwanted cargoes, and traders getting creative about where to stash oil. The next chapter in the oil crisis is now inevitable: great swathes of the petroleum industry are about to start shutting down. The economic impact of the coronavirus has ripped through the oil industry in dramatic phases. First it destroyed demand as lockdowns shut factories and kept drivers at home. Then storage started filling up and traders resorted to ocean-going tankers to store crude in the hope of better prices ahead. Now shipping prices are surging to stratospheric levels as the industry runs out of tankers -- a sign of just how distorted the market has become. The specter of production shut-downs -- and the impact they will have on jobs, companies, their banks, and local economies -- was one of the reasons that spurred world leaders to join forces to cut production in an orderly way. But as the scale of the crisis dwarfed their efforts, failing to stop prices diving below zero last week, shut-downs are now a reality. It’s the worst-case scenario for producers and refiners. “We are moving into the end-game,” “Early-to-mid May could be the peak. We are weeks, not months, away from it.” In theory, the first oil output cuts should have come from the OPEC+ alliance, which earlier this month agreed to reduce production from May 1. Yet after the catastrophic price plunge on Monday, when West Texas Intermediate fell to -$40 a barrel, it’s the U.S. shale patch that is leading. The best indicator of how the U.S. industry is reacting is the rapid drop in the number of oil rigs in operation, which last week fell to a four-year low. Before the coronavirus crisis hit, oil companies ran about 650 rigs in the U.S. By Friday, more than 40% of them had stopped working, with only 378 left. Trafigura, one of the largest exporters of U.S. crude from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, believes that output in Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota and other states will now fall much faster than expected as companies react to negative prices, which have persisted for several days last week in the physical market. Until prices collapsed on Monday, the consensus was that output would drop by about 1.5m barrels a day by December. Now market watchers see that loss by late June. “The severity of the price pressure is likely to act as a catalyst for the immediate turndown in activity and shut-ins,” said Roger Diwan, oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd. The price shock has been particularly intense in the physical market: producers of crude streams such as South Texas Sour and Eastern Kansas Common had to pay more than $50 a barrel to offload their output last week. ConocoPhillips and shale producer Continental Resources Inc. have all announced plans to shut in output. Regulators in Oklahoma voted to allow oil drillers to shut wells without losing leases; New Mexico made a similar decision. North Dakota, which for years was synonymous with the U.S. shale revolution, is witnessing a rapid retrenchment. Oil producers have already closed more than 6,000 wells, curtailing about 405,000 barrels a day in production, or about 30% of the state’s total. The output cuts won’t be limited to the U.S. From Chad, a poor and landlocked country in Africa, to Vietnam and Brazil, producers are now either reducing output or making plans to do so.
Six US oil firms expected to shut 300,000 barrels per day of production in May and June - U.S. energy companies are taking an axe to their rig numbers, deepening production cuts for the industry that in the last few years made America the world's number one oil producer. Six major U.S. shale producers are expected to shut some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude for the months of May and June, according to an analysis of the companies' early communication by Rystad Energy. "Analyzing communication by Continental Resources, Cimarex Energy,ConocoPhillips, PDC Energy, Parsley Energy and Enerplus Corporation, we estimate that oil production cuts in May and June 2020 could amount to 300,000 bpd, an increase from about 100,000 bpd of cuts projected for April 2020," Rystad wrote in a report Tuesday. In March, American producers were still pumping at record highs, according to the Energy Information Administration, even as prices plunged due to the loss of demand from the coronavirus pandemic. The latest weekly government data shows production at 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April, the lowest level since July and a stunning 900,000 bpd less than its record peak of 13.1 million bpd in early March. US oil needs more explicit support from policymakers: Standard Chartered Oklahoma-based Continental Resources is taking "the most drastic action thus far," Rystad reported, forecasting a drop of 69,000 bpd from Continental in April and a cut of nearly 150,000 bpd in May and June. Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips has announced some 125,000 barrels of oil equivalent of gross output to be slashed in May, Rystad wrote, "estimated to amount to around 60,000 bpd of oil net to the company." Artem Abramov, Rystad's head of shale research, estimates a further production decline of "900,000 bpd, 250,000 bpd and 400,000 bpd in Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken throughout 2Q20 respectively," referring to the biggest shale formations in the U.S., with shut-ins accounting for 60% of that initially.When OPEC and non-OPEC producer countries including Russia, Canada, Norway and Brazil joined forces to implement a coordinated oil production cut to put a floor under prices — by a historic 9.7 million bpd from May 1 — the U.S. did not technically join, relying instead on market dynamics to force production down. That's happening now, both in the form of companies shutting in their wells and cutting investment and projects for new wells. The industry hit its most glaring crisis point on April 20 when for the first time in history the price of oil dove below zero, and the May futures contract for U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate hit negative $40 per barrel as storage space disappeared and producers were literally paying buyers to take the oil off their hands. WTI's price is currently down more than 75% year-to-date.
Halliburton lays off 233 employees in Kilgore, to move operations to Bossier City - Oilfield services giant Halliburton laid off 233 employees in Kilgore on Wednesday, and it plans to close the facility and move the operations to Bossier City, the company reported. Houston-based Halliburton on Wednesday notified the Texas Workforce Commission of the layoffs at the facility at 2906 FM 349, citing the “continued decline in customer activities,” with U.S. rig counts falling more than 30%. “At this time, it is expected that the facility will not remain open,” the company wrote. Affected employees will not have bumping rights, the letter to the Workforce Commission stated, indicating the workers will not be given preference if another job comes open in the company. Though the letter to the Texas Workforce Commission was dated Wednesday, the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification act requires companies planning to lay off 50 or more employees to give 60 days of notice. “This decision takes advantage of Halliburton’s real estate footprint and will increase operational efficiencies across the Haynesville Shale and adjacent oil and gas fields,” Halliburton spokeswoman Erin Fuchs said in a statement. “We recognize that this decision will be a hardship for impacted employees, but unfortunately, this was a necessary decision to right-size our organization to current market conditions,” she wrote. Halliburton also closed its Elmendorf facility south of San Antonio and is relocating the operations to field camps in Southern Texas, and it laid off 240 employees from a service center in Duncan, Oklahoma, The Associated Press reported. The number of employees laid off at Elmendorf was not immediately available. The closures and layoffs are blamed on the new coronavirus pandemic, which has cut global demand for oil and natural gas, marking a historic industry slump. Halliburton reported losing $1 billion during the first quarter and laying off 5,000 people. The company has laid off nearly 1,500 employees from Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Louisiana in April, filings and state officials show.
Colorado oil and gas downturn affecting economy, jobs - Colorado oil and gas experts are calling this economic situation the "worst they've ever seen" with a barrel of oil selling for less than it costs to make it. You won't see any oil rigs in El Paso County, but our economy will feel the effects of production coming to a halt. Several of Colorado's oil and gas companies are seeing layoffs and allowing their rigs to sit idle, all partly due to COVID-19. "It's just one more kick when we're already down," said Mark Finley, the fellow in Energy and Global Oil at Rice University's Baker Institute. He says the country's oil rig count fell an unprecedented 45% in the span of six weeks. "Unprecedented shock in global oil demand and even with coordinated efforts to cut production there is too much supply and not enough demand," Finley said. It's forced companies to make massive layoffs in the state, affecting more than just those jobs. "Oil and gas jobs tend to be high paying jobs and they are jobs that come with other related spending on pipelines and rigs and capital equipment," he said. Secretary of State Jena Griswold agrees on experiencing a decline in the demand for oil, something she says the coronavirus only made worse after a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. "The world is producing more than 30 million barrels of oil a day than we are consuming," she said. "While the current situation is dire, how dire is going to depend on how long this pandemic continues,"
PANDEMIC: Here's what an oil bailout could mean for emissions -- A federal bailout of struggling oil firms is unlikely to alter the trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, according to analysts, who say market factors dictate the pace of oil production over stimulus programs related to the coronavirus. Yet if the Trump administration seeks to rescue wobbly shale drillers, an idea floated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in an interview with Bloomberg News last week, it could help shape the government's wider response to the economic free fall caused by the pandemic. And that could have long-term implications for emissions. The Trump administration and Republican lawmakers have so far resisted suggestions to include funding for renewable energy or green infrastructure into federal recovery efforts. President Trump has repeatedly expressed support for aiding the oil industry, which has been clobbered by shrinking oil demand. Mnuchin said the administration will consider extending loans to struggling oil producers. Bloomberg reported that the proposed program would be run by the Federal Reserve, with the government possibly taking an equity stake in some firms. While an injection of federal cash could keep some firms out of bankruptcy court, it is unlikely to change the amount of crude being pumped from U.S. oil fields, analysts said. Demand for crude oil has plummeted as billions of people worldwide limit their movement. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian-based oil consultancy, estimates that American oil demand fell 30% to 14.1 million barrels per day in April. Oil producers have responded by filling up storage tanks around the world, but they are rapidly running out of space. Forecasters think storage tanks worldwide will be full by early May. At that point, well shut-ins will become inevitable. A federal intervention is a secondary factor in whether oil demand recovers. Far more important will be whether Americans decide to start driving and flying again. The idea of a bailout has generated divisions within the oil industry. Some players are wary of accepting government stipulations. Others argue that producers who took on mountains of debt and burned through cash in better times have no business receiving a lifeline from the government. "Propping up zombie E&PS is not a path to a healthier shale E&P industry," Arjun Murti, a ConocoPhillips board member, tweeted on Friday with the hashtag #NoOilBailout. E&Ps is a reference to exploration and production firms. An oil bailout could be a political bargaining chip in stimulus negotiations to secure federal investments in clean energy. While a bailout for shale drillers is unlikely to change the industry's emission trajectory, investments in infrastructure and electric vehicle support would green the economy. "The direct impact on emissions will generally be limited due to oil production — it's economic demand for oil that will be the emissions driver," Gilbert said.
Don't Bail Out Oil and Gas -- Use the Money for Environmental Cleanup Instead - Despite the evidence that the fossil fuel industry in the U.S. is not profitable and basically a giant money pit, President Trump tweeted last Tuesday that he has directed his cabinet to come up with a bailout plan for the floundering industry. The announcement came on the heels of a historic plunge in crude oil that sent prices deep into the red.Because of decreases in demand due to COVID-19 and a long history of being propped up solely by government funding, the fracking industry in the U.S. looks to be on the verge of collapse, with a huge wave of bankruptcies to come. As these fossil fuel companies go bankrupt or shutter completely, they shirk cleanup responsibilities – and the cost eventually falls on the taxpayer.Instead of bailing out the moribund oil and gas industry, environmental advocates say that the federal government should take a step toward transitioning away from fossil fuels and put money into cleaning up idling or abandoned oil and gas wells. These contaminated spots dot both public and private land as, through the decades, many oil and gas companies have left wells unfilled when the companies become insolvent. Regulatory agencies also allow companies to leave a well idle for years even if they have no intention to turn back to them, providing another avenue to avoid cleaning up. Across the country, there are millions of unplugged oil and gas wells waiting to be cleaned and sealed according to Environmental Protection Agency estimates. The numbers vary, since, due to lax regulation by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and other state regulators, there aren’t many records of how many of these wells exist or even where these wells are. In Pennsylvania, according to state officials, there are anywhere from 200,000 to 750,000 sites where the operator has gone bankrupt, leaving so-called orphan wells. As long as they remain unplugged, idling and orphan wells are an environmental hazard. They leak the potent greenhouse gas methane into the air and contaminate ground and surface water, posing risks to both wildlife and humans. “The [oil and gas] industry might view these apportioned and abandoned wells as benign,” said Nadia Steinzor, community empowerment project manager at Earthworks. But “the fact that they are, in many cases, literally falling apart, and are not being maintained or overseen is a serious environmental problem.”
'Whack-a-mole stuff': Trump's oil rescue hits a slippery path – POLITICO - President Donald Trump and his advisers are offering a barrage of increasingly urgent ideas for propping up faltering oil producers — but people in the industry are skeptical that anything will come of it.The administration has so far jettisoned plans to buy oil for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, nixed an idea to eliminate royalty payments for energy produced on federal lands and dropped a discussion of paying oil companies not to produce oil. The latest idea floated last week calls for the Treasury Department to create a fund to lend money to struggling oil producers — and take partial ownership stakes in the companies while requiring them to reduce their output.“This is whack-a-mole stuff,” said one oil industry official involved in the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak frankly about the administration’s efforts. “There is a huge interest to ‘do something’ to help. But it all sounds good until step two.”Like most parts of the economy, the oil industry has been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The crash in oil prices that saw U.S. crude futures sink into negative territory last week for the first time in history rattled an industry that has weathered booms and busts for decades. Companies that had lifted U.S. oil production to record levels above 13 million barrels per day in recent months have slashed spending, laid off workers and shut down an estimated 900,000 barrels per day of output since the middle of March. But even market-driven production cuts in the U.S. and planned reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia have failed to offset the global collapse in demand, as the spread of Covid-19 has shrunk consumption by an estimated 20 million to 30 million barrels per day.That has left the Trump administration scrambling to try to prop up a U.S. oil industry the president regularly praises for achieving global "energy dominance." Two energy industry officials confirmed to POLITICO that the White House and Treasury Department have raised the idea of the government buying stakes in oil companies and forcing them to scale back production, which could push prices higher. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated on Friday that taking equity stakes in companies could be on the table.
