week ending Aug 15

Three Percent Of The Fed's Corporate Bond Holdings Are Junk Rated - (graph, tables) It is only appropriate that on the day Ball Corporation sold a bond with the lowest "high" yield ever for a junk bond, at 2.875%...... that the Fed would publish its latest corporate bond purchase data, in which we find that as of July 31, some 3% of the corporate bonds purchased by the Fed in its SMCCF facility, and 2.8% of corporate bond purchased via the Fed's SMCCF broad market index were junk, or BB, rated (technically, some BB credits are likely IG, but for the sake of simplicity we will "round down" and assume all BBs are sub-investment grade). Some other notable facts: as of last Monday, the Fed owned 916 CUSIPs outright, with a par value of $3.349BN, which include among others bonds issued by Berkshire Hathaway, foreign automakers such as Toyota, Nissan, Daimler, BMW and Hyundai; US giants such as Walmart, General Motors, General Electric, Visa, Microsoft, McDonalds, Novartis and Pfizer; REITs such as Simon Property, Duke Realty, National Retail Properties; Energy companies such as Exxon, Spectra Energy, Sempra Energy, Sabine Pass, Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan; non-ESG names such as Philip Morris and J&J and, of course, Apple.m  Looking at just ETFs, as of July 31 the Fed had purchased $8.7ZBN in mostly IG ETFs, but also some high pardon "low yield" junk bond ETFs such as JNK, HYG and so on.  For brokered trades, the Fed purchased $2.37 billion directly from Wall Street firms, of which Morgan Stanley, Amherst Pierpont, Wells Fargo, Goldman and Barclays Capital were the biggest sellers of their own inventory. Finally, when buying bonds in the open market, the Fed is infinitely generous purchasing CUSIPs at prices far, far above par, which we can only assume is in line with market prices however since the Fed must purchase these bonds, the broker on the trade can declare any offer and the Fed will have to lift it.

Fed to Lower Rates for Cities, States Seeking Short-Term Loans – WSJ -The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would reduce the rates it charges cities and states seeking short-term loans from an emergency lending program that has seen little takeup so far. Changes to the program must be agreed upon by the Treasury Department, which has approved $35 billion to cover losses on up to $500 billion in loans extended by the Fed. Municipal bond strategists and some Democratic lawmakers have expressed disappointment in recent weeks over the degree to which the Fed positioned the program as a backstop, though Fed officials say the mere announcement of the program in April helped reduce borrowing costs significantly for highly rated municipal issuers. With Tuesday’s changes, the Fed will reduce by 0.5 percentage point the interest-rate spread on tax-exempt notes, and it will also reduce the amount by which rates for taxable notes are adjusted relative to tax-exempt notes. The Fed is walking a careful line in a series of lending programs it has created to backstop credit markets. It announced the programs in late March and early April when many markets weren’t functioning well, but the announcement of those programs has encouraged private investors to lend, reducing demand for Fed loans. That is raising difficult questions for the Fed and Treasury over how aggressively to use money approved by Congress to encourage additional lending. In June, the Fed tweaked its corporate-debt lending program to actively purchase bonds from nearly 800 eligible firms even if they haven’t sought Fed help. The Fed has repeatedly broadened the number of local governments eligible for the lending program to allow more than 300 municipal issuers. So far, the Fed has purchased only one such note. The state of Illinois sold $1.2 billion of debt to the central bank in June at a rate more than 1 percentage point below the rate at which it was previously able to access markets in May.

Demand for Fed's Main Street loan program is growing, Rosengren says — Despite a slow start, the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending Program is gaining steam, said Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren. In a speech Wednesday, Rosengren said the $600 billion middle-market business rescue program as of Aug. 10 had purchased participations in 32 loans totaling about $250 million. That is four times the amount of loans processed through the program as of July 27. The central bank has caught flak for the coronavirus relief program's lackluster peformance out of the gate and because the Fed needed three months to set it up. Members of a congressionally appointed panel overseeing pandemic assistance efforts have even questioned the value of the Fed program. But Rosengren said the recent growth in loan participations shows the program is proving its worth as the persistence of the pandemic is forcing more businesses to seek credit. He noted that an additional 55 loans worth $574 million are under review for possible Fed purchases. “Much of the increase [in loans] has occurred recently, and I expect we will continue to see more activity as more firms are impacted by the pandemic,” Rosengren said in remarks to the South Shore Chamber of Commerce in Massachusetts. “Unfortunately, should the fall bring a resurgence of the virus as many epidemiological models predict, this program may become even more essential.” The program, which is being funded by the Fed and the Treasury Department through congressional appropriations in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, is available to businesses with up to either 15,000 employees or $5 billion in annual revenue. Eligible companies can receive a loan of at least $250,000 and up to $300 million through the program. The pace of lending is consistent with “a gradual pace of initial activity that is more recently expanding as participants become familiar with the program’s parameters,” Rosengren said. “When the program was launched in early July, there were relatively few Main Street program loans submitted for participation purchase,” he said. “As borrowers and banks have become more familiar with the program, we have seen a steady increase in banks submitting loans to our portal.” So far, 522 lenders have registered with th e Main Street program; of those, more than 200 have assets of $1 billion to $10 billion.

 Q3 GDP Forecasts -- Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  A 15% annualized increase in GDP is about 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).   Also, a 15% annualized increase would leave real GDP down about 7.5%  from Q4 2019. A 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 5.7% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 5.5% from Q4 2019. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous high. Also, even if activity is flat in Q3 compared to June, GDP will show a significant increase in Q3 over Q2 because of the sharp decline in April.   From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP tracking remains at -32.6% qoq saar. We expect 3Q GDP growth of +15%. [August 14 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 14.8% for 2020:Q3. [August 14 estimate]   And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 26.2 percent on August 14, up from 20.5 percent on August 7. [August 14 estimate]

Q3 Preview: Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak --A key measure of the economy is real GDP. As the NBER committee notes in their business cycle dating procedure:The committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity.We are seeing forecasts of a 15% to 25% increase in annualized real GDP in Q3 2020. It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 15% annualized increase in GDP is about 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Also, a 15% annualized increase would leave real GDP down about 7.5% from Q4 2019.      A 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 5.7% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 5.5% from Q4 2019.  The following graph illustrates these declines. This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.6% from the previous peak.  For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The two black arrows show what a 15% or 25% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3.Even with a 25% annualized increase (about 5.7% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 5.5% from Q4 2019; a larger decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.

Coronavirus-Hit State Budgets Create a Drag on U.S. Recovery – WSJ —Spending cuts by state and local governments grappling with the coronavirus pandemic pose a headwind to the U.S. economic recovery as lawmakers consider how much federal aid to provide.State and local governments reduced spending at a 5.6% annual rate in the second quarter as they laid off workers and pulled back on services to offset plunging tax revenues. More cuts are on the way.Moody’s Analytics estimates that without additional federal aid, state and local budget shortfalls will total roughly $500 billion over the next two fiscal years. That would shave more than 3 percentage points off U.S. gross domestic product and cost more than 4 million jobs, said Dan White, head of fiscal policy research at Moody’s.Talks in Congress on another economic relief package have stalled, with assistance for state and local governments among the sticking points. Democrats are pushing for $950 billion.Republican leaders, who didn’t include aid for cities and states in their initial plan, have offered $150 billion. They cite concerns about growing U.S. deficits and debt, and they say some state budget woes predate the pandemic. President Trump, in a tweet on Monday, suggested Democrats “only wanted BAILOUT MONEY for Democrat run states and cities that are failing badly.” Estimates of state revenue shortfalls show that the effects of the pandemic will reverberate in red and blue states alike, although its severity and the extent of lockdowns varies by state, and there are Republicans among the lawmakers calling for aid. “I understand concerns about spending, but the cost of doing nothing is worse,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.). “The United States cannot fully recover economically if local communities cannot provide basic services, allowing commerce to flow,” Mr. Cassidy said on the Senate floor last month. State and local governments spent or invested $2.33 trillion in 2019, equivalent to 10.9% of gross domestic product. They employ 13% of U.S. workers, whose spending fuels economic growth and who help deliver essential services and safety-net programs, such as unemployment insurance and nutrition assistance.

High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). On Aug 2nd, the seven day average was 686,360 compared to the seven average of 2,589,300 a year ago. The seven day average is down 73% from last year.    The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.  Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". The 7 day average for New York is still off 75%.  Texas is down 51% YoY.  Note that dining declined in many areas as the number of COVID cases surged. It appears dining is increasing again (probably mostly outdoor dining). This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 6th.  Movie ticket sales have picked up a slightly from the bottom, but are still under $1 million per week (compared to usually around $300 million per week), and ticket sales have essentially been at zero for twenty weeks. Most movie theaters are closed all across the country, and will probably reopen slowly (probably with limited seating at first). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  COVID-19 crushed hotel occupancy, however the occupancy rate has increased in 15 of the last 16 weeks, and is currently down 35% year-over-year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline consumption compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline consumption was off almost 50% YoY. As of July 31st, gasoline consumption was only off about 11% YoY (about 89% of normal).  This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index.  IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 53% of the January level. It is at 48% in New York, and 55% in Houston. 

The Double Dip Cometh? --Menzie Chinn - My base scenario is a slow recovery. However, I have always viewed — given the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration — the possibility of a double dip recession as a real one. Today, Diane Swonk lays out the case: Chart 1 lays out two scenarios for the economy over the next six months. We are down to about a 50/50 chance of the economy slipping again in the fourth quarter. This is despite an expected $1.5 trillion in additional aid from Congress. Another downturn would push out the time it takes to reach the pre-crisis peak in economic performance by six months, relative to our base case.…The White House has issued several executive orders intended to partially replace benefits, cut payroll taxes and reinstate moratoriums on evictions, but little appears actionable. The lapse in unemployment benefits alone will take weeks (if not longer) to restore, while evictions have already started. The level of extra unemployment benefits is expected to be cut from $600 to $400 per week … A drop in payrolls could come as soon as August when the remainder of the funds tied to the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans and grants are set to run out. Swonk gives 50/50 chance to each of the below scenarios. That’s the same logic that that induced me to say today: “We tried to skip over the step of getting the infection rates to manageable levels,” he continues. “We are in what I feared, and many people feared, which was a sort of stop-and-go policy. We tried to get the economy going, but we don’t have the prerequisites in place.”……without a new federal recovery package, “what we’ve seen so far is just a prelude and it will get a lot worse,” he warns. “You’ve got withdrawal of stimulus, and lots of uncertainty for lots of people, and that’s not conducive to people spending.”

Teetering on the Precipice (Still) -  Menzie Chinn -  Round 6 results of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series is out. Fivethirtyeightcharacterizes the results:A sudden uptick in food insecurity. A wave of evictions. People spending less money at shops and restaurants. More job losses.According to leading economists, that’s what’s likely in store for the U.S. economy this year if Congress doesn’t renew any of the $600-per-week supplementary payment for unemployed workers by Sept. 1. … My assessment, taking into account the generally upward revisions in expectations, is included in the article:But even their revised predictions are still pretty gloomy. “Remember that 10 percent used to be the depths of a severe recession, and other measures of the labor market like participation and underemployment are still very bad,” Wright added.So while the July jobs report might have seemed, on the surface, to deliver good news, the survey makes clear that there is plenty that could keep us in the economic doldrums for the foreseeable future — particularly if Congress doesn’t act at some point soon. Menzie Chinn, an economist at the University of Madison-Wisconsin, said the July jobs report only confirmed his suspicion that the economic recovery was starting to plateau. Now, he thinks a W-shaped recovery — where the economy improves somewhat, only to crash again — is still possible, and “a stall is more and more likely.” What are the perceived risk factors? The poll results are all here. Notice the possibility of no significant Phase 4 bill figures substantially as a downside risk (I listed as the biggest risk). Fivethirtyeight article here, all poll results here. Diane Swonk on the W-shape recovery scenario, here.

Fed Deficit Leaps From Under 5% of GDP last year to 15% Now - In the second quarter, the federal deficit leaped from under 5% of GDP last year to near 15% now. This is new record compared to the prior record of almost 10% of GDP that Obama inherited from Bush. Yes, falling nominal GDP played a role, but a weak economy always plays a role in setting new record deficits.  But in considering what new stimulus Washington comes up with it will serve us well to remember that the new base line already starts at 15% of GDP. While economists and others are debating the shape of any economic rebound we may  happen to experience, it might serve you well to remember Japan’s lost decade.  It was dominated by the government repeatedly providing stimulus with one hand while simultaneously taking it away with the other hand   All the while this was accompanied by new record government deficits. Maybe what we learned from Japan is that government can stop the economy from collapsing, but to get the economy growing again could be a very different issue.

Budget Deficit Hits Record As U.S. Spends 100% More Than It Collects YTD (see graphics)Those who have been following the record surge in US public debt (excluding the roughly $100 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations), which exploded by $3 trillion in the three months following the covid shutdowns and which hit an all time high $26.547 recently, will be all too aware that the US budget deficit this year - and every year after - will be staggering. Sure enough, in the latest just released deficit report, the Treasury announced that in July the US burned through another $63BN, which however was a major "improvement" after the record $862 billion deficit recorded in June, as government receipts soared thanks to the July 15 tax date even as spending remained in the stratosphere. Specifically according to the Treasury, in July, government outlays were $626.5 billion, an increase of 68.8% Y/Y from the $371 billion spent last July if 43% below the record June outlays of $1.1 trillion... ... while receipts jumped to the highest on record, surging 124.2% Y/Y to $563.5BN, up 132% from the $242.8BN in June receipts, which however was a one-time surge thanks to the July 15 tax filing deadline, and will promptly fade in the coming months. The chart below shows the July 2020 breakdown between various receipts and outlays. On a YTD basis, 10 months into the 2020 fiscal year, the US has spent $5.631 trillion and collected just $2.824 trillion, which means that YTD outlays are a record 100% higher than receipts, which also includes the $8.3BN received last month and $63.4BN YTD in deposits of earnings by the Fed. And since outlays equal receipts plus the deficit, it will come as no surprise to anyone that in the first 10 months of fiscal, the US budget deficit is a record $2.807 trillion (compared to "just" $866.8 billion in 2019), higher than at any other time in US history and unfortunately due to "helicopter money" it is unlikely that the exploding deficit will ever shrink again until the monetary system is overhauled... or collapses. 

CBO Estimates Federal Budget Deficit Shrank in July – WSJ --The federal budget deficit shrank last month from a year earlier as households and businesses made tax payments that had been delayed from April, the Congressional Budget Office estimated. The CBO on Monday said the budget gap last month totaled $61 billion, compared with $120 billion in July 2019, as revenue jumped. The Internal Revenue Service pushed back the April 15 tax-payment deadline in an effort to keep more cash in Americans’ wallets in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic. Tax receipts totaled $563 billion, compared with $312 billion in the same period a year earlier, which CBO attributed to the delayed payment deadlines. But the agency noted receipts were still down 10% between April and June from a year earlier, reflecting the deep economic downturn triggered by the pandemic, which triggered widespread business closures and layoffs that have reduced tax revenue for the government. The deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2020 reached $2.8 trillion, CBO estimated, $1.9 trillion more than the deficit recorded in the same period last year. Revenues were 1% lower and outlays were 51% higher in the period. Federal spending has soared after Congress approved trillions in economic relief measures, including enhanced unemployment benefits, stimulus checks for households and emergency small-business loans. Outlays totaled $624 billion last month, a 68% increase from the same period last year. Outlays more than doubled from April through July, after rising 7% in the first six months of the fiscal year, CBO said. Higher spending on jobless benefits, small-business loans, stimulus payments and health care were among the biggest drivers of increased outlays, while net interest costs declined thanks to lower inflation and interest rates. The CBO has projected the annual deficit could total $3.7 trillion in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30. The gap could widen further if Congress and the White House agree on another round of emergency spending, which economists argue is vital to keep households and businesses afloat until the economy begins to recover. But the talks have stalled amid disagreements over how much aid is necessary and concerns from some Republicans over rising deficits.

 Blistering Demand For Record Big 10Y Auction - The record refunding week's most watched auction was of course today's sale of a record amount of 10Y paper, and at some $38BN for sale, we do mean record: consider that in 1981 the 10Y auction was under $2BN, it is now... well, see for yourselves. So how did the auction go? Well, following the sharp back up in yields on Monday and Tuesday, despite the record large auction size we would not get another record low yield... although it was close. With the When Issued trading at 0.681%, the auction stopped through the WI by 0.4bps, at 0.677% which however was a little over 2bps above July's 0.653%. The Bid to Cover also dipped, printing at 2.41 vs 2.62 last month and below the 2.52 six auction average. The internals, however, were more solid with Indirects taking down 65.4%, up from 63.4% last month, and above the 61.3 recent average. And with Directs taking down 14.7%, just above the 13.2% recent average, Dealers were left with 19.8%. In short, a very strong auction despite the record size, one which took advantage of the big concession that opened up last week and sparked a surge in demand, and which we expect to resume printing record low yields next month and thereafter because the Fed can no longer afford even a modest jump in rates.

What’s in Trump’s Executive Actions on Coronavirus Aid—and What’s Not - President Trump signed four executive actions Saturday to provide additional jobless aid, suspend the collection of payroll taxes, avoid evictions and assist with student-loan payments. Mr. Trump made the moves as talks in Congress over a broad new coronavirus aid package remained deadlocked and are seen as potentially accelerating talks.  Mr. Trump said Saturday that the administration would roll out a $400 weekly payment, funded 75% by the federal government and 25% by states. It wasn’t clear if the states would go ahead and provide that share, given that many of them are facing budget shortfalls due to the coronavirus-sparked recession. “We’re looking at it right now to see whether we can do this,” Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, said on CNN Sunday. New York’s Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo rejected the plan as “just an impossibility,” saying the state’s 25% share would cost it $4 billion that it doesn’t have. An executive order signed by the president Saturday directs the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development departments to identify funds to provide temporary financial assistance to renters and homeowners who are struggling to meet their monthly rental or mortgage obligations during the pandemic. The order also directs HUD to take action to “promote the ability of renters and homeowners to avoid eviction or foreclosure.” It doesn’t reauthorize the eviction moratorium set in the Cares Act that expired at the end of July. That applied only to properties with government-backed mortgages, covering just one-third of renters. Housing experts say the best way to prevent a wave of evictions—and a domino effect of defaults and foreclosures by landlords—would be for Congress to enact a nationwide eviction moratorium and appropriate money for rental assistance. Mr. Trump directed the Treasury Department to defer the 6.2% Social Security tax on wages for employees making less than about $100,000 a year. That suspension would last from Sept. 1 through Dec. 31. If employers stop withholding those taxes, the move would deliver an increase in take-home pay just as Mr. Trump is running for re-election but also create a looming liability in 2021 because the taxes would still be due eventually. Mr. Trump said he would press Congress to turn the deferral into an actual tax cut. The tax code gives the Treasury secretary authority to delay tax filing and collection after presidentially declared disasters. The administration already used this authority to postpone a series of spring tax deadlines until July 15 and used it again Friday to delay some excise-tax collections. It is far from certain that many employers will stop withholding payroll taxes given the potential for future liability. The Cares Act gave most borrowers with federal student loans a six-month interruption of their monthly payments, interest-free. The law applies to roughly 35 million borrowerswhose loans are held by the federal government. It excludes about eight million borrowers whose loans are held by private lenders with a government guarantee, under a federal program that ended in 2010. The payment moratorium is set to expire Sept. 30. Saturday’s executive memorandum from Mr. Trump said the administration would extend the payment moratorium and zero interest until the end of the coronavirus crisis.

Trump’s Stimulus Orders Set Off Squabble – WSJ —Democrats called President Trump’s plan to bypass Congress and extend coronavirus economic relief insufficient and unconstitutional, but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defended the move and suggested efforts to block it could backfire politically.  Mr. Trump’s plan, made public on Saturday after lawmakers and the White House had failed to reach a deal on another aid package, calls for among other things funding $300 a week in special unemployment benefits, with an additional $100 coming from states. Democrats had wanted to extend the $600 weekly additional benefits that were first approved in March and that expired last month, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and others said the plan not only didn’t go far enough but had breached congressional spending authority. “Children are food insecure, families are at the risk of being evicted, the virus is moving like a freight train, even though the president has ignored and delayed and distorted what that is,” Mrs. Pelosi said on “Fox News Sunday.” But with the November election approaching, any move to block the payments could backfire, Mr. Mnuchin suggested on the same program, adding that the White House was within its rights to move unilaterally. “We’ve cleared with the Office of Legal Counsel all of these actions,” Mr. Mnuchin said. “If the Democrats want to challenge us in court and hold up unemployment benefits to those hardworking Americans that are out of a job because of Covid, they’re going to have a lot of explaining to do.”   Mr. Trump, a Republican, also issued on Saturday orders on payroll taxes, evictions and student-loan payments, issues that were all part of discussions on a broader aid package.A possible legal challenge was just one question surrounding the orders.Another was whether the states, strapped for cash because of the pandemic, would contribute the additional $100 in weekly benefits.  Democrats had wanted some $915 billion in state and local aid in their $3.5 trillion aid bill passed by the House in May. Republicans had offered $150 billion during negotiations. Many economists had credited the $600 in additional weekly jobless aid as helping to keep the economy afloat while millions of people are home after the pandemic and lockdowns. Some said the new relief measures would provide less of a boost to the economy.

Trump’s Executive Orders Sow Confusion and Illusions -By Pam Martens -- President Donald Trump has taken to governing from the 19^th Hole in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. On Saturday, speaking from the clubhouse of the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump announcedfour executive actions that he promised would “take care of, pretty much, this entire situation,” meaning economic relief for struggling workers who have lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic. But by the time the Sunday talk shows rolled around, it became clear that the executive orders and memorandum had been hastily cobbled together with gaping holes and obstacles to providing meaningful relief.  Instead of actually extending the $600 supplemental federal unemployment assistance that unemployed workers have been receiving weekly under the CARES Act that Congress passed in March, Trump’s Memorandum offers only the possibility of $400 in weekly assistance and directs FEMA to come up with $44 billion of Disaster Relief Funds from the Department of Homeland Security to fund the program. Unfortunately, the Disaster Relief Funds, under statute, require a state match of 25 percent. This means that states, many of which are in desperate financial shape themselves, would have to provide $100 of the $400 federal supplement.  Matthew Barakat of the Associated Press is reporting this morning that many state officials and governors are dubious about being able to afford to participate in the plan. The $600 federal supplement was needed because most states provide a miserly amount of state unemployment benefits (an average of $378 weekly). In the state of Florida, which has been heavily impacted by COVID-19, the maximum benefit is $275 weekly for just 12 weeks, or a cap of $3300. (Most states provide 26 weeks of state unemployment insurance, but for workers who lost their jobs during the major business shutdowns in March and haven’t been able to return to work, that will run out this month or next.) Florida’s $275 weekly benefit hasn’t increased in more than two decades, despite the cost of food and housing in Florida soaring over that period. Trump’s eviction relief Executive Order is far worse than his unemployment insurance quagmire. It does not order evictions to cease as a result of the pandemic. It simply directs that “The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development shall identify any and all available Federal funds to provide temporary financial assistance to renters and homeowners who, as a result of the financial hardships caused by COVID-19, are struggling to meet their monthly rental or mortgage obligations.” There is no specific language in the Executive Order on how this money will be allocated; what agency will distribute it; or how individuals can apply for the aid.

Trump grabs 'third rail' of politics with payroll tax pause -  President Trump’s pledge to “terminate” the payroll tax that funds Social Security defies the conventional wisdom of staying away from what’s known as the “third rail” of politics. Proposing a major reform to Social Security shortly before an election traditionally has been seen as the political equivalent of touching the highly electrified rail that powers subway cars. The last president to try, George W. Bush, made a similar move shortly after winning a convincing reelection in 2004, and he was stopped dead in his tracks. Bush’s ill-fated effort to reform Social Security energized dispirited Democrats and sapped political momentum from the start of his second term. Yet the danger of overhauling the funding stream for a program that in turn provides payments to seniors has not deterred Trump from risking support in key battleground states like Florida. Trump on Saturday, and again on Monday, said his goal is to get rid of the payroll tax altogether, raising the prospect that Social Security would be funded out of general fund revenues instead of having dedicated funding like it has for decades. “I signed directives to give a payroll tax holiday, with the understanding that after the election — on the assumption that it would be victorious for an administration that’s done a great job — we will be ending that tax. We’ll be terminating that tax,” Trump said Monday at the White House. The daring promise to scrap a tax that funds Social Security could have dire effects for Trump among older voters, who already prefer former Vice President Joe Biden by a substantial margin. “Biden was already doing better with seniors than any Democrat since before 2008 and this is game-changing,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “Seniors think overwhelmingly that politicians should just keep their hands off the [Social Security] trust fund,” she added, asserting that Trump “wants to break the trust fund.”

Employers Cast Wary Eye on Trump Payroll-Tax Deferral – WSJ —Employers considering President Trump’s plan to allow deferred payment of payroll taxes face a series of costs, uncertainties and headaches. The president wants employers to stop collecting the 6.2% levy that is the employee share of Social Security taxes for many workers, starting Sept. 1 and going through the end of the year. But his move, announced in a memo Saturday, doesn’t change how much tax employees and employers actually owe. Only Congress can do that. Employers’ biggest worry: If they stop withholding taxes without any guarantee that Congress will actually forgive any deferred payments, they could find themselves on the hook. That is a particular risk in cases where employees change jobs and employers can’t withhold more taxes from later paychecks to catch up on missed payments. “The Internal Revenue Service will come to that deep pocket” of employers to collect payroll taxes, said Marianna Dyson, a lawyer at Covington & Burling LLP in Washington who specializes in payroll taxes. “Liability is going to stick to the employer like flies to flypaper.” Employers and their lawyers are waiting for the Treasury Department and the IRS to issue formal rules to turn the president’s weekend statements and directives about the payroll-tax collection suspension into action. Those details will be crucial as companies decide whether and how to implement the plan, and many employers might not even bother if they have a choice. Treasury and IRS officials declined to comment Monday about the timing or content of the rules. Every day that passes without those rules will make it harder to make any changes by Sept. 1, the start date set by Mr. Trump. “This is going to be a pretty big programming lift, technology lift for us to do,” said Mike Trabold, director of compliance at Paychex Inc., which processes payrolls for 680,000 employers. Mr. Trump on Saturday ordered the Treasury Department to postpone payroll-tax deadlines for employees making up to about $104,000 in annualized wages. The administration has authority to act under a law that lets the Treasury Secretary postpone tax deadlines after a presidentially declared disaster. It is the same law the government used to delay the April 15 tax-filing deadline to mid-July.

Funding for $300-a-Week Unemployment Benefits Could Run Out in Six Weeks – WSJ - An extra $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits is likely to take a couple of weeks to reach workers and funding could be exhausted a month and a half later, a senior Labor Department official said. The official said states should be able to begin delivering the payments after applying for funding with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and making technical changes to systems to distribute the money. Based on the current number of unemployment benefit recipients, the official said the $44 billion in funds allocated for the enhanced benefits could be spent in five or six weeks, if all states participate. That time line would put the benefits on pace to expire sooner than the December termination set in Saturday’s executive action by President Trump. More than 30 million workers were receiving some form of unemployment benefits in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department said last week. State unemployment systems will need to make changes to their technology to start sending out the extra jobless benefits included in the executive action that President Trump signed, the Labor Department official said. The official expected the technological changes to be less onerous than when states had to roll out new federal programs for expanded unemployment benefits in March, including the $600-a-week in benefits that expired at the end of July. Some states have said that sending out the additional aid would be a complicated task. “These are new programs that would have to be set up at enormous costs,” New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy said Monday. Mr. Trump’s executive action called for a federally funded $300 a week in enhanced unemployment benefits for workers laid off during the coronavirus pandemic. Mr. Trump asked states to provide another $100 a week. States aren’t required to extend either of the payments to workers. The payments would replace the $600 payments, which resulted in 68% of unemployed workers receiving more in benefits than they did working, researchers at the University of Chicago found. The Labor Department official said the $300 supplemental unemployment payments would give about 50% of workers at least the same amount of money through benefits that they earned while working. Raising the total to $400 with additional state funds would bring that total to about two-thirds of workers.The outsize hit reflects the timing and duration of the U.K.’s nationwide lockdown. Britain locked down late March, weeks after comparable European countries, and only gradually began easing restrictions late May. That meant the economy was shut throughout most of the second quarter, whereas Germany and other neighbors had already begun to reopen. Another factor is the makeup of its economy. Compared with its peers, a larger share of the U.K. economy is devoted to activities that require close personal contact, which has been especially hit by measures to halt the spread of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. The BOE calculates that spending on such activities, such as going to the cinema or theater, eating out or attending live sporting events, represents around 13% of total output in Britain, compared with around 11% in the U.S. and 10% in the euro area. Data Wednesday showed household spending shrank 23.1% in the second quarter compared with the first, while business investment fell by almost a third. Manufacturing and services output both fell by a fifth as factories idled and businesses closed.

Trump, Democrats Open to Restarting Coronavirus Talks Despite Stalemate – WSJ - Trump administration officials and Democratic leaders urged each other to return to the negotiating table to craft a broad coronavirus package after President Trump issued executive actions on jobless aid and other relief over the weekend. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he believed states could start rolling out additional federal unemployment payments within two weeks, as officials made clear that states could provide $300 a week in federal funds for unemployed workers without adding any of their own funds. The initial plan released Saturday had envisioned a total weekly payment of $400, with states contributing $100. “We don’t have to do that,” Mr. Trump said at a news briefing, referring to the state funding. “So we’ll see what it is, depends on the individual states,” he said. The executive actions were designed to step up pressure on Democrats, but they also underscored the limits of the White House’s powers over spending, which is controlled by Congress. Administration officials have accused congressional Democrats led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) of making unreasonable demands in negotiations for the next round of relief. Republicans have expressed concerns about another round of spending to address the coronavirus crisis, citing deficit concerns. “Any time they want to meet, they’re willing to negotiate, have a new proposal, we’re more than happy to meet,” Mr. Mnuchin said. Democrats, who have backed $3.5 trillion in new spending, said that Mr. Trump acted illegally, breaching congressional spending authority with the executive orders, and that his plan wouldn’t provide enough relief to the unemployed. They say Republicans are aiming too low with their $1 trillion aid package, saying it doesn’t fully address the economic pain of workers, businesses or states during the pandemic.

 Pelosi: COVID talks will resume when GOP offers $2T -Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Thursday that the high-stakes talks between the White House and Democrats on coronavirus relief will resume only when Republicans come to the table with at least $2 trillion. "When they're ready to do that, we'll sit down," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol. The comments foreshadow a rocky road ahead as the parties haggle over a fifth round of emergency relief designed to address the health needs and economic devastation caused by the pandemic, which has hit the United States harder than any other country. Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) had huddled with the White House negotiators — Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and chief of staff Mark Meadows — for a full two weeks when the talks broke down last Friday. Quite aside from specific policy prescriptions, the sides have not yet agreed to the overall size of the next aid package. Pelosi and House Democrats had passed a $3.4 trillion relief bill in May, while Senate Republicans responded late last month with a $1.1 trillion counterproposal. The Democrats last week had offered to meet in the middle — somewhere in the $2 trillion range — but the Republicans refused the offer, ending the talks indefinitely. Seeking a breakthrough, Mnuchin and Pelosi spoke by phone on Wednesday, but the conversation did nothing to break the stalemate. Indeed, Pelosi said she'd made the same $2 trillion offer, and Mnuchin had responded with the same rejection. Mnuchin issued a statement afterward saying Pelosi's account was "not an accurate reflection" of the conversation. "She made clear that she was unwilling to meet to continue negotiations unless we agreed in advance to her proposal, costing at least $2 trillion," Mnuchin said, adding that the Democrats "have no interest in negotiating." Pelosi on Thursday wondered where the inaccuracy lay, noting that both sides were clear that the disagreement centered on the Democrats' $2 trillion demand. "We said, '$2 trillion and then we can sit down at the table.' Then he said, 'That's not what she said. She said $2 trillion or we can't sit down at the table,'" Pelosi said. "Didn't you think that that was strange?" Asked when she might speak with Mnuchin again, Pelosi amplified her numerical requirement. "I don't know. When they come in with $2 trillion," she said. "But we're not sitting down at the table to validate what [they] have proposed, because it does not meet the needs of the American people."

Millions of workers are relying on unemployment insurance benefits that are being stalled and slashed -EPI Blog - Last week 1.3 million workers applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. More specifically, 832,000 applied for regular state unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted), and 489,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). Some headlines this morning are saying there were 963,000 UI claims last week, but that’s not the right number to use. Instead, our measure includes PUA, the federal program that is supporting millions of workers who are not eligible for regular UI, such as the self-employed. We also use not seasonally adjusted data, because the way Department of Labor (DOL) does seasonal adjustments (which is useful in normal times) distorts the data right now.Astonishingly high numbers of workers continue to claim UI, and we are still 12.9 million jobs short of February employment levels. And yet, Senate Republicans allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits—the most effective economic policy crisis response so far—to expire.In an unserious move of political theater, the Trump administration has proposed starting up an entirely new system of restoring wages to laid-off workers through executive order (EO). But even in their EO wishlist, the Trump administration would slash the federal contribution to enhanced unemployment benefits in half, to $300. This inaction and ongoing uncertainty is causing significant economic pain for workers who have lost their job during the pandemic and their families. It also causes an administrative hassle for state agencies that have already struggled immensely to process the huge number of claims early in the pandemic and implement the new UI protections in the CARES Act. Since the states with the least stable UI systems also have the highest populations of Black and Latinx people, existing inequalities will likely deepen even further by both the cutoff of supplementary benefits and the increased chaos introduced by having presidential EOs pretend to stand in for the legislative action that is needed. Cutting UI benefits is directly harmful not just to the individual workers who rely on them, but to the economy as a whole. The additional $600 in benefits allowed for a large amount of spending, sustaining these workers’ effective demand for goods and services even in the face of joblessness. If the Trump administration gets their way and these benefits are cut in half, it would cause such a large drop in spending that it would cost us2.6 million jobs over the next year.

 After White House, Congress cut aid to unemployed, evictions and food lines spread across the US - Less than two weeks after the White House and congressional Democrats allowed the $600 weekly federal unemployment supplement to expire, slashing the income of some 30 million unemployed workers by 60-80 percent, evictions are already on the rise and food lines are growing by leaps and bounds across the United States.In signing four executive actions on Saturday, President Donald Trump claimed that he had intervened to temporarily resume the unemployment benefit, although at a sharply reduced rate of $300-$400. He also said his unilateral action, bypassing Congress, would prevent a wave of evictions following the expiration of a partial moratorium at the end of July.But it will be weeks or even months before jobless workers receive any of the promised money. Moreover, Trump’s executive memorandum on rent failed to extend the expired ban on evictions or provide any rental assistance, setting the stage for a rapid growth in the ranks of the homeless.A senior White House official confirmed to CBS News on Tuesday that there are currently no plans for congressional Democratic leaders, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, and White House negotiators, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and White Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, to meet this week to discuss a fifth coronavirus relief bill. In fact, Meadows has already left Washington DC “for an unspecified amount of time,” according to a Washington Post report Tuesday. Under Trump’s legally dubious executive orders, US states already slashing budgets and furloughing workers in an attempt to make up for massive deficits incurred as a result of the pandemic are being asked to contribute an additional $100 a week on top of whatever meager state unemployment benefit is being paid out. The federal government would then add a further $300 a week. In a letter released Monday in response to Trump’s executive actions, the National Governors Association registered its “concern” over “the significant administrative burdens and costs this latest action would place on the states.” The letter requests that Congress and the administration “get back to the negotiating table and come up with a workable solution.” Meanwhile, early data from across the country indicate that evictions have already begun en masse. In Florida, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis postured as a protector of renters when he announced he was extending the state moratorium on evictions for a month. However, the text of the order bars only “final actions” in eviction proceedings, and only if the tenant can prove that nonpayment of rent is due to the coronavirus.

America Is About To Feel Like A 3rd World Nation - Ian Welsh -I spent a good chunk of my childhood in third world countries. Most of it was in Bangladesh, then arguably the poorest country in the world, but I visited or lived in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Nepal and India, among others. There’s a feel to the third world one becomes familiar with: beggars, infrastructure that doesn’t really work, people doing terrible menial jobs. There’s the huge disparity between the wealthy and everyone else, or even those who have managed to attach themselves in a semi-dignified way to the wealthy. Cruelty is routine and unremarked. Indian police officers routinely beat people as punishment (similar to American ones). Servants are treated terribly, and in fact the locals routinely treated the servants far worse than foreigners. America’s about to make a double digit percentage of its population homeless. Something like 20 to 30%, or more of American small businesses have or will shut down by the end of the pandemic. The jobs won’t all come back and those that do will pay worse and feature worse treatment than the ones before (which were mostly not well paid and featured routine meanness.) We’re talking about 30 million to 60 million homeless. These are staggering numbers. The United States will feel third world. Oh, parts already did, when I landed in Miami airport the first time I immediately thought “third world”. Relatively prosperous third world, but third world. Those places will be worse. Of course, for many, little will change. They’ll keep their jobs, they’ll be fine. I recently witnessed a discussion of infosec jobs, talking about how for a person with a degree and a couple certification $120,000 was a lowball. There will still be good jobs, and you’ll still be able to lose everything in a few months if you become seriously ill. But when those people who are hanging on go out in the streets, they’ll see, even more than now, the fate that awaits them if they slip. So much of American meanness, and the culture is mean in the details of its daily life, comes from this fear. Because it is so easy to slip into the underclass, even if one “does everything right”, Americans are scared, even terrified, all the time. They suppress it with massive amounts of drugs (most of them legal), and most deny it, but the fear drives the cruelty.

Tech, Financial Firms Eye Ways to Save TikTok’s U.S. Operations From Ban – WSJ - Several investment and technology firms are exploring a potential deal for the U.S. operations of TikTok, which is facing a Trump administration ban, but they each would have to surmount hurdles at least as high as the Chinese social-media platform’s main suitor, Microsoft Corp. Twitter Inc. has had preliminary talks about a potential combination with TikTok in the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday. It is unclear whether Twitter will pursue a deal, which would face significant challenges and almost certainly need help from other investors, given Twitter’s size. TikTok’s parent, Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd., has been scrambling to find a way to keep its popular video-sharing service alive in the U.S. after the Trump administration declared the app a national security threat because of its Chinese ownership. Several investment firms with ties to Twitter or ByteDance also could play a role in any transaction involving Twitter or Microsoft, people familiar with the talks say. Among them is venture-capital giant Sequoia Capital, whose China-based affiliate first invested in Bytedance in 2014. Today Sequoia funds hold just over 10%, according to a person familiar with the investment, a stake worth more than $10 billion based on recent secondary trades of Bytedance shares. At that value, the investment would rank among the most successful venture capital deals of all time. Doug Leone, Sequoia’s global managing partner, in recent weeks has been pressing contacts in the administration, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and senior White House adviser Jared Kushner, to craft a solution that would enable TikTok to keep operating in the U.S., according to people familiar with those discussions. Mr. Leone has been among the few Silicon Valley leaders who openly back Donald Trump, and has contributed to his reelection campaign.

China imposes sanctions on U.S. lawmakers over Hong Kong (Reuters) - China imposed sanctions on 11 U.S. citizens including lawmakers from President Donald Trump Republican Party on Monday in response to Washington’s imposition of sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese officials accused of curtailing political freedoms in the former British colony. Those targeted were six Republican lawmakers - Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Pat Toomey and Representative Chris Smith - as well as individuals at non-profit and rights groups. “In response to that wrong U.S. behaviour, China has decided to impose sanctions on individuals who have behaved egregiously on Hong Kong-related issues,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a press briefing on Monday. He did not specify what the sanctions entail. White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said the Chinese sanctions were “symbolic and ineffectual”, but declined to say if the U.S. government would respond. “A growing number of nations around the globe are demanding real action from Beijing”, she told reporters, citing widespread concerns about the national security law imposed on Hong Kong. “This President has stood strongly against China and will continue to do so.” Relations between the world’s two largest economies have deteriorated sharply in recent months over issues ranging from trade, to Hong Kong and China’s handling of the novel coronavirus. Trump has made tough talk against China a feature of his campaign for re-election. China’s sanctions are the latest in a tit-for-tat round of measures between Beijing and Washington over accusations of rights abuses and interference. The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam and the city’s current and former police chiefs. The U.S. lawmakers targeted by China on Monday have been among vocal critics of a new national security law that Beijing imposed on Hong Kong in late June.

 The TPP Is Dead! Long Live the TPP!  - The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement should be dead and buried after President Trump announced US withdrawal immediately after his inauguration in January 2017. After all, most major US presidential candidates in the last election, including Hillary Clinton, had opposed the TPP. However, the Japanese, Australian and Singaporean governments have kept the TPP alive, first by mooting TPP11, i.e., minus the USA, later pretentiously relabelled the Comprehensive and Progressive TPP (CPTPP), with the hope that the US will rejoin later.Other governments have remained ‘on board’ for various reasons, mainly foreign policy considerations, rather than with serious expectations of economic benefits, while ignoring the dangers and risks.Last week, yet another ministerial meeting reiterated pious claims of steady progress as CPTPP boosters try to remain relevant despite the fast declining appetite for regional trade deals.The CPTPP did not even get rid of the most onerous TPP provisions, but only suspended some intellectual property (IP) and other provisions, mainly of interest to the USA. These can easily be reincluded to bring the USA back in after the November election. However, other onerous aspects, such as investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions, remain. In the wake of Covid-19, lawyers are already advising foreign investors how to use extraordinary coping measures to sue governments, which will cost them even if they win. If re-elected, the Trump administration’s opposition to ISDS can easily be accommodated to bring the US back on board as it seeks new measures to isolate and weaken China. Biden will also revive a TPP avatar, having supported it before as Obama’s loyal Vice-President. Rather than promoting trade, the TPP really sought more transnational corporation (TNC)-friendly rules. After all, the 6350-page deal had been negotiated by various working groups including hundreds of major US corporate representatives. But by involving lobbyists, US negotiators may well have locked themselves into a deal of little interest to most other businesses.

 Israel and the United Arab Emirates reach historic deal to normalize relations, with Trump's help - (Reuters) - Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached a historic deal on Thursday that will lead to a full normalization of diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern nations in an agreement that U.S. President Donald Trump helped broker. Under the agreement, Israel has agreed to suspend applying sovereignty to areas of the West Bank that it has been discussing annexing, senior White House officials told Reuters. The deal was the product of lengthy discussions between Israel, the UAE and the United States that accelerated recently, White House officials said. The agreement was sealed in a phone call on Thursday between Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed. “HUGE breakthrough today! Historic Peace Agreement between our two GREAT friends, Israel and the United Arab Emirates,” Trump wrote on Twitter. In the White House Oval Office, Trump said discussions between the two leaders had sometimes been tense. He said similar deals are being discussed with other countries in the region. A signing ceremony including delegations from Israel and the United Arab Emirates will be held at the White House in the coming weeks, Trump added. “Everybody said this would be impossible,” Trump said. “After 49 years, Israel and the United Arab Emirates will fully normalize their diplomatic relations. They exchange embassies and ambassadors and begin cooperation across the border.” The U.S. officials described the agreement, to be known as the Abraham Accords, as the first of its kind since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty in 1994. It also gives Trump a foreign policy success as he seeks re-election on Nov. 3.

National security adviser says Trump 'should be a front-runner for the Nobel Peace Prize' -- White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien on Thursday called for President Trump to be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his role in a diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). O'Brien made the case for his boss to get the prestigious honor, which the president himself has previously suggested he deserves, during a White House press briefing. "It’s really remarkable I think when you step back and take a look at what this president has done on the peace front," O'Brien said. "And it wouldn’t surprise me — it’ll take some time in this environment — but it wouldn’t surprise me if the president is eventually nominated for a Nobel Prize for this. Today’s work is an example of why he would be rightly considered and should be a front-runner for the Nobel Peace Prize." O'Brien showered praise on Trump for his role in brokering the normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel. He noted that one of Trump's books was titled "The Art of the Deal" but that he will be remembered "for being a great peacemaker." The national security adviser stumping for Trump to get Nobel consideration is certain to please the president, who last September said during the United Nations General Assembly that he would be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "if they gave it out fairly." He has previously suggested his negotiations with North Korea, which have yet to yield any formal agreement on denuclearization, would warrant recognition. Pakistani reporters told Trump at the U.N. last year that he would be worthy of the honor if he mediated the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India.

Don’t be hoodwinked by Trump’s UAE-Israel ‘peace deal’ – “HUGE breakthrough today,” crowed Donald Trump on twitter as he announced the new peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The deal makes the UAE the first Gulf Arab state and the third Arab nation, after Egypt and Jordan, to have diplomatic ties with Israel. But the new Israel-UAE partnership should fool no one. Though it will supposedly stave off Israeli annexation of the West Bank and encourage tourism and trade between both countries, in reality, it is nothing more than a scheme to give an Arab stamp of approval to Israel’s status quo of land theft, home demolitions, arbitrary extrajudicial killings, apartheid laws, and other abuses of Palestinian rights.  The deal should be seen in the context of over three years of Trump administration policies that have tightened Israel’s grip on the Palestinians: moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, and creating a so-called peace plan with no Palestinian participation or input. While no U.S. administration has successfully brokered a resolution to Israel’s now 53-year-long occupation, the Trump years have been especially detrimental to the Palestinian cause. Palestinian leader Hanan Ashrawi wrote on Twitter that with this deal, “Israel got rewarded for not declaring openly what it’s been doing to Palestine illegally & persistently since the beginning of the occupation.” Indeed, with Donald Trump at the helm and son-in-law Jared Kushner as the primary strategist, even concessions for Palestinians have been done away with. To add insult to injury, while the deal had been couched in terms of a commitment by Israel to suspend annexation of Palestinian territories, in his Israeli press conference announcing the deal, Netanyahu said annexation was “still on the table” and that it was something he is “committed to.”  Among the most brutal aspects of this period for Palestinians have been the loss of support for their cause in neighboring Arab states. The Arab political party in Israel, Balad, said that by signing this pact, “the UAE has officially joined Israel against Palestine, and placed itself in the camp of the enemies of the Palestinian people.”

US Supreme Court defends deadly jail conditions in California - In a 5–4 vote last week, the US Supreme Court stayed an injunction originally granted on May 26 on the basis of a class-action lawsuit brought by over 3,000 inmates to protect them against COVID-19 in the pandemic. The suit sought to force Sheriff Don Barnes and Orange County, California, to take urgent steps to remedy conditions in Orange County jails, a four-facility penitentiary complex. The Supreme Court ruling reflects the contempt of the ruling class for constitutional rights and its indifference for human life. The Ahlman v. Barnes complaint granted injunction in May alleged various causes of action, such as unconstitutional conditions of confinement and unconstitutional punishment in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment and, where applicable, in violation of the Eighth Amendment to the US Constitution. It also alleged discrimination on the basis of disability in violation of Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act and of Section 504 of the rehabilitation Act. The District Court concluded that the risk of harm in the jail was “undeniably high.” The lawsuit sought the immediate release of vulnerable and disabled people in jail, plus the demand to expand social distancing, care, testing and personal protective equipment (PPE). It also sought additional releases to bring the jail population to a level that is compatible with public health experts’ recommendations. At the time of this writing, the Orange County Sheriff’s Department alleges that all inmates and staff are tested for the coronavirus. This claim is contradicted by facts presented in the complaint, as well as inmates’ reports, taken into account by the District and Appeals’ courts, that the facility was not testing all suspected cases and that at least one symptomatic inmate was left in areas with inmates displaying no symptoms. The Orange County jails complex has run 3,133 tests, with 489 positive results. In Ahlman v. Barnes, the plaintiff alleged that limits in the jail’s design and capacity preclude full social distancing, with beds less than six feet apart. Symptomatic inmates mingle in common areas. Cleaning supplies are insufficient to disinfect living areas, with several cases of supplies not received for days. Moreover, on many occasions, inmates were not tested after exposure to an infected individual. Remarkably, the original injunction specifically focused on deliberate indifference on the part of the defendant, who was alleged to have made an intentional decision with respect to the conditions that put inmates at substantial risk of suffering serious harm, evinced by the high number of confirmed infections. The injunction agreed that the defendant was not even complying meaningfully with the meek Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, which focus on prevention and management and don’t even contemplate a situation where hundreds within the inmate population have indeed been infected.

COVID-19 and the California Prison Crisis: 24th San Quentin Inmate Dies Last Friday - The 24th inmate from San Quentin State Prison died Friday from COVID-19 complications, part of the unfolding national prison apocalypse.San Quentin has the largest cluster of COVID-19 cases in the country, with a third of inmates and staff members -about 2500 people – testing positive.As reported by The Mercury News:The inmate is the 52nd in the state prison system to die from complications of the virus, according to the state’s tracker. The prisons have confirmed 8,665 cases of the virus in the system, including 1,007 over the past two weeks.The initial outbreak at San Quentin seems to be a direct consequence of California’s prisoner transfer policy, according to The Guardian, San Quentin faces California’s deadliest prison outbreak after latest Covid fatalities:The outbreak at San Quentin began after a late-May transfer of 121 people whom officials deemed to be at high risk of contracting and becoming seriously ill from Covid-19, from the California Institution for Men in Chino. Before the transfer San Quentin had zero positive cases; within four weeks of the move, it had reached almost 1,200 cases.Let me turn over the floor to Rahsaan Thomas, a San Quentin inmate, writing in Inside, I’ve served 19 years in San Quentin prison and I just got diagnosed with COVID-19. Where is the justice?:The corrections officers aren’t good at telling us whether we’re positive. For some people, the only hint has been when an officer keys your door, meaning you’re forced to stay in your cell while everyone else goes to chow. When they’re done, you pick up your tray or sack lunch with everyone else who tested positive. They don’t clean the railings or anything between groups of people with positive cases and negative cases. Everyone mingles in the same space, one after the other.Everyone who lives in North Block will have COVID-19 sooner or later. It’s up to the disease whether we live or die because the system won’t release people who committed violent crimes, and that’s almost all of us in the cell blocks.

Lebanon’s Leaders Resign over deaths of 200, but Trump refuses Accountability for 163,462 Deaths  - On Monday, the prime minister of Lebanon and his entire cabinet resigned en masse, reports Bassem Mroue at the Associated Press. Last week an enormous explosion destroyed Beirut’s port and part of the city, killing over 200 persons and wounding thousands, and leaving 300,000 homeless. The explosion came about after volatile ammonium nitrate was stored at the port carelessly for seven years, despite expert warnings that it could flatten the city. Government corruption and neglect were at the root of the tragedy. Hassan Diab, a former engineering professor at the American University in Beirut and former minister of education, became prime minister in December after massive protests ousted his predecessor, Saad Hariri.  When he resigned, he said of the old political class of warlords and elite sectarian families, “They should have been ashamed of themselves because their corruption is what has led to this disaster that had been hidden for seven years. I have discovered that corruption is bigger than the state and that the state is paralyzed by this clique and cannot confront it or get rid of it.” There is a difference between a parliamentary system and a presidential one, and in the latter resignations over policy failures are rare. But as an American I can’t help but be struck that Diab and his colleagues resigned over the deaths of some 200 Lebanese, while the death toll from COVID-19 in the US, according to Johns Hopkins, has reached 163,462. Trump and his cabinet cannot be blamed for all of those deaths. They are, however, responsible for a hefty chunk of them, often estimated at 40 percent. That percentage is based on Trump’s reluctance to initiate a lockdown in late February, waiting instead until mid-March. But since then there have been many more missteps, and new information has surfaced. It turns out that we didn’t have a national response to the pandemic in part because Jared Kushner concluded that it would mainly hit states that usually vote Democratic, like New York. We still don’t have a nationally backed system of rapid testing, and we don’t have nearly enough contact tracers. There is in short no Federal policy or significant Federal aid and coordination to country health departments. Then, Trump rushed the country to reopen on Memorial Day, before the curve had been flattened. He persuaded his lackeys, who hope to succeed him, like Florida governor Ron DeSantis, to open too early. He bullied and threatened governors like Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, who would not go along, and in the latter case encouraged the occupation of the State House by armed right wing Trumpies. He has politicized wearing masks, which reduce transmission by 80%, and discouraged people from wearing them. He has held large rallies in Tulsa and elsewhere, which certainly spread the disease. So by now I think more than 40% of the deaths can be laid at Trump’s doorstep. But even if we say it is only 40%, that would be over 65,000 Americans that Trump killed. On September 11, al-Qaeda killed almost 3,000 Americans and our country jumped into a 20-year global war. But Trump by his peculiar combination of narcissism, contrarianism, irrationality, and political guile, has polished off more Americans than died in the entire Vietnam War. So if he were even as upright as the corrupt and venal Lebanese government, he would resign. But poor little Lebanon is a piker when it comes to corruption compared to Trump.

 Exclusive: Trump administration asks court to dismiss Big Tech's challenge to social media executive order - (Reuters) - The Trump administration has filed a motion asking a court to dismiss a lawsuit against the president’s executive order targeting social media companies, calling it a “profound misunderstanding,” according to a copy of the motion seen by Reuters. The lawsuit was brought in June by the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT), a Washington-based tech group funded by Facebook Inc, Alphabet Inc’s Google and Twitter Inc. It marked the first major legal test of President Donald Trump’s directive. Trump issued an executive order in May against social media companies in an attempt to regulate platforms where he has been criticized, just days after Twitter took the rare step of fact-checking one of his tweets about mail-in voting. Trump threatened to scrap or weaken a law known as Section 230, which protects internet companies from litigation over content posted by users. The lawsuit by CDT argued Trump’s social media executive order violates the First Amendment rights of social media companies, will chill future online speech and reduce the ability of Americans to speak freely online. The administration argues that the executive order only directs government agencies, and not private companies, to act. “The EO challenged here imposes no obligations on any private party,” said the motion filed by the Department of Justice in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, which was seen by Reuters. “It directs executive officials to take steps that could lead various agencies to examine ... allegations that large social media online platforms have displayed political bias in moderating content,” the motion said.

Researchers discovered significant vulnerability in Amazon's Alexa -- Researchers at cybersecurity provider Check Point uncovered a flaw in Amazon’s Alexa virtual assistant that left owner's personal information vulnerable before it was patched in June. The researchers detailed the vulnerability in a report released Thursday, saying potential hackers could have hijacked the voice assistant devices using malicious Amazon links. Once those links were clicked, hackers would be able to install or remove "Skills" — essentially apps — from Alexa devices. They would also be able to access the user’s voice history with their device as well as personal information as sensitive as banking data and home addresses. Check Point presented the flaw to Amazon this past June, and the company subsequently fixed the security issues. The online retail giant did not immediately return a request for comment from The Hill. Experts have long warned about security vulnerabilities present in the internet-enabled devices that are now commonplace in many American homes. More than 200 million Alexa-enabled devices were sold by the end of 2019, and a vulnerability in those devices could pose serious privacy risks. “Smart speakers and virtual assistants are so commonplace that it’s easy to overlook just how much personal data they hold, and their role in controlling other smart devices in our homes,” Oded Vanunu, head of products vulnerabilities research at Check Point, said in a statement. Black women with natural hairstyles are more likely to be rated as... Coronavirus cases may have been spreading in Wuhan and Seattle weeks... “But hackers see them as entry points into peoples’ lives, giving them the opportunity to access data, eavesdrop on conversations or conduct other malicious actions without the owner being aware.”

Trump’s war on the Postal Service helps corporate rivals at the expense of working families -- EPI Blog -Key takeaways:

• Postal workers are twice as likely to be military veterans as non-postal workers, because veterans benefit from preferential hiring in federal jobs and many have skills sought by the Postal Service. One in five postal workers is Black, nearly double Black workers’ share of the non-postal workforce.
• Postmaster Louis DeJoy’s recent service cuts, such as eliminating overtime and late trips, leaving mail to be delivered the next day, could harm the integrity of the November elections, which will rely heavily on mail voting.
• Rival private services like FedEx and UPS will likely gain customers from these cuts, which affect service. The beneficiaries of DeJoy’s actions will likely include low-wage “worksharing” companies that do work outsourced by the Postal Service, such as presorting and transporting bulk mail closer to its destination.
• Whereas federal law requires federal contractors in the construction and related industries to pay workers the prevailing wage—usually the area’s union wage— nothing prevents the Postal Service from contracting with companies whose only competitive advantage is paying low wages—often as a result of union busting.
• Since the Postal Service is required to rebate the full cost savings from outsourcing to the companies doing the work, “worksharing” doesn’t even benefit the Postal Service–but workers definitely lose out.

On June 15, Trump replaced appointed Louis DeJoy, a North Carolina business man and Republican fundraiser as the new Postmaster General. DeJoy has wasted no time in ordering major changes to how the United States Postal Service operates. Many have noted that the service cuts he has implemented , such as eliminating overtime and late trips, leaving mail to be delivered the next day, could harm the integrity of the November elections, which will rely heavily on mail voting, due to the pandemic. The slowdown also seems aimed at pleasing President Trump, who makes no secret of his dislike of the Postal Service, which he believes is undercharging Amazon for deliveries. Trump has also lashed out at the Washington Post, owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, for its news coverage of his administration. DeJoy, of course, denies that he’s deliberately sabotaging the Postal Service at the behest of the president, claiming service cuts are necessary to keep the Postal Service afloat. Though social distancing measures have boosted online orders during the pandemic, the crisis has reduced the volume of paper mail, which still accounts for about two-thirds of Postal Service revenues. Since the Postal Service is self-funded and has high fixed costs associated with daily delivery and maintaining post offices, it’s an obvious candidate for the same pandemic relief offered to airlines and other businesses affected by the suspension of much economic activity. But the president and Republican-controlled Senate have resisted helping the Postal Service, not just refusing to agree to relief funds included in a House-passed bill, but even holding hostage a loan to the Postal Service in the CARES Act that was signed into law by the president.

Trump Admits He Opposes Funding For Postal Service To Block More Voting By Mail -While President Trump has long railed against mail-in voting, falsely claiming it leads to rampant fraud, he appeared to confirm Thursday morning that he opposes Democrats' proposed boost in funding for the U.S. Postal Service because he wants to make it harder to expand voting by mail. Trump gave that explanation during an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business Network after she asked why the White House and congressional Democrats are still miles apart on approving a new stimulus deal.Trump said one major factor is the Democrats' push for an injection of funds into the U.S. Postal Service to expand voting by mail. Continued the president: "They want $25 billion for the post office. Now, they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots. Now, in the meantime, they aren't getting there. But if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail-in voting because they're not equipped to have it." Eight states are mailing ballots to all active voters this fall, including six that have been doing so for years, but most states are not conducting what Trump calls universal mail-in voting.Continued Trump: "If we don't make a deal, that means they don't get the money. That means they can't have universal mail-in voting. They just can't have it."Experts have estimated that as many as 70% of votes could be cast by mail in this election cycle because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. That has raised questions about the long-beleaguered Postal Service, which was losing money well before the COVID-19 disaster and has been put into an even more difficult position. Although Trump asserted in his interview with Fox that there's "nothing wrong with getting out and voting," citing people who voted during the first and second world wars, health experts say that voting by mail could reduce voters' exposure and spread of the coronavirus.

