Cheat sheet: 8 ways Fed is using emergency powers to counter pandemic — The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented actions to stabilize U.S. financial markets and keep credit flowing as the coronavirus pandemic halted the nation’s longest economic expansion.The Fed acted quickly March 3 by announcing its first emergency interest rate cut since the 2007-9 financial crisis. The central bank further slashed the federal funds rate to zero on March 15 while at the same time urging banks to lend via the discount window. But the Fed has also used its emergency lending powers under authority granted by Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to prepare a number of credit facilities to rescue flailing markets, something that the central bank had not done since the financial crisis. In less than two months this year, the Fed has announced 11 different credit facilities, all intended to support the flow of credit to households and businesses that may have encountered financial difficulties as a result of the coronavirus. Although the Fed has only officially fired up four of the 11 programs, the announcements on their own can serve to soothe markets and ease some financial pressure already. “We haven't made any corporate loans in those facilities … and yet there's a tremendous amount of financing going on, and that's a good thing,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in an April 29 press conference. “The ultimate demand for these facilities is quite difficult to predict because there is this announcement effect that it really gets the market functioning again.” Here’s a breakdown of all of the credit facilities the Fed has established or announced using its emergency lending powers:
- Commercial Paper Funding Facility - The Fed first flexed its 13(3) powers March 17 when it revived a 2008-era facility to provide a liquidity backstop for commercial debt issuers through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. The facility began making purchases April 14. The Fed said as of that day the facility had issued $249.3 million in loans.
- Primary Dealer Credit Facility - The Fed also announced March 17 that it would establish a credit facility for primary dealers — banks that buy government securities directly from the Fed and the Treasury. The Primary Dealer Credit Facility was designed to “help address illiquidity, mitigate disruptions in funding markets, support smooth market functioning and help facilitate the availability of credit to American workers and businesses,” Mnuchin said. As of April 14, the facility had issued $34.5 billion in loans, the Fed said.
- Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility - The Fed announced the creation of the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility March 19 in an effort to support money market mutual funds as the coronavirus continued to put pressure on short-term funding markets. As of April 14, the Fed said the facility had issued more than $51 billion in loans.
- Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility - The Fed said March 23 it would establish the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility to preserve the flow of credit to large investment-grade employers through new bond and loan issuance. The central bank also said it was creating the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility to focus on outstanding corporate bonds. The expansion allows companies that were investment-grade before the onset of the coronavirus but then subsequently downgraded after March 22 to gain access.
- Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility - The Fed said March 23 it would revive the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to back the flow of credit to households and businesses. That facility will support the issuance of asset-backed securities backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans and Small Business Administration-guaranteed loans, which will offer some relief to those borrowers.
- Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility - The Paycheck Protection Program, administered by Treasury and the Small Business Administration, is designed to help small firms pay their employees and cover expenses during the pandemic. Many of the loans — made by banks, credit unions and other approved lenders — will be converted to grants if borrowers meet certain conditions.
- Municipal Liquidity Facility - The Fed on April 9 said it would create a Municipal Liquidity Facility to support state and local governments with up to $500 billion in lending. Treasury committed to backing $35 billion for the facility using funds appropriated by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act.
- Main Street Lending Program - The Fed said April 9 it would purchase up to $600 billion in loans through the Main Street Lending Program, which Congress allowed for in the stimulus package it passed in March. Through the program, eligible businesses will be able to obtain four-year loans, with principal and interest payments deferred for a year. Those companies “must commit to make reasonable efforts to maintain payroll and retain workers” and comply with the stock buyback restrictions laid out in the CARES Act.
An absolutely enormous output gap is forming -The output gap is a concept we got familiar with during the global financial crisis. But it’s time to revisit it, in some detail. One reason the measure often gets overlooked in mainstream headlines is because it doesn’t sound all that consequential. Yet it is. Arguably more so than ever. Encumbering its popularity, however, is the fact it’s not always universally considered to be a thing. Saltwater-type economists (a.k.a the stimulus inclined) are far more partial to backing its theoretical existence than fresh water austerity types because it helps them justify more government spending. Added to that, it’s also notoriously difficult to measure in real time.The measure’s importance today, however, relates to it being uniquely useful in expressing the equity that’s been lost in the economic system because of Covid-19 lockdowns. This equity isn’t just something that can be conjured up out of thin air when we restart. It’s a real loss that can only be compensated for with faster than usual catch-up growth. In many cases, however, missed opportunities are gone forever. While the scale of the lockdown-triggered economic slump may finally be penetrating mainstream consciousness, we think there’s a strange denial — even in supposedly informed policy circles — about the scale of the wealth that’s been permanently destroyed. Only the output gap can properly illustrate the damage, which is why it’s time to make the measure popular again. In its simplest terms, the output gap measures the difference between actual output (or GDP) and potential output (or potential GDP). Since this gap illustrates how much better the economy could be faring at any given time had whatever demand shock which slowed growth not occurred, it indicates the theoretical excess supply capacity in the system. Whenever output is running under potential output, there is said to be economic slack, which supposedly justifies additional stimulus as the slack is the factor that is likely to keep price inflation at bay. Or so the theory goes. Today’s crisis is clearly very different to 2008. But one key factor differentiating it is the widely held (and potentially very wrong) perception that the slump is only temporary. This is important because so much private and public policy is now being determined by the notion that the economy can be easily stop-started without any real long-term negative consequences. What that theory neglects is the amount of damage that has been wrought on the supply side — effectively wiping out potential GDP as well as actual GDP. The output gap might offer a clue to the size of this forever-lost GDP. Here, via Guggenheim Investments, is a good depiction of how policymakers view the current output gap stalking the US economy:It took 10 years to catch up on the output lost in 2008. The newly formed wedge in the chart implies we are starting all over again, and this time from an even more extreme scenario.
“History Warns Us How to Avoid a W” - Will the Coronavirus Recession of 2020 be V-shaped? Or U-shaped? If we fail to heed the lessons of history it is likely to be W-shaped, with incipient recovery followed by successive relapses into sickness and recession. As has been widely noted, we would have been better prepared to cope with the Covid19 pandemic in the first place if everyone had paid more attention to the past history of epidemics. Be that as it may, the world is now deep into the pandemic and its economic consequences, the most severe such events since the interwar period, 1918-1939. As decision-makers in every country contemplate their next steps, they would do well to ponder the precedents of that interwar period. As recently as March, a pattern of V-shaped bounce-backs in individual economies seemed plausible. The argument was that once the rates of infection and death peaked and declined, people will eagerly go back to work. Economic activity might even get an extra boost, as consumers release pent-up demand and firms rush to fill back orders and to re-stock inventories. The macroeconomic effects of earthquakes and hurricanes and other natural disasters usually exhibit V-shapes of this sort. When China was hit by SARS in 2003, for example, there was a clear negative effect on output in the second quarter of that year, estimated at 2 %, but the subsequent recovery was so fast that there was little observable impact on the year’s GDP. Indeed, China itself reports that industrial production bounced back sharply in March from the February plunge. But it is clear by now that a V-shape forecast would be too optimistic overall. For one thing, even in a rosy scenario where the health effects of Covid-19 in individual countries faded quickly and allowed people to go back to work safely, the aggregate global outlook would not be V-shaped. Different countries are in different time phases, with the epicenter having started China, then moving to other East Asian countries, then Europe, the US, and the developing world. Even a country that is in a relatively healthy phase (either before or after the worst of the attack) is adversely impacted by the loss of trade with other countries that are in bad phases.More likely than a V-shape, the best we can hope for is a U-shaped recovery. Certain segments of the economy go back to work, with employees spaced out spatially as well as spaced out over time in shifts, if possible. Meanwhile other segments remain shut down for longer. One would think that some of the lowest candidates for early re-opening would be stadiums, theaters, bars, beauty salons, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors. 60% of business leaders expect a “U” shape, according to a poll of 3,500 chief executives reported by the World Economic Forum April 24.
Fed’s Evans Hopeful for Second-Half Recovery, but Says a Lot Needs to Go Right – WSJ -Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Tuesday he was hopeful the economy could return to growth in the second half of the year, but he added there was substantial uncertainty to that outlook and noted a lot has to go right on the policy front to make it happen. With the coronavirus crisis still playing out, “the path of the economy is really not yet clear,” Mr. Evans said in a conference call with reporters. “I am optimistic that the economy is going to pick up in the second half of the year,” explaining that is slightly more likely to happen than a scenario in which the economy suffers an extended downturn, as the nation tries to mitigate health risks stemming from the pandemic. READ THE TRANSCRIPT But Mr. Evans warned that a positive outcome depends on what policy makers do. “To the extent that policy makers, federal, state, local, are all better aligned on maintaining their own activities, which also provide employment and income, and also support local businesses, that will be important,” he said. “If we end up having huge disagreements over how that takes place, I think that also ends up being a headwind” to a recovery. Mr. Evans noted that some states were starting to take steps to open up their economies. “The relaxing of stay-at-home policies is a bold decision with pretty high risks,” Mr. Evans said. “We will learn something from these experiments.” Mr. Evans said he expected to see the jobless rate, now at 4.4%, rise into the teens. He added that job recovery would be slow and closely linked to the actions government and the private sector took. “I do think that the baseline outcome, where the unemployment rate goes down to, you know, 5 to 6% at the end of 2021 involves a lot of things going right. And I’m optimistic we can do that but it takes commitment and it takes patience too, and patience is usually in short supply,” Mr. Evans said.
Yields Surge After Treasury Announces Record $96BN In Treasury Refunding, Launches 20-Year Coupon Bond - Two days after the Treasury announced it would sell a record $3 trillion (sorry, $2.999 trillion) in debt in the current quarter... ... moments ago we got the details of what the upcoming helicopter money takeoff will look like when the Treasury issued its quarterly refunding announcement. The Treasury will boost long-term refunding debt sales next week to a record $96 billion to refund approximately $57 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on May 15, 2020, and raising $39 billion in new cash:
- Treasury to sell $42BN of 3-year notes on May 11, in line with the $42BN estimate
- Treasury to sell $32BN of 10-year notes on May 12, greater than the $29BN estimate
- Treasury to sell $20BN of 20-year bonds on May 20, greater than the $15BN estimate
- Treasury to sell $22BN of 30-year bonds on May 13, greater than the $20BN estimate
Total combined sales of $96BN for the three maturities is a big jump from the $84BN last quarter, a level that had held for the past five quarters.
- As noted previously, the Treasury is launching a 20-year bond for the first time since the 1980s for $20BN (Exp. 15BN).
- Exploring the possibility of issuing a floating rate SOFR-linked issue
- Intends to mostly increase auction sizes for FRN, TIPS to remain unchanged
- Treasury expects to begin to shift financing from bills to longer-dated tenors over the coming quarters
U.S. Budget Deficit Hit $737 Billion in April as Taxes Slow, Spending Rises, CBO Says – WSJ —Federal spending and budget deficits soared in April as the government raced to counter the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The government spent $976 billion and recorded a budget deficit of $737 billion, according to a CBO estimate released Friday. The deficit stemmed from the deteriorating economy, delays in tax deadlines and the government’s efforts to fill the holes in household and corporate budgets. Tax revenue in April was $239 billion, a 55% drop from last year, as individuals and companies deferred payments. CBO expects that most of those payments will come later, but some won’t as businesses become insolvent. Federal spending in April was more than double what it was a year earlier. CBO recorded the one-time stimulus payments to individuals as spending, not tax refunds. Those one-time payments now total more than $218 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Friday. In addition, spending on Medicare, unemployment compensation and aid to states all rose. “A lot of these programs have been working as they were intended, broadly speaking,” said Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “These are getting cash out the door quickly.” As a share of the economy, the resulting deficit in April was more than double that of any other month in the past four decades, Mr. Akabas said. In late January, before the pandemic hit, CBO had projected the deficit for the entire fiscal year ending Sept. 30 at $1 trillion. Now, CBO expects a $3.7 trillion deficit for the fiscal year.
Pandemic Profiteering: How the Military Goes to the Head of the Covid-19 Bailout Line - At this moment of unprecedented crisis, you might think that those not overcome by the economic and mortal consequences of the coronavirus would be asking, “What can we do to help?” A few companies have indeed pivoted to making masks and ventilators for an overwhelmed medical establishment. Unfortunately, when it comes to the top officials of the Pentagon and the CEOs running a large part of the arms industry, examples abound of them asking what they can do to help themselves. Demands to use the Defense Production Act to direct firms to produce equipment needed to combat Covid-19 have sputtered, provoking strong resistance from industries worried first and foremost about their own profits. Even conservative Washington Post columnist Max Boot, alongtime supporter of increased Pentagon spending, has recently recanted, noting how just such budget priorities have weakened the ability of the United States to keep Americans safe from the virus. “It never made any sense, as Trump’s 2021 budget had initially proposed, to increase spending on nuclear weapons by $7 billion while cutting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funding by $1.2 billion,” he wrote. “Or to create an unnecessary Space Force out of the U.S. Air Force while eliminating the vitally important directorate of global health by folding it into another office within the National Security Council.” In fact, continuing to prioritize the U.S. military will only further weaken the country’s public health system. As a start, simply to call up doctors and nurses in the military reserves, as even Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has pointed out, would hurt the broader civilian response to the pandemic. After all, in their civilian lives many of them now work at domestic hospitals and medical centers deluged by Covid-19 patients. The present situation, however, hasn’t stopped military-industrial complex requests for bailouts. The National Defense Industrial Association, a trade group for the arms industry, typically asked the Pentagon to speed up contracts and awards for $160 billion in unobligated Department of Defense funds to its companies, which will involve pushing money out the door without even the most modest level of due diligence. Already under fire in the pre-pandemic moment for grotesque safety problems with its commercial jets, Boeing, the Pentagon’s second biggest contractor, received $26.3 billion last year. Now, that company has asked for $60 billion in government support. And you undoubtedly won’t be surprised to learn that Congress has already provided Boeing with some of that desired money in its recent bailout legislation. According to the Washington Post, $17 billion was carved out in that deal for companies “critical to maintaining national security” (with Boeing in particular in mind). And Boeing was far from alone.
Special Report: U.S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy - (Reuters) - As Washington and Beijing trade barbs over the coronavirus pandemic, a longer-term struggle between the two Pacific powers is at a turning point, as the United States rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China. The United States has largely stood by in recent decades as China dramatically expanded its military firepower. Now, having shed the constraints of a Cold War-era arms control treaty, the Trump administration is planning to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. The Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile now carried on U.S. warships, according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and Congressional testimony in March of senior U.S. military commanders. It is also accelerating deliveries of its first new long-range anti-ship missiles in decades. In a statement to Reuters about the latest U.S. moves, Beijing urged Washington to “be cautious in word and deed,” to “stop moving chess pieces around” the region, and to “stop flexing its military muscles around China.” The U.S. moves are aimed at countering China’s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles. The Pentagon also intends to dial back China’s lead in what strategists refer to as the “range war.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s military, has built up a huge force of missiles that mostly outrange those of the U.S. and its regional allies, according to senior U.S. commanders and strategic advisers to the Pentagon, who have been warning that China holds a clear advantage in these weapons. And, in a radical shift in tactics, the Marines will join forces with the U.S. Navy in attacking an enemy’s warships. Small and mobile units of U.S. Marines armed with anti-ship missiles will become ship killers. In a conflict, these units will be dispersed at key points in the Western Pacific and along the so-called first island chain, commanders said. The first island chain is the string of islands that run from the Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China’s coastal seas. Top U.S. military commanders explained the new tactics to Congress in March in a series of budget hearings. The commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, General David Berger, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 5 that small units of Marines armed with precision missiles could assist the U.S. Navy to gain control of the seas, particularly in the Western Pacific. “The Tomahawk missile is one of the tools that is going to allow us to do that,” he said.
Military Experts Urge China To Expand Nuclear Arsenal As Deterrence Against US --Rising geopolitical uncertainties between the US and China have been made worse by the pandemic as new rounds of tensions are unfolding on the heels of a possible flare-up of the trade war. The new reality is that Cold War 2.0 could be materializing as both countries fall into the Thucydides Trap, where a rising power (China) challenges the status quo power (the US). This often leads to a hot military conflict and both Washington and Beijing understand that could be a future reality. Just one day after we reported an uptick in American long-range bomber activity over the East China Sea, the Global Times states on Friday (May 8) that Chinese military experts have urged Beijing to expand its nuclear arsenal as new measures to deter the US from the region. Global Times Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin said China needs to immediately increase nuclear warhead stockpiles to 1,000 and focus on having 100 DF-41 ballistic missiles ready for use. Each DF-41 can carry a nuclear payload and strike London or the US. Song Zhongping, a leading military expert in China, told the Times on Friday that Washington's ambitions in the Pacific region are "threatening China in all fields." He said the US no longer sees nuclear weapons as just a deterrence as they are being deployed on the battlefield, adding that China must increase its nuclear arsenal to combat this evolving threat. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying was asked on Friday if China would produce more nuclear warheads and DF-41s. He responded by saying countries should have prioritized responsibility and an obligation to reduce strategic nuclear weapons."Chunying said China operates under the "no first use" rule when it comes to nuclear weapons. "China views nuclear weapons only as strategic deterrence, but any deterrence needs to be strong enough to halt military aggression toward China," analysts told the Times.
Trump administration pushing to rip global supply chains from China: officials - (Reuters) - The Trump administration is “turbocharging” an initiative to remove global industrial supply chains from China as it weighs new tariffs to punish Beijing for its handling of the coronavirus outbreak, according to officials familiar with U.S. planning. President Donald Trump, who has stepped up recent attacks on China ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election, has long pledged to bring manufacturing back from overseas. Now, economic destruction and the U.S. coronavirus death toll are driving a government-wide push to move U.S. production and supply chain dependency away from China, even if it goes to other more friendly nations instead, current and former senior U.S. administration officials said. “We’ve been working on (reducing the reliance of our supply chains in China) over the last few years but we are now turbo-charging that initiative,” Keith Krach, undersecretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment at the State Department told Reuters. “I think it is essential to understand where the critical areas are and where critical bottlenecks exist,” Krach said, adding that the matter was key to U.S. security and one the government could announce new action on soon.
Coronavirus Casts Deep Chill Over U.S.-China Relations – WSJ -Relations between the U.S. and China, strained for years, have deteriorated at a rapid clip in recent months, leaving the two nations with fewer shared interests and a growing list of conflicts.The Trump administration has moved to involve much of the U.S. government in a campaign that includes investigations, prosecutions and export restrictions. Nearly every cabinet and cabinet-level official either has adopted adversarial positions or jettisoned past cooperative programs with Beijing, an analysis of their policies showed.Chinese officials, for their part, are following through on President Xi Jinping’s call last fall to resist anything they perceive as standing in the way of China’s rise. They have stepped up military activities in the contested South China Sea and intimidation of Taiwan, a U.S. ally, and state media has issued extraordinary public denunciations of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.The coronavirus pandemic has deepened the rancor, bringing relations between the two to a modern-day nadir. Both governments are forgoing cooperation and trying to outmaneuver each other to shape events in the post-pandemic world order.President Trump, who has sharply criticized China for its handling of the outbreak, has said he is considering using tariffs and other ways to collect compensation for it from Beijing, though senior officials signaled this week that the administration is holding off on punishing China economically.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has publicly speculated that the U.S. military unleashed the virus in China—an idea amplified by state media but described as absurd by the Pentagon. A new State Department report concludes that Beijing and its allies are mounting a disinformation campaign against the U.S. over the outbreak. “It is, essentially, geopolitics strikes back,” said Matt Turpin, who served as China director at the National Security Council earlier in the Trump administration. The U.S. needs to confront China, he said, because “hiding our head in the sand will not make things better.”
China says it backs WHO in tracing COVID-19, denounces U.S. 'lies' - (Reuters) - China said on Thursday it supports the World Health Organization (WHO) in trying to pinpoint the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and accused U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of telling one lie after another in his attacks on Beijing. The virus has killed more than 255,000 people worldwide, including more than 70,000 in the United States, the worst-affected country, since it was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Pompeo accused China of withholding virus samples he said were needed for global vaccine research, and he demanded transparency. Most experts believe COVID-19 originated in a market selling wildlife and jumped from animals to people, but Pompeo and U.S. President Donald Trump have said there is evidence it came from a laboratory, without elaborating. Pompeo also accused the WHO of being too slow to respond to the disease and said it “needs to still demand that there be an investigation” in China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, addressing reporters in Beijing on Thursday, said China supported WHO efforts to investigate the origin of the pandemic. “We are always open to cooperate with the WHO on matters, including on the question of origin,” she said. But she repeated a timeline of signals from France, Sweden and the United States itself that the virus may not have emerged in China. “While scientists have not come to a conclusion, why is Secretary Pompeo drawing the hasty conclusion that the virus came from a Wuhan lab? Where is his proof? Show us the proof. If he cannot show any evidence, then he may still be in the process of making up this evidence.”
Commentary: Washington's Machiavellian maneuvers undermine world's pandemic endeavors - Xinhua (Xinhua) -- Niccolo Machiavelli might have never anticipated that his booklet on politics The Prince would become a handbook for politicians who resonate with the doctrine of deception and ruthlessness in political maneuvering over the centuries following his death. One of Machiavelli's key lessons is, "He who seeks to deceive will always find someone who will allow himself to be deceived." It turns out that some Washington politicians are truly good students of that teaching. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policy-makers in the White House have been doing everything they can to manipulate public opinion in their own country and that of the world. At first, they didn't bother to take the repeated early warnings coming from its own intelligent officers and experts, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Beijing seriously, called the raging pandemic a "hoax," and misinformed the public that the virus was a "flu" that would disappear miraculously. When the pandemic started to grow rampant in the United States, they began to pretend as if they knew nothing about the pathogen, and blamed China, the WHO, the previous U.S. administration, the so-called deep state in America, and whoever else they could think of, except themselves. Machiavelli also taught that "the end justifies the means." In a bid to ensure an election victory in November, the current U.S. administration cares more about ballots than body counts. They are sidelining the role of scientists and common sense in decision-making, ready to silence or sack people like Rick Bright, a leading U.S. vaccine scientist, who dissented against the powerful, and attempting to reopen the country against the advice of professional opinion. They match literally every part of Machiavelli's "successful ruler" description by being "brutal, calculating and, when necessary, utterly immoral." The third Machiavellian doctrine this White House seems to have drawn inspiration from is "The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present." Today, Washington has decided those global governance arrangements it once supported now go against its desire to put "America First," or in other words, put itself well above all others. It has thus begun to practice a withdrawal doctrine. For more than three years, this administration has cut itself loose from a host of international organizations or treaties. Most recently, it announced a suspension of funding for the WHO while accusing it of "severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus." The fact that the United States is now the world's epicenter in the pandemic should serve as a wake-up call for some Washington politicians that zero-sum, calculative and self-serving Machiavellian teachings are part of the problem, not the solution, in coping with this unprecedented global public health crisis.
Trump vetoes war powers resolution on Iran - The United States Senate Thursday fell well short of the two-thirds majority needed to override President Donald Trump’s veto of a war powers resolution that purported to limit his authority to wage aggressive war against Iran. Forty-nine senators voted against the veto and 44 to sustain it. Seven Republicans joined Democrats in voting to override the president’s actions. This was similar to the lineup in the February Senate vote to pass the resolution, when eight Republicans joined Democrats in supporting it. While the legislation was passed by the Senate in February and the House in March, it took nearly two months to get to the White House because of the coronavirus pandemic. The legislation was introduced in the wake of the criminal January 3 drone missile assassination of Gen. Qassem Suleimani, one of Iran’s most senior leaders, shortly after he arrived at Baghdad international airport on a diplomatic mission to meet with then Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. A top leader of Iraq’s Shia militia movement, part of the country’s armed forces, was also killed in the attack, along with several other Iranians and Iraqis. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Trump’s veto in remarks delivered on the Senate floor Thursday, calling the war powers resolution “misguided” and defending the assassination of the Iranian leader, “We must maintain the measure of deterrence we restored with the decisive strike on Suleimani.” Democratic Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, one of the principal sponsors of the legislation, used his own remarks to insist that the measure was “not part of a strategy to hurt President Trump.” He added, “I’ve advocated these same positions as have other members of this body under presidents who were both Democratic and Republican.” For his part, Trump issued two statements, one a formal presidential veto message and the other a crudely political statement issued from the Pentagon in which he described the bill as a “very insulting resolution, introduced by Democrats as part of a strategy to win an election on November 3 by dividing the Republican Party.” He accused the eight Republicans who voted in favor of the measure of having “played right into their hands.” He continued by insisting that the resolution was unnecessary, declaring that the US “not engaged in the use of force against Iran.” He indicated that the assassination of Suleimani in Iraq followed by Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, in which no American personnel were killed, had ended the matter. As for the assassination, he claimed it “was fully authorized by law, including by the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 and Article II of the Constitution.” He criticized the war powers resolution for implying that the US president’s right to launch a war without congressional approval was limited to the defense of the United States and its military against “imminent attack.”
US Senate reconvenes to push return to work and social cuts - The United States Senate reconvened Monday after a five-week absence from the nation’s Capitol. It last met to pass by a unanimous 96-0 vote—including the votes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren—the most massive corporate bailout in world history: the $2.2 trillion CARES Act. The Republican-controlled Senate returned to the Capitol despite an ongoing spike in coronavirus infections and deaths in Washington DC and its environs, and a stay-at-home order in the capital that extends until May 16. The Senate’s reopening followed President Trump’s Sunday evening virtual “town hall” staged at the Lincoln Memorial and broadcast by Fox News. Titled “America Together Returning to Work,” the event was a platform for Trump to use demagogy and lies to justify forcing workers back to work under potentially deadly conditions. During the event, both Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin poured cold water on previous assurances that financial aid to states and localities facing massive pandemic-related deficits would be included in a new stimulus bill to be negotiated between the White House and Congress. Mnuchin said, “We’re not looking to bail out states that were poorly managed.” Trump also announced that he would not support any bill that did not include a payroll tax cut. This measure would provide a further tax windfall for the wealthy while slashing revenues for Social Security and Medicare, which are funded by the tax on workers and employers. In a joint statement, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy added the demand that the next bill relieve businesses of legal liability for causing disease or death to employees by failing to provide a safe work environment. This would effectively cut off all legal avenues for workers and family members to sue companies for jeopardizing their health and lives, essentially giving businesses a green light to work employees to death in the midst of the pandemic. That the securing of such legal immunity is considered a critical issue by corporations preparing to force millions of workers back into factories, offices and other workplaces is indicated by Monday’s edition of the Democratic-aligned Washington Post, owned by Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos.
McConnell pressed to expand coronavirus testing in Senate - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is coming under pressure to increase testing for the coronavirus in the Senate amid concerns that the Capitol could become a hot spot and wind up spreading infection around the country. Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), one of McConnell’s close allies who is retiring at the end of this Congress, pressed the GOP leader on Tuesday to have all members of the upper chamber tested for the highly contagious virus before flying back to their home states. “Members of Congress would represent sort of a virus-spreading machine, coming in here to a coronavirus hot spot and then going home,” Alexander told reporters after attending a lunch meeting of Republican senators Tuesday. Alexander, who has taken the lead for GOP senators on assessing the deployment of tests, said McConnell “knows my thoughts.” “It doesn’t make a lot of sense to fly 535 people in from all over the country to a coronavirus hot spot and then send them home on Thursday and Friday. It would take an army of public health workers to track and trace all the people they might have exposed,” he said. Congress’s attending physician, Brian Monahan, notified GOP leaders last week that only senators who show signs of sickness would be tested for the coronavirus and that it would take two days to get results. That prompted the Trump administration on Friday to offer sending three Abbott point-of-care testing machines to Capitol Hill along with 1,000 tests. In a rare bipartisan statement, McConnell and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) declined the rapid-testing machines, urging the administration in a joint statement to send them “to the front-line facilities where they can do the most good the most quickly.” Alexander, 79, on Tuesday said leaders should reconsider to avoid the risk that Congress itself becomes an engine for spreading infection. “I think there will be a very rapid change in attitudes about accepting the president’s offer to test members of Congress for COVID-19, especially as the House comes back,” he said.
Stimulus Spending Emerges as Friction Point in Congress – WSJ —After committing trillions of dollars to support the coronavirus-stricken economy, lawmakers are starting to disagree on how much more to spend—and whether pulling back too soon could stunt a recovery. Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, say trillions more will be needed to help states, workers and business contend with a recession that is forecast to be the deepest since the 1930s. Senate Republicans—particularly Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—say they are starting to be concerned about the risk of wasteful spending and the ballooning national debt. Congress has authorized $3.5 trillion in new spending in the past five weeks. As a proportion of gross domestic product, that is about what it spent over five years during and after the last recession, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington group that favors deficit reduction. The Congressional Budget Office projects the annual budget deficit will nearly quadruple by the end of the fiscal year in September to $3.7 trillion, pushing debt to 101% as a share of gross domestic product, the highest since the end of World War II. In normal times, that might prompt deficit hawks to worry that public debt will crowd out private borrowing or that federal borrowing costs would rise. But these aren’t normal times. Proponents of more spending cite the lessons of the 2007-09 recession, when a burst of stimulus was quickly followed by efforts to rein in the budget deficit. They say the pullback was premature and made the downturn deeper and longer. Even those who normally advocate fiscal prudence say it is no time to fret about deficits. “When your farm is burning, you don’t worry if you have enough water to make it through the next three crop seasons. You put out the fire and then you worry about it later,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Similarly, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has long said the U.S. must put its fiscal house in order, said that calls for deficit reduction now are misplaced. “This is not the time to act on those concerns,” he said at a virtual news conference last week. “This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to…get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible.”
Demand for Small-Business Loans Cools – WSJ —When the federal government relaunched its small business aid program on April 27 with an additional $310 billion, lenders and business advocates warned the money would dry up within a few days. Nearly two weeks later, about 40% of the money remains available, according to figures released late Friday by the Small Business Administration, even as small businesses continue to suffer from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. Several factors appear to be behind cooling demand, including the Treasury Department’s decision following an uproar to exclude public companies and others that could obtain funding elsewhere. Another reason: Some borrowers sought duplicate loans from several lenders as a backstop against loan denials or delays, according to bankers and small business advisers. Bigger banks found that more than 10% of their applications were duplicates, according to loan brokers and industry officials. Some smaller lenders reported that half their applications were rejected because the applicant had gotten a loan elsewhere. But the likely biggest reason for the slowdown is that many business owners have concluded that the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program simply doesn’t meet their needs, lenders and others say, or they are waiting for the government to clarify the terms under which loans can be forgiven. The program is generally aimed at companies with 500 or fewer employees, and it requires them to spend 75% of their loans on payroll to have the loan forgiven. Many small retail businesses, such as restaurants and hair salons, say that is a problem because they remain largely shut down and are operating with skeletal staffs.
Tax Deductions Tied to Forgiven Small Business Loans Draw Support – WSJ —Bipartisan momentum is building in Congress to let small businesses get tax-free loan forgiveness while also deducting their expenses, a move that would provide clarity and unusually generous tax benefits. Top lawmakers in both parties asked the Internal Revenue Service Tuesday to reverse a ruling that would deny those deductions. And senior senators backed legislation that would overturn the IRS ruling if the agency doesn’t change its position, though how quickly such a bill could move through Congress is far from certain. The outcome could have hundreds of billions of dollars of consequences for businesses benefiting from the Paycheck Protection Program, which Congress created in March to help small-businesses weather the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Under that program, companies can get low-interest loans and then have those loans turn into grants if the money is used to maintain payrolls and pay other expenses. The program has proven exceptionally popular, and Congress replenished it after the money ran out within weeks. PPP is now authorized for $660 billion. The economic-relief law from March explicitly says that the loan forgiveness doesn’t count as taxable income, as it would under normal tax rules. But that law was silent on whether companies could still deduct the associated wages and other expenses.Last week, the IRS said it would deny those deductions, citing a tax code section that prevents companies from taking deductions tied to tax-exempt income. Allowing the deductions, the agency argued, would offer a double benefit. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has defended the decision. “If the money that’s coming is not taxable, you can’t double dip,” he said on Fox Business on Monday. “This is basically tax 101.” If the deductions are allowed, businesses could use them to offset other income. If companies are losing money, they could use the deductions to offset past years’ income and get refunds.
IRS Reverses Itself, Allows Tax Credit for Benefits Paid to Furloughed Workers – WSJ —The Internal Revenue Service, bowing to pressure from lawmakers and business groups, will let companies with furloughed, unpaid employees get a tax credit for paying their health benefits. Companies can now claim a tax credit worth up to $5,000 for each employee who isn’t being paid and isn’t working but is still receiving employer-provided health benefits. That is a common practice now for large companies in the retail and hospitality industries that are trying to conserve cash amid the coronavirus pandemic. The employers are trying to keep workers linked to their jobs so they could return quickly later as businesses reopen. Last week, the IRS released a set of frequently asked questions on the tax credit, which covers 50% of wages and health benefits up to $10,000. The IRS said then that companies had to pay some wages in order to claim the credit for part of the health benefits. That drew quick rebukes from businesses and from top lawmakers. In a letter sent Monday, Sens. Charles Grassley (R., Iowa) and Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) and Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.) asked Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to reconsider. On Thursday, the Treasury Department said it would revise the rules, and the IRS then posted updated questions. That updated version includes an example that allows the credit for benefits, even for companies that are not paying wages. “The Chamber appreciates the Treasury’s responsiveness to concerns,” said Caroline Harris, vice president for tax policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “We look forward to continuing to work together towards a strong economic recovery.”
Millionaires to reap 80% of benefit from tax change in US coronavirus stimulus - Millionaires and billionaires are set to reap more than 80% of the benefits from a change to the tax law Republicans put in the coronavirus economic relief package, according to a non-partisan congressional committee.The change – which alters what certain business owners are allowed to deduct from their taxes – will allow some of the nation’s wealthiest to avoid nearly $82bn of tax liability in 2020.Nearly 82% of the benefits from the tax law change will go to people making $1m or more annually in 2020, according to an analysis by the joint committee on taxation (JCT). Overall, 95% of individuals who benefit from the change make $200,000 or more.Taxpayers will lose nearly $90bn from the change, which suspends a restriction introduced in the 2017 tax bill.The change allows owners of businesses known as pass-through entities to lower their taxes by deducting as much as they want against income unrelated to the business. Before, owners of pass-through entities could deduct a maximum of $250,000 in losses from non-business income such as stocks and bonds. This limitation was introduced in the 2017 law to offset other tax benefits going to firms.Because of the suspension, the JCT estimated 43,000 people making $1m or more would owe a total of $70.3bn less in taxes in 2020. Less than 3% of the benefits from the change will go to Americans earning less than $100,000 a year. Steve Rosenthal, a tax expert at the Tax Policy Center, a non-partisan thinktank, told the Washington Post hedge-fund investors and owners of real estate would benefit most from the change.
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez House Bill Would Allow FEMA to Provide Pandemic Relief - As the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 stood above 63,000 people Friday—with over a million confirmed cases nationwide—Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced a bill in the U.S. House that would enable a federal relief agency to provide disaster assistance during pandemics. The Democratic congresswoman represents New York's 14th district, which—along with the rest of New York City—has been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. The Pandemic Disaster Assistance Act was introduced in the upper chamber in March by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) can currently only give financial assistance to individuals impacted by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and wildfires. Harris and Ocasio-Cortez's bill would amend existing law to add pandemics to the emergencies that qualify for FEMA relief. "Nearly 20,000 people in my district have tested positive for a deadly virus," Ocasio-Cortez said in a statement Friday. "Thousands of my constituents are without work. We built temporary field hospitals in public parks. This is what a disaster looks like. FEMA needs to begin immediately dispersing aid to individuals hurt by Covid-19." Under the proposal, following approval from a governor and the president, individuals impacted by a pandemic would be allowed to apply for Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA) and Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP), the federal benefits commonly called food stamps. Those affected by an approved public health crisis would also be able to qualify for other assistance from FEMA. Specifically, Harris and Ocasio-Cortez highlighted help with medical, funeral, and childcare expenses as "critical" for people who have endured a pandemic like the ongoing Covid-19 disaster. "We are in the midst of an unprecedented public health and economic crisis, and people are hurting," Harris said Friday. "The magnitude of this crisis demands that FEMA treat those impacted by pandemics the same as it does when a natural disaster strikes." "That includes providing disaster food assistance, disaster unemployment assistance, and help paying for funerals," Harris added. "I'm proud to partner with Rep. Ocasio-Cortez on this legislation to ensure the federal government uses every tool available to help the American people recover from this crisis."
House Democrats Close In on New Stimulus Proposal – WSJ —House Democrats are putting the finishing touches on their next legislative response to the coronavirus pandemic, a package that will propose another massive round of aid just as President Trump and Senate Republicans are urging caution on quickly passing new spending.The bill being drafted by Democratic leadership is expected to include more than $750 billion in aid to state and local governments, as well as another round of direct support to Americans, according to interviews with lawmakers and aides. Leaders also say they are interested in extending enhanced unemployment benefits, but haven’t provided specifics.House Democrats also want to increase access to coronavirus testing, send money toward vote-by-mail programs and the Postal Service, provide safety protections for front-line workers who are at risk of contracting and spreading the virus, and expand Americans’ access to broadband. They hope to have the bill ready next week.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said she had not talked with Republicans or the administration about the House’s wish list, but she said she hoped many of the proposals in the bill would draw bipartisan support.“We’re not drawing any red lines in the sand or anything like that,” she said.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) has taken a wait-and-see approach on new funding, after Congress passed more than $3 trillion in aid in a matter of months, responding to deep layoffs across the economy. He has called liability protections for businesses his central demand in new talks.“What I want to make very clear to them, is that if there is another rescue package, it must include and will include liability protections related narrowly to the coronavirus pandemic,” he said on Fox News. “That will have to be a part of any rescue package.”
Formal Talks Paused on Next Stimulus Package, Trump Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow Says – WSJ —A top economic adviser to President Trump said formal negotiations over the next coronavirus relief package won’t resume until late May or early June, as the administration takes a wait-and-see approach on further spending. “We’re kind of paused as far as formal negotiations go,” Larry Kudlow, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, told reporters on Friday. Mr. Kudlow said the administration is continuing to have informal conversations with lawmakers, noting that he and Kevin Hassett, another economic adviser to the president, spoke by phone with several dozen House lawmakers on Thursday. The comments come as top House Democrats are working on their next aid proposal, which is expected to include hundreds of billions of dollars in new aid for states and cities, as well as additional money for households. In the Senate, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) has called for a pause on new aid and has been cool to the idea of more money for states and cities. In the next round of talks, he is prioritizing a liability shield for businesses operating during the pandemic, calling it Republicans’ must-have “red line.” The president has pushed to include infrastructure improvements and a payroll tax cut in the next round of economic stimulus, but those proposals have gained little traction on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers have approved more than $3 trillion in spending over several bills to combat the virus and the economic crisis it unleashed. Congressional Republicans have suggested waiting until the money that Congress has appropriated is distributed, citing concerns about spending and deficits. “We’ll see what happens,” Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R., Ala.) said on Thursday. “You know, I think we ought to see how this money is being spent and I hope it’s spent wisely.”
Trump volunteers kept 'VIP' list of leads for medical supplies: report - Volunteers who helped oversee the Trump administration’s supply-chain task force were encouraged to prioritize assistance and tips from political allies and associates of President Trump, The New York Times reports.The volunteers tracked those whose assistant they prioritized on a “VIP Update” spreadsheet, The Times reported, citing documents and emails it obtained. Included on the list were Republican members of Congress, conservative activist Charlie Kirk and Tana Goertz, a former “Apprentice” contestant and Trump surrogate.However, few of the leads, both garnered from the VIP list and other sources, were fruitful, according to a whistleblower memo written by one volunteer and obtained by The Times. “The nature and scale of the response seemed grossly inadequate,” the volunteer told The Times on condition of anonymity. “It was bureaucratic cycles of chaos.” The whistleblower's memo was sent to the House Oversight and Reform Committee on April 8, according to The Washington Post.The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill.The group of roughly a dozen volunteers was recruited by Trump's son-in-law and senior White House adviser Jared Kushner and overseen by a former aide to Ivanka Trump, The Times noted. They were tasked with combing through over a thousand leads and told to send along the best ones for further review by FEMA officials.
“Like a Bully at the Lunchroom”: How the Federal Government Took Control of the PPE Pipeline – On April 1, just as reports confirmed that the U.S. had more coronavirus cases than any other country, the owner of a small medical-equipment supplier was contacted by an agent for the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who was, the agent revealed, just minutes away from his personal residence. Caught off guard, he asked what the problem was. The agent replied that the businessman was being investigated by the FBI for price gouging and hoarding medical supplies. Upon arriving at the businessman’s home, the FBI agent asked whether he had any upcoming PPE shipments scheduled, and the businessman replied that he had three shipments set to arrive from China at New York’s JFK Airport. The agent also asked the businessman to hand over his purchase orders and invoices to customers—customers that included fire departments, nursing homes, and EMT departments. The businessman obliged. “They knew how much I bought it for and how much I sold it for. So you could do the math…and you could clearly see I was not price gouging,” he said. “This is the lowest margin I’ve ever made on any safety products” in 25 years in the business, he added. Moreover, he said that until March 1, he had “zero inventory...That’s why the press conference did not happen until 30 days [later]. When [coronavirus] hit in March, I said I have to get some N95 respirators, and that’s when I reached out to the factory in China.” He had never worked with the factory before, but he had a preexisting relationship with a Chinese broker, who put them in touch. He typically orders coveralls—up to 20,000 at a time. Orders for N95 respirators are less common; he typically orders batches of 500,000. This time he put in an order for 1 million. As the coronavirus crisis has dragged on, scattered reports have emerged of the federal government seizing PPE shipments. State leaders in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida have accused FEMA and the federal government of diverting their orders for protective gear. Colorado governor Jared Polis famously said his order of ventilators was “swept up” by the agency. Per the New York Times, the head of the board for the Kentucky Hospital Association wrote that four shipments of protective equipment intended for hospitals were taken by FEMA. In a statement to the Times last month, FEMA asserted it was not seizing any shipments and that “prioritizing PPE deliveries to COVID hot spots can have the unintended consequence of disrupting the regular supply-chain deliveries to other areas of the country that are also preparing for the coronavirus.”
Trump Moves To Replace Watchdog Who Reported Medical Shortages --President Trump is moving to replace the Department of Health and Human Services watchdog whose office found severe shortages of medical supplies in hospitals as COVID-19 cases surged. In a Friday night announcement, the White House named Jason Weida as its nominee to take the permanent inspector general post currently occupied by Christi Grimm, who's been in that role in an acting capacity since January.A longtime staffer with Health and Human Services, Grimm was leading the inspector general's office in April when it issued a report chronicling testing delays — up to seven days in some cases — as well as severe shortages of supplies in hospitals amid the COVID-19 pandemic."Hospitals reported that they were unable to keep up with COVID-19 testing demands because they lacked complete kits and/or the individual components and supplies needed to complete tests," the survey of 323 hospitals found. "When patient stays were extended while awaiting test results, this strained bed availability, personal protective equipment (PPE) supplies, and staffing." The report also recalled how one hospital had even resorted to making its own disinfectant. Trump reacted to the report by calling its findings "wrong," asking to know the name of the inspector general and suggesting the report was politically motivated. He later took to Twitter to castigate Grimm and the report even further.
U.S. Sits out as World Leaders Pledge $8 Billion to Find a COVID-19 Vaccine --World leaders met in a virtual summit on Monday and pledged $8 billion to ramp up efforts to find a vaccine and treatments for the novel coronavirus, but the U.S. was noticeably absent from the summit, as The Washington Post reported. The European Union-organized fundraiser brought together leaders from around the world, including Japan, Canada, Australia and Norway, to fund laboratories that have shown some promise in developing a vaccine. There were pledges from prime ministers, presidents, a king and even the pop star Madonna. The Trumpadministration said it is already spending billions for research in the U.S., according to The New York Times. The administration's disinterest in international cooperation has alarmed global health officials and diplomats seeking a worldwide effort to end the pandemic that has crippled global markets and killed more than 250,000 people. The concerns are growing that President Trump has squabbled with China over the origin of the disease and cut off U.S. support to the World Health Organization, as POLITICO reported. "The more we pull together and share our expertise, the faster our scientists will succeed," said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the conference, according to The Washington Post. "The race to discover the vaccine to defeat this virus is not a competition between countries but the most urgent shared endeavor of our lifetimes." The various leaders on the call pledged as much as they could and took a few moments to boast of their efforts to stop the pandemic. "The worst situation would be, if when these tools are available, they go to the highest bidder — that would be terrible for the world," said Melinda Gates, who, along with husband, Bill, has devoted billions to health research, as POLITICO reported. "Covid-19 anywhere is Covid-19 everywhere. And that's why it's got to take global cooperation." "It's the first time that I can think of where you have had a major international pledging conference for a global crisis of this kind of importance, and the U.S. is just absent," said Jeremy Konyndyk, who worked on the Ebola response in the Obama administration, as The Washington Post reported. He added that since nobody knows which research arm will succeed in a vaccine, it's crucial to back multiple simultaneous efforts. "Against that kind of uncertainty we should be trying to position ourselves to be supporting — and potentially benefiting from — all of them," said Konyndyk to The Washington Post. "And instead we seem to be just focused on trying to win the race, in the hopes we happen to get one of the successful ones."
Trump ready to turn page on COVID-19, despite crisis-level cases - The White House is preparing to wind down its coronavirus task force, officials said Tuesday, a decision that public health experts warn is short-sighted. The decision to disband the task force, which includes medical experts, public health officials and leaders from various government agencies, is the clearest indicator yet that the White House is ready to turn the page to focus on the economy, even as doing so could lead to a spike in infections. Vice President Pence told reporters that the task force may break up around Memorial Day, a timeline he previously cited for when he believes the worst of the pandemic will have passed. “I think we're having conversations about that and about what the proper time is for the task force to complete its work and for the ongoing efforts to take place on an agency-by-agency level,” he told reporters. “And we've already begun to talk about a transition plan with [the Federal Emergency Management Agency].” Health experts panned the decision. “It's like disbanding the war cabinet in the middle of a war,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health at Georgetown University. “It’s not like we’ve conquered COVID, and it’s not like it’s even on the downward trend.” Gostin questioned the benefits of allowing federal agencies to manage the response, citing high-profile issues in the past few months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) initial testing rollout was a debacle; the Food and Drug Administration has had difficulty regulating antibody tests and Health and Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar has seen his influence wane. “This is not the time to give short shrift to the public health response in order to focus on the economic recovery,” said Anand Parekh, the chief medical adviser to the Bipartisan Policy Council. “Rather, it’s a time to double down on the public health response while mitigating the economic consequences.” The White House press secretary brushed back criticism that it would move forward into the summer without health experts on hand to provide insight.
Trump Says U.S. Must Reopen Even If More Americans Get Sick, Die - President Donald Trump launched headlong into his push to reopen the country on Tuesday, saying Americans should begin returning to their everyday lives even if it leads to more sickness and death from the pandemic.Trump, speaking in Phoenix during his first trip outside Washington in more than a month, said he’s preparing for “phase two” of the U.S. response to the coronavirus. That will include disbanding the White House task force of public health experts, including Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, that have steered the government response to the outbreak so far.Trump acknowledged that reopening the economy would likely lead to more suffering.“Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said. “But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon.”On his visit to a Phoenix-based Honeywell International Inc. factory producing medical masks, Trump made his most forceful case yet that the economic damage to the country has become too great to sustain an extended shutdown. He encouraged Americans to think of themselves as “warriors” as they consider leaving their homes, a tacit acknowledgment of deep public reservations about re-opening the country too soon.The president has expressed increasing frustration with the coronavirus-sparked recession that has put more than 30 million Americans out of work and hurt his case for a second term. The U.S. continues to have the largest coronavirus outbreak in the world, with about 1.2 million people infected and more than 70,000 killed so far.Speaking separately in an ABC News interview that aired Tuesday evening, Trump said closing down the nation was “the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make.”And he was resolute about the decision to reopen the nation, despite the certainty of suffering it will cause until a vaccine is developed.“There’ll be more death,” he said. “The virus will pass, with or without a vaccine. And I think we’re doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it’s going to pass, and we’re going to be back to normal.”“But it’s been a rough process. There is no question about it,” Trump said. “I think our economy is going to be raging” next year, he added.
Emails show CDC chief cleared guidance shelved by White House: report The decision not to disclose detailed advice from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on reopening the country during the coronavirus pandemic was made by top officials at the White House. According to internal government emails obtained by The Associated Press, top public health experts at the CDC worked for weeks crafting guidance to help grapple with the pandemic, but political appointees shelved the guidance. The files also showed that the Trump administration ordered parts of the guidance to be fast-tracked for approval after the AP began reporting on it this week. The guidance from the CDC was intended to help guide religious leaders, business owners, educators and state and local officials as they begin to reopen amid a spike in business closures and unemployment claims. It reportedly includes flow charts meant to be used to consider alternate scenarios for reopening. When asked about the guidelines at a briefing Friday, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said that CDC Director Robert Redfield hadn’t approved them yet. “Yeah, so I would ask you, you know, what's the definition of CDC guidelines? Is it something that the CDC director has actually seen? I would endeavor to say yes. Is it something that a rogue CDC employee leaks to you guys? No, those aren't CDC guidelines; those are guidelines in draft form that a rogue employee has given you for whatever personal reason they've decided to do that. Those guidelines are in the editing process,” she said. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response director, also said that the CDC’s guidance on reopening is in the editing process. However, the AP reports that the latest guidance had in fact been approved and promoted by Redfield, who had sent the guidance documents to several top White House officials numerous times in April with the hopes of publishing them by May 1.
Government orders 100,000 new body bags as Trump minimizes death toll — The federal government placed orders for well over 100,000 new body bags to hold victims of COVID-19 in April, according to internal administration documents obtained by NBC News, as well as public records. The biggest set was earmarked for purchase the day after President Donald Trump projected that the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus might not exceed 50,000 or 60,000 people.That batch is a pending $5.1 million purchase order placed by theDepartment of Homeland Security on April 21 with E.M. Oil Transport Inc. of Montebello, California, which advertises construction vehicles, building materials and electronics on its website. The "human remains pouches" have not been paid for or shipped to the Federal Emergency Management Agency yet, according to the company's marketing manager, Mike Pryor."I hope to God that they don't need my order and that they cancel it," Pryor said in a text message exchange with NBC News.Body bag contracts bid by Homeland Security and the Veterans Affairs Department are just one illustration of how Trump's sunny confidence about the nation's readiness to reopen is in conflict with the views of officials in his own administration who are quietly preparing for a far worse outcome.Around the same time it wrote the contract for the body bags, FEMA opened up bidding to provide about 200 rented refrigerated trailers for locations around the country. The request for proposals specifies a preference for 53-foot trailers, which, at 3,600 cubic feet, are the largest in their class. The cache of internal documents obtained by NBC News includes an April 25 "pre-decisional draft" of the coronavirus task force's "incident outlook" for the response, a summary of the task force leaders' meeting the same day and various communications among officials at several agencies. The documents show that task force members remain worried about several major risks ahead, including insufficient availability of coronavirus tests, the absence of a vaccine or proven treatments for the coronavirus, and the possibility of a "catastrophic resurgence" of COVID-19.
Azar faulted workers' 'home and social' conditions for meatpacking outbreaks - The country’s top health official downplayed concerns over the public health conditions inside meatpacking plants, suggesting on a call with lawmakers that workers were more likely to catch coronavirus based on their social interactions and group living situations, three participants said. HHS Secretary Alex Azar told a bipartisan group that he believed infected employees were bringing the virus into processing plants where a rash of cases have killed at least 20 workers and forced nearly two-dozen plants to close, according to three people on the April 28 call. Those infections, he said, were linked more to the "home and social" aspects of workers' lives rather than the conditions inside the facilities, alarming some on the call who interpreted his remarks as faulting workers for the outbreaks, the people said. "He was essentially turning it around, blaming the victim and implying that their lifestyle was the problem," said Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.), who told POLITICO that Azar’s comments left her deeply concerned about the administration’s priorities in fighting the pandemic. "Their theory of the case is that they are not becoming infected in the meat processing plant, they're becoming infected because of the way they live in their home." Azar's remarks came during a discussion with Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on rural health — a conversation that was largely dominated by worries about the state of rural hospitals. But the discussion veered onto the subject of meatpacking plant conditions after Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) voiced concerns about plant closures and asked about the availability of coronavirus testing for the facilities. Azar emphasized the need to keep the plants open, according to the three people on the call. He also theorized that workers were largely not becoming infected at the meatpacking plants, and were instead contracting the coronavirus from their communities. Azar noted in particular that many meatpacking workers live in congregate housing, allowing that more testing at facilities would help but that the bigger issue was employees' home environments. One possible solution was to send more law enforcement to those communities to better enforce social distancing rules, he added, according to two of the lawmakers on the call.
Trump Is (Once Again) Blaming Obama for Not Developing a Test for a Virus That Didn’t Exist Yet – We are still asking the president questions about the coronavirus response as if he did not recently suggest medical professionals try injecting people with household disinfectant products in order to clean the lungs. What's good for your countertop is good for your internal organs. (This was not "sarcastic," as the president suggested, and anyway, if it was, that would just be a different kind of weird.) He does not read his briefings. He rarely attends the meetings of his Task Force, which may or may not be disbanded soon anyway. And yet we'll keep asking him questions as if he knows what's happening, or really cares, and he's not just trying to thrash his way through another news cycle. The President of the United States visited an Arizona plant that's manufacturing masks on Tuesday, where, among other activities, he did the thing where he pretends to be a Serious Man Listening to What You're Saying while talking and breathing all over a container of masks while not wearing a mask himself. (To do so would be Weak, and our president is Strong.) Or maybe Donald Trump really was listening intently and absorbing what the guy was saying when he explained how the mask blocks "particulates." I suppose we'll never know. Meanwhile, someone blasted "Live and Let Die" on the speakers. Among other things, Trump trotted out one of his new favorite lies, that he somehow inherited "broken tests" from the Obama administration. The novel coronavirus we're all talking about is new—hence the "novel." It did not exist when Barack Obama was president. It would not have been possible to develop a test. He used to make vague suggestions that Obama failed to develop testing capacity on the scale we now need, which makes a little more sense, but his criticism of Obama's response to H1N1 and other outbreaks now looks patently ridiculous. Meanwhile, Obama developed a pandemic response team within the White House to lead exactly this kind of effort, an office that Trump's national security council eliminated. Also, the Obama administration created a pandemic response playbook, which Trump's people completely ignored.The "broken tests" that were a problem in reality were developed in 2020 by the Centers for Disease Control under President Donald J. Trump, after the administration rejected tests developed by German scientists and approved by the World Health Organization in favor of developing their own. Trump could even try to pass the buck on this one, saying it's on the CDC, but he seems to be banking on the idea his followers will like it better if he blames Obama. He's also banking on people like Muir not challenging him on the basic impossibility of the "Obama's broken tests" claim, even though, as CNN's Daniel Dale pointed out, he makes it all the time. This is starting to rival his constant lie that he passed "Veteran's Choice"—which he also mentioned Tuesday—and which was actually signed by Obama.
Eleven Secret Service agents test positive for COVID-19: report - Newly unveiled documents suggest nearly a dozen U.S. Secret Service members have tested positive for COVID-19, Yahoo News reports. According to documents from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that were obtained by Yahoo News, there were 11 active cases at the agency as of Thursday. On top of those currently infected, another 23 Secret Service members have reportedly recovered from coronavirus. Another 60 employees are allegedly self-quarantining. It's not clear if any have recently been working at the White House or have had any contact with President Trump or Vice President Pence. “To protect the privacy of our employee’s health information and for operational security, the Secret Service is not releasing how many of its employees have tested positive for COVID-19, nor how many of its employees were, or currently are, quarantined,” Justine Whelan, a Secret Service spokeswoman, told Yahoo News when asked about the documents. The Secret Service did not immediately return The Hill's request for comment. News of coronavirus spreading among Secret Service members comes amid reports this week that multiple White House officials have tested positive for COVID-19.
Pence’s Press Secretary Tested Positive for Virus, Trump Says - Mike Pence’s press secretary, Katie Miller, tested positive for coronavirus on Friday, President Donald Trump said, delaying the vice president’s departure for a trip to Iowa.She is the second person working at the executive residence to test positive for the virus this week.The White House did not officially announce Miller’s positive test and she hadn’t been identified as the infected aide until a meeting between Trump and House Republicans. In answer to a question from a reporter about the infected aide, Trump said that Pence’s “press person,” whom he identified as “Katie,” had tested positive. “I don’t know much about it,” Trump said. “She’s a wonderful young woman.” She is the only member of Pence’s press staff named Katie. On Friday night, Miller tweeted: “I’m doing well and look forward to getting back to work for the American people.” Pence was delayed for more than an hour Friday morning amid concern over the test result. Six staffers who had contact with Miller left Pence’s plane, according to a senior administration official. All of them were subsequently tested and were negative, the official said. Miller was not aboard.
Katie Miller, Pence spokeswoman, tests positive for coronavirus - Katie Miller, a spokesperson for Vice President Mike Pence, has tested positive for coronavirus, according to two people with knowledge of Miller's diagnosis. Miller's positive diagnosis for Covid-19 puts the potential threat of the infection squarely into the president’s inner circle. Miller serves as the vice president’s top spokesperson, traveling with him frequently and attending meetings by his side. She is also married to another top White House aide and senior adviser, Stephen Miller, who writes the majority of Trump’s speeches and spends copious amounts of time around the president, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. Katie Miller’s positive diagnosis raises the risk that, through both her and her husband’s daily work, a large swath of the West Wing’s senior aides may also have been exposed to the novel coronavirus. "She's a wonderful young woman, Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time," President Donald Trump said on Friday during a meeting with congressional Republicans at the White House. "And then all of the sudden today she tested positive. She hasn't come into contact with me. She's spent some time with the vice president." Trump comments on Pence staffer who tested positive for coronavirus SharePlay Video "This is why the whole concept of tests aren't necessarily great," the president continued. "The tests are perfect, but something can happen between a test where it's good and then something happens and all of the sudden. She was tested very recently and tested negative, and then today I guess for some reason she tested positive. So Mike knows about it and Mike has done what he has to do. I think he is on an airplane, going to some far away place, but you'll be able to ask him later on. But they've taken all of the necessary precautions. I understand Mike has been tested, vice president, and he tested negative."
Positive coronavirus cases shake White House - The coronavirus is hitting close to home at the White House, where two staffers with access to President Trump and Vice President Pence have tested positive in the last two days. One of the president’s personal valets tested positive Thursday after exhibiting symptoms of coronavirus Wednesday. The president said he did not have regular “personal contact” with the military member, but he was reportedly agitated by news that someone close to him had tested positive. Concerns about the virus’s presence in the White House grew Friday when a Pence staffer tested positive. Trump later appeared to confirm the infected individual was Katie Miller, the vice president’s press secretary and the wife of senior White House adviser Stephen Miller. Miller’s positive test prompted the vice president to delay his takeoff for a trip to Iowa. Six staffers who may have had contact with her deplaned, and all six later tested negative for the virus. The positive tests reflect the dangers of the virus spreading inside the White House complex, and it further called into question what measures are being taken to try and limit the exposure of the top two elected officials in American government. “It can happen anywhere. It’s a very elusive enemy. A vicious enemy,” Trump said of the virus during a meeting with GOP lawmakers. “And I think, more importantly than anything with this one, it’s probably the most contagious enemy that anybody has seen.” The president’s own comments highlighted the unique threat the virus poses. The staffer in Pence's office who tested positive on Friday had tested negative on Thursday. Trump, who has faced criticism for being slow to roll out tests, argued that testing can be an imperfect safeguard given someone can contract the virus between tests. Experts have repeatedly remarked on how highly transmissible the coronavirus is, a particularly dangerous fact given the close quarters of the West Wing. Trump and Pence were in meetings together with the governors of Iowa and Texas each of the last two days, and Pence has led task force meetings this week with the administration's top health officials. But if Trump was nervous about the virus spreading within the White House, he did not make it known publicly.