Exxon loses $610 million in the first quarter on writedowns tied to plunging oil - Exxon Mobil on Friday reported its first loss in decades as oil prices plunged to historic lows following a drop-off in demand caused by the coronavirus. The oil giant lost $610 million in the first quarter due to $2.9 billion in write-downs tied to falling oil prices. Exxon posted a GAAP loss of 14 cents per share, and a non-GAAP profit of 53 cents per share. Revenue fell to $56.16 billion. In the same quarter a year earlier the company earned $2.35 billion, or 55 cents per share, on revenue of $63.63 billion. Shares of Exxon slipped slipped 7.2% on Friday. "COVID-19 has significantly impacted near-term demand, resulting in oversupplied markets and unprecedented pressure on commodity prices and margins," CEO Darren Woods said in a statement. The company said that oil-equivalent production in the first quarter rose 2% year over year to 4 million barrels per day. Looking forward, however, Exxon plans to cut production by around 400,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day due to "economic shut-ins and market curtailments as [a] result of COVID-19." West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, has dropped more than 70% this year, which has forced energy companies to slash spending and in some cases, cut their dividend. But Exxon has said the company has no plans to cut its dividend, and on Wednesday, ahead of the earnings release, the company said it would maintain its dividend at 87 cents per share. In April, Exxon slashed its capital spending plan for 2020 by 30% from $33 billion to around $23 billion, and said it would cut operating expenses by roughly 15%. The company said the largest share of the reduction would be in the Permian Basin, where it's easier to adjust short-cycle investments. .
Trump Poised to Unveil Bridge Loans for Ailing Oil Companies – - The Trump administration may announce as soon as Thursday a plan to offer loans to the ailing oil industry possibly in exchange for a financial stake, according to two people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette have already briefed President Donald Trump on a plan to provide financial aid to oil drillers beset by a historic crash in prices, the people said. Brouillette, during a conference call Tuesday with an industry group, said Mnuchin was leaning toward aid that includes two separate programs -- bridge loans and emergency lending authority through the U.S. Federal Reserve -- designed to help smaller and medium sized companies.“This is not going to be a bailout,” Mnuchin told reporters in the White House Wednesday. He said a team at both the Treasury and the Energy department are talking with people around the world and are considering “a lot of different strategies.”Trump said an announcement would come “shortly.”The move comes as companies coping with a devastating plunge in prices have been laying off tens of thousands of workers and idling drilling rigs while asking for government assistance as they seek to stave off bankruptcies. Trump last week vowed to make funds available to oil and gas companies, saying he would “never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down.”Mnuchin said the administration was also exploring the opportunity to store another several hundred million barrels of oil, which would exceed the current physical capacity of the government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.The administration has been considering a way around that physical barrier, by buying undeveloped oil reserves and making them part of the U.S. emergency stockpile. Under the approach, the government would effectively pay some domestic drillers to halt production indefinitely -- or at least until prices rebound.Trump earlier helped broker a deal by top international oil producers to pull nearly 10 million barrels of crude from the market. Yet demand has collapsed by at least twice that amount and storage tanks will keep filling with crude as long as coronavirus restrictions keep planes grounded and drivers off the roads.If the federal government steps in, some forms of lending would involve it taking a stake in the companies -- a condition oil companies are likely loathe to accept, according to the two people familiar with the discussions. The Trump administration has been working to identify oil companies that would be eligible for loans under the existing Main Street program without being forced to establish a new industry-focused initiative that could be unpopular with the public, said a person familiar with the matter who, like the other people, asked not to be named detailing private deliberations.
Fed Changes Open Door for More Drillers to Get Loans – The Federal Reserve revamped its Main Street Lending Program in ways that will allow battered oil companies to qualify for the aid after industry allies lobbied the Trump administration for changes.Larger, more heavily indebted companies can now qualify and use the money to pay off prior loans under the changes the central bank announced Thursday.The move opens the door to more oil and gas producers, said Senator Kevin Cramer, a Republican from North Dakota, who had pressed the administration on the issue as energy companies struggle to survive an epic collapse in fuel demand and crude prices. “With the decrease in demand and oversupply due to the global oil price war creating a valley for these highly leveraged companies, this expansion will help them bridge the gap as we look to reopen America,” Cramer said in an emailed statement Thursday.Environmentalists blasted the shifts they said rewarded oil companies that took on too much debt and were overproducing crude even before the coronavirus pandemic caused demand to plunge.“These changes directly reflect demands from polluters and their favorite members of Congress,” said Lukas Ross with the environmental groupFriends of the Earth. “Long before the coronavirus, the drillers were in deep trouble. Now frackers want to pay back their debts with our money. Trump’s big oil bailout must be stopped.” For weeks, oil industry advocates have warned the original program structure would prevent beleaguered drillers from accessing capital under the program.Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, and the Independent Petroleum Association of America argued oil companies needed more flexibility to useMain Street loans to repay existing debt -- something that was previously off limits but will now be allowed under some conditions.Maximum loan totals under the Main Street program are also being hiked to$200 million -- from an earlier $150 million cap viewed as too low to help oil producers.“Great news out of the Fed today in support of struggling U.S. energy companies,” Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said in a tweet Thursday. He added that he would “continue” his work with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to provide “other relief” to the industry.The Fed said the changes were not targeted to the oil and gas industry or any industry in particular but followed additional research into what slice of U.S. companies don’t have ready access to capital markets.Nevertheless, the new terms are likely to open it up to a wider group of energy firms, and overseers worried the Fed was bending to pressure.“The major changes announced today mirror the top requests of the oil and gas industry,” said Bharat Ramamurti, a member of the congressional panel appointed to scrutinize implementation of the Fed’s and part of the Treasury’s virus-relief programs. “That raises questions about how the changes promote the broader public interest -- especially when these companies will still have no real obligation to retain or rehire their workers,” Ramamurti said on Twitter.
Oilfield Services Headcount Continues to Shrink - The effects of the coronavirus outbreak and volatile oil markets are forcing many companies to continue with headcount reductions and facility closures. Cameron Drilling recently announced plans to permanently close its entire plant facility at 2101 S. Broadway Avenue, Moore, OK 73160. Approximately 74 employees will be separated from employment, with 59 separations occurring during the 14-day period beginning June 23, 2020, and an additional 15 occurring during the 14-day period beginning July 20, 2020. The employee separations are expected to be permanent. “We are trying our best to retain and transfer as many employees as possible,” the company stated in an April 15 notice to the Texas Workforce Commission. “The speed and vast reach of the coronavirus outbreak, as well as the declaration of a national emergency, and national directives for individuals to avoid congregating, limit travel and to work remotely was unforeseeable and caused, and will continue to cause, among other things, a drastic impact on our business,” the company said in a written statement. Meanwhile, Midland, Texas-based ProPetro also launched a mass layoff at its Hydraulic Fracturing Operations facility at 2518 FM 307 and its Coil Tubing Operations facility at #4 Industrial Loop in Midland on April 16. Approximately 18 employees were impacted at the Coil Tubing Facility while 566 were affected at the Hydraulic Fracturing Facility. The separations are permanent, according to the company. Separately, in Houston Diamond Offshore Drilling reported a mass layoff at its corporate office at 15415 Katy Freeway, Houston, TX 77094 on April 15. About 102 employees will be impacted. The separations began on the date of the notice and are expected to be accomplished by April 28, 2020.
North Dakota regulators to decide if producing oil at low prices is 'waste' - — North Dakota regulators will hear testimony May 20 on whether oil production at current low prices amounts to wasting natural resources, potentially setting the stage for output restrictions, like those under consideration in Texas and Oklahoma. The state's active rig count has plummeted in recent weeks in response to the global oil price crash. In March, North Dakota implemented a waiver program allowing oil and natural gas drillers to keep wells in non-completed or inactive status longer than regulations typically allow. The policy was designed to prevent producers from either bringing more unwanted crude onto the market or being forced to abandon wells completely. Ahead of the May 20 hearing, the North Dakota Industrial Commission asked industry to weigh in on a wide range of oil market issues, including price volatility, oversupply amid reduced demand for North Dakota oil, hedged production, impacts on royalty owners when oil prices turn negative, and the challenges of curbing or shutting in production from North Dakota wells. Written comments are due to the commission's oil and gas division by May 15. During the hearing, speakers will be able to testify by phone for 15 minutes each. North Dakota lost about 40% of its drilling rigs over the course of three weeks in March as the impact of low global oil prices and plunging demand started to be felt in one of the top US oil production regions. The state has 31 active drilling rigs as of Wednesday, according to the Department of Mineral Resources. The rig count has plunged from 55 in January, 54 in February, and 52 at the start of March. North Dakota regulators expect the state's rig count to fall to the mid- to high 20s, in line with the 27 rigs seen during the 2015 price collapse, DMR Director Lynn Helms told reporters April 14. About 175,000 b/d of production was shut-in during March at 3,600 wells, Helms said. Another 1,000 wells were shut-in as of mid-April, bringing the state's shut-in production to 260,000 b/d. North Dakota producers also face shrinking oil storage capacity, which Helms said was "nearly full and looks like it could be full by June."
Hamm's Continental Sued Over Failed $200MM Oil Deal-- Continental Resources Inc. is being sued by a closely held oil driller that accused the shale giant of walking away from a $200 million deal following an historic collapse in crude prices. Casillas Petroleum Resource Partners and Continental signed a so-called purchase and sale agreement on March 6, according to the lawsuit, one trading session before crude tumbled about $10 a barrel for the worst daily crash in almost 20 years. “Almost immediately after the execution” of the contract, Continental sought to delay the closing that was set for the end of March, Casillas said in the suit filed in Tulsa County District Court in Oklahoma. On March 24, Casillas said Continental sent a letter attempting to terminate the deal, citing issues that included alleged wastewater incidents. Casillas said it faces “irreparable harm” if Continental doesn’t hold up its end of the original agreement. A representative for Continental didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Reuters first reported the lawsuit. It’s the latest example of an oil and gas deal running into snags amid the unprecedented plunge in crude prices. BP Plc was forced to renegotiate the terms of a sale of its Alaska business to Hilcorp Energy Co., and Devon Energy Corp. had to revise its sale of North Texas shale assets to Banpu Kalnin Ventures LLC.
US seeks return of wetlands permit nixed in pipeline case (AP) — U.S. government attorneys on Monday sought to put on hold a recent court ruling that canceled a permitting program used to approve oil and gas pipelines and other utility work through wetlands and streams across the nation. The attorneys said letting the April 15 ruling stand would hamper thousands of construction projects overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. U.S. District Judge Brian Morris in Great Falls declared the permitting program, known as Nationwide Permit 12, had been reauthorized in 2017 without sufficient consideration of its potential environmental harm. That prompted Army Corps officials last week to suspend the program. The case before Morris involved the disputed Keystone XL crude oil pipeline from Canada. But pipeline and electric utility industry representatives said it could affect both construction and maintenance on potentially thousands of projects. That includes major pipelines like the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline in Virginia and power lines from wind turbines and generating stations in many parts of the U.S. The Army Corps has broad jurisdiction over U.S. waterways. It uses the blanket permit to approve qualifying pipelines and other utility projects after only minimal environmental review. Environmentalists say that allows projects to skirt water protection laws and ignores the cumulative harm caused by thousands of stream and wetlands crossings. U.S. Justice Department attorneys argued in a court filing that Morris had overstepped by applying his ruling not just to Keystone but to the entire program. “The Court has eliminated Nationwide Permit 12 for use by any utility line project anywhere in the country, which has extraordinary and immediate implications for numerous projects,” the attorneys wrote. Since the blanket permit was renewed three years ago it has been used more than 37,000 times, according to federal officials.
PIPELINES: Judge rejects Army Corps' bid to resume permitting -- Thursday, April 30, 2020 -- A federal court this week declined to immediately halt an order blocking the Army Corps of Engineers from authorizing national water permits for power line and pipeline projects that cross federally protected waters.
US Marine Service Official Reveals the Future of Oil Tankers Stranded Off California Coast - - Late last week, US media reported that drone footage released on 23 April by the American Coast Guard showed a total of 27 large oil tankers floating off the coast of southern California. The vessels had reportedly been turned into storage tanks while waiting to dock at ports.Several oil tankers currently floating off the coast of California are due to depart in the next few days, while most of the vessels may stay there indefinitely, Captain J. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said on Wednesday.“There are 20 tankers [in the area], and 14 of them are expected to remain there indefinitely or for a long time; six tankers should leave within the next five days”, he pointed out.Louttit added that five more tankers are expected to arrive this week, and that four of them are set to unload their cargo while one such vessel will anchor for a long time. “So we have a mixture of those [tankers] which anchor or get unloaded, depending on which company they belong to”, he said, referring to a total of 28 vessels, including five cruise liners, that are currently in his area of responsibility.The remarks come a few days after The Los Angeles Times reported that drone footage released on 23 April by the US Coast Guard showed a total of 27 large oil tankers floating off the coast of southern California. The tankers, which were reportedly turned into storage tanks, could be seen anchored at a safe distance from each other near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Commander Marshall Newberry, from Coast Guard Sector Los Angeles and Long Beach, said in a statement late last week that “due to the unique nature of this situation, the US Coast Guard is constantly evaluating and adapting our procedures to ensure the safety of the vessels at anchor and the protection of the surrounding environment […]”.He spoke after Reuters cited unnamed shipping industry sources as saying that about160 million barrels of oil are currently being stored in large tankers outside shipping ports due to a lack of onshore storage space.Since very large crude carriers (VLCCs) were chartered to store oil at sea in February, the number has increased to 60, and is forecast to triple in the upcoming months. The VLCCs are reportedly mostly located near Singapore and in the US Gulf Coast.The current oversupply, which has already reached around 9 million barrels per day, was triggered by a drop in global oil demand, as a result of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.The glut fueled unprecedented trading on 20 April, when the price for May oil contracts plummeted below zero, breaking every low for crude prices since 1946. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other petroleum-exporting nations within OPEC+ agreed to slash their oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day through June, in a bid to remove some of the oversupply from the market.