House Democrats Introduce Urgent Bill to End ‘Deliberate Sabotage’ of Postal Service by Postmaster General - Declaring that Congress must act swiftly to “stop the Trump administration’s deliberate sabotage” of the U.S. Postal Service ahead of the November elections, House Democrats on Wednesday unveiled legislation that would reverse Postmaster General Louis DeJoy’s disruptive new policiesand prevent additional changes at the agency until the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.Sponsored by House Oversight Committee Chairwoman Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), theDelivering for America Act (pdf) would bar USPS leadership from implementing or approving “any change to the operations or the level of service provided by the Postal Service from those in effect on January 1, 2020, that would impede prompt reliable, and efficient services.”Specifically, the legislation would prohibit:

• Any change in the nature of postal services which will generally affect service on a nationwide or substantially nationwide basis;
• Any revision of service standards;
• Any closure or consolidation any post office or reduction of facility hours;
• Any prohibition on payments of overtime pay to Postal Service officers or employees;
• Any change that would prevent the Postal Service from meeting its service standards or cause a decline in measurements of performance relative to those service standards;
• Any change that would have the effect of delaying mail, allowing for the non-delivery of mail to a delivery route, or increasing the volume of undelivered mail.

“Our Postal Service should not become an instrument of partisan politics, but instead must be protected as a neutral, independent entity that focuses on one thing and one thing only—delivering the mail,” Maloney said in a statement. “Millions of people rely on the Postal Service every day to communicate, to access critical medications, and to vote.”“At this juncture in our nation’s history, when the number of Americans voting by mail for this presidential election is expected to more than double from the last, Congress must protect the right of all eligible citizens to have their vote counted,” Maloney added. “A once-in-a-century pandemic is no time to enact changes that threaten service reliability and transparency.”Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a House Oversight Committee member and co-sponsor of the new bill, tweeted that “Congress must stop the Trump administration’s deliberate sabotage to disrupt mail service in the leadup to November elections.”During talks with the Trump administration over a broad Covid-19 relief package, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) demanded the reversal of DeJoy’s policies barring overtime and prohibiting postal workers from sorting mail ahead of their morning deliveries.But the relief negotiations collapsed last week, leaving the postmaster general’s policies in place and the USPS without desperately needed emergency funding.

Pull Back the Curtain on Efforts to Kill the U.S. Postal Service and Out Pops Koch Money -Pam Martens -Since May, the nonprofit group funded with Koch’s fossil fuels money, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), has been mobilizing to defeat the House stimulus bill known as the HEROES Act. In a letter sent to members of Congress, AFP Chief Government Affairs Officer Brent Gardner wrote that AFP wants to see the bill killed and specifically mentions it does not want to see a bailout of the Postal Service. Today, Aaron Gordon at Vice is reporting that he’s gotten his hands on internal documents from the Postal Service which show that orders have come down from above to destroy approximately 500 mail sorting machines – which cost millions of dollars. Witnesses have told Gordon that they’ve seen the machines “destroyed or thrown in the dumpster.” Gordon’s latest report follows yesterday’s news that mail service has been slowed down in multiple parts of the country.The order to destroy critical equipment comes at a time when President Trump has launched his own campaign against millions of Americans being able to mail their ballots for the November 3 presidential election, saying there will be massive fraud if ballots are mailed. No evidence has emerged to support that assertion. Democrats see the President’s efforts as an attempt to disenfranchise voters because the President is trailing presidential candidate Joe Biden significantly in the polls.The changes at the Postal Service come after a major Trump donor, Louis DeJoy, became the Postmaster General in June. According to NPR, “DeJoy has contributed more than $1.2 million to the Trump Victory Fund, and millions more to Republican Party organizations and candidates, according to Federal Election Commission records.” Gordon’s latest bombshell at Vice comes on the heels of another outstanding piece of journalism in July by Lisa Graves of True North Research for In the Public Interest.Graves traces the long history of Charles Koch and his now deceased brother, David, to privatize the U.S. Postal Service and the insidious means that were used to try to bring that to fruition.  Privatizing the Postal Service was clearly on Koch’s wish list for the Trump administration but other mandates took precedence.  To quote Senator Bernie Sanders, “The agenda of the Koch brothers is to repeal every major piece of legislation that has been signed into law over the past 80 years that has protected the middle class, the elderly, the children, the sick, and the most vulnerable in this country.”

Government watchdog concludes acting heads of Homeland Security were illegally appointed by Trump -On Friday the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a congressional watchdog, issued a legally non-binding report which found the current head of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Chad Wolf, and his deputy secretary, Kenneth Cuccinelli, were not legally appointed to their roles pursuant to the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998.Throughout his presidency Donald Trump has sought to circumvent congressional approval for department heads through the technique of appointing “acting” secretaries after previous heads resigned. In this way Trump has cultivated, and is seeking to expand, his personalist fascist base of support within the leadership of DHS and throughout the state apparatus.The DHS, with its 240,000 employees and nearly $50 billion budget for fiscal year 2021, currently has no Senate-approved leadership. The agency has been wielded by the Trump administration as a personal army directed at terrorizing the working class under conditions of mounting opposition to the homicidal policies pursued by the ruling class against workers and immigrants.Under the leadership of Wolf and Cuccinelli in the last three months DHS thugs have been found kidnapping fathers on their way to work,disappearing and shooting protesters in Portland, raiding a humanitarian aid camp in southern Arizona and developing “intelligence products” on US journalists. Both appointees have made frequent appearances on Fox News and delivered congressional testimony in which they have vilified protesters as “anarchist terrorists.” At a congressional hearing last week Wolf defended DHS snatching protesters off the streets in unmarked vans as a “common de-escalation tactic.” The GAO investigation found that Wolf and Cuccinelli were part of an “invalid order of succession” after the previous head of the DHS, Kirstjen Nielsen, resigned from the agency on April 10, 2019. After Nielsen’s resignation, she named Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Kevin McAleenan as her designated successor, in violation of the then existing designation which required the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Christopher Krebs, to assume the title of Acting Secretary.

Trump: I should be on Mt. Rushmore for doing 'more than' other presidents - US President Donald Trump reached out to South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem about adding his image to Mount Rushmore National Memorial, according to The New York Times, a report which Trump later denied.  "This is Fake News by the failing @nytimes & bad ratings @CNN," Trump said in response to the report on Twitter. "Never suggested it although, based on all of the many things accomplished during the first 3 1/2 years, perhaps more than any other Presidency, sounds like a good idea to me!"   Trump first expressed his dream with Noem of being carved on the monument alongside the 60-foot-tall faces of US presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln during their first meeting in the Oval Office in 2018, when she was still running for governor.   Noem described her conversation with Trump to the South Dakota newspaper Argus Leader at the time.  "I shook his hand, and I said 'Mr. President, you should come to South Dakota sometime. We have Mount Rushmore.' And he goes, 'Do you know it's my dream to have my face on Mount Rushmore?'"   Noem was convinced he was joking. "I started laughing," she said, but "he wasn't laughing, so he was totally serious."   According to the Times report, Trump's determination was made even more clear a year later, when a White House aide reached out to the governor’s office and asked about the process of adding additional presidents to Mount Rushmore.  Then, on July 4, Trump arrived in South Dakota  for his July 4th celebrations and was greeted by Noem, now governor, who didn't forget their previous talk and presented him with a four-foot replica of Mount Rushmore that included his face.  Trump fiercely defended Mount Rushmore during his visit, which activists and native tribal leaders have long criticized for its controversial history, saying it will "stand forever as an eternal tribute to our forefathers, and to our freedom."

Trump requests mail-in ballot for Florida congressional primary - President Trump and first lady Melania Trump have both requested mail-in ballots for the upcoming Florida primaries despite the president's frequent criticism of mail-in ballot systems in the U.S., USA Today reported. The president, who changed his permanent residence from New York to Florida during his first term in office, is casting a ballot to be counted Aug. 18 in the state's congressional primary elections. A request from the first couple was posted online by Palm Beach County election officials on Wednesday. A ballot will be picked up and delivered to the president's Florida residence of Mar-a-Lago before it will travel to Washington, D.C., for their votes. It will then be mailed to Florida officials ahead of the state's primary election Tuesday. White House officials did not immediately return a request for comment from The Hill. Trump has frequently claimed that the practice of voting by mail will lead to voter fraud. However, there is scant evidence to suggest that this is the case.

Biden’s blueprint for a right-wing presidency: Part two - The longest single section of the draft Democratic platform is on foreign policy. This was Biden’s main concern during the second half of his lengthy Senate career, after he became the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1997. He played a major role in rallying congressional support for Bill Clinton’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, for the war in Afghanistan in 2001, and for the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.Significantly, foreign policy was not one of the six platform sub-groups in which Sanders and Biden aides worked together. This was both a reflection of Sanders’s longstanding refusal to make any serious appeal to the antiwar sentiments of the American people, his overall support for the war policy of the Obama-Biden administration, and his acknowledgement that in this area Biden had to have a free hand in order to make his arrangements with the national-security apparatus.This platform section includes avowals, traditional in both major American capitalist parties, that the American military must be number one in the world and must be able to go to war anywhere on the planet, no matter how remote from the United States, with the assurance of victory.The main criticism of Trump by the Democrats is that his “America First” orientation has alienated traditional US allies and weakened the global position of American imperialism. One passage declares sarcastically:The United States should be at the head of the table whenever the safety and well-being of Americans is at stake, working in common cause with our allies and partners. Time and again, the Trump administration has stormed out, leaving America’s seat at the table vacant and American interests on the menu.This section goes on to note that the US must confront the world “as it is today, not as it was before President Trump’s destruction” of US influence. In other words, Washington must seek to reconquer old positions now taken by its rivals: a formula for conflict on a global scale.The document attacks Trump for weakness towards Russia, claiming, “He has pushed to bring Russia back into the G7 while lambasting our NATO partners and ignoring i ntelligence about Russian bounties for killing American troops and other coalition forces in Afghanistan.” But it says nothing about impeachment, the Mueller investigation, and other efforts by congressional Democrats to use the bogus anti-Russia agitation to undermine Trump or force a more confrontational policy towards Moscow.

 After Elon Musk criticised Bernie Sanders’ brand of socialism, Sanders took him to task for taking billions of dollars in government support  - Bernie Sanders showed Friday he isn’t afraid to call out hypocrisy – particularly when it comes from someone like Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Musk on Friday tweeted out a meme critical of Sanders and his brand of socialism. The tweet was in response to an article about a bill Sanders introduced Thursday that would place a 60% tax on the wealth gained by billionaires such as Musk during the coronavirus pandemic. The meme, dubbed the “Official Bernie Sanders drinking game!” showed a picture of Sanders along with the text: “Every time the Bernster mentions a free government program, chug somebody else’s beer.”Sanders, who’s no neophyte when it comes to defending his leftist views and programs, wasn’t about to back down from such criticism. In a tweeted response, he called out Musk for benefiting to the tune of billions of dollars from government subsidies and linked toan article from The Los Angeles Times that detailed the assistance Musk and his companies have received.“Every time Elon Musk pokes fun at government assistance for the 99%, remember that he would be worth nothing without $US4.9 billion in corporate welfare,” Sanders wrote. “Oh, Elon just l-o-v-e-s corporate socialism for himself, rugged capitalism for everyone else.”

Ghislaine Maxwell fails to obtain delay in unsealing documents  (Reuters) - A U.S. judge on Wednesday rejected Ghislaine Maxwell’s request for a three-week delay in the unsealing of additional documents related to her dealings with the late financier Jeffrey Epstein. Lawyers for the British socialite, who faces criminal charges she aided Epstein’s sexual abuses, had on Monday said “critical new information” had surfaced that could affect Maxwell’s ability to obtain a fair trial, justifying the delay. But in a two-page order, U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in Manhattan said she had no reasonable basis to order a delay, because a protective order in the criminal case meant the new information could not be disclosed. Lawyers for Maxwell did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The documents come from a long-settled civil defamation case against Maxwell by Virginia Giuffre, who said Epstein kept her as a “sex slave” with Maxwell’s help. Maxwell has asked the federal appeals court in Manhattan to block the release from that case of a 2016 deposition about her sex life, also citing the threat to a fair trial. That court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on Sept. 22. Maxwell’s criminal trial is scheduled for next July. U.S. prosecutors are expected by Thursday to respond to a separate request by Maxwell’s lawyers that she be moved into the general population at the Brooklyn jail where she is being held. The lawyers said Maxwell has been subjected to “uniquely onerous” conditions, including 24-hour surveillance and numerous body scans, and should be treated like other pretrial detainees. Epstein was found hanged last August in a Manhattan jail while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, 2-1/2 weeks after an apparent unsuccessful suicide attempt. Maxwell’s lawyers called her treatment in jail “a reaction” to Epstein’s jailing and death.

Fed publishes big-bank capital requirements tied to stress test buffer — The Federal Reserve on Monday published capital requirements for the largest banks it supervises that for the first time will incorporate a so-called stress capital buffer. Goldman Sachs will have to comply with the highest capital requirements out of all of the 34 banks, with a common equity Tier 1 requirement of 13.7%. The new requirements will kick in Oct.1 . The common equity Tier 1 capital requirement is made up of the minimum CET1 capital ratio of 4.5%, which applies to each of the 34 banks, combined with the stress capital buffer requirement and, if applicable, a surcharge for the eight U.S.-based global systemically important banks. The stress capital buffer — which the Fed finalized in March — is calculated as the difference between a bank’s starting and projected capital ratios under the “severely adverse” stress test scenario. The buffer also factors in a bank's common stock dividends as a percentage of risk-weighted assets. Morgan Stanley will be required to comply with the second-highest capital requirements after Goldman Sachs with a CET1 requirement of 13.4%. DB USA, an affiliate of Deutsche Bank, has the highest capital requirement among non-U.S. GSIBs at 12.3%. The lowest capital requirements are 7% for American Express, DWS USA (another arm of Deutsche Bank), Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Northern Trust, PNC Financial Services Group, Santander Holdings USA, TD Group and U.S. Bancorp. State Street Corp. has the lowest capital requirements out of the eight GSIBs at 8%, followed by Wells Fargo at 9%. However, the final capital requirements could be subject to change. The Fed is conducting a midcycle stress test this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, and it has left open the possibility that a firm’s stress capital buffer could be recalculated based on the results of the second round of stress tests. Although the midcycle stress tests will likely not be conducted before the capital requirements are set to take effect Oct. 1, the Fed could update a firm's stress capital buffer requirement and require a firm to comply with a new requirement at a later date.

Bombshell Report: Fed Is Aware that Big Banks Are Rigging their Stress Tests and Letting Them Get Away with It -  Pam Martens -- On January 31 of this year, researchers for the Federal Reserve released a study that showed that the largest banks operating in the U.S. have been gaming their stress test results by intentionally dropping their exposure to over-the-counter derivatives in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter data is the information used by the Federal Reserve to determine surcharges on capital for Global Systemically Important Banks, or G-SIBs.The report, “How Do U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks Lower Their Capital Surcharges?,” was written by Jared Berry, Akber Khan, and Marcelo Rezende.We decided to evaluate this claim for ourselves, usingthe quarterly derivative reports provided by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks. The data was appalling. The largest Wall Street banks not only dropped their level of derivatives by trillions of dollars in the fourth quarter, but they restored those derivatives by the end of the following first quarter. (See first OCC chart below which shows the largest of the top 25 banks by derivative exposure.)In the case of JPMorgan Chase, it dropped its total derivatives from $55 trillion notional (face amount) in the third quarter to $46.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019, a decline of $8 trillion in one quarter or 15 percent. But by the end of the first quarter of 2020, JPMorgan had pushed those derivatives back up to $59.6 trillion.The Federal Reserve seems to be accepting this behavior from JPMorgan Chase as a legitimate means of reducing its capital requirements. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced the new capital requirements for the largest, Global Systemically Important Banks, or G-SIBs. We fully expected JPMorgan Chase to be slapped with the highest capital requirement since its Systemic Risk Report last year showed it to be the riskiest bank in the U.S. and, clearly, based on the above research that appears on the Fed’s own website, it’s aware of JPMorgan’s “window dressing,” the term used by its own researchers.But instead of JPMorgan Chase getting slapped with the highest Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital requirement of all 34 banks that underwent the stress test, it was given a relatively tame 11.3 percent CET1. The banks hit with the highest CET1 capital requirements were Goldman Sachs at 13.7 percent and Morgan Stanley at 13.4 percent. (See the Fed’s full chart of capital requirements here.)Morgan Stanley does not show up on the first OCC chart below because it holds its huge derivatives book at its bank holding company, rather than at its federally-insured commercial banks. The second OCC chart below suggests that Morgan Stanley was also window-dressing its derivatives book, dropping it from $36.2 trillion in the third quarter of 2019 to $32.5 trillion in the fourth quarter; then back to $35.6 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley came away with a higher CET1 capital requirement than even Deutsche Bank’s U.S. entity, DB USA, which was assigned a CET1 capital requirement of 12.3 percent. That’s really saying something. Deutsche Bank has lost money in four of the last five years, including a whopping $5.8 billion last year. Its stock price has evaporated 90 percent of its value since 2007 and it has been repeatedly hit with large fines by regulators for money laundering.

Wall Street Banks Are Dangerously Evading U.S. Derivatives Rules by Making Trades at Foreign Subsidiaries →  -Pam Martens -- On May 30, with little mainstream media attention, four European academics published a report on how some of the largest Wall Street banks (all of whom received massive amounts of secret Federal Reserve bailout money during the 2007 to 2010 financial crash) were shamelessly gaming the system again. Rather than complying with the derivatives regulations imposed under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the Wall Street mega banks had simply moved much of their interest rate derivatives trading to their foreign subsidiaries that fall outside of U.S. regulatory reach. This is known as regulatory arbitrage: seeking the most lightly regulated jurisdiction to ply your dangerous trading activity. (Think JPMorgan’s London Whale fiasco.) The European academics are Pauline Gandré, Mike Mariathasan, Ouarda Merrouche and Steven Ongena. The paper is titled: “Regulatory Arbitrage and the G20’s Global Derivatives Market Reform.”The researchers discovered that “US banks reduced their [derivative] holdings at home, while increasing them in Australia, Japan, the UK, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, and Mexico.”The poster child for becoming a financial basket case in 2008, Citigroup, was called out particularly in the report. Citigroup had gone from no interest rate derivatives at its foreign subsidiaries in the fourth quarter of 2010 to over 60 percent by the fourth quarter of 2015. JPMorgan Chase went from about zero percent to more than 40 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley more than doubled their foreign subsidiary exposure to derivatives during the same time frame. During the last financial crisis, Citigroup received the largest bailout in global banking history, grabbing $45 billion in capital from the U.S. Treasury; over $300 billion in asset guarantees from the federal government; the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) guaranteed $5.75 billion of its senior unsecured debt and $26 billion of its commercial paper and interbank deposits; and the Federal Reserve secretly made a cumulative $2.5 trillion in below market interest rate loans to Citigroup from 2007 through at least the middle of 2010, according to an audit by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). A decade after the worst collapse of iconic Wall Street institutions in history and the largest Federal Reserve bank bailouts in global banking history, there is very little to show in the way of meaningful reform. Without the restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act, Wall Street’s wealth transfer system, that plunders the 99 percent in service to the 1 percent, will continue humming along.

Regulators issue guidance on AML enforcement actions — Federal banking regulators on Thursday clarified that they generally do not issue cease-and-desist orders for minor deficiencies in a bank's anti-money-laundering program or isolated violations of Bank Secrecy Act rules. In a joint statement, the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and National Credit Union Administration updated their guidance on how they evaluate violations of AML rules. "Violations or deficiencies in an institution’s BSA/AML compliance program communicated to the institution in a report of examination or through other written means that are determined to be isolated or technical are generally not considered problems that would result in a mandatory cease and desist order," the agencies said. The agencies also listed four pillars for an institution’s AML compliance program. They include internal controls for ongoing AML compliance, independent testing, designating individuals to coordinate AML compliance and proper training for personnel involved AML compliance. The agencies said financial institutions’ AML compliance programs must include customer identification programs that ensure firms “form a reasonable belief” that they know the identity of their customers. The guidance highlighted scenarios in which regulators will issue cease-and-desist orders for AML violations. Financial institutions that lack a "reasonably designed" AML program or do not address previously reported AML problems could face the threat of such an order, the guidance said. For example, an institution will be issued a cease-and-desist order if it has deficiencies in the required independent testing component of the AML compliance program that are combined with signs of highly suspicious activity. The agencies said an institution that fails to take any action in response to criticism from an exam regarding a failure to appoint a qualified and effective AML compliance officer would also likely receive a cease-and-desist order

 Citi asks Revlon lenders to return mistaken $900 million - Citigroup is attempting to recover almost $900 million it mistakenly paid to Revlon lenders who are locked in a bitter fight with the struggling cosmetics giant over a 2016 asset transfer. The bank had recouped some of the money, which the New York-based lender blamed on a clerical error, and more was trickling in on Friday, according to people with knowledge of the matter. But more than half of it remained uncollected because some of the lenders — who had claimed Revlon was in default and should have repaid them anyway — are refusing to return it, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The sum was the equivalent to the principal amount of an outstanding Revlon loan plus accrued interest, the people said. A representative for Citigroup declined to comment on the payment, which was earlier reported by The Wall Street Journal. Revlon said it wasn’t behind the payment. “Revlon did not pay down the loan or any part of the loan,” a representative for the company said in an emailed statement. The payment error comes as Revlon, controlled by Ron Perelman’s MacAndrews & Forbes, is embroiled in a legal dispute with a group of its lenders over the company’s debt-restructuring tactics. On Wednesday, UMB Financial in Kansas City, Mo., sued Revlon on behalf of certain dissenting lenders including Brigade Capital Management and HPS Investment Partners, claiming it moved valuable brand assets beyond lenders’ reach to the benefit of other creditors. Along with the suit, the $29.8 billion-asset UMB sent Revlon a notice of acceleration on the loans, claiming the company is operating under a default, the people said. Revlon said it would fight UMB’s “meritless” lawsuit and said UMB doesn’t have standing because it’s not the agent on the loan. “This group of lenders has repeatedly resorted to baseless accusations in an attempt to enrich themselves and hurt the company by blocking Revlon from exercising its contractual rights to secure the financing necessary to execute our turnaround strategy and navigate the COVID-19 crisis,” Revlon said in an earlier statement. Revlon has struggled to remain relevant and stem falling sales amid competition from Estee Lauder Cos. and a host of smaller companies using social media to lure customers. Saddled with nearly $3 billion of debt, the retailer has been hit hard by the pandemic and is seeking to rework its borrowings. Because of the legal battle, Citigroup had already been in the process of resigning from its administrative role before the payment mishap, the people said.

California’s ‘mini-CFPB’ plan is back in play. Banks aren’t happy - A California bill that would create a powerful state agency fashioned after the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has made a comeback with the support of small businesses and fintech firms that want expanded protections during the coronavirus pandemic. But most financial institutions, including banks, auto and payday lenders, are trying to stop the bill because it would expand the state's enforcement powers, potentially increasing fines and compliance costs. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to expand oversight of all financial services companies in California was inserted back into a final budget bill that legislators must pass by Aug. 31. The plan initially had been dropped from a budget bill in June. The proposal would replace the state’s existing Department of Business Oversight with a new agency called the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, equipped with powers resembling those of the CFPB. State senators were scheduled to hold a crucial hearing over the weekend to debate the merits of what some are calling a "mini-CFPB." The plan would, among other things, expand consumer protections to small-business borrowers that have complained of being targeted by unregulated, high-cost lenders. But nearly a dozen bank and financial services trade groups are making a last-ditch effort to kill the proposal. Industry representatives have stepped up their engagement with lawmakers and sent letters to state officials. Financial firms are particularly opposed to a provision in the bill expanding enforcement and imposing administrative penalties for “unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices,” in part because the federal government already enforces a ban on so-called UDAAPs. "The state is imposing new enforcement requirements that lack clarity and seem to be redundant,” said Scott Govenar, a lobbyist for the California Financial Services Association, which represents auto lenders. But the plan has garnered the support of 47 fintech, small business and consumer advocacy groups that want a slew of unregulated industries — debt collectors, credit reporting agencies and merchant cash advance lenders that market to small businesses — to be registered and regulated. “It hurts borrowers and lenders alike when responsible companies must compete against actors who find advantage in unfair and deceptive acts,” said Kim Wilson, director of policy and advocacy at the Responsible Business Lending Coalition, which represents fintech firms including LendingClub and Funding Circle as well as nonprofit community development financial institutions.

What Trump’s reelection would mean for banks — If the 2016 election is any indication for bankers, they shouldn't rule out President Trump's reelection in November, despite polls showing an advantage for former Vice President Joe Biden. Current projections clearly favor the presumptive Democratic nominee. But observers say if Trump catches up to Biden and wins reelection, the pro-business agenda that defined his first term would be magnified in a second. Trump-appointed regulators, with added job security, could aim to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, strengthen reforms to the Community Reinvestment Act, further ease capital requirements for community banks and give tech firms more latitude to operate within the financial system, among other things. If Trump wins, "the White House and the regulators too are going to feel emboldened and I think they are going to feel a little bit more willing to go out and be assertive on deregulatory measures,” said Ian Katz, a director at Capital Alpha Partners. The most direct result of Trump's reelection would be that the administration retains control over who heads the agencies, meaning less uncertainty about leadership for agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. A longer tenure for CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger would mean the agency could finalize changes to mortgage rules sought by the industry, among other things. And with acting Comptroller Brian Brooks potentially able to stay longer or the administration better positioned to nominate a successor to former Comptroller Joseph Otting, the OCC could try to expand support for its recent CRA rule. To date, other regulators such as Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Jelena McWilliams have balked at supporting the rule, but that could change in a second term. CRA, community bank relief, FSOC "It breathes new life into this Community Reinvestment Act fight," said a former Republican congressional staffer. "OCC has obviously led the charge on that with Otting. It feels like McWilliams wants to do something but hasn’t. … I think that if Biden loses, you’ll see another effort to reform CRA in a meaningful manner.” Katz said regulators may be proceeding cautiously on regulatory relief before the upcoming election, but that a Trump victory could trigger a more aggressive approach. “Maybe to the extent that the Fed and the FDIC have been sensitive to public opinion and sensitive to feedback from some of the Democrats, they may feel a little bit more like they’ve got the wind at their backs and are willing to be assertive in deregulation,” he said.

Why banks are putting PPP forgiveness on the back burner - The Paycheck Protection Program's forgiveness portal has debuted, leaving bankers and their borrowers with a big decision. Those who participated in the $659 billion program must determine if they are ready right now to navigate the complex system for having loans forgiven, or if it makes sense to wait and see if Congress intervenes and simplifies the process. That decision was complicated over the weekend when talks about a new round of stimulus collapsed, casting doubt on when — or if — PPP will get an overhaul. A number of banks, including JPMorgan Chase, the program's biggest participant with $29.2 billion in PPP originations, plan to hold off on processing applications. The $3.2 trillion-asset banking giant will start the forgiveness process next month, said Kimberly Hooks, a vice president at Chase Business Banking. JPMorgan Chase is backing a push for automatic forgiveness “as it would help thousands of small business owners get back on their feet,” Hooks added. Holtmeyer & Monson in Memphis, Tenn., is taking a similar wait-and-see approach with the 12,000 PPP loans it is servicing for 450 banks. “We had hoped today to actively start taking applications, but we made the decision to hold off,” said Arne Monson, the firm’s president and a co-founder. “We’re hoping like hell we get automatic forgiveness for loans of $150,000 and below, and maybe a streamlined [process] for those up to $2 million.” An SBA spokeswoman confirmed Monday that the agency's platform began accepting forgiveness applications on schedule, though she did not provide any statistics on opening-day activity. The SBA stopped accepting applications for new Paycheck Protection loans on Saturday, after Congress failed to extend the program’s operating authority. Lawmakers are considering a number of proposals for a revived PPP, including increased funding and letting the hardest-hit small businesses obtain a second loan. Lenders' willingness to procrastinate, even if it means delaying resolution of billions of dollars in loans, comes as little surprise to many industry observers.The SBA approved about 5.2 million PPP loans for more than $525 billion before the portal's closure. The program offers low-interest loans to small businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Funds spent on basic operating expenses are eligible for forgiveness, making the program even more attractive to struggling entrepreneurs, but the process has been rocky, characterized by delays and unclear guidance. The forgiveness process has been stressful for borrowers and lenders. The SBA did not release a forgiveness application until mid-May, nearly six weeks after it began approving loans. A month later, following criticism that the original 11-page application was too long and complex, the agency released a streamlined form for self-employed borrowers and those that did not reduce employees’ wages by more than 25%. Before July 23, when it released news of the forgiveness platform, the SBA had never indicated where lenders could submit their applications.

OCC's Brooks questions need for government-owned payment systems — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks questioned the idea of government-owned payment rails as the future of money transmission on Thursday, arguing instead for a decentralized system led by private companies. Speaking with Circle Financial Services CEO Jeremy Allaire on the “Money Movement” podcast, Brooks pointed to the history of innovation in the U.S. payments system, which he claimed was largely driven by the private sector. He used the Visa network as an example of a now-ubiquitous payments system that started out simply as a credit card offered by Bank of America. “What I always find puzzling when we talk about this is, why, given that history, people now believe that the payments system is a government service,” Brooks said. “It's definitely a public good in the economic sense of, there are benefits created that cannot be fully captured by the owner so, in that sense, it is a public good," he continued. "But why do we think it has to be owned by the government when none of the things we've just described were ever owned by the government?” Brooks, a longtime fintech enthusiast and a former chief legal officer at Coinbase, appeared to favor decentralization over centralized payments systems like the one overseen in the U.S. by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is currently focused on expanding its reach into the payments realm by developing FedNow, a real-time payments service. “My personal view is, the ultimate public ownership of the payment rails is when you have a network, like the internet, of interconnected institutions and computers that are maintaining ledgers and allowing direct person-to-person transactions,” Brooks said. He added later, "We're way down the path of decentralization." "I think we're now maybe close to the point where we will achieve ultimate decentralization," he said. "And we've been on this journey for 200 years." Brooks's remarks Thursday echoed a 2019 essay he published in Fortune magazine in which he argued the private sector was better positioned than the U.S. government to develop a so-called digital dollar. Brooks said in the essay that there was “no more need for the government to control the blockchain policy of stablecoin issuers than there is for the government to dictate the technology used by privately owned commercial and investment banks.”

 What Mastercard's crypto plans signal for the future of digital payments - Major payment companies have long looked on at cryptocurrencies as too risky to touch, but too tempting to ignore. Mastercard's latest move signals that the card brands are ready to make a firm pitch for crypto spending. However, the stigma attached to cryptocurrencies still hasn't gone away. The recent use of bitcoin as part of a takeover of prominent Twitter accounts, and revelations of fraud and deception by Germany's Wirecard — a major crypto debit card provider — strengthened the association between cryptocurrencies and cybercrime. At the same time, there's a clear benefit to supporting legal crypto payments. In a quarter that saw many traditional payment companies lose considerable volume due to the coronavirus lockdowns, Square's Cash App, which allowed users to trade bitcoin, helped the company's revenue in the second quarter even as its seller volume fell. Mastercard made its first significant move into cryptocurrency products in July, announcing Wirex as the first crypto provider to roll out a product through Mastercard Accelerate, which Mastercard has primed as a turnkey launching pad for other cryptocurrency providers.Wirex will launch a Mastercard-branded cryptocurrency card enabling users to buy, hold and exchange traditional funds and cryptocurrencies, with up to 1.5% rewards back in bitcoin for in-store purchases; Mastercard said it’s in discussions with other crypto exchanges for product launches. Mastercard's goal is to develop the industry's friendliest platform for cryptocurrency operators and end users, said Raj Dhamodharan, Mastercard’s executive vice president of digital asset and blockchain products and partnerships. “We want to create an ecosystem to contract with cryptocurrency providers in an efficient and trusted manner so crypto can be exchanged in a safe and secure way,” Dhamodharan said. The payment networks' growing interest in the crypto arena lends credibility to a category that many mainstream financial services operators have viewed with skepticism.  Visa recently outlined its plans to expand crypto products in a blog post, emphasizing why stablecoins that blend digital currencies with traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar look promising. More than 25 crypto wallets are already linked to Visa, plus there is Coinbase's card-issuing deal announced in February and a card Visa announced in April with the startup Fold that generates rewards in bitcoin. And PayPal reportedly is developing a method enabling consumers to buy bitcoin through Venmo via a mobile wallet upgrade that could go live as early as this fall.

Spike in disputed payments causing headaches for card industry- The credit card industry’s No. 1 concern during the coronavirus pandemic is that tens of millions of Americans are unemployed and struggling to pay their monthly bills. But the COVID-19 crisis has also given rise to a second problem: a sharp increase in the number of disputed card transactions, as airlines have canceled flights, performers have postponed concerts, and supply chain disruptions have delayed the delivery of many goods. In June, chargebacks that were not a result of fraud were 23% higher than during the same period a year earlier, according to e-commerce data released Wednesday by the payment processing firm ACI Worldwide. A Mastercard executive estimated that the increase in requests for consumer refunds has been even larger — somewhere in the range of 35% to 40% higher than last year. “There’s no question that the number of chargebacks has increased,” said Marie Russo, a senior vice president at Mastercard who is responsible for dispute resolution management, “just due to the circumstances around COVID.” The number of disputed transactions is still small in comparison with the total volume of U.S. card payments. Before the pandemic, Brian Riley at Mercator Advisory Group estimated that around four in 10,000 credit card transactions were the subject of a dispute. It is also the case that COVID-19 has been a boon for the electronic payments industry, as many transactions that were previously conducted in person are now being handled online. Still, the recent jump in chargebacks is having important consequences for card-issuing banks, retailers and other players in the electronic payment ecosystem. Payment disputes have been adding to long waits at call centers that have also been hit hard by customer requests for forbearance. Riley offered some advice to consumers who call their credit card company: “You’d better be prepared to read a book or something.” It is not just banks that have gotten slammed with phone calls from dissatisfied consumers. Many retailers are in a similar position, in part because shelter-in-place orders impacted their ability to operate call centers effectively. “Some merchants that we work with,” said Erika Dietrich, a vice president at ACI Worldwide, “just didn’t have the ability for their call center staff to work from home.” The travel and entertainment industry, which does not typically deliver physical goods, but instead offers experiences that require people to leave their homes, was especially hard hit, particularly in the early days of the pandemic, according to Jodie Kelley, CEO of the Electronic Transactions Association. “Certain merchants are just getting flooded with requests,” she said.

  There Are Now Less Than 3,000 US Listed Companies And Over 7,000 Global ETFs - ETFs used to be touted as a great way to gain exposure to the stock market. But now, thanks to fee-hungry issuers, the tail is wagging the dog and ETFs are the stock market.  As far back as late 2017, there were just 3,671 domestic listings, according to the Wall Street Journal. The number had declined due to the growth of venture capital and private equity."The number of public companies in the U.S. has been on a steady decline since peaking in the late 1990s. In 1996 there were 7,322 domestic companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Today there are only 3,671. Easy access to venture, growth and private-equity capital means that companies no longer need to pursue an initial public offering to fund growth or access liquidity," the WSJ wrote about 3 years ago.Since then, the number has continued to decline. Yesterday on CNBC, it was reported that there are now less than 3,000 public listings. But there's now more than 7,000 ETFs globally.   We have often discussed the liquidity crisis that could be created from passive investing in ETFs as their popularity grows. Additionally, the use of ETFs as trading vehicles instead could wind up distorting the true price of the underlying stocks held within them. Late last year we noted that passive funds had surpassed active funds thanks to the Fed basically making active investing obsolete. Retail masses followed this lead, which has spurred the demand for ETFs that have allowed them to continue to pop up at an alarming rate. Recall, back in September of 2019, Michael Burry had claimed that "Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago." He continued: “Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be. This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.” In case anyone has wondered just how long it has gone on, the widening delta between listed companies and global ETFs gives an indication of exactly how distorted things have become.

 Labor Dept. plan to replace fiduciary rule catches flak from all sides - The Labor Department is hearing an earful from industry groups, consumer advocates and lawmakers about its new fiduciary proposal. The criticism is wide-ranging, with industry groups warning that it will automatically impose a presumption of fiduciary status on financial professionals, while others blast the regulation for failing to enact meaningful consumer protections. Still others take issue with the process by which the Department of Labor advanced its proposal, with a 30-day comment period on the proposed rule ending Aug. 6. Its Obama-era predecessor had a 90-day comment period and three and a half days of public hearings. The latest proposal establishes a new prohibited transaction exemption under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act permitting advisers to receive various forms of compensation when providing advice that might entail conflicts of interest. It's meant to bring adviser regulation in line with the Securities and Exchange Commission's recently enacted Regulation Best Interest. It also comes as a replacement for the Labor Department's vacated fiduciary rule from 2016, a stricter standard that was widely reviled by the brokerage industry and succumbed to a court challenge led by Eugene Scalia, who was a private attorney at the time and today serves as Labor secretary. Bankers were largely supportive of the department’s proposed exemptions permitting adviser fiduciaries to receive compensation for investment advice, which was otherwise prohibited under ERISA. But they raised concerns that the exemption is too limited. “We commend the Department for its efforts to promote fiduciary investment advice that is intended to meet the needs of retirement investors while preserving the availability and variety of investment advice arrangements,” said Timothy Keehan, vice president and senior counsel of the American Bankers Association, in an Aug. 6 comment letter. “The Exemption’s provisions generally work toward achieving transparency and compliance certainty while providing exemptive relief that is broader than currently available exemptions.” But the ABA urged the department to exclude banks from CEO certification requirements, arguing that banks and broker-dealers have differences in their business models and that the certification requirement for banks would be “significantly onerous.” The trade group also said recordkeeping requirements to be subject to the National Bank Act restrictions on accessing banks’ information, to ensure that only the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency or a representative from the OCC “may exercise visitorial powers” with respect to national banks. The Financial Services Institute, one of the groups that sued to bring down the Obama-era fiduciary standard, is broadly supportive of the Labor Department's new proposal, though not universally so. The group takes aim at disclosure provisions requiring firms taking advantage of the prohibited transaction exemption to inform clients that they are fiduciaries under ERISA. That is at odds with the SEC's calculated decision not to use the term "fiduciary" in Reg BI, and the Financial Services Institute cautions that the Labor Department's disclosure policy "will lead to investor confusion and even be misleading (resulting in disqualification under the exemption), particularly in the IRA setting where ERISA's enforcement standards do not apply."

 Dan Gilbert’s Fortune Explodes to $34 Billion, Impoverished Region Still Paying for Arena Upgrades -Cleveland Scene - Dan Gilbert's personal fortune ballooned to roughly $34 billion Thursday, after his mortgage empire was put on the New York Stock Exchange. Gilbert owns fully 73 percent of the Rocket Cos. under which Quicken Loans is housed, and after hisbountiul initial public offering, he is now the 28th-wealthiest person on Planet Earth.  Revelations of Gilbert's expansive wealth — the dollar amount of which is at least four times larger than previous Bloomberg estimates — may come as a shock for Clevelanders, who no doubt recall that the region has been saddled with debt on renovations to the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse until 2034. Why would Cuyahoga County willingly downgrade its bond rating to appease Gilbert by subsidizing these renovations when it's already overburdened with staggering debt on other ill-conceived mega-projects? Why would elected leaders agree to to fork over millions of dollars every year for new upgrades when the public already pays for all major capital repairs at the arena via the Sin Tax, which was created specifically for that purpose? Why would leaders agree to such an odious arrangement when half of the city of Cleveland's children live in poverty and when nearly half of the city's families are without home internet access? How could these leaders rationalize additional public subsidies when virtually every public and quasi-public agency is begging for new or enhanced taxes to pay for essential services? Why would they agree to such wildly imbalanced terms? How on earth could they justify funding the discretionary spending of one of the world's richest men, and assuming the project's total debt on his behalf?   It boggles the mind. Yet Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson, City Council President Kevin Kelley and Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish all bent over backwards to celebrate the merits of the deal, praising it in terms embarrassing to revisit. But Jackson, Kelley and Budish went a step further. When the public refused to believe their propaganda, these top elected leaders ensured that the public's voice would not be heard, blocking a referendum effort, stalling it in the courts, and ultimately pressuring the opposition's leaders to withdraw the petitions with a key assist from Congresswoman Marcia Fudge.  Months later, many of these same leaders were scratching their heads over Cleveland's abysmal performance on national economic rankings. Now, as both the city and the county brace for economic crises spawned by the Coronavirus pandemic, (including a lawsuit that poses an existential threat to the city's income tax base), Dan Gilbert gets to sit back and watch his personal fortunes soar, thanks in part to unprecedentedly low interest rates. Yahoo Financereported that Quicken Loans alone netted profits of more than $890 million in 2019.

Banks, consumers groups to CFPB- Don’t rush overhaul of redlining law - Banks are joining consumer groups to urge the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau not to rush potential changes to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The CFPB asked the public last month to weigh in on possible ways to improve how the agency implements the 1974 law, which bars discrimination in any aspect of a credit transaction, through Regulation B. But a coalition including banking trade groups, consumer advocates and civil rights groups sent a letter to CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger Monday calling for more time to respond. The bureau gave commenters an Oct. 2 deadline, which is two months after the agency's notice was published in the Federal Register. "We respectfully submit that a 60-day comment period does not provide sufficient time to meaningfully address the ten important issue areas presented in the" request for input, wrote the groups, which include the American Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, Consumer Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America, among others. "Comment on each one of these issues is vital to achieving a fairer and more inclusive marketplace. In addition, the COVID-19 emergency and shutdowns make the 60-day comment period even more challenging for all of us. For these reasons, developing thoughtful comments on each issue to help the Bureau achieve those goals will take more time than has been allotted." Advocacy groups have been particularly up in arms about the duration of the public comment period at a time when the nation is focused on the pandemic and a national debate about racial injustice. “This civil rights statute is too important to address ... in a time of deep distress, with COVID-19 and the country discussing systemic racism,” said Odette Williamson, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center, which signed the letter. "We are very concerned about the scope of the [request for information] and that there is not enough time for a principled and meaningful response." The bureau issued the RFI about reworking the ECOA on July 28, a day before Kraninger testified before Congress. The request also came three months before the presidential election that could result in Kraninger leaving the bureau if the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, wins in November. ECOA experts say each of the topics in the CFPB's RFI would be worthy of its own separate inquiry. Topping the list is whether ECOA compliance should be overhauled due to two separate Supreme Court decisions, one on gender identity discrimination and the other on “disparate impact,” in which borrowers can allege discrimination even if a lender did not show discriminatory intent. But the coalition's letter, while expressing support for an effort to change or clarify Reg B, noted that there is "no statutory deadline or other mandate" requiring a 60-day comment period. "The Bureau has not indicated that it has particular regulatory revisions or clarifications in mind that would warrant the shorter timeframe provided in the current 60-day comment period," the groups said. "We believe that consideration of how Regulation B might be changed or clarified to ensure more equity and fairness should be done through a process that affords a greater opportunity for thoughtful public participation."

 Lawmakers want inquiry into report that OCC halted redlining probes— Three Senate Democrats are calling for an inquiry into reports that officials at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency halted at least a half-dozen investigations related to racial discrimination and redlining. Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are asking the Treasury Department’s acting inspector general, Richard Delmar, for an inquiry into how the OCC handled allegations of discriminatory lending practices at at least six banks. “Recent reports indicate that senior OCC officials have abdicated their responsibilities — allowing banks to continue business as usual despite alleged violations of [Equal Credit Opportunity Act] and [Fair Housing Act],” the senators wrote to Delmar Thursday. “This conduct stands in stark contrast to the OCC’s requirement to enforce the law, its finding that lending discrimination is ‘destructive, morally repugnant, and against the law,’ and its commitment to not ‘tolerate lending discrimination in any form.’ ” The senators’ letter followed a July 13 ProPublica report that OCC staff over the last three years discovered at least six banks, including Bank of America and Cadence Bancorp, were allegedly engaged in discriminatory lending, but failed to reprimand or penalize the institutions. The report said that investigations were stalled and shelved after OCC officials failed to involve experts trained to spot patterns of abuse and took the “unusual step” of bringing in new lawyers to the case. But a spokesperson for the OCC said the agency disputes the allegations raised in the article. “While it is inappropriate to discuss confidential supervisory information publicly, the OCC takes issue with the allegations and inaccuracies in the original article despite providing on-the-record information to the contrary," the spokesperson, Bryan Hubbard, said in an emailed statement. "We welcome the opportunity to discuss the matter with the Senators just as we have with the Chair and Ranking staff of the House Financial Services Committee to correct the record.” The letter calls on Delmar to investigate the processes and procedures in place for OCC staff and officials to launch, conduct and complete fair-lending investigations, and the extent to which staff are following those procedures. Among other requests, the senators asked Delmar to consider whether OCC staff and officials shelved the investigations based on expert judgment or in response to pressure from the Trump administration. The letter also sought answers to whether OCC leadership is acting on recommendations from staff trained to analyze and detect fair-lending violations. The senators also asked the Treasury inspector general to investigate whether the OCC is appropriately using its enforcement authorities to impose monetary penalties against banks that violate fair-lending laws and regulations.

Hotel Bailouts At Taxpayer Expense Coming Right Up – Mish - Commercial Real Estate delinquencies have soared led by lodging. Trepp research shows CMBS Delinquency Rate Surges for the Third Month; Nears  All-Time High. That was for June.  For July, Trepp reported CMBS Delinquency Rate Sees Biggest Drop in More Than Four Years but even with the decline, delinquencies are near record levels.The notable change in the overall delinquency rate was the result of having more than $8 billion in loans “cured” – which means the loan was delinquent in June but reverted to “current” or grace/beyond grace period status in July. As we reported in TreppWire in mid-July, some of the improvements came via loan modifications such as a maturity extension. Additional benefit came via reserve relief, whereby borrowers were permitted to use reserves to keep the loan current. (This was confirmed by special servicer or watchlist comments in July.)The above paragraphs show that it is not clear how much of the alleged improvement is due to extend-and-pretend maneuvers vs. real improvement.  How Long Will Hotels Stay Empty?  That is the key issue.  Trepp discussed that question on June 18.  The report is now a bit out of date, but the observations are still worth a look. At the beginning of this year, one of the biggest headlines in the hotel sector was a measly growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2019. According to STR, the hotel industry recorded a 0.9% increase in RevPAR in 2019 - the lowest annual increase since 2009. At the time, STR had predicted that in 2020, overall RevPAR will only grow by 0.5% as an increase in supply would outpace growth in demand.   Little did we know that any forecast – no matter how conservative – would not be applicable in the next few months. With the sudden COVID-19 outbreak spreading at a rapid pace, the hotel and tourism industries across the world faced a devastating halt. STR's US hotel performance data has shown week-over-week increases in occupancy recently. From above 60% in late-February, the occupancy dropped sharply to only a third at 22% in early-April. It has since inched up slowly every week, coming in at 41.7% for the week ending June 13th. Going forward, CBRE expects that the hotel demand will return to pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2022. In this context, roughly $16.9 billion and $14.7 billion worth of hotel CMBS loans are set to mature in 2020 and 2021 respectively according to Trepp data. Over half of the balance of these maturing loans is backed by full-service hotels.

Obstacles mount for passage of CMBS relief bill - A bipartisan congressional bill introduced last month that would benefit struggling CMBS borrowers through a new Treasury-backed lending facility has moved on to the House Financial Services Committee for consideration. But passage could be an uphill battle, based on negative reaction to the measure. Even an influential pioneer in the commercial mortgage-backed securities market has bashed the measure as a bailout for deep-pocketed developers and investors that is “wrong, plain and simple.” “CMBS borrowers are corporate entities or wealthy individuals who should have known better and who took risks they must now pay for,” Ethan Penner, co-founder and managing partner of New York-based Mosaic Real Estate Investors, wrote in an Aug. 6 online commentary on the website Medium. “These businesses should be allowed to fail.” Penner, a former Nomura Securities financier who as “father of CMBS” helped develop the market for securitizing commercial real estate loans in the 1990s, voiced the kind of criticism that securitized credit analysts from Barclays had predicted shortly after the July 29 introduction of the HOPE (Helping Open Properties Endeavo”) Act. “[D]espite the bipartisan support, we think that there are various obstacles for this bill to pass, the biggest of which is that it will likely be perceived as bailing out wealthy landlords,” according to a July 31 Barclays securitized credit research note. The HOPE Act bill is co-sponsored by three lawmakers — Reps. Van Taylor, R-Texas, Al Lawson, D-Fla., and Andy Barr, R-Ky. — who have warned of a growing wave of delinquencies, foreclosures and further job losses in the hotel and retail industries if CMBS obligors cannot meet their debt service payments. CMBS delinquencies in May topped 10% for the first time in eight years, and borrowers have little flexibility through lenders or servicers to manage their sharp reduction in income due to coronavirus-related business shutdowns. The bill would authorize the U.S. Treasury to purchase preferred equity investments in CMBS loans, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. But while the legislators discuss the threat to CMBS borrowers' livelihoods, large investment firms will also be among the chief beneficiaries of the legislation.

Fee to shield Fannie, Freddie from COVID losses draws instant backlash— Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will impose an “adverse market fee” of 0.5% on most refinanced mortgages starting Sept. 1 due to economic uncertainty, a move that the mortgage industry argues could effectively raise monthly mortgage payments for borrowers. Due to cratering mortgage rates since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, many homeowners have looked to refinance their mortgage in order to lower their monthly payments. But the forthcoming adverse market fee could effectively raise costs for consumers looking to refinance, to the tune of $1,400 for the average consumer, the Mortgage Bankers Association is estimating. The new loan-level price adjustment will apply to all refinances. Neither company specified an end date for the fee. In a letter to lenders, Fannie said it would be implementing the extra fee “in light of market and economic uncertainty resulting in higher risk and costs.” But the announcement by Fannie and Freddie on Thursday night drew an immediate backlash from the mortgage industry. “The stated rationale for the loan-level price adjustment increase rings hollow, and at a time when consumers are struggling in the worst economy since the Great Depression, to add what amounts to a $1,400 fee on every refinance is outrageous,” said Robert Broeksmit, the MBA's president and CEO. The policy resembles a similar fee that the companies implemented during the financial crisis. However, the two situations are somewhat different. The companies imposed the 2008 fee as they faced dramatic losses from the housing crash. Soon after they announced the fee then, the GSEs were placed in government conservatorships, which still exist to this day. By comparison, today the GSEs already have the financial backing of the U.S. government, and the mortgage sector to date has limited effects from the coronavirus pandemic. The companies' second-quarter earnings were a combined $4.33 billion. The Federal Housing Finance Agency approved the request from the GSEs to impose the adverse market fee, an agency spokesperson said. “Based on their projected COVID-related losses, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac requested, and were granted, permission from FHFA to place an adverse market fee on mortgage refinance acquisitions,” the spokesperson said. “FHFA will continue to ensure that the enterprises fulfill their missions and provide liquidity across the economic cycle.” Meanwhile, a Fannie spokesperson said the fee "is designed to ensure we are able to maintain market stability during a time of economic uncertainty.”

CoreLogic: "Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rates Beginning to Climb" -From CoreLogic: Clouds on The Horizon for Many U.S. Homeowners: Overall Delinquency Rates Beginning to Climb, According to CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report: On a national level, 7.3% of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure). This represents a 3.7-percentage point increase in the overall delinquency rate compared to 3.6% in May 2019.To gain an accurate view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, including the share that transition from current to 30 days past due. In May 2020, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates, and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:
• Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 3%, up from 1.7% in May 2019.
• Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 2.8%, up from 0.6% in May 2019.
• Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1.5%, up from 1.3% in May 2019. This is the first year-over-year increase in the serious delinquency rate since November 2010.
• Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, down from 0.4% in May 2019. This is the second consecutive month the U.S. foreclosure rate was at its lowest level for any month since at least January 1999.
• Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 2.2%, up from 0.8% in May 2019. By comparison, in January 2007 — just before the start of the financial crisis — the current- to 30-day transition rate was 1.2%, while it peaked in November 2008 at 2%.
In the months leading up to the pandemic, U.S. mortgage performance was showing signs of sustained improvement. The national unemployment rate matched a 50-year low in February, and overall delinquency had been on an impressive 27 consecutive-month decline. However, by May 2020 — just two months after the coronavirus (COVID-19) was declared a global pandemic — U.S. unemployment surged past 13%, leaving over 4 million homeowners (accounting for more than 8% of all mortgages) little choice but to enter a COVID-19 mortgage forbearance program. “The national unemployment rate soared from a 50-year low in February 2020, to an 80-year high in April,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “With the sudden loss of income, many homeowners are struggling to stay on top of their mortgage loans, resulting in a jump in non-payment.”  Absent further government programs and support, CoreLogic forecasts the U.S. serious delinquency rate to quadruple by the end of 2021, pushing 3 million homeowners into serious delinquency.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 7.44%" of Portfolio Volume  Note: This is as of August 2nd.   The share of mortgage loans in forbearance decreased, but there was a slight uptick in forbearance requests last week.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases for the Eighth Straight Week to 7.44%mThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 23 basis points from 7.67% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.44% as of August 2, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ...“The share of loans in forbearance declined at a more rapid pace last week, with many borrowers who had been making payments while in forbearance deciding to exit. New forbearance requests increased, but are still well below the level of exits,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Some of the decline in the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance was due to additional buyouts of delinquent loans from Ginnie Mae pools, which result in these FHA and VA loans being reported in the portfolio category.”Added Fratantoni, “The job market data in July came in better than expected. However, the unemployment rate is still quite high, and the elevated level of layoffs and slowing pace of hiring will make it more difficult for borrowers to get back on track – particularly if there is not an extension of relief.”By stage, 40.87% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 58.43% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.70% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last eight weeks.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week from 0.10% to 0.12%"

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased -- Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of Monday, August 10th.  From Forbearances Below 4 Million for First Time Since April: The overall trend of incremental improvement in the number of mortgages in active forbearance continues. According to the latest data from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, the number of mortgages in active forbearance fell by another 71,000 over the past week, pushing the total under 4 million for the first time since early May. As of August 10, 3.9 million homeowners were in active forbearance, representing 7.4% of all active mortgages, down from 7.5% the week prior. Together, they represent $852 billion in unpaid principal. ...Again, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around much of the country and the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits last month continue to represent significant uncertainty for the weeks ahead. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates via this blog. CR Note: There will probably be another disaster relief package soon, but we might see an increase in forbearance activity in the coming weeks as we wait for additional relief.

Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined sharply in Q2, Down 35% Year-over-year -- Note, from Fannie: "The decline in single-family REO properties in the first half of 2020 compared with the first half of 2019 was primarily due to the suspension of foreclosures and a reduction in REO acquisitions from serious delinquencies aged greater than 180 days. With instruction from FHFA, we have prohibited our servicers from completing foreclosures on our single-family loans through at least August 31, 2020, except in the case of vacant or abandoned properties. In addition, some states and local governments have enacted additional foreclosure constraints that extend beyond that timeframe." As a result of COVID-19, Fannie and Freddie kept disposing of REO in Q2, but there were very few acquisitions.Fannie and Freddie earlier reported results earlier for Q2 2020. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs). Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 2,812 at the end of Q2 2020, compared to 5,869 at the end of Q2 2019. For Freddie, this is down 96% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010.Fannie Mae reported the number of REO declined to 12,675 at the end of Q2 2020 compared to 17,913 at the end of Q2 2019. For Fannie, this is down 92% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010.

 Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – MBA - Mortgage applications increased 6.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 7, 2020.... The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 47 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago.Mortgage rates fell across the board last week, as investors grew less optimistic of the economic rebound given the resurgence of virus cases. Loan types such as the 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, and jumbo all reached survey lows. Refi activity responded to these lower rates, with the refi share reaching almost 66 percent of all applications, its highest level since May. And the refi index jumped 9 percent, reaching its highest level since April, as both conventional and government applications for refinances increased,” said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Home purchase activity continued its strong run with a 2 percent increase over the week and was up around 22 percent compared to the same week a year ago. While this was still positive news for the purchase market, the gradual slowdown in the improvement in the job market and tight housing inventory remain a concern for the coming months, even as low mortgage rates continue to provide support."...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.06 percent from 3.14 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 33% Year-over-year -From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 8 August: U.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 8 August showed slightly higher occupancy and room rates from the previous week, according to STR.
2-8 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 49.9% (-32.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$100.88 (-24.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$50.37 (-49.4%)
U.S. occupancy has risen week over week for 16 of the last 17 weeks, although growth in demand (room nights sold) has slowed. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. As STR noted, the occupancy rate has increased week-to-week in "16 of the last 17 weeks". The increases in occupancy have slowed and are well below the level for this week last year of 74%. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).According to STR, most of the improvement appears related to leisure travel as opposed to business travel. The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August (right now), and the occupancy declines sharply in the Fall.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in August -- From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 79.3 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of August 6 :  The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 79.3 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by August 6 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 1.9-percentage point, or 223,000-household decrease from the share who paid rent through August 6, 2019 and compares to 77.4 percent that had paid by July 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.“While President Trump announced executive orders relating to rental assistance and continued unemployment benefits, it is unclear when and if those resources will be available to families. NMHC continues to urge the Trump administration and Congressional leaders to restart negotiations and reach a comprehensive agreement on the next COVID relief package. It is critical lawmakers take urgent action to support and protect apartment residents and property owners through an extension of the benefits as well as targeted rental assistance. That support, not a broad-based eviction moratorium, will keep families safely and securely housed as the nation continues to recover from the pandemic.” CR Note: This is for larger, professionally managed properties.  It appears fewer people are paying their rent this year compared to last year (down 1.9 percentage points from a year ago).   But this hasn't fallen off a cliff - yet - with the expiration of the extra unemployment benefits.

Millennials Slammed by Second Financial Crisis Fall Even Further Behind – WSJ - The economic hit of the coronavirus pandemic is emerging as particularly bad for millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, who as a group hadn’t recovered from the experience of entering the workforce during the previous financial crisis.For this cohort, already indebted and a step behind on the career ladder, this second pummeling could keep them from accruing the wealth of older generations.The 12.5% unemployment rate among millennials is higher than that of Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980), and baby boomers (1946 to 1964), according to May figures from the Pew Research Center.  One reason is that some of the hardest hit industries, including leisure and hospitality, have a younger workforce.  Millennials have found it fundamentally more difficult to start a career and achieve the financial independence that allowed previous generations to get married, buy a home and have children. Even the most educated millennials are employed at lower rates than older college graduates, research shows, and millennials’ tendency to work at lower-paying firms has caused them to lag behind in earnings. “It’s a sign that something has broken in the way the economy is working,” . “It’s gotten harder and harder for people to find their footholds.”  As a result, the millennial generation has less wealth than their predecessors had at the same age, and about one-quarter of millennial households have more debt than assets, according to the St. Louis Fed. About one in six were unable to cover a $400 emergency expense before the pandemic started; that share is about one in eight among all Americans, the bank found. Millennials are now at risk of falling further behind because they entered the pandemic in a weaker position than older Americans.