White House Staff, Trump Aides Test Positive for Coronavirus - As of Friday evening, two White House staff members tested positive for coronavirus, as well as first daughter Ivanka Trump’s personal assistant and 11 Secret Service employees. President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that he and Vice President Mike Pence would now be tested daily for the novel coronavirus, in the wake of someone at the White House contracting the contagious respiratory illness. Trump said he was tested both Wednesday and Thursday for the virus and both times were negative. Trump, Pence and senior aides had been tested weekly, CNN reported — part of a larger set of protocols designed to prevent either leader from contracting the virus, even as it has spread to other government officials around the world. Trump and others in the White House have come into repeated contact with officials from other countries who later tested positive for the virus. Below are all the staff members who have tested positive for the coronavirus so far: Katie Miller, Press Secretary to VP Mike Pence Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary, Katie Miller, has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, Trump confirmed on Friday. "She's a wonderful young woman, Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time and then all of a sudden today she tested positive," the president said during a meeting at the White House. Miller, who is married to Trump senior advisor Stephen Miller, has not come into contact with Trump himself, he said, but has been close to Pence.
Trump's White House rattled after positive coronavirus tests and officials send mixed message on how to respond - WaPo - The White House on Saturday scrambled to deal with the fallout from two aides testing positive for the coronavirus, as officials who were potentially exposed responded differently, with some senior members of the pandemic task force self-quarantining while others planned to continue to go to work. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield, both task force members, said they are self-quarantining or teleworking for two weeks after exposure to a coronavirus case at the White House. But several administration officials said White House staffers were encouraged to come into the office by their supervisors, and that aides who travel with President Trump and Vice President Pence would not stay out for 14 days, the recommended time frame to quarantine once exposed to the virus. The conflicting ways in which officials and aides are responding after two staff members were diagnosed with the coronavirus this week — Pence spokeswoman Katie Miller and a military valet to the president — continued to raise questions about how the White House is responding to the challenge of maintaining a safe work environment for Trump, Pence and their staff. The White House press office declined to comment Saturday on whether employees beyond Miller and the military aide have been told to self-quarantine. “The president’s physician and White House operations continue to work closely to ensure every precaution is taken to keep the president, first family and the entire White House complex safe and healthy at all times,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said. “In addition to social distancing, daily temperature checks and symptom histories, hand sanitizer, and regular deep cleaning of all work spaces, every staff member in proximity to the president and vice president is being tested daily for covid-19 as well as any guests.” But the nervousness and concern among White House staffers became more palpable on Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the tensions. Now that Redfield and Hahn are staying away, some officials said they don’t know if they should keep going to work at the White House. Staffers who had potentially been in contact with Miller were still getting calls on Saturday from officials trying to gauge their exposure to the virus, according to one person who received a call. All White House staffers received a memo from the White House management office on Friday, which encouraged employees to “practice maximum telework” and to “work remotely if at all possible.” The White House will receive “heightened levels of daily cleaning,” according to the memo. It also told employees they must quarantine for 14 days if they leave the Washington region and must report all of their travel. The memo did not suggest that employees wear masks, as the CDC has suggested for all Americans in public spaces.
Test, trace, isolate: Governments need to do these three things before reopening economies, expert warns - Governments need to implement three things to break Covid-19's "chains of transmission" before reopening their economies, a global health expert and physician told CNBC. Peter Drobac, director of the Skoll Centre for Social Entrepreneurship at Oxford University, warned on Tuesday that easing lockdowns without taking certain action would risk a second surge in coronavirus infections. Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe," Drobac — a physician who has also been an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School and co-founded the University of Global Health Equity in Rwanda — suggested three steps governments could take to minimize that risk. "The way to interrupt (a second surge) is by testing, contact tracing and then being able to isolate and quarantine those who are infected and exposed to break those chains of transmission," he said. "If you don't have that infrastructure in place, you're taking a really significant risk."
GOP lawmaker calls for probe into VA referrals during pandemic - Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is calling for an investigation into the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) over its handling of referrals for veterans to receive care amid the coronavirus pandemic. In a letter to VA Inspector General Michael Missal on Tuesday, Biggs noted that a top VA official in March instructed leadership at regional care systems "to pause the use of access standards to authorize referrals to the Veterans Community Care Program (VCCP).” The Arizona Republican said that the guidance from the VA's deputy under secretary for Health for Operations and Management "lacked reference to the specific legal authority for the decision” and appeared to be unlawful under the VA Mission Act of 2018. “I respectfully request that the Inspector General investigate the VA's handling of referrals to the Veterans Community Care Program during the current coronavirus outbreak,” Biggs wrote. The GOP lawmaker has asked the watchdog to provide answers on whether the VA limited or denied referrals to the VCCP even when individuals met the eligibility requirements and whether veterans can request a non-clinical appeal. He also inquired on what legal authority the VA is using to deny or delay care to veterans; who is tasked with making the decisions on whether to delay or deny care; and whether “geographic differences in the spread of the coronavirus [have been] taken into consideration.” Biggs questioned whether “authorizations to outside care [have] been denied because of the lack of willing community providers to deliver care, or simply because the VA refused to authorize care”; what percentage of referrals for outside care were unfilled and whether the guidance was still in effect; what process the agency is following to ensure eligible veterans waiting for access for care are receiving “appropriate follow up and care options”; and whether there is a review process for those denied care.
Judge orders Sanders, others to be reinstated on New York primary ballot — A federal judge issued a ruling Tuesday requiring New York to hold its presidential primary in June and restore Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and other former presidential contenders to the ballot. The ruling from Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York, an Obama appointee, said Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) decision to scrap his state’s primary violated the First and 14th Amendment rights of White House contenders who have since ended their campaigns. “The Court concludes that Plaintiffs and Plaintiff-Intervenors have shown a clear and substantial likelihood of success on the merits of their claim that the Democratic Commissioners’ April 27 Resolution removing Yang, Sanders, and eight other Democratic presidential candidates from the ballot deprived them of associational rights under the First and Fourteenth Amendments to the Constitution,” Torres ruled, referring to entrepreneur Andrew Yang, another former presidential candidate who filed the lawsuit against New York. Cuomo first announced in April that he was canceling New York’s presidential primary after Sanders dropped out of the race and essentially locked up Biden’s claim to the Democratic nomination. Still, Sanders had declared that he planned to remain on upcoming primary ballots to win more delegates, who can work to influence the party’s platform at this summer’s Democratic National Convention. “We shouldn’t have nonessential primaries. There is only one candidate who is running,” New York Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs said at the time. Cuomo’s decision was met with an outcry from progressives who said the move would block them from promoting their candidate and hinder efforts to bridge divides between centrists and liberals within the party that continue to play out from 2016.
Biden's edge evaporates as Trump seen as better suited for economy, coronavirus response, poll shows - (Reuters) - Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump in popular support has eroded in recent weeks as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee struggles for visibility with voters during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday. The opinion poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday found that 43% of registered voters said they would support Biden in the Nov. 3 presidential election, while 41% said they would back Trump. That makes the contest essentially a toss-up, as the results are within the poll’s credibility interval. Biden led by 6 percentage points in a similar poll last week and by 8 points in a poll that ran April 15 to 21. The former vice president has been forced to run his presidential campaign from his Delaware home in keeping with restrictions aimed at combating the virus, which has killed more than 70,000 people in the United States and put 30 million people out of work.
1996 Court Filing Corroborates Biden Accuser's Claim She Was Harassed -- A court declaration from 1996 corroborates former Biden staffer Tara Reade's claim that she was sexually harassed while working for him in 1993, according to the Sacramento Bee.The filing - made by Reade's ex-husband Theodore Dronen while contesting a restraining order she filed against him days after he filed for divorce - reveals Reade told him about "a problem she was having at work regarding sexual harassment, in U.S. Senator Joe Biden's office." It appears to be the only written record that has surfaced from the time that substantiates Reade shared her account in the years following the alleged incident, though a former neighbor came forward last week about similar conversations she said she had with Reade in 1995. ...In the filing dated March 25, 1996, Dronen testified that he met Reade in the spring of 1993 while the two worked for separate members of Congress in Washington, D.C. Dronen wrote that Reade told him she “eventually struck a deal with the chief of staff of the Senator’s office and left her position.” “It was obvious that this event had a very traumatic effect on (Reade), and that she is still sensitive and effected (sic) by it today,” Dronen wrote. -Sacramento Bee
Justice Dept dropping Flynn's criminal case -(AP) — The Justice Department on Thursday said it is dropping the criminal case against President Donald Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, abandoning a prosecution that became a rallying cry for the president and his supporters in attacking the FBI's Trump-Russia investigation. The move is a stunning reversal for one of the signature cases brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. It comes even though prosecutors for the past three years have maintained that Flynn lied to the FBI in a January 2017 interview about his conversations with the Russian ambassador. Flynn himself admitted as much, pleading guilty before asking to withdraw the plea, and became a key cooperator for Mueller the special counel investigated ties between Russia and the 2016 Trump campaign. In court documents being filed Thursday, the Justice Department said it is dropping the case “after a considered review of all the facts and circumstances of this case, including newly discovered and disclosed information.” The documents were obtained by The Associated Press. The JDepartment said it had concluded that Flynn’s interview by the FBI was “untethered to, and unjustified by, the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into Mr. Flynn” and that the interview was “conducted without any legitimate investigative basis.” The U.S. attorney reviewing the Flynn case, Jeff Jensen, recommended dropping the case to Attorney General William Barr last week and formalized the recommendation in a document this week. “Through the course of my review of General Flynn’s case, I concluded the proper and just course was to dismiss the case,” Jensen said in a statement. “I briefed Attorney General Barr on my findings, advised him on these conclusions, and he agreed.” The decision is certain to be embraced by Trump, who has relentlessly tweeted about the case and last week pronounced Flynn “exonerated,” and to energize supporters who have taken up the retired Army lieutenant general as a cause. But it will also add to Democratic complaints that Attorney General William Barr is excessively loyal to the president, and could be a distraction for a Justice Department that for months has sought to focus on crimes arising from the coronavirus.
Grenell Gives Schiff Ultimatum- 'Release Secret Russiagate Transcripts Or I Will' -- Acting Director of National Security Richard Grenell has given Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) an ultimatum; release 53 the transcripts from 53 secret interviews conducted by the House Intelligence Committee's Trump-Russia investigation, or Grenell will do it through the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, according to the Washington Examiner.In a letter to Schiff, Grenell noted that the transcripts of all 53 interviews - consisting of more than 6,000 pages, have been cleared for public release."All of the transcripts, with our required redactions, can be released to the public without any concerns of disclosing classified material," wrote Grenell in the May 4 letter. The Intel Committee did the first probe into Russia's 2016 campaign interference and allegations of Trump-Russia collusion. Even today, its findings make up most of what we know about the affair. As part of that investigation -- it was run by then-majority Republicans -- the committee interviewed some key witnesses in the Trump-Russia matter: Donald Trump Jr., Steve Bannon, Andrew McCabe, Sally Yates, Michael Cohen, Hope Hicks, and many more. -Washington ExaminerThe decision to make the transcripts public was reached in September 2018, when the House was still controlled by the GOP, with the caveat that they would need to be first checked by the Intelligence Community for classified information.Two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Intelligence Community had finished reviewing 43 of the transcripts, but that Schiff was sitting on them - and had prevented declassification of the remaining ten transcripts. In fact, Grenell reveals in his letter that Schiff has been sitting on the 43 transcripts since June 2019. With the remaining 10 cleared, Grenell wrote:"I urge you to honor your previous public statements, and your committee's unanimous vote on this matter, to release all 53 cleared transcripts to Members of Congress and the American public as soon as possible," adding "I am also willing to release the transcripts directly from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, as to ensure we comply with the unanimous and bipartisan vote to release the transcripts."
New Jersey 'Bridgegate' scandal convictions tossed by U.S. Supreme Court - (Reuters) - Two aides to former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who were at the center of the “Bridgegate” scandal engaged in corruption and abuse of power but not criminal acts, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Thursday as it unanimously threw out their convictions and placed new limits on political corruption prosecutions.The justices sided with Bridget Anne Kelly and Bill Baroni, both convicted for their roles in a scheme to engineer traffic chaos in September 2013 on the world’s busiest bridge to punish a local Democratic mayor who refused to endorse Republican Christie’s gubernatorial re-election bid.“The evidence the jury heard no doubt shows wrongdoing - deception, corruption, abuse of power. But the federal fraud statutes at issue do not criminalize all such conduct,” liberal Justice Elena Kagan wrote on behalf of the court in the 9-0 ruling. The decision marked the latest instance in which the court hemmed in prosecutors in political corruption cases. The court in 2016 threw out Republican former Virginia Governor Robert McDonnell’s bribery conviction in another ruling that narrowed the types of conduct that can warrant prosecution.
Fight To Tax Amazon Resurges As Company Thrives During COVID-19 -- During the coronavirus pandemic, Seattle City Council members have launched another effort to tax Amazon and other large corporations.Amazon poured $1.5 million into Seattle City Council races in 2019 after it managed to repeal a head tax in June 2018 to raise around $20 million annually. It came up short in its attempt to oust City Council members who led that tax movementWhile the outbreak remains intense, Amazon’s dominance in the retail industry in the United States has grown.Amazon’s stock price soared over 25 percent from March to April. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ wealth increased by at least $24 billion. But the corporation has faced scrutiny from workers over its response to the pandemic, firing at least six workers who openly criticized Amazon for inadequate safety protections.“What we are talking about is taxing the largest two percent of corporations in the city. These are corporations that are the most stable,” said Kshama Sawant, one of the Seattle City Council members championing legislation to tax Amazon. “It’s corporations with massive cash reserves in contrast to households with no income because the vast majority live paycheck to paycheck.”Under the proposal, Amazon would face a 1.3 percent payroll tax, which Sawant equates to less than a one percent tax overall.City Council members seek to raise $500 million annually, including $200 million in coronavirus cash assistance immediately, with the rest of the funds used to support affordable housing units and “Green New Deal” infrastructure.“We have to pinpoint these numbers because it exposes the lies of big business when they cry foul on this tax. Oh, the sky is going to fall if you tax us. Really? It is less than a one percent tax rate. Don’t tell me you are so fragile you won’t survive when a household that makes $25,000 per year is taxed at a staggering 17 percent tax rate,” added Sawant.
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Fossil Fuel Industry Get Bailed Out Under Fed’s “Main Street” Lending Program - Pam Martens -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have apparently never walked down a Main Street in America. We make that statement because there is a huge disconnect between what’s really located on a typical Main Street and what’s in the bailout program they’ve designed and are calling the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP).Americans need to sit up and pay attention to what’s going on here because the U.S. Treasury has committed $75 billion of taxpayers’ money to support this program under the illusion that it’s going to mom and pop operations on a typical Main Street in America. That initial $75 billion will be levered up to $750 billion under the Fed’s ability to create money out of thin air, with taxpayers eating the first $75 billion of losses. Once the loans are originated by a lender, they will then be bought up by a Fed-created Special Purpose Vehicle, thus removing bad loans from the balance sheets of banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and the like. The banks will only have to retain 5 percent of the exposure.We’ve walked down plenty of Main Streets in America: in West Virginia, downstate and upstate New York, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Florida and in ski towns from coast to coast. We’ve seen plenty of boutique gift shops, family-owned restaurants and ice cream parlors, hair and nail salons, sole-proprietor bake shops, and locally-owned breweries. What we’ve never seen on any of these streets is a shop or restaurant with “15,000 employees or up to $5 billion in annual revenue” or one that needed to refinance $200 million in debt. And yet, that describes businesses that will be able to apply for loans under the Fed’s “Main Street” Expanded Lending Program that has been approved by both Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chair Powell. You have to ask yourself this: if this was really about helping Main Street, why wouldn’t that $750 billion have simply been added to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) which is restricted to businesses with 500 or fewer employees – the Small Business Administration’s definition of a small business? The second round of funding to that program by Congress is likely to run out sometime this week. Just under half of all American workers are employed by a small business that has less than 500 workers according to the most recent government data.The Fed changed the terms of its “Main Street” Lending Program on April 30 in ways that make clear that it’s not at all about rescuing small businesses on Main Street that have been shuttered as a result of mandated government action during the COVID-19 outbreak but is actually all about bailing out the failing debt of the fossil fuel industry and the big banks on Wall Street that hold that debt
Regulators modify liquidity coverage ratio requirements— Bank regulators issued a rule Tuesday modifying the liquidity coverage ratio to better enable banks to participate in two of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities and “support the flow of credit to households and businesses.” The rule is aimed at banks using the Fed’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, part of the central bank's response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.“The interim final rule facilitates participation in these facilities by neutralizing the LCR impact associated with the non-recourse funding provided by these facilities,” the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Reserve said in a statement. “The rule does not otherwise alter the LCR or its calibration.” The interim rule will go into effect 30 days after being published in the Federal Register. The LCR is meant to ensure a bank has enough high-quality liquid assets to cover 30 days of net cash outflows. Without the interim rule, regulators wrote, changes in cash flow tied to either the PPP or MMF lending facilities could “potentially result in an inconsistent, unpredictable, and more volatile calculation of LCR requirements across covered companies.” Given how inflow and outflow rates are typically calculated for the LCR, the agencies said sudden surges in cash from the Fed's lending facilities “could unnecessarily contribute to volatility in LCRs.”
BankThink: PPP is a compliance minefield for banks -The Paycheck Protection Program is barely a month old, and big banks already are finding that it is a potential danger zone.The rescue program Congress enacted in response to the coronavirus pandemic to funnel government-backed loans to small businesses has been marred by complaints of overwhelmed call centers, preferential treatment for certain customers, missing paperwork and other alleged mistakes. A third round of funding likely promises more headaches.To be sure, the PPP places banks in a unique position to support small businesses and rebuild their communities. But past crisis-relief efforts suggest the PPP is also likely to create a maze of reputational and compliance hurdles that could damage the public’s trust in banks for years to come.It might be tempting for some banks to decline to participate in the PPP altogether — but that would invite even more criticism for failing to come to America’s aid in a time of great need. In short, banks are in a bind.Warning bells have been ringing from day one. Authorities deserve praise for getting the program launched so quickly. But amid that scramble, the program’s final guidance wasn’t released until less than 12 hours before PPP went live, giving banks minimal time to prepare. And the guidance leaves room for interpretation as well as confusion. Most banks have developed their own practices for how PPP loan applications are handled. The Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department have issued seven interim final rules about the program in its first month, many of which required lenders to make changes to their processes.Meanwhile, business owners claim they are getting repeated requests from banks for the same information to support their applications. Thousands of bank employees have been diverted to process PPP applications, creating operational risks.The PPP lending period is so far set to expire June 30, and funds might run out well before then. But the consequences of mistakes made now could be felt for years to come.Consider what happened with the Troubled Asset Relief Program, launched in 2008 to help rescue the financial system during the Great Recession. A special inspector general for the TARP (Sigtarp) was appointed to make sure the funds were being used according to the program’s design, emphasizing fair and unbiased processes. More than a decade later, the Sigtarp still issues semiannual reports. So far, it has launched criminal investigations leading to numerous convictions of bankers for outright fraud and fines from the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission for mistakes made in the fog of war. The coronavirus relief bill actually has three oversight bodies. Unlike Sigtarp, these oversight bodies will wind down in five years’ time. There are three areas of concerns in PPP that the finance industry will face: loan applications, loan forgiveness and loan guarantees…
Bankers fear massive borrower fraud in PPP - Early last month, a Rhode Island bank received an application for a $144,050 loan under the Paycheck Protection Program, the massive federal effort to assist small businesses hurt by the coronavirus crisis.The application purported to be on behalf of the owners of Remington House, a restaurant located on Post Road in Warwick, R.I. It listed 18 employees and an average monthly payroll of $46,000.But when a bank official drove past the building, there were indications that the restaurant had been shut down before the pandemic. Dumpsters were located on the property. Posted on the door and windows were notices ordering the stoppage of work. The once-popular restaurant had been closed since November 2018, according to federal prosecutors, who this week charged two men with conspiracy to commit bank fraud.The case is the first criminal fraud prosecution in connection with the massive paycheck program. Industry officials warn that it will not be the last — not by a long shot. In fact, individuals who are working with banks to combat misconduct in the $660 billion program — including former California banking commissioner Walter Mix — estimate that fraud rates could be as high as 10% to 12%. Those estimates, which are based on initial reviews of loan files at dozens of banks, are roughly consistent with what has happened following other disasters. In the aftermath of hurricanes Rita and Katrina, a government audit found that around 16% of applicants for federal disaster assistance used invalid information. If 10% of the PPP’s funding went to fraudsters, taxpayers would be defrauded to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.“History shows that when government relief programs are put together quickly in response to a disaster,” said Derek Cohen, a former federal prosecutor who now represents white-collar defendants, “fraud is fairly rampant.”
Latest worry for PPP lenders: Liability for loans they didn't make - Spurred by complaints that the Paycheck Protection Program's initial phase failed to channel enough loans to small businesses, lenders have hustled to get money into the hands of more borrowers in the effort's second iteration.Lenders are on pace to make more than 4 million loans during PPP's second installment, which would more than double the numbers from the program's initial run, based on May 1 data from the Small Business Administration. The average loan size has fallen by 60%, to $80,000.While those results are dramatic, there are concerns that lenders will need to brace for fair-lending litigation and regulatory scrutiny for the loans they do not make. And there is potential reputational risk as small businesses that received funds navigate the murky process for loan forgiveness. Banking lawyers are already having conversations with nervous clients about the looming issue. "There's a significant possibility banks could face private lawsuits or regulatory action,” said Scott Pearson, a regulatory compliance attorney at Manatt in Los Angeles. Regulators have already dropped hints that they plan to examine PPP lending closely. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a bulletin on April 27 urging banks to “prudently document their implementation and lending decisions.” The agency also advised lenders to “identify and track the PPP loans made to small-business borrowers that have annual revenues of $1 million or less and are located in low- to moderate-income areas.” The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau published a blog post the same day, co-written by Fair Lending Director Patrice Alexander Ficklin, instructing small-business owners “who believe they were discriminated against based on race, sex, or other protected category” on how to file complaints online. For many if not most lenders, experiencing any adverse impacts from PPP participation would be a hard pill to swallow. Congress devised the program, part of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package, to funnel money to small businesses and their employees as quickly as possible.Congress authorized $349 billion for the program. Lenders jumped in with both feet, exhausting the allocation in 13 days. Despite persistent problems accessing the SBA’s platform, nearly 5,000 lenders — often working around the clock — secured approval for nearly 1.7 million loans during the initial run that ended on April 16. Banks acted "as intended by the legislation and demanded by" the Treasury Department, Pearson said. “In the early stages of the program, [lenders] said they did not have enough guidance. They were told to stop complaining and make these loans. Banks did that.”The SBA and Treasury pushed lenders to make PPP loans as rapidly as possible, industry observers said.
Big banks pull ahead in small-business aid after stumbles - The largest U.S. banks stepped up lending to dominate the government's small-business rescue program after playing an undersized role in its early days. Banks with assets of $10 billion or more processed 68% of Paycheck Protection Program loans last week, data released on Sunday show, compared with about 40% during the program's first round from April 3 to April 16. That translates to about $24 billion of PPP loans a day from the largest banks, more than double the daily pace set by that group in the first phase. The big banks took PPP lending share mostly from medium-sized ones with between $1 billion and $10 billion of assets, the data show. Those firms saw their share drop by more than half to about 16%. The smallest banks' share also declined, to 15% from about 20%. Figures from the first round were disclosed in an SBA statement April 17. Overall, big banks now account for about half the total lending. Bank of America Corp. on Monday identified itself as the top lender in the second round of funding, which means it got loan approvals for $21.3 billion in the week ending Friday. The bank had won approval for only about $4 billion of loans during the first round of the program.
Small firms still in dark on loan forgiveness as clock ticks - Small businesses that struggled to get loans from a government pandemic relief program still don’t know how much they may have to repay after the government missed a deadline to give specific guidance. The U.S. Small Business Administration was supposed to clarify by April 26 how loans it approved as part of the Trump administration’s multitrillion-dollar coronavirus stimulus package can be spent and still qualify to become grants. Companies and lenders say they need more guidance on how to calculate the amount that’s eligible for forgiveness and what documentation is required to support the claims. That could leave small firms on the hook to repay loan proceeds they thought would be a grant. As a result, some business owners are holding onto the loans and may even return them, according to interviews with small business groups, lenders and borrowers. The Paycheck Protection Program was designed as a lifeline for small firms, many of which were shuttered due to stay-at-home orders, have no revenue coming in, and may be forced to close for good. Time is short, since the funds must be spent within eight weeks after they’re received to qualify for forgiveness. Every day of uncertainty means making decisions is more difficult, the groups and business owners said. “As soon as they got the money, they’re calling and saying, ‘OK, how do I spend this to make sure I get this forgiven, because I don’t want to mess this up,’” said Kimberly Rayer, a partner at Starfield & Smith in Pennsylvania, who advises lenders on SBA loan programs. “Borrowers are concerned, they would like to make sure that they don’t have to pay this money back.” The uncertainty about how loans will be forgiven is just the latest stumbling block in the SBA’s chaotic effort to funnel about $670 billion to small firms across the country to counter the devastating effects of Covid-19 on their operations. The initiative was intended to keep them afloat and keep employees on payrolls to be ready to reopen. The initial round of $349 billion in funding ran out on April 16 in just 13 days after 1.66 million firms were approved for loans. The program relaunched April 27 with an additional $320 billion, and the SBA and Treasury Department reported on Sunday that 2.2 million loans totaling $175.7 billion from more than 5,400 lenders have been processed, with an average loan size of $79,000, much lower than the $206,000 average in the first round. The totals, through May 1, mean less than half the additional funding remains available.
Retail Bankruptcies, Bailouts Put Spotlight on Private Equity - Yves Smith -As readers of this site know well, retailers, particularly department stores, were in distress even before coronavirus hit, and private equity was a big, and arguably dominant, reason why. Contrary to the mythology that some captured business journalists would like to sell you, many of the companies fell victim to private equity leverage and fee extraction far more than competition from e-commerce. The list of casualties is long: Toys’R’Us. Mattress Firm. Payless Cashways. Sports Authority. Barneys. Fairway. Now even some of the walking wounded like Neiman Marcus have filed for bankruptcy. Macys has been on the death watch for a while. Now many companies are arm-wrestling with landlords for rent holidays. And for many if not most retailers, the rent burden is the direct result of the tender ministrations of private equity.To add to the fun, the bagholders, um, buyers of the real estate formerly owned by retailers but routinely sold at high prices due to inflated leases devised by the private equity overlords, are now looking at a world of hurt. Even though being an owner or investor of commercial real estate in the US is suddenly an unattractive proposition, large footprint retail space, whether in malls, urban centers, or suburbs now looks like an albatross.The new wrinkle, which we’ll discuss shortly, is that a major real estate investor, Brookfield Properties, has announced that it is launching a $5 billion retail bailout fund. While struggling stores are desperate for any lifeline, one has to wonder if Brookfield, like too many investors, is anticipating a relatively quick recovery. While, as we’ll see below, there’s also an element of self-interest in its opportunism, this looks an awful lot like Merrill’s “catch a falling safe” January 2007 acquisition of subprime originator First Franklin.A 2019 study by the Center for Popular Democracy found that 10 of the 14 large retail bankruptcies since 2012 occurred under private equity ownership. This report also found that private equity purchases of retailers resulted in 1.3 million lost jobs. Analysts of these bankruptcies point out how high debt service levels denied these retailers the ability to invest in e-commerce strategies. Even worse in case like Fairway, the new private equity overlords took niche operators that were successful in their home bases and embarked on bone-headed brick-and-mortar expansion plans.
Can SBA deny loans to payday lenders? Judge asks for its rules -- A U.S. judge is expected to rule soon on whether payday lenders can tap Paycheck Protection Program loans disbursed by the Small Business Administration under the $2.2 trillion pandemic rescue bill. Payday Loan LLC, which engages in lending and check cashing in 22 stores in California, sued the SBA on April 25 after its request for a $644,000 forgivable loan was denied. The application was rejected on the grounds that PPP funds can’t be distributed to companies that profit mostly from making loans. Bloomberg U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson on Sunday asked the SBA to file a copy of its standard operating procedures before she can rule on the agency’s motion to dismiss the case. Payday Loan has asked her to deny the request and instead rule that the SBA cannot block the industry’s PPP loans. Payday Loan employs more than 80 people and “is not immune from the financial hardships that COVID-19 has inflicted on the nation,” the company said in the complaint, filed in federal court in Washington. The SBA said in an April 27 filing responding to the lawsuit that the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act directs the agency to distribute PPP money based on its existing internal rules, which it says have long prohibited loans to payday lenders. “Given that the funds underlying SBA-backed loans are limited, the public interest weighs in favor of adherence to the CARES Act’s terms, rather than diverting funds to Payday from the small-business firms that the PPP is intended to aid,” the SBA said in the filing.
Fed Is Propping Up Companies It Had Warned Banks Not to Touch - For years, the Federal Reserve warned that too many highly risky companies were engaging in fuzzy accounting that bumped up their earnings -- making it easier for them to obtain loans. The practice was driving up corporate debt to excessive and worrisome levels, regulators chastised. But now, in its latest effort to keep credit flowing, the Fed has done a remarkable about-face. It essentially endorsed the dubious practice with a program that may serve to bail out some of America’s most leveraged companies. The Fed move “rewards the worst abusers,” said Mark Carey, a former Fed official and co-president of GARP Risk Institute, the research arm of an association of risk managers. “People will see this as a backstop and in the future they will be encouraged to take on really high leverage.” The reversal came in the Fed’s announcement last week to expand its Main Street Lending Program to allow more small and medium-sized businesses to qualify for as much as $600 billion in loans. That was widely applauded. But less noticed was a provision that allows companies that had used the widely-abused accounting techniques in the past to seek the loans. At issue is the trend among many leveraged companies to “adjust” a key measure of their results -- known as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda -- to make them appear more creditworthy. After intense lobbying by business groups, the Fed has now said those adjusted earnings can be used for the Main Street lending program, rather than those under generally accepted accounting standards. The ability of companies to goose projections, like counting expected savings from a cost-cutting program, is generally legal and an accepted practice. But it can distort the lending process and raises questions about their ability to repay loans. That’s especially crucial now. Unlike the government’s Paycheck Protection Program to help small businesses, the Main Street loans are required to be paid back. The Fed included some guardrails in the program to limit losses. The banks that originate the loans are to have skin-in-the-game by holding between 5% to 15% of the loan amount. And loans for part of the facility must have ratings that could exclude the most aggressive debt. Carey and others also note that the Fed’s motivation -- to lend support to even more businesses and to prevent widespread waves of bankruptcy from further hobbling the economy -- is understandable. But they also worry about the message it’s sending to companies and lenders, that the central bank will bail them out regardless of how egregious their actions, a concept known as moral hazard.
High Yield Issuance Window Slams Shut As United Pulls 11%-Yielding Bond - Just minutes after CNBC was discussing how fantastic the Fed put on High-Yield Bonds has been in setting a floor under the capital structure and enabling the biggest surge in stocks off the COVID-19 contagion lows (despite The Fed not having yet set one foot in the corporate bond space), an awkward headline hit that may prove to be monumental by Monday morning. After early discussions in the low 9%-yield range, United Airlines was reportedly forced to increase the juice to 11% late this afternoon in order to encourage takers for its $2.25 billion bond offering.Bloomberg reported that the changes come after the three and five-year bonds had only received about $1.5 billion of orders as of Thursday morning, the people added.But then it got worse, as potential buyers continued to push for investor-friendly changes.Bloomberg points out that the notes were secured on a first priority basis by a pool of 360 aircraft owned by United, leaving some investors concerned that these are not valuable enough to balance out the risk of investing in an airline whose business has been hit as governments across the globe have halted travel to help stem the spread of Covid-19. The aircraft are close to retirement with a weighted average age of 19 years, CreditSights analyst Roger King wrote in a note published Wednesday. That means many of the planes will not be flying when the five-year bond matures, he wrote. Despite investors' apparent eagerness to buy any and junk debt issue this week - because they know there's the greater fool in The Eccles Building coming in right behind them - United Airlines tonight abandoned its bond offering according to its latest filing.
Libor goes from dying to in demand with Fed pushing fast loans - Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic have spent the better part of three years trying to kill the London interbank offered rate. Now, they're looking to it once again to underpin hundreds of billions of dollars in loans as they seek to rescue their economies. U.S. policymakers last week changed tack and turned to Libor as the benchmark for their $600 billion Main Street Lending Program, which will buy debt from potentially hundreds of companies. The move came a day after U.K. officials granted banks a six-month extension to keep issuing loans tied to the beleaguered reference rate, which is supposed to be phased out by the end of 2021. The timetable to do away with the benchmark linked to trillions of dollars of financial assets appears increasingly at risk as central bankers lean on Libor to help expedite their massive stimulus efforts. As they lend legitimacy to the much-maligned rate, some market watchers say it's highlighting the shortcomings of replacements, while others note it could ultimately lead to a more difficult transition down the road. "The crisis does make it tougher and it will put a lot more time pressure on meeting the deadline," said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University who has written extensively on Libor. He called the Fed's decision, while necessary, "very unfortunate" and a missed opportunity to pivot away from the benchmark, adding that it's a sign that U.S. lenders "were not getting ready" for the transition. SOFR troubles For their part, the banks planning to participate in the facility argue that rapidly implementing new systems to issue loans based on the Fed's preferred replacement — the Secured Overnight Financing Rate — would have diverted resources from other challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The switch from SOFR to Libor was a "practical consideration, because these programs are designed to quickly disperse funds in unprecedented environments to those in need," Tom Wipf, chairman of the Fed-backed Alternative Reference Rates Committee overseeing the Libor transition in the U.S., said in a statement last week. Yet some say the reversal shines a light on critical deficiencies in SOFR. These include the lack of a term structure, absence of a credit component and susceptibility to periodic volatility in the market for repurchase agreements that determine the benchmark's setting. "SOFR alone would be a terrible lending index," said John Coleman, senior managing director of the fixed-income group at R.J. O'Brien & Associates in Chicago. "Libor is terrible because it acts in a dysfunctional way because nothing trades in it. What used to be good isn't really working and what's supposed to be replacing it isn't really working." Three-month Libor slid to 0.474% Tuesday, the lowest since 2015, while SOFR last set at 0.05%. The Fed's decision to rely on Libor follows a similar move in the U.K., where policy makers are leaning on the rate to help pump emergency funds to businesses ravaged by the outbreak. Banks can now issue Libor-linked loans through the end of March 2021 after the Financial Conduct Authority pushed back the drop-dead date from the end of September. "People are significantly distracted with things like getting their heads around emergency funding schemes to keep businesses afloat," said Paul Mullen, a partner at the law firm Hogan Lovells in London. That's "diverting resources away from thinking about Libor transition."
Coronavirus prompts renewed calls for postal banking, faster payments— Federal efforts to provide stimulus checks to Americans hit by the coronavirus' economic fallout have revived calls for better government-backed financial delivery systems. Millions of households haven't received their $1,200 payments nearly a month and a half after Congress authorized them. That has led some progressives and other observers to demand reforms to improve underbanked consumers' access to the financial system, such as authorizing the U.S. Postal Service to provide financial services or creating a Federal Reserve-backed digital wallet. Some have even lamented the slow pace of the Fed's implementation of a real-time payments network. "It’s a real shame that even when Congress kind of basically agrees about the money that we need to deploy, our systems are so broken that we can’t even get it to the people for whom it’s intended in an expedient way,” said Amanda Fischer, policy director at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth and a former Democratic congressional staffer. Over the weekend, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., tweeted, "Let’s put a bank in every post office," resurrecting a proposal long criticized by community bankers. Earlier, Gillibrand, who has sponsored postal banking legislation, released a statement criticizing the Trump administration's refusal to provide emergency funds to the Postal Service. “The Postal Service is in desperate need of reinforcement, and providing postal banking for the nearly 10 million American households who lack access to basic banking services is the first step," she said. Observers said the pandemic crisis may continue to fuel such proposals, especially as many American struggle to access their stimulus checks. The postal banking idea — supported for years by other members such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. — has been seen as a way to give the underserved another banking option. Defects in government delivery systems have also highlighted the pace of the Fed's implementation of FedNow, a real-time system expected to compete with the private sector's RTP network. FedNow isn't expected to be completed until 2023 or 2024. “It’s a debacle that it takes longer in 2020 to give everybody pandemic cash than it took in the 1960s to send a man to the moon and back,” said Aaron Klein, policy director at the Brookings Institution’s Center on Regulation and Markets. “Why is it that we are unable to get people money? It’s a combination of three things. One is how fast can you move money from Account A to Account B. Two, does the U.S. Treasury Department know people’s accounts? And three, what share of the people don’t have accounts?” Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, said calls by progressives for new, government-operated delivery models will only continue to grow.
Consumer loan applications dropped as coronavirus spread, CFPB says - Consumer credit inquiries for auto loans, revolving credit cards and mortgages dropped sharply in March as unemployment surged, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Friday.The CFPB report illustrated how the coronavirus pandemic is hampering consumer lending. Inquiries to the credit bureaus for auto loans fell 52% between the first and last weeks of March, revolving credit card inquiries dropped 40% and home loan inquiries dropped 27%.At the state level, the report found a correlation between the decline in credit inquiries for certain catetories and the rates of COVID-19 cases and unemployment insurance claims. The CFPB measured applications for credit based on the number of credit pulls, or “hard inquiries” that lenders perform when a consumer applies for credit. The drop in credit applications was more pronounced for consumers with higher credit scores, the report found. For auto loans, 49% fewer consumers with subprime credit scores below 500 sought credit in March, while consumers with super prime credit scores above 780 had a 67% drop. The differences were even larger for revolving credit cards, with a 34% drop in inquiries for subprime borrowers and a 59% drop for superprime borrowers. Inquiries for home loans fell 20% for subprime borrowers and 36% for super prime. Although all states saw a drop in credit inquiries, the report found a substantial variation by state. For auto loan inquiries, states in the Northeast and California, plus Michigan and Nevada, experienced the largest drops, while Mississippi, Kansas, Oregon and the Mountain states of Utah and Idaho experienced more modest declines.“The data indicate all types of inquiries dropped significantly and that consumers with higher credit scores have more flexibility in substituting away from applying for credit than consumers with lower credit scores,” the CFPB said in the 18-page report. “The observed drop in inquiries could be due to a drop in underlying credit demand, a drop in credit supply affecting inquiries either directly or indirectly by heightening consumers’ expectation of being turned down for credit, or a lack of opportunity for car and home sales to take place due to physical restrictions on movement and economic activity.”
Coronavirus deals blow to interchange income -- Stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus are disrupting consumer spending and crimping an important source of fee income for banks.At issue: Credit and debit card use has declined, causing a substantial decrease in interchange fees.Banks of all sizes are riding out an extended period of stagnant spending, as consumers limit purchases to essentials such as food. Bankers said during earnings calls that the shock, which began in late March, will likely last as long as the economy remains on partial lockdown. Americans are traveling less, and scrapping plans they had made earlier in the year, Jim Ryan, chairman and CEO of the $21 billion-asset Old National Bancorp in Evansville, Ind., said in an interview.Though “there will be pent-up demand” among consumers, “there will be some” lost interchange revenue, Ryan added. “I usually get a haircut every three weeks. I won’t make up for the one or two haircuts that I missed.” It is unclear how much interchange revenue banks have lost so far because most do not break that information out in their quarterly earnings reports. And the biggest hits will likely take place in the current quarter.Bank of America in Charlotte, N.C., disclosed in its first-quarter 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday that interchange income, taking into account rewards and partner payments, fell by 12% from a year earlier, to $792 million.Stay-at-home orders led to “large declines in debit and credit card spending” for travel and entertainment, Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan said during the $2.6 trillion-asset BofA’s earnings call. Year-over-year spending in those areas fell “to negative territory in April.”Andrew Cecere, chairman and CEO of U.S. Bancorp in Minneapolis, said during the $543 billion-asset company’s earnings call that the payments business, broadly, faces big challenges “in line with the drop in global economic activity.”Lost interchange revenue could deliver a big aggregate hit for banks.Global payments revenue totaled $2.3 trillion in 2018, with more than a third of that coming from interchange and other fees, according to the most recent data
State regulators question timing, legality of OCC licensing proposal— An association of state bank regulators delivered a broadside against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency this week, accusing the national bank regulator of rushing a proposal to “update” banking licensing requirements that they say is a legal overreach.John Ryan, CEO of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, said in a comment letter that the OCC was attempting to ram through changes in bank merger law that would violate state authority.“Our disappointment is only aggravated by the highly unusual process employed in issuing the proposal, by the questionable validity as to several aspects of the proposal, and by the general lack of clarity as to the intent and/or impact of many of the proposed reforms,” Ryan wrote in his letter to the OCC, dated May 4, the day the proposal’s comment period ended. The agency issued the proposal on March 5, amid early signs of the coronavirus hitting the U.S. Given the virus outbreak, Ryan said, the CSBS does “not understand how the OCC could conclude that this is an appropriate time to issue an over 60,000-word proposed rule containing over 2000 amendments to the OCC's licensing regulation."Ryan also accused the OCC of adopting “a truncated notice-and-comment process” by setting the comment deadline 60 days after the proposal was published on the agency’s website rather than 60 days after being published in the Federal Register. The latter often provides commenters additional time given the lag between the issuance of a proposal and it being published in the FR.A spokesperson for the OCC declined to comment, citing agency policy of not responding to individual comment letters in the rulemaking process. The spokesperson said the letter “will be considered in the development of the final rule.” The OCC's notice of proposed rulemaking would eliminate certain “outdated” rules that govern corporate transactions, such as mergers, acquisitions and other activities. The proposal also included changes that would allow national banks to invest in entities not supervised by the OCC, and tweak how bank examiners incorporate “adverse comments” related to the Community Reinvestment Act into the bank merger approval process.
Agencies urged to pause CRA reform as banks manage pandemic response— Regulators should slow efforts to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act as the coronavirus pandemic dominates the workload of bankers and the agencies, a cohort of stakeholders said this week. Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting has signaled his agency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are plowing ahead on their controversial CRA reform plans, despite concerns from multiple interest groups about aspects of their December proposal and the Federal Reserve's refusal to back the framework. But the pandemic crisis throws another wrench into banks' ability to implement an overhaul of the law, according to participants in a CRA webinar who represent community groups and the financial industry. “Even under normal circumstances, implementing a modernized CRA framework would be a really heavy lift for banks,” Krista Shonk, vice president of regulatory compliance policy at the American Bankers Association, said during the Zoom panel hosted by the Urban Institute on Wednesday. “Now that we're here during the pandemic, bankers are marshalling all their resources to help consumers and businesses help them to deal with a significant economic impact that we're seeing associated with our public health crisis.” Mark Willis, who formerly oversaw JPMorgan Chase's community development program, said that while the CRA has been in need of reform for several years, the current system continues to chug along and operate reasonably well, even in the grips of a pandemic. Otting has led a controversial campaign to modernize the CRA since he took office in 2018, and the coronavirus pandemic has not weakened his resolve. In early April, he told American Banker that the pandemic actually increased the urgency of his agency’s proposed reforms, and that "slowing the rulemaking would only delay relief and support that communities across the country need.""Modernization would bring valuable additional resources to communities across America that are currently underserved by the current regime," Otting said. "Further delay will prevent these additional resources from reaching those who need them most in this time of national emergency."
Black Knight: Nearly 4.1 Million Homeowners Now in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans, 7.7% of Mortgages - From Black Knight: Nearly 4.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans:
• As of May 7, nearly 4.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans, representing 7.7% of all active mortgages.
• Together, they account for $890 billion in unpaid principal and includes 6.4% of all GSE-backed loans and 11% of all FHA/VA loans.
• At today’s level, mortgage servicers need to advance a combined $4.5 billion/month to holders of government-backed mortgage securities on COVID-19-related forbearances. Another $2.1 billion in lost funds will be faced each month by those with portfolio-held or privately securitized mortgages (some 7.2% of these loans are in forbearance as well).
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March; Discussion of Forbearance Plans - Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to Black Knight, 3.39% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 3.65% in March 2019. Black Knight also reported that 0.42% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.51% a year ago. This gives a total of 3.81% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight: Inflow of New COVID-19 Forbearance Plans Declines Following 15th of April; Additional Surge Likely as May Payments Approach The rate at which American homeowners have been seeking mortgage forbearances began to slow from the middle of April forward, and Black Knight will monitor this trend to see if it continues.“After surging at the beginning of April and then rising again near the 15th – when most mortgages become past due and late fees are charged – the number of new forbearance requests has declined in recent weeks,” said Graboske. “While total forbearance volumes continue to mount, daily inflow has begun to taper off. Between 53,000 and 102,000 new plans have been put into place over each of the last nine days, and even the largest single-day volume was less than a quarter of what we saw at the start of April – and may see again next week. What remains an open question at this point is to what degree forbearance requests will look like at the beginning of May – when the next round of mortgage payments become due, and with nearly 30 million Americans newly unemployed in the last month. Once we have a sense for whether there is a similar spike in forbearance requests around the beginning of May, we’ll be in a much better position to more accurately forecast possible scenarios.“As it is, in an optimistic scenario in which daily forbearance volumes continue to decline by 10% per day, the number of forbearances could peak at approximately 4.5 million in the coming months. Should current forbearance volumes hold steady through mid-June, more than 8 million homeowners could enter into forbearance plans, representing 16% or more of all mortgages. If that adverse scenario holds true, servicers would be required to advance $4 billion in monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments on GSE mortgages alone. Even under the FHFA’s recent four-month limit on P&I advances, servicers would still be bound to make $16 billion in advance payments over that time span.” The month’s Mortgage Monitor report also looked at March prepayment activity, which surged to a near seven-year high. However, that was prior to the fallout from COVID-19 and the associated rise in unemployment and economic uncertainty. After rising in late March, 30-year interest rates fell back near record lows by mid-April. Rate lock data – a leading indicator of refinance and prepayment activity – suggests a steep decline in demand for refinancing. As of April 13, the average conventional 30-year note rate fell below 3.3% according to Black Knight’s Compass Analytics data – roughly equivalent to where it was in early March – but refinance-related rate locks saw little movement. In fact, refi locks were nearly 80% below their early-March peaks. Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the National Delinquency Rate. In what’s typically the strongest month of the year for mortgage performance, March delinquencies rose by 3.33% This the first March increase since the turn of the century – including the years of the Great Recession, and an early sign of COVID-19’s impact on the market The second graph shows the impact of COVID-19 on real estate showings:
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.54%" of Portfolio Volume - Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance." From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.54%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 6.99% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.54% as of April 26, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, a total of 3.80 million homeowners are now in forbearance plans. ...“The share of loans in forbearance increased once again in the last full week of April, but the pace of new requests slowed,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “With millions more Americans filing for unemployment over the week, the level of job market distress continues to worsen. That is why we expect that the share of loans in forbearance will continue to grow, particularly as new mortgage payments come due in May.”, “As states across the country begin to re-open their economies, a silver lining we are seeing is indications of increased activity in the housing market, including more purchase applications in some markets. We are hopeful that the housing market can eventually contribute to a broader rebound in economic activity, which would then begin to reverse the unprecedented job losses experienced during this crisis.” This graph shows the weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicer's portfolio volume. The requests peaked in the week of March 30th to April 5th, but might pick up again when May payments are due. The MBA notes: "Forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) dropped across all investor types for the third consecutive week relative to the prior week: from 1.14% to 0.63%."
Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 1, 2020. ... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 210 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ... “Mortgage application volume was unchanged last week, even as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined to 3.40 percent – a new record in MBA’s survey,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Despite lower rates, refinance applications dropped, as many lenders are offering higher rates for refinances than for purchase loans, and others are suspending the availability of cash-out refinance loans because of their inability to sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” Added Fratantoni, “Purchase volume increased for the third week in a row, led by strong growth in Arizona, Texas and California. Although purchase activity remains almost 19 percent below year-ago levels, this annualized deficit has decreased as more states reopen amidst the apparent, pent-up demand for homebuying.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.40 percent from 3.43 percent, with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.5% Year-over-year in March - The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports March Home Prices Increased by 4.5% Year Over Year: Home prices increased nationally by 4.5% from March 2019. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1.3% in March 2020. CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates annual price growth of 0.5% from March 2020 to March 2021, with a month-over-month increase of 0.6% between March and April 2020.Increased homes sales in January and February 2020 accounts for the sustained acceleration of home prices seen in the March HPI. CoreLogic continues to monitor shifts in the housing market and economy in light of COVID-19, and, in the coming weeks, homebuying activity will likely continue to be tempered by unemployment and recommended ongoing social distancing practices. We can expect to see home price growth slow drastically in response to this declining demand, with the HPI Forecast predicting less than 1% annual increase in home prices by March 2021. “Home prices for March reflect transactions negotiated primarily in the previous two months, prior to the implementation of the shelter-in-place policies. Rapid decline of purchase activity starting in the middle of March can be seen in other CoreLogic data and is consistent with our HPI forecast of slowing price growth in April,” . “The first quarter GDP results showed that the country entered a recession in March. Unemployment claims have reached record highs and this economic environment will further impact the housing market into the foreseeable future.” “The CoreLogic U.S. Home Price Index is predicted to remain largely unchanged over the next year or so after a long uninterrupted run of appreciation,” This graph from CoreLogic shows the YoY change in the index - and the CoreLogic forecast. CR Note: The impact of COVID-19 on house prices will probably not show up for several months. The report next month will be for April, and that is mostly for contracts signed in February and March. The overall impact on house prices will depend on the duration of the crisis.
Millions of Americans cannot pay their rent - On May 1, millions of Americans were not able to pay their rent due to the dire social crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, opening up a housing crisis in which many working class families face a future of debt, eviction and homelessness. The exact number of people who failed to meet rent or mortgage payments on May 1 has not been published. However, based on statistics gathered by the National Multifamily Housing Council, 31 percent of renters (25.8 million people) across the country will either fail to pay their April rent or will do so belatedly. Experts predict that the rate will be far higher for the month of May, as the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis deepens. An estimated 44 percent of New York City residents say they cannot pay their May rent, according to a localized survey by PropertyNext. In addition, 6.4 percent of all active home mortgages are currently in forbearance, temporarily extending the due date on a family’s payment, according to financial website Bankrate. This accounts for roughly 8 million households involving mortgages carrying an unpaid principal of $754 billion. Already, at least 3.8 million homeowners have sought mortgage relief and had stopped making their payments by the end of April, a 2,400 percent increase from early March, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. According to official figures, more than 30 million people have applied for unemployment benefits over the past six weeks. This is likely an underestimation of the number of people who have been laid off or furloughed due to the inability of many individuals to successfully file a claim, as underfunded and technologically backward state unemployment offices are inundated with requests. The true unemployment rate is estimated at between one-third and one-fourth of the eligible population. While trillions of dollars are handed over to the financial oligarchy by the political establishment, tens of millions of Americans face unemployment, loss of health care coverage, poverty and hunger. Without jobs and still waiting on stimulus checks and unemployment benefits, thousands are lining up their cars at food banks across the country. Small business owners are among those affected, as are undocumented immigrants, who do not qualify for any benefits.
NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.2 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 6 - CR Note: People are still paying their rent. In an email, NMHC analysts note that the rent "payment level represents a payment rate of 98.1 percent compared to May 1-6, 2019" From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.2 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.2 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by May 6 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 1.5-percentage point decrease in the share who paid rent through May 6, 2019 and compares to 78.0 percent that had paid by April 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “Despite the fact that over twenty million people lost their jobs in April, for the second month in a row, we are seeing evidence that apartment renters who can pay rent are stepping up and doing so,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “We expect May to largely mirror April, when the payment rate increased throughout the month as financial assistance worked its way to people’s bank accounts.” “However, we are in uncharted waters and will be watching this closely over the course of the month as millions of households will not be able to access unemployment benefits, and those who have may find that they are not enough to cover rent plus all the other financial pressures caused by this crisis,” said Bibby.
Editorial: Moratorium on evictions, utility cutoffs needed to prevent homeless surge | Editorial | St Louis Today - There’s another looming crisis related to this pandemic that needs the attention of Gov. Mike Parson and other political leaders before the situation gets out of control. Hundreds of thousands of displaced workers in Missouri have mortgages and rent to pay. An unemployment check and extra federal benefits only go so far — assuming the applicant even qualifies for that aid. People need to eat and cover utility bills while sheltering and looking for jobs.Neither local, state or federal budgets can handle the tab that’s coming due for unemployed renters and mortgage holders. It’s simply not realistic in view of the trillions of dollars already shoveled out the door in Washington for the federal government to devise a plan to cover the rent and mortgage payments of more than 30 million newly unemployed Americans.The short-term solution is a moratorium on evictions. This nation cannot afford the kinds of social upheaval that certainly would result if just a fraction, say 10%, of those newly unemployed are evicted from their homes and forced onto the street. The prospect of 3 million people suddenly rendered homeless is too apocalyptic to consider.A mass rent strike is not the answer and would give landlords and banks full justification for eviction. At the same time, housing demand has disappeared. It makes no sense to evict tenants simply so a landlord can inherit an empty space that earns no money and holds no prospect of becoming reoccupied anytime soon.A moratorium on evictions, foreclosures and service cutoffs by utilities would help reduce the massive stresses weighing on the minds of unemployed Americans and work wonders for the nation’s ability to get back on its feet once the pandemic subsides.The American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri, in a letter to Parson last week, called for such a moratorium specifically to address the disproportionate impact this pandemic has had on low-income people of color. Data analysisfrom evictions nationwide between 2012 to 2016 showed that evictions were filed against black renters at twice the rate of white renters. Black women in Missouri had evictions filed against them at more than twice the rate white renters experienced during that period, the ACLU says. Similar ratios were at play for utility shutoffs.
Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices declined sharply from the record highs in early 2018, and then increased until the COVID-19 crisis. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through Apr 24, 2020 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. Right now Random Lengths prices are unchanged from a year ago, and CME futures are down less than 1% year-over-year.
There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Prices fell sharply due to COVID-19, however future prices have rebounded somewhat (Note: Construction is considered an essential activity is ongoing in many areas)
• Occupancy: -58.5% to 28.6%
• Average daily rate (ADR): -44.0% to US$74.72
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -76.8% to US$21.39
“Week-to-week comparisons showed a third consecutive increase in room demand, which provides further hope that early-April was the performance bottom,” said Jan Freitag, STR’s senior VP of lodging insights. “TSA checkpoint numbers, up for the second week in a row, aligned with this rise in hotel guest activity, which still remains incredibly low in the big picture. Overall, these last few weeks can be filed under the ‘less bad’ category. “At the same time, this past week was the first to show solid evidence of leisure demand as weekend occupancy grew in states that have significantly eased mitigation efforts. As we have noted throughout the pandemic, the leisure segment will be the first to show a demand bounce back. In weeks prior, the more reasonable conclusion was that hotels were selling mostly to essential worker types.” The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). 2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 has crushed hotel occupancy.
JC Penney Strikes $500 Million Bankruptcy Financing Deal; Expected To File Next Week -JC Penney has spurned a bankruptcy financing package that was reportedly being put together by a consortium of Wall Street banks and is instead running right back into the arms of private equity for $500 million in cash plus a handful of other perks. Bloomberg reports JC Penney is negotiating a bankruptcy loan with KKR & Co., Ares, Sixth Street Partners & Apollo. According to details reported by BBG, the deal would leave Penney with $500M in cash and a slashed debt burden in exchange for control of the company, which will remain in operation. The plan will reportedly be included in the department store's bankruptcy filing, which should arrive as soon as next week. This latest development in JCP's bankruptcy saga - one of an expected wave of bankruptcies as the massive pile of junk-rated or just-above-junk debt rattling around the economy sparks a massive reckoning, something Sam Zell says is a painful but necessary stop on the way back.Yesterday, we reported that Neiman Marcus was filing (it officially filed just a few hours ago).
Las Vegas: "Effectively empty for the second half of March" - From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: Reflecting the impacts of travel restrictions imposed in the middle of March in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all key indicators saw dramatic YoY reductions. Las Vegas hosted an estimated 1.5 million visitors (-58.6%) during the month as the destination was effectively empty for the second half of the month. Likewise, convention attendance saw a YoY decrease of -54.8%.Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020. The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale). Convention traffic in March as down 54.8% compared to March 2019. And visitor traffic was down 58.6% YoY.The numbers for April will be much worse.
Disney says quarterly profit dropped 90 percent amid pandemic -- Media giant Disney saw its profit drop by more than 90 percent in the second quarter of its fiscal year, as the coronavirus pandemic has hamstrung all of the company's areas of business. Disney's revenue went up 21 percent from a year ago, largely due to its acquisition of certain Fox assets such as FX. But, the company's profit plummeted 91 percent from $5.43 billion last year to $475 million this year, according to The New York Times. One-time items excluded, profit per-share dropped from $1.61 to 60 cents, a decline of 63 percent. These figures are far from the $17.8 billion in revenue and per-share earnings of 88 cents that analysts had predicted.The company reported that Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, which encompasses theme parks, cruise vacations and retail stores, made $637 million in operating income, a drop of around 58 percent. Disney Shanghai closed its gates in January due to the initial outbreak in China, with the company's other parks around the world eventually following suit as the virus spread across the globe. Only its television division saw its income rise, up 7 percent to $2.38 billion.
Delta to suspend service to nearly a dozen US airports starting next week - Delta Air Lines announced Friday that it is suspending service to 10 U.S. airports where it also services a nearby airport until at least September in an attempt to consolidate its flights in metro areas. “Building on the numerous health and safety measures Delta has implemented in recent weeks to protect our customers and employees, we will temporarily consolidate our operations in several markets served by multiple airports beginning May 13 while customer volume is significantly reduced,” the company said in an announcement. “These changes will allow more of our frontline employees to minimize their COVID-19 exposure risk while ensuring convenient access to Delta’s network for those who must travel," it continued. "Delta will continue providing essential service to impacted communities via neighboring airports.” Delta said it is halting flights to Chicago Midway; Oakland International Airport; Hollywood Burbank; Long Beach; Providence, R.I., Westchester County Airport; Stewart International; Akron-Canton, Ohio; Manchester, N.H. and Newport News/Williamsburg. Delta also said it is cutting flights by 85 percent in the second quarter, including an 80 percent reduction in domestic capacity and a 90 percent cut internationally, and is looking to take similar measures in other markets. Eleven Secret Service agents test positive for COVID-19: report During this historic time, remember to value public service “The safety of our employees and customers remains our primary focus as we navigate these challenges together,” said Sandy Gordon, Senior Vice President of Domestic Airport Operations. “By consolidating operations while customer traffic is low, we can allow more of our people to stay home in accordance with local health guidelines.” Delta is just the latest airline to try to cut costs as the industry takes a significant financial hit during the coronavirus pandemic. The Transportation Department announced this week that JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines can stop some of its flights through the end of September. JetBlue will be permitted to halt flights to 16 U.S. cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, Seattle and Las Vegas, while Spirit can cease its flights into six airports, including those in Phoenix, Denver, Minneapolis and Seattle.