ConocoPhillips slashes Alaska production amid glut, pandemic (AP) — ConocoPhillips Alaska plans to reduce its North Slope production for the month of June by about 100,000 barrels a day, or nearly half its total output, though no layoffs were included with the announcement, the company said Thursday. The company said the decision is in response to “unacceptably low oil prices resulting from global oil demand destruction caused by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with a global oversupply of oil.” This move comes on top of a request by trans-Alaska pipeline system operator Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. that companies deliver 90% of what they had been delivering in anticipation of high inventory in May. Natalie Lowman, a spokeswoman for ConocoPhillips Alaska, said that should be lifted by late May, which is when she said the production ramp-down announced Thursday is expected to begin. “These are two separate actions that should not overlap,” she said by email. She said Thursday’s announcement did not include layoffs. “We continue to monitor the market situation. But at this time, based on our current outlook, we chose to maintain organization capacity so we can resume programs in the future,” she said. For the first quarter of the year, Houston-based ConocoPhillips said its Alaska operations produced the equivalent of 218,000 barrels a day.
Diesel spill fouls bay in northern Haida Gwaii | Georgia Straight -A forestry company has confirmed that a diesel oil spill took place in Haida Gwaii's Dinan Bay (Diinan Kahlii) during the early morning of April 22. On April 23, Taan Forest—a wholly owned subsidiary of the Haida Enterprise Corporation (HaiCo)—announced in a release that 4,500 litres of diesel fuel had leaked from a company barge into the ocean near the mouth of the bay after a valve malfunction involving a diesel generator. Dinan Bay is in Masset Inlet on Graham Island, Haida Gwaii's largest and most northerly island. The Haida Nation-owned company said the spill happened between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m on April 22. Taan Forest noted that company representatives were working with the B.C. Environment Ministry, the coast guard, and the Council of the Haida Nation. It added that oil booms and sorbent pads were utilized as soon as the spill was noticed and that biologists would be called in to determine impacts on marine life. According to the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), diesel fuel is lighter than water and cannot sink to the seafloor. In a fact sheet, the NOAA said: "Over 90% of the diesel in a small spill incident into the marine environment is either evaporated or naturally dispersed into the water column in time frames of a couple of hours to a couple of days." And although diesel fuel is highly toxic to marine organisms, including fish, and some diesel after a spill in open water might enter the water column as a result of wave and wind action, the NOAA said it poses little threat to marine life.
Environment experts investigate how oil got into the River Nene in Northampton - Environment Agency workers are investigating how oil got into the River Nene today, Saturday. A spokesperson for the agency told the Chron: “We are aware that some oil has entered the River Nene. We understand this has come from the Dallington Brook, a tributary of the Nene. “Our contractors are currently working to contain and remove the oil. We ask members of the public to please refrain from attending the scene, to allow our contractors to continue their work.”
BP's net profit slides 67% in the first quarter following a historic fall in oil prices - Energy giant BP reported a significant fall in first-quarter net profit on Tuesday, as oil prices continue to dive amid intensifying concerns about the coronavirus crisis and dwindling storage capacity. The U.K.-based oil and gas company posted first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $800 million. That compared with $2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2019, reflecting a fall of 67%. Analysts had expected first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit to come in at $987 million, according to data compiled by Refinitiv. BP's results come shortly after a historic plunge in oil prices. The May contract of U.S. West Texas Intermediate plunged below zero to trade in negative territory for the first time in history last week. Trading volume was thin given it was the day before the contract's expiration date, but the move lower was unprecedented nonetheless. WTI futures had fetched more than $60 a barrel at the start of the year. A dramatic fall-off in demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak has sent oil prices tumbling. On Tuesday, the June contract of WTI traded at $11.36 per barrel, more than 11% lower for the session, while international benchmark stood at $20.22, up around 1%. "The real situation that we have here is a fundamental situation of supply and demand," Looney said. "Demand in the second quarter, we think, will be down around 16 million barrels per day worldwide this year. And that's about five times the previous demand destruction which we saw in the global financial crisis in 2008 to 2009." BP's debt rose to $51.4 billion at the end of the first quarter, $6 billion higher than the quarter before. And the firm's debt-to-capital ratio, or gearing, jumped to 36% through the first three months of the year. The company also announced a dividend of 10.5 cents per share was announced for the quarter.
BP hikes debt, keeps dividend as coronavirus hammers profits - (Reuters) - BP’s first-quarter profit tumbled by two thirds and its debt climbed to its highest on record as the coronavirus crisis hammered oil demand, but the energy major kept its dividend despite warning of exceptional uncertainty. London-based BP said it expected significantly lower refining margins in the second quarter when global restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus reached their peak, throttling consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. BP shares were up 1.16% at 1312 GMT, as analysts questioned whether sticking with the dividend and hiking debt was a prudent strategy. The broader European energy index .SXEP rose 2.5%. “I can see many reasons why this recovery will take longer and therefore I think we’re in this for quite some time,” Chief Executive Bernard Looney, who took over in February, told Reuters. The company said oil and gas production faced “significant uncertainties” linked to tumbling oil demand and plunging prices, as well as due to a deal between OPEC, Russia and other producers to cut global supplies of crude by about 10%. BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit, its definition of net income, of $800 million, beating the $710 million forecast by analysts in a company-provided poll. The company reported $2.4 billion profit a year earlier. But BP, whose net debt climbed to its highest since at least 2015, kept its dividend of 10.5 cents per share and said it had repurchased shares worth $776 million in the quarter.
Oil major Shell slashes dividend for the first time since World War II - Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday cut its dividend to shareholders for the first time since World War II, following a dramatic slide in oil prices amid the coronavirus crisis. The board at Shell said it had decided to reduce the oil major's first-quarter dividend to $0.16 per share, down from $0.47 at the end of 2019. That's a reduction of 66%. "Shareholder returns are a fundamental part of Shell's financial framework," Chad Holliday, chair of the board of Royal Dutch Shell, said in a statement. "However, given the risk of a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, weaker commodity prices, higher volatility and uncertain demand outlook, the Board believes that maintaining the current level of shareholder distributions is not prudent." Shell also reported that net income attributable to shareholders on a current cost of supplies (CCS) basis and excluding identified items, which is used as a proxy for net profit, came in at $2.9 billion for the first quarter of 2020. That compared with $5.3 billion in the first quarter of 2019, reflecting a year-on-year fall of 46%. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected first-quarter net profit to come in at $2.5 billion for the quarter. Shares of Shell dropped to the bottom of the European benchmark during early morning deals, down more than 7%. Last week, Norway's Equinor became the first oil major to cut its dividend this earnings season. It raised concern that other energy giants may follow suit, although BP, which reported Tuesday, maintained its dividend.
'We are making a lot of money' amid the oil supply glut, Nordic American Tankers CEO says - Oil tanker companies have watched their stocks climb as the crude market toiled in recent weeks. And business, according to the founder and head of Nordic American Tankers, business is better than ever. "We are making a lot of money at this time, improving our balance sheet tremendously, and I have never seen such a strong market," Herbjørn Hansson, CEO of the Bermuda-based tanker company, told CNBC's Jim Cramer in a "Mad Money" interview. "And I've been around for a little while." Nordic was the third-largest player in the market at the end of 2019. Amid a glut of global supply and a global coronavirus pandemic that has sapped consumer demand for energy, crude prices have collapsed this year. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for the first time fell into negative territory Monday when the May contract traded in the red as low as $37 per barrel. Producers were in effect paying other entities to take barrels of oil out of their hands because storage is very limited. That has been a boon for companies, like Nordic, who transport the liquid in bulk. Given the state of the market, Nordic can charge nearly $70,000 per day for ship usage, Hansson said, who counts big oil companies such as Exxon, Mobil and British Petroleum among its customers. Nordic's revenue is projected to come in at $88.5 million when it reports for the first quarter next month, up 65% from the same period a year ago, according to FactSet data. "We don't speculate in oil. We speculate in carrying oil and that's a different story. And my point is that I prioritize dividends," he said. "We have a strong market, and this is the strongest market I've seen in my lifetime and I've been around for quite a while."
Pirates are expanding in West Africa, threatening offshore oil storage - As international oil companies (IOCs) grapple with a historic plunge in crude prices, a rise in piracy is also poised to threaten supply chains. The first quarter of 2020 saw a spike in piracy around the world, with 47 attacks compared to 38 for the same period last year, according to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB). The Gulf of Guinea, a key production hub surrounded by eight oil exporting countries in West Africa, has emerged as a global hot spot, accounting for 21 attacks so far this year and 90% of all kidnappings at sea in 2019. Most attacks still occur in Nigerian waters, but piracy is expected to rise in 2020 and 2021 and expand further into neighboring states, posing serious concerns for shipping and international oil companies, according to research by political risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. The number of crew kidnapped off the Gulf of Guinea climbed 50% to 121 in 2019, up from 78 in 2018, and the Gulf has now surpassed more well-known areas such as the Strait of Malacca – a waterway which separates Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesia – to become the global hotspot. "This trend will continue into 2020 and into 2021 as regional security forces, hampered by security hot spots across the continent, and a lack of adequate equipment, continue to be unable to effectively tackle piracy," Alexandre Raymakers, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a research note. "The prospect of international assistance is equally remote as international shipping routes avoid the Gulf of Guinea. Both regional shipping and oil and gas operators should expect further disruptions to supply chains, export routes and increased costs as more ransom payments will be necessary to liberate crews." Around 60% of incidents in 2019 occurred in Nigerian territorial waters, specifically in the areas surrounding the Niger Delta and, to a lesser extent, the shipping hub of the Port of Lagos. Raymakers highlighted that the socio-economic factors underpinning these incidents were unlikely to change.
"Driving The Gringos In The White House Crazy": Iran & Venezuela Deepen Sanctions-Busting Cooperation - Two so-called 'rogue states' recently targeted for US-imposed regime change are helping each other fight coronavirus as well as Washington-led sanctions. Late last week it was revealed Venezuela received a huge boost in the form of oil refinery materials and chemicals to fix the catalytic cracking unit at the 310,000 barrels-per-day Cardon refinery, essential to the nation's gas supply.This as a fuel and food shortage crisis has driven protests and clashes with police, especially in hard-hit rural areas, over the past month. “Thanks to the support of our allies in the Islamic Republic of Iran... We will overcome our difficulties,” Erling Rojas, vice minister for refining and petrochemicals in Venezuela’s Oil Ministry, stated when the much-needed refinery parts arrived last Thursday.He further underscored in colorfully provocative rhetoric that Iran’s support is “driving the gringos in the White House crazy.”It's expected such sanctions-busting cooperation will continue between the two countries, as there's also been an uptick in planes flying directly between capitals, as Reuters reported: Planes flying from Tehran landed at the Las Piedras airport on the Paraguana peninsula in western Venezuela, where Cardon is located, on Wednesday and Thursday, according to data on flight-tracking service FlightRadar24 reviewed by Reuters. The planes were operated by private Iranian airline Mahan Air. Washington imposed sanctions on Mahan Air in 2011, saying it provided financial and other support to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Venezuela is also busy attempting to restore operations at the 146,000-barrels-per-day El Palito refinery in central Venezuela as well. The two sides are further said to be deepening cooperation in terms of response to the coronavirus pandemic. It's hit the Islamic Republic far worse over the past months, while Venezuela's numbers are deeply uncertain given what's attributed to lack of widespread testing and transparency.
Why oil prices went negative and why they can go negative again - The investing world was gobsmacked and eyes glued to CNBC when oil futures went negative last week. If you missed it the first time, don't worry it could happen again. Oil storage around the world is filling up, fast. Onshore tanks in most parts of the U.S. are at capacity, and the rest of the world isn't far behind. Desperate traders and producers are using any resource to store their crude. Oil tankers sit anchored off the coast of Long Beach, California, U.S., on Wednesday, April 22, 2020. Almost three dozen ships — scattered in waters from Long Beach to the San Francisco Bay — are mostly acting as floating storage for oil that's going unused as the coronavirus pandemic shutters businesses and takes drivers off the road. Oil supertankers are looking like petroleum paparazzi, crowding the Los Angeles shoreline, either as floating storage or waiting on some kind of turn in sentiment. With prices higher in coming months, for now it pays to sit on oil and hope to sell it for more money down the pipeline. The OPEC+ and G20 production cuts begin Friday, May 1st. But there's already an armada of oil tankers heading our way right now, ready to give us 40+ million more barrels of oil no one needs. Much of that will go to the Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva refinery in Texas, but overall refinery output is already down to 67% and may get cut further because no one is driving. If refineries ultimately don't want oil, it has little to no value. If you have oil and nowhere to put it, it can have negative value. The key question right now is how much time is left until everything is full: every tank, every ship, every hole in the ground? Depending on whom you ask, it's anywhere from two weeks to maybe two months, best case. Oil industry infrastructure is large and labyrinthine, and full of smart, creative people who may be able to extend current capacity through human ingenuity, thus postponing what no one previously could even dream of: nowhere to go, and negative prices. The industry is under pressure like never before. Absent a sharp demand return, production will need to be reduced more rapidly than what's happening now. Though only a few weeks into the first round of capital spending cuts, U.S. producers may have to cut again, and soon. The industry is facing unprecedented demand, job and wealth destruction. Yet some continue to pay for the same barrel of oil three times. They spend to take it out of the ground, spend to move it somewhere else, and spend to store it somewhere, perhaps even back in the ground. It has to stop or the industry will.