35% Of Small-Business Owners Tapped Personal Savings To Pay Rent, Wages During Pandemic -- As the federal government steps in to bail out overleveraged borrowers in the commercial real estate space, a growing body of evidence is highlighting the fact that Congress's 'PPP' lending program - despite the fact that it has been extended through Aug. 8 - still wasn't enough to save many small business owners from ruin (though there was unsurprisingly no shortage of fraud). A survey published by CreditCards.com shows that 35% of small-business owners were forced to dip into emergency savings to help tide their business or businesses over.  Our July 2020 Small Business Poll uncovered a worrisome fact – 35% of American small-business decision-makers have tapped into personal funds to finance their businesses since the Coronavirus pandemic struck. That includes those who have dipped into a personal savings account (21%), used a personal credit card (24%) or both (10%)."It’s commendable how far these dedicated business owners are willing to go in search of their dreams,” says Ted Rossman, industry analyst at CreditCards.com. “I worry, however, about the debt they’re taking on, and how they’re potentially putting their personal finances at risk."Also notably, 38% of business leaders have turned to either business or personal credit cards during this time, with 20% of those polled leaning on business cards.Paying off credit card debt can be stressful, but there’s a way to do so efficiently. Negotiating interest rates and paying more than the minimum are two ways to reduce the total time and amount of money repaid. "Many of the normal debt reduction tools are in shorter supply these days - for instance, 0% balance transfer offers have dried up due to worries about the economy. That’s why it’s so important to be creative and ask for a break," Rossman added. Another good strategy: If you have multiple cards with balances and are able to put some money toward your debt, prioritize the highest interest rates in order to reduce the total interest expense.Meanwhile, the single most popular form of funding was Paycheck Protection Program loans from the Small Business Administration, used by 30% of small businesses.

"Financially Devastated" - 83% Of NYC Restaurants Unable To Pay July Rent --The state of the New York City restaurant industry is in dire straits. July proved to be another disastrous month for restaurants, bars, and nightlife establishments across the city with a majority unable to pay rent in July, a new survey found.NYC Hospitality Alliance surveyed about 500 owners and operators of eateries in the city, with 83% of respondents indicating they couldn't pay the entire rent in July while 37% paid no rent at all.  "Restaurants and nightlife venues are essential to the economic and social fabric of our city, but they are struggling to survive and absent immediate and sweeping relief so many will be forced to close permanently," said Andrew Rigie, executive director of The Alliance."While complying with the necessary pause, our industry has been uniquely and financially devasted. Small businesses urgently need solutions from government leaders at the city, state, and federal level, inclusive of extending the moratorium on evictions, extending the suspension of personal liability guarantees in leases, pausing commercial rent taxes, providing landlords with needed support, and infusing small businesses with enough cash to weather the storm," Rigie said.To make matters worse, 71% of owners and operators said landlords "would not waive portions of rent due to COVID-19." About 61% said, landlords "would not defer rent payments," while 90% of landlords "would not formally renegotiate leases."Indoor dining in the city remains halted, "outdoor dining service is not generating sufficient revenue to cover rent and other expenses, small business owners in the industry continue to express significant concerns about surviving the pandemic and staying viable in the future," said The Alliance. Through July, OpenTable restaurant data reveals foot traffic at eateries remains depressed.

Gasoline Demand Hits Highest Level Since March -- U.S. gasoline consumption recovered last week to where it stood just before the pandemic forced everyone inside but uncertainty lingers for the oil industry as driving season season approaches its end. Will anyone be driving back to school? Gasoline demand last week increased to 8.715 million barrels-a-day, the highest level for the four-week moving average since March 20, Energy Information Administration data show. “That’s an impressive number,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “It looks like people are finally getting back on the road, especially since we had been seeing a lot of discussion of the second wave of the virus.” More drivers were spotted in California and Texas, the states with the most registered vehicles, Macquarie said in a note this week. Still, demand is off last year’s figure by nearly 1 million barrels a day. That’s the equivalent of taking about 1.5 million pickup trucks off the road. Gasoline isn’t the only road fuel in recovery mode. Product supplied for diesel last week rose to its highest since April 3. Highway miles for trucks are up this year over 2019 with more shoppers turning to online orders. The uptick in consumption has prompted once-moribund refiners to process more crude. Refinery utilization rose to 81% so far in August from 73% in early June. These embers of a recovery may flicker out as summer comes to a close. September will likely bring a drop in gasoline demand figures both monthly and compared to last year with fewer parents driving kids to school, . U.S. Labor Day marks the end of summer travel

 Retail Sales increased 1.2% in July - On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.2 percent from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.7 percent from July 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $536.0 billion,an increase of 1.2 percent from the previous month, and 2.7 percent above July 2019. Total sales for the May 2020 through July 2020 period were down 0.2 percent from the same period a year ago.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.9% in July. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Year-over-year change in Retail Sales Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis. The increase in July was below expectations, however sales in May and June were revised up.

Covid-19 Shortages Continue and Could Get Worse - Yves Smith - The Wall Street Journal has a terrific article on the current state of consumer supplies. The short version, as many of you have been reporting, is many things that were scarce no longer are, like toilet paper and chicken breasts.  I can’t comment personally about other items that got cleaned out due to Covid-19 stockpiling, such as flour and pasta. However, I have yet to see isopropyl alcohol or disinfectant wipes return to area drugstores.  USA Today confirms my impression: Clorox wipes are likely to be scarce through 2021. However, more and more research suggests that the surface cleaning is overdone. According to the Journal, we’re not the only ones thinking this way: As Covid-19 cases continue to rise in certain states, grocers are reporting a new increase in staples purchases that could lead to scarcity. The even-stronger demand for items such as baking ingredients and paper towels has made it tough for manufacturers to produce the items fast enough to keep shelves full.Stores are better supplied than during the lockdown crunch, but not back to the old normal: During the peak shopping spree at the end of March, stores ran out of 13% of their items on average. Now, roughly 10% of items remain out of stock, compared with a normal range of 5% to 7% before the pandemic.That might not seem significant, but leaving shelves 90% full for half a year would cost the supermarket industry some $10 billion in lost revenue, according to research from trade associations.For grocery shoppers, it means that someone with 20 items on their list would be out of luck on two of them. Shopper surveys have shown that if people can’t find what they are looking for, they will try a different store, and the retailer risks losing that customer for good.The Journal also showed types of items still in spotty supply: And as consumers no doubt recall from the way meat prices spiked during the worst of the crunch, supply isn’t the full story. High prices also serve to create a bit of rationing, since budget-crunched customers will buy less or switch to substitutes. Again from the Journal:

America can't afford to ignore the foodservice distribution industry - The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the foodservice distribution industry has been devastating. Foodservice distribution is an enormous yet relatively unknown industry, which before the pandemic, totaled more than $300 billion in annual sales and employed 350,000 Americans in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The industry is bigger than the airline industry, with thinner operating margins. Preserving this essential industry is critical to helping our economy recover. Congress must act now to pass the Providing Liquidity for Uncollectible Sales (PLUS) Act to ensure distributors can continue to provide the support their restaurant customers need to survive this crisis. Foodservice distributors feed America, delivering 8.7 billion cases of food and food-related products annually. They ensure fresh, safe food produced by America’s farmers and manufacturers fills the kitchens, shelves and pantries of our nation’s restaurants, schools, hospitals, entertainment venues, military bases and other public service institutions. In Illinois alone, it’s an $11 billion industry with 570 distribution centers that employ 13,300 people. But the uncertainties of coronavirus including state shutdowns and limited re-openings have pushed the foodservice industry to the brink. Four in ten restaurants have closed their doors completely; some may never re-open. Thousands of schools and universities are going virtual for the school year, and professional sports teams are struggling to keep players on the field, never mind fans in the stands. America cannot fully re-open without a strong foodservice distribution industry. Foodservice distributors serve as the bank for America’s restaurants and play a critical role getting our economy up and running again. Restaurants buy their supplies on payment terms that allow them to generate revenue before the bill comes due. Over the last five months restaurant sales have plummeted, and they have not been able to pay their distributors for purchased inventory. This uncollectible debt has created a significant limitation on distributor liquidity when they need it most to extend credit to their customers so they can restart their businesses. Foodservice distributors currently have more than $12 billion in unpaid debt as a result of this crisis.

BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in July, Core CPI increased 0.6% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.The gasoline index continued to rise in July after increasing sharply in June and accounted for about one quarter of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. ...The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in July, its largest increase since January 1991. ...The all items index increased 1.0 percent for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 0.6-percent rise for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. Overall inflation was above expectations in July. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: July Core at 1.57% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 0.99%, up from 0.65% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.57%, up from 1.19% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.The gasoline index continued to rise in July after increasing sharply in June and accounted for about one quarter of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The energy index increased 2.5 percent in July as the gasoline index rose 5.6 percent. This was partially offset by the food index, which decreased 0.4 percent in July, with the index for food at home declining 1.1 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in July, its largest increase since January 1991. The index for motor vehicle insurance increased sharply in July, as it did the previous month. The indexes for shelter, communication, used cars and trucks, and medical care also increased in July, while the index for recreation declined.The all items index increased 1.0 percent for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 0.6-percent rise for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The food index increased 4.1 percent over the last 12 months, with the index for food at home rising 4.6 percent. Despite increasing in July, the energy index fell 11.2 percent over the last 12 months. Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in July was affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

July Consumer Prices Rise Amid Increased Demand for a Range of Goods, Services – WSJ — U.S. consumer prices rose in July on higher costs for a range of products and services, a sign of firming inflation as demand for goods rebounded following steep declines earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. The consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for everyday items including groceries, medical care and electricity—climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The rise was the second in as many months.. The index also rose 0.6% in June, which was seen as a potential turning point for consumer prices, following declines in March, April and May amid the pandemic’s initial economic fallout. Excluding the often-volatile categories of food and energy, so-called core prices rose 0.6%, compared with a 0.2% increase in June, posting its largest month-to-month increase since January 1991. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.3% increase for the overall consumer-price index, and a 0.2% gain for the core index. Roughly a quarter of the July increase was due to gasoline prices, the Labor Department said, which were up 5.6%. Prices for apparel and used vehicles also rose sharply. Notably, prices for food fell 0.4%, with grocery costs declining 1.1%, following significant increases earlier in the pandemic as Americans stayed at home. The advance in overall consumer prices during July came despite a month when the U.S. saw a resurgence in coronavirus cases, which forced some states to put new restrictions in place aimed at containing the virus. Some states reimposed social distancing measures and business closures as a result. The rise in consumer prices last month aligns with an increase in the producer-price index, a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services. That index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, the largest monthly rise since October 2018.

July Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM - Today's release of the July Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.2% decrease last month. It is at -0.4% year-over-year, up from -0.8% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.5% MoM, up from -0.3% the previous month and is up 0.3% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3% headline and 0.1% core.Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand:The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed a 0.2-percent decline in June and a 0.4-percent advance in May. (See table A.) The July increase is the largest rise since a 0.7-percent advance in October 2018. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.4 percent for the 12 months ended in July.In July, the advance in the final demand index was led by a 0.5-percent rise in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods also moved higher, increasing 0.8 percent.Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.3 percent in July, the same as in June. For the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent, following three straight 12-month declines. More…  The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

 Industrial Production Increased 3.0 Percent in July; Still 8.4% Below Pre-Crisis Level - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Total industrial production rose 3.0 percent in July after increasing 5.7 percent in June; even so, the index in July was 8.4 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output continued to improve in July, rising 3.4 percent. Most major industries posted increases, though they were much smaller in magnitude than the advances recorded in June. The largest gain in July—28.3 percent—was registered by motor vehicles and parts; factory production elsewhere advanced 1.6 percent. Mining production rose 0.8 percent after decreasing for five consecutive months. The output of utilities increased 3.3 percent, as unusually warm temperatures increased the demand for air conditioning. At 100.2 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 8.2 percent lower in July than it was a year earlier.Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 2.1 percentage points in July to 70.6 percent, a rate that is 9.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 6.4 percentage points above its low in April.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up slightly from the record low set last month, and still below the trough of the Great Recession (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 70.6% is 9.2% below the average from 1972 to 2017. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in July to 100.2. This is 8.4% below the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was at consensus expectations, however industrial production in May and June was revised down.

LA Area Port Inbound Traffic up Year-over-year in July  -  Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.5% in July compared to the rolling 12 months ending in June.   Outbound traffic was down 0.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year (January 25th in 2020).   Imports were up 5% YoY in July, and exports were down 3% YoY.

BLS: Job Openings increased to 5.9 Million in June --From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.7 million in June, but was still the second highest level in the series history. The largest monthly increase in hires occurred in May 2020. Total separations increased to 4.8 million. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 1.9 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.4 percent. These changes in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in June to 5.889 million from 5.371 million in May.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 18% year-over-year.Quits were down 25% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings increased in June, but were still down sharply YoY.

Did July’s headline jobs number miss business closures, and so overcount job gains? --A few issues arose with regard to last Friday’s jobs number; in particular, the effect of government jobs in the form of Census and teaching jobs, whether seasonal adjustments are unhelpful at this time; and whether the birth/death model used by the BLS has undercounted job losses (due to increased non-reporting by closed businesses). I’m going to examine this in two posts.  Today I want to compare the BLS payrolls data with the Census’s household survey. Let’s start with the issue of government employment. Since there were lots of layoffs in schools earlier, the lack of new layoffs in July meant that “seasonally” over 200,000 gains of the 1.763 million jobs reported in July were included in the nonfarm payrolls number (Blue in the graph below). When they are taken out, however, you still get a gain of 1.462 million (red): A second issue is whether the BLS has been undercounting job losses due to closed businesses. Let’s look at this together with the issue that the pandemic has rendered the seasonal adjustments counterproductive. Because the way to deal with both is to compare the Census Bureau’s household employment report, and compare both on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. So, all of the graphs below are *not* seasonally adjusted. First, here are nonfarm payrolls (blue) compared with household employment (red) for the past 5 years: There is always a big decline in January, and a secondary one in July. Needless to say, they have both been dwarfed by the effect of the pandemic. But also, notice that both measures have bounced back since April, in roughly equivalent amounts, and both showed gains in July (again, remember these graphs are not seasonally adjusted, so the lack of school layoffs last month is moot). Here is a close-up of the last few months. Again we see that the improvements in both the BLS employer survey and the Census Bureau’s household survey have been comparable: The same shows up in the YoY% measures of both the BLS and Census Bureau data: Finally, let’s compare the monthly % change for both measures over the past 5 years through this past January: Again, note the large January and smaller July declines. In the case of July, it’s not unusual for there to be a one month delay in the Census (red) vs. the BLS (blue) decline. It’s also not unusual at all for there to be a month to month deceleration in job gains in the Census figure. Now let’s show just this past year: Notice that the scale of the % losses and gains is much larger. But the Census and BLS monthly changes are in line with one another. In sum, comparing the Census Bureau’s household report data with the BLS’s employer survey strongly suggests that the official BLS jobs number has not been missing a significant number of job losses due to a spike in business closures.

August Employment Report: Temporary Census Hiring will be Significant -In July, the BLS reported "A July job gain in federal government (+27,000) reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census."The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers: As of the July reference week, there were 50,404 decennial Census temporary workers. As of last week, there were 155,239 temp workers.This is an increase of almost 105,000. This week is the BLS reference week, and it seems likely the number of temporary workers will increase further.This means the August employment report will show a sharp increase in Federal employment. Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying employment trend.The correct adjustment method is to take the headline number and subtract the change in the number of Census 2020 temporary and intermittent workers. For more, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop below one million; labor market still weak - (Reuters) - The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits dropped below one million last week for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, though at least 28 million people are still receiving unemployment checks, indicating the labor market was far from healing. The expiration of a $600 weekly jobless supplement at the end of July likely contributed to the decline in claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday. Reports from payroll scheduling and workforce management firms suggested a decline in employment in early August due to the spread of new COVID-19 cases across the United States. “Unemployment remains a huge problem for the U.S. economy,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh. “It could also be that the expiration of bonus unemployment payments of $600 per week at the end of July has discouraged some potential beneficiaries from applying for unemployment insurance, the expiration may also have encouraged some beneficiaries to leave unemployment and take a job.” Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 228,000 to a seasonally adjusted 963,000 for the week ended Aug. 8. That was the lowest level since mid-March when authorities started shutting down non-essential business to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 1.12 million applications in the latest week. Claims peaked at a record 6.867 million in late March.

Initial and continuing claims: the most “less awful” so far - This morning’s initial and continued jobless claims continue the trend of “less awful” numbers that resumed last week. New jobless claims, which fell to under 1,000,000 for the first time on an un-adjusted basis last week, declined about 150,000 further to 831,856 (red in the graph below), and on an adjusted basis (blue) declined to 963,000, the first time since the pandemic that number was also under 1 million: Continuing claims, on both an un-adjusted (red), and seasonally adjusted (blue) basis, also made new pandemic lows under 16 million, at roughly 15.2 million and 15.5 million respectively: All of these remain at far worse levels than even at their worst during the Great Recession, as shown below in the seasonally adjusted numbers (initial claims, dark blue; continuing claims, light blue): On both an adjusted basis, initial claims peaked at roughly 650,000 during the Great Recession, while their non-adjusted peak came during January, when there is typically a big spike, at roughly 950,000. Continuing claims peaked at roughly 6.5 million on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis, so claims now are roughly 2.5 times that peak. This is progress, so it’s “good” news, and a positive short leading indicator for the economy, but of course, as I have said many times over the past few months, on an absolute basis it is really just “less awful.” 

Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims - McBride - On a monthly basis, in normal times, most analysts focus on initial unemployment claims for the BLS reference week of the employment report. For August, the BLS reference week is August 9th through the 15th (the current week), and initial claims for this week will be released next week.  However, continued claims are probably much more useful now. Continued claims are released with a one week lag, so continued claims for the reference week will be released in two weeks. Continued claims are down 1.5 million from the reference week in July, suggesting some increase in employment in August.   decreased last week to 15,486,000 (SA) from 16,090,000 (SA) the previous week. Continued claims are now down 9.4 million from the peak, suggesting a large number of people have returned to their jobs (as the last three employment reports showed).There are another 10,723,396 people receiving continued PUA. The following graph shows regular initial unemployment claims (blue) and PUA claims (red) since early February. This was the 21st consecutive week with extraordinarily high initial claims, however initial claims have declined over the last two weeks. We are probably seeing some layoffs related to the higher level of COVID cases and also from the end of some Payroll Protection Programs (PPP).

Walmart Is Turning Its Parking Lots Into Drive-In Movie Theaters For Its Customers - In an announcement that will certainly come as welcome news for the homeless and unemployed already living in their cars in Walmart parking lots, the retailer said yesterday that effective August 14, it is going to be kicking off the "Walmart Drive-in movie theater experience". The retailer's "first ever drive-in" movie theater will debut at 160 different Walmart stores across the country starting this month in a partnership with the Tribeca Film Festival. Because showing Disney movies to overweight Walmart customers eating McDonald's in their Dodge pickup trucks is basically synonymous with the elite crowds that attend the Tribeca Film Festival.  Better yet, you know the drive-ins will attract an elite crowd, because Walmart is offering them as "free to Walmart customers". Janey Whiteside, Walmart’s chief customer officer, said: "We recognize the challenges our customers and their families have faced over the last few months, and we wanted to create an experience where they could come together safely to create new memories. The Walmart Drive-in is one small way we’re supporting the communities we serve."The drive-ins will feature filmmakers and surprise guests making appearances at "select showings", the retailer says. The company says the films will include:

COVID-19: A blessing for Bezos and a nightmare for workers - Since the coronavirus was first detected in China in December 2019, nearly 20 million people worldwide have become infected and over 700,000 people have died, including 160,000 in the United States. Over 32 million people in the United States are now unemployed, exceeding records which have stood since the Great Depression.Over that same time, Amazon’s value on the stock market has nearly doubled from $867 billion dollars to $1.61 trillion. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ personal net worth has skyrocketed to $192 billion, including a $13 billion increase during a single day last month. This points to two interconnected processes: the devastating impact of the virus on human life on the one hand, and the engorging of the super-rich on a massive run-up in share values, driven by a massive government bailout on the other. The first reported cases of COVID-19 at Amazon were two workers in Milan, Italy, March 1. Two days later workers in Seattle, Washington, tested positive for the virus. As time elapsed, the virus spread, infecting more and more Amazon workers, with confirmed cases in Germany, Spain, France, Poland, USA, etc. Amazon, which utilizes state-of-the art warehouse robots and surveillance technology, gave its workers surgical masks and gloves which were often recycled as “protection” from COVID-19. Warehouses were not disinfected properly, non-essential items were being shipped, workers worked in cramped conditions; inevitably, many began to show up sick. The anger bubbling up among Amazon workers could no longer be contained and a wave of strikes washed over warehouses and delivery stations around the world in late March and April.  In March and April there were also strikes by Amazon workers in Spain, but the exact dates are unable to be verified. Strike action was planned byPolish workers, but this was halted by the trade unions. Trade unions for German workers began closed negotiations with Amazon, as tensions began to boil within the rank and file, and in late June more than 2,000 Amazon workers in Germany launched a two-day strike in six facilities.  For all of the Amazon workers, from American workers to workers in Germany, the role of the unions has been to contain their fighting spirit, feed illusions of reform, and ultimately tire out workers into accepting Amazon’s terms and conditions of employment. This fact finds clear expression in the “May Day Strike ,” a protest stunt manufactured by the Democratic Party, the trade unions and corporate news media like the Bezos-owned Business Insider.

 Black women with natural hairstyles are more likely to be rated as less competent, less professional in job interviews: research - Black women who wear their hair naturally are less likely to secure job interviews than either Black women with straightened hair or white women, according to research from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. The study, set to be published in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science, asked participants of multiple races to screen potential job applicants and assess their competence and professionalism based on Facebook profiles. The researchers found that participants scored Black women with natural hair lower on professionalism and competence and were less likely to recommend them for interviews. They found similar results when different researchers were shown the same Black woman with different hairstyles, according to CNN. Three of the studies involved participants from the general population, while another compared attitudes in management consulting and advertising, and involved MBA students. Some industries were more likely to discriminate against women with natural hair than others. They were frequently discriminated against for management consulting jobs, but far less so for advertising positions. "This may be because advertising is viewed as a more creative industry than consulting with less rigid dress norms," researchers said.

 17-year-old Chili's hostess attacked by diners for enforcing social distancing - A teenage Chili's hostess in Louisiana is reportedly recovering from injuries after being attacked by dining guests for enforcing social distancing policies at the restaurant. Kelsy Wallace, 17, said the attack occurred Sunday after she told a group of 13 people they could not sit at a single table, citing company COVID-19 measures, local ABC affiliate WBRZ reported. "My general manager tells us we're not supposed to sit a table over 6 because of the coronavirus," Wallace said, adding that since the group had 13, one extra table would still not work for the guests. Wallace said the diners became upset and attacked her before she could reach her manager. "She pushed me. And when she pushed me, all I knew was to push her back. I reacted. That's when her and her daughters, they all came. And they're grown women. I'm 17-years-old. They're like, 20, 30, and the woman that pushed me looked like she was 40," Wallace said. "So I'm standing there, they're on me, beating me," she added. "I'm standing there trying to hit them, trying to get all of them off me. And the lady she takes a wet floor sign and slams it in my eye. And I had blood rushing everywhere." Wallace went to the emergency room after the incident, where she received five stitches above her eye. One of the patrons involved in the tussle also ripped out some of her hair. The diners reportedly left the scene in two separate cars before authorities could arrive, Baton Rouge police said.  Wallace said her biggest surprise was that nobody stepped in to help her during the fight, adding that while she is technically still employed, she would not be returning to the Chili's. "The managers let them walk out. Like, how y'all let them leave like that? I mean, they could have locked the doors until the police came," Wallace said.

 Air Force Helicopter Shot At From Ground Over Virginia, Injuring Crew  - In an almost unheard of and unprecedented scenario, an Air Force helicopter was forced to make an emergency landing in Manassas, Virginia after someone shot at the helicopter from the ground.The incident happened Monday, and military sources are now revealing the dangerous incident, which actually injured a member of the crew. McClatchy details that a UH-1N Huey helicopter which flew out of Joint Base Andrews — where Marine helicopters which routinely fly members of Congress as well as the president are based (in the president's case, Marine One, as well as Air Force One are housed there) — was on a routine training flight after an unknown individual or individuals fired on it from the ground.  Officials at Manassas Regional Airport said they received a call at about 12:20 p.m. alerting them that “a military helicopter was inbound and that paramedics were on the way,” said airport operations officer Richard Allabaugh.A second airport official said the injured Air Force crew member was taken to a local facility for treatment. The helicopter remained at the airport as an investigation was launched into the shooting incident.The FBI immediately dispatched special agents to the area to investigate after the Huey landed at Manassas Regional Airport.

At Least 97,000 Children in the U.S. Tested Positive in Last 2 Weeks of July -  NYTimes - At least 97,000 children in the United States tested positive for the coronavirus the last two weeks of July alone, according to a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association. The report says that at least 338,000 children have tested positive since the pandemic began, meaning more than a quarter have tested positive in just those two weeks.The report comes as parents and education leaders grapple with the challenges of resuming schooling as the virus continues to surge in parts of the country.More than seven out of 10 infections were from states in the South and West, according to the report, which relied on data from 49 states along with Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico and Guam. The count could be higher because the report did not include complete data from Texas and information from parts of New York State outside of New York City.Missouri, Oklahoma, Alaska, Nevada, Idaho and Montana were among the states with the highest percent increase of child infections during that period, according to the report. New York City, New Jersey and other states in the Northeast, where the virus peaked in March and April, had the lowest percent increase of child infections, according to the report.In total, 338,982 children have been infected, according to the report.Not every locality where data was collected categorized children in the same age range. Most places cited in the report considered children to be people no older than 17 or 19. In Alabama, though, the age limit was 24; in Florida and Utah the age limit was 14. The report noted that children rarely get severely sick from Covid-19, but another report, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, highlighted how the threat from a new Covid-19-related condition, called Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children or MIS-C, has disproportionately affected people of color.

97,000 U.S. Kids Test Positive for COVID-19 on the Brink of Schools Reopening --The coronavirus cases surging around the U.S. are often carried by kids, raising fears that the reopening of schools will be delayed and calling into question the wisdom of school districts that have reopened already.A new study found that more than 97,000 children around the country tested newly positive for the virus by the end of July, marking a 40 percent increase in the number of infected children, according to a new reportfrom the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association, as The New York Timesreported. The report says that at least 338,000 children had tested positive through July 30, meaning more than a quarter tested positive in just the two weeks between July 15 and the end of the month.  The eye-popping data that the medical organizations compiled comes during back-to-school season as health officials are trying to understand the effects of the virus on children and the role young people play in its spread. Some schools have begun welcoming crowds back to class and others have had to readjust their reopening plans in response to infections. North Paulding High School near Atlanta, Georgia made headlines for its packed hallways and has abruptly shifted to online instruction after there were nine positive cases in the school — three among staff and six among students, according to CNN. The report cited data from 49 states, New York City, Washington, Puerto Rico and Guam, most of which defined children as younger than 19 years old, though some states defined children as only up to 14, while Alabama defined it as up to 24. While children make up a small fraction of the number of positive coronavirus cases in the U.S., their portion is growing. According to The Washington Post, while children were only 2 percent of cases nationwide in April, they now account for 8.8 percent. The numbers of children affected followed the national trend, with large upticks in the South and Southwest, and much smaller numbers in the Northeast, where the virus is much more in control. New York City, New Jersey and other Northeastern states had the lowest number of childhood infections, according to the report. Seven out of 10 new pediatric cases were reported in southern and western states, according to the paper, as the The Washington Post reported. Northeastern states saw much more limited growth in children's cases. Arizona reported the most cases per 100,000 children, with more than 1,000 on July 30. Louisiana, South Carolina and Tennessee were the only other states with more than 800 cases per 100,000.

Coronavirus testing in Texas plummets as schools prepare to reopen -- Texas' low number of tests and large percentage of positive results suggest inadequacies in the state's public health surveillance effort at a time when school reopenings are certain to increase viral spread, health experts said. The number of Texans being tested for the coronavirus has fallen sharply in recent weeks, a trend that has worried public health experts as officials consider sending children back to school while thousands more Texans are infected each day. In the week ending Aug. 8, an average 36,255 coronavirus tests were administered in Texas each day — a drop of about 42% from two weeks earlier, when the average number of daily tests was 62,516. At the same time, the percentage of tests yielding positive results has climbed, up to 20% on average in the week ending Aug. 8. Two weeks earlier, the average positivity rate was around 14%. On Saturday, the state set a record for its positivity rate, with more than half of that day’s roughly 14,000 viral tests indicating an infection. Taken together, the low number of tests and the large percentage of positive results suggest inadequacies in the state's public health surveillance effort at a time when school reopenings are certain to increase viral spread, health experts said. "Opening the schools is a really complicated problem, and the best thing we can do is get the number of cases down so kids can go back to school safely," said Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at UTHealth School of Public Health in Houston. "There are so many reasons why kids need to be in school, particularly younger kids, but we’re finding out more and more they can get infected, and the concern is them bringing it home and spreading in the community and spreading to teachers. "I think the worst thing would be for schools to open, then close," she said. "That really makes it hard on parents, that unpredictability, and there’s a lot of costs associated with opening the schools safely." The decline in tests may be driven in at least some places by a drop in demand. In Austin, health officials say fewer people are seeking tests through the city’s online portal and at local events. Local officials had been forced in late June to limit testing only to people who were showing symptoms of the coronavirus. Now, they are opening it back up to asymptomatic people.

Georgia teachers and students force temporary closure of North Paulding High School over COVID-19 outbreak - On Sunday, the superintendent of the Paulding County School district in Dallas, Georgia sent an email alerting the parents of North Paulding High School that the school would be closed for in-person instruction on Monday and Tuesday of this week. The superintendent, Dr. Brian Otett, explained in the letter that the school had suffered nine confirmed cases of COVID-19 since reopening one week ago. The cases included three staff members and six students.The cluster of cases emerged as a direct consequence of the reckless decision of the Paulding County Board of Education to reopen schools for in-person instruction amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in the state. It appears that the county opened its schools with almost no protective measures in place.Parents of North Paulding High students reported that they were offered the choice between in-person and virtual learning, but a limit was placed on how many students could do virtual learning. That option was so popular that the limit was reached within a few days. Many families are now on a waiting list, according to the school board. North Paulding High School opened its doors on August 3. The school made national headlines just days later after students posted pictures and videos of their peers walking through crowded hallways, without masks.School administrators responded to the exposure with hostility. Two of the students involved were suspended, including 15-year-old Hannah, who told Buzzfeed that she was found to have violated rules against unauthorized use of smartphones in school hallways. The school principal can also be heard in this leaked audio filethreatening anyone else with “consequences” if he or she posts anything “negative” on social media. The posts went viral on social media, prompting a massive backlash from students, parents, teachers and others in the Dallas area and throughout the country. Only after the school was made the focus of nationwide negative attention were the students reinstated.

Schools can stay open until coronavirus positivity rate hits 25%, Shelby County health department says - Shelby County health officials say they won’t recommend closing schools or returning to a stay-at-home order until 25% of coronavirus tests in the community come back positive — a threshold dramatically higher than other cities across the nation. By contrast, New York City’s mayor has said school buildings must shutter if the positivity rate exceeds 3%, and other school districts have vowed to limit in-person learning when the rate hits 5%. While Shelby County’s guidelines mean that coronavirus infection rates would have to get a lot worse before the health department urges school buildings shut, the majority of students in the county won’t be returning to campuses just yet. That’s because Shelby County Schools is scheduled to begin online Aug. 31 and remain virtual until further notice. The district has not yet indicated what coronavirus case numbers would signal a safe return to school buildings or what would prompt recurring closures. Some local charter schools, private schools, and suburban districts have already begun in-person learning or are planning to do so later this month.

Trump administration doubles down on push to reopen school buildings – Chalkbeat -The Trump administration mounted a pressure campaign last month aimed at getting America’s schools to reopen their doors. To a large extent, it didn’t work.Now, officials are trying again, in a move that might signal that Republican leaders are unlikely to relent in their push to tie additional school funding to physical reopening.At a White House event Wednesday, President Trump and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos continued to make the case that schools must reopen because children benefit from in-person learning and the economy benefits from the de facto child care that schools provide. They cast opposition to reopening as driven by teachers unions, while pushing aside concerns about virus transmission.“For students and their families, they can’t be held captive to other people’s fears or agendas,” said DeVos. “We have got to ensure that families and parents have options that are going to work for their child.”“We cannot indefinitely stop 50 million American children from going to school and harming their mental, physical, emotional, and academic development and inflicting long-term, lasting damage,” Trump said at a Wednesday evening press conference.The comments signal that President Trump continues to see school reopening as key to the country’s, and perhaps his electoral, fortunes. But it’s unclear whether he will find any more success. Most of the country’s largest districts are starting the year virtually, and most parents, teachers, and voters are skeptical of the push to reopen school buildings — even as many worry about child care and the ability of students with disabilities, among others, to get the support they need at home. The administration’s messaging has contributed to a deep political polarization on the issue of reopening, a divide that may have affected which districts reopen buildings. A Brookings Institution analysis found that schools were more likely to open for in-person instruction in areas where Trump got more votes.

NJ Scraps 'In-Person Learning' Order As Unions Push Back; Texas COVID-19 Positivity Rate Nears 25%  -- In a move that shows the power of teachers' unions have to get their way even at the expense of students, NJ Gov. Phil Murphy announced Wednesday that he would scrap his order that children return to classrooms at the beginning of the new school year. This will affect all 2,500 public schools in the state.Certain districts may have "legitimate and documentable reasons" for not meeting state-mandated health and safety standards. Those can "begin their school year in an all-remote fashion," he said.The governor didn’t immediately name any potential districts or estimate how many people might not be able to meet these standards.Trump is now laying out a back to school plan of his own.The decision, announced at a Trenton news conference on Wednesday, comes on day after a powerful group representing school administrators joined with the NJ Education Association, the state's biggest teachers' union, to raise alarms about classroom safety.Meanwhile, Arizona reported 148 new deaths, the most since July 30, and 706 new cases (+0.4%), which is lower than the prior seven-day average of 0.6%. Florida cases accelerated slightly with the state reported a 1.5% increase to 550,901 total cases, up 1.5% from a day earlier, compared with an average increase of 1.3% over the prior 7 days. Texas’s positivity rate surged to a record 23.9% as questions swirled about how a backlog of un-run tests might be impacting the state's COVID numbers. Tests processed has fallen by nearly half in Texas from the states' peak, and though hospitalizations are also on the decline, many are worried that too many cases are going undiagnosed.

Principals call on NYC to delay start of in-person school - As New York City hurtles toward a Sept. 10 school start date, the unions representing both school administrators and teachers are asking the city to delay the start of in-person school until the end of September. Opening in less than one month ignores “dire warnings” from principals and would “disregard” the “well-being of our school communities,” Mark Cannizzaro, president of the Council of School Supervisors and Administrators wrote Wednesday to Mayor Bill de Blasio and Schools Chancellor Richard Carranza. The union, which the city has regularly consulted on its fall scheduling, said last month that the planning process had an “alarming lack of direction.” Schools must submit their individual plans by Friday and then wait for approval, which could mean less than 15 working days to prepare for the arrival of students, Cannizzaro said. On top of that, they are still waiting for guidance for many details about reopening, making the task impossible to complete while also providing assurances that their buildings are safe. “Regrettably, the city started the planning process far too late for them to have any faith or confidence that they can reopen their buildings on September 10th,” Cannizzaro wrote. “Especially given that teachers do not report until September 8th, allowing frighteningly little time for the preparation and training necessary for these unprecedented circumstances.” Separately, nearly three dozen principals in Brooklyn’s District 15 asked the city to phase-in the reopening of schools, starting with a remote-only schedule, according to a letter they addressed to de Blasio, Carranza and Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The Brooklyn principals are calling to have students learn from home through Sept. 18, with pre-recorded lessons only, to give staff time to learn new safety protocols and practice safety procedures, set up and inspect classrooms, and ensure that promised building improvements have actually been made. Schools would also use this time to train staff on trauma-informed instruction. Then, from Sept. 21 to Oct. 18, they would phase-in the children opting for the mix of in-person and at-home learning.

 As NYC’s virtual summer school wraps up, 23% of students never logged on. Here’s what went wrong. -- After the coronavirus threw more than 1 million children out of their school buildings, Mayor Bill de Blasio made a bold promise: Those who struggled most would experience “unprecedented learning” during summer school to help them catch up for fall. The education department scrambled to scale up a centralized online platform called iLearn, which contained pre-packaged digital lessons. At the same time, it began requiring that educators conduct live meetings with students — a break from the spring when no such mandate existed. Officials hoped to use the summer as a testing ground for iLearn as well as for its live instruction requirements.  But summer school was hobbled from the start and never bounced back, according to interviews with over a dozen students, teachers, administrators, and experts. By the final week of the program, at least 23% summer school students who were required or recommended to attend have not logged on a single time, representing almost 27,000 students, according to internal data obtained by Chalkbeat. (This does not include students with disabilities who are entitled to attend school year round.)The rollout raises questions about the city’s ability to support a quality online learning experience as officials prepare for another year dominated by remote instruction. It also may cast a shadow over the fall, as students who were already behind became further disengaged and may be even more distrustful of online learning when they return to school.“The fear is they won’t persist and are just going to decide that online learning has just been too hard,” said Rachel Forsyth who helps supervise school programs for Good Shepherd Services, a non-profit that partners with dozens of city schools.From the moment summer school launched in July, iLearn did not work properly. Widespread technical glitches prevented many students from accessing their classes or assignments, problems that stretched over several weeks of the six-week program. Many students received little direction on how to sign on with usernames and passwords newly mandated from the education department’s central offices. “It was such a choppy beginning — we lost a lot of kids,”   “We were just set up to fail.”

Oklahoma schools reopen amid growing opposition from teachers - Many Oklahoma school districts are set to begin their fall semesters this week with in-person instruction. Statewide, there have been at least 43,962 cases and 605 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, according to aNew York Times database.Teachers across the state have reacted with disgust and anger at the re-opening of schools, which threatens to produce an explosion of new infections and deaths. Many are opting for retirement, rather than risking the illness and possible death caused by the inevitable spread of the virus with schools opening.Districts throughout the state, concerned with the growing danger of a rank-and-file rebellion, are threatening teachers for speaking out. One such warning states: “Not telling anyone what they can and can’t say but want to remind you, if you’re on social media, anything said about the school that’s not good is bad. I assure you that we are doing everything humanly possible to keep everyone safe.”Oklahoma teachers rank second from the bottom nationwide in pay, with the conditions in rural parts of the state particularly bad. Oklahoma, like much of rural America, was hard hit by the 2008 Great Recession. This led to widespread job losses and desperation, leading directly to a surge in methamphetamine addiction and other social ills. This immense crisis impelled teachers to launch a 10-day statewide strike in April 2018 to demand improvements in teacher pay and school funding, one of the major early episodes of a strike wave that began that year among public school teachers. However, as in other states, the unions—including the Oklahoma Education Association (OEA) and the Oklahoma City-American Federation of Teachers (AFT)—shut the struggle down and cut a deal with the state’s Republican governor and state legislature, leaving teacher pay and per-pupil funding levels near the bottom nationally.

 Schools make students sign liability waivers acknowledging risk of death -Many colleges, universities and K-12 schools across the United States have sent letters and emails to parents and students, requiring liability waivers be signed before students can return for in-person classes.Some of the higher education institutions using such waivers include Bates College, the University of New Hampshire, Point Park University in Pittsburgh and St. Xavier University. Universities such as the University of Memphis and Ohio State University sent liability waivers to all student athletes but may extend these waivers to all students.There are also a number of K-12 school districts using these waivers including Florida’s Volusia County, South Carolina’s Berkeley County, the Catholic schools and centers in St. Petersburg and Tampa under superintendent Chris Pastura, and St. Andrew’s Schools in Honolulu, Hawaii. The purpose of these waivers is to exempt schools from liability in the event that students get infected with the coronavirus when they return to campuses and schools in the fall.Some schools and colleges are requiring students and parents to sign forms that directly suggest students will be waiving their right to hold the school liable if they become infected. Other institutions are opting for more subtle agreements that use terms like “informed consent” and “shared responsibility.”In a recent article in Inside Higher Ed, Heidi Li Feldman, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center, stated, “Universities encourage students to think that the universities they are enrolled in are benevolent towards them, that they care about them as people.” Feldman continued: “You cultivate a climate of trust, and in the context of a deadly disease, you’re busy laying the groundwork for your litigation defense.” One such agreement issued by the College of Southern Maryland, a community college in La Plata with over 6,000 students, includes the following language:…by coming to campus, you indicate your understanding of these safety requirements and rules, and you agree to comply with and abide by them.In the interest of complete transparency, CSM wishes to reinforce to students, employees, and visitors that attending, visiting, or working on any CSM campus carries an inherent risk of being exposed to or contracting the coronavirus or COVID-19. By coming onto campus, you indicate your acknowledgement, acceptance, and assumption of these risks.You likewise signal, by returning to a CSM campus, that you understand the contagious nature of the virus, the potential difficulty of identifying it in others, the possibility of exposure to a person infected with COVID-19, and the risk of subsequently being infected with the disease. You further signal your acceptance and assumption of these risks.  Such COVID-19 student agreements imply that the decision to risk one’s life is being made by the student of their own volition and, should a student become infected, the students are at fault for not following the institution’s safety guidelines. As we have noted in a recent article “Universities prepare to blame students for COVID-19 outbreaks,” students are being set up to take the blame when coronavirus outbreaks occur.

Alarming White Opt-Out Rates Have Left Eastside Suburban Schools Segregated at Levels Not Seen Since the 1960s  - Levels of segregation in some Cleveland-area public school districts are now as high as they were before Mayor Carl Stokes was elected, according to a report from South Euclid native and academic Beth Fry. In several inner-ring suburbs, they are even worse. But unlike the 1960s, this racial segregation is not perpetuated by a system that demands that educational buildings and services are inherently separated. Black families are not barred from attending white schools. The white students are simply leaving the local public system entirely, and at an alarming rate that is impossible to not tie to race. Cleveland and its inner-ring suburbs have long suffered from the detrimental impacts of “white flight” to outer suburban and rural areas. Systemic and individual-level racism and classism have cast areas that are predominantly Black as less valued and less deserving of investments in high-quality economic, housing, and educational opportunities. Still, the report indicates that while poor, minority public school districts already face disinvestment due to an unconstitutional funding formula that relies too heavily on property taxes, they also see incredibly high levels of attrition from the white student body. In the city of Cleveland, this white opt-out rate averaged around 70% between 2009-2017. In the East Side suburbs, that rate average was closer to 75%.  The rapid rate of resegregation suggests that many white families are choosing to bypass the local public education systems in the inner-ring suburbs entirely. They’re sending their kids to private schools, moving to other suburbs, or sending their kids to schools in other, whiter communities.The data is damning: Besides Shaker Heights, which has a white opt-out rate of 47%, all other inner-ring east side suburbs have rates higher than 50%. South Euclid-Lyndhurst: 71%. Cleveland Heights-University Heights: 85%. That’s left east side inner-ring suburbs with an average 78% Black enrollment, compared to 4% for west side inner ring suburbs, 67% for the city of Cleveland, and 47% for outer ring east side suburbs.

Big Ten to cancel 2020 college football season — will SEC, ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 be next? --The Detroit Free Press is reporting the cancellation will formally be announced on Tuesday. It’s unclear if any part of the football season will be made up in the spring.NBC’s Dan Patrick said on his radio show that the Big Ten universities voted 12-2 to cancel the upcoming football season. Iowa and Nebraska voted against canceling the season.The remaining four power-five conferences in the NCAA — the SEC, ACC, Pac-12 and Big 12 — have not made any announcements on the status of their 2020 football season.Many college football players have voiced their opinions on wanting to play the 2020 season, with many of them tweeting using the #WeWantToPlay hashtag on Twitter.  Donald Trump has urged for college football to play its season as well. University of Michigan head football coach Jim Harbaugh released a statement in the aftermath of the reports saying he thinks the conference should play the 2020 season. Michigan is part of the Big Ten conference. The news comes after the cancellation of fall 2020 championships for both Division II and Division III. The NCAA Board of Governors on Wednesday directed each division of the NCAA to decide independently by Aug. 21 whether it will be able to conduct championship events safely in fall sports such as soccer, volleyball and lower levels of football during the pandemic.

NCAA head doctor calls state of pandemic 'exceptionally disappointing' -  The NCAA's chief medical officer is expressing his disappointment with the situation that college athletics finds itself in due to the coronavirus pandemic. Dr. Brian Hainline told reporters during a virtual media briefing hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) that deciding whether to hold college sports seasons this fall has been hampered by the resurgence of COVID-19 across the country, saying that the NCAA had hoped that testing capacity and positivity rates around the country would be lower. "That hasn’t happened, and it’s made it very challenging to make decisions," Hainline said. "I don't know where we'll be in the spring, but where we are today is exceptionally disappointing." Carlos Del Rio, one of the two IDSA doctors on the call, echoed Hainline's frustration. "I feel like we have hit the iceberg and we are making decisions about when we should have the band play," Del Rio said, referring to the sinking of the Titanic. He added that the main focus shouldn't be on college sports, but getting the pandemic under control. Del Rio also said that once cities and states across the country report 10 or fewer cases per 100,000 people and have a testing positivity rate of less than 5 percent, hot-button issues such as college sports and reopening schools become more feasible. The Big Ten and the Pac-12 — two of the "Power 5" athletic conferences in NCAA Division I — announced this week that they would be postponing their fall sports seasons, including football, until the spring.

Grim College COVID-19 Rules - Supposedly because of a virus that for most college students is less of a threat to their lives than riding in a car, students at college campuses this fall will be subjected to dystopian controls from required mask wearing and “social distancing” to surveillance via contact tracing and health monitoring.Many prospective and set to return students will see this as an undesirable situation. College enrollment in America has been dropping over the last ten or so years. Make college dreary enough and there can be a big additional drop as this year’s fall semester begins.For an example of the kind of restrictions and surveillance being imposed on students at many university campuses, consider these requirements in the Duke Compact that Duke University is imposing and even wants all students to sign: To comply with requirements from Duke University, and state and local authorities, I will:

• Wear a mask or face covering in all public spaces.
• Maintain appropriate physical distance.
• Wash my hands often.
• Monitor and report my symptoms through the SymMon app, or approved alternatives, before coming to campus.
• Avoid large gatherings.
• Stay home when I feel ill.
• Know and follow safety plans and additional guidance that are specific to my group, workplace or activity.
• Keep confidential all health information I know or learn about others.
• Participate in required COVID-19 testing, contact tracing and health monitoring.
• If instructed, self-isolate for the required duration.
• Get the flu shot and other required vaccinations by designated deadlines.
• Consent to the use of institutional data to identify others who have been in proximity or close contact.
• Accept the benefits and consequences for the conditions of this compact.
• Speak up to share suggestions or concerns by calling 800.826.8109 or completing an online form.

Making it clear that these requirements are not just advisory or aspirational statements, the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) section following the Duke Compact includes these entries: While some minor violations will result in reminders and educational engagement, other flagrant and repeated violations may result in restricting your access to Duke facilities, employment actions or removal from campus. Consult your student, faculty or staff handbooks for further information... We expect all members of the Duke community to be united in protecting ourselves, each other and the community that depends upon us. A signature is required to have access to the campus, and, based on the expectations and requirements of your academic field, refusal to sign and comply with the provisions may impact your student status.

Louisiana Supreme Court says online bar exams will be open-book -The Louisiana Supreme Court on Tuesday announced the state bar exam will be online and open book due to the coronavirus pandemic. During the exam, set to be held remotely on Aug. 24 and Oct. 10, applicants will be allowed to consult outside materials but not other people, the court said in a statement Tuesday. ”The Louisiana Supreme Court Committee on Bar Admissions has worked diligently throughout this pandemic to find workable solutions which will allow applicants the ability to safely sit for the Bar Exam while being mindful of issues which may present themselves that could affect the applicants’ ability to test,” state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bernette Joshua Johnson said. “The Committee on Bar Admissions advised that it is not feasible to administer the remote bar examinations utilizing the current software vendor, therefore today’s Order provides Bar Exam applicants with the opportunity to sit for the Bar Exam without further delay due to conditions presented by the COVID-19 pandemic and possible unexpected technical issues which may have interrupted their remote testing,” she added. The announcement follows a July 22 order allowing for the exam to be held remotely and administrated on two separate days. Applicants will still be required to meet the state bar’s normal character and fitness requirements. State bar exams have adopted various strategies to accommodate the pandemic. In New York, the state Board of Law Examiners canceled it outright. “In light of accelerating public health concerns and continuing governmental restrictions, the Board of Law Examiners has concluded that an in-person bar exam cannot be safely administered on September 9-10, 2020,” bar officials wrote in July. “Participants’ health and safety must remain our top priority and, because conditions have not sufficiently improved, the September exam has been canceled.” Several other states, including Massachusetts, Michigan, Indiana, Maryland and Nevada, will offer the exam online like Louisiana. Oregon, Utah and Washington, meanwhile, will grant some law school graduates “diploma privileges” that allow them to practice without having passed the exam.

Early Look at 2021 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base - The BLS reported this morning:The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 252.636 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). In 2019, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 250.200.The 2019 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).CPI-W was up 1.0% year-over-year in July, and although this is very early - we need the data for August and September - my current guess is COLA will probably increase over 1% this year, but lower than the 1.6% last year, and the smallest increase since 2016.The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2019 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2019. If wages increased the same as in 2018, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $142,700 in 2021, from the current $137,700.Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

 California Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sonia Angell announces resignation amid coronavirus pandemic - -- California Department of Public Health Director and State Health Officer Dr. Sonia Angell announced her resignation effective immediately, state officials confirm.  In an email to her staff Sunday night, Dr. Angell did not give a reason for her resignation.Angell's departure comes a week after a glitch was discovered in the state's data system that caused an under-reporting of new COVID-19 cases in the state.  Sandra Shewry will be appointed as Acting California Department of Public Health Director and Dr. Erica Pan will assume the role of Acting State Public Health Officer, the governor's office says.Angell was appointed the state health officer and California Department of Public Health Director in October 2019.

Report: U.S. child COVID-19 cases surged 40% in last two weeks of July - The U.S. reported more than 97,000 child COVID-19 cases from July 16 to July 30, a 40-percent increase, according to a new report, published by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association, based on publicly reported data from 49 states by the end of July.  The age range for children varied by state, with most states defining children as those up to age of 19 and one state - Alabama - pushing the limit to 24.  Cumulatively, 338,982 U.S. children tested positive for the coronavirus, accounting for 8.8 percent of the total confirmed cases in the country. That means 447 per 100,000 children were infected by the virus, the report showed.    At least 86 children have died since May. Last week, a 7-year-old boy with no pre-existing conditions became the youngest coronavirus victim in Georgia.  The report comes during back-to-school season, as health officials are trying to figure out how the virus affects children and how it's spread among young people. Some schools have begun welcoming crowds back to class and others have had to readjust their reopening plan.  Some U.S. leaders - including President Donald Trump - have said the virus doesn't pose a large risk to children. In July, Trump has urged schools to reopen even as coronavirus cases spiked.  But one recent study suggests teenagers can transmit the virus just as much as adults. Another study said children younger than five carry a higher viral load than adults, raising even more questions about their role in transmission.

COVID-19 Survivors Face Lifetime of Disability - The Australian Medical Association’s (AMA) vice-president Chris Moy says there is growing concern that COVID-19 may have long-term effects on internal organs. Heart disease, lung scarring, diabetes and damage to blood vessels are among the potential side-effects of COVID-19 that have been identified. Australia’s acting chief medical officer, Paul Kelly, also stresses that young people should be mindful that they are at risk from COVID-19 and could potentially suffer a long-term disability if they contract the virus. Doctors warn that 20% to 30% of people who contracted the virus in March and April are still experiencing symptoms:Scientists looking for a “signature” of COVID-19 in infected cases say it could reveal that even patients who have recovered develop disease risks they didn’t have before contracting the virus.The research suggests that abnormalities detected in blood samples of infected patients are linked to diabetes, liver dysfunction, abnormal levels of cholesterol and higher risk of coronary heart disease.The research, to be published shortly by the Australian National Phenome Centre, Addenbrookes Hospital in Cambridge in the UK and other agencies, may flag that COVID-19 infections could trigger a massive increase in the healthcare burden across the planet…“We don’t know yet whether these long-term effects are permanent, but certainly there is evidence of long-term issues with lung damage and damage of the blood vessels around the body including the heart,” Professor Kelly said.“This can be a very severe illness. Don’t take it lightly”…In Australia, young people aged 20 to 29 are the most likely age group to contract the virus… “We are very worried about the long-term effects of this coronavirus,” [Chris Moy] said. “The great fear in this is the unknown nature of this condition, which we haven’t really seen before. This is something that we could pay for later.”  I hope the herd immunity followers and the ‘let it rip’ brigade take note. While the death rate from COVID-19 is relatively low, and mostly impacts the elderly, it’s the longer-term health impacts and costs on the community that are arguably of bigger concern. The below BBC documentary, Surviving the Virus, examines the lasting effects and damage that COVID-19 can do, and makes for sober viewing.

 Long after a Covid-19 infection, mental and neurological effects smolder - Early on, patients with both mild and severe Covid-19 say they can’t breathe. Now, after recovering from the infection, some of them say they can’t think. Even people who were never sick enough to go to a hospital, much less lie in an ICU bed with a ventilator, report feeling something as ill-defined as “Covid fog” or as frightening as numbed limbs. They’re unable to carry on with their lives, exhausted by crossing the street, fumbling for words, or laid low by depression, anxiety, or PTSD. As many as 1 in 3 patients recovering from Covid-19 could experience neurological or psychological after-effects of their infections, experts told STAT, reflecting a growing consensus that the disease can have lasting impact on the brain. Beyond the fatigue felt by “long haulers” as they heal post-Covid, these neuropsychological problems range from headache, dizziness, and lingering loss of smell or taste to mood disorders and deeper cognitive impairment. Dating to early reports from China and Europe, clinicians have seen people suffer from depression and anxiety. Muscle weakness and nerve damage sometimes mean they can’t walk.  Doctors have concerns that patients may also suffer lasting damage to their heart, kidneys, and liver from the inflammation and blood clotting the disease causes. No one can yet tell patients with neurological complications when, or if, they’ll get better, as doctors and scientists strive to learn more about this coronavirus with each passing day. Their guideposts are the experience they’ve gained treating other viruses and delirium after ICU stays, sparse results from brain autopsies, and interviews with patients who know something is just not right.  “We would say that perhaps between 30% and 50% of people with an infection that has clinical manifestations are going to have some form of mental health issues,” . “That could be anxiety or depression but also nonspecific symptoms that include fatigue, sleep, and waking abnormalities, a general sense of not being at your best, not being fully recovered in terms of the abilities of performing academically, occupationally, potentially physically.”

Coronavirus: latest Hong Kong pets to test positive for Covid-19 are Scottish shorthair cat, Yorkshire terrier dog Two more family pets tested positive for Covid-19, pushing the total number of confirmed infections among Hong Kong animals to eight so far, the authorities reported on Wednesday. The latest cases were a Scottish shorthair cat and a Yorkshire terrier that lived in Tsuen Wan and Sham Shui Po, respectively. Their owners were close contacts of confirmed Covid-19 patients, according to the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD). “When the owners were found to be close contacts of confirmed Covid-19 cases, the cat and the dog were sent for quarantine at the AFCD on July 31,” said the department in a statement. “Samples collected from the cat and the dog by the department tested positive for the Covid-19 virus. However, neither of the animals has shown any symptoms at present. The AFCD will continue to closely monitor them and conduct repeated testing.”Hong Kong reported the world’s first known case of Covid-19 infection in a pet in late February. The animal, which later died of seemingly unrelated causes, was a 17-year-old Pomeranian that belonged to a confirmed Covid-19 patient. Another four cats and one dog subsequently tested positive for the novel coronavirus. The AFCD recently opened a new animal quarantine site in Sha Tin after its facility at the Hong Kong Port at the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge was flooded with pets amid the city’s third wave of infections.

Revealed: UK’s rapid Covid test not yet approved by regulators  - One of two 90-minute rapid coronavirus tests bought by the UK government and announced on Monday has yet to be approved by regulators, while no data on the accuracy of either has been published, the Guardian has learned. The test, from Oxford Nanopore, a young biotech company spun off from Oxford University, has not yet gained a CE mark. Before Covid-19, Oxford Nanopore had been involved only in research, not tests for patients.  About 80 other molecular tests had a CE mark as early as April. DnaNudge was granted an emergency exemption by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency to be used without the CE mark.  Oxford Nanopore and DnaNudge were first name-checked by the health secretary, Matt Hancock, in a Downing Street press conference on 1 May, the day he announced his target for reaching 100,000 tests per day in England had been met. As early as 22 April, Hancock’s department signed an initial contract with DnaNudge for £3.3m, followed by one for £161m on 1 July. It was not until 3 August that the government announced it was buying “millions of ground-breaking rapid coronavirus tests” from the two companies, which would be “rolled out to hospitals, care homes and labs across the UK to increase testing capacity ahead of winter”. They would also detect flu. “We’re using the most innovative technologies available to tackle coronavirus. Millions of new rapid coronavirus tests will provide on the spot results in under 90 minutes, helping us to break chains of transmission quickly,” said Hancock. “I am hugely grateful for the excellent work done by DnaNudge and Oxford Nanopore to push forward these life-saving innovations in coronavirus testing.” Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at Birmingham University who is conducting an evaluation of such tests, said he had not come across either of them when the government announcement was made. “It looks like a decision that was raced through. They are making decisions before anybody knows the results as to how well they work,” said Deeks. “They are not making clear comparisons with the alternatives, which means that British people might not get the best tests.”

Health Care Workers of Color Nearly Twice as Likely as Whites to Get COVID-19 - Health care workers of color were more likely to care for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, more likely to report using inadequate or reused protective gear, and nearly twice as likely as white colleagues to test positive for the coronavirus, a new study from Harvard Medical School researchers found.The study also showed that health care workers are at least three times more likely than the general public to report a positive COVID test, with risks rising for workers treating COVID patients.Dr. Andrew Chan, a senior author and an epidemiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, said the study further highlights the problem of structural racism, this time reflected in the front-line roles and personal protective equipment provided to people of color.“If you think to yourself, ‘Health care workers should be on equal footing in the workplace,’ our study really showed that’s definitely not the case,” said Chan, who is also a professor at Harvard Medical School.The study was based on data from more than 2 million COVID Symptom Study app users in the U.S. and the United Kingdom from March 24 through April 23. The study, done with researchers from King’s College London,was published in the journal The Lancet Public Health. Lost on the Frontline, a project by KHN and The Guardian, has published profiles of 164 health care workers who died of COVID-19 and identified more than 900 who reportedly fell victim to the disease. An analysis of the stories showed that 62% of the health care workers who died were people of color. They include Roger Liddell, 64, a Black hospital supply manager in Michigan, who sought but was denied an N95 respirator when his work required him to go into COVID-positive patients’ rooms, according to his labor union. Sandra Oldfield, 53, a Latina, worked at a California hospital where workers sought N95s as well. She was wearing a less-protective surgical mask when she cared for a COVID-positive patient before she got the virus and died.The study findings follow other research showing that minority health care workers are likely to care for minority patients in their own communities, often in facilities with fewer resources, said Dr. Utibe Essien, a physician and assistant professor of medicine with the University of Pittsburgh. Those workers may also see a higher share of sick patients, as federal data shows minority patients were disproportionately testing positive and being hospitalized with the virus, Essien said.