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 2.2% year-over-year in February, Pre-COVID - This will be interesting to track. The most recent release is for February 2020. The data for March will be released mid-month. The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.2% (4.9 billion vehicle miles) for February 2020 as compared with February 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 231.7 billion vehicle miles.The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2020 is 274.3 billion miles, a 2.3% (6.1 billion vehicle miles) increase over February 2019. It also represents -0.2% decline (-0.4 billion vehicle miles) compared with January 2020. Cumulative Travel for 2020 changed by 2.1% (10.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 485.3 billion vehicle miles of travel. The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven to remove the seasonal factors.
BEA: April Vehicles Sales decreased to 8.6 Million SAAR, Lowest in 50 Years -The BEA released their estimate of April vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated light vehicle sales of 8.58 million SAAR in April 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 24.5% from the revised March sales rate, and down 47.9% from April 2019.Sales in March were revised down slightly from 11.37 million SAAR to 11.36 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for April 2020 (red). The impact of COVID-19 is significant, although April may be the worst month for vehicle sales (depending on the course of the virus).The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 8.58 million SAAR. Sales collapsed in the second half of March, and in April were at the lowest level in 50 years - even lower than at the depth of the Great Recession.
Something Odd Is Going On In Parking Lots Around The US --Over the last few weeks, we have been keeping a close eye on the growing glut of automobile inventory, exacerbated by demand falling off a cliff, plunging used car prices and rental car companies suffering from an unprecedented collapse in business (or, like Hertz, simply going bankrupt). To wit, just hours ago, we documented how declining fleet sales was having a profoundly negative impact on automakers. Previously, we pointed out how a crash in used car prices could be putting significant pressure on the rental car industry. And most notably, several days ago we also wrote that automakers were having so much trouble finding space for their unsellable inventory that ships bearing auto cargo from overseas were denied entry at US ports and sent back out into the ocean. Now, we are seeing firsthand what buildups of inventory look like in major cities. Philadelphia is rapidly becoming the case study which other cities will follow, because as Inquirer reports, the city's sports complex parking lots are now being used as lots for rental car companies based at the Philadelphia Airport. In other words, there are so many cars available, not even airport parking lots can hold them anymore. In an effort to deal with the drop in air traffic, "rental cars are being stored at off-site locations, including the Wells Fargo Center parking lots," the Inquirer reported.Phil Weinberg, executive vice president and general counsel for Comcast Spectacor, which owns the Wells Fargo Center, said: "Enterprise is a corporate partner of the Flyers and the Wells Fargo Center, and it is the only company with rental vehicles parked at the stadium. They approached us shortly after the stay-at-home orders became effective and asked if we could assist them in parking their cars, which are clearly not in service right now."According to the Inquirer, the Wells Fargo Center is letting Enterprise park more than 2,000 vehicles free of charge, with no fixed end date in sight.The Wells Fargo Center isn’t the only sports venue in the country housing overflow rental vehicles. According to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Aloha Stadium has up to 1,500 rental cars from five companies parked in its lots.And in Southern California, thousands of rental cars fill the parking lots at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles and Angel Stadium in Anaheim, according to the Southern California News Group.
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 54% Year-over-year in April - The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.However heavy truck sales started declining late last year due to lower oil prices. And then heavy truck sales really declined at the end of March due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices. Heavy truck sales were at 259 thousand SAAR in April, down from 382 thousand SAAR in March, and down 54% from 565 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Heavy truck sales in April were still above the Great Recession low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009, and still above the record low of 159 thousand SAAR in 1982.
U.S. Factory Orders Fell Sharply in March – WSJ -U.S. factory orders posted a record drop in March as efforts to contain the new coronavirus disrupted supply chains and quashed demand, the Commerce Department said Monday. New orders for manufactured goods fell 10.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted $445.8 billion in March, the biggest month-to-month fall in records dating to 1992. Orders for aircraft, autos and oil field machinery all declined, reflecting decisions to halt travel and close factories, as well as rising consumer caution and plummeting energy prices. Net aircraft orders collapsed as airlines canceled contracts with Boeing Co. New orders for motor vehicles fell 6.7%, and those for mining and oil field machinery fell 7.2%. Overall orders for durable goods—products designed to last at least three years—were down 14.7% in March, the biggest monthly drop since August 2014 and the second-biggest on record. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, overall manufacturing orders were down a more modest 3.7%. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a closely watched proxy for business investment—were down just 0.1%. Already, the Commerce Department’s report is outdated. The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers, out Friday, showed U.S. manufacturing contracted at the sharpest rate since the last recession in April. An ISM subindex focusing on new orders fell to the lowest level since December 2008. “This measure is signaling that the recent stabilization in capital goods orders will soon be nothing but a fond memory,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at the consulting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.
AAR: April Rail Carloads down 25.2% YoY, Intermodal Down 17.2% YoY - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Any industry that’s been around for 190 years has experienced a lot, but railroads have never faced something quite like what they’re facing now: huge swaths of their customer base shut down, with no clear idea when things will get better. It’s a good thing they’ve never experienced it before because it means bad things for rail traffic: total originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 25.2% in April, their biggest year-over-year percentage decline since at least 1989 and probably for much longer. U.S. rail intermodal originations fell 17.2% in April 2020 from April 2019. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020: Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 196,107 per week in April 2020, easily the lowest weekly average for any month since before January 1988, when our data began. In fact, the five months from December 2019 through April 2020 are the five lowest-volume months (measured by weekly average total carloads) since before 1988. In April 2020, total carloads were down 25.2%, or 329,693 carloads, from last April. That’s the biggest year-over-year monthly percentage decline since our data began. The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. intermodal originations in April 2020 were down 17.2%, or 227,165 containers and trailers, from last year. April was the 15th consecutive year-over-year decline for intermodal, but it and March 2020 (a 12.2% decline) had by far the biggest percentage declines in those 15 months. Intermodal is facing several challenges, including lower demand for most consumer goods; weaker port volumes; lots of surplus truck capacity; and lower diesel fuel prices, which helps railroads and trucks but helps trucks relatively more since they’re not as fuel efficient as railroads.
Trade Deficit increased to $44.4 Billion in March - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $44.4 billion in March, up $4.6 billion from $39.8 billion in February, revised. March exports were $187.7 billion, $20.0 billion less than February exports. March imports were $232.2 billion, $15.4 billion less than February imports. Both exports and imports decreased in March. Exports are down 11% compared to March 2019; imports are down 12% compared to March 2019. Both imports and exports have decreased sharply due to COVID-19. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months. Oil imports averaged $47.09 per barrel in March, down from $57.24 in February, and down from $60.17 in March 2019. The trade deficit with China decreased to $11.8 billion in March, from $20.7 billion in March 2019.
March Trade Deficit at $44.4B - The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2020 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $39.8 billion in February (revised) to $44.4 billion in March, as exports decreased more than imports. The previously published February deficit was $39.9 billion. The goods deficit increased $4.6 billion in March to $65.6 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in March to $21.2 billion.The declines in March exports and imports were, in part, due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the trade statistics for March because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have monitored data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information on the compilation of this month’s report, seewww.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/notices/COVIDFAQSFT900.pdf for goods orwww.bea.gov/help/faq/1412 for services.Today's headline number of -44.4B was lower than the Investing.com forecast of -44.0B. Here is a snapshot that gives a better sense of the extreme volatility of this indicator.
U.S. March Trade Deficit Widened as Coronavirus Disruptions Spread – WSJ - The U.S. trade deficit widened in March as the economic shock related to the global coronavirus pandemic held down both imports and exports. The deficit rose 11.6% to a seasonally adjusted $44.4 billion in March from $39.8 billion in February, snapping two months of declines, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Imports declined 6.2% to $232.2 billion in March, the lowest figure since October 2016. Exports were down 9.6% to $187.7 billion, the lowest since November 2016. The March trade numbers are likely to be the beginning of a sustained fall in global trade, said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The coming months will probably show a continuing decline in U.S. imports and exports, he said. “It’s safe to project that April will see a much bigger fall and there’s not likely to be a significant recovery in May,” Mr. Setser said. Separate surveys of purchasing managers found that U.S. services businesses saw their steepest drop in activity in April since the last recession. The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.8 in April, down from 52.5 in March and the lowest reading since March 2009. And the private data firm IHS Markit said its U.S. services index—a survey-based measure of activity in industries such as finance, hotels and transportation—saw its sharpest one-month decline since the survey began in October 2009, falling to a seasonally adjusted 26.7 in April from 39.8 the prior month. Several factors have depressed global trade in recent months. First, the emergence of the new coronavirus in China caused factories there to shut down, disrupting supply chains world-wide. Then the virus spread around the world, prompting many businesses to close operations, which caused job losses, and many governments to issue stay-at-home orders, which held down consumer spending. The lockdowns have likely produced a global recession, further reducing demand.The Tuesday report offered an early glimpse at the effect of those lockdowns on travel and trade. Travel into the U.S.—counted as an export in trade statistics—was down 45.3% in March from the previous month. Overall services exports fell 15.3% on the month to $59.6 billion, the lowest since December 2013. The collapse in oil prices also contributed to slowing trade volumes in March. Imports of petroleum products were down 21.9% while exports fell 13.2%. Exports of cars and car parts were down 17.9%, reflecting both closed factories in the U.S. and a drop in global demand. Imports were down 8.9% from the previous month.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 41.8% in April -The April ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 41.8%, down from 52.5% in March. The employment index decreased to 30.0%, from 47.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2020 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® "The NMI® registered 41.8 percent, 10.7 percentage points lower than the March reading of 52.5 percent. This reading represents contraction in the non-manufacturing sector and is the NMI®'s lowest since March 2009 (40.1 percent). The Business Activity Index fell 22 percentage points from March's figure, registering 26 percent — the lowest reading for that index since the debut of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® in 1997. The New Orders Index registered 32.9 percent, 20 percentage points below the reading of 52.9 percent in March. The Employment Index decreased to 30 percent, 17 percentage points below the March reading of 47 percent. "The Supplier Deliveries Index registered an all-time high of 78.3 percent, up 16.2 percentage points from the March reading of 62.1 percent, which limited the decrease in the composite NMI®. The Supplier Deliveries Index is one of four equally weighted subindexes that directly factor into the NMI®, along with Business Activity, New Orders and Employment. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases. However, the combined 25.9-percentage point increase in March and April was primarily a product of supply problems related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.The headline index understated the weakness in the survey. The Supplier Deliveries index boosted the composite NMI, while other indexes hit record lows.
U.S. Services Businesses See Biggest Drop in Activity Since Last Recession – WSJ - U.S. services businesses saw their steepest drop in activity in April since the last recession as the coronavirus pandemic gained momentum, surveys of purchasing managers showed. The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.8 in April, down from 52.5 in March and the lowest reading since March 2009. Separately, private data firm IHS Markit said on Tuesday its U.S. services index—a survey-based measure of activity in industries such as finance, hotels and transportation—saw its sharpest one-month decline since the survey began in October 2009, falling to a seasonally adjusted 26.7 in April from 39.8 the prior month. For both surveys a level above 50 indicates expansion, while a level below 50 signals contraction. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said the survey indicates “the 4.8% rate of economic decline seen in the first quarter will likely be dwarfed by what’s to come in the second quarter.” The recovery for services businesses will likely be “long and slow,” even as state governments begin easing restrictions on business across the U.S., said Mr. Williamson. “While manufacturing may see a rebound in production as increasing numbers of factories are allowed to reopen, prospects look bleaker for many parts of the services economy, especially where businesses rely on travel, social gatherings or close contact with customers,” he said. Anthony Nieves, head of ISM’s services survey committee, said the outlook for recovery in the service sector is unusually unclear. “And right now we know consumer sentiment is lacking,” Mr. Nieves said. “So we don’t expect or anticipate a V-shaped recovery.” Analysis: Economy Gets a Haircut as Americans Don’t The ISM’s index for business activity slowed to 26.0 from 48.0 in March, the lowest reading since the index began in 1997. The index for employment dropped to 30.0 in April, from 47.0 the previous month, as all 18 industries tracked reported decreased employment. And new orders sank 20 percentage points to 32.9, the first contraction after 122 months of growth. The surveys captured an array of economic damage across the services sector in April. The oil exploration sector continued to suffer from a record low in prices. Dairy farmers reported dumping milk as supply chain disruptions sent prices down 29%, while slaughterhouse shutdowns left farmers unable to sell cattle. Respondents from the health-care industry reported “chaos across the supply chain,” as distributors bungled inventory management and transport.
Gloom grips US small businesses, with 52% predicting failure - COVID-19 could shutter most American small businesses.That’s according to a new survey from the Society for Human Resource Management which found that 52% expect to be out of business within six months. The survey of 375 firms was conducted between April 15-21 and doesn’t account for improved business conditions as some U.S. states reopen this month.“SHRM has tracked Covid-19’s impact on work, workers, and the workplace for months,” said SHRM Chief Executive Officer Johnny C. Taylor, Jr., “but these might be the most alarming findings to date. Small business is truly the backbone of our economy. So, when half say they’re worried about being wiped out, let’s remember: We’re talking about roughly 14 million businesses.”Just over a third of small firms expect that they can continue to operate more that 6 months, while 14% are uncertain, according to the survey. About one quarter of firms have seen revenues rise or remain unchanged in recent months. Among employees, hourly workers were hit hardest with eight in 10 firms cutting those positions, while 60% of surveyed businesses laid off salaried workers. A third of the companies polled by the advocacy group expected their payroll reductions to be permanent.
A note about the weekly and monthly economic data - For the past month or so, with the exception of the weekly catastrophe of new jobless claims it hasn’t been very important to keep track of the economic data. Now that it is May, that will start to change with the weekly data as of next week (reporting on this week). The monthly data for May, of course, won’t be reported for until June starts. That’s because the month of April was fully involved in the pandemic crisis. So with the month over month May data we will be able to see if the economy is beginning to stabilize at a lower level, sink even further as more second-order effects ripple out from the epicenter, or perhaps even rebound. With the exception of finding out what happened to wages during April (because of all of the reports of wage cuts), even this Friday’s employment report, while surely catastrophic, won’t be that important looking forward. The only monthly data from April that has been reported recently of note is that comparing personal income and spending (which was released last Thursday). The personal saving rate skyrocketed by over 60% compared with February: That’s because, while personal income declined by -2.0%, personal spending declined even more, by -7.5%: Part of that was simply that staying home, and the closure of dining and entertainment venues meant less opportunity to spend. But part was also the desire to hold onto savings in view of the dire short-term economic outlook. This is Keynes’s “paradox of thrift” in action. Wanting to insulate oneself from economic harm makes sense. But when everyone does it at once, as frequently happens during recessions, it necessarily means a downturn in consumer demand. And it is consumer demand which drives most of the economy. What we are going to find out this month in those States which have “reopened” their economies, is the answer to “if you open it, will they come?” I strongly suspect that the answer to that is “no,” but we will see.
Cash Cows - Meatpacking and the specter of Coronapolitics - IN EARLY APRIL, the meat-processing company Smithfield Foods announced a $500 “responsibility bonus” for employees who completed every shift that month at their plants across the country. A short video announced the measure with an appearance by the company’s CEO and cartoons of loyal (and happy) workers as superheroes. The decision was intended to keep Smithfield’s plants running; by reframing labor shortages and worker anger connected to the coronavirus pandemic around the notion of “responsibility,” it placed the burden of handling the crisis on employees. It would have been an HR-department masterstroke, if not for the crushing reality of the pandemic. By then, hundreds of workers at Smithfield plants had already been infected, and more and more were getting sick. Several, like sixty-four-year-old Agustin Rodriguez, had kept working at its facility in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, despite experiencing early symptoms of coronavirus. He was hospitalized on April 4. On April 12, facing a growing outbreak, Smithfield announced it was shuttering its Sioux Falls facility. Rodriguez would die from coronavirus complications a few days later. As of May 1, according to the Center for Disease Control, there are more than five thousand coronavirus cases in 115 meatpacking facilities across the United States, and twenty deaths. USA Today has calculated that roughly a third of the country’s meatpacking plants are in counties with high rates of coronavirus infection. That slaughterhouses have emerged as coronavirus “hot spots” is not a coincidence. The very forces that define modern meatpacking are those that drive the pandemic. The slaughterhouse relies on poorly paid workers in cramped conditions, who have limited power inside the workplace or out. Many of these workers are also undocumented, giving them poor access to government services and few options for alternate employment. Just as social distancing starves the coronavirus beast, those forced to work, whether because they are essential, or because staying home means financial ruin, feed the virus. After shuttering its Sioux Falls plant, Smithfield distributed a press release warning that the country was “perilously close” to a meat shortage. Panicked news reports appeared across the country; photos of empty meat aisles appeared in major newspapers. With a few notable exceptions, what should have been a conversation about worker safety became one about consumers. “We’re going to have positive Covid cases,” Smithfield’s CEO Kenneth Sullivan told the Wall Street Journal. “The question is what do you do in the face of that—do you stop the harvest, or continue, because it’s essential to life? There’s only one option there.”
Cattle farmers say while shelves are empty, fields are full -- While shoppers search for meat in major box stores, cattle farmers are trying to catch their attention. Mike Stokley is the owner of Big Creek Land & Livestock in Bourbon County. In recent months he has cut out the middle man when it comes to sending cattle to be processed and packaged. He says the decision has paid off. Many now search for meat and deal with purchase limits in stores, meanwhile he is seeing more customers than ever looking for a new beef dealer. "This isn't a new problem," said Stokley. "It's just been highlighted by COVID-19 and we are getting calls every day from people we don't' know in Lexington or surrounding counties and we've done pretty good business wise." Stores began limiting how many packages of meat shoppers could buy after major companies in the meat world temporarily shutdown. Meanwhile Stokley has been continuing to sell meat -- in some cases families going in together and buying whole beef. He questions a meat shortage when farmers just like him are seeing an incline in business that current box stores can't support. "There's no meat shortage," said Stokley. "There's a supply management issue. When four companies control 80% of the protein and they have bottle necked with this going on and it's created a need. It's a shortage on one end and excess on the other end." Stokley encourages anyone looking for meat to look up a local cattle farmer and give them your business. He believes the momentum will only continue after the pandemic as many discover a difference in meat quality.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 3,169,000 .The DOL reported: In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,169,000, a decrease of 677,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,839,000 to 3,846,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,173,500, a decrease of 861,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 5,033,250 to 5,035,000. The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
ADP: Private Employment decreased 20,236,000 in April -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April; the April NER Utilizes Data Through April 12 and Does Not Reflect the Full Impact of COVID-19 on the Overall Employment SituationPrivate sector employment decreased by 20,236,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month. The NER uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the April NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation… “Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during the Great Recession,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Additionally, it is important to note that the report is based on the total number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s payroll through the 12th of the month. This is the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey.”This was close to the consensus forecast for 20,000,000 private sector jobs lost in the ADP report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 21,000,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost in April.
"Unprecedented" - Companies Slashed Over 20 Million Jobs In April, ADP (see graphics) Given the fact that over 30 million Americans have filed for initial jobless claims in the last six weeks, it is perhaps no surprise that economists expected a 20.5 million ADP job loss in April. In fact, silver lining, the number 'beat' with 20.236 million For context, the largest monthly job loss during the great financial crisis was just 834,700!Large- and mid-sized companies saw the biggest job-losses... And the service sector saw the biggest job losses... If you're an educator or in "management", it would appear times remain good... “Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during the Great Recession,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of the ADP Research Institute.“Additionally, it is important to note that the report is based on the total number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s payroll through the 12th of the month. This is the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey.” And as we noted previously, far more Americans have lost their jobs in the last month than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession... (22.13 million gained in a decade, 30.3 million lost in 6 weeks)
April Employment Report: 20,500,000 Jobs Lost, 14.7% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with particularly heavy job losses in leisure and hospitality. ...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 from +275,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 from -701,000 to -870,000. With these revisions, employment changes in February and March combined were 214,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In April, the year-over-year change was -19.420 million jobs. Total payrolls decreased by 20.5 million in April. Payrolls for February and March were revised down 214 thousand combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 60.2% in April. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 51.3% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased in April to 14.7%. This was close to consensus expectations of 21,000,000 jobs lost, and February and March were revised down by 214,000 combined. This was the worst employment report ever, and the report for May will also be horrible.
April Unemployment Rate Rose to a Record 14.7% – WSJ —The April unemployment rate surged to a record 14.7% and payrolls dropped by a historic 20.5 million workers as the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy, wiping out a decade of job gains in a single month. Employment fell sharply in all broad business sectors last month and across all groups of workers, with particularly large increases in unemployment among women, college dropouts and Hispanics. The U.S. jobless rate eclipsed the previous record rate of 10.8% for data tracing back to 1948, though it was well below the 25% rate economists estimate was reached during the Great Depression. The job losses due to business closures triggered by the pandemic produced by far the steepest monthly decline on records back to 1939. By comparison, nearly 2 million jobs were lost in one month in 1945, at the end of World War II.Many economists project April will be the worst single month of job loss during the pandemic, and the pace of layoffs has already shown signs of easing this month. But they say it could still be many months before the labor market returns to a point when U.S. employers consistently add jobs, and it probably will take years for the economy to fully replace the jobs lost in April. The Labor Department survey of households showed a large number of workers who said they were “employed but absent from work.” Many of those should have been counted as a temporary layoff, which would have caused the unemployment rate to be almost 5 percentage points higher, the department said. The job losses and high unemployment mark a sharp pivot from just a few months ago, when the economy was pumping out hundreds of thousands of new jobs and joblessness was hovering near 50-year lows. The jobs bust has been widespread. Leisure and hospitality businesses, among the first to be affected by coronavirus-related shutdowns, saw particularly heavy losses, cutting 7.65 million jobs. The health-care, education, retail and professional services industries all experienced major losses. Among mostly white-collar jobs, consultants, accountants and lawyers all saw job losses. Average hourly earnings increased by 7.9% in April from a year earlier, likely reflecting that many low-wage workers lost their jobs, while more white-collar employees worked from home.The longer-term severity of the employment crisis depends on factors such as the path of the coronavirus and how fast consumers start to visit businesses and open up their wallets, as the economy reopens. Such reopenings are already materializing in South Carolina, Georgia, Texas and elsewhere, though often with restrictions. Further, the sharp rise in unemployment last month mainly reflected temporary, as opposed to permanent, layoffs. Of Americans who newly lost their jobs in April, 88% reported being on temporary layoff, meaning they are more likely to quickly return to their jobs when the crisis ends. In March, 47% of the newly unemployed were on temporary layoff, while 29% were in February.
Worst Jobs Report In History- 20.5 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rate Hits Record 14.7%While economic fundamentals ceased to matter about a month ago when the Fed went nuclear and not only injected trillions in the bond and repo market, but also directly backstopped the corporate bond market (with many expecting it will do the same in equities), there is something utterly surreal and terrifying watching stocks surge just as the US reports its worst jobs report in history, which it did moments ago when the BLS reported that in April, the US lost a record 20.5 million jobs, (not quite as bad as the 22 million expected but at this level what does it matter) the biggest drop in history, and 10x more than the 2 million jobs lost at the peak of the Great Depression. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 from +275,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 from -701,000 to -870,000. With these revisions, employment changes in February and March combined were 214,000 lower than previously reported, but in the context of the 20.5mm print this is completely irrelevant. Similarly, the unemployment rate, which just a few short months ago was at a 50-year low of 3.5%, exploded to the highest on record, surging by 10.3% to 14.7% (modestly below the 16.0% expected). This is the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to January 1948). The number of unemployed persons rose by 15.9 million to 23.1 million in April, reflecting the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. And the broader under-employment rate also soared. The BLS was quick to point out the impact of the coronavirus on the jobs report: Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between the two was no longer stable in April. Therefore, the establishment survey made modifications to the birth-death model. If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). In other words, the real unemployment rate was about 20%! Looking at the composition of job losses, here is who was hit the hardest:
- In April, employment in leisure and hospitality plummeted by 7.7 million, or 47 percent. Almost three-quarters of the decrease occurred in food services and drinking places (-5.5 million). Employment also fell in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry (-1.3 million) and in the accommodation industry (-839,000).
- Employment declined by 2.5 million in education and health services in April. In health care, employment declined by 1.4 million, led by losses in offices of dentists (-503,000), offices of physicians (-243,000), and offices of other health care practitioners (-205,000). Employment also declined in social assistance (-651,000), reflecting job losses in child day care services (-336,000) and individual and family services (-241,000). Employment in private education declined by 457,000 over the month.
- Professional and business services shed 2.1 million jobs in April. Sharp losses occurred in temporary help services (-842,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-259,000).
- Employment in retail trade declined by 2.1 million. Job losses occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (-740,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (-345,000), miscellaneous store retailers (-264,000), and furniture and home furnishings stores (-209,000). By contrast, the component of general merchandise stores that includes warehouse clubs and supercenters gained 93,000 jobs.
- Manufacturing employment dropped by 1.3 million. About two-thirds of the decline was in durable goods manufacturing (-914,000), which saw losses in motor vehicles and parts (-382,000) and in fabricated metal products (-109,000). Nondurable goods manufacturing shed 416,000 jobs.
- Employment in the other services industry declined by 1.3 million in April, with nearly two-thirds of the decline occurring in personal and laundry services (-797,000).
- Government employment dropped by 980,000 in April. Employment in local government was down by 801,000, in part reflecting school closures. Employment also declined in state government education (-176,000).
- Construction employment fell by 975,000 in April, with much of the loss in specialty trade contractors (-691,000). Job losses also occurred in construction of buildings (-206,000).
- Employment fell in transportation and warehousing in April (-584,000). Transit and ground passenger transportation and air transportation lost 185,000 jobs and 141,000 jobs, respectively.
- Wholesale trade shed 363,000 jobs in April, largely reflecting losses in the durable and nondurable goods components.
- Employment in financial activities fell by 262,000 over the month, with the vast majority of the decline occurring in real estate and rental and leasing (-222,000).
- Employment in information fell by 254,000 in April, driven by a decline in motion picture and sound recording industries (-217,000).
Health-Care Workers See Steep Job Losses From Coronavirus – WSJ - The jobs report released Friday said the health-care sector shed a record number of jobs in April as medical facilities halted elective procedures and doctors’ and dentists’ offices closed because of shutdowns aimed at containing the coronavirus. The count by the Labor Department, which broadly reported record payroll losses of 20.5 million and a 14.7% unemployment rate, included workers in hospitals, nursing-care facilities, diagnostic laboratories and medical offices focused on routine care. The health-care sector lost 1.4 million jobs in April, led by half a million jobs cut from dentists’ offices and nearly a quarter-million cut from physicians’ offices. Hospitals and doctors’ offices began in mid-March to postpone procedures that could wait, voluntarily or under state and local mandates.The halt to surgeries left hospitals better able to deal with an influx of coronavirus patients, a move that proved critical where outbreaks rapidly escalated. Elsewhere, however, hospitals emptied, and hospital earnings plummeted with the drop in patients and revenue. Hospitals cut nearly 135,000 jobs in April, according to the Labor Department. Hospitals and surgery centers face mounting financial pressure, and some say a number of lost jobs might not come back. “We’ve had a huge hit to our balance sheet,” said Alan Levine, chief executive of health-care system Ballad Health, which runs 21 hospitals in Tennessee and Virginia. The company, based in Johnson City, Tenn., has furloughed 1,400 of its 15,000 staff, and the CEO said he was “not in a position to guarantee all 1,400 will be able to come back.” “To have lost the ability to provide services, the impact financially for us has been absolutely devastating,” Mr. Levine said. St. Louis-based BJC HealthCare announced furloughs this week as it faced projections that operations won’t reach pre-pandemic levels before 2021, said Richard Liekweg, the system’s chief executive. The furloughs are expected to start May 17 and last for about two months, he said, adding that the system hasn’t made final how many employees will be temporarily out of work.
Truck Drivers Suffer Largest Job Loss On Record After April Bloodbath Leaves 88,300 Unemployed - On Thursday we noted that April orders for class 8 heavy trucks fell a staggering 73% year over year, and 44% from March - the worst order numbers on record as coronavirus shutdowns have put the trucking industry on the cusp of a "freight cliff" according to a FEMA report obtained by Politico. Unsurprisingly, truck drivers have suffered an absolute bloodbath - losing approximately 88,300 jobs in April alone, according to Business Insider, which notes that it's the largest single-month loss of trucking jobs on record (with records going back to 1990).April wiped out all trucking employments gained during the past five years and a half years [sic], bringing the industry back to its employment numbers in November 2014. The rest of the April jobs report, which was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 8, was similarly jarring. Some 20.5 million payrolls were cut in April, which is 25 times larger than the worst monthly decline seen during the recession in the late 2000s. -Business Insider And while truck drivers are considered "essential" workers amid the coronavirus pandemic, a collapse in freight volumes - of which nearly 75% of are moved by truck - has resulted in the devastating loss of jobs as the economy remains at a standstill.
A Bleak Landscape for Lowest Paid Workers – WSJ - In recent years, the only jobs many unskilled workers could find that weren’t vulnerable to automation and outsourcing involved manual labor, personal contact and low pay. Now, even those havens are being blown apart. Of the 20.5 million jobs lost in April, the hardest hit occupations and sectors were the ones most exposed to sweeping social-distancing measures, both government-ordered and personally adopted. They also pay less than average. Leisure and hospitality, where the hourly wage averages $18, lost 7.7 million jobs. Retail trade, which pays $21.20, lost 2.1 million. Because the losses were concentrated in the lowest-paying occupations, average hourly earnings got an artificial boost: up 4.7% from March to $30.01 for all private-sector employees.This is an epic reversal of fortune for those at the bottom of the income ladder. They took a beating during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath. That began to change in 2016 as unemployment marched toward its lowest level since the 1960s. Between 2010 and February, the unemployment rate of those with just a high school diploma fell from over 10% to under 4%, twice the drop for those with at least a bachelor’s degree. Employers, desperate for workers, boosted starting pay and hired long-shunned candidates such as those with criminal records. This boom succeeded, for a while, at halting some of the polarization of the labor market of the preceding decades. Technology and globalization have been a boon for people whose work is mostly cognitive, creative and problem-solving, such as engineers, managers, designers and scientists. They have been hardest on those who perform routine tasks that can be done by robots, artificial intelligence or low-paid foreign workers—factory employees and office assistants. Still, many occupations have been largely impervious to offshoring or automation, because they require physical presence, manual tasks that can’t be automated or personal contact. Some pay well, such as construction, but most don’t. They include home health-care aides, fast-food cooks and retail sales people.Just a quarter of sales and personal-care jobs can be done from home, and virtually none in health-care support and food services. Median pay in all those jobs was below $15. These workers aren’t just poorly paid. They are also less likely to have a college degree, cash reserves or employer-provided health insurance, or own their home, according to a recent paper by Simon Mongey at the University of Chicago and two co-authors. They are less likely to be white and more likely to work for a small business, precisely the type now at greatest risk of failure.
Temporary Coronavirus Layoffs Are Turning Permanent Around U.S. - With a history going back to 1881, the Michigan Maple Block Co. has long been a reliable fixture in the small northern town of Petoskey. And yet by early July it will be shutting its Petoskey factory and cutting loose all 56 workers at one of the few year-round businesses in the Lake Michigan tourist town. In an American economy negotiating a downturn that is already being likened to the 1930s Great Depression, with data on May 8 expected to show more than 20 million Americans lost their jobs in April, the story of Michigan Maple and its 56 workers is easy to ignore. It should, though, be a warning for those trying to figure if and when the U.S. economy can stage a full recovery from an induced coma. Although Covid-19 fatalities in the U.S. haven’t started to trend down yet, economists are beginning to see signs that the recession is bottoming out. Decision makers from President Trump down to company chief executive officers are hoping more than $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus and the gradual lifting of restrictions could set the stage for a significant rebound this summer. Yet what’s happening to Michigan Maple points to a worrying trend emerging from the stacks of layoff notices filed by businesses in California, Florida, and New York, where service industries have been hammered by lockdown orders, as well as politically important swing states such as Michigan and Ohio, where key industries such as steel and autos already faced headwinds going into 2020. Plenty of layoffs that just a month ago were labeled “temporary” are now tagged “indefinite” or “permanent.” Alongside announcements of sweeping staff cuts by major employers such as Boeing Co. and U.S. Steel Corp. and the accelerating pace of downsizing in brick-and-mortar retailing, such notices are a sign that even as businesses continue to hope for a speedy recovery, they are starting to plan for a slow one.The new permanent layoffs are hitting a wide swath of the economy both geographically and sectorally.Uber Technologies Inc. on Wednesday became the latest major company to announced long-term layoffs, saying it would be eliminating 3,700 jobs, or 14% of its staff worldwide. A day earlier, Airbnb Inc. said it was cutting 25% of its workforce, or about 1,900 people worldwide. You can see it in Ferndale, Wash., where aluminum giant Alcoa Corp. recently notified state officials that it will be laying off 700 workers by the end of July as it shuts down a smelter that has been a fixture in the community since 1966, part of a plan to “curtail” almost 50% of its global smelting capacity.In such industries as aviation, companies large and small are resorting to permanent layoffs. On April 29, Boeing announced it will cut about 16,000 employees, approximately 10% of its workforce, this year. CEO David Calhoun said he anticipates it will take about three years for the aviation industry to see demand return to 2019 levels amid a global collapse in air travel. Less than a week earlier, Constant Aviation, an aircraft maintenance contractor, notified officials in Ohio that it planned to shutter a facility at Cuyahoga County Airport outside Cleveland and dismiss 52 workers. In documents filed with the state, Constant CEO David Davies called the closure a “necessary response to the unprecedented and unforeseeable business circumstances created by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
US Steel lays off 2,700 workers, threatens to cut one-third of its production workforce - US Steel announced plans to lay off 2,700 workers immediately and up to 6,500 in the near future, as steel production continues its tailspin, devastating workers, their families and the communities they live in. After posting a $391 million loss for the first quarter of 2020, the Pittsburgh-based company said it was sending out Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices to 6,500 employees, or over a third of its 16,000 production workers. Last month, the company laid off 750 salaried workers, or one-quarter of its white-collar workers. US Steel, the second-largest US-based steel producer, has 21,000 employees in North America, about 18,000 of whom are in the United Steelworkers union. The company employs another 12,000 workers in Europe, most of who are in Kosice, Slovakia, where more layoffs are expected. While announcing the immediate layoffs, the company said in a statement that due to the continued downturn in the economy it was keeping the option open for thousands of more job cuts. At its Mon Valley plants, south of Pittsburgh, US Steel is idling the #1 blast furnace at its Edgar Thomson Works in Braddock and scaling back production at its Irvin Works in nearby West Mifflin. The company is also scaling back production at its Clairton Coke Works in the Pittsburgh area. The majority of the WARN notices were sent to 3,800 workers at its Gary Works in Gary, Indiana, and its nearby Midwest Plant in Portage, Indiana. Press reports are saying that the company plans to lay off 10 percent of the workforce at those facilities but could lay off far more as steel demand continues to plummet. The company is idling the #6 blast furnace at the Gary Works, and there will be corresponding layoffs throughout the mills in the rolling and finishing section. In early April, ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel producer, which employs about 10,000 workers in northwest Indiana, announced it was idling the Indiana Harbor #3 blast furnace and the Indiana Harbor #4 blast furnace in East Chicago, as well as the Cleveland #6 blast furnace, leaving it with just four blast furnaces running in the US during the pandemic. Even before the current layoffs, 36 percent of the residents of Gary lived below the government’s absurdly low official poverty threshold of $24,600 for a family of four in 2017. A survey found a staggering 60.5 percent of children enrolled in nursery schools and 57.3 percent in grades one through four live in poverty in the area. Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, Lake County, which includes Gary, has suffered nearly 2,000 COVID-19 cases and 95 deaths. Businesses have closed, driving up unemployment in the area, and food banks are overwhelmed as people scramble for enough to eat.
Layoffs and corporate bankruptcies spread as US workers face mounting hardship - US clothing retailer J. Crew filed for bankruptcy and US Steel and GE Aviation announced major job cuts as the economic catastrophe engulfing US workers continued to grow amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Along with a general meltdown of brick and mortar retail, manufacturing, health care and public services face deep cuts. Despite the push by the Trump administration to abandon social distancing standards and reopen wide sections of the US economy, the official US COVID-19 death toll is holding steady at about 2,000 daily. By the latest count, cumulative US deaths are near 70,000, with over 1.2 million confirmed infections. A report by the Centers for Disease Control published in the New York Times Monday contradicted the rosy official reports by the White House suggesting that the virus is in decline. It predicted that the US daily death rate would reach 3,000 by June 1, with 200,000 new cases daily as the virus spreads into less urbanized areas that previously had been only lightly impacted. The health crisis is being compounded by a continuing meltdown of the US economy, with 30 million having filed for unemployment benefits and unknown millions more either not eligible for jobless pay or unable to file due to overloaded state offices. This does not take into account the millions of small businesses facing ruin due to the drying up of customers. On top of the millions impacted by temporary business closures, major corporations are announcing permanent job cuts in anticipation of a protracted recession. US fashion retail chain J. Crew filed chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 4, the first national retail casualty of the pandemic. It has agreed to turn over effective control of the company to its creditors in exchange for the cancellation of $1.7 billion in debt. It said it had no plans at present to close stores, but its future, like that of many retail businesses, remains highly uncertain. Other major retailers could follow. Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney are reportedly struggling to raise cash and are likely considering following the examples of J. Crew.Meanwhile, US Steel said in a filing Friday that it is preparing for the layoff of as many as 6,500 employees, although it expects the actual number affected to be about 2,700 of the 27,500 it currently employs. Even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, the company faced slowing demand as auto sales stagnated.
'The government is failing us': Laid-off Americans struggle in coronavirus crisis - Since losing her position at the makeup counter at the Macy’s department store in Orlando, Florida, on March 28, Claudia Alejandra spends her days trying to secure the unemployment benefits that should have arrived weeks ago, sometimes placing more than 100 calls a day. The online application, a 10-hour ordeal of error messages, ended with a notice that her identity could not be verified. If she’s lucky, she’ll reach a representative who will say there’s nothing they can do to help. Otherwise, it’s a busy signal, or an hours-long wait on hold, followed by a sudden hang-up. Alejandra, 37, cashed out her retirement fund — $800, a year’s worth of savings — to make the monthly payments on her 2010 Mazda, but doesn’t know how she’ll pay the rent for her studio apartment or her phone bill. Longer-term goals — a promotion, a family, a house of her own — seem even more elusive. Alejandra’s experience is similar to that of more than two dozen Americans thrown out of work during the coronavirus pandemic who Reuters interviewed over the past week. While U.S. government guidelines say jobless workers who qualify for assistance should get payments within three weeks of applying, many — like Alejandra — are waiting twice that long. Increasingly desperate, some are lining up at food banks or bargaining with landlords to postpone bills. Most fill their days seeking answers from overwhelmed state bureaucracies. Alejandra has not heard anything from the state — though she has gotten a fundraising email from Republican Senator Rick Scott, who set up the current unemployment system during his tenure as governor. “I feel like the government is failing us,” she said in a telephone interview. Florida has overhauled and expanded the computer system and brought in 2,000 agents to field calls, and plans an investigation of the system’s failings, Governor Ron DeSantis said at a Monday news conference. People who applied in March and haven’t gotten payments yet likely have not provided all of the required information or might not be eligible, he said. “You’ve started to see a really significant volume of payments going out, and it’s really taken a major overhaul behind the scenes,” he said. His office did not respond to an email with detailed questions on the situation.
Amazon told workers paid sick leave law doesn't cover warehouses --Amazon workers in southern California’s industrial heartland say the company’s policies are forcing sick employees to work and that warehouses are refusing to comply with a state paid sick leave law meant to prevent Covid-19 outbreaks. In the Inland Empire region outside Los Angeles, Amazon workers told the Guardian they fear losing their jobs if they are ill and stay home. At least four Amazon warehouses in the region have recorded Covid-19 cases. On 1 May, Amazon ended a policy allowing unlimited unpaid time off, a measure adopted at the start of the coronavirus crisis that allowed workers to take time off for any reason. They would forgo wages, but if they were concerned about their safety or had new childcare responsibilities due to lockdowns, they could stay home without losing their jobs. Without the policy, workers say they could now be fired if they miss shifts. They worry the reversal will result in sick and vulnerable people showing up for shifts because they can’t risk termination. The health concerns are particularly serious in the Inland Empire, which has some of the worst air quality in the US and disproportionately high rates of asthma and other respiratory illnesses. Employees also shared emails showing that Amazon has dismissed some paid sick leave requests by claiming a California law intended to provide supplemental sick leave during the pandemic does not apply to the warehouses. “I’m afraid to come to work, but I don’t have a choice,” said Eddie, a 48-year-old San Bernardino worker with diabetes, who asked to go by his middle name and works in one of the facilities that had an outbreak. “I shouldn’t be there. We’re risking our safety for the company … The more I think about it, the more stressed I get.” “We are a vector of this disease,” said one worker at a warehouse in San Bernardino. The 27-year-old, who requested anonymity for fear of retaliation, recovered from pneumonia last year and is at high risk of serious complications if they contract Covid. “There shouldn’t even be a debate about this. It’s incredibly nerve-racking.”
Comptroller Warns 1 In 5 Jobs Will Evaporate As NYC Faces Biggest Crisis Since Great Depression - During the depths of the financial crisis as Lehman collapsed and fears about another Great Depression spiked, nearly 200,000 Wall Street professionals lost their jobs. But that figure will likely pale in comparison to the broad-based economic destruction brought by the coronavirus, which will hammer virtually every industry and sector. To wit, in a presentation from NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer responding to Mayor de Blasio's budget proposal for the coming fiscal year, Hizzoner's anointed successor (Stringer is planning a run for mayor next year when Blaz gets term-limited out) revealed that the city will lose as many as 900,000 jobs - roughly 1 in 5 - as the fallout from the crisis worsens.What's worse: most of this destruction is expected to take place by the end of June. The worst-hit businesses include restaurants, hotels and, of course, retail. As Bloomberg points out, Stringer’s forecast is more dire than the mayor’s prediction last month that the city would lose more than half a million jobs over the first three quarters of the year.Stringer warned that as de Blasio pushes to ramp up spending on social services, the city's finances are in tatters thanks to an expected $3 billion shortfall in state funding. Stringer called on Blaz to cut $89.3 billion from his proposed budget.Stringer also joined de Blasio’s call for more federal aid, arguing that New York contributes more to the federal budget than it gets back in aid.Without a doubt, NYC is facing its "deepest recession" since the Great Depression, with much of the country's job losses likely centered on the city, which also saw an outsize share of economic growth during the post-crisis recovery.
Coronavirus Hits Hawaii’s Tourism-Dependent Workforce Hard – WSJ - Hawaii’s workforce has sought unemployment benefits at the highest rate in the nation since mid-March, reflecting how hard the coronavirus pandemic has hit the state’s vital tourism industry. The surge in job losses is renewing worries about the state’s reliance on visitor spending and need to diversify its economy. The crisis is also raising questions about how businesses on the islands—many of which depend on air travel, recreation and social gatherings—can rebound once restrictions on activity are lifted. The state’s $18 billion tourism industry ground to a near-halt in March, after the Trump administration recommended Americans avoid unnecessary travel and bars and restaurant dining rooms closed. Hawaii’s Chamber of Commerce said many of its members were already closing down temporarily or reducing business hours before the state’s March 25 stay-at-home order. A recent survey by the Chamber and the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization found about one in four businesses anticipated having to shut their doors permanently, About 194,000 people in Hawaii filed claims for unemployment benefits in the six weeks ended April 25, representing 29.1% of the state’s workforce. While restaurants and hotels were responsible for many of the early layoffs, related businesses such as gift shops, surfing schools and tour operators all shed workers in recent weeks.
America begins to reopen but businesses and customers in no rush to get back They were not exactly rushing to embrace their new-found freedom in Liberty, Missouri. Even as the state endured its largest increase in coronavirus cases on Monday, Missouri’s Republican governor, Mike Parson, decided to press ahead with his plan to allow businesses to reopen and to lift restrictions on social gatherings imposed as the pandemic crept closer six weeks ago. But for all the fury of gun-toting protests against lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in some parts of America, only a smattering of Liberty’s shops and restaurants opened their doors. While many people were pleased to see the restrictions eased, some also harbored doubts about whether it might lead to a resurgence of Covid-19, with Missouri recording more than 8,700 confirmed cases and a total of 358 deaths by Monday, and projections that 3,000 people a day could be dying across the US in a month. Parson has lifted some restrictions put in place to slow the spread and allowed some businesses to reopen. Photograph: Jeff Roberson/AP A short line formed outside Brendle’s barber shop, where the owner had refused offers of large payments to cut hair during the closure. “You wouldn’t believe what people offered me for haircuts. Fifty dollars from one man. I got a guy, a regular customer, who was super pissed at me because I wouldn’t open up to give him a cut,” said Tara Brendle. Brendle said she was nervous about reopening, but decided to do so with precautions, including obliging customers to wait outside the door and sanitizing everything from chairs to gowns between them. “I’m not as worried about myself as I am about other people like my parents and kids,” she said. “But I needed to go back to business. Luckily I don’t have a ton of overheads. I had savings I dipped into. I wouldn’t have survived without it. But I couldn’t go on much longer.” Lyle Hoover, waiting outside for his first haircut since the lockdown, thought it was about time. “As this thing barrels on, I can’t help but think we’re being manipulated. Not to take anything from the seriousness of coronavirus but I think it’s being blown way out of proportion. There’s a good percentage of this country who live paycheck to paycheck, and now their livelihood has been taken away,” he said.
More Kentucky small businesses win coronavirus relief loans | Lexington Herald Leader - The second round of the Paycheck Protection loan program had helped Kentucky businesses secure nearly $1.1 billion as of Friday, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. That amount was spread over 18,202 loans statewide, according to the Small Business Administration. Those loan approvals came over a span of just four days, from April 27 to May 1. Kentucky is 30th among states and territories in dollar amount and 34th in number of loans approved for the second round. The first round of the program saw Kentucky get 23,797 loans totaling more than $4.1 billion, but those loans were approved over two weeks. Small businesses were eligible to apply on April 3, and the program ran out of money on April 16. After the program ran out of money in the first round, loan amounts have been much smaller nationwide in the second round. In Kentucky, loans have been more than 65 percent smaller. Kentucky businesses that got loans in round one received an average of $175,369, according to the Small Business Administration. This time, businesses have gotten an average of $60,265.24. The average loan size nationwide is $79,000. The personal paycheck protection loans are two-year loans with a 1 percent interest rate and deferred payments for up to six months. The loans will be forgiven by the government if at least 75 percent of the money is used for payroll and the business doesn’t cut employees or make salary reductions. Some Kentucky businesses with budgets in the millions of dollars used round one of the program to get millions of dollars in loans. Lexington-based coal company Ramaco was approved for an $8.4 million loan through the personal paycheck protection program, according to a company SEC filing from April 21. Rhino Resource Partners, another Lexington-based coal company, received approval for a $10 million loan through the personal paycheck protection program on April 22, according to its SEC filing. The publicly-traded company has had financial struggles, but they aren’t new. Rhino hasn’t turned a profit in any of the last five years, according to Reuters financial reporting. Its 2019 net revenue — before the coronavirus outbreak — was a loss of $99.5 million. Its total operating expenses neared $221 million.
One of Main Street's biggest fears in economic reopening — new regulations -- For several weeks from March into April, new regulations to mitigate the threat from the novel coronavirus sprang up almost every day: first social distancing recommendations, then stay-at-home orders, then restaurant bans, gym closures and nonessential business shutdowns. Now, as the country looks to reopen the economy, an entirely different set of standards are being introduced. For small businesses, operating under these increasing regulations has become nearly impossible — not that they have much choice. In the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, almost a third of small business owners have been required by their state or local government to close their in-person business operations, and 23% have temporarily closed their entire business. Looking further ahead, small business owners are daunted by the idea of keeping up with a continually changing gauntlet of regulatory hurdles. In the survey, conducted April 21–27, 38% of small business owners said they expect changes in government regulations to have a negative effect on their business in the next 12 months. That is the highest that value has been in the three-plus years of the survey, which reaches more than 2,000 small business owners in the U.S. every quarter. The rise in pessimism is steep. Just three months ago only 26% anticipated a negative impact from regulatory changes, and the 12 percentage-point quarter-over-quarter increase is the sharpest change in that measure over the history of the survey. Meanwhile, the number saying they expect a positive effect on their business ticked down from 23% to 20%, and the number saying they expect no effect dropped from 50% to 40%. As difficult as it may be, small businesses will have to adjust to increased regulations in order to reopen. Simply declaring the economy to be open for business will serve no purpose if people are afraid to leave the safety of their homes. Regulations provide reassurance that the public and private sectors are working together to protect everyone: consumers, workers and business owners alike.
States Slowly Emerge From Lockdowns as Global Coronavirus Cases Near 4 Million – WSJ - More U.S. states eased coronavirus-related restrictions after weeks of lockdowns that have battered the economy, while two White House staffers tested positive this week, the first known cases among people who worked in proximity to President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence.White House officials were informed on Friday that Katie Miller, Mr. Pence’s press secretary,tested positive for the virus, according to a person familiar with the matter. Her diagnosis comes the same week that a member of the U.S. military who works in the White House complex also tested positive. Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence, who both undergo daily testing, tested negative for the virus after learning about the diagnosis. Nearly 1.3 million Americans have been infected by the new coronavirus, while more than 77,000 have been killed, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Globally, almost 4 million have been infected, with the death toll approaching 275,000, the data show. Even as more countries emerge from extended lockdowns, some places are imposing fresh restrictions on people’s movements in order to curb quickly rising infection rates.New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a Friday briefing that the state, the hardest-hit in the U.S., was “finally ahead of this virus,” pointing to a drop in hospitalization and infection rates, but said he would proceed with caution when deciding on whether to reopen after May 15. California loosened its coronavirus-related restrictions Friday. Retailers such as clothing stores, bookstores, florists and sporting goods stores could offer curbside pickup. Dine-in restaurants, gyms, offices and other nonessential stores will remain closed. North Carolina, which remains under a blanket stay-at-home order, began its first phase of reopening Friday afternoon. Other states, including Nevada and Michigan, will begin easing some restrictions in the coming days. Maine Gov. Janet Mills said Friday that some businesses in 12 counties with low case counts and no evidence of community transmission would be allowed to open.The gradual reopening of U.S. states comes as April’s unemployment rate surged to a record 14.7% and payrolls dropped by a historic 20.5 million workers as the pandemic hit the economy.The Trump administration is taking a wait-and-see approach on further spending, with a top economic adviser to President Trump saying formal negotiations over the next coronavirus relief package won’t resume until late May or early June.The reopening of economies in Europe and the Middle East, meanwhile, continued apace as governments grappled to keep new infections down.France will start lifting its almost two-month lockdown on Monday, with some kindergarten and primary schools set to reopen and people free to move around within 62 miles of their homes. The country’s state-owned rail company increased train services over the weekend to allow people who left Paris ahead of the confinement to return to the capital.In the Paris region, people will need an official form from their employer to take the metro at peak times starting Monday. Cafes and restaurants across the country will remain closed for a few weeks at least, officials have said. From Thursday to Friday evening, France’s death toll from Covid-19 rose by 243 to 26,230. The number of people hospitalized continued to drop, and the number of people on life support—a key measure tracked by French authorities to ensure hospitals aren’t saturated—is now well below half of the peak registered in early April.
Screen New Deal: Under Cover of Mass Death, Andrew Cuomo Calls in the Billionaires to Build a High-Tech Dystopia - Naomi Klein - FOR A FEW fleeting moments during New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s daily coronavirus briefing on Wednesday, the somber grimace that has filled our screens for weeks was briefly replaced by something resembling a smile. “We are ready, we’re all-in,” the governor gushed. “We are New Yorkers, so we’re aggressive about it, we’re ambitious about it. … We realize that change is not only imminent, but it can actually be a friend if done the right way.” The inspiration for these uncharacteristically good vibes was a video visit from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who joined the governor’s briefing to announce that he will be heading up a blue-ribbon commission to reimagine New York state’s post-Covid reality, with an emphasis on permanently integrating technology into every aspect of civic life. “The first priorities of what we’re trying to do,” Schmidt said, “are focused on telehealth, remote learning, and broadband. … We need to look for solutions that can be presented now, and accelerated, and use technology to make things better.” Lest there be any doubt that the former Google chair’s goals were purely benevolent, his video background featured a framed pair of golden angel wings. Just one day earlier, Cuomo had announced a similar partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to develop “a smarter education system.” Calling Gates a “visionary,” Cuomo said the pandemic has created “a moment in history when we can actually incorporate and advance [Gates’s] ideas … all these buildings, all these physical classrooms — why with all the technology you have?” he asked, apparently rhetorically. It has taken some time to gel, but something resembling a coherent Pandemic Shock Doctrine is beginning to emerge. Call it the “Screen New Deal.” Far more high-tech than anything we have seen during previous disasters, the future that is being rushed into being as the bodies still pile up treats our past weeks of physical isolation not as a painful necessity to save lives, but as a living laboratory for a permanent — and highly profitable — no-touch future. “There has been a distinct warming up to human-less, contactless technology,” Anuja Sonalker, CEO of Steer Tech, said. “Humans are biohazards, machines are not.” It’s a future in which our homes are never again exclusively personal spaces but are also, via high-speed digital connectivity, our schools, our doctor’s offices, our gyms, and, if determined by the state, our jails. Of course, for many of us, those same homes were already turning into our never-off workplaces and our primary entertainment venues before the pandemic, and surveillance incarceration “in the community” was already booming. This is a future in which, for the privileged, almost everything is home delivered, either virtually via streaming and cloud technology, or physically via driverless vehicle or drone, then screen “shared” on a mediated platform. It’s a future that employs far fewer teachers, doctors, and drivers. It accepts no cash or credit cards (under guise of virus control) and has skeletal mass transit and far less live art. It’s a future that claims to be run on “artificial intelligence” but is actually held together by tens of millions of anonymous workers tucked away in warehouses, data centers, content moderation mills, electronic sweatshops, lithium mines, industrial farms, meat-processing plants, and prisons, where they are left unprotected from disease and hyperexploition. It’s a future in which our every move, our every word, our every relationship is trackable, traceable, and data-mineable by unprecedented collaborations between government and tech giants.
State and Federal Governments Look to Feed the Hungry and Reduce Food Waste - Something is fundamentally wrong in the food supply chain. More and more people are going hungry and applying for food assistance. Meanwhile, farmers are dumping milk and eggs and plowing under their fields. Major food buyers like schools, hotels and restaurants have shut down, leaving nowhere for the food to go. This is the largest amount of food destroyed since the Great Depression.In fact, last month, farmers were dumping 3.7 million gallons of milk each day, draining it into manure pits, where it mixed with fertilizer used in the fields, as The New York Times reported."These are not insolvable problems," said Marion Nestle, a food studies professor at New York University, who spoke to The New York Times. "These are problems that require a lot of people, sums of money and some thought. If the government were really interested in making sure that hungry people got fed and farmers were supported, they would figure out a way to do it."The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will soon spend $300 million a month to purchase surplus vegetables, fruit, milk and meat from distributors and ship them to food banks. The department will also subsidize the boxing up of food for shipment to food banks, which is something that farmers had complained they could not afford to do, according to The New York Times.However, as The Revelator noted, the USDA already buys unwanted cheese to the tune of more than $20 million in a year, which is also produced with taxpayer-funded subsidies. The U.S. government currently has a federal stockpile of 1.4 billion pounds of cheese. In a widely shared tweet last month, Wisconsin journalist Shaun Gallagher shared a video of tens of thousands of gallons of milk running down a drain. "#COVID19Pandemic is forcing dairy farmers to dump their milk down the drain so the milk market doesn't implode. Why not give it away to those who need it?" Gallagher wrote on Twitter. The same issue has plagued New York state. "This is just a total waste to me," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said last week, as The New York Daily News reported. "We have people downstate who need food and farmers upstate who can't sell their product. We need to make that marriage between product upstate and need downstate."
Immigrant families living in Tennessee mobile home park denied aid, threatened with deportation by property managers -- Residents of a mobile home park in southeastern Tennessee say they have been threatened with eviction and deportation in a scheme to extort money from workers living there. The Auburn Hills Mobile Home Park in Ooltewah, a suburb of Chattanooga, is home to mostly Hispanic immigrant families. Police are investigating the families’ complaints after the mobile home park’s operators, identified by the Chattanooga Times Free Press as Steven and Kim West, were arrested and charged with hoarding $60,000 in supplies donated for the park residences. Donations were made after an EF-3 tornado moved through the area hitting the park on Easter Sunday and destroying or damaging many homes and killing one man, 46-year-old Jose Arzate. Sheriff’s deputies seized donated items including 54 American Red Cross totes, diapers, masks, cases of bottled water and an unopened generator, the Times Free Press reported. Also reported was that many of the donations, according to the Sheriff’s department, were stored in a trailer that had been “screwed shut.” Residents told police that the Wests never seemed to lack a reason to charge them fees, sometimes asking for additional rent payments even though it had been paid. To balk at paying again would prompt threats of eviction and deportation. The mangers also imposed fines ranging from $25 to $50 for menial property rule infractions and late payment fees on rent that was paid on time. “Each charge was backed up by the threat of deportation or eviction made by the Wests,” the newspaper reported. "They threaten you no matter what," Joel Trujillo, who has lived in the park with his wife and three children for 10 years, told the Times Free Press. "I mean, they just do it for no reason. And every time they threaten you, it's $25. Every time you get a letter, 25 bucks ... and we don't, I mean most of us don't, have anywhere we can go or anyone we can go to about this." Such cruel behavior does not just happen because some people are “bad” and cruel. Acts like this, if proven true, occur in a social context. The building of Trump’s border wall, the raids on immigrant workers at their jobs, the separation of immigrant families, confining of immigrant children in cages and the constant nationalist drone that “they are stealing our jobs” help create a noxious atmosphere which inflates fear and hatred of immigrants, in a effort to pit workers against each other.
Customers shot 2 McDonald's employees in Oklahoma City after being told to leave due to coronavirus restrictions - Two McDonald's employees in Oklahoma City were shot Wednesday after they told two customers to leave the store's dining area, police said.The suspects got angry and took out a gun when they were asked to leave due to coronavirus restrictions, Oklahoma City Police Lt. Michelle Henderson told CNN.Two workers were shot and a third was injured after a scuffle broke out, Henderson said. Police told CNN affiliate KOCO that one of the victims was shot in the leg while the other was shot in the shoulder. Neither injury is considered life-threatening, the affiliate reported.Police at the scene also said a female employee received cuts to her head, KOCO reported. The two suspects left the scene but were found nearby, Henderson added.The incident is one of a number reported across the country that authorities said were related to restrictions put in place to combat the spread of the virus. In Michigan, a Family Dollar store security guard was shot after telling a customer to wear a face mask -- a mandate in place by the state for all retail stores. A security guard was shot after telling a customer to wear a face mask, officials say. His widow calls the killing 'senseless and stupid'. Also in Michigan, a man wiped his nose on a Dollar Tree worker's shirt after the employee told him he needed to wear a mask.