Low liquidity and limited available storage pushed WTI crude oil futures prices below zero - - U.S. EIA - On Monday, April 20, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil front-month futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were priced in negative dollars per barrel (b) for the first time since trading began in 1983. At about 2:30 p.m. ET, WTI traded as low as -$40.32/b; prices remained below zero for part of the following trading day. Market participants that hold WTI futures contracts through expiration must make or take physical delivery of WTI crude oil in Cushing, Oklahoma, unless they have made other arrangements ahead of time. Typically, most market participants close any futures contracts ahead of their expiration through cash settlement—buying or selling offsetting contracts—to avoid taking physical delivery; only about 1% of futures traded go to physical delivery. The extreme market events of April 20 and April 21 were driven by several factors, including the inability of traders who had purchased futures to find other market participants to sell futures contracts to. In addition, in this case, the scarcity and high cost of available crude oil storage meant several market participants were heavily incentivized to close their positions before having to physically settle their contracts, with some contract holders resorting to selling their futures contracts at negative prices, in effect paying a counterparty to allow them to exit their positions. Although the April 20 WTI price movements were extreme, several factors suggest that the phenomenon of negative WTI prices will be confined to the financial market, with few sellers in physical markets paying to sell their oil. Under normal conditions, taking delivery of crude oil at Cushing purchased from the WTI futures market is straightforward. The normal physical settlement process has been affected, however, by the recent decline in the availability of uncommitted crude oil storage capacity. Consumption of crude oil and petroleum products has sharply declined following the travel restrictions and general economic slowdown in mitigation efforts for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). As of the week ending April 17, U.S. refinery runs fell to 12.8 million barrels per day (b/d), 4.1 million b/d (24%) less than the same time last year. As a result of this extreme demand shock, excess imported and domestically produced crude oil volumes are being placed into storage. Although EIA data indicate that some storage remains available at Cushing, some of this physically unfilled storage may have already been leased or otherwise committed, limiting the uncommitted storage available for financial contract holders without pre-existing arrangements. In this case, these contract holders would likely have to pay much higher rates to storage operators for any uncommitted space available. Taken together, these factors suggest that the phenomenon of negative WTI prices is mainly confined to the financial market. The positive pricing of other crude oil benchmarks (with the Brent contract for June 2020 delivery closing at $19.33/b on April 21), positive prices for longer-dated WTI prices, and positive spot prices for other (but not all) U.S. crude oils suggest that the recent price movements were predominantly driven by the timing of the May 2020 contract expiration against the backdrop of precipitous decline in consumption.
The Oil Market Is Broken - OPEC and its partners have been cutting production since September 2016. Between September and November 2016 they cut production by more than 1.7 million barrels a day, a historical cut that was wrongly prolonged throughout the expansionary phase of the global economy. In December 2018 they cut production again. OPEC’s most serious mistake in recent years has been forgetting its mission and principles and trying to artificially inflate the price of oil. No oil-producing country lost money at 2016 prices, the only thing they could not afford was to pay huge subsidies, civil servants and non-oil expenses that many OPEC members finance with export earnings.This strategic error led to two negative effects for producing countries. On the one hand, supply diversification and technological substitution accelerated. Customers responded. And, on the other hand, the market share of OPEC fell to almost a decade-low. The subsequent fiscal and monetary effects turned a strategic error into a disaster. The vast majority of these countries entered into significant fiscal and trade deficits (twin deficits) and, in the absence of local and international demand for their domestic currency, the vast majority increased their US dollar-denominated debt. With falling exports and dollar revenues, now they face a massive dollar shortage in the middle of a demand collapse. Those production cuts, moreover, worked as an unintended subsidy to United States producers. The short-term rise in the price of oil due to the supply cuts meant an unprecedented capital injection for the North American oil industry, which was going through very dire financial times. OPEC bailed out shale and lost market share. This led to the United States reaching an all-time production record, beating Saudi Arabia and Russia in daily production.Additionally, between 2015 and 2019 we witnessed an expansion of credit and historical levels of the global money supply. The oil industry became one of the main areas of malinvestment in the years of massive liquidity and low yields. This perpetuated excess capacity and kept inefficient companies unnecessarily alive. OPEC cuts added another layer of support that ultimately came back to bite producer nations.America’s storage problems were already evident years before the Covid-19 crisis. The United States has a historic problem with the storage and evacuation of oil. Cushing storage issues surfaced already in 2007. Back in 2007, a price crash on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) occurred when a Valero refinery in Texas was temporarily closed. Storage filled quickly and the reference price of crude oil collapsed. The United States has 91 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity in Oklahoma, but most refineries are a long distance away or in other states, and there is an evacuation problem that was not solved when some major pipeline projects were halted by government and judicial decisions. All of these factors have been key to the perfect storm, which was generated in April 2020 when the May WTI crude oil contract price came to a negative price. Storage capacity collapsed with slumping demand, which in March and April fell in the United States to the lowest levels seen since 1995. According to Bloomberg, oil demand in the United States would drop more than 9 million barrels a day in April. 2020, erasing all the consumption growth of the decade. The collapse of the price of crude oil led to monster “margin calls” and an urgent fire sale when nobody wanted to buy and those who could execute the contract had no place to store it.
Energy demand set to fall the most on record this year amid coronavirus pandemic, IEA says - The International Energy Agency said Thursday it expects global energy demand to plunge this year in what the Paris-based agency called the biggest drop since World War II. With roughly 4.2 billion people around the world subject to some form of lockdown in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the IEA is forecasting a 6% decline in energy demand for the year. In absolute terms this is the largest on record. Percentage wise, it's the steepest decline in 70 years. The demand hit from the pandemic is expected to be seven times greater than the decline in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. "In absolute terms, the decline is unprecedented — the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world's third largest energy consumer," the agency's Global Energy Report said. The projections are based on the assumption that shelter-in-place and social distancing measures will slowly ease in the coming months, with a gradual economic recovery following. Under a faster return-to-business scenario, the IEA said demand loss could be limited to 3.8%, while a possible second wave of the virus could cause a greater than 6% decline. "This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today's unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before," he added. The impacts have already been felt. In the first quarter, energy demand fell 3.8% year over year, wiping out all of 2019's demand growth. Coal was hit especially hard in the quarter after the outbreak brought much of China, a coal-based economy, to a standstill. Cheaper gas prices as well as warmer temperatures also contributed to the decline. For the year, the IEA projects annual demand to drop 8%, which would be the most since World War II. Oil has also been heavily impacted. Roughly 60% of global demand for crude stems from driving and flying, so with people at home and planes grounded demand has fallen off a cliff. In March, oil demand dropped by a record 10.8 million barrels per day from a year earlier. In April the IEA estimates that demand will fall by 29 million bpd year over year, hitting a level last seen in 1995.
Why the Oil and Gas Industry Will Never Be the Same - When a staple commodity collapses to negative value it signals that something is clearly amiss in the global economy. When it is a global energy source like crude oil, it does not just signal pain in the oil patch, but an economic dislocation evocative of the Great Depression. Rare is the time when a commodity over which nations have fought wars in the past presents itself as something that traders would literally pay you to take it off their collective hands.To be sure, there are good technical reasons why U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI), the underlying commodity representing the NYMEX’s oil futures contract, actually traded negative in the second half of April, and continued to stay low (even though the June contract has now turned positive). Put simply, there is virtually no storage capacity left for a supply glut of the commodity, which likely puts a cap on the price, especially in a world of virtually nonexistent demand. That doesn’t mean you’ll be getting paid any time soon to fill up your car the next time you choose to fill it up with gasoline, or even rewarded for storing some in your swimming pool; after all, Brent Crude, the North Sea oil that serves as a benchmark to the majority of worldwide oil markets, is still trading around $20/barrel. But the economics of production have radically shifted against a huge number of deposits. How does the oil industry respond to these challenges?Oil wells aren’t like sink faucets; if you stop the flow, it’s a lot of work to get the systems running again. And many oil-producing countries and private companies live basically paycheck to paycheck on sales to pay their bills. Economic pain in the United States will lead to more mergers and consolidations across the oil and gas industry, and, for the world’s leading oil export producers, difficult choices to privatize more of their nationalized industries to foreign buyers like China and Western petroleum companies. For many countries that have relied on crude oil for export revenues, notably most of the OPEC countries, the collapse in price spells big trouble. In addition to the largest swing producer, Saudi Arabia, there is Iran, already suffering from the twin ravages of harsh U.S. economic sanctions and a massive outbreak of COVID-19. Venezuela is in dire straits. These are countries with debts to pay off, and investments that require steady—and predictable—flows of capital to sustain. The United States has had so many oil-price crashes in its economic history that dealing with another one is a matter of bureaucratic and financial muscle memory: a matter of forcing mergers for future efficiency, renegotiating debt and subsidizing the idle workforce. While the oil and gas companies may not volunteer to merge on their own at a time when their core products have cratered in value, banks and governments will see the value in simplifying the playing field.
Opinion: Russia is the world’s biggest loser from oil’s crash, and that’s reason to be worried -There was a time when Russia could use energy sales — or energy embargoes, as the case may be — to make Europe tremble. But now the world is awash in energy, and Russia’s recent efforts to reach an entente with the Saudis failed to support oil prices. The Russians have floated conspiracy theories of U.S. and Saudi collaboration designed to cripple the Russian economy with low energy prices and few markets, but that assumes that any conspiracy would need to lower prices. The supply of energy has surged, largely because of the U.S. energy sector, and demand did not keep up. The price of oil already was declining, but now the price has collapsed because of the coronavirus pandemic. The contraction of the global economy inevitably decreased the need for energy. Attempts by OPEC, an organization that in truth is irrelevant to today’s realities, to raise prices have failed. In the 1970s, demand surged and OPEC could manage the supply. Some among us will recall the Arab oil embargo, which defined the 1970s and was the opportunity for countries like the Soviet Union and Iran to create modern economies. The oil producers assumed that their power, and therefore income, would be permanent. But high prices generated a search for new sources of oil and gas, as well as new efficiencies in energy use, and the price fell dramatically in the 1980s. For one, defense budgets soared as Moscow tried to keep pace with U.S. military development, particularly the legendary Star Wars project, as much legend as a project. For another, the price of energy fell, and the Russians were heavily dependent on energy sales. Russia was caught in a vise between defense spending and falling energy prices, and this ultimately undermined the basis of the Soviet Union. Russia’s challenge is not building a new generation of hypersonic missiles, nor investing in advanced technologies. Russia’s challenge now is to avoid collapse. The Russian budget is distributed among its constituent regions, which pay the teachers and doctors and firemen. But with the decline of energy prices, Russia’s budget declines, and as it declines, the regions contract. Russia, a Third World country, has few counters to low energy prices.
Russia Steals Chinese Oil Market Share From Saudi Arabia - China imported 31 percent more oil from Russia last month while its intake of Saudi crude slipped by 1.8 percent compared to March 2019, Reuters reported, citing calculations based on official customs data. Overall crude oil imports rose by 4.5 percent on the year to 9.68 million bpd.Of the total, Russian oil accounted for 1.66 million bpd while Saudi oil accounted for 1.7 million bpd. The Russian oil average for March, while higher on the year, was lower than the average for January and February, the data showed. Imports from the United States were close to zero, and imports from Venezuela were at zero. Imports from Iran, however, were up 11.3 percent from a year ago at over 625,000 bpd.Reuters earlier reported China's oil imports in March would likely be lower than in previous months as refiners cut run rates amid the sluggish demand for fuels even though they continued buying oil to build their stocks. Indeed, Reuters' calculations of imports suggested an average daily intake rate of 10.47 million bpd for January and February.Run rates continue to be reduced at state refiners, but independents are ramping up, Reuters reported. In addition, over the last two months, China was said to have been building its crude reserves, thanks to the cheapest oil in years. Even so, the rate of filling storage was expected to be lower than in previous years because of limited storage capacity, lending less support to oil prices this time around than in past years, Wood Mackenzie said at the end of last month.A lot of oil industry players relied on China to buy a lot of oil to fill its reserves and push prices up. The country is the largest importer of crude, which makes it the natural focus of attention for oil producers when prices crash. However, this time the coronavirus changed everything, including Chinese demand. With storage space being finite, even reserve-filling could not help prices, which are now increasingly likely to remain below $20 a barrel for a long while.
How the oil price capitulation will hit Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and other major exporters - The historic plunge in oil prices last week has left some major exporters of the commodity scrambling to shore up their economies. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May delivery fell by more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel on Monday and expired on Tuesday at $10.01 a barrel. Futures contracts trade by the month. It comes at a time when the coronavirus crisis continues to ravage global demand, the world is awash with oil and traders are quickly running out of places to put it. Remarkably, this led to a situation where producers were effectively having to pay to get oil taken off their hands. An agreement by OPEC and its allies — known as OPEC+ — to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels a day from May 1 eventually put an end to a price war between Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia. However, the absent demand arising from the pandemic has meant the deal has failed to stabilize oil prices. The latest capitulation compounds the problems facing the countries that are most dependent on oil exports for export revenues and government income. Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, had applied for more than $7 billion in emergency funds as of last Tuesday from international lenders including the IMF, World Bank, the African Development Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank. The country depends on oil sales for around 60% of its revenue and 90% of its foreign exchange earnings, though it only accounts for 9% of GDP (gross domestic product), according to the IMF. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva acknowledged in a recent statement that Nigeria faces "twin shocks" from the pandemic and associated oil price plunge. Meanwhile, ratings agencies Fitch and S&P have downgraded Nigeria's credit rating in recent weeks on the back of the oil slump. As part of the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts, Nigeria agreed to reduce its output from around 1.8 million barrels a day to 1.4 million, Oil Minister Timipre Sylva told Nigeria's Punch newspaper on April 10, following the landmark OPEC deal. "We currently do not expect Nigeria to reduce production by nearly that much, as the country has reflected very poor compliance with OPEC agreements in the past," NKC Analyst Cobus de Hart said in Tuesday's note. "Nonetheless, pressure to reduce output has increased, and markedly lower prices could squeeze less-profitable producers."