Racial Disparity in COVID-19 Deaths: Seeking Economic Roots in Census Data -- Yves here. This article contains an important preliminary finding about Covid-19. Higher death rates don’t appear to be the result of disadvantaged access to health care, but to higher infection rates, due to working in crowded “essential” jobs and what the author calls “residential density”. That makes sense since doctors can’t do all that much if someone who contracts Covid-19 gets a severe case. The most effective remedy seems to be administering oxygen. Originally published at VoxEU: In the US, COVID-19 tends to magnify inequalities by disproportionately hitting minorities, particularly African Americans, who suffer from higher COVID-19 mortality rates. Higher rates of infection appear to be the cause rather than factors related to treatment. Using an indirect approach, this column uses census data to identify the socioeconomic factors that cause different racial groups to be differentially exposed to the virus. Very strong racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality rates are seen for African-American and First Nations populations. Occupation, income, poverty rates, or access to healthcare insurance appears to matter little. Pre-COVID-19 use of public transport, however, may be a significant factor.

Nursing homes grapple with a dual crisis: preparing for hurricane season amid the Covid-19 pandemic - Nursing homes face an impossible decision during hurricane season this year — whether or not to evacuate their residents amid the Covid-19 pandemic, risking the health and well-being of their patients and staff in the process.Even in normal times, evacuation decisions are tough: Research shows that moving frail residents can exacerbate already burdensome health conditions and increase hospitalizations. But failing to evacuate can leave residents vulnerable to power outages, flooding, and even death. This year, as the coronavirus pandemic rages across the Southeast in particular, that decision is even harder — hospitals are already overburdened and social distancing isn’t necessarily possible in evacuation vans or temporary shelters. Nursing home residents are also far more vulnerable to Covid-19 than the general population.Federal rules require nursing homes to develop emergency preparedness plans annually, and to train their staff on them — but both the thoroughness of the plans and the training behind them vary from facility to facility and year to year, experts told STAT. And given the extra burdens on nursing home staff during the last six months, at least one health workers union is concerned that some of the preparations so far aren’t enough to keep patients and staff safe. “We have been so entangled with all of the pandemic issues that the conversation never took place,” said Jude Derisme, the vice president of the health care union 1199 SEIU, which represents 400,000 working and retired health workers along the East Coast, including in Florida. “Where are they going to go? What is the process?”

Covid Chasers: The Nurses Fighting Coronavirus From Hot Spot to Hot Spot [Video] -- Traveling nurses are offsetting staffing shortages in hospitals around the U.S. where Covid-19 is surging. Four nurses give viewers an intimate look into the mental and physical toll the work is having on them five months into the pandemic.

Eli Lilly Studies Experimental Covid-19 Drug in Nursing Homes – WSJ Eli Lilly & Co. has started a study exploring whether its experimental Covid-19 drug can prevent infections among vulnerable residents and staff at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.Indianapolis-based Lilly said Monday that it is testing its antibody-based drug in senior homes that have had a recently diagnosed case of Covid-19, putting residents and staff at high risk of exposure.The study, which aims to enroll up to 2,400 subjects, will track whether Lilly’s drug reduces the rate of infection and disease in the weeks after dosing. Lilly has been exploring whether the drug, code-named LY-CoV555, could treat other kinds of Covid-19 patients. Studies already under way aretesting whether the drug is safe for hospitalized Covid-19 patients, and whether it can clear viral loads and keep patients with milder disease out of the hospital.The company has said that if testing is successful, its drug could get government approval by the end of the year.Nursing homes and other senior-care facilities have been hit hard by the new coronavirus, accounting for a large percentage of deaths during the pandemic. In recent weeks, the resurgence of the virus in Sunbelt states, which initially spread among younger people, has shown signs of reaching the elderly in care homes.

Gates Foundation Teams Up With Vaccine Maker To Produce $3 Covid-19 Shots -- The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation said it is backing the world’s largest vaccine maker, Serum Institute of India, to churn out 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine for poorer countries and price them at less than $3.  The move comes as governments around the world, including the U.S. and U.K., strike vaccine production deals with the manufacturers of a handful of promising, late-stage vaccine development projects.The Gates Foundation as well as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance—an organization which helps negotiate and finance vaccines for poor countries—said they would back privately held Serum Institute, or SII, to speed up the manufacturing of Covid-19 vaccine doses for the developing countries once any are proven effective. SII is one of several contracted manufacturers already tapped by AstraZeneca AZN -0.05% PLC to make a vaccine in development at the University of Oxford.  The Pune, India-based SII is the go-to vaccine supplier for the World Health Organization and others and produces 1.5 billion doses of other vaccines every year, making it the largest in the world by volume. The three organizations said the collaboration will help ensure that lower and middle-income countries won’t be forgotten if a coronavirus vaccine is found.  “Researchers are making good progress on developing safe and effective vaccines for Covid-19,” said Bill Gates in a statement. “But making sure everyone has access to them, as soon as possible, will require tremendous manufacturing capacity and a global distribution network.” Indian drug giant SII is little-known outside the vaccine world. It had already announcedplans to make and distribute a billion doses of Oxford’s yet-to-be approved coronavirus vaccine. Oxford has previously agreed with AstraZeneca, the U.K. based pharmaceutical giant, to coordinate the global production of the vaccine. AstraZeneca, in turn, agreed that SII would be the main contract manufacturer for low- and middle-income countries if the vaccine proves safe and effective.  With some vaccines in late-stage testing, drugmakers have been signaling how much they might charge initially, with prices spanning from several dollars a dose to more than $70 for a multiple-dose course. Oxford has specifically stipulated any successful vaccine it creates should be sold at cost during the pandemic.

Bill Gates: 'We'd be lucky' to have coronavirus vaccine before end of 2020 - Microsoft founder Bill Gates said in a new interview that the U.S. would be “lucky” to have a coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year. The first vaccines, Gates told Bloomberg, “won’t be ideal in terms of its effectiveness against sickness and transmission. It may not have a long duration, and it will mainly be used in rich countries as a stopgap measure.” “We’d be lucky to have much before the end of the year. But then, in 2021, a number of other vaccines are very likely to get approved,” he added. “With so many companies working on it, we can afford quite a few failures and still have something with low cost and long duration.” Asked whether such a vaccine should be mandatory, Gates cautioned that imposing such a requirement “can often backfire.” However, he added, “you might say that if you’re going to work in an old-folks home or have any exposure to elderly people, it would be required.” Gates also expressed optimism that further therapeutic innovations would lead to a lower death rate even before a vaccine is finalized. However, he said, “the true end will come from the spread of natural infections and the vaccine giving us herd immunity. For rich countries, that will be sometime next year, ideally in the first half.” Asked by the publication whether “we’re going to be OK,” Gates responded: “Certainly.” “We’re lucky this one wasn’t a more fatal disease,” he added. Gates on Sunday told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that the U.S. response to the virus had been hamstrung by “testing insanity.” “It’s mind-blowing that you can’t get the government to improve the testing because they just want to say how great it is,” he said. “I’ve said to them, look, have a [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] website that prioritizes who gets tested. Don’t reimburse any test where the result goes back after three days. You’re paying billions of dollars in this very inequitable way to get the most worthless testing results in the world.”

CDC director warns of 'worst fall' in history if people don't follow COVID-19 guidelines  -If Americans don't follow coronavirus prevention measures such as wearing masks and social distancing, the country could be in for its "worst fall" in history, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned Thursday. During an interview with WebMD, CDC Director Robert Redfield said a virus surge, along with the upcoming flu season, could create the “worst fall” that “we’ve ever had." Colder weather in the fall will likely drive more people indoors, where health experts say COVID-19 spreads more easily. Coinciding flu and COVID-19 outbreaks could overwhelm hospitals and drain resources, threatening lives and the response to the pandemic. Redfield said the CDC is urging people to get a flu shot, and the agency has purchased an extra 10 million doses of the vaccine — compared with the typical 500,000 — to make sure states have enough to cover uninsured adults. "I'm trying to tell the American public, please don't leave this important accomplishment of American medicine on the shelf," Redfield said. "We're going to have COVID in the fall, we're going to have flu in the fall," he added, saying if people get vaccinated against the flu, they could potentially be freeing up a hospital bed for someone infected with COVID-19. Redfield said conditions will depend on whether people follow the guidelines: wearing face masks, staying six feet away from others, washing hands often with soap and warm water and avoiding large crowds, especially indoors. “I’m not asking some of America to do it — we all have to do it,” he said.

Facebook removed seven million posts in second quarter for false coronavirus information - - Facebook said on Tuesday it removed 7 million posts in the second quarter for sharing false information about the novel coronavirus, including content that promoted fake preventative measures and exaggerated cures. It released the data as part of its sixth Community Standards Enforcement Report, which it introduced in 2018 along with more stringent decorum rules in response to a backlash over its lax approach to policing content on its platforms. The world’s biggest social network said it would invite proposals from experts this week to audit the metrics used in the report, beginning in 2021. It committed to the audit during a July ad boycott over hate speech practices. The company removed about 22.5 million posts with hate speech on its flagship app in the second quarter, a dramatic increase from 9.6 million in the first quarter. It attributed the jump to improvements in detection technology. It also deleted 8.7 million posts connected to “terrorist” organizations, compared with 6.3 million in the prior period. It took down less material from “organized hate” groups: 4 million pieces of content, compared to 4.7 million in the first quarter. The company does not disclose changes in the prevalence of hateful content on its platforms, which civil rights groups say makes reports on its removal less meaningful.

Alyssa Milano hospitalized due to 'long hauler' symptoms of COVID-19  -- Actress Alyssa Milano said Saturday that she was hospitalized for complications due to COVID-19 in April and that she still had symptoms of the disease months later. “I was acutely sick with Covid-19 in April. I still have many symptoms,” the actor and activist said in a tweet to her 3.7 million followers on Saturday. “I am what they call a ‘long hauler.’” “Last night, I had real heaviness in my chest. I went to the ER just to make sure it wasn’t a blood clot. Thankfully, it wasn’t," she added. “This virus sucks. Please take it seriously.” Milano, 47, also said she'd lost some of her hair from having the coronavirus. “Thought I’d show you what #Covid19 does to your hair,” she wrote. “Please take this seriously.” The revelation comes as Milano wrote last week that "everything hurt" from the novel coronavirus after being sick for two weeks. "This was me on April 2nd after being sick for 2 weeks. I had never been this kind of sick," Milano wrote. "Everything hurt. Loss of smell. It felt like an elephant was sitting on my chest. I couldn’t breathe. I couldn’t keep food in me. I lost 9 pounds in 2 weeks. I was confused. Low grade fever. And the headaches were horrible. I basically had every Covid symptom."

Coronavirus Found on Frozen Food Imported to China. Should You Be Worried? - Imported frozen food in three Chinese cities has tested positive for the new coronavirus, but public health experts say you still shouldn't worry too much about catching the virus from food or packaging. In the last four days, the virus turned up on Brazilian chicken wings in Shenzhen, packaging for Ecuadorian shrimp in Wuhu and imported seafood packaging in Yantai, NBC News reported."All the citizens should be cautious in buying imported frozen meat products and aquatic products in recent days," the Shenzhen Municipal Health Commission said Thursday when it announced its findings about the chicken wings. However, the commission traced and tested everyone who had come in contact with the chicken, and no one tested positively for COVID-19. And the World Health Organization (WHO) has advised people not to worry about catching the virus from their food."People should not fear food, or food packaging or processing or delivery of food," WHO head of emergencies programme Mike Ryan said in a briefing, as Reuters reported. "There is no evidence that food or the food chain is participating in transmission of this virus. And people should feel comfortable and safe." Yale disease ecologist Brandon Ogbunu agreed. He pointed out that the packaging tests only detect virus genetic material, or RNA. "This is just detecting the signature that the virus has been there at some point," he told The New York Times. To prove the virus on the packaging was still infectious, researchers would have to prove it could reproduce itself in a lab. It is also unlikely the virus would survive the freezing and thawing process in tact. This echoes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines about the virus and food. "Coronaviruses, like the one that causes COVID-19, are thought to spread mostly person-to-person through respiratory droplets when someone coughs, sneezes, or talks," the CDC wrote July 25. "It is possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, including food or food packaging, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. However, this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads." Still, New Zealand is now investigating whether frozen food packages could be the cause of a new outbreak in the country that broke a more than 100 day streak of no new cases, Newsweek reported. One of the cases was connected to a worker who handled imports at a frozen food storage plant.

America's window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing - The United States has a window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 before things get much, much worse.That window is rapidly closing. And the country seems unwilling or unable to seize the moment.Winter is coming. Winter means cold and flu season, which is all but sure to complicate the task of figuring out who is sick with Covid-19 and who is suffering from a less threatening respiratory tract infection. It also means that cherished outdoor freedoms that link us to pre-Covid life — pop-up restaurant patios, picnics in parks, trips to the beach — will soon be out of reach, at least in northern parts of the country.Unless Americans use the dwindling weeks between now and the onset of “indoor weather” to tamp down transmission in the country, this winter could be Dickensianly bleak, public health experts warn.  It is possible, of course, that some vaccines could be approved by then, thanks tohistorically rapid scientific work. But there is little prospect that vast numbers of Americans will be vaccinated in time to forestall the grim winter Osterholm and others foresee.  Human coronaviruses, the distant cold-causing cousins of the virus that causes Covid-19, circulate year-round. Now is typically the low season for transmission. But in this summer of America’s failed Covid-19 response, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is widespread across the country, and pandemic-weary Americans seem more interested in resuming pre-Covid lifestyles than in suppressing the virus to the point where schools can be reopened, and stay open, and restaurants, movie theaters, and gyms can function with some restrictions.  “We seem to be choosing leisure activities now over children’s safety in a month’s time. And I cannot understand that tradeoff.”  While many countries managed to suppress spread of SARS-CoV-2, the United States has failed miserably. Countries in Europe and Asia are worrying about a second wave. Here, the first wave rages on, engulfing rural as well as urban parts of the country. Though there’s been a slight decline in cases in the past couple of weeks, more than 50,000 Americans a day are being diagnosed with Covid-19. And those are just the confirmed cases. To put that in perspective, at this rate the U.S. is racking up more cases in a week than Britain has accumulated since the start of the pandemic.

Why is the US doing less and less COVID-19 testing? -On June 20, US President Donald Trump boasted of having told public health officials to reduce the number of tests for COVID-19, the disease that has infected 5.2 million Americans and killed over 166,000 since the start of the year. “I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down,” Trump declared.Three days later Trump added, “Cases are going up in the US because we are testing far more… With smaller testing we would show fewer cases!”Top US public health officials immediately sought to downplay Trump’s comments, declaring that the US policy was to expand, not decrease, the amount of testing. But without any serious explanation by the government, the number of tests being done every day in the United States has dropped significantly over the past two weeks. On July 24, the United States conducted 926,876 tests, according to the COVID Tracking Project. But that figure had dropped to just 668,546 last Saturday. The average number of daily tests conducted fell from 809,200 in the week ending July 26, to 712,112 last week, a decline of 12 percent. At the same time, tests are often taking over a week to return, making them all but useless in tracking down and isolating those that are infected before the pandemic spreads even further. According to internal data from Quest diagnostics obtained by CNN, “the total average turnaround time for results was 8.4 days.” Public health experts say the level of testing in the US is far too low to contain the disease. An analysis from Ashish Jha and his team at the Harvard Global Health Institute recently showed that it would take 1.2 million tests per day, with results back in time to act on them, to stop the number of daily new infections from increasing. It would take 4.3 million tests per day, according to Jha, to actually suppress the pandemic. This is more than six times the current level of testing and more than four times the proclaimed goal of the Trump administration, which had been to reach one million coronavirus tests per day. Amid this massive shortage, US officials have admitted they are prioritizing tests for “certain people.” In particular, the wealthy and well-connected are able to take tests and get results within a day, while for ordinary workers results can take up to a week or more, if they are able to get them.

‘This is unstoppable’: America's Midwest braces itself for a Covid-19 surge - Three months ago, the Republican governor of Missouri chose not to wear a mask in a shop, because he said he wasn’t going to let the government tell him what to do. Mike Parson visited a hardware store to celebrate its reopening after he lifted Missouri’s coronavirus lockdown over the objections of health professionals and mayors of major cities.Parson said the worst of the pandemic was past and the economic impact of the shutdown was worse than the virus. As for masks, the governor dismissively claimed “there was a lot of information on both sides” over whether to wear one so he wasn’t going to require people to do so.Three months later, Covid-19 is surging in Missouri and in many other parts of the Midwest that imagined they had escaped the worst of the pandemic.Health specialists predict a sharp increase in deaths across the region in the coming weeks that will be made significantly worse in some states by the politicians who followed Donald Trump’s lead in undermining medical advice and in questioning the value of masks.Anthony Fauci, the president’s lead coronavirus expert, recently warned the Midwest's political leaders to follow the science.“Some states are not doing that,” he said. “We would hope that they all now rethink what happens when you don’t adhere to that. We’ve seen it in plain sight in the southern states that surged.”Coronavirus deaths in the Midwest remain a fraction of the nearly 160,000 recorded during the pandemic across the US. But Missouri is second only to Oklahoma in the number of new positive tests for the virus over the past two weeks. The state has recorded more deaths than Japan and several European countries, and more new cases per day than Germany. Earlier this week, the White House coronavirus task force named Kansas City as a primary area of concern.

Thousands of bikers heading to South Dakota rally to be blocked at tribal land checkpoints - Thousands of bikers heading to South Dakota’s 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally will not be allowed through Cheyenne River Sioux checkpoints, a spokesman for the Native American group said on Saturday.The decision to prevent access across tribal lands to the annual rally, which could attract as many as 250,000 bikers amid fears it could lead to a massive, regional coronavirus outbreak, comes as part of larger Covid-19 prevention policy. The policy has pitted seven tribes that make up the Great Sioux Nation against federal and state authorities, which both claim the checkpoints are illegal. A duty officer for the Cheyenne River Sioux told the Guardian on Saturday that only commercial and emergency vehicles will be let through the checkpoints onto reservation land. A number of bikers had tried to enter but had been turned back, they said. Other reservations in the region, including the Oglala Sioux, were also turning away bikers that had attempted routes to Sturgis that pass through sovereign land. Under Cheyenne River tribalguidelines non-residents driving non-commercial out-of-state vehicles are never allowed through the reservation. During the rally, non-commercial vehicles with South Dakota plates are also not allowed through.The clampdown comes as fears mount that mask-free bikers visiting Sturgis for the largest gathering of people since the start of the Covid-19 epidemic could spread the virus to tribal groups that are already experiencing a rise in cases.Oglala Sioux recorded 163 cases last week, while the Cheyenne River Sioux has seen cases rise to 79, accordingto the tribe’s website. The restrictions come as local law enforcement reported a convergence of bikers from all directions. According to reports, many bikers heading for Sturgis expressed defiance at rules and restrictions that have marked life during the coronavirus pandemic.

CA’s top health official: Glitch fixed but there’s a backlog of up to 300,000 records - California Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said Friday the state's coronavirus pandemic is improving and the downward trends are real, despite a technical glitch in the data-reporting system that caused a lag in collecting test information for days. Ghaly noted that hospitalizations and ICUs continue to drop, and these are independent of the broken computer reporting system. "We do feel confident in the trend and believe the trend has been stabilizing and coming down," said the state's top health official at a press briefing. "The hospital and death data is collected and reported in a different manner." The data issue has been fixed, but created a backlog of 250,000 to 300,000 records that Ghaly said will be processed in the next 24 to 48 hours. "Those are test results," he said. "We don’t know how many are positive or how many are negative." He said some of those records could be from lab tests for other illnesses, though he suspects the majority are COVID-19 test results. What's more, the records will go through a process to eliminate any duplicates. The state will be sorting records through the weekend and sharing new information with the public as it becomes available. "Addressing this has been our top priority over the last 72 hours," said Ghaly.

Florida’s confirmed COVID-19 total surpasses 532,800 with 6,229 additional cases - Florida’s Department of Health on Sunday confirmed 6,229 additional cases of COVID-19, pushing the state’s known total to 532,806. There were also 77 Florida resident deaths announced, bringing the statewide resident death toll to 8,186. There were no new non-resident deaths announced, leaving the non-resident death toll at 129. Throughout the pandemic, the newly confirmed cases reported on Sundays have tended to be lower than the other days of the week because fewer people work in labs and enter data on the weekends.Sunday also saw the lowest number of newly confirmed deaths announced since Monday when 73 deaths were reported.

 Florida Sheriff Bans Deputies From Wearing Masks as County Sets Daily Record for COVID-19 Deaths - A sheriff in Florida is under fire for deciding Tuesday to ban his deputies from wearing face masks while on the job—ignoring the advice of public health experts about the safety measures that everyone should take during the coronavirus pandemic as well as the rising Covid-19 death toll in his county and state.Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods' email to his deputies announcing the mask ban was first reported by the local Ocala Star-Banner, which noted that the county "set a single-day record on Tuesday for the most deaths related to Covid-19, with 13 more deaths reported," bringing the total to 102.Various outlets across the nation then picked up the story on Wednesday—including the Washington Post, which obtained a copy of Woods' email and pointed out that Florida also set a record in deaths related to Covid-19 on Tuesday. At least 277 deaths were recorded statewide, according to the Post.The Post reported that Florida has seen over 542,000 cases and 8,600 deaths out of the nation's total 5.15 million cases and 162,000 deaths. As infections in Florida have soared in recent weeks, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has been widely condemned for rushing to lift restrictions.Although some local and state leaders in other parts of the country have implored police officers to cover their faces while on duty during the crisis or even issued face mask requirements and punished law enforcement officials for refusing to comply, DeSantis has not mandated masks for anyone. But Woods, in his email, prohibited his officers from wearing masks, with limited exceptions for those who are in a local courthouse, hospital, jail, or public school, or otherwise directly interacting with people suspected of being infected with the virus. As the Star-Banner reported:

Coronavirus Grips Midwest Rural Areas That Had Been Spared – WSJ - The coronavirus hit Kati Finn and six girlfriends after they went to a winery in northwestern Ohio last month where they played a game called “Name That Tune” with about 90 other people. Within days, 71 people from the event tested positive for Covid-19. The event helped give rural Henry County, with 28,000 residents, the state’s highest rate of Covid-19 cases on a per capita basis in late July.As the number of new coronavirus cases has dropped nationally over the past week, the virus appears to be taking hold in some corners of Midwestern states that had largely escaped it. Cases are spreading more rapidly in some counties outside a metro area, compared with those in one. In Ohio, new cases dropped 14% over the past two weeks, but several mostly rural counties, including Champaign County, now have some of the highest rates of new infections recorded over the past few weeks. Unlike this spring, when the virus spread in hot spots such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes and prisons, this time much of the new cases in rural areas appear to be occurring through community contacts, and that is worrying to health officials because such transmission is harder to trace and contain.The new path of the virus suggests that complacency, shutdown fatigue and the lure of summer are combining to allow the virus to sweep through rural parts of the country that had previously been spared, health officials say.In Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Illinois, the weekly change in Covid-19 cases, a measure of the increase in infection, has been higher in nonmetropolitan counties, compared with those in metro areas in recent weeks, according to an analysis of data tracked by Johns Hopkins University. In the past week, the weekly change in cases in Wisconsin metropolitan counties began to surpass nonmetropolitans, driven by such counties as Oconto and Pierce. For much of the spring, cases in those states had been rising faster in metropolitan areas.

COVID-19 Update: August 10th Edition -As of Friday, August 7, data from the Covid Tracking Project showed that the 7-day average (smoothed) number of new U.S. daily cases fell to 54,008, a 15% decrease relative to 63,240 the previous Friday. The smoothed percent of cases testing positive fell to 7.5% from 8.0% one week earlier. The smoothed number of deaths in the U.S. fell 5%, from 1113 one week earlier to 1053 last Friday. Here in Texas, the number of smoothed daily cases fell 2% between July 31 and August 7, while the smoothed number of daily deaths fell from 341 to 218. The smoothed percent of people testing positive rose from 10.3% on July 31st to 13.3% last Friday. More than 107 million American adults are obese, and researchers are worried that a COVID-19 vaccine will be less effective for obese people. Vaccines engineered to protect the public from influenza, hepatitis B, tetanus and rabies can be less effective in obese adults, who have weaker immune systems.  Pakistan, with a population of 200 million, was down to 727 new cases on August 5th. Their success sharply contrasts with their neighbors Iran and India, which each are seeing 40,000 or 50,000 new cases each day and rising. The success is attributed to strong public health messaging. Health care workers of color were more likely to care for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, more likely to report using inadequate or reused protective gear, and nearly twice as likely as white colleagues to test positive for the coronavirus, a new study from Harvard Medical School researchers found. A new study in JAMA Internal Medicine found that asymptomatic Covid-19 patients in Korea had similar viral loads as symptomatic patients. This finding indicates that asymptomatic people are likely to be infectious to others, which previously was believed based on anecdotal evidence. Researchers believe Covid-19 is unlikely to cause birth defects. However, doctors are still closely watching pregnancies of mothers-to-be that tested positive, especially if a woman tested positive early in the pregnancy.

 New Covid-19 Cases Fall Below 50,000 in U.S. for Second Straight Day – WSJ - The U.S. reported fewer than 50,000 new coronavirus cases for the second day in a row, even as the number of cases world-wide surpassed 20 million. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country registered the virus’s first vaccine, but the West and even some health and pharmaceutical officials in Russia have concerns over its safety.  And New Zealand reported its first locally transmitted cases of the virus in more than 100 days, spurring the government to reinstate restrictions in the country’s largest city.The U.S. reported 49,536 new infections Monday, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The nation had more than 5.1 million total confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins data. Comparing the one- and two-week averages of new cases in the U.S. suggests that infections are broadly on the decline. As of Aug. 10, the seven-day average of new cases was about 54,409, below the two-week average of about 57,433, according to the Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data. The one-week average was lower than the two-week average of new cases in 37 states.In nearly half the states, however, the seven-day moving average of tests per 1,000 people is lower this week, according to Johns Hopkins.Deaths in the U.S. appear to be holding steady, with the seven-day average of deaths just over 1,051, compared with a two-week average of almost 1,049. But 17 states and Washington, D.C., have higher seven-day averages than 14-day averages, suggesting the death rate is continuing to climb in some places. The country’s death toll stood Tuesday at more than 164,500, while deaths world-wide topped 738,000, according to Johns Hopkins data.On Tuesday, Florida’s Department of Health reported 276 new coronavirus-related deaths, the highest number added over a single day during the pandemic thus far. Deaths reported on a single day don’t necessarily mean they occurred on that day. The state also reported 5,831 new coronavirus cases. The confirmed death toll in Los Angeles County, meanwhile, surpassed 5,000, as the Department of Public Health reported 63 new deaths.

Wisconsin Passes 1,000 Deaths From COVID-19  - Wisconsin has reported more than 1,000 deaths from COVID-19 as of Tuesday. The state Department of Health Services reported eight new deaths, bringing the total to 1,006.New reports of COVID-19 cases are ticking back up in Wisconsin after a dip over the weekend and on Monday, based on the latest data published by the DHS.DHS reported 724 new cases of the virus on Tuesday, bringing the average for the past seven days to 818 daily cases.One week ago, the average was 840 daily cases. The latest figures bring the overall total of positive cases in Wisconsin to 61,785, according to the DHS. According to DHS, 5.3 percent of all test results reported on Tuesday were positive for COVID-19, bringing the overall percentage of positive tests over the past seven days to 6.3 percent. That figure has been decreasing since Saturday, when it was 8.9 percent.The percentage of positive cases is often read by public health officials as a measure of overall testing levels. A high rate could indicate that testing in the state is limited, and skewed toward those already flagged as potentially having the virus. A lower rate could indicate testing is more widespread. Changes in the test positivity rate can also speak to a virus' spread, if the size and makeup of the testing pool stays consistent. COVID-19 activity varies heavily from county to county. The latest coronavirus activity data from DHS, released once per week each Wednesday, showed that 66 counties had a "high level" of coronavirus activity. Activity level designations are based on "burden," or the number of new cases per a county’s population over a 14-day period, as well as whether there’s an upward or downward trend in new cases.

Michigan reports 517 new COVID-19 cases, state total hits 89K ⋆ The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) reported Wednesday that 89,271 total Michiganders have tested positive for COVID-19 and 6,273 have died from the virus — an additional 517 cases and nine deaths since Tuesday. DHHS also reports that an additional 9,418 Michiganders have been identified as “probable” cases for COVID-19, as well as 266 probable deaths. The department began tracking probable cases on April 5. Combining the state’s confirmed positive cases with probable cases brings the total up to 98,689 statewide cases and 6,539 deaths. The virus has been detected in all of Michigan’s 83 counties. The state’s COVID-19 fatality rate has fallen again slightly to 7%. The first two cases of COVID-19 were reported in the state on March 10. Whitmer declared a state of emergency that day. Johns Hopkins University reports that there are more than 20.4 million confirmed cases worldwide and 744,733 deaths. About one-quarter of those are in the United States, where more than 5.1 million confirmed cases and 165,328 deaths have been recorded.

August 13 COVID-19 Test Results - NOTE: North Carolina removed 220,000 tests from its cumulative total yesterday (a correction). I've added 220,000 to the total yesterday to make the percent positive correct.The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 880,729 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 51,705 positive tests. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.   The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.9% (red line).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

 California megachurch draws thousands at in-person services defying state coronavirus orders - The pastor of a megachurch in Los Angeles defended the church’s decision to allow thousands in for services Sunday, defying California state orders amid the coronavirus outbreak. Grace Community Church held in-person services on Sunday, and Pastor John MacArthur told CNN that six or seven thousand people showed up. The crowd size defies a state order released at the end of July that limits indoor attendance at a place of worship to 25 percent of a building capacity or a maximum of 100 attendees, whichever is lower. Asked about his disregard of coronavirus restrictions, MacArthur dismissed the responsibility for him to follow such guidelines. “When we look inside of your church, it is indoors, as you said, there’s thousand of people, there is absolutely no social distancing, there [are] no masks. Why not get creative, so you can obey, as you put it ‘god's law,’ but also obey public health regulations?” CNN’s Brianna Keilar asked the pastor. MacArthur responded that the church had been creative, putting a tent up in an overflow area and a screen in the middle of a large patio, but he said both areas filled up and people poured into the worship center. “We don't orchestrate this, this is a church. We don't ask people to make a reservation to come to church,” he said. Pressed on his decision to open the doors, he said he wasn't going to have people “standing outside in a mob.” “We opened the doors because that's what we are, we're a church and we’re going to trust those people to make adult decisions about the reality of their physical and spiritual health and how that balance works for each one of them," he said. "Nobody's forcing anything, they're here because they want to be here.".

UAW announces COVID outbreak at the Ford Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville with 32 new cases - The Ford Kentucky Truck Plant (KTP) in Louisville with nearly 9,000 workers has reported 32 new COVID-19 cases last Thursday. Workers at KTP assemble the Super Duty trucks, Lincoln Navigator, and Ford Expedition. The news was reported through the United Auto Workers union acting as the human resource department information portal for Ford. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, announced a record high 1,163 COVID-19 cases in the state Wednesday. Kentucky is on the New York, New Jersey, Connecticut tri-state list for a two-week mandatory quarantine requirement for travelers. Worker comments revealed that they were not surprised by the announcement of the thirty-two COVID-19 cases considering the lack of effective safety measures. One worker posted on the local union’s Facebook page, “Yeah, they really care about our health and safety.” A skilled trades worker at KTP spoke to the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter about the lack of information on coronavirus infections at the plant saying, “I have not heard anything from either management or UAW.” Adding, “I used to get emails about it, but not lately.” The widening scale of the COVID-19 crisis in manufacturing has also revealed itself at the nearby Louisville Assembly Plant, which produces the Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair SUVs. It reported 25 new cases of COVID-19 at the plant that has over 4,000 employees. In comments to local media that reflect the UAW’s disregard for the lives of workers and their families, Local 862 president Todd Dunn callously attempted to shift the blame onto workers that were on vacations and traveling during the scheduled plant shutdowns for the outbreak stating, “I think just out of the sheer numbers and the travel. I mean, it was somewhat expected, I think, by everybody.” According to a Ford Labor Relation Bulletin posted on Facebook addressing all workers on the A-crew shift at KTP some will be forced work mandatory shifts of up to 11.5 hours beginning August 16, a Sunday. The company is placing the blame on “volume,” however, it is likely intended to make up for the lack of manpower due to the rising numbers of those out because of illness. Workers’ social media comments revealed their hostility to their being forced to work longer hours in unsafe conditions with one worker writing ironically, “Wonderful.”

 White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia - President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19. The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery. “Current mitigation efforts are not having a sufficient impact,” the report said. Businesses, such as nightclubs, bars and gyms, currently open with some restrictions in Georgia, should be closed in the highest risk counties, the report said. The task force recommends restricting indoor dining at restaurants, now limited only by the number of diners who can be safely distanced six feet apart, to less than one-quarter of dining room capacity. Social gatherings, now capped at 50 people in Georgia, should be limited to 10 or fewer people. Georgia also needs to ramp up testing and contact tracing statewide, the report said, and testing and infection control measures need to be expanded in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution obtained the White House Coronavirus Task Force recommendations for Georgia, dated Aug. 9, from a source. Dr. Melanie Thompson, principal investigator of the AIDS Research Consortium of Atlanta, said it is frustrating that the report is only seeing the light of day because of a leak. “These are public health data and they should be publicly available,” she said. Though Kemp has encouraged Georgians to wear masks, Georgia is one of 16 states without some form of statewide mask mandate. Kemp said he believes a statewide requirement is unnecessary and unenforceable. Kemp’s emergency orders explicitly bar cities from enacting mask mandates or enacting any measures stricter or less restrictive than his.

 Analysis shows 54,000 “excess deaths” in US, pointing to coronavirus death toll of 200,700 -- More than 165,000 Americans have now died from the coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The US passed the grim statistic of 5 million cases of COVID-19 earlier this month. As horrifying as these figures are, a new analysis shows that the number of deaths from the coronavirus likely has been significantly undercounted. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzed by the New York Times have revealed that 200,700 people died from March 15, when the pandemic took hold, to July 25. This is 54,000 higher than the confirmed death toll, averaged, for the same time period in the previous three years. Excess deaths in the analysis are rounded to the nearest hundred. These 54,000 “excess deaths” are defined by the CDC as “the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.” The analysis strongly indicates that these excess deaths have been caused by the virus itself or by conditions triggered by the upheaval resulting from the pandemic. The Times looked at CDC figures for deaths from all causes, adjusting current death records to account for typical reporting lags. This allows for comparisons that don’t rely on the availability of COVID-19 tests in a given place or on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting. Epidemiologists generally agree that assessing excess deaths is the best way to assess the impact of the pandemic. Higher than normal death rates are widespread for the vast majority of US states. Only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia have death counts that look similar to recent years. Through July 25, the Times analysis shows that there were about 37 percent more excess deaths in the US than the official coronavirus fatality count. New York City, the early epicenter of the outbreak, has suffered the most dramatic increase in deaths. During the peak of the outbreak in the city, deaths surged to seven times the usual number. Overall, New York City had 27,200 excess deaths during the period analyzed. In addition to New York City, four states recorded deaths at least 10 percent higher than the normal level. New Jersey saw 18,000 deaths from May to July. New York State, excluding New York City, recorded 14,200 excess deaths. Texas had 13,500 excess deaths; California had 13,400.   The Times analysis shows that the pandemic’s toll cannot be attributed simply to the virus killing vulnerable people who would have died anyway. Most of the excess deaths revealed by the analysis could be attributed to the virus itself, but it is also likely that deaths from other causes have also risen due to hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID patients. People suffering from conditions that should be survivable have not sought care out of fear of contracting the virus. Such conditions include heart attack and stroke. In addition, people who have died at home have had their cause of death listed as pneumonia or other conditions that were likely caused by COVID-19.

Fauci warns against herd immunity: “the death toll would be enormous”- Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID), was interviewed yesterday by actor Matthew McConaughey (Free State of Jones) on the state of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. During the course of the interview, McConaughey asked, “If everyone in the world contracts the disease, what happens to it? Does it go away on its own?” Fauci definitively warned that, “If everyone contracted it … a lot of people are going to die.” The day before, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield similarly cautioned in an interview with WebMD that because “we’re going to have COVID in the fall, and we’re going to have flu in the fall,” the country could be hit with “the worst fall, from a public health perspective, we’ve ever had.” The combination is almost certain to “stress certain hospital systems” beyond what they are capable of handling. In his understated way, Fauci spelled out the imminent danger of any policy of “herd immunity” gained through letting the country or the world’s population become infected with the virus. The current low end estimates of COVID-19’s mortality rate given by the World Health Organization is 0.6 percent, and at least half of the population has to become immune to halt the spread of the disease in this manner. Taken together, this translates to a minimum of 23 million dead worldwide from the pandemic, including more than 993,000 in the US alone. As Fauci put it, “The death toll would be enormous and totally unacceptable.” The current death toll in the US is more than 171,000, along with 5.4 million cases, already a staggering figure. To achieve the minimum estimate of herd immunity would require a scale of death six times greater than the tally already taken. The interview between Fauci and McConaughey took place the same day the CDC released new estimates for the death toll in the United States, predicting there will be 200,000 reported deaths by the first week of September if the daily death rates in every state hold steady or decrease slightly. If the death rates begin to increase again, there could be as many as 225,000 deaths by Labor Day. The CDC’s estimate incorporates that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which predicted last week that 295,000 people will die by December 1.

Coronavirus: Is the world winning the pandemic fight? -It is little more than six months since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the arrival of a new virus a global emergency. On that day, at the end of January, there had been almost 10,000 reported cases of coronavirus and more than 200 people had died. None of those deaths were outside of China. Since then the world, and our lives, have changed profoundly. So how are we faring in this battle between the human race and the coronavirus? If we take the planet as a whole, the picture is looking rough. Area chart showing the number of global cases is fast approaching 20 million There have been more than 19 million confirmed cases and 700,000 deaths. At the start of the pandemic it was taking weeks to clock up each 100,000 infections, now those milestones are measured in hours. "We're still in the midst of an accelerating, intense and very serious pandemic," Dr Margaret Harris, from the WHO, told me. "It's there in every community in the world." While this is a single pandemic, it is not one single story. The impact of Covid-19 is different around the world and it is easy to blind yourself to the reality beyond your own country. But one fact unites everyone, whether they make their home in the Amazon rainforest, the skyscrapers of Singapore or the late-summer streets of the UK: this is a virus that thrives on close human contact. The more we come together, the easier it will spread. That is as true today as when the virus first emerged in China. This central tenet explains the situation wherever you are in the world and dictates what the future will look like.  It is driving the high volume of cases in Latin America - the current epicentre of the pandemic - and the surge in India. It explains why Hong Kong is keeping people inquarantine facilities or the South Korean authorities are monitoring people's bank accounts and phones. It illustrates why Europe and Australia are struggling to balance lifting lockdowns and containing the disease. And why we are trying to find a "new normal" rather than the old one. "This is a virus circulating all over the planet. It affects every single one of us. It goes from human to human, and highlights that we are all connected," . "It's not just about travel, it's speaking and spending time together - that's what humans do."Even the simple act of singing together spreads the virus.It has also proven to be an exceptionally tricky virus to track, causing mild or no symptoms for many, but deadly enough to others to overwhelm hospitals. "It's the perfect pandemic virus of our time. We are now living in the time of coronavirus,"

Global COVID-19 Pandemic Surpasses 20 Million Confirmed Cases- Live Updates - As expected, Johns Hopkins has just confirmed that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide has surpassed 20 million since the start of the pandemic. Of those, more than 700,000 have died. It comes just days after the US, the world's biggest outbreak, topped 5 million, and Brazil, the No. 2, topped 3 million.Meanwhile, Cali Governor Gavin Newsom said trends point to “encouraging signs” in California’s virus outbreak. Hospitalizations have dropped 19% in the last 14 days, while the number of people in intensive care fell 13% over the same period.Millions more cases are likely unconfirmed... The "Big Ten" just became the first major college football conference to cancel the upcoming season, despite insistence that the conference would do whatever it could to continue with play.The Big Ten became the first “Power Five” conference to cancel football for the upcoming season, forgoing a major revenue source as the pandemic upends college sports, the Detroit Free Press reported. School presidents voted Sunday to cancel fall sports and an official announcement is expected Tuesday, the newspaper said. The tally was 12-2, with only the University of Nebraska and the University of Iowa voting to play, Dan Patrick said Monday on his radio show. Over the weekend, the Mid-American Conference became the first in the FBS, or Football Bowl Subdivision, to scrap its 2020 season.It follows UConn's decision to cancel college football last week. A preliminary reading on new US cases found they slowed again on Monday. California reported 7,751 new cases on Monday, slightly above yesterday's total, though officials said that some of the cases might belong to prior days, as the state has only just finally fixed its lab reporting issues supposedly caused the state to undercount cases for weeks.

Chinese mainland reports 49 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths -The Chinese mainland registered 49 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, with 35 cases from overseas and 14 domestically transmitted, Chinese health authority said Monday.  All of the 14 domestically transmitted cases are in northwestern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. And among the cases from overseas, 18 are in Shanghai.  Shanghai's civil aviation department will strengthen the control measures for international flights and certain airlines will be halted as imported COVID-19 cases have been continuously reported on some inbound flights in Shanghai, according to local authorities on Monday.  No deaths related to the disease were reported on Sunday, while 64 COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospitals. The total confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and the Taiwan region are as follows: 
Hong Kong: 4,079 (2,847 recoveries, 52 deaths) 
Macao: 46 (46 recoveries) 
Taiwan: 477 (441 recoveries, 7 deaths)

Two Chinese Patients Test Positive Months After Virus Recovery - Two patients in China that recovered from Covid-19 months ago tested positive for the coronavirus again, raising concern of the virus’s ability to linger and reappear in people who it previously infected. A 68-year-old woman in the central Chinese province of Hubei, where the novel coronavirus first surfaced in December, tested positive on Sunday, six months after she was diagnosed with Covid-19 and recovered. Another man found to have contracted the disease in April after returning from abroad tested positive in Shanghai on Monday but hasn’t shown any symptoms. None of the patients’ close contacts has tested positive for the virus, but they have been placed under quarantine, local authorities said. The two cases are the latest addition to a growing number of “virus reactivation” anecdotes found among patients believed to have recovered from the viral infection, which has sickened more than 20 million worldwide and killed 748,000. While it is rare for recovered patients to test positive again, the phenomenon raises questions over why some patients suffer from long-term symptoms, and whether any immunity to the disease might be too ephemeral to protect against re-infection. Some studies have shown the level of protective antibodies an infected person may build up to fight the virus quickly drop after only a few months, possibly making them susceptible to the same pathogen a second time. However, there is little evidence so far that re-infection has been occurring in this pandemic. Some experts have raised the possibility that other cells continue to provide immunity even after antibodies fade. Researchers in South Korea have suggested that the virus detected in patients months after recovery could be the vestiges of dead virus particles that are no longer infectious.

Chinese City Says Chicken Wings from Brazil Test Positive - Consumers in the Chinese city of Shenzhen have been urged to exercise caution when buying imported frozen food after a surface sample of chicken wings from Brazil tested positive for coronavirus, according to a statement from the local government. The positive sample appears to have been taken from the surface of the meat, while previously reported positive cases from other Chinese cities have been from the surface of packaging on imported frozen seafood. The chicken came from an Aurora Alimentos plant in the southern state of Santa Catarina, according to a registration number given in the statement. Virus tests of people who have possibly come into contact with the product, and tests of related products, all came back negative, the statement said. Consumers should be cautious when buying imported frozen foods and aquatic products, the government added. The World Health Organization said that there had been no examples proving that the virus could be transmitted as food borne, if it was actually in food. “The viruses can be killed like other viruses as well, and can be killed if the meat is cooked,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the organization’s Covid-19 technical lead, at a press conference. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry has asked Chinese authorities for information that could help clarify the alleged contamination of the product with Covid-19, it said in a statement. The ministry reiterated that there’s no scientific proof of Covid-19 transmission through food or frozen food packaging, citing the UN’S Food and Agriculture Organization and the WHO. It also reinforced the country’s strict safety protocols. Closely-held Aurora Alimentos said in a statement Thursday that it follows strict sanitary production protocols and it will provide information as soon it gets notification from national Chinese authorities. Three packaging samples of imported frozen seafood

Coronavirus: New Zealand marks 100 days without community spread - BBC News - New Zealand has gone 100 days without recording a locally transmitted Covid-19 case, a milestone that has both been welcomed and brought warnings against complacency. The last case of community transmission was detected on 1 May, days after the country started easing its lockdown. Sunday was the fourth day in a row that no new cases of Covid-19 were reported. The total number of active cases in the country remained at 23, all in managed isolation. New Zealand has fared better than other countries, recording 1,219 confirmed cases and 22 deaths since the virus arrived in late February. Praised internationally for its handling of the pandemic, the country's government has lifted almost all of its lockdown restrictions, first imposed in March. An early lockdown, tough border restrictions, effective health messaging and an aggressive test-and-trace programme have all been credited with virtually eliminating the virus in the country.

No new Covid cases, 101 days without virus in community  - There are no new Covid-19 cases today, the Ministry of Health says. It has been 101 days since the last case of Covid-19 was acquired locally from an unknown source, it said. Two additional cases are reported as having recovered, so there are now 21 active cases in managed isolation facilities. New Zealand’s total number of confirmed cases remains at 1,219. There is no-one currently requiring hospital-level care for Covid-19. Yesterday our laboratories processed 2,125 tests, bringing the total number of tests completed to date to 496,606. There were 1,134 swabs taken in managed isolation and quarantine facilities yesterday. The number of tests yesterday was encouraging for a Sunday, the Ministry said. "We’ve now passed 100 days without community transmission, but testing remains one of the best ways to ensure there’s no undetected community transmission in New Zealand. We need everyone to play their part in that. "While Covid-19 continues around the world, New Zealand cannot be complacent. "Our response to Covid-19 works on the basis that we should be prepared for a case of community transmission, and that that could happen at any time. "We have prepared for this eventuality by, among other things, scaling up our capacity in testing and contact tracing, and every New Zealander needs to be prepared for the virus to re-emerge." Tracing contacts of cases of Covid-19 as quickly as possible would help stop the virus from spreading in our communities.

 Russia Approves World's First Coronavirus Vaccine -Russia's Health Ministry has given regulatory approval for the world's first COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing, President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday. "This morning, for the first time in the world, a vaccine against the new coronavirus was registered" in Russia, Putin said during a televised video conference call with government ministers.Putin added that the vaccine, developed by Moscow's Gamaleya Institute, has proven efficient during tests and promises to offer "sustainable immunity" against the coronavirus."I would like to repeat that it has passed all the necessary tests," Putin said. "The most important thing is to ensure full safety of using the vaccine and its efficiency." The Russian leader also said that one of his daughters has already been inoculated and is feeling well. "One of my daughters got vaccinated, so in this sense, she took part in the testing," Putin said.After the first vaccine shot, his daughter experienced a slight fever, 38 degrees Celsius (100.4°F). Her temperature came down to just slightly above normal the next day."After the second shot, she had a slight fever again, and then everything was fine. She is feeling well and has a high antibody count," Putin said.He didn't specify which of his two daughters, Maria or Katerina, received the vaccine.Russian health authorities have said that medical workers, teachers and other risk groups will be the first to receive shots of the vaccine.  Russia is the first country to register a COVID-19 vaccine. As countries worldwide race to produce the first vaccine, health experts warn that speed and national pride could compromise safety.Scientists in Russia and abroad have questioned Moscow's decision to register the vaccine before Phase 3 trials that normally last for months and involve thousands of people, but Putin emphasized that the vaccine underwent the necessary trials and that vaccination will be voluntary. Russian officials have said that large-scale production of the vaccine will begin in September, and mass vaccination may start as early as October.

Putin hails new Sputnik moment as Russia is first to approve a COVID-19 vaccine -  (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had become the first country to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing, a move Moscow likened to its success in the Cold War-era space race. The vaccine, which will be called “Sputnik V” in homage to the world’s first satellite launched by the Soviet Union, has however not yet completed its final trials. Moscow’s decision to grant approval before then has raised concerns among some experts. Only about 10% of clinical trials are successful and some scientists fear Moscow may be putting national prestige before safety. Putin and other officials have said it is completely safe. The president said one of his daughters had taken it as a volunteer and felt good afterwards. “I know that it works quite effectively, forms strong immunity, and I repeat, it has passed all the necessary checks,” Putin told a government meeting. The Russian business conglomerate Sistema has said it expects to put the vaccine, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, into mass production by the end of the year. Government officials have said it will be administered to medical personnel, and then to teachers, on a voluntary basis at the end of this month or in early September. Mass roll-out in Russia is expected to start in October. The vaccine is administered in two doses and consists of two serotypes of a human adenovirus, each carrying an S-antigen of the new coronavirus, which enter human cells and produce an immune response. The platform used for the vaccine was developed by Russian scientists over two decades and had formed the basis for several vaccines in the past, including those against Ebola. Authorities hope it will allow the Russian economy, which has been battered by fallout from the virus, to return to full capacity.

 New Zealand considers freight as possible source of new coronavirus cluster - (Reuters) - New Zealand officials are investigating the possibility that its first COVID-19 cases in more than three months were imported by freight, as the country’s biggest city plunged back into lockdown on Wednesday. The discovery of four infected family members in Auckland led Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to swiftly reimpose tight restrictions in the city and social distancing measures across the entire country. The source of the outbreak has baffled health officials, who said they were confident there was no local transmission of the virus in New Zealand for 102 days. “We are working hard to put together pieces of the puzzle on how this family got infected,” said Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield. Investigations were zeroing in on the potential the virus was imported by freight. Bloomfield said surface testing was underway at an Auckland cool store where a man from the infected family worked. “We know the virus can survive within refrigerated environments for quite some time,” Bloomfield said during a televised media conference. 

New outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand - Yesterday a “level three” lockdown was imposed in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, after four people in a family tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday. Thirteen other cases linked to the South Auckland family have since been found, including four children. COVID-19 testing stations in Auckland were overwhelmed yesterday, with some people waiting up to 12 hours for a test and others reportedly being turned away. About a quarter of Auckland’s workers are staying home and schools are closed, except for the children of essential workers. The restrictions were announced for three days, but are widely expected to be extended. They are not as stringent, however, as the “level four” nationwide lockdown imposed in March-April. Under level three, construction businesses, cafes and other shops can still operate, supposedly with social distancing protocols in place. The rest of the country is on alert level two, with people told to practice physical distancing, and gatherings of more than 100 people banned. Schools and businesses remain open. The new coronavirus cases are the first to be discovered in New Zealand in 102 days, apart from international travellers. More than 7,000 returned travellers are currently undergoing two weeks of quarantine in hotels controlled by the military. Of these, at least 23 have the virus. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party-led government has been glorified by the world’s media for its response to the pandemic, including a relatively early and strict lockdown. The country has experienced just 22 deaths from the virus. The rediscovery of COVID-19 in the community, however, underscores that the pandemic cannot be defeated at a national level, but requires a coordinated and well-resourced international response that is incompatible with the capitalist nation-state system.

Brazilian teachers report 36 COVID-infected schools after one week of classes in Manaus - The first week of return to classes in public schools in Manaus, the first Brazilian capital to take the measure, was marked by disastrous episodes. The Secretariat of Education and Sports (Seduc) of the state of Amazonas reported that 123 state schools reopened in Manaus on Monday. About 110,000 students returned to classrooms under a “hybrid system,” alternating days of attendance. The Secretary of Education Luís Fabian Barbosa assured that the government was going to implement “a safe plan for resuming classroom activities, which included the participation of control agencies, unions representing the workforce, the students’ parents and the school community.” This statement was backed up by a committee of deputies from the Amazonas Legislative Assembly that visited schools “at random” and proved that “all the measures are being taken.” The commission was led by congressman Sinésio Campos, the state president of the Workers Party (PT), who said: “As a teacher I understand the concern of teachers. ... But I also understand that students need to resume educational activities.” In contrast to the statements made by Seduc and the deputies, educators and students shared on social media images of crowded schools with extremely precarious infrastructure. The masks distributed by the government, unusable because of being oversized, became a meme among students.

 Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19  Around 3.4 million people in England -- 6% of the population -- have contracted coronavirus, with infection rates twice as high in London, a major antibody study found. A mass survey of more than 100,000 people -- which the government says is the biggest of its kind in the world -- suggested the extent of the outbreak varied widely between different areas and population groups. In London, 13% of people had antibodies while in the South West of England it was less than 3%, according to the research, released by the Department of Health and Imperial College London. People from Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups, care workers, and people living in larger households were among the most likely to have been infected. The research involved 100,000 people testing themselves at home for coronavirus antibodies between June 20 and July 13. The government said there is no firm evidence that antibodies provide immunity. But the findings are significant because they are likely to influence the decisions officials will make about what kind of lockdown restrictions are needed in the future, and which groups are at greatest risk. Boris Johnson’s government has been attacked for its handling of the pandemic, which left the U.K. with the highest death toll in Europe and facing the deepest recession of any comparable country. Heavy Burden There was no breakthrough on the quest for a home antibody test for general use among the public. Separate studies, also unveiled on Thursday, evaluated a range of finger-prick home antibody tests but found the results were not reliable enough to be given government approval for widespread use, officials said. The tests were still deemed to be suitable for surveillance studies such as the Imperial research. The burden of Covid-19 “has fallen particularly heavily on ethnic minority groups and key workers, particularly in care homes and healthcare,” said Professor Helen Ward, one of the researchers involved. “Those in deprived and densely populated areas are most likely to have been exposed to the virus, and we need to do far more to protect people from any future waves of infection.”

Andrew Kimbrell On The Origins of COVID-19 -What are the origins of the COVID-19 virus? Did it come from nature? Or did it leak from a lab in Wuhan, China? The International Center for Technology Assessment is placing its bets on a leak from a lab in Wuhan. “After considerable research, including a thorough review of the selected research materials and discussions with experts in the field, we have come to agree with the view that the virus causing COVID-19 did not evolve naturally but rather is the product of one of the high-security bio-medical laboratories in Wuhan, China,” the group said in a statement issued last month. “We believe that there is a preponderance of circumstantial and scientific evidence demonstrating that the ‘laboratory virus’ hypothesis is not only possible but probable. By contrast, recent refutation of the hypothesis that the virus originated at a Wuhan wet market and new findings that the virus has not been found in nature despite significant effort to do so, makes the view that the virus evolved naturally unlikely.” “No dispositive finding on the virus’ origin can be made without a full review of the records and logs of the Wuhan high security laboratories involved, which the current stance of the government of China makes improbable. Nevertheless, in coming to a conclusion as to the probability of its laboratory origin, ICTA understands that it is critical that any analysis of the origin of this catastrophic contagion be apolitical and constructive. ICTA’s work in this area is not intended to blame individual scientists or any country, but rather to help provide the insight, and encourage the action needed to spare humanity from a series of future man-made pandemics that could surpass the current one in transmissibility and lethality.”  Let’s go through it. It is undisputed that this is a chimeric virus that has never been seen before. It’s a hybrid virus.“ “The bat coronaviruses that are closest to COVID-19 are lacking two incredibly important things that COVID-19 has that make it so dangerous. One is the proteins that spike the cell – the spike proteins. The spike proteins that are on COVID-19 are completely different than those on the bat coronaviruses that are closest to it otherwise. Then there is the furin cleavage site. This is something that allows the virus to get inside the cell and have the cell mechanism reproduce it. That does not exist in this group of bat coronaviruses.” “You have a basic bat coronavirus and you have two things that have been added to it. The spike protein is closest to an animal called the pangolin. We do know that somehow this bat virus was infected by at least two other animals and then went into a human host. And for that virus to be the way it is, it had to happen simultaneously.” “We have a hybrid virus never seen before in nature, it had to have been infected simultaneously with these other elements that make it more dangerous – make it more infective and more transmissible.” “There is no theory about how they got in there. They used to think it was the wet market. That has been completely debunked, including by the Chinese government. No one believes that anymore. That explanation was a smoke screen put up by the Chinese and Americans who want to support that idea.” What are the chances it happened naturally? “Someone will have to come up with a scenario. It sounds almost like a joke. A horseshoe bat, a pangolin and some other creature met in a bar in Wuhan and somehow simultaneously infected them.” 

The onion salmonella outbreak grows. More recalls from Walmart, Kroger, Publix, H-E-B -- The Salmonella Newport outbreak linked to onions has expanded into one of the largest in recent years, with 640 people sickened in 43 states, as of the most recent CDC update.As the outbreak has expanded, so have the associated food recalls.Once Bakersfield, California-based Thomson International initiated a 50-state recall of white, red, yellow and sweet yellow onions last week, the next wave of recalls would be of all the products that included those onions. That wave washed out products sold at Walmart, Kroger and Giant Eagle, all of which were recalled this week.Also recalled were red onions packaged by Del Monte Fresh Produce and sold via bulk displays at Publix stores in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Virginia. The Lakeland-based chain says no Florida stores were involved in this recall of red onions shipped to Publix in July with product lookup number 4082. The USDA put out a Public Health Alert about these onion-containing food products from Taylor Farms, the producer in the earlier Walmart and Kroger recalls. Consumers with any of the below products should return them to the store for a full refund. (list with pictures)

Salmonella Outbreak Linked to Onions Spreads to 43 States and Canada -Nearly 900 people across the U.S. and Canada have been sickened by salmonella linked to onions distributed by Thomson International, the The New York Times reported. The outbreak reached 43 states and 7 provinces in Canada by the end of Sunday, forcing major retailers, including Trader Joe's, Giant Eagle and Publix, to remove onions from their shelves. The outbreak is likely to continue spreading as onions were shipped to all 50 states from the Bakersfield, California-based food distributor, according to Ars Technica.  It is possible that an increasing number of cases will be reported over the next few weeks due to the lag between when a person gets sick and gets tested, then having an agency report the illness, Martin Wiedmann, a food safety professor at Cornell University, told The New York Times. A CDC map of the outbreak identifies 640 cases across the country, with Utah, Oregon and California showing the largest number of cases. The recalled list includes red, yellow, white and sweet yellow onions. The major chains that carried the onions also include Walmart, Kroger, Fred Meyer, Food Lion and H-E-B. According to a statement Friday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the onions were sold under the following brand names: Thomson Premium, TLC Thomson International, Tender Loving Care, El Competitor, Hartley's Best, Onions 52, Majestic, Imperial Fresh, Kroger, Utah Onions and Food Lion. The CDC asked people to proceed with extreme caution. "If you used onions to make any other food and don't know where the onions were from, don't eat the food. Throw it away, even if some of it was eaten and no one got sick," the CDC said. It added, "Wash and sanitize any surfaces that may have come in contact with onions or their packaging, such as countertops, storage bins, refrigerator drawers, knives, and cutting boards." "People who believe they've gotten diarrhea from consuming red onions might want to contact a health care provider," Emilio DeBess, an epidemiologist at the Oregon Public Health Division Acute and Communicable Disease Prevention Section, told KDRV. "However, most people with salmonellosis will recover without antibiotics."  According to the CDC, salmonella is a bacteria that can cause salmonellosis, and most human infections are caused by eating food contaminated with it. Salmonellosis can lead to diarrhea, fever and abdominal cramps. These symptoms usually appear within three days after becoming infected and usually resolve within four to seven days. In some cases, the infection may spread to the bloodstream and other parts of the body. These cases are associated with more severe diarrhea, which can lead to hospitalization. Severe cases can be deadly if not treated promptly with antibiotics.