'Swastikas and nooses': governor slams 'racism' of Michigan lockdown protest -- Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan issued a rebuke of the armed protesters who gathered inside the state capitol last week in defiance of statewide lockdown orders, saying the demonstrators embodied some of the “worst racism” of the nation’s history. Last week Donald Trump had said of the protesters: “These are very good people.” Hundreds of protesters, many not wearing protective face masks and some armed legally with “long guns”, gathered inside the statehouse in Lansing on Thursday as lawmakers debated the Democratic governor’s request to extend her emergency powers to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The tightly packed crowd attempted to enter the floor of the legislative chamber and were held back by a line of state police and capitol staff, according to video footage posted by local journalists. Whitmer highlighted that the number of protesters was relatively small but that the imagery some of them used was a disturbing reminder of ugly elements of America’s past. “We know that people are not all happy about having to take the stay-home posture,” Whitmer said on Sunday, “and you know what, I’m not either. But we have to listen to the public health experts and displays like the one we saw in our state capitol are not representative of who we are in Michigan. “There were swastikas and Confederate flags and nooses and people with assault rifles. That’s a small group of people when you think that this is a state of almost 10 million people, the vast majority of whom are doing the right thing.” Displaying the Confederate flag, or other symbols of the slave-owning south during the American civil war, is usually seen as racist. While some claim they are celebrating southern identity, it is widely seen as a racist symbol deeply offensive to black Americans. There is also an ongoing campaign to remove Confederate war statues from public display or rename streets and buildings which commemorate Confederate generals or politicians. Last week, the Democratic congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, who represents Michigan’s 13th congressional district, condemned the demonstrations at the state Capitol. “Black people get executed by police for just existing, while white people dressed like militia members carrying assault weapons are allowed to threaten State Legislators and staff,” Tlaib wrote.
Over 40 percent of mothers with children ages 12 and under are now food insecure in the US --A blog post on the website of The Hamilton Project has revealed that hunger in the US has expanded to historically unprecedented proportions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially among households with young children.Reporting on evidence from two surveys, The Hamilton Project shows that by the end of April 2020, more than 20 percent of all US households and over 40 percent of mothers with children under the age of 13 were experiencing food insecurity. These figures are between two and five times greater than they were in 2018, when food insecurity data was last collected.Households and children in the surveys are considered food insecure if a respondent “indicates the following statements were often or sometime true”:
- The food we bought just didn’t last and we didn’t have enough money to get more.
- The children in my household were not eating enough because we just couldn’t afford enough food.
Lauren Bauer, a fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution who specializes in social and safety net policies, wrote in her blog post on Wednesday, “Rates of food insecurity observed in April 2020 are also meaningfully higher than at any point for which there is comparable data” from 2001 to 2018.Further placing the present ability of families to put food on the table in historical context, Bauer writes, “Looking over time, particularly to the relatively small increase in child food insecurity during the Great Recession, it is clear that young children are experiencing food insecurity to an extent unprecedented in modern times.” Bauer explains that the surveys conducted their own national sampling of mothers in late April by asking the same questions used by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in previous food insecurity studies.
Some Communities Are Being Forced to Fight School Closures and Privatization in the Midst of the Pandemic - Since mid-March, public school students in Minnesota have had to stay home because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, according to the state’s governor, Tim Walz, schools will remain closed until the end of this school year, with no guarantee that they will reopen in the fall for anything other than online teaching and learning. This hasn’t stopped the Minneapolis Public Schools from attempting to push forward with a dramatic restructuring plan, known as the Comprehensive District Design. Under this plan, nearly all of the city’s 34,000 public school students and teachers would be reassigned to new schools, beginning in the fall of 2021. The proposal includes the closure of several popular, long-standing magnet school programs, as well as the dismantling of existing community schools in favor of new school configurations. The narrative surrounding the plan is one of crisis and urgency. Advocates for the shake-up, including administrators within the Minneapolis Public Schools, insist the reorganization will not only save money—a key issue for the cash-strapped district—but also ensure access to a “well-rounded education” for all students, regardless of their background.More than half of all district students live in poverty, according to federal guidelines, and many require special education services or English language support. Educational disparities that fall along racial and economic lines are a persistent problem in Minneapolis, and the pursuit of greater equity in achievement is a key argument being used in defense of the plan.The rapid expansion of charter schools has also become a divisive issue in the district, and many strong supporters of the redesign are also proponents of the charter school industry. In a recent interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune, district superintendent Ed Graff insisted that it was necessary to keep moving forward with a comprehensive overhaul because students cannot “afford to wait any longer.” We must act now to reshape the district for future success, Graff argued, even as the coronavirus epidemic continues to spread doubt and uncertainty. Another problem Graff must contend with is an ongoing decline in enrollment. More than a thousand students left the district in the last school year alone, snagging spots either in one of the growing number of charter schools in and around Minneapolis or enrolling in a neighboring district. An exodus of students from the Minneapolis Public Schools means the district is left with aging infrastructure and fewer per-pupil dollars with which to serve all students, especially those with special education needs.
Without in-person classes, many students have essentially gone missing, teachers say - Most of Shasta Looper's fourth-grade class has been in regular contact with the teacher, but about 15% of her students haven't been turning in assignments. And there's one student she hasn't heard from since the Blythe Academy in Greenville, South Carolina, closed in March to limit the spread of the coronavirus. "That one student is still at the forefront of my mind," Looper said. "That's been really difficult, I think, for a lot of teachers. For those kids that you can't reach, you have no idea what they're experiencing." In a survey of about 4,000 South Carolina teachers on April 1, only 17% said they had contacted all of their students. About 21% of the teachers said they had been in contact with less than half of the students in their classes. Based on that survey, state Superintendent Molly Spearman told a panel of leaders that she estimates between 4% and 5% of students – or about 31,000 to 39,000 – have been unaccounted for since public schools closed. Even the students who have made contact with teachers aren't all keeping up with their work, leaving educators to wonder what knowledge students will have retained if and when they return to classrooms in the fall. Patrick Kelly, a teacher and coordinator of professional learning in South Carolina's Richland County who is on the state's education task force, told the group his Advanced Placement students, who have access to the internet, are not all participating every week. "We've got to figure out how do we make this engaging for kids," Kelly said. "Because If we built the best platform in the world but only 40% to 50% of kids participate – I guess 40% to 50% is better than none, but the goal should be 100% of kids." The state Department of Education has told districts not to track attendance while schools are closed.
The pandemic sparked more appreciation for teachers, but will it give them a voice in education and their working conditions? - EPI - This year’s National Teacher Appreciation Week is happening under the unprecedented hardships that the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed on us. The health emergency forced the closing of schools all over the country, sending over 55 million K-12 students and about four million teachers home for the remainder of the school year.But amidst the pain so many are enduring is a bright spot: Some teachers feel the appreciation is deeper than ever before.With so much at stakes in the aftermath of this crisis, this can be an opportunity to turn that appreciation into the fuel that will finally restore the prestige of the teaching profession and improve teachers’ working conditions.Overnight, the pandemic imposed a radical switch to remote teaching and learning that many hoped would be temporary. We soon learned, however, the school closings would last indefinitely as the country coped with the most severe worldwide public health crisis of our lifetimes complete with dramatic economic consequences.With the support from parents and communities, teachers and students are carrying on with their respective endeavors as well as they can. In watching them, we’re all reminded of what learning and teaching entails: the mysteries embedded in each of the subjects, the lectures, the assignments, the projects, the questions, among so many others. But we’ve also realized that teaching goes beyond these day-in-and-day-out activities in the countless moments when we saw teachers go beyond the call of duty. The pandemic has opened many parents’ eyes to the role that teachers play as part of the basic fabric of the safety net—through the provision of school-based supports like meals, health clinics, counseling, and even housing. The results of a recent online survey of about 2,000 parents from OnePoll and Osmo show an increase in appreciation for teachers’ work. The poll found that, “80% have newfound respect for teachers; 77% believe that teachers should be paid more; 69% believe being a teacher is harder than their current job; and 53% will take a greater interest in their child’s education after the stay-at-home mandate concludes.”
US teachers union provides political cover to Trump’s demand for the reopening of schools -The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) issued “A Plan to Safely Reopen America’s Schools and Communities” on April 29 in line with the demands of Wall Street and the Trump administration to reopen business. This initiative in the midst of the crisis amounts to the unions’ indispensable assistance in the government’s policy of forcing people to choose between returning to work at the risk of their lives or facing destitution. Hundreds of walkouts and protests by teachers and other workers are occurring around the world against the premature return to work. Many are beginning to draw profound conclusions on the nature of capitalism, which is imposing increasingly fascistic policies such as “herd immunity” and the normalization of mass death. “A Plan to Safely Reopen” proffers the union’s hand to the Trump administration’s back-to-work policy, which scientists warn will lead to tens, if not hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths. The AFT’s announcement follows Democratic Party presumptive nominee for president Joe Biden’s nearly identically-named column, “My Plan to Safely Reopen America,” in which he aligned himself with the fully bipartisan back-to-work bandwagon. The union’s 20-page report dutifully “focuses on reopening school buildings” so that “parents, who work outside the home, can go to work.” “That is the key to the reopening of the broader economy,” they note. The AFT’s plan centers on “five pillars.” The first calls for maintaining physical distancing until there are 14 consecutive days of declining COVID-positive cases, an endorsement of the official Trump administration policy. Every state currently opening businesses under Trump’s Phase 1 of “Opening Up America” has ignored this toothless two-week mandate. Then the union calls for a series of measures, which the organization knows full well will never be funded. These include: “ramping up the capacity to test, trace and isolate each and every new case”; the deployment of “somewhere between 100,000 and 250,000 contact tracers”; reducing class sizes to 12-15 students to ensure physical distancing; adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) for educators, nurses and staff; daily sanitizing of all schools; hand-washing stations upon entry at schools; additional medical and mental health staffing; and wrap-around services through a community schools model.
KDE asks districts to be flexible when planning for start of 2020-2021 school year - The Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) is asking school districts to be flexible as they consider plans for the start of the next school year during the COVID-19 emergency. Interim Education Commissioner Kevin Brown told superintendents that Gov. Andy Beshear and Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman want to ensure that KDE and local districts are planning for multiple situations that could occur before and after the start of the 2020-2021 school year.Brown says planning is already underway even though there are many unknowns about what the start of a new school year might look like in Kentucky schools.“The good news is we have some time to plan; the bad news is we don’t know exactly what we’re planning for,” Brown said. “We need every district to be nimble and to be able to adjust to what could be a changing public health landscape in the fall.”Brown says Gov. Beshear and Lt. Governor Coleman wants KDE and its districts to consider three possibilities for when the next school year might start:
- An early start, perhaps as early as late July
- A traditional start
- A late start, perhaps after Labor Day
Brown says an early start could let districts begin the year with in-person instruction if a decline in the number of cases of the coronavirus allows it, with the possibility of a suspension of in-person classes if there is a spike in cases.Brown told the superintendents they might want to consider asking their local boards of education to approve multiple calendars to allow for the different scenarios. He says districts should be prepared to adapt to changing circumstances near or after the beginning of the school year.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announces $775m in state budget cuts to education, Medicaid and more - -- Gov. Mike DeWine said Tuesday the state will cut nearly $800 million in spending — most affecting education and health care — to offset the loss of tax revenue stemming from the coronavirus crisis. The cuts include a $300 million reduction in K-12 public-school funding, $210 million from Medicaid spending and $110 million from college and university funding, DeWine said. DeWine said all state government agencies will see their budgets cut, adding up to $100 million, except for the state Department of Corrections, which operates state prisons. As recently as the end of February, the state was running ahead of its estimated revenues by $200 million. But as of the end of April, state revenues now are below estimates by $776.9 million, according to DeWine. Much of the the state’s revenue comes from two sources — income taxes, which are tied to employment, and sales taxes, which are tied to commercial activity. Both have dropped since DeWine closed wide swaths of Ohio’s economy to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The state will not immediately tap its rainy-day fund, which contains $2.7 billion, DeWine said. He said he anticipates that money will be needed in the future. Under the state Constitution, Ohio must balance its budget by the end of each fiscal year, which ends on June 30. But that means Ohio likely will enter next budget year needing to fill another budget hole. “I know I have said it’s raining, but we really don’t want to tap into it just yet,” DeWine said. "This rain is not a passing spring shower. It could be, we don’t really know, but it could be a cold, long lingering storm. We should not use that rainy day fund until we have to.” DeWine said the details of the spending cuts will be coming Wednesday. DeWine’s announcement drew criticism from Policy Matters Ohio, a liberal think-tank. The group said state lawmakers could help close the budget hole by eliminating tax breaks for businesses incorporated as LLCs and other groups. “First and foremost, he should use the rainy day fund. It’s pouring outside. That will help close the budget gap now," Zach Schiller, Policy Matters Ohio’s research director, said in a statement. Education groups issued statements Tuesday expressing concerns about the cuts, although they said they’re awaiting further details.
America's Colleges Awarded $12.5 Billion In COVID-19 Bailout – Who Got It And How Much? - Harvard decided not to apply for their $9 million share of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act - the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, after President Donald Trump brought the issue into the national limelight. Princeton followed suit. The other Ivies are still deciding whether to accept up to $62.9 million in CARES money — despite their collective endowment of $140 billion. However, our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com discovered that these funds are just the tip of the iceberg. We scoured the backend of the U.S. Department of Education website and found the full database: 5,137 colleges and universities that were awarded $12.5 billion in coronavirus relief. None of it has to be paid back. We created an interactive map on a state-by-state basis of the colleges and universities that were allocated the aid. (The institutions still must apply for the funds in order to receive it.) Just click a pin (state) and scroll down to the chart beneath the map to see which college (by name) can receive how much taxpayer money. For example, you’ll find 530 schools in California, 389 in New York, 295 in Texas, 261 in Florida, and 260 in Pennsylvania. The five colleges and universities allocated the most money were Arizona State University ($63.5 million); Penn State ($55 million); Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey ($54.1 million); University of Central Florida ($51.1 million); and Miami Dade College ($49.1 million). Responding to our request for comment, Arizona State applauded and Central Florida was "grateful" for CARES Act funding. Here are five facts you probably didn’t know about the coronavirus bailout of America’s colleges and universities:
- #1. The $350 Billion Club: The 25 universities with the largest endowments were allocated $801.3 million in coronavirus subsidies. These wealthy institutions had $350 billion in their collective endowments. Notre Dame was allocated a $5.8 million share ($8.4 billion endowment). However, the school told us that they aren't going to even apply for the funds. Their share will be returned to the U.S. Treasury Department's general fund. Here are the allocations for some other wealthy schools: Ohio State University $42 million ($3.6 billion endowment); Northwestern University $8.5 million ($9.7 billion endowment); The University of Chicago $6.2 million ($7 billion endowment); and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) $5 million ($13.2 billion endowment).
- #2. Big 10 Conference is #1 – In the battle among the major conferences, the fourteen schools of the Big 10 Conference were allocated the most bailout money ($393 million) – an average of $28 million per institution.
- #3. Worst junior colleges: The 50 worst community colleges scored by WalletHub received $200 million in taxpayer funding. Collectively, these schools had a graduation rate of 12.3 percent (2017-2018). The top 10 worst schools were allocated $66 million despite reporting graduation rates between 4-9 percent. The U.S. taxpayer may want to know why these schools are even allowed to operate.
- #4. Beauty schools called cosmetology colleges: Four-hundred and nine “cosmetology colleges” were allocated $102.7 million in bailout money. Many times these schools charge higher student tuition prices than established universities. It’s a phenomenon whereby taxpayer dollars – Pell grants and student loans – drive up the cost of education.
- #5. Red states vs. blue states: Our auditors found that colleges and universities located in the thirty states that voted for President Trump in 2016 were allocated $6.8 billion. Institutions located in states that did not vote for Trump were allocated $5.4 billion.
Stimulus Aid Leaves Out Millions of Student-Loan Borrowers – WSJ - Congress threw a financial lifeline to student-loan borrowers as part of its $2 trillion economic-rescue package. But millions of borrowers were left out. The law, intended to help Americans weather the coronavirus-induced economic crisis, provides for a six-month suspension of student-loan payments, interest free. In a technical quirk, the law applies only to borrowers whose loans are “held,” or owned, by the U.S. government. Of the federal program’s 43 million borrowers, about 7 million have loans that are ineligible for relief because they are held by banks, credit unions or other private entities, Education Department data show. A vestige of a guaranteed-loan program that Congress ended in 2010, they owe $170 billion out of $1.5 trillion in all federal student debt. Many borrowers have been shocked to learn their loans aren’t covered. Most frustrating to them is they had no say in which federal program they used—that decision was made by their colleges and universities. “It’s very arbitrary,” said Emily Nevill, a 36-year-old librarian whose $8,600 in federal loans are commercially owned and thus aren’t covered by the Cares Act. Her husband’s loans, however, are covered. Borrowers like Ms. Nevill can take advantage of the stimulus law by refinancing into new federal loans, but many aren’t aware of that option. They would lose one or more months of relief by the time they refinanced. And for many, their interest rates would go up and the repayment period would be extended, driving up their overall costs. Their predicament offers a lesson in the Byzantine world of federal student-loan policy. For a half-century, Congress has repeatedly tweaked the program in ways that leave some borrowers better off than others. Those changes are often determined by political maneuvering in Congress. When the stimulus law was being drafted, congressional Democrats initially wanted to reduce every federal borrower’s balance by at least $10,000. Republicans argued that was too generous and instead pushed for a pause in payments. In a compromise, the two sides agreed on giving borrowers a six-month pause, interest free. As lawmakers rushed to pass the stimulus package, they focused on the most expedient path—to cover borrowers whose loans are on the government’s books, bypassing any need to negotiate how much to compensate banks for the commercially held federal loans, aides said.
"The Squad" Urges Pelosi To Include "One-Time Universal $30k Student-Loan Cancellation" In Next Relief Bill - A group of Democrats - whose mostly white, middle-class, college-educated supporters who derive most of their understanding of contemporary politics and the economy from memes - is pushing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy to include a "universal, one-time, student loan debt cancellation of at least $30,000 per borrower in the next round of COVID-19 relief legislation." So-called Democratic socialists love to drone on about how policies like universal health-care and student loan forgiveness are "popular" (that is, according to several questionably worded surveys), but the truth is, the overwhelming majority of Americans aren't currently paying down student debt. Fewer than 45 million Americans - that's less than one-third of working-age adults - are student loan borrowers, and they share nearly $1.5 trillion in debt. Reps. Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Alma Adams and 28 other lawmakers have all co-signed a letter urging the leadership to turn on the money spigot that only rewards Americans who are already mostly white, mostly middle class and mostly fine.We'd love to hear the explanation why they're calling for the forgiveness of student debt, not any other types of consumer debt, like mortgage debt (for homes) or credit card debt (for food...and all those vacations you couldn't afford).Simply forgiving the loans would do nothing to change a system that produces over-indebted students (and one component of changing that system needs to be consumers taking responsibility for their choices and thinking twice before signing up to get that masters in anthropology, or comparative lit, or gender studies).President Trump said earlier this afternoon that he couldn't be sure when Congress would get around to passing another coronavirus relief bill, or even if there would be another bill.But that didn't stop Ilhan Omar from hopping right up on that soapbox to talk about how we should just hand out money to all Americans in perpetuity - except landlords, because Karl Marx said they're evil - just keep the money spigot running until a vaccine is ready and available for all.
Betsy DeVos sued for seizing student borrowers’ paychecks in violation of the CARES Act: “We don’t care. We don’t have to.” -Betsy DeVos, President Trump's Education Secretary, doesn't just think she's above the law. She IS above the law.A few days ago, the National Consumer Law Center filed a class-action suit against Betsy DeVos and the U.S. Department of Education asking a federal judge to stop DeVos and DOE from garnishing student borrowers' paycheck in violation of the CARES Act. Congress passed the CARES Act, you may recall, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, and the law explicitly put a temporary moratorium on collection efforts against student debtors who are in default.According to the NCLC, the Department of Education, either directly or indirectly, kept on garnishing paychecks in defiance of federal law. Elizabeth Barber, the lead plaintiff, makes $12.89 per hour working as a home health care aide. She says DOE garnished her paycheck, even though the CARES Act gave her a six-month reprieve from making student-loan payments.This isn't the first time DeVos and her DOE cowboys have been accused of ignoring the law. Just last fall, Judge Sallie Kim held DeVos and the Department of Education in contempt for failing to stop collection efforts against student borrowers who had attended one of the Corinthian Colleges. Judge Kim had enjoined DOE from trying to collect from those students, but the agency did not abide by her order. Judge Kim fined DOE $100,000 for its wrongful collection efforts.DeVos reminds me of Ernestine, Lily Thomlin's telephone-operator character in those Saturday Night Life sketches from the 1970s. When people complained about their telephone service, Ernestine's response was, "We don't care. We don't have to. We're the pho ne company."Betsy DeVos apparently doesn't care about downtrodden student-loan debtors. When participants in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program applied for student-debt relief, her agency denied 99 percent of the applications.
We Found and Tested 47 Old Drugs That Might Treat the Coronavirus: Results Show Promising Leads and a Whole New Way to Fight COVID-19 -The more researchers know about how the coronavirus attaches, invades and hijacks human cells, the more effective the search for drugs to fight it. That was the idea my colleagues and I hoped to be true when we began building a map of the coronavirus two months ago. The map shows all of the coronavirus proteins and all of the proteins found in the human body that those viral proteins could interact with.In theory, any intersection on the map between viral and human proteins is a place where drugs could fight the coronavirus. But instead of trying to develop new drugs to work on these points of interaction, we turned to the more than 2,000 unique drugs already approved by the FDA for human use. We believed that somewhere on this long list would be a few drugs or compounds that interact with the very same human proteins as the coronavirus.We were right.Our multidisciplinary team of researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, called the QCRG, identified 69 existing drugs and compounds with potential to treat COVID-19. A month ago, we began shipping boxes of these drugs off to Institut Pasteur in Paris and Mount Sinai in New York to see if they do in fact fight the coronavirus. In the last four weeks, we have tested 47 of these drugs and compounds in the lab against live coronavirus. I’m happy to report we’ve identified some strong treatment leads and identified two separate mechanisms for how these drugs affect SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our findings werepublished on April 30 in the journal Nature.
NIH clinical trial shows Remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19 | National Institutes of Health - Hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 and lung involvement who received remdesivir recovered faster than similar patients who received placebo, according to a preliminary data analysis from a randomized, controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which began on February 21. The trial (known as the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial, or ACTT), sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is the first clinical trial launched in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19. An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) overseeing the trial met on April 27 to review data and shared their interim analysis with the study team. Based upon their review of the data, they noted that remdesivir was better than placebo from the perspective of the primary endpoint, time to recovery, a metric often used in influenza trials. Recovery in this study was defined as being well enough for hospital discharge or returning to normal activity level. Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).
Doctors lambaste federal process for distributing Covid-19 drug remdesivir - STAT News. - Hospitals and physicians around the country are sharply criticizing the federal government for the uneven and opaque way it is distributing its supply of the Covid-19 drug remdesivir.The experimental drug received an emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration last week, after preliminary data from a clinical trial showed that it reduced how long it took hospitalized Covid-19 patients to recover. Now, as the drug’s producer, Gilead Sciences, tries to ramp up production, the U.S. government is starting to distribute the limited number of vials that aren’t needed for ongoing research, so that patients can start to see the benefit outside of clinical trials.About two dozen hospitals are believed to have been chosen to receive the drug so far, but clinicians told STAT it is unclear why some medical centers were chosen to receive coveted doses while others weren’t — and who is making those decisions in the first place.“In my opinion, and I think in the opinion of many of my colleagues, there is a complete lack of transparency about how this decision is being made and who is making it,” said Daniel Kaul, an infectious disease physician at the University of Michigan. His hospital’s pharmacy department informed him that their center wouldn’t be getting any doses of remdesivir after being in contact with the drug’s private distributor, AmerisourceBergen, earlier on Wednesday. “Those of us on the frontlines treating people with Covid-19 need to know what the criteria are and where this drug is going to be available and why those places were selected,” he went on.“All of us want to make sure limited resources are used in the most efficient fashion. … The government entity making this decision should reveal itself and it should state its criteria.” Even medical centers chosen to receive the drug were in the dark. “I legitimately do not have any insight into how hospitals were selected,” said Paul Biddinger, director of Massachusetts General Hospital’s Center for Disaster Medicine and one of the leaders of the hospital’s pandemic response. On Tuesday evening, he said, the hospital’s pharmacy got confirmation that it would receive enough remdesivir for about 170 patients. He had heard that three other medical centers in the state also got allocations. Most other Massachusetts hospitals — including some that were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 — would receive none.
GOP lawmaker seeks review of Harvard study tying air pollution to coronavirus deaths - A Maryland lawmaker is asking for a government review of a Harvard University public health study linking air pollution with coronavirus death. The widely reported April study found parts of the country with a higher prevalence of fine particulate matter, or soot, had an increase in coronavirus deaths. While the researchers initially found that an increase in air pollution of 1 gram per cubic meter of fine particulate matter led to as much as a 15-percent spike in death rates among patients in those areas, it updated its study about two weeks later, dropping the figure to an 8-percent increase in the death rate. Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) wrote a letter Friday asking both the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review the study. “I request that you and/or your agencies’ appropriate advisory bodies undertake a review of the Harvard study and the current state of understanding regarding the relationship between air quality and Covid-19,” Harris wrote. Harris said in an ideal world, a peer review of the study would be performed, “but the urgent and rapidly evolving nature of the pandemic is ill-served by a months-long journal review process.” HHS did not respond to request for comment, but Harvard said it had updated the study to account for new information. "As public health professionals at the time of a pandemic, we are continuing to update our analyses accounting for the most recent number of deaths. Also since the release of the previous report on April 5, we have accounted for a larger number of confounding factors," the university said in an email. Harris’s letter said the review of the study is needed after environmental groups referenced it when suing the EPA for suspending enforcement of pollution monitoring due to coronavirus. EPA did not commit to reviewing the study. “We are reviewing the letter and will respond through proper channels.Drawing conclusions from a study without peer review and with insufficient data is irresponsible and paints a distorted scientific picture,” the agency said in a statement.
The False Dawn of Ending Coronavirus Lockdowns - Yves Smith --We’ve pointed out that too many people don’t want to face up to the fact that conflict between the inevitable force of the coronavirus and the seeming immovable object of our social and economic systems, the coronavirus is in charge. That won’t change until we have a vaccine, which will either take quite a while or will never be attained, or we have treatments that reduce the severity of the disease.This is a pretty depressing state of affairs, and most people are not wired to confront depressing truths. Even yours truly, who has a dour nature and is also in a lot of ways not badly impacted by the lockdowns (once you factor out how it’s increased the difficulty of dealing with the care of a 92 year old), is feeling pretty down. It seems to be mourning for the loss of the way things used to be. But it appears instead that many Americans are resorting to magical thinking, that if we just end the lockdowns, things will go back to status quo ante save some nursing home residents croaking early. That’s just not happening. The results of a survey of 23,000 people in 50 states and the District:Members of both parties think a wait of at least another month in relaxing restrictions is in order.The lack of a meaningful decline in infection and death rates has registered on the the great unwashed American public. Bloomberg reported that cases rose 2% over the past day, and tried to put a cheery spin that that was lower than the average daily increase of 2.6% over the previous week. But plateauing or only growing slowly from a pretty high level isn’t an happy story. Lambert featured this chart yesterday: And Americans are getting more evidence that the virus won’t be leaving us any time soon. And there’s every reason to expect infection rates to rise. The Hill: New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies. The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of COVID-19….
Coronavirus started infecting people globally late last year: study - The coronavirus has been circulating among people since late 2019 and appears to have experienced a highly rapid spread after the first infection, according to a new genetic analysis of 7,600 patients around the world. Researchers in Britain wrote in a report published Tuesday in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution that they examined samples taken at different times and from different places, concluding that the virus first began infecting people late last year. The researchers found evidence of quick spread but found no indication that it is becoming any easier to transmit the virus, which was first identified in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province, in December 2019. "The virus is changing, but this in itself does not mean it's getting worse," genetics researcher Francois Balloux of the University College London Genetics Institute told CNN. The study indicated that infections in the U.S. and Europe specifically could have occurred weeks or months before the first official cases were reported in January and February, making it more difficult to find “Patient Zero” in any particular area. The findings shot down hopes from some doctors that the virus had in fact been circulating under the radar for months before it burst onto the scene, which would have indicated that there could be some immunity already built up. But Balloux told CNN at most only 10 percent of the population has been exposed to the coronavirus. TAGS CORONAVIRUS
Was Sundance a “First Petri Dish” of Coronavirus in the States? On Jan. 27, actress Ashley Jackson felt the first symptoms of a nasty bug — fever, clammy skin, fatigue and shortness of breath. Given her current locale — Park City — she chalked it up to altitude sickness and toughed out her final day at the Sundance Film Festival, where she had attended the world premiere of Blast Beat, a family drama in which she co-stars, as well as a dizzying array of parties and lounges. The next day, the 20-year-old college student flew home to Atlanta, just as more intense symptoms began to emerge, including sore throat, aches and pains and a cough so violent, her neck swelled. Within 24 hours, she made her first of multiple visits to an urgent care facility or emergency room and was diagnosed with the flu based on her condition (though no flu test was given at the time). Like many who make the annual trek to the indie film mecca, Jackson left Sundance far worse off than when she entered. After all, the quaint mountain oasis transforms into a petri dish as some 120,000 festivalgoers from around the world huddle in crowded movie theaters during cold and flu season. In recent years, the festival's organizers have placed an emphasis on attracting international filmmakers, and this year was no exception, with a lineup of 118 feature-length films representing 27 countries. Industryites long have dubbed any illness caught while visiting the 10-day festival as "the Sundance flu," a byproduct of frigid temperatures, late-night partying and all that handshaking, in which everyone becomes an unknowing vector for spreading germs. But there was something different about Sundance 2020. A swath of attendees, including festival regulars and at least one high-profile actor, became sicker than ever before, leading some to later believe they had early, undocumented cases of COVID-19.
Coronavirus Hijacks the Body From Head to Toe, Perplexing Doctors – WSJ -Garvon Russell was having trouble breathing when he arrived sick with Covid-19 at a New York City emergency room. By the time he left the hospital two weeks later, he had battled the new coronavirus all over his body.His lungs were inflamed, their tiny air sacs filled with fluid that made it hard for oxygen to get into his bloodstream. His kidneys failed with Mr. Russell in septic shock from his infection.Then, when it looked like he had turned the corner, his bedside nurse noticed his left leg was swollen. Doctors found a blood clot in a deep vein.Mr. Russell, a 67-year-old retiree, said he feels lucky to have survived: “It’s nothing to play with.”As the number of Covid-19 patients grows, doctors are learning its damage can extend well beyond the lungs, where infection can lead to pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, the sometimes fatal condition Mr. Russell had. The disease can also affect the brain, kidneys, heart, vascular and digestive system. Some patients have sudden strokes, pulmonary embolisms or heart-attack symptoms. Others have kidney failure or inflammation of the gut.Infection can affect the nervous system, causing seizures, hallucinations or a loss of smell and taste. It may affect pregnancies, though the science is nascent: The placenta of a patient who miscarried during her second trimester tested positive for the virus and showed signs of inflammation, according to a paper published April 30 in the Journal of the American Medical Association.The virus’s strange effects go beyond anything doctors say they usually see with other viral infections. “It seems to strike so many systems,” said Maya Rao, a nephrologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York who is treating Covid-19 patients with acute kidney failure. “We don’t understand who gets it.”Doctors are trying to understand what about the infection predisposes patients to so many complications. The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases world-wide topped 3.7 million as of Thursday morning with roughly 260,000 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. accounted for more than 1.2 million cases and over 73,000 deaths.“Sometimes with very severe infections you can see things similar to this,” said Magdy Selim, a neurologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, who is treating Covid-19 patients who have had strokes. “But not all this combination of things in one patient. These are really sick patients.”Some patients are young and otherwise healthy. Some children, who generally don’t get very sick with Covid-19, have been hospitalized with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease—an inflammatory condition typically affecting young children—with acute inflammation in their hearts and intestines.The extreme inflammation that is a hallmark of the most severe Covid-19 cases is likely at play, doctors said. Inflammation can also cause blood clots, which doctors believe may be a common denominator spanning several complications. Physicians describe stunningly extensive and swift clotting leading to the strokes and pulmonary embolisms seen in even otherwise young, healthy patients.
‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19 - Science - “ON 19 MARCH, I SUDDENLY HAD A HIGH FEVER and a stabbing headache. My skull and hair felt very painful, which was bizarre. I didn’t have a cough at the time, but still, my first reflex was: I have it. I kept working—I’m a workaholic—but from home. I tested positive for COVID-19, as I suspected. I put myself in isolation in the guest room at home. But the fever didn’t go away. I had never been seriously ill and have not taken a day of sick leave the past 10 years. I live a pretty healthy life and walk regularly. The only risk factor for corona is my age—I’m 71. I’m an optimist, so I thought it would pass. But on 1 April, a doctor friend advised me to get a thorough examination because the fever and especially the exhaustion were getting worse and worse. It turned out I had severe oxygen deficiency, although I still wasn’t short of breath. Lung images showed I had severe pneumonia, typical of COVID-19, as well as bacterial pneumonia. I had to be hospitalized, although I tested negative for the virus in the meantime. I was concerned I would be put on a ventilator immediately because I had seen publications showing it increases your chance of dying. I was pretty scared, but fortunately, they just gave me an oxygen mask first and that turned out to work. So, I ended up in an isolation room in the antechamber of the intensive care department. You’re tired, so you’re resigned to your fate. You completely surrender to the nursing staff. You live in a routine from syringe to infusion and you hope you make it. For a week I balanced between heaven and Earth, on the edge of what could have been the end. I was released from the hospital after a long week. I traveled home by public transport. I wanted to see the city, with its empty streets, its closed pubs, and its surprisingly fresh air. There was nobody on the street—a strange experience. I couldn’t walk properly because my muscles were weakened from lying down and from the lack of movement, which is not a good thing when you’re treating a lung condition. At home, I cried for a long time. I also slept badly for a while. The risk that something could still go seriously wrong keeps going through your head. One week after I was discharged, I became increasingly short of breath. I had to go to the hospital again, but fortunately, I could be treated on an outpatient basis. I turned out to have an organizing pneumonia-induced lung disease, caused by a so-called cytokine storm. It’s a result of your immune defense going into overdrive. Many people do not die from the tissue damage caused by the virus, but from the exaggerated response of their immune system, which doesn’t know what to do with the virus. I’m still under treatment for that, with high doses of corticosteroids that slow down the immune system. If I had had that storm along with the symptoms of the viral outbreak in my body, I wouldn’t have survived. I had atrial fibrillation, with my heart rate going up to 170 beats per minute; that also needs to be controlled with therapy, particularly to prevent blood clotting events, including stroke. This is an underestimated ability of the virus: It can probably affect all the organs in our body. Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives.
Coronavirus Is Found in Semen of Covid-19 Patients – WSJ - The new coronavirus has been found in the semen of infected individuals, according to Chinese researchers, raising the prospect that the virus could be sexually transmitted.The study, other researchers warn, also raises many questions. It doesn’t explain how much viral load was present in the sperm; nor did it examine whether the virus can be transmitted through sexual activity. The study, conducted at China’s Shangqiu Municipal Hospital, was described in a research letter published Thursday by the JAMA Network of medical journals.It is the first to detect the virus in reproductive fluids. Further research is needed to understand whether safe-sex practices should be part of Covid-19-prevention efforts, say medical experts who read the paper.“These are intriguing results,” said John Brooks, chief medical officer for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 response. But it doesn’t mean that semen is infectious, he noted. “When we’re looking everywhere for this virus, we’re finding its footprints in different places in the body—whether that’s a trace or if it’s a big foot is very hard to say.”No known U.S. infections have spread through sexual contact, Dr. Brooks said. Some other viruses, including mosquito-borne Zika, can spread by sexual contact.In the study, Chinese researchers said semen from six out of 38 Covid-19 survivors tested positive for the virus. Four out of the six individuals were in “the acute stage of infection” at the time of semen collection, and the remaining two “had achieved clinical recovery,” according to the paper. Later, the study said those two individuals “were recovering,” confusing some clinicians. The authors didn’t respond to requests for comment.“If they were recovering, it’s less problematic than if they had fully recovered,” said David Baud, the head of obstetrics at Switzerland’s Lausanne University Hospital. Sick and bedridden individuals are unlikely to have a sexual drive so the risk of transmission is low. “You’re more likely to get it through their cough droplets,” he said. Clinicians are also divided over what constitutes recovery because data on Covid-19 progression is scant and knowledge about the virus that causes it is swiftly changing. “What is recovery? That is a million-dollar question” the study doesn’t answer, said David Shin, a urologist focusing on male reproduction at the New Jersey-based Hackensack University Medical Center.
Why You Can’t Always Trust Your Coronavirus Antibody Test Results Pro Publica - Many people across the country experienced COVID-19 symptoms but could not get a test to confirm if they actually had the virus. Now some are looking to a different kind of coronavirus test for answers. Antibody tests are meant to recognize a past infection. Many of these have hit the market in recent weeks and are being offered at local clinics. Officials have touted the tests as crucial for reopening the economy and developing public health strategies to contain the virus. But there are still questions about how accurate they are. And even with a very good test, it's possible to test positive for antibodies even when you don't actually have them. Watch our new video to learn why.
Small-Area Projections of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States - Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused a pandemic that has resulted in symptomatic infection in nearly 700,000 individuals with nearly 36,000 deaths in the United States by April 17, 2020. Current models project approximately 200,000-300,000 deaths in the United States due to SARS-CoV-2 in the next few months. These models, however, project for large areas, using a fixed R estimated from national data, do not consider city characteristics (e.g. population density, commuter traffic) that could impact transmissibility, and don’t directly measure the effect of social distancing. In addition, these models do not consider time-varying exposures such as temperature and humidity that might affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission. There is an urgent need to project how SARS-CoV-2 transmission will occur in the coming months more selectively across US cities that are very different geographically and with respect to the underlying risks of their populations. Our objective is to project the trajectory of the COVID- 19 epidemic in major US cities by assuming that R is not fixed, will vary significantly across the country, and will vary specifically in relationship to temperature, humidity, and social distancing strategies. In conjunction with other national models, these data can provide complementary information to better inform decisions to reopen local communities in the weeks ahead.
Coronavirus R0 Value Explained - The New York Times - World leaders and public health experts are poised to spend the coming months or years obsessed with a variable known as R0. Pronounced “R-naught,” it represents the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case.In other words, if R0 is 2.5, then one person with the disease is expected to infect, on average, 2.5 others.An R0 below 1 suggests that the number of cases is shrinking, possibly allowing societies to open back up. An R0 above 1 indicates that the number of cases is growing, perhaps necessitating renewed lockdowns or other measures. But R0 is messier than it might look. It is built on hard science, forensic investigation, complex mathematical models — and often a good deal of guesswork. It can vary radically from place to place and day to day, pushed up or down by local conditions and human behavior.Yet for all its vagaries, R0 is expected to shape our world in the coming months and possibly years as governments and health experts treat it as the closest thing to a compass in navigating the pandemic. What follows is a simple guide to how this metric works, why it matters and how to think about it.The term is borrowed from the study of demographics, where it is used to describe birthrates.R refers to reproduction and 0 to the zeroth generation, as in patient zero. Together, they are typically called the basic reproduction number.It is calculated from innate features of a disease, like how easily it jumps from one person to the next, along with elements of human behavior that shape how often sick and susceptible people will come into contact. The resulting number is meant to help model an outbreak’s possible trajectory.Say that 1,000 people have a seasonal flu whose R0 is estimated at 1.3.They would be expected to infect 1,300 people. That second generation would go on to infect another 1,690. That can add up. By the 10th generation, about 30 days time, 42,621 people would have caught the flu.But any R0 is just an estimate and, epidemiologists stress, an imperfect one.A paper published last year in Emerging Infectious Diseases, an academic journal, described the metric as important but warned that it can be “easily misrepresented, misinterpreted and misapplied.”There is no consensus for how to measure it. Much of the underlying math relies, by necessity, on educated guesses and on human factors that can change unpredictably. For this reason, most diseases are given a range, rather than a single figure. SARS is usually described as having an R0 of 2 to 5 — an enormous difference.New figures are coming out all the time. But, generally, studies now estimate that the pathogen that causes Covid-19 has an R0 of 2 to 2.5. That’s significantly higher than the flu and within lower-end ranges for SARS, another coronavirus.
The US just reported its deadliest day Sat. for coronavirus patients as states reopen, according to WHO - The United States just had its deadliest day on record due to the coronavirus as states across the country begin to ease restrictions meant to curb the spread of the virus, according to data published by the World Health Organization. The U.S. saw 2,909 people die of Covid-19 in 24 hours, according to the data,which was collected as of 4 a.m. ET on Friday. That's the highest daily Covid-19 death toll in the U.S. yet, based on a CNBC analysis of the WHO's daily Covid-19 situation reports. Before May 1, the next highest U.S. daily death toll was 2,471 reported on April 23, according to the WHO. State officials have previously warned that data on Covid-19 deaths are difficult to analyze because they often represent patients who became ill and were hospitalized weeks ago. The country's deadliest day comes as state officials weigh reopening parts of the economy and easing stay-at-home orders. Public health officials and epidemiologists have warned that as the public grows fatigued by restrictions and businesses reopen, the virus could spread rapidly throughout communities that have yet to experience a major epidemic.Protesters in at least 10 states on Friday demanded that the government lift stay-at-home orders and other emergency measures put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Among the states that saw protests are California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Tennessee and Washington.Dozens of states have unveiled reopening plans and several, including Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas, have already begun to allow nonessential retailers to reopen. New York state, which has reported more than 27% of all confirmed cases in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, has borne the brunt of the U.S. outbreak so far. The state has reported at least 24,039 of the country's 65,173 Covid-19 deaths, according to Hopkins.The toll of the deadliest day of Covid-19 in the U.S. rivals that of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, which claimed the lives of 2,973 people in one day, according to a government commission. The WHO data differs from data collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which does not report historical daily Covid-19 deaths. The CDC's site says that 2,349 people died in the U.S. of Covid-19 on May 1. However, the agency warns that its data might not be complete. CDC spokeswoman Kate Grusich told CNBC that the agency's data is "validated through a confirmation process with jurisdictions." The CDC warns that all data right now is "provisional" and the agency might not have a more accurate count until December of next year.
May 4 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results --The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day sometime in May according to Dr. Fauci - and that would probably be sufficient for test and trace. There were 231,812 test results reported over the last 24 hours (the number of tests yesterday were revised up). This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.2% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push the percentage positive below 5%. (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).
Could the summer bring an end to COVID-19? - Like some other respiratory viruses such as the flu, is there a chance that the new coronavirus will spread less as temperatures increase? A new study has found that the new coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, didn't spread as efficiently in warmer and more humid regions of the world as it did in colder areas. Though the early analysis, published in the journal Social Science Research Network, is still under review, it provides a glimpse into what we might expect in the warmer months to come. Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel, both from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, analyzed global cases of the disease caused by the virus, COVID-19, and found that 90% of the infections occurred in areas that are between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 17 degrees Celsius) and with an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 grams per cubic meter (g/m3). (Absolute humidity is defined by how much moisture is in the air, regardless of temperature.) In countries with an average temperature greater than 64.4 F (18 C) and an absolute humidity greater than 9 g/m3, the number of COVID-19 cases is less than 6% of the global cases. This suggests "that the transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been less efficient in warmer humid climate so far," the authors wrote. Humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas, they wrote.But that doesn't mean that when summer rolls around, social distancing will be obsolete and people will once again pack into bars and concerts like sardines.For most of North America and Europe, the effect of humidity on the spread of the coronavirus would be negligible until June, when levels start to increase beyond 9 g/m3, the authors wrote. Still, with over 10,000 cases of COVID-19 being reported in regions with average temperatures of 18 degrees C (64.4 degrees F) after March 15, the role of warmer temperatures in slowing the spread might be observed only at much higher temperatures.
Tennessee health commissioner blocks release of data on likely COVID-19 deaths - As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand, the importance of testing for the disease and providing public data to give as clear a picture as possible of the spread of the disease is greater than ever. However, it is becoming clear this critical information is being suppressed in the United States as state governments push forward with plans to reopen their economies. Testing of both the living and dead for the virus is the only way to accurately determine the course of the pandemic and the success or failure of social distancing measures and other efforts to combat the disease. Both South Korea and China have shown how aggressive testing, mandatory shelter-in-place and maintaining social distance could identify and curb the spread of COVID-19. “We need to have the testing available because the big question now with COVID-19 is the denominator [the number representing a part of the whole]—of anything,” Dr. Alex Williamson of the College of American Pathologists told ABC News. “How many people get it? How many people recover? How many are hospitalized? How many died? We don’t know the true denominator. More testing is the most important thing we need to do.” Other studies, including one from the Yale School of Public Health, indicates that some states may have missed as much as two to three times the number of COVID-19 deaths reported. Because the virus can attack various organs, the cause of an organ failure might be overlooked. But in Tennessee, where residents face a greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death than most other states—with more than 13,000 confirmed infections and 200 deaths—the numbers are exactly what the state’s top health official doesn’t want anyone to know. Tennessee Department of Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey has refused to release figures on what she termed “probable” deaths from COVID-19 where symptoms were present but no test was done. These are termed by many health officials and researchers as “epidemiologically-linked cases” and defined as “cases where public health epidemiologists have determined that infection is highly likely because a person exhibited symptoms and had close contact with someone who tested positive.” The CDC has urged states to look for, document and report just such cases. But Piercey apparently thinks releasing this data is a waste of time, characterizing probable cases as “a mixed bag.” “Some of those pan out to be actual cases or some of them don’t,” Piercey told reporters at a press conference last week. “We collect that information and have actually had significant discussion on whether or not to post that information. Have no problem doing it. We just don’t see that it adds a lot of value until we actually have a confirmed case or not. ... I don’t have suspicion that our case count is off.” But health experts disagree. “Under-counting deaths in this particular epidemic is happening all over,” Dr. Daniel Lopez-Acuna, an epidemiologist and former top World Health Organization official, who spent 30 years at the organization, told ABC News. “It’s almost inevitable.”
Unhappy with Dr. Amy Acton, Ohio House moves to limit health director’s power -- The Repository - Canton, OH - Republican lawmakers have introduced an amendment that would limit any stay-at-home order issued by the Ohio Department of Health to 14 days. If the department wanted to extend the order beyond those two weeks, it would need the approval of an existing bipartisan committee called the Joint Committee on Agency Rule Review made up of five representatives and five senators.“The joint committee shall determine the period of the extension, if any,” according to the amendment.A House committee is scheduled to vote on the amendment Wednesday morning -- potentially setting up a vote by the full House on Wednesday afternoon.Gov. Mike DeWine and Ohio Director of Health Dr. Amy Acton issued the first “stay-at-home” health order March 23 and have extended a revised version until the end of May in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus. DeWine and Acton have both called the orders necessary, but many members of the governor’s own party have expressed disagreement, saying the number of deaths in the Buckeye State don’t justify the economic hardships being born by businesses and residents who are out of work. They’ve been calling on the governor to reopen the state faster.House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, recently released a harsh statement, saying his members have felt “disrespected” and ignored by the DeWine administration.Ohio lawmakers aren’t the only state legislators looking to limit the powers of their governors and health directors.Republicans in Michigan introduced bills in late April that would strip away the powers of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and potentially reverse her latest stay-at-home order. And Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin have asked their state supreme court to end Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’s authority to keep businesses and schools closed through May.
Over half of workforce at Tyson plant in Iowa tests positive for coronavirus - More than half of the workforce at a Tyson Foods pork processing plant in Perry, Iowa, has tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The Iowa Department of Public Health reported on Tuesday that a total of 730 workers at the plant had contracted the virus, representing 58 percent of its staff, according to local news reports. The department also noted that more than 1,600 workers at four meatpacking plants across the state had suffered infections. The figures included test results from three separate Tyson meat plants. Outside of Perry, 444 employees at a plant in Waterloo reportedly tested positive for COVID-19. Roughly 220 workers at a Columbus Junction plant, or 26 percent of its staff, tested positive for the virus. Meatpacking plants have emerged as major hot spots for coronavirus outbreaks in the U.S., prompting growing concerns about worker safety and the possibility of food shortages. Nearly 900 workers at one Tyson plant in Indiana reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 last month. A Smithsfield Foods plant in South Dakota shut down operations for more than two weeks after more than 800 people tested positive for the virus. Tyson Foods said in a statement on Monday that it expects to continue to "face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities" amid the pandemic. The company last month temporarily closed its plant in Perry after seeing a surge in reported COVID-19 cases, The Des Moines Register reported. The plant underwent a "deep cleaning" before reopening earlier this week, Tyson spokesman Gary Mickelson told the newspaper. Mickelson added that every worker returning to its facilities will be tested. Employees who have contracted the virus will be required to remain on sick leave until health officials say they are safe to return to work, he said. President Trump has pushed for keeping processors of beef, pork and poultry open despite concerns about the health conditions in the facilities. He signed an executive order last week designating them as critical infrastructure and compelling them to stay open.
San Francisco study reveals 90% of people who tested positive for coronavirus had been leaving home to go to work -Ninety percent of people who tested positive for coronavirus in San Francisco's Mission District were still leaving their homes to go to work, a new study found. Researchers from the University of California - San Francisco, launched a broad testing effort in the Mission District last month in hopes of forming a comprehensive picture of how COVID-19 is spreading within the neighborhood.Results released this week revealed that 2.1 percent of the 4,160 people tested were positive for COVID-19. Among the positive individuals, 90 percent had 'no capability of working from home', according to lead researcher Dr Diane Havlir, chief of the UCSF Division of HIV, Infection, and Global Disease at San Francisco General. were frontline workers, they had to work outside of the home, either that or they were furloughed or unemployed,' Havlir told KCBS.
Inmates at Michigan prisons exposed to COVID-19 in unsanitary conditions - The COVID-19 virus is spreading rapidly through Michigan’s prison system. As of May 2, almost 2,000 inmates have tested positive with 41 prisoners succumbing to the virus. Additionally, 278 staff tested positive with two deaths, creating the risk of further spread through the surrounding communities. A recent study by the ACLU predicts an additional 100,000 deaths in the US prison system alone if the country’s massive prison population is not significantly reduced. As with other state and federal facilities, Michigan’s prisons have become incubators for the coronavirus. Inmates are forced to live in unsanitary conditions where social distancing is impossible. Particularly troubling is the situation at Lakeland Correctional Facility in Coldwater, Michigan, where more than half of the population is elderly. Out of 1,400 inmates at the facility, 791 tested positive with 14 deaths. A class action lawsuit has been filed by prisoners against the Michigan Department of Corrections (MDOC) for its insufficient response to the virus, violating prisoner’s Eight Amendment rights to be free from cruel and unusual punishment. The lawsuit states, “Despite the ticking time bomb that COVID-19 represents, MDOC has failed to implement necessary or adequate policies and practices throughout its prisons.” Wanda Bertram of the Prison Policy Initiative stated, “It’s the duty of every state to recognize that a prison sentence shouldn’t become a death sentence just because of a pandemic.”
May 6 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress, More Needed - From NPR: U.S. Coronavirus Testing Still Falls Short. How's Your State Doing? One prominent research group, Harvard's Global Health Institute, proposes that the U.S. should be doing more than 900,000 tests per day as a country. This projection, released Thursday, is a big jump from its earlier projection of testing need, which had been between 500,000 and 600,000 daily. Harvard's testing estimate increased, says Ashish Jha, director of the Global Health Institute, because the latest modeling shows that the outbreak in the United States is worse than projected earlier. "Just in the last few weeks, all of the models have converged on many more people getting infected and many more people [dying]," he says. The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day sometime in May according to Dr. Fauci - and that might be enough. But the US might need even more tests according to Dr. Jha. There were 318,720 test results reported over the last 24 hours (the number of tests yesterday were revised up). This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.7% (red line). The US probably needs enough tests to push the percentage positive below 5%. (probably much lower based on testing in New Zealand).
Gallup, New Mexico locked down to control spread of coronavirus --The coronavirus crisis continues to spiral out of control on the Navajo Nation as the city of Gallup in northwest New Mexico was placed on lockdown on Friday under the state’s Riot Control Act. The restrictions began on Friday at 12:00 p.m. and have been extended to Thursday at 12:00 p.m., with no one being allowed to travel into or out of the city of 22,000. The crisis in Gallup is a preview of the situation that small towns across America will face as states continue to ease social distancing restrictions and open their economies. All roads into Gallup are closed and nonessential traffic is being routed around the city by the New Mexico National Guard and state police. Traffic routed around Gallup, including tourists, are being directed to travel through the Navajo Nation, which is on lockdown until May 17. Gallup is a small, rural city at the edge of the Navajo Nation in northwest New Mexico, the largest population center on the route between Flagstaff, Arizona and Albuquerque, New Mexico. The city is predominantly Native American and borders the nearby Navajo, Zuni, and Hopi reservations. Its metropolitan area has the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infection of any metropolitan area in the United States. McKinley County, which includes Gallup, has a total of 1,144 COVID-19 cases, over 30 percent of New Mexico’s total. According to McKinley County Commissioner Bill Lee, one in 70 people has this virus. The number of confirmed cases likely undercounts the total. The extraordinary number of cases in Gallup is a reflection of the poverty and economic devastation facing rural towns in the Southwest US, particularly on Native American reservations. As of Sunday, there were 2,373 cases of COVID-19 on the Navajo Nation, an increase of over 200 in 48 hours. The critically underfunded US Indian Health Services (IHS) has administered roughly 2,800 tests per 100,000 people as of April 20, the third-highest testing rate in the US. Though the IHS has expanded rapid testing, the crisis in Gallup shows that testing continues to lag far behind the need. The lockdown will sharpen the hunger crisis on the Navajo Nation, already a food desert, where food access has been curtailed by curfews, closures and shelter-in-place orders. According to the Navajo Times, border cities like Gallup are a vital resource for the reservation’s residents, who must often travel hours to shop for groceries, do laundry, haul water, and buy hay and feed for livestock. As many Navajo people rely on federal aid to survive, the first of the month is a particularly vital day for travel into Gallup.
The Farmers - The virus isn’t on the mountain, yet. But there’s a feeling of inevitability as this region of Upstate New York becomes a hotspot. Two people in this small town work at the hospital in nearby Pittsfield, and though they try their best to decontaminate and quarantine between shifts, both assume they’ll eventually get sick. And everyone is apprehensive about what happens once the virus arrives here, in this tight-knit rural community with its many seniors and numerous collective households, where most residents live along a single central road. Neighbors are also mobilizing. The farm my friends run at the base of the road has implemented stringent safety measures and continues to to sell the produce many have come to rely on. Meanwhile, the herbalists have made a potent immunity tincture they are distributing to the elderly and immunocompromised. One of the medical workers has organized an impressive horizontal mask-making network of cutters, sewers, and runners that recently delivered four hundred masks to a homeless shelter in Troy. People are coordinating bulk orders and pooling shopping lists to minimize risky excursions, and have been on numerous collective calls to discuss the best protocols for quarantining and care in the eventuality that someone here does become ill. There’s even been some talk of throwing money from our government stimulus checks into a pooled fund for future projects. Of course, projects of mutual aid and community self-sufficiency aren’t exclusive to the country; as I write this, friends in our Queens neighborhood are running a large pop-up pantry and delivering large quantities of food to those in need. But at a time when supply chains are in doubt and the workers harvesting our crops, processing our meat, and delivering our packages are getting sick because the corporations we’ve come to rely on are treating them as expendable, it feels prudent to be near the life-giving force of the farm, the goats who give milk and meat, the neighbor who keeps bees, and the medicinal herb garden that supplies the home apothecary. Though I’d been resisting it, sitting near the wood stove now eating venison barbacoa tacos with deer my friends shot and tortillas they made from blue corn they grew, nixtamalized, and ground themselves, never before has their way of life seemed to make more sense.
Coronavirus pandemic ravages rural areas in US and internationally - The spread of coronavirus cases and deaths into rural areas across the United States and internationally lays bare the lie that the response by the Trump administration and other governments is a “success story” and the “war” against the pandemic is being won. There are more than 3.8 million confirmed coronavirus cases internationally and 264,000 deaths. So far, less than 1.3 million have recovered, meaning that more than 2.2 million lives across the planet still hang in the balance. Moreover, there has been a sharp increase in the number of new cases in Russia, Brazil and India, which are on their way to becoming new epicenters of COVID-19. Even in countries where the official total of new cases has been decreasing in densely packed urban areas thanks to physical distancing measures, such as the United States, the case counts and death tolls in rural areas have begun to increase. In fact, if the cases in New York City are not counted, the number of new cases in the US overall is still increasing. It is well known that the official figures for both infections and deaths vastly underestimate the actual toll of the virus, in part because in most countries testing remains wholly inadequate. The criminality of the policies being pursued in country after country was further exposed by a report published Tuesday on the preprint server bioRxiv, which documents a mutated strain of the coronavirus, one that started in Europe and is much more infectious than the original strain that emerged in Wuhan, China. Not only are mutations potentially more infectious and/or deadly, the strain of the virus may be sufficiently different to require a different vaccine. This is why a new flu vaccine is developed each year, because new strains of the virus are always evolving. Such a situation in the case of the coronavirus would be an order of magnitude more severe. Not only is there not a working vaccine or known therapeutic, there is no natural immunity to the disease among the world’s population, meaning that a second strain is a potential second infection. As such, the policy implicitly being put forward by sending workers back to offices and factories—that of “herd immunity”—becomes even more homicidal in its implications for the vast majority of the world’s people.
Irish Send Money to Native American Community Hit By COVID-19, Returning Historic Favor A Native American community severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak has received an outpour of donations from Irish people, who are returning a historic favor from 173 years ago.In 1847, the Native American Choctaw nation sent $170 ($5000 today) of relief aid to the Irish people impacted by the great potato famine. Now, the Irish are reciprocating the act of goodwill by donating funds to the Navajo nation, which has been severely impacted by COVID-19, with at least 2373 cases and 73 death as of May 3. The Navajo nation has one of the highest infection rates per capita in the United States. It reported its first two cases on March 17 and since, the number of cases has continued to rise. Up to 40% of people living in the nation do not have access to running water in their homes and 10% do not have electricity. AGoFundMe campaign raising funds for bulk food and medical supplies has already reached $1,769,300, thanks in large part to Irish donors.“From an Irish brother to our native American brothers,” writes donor James Fallon on the campaign page. “Karma always comes back around.” It is said that back in 1847, the Choctaw nation heard about the famine from an Irish man overseeing the forced displacement of Native Americans. At the time, the Choctaw people were among the 60,000 Native American that had been recently dislocated from their ancestral homes. Despite their limited means, the Choctaw nation decided to help, and sent over funds that were used to purchase food, blankets and feed for livestock. The Irish people never forgot this act of generosity. In 2017, a sculpture of nine eagles feathers called Kindred Spirits was unveiled in Bailick Park in Midlton, County Cork, Ireland. The following year, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced a scholarship program for Choctaw youth, calling the relationship between the two communities “a sacred bond…which has joined our peoples together for all time.” He added, “your act of kindness has never been, and never will be, forgotten in Ireland.”