Oil majors, governments haggle over sharing pain of deepest cuts yet - (Reuters) - From Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to Nigeria and Angola, oil majors are haggling with national governments over how to share out deep production cuts that add to their pain from low oil prices and depressed fuel sales because of the coronavirus pandemic. Oil majors have traditionally escaped big cuts in OPEC nations, such as Nigeria, and have never experienced curbs in countries outside the OPEC club, such as Kazakhstan, where they are protected by special clauses agreed with governments. But those production sharing agreements (PSA) are being laid aside following a pact between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to cut production by 23% to bolster prices as coronavirus lockdowns reduce global energy demand by a third. Such unprecedented output reductions, effective from May 1, are impossible in most nations without the help of majors. Azerbaijan has already asked its BP-led (BP.L) group to cut offshore output, and Kazakhstan was close to a deal with majors to reduce their production as well, sources familiar with the matter said. “We do expect to see volumes reduce in the second quarter because of the OPEC+ agreement,” BP’s Chief Executive Bernard Looney told a conference call on Tuesday, as the London-based company reported a plunge in profit and a spike in debt. During the last oil price crash in 2014-2016, integrated majors, such as BP, suffered a decline in earnings from their upstream or oil production units, but were saved by strong downstream results as consumers profited from cheap fuels. This time round is different. BP said it expected significantly lower refining margins in the second quarter when global restrictions on movement to halt the spread of the virus reach their peak, throttling consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Add to this, forced production cuts across the world, and majors face a perfect storm. BP, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L), Total (TOTF.PA) and Eni (ENI.MI) have showed steady output growth in recent years often surprising on the upside as they tried to lure investors with solid performance and generous dividends to offset pressure from climate change activists. It is not yet possible to predict exact production cuts as majors and many governments are still locked in difficult talks. They could amount to a record-high hundreds of thousands of barrels per day (bpd) per major, or 5%-10% of their output based on the exposure to OPEC+ nations and activity in the United States and Canada, where output has also been falling.
Russia’s Aging Infrastructure Threatens Oil Output Pact – WSJ —Russia’s adherence to a hard-fought oil production deal with Saudi Arabia and the U.S. could be imperiled by its aging industrial infrastructure and the unique challenges of winding down a broad network of wells across its vast landmass. Moscow, Riyadh and Washington agreed in early April to lead a multinational coalition that aims to cut 13% of global oil production through the end of June. The curbs are meant to address a sharp drop in demand caused by global travel restrictions and business shutdowns to prevent the spread of coronavirus. The demand erosion, along with a Saudi-Russian price war and an unprecedented shortage of oil storage space, have contributed to a 63% decline in the global benchmark oil price, since the start of the year. As part of the pact, set to begin on Friday, Russia has committed to its biggest reduction ever, a cut of 2 million barrels a day, or around a fifth of its current production. But Russia’s oil infrastructure isn’t geared to quick and deep production cuts, analysts say. The country faces considerable obstacles, from the frigid Siberian climate where pipelines can burst without oil in them, to low-yielding Soviet-era fields that are expensive to maintain and restart. Russia has some 200,000 active wells—more than most other oil-producing countries—each with unique characteristics and geology. Most of its wells are old and require costly, labor-intensive techniques—such as water or gas injection and hydraulic fracturing—to get the oil out of the ground. Around 90% of Russia’s crude is produced that way, according to Darya Kozlova, head of regulatory affairs at energy advisory Vygon Consulting. Wells in Saudi Arabia have more underground pressure and higher yields. Shale producers in the U.S. have also been nimble in reacting to price fluctuations. “Production cuts of such magnitude have never been done in Russia so we are venturing into the unknown,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister and now an opposition politician. “There are just too many technical challenges to achieve these cuts.” Many producers are finding it hard to come up with the necessary volumes to cut, said Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner in the independent RusEnergy consulting agency who has advised oil companies on the cuts in recent weeks. “They just don’t know how to do it,” he said. “It’s a completely new paradigm.” Major Russian oil companies are lobbying the energy ministry for exemptions from the cuts, according to people familiar with the matter. The ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
How Much Oil Does OPEC Really Have? - In our current COVID-19 world, the question posed looms larger than ever. After all, it was just a few years ago that shale legend Harold Hamm claimed OPEC a “toothless tiger,” suggesting that the U.S. shale revolution had rendered the bloc ineffective over the world oil market. There is no question that America’s shale has become a game-changer, with the country soaring its crude production 160 percent since 2008 to now meet 16-18 percent of the world’s appetite for liquid fuels. But lest we forget that with 1,245 billion barrels, OPEC still controls nearly 75 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, as reported by BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. Steered by Saudi Arabia, OPEC has some of the lowest production costs. And despite both voluntary and involuntary cuts in output, OPEC still accounts for over 30 percent of global oil supply (over 40 percent during normal times). Until it ended at the end of March, the OPEC and Russia-led output cut partners had put a critical floor under the price of crude. Now, the Saudi-Russia price war amid COVID-19 recently plunged prices to nearly 20-year lows. Indeed, with Saudi Arabia as the linchpin, OPEC’s importance in the global oil market is clear. The mystery of its reserves, however, goes back to the 1980s. This is when leadership instituted a policy for members to connect production quotas to the amount of reserves reported. Quotas for OPEC’s production are strategically allocated to control the flow of oil to the global market and manipulate the price. Hardly surprisingly, with more output meaning more revenue, reserve totals for OPEC members boomed within a few years. From 1982 to 1988, OPEC’s oil reserves inexplicitly grew 65 percent to almost 760 billion barrels. And importantly, there was no drilling program in any of these countries that would have explained such a leap in reported reserves. A more recent example, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves under Hugo Chavez somehow more than tripled from 2006 to 2011 to nearly 300 billion barrels, and the embattled country now has the largest reserves in the world. In turn, the reality is that nobody really knows how much oil OPEC has. The national oil companies within OPEC do not face independent audits. This is in contrast to what happens in the U.S., where producers face oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission that monitors the claims of publically traded companies. Although the COVID-19 and price war crises might bring an exception, generally if U.S. producers were to join forces to restrict supply, they could face collusion charges from the federal government. Looking forward, the importance of OPEC can only continue. An absolute decline in oil production and demand is now a reality this year but that is no indication of a structural shift in the market. Oil is still the most important source of energy with no material substitute, so brighter days lie ahead. More economic growth means demand will grow again. It always was as obvious as it seemed: a bloc of nations that controls the bulk of oil reserves and holds eight of the world’s top 14 producers will remain integral to the supply system.
Cramer sees another oil price collapse: 'This has to go to zero again' - The price of the current oil futures contract could go to zero again even faster than the May contract did in last week's historic plunge, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday. "This has to go to zero again, because we haven't any more space," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." "I had Herbjorn Hansson, who's the CEO of the largest tanker company, Nordic American Tanker, on Friday, and he said look there's no room. So why shouldn't this number go to zero? It should go to zero faster than it did last time."The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate crude closed in negative territory on April 20, the day before the contract expired, as traders scrambled to avoid taking physical delivery of the oil amid light volume. Global energy demand has fallen drastically as the coronavirus pandemic shutters factories and limits travel around the world, leading to a glut of oil and dwindling space to store it.Though futures contracts on other commodities, including natural gas, had broken below zero before, this was the first time the WTI went negative. TheJune contract also fell sharply on that day but stayed positive.Still, on Monday morning the June contract was trading at less than half of where it settled on April 2.Cramer said that the historic plunge showed that the futures market, including the United States Oil Fund, was flawed. "I think the futures distinguished themselves as being, let's just say, totally disingenuous. The idea of what happened last week with the minus-37 has to do with the fact that there are a couple of financial instruments that are just wrong. They are broken," Cramer said. Terry Duffy, chairman and CEO of the CME Group, said last week that the futures market worked "to perfection" as the May contract approached expiration. Duffy said that it was no surprise that the oil contracts could go negative and that only professional investors were still in the market when the price dropped below zero.
Oil falls as crude in US storage nears all-time high - Oil prices fell on Monday on signs that worldwide oil storage is filling rapidly, raising concerns that production cuts will not be fast enough to catch up with the collapse in demand from the coronavirus pandemic.U.S. oil futures led losses after U.S. crude inventories rose to 518.6 million barrels in the week to April 17, near an all-time record of 535 million barrels set in 2017, while floating crude oil storage has hit an all-time high of 160 million barrels.U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.22, or 7.2%, to $15.72 a barrel by 0122 GMT, while Brent crude was down 33 cents, or 1.5%, at $21.11 a barrel. Oil futures marked their third straight week of losses last week - and have fallen for eight of the past nine - with Brent ending down 24% and WTI off around 7%."Rising inventories and weak demand are weighing heavily on sentiment," ANZ analysts said.Trading was extremely volatile last week, in an extension of the selling that has dominated trading since early March as demand collapsed 30% due to the pandemic.Traders expect demand to fall short of supply for months due to the economic disruption caused by the pandemic. Investors will be watching this week for results from oil majors including Exxon Mobil, BP and Royal Dutch Shell.Producers may not be slashing output quickly or deeply enough to buoy prices, especially when global economic output is expected to contract by 2% this year, worse than the financial crisis.Rig counts in the United States are down to the lowest since July 2016, while the total number of oil and gas rigs in Canada has fallen to the lowest since at least 2000, according to Baker Hughes data."The Permian Basin and New Mexico accounted for 62% of the shutdowns; an ominous sign considering this region has been one of the more prosperous in the U.S.," ANZ said.
Crude Chaotic Again As Negative Price Fears Spark Dramatic Index/ETF Shifts - (graphs) Since we showed the renewed crash in the oil complex overnight, crude prices have roller-coastered dramatically after a major index tracked by billions of dollars in funds bailed out of near-term contracts for fear prices may turn negative again.June futures fell over 21% in New York before paring most of the decline, only to collapse back to the lows overnight... and drag the rest of the curve with it... S&P Dow Jones said it will roll all of its West Texas Intermediate contracts for June into July on Tuesday, due to the risk that the nearer contract will go negative.Additionally, as we noted previously, the United States Oil Fund LP is also selling all of its WTI June contracts, while several other ETFs have said they will exit near-term contracts and buy later ones.“Some of this downward pressure particularly in the June contract is an increasing lack of liquidity,” said John Kilduff, a partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.This is not coming only from the USO, but also due to brokerage firms, like Marex Spectron and TD Ameritrade, restricting client’s abilities to add new positions to certain crude contracts, according to Kilduff.“It’s going to exacerbate the whole marrying of the June contract with the over supplied physical conditions and the lack of storage,” Kilduff said.As a reminder, the ETF has changed its investment policy five times in the last two weeks, as shown in the following chart which depicted the ETF's holdings as of Friday's close:It also warned investors its valuation may deviate significantly from the underlying oil price, in effect acknowledging that it’s momentarily less focused on the price of WTI crude."While it is USO’s expectation that at some point in the future it will be able to return to primarily investing in the Benchmark Futures Contract or other similar futures contracts of the same tenor based on light, sweet crude oil, there can be no guarantee of when, if ever, that will occur,” it said in the filing, adding that USO investors “should expect that there will be continued deviations between the performance of USO’s investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and that USO may not be able to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or meet its investment objective." All of which suggests we have crossed the eye of the hurricane as Goldman expects the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks - unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event - which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the expected demand losses.
Oil drops 15%, extending Monday's 25% decline - Oil prices slid more than 15% during overnight trading, extending Monday's nearly 25% decline on ongoing fears that storage around the world is rapidly filling.West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slid 15.3%, or $1.96, to trade at $10.82 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude traded 3.8% lower at $19.23 per barrel. On Monday, WTI fell 24.56%, or $4.16, to settle at $12.78 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude fell 6.76% to settle at $19.99. Each contract is coming off its eighth week of losses in nine weeks.The coronavirus pandemic has erased as much as a third of global demand for oil, according to some estimates, which has sent prices tumbling to record lows."The June contract is falling due to the reality of demand levels being well below current production levels and limited storage options," Reid Morrison, PwC oil and gas advisory leader, told CNBC. "Choppiness in the markets will be significant as economies deal with lockdowns and returning to normal," he added.Prices were also pressured on Monday after the United States Oil Fund, which trades under the ticker 'USO' and is popular with retail investors, said it would sell all of its contracts for June delivery beginning Monday, in favor of longer-term contracts."The move [by the USO] is a recognition of the bleak prospects for the US oil sector in May and June," said Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit. As demand drops more and more producers have announced production cuts. But some believe it won't be fast enough to combat the unprecedented fall-off in demand from the pandemic.Earlier in April, OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed to a record production cut that will take 9.7 million barrels per day off the market beginning Friday, while Exxon and Chevron are among the U.S.-based companies that have scaled back operations. But sill, Birch noted that even as crude prices have dropped U.S. oil production held at a record level in the first quarter of 2020, "filling up almost all available storage capacity."WTI and Brent are both on pace for their fourth straight month of losses for the first time since 2017.
Oil Sinks After Biggest ETF Announces June Contract Exit -- Oil tumbled after the biggest oil ETF said it would sell out of its June WTI futures position, adding to the downward pressure from a huge glut. Futures in New York slid as much as 30%, snapping a four-day recovery as the United States Oil Fund LP said it will move all the money it invested in the front-month June WTI oil contract starting today, triggering a massive swing in the price relationship between the June and July contracts. “Some of this downward pressure particularly in the June contract is an increasing lack of liquidity,” said John Kilduff, a partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC. This is not coming only from the USO, but also due to brokerage firms, like Marex Spectron and TD Ameritrade, restricting client’s abilities to add new positions to certain crude contracts, according to Kilduff. “It’s going to exacerbate the whole marrying of the June contract with the over supplied physical conditions and the lack of storage,” Kilduff said. While U.S. drilling is sliding and Saudi Arabia has started reducing output ahead of the start date for OPEC+ supply cuts, an immense surplus of oil means storage tanks are close to capacity around the world. South Korea, which holds the fourth-biggest commercial storage capacity in Asia, was said to have run out of onshore space. Singapore’s coastline has become even more congested as the number of oil-laden tankers anchored offshore wait to be redirected to a willing buyer. Some vessels are being used to hoard fuel at sea as onshore tanks fill up. With a number of producers commencing output cuts, some of the huge discounts seen in physical markets have eased, particularly in Europe. Swaps markets in the North Sea and Russia were trading stronger last week, though there’s still plenty of cause for pessimism. On a global level, the swelling glut is set to test storage capacity limits in as little as three weeks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., with traders, refiners and infrastructure providers seeking novel ways to hoard crude, including on tiny barges around Europe’s petroleum-trading hub, and in pipelines.