Kroger and Fred Meyer are recalling cheese dips due to salmonella -  Grocery stores across the United States are recalling a tub-load of cheese dips after a salmonella outbreak tainted an onion crop and sickened hundreds. The United States Food and Drug Administration posted six new food recalls on its website Wednesday. The recalls affect dozens of cheese dips and spreads sold between May 15 and August 6 at Kroger, Fred Meyer, Fry's Food Stores, and Smith's Food and Drug. Each grocer said in its recall notice that they were informed of a salmonella-outbreak among the red, yellow, and white onions from Thomson International, Inc. on July 31. The recall notices also said that after the various grocery stores removed the potentially-tainted Thomson International onions, they found that "several in-store made cheese dips may have used red onions from the produce department as an ingredient." Murray's, Jarslberg, and deli cheese dips and spreads dominate the recall lists. Acquired by Kroger in 2017, Murray's Cheese is a New York City-based cheese retailer.  The salmonella outbreak that triggered the initial onion recall has sickened 879 people so far. The recalled onions were shipped to all 50 states and sold at grocery retailers like Kroger, Walmart, and Trader Joe's. Anyone who bought a recalled cheese dip or spread product from is advised to not eat the product, as it may contain salmonella.

Seafood study finds plastic in all samples  - A study of five different seafoods has found traces of plastic in every sample tested. Researchers bought oysters, prawns, squid, crabs and sardines from a market in Australia and analysed them using a newly developed method that identifies and measures five different plastic types simultaneously. The study - by the University of Exeter and the University of Queensland - found plastic levels of 0.04 milligrams (mg) per gram of tissue in squid, 0.07mg in prawns, 0.1mg in oysters, 0.3mg in crabs and 2.9mg in sardines. "Considering an average serving, a seafood eater could be exposed to approximately 0.7mg of plastic when ingesting an average serving of oysters or squid, and up to 30mg of plastic when eating sardines, respectively," "For comparison, 30mg is the average weight of a grain of rice. "Our findings show that the amount of plastics present varies greatly among species, and differs between individuals of the same species. "From the seafood species tested, sardines had the highest plastic content, which was a surprising result." "We do not fully understand the risks to human health of ingesting plastic, but this new method will make it easier for us to find out." The researchers bought raw seafood - five wild blue crabs, ten oysters, ten farmed tiger prawns, ten wild squid and ten wild sardines. They then analysed them for the five different kinds of plastics that can be identified by the new method. All of the plastics are commonly used in plastic packaging and synthetic textiles and are frequently found in marine litter: polystyrene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene and poly(methyl methacrylate). Polyvinyl chloride was found in all samples, while the plastic found in highest concentrations was polyethylene.

Seafood Study Finds Plastic in 100% of Samples -- A new study of five different kinds of seafood revealed traces of plastic in every sample tested.   Researchers bought raw samples of popular seafood from a market in Australia, including 10 oysters, 10 farmed tiger prawns, 10 wild squid, five wild blue crab and 10 wild sardines, reported Daily Mail. At least trace levels of plastic contamination were found in each, with the highest content found in sardines, according to the research.  The scientists used a new technique to identify and measure five different types of plastics contained within the tissues of each sample of seafood simultaneously, reported Intrafish. They did so in order to better understand the potential harm microplastics in seafood could have on human health, lead author Francisca Ribeiro said in a University of Queensland press release. The study found greatly varying amounts of plastic in each of the different types of seafood tested as well as in the individual species, said a University of Exeter press release. "Another interesting aspect was the diversity of microplastic types found among species, with polyethylene predominant in fish and polyvinyl chloride the only plastic detected in oysters." "Considering an average serving, a seafood eater could be exposed to approximately 0.7mg of plastic when ingesting an average serving of oysters or squid, and up to 30mg of plastic when eating sardines, respectively …. For comparison, 30mg is the average weight of a grain of rice." The plastics found by the scientists are commonly used in plastic packaging and synthetic textiles, including polystyrene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polypropylene and poly (methyl methacrylate), reported Intrafish. Polyvinyl chloride was found in all samples, while the plastic found in highest concentrations was polyethylene, the world's most popular plastic, reported Daily Mail. These plastics frequently end up in waterways and oceans, where they continue to break down into microplastics, very small pieces of plastics that are often eaten by marine creatures of all sizes and types. Microplastics are absorbed by plankton, bioaccumulate as they are carried up the food chain and eventually end up on our plates, reported Energy Live News. Humans are exposed to microplastics not only in the seafood we eat, but also through bottled water, sea salt, beer, honey, and even dust that settles on our meals, the University of Exeter release said.

Coronavirus wasn’t bad enough, so now there’s a new virus outbreak in China  -- While the world is still reeling from the novel coronavirus pandemic, a previously-known virus has popped up again in China and has already claimed at least seven lives and infected dozens of others. Chinese state media reports that the virus originates in ticks, and that being bitten by the tiny bugs is the primary route of transmission.However, researchers in China say that it may be possible to spread the viral infection from person to person under certain circumstances. The virus could be passed through either blood or mucous, health experts say, but ticks are still the biggest danger.  The virus, which has been slowly spreading throughout the first half of the year, is known as the SFTS Virus. It’s not a new virus, and researchers first detected and identified it almost a decade ago. Still, an outbreak of the virus is not to be taken lightly, as it has proven to cause serious health issues and can be lethal.  Right now, the virus is most prevalent in East China, where at least 60 people have been infected. Some of the patients have recovered from their infections, but the virus has also claimed lives. Symptoms include fever and coughing, which are very non-specific and could suggest that more people are infected and simply don’t know it yet.Transmission of the virus between humans is considered possible, but it would likely be under very rare circumstances. Health officials in the region say there’s little chance that this virus could become an epidemic or pandemic due to its origins and the fact that ticks are the primary route of transmission.Ticks are a common route of transmission for various illnesses all over the world. They dig in and feed on blood, making them the perfect carriers for disease. In the United States, those traveling on foot through wooded areas or camping are often told to check themselves and their pets for ticks on a regular basis. The primary danger of ticks in the United States and many other areas is Lyme disease, which is characterized by fever, headache, fatigue, and sometimes a bright red rash on the skin, though this isn’t always present.

Navajo Nation’s Shortage of Clean Water Is Impeding Efforts to Control COVID - Sunny Dooley learned from an early age that safe, clean water was as precious as a rare mineral, and just as hard to find. Because of naturally occurring uranium and arsenic in the groundwater, the nearest clean well was two miles away. Dooley and her family used to make the trip on foot with steel buckets they would drop down the well before lugging them back, a trail of splashes in the dirt marking the route behind. Later, when a manual water pump was installed at the well, the water flowed more freely. “We acclimated to live sparingly with water,” said Dooley, now a distinguished storyteller, who still doesn’t have running water or indoor plumbing in her home. Dooley’s story, however, isn’t an oddity in this great 27,000 square mile swath of land in the Four Corners region of Southwestern U.S. Of the Navajo Nation’s 200,000 plus residents, between 30 and 40 percent have no direct access to running water. Some residents speculate that number is even higher. Half of the Navajo population within the Utah portion of the Nation alone lack indoor plumbing. In a region where the median household income is about half that for the U.S. as a whole, these long, routine treks to find clean water can cost some households hundreds of dollars a month in gas. The reasons underpinning the Nation’s current clean water crisis date back more than 100 years to a federal Supreme Court ruling that was supposed to favor reservations, but in its application has led to a complex tangle of water rights that impede the Nation’s efforts to provide for its members. “There’s a bureaucracy of water here,” said Dooley. “Tribal government bureaucracy. New Mexico state bureaucracy. United States government bureaucracy.”  Added to that is a disastrous environmental legacy from drilling and mining projects on the Nation that have destroyed precious water resources, along with climate change’s growing environmental footprint in an area already prone to drought.In terms of the latest crisis, the coronavirus has hit the Navajo Nation harder than any other region of the U.S. Universal access to clean water would be a “gamechanger” for the Nation, said Sriram Shamasunder, an associate professor with the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), who recently spent a month helping the Nation through a UCSFprogram designed to funnel health care workers toward disadvantaged communities. “My recommendations for COVID are so much of a flat-tax,” said Shamasunder, pointing to good hand hygiene and being able to shelter in place. “It doesn’t work for poor people that don’t have running water.”

PA announces $4.3M grant to reduce lead in drinking water at schools in tribal communities –On Thursday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a new grant program to help protect children in tribal communities from lead in drinking water at schools and childcare facilities.With this action, the agency is continuing to make meaningful progress under the Trump Administration’s Federal Action Plan to Reduce Childhood Lead Exposures by engaging with tribes and working to protect childrens’ health in these underserved communities.“Protecting children in tribal communities from lead in drinking water is a priority for the Trump Administration and EPA,” said U.S. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “This new funding helps tribes further reduce lead in drinking water by boosting testing for lead in schools and childcare centers. This, in turn, will increase the health and wellbeing of the coming generation.”Authorized by the Water Infrastructure Improvements of the Nation (WIIN) Act, EPA is making $4.3 million available to support the Lead Testing in School and Child Care Program Drinking Water Tribal Grant Program.Grantees will use the EPA’s 3Ts for Reducing Lead in Drinking Water guidance to implement lead testing programs and develop monitoring, maintenance and/or sampling plans that protect children from lead exposure now and in the future. Beneficiaries of the program must be members of a federally-recognized tribe.

 Americans Are Continuing To Die From Drinking Hand Sanitizer - US health officials are still having to verbalize what most would think is only too obvious: don't drink hand sanitizer.During the past two summer months as lockdowns have endured in a number of states, and as large states like Texas and Arizona saw a severe coronavirus resurgence, health officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CD) said this week four people have died from consuming hand sanitizers.At least 15 adults had also been poisoned in Arizona and New Mexico after ingesting it, with some continuing to have vision problems and other devastating lingering effects.Of note is that in all cases of fatalities, the hand sanitizers contained methanol, or wood alcohol, which is a dangerous substitute for the legitimate germ killing ingredient of ethyl alcohol. Methanol is actually a key ingredient in antifreeze.Somehow they thought this was a extra precaution toward disinfecting themselves, apparently.  Last week the US Food and Drug Administration greatly expanded its list of potentially harmful and danterous hand sanitizers, which is at a whopping 100+. Warnings first surfaced in June, at which point less than a dozen were named. This after an explosion of new, cheap sanitizers hit the market following an initial run on alcohol-based sanitizing cleaning products in March, when coronavirus lockdowns took effect.Initially the FDA's warnings were focused on products that are potentially toxic when absorbed through the skin, given some contained methanol.This makes the sanitizers deadly if swallowed as well, as is tragically being demonstrated in the case of some people actually consuming the products.

Wildlife deaths from coronavirus disinfectant use alarm scientists  -In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, public health officials believed that one of the most effective ways to fight the spread of the virus was to disinfect highly touched surfaces.That led China, South Korea, France, Spain, and several other countries to spray copious amounts of disinfectant throughout densely populated urban areas. Fleets of trucks, drones, and even robots doused streets, parks, playgrounds, and other outdoor public spaces with virus-killing chemicals.In Indonesia, drones drenched homes in disinfectant from above. And in one village in Spain, tractors dumped hundreds of gallons of bleach onto a public beach. Infectious-disease experts, including the World Health Organization, have since denounced the practice as both ineffective and a potential health hazard to people, in particular respiratory irritation from inhaling the chemicals. Combining disinfectants, such as bleach and ammonia, could also release potentially fatal gases, WHO warned. And this month, biologists joined in, claiming in a new commentary in the journal Environmental Research that the indiscriminate use of such substances in urban settings poses a significant danger to wildlife. China was the first country, in January 2020, to start sanitizing its cities—and as soon as it did, reports of poisoned animals started coming in. In February, an investigation by the Chongqing Forestry Bureau in Chongqing, a huge city in southwestern China, found that at least 135 animals across 17 species—including wild boars, Siberian weasels, and blackbirds—had died after exposure to disinfectants, according to Chinese news agency Xinhua. Disinfectant ingredients, mostly sodium hypochlorite, chlorine, and bleach, are “acutely toxic to both terrestrial and aquatic animals,” says Dongming Li, professor of ecology at Hebei Normal University and co-author of theEnvironmental Research analysis, which was based solely on the Chongqing Forestry Bureau’s investigation. Li and his colleagues did not personally examine the dead animals to confirm what had killed them. Even so, the animals’ deaths are concerning evidence, Li believes, that “the overuse of disinfectants may contaminate the habitats of urban wildlife.” Li’s team is now calling on world leaders to regulate the dispersal of disinfectants in urban areas, which they say is being done without input from the scientific community.

Federal Judge Strikes Down Trump Admin Rollback of Law Protecting Migratory Birds -  Environmentalists and ornithologists found a friend in a federal court on Tuesday when a judge struck down aTrump administration attempt to allow polluters to kill birds without repercussions through rewriting the Migratory Treaty Bird Act (MBTA).The issue at the heart of the case is that the Trump administration intended to change decades of established policy to allow the incidental slaughter of migratory birds as long as an individual or corporation could prove they did not intend to intentionally kill the bird, according to The Washington Post.In a scathing decision, U.S. District Court Judge Valerie Caproni questioned the humanity of an administration that would interpret the "taking" and "killing" of birds in the Migratory Bird Treaty Act as only applying to actions that specifically targeted birds.In upholding the longstanding interpretation of the century-old Migratory Bird Treaty Act that energy companies and other businesses have opposed as too broad, she quoted the iconic American novel To Kill a Mocking Bird, as Reuters reported."It is not only a sin to kill a mockingbird, it is also a crime," the judge wrote, according to Reuters."That has been the letter of the law for the past century. But if the Department of the Interior has its way, many mockingbirds and other migratory birds that delight people and support ecosystems throughout the country will be killed without legal consequence."As The Hill noted, the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) has for over 100 years offered protections to 1,000 different types of birds, instigating penalties for companies whose projects or infrastructure harm them. Yet, in 2017, the Interior Department's Solicitor Daniel Jorjani, a former Koch Industries employee, advised punishing the oil and gas industry, construction companies, and others only if their work intentionally kills birds, effectively ending the spirit of the law that asks for the migratory patterns of birds to be considered when developing a project."The opinion freezes the MBTA in time as a hunting-regulation statute, preventing it from addressing modern threats to migrating bird populations," Caproni wrote in a decision vacating the opinion, calling it "an unpersuasive interpretation of the MBTA's unambiguous prohibition on killing protected birds," according to The Hill.

Bald Eagle Takes Out Government Drone -- A Michigan bald eagle proved that nature can still triumph over machines when it attacked and drowned a nearly $1,000 government drone.The rogue eagle tussled with a drone operated by the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) July 21, the department announced Thursday. EGLE asked the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) if it could issue a citation against the eagle, but the department said it had no authority over non-human wildlife."Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do," a DNR spokesman said. "Nature is a cruel and unforgiving mistress." The drone, a $950 Phantom 4 Pro Advanced, was helping to map the Lake Michigan shoreline for erosion when the eagle struck.EGLE environmental quality analyst and drone pilot Hunter King said he had commanded the drone to return from a mapping expedition near Escanaba in Michigan's Upper Peninsula because of weak satellite reception. He was watching it head back through a video screen when the image began to rotate violently. "It was like a really bad rollercoaster ride," King said. When he looked up, the drone had disappeared, and an eagle was racing away. A couple who had been birdwatching nearby said they had seen an eagle attack something, but did not know it was a drone. The eagle appeared to fly away from the incident unharmed. After the eagle struck, the drone took 3.5 seconds to plummet into the water, The Associated Press reported. During that time, it sent 27 warning notifications, including one indicating one of its propellers was missing, likely torn off by the bird. King and the couple tried and failed to find the fallen drone, EGLE said. Later attempts to recover the drone based on data pinpointing its location in the water also proved unsuccessful due to poor visibility.

A Plastics Spill on the Mississippi River But No Accountability in Sight - When I arrived on Sunday, August 9, scores of tiny plastic pellets lined the sandy bank of the Mississippi River downstream from New Orleans, Louisiana, where they glistened in the sun, not far from a War of 1812 battlefield. These precursors of everyday plastic products, also known as nurdles, spilled from a shipping container that fell off a cargo ship at a port in New Orleans the previous Sunday, August 2.   After seeing photographs by New Orleans artist Michael Pajon published on NOLA.com, I went to see if a cleanup of the spilled plastic was underway. A week after the spill, I saw no signs of a cleanup when I arrived in the early afternoon, but I did watch a group of tourists disembark from a riverboat that docked along the plastic-covered riverbank. By most accounts, the translucent plastic pellets are considered pollution, but government bureaucracy and regulatory technicalities are making accountability for removing these bits of plastic from the river’s banks and waters surprisingly challenging. “The petrochemicals present will pollute fish and wildlife for years as they degrade in the sun,” Scott Eustis with Healthy Gulf, an environmental advocacy group, wrote of the pellets in an email. “This is ominous for the August 2nd event,” he added, after learning that the nurdles still remain along the river.  Along with the National Transportation Safety Board, the U.S. Coast Guard is conducting a joint investigation of what happened but has yet to determine who is responsible for the incident at the Ports America facility in New Orleans that knocked four containers off the CMA CGM Bianca, a container ship, according to Sydney Phoenix, a Coast Guard spokesperson.As for a cleanup of the plastic pellets, Phoenix explained on a call, that because nurdles are not categorized as a hazardous material, the Coast Guard does not have the authority to call for a cleanup. Later by email she wrote, “Three of the containers were recovered immediately but one was not, containing the plastic resin pellets. It was recovered earlier this week.” She added that the “Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) has been notified.”

Sharks Are Polluted With Plastic, New Study Shows -There are trillions of microplastics in the ocean — they bob on the surface, float through the water column, and accumulate in clusters on the seafloor. With plastic being so ubiquitous, it's inevitable that marine organisms, such as sharks, will ingest them.A new study in Scientific Reports investigated microplastic ingestion in four species of demersal sharks found in the North Atlantic Ocean, which were captured as bycatch by a local fishery in Penzance, U.K. A team of six researchers, from the University of Exeter and the University of Leeds, examined the stomachs and digestive tracts of 46 sharks, and found that 67% contained microplastics. A total of 379 microplastics — plastic particles or fibers smaller than 5 millimeters, or a fifth of an inch — were found in the sampled sharks. Many of the plastic fibers were synthetic cellulose, the material found in polyester clothing and hygiene products such as face masks, which have become increasingly prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic. "Although many of the particles ingested by these sharks will be excreted eventually, they potentially remain inside the body long enough for inorganic pollutants and chemicals (attached to the particles), to enter into the bodies of these sharks." Parton said he found it surprising that sharks living off the coast of Penzance in Cornwall, on the southwestern tip of Britain, would contain so many plastic particles.  "I actually didn't expect to find as many as we did in these sharks," he said. "The waters around Cornwall are thought to be some of the most beautiful in the U.K., and so I didn't think there would be much pollution."  Parton's co-author, Tamara Galloway, holds a similar view. "We were not expecting to find microfibers from textiles in so many of our native shark species," Galloway, a marine biologist and professor of ecotoxicology at the University of Exeter, said in a statement. "Our study highlights how important it is to think before we throw things away." Demersal sharks can be found at depths of 5 to 900 meters (16 to 3,000 feet), although they tend to live and feed in the demersal zone of the ocean, which is near the seafloor. The four species of demersal sharks used in this study included the small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula), starry smooth-hound (Mustelus asterias), spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) and bull huss (Scyliorhinus stellaris).

  As acid rain is curtailed, wheat gets less sulfur needed for tasty bread - Less acid rain is good for the environment, but potentially bad for bread, cereals and pasta. A decline in U.S. power-plant emissions over the last 30 years means the air has less sulfur, a critical nutrient for wheat and many other crops that researchers are now working to replace with fertilizer applications. For decades sulfur seeped into the soil via acid rain, a toxic precipitation that is harmful to human health but helped crops and made for tastier bread. Bread’s delicious structure is mainly thanks to the gluten in wheat. Gluten gives bread its elastic nature and allows pizza dough to be stretched and tossed in the air. But gluten is held together by sulfur-to-sulfur bonds. Without enough sulfur, bread has a harder crust and poor crumb structure — resulting in something more like a brick than a baguette. In Kansas, the sulfur deficit is plainly visible each spring as wheat plants in some areas emerge from their winter dormancy and resume growing. Most wheat fields are green, but some have a distinctive yellowish tint, the result of new leaves emerging from the tops of wheat plants low on sulfur. European farmers have been applying sulfur for years, after research in the mid-2000s showed sulfur-deficient wheat when combined with other ingredients in baking can form acrylamide, a chemical linked to cancer. In the United States, sulfur deficiency “is more of an emerging problem,” said Mary Guttieri, a U.S. Department of Agriculture researcher who is studying sulfur and Kansas wheat. “It’s not been something that these farmers’ grandparents or even their parents needed to worry about.” Adding sulfur on top of the common nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers that U.S. farmers have applied for years, is a boon to fertilizer companies, but raises costs for growers at a time commodity prices have slumped due to trade tensions with China and years of overproduction.

Powerful Midwest Derecho Slams Trees and Buildings, Knocks Out Power to More Than a Million -A powerful series of thunderstorms roared across the Midwest on Monday, downing trees, damaging structures and knocking out power to more than a million people.The storms, which produced winds of more than 100 miles per hour, formed a phenomenon known as a derecho, a long-lasting, far-spreading windstorm caused by a series of thunderstorms, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)."This is our version of a hurricane," Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini told The Associated Press. While derechos usually occur one to two times a year, they do not usually blow as hard as Monday's storm, National Weather Service (NWS) scientist Patrick Marsh told The New York Times. He compared it to the "Super Derecho" of 2009. Gensini, meanwhile, said it would emerge as one of the strongest in recent history and one of the most extreme weather events of 2020.The storm system began in southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska Monday morning before blasting through Iowa, northern and central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southwest Michigan, Indiana and northwest Ohio, The Weather Channel reported.Winds of up to 100 miles per hour ripped through Marshall County, Iowa, leading to several injuries and extensive property damage, the county's homeland security coordinator Kim Elder told The Associated Press. Elder said the storm blew over trees and cars, downed power lines, ripped the roofs off of buildings and started fires. All told, a third of customers in Iowa were without power, according to CNN.

Powerful windstorm leaves 4 dead, 1.5 million without power across US Midwest  -On Monday, a large swath of the US Midwest, including portions of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin, was hit with a powerful derecho storm that claimed four lives and left over 1.5 million residents without power in its aftermath.A derecho is a long-lived, straight-line, widespread windstorm. The name of the storm is derived from the Spanish word for “straight,” which describes the direction of its wind path, in contrast to the spinning wind path of a tornado. However, the storm itself causes other destructive weather events in its orbit, including tornadoes, flash floods, and hurricane-force winds.  Derechos develop into mesoscale convective systems—similar to a small scale tropical storm—and excessive heat in an area especially fuels their formation due to the convective currents which are more likely to form under these conditions, measured as convective available potential energy (CAPE).  Wind gusts peaked at over 110 mph in parts of Iowa, higher than some Category 1 hurricanes, indicating that it could be one of the strongest such storms in recent history. A devastating derecho in 2012, which swept from Iowa to the East Coast of the US, reached peak wind gusts of 91 mph, leaving 22 dead, 4.2 million without power and causing $2.9 billion worth of damage.  From Nebraska to Indiana 1.5 million residents were left without power in the aftermath of Monday’s storm, including 360,000 in the Chicago metropolitan area, and thousands still may not have power restored until early next week. On Thursday, over 250,000 residents in Iowa still did not have power. Restoring power has been complicated by the extensive damage of the storm, which wiped out homes, flipped vehicles, and downed large trees in both rural and metropolitan areas in the storm’s path.Many tornadoes developed out of the storm, with 25 counted across the state of Illinois alone, including one which touched down at the far north end of the city of Chicago before turning into a waterspout in Lake Michigan. A total of four deaths have been reported so far, and the total extent of injuries and deaths is emerging as residents have been trapped in vehicles and buildings damaged by the storm. In Iowa, two volunteer firefighters were killed, a 41-year-old man who was attempting to restore power and a 41-year-old woman who was struck by a tree. A 63-year-old cyclist was killed after a tree struck him during the storm. In Indiana, a 73-year-old woman died in Fort Wayne after the high winds destroyed her trailer home. She was found by firefighters under debris clinging to a five-year-old boy, who survived.

Tropical Storm Kyle Forms, Unlikely to Affect Land -- Jeff Masters - The record-busy 2020 Atlantic hurricane season brought another addition to its bevy of early-season storms at 5 p.m. EDT August 14, when Tropical Storm Kyle formed off the coast of Maryland.Kyle arrived well ahead of the previous earliest appearance by the Atlantic season's eleventh named storm – Katrina on August 24, 2005. Seven other Atlantic storms have set similar records during this already-hyperactive 2020 season. However, the majority of 2020's impressive herd of early-season storms have been short-lived; only two made it to category 1 hurricane strength. As a result, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE – a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season – has been unusually low for the first 10 storms of a season, according to statistics tweeted by Sam Lillo: Notwithstanding its historic timing, Kyle is not expected to bring major impacts to land. As of 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, Kyle was located 280 miles southeast of Providence, Rhode Island, moving east-northeast at 21 mph with top sustained winds at 45 mph. Kyle was over the Gulf Stream, where waters were a record-warm 27-28 degrees Celsius (81-82°F), which is about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F) above average. Satellite images showed that high wind shear resulting from strong upper-level winds out of the southwest were keeping the low-level center exposed to view, and all of Kyle's heavy thunderstorms were confined to the east side of the center. High wind shear will affect Kyle throughout the weekend, and it is unlikely that the storm will become a hurricane. Meanwhile, the season's record-earliest tenth named storm, Tropical Storm Josephine, was also struggling with high wind shear as it traced out a path over the open ocean. At 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, Josephine was located about 310 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 15 mph with top sustained winds at 45 mph. Josephine is expected to bring one to three inches of rain over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Josephine will encounter steadily rising wind shear through Monday, peaking at a very high 30 – 35 knots. This high shear is likely to destroy Josephine's circulation by Monday, before the storm can affect any other land areas.

 New York Prepared for Another Sandy, But It Got Isaias Instead  -- After Hurricane Sandy plunged much of the New York region into darkness in 2012, local electric utilities spent more than $3.5 billion to ensure it wouldn’t happen again. And yet, one week after Isaias roared through, more than 40,000 New York-area customers remain without power. Over 1 million homes and businesses were still in the dark as late as five days after the storm. Why? The short answer: Utilities girded for another Sandy. They got Isaias instead. While New York-area power providers have funneled billions into protecting their infrastructure from the storm surge and flooding of a Sandy, they say there’s only so much they can do against the wind gusts of an Isaias, which can tear down mature trees and snap utility poles. That means occasional, lengthy blackouts could become the new normal for New Yorkers, particularly as storms grow both more frequent and more severe due to the warming climate. “These major storms slamming trees and limbs and other debris into pieces of infrastructure are going to cause outages,” said Jon Wellinghoff, former chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the founder of GridPolicy Consulting. “There’s no way to avoid that.” Isaias’s rampage through the Northeast initially left more than 2 million homes and businesses without power, becoming one of the worst storm-related outages since Sandy, which blacked out almost 5 million customers in New York State and New Jersey. As of Tuesday, lingering outages mostly affected Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk counties in New York State and Fairfield and Litchfield counties in Connecticut. The utilities maintain the money they’ve spent strengthening the grid in recent years helped them restore service faster than they could have otherwise. But public officials -- and a few utility executives -- say the companies underestimated Isaias, failing to have enough workers on hand to launch into repairs once the fast-moving storm cleared the region.  In Connecticut, Eversource Energy has been allowed to spend over $660 million under a infrastructure hardening plan that was approved in 2013. In July, the company said it’s spending $83 million this year trimming branches and cutting trees along 4,200 miles of roads -- work that can pay dividends during storms like Isaias. Yet, some of its customers were still in the dark seven days after the storm hit.

China Faces Food Shortage As Droughts, Flooding, And Pests Ruin Harvest - Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua recently asked the governors of each province in China to make sure the sown areas of agricultural crops would not shrink and crop yield won’t be reduced this year. At a food security meeting held in Beijing on July 27, he warned that governors would  be punished if they failed to uphold the promise, including with dismissals.And when Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited northeastern Jilin Province on July 22, he told the local government to treat grain production as a priority task. The top officials’ emphasis on food supplies raised questions about whether China is facing a severe food shortage this year.In early July, the government organ China National Grain and Oils Information Center released its estimates that the corn supply gap in the 2020-2021 fiscal year would be 25 million metric tons—more than double the previous estimated 12 million metric tons.On Aug. 5, the Center estimated that China would import six million metric tons of wheat in the 12 months from June 2020 to May 2021, which would be the highest amount in the past seven years. The Center said the wheat would likely come from France, Russia, Lithuania, and Kazakhstan. In late January, Chinese authorities mandated that people stay at home to prevent the spread of COVID-19, farmers among them. Around March, restrictions eased and most farmers were allowed to go out again. But not long after, extreme weather across large swathes of China led to the destruction of crops. Since early June, heavy rain has befallen the country’s south, center, and east. Meanwhile, parts of the northwest and northeast are suffering from droughts. Pests such as locusts and fall armyworms have also invaded crops.  Farmers told The Epoch Times that they suspected that they would lose their harvest this year.Chinese farmers plant rice in 13 provinces, including Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Fujian. All these provinces were impacted by flooding in June and July. Farmers plant rice at three different times of the year. The early season is planted in late March, and harvested in late June. The middle season is planted in early May and harvested in late September. The late season is planted in late June and harvested in mid-October. The flooding in June and July impacted all three seasons of rice planting.

 Phoenix breaks its record for most 110-degree days in a year - Phoenix, Ariz., has in the past few days twice broken its record for the most days in a year with temperatures of at least 110 degrees, according to data from the National Weather Service. Sunday marked the 34th day in 2020 at or above that temperature, beating a record from 2011. "We did 33 this year, which was set yesterday, and today we're probably going to have day 34, which is a record nobody really wants," meteorologist Andrew Deemer had told the Arizona Republic. The record lasted only a day, with Phoenix reaching 111 degrees on Monday, making 35 days. "Most likely it'll be over 40 days and counting by this time or earlier next week, and who knows when it's going to end," meteorologist Chris Breckenridge told the Republic. Federal deficit at $2.8T breaks annual record with 2 months to spare Stocks surge, putting S&P in striking distance of record Another meteorologist, Matthew Hirsch, told the newspaper that Tuesday, with a predicted high of below 110, was likely to be the coolest day this week. Hirsch said arid conditions were the primary driver of the heat. "The main reason it's been so hot is because it's been so dry,” he said. “Normally when you get moisture it keeps things a little bit cooler but the pattern has been really persistent in such a way that we really haven’t been able to import much moisture into the area so we've had this persistent dryness and then heat comes along with that." An excessive heat watch for the area is in place Wednesday through Sunday and may yet be upgraded to a heat warning.

Ocean Warming Threatens Coral Reefs and Soon Could Make It Harder to Restore Them --I have studied how global stressors such as ocean warming and acidification affect marine invertebrates for more than a decade. In a recently published study, I worked with Gregory Asner to analyze the impacts of temperature on coral reef restoration projects. Our results showed that climate change has raised sea surface temperatures close to a point that will make it very hard for outplanted corals to survive. Coral reefs support over 25% of marine life by providing food, shelter and a place for fish and other organisms to reproduce and raise young. Today, ocean warming driven by climate change is stressing reefs worldwide.Rising ocean temperatures cause bleaching events – episodes in which corals expel the algae that live inside them and provide the corals with most of their food, as well as their vibrant colors. When corals lose their algae, they become less resistant to stressors such as disease and eventually may die. Outplanting coral is expensive: According to one recent study, the median cost is about US$160,000 per acre, or $400,000 per hectare. It also is time-consuming, with scuba divers placing each outplanted coral by hand. So it's important to maximize coral survival by choosing the best locations.We used data from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's Coral Reef Watch program, which collects daily satellite-derived measurements of sea surface temperature. We paired this information with survival rates from hundreds of coral outplanting projects worldwide.We found that coral survival was likely to drop below 50% if the maximum temperature experienced at the restoration site exceeded 86.9 degrees Fahrenheit (30.5 degrees Celsius). This temperature threshold mirrors the tolerance of natural coral reefs.

‘Explosive’ Southern California Lake Fire Spreads to 10,000 Acres Within Hours -An "explosive" wildfire ignited in Los Angeles county Wednesday, growing to 10,000 acres in a little less than three hours.The so-called Lake Fire, which prompted evacuations and road closures, is remarkable for spreading so fast so early in the fire season without strong winds to drive it."It's pretty explosive fire behavior," Angeles National Forest Fire Chief Robert Garcia told CBS Los Angeles. "It's typically what we see a little bit later in the season and often driven by wind. The fuel, moisture conditions and the fire at this particular location with the slope, it really created the recipe for rapid fire growth."The fire ignited around 3:40 p.m. Wednesday and is still zero percent contained, according to the most recent information from the U.S. Forest Service's InciWeb. It is burning about 65 miles northeast of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest, between Lake Hughes and Lake Castaic, USA TODAY reported.Evacuations were ordered for the entire Lake Hughes area Wednesday night. All told, residents of around 100 homes and buildings were told to flee.Evacuees were directed to the Highland High School, but, because of the coronavirus pandemic, will have to remain in their cars, CBS LA reported.In addition to its early start and rapid spread, the fire is notable because it is burning vegetation that hasn't been set ablaze since 1968. "Portions of the forest [haven't] had a significant amount of fire in a very long time, 1968, for a large portion of that area, it hasn't burned since then," Garcia told ABC 7. There have been no reports of injuries and no official tally of structural damage, according to ABC 7. However, the fire was seen burning several homes. Reporter Veronica Miracle tweeted that she had spoken to a man who had fled his home as a wall of flames approached. "He thinks his house is gone," she said. Television footage early Thursday showed buildings burned to the ground, The Associated Press reported, but it was not clear if they were homes or not. Los Angeles County Deputy Fire Chief David Richardson said Wednesday night the flames might have burned some outbuildings. More than 500 firefighters are combating the blaze, according to InciWeb. The area is expected to record temperatures in the 90s this afternoon. Smoke from the fire could be seen from as far as Venice Beach Wednesday.

Millions of Older Californians Live Where Wildfire Threatens. Mostly, They're on Their Own - The fire refugees kept calling, all of them elderly, all of them newly homeless after Paradise burned in 2018. Some 70 miles to the south in Grass Valley, Katrina Hardin answered those calls. Hardin managed a senior apartment complex — none were available, so she begged her friends to open up their spare rooms. The demographics of the victims haunted her: About three-quarters of those who died in the Camp Fire were over the age of 65. Same with the fires that ravaged Sonoma and Napa the year before. Hardin fears for people in her own Nevada County, known as a haven for retirees, where 96% of the land is at heightened risk for wildfire. “We’ve got all these elderly people — their sons and daughters may be living in Southern California, in the Bay Area, in another state,” Hardin said. “The elderly are living by themselves here with just their neighbors.” Across the state, about 2 million people age 65 and older live in areas where wildfire is a serious threat, according to a KQED and CalMatters investigation. But at the state and county level, no public agency has legal responsibility for ensuring that these older adults are able to evacuate in a disaster. The county response involves alerting residents of immediate danger and providing evacuation shelter, but not the evacuation in between. “There is no regulatory mandate for us to check on individuals,” said Tamaran Cook, former head of adult services and in-home health services for Nevada County. “There’s nothing statutory that’s consistent across all the counties in the state.” The county has generally relied on aggressive outreach to help people with fire preparation — hosting informational meetings, sending newsletters. The county even produced a movie trailer that plays at the beginning of films in theaters, featuring people packing go bags and cleaning gutters. The county asks people not to overburden 911. Across formats the message is consistent: get yourself ready, because if a fire comes, you’re on your own.

California wildfires: Rolling blackouts for first time in decade as temperature hits 112F and blazes threaten LA - "Extreme heat" was driving demand for electricity, according to Anne Gonzales, a spokeswoman for the state's grid operator told the Associated Press. The agency said that the heatwave throughout the region has impeded the state's ability to rely on other power from outside the state. Temperatures could reach as high as 112 degrees (44.4 Celsius) across the state over the weekend, the National Weather Service has warned. The blackout order was lifted before 9pm on Friday and power was restored to affected households before midnight. But the heat wave is forecast to extend through next week, with the National Weather Service declaring excessive heat watches and warnings and heat advisories for much of the western US. More than 2 million people were affected by preemptive power shutoffs in 2019 as electrical malfunction and high winds with dry conditions threatened wildfires in northern California. "While temperatures in Texas will gradually moderate closer to normal during the next couple of days, the heat will expand and intensify across the interior Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin where widespread record high temperatures will be likely for the coming days," the National Weather Service announced on Saturday. "Actual high temperatures are forecast to top 100 degrees at many locations, along with a heightened risk of wildfires." Fires in Angeles National Lake Forest outside Los Angeles threatened thousands of homes and more than 27 miles (70 km) of brush and forestry as firefighters worked to contain the blaze in temperatures reaching 100 degrees (38 Celsius) on Friday, fire officials reported. The so-called Lake Fire forced hundreds of evacuations and damaged at least 21 structures, according to fire officials. It has spread to more than 17,000 acres after the blaze erupted on Wednesday. The US Forest Service believes it may have been caused by human activity. Firefighters are actively responding to several fires in the state, the largest of which is the Apple fire, which has burned more than 33,00 acres after it was sparked on 31 July. Law enforcement in Azusa, California are searching for a man who is believed to have intentionally started a 2,500-acre fire in Los Angeles County. Osmin Palencia, 36, is wanted for arson in connection with a blaze that erupted on Thursday. More than 80 million people were under heat alerts on Friday, extending from the central part of the US through the entire West Coast. Affected cities include Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Portland and Seattle, as well as most of California.

Bid to save Alaskan wild salmon receives surprise boost from Trump Jr  - A surprise intervention from Donald Trump Jr has breathed life into efforts to protect the biggest remaining wild salmon run on the planet. Earlier this week, Trump Jr expressed his opposition to the controversial Pebble mine at the headwaters of Alaska’s Bristol Bay. The move breaks with the Trump administration’s efforts to advance the mine’s development. Trump Jr retweeted a tweet that called on his father and the Environmental Protection Agency to block the mine’s development. He added: “As a sportsman who has spent plenty of time in the area I agree 100%. The headwaters of Bristol Bay and the surrounding fishery are too unique and fragile to take any chances with.” Opponents of the mine are cheered. “Those of us who’ve been in the fight, fighting elbow to elbow for years, decided we’re going to have a moderate celebration,” said Nanci Morris Lyon, owner of the Bear Trail Lodge, who guided Trump Jr, his son, and his brother Eric Trump on their August 2014 fishing trip to Bristol Bay. “We all agreed that it’s the first glimmer of hope we’ve seen in some time.” The fishery – home to all five species of Pacific salmon – regularly supplies more than half of the world’s entire sockeye catch. It’s the backbone of a $1.5bn commercial and sport fishing industry that supports 14,000 workers every year, and is the foundation of the traditional ways of life of the indigenous people who represent 80% of the region’s population.

Canada's Last Intact Ice Shelf the Size of Manhattan Collapses Due to Global Warming A 4,000-year-old ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed into the sea, leaving Canada without any fully intact ice shelves, Reuters reported. The Milne Ice Shelf lost more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, said researchers who monitored its collapse.Unlike glaciers, ice shelves are part of the ocean.The Milne Ice Shelf on Ellesmere Island in Canada's Nunavut territory fell into the Arctic Sea and started to drift before breaking into two large chunks. The Copernicus Sentinel satellite captured the entire event, CNNreported.Time-lapse photos on Twitter show the satellite animation between July 30 and August 4, as the ice shelf lost approximately 43 percent of its area. When the fallen pieces split in two, the larger one formed an iceberg roughly the size of Manhattan, according to Business Insider.  The massive break was first noticed by ice analyst Adrienne White of the Canadian Ice Service, the AP reported."This is a huge, huge block of ice," White told the AP. "If one of these is moving toward an oil rig, there's nothing you can really do aside from move your oil rig."The break resulted from polar amplification, which causes the Arctic to warm faster than the rest of the world, Business Insider reported. For example, today's polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990s."Above normal air temperatures, offshore winds and open water in front of the ice shelf are all part of the recipe for ice shelf break up," the Canadian Ice Service said on Twitter, according to Reuters.

Arctic Sea Ice Melting by 2035 Is Possible, Study Finds -The temperature of the Arctic matters to the entire world: it helps to keep the global climate fairly cool. Scientists now say that by 2035 there could be an end to Arctic sea ice.The northern polar ocean's sea ice is a crucial element in the Earth system: because it is highly reflective, it sends solar radiation back out into space. Once it's melted, there's no longer any protection for the darker water and rock beneath, and nothing to prevent them absorbing the incoming heat.High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial – the warm period around 127,000 years ago – have puzzled scientists for decades.Now the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre climate model has enabled an international research team to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with the present day. Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.What is striking about the latest research is the date it suggests for a possible total melt − 2035. Many studieshave thought a mid-century crisis likely, with another even carefully specifying 2044 as the year to watch. So a breathing space of only 15 years may surprise some experts.During spring and early summer shallow pools of water form on the surface of the Arctic sea ice. These "melt ponds" help to determine how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK's most advanced physical representation of the Earth's climate and a critical tool for climate research, and it incorporates sea ice and melt ponds. The researchers report their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change. Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, they concluded that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea ice melt. A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.

 Global Warming Could Unlock Carbon From Tropical Soil -  Humble dirt could pack an unexpected climate punch, according to a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature. An experiment that heated soil underneath a tropical rainforest to mimic temperatures expected in the coming decades found that hotter soils released 55 percent more planet-warming carbon dioxide than did nearby unwarmed areas.If the results apply throughout the tropics, much of the carbon stored underground could be released as the planet heats up.“The loss rate is huge,” said Andrew Nottingham, an ecologist at the University of Edinburgh, who led the study. “It’s a bad news story.”The thin skin of soil that covers much of our planet’s land stores vast amounts of carbon — more, in total, than in all plants and the atmosphere combined. That carbon feeds hordes of bacteria and fungi, which build some of it into more microbes while respiring the rest into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Many of these microbes grow more active at warmer temperatures, increasing their digestion and respiration rates.The finding “is another example of why we need to worry more” about how fast the globe is warming, In an attempt to forecast the future, ecologists began in the early 1990s building apparatuses to artificially heat soils. Such experiments in temperate and boreal forests have shown that carbon-rich soils almost always belch carbon dioxide when warmed. In 2016, a group of researchers estimated that, by 2050,soils could release so much of the planet-warming gas that it would be like adding the carbon emissions of a new country the size of the United States. But that study left out the perpetually warm, mega-biodiverse tropics, where a third of all soil carbon resides. Figuring out the fate of this carbon would require grappling with the many pitfalls of doing research in the tropics: humidity, storms and a multitude of hungry animals that can take a toll on research equipment — chewing through electrical wires or protective coverings, for example — and on researchers themselves.The results from Dr. Nottingham’s team are sobering: Over two years, warmed soils spewed out 55 percent more carbon than control plots. “This is a very large response,” said Dr. Torn, who runs a similar warming experiment in a California forest that reported a roughly 35 percent increase in carbon emissions after two years. “It’s one of the largest I’ve heard of.”If the entire tropics were to behave similarly, the researchers estimate that 65 billion metric tons of carbon would enter the atmosphere by 2100 — more than six times the annual emissions from all human-related sources.

 Warming Tropical Soil Emits Unexpectedly Large Amounts of CO2, New Study Finds - One of the concerns about a warming planet is the feedback loop that will emerge. That is, as the planet warms, it will melt permafrost, which will release trapped carbon and lead to more warming and more melting. Now, a new study has shown that the feedback loop won't only happen in the nether regions of the north and south, but in the tropics as well, according to a new paper in Nature.Scientists warmed tropical soil to a level that was consistent with projections for how much the planet will warm up by the end of the century. When they heated the soil 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, they found that the soil released 55 percent more carbon dioxide than the control soil, according to the paper, as Agence-France Presse (AFP) reported.The takeaway is that tropical soils are far more sensitive to global heating than researchers had previously thought. It turns out that experimental evidence to confirm that long-held belief was missing."Soils form a living skin around the Earth," said Andrew Nottingham, the paper's lead author and a researcher at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, as Cosmos Magazine reported. "They contain vast amounts of organic matter – more carbon is held in soils than is held in plants and the atmosphere put together."The complex carbon cycle has traditionally been held in balance by the earth's soil, which contains a teeming ecosystem of microorganisms, bacteria, fungi and insects that counterbalance the carbon released by the dead leaves and decaying plants. However, at warmer temperatures, the microbes speed up their rate of digestion and respiration, which kicks more carbon into the atmosphere and away from the soil, according toThe New York Times."The inputs of carbon to soils from plant detritus (dead wood, leaves and roots) roughly balance the losses to the atmosphere produced by the respiration of soil microorganisms that feed on that material," wrote Eric Davidson, a researcher at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, in a comment in Nature accompanying the study. "However, just a 1 percent imbalance of global soil-carbon effluxes over influxes would equal about 10 percent of global anthropogenic carbon emissions."The finding "is another example of why we need to worry more," said Davidson, as The New York Times reported.

Air pollution is much worse than we thought. Climate change is far from the only problem with fossil fuels. - In the late 1960s, the US saw regular, choking smog descend over New York City and Los Angeles, 100,000 barrels of oil spilled off the coast of Santa Barbara, California, and, perhaps most famously, fires burning on the surface of the Cuyahoga River in Ohio.  From the ’70s through the beginning of the 21st century, the fight against fossil fuels was a fight about pollution, especially air pollution. In the ensuing decades, the focus has shifted to global warming, and fossil fuels have largely been reframed as a climate problem. And that makes sense, given the enormous implications of climate change for long-term human well-being. But there’s an irony involved: The air pollution case against fossil fuels is still the best case!In fact, even as attention has shifted to climate change, the air pollution case has grown stronger and stronger, as the science on air pollution has advanced by leaps and bounds. Researchers are now much more able to pinpoint air pollution’s direct and indirect effects, and the news has been uniformly bad.The evidence is now clear enough that it can be stated unequivocally: It would be worth freeing ourselves from fossil fuels even if global warming didn’t exist. Especially now that clean energy has gotten so cheap, the air quality benefits alone are enough to pay for the energy transition.This conclusion has been reaffirmed by the latest air quality research, presented at a recent hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform by Drew Shindell, Nicholas professor of earth science at Duke University (and a lead author on both recent IPCC reports). Shindell’s testimony reveals that the effects of air pollution are roughly twice as bad as previously estimated. That is a bombshell — in a sane world, it would be front-page news across the country. “The air quality scientific community has hypothesized this for at least a decade, but research advances have let us quantify and confirm this notion, over and over,” says Rebecca Saari, an air quality expert who teaches in civil and environmental engineering at the University of Waterloo. “The air quality ‘co-benefits’ are generally so valuable that they exceed the cost of climate action, often many times over.”

AIR POLLUTION: EPA official shepherds rule shift of interest to ex-employer -- Wednesday, August 12, 2020 -- When EPA embarked on an overhaul of its regulatory cost-benefit forecasting requirements in 2018, a trade group for heating and cooling equipment makers was happy to offer four pages of written comments and suggestions.Two years later, the group's then-top lobbyist is now at EPA, where she's helping to shepherd the first installment of that overhaul to fruition.Kelley Raymond, previously government relations director at the Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute, joined EPA last November as a senior policy adviser in the air office (E&E News PM, Oct. 28, 2019).During a virtual public meeting yesterday, she took a lead role in walking an agency advisory panel through the draft rule to require cost-benefit analyses for all significant Clean Air Act proposals in the future.Given that EPA routinely faces court challenges to major air regulations, "the public might have a lack of beliefs that we are doing these rules in the right way," Raymond told members of the Science Advisory Board who are reviewing the draft rule's scientific and technical basis. Accordingly, she said, EPA wants to provide a "feeling of trust in the agency and the consistency and transparency in which we are promulgating" those regulations. Environmental and public health groups view the draft rule as a ploy designed to make it harder for EPA to pursue new air quality safeguards. Industry organizations, by contrast, are largely supportive. When EPA launched the overhaul in 2018 by collecting feedback through an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, comments from an air conditioning institute attorney included recommendations on state implementation of national air quality air standards and other programs that fall squarely within the air office's bailiwick.

EPA Expected to Allow More Methane Emissions From Oil and Gas Industry -In the coming days, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to use its power to roll back yet another Obama-era environmental protection meant to curb air pollution and slow the climate crisis.This new rollback concerns methane, a potent greenhouse gas destructive to the earth's atmosphere. The EPA is expected to make the announcement on Friday that it is ending a stricture put in place by the previous administration that curbed the amount of methane that could be released in oil and gas exploration, as The Wall Street Journal reported.Since the rule is not official yet, anonymous officials at the agency told The Wall Street Journal that the rollback will scrap the new rules that required oil and gas producers to have systems, checks and processes in place to identify and address methane leaks on their rigs.The rollbacks do not end there. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the EPA will also end its oversight of ozone pollutants and emissions from pipelines and storage sites. Additionally, the agency will reduce its requirement for monitoring and reporting certain pollutants.The EPA's decision to end its oversight and slacken regulation may result in an additional 5 million metric tons of methane pollution released into the atmosphere each year. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that can be 25 times more impactful than carbon dioxide in equal quantities, as The Hill reported. In 2018, it accounted for nearly 10 percent of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity, mostly from the oil and gas industry, although commercial agriculture and the cattle industry are also large contributors to methane emissions.

EMISSIONS: White House sought to further weaken EPA methane rule -- Wednesday, August 12, 2020 -- The White House appears to have lost its bid to make an upcoming rule for oil and gas emissions less protective than EPA proposed. The EPA rule proposed for monitoring and repairing natural gas leaks, which is set to be final tomorrow alongside another rule that replaces Obama-era regulations for petroleum methane, was already weaker than the 2016 safeguards it replaces. Then the White House stepped in with its own request: Reduce the burden for oil and gas companies by requiring fewer inspections for leaks. But the White House's determination to make it less stringent than EPA's proposal appears to have succeeded only in delaying the rule's rollout. It's unclear whether additional questions from OMB led to the rules being finalized this week instead of in late July. But the substance of the disagreement has started to emerge: The White House wanted a lighter requirement for oil and gas producers to inspect their well sites and compressors for leaks. The Obama-era rule mandated that oil and gas producers inspect all well sites twice a year to ensure that they aren't leaking methane — a powerful greenhouse gas that can contribute more than 80 times as much warming to the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The EPA proposal under Trump, released in 2018, created a two-tiered program that required owners of large wellheads to inspect their operations more frequently than those of smaller operations. EPA took comment on two options: annual or semiannual inspections for large sites and annual or biennial inspections for smaller sites. The agency indicated a preference for the more frequent inspection option. But months before EPA put out its proposal in autumn of 2018, political appointees at the Trump White House proposed weakening the rule beyond what EPA envisioned. EDF's summary of the interagency dialogue between April and August of 2018 shows that the White House repeatedly advocated for less stringent options, matching those sought by industry groups including the American Petroleum Institute and Independent Petroleum Association of America. The Wall Street Journal first reported that White House political staff had pushed for a laxer monitoring and repair schedule, but was ultimately unsuccessful. EPA argued that such a rule wouldn't be defensible in court because the analysis for the rule would show a pronounced increase in projected air pollution. Industry experts who follow the rule say they're now hearing that wellheads of all sizes might be required to monitor their operations every six months. But most said they were still looking forward to seeing the rule finalized this week after advocating for it for three years.

Trump lifts Obama-era regulations on methane, a potent climate-warming gas - The Trump administration on Thursday weakened Obama-era regulations designed to reduce climate-warming methane gas emissions from oil and gas fields. The Environmental Protection Agency's new rule, which has been in progress for over a year, would eliminate federal requirements for oil and gas companies to monitor and repair methane leaks from pipelines, storage facilities and wells. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler announced the rollback to the 2016 rule at an event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, home to the country's booming natural gas reservoirs and a key battleground state for the November presidential election. "EPA has been working hard to fulfill President Trump's promise to cut burdensome and ineffective regulations for our domestic energy industry," Wheeler said. "Regulatory burdens put into place by the Obama-Biden Administration fell heavily on small and medium-sized energy businesses." Environmental groups and lawmakers swiftly condemned the administration's ruling and the Natural Resources Defense Council said Thursday that it will put up a legal fight. "The Trump EPA is giving the oil and gas industry a green light to keep leaking enormous amounts of climate pollution into the air," said David Doniger, head of climate policy at the NRDC. "We will see EPA in court." The methane pollution reversal is latest move by the administration to weaken a slew of environmental regulations, a longtime effort that has not been hindered by the coronavirus pandemic. In July, the administration finalized a rollback to the country's landmark environmental law, the National Environmental Policy Act, in order to speed approval for federal projects like pipelines, highways and power plants. The administration has weakened more than 100 environmental rules and regulations since 2016. Scientists say that rising levels of methane, a greenhouse gas that is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide, is a main driver of climate change. Methane accounts for 10% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. Globally, 60% of methane emissions are from human activity. "As with Covid-19, the Trump administration is ignoring science to gut oil and gas methane pollution safeguards," said Lauren Pagel, policy director at Earthworks, which tracks methane leaks at oil and gas sites. "But as with Americans dying from the Covid crisis, optical gas imaging shows the oil and gas methane pollution that is fueling the climate crisis." The sustained increase in methane, combined with other greenhouse gases, could heat up the atmosphere by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, well above the Paris climate accord goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees. "The Trump administration's rush to wreck even modest methane regulations is a transparent political move, a favor for some of his biggest political backers," said Charlie Cray, a researcher at Greenpeace U.S.A., an environmental non-profit. The EPA will still require leak monitoring but not directly for methane gas. The agency will continue to require oil and gas companies monitor and reduce smog-forming compounds at some well sites and during processing, but not pipelines.

How Climate Alarmism Hijacked Environmentalism … -Like many others, Michael Shellenberger feared climate change was an existential threat to human civilization. He has devoted three decades of his life to environmental activism and improving the lives of people in poor or developing nations. At age 16, he threw a fundraiser for Rainforest Action Network. He’s fought to protect redwood trees in California, traveled to the Congo to study the impact of wood fuel use on gorillas, sought better working conditions for factory workers in Asia, and pushed the U.S. government to fund renewable energy.Now, he believes the climate movement is radical, alarmist, and causing anxiety and depression, especially among young people. One in five British children say they’ve had nightmares about it, according to a large national survey earlier this year.Although global temperatures are rising and humans are a major contributor, that doesn’t mean the world is ending, Shellenberger argues in his new book, “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All.” Contrary to what media headlines would suggest, climate change hasn’t made natural disasters worse. Fires, for instance, have declined 25 percent around the world from 1998 to 2015. And in California and Australia, where fires have increased, the biggest contributing factors were humans allowing wood fuel to build up and constructing homes near forests—not climate change.Claims of crop failure are similarly exaggerated, in his view. Humans already grow enough food for 10 billion people, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predict crop yields will continue increasing.Global sea levels are rising, but Shellenberger believes humans can adapt in the decades to come. The Netherlands managed to become a wealthy nation while adapting to having one-third of its landmass below sea level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates sea levels could rise 2.7 feet by 2100; some areas of the Netherlands are as low as 20 feet below sea level.To Shellenberger, climate alarmism is creating more problems than it solves. It’s excluding viable solutions such as nuclear energy, preventing desperately needed development in impoverished nations, and diverting attention away from serious environmental problems, like overfishing.

Trump calls Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 'real beauty' who knows nothing about economy as he slams Green New Deal –  President Donald Trump on Thursday, August 6, slammed one of his political opponents, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, saying she is “a real beauty” who “knows nothing about the economy”. The president was speaking at an event in the battleground state of Ohio where he launched an attack against the Democratic Party, saying its leaders wanted to “inflict a socialist takeover of the US economy known as the horrendous Green New Deal”.  In February last year, Democratic Senator Ed Markey and Cortez, a representative from New York, introduced the Green New Deal resolution which looks at addressing the dual issues of climate change and economic inequality. Taking a dig at AOC, who became the youngest member of the Congress in 2018, Trump said the package “was conceived by a young woman AOC — AOC plus three, I say — AOC, that’s a real beauty, isn’t it?”  “She knows as much about the environment — do we have any young children here? — as that young child over there. I think he knows more. And she certainly knows nothing about the economy,” said the Republican leader, who doesn’t believe climate change is a real thing. The poll-bound President also said AOC’s policies could result in the American economy crumbling like that of Venezuela. “Venezuela was a very wealthy country 20 years ago — one of the wealthiest per capita, one of the wealthiest, tremendous oil reserves, everything. Now they don’t have food. They don’t have water. They don’t have medicine. They don’t have anything. Same thing could happen,” Trump said.He then slammed the Democrats for their opposition to  fracking and connected it with Ohio’s economy. “They want to ban fracking, which will demolish your state. It will demolish Ohio oil and gas jobs. They want to rejoin the disastrous Paris Climate Accord, where you’ll pay billions and billions of dollars for the privilege of getting ripped off by other countries,” he said.

Wind Farms Built on Carbon-Rich Peat Bogs Lose Their Ability to Fight Climate Change - - In our recent study, we found that wind farms in Spain are being built on rare peat bogs that store vast quantities of planet-warming carbon. Because these habitats are so poorly mapped, there’s a good chance that this mistake is being replicated in many other places throughout Europe, including the UK. Peatlands are a natural carbon sink and, despite covering less than 3% of the Earth’s land surface, they contain 20% of all the carbon stored in soils worldwide. Because some peatlands aren’t mapped, they have often been ignored, despite their important role in slowing climate change. Blanket bogs are a rare and unique type of peatland that cover entire landscapes with a distinctive vegetation, often composed of cotton grass, heather, and Sphagnum mosses, which is a particularly effective species for locking up carbon.  In the UK and Ireland, blanket bogs cover great expanses and are a key part of the landscape inFlow Country, a region of the north of Scotland, and in the north and south Pennines in England. In France or Spain, this habitat is rare, but our research uncovered 14 unrecorded and unprotected blanket bogs in northern Spain that represent the southernmost edge of this habitat’s range in Europe.Peatlands – and in particular blanket bogs – face a number of pressures across Europe. Overgrazing, drainage to plant crops and commercial forest, burning to improve grazing and support field sports and, more recently, wind farm developments, can change the natural function of peatlands so that they switch from slowing climate change as carbon sinks, to become carbon sources that leach greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.Although peat is naturally eroded by wind, rain and ice, blanket bogs grazed by livestock can losefour to six times more carbon than protected bogs. But the most serious risk to these habitats today is wind farms. Unprotected blanket bogs often cover mountain peaks, where there is also great potential for generating wind energy. During wind farm construction, vegetation that helps to trap the carbon is removed to create turbine bases and vehicle access tracks. These tracks create artificial streams that drain the peat and reshape the terrain. Recent research has shown that the drainage caused by building and maintaining wind turbinescan affect the whole peatland, not just the area next to the farm and its tracks. In our research, we encountered a track that divided the largest unrecognised blanket bog we found in the Cantabrian Mountains into two separate peatlands. The rupture is draining the bog and likely releasing carbon as the peat dries and breaks down.