New outbreaks of COVID-19 reported at workplaces across the US - Despite the rosy assurances by federal, state and local authorities that the pandemic is well under control, and states can safely reopen their economies, the COVID-19 virus continues to spread to workplaces throughout the US. In Newton, Iowa, 30 miles south of Des Moines, it was first reported on April 13 that two workers at TPI Composites, a manufacturing facility specializing in wind turbine blades, tested positive for COVID-19. The plant is the largest employer in the area, with more than 1,000 workers. By April 25, at least 200 workers at the plant tested positive. Four days later, a worker from the facility fatally succumbed to the virus. Prior to his death, Kyle Brown, a 54-year-old maintenance worker at TPI, published on April 18 a Facebook post detailing his efforts to get tested. The post is representative of the various absurd hurdles workers often have to go through to receive a test. In his post, which currently has one thousand shares and over two hundred comments, Brown wrote that he first sought to get tested at UnityPoint Health, a hospital in Marshalltown, Iowa, but was denied. He reported that he could not get testing, “Since I don’t work at a meat packing plant and I’m under 65,” adding, “I told them I have been exposed at work by numerous people that tested positive, and I am currently showing all of the symptoms including a fever of 101.8 [degrees Fahrenheit]. They said I don’t meet the [Iowa Department of Public Health’s (IDPH)] guidelines and they can’t do it.” Brown was eventually able to get a test at a hospital in Newton, MercyOne Medical Center, located 40-minutes away. Inexplicably, he was told at this facility that he met the IDPH’s guidelines and was able to get tested without delay. An article in the Des Moines Register from May 3 reported that Brown made three attempts to be admitted to an emergency room as his condition worsened, first at UnityPoint, then MercyOne. In each instance, he was turned away because his blood-oxygen level was too high. Eventually, once his blood-oxygen level reached “appropriate” levels, he was admitted to UnityPoint where he subsequently passed away.
Global Deaths from Coronavirus Pass 251,000 – WSJ - More than a quarter of a million people world-wide have died from the new coronavirus, a milestone in the pandemic, as several hard-hit countries took steps toward reopening. Globally, there have been more than 251,000 confirmed deaths, nearly 69,000 of which were reported in the U.S., according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. accounts for 1.18 million of the 3.58 million cases world-wide. Experts say the reported figures likely undercount the extent of the pandemic. The death toll crossed the quarter million mark, as California detailed initial steps to reopen, and Florida and other U.S. states eased restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic. Retailers in California including clothing stores, bookstores, sporting goods stores, and florists can reopen for curbside pickup as soon as Friday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said. Manufacturers that supply them can resume operations as well. Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said local governments in less affected counties would be able to take further steps, such as reopening restaurants and other businesses—with limitations—if they meet certain health benchmarks. Other localities can keep stricter rules in place. Some rural counties with few or no cases of Covid-19 have protested California’s uniform quarantine policies. Governors across the U.S. have reopened business or laid out plans to do so in a patchwork of orders that vary by speed and approach.Missouri businesses were permitted to open their doors with restrictions in place, restaurants and salons in Nebraska could prepare for customers, and Ohio manufacturers limited by the pandemic could resume operations.In Florida, restaurants and stores in most parts of the state could reopen at 25% of their indoor capacity Monday, while schools, bars, gyms and salons remained closed.“It’s exciting,” said Lisa Godbout, director of operations at Datz Restaurant Group, which opened two of its five restaurants in the Tampa Bay area. “But it’s also a lot of pressure to make sure you do right by your customers and your staff.”Customers trickled in to a transformed dining experience. Door holders greeted guests with hand sanitizer, employees wore masks and gloves, and sealed plastic utensils replaced silverware.
Why UK has world's worst Covid-19 death rate - The UK is surging to the top of a trifecta of Covid-19 metrics: total infections; total deaths; and case-fatality rates. As per data from Johns Hopkins University at time of writing, the United Kingdom (population: 66 million) is fourth in total infections, with 178,685 cases. This compares to the United States (population: 328 million) with 1,103, 781 cases; Spain (population: 47 million) with 213, 435 cases; and Italy (population 60 million) with 207, 428.When it comes to death toll, the UK looks worse. Leading the world is the US with 62,996. Italy is second with 27,967. The UK is third, with 26,842. Worst of all is the UK’s status in case fatality rates — ie the rate of deaths among those treated. In that, the UK, with a 15.6 rate, is the second highest in the developed world, behind Belgium (just) with 15.7%. Meanwhile, Italy’s rate stands at 13.6%, Spain’s at 11.5% and the US, which does not have universal health care, is at 5.9%. (There are two localities with higher case fatality rates than Belgium and the UK — Antigua and Barbuda with 12.5% and Nicaragua with 21.4% — but both are in the developing world.) What is going on? Certainly, Westminster must shoulder some blame for infection rates. This is, to a considerable extent, a result of policy and/or non-policy. Closing borders, halting large gatherings, mandating social distancing, locking down localities, and the timelineness of all the previous measures, are all factors. Naturally and reasonably, Boris Johnson’s government is facing heavy flak and being forced to answer questions on this account. But when it comes to deaths, and most particularly case fatality rates, matters are not so simple. And the latter metric — the ratio of deaths-to-diagnosed — is particularly damning for the NHS. National age — the biggest risk factor for Covid-19 mortality — cannot be blamed: The UK is only the 25th oldest country in the world. The metric also relates to the number of tests — the more tests conducted, the more mild cases will be uncovered, lowering case fatality rates. On this front, the UK has done reasonably well. As of April 30, the UK had conducted 901, 905 tests. That compares favorably with the global gold standard for testing, South Korea (population: 51 million), which had conducted 619,881 tests by the same date. So what is left to zero in on, when it comes to explaining the UK’s high case fatality rates? After age and tests, the only remaining factor is medical treatment. The current ambience of passionate adulation should not camouflage harsh data findings. Nor should it prevent NHS civil servants from facing the kind of grilling that policy makers are undergoing. Is NHS leadership on point? Are its processes sound? Is its equipment adequate? Are its staffers well trained? Are its treatment protocols correct? Is reform necessary? These questions are especially germane given the vast resources the NHS currently commands. Not only have hundreds of thousands of volunteers flocked to assist the service, the Armed Forces have also been deployed in their aid. While it may be too early to ask them now, these questions must be raised. Meanwhile, pre-pandemic international studies don’t award the NHS the kind of high global rankings one might expect, given the UK’s status as a G6 economy.
Coronavirus: UK death toll becomes the highest in Europe - The U.K. has the highest official death toll as a result of the coronavirus in Europe, new figures show, with more than 32,000 fatalities recorded since the start of the outbreak. Data published by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday revealed that 29,648 people have died due to the coronavirus in England and Wales through to April 24. The addition of deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland takes the U.K.'s death toll to 32,313, according to Reuters. It means the U.K. has now surpassed Italy as the worst-hit country in Europe and is second only to the U.S. for Covid-19-related deaths worldwide, according to the official statistics for each country. To date, Italy has recorded 29,079 deaths as a result of the coronavirus, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Italy's total does not include suspected cases and the country's statistics agency ISTAT reportedly claimed on Monday that thousands of fatalities in the country have not been officially attributed to Covid-19. Experts have warned against international comparisons, citing differences in demographics and because each country has its own way of measuring the number of deaths. The U.K. only recently started adding deaths in the community, such as nursing homes, to its official statistics; previously, it had included only those who died in hospital. The U.K. government has faced intense criticism from opposition parties in recent weeks, with some lawmakers suggesting Prime Minister Boris Johnson was too slow to respond to the pandemic when it first emerged. Johnson was initially reluctant to impose national lockdown measures at a time when hospitals in Italy were already being overrun. Downing Street has also come under fire for failing to provide enough protective equipment to hospitals and being late to roll out mass testing. Britain has been on lockdown for six weeks now, with nonessential shops shuttered across the country and people facing fines if they break the rules. Johnson has said the U.K.'s new strategy will be unveiled later this week. He has claimed the U.K. "past the peak" of the pandemic late last month, and was now on a "downward slope." Before it can lift lockdown restrictions, the U.K. government has said five things are necessary: The National Health Service must be able to cope; there's a consistent fall in daily deaths; a slowdown in the rate of infection to "manageable levels"; sufficient testing and personal protective equipment is in hand; and confidence that any adjustments would not risk a second peak. The U.K. government recently said it had reached a milestone in testing for the disease, with the number of coronavirus tests carried out on Thursday rising to 122,347. This surpassed the government's self-imposed target of 100,000 daily tests by the end of April.
Deaths surge in UK care homes - As Boris Johnson’s Conservative government and a compliant media advance “a roadmap” to restart the UK economy in line with the demands of big business, new statistics confirm that the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic has shifted from hospitals to care homes. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recorded 30,064 deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales. Of the 27,356 that were registered by April 24, 19,643 (71.8 percent) occurred in hospitals, 5,890 (21.5 percent) among care home residents, 1,306 in private homes and 301 in hospices. Johnson has trumpeted declining weekly figures for hospital deaths to justify an easing of lockdown restrictions, even as yesterday registered a death toll of 649 and a massive 6,111 additional cases. Of growing significance is how care home deaths continue to expand at an alarming rate. Data provided by the Care Quality Commission (CQC), based on death notifications directly from care homes, recorded 6,391 COVID-19 deaths between April 10 and May 1 in English care homes alone. Nearly one-third of these (2,044) occurred in the last week of this period, and the CQC is now receiving around 400 death notifications each day. Deaths among care home residents are rapidly increasing as a proportion of weekly fatalities from all causes. ONS figures for England and Wales reveal care home deaths constituted 36 percent of all deaths in the week ending April 24, compared with a five-year average of 22 percent. The proportion of overall deaths occurring in private households—where hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people depend on home care services—has also risen to 4,834 deaths, a 5.8 percent increase compared with the previous week. The number of care home residents dying of any cause has nearly tripled from an average of 2,500 per week in March to 7,300 in a single week in April. Approximately 2,000 of these were directly related to COVID-19, meaning that thousands of residents have become secondary victims of the pandemic as access to both routine and lifesaving medical treatment has been cut off as health and social care services have been overwhelmed. Care home deaths also account for a growing proportion of the overall death toll in Scotland. According to the National Records of Scotland (NRS), 43 percent of the country’s 2,795 COVID-19 fatalities have occurred in care homes. In the last week for which data is available, between April 27 and May 3, 59 percent of all COVID-19 fatalities occurred among care home residents, although total care home deaths declined marginally to 310 compared with 339 counted in the previous week.
Spotlight: Black adults four times more likely to die from COVID-19 than whites in UK: ONS - (Xinhua) -- Black adults are more than four times as likely to die from a COVID-19 related death than white people in Britain, according to a provisional analysis by the British Office for National Statistics (ONS) released Thursday. When taking age into account, black males are 4.2 times more likely to die from deaths that are COVID-19 related and black females 4.3 times more likely than their white counterparts in the country, said the ONS. The latest figures were published by the ONS one day after Britain became the first country in Europe to pass 30,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths. A total of 30,615 people have died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community after testing positive for the virus, according to the latest official figures released Thursday. Data published by the ONS found that ethnic minority groups were more vulnerable to COVID-19. Researchers said the difference in virus mortality is partly due to socio-economic disadvantages and other circumstances. Shadow Justice Secretary David Lammy responded to the figures by calling for an urgent investigation into the disproportionate number of deaths. "It is urgent the causes of this disproportionality are investigated," he tweeted. "Action must be taken to protect black men and women -- as well as people from all backgrounds -- from the virus." The ONS report shows people of Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian and mixed ethnicity had statistically significant raised risk of death compared with the white population amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The figures, which were adjusted for age, suggest that people from all ethnic minority groups -- except women with Chinese ethnicity -- are at greater risk of dying from the disease than white groups. The ONS analysts also found that men of Bangladeshi/Pakistani ethnicity were 3.6 times more likely to die with the virus than white men, with the equivalent figure for Bangladeshi/Pakistani females set at 3.4. Men of Indian ethnicity were found to be 2.4 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than white men, while the figure for women of Indian ethnicity is slightly higher, at 2.7. For people of Chinese ethnicity, the team found an increased risk among men but not women: men were 1.9 times more likely to die from COVID-19, while the figure for women was 1.2.
France: Covid-19 patient found from December, doctors say – CNN - There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought.Doctors at a Paris hospital say they've found evidence that one patient admitted in December was infected with Covid-19. If verified, this finding would show that the virus was already circulating in Europe at that time -- well before the first known cases were diagnosed in France or hotspot Italy."Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country," the team at Groupe Hospitalier Paris Seine in Saint-Denis wrote in a study published Sunday in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents.The first official reports of Covid-19 in France were reported on Jan. 24, in two people who had a history of travel to Wuhan, China.Intensive care specialist Dr. Yves Cohen and his hospital colleagues wrote that they decided to check the records of earlier patients, in case the virus had been spreading undetected.Researchers in the US have also started finding evidence that the virus was infecting and killing people earlier than the country's first reported cases. The French team looked at people admitted to the hospital with flu-like illness between December 2 and January 16 who were not ultimately diagnosed with influenza. They tested frozen samples from those patients for coronavirus."One sample was positive taken from a 42 year old man born in Algeria, who lived in France for many years, and worked as a fishmonger," the team wrote. "His last trip was in Algeria during August 2019." The man had not been to China, and one of his children had also been sick, the team reported.
The head of Sweden’s no-lockdown coronavirus plan said the country’s heavy death toll ‘came as a surprise’ - The man leading Sweden's coronavirus response says the country's elevated death toll "really came as a surprise to us." Dr. Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, appeared on "The Daily Show with Trevor Noah" on Tuesday, when he described the country's controversial approach. "We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say," he said. "We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us." As of Tuesday, Sweden reported more than 2,700 COVID-19 deaths and more than 23,000 infections. That death toll is far higher than its Nordic neighbors' and many other countries that locked down. Tegnell said there were good points to Sweden's unusual strategy, which largely relies on people to socially distance without fixed rules. But he acknowledged: "I am not saying we are successful in all different ways. I mean our death toll is really something we worry a lot about." He noted that Sweden had the same issue as many European countries in terms of a significant number of deaths in nursing homes, even though visits to such homes have been banned in Sweden.
Russian COVID-19 cases rise, as 750,000 join unemployment rolls - As coronavirus infections continue to rise in Russia and the country’s economic crisis deepens, political disaffection with the government of President Vladimir Putin is growing. On Thursday, the country witnessed its largest one-day increase in diagnosed cases—more than 11,000—bringing the total number of infected to well over 177,000. Recently released data show that joblessness is surging, as popular support for the Kremlin falls to new lows. Three top government officials—the prime minister, the minister of culture, and the minister of construction—have contracted COVID-19. Outbreaks have also taken hold in Russian orthodox churches and monasteries, where religious leaders falsely claimed that clergymen and parishioners were safe from the disease. On Thursday, Russian mining tycoon Dmitri Bosov, who had a net worth of $1.1 billion, killed himself with a gunshot wound to the head. While his motives remain unclear, an associate close to the oligarch said that recently he began selling off assets, possibly gripped by anxieties over the pandemic and its consequences even as he faced a series of legal challenges to his business operations. At the Chayanda oil field in Yakutia, over one-third of the 10,500 workers on site have now tested positive for COVID-19, according to the federal Russian Health Ministry. Last week, protests erupted at the Gazprom-run facility, with employees charging management with transforming the workplace into a hotspot by quarantining ill and healthy workers together. The company failed to provide adequate food, masks, protective gear or medical care. Some 8,500 workers have now been evacuated from the oil field, with those remaining required to continue production. The head of Russia’s atomic energy corporation, Aleksei Likhachev, has also warned that the country’s “nuclear cities,” centers of the industry that were once closed to outsiders, are unable to secure the health of their workforces. The situation in Sarov, Elektrostal, and Desnogorsk is “particularly alarming,” he warned, due to a lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators. In Moscow, the epicenter of Russia’s outbreak, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that there are more than 92,000 official cases, but the real number is likely close to 300,000. Nonetheless, on May 12, the city will reopen industry, manufacturing, and construction, with thousands of workers sent back to their jobs, even as the Sobyanin’s administration tightens other restrictions for the general population.
Over 2,000 doctors infected with COVID-19 in Ukraine amid growing protest by medical workers - Ukraine’s Ministry of Health has reported that 2,154 doctors have tested positive for COVID-19, accounting for almost 17.5 percent of the country’s 12,331 confirmed cases. So far, at least 16 medical workers have died from complications caused by the disease. The high number of infected medical workers is a direct result of the failure of the Ukrainian government to adequately supply and fund its health care workers. While Ukraine still has fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths compared to other European countries, it is facing the crisis as the government of President Volodmyr Zelensky continues to carry out the right-wing medical “reforms” of the previous health minister, Ulyana Suprun. Suprun, a US citizen and American doctor of Ukrainian background, first appeared in Ukraine to take part in the 2014 United States-backed “Maidan” protests against elected President Viktor Yanukovych. She later served under President Petro Poroshenko, who was installed after the coup. Suprun championed cutting of direct funding to hospitals, the creation of “competition” among doctors for patients and the closing of hospitals deemed to not have enough patients. Her reforms also entailed banning Russian-made drugs and equipment and the closing of the country’s sanitary-epidemiological service. During her tenure Ukraine suffered a measles outbreak, unprecedented in modern Europe, and Suprun became one of the Poroshenko regime’s most criticized public figures. While Suprun received strong backing from both the United States and Europe for supposedly fighting “corruption,” a December 2019 poll showed that just 9 percent of Ukrainians considered her reforms “successful.” Suprun was later dismissed by the incoming Zelensky administration in August of 2019. Despite the fact that current President Volodomyr Zelensky criticized Suprun for the increasing lack of essential medicine and rising cost of care throughout his election campaign, he has pledged to continue with the second stage of medical reforms on April 1 and recently told Bloomberg that he considered the first round of reforms “successful” and blamed widespread opposition to the reforms among Ukrainians on a “lack of understanding.”
Third Russian Doctor Falls From Hospital Window After Coronavirus Complaint -A paramedic who complained about being forced to work despite contracting coronavirus is in critical condition after he fell from a hospital window in western Russia this weekend, local media reported. This is at least the third incident in which a Russian healthcare professional has plunged from a hospital building under mysterious circumstances in the past two weeks. The two previous doctors have died from their injuries.Alexander Shulepov is in critical condition with a skull fracture after falling from the second floor of a rural hospital where he was being treated for Covid-19, the local crisis center told the Vesti Voronezh outlet Saturday. Shulepov, 37, and his colleague filmed a video on April 22 complaining that the chief doctor of the Novaya Usman village hospital forced him to work despite the fact that he tested positive for Covid-19. A second video appeared three days later in which Shulepov denied his initial “emotional” claims. His colleague Alexander Kosyakin reportedly faces criminal charges for spreading “fake news” about the virus, which carries a prison sentence of up to five years under a recently passed federal law.
China Study Finds 5% to 15% of Covid-19 Cases Are Reactivated - Among recovered Chinese Covid-19 patients, about 5% to 15% may have tested positive again, a Chinese study found. The rate of reactivation in China varied among different places, with some regions showing less than 1% of such cases among recovered patients, Wang Guiqiang, director of department of infection at the Peking University First Hospital. Wang disclosed the figures during a press conference held by China’s National Health Commission on Thursday. Wang said most of the patients who have tested positive again have yet to show any symptoms, and it needs more work to find out the reason for the reactivation. Fear of re-infection in recovered patients is growing in China, where the virus first emerged last December. There’s little understanding of why this happens, although some believe that the problem may lie in inconsistencies in test results. More than 82,000 people have been infected with the virus in China, with about 4,600 deaths, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News.
India sees spike of 3,561 new COVID-19 cases, total number passes 50,000 mark - (Xinhua) -- India, on its 44th day of lockdown on Thursday, crossed the 50,000 mark in terms of COVID-19 cases, and the death toll reached 1,783 across the country. Out of the total 52,952 cases, 15,267 people were cured and discharged, which is nearly 29 percent. The southwestern state of Maharashtra is the worst hit with more than 16,758 cases and 651 deaths, followed by the western state of Gujarat with 6,625 cases and nearly 400 deaths, and Delhi with 5,532 cases and 65 deaths. The central state of Madhya Pradesh recorded 185 deaths. More than half of COVID-19 cases are concentrated in three states -- Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi, while nearly two-thirds of deaths were reported from the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. During the 24 hours till 8 a.m. (local time) on Thursday, a maximum spike of 3,561 cases were recorded. According to Professor Shamika Ravi, a former member of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, five states namely Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal were pulling up the national average, while Gujarat and Maharashtra had much higher average than others. Delhi has managed to stabilise its COVID-19 death rate despite high case load, and the state of West Bengal witnessed large increases. Over the past few days, a fresh second wave of COVID-19 cases was witnessed in Haryana and Tamil Nadu.
Coronavirus latest: Seoul closes bars and clubs after resurgence of infections -The Seoul city government on Saturday ordered clubs and bars to shut after a spate of infections in the city's popular Itaewon entertainment district, official media reported. Nightlife establishments across the South Korean capital will be banned from hosting crowds of people, the Yonhap news agency reported. “Such facilities have to suspend business immediately and will face strict punishment if they breach [the order],” Seoul mayor Park Won-soon was quoted as saying, adding the order will remain in effect until further notice. Earlier, at least 18 Covid-19 cases associated with a person who visited clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend have been confirmed, Yonhap reported. South Korean health officials are racing to identify and test more than 1,500 people who also visited Itaewon nightspots last week and might test positive.
CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years – STAT — An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades. The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press. Flu experts knew it was a very bad season, but at least one found size of the estimate surprising. “That’s huge,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University vaccine expert. The tally was nearly twice as much as what health officials previously considered a bad year, he said. In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12,000 to — in the worst year — 56,000, according to the CDC. Last fall and winter, the U.S. went through one of the most severe flu seasons in recent memory. It was driven by a kind of flu that tends to put more people in the hospital and cause more deaths, particularly among young children and the elderly. The season peaked in early February. It was mostly over by the end of March, although some flu continued to circulate. Making a bad year worse, the flu vaccine didn’t work very well. Experts nevertheless say vaccination is still worth it, because it makes illnesses less severe and save lives. “I’d like to see more people get vaccinated,” Redfield told the AP at an event in New York. “We lost 80,000 people last year to the flu.” CDC officials do not have exact counts of how many people die from flu each year. Flu is so common that not all flu cases are reported, and flu is not always listed on death certificates. So the CDC uses statistical models, which are periodically revised, to make estimates. Fatal complications from the flu can include pneumonia, stroke and heart attack. CDC officials called the 80,000 figure preliminary, and it may be slightly revised. But they said it is not expected to go down. It eclipses the estimates for every flu season going back to the winter of 1976-1977. Estimates for many earlier seasons were not readily available.
Ineffective flu vaccine added to 50,000 extra deaths last winter, ONS says - The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics. It was the worst winter on record for more than 40 years, with the 1975-76 season being the last time deaths climbed so high above the expected levels. The NHS was rocked by a record winter crisis in early 2018, with amassive rise in flu cases and sub-zero temperatures triggered by the Beast from the East storm, which added further to death rates. Despite protecting against the potentially serious "Aussie flu", officials said in January that the vaccine which had been widely used was not effective against some of the more prevalent strains of the virus affecting the UK.The impact on death rates was apparent as early as March, when experts warned the government must “urgently investigate” a spike of 10,000 deaths in the first weeks of 2018.But the ONS data, spanning December to March, shows that this trend continued to rise. “The number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976,” said Nick Stripe, from the ONS Health Analysis and Life Events team."
Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as result of Covid-19 lockdown - The head of a global partnership to end tuberculosis (TB) said she is “sickened” by research that revealed millions more people are expected to contract the disease as a result of Covid-19 restrictions. Up to 6.3 million more people are predicted to develop TB between now and 2025 and 1.4 million more people are expected to die as cases go undiagnosed and untreated during lockdown. This will set back global efforts to end TB by five to eight years. “The fact that we’ve rolled back to 2013 figures and we have so many people dying, this for me is sickening,” said Lucica Ditiu, executive director of the Stop TB Partnership. “I am outraged that just by not being able to control what we do … and forgetting about programmes that exist we lose so much, starting with the loss of the lives of people.” There is currently no TB vaccine for adults, only one for children. “I have to say we look from the TB community in a sort of puzzled way because TB has been around for thousands of years,” Ditiu said. “For 100 years we have had a vaccine and we have two or three potential vaccines in the pipeline. We need around half a billion [people] to get the vaccine by 2027 and we look in amazement on a disease that … is 120 days old and it has 100 vaccine candidates in the pipeline. So I think this world, sorry for my French, is really fucked up,” she said. “The fear we have in the community is that researchers are heading towards just developing a vaccine for Covid. That’s on the agenda of everyone now and very few remain focused on the others [diseases]. We don’t have a vaccine for TB, we don’t have a vaccine for HIV, we don’t have a vaccine for malaria and out of all this, TB is the oldest. So why this reaction? I think because we are a world of idiots. What can I say?”
Coronavirus's priceless gift -- Frances Coppola - The freesias that my daughter sent me are long dead, but the clematis in my garden are in full flower, and they smell of vanilla. It has taken about five weeks for my sense of smell to return. But I was only mildly ill. For many people, the road to recovery is much longer. Initially, coronavirus was thought to be a respiratory illness causing cough, fever and breathing difficulties. But the range of symptoms that the virus produces is now known to be much wider. Headache, muscle pains, fatigue, nausea, diarrhoea are recognised as symptoms of coronavirus infection. There is growing evidence that it disturbs the blood clotting mechanism and can trigger heart attacks or strokes. It also seems to have caused renal or liver failure in some patients. And there are worrying reports of long-term problems such as a weakened heart or immune systems. It's also difficult to diagnose. Some very sick people don't have a cough or fever, or obvious breathing difficulties. Some people's only symptom is sudden loss of the senses of smell and/or taste: this is now regarded as a definitive indicator of coronavirus infection in people without other symptoms. The virus and the measures taken to contain it are causing untold grief and misery. But there are unexpected benefits. Under lockdown, the air has cleared and nature has re-colonised our empty spaces. We will return to them again: but this time, I hope, with renewed love and consideration for the plants, birds and animals with whom we share this beautiful planet. And also for our own future selves, and those who will live here when we are gone. Lower pollution levels and greater diversity of wildlife benefit humans too. There is so much loss, but there is also healing, not only for those who like me have survived the virus, but for the world. Deadly though it is, coronavirus has brought us a priceless gift. It has given us a delightful glimpse of what a pollution-free natural world can be like, and it has created time for us to rethink our relationship with nature. We should use this gift wisely, designing new ways of working, producing and caring, so that when the time comes for our economy to wake from its induced slumber, the beauty that has been restored through our collective sacrifice can stay with us for ever. Surely this would be the best memorial for those who are losing their lives.
Gas stoves making indoor air up to five times dirtier than outdoor air, report finds - Gas stoves are making people sick, contributing pollution that makes indoor air up to two to five times dirtier than outdoor air, according to a new report. Despite the risks, regulators have failed to set standards for indoor air quality – a problem that is now likely to be exacerbated by large numbers of people spending time inside and cooking at home during the coronavirus pandemic. Fossil-fuel-burning stoves are likely exposing tens of millions of Americans to air pollution levels that would be illegal if they were outside, concludes the review of decades of science by the Rocky Mountain Institute and multiple environmental advocacy groups. Lead report author Brady Seals said little attention has been paid despite longstanding knowledge of the problem. “Somehow we’ve gotten accustomed to having a combustion device, often unvented, inside of the home,” Seals said. About a third of US households cook primarily with gas – which emits nitrogen dioxide and carbon dioxide, in addition to the particle pollution that all types of stoves produce. Older, poorly maintained stoves pollute even more including risks from carbon monoxide. Even small increases in short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide can increase asthma risks for children. One analysis found that children in homes with gas stoves have a 42% higher chance of having asthma symptoms. Another in Australia attributed 12.3% of all childhood asthma burden to gas stoves. Nitrogen dioxide also makes chronic obstructive pulmonary disease worse and may be linked to heart problems, diabetes and cancer. Carbon monoxide poisoning can cause a headache, nausea, a rapid heartbeat, cardiac arrest and death. The best solution, according to the report, is to change to electric stoves. But individuals with gas stoves can also open windows, cook on their back burners, use an exhaust hood, run an air purifier with a HEPA filter and install a carbon monoxide detector.
Rubbish Is Piling Up and Recycling Has Stalled – Waste Systems Must Adapt - Coronavirus has revealed just how fragile our waste cycle is.Globally, collection services are being reduced because of social distancing, staff absences and concerns about workers’ health and safety. This is affecting the collection, sorting, processing and treatment of wastes as well as markets for materials made from recycling and composts. In the UK alone, 46% of recycling facilities have reduced or stopped treatment. Domestic glass and some recycling, garden and food waste collection schemes have been cancelled or restricted, with almost all household waste recycling centres closed. This impact is being seen around the world, with the US reporting that 31%of their facilities have been negatively affected. Unless these recyclable materials are stored safely at home, they may end up being sent to end-of-life treatments, such as landfill or incineration.Changes in lifestyle are adding to this problem. The amount of waste generated in commercial and industrial workplaces has drastically reduced. In contrast, home clear-outs and renovations during the lockdown are creating domestic waste that can’t be disposed of at recycling centres. In the UK, this has resulted in a 300% increase in reported fly-tipping in rural communities. Items that could have been reused via donation to charity are being disposed of unnecessarily. The UK’s high street charity retail shops – which generate around £270 million annually for good causes – now find their future under threat at a time when demand for their services is highest. Industries that rely heavily on recycled materials are therefore the ones feeling the most pressure in terms of getting hold of resources. The US plastic recycling industry has asked congress for a US$1 billion (£800 million) bailout “to meet the demands of this crisis”. There are warnings for cardboard shortages for future packaging as we produce and recycle less at work, and sharp increases in online shopping brings more card and paper into our homes. Meanwhile, dramatic reductions in wood waste recycling (to nearly 10% of capacity) thanks to construction slowing, and household recycling centres closing, is having knock on effects on biomass energy generation. The manufacture of cars has reduced globally, reducing the demand for recycled steel and aluminium. Medical waste, which requires specialist collection and treatment, is increasing rapidly. When you add the panic-bought £1.9 billion of groceries to this – and that’s just a UK figure – some of which went straight into the bin, it’s clear that COVID-19 is having a massive impact on waste management and negatively affecting the environment.
‘Murder Hornets’ Spotted in U.S. for the First Time - Invasive "murder hornets" have been spotted in the U.S. for the first time, prompting concerns for the nation's honeybees and the trajectory of a year that has already brought locust invasions and a global pandemic.Four sightings of the world's largest hornets — officially called the Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) — were reported and verified in Washington State in December 2019, according to the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA). But "murder hornet" began trending after the publication Saturday of aNew York Times piece about Washington's efforts to find and eradicate the insects before they take hold, asNBC News reported. But for honeybees, the Asian giant hornet is no joke. The hornets enter a "slaughter phase" where they decapitate bees, WSDA said. They destroy an entire hive within hours and then claim it as their own, feeding the brood to their young.Washington beekeeper Ted McFall told The New York Times of driving home in November to find a pile of decapitated bee carcasses on the ground."I couldn't wrap my head around what could have done that," McFall told The New York Times. He later came to suspect murder hornets, though this has not been confirmed.There have also been sightings of the hornet across the border in British Columbia, but at least one of the Canadian hives was proven to be unconnected to one of the W ashington hornets, meaning the insect was likely introduced to the region at least twice. While the hornets do not typically attack humans or pets unless threatened, their stings are extremely painful and can be deadly. They earned the nickname "murder hornet" because their group attacks can expose the victim to as much venom as a snake bite, "It was like having red-hot thumbtacks being driven into my flesh," Conrad Bérubé, a beekeeper who was stung while exterminating a hive on Vancouver Island, told The New York Times of the experience.The hornets are 1.5 to two inches long and have a yellow or orange head with bulging eyes and a black and yellow striped abdomen, according to WSDA.
US bracing for invasion of monster hornets - The US is facing an invasion of giant Asian hornets that scientists fear could threaten its bee population. The monster hornets – nicknamed "murder hornets" by researchers in the northwestern state of Washington – were first spotted late last year near Blaine, a town near the Canadian border. Known as the Vespa Mandarinia, the hornet is two inches long and is capable of stinging several times, which can prove fatal. It is estimated that they kill around 50 people a year in Japan alone. The hornets' stingers are so long that they can penetrate beekeepers' protective suits. Their toxic venom is equivalent to that of a poisonous snake, according to Jun-ichi Takahashi, a researcher at Kyoto Sangyo University in Japan. In all four hornet colonies were found in Washington and two more were discovered in British Columbia. The tell-tale sign was piles of dead bees with their heads ripped off. Just a handful of hornets can destroy a beehive in a matter of hours, according to Washington's department of agriculture. Having decapitated the bees during what is known as their "slaughter phase" the hornets then take control of the hive. They then use the bodies of the bees to feed their young. "It's a shockingly large hornet," said Todd Murray, an entomologist at Washington State University. "It's a health hazard, and more importantly, a significant predator of honeybees," he added. The hornets' natural habitat is the forests and mountains of eastern and southeast Asia, where it has already devastated the local population of the European honeybee. How they arrived in North America remains unclear. One theory is that they might have been inadvertently transported in international cargo. Washington's department of agriculture has issued a chilling warning to local residents, telling them to use extreme caution should they come across a colony, even though they do not normally attack people or pets unless they feel threatened. "Anyone who is allergic to bee or wasp stings should never approach an Asian giant hornet," it said. "Don't try to take them out yourself if you see them," added Chris Looney, another state of Washington entomologist. "If you get into them, run away, then call us! It is really important for us to know of every sighting, if we're going to have any hope of eradication."
Murder Hornets Are In Canada Because 2020 Just Keeps On Going - Another day, another story that really starts to feel like 2020 is a year that just really has an axe to grind with humanity as a whole. Asian giant hornets, which have been not-so-fondly dubbed murder hornets, have made their way to North America. They were discovered in British Columbia last summer but there’s growing concern the insects are establishing themselves in the U.S. and Canada. “They’re like something out of a monster cartoon with this huge yellow-orange face,” said Susan Cobey, a bee breeder in the entomology department of Washington State University (WSU), in an April news release. Officials in B.C. issued a warning in March about the winter-hibernating hornets appearing this spring and summer after some were found in White Rock, B.C. as well as neighbouring Washington state late last year. “The Asian giant hornet is classified as a serious honeybee predator. Asian giant hornets hunt insects for food and generally are not interested in humans, pets and livestock. When their nest is disturbed, they will attack with painful stings, which can be hazardous to people’s health,” a provincial bulletin reads. The insects were first discovered B.C. in August 2019 — thought to have stowed away on a ship from Asia — and a group of beekeepers on Vancouver Island had to eradicate a large nest of the hornets the following month, reported CTV News. The queens of this species can grow over five centimetres long, while other hornets are usually around 3.5 centimetres. “It’s a shockingly large hornet,” said Todd Murray, WSU’s extension entomologist and invasive species specialist. “It’s a health hazard, and more importantly, a significant predator of honey bees.” The “murder hornets” invade hives and decapitate all the bees inside in a matter of hours. Scientists worry if they gain a foothold in North America, they’ll decimate already fragile bee populations, which in turn will affect food crop production. As the largest hornets in the world, they feed exclusively on other insects.
Second wave of locust invasion and floods to shake East Africa economies - The East African Community secretariat will set aside emergency funds to turn tides against floods and locusts. While floods are wreaking havoc across the region, a swarm of locusts is expected to once again invade Kenya through Ethiopia. This will deal a double blow to food security in a region that is already grappling with widespread economic disruption from the coronavirus pandemic. “We have convened a meeting of Agriculture Ministers from the EAC to discuss the impact of Covid-19 on agriculture and the impending invasion of locusts in our region,” said Christoph Bazivamo, deputy EAC secretary general in charge of productive and social sector. This comes in the wake of an announcement by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, warning that a new generation of locusts is set to enter East Africa in June. FAO’s resilience team leader for Eastern Africa Cyril Ferrand is concerned that the desert locust will eat seedlings and young plants, leaving no chance for crops to mature. “More swarms of locusts are set to mature in central and northern areas in Kenya with a few laying eggs and hatching starts.” “The current situation in East Africa remains extremely alarming as more swarms form and mature in northern and central Kenya and southern Ethiopia. This represents an unprecedented threat to food security and livelihoods because it coincides with the early beginning of the long rains and the current growing season,” warns desert locust situation update report by FAO and dated April 28, 2020. A new generation of breeding is under way in Kenya where more eggs will hatch and form hopper bands in May, followed by new swarms in late June and July, which coincides with the harvest season in Kenya. “First, we intend to review measures taken by each EAC partner state and share the best practices to curb the challenge posed by these natural disasters,” he said. FAO warns that it will be too late to stop the locusts from spreading in less than six months, thereby inviting starvation to millions. FAO is also concerned that the chemicals used will kill wildlife and damage food supplies. Despite FAO’s warning, EAC partner states remain unprepared to deal with the threat. Current solutions have not and will not work, the agency warns, as the sizes of the swarms are too big for aerial spraying. Further, current spraying practices don’t kill everything, leaving bugs in the ground.
Endangered Tigers Face Growing Threats From an Asian Road-Building Boom - Tigers are one of the world's most iconic wild species, but today they are endangered throughout Asia. They once roamed across much of this region, but widespread habitat loss, prey depletion and poaching have reduced their numbers to only about 4,000 individuals. They live in small pockets of habitat across South and Southeast Asia, as well as the Russian Far East — an area spanning 13 countries and 450,000 square miles (1,160,000 square kilometers).Today Asia is experiencing a road-building boom. To maintain economic growth, development experts estimate that the region will need to invest about US$8.4 trillion in transportation infrastructure between 2016 and 2030. Major investment projects, such as China's Belt and Road Initiative — one of the largest infrastructure projects of all time — are fueling this growth. While roads can reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, many of Asia's new roads also are likely to traverse regions that are home to diverse plants and animals. In a newly published study, I worked with researchers at the University of Michigan, Boise State University and the University of British Columbia to examine how existing and planned Asian roads encroach on tiger habitats. We forecast that nearly 15,000 miles (24,000 kilometers) of new roads will be built in tiger habitats by 2050, and call for bold new planning strategies that prioritize biodiversity conservation and sustainable road development across large landscapes. Road construction worsens existing threats to tigers, such as poaching and development, by paving the way for human intrusion into the heart of the tiger's range. For example, in the Russian Far East, roads have led to higher tiger mortality due to increased collisions with vehicles and more encounters with poachers.
Is There Enough Wood in the World to Meet the Sustainability Demand? - The harvesting machine takes just one second to fell the towering spruce, and another to strip the branches and scan its trunk for defects."This one is very straight," operator Antonio Petersson Kvennefelt says of the trunk gripped by the arm of his machine, as a screen in front of him flashes with data. "The computer decides what it wants the logs to be. This one is for Långasjö, a sawmill in Sweden." "The computer makes sure each sawmill gets exactly what that sawmill wants," he explains.And across the world, what saw and pulp mills want is more and more wood. According to the latest figures from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global forest production hit record levels in 2018. Up 11% on the year before. "We see an increasing demand for almost all of our products," says Göran Örlander, strategist at Södra, Sweden's largest association of forest owners. "The most obvious demand is for biofuels at the moment. Everybody wants to have biofuels to replace fossil fuels."The idea is that burning wood becomes close to carbon neutral if the forests from where it is taken are replenished at the same rate as they are felled for fuel.But critics question whether this is the case in every country which claims to provide sustainable wood, and say some of what is supplying the current boom in biomass fuels comes from existing forests rather than sustainably managed plantations. "Globally I don't think the forest resource is enough," Professor Johan Bergh, who heads the forestry department at Växjö's Linnaeus University, told DW. Particularly not, he added, to supply the transport industry with wood-derived bioethanol or biodiesel. "A lot of forest would be needed to replace fossil fuels in vehicles," he says. "It would require at least half of the new forest growth in Sweden at a national level, and of course at a global level, it would be much, much more." Other industries are also increasingly showing an interest in wood as a resource.
Pakistan turns unemployed workers into tree planters - In 2018, Pakistan pledged to plant ten billion trees in an effort to slow climate change and to replenish a landscape that has been decimated by decades of deforestation, livestock grazing, and drought. It was an ambitious goal, but as the Washington Post reported at the time, "the idea of a green awakening seems to be taking root... The concept appeals to a new generation of better-educated Pakistanis, and it has sparked excitement on social media."That program, whose name is 10 Billion Tree Tsunami, has been chugging along for the past two years, but it recently received an unexpected infusion of help from – of all things – the coronavirus. Many Pakistanis are suddenly unemployed, so the government has given them jobs as tree-planters. Unemployed day laborers have been turned into "jungle workers," planting saplings for 500 rupees a day ($3), which is roughly half of what a construction worker would normally earn. It's not a lot, but it's enough to get by, and that can mean the difference between survival and starvation. Al Jazeera reported,"As the coronavirus pandemic struck Pakistan, the 10 Billion Trees campaign was initially halted as part of social distancing orders put in place to slow the spread of the virus, which has infected more than 14,880 people in Pakistan, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. But earlier this month, the prime minister granted an exemption to allow the forestry agency to restart the programme and create more than 63,600 jobs, according to government officials." The program is employing three times the number of planters as it normally does, and the planting season has been extended from May (its usual end) throughout June, in order to keep workers employed. Most of these jobs have been created in rural areas and have "a focus on hiring women and unemployed daily workers – mainly young people – who were migrating home from locked-down cities." All workers are being told to wear masks and maintain two meters of distance from others.
Wildfires Are Burning 5 Million Acres in Siberia and Eastern Russia - Wildfires in Siberia and the Russian Far East are as much as 10 times worse compared to this time last year, as the climate crisis and the coronavirus pandemic join forces to fan the flames. As of April 27, ten times the amount of land was on fire in the Krasnoyarsk region compared to the same time last year, The Siberian Times reported. In Transbaikal, meanwhile, three times as much land was burning, and in the Amur region, there were 1.5 times as many fires."A critical situation with fires has developed in Siberia and the Far East," Emergencies Minister Evgeny Zinichev said in a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin reported by The Siberian Times. Experts and agencies outside Russia have also reported on the extent of the fires. London School of Economics geographer Thomas Smith told Earther that around five million acres of Russian forest and grassland were on fire, and the largest fire was one million acres total, around the size of Glacier National Park. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) also captured the fires from space April 27. "On April 23, 2020, strong winds helped to push fires set by locals to dry grass out of control," NASA wrote. "The regions of Kemerovo and Novosibirsk among others have been the hardest hit to date. Nine Siberian regions have been affected by these wildfires. Clouds of smoke have swept across the Siberian landscape."In Novosibirsk, around 50 homes were burned and in Kemerovo, 27, The Siberian Times reported. Human activity provides the immediate spark for the fires. Farmers burn dry grass even though the practice was banned in 2015, and, this year, the coronavirus lockdown has made the situation worse. "People self-isolated outdoors and forgot about fire safety rules," Russian forestry chief Sergei Anoprienko told The Siberian Times. "In some regions, the temperature is already around 30C, and people just can't keep themselves in their apartments. People rushed outdoors, and as a result we have a surge of thermal points." "A less snowy winter, an abnormal winter, and insufficient soil moisture are factors that create the conditions for the transition of landscape fires to settlements," Zinichev told The Siberian Times. He also said unusually hot weather was combining with strong winds to fan the flames.
NY, Other States to Argue EPA Fails to Enforce Pollution ‘Drift’ - New York, New Jersey, and New York City are set to argue Thursday that the Environmental Protection Agency wrongfully denied the states’ petition to act on pollution coming from nine upwind states in a virtual oral argument before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. The argument focuses on New York’s petition under the Clean Air Act’s “good neighbor” provision to impose emission limits on 350 industrial sources of nitrogen oxides, about half of which are coal-fired power plants. The provision requires states to remove emissions that are significantly affecting air quality in a downwind state. Nitrogen oxides can contribute to ground-level ozone, a lung irritant that can worsen breathing conditions such as asthma. The EPA says in its brief filed April 2 that the petition, which it denied, was “materially deficient.” The agency says New York failed to include the type or location of the pollution sources, their existing controls or requirements, and the cost of implementing limits. The state also failed to show its requested emissions controls would be cost-effective, the agency says, a requirement under the good neighbor provision. “EPA did all that the law requires—and more,” according to the agency. The states argue in their brief filed March 27 that the EPA is being unreasonable in requiring New York to collect sourcing and other information. The state doesn’t have direct authority over the emissions sources, the brief says, compared to the agency which is authorized under the CAA to demand emissions records.
5 dead, hundreds in hospital after gas leak at India chemical plant - At least five people have been killed and several hundred hospitalised after a gas leak at a chemicals plant on the east coast of India, police said Thursday. They said that the gas had leaked out of two 5,000-tonne tanks that had been unattended due to India's coronavirus lockdown in place since late March. "We can confirm at least five deaths right now. More will be confirmed later. At least 70 people in the nearby hospitals are in an unconscious state and overall 200 to 500 locals are still getting treatment (at the hospitals)," said police official Swaroop Rani in Visakhapatnam. The plant operated by LG Polymers is located in the outskirts of Visakhapatnam, an industrial port city in the state of Andhra Pradesh. The city and the surrounding area are home to around five million people. The gas "was left there because of the lockdown. It led to a chemical reaction and heat was produced inside the tanks, and the gas leaked because of that," Rani, an assistant commissioner, told AFP. "We received an emergency call from the local villagers around 3.30 am in the morning today. They said there was some gas in the air," she said. "We reached there immediately. One could feel the gas in the air and it was not possible for any of us to stay there for more than a few minutes. Prepared rescue workers started working from around 4.00 am." India witnessed in December 1984 one of the worst industrial disasters in history when gas leaked from a pesticide plant in the central city of Bhopal. Around 3,500 people, mainly in shanties around the plant operated by Union Carbide, died in the days that followed and thousands more in the following years. People continue to suffer its after-effects to this day. Government statistics say that at least 100,000 people living near to the Unnion Carbide plant have been victims of chronic illnesses. Survivors still suffer from ailments such as respiratory and kidney problems, hormonal imbalances, mental illness and several forms of cancer. New generations have been made ill by the polluted groundwater and poisonous breastmilk fed to them from birth. To this day, children are still born disfigured with webbed hands and feet, weak immune systems, stunted growth and congenital disorders owing to the gas that affected their mothers.
More evacuated from around India chemical plant after gas leak - Officials in India were on Friday morning evacuating more people from the area around a chemical factory that leaked toxic gas, after at least 11 people were killed in a leak from the site on Thursday. There was confusion about whether the wider evacuation was the result of a renewed leak at the LG Chem plant in the eastern state of Andhra Pradesh or by concern that higher temperatures in the factory could trigger another leak. "The situation is tense," district fire officer N Surendra Anand told Reuters news agency early on Friday, adding that people in a 5km (3 mile) radius of the factory in the east coast city of Visakhapatnam were being moved out. Hours earlier, authorities had said that the situation was under control at the plant on the outskirts of Visakhapatnam, after hundreds of people were sickened by the fumes. The factory is operated by LG Polymers, a unit of South Korea's biggest petrochemical maker, LG Chem. The Seoul-based company said on Friday the expanded evacuation was a precaution. "There was not a second leak and LG Chem has asked the police to evacuate residents as a precautionary measure as there are concerns that tank temperatures could rise," the company said in a statement. "We are taking necessary measures, including putting water into the tank." At least 11 people were killed and several hundred admitted to hospitals after Thursday's leak. A further 1,500 people were evacuated, mostly from a neighbouring village, some 14km (9 miles) inland from Visakhapatnam. Footage on Indian television channels showed people, including women and children, lying motionless in the streets of Visakhapatnam, an industrial port city.
India chemical leak: more evacuations amid fears of second gas release - Indian officials have evacuated more people from the area around a chemical plant in the south of the country that leaked toxic gas, killing at least 11 people and sickening hundreds more.There was confusion about whether the wider evacuation orders were sparked by a renewed leak at the LG Chem factory in Andhra Pradesh, or by the fear that rising temperatures at the plant could lead to another leak. “The situation is tense,” N Surendra Anand, a fire officer in Visakhapatnam district, told Reuters, adding that people within a 5km (3.1 mile) radius were being moved out because of renewed emissions from the plant. However, LG Chem, which is owned by the Korean conglomerate LG, said on Friday the decision to extend the evacuation area from 3.5km had been ordered as a precaution. “There was not a second leak and LG Chem has asked the police to evacuate residents as a precautionary measure as there are concerns that tank temperatures would rise,” South Korea’s biggest petrochemical maker said in a statement. “We are taking necessary measures, including putting water into the tank.” Srijana Gummalla, commissioner of the Visakhapatnam municipal corporation, said gas emissions had been fluctuating through the day and had largely subsided. Police began urging people to move out of their houses and into waiting buses at around midnight, said local resident Sheikh Salim, who lives about 2.5km from the plant. Footage on Indian television channels showed people, including women and children, slumped motionless in the streets after locals raised the alarm in the early hours. “There was utter confusion and panic. People were unable to breathe, they were gasping for air. Those who were trying to escape collapsed on the roads - kids, women and all,” local resident Kumar Reddy, 24, told reporters. Local police commissioner RK Meena, said that by Thursday afternoon 11 people had been confirmed dead. According to the Times of India, the dead included an eight-year-old girl, and 5,000 people had fallen sick. Residents complained of breathing problems, rashes and sore eyes, it added. Authorities advised people to wear wet clothes and masks, avoid eating uncovered food and consume bananas and milk to “neutralise the effect of the gas”.
Indian protesters carry bodies into gas leak plant - Angry protesters carrying bodies stormed an Indian chemical plant on Saturday to demand the facility's closure after a toxic gas leak killed 12 people days earlier. Thursday's pre-dawn accident in the industrial port city of Visakhapatnam injured hundreds and knocked many unconscious as they tried to flee the area. State government officials arrived to conduct a safety tour of the plant, owned by South Korea's LG Chem, when a crowd of about 300 people barged past police and security guards. Some helped cart stretchers bearing three victims of the disaster, their feet sticking out from under the black canvas covers that otherwise shrouded the bodies. They chanted slogans demanding justice for the dead and the shutdown of the plant before they were pushed back by security. Relatives of the dead stood nearby, many in tears, while others relived the horror of the sudden accident. "I saw people carrying their children on their shoulders looking for water. They could not move because of the gas, I thought they were dead," said one man. At least three children were among the dead and dozens remain in hospital. Andhra Pradesh state police chief Gautam Sawang said the situation at the facility was now "under control". Authorities have started a manslaughter investigation over the leak and India's environmental tribunal has already fined the company $6.2m as a preliminary punishment. Late on Thursday, an evacuation zone around the plant was widened and hundreds more people were moved to safety after fears of a new leak. Some have since been allowed to return. Police said the plant had been left idle because of India's nationwide coronavirus lockdown and suspect the leak was caused by gas left in a tanker that overheated.
Extreme Mother's Day Weekend: Record Cold Into the South, Snow in the Northeast, Potential New England Bomb Cyclone | The Weather Channel -An extreme weather pattern is setting up for Mother's Day weekend that will shatter dozens of temperature records, wring out strange May snow in the interior Northeast and possibly set May pressure records both in parts of New England and northern Canada.This weather pattern would grab the attention of meteorologists in the middle of winter, much less the second weekend of May. Blocking high pressure near Greenland and another "omega block" of high pressure bulging northward from the West Coast of the U.S. to the Arctic Ocean northeast of Alaska will work together to force the jet stream to take a sharp southward plunge over the Great Lakes and Northeast. There are several parts of this pattern that could be record-setting.The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore noted temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere – for meteorologists, the 500-millibar level – could reach minus 40 degrees (Celsius and Fahrenheit) over the Great Lakes this weekend, a first anywhere in the U.S. in May, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center dating to the mid-20th century.Secondly, intensifying low pressure in the Northeast may become a bomb cyclone – a drop in the storm's central pressure by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less – by the time it moves into the Gulf of Maine on Saturday. The storm could be strong enough to set all-time May pressure records along the Maine coast, according to data compiled by David Roth, a meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.As the frontal system moves through the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Friday, the air will be just cold enough to produce some wet snow in parts of the interior by Friday afternoon into Friday night. On Saturday, snow, possibly heavy, is expected to continue in parts of northern New England, particularly in Maine, as the intense potential bomb cyclone wraps moisture into sufficiently cold air.
Polar vortex to unload historic Arctic blast in the East, as blistering heat roasts West - The Washington Post -- A contorted jet stream — with a massive bulge of high pressure in the West and a downstream dip, or trough, in the East that resembles tall ocean waves — is cleaving the United States into two seasons. This weather pattern is leading to record heat in the West and Southwest, including Arizona, California, Nevada and New Mexico, while record cold descends upon the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a result of a lobe of the polar vortex.Both temperature extremes are unusually severe for this time of year. In the East, after a winter lacking in polar vortex-induced cold air outbreaks, a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex is breaking off from the main circulation over the Arctic and is swinging down from Canada toward New England.The low temperatures that will result are almost certain to break records.Meanwhile, in the West, numerous weather observation sites are expected to eclipse the century mark Thursday and Friday, for example. High temperatures are running at least 15 degrees above average in a zone from Southern California to Texas, and these same areas have seen extreme heat since late last month, compounding the effects. Highly amplified jet stream patterns are typically associated with weather extremes, and this one is no exception. It’s leading to a peculiar setup, one in which, on Saturday, Anchorage will be 15 degrees higher than Washington, and a cross-country flight from Los Angeles to New York would be a journey from midsummer to midwinter. In the East, temperatures are set to tumble as the polar vortex — largely absent all winter — descends over New England beginning early Friday. With it will come frigid upper-air temperatures that could obliterate all-time weather balloon temperature records, and translate to surface temperatures more characteristic of March.In fact, anticipated temperatures at the 500 millibar level — which marks the halfway mark of the atmosphere’s mass with height — would in some cases be record-setting even during December. That illustrates that the air mass, which is originating in the Arctic, would be unusual even during the winter. For this to occur in May is an outlier event. Temperatures in the eastern United States will be the lowest on the planet compared to average.
UK Cooperative Extension Service fears millions of dollars could be lost due to cold temperatures - The forecast shows potential historic cold on the way this weekend, an unusual time for temperatures to be in the 20s, and a delicate time for farmers. Experts with the UK Cooperative Extension Service project millions of dollars could be lost because of the cold temperatures in the forecast. "We're talking somewhere close to 30 degrees below normal," UK Ag Meteorologist Matt Dixon said. That's not the kind of record farmers want to break, especially this late in the season. "Right now, about 50 percent of our wheat is at a stage where it's the most sensitive to cold temperatures," Extension Professor for Grain Crops Chad Lee said. Cold temperatures are exactly what's expected for the upcoming weekend with the potential for a hard freeze. It's a gloomy forecast in more ways than one for area farmers. "On the wheat alone we have the potential to lose several million dollars," Lee said. "If the forecasts are accurate and we get the temperatures projected, it could be absolutely devastating." That, of course, has a domino effect. "That's millions of dollars that don't go into the local economies," Lee said. "It's also wheat that doesn't get put into make cookies, donuts, cakes, and all the things we enjoy to eat."
One-Third of Humanity Could Live in Sahara-Level Heat by 2070 - If nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, one third of humanity could live in conditions as hot as the Sahara Desert by 2070. This sobering conclusion, published in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Monday, was based on an international study of the climate conditions humans have preferred over the past 6,000 years and how the climate crisis might alter them. "The numbers are flabbergasting. I literally did a double take when I first saw them," study coauthor Tim Lenton of Exeter University told The Guardian. "I've previously studied climate tipping points, which are usually considered apocalyptic. But this hit home harder. This puts the threat in very human terms." The researchers first set out to determine if humans had a "climate niche," or ideal temperature range they tend to settle in, much like other animals, The New York Times explained. They found that, throughout human history, we have consistently chosen locations with a relatively narrow temperature range. The majority of people now live in places with a mean temperature of 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit while a smaller number live in places with a mean of 68 to 77 degrees. Most human settlements from 6,000 years ago were placed in areas with the same mean temperatures, the researchers found. This human vulnerability to climate extremes is bad news for the future. In a business-as-usual scenario, 3.5 billion people will live in areas with a mean temperature above 84 degrees Fahrenheit or 29 degrees Celsius within 50 years."This would bring 3.5 billion people into near-unlivable conditions," study coauthor Jens-Christian Svenning of Aarhus University in Denmark told iNews.The countries most at risk from extreme heat are India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan. In India, more than 1.2 billion people could be exposed to these temperatures."I think it is fair to say that average temperatures over 29C are unlivable," Scheffer told The Guardian. "You'd have to move or adapt. But there are limits to adaptation. If you have enough money and energy, you can use air conditioning and fly in food and then you might be OK. But that is not the case for most people."
It’s already getting too hot and humid in some places for humans to survive -A combination of heat and humidity so extreme that it’s unendurable isn’t just a problem for the future — those conditions are already here, a new study finds. Off-the-chart readings that were previously thought to be nearly nonexistent on the planet today have popped up around the globe, and unyielding temperatures are becoming more common.Extreme conditions reaching roughly 115 degrees Fahrenheit on the heat-index scale — a measurement of both heat and humidity that’s often referred to as what the temperature “feels like” — doubled between 1979 and 2017, the study found. Humidity and heat are a particularly deadly combination, since humidity messes with the body’s ability to cool itself off by sweating. The findings imply that harsh conditions that scientists foresaw as an impending result of climate change are becoming reality sooner than expected.“We may be closer to a real tipping point on this than we think,” Radley Horton, co-author of the new study published today in the journalScience Advances, said in a statement. Hisprevious research had projected that the world wouldn’t experience heat and humidity beyond human tolerance for decades.More intense and frequent heat events are one of the symptoms of climate change, a lot of research has shown. But most of those studies were based on readings that looked at averages over a wide area over a long period of time. Instead, Horton and his co-authors looked closely at hourly data from 7,877 weather stations around the world. They used the“wet bulb” centigrade scale, which measures other factors such as wind speed and solar radiation on top of heat and humidity. That’s how they found more than a thousand readings of severe heat and humidity, reaching wet bulb readings of 31 degrees Celsius, that were previously thought to be very rare. Along the Persian Gulf, they saw more than a dozen readings above what’s thought to be the human tolerance limit of 35 degrees Celsius on the wet bulb scale. That’s the highest wet bulb reading that scientific literature has ever documented. In 2015, the city of Bandar Mahshahr in Iran experienced a wet bulb reading just under 35 degrees Celsius. At more than 160 degrees Fahrenheit on the heat-index scale, that’s about 30 degrees higher than where the National Weather Service’s heat-index range ends — and it’s a scenario that climate models hadn’t forecast to happen until the middle of the century.