Oil fund's forced sales send WTI prices plunging again: Kemp (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. light crude oil futures prices slumped almost 25% yesterday, the second sharp tumble in a week, after the exchange operator ordered a major commodity fund to sell some of its near-dated futures contracts. United States Oil Fund (USO) announced to investors it would roll its current positions forward over three days between Monday and Wednesday after intervention by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). USO positions were previously split between contracts for delivery in June (20%), July (40%), August (20%) and September (20%), after the fund had already been forced to shift them out of the front-month by recent volatility. The fund is now shifting its positions even further forward, exiting the June contract altogether, and moving positions to July (30%), August (15%), September (15%), October (15%), December (15%) and June 2021 (10%). USO announced its positions would be rolled forward between April 27 and April 29, with approximately one-third rolled each day, in a filing with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). In its filing, the fund noted there had been "significant market volatility" as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the recent oil volume war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. It said positions were being rolled because of market conditions, regulatory requirements and risk-mitigation measures being imposed by the futures commission merchant that handles its trades. Position changes came after the USO received letters from CME instructing it not to exceed new position and accountability limits for the remaining contract months in the second and third quarters.
Oil falls back into the red in volatile session - Oil alternated between gains and losses in a volatile trading session that at one point saw U.S. crude drop more than 20%. Traders continue to eye dwindling storage capacity worldwide, although some of the losses were offset by optimist around reopening of economies. West Texas Intermediate futures for June delivery fell 61 cents, or 4.7%, to trade at $12.18 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude traded 22 cents higher at $20.21. Earlier WTI had been down more than 20%, touching a session low of $10.07, while also trading as high as $13.69. Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said that oil moved off its lows on optimism about economies reopening. "A ramp up in business activity will give a boost in US domestic oil demand, which can postpone filling the country's oil storage a bit further in the future," he told CNBC in an email. But he was quick to caution that demand will continue to stay depressed. "US reopening industrial activity can give a temporary boost to prices as traders need space to breath, but we don't expect the levels to last. Oil prices will likely average at 20 USD per barrel in the second quarter, with the lowest levels coming sometime in May," he added. On Monday, WTI fell 24.56%, or $4.16, to settle at $12.78 per barrel. Brent crude fell 6.76% to settle at $19.99. Each contract is coming off its eighth week of losses in nine weeks.
U.S. oil prices end lower after spike on report of oil tanker explosion in Syria - U.S. benchmark oil prices finished with a loss on Tuesday, giving up an earlier spike to intraday highs on the back of a report of a bomb explosion on an oil tanker in Syria. The explosion on the tanker in the northern Syrian city of Afrin killed at least 10 people, Reuters reported, citing initial reports from Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency Tuesday. News of the bomb detonation led to a rise in oil’s “risk premium, even in a market with a glut of crude,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. “Still, we need to find out if this was a one off incident and who the perpetrators turn out to be.” Against that backdrop, the front-month June West Texas Intermediate crude briefly traded as high of $13.69 a barrel before turning lower again to settle down by 44 cents, or 3.4%, at $12.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had been trading as low as $10.07 before news of the tanker explosion. The move follows a nearly 25% decline on Monday and comes after a 32.3% fall last week, the largest such decline on record for a most-active contract. The now-expired May contract traded in negative territory on April 20 for the first time in the history of the energy complex. “Oversupply conditions will have [storage] tank tops reached in the coming weeks,” . “Oil trade will remain volatile, but any major relief rallies will likely be heavily sold into until the entire energy space starts delivering deeper production cuts.” Analysts have said that traders fear a rerun of the May contract’s collapse, which caused some investors to move out of June contact earlier than would be expected.
OPEC oil supply surges in April ahead of new cut - Petro-Logistics - (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply in April is at its highest since December 2018, a company that tracks oil shipments said on Tuesday, as producers pump at will before a new supply-limiting pact takes effect in May. The month-on-month increase is more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd), Daniel Gerber, chief executive of Geneva-based Petro-Logistics, said. He did not give a March figure, but OPEC said in a report it pumped 28.61 million bpd last month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping more in April because an earlier supply pact it had with Russia and other outside countries collapsed in March, prompting OPEC to remove limits on its output. April’s increase is being driven by “record supply from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as a multi-year high from Kuwait despite the country reining in production in advance of the May 1 curtailment,” Petro-Logistics said. Oil has slumped this year following a slide in demand caused by lockdowns to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the ending of the earlier OPEC-led pact. Brent crude LCOc1 hit a 21-year low of $15.98 a barrel on April 22. To shore up the market, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed earlier this month to a new supply pact from May 1. Kuwait has said it is already cutting production ahead of the new agreement. OPEC+ plans to reduce output by a record 9.7 million bpd for May and June. Other nations, including the United States, have also said they will be pumping less.
Oil jumps 22% on smaller-than-expected inventory build, optimism around reopening economies - Oil prices jumped more than 20% on Wednesday after data showed a smaller-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, as well as on the hope that economies will reopen sooner than expected. West Texas Intermediate for June delivery surged 22.04%, or $2.72, to settle at $15.06 per barrel, after earlier trading as high as $16.78. International benchmark Brent crude gained $2.08, or 10.17%, to settle at $22.54 per barrel. Optimism that economies will be able to re-open ahead of schedule rose after Gilead said early results of its coronavirus drug trial showed that at least 50% of patients treated with a five-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved and more than half were discharged from the hospital within two weeks. Stocks rose following the news, despite a 4.8% contraction for U.S. GDP in the first quarter — the largest contraction since the financial crisis. Oil prices also got a boost on a smaller-than-expected build in U.S. inventories. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude stockpiles rose by 9 million barrels for the week ending April 24. This was lower than the 11.7 million barrel build analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting. The data also showed that U.S. production fell by 100,000 barrels per day last week to 12.1 million bpd. This is 1 million bpd below the record 13.1 million bpd production set during the week ending March 13. close dialog Warren Buffett Watch Newsletter Weekly news on all things Warren Buffet delivered straight to your inbox! Your email address SIGN UP By signing up for newsletters you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and opting into receiving updates, announcements, offers and general marketing emails from CNBC. "Oil prices rose on Wednesday morning as traders cling to potentially positive indications that the demand-supply gap may somewhat become smaller soon," Rystad Energy's global head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen told CNBC. "Overall we need official announcements for cuts or economies reopening for prices to stabilize. Expect a lot of volatility and price swings either way in coming days as bullish and bearish traders weigh their hopes and fears in a market that is desperate to find something to hang on," he added.
Oil Continues To Rally As Norway Decides To Cut Production - Norway has officially announced that it will be cutting its oil production from June 2020 to December 2020. Norway will start with a production cut of 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. After this, the country’s oil production will decline by 134,000 bpd. In addition, Norway will delay the start-up of several oil fields until 2021. As a result, the country’s oil production in December 2020 should be 300,000 bpd less than initially expected. As a reference point, Norway used production levels of 1.859 million bpd. This means that the country will cut its oil production by 13.5% in June. In comparison, Russia has recently ordered its domestic oil producers to cut production by 20% from February levels. While Norway’s production cut is not as big as Saudi Arabia’s or Russia’s, it is a very important signal that countries outside OPEC+ are ready to cooperate in order to stabilize the market. Such production cuts are especially welcome at a time when estimates of actual hit to oil demand vary widely and there’s great uncertainty regarding the pace of the economic recovery after lifting of coronavirus containment measures. At this point, it looks like the market will need continued deep production cuts to stabilize the supply/demand balance and reach more reasonable price levels by the end of the year. American And European Majors Follow Different Capital Allocation Paths The dividend has always been a sacred cow for any oil major. However, the current crisis is unprecedented, and oil majors face a challenging choice. Maintaining the dividend will impair the ability to invest in new projects and damage financial stability, while cutting the dividend will damage the share price. Dividend decisions are important not only for the companies’ shareholders but also to the oil market since they impact the amount of new investments in the next few years. Currently, American companies are choosing to maintain the dividend – Chevron and Exxon Mobil decided to leave their dividends intact. In Europe, the trend is to cut the dividend – Equinor and Shell announced massive dividend cuts.
Oil prices surge on last day of roller-coaster month –(Reuters) - Oil prices jumped on Thursday, after several producers said they would cut output and as signs the U.S. crude glut was not growing as quickly as many had feared brought an upbeat close to one of the most volatile months for oil trading in history. Fuel demand worldwide slumped about 30% in April. Even after major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia agreed to slash production by nearly 10 million barrels per day (bpd), U.S. crude futures closed on April 20 at a record low in negative territory. That collapse in U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures made traders frantic to avoid taking delivery as the May front-month contract expired, forcing traders to pay $37.63 a barrel at settlement to get rid of their contracts. Prices have recovered somewhat but remain down over 60% since the start of the year. On its last day as the front-month, Brent futures for June delivery rose $2.73, or 12%, to settle at $25.27 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose $3.78, or 25%, to settle at $18.84. That was the highest close for Brent since April 20 and WTI since April 16. Brent, the international benchmark, gained about 11% in April after falling more than 65% over the prior three months. WTI, meanwhile, fell for a fourth month in a row, dropping over 70% during that time, including an 8% loss in April. The more actively traded Brent futures for July, which will soon be the front-month, gained about 9% to settle at $26.48 a barrel. Volume in WTI futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit around 36 million contracts in April, which Refinitiv data puts as second only to the previous month’s 40.9 million record.Western Europe’s largest oil producer, Norway, said it would lower output from June to December, cutting production for the first time in 18 years as it joined other major producers’ efforts to support prices and curb oversupply.
U.S. oil prices climb 25% to pare monthly loss to 8% - Oil futures finished 25% higher on Thursday, paring their loss for the month as traders eyed the outlook for global crude supply, demand and storage capacity. The market found support for the session on the back of news that major oil companies have announced voluntary crude production cuts and amid signs that storage space for crude won’t run out as quickly as feared. “Oil prices rallied as investors continue to see a steady stream of headlines of crude production cuts,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a market update. Norway announced its first cut with production in 18 years, he said. News reports said the country would reduce output by 250,000 barrels per day in June and 134,000 barrels per day during the second half of the year. Royal Dutch Shell said Thursday that it’s cutting its first-quarter dividend for the first time in 80 years, citing the collapse in oil and gas demand and prices. ConocoPhillips COP, -7.03% reported a loss for the first quarter and announced a voluntary reduction of crude production by 420,000 barrels per day in June. “Big oil is starting to have landmark moments that signal deeper production cuts across the globe will be happening quickly,” said Moya. “Oil prices are looking very constructive because over the next month or two, supply will meet demand,” he said. “Oversupply worries are slowly easing and, with the exception of sudden dislocations in the oil market, crude prices could continue to stabilize.” West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery rose $3.78, or 25.1%, to settle at $18.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a 22% surge on Wednesday. For the month, prices still lost 8%, from the front-month contract settlement on March 31, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Global benchmark June Brent crude, which expired at the end of the session, added $2.73, or 12.1%, at $25.27 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, with front-month contract prices ending the month 11.1% higher. The most-active July contract gained $2.25, or 9.3%, to end the session at $26.48 a barrel. Oil has been hit by worries about oversupply by major producers amid the worst viral pandemic in more than century which has wrecked crude demand, while a dearth of places to store the commodity has served to further fuel its descent.
Oil jumps 5%, snaps 3-week losing streak U.S. oil moved higher on Friday, with both benchmarks posting their first weekly gain in four weeks as OPEC and its allies embark on record output cuts to tackle a supply glut due to the coronavirus crisis. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 4.99%, or 94 cents, to settle at $19.78 per barrel, after climbing above $20 earlier in the session. Brent futures for July eased 7 cents, or 0.6%, to $26.31. The June contract expired on Thursday at $25.27. The global oil benchmark Brent has fallen about 60% in 2020 and hit a near-21-year low last month as the pandemic squeezed demand and OPEC and other producers pumped at will before reaching the new supply deal that kicked in on Friday. After three consecutive weeks of losses, Brent was on track for a gain of more than 20% while WTI headed for an increase of about 16%. WTI also found support after U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a seventh week in a row, bringing the total count down to 325, the lowest since June 2016, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1. Several countries and regions, including China's central province of Hubei, where the novel coronavirus behind the pandemic was first detected, are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. "Global petroleum stock builds likely peaked in April as oil demand contracted by nearly 25 million bpd year-over-year," according to a BofA Global Research report. "Now, countries are emerging from lockdown, boosting demand just when OPEC+ cuts are kicking in and producers elsewhere are cutting output." Even so, there are doubts the production reduction, the largest ever agreed, will be enough as demand is unlikely to recover rapidly. "The production cuts are finally kicking in," said Craig Erlam, analyst at brokerage OANDA. "Prices are still extremely low though and the next two weeks will likely see extreme volatility return." A Reuters survey on Thursday showed that in advance of the new output cut, OPEC sharply raised production to the highest since March 2019, adding to the excess supply already in the market. "The demand recovery will be a muted affair," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. "What's more, OPEC+ curbs which take effect today will be no panacea for the hefty supply imbalance."