Daimler to Settle U.S. Emissions Charges for $2.2 Billion - The New York Times -The German automaker Daimler said Thursday that it had agreed to pay $2.2 billion to settle accusations that Mercedes-Benz cars and vans sold in the United States were programmed to cheat on emissions tests.The sum, which covers federal fines and a class-action suit brought by owners of Mercedes vehicles, is a substantial financial hit to the company as it deals with plunging sales because of the coronavirus pandemic. It is also humbling for a company that has been a symbol of German luxury automaking. The penalty is only a fraction of the more than $20 billion that Volkswagen paid in the United States to settle criminal charges and civil suits by owners and state governments after it was caught using software to dupe regulators.The Volkswagen settlement involved about 600,000 diesel passenger cars, while the Daimler settlement covers about 250,000 passenger cars and vans. Daimler may have received more lenient treatment because it cooperated with the authorities after questions were raised about its emissions systems.  Volkswagen misled American investigators for more than a year before it admitted that diesel vehicles sold in the United States were programmed to illegally cloak high emissions. The federal government and the State of California will receive $1.5 billion from the settlement, while owners in a federal class-action suit will receive $700 million, Daimler said. The agreement between the company and car owners and several government agencies, including the Department of Justice and the Environmental Protection Agency, still requires approval by U.S. courts.

Energy Department proposes showerhead standards rollback after Trump complains | TheHill -- The Trump administration is moving to loosen environmental standards for showerheads following a string of public complaints from the president about low-flow fixtures designed to save water. A new proposal from the Department of Energy (DOE) would change the definition of a showerhead, essentially allowing different components within the device to count as individual fixtures, sidestepping requirements that allow no more than 2.5 gallons to flow through per minute."If adopted, this rule would undo the action of the previous Administration and return to Congressional intent, allowing Americans-not Washington bureaucrats--to choose what kind of showerheads they have in their homes," DOE spokeswoman Shaylyn Hynes said in an email to The Hill. The move drew swift criticism from consumer groups."There is absolutely no need to change current showerhead standards," David Friedman, vice president of advocacy at Consumer Reports and a former DOE official during the Obama administration, said in a statement."Thanks to the standards, consumers have access to showerheads that not only score well on [Consumer Reports] tests and achieve high levels of customer satisfaction, but also save consumers money by reducing energy and water consumption," Friedman added.President Trump has revealed his fixation on fixtures by repeatedly bringing up his distaste for showerheads, toilets, and even energy-efficient lightbulbs and dishwashers.“Showerheads — you take a shower, the water doesn’t come out. You want to wash your hands, the water doesn’t come out. So what do you do? You just stand there longer or you take a shower longer? Because my hair — I don’t know about you, but it has to be perfect. Perfect,” he said to laughter at an event in July on rolling back regulations.

Groups threaten to sue Energy Department over 26 delayed efficiency standard updates -- A coalition of environmental and other groups on Monday threatened to sue the Department of Energy (DOE) over missed deadlines to update energy efficiency standards for products such as appliances. A notice of intent to sue filed by the organizations says they will sue the Energy Department in 60 days over its failure to update 26 standards. The groups will likely end up filing their suit, as DOE is not expected to update all of these standards within the time frame. The deadline for the department to review the efficiency standards for items including water heaters, refrigerators, microwaves and dishwashers go back as far as 2016 although most are more recent. “DOE under the Trump Administration has repeatedly and systemically failed to comply with these basic and important duties,” the letter says, referring to the department’s legal obligations to update or review the standards. “If DOE does not comply with its duty to complete the actions ... to review and update the standards for these products within sixty days, we intend to bring suit to compel it to do so,” it continues. The letter also states that updating these standards will allow the country to use less energy, resulting in consumer savings and less air pollution. In response to congressional questioning, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said last month that he would complete “as many [rules] as I possibly can” by the end of the year. “The number of missed legal deadlines for new standards has grown from three to 26 since President Trump took office,” replied Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.) at the time. Under the Trump administration, DOE has rolled back energy efficiency regulations for lightbulbs pushed by the Obama administration and has proposed doing so for dishwashers, too.

Wireless charging: A colossal waste of energy - It turns out the cellphone industry believes its customers just can't be bothered with setting their phones in a charging cradle or worse yet, actually plugging a charging cord into a phone. Users can now simply place a phone on top of a wireless charging pad to get their phones topped up.For the privilege of being extra lazy these users of wireless charging expend up to 47 percent more energy to charge their phones, something that if widely adopted would require dozens of new power plants across the globe to accommodate. Everything wireless seems like magic, and it is essentially sold as magic. It's also sold as freedom, freedom from those pesky cords that limit where you can use your electronic devices. But the freedom is illusory. We are simply shackling ourselves ever more tightly to an addictive device that is contributing to an unsustainable fossil fueled way of life which is bound to crumble dramatically if we do not alter course. That's because, in addition to the wastefulness of wireless charging, wireless technologies require 10 times more energy than wired technology to transfer each unit of data and voice and do so at much slower rates than fiber optic cable. It's no wonder then that wireless companies do NOT use wireless signals to transfer data and voice throughout their systems. Instead, they run fiber optic cables right up to the antennas that service your phone because those cables have much greater capacity and speed and much lower energy usage. To make matters worse, so-called over-the-air charging is now becoming available. Users don't even have to put their devices on a charging pad. They can just leave them wherever they please, and those devices will slowly charge by absorbing energy broadcast throughout a room from a charging station. It's more of the "magic" you've come to expect from the wireless industry and even more wasteful than conventional charging pads. By allowing you to be even lazier than a regular charging pad does, over-the-air charging will alleviate what one company in its promotional video calls "battery anxiety." (Users of over-the-air charging equipment might want to ask themselves whether they feel another kind of anxiety related to spending lots of time in rooms that have essentially become big charging units.)

Deadly explosion in northwest Baltimore neighborhood injures dozens - A massive blast in northwest Baltimore leveled row homes Monday morning in a residential area in what is a suspected gas explosion. The impact of the blast, which struck just before 10 a.m. local time, leveled three adjacent homes and severely damaged a fourth. An unnamed woman was pronounced dead and at least six others have been severely injured and are undergoing treatment in area hospitals. The regional gas and electrical authority has ordered energy sources shut off to contain any further damage. Firefighters and first responders have been forced to sift through debris for survivors and belongings without the aid of heavy machinery. “It was catastrophic. It was like a bomb, like you watch things in other countries where they have bombings and things like that. It was like watching that in real life,” stated local resident Dean Jones to reporters. “Telephone poles split, I mean, houses down the block, broken glass. When I initially got there, I could hear a voice just saying ‘Help,’ it’s crazy. It’s something I don’t ever wanna see ever again; I don’t want to relive it ever again.” Multiple news sources reported young children and the elderly buried beneath rubble and debris. “I didn’t think, someone’s in there,” Jones said. “So we went and we just started digging. We started calling out, ‘Is anybody in here? If you’re in here, can you say something so we know that you’re here. Once they said it was a kid in there, I lost it. I got to get in here now. I just felt like, hey, what if it was me? I’m not a hero, I’m a human.”

Agencies investigating Northwest Baltimore gas explosion, but answers could take awhile - In the immediate aftermath of a major gas explosion in Northwest Baltimore, hundreds of rescue workers sifted through rubble looking for survivors. Next will come the potentially drawn-out process of determining what exactly triggered the blast, which leveled three homes, killing two people and seriously injuring at least seven others. “With these investigations, it could take months, if not longer,” said Jason Stanek, chairman of the Maryland Public Service Commission. “Right now, our thoughts are with residents of Labyrinth Road.” Fire Chief Roman Clark said at a Monday afternoon news conference that the site is “still a rescue mission.” But mixed in with the first responders were representatives from several agencies who will work to determine what caused the explosion. Investigators from the state’s Public Service Commission, which is charged with regulating utility companies, were there alongside federal and local inspectors. “Our staff and federal agents, along with city officials, will be working throughout the night to determine the cause,” Stanek said Monday evening. “We hope to be in a better position to have more information tomorrow.”Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. released a statement saying that it would begin investigating company equipment in the area once the fire rescue is over. Company officials will inspect gas mains, service pipes and gas meters. Customer-owned appliances and piping will also be investigated.  Late Monday night, BGE said crews continue to inspect area gas lines, but that no leaks had been found. Tracing such leaks can be a difficult task. The company’s records indicate that the neighborhood’s gas infrastructure was installed in the early 1960s and that BGE didn’t receive recent gas odor calls from the block of damaged homes, according to the statement.

Beirut disaster highlights dangerous ammonium nitrate stockpiles in regional Australian city - Last week’s catastrophic explosion of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port has drawn fresh attention to the storage of up to four times this amount at Orica’s Kooragang plant in New South Wales (NSW). The facility is 800 metres from residential areas in the Newcastle suburb of Stockton and just three kilometres from the regional port city’s central business district.The disaster in Lebanon, which killed over 200 people and injured 5,000 others, shows that the potential exists for a similar catastrophe in Newcastle. Orica stores between 6,000 and 12,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate at its Kooragang facility.Industrial explosives expert Tony Richards, a former blast operations manager for Orica and BHP, told the Newcastle Herald last week: “It doesn’t matter how small the risk is, the consequences are catastrophic when you are dealing with something that can turn solid iron mountains into mounds of rubble.” Richards estimates 40,000 people live within the blast zone, if an explosion was to occur in Newcastle.Orica is one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of mining and commercial explosives, and other chemical products used in mining, water treatment and other industries. Ammonium nitrate produced at Kooragang is used primarily for explosives in the coal mining industry in nearby Hunter Valley.The highly-profitable company is allowed to operate, despite the real dangers, because its products are indispensable to local mining activities. Orica’s Kooragang plant and its Botany facility south of Sydney have a dangerous history of chemical leaks and operating-licence breaches.On August 8, 2011, up to 10 kilograms of the carcinogen hexavalent chromium leaked from the Kooragang facility, showering homes in Stockton with a toxic red and yellow substance. Nearby residents were not informed of the leak by Orica or government authorities for 54 hours.While under investigation for the first leak, a second spill occurred on November 9, 2011, involving the release of hundreds of kilograms of ammonia. The fumes drifted into nearby suburbs resulting in two workers at a rail yard being hospitalised. Subsequent inquiries by the NSW and the federal governments into these leaks were a whitewash. They were designed to shield Orica from community anger and politically protect Liberal and Labor state governments who allowed the company to continuously violate basic safety requirements.

Almost 120,000 Still Without Power One Week After Hurricane Isaias - NYTimes - For residents of Connecticut and New York who are still without power, frustration with utility companies grew as temperatures rose.   “The last week has been such a nightmare you can’t get away from,” Though the storm that tore through the Northeast is long gone, the anger and anxiety endured for at least 43,000 customers, mostly in New York and Connecticut, who remained without electricity as of Tuesday morning, according to tallies from utility companies. Thousands of crews called in from around the country are scrambling to restore power. But they are being stymied by trees blocking roads and damage to buildings that makes repair work unsafe. With temperatures expected to exceed 90 degrees in many parts of the region this week, the outages are now prompting fears about the safety of older people and other vulnerable residents, who are having trouble escaping the heat and keeping medication cool and medical devices running.In New York, PSEG Long Island reported on Tuesday morning that about 6,600 of its nearly 1.2 million customers were without power from outages that were reported during Isaias. In total, more than 39,000 of the utility’s customers were without power on Tuesday morning, but it was not immediately clear how many of the outages stemmed from other electrical problems unrelated to Isaias. Con Edison reported on Tuesday morning that about 6,100 of its customers still did not have power because of outages from Isaias; about 4,600 were in Westchester County and 1,200 were in Queens. At a news conference Tuesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio, asked about how tree damage was still affecting at least one resident in Queens, said the city must move quickly to help New Yorkers still affected by the storm. “We did get hit real hard by this storm, really, really hard, biggest winds since Hurricane Sandy, a lot of trees down,” Mr. de Blasio said. “But we can’t leave people vulnerable.” In New Jersey, originally one of the states hit hardest by outages, power was mostly restored by Monday. But in New York and Connecticut, whole streets remained in the dark, and utility companies drew the ire of residents and elected officials.In Connecticut, where 30,000 customers of Eversource, the main power supplier, still had no power Tuesday morning, state officials have said they are investigating utilities’ preparations and have accused Eversource of dramatically underestimating the storm’s severity.In New York, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has also called for an investigation into the utilities, a move he has made in the past after natural disasters and blackouts.Mr. Cuomo said on Monday that depending on the findings of the investigation, utilities could face a host of consequences, including the revocation of their ability to do business in the state.

Bipartisan Critics Bash State’s Power Utilities | NJ Spotlight - The good news is that the heat wave held off, and as we head into what will be at least three 90 degree-plus dog days of summer, most of New Jersey will have its power restored. But, as was the case with Tropical Storm Isaias and seemingly every major weather event since Sandy, officials are turning up the heat on utilities for the extended outages and the poor communications. “How about communications. This is my favorite: If GPS can tell you how far you are from an intersection, but they can’t tell where the lights went out? I can guarantee you that there is technology that everyone should have that immediately connects with the power companies. They should know every location and people should know exactly how much time it’s going to take to repair their electrical input,” said Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R-Union). Senate Republicans also joined in calling on the Board of Public Utilities to get tough with the state’s utilities. In a letter to the BPU, they called on the board to get on the utilities to “… create emergency response plans to ensure a fast and effective response to storms … take proactive actions that will help prevent any disruption in service in the first place … require the implementation of emergency communications plans …” “What people need right now is immediate hardening of the infrastructure. They need to make sure the communication flow is a 21st century communications flow because people aren’t experiencing that right now, and that doesn’t take billions of dollars,” said Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean (R-Union). Much of the ire was saved for Jersey Central Power and Light, JCP&L, the New Jersey subsidiary of Ohio-based First Energy Corp. Freeholder Tayfun Selen of Morris County, which still had over 100,000 customers without power at the start of Monday, called for immediate action. “Not only the resignation of the CEO, I also called for refunds for July and August utility bills because those people who lost power and incurred some costs and incurred inconveniences so they need to be compensated,” said Selen.

As Connecticut municipal leaders mull legal action over Eversource’s handling of Tropical Storm Isaias utility says final customers will get power back by midnight Thursday - Hartford Courant - More than a week after Tropical Storm Isaias blew through Connecticut with devastating impact, just over 800 homes and businesses remained without power, but those final outages may not be fixed until midnight Thursday, leaving some customers in the dark for a total of nine days. Around 9:30 p.m. Wednesday, Eversource was reporting 784 outages scattered among a number of towns in Fairfield and Litchfield Counties. United Illuminating had resolved all but 46 outages, with 43 of those remaining in West Haven. Advertisement Eversource said in a tweet Wednesday that 2,500 crews were continuing restoration efforts and that the utility expected to restore power to those in central and eastern Connecticut by midnight Wednesday and those in the hardest-hit, western part of the state by midnight Thursday. The company cautioned that the remaining outages are more complex and may require the help of a private electrician. Leaders from some of the municipalities with the longest restoration times have spoken out this week in frustration with a perceived lack of preparedness by Eversource ahead of the storm as they consider legal action. “Eversource has no plan, they’ve broken promise after promise to our residents, the subcontractor crews are not working or dispatched with any sense of urgency,” Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton said in a social media post. Boughton said he will be consulting with other municipal leaders and his legal team “to look at legal action that we can bring against Eversource, its CEO, and its senior management team.”

N.J. investigating how utility companies handled Tropical Storm Isaias power outages -  The state’s utility regulator is investigating how energy companies handled power restoration for the 1.4 million customers who were in the dark in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Isaias. The state Board of Public Utilities division of reliability and security will conduct a post-mortem investigation into power companies’ storm response, said the agency’s president Joseph Fiordaliso Wednesday during the BPU’s monthly meeting. The investigation comes after complaints from residents and officials about the pace of restorations.The Aug. 4 storm battered New Jersey with ripping winds and it knocked down trees, power lines and utility poles. Power was returned for all residents and businesses by Monday night, a week after the storm. “(An investigation) will determine for us whether or not we need a general public hearing regarding the storm to see what the findings were, to see and ensure the utilities followed the appropriate protocols, that they did everything possible to get everything up and running,” Fiordaliso said. “(The storm) was quick, it was strong and in many areas devastating.” Residents and mayors criticized utility company JCP&L for prolonged waits and poor communication. JCP&L provides power to more than 2 million New Jerseyans. “I’m anxious, and I know my colleagues are, to see what the results are,” he continued. “I kept stressing communicate, communicate communicate. You have to let people know what’s going on. I think for the most part, that did happen. But there’s always lapses.” Contributing to slow restoration times, he said, was major transmission damage and many downed trees. He said the storm renewed the importance of clearing vegetation around power lines to cut down on outages caused by fallen trees or branches, known as “vegetation management.” “Vegetation management is extremely important in maintaining a strong energy system within the state. We are going to revisit vegetation management... These trees have to be cleared before crews again can get in and repair.”

 The US electric grid — climate change's least talked about victim - Recently, Tropical Storm Isaias smattered the East Coast, bringing with it high winds, lightning and severe showers and, of course, power outages. The fact is, our national electrical grid is not up to the task of handling extreme weather, and hasn’t been for a long time. In fact, no infrastructural relic may be as vulnerable as the U.S. electric grid. As climate change escalates and disrupts weather patterns, our country must update the grid, immediately, or risk losing not only power, but lives. This is not the first time, nor the last, extreme weather has exposed infrastructural weakness. In 2017, eight senior citizens died in Florida when Hurricane Irma knocked out power. We don’t know much about the horrific conditions these men and women faced in their final moments, most probably combating sweltering temperatures with sheer will and pictures of loved ones solely for company, hoping against all odds that help would soon appear, but tragically never came. What we do know is when the grid fails, those on the margins of society — the elderly, the poor, the disenfranchised and the forgotten — bear the brunt of the impacts.The U.S. electric grid is roughly more than 100 years old by some Department of Energy estimates. But what was, and in some way still is, a sociotechnical marvel of engineering and a testament to the ingenuity and innovation of the human mind, is but a relic, aging and in disrepair. Thus, despite its stature, it remains vulnerable to extreme weather — which, as climate change progresses, is becoming increasingly exposed. As wildfires burn longer and hotter, as heat waves continue to shatter records, as historical drought ravishes water supplies, as warmer waters become more likely to conjure up vicious hurricanes and tropical storms, the national conversation increasingly turns away from a greater sense of connected urgency undergirding the constellation of these events to treating extreme weather events as singular apparitions instead of as a threaded, cohesive pattern, which when seen as a tapestry reveals the compounded horrors of climate change. 47 large-scale power outages-those with more than 50,000 customers affected for 1 hour or more — occurred — one attributed to a natural disaster in Utah, the other were caused by severe weather events, with an estimated 6 million customers directly impacted, per data analyzed from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the 2019 calendar year. The lion’s share of these documented outages (98 percent) were caused by severe weather. Impacted by power outages are hospitals, schools, retirement communities, water treatment centers, households, etc., who all hold in trust the fact that they rely on the electric grid for every-day life-sustaining tasks. Often po

US Coal Power Generation Plummets 30% in 2020, EIA Says - U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables amid low energy prices linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new figures from the Energy Information Administration. Electricity generation accounts for more than 90 percent of U.S. coal consumption. In 2019, coal generation fell to a 42-year low, dropping by a record 16 percent. That record low does not look like it will last for long.  Renewable electricity output rose 5 percent in the first half of 2020, and natural-gas generation surged by 9 percent in the lower 48 states, the EIA says, with gas-fired generation hitting a record U.S. high in late July during the typical summertime peak.Natural gas was already the leading source of U.S. power generation by some distance, with a 38 percent share in 2019, followed by coal (23 percent), nuclear (20 percent) and renewables (17 percent). The EIA’s renewables tally typically does not include behind-the-meter systems such as rooftop solar, a rapidly growing market in many parts of the country. While coal power’s slide is helping to reduce carbon emissions, the reasons for its decline are largely tied to another factor: money. With average monthly Henry Hub natural-gas spot prices down more than 30 percent in the first half of the year, to $1.81 per MMBtu, and more than 180 gigawatts of wind and solar plants now online across the country, coal plants have simply become "uneconomical in most regions," the EIA says. Since the beginning of 2018, the U.S. added 18 gigawatts of new combined-cycle natural gas plants while closing 31 gigawatts of coal power stations and 2.4 gigawatts of nuclear capacity. Coal-to-gas switching has been most pronounced on the grids overseen by the PJM Interconnection and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — regions where price competition is particularly fierce between coal and gas. While low-cost natural gas is the most immediate threat for coal power generators and their fuel suppliers, renewable energy is becoming a more serious competitor in parts of the country, notably the ERCOT grid in Texas. In ERCOT territory, most of this year's decline in coal generation has been replaced by renewables rather than gas, the EIA says. Gas-fired generation has actually declined slightly in Texas this year.

Powder River Basin coal production down 15% in recent 12 months | S&P Global Market Intelligence U.S. coal production and employment nosedived in the second quarter, and much of the lost tonnage would have come from the Powder River Basin that spans southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. The region is the largest producer of coal in the nation and heavily relies on demand from domestic power generators, which have reduced coal consumption as the COVID-19 pandemic squeezes electricity demand. Coal production from the region fell 21.5% quarter to quarter and was down 15.4% for the 12 months ended in the second quarter as the economic fallout from the virus added to a secular decline in demand for thermal coal. Peabody Energy Corp. produced 14.0 million tons of coal from the North Antelope Rochelle mine in the recent quarter. The mine is the largest in the country and produced 19.5 million tons in the second quarter of 2019. The company recently took a $1.42 billion asset impairment on the value of the mine as it expects low natural gas prices and competition from renewables to continue to wear down demand for Powder River Basin coal. "While we still believe coal is essential to a reliable energy grid and that our Powder River Basin assets are best positioned to serve that demand ... we do expect coal's long-term share of the U.S. generation mix to remain below prior-year levels," Peabody CEO Glenn Kellow said on an Aug. 5 earnings call. Similarly, Arch Resources Inc.'s Black Thunder mine, the second-largest mine in the country by production volume, pulled back coal output from 16.7 million tons in the second quarter of 2019 to 10.1 million tons in the second quarter of 2020. The company has been pivoting to a focus on metallurgical coal from its eastern U.S. operations as the outlook dims for domestic thermal coal sales.

'No place to go': US coal employment, production nosedive in wake of pandemic | S&P Global Market Intelligence - U.S. coal production and employment took a nosedive in the second quarter as the COVID-19 pandemic delivered a significant blow to demand. Average quarterly coal mine employment fell 13.3% from the prior quarter and 23.1% from the year-ago period to a new low in the second quarter of 2020, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. At the same time, coal production declined to 112.3 million tons in the quarter, down 24.7% compared to the prior quarter and down 37.6% compared to the second quarter of 2019. "I'm not sure how to characterize this quarter other than by saying, I'm sure we would all like to never repeat the experience of operating in this kind of an environment again," Ramaco Resources Inc. Executive Chairman Randall Atkins said on the metallurgical coal producer's Aug. 7 earnings call. "This quarter reflects only two months of economic activity for us, not three. We were essentially closed for much of the month of April, and that in itself is a condition, of course, we hope never to repeat." Production and employment in the coal sector have been declining for several years. However, export demand had somewhat stabilized employment levels as mines in the eastern U.S., which generally require more workers per ton to mine higher-quality coal, were able to book sales outside of the declining domestic coal market. "From the time we took this company on the road, we said that we had the capability of pivoting from the export market to the domestic market and back again, better, more cost-effectively and more efficiently than anybody else in the business, and that has not changed," James McCaffrey, Consol Energy Inc.'s senior vice president of marketing, said on an Aug. 10 call with investors. "But what changed in the second quarter was, there was no place to pivot to. There was just no place to go." Producers were already suffering in the first quarter with lower demand due to a warmer winter, diminished export opportunities and the ongoing retirement of the nation's aging coal fleet. "Our concerns about competitive issues in the domestic coal market are increasing," Benjamin Nelson, senior credit officer and lead coal analyst at Moody's Investors Service, said in an Aug. 10 statement. "We believe that consolidation is necessary in an industry characterized by ongoing secular decline in demand combined with near-term erosion of financial strength driven by the adverse economic impact from global outbreaks of coronavirus." The analysis of U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration data showed that a drop in production and employment occurred across all major basins. The Powder River Basin saw production decline by about 13.4 million tons, or 21.5%, compared to the prior quarter. That is down about 30.1%, or 19.5 million tons, compared to the same quarter of 2019.

Reckoning in coal country: How lax fiscal policy has left states flat-footed as mining declines -- “I thought I’d be a coal miner until I retired, but things changed,” said Rose Evenson, 55. “It got stressful because you were always wondering, ‘Is this the month? How long do I have here?’ Every year it kept getting slower and slower, and I kept thinking, ‘God, I got to do something else.’”  This spring, after 13 years at Black Thunder, Evenson took a buyout package.  Evenson’s assessment of the industry’s future stands in contrast to legislative action in coal states, where for decades a dogmatic belief in coal’s longevity has guided fiscal policy that has in some cases actually made it harder for coal-region economies to diversify.  And while thousands of mining jobs are being lost around the country, coal’s collapse carries ramifications that reach far beyond coal towns themselves, affecting downstream industries with larger geographic footprints. Railroads, for example, are slashing jobs along coal routes in response to declining shipments between coal mines and the power plants they serve. Manufacturers of equipment used in the coal industry have taken a hit as well.  So what happens to communities in coal-producing regions when a $28.6 billion industry spirals into permanent decline?   High-salary workers like Evenson either retire earlier than planned or search for another, most likely lower-wage, job. Some move away and many become more reliant on social health services.  Businesses lose customers and healthcare providers see fewer patients with adequate insurance. Charitable giving among businesses to support local nonprofit social services dries up just as the need for such services skyrockets. Locally and regionally, revenues to support government services plummet,triggering budget cuts — often to the very programs most needed to maintain a quality of life and transition to more sustainable economies.  Wyoming also disproportionately relies on tax revenue from mineral extractive industries to fund education. Since 2016, the state has made cuts and dipped into savings to help staunch a growing K-12 education budget shortfall, now about $515 million over the next two years. The situation only looks to intensify.

Contura Energy Will Accelerate Exit From Thermal Coal Business, Citing Global Transition Away From Fossil Fuels - A major Ohio Valley coal producer announced last week it will speed up its exit from producing coal used to generate electricity. In a call with shareholders last week, Contura Energy, Inc., said the move is tied to the ongoing global transition away from fossil fuels. “We recognize that the world is transitioning toward an economy that relies less on fossil fuels for power generation, and we therefore have accelerated our strategic exit from thermal coal mining,” said CEO David Stetson. The largest market for coal has traditionally been “thermal” coal, or that used in power stations. A smaller but lucrative market exists for “metallurgical” coal, which is used in making steel.  Executives said Contura plans to focus its operations solely on producing metallurgical and expects to be out of the thermal coal business by the end of 2022. The Tennessee-based company operates both thermal and metallurgical mines in West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Contura in 2018 purchased Alpha Natural Resources. The companies previously split during bankruptcy in 2015.  The 2018 merger turned Contura into the largest metallurgical coal producer in the U.S. Its portfolio also includes mines owned by Massey Energy, which in 2011 was acquired by Alpha Natural Resources following the April 2010 explosion of the Upper Big Branch Mine that killed 29 miners. Contura last year exited its thermal coal operations in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. Earlier this year the company announced it is actively seeking a buyer for its Cumberland mine, which produces thermal coal, in Greene County, Pennsylvania. Operations will cease by the end of 2022 if a buyer isn’t found. The company also said the COVID-19 pandemic continues to hurt coal prices. In April, Contura idled its operations for several weeks to cut costs. Contura reported a $238 million net loss in its second quarter. Executives said the company will idle its Kielty mine, which produces both thermal and met coal, and the Delbarton prep plant in southern West Virginia in the next six weeks. Three new metallurgical coal operations are in the works, at the Road Fork No. 52 Mine, Lynn Branch and Black Eagle Mine.  

Uncertainty over earnings return for $8B North Carolina coal ash cleanup weighs on Duke - The question of whether Duke Energy will earn a return on the largest coal ash cleanup in U.S. history is poised to be "a very big deal" for the utility, analysts and company executives say. Duke is preparing to testify in front of North Carolina regulators Aug. 24, and will center its argument around the potential risks to its balance sheet if it is not able to earn a return on its projected $8-9 billion coal ash cleanup, mandated by a settlement reached with environmental groups in January. The North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC), in a separate January case, ruled Dominion Energy could not earn a return on its coal ash cleanup investments, which analysts say does not bode well for Duke."If we were to receive an order consistent with Dominion ... absent any other provisions within the order that would be credit supportive, our balance sheet would be weakened," Duke Chairman, President and CEO Lynn Good said Monday during the company's second quarter earnings call. "I don't say this lightly, we don't want this outcome."  For years, Duke's highest-earning Carolinas subsidiary fought environmentalists on how it manages its coal ash. Groups argued the utility should excavate all of its coal ash ponds entirely — a fight heightened by a coal ash spill in 2014 that released tens of thousands of tons of coal ash into the nearby Dan River — while the utility insisted on leaving some facilities capped in place.But the settlement reached at the beginning of this year will require the utility to excavate 80 million tons of waste, leaving the state with just one question — who will absorb the costs?Duke received approval from the NCUC in 2018 to recover nearly all of its costs related to coal ash, but that ruling is currently being challenged in the state's Supreme Court by NCUC public staff and North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein. Between the pending North Carolina Supreme Court case and an unfavorable ruling toward Dominion, analysts say the path forward for Duke is murky.

Illinoisans demand stricter coal ash rules, denounce state proposal - Illinoisans voiced their fears about coal ash silently contaminating their drinking water, or coal ash impoundments failing and deluging rivers with toxic sludge, during public hearings this week.  It was the latest step in a years-long debate in Illinois, which has the nation’s second-highest number of contaminated coal ash sites, according to a 2011 study.   Last year, Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a law demanding the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency develop proposed rules to regulate coal ash storage, and now the Illinois Pollution Control Board is holding hearings on the proposed rules, which environmental and community groups say are far too lax to adequately protect water, communities and workers.  Federal rules on coal ash were adopted in 2015, and states were encouraged to implement their own rules that were required to be at least as protective. In 2016, then-Gov. Bruce Rauner’sadministration proposed rules —covering only six pages — that critics described as woefully inadequate.  Environmental groups and citizens support some of the provisions in the Illinois EPA’s latest proposed rules, a filing of 320 pages.   But they say the rules allow coal ash to remain stored in contact with water, do not allow for sufficient public participation, do not adequately protect coal ash workers, and do not ensure that companies, not taxpayers, will pay for coal ash cleanup. They are also demanding that unlike the federal rules, state rules must cover coal ash at power plants that have already closed, like the Vermilion plant.  “The rules, as drafted, do not protect lakes, streams, rivers, groundwater and Illinois communities from coal ash stored in areas where it mixes with water,”  In written testimony, the Environmental Law & Policy Center, Prairie Rivers Network and Sierra Club also cite language that they say is vague, confusing, and open to interpretation, including the use of terms like “where appropriate,” “where possible” and “best practices.” The groups describe it as “language that companies could attempt to use as loopholes or, at a minimum, attempt to exploit as ambiguous.”

Will Utah lawmakers bail out beleaguered coal-export terminal? - The bankrupt proponents of an export terminal, intended to ship Utah coal overseas through Oakland, Calif., need a $20 million bailout, and fast.Relief could come as soon as Aug. 20 when the Utah Legislature votes on whether to advance state money to pay off the project’s creditors, according to lawyers for Insight Terminal Solutions, the beleaguered company now at the center of the Oakland controversy.At least that’s what lawyer Andrew Stosberg told a Kentucky bankruptcy judge Friday in asking to delay Tuesday’s hearing on Insight’s contested reorganization plan. Insight is completely dependent on a $53 million investment from four Utah coal-producing counties to move forward on the rail-to-ship terminal that would help deliver up to 11 million tons of coal a year to Japanese utilities.Utah officials are far from ready to release the money, so making a legislative end run around a bureaucratic process for vetting such funding requests may be Insight’s best hope for salvaging the project.The Legislature has yet to post an agenda for the upcoming special session, its fifth of the year, and it is unclear how Stosberg could know in advance what will be addressed. He did not return a phone message Monday.The bankruptcy judge agreed to postpone the hearing on the Insight reorganization until after Utah's special session.Expanding export markets is vital to the future of Utah’s storied coal industry, battered by declining domestic demand. The terminal proposed at the old Oakland Army Base on the Bay Area city’s waterfront, however, has been mired for years in controversy and litigation precisely because it would process coal, a fossil fuel that many believe must be phased out to fix the global climate crisis.

 'Derecho' storm causes Cargill plant closure, emergency shutdown of nuclear plant in Iowa - A violent storm that tore through Iowa on Monday caused an emergency shutdown at a nuclear power plant near Cedar Rapids. The storm packing hurricane-force winds tore across the Midwest, compounding troubles for a U.S. farm economy already battered by extreme weather, the U.S.-China trade war and most recently, the disruption caused to labor and consumption by the COVID-19 pandemic. Grain silos were ripped apart, and Minnetonka-based Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland closed crop-processing plants in Cedar Rapids. The Duane Arnold nuclear plant lost its connection to the electricity grid. At about 1 p.m., the plant in Palo, 11 miles northwest of Cedar Rapids, declared an “unusual event” — an indication of a safety threat, according to a report posted Tuesday by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). An unusual event is the lowest of four levels of emergency conditions under NRC regulations. While the Duane Arnold plant is not now producing electricity, it does have power to run its emergency systems. “The plant is stable and is using a backup power source at this time,” Duane Arnold’s majority owner and operator, Florida-based NextEra Energy Resources, said in a statement. The storms damaged the plant’s cooling towers, which are used in electricity production to cool steam after it exits the turbine, NextEra said. The loss of power at Duane Arnold automatically triggered an automatic reactor “scram,” or shutdown. Standby diesel generators kicked in, giving power for the reactor’s cooling systems, the NRC report said.

State regulators settle over proposed transfer of Three Mile Island’s Unit 2 reactor - State environmental regulators are withdrawing their objection to a proposed license transfer for Three Mile Island’s Unit 2 reactor, the site of the nation’s worst commercial nuclear disaster in 1979.The Department of Environmental Protection has settled with the companies after raising concerns over an accelerated decommissioning at the site.DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell wrote to the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission in April detailing several concerns, including where waste will be disposed of and unknown levels of radiation left on site.“I firmly believe TMI Unit 2 is the most radiologically contaminated facility in our nation outside of the Department of Energy’s weapons complex,” he said. TMI-2, owned by GPU Nuclear, experienced a partial meltdown in March 1979 and has been non-operational since then. TMI’s Unit 1 is owned by Exelon. It stopped operations in September 2019.McDonnell also had said there might not be enough money in a trust fund dedicated to clean up the site.GPU Nuclear reported in 2018 the trust fund held about $899 million, while the estimated clean-up costs for TMI-2 were $1.35 billion.DEP claims costs could be even higher, since the site has been inaccessible for decades and the full extent of the damage in the reactor is unknown.GPU Nuclear, a subsidiary of FirstEnergy, plans to transfer TMI-2’s license to the newly-formed TMI-2 Solutions. It’s a venture of Utah-based EnergySolutions, which buys shuttered nuclear plants for decommissioning, with the goal of dismantling them cheaper and faster.Under the agreement, DEP will withdraw its petition to intervene in the transfer. DEP will have more oversight of financial and environmental aspects of the decommissioning. For example, TMI-2 Solutions agrees to provide quarterly reports to DEP on project milestones, amounts of low-level radioactive waste created during clean-up, and other environmental surveillance that will be made public. Quarterly reports to DEP on project finances will be confidential.In a statement, FirstEnergy spokeswoman Jennifer Young said the agreement also “ensures local residents are involved in the decommissioning process and informed of key activities; and will enable local officials’ and residents’ input directly to the new owners to address concerns and questions.” Young said FirstEnergy will continue to work through the license transfer process with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Regulators prep for an industry few want: nuclear waste disposal - North Dakota is imposing its first comprehensive rules for nuclear waste disposal more than four years after Pierce County residents were caught off-guard by a proposal to drill test wells near Rugby.The state Industrial Commission approved the regulations in late July, as well as new rules surrounding deep geothermal wells, another industry that does not exist in North Dakota but could emerge one day.The waste disposal rules spell out all the steps an entity would have to go through if it were to propose storing “high-level radioactive waste” in North Dakota. Such waste is highly radioactive material generated from the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, for example, and it requires permanent isolation.The regulations likely will serve to discourage disposal of the waste in North Dakota, said Sen. Jim Roers, R-Fargo, who chaired an advisory committee working on the rules. He hasn’t heard of any proposals to examine potential sites in the state following an effort by the U.S. Department of Energy to drill an exploratory borehole near Rugby, which Pierce County officials shot down when they heard about it in 2016. Federal officials said the proposed experiment was not a step toward actually burying waste in the state.“The most important thing to come out of this is that we have rules and expectations of anybody coming to our state,” Roers said. “I don’t think they’ll try to do the backdoor approach anymore.”The Legislature passed a bill into law in 2019 that prohibits the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in North Dakota. For the rules to even take effect, “the first thing you have to do is get that law overturned or thrown out,” State Geologist Ed Murphy said.“We were writing rules for a program that, by law, is prohibited,” he said.Roers said the thinking behind establishing the rules in light of the ban is that if the federal government were ever to try to trump North Dakota’s prohibition, it might still agree to follow the regulations established by the state.

Federal PAC Donations Show Ohio Valley Lawmakers Raked In Thousands From FirstEnergy - Lawmakers from across the Ohio Valley have received nearly half a million dollars in campaign contributions from 2019-2020 from a political action committee associated with FirstEnergy Corp., the electric utility implicated in a $61 million bribery and racketeering scheme related to Ohio’s controversial energy bill that bailed out several struggling nuclear and coal plants. FirstEnergy’s PAC donated $484,490 to elected officials  in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky. The elected officials came from both parties and encompassed a vast range of political offices — from the U.S. Senate and House to statehouses and even state auditors offices — according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission documents compiledby HEATED, a climate-focused newsletter written by journalist Emily Atkin. Last month’s revelation by federal prosecutors that the Ohio-based company funneled millions of dollars of dark money into a group, Generation Now, controlled by former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and his political allies, pulled back the curtain on the outsized political influence wielded by the utility, which is one of the largest in the country. For example, recent reporting by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting, found a highly-connected attorney with deep ties in Kentucky Republican politics is linked to the Ohio case. Former Kentucky Republican Party General Counsel Eric Lycan is listed as the treasurer of Generation Now. Lycan is connected to several PACs and tax-exempt organizations in Kentucky and West Virginia. While the investigation is ongoing and continues to unearth connections between the utility, coal company Murray Energy and lawmakers, contributions made by FirstEnergy’s PAC during the 2019-2020 campaign cycle offer a window into the company’s priorities. Six U.S. Senators from West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania received campaign contributions from FirstEnergy’s PAC totaling $24,500. The Country Roads PAC, associated with Sen. Manchin, and Wild and Wonderful PAC, associated with Sen. Capito, each received $5,000 in contributions from FirstEnergy’s PAC, records show.  West Virginia's three U.S. House representatives — Republicans David McKinley, Alex Mooney and Carol Miller — each received $7,500 in campaign donations this election cycle. In addition, 21 Republican House candidates and six Democrats from Ohio and Pennsylvania also received campaign contributions. Every member of Ohio and West Virginia's U.S. Congressional delegation took political contributions.

After HB 6, we need a new energy vision for Ohio: Casey Weinstein - cleveland.com -- In October 2018, I was watching “60 Minutes” with my wife after a long day of campaigning, when an ad paid for by a dark money group called “Hardworking Ohioans’” came on, spreading blatant lies about me. I knew this was incredibly expensive TV ad space and couldn’t believe what I was up against. So, while I was appalled to learn of former Speaker Larry Householder’s alleged $60 million racketeering scheme, I wasn’t shocked whenHardworking Ohioans was one of the groups implicated.After beating back those attacks, I joined the legislature and almost immediately confronted House Bill 6, which we now know was at the core of Householder’s alleged scheme. I sought input from my constituents on the bill, and their responses matched polling that showed an overwhelming majority of Ohioans opposed HB 6. Instead, they showed support for a clean energy economy that drives economic development while reducing pollution from outdated and uncompetitive energy resources. I opposed HB 6, not only because it provided a bailout to a chronically failing corporation, but also to two failing coal plants while sunsetting our energy efficiency and renewable portfolio standards. Unfortunately, we lost that fight.Until the recent revelations, it looked as though the scheme had worked. But it was not then, nor is it now, the will of the people. Real hardworking Ohioans can’t afford to bail out a chronically dependent corporation whose bad investments we’re already subsidizing. The Cleveland-Akron area has one of the highest rates of air particle pollution in the United States, leading to worse health outcomes, like the childhood asthma that afflicts my daughter.I take no joy in Householder’s fall. But this is our opportunity to start anew, and we can do so in a way that transcends politics. In place of HB 6, I propose a new vision for Ohio. One that embraces our legacy of innovation and enables us to lead the nation in the renewable energy revolution.We can get there by reestablishing our energy efficiency programs, which saved Ohio over $5.1 billion from 2009 - 2017 and supported the employment of 80,000 Ohioans, often in unionized positions. We can restore our renewable energy portfolio standards, setting Ohio on a path toward 100% clean power generated right here at home. We can eliminate the burdensome regulations purposely implemented to kill the wind industry, and make reforms that bring our regulations in line with our neighboring states, leading to as much as 3,000 megawatts of new wind projects by 2026, and unlocking $4.2 billion in investment along the way.

Murray Energy’s limited disclosures on Ohio conspiracy case leave big questions unanswered  -- While an Ohio-based coal company has contributed $100,000 to an organization that may have been involved in an alleged bribery operation to pass a power plant bailout law last year, company officials said in a bankruptcy filing that they don’t know how the money was spent. A bankruptcy court ruled last week that Murray Energy can move ahead to seek approval of its reorganization plan, subject to a representation that its officers and directors have no knowledge about how money it gave to a dark money organization might have been used to promote the Ohio coal and nuclear bailoutlaw at the heart of a federal conspiracy case.  The ruling is a partial victory for environmental and citizen groups, who had objected to a more limited disclosure statement proposed by Murray Energy and its related debtors on Aug. 6. But creditors or others can’t independently verify that statement or dig into other questions about the extent to which the company may have spent funds to influence Ohio energy policy. “If we do not have the ability to verify, we should not trust,” said Catherine Turcer, executive director of Common Cause Ohio, paraphrasing a Russian proverb. Murray Energy has been identified as “Company B” in the federal government’s July 21 complaint, which alleges that $100,000 was wired from a company to “Dark Money Group 1” on Oct. 26, 2018. Murray Energy’s bankruptcy filings show a $100,000 cash contribution that day to Hardworking Ohioans, Inc. That organization, which is registered as a for-profit corporation, allegedly spent $1.5 million on political ads supporting Republican candidates in 2018.

Ohio corruption scandal hits Energy Harbor bankruptcy case -The judge in Energy Harbor’s bankruptcy case has hit the brakes on approving millions of dollars in fees and expenses for the utility’s outside law firms and consultants after learning of the federal racketeering case against former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Judge Alan Koschik said he’d been prepared to approve remaining interim fees and expenses for nineteen firms at the July 21 court hearing, according to a transcript reviewed by the Energy and Policy Institute. The judge had also been prepared to grant allowances for the total final fees and expenses incurred by the firms over the course of the multi-year bankruptcy case, much of which have already been paid for, including nearly $68 million for the utility’s bankruptcy counsel and lobbying firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, and $2.4 million for the public relations firm Sitrick & Company.  Energy Harbor is the new name for the company formerly known as FirstEnergy Solutions (FES), which had been a subsidiary of FirstEnergy Corp. until it emerged from bankruptcy at the end of February. Both Akin Gump and Sitrick & Company were involved in last year’s successful campaign by FES to pass House Bill 6. The new law benefits Energy Harbor by providing long sought subsidies to the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants, and what environmentalists call a “stealth bailout” of the coal-fired Sammis power plant, as well as rolling back Ohio’s renewable energy and energy efficiency standards for electric utilities.  Instead of approving the fees and expenses, Koschick read aloud excerpts from a Cleveland.com article by Jeremy Pelzer, with the headline “House Speaker Larry Householder arrested in $60 million bribery case related to HB6 nuclear bailout,” that was  handed to him shortly before the hearing began.  “The investigation centers on House Bill 6, the one billion dollar plus rate payer bailout of two Ohio nuclear power plants owned by FirstEnergy Solutions, now Energy Harbor, that Householder helped push through last year, with the help of millions in dark money, according to the Toledo Blade,” he read.  Koschick announced at the hearing “that this may not be the right day to finally approve fees and expenses relating to what was the FirstEnergy Solutions case, now Energy Harbor.”

FirstEnergy tells SEC it needs time to file quarterly report; cites investigation - Akron Beacon Journal -FirstEnergy Corp. said in an after-hours filing Monday that it needed more time to file its latest Form 10-Q quarterly financial report with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Instead, the document will be filed with the SEC on or before Aug. 17, a spokeswoman for the Akron electric utility said Tuesday. The utility said it could not file the form with the SEC for the quarter ended June 30 “within the prescribed time period without unreasonable effort and expense.” A 10-Q is a routine, in-depth financial report that publicly traded companies file with the SEC four times a year timed to the release of quarterly earnings. In its filing Monday, FirstEnergy cited the federal investigation involving former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, as well as subpoenas received by the company connected to the investigation. The company also cited subsequent threatened litigation. FirstEnergy said it “requires additional time to complete its quarterly review and closing procedures and to provide appropriate disclosure in the Form 10-Q.” The company publicly reported earnings July 23 for the quarter ended June 30. FirstEnergy typically files its 10-Q on the day it holds its earnings conference call, spokeswoman Tricia Ingraham said. Because federal agents arrested Householder, who was then House speaker, and four other men, two days before the earnings call, FirstEnergy executives decided it was necessary to delay the filing.

More lawsuits filed against FirstEnergy tied to Columbus bribery scandal - Akron Beacon Journal - Lawsuits against FirstEnergy Corp. continue to climb. Two class action lawsuits were filed last week, with the latest one on Friday in federal court in Cleveland that alleges share prices dropped drastically because of wrongdoing by the Akron electric utility tied to a $60 million bribery and racketeering scheme in Columbus. These two new lawsuits join others previously filed in various courts since the scandal broke on July 21 when federal agents arrested then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Also arrested were four other men who included lobbyists for FirstEnergy and former subsidiary Energy Harbor, previously called FirstEnergy Solutions. Friday’s 32-page shareholder lawsuit filed by California resident Jennifer Miller argues, like others, that FirstEnergy senior executives and board members breached their fiduciary duty, “were unjustly enriched, wasted corporate assets,” and violated provisions of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. Miller is identified as being a FirstEnergy shareholder since 1999 who, at the time of the lawsuit filing, owned 812 shares of stock in the company. The second lawsuit, filed Aug. 5 in federal court in Columbus, differs from the shareholder complaints by alleging that Brian Hudock and Cameo Countertops Inc., both in Lucas County in Northwest Ohio, were injured by being forced to pay monthly surcharges on their electric bills that are tied to the scandal. The 41-page class action lawsuit alleges violations of the Federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization, or RICO, Act, the Ohio Corrupt Activity Act, and civil conspiracy. Both lawsuits heavily draw upon the lengthy criminal complaint and affidavit that led to the arrest of Householder and the four other men.FirstEnergy now faces at least six lawsuits with these latest two filings tied to the Householder investigation. FirstEnergy has previously said that it will not comment on pending litigation.

Cleveland City Council to investigate whether statehouse corruption figures, FirstEnergy sought “to destabilize” Cleveland Public Power -– Cleveland City Council intends to investigate whether any parties accused in the statehouse corruption scandal involving bailouts of Ohio’s nuclear plants also intended to “destabilize” city-owned Cleveland Public Power. In particular, council will examine if FirstEnergy Corp., listed but not charged as “Company A” in federal indictment papers, was involved in efforts against the city and its electric utility, City Council President Kevin Kelley said Monday. “I believe if this was some outside attempt to destabilize Cleveland Public Power, we have an obligation of investigate,” Kelley said during a meeting of City Council’s Finance Committee. “If you peel this [HB 6] back, it really did have a harmful effect on the city of Cleveland.” The council has the authority under Cleveland’s charter to subpoena witnesses, compel production of documents and take testimony to investigate issues of city interest. While the council often has hearings, it has been years since it subpoenaed witnesses. The Finance Committee amended a resolution that initially called for repeal of HB 6 to invoke the subpoena power. The resolution will be put before the full council on Wednesday. Approval from Mayor Frank Jackson would be needed to implement it. Kelley, in an interview with cleveland.com, said the mayor’s support is expected. “Council has reason to believe that Company A has other long-term public policy goals specific to the City of Cleveland: to restrict or destroy Cleveland Public Power and to influence or control the City’s legislative body as well as its executive branch,” the resolution states.

Cleveland City Council OK’s investigating efforts against CPP, but members want to scrutinize CPP, too - – Cleveland City Council voted unanimously Wednesday to launch investigations into whether any parties accused in the statehouse corruption scandal involving bailouts of Ohio’s nuclear plants sought to harm city-owned Cleveland Public Power. City Council President Kevin Kelley, the primary sponsor of the resolution, noted that CPP is a competitor to FirstEnergy in Cleveland and that he intends for the investigation to include a look at lobbying by FirstEnergy. “There are active organizations that are hostel to Cleveland Public Power and seeking to destabilize Cleveland Public Power,” Kelley said. “My questions are very simple: Who’s funding these operations and did any of the money come from one of the sources ... that are involved in the HB6 investigation.” But several members made clear they also wanted to scrutinize Cleveland Public Power itself with an eye toward making the struggling utility more efficient and more accountable to the public. “If we’re going to talk about what’s impacted CPP, then we need to talk about how CPP has been run and how CPP has been managed,” Councilman Mike Polensek said in an interview with cleveland.com after council’s meetings. The resolution approved Wednesday calls for repeal of HB 6, which provided more than $1 billion in ratepayer subsidies for Ohio’s Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants. The plants are owned and operated by Energy Harbor – formerly FirstEnergy Solutions, a subsidiary of FirstEnergy Corp., until it broke away earlier this year. Approval from Mayor Frank Jackson would be needed to launch the probe, which could involve council’s little-used power to issue subpoenas. The mayor is expected to sign the legislation. The General Assembly approved HB6 last year and Gov. Mike DeWine signed it into law. In addition to the nuke plant bailout, it also gave coal plants in Ohio and Indiana subsidies and it effectively gutted the state’s green-energy mandates for utilities. Those changes hurt Cleveland. The city had set goals to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2020 and by 25% by 2025. HB 6 undercut energy efficiency programs and made it more difficult to generate electricity through renewable sources.

Ohio House keeping some documents secret from FBI, public over House Bill 6, citing attorney-client privilege - cleveland.com – The Ohio House of Representatives withheld more than two dozen records from federal investigators and the public involving House Bill 6, claiming that various email attachments and other documents were a matter of attorney-client and legislative privilege. The move came in response to a federal subpoena and a public records request that sought information on the bill, which is the focus of a federal public corruption investigation, and previously failed legislation on the issue. The list of withheld documents was released along with more than 1,000 pages of documents related to the controversial nuclear power plant bailout. The list includes email correspondence between House attorneys Heather Blessing and Paul Disantis and several lawmakers, including the bill’s sponsors, state representatives Jamie Callender and Shane Wilkin, both Republicans. The emails include possible amendments and other documents pertaining to the bill that Gov. Mike DeWine signed into law last July. The correspondences began weeks before the bill passed in May 2019 and through January of this year. The FBI had subpoenaed documents related to the bill, a $1.3 billion bailout for two nuclear plants passed last year. FirstEnergy Corp. had sought the help when its subsidiary, FirstEnergy Solutions, owned the plants. It filed for bankruptcy in 2018, and Energy Harbor now owns the plants. Taylor Jach, a House Republican spokeswoman, said the documents were withheld from the FBI, as well as Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer, which sought the records. She said the attorney-client and legislative privilege they’re citing in withholding the release of the records exists between each member and the House attorney or legislative staffer who corresponded with those individual members.

 Utica Shale well activity as of Aug. 8 -  Five more wells are producing in the Utica Shale, new statistics show.Two horizontal permits were issued during the week that ended Aug. 8, and 7 rigs were operating in the Utica Shale.

• DRILLED: 157 (157 as of the previous week)
• DRILLING: 95 (99)
• PERMITTED: 506 (507)
• PRODUCING: 2,528 (2,523)
• TOTAL: 3,286 (3,286)

TOP COMPANIES BY NUMBER OF PERMITS

• 1. EAP OHIO: 878 (878 as of the previous week)
• 2. ASCENT RESOURCES UTICA: 652 (652)
• 3. GULFPORT APPALACHIA: 416 (416)
• 4. ANTERO: 258 (258)
• 5. ECLIPSE: 218 (218)

State grant aiding students at Utica Shale Academy and Southern Local— Students at the Utica Shale Academy and Southern Local High School are getting another resource to prepare them for a successful future in industry through a $200,000 state grant.USA Director Bill Watson reported the Ohio Department of Education approved an Equity in Education grant to help provide training on six Industry 4.0 building blocks including industrial success skills, industrial equipment and technology, smart sensors and devices, control systems, internet protocol and informactionable data.Southern Local will administer the funding and Watson said it is considered a foreign language class because it primarily uses computer programming, while Southern students may take the class as an elective.Watson worked with Kristy Sampson, district federal programs coordinator at Southern Local, to help give students an opportunity they otherwise may not have. A portion of the funding finances a new instructor and Matt Gates was hired to head classes starting Sept. 8. Meanwhile, officials previously formed a partnership with the New Castle School of Trades in East Liverpool and offered welding classes for the past several years to USA students. That will be expanded to help develop manufacturing skills and Southern students will also take part. About 62 students have registered for the academy, which is an increase from 44 pupils last year. Forty USA students are expected to take welding with 20 in industrial maintenance and the end goal is to obtain industry credentials and certification as well as a possible associate’s degree by the time they graduate high school so they may move on to trade schools or even the workforce with an even greater advantage. As the use of technology increases in the workforce, having such knowledge is a major plus for incoming workers and Watson said Industry 4.0 will put students on track to a successful future. “It’s really exciting and not only a great opportunity for the Utica Shale Academy, but also for Southern Local. It’s a great collaborative for the schools and allows students to have hands-on experience,” Southern Local Superintendent Tom Cunningham said. “Hopefully we can build up our career tech programs. Everyone’s calling for more career tech options for our kids and I think this is a great start.”

Transparency, Environmental Concerns Surround Proposal To Barge Oil And Gas Waste On The Ohio River -- A proposal to repurpose a docking facility near Marietta, Ohio, to allow for the barging of oil and gas drilling waste on the Ohio River is drawing concern from environmental groups and local residents.Ohio-based DeepRock Disposal Solutions LLC is seeking approvalfrom the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Huntington District to operate a barge offloading facility to transfer the waste to existing storage tanks. The proposal indicates the loading facility can accommodate a 300-foot-long barge that is 54 feet wide.It is the third barging proposal this year being considered by federal regulators. A proposal near Martins Ferry, Ohio, and one near Portland, Ohio, both to build new barging loading facilities have already been approved.Opponents of the projects fear the barges will eventually carry millions of gallons of briny fracking waste laced with radioactive elements as well as other, unknown chemicals. The chemical makeup of fracking fluid is considered proprietary.Robin Blakeman, project coordinator with the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, said her main concern is the possibility of spills or leaks occurring during loading or unloading of the waste or on the river. She said a spill would threaten both the river’s ecosystems and the drinking water for about 5 million people who draw their tap water from the Ohio River.“The proposed facility would involve the transport and handling of enormous amounts of oil and gas waste, which has the possibility of radioactive content and definitely has hazardous components,” she said. “The toxic contents of this oil and gas waste could be huge.”DeepRock Disposal declined a request for an interview about the nature of the project.It’s unclear if oil and gas waste is currently being barged on the river. A spokesperson for the U.S. Coast Guard, which regulates shipping on the river, said the Guard could  only provide that information through a records request. The Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Pittsburgh said no produced water is being transported by vessel in their area of responsibility, which includes a small portion of the Ohio River.

Shale Consolidation: Two US Tight-Gas Producers Merge in All Stock-Deal - Houston-area based Southwestern Energy announced that it is acquiring Montage Resources in an all-stock deal that will make the buyer the third-largest producer of the gas-rich Appalachian Basin. The Dallas-area based Montage holds about 325,500 acres in the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shales that span Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.The arrangement will see each of Montage’s shares exchanged for about 1.8 of Southwestern’s shares, which based on the closing price of 11 August places the value of Montage at around $204 million.Notably, there is no stock premium attached to the deal as was once the norm. After energy investors grew worried about high debts and low returns, equity deals without an above-market premium became more common since they carry less leverage over to the buyer.Upon closing, Southwestern’s production will grow by nearly a quarter to around 3 Bcfe/D—a figure mostly based on natural gas, but inclusive of some liquids- and crude-oil production. Further, Southwestern’s total acreage position will grow by more than 70% to about 787,200 acres. The operator expects to also be on track to generate $100 million in free cash flow by next year based on current gas prices, an effort to be aided by an expected $30 million in reductions of general and administrative costs, according to a company statement. In 2018, Southwestern turned its full attention to the Appalachian region after selling off its legacy assets in Arkansas’ Fayetteville Shale—a gas-rich formation the company discovered—in a cash deal valued at $1.87 billion to privately owned producer Flywheel Energy. Montage was formed in 2019 through the merger of two other gas companies, Eclipse Resources and Blue Ridge Mountain Resources.

Mariner East construction spills 10,000 gallons of drilling mud into Chester County lake - Sunoco’s Mariner East pipeline construction caused an estimated 10,000 gallons of drilling mud, or bentonite clay, to spill into Marsh Creek and Marsh Creek Lake at a state park in Chester County this week.The Department of Environmental Protection has shut down two underground drilling sites, in West Whiteland Township and Upper Uwchlan Township, pending an investigation. West Whiteland resident Ginny Kerslake said that she began to notice drilling mud seeping up onto her yard on Saturday morning, and that by the afternoon it became “a full blown river of mud across my property.”At Marsh Creek State Park in Upper Uwchlan, an estimated 10,000 gallons of drilling mud seeped into the creek and made its way into the lake, according to the DEP. The lake is a popular recreation site and provides drinking water for Chester County residents. It’s unclear whether any drinking water supplies have been or will be affected.Kerslake, who is a member of the pipeline opposition group Del-Chesco United for Public Safety, said she went out on the lake with her paddle boat on Monday.“And as I was going in, it was getting murkier and murkier, and then it looked  An aerial shot of Marsh Creek Lake in Chester County shows muddy water where drilling mud has leaked from pipeline construction. Drilling mud, or bentonite clay, is nontoxic. But in large quantities, it creates cloudiness, which could impact smaller aquatic life like macroinvertabrates. DEP spokesperson Virginia Cain said that there have been no fish kills, but that an investigation into the effects on other aquatic life is ongoing. Officials said there are other affected sites under investigation at an apartment complex in West Whiteland Township.Environmental groups and citizens frustrated with continued incidents like the recent spill have called on the DEP to halt all construction on the Mariner East pipeline. “Sunoco will keep on spilling and keep on polluting our water supplies until they shut down, and DEP has the power to do that,” said Alex Bomstein, an attorney with Clean Air Council, an organization that has sued the company over pollution. “There comes a point where you don’t give second and third and fourth chances.”