Experts Are Predicting A “Record Breaking” Hurricane Season For 2020 -- 2020 has been off to a start so bad that it is truly historical, and experts are predicting that things could get even worse in the coming months. As the world is starting to come to terms with the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic crisis, scientists are now warning about swarms of “murder hornets” that could decimate honey bee populations. If all that isn’t bad enough, we have natural disasters to worry about as well, and hurricanes, in particular, are supposed especially bad this year. In fact, scientists are predicting that this could be one of the worst hurricane seasons on record.According to predictions from researchers at Penn State University and The Earth System Science Center, the 2020 hurricane season could see up to 24 tropical storms that are large enough to be named. A hurricane season has not even come close to getting this bad since 2012.This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. We predict one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (20±4 named storms) | "The 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast":https://t.co/MNs6uvpX0Z@Penn_State @PSUClimate @PSUEarth @PSUEMSpic.twitter.com/VfKa89cuNl — Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) April 27, 2020 According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces an average of 12 named storms, 6 of which are hurricanes. The 2019 season had 18 named storms, matching 1969 for the fourth most active season in the past 150 years. According to the weather channel, a storm has to have sustained winds of 74 MPH or more to be considered a hurricane, while a tropical storm is listed for anything 73 MPH. Many tropical storms often become hurricanes as they follow their trajectory and pick up speed. The CSU outlook estimations are based on more than 30 years of data which similar characteristics of sea level pressure and sea surface temperatures in the oceans Atlantic and eastern Pacific. The data was collected between 1981 and 2010. Other estimates from places like Colorado State University have confirmed these findings. According to Axios, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is drafting a document that lists preparations for surviving a pandemic during hurricane season. This is likely because every state in the country has declared a state of emergency, which is unprecedented, and it means that hurricanes will be approaching areas that are already vulnerable.
Bioluminescent waves dazzle surfers in California: ‘Never seen anything like it’ --Mother nature has provided a radical gift to nighttime beach-goers in southern California, in the form of bioluminescent waves that crash and froth with an otherworldly lightThe event occurs every few years along the coast of southern California, though locals say this year’s sea sparkle is especially vibrant, possibly related to historic rains that soaked the region and generated algal bloom.For some, this year’s light show was especially meaningful, coming just as beaches began to reopen after an almost month-long closure due to coronavirus.Dale Huntington, a 37-year-old pastor at a church in south-eastern San Diego, got up at 3am after beaches reopened to surf the iridescent waves.“I’ve been surfing for 20 years now, and I’ve never seen anything like it”, Huntington said. Spectators watch bioluminescent plankton light up the shoreline as they churn in the waves at Dockweiler state beach. Photograph: Mark J Terrill/APThe neon waves owe their color to blooming microscopic plants called phytoplankton. By day, the organisms collect on the water’s surface to give the water a reddish-brown hue, known as the red tide. By night, the algae put on a light show, dazzling most brightly in turbulent waters.One photographer off the coast of Newport Beach, where crowds in recent weeks have protested against closures, recorded a dolphin jetting through bioluminescence like a sea spectre.The phosphorescent display has captured the attention of locals in southern California, with many emerging from shelter-in-place restrictions to catch a glimpse of the surreal scenery.One San Diegan, who lives in a neighborhood along the coast, implored local officials to restrict access to the beach, complaining that the red tide has drawn large crowds comparable to a “Fourth of July on steroids”. For surfers like Huntington, the spectacle has provided joy and relief amid the challenges of the pandemic. “My favorite part was paddling out – it was almost like there was a glow stick around your hand,” he described. “My board left a bioluminescent wake. There were a few of us out there and we were giggling, grown men shouting ‘this is so cool’ and splashing around like kids in the bathtub.”
Antarctica Is Melting Like Never Before - A new paper has emerged with fresh data from NASA providing a visual of Antarctica’s rapidly melting ice.The recent data is presented in a paper published in the journal Science on April 30, 2020. Data from space imparts more detailed pictures of Antarctica’s ice, how and where the ice is accumulating or melting rapidly.The data fill in any questions as to where the ice goes when it melts. The concern is this could happen at a quicker and quicker pace, contributing to rising sea levels that threaten people, cities, and countries around the world. The information will aid researchers as they try to assimilate and comprehend the largest driver of ice loss in Antarctica, the thinning of floating ice shelves that allows more ice to flow from the interior to the ocean. The study is the first to be published using data from ICESat-2. Many more studies are planned.Many have documented, and researchers have known, that the continent is losing mass overall as the climate changes. Massive glacier caving’s continue in the north and have been documented by scientists and even featured in film.The data show that the continent is gaining more ice in some areas, like parts of East Antarctica. In other areas, it is losing ice, and more rapidly. Quick melting is occurring in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.The East Antarctica ice growth is presumed to be from extra precipitation in the region, which would match up with expected results of climate change. “While we can’t say that these changes are related to contemporary climate change, we can say that these are the patterns of change we expect to see in a warming world,” Ben Smith, a study author who is a glaciologist at the University of Washington, said.The New York Times reports, “Helen A. Fricker, an author of the paper, said that scientists have tried to study the link between thinning shelves and what is called grounded ice, but have been hampered because most observations were of one area or the other, and made at different times. ‘Now we’ve got it all on the same map, which is a really powerful thing,’ said Dr. Fricker, a glaciologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif.”
5G Tower Installed On World's Highest Peak Mount Everest -- The world’s highest-altitude base station at about 6,500 meters above sea-level north of Mount Everest now has the ultrafast 5G signals coverage on “the highest peak of the world”. Organizers, China Mobile Hong Kong (CMHK), and Huawei started operations after they installed the world’s highest 5G communication towers in the remote region of Tibet. CMHK announced to the world that it successfully operated its dual Gigabit network and “8K live broadcasts on 5G network” was not a dream anymore in its official press release on the website. According to the state-run telecom giant, Huawei’s 5G AAU and SPN technologies have been applied near about the China-Nepal border, with its north part located in Xigaze prefecture of Tibet Autonomous Region, state media reports confirmed. The network is maintained by network specialists stationed 24/7 at the altitudes of 5,300 meters and above. As of April 30, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the summit, the Chinese mobile companies announced the deployment and installation of its 5G AAU, which they claimed, is highly integrated into a compact size, according to reports. Further, they claimed that the 5G fits particularly well for infrastructure in extreme environments such as Mount Everest. A unique network, which is “stand-alone plus non-stand alone” (SA+NSA) mode connects five 5G at the base stations. Meanwhile, Huawei’s Massive MIMO with three-dimensional narrow beams and SPN technology makes lightning speed and large bandwidth possible, as per Huawei's statement.
How to stop a climate vote? Threaten a ‘no social distancing’ protest - San Luis Obispo was on the verge of passing an ambitious climate change policy when the proposal’s most vocal critic, Eric Hofmann, found a trump card: fear of the coronavirus. Elected officials in this city along California’s Central Coast planned to vote on an energy code that would encourage construction of all-electric buildings, which don’t use gas appliances and aren’t hooked up to the gas grid. It’s an increasingly popular tool for cities looking to phase out fossil fuels — and a threat to the gas industry, which has mounted a vigorous counteroffensive. On March 16, Hofmann sent an email to San Luis Obispo officials that left them shocked. “If the city council intends to move forward with another reading on a gas ban I can assure you there will be no social distancing in place,” he wrote. “I strongly urge the city council to kick this can down the road to adhere to public health safety measures. Please don’t force my hand in bussing in hundreds and hundreds of pissed off people potentially adding to this pandemic.” Hofmann is president of Utility Workers Union of America Local 132, which represents thousands of employees of Southern California Gas Co. — one of the nation’s largest gas utilities, and a prominent crusader against local efforts to phase out gas. He also chairs the board of directors of Californians for Balanced Energy Solutions, a pro-gas advocacy group that has received funding from SoCalGas and worked closely with the utility to generate opposition to all-electric building policies. “We will pull permits and close streets and have a massive protest on April 7th. Now is not the time to do this,” Hofmann wrote. “Please tell mayor harmon and the rest of the council for the sake of people’s health, that their efforts are better focused on how to better deal with this pandemic than to stir up all the emotions of people losing their jobs along with this disease.” The next week, San Luis Obispo officials scrapped plans for an April 7 vote on the energy code. The vote has not been rescheduled.
Toledo, Oregon mayors join effort to ease ethanol mandates - Toledo Blade -In nearly identical letters, Toledo Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz and Oregon Mayor Michael Seferian have asked the Trump administration to ease up on biofuel requirements for Toledo-area refineries — especially the ethanol mandate.Ethanol, which is most commonly produced from corn, has for years been a gasoline additive used to help domestic supplies of gasoline last longer, curb pollution, and reduce America’s reliance on foreign oil.That has been reduced dramatically over the past decade because of large volumes of previously trapped reserves of oil and natural gas being recovered through the horizontal drilling technique of fracturing shale, or fracking.Ethanol usage also has been a source of controversy for years by critics who view it as a farm subsidy. In their letters, the two mayors implore U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler to soften the requirements for usage of ethanol and other biofuels because of the coronavirus pandemic’s imposed financial hardship on the refining industry.Easing up on the requirements, they said, would lower the industry’s production costs.They noted President Trump acknowledging during his visit to Toledo earlier this year that this area’s economy is linked to advanced manufacturing. They both noted this area is “the glass capital of the world and home of Fiat Chrysler’s Jeep assembly plant.”“Manufacturing is central to economic progress, with a high multiplier effect that creates numerous direct and indirect jobs,” both of their letters stated. The documents also said every refining job supports 16 other jobs, and that the two local refineries — the BP/Husky Refinery in Oregon and the PBF Toledo Refinery in East Toledo — supply “more than 30 percent of Ohio’s gasoline and 42 percent of gasoline in southeastern Michigan.”“This is essential fuel residents use to get to work and school, to power generators and outdoor machinery, and take road trips to visit family,” their letters both stated.The letters — which neither mayor explained why they so closely resemble each other — also said the two Toledo-area refineries are important to regional air travel in that they supply the “vast majority of the fuel to Detroit Metro Airport, airports throughout Ohio, and even the Indianapolis and Pittsburgh airports.” “The closure of either refinery would make regional jet fuel supplies harder to come by and consumer and airline costs significantly higher, threatening air travel and, thus, larger swaths of the Ohio, Michigan, and the Midwest economy,” their letters stated.
Iowa Lawmakers: Biofuel Producers Need Relief Aid — Midwest lawmakers say biofuel producers should be getting the same support and protection as oil companies. Coronavirus shutdowns have slashed the demand for gasoline, and while the White House is pledging to buy 75 million barrels of oil, ethanol producers say their requests for help have gone ignored. “We’re seeing the administration continue to side with big oil,” Rep. Abby Finkenauer, D-Iowa, said. Finkenauer says the White House is turning its back on Midwest corn farmers by rejecting aid for biofuel producers while pledging millions to prop up oil companies. “It’s just unconscionable to me when our farmers have been hit so hard over the last two years,” Finkenauer said. The farmers grow corn for ethanol, which is blended into gasoline. As millions of Americans have stopped driving because of stay-at-home orders, prices for oil and ethanol have dropped to nearly nothing. “If you’re trying to help the oil industry because they’re in economic trouble, we got the same problem for ethanol,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said. Illinois Democrat Cheri Bustos says the biofuel industry is also huge in her state. “Iowa and Illinois — we’re the number one and and number two corn producers,” Bustos said. “You can bet that this is a fight we’re not going to lie down.” Bustos and Finkeanuer want the U.S. Department of Agriculture to reconsider its decision to refuse farm aid for biofuel growers. And they’re slamming the United States Environmental Protection Agency, which is considering a plan to allow oil refineries to stop blending ethanol into gasoline. Grassley says he will work to include help in the next coronavirus relief bill. “We’ll have to see what they’re trying to do to help the oil industry and we’ll see what we’ll do to help the ethanol industry at the same time because the two are tied together,” Grassley said. But farmers may have a long wait since the House is not in session and the Senate just returned to work on Monday..
US wind industry installed over 1,800 megawatts in first quarter, but the coronavirus remains a risk - The first quarter of 2020 saw the U.S. wind industry install more than 1,800 megawatts (MW) of new capacity, a report from the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has revealed. According to the AWEA's report, 11 new projects with a total capacity of 1,821 MW commenced operations in the first three months of the year. In a statement issued Wednesday, the AWEA noted that this represented more than double the installations compared with the first quarter in 2019. While there are clear positives in the report – which also said construction activity hit a new record in the first three months of the year – the coronavirus is casting a shadow over the sector. The AWEA acknowledged this, stating that the pandemic was "posing significant challenges to the U.S. wind industry." Citing its own analysis from March, the trade association said an estimated 25 gigawatts of planned projects – which represent $35 billion in investments – were at risk. The AWEA has said that economic losses "will have an outsized impact on rural America," where 99% of wind energy projects are situated. In another sign that "clean energy" in the U.S. is being impacted by the coronavirus, over 106,000 people working in the sector lost their jobs in March, according to research released earlier this month. The analysis of Department of Labor data, released by Environmental Entrepreneurs, the American Council on Renewable Energy, E4TheFuture and BW Research Partnership, painted a challenging picture for the industry. For the purposes of the analysis, the term "clean energy" encompassed a range of areas including: renewables such as solar and wind; energy storage; energy efficiency; and "clean fuels." Looking ahead, the analysis projected that over 500,000 people working in clean energy — 15% of the sector's workforce — would lose their jobs in the following months unless "quick and substantive action" was taken by both the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and Congress.
TVA getting more power from renewables than coal this year | Chattanooga Times Free Press - For the first time in more than six decades, the Tennessee Valley Authority got more power from renewable sources than from burning coal during the first three months of 2020.With electricity sales down due to the mild weather and COVID-19 virus shutdowns, TVA used its coal-fired power plants to generate only 12% of its power needs in the past quarter. A generation ago, TVA's coal plants supplied more than two-thirds of the utility's electricity.Last month with most schools, restaurants and stores shut down, TVA at times turned off its 25 remaining coal-fired units and relied entirely upon its nuclear, hydro, natural gas, solar and purchased power supplies to meet the electricity needs in its seven- state region.Despite President Donald Trump's appeal to TVA and others to revive "beautiful coal," TVA has phased out more than half of the 59 coal-fired units it once operated, including the shutdown of its last unit at the Paradise Fossil Plant in Kentucky in February. At the same time, abundant rainfall pushed up power production at TVA's 29 power-generating dams and the addition of more solar farms in the Tennessee Valley boosted power generated from the sun. The biggest share of TVA's power, 43% in the first quarter, came from TVA's seven nuclear power reactors in Tennessee and Alabama. TVA is studying whether to add even more atomic power by building the nation's first small modular reactor to help supply Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Green recovery can revive virus-hit economies and tackle climate change, study says - (Reuters) - Massive programmes of green public investment would be the most cost-effective way both to revive virus-hit economies and strike a decisive blow against climate change, top U.S. and British economists said in a study published on Tuesday. With co-authors including Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz from Columbia University and prominent British climate expert Lord Nicholas Stern, the findings are likely to fuel calls for “green recoveries” gathering momentum around the world. “The COVID-19 crisis could mark a turning point in progress on climate change,” the authors wrote, adding that much would depend on policy choices made in the next six months. With major economies drawing up enormous economic packages to cushion the shock of the coronavirus pandemic, many investors, politicians and businesses see a unique opportunity to drive a shift to a low-carbon future. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for green recoveries last week, and the concept has emerged as a political fault line from the United States to India and South Korea. While think-tanks and investor groups have also been making the case for tailoring recoveries to accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels, the study aimed to assess such proposals in the light of new data. The authors examined more than 700 economic stimulus policies launched during or since the 2008 financial crisis, and surveyed 231 experts from 53 countries, including senior officials from finance ministries and central banks. The results suggested that green projects such as boosting renewable energy or energy efficiency create more jobs, deliver higher short-term returns and lead to increased long-term cost savings relative to traditional stimulus measures.
600 MW OWF in Gulf of Mexico Would Bring 4,470 Jobs and USD 445 Million – Study - A 600 MW offshore wind farm in the Gulf of Mexico, with a commercial operation date of 2030, would bring some 4,470 jobs and USD 445 million in gross domestic product (GDP) during construction, according to a study released by the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). During the operational stage, a project of this capacity would create around 150 ongoing jobs and bring in USD 14 million annually. BOEM’s Gulf of Mexico OCS office issued two new studies on renewable energy in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of April, developed in cooperation with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). In the Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies in the Gulf of Mexico study, different offshore renewable energy technologies were analysed to determine which are best suited for development in the Gulf of Mexico. The renewable energy resources evaluated included wind, wave, tidal, current, solar, deepwater source cooling, and hydrogen. Offshore wind was identified as the leading technology, as it showed the greatest resource potential for the Gulf of Mexico and is the most mature technology of those analysed for the region, according to BOEM. Following the identification of the most suitable technology, BOEM and NREL further analysed its economic feasibility for selected sites in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Offshore Wind in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico: Regional Economic Modeling & Site-Specific Analyses study, BOEM and NREL analysed the economic impact of a 600 MW project at a reference site with a commercial operation date of 2030. The site-specific economic analysis indicated that a single offshore wind project of this size could support approximately 4,470 jobs and USD 445 million in gross domestic product (GDP) during construction and an ongoing 150 jobs and USD 14 million annually from operation and maintenance labor, materials, and services. The analysis did not include the likely further jobs or impacts in the Gulf of Mexico that may be created while supporting offshore wind projects built in other regions of the U.S., or the world.
Amid pandemic, U.S. renewable power sources have topped coal for 40 days - (Reuters) - Electricity generated by renewable sources like solar, wind and hydro has exceeded coal-fired power in the United States for a record 40 straight days, according to a report based on U.S. government data released on Monday. The boost for renewables is due to a seasonal increase in low-cost solar and hydro power generation, alongside an overall slump in electricity demand caused by coronavirus-related stay-at-home orders, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Coal tends to be the first power source to be cut by utilities when demand falls because subsidized renewable sources are cheaper to operate and often backed by state clean-energy mandates. The IEEFA report, which is based on preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration going back to late March, reflects how the coronavirus pandemic could accelerate a shift away from coal-fired power, despite Trump administration efforts to prop up the ailing industry. The Department of Energy has warned that an over-reliance on solar and wind power can reduce the dependability of the grid because its generation is intermittent, and that fossil fuel plants that can store fuel on site are more reliable. Every day between March 25 and May 3, solar, wind and hydro plants together produced more electricity than the nation’s coal-fired plants - accounting for about a fifth of the grid’s power, IEEFA said. The longest back-to-back stretch previously was nine days in 2019. In total in 2019, renewables beat coal on just 38 days, IEEFA said. IEEFA added it is possible that renewable energy in the United States could exceed coal on an annual basis for the first time this year, a year earlier than it initially forecast, if the power consumption trends caused by the health crisis continue.
When coal plants decrease pollution or shut down, people have fewer asthma attacks - Asthma attacks decreased significantly among residents near coal-fired power plants after the plants shut down or upgraded their emission controls, according to a new study. Coal-fired power plants emit air pollution that includes mercury, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. Living near coal-fired power plants is linked to higher rates of respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and cancer, and premature death. According to a study published this week in the journal Nature Energy, when those plants shut down or upgrade their emissions controls, rescue inhaler use, emergency room visits and hospitalizations for asthma all decrease among nearby residents. The study is the first to show decreased inhaler use following a reduction in pollution from coal plants, and builds on previous evidence that living near these facilities leads to increased asthma exacerbations. In the months following scrubber installation, Casey and her colleagues saw an average reduction of inhaler use of about 17 percent, with continued declining use after that. In 2014, coal-fired power plants accounted for 63 percent of sulfur dioxide emissions in the nation. The 2012 federal Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) rule required all coal-fired plants to install scrubbers that reduce toxics like mercury and sulfur dioxide in emissions by 2015 (or 2016 if they got a special extension). During 2015, plants that had recently installed this equipment reduced their sulfur dioxide emissions by 49 percent.
Utilities, gas industry coordinate to oppose Ohio village’s clean energy goal | Energy News Network --Dominion Energy’s opposition to an Ohio village’s clean energy proposal appears to be part of a larger trend nationwide in which gas utilities are becoming more active at the local government level.Unlike other cases involving bans on new gas hook-ups, however, Bratenahl’s proposed resolution stated a general goal of achieving 100% clean energy, with no specific plan or enforcement provisions. The resolution would have set a goal of fully transitioning to clean energy for village-owned facilities by 2025 and for the general community of about 1,200 people by 2035. The proposal surfaced in November in the wake of state lawmakers gutting the state’s renewable energy standards last year. The 2025 goal for Bratenahl was “probably unreasonable,” Keith Benjamin told his fellow village council members at their Nov. 20 meeting. “But I think that it’s important to at least have this conversation and the [legislative] committee agreed.”Three months later, the resolution was indefinitely tabled.“Good news in Ohio,” wrote Paul Briggs, Dominion Energy’s director of Midwest state and local government affairs in a Feb. 24 email, giving an update on the resolution. “It may come up again but for now [it’s] dead.”The email, obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute, went to more than 80 recipients, including dozens in the natural gas industry, along with representatives at FirstEnergy, several large industry groups and others. An earlier email from Briggs that month noted the American Gas Association was “continuing efforts to form a national coalition to combat bans and are urging states to do the same.”Yet another email from Briggs that month urged its recipients to call or write council members in Bratenahl and South Euclid, where a similar resolution was under discussion. Names and contact information for council members were provided.
Renewable-energy plan for PES refinery site is not dead -- A settlement has been approved in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware that resolves Point Breeze Renewable Energy’s objection to the sale of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery complex on grounds that it had a lease for 23 acres there to build a $120 million biogas plant. The renewable energy plant, to be developed by RNG Energy Solutions, signed an agreement with PES in 2017. A plan was presented to and praised by city officials in 2018, and the process of obtaining city and state permits had begun. As proposed, the plant would have the potential to turn 1,100 tons of commercial food waste from the Philadelphia region that otherwise would be burned or sent to landfills and incinerators into 22,000 to 24,000 gallons of renewable natural gas every day, using anaerobic digesters. But PES had argued in bankruptcy court that the Point Breeze Renewable Energy agreement had not formally started by the time the refinery operator filed for Chapter 11 in July, and that therefore the lease was not in effect. Last week, PES, Point Breeze Renewable Energy, and Hilco Redevelopment Partners agreed to terminate all previous contracts and rights held by Point Breeze in relation to the refinery site, clearing the way for Hilco and PES to close on the $240 million sale of the 1,300-acre property. Hilco had said it could not have entered into the purchase agreement or close the deal if Point Breeze had a right to occupancy. James Potter, president of RNG Energy Solutions, said the settlement approved by the bankruptcy court does not kill the biogas project. “Point Breeze Renewable Energy has executed an agreement with Hilco where the parties agreed to negotiate a new lease agreement after Hilco closes the purchase of the refinery,” he said. Hilco has committed to negotiate a contract with his company after it closes on the purchase of the refinery, Potter said. That is set for May 21, he noted. “We’re committed to getting the project done there. Hopefully, we get an agreement quickly,” Potter said.
Daily electricity demand in New York falls about 13% after COVID-19 mitigation efforts - Recent business shutdowns and changes to normal routines related to mitigation efforts for the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have caused daily, weekday electricity demand in New York state to decrease by 11%–14% in March and April compared with expected demand, after accounting for seasonal temperature changes. Electricity demand changes in New York state and in New York City, in particular, have been more pronounced than in other parts of the country, which may partly be caused by regional differences in how much electricity each end-use sector consumes and the varying effects of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on the sectors.The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Hourly Electric Grid Monitor provides hourly electricity demand data from the 64 balancing authorities in the contiguous United States, including the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which operates the electric grid serving New York state. Using these data, EIA compared the daily electricity demand of each weekday in 2020 through May 1 to the average demand of all weekdays with the same daily average temperature from January through June in 2016–2019. Weekends and holidays were excluded.Comparing current electricity demand to historical temperature-comparable days instead of simply to the same calendar day or week of previous years better isolates the effect of unexpected events, such as the mitigation efforts taken in response to COVID-19, because it accounts for any changes in electricity demand caused by normal seasonal temperature fluctuations. Electricity demand during the spring and fall shoulder seasons can be particularly volatile because temperatures often swing significantly from week to week. On the NYISO grid, daily weekday electricity demand in January 2020 and most of February 2020 closely tracked the average temperature-comparable historical demand before beginning to drop slightly at the end of February. This drop became more pronounced in March as the state began taking steps to limit the spread of COVID-19. By late March, weekday NYISO daily electricity demand averaged about 13% lower than temperature-comparable historical demand, where it remained through April. NYISO reports that “the reduction in electric demand from commercial customers is a leading driver of overall reduced electricity consumption.” New York state’s electricity sales to commercial sector end users as a proportion of total electricity sales in the state is the second-largest in the nation (52%) after the District of Columbia (72%), based on preliminary 2019 data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly (EPM).
MISO Power Tracker: Prices dip as pandemic weakens loads, natural gas prices — Light loads, largely driven by pandemic-related stay-home policies, combined with weak natural gas to prices push most Midcontinent Independent System Operator day-ahead on-peak power prices into the low $20s/MWh in April, down from March and April 2019 prices, and summer forwards weakened year on year Among five MISO hubs included in this analysis, the year-on-year decrease ranged from as little as 27.6% at the Indiana Hub to almost 38.5% at the Louisiana and Minnesota hubs. The month-to-month decreases ranged from about 4.1% at the Michigan Hub to as much as 7.2% at the Minnesota Hub. Daily peakloads in April, averaging 66.5 GW, were down 10.2% on the month and 9.3% on the year. But most of these decreases could not be explained by weather conditions, as heating-degree days this April were down about 19.8% from March but up 24.4% from April 2019. In a Vistra Energy earnings conference call Tuesday, company officials said they observed MISO energy use decreases attributable to the novel coronavirus pandemic ranging from 9 to 11%, more than any of the four other power markets where Vistra operates. The oil market crash that resulted from a lack of agreement between OPEC and Russia regarding production cuts to accommodate the pandemic's effect on travel has had an ancillary effect on natural gas in the MISO footprint. At the Henry Hub, spot gas averaged $1.687/MMBtu this April, down from $1.746/MMBtu this March and down from $2.60/MMBtu in April 2019. At the Chicago city-gate, which is important for most of MISO's North and Central regions, spot gas averaged $1.665/MMBtu, which was up from this March's $1.573/MMBtu but down from April 2019's $2.453/MMBtu. GENERATION MIX In consequence, gas-fired generation expanded its lead over second-place coal-fired generation this April, both on the month and year. The gas fleet supplied 38.3% of MISO energy this April, up from 35.4% this March and 32.7% in April 2019.
So far, COVID-19 fallout not altering plans to retire US coal-fired plants - While U.S. power generators continue to assess what the total implications could be of a decline in electricity demand caused by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, those forecasting a shift to less carbon-intensive assets have not yet changed near-term plans to retire coal plants. In 2019, U.S. power generators retired 13,863 MW of coal-fired generation, the highest amount of coal capacity retired since 2015 when new mercury regulations drove the retirement of 15,124 MW of coal-fired capacity, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis shows. As of April 17, generators had 9,038 MW worth of capacity slated for retirement in 2020 and another 23,010 MW of coal capacity set to retire between 2021 and the end of 2025. In April, renewables generated more electricity than coal every day of the month, the first time that has happened in the U.S., an analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis recently pointed out. Lower power demand due to the coronavirus pandemic is one of several reasons the transition away from coal has accelerated in 2020, the group added in a May 4 news release. While companies around the world are reassessing capital spending forecasts and looking to preserve liquidity, most utilities set to retire coal plants said they are not yet seeing a reason to slow those plans. Eleven companies responded to a set of questions from S&P Global Market Intelligence regarding their COVID-related generation demand impacts and whether the pandemic will prompt any reassessment of their coal plant retirement plans.
Coal and COVID-19: Lung Impairment Makes Miners Especially Vulnerable To Coronavirus - Underground coal miners start their shifts getting changed in closely packed changing rooms. They ride rail cars to their worksite, shoulder-to-shoulder, sometimes for more than an hour. And once they’re underground, ventilation designed to tamp down coal dust blows air through the mine. All that makes a coal mine the kind of place where the coronavirus could spread like wildfire. Coal mines have been designated essential businesses in most states in order to keep the nation’s energy supply stable. But state and federal agencies are not tracking coronavirus transmissions or regulating sanitation to keep those essential workers safe. “I think there’s a concern by workers in this country that this is a government that gives workers second seat when it comes to their health and safety,” said Joe Main, former Assistant Secretary for the Mine Safety and Health Administration. Rather than implement rule changes or increase safety inspections, MSHA has reduced some enforcement actions and issued unenforceable recommendations for coal miners and mine operators. The language is similar to that used by MSHA’s sister agency, OSHA, which regulates meat packing plants and other work sites that also present risk of transmission. The difference, though, is that coal miners are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus because of the high percentage of miners with lungs damaged due to exposure to toxic coal and rock dust. MSHA encourages workers to wash hands frequently, disinfect equipment, and maintain six feet of space between workers. Such actions can be difficult or impossible underground. “Guidelines were a good first start, but it’s not enough in this situation,” Main said. “You have people who are totally vulnerable, and you just put out guidelines and let what happens, happen. You have to search in your toolbag and do everything you can to make sure people are protected.” Main, who served as MSHA assistant secretary from 2009 to 2017 said there are plenty of tools at MSHA’s disposal. It could do more inspections, make sure miners know they can report unsafe conditions without fear of retribution, issue emergency standards, and make public information on which mines had had confirmed cases of the virus.
TVA, contractor listed among 'dirty dozen' workplace safety violators -The Tennessee Valley Authority and Jacobs Engineering, one ofthe primary contractors on TVA's historic 2008 coal ash spill, together were ranked in annual report on the nation's "dirty dozen" worst workplace safety scofflaws.The National Council for Occupational Safety and Health's latest annual “Dirty Dozen” report, highlights firms and organizations accused of failing to protect American workers. The organization put TVA and Jacobs 10th on the list over their treatment of laborers who helped clean up the nation’s largest coal ash spill more than a decade ago.“The Dirty Dozen report is released to mark Workers’ Memorial Week, remembering those who have been injured, suffered illnesses or lost their lives at work,” the report’s authors wrote. “The event is observed nationwide — and around the world — by unions, surviving family members, and health and safety activists in workplaces and communities.” The report cites the rising death toll among workers who cleaned up a December 2008 spill of 7.3 million tons of toxic coal ash at TVA’s Kingston coal-fired power plant and allegations by surviving workers of mistreatment by TVA and Jacobs, including the denial of adequate protective gear such as respiratory masks and threats of job loss if the laborers persisted in their complaints.
Coal Companies Snag Paycheck Protection Loans for Small Business - Stimulus loans meant to help small businesses hurt by the coronavirus pandemic are being doled out to coal companies, stoking criticism from environmentalists that the Trump administration is using the aid to help a preferred industry that was already in financial trouble.The U.S. Small Business Administration has given more than $31 million in loans from the Paycheck Protection Program to publicly-traded coal mining companies, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.“The question is, is this a good use of taxpayer dollars when we have other businesses closing their doors? What is the long term viability of this industry?” said Jayson O’Neill, director of the Western Values Project, a Montana-based conservation group. “I would argue we should focus first on the small businesses that are in the most need.” Among the recipients are Ramaco Resources, Rhino Resource Partners LP, Hallador Energy Co. and American Resources Corp. Mining and Extraction Tops List of Industry Funding.The stimulus program has drawn criticism for other awards, including loans to Shake Shack Inc., Potbelly Corp. and the Los Angeles Lakers Inc. while millions of mom-and-pop firms were left stranded when the program ran out of money. All three have since returned the money amid an outcry.
Murray Energy’s Creditors Ask to Sue Founder for Raiding Cash --Creditors of Murray Energy Corp. are seeking permission to sue founder Bob Murray and his family members to recover what they allege was at least $71 million in excessive compensation in the years leading up to the coal giant’s bankruptcy.Murray and nephew Rob Moore received at least $100 million more than senior executives in comparable companies for the years 2016 through 2019, the unsecured creditors committee said in a May 1 filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Ohio. Their total cash compensation during this period was at least $120 million, the committee said
Murray Energy executives saw ailing coal company as own 'piggy bank' – A complaint prepared against two executives of Murray Energy Corp., the nation's largest underground coal mining company, alleged fraudulent transfers and breaches of fiduciary duty before the company filed for bankruptcy. A committee of unsecured creditors asked the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Ohio for the authority to prosecute claims against Murray Energy founder Robert Murray and CEO Robert Moore. The complaint alleges gross overcompensation, the use of corporate assets and funds for personal benefit, and donations to personally connected charities while the company was allegedly insolvent for years. According to the committee's filing, Murray Energy's shareholder equity was negative with liabilities exceeding the book value of its total assets as early as 2014. The company's shareholder equity hit a low point of negative $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2016, according to the filing, and was about negative $1.9 billion just before the company filed for bankruptcy. Since at least 2017, the company's free cash flow has been less than the amount needed to pay its debt. "In sum, under applicable law, the debtors became insolvent, inadequately capitalized, and/or unable to pay their debts as they came due at a point no later than the end of fourth-quarter 2016, and remained so at all times thereafter through the petition date," the creditors alleged. Those findings appear to contradict Robert Murray's public statements about the health of the company. In a 2016 interview, he decried other coal producers for dragging the industry down into the "bankruptcy sewer" and insisted he had a "four-point plan" that would keep the company away from the restructuring process. In 2017, Murray Energy warned that it would follow a customer into bankruptcy if it did not receive federal support, but it did not pursue that option when its client did so the following year. Instead, Murray Energy refinanced through a distressed debt exchange in the summer of 2018 and insisted its creditors were now "well-protected." Analysts warned at the time that Murray Energy's debt exchange could be a financial stretch for the producer. The latest filing includes a proposed adversary complaint against Murray and Moore detailing allegations the unsecured creditors have mentioned in previous filings. Moore is Murray's nephew. The complaint also includes as defendants Robert Murray's wife, Brenda Murray, and his sons Robert E. Murray, Patrick Murray and Jonathan Murray, who are also employed by the company.
Dominion Energy unit reaches deal to settle SEC case over nuclear project – Reuters - Dominion Energy Inc on Tuesday said it had agreed to pay a $25 million penalty to resolve claims by U.S. securities regulators that a South Carolina company it merged with misled investors about a failed $9 billion nuclear power plant project.Dominion in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed that its SCANA Corp unit reached an agreement in principle with the agency to resolve a lawsuit it filed in February.To read the full story on Westlaw Practitioner Insights, click here: bit.ly/2yxBH7Y
Nuclear Is Getting Hammered by Green Power and the Pandemic - Generating power without harmful carbon emissions has never been more urgent, yet one of the biggest sources of clean power is struggling to turn a profit. The nuclear industry has been vying for a role as the perfect partner to the surging, but intermittent, renewables sector for years, citing its role as a stable source of emissions-free power. Nations around the world have set tough targets to reduce greenhouse gases with the help of clean energy to meet commitments set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.Record output from wind and solar is more frequently creating an oversupply that can push prices below where reactors are no longer profitable, or even to rates where utilities have to hand out power for free. The rout has been exacerbated by the global pandemic gutting demand. Generators from France to Sweden, Germany and China have been forced to turn stations off or curb output.“We need to work on being more flexible in nuclear,” Magnus Hall, the chief executive officer of Swedish utility Vattenfall AB said in an interview. “It’s a new way of learning how to run the plants and this is the mode we are in.”Electricite de France SA, the world’s biggest nuclear operator, is feeling the heat more than most. The utility with 57 domestic reactors and new-build projects at home and abroad, expects output from its stations in the country to fall by more than a fifth this year. Its output is near the lowest since at least 2012 after about a dozen plants were taken offline in April. The utility’s shares are trading close to a record low.
After Cutting Workforce, Georgia Power Sticks to Current Vogtle Schedule - Despite shedding roughly 2,000 craft laborers from the Plant Vogtle site in response to the coronavirus pandemic, Georgia Power believes that jobsite productivity will remain high enough for the utility to meet the scheduled in-service dates of November 2021 and November 2022 for the two new nuclear units being built near Waynesboro, Ga. However, “The next few months will be pivotal as we adjust to a smaller, more streamlined workforce and seek to improve productivity,” said Tom Fanning, CEO of Southern Company, Georgia Power’s parent, during a Q1 earnings call held April 30. He added, “The safety of our workforce and the surrounding community remains paramount, and will continue to guide our decision-making at the site.”
Virus puts Fermi 2 refueling outage on hold | Toledo Blade — DTE Energy said it instituted “an extended safety stand down” at its Fermi 2 nuclear plant in northern Monroe County over the weekend because of the coronavirus outbreak there, one which will likely keep the plant idle much longer than expected and add to its operating expenses. The plant was in the midst of its latest refueling and maintenance outage, which began March 21. The industry standard for completing them has been a month in recent years. The safety stand down began Friday. It is unknown how many of the thousand or so DTE workers and specialized contractors are being paid to stay at area homes and motels until the stand down is lifted. The utility was able to resume some work on Monday, according to a statement issued by Stephen Tait, DTE spokesman. Refueling and maintenance outages are among the busiest times at a nuclear plants. They happen on average once every 18 to 24 months, depending on the type of uranium in a nuclear plant’s reactor. Hundreds of tasks that can’t be done while the plants are operating are performing while the facilities are taken offline to be refueled. Each refueling consists of replacing a third of the reactor core with fresh steel-cladded, uranium-filled fuel assembles. DTE confirmed in early April that it had seen an unspecified number of coronavirus cases among workers assigned to perform tasks, but said it was able to continue moving forward by taking extra precautions. Now, much of the work has been suspended until test results are completed on all personnel. Workers have agreed to do antibody testing, which requires a finger-prick blood sample, and viral testing, which requires a nasal swab, according to the company statement. “Crews who maintain the facility in its current idled state remained on the job through the weekend to ensure the safety of the plant,” DTE’s statement reads. “The safety stand down allowed the site to conduct newly available novel coronavirus testing for regular and contractor employees at the facility.” DTE said it provides face masks to all employees and contractors, and requires they wear them when they are on site.
Ukraine Considers Using Nuclear Plants For Cryptocurrency Mining - Ukraine's Ministry of Energy believes that using power plants for crypto mining could be one of the best ways to take advantage of a current energy glut. Cryptocurrency mining is a contemporary and efficient way to use excess energy, Ukraine's Ministry of Energy argued in a May 6 statement published on Facebook. According to the post, local nuclear plants have generated the surplus due to the COVID-19 lockdown. The bureau is now looking to apply progressive solutions to avoid wasting energy as part of the government’s course toward digitalization championed by president Volodymyr Zelensky. Leaving the situation unchanged might create “conditions for corruption offenses, which will ultimately be paid at Ukrainian citizens’ expense”, the ministry warns.Crypto mining, in turn, could prove to be one of the efficient solutions, the post continues: “There is a way to transfer this ‘liability’ into an ‘asset’. One of the modern approaches for using excess electricity is to devote it to cryptocurrency mining. That would not only allow to maintain the guaranteed load on the nuclear power plants, but also ensure that companies can attract extra funds. Therefore, it would open the way to a fundamentally new economy, new approaches, a new market model.” As previously reported by a Russian-language crypto news outlet Forklog on May 5, the acting head of Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy requested the state-owned enterprise Energoatom to study potential ways to implement cryptocurrency mining at the country’s nuclear energy generating facilities by May 8.
Residents concerned about wastewater permit -The public comment period is set to end Wednesday on a permit for a docking facility at Deep Rock Disposal Solutions. The docking facility, which would be located just south of Marietta on Ohio 7, is where local residents are concerned fracking wastewater will be offloaded. “(We) are very concerned about the health hazards of his proposed facility, the lack of attention to this issue publicly, and the timing of the public comment period – to end May 6,” Devola resident George Banziger said. “It seems that the intention is to offer the comment period just when everyone is consumed with news about the coronavirus.” Dawn Hewitt of Marietta said the notice was published on the Huntington District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ website. It requests the authorization to operate a barge offloading facility to transfer traditional well waste to existing upload storage tanks. “Who looks there?” Hewitt said of the website. “If it was announced, it was announced in the Huntington (W.Va.) newspaper. It wasn’t brought to the attention of people here. They were following the letter of the law, not the spirit of the law.” Ohio Revised Code notes that all legal advertisements , notices and proclamations shall be printed in a newspaper of general circulation and shall be posted by the publisher of the newspaper on the newspaper’s internet website, if the newspaper has one. Chuck Minsker, public affairs specialist with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, noted the regulatory office said there are no plans to expand the public comment period. He was unaware if the notices had run in any newspapers. Marietta resident Rebecca Phillips said drilling waste contents could likely include arsenic, benzene, toulene and mercury, as well as radioactive materials. “What we’ve been told by the corps of engineers is that it is for traditional wastewater by oil and gas wells,” she said. “Anything coming out of the ground has danger of pollutants, even if it’s traditional wastewater.” Phillips said she is concerned that southern Ohio is becoming a dumping ground. “We are geologically suited (for wastewater dumping), but the notion of wastewater, we have no rights to know what’s in it,” she explained. “They can take waste water from all over the country and inject it into the ground here.” She said the area is already getting truck loads of waste, but having a docking facility would add to the current problem. Hewitt said there are brine trucks driving through Marietta that are full of “toxic, contaminated water” that’s being pumped into old wells. She said there are only a few disposal sites in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, but Ohio has thousands.
Gulfport trimming natural gas production - Gulfport Energy plans to cut natural gas production, but will keep a drilling rig in the Utica Shale, as it hopes for prices to rise later this year. Executives of the Oklahoma City-based Gulfport discussed the company’s first-quarter financial results Friday morning with investors. Gulfport has drilled more than 400 wells in Ohio’s Utica Shale, the most of any publicly traded company. The company reported a net loss of $517.5 million, or $3.24 per share for the first quarter. President and CEO David M. Wood said he anticipates U.S. natural gas production to drop over the next few months, leading to higher prices, particularly if the economy returns to something closer to normal. “However, we remain cautious, as there are still many unknowns surrounding the short-term and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on domestic demand for gas,” Wood said. The coronavirus pandemic also could delay the drilling and completion of new wells, the company said. Gulfport expects to lose not more than 20 million cubic feet equivalent of production per day. By comparison, Gulfport’s wells produced 1.05 billion cubic feet equivalent per day during the first quarter. In the Utica Shale, Gulfport drilled seven wells and completed 15 wells during the first quarter. It has begun production from three wells since mid-March, and plans to keep a drilling rig in the Utica through October. Utica wells accounted for a little more than three-fourths of Gulfport’s production, which is 90 percent natural gas.
Tales of The Shale Crescent -- Part 1 -- "Shale Crescent" connotes an industrial boom beginning with an already accomplished explosion of natural gas production, soon to be followed by a buildout of petrochemical processing on a scale comparable to that of the Gulf Coast, and concluding with a blossoming of plastics and polymer manufacturing businesses that will provide tens or even hundreds of thousands of new jobs.But, just as many regional policymakers averted their eyes from the devastating effect the fracking boom would have on the coal industry, they now avert their eyes from the cancellation of the proposed ASCENT cracker in Wood County, West Virginia; the now annual delays (most recently two weeks ago) in a final investment decision for the proposed Belmont County, Ohio cracker; and clear economic indicators, which show that their vision of petrochemical prosperity is likely to be a pipe dream. In this series, we'll explore those indicators, which suggest that:
- The much-ballyhooed buildout of four to five ethylene crackers in the Marcellus/Utica region will almost certainly not happen. In fact, it's doubtful that any more Appalachian crackers will be constructed following completion of the Shell facility in Beaver County, Pennsylvania.
- If the crackers are not built, the economic rationale for support facilities like the nearly-as-ballyhooed Appalachian Storage Hub, largely evaporate.
- And, even if the crackers and storage facilities are built, they're very unlikely to give rise to "game-changing" increases in manufacturing and jobs.
For these reasons, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars being spent on efforts to bring about the petrochemical boom are likely being squandered. Meanwhile, more feasible and sustainable economic development strategies are ignored and in some cases actively resisted because they are perceived as threats to the imagined petrochemical nirvana.
So, if concerns about the damage pollution and greenhouse gas emissions would do to people in the region and to the planet are the reasons a petrochemical boom shouldn't happen in the Ohio Valley and Western Pennsylvania, the economic and technological concerns presented here are the reasons it won't happen, or at least it won't happen on a scale that will deliver anything like the promised growth in jobs and prosperity. Under foreseeable economic conditions, additional crackers won't be sufficiently profitable to warrant the multi-billion dollar investments required to build them
Did The Plastics Boom End Before It Even Started? - The Year 2020 was supposed to be a watershed moment for the plastic industry after dozens of state and local policymakers planned to make the ultimate shift away from plastics. They clearly underestimated the sheer tenacity of the plucky industry and a global pandemic. The plastic industry has quickly seized the unexpected opportunity provided by the Covid-19 pandemic and an indulgent government to push back on plastic bans. The plastics and petrochemicals sector received a much-needed shot in the arm after the Trump administration gave it an ‘open license to pollute’ after relaxing tough environmental laws and fines for environmental pollution during the COVID-19 crisis.But maybe they have done the victory lap too soon, and the Trump bonanza will be hardly enough to overcome a much bigger existential crisis. The demise of the shale and fracking boom that has been powering a plastics renaissance is beginning to take a heavy toll on the plastics sector as well. The shale boom led to an overabundance of cheap oil and natural gas, key commodities used in the manufacture of plastics both as feedstocks and as fuel. The fossil fuel industry has been heavily pivoting into the petrochemical sector as a second cash cow even as the world grew increasingly weary of its role in environmental degradation, and investors started giving it a wide berth. Indeed, the plastics industry was poised for an epic explosion--until the coronavirus crisis and subsequent oil price collapse dealt it a potential death blow. Time magazine has reported that South Africa’s integrated energy and chemical giant, Sasol Ltd, opened a new plastic plant in Louisiana last year, one of seven such projects it had in the works while Shell was is in the process of building a huge multi-billion dollar ethane cracker plant in Pittsburgh with the capacity to churn out 1.8 million tons of plastic each year. According to the American Chemistry Council, no less than 343 new plastic production plants and expansions were given the green light in the month of February or planned in the near future. Global plastics production was set to increase by about a third over the next five years and triple over the next three decades.But the ongoing energy and health crisis have put paid to these plans and rosy projections.Thailand-based PTT Global Chemical has announced that it will indefinitely delay its plan to build an ethane cracker plant in Ohio, citing uncertainty amid the health crisis while Shell said in March that it was shelving its Pennsylvania project.Meanwhile, China’s plans to invest $84 billion in plastic and energy investment in West Virginia are yet to materialize three years since the promise was made. The plastic bloodbath could be just beginning.
In Midst Of Natural Gas Glut, Plastic Industry Bent, Not Broken (Yet) - With energy demand dropping like a hot potato on the heels of the COVID-19 crisis, everyone is talking about the oil glut. People are starting to talk about the natural gas glut, too. That’s an interesting twist, considering that gas stakeholders have been expanding their petrochemical operations, anticipating an increase in the demand for plastic. However, it seems that the plastic hedge is also beginning to come apart at the seams — and not just because of the virus. Take a look at the situation in Appalachia, for example. All things being equal, Appalachia is an ideal spot for establishing a string of new petrochemical plants featuring ethane crackers, which produce the building blocks for the plastic industry. As an epicenter of the US fracking boom, the region is awash in gas. The US Department of Energy has been all over the idea. Ironically enough, the new petrochemical hub was to be built partly on the bones of the region’s dying coal industry. Some of the work is already under way, but in recent months the clouds have been rolling in. Last March our friends over at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis took a deep dive into the plans for a petrochemical buildout in the region, and came up with this observation: “The petrochemical buildout in the United States has oversupplied the market. Operating rates of cracker plants and plastics manufacturer margins placed downward pressure on operating rates and expected sales prices and margins. Most are expected to decline in the United States and around the world. The supply/demand imbalances are likely to last through 2026.” The victim could be a massive new $5.7 billion petrochemical facility planned for Belmont County in Ohio, which appears to have hit the rocks after a period of site prep. The plant is a project of PTT Global Chemical of Thailand, in partnership with South Korea’s Daelim Chemical. According to IEEFA, Moody’s has soured on the project. Adding more fuel to thepetrochemical dumpster fire, the firm IHS Markit has also reportedly given it the thumbs down. Interesting! According to IEEFA, the same firm once projected that the new plastic hub could support five new petrochemical facilities. As of this writing, our friends over at Shale Daily are reporting that PTT and Daelim had previously set an end-of-June date for deciding whether or not to move forward. That ball of wax now seems to be up in the air, and the drop-dead date is now indefinite. Shale Daily cites a company spokesperson who stated that “we are unable to promise a firm timeline for a final investment decision.”
Pandemic hurts Marathon Petroleum - A drop in fuel demand and low oil prices have battered Marathon Petroleum Corp. during the coronavirus pandemic. The Findlay-based company announced Tuesday it had cut spending and was borrowing money after losing $9.2 billion during the first quarter. “As everyone is aware, the global pandemic became the focus in the quarter and that continues today with our immediate priority on safely operating our assets to supply product to the market, protecting the health and safety of our employees and customers and supporting the communities in which we operate,” Marathon’s new President and CEO Michael J. Hennigan said during a conference call with investors. Marathon operates 16 refineries across the country, including one in Canton. The company also runs Speedway convenience stores and controls MPLX, a company that gathers, processes and transports oil and natural gas in the Utica Shale and other regions. Stay-at-home orders during the pandemic drastically reduced demand for fuel as schools and business closed and commuters worked from home. States have just started to lift some of those restrictions. Marathon’s loss works out to $14.25 per share, compared to its loss of 1 cent per share during the same quarter last year. Hennigan said Marathon’s midstream and retail operations had strong results, but the refining sector struggled. Most of the $9.2 billion loss involved a write-down in the value of assets. Hennigan said Marathon would cut its capital spending for the year by $1.4 billion and planned to trim operating expenses by $950 million.
Shell to Divest Pennsylvania Assets - Shell reported Monday that it has agreed to sell its Appalachia shale gas position to National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG) for $541 million. “Divesting our Appalachia position is consistent with our desire to focus our Shales portfolio,” Shell Upstream Director Wael Sawan commented in a written statement mailed to Rigzone. “While we maximize cash in the current environment, our drive for a competitive position in Shales continues. It is a core part of our Upstream portfolio along with the Deep Water and Conventional oil and gas businesses.” Under the deal, Shell will transfer to NFG approximately 450,000 net leasehold acres in Pennsylvania with approximately 350 producing Marcellus and Utica wells in Tioga County as well as associated facilities, Shell stated. Moreover, the deal – subject to regulatory approvals and slated to close by the end of July 2020 – represents roughly 250 million standard cubic feet per day of current production and includes Shell owned and operated midstream infrastructure, the company added. NFG stated the approximately 142 miles of gathering pipelines and related compression interconnect with various interstate pipelines, including its Empire pipeline system and a potential link to its Covington gathering system. The firm also noted that more than 200,000 of the net acres it will acquire in Tioga County boast net proved developed natural gas reserves of approximately 710 billion cubic feet. “National Fuel’s acquisition of these high-quality assets in one of the most prolific areas in Appalachia will provide the Company with a unique and highly strategic opportunity to further its integrated development approach in the region,” remarked NFG President and CEO David P. Bauer. “With significant economies of scale provided by Shell’s large Tioga County acreage footprint, which is contiguous to our existing development areas, along with significant, integrated gathering facilities and valuable pipeline capacity, Shell’s assets are a perfect fit for the Company’s diversified business model and provide meaningful synergies with our existing operations.”
Shell is getting out of the Appalachian shale business but not petrochemicals -Swepi LP, the exploration and production arm of Netherlands-based Royal Dutch Shell, announced that it is selling its Pennsylvania oil and gas assets to National Fuel Gas Co. for $541 million.National Fuel, through its subsidiary Seneca Resources, drills for natural gas in the Allegheny National Forest and throughout northcentral Pennsylvania. Shell burst onto the Appalachian scene in 2010 with a blockbuster acquisition of Marshall-based East Resources. The $4.7 billion deal ushered in a wave of megadeals that brought the world’s majors to Pennsylvania. But, one by one, many have left or are trying to.California-based Chevron Corp. made it official in December that it is looking to sell its Appalachian portfolio, which includes 890,000 acres in the Marcellus and Utica shales across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Shell has been tapering its shale activity for years now. In 2014, the company launched a restructuring of its shale assets after several years of underwhelming results. It said it would either “fix or divest” of its holdings, which at that time included 900,000 acres under lease.The sale announced on Monday includes 450,000 acres in northern Pennsylvania and 350 wells, all of them in Tioga County.They are in the dry gas areas of the Marcellus and Utica shales and would not be able to produce the ethane, a natural gas liquid that another Shell subsidiary plans to turn into plastic pellets at the petrochemical plant under construction in Potter, Beaver County.“Shell remains committed to Pennsylvania, for example through our Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex, which brings new growth and jobs to the region, with up to 6,000 construction workers involved in building the new facility and an expected 600 permanent employees when completed,” the company emphasized in its announcement.
National Fuel makes big deal to buy gas drilling sites that Pegulas once owned - National Fuel Gas Co. is doubling down on its natural gas drilling business in Pennsylvania. The Amherst-based energy company has agreed to a $500 million deal to acquire natural gas fields in northwestern Pennsylvania that Royal Dutch Shell purchased a decade ago from East Resources, the natural gas drilling business owned by Buffalo Bills and Sabres owners Kim and Terry Pegula. The deal will increase National Fuel's drillable acreage in northwestern Pennsylvania by about 50% and also add about 142 miles of gathering system pipelines to its natural gas transportation network. The deal, coming at a time when natural gas prices in northwestern Pennsylvania have been depressed by a lack of pipeline capacity linking those gas fields to major U.S. markets, is viewed by National Fuel executives as a way to bolster its natural gas drilling business at a reduced price, while also expanding its drilling opportunities in the coming years, with the expectations that gas prices will rebound. "It's a one-of-a-kind opportunity," said David Bauer, National Fuel's president and CEO, during a conference call Tuesday. "It checks every box on what we're looking for." The Pegulas sold about 650,000 net acres of Royal Dutch Shell in 2010 for $4.7 billion at the peak of the drilling boom in Pennsylvania. The deal with National Fuel includes about two-thirds as much acreage as in the East Resources deal, but at a much lower cost. National Fuel is paying a price that is the equivalent of about $1,250 per net acre. Royal Dutch Shell paid a price that was more than four times higher – $5,380 per net acre.
Oil Majors Are Abandoning This Key Shale Basin - Royal Dutch Shell announced this week that it was selling its Appalachia shale gas assets for $541 million in a transaction that wouldn’t have caught much attention if it weren’t for the fact that the oil and gas supermajor had paid nearly nine times that price when it bought the assets a decade ago. Shell’s decision to divest its Appalachia shale gas assets is a move indicative of two major trends among international majors. One is the focus on core operations and ditching underperforming assets in recent years. The other is a more recent rush of oil majors trying to dump their assets in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays amid persistently low natural gas prices which have forced supermajors—including Shell and U.S. Chevron—to write down billions of US dollars of valuations on their assets in Appalachia. In this week’s announcement, Shell said it was selling its assets in the region to U.S. energy company National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), in a deal expected to close by the end of July 2020. “The transaction is part of divesting non-core assets and in line with Shell’s Shales strategy which focuses on development of higher margin, light tight oil assets,” Shell said, noting that it is bailing only on the upstream assets in the region and remains committed to Pennsylvania with its Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex. With the sale, Shell will be transferring ownership of around 350 producing Marcellus and Utica wells in Tioga County and associated facilities, with current net production at around 250 million standard cubic feet per day. This deal would have been a transaction like many others, were it not for the fact that Shell paid $4.7 billion to enter the Appalachian basin in 2010, at the start of the shale gas boom in the United States. The sale, at a price nearly nine times lower than what Shell forked out a decade ago, shows that the supermajor doesn’t consider its Appalachian assets worth holding onto at times when every project and asset in an oil company’s portfolio is competing for top performance that would not relegate it to the ‘non-core assets’ list earmarked for divestment.
Johnson: Yes, pipeline construction is a virus risk - Residents have documented MVP workers not following the guidelines, this refutes their statements. Also multiple crews of workers have been observed working along the MVP who aren’t erosion and sediment control (E&SC) workers. Therefore, I challenge their assertion that their activities are “limited to the inspection, maintenance, and repair of necessary erosion and sedimentation controls.” I’m not sure what “misrepresentations”, “factual inaccuracies” and “questionable merits” they may be referring to in their commentary. In no way has anyone asked that genuine erosion and soil control measures be halted; rather they ask that outside crews not be brought in to commence construction under the guise of erosion and soil control. Granted, there is opposition to the project, but this is in no way the intent of the letter from Preserve Monroe, myself or anyone else. Their statement that this request is an attempt to halt the use of “natural gas in general” is an absurd over statement. This is not about whether the pipeline should be finished or not. It is about the risks this will bring to our rural communities?” This is a major concern, it is disingenuous of them to imply otherwise. The protection of the at-risk population, elderly, disabled and/or immune compromised people is critical. It is well documented that people living in rural areas are in generally poorer health, have less access to healthcare and will suffer more from this virus. This area has oldest average population in the country. West Virginia is #1 for obesity, heart attacks and respiratory problems, its poverty rate is 20%. This will lead to a higher percentage of citizens needing hospitalization. This could overrun our healthcare system. If they are concerned about the citizens they would cease any further construction during this pandemic. In the commentary, the writer said, “we do not believe using the unfortunate circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic falls within appropriate avenues of protest.” This is about the safety and welfare of the rural residents and pipeline workers. It is unconscionable to continue construction at this time.
Anxiety builds as court mulls pipeline permit for western Maryland and West Virginia eastern panhandle | WDVM 25 — While a permit for the Trans-Canada natural gas pipeline project is pending a decision in federal court, opponents are warning against the environmental dangers from the “fracking” process on the region’s water quality.The project from Bedford County, Pennsylvania would extend into the town of Hancock in Washington County, Maryland and into the West Virginia eastern panhandle posing potentially harmful geological impacts on the region. Not only would the Potomac River basin be affected, opponents say, groundwater could also be contaminated by leaked gas in fracking wells.Kai Hagen, a Frederick County councilman says that “in addition to local and regional water pollution, a dangerous threat to public health and drinking water, we’re dealing with the global climate change issue. In that context we really should not be investing large amounts of money in brand new fossil fuel- based infrastructure.” Hagen warns that farmers and landowners will have to protect their property rights if the federal court gives the pipeline project a green light.