U.S. oil prices climb by nearly 17% for the week as OPEC+ production cuts begin – U.S. oil futures finished higher on Friday to score a weekly gain as the market marked the official start date for production cuts under the recent agreement between major oil producers. “Oil prices are defying current oversupply and instead are focused on the start of the most significant oil production cut in history,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. He said the reductions are poised to be the “most significant oil and product production retrenchment, but the market is also “respecting the current massive oversupply,” which has served to limit market gains. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, were due to start cutting production after agreeing in April to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June. The move was meant to offset a severe drop in global demand on the back of travel restrictions tied to preventing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 94 cents, or 5%, to settle at $19.78 a barrel. It logged a 16.8% weekly rise on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Dow Jones Market Data. WTI had bounced 52% higher in the last two sessions but still suffered an 8% decline in April and is down almost 68% year to date. Global benchmark July Brent crude settled at $26.44 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, down 4 cents, or nearly 0.2%. For the week, front-month contract prices rose 6.6%. Even as the OPEC+ cuts begin, however, traders eyed the latest figures on April OPEC member production. OPEC output rose to a 13-month high in April as members pumped 30.25 million barrels per day, according to a survey from Reuters. That was up 1.61 million barrels per day from a revised March figure. Before the output-cut pact between OPEC+ was reached in April, a meeting in early March had broken down after OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-member Russia failed to agree on production cuts. That led to a price war and production increases among the two nations. The U.S. oil benchmark made headlines on April 20 when the May WTI crude contract traded and settled in negative territory for the first time ever. While that was in large part due to the skewed mechanics of the expiration process amid a storage crisis, it was seen as emblematic of a bear market that has seen oil prices suffer a historic plunge.
US Beefs Up Gunship Presence In Gulf Ready To Back Trump's Iran 'Red Line' - American forces in the Persian Gulf have greatly bolstered their ability to respond to Iran at a moment President Trump has renewed trading threats and barbs with the Islamic Republic, ordering the US Navy "to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea." This includes the Pentagon bolstering its AC-130 gunships and Apache attack helicopters to target and destroy small surface threats in the Arabian Sea. Tehran has meanwhile responded with its own threats to 'destroy' American vessels of course. It was apparently this beefed up presence that led to the April 15 confrontation about which Trump was responding by ordering destruction of boats that "harass" American vessels. Bloomberg explains that while the Pentagon has been closely monitoring Iran's growing fleet of over 1,000 small boats in the gulf and Hormuz Strait, the US has in turn been provocatively beefing up its own presence. March and April US Navy exercises didn't go unnoticed by Iran, however: The live-fire gunship exercises began in March as a first-time effort at coordination between Navy patrol coastal ships, the service’s P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft and the Air Force’s special operations AC-130 gunships, which are capable of nighttime attacks. Armed with a 30mm Gatling gun and precision-guided munitions, the famed gunships have been used to attack ground targets — but not naval targets — from Vietnam to Grenada, Panama, Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan. The US Navy is further deploying what it dubs a 'Lily Pad' approach, in order to better go on the attack against Iran's expanding fleet of fast boats: Under the new approach, the Apaches can be stationed on the Puller, the Navy’s first specially designed floating sea base. The Puller, a destroyer and other, smaller U.S. vessels were practicing spotting targets for the Apaches and transmitting the information. The exercises continued through April 19.
Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources (Reuters) - As the United States pressed Saudi Arabia to end its oil price war with Russia, President Donald Trump gave Saudi leaders an ultimatum. In an April 2 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The threat to upend a 75-year strategic alliance, which has not been previously reported, was central to the U.S. pressure campaign that led to a landmark global deal to slash oil supply as demand collapsed in the coronavirus pandemic - scoring a diplomatic victory for the White House. Trump delivered the message to the crown prince 10 days before the announcement of production cuts. The kingdom’s de facto leader was so taken aback by the threat that he ordered his aides out of the room so he could continue the discussion in private, according to a U.S. source who was briefed on the discussion by senior administration officials. The effort illustrated Trump’s strong desire to protect the U.S. oil industry from a historic price meltdown as governments shut down economies worldwide to fight the virus. It also reflected a telling reversal of Trump’s longstanding criticism of the oil cartel, which he has blasted for raising energy costs for Americans with supply cuts that usually lead to higher gasoline prices. Now, Trump was asking OPEC to slash output. A senior U.S. official told Reuters that the administration notified Saudi leaders that, without production cuts, “there would be no way to stop the U.S. Congress from imposing restrictions that could lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces.” The official summed up the argument, made through various diplomatic channels, as telling Saudi leaders: “We are defending your industry while you’re destroying ours.” Reuters asked Trump about the talks in an interview Wednesday evening at the White House, at which the president addressed a range of topics involving the pandemic. Asked if he told the crown prince that the U.S. might pull forces out of Saudi Arabia, Trump said, “I didn’t have to tell him.” “I thought he and President Putin, Vladimir Putin, were very reasonable,” Trump said. “They knew they had a problem, and then this happened.” Asked what he told the Crown Prince Mohammed, Trump said: “They were having a hard time making a deal. And I met telephonically with him, and we were able to reach a deal” for production cuts, Trump said. Saudi Arabia’s government media office did not respond to a request for comment. A Saudi official who asked not to be named stressed that the agreement represented the will of all countries in the so-called OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, which includes OPEC plus a coalition led by Russia.
Saudi-led coalition rejects south Yemen self-rule declaration - A Saudi Arabia-led military coalition has rejected a separatist group's declaration of self-rule in Yemen's south, demanding "an end to escalatory actions" and return to a peace deal signed in November last year. The Saudi statement on Monday comes a day after Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC)declared a state of emergency and announced "self-administration rule" in regions under their control, including in the port city of Aden.The key city serves as the interim capital of the internationally recognised and Saudi-backed government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The STC and Hadi's forces are supposed allies in Yemen's complicated conflict and both have fought together in the Saudi-led coalition's war against the Houthi rebels, who overran parts of northern Yemen in 2014, including the capital, Sanaa. But the STC turned on Hadi's government in August last year and seized Aden. The fighting stopped when the two groups reached a deal in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. In its statement on Monday, the Saudi-led coalition urged the council to return to the terms of the Riyadh agreement. That deal had called for all sides to remove heavy military equipment from Yemeni cities under their control and form a unity government that included equal representation. But that had yet to be implemented as the war continued and enormous floods struck Aden, killing at least 21 people earlier this month. Compounding the troubles, Yemen on April 10 announced its first case of the COVID-19.
UPDATE 2-China to issue first-ever VLSFO export quotas of 10 mln T for 2020 - sources - (Reuters) - China is set to release its first-ever quotas to export very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) with total volumes of 10 million tonnes for this year, six industry officials with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday. The quotas, which came in the wake of Beijing’s policy in January to offer tax sweeteners to boost local production of the fuel, paves the way for Chinese refiners to almost fully cover the demand from its coastal bonded marine fuel market of 12-14 million tonnes annually. The quotas will be issued to four state-run firms - Sinopec Group, CNPC, China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Sinochem Group - as well as private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp (ZPC). Sources requested anonymity as the matter is not yet public. China’s Ministry of Commerce and the state-run companies did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for a comment. China approved in January a long-awaited tax waiver on exports of cleaner ship fuel, paving the way for refiners to boost output and to make Chinese production competitive among rival supplies from Singapore and South Korea. Under the allotment, Sinopec is expected to receive 4.29 million tonnes, CNPC 2.95 million tonnes, CNOOC 860,000 tonnes and Sinochem at 900,000 tonnes, the sources said. Two sources at ZPC said its refinery, located in China’s top bunker port Zhoushan, will be allotted one million tonnes, though the refiner is required to export via state-run companies as proxies. China’s commerce ministry will include VLSFO into its export license management scheme from May 1, it said in a statement on Tuesday. If required, the government may top up with another quota for 5 million tonnes in a second allotment this year, two of the sources said.
China oil companies could report 'significant losses' in the first quarter, Bernstein says - Earnings from China's oil firms are going to "look pretty ugly" in the short-term, one Bernstein analyst told CNBC on Monday. "We're expecting very significant losses in the first quarter for PetroChina and Sinopec as a result of the low oil prices," Neil Beveridge, senior oil and gas analyst at Bernstein, told CNBC's "Street Signs." Both PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to post their quarterly earnings later this week, according to Refinitiv. It comes after recent volatility in oil prices which saw U.S. crude prices go into negative territory for the first time in history. Fears are mounting over slowing demand as a result of the economic fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic. Beveridge said onshore production in China is on "the high end of the cost curve," with break-even levels at about $50 to $60 per barrel. In comparison, international benchmark Brent crude futures currently sit at around $20 per barrel. "The problem with some of the Chinese producers, I've heard, is that it's very difficult, given that these are state-owned enterprises, to cut costs as aggressively as private sector companies," the Bernstein analyst said. This has led the firms to be slow in their reaction, from cutting costs to reducing capital expenditure, he added. "As a result, you'll see very significant losses I think, as they report (first quarter) numbers," Beveridge said, with the second quarter set to be "even worse." Looking ahead, Beveridge said a "source of potential benefit" from the lower oil prices for these firms is in downstream refining for petrochemical businesses. "Low prices mean lower feedstock costs," he said. Feedstock refers to raw materials used in industrial processes. "As China gets back to work, we will see a recovery in some of the downstream margins that will offset some of the upstream losses for those companies."
Bank of China Clients Said to Lose $1 Billion on Oil Bets - Bank of China Ltd.’s estimate for the carnage to retail investors from the collapse in a product linked to U.S. crude oil futures surged 11-fold to more than 7 billion yuan ($1 billion) as it consolidated reports from its nationwide network, according to people familiar with the matter. The estimate of losses to customers across China increased from about 600 million yuan in the middle of last week as more information was gathered from its more than 10,000 outlets, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. The number isn’t final and subject to further change as more branch data are examined, one of the people said. The losses stem from the bank settling May West Texas Intermediate contracts that underpinned its “Crude Oil Treasure” product on April 20 at minus $37.63 a barrel, leaving Bank of China customers caught in the middle of oil’s unprecedented collapse below zero. Hundreds have taken to the Internet to protest the lender’s handling of the contract rollover and to demand it shoulder some of the losses. Bank of China declined to comment. It hasn’t disclosed the size or performance of “Crude Oil Treasure” since launching the product in January 2018. The investment vehicle had offered Chinese retail investors access to WTI oil futures without opening an offshore account and was pegged to the flat price of the front-month contract and settled in Chinese yuan. It requires 100% margin and doesn’t allow any leverage. Bank of China suspended trading in the product last week. China’s biggest banks including China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of Communications Co. also halted sales of similar vehicles that had become a popular way for individuals to speculate on swings in oil. Bank of China said on Friday that about 46% of the investors had liquidated their positions on April 20, while the remaining chose to either roll over their positions or settle at the expiration, including both long and short positions. The bank also softened it stance by saying it will fully review its product design, risk control and related procedures and take responsibilities within the legal framework and make the best effort to safeguard their clients’ interests. More than 60,000 clients have invested in Bank of China’s product, Caixin reported, adding that investors have lost their margins of 4.2 billion yuan and owed the bank a further 5.8 billion yuan. Some clients have received phone calls from the lender that it won’t seek recourse for the money owed to it at the moment, the China Securities Journal reported on Sunday.
Coronavirus: China faces fight to hang onto foreign manufacturers as US, Japan, EU make Covid-19 exit plans | South China Morning Post --Over the space of two weeks, powerful figures from three of the world’s four largest economies have publicly announced or discussed plans to lure their countries out of China, with such rhetoric finding growing support after the supply shock caused by China’s coronavirus shutdown.On Tuesday, European Union trade commissioner Phil Hogan said the bloc would seek to “reduce our trade dependencies” after the pandemic, Politico reported.Last week, Japan unveiled a US$2.2 billion fund to tempt Japanese manufacturers back to the country or even to Southeast Asia – as long as they leave China – in response to supply chain disruptions stemming from the pandemic. This followed the director of the United States’ National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, saying that Washington should pay the moving costs of American firms bringing manufacturing back from China. “I would say, 100 per cent immediate expensing across the board for plant, equipment, intellectual property, structures, renovations,” Kudlow told Fox News, adding to his comments in January that the coronavirus outbreak would be a boon for American employment. However, the US has no formal corporate repatriation programme as yet. Firms from the US, Japan and Europe have been moving manufacturing away from China for some time due to rising costs and the impact of the US-China trade war, but the pressure is now on to accelerate this, with the coronavirus highlighting how reliant the world is on goods made in China, particularly vital medical products. Michael Alkire, president of health care resource provider Premier, has already identified 22 items of protective clothing and 30 drugs that are likely “so critical that they need to be produced” in the US, even as the coronavirus continues to tear through American cities. Many are currently made in China, which dominates the world’s personal protective equipment (PPE) and pharmaceutical markets, as with many other manufacturing sectors.
China’s industrial firms’ profits contract in March but at slower pace (Reuters) - Profits at China’s industrial firms fell in March although at a slower pace than in the first two months, with many sectors seeing significant declines, suggesting the economy is still struggling to resume production after the coronavirus outbreak. The world’s No.2 economy is limping back after weeks of near paralysis caused by the health crisis and tough containment measures, but recovery has been patchy with worries about a second wave of infections and a global recession adding to the challenges for policymakers. China’s industrial firms earned 370.66 billion yuan ($52.43 billion) in March, down 34.9% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. This follows a 38.3% slump in January-February, the steepest drop since at least 2010. For the quarter ended March, industrial firms’ profits fell 36.7% on an annual basis to 781.45 billion yuan. Electronics and drinks manufacturers saw some recoveries in profits from the first two months, the data showed. Eight out of 41 sectors surveyed marked profit increases in March, better than only four in January-February.The advanced manufacturing sector, as well as private, small-scale and foreign invested companies all saw narrower drops in profits in March compared with the first two months. The deep drop in industrial firms’ profits comes as China’s economy shrank for the first time since at least 1992 in the first three months. Factory gate prices, a key barometer for industrial demand, posted the deepest deflation in five months in March.