Paddle protest at Marsh Creek Lake calls for Mariner East shutdown  - As cleanup crews worked to remove thousands of gallons of drilling mud from a Chester County lake on Wednesday, residents gathered to protest the Mariner East pipeline project, citing a litany of environmental damage. Construction on the line caused about 8,000 gallons of drilling mud to seep into a stream that feeds the lake, which is popular for boating, fishing and birding. Following a rally on the banks of the 530-acre Marsh Creek Lake, several dozen protesters paddled out to the site of a plume of muddy water caused by nearby horizontal directional drilling (HDD). HDD uses bentonite clay, often referred to as drilling mud, to lubricate a large drill bit that bores beneath the surface, making way for the 20-inch pipe. The project, which is mostly complete, includes three separate pipes that carry natural gas liquids from the shale fields of western Pennsylvania to an export terminal in Delaware County. Construction of the line has hit several snags in Chester County, where the karst, or limestone geology, creates difficulties for large-scale industrial projects that use underground drilling. As the boaters paddled closer to the site, they watched as clear water became cloudier. “It’s unbelievable that this actually happened,” said Chris DiGiulio, who lives nearby and regularly paddles on the lake. “We kind of knew it was going to happen though, it’s predictable actually, they’re not following good scientific practices, good engineering practices when it comes to mitigating the risks.” In the distance, a yellow boom was set up to prevent more mud from flowing from the creek to the lake. A helicopter and drone flew overhead. Water from Marsh Creek Lake runs into the Brandywine River, which provides drinking water to residents of Chester County. The Brandywine flows into the Christiana River, and then into the Delaware Bay. The Department of Environmental Protection says there have been no known impacts to drinking water supplies downstream.

Seneca Continuing Appalachian Shut-ins on Weak Natural Gas Prices - Seneca Resources Co. LLC cut its drilling program to one rig in June and continues to curtail Appalachian spot market production as it has for most of its fiscal year because of low natural gas prices. Seneca, National Fuel Gas Co.’s (NFG) upstream affiliate, curtailed 7.3 Bcf production during the fiscal third quarter (3Q2020) “due to sustained low Appalachian pricing. The shut-ins came on top of the 2.7 Bcf the company curtailed in the 2Q2020. NFG said last week it’s assuming New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) prices will average $1.85/MMBtu for the remainder of the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. Given the forward curve and Appalachian basis, NFG said Seneca would likely curtail this year’s remaining 6 Bcf of Pennsylvania production volumes that are exposed to the spot market. The company still produced 56 Bcfe during the quarter, up 1.3 Bcfe from the year-ago period. The gain was primarily related to production from new Marcellus and Utica shale wells.  NFG also released preliminary fiscal 2021 guidance, indicating Seneca should produce 305-335 Bcfe, or 77.5 Bcfe more than in2020. The gain is expected to be driven by new acreage acquired in western and north-central Pennsylvania from Royal Dutch Shell plc. Given the decline in Seneca’s activity this year, both in Appalachia and Kern County, CA, where it has legacy oil operations, capital expenditures for the exploration and production segment are expected to be $290-330 million next year, or $75 million less than this year. Average realized natural gas prices, including hedges, declined by 44 cents from a year ago to $1.92/Mcf.

New poll shows majority of Pennsylvanians oppose fracking - Any conversation around natural-gas drilling, aka fracking, in Pennsylvania and politics is a tinderbox. Many pundits have proclaimed that opposition to fracking is a political taboo in the commonwealth, and some candidates even try to project that an opponent is opposed to fracking for political gain. But those political maneuvers and opinions appear largely out of touch with reality. A new CBS/YouGov poll of Pennsylvanians shows that a slight majority of the state now opposes fracking, with 52% of voters opposed and a corresponding 48% voting in favor of fracking.That goes against the conventional wisdom that politicians can’t run on anti-fracking policies in Pennsylvania. In fact, in fracking-friendly Allegheny County,three political candidates won their primary elections this year while running on strong criticism of fracking and its related industries. Two of those candidates are sure to win the general election in their Democratic heavy districts, and one, Lissa Geiger Shulman, is running in a Republican held-district.State Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale) is one of the most vocal fracking opponents in the state. Her 2020 opponent ran almost exclusively on a pro-fracking platform, and Lee won with 75% of the vote, improving on her 2018 margin of victory by 16 points. The CBS poll also asked which presidential candidate would do a better job at handling the issues surrounding natural-gas and oil exploration, including fracking, but didn’t specify what those issues were. The poll showed that 45% think that President Donald Trump would do a better job, and 42% believe Joe Biden would do a better job. Recent Pennsylvania polls have shown a mixed bag on fracking support, but they appear to show opposition against fracking is growing. In November 2019, a Cook Political Report/Kaiser poll said that 57% of Pennsylvanians opposed a ban on fracking, and that 39% supported a fracking ban. In January of this year, 48% of registered Pennsylvania voters supported a ban on fracking compared to 39% who opposed a ban, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll. That same poll also said that 48% of Pennsylvania voters say they support natural-gas drilling in the state, while 44% oppose.

Duke takes $1.6 billion charge to exit Atlantic Coast natgas pipe - (Reuters) - U.S. energy company Duke Energy Corp said Monday it took a $1.6-billion after-tax charge in the second quarter for the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to North Carolina. Atlantic Coast was the most expensive U.S. gas pipeline under construction when Duke and partner Dominion Energy Inc exited the $8-billion project in July due to regulatory uncertainty following years of delays and billions of dollars of cost overruns. Dominion already took a $2.8 billion charge related to the cancellation. Atlantic Coast is just one of several U.S. oil and gas pipelines mired in legal and regulatory battles with local and environmental groups that have found problems with U.S. permits issued by Trump administration agencies. When Dominion, which led the Atlantic Coast project, started work on the 600-mile (966-km) pipe in the spring of 2018, the company estimated it would cost $6.0-$6.5 billion and be completed in late 2019. Weeks before canceling the project, however, Dominion said it could finish the project in early 2022 only if it received new federal permits soon that would survive court challenges. In addition to regulatory delays, Atlantic Coast was also hurt by a short-term hit to gas demand from coronavirus and a longer-term hit from growing consumer interest in cleaner energy.

BREAKING: DEQ denies key permits for MVP Southgate natural gas pipeline | NC Policy Watch - Another natural gas pipeline in North Carolina has been derailed, at least temporarily, as the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality has denied a water quality permit for the MVP Southgate project that would route through Rockingham and Alamance counties.In a letter released this afternoon, Division of Water Resources Director Danny Smith wrote, “Due to uncertainty surrounding the completion of the MVP Mainline project,” it has determined that “work on the Southgate extension could lead to unnecessary water quality impacts and disturbance of the environment in North Carolina.” MVP Southgate would run from Chatham, Va., and enter North Carolina near Eden, in Rockingham County. From there, it would route nearly 50 miles southeast, cutting through Alamance County and ending in Graham. Construction costs are roughly $470 million. In total, the southern portion would cross 207 streams, three ponds and  temporarily affect 17,726 linear feet of streams, 6,538 square feet of open waters, and 14 acres of wetlands; another 0.02 of an acre of wetlands would be permanently damaged. Nearly 14 acres of riparian buffers would also be affected. MVP Southgate would cross the Dan River, home to endangered and threatened species, and Stony Creek Reservoir, the main drinking water supply for the City of Burlington.  MVP Southgate is an extension of the controversial main Mountain Valley Pipeline project, which runs for 303 miles from a fracked gas operation in northern West Virginia to southern Virginia. The mainline has racked up hundreds of environmental violations and prompted state and federal regulators to issue dozens of stop-work orders. Construction on the main line is currently halted, per a FERC stop-work order. That project’s costs have ballooned to $6.2 billion.  Most of the environmental harm would occur during construction, the division wrote, adding that it “finds it is inappropriate to unnecessarily risk impacting high-quality waters and drinking water supplies of North Carolinians.”Examples of this harm can be seen in the wake of construction of the now-defunct Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which destroyed miles of private farmland and forests in several North Carolina counties, Policy Watch reported on July 30. It’s yet unclear how those environmental harms will be remedied.

North Carolina Denies Key Water Permit to Mountain Valley Pipeline Extension - It's been a bad summer for fracked natural gas pipelines in North Carolina. First, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which would have ended in the state, wascanceled by its owners following years of legal challenges. Now, the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (NC DEQ) has denied a key water permit for a project that would have extended the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline(MVP) 75 miles into the state.  The MVP Southgate project would extend the main Mountain Valley Pipeline from where it now ends in Chatham, Virginia through Eden, North Carolina and ending in Graham, North Carolina, NC Policy Watch explained.To do this, it would have to cross 207 streams and three ponds. These include the Dan River, which is home to endangered species, and the Stony Creek Reservoir, which is the main source of drinking water for the city of Burlington.In issuing its decision Tuesday, NC DEQ ruled the risks to the state's water supply were not worth the trouble, especially since there are doubts over whether the main Mountain Valley Pipeline will ever be built.Construction on the MVP, which would carry fracked natural gas 303 miles from northern West Virginia to southern Virginia, is currently halted by an order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The pipeline has already racked up more than $2 million in fines owing to more than 300 water quality violations in both states, the Natural Resources Defense Council pointed out.While MVP's owner EQT Corporation claims construction on the project is 92 percent completed, a recent analysis of MVP filings with the FERC revealed the project is only around 50 percent finished, Jonathan Sokolow wrote for the Virginia Mercury.But beyond the proposed pipeline's dependence on the uncertain MVP, DEQ Secretary Michael Regan also questioned the need for more natural gas infrastructure in general."North Carolina's clean energy future is not dependent on adding more natural gas infrastructure," Regan said in a statement reported by NC Policy Watch. "Projects like this slow down the state's goal to reduce greenhouse gases under North Carolina's Clean Energy Plan and our efforts to address climate change under Executive Order 80. We should invest in clean, renewable energy sources and the economic benefits of energy innovation."

MVP Southgate natgas pipe startup seen in 2021 despite N.Carolina permit denial (Reuters) - The companies developing the Mountain Valley Southgate natural gas pipeline expansion from Virginia to North Carolina said on Wednesday they continue to target a 2021 startup for the project after North Carolina regulators denied a water permit. The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) denied the permit on Tuesday due to uncertainty around whether Equitrans Midstream Corp will ever complete the $5.4 bllion-$5.7 billion Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) from West Virginia to Virginia. A unit of Equitrans is leading the MVP project. “We are disappointed by the decision,” project spokesperson Shawn Day said, noting “Work on MVP is 92% complete, and that project is targeted to enter service in early 2021.” Mountain Valley is one of several U.S. oil and gas pipelines delayed by regulatory and legal fights with environmental and local groups that found problems with federal permits issued by the Trump administration. Other projects similarly held up include Dominion Energy Inc’s $8 billion Atlantic Coast gas pipe that was canceled in July. The North Carolina rejection caused some analysts to question whether Equitrans will be able to finish Southgate by the end of 2021, if ever. “We are skeptical the DEQ will issue the permit until MVP is fully operating, if ever,” analysts at Height Capital Markets in Washington, D.C., said, noting they expect MVP to enter service in 2021. When Equitrans started construction on MVP in February 2018, it estimated the project would cost about $3.5 billion and enter service by the end of 2018. The 303-mile (488-kilometer) MVP mainline is designed to carry 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shale in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. The 75-mile Southgate extension is designed to carry 0.3 bcfd to Dominion’s North Carolina subsidiary and could be expanded to 0.9 bcfd.

New: DNR finalizing review of Line 5 easement compliance ⋆ After nearly 14 months, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) appears to have wrapped up its intensive review of Canadian oil company Enbridge’s compliance with the key state agreement governing the controversial Line 5 dual oil pipeline. The contents of that review could unlock Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s executive ability to shut down the pipeline, which runs for miles beneath the choppy Straits of Mackinac waters. “We are working with the governor’s office to finalize the review. We don’t know for certain when that process will be complete, but are hopeful it will be soon,” DNR spokesperson Ed Golder told the Advance. Prior to this week, the DNR had maintained that the process was ongoing with no timeline in place for its completion. Whitmer ordered the department to conduct a thorough review of Enbridge’s 1953 easement with the state of Michigan last June, after her negotiations with Enbridge fell through and the company filed a lawsuit against the state. That day — June 27, 2019 — was also when Attorney General Dana Nessel filed a countersuit against Enbridge to decommission Line 5 on grounds of public trust violations. That lawsuit remains ongoing in the Ingham County Circuit Court.

Study: Partial Line 5 shutdown has not impacted gas prices, despite Enbridge warnings ⋆ New research from a former Dow chemical engineer has found that, despite Canadian oil company Enbridge’s predictions otherwise, the continued partial shutdown of its Line 5 pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac has so far not affected gas prices or supply in Michigan or Canada. “For a period of [52] days … there has been no deviation for the price of gasoline in Michigan versus the price of gasoline throughout the U.S.,” the study reads. “…Even the forecast of a small price increase … is proving not to be true.” Enbridge has long warned that there would be dire economic consequences to shutting down Line 5 for any duration. Both legs of the dual underwater pipeline were shut down for roughly eight days total in June, six of which were court-ordered after Attorney General Dana Nessel was granted a temporary restraining order on Line 5. That action was taken as part of Nessel v Enbridge Energy LP, et al., Nessel’s ongoing lawsuit against Enbridge in the Ingham County Circuit Court that seeks a permanent decommissioning of Line 5. Since then, only the west segment of the pipeline has been in operation during the last 52 days as federal regulators at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) investigate significant damage to a support anchor on Line 5’s east leg.

Tribes granted permission to assert treaty rights in Line 5 tunnel case — Four Michigan tribes have been granted permission to participate in a regulatory case involving plans to tunnel the Line 5 pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac, giving three of them an opportunity to formally assert their treaty rights this way for the first time. Administrative Law Judge Dennis Mack this week granted permission for Bay Mills Indian Community, Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, and Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians to formally intervene in the case pending before the Michigan Public Service Commission. Mack also granted the status to the Nottawaseppi Huron Band of the Potawatomi, which is based in Calhoun County near the site of the Line 6B pipeline spill in 2010. That pipeline is also owned by Enbridge. Bay Mills Tribal Attorney Whitney Gravelle said it was a historic decision, and the first time tribes will formally intervene in a case before the MPSC. Moreover, it gives tribes the first opportunity to assert treaty rights in their broader effort to decommission the pipeline. Gravelle said the tribes are “really excited and looking forward” to participating in the case. Tribes’ treaty rights that date back to 1836 — and effectively give them property rights across a wide swath of the Lower Peninsula and the eastern half of the Upper Peninsula — are at the center of their opposition to Line 5, as MiBiz recently reported. “It’s important for people to continue to understand that Line 5 puts the tribal way of life, tribal treaty rights and tribal cultural resources at risk every single day and it’s time to decommission the pipeline,” Gravelle said. The case before the MPSC will determine whether Enbridge can relocate Line 5 to a planned tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac. An agreement reached between Enbridge and the state in the final weeks of Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration outlined the deal, which has since become a strong point of contention for opponents who say it favors a private company over public rights in the Great Lakes. The deal would involve relocating the pipeline, which tribes argue would conflict with their treaty rights in the area.

Could new oil pipeline under St. Clair River soon be out of business? - "Enbridge could very well end up with a lot of great infrastructure in the St. Clair River and nothing going through it," said David Holtz, a spokesperson for Oil and Water Don't Mix, a Traverse City based group opposed to Line 5. That sounds preposterous for a multi-million dollar project that opened July 30. But while there has been no sustained opposition to the installation of new section of Line 5 under the St. Clair River, the section of Line 5 crossing at the Straits of Mackinac has been highly controversial -- its existing twin pipelines along the bottom of the Straits and Enbridge's proposal to build a hard-walled tunnel for a new 30-inch line. Opponents to Line 5 include five First Nation tribes, a slew of environmental organizations, thousands of summer home owners, the Up North tourism industry as well as key political figures , such as Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel. The tunnel in the Straits and the newly drilled crossing under the St. Clair River were both part of a backroom deal struck between Enbridge and lame duck Governor Rick Snyder in November 2017. Together, the two projects would theoretically provide a much greater level of protection to the Great Lakes from an oil spill. But Enbridge's troubled safety record continues the haunt its efforts to upgrade its petroleum transportation system. The company's most salient blemish remains the rupture of Line 6B near Talmadge Creek in 2010, which poured a million barrels of crude oil into the creek and surrounding wetland. The spill reached the Kalamazoo River on its way to becoming the largest inland oil spill in American history. Line 5 opponents include the five tribes that gained rights to their historic fishing grounds in the Straits as a result of the 1836 Treaty of Washington in which they gave the U.S. 14 million acres in the northern lower peninsula and Upper Peninsula as a precondition of Michigan's statehood. The tribes -- the Bay Mills Indian Community, Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, Little River Band of Ottawa Indians, Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians and Sault Ste. Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians -- are organized as the Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority. Apart from a spill, which would automatically violate the treaty, "trenching and tunneling beneath the Straits of Mackinac will have significant adverse effects to the Treaty Fishery in that area, including significant disruptive effects on the bottomlands, water quality, fish spawning shoals and will require disruption of tribal commercial and subsistence fisheries,"

Enbridge Won't Condemn Private Property For Pipeline Reroute In Northern Wisconsin | Wisconsin Public Radio - A Canadian energy firm says it won't seek to condemn private property for a proposed pipeline relocation project in northern Wisconsin because it's reached agreements with around 300 landowners along the route.Enbridge wants to move its Line 5 pipeline after the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa filed a lawsuit to shut down and remove it. The line, which carries up to 23 million gallons of crude oil and natural gas liquids from Superior to Sarnia, Ontario, crosses a 12-mile stretch of the tribe's reservation.The company withdrew its application with the Public Service Commission on Friday. Regulators would have reviewed whether the 40-mile reroute was in the public interest, and Enbridge was set to face a contested case hearing. That is no longer necessary, according to Trent Wetmore, director of Midwest Operations for Enbridge. "We designed and have now acquired an approximate 40-mile route, which will minimize environmental and social impacts while protecting sensitive resources," said Wetmore. Landowners, community members and environmental groups have disputed the company's claims that it can build a pipeline with minimal impacts to the Bad River Watershed, which drains into Lake Superior. They fear the project threatens the water quality of more than 180 waterbodies, as well as groundwater supplies to homes in the area.Bad River Tribal Chairman Mike Wiggins has also said the tribe intends to fight to remove Line 5 from the region due to the significance of the watershed. Enbridge offered the tribe a $30 million settlement, while Bad River asked for $45 million for trespassing in addition to shutting down and removing the pipeline

Q&A: Federal Court Says Lawsuits Against Oil And Gas Companies Should Be Heard In State Court - In the latest development in several parishes’ efforts to sue oil and gas companies over damage to the Louisiana coast, a federal appeals court has said those lawsuits should be heard in state courts.That could pave the way for the trials to finally begin, several years after the lawsuits were first filed.To talk about what this means and what happens next, reporter Travis Lux got all the wonky details from Mark Schleifstein, environment reporter for The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Fifth Circuit says coastal lawsuits belong in state court; critics say case is 'meritless'  – The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit on Monday issued a ruling that two lawsuits seeking to make oil companies pay for alleged damage to south Louisiana’s environment belong in state court. The ruling is considered a victory for the parishes that brought the lawsuits and a setback for the companies, which argued the lawsuits should be heard in federal court. Parishes have filed 42 lawsuits against more than 200 companies. Gov. John Bel Edwards has supported the lawsuits. The plaintiffs say they believe the companies violated state law and state permits while harming the coastal environment, so the cases belong in state court. Critics of the lawsuit said decisions made decades ago were overseen by the federal government and that Monday's ruling has nothing to do with the merits of the cases. “Today’s ruling does nothing to strengthen the factually and legally meritless claims at issue in this litigation," Melissa Landry, speaking on behalf of the legal teams representing BP America Production Company, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil Pipeline Company and Shell, said in a statement. "In whichever forum these cases are ultimately considered, these flawed legal attacks do not advance meaningful solutions to restore our coast." Attorney John Carmouche, who represents many of the local plaintiffs, said the lawsuits allege violations of the Louisiana State and Local Coastal Resources Management Act of 1978 and the plaintiffs are not claiming violations of federal law. “The parish that is affected should rule on if the laws were violated in their parish,” Carmouche told The Center Square in December. But companies argue the parishes’ claims rest in part on actions the companies took during World War II, which raises a federal question. According to the Fifth Circuit, the defendants said they didn’t know about the World War II connection until reading a report Plaquemines Parish commissioned in 2018. The Fifth Circuit found the report restated information the parishes filed before the companies first attempt to remove the cases to federal court in 2013. The companies’ latest attempt to remove the cases is not timely, the court ruled.

Louisiana's oil industry hoping for federal help until global fuel demand rebounds  – Louisiana oil and gas leaders are asking for federal help to get through the worst downturn the state’s industry has seen since the 1980s. In April, an oversupply of oil combined with crashing demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic briefly pushed U.S. oil prices into negative territory for the first time ever. Traders were willing to pay to get rid of oil rather than figure out how to store it. The price has rebounded to about $40 or so per barrel, but that’s not high enough to give companies confidence to invest, said Gifford Briggs, who heads the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association. Recent reports indicate Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil-producing countries may increase production soon, which could bring prices down again, he said. At last count, there were 29 active oil rigs in Louisiana, Briggs said, counting nine in the Gulf of Mexico. In a normal year, there would be between 70 and 100, he said. Louisiana’s many service companies depend heavily on wells being drilled to stay busy. LOGA is asking Congress to consider using stimulus money to plug “orphaned” wells. Since 1993, Louisiana has plugged more than 3,300 abandoned wells at a cost of $128 million. But there are still an estimated 4,200 orphan wells remaining, and Briggs said the number likely is growing. Beyond the environmental benefit, a federally funded program to plug orphan wells could provide work to service companies and allow them to bring laid-off workers back. But it would only be a short-term bandage for an industry that would benefit far more from a robust economic recovery that increased demand for fuel. “We need people going to Disney,” Briggs said. “We need people getting on cruise ships. We need people traveling to conferences.” The oil and gas sector historically has seen many cycles of boom and bust. The current slump reminds many people in the industry of the 1980s crash that devastated Louisiana’s economy, said Lori LeBlanc, vice president of the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association. But she said the industry never really recovered from the last major downturn in 2016.

 LNG Train Starts Up on Gulf Coast - McDermott International Ltd. reported Monday that Train 3 at Cameron LNG has begun commercial operation. Sempra LNG, Total S.E. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and Japan LNG Investment LLC jointly own Cameron LNG, which is located in Hackberry, La., along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. McDermott and Chiyoda have provided engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services for Cameron LNG for the past six years. “This is a major accomplishment,” remarked Samik Mikherjee, McDermott’s group senior vice president for projects, in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. “We share this achievement with our partner, Chiyoda. I want to thank Andy Dadosky, our project director, and the thousands of team members, both past and present, that made it possible.” With three liquefaction trains, Cameron LNG is expected to export 12 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, McDermott noted. In a separate written statement, Cameron LNG pointed out that all major Train 3 construction activities finished earlier this year and began receiving gas flow for testing in late April as the liquefaction plant reached the final stage of commissioning. The complex’s third and final train began producing LNG and shipping commissioning cargoes in May as part of the process to support stabilizing production and performance testing, the joint venture added.

Tellurian Scraps Two LNG Pipelines To Cut Costs - Tellurian is deferring all but one pipelines associated with the first phase of its proposed Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project, the LNG producer said in an investor presentation. Tellurian has been trying to cut costs for its Driftwood LNG production and export terminal on the west bank of the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, in view of the depressed market conditions for natural gas amid the pandemic. Tellurian has achieved cost reductions of 30 percent in its phase 1 planning for the project, including deferring the proposed Permian Global Access Pipeline, the Haynesville Global Access Pipeline, and the Delhi Connector Pipeline, which leaves just one pipeline to feed natural gas to the facility during phase 1. The company will also focus on sourcing cheap natural gas for the project, which has secured all permits and is shovel ready, if Tellurian decides to move ahead with the final investment decision (FID). At the Q2 results release last week, Tellurian’s President and CEO Meg Gentle said: “Tellurian has used the last few months to streamline Driftwood LNG, which is one of the lowest cost projects available globally at approximately $1,000 per tonne.” “Tellurian continues working to secure equity partners from around the globe and looks forward to delivering reliable energy in 2024,” Gentle added. Last month, Tellurian sold $35 million worth of new stock to a group of institutional investors to prop up its finances as the outlook for LNG remains pessimistic. Depressed global LNG demand continues to drive buyers of U.S. LNG to cancel cargoes for loadings in September. Earlier this year, when demand for natural gas across the world plunged due to the pandemic, buyers began to scrap loadings of U.S. LNG, as gas in storage from Europe to Asia was abundant after a milder winter and the coronavirus that wiped out a lot of previously expected demand.

Tellurian drops three gas pipelines from first phase of US LNG export project - — Tellurian will build only one of four proposed pipelines during the first phase of its Driftwood LNG export project if it decides to sanction the US facility, according to an investor presentation the company issued Aug. 12. The sharply scaled back midstream ambitions, combined with a focus on lower cost feedgas supplies, will allow Tellurian to reduce total initial project capital costs by 30%. The moves come amid global market conditions that have led to widespread cargo cancellations at existing US liquefaction terminals this summer and prompted multiple developers of new terminal projects, including Tellurian, to delay final investment decisions until 2021. Also, production cuts in some basins have impacted near-term demand for some proposed natural gas pipelines. Tellurian had long positioned itself as an integrated gas infrastructure company, with plans to produce its own feedgas in the Haynesville Shale and build a network of pipelines to connect those supplies and supplies from the Permian Basin and other plays to its Louisiana export terminal and to serve other customers. While the broader pipeline plans are not dead and can be revisited as market conditions warrant, for now the developer is deferring its 2 Bcf/d Permian Global Access Pipeline and 2 Bcf/d Haynesville Global Access Pipeline, according to the presentation. The company did not mention its proposed 2 Bcf/d Delhi Connector Pipeline in the presentation, but implied that project also has been deferred when it said the first phase of construction will include only the Driftwood terminal and the already permitted 4 Bcf/d Driftwood Pipeline. A spokeswoman declined to comment beyond what was in the presentation, which was posted to the company's website and filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. After the project adjustments, total upstream, Driftwood pipeline, liquefaction and owner's capital costs, based on a Phase 1 contractor guaranteed capacity of 14.4 million mt/year, translate to $1,042/mt, versus $1,473/mt estimated in January, Tellurian said. At full development, about half of the liquefaction terminal's approved 27.6 million mt/year capacity is expected to be used by equity investment partners that Tellurian has been soliciting. The rest would be held by Tellurian to market on its own gas. The equity arrangements would require the partners to make a minimum upfront $500 million equity investment in the holding company that controls the Driftwood terminal and the pipelines that Tellurian builds, in exchange for the right to lift 1 million mt/year of LNG from the export terminal for the life of the facility. EVENTS

Blackstone May Sell Stake in Cheniere -- Brookfield Asset Management Inc.’s infrastructure arm is in talks to acquire Blackstone Group Inc.’s minority stake in liquefied natural gas terminal operator Cheniere Energy Partners LP, according to people familiar with the matter. The alternative asset manager is working with a partner to acquire Blackstone’s interest, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn’t public. No final decision has been made and Brookfield Asset Management could opt to not proceed, they said. Blackstone’s stake is worth about $7.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Representatives for Brookfield Asset Management, Blackstone and Cheniere declined to comment. Cheniere Energy Partners’ units rose as much as 5.7% Tuesday. They closed up 3.1% to $39.00 in New York, giving the company a market value of about $18.9 billion. Cheniere Energy Partners, a limited partnership created by Cheniere Energy Inc., owns the first major U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal. Blackstone agreed to invest about $1.5 billion in the company in 2012. The private equity firm owned 41.2% of the company as of June 30 while Cheniere Energy Inc. owned 48.6%, according to a regulatory filing this month.

U.S. natgas futures drops 4% as output rises, demand slides - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 4% on Monday on forecasts for slightly lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a slow increase in output after prices jumped to a seven-month high last week. Traders noted futures soared last week in part because the market was no longer concerned prices will have to drop later this year to encourage producers to shut wells to prevent stockpiles from reaching tank tops. That is because power generators burned record amounts of gas during the hot summer to keep air conditioners humming and LNG exports are now picking up. Front-month gas futures fell 8.5 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $2.153 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since Dec. 26. Speculators last week boosted their long positions on the NYMEX for an eighth week in a row to their highest since November 2018 on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds when state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns. Data provider Refinitiv said average U.S. production rose to 88.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 88.1 bcfd in July. That is still well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd. U.S. LNG exports in August were on track to rise for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.1 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July, when buyers canceled dozens of cargoes - the most in a month. Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from an average of 89.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week. But that is lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday because last week's higher gas prices will cause some power generators to burn more coal instead of gas. 

U.S. natgas futures rise close to 7-month high on output drop, hot weather - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday rose close to their highest since December on a reduction in output, forecasts for hot weather through late August and an increase in liquefied natural gas exports. Front-month gas futures rose 1.8 cents, up 0.8%, to settle at $2.171 per million British thermal units, putting the contract within a nickel of its highest close since Dec. 26. Looking ahead, futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 traded over the front-month by 18% and 27%, respectively, on hopes energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds from coronavirus lockdowns. U.S. output for Tuesday was on track to fall 2.5 billion cubic feet per day, the most in a day since May, to 87.2 bcfd, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that is subject to change. Traders noted much of that production loss was in West Virginia due to maintenance this week on TC Energy Corp's Mountaineer Xpress pipeline. Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 47% jump in prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in August helped drag U.S. gas up about 22% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG cargoes to go to Europe again for the first time in months. U.S. LNG exports in August were on track to rise for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July, when buyers canceled dozens of cargoes.

-U.S. natgas futures ease as hot weather moderates - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday on forecasts for demand to slowly decline now that the hottest part of the summer is past. That move lower came despite a drop in output this week due to pipeline maintenance and a steady increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Front-month gas futures fell 1.9 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.152 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since the start of August and down about 4% from last week's highest close since December. Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, Wednesday's 5% price drop at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands on Wednesday weighed on U.S. gas. For the month, however, TTF was still up 35%, which made it profitable for more U.S. LNG to go to Europe. U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July. Buyers canceled dozens of cargoes in July, the most of any month so far. Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will slip from an average of 89.3 bcfd this week to 88.8 bcfd next week as the hot weather moderates. U.S. output is on track to fall about 2.2 bcfd to a near one-month low of 87.4 bcfd over the past two days due mostly to maintenance work this week on TC Energy Corp's Mountaineer Xpress pipeline in West Virginia, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that is subject to change later in the day.

US working gas volumes in underground storage rise by 58 Bcf: EIA — Last week's addition to US natural gas in storage proved larger than the market expected, expanding the storage surplus to the five-year average, but Henry Hub winter strip prices held firm as rising demand pushes down the build for the week in progress. US underground natural gas storage inventories increased 58 Bcf to 3.332 Tcf in the week that ended Aug. 7, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration Aug. 13. The injection was larger than the consensus expectations of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts, who were calling for a 51 Bcf build. Responses to the survey were wide, ranging from an injection of 34 Bcf to one of 60 Bcf. The injection was larger than the 51 Bcf build reported during the same week a year ago as well as the five-year average increase of 44 Bcf, according to EIA data. It was also stronger than the 33 Bcf build reported for the week ended July 31. Fundamentals during the reference week were about 3.7 Bcf/d looser from the week before, led by a sharp decline in power burn demand. which was partially offset by gains in industrial and LNG feedgas demand, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Total supplies held steady, falling 200 MMcf/d to average 91.8 Bcf/d for the week. Downstream, total demand was down 3.9 Bcf/d week on week. Power burn demand fell by nearly 5 Bcf/d on the week, though increased deliveries to industrial end users, 300 MMcf/d, and to LNG liquefaction facilities, 700 MMcf/d, helped stem the demand losses. Storage volumes now stand 608 Bcf or 22% above the year-ago level of 2.724 Tcf and 443 Bcf or 15% higher than the five-year average of 2.889 Tcf. Forward NYMEX Henry Hub prices were mostly flat following a slightly larger-than-expected inventory increase reported by the EIA. The September contract added 1 cent to $2.16/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. Balance-of-summer NYMEX has seen notable strengthening in the last week and a half, rising from $1.88/MMBtu at the beginning of August to current levels of around $2.15.

U.S. natgas futures edge up on hot forecasts and lower output - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on Thursday on forecasts for the weather to remain hot and air conditioning demand high over the next two weeks, a slowdown in output and an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That price increase came despite a report showing an expected, bigger-than-usual storage build last week when the weather was milder than now. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities injected 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Aug. 7. That was in line with the 57-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 44 bcf. Front-month gas futures rose 3.0 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.182 per million British thermal units. Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 40% jump in prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in August helped pull U.S. gas up about 21% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG cargoes to go to Europe. U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July. With LNG exports rising and the weather expected to remain hot through the end of August, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will average around 89.6 bcfd this week and next. U.S. output, meanwhile, is on track to fall about 1.8 bcfd to a two-week low of 87.8 bcfd over the past three days due mostly to maintenance work in West Virginia.

U.S. natgas futures soar to 8-month high on hot weather forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared on Friday to their highest since December on rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for the weather to remain hot and air conditioning demand high through the end of August. "Gas prices are moving higher ... as a new surge of buying momentum enters an unsuspecting market," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, noting "There is widespread consensus that warmer than normal temperatures will extend the summer into (September)." Front-month gas futures rose 17.4 cents, or 8.0%, to settle at $2.356 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Dec. 5. That put the contract up 5% for the week after it soared 24% last week. Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 45% jump in prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands so far in August helped pull U.S. gas up about 30% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG cargoes to go to Europe. U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July. With LNG exports rising and the weather expected to remain hot through the end of August, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will increase from an average of 89.7 bcfd this week to 90.1 bcfd next week. Power usage in Texas, meanwhile, is expected to reach a record high on Friday and next-day electric prices in the West rose to their highest in years as a brutal heat wave blankets much of the western half of the country.

Railroad Commission candidate at center of lawsuit over troubled oil and gas waste disposal site - Jim Wright, the Republican nominee for a seat on the Railroad Commission, is a leading player in a controversy over an oil field waste facility in South Texas that involves lawsuits, environmental violations and the candidate securing the release of an $800,000 bond from the agency he hopes to help lead.Wright, a South Texas rancher and oil field service company owner, defeated Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton in the Republican Party primary in March. He faces Democrat Chrysta Castañeda in the November general election for the seat on the agency that regulates the oil and gas industry.Wright developed DeWitt Recyclable Products, about four miles north of Cuero, after receiving a permit in 2012 from the Railroad Commission. In 2014, he sold the project to the Florida company Watson Energy Investments in a $1.3 million deal, but remained listed as president of the company on agency records, court filings show.DeWitt opened in the summer 2016 and was touted as state-of-the-art. The facility was designed to take oil-soaked muds from drilling sites and other waste products and recycle them into crude oil, diesel fuel and clean dirt. The Railroad Commission, however, shut down the facility in Jan. 2017 after an inspector documented waste stockpiled directly on the ground, storage tanks for waste materials leaking onto the ground, and multiple unpermitted pits of waste. Shortly after the facility was shut down, Watson Energy Investments fell behind on its payments to Wright. He excercised an option in the contract to take control of the facility. In a lawsuit filed in March against his former business partners, Wright maintains that Watson still owes him $495,000 of payments from sale and another $180,000 in crude oil royalties..

Texas Hill Country pipeline project moves forward, despite pleas from Willie Nelson and Paul Simon - Houston pipeline operator Kinder Morgan moved forward on a controversial natural gas pipeline through the Texas Hill Country the same day that legendary musicians Willie Nelson and Paul Simon issued a public plea for the company to halt the project. Nelson, also known as the Red-Headed Stranger, and Simon on Tuesday voiced their opposition to the Permian Highway Pipeline in op-ed in the Houston Chronicle. The pipeline is a $2 billion project to move 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the Katy Hub near Houston. Hours after the two musical stars released their op-ed, the Hays County Commissioners Court approved permits allowing the company to bore under three roadways to build the 42-inch pipeline.Now more than 79 percent complete, the last portion of the pipeline that needs to be completed is in the Texas Hill Country, where the company faces opposition from landowners concerned about safety and environmental issues in the picturesque region.“We have chosen the route carefully and paid landowners handsomely for the easements,” Kinder Morgan CEO Steve Kean said in a rebuttal to Nelson and Simon. “We will restore the land when construction is complete and have secured significant additional lands for endangered species habitat.”  Opponents of the project frequently cite a March 28 accident that sent a mixture of clay and water used for drilling into wells in Blanco County.  In his op-ed, Kean said that in addition to paying numerous expenses for affected landowners, the company is rerouting a two-mile portion of the pipeline project in Blanco County.

Operators, state agencies make moves to limit flaring in oil-rich Permian Basin | S&P Global Platts— The crude crash price and subsequent shut-ins across the Permian Basin in the second quarter of 2020 allowed multiple producers to reduce their associated gas flaring volumes, prompting state officials in Texas and New Mexico to strike while the iron was hot and introduce rules to curb the practice permanently.The Texas Railroad Commission, the state agency charged with regulating oil and natural gas production, introduced a revision to Rule 32 Data Sheet intended to limit the exemptions producers use to flare volumes of associated gas. The gas is a by-product produced by operators targeting oil-rich zones in plays such as the Permian and Eagle Ford Shale. Rather than capturing, processing and sending the gas to market, it has been simpler to flare, or burn off, the fuel at the wellhead.Changes to the rule include:

• The period of time for which an operator may obtain an administrative exception to flare gas will be reduced by as much as 80% in some instances
• Incentives will be provided for operators to use technologies to reduce the amount of gas flared
• Operators must provide more specific information to justify the need to flare or vent gas in accordance with commission rules
• Flares would be related to specific production properties to facilitate compliance with reported production
• Tracking the new information and data points will be valuable in any future efforts to tailor policy that addresses flaring.

Public comments on the rule change are being accepted by the TRC at https://rrc.texas.gov/about-us/resource-center/forms/proposed-form-changes. Several major producers have already started making strides to reduce the practice. EOG Resources, along with fellow Permian producers, managed to decrease flaring outputs during Q2 as output dipped."Our gas capture rate now exceeds 99.5%," Ken Boedeker, EOG executive vice president of exploration and production, said during an Aug. 7 earnings call. "To reduce flaring we have introduced a new technique called closed-loop gas capture. We reflow gas back into our wells when a downstream interruption occurs. It allows us to eventually bring the captured gas back to production.""We continue to be the best in the Permian in regards to flaring at less than 1%," said Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield during an earnings call. "This is based on state data from Texas and New Mexico ... Other companies are also striving to reduce flaring intensities. I am confident ... two more gas pipelines coming online next year, along with reduced activity, should help continue to reduce flaring."Sheffield was referring to Permian Highway Pipeline and Whistler Pipeline, which will proved more than 4 Bcf/d of combined takeaway capacity.

Companies offer super-cool solution to flaring gas in the Permian - Permian Basin oil producers, under increasing pressure to reduce the amount of natural gas that they burn during drilling operations, may have found a solution to convert waste gas into a super-cool product.The answer could be small-scale liquefied natural gas plants, which chill the gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit and convert it to liquid that is easier to transport to power plants and other markets. These small-scale plants produce no more than 100,000 gallons of LNG per day, compared to millions of gallons produced at massive LNG processing and export facilities along the Gulf and East coasts.  The technology has been used for decades across to service niche natural gas markets -- such as Northeast, where small-scale plants provide natural gas to power plants during high-demand winter months, or along Florida’s Atlantic coast, where the plants fuel oceangoing vessels.In recent years, a new generation of even smaller LNG units, known as micro-scale plants, have been developed. These units, which produce no more than 10,000 gallons of LNG per day, are small enough to be hauled by trucks to well sites to process natural gas. The small-scale LNG industry has bypassed the Permian, which stretches from West Texas into New Mexico, but that could change as the volumes of natural gas that are burned away remain at or near record levels in the Permian. The practice, known as flaring, has come under increasing scrutiny and criticism, not only for the greenhouse gases and other pollutants spewed into the atmosphere, but also because its wastes a valuable resource.  Between April 2019 and April 2020, oil companies in the Texas portions of the Permian burned away 146 billion cubic feet of natural gas — equivalent to the consumption of two-thirds of Texas households — according to the Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry. The Railroad Commission has done little to rein in flaring — it did not deny a single flaring request of more than 27,000 made over seven years, according to the advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund — but that appears to be changing. The commission has rejected eight flaring permits since February, a spokesman said.

Trump EPA Poised to Weaken Obama Methane Rule, Despite Possibility of Later CRA Overturn - The Trump administration is poised to roll back rules on release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas estimated to be 25 more potent than carbon dioxide and which accounts for about 10% of U.S.  greenhouse gas emissions.The weaker Trump rule, expected no later than Friday, would replace a tougher standard set by his predecessor’s EPA, according to the New York Times. The new rules would eliminate requirements that oil and gas producers have systems and procedures to detect methane leaks in their systems, according to the WSJ: The rule changes will apply to wells drilled since 2016 and going forward, and remove the largest pipelines, storage sites and other parts of the transmission system from EPA oversight of smog and greenhouse-gas emissions. The changes also ease reporting requirements for the industry and, for some facilities, how often a plant must check for leaks of other pollutants, the officials said.The new rules, expected to be signed and issued this week, adopt most of the core elements of two proposals from 2018 and 2019. Agency officials are fulfilling a directive by President Trump to ease regulations on U.S. energy producers, and have said the rules being eliminated are duplicative of other federal and state rules.They were adopted in 2016 under former President Obama amid concerns about methane-gas leaks contributing to climate change.  The 2016 rule was in part a response to the surge in natural gas production, according to the WSJ:As the drilling boom sent natural-gas production surging, the EPA responded in 2016 with requirements for companies to make plans for reducing emissions at new wells and the pipelines they feed. That included regular checks to close leaky valves, pipelines and tanks in the sprawling network covering millions of miles that supplies home furnaces, power plants, industrial sites and other consumers. The Trump administration never seems to have met a fossil fuel regulation it didn’t try to circumvent, eliminate, or weaken. And Trump seeks to roll back every element that he can of his predecessor’s climate change policy –  weak and over-rated as it may be – and of course, in many instances goaded, aided, and abetted by at least some of the producers in the fossil fuel industry.

Rolling Back Obama’s Methane Rules May Give Trump A Bump But It Could Burn Natural Gas - The Trump administration has, ironically, just bucked the wishes of Big Oil by acting today to roll back regulations on methane emissions — the most potent greenhouse gas of them all.The move is political as much as it is ideological: smaller oil and gas producers have been struggling long before the coronavirus hit and as such, they have been clamoring for regulatory relief. At the same time, unconventional oil and gas production is big in two key battleground states this November: Texas and Pennsylvania. And anything that Trump can do to accentuate the differences between himself and Joe Biden could help him in those states. But the move also comes with risks. Companies such as BP, Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM +0.4% and Royal Dutch Shell have already made major investments to capture escaping methane from their pipes and drilling equipment — money that has earned them positive PR and potentially even greater profits. For starters, the methane can be resold and used in the manufacturing and chemical processes. Even more compelling is that those energy producers are banking big on natural gas — a fuel that has about half the carbon content as does coal. But loose methane, which is 80% more potent than CO2, could block the path forward.   “Our federal methane safeguards have been in place since 2016, protecting Americans from unhealthy and climate-damaging pollution. “Eliminating these safeguards would ignore the overwhelming body of scientific evidence documenting the urgent need to reduce methane pollution. And it is also starkly at odds with the broad and diverse set of stakeholders — including some major oil and gas producing companies — that support retaining and strengthening methane safeguards.” The methane rule is part of President Obama’s legacy. He saw natural gas as an essential bridge fuel before renewables could dominate but also as a fuel that would not reach its potential without environmental safeguards. Obama’s goal was to cut the level of methane gas emissions by 40%-45% by the year 2025, from 2012 levels — a policy backed by Biden. If escaping natural gas could be captured and resold, industry could increase its revenues by as much as $188 million a year. ICF International ICFI -1.4% agrees, saying that oil and gas companies could cut their emissions by 40% below the projected 2018 levels.

Methane plume menaces Navajo as EPA weakens safeguards - On a day in late June, Navajo and Pueblo tribal activists met virtually with EPA and White House officials to urge them to reverse a decision that would weaken rules governing the release of methane at oil and gas wells.EPA is preparing to finalize a rule later this month that would significantly lighten requirements for fossil fuel producers and remove the regulations entirely for natural gas transmission and storage facilities.The agency's proposed replacement would permit the industry to conduct fewer searches for methane leaks and reduce remediation for a broad swath of the oil and gas sector. It would also rule out the possibility that older oil and gas wellheads would become subject to regulation in the future.But Native American advocates on a June 30 teleconference stressed that those changes would put their communities at risk by undermining air quality and public health on and near Navajo Nation tribal lands in New Mexico. The region, which has been the site of oil, gas, coal and uranium production for a century, has the highest concentration of methane emissions in the U.S.Julia Bernal of Pueblo Action Alliance said she told officials with EPA and the White House Office of Management and Budget that the federal government had neglected to look at the damage that scrapping the methane rules would do to people in the Four Corners region. The area, which straddles the borders of Utah, New Mexico, Colorado and Arizona, is home to hundreds of thousands of Native Americans."There's already a huge methane cloud that sits over the Four Corners area in the Southwest," Bernal said in an interview. "Indigenous people have raised those concerns. How come that hasn't been addressed?"EPA's removal of federal methane curbs for new oil and gas wells might have an outsize impact on the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico. That's because the Trump administration's rollback is designed to head off future regulations for existing oil and gas infrastructure.The basin is an older oil field that saw declining production even before the coronavirus pandemic caused a massive contraction in the sector this spring. Many of the wells there might not have been covered under EPA's methane rule, known as a new source performance standard, because they're too old.But they would have been regulated under a rule tailored to cover existing infrastructure. If EPA gets its way, that rule may never be written

Democrats unveil bill to penalize gas producers for blowouts ahead of expected Trump methane rollback - Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) unveiled a bill Thursday that aims to hold natural gas producers liable for major leaks. The bill comes the same day that the Trump administration is expected to roll back methane regulations. The legislation would create financial penalties for an uncontrolled leak, known as a blowout, based on the volume of gas, including flared gas, that is released. It would also mandate that companies report blowouts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) within 72 hours and establish a blowout database. “Our legislation holds polluters accountable for large-scale natural gas methane emissions by penalizing those who don’t take measures to prevent them. It’s simple: polluters should pay for the harm they cause,” Van Hollen said in a statement. “We will keep fighting the Trump Administration’s dangerous agenda to roll back protections to our health and environment,” he added. Their legislation comes on the same day that the EPA is expected to eliminate requirements for producers to have systems and processes to find methane leaks, among other measures. Methane, the main element of natural gas, is a greenhouse gas that can be 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in equal quantities, according to the EPA. In 2018, it accounted for nearly 10 percent of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity. The new legislation, which would face an uphill battle in the Republican-led Senate, would also aim to use funds from the blowout penalties to reduce their frequency. In the past, some blowouts have had major environmental impacts. For example, the 2015 Aliso Canyon blowout leaked more than 100,000 tons of methane into the atmosphere.

Biden VP Pick Has Record of Fighting Oil Industry -- Less than two hours after Kamala Harris was named Joe Biden’s running mate, President Donald Trump had cast the California Democrat as an oil industry and fracking foe. “She is against fracking. She’s against petroleum products,” Trump said at a White House news conference Tuesday. “I mean, how do you do that and go into Pennsylvania or Ohio or Oklahoma or the great state of Texas? She’s against fracking. Fracking’s a big deal.” It’s a line Trump will surely use again and again against Harris. Some oil industry figures already fearful of Biden’s environmental agenda worry Harris would bolster his resolve to combat climate change and stifle fossil fuel development, including through regulations making them more expensive to produce. But industry advocates plan to emphasize the importance of oil and gas as an engine driving the U.S. economy and critical to its post-pandemic recovery. “The oil and gas industry represents about 8% of the American economy,” and is “a very important component of our recovery,” American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said by phone. “The world looks a lot different behind the desk in the Oval Office than it does on the campaign trail, and we’re an industry that represents 10 million American workers and will be a key part of that recovery.” The oil and gas industry faces significant headwinds, not least from the historic drop in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Gas companies seeking to build new pipelines have been stymied in court recently, and some economists have argued a more effective recovery plan would involve green-friendly policies. As California attorney general, Harris filed lawsuits against Phillips 66, ConocoPhillips and other oil companies for alleged environmental violations. Her office secured criminal indictments against Plains All American Pipeline LP for a 2015 spill in Santa Barbara, California, which resulted in convictions in 2018, after Harris was elected to the Senate. Harris also has a history of tangling with oil refiners that have operations in California -- a pugilistic approach that could add heft to Biden’s threat to target fossil fuel executives and “put them in jail.” For instance, Harris opposed Chevron Corp.’s planned expansion of a refinery in Richmond on grounds it risked accidents and would exacerbate climate change. And Harris criticized a bid by Valero Energy Corp. to receive rail shipments of crude at its Benecia refinery, emphasizing the risk for spills and explosions along an expected Northern California route.

Massive Refiners Are Turning into Biofuel Plants in the West - The latest sign of a worldwide energy transition: Massive oil refineries across the western U.S. are being converted into biofuel plants. Phillips 66 on Wednesday became the latest in a string of U.S. refiners to say it’s converting an oil refinery in California into a biofuel plant as gasoline loses its luster to fuels derived from agricultural and waste products. The company said its 120,000 barrel-a-day Rodeo refinery near San Francisco will become the world’s biggest plant that makes so-called renewable diesel, as well as gasoline and jet fuel, out of used cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils. The announcement came about a week after fuel giant Marathon Petroleum Corp. said that it may convert two refineries into renewable diesel plants. In June, HollyFrontier Corp. said it would turn its Cheyenne, Wyoming, refinery into a renewable diesel plant by 2022. As refiners across the U.S. struggle with depressed fuel demand and an uncertain future amid the pandemic, California’s fight against global warming is offering a pathway to survival. Demand for so-called renewable diesel is surging in the Golden State where fuel suppliers buy credits from clean energy producers to make up for their emissions as part of a program that’s designed to cut the region’s transportation-related emissions 20% by 2030. “There is overcapacity on the refining market,” Marijn van der Wal, biofuel adviser at Stratas Advisers in Singapore, said in a phone interview Wednesday. “Are we going to shut down our refineries or are we going to repurpose them?” The LCFS credits as well as federal RIN D5 credits and recently reintroduced Blenders Tax Credits generate about $3.32 a gallon in subsidies for renewable diesel producers, sufficient to cover production costs, Van der Wal said in a report last June. “It’s a mind-boggling amount of money,” he said by phone. “You will make a lot of money as long as all these subsidies come in.” The Rodeo plant is well suited for conversion because of its dock and rail access for receiving the tallows, vegetable oils and used cooking oils that will feed into plant, Nik Weinberg-Lynn, manager of renewable energy projects at Phillips 66, said by phone. The facility has two hydrocrackers that are important to the conversion process as well a plentiful supply of hydrogen. In addition, the plant is located where demand is strongest. “The California market for the renewable diesel product is certainly the largest in the world,” he said. Phillips 66 plans to invest $700 million to $800 million in the conversion including constructing pre-treatment facilities, Weinberg-Lynn said. The Rodeo plant could start operating as early as 2024, producing 680 million gallons a year of about 70% renewable diesel, 10% gasoline, and 20% jet fuel, the company said.

The Bakken Boom Goes Bust With No Money to Clean up the Mess - More than a decade ago, fracking took off in the Bakken shale of North Dakota and Montana, but the oil rush that followed has resulted in major environmental damage, risky oil transportation without regulation, pipeline permitting issues, and failure to produce profits. Now, after all of that, the Bakken oil field appears moving toward terminal decline, with the public poised to cover the bill to clean up the mess caused by its ill-fated boom.   In 2008, the U.S. Geological Service (USGS) estimated that the Bakken region held between 3 and 4.3 billion barrels of “undiscovered, technically recoverable oil,” starting a modern-day oil rush. This oil was technically recoverable due to the recent success with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of oil and gas-rich shale, which allowed hydrocarbons trapped in the rock to be pumped out of reservoirs previously unreachable by conventional oil drilling technology. The industry celebrated the discovery of oil in the middle of North America but realized it also posed a problem. A major oil boom requires infrastructure — such as housing for workers, facilities to process the oil and natural gas, and pipelines to carry the products to market — and the Bakken simply didn’t have such infrastructure. North Dakota is a long way from most U.S. refineries and deepwater ports. Its shale definitely held oil and gas, but the area was not prepared to deal with these hydrocarbons once they came out of the ground. Most of the supporting infrastructure was never built — or was built haphazardly — resulting in risks to the public that include industry spills, air and water pollution, and dangerous trains carrying volatile oil out of the Bakken and through their communities. With industry insiders recently commenting that the Bakken region is likely past peak oil production, that infrastructure probably never will be built. Meanwhile, the petro-friendly government of North Dakota has failed to regulate the industry when money was plentiful during the boom, leaving the state with a financial and environmental mess and no way to fund its cleanup during the bust.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- August 12, 2020 - Link here.

• US crude oil in storage: 514.1 million bbls, about 15% above the already fat five-year average;
• US crude oil in storage decreased by a moderate 4.5 million bbls;
• refiners are operating at 81.0% capacity, pretty much unchanged, but up slightly from last report:
• US imported 5.6 million bopd, down by 389,000 bopd from previous week;
• over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million bpd, 20.4% less than the same four-week period last year;
• total products supplied averaged 18.5 million bpd, down by 14.3% from same period last year
• distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million bpd over the past four weeks; down by 9.3% from the same period last year
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million bbls, but still an astounding 24% above the already fat five-year average for this time of the year;
• jet fuel supplied was down 45.8% compared with same four-week period last year; about the same as previous report;

 Oxy Books $6.6B Charge for Second Quarter -- Occidental Petroleum Corp. booked a total impairment of $6.6 billion for the second quarter after the collapse in energy prices reduced the value of several of its assets. The shares fell as much as 3.3% in after-market trading in New York. Almost every large oil and gas company has either taken or warned of massive writedowns after energy markets collapsed in the second quarter, eroding the value of their reserves. With uncertainty over when or if petroleum demand will fully recover and savage spending cuts, the industry is effectively saying large portions of its oil in the ground may never be economically produced. Occidental is struggling with a $40 billion debt burden after its ill-timed purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. last year. The company is currently considering selling assets and refinancing to pay down the $5 billion of debt due next year. The company is in talks to sell operations in Africa and the Middle East to Indonesia’s state-owned PT Pertamina for about $4.5 billion, people familiar with the matter said last month. It’s also running a process to sell land and minerals in Wyoming.

How the coronavirus pandemic is debunking some long-held myths of the energy industry - The coronavirus pandemic has exposed some hard truths to the world's largest oil and gas majors, energy analysts have told CNBC, with many reeling after historic second-quarter losses laid bare the financial frailty of the industry. "Big Oil" companies, referring to the world's largest oil and gas firms, posted huge losses in the three-month period through to June as coronavirus lockdown measures coincided with an unprecedented demand shock. The results were expected to mark the low point of what has already been touted as potentially the worst year in the history of global oil markets. The devastating economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak has prompted energy majors to slash shareholder distributions, rack up increasing levels of debt, and sell or write-down the value of their assets. The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, sought to reassure market participants about the outlook for the energy industry earlier this month. Speaking during an earnings call with investors shortly after the world's largest oil company posted a 50% fall in profits for the first half of its financial year, Nasser said: "The worst is likely behind us." Yet, as energy industry peers warn of significantly lower oil and gas prices through to 2050, others are not so sure. "I like to look at the financials, and the picture has been bleak for this industry for a decade," Kathy Hipple, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told CNBC via telephone. The beleaguered energy sector has fallen 36% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing sector on the S&P 500. The sector has consistently disappointed investors since 2010, Hipple said, with oil and gas companies clearly finding it "increasingly hard" to raise enough cash flow from their operations to cover shareholder distributions. Instead, many cash-strapped energy giants have opted to dig themselves further into debt or sell off their assets in order to cover dividends or share buybacks. "That is financially unsustainable," she continued. "You might be able to get away with that from time to time but that is certainly not a long-term strategy to run a business."

 Oil spill in Venezuela stains treasured Caribbean beaches (AP) — An oil spill in Venezuela has coated a stretch of the crisis-wracked nation’s Caribbean coastline, treasured for its white sand beaches, clusters of small islands and wildlife. Fisherman and locals living around Morrocoy National Park began reporting oil washing ashore last week and it has coated roughly 9 miles (15 kilometers) of beaches. The area popular with tourists is located 180 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital of Caracas. Venezuelan authorities acknowledged the spill, saying they’re containing and cleaning it up, but so they far haven’t said what caused it. The area is near El Palito refinery operated by the struggling state-owned PDVSA oil company, but Environmental Minister Oswaldo Barbera tweeted late Tuesday that a flyover confirmed that the spill did not come from the refinery. He didn’t identify the source, however. Park rangers and volunteers had already collected several bags of spilled oil from the beach, he said, adding that the work continues. “We’ll keep the cleanup going and contain the spilled oil,” Barbera said. “We’re continuing to inspect the areas affected.” Victoria González, general director of the local Azul Foundation environmental organization, called on Venezuela’s prosecutors to launch an investigation into what caused the spill and hold those responsible accountable. She told the local online news source VPI TV on Tuesday that the probe should start with PDVSA. She said the damage could bring a “high environmental cost” to sensitive wildlife.

Mauritius declares environmental emergency after oil spill - The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius has declared a “state of environmental emergency” after a Japanese-owned ship that ran aground offshore days agobegan spilling tons of fuel.The prime minister, Pravind Jugnauth, made the announcement late on Friday as satellite images showed a dark slick spreading in the turquoise waters near environmental areas that the government called “very sensitive”.Mauritius has said the ship was carrying nearly 4,000 tons of fuel and cracks have appeared in its hull.Jugnauth earlier in the day said his government was appealing to France for help, saying the spill “represents a danger” for the country of some 1.3 million people that relies heavily on tourism and has been been hit hard by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.“Our country doesn’t have the skills and expertise to refloat stranded ships, so I have appealed for help from France and president Emmanuel Macron,” he said. “Bad weather has made it impossible to act, and I worry what could happen Sunday when the weather deteriorates.”Jugnauth shared a photo of the vessel, the MV Wakashio, tilted precariously.Video footage posted online showed oily waters lapping at the shore as people peered at the ship in the distance. Online ship trackers showed the Panama-flagged bulk carrier had been en route from China to Brazil.