Delaware Riverkeeper Files Suit to Prevent Damages from LNG Terminal(s) -An environmental group has filed a lawsuit in federal court against a proposed pier in the Delaware River in New Jersey for liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. The suit was filed last week in U.S. District Court in New Jersey by the Delaware Riverkeeper Network.The suit charges the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers should not have approved the $96 million project that includes a 1,600-foot pier and a storage facility in New Jersey’s Gloucester County. The permit had been issued last February 28.The project at Gibbstown, New Jersey, is being advanced by Delaware River Partners, a subsidiary of New Fortress Energy LLC. Those tankers would load LNG that had been moved about 200 miles by truck and rail from the Marcellus Shale in northeast Pennsylvania under the plan by New Fortress Energy.The company has gotten a special federal rail permit to be allowed to move LNG by rail in specially designed rail cars.Construction started last fall at a New Fortress liquefaction plant in Wyalusing, Pennsylvania. It is expected to be operational in late 2020 or early 2021.New Fortress has plans for a second facility in Pennsylvania. It would be operational in first quarter 2021. Each plant would produce 3.6 million gallons of LNG per day or 2.15 million tons of LNG per year.In related news, the Delaware River Basin Commission has set a May 11 hearing for an adjudicatory hearing on the project. Hearing officer John Kelly will hear evidence and then decide whether to recommend that the commission uphold or reject its approval of the project last June. The commission, a governmental body, can accept or reject his recommendation. Critics have argued that the commission did not allow enough time for public comment in approving the project that would allow two tankers to dock at Gibbstown on the Delaware River.
About 350 gallons of oil spills into NH river — About 350 gallons of heating oil have leaked into the Connecticut River from a New Hampshire facility, authorities say. The Hanover Fire Department was dispatched to the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory at about 4 p.m. Saturday after a security officer discovered a leak, according to a statement from the fire department. It was determined that the leak was coming from a newly installed boiler in the main lab. The boiler and leak were quickly isolated and shut down. But some oil made its way into a floor drain and into the river. The spill was contained with 550 feet of a rigid boom across the river. The boom will be in place for a couple of days while Clean Harbors cleans up the spill. Boat traffic will be unable to pass until the boom is removed.
Dominion confirms $8 bln Atlantic Coast natgas pipe cost, early 2022 in service - (Reuters) - Dominion Energy Inc confirmed on Tuesday its previous cost and schedule estimates for the roughly $8 billion Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to North Carolina that is expected to enter service in early 2022. That cost and schedule, however, depends on the company being allowed to cut trees along the pipeline’s route during the upcoming November 2020-March 2021 season, Dominion Chief Executive Thomas Farrell told analysts after the company released its first quarter earnings. “We can maintain the existing schedule and cost estimates, so long as we can take advantage of the November 2020 through March 2021 tree filling season,” Farrell said, noting “We remain confident in the successful completion of the project.” Atlantic Coast, the nation’s most expensive gas pipe, is one of several projects to have received federal permits in recent years but which have been delayed by state opposition and local and environmental legal and regulatory battles. Farrell said the company expects to overcome those challenges this year. In the Appalachian Trail case, Dominion said it expects the U.S. Supreme Court to rule in its favor in coming weeks, allowing the pipe to cross the trail along its existing route. In the biological opinion case, Farrell said Dominion is working with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and expects to receive needed authorizations by the end of this quarter. Dominion suspended construction of the 600-mile (966-kilometer) project in December 2018 after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit stayed a FWS biological opinion. On the Nationwide Permit issue, which the Army Corps of Engineers uses to authorize waterbody crossings, Farrell said he expects the U.S. Department of Justice and industry will resolve a legal opinion that questions the legitimacy of the Army Corps’ use of the program “in a timely manner.” In a case involving TC Energy Corp’s Keystone XL oil pipe, a federal judge in Montana said the Army Corps was inappropriately using the permit program.
Dominion's responsibility to shareholders: Abandon the Atlantic Coast Pipeline - Virginia Mercury -- A petition asking shareholders to abandon the Atlantic Coast Pipeline is being circulated. Unfortunately shareholders won’t have the power to do so at this year’s annual meeting today.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has on record two shareholder proposals for the 2020 Dominion annual meeting (Climate Risk and Human Rights and Climate Justice). However Dominion successfully petitioned the SEC to prevent them from being brought before the shareholders for a vote.I was a SCANA shareholder. SCANA merged with Dominion on January 1, 2019. SCANA shareholders almost voted for bankruptcy instead of becoming part of the Dominion empire. We had already been burned by the V.C. Summer nuclear plant boondoggle and Dominion’s ACP venture raised concerns about being burdened with another stranded asset.In a letter to the company’s Board of Directors, I asked Dominion to commission a current analysis to determine if there is an economic necessity for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. A current economic analysis would reveal how the impact of the rapid drop in cost of renewable energy would affect the demand for natural gas and if the ACP is needed as an additional transmission line.The plans to build the ACP were made four years ago and the energy industry has changed significantly in recent years. SCANA shareholders and customers are still reeling over the abandoned V.C. Summer plant that left SCANA with $9 billion of stranded assets. Dominion shareholders and customers have valid concerns that the ACP costs ($8 billion and counting) might continue to rise, especially since court challenges haveinvalidated numerous permits.If the pipeline isn’t completed then the shareholders will have the value of their shares decrease due to stranded assets. Another concern for shareholders is last week’s report “Social Cost and Material Loss: The Dakota Access Pipeline,” which concludes the final cost of DAPL was nearly double the initial project cost. “The banks that financed DAPL incurred an additional $4.4 billion in costs in the form of account closures, not including costs related to representational damage.”Dominion Energy Virginia testified in front of the Virginia State Corporation Commission that it has never studied the need for a new pipeline in Virginia. In 2014 when the ACP was proposed DEV had plans to build more large gas powered electric plants. Since then DEV has canceled their plans to build the plants and have announced they have no plans to build them in the future. Dominion Energy has a responsibility to their shareholders to not proceed with incurring more construction costs for the ACP until they can establish an economic need for the project, all the necessary permits are in place and all the legal challenges have been resolved.
Thousands of Virginians, Scores of National Groups Tell Dominion CEO and Shareholders to Abandon Atlantic Coast Pipeline — Today, as Dominion Energy meets virtually for its annual shareholder meeting, an unprecedented coalition of advocacy organizations and Virginia residents have sent a message to shareholders and board members, calling on the utility monopoly to abandon its plans to build the highly controversial Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP). A coalition of 78 prominent advocacy organizations from Virginia and across the country signed onto a letter that will be displayed in a full-page Richmond Times-Dispatch ad and a half-page Washington Post ad on May 6, the day of Dominion Energy’s annual shareholder meeting. The ad, addressed to shareholders, states: “New legislation and legal challenges have rendered the completion of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline unrealistic.” The letter points to the pipeline’s $8 billion price tag, eight missing permits necessary for construction, and the fact that Dominion recently informed state regulators that “significant build-out of natural gas generation facilities is not currently viable” under the state’s new law requiring Dominion to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. A law signed last month by Governor Northam, HB 167, significantly raises the threshold for Dominion to pass any of the cost of the ACP onto ratepayers. In order to recover costs from Virginians as planned, Dominion must now prove a need for the energy the pipeline would supply in Virginia and that the pipeline was the lowest-cost way to produce that energy. Additionally, two petitions garnering nearly 4,000 signatures were delivered to Dominion executives and shareholders today. With one petition, over 2200 Virginia residents called on Dominion CEO Tom Farrell to walk away from the pipeline “for the financial health of the company.” Another petition gathered over 1800 signatures to tell Dominion shareholders that the pipeline “no longer makes economic sense, even based on Dominion Energy’s own logic,” and that “continuing to pursue this project is fiscally irresponsible.” “Dominion Energy’s stubborn push to continue building the Atlantic Coast Pipeline despite ballooning costs, legal and permitting challenges, and a seismic shift in Virginia’s energy landscape betrays its duty to shareholders,” said Brennan Gilmore, Executive Director of Clean Virginia. “The responsible thing — for Virginians and shareholders alike — is for Dominion to shutter the project before another tree is felled.”
FERC has a big pipeline problem - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has a pipeline problem. A really, really big one. According to publicly available information on FERC’s website, the commission approved no fewer than 46 onshore gas pipeline “mega-projects” from 1997 to 2019. These largest-of-the-large pipeline projects consist of gas pipelines measuring 24 to 42 inches in diameter, with over 100 miles of new pipeline. FERC’s most productive years during this time period were 2007 and 2017, when the commission approved nine and eight pipeline mega-projects, respectively. What immediately stands out is how notorious the class of 2017 is in terms of environmental impacts and operational risks. The roster is a veritable who’s who of fracked gas behemoths, including the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP), and Rover Pipeline, among others. It seriously calls into question FERC’s understanding, and exercise, of its role as a true “regulatory” body. The Rover Pipeline is one of the most environmentally destructive gas pipelines in U.S. history, having incurred several million dollars in fines for environmental violations during construction in Ohio and West Virginia. In spite of that, the Rover Pipeline, unlike the MVP and ACP, was completed and is currently in service. The MVP continues to implode under its second project-wide stop work order – it is $2 billion over budget and two years behind schedule – and is awaiting the outcome of multiple court cases and agency permit review processes. The ACP is in extremis. To resume construction, the ACP first needs a favorable verdict in a case before the U.S. Supreme Court (one which will also impact the MVP). Then it will need a veritable cornucopia of other state and federal permits to be reissued. However, the devil is in the details. The final environmental impact statements for the MVP, ACP, and Rover pipelines are sobering documents. The damages and risks outlined are a strong indictment of the Kafkaesque process FERC employs to approve – indeed, to rubberstamp – interstate gas pipelines in the U.S. They clearly demonstrate FERC is not performing its most basic regulatory duty. While the MVP, ACP, and Rover pipelines account for just 12% of the 12,500-mile total length of the 46 pipeline mega-projects, they have massively outsized impacts. These three pipelines account for 42% – nearly half – of the 1,600+ miles of high landslide risk terrain crossed by all 46 pipeline mega-projects approved by FERC since 1997. Landslides pose grave environmental consequences, and threaten the integrity of pipeline infrastructure. One of the eight mega-projects approved in 2017, the Leach XPress Pipeline, already suffered a rupture and catastrophic explosion due to a landslide-related event. The MVP, ACP, and Rover pipelines also account for 29% – nearly one-third – of the 48,000+ acres of upland forest cleared in order to construct all 46 pipeline mega-projects. In addition to destroying wildlife habitat and facilitating the spread of invasive species and plant disease, clear-cutting large swathes of forest on steep slopes increases the likelihood of landslides.
Gas pipeline explodes in Fleming County - Crews responded to a gas pipeline explosion in Fleming County. It happened shortly after 4:30 p.m. Monday near the Hillsboro community, off Highway 1013. EMA officials say the explosion was in a wooded area and no homes were nearby. No one was hurt. Enbridge identified the explosion at line 10 of their Texas Eastern Natural Gas system. We're told the gas has been shut off to the pipeline while crews monitor hot spots in the burned area. Art Huggins described the sound as fighter jets taking off from his front yard. He says it's a good thing it happened in the wooded area and not any closer. "If it had to happen, it couldn't have happened in a better place," said Huggins. "There is places this line travels where there is occupancy pretty close -- not tremendous amounts. But it runs through areas where there are a lot of people. Right here, that's as good of a spot as it can happen." Gas line professionals arrived on scene Monday evening to begin looking over the explosion site. A cause remains unknown.
Federal agency investigates second Eastern Kentucky pipeline explosion within a year - A natural gas pipeline exploded on a hillside near a highway in Eastern Kentucky Monday afternoon, the second on the same network of pipes in less than a year. No one was injured in the 5 p.m. explosion along Highway 1013 in Fleming County, about 3 miles east of Hillsboro. Another pipe explosion in Lincoln County last August left one woman dead and six hospitalized for burns. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Administration is investigating the blast, the agency said. A spokesman for Enbridge, the Canadian-based energy conglomerate that owns the Texas Eastern Transmission Co. pipeline, said in a statement that company crews are on-site and have "secured the area." The 30-inch pipe that exploded, Line 10, feeds into the Texas Eastern — a network of 9,100 miles of piping that stretches from Texas to New York and moves 20% of America's natural gas. About 690 of those piping miles run through the state of Kentucky, from Lewis County on the Ohio border to Monroe County on the Tennessee border. Enbridge spokesman Michael Barnes said in a statement that the company has notified nearby customers but didn't say whether local gas service was interrupted. The pipe has been shut down and remains isolated. Adjacent Lines 15 and 25, which are also part of the Texas Eastern, have been shut down, according to the pipeline safety administration. WTVQ reported the explosion and ensuing "huge fire" Monday afternoon and included footage from a local pilot who was flying a small plane when he saw the explosion from the air. The nearby Daniel Boone National Forest reportedly was not affected. The 30-foot section of pipe that was ejected from the ground near Danville in Lincoln County on Aug. 1, 2019, set ablaze 30 acres of land and damaged several homes and businesses. About 66 million cubic feet of gas was released — enough to power a typical home for 1,000 years. It was the third failure on Line 15 — the first in 1986 severely injured three people about 10 miles from the site of last year's accident, and a second in 2003 in Morehead, Kentucky, that didn't cause injuries but cost $3.3 million. Nine people have died in explosions on the Texas Eastern since 1985. Six of them were in Kentucky.
Texas Eastern explosion, pipeline outage cuts Appalachian gas production, prices— An explosion and resulting outage on Texas Eastern Transmission began pushing back on Appalachian gas production Tuesday, weakening prices at Dominion South while cutting supply to the US Southeast. In midday trading, cash prices at the Appalachian benchmark supply hub were down about 5 cents to $1.51/MMBtu, preliminary data from S&P Global Platts showed. At nearby Texas Eastern M3, stranded regional supply weighed on an otherwise bullish market, dropping hub prices about a penny to $1.62/MMBtu. At other downstream hubs across the Northeast, prices were sharply higher, up as much as 19 cents Tuesday on an uptick in weather-related demand. On the US Gulf Coast, the precipitous drop in incoming supply Tuesday was likely to blame – at least in part – for higher prices at key regional locations including Henry Hub, up 16 cents to $1.93/MMBtu, and Houston Ship Channel, up 21.5 cents to $1.90/MMBtu. Lower prices at select Northeast locations impacted by the outage on Texas Eastern come after an explosion Monday on the pipeline's 30-inch diameter line near the Owingsville, Kentucky compressor station. The subsequent outage at Owingsville has cut southbound capacity through the compressor to zero, according to a critical notice posted Monday by Texas Eastern. Southbound flows through Owingsville have averaged about 1.3 Bcf/d over the past 30 days, S&P Global Platts Analytics data shows. With limited capacity to reroute gas on other pipelines flowing to the US Gulf Coast or to the Midwest, stranded Appalachian production came under pressure Tuesday as combined output from the Marcellus and Utica shales dropped about 1 Bcf/d from the start of the week to an estimated 30.6 Bcf/d. Net gas transmissions from Northeast to the Southeast have also witnessed a steep drop, falling to 3.1 Bcf/d Tuesday, down from an average 4.8 Bcf/d over the 30 days prior.
Three Enbridge Pipelines Shut After Kentucky Natgas Line Fire - (Reuters) - Three of Enbridge's pipelines were shut following a fire on the company's Line 10 segment of its Texas Eastern Natural Gas System, in Fleming County, Kentucky on May 4, the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) said on Friday.The company said on Thursday there was no estimated timeline to return its Line 10 to service.The PHMSA has deployed an investigator to the site of the incident, a PHMSA spokesperson said.No injuries were reported in the fire, which occurred in a wooded area in Fleming County.That shutdown stopped gas from flowing through the damaged section of pipe from the Marcellus/Utica Shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia to the U.S. Gulf Coast.Before the blast about 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas was flowing through that area, according to data from Refinitiv and was now down to around zero on some days, according to data from Refinitv.Texas Eastern has three lines between its Danville and Tompkinsville compressors in Kentucky that make up its 30-inch (76-centimeter) system. They are Lines 10, 15 and 25..
U.S. natgas futures soar to 16-week high on slowing output, pipe blast - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped on Tuesday to a 16-week high after a big pipeline shut, on forecasts for cooler weather next week that will boost heating demand, and on slower output as shale drillers hit by collapsing crude prices shut oil wells that also produce a lot of gas. "This week’s rally continues to be driven by reports of diminished associated gas production (while) near-record cool will support lingering heating demand," Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.1 cents, or 7.1%, to settle at $2.134 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Jan. 14. Canadian energy company Enbridge Inc shut a section of its Texas Eastern pipe in Kentucky following a blast late Monday. That shutdown cut the pipe's gas flows from the Marcellus Shale to the Gulf Coast by over 1 bcfd, according to data from Refinitv. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected gas production will fall to an annual average of 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 87.5 bcfd in 2021 from a record 92.2 bcfd in 2019 as energy firms cut spending on drilling. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has fallen to 89.6 bcfd so far in May, down from an eight-month low of 92.8 bcfd in April and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. The EIA projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas use - not including exports - to an average of 83.8 bcfd in 2020 and 81.2 bcfd in 2021 from a record 85.0 bcfd in 2019. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 82.5 bcfd this week to 86.8 bcfd next week. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 84.2 bcfd this week and 88.5 bcfd next week. Even though the coronavirus pandemic is reducing gas use, EIA still expects U.S. exports to hit record highs in the coming years as more liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines enter service. Still, the agency has reduced its projections on the pace of that growth due to the pandemic.
U.S. natgas falls near 9% on forecasts for lower demand and exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 9% on Wednesday on forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected and longer-term projections that businesses will use less of the fuel and exports will drop in coming months due to government lockdowns to stop the coronavirus spread. That price decline comes after gas prices jumped 13% to a 16-week high earlier this week on a sharp decline in output as shale drillers shut oil wells due to the 60% collapse in crude prices so far this year. Those oil wells also produce a lot of gas. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 19.0 cents, or 8.9%, to settle at $1.944 per million British thermal units. That is the biggest daily percentage drop since January 2019. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since Jan. 14. Those price increases earlier this week boosted the U.S. front-month over the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands and the Japan/Korea Marker (JKM), making U.S. gas the most expensive of the world's major benchmarks. That is why some liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers have canceled U.S. cargoes - because it would cost more to buy gas in the United States than it could be sold for in parts of Europe and Asia - and that does not include fees for shipping or liquefaction. Most U.S. LNG, however, has already been sold forward years in advance to utilities consuming the fuel, so some U.S. cargoes will likely continue to go to Europe and Asia. Traders noted the latest price moves marked the point at which the spot market has finally caught up to the forwards market since U.S. gas prices for the summer have been trading over some European and Asian hubs for weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. LNG exports averaged 7.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from a four-month low of 8.1 bcfd in April and an all-time high of 8.7 bcfd in February. Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 89.8 bcfd so far in May, according to Refinitiv, down from an eight-month low of 92.8 bcfd in April and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November. With slightly cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 82.9 bcfd this week to 85.4 bcfd next week. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Tuesday of 82.5 bcfd this week and 86.8 bcfd next week.
Weekly US gas build exceeds analyst expectations at 109 Bcf | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Storage operators deposited a net 109 Bcf into natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 in the week ended May 1, above the five-year average build of 74 Bcf, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The build, above the 105 Bcf injection forecast by an S&P Global Platts analyst survey, brought total working gas supply in the Lower 48 to 2,319 Bcf, or 796 Bcf above the year-ago level and 395 Bcf above the five-year average. By region::
- * In the East, stockpiles were up 19 Bcf on the week at 424 Bcf, 45% above the year before.
- * In the Midwest, inventories grew 24 Bcf at 530 Bcf, 74% more than a year ago.
- * In the Mountain region, stockpiles were up 8 Bcf at 111 Bcf, 44% higher than the year before.
- * In the Pacific region, storage levels rose 10 Bcf at 228 Bcf, 43% above the year-ago level.
- * In the South Central region, stockpiles rose 48 Bcf at 1,027 Bcf, 49% more than the year-ago level. Of that total, 331 Bcf of gas was in salt cavern facilities and 695 Bcf was non-salt-cavern. Working gas stocks rose 5% in salt cavern facilities from the previous week and were up 4.7% in non-salt-cavern facilities.
U.S. natgas falls on big storage build, coronavirus demand destruction – (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 3% on Thursday on a much bigger-than-usual weekly storage build that analysts said was caused by coronavirus-related demand destruction. "The larger than expected build suggests ... lost demand is still overwhelming the market," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, noting gas use will remain low so long as the economy remains shuttered by government lockdowns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 109 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 1. That was slightly bigger than the 106-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 96 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 74 bcf for the period. The increase last week boosted stockpiles to 2.319 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 20.5% above the five-year average of 1.924 tcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.0 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $1.894 per million British thermal units. This has been a volatile week for U.S. gas. Prices jumped to a 16-week high on Tuesday after a big pipe shut and on slowing output, but fell almost 9% on Wednesday, the biggest percentage decline in over a year, after the market failed to break above the 200-day moving average and on more signs government lockdowns have cut demand and exports. That price increase on Tuesday briefly made the U.S. front-month the most expensive of the world's major gas benchmarks for the first time ever, ahead of the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands and the Japan/Korea Marker (JKM), both of which are trading near record lows. Analysts said high U.S. gas prices and low prices elsewhere in the world could prompt buyers of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to cancel more cargoes in coming months.
U.S. natgas futures fall on forecasts for lower demand in mid-May - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell 4% on Friday on forecasts for lower demand in mid-May due to milder weather and as businesses remain shut due to government lockdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.1 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $1.823 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since April 28. That kept front-month at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana higher than the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands. Earlier this week, Henry Hub traded higher than both the TTF and the Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) for the first time ever. TTF and JKM both fell to record lows over the past couple of weeks. In addition, to the front-month, Henry Hub was trading higher than TTF in July and August. Analysts said those high U.S. prices and low prices elsewhere would likely prompt buyers of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to cancel more cargoes in coming months. In April, buyers canceled about 20 U.S. cargoes that were due to be shipped in June. For the week, the U.S. front-month was down about 4% after rising about 8% last week. Looking ahead, U.S. gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump once governments loosen coronavirus travel and work restrictions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected gas production will fall to an annual average of 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 87.5 bcfd in 2021 from a record 92.2 bcfd in 2019 as low oil prices prompt energy firms cut spending on drilling. Those oil wells also produce a lot of gas. The EIA projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas use - not including exports - to an average of 83.8 bcfd in 2020 and 81.2 bcfd in 2021 from a record 85.0 bcfd in 2019. This is normally the mildest time of year when heating and cooling demand are lowest. But with the weather still cooler than normal, Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 83.5 bcfd this week to 87.4 bcfd next week before falling to 82.7 bcfd when the weather turns milder and demand destruction from the coronavirus starts to show up in the data.
Cruiser USS Philippine Sea spills diesel fuel into York River - Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG-58) spilled close to 4,000 gallons of diesel fuel into the York River on Thursday morning, the Navy confirmed to USNI News. The spill occurred at 7 a.m. while Philippine Sea was pier side at Naval Weapons Station Yorktown. The cruiser was in Yorktown to load ammunition aboard. The Navy is now investigating the cause of the spill. Absorbent booms were already in place while Philippine Sea was pier side. The diesel fuel spill was mostly contained by the booms or under the pier. The ship’s crew, a Navy oil recovery team from Naval Weapons Station Yorktown and U.S. Coast Guard personnel responded to the incident, Navy officials told USNI News. By Thursday afternoon, 90 percent of the spill was recovered and absorbent materials were left in place to try to capture any remaining fuel. The York County-Poquoson Sheriff’s Office flew an aerial drone over the site to try locating any diesel fuel washing ashore. As of Friday morning, Navy officials said the environmental impact, if any, was minimal. Any remaining diesel sheen on the water is considered unrecoverable and is expected to dissipate.
SUPREME COURT: 4th Circuit to revisit pipeline case after groundwater ruling -- Monday, May 4, 2020 -- A federal appeals court must reconsider a dispute over a South Carolina pipeline leak in light of the Supreme Court's new test for determining the scope of federal water permitting.
Commissioning continues at Elba Island LNG » The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given Kinder Morgan approval to introduce feed gas into Unit No. 8 at Elba Island LNG in Georgia, Kallanish Energy reports. It is one of 10 modular units at the LNG facility outside Savannah, Georgia. Six of the units are in service with two additional units starting commissioning activities. Kinder Morgan has said it intends to begin service on the remaining trains in the first half of 2020. Last December, Kinder Morgan had shipped its first cargo of LNG from plant. Construction on the $2 billion modular project with 10 smaller modular LNG trains or units began in late 2016. When complete, Elba Island will be able to export 2.5 million tons per year of LNG, equal to about 350 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, the company said. It is backed by a 20-year contract with Royal Dutch Shell. Initially, the Elba Island plant was to begin service in second quarter 2018, but it has been repeatedly delayed. It is processing natural gas from the Appalachian Basin, as well as from the Gulf Coast.
About half of Louisiana oil businesses expect bankruptcy amid coronavirus -- About half the members of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association expect to file for bankruptcy as the energy industry's struggles accelerate faster than anticipated since the price of oil has plummeted and storage tanks are increasingly full. Nearly a quarter of oil and gas employees have already been laid off, members said in a recent survey. There are about 33,900 oil and gas industry workers across the state, where more than 33,600 wells operate. About four in five exploration and production businesses have already started shutting in oil wells, the association said. A significant drop in demand for oil spurred by stay-at-home orders due to the coronavirus pandemic, coupled with increased oil production in Saudi Arabia and Russia, crippled U.S. oil and gas extraction businesses when prices collapsed. The trade organization has about 460 exploration and production members, but also oilfield services businesses across the state. "We feared these outcomes would take place by mid- to late-May, but the crushing weight of the crisis is taking hold much quicker than expected," said Gifford Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association. About 77% of operators have begun to shut in wells, despite some being approved for federal help, such as through the Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan program, both administered by the U.S. Small Business Administration through lenders. Only about 25% of members received economic injury disaster loan amounts they expected. Of those who received funds, about 72% said it was not enough money to avoid layoffs and about 46% said it wasn't enough to keep the business alive either.
Bill sought by oil and gas companies would deep-six coastal lawsuits filed by Louisiana parishes - The companies are pushing a state Senate bill that would kill lawsuits filed by parish governments that, if successful, could produce big dollars to restore Louisiana’s disappearing coast. The politically active Carmouche law firm in Baton Rouge is behind the lawsuits and already has secured a tentative $100 million settlement with Freeport-McMoRan, which drilled 4% of the wells in Louisiana. By stopping the parish lawsuits, Senate Bill 359, will be heard late Thursday afternoon by the Natural Resources Committee, would leave it up to Gov. John Bel Edwards or to Attorney General Jeff Landry to pursue the cases. Neither office has the resources to do so. Oil and gas companies – backed by business interests and some coastal chambers of commerce – say SB359 will promote jobs and investment by taking away the threat of the parish lawsuits. The Talbot Carmouche Marcello law firm in Baton Rouge is trying to derail the bill. It has the support of other trial attorneys, local government interest groups and environmentalists against the oil and gas companies. “What they’re trying to avoid is accountability,” said Russel Honore, the retired general who heads the Green Army, an environmental advocacy group. “They don’t want to clean up their mess.” The Legislature isn’t the only front in the war; the oil companies are also trying to stop the parish lawsuits in federal court. The two sides recently submitted written arguments to the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on whether the cases should be heard in federal or state court. The oil companies prefer federal court. At issue in the bill to be heard Thursday is Louisiana’s Coastal Zone Management Act, which was created in 1978 and has opened the door for six parishes to sue nearly 100 oil and gas companies. The parishes are Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. John, Cameron, Jefferson and Vermilion.
Is it a good idea to lower taxes on oil production in Louisiana? Legislature starts fast on bill - Though state government is facing a huge drop in revenues because of the coronavirus pandemic, almost the first legislation that moved out Monday from the Louisiana House tax committee was a bill to reduce the severance tax charge on the production of oil.House Bill 506 would reduce the severance tax rate by a half percent each year for the next eight, taking an estimated $151.4 million out of state collections over the next five years.That is money that local government, in particular, cannot afford to lose, said Guy Cormier, the executive director of the Louisiana Police Jury Association who previously had been president of St. Martin Parish for 14 years. Parishes receive about 20% of the severance income and use that money to help fund law enforcement and other local services.But lowering the severance tax would entice the oil industry to drill more in Louisiana thereby creating more jobs, which would translate into more sales and income taxes, said state Rep. Phillip DeVillier, R-Eunice, and chief sponsor of the legislation.“I would feel local governments want more oil and gas production to create more jobs,” he told the House Ways & Means committee.“Is it wise right now to move forward with a bill that will remove tens of millions of dollars from the state of Louisiana?” said Rep. Matthew Willard, D-New Orleans. “It is dangerous to take that risk.”The Legislative Fiscal Office noted, “The bill can only result in a significant loss of state severance tax receipts and parish allocation amounts from what would otherwise be the case.”DeVillier and supporters of the measure said the $151.4 million in losses estimated uses a price per barrel that was conservative at the time the fiscal note was calculated but is now about $30 more than the current price.Present law imposes a severance tax rate on most oil produced in the state was set in 1974 at 12.5% of value. Wells producing less than 25 barrels per day or meeting different criteria pay less.The proposed law reduces the full rate from 12.5% to 8.5% in half percent increments over the next eight years. Gifford Briggs, head of Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, testified that at 12.5% Louisiana has the highest severance tax rate in the nation. Oklahoma charges 7% of the gross value and Texas is 4.6%.But the National Conference of State Legislatures notes that c omparing severance taxes from state to state has proven difficult because the tax structures differ so widely.
TCEQ issues state permit to Texas LNG with stricter standards - Houston liquefied natural gas company Texas LNG on Wednesday received a state permit for a proposed export terminal at the Port of Brownsville with stricter air pollution standards than normal for the region.The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality air pollution permit authorizes the proposed plant to make up to 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas per year, but with tougher rules for the project's hot oil heater and oxidizers.Texas LNG has agreed to the tougher standards, which are the same as those applied to the Freeport LNG export terminal, which began operations south of Houston last year, and the proposed Rio Grande LNG along the Brownsville Ship Channel. Texas LNG launched the effort for a permit more than five years ago. The project has been opposed by some residents and others concerned about safety and its effects on the environment. Opponents have sued in an attempt to overturn federal approval of the project.Texas LNG is the smallest of three liquefied natural gas export terminals proposed for the Port of Brownsville. The projects represent nearly $40 billion of investment, thousands of construction jobs, hundreds of permanent jobs and an opportunity to boost U.S. exports."State and federal regulators have consistently refused to listen to concerns from our communities about the threat that these dirty, dangerous fracked gas facilities would pose to already vulnerable populations by pumping even more pollution into the air we breathe," Sierra Club campaign organizer Rebekah Hinojosa said in a statement. "Texas LNG still faces legal challenges at the federal level, and we are determined to ensure that it is never built."
Oil and gas industry affected by coronavirus — Oil and gas prices have hit historic lows but many are hoping for a rebound now that businesses are reopening around the world. In Houston, Ed Hirs, energy fellow at the University of Houston, is more cautious of the oil market’s future. For example, COVID-19 brought the oil and gas industry to a halt. “We’re consuming 20-30 million barrels a day less of oil,” Hirs said. As the economy begins a new chapter, Hirs said it provides some stability for oil prices moving forward. He believes the price at the pump will stay low through the summer. “Not just because the economy is down but because there’s still a huge overhang of supply and not everybody is going back,” Hirs said. Also, he said operating in a limited capacity is not the same as working at 100%. An ongoing price war in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to affect the market. “We have two big factors that have driven the number of layoffs, thousands have been laid off because capital spending related to the drilling of new wells has just gone to zero,” Hirs said. He doesn’t think the oil market can bounce back as fast as the rest of the economy, but he said slowly reopening businesses is better than doing nothing. “The benefit, of course, is for consumers getting back to work will be a little less expensive, beginning to travel will be a little less expensive,” Hirs said.
Halliburton lays off 1,000 at Houston headquarters - - Houston oil field services company Halliburton has laid off 1,000 employees at its headquarters as low crude prices take their toll on demand for the products and services the company sells to energy producers.Company officials earlier furloughed 3,500 employees at its Houston headquarters, but attributed this week’s layoffs to an “unforeseeable, dramatic business downturn caused by the coronavirus and unprecedented commodity price decline.”“The reductions are in addition to layoffs across the company’s global operations,” the company said in a statement. “These actions are difficult but necessary as we adjust our business to customers’ decreased activity.” Oil prices have plummeted from more than $60 a barrel at the beginning of the year to less than $25 as the coronavirus pandemic shuts down swaths of the global economy and undermines demand. Last month, U.S. crude prices plunged into negative territory for the first time in history, meaning producers had to pay customers to take their oil.Producers have shut down wells and stopped completing ones that they have been drilling. A large part of Halliburton’s business in North America entails completion services, which include hydraulic fracturing.Halliburton started the year with 55,000 employees across the world, but the workforce has shrunk to about 50,000 people, an April 24 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission shows.More than 2,700 of those job cuts happened over the last month at 12 locations in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Colorado, filings with state workforce officials show.A large number of those layoffs are the result of the company closing locations and moving remaining operations to other locations. Halliburton laid off 384 people when the company closed its Elmendorf facility off Loop 1604 in San Antonio and moved operations to various field camps throughout the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas.The company laid off another 233 people when it closed a service center in the East Texas town of Kilgore and moved those operations to a field office in Bossier City, La., to better serve customers in the Haynesville shale, an oil and gas field that straddles both states.Fuel Fix: Get energy news sent directly to your inboxHalliburton lost $1 billion during the first quarter after pulling multiple hydraulic fracturing crews from service and writing down $1.1 billion worth of assets.Over the last three months, the company has tightened its belt by cutting $800 million from this year’s capital budget, enacting executive pay cuts and reducing employee benefits.
MPLX abandons Permian NGL pipeline plans amid oil price rout - (Reuters) - MPLX LP said on Tuesday it is no longer pursuing a Permian to Gulf Coast natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline, called BANGL, after a collapse in oil prices and said it will focus on expanding capacity on existing pipelines instead. The fractionation capacity and export facility associated with the BANGL project have also been deferred. “We are working with others to optimize existing pipeline capacity ... we are still committed to an NGL solution. It just won’t be the original scope that we had envisioned early on,” Chief Executive Michael Hennigan said. “We wanted to not commit to that full scope until we were really sure that the volume commitments would be there (and) with what’s happening in the market, the volume commitments are slower.” Global oil demand has crashed about 30% as the coronavirus pandemic has restricted travel around the world and a brief price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia flooded the market with excess supplies. U.S. crude prices plunged to trade in negative territory for the first time in history last month as storage filled rapidly. [O/R] Oil producers in the Permian, the largest shale basin in the country, and in the Bakken have already begun to slash output and curtail drilling in response to the price crash. Work on the Wink-to-Webster Permian crude oil project, in which MPLX has a 15% equity ownership, is advancing, the company said during its first-quarter results call. One hundred percent of the contractable capacity on the pipeline system is covered by MVCs (minimum volume commitments) or long-term contracts, a company executive said during the call. The line is expected to be placed in service in the first half of 2021. The Whistler natural gas pipeline project, which is expected to transport about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from Waha, Texas, to the Agua Dulce market in south Texas, also continued to progress, the company said.
Chevron Down to 5 Permian Rigs - Chevron is currently running five rigs in the Permian basin, the company’s chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth, revealed in a recent Bloomberg television interview. “We began the year with 17 rigs running in the Permian. We’re down to five right now,” Wirth said in the interview, which was published on May 1. “Production tends to lag rig activity and so what we’re seeing is production actually reflects wells that came on in the last half of 2019 the first quarter of this year…so our production actually is a little disconnected from the rig decline,” Wirth added. In its latest results statement, which was released on May 1, Chevron reported unconventional net oil-equivalent production of 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the Permian basin in the first quarter (1Q) of this year. This marked an increase of 48 percent compared to the same period last year, Chevron outlined in its 1Q statement. In 2019, Chevron’s production in the Permian increased 44 percent over 2018, according to its website. Chevron reported earnings of $3.6 billion in 1Q, compared with earnings of $2.6 billion during the same period in the year prior. The increase was driven by downstream margins and increased Permian production, Wirth revealed in Chevron’s 1Q statement. The company warned in its latest results statement, however, that financial results in future periods are expected to be “depressed as long as current market conditions persist”. “Chevron is responding to these unprecedented challenges by making changes to what we control, and with a commitment to protect the long-term health and value of the company,”
Refinery cuts, emerging crude production losses drive Permian volatility.-- Well, it’s happened. The first signs of crude oil and gas production curtailments in the Permian Basin materialized over the weekend. That has followed weeks of extreme oversupply conditions, growing storage constraints and distressed pricing, all to deal with the abrupt and unprecedented loss of refinery demand for crude oil due to COVID, not just along the Gulf Coast, where the lion’s share of the U.S. refineries sit, but also more locally in West Texas. The rapidly shifting supply-demand balance, first from reduced local refining demand and now also the emerging production cuts, is adding volatility to the spreads and flows between the West Texas basin’s regional hub at Midland, and downstream hubs at Cushing and Houston. Today, we look at how the Midland market has responded to the downturn in local refining demand, and how production losses will factor into the balancing act. We’ve done our best to keep on top of a quickly moving crude market, detailing the recent emergence of negative crude oil prices in One Way Out. We followed that with Future(s) Games, where we focused on crude oil pricing mechanisms, and last week in How Much More Can I Take, we considered the prospects and timing of crude oil and refined products storage constraints. We’ve also zeroed in on regional dynamics in the Permian, including the recent trend in spot prices for both crude oil and natural gas (see It’s Always Somethin’). Now, we dig into the details of how the recent flux in global markets has impacted the Permian oil supply and demand balance, as well as price spreads between the Permian and neighboring markets. We then evaluate what those price spread movements mean for crude oil flows on the pipelines leaving the basin.
Permian Basin natural gas pipeline could be blocked by lawsuit filed by Sierra Club - A natural gas pipeline under construction in the Permian Basin could be blocked in court by environmentalists alleging a federal agency ignored a court order that could have vacated permitting allowing the line to be built over bodies of water as it stretches from West Texas to the Gulf Coast. The Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) owned by Kinder Morgan was planned to transport natural gas 428 miles from the Waha Hub near Pecos County, Texas to Katy, Texas about 30 miles west of Houston. The line would also be able to access connections to export and refinery markets on the coast. . Construction of the $2 billion project began in the fall of 2019, and it was expected to go into service by the end of 2020 with a capacity of 2.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day through 41-inch pipeline. The project met backlash from numerous environmental groups and local communities along the route, with Kinder Morgan settling with the City of Kyle in October 2019 for $2.7 million to protect the small town near Austin from “undue” harm associated with the pipeline. And on April 21, the Hays County Commission voted to rescind construction permits it had recently issued to Kinder Morgan for construction under county roadways, in response to a recent spill caused by the pipeline in neighboring Blanco County. The Commission instructed the County’s Transportation Department to send notice to Kinder Morgan to pause the work until a new policy was approved, per minutes from the Hays County Commission Court. The decision would stand, read the minutes, until Kinder Morgan complied with a notice of violation issued by the Texas Railroad Commission and provided a plan to avoid future groundwater contamination, while also providing Hays County with a geology report for each county road crossing.In its lawsuit filed on April 30, the Sierra Club also pointed to a decision issued by Chief District Judge Brian Morris of the District Court of Montana which on April 15 struck down the Army Corps of Engineers’ issuance of Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP12), which “authorized discharges of dredged or fill material” into certain waters as needed by pipeline projects. In his decision, Morris wrote that the permit violated the endangered species act as the Corps allegedly failed to consult with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service when it reissued the permit in 2017 for its five-year renewal.
Oil flows spell deep depression - Without energy, nothing gets done. And oil is not just one form of energy in the energy commodity complex; it is the energy source upon which our modern way of life depends. In fact, it is the main energy source running through the arteries of the global economy. Far from being a boon to the world, ultra-low oil prices signal that the global economy is flat on its back—even worse, flat on its back with two broken legs. Petroleum geologist and consultant Art Berman recently detailed the problem in this piece. Berman is the man who accurately predicted—starting way back in 2008—the persistent losses that shale oil and gas would produce for the companies that extracted them. The shale industry continuously vilified Berman for his analysis over the next decade, even as the industry was in the process of blowing 80 percent of investors' capital as of last year. With the arrival of the coronavirus, the coup de grâs has just been delivered to a shale oil and gas industry that was already on its knees. Perhaps the most important thing to understand about the current oil "glut" is that it is not merely the result of producing too much oil for an economy humming on all cylinders. It is primarily the product of a coronavirus-infested economy in which demand has dropped 20 percent in just a few weeks. As Berman points out, estimated U.S. oil consumption has returned to a level not seen since 1971. Energy is the very basis for economic activity. There is now 20 percent less oil flowing through the veins of the global economy, and economic activity is tightly correlated with oil consumption. Ergo, economic activity must be down significantly around the planet. Coal consumption is declining as well, but it is harder to measure in real-time. This piece suggests significant declines in Chinese coal consumption. And the clearing air in China and in practically every city around the globe suggests a lot less burning of everything that we call fuel. For comparison the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that the decline in worldwide consumption of refined petroleum products between 2007 and the end of 2009 was 1.5 percent, the period now called the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Total world energy consumption during the same period actually increased by 0.2 percent (though it declined by 1 percent between 2009 and 2010). We are currently looking at energy consumption declines of 20 times that for oil and probably many times that for total energy consumption. The latest consumption numbers for U.S. refined petroleum products do not provide any reason for optimism. It is not at all clear how under these circumstances we could now recover to our previous level of economic activity more quickly than we did after the GFC as some people are predicting. Our energy picture suggests that the world economy has further contraction ahead before even a slow recovery can begin.
TEXAS: State eases underground oil storage rules -- Thursday, May 7, 2020 -- Texas regulators are relaxing rules about where companies can store oil underground, raising concern among environmentalists about potential groundwater contamination and other dangers.
Texas Was The Model For OPEC, But It's 'Not Likely' To Limit Oil Production Now : NPR - In Texas, a proposal to cut the amount of crude that oil companies are allowed to pump from the ground appears dead. The regulator who proposed it — Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton — says commissioners "still are not ready to act" on the plan, which would have cut production 20% to try and stabilize prices amid a historic oil glut. Regulators had been expected to vote on the plan Tuesday. Oklahoma and North Dakota have also been debating production limits. In Alaska, the private company that runs the Trans-Alaska pipeline has already imposed a ten percent cut in oil production from the state's North Slope. In Texas, the idea of a state intervention would have been unimaginable to most people just a few months ago, even though it's not without precedent. Somewhat confusingly, the Texas Railroad Commission oversees fossil fuel extraction, and has the power to limit crude production under a law dating back to the 1930's. It hasn't done so since 1972. But even if such a vote does not happen, the fact that the three member commission considered the proposal reveals just how serious the challenges facing the U.S. oil and gas industry are. At a hearing last month, Scott Scheffield, head of Pioneer Natural Resources, said it was time for the commission to mandate cuts again. He argued that his industry — which has enjoyed unprecedented expansion in recent years — couldn't be trusted to cut enough on its own. "Our industry has created so much economic waste that nobody will buy our stocks or own ours stocks," Scheffield said in a live-streamed meeting. "If the Texas Railroad Commission doesn't regulate long-term, we will disappear like the coal industry." But companies and regulators are divided over imposing production limits. Opponents say companies are making needed cuts on their own. They don't want to open the door for government control of industry.
Texas oil and gas regulators reject production cuts - Even as oil prices remain low, state regulators Tuesday dismissed a proposal to limit oil production as a way to prop up struggling producers. In a 2-1 vote, the Texas Railroad Commission rejected production cuts, which had been requested by some independent oil producers. “By allowing the free market to work, producers can determine for themselves what level of production is economical,” said Wayne Christian, chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, the agency that regulates the oil and gas industry. Amid a global glut of oil, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic causing a severe drop in demand, crude prices have nosedived to record lows. Tens of thousands of Texas oil workers have lost their jobs. “The cold, hard truth of this situation is the price of oil is not going to stabilize until the pandemic is behind us and world is once again open for business,” Christian said Tuesday. “This problem is 90% demand.” While oil-producing nations globally have agreed to orchestrate production cuts, some companies — including Austin-based Parsley Energy — had pressed the Railroad Commission to intervene. But the proposal went against free-market instincts of the agency’s three elected commissioners — all Republicans — as well as the wishes of the state’s oil and gas trade associations, who worried that government intervention could lead to further meddling.
Shale Producers Eye Potential Fracking Revival at $30 Oil-- A pair of prominent shale producers said all they need is oil around $30 a barrel to consider bringing back curtailed crude output and fracking new wells. Diamondback Energy Inc. is curbing production this month by 10% to 15% and sending home most of its fracking crews for the whole quarter. The Midland, Texas-based company expects to end this year with more than 150 wells that were drilled but never fracked as U.S. producers avoid pumping oil into a vastly oversupplied market. Parsley Energy Inc., meanwhile, has curtailed a quarter of its output and temporarily abandoned its five-rig, two-frack crew program. The historic rout in crude prices amid the Covid-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented retreat from shale exploration. Producers from Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. to mom-and-pop drillers are curbing output as the world runs out of places to store additional oil supply. Benchmark U.S. crude futures rose 20% to $24.34 a barrel at 1:20 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, little more than two weeks before a precipitous collapse into negative territory. Still, they remain more than 60% below the 2020 peak of $65.65 touched in early January. When asked what oil price Diamondback needs before it turns the spigot back on, Chief Executive Officer Travis Stice said the company’s first priority would be restarting production that was choked back. Then, Diamondback would consider bringing back frack crews to tap supplies from wells that were drilled but never completed. “There’s a lot of factors that weigh into that, but you’ve got to have prices in the high-20s or low-30s before we kind of signal going back to work in an aggressive or even in a non-aggressive way,” Stice said on a call Tuesday. “As we evolve as an industry into this new world order, I think it’s going to look a lot different than what we’ve historically been accustomed to.”
Oil spill cleanup continues at village park lake in Marine - Leaders in the village of Marine believe it will take another two weeks for a crew to finish cleaning the oil spill at the Marine Heritage Park lake. A spill was first detected in an oil field north of Marine on April 19 and the spill was being contained by a series of three dams and vacuum trucks, according to Illinois Environmental Protection Agency spokeswoman Kim Biggs. However, during a “large” rainstorm on April 25, an estimated five barrels, or 210 gallons of crude oil flowed into the park lake, Biggs said in an email to the BND. A combination of salt water and oil leaked from the oil field when a pipeline broke. An estimated 40 barrels, or 1,680 gallons, of crude oil and 350 barrels, or 14,700 gallons, of salt water spilled after the pipe broke. The salt water and the crude oil traveled across a farm field, into a tributary to Marine Creek, and then into Marine Creek, Biggs said. Kimrose Operating Co. is the company that runs the oil field, according to Illinois Emergency Management Agency records. A company representative declined to comment Friday. Investigators do not know why the pipeline broke, according to the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, which is also investigating the spill. Another company has been hired to clean up the spill, village leaders said. Mayor John Molitor said the oil field is less than a half mile from the park lake.
Amid climate change fight, Rev. Jesse Jackson pushes for natural-gas pipeline – Axios - Breaking from other progressives, Rev. Jesse Jackson is calling to build a natural gas pipeline to serve an impoverished community near Chicago.This is one example of the complex tug of war between energy affordability and tackling climate change. The tension is poised to grow as America and much of the world careen into pandemic-fueled recessions.The move puts Jackson at odds with some Democrats and environmentalists who oppose fossil fuels because they drive climate change. The famous civil rights activist says the largely black community is being unfairly cut off from affordable energy. For several months Jackson has been working with local, state and federal officials in Illinois to get an $8.2 million, 30-mile natural gas pipeline built for a community in a rural part of Illinois 65 miles south of Chicago.
- Jackson, who has protested with environmentalists to oppose the Dakota Access oil pipeline, told me in a February interview: “I really do support the environmental movement.”
- However, he said, the people of this community — called Pembroke — have no gas at all and are paying exorbitantly high prices to heat their homes with propane.
- “When we move to another form of energy, that’s fine by me, I support that,” Jackson said. “But in the meantime, you cannot put the black farmers on hold until that day comes.”
- The area has about 400 homes, no manufacturing and only a few commercial establishments, said Mark Hodge, mayor of Hopkins Park, a town in the region.
- The community is 80% black and has an average annual income of less than $15,000, Hodge said. That’s compared to more than $60,000 nationally.
- The region, due at least partly to its rural setting, has never had access to natural gas. The topic is reaching the forefront now because Jackson has been focusing on it since last fall, largely at Hodge's request, the mayor said.
Desperate pipeline companies try to push ahead during pandemic - Winona LaDuke - It’s been looking bleak for Native people: the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency pushed ahead with hearings on the water quality permits for Enbridge’s Line 3, over public concerns. Initially proposed for public meetings in mid March, White Earth Tribal Chairman Mike Fairbanks called on Governor Walz to cancel the public meetings as high risk and postpone the regulatory process. MPCA Commissioner Laura Bishop instead held electronic town hall meetings. The lines clogged at times with Canadian oil workers, pretending they cared about Minnesota water permits. Two days of “meetings”, offering a minute and a half of telephone testimony to the public were taken by the MPCA. The White Earth Tribe was forced to put together comments while most of the tribal employees were off work, to meet the regulatory deadline for comments.Why the rush? Enbridge is desperate, most of the oil industry is desperate. It seems strange that the MPCA would value the feelings of Enbridge over public health. While most of us were sheltered in place, Enbridge has been moving workers into the north country, taking up small motels, into campgrounds with RVs, clearcutting, and moving in equipment and staging for an eminent pipeline move. The problem is that they do not actually have the permits. On February 3, the Minnesota PUC approved in a split decision the certificate of need and the route permits for Line 3. However, those rulings are not formal until issued for the record. Three months later there is no formal record. There are no water permits, and the MPCA process of “electronic town hall meetings” just got challenged by attorneys for Red Lake, White Earth, Honor the Earth, Friends of the Headwaters and other organizations. That’s just the beginning. Enbridge is hoping to put in a pipeline and now there’s no need for oil. That’s why they are hoping to move ahead. On April 20, the price of oil dropped to minus $37 a barrel. No one is buying, and oil producers are basically paying to have the oil purchased. There is no precedent for this in modern capitalism. Storage tanks of oil are full across the planet, and tankers with about 20% of US oil supply are sitting off the coast of California hoping that someone will drive. No one is. Or at least, not like the good old days.
Big Oil posts big losses during coronavirus crisis --The numbers are in: We now know just how badly the country's top oil drillers were hit by the coronavirus-fueled downturn. Three of the four biggest U.S. oil and gas producers posted multimillion to multibillion dollar losses in their latest earnings reports, a sign of just how damaging the drop in energy demand because of the covid-19 pandemic has been to the domestic oil business. ConocoPhillips, the third-biggest U.S. oil driller by market capitalization, announced late last week that it lost $1.7 billion during the first three months of the year. Phillips 66, the fourth-largest, reported a first-quarter loss of $2.5 billion.And ExxonMobil, long the nation's top energy company, bled $610 million during the first three months of 2020, when oil globally lost two-thirds of its value. It is the first time the company has posted a quarterly loss in the past three decades. “We've certainly weathered the ups and downs of many price cycles,” its CEO Darren Woods said during an earnings call Friday. “However, I have to say, we've never seen anything like what the world is experiencing today.”The companies will try to sustain their bottom lines by cutting production in the Permian Basin. The storied oil-rich region stretches through western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and enjoyed a surge in production with the advent of hydraulic fracturing technology. But now with the drop in the price of oil making Permian crude too expensive to get out of the ground, that boom is quickly turning into a bust.Exxon said it expects to ramp down Permian rigs by about 75 percent and end the year with only about 15 rigs. Altogether, the company is slashing its capital spending for 2020 by 30 percent. Chevron, the nation's No. 2 oil company, said it expects to cut 125,000 barrels per day from its original production target for the Permian by the end of the year. It began the year running 17 rigs in the Permian but now is running only five. And ConocoPhillips said it expects to cut production not just in the Permian, but across North America by about 460,000 barrels per day by June. Overall, output from the top American and European oil majors is set to drop by nearly 11 percent next quarter,according to an analysis by Reuters. The European majors BP and Dutch Royal Shell saw declined profits to start 2020 too, with Shell slashing its dividend to shareholders for the first time since World War II.
Oil and gas companies set to lose $1 trillion in revenues this year - Oil and gas exploration and production companies, or E&Ps, are slated to lose a staggering $1 trillion in revenues in 2020, according to analysis by research firm Rystad Energy. The E&P industry, which includes oil majors, made $2.47 trillion in revenues globally last year, the firm says. But this year it's projected to bring in $1.47 trillion, reflecting a 40% decline year-on-year. It comes as the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing lockdowns cripple demand and force companies to slash spending and cancel projects. Before the virus began to hit economies, Rystad projected E&P revenues for 2020 to reach $2.35 trillion. Returns for 2021 are now also projected lower, at $1.79 trillion compared to a forecast of $2.52 trillion before the pandemic. The slashed revenues, a similar story for most industries amid the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, have clearly manifested themselves in the industry's equity market position. The energy sector is shrinking so dramatically that it's become the second-smallest group in the whole S&P index. The industry now represents just 3% of the index, compared to 15% a decade ago and 30% in 1980. The International Energy Agency predicts a record demand loss of 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, as all but essential businesses across many major economies are forced to remain closed and millions of residents shelter in place for an indefinite period of time. Air travel has dropped by 95% in the U.S. year-on-year, a reflection of the global travel industry as a whole. The price of global oil benchmark Brent crude is down more than 60% year-to-date to its lowest in more than 20 years, and this month saw an oil futures contract turn negative for the first time in history as the world runs out of storage space, forcing producers to take rigs offline and shut in production. Exxon is cutting its capital spending globally by 30%. Exxon CEO Darren Woods expects oil demand to fall by between 25% and 30% in the immediate term. Chevron, BP, Shell and Saudi Aramco are among other major producers that have announced spending cuts of between 20% and 25% in their operations globally. As an industry, oil companies have so far slashed $54 billion in planned spending, Reuters reported this month. U.S. shale, with higher production costs than many foreign competitors, is the largest contributor to this so far, with rigs and projects dropping like flies. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. production has now plunged by 1 million bpd, pumping 12.1 million bpd last week compared to a record 13.1 million bpd in mid-March. "This year might be marked by the lowest project sanctioning activity since the 1950s in terms of total sanctioned investments, dropping to $110 billion, or less than one-quarter of the 2019 level, with most of the projects being deferred," Rystad wrote.
Coronavirus Downturn May Nullify 10 Years of Oil Demand Growth - Up until early April the oil market was being clobbered by the double whammy of a supply glut from a Saudi-Russian price war and demand destruction on an unprecedented scale caused by the coronavirus or Covid-19 global pandemic. The short-lived situation was unique in recent history. For instance, the price crash of 2008-09 was down to a demand slump in the wake of the global financial crisis while the 2015-16 downturn was caused by oversupply. But the current crisis brought both negative elements together for nearly a month before market attention turned back to demand after Moscow and Riyadh helped ink a historic 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) cut on April 9 to “balance” the market. Those cuts kicked in on May 1 but market balance would be very hard to find, especially since the forecasting community remains divided over the extent of near-term demand destruction. At the start of the crisis in February, some were still suggesting nominal demand growth might still occur in 2020, even if projects were revised substantially down from pre-crisis growth predictions of 1.2-1.4 million bpd. Those projections would have put total global demand just north of a 99.67 million bpd average seen in 2019. But as the pandemic spread well beyond its point of origin in China to wider Asia, Europe and North America – the reality began to bite. From the outset, demand in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consuming nation which imports on average 14 million bpd was badly hit. Now the biggest crude global consumer – United States – is in the grip of the pandemic, as are India, Japan and South Korea who are the world’s third, fourth and fifth-biggest consumers in that order. Deep into the pandemic airlines are grounded, vehicles are off road, factories are idle, production lines are offline and petrochemical demand is low because we are buying and consuming less, barring essentials wherever we might happen to be. So where does demand go from here? Restrictions and lockdowns may last for most of the second quarter and perhaps even half of third quarter. Furthermore, data suggests 187 countries currently have varying degrees of restrictions. Those will ease at a differing pace implying any demand recovery will not be uniform. Getting a complete handle on things will only occur once a vaccine can be found, which appears to be months or even up to a year away.
Fossil Fuel Companies Try Again to Get Colorado Climate Case Moved to Federal Court - Several Colorado communities squared off against Big Oil on Wednesday, before a three-judge panel in a virtual U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals courtroom, over the perennial issue in climate liability lawsuits: jurisdiction. Richard Herz, an attorney with Earth Rights International, argued on behalf of the City and County of Boulder and San Miguel County that last year’s decision by federal district court Judge William Martínez to keep the case in state court should stand, and that the 10th Circuit’s legal leeway to review the lower court’s decision was limited. Representing ExxonMobil and affiliates of Suncor Energy, attorney Kannon Shanmugam countered that the case belongs in federal court, arguing that under the Clean Air Act, as well as precedents set in some other climate cases, federal law preempts state law when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions. Judge Carolyn McHugh seemed unpersuaded. “I have a hard time accepting a complete preemption argument under the Clean Air Act,” said McHugh, interrupting Shanmugam’s argument,“when the statute specifically indicates that it doesn’t displace state law.” The panel questioned Herz closely as well, with Judge Carlos Lucero asking for an explanation of how the communities have calculated the fossil fuel firms’ monetary liability. Herz compared his case to past litigation by states against tobacco firms, as well as more recent opioid lawsuits. “All these things are about sales and misrepresentations,” he told Judge Lucero, ”and local governments have sued for local injuries in these areas, in state court, under state law.” In late March, the Colorado communities sent a letter to the court arguing that the March 2020 decision by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, in which the court ruled that a similar suit by the city of Baltimore belonged in Maryland state court, has set a precedent that applies in the Colorado case. In the lawsuit, first filed 2018, the Colorado communities are seeking monetary damages from the fossil energy firms to cover the costs of dealing with the intensifying effects of climate change, including more frequent and destructive heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. They argue that the firms are liable for these costs because they knowingly misled the public for decades on the link between burning fossil fuels and rising global temperatures, while continuing to produce and sell “a substantial portion of the fossil fuels that are causing and exacerbating climate change.”
ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Coronavirus could drive 'mass abandonment' of oil wells -- Tuesday, May 5, 2020 -- In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic that's shaken the global oil sector, oil states fighting to restart their economies may face another kind of crisis.
Big Oil Fears Keystone XL Ruling Means End of Easy Pipeline Permits - Steve Horn - On April 15, Judge Brian Morris nullified water-crossing permits in Montana that were granted for the Keystone XL, a major setback for the long-embattled tar sands oil pipeline. The ruling came just days after Keystone XL owner TC Energy, formerly known as TransCanada, obtainedbillions of dollars in subsidies from the Alberta government as global oil prices plummeted.The oil and gas industry has taken notice. Seemingly just a ruling on Keystone XL — the subject of opposition by the climate movement for the past decade — the ruling could have far broader implications for the future of building water-crossing pipelines and utility lines. In his decision, Judge Morris cited a potential violation of the Endangered Species Act when he ordered the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to do a deeper analysis of potential impacts to protected species. Morris required the Corps to demonstrate whether or not it could construct the pipeline without harming endangered species, such as the Pallid Sturgeon or the American burying beetle. Instead, the Army Corps “failed to consider relevant expert analysis and failed to articulate a rational connection between the facts it found and the choice it made,” Morris ruled, when the Corps gave Keystone XL the initial green light. The original July 2019 complaint in that case — filed by Northern Plains Resource Council, Bold Alliance, Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Center for Biological Diversity — also argued that the Army Corps had violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in using an obscure regulatory lever to fast-track the review process. Known as Nationwide Permit 12, the permit only requires a short environmental analysis compared to the more robust environmental impact statement required under NEPA for other major infrastructure projects. But Morris also wrote that the decision applied not just to Keystone XL, but to all major federal projects aiming to utilize Nationwide Permit 12, calling for it to be “vacated pending completion of the consultation process and compliance with all environmental statutes and regulations.” Just two days after this decision, Army Corps regulatory program Chief Jennifer Moyer wrote in an email obtained by the Associated Press that the agency should suspend the program indefinitely “out of an abundance of caution” until the issue is resolved legally. The Trump administration has already requested a procedural halt on implementing Morris’ decision until its potential appeal weaves its way through the legal system. “The Court has eliminated Nationwide Permit 12 for use by any utility line project anywhere in the country, which has extraordinary and immediate implications for numerous projects,” the U.S. Department of Justice attorneys wrote on behalf of the Army Corps.