China seizes over 89 million shoddy face masks - China has confiscated over 89 million poor quality face masks, a government official said Sunday, as Beijing faces a slew of complaints about faulty protective gear exported worldwide. Demand for protective equipment has soared as nations across the globe battle the deadly coronavirus, which has infected around 2.9 million people. But a number of countries have complained about faulty masks and other products exported by China, mostly for use by medical workers and vulnerable groups. China's market regulators had inspected nearly 16 million businesses and seized over 89 million masks and 418,000 pieces of protective gear as of Friday, said Gan Lin, deputy director of the State Administration of Market Regulation, at a press conference. Regulators had also seized ineffective disinfectants worth over 7.6 million yuan ($1.1 million), she said. It is unclear how much of the confiscated goods were destined for markets abroad. In a bid to eliminate poor-quality products, China released new rules Saturday saying even non-medical masks must meet both national and international quality standards.
Hong Kong police break up pro-democracy singing protest at mall (Reuters) - Hong Kong riot police armed with shields dispersed a crowd of 300 pro-democracy activists holding a singing protest in an upmarket shopping mall on Sunday, despite a ban on public gatherings of more than four people. Chanting popular protest slogans, mostly young activists clad in black swarmed the Cityplaza mall shouting “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times!” while others called for the release of pro-democracy activists. The protest was the first sizable gathering since the government imposed the ban on public meetings at the end of March to curb a spike in coronavirus infections. Fears that Beijing is flexing its muscles over the Asian financial hub risk reviving anti-government protests after months of calm as social distancing rules start to ease. Political tensions have escalated over the past two weeks after the arrest of 15 pro-democracy activists in the city’s biggest crackdown on the movement. Beijing has said it supported the arrests in the Chinese special administrative region. On Sunday, police cordoned off sections of the Cityplaza mall, prompting some stores to shut as activists and shoppers, including families with children, were ordered to leave. “People were just singing, it’s very peaceful ... we didn’t do anything illegally. Democracy and freedom is more important,” said a high school student surnamed Or who came to participate ahead of his university entrance exam on Monday. Adding to concerns that Beijing is increasingly meddling in the city’s affairs - a claim the central government rejects - Beijing’s top official in there urged local authorities last week to enact national security legislation as soon as possible.
India: Vicious attack on Maruti Suzuki trainees highlights plight of migrant workers during COVID-19 lockdown - A dozen or so young workers employed as trainees at the Maruti Suzuki’s Manesar car assembly plant in the north Indian state of Haryana were viciously attacked on April 8 by 25 to 30 goons who barged unannounced into their residences in the nearby Aliyar village.Shouting that the workers were spreading the COVID-19 disease, the goons armed with rods, stones and hockey sticks barged into the five-storey building, which contains several one-room apartments where workers reside five to a room.The Maruti Suzuki’s Manesar plant came to all-Indian and international prominence in 2011-12 when workers rebelled against a company and government-sponsored union and mounted a series of militant actions, including sit-down strikes, to challenge poverty wages and precarious contract jobs, and win recognition of the newly-founded Maruti Suzuki Workers Union (MSWU). Subsequently 13 workers, including the entire MSWU leadership, were sentenced to life in prison as result of a monstrous frame-up mounted by India’s largest automaker, its principal parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Narendra Modi and the Congress Party, and the courts and police (see: Three years since Indian court ordered 13 framed-up Maruti Suzuki workers jailed for life).The trainee Maruti Suzuki workers who were attacked in Aliyar this month all hail from the eastern state of Bihar, which is one of the country’s most populous and impoverished states. There are large numbers of migrant workers from Bihar in most major cities and industrial areas, including Delhi and the nearby Gurgaon-Manesar industrial belt, Kolkata and Mumbai. According to reports that the World Socialist Web Site has received from the Provisional Committee of the Maruti Suzuki Workers Union (MSWU), the thugs who attacked the trainees appear to have been acting at the behest of the corrupt village head, a position known in Hindi as Sarpanch. Like tens if not hundreds of millions of domestic migrant workers, the trainees have been stranded, hundreds of kilometres from their home villages, and without any income or sustenance by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s precipitous lockdown.Without any prior warning or planning, Modi announced on the evening of March 24 that just hours later India would be subject to a three-week anti-coronavirus lockdown, which was later extended for a further 19 days through May 3. Overnight, hundreds of millions of day-labourers, trainees, and contract workers found themselves without employment and income (see: Modi places India’s 1.3 billion people under lockdown).
India makes government tracing app mandatory for all workers - (Reuters) - India has mandated that all public and private sector employees use a government-backed Bluetooth tracing app and maintain social distancing in offices as New Delhi begins easing some of its lockdown measures in lower-risk areas. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on Friday said India - the country with the largest number of people in lockdown - would extends its nationwide control measures for another two weeks from Monday to battle the spread of the coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 illness, but allow “considerable relaxations” in lower-risk districts. As part of its efforts to fight the deadly virus, India last month launched the app Aarogya Setu - meaning Health Bridge - a Bluetooth and GPS-based system developed by the country’s National Informatics Centre. The app alerts users who may have come in contact with people later found to be positive for COVID-19 or deemed to be at high risk. “Use of Aarogya Setu shall be made mandatory for all employees, both private and public,” India’s Ministry of Home Affairs said in a notification late on Friday. It will be the responsibility of the heads of companies and organizations “to ensure 100% coverage of this app among the employees,” the ministry said. Officials at India’s technology ministry and a lawyer who framed the privacy policy for Aarogya Setu told Reuters the app needs to be on at least 200 million phones for it to be effective in the country of 1.3 billion people. The app has been downloaded around 50 million times on Android phones, which dominate India’s smartphone user base of 500 million, according to Google Play Store data. The app’s compulsory use is raising concerns among privacy advocates, who say it is unclear how the data will be used and who stress that India lacks privacy laws to govern the app. “Such a move should be backed by a dedicated law which provides strong data protection cover and is under the oversight of an independent body,” said Udbhav Tiwari, Public Policy Advisor for internet company Mozilla. .
Quebec government threatens thousands of lives with precipitous return to work - Though Quebec remains the Canadian province most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 25,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,675 deaths, Quebec Premier François Legault is intensifying his criminal policy of a hasty, premature return to work. Lying about the extremely fragile state of a public health care system ravaged by decades of austerity, Legault announced Monday the imminent reopening of daycare centers and primary schools. Those outside of Montreal will reopen on May 11 and those in the Greater Montreal area, the epicenter of the pandemic in Quebec, on May 19. Yesterday, Quebec’s premier announced that most retail stores outside of the Montreal region will be able to open as of next Monday, and all the province’s manufacturing facilities and construction sites will be allowed to resume their operations on May 11. Already last week, work on residential construction sites, which along with the rest of the building industry were only closed in late March because of angry worker protests, resumed. The Legault government is following in the footsteps of the Trump administration in the United States and the governments of the European Union. The repeated warnings of the World Health Organization (WHO) that the hasty lifting of lockdown measures could lead to a second, deadlier wave of COVID-19 cases are being brushed aside. Like its American and European counterparts, and the premiers of other Canadian provinces, the right-wing CAQ government (Coalition Avenir Quebec) wants to force workers to return to the workplace as quickly as possible. Without any guarantee that appropriate safety measures are in place, the ruling elite is demanding the ratcheting up of the exploitation of the working class in order to feed the insatiable thirst of big business and the financial markets for profits. Irrespective of the countless human lives that such a policy will cost under conditions of a continuing deadly pandemic, the authorities refuse to implement the measures prescribed by the scientific community to contain and defeat the coronavirus. These include systematic mass testing, treatment and isolation of infected people, contact-tracing, and massive investments in the health care system to build up surge capacity.
German students oppose reopening of schools - Under conditions of the worldwide spread of COVID-19, strong opposition among students in Germany to the reopening of schools is developing. Under the slogan “average grade 2020,” students are demanding the suspension of final exams and the closing of schools so long as the lives of students, teachers and their relatives are at risk. A petition which obtained 150,000 signatures in a short period of time called instead of exams for students to receive an average grade based on the work they have already completed during the school year. Students who want to improve their grade could take part in an oral exam via video conference, the petition suggested. Members of the International Youth and Students for Social Equality spoke to organisers of the initiative from several federal states. Vicky, 19, a final year high school student from North Rhine-Westphalia, said, “The politicians would like 'normality' to return but in my opinion, it's much too soon for that. Although the infection curve is declining a little bit, this flattening off will not last long if so many people come together in a location where it’s impossible to stick to the hygiene regulations.” “I think it is irresponsible,” commented Nova, 19, angrily, a final year student from Bavaria. “It feels like an experiment to me—and in a few weeks we'll see the effect and what happens when so many people come together in one place. Above all, I am personally affected by it, since I live with my grandparents, who both belong to the high-risk group. I don't want to go into school every day with a bad conscience and worry about infecting them when I come home. Additionally, many students and teachers are also members of high-risk groups. What about them?” Nova, who sent a protest letter to political parties and politicians, firmly opposes the reopening of schools under these conditions. “It is a paradox for me when mass gatherings are banned and restrictions are rightly imposed on people going outdoors, but hundreds of us have to go to school. And the politicians decide all of this on a telephone conference!” If all final exams are held, Nova believes this will increase inequality in education. “Some students don't have the chance to prepare for the exam, because, for example, they have to share a computer with someone else. The upper class naturally has an advantage there, because they can afford better equipment.”
Southern European Tourism (21% Of GDP) Is On Its Knees... Will It Ever Get Back Up Again? - The tourism industry is in the “eye of the hurricane”, says Manuel Butler, executive director of the World Tourism Organization. “It was the first sector to be afflicted by the virus crisis and, unlike other crises, is likely to be the last to recover from it.”Tourist spending across Europe already slumped 68% year-on-year in March, when the lockdowns began to spread across the continent, according to a recent UBS analysts’ note based on data from Planet, the VAT refund provider.“Chinese spend in Europe was down 84.6% y/y, with all other nationalities also declining in March,” the report said.Italy, the first European country to be hit by the virus and the first to enter full lockdown, on March 10, saw the biggest drop in tourist spending, down 96% year-over-year. Hotel occupancy in Italy also slumped to 4%, its lowest level ever.Overnight stays in hotels in Spain, which entered lockdown around ten days after Italy, plunged 61% year over year in March to 8.3 million, also the lowest number on record, according to Spain’s National Statistics Institute. In April, the number is likely to be much closer to zero since almost all of Spain’s hotels and other temporary lodgings have been closed since March 26.Spain’s government plans to gradually relax the country’s lockdown conditions, among the harshest in Europe, on May 10, but there will be little relief for the country’s tourism industry. Spain’s Minister of Work, Yolanda Diaz, said in a statement this week that the sector would not be returning to any semblance of normality until at least the end of the year. While her words infuriated some in the sector, most tourism businesses are grudgingly accepting that the summer season is as good as lost.Even as lockdown conditions are gradually lifted in places like Italy and Spain, many social-distancing restrictions will remain in place, including rules affecting travel. And consumers, still fearful of contracting the virus while also reeling from the deep economic recessions that are hitting just about every national economy on the planet, are unlikely to travel so far or with such frequency for some time.“Fear of traveling will probably last longer than the pandemic itself. It’s difficult to expect an immediate recovery of tourism once the lockdown measures are lifted,” said Steven Trypsteen, an economist at Dutch bank ING.
Global $6 Trillion Slump May Be Optimistic, Economists Warn - The coronavirus pandemic will cause the global economy to shrink 4% in 2020, according to a Bloomberg Economics estimate that assumes a recovery starts in the second half of the year. The economy has “entered a downturn of unprecedented speed and severity, with most advanced economies facing their weakest performance since the Great Depression,” Tom Orlik and Jamie Rush wrote in a report. “Relative to expectations at the start of the year, the cost of lost output is more than $6 trillion,” the wrote. That a contraction of this magnitude is based on “optimistic assumptions about both the outbreak and the recovery” underscores the challenge facing policy makers trying to cushion the blow of the pandemic. Under such scenario, U.S. gross domestic product will shrink 6.4%, while euro area GDP is set to contract 8.1%. Japan will shrink 4%, while China will expand at the slowest pace on record. World Outlook
COVID-19: Stimulating the economy and employment: ILO: As job losses escalate, nearly half of global workforce at risk of losing livelihoods (ILO) – The continued sharp decline in working hours globally due to the COVID-19 outbreak means that 1.6 billion workers in the informal economy – that is nearly half of the global workforce – stand in immediate danger of having their livelihoods destroyed, warns the International Labour Organization. According to the ILO Monitor third edition: COVID-19 and the world of work , the drop in working hours in the current (second) quarter of 2020 is expected to be significantly worse than previously estimated. Compared to pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019), a 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected, equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week). The previous estimate was for a 6.7 per cent drop, equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. This is due to the prolongation and extension of lockdown measures. Regionally, the situation has worsened for all major regional groups. Estimates suggest a 12.4 per cent loss of working hours in Q2 for the Americas (compared to pre-crisis levels) and 11.8 per cent for Europe and Central Asia. The estimates for the rest of the regional groups follow closely and are all above 9.5 per cent. As a result of the economic crisis created by the pandemic, almost 1.6 billion informal economy workers (representing the most vulnerable in the labour market), out of a worldwide total of two billion and a global workforce of 3.3 billion, have suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living. This is due to lockdown measures and/or because they work in the hardest-hit sectors. The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income of informal workers globally. This translates into a drop of 81 per cent in Africa and the Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia. Without alternative income sources, these workers and their families will have no means to survive. The proportion of workers living in countries under recommended or required workplace closures has decreased from 81 to 68 per cent over the last two weeks. The decline from the previous estimate of 81 per cent in the second edition of the monitor (published April 7) is primarily a result of changes in China; elsewhere workplace closure measures have increased. Worldwide, more than 436 million enterprises face high risks of serious disruption. These enterprises are operating in the hardest-hit economic sectors, including some 232 million in wholesale and retail, 111 million in manufacturing, 51 million in accommodation and food services, and 42 million in real estate and other business activities. The ILO calls for urgent, targeted and flexible measures to support workers and businesses, particularly smaller enterprises, those in the informal economy and others who are vulnerable.
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