Mauritius scrambles to counter oil spill from grounded ship - Anxious residents of the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius stuffed fabric sacks with sugar cane leaves Saturday to create makeshift oil spill barriers as tons of fuel leaking from a grounded ship put endangered wildlife in further peril.The government has declared an environmental emergency and France said it was sending help from its nearby Reunion island. Satellite images showed a dark slick spreading in the turquoise waters near wetlands that the government called "very sensitive." "When biodiversity is in peril, there is urgency to act," French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted Saturday. Wildlife workers and volunteers ferried dozens of baby tortoises and rare plants from an island near the spill, Ile aux Aigrettes, to the mainland as fears grew that worsening weather on Sunday could tear the Japanese-owned ship apart along its cracked hull. A French statement from Reunion on Saturday said a military transport aircraft was carrying pollution control equipment to Mauritius and a navy vessel with additional material would set sail for the island nation. Residents and environmentalists alike wondered why authorities didn't act more quickly after the ship ran aground July 25 on a reef. Mauritius says the ship, the MV Wakashio, was carrying nearly 4,000 tons of fuel.. "Why that ship has been sitting for long on that coral reef and nothing being done. This is the country's first oil spill, he said, adding that perhaps no one expected the ship to break apart. For days, residents peered out at the precariously tilted ship as a salvage team arrived and began to work, but ocean waves kept battering the ship."They just hit and hit and hit," Gardenne said.  Cracks in the hull were detected a few days ago and the salvage team was quickly evacuated. Some 400 sea booms were deployed to contain the spill, but they were not enough. Videos posted online have shown oily waters lapping at the mainland, and a man running a stick across the water's surface then lifting it, dripping black goo. The Mauritian Wildlife Foundation is working to free trapped seabirds and turtles.  Environmental group Greenpeace Africa warned that tons of diesel and oil are leaking into the water. It shared video showing Mauritius residents, to chants of "One, two, three!," shoving the makeshift oil barriers into the sea, while crowds of children and adults hurried to make more. "Thousands of species around the pristine lagoons of Blue Bay, Pointe d'Esny and Mahebourg are at risk of drowning in a sea of pollution, with dire consequences for Mauritius' economy, food security and health," said Greenpeace's climate and energy manager, Happy Khambule.

Satellite images show oil spill disaster unfolding in Mauritius: “We will never be able to recover” Anxious residents of the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius stuffed fabric sacks with sugar cane leaves Saturday to create makeshift oil spill barriers as tons of fuel leaking from a grounded ship put endangered wildlife in further peril. The government has declared an environmental emergency and France said it was sending help from its nearby Reunion island. Satellite images showed a dark slick spreading in the turquoise waters near wetlands that the government called "very sensitive." Wildlife workers and volunteers ferried dozens of baby tortoises and rare plants from an island near the spill, Ile aux Aigrettes, to the mainland as fears grew that worsening weather on Sunday could tear the Japanese-owned ship apart along its cracked hull. A French statement from Reunion on Saturday said a military transport aircraft was carrying pollution control equipment to Mauritius and a navy vessel with additional material would set sail for the island nation. Residents and environmentalists alike wondered why authorities didn't act more quickly after the ship ran aground July 25 on a reef. Mauritius says the ship, the MV Wakashio, was carrying nearly 4,000 tons of fuel. "That's the big question," Jean Hugues Gardenne with the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation told The Associated Press. "Why that ship has been sitting for long on that coral reef and nothing being done." This is the country's first oil spill, he said, adding that perhaps no one expected the ship to break apart. For days, residents peered out at the precariously tilted ship as a salvage team arrived and began to work, but ocean waves kept battering the ship. "They just hit and hit and hit," Gardenne said. "All the volunteers are covered black," Sunil Dowarkasing, a former Greenpeace strategist and environmental expert assisting in the clean-up, told AFP from Mahebourg, one of the worst affected areas.

Damaged ship leaking oil off Mauritius could split - A ship that ran aground off Mauritius leaking tonnes of oil into the ocean is cracking, the prime minister said Sunday, threatening an even greater ecological and economic disaster for the island nation. More than 1,000 tonnes of fuel has seeped from the bulk carrier MV Wakashio into the azure sea off southeast Mauritius, befouling the coral reefs, white-sand beaches and pristine lagoons that lure tourists from around the globe. But another 2,500 tonnes remain aboard the stricken vessel, which ran aground on a reef on July 25 but only started oozing from a crack in the hull in the past week. Experts warn a further rupture could unleash a spill that will be beyond catastrophic for the fragile coastal ecosystem upon which Mauritius, and its economy, relies. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said response crews had managed to stymie the leak for now, but were bracing for the worst. "The cracks have grown. The situation is even worse," he told reporters late Sunday. "The risk of the boat breaking in half still exists." Japan said Sunday it would send a six-member expert team to assist with what Mauritius has declared an unprecedented environmental emergency. France also dispatched a naval vessel, a military aircraft and technical advisers from nearby Reunion Island after Mauritius appealed for international help. Thousands of volunteers, many smeared head-to-toe in black sludge, have marshalled along the coastline, stringing together miles of improvised floating barriers made of straw in a desperate attempt to hold back the oily tide. Mitsui OSK Lines, which operates the vessel owned by another Japanese company, promised Sunday to "make all-out efforts to resolve the case". But some fear the damage is already done. Aerial images show the enormity of the disaster, with huge stretches of crystal-clear seas around the marooned cargo ship stained a deep inky black. Thick muck has coated mangrove forests and unspoiled inlets up and down the coastline, exacting irreparable harm and undoing years of painstaking conservation work, environmental activists say.  The opposition has called for the resignation of the environment and fisheries ministers, while volunteers have ignored an official order to leave the clean-up operation to local authorities, donning rubber gloves to sift through the sludge. "People by the thousands are coming together. No one is listening to the government anymore," said Ashok Subron, an environmental activist at Mahebourg, one of the worst-hit areas. "People have realised that they need to take things into their hands. We are here to protect our fauna and flora." Police boarded the Japanese-owned but Panamanian-flagged Wakashio on Sunday and seized the ship's log book and black box as part of investigations into the disaster. The bulker struck a reef at Pointe d'Esny, an ecological jewel fringed by idyllic beaches, colourful reefs, sanctuaries for rare and endemic wildlife, and unique RAMSAR-listed wetlands.

Mauritius races to clean up oil as ship leaking fuel breaks up - Salvage crews raced against time Monday to prevent a second disastrous oil spill off the picture-perfect coastline of Mauritius, with a damaged tanker carrying thousands of tonnes of fuel at risk of splitting apart. The bulk carrier MV Wakashio ran aground on July 25 with 4,000 tonnes of fuel aboard and began seeping oil last week, staining coral reefs, mangrove forests and tranquil lagoons in an unprecedented environmental catastrophe for the archipelago nation. More than 1,000 tonnes has already oozed from the ship, its Japanese operator says, causing untold ecological damage to protected marine parks and fishing grounds that form the backbone of Mauritius' economy. Fuel was being airlifted Monday by helicopter to the shore, but efforts to pump more from the hold were being thwarted by rough seas and strong winds. The weather, which is also fanning the oil slick further up the coast, is not forecast to improve until evening. Some fuel has been removed but 2,500 tonnes still remains aboard, said Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, who warned cracks in the hull were worsening, and there was a very real chance the boat could split. "We are in an advanced fracturing process. The bulk carrier does not have much time ahead of it," said one scientist working on the emergency effort, speaking on condition of anonymity. Divers have reported fresh cracks in the hull, while creaking sounds from the vessel could be heard from the southeast shore, where a major clean-up operation is underway to remove treacly sludge coating miles of Mauritius' unspoiled coastline. Japan on Monday dispatched a six-member team, including members of its coast guard, to assist. A French naval vessel with technical advisers aboard arrived Sunday from nearby Reunion, a French Indian Ocean island. A spokesman at Mitsui OSK Lines, which operates the Wakashio, owned by another Japanese company, Nagashiki Shipping, told AFP it would send a team of experts as soon as Tuesday if they tested negative for coronavirus. "Nagashiki Shipping deeply apologise to the people of Mauritius and will do their utmost protect the environment and mitigate the effects of the pollution," the Wakashio's owner said in a statement Monday. The bulker struck a reef at Pointe d'Esny, an ecological jewel fringed by idyllic beaches, colourful reefs, sanctuaries for rare and endemic wildlife, and protected wetlands.

Sea life around Mauritius dying as Japanese ship oil spill spreads -  (Reuters) - Mauritian volunteers fished dead eels from oily waters on Tuesday as they tried to clean up damage to the Indian Ocean island’s most pristine beaches after a Japanese bulk carrier leaked an estimated 1,000 tonnes of oil.The ship, MV Wakashio, owned by Nagashiki Shipping and operated by Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd, struck a coral reef on Mauritius’ southeast coast on July 25 and began leaking oil last week, raising fears of a major ecological crisis. Activists told Reuters that dead eels were floating in the water and dead starfish were marked by the sticky black liquid. Crabs and seabirds are also dying. “We don’t know what may happen further with the boat, it may crack more,” said clean up volunteer Yvan Luckhun. The MV Wakashio is still holding some 2,000 tonnes of oil and it is expected to eventually break up, Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said late on Monday, warning that the country must brace for the worst. Tourism is a leading part of the Mauritius economy. The government, which declared an emergency on Friday due to the spill, is working with former colonial ruler France to try to remove the oil.The spill has set back two decades worth of restoring the natural wildlife and plants in the lagoon, which started after the government banned sand harvesting in the area back in 2000, said Vikash Tatayah, conservation director at Mauritius Wildlife Foundation, a non-governmental organisation. The fragmentation of the oil in the sea is expected to damage corals when the heavier particles in the oil settle on them, he said, adding that the steps taken by the government to prevent the disaster are also being scrutinised.

UN experts arrive in Mauritius to assist in oil spill -  A team of United Nations experts arrived on the island nation of Mauritius on Tuesday to aid efforts to prevent an oil spill from further damaging its pristine environment. Salvage crews were in a race against the clock as they pumped fuel from the stricken Japanese-owned bulk carrier MV Wakashio, which ran aground on a coral reef last month and began leaking oil five days ago. Authorities have warned the boat could split in two at any moment, with cracks in the hull growing larger by day. The inter-agency United Nations team will "support efforts to mitigate impact of (the) oil spill on natural resources and on (the) population", read a statement from the UN office in Mauritius. Japan has dispatched a six-member team, including members of its coastguard, to assist. Meanwhile France has sent more than 20 tonnes of technical equipment -- including 1.3 kilometres (0.8 miles) of oil containment booms, pumping equipment and protective gear -- along with technical advisers from nearby Reunion, a French Indian Ocean island. The Wakashio ran aground with 4,000 tonnes of fuel, and according to a statement by Mitsui OSK Lines, which operates the Wakashio, some 1,180 tonnes of fuel has leaked into the surrounding powder blue waters. Vashist Seegobin, an ecology and conservation professor at the Mauritius University said that while the amount of fuel seeping from the boat appeared to have slowed, "it is still leaking, we must remain on alert." The bulker struck a reef at Pointe d'Esny, an ecological jewel fringed by idyllic beaches, colourful reefs, sanctuaries for rare and endemic wildlife, and protected wetlands. Thousands of volunteers, many smeared head-to-toe in black sludge, have turned out along the coast since Friday, stringing together miles of improvised floating barriers made of straw in a desperate attempt to hold back the sludge. Mitsui OSK Lines said about 1,800 tonnes of fuel remained onboard the fragile vessel.

Mauritius seeks compensation as oil spill cleanup continues (AP) — Mauritius says it is seeking compensation from the owners of a Japanese ship that spilled oil after it grounded in the shallow waters off the Indian Ocean island nation, while urgent efforts continue to pump out the remaining fuel. The MV Wakashio has spilled 1,000 tons of its cargo of 4,000 tons of oil into the sea, fouling the coastline of Mauritius, including a protected wetlands area. That threatens 35 years of work to restore the area, environmental activists said Wednesday. An estimated 2,500 tons of fuel has been pumped from the ship, stranded on a coral reef at Pointe d’Esny, a sanctuary for rare wildlife. Workers are racing to empty the ship before it breaks up in heavy seas and further pollutes the shore. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said Mauritius will seek compensation for the extensive environmental damage from the Wakashio’s owner, Nagashiki Shipping. He has declared the oil spill a national disaster. Jugnauth’s government is under pressure to explain why it did not take immediate action to empty the ship when it ran aground on July 25. Two weeks later, after pounding by waves, the ship cracked and began leaking. Some of the turquoise waters surrounding Mauritius were stained a muddy black, fouling mangrove wetlands and drenching waterbirds and reptiles with sticky oil. Thousands of Mauritians have been working for days to reduce the damage by making improvised booms from fabric and stuffed with straw and sugar cane leaves to try to contain the oil’s spread. Others have scooped up oil from the shallow waters. It is estimated that nearly 400 tons that spilled have been removed from the sea.

  Mauritius oil spill: Almost all fuel oil pumped out of MV Wakashio - BBC News Almost all the fuel oil from the Japanese-owned ship that has caused a huge oil spill off the coast of Mauritius has been pumped out, Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth has said. The operation had been a race against time, he added, amid fears that the MV Wakashio would break up. The ship, believed to have been carrying 4,000 tonnes of fuel oil, ran aground on a coral reef on 25 July. Mauritius is home to world-renowned coral reefs, and popular with tourists. The fuel has been transferred to shore by helicopter and to another ship owned by the same Japanese firm, Nagashiki Shipping. France has sent a military aircraft with pollution-control equipment from its nearby island of Réunion, while Japan has sent a six-member team to assist the French efforts. The Mauritius coast guard and several police units are also at the site in the south-east of the island. Mr Jugnauth said more than 3,000 of the 4,000 tonnes of oil from the ship's fuel reservoirs had been pumped out. A small amount remained on board elsewhere. Police spokesperson Shiva Cooten said they "still have work to do but the situation is all under control". Earlier, police chief Khemraj Servansing said that cracks in the ship "keep increasing". "It is difficult to say when it will break but we have a boom deployment plan with the French Navy helping and we have made provisions for high sea booms," he said. The MV Wakashio ran aground at Pointe d'Esny, a known sanctuary for rare wildlife. The area also contains wetlands designated as a site of international importance by the Ramsar convention on wetlands.

Mauritius says almost all oil removed from damaged Japanese ship - Nearly all the oil from a damaged Japanese ship that caused a spill off the coast of Mauritius has now been removed, the country's Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said on Wednesday. The prime minister's office also said that everything in the ship's fuel tanks had been removed but there was still residue in parts of the ship. Jugnauth said Mauritius will seek compensation from the ship's owner, Nagashiki Shipping, for the environmental damage it has caused. MV Wakashio, a bulk carrier, has been stranded on a coral reef off the nation's coast for over two weeks now. The vessel ran aground on July 25 and has since leaked an estimated 1,000 tonnes of oil into coral reefs, mangrove forests and protected wetlands. Salvage teams have managed to avert further ecological disaster as the ship is at risk of breaking apart any moment. Jugnauth's government is under pressure to explain why it did not take immediate action to empty the ship. The spill was declared a national disaster and thousands of Mauritians have been working for days by making improvised booms from fabric, stuffed with straw and sugarcane leaves, in attempts to contain the spill. "It was a race against the clock, and I salute the excellent work to prevent another oil spill," said Jugnauth.

Tanker That Caused Mauritius Oil Spill Splits In Two, Sending More Fuel Into Indian Ocean – A ship that ran aground off the coast of Mauritius last month has now split in two, spilling more oil into the Indian Ocean.The Japanese-owned MV Wakashio struck a coral reef on July 25, 12 days before the approximately 4,000 metric tons of oil on board started to spill out into the crystal-clear water. It was estimated the tanker had leaked about 1,300 metric tons of oil into the ocean, but that a split would worsen the ecological disaster. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth previously warned: “The boat can still break in two. “The cracks have developed. The situation is even more serious. “Arrangements have been made so that the part which is already underwater is towed in case of breakage. “The part still out of the water must be stabilized because it is this which contains the bulk of the heavy oil load of the ship.” Oceanographer Vassen Kauppaymuthoo previously warned of the damage if the vessel was to break apart. He told RFI: “The damage we are seeing now is nothing compared to what may happen when the Wakashio will break. “The whole east coast, from Blue Bay to Grand Gaube, will be affected.”

  Mauritius dodges second oil spill as fuel pumped from stricken ship - Mauritius avoided a second catastrophic oil spill Wednesday after salvage crews pumped the remaining fuel from the tanks of a cargo ship that ran aground off its coast, imperiling world-famous wildlife sanctuaries. The stricken vessel threatens to break apart after more than two weeks stranded on a reef, where it leaked more than 1,000 tons of fuel into pristine seas. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth said "all the fuel" had been pumped from reservoirs beneath the MV Wakashio bulk carrier, dodging what experts warned would been a crippling blow to an island nation popular with honeymooners and ecotourists. "It was a race against the clock, and I salute the excellent work to prevent another oil spill," said Jugnauth, who added that another 100 tons still remained elsewhere aboard the Japanese-owned ship. "The weather was calm and it helped the pumping exercise, it also prevented the breakup of the boat, which is inevitable." Mauritius declared an unprecedented environmental emergency last week as the Wakashio, which ran aground on July 25, began seeping oil into a protected marine park boasting unspoiled coral reefs, mangrove forests and endangered species. Jugnauth said the "ecological crisis" was beyond the scope of the tiny Indian Ocean nation, and appealed for urgent international help. France and Japan were among those to answer the call, along with thousands of ordinary Mauritians who volunteered day and night to clean sludge from the picturesque tropical coastline to which their economy is deeply tied.

Massive poisonous shock- Scientists fear lasting impact from Mauritius oil spill (Reuters) - Some corals have lived for centuries at the fringes of Mauritius. Now smothered for days in heavy fuel oil spilled from a wrecked Japanese tanker nearby, parts of those reefs may be in trouble. The full impact of the toxic spill is still unfolding, scientists say. As the Indian Ocean island’s residents scramble to mop up the oil slicks and clumps, they are seeing dead eels and fish floating in the water, as fuel-soaked seabirds limp onto shore. Satellite images also show the 1,000 tonnes of spilled oil spreading northward along the coastline from the spill site in the turquoise waters of Blue Bay Marine Park. The damage, scientists say, could impact Mauritius and its tourism-dependent economy for decades. “This oil spill occurred in one of, if not the most, sensitive areas in Mauritius,” oceanographer and environmental engineer Vassen Kauppaymuthoo told Reuters by telephone from the island, where he was surveying the disaster. “We are talking of decades to recover from this damage, and some of it may never recover.” The wildlife at risk include the seagrasses blanketing sand in the shallow waters, clownfish darting around coral reefs, mangrove trees corralling the coastline with their tangled root systems, and the critically endangered Pink Pigeon, endemic to the island. Giant tortoises slow-walk through a nature reserve on the nearby islet, Ile-aux-Aigrettes, where there is also a scientific research station. Altogether, Blue Bay Marine park counts 38 types of coral and 78 species of fish. The spill brings “a massive poisonous shock to the system,” said Adam Moolna, an environmental scientist from Mauritius who lectures at Keele University in Britain. “This oil will have cascading effects across the webs of life.” The spill came from the Japanese-owned MV Wakashio, which rammed into a reef in the marine park on July 25. It is still unclear why the ship was sailing so closely to the coast. About a week later, oil began gushing from the cracked vessel. A general view shows the bulk carrier ship MV Wakashio, belonging to a Japanese company but Panamanian-flagged, ran aground on a reef, at the Riviere des Creoles, Mauritius August 13, 2020. REUTERS/Reuben Pillay However, the flow had been stopped, authorities say, after they pumped the remaining oil from the ship. On Thursday, the ship’s owner Nagashiki Shipping said it would face up to its liability and assess compensation for the disaster. Already, about 15 km of coastline have been affected by the spill, said Mauritius Marine Conservation Society President Jacqueline Sauzier. “We don’t have the equipment or the expertise to remove the oil, and time is of the essence to limit the damage,” she told Reuters.

Massive poisonous shock- Scientists fear lasting impact from Mauritius oil spill (Reuters) - Some corals have lived for centuries at the fringes of Mauritius. Now smothered for days in heavy fuel oil spilled from a wrecked Japanese tanker nearby, parts of those reefs may be in trouble. The full impact of the toxic spill is still unfolding, scientists say. As the Indian Ocean island’s residents scramble to mop up the oil slicks and clumps, they are seeing dead eels and fish floating in the water, as fuel-soaked seabirds limp onto shore. Satellite images also show the 1,000 tonnes of spilled oil spreading northward along the coastline from the spill site in the turquoise waters of Blue Bay Marine Park. The damage, scientists say, could impact Mauritius and its tourism-dependent economy for decades. “This oil spill occurred in one of, if not the most, sensitive areas in Mauritius,” oceanographer and environmental engineer Vassen Kauppaymuthoo told Reuters by telephone from the island, where he was surveying the disaster. “We are talking of decades to recover from this damage, and some of it may never recover.” The wildlife at risk include the seagrasses blanketing sand in the shallow waters, clownfish darting around coral reefs, mangrove trees corralling the coastline with their tangled root systems, and the critically endangered Pink Pigeon, endemic to the island. Giant tortoises slow-walk through a nature reserve on the nearby islet, Ile-aux-Aigrettes, where there is also a scientific research station. Altogether, Blue Bay Marine park counts 38 types of coral and 78 species of fish. The spill brings “a massive poisonous shock to the system,” said Adam Moolna, an environmental scientist from Mauritius who lectures at Keele University in Britain. “This oil will have cascading effects across the webs of life.” The spill came from the Japanese-owned MV Wakashio, which rammed into a reef in the marine park on July 25. It is still unclear why the ship was sailing so closely to the coast. About a week later, oil began gushing from the cracked vessel. However, the flow had been stopped, authorities say, after they pumped the remaining oil from the ship. On Thursday, the ship’s owner Nagashiki Shipping said it would face up to its liability and assess compensation for the disaster. Already, about 15 km of coastline have been affected by the spill, said Mauritius Marine Conservation Society President Jacqueline Sauzier. “We don’t have the equipment or the expertise to remove the oil, and time is of the essence to limit the damage,” she told Reuters.

  Crude oil suspected to be from Pertamina operation contaminates Thousand Islands... again - Crude oil waste that allegedly leaked from an offshore operation by state-owned energy giant Pertamina has again contaminated the waters of the Thousand Islands regency in Jakarta. On Tuesday morning, residents of Pari Island worked together to clean up the clotted oil waste along the coast. They said they had seen the oil in the waters of Pari and Lancang islands since Friday. The residents suspected the crude oil waste had leaked from Pertamina's drilling operation in Indramayu and Karawang in West Java. “Seeing the currents, the crude oil waste likely originated from the east, to be precise, Karawang waters where oil drilling points are located,” Pari Island Care Forum (FP3) chairman Mustahgfirin said in a statement. He estimated that the oil waste had polluted 2 kilometers of the southern coast of Pari Island. If collected, he said, the waste could reach 50 tons. Pari residents said such pollution had regularly occurred in recent years, especially in the month of August along with easterly currents and winds. When oil spilled from an exploration well called YYA-1 north of Karawang last year, the Thousand Islands administration said the spill had reached seven of its southern islands. Pari was one of them, Mustahgfirin said. Pari residents have raised concerns over the impacts of oil pollution on marine organisms, which the residents depend on for their livelihoods. An FP3 member, Edi Mulyono, said the majority of Pari residents were fishermen, some of whom cultivated seaweed and grouper fish. “The grouper fish that eat the crude oil will die of poisoning, and if the waste sticks to the seaweed blades, they will burn and turn to white,”

 Kuwait Oil Company says it has contained and isolated oil leak - (Reuters) - Kuwait Oil Company said on Wednesday it has contained and isolated the source of an oil leak that occurred on Tuesday night, located near Kilo 18 of the Seventh Ring Road.The incident did not result in any damage or injuries, the company said in a tweet. “The area where the leak occurred is now totally safe and under control, and the company confirms that its regular operations are continuing uninterrupted,” it added.

WTI Futures Rise on US Stimulus Progress - Nearest delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied Monday with the move by the West Texas Intermediate contract above $42 barrel (bbl) on the spot continuous chart spurred by reports of progress in U.S. stimulus talks after President Donald Trump signed executive orders to extend some parts of coronavirus relief.Further boosting the complex, industrial data out of China showed its factory output continued to improve last month as global demand for Chinese manufacturing goods picked up again midsummer, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. China saw its foreign trade gain 6.5% year-on-year in July, with exports and imports up 10.4% and 1.6%, respectively, official data showed. China's fuels consumption has been one of the major drivers of global demand recovery as it exited coronavirus related lockdown prior to many of the Western economies. Domestically, gasoline consumption flattened out in July, the peak month for driving season, which is likely to pressure oil prices in coming weeks. Four-week average demand for the period ended July 31 was 8.6 million barrels per day (bpd), down roughly 9.1% versus last year's levels, according to official data from U.S. Energy Informational Administration. That correlates closely with private mobility data showing little improvement in traffic volumes on U.S. roads over the last four weeks.Oil futures also found some support after U.S. President Donald Trump said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schumer wanted to meet with him to make a deal on coronavirus-related economic relief. That follows a string of executive actions signed over the weekend, which includes extension of the moratorium on evictions, $400 in weekly supplemental unemployment aid and deferral of payroll tax for U.S. businesses. "Fiscal policy has been unbelievably important in supporting the economy. It continues to be important because we have not got control over the virus spread. Another supportive package is really important," said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Monday.

Oil eases as U.S. stimulus hopes dim, virus cases rise - (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 1% on Tuesday after rising earlier in the session as hopes dimmed for a swift stimulus package to relieve the U.S. economy as coronavirus cases increased globally. Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell 49 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $44.50 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 33 cents, or 0.8%, to finish at $41.61 a barrel. Some profit-taking ahead of weekly U.S. oil inventory data weighed on prices. After the markets settled, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude stocks fell by 4 million barrels last week, more than analysts’ expectations of a 2.9 million-barrel draw. Official government data is due on Wednesday. The U.S. Senate’s top Republican and Democrat criticized each others’ approach to coronavirus aid on Tuesday, with no word on when talks on a new package might resume and no movement on benefits for tens of millions who lost jobs in the crisis. “Now there’s doubt coming out on the stimulus package and the Russian news as well,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. President Vladimir Putin claimed on Tuesday Russia had become the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine. But the approval has concerned some experts as the vaccine still must complete final trials. Still, signs of recovering Asian oil demand helped market sentiment. On Sunday, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said he expects oil demand to rebound in Asia as economies open up. China’s factory deflation eased in July, driven by a rise in global oil prices and as industrial activity climbed back towards pre-coronavirus levels, adding to signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Prices also found support from a rally in European stocks, which rose for a third straight session as automakers gained on firm Chinese sales data.

 EIA Raises 2020 Oil Price Forecasts - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2020 average spot price forecasts for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. According to its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on Tuesday, the EIA now sees Brent spot prices averaging $41.42 per barrel and WTI spot prices averaging $38.50 per barrel in 2020. In its previous STEO, the EIA forecasted that Brent spot prices would average $40.50 per barrel and WTI spot prices would average $37.55 per barrel this year. Looking further ahead, the EIA now predicts that Brent spot prices will average $49.53 per barrel in 2021, which is a slight reduction on its previous 2021 projection of $49.70 per barrel. WTI spot prices are expected to average $45.53 per barrel next year, which also marks a slight decrease on the EIA’s previous prediction of $45.70 per barrel. In its latest STEO, the EIA said it expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months. The organization added, however, that as inventories decline into 2021, upward price pressures will increase. The EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in the first half of this year and expects they will decline at a rate of 4.2MMbpd in the second half of 2020, then by 0.8MMbpd in 2021. The organization noted that its latest STEO “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve”.

Light Crude Approaches $42 -- Oil posted the biggest gain in a week in New York amid signs that the U.S. may move forward with another economic stimulus deal that could bolster consumption. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that there are areas where compromise over a massive aid bill is possible and a “fair deal” could be agreed upon. Meanwhile, a recovery in the U.S. is seeing some momentum: new Covid-19 cases have decelerated by the most since the start of the pandemic and applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a pandemic low. Further supporting sentiment, crude demand in Asia is almost back to pre-coronavirus levels, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said Sunday. Prices are supported by a “continued risk appetite,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities. “At least there are signals from Washington that imply growing likelihood that economic stimulus is pending.” Oil is on the precipice of breaking through the top end of the range where it’s been stalling for months, but remains weighed down by the Covid-19 pandemic that’s casting doubt on a sustained economic rebound. Adding to price pressure, the OPEC+ alliance is unleashing crude back onto the market this month following historic output cuts. “We have prices rallying, but it’s probably unlikely they are going to go to new highs,” Melek said. “OPEC has a great amount of spare capacity that they will move into the market along with growth.” West Texas Intermediate for September delivery rose 72 cents to settle at $41.94 a barrel Brent for October settlement climbed 59 cents to end the session at $44.99 a barrel Yet, in a sign of recovering consumption, the quantity of commercial flights around the world rose almost 6% in the seven days to Sunday, according to FlightRadar24 data. The average number of 67,000 planes in the sky was still far below the more than 100,000 pre-Covid.

Crude rises 2% after draw in U.S. oil stocks spurs demand hope -  (Reuters) - Crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday after government data showed U.S. oil inventories fell across the board, bolstering hopes that fuel demand in the world’s biggest economy will withstand the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude LCOc1 settled up 93 cents, or 2.1%, at $45.43 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 oil ended $1.06, or 2.6%, higher at $42.67 a barrel, having dropped 0.8% in the previous session. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as refiners ramped up production and demand improved, a government report showed. U.S. fuel demand rose to 19.37 million barrels per day last week, the highest since March, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. “We’re seeing the demand bounce back,” said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at Price Futures Group. “The market is tightening a lot quicker than people thought.”

Oil Prices Post Gains on Recovery Signal -- Oil closed above a key technical level buoyed by U.S. energy data that suggest a much-awaited recovery in demand is underway as the summer driving season nears an end. Futures in New York rose 2.5% to the highest level in five months, settling above its 200-day moving average for the first time since January. Domestic crude supplies declined over 4 million barrels last week and refineries ratcheted up rates above 80% for the first time since March when the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread lockdowns, according to an Energy Information Administration report. Gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased. “There were pretty high expectations overnight built into the oil market in regard to these draws, and this report pretty much confirmed those,” said Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise. “We had some beef up in demand for gasoline and across the board, refining utilization was up.” Still, investors are keeping an eye on supply levels at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, which have increased each week since early July. U.S. benchmark crude futures are finding support from shrinking stockpiles and expectations for American shale producers to show restraint even as prices creep higher. In fact, U.S. shale oil supply may be 650,000 barrels a day lower than the current estimate of 5.83 million barrels a day by year-end because of slower rig action, according to JBC Energy. West Texas Intermediate for September advanced $1.06 to settle at $42.67 a barrel Brent for October settlement added 93 cents to end the session at $45.43 a barrel The EIA report showed gasoline stockpiles fell by 722,000 barrels last week, while distillate supplies declined by 2.32 million barrels. Stockpiles at Cushing are hovering at just over 53 million barrels, the highest since May.

OPEC trims 2020 oil demand, sees doubts about 2021 on virus fallout - (Reuters) - World oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the coronavirus and there are doubts about next year’s recovery, OPEC forecast on Wednesday, potentially making it harder for the group and its allies to support the market. World oil demand will tumble by 9.06 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago. Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns, allowing demand to recover, fear of new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist. “Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks,” OPEC said in the report. OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 million bpd but said the outlook was subject to large uncertainties that might result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption”, such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels. “Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle making up for lost demand,” OPEC said. “Gasoline demand will face pressure to return to 2019 levels.”

Oil edges lower after OPEC report, U.S. stocks draw supports - (Reuters) - Crude oil prices slipped on Thursday after OPEC said it expected demand for fuels to fall more than expected, although U.S. government data showing a fall in inventories suggested demand is returning despite the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude LCOc1 was down 8 cents at $45.35 a barrel by 0726 GMT, after a gain of around 2% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 oil was down by 4 cents at $42.62 a barrel after gaining 2.6% on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)said in a monthly report that world oil demand will fall by 9.06 million bpd this year, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago. “OPEC released a bearish monthly forecast which indicated that world oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecasted due to the coronavirus and there are doubts about next year’s recovery,” . Still, U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as refiners ramped up production and demand improved, a government report showed. [EIA/S] U.S. fuel demand rose to 19.37 million barrels per day last week, the highest since March, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed, while crude output fell to 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 11 million bpd. Crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell by 4.5 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9 million-barrel drop. The EIA’s downward revision on Tuesday to a key U.S. oil production forecast for this year is helping support prices.

IEA sees lower oil demand in 2020, 2021 on upsurge of coronavirus cases and stalling mobility - The International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand forecasts for the first time in several months on Thursday, as the number of Covid-19 infections remains high and amid ongoing weakness in the aviation sector. In a closely-watched monthly report, the IEA said it now sees global oil demand for 2020 at 91.1 million barrels per day, reflecting a fall of 8.1 million barrels per day year-on-year. This revised forecast is 140,000 barrels per day lower than the IEA's previous projection. The agency also revised down its 2021 global oil demand estimate by 240,000 barrels per day to 97.1 million barrels per day, with jet fuel demand identified as the "major source" of weakness. The report comes shortly after the world's largest oil and gas firms reported historic losses in the second quarter as coronavirus lockdown measures led to an unparalleled demand shock in energy markets. Earlier this year, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters that 2020 may well come to represent the worst year in the history of oil markets. "Recent mobility data suggest the recovery has plateaued in many regions, although Europe, for now, remains on an upward trend," the IEA said in its release Thursday. "For road transport fuels, demand in the first half of 2020 was slightly stronger than anticipated, but for the second half we remain cautious and the upsurge in Covid-19 cases has seen us downgrade our estimates, mainly for gasoline." International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $45.29 on Thursday morning, more than 0.3% lower, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $42.52, down around 0.4%. Oil prices have slipped more than 25% year-to-date. The coronavirus outbreak "has cast a long shadow" over oil demand, the IEA said in its oil market report. The Paris-based energy agency said aviation and transport, both essential components of oil consumption, continued to struggle in the wake of the pandemic. It estimated aviation activity, measured in passenger kilometers, was down by around two-thirds from normal levels in July, typically one of the peak months for air traffic.

Oil slips after IEA lowers 2020 demand forecast - (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Thursday after the International Energy Agency lowered its 2020 oil demand forecast due to unprecedented travel restrictions to fight the coronavirus, but resilience in equities markets and a weak dollar limited losses. Brent crude LCOc1 ended the session down 47 cents, or 1%, at $44.96 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 settled down 43 cents, or 1%, at $42.24 a barrel.The International Energy Agency cut its 2020 oil demand forecast and said reduced air travel due to the pandemic would lower global oil consumption this year by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd).The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that world oil demand will fall by 9.06 million bpd this year, more deeply than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago. “Overall, neither yesterday’s OPEC or today’s IEA release appeared to have much effect on an oil market that is still primarily focused on the ongoing expansion in risk appetite that remains undeterred by lack of progress in formulating a viable U.S. stimulus deal,”

Oil drops 1% after IEA lowers demand forecast - Oil prices eased on Thursday after the International Energy Agency lowered its 2020 oil demand forecast following unprecedented travel restrictions, but resilience in equities markets and a weak dollar limited losses.Brent crude was down 43 cents, or 0.95%, at $45.00 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate settled 43 cents, or 1.01%, lower at $42.24 per barrel.The International Energy Agency cut its 2020 oil demand forecast on Thursday and said reduced air travel because of the COVID-19 pandemic would lower global oil consumption this year by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd).The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also said that world oil demand will fall by 9.06 million bpd this year, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago."Overall, neither yesterday's OPEC or today's IEA release appeared to have much effect on an oil market that is still primarily focused on the ongoing expansion in risk appetite that remains undeterred by lack of progress in formulating a viable U.S. stimulus deal," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.Wall Street has recovered most of the trillions lost during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the S&P 500 remained within striking distance of a record high.The dollar fell to its lowest in a week against a basket of currencies on Thursday. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.Investors across asset classes are still awaiting a breakthrough on a U.S. stimulus package and keeping watch on frayed U.S.-China ties ahead of trade talks on Aug. 15.Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he did not expect hasty decisions on output cuts when a monitoring committee of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, meets next week as the oil market has been stable. Last month OPEC+ eased the cuts to around to 7.7 million bpd until December from a previous reduction of 9.7 million bpd, reflecting a gradual improvement in global oil demand.

Oil prices down on demand worries, growing supply - (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Friday on worries that demand would recover more slowly than expected from COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, while rising supply also overshadowed optimism over falling crude and fuel inventories. This week, two prominent forecasters, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, trimmed their 2020 oil demand forecasts. OPEC and its allies are increasing output this month. “The big-picture question is whether the spread of coronavirus is going to continue to impact on the return of gasoline and diesel demand,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. Brent crude LCOc1 settled at $44.80 a barrel, falling 16 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 settled at $42.01 a barrel, down 23 cents. For the week, Brent was up 0.9% and WTI gained 1.9%.Prices were bolstered earlier in the week by U.S. government data showing crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories falling last week as refiners ramped up production and demand for oil products rose. “If that trend continues, it’s very supportive of prices and should drive prices higher,” The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs, an indicator of future supply, fell this week for a 15th straight week to record lows, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.

Oil slips on demand worries, but U.S. supply declines help solidify weekly price gains - Oil futures finished lower Friday, with pressure attributed in part to downbeat global demand forecasts from major organizations this week, but prices still ended the week higher following declines in U.S. supplies.“Future demand expectations have been dialed back this week” by the Organization of the Energy Information Administration, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency, In a monthly report Thursday, the IEA said it expects 2020 global oil demand to contract by 8.1 million barrels a day to 91.9 million barrels a day, year over year. OPEC’s monthly report issued Wednesday called for a larger fall of 9.1 million barrels a day in 2020 demand growth for global petroleum and liquid fuels to 90.6 million barrels per day, while a monthly report from EIA Tuesday forecast 2020 demand at 93.1 million barrels a day, down 8.1 million from 2019. “The demand outlook remains a function of the virus and where it strikes next, while the impasse in Washington over a relief act creates uncertainty as to its magnitude and impact,” West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 23 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $42.01 a barrel, while the global benchmark, October Brent crude lost 16 cents, or 0.4%, at $44.80 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. For the week, WTI ended 1.9% higher, while Brent gained 0.9%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Oil Prices Finish Higher for the Week -- Oil squeezed out a gain for the second straight week but uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade deal and fears of a resurgent pandemic limited the price rally. Crude futures in New York fell 0.5% Friday, but rose 1.9% for the week. The U.S. and China postponed talks planned for over the weekend that had been aimed at reviewing progress at the six-month mark of their phase-one trade agreement, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, a rebound in U.S. retail sales slowed sharply in July amid a surge in Covid-19 and still-high unemployment cooled the economic recovery. “If China headlines come out and there’s a problem with the meeting that’s going to happen, you could see a push down to the support levels,” for crude futures, said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC. Still, U.S. benchmark crude futures extended their rally to over 4% in the past two weeks, with American crude stockpiles declining after imports from Saudi Arabia dropped and gasoline consumption rising. Adding to support, some data points show bright spots in the economic outlook, with U.S. industrial production increasing for a third straight month in July. But growing signs of a resurgence of the coronavirus has highlighted the patchy recovery in oil consumption. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency downgraded a majority of its demand forecasts for the next 18 months. Meanwhile, the pace of well reactivations in the U.S. has increased since July, according to Rystad Energy, potentially casting a further pall amid a stubborn supply overhang.

 Saudi Aramco’s first-half profits plummet 50% amid pandemic - — Saudi Aramco’s net income plunged by 50% in the first half of the year, according to figures published Sunday, offering a revealing glimpse into the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on one of the world’s biggest oil producers.Profits for the first six months of the year plunged to $23.2 billion, half of last year’s $46.9 billion for the same time period.The results were announced as Aramco’s 2222, -0.30% second quarter earnings dipped to $6.6 billion compared to $24.7 billion during the same time last year, reflecting a staggering 73% drop.The majority state-owned company’s financial health is crucial to Saudi Arabia’s stability. Despite massive efforts by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to diversify the economy, Saudi Arabia still depends heavily on oil exports to fuel government spending.The price of Brent crude BRNV20, +0.02% hovers just under $45 a barrel, significantly less than before the pandemic but up from a low of around $21 a barrel in April.Aramco CEO Amin Nasser acknowledged the company’s finances were impacted by “strong headwinds from reduced demand and lower oil prices” sparked by the pandemic, which halted flights around the world and plunged economies into recession, including Saudi Arabia’s.  The company said it will uphold its commitment to pay out dividends of $18.75 billion for the second quarter as part of its promise to pay $75 billion in annual dividends. Nasser described Aramco’s half-year earnings as “solid” and credited the company’s low production costs and operational strength, which helped it to maintain its promised dividend payments.Looking ahead, Nasser said the energy market is seeing a partial recovery as countries around the world ease restrictions and reboot their economies.

Interpol Supports Murder Charge Against MbS - Barkley Rosser In today’s Washington Post David Ignatius reports that Interpol refused a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to extradite Saad Aljabri to Saudi Arabia from Canada in 2017. MbS had been trying to entice Aljabri to return and had arrested his children, who remain arrested despite complaints from the US government and basically the entire rest of the world. Aljabri was the top aide of MbS’s rival, the former Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Nayef (MbN), who was overthrown by MbS in a coup. Aljabri and MbN were highly regarded by officials in the US of several administrations, as well as other governments, and apparently was personally responsible for blocking a serious possible terrorist attack in the US.After Interpol refused to extradite Aljabri from Toronto, MbS sent a crew to kill him. This was two months after MbS sent such a crew to Istanbul to kill and dismember Kamal Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post.  Aljabri warned the Canadian government they were coming and the team was detained at the Toronto airport, where they were found to have exactly the same implements that were used to dismember Khashoggi. Aljabri is now suing MbS in US courts for trying to kill him.  MbS has claimed that Aljabri stole funds, but Aljabri says this is a false claim.  Ignatius notes that MbS will have to produce his claims, and the big deal here is that up until now the Interpol report was not public.  They refused MbS’s extradition request on this claim, and their report makes it clear that much lies behind their decision, including massive violations of human rights in Saudi Arabia by the murderer, MbS.

  UN appeals for Yemen tanker access to prevent oil leak (Xinhua) -- The United Nations appealed on Monday for access to the derelict tanker, Safer, off Yemen in order to prevent a catastrophic leak of more than 1 million barrels of oil. The Beirut port explosion last week highlights the urgency of resolving the threat of an oil spill from an aging vessel that has had almost no maintenance since 2015, said the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). A major spill would be catastrophic for the environment and would destroy the livelihoods of coastal communities in Yemen. Most of the oil would likely wash up on Yemen's west coast in areas controlled by the Houthi authorities, it said. A spill would also likely force Hodeidah port, Yemen's largest, to close for weeks or months, OCHA said. Since Yemen imports nearly all its food and everything else through the port, there would be devastating consequences for millions of people, including communities located far from the coast. Two months ago, seawater began leaking into the engine room, which could have destabilized and sunk the entire vessel, potentially releasing all the oil into the sea. A temporary fix was applied, but it is unclear how long this might last. The United Nations officially requested the rebel Houthi authorities on July 14 to allow an assessment and initial repair mission to the Safer and now is urging them to expedite the necessary procedures so work can begin. "The main purpose of the mission will be to conduct a technical assessment and undertake whatever initial repairs might be feasible," OCHA said. "Because the Safer has gone so long without maintenance, its current status is not clear." "The technical assessment will provide the scientific evidence we need to determine how best to resolve this challenge in the safest way possible,"

Iran 'Accidentally' Sank Mock US Aircraft Carrier In Wrong Place -- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted a large-scale military exercise in the Persian Gulf in late July, as they showcased their naval capabilities and new weapons. During the exercises, the IRGC was seen attacking a mock U.S. aircraft carrier that was positioned near the Strait of Hormuz.It was expected that Iran would not fully destroy this replica of the U.S.S. Nimitz, as they would use it for future military drills; however, as shown in the photo below, the aircraft carrier is submerged in the Persian Gulf.New imagery from yesterday shows the capsized #IRGC replica of the Nimitz Class Carrier appears to have listed more outside of Bandar Abbas Port, #Iran. She appears more listed here than previous imagery from the 31st July. The depth here is a reported 14m. Fun to reclaim.... pic.twitter.com/tKTHJAaGCS— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) August 2, 2020   As pointed out by South Front, who quoted an expert from the Forbes article that was previously posted about the vessel, this aircraft carrier was not meant to sink. In fact, during the military drills in the Persian Gulf, the IRGC’s soldiers could be seen landing on the aircraft carrier from one of their transport helicopters.“The Iranian armed forces, particularly the IRGC-N (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy) delight in attacking the mock U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. It makes their war games more dramatic. And it may be intended to symbolize that they could, if called upon, sink an American carrier,” the Forbes article said.“The carrier itself, actually an elaborate target barge, is not intended to sink, however. It is meant to be reusable and has been symbolically ‘destroyed’ twice already. But now it really has sunk. And in very much the wrong place,” the report continued.

Iran’s Pact With China Is Bad News for the West – A recently leaked document suggests that China and Iran are entering a 25-year strategic partnership in trade, politics, culture, and security. Cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries is neither new nor recent. Yet what distinguishes this development from others is that both China and Iran have global and regional ambitions, both have confrontational relationships with the United States, and there is a security component to the agreement. The military aspect of the agreement concerns the United States, just as last year’s unprecedented Iran-China-Russia joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman spooked Washington. China’s growing influence in East Asia and Africa has challenged U.S. interests, and the Middle East is the next battlefield on which Beijing can challenge U.S. hegemony—this time through Iran.This is particularly important since the agreement and its implications go beyond the economic sphere and bilateral relations: It operates at the internal, regional, and global level. Internally, the agreement can be an economic lifeline for Iran, saving its sanctions-hit, cash-strapped economy by ensuring the sale of its oil and gas to China. In addition, Iran will be able to use its strategic ties with China as a bargaining chip in any possible future negotiations with the West by taking advantage of its ability to expand China’s footprint in the Persian Gulf. While there are only three months left before the 2020 U.S. presidential election, closer scrutiny of the new Iran-China strategic partnership could jeopardize the possibility of a Republican victory. That’s because the China-Iran strategic partnership proves that the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy has been a failure; not only did it fail to restrain Iran and change its regional behavior, but it pushed Tehran into the arms of Beijing.

Exclusive: How Venezuela lost three oil supertankers to its Chinese partner -  (Reuters) - A shipping joint venture between Venezuela and China has fallen apart in the wake of U.S. sanctions, resulting in the South American nation losing three supertankers at a time when foreign shippers are reluctant to carry its oil, court documents show. PetroChina, which had been state-run Petroleos de Venezuela’s [PDVSA.UL] partner in the Singapore-based joint venture CV Shipping Pte Ltd, took control of the three tankers between January and February, according the documents from a Singapore court reviewed by Reuters. The transfer of the Junin, Boyaca and Carabobo very large crude carriers (VLCC) has not been previously reported. It came after U.S. sanctions on PDVSA left the vessels without insurance, leading to millions of dollars in losses for CV Shipping and prompting PetroChina to place it in bankruptcy. The original purpose of the venture was to ship Venezuelan oil to China and some other export destinations. PDVSA’s loss of the three tankers, which carry each up to 2 million barrels of oil, comes as it is more dependent than ever on its in-house fleet. Washington is intensifying its 18-month campaign to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by sanctioning third-party vessels that transport the OPEC nation’s oil. That has prompted major Greek shipping firms, some of whose vessels have been sanctioned for transporting Venezuelan crude, to stop working with PDVSA, prompting Venezuelan oil exports to collapse.PDVSA has until now managed to retain a fourth VLCC from the venture, the Ayacucho. But a U.S. glass manufacturer seeking to collect a $500 million arbitral award for Venezuela’s 2010 expropriation of two factories is suing in Singapore court to seize that tanker, Reuters reported last week. The dispute marks an unceremonious end to the once-ambitious venture launched in 2008 as oil-hungry China sought to deepen ties with Venezuela under former President Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s predecessor and mentor. China has since drastically scaled back support, contributing to Venezuela’s collapse under Maduro.

U.S. seizes multimillion-dollar Iranian fuel shipment bound for Venezuela— The Justice Department said Friday that federal agents seized a multimillion-dollar Iranian fuel shipment bound for Venezuela, in what it described as the largest-ever seizure of its kind. The U.S., with the assistance of foreign partners, confiscated a total of 1.1 million barrels of petroleum from four foreign-flagged oil tankers, as Tehran and Caracas attempt to sidestep U.S. sanctions. According to the Justice Department, after the seizure, "Iran's navy forcibly boarded an unrelated ship in an apparent attempt to recover the seized petroleum but was unsuccessful." Footage released by Central Command, the U.S. military's combatant command that oversees the wars in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, shows the failed Iranian operation. "We are seeing more and more global shipping fleets avoiding the Iran-Venezuela trade due to our sanctions implementation and enforcement efforts," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus wrote in a statement. "The United States remains committed to our maximum pressure campaigns against the Iranian and Maduro regimes," she added. In June, five Iranian oil tankers brought approximately 1.5 million barrels to gas-starved Venezuela, which was once a prominent fuel exporter. Gasoline is scarce in the South American nation due to a near-complete breakdown of the OPEC nation's 1.3 million barrel-per-day refining network. The two OPEC nations have previously helped each other in the face of U.S. sanctions. In 2010-2011, Venezuela's state-run oil company, PDVSA, sent fuel to Iran, which was targeted by sanctions aimed at stifling its nuclear weapons program. Venezuela — once the crown jewel of Latin America's developing economy — has hit dire straits in recent years. The price of oil, the country's biggest export, has plummeted more than 60% since Nicolas Maduro succeeded dictator Hugo Chavez as Venezuela's president in 2013. Earlier this year, U.S. crude prices briefly traded in negative territory for the first time ever as the coronavirus dented the global economic growth outlook. The drop in oil prices coupled with a massive depreciation of the Venezuelan bolivar and sky-high inflation have left Venezuela scrambling for cash, food, medicine and other essentials.

 Greek Warships Are Reportedly Near Turkish Exploration Vessel Actively Disrupting Seismic Signal - Greek national media reported on Tuesday, that the Greek Armed Forces are on high alert, at a time when the eastern Mediterranean region is witnessing tensions with Turkey due to its eastern Mediterranean oil and gas exploration.The Greek newspaper Ekathimirini reports that “Greece’s armed forces were placed in a state of absolute readiness, with units of the Hellenic Navy and Air Force deployed in the wider sea area where the Turkish research was expected.” This moves comes at a time when the Turkish Navy is escorting the seismic exploration vessel, Oruc Reis, near or within Cypriot and Greek territorial waters, which is currently being closely monitored by Egypt and Greece.On Monday, the Turkish Navy issued a navigational notification saying that the Turkish vessel would conduct seismic surveys in the eastern Mediterranean during the next two weeks.In response, the Greek Foreign Ministry announced that Athens had urged Turkey to stop illegal actions in the eastern Mediterranean, and that these activities were provocative and undermine peace and security in the region.“Greece will not accept blackmail. It will defend its sovereign rights,” the Greek foreign ministry statement said.

You'll Never Guess Which Country Has The Most Widespread Adoption Of Crypto In The World - Reliance on remittances and the prevalence of peer-to-peer phone payments have led to a steep rise of cryptocurrency use in Africa's largest economy. As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, out of 65 countries in the Statista Global Consumer Survey, Nigerians were the most likely to say they used or owned cryptocurrency.Almost a third of Nigerians said this applied to them.The high cost of sending money across borders the conventional way has caused many to turn to local cryptocurrency exchanges catering to overseas workers and their families, according to Bitcoin.com. Nigerians also often use their phones to send money to each other also to pay in shops. Recently, businesses in the country have been adding crypto plugins to their phone payment options, adding another way in which Nigerians can use cryptocurrency in their everyday lives.

John McAfee Arrested For Wearing A Woman's Thong As A Facemask In Germany - John McAfee, former founder of McAfee Antivirus Software, was reportedly arrested in Germany for making an unwelcome fashion statement with his face cover when he wore a woman's thong - instead of a face mask - over his head. McAfee tweeted out on Monday that he had been detained because he wouldn't put on a medically certified mask instead of the thong. He wrote: "Visited Catalonia just before Europe banned Catalonians from travelling. Tried to return to Germany and were refused entrance. They demanded we wear masks. I put on my thong mask. They demanded I replace it. I refused. Tussle. Jail. Black eye. Released."

Air travel is recovering slower than expected, energy agency says. - The New York Times - A global “stalling of mobility,” especially in air travel, has prompted the International Energy Agency to make a slight downgrade in its forecast for oil demand in 2020. The agency said Thursday that demand would fall by 8.1 million barrels a day in 2020, 140,000 barrels lower than last month’s prediction.“The aviation and road transport sectors, both essential components of oil consumption, are continuing to struggle,” the Paris-based forecasting group said in its monthly Oil Market Report. Overall, the I.E.A. predicts a roughly 8 percent decline in oil demand this year compared with 2019.Air travel, in particular, is recovering slower than expected because of border closures and other restrictions. Aviation mileage was down 67 percent in July compared with a year before, only a modest recovery from the 80 percent decline in April. The agency also said that it did not expect the picture would improve “significantly soon,” and was now forecasting a 39 percent fall in jet fuel consumption for 2020 compared with 2019, while 2021 would also see only a gradual recovery.Some areas are recovering faster. In China, demand for oil in June rose by 750,000 barrels a day compared with the same period a year before, “a remarkable feat,” the agency said.

Germany reopens its schools: An experiment in herd immunity -- Although there are currently more than 1,000 new coronavirus infections per day in Germany, all of the country’s state governments are ruthlessly enforcing school openings after the summer break. This can only be called an experiment in “herd immunity”—a policy with potentially lethal consequences for children, teachers, teaching assistants and their families. Last Thursday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 1,045 new infections and on Friday 1,147 new infections. These figures refer to infections measured about 10 days ago. This means that the current rate of infection is very likely much higher. There are over 19 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, more than 712,000 people have already died, and in Germany the number of deaths rose to 9,183 on Friday. In this situation, all state governments are determined to send children back to school without restrictions. This is despite the fact that the increase in new infections has reached a level equivalent to that of mid-March 2020, when all schools and day-care centres were closed and the lockdown was imposed. Now, however, all of these facilities are being reopened. The goal is very clear: get the population back to work so that profit-making can resume and stock markets can soar even higher. Politicians of all stripes and business representatives leave no doubt about their intentions. What politicians, managers and journalist are demanding are conditions that will lead to thousands of illnesses and deaths. Just to recall, it was school closures in particular that helped to contain the pandemic initially and prevent deaths. As the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) documented in a study, in the last two weeks of March about 40,600 lives were saved thanks to the closure of schools worldwide. Without the four weeks of school closures from mid-March to mid-April, nearly 1.4 million more people would have been infected worldwide. On Friday it was announced that there have already been cases of coronavirus at a minimum of at least two schools in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where classes recommenced last Monday. After a high school teacher in Ludwigslust and a primary school pupil in Graal-Müritz tested positive, both schools had to be closed again. In Hamburg, where classes restarted last Thursday, the number of COVID-19 infections is rising sharply. According to official figures, there were 80 new cases from Thursday to Friday. In addition to a number of persons returning from travel, workers at the Hamburg shipyard Blohm+Voss have tested positive. On Wednesday, 60 new infections were detected among shipyard workers and employees of contractors at the shipyard.

French government ends social distancing requirements in schools as classes set to resume - The Macron administration has released new guidelines for school reopenings at the beginning of September that slash social-distancing requirements for teachers and students. The document was quietly produced on July 9 and reportedly circulated to educational institutions on July 20, without any public announcements. Media reports cited the document for the first time over the weekend. The new guidelines state that “in closed areas (classrooms, workshops, libraries, canteens, boarding rooms, etc.), physical distancing is no longer obligatory where it is not physically possible or would not permit the return of all students.” As many teachers have commented on social media, since classrooms typically contain up to 35 students, the rule that distancing will be eliminated if “is not physically possible” for the return of all students means it will apply nowhere. Students above 11 years old are required to wear masks if they cannot maintain a distance of one meter from one another. Teachers are only required to wear a mask if they are “less than one meter” from students. This directly contradicts scientific evidence that the virus spreads via aerosolized particles which spread far further than one meter in the air. The new guidelines add an exception for teachers in crèches for young children, who are no longer required to wear a mask under any conditions. There are also no longer any restrictions on inter-mixing of students in different classrooms or year levels, which otherwise limit the spread of the virus among students inside the same school. The guidelines simply state that schools “organize the daily schedule and activities to limit, as much as possible, large mixing and crossings.” There is no requirement that additional public transportation be organized to limit physical contact between students. This analysis of the back-to-school plans makes clear the fraudulent and essentially homicidal character of the Macron administration’s policy. The government is pursuing this policy well aware that it will accelerate the ongoing resurgence of the virus once schools reopen in September. Students will become infected; their parents, family members and teachers will catch the virus from them; and many more people will die due to these policies.

 King Juan Carlos flees Spain to avoid corruption probe - Former King Juan Carlos I de Borbón, who reigned from November 1975 until his abdication in June 2014, has fled Spain to evade investigation on charges on kickbacks and fraud. Last week, the Royal Family posted a letter by Juan Carlos I to his son, King Felipe VI, informing him of his “well-considered decision to leave Spain”, adding: “It is a decision I take, with deep feeling but great calm. I was king of Spain for 40 years, and during all those years I have always wanted the best for Spain and the Crown.” Now Juan Carlos has fled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where he reportedly occupies an entire floor at Abu Dhabi's five-star Emirates Palace hotel, under the protection of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. Juan Carlos’ departure is a humiliation for the Spanish ruling class and comes amid mounting infighting in the European bourgeoisie. Backed by Washington and the European Union, he was promoted as a leader who led Spain from fascism to democracy after dictator Francisco Franco’s death in 1975—stopping a military coup in 1981 and serving as head of state for nearly 40 years. His decision to flee Spain like a thief, to avoid a corruption probe after Swiss and Spanish prosecutors opened an investigation of his Swiss bank accounts, exposes the entire regime. The crisis erupted two years ago when a British conservative newspaper, the Telegraph, leaked recordings of Juan Carlos’ mistress, businesswoman Corinna zu Sayn-Wittgenstein-Sayn, speaking to retired Spanish police chief José Manuel Villarejo. Villarejo is currently in jail awaiting trial over “Operation Tandem,” an investigation into two decades of illegal phone taps and other invasions of privacy on behalf of wealthy clients, corporations and banks against politicians, businessmen, judges and journalists. Sayn-Wittgenstein claims Juan Carlos received kick-backs from commercial contracts in the Gulf States for the construction of the €6.7 billion Haramain high-speed railway in Saudi Arabia and kept the cash in a bank account in Switzerland. She also claims the head of the Spanish intelligence threatened her life and those of her children if she spoke of her ties to Juan Carlos. The Spanish judiciary intervened to shelve the investigation. Prosecutors claimed the activities mentioned in the conversation occurred before Juan Carlos’s abdication, when he was still immune from prosecution. Almost simultaneously, Swiss prosecutors opened an investigation into a multi-million-euro donation received by Sayn-Wittgenstein from a Swiss bank account. She told investigators that the money was a donation from the former Spanish monarch.

U.K. Economy Shrinks by More Than Any Other Rich Country – WSJ —The U.K. recorded a steeper second-quarter contraction than its peers, a performance that means it suffered the worst economic hit from the coronavirus in Europe as well as reporting the highest death toll. The economy is already recovering as restrictions on daily life ease and workers trickle back to factories and offices, recent data show, but Bank of England officials have warned that it could take until the end of 2021 to regain the ground lost during the pandemic. U.K. gross domestic product shrank 20.4% in the second quarter, equivalent to an annualized rate of 59.8%, the country’s statistics agency said Wednesday. Over the same period, the U.S. and Germany lost around 10% of their output, with Italy losing 12%, France 14% and Spain 19%.