'Like watching a train wreck': The coronavirus effect on North Dakota shale oilfields – (Reuters) - Oil executive Bill Kent was with fellow managers in the Colorado board room of Resource Energy headquarters on April 20 when benchmark U.S. crude prices collapsed to minus $37 a barrel. “As we were sitting around the board room watching what was happening with prices, it was like watching a train wreck,” said Kent, vice president of engineering and operations at Resource Energy, backed by private equity giant Apollo Global Management. With businesses locked down and billions of people staying at home, demand for oil to fuel cars, planes and industry has dropped around 30% worldwide. The resulting supply glut has pushed U.S. crude prices well below production costs, forcing companies to start winding down operations. Producers are shutting down the higher-cost output first - and those are also the operations likely to stay shut the longest. The Resource Energy team’s discussion turned to the remote Bakken shale region in North Dakota where the company, a relatively small producer, operates. Costs of extracting are some of the highest in the United States. So are the costs of transporting due to limited storage and the distance to refineries and consuming centers. Oil producers in the Bakken, which sprawls across North Dakota and eastern Montana, on average break even at $46.54 a barrel, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank. That is well above the around $40 a barrel in the Permian basin, the largest U.S. shale field. Bakken crude BAK- fetched $3.40 a barrel on April 21. It has since recovered to about $14, still below the cost of producing. The team at Resource Energy realized they would need to consider shutting down the remaining 20 percent of output still operating in the Bakken shale region, Kent said. North Dakota, second only to Texas in oil output among U.S. states, was taking a big hit. In just one day in late April, some 60,000 bpd were shut in the state. Output has dropped by at least 400,000 bpd since March 1, nearly a third of the state’s around 1.4 million bpd output before the crisis. State officials expect the volume shut in to rise further. “This is truly unprecedented,” said Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, the state regulator overseeing oil production. In the days following the price collapse, oil companies sent teams out to shut wells.
Task force aims at incentives for oil drillers amid virus (AP) — Hoping to avoid what North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has called a potential “economic Armageddon,” state and industry officials have formed a group intended to help oil and gas producers recover from falling crude prices due to meager demand amid the coronavirus outbreak. State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms announced the Bakken Restart Task Force on Wednesday as the number of oil wells in the state has decreased by more than 40% in recent weeks and oil production hit its lowest level in five years. Helms said in a statement the group is focused on proposals for regulatory relief, economic stimulus, tax relief and low-cost financing. The group is scheduled to meet weekly. Oil is a key contributor to the wealth of North Dakota, the No. 2 producer in the U.S. behind Texas. North Dakota’s oil production had exploded in the past decade with improved horizontal drilling techniques into the Bakken shale and the Three Forks formation below it. Before the pandemic devastated the U.S. oil industry, daily oil production in North Dakota was at a near-record 1.45 million barrels daily in February, the latest figures available. There were more than 16,100 wells operating at that time. Helms said Wednesday some 6,800 wells have been idled in recent weeks, amounting to about 450,000 barrels of lost oil production daily, a number he called “staggering.” Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, said oil has dipped to about 1 million barrels daily, the lowest production since 2015. The number of wells that have been idled in recent weeks is more than double the number of all wells in the state in 2006, he said.
OIL AND GAS: 14 states to court: Keep pipeline open during NEPA review -- Tuesday, May 5, 2020 -- Fourteen state attorneys general say a shutdown of the Dakota Access pipeline would hurt farmers and increase environmental risks if railways are forced to take on more oil shipments.
Judge Vacates Oil and Gas Leases on 145,000 Acres in Montana – NYTimes — A federal judge on Friday vacated 287 oil and gas leases on almost 150,000 acres of land in Montana, ruling that the Trump administration had improperly issued the leases to energy companies in 2017 and 2018. The judge, Brian Morris of the United States District Court for the District of Montana, said the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management failed to adequately take into account the environmental impacts of the drilling. In particular, Judge Morris found that the officials had not accounted for the drilling’s impact on regional water supplies and the global impact that the increased drilling would have on climate change. The decision is at least the third such legal loss that criticized the Trump administration for failing to consider the cumulative impacts of expanding fossil fuel production on the warming of the planet. It comes as the Trump administration is seeking to eliminate the legal requirements that the government take such impacts into account at all. Judge Morris wrote that in issuing the leases, the Trump administration’s failure to provide the legally required environmental analyses “largely relates to the absence of analysis rather than to a flawed analysis. In other words, the Court does not fault B.L.M. for providing a faulty analysis of cumulative impacts or impacts to groundwater, it largely faults B.L.M. for failing to provide any analysis.” Judge Morris sent the case back to the Bureau of Land Management and ordered the agency to perform the legally required environmental analyses before reissuing the leases. Derrick Henry, a spokesman for the bureau, wrote in an email: “With all due respect, we disagree with the Court’s conclusion, and the B.L.M. stands by its analysis in following the letter of the law to issue oil and gas leases in Montana. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of this dispute and despite the attempts of radical, special interest groups, the Department and the B.L.M. will continue to work toward ensuring America’s energy independence while preserving a healthy environment.” Efforts by President Trump to deliver on his campaign promises to help the oil, gas and coal industries and roll back President Barack Obama’s signature environmental policies have repeatedly been blocked by the courts. Many have been denied for reasons similar to those given by Judge Morris in Friday’s decision: The administration did not follow correct legal protocol in justifying its actions. In particular, Judge Morris followed other federal judges and cited the failure of the Trump administration to follow the provisions of the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act, known as NEPA. It requires the federal government to perform analyses of both the immediate local environmental impact of drilling and infrastructure projects and broader, cumulative effects of increased fossil fuel pollution on the planet. In recent years courts have interpreted that requirement as a mandate to study the effects of allowing more planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In 2018, a federal court in New Mexico also concluded that, under NEPA, the Bureau of Land Management was required to consider the cumulative climate impacts of its oil and gas leasing decisions. In 2019, a federal court in Washington, D.C., reached the same conclusion.
Series of failures contributed to Alaska oily water spill (AP) — A succession of mechanical failures led to a persistent spill of oily water in Port Valdez that lasted nearly two weeks, officials said. By the end of last week, crews had recovered 14 barrels of oil from a contained area near a boat harbor at the Valdez Marine Terminal, The Anchorage Daily News reported. More than 240 people are involved in the response to the spill of North Slope crude oil discovered on April 12. The amount of oil spilled is unknown. “The outflow is currently discharging high volumes of snow melt and rain water with a minor sheen being recovered from the tanks,” according to the spill incident management team. The team consists of terminal operator Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., the state Department of Environmental Conservation and the U.S. Coast Guard. There were three failures that led to the spill, Kate Dugan of Alyeska said. A valve in a pipe near a collection well failed to work. The pipe is part of a pipeline system that carries ballast water and water from the well. Debris in the valve prevented full closure. Finally, a pump should have engaged to deliver the liquid in the collection well into the ballast water system as the level of oily water rose. A water-level indicator failed to activate the pump, Dugan said. A single problem normally causes a spill, said Graham Wood, manager of the prevention, preparedness and response program with the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation. “It’s not common for a series of misfortunes” to be the cause, Wood said. Wood said the response is on track and declined to discuss possible future enforcement actions.
As spill response enters third week, oil continues to make its way into Port Valdez - Entering the third week after an oil spill was identified at the end of the trans-Alaska Pipeline, responders say that some oily water is still making its way into Port Valdez. Kate Dugan, communications officer for the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, which operates the trans-Alaska Pipeline, said that crews made major progress late last week in stemming the flow of oily water when they located a pipe that was discharging into the port. “We couldn’t see the end of the pipe until at some point last week, and it turns out it’s some part of a historical preconstruction era piping system, so it wasn’t on my of the current drawings that we could find,” she said. Crews found the system in historical diagrams of the area, said Dugan. Late last week, crews installed a treatment system, made up of three successive tanks from which the oil sheen at the top was skimmed. But even after treating that oily water, Dugan said there is still a sheen in water being discharged into the port. Though some oil is still getting into the port, Dugan said that responders have been able to reduce the total boomed area by about two thirds and that they are gradually decommissioning some of the response vessels. It is still unclear how the water made its way from the sump, a four-foot-diameter, sixteen-foot deep tank, that overflowed after a pump malfunctioned, into the old underground piping system. Dugan said that crews are still excavating around the area to try to determine the flow path of the oil in the ground. “We have to do it systematically, we have to engineer and survey because there’s so much underground utilities and piping systems around the terminal so it’s challenging work,” she said. Dugan said it might be weeks before Alyeska can complete an investigation to determine exactly what went wrong to cause the check valve in the sump and the pump to malfunction. So far, over fifty thousand gallons of oily water have been recovered from Port Valdez from which 590 gallons of pure oil have been recovered. The final amount won’t be known until off-site metering is completed.
Oil spill in Herschel, Sask., largely contained to Enbridge property, says Canada Energy Regulator - An above-ground oil spill in Herschel, Sask., was largely contained to Enbridge company property, said a release from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). CER said about 150 cubic metres of sweet crude oil spilled at an Enbridge pump station. Enbridge said a limited amount of oil impacted nearby municipal land and no waterways were affected. The company told CER wildlife protection measures are in place and surface clean-up is underway. A CER inspection officer is on site, the release said. Herschel is about 150 kilometres southwest of Saskatoon. Pipelines need more monitoring: FSIN FSIN Chief Bobby Cameron said there needs to be "beefed up" monitoring of pipelines, including having First Nations people helping with the monitoring. "This incident shows that there is always a risk of leaks, even on recently built pipelines," said FSIN Chief Bobby Cameron in a news release. "First Nations have reason to worry about the potential oil leaks from all pipelines that are near their lands." The release notes that the Line 3 pipeline in Canada impacts 154 Indigenous communities. The CER release notes that the Enbridge Line 3 Indigenous Advisory Monitoring Committee was notified of the incident and is being kept up to date.
Cleanup underway at Enbridge pump station following oil spill in Herschel, Saskatchewan - The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) is overseeing an oil spill cleanup in Herschel, Sask., after Enbridge notified the federal agency of an above ground release of sweet crude oil. The incident occurred at the company’s Line 3 pump station and involved approximately 150 cubic metres of oil. The CER says there is no risk to public safety. According to Enbridge, the majority of the spill was contained to the company’s property with limited oil migrating to adjacent municipal land. No watercourses are affected and precautionary wildlife measures are in place, says the CER. Surface cleanup is underway, with the removal of contaminated soil to follow.
Trying to contain oil leakage in East Fjords - By the end of May, the Icelandic Coast Guard plans to make the first step toward preventing further leakage from the wreck of a British oil tanker, lying at the bottom of Seyðisfjörður, the East Fjords. The Icelandic government recently decided to allocate ISK 38 million (USD 258,000; EUR 238,000) toward the project. The tanker, El Grillo, was destroyed in the fjord by German military aircraft on February 10, 1944. There were no casualties in the attack, but the tanker sustained considerable damage and was subsequently sunk. The wreck is 134-m (441-ft) long, weighing 7,264 tons. Not surprisingly, there was an extensive oil spill, since the ship had the capacity to carry 9,000 tons of oil. In 1952, about 4,500 tons of oil were pumped from the ship. In 2001, another 60 tons were pumped out, but an estimated 10-15 tons of oil still remain. The heavy crude oil thickens in cold weather, but seeps faster through holes in warm weather and forms an oil slick on the surface of the ocean, causing the death of large numbers of birds. An inspection of the wreck last fall revealed the source of the leakage to be the corroding cover of a manhole, leading to one of the ship’s 36 tanks. The Coast Guard plans to pour concrete into a cast on top of the manhole, in order to close it. A stainless steel pipe and a valve will be installed, going through the concrete to the manhole, through which it will be possible to drill later on, in order to pump out oil. The Coast Guard ship Þór will sail to the location; at least five to six divers will participate in the operation, and there will be a diving chamber on board the ship. Þór will, in addition, be equipped with pollution prevention and pollution cleaning equipment during the operation. The plan is just to close the manhole with concrete, not to pump oil from the tanker. Due to corrosion of the tanker, however, this may only suffice to stop leakage of oil temporarily. The deck of the tanker is at a depth of 32 m (105 ft), and a special barge will be used for the work. A special type of concrete will be poured with a concrete pump through a hose from the barge into the cast around the manhole. Special attention will have to be given to ammunition and shells on board when diving around the wreck. Three of the divers participating in the project will explosives experts as well. Last fall’s expedition revealed 23 shells on board the ship. In the past, depth charges have been removed from the tanker as well.
Ecuador’s Amazon communities sue over oil spill – Indigenous communities in Ecuador's Amazon region have filed a lawsuit against the government and oil companies after a devastating oil spill polluted rivers and deprived them of drinking water. The pollution in Orellana province near the Peruvian border was the result of an April 7 landslide that ruptured 3 pipelines, spewing 15,000 barrels of oil into nearby rivers including Amazon tributary the Napo, a community leader and an NGO said. (READ: Torment in Ecuador: virus dead piled up in bathrooms) "The families living on the river banks are lacking food and no longer know where to find water to drink, or with which to bathe," Marcia Andi, a Kichwa and leader of the Mushuk Llacta community told AFP by phone. Around 27,000 indigenous people from the Kichwa and Shuar tribes living along the Coca and Napo rivers are affected by the spill, according to Maria Espinosa, a lawyer with the Amazon Frontlines NGO. Tulong Anakpawis and Purple Action for Indigenous Women's Rights (LILAK) help communities by getting a permit from the local government units or directly sending money to community leaders They are seeking "immediate measures to guarantee the supply of water, food, and access to health for the populations that have been affected," Espinosa told AFP, adding that aid provided to date was "insufficient" for the communities' needs. State oil company PetroEcuador, named in the suit, said it had distributed 500,000 liters of water in containers to 59 indigenous communities affected by a spill. It said one of its pipelines had been ruptured and later repaired. The company said it had begun environmental cleanup work that also included the Quijos river. A second company, OCP Ecuador, was also named as it owned one of the ruptured pipelines. Local communities accuse the companies of not alerting them to the spill. Amazon Frontlines, which has been gathering evidence of the impact, said the spill is estimated to be the largest in the region since 2004.
Small amount of oil seeped into river from GPL Kingston complex - An oil spill was discovered yesterday, 2020 May 6 within the compound of the Guyana Power and Light Inc. (GPL Inc.) Kingston Power Complex. A small amount of the spill seeped into the Demerara River. After the discovery, GPL’s personnel expedited industry standard safety, health and environmental procedures to contain the spill. The general public is hereby reassured that GPL’s efforts to contain the spill have thus far proven successful. GPL wishes to advise the general public that our company embraces industry standard fuel management practices and a thorough investigation will be conducted to prevent a recurrence.
Depressed demand and falling prices challenges LNG sector - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector has been hit by supply overhang followed by Covid-19-induced economic slowdown and lower demand worldwide, says data and analytics company GlobalData. “Due to the sharp fall in oil prices, spread between oil-indexed long-term LNG contracts and spot contracts have considerably reduced. This can make it challenging for LNG producers to meet their revenue targets. In addition, a rapid decline in gas demand is affecting financing of capital-intensive new liquefaction projects, leading to inordinate delays and capex reductions,” explained Haseeb Ahmed, Oil and Gas analyst at GlobalData. To keep a check on spends, several operators are delaying their upcoming LNG projects. Operators are reducing their expenditures for 2020 as a measure to counter the impacts of Covid-19. Woodside Energy and Exxon Mobil have resorted to downsizing their capex by 60% and 30%, respectively, for 2020. In the meanwhile, British Petroleum has pushed the timeline for its Tortue FLNG project from 2020 to 2023 in response to the Covid-19 impact. Similarly, Qatar Petroleum has also postponed the project timelines of its Ras Laffan North Field LNG terminal development by a year to 2025. “A silver lining amid all the chaos induced by the pandemic outbreak is increased opportunities for new entrants to the LNG sector. Global LNG oversupply, as well as low LNG prices, might encourage new countries and companies to start importing LNG, contributing to LNG industry growth. Sustained low LNG prices will encourage several gas-importing countries to switch from coal and oil to cleaner natural gas,” Ahmed concluded.
Credit Risk: Identifying Early Warning Signals In The Oil And Gas Industry - This article provides a deep-dive analysis on the credit risk impact of the European Oil and Gas industry which takes into account the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, causing oil prices to plummet on oversupply and weakened demand. The analysis covers European public companies in the Oil and Gas sector between January 2, 2020 and April 16, 2020 and utilises S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Probability of Default Model Market Signals (PDMS) which captures equity market sentiment, providing signs of potential default for 71,000+ public companies[1]. The oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia came to an end on April 13, 2020 and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) amongst other oil producing nations agreed to collectively cut production. The initial fall out and subsequent trigger for a decline in oil prices came in early March when Saudi Arabia and Russia could not agree on production cuts given the reduced demand from China. A series of key events from January 2020 until the middle of April 2020, provided early warning signals of a deterioration in credit risk which can be seen via PDMS. Table 1: Key Oil and Gas Industry Events and Median PDMS Scores for Europe News of weakening oil imports and a subsequent global economic slowdown began to surface which raised concerns in the oil markets towards the end of January 2020 (See Table 1). This event was captured by the PDMS early warning signal on January 24, 2020 and further PDMS early warning signals were observed over the course of March and April. These early warning signals mirror key industry events such as OPEC+ breakdown, Saudi Arabia cutting its crude prices, and the eventual OPEC+ agreement. Figure 1 shows the combined PDMS (%) for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe, PDMS early warning signals. The PDMS early warning signal unit is normalized in respect to the number of rating actions (e.g. if the maximum number of observed rating actions per day is 10 then the PDMS early warning signal value in the same period will have a signal equal to 10 plus one). The early warning signs from PDMS were also observed on February 24 2020 and March 9 2020 ahead of the OPEC+ disagreement on supply cuts on March 6 2020, and Saudi Arabia cutting its crude prices three days later on March 9, 2020. Post the OPEC+ production cuts on April 13, 2020, the PDMS model indicated that the market is not fully satisfied with the outcome, flagging further early warning signals on the April 16, 2020.
Oil spill found in Israeli stream - An oil spill was discovered by the Environmental Protection Ministry in the Gdora stream, which runs from Kiryat Ata to Kiryat Biyalik.Members of the Kishon River Authority are working with municipal staff to clean up the spill. The Green Police has opened an investigation into the issue.
Russian oil output falls near to OPEC+ target - sources - (Reuters) - Russia’s oil output in the first five days of May fell to 8.75 million barrels per day (bpd), close to its production target of 8.5 million bpd for May and June under a global deal to cut crude supplies, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters. Together with gas condensate, or light oil, which is not part of Russia’s target, the country’s output was 9.5 million bpd for May 1-5, the first time it has fallen below 10 million bpd since August 2009. While the latest data, which showed production of 1.296 million tonnes per day including gas condensate, was only for the first few days since the deal kicked in on May 1, it shows Russia is following through on its pledges so far. Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said in an online interview that domestic oil producers are striving to reach the target as soon as possible. He also said that the global oil demand declined by around 30% last month and the fall has eased since then. However recovery to pre-crisis levels would not be achieved quickly. Sorokin added that some countries, where international majors work, may have difficulties with sticking to targets under a global oil output cuts deal. He didn’t named those countries. Traders and industry sources said that Iraq has yet to inform its regular oil buyers of cuts to its exports, suggesting it is struggling to fully implement the cuts deal. Reuters uses a ratio of 7.33 barrels per tonne to calculate the daily output in barrels. Russia’s gas condensate output is typically about 700,000-800,000 barrels a day.
Saudi Arabia gets Moody's downgrade, prepares for 'painful' measures — but can likely weather crisis - Saudi Arabia is preparing to enact "strict, painful measures" in the face of its worst growth contraction in two decades brought on by the twin shock of coronavirus lockdowns and low oil prices, its finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a sobering interview over the weekend. The oil-rich kingdom, in the midst of historic social and economic liberalization, is going to have to slash projects and spending as it sees its foreign currency reserves shrinking at a record pace, its fiscal deficit widening and its risk assets deteriorating. Forecasts for GDP contraction this year are as steep as -3.2%, while ratings agency Moody's downgraded the country's sovereign outlook to negative from stable on Friday. Aside from the risks to the kingdom's fiscal strength from the pandemic and oil price shocks, further risks lie in "the uncertainty regarding the degree to which the government will be able to offset its oil revenue losses and stabilize its debt burden and assets in the medium term," Moody's wrote. "We must reduce budget expenditures sharply," al-Jadaan told Al Arabiya TV on Saturday. "Saudi finances need more discipline and the road ahead is long." The striking change in tone from the minister, which just ten days prior was more vocally optimistic and spoke of the country's resilience to deal with the situation, was not taken well by markets: Saudi Arabia's stock exchange, the Tadawul, dropped more than 7% during trading the following day. While al-Jadaan in April suggested additional borrowing on international markets, this time he said that "all options for dealing with the crisis are open." "The list is extremely long," the minister said of the cost-cutting possibilities. But likely high on that list are some of the multibillion dollar mega-projects in areas from tourism to infrastructure that fell under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious Vision 2030, meant to drive private industry and diversify the kingdom's economy away from oil. Still, despite facing what may be the greatest period of uncertainty in its modern history, Saudi Arabia is in a better position than most to weather this crisis. This is thanks to the sizable wealth buffers it's built up over the previous two decades — including $473 billion in international reserves as of March, according to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority — the highest of any country in the Gulf and broader Middle East. Saudi Arabia's debts are also low by global standards, and it has easy access to capital markets for borrowing, as its bond issuances of the past two years — oversubscribed many times over — demonstrate. Its $7 billion bond issuance in mid-April reportedly saw some $54 billion in orders by investors. "Though the outlook is challenging, Saudi Arabia has significant balance sheet strength on which it can draw to ensure that the fiscal deficit is adequately funded and the investment programme remains on track," Ehsan Khoman, head of MENA research and strategy at Japanese bank MUFG, wrote in a note Monday. "Stability will come at a cost, however, and we see public debt rising to 31.6% of GDP this year – the highest level since 2005," Khoman wrote, adding that MUFG expects foreign currency reserves to drop by $47 billion this year, though they will remain ample, accounting for nearly three years of import cover. Analysts at Moody's agree on the point of Saudi fiscal strength, despite the crisis and ratings downgrade, affirming its issuer rating of A1. "Saudi Arabia's A1 rating is supported by the government's still relatively robust, albeit deteriorating, balance sheet," Moody's wrote, "which is underpinned by a still-moderate debt level and substantial fiscal and external liquidity buffers."
Global Oil Glut Set to Halve in May - The global imbalance between oil supply and demand is set to halve to 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. That’s according to a new Rystad Energy analysis, which predicted a further fall to 6.1 million bpd in June. Rystad warned, however, that despite the improvement, the stock build will still overwhelm remaining global storage, which it says will fill “in weeks”. “While this may seem like a drastic improvement from April, the oil market is not magically fixed,” Rystad Energy Oil Market Analyst Louise Dickson said in a company statement. “The storage issue still looms large and will spill over onto trading floors, as buyers are left with crude they cannot physically place, and into the boardrooms of oil companies which must make very costly but necessary decisions to scale back production and give the market some breathing space,” Dickson added. According to Rystad, if sufficient production isn’t shuttered by May 19 - the expiration of the WTI June 2020 contract - then the potential remains for another “nightmare WTI price collapse”, which it does not rule out spreading to other crude blends. “However, given that most oil futures outside of WTI do not require the buyer to physically take oil delivery, and instead have cash settlement options, the destruction to other benchmarks should be tamer,” Rystad stated. Rystad outlined that it expects the oil price bottom is “in front of us rather than behind us” but added that it still believes in an oil price recovery, “possibly starting as early as June”. Rystad also highlighted that it sees a risk for a tight market in 2022 with prices “much higher than pre-crisis levels”. “This will be facilitated by a recovery in demand to above pre-Covid-19 levels in 2022, ongoing OPEC+ cuts, and a loss of supply capacity in both U.S. shale and long-cycled global production,” Rystad stated.
Oil pares losses and turns positive on demand recovery - Oil prices moved higher on Monday, reversing early losses, as optimism around a demand recovery offset fears after a fresh spat broke out between the United States and China over the origin of the virus. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 74 cents, or 3.7%, to trade at $20.46 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 65 cents, or 2.4%, to trade at $27.09. While global oil demand is expected to recover modestly from April lows as countries ease some lockdown measures, the glut created over months in storage facilities will loom over the markets. "As oil inventories are likely still increasing over the coming weeks, oil prices remain vulnerable to renewed setbacks," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. However, Goldman Sachs was more optimistic than before about the rise of oil prices next year due to lower crude production and a partial recovery in oil demand. The Wall Street bank raised its 2021 forecast for global benchmark Brent to $55.63 per barrel from $52.50 earlier. The bank hiked its estimate for WTI to $51.38 a barrel from $48.50 previously. Signs that the output cuts may help reduce the supply overhang have emerged with the narrowing of Brent's contango - the market structure in which later-dated prices are higher than prompt supplies. The six-month spread of Brent futures hit its narrowest in almost a month at a discount of around $6.50, up from a record wide discount of almost $14 in late-March, reflecting decreasing oversupply expectations and making storage for later sale less profitable. The re-emergence of trade tensions between the United State and China also weighed on prices. Adding to U.S. President Donald Trump's threat last week to impose tariffs on China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday there was "a significant amount of evidence" that the new coronavirus emerged from a Chinese laboratory. Concerns about weak manufacturing data in Asia and Europe, assessed by Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of manufacturing companies, also put pressure on oil prices. In Asia, a series of PMIs from IHS Markit fell deeper into contraction from March, with some diving to all-time lows and others hitting levels last seen during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. PMIs in France, the euro zone's second-biggest economy, dropped in April to the lowest level on record. IHS Markit's Final PMI for German manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Europe's largest economy, shrank at the fastest rate on record. The U.S. dollar surged against most major currencies on Monday amid fears that last year's U.S.-China dispute will be re-ignited. Oil is usually priced in dollars so a stronger greenback makes crude more expensive for buyers with other currencies.
Oil prices rise on demand prospects as lockdowns start to ease - Oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday, adding to gains in the previous session, on expectations that fuel demand will begin to pick up as some U.S. states and nations in Europe and Asia start to ease coronavirus lockdown measures. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose as much as 8.2% to a three-week high of $22.06 and were up 7.6%, or $1.55, at $21.94 at 0108 GMT. The U.S. benchmark is on a five-day win streak that started on April 29. Brent crude futures hit a high of $28.37 a barrel in early trade and were up 4.1%, or $1.12 cents, at $28.32. Brent is up for a sixth straight day. Both benchmark contracts rose about 3% on Monday. Prospects improved for fuel demand as some U.S. states and several countries, including Italy, Spain, Portugal, India and Thailand, began allowing some people to go back to work and opened up construction sites, parks and libraries. "Considering ... the depths of demand destruction, markets are probably inclined to take any good news relatively quickly," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. Global oil demand probably collapsed by as much as 30% in April, analysts have said, and the recovery is likely to be slow, especially with airlines expected to remain largely grounded for months to come. Australian national carrier Qantas Airways' Chief Executive Alan Joyce said on Tuesday that "international travel demand could take years to return to what it was." With Saudi Arabia, Russia other major producers and companies slashing output, the market shrugged off a decision by the Texas energy regulator to cancel a vote on mandating a 20% output cut in the United States' biggest oil-producing state. The Texas Railroad Commission had been due to hold the vote on Tuesday, but Commissioner Ryan Sitton was unable to win support from his fellow commissioners for the plan. The proposal was strongly opposed by oil trade groups and major shale producers. "The intent in itself was positive — but it was always going to be a long shot," Hynes said.
Oil jumps 13% in fifth day of gains on demand recovery and production cuts - Oil prices surged on Tuesday as optimism around ongoing production cuts and a recovery in demand with the reopening of economies around the world pushed prices higher. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 13%, or $2.66, to trade at $23.05 per barrel. The contract gained 3.08% on Monday — closing above $20 for the first time since mid-April — and is on pace for its fifth-straight day of gains for the first time since February. International benchmark Brent crude traded 7.8% higher at $29.32 per barrel, and is also pacing for its fifth-consecutive positive session. "One thing is clear, the demand bottom is behind us, and this is manifesting in oil prices which are on the rise," said Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy's head of analysis. The "key reason behind the price strengthening is regional traffic data, which indicate the demand bottom is behind us," he added. Oil demand has fallen off a cliff as the coronavirus pandemic spread around the globe, forcing billions of people to remain inside and bringing air travel to a near standstill. By some estimates as much as a third of worldwide demand was erased in April. But with economies gradually starting to reopen — a number of U.S. states, including Florida, began phase one reopening plans on Monday, while millions of Italians will return to work this week — investors believe there will be an uptick in demand. "The reopening of economies has injected a degree of cautious optimism back into an oil market that plunged to historic lows only weeks ago," RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note to clients Tuesday. "There's reason to believe the worst of the demand destruction is behind us. Commentary from multiple companies pointed to an improvement in US demand at the end of April, particularly for gasoline," added Stacey Morris, director of research at Alerian. The improving demand outlook comes as producers have scaled back production, which has also supported prices. The historic cut from OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which takes 9.7 million barrels per day offline, went into effect on May 1. Norway and Canada have also curbed production. In the U.S., data from the Energy Information Administration showed that weekly production averaged 12.1 million bpd for the week ending April 24, roughly 1 million bpd below the all-time high levels from March. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices. Oil's recent strength barely puts a dent in its historic fall, however. Both WTI and Brent are firmly in a bear market, plunging 68% and 62%, respectively, from their 52-week high levels. The decline has also been swift — WTI's 52-week high of $65.65 is from Jan. 8.
Oil surges 20%, posts fifth straight day of gains for first time since July - Oil prices surged on Tuesday as optimism around ongoing production cuts and a recovery in demand with the reopening of economies around the world pushed prices higher. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 20.45%, or $4.17, to settle at $24.56 per barrel. The contract gained 3.08% on Monday — closing above $20 for the first time since mid-April — and posted its fifth-straight day of gains, which is the longest daily winning streak since July. International benchmark Brent crude settled 13.86% higher at $30.97 per barrel, and also posted its fifth-consecutive positive session. "One thing is clear, the demand bottom is behind us, and this is manifesting in oil prices which are on the rise," said Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy's head of analysis. The "key reason behind the price strengthening is regional traffic data, which indicate the demand bottom is behind us," he added. President Donald Trump weighed in on the jump in prices, writing "Oil prices moving up nicely as demand begins again!" in a tweet on Tuesday morning. Oil demand has fallen off a cliff as the coronavirus pandemic spread around the globe, forcing billions of people to remain inside and bringing air travel to a near standstill. By some estimates as much as a third of worldwide demand was erased in April. But with economies gradually starting to reopen — a number of U.S. states, including Florida, began phase one reopening plans on Monday, while millions of Italians will return to work this week — investors believe there will be an uptick in demand. "The reopening of economies has injected a degree of cautious optimism back into an oil market that plunged to historic lows only weeks ago," RBC analyst Michael Tran said in a note to clients Tuesday. "There's reason to believe the worst of the demand destruction is behind us. Commentary from multiple companies pointed to an improvement in US demand at the end of April, particularly for gasoline," added Stacey Morris, director of research at Alerian. The improving demand outlook comes as producers have scaled back production, which has also supported prices. The historic cut from OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which takes 9.7 million barrels per day offline, went into effect on May 1. Norway and Canada have also curbed production. In the U.S., data from the Energy Information Administration showed that weekly production averaged 12.1 million bpd for the week ending April 24, roughly 1 million bpd below the all-time high levels from March. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices.
Oil prices dip due to rise in US crude inventories -- Oil prices have edged-down as higher than expected rise in US crude inventories has raised concerns over supply glut amid a slump in demand due to coronavirus. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $0.27, or 1.1%, to $24.29a barrel, at 0436 GMT, while Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell $0.20 to $30.77 a barrel at this time, Reuters reported. According to the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil prices slipped after a report indicated a rise of 8.4 million barrels in the US crude inventories last week. National Australia Bank commodity strategy head Lachlan Shaw was quoted by the news agency as saying: “We’re talking about normalisation of supply and demand but we’ve got a long way to go.” SK Innovation, the South Korea-based owner of refining firm SK Energy, said that it expects refining margins in the second quarter to be under pressure due to weak fuel demand and a glut in refined products as a result of the pandemic. Analysts also cited comments by US-based hydrocarbon exploration firm Diamondback Energy, which stated that it would consider reviving drilling plans if WTI crude futures are held above $30 per barrel. This signals that shale producers do not intend to shut production for a long period. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting official inventory data from Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is due to be released later today.
WTI Rebounds On Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Build, Production Cuts - Oil prices suddenly tumbled this morning after a five-day surge as it appears the surge in ADP unemployment data (completely expected) seemed to remind the machines of the persistent concern that the global glut will take a long time to eliminate as demand remains crushed by the coronavirus. Most analysts don’t see demand rebounding to pre-virus levels for at least a year, with some questioning if that will ever happen. The risk of a second wave of infections in the U.S. as states reopen can’t be discounted, while deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing may hamper the global economic recovery.“We’ve gone on Brent from $20 to $32, that’s a lot,” said Tor Svelland, chief executive officer of commodities fund Svelland Capital.“The demand destruction is still there, it’s a very, very strong move.”And while initially last night's bigger-than-expected API-reported crude build was ignored, oil prices are losing steam fast this morning. DOE:
- Crude +4.59mm (+7.1mm exp, +9.51mm WHIS)
- Cushing +2.068mm
- Gasoline -3.158mm (-400k exp)
- Distillates +9.518mm (+3.5mm exp) - biggest build since Jan 2019
This is the 15th straight week of crude inventory builds but notably less than expected (and lower than API's print). It appears the bulls are choosing to ignore the huge build in distillates (think perhaps airlines) WTI tumbled back to around $23.50 ahead of the DOE print and ripped back higher (though still down on the day) after the smaller than expected build... We will see if this spike holds...
Oil Prices Remain Lower Despite Tame Inventories Rise - Oil prices shrugged off bullish weekly report on U.S. inventories Wednesday as traders took a breather after the mammoth recent rally. WTI futuresfell 3.8% to $23.62 at 11:00 AM ET (15:00 GMT). London Brent was down 4.4% at $29.62. Oil inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels for the week ended May1, the EIA said. That compared with expectations for a build of about 7.8 million barrels, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Stocks at the national storage hub at Cushing, Okla., rose by 2.07 million barrels, the smallest increase in six weeks. That continued the downward trend in inventory builds as economies around the globe begin to reopen and eased some worries about storage room in the U.S. that forced futures to turn negative for the first time ever last month. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.2 million barrels, versus forecasts for a rise of about 43,000 barrels. Distillate stockpiles soared by 9.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a build of about 2.9 million barrels. “On the bullish side, we have an unexpected 3.2-million-barrel drop in gasoline that nicely follows through with the previous week’s 3.7-million drop,” Krishnan said. “You also have a Cushing build that’s slightly higher than the 1.8 million level cited by Genscape, instead of the scarier 2.8 million reported by API. This certainly takes some pressure off Cushing builds that had averaged 5 million barrels in four previous weeks.” “On the bearish end, of course, distillates came in more than treble to expectations,” he added. “And if you add the 1.7 million barrels that went into SPR storage last week, that will give you a net crude build of 6.3 million barrels.” “Also, refinery runs are finally above the 70% to capacity rate. Though that's way below the 90% and above norm for this time of year, it's still helped take more crude off the market compared to the previous week.”
Oil drops 2%, snapping five-day winning streak in volatile trading session - Oil prices dropped on Wednesday, snapping a five-session winning streak, as oversupply concerns outweighed optimism over economies reopening. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, shed 2.3%, or 57 cents, to settle at $23.99 per barrel. In a volatile session, the contract swung between a gain of more than 6% at the high — climbing to $26.08 — and a more than 8% loss, hitting a session low of $22.58 per barrel. On Tuesday the contract soared 20.45%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled 4% lower at $29.72 as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hit demand. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration released Wednesday showed that for the week ending May 1 inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, which was smaller than the 8.67 million barrels build analysts had been expecting, according to FactSet. Over the last week, WTI has soared more than 50% as easing shelter-in-place restrictions fueled optimism that demand for oil may have bottomed. "Crude oil volatility persists and after a nearly 100% sensational move higher (off of $14 on 4/29) WTI is incurring some profit taking," he told CNBC. "Additionally, the demand for crude remains quite opaque as re-openings of economies globally occur," he added. NationsShares president and chief investment officer Scott Nations noted that the recent run took the WTI contract for June delivery to its highest level since it became the front-month contract, so "the getting probably seemed good." An improving demand outlook spurred recent optimism, with prices also supported by producers announcing scale backs in operations. The historic cut from OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which takes 9.7 million barrels per day offline, went into effect on May 1. Norway and Canada have also curbed production. In the U.S., data from the Energy Information Administration showed that last week production declined by 200,000 bpd to 11.9 million bpd. This is 1.2 million bpd below March's record high. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices. But some note that as storage continues to fill, the announced shut-ins are still not enough. "Indications show that for yet another week, storage is continuing to fill up, despite the shut-ins and the output cuts," noted Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy. "Demand, which indeed now is on the recovery road, is not yet enough to balance the produced oil and that oil has to go somewhere," he added.
Oil drops nearly 2%, erasing earlier gain of more than 11% - Oil prices turned negative in afternoon trading on Thursday, as optimism that had previously supported prices began to fade. Earlier oil moved higher on several bullish factors, including U.S. companies cutting production, Saudi Arabia raising its official oil selling price and gasoline demand improving as economies around the world reopen. But oil couldn't hold onto early gains, and ultimately settle in the red. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, shed 44 cents, or 1.83%, to settle at $23.55 per barrel. Earlier in the session WTI had been up more than 11%, hitting a high of $26.74. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled 26 cents lower at $29.46 per barrel. Still, for the week WTI is up 19%. "Nascent signs of rebounding gasoline demand in the U.S. and a rapid curtailment of oil production that has seen U.S. producers cut over 1 million barrels per day of output in a matter of weeks has enabled oil prices to recover," Again Capital's John Kilduff told CNBC. "Volatility will remain the watchword, but there is an increasing sense that the worst is behind the industry, at this point." On Wednesday, data from the Energy Information Administration showed that for the week ending May 1 production declined by 200,000 barrels per day to 11.9 million bpd, which is more than 1 million bpd below March's record high. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices. "There has just been a fierce reaction by U.S. oil and exploration and production companies to really crater U.S. output. It's still very high, but it's working its way down rapidly," Kilduff added. While inventory in the U.S. is still rising, it's now at a slower clip. Last week, stockpiles grew by 4.6 million barrels, which was smaller than the 8.67 million barrels build analysts had been expecting, according to FactSet. And while demand for gasoline is still well below its highs, government data showed that it is starting to turn a corner as states open up their economies. Mizuho energy analyst Paul Sankey noted that oil also got a boost after Saudi Arabia raised its official oil selling prices, which "alleviates pressure on global crude pricing." "They are still fighting for market share (against Iraq/Iran primarily) in Asia, but have backed off US market share competition all-but completely," he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. Given WTI's nearly 40% gain this month, some say the rally is overdone, especially as storage around the world continues to fill. "We're not out of the woods yet," Kilduff added. "There still may be one more flirtation with negative pricing when this June contract goes off the board in a couple of weeks, but beyond that we should be clear of those kind of worries."
Oil jumps 5%, posts second straight week of gains - Oil prices rose on Friday and were on course for a second consecutive week of gains as U.S. producers rapidly shut crude production and more states moved ahead with plans to relax lockdowns intended to prevent the spread of the worst public health crisis in a generation. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.19, or 5%, to settle at $24.74 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude gained $1.51 to settle at $30.97 per barrel. "This advance of the past couple of weeks has been a bit suspect given the fact that coronavirus cases continue to increase and the U.S. crude surplus is maintaining a steep up trend where a record U.S. stock level is likely to be achieved in next week's EIA report," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report on Wednesday showed 15 weeks of consecutive rises in crude stocks although the rate of growth in inventories has slowed since a record build of 19 million barrels in early April. However, the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs fell by 34 to an all-time low of 374 this week - reflecting data going back 80 years - as the energy industry slashes output and spending to deal with the coronavirus-led crash in fuel demand. North American oil companies have shut production faster than analysts expected and are on track to withdraw about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by the end of June. These commercially-driven cuts are in addition to those by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a group know as OPEC+, which began implementing a deal to curb a record 9.7 million bpd from the start of May. Market spectators are now watching for more data that supports OPEC+ countries are complying with production cuts, according to Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. "I expect now prices will pull back to $20 a barrel because skepticism will come into the market about the compliance of OPEC+ on the production cuts," said Lipow. Iraq has yet to inform its regular oil buyers of cuts to its exports, suggesting it is struggling to fully implement supply cuts. "All it takes is one or two countries not to comply and it could open the door for others," Lipow said. .
Oil futures finish higher, with U.S. prices up 25% for the week - Crude-oil futures finished higher on Friday, with optimism over production cuts and rising demand for gasoline lifting to U.S. benchmark prices up by 25% this week. The moves come a day after a sharp rally collapsed amid doubts over compliance with an agreement to cut global production and comments from central bankers that injected some doubt about the pace of global economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. “While rising crude and product stocks continue to pose a threat to market fundamentals, key trends on both the supply and demand side have shifted bullish in recent data,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.19, or 5.1%, to settle at $24.74 a barrel. Prices for the front-month contract rose 25.1% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Global benchmark July Brent crude added $1.51, or 5.1%, at $30.97 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a 17.1% weekly climb. “On the supply side, Saudi Arabia has increased its export price” as output cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are officially under way, Fraser said in a daily market note.
Qatar’s migrant workers beg for food as Covid-19 infections rise - Low-wage migrant workers in Qatar, one of the richest countries in the world, say they have been forced to beg for food as the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic takes a devastating toll, following a surge in the outbreak that has seen one-in-four people test positive. In more than 20 interviews, workers in the World Cup host nation have described a mounting sense of desperation, frustration and fear. Many told the Guardian they have suddenly been left jobless, with no other way to earn a living. Others say they are desperate, but unable, to return home. Some have been forced to plead for food from their employers or charities. “I don’t have much food left. Just some rice and lentils. It will last only a few days. What happens when this food finishes?” said Rafiq, a cleaner from Bangladesh who lost his job in March. Qatar, home to over 2 million migrant workers, now has one of the highest rates of infection per capita in the world with almost 18,000 cases in a population of just 2.8 million. Over 25% of those tested for the virus in the past week have been found to be infected; the vast majority migrant workers. The government says almost all the cases are mild, and death rates have remained very low, with just 12 fatalities. The cost to livelihoods has been compounded by a government directive in mid-April allowing companies that have stopped operating due to coronavirus restrictions to put workers on unpaid leave or terminate their contracts. The government said food and accommodation, which is usually arranged by employers, must continue to be provided, but workers’ testimonies suggest in some cases this is not happening. A Filipino beautician who arrived in Qatar two months ago said she received just half a month’s pay and has now been laid off. “My boss says he has no money. How about my family in the Philippines? They need my money … How will I get food? There is no one to give us. Even my boss is not giving [food],” she said. Some of the worst hit are undocumented workers and those on so-called “free visas”, who often rely on short-term or casual work, without a regular employer to provide food and housing. Saidul, a decorator from Bangladesh working on a free visa, said he has been without a job since mid-March. “I have spent all my savings. I am borrowing money from friends and relatives for food and rent. It’s very difficult to carry on without work … I’m not afraid of corona. The problem is there isn’t any work,” he said.
China Counters Coronavirus Crunch With a Surprise Rise in Exports – WSJ —Chinese exports rose unexpectedly in April, bucking a pandemic-induced economic slump that has crimped demand and disrupted supply chains world-wide. But economists warned that Chinese exporters may be enjoying a temporary reprieve and aren’t likely immune to a global downturn that remains highly uncertain—a reality underscored by a surprise plunge in Chinese imports. China’s outbound shipments rose 3.5% in April compared with a year earlier, compared with the 6.6% year-over-year decline in March, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Thursday. The result was far better than the 18.8% year-over-year drop expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. China’s April export figure reflected a clearing of backlogs of delayed orders from earlier this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, economists said. Southeast Asia, which as a bloc surpassed the European Union and the U.S. as China’s largest export destination earlier this year, continued to offset losses from more advanced Western economies. Chinese officials also highlighted increased demand from countries that signed on to Beijing’s infrastructure-and-trade project, the Belt and Road Initiative, which are primarily clustered in Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East.Chinese imports, meantime, fell 14.2% last month, far sharper than March’s 0.9% drop and the biggest decline since February 2016, indicating rapidly weakening demand at home. The unexpected surge in exports and drop in imports helped China’s trade surplus balloon to $45.34 billion last month, compared with a $19.9 billion surplus in March. Economists, and Chinese government officials, are generally pessimistic about China’s ability to sustain the April export strength, particularly as the growth picture sours further in the U.S. and Europe.
China to redouble efforts in resuming work, production to maintain stability in employment, livelihood - (Xinhua) -- China will introduce and further improve policies to keep employment stable and ensure people's livelihood, the State Council's executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang decided on Wednesday. Those at the meeting heard a progress report on the delivery of polices previously introduced to drive production resumption and business development. The Wednesday meeting took stock of the strong and targeted policy measures that government departments across the country have introduced over the recent months. These measures, 90 in total covering eight areas, were designed to advance the resumption of work and production and tide companies over difficulties. These include more VAT relief for micro, small and household businesses, extending the loss carry-forward period from five years to eight years for sectors severely hit by COVID-19, such as transportation, catering and tourism; lowering or waiving 600 billion yuan (about 85.7 billion U.S. dollars) of employers' contributions to the old-age pension, unemployment and workplace safety insurance schemes in the first half of the year, and adopting the refund of unemployment insurance premiums for keeping payrolls stable, which has benefitted over 84 million employees. The measures also include waiving over 140 billion yuan of road and expressway tolls, and cutting electricity and gas rates for enterprises by 67 billion yuan in the first half of the year, releasing 1.75 trillion yuan of funds by cutting the required reserve ratio; providing 2.85 trillion yuan of low-cost lending for businesses, especially micro, small, and medium-sized firms and household businesses, through special relending and rediscount, encouraging state-owned large banks to issue inclusive loans to small and micro businesses, and increasing the special credit quota of policy banks; deferring over 1 trillion yuan of principal or interest payments for more than 1.1 million micro, small and medium-sized businesses and stepping up support for spring farming and the development of animal husbandry. "The support policies introduced earlier are adequate. In other words, our policy response is appropriate in its intensity and prompt in timing," Li said.
Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus - (Reuters) - An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters. The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said. As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter. The report was drawn up by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, China’s top intelligence body. Reuters has not seen the briefing paper, but it was described by people who had direct knowledge of its findings. “I don’t have relevant information,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement responding to questions from Reuters on the report.
Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program - China deliberately suppressed or destroyed evidence of the coronavirus outbreak in an “assault on international transparency’’ that cost tens of thousands of lives, according to a dossier prepared by concerned Western governments on the COVID-19 contagion. The 15-page research document, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, lays the foundation for the case of negligence being mounted against China. It states that to the “endangerment of other countries” the Chinese government covered-up news of the virus by silencing or “disappearing” doctors who spoke out, destroying evidence of it in laboratories and refusing to provide live samples to international scientists who were working on a vaccine. It can also be revealed the Australian government trained and funded a team of Chinese scientists who belong to a laboratory which went on to genetically modify deadly coronaviruses that could be transmitted from bats to humans and had no cure, and is now the subject of a probe into the origins of COVID-19. As intelligence agencies investigate whether the virus inadvertently leaked from a Wuhan laboratory, the team and its research led by scientist Shi Zhengli feature in the dossier prepared by Western governments that points to several studies they conducted as areas of concern. It cites their work discovering samples of coronavirus from a cave in the Yunnan province with striking genetic similarity to COVID-19, along with their research synthesising a bat-derived coronavirus that could not be treated. Its major themes include the “deadly denial of human-to-human transmission”, the silencing or “disappearing” of doctors and scientists who spoke out, the destruction of evidence of the virus from genomic studies laboratories, and “bleaching of wildlife market stalls”, along with the refusal to provide live virus samples to international scientists working on a vaccine. .
Australian governments reopen schools despite studies warning of COVID-19 danger The federal Liberal-National government launched a revealing public attack on the Victorian state Labor government last Sunday for allegedly not moving fast enough to reopen public schools. Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s “Insiders” television program on Sunday morning that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews had taken a “sledgehammer” to the state’s schools and was guilty of a “failure of leadership” on reopening schools. Within hours, Tehan issued a statement retracting his accusations, claiming that personal “frustration” had “led me to overstep the mark in questioning Premier Andrews’ leadership on this matter.” Clearly, however, Tehan would not have made his original remarks unless they were part of a calculated operation by Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government. Just days earlier, the Morrison government had ramped-up the pressure for a return to full classroom teaching by trying to bribe private schools with early payments of $3.3 billion in funding, but only if they got at least half their students physically back in class within a month. Both the funding “offer” and the Tehan interview on “Insiders” represent an escalation of a drive on behalf of big business, which is demanding that students return to classrooms so that their parents can be returned to workplaces. This is an increasingly naked offensive, intent on restoring the generation of profits, regardless of the danger of a second COVID-19 wave of infection. Andrews was the nominal victim of the vehement attack—for not yet setting a deadline for pushing teachers and students back into classrooms in Victoria. But the real target is the resistance of teachers and parents, and working-class people more broadly, to being pushed back into unsafe workplace conditions for the benefit of the corporate elite.
Global Factory Output Plunges, With Slow Rebound Projected – WSJ - Factory output plummeted across Asia, Europe and Latin America during April, according to surveys of purchasing managers, as efforts to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus dealt a blow to the global economy that has few precedents in its breadth and abruptness. From India to Poland to Mexico, purchasing managers at manufacturing businesses told data firm IHS Markit the same story: April saw the sharpest fall in output and other measures of activity on record. Similar surveys for the U.S. released Friday painted a similar picture. With many countries already easing restrictions on movement and social interaction, and more to follow in May, governments, businesses and workers will hope that last month marked the high point in terms of the economic cost of containing the pandemic. But a quick rebound to the level of activity recorded before the first lockdowns were imposed in January is unlikely. “Steps needed to keep workers safe will mean even businesses that are able to restart production will generally be running at low capacity, and most will be operating in an environment of greatly reduced demand,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. In terms of the affected population, India imposed the largest lockdown during April, and the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing in the world’s second-most populous country recorded the economic cost. The measure collapsed to 27.4 from 51.8 in March, one of the swiftest swings from growth to sharp contraction that has been recorded globally. A reading above 50.0 indicates a rise in activity, while a reading below that level points to a decline. Indonesia’s manufacturing sector contracted at almost the same rate, again reflecting extensive lockdowns. In both countries, factories said they had laid off workers at a record pace. The surveys also showed record declines in manufacturing activity in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, while in Taiwan and South Korea the contractions were the deepest since the last global financial crisis. South Korea’s government decided against the broad lockdowns enforced by many other countries, instead relying on voluntary social distancing and widespread testing to identify people infected by the virus, and trace and isolate those they had contact with. But its manufacturing sector also contracted in April, hit by the sharpest drop in exports on record. IHS Markit said that even when factories had overseas orders to meet, they reported difficulties in shipping goods to customers in Japan, Taiwan and India.
I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis - It's Friday morning in Alexandra township – a poor neighborhood on the outskirts of South Africa's largest city, Johannesburg – and dozens of people are gathered in a field outside a food distribution point, hoping today might be the day they get something to eat."If you're hungry, it's easy to get sick from stress and everything," says Mduduzi Khumalo, who's been lining up every day for two weeks. To get food your name has to be on the list and, so far, despite registering multiple times, his hasn't been.Khumalo worked as a delivery man before South Africa's coronavirus lockdown decimated his income. His children used to get two meals a day at school, but schools are closed now. Every day, the kids wait for him at the family's tiny home, and every day brings the same bad news."They know that if I don't get anything for them, it's over," Khumalo tells CBS News. The coronavirus pandemic has left the world facing an unprecedented hunger crisis. The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) has warned that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation – double last year's figures. "In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries," warned WFP director David Beasley. He said the world could face multiple famines "of biblical proportions within a few short months."
Teachers, parents and students defy order to reopen schools in Chile - Many thousands of parents, students, educators, and childcare workers have opposed the Chilean government’s push for face-to-face teaching during an expected peak of the coronavirus pandemic. The push by the ultra-right government of President Sebastian Piñera is in response to the deepening economic crisis and demands from the financial and corporate elite for immediate implementation of return-to-work measures irrespective of the health consequences. Education Minister Raul Figueroa and Health Minister Jaime Mañalich have spearheaded the back-to-work drive. In a deceitful diatribe last month, Mañalich said he had opposed the closure of schools from the outset because it put children in harm’s way. “We never wanted, we never shared as a health ministry the idea of closing the schools, never. And the evidence we now have accumulated shows that this was indeed a serious mistake, which left children without vaccination, without education, without food, without protection,” he claimed. This was nothing but a malicious attempt to browbeat parents to send their children back to school. The fact is that the entire administration has responded to the pandemic with criminal negligence and brazen lies, seeking from the beginning to downplay the dangers posed by the novel coronavirus. Mañalich first argued that the virus would mutate into something like the regular flu. In early April, he falsely claimed that the number of infections had plateaued and Chile had reached its first peak. Today he is issuing COVID-19 immunity cards insisting that once infected, recovered patients cannot be reinfected, in complete disregard of the World Health Organization’s warning to avoid categorical assertions on the as yet unknown impact of the virus. The public hospitals continue to be starved of critical equipment, PPE and personnel, while it has been revealed that some private hospitals have accepted no COVID-19 patients. New mechanical respiratory ventilators that the minister claimed were purchased in January have dwindled in the course of three months from 1,000, to 600 to 400 to 72 when they finally arrived last week.
Canadian workers at Cargill meatpacking plant forced back to work despite 935 infections - Hundreds of workers at the giant Cargill meatpacking plant in High River, Alberta fearfully returned to their jobs Monday morning after attempts to keep the company from re-opening in the wake of a massive coronavirus outbreak were rejected by provincial officials. In the largest single localized outbreak in North America, 935 of the plant’s 2,000 workers have already been infected by the highly contagious and potentially lethal COVID-19 virus. Six hundred close contacts of the meatpackers have also tested positive. To date, one worker, Vietnamese immigrant Hiep Bui, has died from the illness, as well as one close contact. Seven workers have been hospitalized with 5 in intensive care. Nonetheless, over the weekend, Cargill issued a statement instructing all “healthy and eligible” workers to report for work in the two-shift operation. In a survey of its membership, the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) reported that 85 percent were afraid to return to the plant. About eighty percent of Cargill production employees are low-wage immigrant workers from the Philippines, Vietnam and China, many of whom are on Temporary Foreign Worker visas. The workers not only fear possible infection, they also worry that refusing company directives could endanger their work status in the country. Despite these fears, the UFCW has refused to organize any job action to stop Cargill’s return to work order. Local union president Thomas Hesse has been outspoken on the company’s refusal to incorporate the union’s safety proposals into its back-to-work protocols. "It's ridiculous that hundreds of workers can be required to pour into the plant to kill 4,000 to 5,000 cattle a day, while if you climb on the monkey bars in your local park you're going to get a ticket," he said. Although Cargill has installed plexiglass separations for line workers, the packers work elbow to elbow and face to face with their colleagues. Noise on the shop floor requires close communication with supervisors and fellow workers. Face masks quickly become useless in the wet, humid environment. With so many meatpackers off work, close-quarter training in the midst of the fast-paced environment has fostered unsafe practices. But with the union’s attempts to convince provincial officials to keep the plant closed until further safety measures are put in place falling on deaf ears, Hesse was keen to tell reporters that no work stoppages would be organized. “We are looking at legal options. We are not asking for a work stoppage. A work stoppage would not be legal,” he said.
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern' - Norwegian Cruise Line said there is "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a "going concern" as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the industry, the company said in a securities filing published Tuesday. The coronavirus outbreak, "including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price," the company said. "These factors have raised substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."
UK auto sales plummet to lowest level since 1946 -New car registrations in the U.K. plummeted in April as measures to tackle the coronavirus pandemic severely disrupted the sector. Figures released on Tuesday from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that only 4,321 new cars were registered last month, compared to 161,064 in April 2019. The registration numbers for April 2020 are the lowest since February 1946. The sobering statistics reflect a challenging environment for the U.K. automotive industry, with showrooms across the country shuttered due to stringent lockdown measures. In April, diesel and gasoline vehicle registrations came to just 1,079 and 1,553, year-on-year drops of 97.6% and 98.5% respectively. Battery electric vehicle, or BEV, registrations fell by 9.7% in April, which the SMMT put down to "some pre-ordered deliveries of the latest premium models" being able to be fulfilled. Indeed, in a sign of how disrupted and unrepresentative the current market is, the two best selling cars in the U.K. last month were battery electric: the Tesla Model 3 and Jaguar I-Pace. The current situation is undoubtedly unique, as highlighted by the fact that the 31.8% market share for battery electric vehicles in April 2020 was actually higher than diesel's share of 25%. If year-to-date figures are used, however, the market reverts to a more familiar picture, with the BEV share dropping to just 4% compared to 19% for diesel and 60.2% for gasoline. Looking at the bigger picture, the SMMT is now forecasting 1.68 million registrations for 2020, a 27% drop compared to 2019 and the lowest level since 1992, when 1.59 million units were registered. The BEV market is seen doubling to 77,300 units in 2020.
Bank of England sees worst slump in 300 years as coronavirus bites - (Reuters) - The Bank of England said Britain could be headed for its biggest economic slump in over 300 years due to the coronavirus lockdown and kept the door open on Thursday for more stimulus next month. In what it called an ‘illustrative scenario’ rather than a standard forecast, the BoE said Britain’s economy might be on course to shrink by 25% in the three months to June and unemployment could more than double to 9% of the workforce. In 2020 as a whole, output risked shrinking by 14% - the biggest plunge since a ‘Great Frost’ in 1709 - despite the huge stimulus provided so far by the BoE’s rock-bottom interest rates and mammoth bond-buying programme, as well as the government’s 100 billion pound ($124 billion) emergency budget measures. The central bank’s scenario did, however, include a sharp economic bounce-back in 2021 with growth of 15% if lockdown restrictions are loosened over the coming months. The BoE kept its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at 645 billion pounds. Two of its nine policymakers - Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel - voted for a further 100 billion pounds of bond-buying firepower and Governor Andrew Bailey said the BoE was ready to act again.
No comments:
Post a Comment